UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Evaluation of urban transportation investments using social benefit cost analysis : a case study of the… Schwetz, Thomas Bernard 1988

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E V A L U A T I O N O F U R B A N T R A N S P O R T A T I O N I N V E S T M E N T S U S I N G S O C I A L B E N E F I T C O S T A N A L Y S I S : A C A S E S T U D Y O F T H E G E I S T R O A D E X T E N S I O N I N F A I R B A N K S , A L A S K A B y T H O M A S B E R N A R D S C H W E T Z B . S c . C a l i f o r n i a P o l y t e c h n i c U n i v e r s i t y , 1979 A T H E S I S S U B M I T T E D I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L L M E N T O F T H E R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R T H E D E G R E E O F M A S T E R O F S C I E N C E i n T H E F A C U L T Y O F G R A D U A T E S T U D I E S ( F a c u l t y o f C o m m e r c e a n d B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ) W e a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A S e p t e m b e r 1988 © T h o m a s B e r n a r d Schwetz, 1988 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of vQ K?ffl/f? The University of British Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 DE-6(3/81) ABSTRACT This paper i l l u s t r a t e s the use of S o c i a l B e n e f i t - C o s t A n a l y s i s (SBCA) to evaluate a major highway improvement p r o j e c t proposed f o r Fairbanks, Alaska. Use of SBCA has been shown to l e a d t o the s e l e c t i o n of p r o j e c t s which provi d e g r e a t e r net b e n e f i t s to s o c i e t y than other e v a l u a t i o n methods. Despite t h i s , the m a j o r i t y of resources spent on highway investment i n the U.S. each year i s programmed based on simple, non-economic investment r u l e s . The case study employs a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s of F a i r b a n k ' s highway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system i n order to develop estimates of d i r e c t user costs over the l i f e of the proposed p r o j e c t . T h i s l e v e l of d e t a i l provides r e l i a b l e user costs, s e n s i t i v e to r e l a t i o n s h i p s between costs and t r a f f i c volumes, land use patterns, d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r a f f i c by time of day, v e h i c l e mix, e t c . It i s concluded that the method used i n the case study i s a p p l i c a b l e to and appropriate f o r use i n other medium-sized and small urban areas. The data re q u i r e d f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s was found to be a v a i l a b l e from models r o u t i n e l y generated by most c i t i e s . Analyses of t h i s type could be improved with b e t t e r data on v e h i c l e operating costs, the v a l u a t i o n of t r a v e l time and the r e l a t i o n s h i p between accidents and t r a f f i c volumes. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between the t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s using SBCA and the broader decision-making framework i s discussed. I t i s concluded that analysts can p l a y a r o l e i n ensuring the e f f e c t i v e use of the a n a l y s i s r e s u l t s i n the often p o l i t i c i z e d decision-making framework. I t i s f e l t that t h i s i s best accomplished by ensuring the a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n of the a n a l y s t , the decision-maker and the community i n the development of a l t e r n a t i v e s and the s e t t i n g of objectives to be used i n the a n a l y s i s . TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract i i Table of Contents i i i L i s t of Tables v L i s t of Figures v i C h a p t e r 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose and Motivation of Study 1 1.1.1 Transportation Investment Decision-Making Process 2 1.1.2 Evaluation Techniques 4 1.2 Purpose of Study 6 1.3 Structure of Study 8 Chapter One Footnotes 8 C h a p t e r 2 D e s c r i p t i o n of Case Study and Method of Analysis 9 2.1 Case Study Background 9 2.1.1 Sources of Case S p e c i f i c Data 11 2.2 Method of Analysis 12 2.2.1 Overview of S o c i a l Benefit-Cost Analysis 12 2.2.2 Approach Taken i n This Study 14 2.3 Project Costs 18 2.3.1 Construction Costs 18 2.3.2 Maintenance Costs 20 Chapter 2 Footnotes 20 C h a p t e r 3 System Analysis 21 3.1 Introduction 21 3.2 Development of Network Analysis 23 3.3 Development of Base and Forecast Link Volumes23 3.3.1 Method f or Determining Link Volumes 23 3.3.1.1 T r i p Generation and D i s t r i b u t i o n 25 3.3.1.2 Mode S p l i t 27 3.3.1.3 T r a f f i c Assignment 27 3.3.2 Forecasts of T r a f f i c 32 3.4 Network and Travel C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 35 3.4.1 Network C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 35 3.4.2 Travel C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 35 3.4.2.1 Time of Day C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 35 3.4.2.2 Weekly and Seasonal V a r i a t i o n i n T r a f f i c 39 3.4.2.3 D i s t r i b u t i o n of D a i l y Trips by T r i p Purpose 40 3.4.2.4 Average Auto Occupancy by T r i p Purpose 41 3.4.2.5 Vehicle Mix 42 3.5 C a l c u l a t i o n of Link Operating Conditions 42 3.5.1 Development of Link Speed Estimates 43 Chapter 3 Footnotes 47 i i i i C h a p t e r 4 User Costs 49 4.1 Veh i c l e Operating Costs 49 4.1.1 Auto Operating Costs 50 4.1.1.1 Fuel 50 4.1.1.2 Other V a r i a b l e Costs 51 4.1.1.3 Results of Variable Cost 54 4.1.2 Truck Costs 55 4.1.3 T o t a l Vehicle Operating Costs 56 4.2 Value of Time i n Transportation 57 4.3 Accident Costs 60 4.4 Summary 67 Chapter 4 Footnotes 68 C h a p t e r 5 Comparison of Costs and Benefits 5.1 C a l c u l a t i o n of User Benefits 5.2 Generated T r a f f i c 5.3 Comparison of Costs and Benefits 5.3.1 The Discount Rate 5.3.2 Methods f o r Comparing Costs and Be n e f i t s 5.3.3 S e n s i t i v i t y A nalysis 5.3.3.1 Generated T r a f f i c , Accident Cost Savings and Value of Time 5.3.3.2 Population Growth and Discount Rate 5.3.3.3 Project Costs 5.4 Results of Analysis 5.4.1 Recommendations Chapter 5 Footnotes C h a p t e r 6 Conclusions 94 6.1 Conclusions Regarding Evaluation Technique used i n Geist Extension Case Study 94 6.2 The Role of Analysts i n the Transportation Investment Decision-Making Process 95 6.2.1 Desc r i p t i o n of the Transportation Investment Decision-Making Process 95 6.2.2 The Role of Analysts 96 6.3 Conclusions 99 Chapter 6 Footnotes 101 B i b l i o g r a p h y 102 A p p e n d i c e s Notes on Appendices 106 Notes on Spreadsheet Used 107 Appendix A 115 Appendix B 130 Appendix C 152 69 69 71 76 77 79 81 82 84 85 87 89 93 i v L I S T O F T A B L E S C h a p t e r 2 T a b l e 2 - 1 P r o j e c t D e v e l o p m e n t C o s t s - G e i s t E x t e n s i o n 1 9 T a b l e 2 - 2 E s t i m a t e d M a i n t e n a n c e C o s t s - G e i s t R o a d E x t e n s i o n 2 0 C h a p t e r 3 T a b l e 3 - 1 F M A T S T r i p G e n e r a t i o n F a c t o r s 2 6 T a b l e 3 - 2 A v e r a g e A n n u a l H o u r l y D i s t r i b u t i o n 3 8 T a b l e 3 - 3 P e r L a n e C a p a c i t y a n d E s t i m a t e d A v e r a g e S p e e d o n V a r i o u s F a c i l i t y T y p e s a t D i f f e r e n t L o c a t i o n s 4 6 C h a p t e r 4 T a b l e 4 - 1 B a s i c C o s t s a t V a r i o u s C o n s t a n t S p e e d s - A u t o m o b i l e s 5 3 T a b l e 4 - 2 E x a m p l e s o f V a r i a b l e O p e r a t i n g C o s t s ( A u t o ) f o r V a r i o u s F a c i l i t i e s a n d C o n d i t i o n s 5 4 T a b l e 4 - 3 B a s i c C o s t s a t C o n s t a n t S p e e d s - T r u c k s 5 6 T a b l e 4 - 4 T r u c k O p e r a t i n g C o s t s A d j u s t e d f o r T r a f f i c I n t e r a c t i o n 5 7 T a b l e 4 - 5 V a l u e o f T i m e E s t i m a t e s 5 9 T a b l e 4 - 6 V a l u e o f T i m e E s t i m a t e s - A l a s k a 5 9 T a b l e 4 - 7 R e p r e s e n t a t i v e M o t o r V e h i c l e I n j u r i e s b y A b b r e v i a t e d I n j u r y S c a l e L e v e l 6 2 T a b l e 4 - 8 A c c i d e n t C o s t s - R e c o m m e n d e d D i r e c t C o s t E s t i m a t e s 6 4 T a b l e 4 - 9 A c c i d e n t C o s t s - R e c o m m e n d e d I n d i r e c t C a p i t a l C o s t E s t i m a t e s 6 5 T a b l e 4 - 1 0 A d j u s t e d A c c i d e n t C o s t s 6 6 T a b l e 4 - 1 1 I n c i d e n c e o f T r a f f i c A c c i d e n t T y p e s 6 6 C h a p t e r 5 T a b l e 5 - 1 C a l c u l a t i o n o f B e n e f i t S t r e a m 7 0 T a b l e 5 - 2 C a l c u l a t i o n o f B e n e f i t s t o G e n e r a t e d T r a f f i c 7 5 T a b l e 5 - 3 S u m m a r y o f G e i s t E x t e n s i o n C o s t s a n d B e n e f i t s 8 8 v LIST OF FIGURES C h a p t e r 1 F i g u r e 1 - 1 T y p i c a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n I n v e s t m e n t D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g P r o c e s s 3 C h a p t e r 2 F i g u r e 2 - 1 P r o p o s e d P r o j e c t a n d S u r r o u n d i n g A r e a 1 0 F i g u r e 2 - 2 U s e r T i m e C o s t F u n c t i o n f o r T y p i c a l U r b a n R o a d S e g m e n t 1 5 F i g u r e 2 - 3 P r o c e s s f o r P r o j e c t E v a l u a t i o n 1 7 C h a p t e r 3 F i g u r e 3 - 1 D i a g r a m o f S y s t e m A n a l y s i s f o r P r o j e c t E v a l u a t i o n 2 2 F i g u r e 3 - 2 F a i r b a n k s A r e a R o a d N e t w o r k W i t h a n d W i t h o u t G e i s t R o a d E x t e n s i o n 2 4 F i g u r e 3 - 3 A s s i g n m e n t F a c t o r s 3 3 F i g u r e 3 - 4 D a i l y T r a f f i c V o l u m e D i s t r i b u t i o n o n M a j o r R o u t e s i n F a i r b a n k s 3 6 C h a p t e r 5 F i g u r e 5 - 1 A n n u a l U s e r O p e r a t i n g C o s t s 7 2 F i g u r e 5 - 2 B e n e f i t s t o G e n e r a t e d T r a f f i c 7 3 F i g u r e 5 - 3 E f f e c t s o f V a r i o u s B e n e f i t s 8 3 F i g u r e 5 - 4 E f f e c t s o f G r o w t h a n d D i s c o u n t R a t e 8 6 F i g u r e 5 - 5 I m p a c t o f C h a n g e s i n C o n s t r u c t i o n C o s t s 8 6 F i g u r e 5 - 6 P o t e n t i a l S u b - P r o j e c t s f o r F u r t h e r A n a l y s i s 9 1 A p p e n d i c e s F i g u r e A - l G u i d e t o A p p e n d i x A : S y s t e m A n a l y s i s F i g u r e A - 2 G u i d e t o A p p e n d i x B : U s e r C o s t A n a l y s i s F i g u r e A - 3 G u i d e t o A p p e n d i x C : E v a l u a t i o n v i C H A P T E R O N E I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 . 1 P u r p o s e a n d M o t i v a t i o n o f S t u d y I n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n i s o n e o f t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t s t e p s i n t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . I t i n v o l v e s b o t h a n a l y s t s a n d p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n m a k e r s i n a n a c t i v i t y w h i c h u s u a l l y l e a d s t o t h e c o m m i t t m e n t o f a n a r e a ' s r e s o u r c e s . T y p i c a l o f m a n y p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t s , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s a r e u s u a l l y c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e , l o n g - l i f e f a c i l i t i e s . T h u s , i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t c a r e b e t a k e n i n e v a l u a t i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s . A n a l y s t s m u s t p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n t o d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s w h i c h a l l o w s t h e m t o m a k e t h e b e s t u s e o f l i m i t e d p u b l i c r e s o u r c e s i n a c c o m p l i s h i n g a c o m m u n i t y ' s g o a l s . S u g d e n a n d W i l l i a m s d e s c r i b e p r o j e c t s a n d p r o j e c t a p p r a i s a l ( o r e v a l u a t i o n ) a s f o l l o w s : " A p r o j e c t , b r o a d l y d e f i n e d , i s a w a y o f u s i n g r e s o u r c e s ; a d e c i s i o n b e t w e e n u n d e r t a k i n g a n d n o t u n d e r t a k i n g a p r o j e c t i s a c h o i c e b e t w e e n a l t e r n a t i v e w a y s o f u s i n g r e s o u r c e s . P r o j e c t appraisal i s a p r o c e s s o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n a n d r e a s o n i n g d e s i g n e d t o a s s i s t a d e c i s i o n - m a k e r t o r e a c h a n i n f o r m e d a n d r a t i o n a l c h o i c e " ( S u g d e n a n d W i l l i a m s , p g 3 ) . T w o b r o a d i s s u e s a r i s e i n t h e p r o c e s s o f e v a l u a t i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s ( M e y e r a n d M i l l e r , p g 3 7 2 ) . F i r s t , t h e p u b l i c d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i s a p o l i t i c a l o n e a n d t h u s i n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d f r o m a n e v a l u a t i o n i s f i l t e r e d t h r o u g h t h e v a l u e s a n d o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g g r o u p b e f o r e a f i n a l i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n i s m a d e . S e c o n d i s d e t e r m i n i n g t h e s e t o f t e c h n i q u e s u s e d b y a n a l y s t s i n e v a l u a t i n g p r o j e c t s a n d t h u s g e n e r a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n u s e d b y d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s . 1 1 . 1 . 1 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n I n v e s t m e n t D e c i s i o n M a k i n g P r o c e s s F i g u r e 1 - 1 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s t y p i c a l l y u s e d b y l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s . The e v a l u a t i o n f r a m e w o r k o v e r l a p s t h e a n a l y s i s d o n e b y p l a n n e r s a n d t h e d e c i s i o n m a d e b y t h e p u b l i c a n d i t s e l e c t e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . W i t h i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n , t h e p u b l i c p o l i c y i s s u e s ( s u c h a s t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n , a i r p o l l u t i o n , c o m m u n i t y d e v e l o p m e n t ) , w h i c h may h a v e m o t i v a t e d s t u d y o f t h e p r o b l e m i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , i n t e r a c t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e t e c h n i c a l e v a l u a t i o n p r e p a r e d b y p l a n n e r s . B o t h p l a y i m p o r t a n t r o l e s i n a f f e c t i n g t h e f i n a l i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n . T h e p r o j e c t i s a s l i k e l y t o b e a p p r o v e d b e c a u s e i t i s p e r c e i v e d a s " g o o d f o r c o m m u n i t y d e v e l o p m e n t " a s i t i s f o r i t s d i r e c t u s e r b e n e f i t s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t i s a l s o l i k e l y t o b e a p p r o v e d b a s e d o n m i s p e r c e p t i o n s d e s p i t e d i r e c t c o s t s o u t w e i g h i n g d i r e c t b e n e f i t s ( N o w l a n , p g 2 ) . A s N o w l a n r e l a t e d i n h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e S p a d i n a E x p r e s s w a y i n T o r o n t o ( N o w l a n , p g 2 ) : ". . . t h e r e o c c u r s a n i n t e r p l a y b e t w e e n f a c t u a l a n a l y s i s a n d e v a l u a t i o n o n o n e h a n d a n d p o l i c y d e b a t e o n t h e o t h e r . T h i s o v e r l a p o f p o l i c y d e b a t e a n d p r o j e c t d i s c u s s i o n i s a n i n e s c a p a b l e a s p e c t o f m u c h g o v e r n m e n t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , a n d s o m e t h i n g w h i c h c a n n o t b e d i s p e l l e d b y b r a n d i s h i n g t e c h n i q u e s s u c h a s c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s . " T h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s t h r o u g h w h i c h a c o m m u n i t y ' s r e s o u r c e s a r e c o m m i t t e d i s i n f l u e n c e d b y a n d c a n i n f l u e n c e t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s . B e y o n d t h e i n f o r m a t i o n o n p r o j e c t u s e a n d i m p a c t g e n e r a t e d b y a n e v a l u a t i o n , t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f a n e v a l u a t i o n i s o f t e n d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e a n a l y s t ' s a b i l i t y t o c o n v e y d i s t r i b u t i o n a l e f f e c t s 2 F i g u r e 1-1 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Investment Decision-Making Process Used by Alaska DOT/PF f o r G e i s t E x t e n s i o n P r o j e c t < Problem Percieved Study Authorized Existing Policy Issues - Congestion - Pollution Analysis. Sv_s^ejT2^naly_sjs_ - Development of Alternatives - Evaluation of Alternatives - Recommendations E v a l u a t i o n Public Decision on Analysis - Public Hearings - Committee and Council Endorsement (City of Fairbanks, Fairbanks North Star Borough) Public Decision on Annual Budget (State of Alaska) Program Project in 5-year Capital Improvement Program 3 ( i . e . , w h o g e t s w h a t o u t o f t h e p r o j e c t ) , t r a d e - o f f s b e t w e e n a l t e r n a t i v e s a n d m a j o r a r e a s o f u n c e r t a i n t y ( M e y e r a n d M i l l e r , p g 373). 1 . 1 . 2 E v a l u a t i o n T e c h n i q u e s S e v e r a l v e r y d i f f e r e n t t e c h n i q u e s c a n b e e m p l o y e d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s . N o n - e c o n o m i c m e t h o d s u s e s i m p l e p e r f o r m a n c e m e a s u r e s s u c h a s v o l u m e t o c a p a c i t y r a t i o s , t r a v e l d e l a y , a n d r o a d r o u g h n e s s t o e s t a b l i s h s t a n d a r d s ( o r m i n i m u m t o l e r a b l e c o n d i t i o n s ) w h i c h c a n b e u s e d t o g u i d e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m i n v e s t m e n t s . C o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s t e c h n i q u e s a t t e m p t t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n o n h o w a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s m e e t v a r i o u s g o a l s e s t a b l i s h e d b y a c o m m u n i t y . S o c i a l B e n e f i t - C o s t A n a l y s i s ( S B C A ) a t t e m p t s t o e s t a b l i s h t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e i n v e s t m e n t s , i n d o l l a r t e r m s , t o s o c i e t y o r t h e c o m m u n i t y a s a w h o l e . T h i s p a p e r f o c u s e s o n e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s r s p e c i f i c a l l y S B C A . T h e p r i m a r y d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n S B C A a n d n o n - e c o n o m i c e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s i s t h a t n o n - e c o n o m i c t e c h n i q u e s a r e i n s e n s i t i v e t o t h e c o s t s i n v o l v e d i n a p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t . W h i l e u s e f u l i n i d e n t i f y i n g p r o j e c t s , n o n - e c o n o m i c t e c h n i q u e s p r o v i d e n o i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f a p r o j e c t . A s e x p l a i n e d b y G o m e z - I b a n e z a n d L e e , " t h e r e m a y b e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h h i g h e r s t a n d a r d s w o u l d b e j u s t i f i e d b y t h e i n c r e m e n t a l b e n e f i t s a n d o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h i m p o s i n g t h e s t a n d a r d c a l l s f o r c o s t s t h a t e x c e e d t h e -i n c r e m e n t a l b e n e f i t s " ( G o m e z - I b a n e z a n d L e e , p g 22). T h u s , n o n - e c o n o m i c m e t h o d s a s e m b o d i e d i n i m p r o v e m e n t s t a n d a r d s a n d s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g s p r o v i d e l i t t l e g u i d a n c e f o r t h e e c o n o m i c a l l y e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s t o t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m . 4 Comparison of the s e v e r a l techniques a v a i l a b l e to evaluate t r a n s p o r t a t i o n investment has been the focus of two recent s t u d i e s . The f i r s t i s a 1985 study by Gomez-Ibanez and O'Keefe t e s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e investment rules using U.S. i n t e r s t a t e highway investment d e c i s i o n s as t e s t cases. The second study was prepared i n 198 6 by McFarland and Memmott us i n g added-capacity p r o j e c t s as t e s t cases. The major f i n d i n g s of these studies i n d i c a t e that, not only i s an e x p l i c i t use of b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s p r e f e r a b l e t o o t h e r t e c h n i q u e s f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n investment evaluation; because other techniques are generally used i n most s t a t e s i n the U.S., a s i g n i f i c a n t l y l a r g e i n c r e a s e i n e f f i c i e n c y would r e s u l t from using b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s (McFarland and Memmott, pg i ; Gomez-Ibanez and O'Keefe, pg 85). McFarland and Memmott compared s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g systems, p r i o r i t y formulas and c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i n the evaluation of 1,942 added-capacity projects being considered f o r funding i n Texas. 1 They found t h a t f o r a ten-year budget of $5,742 b i l l i o n , the b e n e f i t - c o s t procedure s e l e c t e d p r o j e c t s that give over $22 b i l l i o n more b e n e f i t s than does the s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g system and approximately $7.8 b i l l i o n more than does the p r i o r i t y formula. Gomez-Ibanez and O'Keefe compared investment r u l e s which s p e c i f y minimum t o l e r a b l e p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s (MTC's) beyond which investment i s required and c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s . ^ Their p r i n c i p l e f i n d i n g i s that the investment r u l e s used f o r highways by State and Local o f f i c i a l s are often excessively 5 s i m p l e ( G o m e z - I b a n e z a n d O ' K e e f e , p g 3 ) . T h e y n o t e t h a t f o r m a n y i m p o r t a n t t y p e s o f i n v e s t m e n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y r e p a v i n g a n d r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , h i g h w a y a g e n c i e s o f t e n u s e M T C r u l e s t h a t d o n o t c l o s e l y a p p r o x i m a t e t h e r e s u l t s o f b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s ( G o m e z - I b a n e z , p g 3 ) . F r o m t e s t c a s e s t h e y c o n c l u d e t h a t " t h e a d d i t i o n a l s o c i a l b e n e f i t f r o m u s i n g t h e s e i m p r o v e d r u l e s ( e d . -c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s ) c o u l d e a s i l y a m o u n t t o t e n o r t w e n t y p e r c e n t o f t h e c o s t o f t h e i n v e s t m e n t s ( G o m e z - I b a n e z , p g 8 5 ) . D e s p i t e t h i s , t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e b i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s s p e n t o n h i g h w a y i n v e s t m e n t i n t h e U . S . e a c h y e a r i s p r o g r a m m e d b a s e d o n s i m p l e , n o n - e c o n o m i c i n v e s t m e n t r u l e s ( G o m e z - I b a n e z a n d O ' K e e f e , p g i i ) . 1 . 2 Purpose of Study G i v e n t h e i n f l u e n c e s w h i c h c a n p r e v a i l o n t h e e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s , s o c i a l b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s c a n n o t s t a n d a l o n e , n o r d o e s i t h a v e a p o s i t i o n w h i c h s u p e r c e d e s p o l i c y . R a t h e r , i t p r o v i d e s " a m e t h o d b y w h i c h d a t a c a n b e a r r a n g e d f o r e a s i e r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n t h e l i g h t o f r e l e v a n t p o l i c i e s " ( N o w l a n , p g 2 ) . S o c i a l b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s i s a r g u e d t o a l s o p r o v i d e a f r a m e w o r k f o r r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n w h i c h m a y m a k e p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s m o r e a c c o u n t a b l e t o a c o m m u n i t y ( S u g d e n a n d W i l l i a m s , p g 2 4 1 ) . I n l i g h t o f t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n S e c t i o n 1 . 1 . 1 , a n e v a l u a t i o n s h o u l d h a v e a s i t s o b j e c t i v e s : 1 ) t h e g u i d i n g o f m u c h o f t h e t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s , 2 ) a 6 s u m m a r i z a t i o n i n u n d e r s t a n d a b l e t e r m s o f t h e k e y i s s u e s t o b e c o n s i d e r e d b y d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , a n d 3) a c c e s s f o r i n v o l v e m e n t o f i n t e r e s t e d p a r t i e s ( M e y e r a n d M i l l e r , p g 375). T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f S B C A i n e v a l u a t i n g a n u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t . T h e u l t i m a t e r e s u l t o f a s o c i a l b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s o f a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t i s a c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s i n m o n e t a r y t e r m s . T h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e s e p r o j e c t c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s i n v o l v e s a f a i r l y c o m p l e x s e r i e s o f s t e p s . A c a s e s t u d y w i l l b e u s e d t o s h o w w h a t a n a l y t i c a l m e t h o d s a n d d a t a a r e r e q u i r e d t o d e v e l o p a r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e o f c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s f o r u r b a n h i g h w a y p r o j e c t s . T h e c a s e s t u d y i n v o l v e s t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a h i g h w a y p r o j e c t i n F a i r b a n k s , A l a s k a . T h e f o c u s o f t h e p a p e r i s t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f a m e t h o d o f d e v e l o p i n g a r e f i n e d s e t o f u s e r c o s t s . T h i s m e t h o d m a k e s u s e o f a d e t a i l e d b r e a k - d o w n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m a c t i v i t y t o e s t i m a t e t h e d i r e c t e f f e c t s o f a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t . W h i l e t h e s t u d y d o e s e m p h a s i z e t h e t e c h n i q u e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s i t i s r e c o g i z e d t h a t t h e c o n t e x t w i t h i n w h i c h t h e e v a l u a t i o n i s u n d e r t a k e n ( o f t e n a p o l i t i c a l o n e ) i s q u i t e i m p o r t a n t a n d c a n i n f l u e n c e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s u c h a n a l y s i s . I n t h i s c o n t e x t e v a l u a t i o n i s s e e n a s a v i t a l l i n k b e t w e e n p l a n n i n g a n d d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g ( M e y e r a n d M i l l e r , p g 3 7 3 ) . T h e i s s u e o f S B C A i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i s a d d r e s s e d i n C h a p t e r s F i v e a n d S i x o f t h i s p a p e r . 7 1 . 3 Structure of Study C h a p t e r T w o d e s c r i b e s t h e c a s e s t u d y a n d m e t h o d o f a n a l y s i s u s e d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n . C h a p t e r T h r e e c o n t a i n s a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e h i g h w a y n e t w o r k u s e d i n t h e c a s e s t u d y . C h a p t e r F o u r d e v e l o p s h i g h w a y u s e r c o s t s . C h a p t e r F i v e p r e s e n t s t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n . C h a p t e r S i x p r o v i d e s a s u m m a r y o f t h e p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s a s p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s s t u d y , d i s c u s s i n g h o w i t i s a f f e c t e d b y t h e p o l i t i c a l n a t u r e o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s a n d d r a w i n g o n r e c e n t e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h w h i c h c o m p a r e s a l t e r n a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . F O O T N O T E S C H A P T E R O N E 1 . A s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g i s a n i n d e x u s u a l l y c o n s i s t i n g o f t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s , e a c h h a v i n g s e v e r a l s u b u n i t s w i t h w e i g h t s t h a t t y p i c a l l y s u m t o 1 0 0 p o i n t s i f t h e h i g h w a y i s t o t a l l y s u f f i c i e n t . H i g h w a y s w i t h t h e l o w e s t r a t i n g s a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e t h e o n e s m o s t i n n e e d o f i m p r o v e m e n t ( M c F a r l a n d a n d M e m m o t t , p g 5 ) . P r i o r i t y f o r m u l a s a r e c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s t e c h n i q u e s w h i c h u s e a f o r m u l a t i o n ( e . g . , a r a t i o ) o f t h e c h a n g e i n s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g s o n a r o a d s e g m e n t a n d t h e c o s t o f a c h i e v i n g t h a t c h a n g e ( M c F a r l a n d a n d M e m m o t t , p g 7 ) . T h e b e n e f i t - c o s t p r o c e d u r e u s e d i n t h e M c F a r l a n d a n d M e m m o t t s t u d y i s a m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e H i g h w a y E c o n o m i c E v a l u a t i o n M o d e l I I ( o r H E E M - I I ) d e v e l o p e d b y t h e F e d e r a l H i g h w a y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . 2 . R u l e s u s i n g M T C ' s i n c l u d e b o t h t h e s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g s y s t e m s a n d p r i o r i t y f o r m u l a s d i s c u s s e d b y M c F a r l a n d a n d M e m m o t t . 8 CHAPTER TWO Description of Case Study and Method of Analysis T h i 3 chapter provides background on the community of Fairbanks, Alaska and the proposed p r o j e c t - the Geist Road Extension. Estimates of p r o j e c t construction and maintenance c o s t 3 are presented along with a d e s c r i p t i o n of the p r o j e c t ' s layout and c o n s t r u c t i o n schedule. The approach used i n evaluating the project i s also discussed. 2.1 Case Study Background Fairbanks i s l o c a t e d i n the i n t e r i o r of Alaska, approximately 30 0 miles north of Anchorage. The 1984 population f o r the Borough was estimated to be approximately 70,000. Based on continued population growth at h i s t o r i c rates and the build-up of a l o c a l m i l i t a r y base, the area population i s expected to grow to 128,000 by the year 2005 (DCCO, 1985A, pg I I - 6 ) . As w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r i n Chapter Three, t h i s i s an admittedly high growth scenario used i n the Fairbanks Metropolitan Area T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Study (FMATS) Update prepared by DeLeuw Cather Company (DCCO) to assess the "worst-case" t r a f f i c generation (DCCO, 1985A, pg I I - l ) . The case study i s a proposed highway pr o j e c t i n Fairbanks. E s s e n t i a l l y , i t i s an extension of an e x i s t i n g east-west a r t e r i a l with connections to downtown Fairbanks. The study horizon i s 20 years, extending from 1986 to 2005. Fig u r e 2-1 shows the proposed p r o j e c t as w e l l as the c e n t r a l area of Fairbanks. The proposed highway p r o j e c t runs through the middle of the r e l a t i v e l y undeveloped c e n t r a l part of the community. The a d d i t i o n of more 9 F i g u r e 2 - 1 10 east-west ca p a c i t y was a n t i c i p a t e d i n the o r i g i n a l FMATS recommendations made i n 1969. However, a formal project proposal was not put f o r t h u n t i l 1977 when Alaska Department of T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and P u b l i c F a c i l i t i e s (ADOT/PF) began preliminary design work. The objective of the project i s to r e l i e v e congestion on other a r t e r i a l s and provide b e t t e r access to the downtown area. Several a l t e r n a t i v e routes were analyzed although no formal a n a l y s i s was done of a l t e r n a t i v e s to the construction of a d d i t i o n a l capacity (e.g., t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system management a l t e r n a t i v e s ) . Through the input and a n a l y s i s gained from the preparation of a formal Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), the p r e f e r r e d a l t e r n a t i v e (shown i n Figure 2-1) was selected by ADOT/PF i n e a r l y 1985. 1 2.1.1 Sources of Case-Specific Data The primary source of data f o r p r o j e c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , costs and the p r o j e c t ' s environmental impacts come from the ADOT/PF D i v i s i o n s of Design and Construction, and Maintenance. System a n a l y s i s data ( t r a f f i c volumes, road network c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , etc.) are taken from the recently completed update of the Fairbanks Metropolitan Area T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Study (FMATS) prepared by DeLeuw Cather Company (DCCO) and information provided by ADOT/PF Planning and Programming Section. Information on user costs i n Alaska are adapted from a recent economic evaluation prepared by Quadra Engineering, and an e a r l i e r regional transportation study of Northern Alaska prepared by Berger and Associates. 11 2.2 Method of Analysis 2.2.1 Overview of S o c i a l Benefit-Coat Analysis As s t a t e d i n Chapter One, the o b j e c t i v e of the case study i s to i l l u s t r a t e the use of S o c i a l Benefit Cost Analysis (SBCA) i n assessing the costs and b e n e f i t s of an urban tran s p o r t a t i o n investment, s p e c i f i c a l l y the Geist Road Extension. As a decision-making t o o l , SBCA s t r i v e s to provide a r a t i o n a l b a s i s f o r the a l l o c a t i o n of resources i n a manner which maximizes the goals of a community (Pearce, pg 6) . I t does t h i s by attempting to measure i n d i v i d u a l community members' assessments of the costs and b e n e f i t s to them of a p a r t i c u l a r use of s o c i a l resources. The measurement of these costs and benefits i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y to be based on i n d i v i d u a l preferences as expressed i n markets. To be v a l i d , the a n a l y s i s must use the true economic cost of resources used as r e f l e c t e d i n t h e i r "opportunity cost" (Pearce, pg 13) . At l e a s t three problems e x i s t i n the attempt to measure the opportunity cost of resources used i n a p r o j e c t : 1) Markets may not e x i s t f o r some resources (e.g., the value of time, value.of l i f e ) ; 2) Markets may be d i s t o r t e d . In other words, the p r i c e paid i n d o l l a r amounts may not r e f l e c t opportunity cost of resource used. This t y p i c a l l y happens i n developing countries stemming from r a p i d i n f l a t i o n , government c o n t r o l s , over valuation of the domestic currency, underemployment of labor, e t c . (Adler, pg 11); 3) The use of resources associated with a p r o j e c t occurs over an extended period of time. 12 To a d d r e s s t h e f i r s t t wo p r o b l e m s , e c o n o m i s t s u s e a n a p p r o a c h c a l l e d s h a d o w p r i c i n g . S h a d o w p r i c i n g a t t e m p t s t o i n f e r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o a t o f r e s o u r c e ' s u s e b y o b s e r v i n g b e h a v i o r i n r e l a t e d m a r k e t s . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e v a l u e o f t i m e i s e s t i m a t e d b y w h a t e m p l o y e r s a r e w i l l i n g t o p a y o r b y w h a t w age e a r n e r s a r e w i l l i n g t o w o r k f o r : wage r a t e s p l u s f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ( A d l e r , p g 3 8 ) . The v a l u a t i o n o f n o i s e m i g h t b e i n f e r r e d f r o m g e o g r a p h i c d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e p r i c e o f h o u s i n g ( S u g d e n a n d W i l l i a m s , p g 1 6 2 ) . Shadow p r i c i n g c a n a l s o i n c l u d e a d j u s t m e n t s made t o e x i s t i n g m a r k e t s w h i c h a r e c o n s i d e r e d d i s t o r t e d . T o p r o v i d e a n a c c u r a t e c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s o f t h e p r o j e c t o v e r t i m e , t h e y s h o u l d b e d i s c o u n t e d t o a common p o i n t i n t i m e . T h i s d i s c o u n t i n g a d j u s t s t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s t o r e f l e c t t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y o f c a p i t a 1 - a d o l l a r i s w o r t h m o r e t o d a y t h a n n e x t y e a r ; a n d p o s i t i v e  t i m e - p r e f e r e n c e - i n d i v i d u a l s p r e f e r now t o l a t e r ( P e a r c e , p g 3 8 ) . T o a c c u r a t e l y d i s c o u n t c o s t s o v e r t h e l i f e o f t h e p r o j e c t , c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s m u s t b e e s t i m a t e d f o r e a c h y e a r o f t h e p r o j e c t . T h i s n e e d f o r y e a r t o y e a r d a t a c o n t r a s t s w i t h m o s t p l a n n i n g p r a c t i c e w h i c h o f t e n u s e s o n e o r t w o t a r g e t y e a r s f o r a n a l y s i s . T y p i c a l l y , a n SBCA o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t w i l l i n c l u d e a m e a s u r e o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c o s t s : - V e h i c l e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , - U s e r t i m e c o s t s , - A c c i d e n t c o s t s , - O t h e r n o n - u s e r c o s t s s u c h a s n o i s e a n d a i r p o l l u t i o n , - C o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , - M a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s . These costs are developed f o r the a f f e c t e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system with and without the p r o j e c t . The underlying c r i t e r i o n which i s used i n SBCA to determine the worth of a p r o j e c t i s the p o t e n t i a l Pareto improvement c r i t e r i o n (Sugden and Williams, pg 8 9 ) . The f o l l o w i n g i s a d e f i n i t i o n provided by Sugden and Williams of Pareto improvement and p o t e n t i a l Pareto improvement (Sugden and Williams, pg 8 9 ) : "In the language of welfare economics, a change that makes at l e a s t one member of a community b e t t e r o f f and makes none worse of f i s a Pareto Improvement. Undertaking a p r o j e c t provides a p o t e n t i a l Pareto improvement i f i t i s i n principle possible t o secure an actual Pareto improvement by l i n k i n g the project with an appropriate set of transfers of money between gainers and losers -even i f in fact these transfers w i l l not take place." Thus, i f a tr a n s p o r t a t i o n investment creates b e n e f i t s to community members which exceed costs (e.g., through savings i n v e h i c l e operating costs, user time savings, e t c . ) , then a p o t e n t i a l Pareto improvement e x i s t s and the project can be considered worthwhile. 2.2.2 Approach Taken i n t h i s Study T r a d i t i o n a l economic evaluations of urban road p r o j e c t s have tended to be made at an aggregate l e v e l , using system-wide average speeds applied to an aggregate demand. For example, evaluations of the Spadina Expressway i n Toronto assumed an average speed of 20 miles per hour on the a f f e c t e d road network and estimated a d a i l y demand of 155,400 v e h i c l e miles per mile on the network (Nowlan, pg 5) . Analysis at t h i s aggregate l e v e l ignores the s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n s i n speed which e x i s t on an urban network and the v a r i a t i o n s i n demand which e x i s t over the course of a day. This can be i l l u s t r a t e d i n a graph of user time costs f o r a t y p i c a l urban road segment. User time cost as a function of the volume-to-capacity r a t i o of a road segment i s presented i n Figure 2-2 below. 14 FIGURE 2-2 TIME COST USER TIME COST AS A FUNCTION OF VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIO VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIO In e v a l u a t i n g t h e i m p a c t s o f a p r o j e c t , t h i s c o s t f u n c t i o n r a i s e s t h r e e i s s u e s : 1) C o s t s do not v a r y l i n e a r l y w i t h use on a segment, 2) Use i s not u n i f o r m a l o n g a segment c o n s i s t i n g o f s e v e r a l i n t e r s e c t i o n s , and 3) I n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s between segments e x i s t a t a system-wide l e v e l and thu s changes i n t h e c o s t s on one segment c o u l d a f f e c t many segments. The a p p r o a c h used i n t h i s s t u d y i s t o undertake a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e r o a d s y s t e m i n F a i r b a n k s . T h i s a n a l y s i s e n t a i l s a more r e f i n e d breakdown o f t h e r o a d network. The network i s d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l l i n k s f o r which o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s a r e t o be c a l c u l a t e d . S i n c e t h e o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s on u r ban r o a d s t y p i c a l l y e x h i b i t wide v a r i a t i o n s between peak and o f f peak use and i n u s e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , l i n k o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s a r e e s t i m a t e d f o r v a r i o u s t i m e s o f day, a c c o u n t i n g f o r d i f f e r i n g auto occupancy and v e h i c l e mix. T h i s p r o v i d e s a system-wide a n a l y s i s o f t h e p r o j e c t which r e c o g n i z e s 1 5 t h a t , as each l i n k i s a part of the o v e r a l l network, a change i n an i n d i v i d u a l l i n k can be expected to have an e f f e c t on some or a l l the other l i n k s ( G r i f f i t h s , pg 36). This approach allows for more accurate estimates of the l e v e l of b e n e f i t s . More importantly, i t can be used to determine the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the benefits (for example by time of day, road segments or geographic area). The process taken i n evaluating the p r o j e c t i s diagrammed i n Figure 2-3. E s s e n t i a l l y , the system analysis provides the base data used i n determining both user costs and non-u3er impacts. A dotted l i n e connects the system a n a l y s i s and p r o j e c t costs i n reference to recognize that under normal circumstances, the system a n a l y s i s would precede the development of a l t e r n a t i v e s and hence any p r o j e c t cost estimates. The system a n a l y s i s e n t a i l s d e f i n i n g that part of the e x i s t i n g road system l i k e l y to be affected by the p r o j e c t and developing a set of road system c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (e.g., volume, capacity, peaking c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , speeds, e t c . ) . This analysis i s presented i n Chapter Three. User costs include v e h i c l e operating costs, user time costs and accident costs and are presented i n Chapter Four. The a n a l y s i s of p r o j e c t costs provides input f o r the formal e v a l u a t i o n . Non-user impacts are presented i n Chapter F i v e and, while these impacts would i d e a l l y be evaluated i n an SBCA, they are not considered i n t h i s e v a l u a t i o n as a monetary value can not e a s i l y be attached to them. Their importance i n the f i n a l decision-making process i s i n d i c a t e d by a dotted arrow connected to the evaluation. The evaluation i t s e l f i s presented i n Chapter Five and e n t a i l s the c a l c u l a t i o n of p r o j e c t b e n e f i t s to e x i s t i n g t r a f f i c (user costs without the project l e s s user costs with the p r o j e c t ) , 16 ricjura 2-3 Procasa (or Projact Evaluation SYSTEM ANALYSIS (with and without prnjft^) • NETWORK DEFINITION • NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS • DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS • SPEED-ROW RELATIONSHIPS • TRAVEL TIMES • TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS PROJECT COSTS •CONSTRUCTION • MAINTENANCE : C h a p t e r .Three. Ghapler Two NON-USER COSTS * AIR POLLUTION * NOISE * OTHER PROJECT IMPACTS USER COSTS * VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS * USER TIME COSTS •ACCIDENT COSTS Chapter Four Chapter Five EVALUATION ' • CALCULATION OF BENEFITS TO EXISTING TRAFFIC • ESTIMATION OF BENEFITS TO GENERATED TRAFFIC • COMPARISON OF DISCOUNTED COSTS AND BENEFITS " SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Chapter Five 17 t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f b e n e f i t s t o g e n e r a t e d t r a f f i c a n d a c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e t o t a l p r o j e c t b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s d i s c o u n t e d o v e r t h e l i f e o f t h e p r o j e c t . S e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n t o c h a n g e s i n t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e , p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , a n d t h e v a l u e o f u s e r t i m e i s a n a l y z e d . W h i l e a c o m p l e t e s t u d y w o u l d e n t a i l t h e a n a l y s i s o f p r e s e n t a n d f o r e c a s t d e m a n d a n d s u p p l y c o n d i t i o n s i n a r r i v i n g a t a s e t o f p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e i n v e s t m e n t s , t h i s c a s e s t u d y l i m i t s i t s e l f t o t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a s i n g l e p r o j e c t , t h e G e i s t R o a d E x t e n s i o n i n F a i r b a n k s , A l a s k a . A s w e l l , g i v e n i t s s c a l e , a s e p a r a t e e v a l u a t i o n o f s e g m e n t s o f t h e p r o j e c t m i g h t p r o v i d e m o r e m e a n i n g f u l i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s o f e a c h p a r t . H o w e v e r , g i v e n t h e l a c k o f r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d t o c a r r y o u t t h i s a n a l y s i s , a n d t o k e e p t h e i l l u s t r a t i o n s i m p l e , t h e p r o j e c t a s a w h o l e i s e v a l u a t e d i n t h i s c a s e s t u d y . 2 . 3 P r o j e c t C o s t s T h i s s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s t h e e s t i m a t e d p r o j e c t c o s t s f o r t h e G e i s t R o a d E x t e n s i o n . G e n e r a l l y , t h e s e c o s t s a r e s u b d i v i d e d i n t o c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s . G i v e n t h e e i g h t - y e a r c o n s t r u c t i o n s c h e d u l e , i t i s i m p o r t a n t i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e p r o j e c t t o a c c u r a t e l y a s s i g n t h e p r o j e c t c o s t s o n a n a n n u a l b a s i s . T h i s e n s u r e s t h a t t h e c o s t s a r e c o r r e c t l y d i s c o u n t e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e i r p r e s e n t v a l u e . T h i s e n t a i l s b r e a k i n g p r o j e c t c o s t s d o w n b y t h e s e c t i o n s w h i c h • a r e t o b e c o m p l e t e d e a c h y e a r a n d a s s i g n i n g m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s o n l y t o t h o s e s e c t i o n s w h i c h a r e c o m p l e t e d . 2 . 3 . 1 C o n s t r u c t i o n C o s t s T a b l e 2 - 1 p r o v i d e s a b r e a k d o w n o f c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s . T h e s e c o s t s i n c l u d e p r o j e c t e n g i n e e r i n g ( d e s i g n ) , r i g h t - o f - w a y a c q u i s i t i o n , c o n s t r u c t i o n , a n d 1 8 u t i l i t i e s c o s t s . Cost estimates of each of these components are made f o r f i v e s e c t i o n s of the highway. These sections are h i g h l i g h t e d i n Figure 2-1. Table 2-1 a l s o presents a schedule of c o n s t r u c t i o n i s presented i n d i c a t i n g when each s e c t i o n i s to be s t a r t e d , and the estimated time of completion. Summarizing, c o n s t r u c t i o n i s scheduled to begin i n September of 1985, and w i l l be completed by l a t e 1993. The t o t a l c o s t i s estimated to be 116.1 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . I t should be noted that the I l l i n o i s S t r e e t s e c t i o n of the p r o j e c t involves improvements to e x i s t i n g s e c t i o n s of the network. As t h i s s e c t i o n i s not scheduled f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n u n t i l 1992, the m a j o r i t y of the added c a p a c i t y w i l l be completed by 1991. Table 2-1 GEIST EXTENSION - PROJECT DEVELOPMENT COSTS 1985 Cost ($ M i l l i o n ) Sched. Corn-S t a r t p l e t e S e c t i o n P.E. ROW Const U t i l T o t a l Const Con Peger - College 0.8 5.9 18.3 1.0 26.0 •86 •87 Lemeta - B i r c h H i l l 0.7 5.6 8.8 0.3 15.4 •88 •89 Aurora - Lemeta 1.2 3.2 18.4 0.7 23.5 '89 •90 I l l i n o i s 1.0 13.9 12.4 0.8 28.1 •92 '93 U n i v e r s i t y Ave. -Peger 0.9 5.5 16.5 0.2 23.1 '90 '91 TOTAL 4.6 34.1 74.4 3.0 116.1 P.E. - P r o j e c t engineering co3t3 ROW - Right of way C03ts Const. - Construction costs U t i l . - U t i l i t y costs Source: ADOT/PF Planning Section. 19 2.3.2 Maintenance Costa Maintenance costs were determined over the l i f e of the p r o j e c t based on average per lane mile cost estimates provided by the ADOT/PF D i v i s i o n of Maintenance. As the p r o j e c t w i l l be staged over s e v e r a l years, the maintenance costs were c a l c u l a t e d to r e f l e c t the a c t u a l amount of the pr o j e c t completed during each year up to 1993. These costs are presented i n Table 2-2. TABLE 2-2 Estimated Maintenance Cost3 -Geist Road Extension 1 ? -Six Lane - -Four Lane -Total Annual Lane Lane Maint. Year Miles Cost Miles Cost Cost 1987 4.86 61,236 -0- -0- 61,236 1988 4.86 61,236 -0- -0- 61,236 1989 4.86 61,236 20 .44 183,960 330,624 1991 11.64 146,664 20.44 183,960 330,624 1992 11.64 146,664 20.44 183,960 330,624 1993 11.64 146,664 21.04 183,960 336,024 1994-2005 11.64 146,664 21.04 189,360 336,024 1. $12, 600 per mile. 2. $9,000 per mile. Source: ADOT/PF D i v i s i o n of Maintenance. F O O T N O T E S C H A P T E R T W O 1. ADOT/PF i s the p u b l i c e n t i t y with the resources to c a r r y out much of the planning, design and implementation of most t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s i n the Fairbanks area. 20 CHAPTER THREE System Analysis 3.1 Introduction The purpose of t h i s chapter i s to assess the operating conditions on that part of the Fairbanks road system most a f f e c t e d by the proposed p r o j e c t . These o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s include volume/capacity r a t i o s and speed or t r a v e l time. These are inputs to the c a l c u l a t i o n of v e h i c l e operating costs, user time costs, accident costs and other project impacts. The data developed from the system analysis underlie a l l cost c a l c u l a t i o n s used i n the economic e v a l u a t i o n . The system a n a l y s i s i s the most da t a - i n t e n s i v e part of the process. This a n a l y s i s b u i l d s on estimates of the demand f o r use of the network and p r o j e c t i o n s of future demand, and requires data on operating conditions found on i n d i v i d u a l l i n k s which make up the network. Figure 3-1 diagrams the process taken i n analyzing the road system for t h i s case study. The f i r s t step i s to determine the primary road segments a f f e c t e d by the new p r o j e c t . These are e s s e n t i a l l y , the a r t e r i a l s surrounding the p r o j e c t . For the a f f e c t e d network, the next step i s to develop t r a f f i c volumes f o r base and forecast years, with and without the p r o j e c t . This i s done f o r each l i n k i n the network and can be accomplished u s i n g t r a d i t i o n a l urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n modelling techniques. Based on c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the road network (supply) and t r a v e l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (demand), the speed or t r a v e l time over each l i n k can be ca l c u l a t e d . Based on speeds, l e v e l s of congestion and t r a v e l time, v e h i c l e operating costs, user time c o s t s and a c c i d e n t costs can be estimated f o r d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s . 21 FIGURE 3 - 1 DIAGRAM OF SYSTEM ANALYSIS FOR PROJECT EVALUATION DETERMINE PRIMARY ROAD SEGMENTS AFFECTED BY PROJECT S e c t i o n ( 3 . 2 ) DEFINE LINKS AND NODES DEVELOP LINK VOLUMES FOR BASE AND FORECAST YEARS, WITH AND WITHOUT THE PROJECT S e c t i o n ( 3 . 3 ) BASED ON LINK VOLUMES/CAPCITY RATIOS, DETERMINE SPEEDS AND TRAVEL TIMES BY TIME OF DAY S e c t i o n ( 3 . 5 ) 0 TRIP GENERATION 0 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 0 MODAL SPLIT 0 TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT 0 TRAFFIC GROWTH RATES S e c t i o n ( 3 . 3 ) S e c t i o n (3.4) DETERMINE NODAL CHARACTERISTICS 0 LINK CAPACITY 0 LINK DISTANCE 0 AREA TYPE/FACILITY TYPE 0 SPEED/FLOW RELATIONSHIPS DETERMINE TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS 0 TRAFFIC BY TIME OF DAY 0 WEEKLY/SEASONAL VARIATIONS 0 TRIP PURPOSE DISTRIBUTION 0 AUTO OCCUPANCY 0 VEHICLE MIX S e c t i o n (3.4) SYSTEM COSTS (CHAPTER 4) 22 3 . 2 D e v e l o p m e n t o f N e t w o r k f o r A n a l y s i s F i g u r e 3 - 2 p r e s e n t s t h e r o a d network, i n c l u d i n g t h e p r o j e c t . H i g h l i g h t e d a r e t h e p r o j e c t a n d t h e p a r t o f t h e n e t w o r k m o s t a f f e c t e d b y t h e p r o j e c t . S i n c e o n e o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e p r o j e c t i s t o p r o v i d e m o r e e a s t - w e s t a r t e r i a l c a p a c i t y t h r o u g h t h e c e n t r a l a r e a , t h e e x i s t i n g e a s t - w e s t a r t e r i a l s a r e e x p e c t e d t o r e c e i v e t h e p r i m a r y i m p a c t s . A s w e l l , many o f t h e n o r t h - s o u t h a r t e r i a l s w h i c h i n t e r s e c t t h e e a s t - w e s t r o a d s w i l l a l s o b e a f f e c t e d . 3 . 3 D e v e l o p m e n t o f B a s e a n d F o r e c a s t L i n k V o l u m e s D a i l y l i n k v o l u m e s w e r e e s t a b l i s h e d f o r v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s . T h e s e s c e n a r i o s c o n s i d e r t h e n e t w o r k w i t h a n d w i t h o u t t h e p r o j e c t a n d t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f t r a f f i c o v e r t h e l i f e o f t h e p r o j e c t . T h i s s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s t h e b a s e a n d f o r e c a s t l i n k v o l u m e s t o b e u s e d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n . T h e b a s e y e a r o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n i s 1 9 8 6 . 3 . 3 . 1 M e t h o d f o r D e t e r m i n i n g L i n k V o l u m e s A s d i 3 c u s s s e d i n C h a p t e r Two, t h e s o u r c e f o r d a i l y t r a f f i c v o l u m e s b y l i n k i s t h e 1 9 8 5 FMATS U p d a t e . The v o l u m e s f o r t h e h i g h g r o w t h s c e n a r i o s w e r e p r o d u c e d b y t h e a s s i g n m e n t p r o c e d u r e o f t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f o u r - s t e p m o d e l l i n g p r o c e s s u s e d i n t h e U p d a t e . A m o d e r a t e g r o w t h s c e n a r i o was d e v e l o p e d f o r u s e i n t h i s e v a l u a t i o n b y a s s u m i n g s l o w e r g r o w t h r a t e s i n s e v e r a l o f t h e p a r a m e t e r s u s e d t o f o r e c a s t f u t u r e . t r a f f i c . The b a s i s f o r t h e s e v o l u m e s i s d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n t h r o u g h e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e f o u r - s t e p p r o c e d u r e ( t r i p g e n e r a t i o n , t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n s , mode c h o i c e , a n d t r i p a s s i g n m e n t ) u s e d i n t h e u p d a t e . 2 3 F i g u r e 3 - 2 P r o p o s e d P r o j e c t a n d A f f e c t e d N e t w o r k o o •u 2 24 3.3.1.1 T r i p Generation and D i s t r i b u t i o n The f i r s t two steps are concerned with the geographic interchange of t r i p s i n the area being studied. The study area i s u s u a l l y d i v i d e d into analysis zones. The f i r s t step of the modelling process, t r i p generation determines the number of t r i p s made i n the study area. The t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n step i n v o l v e s determining the r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of each zone and the development of a zone-to-zone t r i p t able. T r i p production f o r the FMATS Area was derived using a model which generates average d a i l y v e h i c l e t r i p productions f o r r e s i d e n t i a l t r a v e l f o r each zone based on average production rates by t r i p purpose (Home-Based Work (HBW), Home-Based Other (HBO), and Non-Home Based (NHB)) f o r three household s i z e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s (DCCO 1983, pg 4): o 1 or 2 member households o 3 or 4 member households o 5 or more member households The t r i p production rates for t h i s model were obtained from a 1983 telephone survey of 284 households i n the Fairbanks area and are presented i n Table 3-1. Using the 1983 t r a v e l survey as a b a s i s , average d a i l y v e h i c l e t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s f o r each zone were derived by DCCO using regression analysis to obtain equations between t r i p purpose and various parameters including: DUS = Number of dwelling units TOTEMP = To t a l employment RETEMP = R e t a i l employment OTHEMP = Other employment SCHATT = School attendance 25 T h e f i n a l e q u a t i o n s u s e d i n t h e u p d a t e a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 3 - 1 . A s w i l l b e d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r b e l o w , t h e s e a t t r a c t i o n e q u a t i o n s w e r e u s e d i n d e v e l o p i n g e s t i m a t e s f o r a r e a - w i d e d a i l y t r i p v o l u m e s w h e r e FMATS U p d a t e i n f o r m a t i o n was n o t a v a i l a b l e . TABLE 3 - 1 FMATS T r i p G e n e r a t i o n F a c t o r s T r i p P r o d u c t i o n R a t e s P e r HH ( E x c l u d e s F t . W a i n w r i g h t ) HH S i z e G r o u p HBW HBO NHB A l l T r i p s 1 - 2 1 . 1 5 1 . 6 1 2 . 8 7 5 . 6 3 3 - 4 1 . 5 7 3 . 3 3 . 6 9 8 . 5 6 5 - 6 2 . 5 6 3 . 3 6 3 . 4 9 . 3 2 Wt. A v g . T o t a l 1 . 3 6 2 . 1 5 3 . 1 1 6 . 6 2 T r i p A t t r a c t i o n E q u a t i o n s T r i p P u r p o s e E q u a t i o n H o m e b a s e d w o r k HBW = 1 . 3 7 8 2 (TOTEMP) - 1 5 . 3 4 H o m e b a s e d o t h e r HBO = . 8 2 7 6 (DUS) + 3 . 5 6 5 9 (RETEMP) + . 2 8 3 7 (OTHEMP) + . 2 1 3 2 (SCHATT) - 3 . 6 6 N o n - H o m e b a s e d NHB = 1 . 2 5 9 4 (DUS) + 5 . 3 0 2 8 (RETEMP) + 1 . 2 4 0 (OTHEMP) + . 0 2 9 4 6 (SCHATT) - 3 . 6 6 T h e z o n e - t o - z o n e t r i p t a b l e was d e v e l o p e d u s i n g t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l e x p r e s s e d a s f o l l o w s (DCCO, 1 9 8 3 , p 1 7 ) : T i j = P i * A i F i n K i j ^ A j F i j K i j j = l 2 6 w h e r e , T i j = t r i p s p r o d u c e d i n a n a l y s i s a r e a i , a n d a t t r a c t e d a t z o n e j ; P i = t o t a l t r i p p r o d u c t i o n a t i ; A i = t o t a l t r i p a t t r a c t i o n a t j ; F i j = f r i c t i o n f a c t o r f o r t r i p i n t e r c h a n g e i j ; a n d r e p r e s e n t s t h e " f r i c t i o n " o r r e l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n f a c t o r s r e p r e s e n t i n g a d i m i n i s h i n g f u n c t i o n o f T i j ; K i j = s o c i o e c o n o m i c a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r f o r i n t e r c h a n g e i j i f n e c e s s a r y t i j = t r a v e l t i m e ( o r i m p e d a n c e ) f o r i n t e r c h a n g e i j ; i = o r i g i n a n a l y s i s a r e a number, i = 1 , 2 , 3 . . .n; j = d e s t i n a t i o n a n a l y s i s a r e a number, j = 1 , 2 , 3 . . .n; n = n u m b e r o f z o n e s 3 . 3 . 1 . 2 Mode S p l i t I n F a i r b a n k s , p u b l i c t r a n s i t h a s a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l s h a r e o f t o t a l h o u s e h o l d t r i p s , w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 . 2 p e r c e n t o f d a i l y p e r s o n t r i p s . G i v e n t h e s y s t e m ' s s m a l l s i z e i t i s f e l t t h a t a n y i m p a c t s t h e p r o j e c t m i g h t h a v e o n i t w o u l d b e e q u a l l y s m a l l . F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e e v a l u a t i o n f o c u s e s o n a u t o a n d t r u c k t r a f f i c o n l y . 3 . 3 . 1 . 3 T r a f f i c A s s i g n m e n t I n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a p r o j e c t , t h e f i n a l p r o d u c t o f t h e f o u r s t e p m o d e l l i n g p r o c e s s - t h e l i n k v o l u m e s , i s a c r i t i c a l i n p u t . L i n k v o l u m e s d e t e r m i n e t h e t r a v e l t i m e a n d c a n a f f e c t v e h i c l e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , a c c i d e n t l e v e l s , a s w e l l a s n o i s e a n d a i r p o l l u t i o n l e v e l s . T h u s , i t i 3 i m p o r t a n t t o e n s u r e a r e a s o n a b l y a c c u r a t e a s s i g n m e n t o f t r a f f i c . I d e a l l y t h e p r o b l e m o f t r a f f i c a s s i g n m e n t m i g h t b e b e t t e r s t a t e d i n t e r m s o f r o u t e c h o i c e , w h e r e t h e o b j e c t i v e o f m i n i m i z i n g t o t a l t r a v e l t i m e c a n b e r e c o g n i z e d e x p l i c i t l y a n d a n " e q u i l i b r i u m " s o l u t i o n r e a c h e d w h e r e i n n o d r i v e r c a n i m p r o v e h i s t r a v e l t i m e b y c h a n g i n g r o u t e s ( K a n a f a n i , p g 206). W h i l e p r a c t i c a l e q u i l i b r i u m a s s i g n m e n t m e t h o d s h a v e e x i s t e d f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s a n d a r e r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e f o r u s e i n t h e w e l l k n o w n U T P S p a c k a g e o f m o d e l s , l i t t l e u s e h a s b e e n m a d e o f t h e m i n p r a c t i c e ( E a s h , p g 1 ) . I n s t e a d , m o r e t r a d i t i o n a l a l l - o r - n o t h i n g a n d c a p a c i t y r e s t r a i n t m e t h o d s h a v e b e e n u s e d ( E a s h , p g 1 ) . T h e F M A T S U p d a t e i n c l u d e d b o t h a l l - o r - n o t h i n g a n d c a p a c i t y r e s t r a i n e d a s s i g n m e n t s . F o r p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s t u d y t h e c a p a c i t y r e s t r a i n e d a s s i g n m e n t s w e r e u s e d a s t h e y a r e c l o s e r t h a n t h e a l l - o r - n o t h i n g t o a n e q u i l i b r i u m a s s i g n m e n t . T h e s e l e c t i o n o f a p a r t o f t h e t o t a l n e t w o r k f o r e v a l u a t i o n p u r p o s e s p o s e s a n a d d i t i o n a l p r o b l e m i n a s s i g n i n g t r a f f i c . I t i s n o t a p p r o p r i a t e t o a t t e m p t t o a s s i g n a l l t r i p s i n t h e a r e a t o t h e p a r t i a l n e t w o r k ( t h i s p a r a l l e l s t h e p r o b l e m s i n a n a l l - o r - n o t h i n g a s s i g n m e n t ) . T h e r e s u l t i s t h a t l i n k v o l u m e s o n t h e p a r t i a l n e t w o r k m u s t b e t a k e n f r o m a c o m p l e t e n e t w o r k a s s i g n m e n t . A n e v a l u a t i o n t y p i c a l l y r e q u i r e s t w o a s s i g n m e n t s t o r e f l e c t t h e n e t w o r k w i t h a n d w i t h o u t t h e p r o j e c t , f o r a t l e a s t a b a s e y e a r a n d a h o r i z o n y e a r . I n a d d i t i o n a s s i g n m e n t s c o u l d b e m a d e t o a s s e s s t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n t o t h e g r o w t h i n t r a f f i c , p e a k t r a f f i c , s h i f t s i n l a n d u s e , a n d c h a n g e s i n t r a v e l b e h a v i o r ( h o u s e h o l d s i z e , a u t o o w n e r s h i p , e t c ) . E v e n 28 though the network, used i n the FMATS Update i s r e l a t i v e l y small (160 zones and approximately 1,000 l i n k s ) , and while s u b s t a n t i a l aggregation of zones might be done to reduce the work, manual assignment i s v i r t u a l l y impossible 3 i n t h i s case. Given that resources were not a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s case study to carry out complete computer-assisted network assignments, a method was developed by which l i n k volumes under various scenarios could be approximated. The method involves the use of assignments f o r 1980 and 2005 developed i n the FMATS Update. These assignments represent the network with (2005) and without (1980) the p r o j e c t . To obtain the l i n k volumes required f o r the e v a l u a t i o n , the r a t i o of the p a r t i c u l a r assignment and t o t a l area wide 4 weekday t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s was c a l c u l a t e d and used as an assignment f a c t o r . T h i s assignment f a c t o r was then a p p l i e d to f o r e c a s t s of annual t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s during the l i f e of the p r o j e c t . For t h i s approach to be v a l i d , assumptions must be made that zone-to-zone t r i p interchanges are f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n a l l y during the l i f e of the pr o j e c t ( i . e . , t r a v e l between zone x and zone y i s always z percent of t o t a l t r i p ends), In other words, i t i s assumed that the project w i l l not cause dramatic s h i f t s i n t r a v e l behavior or land use patterns. This i s reasonable because the project i s an addition of east-west capacity within the e x i s t i n g urban area. While i t might allow f o r a more e f f i c i e n t routing for some t r i p s , i t w i l l not cause a major s h i f t i n the r e l a t i v e attractiveness of any area i n Fairbanks which might occur i f t h i s p r o j e c t were an extension of the urban road system out into undeveloped hi n t e r l a n d s . 29 I n a d d i t i o n , a d j u s t m e n t s h a d t o b e m a d e t o t h e 1 9 8 0 a s s i g n m e n t t o r e f l e c t t h e a d d i t i o n o f t h e S o u t h F a i r b a n k s E x p r e s s w a y ( c o m p l e t e d i n 1 9 8 6 ) , a n d t o r e f l e c t m o r e r e a l i s t i c a l l y t h e c o n d i t i o n s o n t h e n e t w o r k w i t h o u t t h e p r o j e c t . W h i l e t h e 1 9 8 0 a s s i g n m e n t p r o v i d e s a r e l e v a n t b a s e f o r " w i t h o u t p r o j e c t " a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s , i t d o e s n o t r e f l e c t t h e a c t u a l l e v e l o f u s e ( i n t e r m s o f l i n k A A D T / t o t a l a r e a - w i d e a t t r a c t i o n s ) w h i c h m i g h t b e e n c o u n t e r e d s h o u l d t h e c a p a c i t y o f t h e s y s t e m r e m a i n f i x e d . T o i l l u s t r a t e , b a s e d o n t h e 2 0 0 5 a s s i g n m e n t d e v e l o p e d i n t h e F M A T S U p d a t e i t w a s d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h e G e i s t E x t e n s i o n w o u l d h a n d l e a p p r o x i m a t l e y 5 . 8 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l a t t r a c t i o n s . ^ F o r p u r p o s e s o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n t h i s r e p r e s e n t s t r a f f i c d i v e r t e d f r o m e x i s t i n g r o u t e s . T h u s , w i t h o u t t h e p r o j e c t , t h i s 5.8 p e r c e n t m u s t b e r e d i s t r i b u t e d t o t h e e x i s t i n g r o a d s e g m e n t s i n s o m e m a n n e r . W h i l e t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e s e t r i p s s h o u l d b e a d d e d t o t h e p a r t i a l n e t w o r k u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y , s o m e o f t h e t r i p s w o u l d u s e r o a d s e g m e n t s w h i c h w e r e n o t p a r t o f t h i s p a r t i a l n e t w o r k . I t w a s f e l t t h a t a t l e a s t f i v e p e r c e n t o f t o t a l a t t r a c t i o n s ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y 86 p e r c e n t o f t h e G e i s t E x t e n s i o n v o l u m e ) s h o u l d b e a d d e d t o t h e e x i s t i n g n e t w o r k ; w i t h t w o p e r c e n t a d d e d t o a l l l i n k s o n C o l l e g e R o a d a n d A i r p o r t W a y a n d 0.5 p e r c e n t a d d e d t o P h i l l i p s F i e l d R o a d a n d t h e S o u t h F a i r b a n k s E x p r e s s w a y . T r a f f i c w a s a l s o i n c r e a s e d o n t h e m a j o r n o r t h - s o u t h r o u t e s , w i t h t w o p e r c e n t a d d e d t o l i n k s o n t h e S t e e s e E x p r e s s w a y a n d U n i v e r s i t y A v e n u e a n d o n e p e r c e n t a d d e d t o t h e I l l i n o i s C u s h m a n / B a r n e t t - S o u t h C u s h m a n r o a d s e g m e n t . T h e s e a l l o c a t i o n s w e r e m a d e b a s e d o n a j u d g m e n t o f t h e a p p r o x i m a t e c a p a c i t i e s o f a l t e r n a t i v e r o a d s e g m e n t s a n d l i k e l y u s e o f t h e s e r o a d s w h i c h m i g h t o c c u r w i t h o u t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t . I t w a s f e l t t h a t A i r p o r t R o a d a n d C o l l e g e R o a d 30 w o u l d h a n d l e t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e t r a f f i c w h i l e t h e S o u t h F a i r b a n k s E x p r e s s w a y a n d P h i l l i p s F i e l d R o a d w o u l d h a n d l e r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e . A d j u s t m e n t o f t h e w i t h o u t p r o j e c t a s s i g n m e n t t o r e f l e c t t h e a d d i t i o n o f t h e S o u t h F a i r b a n k s E x p r e s s w a y ( S F E ) w a s a c c o m p l i s h e d b y u s i n g t h e S F E a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s f o r 2 0 0 5 a s a b a s e a n d a d d i n g 0 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s a s d e s c r i b e d a b o v e . A s p r o j e c t c o n s t r u c t i o n i s b e i n g s t a g e d o v e r s e v e r a l y e a r s ( 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 3 ) a d j u s t m e n t s t o t h e t r a f f i c a s s i g n m e n t s " w i t h p r o j e c t " w e r e a l s o n e c e s s a r y . T o d o t h i s r e q u i r e s t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g n e t w o r k r e s e m b l e s o m e f o r m o f t h e n e t w o r k " w i t h o u t p r o j e c t " u n t i l t h e p r o j e c t i s c o m p l e t e d a n d t r a f f i c d i v e r s i o n t o t h e p r o j e c t i s 1 0 0 p e r c e n t . T h i s w a s a c c o m p l i s h e d b y u s i n g " w i t h o u t p r o j e c t " a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s f o r e a c h o f t h e e x i s t i n g l i n k s t o w h i c h t h e G e i s t v o l u m e s h a d b e e n a d d e d ( a s d i s c u s s e d a b o v e ) . A s v a r i o u s p a r t s o f t h e p r o j e c t w e r e a d d e d t o t h e n e t w o r k , a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s o f t h e " w i t h o u t p r o j e c t " link3 w a s m a d e e q u a l t o t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e v o l u m e a d d e d t o t h e p r o j e c t . * * T h u s , b y 1 9 9 1 , w i t h t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e e a s t - w e s t p o r t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t , a l l l i n k a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s a r e " w i t h p r o j e c t " . T h e f o l l o w i n g p e r c e n t a g e r e d u c t i o n s w e r e m a d e t o t h e a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s o f e x i s t i n g l i n k s o v e r t h e p e r i o d o f c o n s t r u c t i o n : 1 9 8 6 - 0 -1 9 8 7 1 . 2 1 1 9 8 8 - 0 -1 9 8 9 0 . 8 2 1 9 9 0 1 . 6 3 1 9 9 1 1 . 3 4 3 1 S i n c e I l l i n o i s S t r e e t i s a l s o p a r t o f t h e p r o j e c t , i t s a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s w e r e a f f e c t e d s o m e w h a t d i f f e r e n t l y t h e n t h e r e s t o f t h e e x i s t i n g n e t w o r k . O n c e t h e e a s t - w e s t p o r t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t t i e s i n t o I l l i n o i s ( 1 9 8 9 ) , t h e a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s f o r t h i s r o a d s e g m e n t w e r e c h a n g e d f r o m " w i t h o u t p r o j e c t " t o " w i t h p r o j e c t " . I t s i m p r o v e m e n t s o c c u r i n 1 9 9 3 ( w i d e n i n g t o i n c r e a s e c a p a c i t y ) a n d a r e r e c o g n i z e d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n i n 1 9 9 4 . W h i l e t h i s i s a n a d h o c a p p r o a c h t o o b t a i n i n g l i n k v o l u m e s i t d o e s p r o v i d e r e a s o n a b l e r e s u l t s f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s c a s e s t u d y . C o n f i d e n c e i n t h e v o l u m e s p r o d u c e d b y t h i s m e t h o d c a n b e c h e c k e d b y c o m p a r i n g t h e a s s i g n m e n t f a c t o r s o f b o t h a s s i g n m e n t s . I f t h e r e i s s o m e c o n s i s t e n c y b e t w e e n t h e p a t t e r n s o f t h e 1 9 8 0 a n d 2 0 0 5 a s s i g n m e n t s , m o r e c o n f i d e n c e c a n b e h a d w h e n a p p l y i n g t h e f a c t o r s t o i n t e r m e d i a t e y e a r s ( a g a i n a s s u m i n g n o m a j o r s h i f t s i n l a n d u s e ) . F i g u r e 3 - 3 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e t w o a s s i g n m e n t s . W h i l e t h e r e a r e d i f f e r e n c e s i n p e r c e n t a g e l e v e l s , e a c h r o a d s e g m e n t w o u l d a p p e a r t o h a v e s i m i l a r p a t t e r n s o f t r a f f i c v o l u m e s i n b o t h 1 9 8 0 a n d 2 0 0 5 . 3 . 3 . 2 F o r e c a s t s o f T r a f f i c F o r e c a s t s o f t r a f f i c w e r e d e v e l o p e d f o r t w o s c e n a r i o s ; h i g h a n d m o d e r a t e g r o w t h . F o r e a c h s c e n a r i o e s t i m a t e s o f t o t a l t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s w e r e m a d e f o r 1 9 8 6 , 1 9 9 5 , a n d 2 0 0 5 . S i n c e 1 9 8 6 d a t a w e r e n o t a v a i l a b l e , e s t i m a t e s o f 1 9 8 6 t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s w e r e e x t r a p o l a t e d f r o m 1 9 8 4 d a t a b a s e d o n a v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h b e t w e e n 1 9 8 4 a n d 1 9 8 5 . A s n o t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h e F M A T S U p d a t e w a s c a r r i e d o u t w i t h t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f a h i g h g r o w t h s c e n a r i o " i n o r d e r t o a s s e s s t h e ' w o r s t c a s e ' t r a f f i c g e n e r a t i o n " ( D C C O , 1 9 8 5 , p g I I - 9 ) . T h i s s c e n a r i o h a d a n a n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e b e t w e e n 1 9 8 4 a n d 1 9 9 5 o f 4 - 5 p e r c e n t d r o p p i n g t o 1 - 3 p e r c e n t b e t w e e n 1 9 9 5 a n d 2 0 0 5 . 32 F i g u r e 3-3 DAILY LINK VOLUMES AS A.PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ATTRACTIONS (1980 AND 2005) 5HADED= WITH PROJECT LINE= WITHOUT PROJECT 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 PCT OF TOTAL ATTRACTIONS To t e s t the s e n s i t i v i t y of the evaluation to d i f f e r e n c e s i n rate of growth, a more moderate l e v e l of growth was forecast. In l i g h t of the recent drop i n o i l p r i c e s , a more moderate rate of growth than that presented i n the FMATS Update would seem p l a u s i b l e . The moderate growth f o r e c a s t s were developed by adjusting downward the forecasts of t r i p a t t r a c t i o n parameters (dwelling u n i t , employment and school attendance) on a zonal b a s i s . The percentage change i n these parameters between 1984 and 1995 and 1995 and 2005 were reduced to 75 percent of the high growth estimates. Using the t r i p a t t r a c t i o n equations described above, estimates of t o t a l d a i l y v e h i c l e t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s were developed for the s p e c i f i e d years. Because there i s no e x p l i c i t recognition i n the four-step modelling process of the e f f e c t s of transportation supply on the l e v e l of demand f o r t r a v e l , these forecasts cannot be s a i d to include t r i p s generated as a r e s u l t of the p r o j e c t (Mainheim, pg 437). To address t h i s ommission and since the estimation of generated t r a f f i c requires an estimate of the change i n t o t a l t r a v e l costs, t h i s issue i s dealt with i n more d e t a i l i n Chapter Five. The method described above produces the f o l l o w i n g forecasts of t o t a l d a i l y v e h i c l e t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s : These t r i p s w i l l be used to determine i n d i v i d u a l l i n k volumes f o r the respective years applying the assignment method described i n Section 3.3.1. Link volumes by year for each scenario are presented i n Appendix A. Year High Growth Moderate Growth 1986 1995 2005 238335 314447 361800 233601 281592 309443 34 3.4 Network and Travel C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s As d escribed i n Figure 3-1, once l i n k t r a f f i c volumes have been estimated network and t r a v e l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s need to be i d e n t i f i e d to a i d i n the c a l c u l a t i o n of l i n k operating conditions. Network c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s include l i n k c a p a c i t i e s , d i s t a n c e , f a c i l i t y type, and area type. T r a v e l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n c l u d e the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r a f f i c by time of day, d i s t r i b u t i o n of d a i l y t r i p s by t r i p purpose, auto occupancy by t r i p purpose, d i r e c t i o n a l flows by time of day, and ve h i c l e mix. As well, i t i s important to consider v a r i a t i o n s i n t r a f f i c by day of week ( p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r weekend vs weekday t r i p s ) and seasonal f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t r a f f i c . 3.4.1 Network C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Link c a p a c i t i e s , distances, f a c i l i t y types and area types are taken from the FMATS Update. Link c a p a c i t i e s are c a l c u l a t e d based on the p a r t i c u l a r f a c i l i t y type and area type i n which the l i n k has been c l a s s i f i e d . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between a r e a / f a c i l i t y type and c a p a c i t y i s based on the Q research contained i n the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual (HRB, 1965). As w i l l be discussed f u r t h e r below, the a r e a / f a c i l i t y type r e l a t i o n s h i p s are als o the basis f o r the c a l c u l a t i o n of l i n k speeds f o r d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of use. Link c a p a c i t i e s and other network c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s used i n the evaluation are presented i n Appendix A. 3.4.2 Travel C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 3.4.2.1 Time of Day C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Figure 3-4 i l l u s t r a t e s a f i v e year average v a r i a t i o n i n t r a f f i c by time of day f o r many of the road segments a f f e c t e d by the project. While a l l routes 35 Figure 3-4 PERCENT OF AADT SOURCE: ALASKA DOT/PF TRAFFIC VOLUME REPORTS (1979-1983) 36 t e n d t o f o l l o w s i m i l a r p a t t e r n s , t h e r e d o e 3 a p p e a r t o b e s o m e d i f f e r e n c e s d u r i n g t h e m i d d a y p e r i o d ( 8 a m - 4 p m ) . F o u r t i m e p e r i o d s w e r e c l a s s i f i e d f o r w h i c h o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d b e c a l c u l a t e d : o M o r n i n g p e a k - 6 a m t o 8 p m o M i d d a y - 8 a m t o 4 p m o E v e n i n g P e a k - 4 p m t o 6 p m o O t h e r - 6 p m t o 6 a m F o r e a c h o f t h e s e t i m e p e r i o d s a n a v e r a g e h o u r l y d i s t r i b u t i o n w a s d e t e r m i n e d f o r r o a d s e g m e n t s w h e r e d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e . T h e s e p e r c e n t a g e s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 3-2. F o r r o a d s e g m e n t s w h e r e d a t a w e r e n o t a v a i l a b l e p e r c e n t a g e s f r o m a d j a c e n t r o a d s w e r e u s e d . T h e s e p e r c e n t a g e s a r e u s e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e l i f e o f t h e p r o j e c t , w h i c h a s s u m e s t h a t h o u r l y v a r i a t i o n s o f t r a f f i c w i l l r e m a i n c o n s t a n t d u r i n g t h i s t i m e . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n d o e s n o t i n v a l i d a t e t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n , t h o u g h p e a k t r a v e l o f t e n r e c e i v e s t h e b u l k o f t h e b e n e f i t s o f a d d e d c a p a c i t y a n d a n e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e b e n e f i t s o f " s p r e a d i n g " p e a k t r a v e l m i g h t y i e l d i n s i g h t s o n a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l c a p a c i t y . O n e c o n c e r n w a s t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e d i r e c t i o n a l s p l i t o f t r a f f i c o n t h e s e r o a d s e g m e n t s m i g h t a f f e c t t h e e v a l u a t i o n . O f t e n , o n e d i r e c t i o n ( u s u a l l y i n b o u n d t o d o w n t o w n i n t h e m o r n i n g a n d o u t b o u n d i n t h e e v e n i n g ) h a s m u c h h i g h e r v o l u m e t h e n t h e o t h e r . T h i s c a n a f f e c t s p e e d s a n d t h u s o p e r a t i n g c o s t s d i f f e r e n t l y t h e n i f a 5 0 - 5 0 s p l i t i s a s s u m e d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , f o r m a n y o f t h e l i n k s , i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e d i r e c t i o n a l s p l i t w a s n o t a v a i l a b l e . 37 TABLE 3-2 Average Annual Hourly D i s t r i b u t i o n (% of Road Segment AADT) Road Segment 6am-8am 8am-4pm 4pm-6pm 6pm-6am Ai r p o r t Road 3 6.1 7.89 2.47 Un i v e r s i t y Ave. 3.42 6.05 8.23 2.4 College Road 2.68 6.17 8.41 2.39 Cushman Street 2.38 7.05 7.98 1.93 Peger Road 3.42 6.7 8.19 1.95 Parks Highway 3.6 5.45 7.9 2.8 Source: Alaska DOT/PF Annual T r a f f i c Volume Reports 1979-1983. However, i t was found that, f o r the network being analyzed, the use of an average percentage of the t o t a l t r a f f i c moving i n both d i r e c t i o n s ( i e , a 50-50 s p l i t ) d i d not have a s i g n i f i c a n t a f f e c t on estimation of l i n k speeds (the e s t i m a t i o n of speeds i s discussed i n d e t a i l i n Section 3.5). To i l l u s t r a t e , the greatest v a r i a t i o n was exhibited on Un i v e r s i t y Avenue. The di f f e r e n c e s between the use of an average percentage for both d i r e c t i o n s and the a c t u a l percentages ex h i b i t e d i n the data using 1983 volumes lead to an underestimate of the speed i n the nor t h e r l y d i r e c t i o n by . 65 mph and an overestimate of the speed i n the southerly d i r e c t i o n by .94 mph, f o r a net underestimate i n the speed of .29 mph. Taking U n i v e r s i t y Avenue's distance of 1.04 miles, t h i s d i f f e r e n c e i n speeds t r a n s l a t e s into a d i f f e r e n c e i n t r a v e l time per auto of under 3 seconds. While t h i s difference might become more pronounced as t r a f f i c volumes approach the capacity of the roadway, f o r example, a doubling of the AADT, the d i f f e r e n c e i n t r a v e l time i s s t i l l under 15 seconds. Given the imprecise nature of speed-flow r e l a t i o n s h i p s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y on urban s t r e e t s ) , t h i s d i f f e r e n c e cannot be taken as c r i t i c a l . 38 O n t h e w h o l e , i t i s c o n c l u d e d f r o m t h i s a n a l y s i s t h a t t h e d i r e c t i o n a l s p l i t s e x h i b i t e d i n F a i r b a n k s a r e n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t a s t o r e q u i r e e x p l i c i t t r e a t m e n t i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n . 3 . 4 . 2 . 2 W e e k l y a n d S e a s o n a l V a r i a t i o n i n T r a f f i c I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e h o u r l y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r a f f i c , v a r i a t i o n s b y d a y o f w e e k a n d s e a s o n a l v a r i a t i o n s w e r e a n a l y z e d . T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s e v a r i a t i o n s a f f e c t h o w t h e a n n u a l c o s t s a r e t o b e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m d a i l y c o s t s . F r o m a n a l y s i s o f t r a f f i c d i s t r i b u t i o n b y d a y o f w e e k o n t h e r o a d s e g m e n t s b e i n g e v a l u a t e d i t w a s f o u n d t h a t w e e k d a y t r a f f i c ( M o n d a y - F r i d a y ) i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 2 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e A A D T o n t h e r o a d s e g m e n t ; w i t h S a t u r d a y s a n d S u n d a y s a v e r a g i n g 6 0 a n d 4 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e A A D T r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h u s , S a t u r d a y a n d S u n d a y v o l u m e s c a n b e s a i d t o b e 5 0 a n d 3 3 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y , o f a v e r a g e v o l u m e s d u r i n g a w e e k d a y ( t h e b a s i s f o r v o l u m e s u s e d i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n ) . F o r p u r p o s e s o f d a i l y c o s t s , t h e e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d a b o v e l e a d s t o t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n s : W e e k d a y s = 2 5 1 d a y s S a t u r d a y s a n d H o l i d a y s = 6 2 * . 5 = 3 1 d a y s ( a s s u m e s 1 0 w e e k d a y h o l i d a y s e q u a l t o S a t u r d a y t r a f f i c p a t t e r n s ) S u n d a y s = 5 2 * . 3 3 = 1 7 d a y s T o t a l = 2 9 9 d a y s 3 9 Thus d a i l y network costs f o r each scenario developed i n Chapter Four w i l l be f a c t o r e d up by 299 days to a r r i v e at annual costs to be U 3 e d i n Chapter Five . This assumes sev e r a l things. F i r s t , the assumption i s made that t r a f f i c volumes do not vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y Monday through F r i d a y . This pattern has been found to e x i s t i n many t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s (Dickey, pg 170). Second, when weekend costs are estimated by a percentage reduction of weekday costs dependent on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between weekday and weekend volumes (as i s the case here) the assumption i s made that there i s a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between d a i l y costs and volumes on a network. P a r t i c u l a r l y i n the case of hourly costs, t h i s i s not s t r i c t l y v a l i d as costs tend to r i s e more r a p i d l y then the r i s e i n volumes on any given l i n k due to congestion f a c t o r s . Following from the second assumption, i t i s also assumed that weekend and weekday t r a f f i c e x h i b i t s i m i l a r peaking c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Again, t h i s i s not s t r i c t l y v a l i d . However, since the impact of weekend costs on the e v a l u a t i o n i s s u f f i c i e n t l y small (approximately 16 percent of annual costs using t h i s method) i t i s f e l t that the a d d i t i o n a l work involved to compute these costs separately i s not warranted. The e f f e c t of t h i s method i s to l i k e l y overestimate weekend d a i l y costs. 3.4.2.3 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Dai l y Trips by Tr i p Purpose The 1982 household survey conducted during the FMATS Update provided data on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of d a i l y t r i p by t r i p purpose as well as the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r i p types by time of day. This i s useful i n assigning d i f f e r e n t values of time to d i f f e r e n t t r i p types (this i s discussed f u r t h e r i n Chapter Four). 40 The d i s t r i b u t i o n of d a i l y t r i p s by t r i p purpose was as follows (DCCO, 1985, page 11-37) : T r i p Type Home-Based Work (HBW) Home-Based Other (HBO) Non Home-Based (NHB) Percent of Da i l y Trips 21 34.5 44.5 T r i p types d i s t r i b u t e d by time of day were as follows: Time of Day 6 a m - 8 a m 3am - 4pm 4pm - 6pm 6pm - 6am Percent of T r i p Percent of Total Type f or t h i s Auto Tr i p s T r i p Type HBW HBO NHB HBW HBO NHB HBW HBO NHB HBW HBO NHB Time of Day 26 6 3 20 21 18 37 43 68 17 30 11 Time of Day 60.8 23.4 15.8 18.4 29.6 52.0 21 37 .7 41.3 21 34.5 44.5 The percentage of t o t a l auto t r i p s f o r each t r i p type was a v a i l a b l e from the survey f o r the AM, Midday and PM peak periods only. The d a i l y d i s t r i b u t i o n percentages were applied to the "other" time period as no s p e c i f i c data were a v a i l a b l e during t h i s time. 3.4.2.4 Average Auto Occupancy by T r i p Purpose Average auto occupancy w i l l be used, to determine person t r a v e l time by t r i p purpose based on the v e h i c l e t r a v e l times to be estimated i n Section 3.5. While the 1982 t r a v e l survey indicated that there was a tendency f o r auto occupancy to be higher during peak periods, no c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of auto occupancy by t r i p purpose by time of day was provided i n the survey a n a l y s i s . Thus, average d a i l y auto occupancy rates from the survey were used f o r a l l times of day as follows: - HBW: 1.25 - HBO: 1.64 - NHB: 1.43 - Truck: 1.00 3.4.2.5 v e h i c l e Mix An a n a l y s i s was made i n the FMATS Update of v e h i c l e mix data from eight permanent s t a t i o n counters and weighted by AADT volumes. This a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d that approximately 11.6 percent of the area's i n t e r n a l v e h i c l e t r i p s (those t r i p s w i t h i n the FMATS Study area) were made by commercial v e h i c l e s — h e a v y trucks and l i g h t commercial vehicles (DCCO, 1983, pg 8). The v a r i a t i o n of t h i s t r a f f i c by time of day was estimated using the foll o w i n g f i g u r e s , found to be t y p i c a l for urban areas: Time of Day Percent of Total Avg. Hourly Percent 6am - 8am 10.0 5.0 8am - 4pm 74.7 9.34 4pm - 6pm 12.7 6.35 6pm - 6am 2.6 .22 Source: Levinson H.S. "Urban Travel C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s " - Chapter 10 of The Transportation Engineering Handbook, Table 10-38, pg 288, 1985. 3.5 C a l c u l a t i o n of Link Operating Conditions This s e c t i o n presents the method by which l i n k operating conditions were c a l c u l a t e d f o r the evaluation and a summary of the r e s u l t s of the system a n a l y s i s f o r the four scenarios outlined e a r l i e r . 42 3.5.1 Development of hink Speed Estimates E s s e n t i a l l y , the method involves determining the average speed on a l i n k given i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Speeds have been found to be a f f e c t e d by area type and f a c i l i t y type. For example, based on findings i n the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual, i t was estimated that average speeds increase roughly 50 percent going from CBD l o c a t i o n s to r e s i d e n t i a l areas h o l d i n g volumes constant (Dickey, pg 104) . As well, the diff e r e n c e in speeds between a road c l a s s i f i e d as a two-way a r t e r i a l with parking and a freeway was found to be approximately 150 percent. For cases of uninterrupted flow (freeways, r u r a l highways) the r e l a t i o n s h i p of flow and speed i s reasonably well-behaved such that speeds can be determined within the above typology as a function of volume-capacity r a t i o s (Dewees, 1978, pg 153). However, the r e l a t i o n s h i p between flow and speed i s more complex on urban roads, with i n t e r s e c t i o n capacity l i m i t i n g the flow of t r a f f i c more so than the s t r e e t c a p a c i t y between i n t e r s e c t i o n s (Dewees, 1978, pg 154) . Indeed, the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual 1 0 states f a i r l y s t r ongly that: " I t i s not f e a s i b l e to show any ' t y p i c a l ' speed-volume curve f o r urban a r t e r i a l s . . .where interrupted flow i s involved, ' i d e a l s ' cannot be r e a d i l y defined, because too many v a r i a b l e s are i n v o l v e d 1 1 and a combination of flow which i s i d e a l i n one case may be t o t a l l y out of place i n another. Neither can any other s i n g l e speed-v/c r a t i o curve, or group of curves, represent urban a r t e r i a l operations a i l - i n c l u s i v e l y , as was done for other highway types; only t y p i c a l curves can be shown" (Highway Capacity Manual, 1965, pg 319). 43 T h u s , t o e s t i m a t e a c c u r a t e l y t h e s p e e d s o n u r b a n a r t e r i a l s a t d i f f e r e n t v o l u m e s , i t i s i d e a l t o s i m u l a t e n o t o n l y t h e o p e r a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r s e c t i o n s , b u t a n e n t i r e s t r e e t n e t w o r k ( D e w e e s , 1 9 7 8 , p g 1 5 4 ) . T h i s m i g h t b e a c c o m p l i s h e d u s i n g o n e o f s e v e r a l c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m s w h i c h a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s s p e c i f i c p u r p o s e ( f o r e x a m p l e , T r a n s y t 7 - F ) . T h e s e p r o g r a m s p r o d u c e e s t i m a t e s o f a v e r a g e s p e e d s ( o r t r a v e l t i m e ) t h r o u g h e a c h i n t e r s e c t i o n a s w e l l a s a v e r a g e d e l a y p e r a u t o a t e a c h i n t e r s e c t i o n . T h u s , a c c u r a t e s p e e d f l o w r e l a t i o n s h i p s c a n b e e s t a b l i s h e d f o r a n e t w o r k b y p e r f o r m i n g s i m u l a t i o n s a t v a r i o u s v o l u m e s . One d r a w b a c k t o t h e s e p r o g r a m s i s t h e e x t e n s i v e d a t a r e q u i r e d t o o b t a i n u s a b l e r e s u l t s . T u r n i n g m o v e m e n t s , l i g h t t i m i n g , v e h i c l e m i x , a n d o t h e r d a t a a r e r e q u i r e d f o r e a c h i n t e r s e c t i o n 12 t o b e i n c l u d e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . B e c a u s e o f t h e d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e s e t y p e s o f p r o g r a m s t h i s c a s e s t u d y i s l i m i t e d t o t h e u s e o f t h e " t y p i c a l " s p e e d f l o w r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o u n d i n t h e H i g h w a y C a p a c i t y M a n u a l . H o w e v e r , i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t i n p r a c t i c e a n e v a l u a t i o n o f u r b a n a r t e r i a l s s h o u l d b e b a s e d o n l o c a l i t y - s p e c i f i c d a t a . T h e e x a c t s p e e d - f l o w r e l a t i o n s h i p s u s e d h e r e a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 3 - 3 . T h e y a r e t a k e n f r o m D i c k e y ' s M e t r o p o l i t a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g i n w h i c h h e p r e s e n t s p e r l a n e c a p a c i t i e s a n d a v e r a g e s p e e d s f o r v a r i o u s f a c i l i t y a n d a r e a t y p e s b a s e d o n m a t e r i a l i n t h e H i g h w a y C a p a c i t y M a n u a l ( D i c k e y , 1 9 8 3 , p g 1 0 5 ) . S p e e d s w e r e d e t e r m i n e d f o r f o u r t i m e s o f d a y u n d e r f o u r s c e n a r i o s f o r a l l l i n k s . One p r o b l e m t h a t e x i s t s w i t h t h e u s e o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n i s l a c k o f a n y t h e o r e t i c a l l y s o u n d s p e e d - f l o w r e l a t i o n s h i p s a t v / c r a t i o s g r e a t e r t h a n 1 . 0 . B e y o n d t h i s p o i n t f l o w s a r e u n s t a b l e a n d b o t h 44 v o l u m e s a n d s p e e d s d e c r e a s e t o z e r o . S o m e l i n k s u n d e r t h e h i g h g r o w t h s c e n a r i o , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h o u t t h e p r o j e c t , e x p e r i e n c e s e v e r e c o n g e s t i o n ( v / c g r e a t e r t h a n 1 . 0 ) d u r i n g t h e m i d d a y a n d p . m . p e a k . I t i s f e l t t h a t u n d e r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s t r a v e l b e h a v i o r w o u l d s u r e l y c h a n g e , w i t h d r i v e r s s h i f t i n g r o u t e s t o a v o i d t h e b o t t l e n e c k s . T o a d d r e s s t h i s p r o b l e m , i t i s a s s u m e d t h a t , w h i l e c o n g e s t i o n m i g h t r e m a i n a p r o b l e m , t h e d e m a n d o n a b o t t l e n e c k l i n k d u r i n g c o n g e s t e d p e r i o d s w o u l d r e m a i n a t o r n o t f a r a b o v e t h e r a t e d c a p a c i t y a s s o m e u s e r s t r a n s f e r t o 13 o t h e r r o u t e s . T h e c o s t o f t h i s t r a n s f e r i s a s s u m e d t o b e e q u a l t o t h e c o s t o f t r a v e l l i n g o v e r t h e c o n g e s t e d l i n k a n d i s a p p l i e d t o t h e e n t i r e d e m a n d e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e l i n k . I t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h i s o n l y r o u g h l y a p p r o x i m a t e s t h e c o s t i n v o l v e d a n d d o e s n o t i n c l u d e a n e s t i m a t e o f i n c r e a s e d c o s t s t o e x i s t i n g u s e r s o n t h e r o u t e t o w h i c h t r a f f i c h a s d i v e r t e d . H o w e v e r , i t i s f e l t t h a t b y a s s i g n i n g a c o s t t o t h e d i v e r t e d t r a f f i c w h i c h m a y , i n r e a l i t y , b e . t o o h i g h ( i e , t h e y h a v e l i k e l y t r a n s f e r r e d t o a l o w e r c o s t r o u t e ) ; t h e t o t a l c o s t s o f t h e b o t t l e n e c k s c a u s i n g c o n g e s t i o n c a n b e r o u g h l y a p p r o x i m a t e d . 45 Table 3-3 Per Lane Capacity and Estimated Average Speed (MPH) on Various F a c i l i t y Types at D i f f e r e n t Locations Speed (MPH) at d i f f e r e n t v/c r a t i o s 0.50 0.75 1.00 Area Type CBD Fringe Res. OBD CBD Fringe Res. OBD CBD Fringe Res. OBD CBD Fringe Res . OBD Capacity (vph) 800 1000 1100 1000 400 550 550 550 1. Expressway 37 34 44 38 47 44 37 34 Two-Way A r t e r i a l with Parking 22 29 32 24 20 27 30 22 3. Two-Way A r t e r i a l without Parking 600 22 20 800 29 27 800 32 30 800 24 22 4. One-Way A r t e r i a l 700 22 20 550 29 27 900 32 30 650 24 22 33 35 31 33 15 25 28 18 15 25 28 18 15 25 28 18 31 32 38 31 12 15 15 13 12 15 15 13 12 15 15 13 Note: For f a c i l i t y types 2-4 an optimal s i g n a l progression i 3 assumed. Source: Dickey, page 105. CBD - c e n t r a l b u siness d i s t r i c t ; F r i n g e - area around CBD; Res r e s i d e n t i a l ; and OBD - outlying business d i s t r i c t . 46 F O O T N O T E S C H A P T E R T H R E E 1. Unfortunately, no information was published i n any FMATS update reports developed by DCCO reg a r d i n g the strength of the r e g r e s s i o n models or i n d i v i d u a l v a r i a b l e s used i n t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n . 2. Given that t h i s step of the process i s b u i l t on three previous steps, t e s t i n g the s e n s i t i v i t y of assignments to several parameters (auto ownership, income, household s i z e , s h i f t s i n land use patterns) would seem c r u c i a l though t h i s i s not t y p i c a l l y done i n most studies. 3. For example, even i f the 160 zones were aggregated into 40 zones, that s t i l l i m p l i e s 1,600 zone to zone interchanges which must be assigned to p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s . 4. T r i p a t t r a c t i o n s are.used here as an approximation of t o t a l demand f o r auto t r a v e l i n the area during an average weekday. The use of average weekday t r i p s f o l l o w s from the FMATS Update t r a v e l survey which was p r i m a r i l y a d e s c r i p t i o n of weekday t r i p s (DCCO, 1985, pg 11-32). 5. This i s based on a weighted average of the year 2005 volumes on the i n d i v i d u a l l i n k s making up the Geist Extension. The weighted average volume i s determined as follows: Weighted Average Volume = (Link Distance) *Link Volume (Road Segment Distance) This weighted average was then taken as a percentage of 2005 t o t a l t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s to a r r i v e at 5.8 percent. 6. This was done i n proportion to the percentage which had been added to the l i n k assignment f a c t o r . For example, without the p r o j e c t , A i r p o r t Road re c e i v e d an a d d i t i o n a l two percent of t o t a l t r a f f i c which i s equal to 40 percent of the t o t a l added (2/5). Thus, for 1987, the assignment f a c t o r f o r A i r p o r t Road with the p r o j e c t would be reduced from i t s 1986 l e v e l by (.4 * 1.21) or .484 percent. 7 . This reduction i s not based on an al t e r n a t i v e growth scenario which might u n d e r l i e the development of lower employment, population, etc. Instead, the parameters were reduced by an a r b i t r a r y f i g u r e (75%) to r e f l e c t i n some measure, slower growth i n the area. 8 . Computer models e x i s t to compute capacity and l i n k speeds. These could have been used i n a r e a l s i t u a t i o n . However, i n the absence of these resources, the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual provides the information required f o r the case study. 9. This i s not so for annual network costs. These costs were found to be l i n e a r , f o l l o w i n g the growth i n o v e r a l l t r a f f i c volumes. As discussed further i n Chapter Five, i t i s f e l t that the aggregation of hourly l i n k costs, f i r s t to d a i l y costs and then to network costs removes the no n l i n e a r i t y . 47 1 0 . A 1 9 8 5 version of the HCM was d i s t r i b u t e d i n 1 9 8 6 (after the methodology fo r t h i s paper had been established) . This v e r s i o n t r e a t s flows on urban roads using a d i f f e r e n t approach than the speed-volume approach used in the 1 9 6 5 manual. Because the change i n approach would require a major revamping of the methodology used i n t h i s paper, the 1 9 6 5 appraoch i s retained. 1 1 . These v a r i a b l e s include turning t r a f f i c , timing of l i g h t s on the network, pedestrians, v e h i c l e mix and other i n t e r r u p t i o n s . 1 2 . For t h i s case study, a s i m u l a t i o n would i n v o l v e approximately 4 2 i n t e r s e c t i o n s . 1 3 . There are methods to determine the time r e q u i r e d to d i s s i p a t e queues caused by excess capacity at an i n t e r s e c t i o n (NHCRP 1 3 3 , Transportation and T r a f f i c Engineering). However, these methods do not take i n t o account the e l a s t i c i t y of demand and are of rather l i m i t e d use i n t h i s case. 4 8 CHAPTER FOUR User Costs One of the primary objectives of an improvement to or a d d i t i o n of capacity to an urban network i s the reduction in user costs over time. These costs include v e h i c l e operating costs, user time costs, and accident costs. This chapter presents an analysis of these costs under the four scenarios about future population and t r a f f i c growth described i n Chapter Three. 4.1 Vehicle Operating Costs The c a l c u l a t i o n of t o t a l v e h i c l e operating costs e n t a i l s e s t i m a t i o n of s e v e r a l component costs, both f i x e d and v a r i a b l e . These component cost's include: Variable Eized. o Fuel and O i l o Depreciation o T i r e s o Insurance o Vehicle Maintenance o Fees and Taxes Since t h i s analysis i s concerned with the change i n v e h i c l e operating costs between the network with the p r o j e c t and the network without the project only the v a r i a b l e costs are relevant. There has been considerable research regarding the e f f e c t s of various operating conditions on v e h i c l e operating costs on highways. Such factors as grade, road geometry, pavement type, f a c i l i t y type and t r a f f i c flow conditions are t y p i c a l l y used to adjust a base cost on l e v e l , tangent, paved roads under "free-flow" c o n d i t i o n s . In a d d i t i o n , t o t a l v e h i c l e operating costs are influenced by the composition of the v e h i c l e f l e e t i n terms of v e h i c l e mix, age, and u t i l i z a t i o n (Heggie, pg 82). Except i n s p e c i a l cases, grade, pavement type and road geometry are not serious issues i n urban areas. I t i s necessary to have some means of d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between costs on d i f f e r e n t types of f a c i l i t i e s and under various operating c o n d i t i o n s . This i s necessary to assess the impact of a l t e r n a t i v e types of investment on user's costs. Toward t h i s end, t h i s evaluation makes use of the speed-flow r e l a t i o n s h i p s presented i n Chapter Three to derive estimates of v e h i c l e operating costs f o r various f a c i l i t y types and t r a f f i c flows. This assumes a given v e h i c l e f l e e t and l e v e l of vehicle u t i l i z a t i o n . I t i s thus necessary to determine the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the "free-flow" speeds on v a r i o u s f a c i l i t y types and v e h i c l e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . This r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l be adjusted f o r congestion a f f e c t s by r e l a t i n g costs to the l i n k volume/capacity r a t i o as discussed below. Average c o s t 3 w i l l be estimated f o r automobile and truck t r a f f i c . 4.1.1 Auto Operating Costs 4.1.1.1 £ji£i Recent research i n d i c a t e s that f o r urban auto t r i p s with an average speed of l e s s then 38 mph, f u e l consumption per mile increases l i n e a r l y with the average t r i p time per mile (Tobin, pg 590). 1 I t was found that f u e l consumption could be estimated using the fo l l o w i n g function: 4 = K x + K 2 t (Average Speed < -38 mph) Where <|> i s f u e l consumption per unit distance; and K 2 are constants r e l a t e d to the mass and i d l e f u e l flow rate of the v e h i c l e , r e s p e c t i v e l y ; and t i s the average t r i p time per unit distance (Evans, 1978A, pg 163). 50 As most of the average l i n k speeds estimated f o r the evaluation are below 3 8 mph, the r e l a t i o n s h i p d e s c r i b e d above w i l l be used to estimate f u e l consumption for a l l f a c i l i t y types and operating conditions. From empirical t e s t s , values of and K 2 were found to be . 0 3 7 0 7 gal/mi and . 7 6 3 2 4 gal/hour r e s p e c t i v e l y (Tobin, pg 5 9 0 ) ^ . Operating conditions i n Fairbanks are l i k e l y d i f f e r e n t then those used i n the e m p i r i c a l t e s t s . However, because of lack of t h i s s p e c i f i c data these estimates were taken to represent f u e l consumption patterns i n Fairbanks. Using the speed-flow r e l a t i o n s h i p s discussed i n the previous chapter, the t r a v e l times per mile i m p l i e d by the volume/capacity r a t i o s were used to c a l c u l a t e f u e l consumption. T h i s p r o v i d e d a convenient r e l a t i o n s h i p between the volume/capacity (v/c) r a t i o on a l i n k and the estimate of f u e l consumption for that l i n k . The f u e l consumption per mile estimated f o r various f a c i l i t y / a r e a types at various volumes i s presented i n Appendix B. Fuel costs were c a l c u l a t e d using the 1 9 8 6 average p r i c e of unleaded gasoline i n Fairbanks of $ 1 . 0 0 / p e r g a l l o n (less taxes)^. 4 . 1 . 1 . 2 Other Variable Costs Other v a r i a b l e costs include v e h i c l e r e p a i r and maintenance, t i r e s and o i l . A 1 9 7 9 study of nationwide automobile operating costs i n d i c a t e d that these costs represented approximately 2 5 percent of t o t a l v e h i c l e operating cost (derived from Dickey, pages 1 3 3 to 1 4 9 ) . Based on a 1 9 8 3 study, the t o t a l nationwide average cost was found to be 2 3 . 9 cents per mile. Making an 1 1 5 1 percent adjustment f o r higher operating conditions i n Alaska (based on costs i n Anchorage) the cost of maintenance, t i r e s and o i l i s estimated to be 6 . 7 cents per mile (Quadra, pg 5 - 8 ) . To adapt t h i s cost to the various f a c i l i t y types and operating conditions the assumption was made that t h i s cost was r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of those experienced by t r a f f i c on an urban a r t e r i a l i n the f r i n g e area under stable flow c o n d i t i o n s (v/c r a t i o of approximately . 6 , speed = approximately 2 6 mph) . To adjust t h i s cost to the various operating c o n d i t i o n s on a p a r t i c u l a r f a c i l i t y , a r e l a t i o n s h i p between speed reduction and cost increase was e s t a b l i s h e d . This r e l a t i o n s h i p was based on research c a r r i e d out by Winch i n the e a r l y s i x t i e s i n a comparison of f r e e - f l o w and stop-and-go conditi o n s . Winch c a l c u l a t e d that brake and c l u t c h maintenance costs, t i r e c osts, and other maintenance costs increased by 5 0 percent between operating c o n d i t i o n s at 4 5 mph with no stops and 3 0 mph with f i v e stops per mile (Winch, page 6 8 ) . I n t e r p e l l a t i n g between the two operating conditions, a r e l a t i o n s h i p between speed reduction and cost increase was obtained: Congestion Cost Adjustments to Base Costs Winch's 1 9 6 1 Cost Estimate Speed % Speed Reduction Cost ( C e n t s / M i l e i % Cost Increase 4 5 4 2 . 5 4 0 3 7 . 5 3 5 3 2 . 5 3 0 0 5 . 6 1 1 . 1 1 6 . 7 2 2 . 2 2 7 . 8 3 3 . 3 0 . 4 8 . 7 2 0 8 . 3 1 6 . 7 2 5 . 0 3 3 . 3 4 1 . 7 5 0 . 0 5 2 A l i n e a r estimate of the above re l a t i o n s h i p r e s u l t e d i n the follo w i n g : Percent change i n cost = 1.5 (percent speed change) - .0571 This f u n c t i o n was applied to the speed-flow r e l a t i o n s h i p s to allow f o r a change i n the un i t operating cost per mile with changes i n the flow of t r a f f i c f o r each f a c i l i t y type. To adjust the estimated average cost of 6.7 cents per mile to other f a c i l t i y types i t was f i r s t adjusted to a free-flow (approximately 30 mph) cost of 5.74 cents per mile using the r e l a t i o n s h i p d e s c r i b e d above. Using r e l a t i o n s h i p s between speeds and costs under free-flow conditions, the cost estimate f o r 30 mph was adjusted to other speeds and assigned to various f a c i l i t y types i n the manner shown in Table 4-1: Table 4-1 Basic Costs at Various Constant Speeds Speed Category (MPH) Cost Item (Cents/Mile) 20 25 30 Automobiles 35 40 Tires-1-O i l 1 Maintenance 1 TOTAL % of Cost at 30 mph Est. Base Cost F a c i l i t y / Area Type^ 0.3 0.2 3.9 4.4 0.88 5.05 0.4 0.2 4.0 4.6 0.92 5.28 2,3,4/1 2,3,4/4 0.5 0.2 4.3 5.0 1 . 0 5.74 2 2,3,4/2,3 0.6 0.2 4.5 5.1 1.02 5.85 1/1,4 1. From Berger and Associates Table 3.6-1, 1978 costs. 2. Described above.-3. From Typology presented i n Chapter Three. 0.9 0.2 5.0 6.1 1.22 7 .01 1/2,3 53 4.1.1.3 Results of Variable Coat Estimates The base costs assigned to each f a c i l i t y are taken i n combination with the adjustments f o r flow conditions to estimate unit operating costs f o r each l i n k . Tables showing the f u e l and other auto r e l a t e d v e h i c l e operating cost estimates f o r each f a c i l i t y type and flow c o n d i t i o n are presented i n Appendix B. Table 4-2 presents examples of the e f f e c t s of f a c i l i t y type and congestion on v a r i a b l e operating costs as estimated by the methods described above. Table 4-2 Examples of Variable Operating Costs (Auto) fo r Various F a c i l i t i e s and Conditions (Cents/Mile) F a c i l i t y Type/ Area Type Free Flow 1  V / O - l Stable Flow 1  v/O.7 Unstable Flow 1 Arterial/CBD A r t e r i a l / O u t l y i n g Business Area A r t e r i a l / F r i n g e Expressway/CBD Expressway/Fringe 12.40 12.33 12 .22 11.77 12 .71 15. 60 13.86 13.52 12.76 14.87 18 .56 18 . 49 18 .70 13.44 15.97 1. Flow condition d e s c r i p t i o n s and estimated V/C taken from Carter, et a l , page 494 (Chapter 16 of Transportation and T r a f f i c Engineering Handbook). This t a b l e shows that the free-flow cost estimates move as expected, f a l l i n g up to a c e r t a i n speed (approximately 35 mph) and then r i s i n g at higher speeds. As well, cost increases due to congestion are not as severe on 54 h i g h e r s p e e d f a c i l i t i e s . T h i s i s t o b e e x p e c t e d a s t h e a v e r a g e s p e e d s , e v e n a t l e v e l s o f h i g h c o n g e s t i o n , a r e q u i t e h i g h r e l a t i v e t o t h o s e o n o t h e r f a c i l i t i e s . 4 . 1 . 2 T r u c k C o s t s L e s s p r e c i s e d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e r e g a r d i n g t r u c k f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n . T h u s , e s t i m a t e s o f t r u c k c o s t s w e r e m a d e b y t a k i n g a n a v e r a g e t o t a l v a r i a b l e c o s t o f . 2 4 c e n t s / m i l e ( Q u a d r a , p g 5 - 7 ) t o d e r i v e c o s t e s t i m a t e s f o r v a r i o u s f a c i l i t y t y p e s . F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s t u d y t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f a 3 . 5 t o n t r u c k a r e u s e d t o r e p r e s e n t a v e r a g e t r u c k o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . O n a f a c i l i t y w i t h a d e s i g n s p e e d o f 3 0 m p h , t h e s p e e d a t s t a b l e f l o w e q u a l s ~ 2 6 m p h . T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a t h r e e p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e f r o m t h e f r e e - f l o w c o s t a c c o r d i n g t o a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r s f o r t r a f f i c i n t e r a c t i o n d e v e l o p e d i n a r e c e n t r e g i o n a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d y i n A l a s k a ( B e r g e r , T a b l e 3 . 6 - 4 ) . T h u s , u s i n g . 2 4 c e n t s / m i l e t o r e p r e s e n t t h e v a r i a b l e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f s t a b l e f l o w , t h e f r e e - f l o w c o s t i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2 3 . 3 c e n t s / m i l e . T a b l e 4 - 3 b e l o w s h o w s h o w t r u c k c o s t s w e r e d e v e l o p e d f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n . B a s e d o n d i f f e r e n c e s i n o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a t d i f f e r e n t s p e e d s e s t i m a t e d i n a n e a r l i e r s t u d y , b a s e c o s t s w e r e e s t a b l i s h e d . N e w c o m p o n e n t c o s t s ( f u e l , o i l , t i r e s a n d m a i n t e n a n c e ) w e r e c a l c u l a t e d i n p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e e s t i m a t e s f r o m t h e o l d e r s t u d y . B a s e d o n t r a f f i c i n t e r a c t i o n f a c t o r s d e v e l o p e d i n t h e r e g i o n a l s t u d y c i t e d a b o v e , f u e l a n d t i r e c o s t s w e r e a d j u s t e d d e p e n d i n g o n t h e r e d u c t i o n i n s p e e d 5 5 from the design speed (free-flow speed) r e s u l t i n g from the i n t e r a c t i o n of t r a f f i c (Berger, pg 67). Table 4-3 Basic Costs at Constant Speeds Speed Category 4 Cost Items. F u e l 1 T i r e s 1 O i l 1 Maintenance 1 TOTAL % of Cost at 30 mph Est. Base Cost F u e l 3 T i r e s 3 O i l 3 Maintenance 3 20. 09.7 01.0 00.3 17 .3 28.3 00.953 22 .20 02.61 00.78 00.24 13.57 25. 08.6 01.3 00.3 18.2 28.4 00.956 2 22 .27 06.74 01.02 00.24 14.27 2SL 08.1 01.6 00.3 19.7 29.7 001.0 23.32 06.35 01.26 00 .24 15.45 Trucks-lS. 08.1 02 .0 00.3 21.2 31.6 001.06 24.70 06.33 01.56 00.24 16.57 AO. 09.0 02.9 00.2 25.0 37.1 001.25 29.13 07.07 02.28 00.16 19.62 1. Taken from Berger Table 3.6-4 (3.5 ton trucks) 1978 Alaskan costs. 2. As derived above. 3. Proportional to e a r l i e r cost study component costs. 4. These speed c a t e g o r i e s correspond to the same f a c i l i t y / a r e a types i d e n t i f i e d f o r auto costs. 5. The higher costs i n the e a r l i e r study r e s u l t from the higher cost of l i v i n g i n the region f o r which those costs were o r i g i n a l l y developed. However, t h e a c t u a l e f f e c t s of s p e c i f i c speed c y c l e s ( i e , d e c e l e r a t i o n - a c c e l e r a t i o n c y c l e s ) c o u l d not be c a l c u l a t e d from data a v a i l a b l e . The i n t e r a c t i o n costs, r e f l e c t e d i n Table 4-4 below, provide f o r some change i n costs with volume on each f a c i l i t y type. 4.1.3 T o t a l Vehicle Operating Costs T o t a l v e h i c l e operating costs were estimated f o r each l i n k by time of day under a l l scenarios being evaluated. Based on the volume/capacity r a t i o s 56 during each time of day (established i n Chapter Three), a u n i t operating cost per mile was es t a b l i s h e d f o r autos and trucks. This per mile cost was m u l t i p l i e d by the l i n k distance to arri v e at i n d i v i d u a l l i n k operating costs by time of day. T o t a l v e h i c l e operating costs f o r auto and truck were then c a l c u l a t e d based on t o t a l l i n k volumes. An example of the worksheet used to tabulate v e h i c l e operating costs i s presented i n Appendix B. Table 4-4 Truck Operating Costs Adjusted f o r T r a f f i c Interaction (Cents/Mile) Operating Design Speed (mph) Speed (mph) 2SL 25. M 21 M 15 22.59 22.88 24.71 27.53 20 22.20 22.68 23.99 26.44 25 22.27 23.78 25.51 .30 23.30 25.14 32.13 35 24.70 31.10 40 29.89 45 29.13 4.2 Value of Time i n Transportation The value of user time savings represents the primary b e n e f i t of v i r t u a l l y a l l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n investments. However, much debate e x i s t s as to the exact nature of the value of time and how i t should be applied i n the evaluation of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s . The reasons f o r t h i s debate stem from the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p of the value of time with several factors i n c l u d i n g : - User income - The time increment over which the value i s to be applied - The mode and q u a l i t y of service - T r i p purpose It has been shown that the user's value of time changes i n proportion to his or her net wage (DeDonnea, pg 208) . The value of time has also been shown 57 to vary with the amount of time saved, with people generally valuing greater time savings at a higher rate then shorter time savings (Heggie, 1982, pg 421) . Travelers have a l s o been found to attach a comfort f a c t o r to t h e i r value of time. Thus, people may value i n - v e h i c l e time d i f f e r e n t l y then o u t - o f - v e h i c l e time, and value time on d i f f e r e n t modes d i f f e r e n t l y (DeDonnea, pg 38) . A study of auto r e s t r a i n t p o l i c i e s i n downtown Boston suggests that a higher value of time be put on t r a v e l during congested periods to account f o r the higher d i s u t i l i t y involved (Gomez-Ibonez and Fauth, pg 145) . F i n a l l y , d i f f e r e n t t r i p purposes have a d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l value (Heggie, 1972, pg 93). Generally, the work re l a t e d t r i p s are thought to have a higher d i s u t i l i t y than shopping t r i p s or l e i s u r e t r i p s . To determine the value of time f o r a p a r t i c u l a r community would involve the study of t r a v e l behavior at a very disaggregate l e v e l , u s u a l l y beyond the resources of most planning agencies. Thus, average values are used based on e m p i r i c a l studies. For example, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation O f f i c i a l s i n i t s 1977 "Manual of User Benefit Analysis of Highway and Bus-Transit Improvements" uses the values presented i n Table 4-5 which are based on a study of choice between t o l l roads and n o n - t o l l roads. Another study presented the average values in terms of the percentage of average h o u r l y f a m i l y income (Dickey, pg 137) . Assuming Dickey's percentages represent the net family income, average values of time f o r various t r i p types and l e v e l s of time savings were derived r e f l e c t i n g 1983 Alaskan wage lev e l s (Quadra, page 5-10) and are presented i n Table 4-6. 58 T a b l e 4-5 A n n u a l F a m i l y I n c o m e ( D o l l a r s ) V a l u e o f T i m e E s t i m a t e s f r o m M a n u a l o f U s e r B e n e f i t A n a l y s i s o f H i g h w a y a n d B u s - T r a n s i t I m p r o v e m e n t s 1 Time S a v i n g s (Minutes) V a l u e o f T i m e B y T r i p P u r p o s e ( D o l l a r s )  $ 5,000 0-5 5-15 O v e r 15 Avg Trips 0.07 0.58 1.26 Work T r i p s 0 .15 0.77 1.26 $10,000 0-5 5-15 O v e r 15 0.13 1.55 2.52 0.31 2.52 $15,000 ( A v e r a g e ) $20,000 0-5 5-15 O v e r 15 0-5 5-15 O v e r 15 0.21 1.80 3.90 0, 2. 5. 27 32 03 0.48 2.40 3.90 62 10 03 $30,000 0-5 5-15 O v e r 15 0. 3. 7 . 41 48 55 92 65 55 A m e r i c a n A s s o c i a t i o n o f S t a t e H i g h w a y a n d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f f i c i a l s . T a b l e 4-6 V a l u e o f T i m e E s t i m a t e s - A l a s k a Low t i m e s a v i n g s (0-5 m i n u t e s ) N o n - w o r k t r i p s W ork t r i p s T r u c k t r i p s 2 P e r c e n t a g e A v e r a g e H o u r l y Family Income1 2.8 6.4 M e d i u m t i m e s a v i n g s (5-15 m i n u t e s ) N o n - w o r k t r i p s 24.2 Work t r i p s 32.2 H i g h t i m e s a v i n g s ( o v e r 15 m i n u t e s ) N o n - w o r k t r i p s W ork t r i p s T r u c k t r i p s 2 1. D i c k e y , p a g e 137. 2. Q u a d r a , p a g e 5-10. 52.3 52.3 V a l u e o f Time ( $ / H r ) 1 0.63 1.43 2.75 5.36 7 .15 11.62 11. 62 23.71 59 The values i n Table 4-6 have been applied to t o t a l users by t r i p purpose (as determined by auto occupancy figures discussed i n Chapter Three) f o r each time of day to a r r i v e at t o t a l user time costs for each l i n k . An example of the worksheet used to c a l c u l a t e user time costs i s provided i n Appendix B. 4.3 Accident Costs The method used to estimate accident costs e n t a i l s use of an accident rate equation and recommended average costs f o r accidents of various types. While accident costs are not always considered i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n studies, a s i g n i f i c a n t amount of research (and equal amount of debate) e x i s t s regarding the d i s t r i b u t i o n of accidents by severity, and the economic costs to society r e s u l t i n g from these accidents. A primary source of controversy i s what value i s to be put on the more i n d i r e c t cost3 a s s o c i a t e d with accidents ( i . e . , loss of l i f e , pain and su f f e r i n g , e t c . ) . Adler, i n h i s text "Economic Appraisal of Transport P r o j e c t s " discusses the problems the World Bank has had with q u a n t i f y i n g accident c o s t s . He concludes that, from a p r a c t i c a l standpoint, i t i s prudent "to l i m i t the value of accident reduction. . . to estimates of v e h i c l e and other property damage, medical costs and losses of output. An i n d i c a t i o n of l i v e s saved and the order of magnitude for other costs, such as pain and s u f f e r i n g , may be h e l p f u l , but they can r a r e l y serve as a meaningful ba s i s f o r investment d e c i s i o n s " (Adler, pg 43). For purposes of t h i s study,. recent extensive research conducted by M i l l e r , et a l f o r the N a t i o n a l Highway T r a f f i c Safety A d m i n i s t r a t i o n provides a us e f u l set of costs associated with accidents. While i t i s recognized that 6 0 some of these costs are d i f f i c u l t to measure, i t i s al s o understood that these costs are legitimate cost to society and therefore should be addressed by SBCA. A n a l y s i s i n Chapter F i v e w i l l examine the s e n s i t i v i t y of the project evaluation to accident cost using M i l l e r ' s data. In the approach used here, accident costs are d i v i d e d i n t o d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t c o s t s . These costs are estimated f o r various accident c l a s s e s organized along a Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale or MAIS. These classes are d e s c r i b e d i n Table 4-7 and represent c a t e g o r i z a t i o n developed by the American A s s o c i a t i o n f o r Automotive Medicine p r i m a r i l y based on the threat to l i f e posed by a p a r t i c u l a r i n j u r y ( M i l l e r , et a l , pg 16). The d i r e c t cost components normally considered include ( M i l l e r , et a l , pg 19) : - Emergency medical services costs - Medical costs - Legal and court costs - Property damage costs 61 Table 4-7 Representative Motor Vehicle Injuries by Abbreviated Injury Scale Level hlS Code In-iury-Severity Level 1 Minor Injury 2 Moderate Injury 3 Serious Injury 4 Severe Injury 5 C r i t i c a l Injury 6 Maximum Injury (Fatal) Representative Injuries S u p e r f i c i a l abrasions, sprains, f i r s t -degree burns, headache or d i z z i n e s s Major abrasions, cerebral concussion (unconcious less than 15 minutes), Finger or toe crush/amputation, closed p e l v i c fracture Major nerve la c e r a t i o n , multiple r i b fracture, abdominal organ con-tusion, hand, foot or arm crush/ amputation Spleen rupture, leg crush, chest-wall perforation, cerebral concussion with neurological signs (unconcious les s than 24 hours) Spinal cord injury, extensive second or third-degree burns, cerebral concussion with severe neu r o l o g i c a l signs (unconcious more than 24 hours) Decapitation, torso transection, massively crushed chest Source: M i l l e r , et a l , pg 18. 62 The i n d i r e c t cost components normally considered include ( M i l l e r , et a l , page 3 0 ) : - S o c i a l mechanism costs - P r o d u c t i v i t y losses - Psychosocial costs S o c i a l mechanism cost include those costs incurred by the p u b l i c agencies l i s t e d i n Table 4 - 9 (police, f i r e , coroner, etc.) which are more follow-up i n nature and thus considered as " i n d i r e c t " costs. P r o d u c t i v i t y losses are an attempt to measure the loss of human c a p i t a l caused by accidents. P s y c h o s o c i a l costs r e f l e c t pain and s u f f e r i n g which may be i n c u r r e d by a c c i d e n t v i c t i m s a f t e r the a c c i d e n t or, i n d i r e c t l y by those people associated with accident victims. A d e t a i l e d breakdown of the recommended d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t costs used i n t h i s evaluation are presented i n Tables 4 - 8 and 4 - 9 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . While s a t i s f a c t o r y estimates e x i s t f o r most of these c o s t s , no well developed methods and measures e x i s t f o r psychosocial costs ( M i l l e r , et a l , pg 5 7 ) . Thus, psychosocial costs are not considered i n t h i s evaluation^. The costs presented i n Tables 4 - 8 and 4 - 9 are based on n a t i o n a l studies using 1 9 8 0 accident data and 1 9 8 0 d o l l a r s . Table 4 - 1 0 presents these costs i n 1 9 8 5 d o l l a r s with an 1 1 percent upward adjustment made to r e f l e c t the higher costs experienced i n Alaska (based on recommended adjustments to average nationwide operating costs i n Quadra, 1 9 8 3 , pg 5 - 7 ) . 6 3 Table 4-8 Accident Costs Recommended Direct Cost Estimates (1980 Dollars) Per Victim MAIS Category Cost Per Vehicle PDO1 F a t a l Prop. Damage $750 811 1354 2120 2865 2845 3406 Emer. Medical Service- 1 92 128 126 126 126 124 Emer. Room Care 42 110 153 253 363 I n i t i a l Hosp. Phys . Surgeon Service 70 19 888 319 2054 771 5146 2059 2981 3 2981-1370 Follow On Care, F i r s t Yr. 35 60 96 139 2782 Home Modify Second Yr. Unique S e r v i c e 4 455 3739 1584 Follow On Care, Annual 4 81 2277 96,238 Legal & Court TOTAL 11 761 532 1601 583 3442 2688 8089 5147 18,467 7864 138,684 13,394 18,294 1. Based on reported accidents only. 2. Based on NHTSA's urban-rural d i s t r i b u t i o n assumptions. 3. Physician and surgeon s e r v i c e s included i n i n i t i a l h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n cost estimate f o r spinal cord i n j u r i e s . 4. Based on a four percent discount rate. Source: Meyer, et a l , page 123. 64 Table 4-9 Cost P o l i c e F i r e Dept. Coroner Medical Exam Insur. Admin. Welfare & Public Asst. Accident Costs Recommended Indirect C a p i t a l Cost Estimates (1980 Dollars) Per Victim MAIS Category Per Vehicle PDO 1 8- 38 2 54 3 77 120 550 550 550 16 4 107 44 5 129 44 12,540 12,540 F a t a l 129 44 168 12,540 398 398 576 State Motor Veh. Agency State/ Local Hwy. Dept. Human C a p i t a l Psycho S o c i a l TOTAL C 132 98 557 C C 690 1165 1574 C 2217 A. Reported accidents only. B. Tentative estimates. C. No estimates a v a i l a b l e . D. Based on a four percent discount rate. 19,475 109,786 356,884 C C C 32,564 122,897 370,341 Source: M i l l e r , et a l , page 125, 65 The following accident costs w i l l be used i n the evaluation: Table 4-10 Adjusted Accident Costs T o t a l T o t a l Accident D i r e c t Indirect Total C l a ^ s — Costs Costs costs Property Damage Only 1,102 191 1,294 MAIS 1 2,319 999 3,319 MAIS 2 4, 986 1, 688 6, 673 MAIS 3 11,717 3,211 14,929 MAIS 4 26,750 47,171 73,921 MAIS 5 200,891 178,022 378,913 F a t a l i t y 26,500 536,457 562,957 Source: Tables 4-7 and 4-8. Adjusted to 1985 d o l l a r s using U.S. Consumer Pr i c e Index. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of accidents by type was determined by use of a percentage breakdown of 1980 nationwide t r a f f i c accidents as follows ( M i l l e r , et a l , page 20): Table 4-11 Incidence of T r a f f i c Accident Types Number of Accidents (xlQQQ) % o f T o t a l Property Damage Only 1 44,783 91.76 MAIS 1 3,273 6.71 MAIS 2 452 .93 MAIS 3 200 .41 MAIS 4 35 .07 MAIS 5 12 .02 F a t a l i t i e s 51 .10 TOTAL 48,806 100.00 1. Reported plus estimate of unreported. 66 The number of accidents was estimated f o r each road segment using an accident r a t e equation. This equation was developed by the Colorado Department of Highways based on t h e i r own e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between accidents per v e h i c l e mile and t r a f f i c volume (DCCO, 1 9 8 3 , pg C - l ) . The equation for uban a r t e r i a l s was as follows: Y = 8 . 5 + 0 . 3 3 5 X - 0 . 2 3 3 X 2 where X = (ADT - 2 7 , 5 0 0 / 5 0 0 0 ) and Y = Accidents/million v e h i c l e miles Because of the lack of more s o l i d l o c a l data on a l l aspects of accident c o s t s (accident rate, per accident costs, s e v e r i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n ) , the estimates developed here w i l l be used to i l l u s t r a t e the p o t e n t i a l costs of accidents under the various scenarios and w i l l be treated separately i n the evaluation. 4.4 Summary In t h i s chapter the set of user costs have been developed which w i l l be used i n the s o c i a l b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s presented i n Chapter Five. These user costs include: 1 ) Vehicle operating costs f o r both truck and auto t r i p s 2 ) User time costs for work, non-work, and truck t r i p s 3 ) Accident costs In general, these costs were developed to be a p p l i e d to estimating user costs under a v a r i e t y of conditions, f o r each l i n k , both with and without the proposed project. 6 7 For each l i n k , these costs can be considered to be s e n s i t i v e to d i f f e r e n t : o T r a f f i c volumes o Times of day o T r i p purposes o Vehicle types which might be experienced with and without the project. F O O T N O T E S C H A P T E R F O U R 1. D e t a i l s on t h i s research are presented in Evans, et a l , 1976 and 1978B, and Chang, et a l , 1976.. 2. The o r i g i n a l research used metric units and has been t r a n s l a t e d to U.S. measures f o r t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n . 3. A more accurate estimate of f u e l cost might be made using a weighted average of d i f f e r e n t f u e l types based on the composition of the community's v e h i c l e f l e e t . Without data on the vehicle f l e e t the use of the higher cost unleaded f u e l i s assumed to provide a conservative estimate of f u e l costs. 4. T h i s f a c i l i t y / a r e a type and o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n i s f e l t to be representative of the average t r a f f i c conditions i n Fairbanks and thus, the average cost estimate was assigned here. 5. For more d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of these costs and t h e i r d e r i v a t i o n readers are r e f e r r e d to M i l l e r et a l (1984), National Highway T r a f f i c Safety Administration (1983) , and McFarland and R o l l i n s ( 1 9 8 2 ) . It should be noted that M i l l e r et a l , by way of review and comparison of a v a i l a b l e accident cost estimates, recommended against the use of estimates given i n such standard references as AASHTO's "Red Book", the National Safety Council's b u l l e t i n on the i s s u e , and TRB's Report on e v a l u a t i n g highway s a f e t y improvements. Lack of comprehensiveness, documentation, improper methodology were c i t e d as reasons for the recommendation ( M i l l e r et a l , page 29) . 6 8 CHAPTER FIVE Comparison of Costs and Benefits To t h i s point a n a l y s i s has focused on e s t a b l i s h i n g the parameters of the pr o j e c t and i t s l i k e l y impact on users of the highway system i n Fairbanks. Those impacts which are q u a n t i f i a b l e i n d o l l a r terms are used i n t h i s chapter to e s t a b l i s h network-wide resource flows over the l i f e of the p r o j e c t . Benefits of the pr o j e c t are simply the d i f f e r e n c e between the discounted resource flows with and without the pr o j e c t . Given the f a i r l y extensive measurements of impacts i l l u s t r a t e d i n previous chapters i t i s easy f o r the analyst to lose s i g h t of the purpose of the a n a l y s i s . This chapter presents the c a l c u l a t i o n of p r o j e c t b e n e f i t s , the comparison of p r o j e c t costs and b e n e f i t s and the conclusions which r e s u l t from t h i s a n a l y s i s . 5.1 Ca l c u l a t i o n of User Benefits User b e n e f i t s are those b e n e f i t s of the project which accrue d i r e c t l y to those making t r i p s on the a f f e c t e d network. Table 5-1 provides a summary of costs with and without the pro j e c t and annual user be n e f i t s f o r 1986-2005. D a i l y v e h i c l e operating costs (VOC) and user time cost (VOT) are summed to obtain a d a i l y operating cost. An annual operating cost i s f a c t o r e d from the d a i l y cost using f a c t o r s discussed i n Chapter Three. Annual user costs are c a l c u l a t e d by adding annual operating costs and accident c o s t s . Annual user benefits r e s u l t i n g from construction of the Geist Extension are the di f f e r e n c e between annual user costs with and without the pr o j e c t . Having c a l c u l a t e d the costs to users of the network with and without the project, annual user benefits are c a l c u l a t e d as the di f f e r e n c e between annual user costs with and without the pr o j e c t . 69 TABLE 5-1; •COST SUMMARY WITHOUT PROJECT DAILY ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL OPERATING OPERATING ACCIDENT USER VOC VOT COST COST COST COST I486 80941 333451 4H392 123.903.291 2511512 126,414.803 1987 87S30 364992 452522 135,304.147 2104151 138,008,304 1988 90392 377991 4(8382 140,046.264 2189787 142.836.051 1989 9334T 391452 484799 144.954.884 2818129 147,833,013 1990 96400 405392 501792 150.035.860 2969268 153.005.128 1991 99SS3 419829 519382 155,295.255 3063294 158,358.549 1992 102810 434780 537590 160,739.344 3160296 163.899.640 1993 106173 450263 556437 166,374.621 3260371 169,634,992 1994 109618 466298 575946 172,207.812 3363614 115.511.426 1995 113236 182904 596140 178.245.871 3410127 181.716,004 1996 11615? 501451 617609 184,664.952 3546245 188.211.196 1997 111818 511100 626918 188,064.383 3593264 191,651,646 1998 119625 520934 640558 191.526.954 3640906 195.167,861 1999 121397 530957 652354 195,053,848 3689180 198,143,029 2000 123196 541173 664369 198.646.268 3138094 202.384.363 2001 125021 551586 67660? 202.305,440 3181651 206.093,091 2002 126814 562199 689012 206,032.614 3831811 209.810.491 2003 128754 573016 701769 209,829.062 3888763 213,111,824 2004 130661 584041 714703 213.696.081 3940323 217.636.404 200S 132598 595279 727876 217,634,992 3992567 221.621,559 ION OF BENEFIT STREAM COST SUMMARY WITH PROJECT DAILY ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL OPERATING OPERATING ACCIDENT USER PROJECT VOC VOT COST COST COST COST BENEFITS 80941 333451 414392 123,903.291 2511512 126.414.603 $0 84313 355362 439675 131.462,766 2510958 133.973,724 14.034,580 88763 312667 461430 137,967.667 2626587 140.594,254 $2.241.797 69724 392949 482673 144,319.274 2678365 146,997.639 $635,374 94445 396768 491213 146,872,726 2803634 149,676,360 13.328.768 94008 402654 496662 148.502.047 2875326 151.377.313 $6.981,116 97864 419110 516914 154,575.299 3006015 157,581,314 $6,318,326 101154 433163 534317 159.760.818 3116103 162.816.921 $6,158,011 104565 441661 552242 165.120.377 3230223 168.350.600 $1,220,826 108070 462698 570769 170.659.820 3348522 114.008.342 $7,707,661 1)0610 415457 586266 175,293.682 3411341 178.765.030 $9,446,161 112432 482828 595260 177.982,701 3536213 181.518.914 $10,136,732 114018 490313 604391 180,712.998 3602291 184.315.289 $10,852,512 115148 491915 613663 183,485,201 3669604 187, 154,81 1 $11,588,218 117443 505634 623071 186.299.973 3138115 190,038.147 $12,346,215 119162 513413 632635 189,151.948 3808021 192.965.975 $13,121,122 120907 521434 642340 192,059,798 3819164 195,938.982 $13,931,509 122677 529518 652195 195,006,195 3951611 198.957.866 $14,159,959 124413 537127 662200 197,997.824 4025512 202.023,336 $15,613,068 126296 546063 612359 201.035.380 4100133 205,136,113 $16,491,446 Thus, a stream of ben e f i t s i s created over the l i f e of the p r o j e c t . Figure 5-1 presents the user operating costs with and without the project under the high population growth scenario. The po r t i o n of the graph between the two l i n e s represents user b e n e f i t s . Appendix C contains the worksheets used to develop data used i n Sections 5.1-5 .4. The p r o j e c t i s complete by 1993. V a r i a t i o n s i n operating costs with the proj e c t stem from the phasing of the project over time. 1 The change i n the slope of the cost curves r e s u l t s from a change i n the annual population growth rate beginning i n 199 6 as discussed i n Chapter Three. 5.2 Generated T r a f f i c The reduction i n user costs brought about by a project causes an increase i n the demand for t r i p s on the o v e r a l l network. This i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figure 5-2. User costs without the p r o j e c t are at l e v e l OA which i n t e r s e c t s the demand curve at B g i v i n g a demand of OC. The project reduces the user costs to a l e v e l OD. Assuming a downward sloping demand curve and depending on the e l a s t i c i t y of demand and thus the slope of the demand curve, demand f o r t r i p s on the network w i l l increase to a l e v e l OF. Be n e f i t s to e x i s t i n g t r i p s are represented by the area i n rectangle DABI. Benefits to generated t r a f f i c are represented by the area i n t r i a n g l e BIE. The increase i n t r i p s caused by the ad d i t i o n of generated t r a f f i c causes a r i s e i n user costs to a l e v e l OG which again a f f e c t s the demand f o r t r i p s on the network. This secondary e f f e c t reduces the o v e r a l l l e v e l of demand to a l e v e l OK. The b e n e f i t s l o s t as a r e s u l t of the reduction i n demand are represented by the area i n rectangle DGHJ. The net benefits to generated t r a f f i c are the 71 to t -(/) O O O ^ Z w a: = o a. ui (/) D ANUAL USER OPERATING COSTS WITH AND-WITHOUT GEIST EXTENSION 1 4 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 "i 1 i i i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 T 3 C H a cn I 4 • WITHOUT P R O J E C T YEAR WITH P R O J E C T FIGURE 5-2 BEHEFITS TO GENERATED TRAFFIC ADJUSTED FOR LOST TRIPS 73 d i f f e r e n c e between rectangle DGHJ and t r i a n g l e BIE. These b e n e f i t s are added to ben e f i t s to e x i s t i n g t r i p s to determine t o t a l user b e n e f i t s ( i . e . , net user benefits are ABEG+BEH). This concept was applied to the evaluation of Geist Extension. The r e s u l t s are presented i n Table 5-2. The actual amount of t r a f f i c generated by the p r o j e c t was estimated on an annual b a s i s using e l a s t i c i t i e s developed by Charles River Associates i n 1968 (Manheim, pg 131) . This study suggests e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r work and shopping t r i p s i n urban areas of -0.494 and -0.878, re s p e c t i v e l y . Using the annual percentage change i n user costs with and without the project an annual l e v e l of generated t r a f f i c was estimated. Using 1995 as an example, the c a l c u l a t i o n was performed as follows: 1995 E x i s t i n g Demand * % Change i n Costs * % Work Trips * E l a s t i c i t y = Generated Work Trips or; (65,813,757) * (4.26%) * (.65) * (.494) = 899,402 For shopping t r i p s : (65,813,757) * (4.26%) * (.35) * (.878) = 860,747 Total 1995 Generated Trips = 1,760,149 The increase i n user costs r e s u l t i n g from the addition of generated t r i p s to the network was c a l c u l a t e d by estimating a r e l a t i o n s h i p between user costs and volume of t r i p s on the network. This volume-cost r e l a t i o n s h i p was estimated as the percentage change i n cost for a percentage change i n volume using t o t a l annual user costs and network demand without the p r o j e c t . The r e l a t i o n s h i p established i s as follows: % Change i n Cost = .0293 + .9735 (% Change i n Volume) 74 TABLE 5-2 CALCULATION OF BENEFITS TO GENERATED TRAFFIC ESTIMATED ANNUAL ANNUAL ADDED TOTAL INCREASE \ RISE DEMAND- GENERATED DAILY DEMAND IN TRAFFIC IN COSTS EXISTING TRAFFIC TRAFFIC E+G E TO G E+G 1986 49883516 0 0 49883516 0.000 0.000 1987 51443428 917788 3070 52361217 0.018 0.020 1988 53052318 494811 1655 53547129 0.009 0.012 1989 54711229 150755 504 54861984 0.003 0.005 1990 56422251 747497 2500 57169753 0.013 0.016 1991 58186656 1599471 5349 59786127 0.027 0.029 1992 60006310 1446028 4836 61452338 0.024 0.026 1993 61882894 1545863 5170 63428757 0.024 0.027 1994 63818082 1650502 5520 65468584 0.025 0.027 1995 65813757 1760149 5887 67573906 0.026 0.028 1996 66743468 2128426 7118 68871895 0.031 0.033 1997 67686364 2280152 7626 69966516 0.033 0.035 1998 68642447 2435475 8145 71077921 0.034 0.036 1999 69612134 2594472 8677 72206605 0.036 0.038 2000 70595425 2757205 9221 73352629 0.038 0.039 2001 71592530 2923743 9778 74516273 0.039 0.041 2002 72603868 3094168 10348 75698036 0.041 0.043 2003 73629438 3268543 10932 76897981 0.043 0.044 2004 74669659 3446952 11528 78116610 0.044 0.046 2005 75724740 3629470 12139 79354210 0.046 0.047 PER UNIT LOST BENEFITS TO NET NET LOSS BENEFITS- BENEFITS GENERATED BENEFITS PROJECT IN EXISTING FROM LOST TRAFFIC GENERATEO BENEFITS TRAFFIC TRAFFIC TRAFFIC TRAFFIC 0 0.000 0 0 0 0 11456 0.075 855 34267 33411 4,067,992 3668 0.039 144 9693 9550 2,251,347 519 0.012 6 876 870 836,243 7294 0.056 409 20953 20544 3,349,313 28992 0.117 3385 93368 89983 7,071,159 23360 0.103 2400 74270 71871 6,390,197 25768 0.107 2754 82609 79854 6,831,925 28359 0.111 3149 91650 88500 7,309,326 31144 0.115 3590 101442 97852 7,805,514 43984 0.140 6176 149423 143248 9,589.414 49470 0.149 7368 169811 162443 10,301,175 55336 0.158 8718 191843 183125 11,035,697 61594 0.166 10236 215584 205348 11,793,565 68252 0.175 11936 241101 229165 12,575,380 75322 0.184 13832 268463 254631 13,381,153 82815 0.192 15938 297741 281803 14,213,312 9074 1 0.201 18268 329007 310739 15,070,698 99111 0.210 20837 362337 341500 15,954,568 107938 0.219 23661 397808 374147 16,865,593 The los s of t r i p s was estimated using the e l a s t i c i t i e s described above and c a l c u l a t e d i n a s i m i l a r manner as generated t r a f f i c . The exception i s that generated volume i s used instead of e x i s t i n g demand. A per u n i t b e n e f i t ( t o t a l annual b e n e f i t s / a n n u a l e x i s t i n g demand) was c a l c u l a t e d and used to determine be n e f i t s to generated t r a f f i c and benefits l o s t to l o s t t r a f f i c . To estimate b e n e f i t s to generated t r a f f i c i t was assumed that the demand curve was l i n e a r i n the area of a n a l y s i s ( l i n e segment BE i n Figure 5-2) . This assumption allows an approximation of per u n i t b e n e f i t s to generate t r a f f i c equal to one-half the per unit benefits to e x i s t i n g t r a f f i c . As i n d i c a t e d i n Table 5-2 the net impact of generated t r a f f i c f o r t h i s p r o j e c t i s small r e l a t i v e to the l e v e l of o v e r a l l user b e n e f i t s . This i s l i k e l y due to the r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l of b e n e f i t s produced by the project and thus the low l e v e l of t r a f f i c generated. As w i l l be shown i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , the impacts of generated t r a f f i c on the outcome of the evaluation are i n s i g n i f i c a n t . 5.3 Comparison pf Costs and Benefits With a stream of user be n e f i t s and project costs having been e s t a b l i s h e d the a n a l y s i s can now move to a comparison of these b e n e f i t s and costs to determine the economic f e a s i b i l i t y of the Geist Road Extension. In t h i s comparison the annual resource flows must be brought to comparable values at a common point i n time. This i s accomplished by discounting the resource 7 6 flows to 1986, the f i r s t year i n which an expenditure on the p r o j e c t i s made. Discounting raises the issue of what the discount rate should be f o r a p u b l i c p r o j e c t . Other issues resolved i n t h i s section include choice of the method to be used i n comparing costs and b e n e f i t s (ie, Benefit/Cost r a t i o , I n t e r n a l Rate of Return, Net Present Value) and the s e n s i t i v i t y of the comparison to changes i n some of the underlying assumptions. 5.3.1 The Discount Rate As mentioned above, i t i s not i n the scope of t h i s paper to resolve the issue of an appropriate discount rate i n a s a t i s f a c t o r y manner. However, given that minor s h i f t s i n the discount rate can a f f e c t the outcome of the a n a l y s i s , a d i s c u s s i o n of the r a t i o n a l e f o r discounting i s provided along with a d i s c u s s i o n of how highway funding i n the U.S. might a f f e c t the rate of discount. There are two d i s t i n c t arguments put f o r t h f o r d i s c o u n t i n g a p r o j e c t ' s resource flows to a common point i n time. F i r s t , i f there i s to be an e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of l i m i t e d resources (labor, c a p i t a l , land, e t c . ) , the p r o j e c t must be at l e a s t as e f f i c i e n t as p r o j e c t s (private or public) i t might be d i s p l a c i n g (Pearce, pg 83) . This i s the idea that resources r e q u i r e d f o r a p r o j e c t have an opportunity cost and that there e x i s t s a s o c i a l opportunity cost of c a p i t a l . Second, i t i s recognized that people, i n general, would pre f e r t h e i r b e n e f i t s today as opposed to tomorrow. This i s the idea that there e x i s t s a p o s i t i v e s o c i a l time p r e f e r e n c e r a t e (Pearce, pg 38) . E i t h e r one of these could serve as a discount rate f o r t h i s p r o j e c t . 77 Under i d e a l conditions, where there i s an optimal l e v e l of investment i n the economy, the s o c i a l opportunity cost and s o c i a l time preference rate would be equal (Pearce, pg 4 4 ) . However, i n r e a l i t y the two d i f f e r with s o c i a l o p p ortunity costs being higher than the rate of s o c i a l time preference (Pearce, pg 4 6 ) . 2 In the course of determining a discount rate f o r t h i s p r o j e c t i t i s important to keep i n mind that the l e v e l of decision f or the p r o j e c t rests with a p u b l i c agency (ADOT/PF) which re c e i v e s the bulk of i t s c a p i t a l f i n a n c i n g through d i r e c t grants from government funds (both f e d e r a l and state) . The funds to be used on the p r o j e c t are earmarked at the f e d e r a l l e v e l f o r use s p e c i f i c a l l y i n highway-related projects. Further, the state must a l l o c a t e t h i s money to a l l urban areas i n the state on the basis of p o p u l a t i o n or miles of major highways. Thi3 r e s t r i c t s the a l t e r n a t i v e opportunities to use these c a p i t a l resources. There are also problems i n the use of a s o c i a l time preference rate. As noted by Sugden and Williams: " I f p r i v a t e marginal time preference rate3 (MTPR) d i f f e r - as they do - a s o c i a l MTPR can be constructed from these private rates only i n a highly a r b i t r a r y way" (Sugden and Williams, pg 223). Again, i t i s not the purpose of t h i s paper to resolve these issues. Rather, the importance of d i s c o u n t i n g the costs and b e n e f i t s of the p r o j e c t i s recognized and the a l t e r n a t i v e approaches to determining an appropriate discount rate have been discussed. 78 As a b a s i s of comparison and g u i d e l i n e s f o r t h i 3 study the f o l l o w i n g discount rates are referenced from other studies: 12 percent: U3ed by Pakistan Planning Commission and recommended f o r developing countries (Adler, 1987, pg 54); 5.13 p e r c e n t : Used i n a n a l y s i s of Alaska'3 Dalton Highway (1986) as representative of U.S./Canadian s o c i a l time preference rate (Olson, pg 9 ) 3 ; Range of 5-15 percent: U3ed i n Sitka Bypass Study (1984) (Quadra, pg 3). A range of discount rates between 5 and 15 percent w i l l be used to assess the s e n s i t i v i t y of the analysis to changes i n the rate. 5.3.2 Methods for Comparing Costs and Benefits There are three commonly used methods for comparing the discounted costs and b e n e f i t s of public investments i n transportation p r o j e c t s : 1) Net Present Value (NPV) of a p r o j e c t - the d i f f e r e n c e between the discounted value of costs and benefits, 2) Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) - the discounted p r o j e c t benefits d i v i d e d by discounted project costs, and 3) I n t e r n a l Rate of Return (IRR) - the discount r a t e at which the d i f f e r e n c e between project costs and benefits equals zero. In general, a project can be s a i d to be acceptable i f : 1) the NPV i s greater than zero at an acceptable discount rate, or 2) the B/C Ratio i s greater than one at an acceptable discount rate, or 3) the IRR exceeds the acceptable discount rate. Where there i s a need to determine the best of a set of a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s to a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problem, or where there i s a need to get the most value out of a l i m i t e d c a p i t a l budget, the appropriate measure to use i s NPV. 79 In most cases the a n a l y s i s w i l l be of two or more a l t e r n a t i v e p r o j e c t s ( i . e . , between b u i l d i n g at-grade or an overpass over the r a i l r o a d tracks, e t c . ) . However, given the lack of resources necessary to evaluate the various a l t e r n a t i v e s proposed f o r the Geist Extension, and because the primary purpose of t h i s study i s to i l l u s t r a t e the tasks i n v o l v e d i n generating the p r o j e c t resource flows which underly an economic a n a l y s i s , only one a l t e r n a t i v e project (the one chosen as the " b u i l d " a l t e r n a t i v e ) i s analyzed. In t h i s case, a p o s i t i v e NPV at an acceptable discount rate would indicate that the project i s worthwhile. I f SBCA were used by ADOT/PF to determine projects to be included i n i t s c a p i t a l budget, the o b j e c t i v e would be to maximize the NPV of b e n e f i t s per u n i t of c a p i t a l budgeted. If t h i s p r o j e c t ' s NPV i s greater than zero, i t would be considered as a p o t e n t i a l project i n the budgeting process. I f there i s no need to p r i o r i t i z e or rank one p r o j e c t over another, then e i t h e r a B/C r a t i o greater than one or an IRR which exceeds a t h r e s h o l d discount rate would i n d i c a t e that a project i s j u s t i f i e d . This approach i s used by the World Bank i n the e v a l u a t i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o j e c t s submitted to i t for f i n a n c i n g (Adler, pg 53) . Adler notes that there are two reasons for the World Bank's approach (Adler, pg 53 ) : " F i r s t , i t has not been p r a c t i c a l f o r the Bank to estimate a p p r o p r i a t e d i s c o u n t r a t e s f o r the more than one hundred developing countries who are members of the Bank. Second, the Bank must assure i t s e l f only that the project i s j u s t i f i e d ; i t need not be the highest p r i o r i t y project i n the country". Without f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s , i t cannot be determined whether the G e i s t Extension as described i n t h i s study represents the best a l t e r n a t i v e 8 0 or whether i t would be included i n the most e f f i c i e n t set of ADOT/PF c a p i t a l expenditures for 1985. However, by assuring that the project's IRR exceeds a target discount rate or by observing whether the B/C r a t i o i s greater than one at an acceptable discount rate, a d e c i s i o n can be made on the project's general a c c e p t a b i l i t y . Results of the analysis are presented below using a l l three methods: NPV (discounted at 5%) - $5,579,985 B/C Ratio (discounted at 5%) .944 IRR 4.28% Using any of these measures the recommendation would be to not make the investment as presently proposed. Assuming f i v e percent i s the minimum acceptable discount rate, the NPV i s negative, the B/C Ratio i s l e s s than one, and the IRR f a l l s below the threshold. The above f i g u r e s r e f l e c t high growth and high value of time assumptions. The s e n s i t i v i t y of the analysis to changes i n these and other assumptions i s discussed below. 5.3.3 S e n s i t i v i t y A n a l y s i s Given the complexity involved i n g e n e r a t i n g p r o j e c t cash flows, i t i s important f o r the analyst to determine the s e n s i t i v i t y of the cash flows to changes i n the underlying assumptions. 81 For t h i s study the following parameters were analyzed to assess t h e i r impact on net project b e n e f i t s : Generated t r a f f i c , Accident cost savings, Value of time, Population growth, Discount rate, and Project construction costs. 5.3.3.1 Generated T r a f f i c . Accident Cost Savings, and Value of Time Fig u r e 5-3 i l l u s t r a t e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p r o j e c t ' s b e n e f i t s among v e h i c l e operating costs (VOC), Time Costs (TC), Accident Costs (ACC) and Generated T r a f f i c (GEN). Figure 5-3 also present the d i f f e r e n c e i n t h i s d i s t r i b u t i o n using high and low values of time (discussed i n Chapter Four). For reference, the values of time discussed i n Chapter Four are as follows: Value of Low Value of Time Time (S/Hr) Non-Work Trips $ 0.63 Work Trips 1.43 Truck Trips 2.75 High Value of Time Non-Work Trips $11.62 Work Trips 11.62 Truck Trips 23.71 The b e n e f i t s r e s u l t i n g from a c c i d e n t c o s t . savings are r e l a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . The impacts of generated t r a f f i c , are also i n s i g n i f i c a n t . Time and v e h i c l e operating cost savings are the major areas of p r o j e c t b e n e f i t . This i s t y p i c a l of most highway projects of t h i s type. 82 F i g u r e 5-3 EFFECTS OF VARIOUS BENEFITS FOR BOTH HIGH ANO LOW VALUES OF TIME LOW VALUE Or TIME HIGH VALUE OF TIME BENEFIT CATEGOF ZZ3 ACC f V \ ] VOC VOT QT 83 The most uncertain assumptions r e l a t e d to the c a l c u l a t i o n of savings to generated t r a f f i c and accident costs r e l a t e to the e l a s t i c i t y of demand and accident rates r e s p e c t i v e l y . Given t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y minor c o n t r i b u t i o n to o v e r a l l project benefits i t i s safe to conclude that no reasonable change i n these assumptions would s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r the a n a l y s i s . The s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t of a lower value of time i s that t o t a l net b e n e f i t s are lower. As i n d i c a t e d i n Figure 5-3, the Present Value of the p r o j e c t s b e n e f i t s , discounted at f i v e percent and using a high value of time i s -$5.6 m i l l i o n ; four times higher than the p r o j e c t ' s b e n e f i t s using a low value of time. The e f f e c t of value of time on o v e r a l l benefits i s to be expected given the d i f f e r e n c e s i n low and high unit values of time. As discussed i n Chapter Four, these values were estimated from the perspective of time saved per t r i p - the more time saved per t r i p , the higher the value. It i s not p o s s i b l e to determine the actual time saved f o r each t r i p , nor i s i t p o s s i b l e to determine each i n d i v i d u a l s t r i p maker's value of time. What can be s a i d i s that there i s l i k e l y to be a range of t r a v e l time savings and a range of i n d i v i d u a l valuations of that savings. It i s reasonable to conclude that the range between the high and low values of time used f o r various t r i p types are probable averages and thus provide an adequate range of values f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s . The outcome of the analysis (rejection of the project) i s i n s e n s i t i v e the -value of time within t h i s range of values. 5.3.3.2 Population Growth and Discount Rate Figure 5-4 i l l u s t r a t e s the e f f e c t s of d i f f e r e n t growth and discount rates. Using the benefit-cost r a t i o as a means of comparison, benefits only exceed 84 costs i n the range of negative discount rates when moderate growth i s assumed. Assuming high growth, benefits exceed costs when the discount rate i s 4 . 2 8 percent or l e s s . This i s well below the 5 . 1 3 percent used i n the Dalton Highway Benefit-Cost a n a l y s i s and the 5 to 1 5 percent used i n the Sitka Bypass study. 5 . 3 . 3 . 3 Pro-iect Costs While every e f f o r t i s made to estimate project costs accurately, these are t y p i c a l l y a source of u n c e r t a i n t y i n economic a n a l y s i s . Figure 5 - 5 i l l u s t r a t e s the impact of changes i n project costs. Increases from the base cost estimate are made ranging from 1 0 to 4 0 percent. B e n e f i t - c o s t r a t i o s are c a l c u l a t e d using discount rates of zero and f i v e percent; assuming a high growth rate and high value of time. With a discount rate of f i v e percent the project has a B/C r a t i o l e s s than one even under the r e l a t i v e l y o p t i m i s t i c high growth assumptions and using a high value of time. Thus, should costs a c t u a l l y exceed those estimated f o r the base case, the project i s even more unacceptable. When no discount rate i s used benefits exceed costs throughout the range of cost increases analyzed. While t h i s i s an u n r e a l i s t i c a l l y low discount .rate i t i l l u s t r a t e s that even under i n f e a s i b l e assumptions the p r o j e c t i s only marginally acceptable. As i n the case using a f i v e percent discount rate, should costs exceed those estimated f o r the base case, the p r o j e c t becomes less and less a t t r a c t i v e . 8 5 E F F E C T S Figure 5-4 O F G R O W T H A N D D I S C O U N T RATE t r.Rnw m ?xnn N \ \ \ \ \ ^ODf RATE 3R0W1 H BE> EF1T>( iOSTF ATIO I •-fa., , * * * * * — . -0.050 -0.030 -0.010 0.010 0.030 0.000 0.070 0.090 OISCOUNT RATE Figure 5-5 IMPACT O F C H A N G E S IN C O N S T R U C T I O N C O S T S (ASSUMING HIGH GROWTH. HIGH VOT) [—t:—tn \ \ \ \\\ V/, y// \ V 'V/ 777 / / / s \ \ V/Y Y / / / / / Y / / / / Y YYY / / / / / / / / s \ \ \ Y/Y '// YY/ YY V/ V// \ ^ >^ YY v \ \ / Y Y \ \ \ YY w. YY / / / Y Y A Y\S YY \ \ \ Y// Y.Y/ \ v \ ~7YA w, 'A \ \ " YY/ YY/ YY/ YYA BASE +10X +20% +30% +40* CONSTRUCTION COST SCENARIOS 1771 DISCOUNTED AT 5 % H-T^  DISCOUNTED AT 0 % 8 6 5.4 R e s u l t s o f A n a l y s i s M e y e r a n d M i l l e r n o t e t h a t t h e r e a r e t h r e e m a j o r p u r p o s e s i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s w h i c h l e a d s t o i n v e s t m e n t o f p u b l i c r e s o u r c e s ( M e y e r a n d M i l l e r , p g 3 7 3 ) : 1 ) E v a l u a t i o n i s t h e p r o c e s s w h e r e b y d e t e r m i n a t i o n i s made d e f i n i n g how v a l u e i s t o b e m e a s u r e d a n d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e s o u r c e a n d t i m i n g o f b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s o f p r o p o s e d a c t i o n s a r e made; 2 ) E v a l u a t i o n p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n t o d e c i s i o n m a k e r s o n t h e i m p a c t o f p o l i c y p r o p o s a l s , t r a d e - o f f s , a n d m a j o r a r e a s o f u n c e r t a i n t y ; a n d 3 ) E v a l u a t i o n p r o v i d e s p l a n n e r s w i t h a n o p p o r t u n i t y t o i d e n t i f y a r e a s o f f u r t h e r s t u d y . T h i s s e c t i o n p r o v i d e s a summary o f t h e e c o n o m i c e v a l u a t i o n b a s e d o n t h e s e p u r p o s e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h i s s u m m a r y p r o v i d e s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e s o u r c e a n d t i m i n g o f b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s o f t h e p r o j e c t , a n d d i s c u s s e s a r e a s o f u n c e r t a i n t y , c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h e s t u d y a n d a r e a s o f f u r t h e r s t u d y . W h i l e m u ch o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n b e l o w i s a r e p e t i t i o n o f t h e a n a l y s i s p r e s e n t e d i n s e c t i o n s 5 . 1 - 5 . 3 , t h i s s e c t i o n p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e e v a l u a t i o n w h i c h w o u l d l i k e l y b e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e a n a l y s t i n t h e p u b l i c d e c i s i o n s t e p o u t l i n e d i n F i g u r e 1 - 1 . T a b l e 5 - 3 p r o v i d e s e s t i m a t e s o f p r o j e c t c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s f o r 1 9 8 6 t h r o u g h 2 0 0 5 . B e n e f i t s a r e p r e s e n t e d b y c a t e g o r y : s a v i n g s i n a c c i d e n t c o s t s , v e h i c l e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , t i m e c o s t s a n d g e n e r a t e d t r a f f i c . T h e s e f i g u r e s a r e d e v e l o p e d a s s u m i n g a h i g h g r o w t h s c e n a r i o a n d a h i g h v a l u e o f t i m e . 8 7 TABLE 5-3 SUHMARY OF GEIST EXTENSION COSTS AND BENEFITS ANNUAL BENEFITS ANNUAL COSTS VEHICLE TIME ACCIDENT SAVIN6S TO OPERATING COST COST 6ENERATED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION MAINTENANCE TOTAL COST SAVINGS SAVIN6S SAVINGS TRAFFIC 8ENEFITS COSTS COSTS COSTS 1986 0 0 0 0 W 26000000 61236 $26,061,236 1987 961883 2879498 193199 33411 $4,067,992 0 61236 $61,236 1988 486844 1591754 163200 9550 $2,251,347 15400000 115236 $15,515,236 1989 1083360 -447751 199764 870 $836,243 23500000 330624 $23,830,624 1990 584584 2578550 165634 20544 $3,349,313 23100000 330624 $23,420,624 1991 1657966 5135242 187968 89983 $7,071,159 0 330624 $330,624 1992 1478852 4685193 154281 71871 $6,390,197 28100000 336024 $23,436,024 1993 1500856 5112947 144267 79854 $6,837,925 0 336024 $336,024 1994 1522751 5564683 133391 88500 $7,309,326 0 336024 $336,024 1995 1544508 6041548 121605 97852 $7,805,514 0 336024 $336,024 1996 1598918 7772351 74897 143248 $9,589,414 0 336024 $336,024 1997 1628438 8453244 57050 162443 $10,301,175 0 336024 $336,024 1998 1658481 9155475 38615 183125 $11,035,697 0 336024 $336,024 1999 1689058 9879584 19576 205348 $11,793,565 0 336024 $336,024 2000 1720176 10626119 -80 229165 $12,575,380 0 336021 $336,024 2001 1751846 11395645 -20370 254631 $13,381,753 0 336024 $336,024 2002 1784077 . 12188739 -41307 281803 $14,213,312 0 336024 $336,024 2003 1816879 13005988 -62908 310739 $15,070,698 0 336024 $336,024 2004 1850261 13847996 -85189 341500 $15,954,568 0 336024 $336,024 2005 1884234 14715379 -108166 374147 $16,365,593 0 336024 $336,024 BENEFIT/ COST RATIO NET PRESENT VALUE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN HIGH GROWTH 0.94 ($5,579,985) 4.28* 0.56 ($43,500,571) -1.20* MODERATE 6R0HTH IMPACT AREAS —OTHER IMPACTS— --RESULTS OF EIS AIR Reduction in Carbon Mono.ride emaissions. NOISE Minor decreases along major existing roads. Increases along Geist Rd. and project area. WETLANDS No significant impacts. HISTORIC Seven historic sites require some relocation. DISPLACEMENT 14 rental units 6 residences 17 businesses 88 Using these assumptions time costs savings provide the major source of b e n e f i t s . Accident cost savings and savings to generated t r a f f i c are r e l a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . 4 Construction would take place over seven years at a cost of $116.1 m i l l i o n . Using a discount rate of 5 percent the project has a net present value of -$5.6 m i l l i o n with a b e n e f i t / c o s t r a t i o of .94. The p r o j e c t ' s i n t e r n a l rate of return i s 4.28 percent. While the measure of value used to evaluate the project i s the economic cost expressed i n d o l l a r terms, there are project impacts which are d i f f i c u l t to q u a n t i f y i n t h i s manner. These impacts include p o s s i b l e increases i n a i r and noise p o l l u t i o n , destruction or d i s r u p t i o n of wetlands areas, disruption of h i s t o r i c s i t e s and displacement of households and businesses. Table 5-3 includes a b r i e f summary of project impacts i n these categories based on an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) prepared by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public F a c i l i t i e s . 5.4.1 Recommendations Given the r e s u l t s of the economic analysis, the project i s not recommended as an acceptable p u b l i c investment. This recommendation i s strengthened given the current recessionary trends i n the Fairbanks economy and the slowed growth i n population which has occured. Table 5-3 also provides the r e s u l t s of the economic analysis using a more moderate growth assumption. Under t h i s more r e a l i s t i c assumption, the net present value of the project i s -$43.5 m i l l i o n with a benefit/cost r a t i o of .56. The i n t e r n a l rate of return of the project i s -1.2 percent. 89 W h i l e t h i s a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p r o j e c t a s p r o p o s e d d o e s n o t make e c o n o m i c s e n s e , i t d o e s n o t f o l l o w t h a t no i n v e s t m e n t i s r e q u i r e d . T h e a n a l y s i s w h i c h was d o n e t o e s t a b l i s h t h e p r o j e c t r e s o u r c e f l o w s i n d i c a t e d a r e a s o f s e v e r e c o n g e s t i o n e v e n u n d e r m o d e r a t e p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h a s s u m p t i o n s . T h e p r o j e c t a n a l y z e d i s r e a l l y a s e t o f s e v e r a l s m a l l e r p r o j e c t s . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t some o f t h e s e p r o j e c t s ' b e n e f i t s may e x c e e d t h e i r c o s t s . T h e s e s m a l l e r p r o j e c t s s h o u l d b e a n a l y z e d i n d i v i d u a l l y u s i n g t h e m e t h o d p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s s t u d y t o d e t e r m i n e a more e f f i c i e n t " p a c k a g e " o f p r o j e c t s t o i n v e s t i n . F i g u r e 5 - 6 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e s e v e r a l s m a l l e r p r o j e c t s w h i c h s h o u l d b e a n a l y z e d o n a n i n d i v i d u a l b a s i s . T h e s e s m a l l e r p r o j e c t s i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g : - G e i s t E x t e n s i o n t o d o w n t o w n w i t h i m p r o v e m e n t s t o I l l i n o i s S t r e e t ( w i t h a n d w i t h o u t r a i l r o a d o v e r p a s s ) ; - L i n k i n g C o l l e g e R o a d a n d t h e S t e e s e H i g h w a y ; -New N o r t h - S o u t h L i n k o f P e g e r R o a d a n d C o l l e g e R o a d . T h e s e p r o j e c t s c o u l d b e a n a l y z e d i n c o m b i n a t i o n s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e m o s t e f f i c i e n t u s e o f r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e . G i v e n t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i n A l a s k a , a n o t h e r a r e a o f f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h w o u l d b e t o d e t e r m i n e t h e o p t i m u m t i m i n g o f t h e p r o j e c t s u n d e r v a r i o u s g r o w t h a s s u m p t i o n s . 90 F i g u r e 5-6 P o t e n t i a l S u b - P r o j e c t s f o r F u r t h e r A n a l y s i s O o +> 5C 91 The a c t u a l p r e s e n t a t i o n to p u b l i c decision-makers would provide more s u c c i n c t conclusions and recommendations ( i . e . , congestion e x i s t s along A i r p o r t Road, College Road; recommend constr u c t i o n of XYZ p r o j e c t ) . Given the r e s u l t s of t h i s study - that the "package" i s not f e a s i b l e but i n d i v i d u a l p a r t s may be good investments and that the system a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s problems i n the future; i t i s l i k e l y that the information would not be presented to elected o f f i c i a l s . Rather, a management decision at the Department of Transportation would l i k e l y be made to carry-out f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s as suggested above. Electe d o f f i c i a l s would be presented with the r e s u l t s of more d e t a i l e d analysis on the smaller p r o j e c t s . 92 F O O T N O T E S C H A P T E R F I V E 1 . This v a r i a t i o n i n costs occurs as the r e s u l t of two f a c t o r s . F i r s t , the various phases of the p r o j e c t . a f f e c t o v e r a l l operating d i f f e r e n t l y (e.g., major downward impacts on c o s t s seem to r e s u l t from phases b u i l t i n 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 3 ) . Second, o p e r a t i n g c o s t s without the p r o j e c t are d r i v e n p r i m a r i l y by the p o p u l a t i o n f o r e c a s t s which determine o v e r a l l t r a f f i c demand. The growth between 1 9 8 6 and 1 9 8 7 i s i n a n t i c i p a t i o n of an increase i n personnel at a nearby army base. A f t e r that, population i s i n t e r p o l a t e d between 1 9 8 7 , 1 9 9 5 and 2 0 0 5 . Operating costs wit the p r o j e c t are driven both by population forecasts and impacts of the d i f f e r e n t project phases. One oddity i n Figure 5 - 1 i s that user costs with the project r i s e at a f a s t e r rate than those without the p r o j e c t between 1 9 8 7 and 1 9 8 9 . This r e s u l t s from the way i n which the p r o j e c t i s phased. Con s t r u c t i o n of various sections i n 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 8 9 increase volumes on e x i s t i n g s e c t i o n f of the network ( I l l i n o i s f o r example) which are not improved u n t i l l a t e r phases ( I l l i n o i s i s widened i n 1 9 9 3 ) . This causes operating costs to r i s e on some road segments f a s t e r with the project than without the project. 2 . The primary reasons for t h i s d i f f e r e n c e have been a t t r i b u t e d to (Pearce, pg 4 5 ) : 1 ) Corporate taxation, and 2 ) The apparent d i f f e r e n c e i n r i s k between private and p u b l i c p r o j e c t s . 3 . Olson references the following study: Kula, Erhun, "Derivation of S o c i a l Time Preference Rates for the United States and Canada," Quarterly Journal  of Economics, Vol. 9 9 (November, 1 9 8 4 ) , p. 8 7 3 - 8 7 8 . 4 . As discussed e a r l i e r , b e n e f i t s to generate t r a f f i c are negative over the l i f e of the p r o j e c t . The negative time cost savings i n 1 9 8 9 stems from the way the p r o j e c t was phased as d i s c u s s e d i n Section 5 - 2 . The negative accident cost savings i n years 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 5 r e s u l t i n part from the l i n e a r e x t r a p o l a t i o n which was used to derive values between 1 9 9 5 and 2 0 0 5 . The 2 0 0 5 accident cost analysis i n d i c a t e d 1 , 7 9 5 accidents on the network without the project and 1 , 8 4 4 accidents with the project. It i s not improbable that there would be more accidents with the p r o j e c t than without i t . While v e h i l c e miles of t r a v e l are approximately the same ( 2 5 2 . 3 mvm without vs. 2 5 2 . 0 6 with); t r a v e l i s r e d i s t r i b u t e d over the network, i n c r e a s i n g d r a m a t i c a l l y on some road segments. As a r e s u l t , accident rates on each road segment are changed and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of accident types i s a f f e c t e d . For example, i n 2 0 0 5 , without the p r o j e c t the a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d 1 , 7 9 5 f a t a l a c c i d e n t s at a cost of $ 7 7 4 , 7 1 0 . This compares to 1 , 8 4 4 f a t a l accidents with the project at a cost of $ 7 9 5 , 7 1 9 ; a $ 2 1 , 0 0 0 d i f f e r e n c e . 9 3 CHAPTER SIX Conclusions In the i n t r o d u c t i o n to t h i s study two issues were r a i s e d as c e n t r a l to the d i s c u s s i o n of evaluation of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n investments: 1) s p e c i f y i n g the set of techniques used i n the a n a l y s i s , and 2) recognizing the p o l i t i c a l nature of the decision-making process which uses the information generated by the a n a l y s i s . This study has focused on the techniques used i n e v a l u a t i n g investments; s p e c i f i c a l l y economic a n a l y s i s . This chapter summarizes the methodology used to assess the proposed investment presented i n the case study and presents the fin d i n g s of recent e m p i r i c a l research comparing economic analysis and other evaluation techniques. Understanding the p o l i t i c a l nature of the decision-making process i n which a n a l y s i s i s presented i s at l e a s t as important as using proper a n a l y t i c a l techniques. For t h i s reason, as a means of t y i n g the t e c h n i c a l analysis i n t o the broader decision-making framework, the use of economic analysis i n t h i 3 process i s also discussed b r i e f l y i n t h i s chapter. 6.1.2 Conclusions Regarding Evaluation Technique Used i n Geist Extension Case Study The economic analysis used i n t h i s study to evaluate the Geist Extension was c a r r i e d out based on a f a i r l y d e t a i l e d analysis of the road network affected by the p r o j e c t . Assumptions had to be made regarding several i n t e r r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s . The a n a l y s i s was shown to be s e n s i t i v e to both the l e v e l of fut u r e population growth and the value of time assumed. User costs were based on assumptions of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between speed and t r a f f i c volumes, land use patterns, d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r a f f i c by time of day, veh i c l e mix, etc. The complexity of the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s and t h e i r v a r i a b i l i t y over the course of a si n g l e road segment points to the need for the d e t a i l taken. Most of the data used i n the system a n a l y s i s i s generated r o u t i n e l y by t r a n s p o r t a t i o n planning e f f o r t s i n most c i t i e s . Thus, the approach used i n t h i s study could t i e f a i r l y e a s i l y i n t o the types of a n a l y s i s c u r r e n t l y being performed i n most urban areas. Systems data required for development of various scenarios used i n an economic analysis could be produced without much a d d i t i o n a l e f f o r t . The data which are not always a v a i l a b l e at the l o c a l l e v e l p e r t a i n more to the economic aspects of urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . For example, bet t e r data would be welcomed regarding v e h i c l e operating costs and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to speed and r e l a t i v e t r a v e l conditions ( i . e . t r a f f i c volumes, delay, e t c . ) . More p r e c i s e data on how people value time for various t r i p s , the response of t r a v e l e r s to congestion on a p a r t i c u l a r road ( i . e . , the extent to which people switch modes or t r a v e l paths) and the r e l a t i o n s h i p between accidents and t r a f f i c volumes would also improve the a n a l y s i s . However, the need for t h i s data i s not a detraction from the use of b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s . Even with e x i s t i n g data benefit-cost analysis i s superior to the simple minimum conditions standards often employed. As Gomez-Ibonez and O'Keefe point out, " b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s makes the need for or b e n e f i t s from t h i s data more obvious" (Gomez-Ibanez and O'Keefe, pg 86). 6.2 The Role of Analysts i n the Transportation Investment Decision Making Process 6.2.1 Description of the Transportation Investment Decision Making Process The decision-making process which leads to the investment of p u b l i c resources i n transportation f a c i l i t i e s was described b r e i f l y i n Section 5.1. It was noted that there i s often an overlap of p o l i c y debate and project 95 d i s c u s s i o n i n t h i s process. George Wilson has noted that p o l i t i c i a n s are often a f f e c t e d by what he c a l l s the "Great Transportation Mystique" - the mindset that investment i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e can solve the economic problems faced by a region (Wilson, pg 43) . In the p u r s u i t of s o c i a l and economic development adequate t r a n s p o r t a t i o n can, i n some instances, be a p r e r e q u i s i t e - though no guarantee of success. Despite the f a c t u a l a n a l y s i s presented i n the process of making the investment d e c i s i o n p o l i t i c a l considerations can, and often do, dominate the process. Michael Meyer quotes an i n s i g h t f u l observation made by J.F. Coates on p u b l i c p o l i c y decision-making i n the U.S. context: "Decision-making i s disaggregated among at l e a s t three l e v e l s of government and numerous agencies at each l e v e l . No one has p l e n i p o t e n t i a r y power. While no one person, agency or i n s t i t u t i o n i s i n charge or has a c l e a r f i e l d or the authority to accomplish things, often dozens, i f not scores, of units of government have the power to intervene, to slow down, or to stop a c t i o n by others" (in Meyer, 1981, page 3) . This observation leads to the conclusion that there are, regardless of the existence of an underlying objective process i n the s e l e c t i o n of p r o j e c t s , and to a c e r t a i n extent t h e i r p r i o r i t i z a t i o n , many p o i n t s at which p o l i t i c i a n s and t h e i r l o b b y i s t s can exert i n f l u e n c e . 6.2.2 The Role of Analysts Sugden and Williams, i n t h e i r book "The P r i n c i p l e s of P r a c t i c a l Cost-Benefit A n a l y s i s " discuss the l i m i t s of the role of the analyst and what the 96 r e l a t i o n s h i p between the a n a l y s t and decision-maker ought to be i n determining the nature of a cost-benefit a n a l y s i s . They note that c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s has two e s s e n t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : consistency and e x p l i c t n e s s (Sugden and Williams, pg 236) . The a n a l y s i s should be consistent i n that d e c i s i o n s between a l t e r n a t i v e s should be i n l i n e with o b j e c t i v e s . It should be e x p l i c i t i n showing that a p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n i s a l o g i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n of p a r t i c u l a r , 3 t a t e d objectives (Sugden and Williams, pg 234). Objectives i n p a r t i c u l a r need to be e x p l i c i t and consistent. Without t h i s , c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i s l i t t l e more than window-dressing (Sugden and Williams, pg 234) . If o b j e c t i v e s are not e x p l i c i t a d e c i s i o n maker need only revise h i s to ensure the a n a l y s i s provides the 'right' answer. Some analysts f e e l strongly that "At present so many issues and c o n f l i c t s are concealed, both among o b j e c t i v e s and a l t e r n a t i v e means, that the d i s c r e t i o n of the p o l i c y maker i s augmented beyond what i s necessary or d e s i r a b l e " (Steiner, pg 297) . The d e c i s i o n maker should be responsible to the community. Given that h i s decision-making r i g h t s "stem from the consent of the community, expressed through the p o l i t i c a l system"; the community ought to have the r i g h t to hold the d e c i s i o n maker accountable f o r h i s d e c i s i o n s (Sugden and Williams, pg 241) . 97 From t h i s perspective c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s " a s s i s t s the decision-maker to pursue o b j e c t i v e s that are, by v i r t u e of the community's assent to the decision-making process, s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s . And by making e x p l i c i t what these o b j e c t i v e s are, i t m a k e 3 the decision-maker more accountable to the community" (Sugden and Williams, pg 2 4 1 ) . Thus, the r o l e of the analyst i s to a s s i s t , "not simply a decision-maker, but a decision-making process that has the assent of the community as a whole" (Sugden and Williams, pg 2 4 0 ) . Within t h i s framework the r o l e of the analyst includes the following tasks: 1 . The a n a l y s t should a s s i s t i n a thorough development of a l t e r n a t i v e s ensuring that "important and p r a c t i c a b l e p o l i c y options are not ignored" (Sugden and Williams, pg 2 3 1 ) . For example, as disc u s s e d i n Chapter Five , the d e c i s i o n faced by the community of Fairbanks would have b e n e f i t e d from, not only a broader range of a l t e r n a t i v e s , but a more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s on s p e c i f i c parts of the project as analyzed i n the case study. 2 . Given t h a t c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s "a unique, measurable and operational s o c i a l objective function" (Waters, pg 2 5 ) , the a n a l y s t needs to e l i c i t the o b j e c t i v e s of the decision-makers which are to determine a p a r t i c u l a r course of a c t i o n (Sugden and Williams, pg 2 3 3 ) . While t h i s may not always be possible, the analyst needs to at l e a s t make e x p l i c i t what objectives he i s assuming i n the a n a l y s i s ( i . e . , maximize s o c i a l welfare, minimize d i r e c t user cost, etc) . The s t a t e d o b j e c t i v e s i n the case study were to r e l i e v e c o n g e s t i o n on e x i s t i n g a r t e r i a l s and provide b e t t e r access to downtown, i n economic terms, to lower the d i r e c t user costs on the highway network. 3 . In prese n t i n g the a n a l y s i s , the analyst should show "what judgements remain to be made and what r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t between p a r t i c u l a r v a l u a t i o n s of the 'unvalued' costs and b e n e f i t s and p a r t i c u l a r f i n a l d e c i s i o n s " (Sugden and Williams, pg 2 3 8 ) . This might be accomplished by noting that the a n a l y s i s presented includes only those impacts which could be q u a n t i f i e d . Judgement must be made on the value of unquantified impacts and how they are to a f f e c t the f i n a l d e c i s i o n . I t was noted i n the a n a l y s i s that these impacts were r e l a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t , p o s s i b l y c o n t r i b u t i n g more to the cost of the p r o j e c t . 9 8 4. A t t h e e n d o f t h e a n a l y s i s , t h e a n a l y s t s h o u l d " e n s u r e t h a t h i s f i n d i n g s a r e n o t m i s i n t e r p r e t e d , o r r e a d a s i m p l y i n g m o r e t h a n t h e y r e a l l y d o " ( S u g d e n a n d W i l l i a m s , p g 2 3 1 ) . 1 C a r r y i n g o u t t h e s e t a s k s , a w a r e o f t h e p o l i t i c a l n a t u r e o f t h e i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , t h e a n a l y s t c a n e n s u r e a m o r e e f f e c t i v e u s e o f c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i n t h e p r o c e s s . 6 . 3 C o n c l u s i o n s T h i s s t u d y h a s shown t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f e v a l u a t i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s c a r e f u l l y . T h e r e i s a c o m p l e x s e t o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h u n d e r l y t h e c a l c u l a t e d d e m a n d f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d i t s e f f e c t o n t h e e x i s t i n g s u p p l y . T h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s c a n e f f e c t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f p r o j e c t r e s o u r c e f l o w s u s e d i n a n e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s . A s s u m p t i o n s r e g a r d i n g p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , t h e v a l u e o f t i m e , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f t r a f f i c v o l u m e s t o s p e e d o n a g i v e n r o a d n e t w o r k , e t c . c a n a f f e c t t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f a p a r t i c u l a r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t a s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s . E c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s a s a t e c h n i q u e was s h o w n t o b e u s e f u l i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e i m p a c t s o f a p r o j e c t o n a c o m m u n i t y . C o n c l u s i o n s f r o m e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s w e r e d r a w n o n w h i c h i n d i c a t e d t h a t e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s was s u p e r i o r t o e v a l u a t i o n m e t h o d s c o m m o n l y u s e d a t t h e s t a t e a n d l o c a l l e v e l s . E c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s was s h o w n t o p r o v i d e u s e f u l i n s i g h t s t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d o n a n u r b a n r o a d n e t w o r k a n d t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a l t e r n a t i v e g o v e r n m e n t a c t i o n s . T h e c a s e s t u d y u t i l i z e d a f a i r l y d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e r o a d n e t w o r k a s a w h o l e t o d e v e l o p t h e p r o j e c t r e s o u r c e f l o w s u s e d i n t h e e c o n o m i c e v a l u a t i o n 99 of the proposed project. It was found that the project's costs exceeded i t s b e n e f i t s , though i t was noted that t h i s was l i k e l y due to the fac t that the p r o j e c t was a c t u a l l y a series of several smaller p r o j e c t s . Given that the systems a n a l y s i s indicated areas of high congestion on the network without the p r o j e c t , i t i s l i k e l y that some parts of the project would be e f f i c i e n t investments i f analyzed independently. It i s f e l t that the method used i n the case study to develop the data required f o r the economic analysis i s applicable to and appropriate f o r use i n the e v a l u a t i o n of transportation investments i n other medium-sized and small urban area. Most of the data required f o r the systems a n a l y s i s i s r o u t i n e l y generated by the l o c a l governments. While there i s a cost i n v o l v e d i n d e r i v i n g some of the economic values used i n the a n a l y s i s , the values, once established, can be u t i l i z e d i n several analyses. It was also found to be important to consider the p o l i t i c a l nature of the investment decision-making process and the a f f e c t s t h i s can have on cos t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s . I t was concluded that while, i n the normative sense the analyst should s t r e s s e x p l i c i t n e s s and consistency i n the analysis, t h i s i s often d i f f i c u l t to do given the d i s c r e t i o n of the p o l i t i c a l decision-maker. It i s l i k e l y more p r a c t i c a l to reduce the p o t e n t i a l i n e f f i c i e n c i e s which occur, focusing more on keeping g r o s s l y i n e f f i c i e n t expenditures out of the budget. As Wildavsky notes, "avoiding the worst where one can't get the best i s no small accomplishment" (Wildavsky, 1 9 6 8 , pg 3 8 0 ) . 100 This might be best accomplished by ensuring the a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n of the a n a l y s t , the decision-maker and the community i n the development of a l t e r n a t i v e s and the s e t t i n g of objectives to be used i n the a n a l y s i s . F O O T N O T E S C H A P T E R S I X 1. Sugden and Williams f e e l strongly on t h i s p o i n t noting that the analyst has "the p r o f e s s i o n a l duty to set the record s t r a i g h t , f o r otherwise a n a l y s i s i n general i s brought into d i s r e p u t e " (Sugden and Williams, pg 231) . 101 BIBLIOGRAPHY Adler, Hans (1987) "Economic Appraisal of Transport Projects: A Manual with Case Studies" published f o r The World Bank by John Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press, Baltimore A l t s h u l e r , Alan; Womack, James, P.; and Pucher, John, R.; (1979) "The Urban Transportation System: Politics and Policy Innovation", MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England Baerwald, J.E., ed., et. a l . 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(Markham) (1964) "The P o l i t i c s of the Budgetary Process", (Boston: L i t t l e , Brown and Company) 104 Wilson, George W. ""Economic Analysis of Transportation: A Twenty Five Year Survey", Transportation Journal, p 33-44 Winch, David M. (1962) "The Economics of Highway Planning" (Toronto, Ontario: U n i v e r s i t y of Toronto Press) 105 Notes on Appendices The f o l l o w i n g appendices contain data used to develop the case study and copies of spreadsheets used to c a l c u l a t e volumes, costs, and the evaluation. The layout of the Appendices i s diagrammed i n Figures A - l through A-3. Appendix A contains data and spreadsheets r e l a t e d to the system a n a l y s i s d i s c u s s e d in Chapter Three. Using forecasts of system-wide d a i l y t r i p s t r a f f i c volumes are developed f o r i n d i v i d u a l l i n k s . Using speed-flow look-up tables f o r d i f f e r e n t f a c i l i t y types and land uses, volume/capacity r a t i o s , speeds and t r a v e l times are c a l c u l a t e d f o r four times of day, f o r high and moderate growth scenarios, with and without the p r o j e c t . Appendix B contains data and spreadsheets r e l a t e d to user costs discussed i n Chapter Four. Using the network evaluation o u t l i n e d i n Appendix A, v e h i c l e operating costs, user time costs and accident costs are c a l c u l a t e d f o r each l i n k . Data for the high growth - with project scenario are presented here. Vehicle operating costs are c a l c u l a t e d using cost-volume look-up tables f or both auto and truck. Value of time i s estimated f o r four times of day for t h r e e t r i p purposes. A c c i d e n t c o s t s are c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g the accident-volume r e l a t i o n s h i p s discussed i n Chapter Four. The user costs are used i n the development of the p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n spreadsheets presented i n Appendix C. These spreadsheets are used to prepare the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s and s e n s i t i v i t y t e x t s d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter F i v e . P r o j e c t b e n e f i t s are c a l c u l a t e d f o r e i g h t d i f f e r e n t scenarios: 106 Scenario D e s c r i p t i o n 1 Benefits to e x i s t i n g users assuming high value of time 2 Benefits to e x i s t i n g users assuming low value of time 3 Scenario 1 plus accident cost savings 4 Scenario 2 plus accident cost savings 5 Scenario 1 plus b e n e f i t s to generated t r a f f i c 6 Scenario 2 plus benefits to generated t r a f f i c 7 Scenario 1 plus accident cost savings plus benefits to generated t r a f f i c 8 Scenario 2 plus accident cost savings plus benefits to generated t r a f f i c A NPV, BC/Ratio and IRR are c a l c u l a t e d f or each of these scenarios. Notes on Computer Spreadsheet Used The spreadsheet used f o r the case study was V P - P l a n n e r which i s a combination spreadsheed-database. Four databases were developed to handle the data generated during system analysis and user cost a n a l y s i s : 1) High Growth - with project 2) High Growth - without project 3) Moderate Growth - with project 4) Moderate Growth - without project Documentation on the structure of the databases i s provided i n Table A - l . 107 Figure A-l Guide to Appendix A: System Analysis Forecast of Daily Trips High and Moderate Growth pg 115 Assignment Factors pg 116 Development of Link Volumes For Base and Forecast Years With Project: - High Growth-pg 118 Moderate Growth pg 120 Without Project: - High Growth-pg 116 - Moderate Growth pg 116 Speed-Flow Look-up Tables pg 128 Network Evaluation: - Volume/Capacity Ratios Travel Time and Speed by Time of Day With Project: High Growth-pg 122 - Moderate Growth Without Project: - High Growth - Moderate Growth User Cost Analysis Appendix B See Figure A-2 107A F i g u r e A -2 Guide to Appendix B: User Cost A n a l y s i s Cost/Volume Look-up Tables - Auto Fuel, pg 136 - Auto Other, pg 138 - Truck, pg 139 Value of Time by Trip Purpose System Analysis Appendix A See Figure A-1 Vehicle Operating Costs pg 130 User Time Costs pg 140 Accident-Volume Relationships pg 150 Accident Costs pg 148 Project Evaluation Appendix C See Figure A-3 108 F i g u r e A-3 Guide to Appendix C: Evaluation User Cost Analysis Appendix B See Figure A-2 Project E v a l u a t i o n High Moderate Growth Growth - Existing User Costs Without Project, pg 152 pg 158 - Existing User Costs With Project, pg 152 pg 158 - Calculation of Generated Traffic Benefits, pg 153 pg 159 - Accident Costs With and Without the Project, pg 154 pg 160 Project Benefits Under Various Scenarios High Moderate Growth Growth 1 - Existing User Benefits, High Value of Time, pg 154 pg 160 2 - Existing User Benefits, Low Value of Time, pg 154 pg 160 3 - #1 plus Accident Cost Savings, pg 154 pg 160 4 - #2 plus Accident Cost Savings, pg 154 pg 160 5 - #1 plus Generated Traffic Benefits, pg 154 pg 160 6 - #2 plus Generated Traffic Benefits, pg 154 pg 160 7 - #1 plus Accident Cost Savings and Generated Traffic Benefits, pg 154 pg 160 8 - #1 plus Accident Cost Savings and Generated Traffic Benefits, pg 154 pg 160 Discount Rate Sensitivity A n a l ysis For Each Scenario: High Growth Moderate Growth - Net Present Value, - Benefit/Cost Ratio, - Internal Rate of Return, pg 155 pg 156 pg 157 pg 161 pg 162 pg 163 109 Table A-l G e n e r a l I n f o r m a t i o n : ... . , _ _ . *,*» ******** *.,,,,,* Structure of Database Database Name: G4.DIM Number o f Dimens i o n s : 3 L e n g t h o f Names: S h o r t - 8 c h a r a c t e r s . Long - 30 c h a r a c t e r s . Decimal P l a c e Dimension i s dimension 2. Number d i s p l a y : - Amounts a r e d i s p l a y e d t o 4 Decimal P l a c e s . - R a t e s a r e d i s p l a y e d to 4 Decimal P l a c e s . D i m e n s i o n s : ************ D i m e n s i o n 1 i s : ROAD SEGMENTS The s h o r t name i s : LINK There a r e 100 c a t e g o r i e s i n t h i s d i m e n s i o n . S h o r t Names Long Names 1. 1 2 . 2 3. 3 4 . 4 5 . 5 6. 6 7 . 7 8 . 8 9 . 9 10. AIR 11 . 10 12. 11 13. 12 14 . 13 15 . 14 16. 15 17. STNB 18 . 16 19 . 17 20. 18 21 . 19 22 . 20 23. 21 24 . STWB 25 . 22 26. 23 27 . RICH 28 . 24 29 . 25 30 . 26 31 . 27 32 . 28 33 . 29 34 . SFEEB AIRPORT WAY TOTALS STEESE NB TOTALS STEESE WB TOTALS RICHARDSON HWY TOTALS SOUTH FBKS EXPWY EB TOTS 110 Table A-l 35. 30 36. 31 S t r u c t u r e of Database (cont'd) 37 . 32 38. 33 39. 34 40. 35 41 . SFEWB S FBKS EPWY WB TOTALS 42 . 36 43 . 37 44. 38 45. UNIV UNIVERSITY AVE TOTALS 46. 39 47. PARKS PARKS HWY TOTAL' 48 . 40 49. 41 50. GEIST GEIST RD TOTALS 51. 42 52 . 43 53 . 44 54. 45 55. 46 56. 47 57 . COLL COLLEGE RD TOTALS 58. 48 59. 49 60. 50 61 . 51 62. ILL ILLINOIS ST TOTALS 63. 52 64. 53 65. 54 66. CUSH CUSHMAN ST TOTALS 67. 55 68. 56 69. SCUSH SOUTH CUSHMAN TOTALS 70. 57 71. 58 72 . 59 73. PEG PEGER RD TOTALS 74. 60 75. 61 76. 62 77 . 63 78. PHIL PHILLIPS FIELD RD TOTS 79. 64 80. AUR AURORA ST TOTALS 81. 65 82 . THIRD THIRD ST TOTALS 83 . 66 84 . MIN MINNIE ST TOTALS 85. 67 86. 68 87 . 69 88 . BARN BARNETTE ST TOTALS 111 Table A - l S t r u c t u r e of Database (cont'd) GEIST EXTENSION TOTALS GEIST-ILLINOIS CONN TOTS COLLEGE CONNECTOR NETWORK TOTALS Dimension 2 i s : NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS The s h o r t name i s : CHAR There a r e 24 c a t e g o r i e s i n t h i s d i m e n s i o n . S h o r t Names Long Names 1. AADT AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC Amount 2 . TVOLAM TOTAL VOLUME Amount 3. TVOLMD Amount 4 . TVOLPM Amount 5 . TVOLO Amount 6 . VCRAM VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIO Rate 7 . VCRMD Amount 8 . VCRPM Amount 9 . VCRO Amount 10. TIMEAM TRAVEL TIME PER AUTO TRIP Rate 11 . TIMEMD Amount 12 . TIMEPM Amount 13 . TIMEO Amount 14 . AUTO ADJUSTED OPERATING COST-AUTO Amount 15 . CV COMMERCIAL VEHICLE COSTS(ADJ) Amount 16. TTTHBW Amount 17. TTTHBO Amount 18 . TTTNHB Amount 19 . TIMEHBW TIME COST HBW HIGH Rate 20. TIMEHBO Amount 21 . TIMENHB Amount 22 . LTIMEHBW LOW TIME COST HBW TOTAL Amount 23. LTIMEHBO Amount 24 . LTIMENHB Amount 89. 70 90. 71 91. 72 92 . 73 93 . 74 94. 75 95. GEXT 96. 76 97. GILL 98. 77 99. COLCON 100. NETWORK 112 Table A - l Structure of Database (cont'd) D i m e n s i o n 3 i s : YEAR(1984-2005) The s h o r t name i s : YEAR T h e r e a r e 8 c a t e g o r i e s i n t h i s d i m e n s i o n . S h o r t Names L o n g Names 1. 1986 BASE YEAR 2. 1987 3. 1988 4. 1989 5. 1990 6. 1991 7. 1995 INTERMEDIATE FORECAST YEAR 8. 2005 PROJECT HORIZON YEAR 113 A P P E N D I X A 114 FORECASTS OF TOTAL DAILY TRIPS BY YEAR 1984-2005 HIGH LOW H16H MODERATE 1984 224100 224100 6RQHTH 6R0MTH 1985 231108 228801 RATES RATES 1986 238335 233601 84-95 84-95 1987 245788 238501 .031272 .020978 1988 253475 243505 95-05 95-2005 1989 261401 248613 .014126 .009476 1990 269576 253B2B 1991 278006 259153 1992 286700 264590 1993 295666 270140 1994 304912 275807 1995 314447 281592 1996 318889 284260 1997 323394 286954 1998 327962 289673 1999 332595 292418 2000 337293 295189 2001 342057 297986 2002 346889 300810 2003 3517B9 303660 2004 356759 306538 2005 361800 309443 115 AE8ISNHENT F O R E C A S T E D LINK V O L U H E B FACTORS WITHOUT PROJECT-HODERATE NITH WITHOUT 6R0HTH SCENARIO LINK PROJECT PROJECT 1986 1995 2005 1 .0913 .1153 26931 32464 35674 2 .0915 .1248 29153 35142 38617 3 .1227 .1321 30861 37202 40881 4 .1346 .1605 37496 45199 49670 5 .1219 .1549 36189 43624 47939 6 .1257 .1364 31857 38401 42199 7 .1069 .1510 35285 42533 46740 8 .0610 .1205 28147 33930 37286 9 .0574 .0779 18195 21933 24103 AIR .0000 .0000 0 0 0 10 .0367 .0422 9852 11875 13050 11 .0287 .0269 6283 7574 8323 12 .0224 .0579 13521 16298 17910 13 .0347 .0423 9876 11905 13082 14 .0491 .0518 12111 14600 16043 15 .0380 .0516 12063 14541 15980 STN8 .0000 .0000 0 0 0 16 .0555 .0422 9852 11875 13050 17 .0419 .0269 6283 7574 B323 18 .0292 .0289 6761 8150 8957 19 .0374 .0423 9878 11907 13085 20 .0509 .0519 12113 14602 16046 21 .0467 .0516 12063 14541 15980 STUB .0000 .0000 0 0 0 22 .0685 .0473 11058 13330 14648 23 .0594 .0461 11239 13548 14888 RICH .0000 .0000 0 0 0 24 .0422 .0551 12879 15525 17061 25 .0248 .0324 7579 9136 10040 26 .0370 .0484 11304 13627 14975 27 .0478 .0625 14594 17593 19333 28 .0376 .0491 11473 13830 15198 29 .0299 .0390 9119 10993 12080 SFEEB .0000 .0000 0 0 0 30 .0306 .0400 9333 11250 12363 31 .0186 .0243 5667 6832 7507 32 .0310 .0404 9448 11390 12516 33 .0479 .0625 14611 17613 19355 34 .0445 .0581 13582 16372 17992 35 .0358 .0467 10916 13161 14463 SFEUB .0000 .0000 0 0 0 36 .0574 .0884 20656 24902 27365 37 .0577 .0884 20658 24902 27365 38 .0574 .0977 22819 27507 30228 UNIV .0000 .0000 0 0 0 39 .0728 .0417 9741 11742 12904 PARKS .0000 .0000 0 0 0 40 .0473 .0370 8645 10421 11452 41 .0785 .0837 19552 23569 25900 GEIST .0000 .0000 0 0 0 FORECASTED LINK VOLUMES WITHOUT PROJECT- HI6H GROWTH SCENARIO 1986 1995 2005 27477 36251 41710 29743 39242 45151 31487 41542 47798 38256 50473 58074 36923 48714 56050 32502 42882 49339 36000 47496 54649 28718 37889 43594 18564 24492 28181 0 0 0 10051 13261 15258 6410 8457 9731 13795 18200 20941 10076 13293 15295 12357 16303 18756 12308 16238 18683 0 0 0 10051 13261 15258 6410 8457 9731 6898 9101 10472 10078 13296 15298 12359 16306 18761 12308 16238 1B683 0 0 0 11282 14885 17126 11467 15128 17407 0 0 0 13140 17337 19948 7733 10202 11738 11533 15217 17508 14890 19645 22604 11706 15444 17770 9304 12276 14124 0 0 0 9522 12563 14455 5782 7629 8778 9640 12718 14634 14907 19668 22630 13857 18283 21036 11139 14697 16910 0 0 0 21077 27808 31995 21077 27808 31995 23282 30717 35343 0 0 0 9938 13112 15087 0 0 0 B820 11637 13390 19949 26319 30282 0 0 0 116 V 42 .0329 .0895 20897 25190 27682 43 .0338 .1145 26740 32233 35421 44 .0522 .1033 24126 29083 31959 45 .0B46 .1,252 29253 35263 38750 46 .0642 .1011 23624 28477 31293 47 .0353 .0678 15833 1908& 20973 COLL .0000 .0000 0 0 0 4B .0739 .0648 15129 1B237 20041 49 .0682 .0648 1512? 18237 20041 50 .0804 .0973 22719 27386 30095 51 .08?? .1075 25101 30258 33251 ILL .0000 .0000 0 0 0 52 .0448 .0284 6635 79?B B789 53 .0553 .0757 17693 21327 23437 54 .0389 .0658 15380 18540 20374 CUSH .0000 .0000 0 0 0 55 .0823 .0843 19703 23751 26100 56 .0500 .0701 163B6 19752 21706 SCUSH .0000 .0000 0 0 0 57 .0722 .0366 8547 10303 11322 5B .0815 .0327 7640 9210 10120 59 .0759 .0327 7640 9210 10120 PEB .0000 .0000 0 0 0 60 .0187 .0299 6987 8422 9255 61 .0011 .0443 10354 12481 13716 62 .0186 .0271 6333 7634 8389 63 .0158 .0301 7037 8482 9321 PHIL .0000 .0000 0 0 0 64 .0084 .0454 10605 12784 14049 AUR .0000 .0000 0 0 0 65 .0366 .0463 10807 13027 14315 THIRD .0000 .0000 0 0 0 66 .0492 .0463 10807 13027 14315 HIN .0000 .0000 0 0 0 67 .0519 .0557 13018 15693 17245 68 .0463 .0516 12063 14541 15980 69 .0496 .0506 11812 14238 15647 BARN .0000 .0000 0 0 0 70 .0956 .0000 0 0 0 71 .0701 .0000 0 0 0 72 .0848 .0000 0 0 0 73 .0420 .0000 0 0 0 74 .0410 .0000 0 0 0 75 .0459 .0000 0 0 0 BEIT .0000 .0000 0 0 0 76 .0428 .0000 0 0 0 6ILL .0000 .0000 0 0 0 77 .0489 .0000 0 0 0 COLCON .0000 .0000 0 0 0 NETWORK .0000 0.0000 0 0 0 21321 28130 32366 27282 35994 41415 24615 32476 37367 29846 39377 45307 24102 317?9 36588 16154 21312 24522 0 0 0 15436 20365 23432 15436 20365 23432 23179 30582 35187 25610 33789 38877 0 0 0 6769 8931 10276 18051 23816 27402 15692 20703 23821 0 0 0 20102 26522 30516 16718 22057 25378 0 0 0 8720 11505 13237 7795 10284 11833 7795 10284 11833 0 0 0 7128 9405 10821 10564 13938 16036 6461 8525 9809 7179 9472 10899 0 0 0 10820 14276 16426 0 0 0 11026 14547 16737 0 0 0 11026 14547 16737 0 0 0 13282 17523 20162 12308 16238 18683 12051 15900 18294 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1437145 1653566 117 HIGH 6R0HTH SCENARIO FORECASTED LINK VOLUMES- MITH PROJECT 1986-2005 LINK 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1995 2005 1 28336 27960.87 28835.34 28866.76 29769.53 27357.96 36251 41710 2 30673 30267.45 31214.07 31248.07 32225.32 29612.47 39242 45151 3 32472 32041.75 33043.85 33079.85 34114.39 31346.7 41542 47798 4 39452 38930.2 40147.74 40191.48 41448.43 38079.62 50473 58074 5 38077 37573.39 38748.49 38790.71 40003.84 36753.44 48714 56050 6 33519 33075.02 34109.44 34146.6 35214.49 32356.64 42882 49339 7 37125 36634.05 37779.78 37820.94 39003.75 35835.32 47496 54649 e 29616 29223.75 30137.72 30170.56 31114.1 28592.33 37889 43594 9 19144 18891.07 19481.8B 19503.11 20113.04 18492.94 24492 28181 AIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10365 10228.31 10548.2 10559.69 10889.94 10025.77 13261 15258 11 6611 6523.158 6727.17 6734.499 6945.112 6404.277 8457 9731 12 14226 14037.84 14476.87 14492.64 14945.B8 13749.29 18200 20941 13 10391 10253.36 10574.03 10585.55 10916.61 10050.26 13293 15295 14 12743 12574.56 12967.83 12981.96 133B7.95 12319.05 16303 18758 IS 12692 12524.46 12916.17 12930.24 13334.62 12270.08 1623B 18683 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 10365 10228.31 10548.2 10559.69 10889.94 10025.77 13261 15258 17 6611 6523.158 6727.17 6734.499 6945.112 6404.277 8457 9731 18 7114 7019.962 7239.511 7247.398 7474.052 6889.864 9101 10472 19 10393 10255.45 10576.19 10587.71 10918.83 10052.3 13296 15298 20 12745 12576.65 12969.98 12984.11 13390.18 12321.09 16306 18761 21 12692 12524.46 12916.17 12930.24 13334.62 12270.08 16238 18683 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 11635 11480.76 11839.82 11852.72 12223.4 11221.54 14885 17126 23 11825 11668.63 12033.56 12046.67 12423.42 11405.17 15128 17407 RICH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 13551 13372 13790.21 13805.23 14236.97 13077.18 17337 19948 25 7974 7868.869 8114.967 8123.809 8377.871 7698.303 10202 11738 26 11894 11736.74 12103.8 12116.99 12495.93 11478.84 15217 17508 27 15356 15152.65 15626.55 15643.58 16132.81 14817.63 19645 22604 28 12072 11911.91 12284.46 12297.84 12682.44 11650.06 15444 17770 29 9595 9468.219 9764.336 9774.975 100B0.68 9261.542 12276 14124 SFEEB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 9820 9689.815 9992.863 10003.75 10316.61 9478.135 12563 14455 31 5963 5884.134 6068.16 6074.771 6264.753 5758.38 7629 B778 32 9941 9809.81 10116.61 10127.63 10444.36 9595.421 12718 14634 33 15374 15170.17 15644.62 15661.66 16151.46 14834.75 19668 22630 34 14291 14101.6 14542.63 14558.47 15013.77 13790.31 18283 21036 35 11488 11335.59 11690.11 11702.84 12068.83 11086.75 14697 16910 SFEHB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 21736 21448.14 22118.93 22143.03 22835.53 20992.28 27808 31995 37 21736 21448.14 22118.93 22143.03 22835.53 20992.28 27808 31995 38 24010 23692.11 24433.08 24459.7 25224.65 23185.58 30717 35343 UNIV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 10249 10113.5 10429.8 10441.17 10767.7 9885.158 13112 15087 PARKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 9096 8975.866 9256.585 9266.67 9556.474 8773.205 11637 13390 41 20572 20300.07 20934.95 20957.76 21613.19 19841.73 26319 30282 1 1 8 BE 1ST 0 0 42 21988 21696.55 43 28135 27762.56 44 25385 25048.93 45 30779 30371.83 46 24856 24527.08 47 16659 1643B.36 COLL 0 0 48 15918 15707.77 49 15918 13707.77 §8 urn mi-.n 51 26411 26061.32 ILL 0 0 52 6981 6B88.455 53 18616 1B369.21 54 16183 15968.69 CUSH 0 0 55 20731 20456.62 56 17241 17012.4 SCUSH 0 0 57 8993 8873.583 58 8039 7932.161 59 8039 7932.161 PEG 0 0 60 7351 7253.752 61 10894 10750.16 62 6664 6575.344 63 7404 7305.937 PHIL 0 0 64 11159 11011.09 AUR 0 0 65 11370 11219.83 THIRD 0 0 66 11370 11219.83 HIN 0 0 67 13697 13515.98 68 12692 12524.46 69 12428 12263.54 BARN 0 0 70 0 0 71 0 17228.26 72 0 0 73 0 0 74 0 0 75 0 0 6EXT 0 0 76 0 0 6ILL 0 0 77 0 12010.87 COLCON 0 0 NETWORK 0 0 0 0 0 22375.1 22399.48 23100 26630.83 2B662.03 29558.4 25832.33 25860.48 26669.23 31321.7 31355.83 32336.44 25294.16 25321.72 26113.62 16952.47 16970.94 17501.68 0 0 0 16199.02 16216.67 16723.83 16199.02 16216.67 16723.83 miiM m\M mhii 26876.39 26905.67 27747.11 0 0 0 7103.891 7111.631 7334.038 18943.71 18964.35 19557.44 16468.11 16486.05 17001.63 0 0 0 21096.4 21119.39 21779.87 17544.46 17563.57 18112.85 0 0 0 9151.103 9161.074 9447.575 8180.238 8189.151 8445.256 8180.238 8189.151 8445.256 0 0 0 7480.613 7488.763 7722.965 11086.38 11098.45 11445.54 6780.987 67B8.375 7000.673 7534.43 7542.639 7778.526 0 0 0 11355.46 11367.83 11723.35 0 0 0 11570.73 11583.34 11945.59 0 0 0 11570.73 11583.34 11945.59 0 0 0 13938.7 13953.88 14390.27 12916.17 12930.24 13334.62 12647.08 12660.86 13056.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 17767.07 18322.64 18895.65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10721.92 11057.24 0 11986.3 12361.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12386.46 12148.92 13173.31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21235.07 28130 32366 27164.13 35994 41415 24511.77 32476 37367 29714.4B 39377 45307 24001.7 31799 36588 16095.61 21312 24522 0 0 0 15367.31 20365 23432 15367.31 20363 23432 m im 25487.1 33789 38877 0 0 0 6747.126 8931 10276 17968.67 23816 27402 15622.35 20703 23821 0 0 0 2000B.95 26522 30516 16642.49 22057 2537B 0 0 0 8673.232 11505 13237 7753.065 10284 11633 7753.065 10284 11633 0 0 0 7097.074 9405 10821 10514.54 13938 16036 6433.983 8525 9B09 7148.081 9472 10899 0 0 0 10762.48 14276 16426 0 0 0 10966.51 14547 16737 0 0 0 10966.51 14547 16737 0 0 0 13225.02 17523 20162 12255.88 16238 18683 12000.85 15900 18294 0 0 0 26578.85 0 0 19486.55 0 0 23574.42 0 0 11664.27 0 0 11403.01 0 0 12747.7 0 0 0 0 0 11910.15 0 0 0 0 0 13585.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 1437145 1653566 119 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO FORECASTED LINK VOLUMES- WITH PROJECT 1986-2005 LINK 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1995 2005 1 20965 26287 26839 26584 27142 24533 25705 28248 2 22695 2B474 29071 28796 29400 26574 25777 28326 3 24025 30156 30789 30497 31137 28144 34539 37977 4 29190 36687 37457 37102 37880 34239 37916 41666 S 28173 35401 36144 35801 36552 33038 34324 37719 6 24800 31136 31789 31488 32148 29058 35409 38911 7 27468 34310 35234 34900 35633 32207 30097 33074 8 21912 27484 28061 27795 28378 25650 17165 18863 9 14165 17688 18059 17888 18263 16507 16166 17765 AIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 7669 9474 9673 9581 9782 8842 10346 11369 11 4891 5961 6086 6029 6155 5564 8074 8873 12 10526 13086 13361 13234 13512 12213 6294 6917 13 7688 9498 9697 9605 9807 8864 9782 10749 14 9428 11699 11944 11831 12079 10918 13821 15188 15 9391 11651 11896 11783 12030 10874 10710 11769 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 7669 9474 9673 9581 9782 8842 15628 17174 17 4891 5961 6086 6029 6155 5564 11809 12977 IB S264 6432 6567 6505 6642 6003 8213 9026 19 7690 9500 9699 9607 9809 8866 10538 11581 20 9430 11701 11946 11833 12081 10920 14337 15755 21 9391 11651 11896 11783 12030 10874 13136 14436 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 8608 10885 11114 11008 11239 10159 19303 21212 23 8749 11063 11295 11188 11423 10325 16724 18378 RICH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 10026 12622 12887 12765 13033 117B0 11882 13058 25 5900 7405 7560 7489 7646 6911 6992 7684 26 8800 11072 11304 11197 11432 10333 10429 11461 27 11362 14311 14611 14473 14776 13356 13465 14796 28 8932 11238 11474 11365 11604 10488 10585 11632 29 7099 8921 9108 9022 9211 8326 8414 9246 SFEEB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 7265 9131 9323 9235 9428 8522 8610 9462 31 4412 5523 5639 5585 5703 5154 5229 5746 32 7355 9245 9439 9350 9546 8628 8717 9579 33 11375 14327 14628 14489 14793 13371 13480 14814 34 10573 13314 13594 13465 13747 12426 12531 13770 35 8499 10692 10916 10813 11039 9978 10073 11069 SFEWB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 160B2 20112 20534 20340 20766 18770 16157 17755 37 16082 20112 20534 20340 20766 18770 16253 17861 38 17764 22240 22706 22491 22963 20756 16157 17755 UNIV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 7583 9589 9790 9697 9901 8949 20493 22520 PARKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 6730 8510 8689 8606 8787 7942 13312 14629 41 15221 19247 19651 19465 19873 17963 22099 24284 GEIST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 16268 20348 20775 20578 21009 18990 9270 10186 43 20817 26099 26647 26394 26948 24357 9523 10465 12 0 44 18782 23526 24020 23792 24291 21956 14705 16159 45 22773 28573 29172 28B96 29502 26666 23813 26168 46 18391 23031 23515 23292 23780 21494 18083 19872 47 12326 15362 15685 15536 15862 14337 9941 10924 COU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 11778 14781 15091 14948 15262 13795 20820 22879 49 U77B 14781 15091 14948 15262 13795 19208 21108 SO 176B6 22232 22719 22504 22976 20767 22649 248B9 SI 19541 24598 25114 24876 25398 22956 25311 27814 ILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5165 6419 6554 6492 6628 5991 12612 13859 S3 13773 17305 17668 17500 17867 16150 15580 17121 34 11973 15029 15344 15199 15517 14026 10948 12031 CUSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 15338 192B4 19688 19502 19911 17997 23183 25476 54 12756 16018 16354 16199 16539 14949 14079 15471 SCUSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 6653 B413 8590 8508 8687 7852 20329 22339 58 5948 7521 7678 7606 7765 7019 22954 25224 59 5948 7521 7678 7606 7765 7019 21379 23493 PEE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 5439 6822 6965 6899 7043 6366 5271 5793 61 8061 10137 10349 10251 10466 9460 314 345 62 4930 6178 6308 6248 6379 5766 5250 5769 63 547B 6871 7015 6949 7095 6413 4450 4890 PHIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 8256 10440 10659 10558 10779 9743 2356 2589 AUR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 8413 10638 10861 1075B 10984 9928 10294 11312 THIRD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 8413 10638 10861 10758 10984 9928 13842 15211 HIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 10134 12703 12970 12847 13116 11855 14611 16056 68 9391 11763 12010 11896 12146 10978 13031 14320 69 9195 11516 11757 11646 11890 10747 13971 15352 BARN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 24776 26922 29584 71 0 16717 1706B 17426 17792 18165 19738 21690 72 0 0 0 0 0 21976 23879 26240 73 0 0 0 0 0 10873 11815 12983 74 0 0 0 10197 10411 10630 11550 12692 75 0 0 0 11400 11639 11883 12912 14189 6EIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 11102.46 12064 13257 6ILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 11654.78 11899.3 12148.92 12403.76 12663.97 13760 15121 COLCON 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NETWORK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 121 SE1ST EVALUATION TINE OF DAT FACTOR HOURS IN EACH TINE OF DAY LINK AADT TODFAfl TODFND TODFFH TODFO HRSAH HRSHD HRSPH HRSO 1 25796 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 2 27531 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 3 28865 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 4 34046 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 S 33026 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 B 2 12 6 29643 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 7 32319 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 8 26746 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 9 18975 .03 .061 .079 .0245 2 8 2 12 AIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 12459 .036 .055 .079 .0275 2 8 2 12 11 9673 .036 .055 .079 .0275 2 8 2 12 12 15325 .036 .055 .079 .0275 2 8 2 12 1J mn M .§§§ :W :§§7§ * e \ 1? 14 14224 .036 .055 .079 .0275 2 8 1 12 15 14186 .036 .055 .079 .0275 2 8 I 12 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 1 ) 0 9 0 16 12459 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; 2 8 2 12 17 9673 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; 2 8 2 12 18 10046 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; 2 8 2 12 19 12480 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; 2 8 2 12 20 14226 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; I 8 ; 2 12 21 14186 .036 .055 .079 .0275 : I 8 ; I 12 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 ( > 0 ( ) 0 22 8635 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; i 8 ; I 12 23 8776 .036 .055 .079 .0275 ; ! 8 ; I 12 RICH 0 0 0 0 0 ( ) 0 ( ) 0 24 11249 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 ; ! B ; ! 12 25 7110 .03 .061 .0789 . 0 2 4 5 ; ' 8 ; [ 12 26 10019 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 2 ' B ; ! 12 27 12588 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 ; ' B ; ! 12 28 10151 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 ; ' 8 ; > 12 29 8313 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 5 > B ; 12 SFEEB 0 0 0 0 0 ( 0 c 0 30 8479 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 2 8 : 12 31 5617 .03 .061 .0789 . 0 2 4 5 2 8 2 12 32 8570 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 2 8 2 12 33 12601 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 2 B 2 12 34 11798 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 2 8 2 12 35 9717 .03 .061 .0789 .0245 2 8 2 12 SFEHB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 20898 .034 .0605 .0823 .0236 2 8 2 12 37 20898 .034 .0605 .0823 .0236 2 8 2 12 38 22586 .034 .0605 .0823 .0236 2 8 2 12 UNIV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 7606 .036 .0545 .079 .0275 2 8 2 12 PARKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 6751 .0342 .0605 .0823 .0236 2 B 2 12 41 15268 .0342 .0605 .0823 .0236 2 8 2 12 GEIST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 21085 .0268 .0617 .0841 .0237 2 8 2 12 43 25647 .0268 .0617 .0841 .0237 2 8 2 12 44 23606 .0268 .0617 .0841 .0237 2 8 2 12 122 31 21984 .0238 ILL 0 0 32 7564 .0238 33 16199 .0238 34 14393 .0238 CUSH 0 0 55 17769 .0238 56 15178 .0238 SCUSH 0 0 37 6674 .0342 38 5966 .0342 59 5966 .0342 PEG 0 0 60 6647 .0342 61 9277 .0342 62 6137 .0342 63 6686 .0342 PHIL 0 0 64 82B1 .0268 AUR 0 0 65 8438 .0268 THIRD 0 0 66 8438 .0268 HIN 0 0 67 12549 .0238 68 11803 .0238 69 11607 .0238 BARN 0 0 70 0 .0268 71 0 .0268 72 0 .0268 73 0 .0268 74 0 .0268 75 0 .0268 6EIT 0 0 76 0 .0268 6ILL 0 0 77 0 .0268 C0LC0N 0 0 NETWORK 0 0 .0705 .0798 .0191 0 0 0 .0705 .0798 .0191 .0705 .0798 .0191 .0705 .0798 .0191 0 0 0 .0705 .0798 .0191 .0705 .0798 .0191 0 0 0 .0669 .0819 .0194 .0669 .0819 .0194 .0669 .0819 .0194 0 0 0 .0669 .0819 .0194 .0669 .0819 .0194 .0669 .0819 .0194 .0669 .0819 .0194 0 0 0 .0617 .0841 .0237 0 0 0 .0617 .0841 .0237 0 0 0 .0617 .0841 .0237 0 0 0 .0705 .0798 .0191 .0705 .0798 .0191 .0705 .0798 .0191 0 0 0 .0617 .0841 .0237 .0617 .0841 .0237 .0617 .0841 .0237 .0617 .0841 .0237 .0617 .0841 .0237 .0617 .0841 .0237 0 0 0 .0617 .0841 .0237 0 0 0 .0617 .0841 .0237 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 8 2 12 . 0 0 0 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 0 0 0 B 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 0 0 0 8 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 123 TOTAL VOLUME ON LINK TVDLAR TVOLHD TVOLPM TVOLO 1367 11119 3600 6699 1371 11154 3611 6720 1839 14957 4843 9011 2016 16399 5310 9880 1626 14652 4809 8948 1883 15318 4959 9228 1602 13026 4216 7848 914 7432 2406 4478 859 6990 2263 4211 0 0 0 0 661 4037 1450 3028 515 3146 1130 2360 402 2454 681 1840 625 3817 1371 2863 882 5390 1936 4043 683 4174 1499 3130 0 0 0 0 995 6082 2164 4562 753 4604 1653 3453 525 3209 1152 2407 673 4111 1476 3083 915 5589 2007 4192 639 5128 1841 3846 0 0 0 0 1232 7529 2704 5647 1067 6523 2342 4892 0 0 0 0 632 5141 1662 3097 372 3024 978 1822 555 4513 1459 2719 716 5827 1884 3511 563 4583 1482 2761 448 3640 1177 2193 0 0 0 0 458 3722 1203 2242 279 2268 733 1366 463 3768 1219 2270 716 5827 1884 3511 666 5420 1753 3265 536 4362 1410 2628 0 0 0 0 974 6933 2358 4057 981 6979 2373 4084 974 6933 2358 4057 0 0 0 0 1308 7918 2869 5993 0 0 0 0 807 5710 1942 3341 1340 9482 3225 5548 0 0 0 0 441 4059 1383 2338 452 4165 1419 2400 699 6435 2193 3708 VOLUME TO CAPACITY RATIO VCRAH VCRHD VCRPH 3333 .2051 .4170 .5401 3333 .2057 .4183 .5417 3333 .2759 .5609 .7265 3333 .3025 .6150 .7965 3333 .273? .5570 .7214 3333 .2825 .5745 .7440 2909 .2753 .5597 .7249 2909 .1571 .3194 .4136 2909 .1477 .3004 .3890 0 0 0 0 3500 .0944 .1442 .2071 1500 .1716 .2622 .3766 1500 .1338 .2045 .2937 1500 .2082 .3181 .4569 1500 .2940 .4492 .6452 1500 .2277 .3478 .4996 0 0 0 0 3500 .1422 .2172 .3120 1500 .2511 .3836 .5510 1500 .1750 .2674 .3841 1500 .2242 .3426 .4921 1500 .304? .4658 .6690 1500 .2797 .4273 .6138 0 0 0 0 2400 .2567 .3922 .5633 2100 .2541 .3883 .5577 0 0 0 0 2000 .1580 .3213 .4156 1000 .185? .3780 .4889 1000 .2774 .5641 .7296 1000 .3582 .7264 .9421 2000 .140? .2864 .3705 2000 .111? .2275 .2943 0 0 0 0 1000 .2288 .4652 .6017 1000 . 1394 .2835 .3667 1000 .2317 .4710 .6093 1000 .3582 .7284 .9421 1000 .3332 .6775 .8763 1050 .2554 .5192 .6716 0 0 0 0 2667 .1826 .3249 .4420 '2667 .1838 .3271 .4450 2667 .1826 .3249 .4420 0 0 0 0 1667 .3922 .5938 .8607 0 0 0 0 2923 .1380 .2442 ".3322 2909 .2303 .4074 .5543 0 0 0 0 2667 .0826 .1902 .2593 3091 .0732 .1684 .2296 2667 .1310 .3016 .4111 SPEED IN HPH SPDAH SPDfID SPDPH .1675 28.22 27.40 27.00 .1680 28.22 27.40 27.00 .2253 28.01 26.64 25.40 .2470 27.81 26.22 25.00 .2237 31.01 29.63 28.40 .2307 31.01 29.63 28.40 .2248 31.01 29.63 28.40 .1263 28.43 27.61 27.40 .1206 28.64 27.81 27.60 0 0 0 0 .0721 43.75 43.07 41.75 .1311 42.40 41.10 39.83 .1022 43.07 41.75 41.10 .1590 35.64 35.22 34.30 .2246 35.53 34.60 33.60 .1739 35.84 35.22 34.30 0 0 0 0 .1086 43.07 41.75 40.46 .1918 41.10 39.83 37.46 .1337 42.40 41.10 39.83 .1713 35.84 35.22 34.30 .2329 35.22 34.30 33.40 .2137 35.53 34.60 33.60 0 0 0 0 .1961 41.10 39.83 37.46 .1941 41.10 39.83 37.46 0 0 0 0 .1290 42.40 40.46 39.21 .1518 42.40 39.83 38.60 .2266 41.10 37.46 35.60 .2925 39.83 35.60 33.21 .1150 43.07 41.10 39.83 .0914 43.07 41.75 41.10 0 0 0 0 .1869 41.75 38.60 36.83 .1139 43.07 41.10 39.83 .1892 41.75 38.60 36.83 .2925 39.83 35.60 33.21 .2721 40.46 36.21 33.83 .2085 41.10 38.00 36.21 0 0 0 0 .1268 31.43 30.81 30.40 .1276 31.43 30.81 30.40 .1268 31.43 30.81 30.40 0 0 0 0 .2996 44.91 43.45 39.83 0 0 0 0 .0953 31.64 31.22 30.81 .1589 31.22 30.40 29.63 0 0 0 0 .0731 23.87 23.44 23.02 .0647 23.87 23.44 23.23 .1159 31.64 30.81 30.40 124 1069 12662 3583 0 0 0 S32 6304 1784 65B 7796 2206 462 5471 1548 0 0 0 978 11587 3279 594 7044 1993 0 0 0 1232 9643 2951 1392 10893 3334 1296 10141 3104 0 0 0 320 2500 765 20 153 47 318 2487 761 271 2117 648 0 0 0 112 1035 353 0 0 0 489 4506 1535 0 0 0 658 6059 2065 0 0 0 617 7313 2069 550 6519 1845 590 6990 1978 0 0 0 1279 11776 4013 938 8635 2942 1134 10447 3560 562 5176 1764 549 5059 1724 613 5647 1924 0 0 0 574 5282 1800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3146 2833 .1886 0 0 0 2562 2167 .1228 3168 2250 .1462 2223 1950 .1184 0 0 0 4709 1455 .3361 2862 1455 .2043 0 0 0 4195 1167 .5280 4738 1417 .4912 4411 1385 .4679 0 0 0 1087 1333 .1199 67 1083 .0090 1082 1545 .1029 921 1545 .0876 0 0 0 596 1417 .0397 0 0 0 2596 1385 .1766 0 0 0 3491 1385 .2375 0 0 0 2972 - 3400 .0908 2649 2550 .1079 2841 1700 .1735 0 0 0 6785 4250 .1504 4975 4250 .1103 6019 2545 .2229 2982 2833 .0992 2915 2833 .0969 3254 2833 .1082 0 0 0 3043 2833 .1012 0 0 0 0 2833 .0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 .5587 .6324 .1514 0 0 0 .3637 .4116 .0985 .4331 .4903 .1173 .3507 .3970 .0950 0 0 0 .9955 1.1268 .2697 .6051 .6850 .1639 0 0 0 1.0329 1.2645 .2995 .9610 1.1764 .2787 .9152 1.1204 .2654 0 0 0 .2344 .2870 .0680 .0177 .0216 .0051 .2012 .2464 .0584 .1713 .2097 .0497 0 0 0 .0913 .1245 .0351 0 0 0 .4067 .5543 .1562 0 0 0 .5468 .7453 .2100 0 0 0 .2688 .3043 .0728 .3196 .3617 .0866 .5140 .5818 .1392 0 0 0 .3464 .4721 .1330 .2540 .3462 .0976 .5131 .6994 .1971 .2284 .3113 .0877 .2232 .3042 .0857 .2492 .3396 .0957 0 0 0 .2331 .3177 .0895 0 0 0 .0000 .0000 .0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.43 26.64 26.22 0 0 0 21.66 20.61 20.40 21.66 20.40 20.20 21.66 20.61 20.61 0 0 0 20.81 12.60 12.00 21.23 18.20 17.07 0 0 0 30.00 15.00 8.00 30.20 17.60 12.00 30.20 20.65 12.00 0 0 0 31.64 31.22 31.01 32.00 32.00 32.00 28.64 28.22 28.22 28.85 28.43 28.22 0 0 0 32.00 31.85 31.64 0 0 0 28.43 27.40 26.64 0 0 0 28.22 27.00 25.40 0 0 0 21.87 21.02 20.81 21.66 20.81 20.61 21.44 20.00 19.42 0 0 0 28.43 27.81 27.20 31.64 31.01 30. Bl 31.22 30.00 28.81 31.85 31.22 30.81 23. B7 23.23 22.81 23.65 23.23 22.81 0 0 0 28.64 28.22 27.81 0 0 0 29.00 29.00 29.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 125 TRAVEL TINE IN MINUTES ITANCE TI MEAN TIHEND TIHEPH TIKEO .17 .3614 .3722 .3778 .3588 .14 .2976 .3066 .3111 .2954 .25 .5354 .5631 .5906 .5315 .38 .8199 .8696 .9120 .8079 .31 .5997 .6276 .6549 .5958 .9 1.7412 1.8222 1.9014 1.7297 .28 .5417 .5669 .5915 .5381 .78 1.6461 1.6829 1.7079 1.6340 .76 1.5921 1.6398 1.6519 1.5921 0 0 0 0 0 .62 .8502 .8636 .8911 .8502 .68 .9622 .9928 1.0244 .9472 .28 .3900 .4024 .4088 .3900 .21 .3516 .3578 .3673 .3485 .5 .8444 .8670 .8928 .8370 .35 .5859 .5963 .6122 .5808 0 0 0 0 0 .76 1.0586 1.0923 1.1271 1.0586 .66 .9636 .9943 1.0571 .9339 .28 .3962 .4088 .4218 .3900 .21 .3516 .3578 .3673 .3485 .52 .8860 .9096 .9341 .8705 .35 .5911 .6069 .6249 .5859 0 0 0 0 0 .97 1.4162 1.4613 1.5536 1.3725 1.04 1.5184 1.5667 1.6657 1.4716 0 0 0 0 0 .5 .7075 .7415 .7651 .6965 .83 1.1744 1.2504 1.2902 1.1744 1.13 1.6498 1.8098 1.9045 1.6241 .99 1.4914 1.6685 1.7886 1.4454 1.11 1.5462 1.6206 1.6722 1.5462 .5 .6965 .7186 .7300 .6857 0 0 0 0 0 .48 .6899 .7461 .7819 .6792 .83 1.1562 1.2118 1.2504 1.1562 1.13 1.6241 1.7565 1.840B 1.5989 .99 1.4914 1.6685 1.7886 1.4454 1.11 1.6462 1.8393 1.9684 1.6206 .33 .4818 .5211 .5468 .4743 0 0 0 0 ,o .21 .4009 .4090 .4145 .3983 .64 1.2218 1.2464 1.2631 1.2137 .44 .8400 .8569 .8684 .8344 0 0 0 0 0 .43 .5745 .5937 .6478 .5668 0 0 0 0 0 1.04 1.9723 1.9987 2.0254 1.9593 .51 .9801 1.0065 1.0326 .9736 0 0 0 0 0 .88 2.2123 2.2527 2.2938 2.2123 .17 2.1871 2.2271 2.2473 2.1871 1.1 2.0861 2.1423 2.1710 2.0861 I .09 .1899 .2027 .2060 .1899 0 0 0 0 0 .06 .2216 .2329 .2353 .2194 .26 .7203 .7646 .7723 .7203 .12 .3325 .3494 .3494 .3292 0 0 0 0 0 .61 1.7586 2.9048 3.0500 1.7412 .41 1.1587 1.3313 1.4414 1.1472 0 0 0 0 0 .11 1,7200 3. MOO M S O O I,fti3§ .15 1.2914 i.tisf urn l A 1.9868 2.9055 5.0000 1.9346 ,36 .691? g .mi .41 .7687 .7687 .76B7 .7687 .6 1.2569 1.2756 1.2756 1.2476 .16 .3327 .3377 .3402 .3310 0 0 0 0 0 .66 1.2375 1.2434 1.2517 1.2375 0 0 0 0 0 .17 .3588 .3722 .3829 .3588 0 0 0 0 0 .57 1.2118 1.2667 1.3465 1.2118 0 0 0 0 0 .15 .4115 .4282 .4324 .4115 .23 .6372 .6631 .6697 .6309 .17 .4757 .5100 .5253 .4710 0 0 0 0 0 1.13 2.3847 2.4381 2.4926 2.3671 .81 1.5361 1.5671 1.5775 1.5260 .45 .8648 .9000 .9373 .8591 1.26 2.3737 2.4215 2.4539 2.3737 .75 1.8655 1.9373 1.9727 1.6855 . .75 1.9026 1.9373 1.9727 1.8855 0 0 0 0 0 .9 1.8853 1.9134 1.9418 1.8715 0 0 0 0 0 .9 1.8621 1.8621 1.8621 1.8621 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 127 SPEED-FLOW LOOKUP TABLES 1/114 1/2 1/3 2,3,4/1 2,3,4/2 2,3,4/3 2,3,4/4 0 37.00 44.00 47.00 22.00 29.00 32.00 24.00 .05 36.80 43.75 46.77 21.87 28.85 31.85 23.87 .1 36.48 43.07 46.46 21.66 28.64 31.64 23.65 .15 36.16 42.40 46.14 21.44 28.43 31.43 23.44 .2 35.84 41.75 45.83 21.23 28.22 31.22 23.23 .25 35.53 41.10 45.52 21.02 28.01 31.01 23.02 .3 35.22 40.46 45.21 20.81 27.81 30.81 22.81 .35 34.91 39.83 44.91 20.61 27.60 30.60 22.61 .4 34.60 39.21 44.60 20.40 27.40 30.40 22.40 .45 34.30 38.60 44.30 20.20 27.20 30.20 22.20 .5 34.00 38.00 44.00 20.00 27.00 30.00 22.00 .55 33.81 37.46 43.45 19.42 26.64 29.63 21.42 .6 33.60 36.83 42.83 18.20 26.22 29.22 20.51 .63 33.40 36.21 42.21 17.07 25.81 28.81 19.64 .7 33.20 35.60 41.60 16.00 25.40 28.40 18.80 .75 33.00 35.00 41.00 15.00 25.00 28.00 18.00 .8 32.63 34.47 40.46 14.59 24.75 28.43 17.49 .85 32.22 33.83 39.83 13.89 21.84 24.23 16.24 .9 31.81 33.21 39.21 13.23 19.27 20.65 15.08 .95 31.40 32.60 38.60 12.60 17.00 17.60 14.00 1 31.00 32.00 38.00 12.00 15.00 15.00 13.00 128 APPENDIX B 129 LINK VOLUMES TVOLAR TVOLHO TVOLPH TVOLO TRUCKAH TRUCKHD TRUCKPN TRUCKO AUTO API AUTOHO 1 39159 2350 19110 6187 11513 454 3393 577 118 1B?5 15717 2 41793 2S0B 20395 6603 12287 485 3621 616 126 2023 16773 3 43819 2629 21383 6923 12883 508 3797 646 132 2121 17586 4 51683 3101 25221 8166 15195 600 4478 761 156 2501 20743 5 50134 3008 24465 7921 14739 582 4344 739 151 2426 20121 6 44998 2700 21959 7110 13229 322 3899 663 136 2178 18060 7 49062 2944 23942 7752 14424 369 4251 723 148 2375 19691 8 40601 2436 19813 6415 11937 471 3518 598 122 1965 16295 ? 28804 1728 14056 4551 8468 334 2496 424 87 1394 11561 AIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 18914 1362 8322 2988 6242 219 1639 27? 57 1142 6683 11 14684 1057 6461 2320 4846 170 1272 216 44 887 5188 12 23263 1675 10236 3676 7677 270 2016 343 70 1405 8220 13 18942 1364 8335 2993 6251 220 1641 27? 57 1144 6693 14 21593 1555 9501 3412 7126 230 1871 318 65 1304 7630 IS 21535 1551 9476 3403 7107 250 1866 317 65 1301 7609 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 16914 1362 8322 29B8 6242 219 1639 27? 57 1142 6683 17 14684 1057 6461 2320 4846 170 1272 216 44 887 5188 18 15251 1098 6710 2410 5033 177 1322 225 46 921 5389 19 18945 1364 8336 2993 6252 220 1642 27? 57 1144 6694 20 21595 1555 9502 3412 7126 251 1871 318 65 1304 7631 21 21535 1551 9476 3403 7107 250 1866 317 65 1301 7609 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 13108 944 5767 2071 4326 152 1136 1?3 40 792 4632 23 13322 959 5862 2105 4396 155 1154 1?6 40 805 4707 RICH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 17076 1025 8333 2695 5020 198 1480 252 52 826 6853 25 10793 648 5267 1703 3173 125 935 15? 33 522 4332 26 15209 913 7422 2400 4471 176 1318 224 46 736 6104 27 19109 1147 9325 3015 5618 222 1656 282 58 925 7669 28 15409 925 7520 2432 4530 179 1335 227 46 746 6184 29 12619 757 6158 1991 3710 146 1093 186 38 611 5065 SFEEB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 12872 772 6282 2031 37B4 149 1115 190 3? 623 5166 31 8527 512 4161 1346 2507 99 739 126 26 413 3422 32 13009 781 6348 2053 3825 151 1127 1?2 3? 630 5221 33 19129 1148 9335 3019 5624 222 165B 282 58 926 7677 34 17909 1075 8740 2826 5265 208 1552 264 54 867 71BB 35 14751 BB5 7198 2328 4337 171 1278 217 44 714 5920 SFENB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 31724 2157 15354 5222 8984 368 2749 467 ?6 1789 12605 37 31724 2157 15354 5222 8984 368 2749 467 ?6 1789 12605 38 34286 2331 16594 5643 9710 398 2971 505 103 1934 13623 UNIV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 11547 831 5034 1824 3810 134 1001 170 35 697 4034 PARKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 1024B 701 4960 16B7 2902 119 888 151 31 582 4072 41 23177 1585 11218 3815 6564 269 2008 341 70 1316 9209 6EIST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 32007 1716 15799 5384 9103 371 2773 472 ?7 1344 13025 43 3B933 2087 19217 6549 11073 452 3374 574 117 1635 15B44 130 44 35835 1921 17688 6027 10191 416 3105 528 108 1505 14583 45 41912 2246 20688 7050 11920 486 3632 617 126 1760 17056 46 35239 18B9 17394 5927 10022 409 3034 519 106 1480 14340 47 26004 1394 12836 4374 7396 302 2253 383 78 1092 105B2 COLL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 21552 1026 12155 3440 4940 250 1868 318 65 776 102BB 49 21552 1026 12155 3440 4940 250 1868 318 65 776 10288 50 30548 1454 17229 4876 7002 354 2647 450 92 1100 14582 51 33373 1589 18822 5326 7649 387 2892 492 101 1201 15930 ILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 11483 347 6476 1833 2632 133 995 169 35 413 5481 53 24590 1171 13869 3925 3636 285 2131 362 74 883 11738 54 21850 1040 12323 3487 5008 253 1B93 322 66 787 10430 CUSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 26974 1284 15213 4305 6182 313 2337 397 81 971 12876 56 23041 1097 12995 3677 5281 267 1997 339 69 829 10999 SCUSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 10131 693 5422 1659 2359 118 878 149 31 575 4544 58 9056 619 4847 1483 2108 105 785 133 27 514 4062 59 9056 619 4847 1483 2108 105 785 133 27 514 4062 PE6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 10091 690 5401 1653 2349 117 874 149 30 573 4526 61 14083 963 7537 2307 3278 163 1220 207 42 800 6317 62 9316 637 4986 1526 2169 108 807 137 28 529 4179 63 10150 694 5432 1663 2363 118 8B0 150 31 577 4553 PHIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 12572 674 6205 2115 3575 146 1089 185 38 528 5116 AUR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 12810 687 6323 2155 3643 149 1110 189 39 538 5213 THIRD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 12810 687 6323 2155 3643 149 1110 189 39 538 5213 KIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 19049 907 10744 3040 4366 221 1651 281 57 686 9093 68 17917 853 10105 2860 4107 208 1553 264 54 645 8553 69 17619 839 9937 2812 4038 204 1527 260 53 634 8411 BARN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6EIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLCON 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NETWORK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 131 AUTO AUTO AUTO AUTO AUTO AUTO AUTO VCRAH VCRHD VCRPH VCRO FUEIAH FUElflD FUELPH FUELO 01 HER API OTHERHD OTHLRPH 1 .3525 .7167 .9282 .2878 21.27 182.92 74.60 127.07 19.82 181.83 82.28 2 .3762 .7649 .9906 .3072 18.69 161.92 70. OB 112.04 17.42 162.60 77.95 3 .3944 .802 1.0386 .3221 35.00 304.55 140.80 209.77 32.61 307.74 155.27 4 .4652 .9459 1.225 .3799 63.15 616.54 252.42 377.25 59.61 679.97 278.37 5 .4513 .9175 1.1883 .3685 47.83 471.00 199.75 286.04 46.80 54B.31 229.58 6 .405 .8235 1.0666 .3308 124.31 1059.67 520.52 743.37 120.88 10BB.57 598.24 7 .506 1.0288 1.3324 .4132 42.39 494.62 176.56 253.51 41.72 568.48 202.93 8 .4187 .8514 1.1026 .3419 101.50 933.75 407.03 606.41 95.21 999.51 448.87 9 .2971 .604 .7822 .2426 69.51 593.08 216.25 416.57 63.88 576.56 217.17 AIR 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .00 .00 .00 10 .1945 .2972 .4269 .I486 39.78 235.17 96.88 214.29 52.32 319.05 136.94 11 .3524 .5384 .7733 .2692 34.59 205.68 85.91 185.30 48.26 297.77 130.99 12 .5583 .853 1.2252 .4265 23.05 139.99 57.99 122.82 33.71 217.17 92.14 13 .4546 .6946 .9976 .3473 14.54 85.91 35.68 77.94 15.59 94.18 40.89 14 .5182 .7917 1.1372 .3959 39.59 234.24 97.33 212.21 42.77 259.23 112.44 15 .5168 .7896 1.1342 .3948 27.64 163.53 67.95 148.15 29.86 180.9B 78.50 STNE 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .00 .00 .00 16 .1945 .2972 .4269 .I486 48.77 288.27 118.76 262.67 64.14 391.09 167.86 17 .3524 .5384 .7733 .2692 33.57 199.63 83.38 179.85 46.84 2B9.01 127.14 18 .366 .5592 .8032 .2796 14.79 88.41 36.95 79.25 20.64 129.29 56.80 19 .4547 .6946 .9978 .3473 14.54 85.92 35.68 77.95 15.59 94.19 40.89 20 .5183 .7918 1.1373 .3959 41.18 243.64 101.23 220.72 44.48 269.63 116.95 21 .5168 .7896 1.1342 .3948 27.64 163.53 67.95 148.15 29.86 180.98 78.50 STUB 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .00 .00 .00 22 .1966 .3004 .4315 .1502 43.14 256.32 105.04 233.53 56.73 352.79 148.47 23 .2284 .3489 .5012 .1745 47.25 279.32 115.72 254.48 63.14 384.44 167.53 RICH 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 24 .2561 .5208 .6736 .2092 23.45 199.77 72.45 140.27 31.82 289.21 108.32 25 .3238 .6584 .8516 .2644 24.74 213.24 77.95 147.94 34.05 318.82 120.93 26 .4563 .9277 1.2 .3726 48.23 422.50 152.79 286.84 69.01 661.09 242.77 27 .5733 1.1656 1.5077 .4682 53.65 471.81 168.18 319.17 78.45 749.68 267.24 28 .2311 .47 .6079 .1888 46.74 398.01 144.25 279.56 62.46 569.52 213.36 29 .1893 .3849 .4978 .1546 17.15 145.25 52.34 103.13 22.56 202.66 74.89 SFEEB 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 30 .3862 .7852 1.0156 .3154 17.15 148.92 54.93 102.58 23.93 227.07 87.28 31 .2558 .5201 .6728 .2069 19.44 165.60 60.06 116.28 26.38 239.73 89.79 32 .3903 .7935 1.0264 .3187 40.81 354.31 130.69 244.05 56.94 540.24 207.66 33 .5739 1.1669 1.5093 .4687 53.70 472.30 168.36 319.50 78.54 750.46 267.52 34 .5373 1.0924 1.413 .4388 56.09 495.77 176.73 333.57 81.20 787.76 280.81 35 .4215 .857 1.1084 .3442 13.59 118.83 43.28 80.81 19.20 184.34 68.76 SFEKB 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .00 .00 .00 36 .4044 .7196 .9789 .2807 24.88 181.22 83.47 122.45 23.34 180.15 92.85 37 .4044 .7196 .9789 .2807 75.63 552.30 254.39 373.17 71.13 549.03 282.96 38 .4371 .7778 1.056 .3034 56.34 413.31 202.83 278.15 52.85 415.06 223.67 UNIV 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .00 .00 .00 39 .2494 .3775 .5472 .1905 16.43 95.66 39.48 86.78 21.79 129.65 54.61 PARKS 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 40 .1199 .2121 .2885 .0827 37.79 265.73 100.49 185.90 35.32 251.63 95.87 41 .2725 .482 .6557 .188 42.24 298.66 114.86 207.26 40.30 292.19 116.85 6EIST 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 132 42 .3216 . 7405 1.0093 .2844 85.10 908.05 422.31 567.73 67.07 EC 1.55 43 .3376 . 7771 1.0593 .2985 102.34 1117.35 507.85 662.72 80.65 1000.30 44 .3601 .829 1.13 .3184 104.71 1045.80 542.70 699.67 101.19 1074.32 45 .4212 .9696 1.3216 .3724 46.89 5B7.73 242.36 313.29 45.59 66G.50 46 .3541 .8152 1.1112 .3131 56.67 576.15 261.40 378.46 52.80 582.17 47 .2613 .6016 .82 .2311 6.45 64.29 24.88 43.07 5.93 62.50 COLL 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 48 .1611 .5363 .6071 .1453 13.15 178.26 54.80 82.37 11.91 169.33 49 .1611 .5363 .6071 .1453 7.08 95.99 29.31 44.35 6.41 91.18 50 .2566 .7602 .8605 .206 7.94 110.60 35.76 49.70 7.29 111.07 SI ,2804 .6309 .94 .223 7.09 99.31 34.03 44.43 6.32 100.33 u 8 8 8 •M •M -.88 -.88 -.88 -.88 52 .1261 .3736 .4228 .1012 2.44 33.15 10.11 15.33 1.71 24.24 53 .2601 .7705 .8721 .2087 17.23 273.79 66.93 107.71 12.39 227.59 54 .2667 .79 .8942 .214 7.06 112.28 35.65 44.17 5.08 93.34 CUSH 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 55 .4412 1.307 1.4794 .3541 45.00 806.53 244.77 281.32 33.16 666.85 56 .3769 1.1164 1.2637 .3025 25.71 463.06 140.53 160.72 18.80 382.87 SCUSH 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 57 .2969 .5808 .711 .1684 31.13 250.44 84.71 125.29 29.84 251.59 5B .2186 .4276 .5234 .124 20.98 167.45 55.95 84.43 19.95 164.00 59 .2236 .4374 .5355 .1269 32.26 257.62 86.08 129.89 30.70 252.31 PEG 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 60 .2589 .5064 .62 .1469 12.98 103.89 34.90 52.10 12.44 103.15 61 .4447 .8699 1.065 .2523 20. BO 181.14 77.21 83.47 20.37 203.66 62 .2062 .4034 .4938 .117 20.76 166.04 55.35 83.48 18.95 155.73 63 .2247 .4395 .5381 .1275 6.03 48.24 16.13 24.25 5.50 45.25 PHIL 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 64 .2378 .5474 .7461 .2103 21.87 215.29 83.05 146.50 20.72 211.87 AUR 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 65 .2479 .5707 .7778 .2192 5.98 59.41 23.04 40.07 5.46 57.05 THIRD 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 66 .2479 .5707 .7778 .2192 20.05 199.19 77.26 134.36 18.30 191.29 niN 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 67 .1333 .395 .4471 .107 7.59 103.11 31.45 47.67 5.31 75.39 66 .1672 .4954 .5607 .1342 11.00 150.19 46.51 68.75 7.77 111.48 69 .2467 .7307 .8271 .198 8.03 123.63 39.57 50.21 5.73 101.70 BARN 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 70 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 . .00 .00 .00 71 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 72 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 73 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 74 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 75 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 6EIT 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 76 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 GILL 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 77 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 CDLCON 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NETWORK 0 0 0 0 .00 .00 133 TRUCK TOTAL TOTAL TVARAK TVARND TVARPN TVARO AUTO TRUCK 1 18.17 137.00 23.87 4.71 806.SB 183.76 2 15.97 120.56 21.14 4.15 724.40 161.83 3 29.91 227.57 39.88 7.77 1379.8B 305.13 4 53.76 414.21 71.49 13.94 2678.84 553.40 S 43.00 330.63 56.58 11.11 2105.73 441.31 6 111.68 856.03 147.43 28.85 4969.39 1143.99 7 38.13 294.14 50.01 9.85 2026.72 392.12 e 86.57 662.89 115.28 22.45 4153.53 887.20 9 59.61 449.34 76.69 15.4B 2533.16 601.13 AIR .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 10 40.19 302.55 52.12 10.41 1371.56 405.28 11 34.79 263.31 45.75 8.97 1239.90 352.82 12 23.10 176.67 30.32 5.93 860.47 236.02 13 11.43 85.94 14.75 2.96 446.26 115.08 14 31.08 233.96 40.08 8.04 1221.72 313.16 15 21.70 163.34 27.98 5.61 852.94 218.63 STNB .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 16 49.27 370.87 63.89 12.76 1681.26 496.79 17 33.77 255.57 44.40 8.70 1203.43 342.44 18 14.88 113.10 19.63 3.83 533.64 151.44 19 11.44 85.95 14.75 2.96 446.32 115.09 20 32.33 243.34 41.69 8.37 1270.73 325.72 21 21.70 163.34 27.98 5.61 852.94 218.63 STUB .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 22 43.58 329.31 56.51 11.33 1503.15 440.73 23 47.67 358.85 62.12 12.35 1646.55 480.99 RICH .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 24 29.49 225.16 38.78 7.64 1052.74 301.07 25 31.06 239.33 41.31 8.04 1138.38 319.74 26 60.41 467.62 80.01 15.57 2283.44 623.61 27 67.08 518.01 88.07 17.29 2564.88 690.44 28 58.85 449.10 77.35 15.24 2081.57 600.55 29 21.63 164.24 28.17 5.62 753.60 219.65 SFEEB .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 30 21.53 166.50 28.76 5.57 803.03 222.37 31 24.44 186.64 32.15 6.33 872.65 249.56 32 51.23 396.15 68.43 13.25 1910.59 529.06 33 67.15 518.55 88.16 17.31 2567.57 691.17 34 70.18 544.33 92.54 18.09 2683.43 725.14 35 17.04 132.03 22.66 4.39 640.04 176.12 SFENB .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 36 18.21 137.10 24.07 4.72 820.90 184.10 37 55.50 417.82 73.35 14.37 2501.80 561.05 38 41.24 310.85 54.92 10.69 1899.64 417.70 UNIV .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 39 16.65 125.33 21.48 4.32 563.26 167.77 PARKS .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 40 28.83 216.73 36.97 7.47 1145.44 290.00 41 32.28 244.28 42.07 8.34 1307.44 326.97 GEIST .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 134 42 73.44 554.62 95.35 19.07 36B0.74 742.48 43 88.31 668.21 114.67 22.93 44B8.05 894.12 44 108.35 833.20 143.49 28.06 4864.01 1113.13 45 48.54 375.70 64.08 12.58 2505.66 500.90 46 55.80 424.60 74.40 14.49 2588.22 569.29 47 6.37 48.04 8.27 1.65 271.55 64.33 COLL .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 48 15.22 114.72 19.53 3.95 637.15 153.45 49 8.20 61.77 10.53 2.13 343.08 82.63 50 9.15 69.24 11.96 2.36 406.01 92.73 51 8.18 62.40 10.77 2.12 369.82 83.47 ILL .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 52 2.35 17.72 3.02 .61 105.15 23.71 53 16.46 125.00 21.32 4.27 875.07 167.06 54 6.75 51.26 8.74 1.75 35B.86 68.51 CUSH .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 55 42.57 324.36 55.15 11.05 2485.70 433.13 56 24.40 186.23 31.66 6.33 1424.47 248.63 SCUSH .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 57 23.73 178.61 30.48 6.15 979.63 238.97 58 16.01 120.21 20.49 4.15 647.35 160.86 59 24.63 184.93 31.52 6.39 995.93 247.47 PEG .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 60 9.89 74.37 12.6B 2.56 403.78 99.50 61 15.78 120.86 21.02 4.09 751.80 161.75 62 15.20 114.14 19.43 3.94 627.61 152.72 63 4.42 33.16 5.65 1.15 182.54 44.38 PHIL .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 64 22.59 172.02 29.63 5.87 923.52 230.11 AUR .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 65 5.92 44.64 7.63 1.54 250.72 59.73 THIRD .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 66 19. B6 149.68 25.58 5.16 840.46 200.28 HIN .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 67 7.32 55.13 9.39 1.90 327.06 73.75 68 10.57 79.78 13.61 2.74 479.2B 106.71 69 7.70 58.47 9.97 2.00 397.35 78.14 BARN .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 70 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 71 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 72 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 73 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 74 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 75 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 BEIT .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 76 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 6ILL .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 77 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 COLCON .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 NETWORK .00 .00 .00 .00 186189.25 23270.66 135 Auto Fuel Cost Look-Up Table (By Land Use/Facil ity Type) TIME/ FUEL MULTIPLE TIME/ FUEL MULTIPLE 1/114 KILE USED FR0/1 BASE1/2 1/3 MILE USED FROM BASE 0 37.00 .0270 .0577 1.0000 44.00 .0227 .0544 1.0000 47.00 .0213 .0533 1.0000 OS 36.80 .0272 .0578 1.0020 43.75 .0229 .0545 1.0018 46.77 .0214 .0534 1.0015 .1 36.48 .0274 .0580 1.0031 43.07 .0232 .0548 1.0069 46.46 .0215 .0535 1.0036 IS 36.16 .0277 .0582 1.0063 42.40 . .0236 .0551 1.0120 46.14 .0217 .0536 1.0057 .2 35.84 .0279 .0564 1.0116 41.75 .0240 .0554 1.0172 45.83 .0218 .0537 1.0078 25 35.53 .0281 .0586 1.0148 41.10 .0243 .0556 1.0225 45.52 .0220 .0536 1.0099 .3 35.22 .0284 .0587 1.0181 40.46 .0247 .0559 1.0279 45.21 .0221 .0540 1.0120 35 34.91 .0286 .0589 1.0214 39.B3 .0251 .0562 1.0334 44.91 .0223 .0541 1.0142 .4 34.60 .0269 .0591 1.0248 39.21 .0255 .0565 1.0369 44.60 .0224 .0542 1.0164 45 34.30 .0292 .0593 1.0281 38.60 .0259 .0568 1.0446 44.30 .0226 .0543 1.0186 .5 34.00 .0294 .0595 1.0315 38.00 .0263 .0572 1.0503 44.00 .0227 .0544 1.0208 55 33.81 .0296 .0596 1.0338 37.46 .0267 .0574 1.0556 43.45 .0230 .0546 1.0249 .6 33.60 .0298 .0598 1.0361 36.83 .0272 .0578 1.0620 42.83 .0234 .0549 1.0297 65 33.40 .0299 .0599 1.0385 36.21 .0276 .0581 1.0686 42.21 .0237 .0552 1.0346 .7 33.20 .0301 .0601 1.0409 35.60 .0281 .0585 1.0752 41.60 .0240 .0554 1.0395 75 33.00 .0303 .0602 1.0433 35.00 . .0286 .0589 1.0820 41.00 .0244 .0557 1.0446 .8 32.63 .0306 .0605 1.0479 34.47 .0290 .0592 1.0882 40.46 .0247 .0559 1.0493 85 32.22 .0310 .0608 1.0331 33.83 .0296 .0596 1.0958 39.83 .0251 .0562 1.0548 .9 31.81 .0314 .0611 1.0584 33.21 .0301 .0601 1.1036 39.21 .0255 .0565 1.0605 95 31.40 .0318 .0614 1.0638 32.60 .0307 .0605 1.1115 38.60 .0259 .0568 1.0663 t 31.00 .0323 .0617 1.0692 32.00 .0313 .0609 1.1195 38.00 .0263 .0572 1.0721 TINE/ FUEL HULTIPLE TINE/ FUEL HULTIPLE TINE/ FUEL HULTIPLE TIME/ FUEL HULTIPLE 2,3,4/1 NILE USED FROM BASE2,3,4/2 NILE USED FROM BASE2,3,4/3 NILE USED FROM BASE2,3,4/4 NILE USED FROH BASE 22.00 .0455 .0718 1.0000 29.00 .0345 .0634 1.0000 32.00 .0313 .0609 1.0000 24.00 .0417 .0689 1.0000 21.87 .0457 .0720 1.0028 28.85 .0347 .0635 1.0021 31.85 .0314 .0610 1.0019 23.87 .0419 .0690 1.0026 21.66 .0462 .0723 1.0077 28.64 .0349 .0637 1.0052 31.64 .0316 .0612 1.0045 23.65 .0423 .0693 1.0068 21.44 .0466 .0727 1.0126 26.43 .0352 .0639 1.0063 31.43 .0318 .0614 1.0071 23.44 .0427 .0696 1.0111 21.23 .0471 .0730 1.0175 26.22 .0354 .0641 1.0114 31.22 .0320 .0615 1.0098 23.23 .0431 .0699 1.0154 21.02 .0476 .0734 1.0225 26.01 .0357 .0643 1.0146 31.01 .0322 .0617 1.0125 23.02 .0434 .0702 1.0197 20.81 .0480 .0737 1.0276 27.81 .0360 .0645 1.0176 30.B1 .0325 .0618 1.0151 22.81 .0438 .0705 1.0241 20.61 .0465 .0741 1.0327 27.60 .0362 .0647 1.0210 30.60 .0327 .0620 1.0179 22.61 .0442 .0708 1.0285 20.40 .0490 .0745 1.0379 27.40 .0365 .0649 1.0242 30.40 .0329 .0622 1.0206 22.40 .0446 .0711 1.0329 20.20 .0495 .0749 1.0431 27.20 .0368 .0651 1.0275 30.20 .0331 .0623 1.0233 22.20 .0450 .0715 1.0374 20.00 .0500 .0752 1.0483 27.00 .0370 .0653 1.0308 30.00 .0333 .0625 1.0261 22.00 .0453 .0718 1.0420 19.42 .0515 .0764 1.0643 26.64 .0375 .0657 1.0368 29.63 .0337 .0628 1.0312 21.42 .0467 .0727 1.0556 18.20 .0549 .0790 1.1006 26.22 .0381 .0662 1.0440 29.22 .0342 .0632 1.0373 20.51 .048B .0743 1.0786 17.07 .0586 .0818 1.1397 25.81 .0388 .0666 1.0514 28.81 .0347 .0636 1.0434 19.64 .0509 .0759 1.1026 16.00 .0625 .0648 1.1813 25.40 .0394 .0671 1.0588 28.40 .0352 .0639 1.0496 18.B0 .0532 .0777 1.1277 15.00 .0667 . .0880 1.2256 25.00 .0400 .0676 1.0664 28.00 .0357 .0643 1.0559 18.00 .0556 .0795 1.1539 14.59 .0666 .0894 1.2457 24.75 .0404 .0679 1.0714 28.43 .0352 .0639 1.0492 17.49 .0572 .0807 1.1720 13.89 .0720 .0920 1.2622 21.84 .0458 .0720 1.1362 24.23 .0413 .0666 1.1255 16.24 .0616 .0841 1.2208 13.23 .0756 .0948 1.3205 19.27 .0519 .0767 1.2098 20.65 .0484 .0740 1.2152 13.08 .0663 .0877 1.2733 12.60 .0794 .0976 1.3607 17.00 .0566 .0820 1.2931 17.60 .0566 .0804 1.3203 14.00 .0714 .0916 1.3298 12.00 .0833 .1007 1.4029 13.00 .0667 .0660 1.3875 15.00 .0667 .0880 1.4437 13.00 .0769 .0958 1.3907 ESTIMATES OF OTHER AUTO VOC 8Y FACILITY/AREA TYPE (CENTS/HILE) 1/U4 1/2 1/3 0.00 37.00 0.000 .000 44.00 0.000 7.010 47.00 0.000 7.010 .05 36.80 .348 5.895 43.75 .559 7.063 46.77 .479 7.056 .10 36.48 1.418 5.971 43.07 2.105 7.227 46.46 1.153 7.127 .13 36.16 2.280 6.047 42.40 3.627 7.387 46.14 1.822 7.198 .20 35.84 3.135 6.122 41.75 5.125 7.545 45.83 2.487 7.268 .25 35.53 3.982 6.196 41.10 6.599 7.700 45.52 3.148 7.337 .30 35.22 4.822 6.270 40.46 8.051 7.853 45.21 3.804 7.406 .35 34.91 5.654 6.343 39.83 9.481 8.003 44.91 4.453 7.474 .40 34.60 6.479 6.415 39.21 10.888 8.151 44.60 3.102 7.542 .45 34.30 7.297 6.487 38.60 12.273 8.296 44.30 3.743 7.610 .50 34.00 8.108 6.558 38.00 13.636 8.440 44.00 6.383 7.677 .55 33.81 8.629 6.604 37.46 14.858 8.568 43.45 7.546 7.799 .60 33.60 9.179 6.652 36.83 16.293 8.719 42.83 8.880 7.940 .65 33.40 9.726 6.700 36.21 17.704 8.868 42.21 10.194 8.078 .70 33.20 10.270 6.748 35.60 19.091 9.013 41.60 11.489 8.214 .75 33.00 10.811 6.795 35.00 20.435 9.157 41.00 12.766 8.348 .80 32.63 11.807 6.883 34.47 21.663 9.284 40.46 13.920 8.470 .85 32.22 12.931 6.981 33.83 23.105 9.435 39.83 15.258 8.610 .90 31.81 14.040 7.079 33.21 24.520 9.584 39.21 16.576 8.749 .95 31.40 15.135 7.175 32.60 25.909 9.730 38.60 17.872 8.885 1.00 31.00 16.216 7.270 32.00 27.273 9.874 38.00 19.149 9.020 2,3,4/2 29.00 0.000 5.740 28.85 .503 5.780 28.64 1.234 5.843 28.43 1.960 5.906 28.22 2.681 5.96B 28.01 3.397 6.029 27.81 4.107 6.090 27.60 4.812 6.151 27.40 5.512 6.211 27.20 6.207 6.271 27.00 6.897 6.331 26.64 8.142 6.438 26.22 9.589 6.562 25.81 11.012 6.685 25.40 12.414 6.806 25.00 13.793 6.924 24.75 14.666 6.999 21.84 24.705 7.864 19,27 33.563 8.627 17.00 41.379 9.299 15.00 48.276 9.893 2,3,4/3 32.00 0.000 5.740 31.85 .473 5.777 31.64 1.132 5.834 31.43 1.787 5.891 31.22 2.437 5.947 31.01 3.083 6.002 30.81 3.725 6.057 30.60 4.362 6.112 30.40 4.996 6.167 30.20 5.625 6.221 30.00 6.250 6.275 29.63 7.392 6.373 29.22 8.696 6.485 28.81 9.982 6.596 28.40 11.250 6.705 28.00 12.500 6.813 28.43 11.156 6.697 24.23 24.281 7.827 20.65 35.467 8.790 17.60 45.000 9.611 15.00 53.125 10.311 2,3,4/4 24.00 0.000 5.280 23.87 .555 5.321 23.65 1.451 5.392 23.44 2.338 5.462 23.23 3.218 5.532 23.02 4.090 5.601 22.81 4.954 5.669 22.61 5.811 3.737 22.40 6.659 5.804 22.20 7.500 5.B71 22.00 8.333 5.937 21.42 10.751 6.126 20.51 14.549 6.429 19.64 18.185 6.717 18.80 21.667 6.993 18.00 25.000 7.257 17.49 27.143 7.427 16.24 32.347 7.839 15.08 37.179 8.222 14.00 41.667 8.577 13.00 * 45.833 8.907 138 ESIIMATE5 OF TRUCK OPERATING COSTS B< AREA/FACILITY TYPE V/C 1/1,4 1/2 1/3 RATIO SPEED COST SPEED COST SPEED COST 0.00 37.00 . 24.44 44.00 29.20 47.00 28.62 .05 36.80 24.47 43.75 29.32 46.77 28.69 .10 36.48 24.51 43.07 29.43 46.46 28.76 .15 36.16 24.55 42.40 29.55 46.14 28.83 .20 35.84 24.59 41.75 29.66 45.83 28.91 .25 35.53 24.62 41.10 29.78 45.52 28.98 .30 35.22 24.66 40.46 29.89 45.21 29.06 .35 34.91 24.7 39.83 30.04 44.91 29.13 .40 34.60 24.74 39.21 30.17 44.60 29.21 .45 34.30 24.78 38.60 30.30 44.30 29.29 .50 34.00 24.82 38.00 30.43 44.00 29.36 .55 33.81 24.86 37.46 30.57 43.45 29.44 .60 33.60 24.B9 36.83 30.70 42.83 29.51 .65 33.40 24.93 36.21 30.83 42.21 29.59 .70 33.20 24.97 35.60 30.97 41.60 29.66 .75 33.00 25.01 35.00 31.1 41.00 29.74 .80 32.63 25.05 34.47 31.20 40.46 29.81 .85 32.22 25.08 33.83 31.30 39.83 29.89 .90 31.81 25.12 33.21 31.40 39.21 30.3 .95 31.40 25.16 32.60 31.50 38.60 30.7 1.00 31.00 25.2 32.00 31.6 38.00 31 2,3,4/2 2,3,4/3 SPEED COST SPEED 29.00 23.32 32.00 28.85 23.35 31.85 28.64 23.38 31.64 26.43 23.41 31.43 28.22 23.44 31.22 28.01 23.48 31.01 27.81 23.51 30.61 27.60 23.54 30.60 27.40 23.57 30.40 27.20 23.60 30.20 27.00 23.63 30.00 26.64 23.66 29.63 26.22 23.69 29.22 25.81 23.72 26.81 25.40 23.75 28.40 25.00 23.7B 28.00 24.75 23.97 28.43 21.84 24.16 24.23 19.27 24.34 20.65 17.00 24.52 17.60 15.00 24.71 15.00 2,3,4/4 COST SPEED COST 23.12 24.00 22.3 23.24 23.87 . • 22.33 23.32 23.65 22.36 23.39 23.44 22.39 23.47 23.23 22.42 23.54 23.02 22.45 23.62 22.81 22.48 23.70 22.61 22.51 23.77 22.40 22.53 23.85 22.20 22.56 23.93 22.00 22.59 24.00 21.42 22.62 24.08 20.51 22.65 24.16 19.64 22.68 24.24 18.80 22.72 24.32 18.00 22.77 24.39 17.49 22.81 24.47 16.24 22.85 24.55 15.08 22.89 24.63 14.00 22.94 24.71 13.00 22.98 139 LINXS WLIMS TVOLAH TVOLHD TVOLPH TVOLO TRUCKAK TRUCOO TRUC0H TRUCKO MJTOAH AUTOHS MJTOPrl 1 34034 2042 16609 5377 10006 395 2949 301 103 1647 13660 4876 2 36323 2179 17726 5739 10679 421 3147 335 110 1738 14378 3204 S 36083 2285 18385 6017 11197 442 3300 361 115 1843 13285 3456 4 44919 2695 21920 7097 13206 321 3892 662 133 2174 18028 6435 3 43372 2614 21263 6884 12810 305 3776 642 131 2109 17488 6243 6 39109 2347 I908S 6179 11498 434 3389 376 118 1893 13696 3603 7 42640 2338 20808 6737 12336 495 3693 628 129 2064 17114 6109 1 33287 2117 17220 5575 10374 409 3038 320 106 1708 14162 3036 9 23034 1302 12217 3935 7360 290 2169 369 76 1212 10047 3387 AIR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 14438 1184 7233 2597 3425 191 1424 242 SO 993 3B08 2333 11 12762 919 5615 2016 4211 148 1106 188 38 771 4509 1826 12 20218 1436 8896 3195 6672 235 1732 298 61 1221 7144 2897 13 16463 1185 7244 2601 5433 191 1427 243 30 994 3817 2339 14 18766 1331 8257 2965 6193 218 1626 276 57 1133 6631 2689 IS 18717 1348 8235 2937 6177 217 1622 276 36 1130 6614 2682 STNB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 16438 1184 7233 2397 3423 191 1424 242 30 993 380B 2333 17 12762 919 5613 2016 4211 148 1106 188 38 771 4509 1828 18 13235 934 3832 2094 4374 134 1149 193 40 801 46B4 1899 19 16465 1183 7243 2602 3434 191 1427 243 30 993 5818 2339 20 18769 1331 8258 2965 6194 218 1626 276 57 1134 6632 2689 21 18717 1348 8235 2957 6177 217 1622 276 36 1130 6614 2682 STUB' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 U392 820 5013 1800 3739 132 987 168 34 688 4025 1632 23 11579 834 5095 1829 3821 134 1003 171 33 699 4091 1639 IICH 0 0 0 0 0 0 • 0 0 0 0 0 24 14841 890 7242 2342 4363 172 1286 219 43 71B 5936 2123 23 9380 363 4578 1480 2758 109 813 138 28 434 3763 1342 26 13218 793 6451 2086 3886 133 1145 193 40 640 3303 1891 27 16608 996 8105 2621 4883 193 1439 243 30 804 6666 2376 28 13392 804 6535 2113 3937 133 1160 197 40 648 337S 1914 29 10967 638 5352 1731 3224 127 930 162 33 331 4402 1369 SFEE8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 11187 671 5459 1763 3289 130 969 165 34 341 4490 1601 31 7411 445 3617 1169 2179 86 642 109 22 339 2974 1060 32 11306 678 5518 1784 3324 131 980 167 34 547 4538 1618 33 16623 998 8113 2623 4888 193 1441 245 30 805 6673 2379 34 15363 934 7596 2436 4576 181 1349 229 47 753 6247 2227 33 12820 769 4236 2023 3769 149 1111 189 39 621 3145 1834 SFENB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 27572 1875 13345 4538 7808 320 2389 406 83 1335 10936 4132 37 27572 1875 13345 4538 7808 320 23B9 406 83 1535 10956 4132 38 29798 2026 14422 4905 8439 346 2382 439 90 1681 11840 4466 IM1V 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 10035 723 4375 1586 3312 116 870 148 30 606 3306 1438 PARKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 8907 609 4311 1466 2322 103 772 131 27 306 3339 1333 41 20143 1378 9749 3316 5703 234 1743 297 61 1144 8004 3019 6EIST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 27818 1491 13731 4679 7911 323 2410 410 84 1168 11321 4269 43 33837 1814 16702 5691 9623 393 2932 498 102 1421 13770 3193 44 31143 1669 15373 5239 BBSS 361 2699 439 94 1308 12674 4780 43 36426 1932 17980 6127 10360 423 3136 337 n o 1330 14824 3590 46 30627 1642 13117 5151 8710 335 2634 431 92 1286 12464 4700 47 22600 1211 11136 3801 6428 262 1938 333 68 949 9197 3468 COLL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 18731 892 10564 2989 4293 217 1623 276 36 674 8941 2714 4? 18731 892 10364 2989 4293 217 1623 276 36 674 8941 2714 30 26550 1264 14974 4237 6083 308 2301 391 80 936 12674 3846 140 SI 29003 1381 163S9 4629 6648 336 2513 427 87 1044 13843 4202 ILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 » 0 0 0 0 0 32 9980 473 3629 1393 2287 116 865 147 30 339 4764 1446 S3 21172 1017 12034 3411 4898 248 1832 313 64 769 10202 3096 54 18990 904 10710 3031 4332 220 1646 280 57 684 9063 2751 CUSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 23443 1116 13222 3742 3373 272 2031 343 71 844 11191 3396 Si 20026 933 11294 3196 4390 232 1735 - 295 60 721 9539 2901 (CUSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 8803 602 4713 1442 2030 102 763 130 27 500 3930 1313 SB 7871 538 4213 1289 1832 91 682 116 24 447 3331 1173 39 7871 338 4213 1289 1832 91 682 116 24 447 3531 1173 PE6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 8770 600 4694 1437 2042 102 760 129 26 498 3934 1307 61 12239 837 6331 2005 2849 142 1061 180 37 695 S490 1825 62 8097 334 4333 1326 1883 94 702 119 24 460 3632 1207 63 8822 603 4721 1445 2034 102 764 130 27 501 3957 1315 PHIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 10926 386 3393 1838 3107 127 947 161 33 459 4446 1677 MJR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 11133 597 3495 1873 3166 129 965 164 34 468 4531 1709 THIRD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 11133 597 3495 1873 3166 129 965 164 34 468 4531 1709 NIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 16556 788 9338 2642 3795 192 1435 244 SO 596 7903 2398 68 13572 741 8783 2485 3569 181 1349 229 47 561 7433 2236 69 19313 729 8637 2444 3510 178 1327 226 46 551 7310 2218 BARN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 •0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SEIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLCON 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NETWORK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 141 NHBAH NHBHD 1.43 41.49 1.26 37.05 2.36 69.37 4.2? 129.68 3.04 90.70 7.92 233.02 2.71 92.65 6.87 203.74 4.6B 132.49 .00 .00 2.07 41.05 1.B4 37.21 1.26 26.32 .85 17.03 2.35 46.50 1.63 32.46 .00 .00 2.53 50.32 1.79 36.12 .79 15.91 .85 17.03 2.45 48.37 1.63 32.46 .00 .00 2.24 44.51 2.44 49.27 .00 .00 1.22 36.14 1.31 39.07 2.SB 81.48 2.93 96.60 2.45 71.28 .89 25.48 .00 .00 .91 27.88 1.02 29.96 2.18 66.34 2.94 96.70 3.08 97.81 .73 22.35 .00 .00 1.52 36.89 4.63 112.42 3.44 84.73 .00 .00 .81 15.62 .00 .00 2.37 54.86 2.66 62.90 .00 .00 6.36 227.56 7.65 285.81 6.65 229.97 2.99 102.59 3.B2 133.33 .43 14.36 .00 .00 .86 40.04 .47 21.56 .53 25.31 NHBO 12.46 24.09 12.41 21.17 26.34 39.64 60.66 71.61 48.00 51.14 90.86 132.40 42.43 45.51 86.30 114.61 39.30 78.64 .00 .00 13.64 31.02 12.7B 27.25 9.43 18.63 5.72 12.B7 15.93 34.93 11.12 24.38 .00 .00 16.72 38.02 12.40 26.45 5.46 11.65 5.72 12.87 16.57 36.33 11.12 24.38 .00 .00 14.79 33.63 16.37 37.23 .00 .00 10.54 20.41 11.64 21.76 24.85 43.07 27.35 48.92 20.82 40.90 7.44 14.85 .00 .00 8.45 15.24 8.74 16.92 20.10 36.27 27.38 48.97 28.74 50.60 6.91 12.01 .00 .00 13.32 20.83 40.61 63.49 35.40 47.48 .00 .00 5.19 12.26 .00 .00 16.65 32.67 19.33 36.71 .00 .00 86.09 118.89 111.49 144.27 111.15 124.61 58.24 56.02 59.67 71.53 4.57 8.13 .00 .00 9.72 15.42 5.23 8.30 6.20 9.31 TIHEAH TIPIEHD .3668 .3890 .3021 .3255 .5394 .5813 .8321 .9213 .6078 .6643 1.7645 1.9014 .5526 .6934 1.6954 1.8425 1.6277 1.6889 .0000 .0000 .8773 .9052 1.0085 1.0570 .4352 .4719 .3609 .3750 .8746 .8982 .6069 .6287 .0000 .0000 1.0754 1.1096 .9788 1.0259 .4153 .4352 .3609 .3750 .9096 .9341 .606? .6287 .0000 .0000 1.3725 1.4162 1.4716 1.5424 .0000 .0000 .7186 .7772 1.2118 1.3293 1.7023 1.9670 1.538? 1.8562 1.5954 1.6986 .7075 .7415 .0000 .0000 .7119 .7954 1.1930 1.2902 1.6758 1.B724 1.538? 1.8562 1.7254 2.0053 .4971 .5562 .0000 .0000 .4117 .4313 1.2547 1.3143 .8626 .9165 .0000 .0000 .5629 .5706 .0000 .0000 l.?723 1.9855 .9B01 1.0065 .0000 .0000 2.2938 2.5746 2.2678 2.6584 2.1423 2.3239 .8234 .8864 1.2514 1.3701 . 1913 .2000 .0000 .0000 .5487 .5735 .2954 .3086 .2339 .2558 TIHEPH TIHEO .4122 .3641 .3847 .2998 .7785 .5354 1.5200 .8199 1.2400 .6037 2.6149 1.7412 1.1200 .5489 2.7529 1.6705 1.7670 1.6157 .0000 .0000 .9340 .8636 1.1268 .9774 .3250 .4218 .3911 .3578 .9554 .851? .6688 .5963 .0000 .0000 1.1449 1.0586 1.0936 .9486 .4640 .4024 .3911 .3578 .9936 .8860 .6688 .5963 .0000 .0000 1.4613 1.3512 1.3915 1.4716 .0000 .0000 .8008 .7075 1.3989 1.1930 2.1187 1.6758 1.8562 1.5149 1.7526 1.5706 .7651 .6965 .0000 .0000 .8512 .7008 1.3293 1.1744 2.0039 1.6498 1.8562 1.514? 2.0813 1.6722 .6074 .4818 .0000 .0000 .5200 .4036 1.3848 1.2300 1.2784 .8512 .0000 .0000 .5824 .5591 .0000 .0000 2.0120 1.9593 1.0326 .9736 .0000 .0000 3.2519 2.2732 3.4622 2.2678 3.7500 2.1281 1.6BO0 .8180 2.0471 1.2422 .2126 .1913 .0000 .0000 .5776 .5447 .3111 .2933 .2598 .2321 142 .47 22.98 5.69 8.32 .00 .00 .00 .00 .1? 8.58 2.09 3.31 1.34 72.81 19.97 23.50 .33 29.86 8.19 9.64 .00 .00 .00 .00 3.36 266.49 64.23 62.31 2.02 145.72 36.88 35.42 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.97 53.04 14.38 22.05 1.32 35.13 9.40 14.90 2.02 54.04 14.46 22.92 .00 .00 .00 .00 .82 21.82 5.84 . 9.19 1.33 37.66 13.48 14.81 1.38 36.98 9.83 15.63 .40 10.75 2.88 4.54 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.38 45.52 14.09 25.88 .00 .00 .00 .00 .40 13.27 4.19 7.51 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.34 44.48 14.04 25.18 .00 .00 .00 .00 .39 26.68 6.50 10.30 .85 39.26 9.56 15.00 .63 31.98 B.77 11.01 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .1913 .2126 .2182 .18?? .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .2216 .2306 .232? .2194 .7348 .9141 1.0400 .7275 .3391 .421? .4800 .3358 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.7762 3.0500 3.0500 1.7586 1.1820 1.9524 2.0500 1.1703 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.6638 1.7200 1.7661 1.6310 1.240? 1.2743 1.2914 1.2327 1.9091 1.9605 1.9868 1.8965 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .6919 .7105 .7200 .6827 .8038 .8786 1.1912 .7880 1.2662 1.3041 1.3138 1.2569 .3377 .3478 .3529 .3352 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.2684 1.3113 1.3554 1.2600 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .3614 .3750 .3953 .3588 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.2118 1.2574 1.3253 1.2029 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .4156 .4324 .4368 .4115 ,6372 .6764 .6832 .6372 .4804 .5603 .6375 .4757 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 143 TRAM TRHD TRPH 6.64 52.58 9.47 3.83 46.96 9.44 10.92 87.92 20.02 19.87 164.36 46.10 14.08 114.96 36.48 36.69 295.33 69.05 12.33 117.43 32.25 31.81 258.22 65.59 21.66 167.92 29.87 .00 .00 .00 7.67 59.10 10.37 6.84 53.57 9.71 4.68 37.89 7.17 3.16 24.52 4.35 8.73 66.94 12.11 6.04 46.73 8.45 .00 .00 .00 9.40 72.44 12.71 6.64 52.00 9.42 2.93 22.91 4.15 3.16 24.52 4.35 9.08 69.63 12.59 6.04 46.73 8.45 .00 .00 .00 8.31 64.08 11.24 9.06 70.93 12.44 .00 .00 .00 3.67 45.81 8.02 6.04 49.52 8.86 11.96 103.26 18.91 13.39 122.43 20.82 11.36 90.35 15.85 4.13 32.30 5.67 .00 .00 .00 4.23 35.34 6.43 4.70 37.97 6.65 10.07 B4.08 15.30 13.60 122.56 20.84 14.28 123.96 21.87 3.39 28.32 5.26 .00 .00 .00 6.04 47.23 9.68 18.39 143.92 29.50 13.67 108.46 25.72 .00 .00 .00 3.00 22.74 3.95 .00 .00 .00 9.34 70.23 12.10 10.30 80.52 14.04 .00 .00 .00 33.93 284.44 61.08 40.80 357.25 79.10 35.47 287.45 78.86 15.95 12B.23 41.32 20.38 166.65 42.33 2.30 17.95 3.24 .00 .00 .00 5.46 42.66 7.31 2.94 22.97 3.93 3.30 26.97 4.66 HBHAH HBMHD 1.71 10.94 29.13 1.51 9.62 26.01 2.82 18.01 48.70 5.09 32.77 91.05 3.64 23.22 63.68 9.41 60.50 163.60 3.24 20.66 65.05 8.15 52.45 143.04 5.59 35.72 93.02 .00 .00 .00 1.96 15.78 28.82 1.72 14.08 26.13 1.18 9.63 18.48 .81 6.50 11.96 2.21 17.96 32.65 1.54 12.43 22.79 .00 .00 .00 2.41 19.34 35.33 1.67 13.67 25.36 .74 6.02 11.17 .81 6.50 11.96 2.30 18.68 33.96 1.54 12.43 22.79 .00 .00 .00 2.13 17.11 31.25 2.36 18.64 34.59 .00 .00 .00 1.45 9.35 25.38 1.55 9.97 27.43 3.06 19.73 57.20 3.48 22.41 67.82 2.91 18.73 50.05 1.06 6.80 17.89 .00 .00 .00 1.08 6.98 19.58 1.20 7.75 21.04 2.58 16.61 46.58 3.48 22.43 67.89 3.60 23.54 68.67 .85 5.59 15.69 .00 .00 .00 1.54 11.60 25.90 4.69 35.34 78.93 3.51 26.26 59.48 .00 .00 .00 .78 6.18 10.97 .00 .00 .00 2.41 18.07 38.52 2.71 20.31 44.16 .00 .00 .00 8.74 48.54 159.77 10.61 58.38 200.66 9.16 50.76 161.46 4.12 22.82 72.03 5.26 29.16 93.61 .60 3.29 10.08 .00 .00 .00 1.41 6.70 28.11 .76 3.61 15.14 .85 4.05 17.77 HBVO HBOAH 12.57 22.56 2.43 12.52 19.82 2.14 26.57 37.12 4.01 61.20 67.05 7.29 48.43 47.8? 5.16 91.66 123.97 13.46 42.81 42.61 4.60 87.07 107.31 11.67 39.65 73.63 7.95 .00 .00 .00 13.76 2?. 04 3.31 12.89 25.52 3.13 9.51 17.45 2.14 5.77 12.05 1.45 16.07 32.70 3.99 11.22 22.83 2.76 .00 .00 .00 16.87 35.60 4.30 12.51 24.76 3.04 5.51 10.91 1.34 5.77 12.05 1.45 16.71 34.02 . 4.15 11.22 22.83 2.76 .00 .00 .00 14.92 31.49 3.81 16.52 34.86 4.15 .00 .00 .00 10.64 19.12 2.08 11.75 20.37 2.22 25.07 40.33 4.3? 27.5? 45.80 4.98 21.01 38.29 4.17 7.51 13.91 1.51 .00 .00 .00 8.52 14.27 1.55 8.82 15.84 1.72 20.28 33.96 3.70 27.62 45.85 4.?? 2?. 00 47.38 5.24 6.?7 11.24 1.24 .00 .00 .00 13.44 19.51 2.58 40.97 59.45 7.86 35.72 44.46 5.84 .00 .00 .00 5.24 11.48 1.37 ,00 .00 .00 16. ao 30.59 4.02 19.50 34.38 4.52 .00 .00 .00 86.86 111.32 10.80 112.48 135.09 12.?? 112.14 116.68 11.2? 58.76 52.45 5.08 60.20 66.97 6.4? 4.61 7.61 .73 .00 .00 .00 9.81 14.44 1.4? 5.28 7.77 .80 6.25 B.72 .?0 IHD HBOPH HBOO 27.08 13.05 21.42 24.1? 13.00 18.82 45.2? 27.58 35.25 84.66 63.50 63.67 59.21 50.25 45.47 152.12 95.12 117.72 60.4? 44.42 40.46 133.01 90.35 101.90 86.4? 41.14 69.92 .00 .00 .00 26.80 14.28 27.58 24.2? 13.37 24.23 17.18 ?.87 16.57 11.12 5.?? 11.44 30.36 16.68 31.06 21.1? 11.64 21.68 .00 .00 .00 32. B5 17.50 33.80 23.58 12.98 23.32 10.3? 5.72 10.36 11.12 5.99 11.44 31.58 17.34 32.30 21.1? 11.64 21.68 .00 .00 .00 29.06 15.48 29.90 32.16 17.14 33.10 .00 .00 .00 23.60 11.04 18.13 25.51 12.19 19.35 53.19 26.01 38.29 63.06 28.63 43.49 46.54 21.80 36.36 16.64 7.79 13.21 .00 .00 .00 18.20 8.84 13.55 19.56 9.15 15.05 43.31 21.04 32.25 63.13 28.66 43.54 63.85 30.09 44.99 14.59 7.23 10.68 .00 .00 .00 24.0B 13.95 18.52 73.39 42.51 56.45 55.31 37.06 42.22 .00 .00 .00 10.20 5.44 10.90 .00 .00 .00 35.B2 17.44 29.05 41.06 20.24 32.64 .00 .00 .00 148.56 90.13 105.71 186.59 116.72 128.28 150.13 116.36 110.80 66.97 60.97 49.81 87.04 62.46 63.60 9.38 4.79 7.23 .00 .00 .00 26.14 10.18 13.71 14.07 5.48 7.38 16.52 6.49 8.2B 144 2.75 24.49 .00 .00 1.18 9.14 8.33 77.3? 3.42 31.82 .00 .00 22.14 283.97 12.58 155.28 .00 .00 7.7? 60.15 5.1? 39.83 7.99 61.29 .00 .00 3.23 24.75 5.23 42.71 5.45 41.94 1.58 12.19 .00 .00 7.37 56.90 .00 .00 2.14 16.58 .00 .00 7.17 55.60 .00 .00 3.66 28.43 5.28 41.83 3.91 34.08 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 4.27 .76 .00 .00 1.57 .30 15.01 2.15 6.15 .88 .00 .00 48.28 3.70 27.72 3.24 .00 .00 10.50 1.9? 6.86 1.34 10.56 2.06 .00 .00 4.26 .83 9.84 1.33 7.18 1.41 2.10 .41 .00 .00 10.00 1.90 .00 .00 2.?7 .55 .00 .00 9.96 1.85 .00 .00 4.88 .94 7.18 1.37 6.59 1.01 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 3.62 16.14 .00 .00 1.44 6.02 10.24 51.12 4.20 20.96 .00 .00 27.15 187.10 15.43 102.31 .00 .00 15.07 37.24 10.05 24.66 15.46 37.94 .00 .00 6.24 15.32 10.12 26.44 10.55 25.96 3.07 7.54 .00 .00 10.54 31.94 .00 .00 3.06 9.31 .00 .00 10.26 31.23 .00 .00 4.49 18.73 6.47 27.56 4.80 22.45 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 3.74 7.79 .00 .00 2.11 3.10 20.14 22.00 8.26 9.02 .00 .00 64.80 58.34 37.21 33.16 .00 .00 14.50 20.65 9.48 13.95 14.58 21.46 .00 .00 5.89 8.61 13.60 13.87 9.92 14.63 2.90 4.25 .00 .00 14.22 24.24 .00 .00 4.23 7.03 .00 .00 14.17 23.58 .00 .00 6.55 9.64 9.64 14.04 8.85 10.31 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .80 15.00 .00 .00 .32 3.60 2.28 47.53 .93 19.49 .00 .00 6.04 173.97 3.43 95.13 .00 .00 3.35 34.63 2.24 22.93 3.44 35.28 .00 .00 1.39 14.25 2.25 24.59 2.35 24.14 .68 7.01 .00 .00 2.35 29.72 .00 .00 .68 8.66 .00 .00 2.28 29.04 .00 .00 1.00 17.42 1.44 25.63 1.07 20.88 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 5.95 7.40 .00 .00 2.19 2.?4 20.90 20.89 8.57 8.37 .00 .00 67.25 55.40 38.61 31.49 .00 .00 15.05 19.60 9.B4 13.25 15.13 20.38 .00 .00 6.11 8.17 14.11 13.17 10.29 13.89 3.01 4.04 .00 .00 14.75 23.01 .00 .00 4.38 6.68 .00 .00 14.70 22.39 .00 .00 6.80 9.15 10.01 13.33 9.18 9.79 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 145 TOTAL LOW TOTAL HIGH TINE COST TIHE COST 289.07 3864.25 261.75 3500.46 501.92 6716.80 972.84 13030.08 705.36 9457.98 1692.82 22653.83 669.81 8963.52 1502.08 20109.08 927.69 12402.79 .00 .00 326.44 4342.17 294.58 3916.47 207.40 2754.94 135.59 1803.96 371.17 4936.60 258.92 3444.28 .00 .00 400.15 5322.65 285.91 3801.15 125.98 1674.85 135.61 1804.18 3B&.05 5134.5? 258.92 3444.28 .00 .00 353.94 4708.10 391.25 5205.9? .00 .00 24B.63 3321.73 268.53 35B7.52 553.38 7390.56 639.92 8539.87 492.86 6585.70 177.08 2346.47 .00 .00 191.09 2552.71 206.10 2753.33 454.63 6073.28 640.59 8548.80 656.72 8765.06 153.05 2043.87 .00 .00 266.63 3557.62 812.56 10841.71 628.77 8398.51 .00 .00 126.12 1677.47 .00 .00 390.94 5213.58 446.19 5949.94 .00 .00 1588.78 21296.74 1988.17 26652.02 1712.93 23006.67 798.35 10736.36 972.49 13053.41 99.31 1330.86 .00 .00 233.48 3138.58 125.71 1689.94 146.12 1964.00 146 132.39 1779.36 .00 .00 SO.07 673.04 415.83 5589.00 170.53 2292.09 .00 .00 1396.73 18743.40 775.64 10412.20 .00 .00 331.95 4430.26 220.35 2941.54 339.01 4525.52 .00 .00 136.71 1824.73 244.53 3268.83 231.53 3090.59 67.36 899.12 .00 .00 313.85 4205.12 .00 .00 91.64 1227.99 .00 .00 307.27 4117.27 .00 .00 155.76 2093.85 228.44 3071.22 185.29 2490.96 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 32269.23 431707.62 SE1ST EVALUATION VE1GHTED LINK AADT DISTANCE AV6 VOL 1 25705 .17 not 2 25777 .14 909 3 34559 .25 2176 4 37916 .38 3629 3 34324 .31 2680 6 35409 .9 B027 7 30097 .28 2123 8 17165 .7B 3372 9 16166 .76 3095 AIR 0 3.97 27113 10 10346 .62 2430 11 8074 .66 2080 12 6294 .28 668 13 97B2 .21 778 14 13B21 .5 2618 IS 10710 .35 1420 STNB 0 2.64 9992.60 16 13628 .76 4273 17 11809 .66 2804 IB 8213 .28 B27 19 10538 .21 796 20 14337 .52 2682 21 13136 .33 1654 STUB 0 2.78 13035.11 22 19303 .97 19303 23 16724 1.04 16724 RICH 0 0 0 24 118B2 .3 1174 25 6992 .83 1147 26 • 10429 1.13 2329 27 13465 .99 2634 28 10585 1.11 2322 29 8414 .5 B31 SFEEB 0 5.06 10437.98 30 8610 .48 B49 31 522? .83 891 32 8717 1.13 2023 33 13480 .99 2740 34 12531 1.11 2856 35 10073 .33 683 SFEKB 0 4.87 10041.43 36 16157 .21 2630 37 16253 .64 8064 38 16157 .44 3511 UNIV 0 1.29 16204.79 39 20493 .43 20493 PARKS 0 0 0 40 13312 1.04 8932 41 22099 .51 7271 6E1ST 0 1.55 16203.17 42 9270 .88 2070 43 9523 .87 2103 44 14705 1.1 4105 45 23B13 .42 253B 46 18083 .SB 2662 47 9941 .09 227 COLL 0 3.94 13706.12 48 20820 .26 9022 49 19208 .14 4482 50 2264? .11 4152 148 SI 25311 .0? 3797 ILL 0 .60 21452.S? 32 12612 .08 2193 53 13580 .26 8806 34 10948 .12 2856 CUSH 0 .46 13855.65 55 23183 .61 13865 56 14079 .41 5659 SCUSH 0 1.02 19323.76 57 20329 .86 6965 58 22954 .65 5944 59 2137? 1 8517 PE6 0 2.51 21426.78 60 5271 .36 1240 61 314 .41 84 62 5250 .6 2059 63 4450 .16 465 PHIL 0 1.53 3848.42 64 2356 .66 2356 AUR 0 0 0 65 10294 .17 10294 THIRD 0 0 0 66 13842 .57 13B42 HIN 0 0 0 67 14611 .15 39B5 68 13031 .23 5449 69 13971 .17 4318 BARN 0 .55 13752.4B 70 26922 1.13 5907 71 19738 .81 3104 72 23879 .45 2086 73 11815 1.26 2891 74 11550 .75 1682 75 12912 .75 1880 GEXT 0 5.15 17551.02 76 12064 .9 12064 6ILL 0 0 77 13761 .9 13761 COLCON 0 0 NETWORK 0 0 ROAD ADT ACCDNT'S ANNUAL TOTAL DISTRIBUTION OF ACCIDENTS SEBHENT PER HVH VH(HILS) ACCDNT'S POO NAIS1 NAIS2 KA1S3 NAIS4 HA1S5 FATALS AIR 27112.69 8.4727 32.1836 272.6803 250.2114 18.2968 2.5359 1.1180 .1909 .0545 .2727 STNB 9992.602 4.4703 7.8878 33.2610 32.3555 2.3660 .3279 .1446 .0247 .0071 .0353 STSB 13035.11 5.5808 10.8350 60.4682 55.4856 4.0574 .5624 .2479 .0423 .0121 .0605 RICHNB 19302.83 7.3245 5.5984 41.0057 37.6269 2.7315 .3814 .1681 .0287 .0082 .0410 SFEEB 10437.98 4.6437 15.7920 73.3331 67.2905 4.9207 .6820 .3007 .0513 .0147 .0733 SFEHB 10041.43 4.4895 14.6216 65.6442 60.2351 4.4047 .6105 .2691 .0460 .0131 .0656 UNIV 16204.79 6.5542 6.2503 40.965B 37.5902 2.7488 .3810 .1680 .0287 .0082 .0410 PARKS 20492.86 7.5729 2.6348 19.9529 18.3087 1.3388 .1856 .0818 .0140 .0040 .0200 BEIST 16203.17 6.5537 7.5094 49.2142 45.1389 3.3023 .4577 .2018 .0344 .0098 .0492 C0LLE6E 13706 5.8025 16.1466 93.6905 85.9704 6.2866 .8713 .3841 .0656 .0187 .0937 ILL 21452.59 7.7540 3.8486 29.8419 27.3830 2.0024 .2775 .1224 .0209 .0060 .0298 CUSH 13855.65 5.8507 1.9057 11.1498 10.2310 .7482 .1037 .0457 .0078 .0022 .0111 SCUSH 19523.76 7.3726 5.9544 43.8994 40.2821 2.9456 .4083 .1800 .0307 .0088 .043? PE6 21426.78 7.7493 16.0806 124.6139 114.3457 8.3616 1.1589 .5109 .0872 .0249 .1246 PHIL 3848.42 1.7018 1.7605 2.9960 2.7491 .2010 .0279 .0123 .0021 .0006 .0030 AUR 2355.94 .9230 .4649 .4291 .3938 .0288 .0040 .0018 .0003 .0001 .0004 THIRD 10294 4.5880 .5232 2.4006 2.2028 .1611 .0223 .0098 .0017 .0005 .0024 IflNNIE 13842.22 5.8464 2.3591 13.7925 12.6560 .9255 .1283 .0565 .0097 .0028 .0138 BARN 13752.48 5.8175 4.6466 27.0313 24.8039 1.8138 .2514 .1108 .0189 .0054 .0270 6EIST 17551.02 6.9109 27.0259 186.7737 171.3836 12.5325 1.7370 .7658 .1307 .0374 .1868 BEIT 12063.78 5.2450 3.2464 17.0273 15.6242 1.1425 .1584 .0698 .0119 .0034 .0170 6ILL 13761 5.8202 3.7031 21.5529 19.7769 1.4462 .2004 .0884 .0151 .0043 .0216 RICHSB 16724.29 6.6958 5.2006 34.8222 31.9529 2.3366 .3238 .1428 .0244 .0070 .0348 NETWORK T 1268.55 1164.02 85.1195 11.7975 5.2010 ' .8880 .2537 1.2685 COSTS BY TYPE OF ACCIDENT PDO NA1S1 HAIS2 HAIS3 2?13B3 58263 16239 16015 3767? 7534 2100 2071 64616 12920 3601 3551 43818 8762 2442 2408 78363 15669 4367 4307 70147 14026 3909 3855 43776 8753 2440 2406 21321 4263 1186 1172 52590 10516 2931 2891 100117 20019 5580 5503 3188? 6376 1777 1753 11915 2382 664 655 46910 9380 2614 2578 133161 26626 7421 7319 3202 640 178 176 45? 92 26 25 2565 513 143 141 14738 2947 821 810 288B5 5776 1610 1588 199584 39908 11123 10970 18195 3638 1014 1000 23031 4605 1284 1266 37211 7440 2074 2045 1082537 21645? 60332 59500 TOTAL HAI54 HAIS5 FATALS COST 13539 1982B 147297 562565 1751 2564 19047 72747 3002 4397 32664 124752 2036 2982 22150 B4599 3641 5333 39613 151293 3259 4773 35460 135430 2034 2979 22129 84516 991 1451 1077S 41165 2444 3579 26565 101533 4652 6613 50610 193292 14B2 2170 16120 61567 554 811 6023 23003 2160 3192 23714 90568 6187 9061 67314 257090 149 218 1618 6181 21 31 232 885 119 175 1297 4953 685 1003 7450 28455 1342 1966 14602 55768 9273 13562 100891 385331 845 1238 9198 35129 1070 1567 11642 44466 1729 2532 18810 71841 50299 73666 547232 261712? 150 APPENDIX C 151 VEHICLE VEHICLE TIHE TIHE TOTAL TOTAL ANNUAL ANNUAL OPERATING OPERATING COST COST COST COST COST COST COST-AUTO COST-TRUCK HI8H LOW HI8H LOW HI6H LOW 1986 64609 16332 333451 24934 414392 105875 123,903,291 31,656,503 1987 70161 17369 364992 27290 452522 114819 135,304,147 34,331,002 1988 72530 17862 377991 28261 468382 118652 140,046,264 35,477,088 1989 74979 18368 391452 29267 484799 122614 144,954,884 36,661,607 1990 77511 18889 405392 30308 501792 126709 150,035,860 37,885,854 1991 80128 19425 419829 31387 519382 130940 155,295,255 39,151,168 1992 82834 19976 434780 32504 537590 135314 160,739,344 40,458,930 1993 85631 20542 450263 33661 556437 139835 166,374,621 41,810,572 199* 88523 21125 466298 34859 575946 144507 172,207,812 43,207,370 1995 91512 21724 482904 36100 596140 149336 178,245,877 44,651,454 1996 93932 22225 501451 37495 617609 153652 184,664,952 45,941,901 1997 95348 22530 511100 38219 628978 156097 188,064,383 46,672,989 1998 96786 22839 520934 38957 640558 158582 191,526,954 47,413,891 1999 98245 23152 530957 39709 652354 161106 195,053,848 48,170,803 2000 99726 23470 541173 40476 664369 163672 198,646,268 48,937,921 2001 101229 23792 551586 41258 676607 166279 202,305,440 49,717,447 2002 102755 24119 562199 42055 689072 168928 206,032,614 50,509,585 2003 104304 24450 573016 42867 701769 171621 209,829,062 51,314,541 2004 105876 24785 584041 43695 714703 174356 213,696,081 52,132,527 2005 107472 25126 595279 44539 727876 177136 217,634,992 52,963,757 VEHICLE VEHICLE TIHE TIHE TOTAL TOTAL ANNUAL ANNUAL 0PERAT1N6 0PERATIN6 COST COST COST COST COST COST COST-AUTO COST-TRUCK H16H LOW HI6H LOW HIGH LOW 1986 64609 16332 346386 25901 427327 106842 127,770,753 31,945,876 1987 67326 16987 355362 26571 439675 110884 131,462,766 33,154,242 1988 70929 17834 372667 27833 461430 116597 137,967,667 34,862,450 1989 71700 18024 392949 29305 482673 119029 144,319,274 35,589,805 1990 75519 18926 396768 29660 491213 124105 146,872,726 37,107,482 1991 75087 18921 402654 30098 496662 124106 148,502,047 37,107,599 1992 78258 19606 419110 31335 516974 129198 154,575,299 38,630,333 1993 80954 20200 433163 32390 534317 133544 159,760,818 39,929,695 1994 83744 20811 447687 33481 552242 138036 165,120,377 41,272,845 1995 86629 21441 462698 34609 570769 142680 170,659,820 42,661,260 1996 88880 21930 475457 35562 586266 146372 175,293,682 43,765,224 1997 90204 22228 482828 36113 595260 148545 177,982,701 44,414,971 1998 91547 22531 490313 36673 604391 150750 180,712,998 45,074,379 1999 92911 22837 497915 37241 613663 152989 183,485,207 45,743,591 2000 94295 23148 505634 37817 623077 155260 186,299,973 46,422,754 2001 95699 23463 513473 38403 632635 157565 189,157,948 47,112,016 2002 97124 23782 521434 38998 642340 159905 192,059,798 47,811,527 2003 98571 24106 529518 39602 652195 162279 195,006,195 48,521,440 2004 100039 24434 537727 40215 662200 164689 197,997,824 49,241,909 2005 101529 24767 546063 40838 672359 167134 201,035,380 49,973,092 152 1 DECREASE ESTIMATED ESTIMATED LOSS IN ANNUAL IN USER ADDED TOTAL INCREASE 1 RISE TRAFFIC AS A RESULT DEMAND- COSTS KITH ANNUAL GENERATED TRAFFIC DAILY DEMAND . IN TRAFFIC IN COSTS OF 6ENERATED TRAFFIC EXISTING PROJECT WORK OTHER TOTAL TRAFFIC E*6 E TO 6 E+6 WORK OTHER 49883516 0 0 0 0 0 49883516 0 0 0 0 51443428 .0284 468972 448817 917788 3070 52361217 .0175 .0183 307681 294458 33052318 .0148 252839 241972 494811 1655 53547129 .0092 .0142 244155 233661 54711229 .0044 77033 73722 150755 504 54861984 .0027 .0183 322376 308521 56422257 .0211 381956 365541 747497 2500 57169753 .0131 .0176 326758 312715 SB186656 .0437 817298 782173 1599471 5349 59786127 .0268 .0318 610475 584238 60006310 .0383 738892 707136 1446028 4836 61452338 .0235 .0265 522907 500434 61882894 .0398 789905 755958 1545863 5170 63428757 .0244 .0235 478624 458054 6381B082 .0412 843374 807128 1650502 5520 654685B4 .0252 .0205 430950 412429 65813757 .0426 899401 860748 1760149 5887 67573906 .0260 .0175 379715 363396 66743468 .0507 1087585 1040843 2128428 7118 66871895 .0309 .0204 451141 431752 67686364 .0536 1165113 1115039 2280152 7626 69966516 .0326 .0217 487518 466565 68642447 .0565 1244480 1190995 2435475 8145 71077921 .0343 .0231 527214 504556 69612134 .0593 1325724 1268748 2594472 8677 72206605 .0359 .0245 568046 543633 70595425 .0622 1408877 134B327 2757205 9221 73352629 .0376 .0258 607681 581565 71592530 .0650 1493975 1429768 2923743 9778 74516273 .0392 .0271 648426 620559 72603868 .0678 1581059 1513109 3094168 10348 75698036 .0409 .0284 690309 660641 73629438 .0706 1670161 1598382 3268543 10932 76897981 .0425 .0298 735820 704196 74669659 .0735 1761324 1685627 3446952 11528 78116610 .0441 .0311 780089 746563 75724740 .0763 1854587 1774882 3629470 12139 79354210 .0457 .0324 825573 790092 PER UNIT BENEFITS LOST BENEFITS TO EIISTIN6 FROM LOST TRAFFIC TRAFFIC HI6H LOW HI6H LOW 0 0 0 .0747 .0229 44963 13774 .0392 .0116 18721 5536 .0116 .0196 7329 12359 .0561 .0138 35850 8B22 .1167 .0351 139481 41959 .1027 .0305 105121 31185 .1069 .0304 100108 28470 .1111 .0303 93663 25568 .1153 .0302 85655 22471 .1404 .0326 123965 28793 .1489 .0334 142108 31828 .1575 .0341 162545 35195 .1662 .0349 184747 38762 .1749 .0356 207985 42370 .1836 .0364 233041 46182 .1925 .0372 259994 50203 .2013 .0379 289900 54626 .2102 .0387 320957 59100 .2192 .0395 354170 63809 BENEFITS TO BENERATED NET BENEFITS TO TRAFFIC GENERATED TRAFFIC H16H LOW HIGH LOW 0 0 0 0 34267 10497 -10696 -3277 9693 2866 -9028 -2669 876 1477 -6454 -10883 20953 5156 -14897 -3666 93368 26087 -46113 -13872 74270 22033 -30851 -9152 82608 23493 -17501 -4977 91650 25019 -2013 -550 101442 26613 157B7 4142 149423 34707 25459 5913 169811 38033 27703 6203 191843 41539 29297 6344 215584 45232 30837 6470 241101 49117 33116 6746 268463 53201 35422 7020 297741 57492 37747 7289 329007 61995 39107 7369 362337 66719 41380 7619 397808 71671 43638 7862 1 m B e n e f i t s Under V a r i o u s S c e n a r i o s WITHOUT WITH ANNUAL ANNUAL BENEFITS ADJUSTED BENEFITS ADJUSTED PROJECT PROJECT BENEFITS BENEFITS FOR 6ENERATED FOR 6ENERATED ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL INCLUDIN6 INCLUDING TRAFFIC-WITHOUT TRAFFIC-WITH ANNUAL ANNUAL IEFITS BENEFITS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT CONSTRUCTION HAINTENANC ;H LOW COSTS COSTS HI6H LOW HIGH LOW KI6H LOW COSTS COSTS 0 0 2226B91 2226891 0 0 0 0 0 0 26000000 61236 3 , 8 4 1 , 3 8 2 1 176 761 2435970 2335863 3 , 9 4 1 , 4 8 9 1,276 868 3852078 1180038 3952166 1260145 0 61236 2 , 0 7 8 , 5 9 7 614 638 2522367 2449432 2 , 1 3 1 , 5 1 2 687 553 2067625 617307 2160540 690222 15400000 113236 635,t>10 1 071 802 2611628 2529623 717,814 1,154 006 642063 1082684 724268 1164889 23500000 330624 3 , 1 6 3 , 1 3 4 778 372 2704461 2S485B6 3 , 3 1 9 , 0 0 8 934 246 3178031 782038 3333905 937912 23100000 330624 6 , 7 9 3 , 2 0 9 2 043 369 2800381 2564057 7 , 0 2 9 , 3 3 2 2 , 2 7 9 892 6839322 2057441 7075645 2293764 0 330624 6 , 1 6 4 , 0 4 5 1 828 398 2899702 2717166 6 , 3 4 6 , 5 8 1 2,011 134 6194896 1837750 6377431 2020286 28100000 336024 6 , 6 1 3 , 8 0 3 1 880 877 3002345 2841193 6 , 7 7 5 , 1 5 6 2 , 0 4 2 229 6631304 1685654 6792656 2047206 0 336024 7 , 0 8 7 , 4 3 5 1 934 725 3109037 2970882 7 , 2 2 5 , 5 9 0 2 , 0 7 2 680 7089448 1935275 7227603 2073430 0 336024 7 , 5 8 6 , 0 5 6 1 990 193 3219305 3106490 7 , 6 9 8 , 8 7 1 2 , 1 0 3 008 7370269 1986051 7683084 2098866 0 336024 9 , 3 7 1 , 2 6 9 2 176 678 3290092 3220438 9 , 4 4 0 , 9 2 4 2 , 2 4 6 332 9345811 2170764 9415465 2240419 0 336024 1 0 , 0 8 1 , 6 8 2 2 258 01B 3333788 3280615 1 0 , 1 3 4 , 8 5 5 2,311 191 10053979 2251813 10107152 2304986 0 336024 1 0 , 8 1 3 , 9 5 7 2 341 512 3378065 3341917 1 0 , 8 5 0 , 1 0 5 2 , 3 7 7 660 10784659 2335169 10620807 2371317 0 336024 1 1 , 5 6 8 , 6 4 1 2 427 212 3422930 3404364 1 1 , 5 8 7 , 2 0 7 2 , 4 4 5 777 11537804 2420742 11556369 2439307 0 336024 1 2 , 3 4 6 , 2 9 6 2 315 167 3468390 3467979 1 2 , 3 4 6 , 7 0 7 2 , 5 1 5 578 12313179 2508421 12313591 2508832 0 336024 1 3 , 1 4 7 , 4 9 2 2 605 431 3514454 3532782 1 3 , 1 2 9 , 1 6 5 2 , 5 8 7 104 13112070 2598411 13093742 2580084 0 336024 1 3 , 9 7 2 , 8 1 6 2 698 057 3561130 3598795 1 3 , 9 3 5 , 1 5 1 2 , 6 6 0 392 13935069 2690769 13897404 2653104 0 336024 1 4 , 8 2 2 , 8 6 7 2 793 101 3608426 3666043 1 4 , 7 6 5 , 2 5 0 2 , 7 3 5 484 14783760 2785732 14726143 2726115 0 336024 1 5 , 6 9 8 , 2 5 7 2 B90 61B 3656350 3734547 1 5 , 6 2 0 , 0 6 0 2 , 8 1 2 421 15656877 2882998 15578661 2604802 0 336024 1 6 , 5 9 9 , 6 1 2 2 990 665 3704911 3804331 1 6 , 5 0 0 , 1 9 2 2 , 8 9 1 245 16555974 2982803 16456554 2883383 0 336024 NPV OF KPV OF NPV OF ANNUAL ANNUAL BENEFITS ADJUSTED BENEFITS ADJUSTED NPV NPV BENEFITS BENEFITS FOR GENERATED FOR GENERATED ANNUAL ANNUAL INCLUDING INCLUDING TRAFFIC-WITHOUT TRAFFIC-KITH DISCOUNT BENEFITS BENEFITS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT KATE HIGH LOW HI8H LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW -.0500 358584603 77349850 359885562 78650808 3S7955B66 77252005 359256823 78552962 0 172386160 39015992 173513169 40145001 172164219 38992059 17329322B 40121068 .0050 161028701 36632882 162134641 37738B21 160829905 36613026 161935845 37718966 .0100 150556439 3442B2SS 131639070 35510886 150378700 34412086 131461330 35494716 .0150 140B92726 32387023 141931932 33446227 140734150 32374183 141793354 33433387 .0200 131968103 30493486 133003868 31531252 131826964 30485653 132862729 31521419 .0290 123719362 28741202 124731966 29733606 123394296 28734083 124606700 29746487 .0300 116069924 27112838 117079119 28102053 115979108 27108186 116968304 28097381 .0350 109027255 25600161 109993460 26566366 108929595 25597694 109895B01 26563900 .0400 102484355 24193741 103427843 25137228 102398673 24193261 103342160 25136748 .0450 96418296 22885061 97339382 23806147 96343517 22886369 97264603 23807455 .0500 90790006 21666339 91689044 22565378 90725153 21669252 91624192 22568291 .0550 85563901 20530471 86441278 21407848 855060B4 20534826 86385461 21412203 .0600 80707553 19470975 81563677 20327098 60659960 19476622 81516084 20332745 .0650 76191386 18481925 770266B5 19317224 76151276 16488728 769B6575 19324027 .0700 719B8409 17557905 72803326 18372822 71955107 17565740 72770024 18380657 .0750 68073974 16693959 68868964 1748894B 68046865 16702713 68B41B54 17497703 .0800 64425559 15885548 65201081 16661071 64404078 15895120 65179601 16670643 .0850 61022566 15128516 61779087 15865038 61006201 15138612 61762722 15895334 .0900 57846149 14419050 S858413B 15157038 57834431 14429986 58572419 15167974 .0950 54879054 13753652 55598976 14473574 54871552 13765151 55591474 14485073 .1000 52105468 13129112 52807789 13831433 52101793 13141104 52804114 13843425 .1050 49510898 12542478 50196080 13227660 49510691 12554900 50195873 13240082 .1100 47082045 11991040 47750545 12659540 47084978 12003833 4775347B 12672333 .1150 44806702 11472301 45458970 12124569 44812476 11485413 45464745 12137681 .1200 42673654 10983964 43310135 11620445 42681997 10997348 4331847B 11633828 .1250 40672596 10523914 41293725 11145043 40683256 10537526 41304385 11158655 .1300 38794047 10090199 39400253 10696404 38806796 10104000 39413001 10710205 .1350 37029283 9681020 37620984 10272721 37043910 9694974 37635611 10286675 .1400 35370268 9294717 35947874 9872323 35386583 9308792 35964189 9686398 .1450 33809601 8929756 34373512 9493666 33827427 8943922 34391339 9507834 .1500 32340453 858471B 32891061 9135326 32359631 8598949 32910239 9149557 .1550 30956528 8258294 31494213 B795979 30976911 8272566 31514596 8810251 .1600 29652010 7949269 30177144 8474402 29673464 7963560 30198597 8488693 .1650 26421530 7656520 28934473 8169463 2B443931 7670810 28956874 8183754 .1700 27260123 7379006 27761227 7880110 27283360 7393278 27784464 7894382 .1750 26163199 7115762 26652805 7605368 26187168 7130000 26676774 7619607 .1800 25126508 6665892 25604949 7344333 25151115 6880083 25629556 7358523 .1850 24146117 6628566 24613714 7096163 24171277 6642695 24638873 7110292 .1900 23218382 6403011 23675447 6860077 23244015 6417068 23701080 6874133 .1950 22339922 6188510 22786760 6635348 22365958 6202484 22812795 6649322 .2000 21507604 5984396 21944508 6421300 21533977 5998277 21970881 6435161 .3000 172386160 39015992 11533846 3658105 11271593 3381510 11559382 3669300 .4000 172386160 39015992 7128314 2380675 6947862 2188291 7148824 2389233 .5000 172386160 39015992 4909552 1690884 4776110 1550006 4925543 1697438 .6000 172386160 39015992 3638256 1274804 3538174 1167274 3650606 1279905 155 BENEFIT-COST RATIOS DISCOUNT 1 2 3 RATE -.0500 2.307 .498 2.315 0 1.413 .320 1.422 .0050 1.349 .307 1.359 .0100 1.290 .295 1.299 .0150 1.233 .283 1.242 .0200 1.180 .273 1.189 .0250 1.130 .262 1.139 .0300 1.082 .253 1.092 .0350 1.038 .244 1.047 .0400 .995 .235 1.005 .0450 .955 .227 .965 .0500 .918 .219 .927 .0550 .882 .212 .891 .0600 .848 .205 .857 .0650 .816 .198 .825 .0700 .786 .192 .794 .0750 .757 .186 .766 .0800 .730 .180 .738 .0850 .704 .174 .712 .0900 .679 .169 .688 .0950 .656 .164 .664 .1000 .634 .160 .642 .1050 .613 .155 .621 .1100 .593 .151 .601 .1150 .574 .147 .582 .1200 .556 .143 .564 .1250 .538 .139 .547 .1300 .522 .136 .530 .1350 .506 .132 .514 .1400 .492 .129 .500 .1450 .477 .126 .485 .1500 .464 .123 .472 .1550 .451 .120 .459 .1600 .439 .118 .446 .1650 .427 .115 .435 .1700 .416 .113 .423 .1750 .405 .110 .412 .1800 .395 .108 .402 .1850 .385 .106 .392 .1900 .375 .104 .383 .1950 .366 .101 .374 .2000 .358 .100 .365 .3000 .4000 .5000 .6000 4 5 6 7 8 .506 2.303 .497 2.311 .505 .329 1.411 .320 1.420 .329 .316 1.348 .307 1.357 .316 .304 1.288 .295 1.297 .304 .293 1.232 .283 1.241 .293 .282 1.179 .273 1.188 .282 .272 1.129 .262 1.138 .272 .262 1.081 .253 1.091 .262 .253 1.037 .244 1.046 .253 .244 .995 .235 1.004 .244 .236 .955 .227 .964 .236 .228 .917 .219 .926 .228 .221 .881 .212 .890 .221 .214 .847 .205 .856 .214 .207 .816 .198 .824 .207 .200 .785 .192 .794 .201 .194 .756 .186 .765 .195 .189 .729 .180 .738 .189 .183 .703 .175 .712 .183 .178 .679 .169 .688 .178 .173 .656 .164 .664 .173 .168 .634 .160 .642 .168 .164 .613 .155 .621 .164 .159 .593 .151 .601 .160 .155 .574 .147 .582 .155 .151 .556 .143 .564 .151 .148 .539 .139 .547 .148 .144 .522 .136 .530 .144 .140 .507 .133 .515 .141 .137 .492 .129 .500 .137 .134 .478 .126 .486 .134 .131 .464 .123 .472 .131 .128 .451 .121 .459 .128 .125 .439 .118 .447 .126 .123 .427 .115 .435 .123 .120 .416 .113 .424 .120 .118 .405 .110 .413 .118 .115 .395 .108 .403 .116 .113 .385 .106 .393 .113 .111 .376 .104 .383 .111 .109 .367 .102 .374 .109 .107 .358 .100 .363 .107 156 PROJECT CASH FLOWS AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1996 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 1987 3780146 1115525 3880253 1215632 3790842 1118802 3890950 1218909 1988 -13436639 -14900598 -13363724 -14827683 -13427611 -14897929 -13354696 -14825014 1989 -23195014 -22758822 -23112810 -22676618 -23188561 -22747940 -23106356 -22665735 1990 -20267490 -22652252 -20111616 -22496378 -20252593 -22648586 -20096719 -22492712 1991 6462585 1712945 6698908 1949268 6508698 1726817 6745021 1963140 1992 -22271979 -26607426 -22089443 -26424890 -22241128 -26598274 -22058593 -26415738 1993 6277779 1544853 6439132 1706205 6295280 1549830 6456632 1711182 1994 6751411 1598701 6889566 1736856 6753424 1599251 6891579 1737406 1995 7250032 1654169 7362847 1766984 7234245 1650027 7347060 1762842 1996 9035245 1840654 9104900 1910308 9009787 1834740 9079441 1904395 1997 9745658 1921994 9798831 1975167 9717955 1915789 9771128 1968962 1998 10477933 2005488 10514081 2041636 10448635 1999145 10484783 2035293 1999 11232617 2091188 11251183 2109753 11201780 2084718 11220345 2103283 2000 12010272 2179143 12010683 2179554 11977155 2172397 11977567 2172808 2001 12811468 2269407 12793141 2251080 12776046 2262387 12757718 2244060 2002 13636792 2362033 13599127 2324368 13599045 2354745 13561380 2317080 2003 14486843 2457077 14429226 2399460 14447736 2449708 14390119 2392091 2004 15362233 2554594 15284036 2476397 15320853 2546974 15242657 2468778 2005 16263588 2654641 16164168 2555221 16219950 2646779 16120530 2547359 .039 -.119 .041 -.118 .039 -.119 .040 -.119 COST-VOLUME RELATIONSHIP FOR LINKI4 AADT COST 34328 0 2518 0 36687 .0687 2670 .0604 37102 .0808 2704 .0739 37457 .0912 2727 .0830 37880 .1035 2747 .0909 37916 .1045 2847 .1307 38079 .1093 2903 .1529 38930 .1341 2986 .1859 40147 .1695 2971 .1799 40191 .1708 2980 .1835 41448 .2074 3074 .2208 41666 .2138 3269 .2983 42379 .2345 3377 .3411 48716 .4191 4074 .6180 157 VEHICLE VEHICLE TIHE TIHE TOTAL TOTAL ANNUAL ANNUAL 0PERATIN6 OPERATINB COST COST COST COST COST COST COST-AUTO COST-TRUCK HISH LOU HIGH LOW HIGH ION 1986 63137 15994 326025 24373 405156 103504 121,141,629 30,947,820 19B7 65817 16568 341377 25520 423762 107906 126,704,863 32,263,884 1988 67272 16897 349439 26123 433608 110292 129,648,888 32,977,402 1989 68760 17232 357692 26740 443684 112732 132,661,416 33,706,744 1990 70280 17574 366140 27371 453993 115225 135,744,042 34,452,259 1991 71834 17922 374787 2801B 464543 117774 138,898,401 35,214,309 1992 73422 18277 383639 28679 475338 120379 142,126,163 35,993,260 1993 75045 18640 392700 29357 4B6385 123042 145,429,038 36,789,489 1994 76704 19010 401974 30050 497688 125764 148,808,776 37,603,380 1995 78400 19386 411468 30760 509255 128546 152,267,170 38,435,325 1996 79761 19649 420183 31411 519593 130821 155,358,427 39,115,397 1997 80656 19833 425620 31817 526109 132306 157,306,711 39,559,597 1998 81561 20019 431127 32229 532708 133809 159,279,547 40,008,888 1999 82477 20206 436705 32645 539389 135329 161,277,247 40,463,330 2000 83403 20396 442356 33068 546154 136866 163,300,126 40,922,982 2001 84339 20587 448079 33495 553005 138421 165,348,502 41,387,904 2002 85286 20779 453877 33929 559942 139994 167,422,697 41,858,157 2003 86243 20974 459750 34367 566967 141585 169,523,039 42,333,804 2004 87212 21170 465698 34812 574080 143194 171,649,859 42,814,905 2005 88191 21368 471724 35262 581283 144821 173,803,491 43,301,525 VEHICLE VEHICLE TIHE TIHE TOTAL TOTAL ANNUAL ANNUAL 0PERATIN6 0PERATIN6 COST COST COST COST COST COST COST-AUTO COST-TRUCK HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 1986 63137 15994 297563 22423 376695 101555 112,631,749 30,364,818 1987 62861 15959 337172 25171 415992 103991 124,381,519 31,093,421 1988 65556 16595 347482 25874 429633 108025 128,460,287 32,299,470 1989 65465 16598 353466 26921 435529 10B983 130,223,079 32,586,060 1990 68267 17257 360636 26945 446160 112470 133,401,832 33,628,430 1991 66966 17029 357545 26728 441540 110723 132,020,539 33,106,237 1992 69243 17506 370922 27734 457671 114484 136,843,638 34,230,583 1993 71231 17930 382468 28602 471629 117763 141,017,039 35,211,213 1994 73275 18365 394373 29497 486013 121137 145,318,034 36,220,095 1995 75378 18810 406649 30420 500838 124609 149,750,532 37,258,047 1996 76756 19125 411718 30809 507599 126690 151,772,030 37,880,186 1997 77651 19333 415334 31084 512318 12B069 153,183,096 38,292,553 1998 78556 19545 418981 31362 5170B2 129463 154,607,456 38,709,458 1999 79472 19758 422661 31643 521890 130873 156,045,237 39,130,950 2000 80398 19974 426372 31926 526744 132298 157,496,569 39,557,081 2001 81336 20192 430117 32212 531644 133739 158,961,581 39,987,902 2002 82284 20412 433894 32500 536590 135196 160,440,403 40,423,466 2003 83243 20635 437705 32790 541583 136668 161,933,169 40,863,824 2004 84213 20860 441548 33084 546622 138157 163,440,011 41,309,031 2005 85195 21088 445426 33380 551709 139663 164,961,064 41,759,141 158 WITHOUT WITH ANNUAL ANNUAL PROJECT PROJECT BENEFITS BENEFITS ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL INCLUDING INCLUDING BENEFITS BENEFITS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT HI6H LOU COSTS COSTS HI6H LOU 0 0 2226891 2226891 0 2,323 343 1 170,463 2435970 2335B63 2,423 451 1 270 1,186 601 677,933 2522367 2449452 1,261 516 750 2,438 336 1 120,684 2611828 2529623 2,520 541 1 202 2,342 211 823,829 2704461 2548588 2,498 084 979 6,877 862 2 ,108,072 2800381 2564057 7,114 185 2 344 5,282 524 1 ,762,677 2899702 2717166 5,465 060 1 ,945 4,411 999 1 ,578,277 3002545 2841193 4,573 351 1 ,739 3,490 742 1 ,383,285 3109037 2970882 3,628 897 1 ,521 2,516 638 1 ,177,277 3219305 3106490 2,629 453 1 ,290 3,586 397 1 ,235,210 3290092 3220438 .. 3,656 051 1 304 4,123 615 1 267,043 3333788 3280615 4,176 788 1 320 4,672 091 1 ,299,430 3376065 3341917 4,708 239 1 335 5,232 010 1 332,380 3422930 3404364 5,250 575 1 350 5,803 557 1 ,365,901 3468390 3467979 5,803 968 1 366 6,386 921 1 400,002 3514454 3532782 6,368 593 1 381 6,982 294 1 ,434,692 3561130 3598795 6,944 629 1 397 7,589 870 1 469,979 3608426 3666043 7,532 254 1 412 8,209 848 1 ,505,874 3656350 3734547 8,131 651 1 427 8,842 427 1 542,385 3704911 3804331 8,743 007 1 442 BENEFITS ADJUSTED BENEFITS ADJUSTED FOR 6ENERATED FOR GENERATED TRAFFIC-WITHOUT TRAFFIC-WITH ANNUAL ANNUAL ACCIDENT ACCIDENT CONSTRUCTION HAINTENANC HIGH LOU HI6H LOU COSTS COSTS 0 0 0 0 0 26000000 61236 570 2336983 1177334 2437091 1277442 0 61236 648 1195845 682064 1268759 754979 15400000 115236 889 2452619 U2724B 2534824 1209453 23500000 330624 703 2355996 828678 2511869 984551 23100000 330624 396 6912572 2118711 7148895 2355035 0 330624 213 5310856 1772131 5493392 1954667 28100000 336024 629 4436339 1586984 4597691 1748336 0 336024 440 3510645 1391172 3648800 1529327 0 336024 092 2531531 1184245 2644346 1297060 0 336024 865 3607026 1242316 3676661 1311970 0 336024 217 4146808 1274170 4199982 1327343 0 336024 578 4698102 1306665 4734250 1342813 0 336024 945 5260873 1339730 5279438 1358296 0 336024 313 5834945 1373288 5835356 1373700 0 336024 675 6420812 1407431 6402485 1389104 0 336024 027 7018676 1442167 6981011 1404502 0 336024 363 7629230 1477602 7571614 1419966 0 336024 677 8251741 1513558 8173544 1435361 0 336024 965 8886867 1550136 8787447 1450716 0 336024 WV OF NPV OF NPV OF ANNUAL ANNUAL BENEFITS ADJUSTED BENEFITS ADJUSTED NPV NPV BENEFITS BENEFITS FOR GENERATED FOR GENERATED NPV NPV ANNUAL ANNUAL INCLUDIN6 INCLUDING TRAFFIC-NITHOUT TRAFFIC-KITH ANNUAL ANNUAL DISCOUNT BENEFITS BENEFITS ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT ACCIDENT CONST. MINI . RATE HIGH LON HIGH LON HIGH LON HIGH LON COSTS COSTS -.0500 18632B45I 47794296 187621401 41015253 187323183 4B053066 1BB624142 49354023 144273904 11154161 0 923012B5 25655394 93430294 26784403 92798467 25795631 93927476 26924640 116100000 5133116 .0050 86535198 24246668 87641138 25352608 87002536 24371324 B8I08475 25485264 113744695 5601437 .0100 81213755 22938065 82296385 24020696 81651982 23063674 82734613 24146305 111460935 5292581 .0150 76296187 21721348 77355391 22780552 76708237 21840318 77767441 22899603 109246041 5005431 .0200 71748537 20581027 727B4303 21624793 72136362 20701161 73172128 21737735 107097450 473B228 . .0250 67539298 195342B9 68551702 20546693 67904683 11641536 6B9170B7 20653940 105012712 4481355 .0300 63639883 18550127 64629079 19540123 639B4466 1B652B62 64973662 1964205B 102969480 425735? .0330 60024343 17633289 60990549 18599495 60349624 17730262 61315829 1B696468 101025509 4040112 .0400 56669102 16776218 57612589 17719703 56976437 16868553 57919944 17812040 99116649 3838718 .0450 53552725 15975007 54473811 16896093 53843418 16063003 54764503 16964089 97266841 3641108 .0500 S06SS711 15223359 51554750 16124398 50930904 15301212 51829943 16208331 95468112 3473230 .0550 47960306 14523344 4B8376B3 15400720 4B221067 14603469 49098444 15480846 93720372 3307636 .0600 45450335 13B65367 46306458 14721491 45697647 13141921 46553771 14798045 92022409 .3152877 .0650 43111048 13248140 43946347 14083439 43345817 13321342 44181116 14156641 90371886 3007578 .0700 40928992 12668648 41743909 13483565 41152053 1273B699 41966970 13553616 88767339 2871225 .0750 38891860 12124127 39686861 12919116 39104002 12191216 39B9B992 12986206 87207169 2743164 .0800 36988488 11612042 37764011 12387565 37190384 11676344 37965906 12451866 85689644 2622718 j .0850 35208556 11130065 35165078 11886587 35400880 11191742 36157402 11948263 84213894 2501573 L, .0100 33542694 10676058 34280682 II414046 33726054 10735259 34464042 11473248 82777906 2402184 .0950 31962305 10248053 32702227 10967975 32157264 10304920 32877186 11024842 81380527 2302565 .1000 30519516 1844241 31221838 10546562 30686594 9898903 31388913 10601225 80020453 2207686 "L .1050 29147107 1462155 21832281 10148137 21306785 9515535 29991967 10200717 76696437 2118553 .1100 27BSB4S3 1102651 28526953 9771158 28011178 9153270 2B67967B 9821770 77407276 2034201 .1150 26647474 8761937 27219742 9414205 26713661 8B106B5 27445929 9462153 76151816 1154415 .1200 25S085B3 8431482 26145064 9075963 25648617 B486466 26285098 9122946 74928950 1871122 .1250 24436645 8134088 25057774 8755217 24570885 8179399 25192014 6800528 73737610 1807798 .1300 23426936 784463B 24033142 8450844 23555714 7888363 24141920 8414569 72576771 1740257 .1350 22475108 7570102 23066809 8161802 22518734 7612322 23190435 6204022 71445447 1676253 .1400 21577134 7309524 22154760 78B7130 21695917 7350314 22273323 7127120 70342690 1615561 .1450 20729382 7062020 21213214 7625932 20843550 7101452 21407462 7665363 69267587 1557968 .1500 19928386 6B26771 20478114 7377379 20038211 6864911 20588819 7415511 68219260 1503282 j .1550 19171024 660301B 11708701 7140703 19276739 663992B 19B14424 717761* 67196B63 1451320 .1600 18454391 6310054 1B979324 6915188 18556215 6425794 19081349 695092B 66I995B3 1401915 .1650 17775804 6197226 182B8747 6700170 17873943 6221850 183B68B6 6734794 65226634 1354911 .1700 171327B3 5113125 17633887 6415021 17227426 6027485 I772B330 6528589 64277263 1310164 .1750 16523030 5801585 17012636 6211111 16614358 5842130 17103964 6331736 63350741 1267537 . . .1800 15144420 5633671 16422860 6112119 16032591 5665255 16511039 6143695 62446369 1226907 .1850 15394981 5465717 15862577 5133313 15480161 5496367 15947765 5963963 61563470 1188156 .1700 14B72887 5305242 15329152 5762308 14155231 5335007 15412296 5792073 60701393 1151176 . m o 14376443 515182? 14B232B1 '5518666 14456081 5180748 14902919 5627585 59651511 1115864 .2000 13904075 5005080 14340179 5441984 13981137 503318B 14418041 5470092 59037217 1082127 .3000 7844211 3038231 8132001 3326021 7888091 3055449 8175B81 3343231 45137257 635256 .4000 5057111 2051855 5258053 2260797 5065614 2071604 52B6S56 2272546 37261614 416112 .5000 3551182 1501280 3698614 1648712 3571327 1509892 3718759 1657325 31224874 218655 .6000 26432B4 1150517 2755115 1263149 265B363 115714? 2770995 1261781 26845375 225346 160 BENEFIT-COST RATIOS DISCOUNT 1 2 3 RATE -.0500 1.199 .308 1.207 0 .756 .210 .766 .0050 .725 .203 .734 .0100 .696 .196 .705 .0150 .668 .190 .677 .0200 .642 .184 .651 .0250 .617 .178 .626 .0300 .593 .173 .603 .0350 .571 .168 .580 .0400 .550 .163 .560 .0450 .531 .158 .540 .0500 .512 .154 .521 .0550 .494 .150 .503 .0600 .478 .146 .487 .0650 .462 .142 .471 .0700 .447 .138 .456 .0750 .432 .135 .441 .0800 .419 .131 .428 .0850 .406 .128 .415 .0900 .394 .125 .402 .0950 .382 .122 .391 .1000 .371 .120 .380 .1050 .361 .117 .369 .1100 .351 .115 .359 .1150 .341 .112 .350 .1200 .332 .110 .340 .1250 .323 .108 .332 .1300 .315 .106 .323 .1350 .307 .104 .315 .1400 .300 .102 .308 .1450 .293 .100 .301 .1500 .286 .098 .294 .1550 .279 .096 .287 .1600 .273 .095 .281 .1650 .267 .093 .275 .1700 .261 .091 .269 .1750 .256 .090 .263 .1800 .250 .088 .258 . 1850 .245 .087 .253 .1900 .240 .086 .248 .1950 .236 .084 .243 .2000 .231 .083 .239 4 5 6 7 8 .316 1.205 .309 1.214 .318 .219 .760 .211 .770 .221 .212 .729 .204 .738 .214 .206 .699 .198 .709 .207 .199 .671 .191 .681 .200 .193 .645 .185 .654 .194 .188 .620 .179 .629 .189 .182 .597 .174 .606 .183 .177 .574 .169 .564 .178 .172 .553 .164 .563 .173 .167 .534 .159 .543 .168 .163 .515 .155 .524 .164 .159 .497 .151 .506 .160 .155 .480 .146 .489 .155 .151 .464 .143 .473 .152 .147 .449 .139 .458 .148 .144 .435 .136 .444 .144 .140 .421 .132 .430 .141 .137 .408 .129 .417 .138 .134 .396 .126 .405 .135 .131 .384 .123 .393 .132 .128 .373 .120 .362 .129 .126 .363 .118 .371 .126 .123 .353 .115 .361 .124 .121 .343 .113 .351 .121 .118 .334 .110 .342 .119 .116 .325 .108 .333 .116 .114 .317 .106 .325 .114 .112 .309 .104 .317 .112 .110 .302 .102 .310 .110 .108 .294 .100 .302 .108 .106 .287 .098 .295 .106 .104 .281 .097 .289 .105 .102 .274 .095 .282 .103 .101 .268 .093 .276 .101 .099 .263 .092 .270 ,100 .097 .257 .090 .265 .098 .096 .252 .089 .259 .096 .095 .247 .088 .254 .095 .093 .242 .086 .249 .094 .092 .237 .085 .244 .092 .091 .233 .084 .240 .091 161 PROJECT CASH FLOWS AND INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1986 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 -26061236 1987 2262107 1109227 2362215 1209334 2275747 1116098 2375655 1216206 1988 -14326635 -14837303 -14253720 -14764388 -14319391 -14833172 -14246477 -14760257 1989 -21392288 -22709940 -21310083 -22627735 -21378005 -22703376 -21295800 -22621171 1990 -21088413 -22606795 -20932540 -22450921 -21074628 -22601946 -20918755 -22446073 1991 6547238 177744B 6783561 2013772 6581948 1788087 6818271 2024411 1992 -23153500 -26673347 -22970964 -26490811 -23125168 -26663893 -22942632 -26481357 1993 4075975 1242253 4237327 1403605 4100315 1250960 4261667 1412312 1994 315471B 1047261 3292B73 1185416 3174621 1055148 3312776 1193303 1995 2180614 841253 2293429 954068 2195507 848221 2308322 961036 1996 3250373 899186 3320027 968841 3271002 906292 3340657 975946 1997 3787591 931019 3840764 984193 3810784 936146 3863958 991319 1998 4336067 963406 4372215 999554 436207B 970641 4398226 1006789 1999 4895986 996356 '4914551 1014921 4924849 1003706 4943414 1022272 2000 5467533 1029877 5467944 1030289 5498921 1037264 5499332 1037676 2001 6050897 1063978 6032569 1045651 6084788 1071407 6066461 1053080 2002 6646270 1098668 6608605 1061003 6682652 1106143 6644987 1068476 2003 7253846 1133955 7196230 1076339 7293206 1141578 7235590 1083962 2004 7873824 1169850 7795627 1091653 7915717 1177534 7837520 1099337 2005 8506403 1206361 8406983 1106941 8550843 1214112 8451423 1114692 -.031 -.173 -.030 -.174 -.031 -.172 -.030 -.174 

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