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Baghdad's quest for strategic surprise : an analysis of the Iraq-Iran War 1989

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BAGHDAD'S QUEST FOR STRATEGIC SURPRISE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE IRAQ-IRAN WAR By MICHAEL JOHN MUIR B.A., C o n n e c t i c u t S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1985 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May 1989 ® M i c h a e l John Muir, 1989 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada DE-6 (2/88) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ABSTRACT BAGHDAD'S QUEST FOR STRATEGIC SURPRISE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE IRAQ-IRAN WAR by M i c h a e l John Muir The I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , along w i t h the r e g i o n a l d e s i gns pursued by the I r a q i governing e l i t e , combined t o determine the course of I r a q i - I r a n i a n r e l a t i o n s i n the p e r i o d from January of 1979 t o September of 1980 which, although a t the o u t s e t was marked by r e c i p r o c a l pronouncements of c o r d i a l i t y and benevolent i n t e n t i o n s , g r a d u a l l y d e t e r i o r a t e d i n t o a mutually acrimonious path t h a t gave r i s e t o what has become the b l o o d i e s t and l o n g e s t - r u n ning war between two T h i r d World s t a t e s . The d u a l , i n t e r c o n n e c t e d aims of t h i s t h e s i s are t o account f o r the d e c i s i o n o f the Baath regime o f I r a q t o attempt t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e I r a n — t h e r e b y r e a l i z i n g i t s war g o a l s i n a b r i e f and d e c i s i v e campaign—and, a d d i t i o n a l l y , t o o u t l i n e the f a c t o r s and c o n d i t i o n s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e d t o I r a n ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o a sudden i n v a s i o n . As a systemic theory, the t h e o r y d e a l i n g w i t h the f a c t o r s t h a t can engender a r u l i n g e l i t e ' s impetus f o r i i s e e k i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , as w e l l as the c o n d i t i o n s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e t o the e s t a b l i s h e d t a r g e t n a t i o n ' s exposure t o such an a c t i o n , belongs t o the grouping o f macro-theories t h a t address the f o r c e s which i n f l u e n c e i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . Common t o a l l systemic i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s t h e o r i e s i s the assumption t h a t the conduct o f one n a t i o n toward another i s , more o f t e n than not, shaped by a s s o r t e d , d i v e r s e v a r i a b l e s . And, s i n c e the course o f i n t e r s t a t e r e l a t i o n s v a r i e s on the b a s i s of a n e a r l y innumerable l i s t o f determinants, i t f o l l o w s t h a t d e c i s i o n s f o r w a r — t h e l e a s t p l e a s a n t , a l b e i t f a r from uncommon, mode o f i n t e r a c t i o n among n a t i o n s — a l s o emanate from numerous c a u s a l f a c t o r s . Proceeding from such reasoning, i t i s not e m p i r i c a l l y o r m e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y unsound t o p o s i t t h a t t y p i c a l l y no s i n g l e , o v e r r i d i n g determinant a c t u a t e s a d e c i s i o n t o wage an e f f o r t t o a t t a i n s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . The t e s t i n g o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s a major o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s p r e s e n t study. I t i s maintained t h a t the I r a q i decision-maker's c o n c l u s i o n t h a t war w i t h I r a n was necessary was shaped by a complex o f f a c t o r s . C h i e f among these, and one which i s t h e r e f o r e g i v e n a c e n t r a l p o s i t i o n i n the t h e s i s , i s t h a t which emphasizes the d e s t a b i l i z i n g e f f e c t s o f the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n a r y upheaval i n I r a n . More p r e c i s e l y , i t i s argued t h a t a d e f e n s i v e d e s i r e t o m a i n t a i n the p o l i t i c a l s t a t u s quo i n I r a q , which was grounded on a r i g i d i i i s e c u l a r i s m , p l a y e d a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n f o s t e r i n g p r e s s u r e f o r Baghdad t o r e s o r t t o t h e use o f an o v e r t m i l i t a r y c o n f r o n t a t i o n . In l i n e w i t h t h i s argument, two major b e l i e f s espoused by the I r a q i B a a t h i s t s w h i c h , by and l a r g e , a r e a t t r i b u t e s o f the n a t u r e o f the I r a q i p o l i t y , are c i t e d : F i r s t , t h a t the p o l i t i c a l dominance o f S u n n i M u s l i m s , who c o n s t i t u t e a m i n o r i t y o f the I r a q i p o p u l a c e — the m a j o r i t y o f which c o n s i s t s o f S h i a Musl ims—must be p r e s e r v e d a t a l l c o s t s ; s econd , t h a t a r e i n v i g o r a t i o n o f e t h n i c K u r d i s h a s p i r a t i o n s f o r i n c r e a s e d r e g i o n a l autonomy, due t o t h e extreme economic importance o f the r e g i o n o f I r a q t h e y i n h a b i t ( the o i l - r i c h n o r t h ) , must be f o r e s t a l l e d . I t i s demonstrated t h a t the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n p o r t e n d e d a h e i g h t e n i n g o f S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s m and K u r d i s h n a t i o n a l i s m w i t h i n I r a q . Beyond s t r i c t l y d e f e n s i v e inducements , i t i s m a i n t a i n e d t h a t Baghdad was a l s o m o t i v a t e d by s e v e r a l e n t e r p r i s i n g g o a l s . By and l a r g e , these a m b i t i o n s were p r e d i c a t e d upon the d e s i r e t o g a i n c o n t r o l o f l o n g - c o v e t e d , e c o n o m i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t p o r t i o n s o f I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y , and , o v e r a l l , were i n consonance w i t h t h e g r a n d s t r a t e g i c a l , i m p e r a t i v e o f e s t a b l i s h i n g I r a q i hegemony o v e r t h e G u l f r e g i o n . An a n a l y s i s o f the p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y u n d e r p i n n i n g the B a a t h i s t s 1 s e a r c h f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e c o n s t i t u t e s a n o t h e r major a s p e c t o f t h i s u n d e r t a k i n g . In i v s h o r t , i t i s h e r e i n argued t h a t Baghdad was moved by p e r c e i v e d economic and m i l i t a r y weakness hampering the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , as w e l l as by the h i g h degree o f p o l i t i c a l f r i c t i o n t h a t was spawned by t h e r e v o l u t i o n . The o v e r a l l a c c u r a c y o f t h e s e p e r c e p t i o n s i s gauged. An i n - d e p t h e x a m i n a t i o n o f the economic p o s t u r e o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , as w e l l as the s t a t e o f i t s de fense f o r c e s and the n a t u r e o f the p o l i t i c a l ambient h o l d i n g sway t h e r e , c o n s t i t u t e s a n o t h e r key t o p i c . T h i s d i s c u s s i o n i s conducted i n the c o n t e x t o f e x p l a i n i n g I r a n ' s i n a b i l i t y t o o b t a i n s t r a t e g i c warn ing o f I r a q ' s a g g r e s s i v e p l a n s , and , t o immedia t e l y b l u n t the i n r o a d once i t had been i n i t i a t e d . E f f o r t s a r e a l s o made t o p r e s e n t an overv iew o f the i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s o f I r a q and I r a n , how t h i s f a c t o r i n f l u e n c e d Baghdad's m o t i v a t i o n s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s and , e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t l y , T e h e r a n ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o a g g r e s s i o n from t h e west . v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT v i i i CHAPTER I . INTRODUCTION 1 D e f i n i t i o n and Purpose 1 Survey o f P e r t i n e n t L i t e r a t u r e 3 Methodology, Sources, and O r g a n i z a t i o n 6 An E x p l a n a t o r y Overview: The Substance and Dynamics o f S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e 9 The Importance of Studying S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e 31 CHAPTER I I . IRAQ'S INCENTIVES: DEFENSIVE, OFFENSIVE, AND IDEOLOGICAL-CULTURAL 37 D e f e n s i v e Inducements 37 A g g r e s s i v e M o t i v a t i o n s 4 8 I r a q ' s P r o p e n s i t y t o Resort t o Force A g a i n s t I r a n Due t o I d e o l o g i c a l and E t h n i c - C u l t u r a l D i s p a r i t y .. 57 C o n c l u s i o n 65 CHAPTER I I I . IRAQ'S INCENTIVES: HISTORICAL, ELITE CONSENSUS AND THE LEVEL OF ACCURACY OF MOTIVATIONAL PERCEPTIONS 72 P r e d i l e c t i o n A r i s i n g from H i s t o r i c a l Antagonism 73 Degree of I r a q i E l i t e U n i t y Regarding the E f f i c a c y of Attempting a S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e 87 Degree o f M i s p e r c e p t i o n i n the V a l u a t i o n s Comprising the I r a q i Regime's I n c e n t i v e S t r u c t u r e 92 C o n c l u s i o n 95 CHAPTER IV. IRAQ'S PERCEPTIONS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRATEGICALLY SURPRISING REVOLUTIONARY IRAN 100 P e r c e p t i o n s o f Opportunity Engendered by Q u a n t i t a t i v e and Q u a l i t a t i v e I n d i c e s o f M i l i t a r y Power 101 v i O p p o r t u n i t y P r e d i c a t e d upon O b s e r v a t i o n s o f I r a n i a n V u l n e r a b i l i t y Engendered by a R e d u c t i o n o f t h e S i z e o f the N a t i o n ' s Armed F o r c e s , Economic D i s l o c a t i o n , and I n t e r n a l P o l i t i c a l F r a g m e n t a t i o n 105 O p p o r t u n i t y F o s t e r e d by the M o n o c r a t i c Nature o f the I r a q i P o l i t i c a l System 118 The L e v e l o f I n a c c u r a c y U n d e r l y i n g the B a a t h i s t s * E s t i m a t i o n s o f O p p o r t u n i t y : F a i l u r e t o D i s c e r n P o t e n t i a l , Adverse Consequences I n h e r e n t i n S e e k i n g t o S t r a t e g i c a l l y S u r p r i s e R e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n 121 De te r minant s I n f l u e n c i n g t h e T i m i n g o f t h e U n d e r t a k i n g o f the S u r p r i s e Ons laught 132 C o n c l u s i o n 134 CHAPTER V . REVOLUTIONARY IRAN'S EXPOSURE TO STRATEGIC SURPRISE: MILITARY, INTELLIGENCE AND DOMESTIC POLITICAL CAUSAL FACTORS 140 V u l n e r a b i l i t y A r i s i n g from T r a n s i t i o n i n t h e C o m p o s i t i o n o f the M i l i t a r y , D i sadvantageous P o s i t i o n i n g o f F o r c e s , and a Breakdown o f S t r a t e g y and D e f e n s i v e P l a n n i n g 141 Exposure t o A g g r e s s i o n Due t o an Impaired I n t e l l i g e n c e C a p a b i l i t y and I r a q i S tratagem 149 V u l n e r a b i l i t y Evoked by Domest ic P o l i t i c a l Disagreement 153 C o n c l u s i o n 169 CHAPTER V I . REORIENTATION OF THE FOREIGN POLICY OF IRAN AND IRAQ: BREAKDOWN OF THE INTERSTATE STATUS QUO IN THE GULF REGION AND THE EFFECTS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT UPON IRAN'S VULNERABILITY TO AN IRAQI STRIKE 175 The C o n c e p t u a l Des igns U n d e r g i r d i n g the I r a n i a n I s l a m i c i s t s ' F o r e i g n P o l i c y : The P r o p a g a t i o n o f T r a d i t i o n a l i s t S h i ' i s m and the R o l l i n g Back o f I m p e r i a l I n f l u e n c e w i t h i n the M u s l i m W o r l d 176 Change i n I r a q i F o r e i g n P o l i c y : From R a d i c a l i s m t o M o d e r a t i o n 189 C o n c l u s i o n 204 CHAPTER V I I . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 2 09 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 219 v i i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T h i s t h e s i s r e f l e c t s t h e e x p e r i e n c e a n d k n o w l e d g e o f v a r i o u s p e o p l e , f o r no one c a n r e a l i s t i c a l l y a s p i r e t o w r i t e a work o f t h i s n a t u r e u n a s s i s t e d by o t h e r s . A c c o r d i n g l y , I w o u l d l i k e t o a c k n o w l e d g e t h e p e r s o n who i s i n many r e s p e c t s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s v o l u m e : M i c h a e l W a l l a c e . W i t h o u t t h e c r i t i c a l e v a l u a t i o n and a d v i c e , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e g a r d t o a p r o p e r f r a m e w o r k o f a n a l y s i s f o r t h i s t o p i c , p u t f o r t h by t h i s a c a d e m i c , t h i s work w o u l d be l e s s o r g a n i z e d a n d l e s s e x t e n s i v e . D o n a l d Munton a l s o c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h i s p r o j e c t b y d e v o t i n g some o f h i s v a l u a b l e t i m e t o p a r t i c i p a t e on t h e e x a m i n i n g c o m m i t t e e . I w o u l d a l s o l i k e t o t h a n k P a u l T e n n a n t f o r h i s a s s i s t a n c e i n s u r m o u n t i n g a number o f b u r e a u c r a t i c o b s t a c l e s . v i i i CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION D e f i n i t i o n and Purpose In t h e e a r l y morning hours o f 22 September 1980, s i x I r a q i army d i v i s i o n s l aunched a sudden, c o o r d i n a t e d i n c u r s i o n i n t o I r a n ; c o i n c i d i n g w i t h t h e ground inves tment were numerous s o r t i e s by I r a q i combat a i r c r a f t . The o u t b r e a k o f open w a r f a r e marked the c u l m i n a t i o n o f a n ine teen-month p e r i o d o f s p i r a l i n g t e n s i o n between Baghdad and T e h e r a n , which had commenced i n F e b r u a r y o f 1979 w i t h t h e onse t o f the f u n d a m e n t a l i s t , I s l a m i c - o r i e n t e d r e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n t h a t t o p p l e d the m o n a r c h i a l regime o f Shah Muhammad Reza P a h l a v i . The I r a q i i r r u p t i o n , the t h r u s t o f which was d i r e c t e d a t I r a n ' s p e t r o l e u m - r i c h , southwestern p r o v i n c e o f K h u z e s t a n — t h e f o u n d a t i o n o f the I r a n i a n economy— c o n s t i t u t e s a r e c e n t example o f an at tempt by a s t a t e t o r e a l i z e a s w i f t and d e c i s i v e m i l i t a r y v i c t o r y o v e r an a d v e r s a r y v i s - a - v i s s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . The s t u d y o f the phenomenon o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , which G e n e r a l C a r l Von C l a u s e w i t z once a l l u d e d t o as a " p e c u l i a r and i m p o r t a n t c h a p t e r i n the A r t o f W a r , " 1 has i n c r e a s e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s . G e n e r a l l y d e f i n e d , s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e e n t a i l s an a b r u p t and f o r c e f u l i n r o a d t h a t i s 1 2 conduc ted w i t h the paramount d e s i g n o f g r e a t l y d i m i n i s h i n g the c a p a b i l i t y o f the b e s i e g e d s t a t e t o muster a s e r i o u s c o u n t e r a t t a c k . ^ I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note t h a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e d i f f e r s c o n s i d e r a b l y from common t a c t i c a l s u r p r i s e ; t h e former exceeds the l a t t e r , which o c c u r s r e g u l a r l y d u r i n g war, i n terms o f magnitude and the p o t e n t i a l f o r d e s t r o y i n g the w a r f i g h t i n g c a p a c i t y o f t h e enemy. In a d d i t i o n , the u l t i m a t e ends i n h e r e n t i n s e e k i n g a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e a r e o f a p o l i t i c a l , r a t h e r t h a n a p u r e l y m i l i t a r y , n a t u r e . N o t a b l e i n s t a n c e s o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i n t h e p a s t i n c l u d e the Japanese a t t a c k on R u s s i a n w a r s h i p s a t P o r t A r t h u r , M a n c h u r i a i n 1905; the German i n v a s i o n o f the S o v i e t U n i o n i n 1941, which was codenamed O p e r a t i o n B a r b a r o s s a ; the Japanese a i r a t t a c k on t h e U . S . P a c i f i c f l e e t a t P e a r l H a r b o r , H a w a i i i n 1941; the mass ive C h i n e s e a t t a c k a g a i n s t t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n ' s e x p e d i t i o n a r y f o r c e d u r i n g the Korean c o n f l i c t ; and more r e c e n t l y , the j o i n t E g y p t i a n - S y r i a n o n s l a u g h t a g a i n s t I s r a e l i n 1973. No m e t h o d i c a l a n a l y s i s o f the I r a q i b i d f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e has y e t been under taken by p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s . T h i s t h e s i s endeavors t o p a r t i a l l y f i l l t h i s v o i d by examin ing Baghdad's d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g f o r a g g r e s s i o n and , more p r e c i s e l y , t h e nexus between the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n and I r a q i f o r e i g n p o l i c y . T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l c i t e t h e works w i t h i n t h e b o d i e s o f l i t e r a t u r e on s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e and s t r a t e g i c d e c e p t i o n , the I r a q - I r a n War, the 3 I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , and I r a q ' s p o l i t i c a l sys tem, which a r e p e r t i n e n t h e r e . A rev i ew o f the methodology used i n t h i s t r e a t i s e , i n c l u d i n g the c o n c e p t u a l framework t h r o u g h which t h e o u t b r e a k o f t h e I r a q - I r a n War i s t o be a n a l y z e d , w i l l a l s o be u n d e r t a k e n . In a d d i t i o n , the n a t u r e o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e w i l l be p l a c e d i n t o a c l e a r e r p e r s p e c t i v e by a c i t i n g o f the main c a u s a l f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e i t s o c c u r r e n c e . F i n a l l y , a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f the o v e r a l l impor tance o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e f o r b i l a t e r a l r e l a t i o n s among n a t i o n s and , more i m p o r t a n t l y , g l o b a l s e c u r i t y , w i l l be put f o r t h . Survey o f P e r t i n e n t L i t e r a t u r e R e g a r d i n g works on s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , o f foremost importance i s K l a u s s K n o r r and P a t r i c k Morgan ' s S t r a t e g i c M i l i t a r y S u r p r i s e : I n c e n t i v e s and O p p o r t u n i t i e s , 3 which c o n t a i n s an e x c e l l e n t , f u l l a c c o u n t i n g o f t h e f a c t o r s and p a t h o l o g i e s t h a t converge t o e f f e c t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . T h i s t r e a t i s e was o f utmost u t i l i t y f o r the p r e s e n t s tudy i n terms o f a f f o r d i n g a s t r u c t u r a l and t h e o r e t i c a l avenue t o f o l l o w i n a n a l y z i n g t h e I r a q i i n v a s i o n o f I r a n . A t r a c t o f comparable worth f o r g r a s p i n g the fundamental n a t u r e o f s t r a t e g i c shock i s R i c h a r d K. B e t t s ' S u r p r i s e A t t a c k : Les sons f o r Defence P l a n n i n g . 4 A number o f a n a l y s e s f o c u s i n g p r i m a r i l y on s t r a t e g i c d e c e p t i o n , a b a s i c r o o t cause o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , were a l s o used f o r t h i s t h e s i s . C h i e f among these a r e the f o l l o w i n g : Donald C . 4 D a n i e l and K a t h e r i n e L . H e r b i g ' s S t r a t e g i c M i l i t a r y D e c e p t i o n . 5 which c o n t a i n s s e v e r a l e s says t h a t e s t a b l i s h v a r i o u s a n a l y t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n s f o r the s t u d y o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s , m a i n l y on the p a r t o f the v i c t i m , which engender a f a i l u r e t o o b t a i n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g ; B a r t o n W h a l e y ' s S t r a t a g e m : D e c e p t i o n and S u r p r i s e i n War , , 6 which e n t a i l s a vo luminous e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o c e s s e s and e x i g e n c i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d e c e p t i o n ; and John Gooch and Amos P e r l m u t t e r • s M i l i t a r y D e c e p t i o n and S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e , 7 which i s o f use l a r g e l y due t o the b r i e f t r e a t m e n t s o f p a s t examples o f d e c e p t i o n . To d a t e , the amount o f i n - d e p t h a n a l y t i c a l t r e a t m e n t o f the I r a q - I r a n War t h a t has been put f o r t h , e s p e c i a l l y on t h e f a c t o r s t h a t i n f l u e n c e d i t s o n s e t , has been q u i t e l i m i t e d . A s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e s c h o l a r l y u n d e r t a k i n g s on the o r i g i n s o f the war have come from a s m a l l number o f a n a l y s t s , w i t h most o f the work c a r r i e d i n v a r i o u s j o u r n a l s as b r i e f a r t i c l e s . However, a number o f e x c e l l e n t b o o k - l e n g t h examinat ions have been p u b l i s h e d . I n c l u d e d among these a r e A l i H i l l a l D e s s o u k i ' s The I r a n - I r a q War: I s s u e s o f C o n f l i c t and P r o s p e c t s f o r S e t t l e m e n t . 8 which encompasses a number o f a n a l y s e s based on d i f f e r i n g o r i e n t a t i o n s ; N i c o l a F i r z l i ' s The I r a n - I r a q C o n f l i c t . 9 which examines the war from a European p e r s p e c t i v e ; and , f i n a l l y , S tephen R. Grummon's The I r a n - I r a q War: I s lam E m b a t t l e d , 1 0 which f o c u s e s on the war from an I s l a m i c s t a n d p o i n t . 5 H a v i n g c i t e d t h e works on war c a u s a t i o n i n g e n e r a l , on s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e and d e c e p t i o n s p e c i f i c a l l y , and on the war between I r a q and I r a n , t h e d i s c u s s i o n w i l l now t u r n t o t h e major a n a l y s e s on the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n and t h e n a t u r e o f t h e I r a q i body p o l i t i c . A number o f t r a c t s on the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n were o f c o n s i d e r a b l e u t i l i t y i n p r o v i d i n g an i n s i g h t i n t o the p o l i t i c a l and s o c i e t a l u p h e a v a l t h a t c o n s t i t u t e d t h e main c a t a l y s t t o the mounting d i s s e n s i o n between I r a n and I r a q . S h a u l Bakhash ' s The R e i g n o f the A y a t o l l a h s : I r a n and t h e I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n , 1 1 d e a l s w i t h the f i r s t f o u r y e a r s o f the r e v o l u t i o n , and i s u s e f u l as an i n - d e p t h s o u r c e o f background i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e and the v a r i o u s o p p o s i t i o n groups t h a t v i e d w i t h the K h o m e i n i s t s f o r power i n p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . A work o f w i d e r scope and an e x c e l l e n t overv iew o f the r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n upon the P e r s i a n G u l f r e g i o n i s R o u h o l l a h K. Ramazani ' s R e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n : C h a l l e n g e and Response i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t . 1 2 S e v e r a l works r e g a r d i n g the p o l i t i c a l atmosphere i n contemporary I r a q have been w r i t t e n r e c e n t l y . As f a r as t h i s t h e s i s i s c o n c e r n e d , one t r e a t i s e o f t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n has been p a r t i c u l a r l y b e n e f i c i a l : Timothy N i b l o c k ' s In I r a q : The Contemporary S t a t e . 1 3 which compr i se s s e v e r a l e s says on v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f I r a q i p o l i t i c a l a f f a i r s . Of f u r t h e r u t i l i t y i s Phebe M a r r ' s The Modern H i s t o r y o f I r a q , 1 4 and Faud M a t a r ' s Saddam H u s s e i n : The Man, the Cause f 6 and t h e F u t u r e . 1 5 The former conveys a c o g n i z a n c e o f the key i n f l u e n c e s s h a p i n g modern I r a q i s o c i e t y , w h i l e the l a t t e r i l l u m i n a t e s t h e p e r s o n a l governance o f I r a q ' s p o l i t i c a l s trongman. Methodology , S o u r c e s , and O r g a n i z a t i o n C o n t a i n e d w i t h i n t h e v a s t body o f l i t e r a t u r e on the c a u s a t i o n o f war a r e a p l e t h o r a o f t h e o r i e s which encompass a wide a r r a y o f v a r i a n t o r i e n t a t i o n s . J o e l S i n g e r has e s t a b l i s h e d a number o f s t a n d a r d s w h i c h , i n h i s o p i n i o n , s h o u l d be adhered t o i n f o r m u l a t i n g a sound, c o n c e p t u a l framework f o r a n a l y z i n g the o u t b r e a k o f war. To S i n g e r , due t o t h e u n c e r t a i n and s p o r a d i c n a t u r e o f war as i t t r a n s p i r e s i n d i f f e r e n t p e r i o d s o f t ime and i n d i s p a r a t e g e o g r a p h i c a l r e g i o n s , t h e o r i e s t h a t r e s t on a s i n g l e o r even a few o v e r r i d i n g c a u s a l f a c t o r s cannot p r o v i d e a thorough e x p l a n a t i o n o f i t s o c c u r r e n c e i n g e n e r a l . 1 6 O v e r a l l , S i n g e r champions t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f a comprehens ive , m u l t i - t h e o r e t i c a l approach t o c o n f l i c t a n a l y s i s , r a t h e r than a n a r r o w l y f o c u s e d , m o n i s t i c , o r d y a d i c a n a l y t i c a l b e a r i n g . In l i g h t o f the c o m p l e x i t y o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , which w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d f u r t h e r on i n t h i s c h a p t e r , an adherence t o the g u i d e l i n e s put f o r t h by S i n g e r would seem mandatory f o r a n a l y z i n g a p a r t i c u l a r i n s t a n c e o f t h i s phenomenon. K l a u s s K n o r r and P a t r i c k Morgan, two l e a d i n g a u t h o r i t i e s on s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , share S i n g e r ' s s ent iment r e g a r d i n g the u t i l i t y o f m u l t i - c a u s a l e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r the 7 o c c u r r e n c e o f war, and have demonstrated t h i s c o n c u r r e n c e by d e v i s i n g a v i a b l e framework f o r c o n d u c t i n g case a n a l y s e s o f s t r a t e g i c s h o c k s . O v e r a l l , by employ ing K n o r r and Morgan ' s p a r a d i g m , a m a c r o s c o p i c and c l e a r e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e m u l t i t u d e o f f a c t o r s u n d e r p i n n i n g the I r a q i e l i t e ' s d e c i s i o n t o mount a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , as w e l l as the I r a n i a n e l i t e ' s f a i l u r e t o d i s c e r n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g , can be p r e s e n t e d . In terms o f r e s e a r c h d a t a , I have u t i l i z e d b o t h p r i m a r y and secondary s o u r c e s . The p r i m a r y a s s e t s f o r t h i s t h e s i s have been newspapers and a l i m i t e d amount o f government p u b l i c a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g I r a n i a n , I r a q i , I n d i a n , and A m e r i c a n . T h i s s c h o l a r has made e x t e n s i v e use o f The I r a n T imes , the I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s ' News Review on West A s i a ( I n d i a ) , The New York T imes , and The C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r . And , r e g a r d i n g government p a p e r s , the M i d d l e E a s t A s i a R e p o r t o f the U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e has proven q u i t e h e l p f u l . Due t o the f a c t t h a t the I r a q - I r a n War has not y e t f o r m a l l y come t o a c l o s e , and because t h e e n v i s i o n e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r i b u n a l t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e o r i g i n s o f the c o n f l i c t i s y e t t o convene, a c c e s s t o o f f i c i a l government documents o f e i t h e r b e l l i g e r e n t i s n o n e x i s t e n t , and i t i s q u i t e l i k e l y t h a t many y e a r s w i l l pas s b e f o r e r e s e a r c h e r s a r e g r a n t e d a c c e s s t o t h e s e v a l u a b l e s o u r c e s . At tempts t o e s t a b l i s h c o n t a c t s w i t h key I r a q i and I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s have so f a r p r o v e n 8 u n f r u i t f u l . An i n t e r v i e w w i t h A l b o l h a s a n B a n i - S a d r , the former I r a n i a n head o f government, would have been e s p e c i a l l y h e l p f u l b u t , due t o t ime and f i n a n c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s , such an u n d e r t a k i n g i s not f e a s i b l e f o r t h i s s t u d y . By and l a r g e , the amount o f p r i m a r y i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t I have been a b l e t o o b t a i n has been somewhat l i m i t e d . A n d , c o n s e q u e n t l y , I have been r e l e g a t e d t o r e l y more h e a v i l y on secondary r e s o u r c e s . However, I b e l i e v e t h a t I have imbued the t r e a t i s e w i t h a c o p i o u s l e v e l o f f a c t s g l e a n e d from t h e o r i g i n a l s o u r c e s I have o b t a i n e d , thus d i m i n i s h i n g t h e l e v e l o f i n d e t e r m i n a t i o n engendered by an o v e r r e l i a n c e on secondary s o u r c e s , and , by d o i n g s o , I have b o l s t e r e d t h e a c c u r a c y o f my f i n d i n g s . The o r g a n i z a t i o n o f the c h a p t e r s t h a t ensue r e f l e c t s t h e s t r u c t u r e o f K n o r r and Morgan' s c o n c e p t u a l framework. The t h e s i s i s d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r main s e c t i o n s . C h a p t e r s Two and Three d e s c r i b e I r a q ' s i n c e n t i v e s f o r a t t a c k i n g I r a n . C h a p t e r F o u r e n t a i l s an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r r e a l i z i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e t h a t were e n t e r t a i n e d by the I r a q i e l i t e . C h a p t e r F i v e c o n c e n t r a t e s on t h e v a r i o u s f a c t o r s which r e n d e r e d I r a n v u l n e r a b l e t o s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . C h a p t e r S i x d e a l s w i t h the i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s — m a i n l y the number and s t r e n g t h o f a l l i e s — o f I r a n and I r a q , r e s p e c t i v e l y . The f i n a l c h a p t e r t h e n p u t s f o r t h an o v e r a l l summation o f the t h e s i s . 9 An E x p l a n a t o r y Overview: The Substance and Dynamics o f S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e H a v i n g p u t f o r t h a c u r s o r y d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e phenomenon o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , e s t a b l i s h e d t h e o v e r a l l p u r pose o f t h i s t h e s i s , b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d t h e main l i t e r a r y works c o n s u l t e d , and o u t l i n e d t h e methodology, t y p e s o f s o u r c e s employed, and o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e e s s a y , I b e l i e v e t h a t , f o r p u r p o s e s o f c l a r i t y and e s t a b l i s h i n g a j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r d e s i g n a t i n g t h e I r a q i a t t a c k as a b i d f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , a more b r o a d and t h o r o u g h e x p l i c a t o r y t r e a t m e n t o f t h e n a t u r e o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , and t h o s e f a c t o r s t h a t i n f l u e n c e i t s i n c i d e n c e , i s i n o r d e r . F o r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s , t h i s n a r r a t i v e w i l l p r o c e e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e framework e s t a b l i s h e d by K n o r r and Morgan. An u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p r i n c i p a l m o t i v a t i o n s , whether t h e y a r e o f a d e f e n s i v e o r a g g r e s s i v e n a t u r e , o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e two, w h i c h c o m p r i s e t h e impetus f o r a s t a t e ' s e l i t e t o u n d e r t a k e an e f f o r t t o a t t a i n a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , i s o f f o r e m o s t i m p o r t a n c e . 1 7 I n terms o f t h e f o r m e r , i t i s n o t uncommon f o r a n a t i o n ' s r u l e r s t o be a c t u a t e d by a c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g s t a t e o f r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e o p p o s i n g n a t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s a d e t r i m e n t t o n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y , and, a c c o r d i n g l y , i s s i m p l y u n a c c e p t a b l e . 1 8 I n such c a s e s , t h e i n c e n t i v e f o r engaging i n armed c o n f l i c t stems l a r g e l y from t h e b e l l i c o s e demeanor o f t h e a d v e r s a r y , and from a r e s u l t a n t b e l i e f t h a t t h e c o s t o f r e f r a i n i n g from u n d e r t a k i n g d i r e c t a c t i o n w i l l g r e a t l y exceed t h e p o t e n t i a l c o s t o f i n i t i a t i n g h o s t i l i t i e s . D i s t i n c t from d e f e n s i v e inducements a r e a g g r e s s i v e a c t u a t i o n s f o r s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . The l a t t e r can a r i s e from a number o f e l i t e a s p i r a t i o n s and g o a l s : t e r r i t o r i a l aggrandizement ; t h e s e c u r i n g o f v a l u a b l e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ; and a t t a i n i n g a p o s i t i o n o f hegemony. I t w i l l be demonstrated t h a t the I r a q i regime was animated by a s t r o n g c o m b i n a t i o n o f d e f e n s i v e and a g g r e s s i v e m o t i v a t i o n s . The l e v e l o f e l i t e consensus r e g a r d i n g the n e c e s s i t y o f r e s o r t i n g t o f o r c e c o n s t i t u t e s a n o t h e r major f a c t o r t h a t must be examined i n a r r i v i n g a t a sweeping g r a s p o f the depth o f t h e a g g r e s s o r ' s i n d u c e m e n t s . 1 9 The c r u c i a l p r o c e s s o f making d e c i s i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o the p l a n n e d a g g r e s s i o n i s r e n d e r e d l e s s arduous by a h i g h degree o f u n i t y among r a n k i n g governmenta l a c t o r s , and a s h a r e d c o n c l u s i o n t h a t such d r a s t i c a c t i o n i s r e q u i s i t e . I n s o f a r as t h i s s t u d y i s c o n c e r n e d , i t w i l l be argued t h a t Baghdad's a r r i v a l a t a d e c i s i o n t o c o n f r o n t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n was f a c i l i t a t e d by a h i g h degree o f coherence among the Baath e l i t e . E x i s t i n g e l i t e i n c l i n a t i o n s can s e r v e t o r e i n f o r c e p r o t e c t i v e and venturesome i n s p i r a t i o n s . Such a p r o p e n s i t y can stem from what J o e l S i n g e r has termed " h i s t o r i c a l m e m o r y . " 2 0 In s h o r t , l o n g - s t a n d i n g i n t e r s t a t e r i v a l r y can foment s t r o n g f e e l i n g s o f a n i m o s i t y w i t h i n g o v e r n i n g c i r c l e s w h i c h , i n t u r n , can i n c r e a s e p r e d i l e c t i o n f o r a g g r e s s i o n . Of g r e a t e r i m p o r t , i n terms o f e x p l a i n i n g a w i l l i n g n e s s t o r e s o r t t o f o r c e , i s the e x t e n t o f d i s s i m i l a r i t y i n the p o l i t i c a l , e t h n i c , and c u l t u r a l v a l u e s espoused by t h e government o f the a g g r e s s o r and those championed by the t a r g e t s t a t e . Proponents o f the s t r u c t u r a l - f u n c t i o n a l s c h o o l o f thought p o s i t t h a t p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s ' paramount o b j e c t i v e i s t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n o f c o n c u r r e n c e and r e l a t i v e t r a n q u i l i t y w i t h i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p o l i t i e s , 2 1 and , a c c o r d i n g l y , d e s i g n a t e any d i s r u p t i o n o f t h e s e p r e f e r r e d c o n d i t i o n s as c o n s t i t u t i n g a casus b e l l i . More p r e c i s e l y , when an e l i t e p e r c e i v e s an i n t e r n a l t h r e a t t o i t s governance , e s p e c i a l l y those engendered from a b r o a d , a not a t y p i c a l re sponse i s t o d i r e c t the a t t e n t i o n o f the p o p u l a c e - a t - l a r g e outward by v i l i f y i n g t h e e x t e r n a l s o u r c e o f u n r e s t as a menace, and t o engage the i n d u s t r y o f the n a t i o n i n a m i l i t a r y c o n f l i c t . 2 2 And , i t s h o u l d be noted t h a t among t h e v a r i o u s c a u s a l f a c t o r s t h a t can g i v e r i s e t o such deve lopments , r e v o l u t i o n s s t a n d supreme. O v e r a l l , i t w i l l be argued t h a t the I r a q i i n r o a d was, i n p a r t i a l t e rms , a r e a c t i o n t o o v e r t I r a n i a n d i s p a r a g i n g o f v a l u e s h e l d dear by t h e B a a t h i s t s ; the h o s t i l e p o s i t i o n toward Baghdad adhered t o by the f u n d a m e n t a l i s t c l e r i c a l regime s e r v e d t o e x a c e r b a t e the s t a n d i n g l e v e l o f I r a q i - I r a n i a n t e n s i o n t h a t had been f o s t e r e d by the l e n g t h y h i s t o r y o f i n t e r s t a t e s t r i f e . 12 An a d d i t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n , germane t o an a n a l y s i s o f an a t t a c k i n g s t a t e ' s m o t i v a t i o n s , i s the degree o f p r e c i s i o n i n h e r e n t i n i t s v a l u a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e n e c e s s i t y o f a t t e m p t i n g a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . In o t h e r words , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o de termine whether the a g g r e s s o r was a c t i n g on the b a s i s o f c a r e f u l l y weighed a p p r a i s a l s , o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y , m i s e s t i m a t i o n s . By and l a r g e , i t w i l l be p o s t u l a t e d t h a t Baghdad o v e r e s t i m a t e d the p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e I r a n i a n c l e r i c s t o foment d i s s i d e n c e w i t h i n I r a q . In f u r t h e r a t t r i b u t i n g c a u s a l i t y , beyond m o t i v a t i o n a l f a c t o r s , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o examine t h e depth o f the p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y h e l d by the l e a d e r s h i p o f the a t t a c k i n g s t a t e . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note t h a t an a t tempt by a n a t i o n t o r e a l i z e s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i s r a r e l y conduc ted i n a c a p r i c i o u s o r spontaneous manner. T y p i c a l l y , a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f thought i s g i v e n t o t h e o v e r a l l worth o f u t i l i z i n g a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k as a means o f a t t a i n i n g p o l i t i c a l and economic d e s i g n s . An o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e i s g e n e r a l l y p r e d i c a t e d upon two m a i n , r e l a t e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n s : e s t i m a t i o n s by the i n c i t i n g s t a t e ' s e l i t e o f the m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y a t i t s d i s p o s a l and the c a p a c i t y t o p l a n t h e a t t a c k i n a h i g h l y s e c r e t i v e manner, t h e r e b y k e e p i n g the a d v e r s a r y unaware o f a g g r e s s i v e i n t e n t i o n s ; and , an observance o f t h e s a l i e n t d e f i c i e n c i e s t h a t r e n d e r t h e t a r g e t v u l n e r a b l e t o a t t a c k . 2 3 13 I t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t a s t a t e e n v i s i o n i n g the mount ing o f a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k posse s s an advanced c a p a b i l i t y i n v a r i o u s m i l i t a r y a t t r i b u t e s , i n c l u d i n g communicat ions and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , as w e l l as l e a d e r s h i p and t a c t i c s , which have been a l t e r n a t i v e l y dubbed as " r e s o u r c e s o f s u r p r i s e " 2 4 by R o b e r t A x e l r o d , a n o t h e r l e a d i n g a n a l y s t o f s t r a t e g i c s h o c k . Q u i t e o f t e n , a n a t i o n ' s e s t i m a t e o f t h e degree o f e x i s t i n g o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a t t a i n i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i s grounded on a b e l i e f t h a t i t s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , i n many r e s p e c t s , a r e s u p e r i o r t o those o f t h e a d v e r s a r y . Q u a l i t a t i v e and q u a n t i t a t i v e i n d i c e s a r e o f approx imate r e l e v a n c e i n a r r i v i n g a t an a p p r a i s a l o f the l i k e l i h o o d o f e x e c u t i n g a f r u i t f u l i n r o a d . Of the former , combat e x p e r i e n c e , m o b i l i t y , and m i l i t a r y l e a d e r s h i p a r e c r u c i a l . W i t h r e s p e c t t o the l a t t e r , most n o t a b l e a r e t h e number o f army d i v i s i o n s , a l o n g w i t h the e x t e n t o f a r t i l l e r y and tank s u p p o r t . The a d r o i t n e s s o f command has been s i n g l e d out as a p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t p r o p e r t y . In h i s renowned t r e a t i s e "On W a r , " C l a u s e w i t z a s s e r t e d t h a t p o l i t i c and d e c i s i v e command o f m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , which F r e d e r i c k the G r e a t and Napoleon Bonaparte e p i t o m i z e d , c o n s t i t u t e d a paramount p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r the achievement o f s u r p r i s e . More r e c e n t l y , i n h e r e n t i n G e n e r a l Nguyen G i a p ' s s u c c e s s f u l inves tment o f the F r e n c h g a r r i s o n a t D ienb ienphu was a demons trab le c o n n e c t i o n between t h e d i r e c t i o n o f the supreme commander o v e r p l a n n i n g and e x e c u t i o n and the outcome o f the 14 e f f o r t . 2 5 I t w i l l be p o s i t e d t h a t the I r a q i regime was c o n f i d e n t t h a t t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e I r a q i m i l i t a r y f o r c e s was s u f f i c i e n t t o o v e r r u n I r a n ' s d e f e n s e s . Of comparable importance t o h a v i n g an adequate m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y i s t h e a b i l i t y t o conduct p l a n n i n g f o r t h e s t r i k e i n a h i g h l y s e c r e t i v e manner, which n e c e s s i t a t e s r e s t r i c t i n g p r i o r knowledge o f a g g r e s s i v e ends t o a s m a l l and c o h e s i v e u n i t o f d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s . E q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t i s a c a r e f u l employment o f d e c e p t i o n , a p r a c t i c e r e f e r r e d t o as "stratagem" by C l a u s e w i t z , w h i c h , b a s i c a l l y , aims a t p r e v e n t i n g t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f t h e oppos ing s t a t e from d i s c e r n i n g a c t u a l o b j e c t i v e s . 2 6 The degree t o which p l a n n i n g f o r a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k can be conducted i n s e c r e c y i s c o n t i n g e n t upon t h e manner o f governance t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r s t a t e i s under the sway o f . The p r e s e r v a t i o n o f s e c r e c y i s l e s s arduous w i t h i n n a t i o n s r u l e d by an a u t h o r i t a r i a n reg ime , and t h i s can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the g e n e r a l absence o f p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n by the p o p u l a c e - a t - l a r g e and a r e s u l t i n g l a c k o f p u b l i c c o g n i z a n c e o f t h e g o a l s and a c t i o n s o f the e l i t e . 2 7 A l t h o u g h s e c r e c y and d e c e p t i o n a r e b o t h i m p o r t a n t f o r the r e a l i z a t i o n o f s u r p r i s e , i t i s the l a t t e r t h a t i s most c r u c i a l . I t w i l l be argued t h a t the c a b a l i s t i c Baath e l i t e ' s r i g i d c o n t r o l over I r a q ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s e n a b l e d p l a n n i n g and p r e p a r a t i o n f o r the i n r o a d t o be conducted i n a c l a n d e s t i n e manner. D e c e p t i o n has not a lways been a s c r i b e d t h e importance t h a t i t p r e s e n t l y c o n n o t e s . To C l a u s e w i t z , w h i l e the use o f d e c e p t i o n , which i n c l u d e d such " t r i c k s o f a g i l i t y " 2 8 as the p o s i t i o n i n g o f f o r c e s i n a r e a s away from the i n t e n d e d avenue o f o n s l a u g h t , p r e s e n t e d the p o t e n t i a l f o r d e l u d i n g t h e enemy, t h e p r a c t i c e c o n c o m i t a n t l y d i m i n i s h e d the l e v e l o f f o r c e a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e a c t u a l o f f e n s i v e , t h e r e b y r a i s i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a f a i l u r e t o overwhelm the t a r g e t ' s d e f e n s e s . In a d d i t i o n , C l a u s e w i t z equated s t r a t a g e m w i t h g a m b l i n g , a s t r a t e g i c a l p l o y t o be p u t t o use m a i n l y by one i n command o f f o r c e s demonstrab ly i n f e r i o r t o t h o s e o f t h e o p p o n e n t . 2 9 Moreover , because o f the u n a c c e p t a b l y h i g h r i s k o f d e b a c l e , C l a u s e w i t z advocated t h a t such a s u b t e r f u g e be r e s o r t e d t o o n l y when o t h e r l e s s hazardous c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n were u n a v a i l i n g . O v e r a l l , due t o a c o g n i z a n c e o f the p o t e n t i a l p i t f a l l s i n h e r e n t i n r e l y i n g on d e c e p t i o n , C l a u s e w i t z was not a s t r o n g proponent o f t h i s r u s e . The l i m i t e d u t i l i t y o f s t ra tagem d u r i n g e i g h t e e n t h and n i n e t e e n t h - c e n t u r y Europe (the epoch t h a t C l a u s e w i t z ' s w r i t i n g s f o c u s e d upon) , which was l a r g e l y an i n e s c a p a b l e r e s u l t o f t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f c o n c e a l i n g the movements o f l a r g e c o n t i n g e n t s o f i n f a n t r y and c a v a l r y , ended w i t h the advent o f t h e Second Wor ld War, which e f f e c t e d a r a p i d h e i g h t e n i n g o f the f u n c t i o n , as w e l l as the f r e q u e n c y o f u se , o f t h i s p r e t e x t o f w a r f a r e . 3 0 T h i s r a t h e r sudden 16 development can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s i n the eng ines o f d e s t r u c t i o n so v i t a l f o r the r a p i d i t y o f o n s l a u g h t needed t o a c h i e v e s u r p r i s e : the warp lane and the t a n k . The numerous b l i t z k r i e g s o r c h e s t r a t e d by H i t l e r , which e n t a i l e d a d e v a s t a t i n g l y e f f e c t i v e c o o r d i n a t i o n o f German ground and a i r f o r c e s , p a i n f u l l y s t i r r e d awareness o f t h i s a c t u a l i t y w i t h i n v a r i o u s European c a p i t a l s . C o i n c i d i n g w i t h an i n c r e a s e i n the u s e f u l n e s s o f d e c e p t i o n has been the c o n t r i v a n c e o f n o v e l and i n c r e a s i n g l y complex methods o f d e c e i v i n g a d v e r s a r i e s . In terms o f the a c t u a l methods o f d e c e p t i o n , B a r t o n Whaley, a t o p s c h o l a r o f t h i s a c c e s s o r y phenomenon o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , has i d e n t i f i e d two p r i n c i p a l o p t i o n s : an i n t e n t i o n a l augmentat ion o f the l e v e l o f u n c e r t a i n t y p r e v a i l i n g among the e l i t e o f t h e t a r g e t s t a t e ; and , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , a drawing o f t h e a t t e n t i o n o f t h e a d v e r s a r y toward a s i n g l e and o v e r r i d i n g , a l b e i t f a l s e , t h r e a t . 3 1 These two o p t i o n s have been a l t e r n a t i v e l y dubbed by Donald D a n i e l and K a t h e r i n e H e r b i g , two o t h e r l e a d i n g e x p e r t s on d e c e p t i o n , as " A - t y p e " ( " a m b i g u i t y " - h e i g h t e n i n g ) , and "M-type" ("mis leading") d e c e p t i o n s . 3 2 A key argument o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t h a t Baghdad made use o f b o t h a forement ioned v a r i a n t s o f d e c e p t i o n . In u t i l i z i n g the former method, as a means o f c o n f u s i n g a nemesis and c o n c e a l i n g major o b j e c t i v e s , a p r o t a g o n i s t ' s l e a d e r s h i p w i l l o f t e n e s t a b l i s h a wide range 17 o f d i v e r s e o b j e c t i v e s , a p r a c t i c e r e f e r r e d t o by Whaley as the r u s e o f " a l t e r n a t i v e g o a l s . " 3 3 A r e l i a n c e upon t h i s method, when u n d e r t a k e n i n a c a r e f u l and w e l l - p l a n n e d manner, and i n c o n c e r t w i t h the p r o p a g a t i o n o f "noise" ( i r r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n ) , can y i e l d s i g n i f i c a n t b e n e f i t s t o t h e b e s i e g e r . A n o t a b l e example o f an a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t y p e o f s t r a t a g e m was " P l a n B o d y g u a r d , " which was used by the A l l i e d F o r c e s i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r the c r o s s - c h a n n e l inves tment o f n o r t h e r n F r a n c e , the p r i n c i p a l aim o f which was t o i n c r e a s e the number o f p o s s i b l e l o c a t i o n s f o r the a s s a u l t on t h e c o n t i n e n t , t h e r e b y i n c r e a s i n g B e r l i n ' s u n c e r t a i n t y and s e r v i n g t o m a i n t a i n the deployment o f l a r g e c o n t i n g e n t s o f German f o r c e s f a r - a f i e l d from the Normandy c o a s t . 3 4 Beyond t h e use o f d e c e p t i o n t o i n c r e a s e e q u i v o c a t i o n on the p a r t o f the v i c t i m s t a t e , t h e r e have been i n s t a n c e s i n t h e p a s t where the a g g r e s s o r has endeavored t o d i m i n i s h the t r a n s m i s s i o n o f nebulous i n f o r m a t i o n , and , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , t o r i v e t t h e focus o f the government o f t h e opponent upon d i s c e r n i b l e , a l t h o u g h b a s e l e s s , s i g n a l s . 3 5 T h i s t r a c k makes heavy use o f d i s i n f o r m a t i o n . A c e l e b r a t e d example o f t h i s a r t i f i c e was t h e e f f o r t u n d e r t a k e n by Germany's i n t e l l i g e n c e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , p r i o r t o the l a u n c h i n g o f " O p e r a t i o n B a r b a r o s s a " (the i n v a s i o n o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ) , which succeeded i n f a l s e l y c o n v i n c i n g J o s e f S t a l i n t h a t an o v e r t u l t i m a t u m would be put forward by B e r l i n p r i o r t o t h e a c t u a l u n d e r t a k i n g o f any m i l i t a r y a c t i o n s a g a i n s t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . 3 6 O v e r a l l , t h r o u g h a u t i l i z a t i o n o f e i t h e r method, o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f the two, an a t t a c k i n g s t a t e can s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f s e c u r i n g s t r a t e g i c shock . I n a d d i t i o n t o c i t i n g t h e main forms o f d e c e p t i o n , i t i s o f e q u a l importance t o d e f i n e t h e more b a s i c f e a t u r e s o f t h i s a c t w h i c h , beyond t h e a l r e a d y ment ioned p r a c t i c e o f s e c r e c y , i n c l u d e "camouf lage ," n o i s e , and d i s i n f o r m a t i o n . Camouflage i s r e l a t e d t o s e c r e c y , and t h e two r u s e s a r e r e f e r r e d t o w i t h i n the l e x i c o n o f m i l i t a r y j a r g o n as " c o v e r . " 3 7 B a r t o n Whaley has i d e n t i f i e d two p r i n c i p a l v a r i a t i o n s o f c o v e r : 1) " n e g a t i v e , " which i n v o l v e s the concea lment o f t r o o p s and equipment; and 2) " p o s i t i v e , " which c o n s i s t s o f e s t a b l i s h i n g c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f "dummy" f o r c e s and m a t e r i a l . 3 8 An e x c l u s i v e r e l i a n c e upon c o v e r would y i e l d o n l y min imal g a i n s toward a c h i e v i n g d e c e p t i o n , and , a c c o r d i n g l y , must be complemented by o t h e r a c t s o f a r t i f i c e . C o n f u s i o n on the p a r t o f the enemy can be i n c r e a s e d by p u t t i n g f o r t h a c o n s i d e r a b l e volume o f n o i s e w h i c h , t o r e i t e r a t e , e n t a i l s i m m a t e r i a l d a t a , the p r i m a r y f u n c t i o n o f which i s t o p l a c e a s t r a i n on the a d v e r s a r y ' s i n t e l l i g e n c e o r g a n i z a t i o n s . 3 9 D i s i n f o r m a t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s an a d d i t i o n a l means t h r o u g h which t o b l o c k enemy c o g n i z a n c e o f r e a l o b j e c t i v e s . D i s i n f o r m a t i o n d i f f e r s from n o i s e m a i n l y i n 19 terms o f p e r t i n e n c e ; s i m p l y p u t , t h e purpose o f t h e former i s t o put f o r t h d i s c e r n i b l e i n t e l l i g e n c e s i g n a l s , a l t h o u g h o f a f ragmentary and m i s g u i d i n g n a t u r e , w h i l e t h e l a t t e r c o n s i s t s o f w h o l l y i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l s i g n a l s . 4 0 D i s i n f o r m a t i o n can be sown v i s - a - v i s v a r i o u s methods. One means o f d i s i n f o r m i n g an a d v e r s a r y i s t h r o u g h d i p l o m a c y ; by u n d e r t a k i n g a renewal o f d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s , a s t a t e e n v i s i o n i n g a g g r e s s i o n can c o n v i n c e i t s t a r g e t t h a t i t i s bent on r e a c h i n g a s e t t l e m e n t r e g a r d i n g m a t t e r s o f i n t e r s t a t e c o n t e n t i o n e x c l u s i v e l y t h r o u g h p a c i f i c m e a n s . 4 1 D i s i n f o r m a t i o n can a l s o be s p r e a d t h r o u g h media . Q u i t e o f t e n , t h e mainstream p r e s s w i l l be used as a medium f o r t r a n s m i t t i n g m i s l e a d i n g i n f o r m a t i o n ; t h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e o f a u t h o r i t a r i a n and t o t a l i t a r i a n s t a t e s , 4 2 i n which the government e x e r t s an o v e r r i d i n g c o n t r o l o v e r the p r e s s . F i n a l l y , d i s i n f o r m a t i o n can be p r o p a g a t e d by i n f i l t r a t i n g an opponent ' s i n t e l l i g e n c e s e r v i c e s w i t h c o u n t e r s p i e s who, i n t u r n , skew t h e a d v e r s a r y ' s p e r c e p t i o n s by p u t t i n g forward m i s g u i d i n g o r mendacious r e p o r t s . 4 3 In summing up , s e c r e c y i n p l a n n i n g and the a b i l i t y t o a d r o i t l y employ t h e v a r i o u s forms o f d e c e p t i o n r e p r e s e n t c r u c i a l p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r a b i d a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . Any at tempt w i t h o u t t h e s e a t t r i b u t e s s t a n d s l i t t l e chance o f s u c c e s s . A n d , toward e s t a b l i s h i n g a j u s t i f i c a t i o n o f a n a l y z i n g the I r a q i a t t a c k t h r o u g h the c o n t e x t o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note t h a t I r a q , under the a e g i s o f the dominant Baath p a r t y , had come 20 t o e p i t o m i z e an a u t o c r a t i c s o c i e t y , and , c o n s e q u e n t l y , approx imated the above ment ioned a t t r i b u t e s c o n d u c i v e t o the r e a l i z a t i o n o f s u r p r i s e . In a d d i t i o n t o e s t i m a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g i t s m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y , as w e l l as i t s a b i l i t y t o p l a n t h e i n r o a d i n a f u r t i v e manner and t o conduct a s t r o n g campaign o f d e c e p t i o n , o b s e r v a t i o n s o f t h e s a l i e n t s h o r t c o m i n g s , which s e r v e t o h e i g h t e n the t a r g e t s t a t e ' s exposure t o s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , c o n s t i t u t e a f u r t h e r component o f the p r o t a g o n i s t ' s s t r u c t u r e o f o p p o r t u n i t y . A w i d e l y a c c e p t e d way o f a t t a i n i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i s t o a t t a c k i n a manner t h a t aims a t e x p l o i t i n g the d i s c e r n e d " c h i n k s i n t h e armor" o f t h e a d v e r s a r y . 4 4 I n d i c a t i o n s o f an absence o f e f f e c t i v e and w a t c h f u l governance , as w e l l as weak m i l i t a r y f o r c e s and inadequate d e f e n s i v e p l a n n i n g , can s e r v e t o c o n v i n c e the e l i t e o f the a g g r e s s o r o f the v i c t i m ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y , t h e r e b y augmenting p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y . Unusua l c i r c u m s t a n c e s w i t h i n an a d v e r s a r y can o f t e n produce an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . 4 5 A g a i n , t r u e r e v o l u t i o n s , l i k e the one t h a t r o c k e d I r a n , can g i v e r i s e t o t h e above ment ioned adverse c o n d i t i o n s c o n d u c i v e t o s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . T h i s t h e s i s argues t h a t the B a a t h i s t s ' o p p o r t u n i s t i c o u t l o o k r e g a r d i n g the f e a s i b i l i t y o f s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s i n g I r a n was p a r t i a l l y grounded on o b s e r v a t i o n s o f a weakening o f i t s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , a development t h a t stemmed from t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n . 21 F o l l o w i n g the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and e x a m i n a t i o n o f the p e r c e p t i o n s u n d e r p i n n i n g the a t t a c k i n g s t a t e ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e f o r s u r p r i s i n g t h e t a r g e t s t a t e , t h e nex t s e q u e n t i a l s t e p i s t o de termine the degree o f a c c u r a c y o f t h e f o r m e r ' s v a l u a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the r a m i f i c a t i o n s t h a t c o u l d stem from t h e i n c u r s i o n . C e n t r a l t o t h i s t a s k i s a d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f whether the e v a l u a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the l i k e l y outcome h e l d by the a g g r e s s o r ' s l e a d e r s h i p were grounded on an i n - d e p t h a n a l y s i s o f f a c t u a l l y a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n o r on i n a d e q u a t e l y weighed a s s u m p t i o n s . M i s c a l c u l a t i o n s o f a s t r a t e g i c n a t u r e w h i c h , f o r example, can i n c l u d e an erroneous a p p r a i s a l o f t h e r e s o l v e o f t h e v i c t i m t o r e p e l the i n r o a d , 4 6 can g i v e r i s e t o h o r r i f i c consequences . A p r i n c i p a l argument o f t h i s t h e s i s w i l l be t h a t Baghdad based s e v e r a l key c a l c u l a t i o n s on s h a l l o w e v i d e n c e and t h a t t h e wide d i s c r e p a n c y between e n v i s i o n e d r e s u l t s and t h e a c t u a l c o u r s e t h a t the war has t a k e n can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o t h i s s t r a t e g i c s h o r t c o m i n g . T i m i n g i s an a d d i t i o n a l , i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r t h a t must be c o n s i d e r e d i n gaug ing the o v e r a l l o p p o r t u n i t y f o r r e a l i z i n g s u r p r i s e . Q u i t e o f t e n , o n s l a u g h t s have been e x e c u t e d a t a c e r t a i n hour and on a s p e c i f i c d a t e i n o r d e r t o c a t c h an a d v e r s a r y o f f g u a r d . In the p a s t , t h e r e have been s e v e r a l i n s t a n c e s i n which the p r o t a g o n i s t has chosen t o s t r i k e when t h e v i c t i m was o b s e r v i n g a n a t i o n a l h o l i d a y o r a day o f r e l i g i o u s worsh ip f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u l a c e . 4 7 The Japanese a t t a c k on P e a r l H a r b o r , which was under taken on a Sunday morn ing , and the 1973 E g y p t i a n - S y r i a n i n r o a d i n t o I s r a e l i o c c u p i e d t e r r i t o r y , the l a u n c h i n g o f which c o i n c i d e d w i t h the onse t o f the i m p o r t a n t Yom K i p p u r r e l i g i o u s h o l i d a y , s t a n d as s t a r k t e s taments t o t h e b e n e f i t s t h a t can a c c r u e t o the a t t a c k e r , as w e l l as the d e b i l i t a t i n g l o s s e s t h a t can be imposed on the t a r g e t s t a t e , by o b s e r v i n g t h i s p r a c t i c e . In a d d i t i o n , s e a s o n a l s h i f t s i n weather c o n d i t i o n s , which a f f e c t the p h y s i c a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l homeostas i s o f man, can a l s o be e x p l o i t e d by an a g g r e s s o r . 4 8 An example o f t h i s s t r a t e g i c t a c t i c would be t o s t r i k e p r i o r t o t h e onse t o f w i n t e r , when c o n c e r n r e g a r d i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y o f a g g r e s s i o n o f the p a r t o f the t a r g e t ' s e l i t e would l i k e l y be m i n i m a l . I t i s here argued t h a t the t i m i n g o f the I r a q i a t t a c k ( l a t e September) r e f l e c t e d t h i s a s sum pt i on . Beyond t a k i n g advantage o f the a forement ioned t e m p o r a l and c l i m a t i c f a c t o r s , e l i t e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , r e g a r d i n g when t o i n i t i a t e the a t t a c k , i s f u r t h e r i n f l u e n c e d by the v a r i o u s q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e advantages a t i t s d i s p o s a l w h i c h , t o r e i t e r a t e , i n c l u d e s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t armaments, e s p i o n a g e , and c o u n t e r e s p i o n a g e a g e n t s , as w e l l as a g e n e r a l d e f e n s i v e unpreparedness w i t h i n the t a r g e t s t a t e . The major dilemma f a c e d by the p r o t a g o n i s t ' s l e a d e r s , i n t h i s r e s p e c t , i s whether t o employ a s s e t s o f t h i s n a t u r e as they o b t a i n them o r t o d e l a y t h e i r 23 u t i l i z a t i o n u n t i l an o p t i m a l l e v e l o f b e n e f i t can be r e a l i z e d . 4 9 A t f i r s t g l a n c e , c h o o s i n g from among the two o p t i o n s does not appear p r o b l e m a t i c . However, i n o p t i n g f o r the l a t t e r r a t h e r t h a n the former w h i c h , i n most i n s t a n c e s stems from the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the p o t e n t i a l f o r g a i n i s g r e a t e r , t h e a g g r e s s o r j e t t i s o n s t h e c e r t a i n t y o f immediate g a i n and must b e a r the a t t e n d a n t c o s t s f o r p r e s e r v i n g the m e a n s . 5 0 Noteworthy examples o f r e s o l v i n g t h e above quandary i n c l u d e the d e c i s i o n by C a i r o and Damascus t o r e f r a i n from employ ing advanced b a t t e r i e s o f a n t i - a i r c r a f t m i s s i l e s s e c r e t l y o b t a i n e d from Moscow p r i o r t o t h e l a u n c h i n g o f t h e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k upon I s r a e l i n 1973, w h i c h , a l t h o u g h r e s u l t i n g i n the l o s s o f a number o f warplanes i n d o g f i g h t s w i t h t h e I s r a e l i a i r f o r c e i n the weeks p r e c e d i n g t h e i n c u r s i o n , e n a b l e d Egypt and S y r i a t o i n f l i c t c o n s i d e r a b l e shock upon c o u n t e r a t t a c k i n g I s r a e l i a i r c r a f t once the a c t u a l i n r o a d had been i n i t i a t e d , thus r e n d e r i n g the c o s t o f p r e s e r v i n g t h i s a s s e t w h o l l y w o r t h w h i l e . 5 1 W i t h r e g a r d t o the case s t u d y a t hand, i t w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d t h a t Baghdad's d e c i s i o n t o a t t a c k i n l a t e September o f 1980 was p a r t i a l l y based on t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the a n a r c h i a l c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n would not p r e v a i l i n d e f i n i t e l y and , c o n s e q u e n t l y , t h a t i t would be t o I r a q ' s advantage t o take a c t i o n b e f o r e t h e c l e r i c a l regime had t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o c o n s o l i d a t e i t s p o l i t i c a l ascendancy and t o r e b u i l d the n a t i o n ' s armed f o r c e s . Two f i n a l o b j e c t i v e s germane t o a n a l y z i n g a s t a t e ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e a r e : f i r s t , an i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e deve lopments , had they a r i s e n , t h a t would have l i k e l y c o m p e l l e d t h e a g g r e s s o r t o abandon the p l a n s f o r a g g r e s s i o n ; and second , a d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f whether o r not the s t a t e e n v i s i o n i n g t h e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k d i s c e r n e d any i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t t h e v i c t i m had an o p p o r t u n i t y t o o b t a i n p r i o r knowledge o f the i n r o a d . U n a n t i c i p a t e d deve lopments , such as a r o u t i n e r o t a t i o n o f t r o o p s , the a c q u i s i t i o n o f new weapon sys tems , o r a s t a b i l i z a t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l a f f a i r s , can dash o r d i m i n i s h o p p o r t u n i t y f o r r e a l i z i n g s u r p r i s e . W i t h r e g a r d t o I r a q , I argue t h a t o n l y t h e emergence o f a s e c u l a r regime i n I r a n , one w i l l i n g t o m a i n t a i n s t r o n g t i e s w i t h the West, would have p r o b a b l y persuaded I r a q t o c a n c e l t h e i n c u r s i o n , and t h a t Baghdad was not d i s s u a d e d from a t t a c k i n g by o b s e r v a t i o n s t h a t Teheran was l i k e l y t o o b t a i n advanced w a r n i n g . H a v i n g put the c a r d i n a l f a c t o r s t h a t shape an a s s a i l i n g s t a t e ' s inducement and o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e s i n t o p e r s p e c t i v e , the d i s c u s s i o n w i l l now f u r t h e r addres s the shor tcomings and c o n d i t i o n s t h a t g i v e r i s e t o t h e v i c t i m n a t i o n ' s exposure t o sudden a g g r e s s i o n . I n s i m i l a r i t y t o t h e a g g r e s s o r ' s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , the s i z e and s t r e n g t h o f the b e s i e g e d n a t i o n ' s de fense f o r c e s c o n s t i t u t e s an i n i t i a l d e t e r m i n a n t t o be e v a l u a t e d i n e x p l a i n i n g v u l n e r a b i l i t y . I t w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e o v e r h a u l i n g o f t h e armed f o r c e s , which was m a i n l y under taken i n consonance w i t h the s p i r i t o f t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n , had an e n e r v a t i n g e f f e c t , b o t h i n q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e t e r m s , upon the d e t e r r e n t v a l u e o f t h e I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y machine . In a d d i t i o n t o an a t t e n u a t i o n o f b a s i c d imens ions o f m i l i t a r y f o r c e , an impairment o f the a b i l i t y o f the t a r g e t s t a t e t o d i s c e r n e x t e r n a l t h r e a t s can r e d o u b l e i t s exposure t o a t t a c k . F a i l u r e t o o b t a i n warning can stem from c o g n i t i v e , o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , and p o l i t i c a l h i n d r a n c e s . The c o g n i t i v e b a r r i e r s encountered by p r o f e s s i o n a l a n a l y s t s i n r o u t i n e i n t e l l i g e n c e m o n i t o r i n g , as C h a r l e s L i n d b l o m has c l e a r l y e s t a b l i s h e d , stem from two p r i n c i p a l , l a r g e l y i n e s c a p a b l e a c t u a l i t i e s : the c i r c u m s c r i b e d e x t e n t o f the human i n t e l l e c t as w e l l as l i m i t a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g ready d a t a . 5 2 W i t h r e g a r d t o the former , o p e r a t i o n a l d y s f u n c t i o n s i n t h e c o l l e c t i o n , a n a l y s i s , and d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f i n t e l l i g e n c e can a r i s e when those charged w i t h t h i s c r u c i a l t a s k a r e c o n f r o n t e d w i t h an o v e r t a x i n g volume o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t must be c l a s s i f i e d as e i t h e r germane s i g n a l s o r i m m a t e r i a l n o i s e . 5 3 A n d , such a c o n d i t i o n can l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e amount o f t ime needed t o t h o r o u g h l y a n a l y z e d a t a , t h e r e b y d e c r e a s i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g . A f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e t h r e a t can a l s o a r i s e when a n a l y s t s make i n f e r e n c e s r e g a r d i n g the d e s i g n s o f an a d v e r s a r y based on e q u i v o c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , a dangerous p r a c t i c e t h a t can r e s u l t i n i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s e s t h a t convey t o p o l i c y - m a k e r s an e l ementary d e p i c t i o n o f what i s , i n a c t u a l i t y , a h i g h l y i n t r i c a t e and v o l a t i l e s i t u a t i o n . 5 4 I t i s i n such s i t u a t i o n s t h a t p e r s o n a l b i a s e s can e n t e r i n t o t h e e q u a t i o n , e f f e c t i n g a f u r t h e r skewing o f the a c c u r a c y o f a n a l y s i s . Indeed , t h e r e e x i s t s a demonstrab le l i n k a g e between t h e l e v e l o f e q u i v o c a t i o n f a c i n g i n t e l l i g e n c e p r o f e s s i o n a l s and the degree t o which they a c t on the b a s i s o f t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l p r e j u d g m e n t s . 5 5 To sum up , i n t e l l i g e n c e f a i l u r e s on the p a r t o f c a r e e r a n a l y s t s can be p r o d u c e d by the f o l l o w i n g c o n d i t i o n s : an i n u n d a t i o n o f d a t a , wh ich can c o n s i s t o f n o i s e put f o r t h by t h e p r o t a g o n i s t ; a p a u c i t y o f r e v e a l i n g i n f o r m a t i o n , which o f t e n stems from h i g h l y s e c r e t i v e p l a n n i n g ; and t e n d e n t i o u s a n a l y s i s . Common b i a s among p o l i t i c a l e l i t e s can a l s o h e i g h t e n exposure t o a t t a c k . C h a r l e s L i n d b l o m , a l e a d i n g s c h o l a r on o r g a n i z a t i o n a l t h e o r y , m a i n t a i n s t h a t one o f t h e more i m p o r t a n t problems i n h e r e n t i n the p r o c e s s o f governmenta l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i s t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s i n v o l v e d i n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f p o l i c y r o u t i n e l y choose o p t i o n s t h a t r e f l e c t p e r s o n a l i d e a l s and e s t i m a t i o n s . 5 6 A n o t a b l e example o f such a c o g n i t i v e o m i s s i o n , which had p r o f o u n d l y grave consequences f o r the t a r g e t s t a t e , was S t a l i n ' s r e j e c t i o n o f i n t e l l i g e n c e s i g n a l s t h a t i n d i c a t e d a looming German o n s l a u g h t , a d e c i s i o n based on h i s p e r s o n a l c o n v i c t i o n t h a t H i t l e r was a r a t i o n a l a c t o r and , a c c o r d i n g l y , would not u n d e r t a k e so i r r a t i o n a l an a c t as an i r r u p t i o n o f the S o v i e t U n i o n . In a d d i t i o n t o i n d i v i d u a l e l i t e b i a s , the phenomenon o f " g r o u p t h i n k , " which i s m a i n l y p e c u l i a r t o reg imes under the sway o f c l o s e - k n i t e l i t e s t h a t d i s c o u r a g e any d e v i a t i o n s i n thought from the championed d o c t r i n e , 5 7 can pose a d d i t i o n a l problems f o r the p r e s e r v a t i o n o f n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . I t w i l l be demonstrated t h a t "groupth ink" among t h e c l e r i c a l z e a l o t s who came t o power i n I r a n was a major c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the f a i l u r e t o g a i n advanced warn ing o f t h e I r a q i i n c u r s i o n . Problems r e g a r d i n g t h r e a t d e t e c t i o n a r e v e r y o f t e n engendered by the i n t r i c a t e , h i e r a r c h i a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f governmenta l i n s t i t u t i o n s charged w i t h the t a s k o f s a f e g u a r d i n g n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . G i v e n the c o m p l e x i t y and s e n s i t i v i t y o f i n t e l l i g e n c e o p e r a t i o n s , n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y o r g a n i z a t i o n s u s u a l l y compr i se a m y r i a d o f departments and o f f i c e s a s s i g n e d h i g h l y s p e c i f i c t a s k s . A n d , more o f t e n t h a n n o t , i n t r a o f f i c e and i n t r a o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n i s s t r i c t l y l i m i t e d , a s t r u c t u r a l c o n d i t i o n o f t e n a l l u d e d t o as " c o m p a r t m e n t a t i o n . " 5 8 A d d i t i o n a l l y , c o m p e t i t i o n o v e r l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s and p r e r o g a t i v e s between d i f f e r e n t b u r e a u s , as w e l l as s t a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , f u r t h e r d i m i n i s h e s c o o p e r a t i o n and the s h a r i n g o f d a t a . F o r 28 example, t h e i n t e n s e r i v a l r y and t h e r e s u l t a n t d e a r t h o f c o o r d i n a t i o n between U.S. s e c u r i t y a g e n c i e s , b o t h c i v i l i a n and m i l i t a r y , c o n t r i b u t e d h e a v i l y t o t h e P e a r l H a r b or d e b a c l e . The f a c t t h a t t h e conveyance o f a f o r m a l w a r n i n g o f impending a t t a c k t o o n - s i t e commanders i n H a w a i i c o i n c i d e d w i t h t h e a c t u a l a r r i v a l o f Japanese torpedo-bomber a i r c r a f t s t a n d s as a s o b e r i n g d e m o n s t r a t i o n o f t h e p o t e n t i a l consequences t h a t can r e s u l t from i n t r a b u r e a u f r i c t i o n . R e g a r d i n g t h e main f o c u s o f t h i s s t u d y , s p e c i f i c a l l y t h e f a c t o r s t h a t h e i g h t e n e d I r a n ' s exposure t o a s u r p r i s e I r a q i a t t a c k , i t w i l l be p o s i t e d t h a t Teheran's f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e and e f f e c t i v e l y r e a c t t o w a r n i n g s i g n a l s can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r i f e between go v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s founded d u r i n g t h e m o n a r c h i a l epoch and t o t h o s e e s t a b l i s h e d a f t e r t h e o n s e t o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n . O v e r a l l , c o g n i t i v e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l o b s t a c l e s c o n s t i t u t e d , i n l a r g e p a r t , t h e c a u s a t i o n o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n ' s i n t e l l i g e n c e s h o r t c o m i n g s . A f t e r c i t i n g t h e key i n a d e q u a c i e s r e g a r d i n g t h e v i c t i m ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s and e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e v a r i o u s f a c t o r s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e f a i l u r e o f i t s i n t e l l i g e n c e s e r v i c e s t o o b t a i n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g , t h e n e x t germane o b j e c t i v e s a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g : t o d i s c e r n whether o r n o t t h e a g g r e s s o r b e n e f i t t e d from t h e p r e s e n c e o f s u p p o r t e r s w i t h i n t h e t a r g e t s t a t e ; t o i d e n t i f y and examine u n i q u e v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s ; and, t o d e t e r m i n e t h e l e v e l o f t h e 2 9 a g g r e s s o r ' s c o g n i z a n c e o f the aggregate v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s o f the t a r g e t s t a t e . W i t h r e g a r d t o the I r a q - I r a n c a s e , i t w i l l be argued t h a t agents work ing w i t h i n t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , on b e h a l f o f the c o n s e r v a t i v e I r a n i a n e x i l e community r e s i d i n g w i t h i n I r a q , p r o v i d e d u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n t o Baghdad r e g a r d i n g I r a n ' s s h o r t c o m i n g s . In a d d i t i o n , i t w i l l be h e l d t h a t because o f the a l r e a d y - m e n t i o n e d breakdown o f n o r m a t i v e b e h a v i o r among e l i t e p o l i c y - m a k e r s and the s t a n d a r d o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e s adhered t o by m i l i t a r y and governmenta l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s exposure was f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e d . F i n a l l y , i t w i l l be demonstrated t h a t t h e I r a q i e l i t e was f u l l y aware o f p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n ' s "window o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y . " A f i n a l v a r i a b l e t o be a n a l y z e d r e g a r d i n g v u l n e r a b i l i t y i s whether any o f f i c i a l s w i t h i n t h e b e s i e g e d s t a t e had o p e n l y expres sed a b e l i e f t h a t a g g r e s s i o n was l i k e l y and , i f s o , why no p r e c a u t i o n a r y a c t i o n was u n d e r t a k e n . I p o s i t t h a t a number o f s e c u l a r I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s , p r i n c i p a l l y P r e s i d e n t B a n i - S a d r , o p e n l y m a i n t a i n e d on numerous o c c a s i o n s t h a t t h e I r a q i a t t a c k was p e n d i n g b u t , due t o i n t e n s e p o l i t i c a l f e u d i n g w i t h the r e a c t i o n a r y c l e r i c s , l i t t l e importance was a t t a c h e d t o h i s m o n i t i o n s . Once t h e inducement s t r u c t u r e and the p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y t h a t animated t h e a t t a c k i n g s t a t e a r e e l u c i d a t e d , and the c a u s a l f a c t o r s u n d e r p i n n i n g the t a r g e t 30 s t a t e ' s exposure t o a t t a c k a r e i d e n t i f i e d , t h e l a s t r e m a i n i n g component o f the e q u a t i o n t o be worked out i s the s t a t e o f r e l a t i o n s between the a g g r e s s o r , the v i c t i m , and t h i r d s t a t e s , and how t h i s i n f l u e n c e d t h e f o r m e r ' s i n c e n t i v e s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s , as w e l l as t h e l a t t e r ' s exposure t o shock . In s h o r t , i t i s p o s t u l a t e d t h a t t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c f o l l o w e d a c o n f r o n t a t i o n a l f o r e i g n p o l i c y , which was l a r g e l y grounded on the o v e r r i d i n g d e s i g n o f s p r e a d i n g an a f f i n i t y f o r r e v o l u t i o n a r y S h i 1 i t e I s l a m t h r o u g h o u t the P e r s i a n G u l f r e g i o n and beyond. A n d , a c c o r d i n g l y , by September o f 1980, I r a n was i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y i s o l a t e d and l a c k e d s t r o n g a l l i e s . R e g a r d i n g I r a q on t h i s s c o r e , i t w i l l be demonstrated t h a t t h e B a a t h i s t s , who were once v iewed as one o f t h e more r a d i c a l , a n t i - W e s t e r n A r a b r e g i m e s , s i g n i f i c a n t l y improved r e l a t i o n s w i t h c o n s e r v a t i v e Arab n a t i o n s and t h e West d u r i n g the p e r i o d between J a n u a r y 1979 and September 1980 and , as a r e s u l t , was emboldened by a number o f de f a c t o a l l i e s and a sound base o f l o g i s t i c a l s u p p o r t . O v e r a l l , i t i s h e r e i n argued t h a t the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n e f f e c t e d a p r o f o u n d a l t e r a t i o n o f the G u l f b a l a n c e o f power w h i c h , c o n c o m i t a n t l y , a f f o r d e d Baghdad, o r more a c c u r a t e l y , Saddam H u s s e i n , a s i g n i f i c a n t o p p o r t u n i t y t o e s t a b l i s h I r a q as the r e g i o n a l hegemon, a r o l e t h a t had l o n g been p l a y e d by m o n a r c h i a l I r a n , but which the c l e r i c a l e l i t e o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c was bent on t e r m i n a t i n g . 31 The Importance o f S t u d y i n g S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e Indeed , s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , as c l e a r l y e v i d e n c e d by t h e d e s c r i p t i o n i n the p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , c o n s t i t u t e s a complex phenomenon f o r s t u d y . Beyond t h e i r s a l i e n c e f o r the a g g r e s s o r and t a r g e t s t a t e , e f f o r t s t o r e a l i z e s t r a t e g i c shock can produce f a r - r a n g i n g r a m i f i c a t i o n s f o r t h i r d n a t i o n s . The i l l - f a t e d outcome o f t h e I r a q i a d v e n t u r e , which has s e r v e d t o i n c r e a s e r a t h e r t h a n d i m i n i s h t h e l e v e l o f t h r e a t t o t h e s e c u r i t y o f a l l G u l f A r a b s t a t e s , s h o u l d - no t be c o n s t r u e d as u n u s u a l . In s e v e r a l n o t a b l e p a s t i n s t a n c e s , namely the German a t t a c k on the S o v i e t U n i o n and the Japanese s t r i k e on P e a r l H a r b o r , e l i t e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f a v o i d i n g a p r o t r a c t e d and c o s t l y c o n f l i c t d i d not o b t a i n . F o r example, the P e a r l H a r b o r e p i s o d e s e t i n mot ion a s e r i e s o f e v e n t s t h a t r e s u l t e d i n t h e smashing o f Japanese hegemony o v e r v a s t a r e a s o f e a s t e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n A s i a , the c u l m i n a t i o n o f which was marked by the g h a s t l y a tomic bombings o f H i r o s h i m a and Nagasak i and the advent o f A m e r i c a n i m p e r i a l i s m i n the r e g i o n , a development most a c u t e l y f e l t by L a o s , V i e t n a m , and Cambodia. I n r e c e n t y e a r s , the c e n t r a l importance o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i n Amer ican n u c l e a r w a r f a r e s t r a t e g y has become i n c r e a s i n g l y p r o m i n e n t . T h i s development has been c l e a r l y e v i d e n c e d by the development o f e x t r e m e l y a c c u r a t e and h i g h l y d e s t r u c t i v e weapon systems, i n c l u d i n g the S t e a l t h (B- 2) bomber, t h e T r i d e n t I I s u b m a r i n e - l a u n c h e d b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e (SLBM), which employs t h e advanced Mk-500 warhead, and t h e Seawolf n u c l e a r a t t a c k submarine . In a d d i t i o n , v a r i o u s c o n f r o n t a t i o n a l m a c h i n a t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y the use o f A - 6 a t t a c k a i r c r a f t , based on t h e A l e u t i a n i s l a n d o f Adak, t o conduct r e g u l a r mock bombing s o r t i e s a g a i n s t the l a r g e S o v i e t n a v a l i n s t a l l a t i o n a t P e t r o p a v l o s k , have become i n c r e a s i n g l y commonplace d u r i n g the t e n u r e o f the t r u c u l e n t Reagan a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . Moreover , the concomi tant movement away from an adherence t o t h e concept o f mutual a s s u r e d d e s t r u c t i o n (MAD), a l o n g w i t h i t s s i g n i f i c a n t d e t e r r e n t v a l u e , toward the r e a l i z a t i o n o f an i n h e r e n t l y dangerous f i r s t - s t r i k e , o f f e n s i v e p o s t u r e , has h e i g h t e n e d the w a r i n e s s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and r a i s e d the danger o f a m i s r e a d i n g o f s i g n a l s a t t h e K r e m l i n w h i c h , u l t i m a t e l y , c o u l d t r i g g e r an a c c i d e n t a l n u c l e a r exchange. O v e r a l l , the i n c r e a s i n g l y p r e c a r i o u s p o s t u r e o f the S o v i e t U n i o n , and a l l t h e g r a v e , p o t e n t i a l consequences t h i s development c a r r i e s , c l e a r l y m a n i f e s t s the importance o f s t u d y i n g the phenomenon o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . 33 CHAPTER I NOTES 1 C o l o n e l John J . Graham, t r a n s , and a n n o t . , On War: G e n e r a l C a r l Von C l a u s e w i t z (Boston: R o u t l e d g e & Kegan P a u l , I n c . , 1968) , p . 200. 2 K l a u s s K n o r r and P a t r i c k Morgan, S t r a t e g i c M i l i t a r y S u r p r i s e : I n c e n t i v e s and O p p o r t u n i t i e s (New- B r u n s w i c k , New J e r s e y : T r a n s a c t i o n Books, 1983) , p . 2. 3 I b i d . 4 R i c h a r d K. B e t t s , S u r p r i s e A t t a c k : Lessons f o r Defence P l a n n i n g (Washington, D . C . : B r o o k i n g s I n s t i t u t i o n , 1982) . 5 D o n a l d D a n i e l and K a t h e r i n e L . H e r b i g , M u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r v P e r s p e c t i v e s on M i l i t a r y D e c e p t i o n (Monterey , C a l i f o r n i a : Nava l P o s t g r a d u a t e S c h o o l , 1980) . 6 B a r t o n Whaley, S tra tagem: D e c e p t i o n and S u r p r i s e i n War (Cambridge: C e n t e r f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , M a s s a c h u s e t t s I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o l o g y , 1969) . 7 J o h n Gooch and Amos P e r l m u t t e r , M i l i t a r y D e c e p t i o n and S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e (Totawa, New J e r s e y : F . C a s s , I n c . , 1982) . 8 A l i E . H i l l a l D e s s o u k i , e d . , "The I r a n - I r a q War: An O v e r v i e w , " i n The I r a n - I r a q War: I s sues o f C o n f l i c t and P r o s p e c t s f o r S e t t l e m e n t ( P r i n c e t o n : C e n t e r o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , Woodrow W i l s o n S c h o o l o f P u b l i c and I n t e r n a t i o n a l A f f a i r s , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y , 1981) . 9 N i c o l a F i r z l i , e d . , The I r a n - I r a q C o n f l i c t ( P a r i s : I n s t i t u t e o f Near E a s t e r n S t u d i e s and R e s e a r c h , E d i t i o n s du Monde A r a b e , 1981) . 1 0 S t e p h e n R. Grummon, The I r a n - I r a g War: I s l am E m b a t t l e d (Washington, D . C . : The C e n t e r f o r S t r a t e g i c and I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , Georgetown U n i v e r s i t y , 1982) . 1 1 S h a u l Bakhash, The R e i g n o f t h e A y a t o l l a h s : I r a n and t h e I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n (New Y o r k : B a s i c Books, 1984) . 1 2 R o u h o l l a h K. Ramazani , R e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n : C h a l l e n g e and Response i n the M i d d l e E a s t ( B a l t i m o r e : The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1988) . 1 3 T i m o t h y N i b l o c k , e d . , I r a q : The Contemporary S t a t e (London: Croom Helm, L t d . , 1982) . 1 4 P h e b e M a r r , The Modern H i s t o r y o f I r a q ( B o u l d e r , C o l o r a d o : Westview P r e s s , 1985) . 1 5 F a u d M a t a r , Saddam H u s s e i n : The Man, the Cause , and t h e F u t u r e (London: T h i r d Wor ld C e n t r e , 1981) . 1 6 J o e l D a v i d S i n g e r , " A c c o u n t i n g f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l War: The S t a t e o f t h e D i s c i p l i n e , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h 1 ( F e b r u a r y 1981) :3 . 1 7 K n o r r and Morgan, p . 174. 1 8 I b i d . , p . 197. 1 9 I b i d . , p . 175. 2 0 J o e l D a v i d S i n g e r , " T h r e a t - P e r c e p t i o n and the Armament-Tens ion Di lemma," J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n 1 (March 1958) :3 . 2 1 K e i t h L . N e l s o n and Spencer C . O l i n , J r . , Why War?: I d e o l o g y , T h e o r y , and H i s t o r y ( B e r k e l e y : The U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1979), p . 54. 2 2 I b i d . , p . 62. 2 3 K n o r r and Morgan, p . 195. 2 4 R o b e r t A x e l r o d , "The R a t i o n a l T i m i n g o f S u r p r i s e , " Wor ld P o l i t i c s 2 (January 1979):230. 2 5 K n o r r and Morgan, p . 196. 2 6 I b i d . , p . 201. 2 7 N e l s o n and O l i n , p . 39. 2 8 G r a h a m , p . 207. 2 9 I b i d . 3 0 W h a l e y , p . 3. 3 1 I b i d . , p . 9. 3 2 D a n i e l and H e r b i g , p . 56. 3 3 W h a l e y , p . 131. 3 4 D a n i e l and H e r b i g , p . 6. 3 5 B a r t o n Whaley, Codeword B a r b a r o s s a (Cambridge: C e n t e r f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , M a s s a c h u s e t t s I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n o l o g y , 1973) , p . 242. 3 6 I b i d . 3 7 D a n i e l and H e r b i g , p . 4. 3 8 W h a l e y , S tra tagem: D e c e p t i o n and S u r p r i s e i n War. p . 16. 3 9 I b i d . , p . 17. 4 0 I b i d . 4 1 I b i d . , p . 22. 4 2 I b i d . , p . 21 . 4 3 I b i d . , p . 23. 4 4 K n o r r and Morgan, p . 200. 4 5 I b i d . , p . 195. 4 6 I b i d . , p . 197. 4 7 W h a l e y , S tra tagem: D e c e p t i o n and S u r p r i s e i n War. p . 180. 4 8 I b i d . , p . 179. 4 9 A x e l r o d , p . 232. 5 0 I b i d . 5 1 I b i d . 5 2 C h a r l e s L i n d b l o m , "The S c i e n c e o f ' M u d d l i n g T h r o u g h , ' " P u b l i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n Review 2 ( S p r i n g 1959):84. 5 3 A r i e l L e v i t e , I n t e l l i g e n c e and S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e (New Y o r k : Columbia U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1987) , p . 13. 5 4 B e t t s , p . 69. 5 5 I b i d . , p. 70. 5 6 L i n d b l o m , p. 79. 5 7 L e v i t e , p. 10. 5 8 i b i d . , p. 17. CHAPTER I I IRAQ'S INCENTIVES: DEFENSIVE, OFFENSIVE, AND IDEOLOGICAL-CULTURAL In e a r l y J a n u a r y o f 1980, which marked t h e end o f m o n a r c h i a l governance i n I r a n , r e l a t i o n s between Baghdad and v Teheran were not o f a s t r a i n e d n a t u r e . T h i s m a i n l y p a c i f i c r e l a t i o n s h i p was l a r g e l y based on the covenant , s i g n e d by t h e two s t a t e s i n 1975, which r e s o l v e d the l o n g - s t a n d i n g , major s o u r c e s o f i n t e r s t a t e f r i c t i o n . However, t h i s s t a t u s quo began t o b r e a k down w i t h the i n c e p t i o n o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n . T h i s c h a p t e r s t u d i e s the e f f e c t s o f the r e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n upon I r a q i - I r a n i a n t i e s and how t h i s s h i f t gave r i s e t o c e r t a i n a s p e c t s o f the B a a t h i s t s ' s t r u c t u r e o f m o t i v a t i o n s f o r s e e k i n g a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . F o r t h i s p u r p o s e , the i n i t i a l p a r t o f t h i s e x a m i n a t i o n e s t a b l i s h e s Baghdad's d e f e n s i v e a c t u a t i o n s f o r a t t a c k i n g I r a n . T h i s w i l l be f o l l o w e d by an a n a l y s i s o f I r a q ' s e n t e r p r i s i n g a m b i t i o n s . F i n a l l y , the i d e o l o g i c a l , e t h n i c , and c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s p a r t i a l l y c o n s t i t u t i n g Baghdad's i n c l i n a t i o n f o r a g g r e s s i o n a g a i n s t I r a n a r e s t u d i e d . D e f e n s i v e Inducements I d e n t i f y i n g d e f e n s i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l f a c t o r s r e p r e s e n t s a l o g i c a l p o i n t o f i n i t i a t i o n f o r e v a l u a t i n g a 37 38 r e g i m e ' s impetus f o r u n d e r t a k i n g a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . W i t h r e g a r d t o the I r a q - I r a n c a s e , i t was the s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l u n r e s t i n the l a t t e r t h a t evoked i n c r e a s i n g u n c e r t a i n t y and f e a r among the e l i t e o f the f o r m e r . I n i t i a l l y , the I r a q i Government r e a c t e d t o the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n w i t h guarded o p t i m i s m ; p r a i s e was extended t o the I r a n i a n masses i n t h e i r s u c c e s s f u l b i d t o t o p p l e t h e d i c t a t o r s h i p o f Shah Muhammad Reza P a h l a v i . A n d , i t was a s s e r t e d t h a t Baghdad would remain a l o o f from entanglement i n domes t i c I r a n i a n a f f a i r s . F o r example, i n F e b r u a r y o f 1979, d u r i n g an i n t e r v i e w w i t h the I r a q i magazine A l i f B a , Saddam H u s s e i n , the n a t i o n ' s acknowledged p o l i t i c a l s trongman, m a i n t a i n e d t h a t I r a q h a r b o r e d no d e s i g n s o f a t t e m p t i n g t o i n f l u e n c e the c o u r s e o f events i n I r a n , and t h a t t h e Baath regime was w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t "whatever t h e I r a n i a n p e o p l e d e c i d e . " 1 However, from the o u t s e t , Saddam H u s s e i n c a u t i o n e d t h a t a p r e s e r v a t i o n o f normal t i e s between Baghdad and the r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n i a n regime would be c o n t i n g e n t upon the l a t t e r ' s r e f r a i n i n g from m e d d l i n g i n i n t e r n a l I r a q i m a t t e r s . The hope o f the r u l i n g Baath p a r t y t h a t t h e r e v o l u t i o n would not a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t r e l a t i o n s between t h e two s t a t e s soon faded as i t became r e a d i l y a p p a r e n t t h a t the de j u r e government headed by the c e n t r i s t Prime M i n i s t e r Mehdi Bazargan , which was g e n u i n e l y d e s i r o u s o f c o r d i a l r e l a t i o n s w i t h s u r r o u n d i n g Mus l im n a t i o n s , l a c k e d a s o l i d base o f p o p u l a r s u p p o r t , and t h a t a c o t e r i e o f z e a l o u s S h i ' i t e c l e r i c s under the a e g i s o f A y a t o l l a h R u h o l l a h K h o m e i n i , who championed r a d i c a l I s l a m i c v a l u e s , were f a s t emerging as t h e de f a c t o l o c u s o f power. The S h i 1 i t e e x t r e m i s t s who came t o h o l d sway i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n b e l i e v e d t h a t they were o b l i g a t e d t o a t tempt t o f o s t e r a b u r g e o n i n g o f t r a d i t i o n a l I s l a m i c s en t iment throughout the Mus l im w o r l d . I r a q , due t o i t s g e o g r a p h i c a l p r o x i m i t y and s i z a b l e p o p u l a t i o n o f S h i ' i t e a d h e r e n t s , was l o o k e d upon as a p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e f o r the p a n - I s l a m i c c r u s a d e . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t was the p o s i t i o n o f K h o m e i n i , which was based upon p e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n s made w h i l e l i v i n g i n e x i l e i n t h e I r a q i c i t y o f N a j a f , t h a t the Baath e l i t e en joyed o n l y a m a r g i n a l base o f p o p u l a r s u p p o r t , 2 and , c o n s e q u e n t l y , the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n would s e r v e as a c a t a l y s t t o an analogous p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l p e r t u r b a t i o n i n I r a q . S h o r t l y a f t e r d e p o s i n g the Shah, the I r a n i a n churchmen commenced a campaign t o undermine p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y w i t h i n I r a q , which i n c l u d e d t h e a f f o r d i n g o f a s s i s t a n c e t o e lements a v e r s e t o the B a a t h i s t s ' dominance, namely S h i ' i t e f u n d a m e n t a l i s t s and e t h n i c K u r d i s h i r r e d e n t i s t s , as w e l l as the d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f a n t i - B a a t h p r o p a g a n d a . Compounding Baghdad's a p p r e h e n s i o n was the outward en thus iasm f o r the v i c t o r i o u s r e v o l u t i o n a r y s t r u g g l e a g a i n s t t h e o p p r e s s i v e Shah, as e x p r e s s e d by the m i n o r i t y o f I r a q i S h i a s who espoused fundamental I s l a m i c v a l u e s , a s i g n i f i c a n t 40 p e r c e n t a g e o f whom were s u p p o r t e r s o f t h e I s l a m i c C a l l [ a l - Da'wah a l - I s l a m i y a h ] , a S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n opposed t o the i d e o l o g i c a l i m p e r a t i v e s observed by the B a a t h i s t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e r e l e g a t i n g o f I s l a m t o a s t r i c t l y a p o l i t i c a l s o c i e t a l r o l e . The I s l a m i c C a l l was under t h e d i r e c t i o n o f H u j j a t a l - I s l a m Muhammad B a q i r a l - Hakim, who was encouraged by the r e v o l u t i o n a r y t u m u l t i n I r a n t o i n t e n s i f y h i s o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s a n t i - B a a t h campaign. To t h e f u r t h e r dismay o f the Baath e l i t e , two a d d i t i o n a l S h i ' i t e t r a d i t i o n a l i s t groups emerged i n I r a q a t t h i s j u n c t u r e : the M u s l i m W a r r i o r s [ a l - M u j a h i d i n ] , l e d by Sayyed a b d - u l - A z i z a l - H a k i m , and the O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r I s l a m i c A c t i o n [Munazzamat a l - A m a l a l - I s l a m i ] , which was under the command o f Muhammad T a q i a l - M u d a r r i s i . The Baath l e a d e r s h i p was de termined t o f o r e s t a l l a s p i l l i n g - o v e r o f r e a c t i o n a r y I s l a m i c f e r v o r and , i n l i n e w i t h t h i s end , d u r i n g the f i r s t few months f o l l o w i n g the a b r u p t end o f m o n a r c h i a l r u l e i n I r a n , Baghdad sen t i n t o e x i l e a number o f c l e r i c s who had open ly demonstrated an a f f i n i t y f o r t r a d i t i o n a l S h i ' i s m . Most o f t h e e x p e l l e d churchmen t o o k up r e s i d e n c e i n the I r a n i a n h o l y c e n t e r o f Qom where t h e y began t o put f o r t h b i t t e r condemnations o f Baath governance , a development t h a t s e r v e d t o f u r t h e r f u e l t h e r i s i n g t e n s i o n between I r a q and I r a n . D u r i n g an i n t e r v i e w h e l d i n Qom on 22 June 1979, A y a t o l l a h Mohammad a l - H u s a y n i , one o f I r a q ' s most r e s p e c t e d c l e r i c s , charged t h a t t h e r e p r e s s i v e l e a n i n g o f the Baath regime was the fundamental f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the growing s i g n s o f u n r e s t among segments o f I r a q ' s S h i ' i t e p o p u l a c e . S h i r a z i f u r t h e r h e l d t h a t some " f i f t y thousand I r a q i s a r e l a n g u i s h i n g i n p r i s o n and a r e s u b j e c t t o t h e most savage t o r t u r e , " and t h a t " there i s not a s i n g l e f r e e paper i n I r a q . " 3 I n re sponse t o t h e B a a t h i s t s ' e x p u l s i o n s o f r a n k i n g c l e r i c a l a u t h o r i t i e s , the I s l a m i c C a l l , a l o n g w i t h the O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r I s l a m i c A c t i o n and the M u s l i m W a r r i o r s , i n i t i a t e d an u r b a n w a r f a r e campaign, w i t h an emphasis on s a b o t a g i n g i m p o r t a n t m i l i t a r y and i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s and on s t a g i n g armed a t t a c k s a g a i n s t h i g h government o f f i c i a l s . The most d a r i n g o f the a c t i o n s under taken by o p e r a t i v e s o f t h e v a r i o u s S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s t groups i n c l u d e d an u n s u c c e s s f u l a t tempt t o damage I r a q ' s main n a v a l y a r d a t B a s r a and an a b o r t i v e e f f o r t t o a s s a s s i n a t e Deputy Prime M i n i s t e r T a r i q A z i z on 1 A p r i l 1980, w h i l e he was d e l i v e r i n g an addres s a t the M u s t a n s i r i y a h U n i v e r s i t y i n Baghdad. The would-be a s s a s s i n , who was wounded and c a p t u r e d , was i d e n t i f i e d as Samir M i r Gholam, an I r a n i a n immigrant who had r e c e n t l y o b t a i n e d I r a q i c i t i z e n s h i p . 4 S h o r t l y a f t e r w a r d , the Government o f f i c i a l l y d i s c l o s e d t h a t Gholam was an agent o f t h e I s l a m i c C a l l and i n t i m a t e d t h a t Teheran was e x t e n d i n g s u p p o r t t o the movement. I r a q i a u t h o r i t i e s put forward f u r t h e r e v i d e n c e o f t h e I r a n i a n c l e r i c s ' c o m p l i c i t y i n a b e t t i n g a n t i - B a a t h 4 2 s u b v e r s i v e s i n l a t e May, when S a l a h A l - A l i , a d i p l o m a t a t t a c h e d t o I r a q ' s m i s s i o n t o the U n i t e d N a t i o n s , made a v a i l a b l e t o t h e G e n e r a l Assembly c o p i e s o f a c o n f e s s i o n e x t r a c t e d from A b d u l Ameor Hameed a l - M a n s o u r i , a c a p t u r e d member o f the I s l a m i c C a l l , who had r e v e a l e d d u r i n g i n t e r r o g a t i o n t h a t the K h o m e i n i s t s ' a t tempts t o promote d i s s e n s i o n w i t h i n I r a q i n c l u d e d t h e a f f o r d i n g o f f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e and weaponry t o the I s l a m i c C a l l and a l l o w i n g agents o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n t o c r o s s the I r a n i a n f r o n t i e r un impeded .5 An a d d i t i o n a l s o u r c e o f a n x i e t y f o r Baghdad was the s u p p o r t o f the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n open ly p r o f e s s e d by A y a t o l l a h S a y y i d a l - S a d r , I r a q ' s c a r d i n a l S h i ' i t e churchman. To A y a t o l l a h a l - S a d r , the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ( the o f f i c i a l d e s i g n a t i o n o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n i a n p o l i t y ) c o n s t i t u t e d a model o f an i d e a l I s l a m i c p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m , 6 and he f u r t h e r dismayed the B a a t h i s t s by f r e q u e n t l y m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t he e n v i s i o n e d the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a comparable p o l i t i c a l system i n I r a q , i n which he , as the n a t i o n ' s foremost c l e r i c , would s e r v e as b o t h h e a d - o f - s t a t e and h e a d - o f - g o v e r n m e n t . The l a u d a t i o n s o f A y a t o l l a h a l - S a d r were w e l l r e c e i v e d i n Qom, where the c l e r i c a l l e a d e r s h i p began t o a l l u d e t o him as the "Khomeini o f I r a q . " 7 Not u n e x p e c t e d l y , A y a t o l l a h a l - S a d r ' s championing o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I s l am r e s u l t e d i n a d i r e c t c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h Saddam H u s s e i n , who conveyed h i s i n t e n t o f p r e c l u d i n g an i n c i t e m e n t o f t r a d i t i o n a l S h i 1 i sm t o the s p i r i t u a l l e a d e r v i s - a - v i s a p e r s o n a l l e t t e r s en t i n May o f 1979, i n which he admonished t h a t "I s h a l l not a l l o w the I r a n i a n exper iment t o be r e p e a t e d i n I r a q and A y a t o l l a h a l - S a d r t o become Imam S a d r . " 8 The B a a t h i s t s opted t o c o u n t e r the d e s t a b i l i z i n g m a c h i n a t i o n s u n d e r t a k e n by t h e r a d i c a l I s l a m i c groups w i t h a heavy h a n d . The ou tbreak o f v i o l e n t a t t a c k s upon I r a q i s ta te smen , a l l e g e d l y c a r r i e d out by I r a n i a n - b a c k e d o p e r a t i v e s , p r o v i d e d t h e I r a q i e l i t e w i t h d e f e n s i b l e grounds t o c r a c k down on S h i 1 i t e a c t i v i s t s and t o a s s a i l t h e i n v o l v e m e n t o f the c l e r i c a l I r a n i a n reg ime . F o l l o w i n g the a b o r t i v e a s s a s s i n a t i o n at tempt on T a r i q A z i z , Saddam H u s s e i n moved t o d i m i n i s h the p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t t o i n t e r n a l s t a b i l i t y posed by t h e p r e s e n c e o f l a r g e numbers o f I r a n i a n s c h o l a r s s t u d y i n g a t t h e s c o r e s o f I s l a m i c community c e n t e r s l o c a t e d i n t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n S h i ' i t e h o l y c e n t e r s o f K a r b a l a , K a d h i m a i n , N a j a f , K u f a , and B a s r a . These I r a n i a n s were l o o k e d upon as a p o t e n t i a l f i f t h column t h a t c o u l d foment S h i ' i t e f a n a t i c i s m . Saddam H u s s e i n moved t o c o u n t e r t h i s p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t by f o r c i b l y d e p o r t i n g some f o r t y thousand o f t h e s e " u n d e s i r a b l e s . " T h i s development evoked an o u t p o u r i n g o f b i t t e r a n t i - B a a t h r e c r i m i n a t i o n s from Teheran and Qom and e f f e c t e d a c o n s i d e r a b l e h e i g h t e n i n g o f t e n s i o n between I r a q and I r a n . In an at tempt t o l i m i t domes t i c and i n t e r n a t i o n a l o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e f o r c e d e x p u l s i o n s , I r a q i d i p l o m a t s argued b e f o r e the G e n e r a l Assembly t h a t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s charges t h a t the d e p o r t a t i o n s were p a r t o f a g e n e r a l a n t i - S h i ' i t e campaign b e i n g waged by Baghdad were g r o u n d l e s s ; they f u r t h e r i n s i s t e d t h a t the Government had o u s t e d o n l y those who had "committed b l a t a n t a c t s o f t e r r o r i s m a t t h e i n s t i g a t i o n and w i t h t h e f u l l s u p p o r t o f the I r a n i a n r e g i m e . " 9 In a d d i t i o n t o the l a r g e - s c a l e e x p u l s i o n s o f I r a n i a n S h i a s , t h e B a a t h i s t s sought t o f u r t h e r o f f s e t the menace t o the i n t e r n a l s t a t u s quo, p o r t e n d e d by an o u t b u r s t o f o r t h o d o x S h i ' i s m , by j a i l i n g and e x e c u t i n g a number o f top c l e r g y m e n , i n c l u d i n g A y a t o l l a h a l - S a d r , who was p u t t o death i n l a t e A p r i l o f 1980 a f t e r b e i n g found c u l p a b l e o f c o l l u d i n g w i t h the K h o m e i n i s t s i n a p l o t t o undermine s t a b i l i t y w i t h i n I r a q . The u n t i m e l y demise o f an esteemed c o - r e l i g i o n i s t , whom Khomeini had e s t a b l i s h e d a c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h d u r i n g h i s l o n g p e r i o d o f e x i l e i n I r a q , d e e p l y d i s t r e s s e d the I r a n i a n s p i r i t u a l l e a d e r . 1 0 In a d d i t i o n , Baghdad's r e p r e s s i o n o f p r o - t r a d i t i o n a l i s t churchmen was d e p l o r e d by the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s m i n i s t e r i a l l e a d e r s , who charged t h a t a l - S a d r ' s e x e c u t i o n c o n s t i t u t e d c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e o f Saddam H u s s e i n ' s r u t h l e s s bent t o " o b l i t e r a t e the p o p u l a r I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n . 1 , 1 1 Moreover , A y a t o l l a h Seyyed Shahaboddin M a r ' a s h i N a j a f i , a n o t h e r p o w e r f u l I r a n i a n e c c l e s i a s t i c , admonished t h a t the "unmanly a c t s " p e r p e t r a t e d by the B a a t h i s t s would draw the "wrath o f 45 God and anger t h e M u s l i m n a t i o n . " 1 2 O v e r a l l , t h e I r a q i g o v e r n i n g e l i t e was c o n s i d e r a b l y a larmed by the K h o m e i n i s t s ' c h o l e r i c p r o t e s t a t i o n s , which were c o n s t r u e d as a p o r t e n t o f f u t u r e a g g r e s s i o n . The I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , beyond b r i n g i n g t o power a group o f I s l a m i c i s t s who assumed an i n c r e a s i n g l y t h r e a t e n i n g l e a n i n g toward Baghdad, f u r t h e r s t r e n g t h e n e d the Baath r e g i m e ' s d e f e n s i v e m o t i v a t i o n s f o r a g g r e s s i o n by e f f e c t i n g a r e s u m p t i o n o f the i n s u r g e n c y by e t h n i c K u r d i s h g u e r r i l l a s i n n o r t h e r n I r a q , a development v iewed as c o n s t i t u t i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t t h r e a t t o n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . I r a q ' s K u r d i s h d e n i z e n s had l o n g s t r u g g l e d t o r e a l i z e l i m i t e d autonomy from Baghdad; however, the a r e a which they have t r a d i t i o n a l l y i n h a b i t e d i s r i c h i n p e t r o l e u m and n a t u r a l gas d e p o s i t s a n d , a c c o r d i n g l y , the B a a t h i s t s have been adamant i n i n s i s t i n g t h a t c e n t r a l c o n t r o l over the n o r t h e r n t e r r i t o r y i s v i t a l t o the n a t i o n ' s economy. W i t h t h e breakdown i n o r d e r among I r a n i a n f r o n t i e r guards f o l l o w i n g the Shah ' s d o w n f a l l , thousands o f K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n t s , who had been l i v i n g i n r e f u g e e s e t t l e m e n t s w i t h i n I r a n s i n c e the m i d - 1970s, were a f f o r d e d f r e e r e i g n t o resume i n c u r s i o n s i n t o I r a q . By J u l y o f 1979, r e i n f i l t r a t i o n o f K u r d i s h combatants had i n c r e a s e d t o an a l a r m i n g l e v e l and t h i s development prompted the I r a q i Government t o make r e p e a t e d demands, which were l a r g e l y i g n o r e d , t h a t Teheran i n i t i a t e immediate a c t i o n t o t i g h t e n s e c u r i t y a l o n g the common f r o n t i e r . 46 Beyond a l l o w i n g K u r d i s h g u e r r i l l a s t o conduct c r o s s - b o r d e r r a i d s u n h i n d e r e d , the I r a n i a n c l e r i c a l regime extended d i r e c t f i n a n c i a l and l o g i s t i c a l s u p p o r t t o the i n s u r g e n t s . A number o f I r a q i K u r d i s h groups b e n e f i t t e d from I r a n i a n a i d : the K u r d i s h Democra t i c P a r t y (KDP), a l t e r n a t i v e l y known as the Peshmerga, which was under the command o f I d r i s s and Massoud B a r z a n i , and which had a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f i t s f i v e thousand f i g h t e r s s t a t i o n e d a t K a r a j , a m i l i t a r y compound i n p r o x i m i t y t o T e h e r a n ; the K u r d i s h P a t r i o t i c U n i o n (KPU), commanded by J a l a l T a l a b a n i ; and the K u r d i s h S o c i a l i s t P a r t y (KSP)> which was l e d by R a s o u l M e m e n d e h . 1 3 By June o f 1980, an e s t i m a t e d 100,000 f i r e a r m s had been smuggled i n t o n o r t h e r n I r a q and , by t h i s j u n c t u r e , K u r d i s h combatants o p e r a t i n g from s a n c t u a r i e s on t h e I r a n i a n s i d e o f the b o r d e r were c o n d u c t i n g f r e q u e n t armed f o r a y s . The Baath e l i t e responded t o t h e e s c a l a t i n g v i o l e n c e i n the K u r d i s h r e g i o n by commencing a l a r g e - s c a l e c o u n t e r i n s u r g e n c y d r i v e , which i n c l u d e d bombing s o r t i e s a g a i n s t a number o f n o r t h w e s t e r n I r a n i a n v i l l a g e s b e l i e v e d t o be t r a n s i t p o i n t s f o r K u r d i s h g u e r r i l l a s . The I r a q i a i r a t t a c k s were vehement ly denounced by b o t h l a y and c l e r i c a l a u t h o r i t i e s i n I r a n and c o n t r i b u t e d t o a f u r t h e r e s c a l a t i o n i n i n t e r s t a t e t e n s i o n . By mid-1980 , a number o f r a n k i n g Baath o f f i c i a l s had c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e I r a n i a n c l e r i c s ' d i s p o s i t i o n t o s u p p o r t S h i 1 i t e z e a l o t s and K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n t s w i t h i n I r a q 47 i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y h a r b o r e d d e s i g n s o f f u t u r e a g g r e s s i o n . T h i s c o n v i c t i o n was r e i n f o r c e d by a number o f o v e r t c a l l s made by I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s f o r the I r a q i p o p u l a c e t o depose the Government. On 27 A p r i l , the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s l e a d e r s h i p p u t f o r t h s p u r i o u s r e p o r t s o f a s u c c e s s f u l i n s u r r e c t i o n i n I r a q . A s t a l w a r t K h o m e i n i i t e p u n d i t , F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Sadegh Qotzbadeh, who was i n Damascus a t t h i s t i m e , d e c l a r e d " i t makes me v e r y happy t o announce the news t h a t I have j u s t r e c e i v e d : t h e r e has been a m i l i t a r y coup i n I r a q ; Saddam H u s s e i n and h i s regime can go t o h e l l . " 1 4 Q o t z b a d e h ' s a g g r e s s i v e e n u n c i a t i o n was f o l l o w e d by an open c a l l i n g from Khomeini f o r I r a q ' s armed f o r c e s , the r a n k s o f which c o n s i s t e d p r e d o m i n a t e l y o f S h i a s , t o mount a r e b e l l i o n and depose the B a a t h i s t s . 1 5 O v e r a l l , u n d e r l y i n g the I r a q i e l i t e ' s d e f e n s i v e i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e f o r r e s o r t i n g t o m i l i t a r y f o r c e was a d e s i r e t o s e c u r e c o n t r o l over the f r o n t i e r w i t h I r a n , which was h e l d t o be n e c e s s a r y t o m i t i g a t e the v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f I r a q t o d i r e c t a g g r e s s i o n by the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . The B a a t h i s t s sought t o j u s t i f y t h e i n r o a d a g a i n s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n on d e f e n s i v e grounds by a s s e r t i n g d u r i n g a number o f emergency meet ings o f the U n i t e d N a t i o n ' s S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l t h a t t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y < g o v e r n m e n t had f a i l e d t o a d e q u a t e l y m o n i t o r i t s b o r d e r w i t h I r a q , and t h a t t h i s l a p s e o f f r o n t i e r s e c u r i t y had f a c i l i t a t e d an onse t o f u n r e s t i n the s o u t h e a s t and an o u t b r e a k o f b l o o d y f i g h t i n g i n n o r t h e r n 48 I r a q . On 24 September, two days a f t e r t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f open w a r f a r e , I r a q i d e l e g a t e s t o the U n i t e d N a t i o n s defended Baghdad's d e c i s i o n t o invade I r a n by c h a r g i n g t h a t T e h e r a n ' s " i n d i s c r i m i n a t e a c t i o n s a g a i n s t the i n t e r e s t s o f I r a q , " had n e c e s s i t a t e d a d e f e n s i v e a c t i o n . 1 6 C l e a r l y , the e v i d e n c e p u t forward i n t h i s s e c t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e B a a t h i s t s d i d have a b a s i s f o r c o n c e r n r e g a r d i n g t h e I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , and t h a t t h i s c o n c e r n gave r i s e t o d e f e n s i v e inducements f o r a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . However, as w i l l be demonstrated i n the s u c c e e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n , m o t i v a t i o n s f o r s u r p r i s e a t t a c k a r e seldom o f a s o l e l y d e f e n s i v e n a t u r e . A g g r e s s i v e M o t i v a t i o n s The f i r s t s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r e l u c i d a t e d Baghdad's d e f e n s i v e impetus f o r a t t a c k i n g the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . However, the B a a t h i s t s ' i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e f o r g o i n g t o war w i t h I r a n was not w h o l l y grounded upon d e f e n s i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s ; i n i d e n t i f y i n g the I r a q i e l i t e ' s m o t i v e s f o r a g g r e s s i o n , a c i t i n g o f v a r i o u s venturesome o b j e c t i v e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y those e n t e r t a i n e d by Saddam H u s s e i n , i s o f c e n t r a l i m p o r t a n c e . To Saddam H u s s e i n , who s t r o n g l y emulates Gamal A b d e l N a s s e r , the l a t e c h a r i s m a t i c E g y p t i a n l e a d e r w i d e l y r e v e r e d i n the A r a b w o r l d f o r h i s b r a z e n c h a l l e n g e o f Western c o n t r o l over the v i t a l Suez C a n a l i n 1956, the onset o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n c o n s t i t u t e d an o p p o r t u n i t y t o r e a l i z e a l o n g - s t a n d i n g 49 a m b i t i o n : t o a t t a i n a p o s i t i o n o f l e a d e r s h i p among e a s t e r n A r a b s t a t e s . By 1979, I r a q was i n a s u i t a b l e p o s i t i o n t o assume a g u i d i n g r o l e among the G u l f A r a b n a t i o n s , as w e l l as w i t h i n the A r a b w o r l d a t l a r g e . In a d d i t i o n t o p o s s e s s i n g a s i z a b l e and educated m i d d l e c l a s s , t h e n a t i o n ' s g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t , l a r g e l y due t o s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e s i n p e t r o l e u m p r i c e s , had r i s e n t o an i m p r e s s i v e t h i r t y - o n e b i l l i o n d o l l a r s , and r e a l p e r c a p i t a income had i n c r e a s e d t o 2,450 d o l l a r s p e r annum, one o f the h i g h e s t i n the Near E a s t . 1 7 By and l a r g e , the I r a q i c h i e f b e l i e v e d t h a t h i s hegemonic a s p i r a t i o n s c o u l d be f u r t h e r e d v i s - a - v i s an a c q u i s i t i o n o f the f o l l o w i n g I r a n i a n h e l d t e r r i t o r y : the southwes tern r e g i o n o f K h u z e s t a n ; Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs , t h r e e i s l a n d s s i t u a t e d i n the s t r a t e g i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t S t r a i t s o f Hormuz, which connec t s t h e P e r s i a n G u l f and t h e n o r t h e r n A r a b i a n Sea; and the S h a t t a l - A r a b e s t u a r y , which i s formed by the c o n f l u e n c e o f the T i g r i s and E u p h r a t e s R i v e r s and which empt ies i n t o t h e n o r t h e r n P e r s i a n G u l f . I t was the p o s i t i o n o f Saddam H u s s e i n t h a t c o n t r o l o v e r K h u z e s t a n , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e o i l - r i c h p r o v i n c e s o f I lam and Kermanshah, t h e l o c a t i o n o f a number o f d e v e l o p e d p o r t f a c i l i t i e s f o r t r a n s s h i p p i n g p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , i n c l u d i n g Abadan, Khorramshahr , and B a n d a r - e - S h a h p u r , would g r e a t l y b o l s t e r I r a q ' s economic p o s t u r e . I r a q , i n s t a r k c o n t r a s t t o 50 I r a n , i s i n a g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d i s a d v a n t a g e o u s p o s i t i o n i n t h a t i t has a c o a s t l i n e o f o n l y some f i f t y m i l e s a l o n g the G u l f , and t h i s b r i e f s t r e t c h o f s h o r e l i n e between the Fao P e n i n s u l a and Umm Q a s r , due t o s h a l l o w d e p t h s , i s o f l i t t l e u t i l i t y i n terms o f p o r t f a c i l i t i e s . 1 8 C o n s e q u e n t l y , Baghdad has been l i m i t e d t o r e l y i n g p r i m a r i l y on B a s r a , which i s l o c a t e d some one hundred m i l e s up t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b , as the n a t i o n ' s p r i n c i p a l p o r t . S e c u r i n g an expanded G u l f c o a s t l i n e was v iewed by the I r a q i e l i t e as a way o f d i m i n i s h i n g the n e c e s s i t y o f r e l y i n g on o v e r l a n d p e t r o l e u m c o n d u i t s t h r o u g h S y r i a , Lebanon, and T u r k e y . In t h i s way, the c a p a c i t y t o e x p o r t p e t r o l e u m , the n a t i o n ' s c h i e f source o f revenue , would be l e s s c o n t i n g e n t upon the s t a t e - o f - r e l a t i o n s w i t h the regimes g o v e r n i n g t h e t e r r i t o r y t h r o u g h which t h e o i l was t r a n s s h i p p e d , and l e s s v u l n e r a b l e t o v i c i s s i t u d e s i n p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n t h e h o s t c o u n t r i e s . The o u t b r e a k o f c i v i l war i n Lebanon i n 1976 had n e c e s s i t a t e d a shutdown o f I r a q ' s p i p e l i n e t h r o u g h t h a t c o u n t r y w h i l e , d u r i n g t h e l a t e 1970s, t e n s e r e l a t i o n s w i t h the r i v a l Baath regime i n Damascus r e s u l t e d i n a d i m i n u t i o n o f the f low o f p e t r o l e u m t h r o u g h the I r a q i - S y r i a n c o n d u i t . 1 9 In a d d i t i o n , t h e n o r t h e r n p i p e l i n e t h r o u g h Turkey t o p o r t s on the M e d i t e r r a n e a n was exposed t o sabotage by K u r d i s h s e p a r a t i s t s . O v e r a l l , u n d e r l y i n g the B a a t h i s t s ' e n t e r p r i s i n g inducement s t r u c t u r e f o r l a y i n g s i e g e t o I r a n , was t h e c h i e f d e s i g n o f s e c u r i n g a s t r o n g c a p a c i t y t o e x p o r t p e t r o l e u m . The r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h i s o b j e c t i v e was deemed t o be e s s e n t i a l i f I r a q was t o g a i n a p o s i t i o n o f r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s h i p , and Baghdad b e l i e v e d t h a t e s t a b l i s h i n g domin ion o v e r K h u z e s t a n ' s l e n g t h y c o a s t l i n e t h r o u g h a s u r p r i s e m i l i t a r y i n r o a d would ne t the n a t i o n such a d e s i r e d c a p a b i l i t y . I n i t i a l l y , the B a a t h i s t s a t tempted t o use p a c i f i c means t o compel the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c t o cede c o n t r o l o v e r the c o v e t e d t e r r i t o r i e s . Wi th r e g a r d t o Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs , Saddam H u s s e i n made wide c a p i t a l o f t h e f a c t t h a t the Shah had i l l e g a l l y annexed the i s l a n d s , which had been under the c o n t r o l o f the U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s (UAE) , i n 1971 t h r o u g h an armed o c c u p a t i o n . A n d , t h e I r a q i l e a d e r c a l l e d on Teheran t o demonstrate the s i n c e r i t y o f i t s p l e d g e t o j e t t i s o n the a g g r e s s i v e f o r e i g n p o l i c y f o l l o w e d by the deposed P a h l a v i a d m i n i s t r a t i o n by r e l i n q u i s h i n g r u l e over the i s l a n d s t o the U A E . By and l a r g e , t h e a l l u r e o f e s t a b l i s h i n g mastery over the i s l a n d s was p r e d i c a t e d on t h e i r s t r a t e g i c and economic v a l u e ; t o the B a a t h i s t s , t h e i s l a n d s r e p r e s e n t e d an e x c e l l e n t base from which t o c o n t r o l the h i g h volume o f commerc ia l s h i p p i n g t r a f f i c t h r o u g h Hormuz and t o conduct e x p l o r a t i o n and d r i l l i n g f o r p e t r o l e u m d e p o s i t s i n the n o r t h e r n A r a b i a n Sea . Baghdad b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e d e s i g n o f s e c u r i n g I r a q i sway o v e r Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs would be 52 f u r t h e r advanced toward f r u i t i o n i f one o f the c o n s e r v a t i v e l i t t o r a l n a t i o n s , which the B a a t h i s t s l o o k e d upon as r e l a t i v e l y weak and easy t o i n f l u e n c e , e x e r c i s e d d e t e r m i n a t i o n o v e r the d i s p u t e d i s l a n d s . In l i n e w i t h t h i s r e a s o n i n g , the I r a q i Government proposed t o I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s t h a t a P a l e s t i n i a n g r o u p , namely the p r i n c i p a l A l - F a t a h f a c t i o n headed by Y a s i r A r a f a t , assume temporary c o n t r o l o v e r the i s l a n d s as a p r e l u d e t o a r e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f governance by t h e U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s . A t f i r s t , t h e r e were some i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t the r e v o l u t i o n a r y a u t h o r i t i e s might accede t o Baghdad's o v e r t u r e s r e g a r d i n g t h e i s l a n d s . However, t h e r e soon p r o v e d t o be l i t t l e a c t u a l enthus iasm i n Qom toward s u r r e n d e r i n g s t r a t e g i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t t e r r i t o r y . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f a s t r o n g , p r o - P a l e s t i n i a n l e a n i n g , the i d e a o f a s s i g n i n g A r a f a t a p i v o t a l r o l e as a t r a n s i t i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t o r over the i s l a n d s was r e j e c t e d by the c l e r i c a l l e a d e r s h i p on the grounds t h a t c o n t r o l o v e r the t e r r i t o r y by the U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s , whose c o n s e r v a t i v e emirs m a i n t a i n e d s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s w i t h the West, would c o n s t i t u t e a p o t e n t i a l t h r e a t t o I r a n ' s a b i l i t y t o e x p o r t o i l . In a d d i t i o n , a number o f p r o - K h o m e i n i o f f i c i a l s , p r i n c i p a l l y Sadegh Qotzbadeh , a t t empted t o defend the c l e r i c s • d e c i s i o n t o r e t a i n dominion o v e r Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs t h r o u g h a m a r s h a l l i n g o f p a n - I s l a m i c r h e t o r i c ; an o f t e n r e p e a t e d a s s e r t i o n was t h a t the t h r e e i s l a n d s were " n e i t h e r I r a n i a n n o r A r a b , b u t i t i s f o r I r a n a u n i v e r s a l u n i f i c a t i o n o f the I s l a m i c w o r l d and t h a t e v e r y p a r t o f I s l a m i c l a n d be longs t o a l l M u s l i m s , and t h a t t h e l a n d o f I s l a m b e l o n g s t o A l l a h . " 2 0 M o r e o v e r , t h e K h o m e i n i s t s f u r t h e r demonstrated t h e i r a v e r s i o n toward I r a q ' s e f f o r t s t o wres t c o n t r o l o v e r the i s l a n d s from I r a n on 13 June 1979, when Teheran R a d i o c a r r i e d an A r a b i c b r o a d c a s t i n which Baghdad was admonished a g a i n s t " p l a y i n g w i t h f i r e , " and which a d v i s e d the B a a t h i s t s t h a t i t would be more p o l i t i c t o abandon v i s i o n s o f t e r r i t o r i a l aggrandizement and t o c o n c e n t r a t e on d i m i n i s h i n g the " i n j u s t i c e and d i s c r i m i n a t i o n i t i s p r a c t i c i n g w i t h i n I r a q . " 2 1 Such r e b u f f s were no t w e l l r e c e i v e d i n Baghdad. When e f f o r t s t o persuade Teheran t o r e l i n q u i s h Abu Musa and t h e G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs , v i s - a - v i s a n o n b e l l i g e r e n t avenue, proved u n f r u i t f u l , t h e B a a t h i s t s assumed a more a g g r e s s i v e , i n s i s t e n t a p p r o a c h , c h a r g i n g t h a t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s r e f u s a l t o p a r t w i t h the i s l a n d s c o n s t i t u t e d c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e t h a t the r e v o l u t i o n a r y r e g i m e ' s a s s e r t i o n t h a t the hegemonic a c t i o n s o f the Shah were b e i n g abandoned was mere ly a r h e t o r i c a l f a c a d e . By e a r l y December o f 1979, t h e I r a q i regime was g i v i n g s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o a t t e m p t i n g t o f o r c i b l y s e i z e t h e i s l a n d s . However, s e c r e c y s u r r o u n d i n g the p l a n n i n g o f the f o r c e d a n n e x a t i o n was compromised, prompt ing Y a s i r A r a f a t t o r u s h t o the I r a q i c a p i t a l i n a s u c c e s s f u l b i d t o d i s s u a d e Saddam 54 H u s s e i n from u n d e r t a k i n g t h e e n v i s i o n e d a t t a c k . I r a q a t tempted a f i n a l e f f o r t t o r e a l i z e i t s e n t e r p r i s i n g d e s i g n s t h r o u g h d i p l o m a t i c c h a n n e l s i n e a r l y A p r i l o f 1980, when U n i t e d N a t i o n ' s S e c r e t a r y - G e n e r a l K u r t Waldheim was i m p l o r e d t o c a l l f o r an immediate end o f the I r a n i a n o c c u p a t i o n . However, t h i s i n i t i a t i v e , s i m i l a r t o s c o r e s o f p r e v i o u s ones , f a i l e d t o e l i c i t a p o s i t i v e response from t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . From t h i s j u n c t u r e onward, Baghdad's e f f o r t s t o e f f e c t an I r a n i a n w i t h d r a w a l from the i s l a n d s became i n c r e a s i n g l y b e l l i c o s e . The two f e u d i n g n a t i o n s moved c l o s e r t o the b r i n k o f open w a r f a r e on 6 A p r i l , when t h e B a a t h i s t s demanded t h a t a l l I r a n i a n f o r c e s be withdrawn from Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs w i t h i n t w e n t y - f o u r h o u r s . The I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s re sponse t o t h e I r a q i a r r o g a t i o n , which s t i r r e d i n c r e d u l i t y i n Qom and T e h e r a n , was put f o r t h by P r e s i d e n t A l b o h a s s a n B a n i - S a d r , who announced t h a t , as a means o f d e m o n s t r a t i n g I r a n i a n r e s o l v e t o p r e s e r v e s u z e r a i n t y over the i s l a n d s , the r e v o l u t i o n a r y army and navy would soon conduct c o o r d i n a t e d e x e r c i s e s i n t h e a r e a . 2 2 O v e r a l l , e s t a b l i s h i n g c o n t r o l o v e r the t h r e e i s l a n d s was one o f t h e more d i s c e r n i b l e e n t e r p r i s i n g o b j e c t i v e s t h a t a c t u a t e d the I r a q i i n c u r s i o n . Baghdad's campaign t o a c h i e v e ascendancy o v e r the S h a t t a l - A r a b was conducted i n a manner analogous t o the b i d t o a c q u i r e Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs: a 55 r e l i a n c e upon b l o o d l e s s methods a t the o u t s e t g r a d u a l l y gave way t o b e l l i g e r e n c e . In O c t o b e r o f 1979, H u s s e i n M u s l i m H as s an , t h e Baath r e g i m e ' s c h i e f envoy t o Lebanon, s e r v e d t o r e i n v i g o r a t e t h e l o n g - s t a n d i n g i n t e r s t a t e q u a r r e l o v e r the S h a t t a l - A r a b by m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t Baghdad was unhappy w i t h the s t a t u s quo r e g a r d i n g c o n t r o l over n a v i g a t i o n a l o n g the waterway. The immediate aim o f the B a a t h i s t s was t o j e t t i s o n the 1975 A l g i e r s A c c o r d , which t h e y i n s i s t e d had been c o n c l u d e d under p r e s s u r e e x e r t e d by the Shah, and which was u n b a l a n c e d i n t h a t i t a f f o r d e d I r a n a f a v o r a b l e p o s i t i o n r e g a r d i n g the d e l i n e a t i o n o f the e s t u a r y . A t t h i s p o i n t , T a r i q A z i z f o r m a l l y r e q u e s t e d the h o l d i n g o f a new round o f d i r e c t b i l a t e r a l n e g o t i a t i o n s i n o r d e r t o hammer out a more e q u i t a b l e covenant . However, t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime d e c l i n e d t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n a p a r l e y r e g a r d i n g the S h a t t a l - A r a b , and the i n t r a n s i g e n t r e f u s a l o f I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s t o engage i n d ip lomacy s e r v e d t o r a p i d l y exhaust the p a t i e n c e o f Saddam H u s s e i n , who, by mid-1980 , was becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y forward i n h i s i m p o s i t i o n s , which i n c l u d e d an e x t e n s i o n by the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f u n c o n d i t i o n a l " r e c o g n i t i o n " o f I r a q i mastery o v e r t h e e n t i r e l e n g t h o f the c o n t e s t e d w a t e r w a y . 2 3 E v i d e n c e o f Baghdad's growing i m p a t i e n c e came i n e a r l y September, when I r a q i t r o o p s moved t o f o r c i b l y annex a t h r e e - h u n d r e d - s q u a r e - k i l o m e t e r e n c l a v e o f I r a n i a n - h e l d t e r r i t o r y a l o n g the c e n t r a l s e c t o r o f the f r o n t i e r i n 56 p r o x i m i t y t o Q a s r - e - S h i r i n , which Baghdad c h a r g e d was t o have been ceded t o I r a q i n accordance w i t h t h e A l g i e r s agreement . The I r a q i a g g r e s s i o n was met w i t h s t r o n g p r o t e s t from I r a n i a n c l e r i c a l and s e c u l a r a u t h o r i t i e s . F o r example, on 16 September, Sadegh Qotzbadeh m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e A l g i e r s covenant c o n t a i n e d no p r o v i s i o n s r e l a t i n g t o the r e t u r n o f t e r r i t o r y and t h a t , a c c o r d i n g l y , Baghdad's charges o f I r a n i a n noncompl iance w i t h t r e a t y o b l i g a t i o n s were b a s e l e s s . 2 4 On t h e f o l l o w i n g day , 17 September, f i v e days p r i o r t o the i n i t i a t i o n o f the i n v a s i o n , the Baath regime announced t h a t I r a q was f o r g o i n g compl iance w i t h the A l g i e r s t r e a t y and m a i n t a i n e d t h a t "the S h a t t a l - A r a b i s t o t a l l y I r a q i and t o t a l l y A r a b . " 2 5 In a d d i t i o n , Baghdad d e c l a r e d t h a t a l l commerc ia l v e s s e l s t r a v e r s i n g the e s t u a r y would now be r e q u i r e d t o d i s p l a y the I r a q i f l a g . 2 6 S h o r t l y a f t e r moving t o occupy the d i s p u t e d t e r r i t o r y and u n i l a t e r a l l y r e j e c t i n g the A l g i e r s agreement, S a i d B a f i , the charge d ' a f f a i r e s o f the I r a q i m i s s i o n a t the U n i t e d N a t i o n s , i n an e f f o r t t o e s t a b l i s h a j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e p r o v o c a t i v e a c t i o n s , conveyed a l e t t e r t o the S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l from F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Saadoun Hammadi, i n which i t was h e l d : The I r a q i Government now f i n d s i t s e l f o b l i g e d t o e x e r c i s e i t s l e g i t i m a t e r i g h t t o s e l f - d e f e n s e i n s o v e r e i g n t y and t o r e c o v e r i t s t e r r i t o r i e s by f o r c e , c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t t h e I r a n i a n Government has b a r r e d the way t o a l l l e g a l l y r e c o g n i z e d ways t o r e s o l v e the i s s u e s emanat ing from i t s o b l i g a t i o n s . 2 ' 57 O v e r a l l , by mid-1980 , the I r a q i g o v e r n i n g e l i t e had a r r i v e d a t t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t d e t e r m i n a t i o n o v e r t h e d i s p u t e d t e r r i t o r i e s c o u l d not be g a i n e d t h r o u g h p a c i f i c means and c o g n i z a n c e o f t h i s a c t u a l i t y , a l o n g w i t h t h e menace p o r t e n d e d by the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n , engendered a s t r o n g m o t i v a t i o n f o r l a u n c h i n g a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . I r a q ' s P r o p e n s i t y t o R e s o r t t o F o r c e A g a i n s t I r a n Due t o I d e o l o g i c a l and E t h n i c - C u l t u r a l D i s p a r i t y There i s much more t o an a g g r e s s o r n a t i o n ' s m o t i v a t i o n s f o r a t t e m p t i n g a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e t h a n d e f e n s i v e and o f f e n s i v e o b j e c t i v e s . E x i s t i n g p r e d i l e c t i o n s f o r a g g r e s s i o n , which can be f o s t e r e d by a number o f f a c t o r s , can s t r e n g t h e n an i m p u l s i o n f o r a sudden a t t a c k . I n i l l u m i n a t i n g the p r e d i s p o s i t i o n o f a g o v e r n i n g e l i t e t o seek a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , an a n a l y s i s o f the d i v e r g e n c e between t h e i d e o l o g i c a l and e t h n i c - c u l t u r a l i m p e r a t i v e s espoused by the p r o t a g o n i s t and those championed by the t a r g e t s t a t e i s o f s i g n i f i c a n t i m p o r t . The wide i d e o l o g i c a l and c u l t u r a l g u l f s e p a r a t i n g t h e t e m p o r a l - o r i e n t e d Baath regime and the f u n d a m e n t a l i s t S h i ' i t e e l i t e t h a t came t o the f o r e i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , c o n s t i t u t e d a p r i n c i p a l d e t e r m i n a n t u n d e r l y i n g Baghdad's d e c i s i o n t o r e s o r t t o f o r c e . The B a a t h i s t s ' a n i m o s i t y toward the K h o m e i n i s t s can be p a r t i a l l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the v a r i a n c e between A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m and s o c i a l i s m , the two c a r d i n a l c o n c e p t s which c o n s t i t u t e the f o u n d a t i o n o f Baath i d e o l o g y 58 and p a n - I s l a m i c t r a d i t i o n a l i s m , t h e paramount i d e o l o g i c a l t e n e t championed by the I r a n i a n c h u r c h m e n . 2 8 The i n c e p t i o n o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n and t h e a t t e n d a n t t o p p l i n g o f the "Peacock Throne" e f f e c t e d a p r o f o u n d a l t e r a t i o n o f t h e s t a t e ' s p o l i t i c a l atmosphere , r e s u l t i n g i n t h e emergence o f a new r u l i n g e l i t e which adhered t o an i d e o l o g i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n v a r y i n g c o n s i d e r a b l y from t h a t espoused by the deposed Shah. I r a n s h i f t e d from a s t a t e e m p h a s i z i n g n a t i o n a l i s m t o one s t r e s s i n g I s l a m ; the i d e o l o g y espoused by Khomeini and o t h e r l e a d i n g c l e r i c s , i n c l u d i n g A y a t o l l a h Muhammad-Javad Bahonar, A y a t o l l a h Hasan Q o m i - T a b a t a b a i , and A y a t o l l a h Sadeq R u h a n i , was based on I t h n a a s h a r i S h i a I s l a m . The concept o f the "Imamate" c o n s t i t u t e s a n o t a b l e a s p e c t o f t h i s p u r i t a n i c a l s e c t , which o r i g i n a t e d i n n o r t h e r n I n d i a . Devout f o l l o w e r s o f or thodox S h i ' i s m b e l i e v e t h a t no t r u l y l e g i t i m a t e r u l e can be r e a l i z e d u n t i l the reappearance o f Mohammad a l - M a h d i s , the " T w e l f t h Imam" ( s u c c e s s o r t o t h e Prophet Mohammad and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f God on e a r t h ) , who e x p i r e d i n 847 A . D . , and who i s due t o r e t u r n a t the end o f t i m e . 2 9 An i m p o r t a n t c o r o l l a r y t o t h e b e l i e f i n the Imamate i s the i d e a o f v e l a y a t - e f a q i h [governance by supreme c l e r i c ] , which v e s t s i n K h o m e i n i , as t h e n a t i o n ' s p r e m i e r churchman, t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f g u i d i n g the I s l a m i c community u n t i l the r e t u r n o f Mohammad a l - M a h d i s . 3 0 59 I n a t t endance w i t h t h i s b e l i e f i n the s u b l i m e n a t u r e o f c l e r i c a l r u l e , the I s l a m i c t r a d i t i o n a l i s t s aimed a t a b r o g a t i n g t h e d i v i s i o n between s e c u l a r and m i n i s t e r i a l r e a l m s . To Khomeini and h i s z e a l o u s s u p p o r t e r s , a s e p a r a t i o n o f c h u r c h and s t a t e was i n i m i c a l t o fundamental S h i ' i t e canon . In one o f h i s major works , " I s l a m i c Government ," Khomeini h e l d t h a t o n l y the " i r r e l i g i o u s " and " i m p e r i a l i s t s " u t i l i z e the "s logan o f the s e p a r a t i o n o f r e l i g i o n and p o l i t i c s " as a means o f p r e c l u d i n g t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a t r u l y e q u i t a b l e s o c i e t y p r e d i c a t e d on I s l a m . 3 1 The K h o m e i n i i t e reg ime , i n an e f f o r t t o l e n d l e g i t i m a c y t o the d e s i g n o f a b o l i s h i n g the p a r t i t i o n o f s o c i e t y i n t o w o r l d l y and s p i r i t u a l domains , f r e q u e n t l y a s s e r t e d t h a t t h e Prophet Mohammad had been b o t h t h e e c c l e s i a s t i c a l l e a d e r and the head j u r i s t i n the c i t y o f M e d i n a . 3 2 O v e r a l l , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note t h a t the K h o m e i n i s t s ' r e j e c t i o n o f s e c u l a r forms o f government was u n e q u i v o c a l ; d i s d a i n f o r l a y r u l e l a r g e l y emanated from the unwaver ing b e l i e f t h a t God r e p r e s e n t e d t h e o n l y t r u e s o u r c e o f s o v e r e i g n t y . The I r a q i e l i t e ' s p o s i t i o n r e g a r d i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c h u r c h and s t a t e was w h o l l y c o n t r a r y t o t h a t h e l d by the K h o m e i n i s t s . The B a a t h i s t s were a v e r s e t o c l e r i c a l i s m and had l o n g endeavored t o s e p a r a t e I s l am and t h e c a l l i n g f o r t h o f i n c o r p o r e a l a u t h o r i t y from I r a q ' s p o l i t i c a l sys tem; a c c o r d i n g l y , the s p e c t e r o f a b u r g e o n i n g o f t r a d i t i o n a l i s t I s l a m i c sent iment among the S h i ' i t e m a j o r i t y i n s o u t h e a s t e r n I r a q , m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f which had o c c a s i o n a l l y t r a n s p i r e d s i n c e the onset o f Baath r u l e , was l o o k e d upon i n w h o l l y n e g a t i v e t e r m s . 3 3 The B a a t h i s t s ' a p p r e h e n s i o n r e g a r d i n g the p o l i t i c a l upheava l i n I r a n stemmed from a r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t the Shah ' s d o w n f a l l r e p r e s e n t e d t h e f i r s t t i m e w i t h i n t h e Near E a s t t h a t a s e c u l a r regime had been t o p p l e d by a p o p u l a r r e v o l u t i o n a r y movement w i t h a s t r o n g u n d e r c u r r e n t o f I s l a m i c fundamenta l i sm. Baghdad f e a r e d t h a t t h e p a n - I s l a m i c i d e a l s propounded by the K h o m e i n i s t s would e f f e c t a d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f p u r i t a n i c a l S h i ' i t e z e a l , and t h a t such a development would i n c i t e c o n f e s s i o n a l s t r i f e between the r u l i n g S u n n i m i n o r i t y and the n a t i o n ' s S h i a s . T r a d i t i o n a l l y , a l t h o u g h S h i a s c o n s t i t u t e a s l i g h t m a j o r i t y o f t h e I r a q i p o p u l a c e — a p p r o x i m a t e l y f i f t y - f i v e p e r c e n t — t h e y have been r e l e g a t e d t o the p e r i p h e r y o f the n a t i o n ' s economic and p o l i t i c a l a f f a i r s by t h e dominant S u n n i M u s l i m m i n o r i t y . The B a a t h i s t s were bent on m a i n t a i n i n g t h i s unequal r e l a t i o n s h i p and had l o n g endeavored t o draw the a t t e n t i o n o f the S h i a masses away from the imbalance between Sunni and S h i • i t e adherent s w i t h i n the upper eche lons o f the Government and the n a t i o n ' s m i l i t a r y command by p l a c i n g a heavy emphasis upon A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m , 3 4 and by i n t e n t i o n a l l y downplay ing t h e importance o f r e l i g i o n . In a d d i t i o n , i n terms o f e x t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l a s p i r a t i o n s , a b o l s t e r i n g o f A r a b u n i t y has l o n g been a t the apex o f the B a a t h i s t s ' agenda. More p r e c i s e l y , s i n c e t h e i n c e p t i o n o f Baath r u l e i n 1968, the d i r e c t i o n o f I r a q i f o r e i g n p o l i c y has been p r e d i c a t e d on t h e p r i n c i p a l end o f c o n s o l i d a t i n g s o l i d a r i t y among A r a b n a t i o n s , which i s i n l i n e w i t h t h e u l t i m a t e v i s i o n o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a s i n g l e , p a n - A r a b s t a t e w i t h a p o l i t i c a l system grounded on s o c i a l i s m . A number o f l a y and e c c l e s i a s t i c a l a u t h o r i t i e s w i t h i n t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c s e r v e d t o f u r t h e r r e i n f o r c e the p r e d i s p o s i t i o n o f the Baath e l i t e t o engage i n w a r f a r e by denounc ing t h e concept o f A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m as an o b s t r u c t i o n t o the r e a l i z a t i o n o f a p a n - I s l a m i c s t a t e . 3 5 On one o c c a s i o n , I b r a h i m Y a z d i , the I r a n i a n f o r e i g n m i n i s t e r , remarked t h a t the r e v o l u t i o n a r y i d e o l o g y espoused by the c l e r i c a l l e a d e r s h i p r e p r e s e n t e d a v i a b l e , a l t e r n a t i v e parad igm t o A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m . 3 6 In a d d i t i o n , Khomeini emerged as an outspoken c r i t i c o f t h e I r a q i p o l i t i c a l sys tem; t o K h o m e i n i , B a a t h i s t governance , w i t h i t s emphasis on p r e s e r v i n g a r i g i d d i v i s i o n between t e m p o r a l and p a s t o r a l s p h e r e s , was anathema t o the b a s i c t e n e t s o f the Koran and was, t h e r e f o r e , d e v o i d o f l e g i t i m a c y . M o r e o v e r , Khomeini b e l i e v e d t h a t I s l a m i c t r a d i t i o n a l i s m would r a p i d l y s p r e a d t h r o u g h o u t t h e Near E a s t , t h e r e b y o b v i a t i n g t h e a p p e a l o f A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m . O v e r a l l , the I r a n i a n c l e r i c ' s impugning o f A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m engendered c o n s i d e r a b l e resentment i n 62 Baghdad; Saddam Hussein p u b l i c l y charged t h a t the s t r a i n i n g of I r a q i - I r a n i a n r e l a t i o n s had p a r t i a l l y emanated from the l a t t e r * s d i s p a r a g i n g of Arab n a t i o n a l i s m d u r i n g an address d e l i v e r e d on 4 November 1980: We are I r a q i s , and we are p a r t of the Arab n a t i o n . . . . . We w i l l not accept anybody coming everyday w i t h a new path t h a t aims a t d i v i d i n g I r a q and d i v i d i n g the Arab n a t i o n . 3 7 Beyond the d ivergence i n p o l i t i c a l v a l u e s , the B a a t h i s t s ' p r e d i s p o s i t i o n f o r going t o war w i t h I r a n was a l s o p a r t l y shaped by e t h n o - c u l t u r a l d i s p a r i t y . I r a n i a n c l a i m s o f r a c i a l s u p e r i o r i t y have l o n g been a source of resentment among I r a q i s , as w e l l as o t h e r e a s t e r n Arabs, and the B a a t h i s t s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h i s i n d i g n a t i o n , although a t t h a t j u n c t u r e i t was l a r g e l y dormant, c o u l d e a s i l y be r e k i n d l e d and used t o whip up domestic o p p o s i t i o n toward the Khomeinists. The I r a q i e l i t e b e l i e v e d t h a t an i n t e r j e c t i o n of e t h n i c and c u l t u r a l v a r i a b l e s i n t o the i m b r o g l i o between Baghdad and Teheran would be of f u r t h e r u t i l i t y i n t h a t i t would serve t o draw the a t t e n t i o n of the I r a q i populace away from the r e a l source of a v e r s i o n toward the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , which was l a r g e l y the r a d i c a l I s l a m i c g o a l s pursued by the c l e r i c a l l e a d e r s h i p . Toward t h i s end, r a n k i n g Baath o f f i c i a l s began t o f r e q u e n t l y a l l u d e t o the c u l t u r a l and S e m i t i c - A r y a n e t h n i c d i v i s i o n s s e p a r a t i n g Arabs and P e r s i a n s . By and l a r g e , i n order t o h e i g h t e n domestic support f o r the planned i n r o a d a g a i n s t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , Baghdad s t r i v e d t o f o s t e r an image among I r a q i s o f the h e i g h t e n i n g a n i m o s i t y between I r a q and I r a n as c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e l a t e s t o u t b r e a k o f the m i l l e n n i a l e t h n i c s t r i f e , which commenced i n t h e seventh c e n t u r y , when marauding A r a b f o r c e s i n t r o d u c e d I s lam i n t o the r e g i o n t o the e a s t o f the Zagros M o u n t a i n s , which now encompasse modern I r a n . 3 8 In f u r t h e r consonance w i t h the o b j e c t i v e s o f p o r t r a y i n g the s t r a i n i n g o f I r a q i - I r a n i a n r e l a t i o n s as emerging from e t h n i c - c u l t u r a l v a r i a n c e , and o f d i m i n i s h i n g p u b l i c a t t e n t i o n toward the extreme d i v e r g e n c e i n the p o s i t i o n s s u b s c r i b e d t o by the r e s p e c t i v e g o v e r n i n g e l i t e s r e g a r d i n g t h e p r o p e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between c h u r c h and s t a t e , the B a a t h i s t s sought t o genera te an image o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s l e a d e r s as a d h e r i n g t o a r a c i s t and c h a u v i n i s t i c b e a r i n g and t o c o n v i n c e the I r a q i p e o p l e t h a t A r a b s were s u p e r i o r t o I r a n i a n s i n t h a t the former had p l a y e d a f a r more i m p o r t a n t h i s t o r i c a l r o l e i n the development o f I s l a m . The impetus b e h i n d the e f f o r t s t o arouse a n t i - I r a n i a n s en t iment l a r g e l y stemmed from t h e I r a q i Government 's c o g n i z a n c e t h a t i t c o u l d no t a f f o r d t o d e p i c t t h e c o n f l i c t w i t h I r a n as a s e c u l a r - c l e r i c a l c l a s h , f o r such an image would have f o s t e r e d d i s a f f e c t i o n toward Baath governance among I r a q ' s S h i a s . To f o r e s t a l l such a deve lopment , t h e Baath e l i t e endeavored t o propagate a p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e b r a n d o f I s l a m championed by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s as b e i n g h e r e t i c a l . F o r example, i n announcing t h e s e v e r i n g o f d i p l o m a t i c t i e s w i t h t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , Saddam H u s s e i n 64 c h a r g e d t h a t t h e K h o m e i n i i t e regime was " n o n - I s l a m i c , 1 1 and t h a t t h e "Koran was w r i t t e n i n A r a b i c and God d e s t i n e d the A r a b s [not t h e I r a n i a n s ] t o p l a y a vanguard r o l e i n I s l a m . " 3 9 To r e i n f o r c e the image o f the r e v o l u t i o n a r y c l e r i c a l regime as one p u r s u i n g ends p r e d i c a t e d on a r a c i s t o r i e n t a t i o n , Baghdad extended i n v i t a t i o n s t o l e a d e r s o f v a r i o u s I r a n i a n e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s t o a t t e n d a r a l l y i n June o f 1979, d u r i n g which they i l l u m i n a t e d t h e p l i g h t o f t h e i r p e o p l e under the governance o f the K h o m e i n i s t s . In a d d i t i o n , i n announcing h i s d e c i s i o n t o suspend compl iance w i t h the A l g i e r s t r e a t y , Saddam H u s s e i n a g a i n a l l u d e d t o the c l e r i c a l e l i t e ' s " b i g o t e d p e n c h a n t , " h o l d i n g t h a t t h e K h o m e i n i s t s were mere ly u s i n g an " i n v o c a t i o n o f r e l i g i o n as a mask t o c o v e r b u r i e d resentment f o r the A r a b s . " 4 0 M o r e o v e r , s h o r t l y a f t e r l a u n c h i n g the i n c u r s i o n , which was d e s i g n a t e d by I r a q i o f f i c i a l s as "Saddam's Q a d i s s i y a , " an a l l u s i o n t o the 637 A . D . m i l i t a r y c o n f r o n t a t i o n i n which an A r a b army r o u t e d the S a s s a n i a n P e r s i a n s , t h e I r a q i c h i e f d e l i v e r e d an e m o t i o n a l speech , r i f e w i t h a n t i - I r a n i a n i n v e c t i v e , i n which i t was m a i n t a i n e d t h a t f o r c e n t u r i e s , w h i l e A r a b s had s t r u g g l e d t o improve the q u a l i t y o f l i f e w i t h i n t h e Near E a s t t hrough s c i e n t i f i c and c u l t u r a l advancement, the t r u c u l e n t P e r s i a n s , who had t r a d i t i o n a l l y a c t e d as " i n v a d e r s " and " a g g r e s s o r s , " c o n s i s t e n t l y s t y m i e d such p r o g r e s s . 4 1 The B a a t h i s t s ' e f f o r t s i n t h i s r e s p e c t were l a r g e l y s u c c e s s f u l , f o r by September o f 1980, t h e p u b l i c mood i n I r a q was d i s c e r n i b l y a n t i - I r a n i a n . I n sum, the B a a t h i s t s ' r e a c t i o n t o t h e i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t a f f i n i t y f o r t r a d i t i o n a l i s t I s l am was on t h e r i s e i n t h e S h i ' i t e q u a r t e r s o f s o u t h e a s t e r n I r a q , which was d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , can be a s c r i b e d t o a s t r u c t u r a l - f u n c t i o n a l i s t impetus ; more p r e c i s e l y , a d e s i r e t o m a i n t a i n i n t e r n a l o r d e r 4 2 w h i c h , i n s p e c i f i c t erms , e n t a i l e d a v o i d i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n c o n f e s s i o n a l d i sagreement between the r u l i n g m i n o r i t y o f S u n n i Mus l ims and the m a j o r i t y S h i a s . O v e r a l l , t h e r e was a c l e a r nexus between Baghdad's i d e o l o g i c a l and e t h n i c - c u l t u r a l p r e d i s p o s i t i o n f o r a g g r e s s i o n a g a i n s t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c and t h e p e r c e i v e d domes t i c d e s t a b i l i z a t i o n p o r t e n d e d by the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n . C o n c l u s i o n In r e c a p i t u l a t i n g the main f e a t u r e s o f Baghdad's i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e i d e n t i f i e d i n the p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s , one o f the more m a n i f e s t and t h e o r e t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t i n f e r e n c e s t h a t can be p o s i t e d i s t h a t the B a a t h i s t s were d r i v e n t o at tempt t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n by b o t h d e f e n s i v e and e n t e r p r i s i n g inducements . In more s p e c i f i c t e r m s , the I r a q i e l i t e ' s m o t i v a t i o n s f o r mount ing an i n c u r s i o n i n t o I r a n encompassed a p r o t e c t i v e impul se t o ward o f f the K h o m e i n i s t s ' e f f o r t s t o i n c i t e S h i ' i t e a s p i r a t i o n s f o r a more e q u i t a b l e s h a r e o f t h e 66 n a t i o n ' s p o l i t i c a l power equation, as w e l l as the K u r d i s h m i n o r i t y ' s d e s i r e t o r e a l i z e r e g i o n a l s e l f - g o v e r n a n c e ; and, an adventurous ambition, which l a r g e l y stemmed from Saddam Hussein's g e o p o l i t i c a l a s p i r a t i o n s , t o g a i n c o n t r o l o f e c o n o m i c a l l y important s e c t i o n s of I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y . In terms of d e f e n s i v e a c t u a t i o n s , the Baath e l i t e l o oked upon the p o t e n t i a l of a major f l a r e - u p of the K u r d i s h i nsurgency as a f a r more s e r i o u s and immediate t h r e a t t o the e x i s t i n g o r d e r than t h a t r e p r e s e n t e d by a h e i g h t e n i n g o f S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s m . The l e g i t i m a c y of Baath r u l e i s l a r g e l y grounded on the a b i l i t y t o a f f o r d the n a t i o n ' s denizens a wide a r r a y o f economic s e r v i c e s and goods, which i s made p o s s i b l e by revenue generated by petroleum s a l e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s e f f o r t s t o b o l s t e r the K u r d i s h g u e r r i l l a s , who aimed a t e s t a b l i s h i n g l i m i t e d autonomy over the n o r t h e r n r e g i o n of the country, i n c l u d i n g the v i t a l Kirkuk-Mosul o i l f i e l d s , was c o n s t r u e d by the Baath e l i t e as a d i r e c t c h a l l e n g e t o t h e i r governance, and throughout t h e i r tenure, the B a a t h i s t s have demonstrated l i t t l e d i s i n c l i n a t i o n t o use f o r c e t o p r e s e r v e the p o l i t i c a l s t a t u s quo i n I r a q . Beyond c o u n t e r i n g the t h r e a t s emanating from the Khomeinists' r e a c t i o n a r y , e x p a n s i o n i s t agenda, Baghdad's d e c i s i o n t o stage an i n v a s i o n can be a t t r i b u t e d t o a d e s i r e t o advance I r a q ' s g e o p o l i t i c a l posture, an end which the B a a t h i s t s b e l i e v e d c o u l d be g r e a t l y f u r t h e r e d by d e p r i v i n g 67 I r a n o f Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs, the K h u z e s t a n i o i l f i e l d s and c o a s t , as w e l l as c o n t r o l over the S h a t t a l - A r a b . The paramount impetus behind Baghdad's d e s i r e t o a c q u i r e t r a c t s of e c o n o m i c a l l y important t e r r i t o r y was the i n t e n s e l o n g i n g o f Saddam Hussein t o assume a hegemonic r o l e i n the G u l f . O v e r a l l , a s u b s t a n t i a l degree o f a c c o u n t a b i l i t y f o r the outbreak of the war can be a s c r i b e d t o the I r a q i l e a d e r ' s v a i n g l o r i o u s ambitions. An a d d i t i o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n which stems from the f o r e g o i n g examination and which i n f l u e n c e d the B a a t h i s t s ' s e t o f inducements was the p r e d i l e c t i o n f o r warfare engendered by p o l i t i c a l and e t h n i c - c u l t u r a l v a l u e s . Of utmost importance, i n terms of e x p l a i n i n g Baghdad's p r o p e n s i t y t o i n i t i a t e a war w i t h r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , was the v a r i a n c e i n e l i t e i d e o l o g i c a l i m p e r a t i v e s . In s h o r t , p r o c e e d i n g from the f a c t t h a t , s i n c e i t s i n c e p t i o n as a p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , the Baath p a r t y has r i g i d l y adhered t o a s e c u l a r i d e o l o g y based on Arab s o l i d a r i t y and s o c i a l i s m , i t i s not d i f f i c u l t t o grasp the b a s i s of the group's a v e r s i o n toward the Khomeinists' p r i n c i p a l d e s i g n of s p r e a d i n g t r a d i t i o n a l i s t , pan-Islamic f e r v o r throughout a l l Muslim s t a t e s . 68 CHAPTER I I NOTES •••U.S. F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Baghdad I r a q i News Agency i n A r a b i c , "Saddam H u s s e i n on R e l a t i o n s w i t h the U n i t e d S t a t e s , " 15 F e b r u a r y 1979, JN141256. 2 F a u d M a t a r , Saddam H u s s e i n : The Man, t h e Cause , and t h e F u t u r e (London: T h i r d Wor ld C e n t r e , 1981) , p . 143. 3 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e i n A r a b i c , " E x i l e d I r a q i A y a t o l l a h Terms I r a q i - S y r i a n U n i t y ' N o m i n a l , " 1 25 June 1979, LD062116. 4 M a t a r , p . 132. 5 Permanent R e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f I r a q t o the U n i t e d N a t i o n s t o S e c r e t a r y - G e n e r a l o f the U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 21 May 1980, U n i t e d N a t i o n s , G e n e r a l Assembly , 35th S e s s . , 28 May 1980, A / 3 5 / 2 6 8 , p . 3. 6 H a n n a B a t a t u , " S h i ' i O r g a n i z a t i o n s i n I r a q : A l - Da'wah a l - I s l a m i y a h and a l - M u j a h i d i n , " i n S h i ' i s m and S o c i a l P r o t e s t , e d . Juan R . I . C o l e and N i k k i R. K e d d i e (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1986), p . 181. 7 I b i d . 8 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran E t t e l a ' a t i n P e r s i a n , "Paper A l l e g e s B a a t h i s t s ' P e r s e c u t i o n o f S h i ' i t e L e a d e r , " 23 June 1979, LD270809. 9 U n i t e d N a t i o n s , G e n e r a l Assembly , R e p o r t o f the S p e c i a l Committee on Enhanc ing the E f f e c t i v e n e s s o f Non-Use o f F o r c e i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s . 25 June 1980, 35th S e s s . , A / 3 5 / 3 0 5 , p . 1. 1 0 " T h e G u l f A b l a z e , " An-Nahar A r a b R e p o r t and Memor 29 September 1980, p . 92. ^ U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Rad io i n A r a b i c , "Teheran C r i t i c i z e s I r a q i R u l e r ' s R e p r e s s i v e M e a s u r e s , " 29 June 1979, LD11456. 69 1 2 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Domest ic S e r v i c e i n P e r s i a n , " A y a t o l l a h N a j a f i Warns I r a q , " 13 June 1979, LD130712. 1 3 A n t h o n y H . Cordesman, The G u l f and the S e a r c h f o r S t r a t e g i c S t a b i l i t y : S a u d i A r a b i a , t h e M i l i t a r y Ba lance i n t h e G u l f , and T r e n d s i n t h e A r a b - I s r a e l i M i l i t a r y B a l a n c e ( B o u l d e r , C o l o r a d o : Westview P r e s s , 1984) , p p . 753-754. 1 4 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Rad io i n A r a b i c , "Teheran Rad io Denounces Baath Regime," 3 May 1980, LD224513. 1 5 M a t a r , p . 135. 1 6 C h a r g e d ' A f f a i r e s o f the Permanent M i s s i o n o f I r a q t o t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s t o P r e s i d e n t o f the U n i t e d N a t i o n s , S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , 24 September 1980, U n i t e d N a t i o n s , G e n e r a l Assembly , S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , 35th S e s s . , 24 September 1980, S/14192, p . 2. 1 7 A d e e d I . Dawisha, " I r a q i F o r e i g n P o l i c y : M o t i v e s , C o n s t r a i n t s , and P e r f o r m a n c e , " i n Sources o f Domest ic and F o r e i g n P o l i c y i n I r a g . e d . Z . M i c h a e l Szaz (Washington, D . C . : A m e r i c a n F o r e i g n P o l i c y I n s t i t u t e , 1986), p . 34. 1 8 J o h n W. Amos I I , "The I r a q - I r a n War: C o n f l i c t , L i n k a g e , and S p i l l o v e r i n the M i d d l e E a s t , " i n G u l f S e c u r i t y i n t o t h e 1980s: P e r c e p t u a l and S t r a t e g i c D i m e n s i o n s f e d . R o b e r t D a r i u s , John W. Amos I I , and R a l p h H . Magnus (Pa lo A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , Hoover I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1984) , p . 52. 1 9 C o r d e s m a n , p . 547. 2 0 U n i t e d N a t i o n s , G e n e r a l Assembly , S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , R e p o r t o f the S p e c i a l Committee on Enhanc ing the E f f e c t i v e n e s s o f the P r i n c i p l e o f Non-Use o f F o r c e i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s . 21 August 1980, 35th S e s s . , A / 3 5 / 4 0 4 , p . 2. 2 1 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran I n t e r n a t i o n a l S e r v i c e i n A r a b i c , " I r a q i I n t e r f e r e n c e S c o r e d , " 13 June 1979, JN132014. 2 2 M a t a r , p . 146. 2 3 W i l l i a m 0. S taudenmaier , "A S t r a t e g i c A n a l y s i s , " i n The I r a n - I r a q War: New Weapons. O l d C o n f l i c t s , e d . S h i r i n T a h i r - K h e l i and Shaheen A y u b i (New Y o r k : P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1983) , p . 29. 70 2 4 N e w Y o r k T i m e s . 18 September 1980. 2 5 I b i d . 2 6 R a m e s h S r e e d h a r , I r a q - I r a n War (New D e l h i : ABC P u b l i s h i n g House, 1985), p . 6. 2 7 U n i t e d N a t i o n s , G e n e r a l Assembly , S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , Review o f t h e Implementat ion o f t h e D e c l a r a t i o n on t h e S t r e n g t h e n i n g o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y . 22 September 1980, 35th S e s s . , A / 3 5 / 4 8 3 , p . 4. 2 8 S t a u d e n m a i e r , p . 27. 2 9 R o b e r t Ghobad D a r i u s , "The I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n o f 1978-1979: P o t e n t i a l I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r M a j o r C o u n t r i e s i n the A r e a , " i n R e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n : A R e a p p r a i s a l , e d . Envour Koury and C h a r l e s MacDonald ( H y a t t s v i l l e , M a r y l a n d : I n s t i t u t e o f M i d d l e E a s t e r n and N o r t h A f r i c a n A f f a i r s , 1982) , p . 31 . 3 0 Shameem A k h t a r , "Impact o f the I s l a m i c Movement i n I r a n on the R e g i o n , " P a k i s t a n H o r i z o n 1-2 (1979):88. 3 1 R u h o l l a h K h o m e i n i , I s lam and R e v o l u t i o n , t r a n s . Hamid A l g a r ( B e r k e l e y : M i z a n P r e s s , 1981), p . 38. 3 2 S h a r i f M. S h u j a , " I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n and I t s Impact on I r a q , " I s l a m i c S t u d i e s : J o u r n a l o f the I s l a m i c R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e 3 (Autumn 1980):214. 3 3 A m o s , p . 53. 3 4 D a n i e l P i p e s , "A B o r d e r A d r i f t : O r i g i n s o f the C o n f l i c t , " i n The I r a n - I r a g War: New Weapons, O l d C o n f l i c t s , e d . S h i r i n T a h i r - K h e l i and Shaheen A y u b i (New Y o r k : P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1983) , p . 9. 3 5 T h e I r a n T imes . 11 A p r i l 1980. 3 6 S h u j a , p . 216. 3 7 T a r e q Y . I s m a e l , "Ideology i n Recent I r a q i F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n The I r a n - I r a q War: O l d C o n f l i c t s . New Weapons, e d . Thomas N a f f (Washington, D . C : N a t i o n a l Defense U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1985), p . 121. 3 8 S t a u d e n m a i e r , p . 28. 71 3 9 R o b e r t Ghobad D a r i u s , " K h o m e i n i ' s P o l i c y toward t h e M i d e a s t , " i n G u l f S e c u r i t y i n t o the 1980s: P e r c e p t u a l and S t r a t e g i c Dimens ions , e d . R o b e r t G . D a r i u s , John W. Amos I I , and R a l p h H . Magnus (Pa lo A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , Hoover I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1984) , p . 41 . 4 0 D a w i s h a , p . 36. 4 1 T h e I r a n T i m e s . 14 November 1980. 4 2 K e i t h L . N e l s o n and Spencer C . O l i n , J r . , Why War?: I d e o l o g y . T h e o r y , and H i s t o r y ( B e r k e l e y : The U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1979), p . 54. CHAPTER I I I c IRAQ'S INCENTIVES: HISTORICAL, E L I T E CONSENSUS, AND THE LEVEL OF ACCURACY OF MOTIVATIONAL PERCEPTIONS The i n i t i a l s e c t i o n o f t h e p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r m a i n l y f o c u s e d on the u n d e r l y i n g importance o f the d e f e n s i v e inducements t h a t goaded the B a a t h i s t s i n t o a t t e m p t i n g t o i n f l i c t a s t r a t e g i c shock upon r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . The second s e c t i o n examined Baghdad's i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e from t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p e r s p e c t i v e o f e n t e r p r i s i n g m o t i v a t i o n s . The t h i r d s e c t i o n then demonstrated t h a t i n c e n t i v e s f o r a g g r e s s i o n can be r e i n f o r c e d by p r e d i s p o s i t i o n a l impul se s stemming from i d e o l o g i c a l , e t h n i c , and c u l t u r a l o r i g i n s . The i n i t i a l component o f t h i s c h a p t e r endeavors t o o u t l i n e the v a r i o u s h i s t o r i c a l antecedents t h a t f u r t h e r p r e d i s p o s e d Baghdad t o r e s o r t t o m i l i t a r y f o r c e a g a i n s t I r a n . The second p a r t o f t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l e s t a b l i s h t h e l e v e l o f agreement among r a n k i n g B a a t h i s t s r e g a r d i n g the e n v i s i o n e d i n r o a d and how t h i s f a c t o r i n f l u e n c e d I r a q ' s i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e i n g e n e r a l . F i n a l l y , t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l a p p r a i s e the degree o f a c c u r a c y u n d e r p i n n i n g Baghdad's i n s p i r a t i o n a l r e f l e c t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the n e c e s s i t y and u t i l i t y o f u n d e r t a k i n g a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k a g a i n s t T e h e r a n . 72 73 P r e d i l e c t i o n A r i s i n g from H i s t o r i c a l Antagonism A l o n g h i s t o r y o f s t r a i n e d r e l a t i o n s can s e r v e t o r e i n f o r c e the d i s p o s i t i o n o f a s t a t e ' s e l i t e t o i n i t i a t e a s u r p r i s e o n s l a u g h t a g a i n s t an a d v e r s a r y . Two major f a c t o r s s t a n d out among t h e v a r i o u s s o u r c e s o f h i s t o r i c a l a n t i p a t h y between Baghdad and T e h e r a n : the l a t t e r ' s e f f o r t s t o e f f e c t i n s t a b i l i t y i n t h e former t h r o u g h an engender ing o f S h i ' i t e - S u n n i a n i m o s i t y , as w e l l as an encouragement o f I r a q i Kurds t o c o n t i n u e t h e i r campaign t o r e a l i z e p a r t i a l independence; and , a v y i n g f o r r e g i o n a l m a s t e r y , which was l a r g e l y m a n i f e s t e d by the s t r u g g l e f o r c o n t r o l o v e r the d i s p u t e d t e r r i t o r i e s and e f f o r t s t o g a i n i n f l u e n c e o v e r the G u l f Arab n a t i o n s . The i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l l e v e l o f p o l i t i c a l power w i e l d e d by I r a q i S h i a s , which the Baath regime endeavored t o d i m i n i s h even f u r t h e r , can be t r a c e d t o an tecedent s t h a t p r e d a t e t h e f o r m a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f I r a q as a modern s t a t e . Throughout t h e e n t i r e epoch o f T u r k i s h dominion o v e r the t e r r i t o r y , f o r m e r l y known as Mesopotamia, which l a s t e d from a p p r o x i m a t e l y the m i d - s i x t e e n t h c e n t u r y u n t i l 1918, when the Ottoman Empire was d i v i d e d up by the v i c t o r s o f the G r e a t War, S u n n i Musl ims e x e r c i s e d mastery over l o c a l p o l i t i c a l a f f a i r s . 1 The d i s p a r a t e p o l i t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p remained u n a f f e c t e d by independence . In 1933, The I r a q i monarch, K i n g F a i s a l I , o p e n l y acknowledged the d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e degree o f power h e l d by t h e n a t i o n ' s S u n n i s , w h i l e P r e s i d e n t Abd a l - S a l a m , who r u l e d from 1963 t o 1966, was an unabashed champion o f S u n n i p o l i t i c a l s u p r e m a c y . 2 Dismay stemming from t h e i r r e l a t i v e power l e s snes s has c u l m i n a t e d i n a number o f b i d s u n d e r t a k e n by t h e S h i ' i t e masses t o b r e a k t h e Sunni m i n o r i t y ' s dominance i n r e c e n t h i s t o r y , a l b e i t a l l have been l a r g e l y u n s u c c e s s f u l . O r g a n i z e d S h i ' i t e m i l i t a n c y came t o t h e f o r e i n 1960 when a number o f h i g h c l e r i c s , i n c l u d i n g A y a t o l l a h a l - S a d r , founded t h e I s l a m i c C a l l , the r a n k s o f which c o m p r i s e d a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f the former members o f the A s s o c i a t i o n o f Ulama [ J a m ' i y a t Ulama a l - D i n ] , an i n i t i a l S h i ' i t e o r g a n i z a t i o n e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1 9 5 8 . 3 The I s l a m i c C a l l ' s c a d r e was q u i c k to e s t a b l i s h an i n f o r m a l nexus w i t h the P a h l a v i reg ime , which was q u i t e generous i n p r o f f e r i n g a s s i s t a n c e t o the movement i n i t s s t r u g g l e t o r e a l i z e the paramount end o f e x a c t i n g g r e a t e r a c c e s s t o p o l i t i c a l power from Baghdad. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note t h a t the Shah was not m o t i v a t e d by a b e n e v o l e n t c o n c e r n f o r the w e l f a r e o f I r a q ' s S h i a s b u t , r a t h e r , by a d e s i r e o f s e c u r i n g h i s p o s i t i o n as r e g i o n a l hegemon, an end which he b e l i e v e d c o u l d be f u r t h e r e d by p r o m p t i n g p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y w i t h i n the G u l f s t a t e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n I r a q . The S h a h ' s r e a s o n i n g was p r e d i c a t e d upon the premise t h a t n a t i o n s w i t h deep p o l i t i c a l , r e l i g i o u s , and e t h n i c d i v i s i o n s would f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t t o muster a s t r o n g c h a l l e n g e t o e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e . From 1968 t o 1975, the 75 I r a n i a n monarch focused on e x p l o i t i n g the d i s c o n t e n t toward Baath governance i n I r a q ' s s o u t h e a s t e r n S h i ' i t e h o l y c e n t e r s , wh ich was h e i g h t e n e d by the s evere drought g r i p p i n g t h e a r e a d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . 4 By 1974, s c o r e s o f t h e Shah' s agents had i n f i l t r a t e d s o u t h e r n I r a q and were work ing d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e I s l a m i c C a l l i n p r o p a g a t i n g a n t i - B a a t h propaganda . I t was a t t h i s j u n c t u r e , d u r i n g s e v e r a l S h i ' i t e h o l i d a y s , t h a t the f i r s t d i r e c t c l a s h e s between S h i ' i t e e x t r e m i s t s and s t a t e s e c u r i t y f o r c e s t r a n s p i r e d . The B a a t h i s t s responded w i t h a wave o f r e p r e s s i o n t h r o u g h o u t s o u t h e a s t e r n I r a q , which i n c l u d e d the e x e c u t i o n o f f i v e r a n k i n g o f f i c i a l s o f the I s l a m i c C a l l . O v e r a l l , the end r e s u l t o f T e h e r a n ' s invo lvement i n the s w e l l i n g o f S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s m i n t h e mid-1970s was t o s o l i d i f y the Baath e l i t e ' s a n t i - I r a n i a n o r i e n t a t i o n w h i c h , i n t u r n , s t r e n g t h e n e d the p r o p e n s i t y f o r a g g r e s s i o n . Beyond T e h e r a n ' s s u p p o r t f o r o p p o s i t i o n S h i ' i t e g r o u p s , t h e B a a t h i s t s ' p r e d i l e c t i o n f o r u s i n g m i l i t a r y f o r c e can a l s o be p a r t i a l l y a s c r i b e d t o the s u b s t a n t i a l I r a n i a n a s s i s t a n c e a c c o r d e d t o I r a q i K u r d i s h o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n r e c e n t h i s t o r y . K u r d i s h u n r e s t i s not a r e c e n t phenomenon p e c u l i a r t o I r a q . In f a c t , e t h n i c Kurds have been engaged i n a s t r u g g l e f o r an independent s t a t e i n the Near E a s t f o r s e v e r a l hundred y e a r s . The fundamental a s p i r a t i o n o f K u r d i s h s e p a r a t i s t s was b r i e f l y r e a l i z e d f o l l o w i n g the c e s s a t i o n o f the F i r s t World War: the 1920 T r e a t y o f S e v r e s , one o f a m u l t i t u d e o f p o s t - w a r covenants c o n c l u d e d a t V e r s a i l l e s , e s t a b l i s h e d an autonomous K u r d i s t a n . However, t h e S e v r e s a c c o r d was superceded i n 1923 by the T r e a t y o f Lausanne , which r e s u l t e d i n the d i s m a n t l i n g o f K u r d i s t a n , w i t h s e c t i o n s o f the s h o r t - l i v e d n a t i o n coming under the c o n t r o l o f S y r i a , T u r k e y , the S o v i e t U n i o n , I r a n , and I r a q . 5 A t t h i s p o i n t , analogous t o t h e i r e t h n i c b r e t h r e n i n s u r r o u n d i n g s t a t e s , I r a q ' s K u r d i s h m i n o r i t y o r g a n i z e d armed groups which commenced a campaign t o wres t autonomy from the c e n t r a l government. I n i t i a l l y , due t o a g e n e r a l l a c k o f o r g a n i z a t i o n and t o t h e r a t h e r low i n t e n s i t y o f the a c t i v i t y o f i t s f o r c e s , t h e K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n t s evoked l i t t l e c o n c e r n i n Baghdad. However, i n 1943, the K u r d i s h movement i n I r a q was s i g n i f i c a n t l y s t r e n g t h e n e d when two p o l i t i c a l g r o u p s , the R i z g a r y and Hewa p a r t i e s , began t o c o o p e r a t e w i t h M u l l a M u s t a f a a l - B a r z a n i , a w i d e l y v e n e r a t e d c l e r i c who commanded c o n s i d e r a b l e s u p p o r t among I r a q i K u r d s . The g r e a t e r c o a c t i o n o f K u r d i s h o r g a n i z a t i o n s s e r v e d t o s t i r a l a r m among I r a q i o f f i c i a l s and was r e d o u b l e d i n 1946 when the K u r d i s h D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y (KDP), which g r a d u a l l y emerged as t h e K u r d s ' p r i n c i p a l p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , was founded. W i t h the d e p o s a l o f the I r a q i monarchy i n 1958, the KDP was h o p e f u l t h a t t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime would g r a n t autonomy t o I r a q ' s K u r d s . However, i n i t i a l , sanguine e x p e c t a t i o n s soon faded as the new government, l e d by G e n e r a l Abd a l - K a r i m Qasiin, i n d i c a t e d t h a t i t was a v e r s e t o t h e a f f o r d i n g o f any s u b s t a n t i v e c o n c e s s i o n s t o the K u r d s . In September o f 1958, t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y l e a d e r s h i p sparked a new round o f f i g h t i n g by o r d e r i n g the s h e l l i n g o f K u r d i s h s t r o n g h o l d s i n n o r t h e r n I r a q , i n c l u d i n g the base o f M u l l a a l - B a r z a n i who, from t h i s j u n c t u r e onward, came t o be r e g a r d e d as the s p i r i t u a l g u i d e o f the K u r d i s h r e s i s t a n c e . Baghdad's a v e r s i o n toward n e g o t i a t i n g w i t h the Kurds waned as t h e i n s u r g e n c y i n t e n s i f i e d d u r i n g t h e e a r l y 1960s, and i n June o f 1966, an a c c o r d was c o n c l u d e d w i t h t h e KDP which g r a n t e d the Kurds s i g n i f i c a n t freedom t o govern l o c a l p o l i t i c a l and economic a f f a i r s . However, t h e c e n t r a l r e g i m e ' s adherence t o the s t i p u l a t i o n s o f the agreement p r o v e d i n c o n s t a n t and , c o n s e q u e n t l y , the g u e r r i l l a campaign, which had been b r i e f l y suspended, was resumed. I t was a t t h i s t i m e t h a t t h e Shah e n t e r e d the f r a y by t r a n s p o r t i n g s i z a b l e amounts o f weaponry and m a t e r i a l , the b u l k o f which was p r o v i d e d by Washington and T e l A v i v , t o t h e K u r d i s h combatants . When the B a a t h i s t s assumed power i n 1968, a d d i t i o n a l e f f o r t s t o p a c i f y the K u r d i s h p o p u l a c e were u n d e r t a k e n . F o l l o w i n g l e n g t h y n e g o t i a t i o n s , which were commenced i n J a n u a r y o f 1970, P r e s i d e n t a l - B a k r and K u r d i s h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s c o n c l u d e d a new covenant on 11 March 1970, which s t i p u l a t e d t h a t a Kurd would h o l d t h e o f f i c e o f v i c e - p r e s i d e n t , and t h a t g r e a t e r a c c e s s t o h i g h e r p o s t s i n the 78 government, t h e m i l i t a r y , and i n s t i t u t i o n s o f h i g h e r l e a r n i n g would be extended t o the K u r d s . 6 But a g a i n , consensus r e g a r d i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f v a r i o u s s e c t i o n s o f t h e agreement p r o v e d e l u s i v e and , c o n s e q u e n t l y , heavy combat i n the n o r t h was soon underway a g a i n . By 1975, K u r d i s h f o r c e s were engaging i n f r e q u e n t , l a r g e - s c a l e c l a s h e s w i t h government t r o o p s , and the g u e r r i l l a c o n f l i c t was p r o v i n g i n c r e a s i n g l y c o s t l y f o r the Baath reg ime , n e c e s s i t a t i n g the e x p e n d i t u r e o f a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f I r a q ' s GNP on d e f e n s e , w h i l e e f f e c t i n g an a t t e n d a n t drop i n i n d u s t r i a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l o u t p u t . 7 To f u r t h e r compound Baghdad's woes, by t h i s j u n c t u r e , the Shah was g r a n t i n g K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n t s d i r e c t I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y s u p p o r t , which i n c l u d e d a i r s t r i k e s and a r t i l l e r y b a r r a g e s a g a i n s t I r a q i t r o o p s . The a c t u a l invo lvement o f I r a n i a n f o r c e s i n the K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n c y por tended an o u t b r e a k o f war w i t h I r a n and the s p e c t e r o f such a development , due t o t h e wide s u p e r i o r i t y o f the Shah' s m i l i t a r y machine , was most d i s c o m f i t i n g t o t h e B a a t h i s t s . A c c o r d i n g l y , toward t h e end o f f o r e s t a l l i n g the onset o f a m i l i t a r y c o n f l i c t between I r a q and I r a n , the Baath e l i t e agreed t o p a r t a k e i n b i l a t e r a l n e g o t i a t i o n s b r o k e r e d by P r e s i d e n t H o u a r i Boumedienne o f A l g e r i a , which c u l m i n a t e d i n the c o n c l u s i o n o f t h e A l g i e r s agreement, a key p r o v i s i o n o f which c a l l e d f o r a t e r m i n a t i o n o f T e h e r a n ' s a b e t t i n g I r a q i K u r d i s h g u e r r i l l a s . O v e r a l l , though the Baath regime was a b l e t o r a p i d l y q u e l l t h e i n s u r g e n c y f o l l o w i n g the w i t h d r a w a l o f I r a n i a n a i d , the g r e a t expense o f the Shah ' s m e d d l i n g i n I r a q ' s i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s s e r v e d t o deepen t h e p r e d i s p o s i t i o n t o u t i l i z e f o r c e as a means o f a v e r t i n g I r a n i a n - s p o n s o r e d s u b v e r s i o n i n the f u t u r e . In a d d i t i o n t o the I r a n i a n monarch's e f f o r t s t o shore up the p o s i t i o n o f S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s t s and K u r d i s h m i l i t a n t s , t h e s t r u g g l e between Baghdad and Teheran f o r r e g i o n a l supremacy c o n s t i t u t e d an a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the B a a t h i s t s ' h i s t o r i c a l p r o p e n s i t y t o go t o war w i t h I r a n . The Baath e l i t e ' s hegemonic a s p i r a t i o n s d i d not o r i g i n a t e w i t h the demise o f the P a h l a v i d y n a s t y . R a t h e r , Saddam H u s s e i n and o t h e r r a n k i n g B a a t h i s t s had l o n g e n t e r t a i n e d d e s i g n s o f t e r r i t o r i a l aggrandizement w h i c h , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p r i m a r y g o a l o f s e c u r i n g ascendancy over Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs , Khuzes tan and the S h a t t a l - A r a b , i n c l u d e d the a n n e x a t i o n o f the K u w a i t i i s l a n d s o f Bub iyan and Warbah. The r e c e n t h i s t o r y o f I r a q i - I r a n i a n hegemonic w r a n g l i n g took a more i n t e n s e t u r n as the B r i t i s h v a c a t e d t h e i r Near E a s t e r n dominions i n the l a t e 1960s and e a r l y 1970s. Due t o t h e more c o n s e r v a t i v e o r i e n t a t i o n o f the I r a n i a n monarchy, Teheran was a f f o r d e d c r u c i a l Western s u p p o r t , i n c l u d i n g a s s i s t a n c e i n e s t a b l i s h i n g a p o w e r f u l m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y , and was t h e r e f o r e i n an advantageous p o s i t i o n t o e s t a b l i s h paramountcy o v e r the P e r s i a n G u l f r e g i o n . As a r e s u l t , 80 Baghdad was f o r c e d t o l i m i t i t s campaign f o r r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s h i p t o s t r i c t l y c l a n d e s t i n e , and l a r g e l y i n e f f e c t u a l , e f f o r t s t o i n s t i g a t e p o l i t i c a l d e s t a b i l i z a t i o n i n t h e l i t t o r a l she ikdoms. L o n d o n ' s d e c i s i o n t o r e c a l l B r i t i s h t r o o p s s t a t i o n e d on Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs was welcomed by t h e o p p o r t u n i s t i c Shah, who, i n l i n e w i t h r e g i o n a l d e s i g n s , moved q u i c k l y t o e s t a b l i s h I r a n i a n c o n t r o l o v e r the i s l a n d s . I n i t i a l l y , Teheran at tempted t o goad the U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s , which had been d e s i g n a t e d as t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r o v e r t h e i s l a n d s by the B r i t i s h , i n t o r e l i n q u i s h i n g s o v e r e i g n t y p e a c e f u l l y . In pursuance o f t h i s g o a l , the Shah sought t o e s t a b l i s h a l e g i t i m a t e b a s i s f o r h i s i n t e r e s t i n the t e r r i t o r y by a s s e r t i n g t h a t Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs had been under P e r s i a n dominion p r i o r t o t h e i r s e i z u r e by the A r a b s d u r i n g the n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y and t h a t c o n t r o l o f the i s l a n d s was i m p e r a t i v e f o r I r a n ' s s e c u r i t y . 8 On 29 November 1971, the Shah' s o b j e c t i v e was p a r t i a l l y r e a l i z e d when Teheran c o n c l u d e d an a c c o r d r e g a r d i n g t h e s t a t u s o f Abu Musa w i t h the S h e i k o f S h a r j a h , one o f the p r i n c i p a l i t i e s t h a t compr i se the U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s (UAE) . The agreement s t i p u l a t e d t h a t I r a n i a n f o r c e s would e x e r c i s e c o n t r o l over a p o r t i o n o f Abu Musa, w h i l e S h a r j a h would h o l d sway over the r e m a i n i n g s e c t i o n o f t h e i s l a n d , and t h a t a l l funds g e n e r a t e d by the s a l e o f p e t r o l e u m e x t r a c t e d from the i s l a n d and a d j o i n i n g waters 81 would be e q u a l l y d i v i d e d between I r a n and S h a r j a h . 9 However, w h i l e agreement was e a s i l y r e a c h e d over Abu Musa, t h e emir o f Ras a l - K h a i m a h , a n o t h e r c i t y - s t a t e w i t h i n the UAE, r e s i s t e d I r a n ' s o v e r t u r e s r e g a r d i n g t h e G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs , which prompted the Shah t o o r d e r I r a n i a n f o r c e s t o occupy the i s l a n d s on 30 November. Baath o f f i c i a l s immedia te ly p u t f o r t h b i t t e r condemnations o f the Shah ' s a g g r e s s i v e a c t i o n . A n d , on I r a q i i n s i s t e n c e , a meet ing o f the U n i t e d N a t i o n ' s S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l was convened i n e a r l y December, d u r i n g which i t was p o i n t e d out t h a t from 1750 u n t i l 1866, the i s l a n d s had been under t h e j u r i s d i c t i o n o f Ras a l - K h a i m a and t h a t from 1866 t o 1971, Ras a l - K h a i m a had shared nominal r u l e r s h i p over the t h r e e i s l a n d s w i t h S h a r j a h . P r o c e e d i n g from these o b s e r v a t i o n s , Baghdad argued t h a t t h e r e was no v a l i d i t y t o T e h e r a n ' s c l a i m s o f a h i s t o r i c a l r i g h t t o the t e r r i t o r y . In a d d i t i o n , I r a n i a n d i p l o m a t s f a i l e d t o c o n v i n c e the S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l t h a t any l e g a l , l e g i t i m a t e b a s i s e x i s t e d f o r t h e s e i z u r e o f the i s l a n d s and , as a r e s u l t , r e s o l u t i o n s were c a r r i e d which c a l l e d f o r an u n c o n d i t i o n a l I r a n i a n w i t h d r a w a l . However, t h e Shah d e c i d e d t o s i m p l y i g n o r e the U n i t e d N a t i o n ' s judgments , and t h i s prompted the I r a q i e l i t e t o t a k e r e t a l i a t o r y measures , which i n c l u d e d the e x p u l s i o n o f some s i x t y thousand I r a n i a n n a t i o n a l s and the s e v e r a n c e o f d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h T e h e r a n . T h i s b i t t e r e x p e r i e n c e c o n v i n c e d Baath o f f i c i a l s t h a t I r a n was no t 82 i n t e r e s t e d i n e q u i t a b l y r e s o l v i n g c o n f l i c t s t h r o u g h d i p l o m a t i c c h a n n e l s , and t h i s c o n c l u s i o n gave r i s e t o the a t t e n d a n t b e l i e f i n Baghdad t h a t f o r c e , r a t h e r t h a n d i p l o m a c y , c o n s t i t u t e d the most v i a b l e medium f o r s e t t l i n g i s s u e s o f c o n t e n t i o n w i t h T e h e r a n . A p u r s u i t o f dominion over Khuzes tan r e p r e s e n t s a n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t f e a t u r e o f the s t r u g g l e f o r r e g i o n a l supremacy t h a t Baghdad and Teheran have been engaged i n d u r i n g r e c e n t h i s t o r y . The K h u z e s t a n i p o p u l a c e , which i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y e i g h t y p e r c e n t A r a b i c s p e a k i n g , was under the s u b j u g a t i o n o f C o n s t a n t i n o p l e u n t i l 1924, a t which p o i n t I r a n was a s s i g n e d c o n t r o l over the r e g i o n by the League o f N a t i o n s . I r a q c h a l l e n g e d I r a n ' s a c q u i s i t i o n o f Khuzes tan from t h e o u t s e t . F o l l o w i n g the e l i m i n a t i o n o f m o n a r c h i a l r u l e i n 1958, the r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime wasted l i t t l e t ime i n d e m o n s t r a t i n g i t s i n t e r e s t i n annex ing Khuzes tan by h o l d i n g t h a t I r a q had a l e g i t i m a t e t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i m t o A b a d a n . 1 0 I t was a t t h i s j u n c t u r e t h a t Baghdad began t o at tempt t o f o s t e r u n r e s t i n Khuzes tan by a r o u s i n g A r a b n a t i o n a l i s t s e n t i m e n t . T h i s was l a r g e l y a t tempted by p r o f f e r i n g a i d t o A r a b i r r e d e n t i s t s o r g a n i z e d under the F r o n t f o r the L i b e r a t i o n o f K h u z e s t a n . F u r t h e r e v i d e n c e o f Baghdad's a s p i r a t i o n t o s e c u r e c o n t r o l o f Khuzes tan came i n 1969 when t h e I r a q i M i n i s t r y o f I n f o r m a t i o n p u b l i s h e d a t r a c t a t e e n t i t l e d "The H i s t o r y o f A r a b i s t a n [ K h u z e s t a n ] , " i n which i t was argued t h a t s i n c e I r a n ' s g a i n i n g o f c o n t r o l over the 83 t e r r i t o r y , the A r a b s r e s i d i n g t h e r e had been s u b j e c t e d t o " t y r a n n i c a l " r u l e and " r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n " by T e h e r a n . 1 1 However, beyond f u r t h e r s t r a i n i n g r e l a t i o n s between Baghdad and T e h e r a n , t h e B a a t h i s t s ' e f f o r t s d i d l i t t l e t o advance the o b j e c t i v e o f e s t a b l i s h i n g I r a q i c o n t r o l o v e r K h u z e s t a n . O v e r a l l , s h o r t l y a f t e r coming t o power, t h e Baath e l i t e came t o r e a l i z e t h a t t h e r e was no r e a l l i k e l i h o o d o f annex ing Khuzes tan as l o n g as the p o w e r f u l P a h l a v i regime remained i n power. But w i t h the onse t o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , the B a a t h i s t s were w e l l p r e d i s p o s e d t o mount a renewal o f e f f o r t s t o g a i n c o n t r o l over t h i s p r i z e d t e r r i t o r y . F r i c t i o n over the d e l i n e a t i o n o f segments o f the common f r o n t i e r , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t c o n s i s t i n g o f the S h a t t a l - A r a b , has been an a d d i t i o n a l , e n d u r i n g s o u r c e o f i n t e r s t a t e t e n s i o n o v e r the l a s t s e v e r a l hundred y e a r s . Between 1520 and 1975, t e n s e p a r a t e a c c o r d s r e g a r d i n g the waterway were c o n c l u d e d . 1 2 Throughout the s i x t e e n t h , s e v e n t e e n t h , e i g h t e e n t h , and n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r i e s , as w e l l as d u r i n g t h e f i r s t two decades o f t h i s c e n t u r y , Teheran s t r u g g l e d w i t h the P o r t e t o g a i n ascendancy over t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b . I r a n ' s m o n a r c h i a l r u l e r s , throughout t h i s epoch, c o n s i s t e n t l y argued t h a t , due t o t h e f a c t t h a t s i x t y p e r c e n t o f t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b ' s water emanated from a number o f I r a n i a n r i v e r s , Teheran was e n t i t l e d t o mastery over the e s t u a r y . N o n e t h e l e s s , t h i s p o s i t i o n f a i l e d t o e l i c i t a f a v o r a b l e re sponse from the Ottoman S u l t a n a t e . 84 I n 1908, s u b s t a n t i a l p e t r o l e u m d e p o s i t s were d i s c o v e r e d i n Khuzes tan and t h i s development s e r v e d t o g r e a t l y h e i g h t e n the importance o f e x e r t i n g c o n t r o l o v e r the S h a t t a l - A r a b . In 1913, I r a n and the Ottoman E m p i r e , a l o n g w i t h R u s s i a and G r e a t B r i t a i n , which were v y i n g t o e s t a b l i s h i n f l u e n c e i n the r e g i o n , c o n c l u d e d the C o n s t a n t i n o p l e P r o t o c o l , a key p r o v i s i o n o f which e s t a b l i s h e d a commiss ion t o a r r i v e a t a new s e t t l e m e n t r e g a r d i n g the d e m a r c a t i o n o f the waterway. S h o r t l y a f t e r w a r d , Ottoman and B r i t i s h envoys s i g n e d the London D e c l a r a t i o n , which extended dominion over t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b t o C o n s t a n t i n o p l e . The I r a n i a n monarchy was opposed t o the terms o f the London D e c l a r a t i o n and when I r a q was a f f o r d e d l i m i t e d autonomy i n 1920, Teheran i n s i s t e d t h a t a f o r m a l r e c o g n i t i o n o f I r a q i independence would be c o n t i n g e n t upon Baghdad's w i l l i n g n e s s t o r e n e g o t i a t e the d e l i n e a t i o n o f t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b . The impos ing o f t h i s l i n k a g e was not w e l l r e c e i v e d i n Baghdad, and when o f f i c i a l s o f t h e newly founded s t a t e announced t h a t they i n t e n d e d t o c o n t i n u e observance o f the p r o v i s i o n s o f the 1913 a c c o r d and t o r e t a i n t h e mandate o v e r the waterway t h a t had o r i g i n a l l y been g r a n t e d t o the P o r t e , I r a n responded by t e r m i n a t i n g c o m p l i a n c e w i t h the London D e c l a r a t i o n a l t o g e t h e r , c l a i m i n g t h a t a c c e p t a n c e o f the t r e a t y had been f o r c e d by the B r i t i s h . 1 3 T e h e r a n ' s d i s c a r d i n g o f the London D e c l a r a t i o n , on the grounds t h a t the a c c o r d had been c o n c l u d e d under 85 c o m p u l s i o n , e s t a b l i s h e d an i m p o r t a n t p r e c e d e n t o f u n i l a t e r a l a b r o g a t i o n o f i n t e r s t a t e covenants between I r a q and I r a n . R i s i n g I r a n i a n d i s a f f e c t i o n toward I r a q ' s upper hand o v e r t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b r e s u l t e d i n t h e onse t o f a g g r e s s i o n ; t h r o u g h o u t the 1920s, s p o r a d i c , armed c l a s h e s t r a n s p i r e d between I r a n i a n n a v a l f o r c e s and t h e c o n s t a b u l a r y a t t a c h e d t o the B a s r a P o r t A u t h o r i t y . 1 4 By the 1930s, the c o n t e s t f o r c o n t r o l over the e c o n o m i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t r i v e r had come t o c o n s t i t u t e a s a l i e n t f e a t u r e o f I r a q i - I r a n i a n r e l a t i o n s . A t t h i s j u n c t u r e , Reza Shah began t o c h a l l e n g e Baghdad's supremacy o v e r the S h a t t a l - A r a b b e f o r e t h e League o f N a t i o n s , m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t the e s t u a r y s h o u l d be d i v i d e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the tha lweg p r i n c i p l e , 1 5 a p r o v i s i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l law which h o l d s t h a t when two n a t i o n s a r e d i v i d e d by a waterway, the f r o n t i e r w i l l f o l l o w the m i d - c h a n n e l l i n e . Teheran r e a l i z e d a minor c o n c e s s i o n w i t h the c o n c l u s i o n o f a new t r e a t y i n 1937 w h i c h , a l t h o u g h i t p r e s e r v e d I r a q i c o n t r o l over most o f the S h a t t a l - A r a b , s t i p u l a t e d t h a t t h e waterway would be demarcated a l o n g the tha lweg i n p r o x i m i t y t o the I r a n i a n p o r t s o f Abadan and Khorramshahr . The s i g n i n g o f the 1937 agreement ushered i n a p e r i o d o f r e l a t i v e t r a n q u i l i t y between I r a q and I r a n , which endured u n t i l t h e l a t e 1960s when Reza Shah ' s s u c c e s s o r , Muhammad Reza P a h l a v i , became i n c r e a s i n g l y vexed over the 1937 p a c t , which he h e l d t o be i n c o n t r a v e n t i o n o f 86 i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t a t u t e r e g a r d i n g i n t e r s t a t e f r o n t i e r s . 1 6 In a d d i t i o n , i t was charged t h a t I r a q had l o n g been i n noncompl iance w i t h v a r i o u s p r o v i s i o n s o f the t r e a t y , p r i n c i p a l l y t h o s e t h a t e s t a b l i s h e d c o o p e r a t i o n i n the upkeep o f the c h a n n e l and the e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f funds g e n e r a t e d by usage l e v i e s e x a c t e d from commerc ia l s h i p p i n g . More p r e c i s e l y , the Shah o p e n l y accused I r a q i a u t h o r i t i e s o f i m p r o p e r l y u s i n g an e x c e s s i v e p e r c e n t a g e o f the c o l l e c t e d revenue t o improve I r a q ' s i n f r a s t r u c t u r e r a t h e r than t o m a i n t a i n t h e S h a t t a l - A r a b . The P a h l a v i regime s e i z e d upon the a l l e g e d I r a q i i n f r a c t i o n s t o advance an immediate , p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e : the d e m a r c a t i o n o f the e n t i r e l e n g t h o f t h e waterway a l o n g the t h a l w e g . However, t h e B a a t h i s t s demonstra ted an uncompromising u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o accede t o the S h a h ' s demands and , i n r e s p o n s e , I r a n opted t o j e t t i s o n adherence t o the 1937 b o r d e r p a c t . T h i s e v e n t , which e f f e c t e d a r e g e n e r a t i o n o f dormant i l l - w i l l between Baghdad and T e h e r a n , marked the second o c c a s i o n on which an I r a n i a n r u l e r had u n i l a t e r a l l y ceased observance o f a major e n t e n t e . A n d , i t i s no t u n r e a s o n a b l e t o h o l d t h a t Baghdad's s c r a p p i n g o f t h e A l g i e r s a c c o r d i n September o f 1980 was l i k e l y i n f l u e n c e d by a c o g n i z a n c e o f T e h e r a n ' s c a v a l i e r penchant f o r i l l e g a l l y suspending compl iance w i t h major e n t e n t e s i n t h e p a s t . T e n s i o n between I r a q and I r a n r a p i d l y mounted i n the f o l l o w i n g y e a r s as the Shah p l a c e d i n c r e a s i n g r e l i a n c e upon 87 the use o f f o r c e as a means o f c o m p e l l i n g the B a a t h i s t s t o abandon t h e i r e f f o r t s t o m a i n t a i n I r a q i sway o v e r the S h a t t a l - A r a b . As ment ioned p r e v i o u s l y , a n o t a b l e a s p e c t o f the S h a h ' s campaign t o weaken Baghdad's r e s o l v e a g a i n s t p a r t a k i n g i n a new d i p l o m a t i c c o n f e r e n c e r e g a r d i n g the f r o n t i e r d i s p u t e , was the bes towing o f i n d i r e c t , and l a t e r d i r e c t , a i d t o I r a q i S h i ' i t e a c t i v i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s and K u r d i s h s e p a r a t i s t s . By 1975, the c o s t o f I r a n i a n a s s i s t a n c e t o these e lements had reached an i n t o l e r a b l e l e v e l t o t h e B a a t h i s t s , who c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e r e was no a l t e r n a t i v e b u t t o bow t o the Shah' s t e r r i t o r i a l o b j e c t i v e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , a t the annua l OPEC summit i n M a r c h , the A l g i e r s agreement, t h e p r o v i s i o n s o f which were c l e a r l y p r e f e r e n t i a l t o I r a n , was h a s t i l y c o n c l u d e d . The l o s s o f mastery over the v a l u a b l e e s t u a r y , c o u p l e d w i t h T e h e r a n ' s a b e t t i n g o f Baath o p p o s i t i o n g r o u p s , i m p a r t e d i n most h i g h - r a n k i n g I r a q i o f f i c i a l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y Saddam H u s s e i n , an i n t e n s e l o a t h i n g o f t h e Shah w h i c h , i n t u r n , gave r i s e t o a s t r o n g h i s t o r i c a l , p r e d i s p o s i t i o n a l b a s i s f o r r e s o r t i n g t o an i n c u r s i o n . Degree o f I r a q i E l i t e U n i t y Regarding; the E f f i c a c y o f A t t e m p t i n g a S t r a t e g i c S u r p r i s e A nexus can be d i s c e r n e d between t h e s t r e n g t h o f inducements f o r r e s o r t i n g t o a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k and the l e v e l o f u n a n i m i t y r e g a r d i n g the wisdom o f such an u n d e r t a k i n g p r e v a l e n t among the a g g r e s s o r ' s key governmenta l 88 a c t o r s . A s t r o n g i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e f o r c a r r y i n g out a s u r p r i s e i n r o a d i s more l i k e l y t o a r i s e i n a s t a t e r u l e d by a p o w e r f u l , i d e o l o g i c a l l y u n i t e d e l i t e , and i n which t h e r e e x i s t s a min imal l e v e l o f b u r e a u c r a t i c o b s t a c l e s t o hamper t h e a t t a i n m e n t o f c o n c u r r e n c e r e g a r d i n g t h e need o f r e s o r t i n g t o f o r c e . Over the l a s t twenty y e a r s , the I r a q i p o l i t y has been under the near e x c l u s i v e p r e d o m i n a t i o n o f t h e n a r r o w l y based Baath e l i t e , a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e r a n k s o f which beckon from the s m a l l S u n n i v i l l a g e o f T a k r i t , wh ich i s l o c a t e d i n n o r t h w e s t e r n I r a q . From n e a r l y the commencement o f t h e i r t e n u r e i n 1968, t h e B a a t h i s t s ' governance has been p r e d i c a t e d upon an i n t e n s e c u l t o f p e r s o n a l i t y e v o l v i n g around Saddam H u s s e i n , which has come t o be f r e q u e n t l y a l l u d e d t o as "Saddamism." Saddam H u s s e i n j o i n e d t h e Baath p a r t y a t age twenty and i n 1968, upon the B a a t h i s t s coming t o power, h i s p o l i t i c a l c a r e e r t o o k o f f when he was g r a n t e d an i n f l u e n t i a l p o s i t i o n i n the regime o f P r e s i d e n t a l - B a k r . W i t h i n a y e a r o f j o i n i n g the Government, H u s s e i n had advanced t o the p o s t o f v i c e - c h a i r m a n o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y Command C o u n c i l , 1 7 the n a t i o n ' s most i m p o r t a n t governmental body. Saddam H u s s e i n r e a l i z e d de f a c t o d e t e r m i n a t i o n over I r a q ' s p o l i t i c a l system i n 1976, when P r e s i d e n t a l - B a k r s u f f e r e d a h e a r t a t t a c k . From t h i s p o i n t onward, H u s s e i n endeavored f e v e r i s h l y t o s e c u r e h i s p o s i t i o n , and when he succeeded the a i l i n g a l - Bakr as de j u r e head-of -government on 16 J u l y 1979, he had 89 a l r e a d y amassed an e x t r a o r d i n a r y c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l power v i s - a - v i s the a c q u i s i t i o n of a number o f important government, p a r t y , and m i l i t a r y p o s t s , i n c l u d i n g the f o l l o w i n g : s e c r e t a r y - g e n e r a l of the Baath p a r t y ; chairman of the R e v o l u t i o n a r y Command C o u n c i l ; commander-in-chief of I r a q ' s armed f o r c e s ; and, prime m i n i s t e r . S i n c e coming t o power, the B a a t h i s t s have demonstrated an a u t h o r i t a r i a n l e a n i n g and have c o n s i s t e n t l y endeavored t o hamper the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an i d e o l o g i c a l l y p l u r a l i s t i c p o l i t y . In a d d i t i o n , the p o l i t i c a l atmosphere i n I r a q became i n c r e a s i n g l y d i c t a t o r i a l w i t h the ascendancy of Saddam Hussein, who came t o demonstrate a t o t a l i t a r i a n b e a r i n g approximating t h a t of S t a l i n . The I r a q i despot e f f e c t i v e l y d e t e r r e d open e x p r e s s i o n s o f o p p o s i t i o n t o Baath p o l i t i c a l dominance by r e l y i n g upon an e f f e c t i v e and u b i q u i t o u s p o l i c e f o r c e , e u p h e m i s t i c a l l y known as " P u b l i c S e c u r i t y " [Al-Mukhabarat], which was under the command o f Barazan Ibrahim, a c l o s e c o n f i d a n t of Hussein, and which was a f f o r d e d c a r t e blanche t o use v i o l e n c e i n s u p p r e s s i n g d i s s i d e n c e . By and l a r g e , s i n c e the onset o f Baath r u l e , I r a q ' s populace has been denied b a s i c c i v i l l i b e r t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y the r i g h t of f r e e speech; the n e c e s s i t y of o b t a i n i n g a permit t o own a common t y p e w r i t e r c o n s t i t u t e s c o n c l u s i v e evidence of the B a a t h i s t s ' r e p r e s s i v e o r i e n t a t i o n . 1 8 90 Immediate ly p r i o r t o the " r e t i r e m e n t " o f P r e s i d e n t a l - B a k r , Saddam H u s s e i n sacked Mohye A b d e l H u s s e i n , t h e s e c r e t a r y - g e n e r a l o f the R e v o l u t i o n a r y Command C o u n c i l , who, i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e , was one o f the few S h i a s h o l d i n g a h i g h government p o s t i n I r a q . T h i s move was met w i t h s t r o n g p r o t e s t by a l - B a k r , and t h i s unwelcome r e a c t i o n c o n s t i t u t e d the main impetus u n d e r l y i n g H u s s e i n ' s d e c i s i o n t o q u i e t l y compel t h e w i d e l y r e s p e c t e d p r e s i d e n t t o r e s i g n h i s o f f i c e . F u r t h e r m o r e , a t t h i s j u n c t u r e , H u s s e i n l aunched a campaign t o o u s t the m i n o r i t y o f r a n k i n g government and p a r t y o f f i c i a l s who had expres sed r e s e r v a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g h i s a g g r e s s i v e d e s i g n s o f a t t a c k i n g r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n and o f e s t a b l i s h i n g I r a q as a r e g i o n a l power. The M a c h i a v e l l i a n H u s s e i n opted t o use the s u b t e r f u g e o f a l l e g e d , s e d i t i o u s c o n s p i r a c y t o purge p e r c e i v e d opponents o f h i s o b j e c t i v e s . In m i d - A u g u s t , f o l l o w i n g summary t r i a l s conducted by h a s t i l y as sembled , e x t r a o r d i n a r y t r i b u n a l s , twenty-one a l l e g e d c o n s p i r a t o r s were found c u l p a b l e o f a n t i - g o v e r n m e n t i n t r i g u e and were p r o m p t l y e x e c u t e d ; i n a d d i t i o n , s c o r e s o f o t h e r o f f i c i a l s were sentenced t o l e n g t h y terms i n j a i l . C h i e f among t h o s e put t o death a t t h i s j u n c t u r e was Adnan H u s s e i n , t h e s e n i o r S h i ' i t e adherent w i t h i n the reg ime , who h e l d t h e p o s t s o f deputy pr ime m i n i s t e r and s e c r e t a r y o f t h e R e v o l u t i o n a r y Command C o u n c i l . Adnan H u s s e i n was succeeded by the h a r d - l i n e C o l o n e l T a r e q Hamed a l - A b d u l l a h , an i n v e t e r a t e proponent o f Saddam H u s s e i n ' s hegemonic a s p i r a t i o n s . O v e r a l l , i n consonance w i t h the c o u n s e l o f M a c h i a v e l l i , Saddam H u s s e i n e l i m i n a t e d t h e r e m a i n i n g v e s t i g e s o f f a c t i o n a l d i v i s i o n w i t h i n the upper e c h e l o n s o f t h e Baath g o v e r n i n g e l i t e w i t h one v i o l e n t p u r g e . By t h e t ime Saddam H u s s e i n ascended t o the p r e s i d e n c y i n mid-1979 , t h e Baath p a r t y , t h e r a n k s o f which had burgeoned t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y one m i l l i o n members out o f a t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f some twe lve m i l l i o n , had become, u n e q u i v o c a l l y , t h e c e n t r a l i n s t i t u t i o n o f s t a t e and s o c i e t y i n I r a q . Advancement w i t h i n the p o l i t i c a l h i e r a r c h y , as w e l l as the s e c u r i n g o f p e r s o n a l w e a l t h , was c o n t i n g e n t upon a d e m o n s t r a t i o n o f unwavering s u p p o r t f o r the B a a t h i s t agenda. S i m p l y p u t , o n l y a r d e n t Baath l o y a l i s t s c o u l d r e a l i s t i c a l l y a s p i r e t o a t t a i n a p o s i t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l o r f i n a n c i a l eminence w i t h i n I r a q . A n d , a t t h i s p o i n t , a lmos t a l l i m p o r t a n t government p o s t s were h e l d by B a a t h i s t s , r e s u l t i n g i n a m o n o p o l i z a t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l power by the p a r t y t h a t made i t a lmost i n d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e from the Government. By and l a r g e , by mid-1980 , t h e Baath e l i t e , o v e r which Saddam H u s s e i n e x e r c i s e d u l t i m a t e a u t h o r i t y , was a b l e t o conduct the f i n a l p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r the e n v i s i o n e d e f f o r t t o i n f l i c t a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e upon K h o m e i n i ' s I r a n , u n h i n d e r e d by i n t r a r e g i m e o p p o s i t i o n . T h i s a t t r i b u t e s tands as an i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f Baghdad's inducement s t r u c t u r e . 92 Degree o f M i s p e r c e p t i o n i n the V a l u a t i o n s C o m p r i s i n g the I r a q i Regime's I n c e n t i v e S t r u c t u r e The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e f i n a l s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o gauge t h e l e v e l o f a c c u r a c y o f the e s t i m a t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g Baghdad's m o t i v a t i o n s f o r u n d e r t a k i n g a s u r p r i s e m i l i t a r y a t t a c k . Such an u n d e r t a k i n g i s o f s i g n i f i c a n t i m p o r t a n c e , f o r i n d o i n g so , the o v e r a l l wisdom, o r d e a r t h o f , b e h i n d t h e d e c i s i o n t o r e s o r t t o w a r f a r e can be d e t e r m i n e d w h i c h , i n t u r n , can be o f u t i l i t y i n p r o f f e r i n g p r e s c r i p t i o n a g a i n s t t h e o u t b r e a k o f f u t u r e c o n f l i c t s . The p r i n c i p a l e r r o r u n d e r l y i n g t h e Baath r e g i m e ' s impetus t o i n v a d e t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c was an i m p r e c i s e assessment o f t h e e x t e n t o f immediate t h r e a t posed by t h e I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n t o s t a b i l i t y w i t h i n I r a q . More p r e c i s e l y , the B a a t h i s t s o v e r e s t i m a t e d the p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e K h o m e i n i s t s t o f o s t e r a b u r g e o n i n g o f I s l a m i c fundamenta l i sm i n the s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n o f the c o u n t r y . W i t h r e g a r d t o t h e p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t o f p o l i t i c a l d e s t a b i l i z a t i o n r e p r e s e n t e d by the I s l a m i c C a l l and the M u s l i m W a r r i o r s , the B a a t h i s t s e r r e d by f a i l i n g t o c l e a r l y d i s c e r n t h e l i m i t e d e x t e n t o f the a f f i n i t y between these S h i ' i t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s and the I r a n i a n churchmen. A l t h o u g h a t t h e o u t s e t , the I s l a m i c C a l l had been h o p e f u l t h a t the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n would e f f e c t a major improvement o f the l o t o f I r a n ' s peasant masses w h i c h , i n t u r n , might e f f e c t a s i m i l a r , p o p u l a r u p h e a v a l i n I r a q and o t h e r s u r r o u n d i n g M u s l i m s t a t e s , t h e i n c r e a s i n g l y d e s p o t i c demeanor o f the K h o m e i n i s t s , a l o n g w i t h r a p i d l y e s c a l a t i n g economic d i s l o c a t i o n , s e r v e d t o d i m i n i s h the o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s p r o - Khomein i z e a l . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e i r e s p o u s a l o f a t r a d i t i o n a l I s l a m i c l i f e s t y l e , i t was the p o s i t i o n o f the I s l a m i c C a l l t h a t the I r a n i a n c l e r i c s ' a t tempts t o base the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s p o l i t i c a l system and economy on a n t i q u a t e d , p u r i t a n i c a l S h i ' i t e p r e c e p t s was n o n s e n s i c a l and c o n s t i t u t e d the p r i n c i p a l c a u s a l f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the f a l t e r i n g o f the r e v o l u t i o n . P a r t i c u l a r l y t r o u b l i n g t o r a n k i n g o f f i c i a l s o f the I s l a m i c C a l l , i n c l u d i n g Murtada a l A s k a r i , who was one o f t h e f o u n d i n g members o f the g r o u p , was t h e concept o f r u l e by c h i e f c l e r i c . 1 9 O v e r a l l , the o b s e r v a t i o n s o f the K h o m e i n i s t s ' shor tcomings s e r v e d t o r e i n f o r c e t h e b e l i e f t h a t a t t e m p t i n g t o implement a w h o l l y t h e o c r a t i c system o f government i n a d e v e l o p i n g s t a t e was u n t e n a b l e , and the I s l a m i c C a l l ' s c a d r e became i n c r e a s i n g l y u n r e s e r v e d i n t h e i r d e n u n c i a t i o n s o f the r u l i n g I r a n i a n c l e r g y . A n d , t h e r e i s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t o sugges t t h a t Baghdad gave ample c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o the downturn i n the r e l a t i o n s between the I s l a m i c C a l l and the K h o m e i n i i t e regime when e s t i m a t i n g the l i k e l i h o o d o f a surge o f S h i ' i t e t r a d i t i o n a l i s m i n I r a q . Beyond the ranks o f the m i l i t a n t S h i ' i t e movements, and among t h e m a j o r i t y o f I r a q ' s S h i a s , the p r o s p e c t o f a t t a c h i n g a more i m p o r t a n t , s o c i e t a l r o l e t o I s l am s t i r r e d l i t t l e e n t h u s i a s m , and t h i s u n r e c e p t i v i t y l a r g e l y stemmed from t h e generous l e v e l o f s o c i a l spend ing by the c e n t r a l government. S i n c e coming t o power, the B a a t h i s t s , t h r o u g h t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f an e x t e n s i v e and v i a b l e s o c i a l sys tem, which has a f f o r d e d the p o p u l a c e numerous p r i v i l e g e s and a m e n i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g s u b s i d i z e d f o o d , h e a l t h c a r e , h o u s i n g , and e d u c a t i o n , as w e l l as p r o v i d i n g a h i g h l e v e l o f employment, have s u c c e s s f u l l y m o l l i f i e d the S h i ' i t e m a j o r i t y . In a d d i t i o n , i n the a f t e r m a t h o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , Saddam H u s s e i n under took measures t o f u r t h e r p l a c a t e t h e n a t i o n ' s S h i a s , which c o n s i s t e d m a i n l y o f the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f mosques and r e l i g i o u s s h r i n e s and t h e h o l d i n g o f numerous ceremonies i n commemoration o f S h i * i t e h o l y d a y s . Baghdad's e f f o r t s s e r v e d t o b o l s t e r the p o p u l a r image o f H u s s e i n , w h i l e e a r n i n g the r e s p e c t and s u p p o r t o f S h a i k h A l i a l - S a g h i r and S h a i k h A l i K a s h i f a l - G h i t a , two preeminent churchmen based i n N a j a f . 2 0 A g a i n , t h i s f a c t o r was l a r g e l y o v e r l o o k e d by the B a a t h i s t s . The s t a r k c o n t r a s t between the l o t o f I r a q i and I r a n i a n S h i a s c o n s t i t u t e d a major f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the g e n e r a l l y low l e v e l o f a p p e a l f o r t r a d i t i o n a l S h i ' i s m w i t h i n I r a q . S i m p l y p u t , the former were not s u b j e c t e d t o the s q u a l i d e x i s t e n c e o f the l a t t e r . By and l a r g e , the adverse r a m i f i c a t i o n s upon the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the S u n n i - dominated Baath regime and the S h i ' i t e m a j o r i t y , which stemmed from the a n t i - B a a t h campaign conducted by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s , were n e g l i g i b l e . 2 1 Beyond s p o r a d i c d e m o n s t r a t i o n s i n s u p p o r t o f t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n , which o c c u r r e d t h r o u g h o u t 1979 and 1980 i n v a r i o u s S h i ' i t e h o l y c e n t e r s i n s o u t h e a s t e r n I r a q , t h e e f f o r t s by t h e I r a n i a n z e a l o t s t o f o s t e r l a r g e - s c a l e u n r e s t among I r a q ' s S h i a s were l a r g e l y u n s u c c e s s f u l . In o v e r a l l t e r m s , the B a a t h i s t s ' i n c e n t i v e f o r a t t e m p t i n g a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e a g a i n s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n t h a t stemmed from a v e r s i o n t o S h i ' i t e r e a c t i o n , was l a r g e l y grounded on m i s p e r c e p t i o n and o v e r r e a c t i o n . C o n c l u s i o n T h i s c h a p t e r c o n c l u d e s the e x a m i n a t i o n o f I r a q ' s inducements f o r u n d e r t a k i n g a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k a g a i n s t t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . In the i n i t i a l s e c t i o n i t was argued t h a t a p r e d i s p o s i t i o n f o r a g g r e s s i o n stemming from a l o n g h i s t o r y o f b i t t e r w r a n g l i n g w i t h I r a n c o n s t i t u t e d an i m p o r t a n t component o f t h e B a a t h i s t s ' i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e . Two major e lements u n d e r l y i n g t h e h i s t o r y o f i n t e r s t a t e f r i c t i o n between I r a q and I r a n were i d e n t i f i e d : T e h e r a n ' s open s u p p o r t f o r I r a q i Kurds and S h i a s i n t h e i r s t r u g g l e a g a i n s t the B a a t h i s t s ' m o n o p o l i z a t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l power; and , Baghdad and T e h e r a n ' s ques t f o r r e g i o n a l supremacy. P r o c e e d i n g from these o b s e r v a t i o n s , i t can be g e n e r a l l y p o s i t e d t h a t , a l t h o u g h a h i s t o r y o f s t r a i n e d r e l a t i o n s between an a g g r e s s o r and a t a r g e t s t a t e i s not an a u t o m a t i c c a t a l y s t t o t h e onse t o f war, such a c o n d i t i o n can augment t h e f o r m e r ' s i n c e n t i v e s t o at tempt t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e the l a t t e r . An a d d i t i o n a l , major p o i n t r a i s e d i n C h a p t e r Three was t h a t t h e Baath e l i t e en joyed a h i g h l e v e l o f consensus r e g a r d i n g t h e n e c e s s i t y o f m i l i t a r i l y c o n f r o n t i n g r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . The d i s i n c e n t i v e s m i l i t a t i n g a g a i n s t c a r r y i n g out a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k , and c o n v e r s e l y , t h e e x t e n t o f a s s e n t i n Baghdad f o r d o i n g so , were s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by the n a t i o n ' s p o l i t i c a l ambient . More c l e a r l y , t h e m o n o c r a t i c n a t u r e o f the I r a q i p o l i t y s e r v e d t o m i t i g a t e d i s i n c l i n a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the p l a n n e d i n r o a d W h i l e r e i n f o r c i n g concordance among the r u l i n g e l i t e f o r embarking on such an a d v e n t u r e . A nexus between the s t r e n g t h and u n a n i m i t y o f the c e n t r a l regime and the l i k e l i h o o d t o mount a b i d f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e can be i n f e r r e d . O v e r a l l , s i m i l a r t o H i t l e r , immedia te ly p r i o r t o commencing O p e r a t i o n B a r b a r o s s a , Saddam H u s s e i n e x e r c i s e d a b s o l u t e c o n t r o l over m i l i t a r y and p o l i t i c a l power and was no t i n h i b i t e d by o p p o s i n g s o u r c e s o f a u t h o r i t y . L a s t l y , w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e degree t o which the Baath e l i t e ' s a p p r a i s a l s and c a l c u l a t i o n s were p r e d i c a t e d on p r e c i s e v a l u a t i o n s , r a t h e r t h a n o v e r e s t i m a t i o n s and miscomprehens ion , i t i s not u n r e a s o n a b l e t o m a i n t a i n t h a t , o v e r a l l , the c o n c l u s i o n reached by Baghdad t h a t t h e v a r i o u s inducements and p r e d i s p o s i t i o n s combined t o c o n s t i t u t e a s t r o n g i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e t o under take a m i l i t a r y campaign was based on a l a r g e l y f a c t u a l assessment . However, one n o t a b l e e r r o r i n the B a a t h i s t s ' c o n s i d e r a t i o n s was i d e n t i f i e d : the b e l i e f t h a t the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n would f o s t e r an augmentat ion o f S h i ' i t e f u n d a m e n t a l i s t z e a l . By and l a r g e , t h e I r a q i l e a d e r s h i p f a i l e d t o a t t a c h s u f f i c i e n t importance t o the v e n e r a b l e maxim t h a t r e v o l u t i o n s a r e not s i m p l e commodit ies e a s i l y "exported" from one s t a t e t o a n o t h e r . R e a l i s t i c a l l y , t h e r e was no r e a l , imminent danger t h a t I r a q ' s S h i a s would respond t o K h o m e i n i ' s f r e q u e n t i n v o c a t i o n s by r i s i n g up and sweeping the B a a t h i s t s from power and , on t h i s s c o r e , Baghdad o v e r r e a c t e d . 98 CHAPTER I I I NOTES 1 D a n i e l P i p e s , "A B o r d e r A d r i f t : O r i g i n s o f t h e C o n f l i c t , " i n The I r a n - I r a q War: New Weapons. O l d C o n f l i c t s , e d . S h i r i n T a h i r - K h e l i and Shaheen A y u b i (New Y o r k : P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1983) , p . 9 . 2 H a n n a B a t a t u , " S h i ' i O r g a n i z a t i o n s i n I r a q : A l - Da'wah a l - I s l a m i y a h and a l - M u j a h i d i n , " i n S h i ' i s m and S o c i a l P r o t e s t . e d . J u a n R . I . C o l e and N i k k i R. Keddie (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1986), p . 189. 3 I b i d . , p . 191. 4 I b i d . , p . 194. 5 S a ' a d N . Jawad, "The K u r d i s h Problem i n I r a q , " i n The I n t e g r a t i o n o f Modern I r a q , e d . Abbas K e l i d a r (London: Croom Helm, L t d . , 1979), p . 171. 6 S h a r i f M. S h u j a , " I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n and I t s Impact on I r a q , " I s l a m i c S t u d i e s : J o u r n a l o f the I s l a m i c R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e 3 (Autumn 1980):219. 7 C l a u d i a W r i g h t , "Iraq—New Power i n the M i d d l e E a s t , " F o r e i g n A f f a i r s 2 (Winter 1979-1980):261. 8 S h u j a , p . 222. 9 I b i d . 1 0 P i p e s , p . 18. ^ R i c h a r d W. B u l l i e t , "Time, P e r c e p t i o n s , and C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , " i n The I r a n - I r a q War: O l d C o n f l i c t s . New Weapons, e d . Thomas N a f f (Washington, D . C : N a t i o n a l Defense U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1985), p . 71. 1 2 I b i d . , p . 73. 1 3 P i p e s , p . 17. 1 4 I b i d . 1 5 S h u j a , p . 224. 1 6 I b i d . 99 1 7 C l a u d i a W r i g h t , "Behind I r a q ' s B o l d B i d , " The New Y o r k Times M a g a z i n e . 26 October 1980, p . 111. 1 8 E q b a l Ahmad, "War o f t h e R e n t i e r S t a t e s , " Khamsin: J o u r n a l o f the R e v o l u t i o n a r y S o c i a l i s t s o f the M i d d l e E a s t 12 (September 1986):49 . 19 B a t a t u , p . 191. 2 0 I b i d . , p . 196. 2 1 G o d f r e y J a n s e n , "Dawn E i g h t Shakes t h e G u l f , " M i d d l e E a s t I n t e r n a t i o n a l 269 (February 1986) :3 . CHAPTER IV IRAQ'S PERCEPTIONS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRATEGICALLY SURPRISING REVOLUTIONARY IRAN The f o r e g o i n g a n a l y s i s o f Baghdad's i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e as one p r i n c i p a l e lement a c t u a t i n g i t s sudden o n s l a u g h t a g a i n s t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c demonstrates the c o m p l e x i t y o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g f o r mounting an e f f o r t a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . The o v e r r i d i n g o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o examine the o b s e r v a t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y t h a t animated t h e B a a t h i s t s ' c o n c l u s i o n t h a t a s u r p r i s e s a l l y a g a i n s t K h o m e i n i ' s I r a n was f e a s i b l e . T h i s i n q u i r y w i l l be conducted on t h e b a s i s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c o u r s e . F i r s t , the B a a t h i s t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y based on o b s e r v a t i o n s o f q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e a s p e c t s o f I r a q ' s m i l i t a r y f i g h t i n g and command c a p a b i l i t y , as w e l l as the c a p a c i t y t o m a i n t a i n s e c r e c y and employ d e c e p t i o n , a r e examined. Second, Baghdad's p e r c e i v e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s e f f e c t e d by a waning o f I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y power, as w e l l as by economic d i s l o c a t i o n and p o l i t i c a l s t r i f e , a r e d i s c u s s e d . T h i r d , a f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s o f t h e a u t h o r i t a r i a n and u n p l u r a l i s t i c n a t u r e o f the I r a q i p o l i t y w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n o r d e r t o show t h a t the Baath r e g i m e ' s l e v e l o f o p p o r t u n i t y was not d i m i n i s h e d by f r i c t i o n w i t h 100 101 o p p o s i t i o n p o l i t i c a l g r o u p s . F o u r t h , as t h e shor tcomings i n Baghdad's m o t i v a t i o n a l p e r c e p t i o n s were o u t l i n e d i n the p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r , i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t h a t t h e e r r o r s i n h e r e n t i n t h e B a a t h i s t s ' o p p o r t u n i s t i c v a l u a t i o n s be i d e n t i f i e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . And l a s t , the major f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e d the t i m i n g o f the i n r o a d a r e a n a l y z e d . P e r c e p t i o n s o f O p p o r t u n i t y Engendered by Q u a n t i t a t i v e and Q u a l i t a t i v e I n d i c e s o f M i l i t a r y Power I n t h e B a a t h i s t s ' c a l c u l u s o f the degree o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a t t a i n i n g t h e i r d e f e n s i v e and a g g r e s s i v e o b j e c t i v e s t h r o u g h a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k , c o n s i d e r a b l e importance was a t t a c h e d t o q u a n t i t a t i v e i n d i c a t o r s o f m i l i t a r y power, p r i n c i p a l l y the t o t a l number o f I r a q i combatants and armored s u p p o r t v e h i c l e s , as w e l l as the number o f combat a i r c r a f t . F u r t h e r m o r e , the h i g h l y c e n t r a l i z e d n a t u r e o f the I r a q i m i l i t a r y command, over which the Baath e l i t e e x e r t e d supreme a u t h o r i t y , s e r v e d t o r e i n f o r c e Baghdad's c o n f i d e n c e t h a t the r e q u i s i t e l e v e l o f s e c r e c y needed t o a v e r t the a f f o r d i n g o f advanced warn ing o f t h e impending a t t a c k t o t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s l e a d e r s h i p c o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d . In J a n u a r y o f 1978, t h e r e was a c o n s i d e r a b l e q u a n t i t a t i v e d i s p a r i t y between the r e g u l a r I r a q i and I r a n i a n a r m i e s ; the f o r m e r ' s compr i sed some 160,000 combatants , w h i l e t h e l a t t e r ' s numbered a p p r o x i m a t e l y 285,000. However, t h e r e was a rough p a r i t y i n terms o f the number o f the 102 f o l l o w i n g t y p e s o f armaments: n i n e t e e n hundred t a n k s f o r I r a q , compared t o 1,875 f o r I r a n ; i n terms o f a r t i l l e r y p i e c e s , I r a q had a c q u i r e d 930 w h i l e I r a n p o s s e s s e d 1,532; and , by t h i s j u n c t u r e , I r a q had amassed a f l e e t o f f i f t e e n - hundred armored combat v e h i c l e s , w h i l e I r a n ' s complement c o m p r i s e d 8 2 5 . 1 In an e f f o r t t o d i m i n i s h I r a n ' s s u p e r i o r i t y i n c o n v e n t i o n a l ground f o r c e s , d u r i n g the n ine teen-month p e r i o d between t h e Shah ' s d o w n f a l l and the o u t b r e a k o f war, the B a a t h i s t s i n c r e a s e d the number o f a c t i v e duty t r o o p s i n the I r a q i army t o 200,000, w h i l e a c q u i r i n g an a d d i t i o n a l n i n e hundred t a n k s , i n c l u d i n g S o v i e t T - 6 2 s , T - 7 2 s , and the F r e n c h AMX-3 0. In a d d i t i o n , I r a q took d e l i v e r y o f e i g h t hundred more armored f i g h t i n g v e h i c l e s , i n c l u d i n g advanced S p a n i s h and F r e n c h models , as w e l l as one hundred a r t i l l e r y p i e c e s o f v a r i o u s c a l i b r e . 2 Beyond expanding t h e r a n k s o f t h e r e g u l a r army, Baghdad f u r t h e r b o l s t e r e d I r a q ' s ground f o r c e s i n t h i s p e r i o d by m o d e r n i z i n g the weaponry and t r a i n i n g o f the P e o p l e ' s Army, a f o r c e c o m p r i s i n g some 250,000 m i l i t i a men o r g a n i z e d i n t o l o c a l u n i t s . By and l a r g e , based on o b s e r v a t i o n s o f the n a r r o w i n g o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s q u a n t i t a t i v e advantage i n ground f o r c e s , Saddam H u s s e i n was c o n f i d e n t t h a t I r a q posses sed an adequate i n f a n t r y and armored c a p a b i l i t y t o l a u n c h a s u c c e s s f u l i n r o a d . 103 I n terms o f a i r power, by mid-1980 , I r a q had a c q u i r e d 339 w a r p l a n e s , which were d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e i n t e r c e p t o r s q u a d r o n s , two bomber squadrons , and t w e l v e f i g h t e r - b o m b e r w i n g s . 3 I r a q ' s complement o f combat a i r c r a f t l a r g e l y c o n s i s t e d o f S o v i e t - m a n u f a c t u r e d models , i n c l u d i n g t h e MIG-23 , T U - 2 2 , and SU-7B. But b e g i n n i n g i n 1977, I r a q began t o p u r c h a s e more advanced F r e n c h a i r c r a f t , m a i n l y D e l t a - 2 0 0 0 s and t h e F - l M i r a g e equ ipped w i t h s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t M a t r a Super-530 m i s s i l e s . In a d d i t i o n t o f i x e d - w i n g a i r c r a f t , t h e B a a t h i s t s had assembled a s i z a b l e f l e e t o f some 286 combat h e l i c o p t e r s w h i c h , i n a d d i t i o n t o the p o w e r f u l S o v i e t MI-8s and M I - 2 4 s , i n c l u d e d F r e n c h A l o u e t t e I l l s and Super F r e l o n s , as w e l l as B r i t i s h Pumas and G a z e l l e s . O v e r a l l , Baghdad was c e r t a i n t h a t the I r a q i a i r f o r c e was p o w e r f u l enough t o overwhelm I r a n i a n a i r de fenses i n an u n a n t i c i p a t e d s t r i k e . Beyond c i t i n g the B a a t h i s t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y which r e s t e d upon b a s i c c a t e g o r i e s o f m i l i t a r y power, i t i s o f e q u a l importance t o d i s c u s s I r a q ' s c a p a b i l i t y t o conduct p l a n n i n g and p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r the i n c u r s i o n i n t o I r a n i n s e c r e c y , as w e l l as the a b i l i t y t o a d r o i t l y use d e c e p t i o n . Baghdad's prowess , w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e s e i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e s , can be m a i n l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the f a c t t h a t the n a t i o n ' s m i l i t a r y command was under t h e n e a r l y e x c l u s i v e sway o f Saddam H u s s e i n and a few t r u s t w o r t h y c o h o r t s . H u s s e i n e x e r c i s e d u l t i m a t e c o n t r o l o v e r I r a q ' s 104 m i l i t a r y f o r c e s t h r o u g h h i s p o s i t i o n as c o m m a n d e r - i n - c h i e f , and t h r o u g h h i s mastery o v e r t h e R e v o l u t i o n a r y Command C o u n c i l , the r a n k s o f which i n c l u d e d t h e s e n i o r o f f i c e r s o f the army, a i r f o r c e , and n a v y . 4 Moreover , the upper e c h e l o n o f t h e I r a q i m i l i t a r y command was s t a f f e d by a c o h e s i v e c l i q u e o f r a n k i n g o f f i c e r s who, l i k e Saddam H u s s e i n , beckoned from the n o r t h e r n v i l l a g e o f T a k r i t , and who demonstrated u n q u a l i f i e d l o y a l t y t o the I r a q i l e a d e r . 5 In l i n e w i t h t h e o b j e c t i v e o f cement ing B a a t h i s t supremacy o v e r the armed f o r c e s , a c t i v e invo lvement i n p o l i t i c a l a f f a i r s by b o t h o f f i c e r s and e n l i s t e d men had been o f f i c i a l l y p r o s c r i b e d w i t h a d e c r e e promulgated by t h e R e v o l u t i o n a r y Command C o u n c i l . In e s sence , t h i s e d i c t r e n d e r e d any I r a q i c i t i z e n who had been a member o f any p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n o t h e r t h a n t h e Baath P a r t y s i n c e 1968 i n e l i g i b l e f o r m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e , 6 and observance o f t h i s s t a t u t e was s t r i c t l y e n f o r c e d w i t h t r a n s g r e s s i o n s p u n i s h a b l e by d e a t h . A c c o r d i n g l y , by mid-1980, the Baath e l i t e was a b l e t o make t h e n e c e s s a r y p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r the conquest o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , u n i n h i b i t e d by o b j e c t i o n s from p r o f e s s i o n a l m i l i t a r y commanders. In s h o r t , by s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i m i n i s h i n g t h e number o f p a r t i c i p a n t s d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n the p l a n n i n g o f the o n s l a u g h t , the B a a t h i s t s were a b l e t o p r e s e r v e r i g i d s e c r e c y and t h i s b o l s t e r e d I r a q ' s o p p o r t u n i t y f o r r e a l i z i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . 105 I n a d d i t i o n t o m a i n t a i n i n g a h i g h l e v e l o f s e c r e c y , the Baath e l i t e was a l s o i n a s u i t a b l e p o s i t i o n t o p r a c t i c e d e c e p t i o n , m a i n l y t h r o u g h t h e d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f d i s i n f o r m a t i o n v i s - a - v i s the media , which i s under r i g i d s t a t e c o n t r o l . Wi th r e g a r d t o p r i n t e d i n f o r m a t i o n , s p e c i f i c a l l y newspapers , s i n c e 1967, t h e P r e s s and P r i n t i n g O r g a n i z a t i o n , the membership o f which c o n s i s t s e x c l u s i v e l y o f government a p p o i n t e e s , and the M i n i s t r y o f C u l t u r e and Guidance have c o n t r o l l e d the p r i n t i n g o f I r a q ' s f o u r d a i l y news p u b l i c a t i o n s . L i k e w i s e , the I r a q i News Agency (INA) i s a l s o under t h e d i r e c t c o n t r o l o f Baghdad. A n d , t h e I r a q i B r o a d c a s t i n g and T e l e v i s i o n E s t a b l i s h m e n t o v e r s e e s t h e c o n t e n t o f a l l r a d i o and t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t s . P r o c e e d i n g from t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s , i t can be i n d u c e d t h a t the B a a t h i s t s had f r e e r e i g n t o use the n a t i o n ' s media s o u r c e s as a medium t h r o u g h which t o d i s i n f o r m r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , thus a d d i n g t o the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a t t a i n i n g s t r a t e g i c shock . - O p p o r t u n i t y P r e d i c a t e d upon O b s e r v a t i o n s o f I r a n i a n V u l n e r a b i l i t y Engendered by a R e d u c t i o n o f t h e S i z e o f t h e N a t i o n ' s Armed F o r c e s , Economic D i s l o c a t i o n , and I n t e r n a l P o l i t i c a l F r a g m e n t a t i o n B e s i d e s i d e n t i f y i n g the i m p o r t a n t q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s a t the d i s p o s a l o f the B a a t h i s t s , a s t u d y o f I r a q ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e must a l s o addres s the p e r c e i v e d , major d e f i c i e n c i e s which r e n d e r e d t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c v u l n e r a b l e t o a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . A major 106 c o n s i d e r a t i o n u n d e r l y i n g Baghdad's sense o f o p p o r t u n i t y was t h e s h a r p t r i m m i n g o f t h e ranks o f t h e v a r i o u s branches o f the I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y f o l l o w i n g the onse t o f the r e v o l u t i o n . Upon coming t o power, the c l e r i c a l regime s e t about t o g r e a t l y d i m i n i s h t h e s i z e o f t h e l a r g e and p o w e r f u l m i l i t a r y e s t a b l i s h m e n t founded by the Shah. The impetus f o r t h i s d e s i g n was grounded on two p r i n c i p a l f a c t o r s : a f e a r o f c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y m a c h i n a t i o n s by the armed f o r c e s and a d e s i r e t o g r e a t l y reduce de fense e x p e n d i t u r e s . Indeed , the P a h l a v i r e g i m e ' s o b s e s s i o n w i t h the a c q u i s i t i o n o f e x p e n s i v e , t e c h n i c a l l y advanced armaments, a l o n g w i t h an a t t e n d a n t l a c k o f r e g a r d f o r the f i n a n c i a l p l i g h t o f I r a n ' s peasant masses , g r e a t l y c o n t r i b u t e d t o the h e i g h t e n i n g o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y f e r v o r d u r i n g t h e 1970s. F o r example, i n the p e r i o d from 1972 t o 1978, Teheran o u t l a y e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y t e n b i l l i o n d o l l a r s f o r m i l i t a r y hardware w h i c h , t o K h o m e i n i , r e p r e s e n t e d a r e p r e h e n s i b l e s q u a n d e r i n g o f n a t i o n a l w e a l t h t h a t was "poisonous t o the freedom o f I r a n . " 7 Moreover , t h e K h o m e i n i s t s ' bent on weakening the m i l i t a r y machine assembled by t h e Shah p a r t i a l l y stemmed from a c o g n i z a n c e o f t h e r o l e o f the armed f o r c e s i n b l o o d i l y r e p r e s s i n g the a s p i r a t i o n s o f the I r a n i a n p e o p l e . In consonance w i t h t h e s h i f t i n T e h e r a n ' s m i l i t a r y p o l i c y , t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y M i n i s t e r o f Defense , A d m i r a l Ahmad M a d a n i , h e l d on 7 March 1979, t h a t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c was j e t t i s o n i n g t h e m o n a r c h i a l r e g i m e ' s emphasis on " p o s s e s s i n g 107 t h e most advanced weapons and b i g g e s t b a s e s . " 8 S h o r t l y a f t e r w a r d , Prime M i n i s t e r Bazargan announced t h a t t h e new n a t i o n a l budget i n c o r p o r a t e d a s i x t y p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n de fense s p e n d i n g . And , on 9 A u g u s t , i t was d i s c l o s e d t h a t o r d e r s f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y n i n e b i l l i o n d o l l a r s worth o f U . S . manufac tured armaments and m u n i t i o n s were b e i n g c a n c e l l e d . Accompanying t h i s d e c i s i o n was t h e e x p u l s i o n o f some t e n thousand Amer ican m i l i t a r y a d v i s e r s and t e c h n i c i a n s , which s e r v e d t o engender s e v e r e problems i n o p e r a t i n g and m a i n t a i n i n g t h e v a s t a r r a y o f c o m p l i c a t e d weapon systems p u r c h a s e d d u r i n g the Shah ' s t e n u r e . 9 These developments were welcomed i n Baghdad and c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e B a a t h i s t s * growing c o n f i d e n c e i n the f e a s i b i l i t y o f an i n c u r s i o n a g a i n s t I r a n . W i t h r e g a r d t o the i n d i v i d u a l branches o f the m i l i t a r y , t h e I r a n i a n army bore the b r u n t o f the K h o m e i n i s t s * w r a t h ; i n March o f 1979, the r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime announced t h a t the number o f army t r o o p s would be r e d u c e d from 285,000 t o 100,000. Beyond t r o o p l e v e l r e d u c t i o n s , t h e army' s c a p a b i l i t y was f u r t h e r e n f e e b l e d by an i n a d e q u a t e l e v e l o f t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t i s e and a s h o r t a g e o f v i t a l s p a r e p a r t s f o r i t s i n t r i c a t e weaponry. F o r example, w i t h i n a s h o r t p e r i o d o f t i m e , a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f I r a n ' s complement o f B r i t i s h C h i e f t a i n tanks was i n v a r y i n g s t a t e s o f d i s r e p a i r , w h i l e t h e army's f l e e t o f combat h e l i c o p t e r s , which numbered 650 i n J a n u a r y o f 1978, had 108 f a l l e n t o an o p e r a t i o n a l l e v e l o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y f i f t e e n p e r c e n t . 1 0 By September o f 1980, I r a q ' s 200 ,000-man-s trong army was f a c i n g a n u m e r i c a l l y i n f e r i o r I r a n i a n army, t h e ranks o f which had a c t u a l l y been reduced t o 150,000 combatants s u p p o r t e d by a p p r o x i m a t e l y 850 f u n c t i o n i n g t a n k s , f i v e hundred a r t i l l e r y p i e c e s , and 850 armored f i g h t i n g v e h i c l e s . 1 1 O v e r a l l , i n s t r i c t l y q u a n t i t a t i v e t e r m s , the I r a q i army had come t o w i e l d a n o t a b l e advantage over the army o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , and t h i s f a c t o r weighed h e a v i l y i n t h e B a a t h i s t s ' e s t i m a t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y . Beyond the army, the o p e r a t i o n a l r e a d i n e s s o f the I r a n i a n a i r f o r c e was a l s o undermined. I t has been e s t i m a t e d t h a t i n t h e i n i t i a l months f o l l o w i n g the d e p o s a l o f t h e P a h l a v i reg ime , some twenty thousand a i r men d e s e r t e d . The adverse r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f t h i s development upon I r a n i a n a i r power were f u r t h e r compounded by a g r o u n d i n g o f a p o r t i o n o f the n a t i o n ' s A m e r i c a n - p r o d u c e d F - 4 , F - 5 , and F-14 f i g h t e r a i r c r a f t , which l a r g e l y a r o s e due t o a breakdown i n t h e maintenance sys tem. A n d , the d i f f i c u l t y and g r e a t expense i n p r o p e r l y upkeep ing such complex a i r c r a f t l e d Teheran t o at tempt t o s e l l a number o f t h e s e w a r p l a n e s . On 3 August 1979, F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Ebrahim Y a z d i announced t h a t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c was ready t o c o n s i d e r s e r i o u s o f f e r s t o purchase i t s f l e e t o f F - 1 4 s , 109 which were deemed t o be w h o l l y s u p e r f l u o u s f o r t h e n a t i o n ' s a c t u a l de fense r e q u i r e m e n t s . I n mid-1980 , I r a q i m i l i t a r y i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s t s were e s t i m a t i n g t h a t l e s s t h a n two hundred o f I r a n ' s warp lanes were ready t o engage i n c o m b a t . 1 2 Baghdad viewed the impairment o f the f o r m i d a b l e a i r f o r c e e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e Shah i n p o s i t i v e t e r m s . In s h o r t , p r o c e e d i n g from a c o g n i z a n c e o f t h e v a r i o u s problems hampering the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s a i r c a p a b i l i t y , the Baath e l i t e c o n c l u d e d t h a t i n e x e c u t i n g t h e i n v a s i o n , I r a q i ground f o r c e s would encounter o n l y l i g h t r e s i s t a n c e from I r a n i a n w a r p l a n e s . A waning o f I r a n i a n n a v a l power f u r t h e r h e i g h t e n e d t h e B a a t h i s t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y . S h o r t l y a f t e r coming t o power, the K h o m e i n i i t e regime o r d e r e d the h a l t i n c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the l a r g e n a v a l y a r d a t Chah B a h a r , a d e c i s i o n t h a t was i n l i n e w i t h the s t a t e d p o l i c y end o f abandoning the hegemonica l r o l e p l a y e d by t h e P a h l a v i a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , I r a n ' s f l o t i l l a o f w a r s h i p s was b e s e t by s u p p o r t prob lems; on 1 December 1979, the K u w a i t i newspaper, A l Waton, m a i n t a i n e d t h a t the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s navy had " l o s t h a l f i t s o p e r a t i o n a l c a p a b i l i t y . " 1 3 Baghdad was f u r t h e r encouraged by t h e i n a b i l i t y o f many I r a n i a n n a v a l v e s s e l s , due t o m e c h a n i c a l breakdown, t o complete l a r g e - s c a l e e x e r c i s e s conducted i n t h e P e r s i a n G u l f , G u l f o f Oman, and n o r t h e r n A r a b i a n Sea i n A p r i l o f 1980. By and l a r g e , Saddam H u s s e i n p e r c e i v e d the l a c k l u s t e r performance o f the I r a n i a n n a v a l f o r c e s as s i g n i f y i n g a l e s s e n i n g o f t h e d i f f i c u l t y i n f o r c i b l y e s t a b l i s h i n g I r a q i dominion o v e r Abu Musa and the G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs , one o f the p r i m a r y d e s i g n s t o be r e a l i z e d v i s - a - v i s the s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . B e s i d e s c a l c u l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the l a p s e i n I r a n ' s m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y , the I r a q i l e a d e r s h i p ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e f o r r e a l i z i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e was r e i n f o r c e d by o b s e r v a t i o n s o f the s e v e r e economic d i s l o c a t i o n which d e v e l o p e d i n t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . A number o f economic problems t h a t had o r i g i n a t e d d u r i n g t h e Shah ' s r e i g n became more a c u t e f o l l o w i n g the onse t o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n . F o r example, the n a t i o n a l l e v e l o f unemployment, which had s t o o d a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f t h e I r a n i a n l a b o r f o r c e i n J a n u a r y o f 1978, burgeoned t o a c r i p p l i n g f o r t y - f i v e p e r c e n t by J a n u a r y o f 1 9 8 0 . 1 4 The upsurge i n unemployment was m a i n l y e f f e c t e d by the f o l l o w i n g deve lopments : t h e sudden h a l t i n g o f numerous, l a r g e - s c a l e c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o j e c t s i n i t i a t e d by the Shah; t h e c a n c e l l a t i o n . o f numerous de fense c o n t r a c t s ; and a drop i n p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t i o n . By O c t o b e r o f 1979, d e m o n s t r a t i o n s i n p r o t e s t o f t h e r i s i n g l e v e l o f unemployment were o c c u r r i n g on a r e g u l a r b a s i s . The d e s i g n s o f the c l e r i c a l regime r e g a r d i n g t h e r e s t r u c t u r i n g o f the economy c o n t r i b u t e d h e a v i l y t o the s p i r a l i n g d i s l o c a t i o n . Khomeini championed a number o f I l l p o p u l i s t i c economic i d e a s , i n c l u d i n g a major r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w e a l t h , as w e l l as an e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f s t r i c t l i m i t a t i o n s on t h e ownership o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y , b o t h o f which were i n l i n e w i t h the i m p e r a t i v e o f i m p r o v i n g t h e q u a l i t y o f l i f e f o r I r a n ' s i n d i g e n t m a s s e s . 1 5 C e n t r a l t o the c l e r i c ' s r e v o l u t i o n a r y economic agenda was an a p p l i c a t i o n o f the S h i ' i t e p r i n c i p l e o f d e f e n d i n g t h e "downtrodden" [mustaz 'a feen] w h i c h , a c c o r d i n g t o K h o m e i n i , n e c e s s i t a t e d an e l i m i n a t i o n o f the s q u a l i d manner o f e x i s t e n c e brooked by I r a n i a n p e a s a n t s who, d u r i n g the f i n a l y e a r s o f the m o n a r c h i a l epoch , had been a l l u d e d t o by the e l i t e as " t h i r t y m i l l i o n d o n k e y s . " 1 6 Toward r e a l i z i n g the o b j e c t i v e o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a more e q u i t a b l e economic sys tem, the c l e r i c a l regime i n i t i a t e d a program t o n a t i o n a l i z e key i n d u s t r i a l and f i n a n c i a l e n t e r p r i s e s . I t was the p o s i t i o n o f the churchmen t h a t the l a c k o f i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l development and pandemic p o v e r t y w i t h i n I r a n c o u l d be m a i n l y a s c r i b e d t o the former r o y a l i s t r e g i m e ' s w i l l i n g n e s s t o a l l o w Western powers , p r i n c i p a l l y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and G r e a t B r i t a i n , t o e x p l o i t t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s . In h i s " I s l a m i c Government ," Khomeini m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e West was de termined t o c a p i t a l i z e on I r a n ' s m i n e r a l s and p e t r o l e u m , and t h a t i t was e n d e a v o r i n g t o " t u r n our c o u n t r y i n t o a market f o r t h e i r g o o d s . " 1 7 To the r e v o l u t i o n a r y a u t h o r i t i e s , n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n c o n s t i t u t e d t h e soundes t p r e s c r i p t i o n w i t h which t o remedy I r a n ' s economic overdependence on t h e West . The p e t r o l e u m i n d u s t r y was the f i r s t t o come under s t a t e c o n t r o l and , i n June o f 1979, a l l banks were n a t i o n a l i z e d . The K h o m e i n i s t s e v i d e n c e d t h e i r d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o e s t a b l i s h c e n t r a l c o n t r o l o v e r t r a d i t i o n a l l y e x p l o i t a t i v e i n d u s t r i e s by i n c l u d i n g a n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n c l a u s e i n the new c o n s t i t u t i o n o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , which was r a t i f i e d t h r o u g h a n a t i o n a l re ferendum conducted on 14 December 1979: W i t h t h e a p p r o v a l o f P a r l i a m e n t c e r t a i n s e c t o r s o f i n d u s t r y , commerce, and a g r i c u l t u r e t h a t a r e b e i n g managed a g a i n s t t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t may be n a t i o n a l i z e d . 1 8 S i m i l a r t o t h e n e g a t i v e Western r e a c t i o n t o the e f f o r t s o f the p o p u l a r regime o f Mohammed Mossadeq t o d i m i n i s h e x t e r n a l c o n t r o l over I r a n ' s n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y p e t r o l e u m and n a t u r a l gas , i n t h e e a r l y 1950s, the K h o m e i n i i t e government ' s n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n p l a n s e l i c i t e d s t r o n g p r o t e s t i n Washington , Tokyo , and v a r i o u s wes tern European c a p i t a l s , and was met w i t h a number o f r e t a l i a t o r y measures , i n c l u d i n g p u n i t i v e s a n c t i o n s , which s e r v e d t o f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e T e h e r a n ' s e f f o r t s toward economic r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and deve lopment . The U n i t e d S t a t e s l e d the i n t e r n a t i o n a l e f f o r t t o e c o n o m i c a l l y p u n i s h r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . An embargo on the p u r c h a s e o f I r a n i a n p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s was imposed by Washington i n mid-1979 and , by mid-1980, a number o f o t h e r i n d u s t r i a l i z e d powers, i n c l u d i n g J a p a n , G r e a t B r i t a i n , and West Germany, had a l s o suspended o i l i m p o r t s from the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . In a d d i t i o n t o b o y c o t t i n g I r a n i a n o i l , Wash ington , p a r t l y as a response t o the o v e r r u n n i n g o f the A m e r i c a n Embassy i n Teheran and the s e i z u r e o f a number o f d i p l o m a t s by s t u d e n t s l o y a l t o K h o m e i n i , a t t a c h e d some e i g h t b i l l i o n d o l l a r s o f I r a n i a n a s s e t s d e p o s i t e d i n Amer ican b a n k s . A number o f o t h e r n a t i o n s adopted s i m i l a r measures; on 25 June 1980, F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Qotzbadeh d i s c l o s e d t h a t t h e amount o f I r a n i a n c a p i t a l g a r n i s h e d abroad s t o o d a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y twe lve b i l l i o n d o l l a r s . 1 9 In a d d i t i o n , by mid-1980 , f o r e i g n inves tment i n I r a n had d e c r e a s e d by a s t a g g e r i n g e i g h t y - s e v e n p e r c e n t . 2 0 C o i n c i d i n g w i t h t h i s event was a near complete c e s s a t i o n o f Western c r e d i t and , as a r e s u l t , inves tment i n new i n d u s t r i a l v e n t u r e s dropped by n e a r l y e i g h t y - e i g h t p e r c e n t , which amounted t o a v i r t u a l h a l t o f i n d u s t r i a l growth . The v a r i o u s p u n i t i v e economic measures a p p l i e d by t h e West had a p a r t i c u l a r l y d i s r u p t i v e e f f e c t upon I r a n ' s o i l i n d u s t r y , t h e n a t i o n ' s most i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f income. F o r example, the number o f b a r r e l s o f o i l e x p o r t e d from I r a n ' s l a r g e s t t r a n s s h i p m e n t f a c i l i t y a t K h a r q I s l a n d had dropped t o a mere 500,000 p e r day by May o f 1980, which c o n s t i t u t e d a s t a r k c o n t r a s t t o p r e - r e v o l u t i o n days when some 2.5 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s were l o a d e d t h e r e on a d a i l y b a s i s . O v e r a l l , i n the p e r i o d from J a n u a r y 1979 t o May 1980, the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s t o t a l d a i l y p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t i o n r a t e 114 plummeted from f i v e m i l l i o n t o under one m i l l i o n b a r r e l s . 2 1 The r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime attempted t o o f f s e t the l o s s o f revenue e f f e c t e d by the d i m i n u t i o n i n the d a i l y e x p o r t a t i o n l e v e l by b r e a k i n g w i t h the standard s e t by the O r g a n i z a t i o n o f Petroleum E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s (OPEC) and u n i l a t e r a l l y r a i s i n g the p r i c e o f a b a r r e l o f crude o i l . However, the r i s e i n the c o s t o f an I r a n i a n b a r r e l o f o i l f a i l e d t o y i e l d Teheran any s u b s t a n t i a l f i n a n c i a l advantages, f o r t h i s d e c i s i o n prompted a d d i t i o n a l n a t i o n s t o loo k beyond I r a n f o r a l t e r n a t i v e sources o f petroleum. By and l a r g e , o b s e r v a t i o n s o f the mounting economic problems i n the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , e s p e c i a l l y those a f f e c t i n g the o i l i n d u s t r y , l e d the Baath e l i t e t o b e l i e v e t h a t l o s s o f Khuzestan would g r e a t l y weaken the K h o m e i n i i t e regime. And, t h i s c o n c l u s i o n served t o b o l s t e r the B a a t h i s t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s of o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a t t a i n i n g t h e i r e n t e r p r i s i n g o b j e c t i v e s through a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k focused on southwestern I r a n . A cognizance o f the p o l i t i c a l d i s s e n s i o n f o s t e r e d by the m u l t i t u d e o f i d e o l o g i c a l l y d i s p a r a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s opposed t o the v a l u e s espoused by the e x t r e m i s t , p r o - c l e r i c a l I s l a m i c Republican P a r t y (IRP), which was headed by A y a t o l l a h Mohammed B e h e s t i , c o n s t i t u t e d a f u r t h e r aspect o f the B a a t h i s t s ' o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e . These o p p o s i t i o n groups i n c l u d e d the f o l l o w i n g : the I r a n Freedom Fr o n t , which was l e d by Prime M i n i s t e r Bazargan and which advocated a p o l i t i c a l system founded on a b l e n d i n g o f v a r i o u s p o s i t i v e f e a t u r e s o f I s l a m i c d o c t r i n e and modern d e m o c r a t i c p r i n c i p l e ; 2 2 the N a t i o n a l F r o n t , a l t e r n a t i v e l y known as t h e "Union f o r the N a t i o n a l F r o n t F o r c e , " which was a c o a l i t i o n o f v a r i o u s s e c u l a r f a c t i o n s t h a t b e l i e v e d t h e f u n d a m e n t a l i s t churchmen were moving the n a t i o n "toward a new form o f f a s c i s m ; " 2 3 the N a t i o n a l Democra t i c F r o n t , which s u p p o r t e d the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a system o f government t h a t would s a f e g u a r d b a s i c c i v i l l i b e r t i e s and e f f e c t an improvement i n t h e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s f o r I r a n ' s p e a s a n t r y ; 2 4 t h e pro-Moscow Tudeh P a r t y , l e d by N u r e - D i n K i a n u r i w h i c h , a l b e i t a t t h e o u t s e t o f the r e v o l u t i o n had extended s u p p o r t t o Khomein i and h i s c o l l e a g u e s , was g r a d u a l l y d i s i l l u s i o n e d by the c l e r i c ' s a n t i - S o v i e t b e a r i n g ; the K u r d i s h Democrat i c P a r t y (KDP), which was a v e r s e t o the P e r s i a n n a t i o n a l i s m e x t o l l e d by the m i n i s t e r i a l government; and , l a s t l y , a number o f A r a b n a t i o n a l i s t groups based i n K h u z e s t a n . From t h e Baath e l i t e ' s s t a n d p o i n t , the d i s s e n s i o n t h a t came t o t h e f o r e i n Khuzes tan between the c l e r i c a l a u t h o r i t i e s and t h e e t h n i c A r a b i n d i g e n o u s , which l a r g e l y stemmed from the l a t t e r ' s s t r u g g l e t o s e c u r e l i m i t e d , r e g i o n a l autonomy from T e h e r a n , c o n s t i t u t e d t h e most i m p o r t a n t o f the v a r i o u s c l e a v a g e s p r e v a i l i n g i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . A c c o r d i n g l y , Baghdad sought t o e x a c e r b a t e t h e s t r i f e between t h e K h o m e i n i s t s and the K h u z e s t a n i A r a b s . Pursuant t o t h i s end , which was p r e d i c a t e d on the premise t h a t a Khuzes tan t o r n by i n t e r n a l 116 upheaval would render the t a s k o f c o n d u c t i n g a s u c c e s s f u l , s u r p r i s e i n r o a d f a r l e s s arduous, the B a a t h i s t s attempted t o i n c i t e anti-Khomeini sentiment i n the r e g i o n through the use o f p r o p a g a n d i s t i c r a d i o b r o a d c a s t s e n t i t l e d the "Voice of the M a s s e s , " 2 5 and by extending support t o a number of g u e r r i l l a groups o p e r a t i n g t h e r e . The two p r i n c i p a l i r r e d e n t i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n s which b e n e f i t t e d from I r a q i a s s i s t a n c e were the Al-Ahwaz L i b e r a t i o n F r o n t and the " A r a b i s t a n " F r o n t . In the summer of 1979, Baghdad began t o o f f e r the Khuzestani g u e r r i l l a s i nsurgency t r a i n i n g a t a base w i t h i n p r o x i m i t y t o B a s r a . 2 6 S i m i l a r t o I r a q i Kurds o p e r a t i n g from bases i n northwestern I r a n , Khuzestani Arab f i g h t e r s were a b l e , w i t h I r a q i a s s i s t a n c e , t o c a r r y out c r o s s - f r o n t i e r a t t a c k s upon m i l i t a r y bases and petroleum p r o c e s s i n g f a c i l i t i e s . The Baath regime b e l i e v e d t h a t i n r e t u r n f o r p r o f f e r i n g a c o n s i d e r a b l e l e v e l o f a i d t o the i n s u r g e n t s i n t h e i r b i d f o r l o c a l s e l f - g o v e r n a n c e , the Khuzestani populace would welcome and support an I r a q i i n c u r s i o n t h a t aimed a t ending Teheran's c o n t r o l over the r e g i o n and a t deposing the t r a d i t i o n a l i s t c l e r i c a l regime. The B a a t h i s t s ' c o n v i c t i o n on t h i s s c o r e l e d t o the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t o n l y two army d i v i s i o n s would be needed t o overrun I r a n i a n defenses and secure c o n t r o l over Khuzestan. The I r a q i e l i t e ' s b e l i e f t h a t the churchmen e x e r c i s e d o n l y a tenuous c o n t r o l over r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n was 117 f u r t h e r r e i n f o r c e d by the p e r c e p t i o n s o f a number o f i m p o r t a n t I r a n i a n e x i l e s who had t a k e n up r e s i d e n c e i n Baghdad. The a n t i - c l e r i c a l e x p a t r i a t e s o r g a n i z e d the N a t i o n a l I r a n i a n R e s i s t a n c e Movement. The movement's p o l i t i c a l a f f a i r s were g u i d e d by Shahpur B a k h t i a r , who had b r i e f l y s e r v e d as pr ime m i n i s t e r p r i o r t o t h e S h a h ' s f a l l , and L i e u t e n a n t G e n e r a l Gholam Reza O v e i s s i , who had s e r v e d as the m i l i t a r y a d m i n i s t r a t o r o f Teheran d u r i n g the P a h l a v i e r a , assumed c o n t r o l over m i l i t a r y m a t t e r s . 2 7 To the d e l i g h t o f t h e B a a t h i s t s , B a k h t i a r r e g u l a r l y denounced K h o m e i n i ' s a b i l i t y t o l e a d I r a n ; on one o c c a s i o n , t h e former p r e m i e r c h a r g e d t h a t Khomeini was "an out o f d a t e , narrow- minded d i c t a t o r who can o n l y d e s t r o y and does not know how t o c o n s t r u c t . " 2 8 The Baath government, i n an e f f o r t t o a s s i s t the I r a n i a n r e s i s t a n c e i n i t s a n t i - K h o m e i n i campaign, a f f o r d e d the c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r i e s l e d by B a k h t i a r and O v e i s s i the use o f s e v e r a l I r a q i m i l i t a r y b a s e s , as w e l l as a l a r g e amount o f weaponry. In a d d i t i o n , Baghdad a l l o w e d the U . S . C e n t r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e Agency t o e s t a b l i s h a r a d i o s t a t i o n on I r a q i s o i l f o r the d i s s i d e n t f o r c e s , which was dubbed t h e "Free V o i c e o f I r a n " 2 9 and which was u t i l i z e d t o beam a n t i - c l e r i c a l propaganda i n t o the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . In June o f 1979, G e n e r a l O v e i s s i c i r c u l a t e d a r e p o r t i n which i t was m a i n t a i n e d t h a t some 150,000 I r a n i a n t r o o p s s t o o d ready t o s u p p o r t a f o r e i g n i n c u r s i o n t h a t aimed a t 118 o u s t i n g the K h o m e i n i s t s from p o w e r . 3 0 O v e i s s i ' s e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e degree o f c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y s en t iment w i t h i n the r a n k s o f t h e I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y was w e l l r e c e i v e d by the B a a t h i s t s . Moreover , by J u l y o f 1980, B a k h t i a r was o p e n l y i n s i s t i n g t h a t the K h o m e i n i i t e regime was near c o l l a p s e . In s h o r t , Baghdad h e l d the e x p a t r i a t e ' s v a l u a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the number o f I r a n i a n s who would l e n d d i r e c t s u p p o r t t o an I r a q i b i d t o f o r c i b l y t o p p l e the c l e r i c a l government t o be h i g h l y c r e d i b l e w h i c h , i n t u r n , c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e c o n v i c t i o n t h a t a c o n s i d e r a b l e o p p o r t u n i t y e x i s t e d f o r a t t a i n i n g b o t h d e f e n s i v e and o f f e n s i v e o b j e c t i v e s v i s - a - v i s a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . O p p o r t u n i t y F o s t e r e d by t h e M o n o c r a t i c Nature o f the I r a q i P o l i t i c a l System Analogous t o a r r i v i n g a t a l u c i d , i n - d e p t h g r a s p o f Baghdad's i n c e n t i v e framework, a c i t i n g o f the i n f l u e n c e o f t h e a b s o l u t i s t o r i e n t a t i o n o f Baath governance , a l o n g w i t h the a t t e n d a n t p a u c i t y o f s t r o n g p o l i t i c a l o p p o s i t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s , i s comparably e s s e n t i a l i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g the complex o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e u n d e r l y i n g I r a q ' s d e c i s i o n t o r i s k a b i d f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . O v e r a l l , t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l demonstrate t h e degree t o which t h e B a a t h i s t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s i n g r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n were a f f e c t e d by the n a t u r e o f the d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l e q u a t i o n . 119 Beyond p u r g i n g the upper r a n k s o f the Baath a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f a l l o f f i c i a l s who e x p r e s s e d a p p r e h e n s i o n r e g a r d i n g the e n v i s i o n e d o n s l a u g h t a g a i n s t I r a n , Saddam H u s s e i n , s h o r t l y a f t e r the K h o m e i n i s t s came t o power, l a u n c h e d a c o n c e r t e d e f f o r t t o e l i m i n a t e a l l o p p o s i n g p o l i t i c a l groups and t o f i r m l y e s t a b l i s h I r a q as a one- p a r t y p o l i t y under the u n e q u i v o c a l mastery o f t h e B a a t h i s t s . The I r a q i despot pursued t h i s end w i t h a r u t h l e s s b e n t . An immediate o b j e c t i v e o f H u s s e i n ' s m o n o c r a t i c agenda was t o d i s m a n t l e the N a t i o n a l P r o g r e s s i v e Peop le s F r o n t , a l o o s e c o a l i t i o n formed i n May o f 1973 c o m p r i s i n g the B a a t h i s t s and v a r i o u s o t h e r p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , m a i n l y the I r a q i Communist P a r t y ( I C P ) , 3 1 which was the o n l y o t h e r I r a q i p a r t y t h a t w i e l d e d a c o n s e q u e n t i a l l e v e l o f s u p p o r t . The I r a q i Communist P a r t y , due t o i t s c o n f l i c t i n g p o s i t i o n s r e g a r d i n g a number o f i m p o r t a n t domes t i c i s s u e s , p r i n c i p a l l y , t h e K u r d i s h i m b r o g l i o , and because o f i t s l o n g - s t a n d i n g e f f o r t s t o b r e a k t h e B a a t h i s t s ' upper hand o v e r I r a q ' s p o l i t i c a l sys tem, was l o o k e d upon by Saddam H u s s e i n and h i s a s s o c i a t e s w i t h odium. A n d , a c c o r d i n g l y , a number o f measures were i n i t i a t e d i n mid-1979 t o undermine t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , b e g i n n i n g i n A p r i l w i t h a t h i r t y - d a y s u s p e n s i o n o f the p r i n t i n g and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f T a r i q a l - Shaab, the I r a q i Communist newspaper. S h o r t l y a f t e r w a r d , t h e B a a t h i s t s brought t h e f a v o r e d s t ra tagem o f p u r p o r t e d c o n s p i r a c y i n t o p l a y a g a i n s t the I C P ; a number o f the 120 movement's t o p c a d r e were d e t a i n e d on charges o f a t t e m p t i n g t o e s t a b l i s h p a r t y " c e l l s " w i t h i n the r a n k s o f the n a t i o n ' s armed f o r c e s , which was h e l d t o be i n l i n e w i t h t h e Communist 's u l t i m a t e d e s i g n o f t o p p l i n g t h e Government. As a means o f f u r t h e r f a b r i c a t i n g a semblance o f a l e g i t i m a t e p r e t e x t f o r the wave o f r e p r e s s i o n a g a i n s t the I C P , which i n c l u d e d the met ing out o f d e a t h sentences and l e n g t h y terms o f i n c a r c e r a t i o n t o those r a n k i n g p a r t y o f f i c i a l s i m p l i c a t e d i n the thwarted " p l o t " t o s t i r u n r e s t w i t h i n t h e m i l i t a r y , the B a a t h i s t s c h a r g e d t h a t t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f the ICP was c o l l u d i n g w i t h " Z i o n i s t s and I s r a e l , " 3 2 t h e supreme nemeses o f A r a b n a t i o n a l i s t s , i n an e f f o r t t o promote p o l i t i c a l d i s s e n s i o n throughout I r a q . In a d d i t i o n , i n F e b r u a r y o f 1980, the V o i c e o f the S tudent s [Sauut a l - T a l e b ] , a p e r i o d i c a l w i t h a d i s c e r n i b l e p r o - B a a t h l e a n i n g , c h a r g e d t h a t the ICP had e s t a b l i s h e d l i n k s w i t h t h e B r i t i s h Communist P a r t y and I s r a e l i d i p l o m a t s p o s t e d i n London . In s h o r t , by p r o p a g a t i n g an image o f the ICP as a c t i n g i n c o n c e r t w i t h the " Z i o n i s t e n t i t y , " an avowed t h r e a t t o I r a q as w e l l as t o the A r a b n a t i o n i n g e n e r a l , the Baath e l i t e was a b l e t o p e r s e c u t e the p a r t y w i t h o u t f e a r o f a d v e r s e p u b l i c r e a c t i o n . Repeated open a s s e r t i o n s by the I C P ' s l e a d e r s t h a t t h e B a a t h i s t s ' charges were w i t h o u t f o u n d a t i o n f a i l e d t o d e t e r Saddam H u s s e i n from r e a l i z i n g h i s o b j e c t i v e o f end ing a c t i v e o p p o s i t i o n by the Communists. By the eve o f the 121 commencement o f the war, the l e a d e r s h i p o f the I C P , due t o Baath o r c h e s t r a t e d exces se s , had been c o m p e l l e d t o abandon e f f o r t s t o o p e n l y p a r t i c i p a t e i n the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s and t o adopt an underground form o f o p p o s i t i o n a g a i n s t t h e Baath a u t o c r a c y . O v e r a l l , by d r i v i n g the Communist movement u n d e r g r o u n d , t h e B a a t h i s t s succeeded i n e f f e c t i v e l y e l i m i n a t i n g the l a s t r e m a i n i n g v e s t i g e o f n o t a b l e p o l i t i c a l o p p o s i t i o n and , as a r e s u l t , Saddam H u s s e i n and h i s a s s o c i a t e s 1 p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c a r r y i n g out a s u c c e s s f u l armed campaign were not d i m i n i s h e d by c o n c e r n f o r a compromis ing o f s e c r e c y o r r e s i s t a n c e by r i v a l p o l i t i c a l g r o u p s . The L e v e l o f I n a c c u r a c y U n d e r l y i n g t h e B a a t h i s t s ' E s t i m a t i o n s o f O p p o r t u n i t y : F a i l u r e t o D i s c e r n P o t e n t i a l . Adverse Consequences I n h e r e n t i n S e e k i n g t o S t r a t e g i c a l l y S u r p r i s e R e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n To t h i s p o i n t , the a n a l y s i s o f t h i s c h a p t e r has been d i r e c t e d toward t h e major a s p e c t s o f the B a a t h i s t s ' o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e ; however, s i m i l a r t o a r r i v i n g a t a comprehens ive u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the p r o t a g o n i s t ' s i n c e n t i v e s , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o e v a l u a t e the degree t o which p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a t t a i n i n g g o a l s t h r o u g h a g g r e s s i o n were based on r e a s o n a b l y a c c u r a t e o b s e r v a t i o n s . C l e a r l y , the Baath r e g i m e ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e e n t a i l e d a number o f f a u l t y judgments r e g a r d i n g the l i k e l y , s h o r t - t e r m and l o n g - t e r m r a m i f i c a t i o n s t h a t would emerge from the a t t a c k on the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . B a s i c a l l y , Baghdad 122 proceeded from numerous i n a c c u r a t e c a l c u l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s : the a c t u a l prowess o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s ; the m i l i t a r y and economic v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f I r a q t o armed I r a n i a n c o u n t e r a t t a c k s ; the o v e r a l l d i f f i c u l t y and a s s o r t e d c o m p l e x i t i e s i n h e r e n t i n c a r r y i n g out a b i d t o s e i z e c o n t r o l o f K h u z e s t a n ; and the n a t u r e o f t h e p o l i t i c a l atmosphere w i t h i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . F i r s t and foremos t , from a m i l i t a r y p e r s p e c t i v e , the I r a q i regime e r r e d by commit t ing an inadequate number o f ground t r o o p s t o t h e open ing t h r u s t i n t o I r a n . A l b e i t i n i t i a l l y , t h e i n v a d i n g I r a q i f o r c e s d i d r e a l i z e a s i g n i f i c a n t degree o f s u r p r i s e and , s u b s e q u e n t l y , were a b l e t o make major advances a g a i n s t o n l y l i g h t r e s i s t a n c e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n K h u z e s t a n , which was defended by a s i n g l e , u n d e r s t r e n g t h army d i v i s i o n , 3 3 t h e r e s o l v e o f I r a n i a n t r o o p s t o r a l l y and i n i t i a t e i n t e n s e c o u n t e r a t t a c k s was not grasped by t h e B a a t h i s t s . By and l a r g e , an overemphas is was p l a c e d by I r a q i s t r a t e g i s t s upon t h e d i m i n u t i o n i n t h e s i z e o f the I r a n i a n army. T h i s f o i b l e o f s t r a t e g i c import can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the f a i l u r e t o f o r e s e e the f e r o c i o u s , m a r t i a l e l a n which v a r i o u s i r r e g u l a r I r a n i a n f o r c e s , p r i n c i p a l l y the R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards [ P a s d a r a n ] , would d i s p l a y i n r e p e l l i n g an I r a q i i n c u r s i o n . In a d d i t i o n , i n the t u m u l t t h a t was spawned by the onse t o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n , many m i l i t a r y compounds were l o o t e d 123 o f weapons and ammunit ion , which were u t i l i z e d t o form a number o f l o c a l m i l i t i a u n i t s a s s i g n e d the p r i n c i p a l m i s s i o n o f d e f e n d i n g the r e v o l u t i o n . When combined, the v a r i o u s r e v o l u t i o n a r y defense groups amounted t o a f o r m i d a b l e , l a r g e l y u n a n t i c i p a t e d o b s t a c l e t o the B a a t h i s t s * immediate d e s i g n s , m a i n l y the r a p i d o v e r r u n n i n g o f K h u z e s t a n . The z e a l o f the i r r e g u l a r I r a n i a n f o r c e s t o engage i n b l o o d y urban w a r f a r e s e r v e d t o p r e v e n t I r a q i t r o o p s from s e c u r i n g c o n t r o l over the major m e t r o p o l i t a n c e n t e r s o f t h e r e g i o n , namely Ahwaz, Abadan, and Khorramshahr . The e s t i m a t e d c o s t , i n terms o f I r a q i c a s u a l t i e s , i n a t t e m p t i n g t o l a y s i e g e t o Khuzes tan*s c i t i e s , was deemed t o be p r o h i b i t i v e by Baghdad and , as a r e s u l t , o n l y a few months a f t e r the i n i t i a t i o n o f the c o n f l i c t , the I r a q i o f f e n s i v e was s t a l l e d . Beyond f a i l i n g t o a r r i v e a t a p r e c i s e a p p r a i s a l o f t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f I r a n i a n ground f o r c e s t o mount s t r o n g r e s i s t a n c e , t h e Baath e l i t e d i d no t a f f o r d adequate c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o a number o f q u a l i t a t i v e shor tcomings hampering I r a q i i n f a n t r y f o r c e s , the most i m p o r t a n t o f which was a d e a r t h o f a c t u a l combat e x p e r i e n c e a g a i n s t a f o r e i g n a d v e r s a r y . 3 4 By and l a r g e , the I r a q i army had not demonstra ted a n o t a b l e prowess i n p r i o r m i l i t a r y engagements; I r a q i t r o o p s p l a y e d o n l y a minor r o l e i n the 1948-1949 and 1967 A r a b - I s r a e l i wars . A n d , i n a c l a s h w i t h t h e I s r a e l i army on the G o l a n H e i g h t s d u r i n g the b r i e f 124 c o n f l i c t o f O c t o b e r 1973, t h e b u l k o f I r a q ' s S o v i e t - s u p p l i e d t a n k c o r p s was d e s t r o y e d i n a m a t t e r o f h o u r s . 3 5 T h i s r o u t i n g abroad was f o l l o w e d by an extreme d i f f i c u l t y i n q u e l l i n g t h e K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n c y a t home. A r i g i d adherence t o S o v i e t m i l i t a r y d o c t r i n e w i t h o u t the h o l d i n g o f r e g u l a r maneuvers c o n s t i t u t e s one p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the l i m i t e d b a t t l e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f I r a q i t r o o p s . 3 6 In s h o r t , by not c o n s i d e r i n g the l a c k l u s t e r per formance o f I r a q i i n f a n t r y and armored f o r c e s i n p a s t engagements, Baghdad o v e r l o o k e d an i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r when a r r i v i n g a t i t s e s t i m a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f s u c c e s s f u l l y i n v a d i n g K h u z e s t a n . P a r a l l e l l i n g the i m p r e c i s e r a t i n g o f I r a q i and I r a n i a n ground f o r c e s , the B a a t h i s t s a l s o mi s judged the competence o f the I r a q i a i r f o r c e , as w e l l as the v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f I r a q t o c o u n t e r s t r i k e s by I r a n i a n w a r p l a n e s . The I r a q i m i l i t a r y command counted on t a k i n g a number o f I r a n i a n a i r bases by s u r p r i s e , t h e r e b y s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e d u c i n g t h e c a p a c i t y o f Teheran t o l a u n c h a i r c o u n t e r a t t a c k s . However, the I r a q i a i r f o r c e p r o v e d w h o l l y i n a d e q u a t e f o r t h i s t a s k . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note t h a t i n September o f 1980, I r a q i p i l o t s were s t i l l u n d e r g o i n g f a m i l i a r i z a t i o n t r a i n i n g w i t h the r e c e n t l y a c q u i r e d F r e n c h M i r a g e and D e l t a 2000 a i r c r a f t , and t h e s e advanced warplanes were u n a v a i l a b l e f o r use i n the c r u c i a l , i n i t i a l days o f the war. As a r e s u l t , Baghdad was r e l e g a t e d t o r e l y e x c l u s i v e l y 125 on v a r i o u s models o f S o v i e t - p r o d u c e d a i r c r a f t , which l a c k e d t h e e s s e n t i a l range c a p a c i t y and h i g h l y a c c u r a t e weapon systems needed t o e f f e c t i v e l y s t r i k e m i l i t a r y and i n d u s t r i a l t a r g e t s deep w i t h i n the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . 3 7 I r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e u n d e r t a k i n g o f numerous s o r t i e s by I r a q i warp lanes a g a i n s t I r a n i a n t a r g e t s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t week o f t h e c o n f l i c t , the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c s u s t a i n e d o n l y minor damage. A i r s t r i k e s a g a i n s t the p e t r o l e u m p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s a t I s f a h a n and T a b r i z e f f e c t e d o n l y a temporary d i s r u p t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n , w h i l e the T e h e r a n , K h a r q I s l a n d , and S h i r a z f a c i l i t i e s remained l a r g e l y u n s c a t h e d . 3 8 In a d d i t i o n , a l t h o u g h I r a q i a i r c r a f t were a b l e t o a r r i v e over a number o f wes tern I r a n i a n a i r f i e l d s u n d e t e c t e d , few I r a n i a n warplanes were d e s t r o y e d . The poor e x e c u t i o n o f the I r a q i a i r a t t a c k s can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e absence o f an e f f e c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y t o g a t h e r a c c u r a t e , u p - t o - d a t e m i l i t a r y i n t e l l i g e n c e r e g a r d i n g s e l e c t e d t a r g e t s , as w e l l as the l i m i t e d q u a l i t y o f S o v i e t a i r combat t r a i n i n g . S i m p l y p u t , I r a q i p i l o t s were i n c a p a b l e o f c o n d u c t i n g h i g h - p r e c i s i o n , l o w - l e v e l a i r s t r i k e s . 3 9 The Baath l e a d e r s h i p a l s o e r r e d by not d i s c e r n i n g t h e h i g h l e v e l o f I r a q ' s exposure t o c o u n t e r a g g r e s s i o n by I r a n i a n a i r power. C o n t r a r y t o Baghdad's o r i g i n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s , Teheran r a p i d l y responded t o the i n r o a d by o r d e r i n g a s e r i e s o f h i g h l y d e s t r u c t i v e s o r t i e s . I r a q i m i l i t a r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s , p e t r o l e u m p r o c e s s i n g , t r a n s s h i p m e n t 126 f a c i l i t i e s , and e c o n o m i c a l l y v i t a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l s i t e s bore the brunt o f the I r a n i a n r e p r i s a l s . In the opening weeks o f the war, I r a n i a n F-4 and F -5 fighter-bombers wreaked havoc on the f o l l o w i n g t a r g e t s : m i l i t a r y bases i n p r o x i m i t y t o Baghdad and Basra; the o i l f i e l d s and p i p e l i n e s i n t he Mosul-Kirkuk area; the huge o i l r e f i n e r y a t Basra; t h e Mina, Khor, and a l - B a k r petroleum l o a d i n g p l a n t s ; 4 0 and a number o f important dams along the Zab R i v e r . F o l l o w i n g the I r a n i a n r e t a l i a t i o n , I r a q was l e f t w i t h o n l y one remaining l o a d i n g t e r m i n a l on the G u l f c o a s t , and t h i s was l o c a t e d on the v u l n e r a b l e Fao P e n i n s u l a , i n p r o x i m i t y t o the Ku w a i t i f r o n t i e r . By and l a r g e , w i t h i n a b r i e f p e r i o d o f time, I r a q ' s c a p a c i t y t o export petroleum was s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i m i n i s h e d which, consequently, e f f e c t e d a s u b s t a n t i a l revenue l o s s . T h i s development proved t o be o n l y one of many unforeseen, adverse r a m i f i c a t i o n s stemming from the B a a t h i s t s ' i l l - f a t e d adventure. Baghdad's erroneous c a l c u l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g I r a n i a n a i r power, al o n g w i t h the con c u r r e n t extent o f Ir a q ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o a r e t r i b u t o r y a i r b l i t z , can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the overemphasis p l a c e d upon o b s e r v a t i o n s of the r e d u c t i o n , due t o a weakened maintenance c a p a b i l i t y , o f the number of f l i g h t w o r t h y I r a n i a n warplanes, as w e l l as t o an o v e r l o o k i n g o f the marginal q u a l i t y o f the I r a q i a i r defense network. In q u a l i t a t i v e terms, i r r e s p e c t i v e o f the f a c t t h a t o n l y approximately f i f t y p e r c e n t o f the I r a n i a n 127 complement o f s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t combat a i r c r a f t were i n a c o n d i t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n a l r e a d i n e s s i n September o f 1980, t h i s amounted t o a s u p e r i o r f o r c e compared t o I r a q ' s l a r g e l y S o v i e t - e q u i p p e d a i r f o r c e . 4 1 In a d d i t i o n , I r a n ' s h i g h l y - s k i l l e d , I s r a e l i and Amer ican t r a i n e d p i l o t s were a b l e t o evade I r a q ' s r a d a r d e t e c t i o n system and b a t t e r i e s o f t e c h n i c a l l y m e d i o c r e , S o v i e t s u r f a c e - t o - a i r (SAM) m i s s i l e s by c o n d u c t i n g l o w - l e v e l s o r t i e s . 4 2 O v e r a l l , the Baath l e a d e r s h i p v e s t e d e x c e s s i v e c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n s o f a number o f Western m i l i t a r y a n a l y s t s and I r a n i a n e x i l e s r e g a r d i n g the e n e r v a t i o n o f the I r a n i a n a i r f o r c e . No independent , i n - depth s t u d y o f the a c t u a l degree o f breakdown o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s a i r c a p a b i l i t y e f f e c t e d by the r e v o l u t i o n was u n d e r t a k e n by Baghdad, and t h i s key o m i s s i o n c o n s t i t u t e d t h e major f a c t o r b e h i n d the u n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f mass ive I r a n i a n a i r c o u n t e r a t t a c k s . The I r a q i e l i t e ' s p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y were a l s o under t h e sway o f i n c o r r e c t a n a l y s i s o f the degree o f n a v a l power a t the d i s p o s a l o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c and the a t t e n d a n t t h r e a t o f i n t e r d i c t i o n o f I r a q ' s p e t r o l e u m o u t l e t s on t h e G u l f . I n s h o r t , Baghdad committed a major s t r a t e g i c e r r o r i n f a i l i n g t o a c c o r d adequate c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o the q u a l i t a t i v e and q u a n t i t a t i v e d i s p a r i t y between t h e s m a l l I r a q i navy , which compr i sed o n l y f o u r thousand s a i l o r s and t h e t h i r t y thousand man-s trong I r a n i a n navy . 128 By and l a r g e , I r a q l a c k e d a s t r o n g n a v a l c a p a b i l i t y ; t h e Baath l e a d e r s h i p was c o g n i z a n t t h a t t h e n a t i o n ' s s m a l l f l o t i l l a o f s i x p a t r o l b o a t s and twe lve m i s s i l e a t t a c k b o a t s , which were r o u t i n e l y b r e a k i n g down due t o m e c h a n i c a l d y s f u n c t i o n s , 4 3 d i d not c o n s t i t u t e a f o r m i d a b l e de fense a g a i n s t seaborne o n s l a u g h t s . A n d , w h i l e a l a r g e n a v a l i n s t a l l a t i o n had been e s t a b l i s h e d a t Umm Q a s r , the base was i n c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y and c o u l d o n l y be r e a c h e d t h r o u g h the c o n f i n e d Khawr Abd A l l a h waterway, which runs between the I r a q i m a i n l a n d and a number o f K u w a i t i i s l a n d s . In a d d i t i o n , the p o r t a t F a o , a l o n g w i t h the mouth o f the S h a t t a l - A r a b were w i t h i n s t r i k i n g d i s t a n c e o f I r a n i a n f o r c e s p o s i t i o n e d on Abadan I s l a n d . 4 4 Moreover , the I r a q i a i r f o r c e was u n t r a i n e d i n f l y i n g s o r t i e s a g a i n s t enemy n a v a l v e s s e l s . 4 5 F i n a l l y , the I r a q i e l i t e d i d not a t t a c h importance t o t h e f a c t t h a t , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f maintenance p r o b l e m s , I r a n was a b l e t o d e p l o y s e v e r a l o f i t s p o w e r f u l d e s t r o y e r s and f r i g a t e s . P a r a d o x i c a l l y , t h e s e v a r i o u s c a p a b i l i t y shor tcomings and accompanying v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s were d i s m i s s e d as i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l by the B a a t h i s t s . T h i s anomaly can be l a r g e l y a s c r i b e d t o Baghdad's m i s t a k e n b e l i e f t h a t i t s war p l a n s would be r a p i d l y r e a l i z e d i n a campaign o f s h o r t d u r a t i o n and , a c c o r d i n g l y , t h e importance o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s n a v a l f o r c e s would be negated . 129 Beyond s t r i c t l y m i l i t a r y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , as was p r e v i o u s l y ment ioned , the I r a q i r e g i m e ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e was a l s o p a r t i a l l y grounded upon an a n t i c i p a t i o n o f s u p p o r t from K h u z e s t a n ' s A r a b m i n o r i t y and v a r i o u s p o l i t i c a l groups a v e r s e t o the c l e r i c s ' i d e o l o g i c a l i m p e r a t i v e s . On the f a c e o f i t , I r a q i e x p e c t a t i o n s on t h i s s c o r e were p r e d i c a t e d on the f o l l o w i n g i n c o r r e c t p r e m i s e : t h a t a s u c c e s s f u l i n c u r s i o n and t h e s e i z u r e o f K h u z e s t a n , which would be a b e t t e d by A r a b i n s u r g e n t s , would s e r v e t o d i m i n i s h the p o p u l a r s u p p o r t o f the K h o m e i n i s t s w h i l e e f f e c t i n g a c o n c o m i t a n t b o l s t e r i n g o f s e c u l a r groups w i t h i n I r a n w h i c h , u l t i m a t e l y , would r e s u l t i n the emergence o f a c e n t r i s t , l a y government t h a t would pose no t h r e a t t o the s t a n d i n g p o l i t i c a l o r d e r i n I r a q . However, r e g a r d l e s s o f w i d e s p r e a d d i s c o n t e n t , the K h u z e s t a n i A r a b s were not i n c l i n e d t o embrace a f o r e i g n i n v a s i o n f o r c e . A n d , i n s p i t e o f t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a number o f c o u n t e r v a i l i n g i d e o l o g i c a l e l ement s , p o l i t i c a l power w i t h i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n was dominated by t h e S h i ' i t e churchmen, who w i e l d e d w i d e s p r e a d , g r a s s - r o o t s s u p p o r t . In s h o r t , the B a a t h i s t s f a i l e d t o r e c o g n i z e the e x t e n t o f the u n i f y i n g i n f l u e n c e o f n a t i o n a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n among the K h u z e s t a n i Arabs and I s l a m i c z e a l among t h e I r a n i a n peasant masses. Baghdad d i d not t h o r o u g h l y c o n s i d e r v a r i o u s e t h n i c , r e l i g i o - c u l t u r a l and h i s t o r i c a l f a c t o r s i n assuming t h a t an i r r u p t i o n o f Khuzes tan would be met w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t b a c k i n g 130 by t h e r e g i o n ' s i n d i g e n o u s . To t h e c o n t r a r y , the A r a b m i n o r i t y r e a d i l y j o i n e d i n the e f f o r t t o r o l l back the I r a q i i n r o a d . I n many r e s p e c t s , Baghdad's a l l u s i o n t o Khuzes tan as " A r a b i s t a n " appears q u i t e p a r a d o x i c a l when the e t h n i c c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e l o c a l p o p u l a c e i s c o n s i d e r e d . In l i g h t o f the f a c t t h a t e t h n i c A r a b s compr i sed o n l y a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w o - f i f t h s o f t h e n e a r l y 3 .5 m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s o f K h u z e s t a n , which c o n s t i t u t e d a mere t h r e e p e r c e n t o f the I r a n i a n p o p u l a t i o n as a w h o l e , 4 6 t h e e x p e c t a t i o n o f an o u t p o u r i n g o f s t r o n g s u p p o r t f o r I r a q i i n v a s i o n f o r c e s seems g r o u n d l e s s . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n assuming t h a t t h e I r a n i a n A r a b s would r i s e up i n s u p p o r t o f the i n c u r s i o n , the I r a q i l e a d e r s h i p f a i l e d t o note an i m p o r t a n t f a c t : the A r a b m i n o r i t y o f Khuzes tan c o n s i s t e d p r e d o m i n a t e l y o f S h i a Mus l ims who d i d no t espouse t h e a r d e n t A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m championed by the S u n n i - d o m i n a t e d Baath r e g i m e . 4 7 The s p e c t e r o f "autonomy" under I r a q i domin ion was not r e l i s h e d by t h e K h u z e s t a n i A r a b s . A c c o r d i n g l y , d i r e c t I r a q i a s s i s t a n c e i n r e a l i z i n g t h e i r l o c a l o b j e c t i v e s , m a i n l y , l i m i t e d s e l f - r u l e and a g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e o f the revenue g e n e r a t e d by p e t r o l e u m s a l e s , was not sought a f t e r . And a l t h o u g h a p e r c e n t a g e o f K h u z e s t a n i Arabs a r e descendants o f nomadic t r i b e s m e n who immigrated t o southwes tern I r a n from t r a d i t i o n a l homelands i n e a s t e r n I r a q , a number o f s u c c e s s i v e I r a n i a n monarchs, b e g i n n i n g w i t h Reza Shah, 131 b r o u g h t about t h e " P e r s i a n i z a t i o n " o f t h e A r a b m i n o r i t y t h r o u g h v a r i o u s measures , i n c l u d i n g r e p l a c i n g A r a b i c w i t h P e r s i a n as t h e medium o f i n s t r u c t i o n i n r e g i o n a l s c h o o l s and f o r c e d r e l o c a t i o n s . 4 8 As a r e s u l t , by 1980, a p a r t from s e v e r a l e x t r e m i s t g u e r r i l l a g r o u p s , which commanded narrow f o l l o w i n g s , t h e r e was l i t t l e A r a b n a t i o n a l i s t s en t iment w i t h i n K h u z e s t a n . R e g a r d i n g the a n t i c i p a t e d l e v e l o f s u p p o r t f o r the a n t i - K h o m e i n i campaign among the e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n , Baghdad a t t a c h e d undue importance t o the mere e x i s t e n c e o f p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s a v e r s e t o the i d e o l o g i c a l s t r i p e f a v o r e d by the t r a d i t i o n a l i s t churchmen and f u r t h e r e r r e d by not c o n s i d e r i n g t h e v o l a t i l e n a t u r e o f the r e v o l u t i o n a r y u p h e a v a l . The i n h e r e n t danger i n l a u n c h i n g an a t t a c k upon a s t a t e e x p e r i e n c i n g the s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l trauma o f a t r u e r e v o l u t i o n escaped the B a a t h i s t s , who f a i l e d t o r e a l i z e t h a t the u n m i t i g a t e d rage o f the I r a n i a n p o p u l a c e , which had prompted the once p o w e r f u l Shah t o f l e e , c o u l d r e a d i l y be d i r e c t e d outward toward I r a q . F a r from b r i n g i n g out a sudden b u r g e o n i n g o f d i s c o n t e n t toward c l e r i c a l governance , t h e I r a q i i n r o a d g a l v a n i z e d the K h o m e i n i i t e r e g i m e ' s p o s i t i o n by p r o v i d i n g an e x t e r n a l menace w i t h which t o c h a n n e l t h e a t t e n t i o n and energy o f the I r a n i a n p e o p l e who, c o n t r a r y t o Baghdad's p r e s u m p t i o n s , p r o v e d bent on v i g o r o u s l y c h a l l e n g i n g any c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y i n t r u s i o n s . 4 9 O v e r a l l , p r o c e e d i n g from the e x t e n s i v e e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n , i t can be a c c u r a t e l y m a i n t a i n e d t h a t the B a a t h i s t s 1 p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r s t r a t e g i c a l l y s h o c k i n g I r a n encompassed a number o f s t r a t e g i c o v e r s i g h t s . T h i s f a c t o r c o n s t i t u t e s an i m p o r t a n t e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the u n a n t i c i p a t e d outcome o f t h e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . Determinants I n f l u e n c i n g the T i m i n g o f the U n d e r t a k i n g o f the S u r p r i s e O n s l a u g h t The f a c t o r s which c o n d i t i o n e d the Baath r e g i m e ' s d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g r e g a r d i n g when t o i n i t i a t e the a t t a c k c o n s t i t u t e s t h e f i n a l v a r i a b l e t o be a n a l y z e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . P l a n n i n g f o r the i n c u r s i o n i n t o the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c commenced i n August o f 1979, s h o r t l y a f t e r Saddam H u s s e i n f o r c e d P r e s i d e n t Bakr t o s t e p d o w n , 5 0 and a h a s t e n i n g o f the p r e p a r a t i o n s t r a n s p i r e d i n e a r l y 1980. W i t h r e g a r d t o a c t u a l t i m i n g , Baghdad aimed a t e x p l o i t i n g s e a s o n a l weather s h i f t s t o i t s advantage . More p r e c i s e l y , Baath s t r a t e g i s t s c o n c l u d e d t h a t by commencing the i n r o a d and o c c u p y i n g Khuzes tan p r i o r t o the b e g i n n i n g o f the l o n g , c o l d w i n t e r i n n o r t h e r n I r a n , a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e I r a n i a n p o p u l a c e would be d e n i e d a c c e s s t o adequate s u p p l i e s o f home h e a t i n g and c o o k i n g f u e l , and t h a t t h e extreme d i s c o m f o r t g e n e r a t e d by such a deve lopment , a l o n g w i t h numerous, a l r e a d y e x i s t e n t h a r d s h i p s stemming from the r e v o l u t i o n , would h a s t e n a h e i g h t e n i n g o f d i s a f f e c t i o n toward the K h o m e i n i s t s . 5 1 In a d d i t i o n , i t was d e c i d e d t h a t 133 t h e I r a n i a n g o v e r n i n g e l i t e would not expec t a major a t t a c k f o c u s e d on t h e southwestern r e g i o n o f the c o u n t r y on the eve o f t h e onse t o f t h e annual r a i n y season and a t t e n d a n t f l o o d i n g t h e r e , which u s u a l l y t a k e s p l a c e i n November. A c c o r d i n g l y , i t was assumed t h a t by e x e c u t i n g t h e o n s l a u g h t i n e a r l y autumn, a s i g n i f i c a n t degree o f s u r p r i s e would be a t t a i n e d . The I r a q i r e g i m e ' s d e c i s i o n t o embark on t h e conques t o f I r a n i n September o f 1980 was a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by p e r c e p t i o n s t h a t the c l e r i c a l government was b e g i n n i n g t o make headway i n i t s program o f revamping t h e n a t i o n ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s a l o n g r e v o l u t i o n a r y l i n e s . In March o f 1980, a number o f r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c t r a v e l e d t o London t o conduct a p a r l e y r e g a r d i n g t h e r e n e g o t i a t i o n o f some o r d e r s f o r armaments and s p a r e p a r t s t h a t had p r e v i o u s l y been c a n c e l l e d ; o f p a r t i c u l a r c o n c e r n t o Baghdad was T e h e r a n ' s e f f o r t t o a c q u i r e b a d l y needed equipment f o r I r a n ' s l a r g e complement o f B r i t i s h t a n k s . 5 2 In a d d i t i o n , i n mid-1980 , the B a a t h i s t s o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e number o f I r a n i a n t r o o p s s t a t i o n e d a l o n g t h e common f r o n t i e r was b e i n g g r a d u a l l y i n c r e a s e d . O v e r a l l , I r a q o p t e d t o s t r i k e a t a t ime t h a t would a f f o r d an optimum l e v e l o f s u r p r i s e and b e f o r e i t s p e r c e i v e d m i l i t a r y advantages d i s s i p a t e d . A n d , a l t h o u g h the a n t i c i p a t e d s w e l l i n g o f a n t i - c l e r i c a l s en t iment d i d not o b t a i n , i t can be s u r m i s e d t h a t , g i v e n t h e f a c t t h a t Khuzes tan and o t h e r key s t r e t c h e s o f the 134 I r a n i a n b o r d e r w i t h I r a q were l i g h t l y defended i n September o f 1980, the B a a t h i s t s ' c a r e f u l p l a n n i n g r e g a r d i n g the t i m i n g o f the o n s l a u g h t added t o the c o n s i d e r a b l e degree o f i n i t i a l s u r p r i s e v i s i t e d upon r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . C o n c l u s i o n C h a p t e r F o u r demonstrated t h a t , s i m i l a r t o the inducements f o r a g g r e s s i o n , t h e Baath e l i t e ' s o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e r e s t e d upon a number o f complex, i n t e r r e l a t e d f a c t o r s . I t was argued t h a t t h e B a a t h i s t s * sense o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r r e a l i z i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e stemmed from p e r c e p t i o n s o f v a r i o u s m i l i t a r y power advantages w i e l d e d by I r a q , as w e l l as from a b e l i e f t h a t , beyond a r e d u c t i o n i n s i z e , t h e mora le and e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f I r a n ' s armed f o r c e s had a l s o d e c l i n e d . In a d d i t i o n , i t was h e l d t h a t Baghdad was f u r t h e r encouraged by the economic problems and p o l i t i c a l u n r e s t which came t o the f o r e i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . M o r e o v e r , i t was no ted t h a t t h e a u t h o r i t a r i a n n a t u r e o f Baath governance s e r v e d t o b o l s t e r the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r e f f e c t i v e l y employ ing a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . A n d , q u e s t i o n s were r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g t h e o v e r a l l a c c u r a c y o f the B a a t h i s t s ' o p p o r t u n i s t i c c a l c u l a t i o n s . F i n a l l y , i t was argued t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n r e g a r d i n g the d a t e o f the i n i t i a t i o n o f the a t t a c k was no t a r r i v e d a t i n a sudden and w h i m s i c a l manner b u t , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , was the end r e s u l t o f a c o n s i d e r a b l e l e v e l o f u t i l i t y - o r i e n t e d d e l i b e r a t i o n s conducted by the I r a q i e l i t e . 135 C e n t r a l t o Baghdad's o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e was an o b s e r v a t i o n o f a fundamental s h i f t i n t h e m i l i t a r y b a l a n c e between I r a q and I r a n . The I r a q i l e a d e r s h i p was c o n v i n c e d t h a t the e n e r v a t i o n and g e n e r a l breakdown i n o r d e r g r i p p i n g I r a n ' s c o n v e n t i o n a l de fense f o r c e s a c c o r d e d ample o p p o r t u n i t y t o o v e r r u n and annex the l o n g - t r e a s u r e d Khuzes tan r e g i o n . The B a a t h i s t s ' a n a l y s i s was w h o l l y p r e d i c a t e d upon q u a n t i t a t i v e i n d i c e s o f m i l i t a r y power, l a r g e l y the r a t i o o f t a n k s , a i r c r a f t , and i n d i v i d u a l combatants p o s s e s s e d by I r a q and I r a n . However, the o v e r r e l i a n c e on t h e n u m e r i c a l i m b a l a n c e , i n terms o f v a r i o u s t y p e s o f armaments, s tands as one o f the c a r d i n a l f laws u n d e r l y i n g the Baath e l i t e ' s e s t i m a t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y . By o v e r e m p h a s i z i n g the importance o f the approximate edge i n b a s i c , c o n v e n t i o n a l armed f o r c e s , Baghdad o v e r l o o k e d a number o f s i g n i f i c a n t i n t a n g i b l e s , i n c l u d i n g t h e u n m i t i g a t e d f e r o c i t y demonstrated by bands o f i r r e g u l a r I r a n i a n combatants , as w e l l as the c o n s t r a i n i n g l i m i t a t i o n s o f the a c t u a l e x p e r i e n c e and prowess o f t h e I r a q i m i l i t a r y machine i n e x e c u t i n g the i n c u r s i o n and d e f e n d i n g a g a i n s t I r a n i a n c o u n t e r a g g r e s s i o n . Baghdad was g r e a t l y m i s t a k e n i n b e l i e v i n g t h a t an i n c u r s i o n would evoke a g r o u n d s w e l l i n g o f a n t i - c l e r i c a l s en t iment w h i c h , i n t u r n , would c u l m i n a t e i n the d e p o s a l o f t h e K h o m e i n i i t e c a b a l and the ascendancy o f a l e s s unsavory r u l i n g e l i t e . The myopia o f the B a a t h i s t s i n t h i s r e s p e c t 136 can be p r i n c i p a l l y a s c r i b e d t o a f a i l u r e t o d i s c e r n t h a t the m o b i l i z a t i o n o f the I r a n i a n p o p u l a c e f o r the r e v o l u t i o n a r y d r i v e a g a i n s t the r o y a l i s t regime had been l a r g e l y e f f e c t e d t h r o u g h l o c a l mosques and , as a r e s u l t , t h e p l e t h o r a o f s e c u l a r o p p o s i t i o n groups d i d not command wide f o l l o w i n g s . M o r e o v e r , i n mid-1980 , r e g a r d l e s s o f a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree o f economic d u r e s s , t h e masses i n I r a n demonstrated no t a c t i l e s i g n a l s t h a t thoughts o f o u s t i n g the K h o m e i n i s t s were b e i n g e n t e r t a i n e d . In s h o r t , a l t h o u g h the I r a n i a n e l i t e was caught o f f g u a r d by the I r a q i i r r u p t i o n , t h e u n d e r t a k i n g o f which would have l i k e l y been j e t t i s o n e d o n l y i f a moderate , s e c u l a r I r a n i a n e l i t e had come t o the f o r e on i t s own v o l i t i o n , the a n t i t h e s i s o f a b r i e f , f r u i t f u l i n r o a d o c c u r r e d : t h e i n c e p t i o n o f a seemingly i n t e r m i n a b l e , t o t a l war between I r a q and I r a n t h a t came t o s e r i o u s l y t h r e a t e n t h e l o n g - t e r m c o n t i n u a t i o n o f Baath governance . 137 CHAPTER IV NOTES - ' -Inst i tute o f S t r a t e g i c S t u d i e s , M i d d l e E a s t - M e d i t e r r a n e a n M i l i t a r y B a l a n c e (London: I n s t i t u t e o f S t r a t e g i c S t u d i e s , 1978-1979) , p . 36. 2 I n s t i t u t e o f S t r a t e g i c S t u d i e s , M i d d l e E a s t - M e d i t e r r a n e a n M i l i t a r y B a l a n c e (London: I n s t i t u t e o f S t r a t e g i c S t u d i e s , 1980-1981) , p . 42. 3New York T imes , 13 A p r i l 1980. 4 E f r a i m K a r s h , The I r a n - I r a q War: A M i l i t a r y A n a l y s i s (London: I n s t i t u t e o f S t r a t e g i c S t u d i e s , 1987), p . 17. 5 L e n o r e G . M a r t i n , The U n s t a b l e G u l f : T h r e a t s from W i t h i n ( L e x i n g t o n , M a s s a c h u s e t t s : D . C . Heath & Company, 1984) , p . 100. 6 I b i d . , p . 80. 7Shameem A k h t a r , "Impact o f the I s l a m i c Movement i n I r a n on t h e R e g i o n , " P a k i s t a n H o r i z o n 1-2 (1979):89. 8 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Domest ic S e r v i c e i n P e r s i a n , "Defense M i n i s t e r D i s c u s s e s Army," 4 O c t o b e r 1979, LD042014. 9 Ramesh S r e e d h a r , "State o f I r a n i a n Armed F o r c e s , " S t r a t e g i c A n a l y s i s 3 (June 1980):108. 1 0 I b i d . , p . 10. 1 ] - K a r s h , p . 14. 1 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , May 1980) , p . 123. 1 3 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , J a n u a r y 1980) , p . 869. 1 4 A k h t a r , p . 97. 1 5 I b i d . 138 1 6 V a h e P e t r o s s i a n , "Dilemmas o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , " The World Today 1 (January 1980):24. 1 7 R u h o l l a h K h o m e i n i , I s l am and R e v o l u t i o n , t r a n s . Hamid A l g a r ~ ( B e r k e l e y : M i z a n P r e s s , 1981) , p . 39. 1 8 C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r . 16 June 1979. 1 9 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , J u l y 1980) , p . 352. 2 0 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , June 1980) , p . 220. 2 1 I b i d . , p . 217. 2 2 R o u h o l l a h K. Ramazani , " I r a n ' s R e v o l u t i o n : P a t t e r n s , Prob lems , and P r o s p e c t s , " I n t e r n a t i o n a l A f f a i r s 3 (Summer 1980):446. 2 3 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1979) , p . 355. 2 4 S h a u l Bakhash, The R e i g n o f the A y a t o l l a h s : I r a n and t h e I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n (New Y o r k : B a s i c Books , I n c . , 1984) , p . 68. 2 5 N e w York T imes . 30 March 1980. 2 6 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1979) , p . 355. 2 7 J e f f M c C o n n e l l , " I r a q - I r a n War ," C o u n t e r s p y 5 (Winter 1980-1981):25. 2 8 T h e I r a n T i m e s . 15 F e b r u a r y 1980. 2 9 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1980) , p . 439. 3 0 R a m e s h S r e e d h a r , " D e s t a b i l i z a t i o n i n I r a n , " S t r a t e g i c A n a l y s i s 4 ( J u l y 1979):141. 3 1 C l a u d i a W r i g h t , "Iraq—New Power i n the M i d d l e E a s t , " F o r e i g n A f f a i r s 2 (Winter 1979-1980):265. 139 3 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , March 1980) , p . 1057. 3 3 J o h n W. Amos I I , "The I r a q - I r a n War: C o n f l i c t , L i n k a g e , and S p i l l o v e r i n the M i d d l e E a s t , " i n G u l f S e c u r i t y i n t o the 1980s: P e r c e p t u a l and S t r a t e g i c D imens ions , e d . R o b e r t D a r i u s , John W. Amos I I , and R a l p h H . Magnus (Pa lo A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , Hoover I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1984) , p . 60. 3 4 A n t h o n y H . Cordesman, The G u l f and the S e a r c h f o r S t r a t e g i c S t a b i l i t y : S a u d i A r a b i a , the M i l i t a r y B a l a n c e i n the G u l f , and Trends i n the A r a b - I s r a e l i M i l i t a r y Ba lance ( B o u l d e r , C o l o r a d o : Westview P r e s s , 1984), p . 657. 3 5 K a r s h » P- 17. 3 6 C o r d e s m a n , p . 688. 3 7 I b i d . / P- 664. 3 8 I b i d . / P- 546. 3 9 I b i d . / P- 655. 4 0 l b i d . , P- 547. 4 1 I b i d . / P- 655. 4 2 I b i d . 4 3 I b i d . / P- 656. 4 4 A m o s , P- 52. 4 5 C o r d e s m a n , p . 688. 4 6 I b i d . / P- 649. 4 7 C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r , 1 June 1979. 4 8 C o r d e s m a n , p . 650. 4 9 I b i d . , P- 659. 5 0 A m o s , P- 56. 5 1 C l a u d i a W r i g h t , "Behind I r a q ' s B o l d B i d , " Y o r k Times Magaz ine . 26 O c t o b e r 1980, p . 43 5 2 S r e e d h a r , p . 111. CHAPTER V REVOLUTIONARY IRAN'S EXPOSURE TO STRATEGIC SURPRISE: MILITARY, INTELLIGENCE AND DOMESTIC POLITICAL CAUSAL FACTORS The o v e r r i d i n g emphasis o f the p r e c e d i n g t h r e e c h a p t e r s was p l a c e d upon i l l u m i n a t i n g t h e I r a q i e l i t e ' s inducements and p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a t t a i n i n g s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . Toward p r o v i d i n g a f u l l e r p i c t u r e o f t h e case a t hand , t h e a n a l y s i s w i l l now s h i f t t o a more i n - depth f o c u s on the c o n d i t i o n s t h a t r e n d e r e d I r a n s u s c e p t i b l e t o s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . The i n i t i a l s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r f u r t h e r d e l v e s i n t o the a s s o r t e d developments and problems t h a t c o n t r i b u t e d t o the d i m i n u t i o n o f the c a p a b i l i t y o f I r a n ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s t o r a p i d l y r e p e l an i n c u r s i o n . The second s e c t i o n addres se s t h e breakdown o f I r a n ' s i n t e l l i g e n c e s e r v i c e s and how t h i s development weakened the c a p a b i l i t y t o gauge the o b j e c t i v e s o f a d v e r s a r i e s , i n c l u d i n g I r a q . A n d , t h e t h i r d s e c t i o n e n t a i l s a thorough e x a m i n a t i o n o f the h i g h l e v e l o f p o l i t i c a l d i v i s i o n t h a t d e v e l o p e d i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n and how t h i s f a c t o r d e t r a c t e d the a t t e n t i o n o f t h e de j u r e and de f a c t o e l i t e s away from e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s . 140 141 V u l n e r a b i l i t y A r i s i n g from T r a n s i t i o n i n the C o m p o s i t i o n o f the M i l i t a r y . D i sadvantageous P o s i t i o n i n g o f F o r c e s , and a Breakdown o f S t r a t e g y and D e f e n s i v e P l a n n i n g As ment ioned i n C h a p t e r T h r e e , the K h o m e i n i s t s 1 d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o f u n d a m e n t a l l y r e s t r u c t u r e the n a t i o n ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , an end which the s e c u l a r government p a r t i a l l y s u p p o r t e d , stemmed from the extreme l e v e l o f b r u t a l i t y demonstrated by t h e armed f o r c e s i n the v a i n e f f o r t t o s u p p r e s s p o p u l a r d e m o n s t r a t i o n s a g a i n s t the Shah' s o p p r e s s i v e governance , a l o n g w i t h a c o n c e r n t h a t s t a l w a r t champions o f m o n a r c h i a l r u l e w i t h i n the m i l i t a r y might a t tempt t o o r g a n i z e c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y e f f o r t s . To f o r e s t a l l t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f such an unwelcome development , a number o f r e f o r m measures were i n i t i a t e d . In g e n e r a l , the u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e o f the dominant c l e r i c a l e l i t e was t o a b o l i s h t h e wide s o c i e t a l d i v i s i o n between the m i l i t a r y and the common masses , a c o n d i t i o n t h a t had been f o s t e r e d by the r o y a l i s t r e g i m e . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , t h e m i l i t a r y was t o be t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o p o p u l a r f o r c e s t h a t would adhere t o the paramount purpose o f s a f e g u a r d i n g the w e l f a r e o f the I r a n i a n p o p u l a c e . Khomeini e l u c i d a t e d h i s s ent iment r e g a r d i n g the a p p r o p r i a t e f u n c t i o n o f the m i l i t a r y , w i t h r e g a r d t o s o c i e t y as a whole , d u r i n g a meet ing w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f t h e army' s second i n f a n t r y d i v i s i o n i n A p r i l o f 1979: The army be longs t o us and we b e l o n g t o t h e army. The army and the n a t i o n a r e not two d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s . . . . . . . the army i s an I s l a m i c a r m y . 1 142 In de fense o f the p o s i t i o n t h a t a revamping o f the I r a n i a n army was a b s o l u t e l y e s s e n t i a l , M o s t a f a Chamran, who was a c c o r d e d t h e c a b i n e t p o r t f o l i o o f de fense m i n i s t e r , remarked i n e a r l y 1979 t h a t " t h i s army was b u i l t and c r e a t e d i n t h e s a t a n i c a l e r a , " and a c c o r d i n g l y , had t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r e d t o c o r r e s p o n d t o the i m p e r a t i v e s o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y r e g i m e . 2 I n f a c t , a t t h i s j u n c t u r e , Chamran r e v e a l e d t h a t , i n i t i a l l y , s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n had been g i v e n t o d i s b a n d i n g the r e g u l a r army a l t o g e t h e r , but t h a t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y had been j e t t i s o n e d due t o the b e l i e f t h a t t h e army c o u l d be o f u t i l i t y i n m a i n t a i n i n g i n t e r n a l o r d e r . As an a l t e r n a t i v e , Qom and Teheran d e c i d e d t o work toward e s t a b l i s h i n g an army t h a t would v i g o r o u s l y de fend the r e v o l u t i o n . In terms o f a paradigm on which t o p r e d i c a t e the m o d i f i e d r e g u l a r army o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , the r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime adopted t h a t o f t h e Red R u s s i a n Army, wh ich had been g u i d e d by a c o r e o f i d e o l o g i c a l l y d e d i c a t e d non-commiss ioned o f f i c e r s . Consonant w i t h the B o l s h e v i k e x p e r i e n c e , Teheran aimed a t b r i d g i n g the wide g u l f between o f f i c e r s and e n l i s t e d men. M a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f t h i s c o n c o m i t a n t end i n c l u d e d the c a n c e l l a t i o n o f v a r i o u s s p e c i a l p r i v i l e g e s en joyed by commissioned o f f i c e r s as w e l l as r e q u i r i n g a l l r a n k i n g o f f i c e r s t o demonstrate u n q u a l i f i e d s u p p o r t f o r " I r a n ' s independence ," and the " I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n . " 3 143 However, Khomeini and h i s l i e u t e n a n t s were not s a t i s f i e d w i t h mere p l e d g e s o f a l l e g i a n c e t o the r e v o l u t i o n ; i t was t h e i r b e l i e f t h a t a p u r g i n g o f the s e n i o r o f f i c e r c o r p s would a l s o be n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o m i t i g a t e the danger o f c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n . The smashing o f the deposed S h a h ' s m i l i t a r y command was i n i t i a t e d on 12 F e b r u a r y 1979 w i t h t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n s o f G e n e r a l B a k r o t J a f a r i a n , the m i l i t a r y commander o f K h u z e s t a n , and G e n e r a l A b d u l - A l i B a d r e ' i , head o f I r a n ' s ground f o r c e s . On 1 O c t o b e r 1979, Defense M i n i s t e r Chamran h e l d t h a t the o u s t e r o f r a n k i n g o f f i c e r s would be conducted i n an " I s l a m i c and r e v o l u t i o n a r y n a t u r e . " 4 S h o r t l y a f t e r w a r d , the c r i t e r i a t o be used i n c o n c l u d i n g which o f f i c e r s would be c a s h i e r e d was e l u c i d a t e d : i n s h o r t , any o f f i c e r who had p a r t i c i p a t e d i n , o r s a n c t i o n e d the t o r t u r e and murder o f p o l i t i c a l d i s s i d e n t s , o r who had p i l f e r e d s t a t e f u n d s , was t o be p u n i s h e d . In l a t e 1979, m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f d i s c o n t e n t and o p p o s i t i o n toward the K h o m e i n i i t e r e g i m e ' s v i s i o n s v i s - a - v i s t h e m i l i t a r y began t o s u r f a c e . The c l e r i c a l e l i t e was bent on d e m o n s t r a t i n g t h a t s e d i t i o u s o u t b u r s t s by armed f o r c e s p e r s o n n e l would be h a s t i l y quashed i n a h a r s h manner. An o p p o r t u n i t y t o do so a r o s e i n e a r l y J a n u a r y o f 1980, when a p l o t e n g i n e e r e d by a group o f m i d - l e v e l o f f i c e r s , who aimed a t s e i z i n g c o n t r o l o f Teheran and Qom, was r e v e a l e d . 5 A l l o f the c o n s p i r a t o r s were found c u l p a b l e o f h i g h t r e a s o n by 144 r e v o l u t i o n a r y t r i b u n a l s i n h u r r i e d l y conducted p r o c e e d i n g s and were summari ly e x e c u t e d . O v e r a l l , such i n c i d e n t s p r o v i d e d t h e K h o m e i n i s t s w i t h grounds t o a c c e l e r a t e the p u r g e s , t h e magnitude o f which was e v i d e n c e d on 11 F e b r u a r y , when M a j o r - G e n e r a l Mohammad H a d i Shadmehr, who had r e c e n t l y succeeded G e n e r a l G h a r a n i as c h i e f - o f - s t a f f , announced t h a t some f o u r thousand men had been f o r c i b l y o u s t e d from the armed f o r c e s s i n c e t h e onse t o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n , and t h a t the s a c k i n g o f an a d d i t i o n a l 3,500 was e n v i s i o n e d . 6 On 19 F e b r u a r y , K h o m e i n i , i n a l a r g e l y u n a n t i c i p a t e d move, i n f o r m a l l y d e l e g a t e d h i s a u t h o r i t y as supreme commander t o P r e s i d e n t B a n i - S a d r . Khomeini h e l d t h a t the r a t i o n a l e b e h i n d t h i s d e c i s i o n was based on the b e l i e f t h a t a " c e n t r a l i z a t i o n " o f command and c o n t r o l would h a s t e n the p r o c e s s o f p l a c i n g the armed f o r c e s on an I s l a m i c o r i e n t a t i o n . However, t h i s development f a i l e d t o boos t the s a g g i n g mora le o f t h e r e g u l a r m i l i t a r y groups o r t o e f f e c t a d i m i n u t i o n o f the p a r a l y z i n g c o n f u s i o n w i t h i n the m i l i t a r y command s t r u c t u r e t h a t stemmed from the p u r g e s . The l a t t e r quandary was e x a c e r b a t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y by t h e a b o r t i v e e f f o r t u n d e r t a k e n by an Amer ican commando team t o r e s c u e the hos tages i n T e h e r a n , which t r a n s p i r e d i n A p r i l ; i t was the churchmen's c o n t e n t i o n t h a t the f a i l u r e o f the navy and a i r f o r c e t o d e t e c t and thwart t h i s i n t r u s i o n r e p r e s e n t e d a g r o s s d e r e l i c t i o n o f t h e i r b a s i c m i s s i o n o f s a f e g u a r d i n g 145 I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y and , a c c o r d i n g l y , a f u r t h e r h i g h - l e v e l purge was e x e c u t e d . 7 A l t h o u g h he d e s i r e d t o i n s t i l l a semblance o f o r d e r and t o assuage t h e u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h i n t h e r a n k s , B a n i - S a d r , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f K h o m e i n i 1 s g e s t u r e o f a c c o r d i n g him nominal c o n t r o l o v e r the armed f o r c e s , encountered s t i f f o p p o s i t i o n from a number o f c l e r i c a l e x t r e m i s t s s e r v i n g on the Supreme N a t i o n a l Defense C o u n c i l , which f u n c t i o n e d as a m i l i t a r y o v e r s i g h t body . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the p a t t e r n o f a t tempted u p r i s i n g s and subsequent purges c o n t i n u e d . On 2 3 May, a mutinous e f f o r t mounted by a shadowy group w i t h i n the army, known as the "Army o f I r a n i a n Freedom S e e k e r s , " was c r u s h e d by l o y a l i s t t r o o p s . 8 A n d , on 13 J u l y , i t was announced t h a t a much more s e r i o u s , w idespread r e b e l l i o n , code-named "Red A l e r t , " which i n v o l v e d t r o o p s a t g a r r i s o n s i n Hamadan, A h v a z , and T e h e r a n , had been put down. In the wake o f t h i s i n c i d e n t some f i v e hundred i n s u r r e c t i o n i s t s were a r r e s t e d . 9 Khomeini was t a k e n aback by the scope o f the J u l y r e b e l l i o n and , i n r e s p o n s e , he extended h i s p e r s o n a l s a n c t i o n t o t h e a d o p t i o n o f a h a r d e r l i n e toward the r e g u l a r m i l i t a r y as a means o f f o r e s t a l l i n g any f u r t h e r e p i s o d e s o f t h i s n a t u r e . A number o f h i g h I s l a m i c j u r i s t s accommodated t h e supreme c l e r i c by met ing out 140 dea th sentences t o t h o s e c o n v i c t e d o f d i r e c t i n v o l v e m e n t . In a d d i t i o n , a t t h i s p o i n t , Khomein i demonstrated h i s unhappiness w i t h the l a c k o f e f f e c t i v e n e s s and the l a n g u i d pace o f the d r i v e t o 146 o v e r h a u l the r e g u l a r m i l i t a r y when he in formed the head o f t h e n a t i o n a l gendarmer ie , Z a h i r Nezod, t h a t : I want a s t r o n g independent army f r e e o f any c o n t a m i n a t i o n s . Purge t h i s army o f any c o n t a m i n a t i o n s and b u i l d an I s l a m i c army, and t h e n the n a t i o n w i l l p l a c e i t i n i t s h e a r t . 1 0 O v e r a l l , by September o f 1980, some twe lve thousand I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l had been f o r c i b l y e x p e l l e d . Of t h e s e , t e n thousand came from the army, w h i l e the o t h e r two thousand were navy and a i r f o r c e s e r v i c e m e n . 1 1 Moreover , a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f those sacked were m i d - l e v e l and s e n i o r o f f i c e r s , r e s u l t i n g i n a v i r t u a l breakdown o f the command e s t a b l i s h m e n t s o f a l l t h r e e r e g u l a r branches o f the m i l i t a r y w h i c h , i n t u r n , i n h i b i t e d the d e v i s i n g and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a v i a b l e p l a n o f n a t i o n a l de fense f o r t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . U n q u e s t i o n a b l y , t h i s c o n d i t i o n s i g n i f i c a n t l y added t o t h e n a t i o n ' s exposure t o s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . The c a p a b i l i t y o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n t o m i l i t a r i l y r e s p o n d t o e x t e r n a l a g g r e s s i o n i n an e f f e c t i v e and t i m e l y manner was a l s o c o n s i d e r a b l y weakened by the hea ted i n s t i t u t i o n a l r i v a l r y and mutual s u s p i c i o n between the r e g u l a r branches o f the m i l i t a r y and the r e v o l u t i o n a r y f o r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t between the army and the R e v o l u t i o n a r y G u a r d s . Indeed, K h o m e i n i ' s c h i e f impetus f o r o r g a n i z i n g the R e v o l u t i o n a r y G u a r d s , the f o r m a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f which was d e c l a r e d by t h e Imam on 5 May 1979, stemmed from h i s p e r s o n a l b e l i e f , s h a r e d by h i s 147 c l e r i c a l c o l l e a g u e s , t h a t a r e d u c t i o n o f t h e r a n k s o f the m i l i t a r y g r o u p i n g s deve loped by the t o p p l e d r e g a l government , as w e l l as t h e p l a c i n g o f watchdog, r e v o l u t i o n a r y committees w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l u n i t s o f the r e g u l a r m i l i t a r y , would not s u f f i c e i n p r o v i d i n g an adequate l e v e l o f p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t the p o s s i b i l i t y o f a m i l i t a r y - i n s p i r e d coup d ' e t a t . 1 2 One o f the b a s i c t a s k s a s s i g n e d t o the Pasdaran by t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e was t o a c t as a c o u n t e r w e i g h t t o the r e g u l a r army. T h i s was i n consonance w i t h the f o r c e ' s c a r d i n a l m i s s i o n , which was c l e a r l y s p e l l e d out i n i t s f o u n d i n g c h a r t e r , o f s a f e g u a r d i n g the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n from c h a l l e n g e s by b o t h domes t i c and f o r e i g n c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y r e a c t i o n a r i e s . I n i t i a l l y , the R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards were p l a c e d under the gu idance o f a Command C o u n c i l which was s t a f f e d e x c l u s i v e l y by a number o f u l t r a i s t i c churchmen headed by A y a t o l l a h Hasan L a h u t i , a l o n g - s t a n d i n g c o n f i d a n t o f K h o m e i n i . Beyond e s t a b l i s h i n g a command s t r u c t u r e w h o l l y a l o o f from the r e g u l a r army and t h e Government, the K h o m e i n i s t s endeavored t o e l i m i n a t e the R e v o l u t i o n a r y G u a r d s ' dependency upon t h e army f o r armaments and m u n i t i o n s . Toward t h i s end , a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f m a t e r i a l was f o r c e f u l l y a c q u i s i t i o n e d from t h e army, and s e p a r a t e bases and magazines were e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a s d a r a n . From i t s i n c e p t i o n , the R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards evoked a c r i m o n i o u s , and a t t imes v i o l e n t , o p p o s i t i o n from 148 the I r a n i a n army. By and l a r g e , the v y i n g between the army and t h e R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards f o r c o n t r o l o v e r t h e v a s t s t o c k p i l e o f m i l i t a r y hardware amassed by t h e Shah s e r v e d t o d i m i n i s h c o o p e r a t i o n i n t h e c r u c i a l t a s k o f m o n i t o r i n g t h r e a t s from abroad and ward ing o f f f o r e i g n i n t r u s i o n s . Beyond the adverse e f f e c t s upon mora le and e f f e c t i v e n e s s f o s t e r e d by the r a t h e r c h a o t i c , p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y o v e r h a u l o f the armed f o r c e s conducted by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s , a c i t i n g o f the deployment o f t r o o p s w i t h i n I r a n i n l a t e 1980 i s i n d i s p e n s a b l e f o r a r r i v i n g a t a t h o r o u g h u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the n a t i o n ' s exposure t o the p r e c i p i t a n t I r a q i a t t a c k on K h u z e s t a n . U n r e s t among e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s i n a number o f p e r i p h e r a l p r o v i n c e s r e s u l t e d i n an u n u s u a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f combatants , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the n o r t h w e s t e r n K u r d i s h r e g i o n . A d d i t i o n a l l y , due t o a f e a r t h a t Moscow might at tempt t o grab p o r t i o n s o f n o r t h e r n I r a n , T e h e r a n was prompted t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y augment t h e number o f t r o o p s s t a t i o n e d a l o n g the S o v i e t f r o n t i e r i n t h e a r e a a d j a c e n t t o T u r k m e n i s t a n and the T r a n s c a u c a s i a n a r e a west o f the C a s p i a n S e a . The d e s i r e f o r q u e l l i n g the domes t i c e t h n i c u p r i s i n g s , as w e l l as d e t e r r i n g a S o v i e t i n t r u s i o n , n e c e s s i t a t e d a r o t a t i o n o f t r o o p s away from the common f r o n t i e r w i t h I r a q . A n d , a l t h o u g h a s i z a b l e c o n t i n g e n t o f R e v o l u t i o n a r y G u a r d s , a l o n g w i t h u n i t s o f t h e r e g u l a r army, were s e n t t o c o n f r o n t I r a q i f o r c e s and c o u n t e r - 149 r e v o l u t i o n a r i e s i n p r o x i m i t y t o the c e n t r a l b o r d e r hamlets o f Karand G h a r b , Es lamabad, and S a r - e P o l - e Zahab, i n J u l y o f 1 9 8 0 , 1 3 a t t h e t ime o f the I r a q i i r r u p t i o n i n September, o n l y t h r e e a t t e n u a t e d army d i v i s i o n s were p o s i t i o n e d n e a r t h e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 7 5 0 - m i l e - l o n g I r a n i a n - I r a q i f r o n t i e r : i n the n o r t h , one i n f a n t r y d i v i s i o n was .based a t S a n a d e j ; one armored d i v i s i o n was d e p l o y e d i n Kermanshah, which s t r a d d l e s t h e c e n t r a l segment o f t h e b o r d e r ; and , an a d d i t i o n a l armored d i v i s i o n was s t a t i o n e d i n Khuzes tan near A h v a z . 1 4 The p a u c i t y o f combatants i n t h e v i c i n i t y o f t h e b o r d e r w i t h I r a q can a l s o be p a r t i a l l y e x p l a i n e d i n terms o f the K h o m e i n i s t s 1 f e a r t h a t r o y a l i s t agent s , w i t h I r a q i a s s i s t a n c e , would be a b l e t o i n f i l t r a t e the ranks o f I r a n i a n de fense u n i t s and foment c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y s e n t i m e n t . 1 5 The f o r e g o i n g e x a m i n a t i o n demonstrates t h a t t h e t h e s i s p o s i t i n g t h e shakeup o f the I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y as an e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c t o a g g r e s s i o n i s not i n a c c u r a t e . The next s e c t i o n w i l l examine how t h i s v u l n e r a b i l i t y was h e i g h t e n e d by shor tcomings i n i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g . Exposure t o A g g r e s s i o n Due t o an Impa ired I n t e l l i g e n c e C a p a b i l i t y and I r a q i S tratagem I r a n ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o s u r p r i s e a t t a c k can a l s o be p a r t i a l l y a s c r i b e d t o the e n e r v a t i o n o f the q u a l i t y o f i t s i n t e l l i g e n c e network. D u r i n g the y e a r - a n d - a - h a l f p e r i o d f o l l o w i n g the r e v o l u t i o n ' s o n s e t , a l o n g w i t h the p r o f o u n d 150 revamping o f the s t r u c t u r e and fundamental m i s s i o n o f I r a n ' s de fense f o r c e s , the n a t i o n ' s e x i s t i n g i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n s were d i s b a n d e d and r e p l a c e d w i t h a number o f new, r e v o l u t i o n a r y g r o u p i n g s , which i n c l u d e d t h e f o l l o w i n g : the D a ' e r e S i y a s i I d e o l o g i k [ P o l i t i c a l I d e o l o g i c a l C i r c l e ] , which was a s s i g n e d t h e c h i e f t a s k o f f o s t e r i n g an a f f i n i t y f o r t r a d i t i o n a l I s l a m i c z e a l among I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l ; t h e Gorough Zarb [ S t r i k e G r o u p ] , which a c t e d as a c o n s t a b u l a r y w i t h i n the armed f o r c e s ; and the A n j u m a n i - i - I s l a m [ I s l a m i c S o c i e t y ] , which was founded t o d e t e c t and stamp out c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y d i s s i d e n c e w i t h i n t h e m i l i t a r y . 1 6 B a s i c a l l y , the focus o f the f l e d g l i n g i n t e l l i g e n c e groups was p l a c e d on c h e c k i n g i n t e r n a l s u b v e r s i o n . C o n s e q u e n t l y , I r a n i a n i n t e l l i g e n c e a f f o r d e d an inadequate l e v e l o f a t t e n t i o n t o o b s e r v i n g and a n a l y z i n g t h e a c t i o n s and d e s i g n s o f s u r r o u n d i n g Arab s t a t e s . T h i s f a c t o r s tands out as a key e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e I r a q i e l i t e ' s a b i l i t y t o r e a l i z e a s i g n i f i c a n t degree o f i n i t i a l shock . In h i n d s i g h t , t h e K h o m e i n i s t s ' b e l i e f t h a t t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y i n t e l l i g e n c e a g e n c i e s , a l o n g w i t h the P a s d a r a n , c o n s t i t u t e d ample s e c u r i t y a g a i n s t b o t h i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l t h r e a t s t o t h e r e v o l u t i o n , appears r a t h e r i m p o l i t i c i n l i g h t o f t h e f a c t t h a t t h e l a t t e r was not v i g o r o u s l y m o n i t o r e d . M o r e o v e r , i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h degree o f s u r p r i s e a t t a i n e d by i n v a d i n g I r a q i f o r c e s , t h e I r a n i a n 151 c l e r i c a l e l i t e ' s f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e the e x i s t e n c e o f Baghdad's e n t e r p r i s i n g d e s i g n s , as w e l l as i t s s t r o n g d e f e n s i v e m o t i v a t i o n s f o r a sudden, p r e e m p t i v e o n s l a u g h t , i s o f c o n s i d e r a b l e i m p o r t . More p r e c i s e l y , Teheran e r r e d by not p e r c e i v i n g t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e Baath regime v iewed d i r e c t m i l i t a r y a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c as an economic and p o l i t i c a l i m p e r a t i v e . The B a a t h i s t s ' i n t e n s e , and h i g h l y d i s c e r n i b l e l o a t h i n g o f the i d e o l o g y propounded by the K h o m e i n i s t s , and t h e subsequent f e a r t h a t t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n would n e g a t i v e l y a f f e c t t h e p o l i t i c a l environment w i t h i n I r a q , c o u l d have s e r v e d as a m o n i t i o n o f t h e h i g h l i k e l i h o o d o f I r a q i a g g r e s s i o n . O v e r a l l , the K h o m e i n i s t s ' f a i l u r e t o t a k e i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h i s r e a d i l y apparent i n d i c a t o r o f a p o s s i b l e a t t a c k remains p a r a d o x i c a l . In a d d i t i o n t o an inadequate m i l i t a r y and p o l i t i c a l i n t e l l i g e n c e c a p a b i l i t y , the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s exposure t o shock was f u r t h e r h e i g h t e n e d by I r a q i d e c e p t i o n . I n i t i a l l y , a n o t a b l e component o f the d e c e p t i o n campaign waged by the B a a t h i s t s was t o r e p e a t e d l y d i s m i s s the l i k e l i h o o d o f an I r a q i o n s l a u g h t on the grounds t h a t Baghdad was a l t o g e t h e r a v e r s e t o an armed c o n f l i c t w i t h a " b r o t h e r " I s l a m i c s t a t e . T h i s p o s i t i o n was f i r s t e n u n c i a t e d by T a r i q A z i z i n December o f 1979, when he charged t h a t f o r I r a q " i t would be i m p o s s i b l e t o l a u n c h an o f f e n s i v e a g a i n s t a Mus l im n e i g h b o r . " 1 7 F u r t h e r m o r e , the Baath e l i t e sought t o c o n c e a l i t s a g g r e s s i v e d e s i g n s by p u t t i n g f o r t h numerous open 152 p l e d g e s t h a t I r a q was t r u l y d e s i r o u s o f p a c i f i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h I r a n . F o r i n s t a n c e , on 10 September, t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t r y r e l e a s e d an o f f i c i a l s tatement which h e l d t h a t Baghdad d i d not seek war w i t h T e h e r a n , and t h a t i t d i d not aim a t a g g r a n d i z i n g any I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y . 1 8 L a t e r , when f r i c t i o n between t h e two t r a d i t i o n a l l y f e u d i n g s t a t e s began t o r i s e , p a r t i c u l a r l y over t e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e s , Baath o f f i c i a l s adopted a more c o n v i n c i n g p l o y o f a s s e r t i n g t h a t , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f f r o n t i e r c l a s h e s , Baghdad d i d no t a n t i c i p a t e the ou tbreak o f an a c t u a l war w i t h the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . 1 9 In f a c t , i t appears t h a t the Baath e l i t e began t o d e l i b e r a t e l y magnify the importance o f t h e t e r r i t o r i a l i s s u e as a c a u s a l f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the b u r g e o n i n g o f i n t e r s t a t e t e n s i o n . T h i s s t ra tagem was c h i e f l y employed t o c o v e r up the B a a t h i s t s 1 s e m i n a l o b j e c t i v e : the f o r c e d d o w n f a l l o f the K h o m e i n i i t e reg ime . In more s p e c i f i c t erms , Baghdad sought t o focus a t t e n t i o n on the d i s p u t e o v e r the Q a s r - e - S h i r i n s a l i e n t , which i t c l a i m e d was t o have been ceded t o I r a q i n compl iance w i t h the A l g i e r s agreement . A c o r o l l a r y o b j e c t i v e o f f o c u s i n g a t t e n t i o n on the c e n t r a l s e c t o r o f the common f r o n t i e r was t o d e t r a c t t h e c l e r i c s ' r e g a r d away from K h u z e s t a n , the f o r c e d a n n e x a t i o n o f w h i c h , t o r e i t e r a t e , Baghdad b e l i e v e d would e f f e c t the d e p o s a l o f the m i n i s t e r i a l e l i t e . In consonance w i t h t h i s d e s i g n , d u r i n g the four-month p e r i o d p r e c e d i n g the main 153 t h r u s t i n t o K h u z e s t a n , I r a q i f o r c e s began t o s t a g e a t t a c k s on v a r i o u s I r a n i a n towns a l o n g the c e n t r a l f r o n t i e r r e g i o n , i n c l u d i n g D e h l o r a n , Mehran, and Nasrabad . In a d d i t i o n , on 31 May 1980, I r a q i a i r c r a f t and tanks l a u n c h e d a c o o r d i n a t e d a t t a c k a g a i n s t v a r i o u s p o i n t s w i t h i n I r a n ' s b o r d e r p r o v i n c e o f K e r m a n s h a h . 2 0 A n d , i n l a t e A u g u s t , I r a q i n i t i a t e d a sudden i n c r e a s e i n the number o f t r o o p s i n t h e Q a s r - e - S h i r i n a r e a , a development t h a t p r e c l u d e d an o u t r i g h t m i l i t a r y o c c u p a t i o n o f t h e t r a c t and a d e c l a r a t i o n from Baghdad t h a t a p o r t i o n o f I r a q i t e r r i t o r y , which had l o n g been under i l l e g a l , f o r c e d I r a n i a n c o n t r o l , h a d , a t l a s t , been " l i b e r a t e d . " O v e r a l l , Baghdad aimed a t c o n v i n c i n g I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s t h a t i t s t e r r i t o r i a l a m b i t i o n s were p r i m a r i l y l i m i t e d t o Q a s r - e - S h i r i n and , i n l i g h t o f the f a c t t h a t no t i m e l y , c o n c e r t e d e f f o r t was under taken t o s o l i d i f y defense f o r c e s i n K h u z e s t a n , t h i s s u b t e r f u g e appears t o have been l a r g e l y s u c c e s s f u l . In summing up , based on t h e f o r e g o i n g e v i d e n c e , i t can be i n f e r r e d t h a t a c o m b i n a t i o n o f f a u l t y i n t e l l i g e n c e a n a l y s i s and v a r i o u s e f f o r t s a t d e c e p t i o n u n d e r t a k e n by Baghdad s i g n i f i c a n t l y f u r t h e r e d T e h e r a n ' s i n a b i l i t y t o r e a l i z e s t r a t e g i c warn ing o f the looming I r a q i i n r o a d . V u l n e r a b i l i t y Evoked bv Domest ic P o l i t i c a l Disagreement H a v i n g d i s c u s s e d t h e e x t e n t t o which m i l i t a r y and i n t e l l i g e n c e shor tcomings added t o I r a n ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o 154 s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , the a n a l y s i s w i l l now t u r n t o the d e b i l i t a t i n g e f f e c t s t h a t p o l i t i c a l and e t h n i c d i v i s i o n s had upon t h e n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , t h e f i n a l v a r i a b l e t o be examined i n t h i s c h a p t e r . E a r l i e r , I examined a s p e c t s o f t h i s c o n d i t i o n i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h Baghdad's p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y . A t t h i s j u n c t u r e , I w i l l a n a l y z e t h e r i s i n g i n t e r n a l f r a g m e n t a t i o n c l o s e l y , f o r t h i s f a c t o r i s c r u c i a l i n g r a s p i n g the exposure o f I r a n t o a g g r e s s i o n . I t i s o f foremost importance i n t h i s r e g a r d t o note t h a t , i n the i n i t i a l months f o l l o w i n g P a h l a v i ' s d e p a r t u r e , t h e i d e o l o g i c a l g u l f between t h e l a y and d i v i n e e lements t h a t had c o o p e r a t e d i n the r e v o l u t i o n a r y e f f o r t widened p e r c e p t i b l y . A t the o u t s e t , Khomeini i n s i s t e d t h a t v a r i o u s p o l i t i c a l groups would be a l l o w e d t o f r e e l y d i s s e m i n a t e t h e i r i d e a s , " f o r i n I s l a m t h e r e has been a t r a d i t i o n o f t o l e r a n c e . " 2 1 However, the p r o f e s s e d l e n i e n c y toward p o l i t i c a l p l u r a l i s m was mere ly a d e c e p t i o n used by the K h o m e i n i s t s t o f o r e s t a l l the emergence o f any major sch i sms w i t h i n t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y movement p r i o r t o t h e o v e r t h r o w i n g o f t h e monarchy; b u t , once t h i s o v e r r i d i n g , immediate end was a t t a i n e d , t h e " w i l l i n g n e s s " o f the I s l a m i c z e a l o t s t o b r o o k t h e p r o p o u n d i n g o f c o u n t e r v a i l i n g i d e o l o g i e s soon p r o v e d i l l u s o r y . In c o n t r a s t t o t h e i r i n i t i a l p o s i t i o n , the churchmen soon i n i t i a t e d a campaign t o c o n s o l i d a t e t h e i r dominance o v e r I r a n and t o e f f e c t a d i m i n u t i o n o f the power 155 o f s e c u l a r p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s . By and l a r g e , Khomeini b e l i e v e d t h a t o n l y a w h o l l y p a s t o r a l p o l i t y c o u l d remedy the d u a l , l o n g - s u f f e r e d encumbrances o f Western i m p e r i a l e x p l o i t a t i o n o f I r a n ' s n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and v i o l e n t r e p r e s s i o n o f the masses by t h e c e n t r a l government. I n consonance w i t h t h e i r aim o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a t h e o c r a t i c system o f government, the S h i ' i t e t r a d i t i o n a l i s t s i n s t i t u t e d s e v e r a l e x t r a o r d i n a r y I s l a m i c o r g a n i z a t i o n s t h a t came t o o p e n l y c h a l l e n g e t e m p o r a l p a r t i e s . A main r e v o l u t i o n a r y g r o u p i n g was the c a b a l i s t i c R e v o l u t i o n a r y C o u n c i l , which c o n s i s t e d o f a h a n d f u l o f esteemed I s l a m i c s c h o l a r s who had o r g a n i z e d under the gu idance o f Khomeini i n J a n u a r y o f 1978. The R e v o l u t i o n a r y C o u n c i l emerged as an o p p o s i n g , de f a c t o c e n t e r o f p o l i t i c a l power t o the de j u r e Bazargan r e g i m e . In a d d i t i o n t o the o b s t r u c t i v e a c t i o n s o f t h i s c e n t r a l c l e r i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n , the Government 's e f f o r t s t o r e s t o r e i n t e r n a l o r d e r were hampered a t the r e g i o n a l and g r a s s r o o t s l e v e l by r e v o l u t i o n a r y committees , which were a c c o r d e d u n q u a l i f i e d s u p p o r t by K h o m e i n i . The quandary e n c o u n t e r e d by Bazargan was f u r t h e r compounded by the f o r m a t i o n o f armed bands t h a t were a t t a c h e d t o each r e v o l u t i o n a r y committee and , w h i c h , demonstrated a p r o p e n s i t y f o r v a r i o u s e x t r a - l e g a l m a c h i n a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h e making o f a r b i t r a r y a r r e s t s and the c o n f i s c a t i o n o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y . 2 2 156 Proponents o f l a y r u l e became i n c r e a s i n g l y vexed by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s ' m o n o c r a t i c i n t e n t i o n s . A n d , m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f t h e i r mount ing f r u s t r a t i o n i n c l u d e d t h e r e s i g n a t i o n i n A p r i l o f 1979 o f F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Kar im S a n j a b i , who c i t e d the c l e r i c a l c l i q u e ' s o b s t r u c t i o n o f the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s , wh ich he denounced as the p r i n c i p a l impediment t o the r e a l i z a t i o n o f democracy, as t h e b a s i s f o r h i s a b d i c a t i o n . S h o r t l y a f t e r w a r d , Prime M i n i s t e r Bazargan demonstrated h i s p e r s o n a l d i s p l e a s u r e toward t h e i n t e r f e r e n c e by the e x t r a - l e g a l , p r o - K h o m e i n i g r o u p i n g s by c h a r g i n g t h a t t h e i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n was tantamount t o a "government w i t h one hundred c h i e f s . " 2 3 However, r a t h e r t h a n e f f e c t i n g any s u b s t a n t i a l improvement i n the t ense domes t i c p o l i t i c a l env ironment , the above a c t i o n s and charges s e r v e d t o encourage t h e churchmen t o s t e p up t h e i r e f f o r t s t o mar the image o f the s e c u l a r i s t s . F o r example, on 15 September, the Bazargan regime was a s s a i l e d f o r f a i l i n g t o make any s i g n i f i c a n t headway i n i m p r o v i n g the l o t o f I r a n ' s masses. The P r e m i e r responded by h o l d i n g t h a t he l a c k e d the r e q u i s i t e power t o e f f e c t any s u b s t a n t i v e change, a l l u d i n g t o h i s regime as "a k n i f e w i t h o u t a b l a d e . " 2 4 A f u r t h e r i l l u s t r a t i o n o f the I s l a m i c i s t s ' d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o r i d the n a t i o n o f t e m p o r a l i s t s came on 19 September, when K h o m e i n i , w h i l e a d d r e s s i n g m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l a t an a i r base i n I s f a h a n , admonished t h a t " a l l opponents o f h i s I s l a m i c r u l e would be d e s t r o y e d . " 2 5 The 157 Government was l a r g e l y u n a b l e t o e f f e c t i v e l y re spond t o o v e r t t h r e a t s o f t h i s n a t u r e . A n d , the coup de g r a c e f o r B a z a r g a n ' s t e n u r e o c c u r r e d on 4 November, when t h e U . S . Embassy was o c c u p i e d by p r o - c l e r i c a l z e a l o t s . Bazargan i m m e d i a t e l y i n d i c a t e d t h a t he was u n w i l l i n g t o brook t h i s b r a z e n t r a n s g r e s s i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l law; f o l l o w i n g a f u t i l e e f f o r t t o s e c u r e t h e r e l e a s e o f the A m e r i c a n s , the Prime M i n i s t e r r e s i g n e d on 6 November, a move which p o r t e n d e d the waning o f the power o f the l a y o p p o s i t i o n . Bazargan was succeeded as head-of -government by A b o l h a s s a n B a n i - S a d r , who emerged as the v i c t o r i n the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s i n i t i a l p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n s h e l d on 25 J a n u a r y 1980. B a n i - S a d r , who had s t u d i e d t h e o l o g y and law a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Teheran d u r i n g the l a t e 1950s, p l a y e d an a c t i v e r o l e i n the a n t i - m o n a r c h i a l movement as a member o f the N a t i o n a l F r o n t . 2 6 The i d e o l o g y espoused by B a n i - S a d r compr i sed a c o n s i d e r a b l e I s l a m i c b e a r i n g , tempered by an a v e r s i o n t o a u t h o r i t a r i a n i s m ; h i s v i s i o n o f an i d e a l p o l i t y was one g u i d e d by an observance o f S h i ' i s m , w i t h o u t a c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l power i n a c e n t r a l a u t h o r i t y . 2 7 To B a n i - S a d r , a d i f f u s i o n o f power t h r o u g h a network o f l o c a l mosques would s e r v e as a v i a b l e bu lwark a g a i n s t the emergence o f an a u t o c r a t i c government. However, the i d e a o f d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f a u t h o r i t y was no t w e l l r e c e i v e d i n Qom. T h i s was r e a d i l y d i s c e r n e d by B a n i - S a d r who, s i m i l a r t o h i s p r e d e c e s s o r , began t o 158 demonstrate r e s e r v a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e wisdom o f t h e K h o m e i n i s t s 1 p o l i t i c a l d e s i g n s s h o r t l y a f t e r he assumed o f f i c e . B a n i - S a d r ' s s k e p t i c i s m , a l o n g w i t h a v o i c i n g o f o p p o s i t i o n , brought about the onset o f a f u r t h e r round o f f r i c t i o n between the de j u r e and de f a c t o e l i t e s . The ongo ing impasse over the deta inment o f the Amer ican d i p l o m a t s p r o v e d t o be p a r t i c u l a r l y p r o b l e m a t i c f o r the r e l a t i o n s between the P r e s i d e n t and the churchmen; the f o r m e r ' s open and r e p e a t e d condemnations o f the h o l d i n g o f the hos tages evoked the i r e o f a number o f p o w e r f u l c l e r i c s . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f the K h o m e i n i s t s ' u n h a p p i n e s s , B a n i - S a d r became i n c r e a s i n g l y c r i t i c a l o f the s t u d e n t c a p t o r s who, on one o c c a s i o n , he denounced as " d i c t a t o r s who have c r e a t e d a government w i t h i n a g o v e r n m e n t . " 2 8 Two at tempts by the P r e s i d e n t t o g a i n the r e l e a s e o f t h e hos tages were dashed by K h o m e i n i ' s i n t e r v e n t i o n i n the i m b r o g l i o on b e h a l f o f the s t u d e n t s : on 10 M a r c h , Khomeini announced t h a t envoys from the U n i t e d N a t i o n s , who had come t o I r a n t o h o l d i n t e r v i e w s w i t h t h e h o s t a g e s , w i t h t h e consent o f B a n i - S a d r , would have t o p u b l i c l y acknowledge the e x t e n t o f the invo lvement o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s i n the r e p r e s s i o n c a r r i e d out by the P a h l a v i regime b e f o r e s e e i n g t h e c a p t i v e s ; and , on 7 A p r i l , the Imam d e c i d e d , c o n t r a r y t o t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s w i s h e s , t h a t the Amer icans would remain under t h e c o n t r o l o f the s t u d e n t s u n t i l the c o n v e n i n g o f the y e t - t o - b e - e l e c t e d n a t i o n a l l e g i s l a t u r e . 2 9 O v e r a l l , the 159 hostage a f f a i r emerged as a s e r i o u s c h a l l e n g e t o t h e a u t h o r i t y o f t h e Government, and s e r v e d t o d i m i n i s h the s t a n d i n g o f B a n i - S a d r w i t h i n the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . F o l l o w i n g the open c l a s h between Teheran and Qom o v e r t h e f a t e o f the Amer ican d e t a i n e e s , a h e i g h t e n i n g o f s e c t a r i a n w r a n g l i n g o c c u r r e d as Khomeini i n t e n s i f i e d h i s e f f o r t s t o purge o f f i c i a l s opposed t o h i s program o f g r o u n d i n g t h e body p o l i t i c on a r i g i d I s l a m i c f o u n d a t i o n . I n pursuance o f t h i s end, t h e supreme churchmen demanded t h a t B a n i - S a d r d i s m i s s a l l members o f h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n who demonstrated " i n s u f f i c i e n t z e a l f o r the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . " 3 0 However, t h e P r e s i d e n t d i d not b e l i e v e t h a t i t was incumbent upon him t o comply w i t h such o v e r b e a r i n g i m p o s i t i o n s put f o r t h by t h e c l e r i c a l l e a d e r s h i p . And , not s u r p r i s i n g l y , by t h i s j u n c t u r e , the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y , the main p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n e s t a b l i s h e d by the f u n d a m e n t a l i s t s , was c o n s p i r i n g t o unseat the Government. On 20 J u n e , a p l o t t o depose B a n i - S a d r , d e s i g n e d by Hasan A y a t , a member o f the C e n t r a l Committee o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y , was exposed . The d i s c o v e r y o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y - i n s p i r e d i n t r i g u e u n d e r s c o r e d the depth o f t h e r i f t between t h e moderates who f a v o r e d a c l e a r l y d e f i n e d d e m a r c a t i o n between w o r l d l y and s p i r i t u a l a f f a i r s and t h e S h i ' i t e r a d i c a l s . A f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n o f B a n i - S a d r ' s a l r e a d y c i r c u m s c r i b e d power o c c u r r e d on 20 J u l y , when K h o m e i n i , i n a 160 d i c t a t o r i a l g e s t u r e , announced t h a t , due t o the i n c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e P r e s i d e n t t o c o r r e c t v a r i o u s i n t e r n a l p r o b l e m s , c o n t r o l o v e r the Government would be d e v o l v e d t o P a r l i a m e n t . T h i s a c t i o n s e r v e d t o e x a c e r b a t e the c h a o t i c atmosphere i n the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , f o r the c l e r i c a l m a j o r i t y t h a t h e l d sway o v e r t h e P a r l i a m e n t had l i t t l e e x p e r i e n c e i n p o l i t i c a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o r economic a f f a i r s . F u r t h e r f r i c t i o n between the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y and B a n i - S a d r a r o s e over the s e l e c t i o n o f a rep lacement f o r former Prime M i n i s t e r B a z a r g a n . In t h e i r eagerness t o s e c u r e the appointment o f a f u n d a m e n t a l i s t - o r i e n t e d p r e m i e r , the c a d r e o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y demonstrated a s c o r n f o r c o n s t i t u t i o n a l i s m by m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t P a r l i a m e n t , r a t h e r t h a n B a n i - S a d r , s h o u l d s e l e c t the pr ime m i n i s t e r . However, the d e s i g n a t i o n o f t h e h e a d - o f - s t a t e was one o f the c l e a r l y enumerated p r e r o g a t i v e s a c c o r d e d t o the head-of -government by the C o n s t i t u t i o n o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c and , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f the Imam's e x t r a - l e g a l t r a n s f e r o f power t o the l e g i s l a t u r e , B a n i - S a d r a t tempted t o e x e r c i s e h i s powers as P r e s i d e n t , naming U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y o f I n t e r i o r M o s t a f a M i r S a l i m , a p r o v e n champion o f t h e r u l e o f law, as h i s nominee f o r p r e m i e r . 3 1 B u t , B a n i - S a d r was u n a b l e t o muster the r e q u i s i t e s u p p o r t t o r e a l i z e t h e c o n f i r m a t i o n o f S a l i m and, on 11 A u g u s t , i t was announced t h a t P a r l i a m e n t had a l t e r n a t i v e l y s e l e c t e d 161 Mohammad A l i R o j a i , a proponent o f the K h o m e i n i i t e agenda, t o assume t h e o f f i c e o f pr ime m i n i s t e r . F o l l o w i n g the u n s u c c e s s f u l b i d by B a n i - S a d r t o b l o c k the i n s t a l l a t i o n o f a c l e r i c a l f a n a t i c as pr ime m i n i s t e r , he t h e n endeavored t o p r e v e n t R o j a i from s t a f f i n g the C a b i n e t w i t h m i n i s t e r s o f h i s i d e o l o g i c a l s t r i p e , an e f f o r t which f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e d p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y . On 9 September, B a n i - S a d r admonished t h a t he would r e j e c t a l l p r o s p e c t i v e c a b i n e t members who were " p a r t o f the m i n o r i t y group bent on d e s p o t i s m and foment ing s u s p i c i o n . " 3 2 B a n i - S a d r ' s r e m o n s t r a t i o n s , which were grounded on the p o s i t i o n t h a t an u n q u a l i f i e d s u b s e r v i e n c e t o the d i c t a t e s o f Khomeini was a n t i t h e t i c a l t o the r e a l i z a t i o n o f a d e m o c r a t i c and p r o g r e s s i v e p o l i t y , evoked an o u t p o u r i n g o f c o u n t e r c h a r g e s by a number o f the Imam's devout s u p p o r t e r s ; f o r example, s h o r t l y a f t e r assuming o f f i c e , Prime M i n i s t e r R o j a i charged t h a t no e l e c t e d o f f i c i a l had t h e r i g h t t o impugn t h e c l e r i c a l l e a d e r s h i p . In a d d i t i o n , A y a t o l l a h Hashemi- R a f s a n j a n i conveyed t h e s en t iment o f h i s c o l l e a g u e s toward t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s b u r g e o n i n g o p p o s i t i o n by a s s e r t i n g t h a t " a f t e r t h e r e v o l u t i o n we cannot t o l e r a t e a l i b e r a l g o v e r n i n g o u r c o u n t r y i n such a way t h a t the r e v o l u t i o n i s d e s t r o y e d o r d e f l e c t e d from I s l a m . " 3 3 By and l a r g e , t h e I s l a m i c t r a d i t i o n a l i s t s r e g a r d e d K h o m e i n i , because o f h i s p o s i t i o n as the n a t i o n ' s paramount e c c l e s i a s t i c , as beyond r e p r o a c h and l o o k e d upon c r i t i c i s m 162 o f h i m , p a r t i c u l a r l y by laymen, as tantamount t o t r e a s o n . A c c o r d i n g l y , by t h i s p o i n t , the f r i c t i o n between B a n i - S a d r and the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y had become q u i t e pronounced , and the ongoing b i c k e r i n g between t h e l a y and c l e r i c a l camps had exhausted K h o m e i n i ' s p a t i e n c e . On 13 September, t h e Imam i m p l o r e d t h e de j u r e l e a d e r s h i p t o t e r m i n a t e p o l i t i c a l i n f i g h t i n g w i t h t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y and t o c h a n n e l i t s e f f o r t s toward a d d r e s s i n g the major problems hampering p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and deve lopment . Khomeini a l s o d i r e c t e d some h a r s h c r i t i c i s m toward P r e m i e r R o j a i : "you have n e i t h e r put the economy i n o r d e r n o r e s t a b l i s h e d s e c u r i t y , but r a t h e r fought w i t h one a n o t h e r i n v i o l a t i o n o f I s l a m i c m o r a l i t y and l a w . " 3 4 In s h o r t , as the f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n has demons tra ted , by m i d - 1980, t h e de j u r e and de f a c t o c e n t e r s o f a u t h o r i t y were l o c k e d i n a s t r u g g l e t o shape the d i r e c t i o n o f domes t i c p o l i t i c a l and economic p o l i c y and , as a r e s u l t , v i g i l a n c e f o r e x t e r n a l t h r e a t s t o n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y was m i n i m a l . In a d d i t i o n t o the s e c u l a r - c l e r i c a l d i v i s i o n , the v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f I r a n t o an i n c u r s i o n can a l s o be p a r t i a l l y a t t r i b u t e d t o Teheran and Qom's p r e o c c u p a t i o n w i t h u n r e s t among m i n o r i t y e t h n i c groups i n o u t l y i n g r e g i o n s o f the c o u n t r y . Beyond the m a j o r i t y P e r s i a n s , modern I r a n encompasses a v e r i t a b l e mosaic o f e t h n o - 1 i n g u i s t i c g r o u p s , i n c l u d i n g A f s h a r s , A r a b s , A z e r i s , B a k h t i a r i s , B a l u c h i s , B a s s e r i s , F a r s , K u r d s , L o r s , Shahseven, Turkomans, T u r k s , 163 Q a s h q a i s , and Z a b o l i s . And a s i d e from t h e a l r e a d y ment ioned t u m u l t i n K h u z e s t a n , which was l a r g e l y fomented by the K h o m e i n i s t s 1 o b s t i n a t e r e f u s a l t o accede t o the demands o f r e g i o n a l a c t i v i s t s f o r c o n t r o l o v e r l o c a l p o l i t i c a l and economic a f f a i r s , t e n s i o n between the l a y and c l e r i c a l e l i t e s and e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s a l s o a r o s e i n o t h e r a r e a s o f I r a n , most n o t a b l y i n K u r d i s t a n . The p o l i c y o f the P a h l a v i regime had been focused on i n t e g r a t i n g the p e r i p h e r a l e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s i n t o the mains tream o f I r a n i a n s o c i e t y ; e r g o , any i n i t i a t i v e s toward t h e g r a n t i n g o f l i m i t e d autonomy t o o u t l y i n g p r o v i n c e s were vehement ly opposed by the S h a h . 3 5 The i n c i p i e n c e o f the r e v o l u t i o n brought about a r e i n v i g o r a t i o n o f t h i s l o n g - s t a n d i n g , s u p p r e s s e d a s p i r a t i o n among a number o f e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s . However, s i m i l a r t o the r o y a l i s t s , a l t h o u g h f o r d i f f e r e n t r e a s o n s , the K h o m e i n i s t s were a v e r s e t o t h e i d e a o f a f f o r d i n g l i m i t e d s e l f - g o v e r n a n c e t o I r a n ' s e t h n i c g r o u p s . The c l e r i c a l r e g i m e ' s a v e r s i o n toward such a development emanated from the b e l i e f t h a t the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a t h e o c r a c y would be hampered by an a c c e n t u a t i o n o f e t h n o - l i n g u i s t i c d i v i s i o n s . F u r t h e r m o r e , the f r a g m e n t a t i o n o f I r a n a l o n g e t h n i c l i n e s r a n c o u n t e r t o one o f the fundamental s l o g a n s championed by the churchmen: " i t i h a d mubarazeeb va p i r o o z i " [ u n i t y , s t r u g g l e , and v i c t o r y ] . 3 6 In s h o r t , t o the K h o m e i n i s t s , a h e i g h t e n i n g o f emphasis on e t h n i c i t y 164 p o r t e n d e d an a t t e n d a n t d e t r a c t i n g o f a t t e n t i o n away from S h i ' i s m and , a c c o r d i n g l y , such a development was h e l d t o be anathema. In f a c t , on one o c c a s i o n , Khomeini remarked t h a t "as f a r as I s l a m i s c o n c e r n e d , t h e r e i s no q u e s t i o n o f K u r d s , F a r s , B a l u c h i , A r a b , L o r , o r T u r k o m a n . " 3 7 W i t h r e g a r d t o de j u r e a u t h o r i t i e s , the Bazargan a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a r e d t h e c l e r i c s 1 r e p u l s i o n toward e t h n i c f a c t i o n s and , as the i n i t i a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f r e g i o n a l autonomy f a d e d , I r a n ' s e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s became r e s t i v e . Of c e n t r a l i m p o r t a n c e , r e g a r d i n g t h e h e r e i n argument t h a t i n t e r n a l d i s t u r b a n c e s r e n d e r e d I r a n open t o an i n v a s i o n , i s a c i t i n g o f the d i s q u i e t u d e t h a t emerged i n I r a n i a n K u r d i s t a n . A s e r i e s o f events t h a t c u l m i n a t e d i n d i r e c t , armed c l a s h e s between r e v o l u t i o n a r y f o r c e s l o y a l t o Khomein i and K u r d i s h n a t i o n a l i s t g u e r r i l l a s were s e t i n mot ion i n e a r l y 1979. I r a n ' s K u r d s , who i n h a b i t the n o r t h w e s t e r n r e g i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y , numbered a p p r o x i m a t e l y two m i l l i o n i n 1979. The Kurds had b r i e f l y r e a l i z e d s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r r e g i o n a l a f f a i r s i n t h e p a s t : p r i o r t o w i t h d r a w i n g from I r a n a t t h e c l o s e o f the Second Wor ld War, S o v i e t o c c u p a t i o n f o r c e s founded t h e autonomous K u r d i s h R e p u b l i c o f Mahabad. However, upon r e g a i n i n g the t h r o n e , the Shah immedia te ly d i s p a t c h e d t r o o p s t o r e s t o r e c e n t r a l c o n t r o l o v e r the r e g i o n . A t t h i s p o i n t , t h e Kurds commenced a g u e r r i l l a campaign which endured u n t i l 1967, when i t was c r u s h e d by t h e m o n a r c h i a l reg ime . B u t , w i t h the Shah ' s o u s t e r and the 165 waning o f t h e s t r e n g t h o f i n t e r n a l s e c u r i t y f o r c e s , the Kurds wasted l i t t l e t ime i n resuming e f f o r t s t o s e c u r e l i m i t e d independence . A n d , when i t became apparent t h a t n e i t h e r t h e Government nor the K h o m e i n i s t s were i n f a v o r o f g r a n t i n g p a r t i a l s e l f - g o v e r n a n c e t o e t h n i c g r o u p s , the Kurds e l e c t e d t o r e i n i t i a t e the i n s u r g e n c y . The K u r d i s h r e b e l s , c o l l e c t i v e l y known as t h e "Peshmerga," compr i sed members o f t h e K u r d i s h Democrat i c P a r t y (KDP), which was l e d by Abdulrahman Qassemloo, as w e l l as the M a o i s t Komeleh P a r t y and the Fedayeen . Beyond demands f o r a f o r m a l r e c o g n i t i o n o f l o c a l economic and p o l i t i c a l s e l f - d e t e r m i n a t i o n , as w e l l as r e s p e c t f o r c u l t u r a l and language d i s t i n c t i o n s , a d d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s o f t e n s i o n between the I s l a m i c t r a d i t i o n a l i s t s and t h e K u r d i s h i n s u r g e n t s i n c l u d e d the l a t t e r * s l e f t i s t o r i e n t a t i o n and the f a c t t h a t the m a j o r i t y o f I r a n i a n Kurds were S u n n i M u s l i m s . 3 8 The importance o f the l a t t e r f a c t o r was p r e d i c a t e d on the c l e r i c s ' s t e a d f a s t i n s i s t e n c e t h a t fundamental S h i • i s m c o n s t i t u t e d the foremost s e c t o f I s lam and t h e i r d e n u n c i a t i o n o f o t h e r f a c t i o n s o f the r e l i g i o n as h e r e t i c a l . I n i t i a l l y , Qom at tempted t o undermine t h e K u r d i s h u p r i s i n g t h r o u g h use o f the s u b t e r f u g e o f d i v i d e and c o n q u e r . In consonance w i t h t h i s d e s i g n , the K h o m e i n i s t s a c c o r d e d s u p p o r t t o the l e s s z e a l o u s l y n a t i o n a l i s t i c S h e i k Ahmad M u f t i z a d a h , the l e a d i n g c l e r i c i n S a n a d a j , the p r o v i n c i a l c a p i t a l o f K u r d i s t a n . However, t h i s s t ra tagem foundered due t o the s h a l l o w l e v e l o f M u f t i z a d a h ' s i n f l u e n c e among t h e K u r d i s h a c t i v i s t s . F o l l o w i n g the a b o r t i v e at tempt t o f o s t e r d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n t h e K u r d i s h movement, t h e I s l a m i c t r a d i t i o n a l i s t s opened a d i r e c t d i a l o g u e w i t h Qassemloo and S h e i k E z z e d i n H o s s a i n i , the c a r d i n a l K u r d i s h churchman, who beckoned from Mahabad, a c i t y i n p r o x i m i t y t o the I r a q i f r o n t i e r . I t was H o s s e i n i ' s p o s i t i o n t h a t an e x t e n s i o n o f l o c a l s o v e r e i g n t y t o I r a n ' s e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s was an i m p e r a t i v e p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r the r e a l i z a t i o n o f domes t i c s t a b i l i t y . Toward t h i s end , the Kurds a t tempted t o engender a f e e l i n g o f s o l i d a r i t y among the n a t i o n ' s e t h n i c g r o u p s . In August o f 1979, l e a d e r s o f the A r a b , Turkoman, T u r k i s h , and K u r d i s h m i n o r i t i e s convened i n Mahabad and c o n c l u d e d a j o i n t program f o r p a r t i a l autonomy. The v a r i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e p a r l e y c a l l e d upon Bazargan and Khomeini t o g r a n t a p p r o v a l t o the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f "autonomous r e g i o n s " t h a t would be governed by " r e g i o n a l p a r l i a m e n t s . 1 , 3 9 However, t h o s e who took p a r t i n the Mahabad summit c o n c u r r e d t h a t m a t t e r s r e l a t i n g t o f o r e i g n p o l i c y and defense s h o u l d remain under the purv iew o f T e h e r a n . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f the p u t t i n g f o r t h o f such c l e a r q u a l i f i c a t i o n s , no p o s i t i v e response t o the m i n o r i t i e s ' r e q u e s t s was f o r t h c o m i n g from e i t h e r the Government o r the K h o m e i n i s t s . To the c o n t r a r y , t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e op ted t o 167 d e a l w i t h the K u r d i s h and o t h e r e t h n i c a c t i v i s t s w i t h f o r c e . Beyond i s s u i n g a number o f p u n i t o r y d e c r e e s , which i n c l u d e d an o u t r i g h t p r o s c r i b i n g o f the KDP, which Khomeini d i s p a r a g i n g l y a l l u d e d t o as the " d e v i l ' s p a r t y , " 4 0 l a r g e numbers o f R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards were d i s p a t c h e d t o K u r d i s t a n . In a d d i t i o n , a d i v i s i o n o f the r e g u l a r army was s e n t t o engage the Peshmerga. S h o r t l y a f t e r a r r i v i n g i n the r e g i o n , t h e s e f o r c e s opened major d r i v e s a g a i n s t g u e r r i l l a s t r o n g h o l d s i n p r o x i m i t y t o the n o r t h w e s t e r n towns o f M a r i v a n and P i r a n s h a r . A sharp e s c a l a t i o n o f the f i g h t i n g i n K u r d i s t a n o c c u r r e d i n the f a l l o f 1979; d u r i n g O c t o b e r , K u r d i s h r e b e l s s e i z e d c o n t r o l o f Mahabad, k i l l i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y s i x t y R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards i n the p r o c e s s . A t t h i s p o i n t , bowing t o p r e s s u r e from v a r i o u s l a y o r g a n i z a t i o n s , t h e Government u n d e r t o o k an e f f o r t t o a r r a n g e a c e a s e - f i r e by s e n d i n g Defense M i n i s t e r M o s t a f a Chamran, I n t e r i o r M i n i s t e r Hashem S a b a g h i a n , and P l a n n i n g and Budget M i n i s t e r E z z a t o l l a h S a h a b i t o meet w i t h e m i s s a r i e s o f the KDP. However, s i m i l a r t o p r e v i o u s b i d s a t n e g o t i a t i n g a t e r m i n a t i o n o f h o s t i l i t i e s , t h i s l a t e s t round o f d i a l o g u e a l s o p r o v e d f r u i t l e s s . F o l l o w i n g the d i s c o n t i n u a t i o n o f the t a l k s , which the Kurds a t t r i b u t e d t o o b s t i n a c y on the p a r t o f the c l e r i c a l z e a l o t s , the KDP i s s u e d an u l t i m a t u m : a l l R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards and r e g u l a r army t r o o p s were t o be 168 withdrawn from K u r d i s t a n by 9 December. Teheran and Qom s i m p l y b a l k e d a t t h i s a r r o g a t i o n and , as a r e s u l t , the f i g h t i n g c o n t i n u e d t o e s c a l a t e . By t h i s p o i n t , the K u r d i s h l e a d e r s h i p had a r r i v e d a t t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the dominant c l e r i c a l e l i t e was bent on e s t a b l i s h i n g an a u t h o r i t a r i a n p o l i t i c a l system and t h a t r e g i o n a l autonomy would remain u n a t t a i n a b l e as l o n g as the K h o m e i n i s t s h e l d power. S h e i k H o s s e i n i e p i t o m i z e d the p o p u l a r sent iment p r e v a i l i n g i n K u r d i s t a n when he d e c l a r e d on 5 December, t h a t the " f a n a t i c men o f r e l i g i o n would g r a d u a l l y d i s a p p e a r and t h a t a f r e e government would e m e r g e . " 4 1 N o t w i t h s t a n d i n g t h i s o p t i m i s t i c o u t l o o k , a t t h i s t ime t h e r e was no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t the power o f the churchmen was a b a t i n g ; t o the c o n t r a r y , the K h o m e i n i i t e e l i t e was f a s t c o n s o l i d a t i n g i t s mastery over I r a n . In e a r l y 1980, r e g u l a r army u n i t s and R e v o l u t i o n a r y Guards s t epped up t h e i r e f f o r t s t o smash t h e i n s u r g e n c y . F o l l o w i n g an i n t e n s e , b l o o d y c l a s h on 3 F e b r u a r y , Peshmerga combatants were d r i v e n out o f the n o r t h e r n town o f Kamyaran. S h e i k H o s s e i n i responded t o the h e i g h t e n i n g o f t h e c o n f l i c t ' s i n t e n s i t y by c h a r g i n g t h a t t h e c l e r i c s were bent on foment ing "war i n K u r d i s t a n " and by c a l l i n g f o r t h e i n s t i t u t i o n o f a " s ta t e o f g e n e r a l m o b i l i z a t i o n and d e f e n s i v e r e a d i n e s s " among K u r d i s h f o r c e s . 4 2 D u r i n g e a r l y A p r i l , K u r d i s h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s m a i n t a i n e d t h a t i n d i s c r i m i n a t e a r t i l l e r y bombardment by government f o r c e s o f 169 the towns o f Sanadaj and Saqqez r e s u l t e d i n t h e deaths o f some f i f t y c i v i l i a n s , w i t h the wounding o f an a d d i t i o n a l t h r e e h u n d r e d . A n d , on 24 A p r i l , the " K u r d i s h S o c i e t y , " a p u b l i c a f f a i r s o r g a n i z a t i o n based i n T e h e r a n , c a l l e d on the U n i t e d N a t i o n s and the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Red C r o s s t o extend immediate a s s i s t a n c e t o the " s t r i c k e n K u r d i s h p e o p l e . " 4 3 By t h i s j u n c t u r e , the Government, which was headed by B a n i - S a d r , had grown weary o f the f i g h t i n g and , on 26 A p r i l , the P r e s i d e n t o r d e r e d government t r o o p s t o a v o i d f u r t h e r c o n f r o n t a t i o n s w i t h K u r d i s h combatants ; however, B a n i - S a d r d i d no t w i e l d any e f f e c t i v e c o n t r o l over the Pasdaran and , c o n s e q u e n t l y , he was l a r g e l y power le s s t o e f f e c t a complete and l a s t i n g c e s s a t i o n o f h o s t i l i t i e s i n K u r d i s t a n . O v e r a l l , the f l a r i n g o f t e n s i o n w i t h i n the n o r t h e r n K u r d i s h p r o v i n c e s and i n o t h e r p e r i p h e r a l r e g i o n s c o n s t i t u t e d a major dilemma f o r t h e Government w h i c h , a l o n g w i t h the i n t e n s e r i v a l r y w i t h t h e c l e r i c a l e x t r e m i s t s i n Qom, s e r v e d t o hamper B a n i - Sadr 's e f f o r t s t o under take e f f e c t i v e measures t o s a f e g u a r d I r a n from e x t e r n a l t h r e a t s . C o n c l u s i o n In summing up t h e main p o i n t s r a i s e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r , i t can be a c c u r a t e l y p o s t u l a t e d t h a t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n ' s a t t e n u a t e d a b i l i t y t o d e t e r e x t e r n a l a g g r e s s i o n stemmed from i n t e r n a l t u m u l t . F i r s t and foremos t , the weakening o f t h e r e a d i n e s s o f I r a n i a n m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , as w e l l as t h e l a r g e l y i n e f f i c i e n t i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g 170 c a p a b i l i t y a t the d i s p o s a l of Teheran, stand as p r i n c i p a l c a u s a l f a c t o r s u n d e r l y i n g the v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o the I r a q i s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . The n e a r l y wholesale purges o f the m i l i t a r y command and the l i q u i d a t i o n of the i n t e l l i g e n c e apparatus e s t a b l i s h e d d u r i n g the r o y a l i s t epoch, which c o n s t i t u t e d m a n i f e s t a t i o n s of the Khomeinists* fundamental o b j e c t i v e s o f r e v o l u t i o n i z i n g the armed f o r c e s and o f f o r e s t a l l i n g the mounting of c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y b i d s from t h a t q u a r t e r , served t o j e o p a r d i z e n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . O v e r a l l , the downside of the churchmen's designs of o v e r h a u l i n g the n a t i o n ' s defense and i n t e l l i g e n c e f o r c e s was t h a t , w h i l e e l i m i n a t i n g an i n t e r n a l t h r e a t t o the p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y s t a t e , the western f r o n t i e r w i t h I r a q was l e f t l a r g e l y undefended and t h e r e was no c e n t r a l a u t h o r i t y t o oversee the c o l l e c t i o n and e f f e c t i v e a n a l y s i s of i n t e l l i g e n c e p e r t a i n i n g t o the ends o f s u r r o u n d i n g s t a t e s which, i n t u r n , engendered a s e r i o u s , e x t e r n a l t h r e a t : an I r a q i i n v a s i o n . Moreover, as e x t e n s i v e l y o u t l i n e d i n t h i s chapter, the v o l a t i l e nature of the p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y p o l i t y served t o keep the a t t e n t i o n of e l i t e s , both s e c u l a r and c l e r i c a l , a f f i x e d on domestic a f f a i r s . Beyond the p o l i t i c a l i n f i g h t i n g between those who d e s i r e d a p o l i t i c a l system p r e d i c a t e d on a c l e a r d i v i s i o n of w o r l d l y and s p i r i t u a l realms and those who were v i o l e n t l y averse t o a s e p a r a t i o n o f church and s t a t e , I r a n was t o r n by a myriad of o t h e r 171 i d e o l o g i c a l elements bent on r e a l i z i n g t h e i r r e v o l u t i o n a r y a s p i r a t i o n s . C h i e f among these groups were autonomy seeking e t h n i c m i n o r i t i e s . The c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s s e n s i o n engendered by these c o n f l i c t i n g groups, which the r e a c t i o n a r y c l e r i c s sought t o e l i m i n a t e , r e s u l t e d i n a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree of i n t e r n a l c o n f u s i o n which, i n t u r n , d i m i n i s h e d the l e v e l o f a t t e n t i o n accorded t o e x t e r n a l matters by the r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime. And, although Bani-Sadr was concerned w i t h the p o s s i b i l i t y o f an i n c u r s i o n , h i s attempts t o shore up Iran's defenses were impeded by the Khomeinists. O v e r a l l , the h i g h degree of p o l i t i c a l fragmentation stands as a major e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the n a t i o n ' s l a c k o f d e f e n s i v e preparedness. 172 CHAPTER V NOTES ^ . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Domest ic S e r v i c e i n P e r s i a n , "Khomeyni D i s c u s s e s M i l i t a r y M i s s i o n , " 22 A p r i l 1979, LD221756. 2 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Domest ic S e r v i c e i n P e r s i a n , "Defense M i n i s t e r D i s c u s s e s Army," 4 O c t o b e r 1979, LD042014. 3 I b i d . 4 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Teheran Domest ic S e r v i c e i n P e r s i a n , "New Defense M i n i s t e r Comments on Army P u r g e , " 30 September 1979, LD302020. 5 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , F e b r u a r y 1980) , p . 954. 6 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , March 1980) , p . 1041. 7 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , May 1980), p . 123. 8 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , June 1980), p . 226. 9 S h a u l Bakhash, The R e i g n o f the A y a t o l l a h s : I r a n and t h e I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n (New Y o r k : B a s i c Books , I n c . , 1984) , p . 198. 1 0 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1980) , p . 433. 1 1 S h i r e e n H u n t e r , "The I r a n - I r a q War and I r a n ' s Defense P o l i c y , " i n G u l f S e c u r i t y and t h e I r a n - I r a q War, e d . Thomas N a f f (Washington, D . C : N a t i o n a l Defense U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1985) , p . 170. 173 1 2 R o u h o l l a h K. Ramazani , " I r a n ' s F o r e i g n P o l i c y : P e r s p e c t i v e s and P r o j e c t i o n s , " i n R e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n : A R e a p p r a i s a l . e d . Envour Koury and C h a r l e s MacDonald ( H y a t t s v i l l e , M a r y l a n d : I n s t i t u t e o f M i d d l e E a s t e r n and N o r t h A f r i c a n A f f a i r s , 1982), p . 21. 1 3 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1980) , p . 444. 1 4 A n t h o n y H . Cordesman, The G u l f and the S e a r c h f o r S t r a t e g i c S t a b i l i t y : S a u d i A r a b i a , t h e M i l i t a r y B a l a n c e i n t h e G u l f , and Trends i n the A r a b - I s r a e l i M i l i t a r y B a l a n c e ( B o u l d e r , C o l o r a d o : Westview P r e s s , 1984), p . 602. 1 5 H u n t e r , p . 175. 1 6 I b i d . 1 7 C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r , 19 December 1979. 1 8 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1980) , p . 558. 1 9 R o b e r t P o u l i o t , " I r a q ' s D r i v e f o r Power," Wor ld P r e s s Review 7 ( J u l y 1980):30. 2 0 T h e I r a n T i m e s . 6 June 1980. 2 1 Shameem A k h t a r , "Impact o f the I s l a m i c Movement i n I r a n on t h e R e g i o n , " P a k i s t a n H o r i z o n 1-2 (1979):88. 2 2 B a k h a s h , p . 56. 2 3 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , June 1979) , p . 197. 2 4 R a m a z a n i , p . 450. 2 5 B a k h a s h , p . 81 . 2 6 I b i d . , p . 92. 2 7 I b i d . , p . 94. 2 8 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , March 1980) , p . 1036. 2 9 I b i d . 174 3 0 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , A p r i l 1980) , p . 5. 3 1 B a k h a s h , p . 106. 3 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , O c t o b e r 1980) , p . 577. 3 3 I b i d . 3 4 I b i d . 3 5 L e n o r e G . M a r t i n , The U n s t a b l e G u l f : T h r e a t s from W i t h i n ( L e x i n g t o n , M a s s a c h u s e t t s : D . C . Heath and Company, 1984) , p . 91 . 3 6 R o b e r t Ghobad D a r i u s , "The I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n o f 1978-1979: P o t e n t i a l I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r M a j o r C o u n t r i e s i n the A r e a , " i n R e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n : A R e a p p r a i s a l , e d . Envour Koury and C h a r l e s MacDonald ( H y a t t s v i l l e , M a r y l a n d : I n s t i t u t e o f M i d d l e E a s t e r n and N o r t h A f r i c a n A f f a i r s , 1982) , p . 40. 3 7 F r e d H a l l i d a y , " I r a n i a n F o r e i g n P o l i c y S i n c e 1979: I n t e r n a t i o n a l i s m and N a t i o n a l i s m i n t h e I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n , " i n S h i ' i s m and S o c i a l P r o t e s t , e d . Juan R . I . C o l e and N i k k i R. K e d d i e (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1986) , p . 59. 3 8 V a h e P e t r o s s i a n , "Dilemmas o f the I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , " The World Today 1 (January 1980):22. 3 9 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , August 1979) , p . 362. 4 0 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , September 1979) , p . 462. 4 i n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , J a n u a r y 1980) , p . 808. 4 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , A p r i l 1980) , p . 8. 4 3 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , May 1980) , p . 121. CHAPTER VI REORIENTATION OF THE FOREIGN POLICY OF IRAN AND IRAQ: BREAKDOWN OF THE INTERSTATE STATUS QUO IN THE GULF REGION AND THE EFFECTS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT UPON IRAN'S VULNERABILITY TO AN IRAQI STRIKE The I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n e f f e c t e d a profound a l t e r a t i o n i n the power r e l a t i o n s h i p between I r a n and the v a r i o u s G u l f Arab s t a t e s . The p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o examine the nexus between the s h i f t i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y Iran's e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s agenda and i t s a t t e n d a n t a f f e c t on I r a q i f o r e i g n p o l i c y . An e f f o r t i s h e r e i n made t o demonstrate t h a t the shake-up of the r e g i o n a l s t a t u s quo e f f e c t e d a h e i g h t e n i n g of I r a q ' s r e s o l v e t o undertake a b i d a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . The i n i t i a l s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r e n t a i l s an examination o f v a r i o u s aspects of the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y , i n c l u d i n g the o v e r t h o s t i l i t y toward the l i t t o r a l monarchies, the championing of the P a l e s t i n i a n Arabs and t h e i r s t r u g g l e a g a i n s t I s r a e l i o p p r e s s i o n , as w e l l as the b i t t e r o p p o s i t i o n t o i m p e r i a l i n f l u e n c e , both American and S o v i e t , i n the Near E a s t . The main end of t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l be t o e s t a b l i s h the b a s i s f o r p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n ' s growing i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s o l a t i o n . 175 176 The second s e c t i o n c o n s i s t s o f a d i s c u s s i o n o f the Baath e l i t e ' s e f f o r t s t o e x p l o i t the i n c r e a s i n g d i s a p p r o b a t i o n toward t h e K h o m e i n i i t e regime i n o r d e r t o r e a l i z e a l o n g - s t a n d i n g d e s i g n : the a t t a i n m e n t o f hegemony o v e r the G u l f n a t i o n s . I t w i l l be shown t h a t i n l i n e w i t h t h i s end, f o l l o w i n g t h e onse t o f t h e I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n , the m o d e r a t i n g s h i f t i n I r a q ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y was r e d o u b l e d , and t h a t t h i s sudden change a f f o r d e d Baghdad a s t r o n g base o f e x t e r n a l s u p p o r t f o r i t s at tempt t o r o l l back K h o m e i n i ' s r e v o l u t i o n a r y S h i • i s m . The C o n c e p t u a l Des igns U n d e r g i r d i n g the I r a n i a n I s l a m i c i s t s ' F o r e i g n P o l i c y : The P r o p a g a t i o n o f T r a d i t i o n a l i s t S h i ' i s m and the R o l l i n g Back o f I m p e r i a l I n f l u e n c e w i t h i n the Mus l im World S i m i l a r t o the domest i c p o l i t i c a l e q u a t i o n , the r e v o l u t i o n s e t i n mot ion a major s h i f t i n the o r i e n t a t i o n o f I r a n i a n f o r e i g n p o l i c y . I n i t i a l l y , those e x e r c i s i n g sway o v e r t h e s e c u l a r regime i n Teheran advocated s u b s t a n t i v e , a l t h o u g h not r a d i c a l , change i n I r a n ' s e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s p r i o r i t i e s . Immediate ly f o l l o w i n g t h e Shah ' s exodus, i n J a n u a r y o f 1979, Prime M i n i s t e r B a k h t i a r , i n an e f f o r t t o b o l s t e r h i s s a g g i n g s u p p o r t w i t h i n the r e v o l u t i o n a r y movement by a p p e a r i n g as a champion o f a n t i - i m p e r i a l i s m and n o n - a l i g n m e n t , o r d e r e d the f o r m a l s e v e r i n g o f d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h I s r a e l and South A f r i c a . Upon assuming power, Mehdi Bazargan was q u i c k t o demonstrate a d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o c o n t i n u e t h e revamping o f 177 f o r e i g n p o l i c y i n i t i a t e d by the ephemeral B a k h t i a r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . C e n t r a l t o t h i s change was an observance o f what F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Ebrahim Y a z d i once a l l u d e d t o as " p o s i t i v e n e u t r a l i t y . " 1 B a s i c a l l y , t h e aim u n d e r l y i n g the a d o p t i n g o f t h i s p r i n c i p l e , which was i n consonance w i t h the d e s i r e o f i m p r o v i n g r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e A r a b s t a t e s o f t h e G u l f and beyond , was t o s i g n a l t h a t t h e dependent r e l a t i o n s h i p between I r a n and the West , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , was no l o n g e r t e n a b l e . T h i s was e v i d e n c e d on 3 A p r i l 1980, when the Government announced t h a t I r a n would no l o n g e r s e r v e as "pol iceman o f t h e P e r s i a n G u l f on b e h a l f o f Western i n t e r e s t s . A f u r t h e r development i n l i n e w i t h t h i s o b j e c t i v e came i n August when Teheran announced i t s w i t h d r a w a l from the Group f o r R e g i o n a l C o o p e r a t i o n and Development, which a l s o i n c l u d e d Turkey and P a k i s t a n , b o t h o f which m a i n t a i n e d a s t r o n g m i l i t a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h Washington . O v e r a l l , B a z a r g a n ' s i n t e n t i o n was not t o c o m p l e t e l y i s o l a t e I r a n from the West b u t , r a t h e r , t o d i m i n i s h the power o f Washington and London t o shape t h e d i r e c t i o n o f I r a n ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y . S imply p u t , no l o n g e r would the West be a l l o w e d t o b e n e f i t from the excesses p e r m i t t e d d u r i n g the S h a h ' s t e n u r e . N o n e t h e l e s s , Bazargan was f i r s t and foremost a p r a g m a t i s t , and he was c o g n i z a n t t h a t s t a b l e r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d powers had t o be m a i n t a i n e d i f p l a n s f o r r e s t r u c t u r i n g and c o n t i n u i n g the development o f I r a n ' s 178 economy were t o be r e a l i z e d . A c c o r d i n g l y , any measures which p o r t e n d e d r e t a l i a t o r y responses by the West were v i g o r o u s l y opposed by the Government. However, as t h e s e c u l a r i s t s * l i m i t e d power over domes t i c m a t t e r s waned, t h e r e a l s o o c c u r r e d a d i m i n u t i o n o f t h e i r power t o d i r e c t f o r e i g n p o l i c y w h i c h , as the churchmen t i g h t e n e d t h e i r c o n t r o l o v e r the r e v o l u t i o n a r y p o l i t y , assumed an i n c r e a s i n g l y r a d i c a l l e a n i n g . The f o r e i g n p o l i c y ends p u r s u e d by t h e moderate s e c u l a r i s t s c o n t r a s t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y w i t h t h o s e championed by the c l e r i c a l e l i t e , which were p r e d i c a t e d upon an adherence t o S h i ' i t e mora l and e t h i c a l p r e c e p t s . 2 Of t h e s e , t h e f o s t e r i n g o f p a n - I s l a m i c u n i t y , w i t h the u l t i m a t e v i s i o n b e i n g the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a s i n g l e I s l a m i c s t a t e c o m p r i s i n g a l l M u s l i m s , from M a u r i t a n i a t o B r u n e i , was o f paramount i m p o r t a n c e . I n s p i r e d by t h i s l o f t y d e s i g n , t h e K h o m e i n i s t s b e l i e v e d t h a t i t was incumbent on I r a n t o s p r e a d the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n t o o t h e r Mus l im s t a t e s . I n d i c a t i v e o f t h i s s en t iment was a pronouncement put f o r t h by Khomeini i n A p r i l o f 1980: " I r a n i s the c o u n t r y o f God and our b r o t h e r s i n o t h e r l a n d s must come a l o n g w i t h u s . " 3 Through such an i d e a l s o c i e t y , t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e a s p i r e d t o s u p p l a n t e x p l o i t a t i o n and o p p r e s s i o n w i t h a t r a d i t i o n a l i s t I s l a m i c l i f e s t y l e throughout the Mus l im r e a l m . The f r e q u e n t a l l u s i o n t o Khomeini as the " l e a d e r o f the oppres sed o f the 179 w o r l d " 4 a p t l y r e f l e c t e d t h i s w i d e l y h e l d p o s i t i o n among s e n i o r churchmen. I n h e r e n t i n t h e Khomein i s t s" p a n - I s l a m i c o b j e c t i v e s was a b e l i e f t h a t p e r c e i v e d s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , and economic problems f a c e d by many Mus l im s t a t e s , such as s e x u a l l i c e n s e , d i c t a t o r i a l governance , as w e l l as u s u r y and p o v e r t y , c o u l d be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o i m p e r i a l i s t d o m i n a t i o n and the championing o f a l i e n , m a i n l y Wes tern , i d e a s by r u l i n g e l i t e s . I t was t h i s we ighty and h i g h l y d i s c e r n i b l e e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e t h a t the I s l a m i c i s t s sought t o e r a d i c a t e . In pursuance o f t h i s end, Qom used a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme t h a t d i v i d e d s t a t e s i n t o two c o n t r a r y c a t e g o r i e s : those t h a t r e p r e s e n t e d a "house o f I s lam" [dar a l - I s l a m ] and t h o s e s t a t e s t h a t t y p i f i e d a "house o f war" [dar a l - h a r b ] . 5 Based on t h i s r a t h e r dogmat ic scheme, the c l e r i c a l e l i t e sought t o s t r e n g t h e n r e l a t i o n s w i t h the few A r a b n a t i o n s deemed t o q u a l i f y as t h e f o r m e r , namely South Yemen, L i b y a , and S y r i a , w h i l e h a r s h l y denounc ing t h e m u l t i t u d e o f s t a t e s t h a t f e l l i n t o the l a t t e r c a t e g o r y . F o l l o w i n g a p e r i o d o f h e i g h t e n e d d i p l o m a t i c c o n t a c t , i t was announced on 23 A p r i l 1980 t h a t f o r m a l r e l a t i o n s were b e i n g e s t a b l i s h e d between the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c and the P e o p l e ' s Democrat i c R e p u b l i c o f Yemen. And on 25 May, Radio Teheran announced t h a t the R e v o l u t i o n a r y C o u n c i l had d e c i d e d t o send an ambassador t o T r i p o l i . However, the c l e r i c s ' p r i n c i p a l i n t e r e s t was i n e s t a b l i s h i n g a s t r o n g a l l i a n c e 180 w i t h S y r i a , which was p a r t l y based on i t s g e o g r a p h i c a l p r o x i m i t y t o I r a q and a c o g n i z a n c e o f the h e a t e d r i v a l r y between the Baath regime headed by Hafez a l - A s a d and i t s i d e o l o g i c a l r i v a l i n Baghdad. On 22 A p r i l 1980, F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Qotzbadeh c o n c l u d e d a s t a t e v i s i t t o Damascus w i t h t h e endorsement o f a j o i n t I r a n i a n - S y r i a n communique s t a t i n g t h a t the warming o f r e l a t i o n s between Teheran and Damascus was based on a "common b e l i e f i n the p r i n c i p l e s o f I s l a m . " 6 R e g a r d l e s s o f such r h e t o r i c a l a s s e r t i o n s , t h e I r a n i a n - S y r i a n rapprochement was based l e s s on i d e o l o g i c a l common ground t h a n on mutual p e r c e p t i o n s o f u t i l i t y ; b o t h regimes c o u l d c o o p e r a t e i n c h a l l e n g i n g a s h a r e d nemesis : Saddam H u s s e i n . T h i s was made apparent by Prime M i n i s t e r R o j a i who, on 11 September, a s s e r t e d t h a t s t r o n g I r a n i a n - S y r i a n r e l a t i o n s c o n s t i t u t e d an o b s t a c l e t o the " b l o o d - t h i r s t y I r a q i B a a t h i s t r e g i m e . 1 , 7 W h i l e e n d e a v o r i n g t o s t r e n g t h e n t i e s w i t h Aden, T r i p o l i , and Damascus, the o n l y A r a b c a p i t a l s t o o p e n l y p r o f f e r s u p p o r t t o the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c , t h e K h o m e i n i s t s engaged i n a campaign o f d e n u n c i a t i o n aimed a t v a r i o u s M u s l i m s t a t e s judged t o be d i s r e s p e c t f u l o f the " s p i r i t o f A l l a h . " The r o y a l i s t n a t i o n s o f the G u l f were v iewed as c u l p a b l e o f t h i s t r a n s g r e s s i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e c l e r i c a l r e g i m e ' s o r i e n t a t i o n toward the g o v e r n i n g e l i t e s o f the l i t t o r a l s t a t e s was s t r o n g l y tempered by a deep a v e r s i o n 181 t o ward t h e t r a p p i n g s o f i m p e r i a l i s m p r e v a l e n t i n t h e s e s t a t e s . More p r e c i s e l y , a t t h e h e a r t o f t h e o p p o s i t i o n t o ward t h e s e r egimes was t h e c o n c e p t o f a b s o l u t i s t monarchy, w h i c h t h e churchmen h e l d as i n i m i c a l t o t r a d i t i o n a l i s t I s l a m . The r e j e c t i o n o f s e c u l a r monarchy stemmed from t h e c o n v i c t i o n t h a t u l t i m a t e s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r man was t h e e x c l u s i v e p r o v i n c e o f A l l a h . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e mona r c h i e s o f Ku w a i t , S a u d i A r a b i a , Q a t a r , B a h r a i n , t h e U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s , and Oman, as w e l l as t h o s e f u r t h e r a f i e l d from t h e G u l f , such as J o r d a n and Morocco, were denounced as i l l e g i t i m a t e bands o f " K a f i r s " [ i n f i d e l s ] . 8 And, i n k e e p i n g w i t h t h e S h i ' i t e c o n c e p t o f " t a k f i r , " 9 w h i c h l e g i t i m i z e s t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f " h o l y war" [ j i h a d ] a g a i n s t s t a t e s t h a t a r e n o t governed i n ac c o r d a n c e w i t h I s l a m i c d o c t r i n e , Qom s e i z e d upon t h e a l l e g e d l a c k o f l e g i t i m a c y w i e l d e d by t h e r o y a l i s t r egimes as a j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r a d v o c a t i n g t h e i r f o r c e d d e p o s a l s . I n s h o r t , w i t h r e g a r d t o e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e r o o t cause o f t h e a v e r s i o n toward I r a n among a m a j o r i t y o f t h e r u l i n g e l i t e s o f Near E a s t e r n s t a t e s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o no t e t h a t many r a n k i n g I r a n i a n churchmen, t h r o u g h an emphatic v o i c i n g o f t h e i r b e l i e f s on t h e n e c e s s i t y o f m o d i f y i n g t h e r e g i o n ' s s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , and economic s t r u c t u r e s , s e r v e d t o f o s t e r a l a r m i n t h e G u l f and beyond. F o r example, on 27 May 1980, A y a t o l l a h Sadegh K h a l k h a l i r e f e r r e d t o t h e P e r s i a n G u l f as t h e " I s l a m i c G u l f . " 1 0 182 Beyond r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e G u l f n a t i o n s , t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e a l s o made a d r a m a t i c b r e a k w i t h t h e p o l i c y f o l l o w e d by t h e m o n a r c h i a l regime r e g a r d i n g t h e A r a b - I s r a e l i d i s p u t e , one o f t h e c e n t r a l s t r a t e g i c i s s u e s i n t h e Near E a s t . D u r i n g t h e Shah's t e n u r e , c l o s e r e l a t i o n s were m a i n t a i n e d between Teheran and T e l A v i v . However, Khomei n i and h i s c o l l e a g u e s , who l o o k e d upon I s r a e l as a p a r i a h n a t i o n , had l o n g h a r b o r e d a b i t t e r l o a t h i n g o f t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p and were b e n t on b r i n g i n g i t t o a complete t e r m i n a t i o n . The K h o m e i n i s t s 1 animus toward t h e I s r a e l i s l a r g e l y stemmed from t h e l a t t e r ' s v i g o r o u s , and f r e q u e n t l y v i o l e n t , c h a m p i o n i n g o f Z i o n i s m , t h e main i d e o l o g i c a l d r i v i n g f o r c e b e h i n d t h e s t a t e o f I s r a e l , t h e key d e s i g n o f w h i c h i s t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f a " g r e a t e r I s r a e l , " o r more p r e c i s e l y , a haven f o r Jews encompassing t e r r i t o r y now under t h e c o n t r o l o f Lebanon, S y r i a , and J o r d a n . The I s r a e l i s ' c h a u v i n i s t i c "dream" i s c l e a r l y a n t i t h e t i c a l t o t h e I r a n i a n churchmen's pan- I s l a m i c o b j e c t i v e s . T h i s s e n t i m e n t , w h i c h a p p r o x i m a t e s a n t i - S e m i t i s m , was made p l a i n by Khomeini i n a s e c t i o n o f h i s " I s l a m i c Government": From t h e v e r y b e g i n n i n g , t h e h i s t o r i c a l movement o f I s l a m has had t o contend w i t h t h e Jews, f o r i t was t h e y who f i r s t e s t a b l i s h e d a n t i - I s l a m i c propaganda and engaged i n v a r i o u s s t r a t a g e m s t h i s a c t i v i t y c o n t i n u e s down t o t h e p r e s e n t . 1 1 I n consonance w i t h t h e a n t i - Z i o n i s t b e n t , Qom began t o c a l l upon T e l A v i v t o r e l i n q u i s h a l l Arab t e r r i t o r y s e i z e d s i n c e t h e 1967 w a r . 1 2 183 A n a t u r a l c o n c o m i t a n t o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s a n t i - I s r a e l i o r i e n t a t i o n was t h e p r o f f e r i n g o f s u p p o r t t o t h e P a l e s t i n i a n s , t h e Arab p e o p l e who, u n e q u i v o c a l l y , have borne t h e b r u n t o f t h e s u f f e r i n g engendered by A m e r i c a n - f i n a n c e d Z i o n i s t e x p a n s i o n i s m i n t h e L e v a n t . A c o n c e r n f o r t h e p l i g h t o f t h e P a l e s t i n i a n s among t h e K h o m e i n i s t s d a t e s back t o w e l l b e f o r e t h e o v e r t h r o w i n g o f t h e Shah; by t h e e a r l y 1970s, t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y movement had e s t a b l i s h e d a nexus w i t h v a r i o u s h a r d - l i n e P a l e s t i n i a n g r o u p s , p r i n c i p a l l y t h e P o p u l a r F r o n t f o r t h e L i b e r a t i o n o f P a l e s t i n e ( P F L P ) , l e d by Dr. George H a b a s h . 1 3 F u r t h e r d e m o n s t r a t i v e o f t h e churchmen's s t r o n g p r o - P a l e s t i n i a n l e a n i n g was t h e f a c t t h a t Y a s i r A r a f a t , t h e ch a i r m a n o f t h e mainstream A l - F a t a h g r o u p i n g o f t h e P a l e s t i n i a n L i b e r a t i o n O r g a n i z a t i o n (PLO), was t h e f i r s t r a n k i n g f o r e i g n d i g n i t a r y t o c o n d u c t an o f f i c i a l s t a t e v i s i t t o t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e PLO was a c c o r d e d t h e p r i v i l e g e o f o p e n i n g a d i p l o m a t i c m i s s i o n i n t h e former I s r a e l i Embassy i n T e h e r a n . 1 4 I n l i n e w i t h Qom's a n t i - Z i o n i s t and p r o - P a l e s t i n i a n p o s t u r e , e f f o r t s were u n d e r t a k e n t o o s t r a c i z e E g y p t , l o n g r e g a r d e d as t h e l e a d i n g Arab power, f o r i t s c o n c l u s i o n o f t h e b i l a t e r a l Camp D a v i d peace agreement w i t h I s r a e l . To t h e K h o m e i n i s t s , C a i r o ' s n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h T e l A v i v c o n s t i t u t e d a wanton d i s r e g a r d f o r M u s l i m u n i t y , as w e l l as a f a w n i n g g e s t u r e aimed a t c u r r y i n g f a v o r w i t h t h e U n i t e d 184 S t a t e s , t h e s p o n s o r o f t h e E g y p t i a n - I s r a e l i p a r l e y t h a t p r o d u c e d t h e a c c o r d . On 30 A p r i l 1979, r e l a t i o n s between Teheran and C a i r o were f o r m a l l y b r o k e n and t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e i m p l o r e d a l l o t h e r M u s l i m n a t i o n s t o do l i k e w i s e . To add i n s u l t t o i n j u r y , on 1 O c t o b e r , Deputy Prime M i n i s t e r Sadegh T a b a t a b a i denounced P r e s i d e n t Anwar Sadat as an "agent o f w o r l d i m p e r i a l i s m . " 1 5 By and l a r g e , t h e c l e r i c s ' a n t i - E g y p t i a n campaign a f f o r d e d no r e a l advantage t o r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , b u t m e r e l y s e r v e d t o add a n o t h e r regime t o t h e g r o w i n g l i s t o f Teheran's Arab a d v e r s a r i e s . H a v i n g d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e f o r e i g n p o l i c y p r i o r i t i e s adopted by t h e z e a l o u s churchmen b r o u g h t about t h e i s o l a t i o n o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c i n t h e G u l f , and i n t h e Near E a s t i n g e n e r a l , a development t h a t c o n t r a s t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h t h e p o s i t i o n o f I r a n d u r i n g t h e Shah's t e n u r e when Teheran e x e r t e d c o n s i d e r a b l e i n f l u e n c e o v e r r e g i o n a l a f f a i r s , t h e a n a l y s i s w i l l now s h i f t t o t h e f l u c t u a t i o n i n t h e r e l a t i o n s between I r a n and t h e superpowers and t h e i r a l l i e s , and how t h i s development d e p r i v e d Teheran o f v a l u a b l e s o u r c e s o f e x t e r n a l s u p p o r t t h a t c o u l d be u t i l i z e d t o d e t e r a g g r e s s i o n by i t s a d v e r s a r i e s . As a l r e a d y mentioned i n t h i s volume, an a t t e n d a n t a s p e c t o f t h e K h o m e i n i s t s ' p a n - I s l a m i c c r u s a d e was an i n t e n s e l o a t h i n g o f i m p e r i a l powers, e s p e c i a l l y t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e Communist 185 and C a p i t a l i s t i d e o l o g i e s w h i c h , i t was h e l d i n Qom, r e p r e s e n t e d a b a r r i e r t o t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f a new o r d e r w i t h i n t h e M u s l i m w o r l d i n tune w i t h f u n d a m e n t a l i s t I s l a m . 1 6 Khomeini's d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between I r a n and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , as a n a l o g o u s t o t h a t between a "lamb and a w o l f , " 1 7 u n d e r s c o r e d t h e c l e r i c ' s e n m i t y t o w a r d Moscow and Washington, and gave r i s e t o t h e p o p u l a r s l o g a n "na s h a r q na gharb" [ n e i t h e r E a s t n o r West ] . T h i s a n t i - E a s t e r n and a n t i - W e s t e r n e motion, w h i c h r a p i d l y emerged as a c o r n e r s t o n e o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y , was c l e a r l y a r t i c u l a t e d by Khomeini on 28 May 1980, when, d u r i n g an a d d r e s s t o t h e i n a u g u r a l s e s s i o n o f t h e new P a r l i a m e n t , he a s s e r t e d t h a t t h e c o n d u c t i n g o f I r a n ' s e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s would t a k e no c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e g l o b a l p o l i t i c a l d i v i s i o n between E a s t and West. Of t h e two superpowers, t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e l o o k e d upon t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s as t h e a r c h nemesis o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . On one o c c a s i o n , Khomeini c h a r g e d t h a t f o r decades Washington had, i n v i o l a t i o n o f n a t i o n a l s o v e r e i g n t y , e x e r c i s e d an o v e r r i d i n g m a s t e r y o v e r a l l f a c e t s o f I r a n i a n s ' e x i s t e n c e : s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l , economic, p o l i t i c a l , and m i l i t a r y . The c a s t i n g - o f f o f t h i s l o n g - b r o o k e d , onerous i n t r u s i o n i n t o I r a n i a n a f f a i r s was a c c o r d e d paramount p r i o r i t y by Qom. A number o f i m p o l i t i c m a c h i n a t i o n s on t h e p a r t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , on t h e eve o f t h e o u t b r e a k o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n , p r o v i d e d f u r t h e r grounds f o r 186 t h e churchmen t o a s s a i l Washington. N o t a b l e among t h e s e v a r i o u s i n c i d e n t s was t h e appointment i n A p r i l o f 1978, o f W a l t e r L. C u t l e r as t h e new head o f t h e A m e r i c a n d i p l o m a t i c m i s s i o n i n Teheran. The s e l e c t i o n o f C u t l e r , a c a r e e r f o r e i g n s e r v i c e o f f i c e r who had p r e v i o u s l y s e r v e d as ambassador t o Z a i r e , a n a t i o n w i t h a d e p l o r a b l e human r i g h t s r e c o r d and, under t h e a e g i s o f t h e n o t o r i o u s P r e s i d e n t Mobutu Sese Seko, a l o n g h i s t o r y o f c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h A m e r i c a n and South A f r i c a n i n t e l l i g e n c e f o r c e s i n a t t e m p t i n g t o r o l l back r e v o l u t i o n a r y movements i n s o u t h e r n A f r i c a , was c i t e d by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s as a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e o p p r e s s i v e and v i o l e n t n a t u r e o f American i m p e r i a l i s m and, a c c o r d i n g l y , was v i g o r o u s l y denounced. F o l l o w i n g t h e Shah's d e p a r t u r e , t h e c l e r i c a l regime made wide c a p i t a l o f p a s t American t r a n s g r e s s i o n s as a means o f a d d i n g c r e d i b i l i t y t o t h e charge t h a t Washington c o n s t i t u t e d t h e most s e r i o u s , d i r e c t t h r e a t t o t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n . Moreover, t h e K h o m e i n i s t s sought t o ward o f f any f u r t h e r m e d d l i n g i n I r a n i a n a f f a i r s by t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s by p u t t i n g f o r t h f r e q u e n t a d m o n i t i o n s ; f o r i n s t a n c e , a p a r t i c u l a r l y b e l l i c o s e w a r n i n g came on 28 A p r i l 1980 when F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Qotzbadeh h e l d t h a t I r a n i a n f o r c e s would "blow up t h e s t r a i t o f Hormuz and b u r n t h e e n t i r e G u l f " i n r e t a l i a t i o n f o r any c o u n t e r r e v o l u t i o n a r y a c t i o n s mounted by Washington. The l e v e l o f American s c o r n t o w a r d I r a n , a l r e a d y a t a h i g h p i t c h due t o t h e embassy s t o r m i n g , was 187 h e i g h t e n e d even f u r t h e r by t h e s e o v e r t t h r e a t s o f v i o l e n c e , w h i c h a l s o s e r v e d t o r e n d e r Washington's e f f o r t s t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y i s o l a t e t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c l e s s arduous. As w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Qom was e q u a l l y d e t e r m i n e d t o m a i n t a i n e q u i d i s t a n c e from t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . The impetus b e h i n d t h i s i n t e n t i o n , a p a r t from t h e a v e r s i o n o f i m p e r i a l c h a u v i n i s m , was a l s o tempered by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s ' c o g n i z a n c e o f Moscow's r e l i g i o u s r e p r e s s i o n o f M u s l i m s w i t h i n t h e i r c e n t r a l A s i a n r e p u b l i c s . More p r e c i s e l y , t o t h e c l e r i c s , t h e e f f o r t s o f t h e s t a t e t o d i s c o u r a g e open m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f r e v e r e n c e f o r I s l a m i n t h a t r e g i o n o f t h e S o v i e t Union c o n s t i t u t e d c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e o f t h e g r o s s i n c o m p a t i b i l i t y between Communism, w i t h i t s c a r d i n a l emphasis upon s e c u l a r i s m and t h e r e l e g a t i n g o f r e l i g i o n t o a s t r i c t l y p r i v a t e , i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l s o c i e t a l r o l e , and a t r a d i t i o n a l i s t I s l a m i c l i f e s t y l e . Such r e a s o n i n g was i n h e r e n t i n t h e f o l l o w i n g d i c t u m p u t f o r t h by Khomeini on 21 March 1980: "we a r e f i g h t i n g a g a i n s t i n t e r n a t i o n a l communism j u s t as we a r e f i g h t i n g t h e Western w o r l d . " 1 8 O b s e r v a t i o n s o f t h i s n a t u r e f i g u r e d h e a v i l y i n t h e c l e r i c ' s d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o check Moscow's i n f l u e n c e among Muslim s t a t e s . The S o v i e t i n c u r s i o n i n t o A f g h a n i s t a n p r o v i d e d t h e K h o m e i n i i t e regime w i t h a f u r t h e r o c c a s i o n t o condemn Moscow. On 29 December 1979, F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Qotzbadeh conveyed an o f f i c i a l p r o t e s t t o Moscow i n w h i c h he h e l d t h a t 188 I r a n ' s I s l a m i c a u t h o r i t i e s r e g a r d e d t h e S o v i e t i n t r u s i o n i n t o A f g h a n i a f f a i r s as a s e r i o u s a f f r o n t t o t h e i n t e r e s t s o f a l l M u s l i m s . A worsen ing o f the a c r i m o n i o u s r e l a t i o n s between Teheran and Moscow came i n e a r l y 1980 when t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e began t o i n t i m a t e t h a t t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c might r e s o r t t o the use o f f o r c e as a means o f e l i m i n a t i n g the S o v i e t p r e s e n c e i n A f g h a n i s t a n , as w e l l as t o hamper Moscow's e f f o r t s t o g a i n i n f l u e n c e among t h e G u l f A r a b s t a t e s . F o r example, on 21 J a n u a r y , Qotzbadeh a s s e r t e d t h a t I r a n i a n a s s i s t a n c e t o the Afghan r e s i s t a n c e would be f o r t h c o m i n g u n l e s s Moscow c a r r i e d out a prompt w i t h d r a w a l o f i t s o c c u p a t i o n f o r c e s . And , on the f o l l o w i n g d a y , R a d i o I r a n announced t h a t c l e r i c a l o f f i c i a l s i n Qom were h o l d i n g d i s c u s s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the p o s s i b l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a r e g i o n a l de fense reg ime , the p r i n c i p a l d e s i g n o f which would be t o f o r e s t a l l S o v i e t p e n e t r a t i o n i n t o t h e G u l f . These developments were q u i t e d i s e n c h a n t i n g t o t h e R u s s i a n s . O v e r a l l , w i t h the advent o f the S o v i e t a d v e n t u r e i n A f g h a n i s t a n , t h e p r o s p e c t o f the r e a l i z a t i o n o f mutua l c o o p e r a t i o n between Moscow and T e h e r a n , l a r g e l y because o f the K h o m e i n i i t e r e g i m e ' s i d e o l o g i c a l i m p e r a t i v e s , was made even more remote . In s h o r t , based on the above d i s c u s s i o n , i t can be a c c u r a t e l y a s s e r t e d t h a t the a g g r e s s i v e f o r e i g n p o l i c y m a c h i n a t i o n s o f the c l e r i c s s e r v e d t o a l i e n a t e a number o f governments , i n c l u d i n g the G u l f m o n a r c h i e s , c o n s e r v a t i v e 189 reg imes i n the A r a b r e a l m a t l a r g e , as w e l l as b o t h superpowers and t h e i r v a r i o u s a l l i e s . The end r e s u l t o f t h i s development was t h e i s o l a t i o n o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . By and l a r g e , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f c o r d i a l t i e s w i t h S y r i a , L i b y a , and South Yemen, i n l a t e 1980, T e h e r a n was b e r e f t o f s t r o n g a l l i e s which c o u l d be c a l l e d upon t o r e n d e r a s s i s t a n c e t o s a f e g u a r d n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y from e x t e r n a l t h r e a t s . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n w i l l a d d r e s s I r a q ' s e f f o r t s t o e x p l o i t I r a n ' s growing i s o l a t i o n as a means o f augmenting f o r e i g n s u p p o r t f o r the p lanned b i d t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y s t a t e . Change i n I r a q i F o r e i g n P o l i c y : From R a d i c a l i s m t o M o d e r a t i o n The I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n a c t e d as a c a t a l y s t t o t h e s l o w l y e v o l v i n g d i r e c t i o n o f Baghdad's e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s d e s i g n s . From the mid-1970s , the Baath e l i t e had been g r a d u a l l y s h i f t i n g the o r i e n t a t i o n o f I r a q i f o r e i g n p o l i c y from a r a d i c a l l e a n i n g p r e d i c a t e d upon adherence t o d o c t r i n a i r e A r a b n a t i o n a l i s m and s o c i a l i s m , a n t i - Z i o n i s m , and a d e f e n d i n g o f the P a l e s t i n i a n cause , as w e l l as o p p o s i t i o n t o A r a b s t a t e s w i t h s t r o n g l i n k s t o t h e West , toward a more moderate , p r a g m a t i c p o l i c y c o n d u c i v e t o t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f r e g i o n a l a m b i t i o n s . The m o d e r a t i o n o f I r a q i f o r e i g n p o l i c y became i n c r e a s i n g l y d i s c e r n i b l e f o l l o w i n g the 1978 summit o f A r a b heads -o f -government i n B a g h d a d . 1 9 From 190 t h i s p o i n t onward, t i e s between I r a q and c o n s e r v a t i v e A r a b regimes improved s t e a d i l y . F o l l o w i n g the Shah' s d o w n f a l l , Baghdad's movement toward t h e c o n s e r v a t i v e Arab f o l d was f u r t h e r h a s t e n e d . The i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f t h i s t r e n d can be a t t r i b u t e d t o p e r c e p t i o n s o f i n c r e a s e d o p p o r t u n i t y : i n F e b r u a r y o f 1979, a s e c r e t , somewhat c r y p t i c memo was d i s t r i b u t e d among r a n k i n g B a a t h i s t s which s t a t e d , i n p a r t , t h a t "the l a k e o f o i l seems t o be on the b r i n k o f a v o l c a n o . " 2 0 More c l e a r l y , t o the I r a q i e l i t e , the c o n s i d e r a b l e a p p r e h e n s i o n among the r o y a l i s t G u l f s t a t e s r e g a r d i n g the s p e c t e r o f a s p i l l i n g - over o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y , f u n d a m e n t a l i s t S h i ' i s m c o u l d be e x p l o i t e d t o f o r g e a new r e g i o n a l power r e l a t i o n s h i p , w i t h I r a q a t t h e he lm. In consonance w i t h t h i s d e s i g n , Baath o f f i c i a l s , b e g i n n i n g i n e a r l y 1979, embarked on a campaign t o h e i g h t e n p e r c e p t i o n s i n the v a r i o u s G u l f c a p i t a l s o f the K h o m e i n i i t e regime as a menace t o r e g i o n a l s t a b i l i t y . A l s o , by v i l i f y i n g the c l e r i c a l reg ime , the B a a t h i s t s were h o p e f u l o f a v o i d i n g the s t igma t h a t c o u l d stem from a p p e a r i n g as t h e p r i n c i p a l i n s t i g a t o r o f t h e r i s i n g t e n s i o n between Baghdad and T e h e r a n . A n d , i n t h i s way, an optimum l e v e l o f s u p p o r t among the Arab monarchies would o b t a i n . A s a l i e n t f e a t u r e o f the B a a t h i s t s ' campaign t o sow d i s t r u s t and f e a r o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n was t h e charge t h a t , i n terms o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y , the c l e r i c a l reg ime was bent on p u r s u i n g r e g i o n a l ends , a l b e i t i n a more a g g r e s s i v e manner, 191 s i m i l a r t o t h o s e adhered t o by t h e d o m i n e e r i n g P a h l a v i regime. More p r e c i s e l y , toward t h e g o a l o f f o s t e r i n g s u p p o r t f o r t h e p l a n n e d a t t a c k a g a i n s t I r a n , Baghdad engaged i n an e f f o r t t o c o n v i n c e t h e G u l f s t a t e s t h a t t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c d i f f e r e d l i t t l e from m o n a r c h i a l I r a n i n terms o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s : t e r r i t o r i a l a g g r a n d i z e m e n t and r e g i o n a l hegemony, based on a s t r o n g u n d e r c u r r e n t o f a n t i - A rab s e n t i m e n t , c o n t i n u e d t o c o n s t i t u t e t h e f o u n d a t i o n o f Teheran's e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s agenda. I n l i n e w i t h t h e above d e s i g n , t h e B a a t h e l i t e m a i n t a i n e d t h a t , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y r h e t o r i c r e g a r d i n g t h e n e c e s s i t y o f e s t a b l i s h i n g g r e a t e r s o l i d a r i t y among Mus l i m s as a means o f c o u n t e r i n g Western i n f l u e n c e , t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c remained t h e w o r l d ' s f o r e m o s t e x p o r t e r o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and, t h a t i n c o n t i n u i n g t o s u p p o r t i m p e r i a l i n t e r e s t s , r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n c o n s t i t u t e d t h e c h i e f o b s t a c l e t o t h e a t t a i n m e n t o f a s i n g l e pan-Arab s t a t e . 2 1 Open condemnations o f t h e c l e r i c a l regime on t h i s s c o r e were p u t f o r t h by I r a q i o f f i c i a l s w i t h i n c r e a s i n g f r e q u e n c y ; f o r example, i n l a t e June o f 1979, T a h i r T a w f i q , a s e n i o r member o f t h e B a a t h P a r t y R e g i o n a l Command, denounced t h e f o r e i g n p o l i c y ends a d v o c a t e d by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s as " a g g r e s s i v e " and " r a c i s t " and m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e y were a n t i t h e t i c a l t o t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e "Arab n a t i o n . " 2 2 And, on one o c c a s i o n , Saddam H u s s e i n o p e n l y a t t a c k e d Khomeini by r e f e r r i n g t o him as a " t u r b a n e d Shah" 192 who, l i k e Muhammad Reza P a h l a v i , was b e n t on f u r t h e r i n g I r a n i a n i n f l u e n c e i n t h e G u l f . The B a a t h i s t s s e i z e d upon t h e v i o l e n t u n r e s t i n Kh u z e s t a n i n o r d e r t o l e n d s u b s t a n c e t o t h e ch a r g e t h a t t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y regime espoused a s t r o n g r a c i s t l e a n i n g . V i s - a - v i s t h i s s u b t e r f u g e , Baghdad was a b l e t o couch i t s e n t e r p r i s i n g t e r r i t o r i a l a m b i t i o n s i n d e f e n s i v e t e r m s : t h e p r o t e c t i o n o f Arab t e r r i t o r y from P e r s i a n encroachment. I n d i c a t i v e o f t h e Baath e l i t e ' s e f f o r t t o f o s t e r an image o f I r a q as a champion o f Arab i n t e r e s t s was t h e a s s e r t i o n , w h i c h i m p l i c i t l y a l l u d e d t o I r a n , made by T a r i q A z i z i n December o f 1979: P a l e s t i n e i s n o t t h e o n l y o c c u p i e d Arab l a n d , and no o c c u p i e r o f Arab l a n d can be a f r i e n d o f t h e A r a b s . 2 3 Beyond d r a w i n g a t t e n t i o n t o t h e K h u z e s t a n i m b r o g l i o , as a f u r t h e r means o f b o l s t e r i n g I r a q ' s image as b e n e f a c t o r t o t h e G u l f A r a b s t a t e s , Baghdad a l s o made wide c a p i t a l o u t o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s d e c i s i o n a g a i n s t c e d i n g c o n t r o l o v e r Abu Musa and t h e G r e a t e r and L e s s e r Tunbs t o t h e U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s , an e f f o r t which e l i c i t e d an e x t e n s i o n o f open s u p p o r t from S h e i k Saqr b i n Muhammad a l - Q a s s a m i , t h e e m i r o f Ras a l - K h a i m a h . 2 4 By and l a r g e , I r a n ' s uncompromising p o s i t i o n t o w a r d t h e a s p i r a t i o n s o f t h e K h u z e s t a n i a c t i v i s t s , w h i c h engendered a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f v i o l e n c e , as w e l l as i t s i n t r a n s i g e n c e toward r e l i n q u i s h i n g c o n t r o l o v e r what was w i d e l y p e r c e i v e d i n G u l f c a p i t a l s as Arab t e r r i t o r y , a l l o w e d Baghdad t h e l u x u r y o f b r a n d i n g Teheran as an 193 a g g r e s s o r w h i l e s u b s e q u e n t l y b u i l d i n g a base o f s u p p o r t f o r a d v a n c i n g I r a q ' s own h e g e m o n i s t i c p l a n s . I r a q c a r r i e d out i t s new, s e l f - a p p o i n t e d r o l e as d e f e n d e r o f t h e G u l f A r a b rea lm w i t h i n c r e a s i n g z e a l and d e t e r m i n a t i o n . S h o r t l y a f t e r the Shah was o v e r t h r o w n , the Baath regime s en t i t s m i n i s t e r o f de fense t o t h e v a r i o u s c a p i t a l s o f t h e l i t t o r a l s t a t e s w i t h a s s u r a n c e s t h a t Baghdad would p r o v i d e a s s i s t a n c e t o c o u n t e r any t h r e a t posed by r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n . 2 5 Moreover , b e g i n n i n g i n September o f 1979, t h e B a a t h i s t s began t o warn t h a t I r a q would not brook any m a c h i n a t i o n s o f t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c t h a t were d e s i g n e d t o i n c i t e d i s s i d e n c e w i t h i n the c o n s e r v a t i v e A r a b s t a t e s o f the G u l f r e g i o n . 2 6 The B a a t h i s t s * e f f o r t s t o c u r r y f a v o r w i t h i n t h e A r a b r e a l m were made e a s i e r by the f a c t t h a t , s i m i l a r t o I r a q , v a r i o u s c o n s e r v a t i v e Arab regimes d i d have a b a s i s f o r c o n c e r n r e g a r d i n g the I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y the m o n a r c h i a l e l i t e s g o v e r n i n g the l i t t o r a l s t a t e s w h i c h , beyond g e o g r a p h i c a l p r o x i m i t y t o I r a n , were r e n d e r e d v u l n e r a b l e t o a d e s t a b i l i z i n g ou tbreak o f t r a d i t i o n a l i s t S h i 1 i s m by t h e i r e t h n i c and r e l i g i o u s f a b r i c s . F o r example, t h e K u w a i t i p o p u l a c e , which was governed by a r o y a l i s t regime under t h e e x c l u s i v e sway o f S u n n i M u s l i m s , c o m p r i s e d a s i g n i f i c a n t number o f S h i a s , a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f whom were e t h n i c P e r s i a n s . 2 7 T h i s v u l n e r a b i l i t y was m a n i f e s t e d by t h e K u w a i t i monarchy's s e n s i t i v i t y toward t h e c l e r i c a l 194 regime's d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o f o s t e r s i m i l a r r e v o l u t i o n a r y u p h e a v a l s t h r o u g h o u t t h e r e g i o n . To t h e d e l i g h t o f Baghdad, t h e K u w a i t i regime became i n c r e a s i n g l y open i n d e n o u n c i n g t h e a g g r e s s i v e pronouncements p u t f o r t h by v a r i o u s I r a n i a n c l e r i c s , on one o c c a s i o n admonishing t h a t i f t h e K h o m e i n i s t s ' " i m p e r i a l m e n t a l i t y " d i d n o t soon a b a t e , K u w ait would j o i n w i t h o t h e r G u l f n a t i o n s i n d i r e c t l y c h a l l e n g i n g I r a n ' s t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i m t o K h u z e s t a n . 2 8 The B a a t h i s t s t o o k s p e c i a l p a i n s t o n o r m a l i z e t i e s w i t h S a u d i A r a b i a , one o f t h e more p o w e r f u l Arab s t a t e s . I n F e b r u a r y o f 1979, I z z a t I b r a h i m a l - D o u r i , t h e I r a q i i n t e r i o r m i n i s t e r , l e d a d e l e g a t i o n t o R i y a d h , w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f an I r a q i - S a u d i f r o n t i e r s e c u r i t y agreement. The S a u d i e l i t e ' s impetus f o r c o n c l u d i n g a j o i n t d e f e n s e p a c t w i t h I r a q l a r g e l y emanated from i n c r e a s i n g l y d i s c e r n i b l e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f u n r e s t among t h e n a t i o n ' s S h i a s . By O c t o b e r o f 1979, t r o o p s had been p o s i t i o n e d i n v a r i o u s S a u d i h o l y c e n t e r s t o d e t e r t h e o u t b r e a k o f d i s t u r b a n c e s . However, i n November, I s l a m i c m i l i t a n t s f o r c i b l y o c c u p i e d t h e Grand Mosque o f Mecca f o r a two-week p e r i o d , w h i c h ended w i t h a b l o o d y s t o r m i n g . T h i s v i o l e n t e p i s o d e s e r v e d t o i n c r e a s e R i y a d h ' s a v e r s i o n t o w a r d t h e I r a n i a n c l e r i c a l e l i t e , which was b e l i e v e d t o have encouraged t h e o c c u p a t i o n o f t h e mosque. Baghdad's e f f o r t s t o b u i l d a base o f s u p p o r t among c o n s e r v a t i v e Arab regimes was not l i m i t e d t o t h e G u l f 195 m o n a r c h i e s . I r a q i d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h J o r d a n , Morocco, and T u n i s i a warmed c o n s i d e r a b l y i n t h e p e r i o d between t h e o n s e t o f t h e r e v o l u t i o n and t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f t h e i n v a s i o n . By mid-1979, t h e Baath regime was l a v i s h i n g p r a i s e on K i n g H u s s e i n , and t h i s c o n s t i t u t e d a s t a r k c o n t r a s t from t h e y e a r b e f o r e when Baghdad r o u t i n e l y denounced t h e J o r d a n i a n monarch as an " i m p e r i a l i s t t o o l . " 2 9 The rapprochement between I r a q and Morocco was h a s t e n e d by Baghdad's d e c i s i o n t o s u p p o r t Rabat's c o n t r o l o v e r t h e Western Sahara and i t s e f f o r t s t o q u e l l t h e i n s u r g e n c y b e i n g c o n d u c t e d by t h e Sahrawi P e o p l e ' s L i b e r a t i o n Army (SPLA), t h e armed wing o f t h e P o l i s a r i o [ P o p u l a r F r o n t f o r t h e L i b e r a t i o n o f S a q u i a al-Hamra and R i o de O r o ] . And, w i t h r e g a r d t o T u n i s i a , t h e B a a t h i s t s sought t o p l a c a t e P r e s i d e n t Habib B o u r q u i b a by o p e n l y denouncing t h e d e c i s i o n o f C o l o n e l Muammar Q a d d a f i t o r e i n f o r c e t r o o p l e v e l s a l o n g t h e L i b y a n - T u n i s i a n f r o n t i e r . O v e r a l l , beyond t h e above-mentioned c o n c i l i a t o r y g e s t u r e s , t h e p r i n c i p a l c a u s a l f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g t h e w i l l i n g n e s s o f J o r d a n , Morocco, and T u n i s i a t o seek s t r o n g e r t i e s w i t h I r a q was t h e common a f f i n i t y f o r s e c u l a r governance and an a t t e n d a n t a v e r s i o n t o w a r d I s l a m i c f a n a t i c i s m . I t was c o g n i z a n c e o f t h i s a c t u a l i t y t h a t a nimated t h e s h i f t i n I r a q i p o l i c y t oward t h e s e s t a t e s . Beyond e s t a b l i s h i n g a br o a d base o f s u p p o r t f o r t h e pe n d i n g c l a s h w i t h t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c w i t h i n t h e Arab r e a l m , t h e B a a t h i s t s d e v e l o p e d s o u r c e s o f s u p p o r t f u r t h e r 196 a f i e l d from t h e Near E a s t by m o d i f y i n g I r a q i f o r e i g n p o l i c y w i t h r e g a r d t o superpower i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . F o l l o w i n g t h e o n s e t o f t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n , Baghdad i n t e n s i f i e d e f f o r t s t o move away from t h e S o v i e t o r b i t , a p r o c e s s t h a t had been s e t i n m o t i o n i n t h e mid-1970s, and t o e s t a b l i s h warmer t i e s w i t h t h e West. T h i s s h i f t i n a major d i m e n s i o n o f I r a q ' s e x t e r n a l a f f a i r s stemmed from a p r a g m a t i c b a s i s ; by and l a r g e , t h e B a a t h i s t s were c o g n i z a n t t h a t w i t h o u t Western s a n c t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y from London and Washington, t h e u l t i m a t e a r b i t e r s o f t h e G u l f power e q u a t i o n , a b i d f o r r e g i o n a l hegemony was u n t e n a b l e . More p r e c i s e l y , t h e Baath e l i t e was aware t h a t t h e B r i t i s h and t h e A m e r i c a n s , g i v e n t h e i r h i s t o r y o f entanglement i n G u l f a f f a i r s , w ould n o t a l l o w a S o v i e t dependency t o assume a p o s i t i o n o f l e a d e r s h i p i n t h e r e g i o n . T h i s r e a l i z a t i o n s p u r r e d t h e B aath e l i t e ' s e f f o r t s t o d i s t a n c e I r a q from Moscow and i t s E a s t e r n b l o c a l l i e s . The l o o s e n i n g o f t h e I r a q i nexus w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and v a r i o u s e a s t e r n European n a t i o n s , a t t h e c o r e o f w h i c h was t h e 1972 T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o o p e r a t i o n w i t h Moscow, was a c c e l e r a t e d w i t h t h e Shah's d o w n f a l l . However, t h e B a a t h regime was c a r e f u l t o a v o i d t h e appearance o f r u s h i n g t o embrace t h e West i n an o p p o r t u n i s t i c b i d f o r r e g i o n a l power, f o r such an image would have l i k e l y s t i r r e d s u s p i c i o n among t h e m o n a r c h i a l e l i t e s o f t h e l i t t o r a l s t a t e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e c o o l i n g o f r e l a t i o n s w i t h Moscow 197 was c o n d u c t e d i n a r a t h e r g r a d u a l , s u b t l e manner. O c c a s i o n a l , p r o - S o v i e t pronouncements c o n t i n u e d t o be p u t f o r t h by Baghdad. By and l a r g e , t h e o b j e c t i v e o f t h e B a a t h i s t s was n o t t o c o m p l e t e l y a l i e n a t e t h e S o v i e t s b u t , r a t h e r , t o s i g n a l t h a t I r a q ' s d r i v e f o r r e g i o n a l dominance, w h i c h was c o n t i n g e n t on a r e a l i z a t i o n o f W estern s u p p o r t , would n o t be hampered by a t o o c l o s e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w i t h t h e E a s t . However, t h e s l o w , q u i e t d r i f t away from Moscow was d i s r u p t e d by t h e S o v i e t i n v a s i o n o f A f g h a n i s t a n , w h i c h p r o v i d e d t h e B a a t h i s t s w i t h a p r e t e x t t o a c c e l e r a t e t h e p r o c e s s o f d e c o u p l i n g I r a q from t h e Communist r e a l m . O f f i c i a l condemnation o f t h e S o v i e t a g g r e s s i o n was i m m e d i a t e l y conveyed by Baghdad: on 6 J a n u a r y 1980, d u r i n g a speech commemorating t h e f i f t y - n i n t h a n n i v e r s a r y o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h e I r a q i army, Saddam H u s s e i n denounced Moscow's d e c i s i o n t o i n t e r v e n e d i r e c t l y i n t h e t u m u l t i n A f g h a n i s t a n as a "dangerous development" t h a t c o n s t i t u t e d a f u r t h e r blow t o r e g i o n a l s t a b i l i t y . 3 0 Beyond t h e l o d g i n g o f p r o t e s t s , t h e Baath e l i t e d e c i d e d , as a f u r t h e r p u n i t o r y measure, t o r e d u c e t h e l e v e l o f o i l e x p o r t e d t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n by f i f t y p e r c e n t , from 340,000 t o 170,000 b a r r e l s p e r d a y . 3 1 O v e r a l l , a l t h o u g h I r a q i - S o v i e t r e l a t i o n s were weakened c o n s i d e r a b l y , as e v i d e n c e d by t h e B a a t h e l i t e ' s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f j e t t i s o n i n g t h e f r i e n d s h i p and c o o p e r a t i o n 198 p a c t i n F e b r u a r y o f 1980, an open l i n e o f communication was m a i n t a i n e d between Baghdad and Moscow, e s p e c i a l l y r e g a r d i n g I r a q ' s a g g r e s s i v e d e s i g n s toward I r a n . T h i s can be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e B a a t h i s t s ' r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t , a l b e i t t h e West, p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , e x e r t e d g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e G u l f t h a n t h e E a s t , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , i n k e e p i n g w i t h c e n t u r i e s o f R u s s i a n m e d d l i n g i n I r a n , was k e e n l y i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e r e g i o n ' s a f f a i r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e f l o w o f p e t r o l e u m . A c c o r d i n g l y , Baghdad c o n c l u d e d t h a t Moscow's a c q u i e s c e n c e f o r any f o r a y i n t o I r a n had t o be s e c u r e d . S i m p l y p u t , I r a q c o u l d n o t a f f o r d t o u n d e r t a k e any a c t i o n s t h a t c o u l d evoke a d i r e c t S o v i e t c h a l l e n g e . Toward r e a l i z i n g a s s u r a n c e s from t h e R u s s i a n s t h a t s u ch a r e s p o n s e would not be f o r t h c o m i n g , T a r i q A z i z t r a v e l e d t o Moscow i n l a t e September o f 1980, o s t e n s i b l y t o g i v e t h e Brezhnev regime a f i n a l b r i e f i n g r e g a r d i n g t h e p l a n n e d I r a q i i n c u r s i o n . 3 2 And, i t can be adduced from t h e f a c t t h a t t h e i n v a s i o n was e x e c u t e d s h o r t l y t h e r e a f t e r , no s e r i o u s S o v i e t o b j e c t i o n s t o t h e B a a t h i s t s ' g o a l s were r a i s e d a t t h i s j u n c t u r e . Moscow's l a c k o f r e s e r v a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g an I r a q i i r r u p t i o n t h a t aimed a t d e p o s i n g t h e I r a n i a n c l e r i c a l regime, w h i c h can be l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t e d t o a c o n c e r n t h a t I s l a m i c f undamentalism m i g h t s p r e a d t o t h e p r e d o m i n a t e l y M u s l i m - p o p u l a t e d S o v i e t r e p u b l i c s o f T u r k m e n i s t a n and A z e r b a i j a n , s e r v e d t o b o l s t e r b o t h t h e 199 B a a t h i s t s ' i n c e n t i v e s and p e r c e p t i o n s o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a g g r e s s i o n a g a i n s t t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c . As a l r e a d y mentioned, t h e I r a q i s h i f t away from t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was a c o n c o m i t a n t o f t h e movement t o w a r d t h e West. By and l a r g e , t h e B a a t h i s t s l o o k e d upon I r a q ' s v a s t p e t r o l e u m r e s e r v e s as a v i a b l e medium w h i c h c o u l d be u t i l i z e d t o e n t i c e t h e West i n t o a f f o r d i n g s u p p o r t t o Baghdad's b i d t o f i l l t h e r e g i o n a l power v o i d engendered by t h e r e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n . A c c o r d i n g l y , when t h e f l o w o f I r a n i a n c r u d e was i n t e r r u p t e d , l a r g e l y as a r e s u l t o f s a n c t i o n s imposed by Western powers i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e h o s t a g e impasse, t h e Baath l e a d e r s h i p wasted l i t t l e t i m e i n o f f e r i n g t o i n c r e a s e o i l e x p o r t s t o v a r i o u s European s t a t e s and J a p a n , w h i c h had p r e v i o u s l y r e c e i v e d a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e i r p e t r o l e u m s u p p l i e s from Teheran. The volume o f t r a d e between I r a q and t h e s e s t a t e s a l s o i n c r e a s e d c o n s i d e r a b l y . Of s i g n i f i c a n t i m p o r t , i n terms o f s o l i d i f y i n g I r a q ' s c o n f i d e n c e t o a c t i v e l y pursue i t s b i d f o r G u l f supremacy, and t o assume a l e a d e r s h i p r o l e among Arab s t a t e s i n g e n e r a l , was t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g o f economic c o o p e r a t i o n between Baghdad and P a r i s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e F r e n c h became a c t i v e l y i n v o l v e d i n I r a q ' s e f f o r t s t o c o n s t r u c t a n u c l e a r power s t a t i o n . The Baath regime b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a v i a b l e n u c l e a r power system w o u l d g r e a t l y h e i g h t e n r e s p e c t o f I r a q t h r o u g h o u t t h e A r a b w o r l d . 200 Moreover, t h e v a s t F r e n c h armaments i n d u s t r y o f f e r e d t h e B a a t h i s t s a s o u r c e f o r a c q u i r i n g s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t weapon systems f o r s t r e n g t h e n i n g I r a q ' s m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y . London a l s o demonstrated a w i l l i n g n e s s t o e x p l o r e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f i m p r o v i n g t i e s w i t h t h e B a a t h government. I n J u l y o f 1979, t h e B r i t i s h d i s p a t c h e d L o r d C a r r i n g t o n , t h e M i n i s t e r o f F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , t o Baghdad t o p a r l e y w i t h r a n k i n g I r a q i o f f i c i a l s r e g a r d i n g means o f i n c r e a s i n g B r i t i s h - I r a q i c o o p e r a t i o n . And, i n F e b r u a r y o f 1980, Saadoun Hammadi, t h e I r a q i F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r , d e c l a r e d d u r i n g an i n t e r v i e w w i t h A l - T h a w r a f t h e o f f i c i a l forum o f t h e B a a t h i s t s , t h a t economic, t e c h n i c a l and c u l t u r a l p a c t s were b e i n g c o n c l u d e d w i t h v a r i o u s o t h e r w e s t e r n European s t a t e s , i n c l u d i n g West Germany and Belgium. Bonn and B r u s s e l s , as w e l l as Tokyo, were a l s o a s s u r e d t h a t Baghdad s t o o d r e a d y t o meet t h e i r r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r p e t r o l e u m . I n s h o r t , t h e i n c r e a s e i n economic c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h w e s t e r n Europe and J a p an, i n c l u d i n g g r e a t e r a c c e s s t o t h e m a r k e t s o f t h e s e p o w e r f u l s t a t e s , c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e B a a t h e l i t e ' s p e r c e p t i o n t h a t i t had e s t a b l i s h e d an adequate l e v e l o f e x t e r n a l s u p p o r t f o r p r o p e r l y e x e c u t i n g t h e c o n f l i c t w i t h I r a n . L a s t l y , i n terms o f e x p l a i n i n g t h e w i l l i n g n e s s o f t h e I r a q i s t o engage t h e I s l a m i c r e p u b l i c , a c i t i n g o f t h e a c c e l e r a t e d , a l b e i t q u i e t , rapprochement between Baghdad and Washington, i s o f c e n t r a l i m p o r t a n c e . Formal d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s between t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and I r a q were s e v e r e d 201 f o l l o w i n g t h e 1967 A r a b - I s r a e l i c o n f l i c t , a development w h i c h stemmed from Washington's c a r t e b l a n c h e s u p p o r t o f T e l A v i v ' s Z i o n i s t v i s i o n s . However, n o t u n e x p e c t e d l y , t h e impasse on t h e d i p l o m a t i c f r o n t d i d n o t p r e v e n t t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t r a d e r e l a t i o n s between t h e two s t a t e s , t h e volume o f w h i c h i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y from t h e mid- t o l a t e 1970s. The i n c r e a s e i n c o o p e r a t i o n i n t h e economic s p h e r e was accompanied by a g r a d u a l s o f t e n i n g o f Washington's p e r c e p t i o n o f Saddam H u s s e i n as an a u t o c r a t who t o o k h i s cue from Moscow. 3 3 I n t e r e s t i n g l y , i t was n o t u n t i l t h e demise o f t h e P a h l a v i d y n a s t y t h a t Washington began t o c o u r t t h e Baath regime i n e a r n e s t . I n e a r l y 1979, a number o f I r a q i o f f i c i a l s , i n c l u d i n g F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Hammadi, began t o i n t i m a t e t h a t a l t h o u g h no s i g n i f i c a n t s h i f t i n Baghdad's o r i e n t a t i o n t o ward t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s had t r a n s p i r e d , i t was n o t b e l i e v e d t h a t d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s would "remain f o r e v e r b r o k e n . " 3 4 The B a a t h i s t s v a g u e l y q u a l i f i e d t h e meaning o f such pronouncements by o p e n l y c a u t i o n i n g t h a t no improvement i n I r a q i - A m e r i c a n t i e s would o b t a i n u n l e s s Washington c o n s i d e r a b l y a l t e r e d i t s p o l i c y t oward t h e Near E a s t . However, i n a c t u a l t erms, t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f s u c h l i n k a g e amounted t o a mere r h e t o r i c a l f a c a d e t h r o u g h w h i c h t o a v o i d a l a r m i n g p o t e n t i a l Arab a l l i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e l i t t o r a l s t a t e s , w h i c h were c o n v i n c e d t h a t Washington, s t u n g by t h e l o s s o f i t s f o r e m o s t a l l y i n t h e r e g i o n , was b e n t on 202 r e a s s e r t i n g i t s l e v e r a g e o v e r t h e G u l f and, t h a t i n q u e s t o f t h i s end, t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s would l i k e l y s e r v e t o f u r t h e r d e s t a b i l i z e peace i n t h e r e g i o n . The need t o a l l a y s u ch c o n c e r n s c o n s t i t u t e d t h e impetus b e h i n d I r a q ' s open c a l l f o r major changes i n American p o l i c y t o ward t h e Arab w o r l d . O v e r a l l , a t t h e c e n t e r o f t h e m e l i o r a t i o n o f I r a q i - A m e r i c a n r e l a t i o n s was t h e f o r m e r ' s p e r c e p t i o n s o f u t i l i t y , i n terms o f r e a l i z i n g r e g i o n a l d e s i g n s , i n h e r e n t i n such a development. T h i s was c l e a r l y e v i d e n c e d by Saddam H u s s e i n when, i n F e b r u a r y , he p u b l i c l y a s s e r t e d t h a t Baghdad would be w i l l i n g t o r e e s t a b l i s h d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h Washington o n l y i f t h i s would e f f e c t a f u r t h e r i n g o f pan- A r a b i s m and u n s p e c i f i e d " I r a q i n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s . " 3 5 The c o n d u c t i n g o f i n c r e a s i n g l y f r e q u e n t , l a r g e l y b e h i n d - t h e - s c e n e s c o n t a c t s between A m e r i c a n and I r a q i o f f i c i a l s was f a c i l i t a t e d by d i p l o m a t i c m i s s i o n s o f t h i r d n a t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e B e l g i a n Embassy i n Baghdad and t h e I n d i a n Embassy i n Washington. On 10 A p r i l , Edward Peck, t h e s e n i o r o f f i c e r a t t a c h e d t o t h e American i n t e r e s t s s e c t i o n a t t h e B e l g i a n m i s s i o n , was extended an i n v i t a t i o n t o a t t e n d an o f f i c i a l government f u n c t i o n ; t h i s e v e n t marked t h e h i g h e s t d i p l o m a t i c c o n t a c t between t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and I r a q i n a number o f y e a r s . 3 6 A f u r t h e r i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was i n t e r e s t e d i n e mploying I r a q as a means o f a t t e m p t i n g t o r o l l back t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n came i n e a r l y F e b r u a r y o f 1980 when, a c c o r d i n g t o The W a l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l , 203 Zbigenew B r z e z i n s k i , an a s s i s t a n t f o r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y a f f a i r s under P r e s i d e n t Jimmy C a r t e r , u n d e r t o o k a c l a n d e s t i n e "28-hour v i s i t " t o Baghdad, where he h e l d d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h I r a q i o f f i c i a l s , i n c l u d i n g Saddam H u s s e i n and M i c h e l A f l a q , a l e a d i n g Baath i d e o l o g u e , r e g a r d i n g d e t a i l s o f a " s e c u r i t y a l l i a n c e " between Washington and B a g h d a d . 3 7 Such s e c r e t i v e c o n t a c t s were consonant w i t h o f f i c i a l pronouncements p u t f o r t h by t h e U.S. S t a t e Department w h i c h , b e g i n n i n g i n a p p r o x i m a t e l y mid-1980, began t o a s s e r t t h a t c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n t h e G u l f r e g i o n had made i t " i m p o r t a n t " f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o r e e s t a b l i s h f o r m a l d i p l o m a t i c t i e s w i t h I r a q . And, i n terms o f i n c e n t i v e s f o r s e c u r i n g Baghdad's s u p p o r t f o r t h e American l i n e t o w a r d t h e G u l f and t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n , t h e S t a t e Department a u t h o r i z e d t h e s a l e o f p o w e r f u l gas t u r b i n e e n g i n e s m a n u f a c t u r e d by G e n e r a l E l e c t r i c , w h i c h were t o be i n s t a l l e d i n n a v a l v e s s e l s under c o n s t r u c t i o n i n I t a l y , and a number o f B o e i n g 727 and 747 t r a n s p o r t a i r c r a f t . By and l a r g e , Washington was d e t e r m i n e d t o s i g n a l t o t h e B a a t h regime t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l e b e n e f i t s would accompany I r a q ' s w i l l i n g n e s s t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e e f f o r t t o c o n t a i n t h e I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n and t o t h e r e b y f o r e s t a l l any d i s r u p t i o n s o f t h e economic s t a t u s quo i n t h e G u l f , w h i c h had a l l o w e d t h e West t o r e a p c o n s i d e r a b l e p r o f i t . T h i s c r u c i a l s o u r c e o f s u p p o r t r e i n f o r c e d b o t h t h e 204 B a a t h i s t s * i n c e n t i v e and o p p o r t u n i t y s t r u c t u r e s and cemented t h e i r r e s o l v e t o under take a b i d a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . C o n c l u s i o n Two major i n f e r e n c e s can be drawn from t h e f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n . F i r s t and foremost , t h e m a v e r i c k n a t u r e o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y i d e a l s , which i n c l u d e d a p r o f o u n d d i s d a i n f o r the v a r i o u s s e c u l a r monarch ie s w i t h i n the A r a b w o r l d , s t r o n g suppor t f o r the P a l e s t i n i a n s ' d r i v e f o r an independent s t a t e , and a c o n c o m i t a n t , i n t e n s e o p p o s i t i o n toward Z i o n i s m , s e r v e d t o g r e a t l y d i m i n i s h the number o f Near E a s t e r n s t a t e s t h a t would p r o f f e r a i d t o r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n i n the event t h a t i t s n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y was d i r e c t l y j e o p a r d i z e d by an e x t e r n a l f o e . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e breakdown o f the Teheran-Washington a x i s , as w e l l as the a t t e n d a n t o v e r t h o s t i l i t y toward Moscow d i s p l a y e d by t h e K h o m e i n i s t s , made the l i k e l i h o o d o f e i t h e r superpower coming t o t h e r e s c u e o f the I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c even more remote . S e c o n d l y , the advantages a c c r u i n g from t h e i s o l a t i o n o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n were c o n s i d e r a b l e and—most i m p o r t a n t o f a l l — t h e y s e r v e d t o b o l s t e r e x i s t i n g I r a q i i n c e n t i v e s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r c o n d u c t i n g a s h o r t and d e c i s i v e i n r o a d . C l o s e t o home, the l o n g - s t a n d i n g enmity between t h e Baath regime and t h e G u l f monarchies d i s s i p a t e d r a p i d l y a f t e r the d o w n f a l l o f t h e Shah. Thus , the B a a t h i s t s were g r a n t e d acces s t o t h e immense f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s o f t h e s e s t a t e s , a development which added t o Baghdad's c o n f i d e n c e t h a t i t 205 would p r e v a i l o v e r Teheran and Qom. And, v i s - a - v i s t h e q u i e t , moderate s h i f t i n t h e i r s t a n c e r e g a r d i n g t h e E a s t - West d i v i s i o n , t h e B a a t h i s t s were a b l e t o e n l i s t t h e much more v a l u a b l e s u p p o r t o f t h e l a t t e r , w h i l e a v e r t i n g a complete a l i e n a t i o n o f t h e former. A l l i n a l l , t h i s change worked t o t h e b e n e f i t o f I r a q . 206 CHAPTER VI NOTES i n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , June 1979), p. 203. 2 R o b e r t Ghobad D a r i u s , "Khomeini's P o l i c y t o w a r d t h e M i d e a s t , " i n G u l f S e c u r i t y i n t o t h e 1980s: P e r c e p t u a l and S t r a t e g i c D imensions, ed. R o b e r t G. D a r i u s , J o h n W. Amos I I , and R a l p h H. Magnus ( P a l o A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , Hoover I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1984), p. 36. 3New Yo r k Times. 23 A p r i l 1980. 4 F r e d H a l l i d a y , " I r a n i a n F o r e i g n P o l i c y S i n c e 1979: I n t e r n a t i o n a l i s m and N a t i o n a l i s m i n t h e I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n , " i n S h i ' i s m and S o c i a l P r o t e s t , ed. Ju a n R . I . C o l e and N i k k i R. K e d d i e (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1986), p. 102. 5 R o g e r M. Savory, "Khumayni's I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n a r y Movement," i n I r a n - I r a q and t h e G u l f War, ed. R o b e r t Spencer ( T o r o n t o : C e n t r e f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o , 1982), p. 33. 6 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , May 1980), p. 128. 7 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , O c t o b e r 1980), p. 584. 8 S a v o r y , p. 34. 9 I b i d . , p. 49. 1 0 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , June 1979), p. 204. 1 1 R u h o l l a h Khomeini, I s l a m and R e v o l u t i o n , t r a n s . Hamid A l g a r ( B e r k e l e y : M i z a n P r e s s , 1981), p. 27. 1 2 S h a r i f M. S h u j a , " I s l a m i c R e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n and I t s Impact on I r a q , " I s l a m i c S t u d i e s : J o u r n a l o f t h e I s l a m i c R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e 3 (Autumn 1980):213. 207 1 3Shameem A k h t a r , "Impact o f t h e I s l a m i c Movement i n I r a n on t h e R e g i o n , " P a k i s t a n H o r i z o n 1-2 (1979):95. 14 S a v o r y , p. 42. 1 5 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , November 1979), p. 674. 1 6 R o u h o l l a h K. Ramazani, R e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n : C h a l l e n g e and Response i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t ( B a l t i m o r e , M a r y l a n d : The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1988), p. 23. 1 7 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , November 1979), p. 674. 1 8 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , A p r i l 1980), p. 15. 1 9 J o h n W. Amos I I , "The I r a q - I r a n War: C o n f l i c t , L i n k a g e , and S p i l l o v e r i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t , " i n G u l f S e c u r i t y i n t o t h e 1980s: P e r c e p t u a l and S t r a t e g i c D i m e n s i o n s , ed. R o b e r t D a r i u s , John W. Amos I I , and R a l p h H. Magnus ( P a l o A l t o , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , Hoover I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1984), p. 59. 2 0 C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r , 21 June 1979. 2 1 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Baghdad I r a q i News Agency i n A r a b i c , " A t h Thawrah T h r e a t e n s Arab E a s t e r n F l a n k , " 20 June 1979, JN200950. 2 2 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Baghdad I r a q i News Agency i n A r a b i c , " P o p u l a r R a l l y i n Baghdad Denounces I r a n i a n Regime," 30 June 1979, JN301800. 2 3 C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r . 19 December 1979. 2 4 F a u d M a t a r , Saddam H u s s e i n : The Man, t h e Cause, and t h e F u t u r e (London: T h i r d World C e n t r e , 1981), p. 140. 2 5 A d e e d I . Dawisha, " I r a q : The West's O p p o r t u n i t y , " F o r e i g n P o l i c y 41 ( W i n t e r 1980-1981):146. 2 6 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Baghdad I r a q i News Agency i n A r a b i c , " A t h Thawrah Warns I r a n A g a i n s t I n t e r v e n t i o n i n G u l f , " 29 September 1979, JN543930. 208 2 7New Yo r k Times. 12 June 1980. 2 8A.H.H.H. A b i d i , "The I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n i n t h e P e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e G u l f S t a t e s , " i n Contemporary G u l f , ed. Su r e n d r a B h u t a n i (New D e l h i : The Academic P r e s s , 1980), p. 27. 2 9 C h r i s t i a n S c i e n c e M o n i t o r . 11 A p r i l 1979. 3 0 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , F e b r u a r y 1980), p. 973. 3 1 R o b e r t P o u l i o t , " I r a q ' s D r i v e f o r Power," W o r l d P r e s s Review 7 ( J u l y 1980):28. 3 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , O c t o b e r 1980), p. 595. 3 3 C l a u d i a W r i g h t , " I r a q — N e w Power i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t , " F o r e i g n A f f a i r s 2 ( W i n t e r 1979-1980):260. 3 4 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , An-Nahar A l - A r a b i Wa Ad-Duwali i n A r a b i c , " F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r D i s c u s s e s I r a n , R e l a t i o n s w i t h U.S.S.R.," 22 J a n u a r y 1979, LD231401. 3 5 U . S . F o r e i g n B r o a d c a s t I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , M i d d l e E a s t A s i a , Baghdad I r a q i News Agency i n A r a b i c , "Saddam H u s s e i n on R e l a t i o n s w i t h I r a n , U n i t e d S t a t e s , " 14 F e b r u a r y 1979, JN141256. 3 6 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , May 1979), p. 129. 3 7 I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , News Review on West A s i a (New D e l h i : I n s t i t u t e f o r Defense A n a l y s i s , F e b r u a r y 1980), p. 1058. CHAPTER V I I SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS My d e s i r e t o examine t h e I r a q i b i d a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e was i n d u c e d by s e v e r a l f a c t o r s . The r e c e n c y o f t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s u b j e c t i s f i r s t and f o r e m o s t among t h e s e . W h i l e many renowned a n a l y s t s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t engender i n t e r s t a t e war acknowledge t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , no d e t a i l e d work, t o my knowledge, on t h e m o t i v a t i o n s and d e s i g n s u n d e r g i r d i n g Baghdad's q u e s t f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e — o r p o s t r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n ' s v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o a sudden s t r i k e — h a d been u n d e r t a k e n p r i o r t o t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f t h i s p r o j e c t . Second i s K n o r r and Morgan's model f o r case s t u d i e s , w h i c h p r o v i d e d t h e c o n c e p t u a l t o o l f o r p u l l i n g t o g e t h e r t h e m u l t i v a r i a t e t h r e a d s o f a p p l i c a b l e , e m p i r i c a l d a t a i n t o a c o m p r e h e n s i b l e , a n a l y t i c a l p a t t e r n . T h i s c h a p t e r e n t a i l s a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f some o f t h e more common a s p e c t s o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e e l u c i d a t e d i n t h i s t r a c t . R a t h e r t h a n p u t f o r t h a c u r s o r y summary o f t h e I r a q - I r a n c a s e , I w i l l a t t e m p t , by d r a w i n g p a r a l l e l s w i t h e a r l i e r , n o t e d i n s t a n c e s o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , t o shed f u r t h e r l i g h t on g e n e r a l phenomena a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . 209 210 A g r a n d t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c l u s i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e o u t b r e a k o f t h e r e c e n t l y ended I r a n - I r a q war can be a t t r i b u t e d t o a m u t u a l l y r e i n f o r c i n g m i s e s t i m a t i o n and s h o r t c o m i n g : t h e e x p e c t a t i o n i n Baghdad t h a t p r i n c i p a l t e r r i t o r i a l and p o l i t i c a l d e s i g n s c o u l d be r e a l i z e d t h r o u g h a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k upon K h u z e s t a n — t h e r e b y a v o i d i n g a p r o t r a c t e d , c o s t l y w a r — a n d t h e f a i l u r e o f key I r a n i a n p o l i t i c a l a c t o r s , b o t h i n Teheran and Qom, t o g a i n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g o f t h e p l a n n e d I r a q i i n r o a d . The f o r m e r m i s c a l c u l a t i o n h e i g h t e n e d t h e w i l l i n g n e s s o f t h e I r a q i e l i t e t o r e s o r t t o a use o f m i l i t a r y f o r c e t o r e s o l v e t h e p o l i t i c a l and t e r r i t o r i a l f r i c t i o n w i t h I r a n , w h i l e t h e l a t t e r f a i l u r e p r e v e n t e d I r a n i a n p o l i t i c a l e l i t e s , b o t h s e c u l a r and c l e r i c a l , from u n d e r t a k i n g e f f e c t i v e c ountermeasures t o ward o f f an I r a q i a t t a c k upon t h e i m p o r t a n t s o u t h w e s t e r n p r o v i n c e s . A c o n s i d e r a b l e p o r t i o n o f t h i s volume e n t a i l e d a t r e a t m e n t o f t h e s e two i n t e r a c t i n g f a u l t s ; t h i s a n a l y s i s f a c i l i t a t e d an e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e h o s t i l e i n t e r a c t i o n s between t h e I r a q i and I r a n i a n regimes w h i c h c u l m i n a t e d i n t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f t h e I r a n - I r a q war. However, a h i g h l y c o n c l u s i v e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e I r a q i campaign t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n w i l l o n l y be p o s s i b l e i f and when p e r t i n e n t documents o f each b e l l i g e r e n t ( e . g . , p e r s o n a l memoirs o f key o f f i c i a l s , i n t e l l i g e n c e e v a l u a t i o n s , and d i p l o m a t i c c a b l e s ) become a v a i l a b l e f o r s c h o l a r l y s c r u t i n y . G i v e n t h e p a u c i t y o f c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e , a l o n g w i t h a heavy r e l i a n c e upon t r a n s c r i p t s o f speeches and newspaper a r t i c l e s , t h e a n a l y s i s c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n t h i s t h e s i s can o n l y be a c c u r a t e l y d e s c r i b e d as somewhat s p e c u l a t i v e . But w h i l e t h e h y p o t h e s e s propounded i n t h i s t h e s i s have n o t been documented t o a c o n c l u s i v e d egree, I have demonstrated a c o n s i s t e n c y between t h e f i n d i n g s I have p u t f o r t h and t h e e v i d e n c e c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n t h i s work. A p r i n c i p a l f i n d i n g o f t h i s s t u d y i s t h a t s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e c o n s t i t u t e s a complex phenomenon f o r s t u d y . Indeed, t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i s i n f l u e n c e d by a m y r i a d o f f a c t o r s . The I r a q - I r a n c a s e , s i m i l a r t o s e v e r a l c e l e b r a t e d i n s t a n c e s o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e i n t h e p a s t , i n v o l v e d a complex c a u s a t i o n . I n t h i s s t u d y , a number o f s i g n i f i c a n t o b s e r v a t i o n s r e l a t e t o t h e complex a r r a y o f d i s t i n c t b u t i n t e r a c t i n g l e v e l s o f c a u s a l i t y t h a t t y p i c a l l y a c t u a t e a g o v e r n i n g e l i t e ' s s e a r c h f o r s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . I n t h i s volume, t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s e f a c t o r s , w h i c h i n c l u d e t h o s e o f a h i s t o r i c a l , p o l i t i c a l , i d e o l o g i c a l , economic, and g e o s t r a t e g i c a l n a t u r e , has been l a r g e l y c o n d u c t e d v i s - a - v i s e x p o s i t i o n . I n terms o f t h e b a s i s f o r an a t t a c k i n g s t a t e ' s m o t i v a t i o n s f o r a t t e m p t i n g a s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , t h e r u l i n g e l i t e ' s v i s i o n s o f n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y , o r t h e more nebulous 212 t e r m o f " n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , " a r e o f t e n c r u c i a l . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e c o n c e r n o f t h e I s l a m i c r e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n and t h e a t t e n d a n t s p e c t e r o f a " s p i l l i n g o v e r " o f t r a d i t i o n a l I s l a m i c z e a l , i t appears t h a t g e o p o l i t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s were f a r more i m p o r t a n t i n p r o m p t i n g t h e B a a t h i s t s t o s t r i k e a t I r a n . C o r r e l a t i o n s can be d i s c e r n e d between t h e I r a q i e x p e r i e n c e and s e v e r a l e a r l i e r e f f o r t s t o o b t a i n s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . F o r example, t h e i m p e r i a l Japanese e l i t e b e l i e v e d t h a t f o r J a p a n t o r i s e t o t h e s t a t i o n o f m a jor g l o b a l power, a c c e s s t o t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s o f s o u t h e a s t A s i a was i m p e r a t i v e . The U n i t e d S t a t e s and, t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , G r e a t B r i t a i n , due t o t h e i r armed p r e s e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n , s t o o d as major o b s t a c l e s t o Japan's b i d f o r hegemony. I t was t h e removal o f t h e s e o b s t a c l e s w h i c h c o n s t i t u t e d t h e impetus f o r t h e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k s upon A m e r i c a n f o r c e s i n H a w a i i and upon B r i t i s h f o r c e s on t h e M a l a y P e n i n s u l a . I t was borne o u t i n t h i s s t u d y t h a t , s i m i l a r t o t h e g o a l s w h i c h animated Tokyo's m i l i t a r i s t i c agenda i n t h e e a r l y 1940s, Baghdad's i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e r e s t e d upon a number o f o f f e n s i v e d e s i g n s : c h i e f among t h e s e were aggrandizement o f e c o n o m i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t segments o f I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y . T h i s g e o p o l i t i c a l i m p u l s e was grounded on t h e B a a t h e l i t e ' s c a r d i n a l s t r a t e g i c d e s i g n : t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f I r a q i hegemony o v e r t h e G u l f , an end p a r a l l e l e d by Baghdad's d e s i r e t o p l a y a l e a d i n g r o l e , i n t h e E g y p t i a n t r a d i t i o n , 213 among Arab n a t i o n s . O v e r a l l , a q u e s t f o r hegemony c o n s t i t u t e d t h e paramount d e t e r m i n a n t u n d e r l y i n g t h e Baath regime's i n c e n t i v e s ; and on t h i s s c o r e , t h e I r a q i campaign t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e I r a n s h a r e d s i m i l a r i t i e s w i t h Germany's e f f o r t t o s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s e t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . A l t h o u g h t h i s o b s e r v e d s i m i l a r i t y does n o t c o n s t i t u t e grounds t o i n f e r a u n i v e r s a l l y v a l i d maxim on t h e phenomenon o f s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e , i t i s n o t u n r e a s o n a b l e t o m a i n t a i n t h a t hegemonic a s p i r a t i o n s a r e n o t an uncommon m o t i v a t i o n f o r s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s i n g an a d v e r s a r y . An a d d i t i o n a l major c o n c l u s i o n o f t h i s e s s a y i s t h a t t h e o v e r r i d i n g f i x a t i o n on a t t a i n i n g t h e i r a g g r e s s i v e t e r r i t o r i a l g o a l s b l i n d e d t h e B a a t h i s t s t o t h e danger t h a t such an u n d e r t a k i n g c o u l d go p r o f o u n d l y awry. I n s h o r t , Baghdad f a i l e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h a t t h e I r a n i a n c l e r i c a l regime would r e s o r t t o a t o t a l war t o de f e n d I r a n i a n t e r r i t o r y . Moreover, I r a q ' s l e a d e r s h i p e r r e d i n n o t t a k i n g a more c a u t i o n a r y a pproach t o t h e I r a n i a n R e v o l u t i o n . An i n - d e p t h e x a m i n a t i o n was n o t n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o g r a s p t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e v o l u t i o n had w i d e s p r e a d s u p p o r t a t t h e g r a s s r o o t s l e v e l and t h a t t h e K h o m e i n i s t s c o u l d r e a d i l y m o b i l i z e t h e energy o f t h e masses t o c o n f r o n t an i n t r u s i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , Baghdad s h o u l d have t h o u g h t o f Khomeini's f i e r y r e s o l v e . G i v e n t h e Imam's avowal o f s p r e a d i n g t h e r e v o l u t i o n , t h e Baat h regime s h o u l d have r e a l i z e d t h a t an i n c u r s i o n i n t o t h e I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c would c o n s t i t u t e a c h a l l e n g e w h i c h Khomeini 214 would r e s p o n d t o w i t h optimum z e a l and d e t e r m i n a t i o n . Saddam H u s s e i n ' s s h o r t c o m i n g on t h i s s c o r e somewhat r e f l e c t s H i t l e r ' s f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e t h e r e s o l v e o f t h e d i c t a t o r i a l S t a l i n t o d e f e n d S o v i e t t e r r i t o r y . A c o n s i d e r a b l e p o r t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s was d e v o t e d t o e x a m i n i n g t h e f a i l u r e o f t h e t a r g e t s t a t e t o g a i n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g o f t h e a g g r e s s o r ' s d e s i g n s and t o u n d e r t a k e d e f e n s i v e counter-measures. I n e x p l a i n i n g f a i l u r e s t o r e a l i z e s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g , a number o f key r e a s o n s have been c i t e d . F i r s t and fo r e m o s t a r e t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e n a t u r e o f w a r n i n g s i g n a l s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e t a r g e t s t a t e . A c c u r a t e t h r e a t p e r c e p t i o n and t h e a t t e n d a n t r e a l i z a t i o n o f s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g i s no s m a l l f e a t . I have a t t e m p t e d t o e s t a b l i s h t h a t I r a n ' s d i s a d v a n t a g e o u s p o s i t i o n on t h i s s c o r e stemmed p a r t l y from t h e a u t h o r i t a r i a n n a t u r e o f i t s I r a q i a d v e r s a r y . S i m i l a r t o s e v e r a l r e g i m e s w h i c h have s u c c e s s f u l l y o r c h e s t r a t e d s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e s i n t h e p a s t , most n o t a b l y i m p e r i a l Japan and N a t i o n a l S o c i a l i s t Germany, t h e B a a t h i s t s were a b l e t o o p e r a t e i n an environment n e a r l y w h o l l y a l o o f from t h e n o r m a t i v e c o n s t r a i n t s o f p u b l i c s c r u t i n y t h a t h o l d sway i n d e m o c r a t i c p o l i t i c a l systems. More p r e c i s e l y , t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e I r a n i a n i n t e l l i g e n c e community t o e f f e c t i v e l y m o n i t o r I r a q i p l a n s , a l r e a d y marred by t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y u p h e a v a l , was even f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e d by t h e h i g h l y c r y p t i c b e h a v i o r o f t h e a u t o c r a t i c Baath c a b a l . The i m p o r t a n t g e n e r a l l e s s o n t o 215 be drawn from t h i s i s n o t t h a t s t a t e s g o v e r n e d by a u t h o r i t a r i a n regimes w i l l always s u c c e e d i n s t r a t e g i c a l l y s u r p r i s i n g an a d v e r s a r y , b u t , r a t h e r , t h a t a t a r g e t s t a t e w i l l f i n d t h e t a s k o f o b t a i n i n g s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g more arduous when f a c i n g an a u t o c r a t i c , as opposed t o a d e m o c r a t i c , opponent. T h i s was one o f t h e d i f f i c u l t p roblems e n c o u n t e r e d by S t a l i n i n g a u g i n g H i t l e r ' s d e s i g n s . However, i t would be i n a c c u r a t e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t no p o t e n t i a l w a r n i n g s i g n a l s were a v a i l a b l e t o t h e I r a n i a n e l i t e . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e s e c r e t i v e demeanor o f t h e B a a t h i s t s , t h e r e were innumerable I r a q i m a c h i n a t i o n s t h a t c o u l d have b e l i e d a h o s t i l e i n t e n t t o c a r e f u l I r a n i a n o b s e r v e r s . F o r example, Baghdad's f r e q u e n t and open pronouncements o f d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h e f f o r t s t o r e a c h a d i p l o m a t i c compromise on t e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e s s h o u l d have a l e r t e d I r a n i a n o f f i c i a l s t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t I r a q would a t t e m p t t o use f o r c e t o e f f e c t a r e s o l u t i o n . The f a i l u r e t o res p o n d t o such outward m a n i f e s t a t i o n s by u n d e r t a k i n g e f f e c t i v e d e f e n s i v e countermeasures i s n o t u n p r e c e d e n t e d : w a r n i n g i n d i c a t o r s o f l i k e l y enemy a g g r e s s i o n were a l s o a v a i l a b l e t o American and S o v i e t l e a d e r s on t h e eve o f t h e P e a r l H a r b or d i s a s t e r and t h e l a u n c h i n g o f O p e r a t i o n B a r b a r o s s a . By and l a r g e , i t i s s a f e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t , g i v e n t h e l a c k o f d e f e n s i v e p r e p a r a t i o n underway i n K h u z e s t a n i n September o f 1980, I r a n i a n d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s had f a i l e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e d a t e , hour, and l o c a t i o n o f t h e 216 p l a n n e d I r a q i a t t a c k . A g a i n , t h e I r a n i a n e l i t e ' s s h o r t c o m i n g s on t h i s s c o r e somewhat r e f l e c t e d t h e m i s f o r t u n e o f o t h e r r egimes i n t h e p a s t . F o r example, i r r e s p e c t i v e o f a g e n e r a l c o g n i z a n c e w i t h i n t h e American i n t e l l i g e n c e community t h a t t h e Japanese would mount an a t t a c k i n December o f 1941, no s i n g l e a n a l y s t e x p r e s s e d a b e l i e f t h a t an a t t a c k d i r e c t e d a t P e a r l Harbor would be l a u n c h e d on a Sunday morning. O v e r a l l , such h i s t o r i c a l a n a l o g i e s d e m o n s t r a t e c o m m o n a l i t i e s r e g a r d i n g e l i t e f a i l u r e s t o o b t a i n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g . P r o c e e d i n g from t h e s e s h a r e d e x p e r i e n c e s , t h e paramountcy o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n between e f f e c t i v e , t i m e l y i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g and a n a l y s i s and t h e w a r d i n g o f f o f s u r p r i s e a t t a c k s becomes r e a d i l y a p p a r e n t . W i t h f u r t h e r r e g a r d t o i n t e l l i g e n c e p r o b l e m s , t h i s s t u d y e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l d i v i s i o n s can a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o n t r i b u t e t o f a i l u r e s t o o b t a i n s t r a t e g i c w a r n i n g o f a p l a n n e d a t t a c k . S i m p l y p u t , power s t r u g g l e s among p o l i t i c a l e l i t e s d i m i n i s h t h e l e v e l o f a t t e n t i o n a c c o r d e d t o p o t e n t i a l t h r e a t s , t h e r e b y g r a n t i n g an a d v e r s a r y a g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t y t o r e a l i z e s t r a t e g i c s u r p r i s e . The l o g i c u n d e r l y i n g t h i s p r e m i s e r e s t s upon t h e b a s i c c o n c l u s i o n t h a t a d i v i d e d house i s more e a s i l y conquered t h a n a u n i t e d house. Through an i n - d e p t h e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e numerous p o l i t i c a l d i v i s i o n s t h a t o b t a i n e d i n r e v o l u t i o n a r y I r a n , t h e 217 c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h i s c o n d i t i o n t o t h e f a i l u r e o f Teheran t o f o r e s e e t h e l o o m i n g I r a q i i n c u r s i o n was e s t a b l i s h e d . The most d i s c e r n i b l e i m p r e s s i o n drawn from t h i s e x a m i n a t i o n i s t h a t t h e v y i n g f o r supremacy between t h e de j u r e , s e c u l a r e l i t e and t h e c l e r i c a l e l i t e — w h i c h w i e l d e d c o n s i d e r a b l e de f a c t o p o w e r — r e s u l t e d i n an a t t e n d a n t breakdown o f c o o p e r a t i o n i n t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e p r o c e s s . The more p o w e r f u l c l e r i c s , l a r g e l y due t o t h e i r d i s d a i n and m i s t r u s t o f t h e s e c u l a r i s t s , a t t a c h e d l i t t l e i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e e s t i m a t e s t h a t