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Consequences of modernisation in Botswana : lessons and alternatives for the livestock sector Keatimilwe, Kagiso P. 1990

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C O N S E Q U E N C E S O F M O D E R N I S A T I O N IN B O T S W A N A : L E S S O N S A N D A L T E R N A T I V E S F O R T H E L I V E S T O C K S E C T O R by KAGISO P. KEATIMILWE B.Sc. (Hons) Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, 1985 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN PLANNING in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA 11 July 1990 © KAGISO P. KEATIMILWE, 1990 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of CO*»»tu**iT j / rt/*>Q <2*e<atQAjt) L P^rtASKfttsc, The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Date / f l ^Jucju^t /</Q DE-6 (2/88) ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the effects of post-independence modernisation policies within the cattle sector in Botswana and to suggest alternative ways of dealing with the challenge of development. The study pursues four research objectives which are: 1. to examine the environmental effects of cattle production by discussing the impacts of policies on disease control as well as changes in rangeland condition; 2. to discuss the social impacts of the modernisation approach to development by examining data on the distribution of cattle, the financial returns that accrue to owners, and the level of subsidies which the sector receives from the government; 3. to determine the degree of vulnerability of the Botswana cattle sector to decisions made outside the country by investigating the influence of the EEC and certain environmental groups on the beef industry. 4. to suggest a set of principles aimed at making development more ecologically sensitive, more beneficial to most people, and more self-reliant in terms of economic and political decisions. Modernisation theory according to Hirschman and Rostow contends that inter-dependence with capitalist economies is a prerequisite for development (primarily defined as economic growth and not addressing environmental issues); that the accumulation of wealth will lead to the reduction of poverty; and that ii all countries can benefit from the development process. By contrast, Dependency theory according to authors including Prebisch, Frank, Amin, and Sunkel has argued that inter-dependence with capitalist economies retards development; that the national accumulation of wealth does not lead to improved living conditions for much of the population; and that there is little prospect for economic growth in the peripheral countries. The analysis of policies and measures adopted by the Botswana government involving land reform, disease control, pricing and marketing policies and the use of subsidies reveals that economic growth and access to markets have been attained at the expense of both environmental quality and equity. Future policy for the livestock sector cannot ignore criticism of these impacts without jeopardising the beef trade which has largely been determined by the EEC. This European Community influence raises questions about the extent to which Botswana is in control of her development policy. Drawing largely from the work of Gardner, the thesis addresses the above concerns by suggesting a set of policy guidelines which identify both the ends and means of decision-making. This framework recognises that the goals of development must include ecological sustainability and economic and political self-reliance in addition to material benefits. Although it recognises the magnitude of the development problems, the thesis concludes by suggesting specific issues which should be investigated to improve living conditions in the country. in T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S Abstract ii Table of Contents iv List of Tables vi List of Figures vii Acknowledgements viii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Purpose 1 1.2. Objectives 1 1.3. Rationale 2 1.4. Framework for Analysis 2 1.5. Development Theory as Applied to Botswana 3 Chapter 2. Theories of Development 5 2.1. The Roots of Modernisation 5 2.2. Arguments of Modernisation Theory 6 2.2.1. Inter-dependence With Capitalist Economies 7 2.2.2. Development and the Accumulation of Wealth 8 2.2.3. Prospects for Economic Growth 10 2.3. The Emergence of Dependency Theory 13 2.3.1. The Results of Inter-dependence 15 2.3.2. Economic Growth in the Periphery 16 2.3.3. Economic Growth and Living Conditions 19 Chapter 3. Development of the Livestock Sector 21 3.1. The Context of Development Policies 21 3.1.1. The Natural Environment 21 3.1.2. Society 23 3.1.3. The Economy 24 3.1.4. Politics 28 3.2. Policies for the Cattle Sector 30 3.2.1. Land Reform 30 3.2.2. Disease Control 34 3.2.3. Subsidies, Pricing and Marketing Policies 36 Chapter 4. Impacts of Policies 43 4.1. Socio-Economic Impacts 43 4.1.1. Social Consequences of Land Reform 43 4.1.2. Subsidies and Producer Prices 46 4.1.3. Cattle Distribution and Living Standards 48 4.2. Environmental Impacts 54 4.2.1. Prices and Growth of the Cattle Population 54 4.2.2. Condition of Grazing Land 56 4.2.3. Impact of Veterinary Fences on Wildlife 61 iv 4.2.4. Consequences of the Use of Chemicals 63 4.3. Dependence 64 4.3.1. Instability of External Markets 64 4.3.2. Questions on Commitment to Conservation 67 4.4. Recent Developments 69 Chapter 5. Rethinking Development 73 5.1. Satisfaction of Human Needs 74 5.2. Maintenance of Ecological Integrity 75 5.3. Achievement of Equity and Social Justice 76 5.4. Provision for Social Self-determination 77 5.5. Goal Seeking 80 5.6. Relational or Systems Oriented 82 5.7.. Adaptive 83 5.8. Interactive 83 Chapter 6. Conclusion and Recommendations 85 6.1. Areas for Investigation 87 Bibliography 91 Appendix 1: Structuralist Critiques of Modernisation 101 Appendix 2: Challenges to Dependency Theory 103 v LIST OF TABLES Table I. European Community Levy Rebate (1979/80-1988) 38 Table II. Development Expenditure for Agriculture (NDP 5 and 6) 40 Table III. Revenue and Expenditure for the Cattle Sector (1977-81, 1985-89) ..42 Table IV. Livestock Herds (1972-1984) 49 Table V. Encroachment of Thornbush (1950-1975) 60 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Botswana: Annual Rainfall 22 Figure 2. Location of Veterinary Fences 35 Figure 3. Average Floor Price for Beef (1980-89) 46 Figure 4. Payments to Cattle Producers (1980-1989) 47 Figure 5. Income From Crops (1984-1989) ..51 Figure 6. Distribution of Rural Income (1975) 52 Figure 7. Cattle Population (1966-1988) 55 Figure 8. Rangeland Degradation (1984) 58 Figure 9. Destination of Beef Exports 66 vii A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S I am grateful for the guidance provided by my supervisors: Geoffrey Hainsworth (University of British Columbia Department of Economics), William Rees and Peter Boothroyd (both of the University of British Columbia School of Community and Regional Planning). I also appreciate the support of my family in Botswana, as well as the assistance given by Vincent Seretse in Gaborone and Jaap Arntzen at the Free University, Amsterdam. viii C H A P T E R 1. I N T R O D U C T I O N 1.1. P U R P O S E The cattle sector in Botswana is a major component of the nation's economy and has been considered an engine of economic growth and development. It has therefore been a major focus of government development policy and target for subsidies. These policies, however, have failed to produce the anticipated results. The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the effects of post-independence 'modernisation' policies within the cattle sector in Botswana, and to suggest alternative ways of dealing with the challenge of development. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that the goals of development must go beyond material improvement to include ecological sustainability and economic and political self-reliance. 1.2. O B J E C T I V E S Four research objectives are pursued by the study. These are: 1. to examine the environmental effects of cattle production by discussing policies on disease control as well as changes in rangeland condition; 2. to analyse the social and economic impacts of policies for the livestock sector using data on the distribution of cattle, the financial returns that accrue to owners, and the level of subsidies which the sector receives from 1 Introduction / 2 the government; 3. to determine the degree of vulnerability of the Botswana cattle sector to decisions made outside the country by investigating the influence of the EEC and certain environmental groups on the beef industry. 4. to suggest a set of principles aimed at making development more ecologically sensitive, more beneficial to most people, and more self-reliant in terms of economic and political decisions. 1.3. R A T I O N A L E This subject was selected for two reasons. First, cattle is the economic sector in which the greatest number of citizens are involved. Second, overgrazing by cattle is the biggest environmental problem in the country. Thus the livelihood of a large part of the population is closely related to the benefits from raising cattle, but these may be reduced in the long term by the declining capacity of the land. 1.4. F R A M E W O R K F O R A N A L Y S I S Although the modernisation paradigm has been widely adopted as a theory of development, there is debate on whether it is an appropriate theory of development for countries such as Botswana. A significant part of the criticism of modernisation theory has come from dependency theorists such as Raul Prebisch (1971), Andre Gunder Frank (1966;1981), Samir Amin (1971;1976), and Osvaldo Sunkel (1973). The dependency school addresses three issues which are relevant Introduction / 3 to Botswana. These are the results of inter-dependence with capitalist economies, the relationship between the accumulation of wealth and improved living conditions, and the prospects for economic growth in the periphery. The thesis analyses the modernisation policies from this perspective. 1.5. D E V E L O P M E N T T H E O R Y A S A P P L I E D T O B O T S W A N A Modernisation theory as propounded by Rostow (1960), and Hirschman (1958) sought to explain what development was and how it should occur. Its proponents have stressed the importance of inter-dependence with capitalist economies, argued that development requires the accumulation of wealth, and stated that development is possible in all countries. Since independence in 1966, the objectives of development and the strategy for their attainment in Botswana have reflected the principles of modernisation theory. From the outset, the government defined development as the attainment of the following objectives: 1. social justice, 2. rapid economic growth, 3. economic independence, and 4. sustained development (Cited in Botswana Government, 1985:56). The first objective was based on the tradition, of Botswana, while the others reflected contemporary ideas on development. All four objectives were to be attained through a strategy which would create large and quick financial returns Introduction / 4 from various economic sectors mainly aimed at export markets. It was expected that these returns would subsequently be re-invested in labour-intensive activities as well as in rural services (Botswana Government, 19 72:2). This strategy is significant because of its potential implications for dependence on foreign interests, and vulnerability to external world events. Policies and measures based on the stated development strategy applied within the cattle sector relate to land reform, disease control, subsidies, pricing and marketing. These policies were intended to (a) stop land degradation and ensure sustainability of cattle production, (b) improve incomes from livestock and, consequently, living standards, and (c) minimise cattle disease primarily in order to maintain access for beef exports to the European Community. The policies have been successful in attaining economic growth and containing cattle disease. However, they have also produced negative social and environmental impacts which have resulted in criticism from within the country as well as from Europe and the United States. Criticism from institutions outside the country has been particularly worrisome as it raises the question of the extent to which Botswana is in control of her development policy, as well as the impact which changing attitudes abroad will have within the country. In light of these problems the thesis investigates their relationship to present modernisation policy and proposes a different approach to development. C H A P T E R 2. T H E O R I E S O F D E V E L O P M E N T 2.1. T H E R O O T S O F M O D E R N I S A T I O N The ideas which influenced modernisation theory can be traced back to the 17th century. These ideas include the concepts of "progress" and "development" which describe movement towards what is perceived to be a better state. The dominant perception has regarded development to be a linear process which can be achieved through economic growth, and the absence of restrictions on trade was seen as the best way to foster this process. The protestant ethic created a new attitude towards work and wealth by making material acquisition a virtue. The main purpose of society became that of accumulating wealth. As Locke stated, "he who appropriates land to himself by his labour, does not lessen but increases the common stock of mankind" (Locke, in Rees, 1989:3). According to Smith, the accumulation of wealth is not good for its own sake; it permits investment in machinery, thus leading to increased production, more employment, and even more investment. This process of development is considered to create ever-increasing benefits. The views of Locke and Smith on the relationship between capital and the generation of wealth were therefore precursors of what was later to be known as self sustaining growth -a very important concept in modernisation theory. Like Locke, Smith argued that the basis of human activity was the pursuit of material self interest: 5 Theories of Development / 6 it is not to the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard for their own self interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk of our own necessities but of their advantages (Smith, 1776:139). This self-interest was good because it would drive society towards the multiplication of riches by making man creative, innovative and likely to take risk (Heilbroner, 1986:63). Thus classical liberalism saw in the individual the prospect for social progress through personal accumulation (Bauzon and Abel: 1986:43). 2.2. ARGUMENTS OF MODERNISATION THEORY Despite the fact that the concept of progress has a long history, it was not until after the Second World War that a coherent development ideology emerged. However, rather than being a concern of the West, the issues of development shifted significantly to the developing countries. "Development" replaced "progress" as the key word and modernisation became the dominant theory which explained how development should be achieved. Modernisation theory can be summarised as follows: (a) First, it stresses the importance of inter-dependence with the capitalist economies, (b) Second, the theory argues that development requires the accumulation of wealth, (c) Third, it states that economic growth is possible in all countries. Theories of Development / 7 2.2.1. Inter-dependence With Capitalist Economies Modernisation considers the integration of the developing countries into an international capitalist system to be a prerequisite for their development into economically mature states. Underlying the concept of economic integration is the theory of comparative advantage which contends that a country may raise its level of consumption by specialising in the production and foreign sale of commodities for which it has the lowest costs of production relative to other countries (Blomstrom and Hettne,1984:15). The argument is that different countries have relatively different supplies of production factors and that this is what determines which commodity gives the country a comparative cost advantage. According to the theory of comparative advantage, a country with a relatively good supply of labour, compared to capital, should have a comparative advantage in the production of commodities which use more labour than capital, and, therefore should produce labour intensive commodities and import capital intensive ones from countries with relatively large supplies of capital (Blomstrom and Hettne,1984:15). Specialisation in the production of particular goods implied free trade which was encouraged on the assumption that it would increase competition and efficiency, and result in the transfer of technical skills, financial resources and knowledge, which would in turn lead to economic growth in the developing countries. In practice, specialisation has made the developing countries producers of raw materials for the industrial centres, and this subjected their development Theories of Development / 8 to any changes which occurred in the industrial countries. 2.2.2. Development and the Accumulation of Wealth The equation of economic growth with development has led modernisation theorists to conclude that resources ought to be concentrated on those individuals who have the highest propensity to save and invest as well as in the sectors of the economy which show the greatest potential for growth. Fundamental to this model of development is the assumption that, through a cumulative and positive process, growth will be generated and eventually dispersed throughout the economy to ultimately benefit individuals, regions, and countries.1 As Friedmann and Weaver (1979) have observed, the challenge of development has been equated with the accumulation of capital. The assumption that economic growth is development was powerfully reinforced in a 1951 United Nations report entitled Measures for the Economic  Development of Under-developed Countries. The report firmly established the distinction between the 'developed' and the 'under-developed' countries, by implying that development could be measured using economic accounts of those sectors of the economy which were monetised. However, since much of the economies of non-western countries were not monetised, the developing countries showed low indices, and were therefore considered undeveloped. In addition, the adoption of a *As Appendix 1 states, Myrdal is considered to be a structuralist rather than a modernisation theorist. He believes that growth may occur in the developing economies and benefit everyone, and in this respect he reflects the modernisation perspective. On the other hand, he argues that sometimes growth may fail to occur and that instead, negative forces, such as poverty and unemployment, may dominate the cumulative process, thus driving it away from equilibrium. Theories of Development / 9 single limited measure of development implies little attention to the question of equity in the distribution of benefits. Indeed, Hirschman (1958), argues that resources should be concentrated in some geographic areas and economic sectors because developing countries do not possess adequate administrative capacity, entrepreneurial skills and financial resources to enable them to carry out an economic development programme that can be spread evenly between regions and economic sectors from the outset. The unbalanced growth2 view holds that locating economic activity in a particular area provides an impetus to the general development of that area because opportunities for employment and higher incomes are provided for those unemployed, or those employed in low income earning activities (Myrdal, 1957). A consequence of higher employment and wages is the flourishing of local business as demand for products and services increases. Further, labour and capital are attracted from outside to exploit the expanding opportunities (Myrdal, 1957; Hirschman, 1958). Although modernisation theorists expect polarisation between regions to occur, they argue that the benefits of growth from growth centres will trickle-down to the poorer regions and people (Hirschman, 1958). Only a limited role for the state is envisaged in the form of inducements to restore equilibrium, if the market is unsuccessful. However, modernisation theory does not advocate the distribution of wealth but maintains that everyone will benefit from growth ~ ^ The concept of unbalanced growth, or polarisation, suggests that economic growth does not take place uniformly between economic sectors or geographic regions. It however considers this to be a temporary abberation which will change with economic growth. Theories of Development / 10 though to varying degrees. The theory, therefore, places a lot of faith in the operation of the free market and in the benevolence of powerful economic and political groups. 2.2.3. Prospects for Economic Growth Rostow (1960) argues that capitalist development is possible in all countries, and that it follows a predictable linear path from "traditional society" through the stages of "pre-take-off", "take-off", "maturity", and "high mass consumption". According to Rostow (1960), the main characteristic limitation of the "traditional society" is that it develops within limited production functions, based on pre-Newtonian science and technology and on pre-Newtonian attitudes to the physical world. Its economy is largely based on agriculture, and output is limited in the absence of science applied to production. In order to shed traditional social structure, culture, and political organisation which inhibit progress, Rostow argued that non-western societies needed to be given "some external intrusion by more advanced societies" which ...shocked the traditional society and began or hastened its undoing; (and) also set in motion ideas and sentiments which initiated a process by which a modern alternative to the traditional society was constructed out of the old culture (Rostow, 1960:6). This theme on the need to abandon old attitudes was repeated by the 1951 UN report which concluded that Theories of Development / 11 ancient philosophies have to be scrapped; old social institutions have to disintegrate and large numbers of persons who cannot keep up with progress have to have their expectations of a comfortable life frustrated (UN Report,p.l5, in Friedmann and Weaver, 1979:112). Economic modernisation is to be accompanied by political modernisation similar to the European and North American types. The changes required in political organisation are intended to give government authority to take the lead in the development of unified commercial markets and in all other areas of national policy (Rostow, 1960:30). This means the centralisation of power. The new political order requires the emergence of a new leadership and "....it is essential that the members of this new elite regard modernisation as a possible task, serving some end they judge to be ethically good or otherwise advantageous (Rostow, 1960:26). Rostow states that the second stage of "pre take-ofT" is a period of transition during which The idea spreads not just that economic progress is possible, but that economic progress is a necessary condition for some other purpose, judged to be good: be it national dignity, private profit, the general welfare, or better life for the children (Rostow, 1960:6). Despite changing attitudes towards commerce and enterprise and the increasing application of technology to production, society at this stage is still largely characterised by "traditional low-productivity methods, by the old social structure and values...." (Rostow, 1960:7). Rostow considers the third stage of "take-off" to be the "great watershed Theories of Development / 12 in the life of modern societies" as the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome. During this stage, "the forces of economic progress....expand and come to dominate the society. Growth becomes its normal condition. Compound interests become built, as it were, into its habits and institutional structure" (Rostow, 1960). The fourth stage of the "drive to maturity" is a long interval of sustained progress as technology is extended over all economic activities. The economy of the developing country becomes integrated into the international economy, and there is a shift to technologically more advanced production processes. The final stage of "high mass consumption" is characterised by the production of consumer goods and services, and the emergence of the welfare state (Rostow, 1960). In its prescription of economic growth, modernisation has neglected impacts on the natural environment. Julian Simon (1980) considers environmental concerns to be "phony bad news" and, together with Herman Khan, feels that innovation and technology will provide solutions to all problems. The limits of growth, they argue, can only arise from pyschological and cultural limits or from incompetence: Science and technology which...removed poverty,...created affluence, improved health...now appears to some people to raise a general threat to the continuation of our civilisation (Quoted in Fernie and Pitkethly,1985). Simon and Khan see no reason why living standards should not continue to rise, Theories of Development / 13 asserting that "if present trends continue, the world in 2000 will be...less polluted, more stable ecologically, and less vulnerable to resource supply disruption.... (Quoted in Holden,1983). Clearly, the modernisation school does not appreciate the relationship between economic development and possible environmental decline. Neither does it perceive that international relations may be the cause of underdevelopment, or that the domestic accumulation of wealth may not benefit some members of society. It perceives instead, an original state of backwardness which will be left behind as the forces of modernisation are unleashed. In so far as there is any discussion of under-development, the concern of the theory is to identify the barriers which resist change and modernisation (Blomstrom and Hettne,1984). 2.3. T H E E M E R G E N C E O F D E P E N D E N C Y T H E O R Y A significant part of the criticism of modernisation theory has come from the dependency school in Latin America which developed in Santiago in the 1960's and, to a lesser extent, from the African school. The Latin American school is associated with figures such as Raul Prebisch,3 Andre Gunder Frank, Theotino Dos Santos, and Osvaldo Sunkel, while the views of Samir Amin are associated with the dependency school in Africa. It was Raul Prebisch who began the movement towards the new theory of development by observing that the international division of labour had relegated Latin America, and other regions on aSome views o f R a u l Prebisch are similar to those of the structuralists (See appendix 1). The reason why I have included him with the dependentistas is because, as head of the ECLA in the 1950's, he was responsible for initiating the thinking which led to the evolution of dependency theory. Theories of Development / 14 the periphery of the world economic system, to be producers of raw materials while denying them the possibility of industrialising.4 The following definition of dependence by Dos Santos appears to be representative of the views of the dependentistas: By dependence we mean a situation in which the economy of certain countries is conditioned by the development and expansion of another economy to which the former is subjected. The relation of inter-dependence between two or more economies, and between these and world trade, assumes the form of dependence when some countries (the dominant ones) can expand and be self-sustaining, while other countries (the dependent ones) can do this only as a reflection of that expansion.... (Dos Santos, in Blomstrom and Hettne, 1984:64). Although dependency theorists subscribe to a theory of dependence, it is important to note that they do not agree on all issues. Despite disagreement, dependency theory has provided a new perspective regarding problems in developing countries. An analysis of dependency literature reveals how the dependentistas have responded to the assumptions of modernisation regarding (a) the results of inter-dependence with capitalist economies, (b) the relationship between the accumulation of wealth and improved living conditions, and (c) the prospects for economic growth in the periphery. 4Prebisch, like Myrdal, thought that the answer to this dependence was import substitution, whereby the developing countries manufactured their own consumption goods. As it turned out, import substitution still required the importation of capital equipment and this perpetuated dependence. Theories of Development / 15 2.3.1. The Results of Inter-dependence According to dependency theorists such as Frank (1966), integration into the international capitalist structure has led to the underdevelopment of the developing countries and reveals the imperialist nature of capitalism. First, integration has led to dependence on western capital, technology, management and markets. Second, it has resulted in the transfer of economic surplus in the form of profits, interest, royalties and terms of trade since the control of the economic structures has been placed in the hands of the industrialised countries and their institutions.5 In light of these conclusions on the effects of integration, Frank (1966) rejects the dualist thesis which maintains that parts of the developing countries have become modern, capitalist, and relatively developed because of their contact with capitalism, while the other parts that lacked this contact remained variously isolated, subsistence-based, feudal or pre-capitalist and, therefore, more underdeveloped (Frank, 1966:18). For the former colonies, economic links with external markets have imposed limits to decision-making even after political independence has been attained. The overall situation is currently one in which developing countries have to tolerate interference in such domestic affairs as budget allocations, as well as adopt appropriate political behaviour as a condition for foreign assistance. Julius ^Sunkel (1973) maintains that one of the most important agents of the industrial countries in this process has been the multi-national corporation. Levitt uses the case of Canada to underscore this point: "....Its regression into a state of extreme economic and political dependence cannot possibly be attributed...to an unfavourable endowment of resources. Nor can its present scarcity of independent dynamic be laid at the door of a traditional culture. We suggest that...an explanation is to be found in the dynamics of the...American corporate economy (Cited in Sunkel,1973). Theories of Development / 16 Nyerere has commented on the stifling effects of such integration: The complaint of the poor countries against the present state is not only that we are both poor in the absolute and relative terms and in comparison with the rich nations. It is also that within the existing structures of economic interaction we must remain poor, and get relatively poorer, whatever we do.... (Julius Nyerere, 1974, in Murphy, 1984:1). In its emphasis on the expansive nature of capitalism and in its analysis of society, dependency theory is clearly influenced by Leninist views on imperialism.6 Reflecting views on the imperialist manner in which modernisation has been imposed against the experiences and traditions of the developing countries, President Kountche of Niger observed: Extrapolations from the experiences of other countries, or direct transplants are often seized on because they seem to provide easy answers. In either case, an essential factor is neglected: the traditions and customs, so powerful in Africa, on which we forged our civilisation (quoted in Timberlake, 1985:201). 2.3.2. Economic Growth in the Periphery Dependency theorists are divided on the question of economic growth in the periphery. Cardoso, Amin and Marini believe that only a limited form of capitalist development in the developing countries is possible. Amin (1976) argues views of Lenin and the dependency theorists in this respect are similar. Lenin did not think that exporting capital to the less developed countries would necessarily lead to capitalist development because "The progressive effects of capitalism...are not to be seen there (in the colonies), despite the infiltration of foreign capital. When the dominant imperialist power needs social support, it joins forces, first and foremost, with the ruling classes of the old pre-capitalist system...against the masses" (Blomstrom and Hettne, 1984:11). The implication is that capitalist development was only possible once the colonies had become politically independent. Theories of Development / 17 that the relationship between the centre and the periphery does not allow the development of pure capitalism but rather results in 'blocked capitalism'. He argues, for example, that high demand is not possible in the periphery because of low wages. Marini (1965;1972) too distinguishes between peripheral capitalism and that found at the centre, arguing that the development of the former is determined by the latter. Prebisch (1971) acknowledges the absence of dynamism in the periphery which he attributes to a number of internal and external factors, such as the low volume and difficult terms of international finance, as well as flaws in the policies of the developing countries. However, unlike Cardoso, Amin and Marini, he considers domestic problems to be more responsible for the lack of dynamism. Furtado, Sunkel and Amin have argued that because of the effects of imperialism on the non-industrialised countries, the condition they are in now is their final form unless they can break from the world imperialist system. Although the dependency theorists agree that there can be no dynamism without change in relationships, they differ on where such change should begin. Sunkel believes that rather than coming from an improvement in external conditions, change in development policy in the periphery will come only from change in domestic conditions which can arise from political alliances between the middle and the poorer groups. Furtado (1983:7) appears to stress changes in external conditions which would involve changing the power relationships underlying the international Theories of Development / 18 economic order. He also suggests that the key is for the developing countries to have control of technology, financial resources, and to engage in intra-regional trade. Prebisch (1971:11) has argued that "external cooperation is important, but only as a way of stimulating internal action." Like Furtado (1983), he also stresses the importance of trade both regionally and at a wider international level, but argues that the terms of cooperation should be different from those which existed in the past. The views of Prebisch contrast with those of Amin (1976) who advocates a complete break with the industrialised countries, the production of capital and consumption goods by the developing countries, and an expansion of the internal market leading to mass consumption and dynamism in the periphery. Reflecting their Marxist leanings, Cardoso and Faletto (1979), do not subscribe to a theory of dependent capitalism and "criticize those who expect permanent stagnation in underdeveloped dependent countries...." (Cardoso and Faletto, 1979:xxiv).7 7As Appendix 2points out, Marxists believe that the development of capitalism is part of an inevitable process which will lead to its collapse. Therefore, for them, the concept of stagnation is alien. Theories of Development / 19 2.3.3. Economic. Growth and Liv ing Conditions Dependency theorists have contrasting views regarding whether accumulation leads to improvements in living conditions. Prebisch considers accumulation to be a prerequisite for any improvement, and argues that "....capital formation on a very large scale is required" (Prebisch,1971:7). His view is similar to that of modernisation theorists as he does not address the consequences of power relationships on the distribution of resources following accumulation. Furtado on the other hand, does not perceive a direct relationship between high capital accumulation and improved living standards and states that "....at accumulation levels that seem low in present-day terms, civilisations were produced that are still in may ways unsurpassed" (Furtado, 1983:8). The view of dependency theorists, such as Cardoso and Faletto (1979), on prospects for the poor and the politically weak is based on the assertion that the state primarily serves the interests of powerful groups. These theorists have concluded that the developing state may find it difficult, or may indeed choose not to use its power to support the poor and create a more just society. In fact redistribution often has not taken place, even in countries where economic growth has occurred, because of the social, political, bureaucratic and economic structures which accompany unequal growth. Thus Cardoso and Faletto (1979) ....criticize those who expect capitalist development of the peripheral economies to solve problems such as distribution of property, full employment, better income distribution and living conditions (Cardoso and Faletto, 1979:xxiv). Theories of Development / 20 Although one explanation for the lack of economic advance for the poor is the exploitative alliance of dominant domestic and external interests, Cardoso and Faletto suggest that the alliance is not always cordial. They maintain that internal alliances between the upper and the middle classes are possible in order to resist foreign penetration (Cardoso and Faletto, 1979). The same observation has been made by Valenzuela and Valenzuela (1984:108) who point out that "dominant local interests...have tended to favour the preservation...of patterns of dependency in their interests", and Cardoso and Faletto (1979:xix) who suggest that the starting point of accumulation can be internal. Therefore, underdevelopment is not solely a consequence of external constraints but also results from relationships between groups within nations. In summary, dependency theory offers a valuable alternative explanation of development in the developing countries8 even though as a critique of modernisation it does not offer alternatives to current development. The theory has argued that because of their lack of influence, the politically weak may not benefit from economic development. It has also rejected the suitability of existing international relations by attributing underdevelopment and dependence to economic integration. Finally, dependency theory has dismissed the idea that development is a predictable linear process which can be objectively measured using economic indices. Modernisation policies for the livestock sector in Botswana are discussed in the next chapter in order to determine their implications for dependence and to examine their socio-economic and environmental impacts. For an alternative view of the utility of dependency theory, see Appendix 2. C H A P T E R 3. D E V E L O P M E N T O F T H E L I V E S T O C K S E C T O R 3.1. T H E C O N T E X T O F D E V E L O P M E N T P O L I C I E S The development of the cattle sector has taken place within a natural environment, as well as social, economic, and political conditions, which are briefly related below before some of the major policies adopted by the government are outlined. 3.1.1. The Natural Environment The tolerance of Botswana's natural environment to abuse is limited, largely due to the fragility of the country's soil, and the type and amount of rainfall. Most of the land is only able to support a fragile vegetation cover of sparse grasses which are vulnerable to overuse. Annual rainfall averages range between 250 mm and 650 mm, with annual variations of up to 45 percent (Arntzen and Veenendaal:1986). An estimated 80 percent of Botswana's physiography can be described as a flat sand-filled depression with an average altitude of 1,000 metres. The sand deposits vary in depth from 3 metres to over 100 metres (Arntzen and Veenendaal, 1986:23). In the east of the country, the edge of the expanse of sand is marked by the low hill ranges of eastern Botswana where, slightly better soil quality and more reliable rainfall have generally resulted in improved farming conditions. In the west, the sand extends into Namibia. 21 Development of the Livestock Sector / 22 % VARIATION RAINFALL (mm) Figure 1. Botswana: Annual Rainfall Source: Botswana Government. 1985. The limited rainfall experienced is usually in the form of heavy showers Development of the Livestock Sector / 23 over a short duration which reduces its effectiveness. In some places surface runoff is high, as is the evaporation rate which can be as high as 2 metres per annum (Botswana Government, 1985:200). The soils in eastern Botswana are the ferruginous tropical type (Cooke, 1982:9), derived from igneous and metamorphic rocks and from sedimentary rocks and sand. The soils derived from the former are the most common, and vary from leached infertile sandy soils to black fine-textured soils. Because of the poor soils and the unreliable rainfall, arable agriculture is everywhere difficult, and a risky sector to invest in. As a result, cattle rearing has assumed major importance because of the relative resilience of livestock to drought. However, only about half of the rural households, who comprise 80 percent of the national population of 1.2 million, own cattle. Despite dry conditions, the southern and central Kgalagadi sustain a very large number of wildlife. The main attraction of the north is the Okavango delta where water from the Angola highlands finally disappears into the sand and where many species of fauna and flora exist. East of the delta, all the way to the Zimbabwe border, is mostly game country - Moremi, Savuti, and Chobe. 3.1.2. Society Botswana is home to a number of tribes with different lifestyles and languages which can be either closely related or completely unrelated. The tribes depend to varying degrees on hunting and gathering and, in the Okavango and Development of the Livestock Sector / 24 Chobe, on fishing. However, most of the population largely derives its livelihood from either pastoral or arable agriculture, with the former being more economically significant. A high positive correlation exists between status in society, politics, the civil service, and the ownership of cattle. 3.1.3. The Economy At independence in 1966, the country was very poor and lacked all social services. Annual per capita income was equivalent to Pula 60 (Colclough and McCarthy, 1980:54),9 and the country depended on British grants and modest income from livestock and mining. The best year for the mining sector prior to independence was 1961 when proceeds from gold, manganese and asbestos amounted to Pula 0.5 million (Colclough and McCarthy, 1980:139).10 In February 1967, copper and nickel were discovered in eastern Botswana at Selebi Phikwe. Two months later, a diamond pipe was located at Orapa, about 200 kilometres to the west. These two mining projects, together with subsequent ones at Lethakane and Jwaneng for diamonds, and Morupule for coal, as well as the livestock sector, have been responsible for virtually all the economic growth in the country since independence. However, an analysis of the major participants in the mining sector reveals that Botswana's major economic ventures are dominated by foreign capital (See Anglo American Corporation, 1989; Colclough and McCarthy, 1980). 9Pula 1 is approximately equal to US Dollar 0.5. 1 0Because of lack of data, it is difficult to establish what proportion of total domestic output this figure comprised. The main point, though, is that revenues from the mining sector were very small in absolute terms as well as relative to the post-independence period. Development of the Livestock Sector / 25 Nevertheless, measured in conventional terms, economic growth has been spectacular. First, the increase in GDP has averaged 13 percent per annum in real terms over the entire post-independence period (Botswana Government, 1985). By the middle of the last decade, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was five times what it had been at independence (Botswana Government, 1985). Second, with the exception of 1981, the balance of payment account has been in surplus every year since 1978. The lastest figures for 1988 show a surplus of Pula 880 million 1 1 (Bank of Botswana,1990:29). Third, international reserves have grown from Pula 65 million, or the equivalent to four months of imports in 1976, to an estimated Pula 5,248 million in 1989 and were sufficient to cover 29 months of imports (Bank of Botswana, 1990:34). Fourth, formal sector jobs had increased to over 168,000 by 1988 (Bank of Botswana, 1990:65). A significant part of this increase was in the public service where employment rose from less than 6,000 in 1966 (Botswana Government, 1985:16) to more than 56,000 in 1988 (Bank of Botswana, 1990:65). The number of expatriates employed increased from 3,116 in 1971 to 4,200 in 1983, but declined as a proportion of total employment from 8 percent to 4.2 percent. Finally, the Bank of Botswana (1989) reports an increasing trend of Pula 1 = US $ 0.5 approximately. Development of the Livestock Sector / 26 excess of liquidity in the commercial banking sector (Bank of Botswana, 1989:15). Behind all these powerful statistics, however, is a concern that the momentum of growth may not be sustained indefinitely, and also that, despite the high indices of growth, many people have not benefited. Critics of government policy suggest that the economic aggregates are misleading because they do not reflect critical issues of poverty, unemployment, and generally low living standards which have accompanied economic growth. In addition, there has been concern about the implications for national independence of the present pattern of development and, more recently, questions regarding its ecological sustainability. The first criticism that can be made is with regard to employment. Although formal sector employment has been growing, it has only offered opportunities to 20 percent of the adult population (Botswana Government, 1985:19): The growth in the labour force has far exceeded available jobs. Data are unreliable, but it is estimated that in 1986 the unemployment rate was 19.2 percent (Bank of Botswana, 1989:9).12 Therefore, about 60 percent of the labour force was working in either the informal sector or engaged in agriculture. With the population growing at a rate of 3.4 percent per annum, unemployment problems will become even more urgent. Second, the high rate of economic growth does not reflect an ^Unemployment is defined as the percentage of people aged fifteen or over who are not at school and are not engaged in either formal or informal employment. Development of the Livestock Sector / 27 improvement in the lives of Batswana. 1 3 An examination of the beneficiaries of growth dampens the significance of these impressive figures on GDP. To be fair, the sixth National Development Plan is cautious about the significance of average per capita GDP because it includes both incomes that accrue to foreigners and the returns to foreign investment. For example, it notes that about 25 percent of all wage and salary earnings in Botswana are received by non-citizens (Botswana Government, 1985:19). Third, data on nutrition reveal that in drought-free years, just over 25 percent of children in the age group of 6 months to five years show evidence of malnutrition, 14 implying that a large number of households experience shortages of food due to their low income or limited assets (Botswana Government, 1985:20). During the drought years of the early 80's, incidence of malnutrition for the 6 months to 5 year old age group rose to between 28 and 32 percent (Botswana Government, 1985:20). The existence of undernourishment implies the existence of a structural poverty problem. The current National Development Plan however denies the prevalence of severe malnutrition, and states that even after three consecutive years of drought in the early 80's, less than 1 percent of the children in the age group had less than 60 percent of the expected weight (Botswana Government,1985:20). Finally, the high level of liquidity in the economy has not benefited the poor who lack the necessary assets to generate income, or to use it as collateral i 3Citizens of Botswana. 1 4Malnutrition is defined as less than 80 percent of expected body weight. Development of the Livestock Sector / 28 for loans. In addition, the cost of borrowing money is high because of high interest rates. It is therefore apparent that the aggregate statistics on employment, income and GDP hide significant problems and the widespread variations in the livelihoods of individuals. Despite the existence of the outlined problems, the issue of how to disburse some of the money in the international reserves is a conundrum. The opposition charges that government is hoarding too much wealth, while much of the population remains in abject poverty. For its part, the government urges cautious spending because hard times may lie ahead. This debate on whether the money should be spent, and how, suggests that the state may fail to meet the needs of the less powerful. It also reflects the fact that it is very difficult for redistribution to occur once powerful economic and political interests have been institutionalised. 3.1.4. Politics Botswana politics is dominated by a coalition of wealthy, educated, cattle-owning, political elite committed to a largely free enterprise system (Picard, 1987:21). Considerable power is also wielded by the civil service, whose top echelons share economic characteristics with the political leadership. Picard (1987:21), suggests that there is no single group that can rival the central and local government bureaucrats in terms of size, economic status, and political influence. Development of the Livestock Sector / 29 Despite existing economic and social problems, the three main opposition political parties have less than 25 percent of the vote between them (Picard, 1987:178). The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has been skilful in maintaining broad support, both among moderate urban residents, and more significantly, among rural dwellers. As Sillery has noted, the BDP is ...the party of the countryside, of the farms, cattle owners, herdsmen, the men of the tribes, who form the great majority of the people of the territory. In the towns the party appeals to the moderates, the professionals and middle classes (Cited in Colclough and McCarthy, 1980:47). Allegiance to the BDP is manifested by the consistently large parliamentary majority which was increased even further in the most recent elections of October 1989. The greatest challenge to the party comes from the urban areas and, since 1984, has been symbolised by the capture of the two seats in the capital by the official opposition. Despite differences in approaches to development, relations with the neighbouring states are good and Botswana actively participates with other states in the region in the Southern African Development Coordination Conference, as well as in regular meetings of the Frontline States. The main external concern comes from the uneasy relations with South Africa. The most problematic part of the reluctant relationship is the aspect of security. Botswana's relatively large and sparsely-populated area of 582,000 square kilometres, as well as her long borders, provide a good option for those who want to leave or re-enter South Africa without the knowledge of either government. Development of the Livestock Sector / 30 Botswana's ideology, which is the basis of her development strategy, is acceptable to most governments in the West and largely accounts for the political and economic support that the country continues to receive from abroad, particularly from North America and Western Europe. It is this ideology which has shaped policies for the cattle sector. 3.2. P O L I C I E S F O R T H E C A T T L E S E C T O R A number of measures including land reform, disease control, pricing and subsidy policies have been instituted in Botswana to support the country's livestock sector. These measures are amplified in the discussion to follow. 3.2.1. Land Reform Most cattle in Botswana have traditionally been raised on communal lands in the eastern part of the country. However, congestion in the 'traditional' grazing areas over the past decades precipitated movement westwards onto the Kgalagadi sandveld fringe where the scarcity of water had previously constrained pastoral activity. As might be expected, this proved to be only a temporary solution to the congestion because as the area of land under cattle expanded, so did the cattle population and, consequently, the pressure on land. As this process of decline progressed, interest shifted even further west to the lands of the Gantsi and Kgalagadi districts which the Crown and, subsequently the independent state, had retained for its own use. Development of the Livestock Sector / 31 The pressure on land 1 5 resulted in an increasing interest for individuals to acquire fenced ranches, but lack of adequate resources and supportive policies prevented many from doing so. Although from independence the government entertained the idea of individual tenure, the principles of ranch development were first clearly stated during the period of the second national development plan. They were most fully expressed in the government White Paper of March 1972 entitled Rural Development in Botswana: Government Paper No.l of 1972. This paper summarised the dilemma facing the government: We cannot afford to permit individual tenure in the rural areas since that would risk alienating the majority from their means of production - the land. Equally, we cannot afford to permit the traditional methods to continue because under pressure of an expanding...population, they are ruining the land pasture which represents the only livelihood for our people (Botswana Government, 1975:3). In July 1975, the government of Botswana published a White Paper entitled: National Policy on Tribal Grazing Land: Government Paper No.2 of  1975. The subject addressed by the paper was the degradation of land and rural development. Most of the input for its formulation came from the Rural Development Unit of the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, the Division of Land Utilisation of the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Lands Division of the Ministry of Local Government and Lands. The paper concluded that the granting of individual tenure, in the form of 50 year renewable leases, on some communal land would address both these issues. It was expected that i t 3The pressure on land has taken place in the context of a human population which had doubled since the mid 1960's. The spatial distribution of the population has been important since most of the increase has been in the rural areas. With half of the population under the age of 15 (Tumkaya, 1988:3), pressure on resources will continue to exist in the future. Development of the Livestock Sector / 32 through this measure, environmental degradation would be halted and productivity within the livestock sector enhanced through better management.16 The government's conception of the problem leading to the formulation of the 1975 National Policy on Tribal Grazing Land (commonly referred to as the Tribal Grazing Land Policy, or TGLP), was a simple one. Cattle owners had responded to increases in beef prices by expanding their herds. This expansion resulted in overgrazing which in turn lead to erosion, and therefore to the further decline of land productivity. The policy paper stated that the solution lay in a change to the way in which land was being used. The proposed alternative held prospects for "improved grazing and livestock management and much more money better distributed to more people" (Botswana Government, 1975:5). The rationale was that by maximising economic investment in the livestock sector, the amount of wealth subsequently available for distribution would also be maximised (Botswana Government, 1975:5). The aims of the policy were to be achieved by: 1. dividing the country into commercial, communal and reserved land; 2. encouraging large cattle owners to move their herds from the communal areas to the commercial ranches thereby reducing land pressure;17 and, 3. introducing stock limitation measures on the communal areas. The main assumption was that privately-controlled land would be better managed i eThe solution reflected the theory of the 'tragedy of the commons' which maintains that the common ownership of resources is not conducive to good management. See (Hardin, 1968). 1 7 I t was envisaged that between 700 and 900 ranches would be allocated (Hubbard, 1986:189) and that each of them would be 64 square km large. By 1987, about 300 ranches have been allocated (Balopi,1987). Development of the Livestock Sector / 33 resulting in greater productivity. With reduced grazing pressure on the communal areas, it was expected that the owners of small herds would have a better chance at managing their cattle. The grazing needs of future generations would be looked after by the reserve areas created. 1 8 A consultation programme which was carried out before the policy was implemented was unsatisfactory and did not give prominence to the implications for the poor. The Government stated that: It should be made clear that the public discussion is not being undertaken in order to debate the land development policy per se. Rather, the position is that we have the policy and a proposition for implementing it (Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, in Picard, 1980:333). Much opposition to the policy stemming from its potential social implications came from officers at the Ministry of Local Government and Lands and in the District Administration, which is linked to the former (Picard, 1980), as well as from university students and academics (Molutsi,1988). When the policy guidelines were presented to Cabinet in 1974, the question of impact on the poor had not been discussed adequately (Wily, 1981:96). The working group had concluded that "the effects of enclosure...will be minimised...by a policy of gradualism. By another series of measures the income skew inseparable from a livestock-based economy, will be mitigated...." (Rural Development Unit, Cited in Wily, 1981:96). 1 8As it turned out, the amount of land available was overestimated and therefore the reserve land category was not created. 3.2.2. Disease Control Development of the Livestock Sector / 34 Modernisation principles are also evident in efforts to control cattle disease. There were foot and mouth disease outbreaks in 1968, 1977 and 1978. These outbreaks have threatened the continuation of beef exports to the E E C as all beef exports are required to come from disease-free areas and are not to be cattle which have been slaughtered within twelve months of vaccination. The need to control cattle disease has therefore been given great importance by the veterinary requirements of the export market. Following the outbreak in 1978, a vaccine production laboratory was built, in addition to the construction of cordon fences intended to limit cattle movement as well as contact with wild animals known to carry the disease. 1 9 Because some of these fences were constructed in areas which support large numbers of wildlife, the effort also resulted in the mortality of many animals as they were prevented from reaching water sources (Hobbs,1983; Owens and Owens, 1980). Figure 2 shows the location of the fences. Although the first reports of the deaths of wildlife date back to 1972, it was not until the early 1980's that the issue became significant, coinciding with the resurgence of the environmental movement throughout the world. Within the country, most concern has come from those institutions, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Wildlife, and conservation groups which are directly affected. Concern outside the country has tended to come from some North American and European environmental groups, as well as from the European Community. In 1 9 The first fence was in fact constructed in 1954 by the colonial government. Development of the Livestock Sector / 35 ^ / \ . /iCasane^ 50 100 150 200 km Double cordon fence Single cordon fence Proposed cordon fence Railway cordon during outbreak Quarantine camp Abattoir Proposed abatloi' Road Town or village Figure 2. Location of Veterinary Fences Source: Cooke and Silitshena,1986. addition to criticizing the impact of the fences on wildlife, another question which Development of the Livestock Sector / 36 has arisen is whether they are effective in controlling disease (Owens and Owens, 1980). Another disease control measure with possible environmental implications has been the attempt to eliminate the tsetse fly20 from the fringes of the ecologically sensitive Okavango delta. The tsetse fly has been controlled through aerial spraying of the chemical endosulfan, as well as through ground spraying using dieldrin. The aerial spraying programme began in 1973 and is still continuing (Opschoor and Veenendaal,1986; Merron,1990). Dieldrin is a very persistent insecticide which accumulates in the food chain. Before aerial spraying began in 1973, dieldrin was widely used, and it was still being used as recently as 1986 in ground spraying programmes along the Savuti channel and the Linyanti river in the northern Okavango to prevent the spread of the tsetse fly to the north (Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986:30). Some of the questions which have arisen in relation to the spraying programme are whether the methods are really effective against the tsetse fly, whether the use of chemicals are harmful to other forms of life, and how long the chemical persists in the environment (Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986). 3.2.3. Subsidies, Pric ing and Marketing Policies The period between independence and 1974 was a relatively calm period dominated by internal issues such as the creation of the parastatal Botswana ^ The tsetse fly lis the vector of sleeping sickness in human beings and the disease nagana in cattle. Development of the Livestock Sector / 37 Meat Commission (BMC) following the nationalisation of the abbatoir at Lobatse (Hubbard, 1986). Apart from a foot and mouth epidemic in 1968, there were no major problems. The first major external problem came in 1974, following British entry into the European Community which initially saw levies suddenly imposed on Botswana beef, and eventually the suspension of all beef imports due to oversupply within the Community.21 The suspension obtained until an agreement was reached the following year. The European Economic Community's assistance programme to the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACP Countries) since 1975 has taken place under the provisions of the Lome Conventions.22 The agreements address the export of beef to the EEC from a number of ACP countries including Botswana, but the beef protocol is only one of many components of the agreement which also covers technical and financial cooperation. To date, there have been four conventions. From the first convention in 1975, Botswana was allocated a beef quota of 17,360 out of a total of 23,000 tonnes for the ACP countries; 18,916 tonnes out of 30,000 under Lome II in 1979; and 19,100 out of 38,000 tonnes at the third convention in 1984 (Hubbard, 1986:160-161). Although the total quota for the ACP countries was increased to 39,100 tonnes under Lome IV in March 1990, Botswana's quota remains unchanged at 19,100 tonnes (Bank of 7 1 Exports tothe United Kingdom began in 1958 when the colonial government and the Commonwealth Development Corporation gave Cyril Hurvitz, a South African meat entrepreneur, a contract which was to last seven years (Hubbard, 1986). 2 2The conventions bear the name of the Togolese capital because that is where all of them have been concluded. Development of the Livestock Sector / 38 Botswana,1990:28). Botswana also has been exempt from paying the 20 percent EEC common external tariff since 1975 (Hubbard, 1986:160), and has been granted a 90 percent reduction in the European Community import levy. The understanding with the EEC is that the rebated levy will be used by the Botswana Government to develop the livestock sector, and the government has chosen to use it to support cattle prices rather than to utilise it in any other way. Table I below shows that the amount of the levy rebated during the last decade increased from Pula 12.8 million in 1979/80 to Pula 61.3 million in 1988.23 However, the most significant year was 1985 when the rebate amounted to Pula 83.5 million. TABLE I: E U R O P E A N C O M M U N I T Y LEVY REBATE (1979/80-1988) Year Amount Rebated 1979/80 12.8 1980/81 0.0 1985 83.5 1986 70.7 1987 41.9 1988 61.3 Source: Hubbard,1986; Delegation of the European Communities,1988. 23Except for those relating to Table III, all figures for prices and incomes from this point have been adjusted for inflation. Development of the Livestock Sector / 39 Information on the South African market, which is the second most important for Botswana is sketchy. It however suggests that sales have been agreed upon on a more or less ad hoc basis and are not subject to any long term and formal agreement, such as exists with the European community. By the middle of the last decade, 1,000 beef carcasses per week were being sold in South Africa. 2 4 Botswana Meat Commission marketing policies have affected producer prices because the revenue which producers receive depends primarily on the prices obtained from beef sales. Prices are determined as follows: 1. First, operating and marketing expenses are deducted from total revenues; 2. Second, statutory allocations are made to the following funds: a. Botswana Meat Commission Assets and Renewal fund; 2 5 b. development fund; 2 6 c. capital loan redemption fund;27and d. stabilisation fund. 2 8 3. Third, taxes are deducted from the remainder, leaving net revenues for producers (Fidzani,1985). ^ 4The sale of live cattle in South Africa began in the 1920's as a result of the levying of taxes by the colonial government. Only in 1954 when an abbatoir was established by the Colonial Development Corporation (CDC) at Lobatse did beef replace live cattle (Hubbard, 1986). 2 5These appropriations are based on the amount considered adequate to provide for increases in the cost of replacing assets. 2 6The Commission may appropriate amounts to the development reserve not exceeding P2 per head of cattle slaughtered (Botswana Meat Commission, 1989:19). 2 7 This comprises amounts appropriated from income to provide for the repayment of loans made by the Government. 2 8 The Stabilisation fund is used to stabilise cattle prices which fluctuate particularly as a result of drought. This stability has been instrumental in building the nations confidence in the cattle sector (Fidzani, 1985:47). The total fund may not exceed Pula 20 million (Botswana Meat Commission, 1989:19). Development of the Livestock Sector / 40 The cattle sector has received generous subsidies in the form of veterinary inputs, subsidised feed, and support for producer prices through the use of money which would otherwise be paid to the European Community as 90 percent of the import levy. Altogether subsidies may account for up to 55 percent of production costs (World Bank, in Fidzani, 1985:33). During the period of the Fifth National Development Plan (NDP) (1979-85), subsidies for livestock accounted for 57.8 percent of development expenditure in agriculture as Table II below indicates. T A B L E II: D E V E L O P M E N T EXPENDITURE F O R A G R I C U L T U R E . N D P 5 N D P 5 N D P 6 Planned Actual Planned Animal Health 15.5 29.7 8.1 Livestock Development 41.2 28.1 13.7 Arable Development 22.1 21.8 48.95 Research 4.2 2.6 2.4 Training 3.4 8.4 0.05 Other 13.6 9.4 26.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Botswana Government 1985, p. 180, 199. Table II also shows that under the sixth plan (1985-91), expenditure for livestock projects is expected to be 21.8 percent of total agriculture expenditure. However, just as in the past, expenditure will certainly be increased to meet any contingency such as disease. Development of the Livestock Sector / 41 Table III presents estimated revenue and expenditure for the cattle (sector during the periods 1977-1981 and 1985-1989. For the latter period, the data includes estimates rather than actual figures and should therefore be treated as a general indication of reality. Revenue from the sector has been small and amounted to Pula 13.6 million and approximately Pula 72 million for 1977-79 and 1985-89 respectively. The largest source of revenue has been Botswana Meat Commission taxes. A comparison of revenue and expenditure for both periods shows that the sector has received a net subsidy from the government. Estimated net current expenditure rose from Pula 12 million between 1977 and 1979 to Pula 239.3 million during the period 1985-89. The table also reveals that the EEC levy rebate has been a very significant component of expenditure, and rose from about Pula 28 million between 1977 and 1979 to approximately Pula 282 million during the period 1985-89. The Ministry of Agriculture development budget for livestock-related projects has also been relatively high and for the period 1979-81, includes expenditure on the construction of veterinary fences. It is apparent that the policies for the livestock sector reflect some of the assumptions of modernisation. For example, economic growth and the success of marketing policies clearly depend on Botswana remaining integrated into international beef markets, while the disease control measures are intended to ensure the continuity of this relationship. Second, the Tribal Grazing Land Policy assumes that high economic growth will result in a general improvement in living standards in the rural areas. Third, there is a conviction that development DeveloDment of the Livestock Rector / 42 TABLE III: ESTIMATED REVENUE A N D EXPENDITURE F O R T H E CATTLE S E C T O R (PULA M I L L I O N ) 77-79 79-81 85-89 1. Expenditure Dept of Animal Health Recurrent 7.6 13.1 39.0 Dept of Agric. Field Services 2.4 3.7 2.4 Min. of Agriculture Development Budget 6.8 14.0 7.0 Rebate of EEC Levy 28.2 14.9 282.7 Total Expenditure 45.0 46.6 311.1 2. Revenue Dept of Animal Health 2.0 3.3 14.2 Dept of Agric. Field Services -- 0.3 0.1 Tax on Botswana Meat Commission 9.3 11.3 53.4 Tax on Farming Companies 0.6 0.6 1.5 Tax on Farming Individuals 1-8 2.6 2.7 Total Revenue 13.6 16.3 71.9 Net Expenditure 12.0 30.1 239.2 Source: Botswana Meat Commission, 1989; 1990; Delegation of the European Communities 1988; Botswana Government 1982; 1983; 1984; 1985(b); 1985(c); 1989(b); 1990. is possible provided the traditional constraints to productivity - in the form of land tenure ~ are removed and modernisation policies are implemented. The impacts of these policies are the subject of the next chapter. C H A P T E R 4. I M P A C T S O F P O L I C I E S This chapter discusses the socio-economic and environmental impacts of policies for the livestock sector, including their implications for dependence. Recent thinking and government actions regarding environmental problems in Botswana are also reviewed. 4.1. S O C I O - E C O N O M I C I M P A C T S This section examines the social and economic impacts of policies for the livestock sector. The following issues are specifically addressed: * the social consequences of land reform for some traditional users; * the impact of subsidies on production costs and income; and * cattle distribution and living standards. 4.1.1. Social Consequences of Land Reform A number of problems became apparent during the process of implementing the land reform, with the more important conflicts occurring in the Central district. The conflicts in this district are considered important because it is where most of the country's large cattle owners graze their cattle. Just prior to the implementation of the land reform, it was revealed that part of the land which was identified for ranching in the Central district was inhabited by the Basarwa hunter-gatherers. Subsequently, questions were raised as to whether they should, or could, be displaced in order to effect land reform. 43 Impacts of Policies / 44 The opinion of the Attorney General was that under the Tribal land Act, hunting and gathering was not specified as a customary right, and that the Basarwa did not have a reasonable claim to customary rights attributable to a tribal area including the right of residence. However, the Attorney General also pointed out that the Basarwa could acquire rights of residence in an area, if they had lived there for more than thirty years as specified under the provisions of the Acquisitive Prescription of Common Law (Wily, 1981). If they qualified for prescriptive rights, they were effectively "owners", and prescriptive rights could not be revoked without their permission in order to effect any exclusive rights on tribal land. To fail to secure the permission of the "owners" would be a breach of the Constitution which prohibits the expropriation of any right or interest over property. This opinion of the Attorney General was later withdrawn (Wily, 1981), and the issue of the Basarwa is not yet adequately resolved. Although some of the big farmers have moved some of their cattle to the Tribal Grazing Land Policy ranches, they have also kept some on communal land. Since the right to use communal land is the right of all tribesmen, if person acquires land outside tribal territory, that acquisition does not in any way affect his tribal rights. This issue of dual communal and private grazing rights continues to cause problems since it gives the ranchers access to both their ranches and to common land. Yet, it is unlikely that ranch owners will willingly surrender their rights on common land. The implementation of the TGLP has been slow because of a number of problems including the inaccessibility of some areas designated for ranching and Impacts of Policies / 45 the absence of ground water. However, by 1987, about 300 ranches had been allocated (Balopi,1987). The land policy had proposed that 10 percent of the country would become ranches (Hubbard, 1986:189). When the policy was introduced, 6 percent of the country was already freehold land and therefore the total would have risen to 16 percent. Molutsi (1988) notes that some of the land which had been designated for commercial ranching in the Kweneng and Ngwaketse districts was dezoned due to protest from the people who were affected. Although it has not been possible to establish the number of people displaced during the implementation of the policy, Hubbard (1986:193) notes that " the land concerned is being taken away from thousands of non-stock holders." Some of these have been resettled in four "communal service centres" in the Central and Southern districts (Botswana Government (1985:85). The land reform programme illustrates how the distribution of power can impact public policy formulation. It also raises issues of democracy and of the rights of groups, and how far, if at all, a perceived national goal should override the goals of individuals and groups. An important measure of the programme's success is its impact on the poor. The White Paper on land reform had stated that the policy would "...affect...virtually every Motswana...." (Botswana Government, 1975), but few predicted that the effect would be what it turned out to be. Land matters in Botswana therefore have become a major national political issue. 4.1.2. Subsidies and Producer Prices Impacts of Policies / 46 There was a consistent increase in the average floor price for beef throughout the 1980's. Figure 3 shows that the average floor price for beef increased from Pula 84 per 100 kg in 1980 to Pula 242 per 100 kg in 1988/89. 260 Cu 1080 1981 1983 1983 1984 1985 1985/88 1988/87 1987/88 1988/89 Year Figure 3. Average Floor Price for Beef (1980-89) Source: Author, based on Botswana Meat Commission, 1989; 1990. This increase in the floor price is reflected by the increase in aggregate incomes for farmers. Data in Figure 4 below show that, despite periodic fluctuations such as in 1985 and 1986/87, such revenues are high and very attractive. The Impacts of Policies / 47 revenues increased from Pula 24 million in 1980 to Pula 78 million in 1989. 100 - i 1 • 1980 1981 1982 1983 1 984- 1985 1985/86 1 980/87 1 987/88 1 988/89 Tear Figure 4. Payments to Cattle Producers (1980-1989) Source: Author, based on Botswana Meat Commission, 1989; 1990. The high revenue for beef producers not only results from high prices on the beef markets, but also reflects the use of the E E C levy rebate to directly support prices. Subsidies on the cost of veterinary inputs have lowered the cost of production for farmers, and have therefore helped to keep aggregate incomes high. The government maintains that many of the inputs are such that direct charges are either impractical or inappropriate. In particular, the government has not sought to recover the costs of vaccinations which are necessary to meet the veterinary health requirements of the export market, and whose effectiveness Impacts of Policies / 48 depends on universal use (Botswana Government, 1985:196). Subsidies to the livestock sector are likely to remain in effect for a long time because of the social disruption that would result from their termination. In particular, major reductions in the levels of subsidies could drive marginal farmers out of production. 4.1.3. Cattle Distribution and Liv ing Standards Although all farmers who market their cattle directly to the Botswana Meat Commission have benefited, the people who have gained most from the use of subsidies are those who have the largest herds. These gains are becoming increasingly significant, because of the trend towards the concentration of livestock into larger herds, and fewer owners 2 9 as Table IV below shows. In 1972, 5 percent of the cattle were in herds of between 1 and 10 cattle, but this figure had declined to 3.9 percent in 1984. In fact, this trend is evident for all herds of less than 100 cattle. On the other hand, while herds of over 100 cattle accounted for 23 percent of the cattle in 1972, by 1984 the figure was 45 percent. The main cause of the increasing concentration of ownership has been the drought. While large herds have better survival chances, smaller herds are more vulnerable. For example, during the 1980's, mortality for herds up to 10 animals was 65 percent compared to 7.2 percent for those over 150 (Arntzen,1989:79). Another reason for increasing concentration is that smaller 2 3 Many people without cattle have had to seek employment in the larger villages and towns or obtain jobs as cattle herders for invariably small wages. Impacts of Policies / 49 herds are less viable than larger ones due to the higher production costs per animal (Arntzen, 1989). T A B L E IV: L I V E S T O C K H E R D S ( 1 9 7 2 - 1 9 8 4 ) . Herd Size Percent of National Herd Category 1972 1979 1981 1984 1-10 5.0 2.5 3.4 3.9 1 1 - 2 0 1 3 . 0 9.9 8.5 7.6 2 1 - 4 0 2 6 . 0 2 4 . 9 17.1 16 .4 4 1 - 4 0 1 7 . 0 12 .4 1 1 . 6 11 .4 6 1 - 1 0 0 1 6 . 0 16 .5 1 4 . 0 15 .3 101 + 2 3 . 0 33 .8 4 5 . 4 4 5 . 4 Source: Arntzen and Veenendaal, 1986:xi. The proportion of families not owning cattle increased from 25 percent in 1970/71 to 32 percent in 1971/72 (Colclough and McCarthy, 1980:113), and by 1975, as many as 45 percent of rural households did not own any cattle (Colclough and McCarthy, 1980:112). More recent evidence corroborates these indications of changes in ownership patterns. Mogalakwe and Mpotokwane (1987:15) found that 57.6 percent of households had no cattle. Among cattle owners, there are large variations in numbers. Arntzen and Veenendaal (1986) have stated that about 30 percent of the cattle holders own 4 percent of the cattle while 8 percent of the population hold 45 percent. The increasing concentration of livestock ownership suggests a worsening of overall income distribution because cattle are the major determinant of rural income. Impacts of Policies / 50 Arntzen and Veenendaal (1986:xv) show that between 1978 and 1983, income from livestock accounted for between 75 and 100 percent of total agricultural income. While cattle are relatively resilient to drought, a single year without adequate rainfall can mean total ruin for households dependent on crops. For example, in 1981, the average income from crops was 140 percent higher than in 1978. However, by the following year, income from crops was only 9 percent of the 1978 amount (Arntzen and Veenendaal, 1986:xi). Recent data from the Botswana Agricultural Marketing Board as presented in Figure 5 show modest income from crops. Total crop income for farmers rose from Pula 4.4 million in 1984 to Pula 12 million in 1989. For the rural areas therefore, cattle not only bring wealth, but they also make a difference between financial independence and poverty. Figure 6 presents the distribution of income in 1975 and reveals a high level of disparity in earnings. For example, the poorest 40 percent of households received only 10 percent of incomes, while the richest 20 percent received 64.5 percent. The Gini coefficient - indicating inequality of income distribution - was 0.60 at that time (Chernichovsky et al, 1985:9). Conditions for much of the population have not changed significantly since the mid 1970's - recent data suggest only modest changes in income distribution. The Household Income Expenditure survey of 1985/86 suggests that the bottom 40 percent of households received 11 percent of the income, while the richest 20 percent earned 62 percent (Botswana Government, 1988:50). Both these figures are only modest variations on 1975. The 1986 survey also revealed that income disparities are more uneven in rural areas than in urban areas. The respective Gini coefficients Impacts of Policies / 51 1984 1985 1988 1987 1988 1989 Tear Figure 5. Income From Crops (1984-1989) Source: Author, based on Bank of Botswana, 1990. are 0.67 and 0.56, but "in kind" income from friends and relatives reduces the respective figures to 0.48 and 0.54. At the national level, "in kind" income reduces the Gini coefficient from 0.7 to 0.56 thus indicating the importance of financial transfers and non-monetary benefits. Another measure of the level of poverty is the Poverty Datum Line (PDL) which is a minimum consumption needs index. In 1975, almost 54 percent of the rural households had earnings below the PDL and were therefore suffering from absolute poverty (Colclough and Fallon, 1980). Arntzen (1989:67) estimates Impacts of Policies / 52 80 (J 0 « <3 S 0 0 6 el +> 0 b 0 *> C 0l 0 50 40 1 20 -10 V77\ VZA y~7 ~7 A V/A V/A V/ 7// //. //A V// A I I l I — — — I — I — — T 0-10 10-20 SO-30 30-40 40-50 50-80 80-70 70-80 80-90 Percentile Income Group Figure 6. Distribution of Rural Income (1975) Source: Chernichovsky et al,19S5. i 90-100 that by the middle of the last decade, the majority of rural households still received income below the PDL. Existing poverty suggests that income from livestock has not been evenly distributed. This is not surprising given the distribution of cattle and differences in the quality of beef produced by various groups of farmers. 3 0 Opschoor and Veenendaal (1986:12-13) have analysed the distribution of livestock earnings as follows: a uVeenendaaI arid Opschoor (1986) state that the average price per animal for traditional farmers in 1983 was Pula 162 while that for commercial farmers was Pula 220. Impacts of Policies / 53 1. Traditional farmers owning less than 100 cattle and constituting 94 percent of all farmers receive 33 percent of sales revenue. 2. Traditional farmers owning more than 100 cattle and comprising 6 percent of cattle farmers receive 22 percent of revenue. 3. The third group of farmers constituting ranchers, and comprising 0.6 percent of cattle farmers, receive 45 percent of sales revenue. Therefore, about 67 percent of revenue from livestock is received by about 7 percent of farmers. This analysis shows that the increase in income has not been proportional to cattle ownership. In view of disparities in earnings, one question which arises is whether the government is subsidising farmers most of whom do not need such assistance. Further, benefits for people without cattle have been marginal at best because of the failure of trickle down, and this failure of an important assumption of modernisation theory accounts for much of the existing poverty. Four conclusions can be drawn from the social and economic results of government policy for the sector. * First, the process of land reform has displaced some people. * Second, high producer prices have benefited major cattle owners primarily but those without cattle only marginally. * Third, the use of subsidies has mostly benefited the major cattle owners. * Fourth, the high aggregate incomes within the cattle sector are not reflected by improvements in living standards for the majority of households. Impacts of Policies / 54 These conclusions concur with the dependency theory views which suggest that economic growth does not necessarily lead to improved living conditions and that the distribution of benefits depends on the distribution of power. 4.2. E N V I R O N M E N T A L I M P A C T S This section examines the environmental consequences of the measures which have been implemented to support the cattle industry. The issues discussed are: * the relationship between the level of beef prices and the growth of the cattle population; * the effect of the increase in the cattle population on the condition of grazing land; * the impact of the veterinary fences on wildlife; and * the consequences of the use of chemicals on the natural environment. 4.2.1. Prices and Growth of the Cattle Population There has been considerable growth in the cattle population since the 1960's as illustrated in Figure 7. This increase is attributable both to improved veterinary care and to the increase in beef prices. Hubbard (1981) ascribes the initial increase in the herd in the earlier part of the decade to increases in income arising from employment in the public service, which enabled public officers to build herds and to afford drilling for water. In time, the ability to accumulate large numbers of livestock further increased due to both increasing Impacts of Policies / 55 incomes from formal employment as well as from cattle sales. 3 -T-2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -C 2 . 4 -3 2 .3 -<A ~ 2 .2 -0 ti 2.1 -a o 03 2 -a. S 3 1-9 -u «s 2~ 1 . 8 -rt 1.7 -U 1 . 8 -1 .5 -1.4 - j 1 .3 - / 1 .2 -1.1 -1 1988 Figure 7. Cattle Population (1966-1988) Source: Botswana Government, 1985; Arntzen and Veenendaal, 19S6; Bank of Botswana, 1989. In 1966, the national herd numbered 1,237,000, but by 1982 it had risen to just under 3 million before falling again because of drought. Data for the late 1980's indicate a recovery of the herd. However, drought -- by reducing the productive capacity of the land as well as the re-establishment of preferred species of grass - remains the main constraint to the further expansion of the cattle population. 1988 Impacts of Policies / 56 Arntzen and Veenendaal (1986) estimate that the potential carrying capacity of Botswana's rangelands is 17 hectares per livestock unit. 3 1 According to this estimate, if all the potential grazing land was used for livestock, the total number of cattle would be about 2.4 million (Arntzen and Veenendaal, 1986). However, since carrying capacity varies with rainfall, the productivity of grass, and the type of soil, the actual figure would vary seasonally, annually, and by ecological areas. 4.2.2. Condition of Grazing Land The increase in the livestock population has contributed to a process of land degradation which, according to Van Vegten (1982) and Arntzen and Veenendaal (1986), includes the following stages: 1. First, the quantity, quality, and persistence of original natural vegetation deteriorates and palatable grasses are overgrazed and destroyed (Van Vegten, 1982:101). This destruction leads to the development of bare patches. The strong water-competitive species of grass which prevent successful growth of inferior species no longer grow, and consequently soil moisture conditions deteriorate - since evaporation is no longer inhibited - and run off increases. Although the better species predominate, the less desirable plants are also evident at this stage. 2. Second, significant changes in the condition of surface soil - such as compacting - occur due to livestock trampling. The bare patches may 7 1 The carrying capacity lis defined as the average number of hectares required to support an average animal without having any adverse effect on the natural environment. Impacts of Policies / 57 gradually develop into bare plains as more grass is destroyed and invasion by pioneer grasses begins. These pioneers, or invaders, have a high rate of germination and are adapted to development in disturbed arid soils (Van Vegten, 1982:101). 3. Third, inferior plants - most of which are annuals - may establish themselves. However, in heavily damaged areas, they have difficulty in doing so and consequently bare ground may remain. Other types of range invaders which appear are woody species which lead to thornbush encroachment. 4. Fourth, erosion by wind or water removes the top soil and gully erosion sets in. By 1987, as a result of these processes, about 25 percent of the rangeland was degraded {corresponding to stage three above}, 5 percent had deteriorated {but not permanently}, and approximately 2 percent had suffered from desertification (Botswana Government, 1989:8). Figure 8 shows the condition of rangeland in 1984 and identifies areas with disturbed vegetation. There are two limitations to the map. First, the effects of drought and overgrazing are not separated. Second, the map does not show the effects of thornbush encroachment, which is another indication of land degradation. The implication of the latter is that the overall amount of damage to the land is under-represented. Nevertheless, the map shows that land degradation is general throughout the country. According to the map, the most affected areas are the Mopipi-Tsienyane area in central Botswana, Gumare-Etsha Impacts of Policies / 58 A r a n of Botswana Snowing Evidence of Range Degradation and Desertification * / r « » , . «>..--,. Figure 8. Rangeland Degradation (1984) r * . v D i s t r i c t B o u n d O f y B o u n d a r i e s o« P o r k s . R«*r rv t» Q f o r m ft a n e M s Source: Arntzen and Veenendaal, 1986. L E G E N D L o n J i a c d Areas o4 h i i c n a l * * Ranaja Degradat ion cntf P M c n t i a l D c M r t l f k u U o n t Eatcmar** Areas of Non-lni«**r»* tUra j r r k y a r f i r t a r * a r * " M o K J a J r M a r r t l f t c a f k x 4V C r M c m of O m r t i f b r a t i a n • MB*** of E c o t a f t r a l A rcaa M Boundar tn of EctJtogtcal A reas bWIWo P a r a PoaaU R J w Impacts of Policies / 59 in the northwest, and Bokspits-Tshabong in the southwest. In all these areas, degradation is almost exclusively attributable to livestock (Arntzen and Veenendaal, 1986). One of the most noticeable signs of land degradation in Botswana is bush encroachment onto former grazing land. The dynamics of bush encroachment including its speed and magnitude are illustrated by a study conducted in eastern Botswana between 1950 and 1975. While the study is not representative of exact trends throughout the country it demonstrates some possible results of the overuse of land in Botswana. In order to assess thornbush encroachment, the canopy cover of woody vegetation was mapped from aerial photographs taken in June 1950, August 1963, and June 1975 covering an area of 108 square kilometres. Crop cultivation was not common in the area and, therefore, the main influence on vegetation was grazing. Eight canopy cover classes were identified: 0 percent (of ground cover); 0-1, 1-5, 5-10, 10-30, 30-50, 50-75; and 75-100 percent. Canopy cover was related to above-ground biomass through a procedure which involved the following stages: 1. First, the relation between height and biomass was established by selecting 448 shrub and tree specimens at random, measuring their height, and weighing them. 2. Second, 30 squares each measuring 50 by 50 metres were selected at random in each of the canopy cover classes (except the 0 percent class). Impacts of Policies / 60 Within each of the squares, total above-ground woody-biomass was estimated, using the height-biomass relation. The average biomass of each group of 30 squares was considered to be representative for its particular canopy cover class. The results of the study are shown in Table V below. TABLE V: E N C R O A C H M E N T O F T H O R N B U S H (1950-1975). Canopy cover class Surface area covered by each canopy cover (%) 1950 1963 1975 0 7.6 6.1 5.7 0-1 41.4 23.8 3.0 1-5 38.1 40.2 29.6 5-10 7.1 10.1 28.2 10-30 3.6 12.0 13.6 30-50 1.3 6.0 7.2 50-75 0.5 0.6 11.6 75-100 0.4 1.2 1.1 Source: Van Vegten,1983. The table shows that between 1950 and 1975 the area with relatively little woody biomas decreased, while the area with denser cover increased. For example, the area with a canopy cover of between 1 and 5 percent increased from 38.1 percent in 1950 to 40.2 percent in 1963. This expansion was initially due to the encroachment of woody species on grassland. After 1963, continuing woody growth turned much of this 1-5 percent class to a higher class i.e 5-10 percent. As a result of this conversion, the surface area covered by class 1-5 percent had decreased from 40.2 percent to 29.6 percent by 1975, while the Impacts of Policies / 61 area covered by canopy cover class 5-10 increased from 10.1 percent in 1963 to 28.2 percent in 1975. Therefore, the increase of the latter class is a reflection of the 1-5 percent being converted to more woody savanna (Van Vegten, 1983). Conversion into woody biomas was not uniformly distributed. For example, the area with a cover class of 75-100 percent only increased from 0.4 percent to 1.1 percent throughout the period of the study. However, for the lower classes of canopy cover, the increase has been very significant. It is evident that within a relatively short time, bush encroachment can cause changes in vegetation and, therefore, in land use (Van Vegten, 1983). 4.2.3. Impact of Veterinary Fences on Wildlife The environmental effects of the cordon fences are shown by the deaths of wildlife. The animals which have been most affected by the fences are those which migrate annually northwards from the Kgalagadi in search of water. Although there is agreement between the government and its critics that wildlife has died (Balopi,1987; Owens and Owens, 1980; Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986), there is disagreement on the specific cause of mortality as well as on the number of deaths. Figures on how many animals have died as a result of the fences are both difficult to come by and are unreliable. Owens and Owens (1980) however suggest that the fences may have been responsible for the deaths of a quarter of a million wild animals. Although it is apparent that many animals - particularly wildebeest -Impacts of Policies / 62 have died, there is disagreement on whether the deaths are primarily attributable to the fences or to other factors such as the shortage of grazing for the animals (Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986). These authors have pointed to evidence from the past linking wildlife deaths to drought, such as in the 1930's before the first fence was constructed, and in the mid 1960's in areas where there were no fences. They have therefore concluded that it would be false to blame the deaths of wildlife on the fences and that drought may also be an important cause (Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986). Opschoor and Veenendaal (1986) and Williams (1988) suggest that the position of the groups which have opposed the fences may be changing. While fences may affect wildlife, they also keep cattle from the game reserves where grazing is generally better. These authors suggest that, for example, the Kuke fence, which separates Ngamiland from the Central Kgalagadi Game Reserve, may be stopping intrusion into the reserve. Similarly, the Buffalo fence in the Okavango may be protecting the area from cattle. The desire for access to the game parks is corroborated by evidence from the national conservation strategy consultations which suggests that cattle should be allowed to graze in the parks (Department of Town and Regional Planning, 1987). Despite the harm which they are causing, the fences are unlikely to be dismantled. There have been no disease outbreaks since most of the fences were constructed in the early 1980s, and this gives some credibility to suggestions that government was right to use the fences as a disease control measure. Impacts of Policies / 63 4.2.4. Consequences of the Use of Chemicals Little research has been done on the effects of endosulfan and dieldrin in Botswana. However, a monitoring programme by the British Overseas Development Agency (ODA) in 1981 arrived at the following conclusions: * Applied in low doses, endosulfan kills tsetse effectively. * Other invertebrate animals examined were affected either marginally or not at all. * Although endosulfan is highly toxic to fish, even in low doses, actual fish kills, even after serial spraying were low. Further, concentrations in live fish were low and the fish posed no danger to humans when eaten. * Endosulfan doses probably do not accumulate in the food chain. * Endosulfan residues persisted in water for three weeks following spraying. * Navigational errors and other accidents caused high localised insecticide dosages resulting in high fish mortality (Cited in Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986:27-28). Despite these conclusions, Opschoor and Veenendaal (1986) caution that proper documentation on the persistence of endosulfan and its degradation products was lacking in the study. They also point out that other studies have shown that 50 percent of endosulfan can persist in the soil for up to two years (Opschoor and Veenendaal, 1986:28). Further, residues of endosulfan have been detected up to 50 kilometres downwind of spraying sites, yet the ODA report states that "....nothing is known...about the form in which the insecticide exists after such a downwind journey" (Overseas Development Agency, 1981:12). Impacts of Policies / 64 Four conclusions can be made from the discussion of the environmental impacts of policies for the livestock sector. * First, the high prices have led to an increase in the cattle population by encouraging the ownership of cattle. * Second, the high cattle population has caused land degradation. * Third, the fences have caused considerable death of wildlife. * Fourth, the impacts of the use of chemicals to eradicate tsetse have not been adequately investigated and are therefore uncertain. 4.3. D E P E N D E N C E This section seeks to show how association with the European Community has made Botswana vulnerable to external changes in policy. This will be undertaken by discussing: * the instability of external markets and its implications for income received by Botswana cattle producers and * the potential effects of opinions of Botswana's conservation record on E E C policy towards Botswana. 4.3.1. Instability of External Markets There has been a number of threats to the security of beef markets since the mid 1970's. The first problem arose in 1974 and was triggered mainly by changing political circumstances in the United Kingdom when the country joined the E E C and subsequently beef imports were suspended. Fortunately for Impacts of Policies / 65 Botswana, the South African market at this time was undersupplied from other sources and Botswana was consequently able to exceed her export quota to South Africa. Had this alternative not existed, Botswana would have had to sell in much lower-priced markets, resulting in a sharp decline in revenues and incomes leading to internal instability (Hubbard, 1986). The second external problem came towards the end of the decade and resulted from market restrictions imposed by the Community following an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Botswana in October 1977. Although the outbreak occurred in Ngamiland and was confined to northern Botswana, all beef exports from Botswana to the European Community were banned. Attempts to resume sales were opposed many times by the Standing Veterinary Committee until sales to the United Kingdom and to the French overseas department of L a Reunion were permitted. Hubbard (1986:160) suggests that the concessions which Botswana obtained from Lome I were largely political decisions taken despite opposition from European Community agriculture ministers who had argued specifically for the retention of the levy. The outbreak of foot and mouth in the late 70's, therefore, presented an argument against concessions to beef exporters. The apparent reason for the partial restoration of trade was concern over the political and social implications for Botswana of drastic reductions in producer prices (Hubbard, 1986). Sales of beef from Ngamiland to the E E C have still not been resumed. Impacts of Policies / 66 The existence of cattle disease and the consequent ban on exports have undermined Botswana's gains from the Lome Conventions. Figure 9 below presents information on the destination of beef between 1974 and 1988. The most significant revelation is that there have been marked fluctuations in the quantity of beef exported to the European Community, as data for 1978, 1980 and 1981 reveal. These fluctuations correspond to the periods of foot and mouth disease, and imply variations in total incomes for cattle producers. The low percentage of exports in 1974 reflects the impact of the reduction of imports by the European Community. o Y e a r B B E E C K M South Africa H I Other Figure 9. Destination of Beef Exports Source: Fidzani,1985; Delegation of the European Communities, 1988. Impacts of Policies / 67 4.3.2. Questions on Commitment to Conservation The third threat to the cattle industry has come from the pressure by some environmental groups in Europe and the United States during the 1980's. In May 1983 the European Commission received a written three-part request from Stanley Johnson, a British member of the European Parliament. The first part requested that the E E C and the Botswana government investigate the impact of the veterinary fences and their necessity. The second part asked the Commission to review the protocol relating to Botswana beef imports in order to determine whether the arrangement was contributing to the expansion of the cattle herd, and therefore leading to the loss of habitat and interference with wildlife (Johnson, 1983). 3 2 The third part asked the Commission to ensure that funds which had been provided to Botswana under Lome II for wildlife and tourism were in fact used for that purpose, including wildlife in the Kgalagadi. The E E C Commission's response was that it was aware of the environmental results of the policies and that it intended to review these problems with the government of Botswana and facilitate their solution. In the United States, groups which have been most concerned about the impact of livestock policy on wildlife and grazing land include the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council which sent a delegation to Botswana in connection with the problems in March 1988. A draft memorandum of agreement was submitted to the government for consideration following the visit '^The E E C Council had resolved at the end of 1982 that the environmental impact of community development policies should be a priority area for E E C concern. Impacts of Policies / 68 and proposed: 1. The exchange of information and expertise to ensure good land management and the environmental soundness of development projects. 2. Consultation on matters relating to the implementation of the National Land Management and Livestock Project. 3. Botswana's consent to the public release outside the country of final reports pertaining to projects, studies and policies. 4. The provision of assistance to Botswana by the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council within their means. Although this memorandum has not been signed by the government of Botswana, criticism appears to have quietened. Visits to the United States by Botswana delegations over the past few years may have contributed to this outcome. The environmental debates have touched on the sensitive issue of sovereignty. Faced with criticism from outside, the then Honourable Minister for Local Government and Lands asserted that "Botswana is a sovereign, independent state that is master to its own destiny" (Balopi, 1987:6). Despite this assertion, it is nevertheless true that the environmental lobby in both the United States and the European countries has a lot of influence which can ultimately shape public opinion or policy on Botswana. This means that Botswana cannot make policy in isolation but must also respond at times to external pressures. Compared to the economic transformation of the last two and a half decades, the concerns which this part of the thesis have identified might appear to be secondary. They nevertheless point out the vulnerability of the cattle sector Impacts of Policies / 69 of the economy to changes in opinions and policies of other nations and institutions. This suggests that the future benefits from the sector are not guaranteed, or wholly within the power of government. Three points to emerge from the preceding discussion of the relationship between Botswana and the European Community are: * First, changes in political circumstances in the European Community can adversely affect policy towards Botswana. * Second, changing attitudes towards the use and regulation of the natural environment in the E E C countries could lead to a sudden change in the currently favourable terms of trade for Botswana and consequently, in income reductions from the sector. * Third, the relationship between Botswana and the E C is unequal as it is the Community which mainly determines the conditions under which trade is conducted. 4.4. R E C E N T D E V E L O P M E N T S The attitude of the government towards some of the preceding issues appears to be changing. Minister Balopi (1987) has referred to the 'painful and costly' lessons from past mistakes associated with the alignment of the fences, and has stated that future fences must consider wildlife movement. The development and conservation of natural resources was a major theme under Lome III, and in 1986, the European Community agreed to support Impacts of Policies / 70 a project on "The Initial Measures for the Conservation of the Kgalagadi Ecosystem." The project, started in 1985, initially was funded from the Botswana government's domestic development funds. Its purpose was to provide water for wildlife dying from thirst. The inception of the project was also probably a response to criticism that the veterinary fences were preventing wildlife from reaching water sources. With regard to land issues, Balopi (1987) has suggested that the issue of dual land rights whereby ranchers continue to have access to communal land, will be reviewed. Another step which government expects will improve land policy is the National Land Management and Livestock Project whose purpose is to improve the management of both ranches and communal land (Balopi, 1987). As part of this initiative, it is planned to create some pilot projects which will investigate the viability of community-controlled grazing. Following the 1981 ODA report, there have been some changes to the spraying programme. The amount of endosulfan used has been reduced as has the number of annual spray runs from five to four (Merron, 1990:4). Further, a decision has been taken to begin spraying from 1990 in May rather than in July and to stop spraying in August rather than in October. This decision was intended to reduce mortality by avoiding spraying during the main fish spawning season. However, the most important project which the government has embarked on is the preparation of a national conservation strategy, which seeks to plan for Impacts of Policies / 71 and manage collectively all the resources of the nation, rather than regulate each of them separately. Some of the funds for this project were provided by the European Community. The roots of current thinking in Botswana on the environment and development are in part a continuation of the concerns and ideas from the 1970's relating to resource conservation. However, the current efforts by the government also reflect ideas and pressures emanating from outside the country. For example, the national conservation strategy is based on ideas from the world conservation strategy, while the decision to provide water for wildlife partly results from concerns of the E E C . It should nevetherless be borne in mind that these changes appear to be motivated more by environmental concerns rather than by any ideas of justice. Whether current thinking will soon bring tangible change to both the natural environment and living standards is doubtful, largely because there is no consensus on appropriate solutions to some of the most critical issues involved including the amount and distribution of livestock. Finally, although the annual beef quota for the A C P countries increased by about 30 percent under Lome IV, Botswana's quota was not increased despite a request for an additional 3,000 tonnes (Bank of Botswana, 1990:28). There appear to be two possible explanations for this. First, Botswana has never fullfilled her quota and, therefore, appears not to need an increase. Second, it was unlikely that the E E C could increase the quota given arguments linking access to the high-priced European Community market to the increase in cattle numbers and therefore to land degradation (See Johnson, 1983). Impacts of Policies / 72 Four overall conclusions can be drawn from the implementation of livestock policy in Botswana: 1. First, it is clear that the policies helped to facilitate rapid economic growth. 2. Second, the pursuit of economic growth is addictive, and can supersede other issues such as inequity and environmental decline. 3. Third, given the environmental and social costs, it is doubtful whether such policies can lead to a sustainable form of development. 4. Fourth, it is apparent from the experience of the livestock sector that modernisation does create economic and political vulnerability to external economic and political decisions. Given these conclusions, it appears that an approach which considers sustainability, equity and self-determination, in addition to economic growth, should be considered. o C H A P T E R 5. R E T H I N K I N G D E V E L O P M E N T The preceding discussion of the policies for the livestock sector suggests that the current approach to development is not working. An approach which recognises and addresses the problems identified by drawing on relevant theory may help to improve the results of development planning by making it more ecologically sensitive, of benefit to more people, and less dependent on external decisions. Since dependency theory is more a critique, than a prescription for development, an alternative form of development should be sought from other theories. Recent approaches to development have stressed the need for development to encompass the principles of democracy, participation and self determination (Friedmann, 1987; Forester, 1989; Gardner, 1988), and ecological integrity (Gardner, 1988; Rees, 1988). These approaches reject the concepts of centralised power, lack of participation, as well as the pursuit of economic growth as the only index of progress - all of which are central to modernisation theory. Gardner (1988) has propounded development principles which may be helpful in suggesting alternative and sustainable forms of development. These principles fall into two categories which both describe the ends of decision-making as well as its means. (a) Substantive principles which identify the ends of decision making: * satisfaction of human needs. * maintenance of ecological integrity. * achievement of equity and social justice. * provision for social self-determination. 73 Rethinking Development / 74 (b) Process principles which describe the means of decision making and suggest that approaches to sustainable development must be: * goal seeking. * relational or systems-oriented. * adaptive. * interactive. The principles address the assumed goals of development, which are material improvement for most of the population, ecological sustainability, and self determination. They also address the concerns which have arisen from past development policy namely, the preoccupation with economic growth and the neglect of issues of equity, the natural environment, as well as political and economic dependence. In the context of the issues raised in the thesis, the principles have the following implications. 5.1. SATISFACTION OF HUMAN NEEDS The first principle places great importance on qualitative forms of development, and points out that people will have no interest in participating in conservation if their material and cultural needs are not met. One way of satisfying the material needs could be to create employment outside the livestock sector such as through the development of small-scale enterprises which communities can manage. Such projects will have a good chance of success if the intended beneficiaries perceive direct benefits or when they address an urgent need (Arntzen, 1988; Keatimilwe and Mpotokwane,1988). Arntzen (1988) has also Rethinking Development / 75 attributed the success of projects to minimal interference with existing local structures and existing practices. Gardner (1988) has stated that development should help to maintain the coherence and survival of human organisations so that they may help to meet their needs. This view rejects modernisation's drive-, against the maintenance of tradition, and contends that tradition is capable of meeting both material and spiritual needs. Therefore the good aspects of tradition such as its institutions, practices, and regulations which contribute towards development and conservation should be enhanced. Traditional regulations in Botswana include prohibitions on the harvesting of certain species of grass at certain times of the year. Practices include consultation,3 3 and social institutions include the community which provides vital support to its members. 5.2. M A I N T E N A N C E O F E C O L O G I C A L I N T E G R I T Y The second of the substantive principles stresses the need to recognise and develop within the carrying capacity of resources. Carrying capacity is a measure of the population which can be supported without permanently damaging the resource base. Therefore, for development to be sustainable it must ensure that the productive capacity of the environment is not destroyed but maintained. 3 a I n practice it is difficult for the poor to be critical of the leadership. Personal and political self-interest cannot be completely eliminated from public policy because decision-makers are not value-free. Unequal influence also exists between government departments and non-government bodies, as well as between various groups within government. However, the involvement of people can help mitigate such self-interest. Rethinking Development / 76 The maintenance of the earth's productive capacity is important because living systems continuously reproduce themselves and in the process regulate the physical environment of the earth within limits which permit life to exist (Rees, 1988). However this ability to reproduce is only possible if the essential structure of the relationships between the different forms of life is not disturbed. The extinction of species and destruction of ecosystems may undermine this ability of the earth to support life. The implication of this for planning in Botswana is that the potential ecological impacts of development must be determined before such development is actually undertaken. Before both the fencing and tsetse spraying projects were implemented, for example, there was no assessment of possible ecological impacts. The adverse ecological impacts which have arisen with respect to wildlife show that policies for the livestock sector cannot be decided in isolation from other policies. Where there are already too many people using a resource, per capita consumption has to be reduced. In the context of the Botswana beef industry, this implies stock limitation. Although ecological concerns may have been considered in the past, ecological integrity is not a key consideration in decisions. Rather, economic efficiency is the major concern. 5.3. A C H I E V E M E N T O F E Q U I T Y A N D S O C I A L J U S T I C E This principle emphasizes equity between generations, social groups, and between nations (Gardner, 1988). Equity between generations depends on decision-making which takes account of inter-generational consequences. This means Rethinking Development / 77 that enjoyment of existing benefits should not jeopardise prospects for future generations. At the rate at which land is currently deteriorating, this is becoming increasingly doubtful. While present socio-economic development is important, so is the responsibility of this generation for securing the welfare of future generations. Ensuring inter-generational equity is very difficult given urgent current needs and widespread poverty, but ought nonetheless to be pursued. Equity among social groups implies equitable access to resources and a fair allocation of costs and benefits. This means that, in addition to getting benefits, farmers, for example, should be responsible for the cost of land restoration. However, this is politically difficult to achieve given the influence of groups which stand to lose from such a measure. Neither equity nor social justice have been achieved by the policies discussed. For example, the Tribal Grazing Land Policy did not adequately consider the needs of small farmers or those of non-cattle owners. Equity at the international level requires a reform of economic relationships between the underdeveloped and the industrialised nations, as well as freedom to choose modes of development which any nation may consider appropriate. 5.4. P R O V I S I O N F O R S O C I A L S E L F - D E T E R M I N A T I O N The concept of participation underlies the last of the substantive principles. The principle emphasises self reliance, individual development, local and Rethinking Development / 78 community initiative and control in decision making (Gardner, 1988), and is based on the contention that planning is not a rational activity which can lead to decisions without the input of the people (Mahayni and Guendel,1989). Goodman (1972) suggests that past attempts to increase participation have been meaningless, and states that: advocacy planning and other citizen participation programmes could help maintain this mask (of rationality and science) by allowing the poor to administer their own state of dependency. The poor could administer their own welfare programmes, have their own lawyers, their own planners and architects, so long as the economic structure remained intact - so long as the basic distribution of wealth, hence real power, remained constant (Goodman, 1972:212). There is a movement which seeks to put individuals and communities into the process of development so that they may be involved in determining their own future (Friedmann, 1987; Forester, 1989). This movement results from disillusionment with the nature of current development processes and their failure to address the needs of the people and maintains that the distribution of power is the main determinant of the results of decision making. In the case of the policies discussed, participation was clearly lacking. There was minimal consultation before the fences were constructed (Hobbs,1983), and the consultation programme which was carried out prior to the implementation of the 1975 land reform was inadequate (Picard, 1980). In essence, the people were being asked to ratify decisions which had already been taken. The only questions raised related to possible modifications rather than to whether or not to implement the policy. There is also no evidence of consultation before Rethinking Development / 79 the spraying programme in the Okavango began. Another flaw in the existing participation process is that institutional structures discourage participation since once a formal participation process has been completed, there is no way in which the general public can make continuing input. Thus, there has been no comprehensive public review of the T G L P or of the fencing programme despite the problems experienced. It is unlikely that people can participate equally when they are unequal in other respects, but Forester (1989) lists some useful strategies that may be taken to break the distorted system of inadequate communication and the unequal access to power which is its consequence. These are: 1. Creation of networks of information and communication. 2. Education of groups which are presently uninformed about planning issues. 3. Development of organisational and communication skills to work with groups and conflict situations. 4. Encouragement of independent and community-based project reviews (Forester, 1989). There is no precedent for such strategies in Botswana, largely because most people are too absorbed in efforts simply to make a living, and do not consider changing the system to be a priority, or a possibility. The conception that planners should be involved in attempts to increase the power of communities however differs from the perspective of Friedmann (1987), who argues that the professional planner may hinder true grass roots Rethinking Development / 80 professional practice: ....the planner's role in radical practice is severely restricted. For in social transformation, theory and practice becomes everyone's concern; responsibilities for both are multiple and overlapping. Terms such as mediation, mediator, and role suggest a technical division of labour....But in radical practice, the set of mediating roles is not clearly defined.... (Friedmann, 1987:393). This situation may become the case in the latter stages of the transformation process, but it would certainly take a long time for theory and practice to become everyone's concern. Before that can be achieved, planners will continue to have a role to play in educating the public to appreciate what its role might be in transforming the situation. There is likely to be consultation in the future over other issues, but how seriously the government will be committed to consultation would seem to depend on what the anticipated response will be. For some issues, there is unlikely to be consultation if the views of the people differ substantially from those of government. It is therefore often true that "in reality they (the people) neither raise nor decide issues and the issues that shape their fate are normally raised and decided for them" (Schumpeter, 1942:264). 5.5. G O A L S E E K I N G The first of the process principles suggests that approaches to sustainable development should pursue pre-identified goals rather than simply react to situations as they arise. This calls for long term planning, and for an Rethinking Development / 81 imaginative and long term view of the utilisation of all resources including grazing land and wildlife. Long term planning is important in policy formulation where the effects of short term individual policy decisions may have very important and sometimes unintended consequences. However, while it is important that planning should address very profound issues, since these often have the greatest impact on the lives of citizens, it is equally important that planning bears quick and tangible results. In this respect it is necessary to adopt realistic planning strategies. It would be too idealistic to expect all issues to be addressed in a comprehensive manner. Therefore, the comprehensiveness of the planning process should be limited to the key areas of concern. Otherwise planning can become a very unwieldy process and without conclusion. In addition to having clearly formulated goals, it is important that options for possible alternative action be considered. This does not appear to have happened in the cases of the tsetse eradication campaign, the T G L P , or the construction of the disease control fences. The fences were a quick response to a single goal (maintaining access to the European Community). In the case of the T G L P , goals were identified (to stop land degradation and to improve rural incomes), but their feasibility, and the possible consequences of the strategy for their attainment were not considered. The spraying campaign, too, had one goal (to eradicate the tsetse fly), but it did not take account of possible impacts of doing so. A partial assessment was only done after many years of endosulfan use. The short time within which some of the decisions have to be taken Rethinking Development / 82 reduces the alternatives that can in fact be considered - such as in the case of the veterinary fences. 5.6. RELATIONAL OR SYSTEMS ORIENTED The second of the process principles urges the need to recognise that dynamics and linkages exist within and between systems, as well as in regard to the spatial and temporal context of decision making. For example, there is need to recognise the inter-dependence between economic development and the conservation of resources, as well as between the human and the biophysical environment. The temporal context of decision-making means recognising that current decisions have future implications. For example, the privatisation of land affects options on future land use and availability. The spatial context means that decisions in one geographical area may have unintended results in another. Decisions cannot be taken in isolation, but rather must be made in a wider context which recognises such relationships. Fortunately, it is increasingly recognised that the single project approach to making decisions is deficient since many environmental problems arise from the aggregate results of individual projects (Arntzen, 1989). Rethinking Development / 83 5.7. A D A P T I V E The third process principle suggests that strategies for sustainable development must anticipate, monitor and use the results of information feedback. Approaches to solving problems should not be standardised, but rather there is need for creativity and innovation as new knowledge regarding problems and solutions is acquired through monitoring and learning by doing. Monitoring facilitates such learning, and new knowledge can be used to guide and improve future decisions. In the case of the fences, knowledge on impacts has been acquired at great cost, but will be useful in future (Balopi, 1987). Although some monitoring of endosulfan has taken place and some remedial measures implemented, there has been no assessment of the effects of dieldrin and therefore no changes to that component of the spraying project have occurred. The use of feedback is occurring with regard to land management, as is shown by the introduction of the National Livestock and Management Project. 5.8. I N T E R A C T I V E The last of the principles emphasizes the need for collaboration between professionals. The basis of this principle is that no single group of professionals possesses enough knowledge to act on its own. Although even the combined knowledge and judgement of professionals is sometimes insufficient to reach appropriate decisions, it does help to reduce the probability of bad ones. Rethinking Development / 84 There is no evidence indicating much collaboration between the Ministry of Agriculture and other government departments before the construction of the fences. The decision to isolate the north was taken quickly to avoid exclusion from the European Community market. Neither is there any evidence of collaboration prior to the spraying campaign. Discussions did take place between government officials before the T G L P was implemented, but as Picard (1980) has pointed out, the purpose was largely to solicit ideas on how the policy should be implemented rather than opinions as to whether it should be implemented. There is need to realise that decisions are taken in a context of limited knowledge and therefore that the careful consideration of consequences is very important. The T G L P , for example, overestimated the amount of land that was available, failed to conduct a comprehensive water survey before land was zoned for ranching, and wrongly assumed that the land zoned for ranching was unoccupied. It also appears that migration patterns of wildlife were not considered in the case of the veterinary fences. Proper collaboration might have helped to avert such problems. Interaction should not be limited to government institutions, but should be extended to private sector and non-governmental organisations. Although opinions on issues vary greatly within government departments, there is likely to be less exploration of new ideas if discussion is confined to government departments. C H A P T E R 6. C O N C L U S I O N A N D R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S The study has identified three negative environmental impacts of cattle production namely land degradation resulting from large numbers of cattle; wildlife mortality, which is partly a consequence of fences; and the uncertain effects of the use of chemicals. The social and economic impacts of policies for the livestock sector are economic growth benefiting few people, the skewed nature of cattle ownership, the displacement of people resulting from land reform, additional benefits to major cattle owners arising from high prices and subsidies, and the lack of improvement in general living conditions for the people despite high aggregate incomes. The examination of the influence that the E E C and environmental groups in Europe and North America have on the Botswana cattle sector has pointed out how changes in political circumstances and opinions outside the country can adversely affect policy towards Botswana. Therefore, the modernisation of the cattle sector in Botswana has been only a partial success. Economic growth has been attained at the expense of the quality of the natural environment and without regard to social equity. In addition, the policies have created economic and political vulnerability to external economic and political decisions. The consequences of current policies suggest that the modernisation paradigm on which they are based is flawed. 85 Conclusion and Recommendations / 86 Dependency critiques of modernisation theory appear to be largely valid. The process of development in Botswana has not always favoured the poor as is illustrated by the trends in the ownership of cattle and the displacement of people; the results of economic growth have largely benefited those who have influence as the distribution of incomes shows; the cattle sector is dominated by concerns regarding ensuring access to external markets, and the affairs of the Republic are significantly influenced by external political and economic factors as relations with the E E C demonstrate. It is also evident that past policy decisions were made in a disjointed manner and that due regard was not given to their overall implications. There is need to consider the ecological impacts of development as well as for collaboration between citizens and professionals, among government institutions, and between government and non-government organisations, However, the thesis cautions against excessive idealism and suggests a combination of incremental and comprehensive approaches to problem solving. Since the current approach to development is not working, the thesis suggests that future policy make use of such principles as those developed by Gardner (1988). These principles are intended to make development more ecologically sensitive, of benefit to more people, and less reliant on outside decisions. A chosen development strategy ultimately determines the kind of society that emerges. The principles suggested may relieve the environmental problems identified and reduce current social polarisation. Conclusion and Recommendations / 87 6.1. A R E A S F O R I N V E S T I G A T I O N This thesis has sought primarily to identify a process and some goals which may be used to resolve problems in the cattle sector of Botswana, and has not attempted to prescribe specific solutions. It is important nonetheless to identify areas which may be investigated for possible solutions. 1. The first recommendation is that as soon as practicable, the government undertake a comprehensive investigation into the costs and benefits of pesticide use. If possible, it is advisable to stop their use until better knowledge regarding their effects is available. In any case, their use should not be expanded until such information has been obtained. This measure would support the principle of ecological integrity. 2. Second, it is suggested that, in order to meet the material needs of citizens and to reduce the environmental problems arising from cattle production, the government should study the structural and distributional impacts of redirecting gradually the cattle subsidies to programmes to support other commodity production in rural areas. Such programmes could include the utilisation of natural resources such as wood, thatching grass, reeds, and clays for the manufacture of various items which may be used to replace costly imported ones, or which may be sold to generate additional income. These items include baskets, mats, household utensils, chairs, curios and jewellery. Other products of potentially important commercial value include the grapple plant, which is used as an antidote for arthritis and Conclusion and Recommendations / 88 the cocoons of the gonameta moth used for silk production. Individuals, or communities, could be involved in harvesting and processing these products. At present the potential of these products is greatly underutilised because of organisational, infrastructural and marketing problems. The above suggestions on the type of projects which might be implemented to help the poor seek to utilise opportunities which are easily accessible, are not material or energy-intensive, are labour intensive, require little investment of capital, and from which quick and direct benefits may accrue. A possible innovation could involve project funding using the E E C levy rebate. Although the Community has in the past stipulated that the levy should be used to support the livestock sector, current environmental concerns may make the European Community more receptive to alternative uses. Such projects could reduce pressure on land by providing other ways of making a living in the rural areas. Thinking must move beyond livestock and consider other activities from which the people can benefit directly. 3. The third recommendation is that policies to promote good land management should be adopted. Such policies could include: * The management of land through community-controlled grazing areas. This concept suggests that good management does not necessarily depend on individual ownership. Important factors which may have to be considered are the coherence of communities and their willingness to cooperate. * Incentives which encourage rangeland restoration such as the prevention of bush encroachment through labour-intensive cutting. Conclusion and Recommendations / 89 The involvement of the people would help achieve self-determination, while the success of the policies would result in both ecological integrity and the satisfaction of material needs. 4. Fourth, the government should ensure that environmental and social impact studies are conducted prior to major projects and that ecological integrity becomes an important factor in development policy. Apart from promoting ecological integrity, such an approach would help promote equity and social justice, and encourage collaboration in decision-making. 5. The final recommendation is that, in order to promote self-determination and collaboration, the participation of the nation in development should be encouraged through: * practical involvement of non-governmental organisations; * better collaboration by government departments with responsibility for environmental and resource management. While the government has relatively large financial and technical resources, it cannot achieve all development goals on its own because of the bureaucratic structures which often delay action. In the context of the principles suggested, it is feasible for the people to have an active role in the development of community grazing as well as in the formulation of projects which may use the E E C levy rebate or other government revenue. Given the business arrangements and practices of today's state, it is not possible for all citizens to be involved directly in the resolution of all issues. For most people the areas of involvement and the details which they can address are Conclusion and Recommendations / 90 limited. It is unlikely, for example, that most people will fully comprehend the range of issues relating to subsidies, marketing and pricing policies, and their effect on rangeland. But they do understand the problems which they face directly, and some of the possible solutions, and to that extent they must be involved. Having stressed the importance of participation in decision making, it is also important that the length of the participation process not be excessive since this could precipitate a loss of interest. While part of the role of planning is to encourage a comprehensive and innovative review of issues, it is equally important that planning bear quick and tangible results. 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Laclau, E 1971 "Feudalism and Capitalism in Latin America", New Left Review, No.67, New Left Review Ltd, London. Linear, M 1985 "The Tsetse War", The Ecologist, Vol.15 No. 1/2, Ecosystems Ltd, England. Lloyds Bank, 1981 Economic Report: Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, London. Lloyds Bank 1986 Botswana: Economic Report 1986, London. Mahayni, K G and Guendel, J 1989 Planning Theory and the Political Economy  Perspective, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association of the Collegiate Schools of Planning, Portland, Oregon. / 97 Marini, R M 1965 "Brazilian 'Interdependence' and Imperialist Integration", Monthly Review, Vol.17 No.7, Monthly Review Inc., New York. Marini, R M 1972 "Brazilian Sub-Imperialism", Monthly Review, Vol.23 No.9, Monthly Review Inc., New York. Merron, G 1990 Tsetse and Fish: The Physiological and Toxicological Effects of  Aerial Spraying with Insecticides of Fish Stocks of the Okavango Delta, Kgalagadi Conservation Society Newsletter, Vol.27, Gaborone. Mogalakwe, M K and Mpotokwane, M A 1987 National Conservation Strategy:  Household Opinion Survey, Department of Town and Regional Planning, Gaborone. Molutsi, P 1988 "The State, Environment and Peasant Consciousness in Botswana", in Review of African Political Economy, No.42, University of Keele, England. Morrison, S 1986 "Dilemmas of Sustaining Parastatal Success: The Botswana Meat Commission", IDS Bulletin, Vol.17 No. l , Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton. Murphy, C 1984 The Emergence of the New International Economic Order  Ideology, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado. Myrdal, G 1957 Economic Theory and Under-Developed Regions, Gerald Duckworth, London. Opschoor, J B and Veenendaal, E M 1986 Botswana's Beef Exports to the E E C :  Economic Development at the Expense of a Deteriorating Environment, Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University, Amsterdam. / 98 Overseas Development Administration, 1981 The Environmental Impact of Aerosols  of Endosulfan Applied for Tsetse Fly Control in the Okavango Delta,  Botswana, London. Owens, Mark and Delia 1980 "Fences of Death", African Wildlife, Vol.34 No.6, Wildlife Society of Southern Africa, Linden, South Africa. Perrings, C, Opschoor, H and Pearce, D 1988 Botswana National Conservation  Strategy: Natural Resource Conservation and Development, Department of Town and Regional Planning, Gaborone. Picard, L A 1980 "Cattle, Bureaucrats, and Public Policy: Land tenure Changes in Botswana", Comparative Political Studies, Vol.13 No.3, Sage Publications. Picard, L A 1985 "From Bechuanaland to Botswana: An Overview", in Picard, L A (Ed) Politics and Development in Southern Africa: The Evolution of  Modern Botswana, University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln. Picard, L A 1987 The Politics of Development in Botswana:A Model for Success?, Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colorado. Prebisch, R 1971 Change and Development: Latin America's Great Task, Praeger Publishers, New York. Rees, W E 1989 The Ecological Meaning of Environment-Economy Integration, Discussion Paper No. 18, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. Rostow, W W 1960 The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non Communist  Manifesto, Cambridge University Press. Schumpeter, J A 1942 Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, Harper and Brothers, New York. / 99 Sierra Club, 1988 The Impact of the Livestock Industry in Botswana on the  Environment, Sierra Club, Washington, D.C. 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Valenzuela, J S and Valenzuela, V 1984 "Modernisation and Dependency: Alternative Perspectives in the Study of Latin American Underdevelopment", in Seligson, M A (Ed) 1984 The Gap Between the Rich and the Poor - Contending Perspectives on the Political economy of Development, Westview Press, Boulder. Van Vegten, J A 1982 "Increasing Stock Numbers on Deteriorating Rangeland", in Proceedings of the Symposium on Botswana's First Livestock Development  Project and its Future Implications, National Institute for Research, University of Botswana. Van Vegten, J A 1983 "Thornbush Encroachment in a Savanna Ecosystem in Eastern Botswana", Vegetatio, No.56, Dr W Junk Publishers, The Hague. / 100 Williams, L 1988 Trip Report of Visit to Botswana, Sierra club, Washington, D.C. Wily, L 1981 The T G L P and Hunter-Gatherers: A Case Study in Land Politics, Working Paper No.33, National Institute for Research, University of Botswana, Gaborone. Wirth, D A 1988 Trip Report of David A. Wirth: Natural Resources Defense  Council, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C. A P P E N D I X 1: S T R U C T U R A L I S T C R I T I Q U E S O F M O D E R N I S A T I O N The first criticism of modernisation theory came from structuralist theorists in Europe and North America in the 1950's. In a 1957 publication entitled Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, Gunnar Myrdal introduced the concept of cumulative causation which suggested that development, -as conceived by the modernisation school, would result in deepening regional disparities. Myrdal's theory of cumulative" causation argued that the notion of a stable equilibrium - which modernisation assumed - could not be used to explain changes in social systems. This was because a change within a social system in one direction would not necessarily result in countervailing changes and stabilisation. Myrdal contended that on the contrary, a change could result in supporting changes which could push a system in one direction and away from equilibrium (Myrdal, 1957). Myrdal's theory drew on earlier structuralist concepts of vicious circles by Winslow (1951) 3 4 and Nurkse (195 2) 3 5 which were precursors of the dependency approach. Together with Singer and Seers, Myrdal applied this reasoning to the concept of free trade and argued that it would not mitigate income differentials between countries, but would instead increase them. They contended that underdevelopment was primarily a problem of relations between nations, rather 3 4Winslow, C E A, 1951 The Cost of Sickness and the Price of Health, Monograph series No. 7, Geneva 3 5 Nurkse, R 1952 Some Aspects of Capital Accumulation in Underdeveloped  Countries, Cairo. 101 / 102 than one of scarcity of resources and that development to the misfavoured party implied that its position in the structure would deteriorate. The structuralists considered the division of labour between the central and peripheral countries to be an obstruction to development because the underdeveloped countries suffered from deteriorating terms of trade. Their conclusion was that the periphery should not specialise in commodities in which it had comparative advantage, but should seek to alter the structure of comparative advantages by investing in industrialisation. This led to the wide adoption of policies of import substitution. APPENDIX 2: CHALLENGES TO DEPENDENCY THEORY It should be noted that despite its usefulness, dependency theory has not escaped criticism. Although the theory was largely inspired by Marxist thought, it also represented a departure from some of the fundamental claims of Marxism. The two theories mainly differ with regard to prospects for capitalist development in the periphery, the cause of economic development in the industrialised countries, and the causes of persistent poverty in the underdeveloped countries. Marxists view modernisation as part of an inevitable and natural process of the development of capitalism which will ultimately lead to its collapse. Marx argued that there was no difference between the kind of capitalism developed in the colonies and that developed in Europe since "what the industrially more developed country shows the less developed one is merely an image of its future" (in Blomstrom and Hettne,1984:10). The Marxist view of social change is that as capital is concentrated into an ever diminishing number of owners, the misery and oppression of the working class grows, leading to revolt. The fall of the bourgeoisie and the victory of the proletariat are considered to be inevitable (in Heilbroner, 1986:148). Therefore, although "men make their own history....they do not just make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly found, given, and transmitted from the past" (in Heilbroner, 1986:145). 103 / 104 The second area of disagreement between Marxists and dependency theorists relates to the cause of development in the industrialised countries. While Marxists ascribe this to the exploitation of all the workers, dependency theorists ascribe growth in the industrialised countries primarily to the exploitation of workers in the underdeveloped countries. Marxists challenge this conclusion because they do not consider external causes of dependency to be the more important in the underdevelopment of the developing countries. Essentially, this disagreement on the causes of economic development in the industrialised world and simultaneous underdevelopment in the non-industrialised countries emanates from different conceptions of the effects of imperialism. Third, Marxists challenge the suggestion that underdevelopment is caused by the periphery's contact with the centre. They argue that underdevelopment can not be attributed to the intrusion of capitalism but rather to the insufficient penetration of capitalism. Marxists point out that a number of currently developed countries have been part of the periphery, but since their class structures were different the consequences of contact were also different (Blomstrom and Hettne, 1984:84). Laclau (1971) suggests that to blame underdevelopment on the penetration of capitalism, as Frank (1966) had done, was to misunderstand the entire problem. Since the precapitalist elements did not disintegrate complete^, he suggests that underdevelopment arises from insufficient capitalist penetration. Despite such differences, there is still a lot of common ground between Marxists and dependentistas. Like Dependency theorists, Marxists consider / 105 underdevelopment and poverty to be a consequence of processes which concentrate wealth and power within states and internationally. However, Marxists focus on internal class structure because to them, the concept of accumulation is crucial for understanding the development of capitalism in the advanced countries. Although the Dependency theorists accept that the elite in the developing countries contribute to the creation of dependency, they view the relationship between nations as having the greater significance. However, this is largely a matter of emphasis. Marxists are also concerned with imperialism while dependency theorists are clearly concerned with the relationships between internal class structure and external dependency. Both Cardoso and Dos Santos sum up this point well by arguing that it is not correct to separate internal and external factors since they are complementary. The theory of imperialism analyses the factors behind the internationalisation of capitalism: Dependency theory shows the effects on individual countries. 

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