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Political bargaining and the Punjab crisis : the Punjab Accord of 1985 Rodríguez, Alvaro Joseph 1988

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POLITICAL BARGAINING AND THE PUNJAB THE PUNJAB ACCORD OF 1985 CRISIS: By ALVARO JOSEPH RODRIGUEZ B.A., The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o lumbia, 1987 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Department of P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e ) We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September 1988 ® A l v a r o Joseph R o d r i g u e z 1988 In p resen t ing th is thesis in partial f u l f i lmen t o f t he r e q u i r e m e n t s fo r an advanced d e g r e e at t h e Univers i ty o f British C o l u m b i a , I agree tha t t h e Library shall make it f reely available f o r re ference and s tudy . I fu r ther agree tha t pe rmiss ion f o r ex tens ive c o p y i n g o f th is thesis f o r scholar ly pu rposes may b e g ran ted by the head o f m y d e p a r t m e n t o r by his o r her representat ives. It is u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r pub l i ca t i on o f th is thesis f o r f inancial gain shall n o t b e a l l o w e d w i t h o u t m y w r i t t e n permiss ion . D e p a r t m e n t The Univers i ty o f Brit ish C o l u m b i a Vancouver , Canada DE-6 (2/88) t h o s e who dared ABSTRACT S i n c e the e a r l y 1980's, the Punjab s t a t e of I n d i a has been i n t u r m o i l as a r e s u l t of a s e p a r a t i s t movement t h a t d e v e l o p e d among elements of the S i k h community. P o l i t i c a l t e n s i o n s not o n l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the Punjab and New D e l h i / but a l s o between S i k h s and Hindus and among d i f f e r e n t segments w i t h i n the S i k h community i t s e l f . The most i m p o r t a n t attempt t o end t h e c o n f l i c t i n the s t a t e has been the R a j i v Gandhi-Sant Longowal Acc o r d s i g n e d on J u l y 24, 1985. However, the Acco r d f a i l e d and by mid-1987 the Punjab was once a g a i n r a c k e d by p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . T h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s on the ev e n t s t h a t l e d t o the s i g n i n g of t h e Ac c o r d and the f o r c e s t h a t caused i t s demise. B a r g a i n i n g t h e o r y p r o v i d e s the g e n e r a l t h e o r e t i c a l framework a g a i n s t which the d a t a a r e a n a l y z e d . T h i s t h e s i s h i g h l i g h t s the f a c t t h a t p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n s i n T h i r d World w e a k l y - i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s a r e o f t e n the r e s u l t of p a r t i c u l a r c o n f i g u r a t i o n s of p o l i t i c a l power which a r e s h o r t -l i v e d . The c o r o l l a r y of t h i s i s t h a t once the c o n f i g u r a t i o n of p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s changes, the chances of s u c c e s s f o r the p r e v i o u s l y reached p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n a r e weakened. I n the p a r t i c u l a r case of the Punjab A c c o r d , t h e r e was a change, b e g i n n i n g i n l a t e 1985, i n the r e l a t i v e p o l i t i c a l power of the p a r t i c i p a n t s in. the b a r g a i n . A l s o , the terms of the b a r g a i n e d A c c o r d unleashed f o r c e s on both s i d e s which undermined i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . T h i r d World l e a d e r s s h o u l d draw two major l e s s o n s from t h i s . F i r s t , t h e y s h o u l d be c a r e f u l not t o have ex a g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r power s i n c e t h i s may be c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e i n the f u t u r e i f they cannot d e l i v e r what they have promised. Second, these l e a d e r s should attempt to c o n s u l t a l l i n t e r e s t s with a stake i n the bargained settlement as a way to prevent o p p o s i t i o n to i t . i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page A b s t r a c t i i Tab l e of C o n t e n t s • i v L i s t of Maps v Acknowledgements v i Chapter I : Anatomy of an A c c o r d 1 The A c c o r d 2 The S i k h s 6 G e n e s i s of S i k h S e p a r a t i s m 11 B a r g a i n i n g Theory 15 I n f o r m a t i o n I n t e r p r e t a t i o n 20 D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g 22 S t r a t e g y S e a r c h 26 Chapter I Notes 31 Chapter I I : The A c c o r d t o End D i s c o r d 33 S e p a r a t i s m and Communal V i o l e n c e i n Punjab 33 An A c c o r d a t L a s t 37 F i n a l Remarks 55 Chapter I I Notes ... 57 Chapter I I I : The Resurgence of D i s c o r d 58 From A c c o r d t o D i s c o r d 59 F i n a l Remarks 78 Chapter I I I Notes 81 Chapter IV: C o n c l u s i o n 82 B i b l i o g r a p h y 89 i v LIST OP MAPS Page Map 1 I n d i a . P o l i t i c a l D i v i s i o n s 8 Map 2 L i n g u i s t i c D i v i s i o n s of Punjab i n 1966 9 Map 3 Punjab and Haryana Today 10 v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT T h i s t h e s i s i s the c u l m i n a t i o n of f i v e years of study a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia t h a t would not have been p o s s i b l e without the help of numerous i n d i v i d u a l s . I am g r a t e f u l to my parents who supported me i n my d e c i s i o n to leave C h i l e c l o s e to s i x years ago, knowing t h a t I would, or c o u l d , never go back. In a d d i t i o n , I owe many thanks to a l l my f r i e n d s . My achievements owe much to t h e i r acceptance and t o l e r a n c e . My g r a t i t u d e a l s o goes to P r o f e s s o r John R. Wood f o r h i s encouragement i n the l a s t few y e a r s . For h i s pat i e n c e and d e d i c a t i o n I am much indebted. As w e l l , I would l i k e to thank P r o f e s s o r Diane K. Mauzy f o r her help and support when I seemed to lack d i r e c t i o n . To P r o f e s s o r H a r j o t S. Oberoi I am g r a t e f u l f o r an uncanny a b i l i t y to open new f i e l d s of i n t e r e s t f o r me i n the realm of Sikhism. A l l three I must a l s o thank f o r t h e i r h elp i n the quick completion of t h i s t h e s i s . v i CHAPTER I: ANATOMY OP AN ACCORD August and September 1985. Punjab, I n d i a . The a i r i s f u l l of hope; the c i t i e s p e a c e f u l ; t he f i e l d s c o l o u r e d by d i f f e r e n t c r o p s s y m b o l i z i n g a new b e g i n n i n g . I t was i n t h i s o p t i m i s t i c s e t t i n g t h a t a Memorandum of S e t t l e m e n t was s i g n e d by Harchand S. Longowal, l e a d e r of the A k a l i D a l p a r t y , and R a j i v Gandhi, prime m i n i s t e r of I n d i a , on J u l y 24, 1985. T h e i r A c c o r d was an att e m p t t o end the t e r r o r i s m and p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t which had be s e t the Punjab f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s . The Punjab had been i n t u r m o i l as a r e s u l t of a s e p a r a t i s t movement t h a t had de v e l o p e d i n the e a r l y 1980*s among elements of the S i k h community, t h e b i g g e s t e t h n i c group of the s t a t e . T h e i r d e s i r e f o r s e p a r a t i s m was s t r e n g t h e n e d as a r e s u l t of New D e l h i ' s a p p a r e n t i n t r a n s i g e n c e r e g a r d i n g a number of p o l i t i c a l , economic, and r e l i g i o u s g r i e v a n c e s of the S i k h s . The movement had a l s o been made i n c r e a s i n g l y v i o l e n t as a r e s u l t of the p r e a c h i n g s of Sant J a r n a i l S i n g h B h i n d r a n w a l e , a S i k h r e l i g i o u s l e a d e r who imbued the movement w i t h f u n d a m e n t a l i s t o v e r t o n e s . Moreover, i t was e x a c e r b a t e d by the f a c t i o n a l d i s p u t e s and e l e c t o r a l m a c h i n a t i o n s of Punjab's major p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s . However, d u r i n g August and September, a l l t h i s seemed f o r g o t t e n and the two major e t h n i c groups of the s t a t e , the Hindus and the S i k h s , appeared t o be d e v e l o p i n g a common P u n j a b i o u t l o o k . The f e e l i n g of harmony was r e f l e c t e d i n the e l e c t i o n e e r i n g f o r the S t a t e Assembly and n a t i o n a l P a r l i a m e n t . The r e s t o r a t i o n of the d e m o c r a t i c p r o c e s s was s i g n i f i c a n t as Punjab had been under New D e l h i ' s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s i n c e l a t e 1983. 1 A p r i l and May 1987. The hope i s gone, the c i t i e s a r e havens f o r t e r r o r i s m , and t h e parched s o i l due t o t h e f a i l u r e of the monsoon s y m b o l i z e s the s t e r i l i t y of the r e c e n t p o l i t i c a l i n i t i a t i v e s . The A c c o r d has not been f u l l y implemented and the f u t u r e l o o k s b l e a k . The document p r o m i s i n g "peace i n our t i m e " i s but one more f a i l e d attempt t o s o l v e t h e Punjab c r i s i s , a c r i s i s t h a t has reached new h e i g h t s i n the l a s t few months. H o s t i l i t y and s u s p i c i o n a r e the norm now. Even the d e m o c r a t i c p r o c e s s i n the Punjab has been h a l t e d due t o i t s " i n e f f i c i e n c y " i n h a n d l i n g the "law and o r d e r " s i t u a t i o n i n the s t a t e . Why? Why the hope i n 1985? Why the d e s p a i r i n 1987? Why was the Punjab A c c o r d viewed so p r o m i s i n g l y ? Was i t doomed t o f a i l r i g h t from the s t a r t ? I f s o , what were the f o r c e s t h a t shaped i t s d r a f t i n g and i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ? These a r e some of the q u e s t i o n s t h i s t h e s i s w i l l a ttempt t o answer. In d o i n g s o , the a n a l y s i s w i l l t a k e us t o the r o o t s of a c o n f l i c t which has l e d t o communal v i o l e n c e u n p a r a l l e l e d s i n c e I n d i a ' s p a r t i t i o n i n 1947. THE ACCORD T h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s on the Memorandum of S e t t l e m e n t s i g n e d between R a j i v Gandhi, Prime M i n i s t e r of I n d i a , and Sant Harchand S i n g h Longowal, p r e s i d e n t of the S h i r o m a n i A k a l i D a l ( L ) , a p r e p o n d e r a n t l y S i k h p a r t y , on J u l y 24, 1985. I t examines the e v e n t s and f o r c e s t h a t l e d t o i t ; the shape the A c c o r d t o o k ; and the developments t h a t l e d t o i t s demise. Of c r i t i c a l importance i s t o d e t e r m i n e why the b a r g a i n t h a t took p l a c e between t h e s e two p o l i t i c i a n s was p o s s i b l e then and not a t any o t h e r t i m e . The 2 p e r c e p t i o n s and a t t i t u d e s of both l e a d e r s a r e e x p l o r e d and the n a t u r e of the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g u n i t s t h a t s u p p o r t e d the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s i s examined. F u r t h e r m o r e , the o v e r a l l s t r a t e g y of the 1 two men i n t r y i n g t o r e a c h t h e i r b a r g a i n i n g g o a l s i s examined. The t h e s i s f o c u s e s on b a r g a i n i n g t h e o r y f o r two r e a s o n s . F i r s t , the b a r g a i n i n g concept p r o v i d e s a broad but p r a c t i c a l t o o l w i t h which t o g i v e coherence t o the d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l phenomena t h a t p l a y a r o l e i n b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t s . B a r g a i n i n g t h e o r y i s c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o t h e r p o l i t i c a l t h e o r i e s , such as those f o c u s i n g on f a c t i o n a l i s m , c o a l i t i o n - b u i l d i n g , and e l i t e accommodation. Second, b a r g a i n i n g t h e o r y i s c r i t i c a l i n e x p l a i n i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the Punjab A c c o r d i t s e l f and the o p p o s i t i o n f o r c e s i t u n l e a s h e d . In o t h e r words, t h i s t h e o r y i s i n d i s p e n s a b l e i n the e x p l a n a t i o n of t h e e v e n t s t h a t l e d t o the demise of the A c c o r d . The A c c o r d , c o n s i s t i n g of e l e v e n p a r a g r a p h s , promised t o put an end t o a l l major g r i e v a n c e s of the S i k h s . These i n c l u d e d the t r a n s f e r of the c i t y of C handigarh t o P u n j a b , the r e f e r r a l of the A k a l i D a i ' s major s e p a r a t i s t m a n i f e s t o t o a commission l o o k i n g i n t o c e n t e r - s t a t e r e l a t i o n s , and the p r o m o t i o n of the P u n j a b i language. The S i k h s ' major r e l i g i o u s demand was a l s o g r a n t e d as New D e l h i a s s u r e d the A k a l i Dal t h a t a l l S i k h temples i n I n d i a would be brought under the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the S h i r o m a n i Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC). High l e v e l s of S i k h r e c r u i t m e n t i n t o the army and a b e t t e r a l l o c a t i o n of r i v e r waters f o r the Punjab were a l s o guaranteed by New D e l h i , thus s e t t l i n g the S i k h ' s economic demands. A l s o i n c l u d e d i n the A c c o r d were f i v e paragraphs d e a l i n g w i t h g r i e v a n c e s t h a t developed out of the 3 s e p a r a t i s t movement and t h e subsequent government r e a c t i o n s t o i t . These c l a u s e s r e l a t e d t o the p r o t e c t i o n of m i n o r i t i e s , compensation f o r v i c t i m s of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of S i k h army d e s e r t e r s , w i t h d r a w a l of s p e c i a l c o u r t s from the Punjab, and g r e a t e r scope f o r the j u d i c i a l e n q u i r y l o o k i n g i n t o a n t i - S i k h r i o t s i n New D e l h i . In e f f e c t , New D e l h i was t r y i n g t o accommodate S i k h g r i e v a n c e s i n orde r t o make the community r e g a i n c o n f i d e n c e i n I n d i a ' s p o l i t i c a l system. The Punjab A c c o r d i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t f o r c o m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s . In the f i r s t p l a c e , i f p o l i t i c s can be i n t e r p r e t e d as the a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n of v a l u e s , the A c c o r d of J u l y 1985 i s an example of a p a r t i c u l a r k i n d of a l l o c a t i o n ; one which t a k e s p l a c e t h r o u g h a b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s . I t p r o v i d e s c l u e s as t o how b a r g a i n i n g i s done - or f a i l s - i n T h i r d World m u l t i n a t i o n a l s t a t e s . S e c o n d l y , t h e A c c o r d i s i n t e r e s t i n g because i t p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t s i n t o the p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s t h a t shape a b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s , b o t h d u r i n g t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s t a g e and the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e . A b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the n a t u r e of b a r g a i n i n g i n the T h i r d World w i l l be reached i f we can de t e r m i n e whether the f o r c e s a r e the same d u r i n g each s t a g e or whether the b a r g a i n i t s e l f a c t i v a t e s new p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s . T h e r e f o r e , both the r e a c h i n g of the A c c o r d and i t s demise a r e i l l u m i n a t i n g f o r s t u d e n t s of c o m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s . One l a s t major r e a s o n f o r the importance of the Acc o r d t o co m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s has t o do w i t h the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the b a r g a i n s t r u c k on J u l y 24, 1985. I f the p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n changed t o such an e x t e n t i n 1986 and 1987 t h a t i t made the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the A c c o r d d i f f i c u l t , t h e n t h e r e may be a 4 c o r r e l a t i o n between the time span of a b a r g a i n ' s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and i t s s u c c e s s i n T h i r d World p o l i t i c s . T h i r d World governments, b e i n g weakly i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d , a r e more e a s i l y s u s c e p t i b l e t o p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e s from d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s of the p o p u l a t i o n . In consequence, the s u c c e s s of a b a r g a i n may o n l y be guaranteed by q u i c k i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . T h i s ensures t h a t o p p o s i t i o n f o r c e s w i l l be p r e s e n t e d w i t h a f a i t a c c o m p l i w h i c h , by d e f i n i t i o n , i s h a r d e r t o d i s r u p t than a b a r g a i n i n v o l v i n g a time s c h e d u l e w r i t t e n on a p i e c e of paper. The importance of u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h i s A c c o r d f o r p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s s t u d y i n g I n d i a i n g e n e r a l and Punjab i n p a r t i c u l a r cannot be u n d e r e s t i m a t e d . F i r s t , i t r e p r e s e n t s an i n t e r e s t i n g case s t u d y of a b a r g a i n a r r a n g e d between the c e n t r a l government, r u l e d by the I n d i a n N a t i o n a l Congress, and a r e g i o n a l p o l i t i c a l p a r t y , the A k a l i D a l , i n o r d e r t o s o l v e a c r i s i s i n the I n d i a n f e d e r a t i o n . I t thus r e p r e s e n t s a t a c i t a c c e p t a n c e of the r i g h t of r e g i o n a l p a r t i e s t o speak f o r t h e i r s t a t e s when d e a l i n g w i t h the c e n t e r . T h i s seems t o c o n f i r m what P a u l B r a s s has d e s c r i b e d as t e n d e n c i e s toward r e g i o n a l i s m , p l u r a l i s m , and d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n i n I n d i a ( B r a s s , 1982). Thus, a n a l y z i n g the Acc o r d p r o v i d e s i m p o r t a n t i n s i g h t s i n t o the p o l i t i c a l dynamics t h a t shape the I n d i a n p o l i t i c a l system both a t the s t a t e l e v e l and a t the n a t i o n a l l e v e l . U n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e s e p o l i t i c a l dynamics may l e a d t o b e t t e r p r e d i c t i o n s as t o when such b a r g a i n s can be c a r r i e d o u t . As w e l l , more a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s w i l l be a b l e t o be made w i t h r e s p e c t t o the c o n t e n t of p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n s t h a t New D e l h i i s w i l l i n g t o s t r i k e w i t h r e g i o n a l p a r t i e s . 5 Most of the g r i e v a n c e s d e a l t w i t h i n the Ac c o r d were the s u b j e c t of p r e v i o u s n e g o t i a t i o n s between New D e l h i and the A k a l i D a l p a r t y . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s v e r y l i k e l y t h a t i n the f u t u r e t h e Punjab Ac c o r d w i l l be used as a base f o r f u r t h e r n e g o t i a t i o n s and b a r g a i n s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note here t h a t d e s p i t e i t s non-i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , p r o g r e s s was made i n c l a r i f y i n g a r e a s where t r a d e - o f f s might be made. The s u c c e s s of f u t u r e b a r g a i n s may depend on t h i s . L a s t l y , the Acco r d i s s i g n i f i c a n t because i t r e p r e s e n t s the most c o n c r e t e and d e t a i l e d attempt t o s o l v e the Punjab c r i s i s by p o l i t i c a l means. THE SIKHS Punjab i s a s m a l l s t a t e by I n d i a n s t a n d a r d s . I t s 16.7 m i l l i o n people l i v e i n a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50,400 square k i l o m e t e r s 2 ( J e f f r e y , 1986:27). T h i s has not always been the c a s e . B e f o r e independence the Punjab r e g i o n extended a c r o s s v a s t t r a c t s of to d a y ' s P a k i s t a n and a l s o s o u t h - e a s t t o the b o u n d a r i e s of New D e l h i . However, p a r t i t i o n i n 1947 d i v i d e d t h i s a r e a and two-t h i r d s of the Punjab were absorbed i n t o P a k i s t a n . I n 1966, an o t h e r b i f u r c a t i o n of Punjab took p l a c e ; the s t a t e of Haryana was c a r v e d out i n o r d e r t o make Punjab a u n i l i n g u a l P u n j a b i -s p e a k i n g s t a t e . T h i s completed the l i n g u i s t i c r e o r g a n i z a t i o n of I n d i a . D e s p i t e i t s s i z e , Punjab i s s t r a t e g i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t due t o i t s boundary w i t h P a k i s t a n . A l s o i t i s i m p o r t a n t as a r e s u l t of i t s s u p e r i o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n . Punjab produces huge s u r p l u s e s of wheat and r i c e t h a t have h e l p e d make the s t a t e v e r y p r o s p e r o u s : Punjab has I n d i a ' s h i g h e s t per c a p i t a income ( W a l l a c e , 1987:12). 6 The people of Punjab a re e t h n i c a l l y v e r y d i v e r s e . T h i s i s the r e s u l t of the numerous i n v a d i n g groups t h a t s e t t l e d i n t h i s f e r t i l e p l a i n . R e l i g i o n i s the p r i m a r y b a s i s of i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . The S i k h s i n 1971 comprised 60.2% of Punjab's p o p u l a t i o n w h i l e the Hindus c o n s t i t u t e d another 37.6% ( W a l l a c e , 1986:364). However, e q u a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i s the f a c t t h a t , a l t h o u g h the S i k h s c o n s t i t u t e 1.89% of I n d i a ' s t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , over 80% of I n d i a ' s S i k h s a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n Punjab (Kapur, 1985:1). The e f f e c t t h i s has had i s t h a t S i k h s have i d e n t i f i e d Punjab as t h e i r homeland and made t h i s s t a t e a key f o c u s of t h e i r l o y a l t i e s . The S i k h s a r e the f o l l o w e r s of one of the w o r l d ' s newest major r e l i g i o n s . Developed i n the l a t e - f i f t e e n t h and e a r l y s i x t e e n t h c e n t u r i e s as an o f f - s h o o t of the B h a k t i movement, S i k h i s m g r a d u a l l y d e v e l o p e d m a r t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . These were the r e s u l t of p e r s e c u t i o n s by the Mogul r u l e r s of I n d i a and of the p r e f e r e n c e g i v e n t o the S i k h s i n the B r i t i s h - I n d i a n army d u r i n g the c o l o n i a l e r a . Another i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t of the S i k h r e l i g i o n has been i t s t endency t o r e v e r t back i n t o Hinduism. For t h i s r e a s o n , " f u n d a m e n t a l i s t " movements w i t h i n S i k h i s m have been common s i n c e the n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y . A major p o l i t i c a l development i n S i k h h i s t o r y was the A k a l i movement of 1920-25. D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , the A k a l i D a l (army of the f a i t h f u l ) was o r g a n i z e d t o ta k e over S i k h temples (Gurdwaras). These t e m p l e s , up t o t h e n , had been c o n t r o l l e d by H i n d u i z e d S i k h s who, q u i t e o f t e n , d e s e c r a t e d the s h r i n e s . In 1925, a l l Gurdwaras of Punjab came under the c o n t r o l of the 3 S h i r o m a n i Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC) , thus h e r a l d i n g a new e r a f o r the S i k h s . Not o n l y had t h e y g a i n e d c o n t r o l of t h e i r 7 s JAMMU & KASHMIR / ^,3 . HIMACHAL Simla ^< A PRADESH ^HARYANA \ GUJARAT , /+DELHI \, Jaipur ^ U T T A R P R A D E S H RAJASTHAN * V 7 • • ^ SIKKIM • Patna BIHAR < ^ -^5>>*-'V^ " _ ^ s p u r ,/.NAGALANO A R U N A C H A l P R A D E S H ^ - . . ~ BHUTAN . v ^ . . s y t o h i m a / . Imphal K ^ M E G H A L A Y A 7 / " . _ __^WEST• Agartala> w» . ; , '^MANIPUR C BENGAL*-. T R I P U R / W l ^ a w l M / Z O R A M O/U DAMAN DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI Kavaratti * LAKSHADWEEP Trivandrum Map 1. I n d i a . P o l i t i c a l D i v i s i o n s . Adapted from. Robin J e f f r e y , What's Happening t o I n d i a ? P u n j a b . E t h n i c C o n f l i c t . Mrs.  Gandhi's Death & the T e s t f o r F e d e r a l i s m (England: The M a c m i l l a n P r e s s , 1985); X V I I I . 8 Chandigarh # Delhi New Delhi H i n d i - s p e a k i n g region Punjabi-speaking region B i l i n g u a l Map 2. L i n g u i s t i c D i v i s i o n s o f Punjab i n 1966. Adapted from, B a l d e v R. Nayar, M i n o r i t y P o l i t i c s i n the Punjab (New J e r s e y : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . 1966): XIV. 9 Map 3. Punjab and Haryana Today. Adapted from. Mark T u l l y and S a t i s h J a cob. A m r i t s a r : Mrs. Gandhi's L a s t B a t t l e (London: Pan Books L t d . . 1985): XVI. 10 temples but the A k a l i D a l e v e n t u a l l y became the p r e m i e r S i k h p o l i t i c a l p a r t y . The p a r t i t i o n of I n d i a i n 1947 was a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t as the exodus of S i k h s from the newly-formed P a k i s t a n meant t h a t the community had become l a r g e l y c o n c e n t r a t e d i n the I n d i a n P u n j a b . A l t h o u g h s t i l l a m i n o r i t y r e l a t i v e t o Hindus, the S i k h s were now p o i s e d t o demand a m a j o r i t y - S i k h s t a t e . GENESIS OF SIKH SEPARATISM I t i s t o the f i r s t t w e nty y e a r s of I n d i a ' s independence t h a t the o r i g i n s of S i k h s e p a r a t i s m can be t r a c e d . In the 1950's, I n d i a ' s s t a t e b o u n d a r i e s were r e o r g a n i z e d a c c o r d i n g t o l i n g u i s t i c c r i t e r i a , but Punjab was l e f t untouched. In e f f e c t , Punjab remained a b i l i n g u a l s t a t e w i t h b oth H i n d i and P u n j a b i h a v i n g o f f i c i a l s t a t u s . Between 1947 and 1966 S i k h s c o n s t i t u t e d 33.3% of the p o p u l a t i o n of Punjab compared w i t h 63.7% of Hindus ( W a l l a c e , 1986:364). The S t a t e s R e o r g a n i z a t i o n Commission argued t h a t H i n d i and P u n j a b i were m u t u a l l y u n d e r s t a n d a b l e and t h a t the e x i s t i n g Punjab s t a t e was a s i n g l e economic u n i t t h a t s h o u l d not be d i v i d e d (Report of the S t a t e s R e o r g a n i z a t i o n Commission, 1955:141-53). The A k a l i Dal opposed the v e r d i c t and launched an a g i t a t i o n i n o r d e r t o f o r c e the government t o concede P u n j a b i Suba, a P u n j a b i - s p e a k i n g s t a t e . A f t e r y e a r s of a g i t a t i o n , P u n j a b i Suba was f o r m a l l y conceded i n 1966. The importance of the movement f o r S i k h p o l i t i c s was t h r e e f o l d . F i r s t , i t meant t h a t the new Punjab had a m a j o r i t y of S i k h s : S i k h s were 60% of the p o p u l a t i o n by 1971, w h i l e Hindus accounted f o r most of the r e m a i n i n g 40% ( W a l l a c e , 1986:364). In f a c t , t h i s was the f i r s t t ime i n S i k h h i s t o r y t h a t S i k h s formed a m a j o r i t y i n a major p o l i t i c o - a d m i n i s t r a t i v e u n i t . Second, the achievement of P u n j a b i Suba was l a r g e l y the s u c c e s s of Sant F a t e h S i n g h , a S i k h from the r u r a l a r e a s . As a r e s u l t , a f t e r 1966, the A k a l i Dal became a r u r a l - b a s e d mass p a r t y whose p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t i v e s were t i e d t o a g r i c u l t u r a l i n t e r e s t s . T h i r d , the S i k h s l e a r n e d t h a t t h r o u g h communal a g i t a t i o n , New D e l h i c o u l d be f o r c e d t o g r a n t c o n c e s s i o n s . D e s p i t e t h i s major v i c t o r y f o r the S i k h community, many problems sprang out of the b i f u r c a t i o n of the e r s t w h i l e Punjab i n t o the new s t a t e s of Haryana, the p r e d o m i n a n t l y Hindu and H i n d i - s p e a k i n g t e r r i t o r y c a r v e d out of i t , and Punjab. The water r e s o u r c e s of Punjab's t h r e e main r i v e r s were l e f t t o the c e n t r a l 4 government t o d i s t r i b u t e . T h i s meant t h a t Punjab c o u l d not u t i l i z e t h i s water as i t p l e a s e d . A l s o , Chandigarh was made a Union T e r r i t o r y and was d e c l a r e d the c a p i t a l c i t y of both Haryana and Punjab d e s p i t e Punjab's c l a i m s t h a t i t s h o u l d be p a r t of t h a t s t a t e and the c a p i t a l of i t o n l y . L a s t l y , the b o u n d a r i e s were not drawn t o the s a t i s f a c t i o n of e i t h e r of the two s t a t e s . These i s s u e s l a t e r became the key demands i n the Anandpur Sa h i b R e s o l u t i o n of 1973. The l a t e 1960's were a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t due t o economic changes i n the s t a t e . New a g r i c u l t u r a l t e c h n o l o g y was i n t r o d u c e d i and d e v e l o p e d i n t o what i s now c a l l e d the Green R e v o l u t i o n . ' A l t h o u g h c r o p y i e l d s i n c r e a s e d g r e a t l y , t h e y l e d t o a w i d e n i n g gap between r i c h and poor f a r m e r s . Many poor farmers m i g r a t e d t o the c i t i e s and found t h a t Hindus dominated them ( W a l l a c e , 1987:16-17). P o l i t i c a l l y , the Green R e v o l u t i o n l e d t o p r e s s u r e s f o r governmental d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n . S i n c e a g r i c u l t u r a l r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e h i g h l y v a r i a b l e and r e g i o n a l or l o c a l i n n a t u r e , and s i n c e r u r a l power s t r u c t u r e s are a l s o by d e f i n i t i o n l o c a l or r e g i o n a l , the p r e s s u r e f o r a s h i f t i n economic p o l i c y o r i e n t a t i o n towards a g r i c u l t u r e a l s o i m p l i e d p r e s s u r e f o r d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n i n b o th the economy and p o l i t i c s ( B r a s s , 1982:257). In a d d i t i o n , economic p r o s p e r i t y l e d t o h e i g h t e n e d e x p e c t a t i o n s and f e e l i n g s of r e l a t i v e d e p r i v a t i o n as m e c h a n i z a t i o n i n the r u r a l a r e a s 6 c o n t r i b u t e d t o S i k h y o uth unemployment. In the r e a l m of p o l i t i c s , major changes were t a k i n g p l a c e t h r o u g h o u t I n d i a i n the l a t e 1960's. Up t o t h e n , the Congress p a r t y had r u l e d both a t the n a t i o n a l and s t a t e l e v e l s , but i n 1967/ s e v e r a l r e g i o n a l p a r t i e s g a i n e d power i n the s t a t e s . A l s o , a f t e r 1966, the new Prime M i n i s t e r of I n d i a , I n d i r a Gandhi, moved t o a c q u i r e a f o o t - h o l d i n s t a t e p o l i t i c s . T h i s was f u r t h e r a c c e n t u a t e d a f t e r the Congress s p l i t i n 1969 (Dua, 1979:19); c o n t r o l of the s t a t e s became c r u c i a l as I n d i r a r e a l i z e d t h a t i n o r d e r t o s u r v i v e a t the c e n t e r , she needed t o c o n t r o l them (Wood, 1985:9). In the P u n j a b , I n d i r a promoted f a c t i o n a l i s m i n and d e f e c t i o n s from the A k a l i Dal ( B r a s s , 1986:17). T h i s was done by g r a n t i n g c o n c e s s i o n s t o one group a t the expense of a n o t h e r and by p r o m i s i n g i m p o r t a n t p o l i t i c a l o f f i c e s t o d e f e c t o r s . Not o n l y t h a t , she a l s o sought t o embarrass the moderate A k a l i l e a d e r s h i p i n o r d e r t o d e c r e a s e i t s power and weaken i t s p o s i t i o n as a s t r o n g c o m p e t i t o r t o Congress i n P u n j a b i p o l i t i c s ( B r a s s , 1986:62). The A k a l i s r e a c t e d t o t h e s e growing encroachments of the c e n t r a l government by w r i t i n g up a l i s t of demands which came t o be known as the Anandpur S a h i b R e s o l u t i o n of 1973. O r i g i n a l l y i t 13 asked f o r New D e l h i ' s j u r i s d i c t i o n t o be reduced t o Defence, F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , P o s t and T e l e g r a p h s , C u r r e n c y and R a i l w a y s . In 19 78, however, i t was amended and the above c l a u s e was d e l e t e d . The c l a u s e s of the 1978 copy of the Anandpur Sahib R e s o l u t i o n d e a l t m a i n l y w i t h p o l i t i c a l , economic, and r e l i g i o u s g r i e v a n c e s and t h e y became the main o b j e c t i v e s f o r which the A k a l i D al p a r t y worked. They asked f o r the g r a n t i n g of C h a n d i g a r h t o Punjab, f o r a more pro-Punjab d i s t r i b u t i o n of water r e s o u r c e s , and f o r more r e c r u i t m e n t of S i k h s i n t o the armed f o r c e s (White Paper on the  Punjab A g i t a t i o n , 1984:67-90). The armed f o r c e s had always been the f o c u s of S i k h i n t e r e s t s , but the m e c h a n i z a t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r e had i n c r e a s e d even f u r t h e r t h e i r importance f o r S i k h employment. A l s o s i g n i f i c a n t was the c a l l f o r an A l l - I n d i a Gurdwara A c t . The e x i s t i n g Gurdwara A c t o n l y i n c o r p o r a t e d S i k h temples i n Punjab and the body i n charge of r u n n i n g t h e s e t e m p l e s , the S h i r o m a n i Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC), wanted t o assume c o n t r o l of S i k h temples t h r o u g h o u t I n d i a . ^ The R e s o l u t i o n o n l y g a i n e d r e l e v a n c e i n the 1980's however, when i t became the f o c u s of an o u t b i d d i n g p r o c e s s between A k a l i f a c t i o n s . Growing i n t e r f e r e n c e i n s t a t e s ' a f f a i r s and the consequent c o n f l i c t w i t h s t a t e s ' l e a d e r s reached t h e i r peak i n 1975. By t h a t t i m e , I n d i r a Gandhi, unable t o c o n t r o l developments i n I n d i a had d e c l a r e d an "Emergency" which was t o l a s t u n t i l 1977. The Emergency was n o t o r i o u s f o r the j a i l i n g of d i s s e n t e r s and p r e s s c e n s o r s h i p . Of s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r S i k h p o l i t i c s was the f a c t t h a t d u r i n g t h a t t i m e , A k a l i d e m o n s t r a t o r s r e g u l a r l y d e f i e d the bans; more th a n 40,000 are s a i d t o have been i m p r i s o n e d . T h i s would make the A k a l i p r o t e s t , which o p e r a t e d from the gurdwaras, the most s u s t a i n e d o p p o s i t i o n t o the "Emergency" o f f e r e d anywhere i n I n d i a ( J e f f r e y , 1986:116). F o l l o w i n g the e l e c t i o n s of 1977, the J a n a t a P a r t y formed a government, but i t was too e m b r o i l e d i n i t s own f a c t i o n a l i s m i n New D e l h i and the s t a t e s remained r e l a t i v e l y f r e e of the c e n t r a l government's i n t e r f e r e n c e (Wood, 1984:11). S i k h demands were moderated a t t h i s time because the A k a l i D a l formed p a r t of the J a n a t a c o a l i t i o n i n New D e l h i . A l s o , the A k a l i D a l r u l e d the Punjab from 1977 t o 1980, w i t h the J a n a t a p a r t y as a c o a l i t i o n member i n the s t a t e Assembly f o r much of the p e r i o d . In e f f e c t , i t was not u n t i l I n d i r a ' s r e t u r n t o power i n 1980 t h a t c e n t e r - s t a t e t e n s i o n s began t o be e x a c e r b a t e d once a g a i n , l e a d i n g t o a v i o l e n t s e p a r a t i s t movement i n the Punjab and a d e s p e r a t e s e a r c h f o r peace by moderates t h a t e v e n t u a l l y l e d t o the s i g n i n g of the Punjab A c c o r d . T h e r e f o r e , the p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n s of 1985 can o n l y be u n d e r s t o o d i f t h e y a r e seen i n r e l a t i o n t o e v e n t s i n Punjab a f t e r Mrs. Gandhi's r e t u r n t o power. BARGAINING THEORY B a r g a i n i n g i s not o n l y used i n p o l i t i c s ; i t i s an e s s e n t i a l p a r t of e veryday l i f e f o r most p e o p l e . Such i s s u e s as the d e c i s i o n of who w i l l wash the d i s h e s a f t e r d i n n e r or how t o d i v i d e the p r o f i t s of an i nvestment e q u i t a b l y between a l l the c o n t r i b u t o r s t o an e n t e r p r i s e are o t h e r i n s t a n c e s of b a r g a i n i n g . More p o l i t i c a l l y s a l i e n t examples would i n c l u d e t r a d e n e g o t i a t i o n s between A f r i c a and the European Community, the Law of the Sea C o n v e n t i o n s , or c e n t e r - s t a t e r e l a t i o n s i n f e d e r a l systems. In g e n e r a l , i t can be s t a t e d t h a t b a r g a i n i n g i s one of the most b a s i c d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s i n the w o r l d . what makes b a r g a i n i n g r e l e v a n t t o our s t u d y i s t h a t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t h r o u g h b a r g a i n i n g i s an i n t e g r a l p a r t of I n d i a ' s c u l t u r a l baggage. B a r g a i n i n g can be seen a t work most c l e a r l y i n the b a z a a r s where p e d d l e r s t r y t o s e l l t h e i r goods. The p r i c e s quoted i n i t i a l l y by p o t e n t i a l buyers or s e l l e r s a r e not what a r e e x p e c t e d , but s i m p l y a bench-mark p r i c e from which the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s b e g i n s . Sometimes the o f f e r s a r e u n r e a s o n a b l e and no d e a l i s s t r u c k . Other t i m e s the "buyer" i s not s e r i o u s and has no i n t e n t i o n of p u r c h a s i n g a n y t h i n g . Of more i n t e r e s t , however, ar e the cases i n which b o t h buyer and s e l l e r attempt t o o b t a i n mutual g a i n s by a p r o c e s s of compromise, t h a t i s , by a d j u s t i n g t h e i r c o n f l i c t i n g s t a n c e s i n o r d e r t o r e a c h an agreement. In p o l i t i c s , such a t t i t u d e s and b e h a v i o u r are s i m i l a r , as we w i l l see below. The i m p l i c a t i o n s of b a r g a i n i n g i n p o l i t i c s a r e c l e a r , e s p e c i a l l y i f we d e f i n e p o l i t i c s as the a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n of s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s . P u b l i c o f f i c i a l s , b e a r i n g the u l t i m a t e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a l l o c a t i n g s o c i e t y ' s goods and s e r v i c e s among the members of the s o c i e t y , must choose and make c o n c e s s i o n s among the competing demands r e a c h i n g them. A l s o , t h e y must attempt t o r e a c h compromises i n a r e a s where mutual g a i n s can be o b t a i n e d by a l l competing groups i f a b a r g a i n i s s t r u c k . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i n cases i n which a l l s t a n d t o l o s e from the f a i l u r e t o r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t . An i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n the a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s i s t h a t , i f most c i t i z e n s get enough of what t h e y need and want t o keep them m i n i m a l l y s a t i s f i e d , even i f t h e s e a r e s y m b o l i c r e s o u r c e s or v a l u e s of l i t t l e c o s t , t h e n t h e y w i l l presumably s u p p o r t the s o c i e t y and uphold the v a l u e s and b e l i e f s t h a t keep i t o p e r a t i n g ( R e i l l y and S i g a l l , 1 9 7 6 : X I I I -XIV) . But, what i s b a r g a i n i n g ? Oran Young d e f i n e s b a r g a i n i n g as a means by which two or more p u r p o s i v e a c t o r s ( h e n c e f o r t h r e f e r r e d , t o as p a r t i c i p a n t s ) a r r i v e a t s p e c i f i c outcomes i n s i t u a t i o n s i n which (1) the c h o i c e s of the p a r t i c i p a n t s w i l l d e termine the a l l o c a t i o n of some v a l u e ( s ) , (2) the outcome f o r each p a r t i c i p a n t i s a f u n c t i o n of the b e h a v i o u r of the o t h e r ( s ) , and (3) the outcome i s a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h n e g o t i a t i o n s between or among the p l a y e r s (1975:5). T h i s d e f i n i t i o n h i g h l i g h t s one c r i t i c a l i s s u e : i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . For one t h i n g , e v e r y b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e of p r o c e s s and of outcome. And no r e a l l y s a t i s f a c t o r y agreement can be reached by one of the p a r t i c i p a n t s w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o a ccount the i n t e r e s t s of the o t h e r ( s ) . However, as D a n i e l Druckman a r g u e s , each p a r t i c i p a n t not o n l y has t o take i n t o a ccount the i n t e r e s t s of the o t h e r s d u r i n g the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s , but a l s o the demands of d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s w i t h i n h i s / h e r own p o l i t i c a l u n i t (1978:88). Groups w i t h a s t a k e i n the i s s u e may have t o be t a k e n i n t o a ccount because t h e i r p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e may become c r i t i c a l d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the b a r g a i n . I f t h e y were not c o n s i d e r e d d u r i n g the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s , t h e y may t u r n a g a i n s t the agreement once i t has been r e a c h e d . Otomar B a r t o s p r e s e n t s a n other i n g r e d i e n t of b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s e s . He argues t h a t b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n s o f t e n i n v o l v e d u a l and m o s t l y c o n f l i c t i n g m o t i v a t i o n s : the i n d i v i d u a l i s t ( c o m p e t i t i v e ) d e s i r e t o maximize one's g a i n and the c o l l e c t i v i s t ( c o o p e r a t i v e ) d e s i r e t o r e a c h a f a i r s o l u t i o n (1978:13). I f the 17 dominant v i e w i n both p o l i t i c a l u n i t s d u r i n g the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s i s t h a t a d e a l i s w o r t h w h i l e , an agreement may be r e a c h e d . However, i f d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s become d i s e n c h a n t e d w i t h the d e a l , or o t h e r i n t e r e s t s e x c l u d e d from the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s put a l l t h e i r e f f o r t s i n t o s c u t t l i n g i t , t h e n the d e a l w i l l p r o b a b l y f a l l a p a r t as i t w i l l be hard f o r the a f f e c t e d p a r t i c i p a n t t o d e l i v e r what he/she had p r o m i s e d . T h i s p r o c e s s i s i n t e n s i f i e d i f both p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e s u b j e c t t o " a n t i - a g r e e m e n t " f o r c e s . In our c a s e , " p a r t i c i p a n t s " r e f e r t o the key d e c i s i o n -makers i n v o l v e d i n the b a r g a i n : R a j i v Gandhi and Sant Longowal. " P o l i t i c a l u n i t s " r e f e r t o the c o n s t i t u e n c i e s t h e y r e p r e s e n t ; i n the case of Sant Longowal i t i s the mainstream-moderate A k a l i Dal w h i l e f o r R a j i v Gandhi i t i s b oth the Congress p a r t y and I n d i a i n g e n e r a l due t o h i s p o s i t i o n as prime m i n i s t e r . And i n t e r e s t s r e f e r t o d i f f e r e n t f a c t i o n s , o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s and even s t a t e s which have a s t a k e i n the s e t t l e m e n t of a c o n f l i c t . In our case s t u d y t h e r e are f a c t i o n s w i t h i n the A k a l i D a l , key S i k h a d v i s o r s i n the c e n t r a l government, and the s t a t e of Haryana. In the p a r t i c u l a r case of the c e n t e r - s t a t e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s t h a t d e v e l o p e d over the Punjab c r i s i s , numerous t h e o r e t i c a l problems need t o be d e a l t w i t h i n o r d e r t o f i n d an adequate framework f o r a n a l y s i s . The framework d e v e l o p e d by C h a r l e s L o c k h a r t i n 1979 t o d e a l w i t h b a r g a i n i n g d u r i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l approach t o a n a l y s i s . In what f o l l o w s , h i s framework has been a l t e r e d i n o r d e r t o make i t u s e f u l for. a c e n t e r - s t a t e i n t e r a c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , i n d i v i d u a l components of the framework have been supplemented by 18 c o n t r i b u t i o n s from t h e o r i s t s such as A l l i s o n , George, Snyder, D i e s i n g and N o r d l i n g e r . D e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t many of thes e t h e o r i s t s d e a l w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l c ases of b a r g a i n i n g or d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , i t i s argued here t h a t the i n t e r a c t i o n between the Punjab and New D e l h i can be seen as a p r o d u c t of s i m i l a r f o r c e s and p r e s s u r e s . C h a r l e s L o c k h a r t s t a t e s t h a t t h r e e p r o c e s s e s l i e a t the c e n t e r of b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n s : i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , and s t r a t e g y s e a r c h . I n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n r e f e r s t o the p r o c e s s by which the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n attempt t o d i s c o v e r the n a t u r e of the s i t u a t i o n c o n f r o n t i n g them. At t h i s t i m e , the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n and the d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t groups i n v o l v e d determine t h e i r s t a n c e . D u r i n g the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s the p a r t i c i p a n t s t o the b a r g a i n d e a l w i t h the impact the s i t u a t i o n i s apt t o have on t h e i r p o l i t i c a l u n i t s . R e l e v a n t here a r e the n a t u r e of o b j e c t i v e s and the n a t u r e of the d e c i s i o n u n i t s i n v o l v e d . F i n a l l y , t h e r e i s the s t r a t e g y s e a r c h i n which the i n t e r a c t i o n between the p a r t i c i p a n t s t o the d i s p u t e t a k e s p l a c e and d i f f e r e n t s t a n c e s a r e t a k e n by them i n o r d e r t o r e s o l v e the c o n f l i c t ( L o c k h a r t , 1979:34). D e s p i t e the a p p a r e n t l y c l e a r - c u t s e p a r a t i o n between the" t h r e e p r o c e s s e s , t h i s i s d e c e i v i n g . The b o u n d a r i e s s e p a r a t i n g them a r e q u i t e i m p r e c i s e . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s e p r o c e s s e s a re v e r y i n t e r d e p e n d e n t . At f i r s t , i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e and i s f o l l o w e d by the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g and s t r a t e g y s e a r c h p r o c e s s e s . However, new i n f o r m a t i o n i s b e i n g r e c e i v e d a l l the time and changes i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g and i n s t r a t e g y a r e s u b s e q u e n t l y made. As a r e s u l t , t h i s model i s not meant t o 19 suggest a c h r o n o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s . I t s i m p l y seeks t o d i s s e c t t h r e e major components t h a t p r o v i d e c l u e s as t o how b a r g a i n s a r e s t r u c k . D e s p i t e these c o m p l e x i t i e s and i m p r e c i s i o n s , the model i s s t i l l adequate f o r our i n q u i r y . As L o c k h a r t s a y s , these t o p i c s form the most f r u i t f u l f o c u s of a t t e n t i o n . T h i s c h o i c e i n e v i t a b l y p l a c e s l i m i t s on what w i l l be s t u d i e d and on the n a t u r e of the t h e o r e t i c a l r e s u l t s ... [However,] t h e y h e l p t o e x p l a i n why the p a r t i e s h o l d such d i s p a r a t e views of the c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s , why some s e t t l e m e n t s a r e i n h e r e n t l y u n s t a b l e , why s t r a t e g i e s a r e o f t e n l e s s than o p t i m a l from t h e s t a n d p o i n t of ... s t r a t e g i c i n t e r a c t i o n s , why s t r a t e g i e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y i n f l e x i b l e , why c l e a r - c u t c h o i c e s among s t r a t e g i c o p t i o n s r a r e l y a r i s e , why c e r t a i n compromises a r e p o s s i b l e and o t h e r s a r e not (1979:87). I n f o r m a t i o n I n t e r p r e t a t i o n I n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s c r u c i a l t o b a r g a i n i n g e p i s o d e s . L o c k h a r t s t a t e s t h a t , S i n c e each p a r t y t o a c o n f l i c t r e a c t s not t o the s i t u a t i o n as p e r c e i v e d by the o t h e r but r a t h e r t o the s i t u a t i o n as seen from i t s own p e r s p e c t i v e , the p a r t i e s a r e not r e a c t i n g d i r e c t l y t o each o t h e r . Under these c o n d i t i o n s i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o un d e r s t a n d the p e r s p e c t i v e s g u i d i n g each p a r t y (1979:38). At the most b a s i c l e v e l , t he p r o c e s s of i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s c r i t i c a l when a p o t e n t i a l p a r t i c i p a n t t o a b a r g a i n t r i e s t o det e r m i n e whether he has a c o u n t e r p a r t w i t h whom to d e a l . Sometimes two p o t e n t i a l p a r t i c i p a n t s a l r e a d y e x i s t , as i n superpower summits, but t h i s i s not always the c a s e . O f t e n , i n s i t u a t i o n s where v i o l e n c e has o c c u r r e d , one of the s i d e s may l a c k a s t a b l e and c o h e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p as i t s s e n i o r p o l i t i c i a n s may be e x i l e d or i m p r i s o n e d . Other t i m e s , the p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n on one of the s i d e s i s so f l u i d t h a t none of i t s " l e a d e r s " can depend on the c l e a r s u p p o r t of a m a j o r i t y of the 20 c o n s t i t u e n t s of the p o l i t i c a l u n i t s . Whatever the c a s e , u n t i l each s i d e d e v e l o p s a l e a d e r s h i p t h a t i s p e r c e i v e d by the o t h e r s i d e as s t a b l e and e f f e c t i v e , the c o n t i n u a t i o n of the p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g w i l l be f u t i l e . Once each s i d e has a c o h e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p , two f a c t o r s shape the p r o c e s s of i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . These are the p o l i t i c a l r o l e and the power each one of the p a r t i c i p a n t s p e r c e i v e s h i m s e l f as h a v i n g and i s p e r c e i v e d as h a v i n g . Role i s s i g n i f i c a n t s i n c e , t o a l a r g e degree, i t i n f l u e n c e s the s t a n c e of a p a r t i c i p a n t i n the b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n . In the case of a prime m i n i s t e r , f o r example, the " n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t " d i c t a t e s t h a t he v iew a c e n t e r - s t a t e c r i s i s w i t h a broader p e r s p e c t i v e t h a n a r e g i o n a l l e a d e r who has more p a r t i c u l a r and n a r r o w l y -d e f i n e d i n t e r e s t s . P e r c e p t i o n s of power a r e a l s o i m p o r t a n t i n the p r o c e s s of i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . I f a p a r t i c i p a n t i n the b a r g a i n i n g p e r c e i v e s t h a t he has a l a r g e amount of power, he w i l l a ttempt t o d e a l w i t h a c r i s i s more s i n g l e - h a n d e d l y t h a n i f he p e r c e i v e s h i s s u p p o r t base as weak. As w e l l , he w i l l f e e l t h a t he has enough i n f l u e n c e t o d etermine the c o u r s e of e v e n t s i n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e a d e s i r e d outcome. However, t h i s may be c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e i f he cannot m a i n t a i n the same amount of power u n t i l the c r i s i s i s f u l l y s e t t l e d . E r i c N o r d l i n g e r argues t h a t sometimes p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s are s u b j e c t t o h o s t i l e c r i t i c i s m s and a t t a c k s by s u b o r d i n a t e s who have an i n t e r e s t i n e x a c e r b a t i n g a c o n f l i c t as a way of enhancing t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s ( N o r d l i n g e r , 1972:42). In f a c t , f o r a b a r g a i n t o proceed s u c c e s s f u l l y , i t i s e s s e n t i a l t o have l e a d e r s who are c l e a r l y predominant and who 21 e n j o y e x t e n s i v e independent a u t h o r i t y t o t a k e a c t i o n s and make commitments ( N o r d l i n g e r , 1972:73). Having c o n s i d e r e d how the p a r t i c i p a n t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e o p p o s i t e s i d e and of t h e i r own p o s i t i o n a f f e c t the b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n , one i s s u e remains t o be mentioned; t h i s i s how the b e l i e f system of the p a r t i c i p a n t s a f f e c t s p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g . A l e x a n d e r George p r e s e n t s a c o n c i s e a n a l y s i s of the b e l i e f system of p o l i t i c i a n s and how t h i s a f f e c t s t h e i r b e h a v i o u r d u r i n g c o n f l i c t s . He argues t h a t p o l i t i c i a n s behave a c c o r d i n g t o an o p e r a t i o n a l code. T h i s code c o n s i s t s of both " p h i l o s o p h i c a l " b e l i e f s and " i n s t r u m e n t a l " b e l i e f s . George s t a t e s t h a t the p h i l o s o p h i c a l b e l i e f s r e f e r t o assumptions and premises p o l i t i c i a n s make r e g a r d i n g the fundamental n a t u r e of p o l i t i c s , the n a t u r e of p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t , the r o l e of the i n d i v i d u a l i n h i s t o r y , and so f o r t h . By i n s t r u m e n t a l b e l i e f s he r e f e r s t o the c r i t e r i a by means of which p o l i t i c i a n s choose a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s of a c t i o n (George, 1969:198-99). As w e l l , t h e y d i s p l a y c e r t a i n p s y c h o l o g i c a l t r a i t s t h a t may p r e d i s p o s e them t o e i t h e r c o n f r o n t a t i o n or towards a more a m i c a b l e r e s o l u t i o n of c o n f l i c t . The above, however, i s o n l y r e l e v a n t i n a s i t u a t i o n where the p o l i t i c i a n s have enough power t o d e t e r m i n e the c o u r s e of e v e n t s ; i f t h i s i s not s o , the o p e r a t i o n a l code becomes m e a n i n g l e s s . D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g The second component of L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model i s the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . D e c i s i o n - m a k i n g has two p r i m a r y 22 e l e m e n t s . F i r s t , t h e r e i s the n a t u r e of the o b j e c t i v e s . The p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a b a r g a i n must r e c o n c i l e v a r i o u s , p o s s i b l y c o n f l i c t i n g , o b j e c t i v e s p r e s e n t i n t h e i r camps ( L o c k h a r t , 1979:12). Second, t h e r e i s the n a t u r e of the d i f f e r e n t groups i n v o l v e d . D i f f e r e n t members of each of the p a r t i c i p a n t s ' entourage w i l l r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t i n t e r e s t s , or may even r e p r e s e n t i n s t i t u t i o n s t h a t w i l l implement the b a r g a i n i f an agreement i s reached w i t h the o t h e r p a r t i c i p a n t , and i t i s t h e i r power t h a t d e t e r m i n e s t h e i r i n f l u e n c e i n the d e c i s i o n making ( L o c k h a r t , 1979:62). L o c k h a r t s t a t e s t h a t v a r i o u s a s p e c t s of a c t u a l d e c i s i o n s form a s e t of c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t d e f i n e the b o u n d a r i e s of a s a t i s f a c t o r y s o l u t i o n (1979:61). For example, a p o l i c y d e s i g n e d t o appease one p o l i t i c a l u n i t s h o u l d not be pursued t o the e x t e n t of a l i e n a t i n g a n o t h e r as t h i s would be c o u n t e r - p r o d u c t i v e . In f a c t , s e t t l i n g g r i e v a n c e s may i n v o l v e p o l i t i c a l c o s t s , but these c o s t s s h o u l d be c a l c u l a t e d and kept low by the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n . I f the c o s t i s m i s c a l c u l a t e d or s i m p l y i g n o r e d , t h e n the b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t i s l i k e l y t o encounter s t r o n g o p p o s i t i o n from the a g g r i e v e d p a r t y . I t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t t o c a l c u l a t e the c o s t s of no s e t t l e m e n t . I n the p a r t i c u l a r case of c e n t e r - s t a t e r e l a t i o n s , f o r i n s t a n c e , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o ensure t h a t s e t t l i n g g r i e v a n c e s w i t h one s t a t e does not i n v o l v e j e o p a r d i z i n g the i n t e r e s t s of o t h e r n e i g h b o u r i n g s t a t e s . Whatever the case may be, c o n s t r a i n t s may prove d i f f i c u l t because, on the one hand, a b a r g a i n may not be s t r u c k i f a l l c o n s t r a i n t s are t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t . On the o t h e r hand, however,, i f none a r e , t h i s w i l l remove l e g i t i m a c y from the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s or from the subsequent i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phase. S t a t e s m a n s h i p c o n s i s t s i n w a l k i n g the f i n e l i n e between t h e s e two p o s i t i o n s . Graham A l l i s o n proves h e l p f u l when the i s s u e of group d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i s examined. One of h i s models of d e c i s i o n -making s t r e s s e s the p o i n t t h a t d e c i s i o n s a r e the r e s u l t of c o n f l i c t and compromise among d i f f e r e n t key a d v i s o r s w i t h d i v e r s e i n t e r e s t s and unequal i n f l u e n c e . I n e f f e c t , the r e s u l t s of i n t r a - g r o u p d e c i s i o n s a r e a l s o the outcome of a b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s ( A l l i s o n , 1971:162). The outcome i s det e r m i n e d by the "power" of each one of the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n v o l v e d i n the group. Power i s an e l u s i v e concept t o d e f i n e but i n t h i s t h e s i s i t w i l l be equated w i t h i n f l u e n c e . L o c k h a r t i s i n agreement w i t h A l l i s o n here when he argues t h a t "... whether or not the s o l u t i o n t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r [ a d v i s o r ] p e r c e i v e s t o be s a t i s f a c t o r y i s a c c e p t e d as the s a t i s f a c t o r y s o l u t i o n i s l a r g e l y a matter of the p o l i t i c a l power of i t s s u p p o r t i n g f a c t i o n " (1979:69). Thus, when a s o l u t i o n i s put f o r w a r d i n a c r i s i s , i t may or may not be the b e s t s o l u t i o n , but maybe the f e a s i b l e one due t o the p a r t i c u l a r g c o n f i g u r a t i o n of power d i s t r i b u t i o n a t the t i m e . I n p o l i t i c a l systems c h a r a c t e r i z e d by s t r o n g f a c t i o n a l a l i g n m e n t s t h i s i s 9 p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t the main f a c t i o n s w i t h a s t a k e i n the i s s u e s be i n c l u d e d i n any s e t t l e m e n t . I f t h e y a r e n o t , the s e t t l e m e n t w i l l be weak and hard t o implement. I n t r a - g r o u p b a r g a i n i n g r a i s e s the q u e s t i o n of c o a l i t i o n -f o r m a t i o n as a way of s t r e n g t h e n i n g a d e s i r e d p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . However, p o l i t i c a l g r o u p i n g s a re not always c l e a r l y d e f i n e d , e s p e c i a l l y a f t e r major p o l i t i c a l u p h e a v a l s , and i t may not be 24 easy t o i d e n t i f y f a c t i o n a l a l i g n m e n t s . Moreover, the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n may not p e r c e i v e the p o t e n t i a l danger t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s and f a c t i o n s may r e p r e s e n t i n the f u t u r e due t o t h e i r c hanging i n f l u e n c e . F u r t h e r m o r e , a l a c k of t r u s t among d i f f e r e n t f a c t i o n a l l e a d e r s (where t h e s e can be i d e n t i f i e d ) w i t h i n each of the p a r t i e s t o the c o n f l i c t may p r e v e n t a c o a l i t i o n from f o r m i n g . The p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n may not f e e l t h a t g i v i n g o t h e r s i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e camps a say w i l l keep them from a t t a c k i n g the s e t t l e m e n t i n the f u t u r e . Because of such problems, c o a l i t i o n - f o r m a t i o n may not be p o s s i b l e i n u n s t a b l e p o l i t i c a l e nvironments and t h i s l i m i t s t he u s e f u l n e s s of 10 the c o n c e p t . The above remarks suggest t h a t the s u c c e s s or f a i l u r e of b a r g a i n s may be e x p l a i n e d by l o o k i n g a t both the f o r c e s t h a t p a r t o o k i n the s e t t l e m e n t and those t h a t d i d n o t . I f the " i n s " g r a d u a l l y l o s e power d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e as a r e s u l t of the " o u t s ' " a c t i v i t i e s , the b a r g a i n may e v e n t u a l l y f a i l . Not o n l y t h a t , but a p r o c e s s of o u t b i d d i n g may d e v e l o p because th o s e e x c l u d e d from the b a r g a i n may promise t o r e a c h an even b e t t e r s e t t l e m e n t . ^ T h e r e f o r e , when a b a r g a i n i s b e i n g c a r r i e d out i t i s i m p o r t a n t not t o i g n o r e p o t e n t i a l o p p o s i n g f o r c e s . E s p e c i a l l y i n w e a k l y - i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s , power s h i f t s may always o c c u r . The e f f e c t a l l t h i s has on the t o p d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , t h a t i s , on the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s , i s s u c c i n c t l y put by Glenn Snyder and P a u l D i e s i n g , T h e i r e x p e r i e n c e ... i s one of b e i n g c o n t i n u a l l y p u l l e d i n d i f f e r e n t d i r e c t i o n s by t h e i r v a r i o u s s u b o r d i n a t e s , 2 5 the p a r t i s a n s . Each p a r t i s a n ... i s c o n t i n u a l l y p r e s s i n g h i s c a s e , by p r e s e n t i n g s e l e c t e d i n f o r m a t i o n , u r g i n g s e l e c t e d v a l u e s , o f f e r i n g s l a n t e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and arguments. The p a r t i s a n s * purpose • i s t o ... [get the c e n t r a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r ] committed t o the f a v o u r e d s t r a t e g y . (1977:352). S t r a t e g y Search S t r a t e g y s e a r c h i s the t h i r d p r o c e s s of L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model. S i m p l y s t a t e d , i t i s the g r a d u a l p r o c e s s of c l o s i n g i n on a s a t i s f a c t o r y s o l u t i o n t h r o u g h r e p e a t e d e f f o r t s ( L o c k h a r t , 1979:71). The p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n g i v e on some i s s u e s and t a k e on o t h e r s u n t i l an adequate s e t t l e m e n t i s re a c h e d . In t h i s way, no i m p r e s s i o n i s c r e a t e d of h a v i n g " s o l d o u t " and t h e b a r g a i n g a i n s l e g i t i m a c y . S t r a t e g y s e a r c h i s o f t e n a time-consuming p r o c e s s because once a c o n c e s s i o n i s g i v e n or t a k e n , a p r o c e s s of i n f o r m a t i o n r e -i n t e r p r e t a t i o n ensues and s t r a t e g i e s a r e r e a s s e s s e d and sometimes even a l t e r e d . When c o n c r e t e p r o p o s a l s a r e i n t r o d u c e d i n t o the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s t h e y may be r e j e c t e d as th e y s t a n d or v a r i a t i o n s of them may be demanded as each p a r t i c i p a n t t r i e s t o maximize h i s g a i n s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note here t h a t the p a r t i c i p a n t s e s t a b l i s h a d i r e c t l i n k , not o n l y a c r o s s the b a r g a i n i n g t a b l e , but a l s o w i t h t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e a d v i s o r s i n t h e i r p o l i t i c a l u n i t s who have the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of s i l e n c i n g the opponents of p a r t i c u l a r c o n c e s s i o n s . As L o c k h a r t s t a t e s , a r e c o n c i l i a t i o n of d i f f e r e n c e s i s sought by decomposing each p a r t i c i p a n t ' s g o a l s i n o r d e r t o see what can be t r a d e d o f f and what cannot (19 79:81). At t h i s s t a g e of the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s much depends on the d e s i r e f o r an agreement. I f an agreement i s sought a t a l l c o s t s 26 by one of the p a r t i c i p a n t s then he/she w i l l be more w i l l i n g t o g r a n t c o n c e s s i o n s and t o go a g a i n s t the wishes of those w i t h i n h i s / h e r p o l i t i c a l u n i t who oppose a s e t t l e m e n t . S e v e r a l r e a s o n s account f o r t h i s k i n d of b e h a v i o u r . They may i n c l u d e the d e s i r e t o upgrade one's r e p u t a t i o n as a l e a d e r and as a problem s o l v e r , a s t r o n g d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o remove a l o n g , drawn-out d i s p u t e from the p o l i t i c a l c e n t e r s t a g e , or s i m p l y the o p p o r t u n i t y t h a t c e r t a i n d r a m a t i c e v e nts p r e s e n t , such as b e i n g e l e c t e d w i t h a massive m a j o r i t y t o a p o s i t i o n of power. The most s e r i o u s problem d u r i n g the s t r a t e g y s e a r c h i s the tendency t o g r a n t c o n c e s s i o n s t h a t i n r e a l i t y are not w i t h i n any of the p a r t i c i p a n t s ' power t o g i v e . T h i s may cause problems d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e as sometimes o n l y one of the p a r t i c i p a n t s w i l l be a b l e t o d e l i v e r on h i s / h e r s i d e of the b a r g a i n . Sometimes, the a b i l i t y of one p a r t i c i p a n t t o d e l i v e r h i s / h e r p a r t of t h e q u i d pro quo w i l l depend on the o t h e r c o n c e d i n g something f i r s t . T h i s i s the case when one p a r t i c i p a n t ' s a u t h o r i t y i s b e i n g eroded and a c o n c e s s i o n by the o t h e r would h e l p the former r e a s s e r t h i s / h e r l e a d e r s h i p , t h u s e n a b l i n g him/her t o f u l f i l l h i s / h e r s i d e of the b a r g a i n . A f a i l u r e t o u n d e r s t a n d a s i t u a t i o n l i k e t h i s may put the whole i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t i n j e o p a r d y . In e f f e c t , i t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t d u r i n g the n e g o t i a t i o n and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e s of a b a r g a i n b oth the weaknesses and s t r e n g t h s of a p a r t i c i p a n t ' s p o s i t i o n be u n d e r s t o o d by the o t h e r p a r t i c i p a n t s . In t h i s way, the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of the s e t t l e m e n t f a l l i n g a p a r t w i l l be m i n i m i z e d . 27 C h a r l e s L o c k h a r t ' s model i s u s e f u l f o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g the reasons f o r both the r e a c h i n g of b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t s and t h e i r demise. I n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , d e c i s i o n making, and s t r a t e g y s e a r c h a r e t h r e e p r o c e s s e s t h a t p r o v i d e v a l u a b l e i n s i g h t s i n t o p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g . In l o o k i n g a t the p a r t i c u l a r f a c t o r s t h a t l e a d t o the r e a c h i n g of b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t s t h r e e hypotheses can be p o s t u l a t e d t h a t w i l l h e l p guide the s t u d y . F i r s t , L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model s u g g e s t s t h a t b a r g a i n e d  s e t t l e m e n t s a r e the r e s u l t of p a r t i c u l a r power c o n f i g u r a t i o n s . The p a r t i c i p a n t s * p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r power, t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of e v e n t s , as w e l l as the r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e of i n t e r e s t s i n v o l v e d , a l l h e l p account f o r why a b a r g a i n i s s t r u c k or n o t . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o determine why a power c o n f i g u r a t i o n t h a t f a v o u r s an agreement d e v e l o p s a t a p a r t i c u l a r p o i n t i n t i m e . Thus, h i s t o r i c a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s such as d r a m a t i c  events or changes i n l e a d e r s h i p p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n the  i n i t i a t i o n of p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g . Second, i n d i v i d u a l l e a d e r s h i p i s a c r u c i a l a s p e c t of  b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n s . I n f a c t , a s u c c e s s f u l b a r g a i n i s , t o a l a r g e degree, made p o s s i b l e by d e c i s i v e and a u t h o r i t a t i v e l e a d e r s h i p of a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the d i s p u t e . A l e a d e r ' s c o n f i d e n t , but not e x a g g e r a t e d , p e r c e p t i o n of h i s r o l e and power i s e s s e n t i a l i n a b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n . T h i r d , d u r i n g the s t r a t e g y s e a r c h p r o c e s s i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s must p e r c e i v e t h a t t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s are  s i n c e r e i n t h e i r d e s i r e f o r an agreement. C o n c e s s i o n s , g e s t u r e s 28 of g o o d w i l l , and showing d e t e r m i n a t i o n a r e some of the t a c t i c s t h a t may be used t o c o n v i n c e c o u n t e r p a r t s of genuine i n t e n t i o n s . Once a b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t has been r e a c h e d , i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o l l o w s . Here a g a i n , L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model proves u s e f u l i n g u i d i n g a n a l y s i s and g i v i n g coherence t o s e e m i n g l y u n r e l a t e d i n f o r m a t i o n . At the g e n e r a l l e v e l i t can be argued t h a t i n w e a k l y - i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s changes i n t h e  c o n f i g u r a t i o n of power a r e produced by the way the b a r g a i n e d  s e t t l e m e n t was reached and t h i s may e v e n t u a l l y l e a d t o the demise  of the agreement. In f a c t , i t i s d u r i n g the t h r e e p r o c e s s e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n s t h a t the r o o t s of f u t u r e d i s c o r d can be sown. The t h r e e f o l l o w i n g hypotheses can be put f o r w a r d t o t e s t the above remarks. F i r s t , i f an agreement depends too much on the p a r t i c i p a n t s '  p e r c e i v e d c a p a c i t y t o s i l e n c e d i s s e n t i t w i l l prove weak and  d i f f i c u l t t o implement. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t d u r i n g the i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n p r o c e s s d e c i s i o n s s h o u l d not be made based on p a r t i c i p a n t s ' e x a g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r power and t h e i r c a p a c i t y t o m a i n t a i n i t . Second, i f d u r i n g the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s c o n s t r a i n t s  a r e m i s c a l c u l a t e d or i g n o r e d and/or i n t e r e s t s w i t h a major s t a k e  i n t he s e t t l e m e n t a r e e x c l u d e d t o t a l l y , t h i s may c o n t r i b u t e t o  the demise of the s e t t l e m e n t d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e . The u n l e a s h i n g of new f o r c e s opposed t o the s e t t l e m e n t s h o u l d be a v o i d e d by c a r e f u l c a l c u l a t i o n of the c o s t s of a d e c i s i o n . The e x c l u s i o n of groups w i t h v e s t e d i n t e r e s t s i n the i s s u e s s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d v e r y c a r e f u l l y . 29 T h i r d , i f d u r i n g the s t r a t e g y s e a r c h the q u i d pro quos a r e  s e t too h i g h or w i t h o u t u n d e r s t a n d i n g the need f o r c o o p e r a t i o n  d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e , the s e t t l e m e n t may be s c u t t l e d . C o o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d not end w i t h the s i g n i n g of an a c c o r d , but s h o u l d be p r e s e n t t h r o u g h o u t the whole i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phase. I t remains t o be shown how L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model can prove t o be u s e f u l f o r the s t u d y of the Punjab A c c o r d . In Chapter I I , I i n t e n d t o demonstrate how the A c c o r d f o l l o w e d a s e r i e s of d r a m a t i c e v e n t s and l e a d e r s h i p changes which v i v i d l y i l l u s t r a t e the t h e o r y p r e s e n t e d above. However, b e f o r e we look a t how the A c c o r d was a c t u a l l y reached i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o u n d e r s t a n d why an a c c o r d was needed i n t h i s most t r o u b l e d of I n d i a ' s s t a t e s i n the 1980's. 30 NOTES 1. F o c u s i n g on the p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n t h a t l e d t o the Punjab A c c o r d i s o n l y one of the many ways t h a t Punjab p o l i t i c s can be approached. Other approaches t h a t have been attempted i n c l u d e : E t h n i c i t y , Robin J e f f r e y , What's Happening t o  I n d i a ? Punjab, E t h n i c C o n f l i c t , Mrs. Gandhi's Death and the  Tes t f o r F e d e r a l i s m ( B a s i n g s t o k e : T h e M a c m i l l a n P r e s s , 1986); f a c t i o n a l i s m , K u l d i p Nayar and Khushwant S i n g h , Tragedy of  Punjab (New D e l h i : V i s i o n Books P v t . L t d . , 1984), Mark T u l l y and S a t i s h J a c o b , A m r i t s a r : Mrs. Gandhi's L a s t B a t t l e (London: Pan Books L t d . , 1985); economic changes, A m a r j i t Narang, Democracy, Development and D i s t o r t i o n (New D e l h i : G i t a n j a l i P u b l i s h i n g House, 1986); p o l i t i c a l a n t h r o p o l o g y , Joyce P e t t i g r e w , Robber Noblemen (London: R o u t l e d g e and Kegan P a u l , 1985); economic a n t h r o p o l o g y , Murray L e a f , "The Punjab C r i s i s , " A s i a n Survey 25:5 (May 1985), 475-98; f e d e r a l i s m , A b i d a Samiuddin, ed., The Punjab C r i s i s :  C h a l l e n g e and Response (New D e l h i : M i t t a l P u b l i c a t i o n s , 1985) . 2. For an a n a l y s i s of the changing p e r c e p t i o n s of Punjab's b o u n d a r i e s see H a r j o t O b e r o i , "From Punjab t o ' K h a l i s t a n ' : T e r r i t o r i a l i t y and Metacommentary," P a c i f i c A f f a i r s 60:1 ( S p r i n g 1987), 26-41. 3. The SGPC i s the e l e c t e d body of the S i k h s t h a t has the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of r u n n i n g the S i k h temples of Punjab. T h i s organ i s i m p o r t a n t f o r t h r e e r e a s o n s . F i r s t , i t s p r e s i d e n t h o l d s a l a r g e degree of i n f l u e n c e i n S i k h p o l i t i c s and h i s s u p p o r t i s i n d i s p e n s a b l e f o r any l e a d e r s e e k i n g t o e s t a b l i s h h i s c o n t r o l over the A k a l i D a l . Second, because temples a r e the l i n k s between the " e l i t e s " and the "masses", the SGPC both a f f e c t s and r e f l e c t s S i k h p u b l i c o p i n i o n . T h i r d , the SGPC c o n t r o l s the revenue of the hundreds of temples under i t s j u r i s d i c t i o n . 4. Under the 1956 I n t e r - S t a t e R i v e r D i s p u t e s A c t , the r i v e r w a ters of Punjab were t o be a l l o c a t e d by an i m p a r t i a l t r i b u n a l a p p o i n t e d by New D e l h i . The purpose was t o uphold the agreements reached i n the Indus Water T r e a t y reached by I n d i a and P a k i s t a n i n t h a t same y e a r . 5. The e f f e c t s of the Green R e v o l u t i o n a r e examined by Robin J e f f r e y , What's Happening t o I n d i a : P u n j a b , E t h n i c C o n f l i c t ,  Mrs. Gandhi's Death and the Test f o r F e d e r a l i s m ( B a s i n g s t o k e : The M a c m i l l a n P r e s s , 1986); Murray L e a f , Song  of Hope: The Green R e v e l o u t i o n i n a Punjab V i l l a g e (New J e r s e y : R u t g e r s U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1971); and Gopal S i n g h , "Socio-Economic Bases of the Punjab C r i s i s , " Economic and  P o l i t i c a l Weekly, J a n u a r y 7, 1984. 31 6. For the s e m i n a l work on r e l a t i v e d e p r i v a t i o n see Ted R. G u r r , Why Men R e b e l ( P r i n c e t o n : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1970. 7. The SGPC sought t o c o n t r o l S i k h temples elsewhere i n I n d i a f o r t h r e e r e a s o n s . F i r s t , the 20% of I n d i a ' s S i k h s t h a t l i v e o u t s i d e of Punjab c o u l d be brought under i t s i n f l u e n c e i n t h i s way. Second, the economic r e s o u r c e s of the SGPC would grow s u b s t a n t i a l l y i f more temples were brought under i t s c o n t r o l . T h i r d , t h i s would e x t e n d the A k a l i D a i ' s p o l i t i c a l base t h r o u g h o u t I n d i a and g i v e i t p o l i t i c a l l e v e r a g e i n p u r s u i n g S i k h i n t e r e s t s o u t s i d e Punjab. 8. By power d i s t r i b u t i o n i s meant the r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e d i f f e r e n t key a c t o r s have i n a p o l i t i c a l system. Over time t h i s i n f l u e n c e may wax or wane a n d . t h i s h e l p s account f o r the p o l i t i c a l f l u i d i t y of w e a k l y - i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s . Power i s the a b i l i t y of A t o make B do something t h a t B would not do o t h e r w i s e . 9. On f a c t i o n a l i s m t h e o r y see, Frank B e l l o n i and Dennis B e l l e r , F a c t i o n P o l i t i c s : P o l i t i c a l P a r t i e s and F a c t i o n a l i s m i n  Comparative P e r s p e c t i v e (Santa B a r b a r a : C l i o Books, L t d . , 1978 ) . 10. On c o a l i t i o n t h e o r y see, W i l l i a m R i k e r , The Theory of  P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1962; A. de Swann, C o a l i t i o n T h e o r i e s and C a b i n e t F o r m a t i o n s (San F r a n c i s c o : J o s s e y - B a s s , 1973); G a b r i e l Almond e t a l . , C r i s i s , C h o ice and Change ( B o s t o n : L i t t l e , Brown, and Co.,1973). 11. On o u t b i d d i n g s e e , A l v i n Rabushka and Kenneth S h e p s l e , P o l i t i c s i n P l u r a l S o c i e t i e s : A Theory of Democratic  I n s t a b i l i t y (Columbus, Ohio: C h a r l e s E. M e r r i l l P u b l i s h i n g Co., 1972). 32 CHAPTER I I ; THE ACCORD TO END DISCORD B e f o r e t u r n i n g t o t h e e v e n t s t h a t l e d t o t h e s i g n i n g of t h e Punjab A c c o r d i n 1985, i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o loo k a t Pun j a b ' s p o l i t i c s i n t h e e a r l y 1980's. Why d i d t h e y become so t e n s e f o l l o w i n g I n d i r a Gandhi's r e t u r n t o power i n 1980? Why were S i k h g r i e v a n c e s never s e t t l e d ? Why d i d c o n f l i c t w i t h i n t h e S i k h community, between S i k h s and Hi n d u s , and between Punjab and New D e l h i , grow t o such v i o l e n t p r o p o r t i o n s a f t e r Mrs. Gandhi's r e t u r n ? These a r e q u e s t i o n s t h a t have t o be answered b e f o r e the e v e n t s of 1985 can be a d e q u a t e l y e x p l a i n e d . SEPARATISM AND COMMUNAL VIOLENCE IN THE PUNJAB The most i m p o r t a n t consequence f o r P u n j a b of Mrs. Gandhi's r e t u r n t o power i n 1980 was the i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of p a r t y f a c t i o n a l i s m . . I n g r e a t p a r t , t h i s was t h e r e s u l t of her a t t e m p t s t o d i v i d e and weaken p o w e r - h o l d e r s b o t h w i t h i n t h e Congress p a r t y and t h e A k a l i D a l . I n t h e Congress p a r t y , t h e main f a c t i o n a l s t r u g g l e was between the newly a p p o i n t e d c e n t r a l Home M i n i s t e r , G i a n i Z a i l S i n g h , and t h e r e c e n t l y e l e c t e d C h i e f * M i n i s t e r of 1 P u n j a b , Darbara S i n g h . I n 1980, I n d i r a Gandhi b r o u g h t Z a i l S i n g h , former C h i e f M i n i s t e r of Punjab (1972-77), t o New D e l h i i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t him from e s t a b l i s h i n g t o o s t r o n g a power base i n t h a t s t a t e . T h i s was c l e a r l y a p r o m o t i o n f o r Z a i l S i n g h . However, due t o the f l u i d i t y of I n d i a ' s p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m he sought t o m a i n t a i n a s t r o n g power base i n t h e Punjab i n case he f e l l from I n d i r a ' s f a v o u r . As a r e s u l t , he r e s o r t e d t o " d i r t y p o l i t i c s " t o u n d e r c u t D a r b a r a S i n g h ' s power ( J e f f r e y , 1986:139). Z a i l S i n g h made use of a f u n d a m e n t a l i s t S i k h p r e a c h e r named J a r n a i l S i n g h B h i n d r a n w a l e . B h i n d r a n w a l e had been a l i t t l e known l e a d e r who came t o Z a i l S i n g h ' s a t t e n t i o n a f t e r a group of Sant N i r a n k a r i s k i l l e d t w e l v e S i k h s i n 1978. The Sant N i r a n k a r i s a r e a s e c t o f . S i k h i s m t h a t b e l i e v e i n a l i v i n g guru or master and t h i s was a h e r e s y t o o r t h o d o x S i k h s . B h i n d r a n w a l e c l a i m e d t o r e p r e s e n t o r t h o d o x y and i n h i s z e a l t o " r e f o r m " t h e S i k h f a i t h he came i n t o armed c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h t h e Sant N i r a n k a r i s . The d e a t h s of 1978 were th e c l i m a x of t h i s c o n f l i c t . B h i n d r a n w a l e * s m i l i t a n c y was never p o p u l a r but p o l i t i c a l l y he c o u l d e a s i l y be m a n i p u l a t e d t o d i v i d e t h e S i k h community. For t h i s r e a s o n , Z a i l S i n g h and S a n j a y G a n d h i , I n d i r a ' s s o n , r e c r u i t e d him i n 1978 t o d i v i d e t h e A k a l i D a l p a r t y which was t h e n r u l i n g t h e s t a t e of P u n j a b . The o p p o r t u n i t y t o d i v i d e t h e S i k h s p r e s e n t e d i t s e l f i n 1979. T h a t y e a r , the S h i r o m a n i Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee, the body i n charge of r u n n i n g t h e S i k h t e m p l e s , was h a v i n g i t s f i r s t e l e c t i o n s s i n c e 1965. C o n t r o l of t h e SGPC was i m p o r t a n t due t o t h e i n f l u e n c e t h i s body has over S i k h p u b l i c o p i n i o n . The e l e c t i o n s a r e t o be c a r r i e d out e v e r y f i v e y e a r s and i t i s the government of I n d i a t h a t c a l l s them. However, C o n g r e s s - r u l e d New D e l h i had postponed the e l e c t i o n s t w i c e and now, as b e f o r e , p r o -A k a l i S i k h s were l i k e l y t o be the w i n n e r s . For t h i s r e a s o n , Z a i l S i n g h and S a n j a y Gandhi a t t e m p t e d t o use B h i n d r a n w a l e t o d i v i d e p r o - A k a l i S i k h s . T h i s d i d not work as Congress was r o u t e d by t h e A k a l i D a l ( T u l l y and J a c o b , 1985:61). D e s p i t e t h i s f a i l u r e , B h i n d r a n w a l e was s t i l l u s e f u l t o Z a i l S i n g h . He c o u l d use B h i n d r a n w a l e t o u n d e r c u t Darbara S i n g h ' s power i n the Punjab ( T u l l y and J a c o b , 1985:66). However, B h i n d r a n w a l e o n l y remained i n Z a i l ' s camp u n t i l 1981. The A k a l i D a l was a l s o s u b j e c t t o f a c t i o n a l i s m i n t h e e a r l y 1980's. Three major f a c t i o n s can be i d e n t i f i e d . One was l e d by Harchand. S i n g h Longowal, t h e P r e s i d e n t of t h e A k a l i D a l , r e p r e s e n t i n g the moderate mainstream of the S i k h community. Ano t h e r f a c t i o n was l e d by P r a k a s h S i n g h B a d a l , former C h i e f M i n i s t e r of Punjab (1977-80). The members of t h i s f a c t i o n were g e n e r a l l y more r a d i c a l t h a n Longowal's men as t h e y were a t t e m p t i n g t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e i r s u p p o r t base by a p p e a l i n g t o the more f u n d a m e n t a l i s t e l e m e n t s o f t h e A k a l i D a l . L a s t l y , t h e r e was t h e f a c t i o n l e d by G u r c h a r a n S i n g h T o h r a , who had been the p r e s i d e n t of t h e SGPC s i n c e 1973. T h i s f a c t i o n was the most outs p o k e n as i t r e p r e s e n t e d the most r e l i g i o u s l y i n c l i n e d e l e ments i n t h e A k a l i D a l , t h o s e who s i n c e t h e 1970's had t u r n e d i n c r e a s i n g l y f u n d a m e n t a l i s t . A p r o c e s s of o u t b i d d i n g d e v e l o p e d between t h e s e f a c t i o n s as a l l p r o m i s e d t o a c h i e v e t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the major c l a u s e s of t h e Anandpur S a h i b R e s o l u t i o n . N e e d l e s s t o s a y , I n d i r a , r e f u s e d t o g r a n t any of them any c o n c e s s i o n s s i n c e t h e A k a l i s were th e g r e a t e s t t h r e a t t o Congress i n P u n j a b and any v i c t o r i e s of t h e A k a l i s would s t r e n g t h e n them a t the expense of the Congress (Nayar and S i n g h , 1984:50). As a r e s u l t , c a l l s f o r g r e a t e r autonomy f o r P u n j a b began a t t h i s t i m e . I t was i n t h i s atmosphere of p o l i t i c a l f l u i d i t y i n t h e A k a l i D a l and f a c t i o n a l i n t r i g u e i n the Congress t h a t the B h i n d r a n w a l e phenomenon a c q u i r e d a l i f e of i t s own. B h i n d r a n w a l e u n i t e d d i v e r s e f r i n g e elements of t h e S i k h ' community i n t o a f u n d a m e n t a l i s t movement which t h r o u g h t h e use of v i o l e n c e a c q u i r e d i n f l u e n c e f a r beyond i t s numbers. The main elements t h a t c o n s t i t u t e d B h i n d r a n w a l e 1 s movement were d i s a f f e c t e d S i k h y o u t h s . These y o u t h s a d v o c a t e d s e p a r a t i s m , and some even s e c e s s i o n , as a way t o s e t t l e S i k h g r i e v a n c e s . V i o l e n c e was an a c c e p t e d t a c t i c f o r t h e s e r a d i c a l e l e m e n t s . E v e n t u a l l y , S i k h s e p a r a t i s m became n o t o r i o u s f o r the v i o l e n c e t h a t accompanied i t . M a t t e r s were made worse by Mrs. Gandhi's r e f u s a l t o s e t t l e t h e g r i e v a n c e s , as t h i s o n l y s t r e n g t h e n e d f e e l i n g s of a l i e n a t i o n i n th e S i k h community. Moderate l e a d e r s s u c h as Longowal c e a s e l e s s l y l o o k e d f o r some c o n c e s s i o n s f rom New D e l h i t o t a k e the i n i t i a t i v e away from the e x t r e m i s t s ( A k b a r , 1985:196), but t h e s e never came. Between November: 1981. and May 1984, w h i l e the e x t r e m i s m of B h i n d r a n w a l e i n t e n s i f i e d , Longowal and o t h e r moderate A k a l i . l e a d e r s had t w e n t y - s i x meetings w i t h Congress r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , but none of t h e i r demands was a c c e p t e d by I n d i r a G a n d h i . As a r e s u l t , t h e p o p u l a r i t y of B h i n d r a n w a l e s p r e a d and the c a l l s f o r v i o l e n t means t o a c h i e v e t h e r e s o l u t i o n of t h e g r i e v a n c e s d a t i n g back t o 1966 became more s t r i d e n t . P r e s s u r e f o r the c r e a t i o n of " K h a l i s t a n " i n t e n s i f i e d as more and more S i k h s grew d i s a p p o i n t e d w i t h C ongress r u l e . E v e n t u a l l y , as the law and o r d e r s i t u a t i o n d e t e r i o r a t e d i n P u n j a b , P r e s i d e n t ' s R u l e was d e c l a r e d i n l a t e 1983 . The e s c a l a t i o n of v i o l e n c e c l i m a x e d w i t h O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r , the government's a t t a c k on the Golden Temple a t A m r i t s a r t o " f l u s h o u t " B h i n d r a n w a l e and a few dozen t e r r o r i s t s l o d g e d w i t h i n i t s p r e c i n c t s on June 5-6, 1984. Many S i k h s saw the need to-" f l u s h o u t " the t e r r o r i s t s b ut the s c a l e of the a t t a c k , a l t h o u g h s u c c e s s f u l i n e l i m i n a t i n g B h i n d r a n w a l e , was a p o l i t i c a l b l u n d e r . The Golden Temple i s the h o l i e s t S i k h s h r i n e . The a t t a c k on the Temple and t h e k i l l i n g of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,000 i n n o c e n t w o r s h i p p e r s a c c e n t u a t e d f e e l i n g s of a l i e n a t i o n , as d i d t h e imprisonment of t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s and over 400 o t h e r S i k h s . The a s s a s s i n a t i o n of Mrs. Gandhi by two S i k h s on October 31 was a d i r e c t r e s u l t of O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r . Once a g a i n , however, t h e S i k h s as a community were h u m i l i a t e d . F o l l o w i n g I n d i r a ' s d e a t h , r i o t s s p r e a d i n New D e l h i and o t h e r major c i t i e s and over 2500 2 S i k h s were k i l l e d . S u s p i c i o n s of Congress i n v o l v e m e n t i n the r i o t s made t h e s i t u a t i o n even worse. When R a j i v Gandhi became prime m i n i s t e r a f t e r h i s mother's d e a t h , i t a p p a r e n t l y became c l e a r t o him t h a t a p o l i t i c a l , r a t h e r t h a n a m i l i t a r y , s o l u t i o n t o the Punjab c r i s i s was needed. At t h i s p o i n t , a p r o c e s s of p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g between t h e A k a l i s and Congress l e a d e r s " i n New D e l h i took p l a c e . AN ACCORD AT LAST The December 1984 e l e c t i o n was a massive v i c t o r y f o r t h e Congress p a r t y and p r o v i d e d R a j i v Gandhi w i t h a new mandate t o d e a l w i t h c e n t e r - s t a t e c o n f l i c t . H a ving won f o u r - f i f t h s of t h e Lok Sabha s e a t s , R a j i v had o b t a i n e d the l a r g e s t m a j o r i t y e v er i n I n d i a ! Some have argued t h a t t h e e l e c t i o n not o n l y r e p r e s e n t e d a sympathy v o t e due t o the d e a t h of h i s mother but a l s o t h a t , a l t h o u g h p e o p l e wanted a change of government, t h e o l d - l i n e o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s were u n a t t r a c t i v e . R a j i v l o o k e d g o a l - o r i e n t e d and many who would not have v o t e d f o r h i s mother v o t e d f o r him (Narang, 1986:155). T h i s p e r c e p t i o n was r e f l e c t e d i n an I n d i a  Today c a r t o o n where R a j i v was p o r t r a y e d as an octop u s w i t h each t e n t a c l e h o l d i n g p l a n s , new t e c h n o l o g y , and t o o l s w i t h w h i c h t o move I n d i a i n t o the t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y . ( J a n u a r y 31, 1986:8-9). H i s massive m a j o r i t y and p e r s o n a l p o p u l a r i t y gave R a j i v t h e c o n f i d e n c e t o t a c k l e the: P unjab c r i s i s w i t h a d e t e r m i n a t i o n h i s mother had alw a y s l a c k e d . The P u n j a b , however, had not p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the e l e c t o r a l p r o c e s s of December 1984. The gloom t h e r e c o n t r a s t e d s h a r p l y w i t h t h e e u p h o r i a i n t h e r e s t of I n d i a . P u n j a b , s i n c e June 1984, was de f a c t o b e i n g r u l e d by New D e l h i u s i n g the. Armed F o r c e s S p e c i a l Powers A c t . T h i s meant t h a t t h e army and p o l i c e i n Pun j a b had s p e c i a l powers t h a t were r e s e r v e d f o r emergency s i t u a t i o n s o n l y . Moreover, A l l - I n d i a R a d i o and t h e n a t i o n a l t e l e v i s i o n networks p o r t r a y e d the Punjab i n a d e r o g a t o r y manner and t h i s made t h e S i k h s of Punjab f e e l even more a l i e n a t e d f rom I n d i a . C l e a r l y the r e t u r n of Pu n j a b i n t o the a l l - I n d i a d e m o c r a t i c p r o c e s s was g o i n g t o be one of t h e main p r i o r i t i e s f o r the new prime m i n i s t e r . A l t h o u g h i t took o n l y seven months t o r e a c h an agreement on i s s u e s t h a t d a t e d back t o the m i d - s i x t i e s , t h e b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n t h a t d e v e l o p e d was bo t h complex and d i f f i c u l t . I n f a c t , i t went t h r o u g h t h r e e major phases. The f i r s t phase r a n from e a r l y - J a n u a r y t o e a r l y - M a r c h 1985; the second phase from e a r l y - M a r c h t o l a t e - M a y ; and the t h i r d phase from l a t e - M a y t o the date of t h e s i g n i n g of the A c c o r d , J u l y 24, 1985. The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s p e r i o d i z a t i o n w i l l become c l e a r i n the f o l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s . 38 The f i r s t phase of the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s , r u n n i n g from J a n u a r y t o e a r l y March, 1985, was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by an o p t i m i s t i c new prime m i n i s t e r t h i n k i n g he c o u l d s o l v e the Punjab c r i s i s q u i c k l y , and a l s o by t h e l a c k of any c o h e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p i n t h e A k a l i camp. As a r e s u l t , no agreement was p o s s i b l e a t the t i m e . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , R a j i v d i d not p e r c e i v e t h e d e p t h of t h e prob l e m i n Punjab and the p r e s s u r e t o which moderate A k a l i l e a d e r s were s u b j e c t e d by t h e r a d i c a l s . As w e l l , t h e A k a l i l e a d e r s a t the t i m e , most of whom were o n l y second-rung men, d i d not p r e s e n t a u n i f i e d f r o n t which c o u l d r e p r e s e n t A k a l i i n t e r e s t s a d e q u a t e l y and. d e a l w i t h R a j i v from a p o s i t i o n of s t r e n g t h a c r o s s t h e b a r g a i n i n g t a b l e . I n e f f e c t , d u r i n g t h i s phase t h e r e was a f a i l u r e of i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n on t h e p a r t of R a j i v Gandhi as he d i d not r e a l i z e t h a t t h e A k a l i camp was t o o d i v i d e d t o be a b l e t o b a r g a i n e f f e c t i v e l y . However, what was a l s o n o t i c e a b l e was t h a t R a j i v was t a k i n g h i s prime m i n i s t e r ' s r o l e of f e d e r a l c o n c i l i a t o r much f u r t h e r t h a n h i s l a t e mother ever had. H i s massive v i c t o r y must have made him c o n f i d e n t about h i s power and about the g o a l s he c o u l d o b t a i n w i t h t h a t power. R a j i v ' s o p t i m i s m was shown c l e a r l y by h i s s t a t e m e n t of J a n u a r y 4, which s a i d t h a t an agreement s h o u l d be r e a c h e d q u i c k l y between New D e l h i and t h e A k a l i D a l i n o r d e r t o h o l d an e l e c t i o n i n t he Punjab i n March (Times of I n d i a [ h e n c e f o r t h , T i m e s ] . J a n u a r y 5, 1985). T h i s f o l l o w e d the appointment of a C a b i n e t sub-committee t o l o o k i n t o t he Punjab t a n g l e . T h i s committee c o n s i s t e d of the Home M i n i s t e r , S.B. Chavan, the Defence M i n i s t e r , Narasimha Rao and the E d u c a t i o n M i n i s t e r , K.C. P a n t . The l a c k of any Congress S i k h s or Haryana l e a d e r s i n t h i s t o p 39 d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g body was a d e p a r t u r e from I n d i r a ' s p o l i c y of s e e k i n g t h e a d v i c e of b o t h Congress S i k h s and Haryana p o l i t i c i a n s when d e a l i n g w i t h the A k a l i s . Mrs. G a n d h i , a l t h o u g h not w i l l i n g t o g r a n t c o n c e s s i o n s t o t h e A k a l i D a l , had a l w a y s been i n c o n t a c t w i t h them i n o r d e r t o manage p o l i t i c a l t e n s i o n s . A l s o , she a l w a y s c o n s u l t e d Haryana i n i s s u e s t h a t a f f e c t e d t h e P u n j a b . R a j i v ' s a p p r o a c h would prove h a r m f u l i n the f u t u r e as he was i g n o r i n g i m p o r t a n t i n t e r e s t s w i t h s t a k e s i n t h e Punjab c o n f l i c t . ' R a j i v Gandhi hoped t h a t w i t h h i s massive December v i c t o r y he would be a b l e t o c o n t r o l r esentment and d i s a f f e c t i o n i n the P u n j a b . He had won a l l t e n s e a t s from Haryana, the s t a t e t h a t s t o o d t o l o s e most i n a s e t t l e m e n t w i t h P unjab (Abraham, 1985:1298). Haryana was the s t a t e w i t h which Punjab had i t s t e r r i t o r i a l and water d i s p u t e s and t h e s e i s s u e s were p e r c e i v e d as hard t o s e t t l e w i t h o u t t h e r e being, a winner and a l o s e r . These r e s u l t s c o u l d not be but an endorsement of R a j i v ' s a p p r o a c h . The s t y l e of the new prime m i n i s t e r was t h a t of a t e c h n o c r a t . With r e s p e c t t o t h e P u n j a b he adopted modern c r i s i s management t e c h n i q u e s t o r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t . He s e t up a t i g h t l y - k n i t command group, k e p t h i s mind c l e a r by w o r k i n g from b r i e f p o s i t i o n p a p e r s and m a i n t a i n e d s e c r e c y by i n s i s t i n g t h a t documents were o n l y t o be r e a d by t h o s e who needed t o know ( T u l l y & J a c o b , 1985:223). Moreover, he d i d not a l l o w any b u r e a u c r a t or p o l i t i c i a n t o i n t e r f e r e w i t h h i s o f f i c i a l s i n Punjab ( I b i d . , 1985:220). In t h i s way, R a j i v sought t o q u e l l s p e c u l a t i o n and keep communal harmony. H i s o b j e c t was t o r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t t h a t would be c o n s i d e r e d s a t i s f a c t o r y by b o t h S i k h s and Hindus i n s i d e P u n jab and o u t s i d e . A l e x a n d e r George's O p e r a t i o n a l Code model pr o v e s u s e f u l i n h e l p i n g e x p l a i n the p o l i t i c a l r e l e v a n c e of R a j i v ' s t a c t i c s i n t h e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s . As s u g g e s t e d i n the t h e o r y , a p o l i t i c i a n ' s a s s u m p t i o n s about t h e p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m and h i s i n d i v i d u a l p o l i t i c a l r o l e a r e i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g h i s l e a d e r s h i p s t y l e . R a j i v was a t e c h n o c r a t and he a t t e m p t e d t o s e t t l e A k a l i g r i e v a n c e s w i t h o u t u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t p o l i t i c a l maneuvering was a l s o n e c e s s a r y . I n f a c t , t h e t e c h n o c r a t i c a p p r o a c h was not s u i t e d f o r a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h t r a d e - o f f s would have t o be made. Two f a c t o r s a c c o u n t f o r t h e l a c k of u n i f i e d and c o h e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p i n , the. A k a l i . camp from J a n u a r y t o March. F i r s t , t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s such as Longowal, B a d a l , and Tohra were i n p r i s o n d u r i n g t h i s t i m e . As a r e s u l t , the A k a l i D a l p a r t y and t h e major r e l i g i o u s g o verning, i n s t i t u t i o n of t h e S i k h s , the SGPC, were i n t h e hands of l e s s a u t h o r i t a t i v e p o l i t i c i a n s . These d i d not have the p o p u l a r s u p p o r t or i n f l u e n c e t h a t the i m p r i s o n e d A k a l i l e a d e r s had, and t h e r e f o r e , t h e y c o u l d not make f a r - r e a c h i n g d e c i s i o n s . Moreover, t h e y d i s a g r e e d among t h e m s e l v e s as t o what c o u r s e of a c t i o n t o t a k e . N o t h i n g p r o v i d e s b e t t e r e v i d e n c e of t h i s t h a n t h e i r a t t i t u d e s towards a p o s s i b l e e l e c t i o n . W h i l e t h e a c t i n g head of t h e A k a l i D a l , S u r j a n S i n g h Thakedar, s t a t e d , t h a t any e l e c t i o n s h o u l d o n l y f o c u s on t h e Anandpur S a h i b R e s o l u t i o n , Balwant S i n g h , a former Punjab f i n a n c e m i n i s t e r , s a i d t h a t t h e A k a l i D a l p a r t y would d e c i d e how t o d e a l w i t h the e l e c t i o n o n l y a t a l a t e r d a t e . Both t h e s e men were shunned, i n t u r n , by the a c t i n g head of t h e SGPC, Prem S i n g h L a l p u r a , who s t a t e d t h a t t h e p a r t y had no r i g h t t o d e c i d e on any major i s s u e s r e l a t i n g t o the e l e c t i o n ( T r i b u n e , J a n u a r y 24, 1985). L a l p u r a ' s comments r e f e r r e d t o the c o n f l i c t t h a t r e l i g i o u s l y - i n c l i n e d A l a k i s had had w i t h more s e c u l a r A k a l i p o l i t i c i a n s . N o r d l i n g e r ' s comments about the need f o r a predominant l e a d e r as a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o c o n f l i c t r e g u l a t i o n prove i l l u m i n a t i n g h e r e . I n the P unjab t h e r e c l e a r l y was no predominant l e a d e r . The second f a c t o r t h a t a c c o u n t e d f o r t h e l a c k of any c o h e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p i n the A k a l i D a l was the renewed i m p o r t a n c e of S i k h m i l i t a n t s and t e r r o r i s t s . T e r r o r i s t v i o l e n c e began once a g a i n i n J a n u a r y a f t e r h a v i n g been p r a c t i c a l l y e l i m i n a t e d a f t e r June 1984. The new s t r e n g t h of the m i l i t a n t s was t h e r e s u l t of the: i n f l u x of, r e f u g e e s from th e r e s t of I n d i a f o l l o w i n g t h e e a r l y November r i o t s . Over 40,000 S i k h s f l e d t o t h e P unjab a f t e r t h e r i o t s ( I n d i a Today, J a n u a r y 15, 1985:111). A l s o , the m i l i t a n t s were s t r e n g t h e n e d by t h e r e t u r n of S i k h y o u t h s from P a k i s t a n . Many of t h e s e y o u t h s had been s u p p o r t e r s of B h i n d r a n w a l e and had f l e d t o P a k i s t a n f o l l o w i n g O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r (Times, F e b r u a r y 26, 1985). The m i l i t a n t s were s u f f i c i e n t l y i n f l u e n t i a l t o d e t e r moderate l e a d e r s f rom s t a n d i n g up t o them. Those who d i d were s h o t . T h i s was the case w i t h K i r p a l S i n g h , a c t i n g head of the Akal. T a k h t , who on J a n u a r y 16, 1985, was s h o t f o l l o w i n g h i s c r i t i c i s m of Sikh* t e r r o r i s m . I n e v i t a b l y , the m i l i t a n t s i n f l u e n c e d A k a l i l e a d e r s t o t a k e a tough s t a n d i n t h e i r d e a l i n g s w i t h D e l h i . W i t h th e t e r r o r i s t s g a i n i n g s t r e n g t h , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t R a j i v ' s a t t e m p t t o s o l v e the P unjab c r i s i s , i n time t o h o l d an e l e c t i o n i n March 1985 proved f u t i l e . S.B. Chavan of t h e c a b i n e t sub-committee s t a t e d t h a t d u r i n g F e b r u a r y s e v e r a l m eetings were c a r r i e d out between government l e a d e r s and A k a l i 42 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , but o n l y t h e m o d a l i t i e s of f u t u r e o f f i c i a l c o n t a c t s were worked out ( I n d i a Today, F e b r u a r y 15, 1985:37). However, t h e y d i d a l l o w f o r exchanges of i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t made R a j i v r e a l i z e t h a t he had t o appr o a c h t h e Punjab i s s u e d i f f e r e n t l y . T h i s new appr o a c h was not o n l y t h e r e s u l t of new i n f o r m a t i o n but a l s o of a t h r e a t by the A k a l i s t o s t a r t an a g i t a t i o n on A p r i l 12 i f t h e i r demands were not met. Three demands were put f o r w a r d . F i r s t , t he Anandpur S a h i b R e s o l u t i o n s h o u l d be the b a s i s of any t a l k s w i t h New D e l h i . Second, an i n q u i r y c ommission s h o u l d be a p p o i n t e d t o l o o k i n t o the e v e n t s s u r r o u n d i n g the D e l h i r i o t s . T h i r d , " c i v i l i a n s " i m p r i s o n e d i n Jodhpur a f t e r O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r s h o u l d be r e l e a s e d (Times, F e b r u a r y 26, 1985). These c o n d i t i o n s came t h r e e days a f t e r R a j i v had announced h i s p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r t a l k s w i t h the A k a l i s . He had s t a t e d t h a t t h e A k a l i D a l p a r t y s h o u l d d i s o w n the t e r r o r i s t s and t h a t t h e y s h o u l d agree t o p l a c e a l l t h e i r demands w i t h i n t h e framework of t h e I n d i a n C o n s t i t u t i o n ( T r i b u n e , F e b r u a r y 23, 1985). Thus, by the end of F e b r u a r y , 1985, a s t a l e m a t e had t a k e n h o l d . By t h i s t i m e , R a j i v had d e c i d e d not t o have an e l e c t i o n i n Pun j a b i n March a s , i t was a r g u e d , t h i s would o n l y e x a c e r b a t e communalism due t o t h e f l u i d p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n t h e s t a t e . I n f a c t , one of the p i l l a r s of R a j i v ' s a p p r o a c h t o t h e Punjab c r i s i s was h i s r e s o l v e t o keep e l e c t o r a l c o n c e r n s out of t h e p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s he was a t t e m p t i n g t o b e g i n w i t h the A k a l i D a l . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note here t h a t t h e Congress d i d not f a r e w e l l i n the March 1985 e l e c t i o n s i n e l e v e n s t a t e s . I n a l m o s t e v e r y s t a t e Congress s u p p o r t d e c l i n e d . These d e f e a t s d i d not r e l a t e t o t h e P u n j a b c r i s i s s i n c e s t a t e e l e c t i o n s c e n t e r on r e g i o n a l i s s u e s . However, R a j i v s h o u l d have t a k e n t h i s as a w a r n i n g . H i s power was not as overwhelming as the December 19 84 v i c t o r y has s u g g e s t e d . As can be s e e n , d u r i n g t h e f i r s t phase of t h e b a r g a i n i n g , R a j i v Gandhi m i s i n t e r p r e t e d t h e s i t u a t i o n and a t t e m p t e d t o s e t t l e t h e c r i s i s w i t h s e c o n d - r u n g A k a l i l e a d e r s . Of c o u r s e , t h i s d i d not work. More s i g n i f i c a n t were d e f e c t s i n the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s t h a t d e v e l o p e d i n R a j i v ' s camp. No S i k h l e a d e r s were i n c l u d e d , w h i c h was s y m b o l i c a l l y and s t r a t e g i c a l l y a weakness. Not o n l y t h a t , but t h e f a i l u r e t o i n c l u d e Haryana r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s seemed t o i m p l y t h a t t h e i r i n t e r e s t s i n t h e P u n j a b s i t u a t i o n were b e i n g i g n o r e d . A. s e t t l e m e n t r e a c h e d t h i s way, as L o c k h a r t ' s model s u g g e s t s , would be v e r y tough t o implement. The second phase of t h e b a r g a i n i n g , p r o c e s s l a s t e d from e a r l y - M a r c h t o l a t e - M a y . T h i s phase was d i s t i n g u i s h e d by the e f f e c t s of two new d e v e l o p m e n t s . One was t h e a ppointment of A r j u n S i n g h as g o v e r n o r of t h e P unjab and h i s r o l e as m e d i a t o r i n t h e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s . The o t h e r was t h e r e l e a s e of t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s from p r i s o n and the g r a d u a l r i s e t o prominence of the moderates: w i t h i n t h e A k a l i D a l . These two e v e n t s were c r i t i c a l t o the s i g n i n g of the A c c o r d i n J u l y 1985. A r j u n S i n g h ' s r o l e as c o n c i l i a t o r a l l o w e d R a j i v t o communicate w i t h t h e A k a l i s t h r o u g h a "man on the s p o t " . The C a b i n e t Sub-committee spe n t most of i t s time i n New D e l h i . A r j u n S i n g h had d a i l y c o n t a c t w i t h b o t h the A k a l i s and R a j i v and t h i s a l l o w e d f o r a d i a l o g u e t h a t had not been p o s s i b l e i n J a n u a r y and F e b r u a r y . The r i s e t o prominence of moderate A k a l i l e a d e r s was a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t . A l t h o u g h a t f i r s t weak, the moderates e v e n t u a l l y s t o o d up t o the r a d i c a l s and t h i s a l l o w e d f o r the c r e a t i o n of a s t r o n g f o c u s of power i n t h e A k a l i camp w i t h which R a j i v c o u l d b a r g a i n . As the g e n e r a l s e c r e t a r y of t h e Congress put i t , " a l l we want i s t h a t A k a l i p o l i t i c s s h o u l d be s e t t l e d . As l o n g as t h e y remain f l u i d the P unjab p r o b l e m cannot be s e t t l e d " ( I n d i a Today, June 15, 1985:20). A r j u n S i n g h was a p p o i n t e d g o v e r n o r of P unjab on March 12, t h e day a f t e r , he had been sworn i n as C h i e f M i n i s t e r of Madhya P r a d e s h ! I t i s not h a r d t o c o n c l u d e t h a t R a j i v was s i m p l y w a i t i n g f o r him t o be r e - e l e c t e d i n t h e e a r l y - M a r c h p o l l i n o r d e r t o s h u t t l e him t o C h a n d i g a r h . A r j u n had j o i n e d Congress d u r i n g Nehru's time and had been m i n i s t e r a t t h e s t a t e l e v e l s i n c e 1963. He had a l s o been Madhya P r a d e s h ' s C h i e f M i n i s t e r s i n c e 1980. I m m e d i a t e l y he: began b u i l d i n g b r i d g e s of c o n f i d e n c e and i n l i t t l e o ver a week he managed t o b r i n g R a j i v t o t h e P u n j a b f o r a v i s i t (Narang, 1.986:160-61). T h i s showed t h a t he had R a j i v ' s t o t a l s u p p o r t and t h a t he spoke w i t h t h e prime m i n i s t e r ' s t a c i t a p p r o v a l . At. the same t i m e of A r j u n ' s a p p o i n t m e n t , R a j i v o r d e r e d th e r e l e a s e of t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s . Among the r e l e a s e d were Sant. Harchand. S i n g h Longowal, the: A k a l i . p r e s i d e n t , and S u r j i t S i n g h B a r n a l a , the S a n t ' s r i g h t - h a n d man and former Union M i n i s t e r f o r A g r i c u l t u r e . These two p o l i t i c i a n s had a l w a y s been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by t h e i r m o d e r a t i o n . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , more outspoken l e a d e r s s u ch as P r a k a s h S i n g h B a d a l and G u r c h a r a n S i n g h Tohra were not r e l e a s e d u n t i l A p r i l 14. T h i s was done t o a l l o w the moderates t o e s t a b l i s h t h e i r l e a d e r s h i p unhampered by f a c t i o n a l i n t r i g u e . 45 T h i s d e s i r e t o show th e moderates t h a t R a j i v was d e t e r m i n e d t o s o l v e the c r i s i s e x p l a i n s the numerous p o l i t i c a l i n i t i a t i v e s t h a t f o l l o w e d i n t h e l a t t e r h a l f of March. On March 14, t h e S p e c i a l Powers ( P r e s s ) A c t of Punjab was w i t h d r a w n ; on March 23, R a j i v announced an economic package f o r t h e s t a t e — i n c l u d i n g a r a i l w a y coach f a c t o r y t o be e s t a b l i s h e d i n L u d h i a n a t h a t would employ 10,000 p e o p l e , and a new dam ( K a l i a , 1985:89). On March 29, R a j i v d i s c u s s e d the Punjab c r i s i s w i t h n a t i o n a l o p p o s i t i o n l e a d e r s i n o r d e r t o d e v e l o p a c o n s e n s u s , and on March 30, he announced a wheat bonus o f Rs. 5 per q u i n t a l . Moreover, on A p r i l 2, t h e C a b i n e t sub-committee on Punjab v i s i t e d the s t a t e , and a f t e r A p r i l 5, a mass c o n t a c t programme was c a r r i e d out by Congress MP's and MLA's i n o r d e r t o show New D e l h i ' s commitment t o Punjab, a t the g r a s s - r o o t s l e v e l ( I n d i a Today, A p r i l 30, 1985:12). These numerous i n i t i a t i v e s , however, a p p a r e n t l y d i d not h e l p s t r e n g t h e n the moderates r e l a t i v e t o t h e m i l i t a n t s . The p r o o f t h a t t h e m i l i t a n t s had a l a r g e degree of i n f l u e n c e c o u l d be seen i n the f a c t t h a t Sant Longowal on March 30 had f e l t p r e s s u r e d enough t o r a i s e from t h r e e t o seven t h e number of items demanded as a p r e c o n d i t i o n t o t a l k s (Times, March 31, 1985). T h i s t r i g g e r e d o f f a s e r i e s of meetings between government l e a d e r s and A k a l i s . These meetings not: o n l y i n v o l v e d A r j u n S i n g h but a l s o members of the C a b i n e t Sub-committee on Punjab and the C a b i n e t Committee on P o l i t i c a l A f f a i r s . The d i s c u s s i o n s c o n v i n c e d t h e government t h a t i f a new a g i t a t i o n were l a u n c h e d on A p r i l 12, as had been warned on F e b r u a r y 26, t h e c o s t s would s i m p l y be t o o h i g h ( I n d i a Today, A p r i l 30, 1985:10). T h e r e f o r e , New D e l h i had t o make new c o n c e s s i o n s . These c o n c e s s i o n s were made the day b e f o r e t h e A k a l i a g i t a t i o n was t o b e g i n and c o n s i s t e d of e s t a b l i s h i n g an o f f i c i a l i n q u i r y i n t o the D e l h i r i o t s , t he l i f t i n g of the ban on t h e A l l - I n d i a S i k h S t u d e n t F e d e r a t i o n ( A I S S F ) , and broad h i n t s t h a t more A k a l i and AISSF l e a d e r s would be r e l e a s e d (Times, A p r i l 12, 1985). Two days l a t e r , B a d a l and Tohra were r e l e a s e d . H a v i n g been t h u s s u c c e s s f u l , t h e A k a l i l e a d e r s h i p c a l l e d o f f i t s a g i t a t i o n p l a n s and a new a t t i t u d e began t o permeate t h e A k a l i Dai-New D e l h i r e l a t i o n s h i p . The major development i n t h i s c h a n g i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p was Sant Longowal's s t a t e m e n t of A p r i l 27 t h a t t h e A k a l i D a l was opposed t o t e r r o r i s m and. t h a t a l l i t s demands were w i t h i n the framework of t h e I n d i a n C o n s t i t u t i o n (Times, A p r i l 28, 1985). I n e f f e c t , t h i s meant t h a t whereas p r e v i o u s l y the government had met most of the A k a l i p r e c o n d i t i o n s , now the A k a l i s a g r e e d t o D e l h i ' s p r e c o n d i t i o n s . . A rapprochement had f i n a l l y t a k e n p l a c e ! T h i s rapprochement was g i v e n c r e d i b i l i t y by the me e t i n g of the t o p f o u r A k a l i l e a d e r s on A p r i l 30. That day Sant Longowal, B a r n a l a , T o h r a , and B a d a l a g r e e d on t a k i n g a p o s i t i v e a p p r o a c h t o New D e l h i (Times, May 1, 1985). Also,, t h e Sant e s t a b l i s h e d a c o n s u l t a t i v e committee which, i n c l u d e d t h e above p o l i t i c i a n s and Balwant S i n g h , one of h i s t o p a i d e s (Nayar, 19 8 5:394-95). A c r e d i b l e and u n i f i e d l e a d e r s h i p had now been e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t c o u l d d e a l w i t h R a j i v . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h i n g s d i d not prove so s i m p l e . The day a f t e r the t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s met, S i k h r a d i c a l s made t h e i r move. On May 1, under t h e puppet l e a d e r s h i p of J o g i n d e r S i n g h , the o c t o g e n a r i a n f a t h e r of B h i n d r a n w a l e , t h e y c a l l e d f o r the u n i o n of a l l A k a l i f a c t i o n s , b o t h moderate and r a d i c a l , and announced the f o r m a t i o n of the U n i t e d A k a l i D a l . T h i s would mean t h a t t h e moderate A k a l i s c o u l d not c a r r y out a d i a l o g u e w i t h New D e l h i w i t h o u t o u t b i d d i n g by t h e U n i t e d A k a l i D a i ' s l e a d e r s h i p , which was m a i n l y r a d i c a l . I n many ways i t l o o k e d l i k e , a r e t u r n t o t h e e a r l y 1980's, when, t h e r a d i c a l s took t h e i n i t i a t i v e away from t h e moderates. T h i s , however, d i d not o c c u r i n May 1985. On May 12 Longowal, T o h r a , and B a d a l " r e s i g n e d " from any p o s t s i n t h e U n i t e d A k a l i D a l as an o b v i o u s c h a l l e n g e t o J o g i n d e r S i n g h . The moderates' d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o s t a n d up t o the r a d i c a l s was a c c e n t u a t e d by the " t r a n s i s t o r bombings" i n New D e l h i i n wh i c h 81 pe o p l e were k i l l e d by S i k h s e p a r a t i s t s . Sant Longowal used t h i s e v e n t t o condemn S i k h t e r r o r i s m and t h o s e who i n s t i g a t e d i t . The moderates' o p p o s i t i o n , t o J o g i n d e r S i n g h was v i n d i c a t e d i n l a t e -May when, a meeting of A k a l i r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from a l l over P u n j a b asked them not t o r e s i g n and t o "assume t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s " as l e a d e r s of the A k a l i D a l ( T r i b u n e , May 23, 1985). As can be see n , Longowal's b e l l i g e r e n c y i n l a t e March a l l o w e d him t o r e a s s e r t h i s a u t h o r i t y . A f t e r J o g i n d e r ' s a t t e m p t t o o u t b i d him, the Sant s t o o d up t o the c h a l l e n g e and became the u n d i s p u t e d head of t h e A k a l i D a l ( I n d i a Today, August 15, 1985:9-11), and. t h e one S i k h l e a d e r who c o u l d l e a d t h e mainstream of t h e S i k h community ( M a l i k , 1985:1471) ., Thus:, t h e second 1 phase of t h e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s t o s o l v e t h e P unjab c r i s i s saw the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a s t r o n g and, f o r the most p a r t , u n i f i e d l e a d e r s h i p . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t brought an improvement i n the i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l s between New D e l h i and Pun j a b as a r e s u l t of A r j u n S i n g h ' s appointment t o t h e 48 g o v e r n o r s h i p of t h a t s t a t e . The s t a g e was now s e t f o r c l o s i n g i n on a s o l u t i o n a c c e p t a b l e t o b o t h New D e l h i and the A k a l i s . However, a l t h o u g h t h e improvement of i n f o r m a t i o n between th e two camps and the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a u n i f i e d l e a d e r s h i p over a l l p a r t i e s i l l u s t r a t e s t h e c o n d i t i o n s f o r a b a r g a i n as s u g g e s t e d i n L o c k h a r t ' s model., some problems can be d e t e c t e d , most i m p o r t a n t l y i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i n R a j i v ' s camp. No S i k h s Or Haryana p o l i t i c i a n s were i n c l u d e d d u r i n g t h i s second phase of t h e b a r g a i n i n g . As w e l l , R a j i v seemed t o be g i v i n g e v e r y t h i n g t h e A k a l i s demanded and more. T h i s made i n t e r e s t s w i t h a b i g s t a k e i n t h e P unjab c r i s i s wary about any s e t t l e m e n t t h e prime m i n i s t e r was p l a n n i n g t o r e a c h w i t h the A k a l i D a l . The t h i r d phase of t h e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s r a n from l a t e - M a y t o t h e s i g n i n g : of the P unjab A c c o r d on J u l y 24. T h i s s t a g e , i n many ways, e x e m p l i f i e s many a s p e c t s of t h e S t r a t e g y S e a r c h component of L o c k h a r t * s b a r g a i n i n g model. The p a r t i c i p a n t s t o t h e b a r g a i n r e c o n c i l e d t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s and t r a d e d - o f f i s s u e s . R a j i v had t o r e a s s u r e t h e A k a l i s t h a t t h e i r i n t e r e s t s were b e i n g t a k e n s e r i o u s l y , by New D e l h i . T h i s was a major c o n c e r n f o r Longowal, who had been d i s a p p o i n t e d on numerous o c c a s i o n s by I n d i r a G a n d h i . At: t h e same t i m e , the prime: m i n i s t e r had t o make s u r e not t o g r a n t t o o much t o the A k a l i s . as t h i s would be viewed, as a s e l l - o u t . t o t h e S i k h s by t h e p r e d o m i n a n t l y H i n d i - s p e a k i n g Hindu v o t e r s of n o r t h I n d i a . Sant Longowal's problems were of a d i f f e r e n t k i n d . He had t o show New D e l h i t h a t he was i n c o n t r o l of the s i t u a t i o n i n Punjab and t h a t he c o u l d m a i n t a i n communal harmony i n the s t a t e . However, t o do t h i s the Sant had t o o b t a i n , enough c o n c e s s i o n s i n h i s b a r g a i n i n g w i t h New D e l h i , t o show the. S i k h s t h a t the moderate ap p r o a c h was the b e s t f o r s a f e g u a r d i n g S i k h i n t e r e s t s . I f he d i d not get enough from New D e l h i , i t was p o s s i b l e t h a t the r a d i c a l s would g a i n the i n i t i a t i v e . A f t e r b e i n g r e i n s t a t e d , Sant Longowal l a u n c h e d a "peace o f f e n s i v e " . He t r a v e l l e d e x t e n s i v e l y , r e i t e r a t i n g H i n d u - S i k h a m i t y , condemning a c t s of v i o l e n c e by S i k h e x t r e m i s t s , and r e p e a t e d l y d e c l a r i n g t h a t the A k a l i D a l was not i n f a v o u r of t h e p u r s u i t of a s e p a r a t e s t a t e of K h a l i s t a n (Kapur, 1986:242). He was v e r y s u c c e s s f u l i n t h i s and c l e a r l y became the most p o p u l a r l e a d e r among the S i k h masses. T h i s made o t h e r A k a l i s f o l l o w h i s lead, and s t i c k t o him (Times, June 14, 1985). D u r i n g t h i s t i m e , Longowal c l e a r l y r e p r e s e n t e d the m a j o r i t y S i k h v i e w . New D e l h i d i d not r e s t i d l e t h r o u g h o u t a l l t h i s . A r j u n S i n g h was busy m e e t i n g A k a l i l e a d e r s and t r y i n g t o come up w i t h package d e a l s t h a t would have the a p p r o v a l of b o t h th e prime m i n i s t e r and t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s . I n f a c t , A r j u n h e l d f o u r t e e n m eetings of t h i s k i n d w i t h S i k h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s d u r i n g t h i s phase of the b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s ( I n d i a Today, August 19, 1985:9) H i s e f f o r t s were a i d e d by t h e removal of S.S. Randhawa as p r e s i d e n t of t h e P u n j a b Congress due t o a l l e g e d l i n k s w i t h t e r r o r i s t s . Randhawa was c l o s e t o t h e former C h i e f M i n i s t e r , D a r b a r a S i n g h , and h i s r e p l a c e m e n t by R.S. Sparrow was an a t t e m p t t o c l e a r t h e P u n j a b Congress of i t s o l d f a c t i o n a l a l i g n m e n t s (Times, June 19, 1985; I n d i a Today, J u l y 31, 1985:13). I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note here t h a t A r j u n S i n g h ' s meetings w i t h A k a l i l e a d e r s u s u a l l y i n c l u d e d o n l y Longowal, B a r n a l a , and Balwant S i n g h . Tohra and B a d a l were e x c l u d e d due t o the f e a r t h a t t h e y would d e l a y the s e a r c h f o r a s e t t l e m e n t of the P unjab 50 c r i s i s ( I n d i a Today, August 31, 1985:8-9). At t h i s t i m e , and as a r e s u l t of t h e i r i m p r i s o n m e n t , t h e s e men's f a c t i o n s were i n d i s a r r a y and some of t h e i r f o l l o w e r s had " d e f e c t e d " , n o t i c e a b l y from th e B a d a l f a c t i o n , t o o t h e r f a c t i o n s . However, a l t h o u g h t h e i r e x c l u s i o n from the t a l k s may have speeded up the p r o c e s s of r e a c h i n g a s e t t l e m e n t t o s o l v e t h e P unjab c r i s i s , i t proved v e r y h a r m f u l t o i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . R a j i v had a n o t h e r d e a d l i n e t o meet and t h i s a l s o h e l p s e x p l a i n h i s d e s i r e f o r an agreement t h a t would r e s t o r e n o r m a l i t y t o t h e P u n j a b i On October 6, 1985, P r e s i d e n t ' s R u l e would e x p i r e i n t h e s t a t e and a C o n s t i t u t i o n a l Amendment would have t o be p r o m u l g a t e d t o e x t e n d i t . The g e n e r a l consensus was t h a t t h e e x t e n s i o n of P r e s i d e n t ' s R u l e would be c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e ( T r i b u n e , June 22, 1985). I n e f f e c t , between June 18 and June 27, R a j i v met A r j u n S i n g h t h r e e t i m e s t o d i s c u s s t h e c o u r s e of e v e n t s i n l i g h t of t h e a p p r o a c h i n g end of P r e s i d e n t ' s R u l e (Times, June 28, 1985). The c o n c l u s i o n of t h e s e t a l k s seems t o have been t h a t the moderates needed a n o t h e r push t o get them t o r e s p o n d more f a v o r a b l y t o New D e l h i ' s o v e r t u r e s . K e e p i n g i n l i n e w i t h t h e above a s s e s s m e n t , s t a r t i n g on June 29,. S i k h s who had been, d e t a i n e d d u r i n g O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r began t o be r e l e a s e d . That day, 152 p e o p l e were f r e e d . F o l l o w i n g t h i s , 200 were r e l e a s e d on J u l y 1, 100 on J u l y 3, and 600 on J u l y 7. These r e l e a s e s were accompanied by A r j u n S i n g h ' s c a l l s f o r t a l k s . On June 30, he urged the A k a l i l e a d e r s h i p t o j o i n the government i n o r d e r " t o r e s t o r e the honour and d i g n i t y of t h e S i k h s " i n the c o u n t r y . He a l s o s t a t e d t h a t the A k a l i s s h o u l d be more f o r t h c o m i n g i n r e s p o n d i n g t o the g e s t u r e s of R a j i v ( T r i b u n e , J u l y 1, 1985). At t h e same time t h a t t h i s was g o i n g on, R a j i v was a r r a n g i n g f o r a p e r s o n a l m e e t i n g w i t h Sant Longowal. As can be s e e n , he was d e t e r m i n e d t o r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t and was o n l y w a i t i n g f o r the A k a l i s t o make up t h e i r minds. The e vent t h a t seemed t o f i n a l l y e s t a b l i s h Longowal's supremacy i n t h e p a r t y and t h a t gave him the courage t o meet R a j i v was t h e A k a l i D a l m e e t i n g a t Anandpur d u r i n g the second week of J u l y . D u r i n g t h i s g a t h e r i n g , the Sant was g i v e n a u t h o r i t y t o c h a s t i s e t h e U n i t e d A k a l i D a l and t o s t r e a m l i n e the p a r t y ( T r i b u n e , J u l y 9, 1985). In e f f e c t , Longowal had been g i v e n c a r t e b l a n c h e t o r e p r e s e n t t h e A k a l i D a l . As can be s e e n , Sant Longowal's m e e t i n g w i t h R a j i v Gandhi on J u l y 23 and 24 was o n l y p o s s i b l e once the Sant f e l t s e c u r e enough i n h i s s t a n d i n g b o t h w i t h r e s p e c t , t o t h e prime m i n i s t e r and. w i t h r e s p e c t t o h i s b a s i s of s u p p o r t . The Memorandum of S e t t l e m e n t s i g n e d on t h e 2 4 t h was made p o s s i b l e , however, by one o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r w h i c h , i n many ways, l a t e r p l a y e d a r o l e i n i t s demise. When R a j i v met Longowal on the 2 3 r d , Z a i l S i n g h , the p r e s i d e n t of I n d i a , was away from the c a p i t a l . Moreover, Buta S i n g h , t h e M i n i s t e r of A g r i c u l t u r e , and D a r b a r a S i n g h , t h e former C h i e f M i n i s t e r , were a l s o d e l i b e r a t e l y k e p t away from the b a r g a i n i n g t a b l e due t o t h e i r i n v o l v e m e n t w i t h P u n j a b i p o l i t i c s . A l l of t h e s e men were from P u n j a b , and b e i n g p a r t of the Congress p a r t y r e p r e s e n t e d a p o w e r f u l segment of the S i k h e l i t e ( I n d i a Today, August 15, 1985:9). Some have even argued t h a t the A c c o r d had been reached s i x weeks e a r l i e r but a " s u i t a b l e " t ime was sought t o make i t p u b l i c (Far E a s t e r n Economic Review, August 8, 1985, p. 9 ) . R a j i v must have f e a r e d t h a t t h e i r p r e s e n c e would come i n t h e way of s i g n i n g the A c c o r d . I n the A k a l i camp, some l e a d e r s were a l s o l e f t o u t . Only Balwant S i n g h and S.S. B a r n a l a went t o D e l h i ; B a d a l and Tohra were not even i n f o r m e d t h a t t h e ^ S a n t was g o i n g t o meet R a j i v Gandhi. I n r e t r o s p e c t , i t can be seen t h a t the A c c o r d t h a t was rea c h e d i n J u l y was o n l y p o s s i b l e because of t h e e x c l u s i o n of such p o l i t i c i a n s who had t o o many v e s t e d i n t e r e s t s i n i t s f a i l u r e . Whatever t h e c a s e , once the A c c o r d was s i g n e d , a l l h a i l e d i t as a major b r e a k t h r o u g h . Few f o c u s e d on i t s f l a w s u n t i l t he i n i t i a l e u p h o r i a had p a s s e d . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s was t h a t a l m o s t a l l A k a l i g r i e v a n c e s had been d e a l t w i t h . O n l y time would show t h a t t h e A c c o r d was a. h o r n e t ' s n e s t . B e f o r e moving onto C h a p t e r Three where t h e demise of t h e A c c o r d i s a n a l y z e d , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o p r e s e n t t h e Memorandum of S e t t l e m e n t i n i t s e n t i r e t y . I t c o n s i s t e d of e l e v e n p a r a g r a p h s and t h e y can be summarized as f o l l o w s : 1. Compensation i s t o be p a i d f o r t h o s e k i l l e d i n a g i t a t i o n s or any a c t i o n a f t e r August 1, 1982. 2. M e r i t i s e s t a b l i s h e d as t h e b a s i s of r e c r u i t m e n t f o r t h e army ( t h u s g u a r a n t e e i n g S i k h p r e f e r e n c e ! ) . 3. The D e l h i r i o t s i n q u i r y i s extended t o t h e c i t i e s of Kanpur. and Bokaro. 4. S i k h s who d e s e r t e d the armed s e r v i c e s f o l l o w i n g O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r a r e t o be r e h a b i l i t a t e d . 5. An A l l - I n d i a Gurdwara A c t i s t o be c o n s i d e r e d by the Government of I n d i a . 6. The Armed F o r c e s S p e c i a l Powers A c t i s withdrawn and t h e scope of S p e c i a l C o u r t s i s narrowed down s u b s t a n t i a l l y . 7. C h a n d i g a r h i s t o be t r a n s f e r r e d t o Punjab on J a n u a r y 26, 1986; Haryana w i l l be compensated t e r r i t o r i a l l y f o r t h i s ; one boundary commission w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d t o d e a l w i t h the 53 above c l a u s e and a n o t h e r one w i l l d e a l w i t h boundary r e a d j u s t m e n t s between Punjab and Haryana. 8. Those p a r t s of the Anandpur S a h i b R e s o l u t i o n t h a t d e a l w i t h C e n t e r - S t a t e r e l a t i o n s w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o the S a r k a r i a Commission. 9. The P unjab r i v e r w a t e r s w i l l be a d j u s t e d by a t r i b u n a l t h a t w i l l r e p o r t w i t h i n s i x months; the S u t l e j - Y a m u n a L i n k c a n a l t h a t w i l l c a r r y some of t h e s e w a t e r s t o Haryana i s t o be c o m p l e t e d by August 15, 1986. 10. C h i e f M i n i s t e r s t h r o u g h o u t I n d i a a r e asked t o ensure th e p r o t e c t i o n of m i n o r i t i e s . 11. The P u n j a b i language i s t o be promoted. The t h i r d phase of the b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n l a s t i n g from l a t e - M a y t o J u l y 24, 1985 i n v o l v e d a p r o c e s s of t r a d e - o f f s and r e c o n c i l i a t i o n of g o a l s . In s e v e r a l of the c l a u s e s of the A c c o r d i t can be seen t h a t wherever c o n f l i c t s were fou n d , compromises were r e a c h e d . For example, t r i b u n a l s were t o be c o n s t i t u t e d t o s o l v e t h e problems t h a t t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e b a r g a i n c o u l d not s e t t l e . I n e f f e c t , the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r f i n a l s e t t l e m e n t of s e v e r a l g r i e v a n c e s was p a s s e d on t o o t h e r s , w i t h the hope t h a t t h e y c o u l d d e a l w i t h them more e f f e c t i v e l y . Another p r o b l e m was t h a t t h e d a t e s s e t as t a r g e t s f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n were not r e a l i s t i c . They o n l y a l l o w e d f o r a v e r y s h o r t time span f o r a c h i e v i n g , an enormous amount of work. F i n a l l y , New D e l h i g r a n t e d a l m o s t a l l the A k a l i D a l had demanded w h i l e the A k a l i ' s q u i d pro  quo was t o m a i n t a i n communal harmony i n the P u n j a b . T h i s was g o i n g t o be v e r y hard t o implement a s , i n many ways, one depended on the o t h e r and, i n t u r n , b o t h depended on a degree of c o o p e r a t i o n and harmony between New D e l h i and P unjab t h a t had never r e a l l y e x i s t e d and was u n l i k e l y t o d e v e l o p . 54 FINAL REMARKS The e v e n t s l e a d i n g up t o the s i g n i n g of t h e Memorandum of S e t t l e m e n t between R a j i v Gandhi and H.S. Longowal on J u l y 24, 1985 p r o v i d e numerous t h e o r e t i c a l i n s i g h t s . At t h e most b a s i c l e v e l , i t can be seen t h a t b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t s a r e the r e s u l t of p a r t i c u l a r c o n f i g u r a t i o n s of power. F o l l o w i n g d r a m a t i c e v e n t s or changes i n l e a d e r s h i p , new c o n f i g u r a t i o n s of power d e v e l o p t h a t may f a v o u r a c o u r s e of a c t i o n c o n d u c i v e t o p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g . I n l a t e 1984, the d e a t h of I n d i r a Gandhi a l l o w e d f o r her son t o assume t h e prime m i n i s t e r s h i p . R a j i v began w i t h f r e s h i d e a s and w i t h a new a p p r o a c h t o g o v e r n i n g I n d i a t h a t c o n t r a s t e d s h a r p l y w i t h h i s mother's. As w e l l , he brou g h t w i t h him a new s e t of a d v i s o r s w i t h i n n o v a t i v e l e a d e r s h i p s t y l e s . The o l d guard seemed, d i s c r e d i t e d and t h e new prime m i n i s t e r promoted young t e c h n o c r a t s t o h i g h e r p o s i t i o n s w i t h i n the government. I n f a c t , a new l e a d e r s h i p w i t h new i d e a s and a new mandate had t a k e n t h e r e i n s of government. S e c o n d l y , t h i s c h a p t e r has de m o n s t r a t e d t h e im p o r t a n c e of i n d i v i d u a l l e a d e r s h i p i n the r e a c h i n g of b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t s . W i t h o u t t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of men such as R a j i v Gandhi and Sant Longowal, the A c c o r d would not have been p o s s i b l e . T h e i r a p p r o a c h foreshadowed problems f o r t h e A c c o r d , such as t h e i r e x c l u s i o n of i n t e r e s t groups from the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , but d e s p i t e t h i s , t h e y r e a c h e d the s e t t l e m e n t t h a t has come c l o s e s t t o s e t t l i n g t he Punjab t a n g l e . T h i s c h a p t e r has a l s o shown how a p r o c e s s of mutual t r u s t has t o d e v e l o p f o r a b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n t o be s u c c e s s f u l . Both R a j i v Gandhi and Sant Longowal were i n a dilemma as t o how much t o g i v e i n o r d e r t o show a genuine commitment t o s e t t l i n g t h e c r i s i s . I n f a c t , R a j i v had t o g r a n t a l a r g e number of c o n c e s s i o n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h h i s c r e d i b i l i t y i n the eyes of the A k a l i s . Longowal d i d not g i v e much i n t h e manner of c o n c e s s i o n s but he s t o o d up t o the r a d i c a l s ' c h a l l e n g e by " r e s i g n i n g " from the U n i t e d A k a l i D a l , denounced t e r r o r i s m , and opposed c a l l s f o r t h e c r e a t i o n o f K h a l i s t a n . T h i s seems t o have been enough f o r R a j i v t o be c o n v i n c e d t h a t Longowal was the man t o d e a l w i t h . In t h i s way, the b a r g a i n was g r a d u a l l y c o n s o l i d a t e d . D e s p i t e t h e above p o s i t i v e elements some problems can a l r e a d y be d e t e c t e d i n the A c c o r d . The l e a d e r s ' p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r power seemed t o have been e x a g g e r a t e d and i m p o r t a n t i n t e r e s t s were i g n o r e d i n the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . E s p e c i a l l y , Haryana was not a c t i v e l y c o n s u l t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e b a r g a i n i n g . L a s t l y , the q u i d pro quo r e q u i r e d a degree of r a p p o r t between New D e l h i and P unjab t h a t had never e x i s t e d b e f o r e and would p r o b a b l y be d i f f i c u l t t o d e v e l o p . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , once the i n i t i a l e u p h o r i a over the s e t t l e m e n t had e v a p o r a t e d , many began t o ask t h e m s e l v e s whether the A c c o r d would i n f a c t end the d i s c o r d which had b e d e v i l e d the Punjab f o r n e a r l y a decade. 56 NOTES The f a c t i o n a l s t r u g g l e between Darbara S i n g h and G i a n i Z a i l S i n g h d a t e d back t o t h e 1960's when b o t h sought t o g a i n t h e predominant p o s i t i o n i n the Punjab b r a n c h of the Congress p a r t y . C a s t e d i f f e r e n c e s may have a l s o p l a y e d a r o l e . W h i l e Darbara S i n g h i s a J a t , a p r e d o m i n a n t l y a g r i c u l t u r a l c a s t e , Z a i l S i n g h i s a Ramgharia, a lower c a s t e r e l a t i v e t o the J a t s t h a t i s l a r g e l y c o n c e n t r a t e d i n the urban a r e a s . For a d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e D e l h i r i o t s and Congress i n v o l v e m e n t , see Who a r e t h e G u i l t y ? a r e p o r t by t h e P e o p l e s ' Union f o r D e m o c r a t i c R i g h t s and the P e o p l e s ' Union f o r C i v i l L i b e r t i e s , 1984. In 1985 t h e r e was a s t r o n g f e e l i n g t h r o u g h o u t I n d i a t h a t Congress S i k h s had p l a y e d a l a r g e r o l e i n t h e e s c a l a t i o n of t h e Punjab c r i s i s , and R a j i v Gandhi was d e t e r m i n e d not t o l e t them i n t e r f e r e w i t h h i s i n i t i a t i v e s . 57 CHAPTER I I I ; THE RESURGENCE OF DISCORD The h o p e f u l n e s s of I n d i a i n J u l y 1985 c o n t r a s t s s h a r p l y w i t h the d e s p a i r of mid-1987. A f t e r two y e a r s of t r y i n g t o implement the P u n j a b A c c o r d , New D e l h i and the A k a l i s were a c c u s i n g each o t h e r of b e i n g i r r e s p o n s i b l e , o p p o r t u n i s t i c , t r a i t o r s , and even mad! P.S. B a d a l and G.S. Tohra were i n p r i s o n and C h i e f M i n i s t e r B a r n a l a had r e t u r n e d t o l i v e i n h i s farmhouse, now b u i l t and defended l i k e a f o r t r e s s . The t e r r o r i s t s were w r e a k i n g havoc on the p o p u l a t i o n . I n New D e l h i , c o n d i t i o n s were l e s s v i o l e n t but s i m i l a r l y c h a o t i c . R a j i v Gandhi seemed t o have l o s t c o n t r o l of the c o u n t r y and t o have r e s o r t e d d e s p e r a t e l y t o h i s l a t e mother's t a c t i c s and m a c h i n a t i o n s t o r e t a i n a t l e a s t n o m i n a l a u t h o r i t y over t h e I n d i a n p o l i t i c a l s y stem. The o l d Congress guard was back and a new guard opposed t o the weak l e a d e r s h i p of R a j i v was g a i n i n g s t r e n g t h . The A c c o r d had f a l l e n by t h e w a y s i d e . Why? As was argued i n . Chapter I , c h a n g i n g c o n f i g u r a t i o n s of p o l i t i c a l power i n w e a k l y - i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s i n f l u e n c e t h e way b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t s a r e implemented. In the case of the Punjab A c c o r d , t h e s e t t l e m e n t was r e a c h e d a t a p o i n t when groups f a v o u r i n g an agreement had the upper hand. However, s e v e r a l f a c t o r s i n the way t h e s e t t l e m e n t was r e a c h e d foreshadowed t h e problems f o r the f u t u r e . As d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter I I , r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of t h e s t a t e of Haryana were not c o n s u l t e d and o t h e r r e l e v a n t i n t e r e s t s were not i n c l u d e d i n the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . As w e l l , R a j i v Gandhi and Longowal based t h e i r a c t i o n s on an e x a g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n of t h e i r power. I t i s t r u e t h a t t h e s e men had t h e upper hand i n mid-1985 r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r 58 p o l i t i c i a n s . However, t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s c h e d u l e of the A c c o r d was g o i n g t o demand p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r o n g l e a d e r s h i p f o r the n e x t y e a r or two. The b i g g e s t p r o b l e m f o r the A c c o r d , i r o n i c a l l y , was how i t was r e a c h e d . As s u g g e s t e d above, i t s b a s i s of s u p p o r t i n 1985 was s t r o n g but narrow and i f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e b a r g a i n c o u l d not w i t h s t a n d the p r e s s u r e of the o p p o s i t i o n f o r c e s t h e y u n l e a s h e d , t h e P u n j a b A c c o r d would f a i l . C h apter I o u t l i n e d p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s of c o n f l i c t t h a t ought t o be a v o i d e d when a t t e m p t i n g t o r e a c h a b a r g a i n . These were e x a g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s of one's own power, the e x c l u s i o n of groups w i t h v e s t e d i n t e r e s t s from t h e b a r g a i n , t he f a i l u r e t o c o n s u l t a l l p a r t i e s t o the d i s p u t e , and u n r e a l i s t i c o f f e r s or e x p e c t a t i o n s of q u i d pro quos. As we w i l l see i n t h e f o l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s , a l l _ . t h e s e problems were p r e s e n t d u r i n g the b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n from J a n u a r y t o J u l y 1985. E v e n t u a l l y t h e y p l a y e d t h e d e c i s i v e r o l e i n s c u t t l i n g t h e A c c o r d d u r i n g t h e two y e a r s t h a t f o l l o w e d . FROM ACCORD TO DISCORD F o l l o w i n g t h e s i g n i n g of the A c c o r d on J u l y 24, 1985 and u n t i l J a n u a r y 1986, p o l i t i c s i n the P u n j a b seemed t o s t a b i l i z e . Even s e r i o u s i n c i d e n t s such as the a s s a s s i n a t i o n of Sant Longowal on August 20 d i d not i n t e r r u p t the p r o c e s s of n o r m a l i z a t i o n . Most p e o p l e adopted a w a i t - a n d - s e e a t t i t u d e . S e v e r a l f a c t i o n s i n the A k a l i D a l were brou g h t i n t o the moderate f o l d a t l e a s t t e m p o r a r i l y . Hours b e f o r e h i s d e a t h , t h e Sant had r e c o n c i l e d h i s d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h P.S. Ba d a l and G.S. Tohra , who r e s e n t e d h a v i n g been e x c l u d e d from t h e R a j i v - L o n g o w a l n e g o t i a t i o n s . E l e c t o r a l 59 c o n c e r n s k e p t t h e s e two l e a d e r s w i t h i n the A k a l i moderate mainstream d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . The e l e c t i o n s i n l a t e - S e p t e m b e r and t h e v i c t o r y of t h e A k a l i s f u r t h e r s t r e n g t h e n e d the p r o c e s s of n o r m a l i z a t i o n as the r a d i c a l s , who had b o y c o t t e d the e l e c t i o n , were shown t o be a t i n y m i n o r i t y of the S i k h community. A l s o i m p o r t a n t , but somewhat c o n t r o v e r s i a l , was the work of t h e t r i b u n a l l o o k i n g i n t o t h e t r a n s f e r of C h a n d i g a r h t o P u n j a b , which was t o t a k e p l a c e on J a n u a r y 26, 1986. Many f e l t t h a t t h i s would s e t t l e t h e most i m p o r t a n t g r i e v a n c e t h e S i k h s had. R a j i v a l s o p l a y e d a r o l e in\ k e e p i n g tempers c o o l . He " c o n v i n c e d " t h o s e opposed t o t h e A c c o r d t h a t i t was a good s e t t l e m e n t f o r a l l . I n e f f e c t , u n t i l J a n u a r y 1986, the p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s t h a t had l e d t o t h e s i g n i n g of the A c c o r d c l e a r l y remained i n command. However, the f a i l u r e t o t r a n s f e r C h a n d i g a r h t o P u n j a b began t o undermine t h e i r c r e d i b i l i t y . A k a l i f a c t i o n a l i s m had an immediate e f f e c t on t h e r e c e p t i o n of the A c c o r d . W h i l e the moderates h a i l e d i t , more out s p o k e n f a c t i o n a l l e a d e r s such as B a d a l and Tohra r e j e c t e d i t i n p r i v a t e (Kapur, 1985:298). P u b l i c l y , however, t h e y gave i t lukewarm s u p p o r t . The U n i t e d A k a l i D a l , of c o u r s e , l a b e l l e d i t a t o t a l " s e l l - o u t " . An i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n m o d e r a t i n g the main A k a l i l e a d e r s ' v i e w s , however, was R a j i v ' s announcement of August 18 t h a t an e l e c t i o n would be c a r r i e d out i n the Punjab i n September. In f a c t , because p a r t y t i c k e t s were g i v e n t o d i f f e r e n t f a c t i o n s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r s t r e n g t h , a l l wanted a p i e c e of the p i e . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , two days a f t e r t h i s announcement, B a d a l and Tohra met w i t h Sant Longowal and were r e c o n c i l e d w i t h h i s l e a d e r s h i p ( I n d i a Today, September 15, 1985:12). B a d a l , a former C h i e f M i n i s t e r , knew the b e n e f i t s of b e i n g i n o f f i c e and T o h r a , w i t h t h e e l e c t i o n s f o r t h e SGPC p r e s i d e n c y a p p r o a c h i n g i n November, c o u l d not a n t a g o n i z e t o p A k a l i l e a d e r s (Times, August 4, 1985). As can be s e e n , i m p o r t a n t groups i n the A k a l i camp t h a t had been i g n o r e d d u r i n g the b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n , namely th e B a d a l and Tohra f a c t i o n s , k e p t a, low p r o f i l e w h i l e t h e y w a i t e d t o see what t h e y would get from t h e A c c o r d . I t was o n l y a m a t t e r of t i m e b e f o r e t h e y c o u l d r e j e c t a s e t t l e m e n t from which t h e y had been so i g n o m i n i o u s l y e x c l u d e d . The r a d i c a l s were d e s p e r a t e t o stem th e moderates' v i c t o r i e s . The same day t h a t Longowal met B a d a l and Tohra t o i r o n out t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s , he was s h o t dead by S i k h t e r r o r i s t s . T h i s was t o have an i m p o r t a n t e f f e c t on f u t u r e developments as Longowal had become the most r e s p e c t e d and. p o p u l a r S i k h l e a d e r . His. s u c c e s s o r , S.S. B a r n a l a , a former Union m i n i s t e r f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , was a c l e v e r p o l i t i c i a n but l a c k e d t h e g r a s s - r o o t s s u p p o r t the Sant had. B a r n a l a was a l o n g - t i m e A k a l i and had been the g e n e r a l s e c r e t a r y of the w o r k i n g committee t h a t d r a f t e d t h e Anandpur S a h i b R e s o l u t i o n of 1973. On t h e c e n t r a l government s i d e , R a j i v Gandhi t r i e d t o keep d i s s e n t i n g v o i c e s a t bay. I n the p a r t i c u l a r case of B h a j a n L a i , t h e v o c a l c h i e f m i n i s t e r of Haryana, R a j i v o r d e r e d an i n q u i r y t o l o o k i n t o a l l e g a t i o n s of c o r r u p t i o n a g a i n s t him. The t i m i n g of t h i s i n q u i r y was not c o i n c i d e n t a l , but meant t o s e a l h i s l i p s f o r the time b e i n g ( I n d i a Today, September 30, 1985:40). The c h i e f m i n i s t e r of R a j a s t h a n , H a r i d e o J o s h i , who was c o n c e r n e d about the water i s s u e , was "persuaded" t h a t the A c c o r d would not be h a r m f u l 61 t o h i s s t a t e ( I n d i a Today, August 15, 1985:15). In e f f e c t , R a j i v was u s i n g h i s power t o g a i n a c c e p t a n c e f o r the A c c o r d . The e l e c t i o n s of September 25, 1985 were the c l e a r e s t endorsement t h e A c c o r d c o u l d have had i n P u n j a b . T h i s e l e c t i o n , w h i c h was b o y c o t t e d by the U n i t e d A k a l i D a l , f e a t u r e d one of the h i g h e s t v o t e r t u r n o u t s ever r e c o r d e d i n t h e P u n j a b : 66.54% ( I n d i a  Today, October 15, 1985:12). The r e s u l t s , however, d i d show t h a t the s t a t e had become i n c r e a s i n g l y p o l a r i z e d s i n c e t h e 1980 e l e c t i o n s . For the f i r s t t i m e , the A k a l i s had won a c l e a r m a j o r i t y . With 38.5% of t h e v o t e t h e y bagged 73 s e a t s , i n c o n t r a s t t o o n l y 32 s e a t s and 37.7% of the v o t e f o r the Congress p a r t y , a dr o p of over 10% s i n c e 1980 (Narang, 1986:131). U n d o u b t e d l y , the a t t a c k on the Golden Temple i n June 1984 had a l i e n a t e d many S i k h s . A l s o , ^ S i k h s v o t e d f o r t h e A k a l i D a l as i t had been t h i s p a r t y t h a t was p e r c e i v e d as h a v i n g s e t t l e d t h e i r g r i e v a n c e s . S i g n i f i c a n t l y , t he A k a l i s o n l y gave t i c k e t s t o c a n d i d a t e s t h a t p l e d g e d t o s u p p o r t the Punjab A c c o r d (Narang, 1986:167). F o l l o w i n g t h e e l e c t i o n s , f a c t i o n a l s t r u g g l e s i n the A k a l i D a l r e s u r f a c e d . The i s s u e of the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of each f a c t i o n i n t h e government l e d t o a. d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h B a d a l , and he and h i s s u p p o r t e r s r e f u s e d t o s i t i n the m i n i s t r y (Kapur, 1986:248). Appointment t o m i n i s t r i e s and o t h e r p o l i t i c a l p o s i t i o n s i n A k a l i governments had alw a y s been done a c c o r d i n g t o the r e l a t i v e power of., each f a c t i o n , but d i s p u t e s over how t o measure t h i s power o f t e n l e d t o c o n f l i c t s . Moreover, the accommodation of s e v e r a l r a d i c a l l e a d e r s was sought i n o r d e r t o c u r b t h e i r b e l l i g e r e n c y . As a r e s u l t , S u k h j i n d e r S i n g h , a m i l i t a n t A k a l i , was made 62 E d u c a t i o n M i n i s t e r . T h i s made the p r o s p e c t s of d i v i s i o n s i n the government p a r t i c u l a r l y dangerous. T o h r a , i n t u r n , was l o o k i n g f o r a way t o a c q u i r e c e n t e r - s t a g e a t t e n t i o n b e f o r e the November e l e c t i o n s f o r the SGPC p r e s i d e n c y . To do t h i s , he announced t h a t the A k a l T a k h t , the main a d m i n i s t r a t i v e b u i l d i n g i n the Golden Temple, d e s t r o y e d by t h e army i n June 1984 and t h e n r e c o n s t r u c t e d by New D e l h i , would have t o be d e m o l i s h e d and r e b u i l t by S i k h v o l u n t e e r s (kar sewa) ( P u r i , 1985:1682). At f i r s t t h i s was p e r c e i v e d as a minor i r r i t a n t , but t h e f a i l u r e t o t r a n s f e r C h a n d i g a r h t o P u n j a b , which was supposed t o o c c u r a t t h a t t i m e , made the i s s u e e x p l o s i v e . Tohra's move was so p o p u l a r t h a t i t was a major f a c t o r i n h i s v i c t o r y i n the SGPC e l e c t i o n i n l a t e November. Now, w i t h h i s power base c o n s o l i d a t e d , Tohra c o u l d assume a p o w e r f u l r o l e i n Punjab p o l i t i c s . He was no l o n g e r t h e weak l e a d e r of a few months e a r l i e r and he c o u l d a t t e m p t t o o u t b i d B a r n a l a as a way t o g a i n even more s u p p o r t . Another s i g n i f i c a n t e v ent i n l a t e 1985 was t h e work of t h e Mathew Commission. J u s t i c e Mathew was t h e man put i n charge of d e t e r m i n i n g Haryana's t e r r i t o r i a l c o m p ensation i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the t r a n s f e r of C h a n d i g a r h t o P u n j a b on J a n u a r y 26, 1986. A p r o b l e m o c c u r r e d when, t h e Commission's terms of r e f e r e n c e were 1 p u b l i s h e d , as t h e s e had been a l t e r e d s i n c e J u l y 24, 1985. R a j i v a p o l o g i z e d f o r t h e m i s t a k e but the damage had been done as i r r i t a n t s d e v e l o p e d between Punjab and Haryana ( I n d i a Today, October 31, 1985:10). Another i r r i t a n t was the c o n f l i c t over the amount of Haryana's c o m p e n s a t i o n . W h i l e Punjab o f f e r e d 13 v i l l a g e s , Haryana demanded 410 v i l l a g e s i n the Abohar and F a z i l k a a r e a ( T r i b u n e , November 23, 1985). Haryana's p o s i t i o n was l a r g e l y d i c t a t e d by i t s C h i e f M i n i s t e r ' s need t o be tough due t o t h e s t r o n g o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e A c c o r d i n t h a t s t a t e . Three o t h e r s e t s of e v e n t s took p l a c e i n l a t e 1985 t h a t foreshadowed problems f o r t h e A c c o r d i n t h e f u t u r e . One was the November 15 e x i t of A r j u n S i n g h as g o v e r n o r of P u n j a b . R a j i v had p r o m i s e d A r j u n S i n g h t h a t h i s a s s i g n m e n t was o n l y t e m p o r a r y and t h a t e v e n t u a l l y he c o u l d be g i v e n a c a b i n e t p o s t i n New D e l h i . He was r e p l a c e d by Shankar D a y a l Sharma, an e x p e r i e n c e d p o l i t i c i a n who had j u s t c o m pleted a p o s t i n g as g o v e r n o r of Andhra P r a d e s h . A l t h o u g h an a b l e man, he c o u l d not i n s p i r e i n t h e P u n j a b the c o n f i d e n c e t h a t A r j u n S i n g h had e n j o y e d . Another s e t of e v e n t s was t h e w o r k i n g , or non-working of s e v e r a l commissions c a l l e d f o r i n the A c c o r d . The M i s h r a Commission l o o k i n g i n t o the D e l h i r i o t s was h a v i n g problems w i t h i t s i n v e s t i g a t i o n as v i c t i m s were b e i n g h a r a s s e d and few dared, t o t e s t i f y . As w e l l , the p o l i c e were b e i n g u n c o o p e r a t i v e ( I n d i a Today, November 15, 1985:17). Moreover, two t r i b u n a l s were not s e t up a t a l l . These were th e ones t h a t were supposed t o d e a l w i t h P u n jab's boundary problems and w i t h the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of r i v e r w a t e r s . The w a t e r s i s s u e was becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y s i g n i f i c a n t as the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the S u t l e j - Y a m u n a L i n k c a n a l (SYL) was h a l t e d i n October due t o f a r m e r s ' a g i t a t i o n s i n the a r e a ( I n d i a Today, November 30, 1985:15). T h i s was of c r i t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e as water was Haryana's major c o n c e r n w i t h t h e Punjab A c c o r d and i t was the SYL C a n a l t h a t was t o t a k e water from Punjab's r i v e r s t o Haryana. The l a s t s e t of e v e n t s t o foreshadow problems f o r R a j i v Gandhi, o c c u r r e d i n December. Both i n s e v e r a l u n s u c c e s s f u l b y - e l e c t i o n s t h a t month, and. i n h i s performance a t the 100th a n n i v e r s a r y c e l e b r a t i o n of: 64 the Congress p a r t y , many p e r c e i v e d t h a t the prime m i n i s t e r d i d not have a c l e a r p o l i t i c a l program and t h a t he was l o s i n g h i s charisma ( I n d i a Today, January 15, 1986:19 and 55). As s t a t e d above, Punjab experienced an a t t i t u d e of anxious e x p e c t a t i o n d u r i n g l a t e 1985. The promised t r a n s f e r of Chandigarh was to be the f i r s t and most important item i n the Accord to be implemented. However, the t r a n s f e r d i d not take p l a c e . Numerous problems surrounded the d e l i b e r a t i o n s of J u s t i c e Mathew and impeded the s u c c e s s f u l completion of h i s t a s k . A l r e a d y noted was the problem of d e t e r m i n i n g the s i z e of Haryana's compensation. There a l s o was the problem of mapping out a t e r r i t o r y t h a t was both contiguous and H i n d i - s p e a k i n g . To determine H i n d i - s p e a k i n g a r e a s , Haryana wanted to use the 1961 census,, while Punjab advocated the use of census data taken i n 1971 or 1981. Moreover, Haryana claim e d the H i n d i - s p e a k i n g areas of Abohar and F a z i l k a but these were not c o n t i g u o u s . Mathew, t h e r e f o r e , was i n a s i t u a t i o n i n which not even the terms of r e f e r e n c e of h i s work were accepted by the two s t a t e s i n v o l v e d . In consequence, i n h i s r e p o r t r e l e a s e d January 25, he s t a t e d t h a t s i n c e Haryana c o u l d not be compensated, f o r the time being Chandigarh c o u l d not be t r a n s f e r r e d ( I n d i a Today, February 15, 1986:16). P o l i t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s on the p a r t of R a j i v may a l s o have i n t e r v e n e d , s i n c e Bhajan Lai. had warned the prime m i n i s t e r on January 13 t h a t a Congress r e v o l t i n Haryana was p o s s i b l e i f Chandigarh were t r a n s f e r r e d with n o t h i n g i n r e t u r n (Times, January 14, 1986). Whatever the case, t h i s was the f i r s t of many disappointments Punjab was to experience i n the next few months. 6 5 The n o n - t r a n s f e r of C h a n d i g a r h l e d t o w i d e s p r e a d d i s i l l u s i o n m e n t and a huge drop i n New D e l h i ' s c r e d i b i l i t y among the S i k h s . The same day t h a t J u s t i c e Mathew r e l e a s e d h i s r e p o r t , Tohra was t o b e g i n the SGPC kar sewa t o r e b u i l d the A k a l ^ T a k h t . However, s t r e n g t h e n e d by the Mathew v e r d i c t , r a d i c a l s and p r o -K h a l i s t a n i elements of t h e A l l - I n d i a S i k h S t u d e n t F e d e r a t i o n (AISSF) and of the U n i t e d A k a l i D a l , w r e s t e d the i n i t i a t i v e from the SGPC and took over t h e k a r sewa. Not o n l y t h a t , but t h e r a d i c a l s took over t h e Golden Temple complex and Tohra had no c h o i c e but t o f l e e ! ( I n d i a Today, F e b r u a r y 15, 1986:12-13). T h i s a c t e v e n t u a l l y l e d him t o be "persuaded" by B a r n a l a t o r e s i g n the SGPC p r e s i d e n c y . The r a d i c a l s ' s e i z u r e of the temple p l a c e d the B a r n a l a government i n a dilemma. I f i t l e f t the AISSF a l o n e t h i s would be seen as a s i g n of weakness, but i f i t s e n t the p o l i c e i n t o t h e temple t h i s would b r i n g r e m i n d e r s of O p e r a t i o n B l u e s t a r and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , would weaken B a r n a l a ' s b a s i s of s u p p o r t . The f a c t t h a t C h a n d i g a r h had not been t r a n s f e r r e d as p r o m i s e d had a l r e a d y l e f t B a r n a l a w i t h v e r y l i t t l e t o show f o r h i s f i r s t f o u r months i n o f f i c e . The p r o b l e m now was t h a t B a r n a l a c o u l d o n l y r e g a i n s u p p o r t i f : New D e l h i g r a n t e d him a; c o n c e s s i o n . But t h e c e n t e r was wary of g r a n t i n g P unjab a n y t h i n g s i n c e the B a r n a l a government seemed r e l u c t a n t t o c r i t i c i z e the r a d i c a l s . Moreover, Tohra now had a r e a l g r i e v a n c e a g a i n s t B a r n a l a as he had been f o r c e d t o r e s i g n t h e p r e s i d e n c y of t h e SGPC a f t e r f l e e i n g the Golden Temple i n l a t e J a n u a r y 1986. R a j i v a t t e m p t e d t o r e g a i n momentum f o r the r e s o l u t i o n of A k a l i g r i e v a n c e s by a p p o i n t i n g J u s t i c e B a l a k r i s h n a E r a d i on 66 J a n u a r y 25, 1986 t o head the t r i b u n a l l o o k i n g i n t o the r i v e r w a t e r s i s s u e . H i s j o b was t o d e t e r m i n e t h e amount of water t h a t f l o w e d t h r o u g h P u n j a b ' s t h r e e main r i v e r s -- the R a v i , the Beas, and the S u t l e j — and t o a l l o c a t e the water t o the s t a t e s of P u n j a b , Haryana, and R a j a s t h a n . However, the E r a d i Commission was s u b j e c t t o problems r i g h t from the s t a r t . F o r example, i t s terms of r e f e r e n c e had been a l t e r e d s i n c e the s i g n i n g of the A c c o r d and t h i s l e d t o c o n f u s i o n as t o e x a c t l y what water was t o be d i v i d e d among the t h r e e s t a t e s ( I n d i a Today, March 15, 1986:12-13). T h i s compounded a p r o b l e m a l r e a d y d e t e c t e d by the e d i t o r s of T r i b u n e , t h e d a i l y newspaper of C h a n d i g a r h , i n August 1985. They c o n c l u d e d t h a t "whether by a c c i d e n t or d e s i g n , c l a u s e 9 ( w a t e r s ) has been so worded as t o l e a v e enough scope f o r i n t e r e s t e d p a r t i e s t o i n t e r p r e t i t i n d i f f e r e n t ways t o s u i t t h e i r p a r t i s a n ends" (August 1, 1985). Another problem, s i m i l a r t o t h a t w i t h which J u s t i c e Mathew had t o d e a l , i n v o l v e d t h e compensation f o r Haryana. The. c o m p l e t i o n of the S u t l e j - Y a m u n a L i n k (SYL) c a n a l by August 15, 1986 was t o be a form of c o m p e n s a t i o n s i n c e t h e c a n a l was t o s u p p l y Haryana w i t h water from P u n j a b ' s r i v e r s . However, work on t h e c a n a l had h a l t e d i n October 1985. In e f f e c t , the a p p o i n t m e n t of E r a d i , w h i c h was supposed t o renew c o n f i d e n c e i n the Punjab A c c o r d , o n l y l e d t o more c o n f u s i o n and f e a r s t h a t New D e l h i was not s e r i o u s about i t s a t t e m p t t o s e t t l e the A k a l i g r i e v a n c e s . The c o n f u s i o n was u n f o r t u n a t e s i n c e more water was one of the main i s s u e s f o r which the r u r a l - b a s e d A k a l i D a l p a r t y had worked s i n c e the Green R e v o l u t i o n . 67 Another a t t e m p t t o r e s t o r e c o n f i d e n c e i n the A c c o r d was R a j i v ' s d e c l a r a t i o n t h a t C h a n d i g a r h would be t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e Punjab on June 21, 1986, and t h a t a new commission would be a p p o i n t e d t o d e t e r m i n e Haryana's c o m p e n s a t i o n . T h i s c o m m i s s i o n , headed by J u s t i c e E. V e n k a t a r a m i a h , was a p p o i n t e d A p r i l 2, and g i v e n o n l y a few weeks t o do i t s work i n o r d e r t o meet th e June 21 d e a d l i n e . Meanwhile, the months of March and A p r i l w i t n e s s e d the g r a d u a l r e t u r n of t e r r o r i s m t o the P u n j a b . The temple t a k e o v e r by t h e m i l i t a n t s and t h e a p p a r e n t u n w i l l i n g n e s s of the government t o s t o p them b o o s t e d the morale of the m i l i t a n t s . In many ways, t h e s i t u a t i o n r e s e m b l e d 1984 when e x t r e m i s t s had t a k e n over t h e Golden Temple and t e r r o r i s t s roamed i n t h e c i t i e s and r u r a l a r e a s . U n d o u b t e d l y , t h e f a i l u r e t o t r a n s f e r C h a n d i g a r h was seen as e v i d e n c e of; D e l h i ' s i n t r a n s i g e n c e and l e d many S i k h s t o g i v e t a c i t s u p p o r t t o p r o - K h a l i s t a n i s and t o t h e U n i t e d A k a l i D a l . As a r e s u l t of the r i s e i n t e r r o r i s m , J u l i o R i b e i r o , I n d i a ' s " s u p e r -cop", as the p r e s s d e s c r i b e d him, was t r a n s f e r r e d t o the P u n j a b t o head the s t a t e p o l i c e i n m i d - A p r i l . R i b e i r o was a s s i g n e d t o t h e P u n j a b a t B a r n a l a ' s i n s i s t e n c e t o show d e t e r m i n a t i o n on t h e p a r t of: the a u t h o r i t i e s t o q u e l l t e r r o r i s m ( I n d i a Today, A p r i l 30, 1986:35). However, R i b e i r o c o u l d not d e t e r t e r r o r i s m and e v e n t u a l l y caused a major p o l i t i c a l c r i s i s f o r the B a r n a l a government. P u n j a b ' s b a p t i s m of f i r e a t t h e hands of t h e new p o l i c e c h i e f was O p e r a t i o n S e a r c h . O p e r a t i o n S e a r c h was the p o l i c e a c t i o n a t the Golden Temple on A p r i l 30, 1986. Designed t o c a p t u r e AISSF t e r r o r i s t s a l l e g e d l y l i v i n g w i t h i n i t s p r e m i s e s , 68 the a c t i o n was t r i g g e r e d by a d e c l a r a t i o n of the b i r t h of K h a l i s t a n . The p o l i c e a c t i o n f a i l e d t o c a p t u r e any i m p o r t a n t e x t r e m i s t s but i t caused a s p l i t i n the r u l i n g A k a l i D a l p a r t y . B a r n a l a had been c a r e f u l not t o t e l l anyone i n the p a r t y of the " a c t i o n " , f e a r i n g t h a t some of i t s more r a d i c a l elements would l e a k the i n f o r m a t i o n o u t . However, s e n i o r A k a l i l e a d e r s such as B a d a l , c o n s c i o u s of t h e i r a l r e a d y d i m i n i s h i n g i n f l u e n c e i n t h e government, i n t e r p r e t e d B a r n a l a ' s s i l e n c e as an example of the g r o w i n g p e r s o n a l i z a t i o n of power by the c h i e f m i n i s t e r . In a d d i t i o n , MLA's who had grown d i s a p p o i n t e d w i t h h i s government f o l l o w i n g the J a n u a r y e v e n t s , saw t h i s as an o p p o r t u n i t y . C o n s e q u e n t l y , 27 of t h e 73 A k a l i MLA's formed a s e p a r a t e group i n the Assembly and began o p p o s i n g B a r n a l a . B a d a l was d e l i g h t e d t o l e a d them w h i l e T o h r a , h u m i l i a t e d by B a r n a l a when he was f o r c e d t o r e s i g n the p r e s i d e n c y of the SGPC, h a p p i l y gave them h i s s u p p o r t ( I n d i a Today, May 31, 1986:10). B a r n a l a k e p t t h e s u p p o r t of a m a j o r i t y of t h e Assembly, but the e f f e c t s of t h e o p p o s i t i o n of B a d a l and Tohra as w e l l as of the a c t i o n on the temple were immeasurable. From t h i s p o i n t onwards, B a r n a l a not o n l y had t o c o n f r o n t New D e l h i , but a l s o an o p p o s i n g group of A k a l i s l e d by two of t h e most r e s o u r c e f u l p o l i t i c i a n s i n t h e P u n j a b . I n e f f e c t , h i s power base was g r a d u a l l y s h r i n k i n g . Once a g a i n , R a j i v sought t o r e s t o r e c o n f i d e n c e i n the A c c o r d by a c o m b i n a t i o n of i n i t i a t i v e s . F i r s t , he asked Bhajan L a i t o s t e p down from h i s p o s t of c h i e f m i n i s t e r of Haryana on June 5; he had been t o o much of a h i n d r a n c e i n the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the A c c o r d . H i s s u c c e s s o r , B a n s i L a i , appeared t o be more c o n c i l i a t o r y ( I n d i a Today, June 30, 1986:16). However, i t was 69 not o n l y the government of Haryana, but a l s o i t s p e o p l e i n g e n e r a l who opposed, th e A c c o r d . Second, R a j i v t i m e d t h i s change of o f f i c e w i t h the r e l e a s e o f ' the r e p o r t by J u s t i c e V e n k a t a r a m i a h . The J u s t i c e had been asked t o be s p e c i f i c about w h i c h a r e a s s h o u l d go t o Haryana i n exchange f o r C h a n d i g a r h . T h i s i s s u e was c r i t i c a l as c e n t r a l i n t e l l i g e n c e o f f i c e r s had warned of a massive exodus from Congress i f the r e p o r t d i d not s a t i s f y Haryana ( T r i b u n e , May 3, 1986). U n f o r t u n a t e l y , when Ve n k a t a r a m i a h r e l e a s e d h i s r e p o r t on June 12, he had o n l y p a r t i a l l y f u l f i l l e d h i s j o b . He had d e t e r m i n e d t h a t 70,000 a c r e s s h o u l d go t o Haryana, but o n l y 45,000 a c r e s had been i d e n t i f i e d as p o s s i b l e f o r t r a n s f e r due t o the o p p o s i t i o n of the P u n j a b government ( I n d i a Today, June 30, 1986:18). In e f f e c t , t h e Commission had f a i l e d t o s e t t l e the d e a d l o c k between Punjab and Haryana. R a j i v , i n an e f f o r t t o keep th e momentum of the t r a n s f e r g o i n g , a p p o i n t e d a committee headed by J u s t i c e D.A. D e s a i t o r e p o r t w i t h i n 18 hours on the 70,000 a c r e s t o be t r a n s f e r r e d t o Haryana. B a r n a l a , by now under heavy p r e s s u r e from the more v o c a l d i s s i d e n t A k a l i D a l and from th e i n c r e a s i n g l y p o p u l a r U n i t e d A k a l i s , had no c h o i c e but t o r e p u d i a t e the D e s a i Committee f o r i t s a r b i t r a r y c h a r a c t e r . By mid-1986, a l a r g e number of A k a l i s had opted f o r t o t a l c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h New D e l h i , and B a r n a l a c o u l d not appear t o be t h e c e n t e r ' s s t o o g e . He f e a r e d t h a t , i f he p l a y e d New D e l h i ' s game, he would l o s e s u p p o r t among the S i k h s i n g e n e r a l as w e l l as t h e a l l e g i a n c e of even more MLA's i n the s t a t e assembly. Many S i k h s d i d not v i e w the t r a n s f e r of 70,000 a c r e s t o Haryana as a h i g h p r i c e t o pay f o r C h a n d i g a r h , but the 70 appointment of a t h i r d t r i b u n a l t o s e t t l e t h e i s s u e a l i e n a t e d S i k h o p i n i o n . M a t t e r s had been made worse when i t s terms of r e f e r e n c e were p u b l i s h e d s i n c e no mention was made t h a t the a r e a had t o be H i n d i - s p e a k i n g ( T r i b u n e , June 21, 198G). The r e j e c t i o n of the D e s a i Committee meant, however, t h a t the t r a n s f e r of C h a n d i g a r h was postponed i n d e f i n i t e l y ( T r i b u n e , J u l y 15, 1986). The P unjab government d i d not s u bmit i t s c l a i m s t o i t , and t h e r e f o r e , D e s a i c o u l d never f u l f i l l h i s t a s k . As can be s e e n , R a j i v s t i l l a ppeared t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e a u t h o r i t y by mid-1986, as h i s p o l i t i c a l i n i t i a t i v e s d e m o n s t r a t e . However, B a r n a l a had l o s t much of the s u p p o r t he had had o n l y a few months e a r l i e r . Once a g a i n , the p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n t h e P u njab was f l u i d and t h i s made the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the A k a l i s 1 p a r t of the q u i d pro quo, namely communal harmony and p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y , h a r d t o a t t a i n . The f a i l u r e t o s e t t l e t h e g r i e v a n c e s p r o v i d e s e v i d e n c e of what our t h e o r y d e s c r i b e s as e x a g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s by t h e b a r g a i n i n g p a r t i c i p a n t s of t h e i r a b i l i t y t o a c h i e v e c e r t a i n g o a l s . The consequence o f the above f o r B a r n a l a was t h a t he was s t u c k between New D e l h i and the more r a d i c a l A k a l i s and was d e v e l o p i n g c o n f l i c t s w i t h b o t h . A r a t h e r extreme e x p r e s s i o n of a n t i - B a r n a l a s e n t i m e n t was B a d a l ' s comment i n l a t e J u l y t h a t , B a r n a l a i s a t r a i t o r . He i s a t y r a n t worse th a n the Moghuls. Even Mrs. Gandhi's d e s p o t i c regime p a l e s b e f o r e h i s misdeeds. At t h e b e hest of the Centex he i s f i n i s h i n g the S i k h y o u t h and a t t a c k i n g the S i k h h o l y s h r i n e s . N e i t h e r God nor S i k h s s h a l l pardon him ( I n d i a  Today, J u l y 31, 1986:15). 71. B a r n a l a a l s o had c o n f l i c t s w i t h New D e l h i , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h the Home M i n i s t e r , Buta S i n g h . A p p o i n t e d Home M i n i s t e r i n March 1986, Buta S i n g h was a lower c a s t e S i k h who never got a l o n g w i t h B a r n a l a (Times, August 27, 1986). Two problems were a t the c r u x of t h e i r r i v a l r y . One was the i s s u e of New D e l h i ' s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the problems of i m p l e m e n t i n g the A c c o r d . B a r n a l a f e l t t h e C e n t e r was i n t r a n s i g e n t , but. Buta argued t h a t New D e l h i had implemented seven of the e l e v e n p a r a g r a p h s of the A c c o r d ( T r i b u n e , J u l y 23, 1986). I n t h e l i g h t of the e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d , B uta's comments show h i s c o n c e r n f o r form and not s u b s t a n c e . The most i m p o r t a n t p o i n t of c o n f l i c t was over the p r e r o g a t i v e s of t h e two men. B a r n a l a was d e t e r m i n e d t o keep d i r e c t c o n t r o l of the Punjab p o l i c e w h i l e Buta f e l t t h a t the "law and o r d e r " s i t u a t i o n i n t h e s t a t e r e q u i r e d d i r e c t s u p e r v i s i o n f r om New D e l h i (Times, September 9, 1986). I n any c a s e , the d i a l o g u e t h a t had d e v e l o p e d between Punjab and New D e l h i i n l a t e -1985 was c l e a r l y gone by l a t e - 1 9 8 6 . I n f a c t , t he A c c o r d was l o s i n g momentum a l t o g e t h e r by l a t e 1986. Two examples h e l p t o i l l u s t r a t e t h i s . Both r e l a t e t o t h e work of Commissions e s t a b l i s h e d by D e l h i t o implement t h e A c c o r d . The: E r a d i Commission was g i v e n a t h r e e month e x t e n s i o n t o submit i t s r e p o r t , t h u s d e l a y i n g i t u n t i l t he new ye a r ( T r i b u n e , September 18, 1986). A l s o , a l t h o u g h the M i s h r a R e p o r t was s u b m i t t e d i n ti m e ( m i d - A u g u s t ) , i t was not r e l e a s e d by t h e government u n t i l F e b r u a r y 1987. The f a c t was t h a t by l a t e 1986 the A c c o r d was s t a l l e d . New D e l h i seemed t o be w a i t i n g f o r a p o t e n t i a l r e a s s e r t i o n of B a r n a l a i n the Punjab f o l l o w i n g t he SGPC e l e c t i o n s of late-November. I f h i s c a n d i d a t e won, t h i s would be 72 an endorsement of h i s p o l i c i e s . However, the C e n t e r d i d not u n d e r s t a n d t h a t B a r n a l a c o u l d o n l y win t h e s e e l e c t i o n s i f he had something t o show f o r h i s e f f o r t s , and a f t e r f i f t e e n months i n o f f i c e he had v e r y l i t t l e t o show. The e d i t o r i a l board of the Times of I n d i a was c o r r e c t when i t s t a t e d t h a t the C e n t e r was p u t t i n g a l l of i t s eggs i n B a r n a l a ' s b a s k e t f o r the November 30 e l e c t i o n s f o r the p r e s i d e n c y of t h e SGPC (Times, November 20, 1986). However, the e l e c t i o n s d i d not go w e l l f o r B a r n a l a and New D e l h i . The s p l i n t e r A k a l i D a i ' s c a n d i d a t e , who not s u r p r i s i n g l y was G.S. T o h r a , won the c o n t e s t . B a r n a l a ' s c a n d i d a t e o n l y r e c e i v e d f i f t y - e i g h t v o t e s a g a i n s t Tohra's s e v e n t y - f o u r ( T r i b u n e , December 1, 1987). The SGPC, a l t h o u g h s t r i c t l y s p e a k i n g not a p o l i t i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n , i s of c r i t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e i n S i k h p o l i t i c s f o r i t s e r v e s as the barometer of the community. No A k a l i l e a d e r can g e t v e r y f a r w i t h o u t i t s s u p p o r t . By h a v i n g l o s t t h e s e e l e c t i o n s , B a r n a l a was seen as l a c k i n g l e g i t i m a c y as a S i k h l e a d e r . Moreover, h i s d e f e a t r e p r e s e n t e d t h e d i s a p p r o v a l of h i s p o l i c i e s by a m a j o r i t y of t h e community. The c h i e f m i n i s t e r had a l r e a d y l o s t the i n i t i a t i v e , and t h e 27 d i s s i d e n t A k a l i s i n t h e s t a t e Assembly appeared r e a d y t o l a u n c h a campaign a g a i n s t B a r n a l a . However, the C e n t e r would not a l l o w t h i s as became o b v i o u s i n a few d a y s . The c l e a r e s t i n d i c a t i o n of New D e l h i ' s o p p o s i t i o n t o l e t t i n g B a d a l ' s d i s s i d e n t A k a l i D a l and Tohra p l a y a r o l e i n the P u n j a b developments was t h e i r imprisonment on December 2. The two men were a r r e s t e d on t h e charge of g i v i n g "cover and r e s p e c t a b i l i t y t o the a c t i v i t i e s of e x t r e m i s t s and t e r r o r i s t s " (Times, December 3, 1986). They remained i n p r i s o n f o r the r e s t of B a r n a l a ' s 73 t e n u r e as c h i e f m i n i s t e r . New D e l h i was c l e a r l y t r y i n g t o prop up B a r n a l a , but t h e c h i e f m i n i s t e r had l i t t l e s u p p o r t l e f t i n t h e s t a t e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , as 1987 began, the c e n t e r was d e p ending on a man who r e p r e s e n t e d a c o n f i g u r a t i o n of p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s t h a t d i d not e x i s t anymore. The f a i l u r e t o u n d e r s t a n d t h i s , or s i m p l y t h e l a c k of any a l t e r n a t i v e s , l e d t o t h e t o t a l demise of t h e A c c o r d i n the f i r s t h a l f of 1987. B a r n a l a ' s i n d e c i s i v e n e s s and i s o l a t i o n were c l e a r l y d i s p l a y e d i n e a r l y J a n u a r y 1987. H a v i n g meekly t h r e a t e n e d a morcha ( a g i t a t i o n ) i f t h e l e t t e r and s p i r i t of t h e A c c o r d were not implemented, he l a t e r c a l l e d i t o f f a f t e r a vague promise by the c e n t e r t o implement the A c c o r d (Times, J a n u a r y 14,. 1987). In consequence, he angered b o t h New D e l h i and the m i l i t a n t A k a l i s and d i d not p l e a s e anyone! Another i n s t a n c e of B a r n a l a ' s i s o l a t i o n was h i s r e a c t i o n t o the t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of the U n i t e d A k a l i D a l i n t o t h e U n i f i e d A k a l i D a l , a move d e s i g n e d t o u n i t e a l l A k a l i f a c t i o n s opposed t o New D e l h i . B a r n a l a r e f u s e d t o j o i n i t - f o l l o w i n g Longowal's example i n May 1985 - but was excommunicated by the h i g h p r i e s t s of the Golden Temple f o r t h i s a c t i o n i n m i d - F e b r u a r y . The U n i f i e d A k a l i s r e p r e s e n t e d t h o s e S i k h s who opposed b o t h B a r n a l a and the C e n t e r . The r e f u s a l of t h e government t o r e l e a s e the E r a d i R e p o r t a f t e r i t was s u b m i t t e d i n m i d - J a n u a r y , and the r e l e a s e of the M i s h r a R e p o r t on F e b r u a r y 23, d i d not h e l p B a r n a l a e i t h e r . The M i s h r a R e p o r t v a g u e l y blamed the p o l i c e f o r the D e l h i r i o t s but s h i r k e d i t s f u l l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y by recommending two committees t o f i n i s h the t a s k i t had begun ( I n d i a Today, August 31, 1987:39). As w e l l , i t s t a t e d t h a t the Congress p a r t y had not p l a y e d a 74 s u b s t a n t i a l r o l e i n the r i o t s , t h u s c o n t r a d i c t i n g numerous o t h e r r e p o r t s . T h i s a p p a r e n t "whitewash" was a h u m i l i a t i o n t o t h e S i k h s s i n c e i t i n d i c a t e d the g u i l t y would never be p u n i s h e d a d e q u a t e l y . Much of t h e C e n t e r ' s i n d e c i s i v e n e s s i n i t s d e a l i n g s w i t h P u n j a b , as a l r e a d y s t a t e d , had t o do w i t h the f a i l u r e on the p a r t of t h e A k a l i government t o m a i n t a i n law and o r d e r as t h e i r s i d e of the b a r g a i n . However, a n o t h e r f a c t o r of e q u a l i m p o r t a n c e t h a t came t o t h e f o r e d u r i n g 1987 was R a j i v ' s weakness as a prime m i n i s t e r . H i s g l i t t e r was f a d i n g . H i s problems were of two k i n d s ; some were r e l a t e d t o e l e c t o r a l l o s s e s w h i l e o t h e r s were problems w i t h i n the government i t s e l f . R a j i v ' s e l e c t o r a l d e f e a t s s i n c e e a r l y 1985 had become a b i g t h r e a t t o t h e Congress p a r t y . Congress had gone from r u l i n g e i g h t e e n s t a t e s t o r u l i n g o n l y t w e l v e . As w e l l , f r om A p r i l 1987, f o r t h e f i r s t , t i m e s i n c e independence, the Congress d i d not form a government i n any of the f o u r s o u t h e r n s t a t e s . L a r g e chunks of e a s t e r n I n d i a had a l s o f a l l e n t o o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s . The f e a r was t h a t the Congress was becoming a H i n d i - h e a r t l a n d p a r t y o n l y ( I n d i a Today, A p r i l 15, 1987:32). R a j i v ' s d e c l i n e a t t h e s t a t e l e v e l was r e c e i v e d g l e e f u l l y by r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s ; a B i h a r i p o l i t i c i a n was quoted as s a y i n g t h a t " t h i s i s e x a c t l y what we wanted - a c h a s t e n e d R a j i v Gandhi who w i l l be f o r c e d t o l i s t e n t o us" (Times, A p r i l 22, 1986) . R a j i v ' s problems w i t h i n the government r e v o l v e d around h i s d e c l i n i n g a u t h o r i t y . R a j i v was not o n l y h a v i n g a s t r u g g l e w i t h I n d i a ' s p r e s i d e n t over the d i v i s i o n s of powers between them ( I n d i a Today, F e b r u a r y 28, 1987:16-17), but a l s o w i t h d i f f e r e n t 75 members of h i s government. The most i m p o r t a n t example of t h i s was R a j i v ' s c o n f l i c t w i t h V.P. S i n g h i n March and A p r i l 1987. S i n g h had been F i n a n c e M i n i s t e r u n t i l J a n u a r y and i n h i s a t t e m p t t o c u r b c o r r u p t i o n had r e c r u i t e d the American F a i r f a x I n v e s t i g a t i o n Agency. However, he d i d not i n f o r m o t h e r Congress l e a d e r s or the prime m i n i s t e r ( I n d i a Today, A p r i l 30, 1987:11-1 9 ) . T h i s o u t r a g e d s e n i o r Congressmen and e v e n t u a l l y l e d t o S i n g h ' s r e s i g n a t i o n and e x p u l s i o n from the p a r t y . However, h i s removal seemed l i k e an a t t e m p t t o c o v e r up c o r r u p t i o n . A n o t h e r p r o b l e m i n v o l v e d a l l e g e d p a y o f f s i n a d e f e n s e c o n t r a c t between the I n d i a n government and the B o f o r s arms f a c t o r y of Sweden ( I n d i a Today, May 15, 1987:12). The p a y o f f s i s s u e was l e a k e d t o the p r e s s and e v e n t u a l l y shook t o i t s f o u n d a t i o n s R a j i v ' s image of i n c o r r u p t i b i l i t y . C o n s i d e r i n g the e x t e n t of t h e s e p r o b l e m s , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t R a j i v Gandhi c o u l d not g i v e the P u n j a b h i s u n d i v i d e d a t t e n t i o n d u r i n g the f i r s t h a l f of 1987. A n other a s p e c t of R a j i v ' s d e c l i n i n g a u t h o r i t y was the r e t u r n of o l d Congress p o l i t i c i a n s who had been d i s p l a c e d by R a j i v ' s younger a i d e s i n e a r l y 1985. By May 1987, R a j i v ' s s e t of a d v i s o r s was b a s i c a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o l d s t y l e m a n i p u l a t i o n and w h e e l i n g and d e a l i n g ( I n d i a Today, May 15, 1987:25). I n consequence, the t e c h n o c r a t s who had h e l p e d i n r e a c h i n g the P u njab A c c o r d had g i v e n way t o the o l d t a c t i c i a n s who, i n many ways, e x a c e r b a t e d t e n s i o n s i n Punjab i n t h e e a r l y 1980's by u s i n g p o l i t i c a l m a n i p u l a t i o n i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n e l e c t o r a l v i c t o r i e s . R a j i v had l e a r n e d the l e s s o n t h a t t o c o n t r o l New D e l h i you need t o c o n t r o l the s t a t e s . T h i s had become i n c r e a s i n g l y important-a f t e r May 5 when an e l e c t i o n was c a l l e d f o r June 17, 1987 i n t h e 76 s t a t e of Haryana. T h i s e l e c t i o n was s i g n i f i c a n t because Haryana i s p a r t of the H i n d i - s p e a k i n g h e a r t l a n d , the a r e a of n o r t h I n d i a t h a t i s t h e b a s t i o n of t h e Congress p a r t y . A d e f e a t i n t h a t s t a t e would be c a t a s t r o p h i c i n v i e w of the a l r e a d y e x t e n s i v e l o s s e s i n t h e s o u t h and e a s t of the c o u n t r y and because of the p r e c e d e n t i t would s e t i n t h e n o r t h . I t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h e n , t h a t t h e P unjab A c c o r d was s h e l v e d i n mid-May 1987 i n o r d e r t o d e v o t e f u l l a t t e n t i o n t o the Haryana e l e c t i o n . S i m p l y s t a t e d , the P unjab A c c o r d was q u i e t l y abandoned a f t e r the B a r n a l a government had been r e p l a c e d by P r e s i d e n t ' s R u l e on May 12. For a l l i n t e n t s and p u r p o s e s , th e A c c o r d was a l r e a d y dead, but t h i s was the coup de g r a c e . By May, the c e n t r a l government's argument was t h a t e x t r e m i s m was u n c o n t r o l l a b l e and t h a t the t e r r o r i s t s were r u n n i n g a p a r a l l e l government. For t h i s r e a s o n , P r e s i d e n t ' s R u l e must be e s t a b l i s h e d t o r e s t o r e p e o p l e ' s c o n f i d e n c e ( I n d i a Today, May 31, 1987:14-15). However, i t was c l e a r t h a t t h e Haryana e l e c t i o n was R a j i v ' s main c o n c e r n . The f a c t t h a t the S u t l e j - Y a m u n a L i n k c a n a l ' s c o n s t r u c t i o n was speeded up showed t h a t Haryana's i n t e r e s t s were b e i n g promoted. Another m o t i v a t i o n was t h e f e a r t h a t the twenty-two b y - e l e c t i o n s t o be c a r r i e d out i n May and June i n Punjab would a l l o w m i l i t a n t A k a l i s t o be e l e c t e d t o the s t a t e a s s embly (Times, May 9, 1987). P r e s i d e n t ' s Rule would p r e v e n t any e l e c t i o n s from b e i n g c a r r i e d o u t . As can be seen,, the u n p r e d i c t a b l e and v o l a t i l e P u njab was s a c r i f i c e d because of t h e f e a r of a. Congress d e f e a t i n Haryana. The f e a r of a d e f e a t i n Haryana was most c l e a r l y seen i n the way New D e l h i d e a l t w i t h , t h e E r a d i R e p o r t . J u s t i c e E r a d i had 7 7 s u b m i t t e d h i s r e p o r t i n J a n u a r y but t h e government o n l y r e l e a s e d i t a few weeks b e f o r e the Haryana e l e c t i o n i n o r d e r t o h e l p the Congress ( T r i b u n e , May 13, 1987). T h e o r e t i c a l l y , the E r a d i R e p o r t ' s v e r d i c t a l l o c a t e d more wat e r s t o b o t h Punjab and Haryana t h a n any p r e v i o u s award due t o the R e p o r t ' s assessment of a v a i l a b l e water ( T r i b u n e , May 21, 1987). But l o o k i n g a t i t p r a c t i c a l l y , i t became c l e a r t h a t P u n j ab's water s u p p l y would be reduced w h i l e Haryana's would be d o u b l e d ( I n d i a Today, June 15, 1987:22). T h i s i s the r e s u l t of t e c h n i c a l problems t h a t make i t i m p o s s i b l e f o r Punjab t o e x p l o i t a l l the water a l l o c a t e d t o i t . I r o n i c a l l y , t he Congress p a r t y was r o u t e d i n Haryana d u r i n g the June 17 e l e c t i o n s . W h i l e Congress won f i v e s e a t s , the o p p o s i t i o n , u n i t e d i n the Haryana Sangharsh S a m i t i , c a p t u r e d s e v e n t y - t h r e e s e a t s ( T r i b u n e , June 20, 1987). The e l e c t i o n of Devi. L a i as c h i e f m i n i s t e r put the l a s t n a i l i n t h e A c c o r d ' s c o f f i n as he had b l u n t l y s t a t e d s i n c e J u l y 1985 t h a t he was opposed t o i t , and t h a t no c o n c e s s i o n s c o u l d be made on t h e Punjab i s s u e w i t h o u t Haryana's c o n s e n t . C l e a r l y , the f a i l u r e t o r e s o l v e t h e Punjab c r i s i s had c o s t the Congress d e a r l y , s i n c e Haryana was l o s t and the A c c o r d was dead. FINAL REMARKS The e v e n t s t h a t l e d t o t h e demise of t h e Punjab A c c o r d i n d i c a t e t h a t a change i n the c o n f i g u r a t i o n of p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s had t a k e n p l a c e i n Punjab and New D e l h i d u r i n g the p e r i o d from J u l y 1985 t o mid-1987. In f a c t , the p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g t h a t l e d t o the A c c o r d was p r o b l e m a t i c i n s e v e r a l ways and thus p l a y e d a key r o l e i n c h a n g i n g the b a l a n c e of p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s a f t e r mid-78 1985. Four major problems can be i d e n t i f i e d . F i r s t , b o t h R a j i v Gandhi and Sant Longowal had an e x a g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n of t h e i r power and of t h e i r a b i l i t y t o l e a d the s e t t l e m e n t t o a happy c o n c l u s i o n . By 1987, R a j i v had proven unable t o d e a l , not o n l y w i t h the Punjab c r i s i s , but a l s o w i t h problems i n the r e s t of I n d i a and w i t h i n t h e government i t s e l f . H i s e l e c t o r a l r e c o r d was d i s m a l and h i s p o p u l a r i t y was s a g g i n g . Longowal was s h o t dead a month a f t e r the s i g n i n g of t h e A c c o r d , but i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t he would have been a b l e t o d e a l w i t h the i s s u e s any d i f f e r e n t l y t h a n B a r n a l a . D i s s e n s i o n w i t h i n t h e A k a l i camp was j u s t t o o g r e a t . Second, r e l e v a n t p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s t h a t were i g n o r e d d u r i n g the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g g a i n e d g r e a t e r prominence a f t e r J u l y 1985 and h e l p e d weaken the A c c o r d . Buta S i n g h became Home M i n i s t e r i n 1986 and t h i s gave him a good p l a t f o r m f r om which t o a t t a c k h i s r i v a l , B a r n a l a . Moreover, he p r o b a b l y undermined R a j i v ' s c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e A k a l i s . I n the case of the A k a l i s , B a d a l and Tohra were i g n o r e d . These two l e a d e r s appeared weak i n mid-1985, but by mid-1986 t h e y had r e g a i n e d t h e i r s t r e n g t h and were p r o v i n g t o be a r e a l t h o r n i n B a r n a l a ' s s i d e . T h i r d , Haryana's d i s a f f e c t i o n , which was a r e s u l t of b e i n g e x c l u d e d from the n e g o t i a t i o n s t h a t l e d t o the Punjab A c c o r d , a l s o caused problems f o r the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the Memorandum of S e t t l e m e n t . A l t h o u g h Haryana had v o t e d m a s s i v e l y f o r R a j i v Gandhi i n t h e December 1984 e l e c t i o n s , t h i s was not a mandate f o r him t o r e p r e s e n t the s t a t e i n i t s d e a l i n g s w i t h P u n j a b . C h a n d i g a r h i s Haryana's c a p i t a l as much as i t i s P u n j a b ' s , and t h u s H a r y a n v i s were h i g h l y d i s g r u n t l e d by R a j i v ' s t a c t i c s . A l s o , the s t a t e depends h e a v i l y on P u n j ab's r i v e r w a t e r s and Haryana. 79 had a major i n t e r e s t i n any s e t t l e m e n t r e g a r d i n g t h e i r a l l o c a t i o n . A l t h o u g h i t i s t r u e t h a t t r i b u n a l s were s e t up t o d e a l i m p a r t i a l l y w i t h t h e s e two i s s u e s , the g e n e r a l f e e l i n g was t h a t Haryana was b e i n g s a c r i f i c e d f o r P u n j a b . F o u r t h , the A c c o r d was u n r e a l i s t i c i n what i t s e t out t o a c c o m p l i s h . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s c h e d u l e was s h o r t and the i s s u e s d e a l t w i t h r e q u i r e d a r a p p o r t between New D e l h i and the P u n j a b which was d i f f i c u l t t o m a i n t a i n f o r v e r y l o n g . The e v e n t s of 1986 proved t h i s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h r o u g h o u t the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phase, the c e n t e r d i d not r e a l i z e t h a t the A c c o r d r e p r e s e n t e d o n l y t h e b e g i n n i n g of the g r a d u a l c o n s o l i d a t i o n of the b a s i s of s u p p o r t of the moderate A k a l i s and t h a t s e v e r a l c o n c e s s i o n s would have t o be made b e f o r e t h e moderates c o u l d e s t a b l i s h a s t r o n g g r i p over S i k h p o l i t i c s . The f a i l u r e t o u n d e r s t a n d t h i s meant t h a t B a r n a l a was caught between New D e l h i and the more r a d i c a l A k a l i s w i t h n o t h i n g t o show f o r a l l h i s e f f o r t s e i t h e r t o t h e c e n t e r or t o t h e more m i l i t a n t S i k h s . As has been shown, the f a i l u r e of the A c c o r d was i n l a r g e p a r t a r e s u l t of changes i n power c o n f i g u r a t i o n i n b oth New D e l h i and P u n j a b . A l s o r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i t s f a i l u r e were f l a w s i n the w o r d i n g of the s e t t l e m e n t and u n r e a l i s t i c g u i d pro quos. Such e x p l a n a t i o n s and t h e i r t h e o r e t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r . 80 NOTES 1. The A c c o r d s i g n e d on J u l y 24, 1985 s t i p u l a t e d t h r e e c r i t e r i a by which t o d e t e r m i n e Haryana's t e r r i t o r i a l c o m p e n s a t i o n . The a r e a was t o be H i n d i - s p e a k i n g , t e r r i t o r i a l l y c o n t i g u o u s and was t o be a s s e s s e d u s i n g the v i l l a g e as a u n i t . When the terms of r e f e r e n c e of the Mathew Commission were p u b l i s h e d a r e f e r e n c e t o " o t h e r " c r i t e r i a was made, th u s l e a v i n g the way open f o r Haryana t o demand t e r r i t o r y t h a t d i d not conform t o the o r i g i n a l t h r e e c o n d i t i o n s . 81 CHAPTER IV: CONCLUSION Oran Young d e f i n e s b a r g a i n i n g as a means by which a c t o r s come t o g e t h e r and n e g o t i a t e t o a c h i e v e mutual g a i n s because the outcome f o r one i s a f u n c t i o n of the o t h e r ' s b e h a v i o u r and v i c e v e r s a . T h i s d e f i n i t i o n i l l u s t r a t e s the importance of b a r g a i n i n g t h e o r y , f o r the case s t u d y of the R a j i v Gandhi-Sant Longowal Accord of J u l y 24, 1985. N e i t h e r of these two p o l i t i c i a n s c o u l d a c h i e v e what he wanted w i t h o u t the c o o p e r a t i o n of the o t h e r . R a j i v was a new prime m i n i s t e r d e t e r m i n e d t o s e t t l e c e n t e r - s t a t e c o n f l i c t s i n I n d i a which had become i n c r e a s i n g l y v i o l e n t i n t h e l a s t few y e a r s . He p a r t i c u l a r l y wanted peace i n Punjab. Punjab i s an a g r i c u l t u r a l l y r i c h and s t r a t e g i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t s t a t e i n n o r t h - w e s t I n d i a . I t s p r o x i m i t y t o New D e l h i and the f a c i l i t y w i t h which i t s communal c o n f l i c t c o u l d s p i l l over i n t o the c a p i t a l was a l a r m i n g . S t a b i l i t y i n the Punjab was not o n l y i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e s e r e a s o n s , but a l s o because I n d i a p r i d e d i t s e l f on i t s s e c u l a r C o n s t i t u t i o n . R e l i g i o u s v i o l e n c e t h r e a t e n e d one of the b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s upon which I n d i a had based i t s s t a t e h o o d . Sant Longowal, meanwhile, wanted t o s e t t l e s e v e r a l p o l i t i c a l , economic, and r e l i g i o u s g r i e v a n c e s which the S i k h community had harboured s i n c e the b i f u r c a t i o n of the s t a t e of Punjab i n t o the new Punjab and Haryana f o l l o w i n g the P u n j a b i Suba movement. These g r i e v a n c e s c o u l d o n l y be a c h i e v e d w i t h New D e l h i ' s p a r t i c i p a t i o n s i n c e t h e y a l l f e l l w i t h i n the c e n t e r ' s j u r i s d i c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , Longowal sought t o r e s t o r e communal peace i n the s t a t e because of the s u f f e r i n g and d e s t r u c t i o n i t 82 had caused s i n c e the e a r l y 1980's. As can be seen, both p o l i t i c i a n s had something t o g a i n from a s e t t l e m e n t , but t h i n g s a r e never s i m p l e i n I n d i a n p o l i t i c s . The massive e l e c t i o n v i c t o r y of R a j i v Gandhi i n December 1984 gave him the l a r g e s t e l e c t o r a l mandate any I n d i a n r u l e r has ever had. He was seen as the man who c o u l d take I n d i a i n t o the t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y . R a j i v was p o p u l a r and young, w e l l - e d u c a t e d and g o a l - o r i e n t e d . No one knew whether he was a s t r o n g l e a d e r , but he was p e r c e i v e d as b e i n g one. Immediately, he began t o work on the s e t t l e m e n t of the Punjab c r i s i s . T h i s i n v o l v e d b a r g a i n i n g w i t h s e n i o r A k a l i Dal l e a d e r s and e v e n t u a l l y Sant Harchand S i n g h Longowal j o i n e d him i n n e g o t i a t i o n s . An A c c o r d on Punjab was f i n a l l y reached i n J u l y 1985. However, by mid-1987 i t had f a i l e d t o s e t t l e the c r i s i s and the b a r g a i n had been s h e l v e d . Why? B a r g a i n i n g t h e o r y h e l p s e x p l a i n t h i s . C h a r l e s L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model proves u s e f u l i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h r e e p r o c e s s e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n s . These a r e i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , d e c i s i o n -making, and s t r a t e g y s e a r c h . Making use of t h e s e p r o c e s s e s , I have a n a l y z e d the Punjab Accord's n e g o t i a t i o n phase a r g u i n g t h a t the s e t t l e m e n t was the r e s u l t of a p a r t i c u l a r c o n f i g u r a t i o n of power t h a t o c c u r r e d i n Punjab and New D e l h i i n mid-1985. A c l o s e l o o k a t the e v i d e n c e s u b s t a n t i a t e s t h i s c e n t r a l h y p o t h e s i s . I n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s the f i r s t p r o c e s s t h a t t a k e s p l a c e i n any b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a t i o n . I t i s d u r i n g t h i s s t a g e t h a t p o t e n t i a l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a b a r g a i n look a t t h e i r o p t i o n s and d etermine a s t a n c e . P e r c e p t i o n s of one's own power and the power of o t h e r p o t e n t i a l p a r t i c i p a n t s are c r u c i a l a t t h i s p o i n t . The 83 p e r c e p t i o n of the p a r t i c i p a n t s ' power by f o l l o w e r s i s e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t . The p o l i t i c a l r o l e of the b a r g a i n e r s a l s o h e l p s determine the s t a n c e t h e y t a k e . Thus, i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s n o t h i n g more than the s u b j e c t i v e a n a l y s i s of the p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n a t one p o i n t i n t i m e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t i s bound t o be i n a c c u r a t e , as the b e h a v i o u r of R a j i v Gandhi and of Sant Longowal c o n f i r m s . Both men thought t h e y c o u l d r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t , and t h e y s e t out t o get i t w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t t h e y might have exa g g e r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r own power. Maybe, i f t h e y had not done t h i s , the A c c o r d would not have been reached or would have been d i f f e r e n t . In e f f e c t , i n our a n a l y s i s , t h e s e m i s p e r c e p t i o n s p l a y a key r o l e i n e x p l a i n i n g the way the Accord was f l a w e d from the b e g i n n i n g . The d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s a l s o c o n f i r m s our v i e w t h a t p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n s a r e the r e s u l t of a p a r t i c u l a r c o n f i g u r a t i o n of power. The t h e o r y s u g g e s t s t h a t o n l y t h o s e groups w i t h a l a r g e degree of i n f l u e n c e p a r t i c i p a t e i n the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . Not o n l y t h a t , but c o n s t r a i n t s on p o l i c y - m a k i n g may o f t e n be i g n o r e d i f a p a r t i c i p a n t or d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g u n i t wrongly p e r c e i v e s t h a t i t can d e a l w i t h the p o l i t i c a l c o s t s i n v o l v e d . The d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s t y l e of R a j i v Gandhi e x e m p l i f i e s t h i s . The i n t e r e s t s of the s t a t e of Haryana were n e g l e c t e d and o t h e r i m p o r t a n t groups were i g n o r e d . Haryana was seen as b e i n g t o t a l l y s u b o r d i n a t e t o New D e l h i and, t h e r e f o r e , c o u l d be s a c r i f i c e d a t l e a s t i n the s h o r t term. The f a i l u r e t o i n c l u d e i m p o r t a n t i n t e r e s t s conformed t o the normal p a t t e r n of I n d i a n p o l i t i c s i n which the " i n s " d e t e r m i n e p o l i c y and the " o u t s " w a i t f o r a new o p p o r t u n i t y t o a r i s e f o r them. Sant Longowal's d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g 84 was j u s t as i n t e r e s t i n g . P r i o r t o 1984, he had p l a y e d the m i l i t a n t s ' game, but a f t e r h i s r e l e a s e from p r i s o n i n March 1985 he c l e a r l y would not do so anymore. He d i d not even i n c l u d e Tohra and Badal i n h i s i n n e r c i r c l e of a d v i s o r s . These two men appeared weak a t the t i m e , but Longowal s h o u l d not have i g n o r e d them so c o m p l e t e l y . As was seen, f a c t i o n s i n Punjab p l a y a c e n t r a l r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g the c o u r s e of e v e n t s . No b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t can be s u c c e s s f u l w i t h o u t i n c l u d i n g a t l e a s t the major f a c t i o n a l a l i g n m e n t s i n the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . F i n a l l y , the s t r a t e g y s e a r c h p r o c e s s has been examined. C l e a r l y , t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n gave c o n c e s s i o n s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s of t h e i r own power. Both R a j i v Gandhi and Sant Longowal appeared sur e of t h e i r c a p a c i t y t o f u l f i l l t h e i r q u i d pro quo commitments. However, time showed how u n r e a l i s t i c the A c c o r d had a c t u a l l y been. In weakly-i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s , p o l i c i e s seldom succeed i f t h e i r a d v o c a t e s l o s e power d u r i n g the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s t a g e . The demise of the A c c o r d was i m p l i c i t i n i t s n e g o t i a t i o n phase as l o n g as one f a c t o r was not changed; namely, the r e l a t i v e p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e of the p a r t i c i p a n t s t o the b a r g a i n . Weakly i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s t a t e s a r e o f t e n c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the r a p i d i t y w i t h which c e r t a i n d e c i s i o n s a r e made. In the case of the P u n j a b , 1985 was seen as t h e b e g i n n i n g of the end of the c r i s i s . In f a c t , u n t i l J a n u a r y 1986, t h i s remained so. However, R a j i v ' s weaknesses began t o show i n 1986, as d i d C h i e f M i n i s t e r B a r n a l a ' s . Once t h i s o c c u r r e d , a s n o w b a l l e f f e c t took p l a c e . By mid-1987, v e r y l i t t l e remained of the 1985 i n i t i a t i v e s : B a r n a l a was r e l e g a t e d t o the p o l i t i c a l backstage of Punjab and R a j i v was 85 f i g h t i n g f o r h i s p o l i t i c a l s u r v i v a l i n New D e l h i . Thus, the f a i l u r e of the Punjab A c c o r d o c c u r r e d i n g r e a t p a r t due t o the weak l e a d e r s h i p i n New D e l h i and Punjab. I n d i a l a c k s the i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n needed t o keep i n i t i a t i v e s and commitments a l i v e once t h e i r a d v o c a t e s a r e gone or weakened. The above remarks h i g h l i g h t the importance of b a r g a i n i n g t h a t i n v o l v e s a l l r e l e v a n t i n t e r e s t s . Shrewder c o a l i t i o n - m a k i n g might have been h e l p f u l i n b u i l d i n g s u p p o r t f o r the A c c o r d . Badal and Tohra s h o u l d not have been e x c l u d e d from the d e c i s i o n -making p r o c e s s . They s h o u l d have been i n c l u d e d and g i v e n a p a r t , however minor, t o p l a y . T h i s would have f o r c e d them t o acknowledge t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the Acc o r d and, t h e r e f o r e , would have c r e a t e d a v e s t e d i n t e r e s t i n them f o r i t s s u c c e s s . In the case of R a j i v , he s h o u l d not have e x c l u d e d Haryana r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from the n e g o t i a t i o n s t h a t l e d t o the A c c o r d . I t i s the i m p r e s s i o n of t h i s a u t h o r t h a t due t o the p e r s o n a l p o p u l a r i t y of R a j i v and i n f l u e n c e of Longowal i n 1985, an Accord would p r o b a b l y have been s i g n e d even w i t h the e x c l u d e d i n t e r e s t s p r e s e n t i n the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . A l s o i m p o r t a n t i n the demise of the Acc o r d i s one a s p e c t of b a r g a i n i n g t h a t our model d i d not d e a l w i t h . T h i s was the f a i l u r e t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between p r i m a r y and secondary g r i e v a n c e s between Haryana and Punjab. L o c k h a r t ' s b a r g a i n i n g model f o c u s e s on the two p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the b a r g a i n and the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g and s t r a t e g y s e a r c h t h e y f o l l o w . I t does not pay any a t t e n t i o n t o the k i n d s of i s s u e s t h a t a r e b e i n g s e t t l e d . In f a c t , i t can be argued t h a t t h i s i s one a r e a of weakness i n our model. Romans, i n 1961, c o n c l u d e d t h a t i t was i m p o r t a n t t o s e p a r a t e 86 i s s u e s a c c o r d i n g t o the v a l u e d i f f e r e n t a c t o r s p l a c e on them. In t h i s way, t r a d e - o f f s a re made e a s i e r as a l l p a r t i e s g e t what t h e y want, or a t l e a s t , t h e y have a b e t t e r chance of g e t t i n g what t h e y want. L o c k h a r t ' s model does not d e a l w i t h t h i s , p r o b a b l y because h i s main concern i s how t h e b a r g a i n i n g p r o c e s s t a k e s p l a c e , not the c o n t e n t of the f i n a l s e t t l e m e n t . However, the importance of wording and of s u b s t a n t i v e i s s u e s d e a l t w i t h i n the c l a u s e s of a b a r g a i n e d s e t t l e m e n t i s demonstrated by the problems t h a t the Mathew, E r a d i , and Des a i commissions went t h r o u g h i n l a t e 1985 and 1986. An example of the above can be seen i n the water and t e r r i t o r i a l i s s u e s of the Punjab A c c o r d . S i n c e 1956, Punjab governments knew t h a t t h e i r r i v e r water would be d i s t r i b u t e d among o t h e r s t a t e s . T h i s was c o n f i r m e d d u r i n g the 1966 b i f u r c a t i o n of the s t a t e as Haryana was a l l o c a t e d water from Punjab's r i v e r s . In a d d i t i o n , s i n c e 1970, Haryana knew t h a t Chandigarh would go t o the Punjab e v e n t u a l l y . For the s e r e a s o n s , a t r a d e - o f f s h o u l d have been c a r r i e d out on these two i s s u e s . C h a n d i g a r h s h o u l d have been conceded by Haryana, not i n exchange f o r t e r r i t o r i a l compensation from Punjab, but f o r a s t e a d y s u p p l y of water, t h a t i s , f o r the c o m p l e t i o n of the Sutlej-Yamuna L i n k c a n a l . T e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e s s h o u l d have been d e a l t w i t h s e p a r a t e l y from a l l t h i s . T h i s way a t l e a s t , two major g r i e v a n c e s c o u l d have been s e t t l e d and the Accord would have r e t a i n e d the c o n f i d e n c e of both New D e l h i and the peoples of Punjab and Haryana. 87 In c o n c l u s i o n , i t i s im p o r t a n t t o note t h a t the Punjab Ac c o r d of 1985 has come the c l o s e s t of any of the a t t e m p t s t o s o l v e the c o n f l i c t i n I n d i a ' s most t r o u b l e d s t a t e . In the f u t u r e , p o l i t i c a l b a r g a i n i n g may be used a g a i n t o attempt a r e s o l u t i o n of the Punjab c r i s i s . The e u p h o r i a w i t h which the Acco r d was r e c e i v e d i n J u l y 1985 shows the u n d e r l y i n g d e s i r e f o r a s e t t l e m e n t of l o n g s t a n d i n g g r i e v a n c e s . 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