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An Alternative approach to regional planning : a carrying-capacity framework for achieving a viable region Inoue, Yūichi 1986

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AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO REGIONAL PLANNING: A CARRYING-CAPACITY  FRAMEWORK FOR ACHIEVING A VIABLE REGION  by YUICHI INOUE B.A., Kyoto University, 1979  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS  in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (School of Community and Regional Planning)  We accept this thesis as conforming to the required  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA December 1986 ( c ) Yuichi Inoue, 1986  In  presenting  degree  at  this  the  thesis  in  University of  partial  fulfilment  of  of  department publication  this or of  thesis for by  his  or  that the  her  representatives.  It  this thesis for financial gain shall not  Department The University of British Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3  for  an advanced  Library shall make  it  agree that permission for extensive  scholarly purposes may be  permission.  Date  requirements  British Columbia, I agree  freely available for reference and study. I further copying  the  is  granted  by the  understood  that  head  of  copying  my or  be allowed without my written  Ii  ABSTRACT  The purpose of t h i s thesis i s to develop an a l t e r n a t i v e approach to regional planning based on the concept of carrying capacity. I assume that the r e l a t i o n s h i p between human society and i t s e c o l o g i c a l resource base has s u b s t a n t i a l l y changed because of the unprecedented economic expansion subsidized by f o s s i l f u e l and consequently we can no longer behave as i f the natural environment had unlimited c a p a b i l i t y t o accommodate human economic a c t i v i t y .  In t h i s s i t u a t i o n , i n order to ensure  the long-term welfare of regional residents, i t i s necessary t o improve the v i a b i l i t y of a region by restructuring i t s economy i n such a way as to promote regional economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e and ensure sensible natural resource management.  E f f o r t s should be made to achieve a s e l f - r e l i a n t economy using  regional resources on a sustainable basis.  The concept of carrying  capacity, which i s an e x p l i c i t representation  of l i m i t s to growth, can  provide a valuable framework for these e f f o r t s .  I propose a conceptual  framework of carrying capacity, where four v a r i a b l e s a r e incorporated.  They  are [ l ] natural c a p a b i l i t y , [2] human intervention, [3] material standard of l i v i n g , and [4] i n t e r r e g i o n a l transfer of commodities. The exploration of t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e approach to regional involves four steps.  planning  F i r s t , I examine the present nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p  paying s p e c i a l attention to the p r e v a i l i n g assumption about the natural environment and the r o l e of f o s s i l f u e l i n i n d u s t r i a l society.  Second, I  consider what the v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy i s and how i t can be improved under the circumstances c l a r i f i e d i n the preceding step.  Third, I  examine the meaning of carrying capacity c r i t i c i z i n g the e x i s t i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s , and develop a carrying-capacity framework that can help achieve a v i a b l e region.  Fourth, I describe how the proposed framework  be applied to the efforts to design a mode of production and consumption that i s compatible with a viable region.  iv  TABLE OF CONTENTS  Abstract  i i  Table of Contents  iv  L i s t of Figures  vi  Acknowledgement  vii  I  Introduction  1  (1) Purpose  1  (2) Premise, Problem and Argument  2  (3) Structure  4  II  Entering a New Domain  8  (1) Introduction  8  (2) The Myths of E c o l o g i c a l S t a b i l i t y  9  (3) Industrial Society and F o s s i l Fuel  21  (4) The Mentality of Industrialism and Regional  III  Planning  V i a b i l i t y of a Regional Economy  28  39  (1) Introduction  39  (2) Concepts f o r a Viable Regional Economy  40  (3) Slocan Valley Community Forest Management Project  52  (4) Viewpoint of a Local Community  60  V  IV  The Concept of Carrying Capacity  73  (1) Introduction  73  (2) Concept i n Bioecology  74  (3) Applications to Planning  76  (4) Limitations of Current Applications  78  (5) Proposed D e f i n i t i o n and Framework  85  V  Synthesis  90  (1) Introduction  90  (2) The Region as the Subject of Regional Planning  90  (3) A New Application of Carrying Capacity  97  VI  Conclusion  112  (1) Summary  112  (2) Significance of the Proposed Framework  115  (3) Direction of Further Study  120  Notes  124  References  139  LIST OF FIGURES  Figure 1  Myth #1 Nature Benign  11  Figure 2  Myth #2 Nature Ephemeral  11  Figure 3  Myth #3 Nature Perverse/Tolerant  13  Figure 4  Myth #4 Nature R e s i l i e n t  15  Figure 5  Nature Benign (#1) and Nature Perverse/Tolerant  Figure 6  The V a l i d i t y of the Myth of Nature Benign  18  Figure 7  Human Impact on the Persistence of an Ecological System  20  Figure 8  Components of a Viable Economy  67  Figure 9  Recommendations and Intended Objectives  70  Figure 10  Subregional Levels f o r the Carrying-Capacity Analysis  98  Figure 11  Region as a Nested System  99  Figure 12  Natural C a p a b i l i t i e s to Supply Resources and Receive Wastes ..104  Figure 13  Human A c t i v i t y as Part of Ecological Cycles  (#3)  17  104  vii  ACKNOWLEDGEMENT  This thesis i s dedicated to my parents, Satoru and Yoko Inoue, who have encouraged me to keep on studying the relationship between nature and humankind. I would l i k e to express my sincere appreciation to Prof. Brahm Wiesman, Prof. William E. Rees and Prof. Norman Dale for their guidance, assistance and warm encouragement throughout the course of this work. I am also grateful to my friends at U. B. C ,  without whom my l i f e i n  B r i t i s h Columbia would have been f a r less f r u i t f u l and enjoyable.  Ken  Leghorn and other fellow students i n the School of Community and Regional Planning were always ready with valuable advice and assistance. A s p e c i a l thanks i s expressed to Scott Lawrance and Norman Marcy, who  introduced me  various aspects of the land and people of B r i t i s h Columbia and i n s p i r e d  me  i n many ways. My sincere gratitude i s also expressed to Mrs. O l i v e Cuthbert and other people i n the community of Vancouver, who always encouraged and me.  I t r u l y appreciate their friendship. F i n a l l y , thank you very much, Masa.  supported  1  CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION  (1)  Purpose The purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s to develop a resourse-based  regional planning using the concept of carrying capacity.  approach to  On the assumption  that the c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment to accommodate humankind i s limited, I define a conceptual and consumption compatible  framework that proposes a mode of production  with e c o l o g i c a l imperatives i n the long run.  I  also describe the linkage between ecology and economy from the perspective of regional residents, arguing that establishing an e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable economy i s the only p o s s i b l e way  to achieve a viable region.  A v i a b l e region i s a key concept i n this thesis, and i s defined as a region where a standard of l i v i n g acceptable to the inhabitants i s ensured i n the long run despite extraregional economic fluctuations such as abrupt changes i n the p r i c e or quantity of goods traded i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l markets. If the mission of regional planning includes ensuring the long-term welfare of community residents, i t should be regarded as a major goal of regional planning to achieve a v i a b l e region.  The concept of carrying capacity i s  associated with a v i a b l e region i n that the former can provide a useful framework for the e f f o r t s to achieve the l a t t e r . The exploration of t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e approach to regional planning  takes  the following steps: [1] to describe the present r e l a t i o n s h i p between society and i t s e c o l o g i c a l resource base, c l a r i f y i n g major assumptions  underpinning  2  the p r e v a i l i n g mode of human a c t i v i t y ; [2] to consider the meaning of the v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy within the context of the present r e l a t i o n s h i p between humankind and the natural environment; [3] to examine the meaning of carrying capacity reviewing e x i s t i n g applications i n planning, and to develop a framework that has a potential to help achieve a v i a b l e region; and [4] to synthesize the argument i n the thesis, and show how the proposed carrying-capacity concept can be applied to the e f f o r t s to design a mode of economy consistent with the concept of a v i a b l e region. These four steps are the major purposes of Chapters I I , I I I , IV and V, respectively.  (2)  Premise, Problem and Argument  The statements of Premise, Problem and Argument are as follows:  Premise: Because of the unprecedented scale of their impact on the natural environment, human beings can no longer assume that i t has unlimited c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate human a c t i v i t y .  In i n d u s t r i a l countries,  i t i s often the case that even the present mode of production and consumption, to say nothing of future growth, i s e c o l o g i c a l l y unsustainable.  3  Problem: Regional development, i n much of the l i t e r a t u r e , i s regarded as synonymous with i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , which assumes that the ecological resource base i s p r a c t i c a l l y l i m i t l e s s .  I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n the  name of regional development has been achieved with heavy subsidization by f o s s i l fuel and with l i t t l e regard to inherent regional e c o l o g i c a l properties. This approach, which cannot be sustained i n the long run, w i l l f a i l to achieve a v i a b l e region, that i s , w i l l not serve the long-term welfare of a region.  Argument: The p o l i c y of constant economic growth, which i s based on urban i n d u s t r i a l i s m , r e s u l t s i n an unacceptable worsening of environmental p o l l u t i o n and resource depletion both inside and outside a region. This approach usually makes a regional economy dependent f o r both imports and exports on a larger extraregional economy and thereby makes i t vulnerable to economic fluctuations outside the region. For these two reasons, the current dominant approach to regional development i s not compatible with the long-term welfare of a region. An a l t e r n a t i v e approach, which e x p l i c i t l y takes ecological imperatives and regional s e l f - r e l i a n c e into account, should be explored.  The concept of carrying capacity can provide a useful  resource-based  (supply-based) framework for this exploration.  4  (3)  Structure  The exploration of an a l t e r n a t i v e approach to regional planning involves four major steps discussed i n Chapters I I , I I I , IV and V.  The  purpose of Chapter II i s to j u s t i f y the above premise by describing my understanding of the present nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p and presenting my c r i t i c i s m ' of the t r a d i t i o n a l assumption that the natural environment has unlimited c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate human economic a c t i v i t y . that the nature-human relationship has entered a new  I emphasize  stage where this  t r a d i t i o n a l assumption threatens the long-term welfare of humankind.  When  the human impact on the biophysical environment was r e l a t i v e l y small, this assumption may have provided humankind with useful guidance for their behaviour.  However, the unprecedented expansion of human economic  activity  i n this century has fundamentally changed the agelong nature-human relationship and has thereby made the assumption obsolete.  Today even large  ecosystems on the planet can be severely affected by human a c t i v i t y , and adverse human impact on nature has become apparent i n form of environmental p o l l u t i o n and resource depletion unique to the l a t e twentieth century. I begin Chapter II by b r i e f l y reviewing the d e s c r i p t i o n of society's "myths" about nature (Holling: 1978), which helps c l a r i f y the change that has happened i n the nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p .  I then look at evidence  supporting the premise of t h i s thesis and attempt to c l a r i f y the character of urban industrialism examining the unique r o l e of f o s s i l f u e l i n i n d u s t r i a l society.  I conclude Chapter II c r i t i c i z i n g the mentality of  industrialism to which regional planning has been more or less geared since World War  I I . The two concepts, economic development  and e f f i c i e n c y , are  examined because these concepts c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y incorporate this mentality.  5  Chapter III considers what i s meant by " v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy" and how well-being  a regional economy should be restructured to achieve the  of the region i n the long run, when the assumption of an  unlimited c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment i s no longer v a l i d .  In t h i s  consideration, the perspective of the regional inhabitants i s emphasized. This i s because i n my view the welfare of the regional population have p r i o r i t y i n regional  should  planning.  In t h i s chapter, I attempt to c l a r i f y several concepts concerning a v i a b l e regional economy such as economic development, s e l f - r e l i a n c e , sustainable resource u t i l i z a t i o n and restructure planning.  After t h i s , I  summarize the report prepared by Slocan Valley Community Forest Management Project i n order to look at what kind of economy was desirable by the project s t a f f , who  considered most  were aware of the change i n the nature-  human r e l a t i o n s h i p and emphasized the inhabitants' perspective.  I then  describe the linkage between my concepts and the Slocan case, emphasizing the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the viewpoint of a l o c a l community.  I also consider  how  the v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy i s dependent upon economic s e l f r e l i a n c e , and how regional  the economy i s linked with ecology i n the interest of the  population.  The purpose of Chapter IV i s to explore the meaning of carrying capacity and to develop an alternative framework for regional planning the basis of t h i s concept. representation environment.  on  The concept of carrying capacity i s an e x p l i c i t  of the l i m i t s to population growth given by the natural It can provide appropriate  guidance for human behaviour  assuming that the premise of a self-sustaining regional economy i s v a l i d . However, the concept of carrying capacity as introduced  i n bioecology  cannot  6  be r e a d i l y applied to regional planning,  because such variables as  technology, l e v e l of l i v i n g and i n t e r r e g i o n a l transfer of commodities must be incorporated  when i t i s applied to human society.  I begin Chapter IV by reviewing the carrying-capacity concept i n bioecology.  I then move on to assessing e x i s t i n g applications to urban and  regional development planning.  My c r i t i c i s m of these applications i s that  the meanings of technology and i n t e r r e g i o n a l flows of commodities are not appropriately evaluated study areas.  i n r e l a t i o n to the e c o l o g i c a l resource base of the  As a result the primary message of carrying capacity, that i s ,  l i m i t s given by nature, i s l e f t dormant and f a i l s to r e a l i z e i t s i n t r i n s i c meaning.  Based on this c r i t i c i s m , the f i n a l section looks at major  variables of carrying capacity as applied to humankind, and proposes the concept of "enhanced carrying capacity," where human intervention i n the natural environment, material standard of l i v i n g and interregional flow of commodities are e x p l i c i t l y  incorporated.  Chapter V i s the f i n a l step i n exploring the a l t e r n a t i v e framework for regional planning based on the concept of carrying capacity. chapter, I attempt to synthesize  the preceding argument.  how the framework of carrying capacity  In this  That i s , I look at  (proposed i n Chapter IV) works i n the  e f f o r t to design a mode of production  and consumption compatible with a  viable regional economy (as described  i n Chapter III) on the premise that we  can no longer assume an i n f i n i t e c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment (as discussed  i n Chapter I I ) .  In Chapter V, I consider appropriate  the d e f i n i t i o n of a region which i s  for the proposed carrying-capacity  studies, and describe how the  carrying-capacity framework can be applied to i t . I advocate a region which  7  i s determined by i t s ecological properties, including i t s human community. I a l s o emphasize the nested structure of a region and suggest applying the carrying-capacity analysis to several l e v e l s , between a huge area that can be defined by the broadest d i s t r i b u t i o n of ecological properties and a small area where the inhabitants' i d e n t i t y can be manifest.  I then move to  describing six major stages of a regional economic study employing the proposed framework of carrying capacity.  These stages are expected to  r e s u l t i n a normative image of a regional economy, which i s consistent with a v i a b l e region, where the long-term welfare of regional inhabitants i s ensured.  F i n a l l y , Chapter VI summarizes the argument i n t h i s t h e s i s .  Following  the summary, I consider the significance of the proposed framework of carrying capacity and emphasize i t s educational society.  The concluding  r o l e i n present i n d u s t r i a l  section of t h i s chapter suggests a d i r e c t i o n for  further study involving the experimental a p p l i c a t i o n of the proposed framework to a s p e c i f i c region for the purpose of ascertaining i t s strengths and weaknesses i n practice.  8  CHAPTER II ENTERING A NEW DOMAIN  (1)  Introduction  The purpose of this chapter i s to c l a r i f y the relationship between human society and the natural environment i n the late twentieth century, and to assess the relevance of the t r a d i t i o n a l assumption of unlimited environmental examination  capacity to the present nature-human relationship.  This  i s necessary i n order to i d e n t i f y an appropriate approach to  regional planning for the present and the near future. F i r s t , C.S. Holling's d e s c r i p t i o n of s o c i a l "myths" concerning ecological s t a b i l i t y i s b r i e f l y reviewed.  Two of these myths provide a  valuable framework for understanding why the i m p l i c i t assumption of unlimited ecological c a p a b i l i t y i s no longer appropriate. at the character of i n d u s t r i a l society.  Secondly, I look  P a r t i c u l a r attention i s paid to the  unique r o l e of f o s s i l f u e l i n i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , because f o s s i l f u e l , e s p e c i a l l y petroleum, makes the current economic mode possible.  I conclude  that i n d u s t r i a l society has passed a p a r t i c u l a r threshold and has entered a new domain where assumptions d i f f e r e n t from the currently dominant ones are necessary to cope with the management of the natural environment.  Finally,  I consider the implications of "entering a new domain" for regional planning.  Examining the usual connotations of economic development and  e f f i c i e n c y , I argue that planning p r a c t i c e based on a growth-oriented mentality cannot be environmentally sustained, and consequently w i l l f a i l to serve regional well-being i n the long run.  9  (2)  The Myths of Ecological S t a b i l i t y  Holling (1978) describes four models, or "myths," concerning the nature of ecological systems, two of which p a r t i c u l a r l y reveal why the i m p l i c i t assumption of i n f i n i t e natural capacity can no longer trusted i n . assumption underlies urban i n d u s t r i a l i s m .  This  Holling states that " [ p ] o l i c y  analysis i n a world constantly threatened by c r i s e s resorts to myths [ b e l i e f s ] concerning the nature of t h i s world," that i s , the function of these myths i s to "provide guidance for man's actions and protect him from the r e a l i t y of the frightening unknown."  According to Holling, "[m]yths are  a way i n which mankind captures some essence of experience or wisdom i n a simple and elegant form," and "are only a p a r t i a l representation of reality."  Each myth offers "a d i f f e r e n t guidance for c r i s i s prevention,"  and the four myths he describes "imply d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y postures." understand  1  I  that p o l i c y i s formulated within the framework of a p a r t i c u l a r  myth, or a set of b e l i e f s , and the gap between r e a l i t y and the myth appears i n the form of surprises and sometimes p o l i c y f a i l u r e s .  When the gap i s too  large, the myth can no longer provide appropriate s o c i e t a l guidance.  We  then have to find an alternative. According to Holling, the study of ecosystems or renewable resource systems reveals the following four basic myths: [ l ] Nature Benign, [2] Nature Ephemeral, [3] Nature Perverse/Tolerant and [4] Nature R e s i l i e n t .  2  [1] Nature Benign The f i r s t myth i s that of s t a b i l i t y and "represents a benign and i n f i n i t e l y f o r g i v i n g Nature.  T r i a l s and mistakes of any scale can be made i n t h i s  world and the system w i l l recover once the disturbance i s removed."  Holling  describes an image of a system of t h i s type as "a surface with a v a l l e y  10  shaped l i k e a bowl, [which i s i n f i n i t e l y large,] within which a b a l l moved p a r t i a l l y as a consequence of i t s own acceleration and d i r e c t i o n and p a r t i a l l y as a consequence of the forces exerted by the bowl and by gravity."  3  In t h i s analogy, the b a l l represents a system variable, and the  surface of the bowl represents movement of the v a r i a b l e .  the character of a system to control the  I understand t h i s myth as shown i n Figure 1.  variable i n the system has only one point of equilibrium.  A  Even though a  disturbance deviates the v a r i a b l e from i t s equilibrium, negative feedback i s activated and the v a r i a b l e i s pushed back to i t s equilibrium when the disturbance  i s removed or comes to an end.  This feedback works without  exception, regardless of how f a r the v a r i a b l e i s displaced from i t s equilibrium.  Humankind has often operated as i f nature behaved this  way.  [2] Nature Ephemeral The second myth, opposing to the f i r s t , i s that of i n s t a b i l i t y and represents an unstable  system that could e a s i l y collapse.  In this myth,  Holling writes, "the imagined surface i s now dominated by a smoothly convex h i l l rather than a bowl" and "[t]he top of the h i l l represents an  unstable  equilibrium for i f the b a l l i s only s l i g h t l y displaced from this point, i t w i l l r o l l away."*  This image may be drawn as shown i n Figure 2.  When the  variable, the b a l l , deviates from equilibrium, p o s i t i v e feedback i s activated and the v a r i a b l e w i l l be pushed away and never return to i t s original position. [3] Nature  Perverse/Tolerant  The t h i r d myth represents  a m u l t i - e q u i l i b r i a structure.  While i n some  ranges the system may behave as Nature Benign suggests, elsewhere i t may behave i n a t o t a l l y d i f f e r e n t fashion. feature of t h i s myth as follows:  Holling describes the dominant  Figure 1  Myth fl 1 N a t u r e B e n i g n  Figure 2  Myth # 2 Nature Ephemeral  the system 4—i  Q)  <  «—i  0  t—I  i  i — ^ — i — i — t — ' — « — < — > — *  Scale of the v a r i a b l e  (j) '—^  ?  12  Each equilibrium state or attractor [which i s represented by the bottom of the basin i n the myth of Nature Benign] i s separated from i t s neighbours so that two or more basins of attraction or domains of s t a b i l i t y are formed. As long as variables remain within one basin of a t t r a c t i o n they w i l l tend to the same a t t r a c t o r . I f , however, v a r i a b l e s happen to be close to the boundaries of these basins, then an incremental disturbance could s h i f t the v a r i a b l e s i n t o another basin, thereby causing r a d i c a l l y altered behaviour [of the system]. 5  An analogy for this myth would be "a mesa with a depression at i t s top."  6  The b a l l again represents a v a r i a b l e i n the system, and the surface of the mesa represents the system's character which determines  the movement of the  ball. As long as the b a l l i s i n the depression, the system appears q u a l i t a t i v e l y stable. If the b a l l i s tipped over the edge of the mesa i t w i l l move to a d i f f e r e n t p o s i t i o n , one of which could well represent extinction [of the system]. 7  I understand the character of the world of Nature Perverse/Tolerant as shown i n Figure 3.  In t h i s type of the world, the meaning of "boundary" i s most  important because i t may be where the system changes i t s behaviour drastically.  The threshold e f f e c t , the phenomenon that a discontinuous  change i s triggered when a v a r i a b l e has passed a c e r t a i n boundary, i s well explained by the myth of Nature Perverse/Tolerant.  This myth suggests that  a sudden breakdown i s possible even to a system that has appeared q u a l i t a t i v e l y stable.  One example may  be a system of a f i s h stock.  Even  though a particular stock has t r a d i t i o n a l l y behaved as the myth of Nature Benign suggests, that i s , the stock quickly recovers to i t s o r i g i n a l size no matter how much of the population i s harvested, i t i s p o s s i b l e that the stock suddenly becomes extinct when the harvest exceeds a p a r t i c u l a r amount, or some unexpected environmental  shock occurs.  [4] Nature Resilient The f i n a l myth represents a system characterized by " r e s i l i e n c e " , which i s  13  F i g u r e 3 ' Myth # 3  Nature  Perverse/Tolerant  boundary  could be e x t i n c t i o n of the system  Scale of the v a r i a b l e  14  defined as "a property that allows a system to absorb and u t i l i z e (or even benefit from) change."  The myth " e x p l i c i t l y recognizes the unknown and the  a b i l i t y to survive and benefit from ' f a i l u r e s . ' "  The myth of Nature  8  R e s i l i e n t suggests that a system i t s e l f evolves and s t a b i l i t y boundaries, which have been introduced i n the myth of Nature Perverse/Tolerant, fluctuate i n response to the changes the system experiences. This myth may be interpreted as shown i n Figure 4.  It describes an evolution of the  system, which r e s u l t s i n s h i f t s of s t a b i l i t y boundaries. These s h i f t s are caused by experience of the system, that i s , they are i n a sense a r e s u l t of the system's "learning."  When a variable i s frequently f l i p p e d over one of  the boundaries and consequently the system i s forced to repeatedly undergo an unpleasant experience, the system may evolve to s h i f t the boundary i n order to meet the same kind of accident i n future.  On the other hand, the  system can "forget" the existence of another boundary i f the v a r i a b l e i s successfully kept away from i t for a long time.  This may result i n losing  part of the t r a d i t i o n a l tolerance zone, and causing an unexpected surprise which contradicts the h i s t o r i c a l behaviour of the system.  The myth of  Nature R e s i l i e n t can be dangerous because i t implies the p o s s i b i l i t y for human beings to control an ecosystem so that the system w i l l evolve to become b e n e f i c i a l to human purposes, as for example a human body becomes able to manage an extra load by t r a i n i n g .  Some people may want to t r y to  determine how the boundaries of a given ecosystem fluctuate for the purpose of human manipulation of renewable resource systems.  If their experiment i s  conducted i n an e x i s t i n g ecosystem (for example, a f i s h stock) by c o n t r o l l i n g the impact on the ecosystem, their t r i a l can result i n an expensive error (for example,  the depletion of the f i s h stock), which a  l o c a l or regional community cannot a f f o r d .  I therefore believe i t dangerous  15 Figure 4  Myth # 4  Nature R e s i l i e n t  boundary s h i f t  boundary s h i f t  stable  t  l e s s desirable stable equilibrium  loss'of i i  traditional stable equilibrium  gain of tolerance  tolerance i • former tolerance i I  i  zone  new tolerance -t—i—i—i—-+-  equilibrium  O' •  -0  • '' O 0) «  zone 0  Scale of the v a r i a b l e  16  to interpret this myth as encouraging human manipulation of s t a b i l i t y boundaries of ecosystems.  Instead, I understand the myth of Nature  Resilient to underscore the d i f f i c u l t y for humans to determine the location of s t a b i l i t y boundaries of ecosystems for management purposes.  When applied  to human systems such as economic and p o l i t i c a l systems, the myth of Nature Resilient can inform the argument about the a b i l i t y of a system to survive disturbances including unexpected ones.  Using t h i s myth as a framework, we  may develop an image of systems with " r e s i l i e n c e , " or of systems "viable" i n the world of the unknown.  We can study what property allows a human system  to survive unhappy surprises and further improve i t s a b i l i t y to p e r s i s t by learning a lesson from them. According to Holling, the myth of Nature Benign, underlying much of the presumption of economics, has been pervasive i n human thought,  9  but "[t]he  burden of evidence suggests that the m u l t i - e q u i l i b r i a world of Nature Perverse/Tolerant i s common—and not only for e c o l o g i c a l systems."  10  The  comparison of these two myths helps c l a r i f y my argument about change i n the nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p .  It should be noted that the world of Nature  Benign can be interpreted as part of the world of Nature Perverse/Tolerant, as shown i n Figure 5. the  When i t i s impossible for the v a r i a b l e , the b a l l i n  figure, to go beyond any s t a b i l i t y boundaries i n the world of Nature  Perverse/Tolerant, the world can be safely regarded as i d e n t i c a l with that of Nature Benign.  My argument i s that the unprecedented expansion of human  economic a c t i v i t y has extensively undermined the v a l i d i t y of the myth of Nature Benign by expanding the range of possible f l u c t u a t i o n of variables i n ecological systems, as shown i n Figure 6.  Consequently, i f Nature  Perverse/Tolerant i s a more r e a l i s t i c myth, the currently p r e v a i l i n g assumption of i n f i n i t e natural capacity (Nature Benign) becomes a p o s i t i v e  Figure 5 Nature Benign ( # l ) and Nature Perverse/Tolerant (4t-3)  The World of Nature Perverse/Tolerant  18 Figure 6 The V a l i d i t y of the Myth of Nature Benign  The p r e - i n d u s t r i a l world, where Nature Benign was v a l i d  I j  traditional stable equilibrium  l  K  * range of possible f l u c t u a t i o n s of the v a r i a b l e — *  « —  <—  < » O'— — — Q) *—•—* 0 *—Q> .-*•>, 1  1  11  The present world, where Nature Benign i s no longer v a l i d  the range expanded by the increased  <  <srQ.—i  ~y  0'  1  »  1  1  O  <-  1  1  *—>  human impact on the n a t u r a l environment —^  CD * » O —• 0 1  1  1  1  'Q  1  >  19  hazard to our continued existence. For example, coastal towns i n Japan such as T a i j i , Tsuro and Kubotsu have a long whaling h i s t o r y .  I t was recorded i n l i t e r a t u r e that a whalers'  cooperative composed of f i v e squads was organized at T a i j i i n 1606, and this system lasted u n t i l the l a t e nineteenth c e n t u r y .  11  U n t i l the early  twentieth century, people caught gray, right and other smaller whales with such p r e - i n d u s t r i a l technology as small open boats, whaling nets and handheld harpoons.  When people found spouts, they put out boats and attacked  whales that happened to be near the v i l l a g e .  If a c e r t a i n whale stock  1 2  behaves as the model of Nature Perverse/Tolerant suggests as shown i n Figure 7 and i f the best possible human e f f o r t to harvest whales with this p r e - i n d u s t r i a l technology cannot reduce the size of population (the variable) below a c e r t a i n l e v e l (a boundary),  13  then the myth of Nature  Benign i s v a l i d and provides appropriate guidance for human behaviour.  The  size of the whale population i s prone to recover to the t r a d i t i o n a l stable equilibrium no matter how much of the population i s removed, and people can do their best i n whaling without worrying about the collapse of the whale stock.  The advent of mechanized whaling, however, t o t a l l y changes t h i s  story.  With modern whaling technology, i t i s possible to harvest whales to  the extent that the population i s below the c r i t i c a l boundary, which r e s u l t s i n the e x t i n c t i o n of the whale stock.  Under this circumstance, i f people  continue operating according to Nature Benign and do their best i n whaling, their e f f o r t w i l l l i k e l y result i n the t o t a l breakdown of this whale stock. Thus, the myth of Nature Benign, once r e l i a b l e , becomes dangerous.  I t no  longer provides appropriate guidance for society. Today human a c t i v i t y has expanded so that i t s impact on the natural environment  can s u b s t a n t i a l l y a f f e c t global ecosystems.  In other words, i t  20  Figure 7 Human Impact on the Persistence  of an Ecological System  boundary  1T  traditional stable equilibrium  I  -e-4 I  s i z e of whale population amount of harvest possible by p r e - i n d u s t r i a l technology (where Nature Benign i s v a l i d )  amount of harvest possible by i n d u s t r i a l technology (where Nature Benign i s not valid)  21  i s l i k e l y that ecosystem variables are so h i g h l y disturbed that they can pass the boundaries of the basins i n the world of Nature Perverse/Tolerant much more r e a d i l y than before.  In order to avoid unpleasant  surprises, some  of which may be extremely dangerous to society, i t i s necessary to recognize the existence of s t a b i l i t y boundaries.  In short, since human impact on the  natural environment can now be far more severe because of the advancement of technology, we have to give up the myth of Nature Benign, which assumes an i n f i n i t e c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment to accommodate human activity.  (3)  Industrial Society and F o s s i l Fuel  The second half of the twentieth century i s characterized by an unprecedented expansion of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n .  We have entered a domain  where i n d u s t r i a l operations can i r r e t r i e v a b l y a f f e c t the natural environment.  Adverse effects r e s u l t i n g from the expansion of i n d u s t r i a l  operations have today become apparent i n the forms of  environmental  p o l l u t i o n and resource depletion unique to the l a t e twentieth century. p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s one of the most s t r i k i n g examples of pollution.  Acid  environmental  It i s destroying ecosystems of forests and lakes i n North  America and Europe, and t e l l s us that we are excessively emitting such pollutants as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, i n excess of what the natural environment can cope with.  For example, i n 197 8 an Ontario  government study showed that out of 200 lakes surveyed i n and near the Killarney region "40 were dead and 100 more were on the c r i t i c a l  list."  1 4  In the same year, about 24 m i l l i o n tons of nitrogen oxides and 28 millions of sulphur dioxides were emitted into the a i r i n the United States, and about 2.1 m i l l i o n tons and 5.5 m i l l i o n tons were emitted i n Canada.  1S  As  22  for resource depletion, Brown presents various examples of the loss of cropland by s o i l erosion, d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n , waterlogging, s a l i n i z a t i o n and urban expansion; the deterioration of the b i o l o g i c a l systems that sustain c i v i l i z a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y forests, grasslands and oceanic f i s h e r i e s , by deforestation, overgrazing and overfishing; and the rapid depletion of petroleum.  16  He believes that these three threats have today become serious  enough to undermine the contemporary  global c i v i l i z a t i o n .  1 7  It i s true that human impact on the natural environment n e g l i g i b l e even before the i n d u s t r i a l age.  was not  Locally, resource depletion  o c c a s i o n a l l y seems to have threatened people, who  then developed intended  and unintended devices, including taboos and r i t u a l s , i n order to avoid over-exploitation. relationship.  18  The beginning of agriculture changed the human-nature  Many plants and animals were domesticated a l l over the world,  and i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade and communication developed. people l i v e d l a r g e l y s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t l y those days.  S t i l l i t seems that That i s to say, they  l i v e d within the ecological capability of the l o c a l or regional  environment.  The advent of technology subsidized by f o s s i l f u e l fundamentally changed the r e l a t i o n s h i p between human society and nature described above. In every s i t u a t i o n where such technology has been introduced, the humannature r e l a t i o n s h i p becomes something q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t from what i t used to be.  P r e - i n d u s t r i a l society may be capable of depleting harvested  resources l o c a l l y , as mentioned above.  However, i n d u s t r i a l society can  deplete natural resources on a completely d i f f e r e n t scale.  Without the  twentieth-century technology, for example, the t r o p i c a l r a i n forest i n Southeast A s i a would not have been deforested so quickly and extensively, and the blue whale, which was too big and fast for the early whalers, could have been l e f t v i r t u a l l y i n t a c t .  Furthermore, i n terms of the natural  23  c a p a b i l i t y to decompose wastes r e s u l t i n g from human a c t i v i t y , i t i s i n this century that the myth of Nature Benign has f o r the f i r s t v a l i d extensively.  time ceased to be  Industrial society has produced various chemicals that  are  only slowly decomposed, i f at a l l , i n the natural environment.  are  an example f a m i l i a r to our d a i l y l i f e .  DDT i s a well-known  Plastics  classic  example of the chemicals that have been used as pesticides/herbicides and have unexpectedly resulted i n harsh negative e f f e c t s on the natural environment.  Industrial society has a l s o been producing more wastes than  what the natural environment can cope with.  A i r p o l l u t i o n and water  contamination, which have caused various human disorders at such places as Yokkaichi and Minamata i n Japan, are often a r e s u l t of i n d u s t r i a l operations and c i t i z e n s ' d a i l y l i f e that produces a vast amount of wastes, including sulphides, n i t r i d e s , phosphides and heavy metals.  The myth of Nature Benign  seems to have prevailed i n society i n terms of the c a p a b i l i t y to receive wastes, even i f not always i n terms of the natural c a p a b i l i t y to supply natural resources.  Without subsidization of f o s s i l f u e l , the present  society would not have produced vast amounts of various chemicals as wastes that are now undermining the v a l i d i t y of the myth of Nature Benign.  I  therefore regard f o s s i l f u e l as the agent that has induced the significant change i n the nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p , which i s q u a l i t a t i v e l y different from those caused by, for example, the advent of bows, animal domestication and agrarian transformation i n the past. The status of f o s s i l f u e l , such as coal, petroleum and natural gas, i s unique i n human h i s t o r y . ' 1  F o s s i l f u e l , not only as f u e l but also as  material, has a r i c h b e n e f i c i a l p o t e n t i a l f o r i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n .  It has  liberated human beings from many of the temporal and s p a t i a l r e s t r a i n t s of the  natural environment.  Murota argues that coal and petroleum ensure the  24  temporal and s p a t i a l continuity of i n d u s t r i a l operations.  That i s , because  of the high p o t e n t i a l of f o s s i l fuel as a power source and material, i n d u s t r i a l operations are possible day and night, i n any season, almost at any speed and v i r t u a l l y at any p l a c e .  According to Murota, t h i s  20  c o n t i n u i t y i s not shared by a g r i c u l t u r a l production, where the harvest of a p a r t i c u l a r crop i s only possible i n a given season and each crop requires a c e r t a i n set of ecological conditions.  He describes modern mechanized  a g r i c u l t u r e as the result of the e f f o r t to incorporate the advantage of i n d u s t r i a l operations given by f o s s i l f u e l into a g r i c u l t u r e under the pressure of the market system.  21  F o s s i l f u e l , especially petroleum,  i s the secret of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n .  It has achieved many miracles since the Industrial Revolution, e s p e c i a l l y i n the l a s t f i f t y years.  Coal and petroleum have made i t possible for human  beings to obtain remarkable mobility and unprecedented production.  Today i t  i s even possible to send astronauts to the moon and to b u i l d a large c i t y i n the middle of an a r i d land.  In the economic sphere, largely encouraged by  the p r i n c i p l e s of market economies, we have continuously t r i e d to improve economic e f f i c i e n c y by employing innovative technology and expanding the scale of production.  Both means are usually made possible by f o s s i l f u e l .  People often worry about the depletion of f o s s i l f u e l , as they do about the exhaustion of other nonrenewable resources. f u e l i s unfortunately too abundant.  In a sense, however, f o s s i l  Since a large amount of f o s s i l f u e l has  been a v a i l a b l e , i n d u s t r i a l society has u t i l i z e d t h i s resource to advance i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n to the extent that our a b i l i t y to exploit natural resources and produce commodities exceeds the a b i l i t y of l o c a l / r e g i o n a l environment to accommodate such a c t i v i t y .  In other words, i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n  has advanced so far that resource depletion and environmental p o l l u t i o n have  25  become serious problems. fuel i s available.  One of the main reasons i s that so much f o s s i l  For example, heat p o l l u t i o n i s today serious i n  metropolitan areas i n Japan.  Tsuchiya argues that heat p o l l u t i o n has become  so serious as to a f f e c t o r i g i n a l patterns of wind and p r e c i p i t a t i o n and thereby has begun r e s u l t i n g i n the disorder of native vegetation. According to Tsuchiya, the main reason f o r heat p o l l u t i o n i s the excessive use of fossil fuel.  2 2  Japan's consumption  of heat resources increased by 6.5  and that of petroleum increased by 24 times from 1955 to 1975.  times  In 1979,  23  2.3 b i l l i o n k i l o l i t r e s of petroleum as f u e l was sold i n Japan, which accounted for 55 per cent of the country's heat source.  The amount of heat  produced by t h i s petroleum was equivalent to 2.2 per cent of the t o t a l solar energy the country's f l a t land receives i n a year.  In the prefectures of  Tokyo, Kanagawa and Osaka, the corresponding values were as high as 15.8 and 15.9 per c e n t .  2 4  13.8,  If f o s s i l f u e l were not so abundant, i t could not  be used l i k e this and heat p o l l u t i o n might remain n e g l i g i b l e . Since modern technology has been successful i n achieving the agelong dream of material affluence, people, b e l i e v i n g i n technology and economic e f f i c i e n c y , tend to cope with these environmental problems technologically. In other words, people often t r y to solve environmental problems by further separating themselves from biogeochemical cycles i n the natural For  environment.  example, i n order to deal with the problem of waste disposal, urban  society has adopted a large-scale sewer system rather than developing a method of treatment making use of e c o l o g i c a l cycles i n the natural environment. First,  Murota c r i t i c i z e s  a large-scale sewer system as follows.  i t contributes to degradation and depletion of underground water, and  ground subsidence.  This i s because a large-scale sewer system prevents  rainwater from feeding underground water veins.  Second, at present i t i s  26  technologically impossible to treat i n d u s t r i a l and domestic waste water containing synthetic detergents s u f f i c i e n t l y to prevent water contamination. Third, the construction of a large-scale sewerage requires vast amounts of material resources of which may  such as limestone,  gravel and petroleum, the e x p l o i t a t i o n  result i n environmental degradation of the supplying  areas.  Fourth, the operation of a large-scale sewage plant requires vast amounts of. e l e c t r i c i t y and heavy o i l .  F i f t h , the cost of constructing a large-scale  sewerage has become a heavy f i n a n c i a l load on both the national and municipal governments.  Murota argues that society should give up such  e c o l o g i c a l l y unsound products as synthetic detergents and should leave t h i s resource-consumptive sewerage for an a l t e r n a t i v e method that i s more e f f i c i e n t i n resource terms and cheaper i n f i n a n c i a l terms.  He  describes  the s o i l sewage-disposal method (Dojo-joka-ho) as an example of the alternatives.  2 5  This method i s a way  to treat domestic waste water by  employing the decomposing c a p a b i l i t i e s of bacteria i n surface s o i l .  This  method i s already used i n practice i n Kanagawa, Japan, for example, and i s said to be more e f f i c i e n t i n treating waste water and cheaper than the p r e v a i l i n g method.  26  It should be noted that technological solutions or countermeasures of the kind described above are l a r g e l y dependent on f o s s i l f u e l , and these measures often create a vicious c i r c l e .  that  Even i f these measures are  successful temporarily and l o c a l l y , they w i l l l i k e l y make the problems even worse from a long-term, wide-ranging perspective.  The s i t u a t i o n may  be  understood more c l e a r l y by considering the example of a i r conditioning. a hot day i n summer, i n an asphalt-covered,  On  h i g h l y - i n d u s t r i a l i z e d and  densely-populated metropolitan area, such as Tokyo and Osaka i n Japan, people cannot stay inside because of the heat.  The heat-island phenomenon  27  i s obvious i n these c i t i e s , and people do not want open windows, because of a i r and noise p o l l u t i o n .  One  s o l u t i o n may  be to recover  s o i l , plant trees,  introduce tougher regulations for factory operations and regulations to reduce the number of v e h i c l e s .  Usually, however, an easier solution i s  adopted: people are i m p l i c i t l y and e x p l i c i t l y encouraged to purchase a i r coolers and  stay i n s i d e closed rooms.  National Product (GNP) . worse.  This solution increases the Gross  On the other hand, this solution makes the problem  Because of the waste heat from a i r cooling, neighbouring families  decide to buy coolers and the heat-island phenomenon i s increased. Furthermore a i r conditioning increases e l e c t r i c i t y consumption and stimulates commodity production In t h i s way,  thereby adding to environmental p o l l u t i o n .  although a i r conditioning creates a comfortable small-scale  environment, the larger environment i s doomed to further degradation.  As  this example shows, a technological solution to one environmental problem may  contribute to the degradation of the natural environment as a whole. It i s important to understand that there i s a l i m i t a t i o n to the  c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment to treat wastes discharged society.  from human  Some chemical compounds do not decompose quickly i n the natural  environment and remain toxic to l i v i n g organisms.  The u t i l i z a t i o n of coal  and petroleum has introduced many chemical compounds which the natural environment i s unable to decompose i n t o harmless substances for r e c y c l i n g . Wastes therefore begin to accumulate when the amount has passed the decomposing c a p a b i l i t y of environment.  It i s worth noting that much of  these wastes, both i n q u a l i t y and quantity, would not have existed i f coal and petroleum were not a v a i l a b l e . Modern i n d u s t r i a l society i s extensively dependent on f o s s i l f u e l . freedom from natural r e s t r a i n t s , provided by coal and petroleum, i s the  The  28  essence of modern c i v i l i z a t i o n .  After World War I I , the consumption of  petroleum increased rapidly, and i t now seems that we have entered a new domain where the r e s t r a i n t s imposed by nature are c r i t i c a l i n another way. Although we have gained freedom i n production and transportation by innovative technology and interregional trade, problems of the new type, concerned with resource depletion and environmental p o l l u t i o n , can hardly be solved technologically or by the magic of f o s s i l f u e l . The relationship between human society and i t s e c o l o g i c a l resource base has experienced a d r a s t i c change because of the advent of technology subsidized by f o s s i l f u e l .  We used to assume we could behave on the  i m p l i c i t assumption that the natural environment was unlimitedly benign and forgiving.  We can no longer assume l i m i t l e s s environmental capacity, as  serious environmental degradation i s now e a s i l y triggered.  Environment,  both as a supplier of materials for production and a receiver of i n d u s t r i a l wastes, should be understood i n a d i f f e r e n t way, by taking account of the c r i t i c a l change i n the scale and i n t e n s i t y of human impact on i t . f u e l i s a double-edged  sword.  production and consumption  Fossil  It i s time for us to develop a mode of  which i s compatible with the myth of Nature  Perverse/Tolerant.  (4)  The Mentality of Industrialism and Regional Planning  According to Catton and Dunlap, the "Dominant Western Worldview" can be represented by the followning four b e l i e f s : (1) People are fundamentally d i f f e r e n t from a l l other creatures on earth, over which they have dominion. (2) People are masters of their destiny; they can choose t h e i r goals and learn to do whatever i s necessary to achieve them. (3) The world i s vast, and thus provides unlimited opportunities  29  for humans. (4) The h i s t o r y of humanity i s one of progress; for every problem there i s a solution, and thus progress need never c e a s e . 27  The i m p l i c i t assumption of unlimited capacity of the natural environment, together with anthropocentricism, has established a certain mentality i n i n d u s t r i a l society.  Sale c a l l s the value system p r e v a i l i n g i n i n d u s t r i a l  society the " i n d u s t r i o - s c i e n t i f i c " paradigm.  In this paradigm, according to  Sale, the view of the economy i s characterized by emphasis on exploitation, change/progress,  world economy and competition, as opposed to conservation,  s t a b i l i t y , s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y and cooperation.  28  A b e l i e f i n constant  economic growth i s representative of t h i s i n d u s t r i a l mentality.  In  1960,  the national government of Japan launched the Income-Doubling Program and rushed into a period of high economic growth.  During this period, people  were constantly encouraged to consume more, and even the slogan "Consumption i s a Virtue" was created.  Increase i n the Gross National Product  (GNP)  was  widely regarded as p r e r e q u i s i t e to the welfare and happiness of the national population, and t h i s widely-spread b e l i e f i n economic growth was named the GNP myth. Regional planning has a l s o been geared to this i n d u s t r i a l mentality. Such approaches to regional planning as the growth-pole strategy and the theory of incremental economic growth are t y p i c a l l y based on the worldview of Nature Benign and the big-is-necessary philosophy. growth-pole or growth-centre  The basic idea of the  approach i s that urban economic growth can be  diffused to p e r i p h e r a l regions by establishing a concentrated i n d u s t r i a l core as an economic booster i n these regions.  Friedmann ans Weaver state  that "[r]egional planning doctrine i n the 1950s and 1960s revolved e s s e n t i a l l y around the idea of growth c e n t r e s . " ' 2  They t e l l us that:  30  i t i s surely surprising that regional planning almost succeeded i n making a f e t i s h of growth centres to the neglect of other dimensions of regional p o l i c y . Area or t e r r i t o r i a l l y s p e c i f i c p o l i c i e s receded i n t o the background of academic discussions. As a r e s u l t , i n s u f f i c i e n t a t t e n t i o n was paid to questions of natural resources, p o l i t i c a l implementation, administrative organization, and above a l l , to r u r a l development. Growth centres had become the universal solution to every regional problem. 30  Following the idea of growth centres, the government of Japan set about the National Comprehensive Development Plan i n 1962.  This plan was  launched  i n order to reduce regional d i s p a r i t y by e s t a b l i s h i n g a growth centre at selected spots i n underdeveloped prefectures.  Shimazu describes the Kashima  Industrial Zone Program as representative of the 1962  plan.  This program  3 1  aimed at developing an i n d u s t r i a l complex of steel and petrochemical on a sparsely populated Ibaragi Prefecture.  land (3,300 hectares) on the P a c i f i c coast i n  Shimazu observes that this development r e s u l t e d i n  degradation of l o c a l and neighbouring air  3 2  plants  ecosystems by p o l l u t i n g water and  and concludes that the l o c a l business and people, who  were most  affected by p o l l u t i o n and land expropriation, d i d not n e c e s s a r i l y benefit substantially from the development, that i s , their o v e r a l l gain d i d not necessarily exceed their o v e r a l l c o s t .  3 3  In the mid-seventies,  there were  about ten similar development programs i n Japan that involved more than 1,000  hectares, including Tomakomai-East i n Hokkaido and Mutu-Ogawara i n  Aomori. * 3  Development i s a key concept of i n d u s t r i a l i s m . Economic development has been regarded as prerequisite to happiness and welfare.  Some people  believe that development i s f i r m l y associated with economic growth, megaprojects and increases i n population.  For example, the CCRD (Canadian  Council on Rural Development) observes that:  31  the present-day approach to development tends to view d i f f e r e n t areas of human and i n s t i t u t i o n a l development as separate from each other. There are those who believe that a community with a depressed economic base can solve i t s problems simply by introducing some new industry or i n d u s t r i e s i n t o the community along with the l i m i t e d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e which i s required to support such development. 35  To these people, the term development i s interchangeable  with the economic  expansion measured by such indicators as the Gross National Product (GNP) and the Gross Regional Product (GRP), that i s , the growth of production and consumption, measured by the amounts of goods and services traded i n the market.  This i s an inadequate conceptualization of development.  Henderson argues that GNP/GRP have lost their appropriateness indicators of something desirable, c r i t i c i z i n g the "current preoccupation  as  linear  with maximizing i n d u s t r i a l growth as measured by the Gross  National Product (GNP) which, incomprehensively, adds these s o c i a l costs as p o s i t i v e contributions to production and wealth."  36  C r i t i c i s m of t h i s kind,  rooted i n the recognition that the negative output of i n d u s t r i a l  production,  environmental and s o c i a l costs, should be e x p l i c i t l y incorporated into economic a n a l y s i s , i s becoming more relevant because of the change i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p between human society and the natural environment and the enormous impact of mega-projects on the l o c a l community.  The CCRD states  that: we must r e s i s t the assumption that the shortest route to well-being i n the Mid-North i s v i a massive i n d u s t r i a l interventions to create jobs. It i s now recognized that the human and s o c i a l costs, plus the hidden economic costs associated with large i n d u s t r i a l projects, make i t i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t f o r these projects to have a p o s i t i v e impact on the l o c a l communities. 37  It should be noted that there i s not always a p a r a l l e l between the welfare of l o c a l communities and economic development measured by the GNP/GRP. The  32  term economic development needs to be l i b e r a t e d from i t s t r a d i t i o n a l exclusive commitment to economic growth by i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . The concept of economic e f f i c i e n c y i s another example of the i n d u s t r i a l mentality.  Economic e f f i c i e n c y usually measures p r o d u c t i v i t y i n terms of  the input of d o l l a r s or labour force, but not i n terms of natural as input, or of i n d u s t r i a l wastes as output.  resources  Economics has not paid as much  attention to natural resources as to finance and labour force, and the contribution of the natural environment to economic production appropriately appreciated.  i s not  Schumacher begins his famous Small Is Beautiful  by arguing this problem: One reason for overlooking t h i s v i t a l fact [that we are r a p i d l y consuming the 'natural c a p i t a l , ' "which man has not made, but simply found, and without which he can do nothing"] i s that we are estranged from r e a l i t y and i n c l i n e d to treat as valueless everything that we have not made ourselves. Even the great Dr. Marx f e l l into t h i s devastating error when he formulated the so-called 'labour theory of value.' Now, we have indeed laboured to make some of the c a p i t a l which today helps us to produce—a large fund of s c i e n t i f i c , technological, and other knowledge; an elaborate physical i n f r a s t r u c t u r e ; innumerable types of sophisticated c a p i t a l equipment, e t c . — b u t a l l t h i s i s but a small part of the t o t a l c a p i t a l we are using. Far larger i s the c a p i t a l provided by nature and not by man—and we do not even recognize i t as such. This larger part i s now being used up at an alarming rate, . . . . 3 8  Schumacher c r i t i c i z e s economics for i t s excessive commitment to market prices and neglect of human dependence on the natural environment.  He then  empahsizes the necessity to expand economics to include environmental consideration so that i t can provide a meaningful framework for economic studies at present and i n the f u t u r e . ' 3  In order to maximize economic returns, i n d u s t r i a l operations  tend to be  capital-intensive where c a p i t a l i s a v a i l a b l e , and an e f f o r t i s made to enlarge the scale of production and improve dollar-term e f f i c i e n c y .  This  33  dollar-term e f f i c i e n c y may be improved i n two ways. by r e a l i z i n g economies of scale.  F i r s t , t h i s i s achieved  Second, e f f i c i e n c y improves when  production elements are replaced with substitutes that are cheaper i n terms of market p r i c e s .  In t h i s second case, mechanization, from a vending  machine on the street to an engineering robot working at an automobile plant, has been introduced, for one reason, i n order to replace human labour, which i s regarded as a r e l a t i v e l y expensive element of production i n i n d u s t r i a l society.  Obviously, a mechanized operation i s not as e f f i c i e n t  i n terms of environmental costs as a labour-intensive operation, because the former generally requires more nonrenewable natural resources to construct and maintain than the l a t t e r .  The main reason that automobile companies  adopt mechanized production processes i s that they contribute to improvement i n dollar-term e f f i c i e n c y , while environmental costs are usually l e f t out of considerations.  Companies are also indifferent to their discharge of wastes  into the environment because the market economy t r a d i t i o n a l l y assigns no value to the environment  as a receiver of wastes.  For example, smelters are  most often reluctant to use low-sulphur coal as f u e l or equip a scrubber to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions because these result i n lowering d o l l a r term e f f i c i e n c y , while acid rain i s regarded as one of the most devastating environmental problems i n North America.  40  In short, improvement of economic e f f i c i e n c y has been achieved by i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n at the cost of the natural environment.  Industrial  operations that are e f f i c i e n t i n dollar terms are thus prone to be i n e f f i c i e n t i n terms of environmental costs.  Schumacher t e l l s us that  "[t]he most s t r i k i n g thing about modern industry i s that i t requires so much and accomplishes so l i t t l e , " and continues that "[m]odern industry seems to be i n e f f i c i e n t to a degree that surpasses one's ordinary powers of  34  imagination."  In the world where the myth of Nature Benign i s v a l i d ,  41  economic e f f i c i e n c y i n terms of labour force or d o l l a r s might serve as a meaningful c r i t e r i o n for economic production. i n present  i n d u s t r i a l society.  However, this i s not the case  Improvement i n economic e f f i c i e n c y may  sound  desirable, but we have to c l e a r l y understand what i t r e a l l y means.  Simon and Kahn are two of the major thinkers who this t h e s i s .  deny the premise of  For example, they argue that natural resources are getting  more a v a i l a b l e now  than before showing that the p r i c e of copper, for  example, r e l a t i v e to wages has declined i n human h i s t o r y .  4 2  According  to  Simon and Kahn: The cost trends of almost every natural resource have been downward over the course of recorded h i s t o r y . . . . These trends mean that raw materials have been getting increasingly a v a i l a b l e and less scarce r e l a t i v e to the most important and most fundamental element of economic l i f e , human work-time. The prices of raw materials have even been f a l l i n g r e l a t i v e to consumer goods and the Consumer Price Index. A l l the items i n the Consumer Price Index have been produced with increasingly e f f i c i e n t use of labour and c a p i t a l over the years, but the decrease i n cost of raw materials has been even greater than that of other goods. This i s a very strong demonstration of progressively decreasing s c a r c i t y and increasing a v a i l a b i l i t y of raw m a t e r i a l s . 43  If they measured the s c a r c i t y of a natural resource by the t o t a l amount of f o s s i l f u e l required to obtain a unit of the resource, Simon and Kahn would reach a d i f f e r e n t conclusion. cost trend of natural resources  One of the major reasons for the downward i s that society has constantly improved  labour e f f i c i e n c y subsidized by f o s s i l f u e l and i t s related technology. Their argument i s misleading because they ignore environmental costs that are associated with an e f f o r t to make natural resources society.  available to  Any argument about the a v a i l a b i l i t y of natural resources must  consider related consumption of nonrenewable resources and generation  of  35  wastes including heat.  Now  that the global resource base i s degraded by  excessive i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , more input i s needed than before i n environmental terms i n order to obtain the same amount of b e n e f i c i a l output. Henderson t e l l s us that: We must now cycle ever more c a p i t a l back into the process of extracting energy and raw materials from ever more degraded and inaccessible resource deposits, with ever declining net y i e l d s . The theory of continual substitution i s overo p t i m i s t i c and does not deal with simultaneous rates of depletion across a whole range of resources, thus reducing substitution o p t i o n s . 44  Since a l l energy/materials transformation processes, including recycling, involve the heat losses associated with the Second Law of Thermodynamics, . . . even i f an unlimited energy source could be brought on stream i n the next t h i r t y years, so that, i n p r i n c i p l e , a l l our material problems would be overcome, we would s t i l l face the l i m i t a t i o n s of planetary heat buildup, where even a few additional degrees i n temperature can trigger i r r e v e r s i b l e c l i m a t i c changes. 45  The Coming of Post-Industrial Society i s one of the bedrock books f o r the concept of post-industrialism.  In i t , B e l l employs the framework  developed by such economists/sociologists as Clark, Hatt and F o o t e .  46  Bell  uses as indices of post-industrial society the contribution of Clark's service, or the t e r t i a r y sector, to t o t a l employment and Gross National Product (GNP).  B e l l regards a country as p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l when i t s service  sector accounts for more than half of the employment and the GNP,  47  and  suggests the general movement of society from p r e - i n d u s t r i a l (primary) to i n d u s t r i a l (secondary) and further to p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l ( t e r t i a r y ) i n the form of  social forecasting.  48  He emphasizes the expansion of Foote and Hatt's  quinary sector (health, education, research, government and recreation), and to less extent those of quaternary (trade, finance, insurance and r e a l estate) and t e r t i a r y (largely, transportation and u t i l i t i e s ) sectors i n the p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l phase.  49  36  It i s true that the above argument about the s h i f t of labour force from the primary to the secondary and further to the t e r t i a r y sector and the r e l a t i v e shrinkage of the primary sector with the progress of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i s useful i n d e s c r i b i n g and understanding taken place i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d s o c i e t y .  what has already  I t i s questionable, however, i f the  framework of this argument serves future s o c i a l and economic forecasts. The reason i s that B e l l ' s argument presupposes an i n f i n i t e l y forgiving nature, whose c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate human a c t i v i t y i s v i r t u a l l y l i m i t l e s s .  The  expansion of the regional service sector i s only possible when high labour force p r o d u c t i v i t y i s maintained  i n the e x t r a c t i v e and manufacturing  industries i n a region, or at the e c o l o g i c a l s a c r i f i c e of other regions. For example, the food-producing  sector i n a p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l region has to  support the r e l a t i v e l y large labour force i n the non-primary sectors unless underdeveloped regions are the suppliers of cheap foodstuffs forever. i n d u s t r i a l a g r i c u l t u r e must be extremely  Post-  labour e f f i c i e n t , using heavily  mechanized operations subsidized by chemical f e r t i l i z e r s and pesticides. This type of mechanized a g r i c u l t u r e has already induced  environmental  problems such as s o i l erosion and ground water p o l l u t i o n .  If this kind of  food production, which employs petroleum-dependent technology, cannot be sustained i n the long run, p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l society has no choice but to collapse e n t i r e l y unless i t goes on e c o l o g i c a l l y exploiting other regions or countries as food suppliers. B e l l ' s argument about p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l society i s therefore something that does not go beyond a mere extension of i n d u s t r i a l i s m .  It i s  constructed upon the major presupposition of industrialism or the myth of Nature Benign.  What i s necessary i s to consider a mode of food production  37  which i s e c o l o g i c a l l y sound and can be sustained i n the long run, on  the  understanding that there i s an absolute l i m i t to the expansion of human a c t i v i t y i n nature.  If post-industrialism l i t e r a l l y means something that i s  to come a f t e r industrialism, p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l society w i l l f i n d humankind r e embedded i n the ecological cycles of the natural environment, rather than s i t t i n g i n an electronic cottage separated world of s o i l , a i r , water and l i f e .  from the natural sphere, the  P o s t - i n d u s t r i a l food production  will  l i k e l y be more labour-intensive and e f f i c i e n t i n terms of environmental cost.  Under the circumstances where environmental p o l l u t i o n and/or natural resource depletion are well-advanced, a collapse w i l l be unavoidable i f we continue to search for a boom.  If the goal of regional planning i s regional  welfare i n the long run, i t i s necessary to give p r i o r i t y to i d e n t i f y i n g resource u t i l i z a t i o n that i s compatible with regional environmental imperatives  rather than elaborating a strategy to maximize  short-term  economic returns or encourage continuous growth i n the GRP.  The concepts of  continuous growth and economic e f f i c i e n c y need to be replaced by those of steady state and s u s t a i n a b i l i t y .  It i s also necessary to reconsider  i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade, which i s e s s e n t i a l to i n d u s t r i a l society.  Today most  regional economies i n i n d u s t r i a l countries are extensively dependent on i n t e r r e g i o n a l transactions.  But, as w i l l be seen i n the following  chapter,  a region that commits i t s economy to i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade, when we cannot assume i n f i n i t e c a p a b i l i t i e s of the natural environment, i s u n l i k e l y to be acting i n the long term interests of i t s inhabitants.  It has become  important to build a regional economy on the basis of inherent regional resources.  In short, "regional development" must be achieved  within the  environmental c a p a b i l i t y of the region, and regional planning needs abandon i t s growth-oriented mentality.  39  CHAPTER III VIABILITY OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY  (1)  Introduction  The purpose of t h i s chapter i s to consider what type of regional economy can best serve the o v e r a l l i n t e r e s t of the regional inhabitants.  I  assume that their interest i s i n enjoying an economically stable and environmentally comfortable l i f e i n the long run, rather than a m a t e r i a l l y affluent and unlimitedly convenient l i f e , which cannot be sustained without the degradation of their environment.  A v i a b l e region can be b u i l t on the  basis of a viable economy that can meet t h i s o v e r a l l i n t e r e s t of the regional population.  V i a b i l i t y can be defined as c a p a b i l i t y to survive  disturbances  and c r i s e s and continue to function i n an adequate way i n  perpetuity.  Therefore,  I define a v i a b l e regional economy as a regional  economic system that can survive disturbances  from outside the region, such  as abrupt price changes i n world markets or reorientations i n resource p o l i c y of the central government.  It can i n other words provide the  regional population with appropriate  subsistence  constantly i n the long run.  In this chapter, I examine concepts that are l i k e l y to support e f f o r t s to improve the v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy.  I conclude that  sustainable  regional resource management and s e l f - r e l i a n t regional economic a c t i v i t y are two of the major props required to sustain such a v i a b l e economy. Following this introduction, I discuss several concepts relevant to achieving v i a b i l i t y i n a regional economy.  The concepts to be discussed  are: ( i ) economic e f f i c i e n c y and development, ( i i ) s e l f - r e l i a n c e and s e l f -  40  s u f f i c i e n c y , ( i i i ) sustainable resource u t i l i z a t i o n , supply-based and steady state, and ( i v ) restructure planning.  approach  I then review the F i n a l  Report prepared by the Slocan Valley Community Forest Management Project (1974).  This report, which includes an e x p l i c i t awareness of the limited  capacity of the natural environment  and aims at the long-term welfare of the  l o c a l community, provides a valuable i l l u s t r a t i o n for my argument about the v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy.  F i n a l l y , I look at the linkage between my  concepts concerning a v i a b l e region and the Slocan Valley Community Forest Management Project emphasizing the l o c a l perspective or viewpoint of the community.  I describe the meaning of a l o c a l viewpoint i n the context of  natural resource management and u t i l i z a t i o n , and argue why a l o c a l perspective needs to be incorporated into decision-making processes on resource p o l i c y .  I also look at how  ecology becomes linked with economy i n  the interest of the l o c a l community.  (2)  Concepts for a V i a b l e Regional Economy  E f f o r t s to achieve a v i a b l e region i n a natural environment  whose  c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate human a c t i v i t y i s limited, requires a way of thinking and a set of concepts that are fundamentally d i f f e r e n t from what now p r e v a i l s .  Considering what i s a viable regional economy, I have  encountered several major concepts, which can support efforts toward i t . this section, I t r y to c l a r i f y these key concepts and describe the associations between some of them.  (i)  Economic E f f i c i e n c y and Development, Redefined  Growth-oriented approaches  to regional planning, the growth-centre  strategy for example, were established on the i m p l i c i t assumption  that the  In  41  natural environment had unlimited c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate human economic activity.  When t h i s assumption i s not relevant, the approach to a v i a b l e  regional economy has to be fundamentally d i f f e r e n t .  In Chapter I I , I argued  that usual connotations of such f a m i l i a r words i n regional planning as economic development and economic e f f i c i e n c y are no longer relevant when the human impact on the natural environment i s s u f f i c i e n t to threaten the wellbeing of even large ecosystems on the planet.  In a sense, we have already  passed the ecological l i m i t s to growth of human a c t i v i t y , and present society i s temporarily sustained unecologically by f o s s i l f u e l .  Under the  new assumption that there are l i m i t s i n nature, a l t e r n a t i v e meanings for economic e f f i c i e n c y and development may be developed incorporating economics and ecology. As argued e a r l i e r , economic e f f i c i e n c y or p r o d u c t i v i t y usually designates the amount of b e n e f i c i a l outputs or products, measured i n the d o l l a r terms, per unit of input that i s evaluated and priced through the market or per unit of labour.  Now that the natural environment has become a  c r i t i c a l element of production, i t i s meaningful to define economic e f f i c i e n c y i n terms of i t s impact on the natural environment so that the concept w i l l serve as a tool for designing a mode of production compatible with regional ecological properties.  Economic-environmental e f f i c i e n c y may  be defined as: the amount of b e n e f i c i a l outputs (products) of a p a r t i c u l a r production process per unit of [1] input materials and energy (natural resources) and [2] adverse outputs (wastes). T r a d i t i o n a l l y  economic  e f f i c i e n c y i s measured by the r a t i o of inputs and outputs i n d o l l a r terms. In the case of economic-environmental e f f i c i e n c y , however, such a common measure or a universally acceptable denominator does not e x i s t .  Therefore,  i n an a n a l y t i c a l study of a production process using t h i s new concept, a l l  42  the  relevant items of inputs and outputs w i l l have to be l i s t e d and then  evaluated.  The f i n a l judgment, the determination of the appropriateness of  a c e r t a i n production process within the context of regional c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , w i l l be made mainly on the basis of trade-offs.  Nevertheless, i f desired, a  common denominator f o r the purpose of comparing the costs and benefits i n a numerical way can be developed regionally, by evaluating the properties of both human and natural systems i n the region.  The concept of economic-  environmental e f f i c i e n c y may be employed along with existing e f f i c i e n c y concepts, rather than dropping those familiar ones.  The concept of labour  e f f i c i e n c y , f o r example, may often be complementary to the proposed concept. What i s necessary i s to e x p l i c i t l y incorporate the adverse impact on the natural environment i n t o economic-efficiency studies. After World War I I , economic development has often been regarded as what can be adequately indicated by the amount of goods and services traded i n the market.  The GNP/GRP are among the most widely employed yardsticks of  economic growth.  Since, as Brown says, " i n affluent nations, the q u a l i t y of  l i f e becomes confused with an ever-expanding consumption of goods and services"  50  and GNP i s used "as the measure of w e l l - b e i n g , "  51  i t i s not  surprising that economic development has become firmly connected with such indicators as the GNP and GRP.  Although c r i t i c i z e d i n various a s p e c t s ,  52  these economic i n d i c a t o r s s t i l l seem to remain convenient and popular tools for economic studies.  Under the situation where l i m i t s to human economic  a c t i v i t y do e x i s t , the concept of economic development loses v a l i d i t y i t i s l i b e r a t e d from i t s adherence to economic growth.  unless  It i s meaningful,  therefore, to t r y to define economic development so that the term w i l l designate the d e s i r a b l e q u a l i t a t i v e evolution of an economy. Development or progression, according to T r i s t , "refers to processes by  43  which a system reaches higher order steady states of a more adaptive nature."  T r i s t thus attempts to define development i n the context of the  adaptive process of a system to i t s environment.  53  This d e f i n i t i o n i s r i c h  in implications for a d e f i n i t i o n of regional development emphasizing long-term welfare of a regional community.  the  If one of the major goals of  regional planning i s to ensure the well-being of the regional population i n the long run, i t i s reasonable to have regional development refer to processes by which a regional community improves i t s v i a b i l i t y .  For this  argument, Goulet's concept of development and h i s d i s t i n c t i o n between "economic progress" and "a progressive economy" are most s i g n i f i c a n t . According to Goulet: Development i s not a cluster of benefits "given" to people i n need, but rather a process by which a populace acquires greater mastery over i t s own destiny. Even i n purely economic terms, a v i t a l d i f f e r e n c e separates economic progress from a progressive economy. The f i r s t i s measured by gains i n production, increased revenue, or volume of trade. Thus, economic progress takes place when l o c a l production i s doubled, thanks to the i n s t a l l a t i o n of a new factory, even i f technicians and s k i l l e d workers must be brought from other regions to staff i t , or even i f the factory monopolizes markets or eliminates l o c a l handicrafts. . . . Investments made i n p a t e r n a l i s t i c fashion can perhaps generate economic progress i n material terms, but they do not make the economy progressive. An economy becomes progressive when men who had hitherto been passive now conjugate their e f f o r t s to eliminate ignorance, disease, hunger, mendicity, s e r v i l i t y , and e x p l o i t a t i o n . 54  Although Goulet makes t h i s argument i n the context of the Third World development, his point i s v a l i d to the f u l l extent for regional development planning i n i n d u s t r i a l countries. What i s important i s that he emphasizes the q u a l i t a t i v e change or evolution of a l o c a l economy or people who compose i t , not a quantitative expansion of a l o c a l economy induced by transplanting c a p i t a l and technology from outside without paying s u f f i c i e n t attention to the l o c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , people and land.  In the same vein, the CCRD  44  (Canadian Council on Rural Development) describes what they c a l l "the development process" as follows: The Council describes this process as: "people being involved i n i d e n t i f y i n g their own needs, interests and p o t e n t i a l ; people developing their own s k i l l s , s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , economic enterprises and c u l t u r a l pursuits; people learning how to manage these developments; people modifying their value systems and social philosophies to incorporate t h i s process of change into a stable and coherent s o c i a l system." 55  The ideas of Goulet and the CCRD, emphasizing the importance of promoting s e l f - r e l i a n c e , share the ground with Omo-Fadaka's concept of "development from within," which i s to be b r i e f l y reviewed i n the following sub-section. Economic development needs to be defined so that i t w i l l contribute to o v e r a l l regional development including social and c u l t u r a l aspects.  It i s  an integrated component of o v e r a l l development and cannot be meaningfully i s o l a t e d from the r e s t .  I define regional economic development as follows:  regional economic development designates processes by which a regional community enjoys r e a l i z i n g i t s potentials and explores further p o s s i b i l i t i e s to increase i t s s e l f - r e l i a n c e and thereby improves i t s economy i n such a way that i t can support the l i f e of regional residents at an appropriate l e v e l i n the long run.  This d e f i n i t i o n of economic development i s consistent with  a v i a b l e region, as defined i n Chapter I.  In this proposed sense, a  developed economy i s r i c h i n f l e x i b i l i t y to absorb extraregional economic disturbances, r i c h i n future p o l i c y options and self-supporting to a high extent.  Here economic development does not necessarily mean expansion of  economic a c t i v i t y evaluated by a market system.  (ii)  Self-Reliance and Self-Sufficiency  It seems that s e l f - r e l i a n c e and s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y v i r t u a l l y mean the  45  same thing, that i s , to support oneself and p e r s i s t .  Both are properties of  individuals, i n s t i t u t i o n s or communities that exist by t h e i r own wits and abilities.  Nevertheless, I use these words with s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t  connotations.  In my view, while s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y emphasizes on being  perfect or the c a p a b i l i t y to p e r s i s t on one's own account even i f completely isolated from the rest of the world, s e l f - r e l i a n c e i s a more general term designating the act or state of providing oneself with n e c e s s i t i e s . term i s self-sustenance.  In t h i s t h e s i s , I employ t h i s term as a property  of a resource system that i s managed i n such a way long-term persistence.  A third  as to ensure i t s stable  What I am arguing i s that i n order to achieve a  viable region a regional community should develop economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e using regional resources i n a s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g manner.  Regional economic  s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i s an i d e a l state. Interregional trade i s indispensable to sustain urban areas, which have grown by expanding the interregional flow of materials and goods.  Their  prosperity depends on the benefits of these i n t e r r e g i o n a l transactions.  On  the other hand, i t i s not unusual that resource regions s p e c i a l i z i n g i n the export of staples do not correspondingly benefit economically, although these export staples create great wealth outside the region.  In other  words, i t i s often the case that the long-term economic well-being of peripheral resource regions i s not ensured by increasing their staple exports. In a resource region where i t s staple resource can be depleted, i t i s c r i t i c a l to the v i a b i l i t y of the regional economy to determine how region can develop economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e .  far the  Omo-Fadaka argues that " [ s ] e l f -  reliance i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e of economic s t a b i l i t y "  5 6  "development from within" i n Third World countries.  and  advocates  According to him, Third  46  World countries can achieve economic development that serves their people not by transplanting c a p i t a l and technology from the developed nations but by u t i l i z i n g t h e i r own natural resources, land and large labour forces, i n such a way  that communal traditions are r e v i t a l i z e d and levels of not only  subsistence but also human dignity and freedom are r a i s e d .  5 7  This argument  about development from within also seems relevant i n resource-oriented hinterlands i n developed countries.  In order to obtain freedom from  dependence upon staple exports, i t i s necessary for these regions to r e e s t a b l i s h t h e i r economy on the foundation of r e g i o n a l l y available resources. The concept of s e l f - r e l i a n c e should be c a r e f u l l y evaluated i n resource regions i n the context of possible environmental degradation including the depletion of major staple resources. In i t s s t r i c t sense, regional s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y may  be u n r e a l i s t i c .  Nevertheless, i n order to achieve a viable economy, e f f o r t s need to be made to enhance regional self-supporting systems and push the regional economy as close to s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y as possible.  It i s necessary here to consider  what can be supplied on what area of land or what size of economy.  For  example, d a i l y produce and simply crafted products may be supplied v i r t u a l l y s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t l y within a small community roughly represented by the size of a creek (see p.95), that i s , these commodities are l i k e l y supplied by subsistence a g r i c u l t u r e and subsistence c r a f t s .  On the other hand, large  sophisticated furniture and paper products may only be made i n an area represented by at least the size of a r i v e r .  Many i n d u s t r i a l commodities  may be supplied s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t l y only i n a region represented by a major drainage or even i n a group of such regions.  Moreover, since the  d i s t r i b u t i o n of natural resources i s not constant and climatic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s vary, some commodities are not a v a i l a b l e i n every l o c a l i t y .  47  The i n t e r r e g i o n a l exchange of regional s p e c i a l t i e s i s l i k e l y to contribute to the improvement i n the standard of l i v i n g i n both regions.  I understand  regional s e l f - r e l i a n c e not as a l i m i t e d concept l i k e s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n i t s s t r i c t sense, which precludes  every i n t e r r e g i o n a l economic transaction, even  i f i t would be i d e a l , but as a conceptual  t o o l to r e a l i z e and improve the  primary c a p a b i l i t y of the region to support  i t s population.  What i s  necessary i n evaluating a regional economy i n terms of s e l f - r e l i a n c e i s to determine what can be replaced with regionally-produced  commodities and what  can be given up i n order to decrease regional dependency on interregional trade.  This determination  requires a trade-off according to the social and  c u l t u r a l needs of the regional population. The concept of s e l f - r e l i a n c e i s prone to be associated with the idea of decentralization.  Clavel argues that there are two kinds of regionalism,  which d i f f e r from each other i n an e s s e n t i a l way: On the one hand there i s a p r o l i f e r a t i o n i n Western countries of what might best be termed regional nationalisms, which often represent true p o l i t i c a l m o b i l i z a t i o n . . . . On the other hand, administrators and p o l i t i c i a n s t r y to take t e r r i t o r i a l i n t e r e s t s into account as they oversee increasingly c e n t r a l i z e d state machinery, which has resulted in a p r o l i f e r a t i o n of regional c o u n c i l s , regional administrative d i s t r i c t s , and regional authorities of various sorts. 5 8  E f f o r t s to achieve s e l f - r e l i a n c e i n regional community are prone to be associated with Clavel's f i r s t kind of regionalism, "which d i r e c t l y and dramatically represents a p o l i t i c a l movement toward autonomy from central government."  59  The v i a b i l i t y of a regional economy which serves the  interests of the regional population i n the long run can be achieved retained by the responsible involvement of the regional community.  and A  c e r t a i n degree of administrative and p o l i t i c a l autonomy i s necessary to assure regional economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e .  It i s also l i k e l y necessary for  48  ensuring sustainable resource management and u t i l i z a t i o n that regional residents have an access i n a d i r e c t way to the decision-making resource management and economic p o l i c y .  process of  This i s because people who are  rooted i n the s o i l and water of their t e r r i t o r y w i l l be more concerned with the long-term effects of resource management and u t i l i z a t i o n than those who do not share the same regional  identification.  ( i i i ) Sustainable Resource U t i l i z a t i o n , Supply-Based Approach and Steady State Expendable surplus i s one of the key concepts that serve sustainable resource u t i l i z a t i o n , which i s e s s e n t i a l to the long-term well-being of a regional economy.  Expendable surplus or sustained y i e l d designates an  amount of a renewable resource that humans can harvest without d e t e r i o r a t i n g the renewability of the resource base, so that i t can go on u t i l i z i n g the resource i n perpetuity.  It i s necessary to understand the e c o l o g i c a l  r e l a t i o n s h i p between a resource to be u t i l i z e d and the rest of the natural environment, and expendable surplus must be determined before extraction, on the basis of the investigation i n t o the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a l l the resources i n the area, where resource development i s to take place.  The  1980 World Conservation Strategy describes sustainable u t i l i z a t i o n as follows giving an analogy: Sustainable u t i l i z a t i o n i s somewhat analogous to spending the interest while keeping the c a p i t a l . A society that i n s i s t s that a l l u t i l i z a t i o n of l i v i n g resources be sustainable ensures that i t w i l l benefit from those resources v i r t u a l l y indefinitely. 6 0  The 1980 strategy considers the sustainable u t i l i z a t i o n of ecosystems and species as one of the three p r i o r i t y requirements f o r achieving conservation, which i s defined as: "the management of human use of the  49  biosphere so that i t may y i e l d the greatest sustainable benefit to present generations while maintaining i t s p o t e n t i a l to meet the needs and aspirations of future g e n e r a t i o n s . "  61  It also argues that the following i s  necessary: Determine the productive c a p a c i t i e s of exploited species and ecosystems and ensure that u t i l i z a t i o n does not exceed those capacities. 6 2  Management objectives should take adequate account of important r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the exploited species or ecosystems and the species and ecosystems with which they are linked. They should allow for error, ignorance and uncertainty. 6 3  When we attempt to determine expendable surpluses i n a regional context, i t i s necessary to exclude extra surpluses produced by human intervention subsidized by imported commodities and products.  petroleum-derived  By doing t h i s , we can obtain information about the genuine  producing c a p a b i l i t y of natural and human systems i n a region, that i s , what can be made a v a i l a b l e i n an e c o l o g i c a l l y sound way without being dependent on the extraregional economy.  This information i s indispensable for an  e f f o r t to improve the s e l f - r e l i a n c e of the regional economy.  In planning a  regional economy, expendable surpluses of the regional resources should be determined f i r s t , and on that basis an appropriate regional economic structure should be designed considering the s o c i a l needs of the region. This i s what supply-based imposing  planning means.  What i s available without  stress on the natural environment, rather than human demand, must  come f i r s t i n designing a future regional economy.  A supply-based  approach  i s thus derived from the concept of the sustainable u t i l i z a t i o n of renewable resources. Supply-based planning i s the a n t i t h e s i s of a demand-based approach which i s linked to the b e l i e f i n constant growth.  In other words, a supply-  50  based approach advocates a steady-state economy, not a constant growth one. Steady state, however, should not be confused with stagnant.  A steady-state  economy i s active i n pursuing better q u a l i t y commodities and services within the c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment. q u a l i t y and s t a b i l i t y oriented.  A steady-state economy i s  Under a steady-state economy, l i t t l e or no  quantitative economic growth i s achieved because the absolute capacity of the natural environment i s respected.  On the other hand e f f o r t s are  constantly made to increase the a b i l i t y of society to support people at a s a t i s f a c t o r y l i v i n g standard, to survive i n the long run, and to s a t i s f y human demands i n an environmentally f e a s i b l e way.  In Goulet's terms (see  p.43), e f f o r t s are made to transform an economy into a more progressive one while l i t t l e economic progress i s sought. inactive state which remains unchanged.  Steady state does not r e f e r to an In a steady-state economy, economic  development can hardly take place i n i t s t r a d i t i o n a l sense, but i t does take place within the meaning I proposed e a r l i e r i n this section.  (iv)  Restructure Planning  Modern i n d u s t r i a l countries are e n t i r e l y committed to petroleum-based technology.  The p r e v a i l i n g mode of production and consumption i s dependent  on petroleum especially i n urban areas, and to a lesser but s t i l l s i g n i f i c a n t extent i n r u r a l a r e a s .  64  The dependence upon petroleum  undermines the v i a b i l i t y of a regional community i n two ways.  First, i t  increases the dependence of the regional economy on i n t e r r e g i o n a l transactions and thereby makes the economy vulnerable to extraregional economic fluctuations.  Secondly, excessive consumption of petroleum and  petroleum-derived products i s prone to result i n wastes that, both i n q u a l i t y and quantity, exceed the decomposing c a p a b i l i t y of the natural  51  environment, thereby inducing environmental contamination, which not deteriorates the l i v i n g environment of regional residents but may  also  substantially undermine the e c o l o g i c a l resource base of the region. necessary today to re-evaluate The 1980  only  It i s  the dependence of human society on petroleum.  World Conservation  Strategy argues that humankind i s faced  with "a long l i s t of hazards and d i s a s t e r s , including s o i l erosion, d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n , loss of cropland, p o l l u t i o n , deforestation, ecosystem degradation and destruction, and e x t i n c t i o n of species and v a r i e t i e s . " pointed out i n the strategy, one of the reasons for this may often take "a short-sighted approach when exploiting natural  As  6 5  be that people resources."  66  Besides the above, there i s another major reason for the long l i s t of environmental hazards.  It i s that the dominant mode of production  and  consumption i s probably using more than can be supplied by the natural environment on a sustainable b a s i s . the method of extracting resources  It seems that the problem i s not only or the practice of resource management  but also the absolute amount of natural resources consumed by humankind today.  It i s l i k e l y that we are consuming somewhat more than what we  could  under sustainable conditions. If the above argument i s relevant, i t becomes one of the most important tasks of regional planning to restructure the regional economy, which i s consuming too much.  Consuming excess resources does not necessarily mean  increased benefits to regional residents, because a substantial portion of them could be consumed i n a wasteful manner, for nothing b e n e f i c i a l to the inhabitants of the community.  When the presumption of an unlimitedly  forgiving nature becomes i n v a l i d a t e d , i t i s necessary to restructure the regional economy so that i t w i l l be compatible with i t s environmental requirements.  In t h i s process,  the concept of economic-environmental  52  e f f i c i e n c y , which I proposed e a r l i e r , may  serve as a useful t o o l .  current mode of production and consumption, which i s now may have to be fundamentally changed.  The  taken f o r granted,  It seems necessary to e s t a b l i s h what  may be called "restructure planning" i n regional planning i n order to redirect the regional economy so that a v i a b l e regional community can be achieved within the limited c a p a b i l i t y of the regional  (3)  environment.  Slocan Valley Community Forest Management Project The Slocan Valley Community Forest Management Project, hereafter, the  Slocan Project, was a six-month e f f o r t , beginning on January 1, 1974,  67  to  study the natural resources and the socio-economic structure i n the Slocan Valley located i n southeast B r i t i s h Columbia.  The community i s part of the  Central Kootenay and i t s population was estimated at approximately 4,500 at the time of the p r o j e c t .  It was a small r u r a l community.  68  The study area  was the Slocan Public Sustained Y i e l d Unit (P.S.Y.U.), which "consists of a 70-mile-long [110-kilometre-long], deep, north-south v a l l e y which i s dominated by steep mountain ranges" and "surrounds an area of 558,074 acres [2,258 square kilometres] of which 517,862 [2,096] are considered p r i m a r i l y as forest a r e a s . "  69  The i n i t i a l intention of the project was to "conduct a  f e a s i b i l i t y study into several areas of forest use" i n order to "create new sources of employment without hazard to the Valley environment."  70  The  project, however, ended up with an o v e r a l l study of both the natural and human systems i n the v a l l e y .  It went far beyond the perspective of a  forestry study on economic f e a s i b i l i t y or environmental impact.  This i s  mainly because an e x p l i c i t emphasis was put upon the perspective of the v a l l e y community i t s e l f .  The project staff thought i t a serious problem for  the future of the v a l l e y , that the l o c a l community was  l e f t unaware of  53  information about t h e i r natural resources and was alienated from resource management.  The project produced the Final Report later i n the same year,  which the authors described as "written by and for the l o c a l community," not "by outside experts f o r use i n V i c t o r i a " l i k e some f i f t e e n studies of the area done i n the p a s t .  7 1  A steering committee composed of l o c a l residents  hired the project s t a f f and provided them with d i r e c t i o n throughout the project.  7 2  The project s t a f f gathered information from the community by  questionnaires and p u b l i c meetings, studies.  73  as well as from l i t e r a t u r e and on-site  According to the authors, the report "does r e f l e c t an honest  portrayal of a r e a l s i t u a t i o n which exists h e r e . "  74  As t h e i r investigations began, the project staff soon found that the existing s i t u a t i o n i n the v a l l e y was f u l l of problems.  75  Their major  findings include: [1] Economic dependence of the community on a single corporation The company provides 500 (61%) f u l l - t i m e jobs out of 819 found i n the valley.  These 819 jobs include 155 school and other government related  jobs.  "From 34 l o c a l , independent  76  1952, we now have one foreign-owned Valley."  logging operators and 19 sawmills i n m i l l and only one major employer i n the  77  [2] High unemployment "[T]hat unemployment i s very close to 20% i s probably not an overstatement. Estimates indicate some 350 people who need some form of employment." [3] Unproductive timber  78  utilization  The e x i s t i n g volume-oriented u t i l i z a t i o n i s characterized by low l o c a l value added and tremendous waste of timber resource.  "Within the l o c a l forest  industry, . . . , the present emphasis on volume, rather than q u a l i t y , production r e s u l t s i n the waste of a good deal of usable wood.  . ..  54  Planks of a l l species are often exported f o r resaw elsewhere, costing the Valley jobs.  . . . Only approximately 35% of our standing timber becomes  boards when i t i s logged."  79  [4] Trend toward large-scale c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e production A labour-efficient operation often f a i l s to provide " s p e c i a l i z e d techniques v i t a l to good forest management" and "faster production often r e s u l t s i n decreased quality, increased waste, and fewer jobs" per unit of production.  80  While the volume of extracted wood escalates, employment  opportunities do not increase correspondingly.  81  [5] Pronounced damage to the v a l l e y environment  by timber extraction  Problems exist i n access road construction, clearcut by tractor/skidder, slash burning and f e r t i l i z a t i o n .  8 2  "[T]he emphasis i s on speed, and  'maximize cut to minimize costs' has become a slogan of the forest industry."  83  Even "poor" and "low" class s i t e s , which are often  e c o l o g i c a l l y f r a g i l e , are logged with c a t e r p i l l a r t r a c t o r s and s k i d d e r s .  84  The existing management i s only f o r one resource—wood f i b r e , and "consideration f o r water, f i s h , w i l d l i f e , etc" i s p r e c l u d e d .  85  [6] Lack of e f f e c t i v e resource management by government agencies The agencies "have h i s t o r i c a l l y been so underfinanced that management' cannot take place. possible f u n c t i o n . "  86  'resource  Thus, resource allotment i s t h e i r only  $235,000 was spent on resource management i n the  v a l l e y i n 1973, but t h i s was only 43% of the government stumpage revenue or 22% of the t o t a l revenue from the forest industry i n the v a l l e y .  8 7  Furthermore, each agency operates independently with d i f f e r e n t j u r i s d i c t i o n a l boundaries, with l i t t l e opportunity f o r cooperation.  Since  the "budgets d i c t a t e single-resource management f o r timber," the r e a l i t y i s far from multiple-resource management.  88  55  [7] Lack of involvement of the l o c a l community i n resource management "The Slocan Public Sustained Y i e l d Unit i s t o t a l l y committed to industry, precluding p r i v a t e access to timberland."  89  "The people of the Slocan  Valley are not included i n the decision-making process that manipulates their jobs, t h e i r environment, their quality of l i f e . "  9 0  The Project s t a f f also studied both the natural and human history of the v a l l e y ,  9 1  and t r i e d to i d e n t i f y how the existing s i t u a t i o n had evolved.  Here they examined how l o c a l small-scale forest operators had been liquidated.  92  They also saw how the d i s t i n c t i v e r i s e and f a l l of the mining  industry provided an example of the relationship between the long-term welfare of the l o c a l community and short-sighted resource extraction. It demonstrated the v u l n e r a b i l i t y of the l o c a l economy controlled by the larger external economy.  9 3  Since the s t a f f , at the early stage of the project, came to regard the e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n as t o t a l l y unacceptable i n terms of l o c a l well-being i n the long run, the "project ceased looking to the e x i s t i n g situation for i t s d i r e c t i o n , " and they "began to research the c a p a b i l i t i e s of the Slocan P.S.Y.U. i t s e l f , seeking positive solutions rather than reactionary recommendations."  94  The project staff conducted a f u l l study on s i t e  c a p a b i l i t y , timber and related forest resources such as f i s h , w i l d l i f e , water and recreation opportunities, and the community, namely, people and their l i v e l i h o o d .  9 5  Their conclusion was that:  Our f o r e s t s , when combined with a g r i c u l t u r a l and mining c a p a b i l i t i e s , speak of a v a l l e y with varied resources capable, with proper planning, of supporting our population for years to come. 94  The project s t a f f  advocated:  [l] resource management for multiple use of multi-resources based on the  56  concept of sustained  yield;  [2] e x p l i c i t involvement of the l o c a l community i n resource-use planning; [3] planning ahead of development as an economic and ecological investment for the future; and [4] more intensive u t i l i z a t i o n of a lesser volume of extracted resources.' Obviously  7  the basic objective was  to achieve long-term well-being for the  l o c a l residents, and recommendations were made on the basis of the above four p r i n c i p l e s . The recommendations were: [1] to form a l o c a l resource committee, composed of six l o c a l government agencies and six elected l o c a l residents to be responsible for both budget and j u r i s d i c t i o n over natural resources i n the v a l l e y , and for h i r i n g a resource manager; [2] to e s t a b l i s h planning and management process, including a resident multiple-use resource manager to implement planning and oversee management, and a m u l t i - d i s c i p l i n a r y term to develop resource f o l i o s required for the preparation of long-term development plans; [3] to lower the allowable annual cut i n order to prevent further ecological overcommitment of the v a l l e y to industry and to protect e c o l o g i c a l l y f r a g i l e forest s i t e s ; [4] to i n s t i t u t e a system of r u r a l woodlots, which would ensure q u a l i f i e d l o c a l residents a long-term lease of woodlots under a set of regulations and supervision of the Forest Service, so that l o c a l residents can obtain access to p u b l i c f o r e s t lands; [5] to have government implement the major 1955 recommendations of the B r i t i s h Columbia Forest Service, including access road construction and maintenance, and tree marking for s e l e c t i v e logging, so that sensible resource management w i l l be ensured; [6] to reinvest a l l the stumpage from the v a l l e y i n t o l o c a l management through the resource committee;  resource  [7] to construct a small product m i l l i n order to minimize timber wastes, create job opportunities and increase l o c a l value added i n the valley; [8] to create the V a l h a l l a Nature Conservancy Area, and preserve i t s natural environment for r e c r e a t i o n a l use; [9] to use non-salable  timber wastes as f u e l ;  57  [10] to e s t a b l i s h a finger-joint plant i n order to achieve further close u t i l i z a t i o n of timber resource; and [11] to renegotiate the government's a r t i f i c i a l l y low chip p r i c e i n the West Kootenays, so that i t w i l l be economically f e a s i b l e to u t i l i z e c u r r e n t l y unused timber resource.' 8  In 1976, two years after the project, a resource committee had been granted (see recommendation [1]) but none of the other recommendations had been implemented."  In 1983, the Valhalla area was designated as a  p r o v i n c i a l wilderness park (see recommendation [8]).  However, the v a l l e y  community has to the present not been granted control over their own destiny as described i n the report.  In the "Preface to the Second E d i t i o n , " one of  the authors wrote: Two years ago, we had just spent $50,000.00 of the taxpayers' money and f e l t obliged to provide our report to every government bureaucrat, p o l i t i c i a n and university forester who might be i n f l u e n t i a l enough to help us to implement our recommendations. As a result, a l o t of government bureaucrats, p o l i t i c i a n s and university foresters have copies of t h i s report c o l l e c t i n g dust on their bookshelves. They t o l d us that we had done a good job, but were "pretty naive" i f we thought that we could control our own destiny. (Which was pretty astute of them because that i s p r e c i s e l y what t h i s book i s a b o u t . ) 100  According to Shadrack, that " i s where f u l l implementation of the F i n a l Report e n d s . "  101  In December, 1975, one and half years a f t e r the project,  the government of the New Democratic Party, which had granted $50,000 to the project, was defeated and the Social Credit government, which Shadrack describes "holds to what i s known as a 'free enterprise' s p i r i t , " since been i n o f f i c e .  1 0 2  has  This government "has removed the BCFS [ B r i t i s h  Columbia Forest Service] staff and o f f i c e i n New Denver [which i s located i n the v a l l e y ] and given j u r i s d i c t i o n over the v a l l e y to the Nelson o f f i c e outside the Slocan PSYU."  103  The present government has been thus rather  58  h o s t i l e to the recommendations of the F i n a l Report.  Although he regards  t h i s as a p a r t i a l reason, Shadrack thinks that the F i n a l Report has to be implemented primarily because the project s t a f f did not pay attention to the basic p o l i t i c a l structure of the province. c r i t i c i z e s the F i n a l Report for lacking implementability  failed  sufficient  Shadrack  arguing that "good  thoughts without a means to enforce them are nothing more than wishful thinking."  1 0 4  However, the Slocan Project, despite l i m i t e d implementation, was total failure.  We should look at how  not a  the F i n a l Report has performed an  educational r o l e not only within the v a l l e y but also i n the province of B r i t i s h Columbia and possibly even i n a larger area.  In the "Preface to the  Second E d i t i o n , " one of the authors states: Once we had squandered our f i r s t p r i n t i n g on the powers that be, we began to get requests for the report from v i l l a g e s , Indian Bands, conservationists, regional d i s t r i c t s — a l l sorts of people around B. C. It seems that other people have had the same idea and would l i k e to use the report as a sort of framework to control t h e i r own d e s t i n y . 1 0  5  We have, i n the past, t r a v e l l e d to various places around the Province to discuss t h i s report, and are w i l l i n g to do so again i f r e q u e s t e d . 106  People who  had been involved i n the Slocan Project formed the Valley  Resource Society, and continued the F i n a l R e p o r t.  1 07  their e f f o r t to push the proposals made i n  It seems that they learned much by doing a l l these,  and contributed to an increase i n the awareness of the constraints facing the sort of planning they favoured as well as i n environmental awareness i n the v a l l e y community.  For example, much of the experience and knowledge of  the Slocan Project seems to have been incorporated into the Slocan Valley Watershed A l l i a n c e (SVWA), which was  formed i n 1981  requiring "comprehensive, sustainable planning"  and has been active i n  of the v a l l e y .  1 0 8  The SVWA  59  i s an important actor i n the B r i t i s h Columbia Watershed Protection A l l i a n c e (BCWPA), which was  established i n the For Love of Water (FLOW) Conference  held i n the Slocan Valley i n 1984 .  10 9  The BCWPA, having various  p a r t i c i p a n t s including " v i l l a g e s , Indian t r i b a l councils, watershed groups, improvement d i s t r i c t s , and i n d i v i d u a l s , "  1 1 0  aims at achieving good watershed  management throughout B r i t i s h Columbia by inducing "more l o c a l awareness" and forming "a broad grassroots p o l i t i c a l f o r c e . "  1 1 1  In t h i s way,  larger  netwroks are also being b u i l t and maintained. We can learn much from the Slocan Project, even from their f a i l u r e . One  of the implications drawn from their f a i l u r e i n f u l l implementation i s  that we ought to pay more attention to what can be implemented by l o c a l residents even without the support of the c e n t r a l authority. consistent with the "balanced strategy of c h a n g e "  112  of b i o r e g i o n a l i s t s (for  b i o r e g i o n a l i s t s ' notion of region, see Chapter V (2)), who many ideas with the Slocan Project s t a f f .  This i s  seem to share  Aberley t e l l s us that:  Bioregional practice thus becomes a v i t a l mix of changing the existing control structure whenever possible, while at the same time building regional a l t e r n a t i v e s independent of government s u p p o r t . 113  We can also learn that i t i s necessary to b u i l d a network of l o c a l e f f o r t s and form a united front, i n order to r e a l i z e d e c e n t r a l i s t s ' proposals. Project s t a f f became aware of this necessity by 1976.  According  to the  "Preface to the Second E d i t i o n " : In the past two years we have come to understand that the problems facing our community are not unique i n B. C . — t h a t Smithers' SPEC i s right i n saying, "Do you think you can have l o c a l control while we can't?" No, of course we can't, and i t i s our intention, through t h i s r e p r i n t , to share what we've learned with people l i k e u s . 1 1 4  It should be noted that the Slocan Project has performed a powerful educational r o l e by enhancing awareness of the constraints facing  The  60  d e c e n t r a l i s t s and by disseminating a new  way of thinking about the  r e l a t i o n s h i p between a community and i t s resource base, both within and outside of the v a l l e y .  The F i n a l Report deserves particular attention i n  that i t provides most valuable concepts concerning a l o c a l economy and resource management based on the perspective of l o c a l residents. This point i s to be further analyzed i n the following section.  (4)  Viewpoint of a Local Community  As viewed i n the previous section, the Slocan Project produced the F i n a l Report for the l o c a l community and demanded high-degree autonomy for the v a l l e y community i n l o c a l resource management i n the form of a joint resident-agency resource committee.  This was contrary to the t r a d i t i o n a l  means of inducing regional economic growth by i n v i t i n g large c a p i t a l investment  from outside.  The Slocan community was by no means a r i c h  subregion i n terms of average household project.  1 1 5  income at the time of the  Nevertheless, the F i n a l Report d i d not recommend such a  t r a d i t i o n a l way  to induce economic growth.  This i s because a l o c a l  viewpoint, which gave p r i o r i t y to the long-term welfare of community residents, was f i r m l y maintained throughout  the project.  According to the F i n a l Report, three steps are necessary for ensuring sound management i n resource development i n a wilderness area: [l] D e f i n i t i o n of the area and i t s resources; [2] Investigation i n t o the " i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between a l l of the area's resources" and determination of i t s "expendable surpluses"; and [3] U t i l i z a t i o n of "those surpluses for economic g a i n . "  1 1 6  The authors of the F i n a l Report referred to change i n the relationship  61  between humankind and i t s e c o l o g i c a l resource base.  They saw that e x i s t i n g  resource management remained within the t r a d i t i o n a l framework and f a i l e d to keep up with that s i g n i f i c a n t change. Development of the Slocan Valley began at a time when the depletion of i t s natural wealth appeared impossible, and the second step was skipped. Today, however, forest technology and the demand for timber has escalated to a point where management agencies can do l i t t l e but catalogue the harvest. These agencies are hampered not only by their workload but, more b a s i c a l l y , by the lack of an accurate appraisal of the expendable surpluses of the whole unit; i n other words, by the lack of information which would have been supplied by the missing second s t e p . 1 1 7  When the second step i s omitted, resource development i s prone to harvest more than the expendable surpluses and can lead to depletion of not only the d i r e c t l y extracted resources but also their e c o l o g i c a l l y r e l a t e d resources. This type of resource development gives p r i o r i t y to economics over ecology, looking for the maximization of economic e f f i c i e n c y . f a m i l i a r description, but i t i s important  This may  look l i k e a  here to consider whose economics  we are talking about and i n whose interest i s this economic e f f i c i e n c y . In a l o c a l community, the o v e r a l l interest of the residents i s often d i f f e r e n t from that of large corporations involved i n the l o c a l economy, notably externally-controlled w e l l - c a p i t a l i z e d ones, even though these companies are major suppliers of job opportunities.  That i s to say, while  the corporations' concerns are l a r g e l y located within the maximization of short-term economic gains, the residents' concerns may  be found i n the  environmental and social costs of i n d u s t r i a l operations and/or the community's economic s t a b i l i t y over a long period of time.  The d i f f e r e n c e  in concerns comes mainly from the difference i n degree of commitment to the l o c a l i t y , i t s place and l i f e , between residents and corporations. In the corporations' perspective, economics has an absolute p r i o r i t y  62  over ecology.  However, when the l o c a l environment i s degraded by  environmental p o l l u t i o n and/or resource depletion as a result of intensive i n d u s t r i a l operations which serve the corporations' economics, i t i s not the external c a p i t a l , but the l o c a l people that are adversely affected. Whenever the area i s no longer economically a t t r a c t i v e , large corporations can leave the area for an a l t e r n a t i v e location. residents, who  In contrast, l o c a l  are well s e t t l e d i n the community, cannot leave i t e a s i l y  without physical and emotional costs.  For a l o c a l community, i t i s a good  ecological environment that constantly provides i t with s u f f i c i e n t l i v e l i h o o d and a comfortable habitat thereby ensuring i t s o v e r a l l welfare, including i t s economic well-being, i n the long run. perspective of the people who  Therefore, from the  l i v e i n the community, good economics i s not  contradictory nor even competitive with good ecology, but the former i s l o g i c a l l y part of the l a t t e r .  Thus from a l o c a l perspective, a good l o c a l  economy can be ensured only when i t s ecological supporting systems are carefully  tended.  The Slocan project was conducted on the e x p l i c i t premise that "good ecology i s good economics."  118  The authors assumed that:  logging w i l l incur either planning expense ahead of development or environmental costs afterwards. We found that planning i s cheaper than r e p a i r . Thus, good ecology equals good economics. 119  It i s apparent that t h i s approach was based on the perspective of the v a l l e y community, not somebody-else's.  The project staff went further and  expressed their b e l i e f that only the l o c a l community could be responsible for e c o l o g i c a l l y sound resource management because the l o c a l residents were most d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d . We believe that only an involved and informed l o c a l populace can e f f e c t i v e l y p a r t i c i p a t e i n ecologically sound resource  63  management and u t i l i z a t i o n .  1 2 0  The l o c a l community represents the only v i s i b l e group with a binding interest i n the long-term sustenance of t h i s v a l l e y ' s resources, for i t i s they who w i l l have to l i v e with the results of our management p o l i c i e s , good or b a d . 1 2 1  It i s on the basis of this philosophy  that the project recommended d i r e c t  p a r t i c i p a t i o n of the v a l l e y community i n resource management and u t i l i z a t i o n through a l o c a l resource committee and r u r a l woodlots. There i s also another reason why  the Slocan Project d i d not recommend  the t r a d i t i o n a l approach to economic growth, that i s , i n v i t a t i o n of large c a p i t a l from the outside.  It i s because the t r a d i t i o n a l approach to  development, especially i n a resource region, i s prone to create dependence of the l o c a l community on a.larger extraregional economy. two ways.  This occurs i n  When the community becomes excessively dependent on the external  economy by expanding i t s staple-export f l e x i b i l i t y and closes future options.  sector, the l o c a l economy loses It i s thus doomed to suffer from i t s  v u l n e r a b i l i t y to p r i c e changes and the advent of substitutes i n the external market.  The community then loses i t s control over i t s own  becomes unable to ensure i t s economic well-being.  future and  A l o c a l community can  develop an excessive dependence on the external economy by s p e c i a l i z a t i o n i n i t s economy by u t i l i z i n g a single natural resource, and by accepting  large  external c a p i t a l investment. It i s l i k e l y that i n the short term a l o c a l community benefits from s p e c i a l i z i n g i n u t i l i z i n g a p a r t i c u l a r well-endowed resources timber, coal or f i s h .  such as  High wages and rapid economic growth can be expected  from s p e c i a l i z a t i o n compared to d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n .  In the long run, however,  specialization, notably the single use of one resource, makes the l o c a l economy excessively export-oriented  and vulnerable to external economic  64  fluctuations.  It i s even possible that the c r u c i a l resource, the only prop  sustaining the l o c a l economy, becomes depleted. l i t t l e c a p a b i l i t y to p e r s i s t absorbing adequate way. unknowns.  The s p e c i a l i z e d economy has  these abrupt disturbances  i n an  This type of economy i s f r a g i l e i n a changing world f u l l of  It i s slow to re-adapt to a new  economic state, and may  f a i l to keep up with change i n the economic climate.  often  This economy i s also  vulnerable to e c o l o g i c a l f l u c t u a t i o n s that affect the key resource.  Thus,  from the l o c a l perspective, l o c a l specialization i s not necessarily good economics i n the long run. Secondly, a small resource community quickly becomes exceedingly dependent on large c a p i t a l when a large corporation i s involved i n resource utilization.  The company soon becomes a major job supplier, and may  even  develop a monopoly p o s i t i o n by l i q u i d a t i n g small l o c a l operators, because i t i s b e t t e r - c a p i t a l i z e d and more competitive.  Naturally, this type of large  corporation behaves with l i t t l e consideration for the well-being of the community when i t s own p r i o r i t y on i t s own  i n t e r e s t i s at stake, because i t has an  economic welfare.  absolute  The more the l o c a l community becomes  dependent upon t h i s kind of externally-controlled corporation, the less control i t can exercise over i t s own subordinated  future and the more i t becomes  to decisions made by someone else outside the community.  the community becomes unable to ensure i t s own  Then  economic future.  Local i n d u s t r i a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and the dominance of large c a p i t a l described above often take place together.  It occurs because the area i s  advantageously endowed with a valuable resource a t t r a c t i n g large corporate investment.  In t h i s case, the investment w i l l l i k e l y be concentrated  i n the  most p r o f i t a b l e aspect of u t i l i z i n g that resource because the corporation w i l l seek to maximize i t s short-term  economic gain.  When the location i s no  65  longer economically a t t r a c t i v e , because of resource depletion or p r i c e changes i n the world market, the corporation can simply leave for another location.  Large corporations, notably multi-national corporations, which  are usually better informed than resource regions, can decide to withdraw whenever necessary, and the community i s then l e f t with an economic disaster.  The l o c a l economy i n t h i s case cannot re-adjust q u i c k l y and  l i k e l y f a i l s to p e r s i s t . Ocean F a l l s , a small i s o l a t e d town on the coast of B r i t i s h Columbia, provides a most d i s t i n c t example of the tragedy r e s u l t i n g from l o c a l i n d u s t r i a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and external c a p i t a l dominance.  The town started  as a pulp centre i n 1906 and specialized i n pulp and paper production. Ocean F a l l s was described as "one of the oldest of company towns,"  122  and  Crown Zellerbach, a San Francisco-based pulp and paper company, had dominated the town u n t i l i t withdrew i n 1973. The company decided the withdrawal  simply because the operation was no longer p r o f i t a b l e .  The  town's paper m i l l was obsolete and q u a l i t y timber i n the area was running short.  Since Ocean F a l l s had no other industry besides pulp and paper  operations, to shut down the m i l l meant the end of the town.  When Crown  Zellerbach announced i n 1972 to the people of the town that "their town was to be destroyed within l i t t l e more than a y e a r , "  1 2 3  they had no way to  influence the company's d e c i s i o n . Despite a high labour t u r n o v e r ,  124  there  were well-settled people, for whom i t was extremely hard to leave the community.  Answering a magazine reporter, a town resident said: Now we know that when we leave we w i l l never see t h i s place again and neither w i l l anyone else. The kids that were born here and the ones that grew up i n t h i s town w i l l never be able to come back and walk f a m i l i a r streets again. When they f i l l out a form asking where they were born, they w i l l name a town that i s no m o r e . 125  66  Another resident s a i d : One of the hardest things about i s that t h i s [Ocean F a l l s ] i s a to say goodbye because you know you know casual friends here as friends i n the c i t y .  this [saying goodbye], . . . close community. I t i s hard people so well. I would say well as you'd know your best  1 2 6  At the very l a s t moment, the p r o v i n c i a l government stepped i n and bought the paper m i l l and other f a c i l i t i e s as a social measure thereby saving the town from e x t i n c t i o n .  The New Democratic Party government, however, was defeated  by the S o c i a l Credit Party i n 1975, and the new government a c t u a l l y closed the m i l l down i n 1980 f o r a f i n a n c i a l reason.  Again the community could do  nothing to influence the decision made outside Ocean F a l l s . the community was gone.  Then most of  In the mid-sixties, the town's population was  3,500, and i t decreased as Crown Zellerbach scaled down the operation. It was 1,500 i n 1972, when the company announced a t o t a l shut down, and i t became less then 700 i n the following year. m i l l and people were c a l l e d back.  In 1980, when the government shut down  the m i l l , 1,800 people were i n the town. residents was only f i f t y .  1 2 7  Then the government bought the  In 1985, the number of the  Ocean F a l l s t o t a l l y lacked what I c a l l  viability. Figure 8 presents a summary of the conceptual components of the v i a b i l i t y of a l o c a l economy.  In order to achieve long-term welfare of the  l o c a l community, i t i s indispensable to establish a viable economy within its territory.  A v i a b l e economy i s sustained by both sensible resource  management which ensures a sound ecological life-supporting systems and economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e which helps the l o c a l economy survive fluctuations i n the external economy.  E f f o r t s to maximize the portion of l o c a l resources i n  the process of production and minimize the waste of resource u t i l i z a t i o n  Figure 8  Components of a Viable Economy  VIABLE REGION (The welfare of the community i n the long run)  VIABLE ECONOMY (full utilization of l o c a l  ECOLOGICALLY  resources ECONOMIC SELF-RELIANCE  without waste)  SENSIBLE RESOURCE  (locally-owned business, d i v e r s i f i e d industry, high l o c a l value added, self-contained economy)  MANAGEMENT (expendable surpluses, s u s t a i n a b i l i t y , development and u t i l i z a t i o n planning, ecosystem as a u n i t : consideration f o r multiple resources)  DIRECT INVOLVEMENT OF THE COMMUNITY (accountability, l o c a l  perspective)  68  characterize the linkage between a sound l o c a l ecosystem and a s e l f - r e l i a n t l o c a l economy.  E c o l o g i c a l l y sensible resource management means managing  l o c a l natural resources as an ecosystem, taking adequate account of interdependent r e l a t i o n s h i p s . supporting  The goal i s to keep e c o l o g i c a l l i f e -  systems from breakdown and help biogeochemical cycles f u l f i l l  themselves.  An indispensable  step toward t h i s goal i s to determine the  expendable surplus of each renewable resource, economy informed of this surplus.  and to keep the supply-based  Harvests of natural resources  are to be  c a r e f u l l y monitored so that they w i l l be c a r r i e d out on a sustainable basis. Local economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e i s sustained by l o c a l ownership of economic a c t i v i t y and d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n of industry.  The ultimate goal i s to maximize  s e l f - r e l i a n c e i n the l o c a l community under a c e r t a i n set of conditions, for example, a desired l i f e s t y l e .  As e x p l i c i t l y expressed i n the Final Report,  both sensible resource management and economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e are underpinned and enhanced by the d i r e c t involvement of the l o c a l community.  The  p a r t i c i p a t i o n of the l o c a l residents ensures a c c o u n t a b i l i t y i n resource management, which protects l o c a l resources  from depletion.  In order to  ensure sensible resource management and thereby prevent unhappy surprises, a l o c a l community may  need to be provided with expertise on l o c a l ecosystems  provided by external researchers and t r a d i t i o n a l and modern knowledge.  s c i e n t i s t s , i n addition to i t s own  What i s important i s that the involvement  of a l o c a l community consistently encourages the use of such knowledge i n practice for the purpose of keeping the l o c a l ecosystems functioning i n an adequate way.  This i s because i t i s l o c a l inhabitants who  have to l i v e with  the r e s u l t s of resource management i n the long run, whatever they may  be.  Local residents, on the other hand, contribute much to economic s e l f reliance by p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n d i v e r s i f i e d locally-owned  business rather than  69  working f o r a large extraregionally controlled corporation. The Slocan Project staff seem to have learned much from the h i s t o r y of mining i n the Kootenays.  The mining industry i n the Kootenays provided an  example of regional i n a b i l i t y to control i t s own economic well-being.  future and ensure i t s  It demonstrated the boom and b u s t ,  v u l n e r a b i l i t y of the regional economy. resources are renewable.  129  and  1 2 8  Unlike mineral resources, forest  Nevertheless, forest resources can be depleted by  timber mining and history can be repeated i n the forest sector.  If t h i s  e c o l o g i c a l d i s a s t e r takes place, the community w i l l be economically devastated.  The ecological life-supporting system of the forest resource i s  what the v a l l e y community depends on for i t s welfare.  From the perspective  of the v a l l e y community, ecological depletion must be prevented by any means.  Furthermore, the project studied what should be done i n order to  increase the v i a b i l i t y of the v a l l e y economy from a long-term perspective. The F i n a l Report advocated multiple use of multiple resources, not a single use (e.g., export of lumber and planks) of only one resource, timber.  The  authors made recommendations on the awareness of the significance of d i v e r s i f i e d industry and the danger of developing dependence on the external market system.  For example, r u r a l woodlots and a product m i l l were intended  not only to create new  job opportunities and r e a l i z e e c o l o g i c a l l y sound  resource u t i l i z a t i o n but also to increase l o c a l economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e by replacing some imports with locally-produced commodities. As reviewed  130  i n the preceding section, the project staff made eleven  recommendations i n the Final Report.  Figure 9 presents a summary of the  recommendations and their associated objectives. The v i a b i l i t y of the l o c a l economy i s achieved on the foundation of a sound ecological resource base  Figure 9 D i r e c t l y Associated  A  I n d i r e c t l y Linked (May not d i r e c t l y intended but connected i n a way)  OBJECTIVES FOR A VIABLE LOCAL ECONOMY -  O  Recommendations and Intended Objectives  1. E c o l o g i c a l l y Sound Resource Management/ Utilization (a) Management Accountability  O  O  (b) Management Practice  O  O  (c) Reduction of Resource Extraction  A  O  O  A  O  A  o  o  O  o  (d) Resource U t i l i z a t i o n without Waste  o  A  A  A  o  O  o  o  A  A  o  A  2. D i v e r s i f i e d and Independent Industry (a) Multiple Use of Multiple Resources (b) Locally-Owned Business  o.  o  o  A  O  (c) High Local Value Added (d) Import Substitution  A  A  A  o  A  o  o  o  A  A  o  o  A  o  A  A  o  o  71  and a d i v e r s i f i e d and independent  l o c a l industry.  In order to ensure the  former, the project staff thought i t necessary to have e c o l o g i c a l l y sensible resource management under e x p l i c i t a c c o u n t a b i l i t y , supported by the community residents.  In order to achieve the l a t t e r , they advocated  d i v e r s i t y i n resource u t i l i z a t i o n , l o c a l ownership, high l o c a l value added and increased economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e of the community, replacing some imports with l o c a l products.  Obviously these objectives are dependent on  each other. In response to their questionnaire, the project staff received a l e t t e r from an inhabitant of the v a l l e y .  In t h i s l e t t e r he wrote:  I have l i v e d on a farm on Slocan Lake almost since white man time started here. ... I'd l i k e to give you my summary of the Slocan Valley. The area i s a very desirable location for the simple business of l i v i n g . . . . The nature of the a g r i c u l t u r a l land i s such that i t lends i t s e l f very favorably to subsistence farming. [If "logged i n a s c i e n t i f i c and sensible manner,"] [ t ] h i s perpetual timber crop would insure the subsistence farmers of steady employment to provide the necessities that the farm can't produce. It seems to me that t h i s makes for a very happy s i t u a t i o n and once i t i s established, most of the other d e s i r a b l e s w i l l automatically follow. On the other hand, i f the timber i s not sensibly harvested, we can f i n d ourselves i n a very sorry state i n the not too distant f u t u r e . 1 3 1  The authors of the F i n a l Report concluded that a "rural way of l i f e "  based  on subsistence farming and supported by f o r e s t r y was the l o c a l l y chosen lifestyle: Most of the people who l i v e i n t h i s v a l l e y do so because they enjoy a r u r a l way of l i f e . The small farm holding has t r a d i t i o n a l l y provided the framework for this l i f e s t y l e i n the Slocan Valley, just as the f o r e s t industry has been the support s t r u c t u r e . 1 3 2  We believe that the small farm i s a v i a b l e i n s i t u t i o n , and that with some care i t can be preserved within our valley, as a s o c i a l l y and economically sound way of l i f e . 1 3 3  What the project staff sought was to protect t h i s way of l i f e , or the steady  72  state of the community.  The project staff observed that the r e l a t i o n s h i p  between human beings and their ecological resource base was no longer i d e n t i c a l with what i t had been when the v a l l e y began to be developed.  As  seen e a r l i e r i n this chapter, they thought that the depletion of the v a l l e y ' s natural wealth was no longer unimaginable, unlike thinking i n the early days.  On the basis of t h i s observation, they determined that e x i s t i n g  resource management and u t i l i z a t i o n could not be sustained i n the long run, and proposed an a l t e r n a t i v e approach which was both e c o l o g i c a l l y and economically  sound when seen from the l o c a l perspective.  They made  recommendations to achieve a v i a b l e l o c a l economy, ensuring the o v e r a l l welfare of the community i n the long run.  It deserves special a t t e n t i o n  that the Slocan Project staff presented an a l t e r n a t i v e view of economics from the perspective of the l o c a l community.  73  CHAPTER IV THE CONCEPT OF CARRYING CAPACITY  (1)  Introduction  The purpose of this chapter i s to c l a r i f y and explore the concept of carrying capacity and to define a framework for regional planning based on the concept. After this introduction, the carrying-capacity  concept which originated  i n bioecology, i s b r i e f l y reviewed i n order to c l a r i f y i t .  In the following  section, I look at how the concept has been extended and applied to planning.  This i s followed by my c r i t i c i s m of existing applications of  carrying capacity to growth-control planning. an appropriate  Emphasis i s put on r e a l i z i n g  meaning for petroleum subsidization and interregional trade.  Based on this c r i t i c i s m , the f i n a l section proposes a capacity concept f o r regional economic a n a l y s i s .  This carrying-capacity  society e x p l i c i t l y incorporates  concept applied to human  such variables as technology, l e v e l of  l i v i n g , and interregional transfer of commodities, into the scope of analysis. bioecology.  It i s unlike the o r i g i n a l model of carrying capacity i n I define the concept as applied to regional planning and  present an argument concerning the components of " i n t r i n s i c " and "enhanced" carrying capacities of a region.  74  (2)  Concept i n Bioecology  The concept of carrying capacity originated i n population dynamics i n biology.  It i s observed that when yeast, for example, i s introduced i n t o a  continuous  culture i t s biomass increases, gradually reducing the rate of  increase, u n t i l i t i s s t a b i l i z e s at a c e r t a i n point. t h i s behaviour  i s that environmental  The explanation of  resistance ( i n this case, detrimental  factors produced by yeast i t s e l f ) increases as the biomass of yeast increases.  Also i n a f i e l d population, a similar behaviour  1 3 4  i s observed.  For example, sheep were introduced on the island of Tasmania sometime around 1800,  and the number, after reaching almost 2 m i l l i o n around 1850,  fluctuated around 1.7 m i l l i o n u n t i l the 1930s, when this was reported.  Some  of the fluctuations after 1860 are considered to be "due to v a r i a t i o n i n climatic f a c t o r s . "  1 3 5  Carrying capacity usually designates the l e v e l of  population where growth becomes stagnant as seen i n these two examples, and implies that the population size of a species i s ultimately c o n t r o l l e d by the limitations of the environment supporting i t .  A t y p i c a l d e f i n i t i o n may  be: "the maximum number of individuals that can be supported i n a given environment," balance."  137  136  or "the t o t a l population the environment can support at  Since the f i r s t d e f i n i t i o n , by using the word support, implies  the notion of balance (that i s , no catastrophic change i n the population i n the long run), these two d e f i n i t i o n s are substantially i d e n t i c a l .  The  notions of maximum and at balance are essential to the concept of c a r r y i n g capacity. In the textbooks of bioecology, the concept of carrying capacity i s usually introduced i n company with the presentation of the l o g i s t i c model, a well-known mathematical representation of population growth with a limitation.  In this simple model, population growth i s represented by an S-  75  shaped form: "the population increases slowly at f i r s t  . . . , then more  r a p i d l y ; but i t soon slows down gradually as the environmental resistance increases percentagewise . . . , u n t i l a more or less equilibrium l e v e l i s reached and m a i n t a i n e d .  1,138  This l e v e l of equilibrium i s i d e n t i f i e d with  carrying capacity, as the following quotations  show:  For each set of environmental conditions, a l e v e l of population density e x i s t s at which b i r t h and death rates exactly balance each other and the population neither grows nor d e c l i n e s . This point of population equilibrium i s referred to as the carrying capacity of the environment (K). 1 39  The t o t a l resources a v a i l a b l e divided by the minimum maintenance requirement of each individual (P/M) represents the equilibrium number of individuals i n the p o p u l a t i o n — often r e f e r r e d to as the "carrying capacity" of the environment (K) f o r that p o p u l a t i o n . 140  As seen above, t h i s simple model descibes a theoretical equilibrium determined by the t o t a l amount of the resources available and the minimum b i o l o g i c a l requirements of a c e r t a i n species i n a p a r t i c u l a r environment. This basic theory, without modification, i s not useful when applied to human society.  This i s because i t i s seldom meaningful to study human carrying  capacity without regard to, f o r example, l e v e l s of l i v i n g and technology. However, t h i s does not mean that carrying capacity i s a meaningless concept for the purpose of studying human society.  It i s possible to modify the  basic concept, as I attempt l a t e r i n t h i s chapter,  so that i t can be applied  to society i n a meaningful way, that i s , so that i t s essential message— " l i m i t s to g r o w t h " — w i l l  be u n d e r s t o o d .  141  I understand carrying capacity as the level of population  that  indicates the c a p a b i l i t y of an environment to accommodate a c e r t a i n species. When the number of i n d i v i d u a l s exceeds that l e v e l , the l i m i t a t i o n of environmental c a p a b i l i t y becomes obvious, for example, i n shortages of food  76  and shelter. decrease.  The population i s then adversely affected and s t a r t s to  The farther the population passes the boundary of s u s t a i n a b i l i t y ,  the worse are the effects on i t .  In conclusion, my d e f i n i t i o n of carrying  capacity as applied to non-human species i s as follows: carrying capacity designates  the size of population of a c e r t a i n species possible to be  sustained i n the long run i n a given environment.  (3)  Applications to Planning  The meaning of carrying capacity within the context of natural  resource  management i s well i l l u s t r a t e d i n the famous story about the herdsmen's c a t t l e and the pasture.  It was reintroduced by H a r d i n  as the "tragedy of the commons."  1 4 2  and i s today known  Godschalk wrote i n 1974: "While only  recently applied to the urban and regional context, carrying capacity has a long history i n resource management."  143  W i l l a r d argues that the key  implication of "carrying capacity" i s the "phrase 'without s t r a i n i n g , ' " observing that the concept "has been used to refer to the number of cars a freeway can carry smoothly, to the weight of a structure that may rest on a given substrate, and to the i n t e r e s t an i n d i v i d u a l can be expected to bear on a l o a n . "  He applies the notion of carrying capacity to state park  1 4 4  design and planning, and argues that " [ i ] n terms of carrying capacity, planning should maximize the number of people enjoying the a c t i v i t i e s  [such  as hiking, camping, nature study and f i s h i n g ] without s t r a i n i n g the environment." designate  145  Here the concept of carrying capacity i s extended to  the number of people who enjoy recreational a c t i v i t i e s i n a given  environment.  In the f i e l d of park management, carrying capacity was  referred to i n the early 1 9 6 0 s .  146  The a p p l i c a t i o n of carrying capacity to  park design and management, an e x p l i c i t expansion of the meaning of carrying  77  capacity, appears to have encouraged i t s further application to the urban and regional c o n t e x t .  14  7  By the early 1970s, carrying capacity started to be e x p l i c i t l y employed i n urban and regional development planning.  Here the concept of carrying  capacity i s applied both to natural and human-made systems within the context of growth management and land-use regulation.  The Carrying  Capacity  Concept as a Planning Tool by Schneider et a l . gives a good summary of this type of carrying-capacity analysis i n planning, with brief descriptions of twenty-two a p p l i c a t i o n s i n the United States.  According  to them:  Carrying capacity, as the term i s generally used by planners, may be defined as the a b i l i t y of a natural or man-made system to absorb population growth or physical development without s i g n i f i c a n t degradation or breakdown. Carrying capacity analysis, as a planning t o o l , studies the e f f e c t s of growth—amount, type, location, q u a l i t y — o n the natural and man-made environment i n order to i d e n t i f y c r i t i c a l thresholds beyond which public health, safety, or welfare w i l l be threatened by serious environmental problems unless changes are made i n public investment, governmental regulation, or human b e h a v i o r . 148  This kind of a p p l i c a t i o n emphasizes the capacity of human-made systems, from p h y s i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e such as sewerage and transportation, to s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s such as administrative and p o l i t i c a l e n t i t i e s .  Godschalk, f o r  example, emphasizes the necessity to develop the notion of " i n s t i t u t i o n a l carrying capacity" or " s o c i a l l y determined capacity" i n order to " l i n k the demand for s o c i a l resources, supply." ' 14  According  such as planning, with the a v a i l a b l e  to Godschalk, " [ i ] n designing a state growth p o l i c y ,  for example, i t would be necessary to explore the complex of laws, and people c o n s t i t u t i n g the state growth management r e s o u r c e s . "  150  agencies, In the  same vein, f o r example, Rahenkamp and McLeister advocate a f i s c a l capacity analysis i n order to assess the f i s c a l impact of new growth on a community,  78  which i s firmly associated with public w e l f a r e .  1 5 1  The reason for this  emphasis on human systems i s that an area's carrying capacity can be substantially altered by human intervention: by introducing new technology, increasing public investment, or regulating human behaviour, f o r example. When applied to humans, carrying-capacity analysis would be meaningless i f human-made systems were excluded from the scope.  (4)  Limitations of Current  Applications  It i s said that carrying-capacity analysis, when applied to urban and regional planning,  suffers several l i m i t a t i o n s . Schneider et a l . and Odell  separately point out major drawbacks such as d i f f i c u l t i e s "in model construction, data c o l l e c t i o n and output i n t e r p r e t a t i o n .  1 5 2  Schneider et  a l . even state that: For reasons of time, money, lack of p o l i t i c a l commitment, or the sheer d i f f i c u l t y i n t r y i n g to assess carrying capacity l i m i t s , i t may not be f e a s i b l e or even advisable for many planning departments to undertake capacity s t u d i e s . 1 5 3  Nevertheless,  they conclude that "as a way of thinking about planning,  carrying capacity i s u s e f u l . "  1 5 4  This i s a very suggestive comment, which  l i k e l y implies more than what the authors i n i t i a l l y intended. capacity was o r i g i n a l l y a conceptual  Carrying  representation of " l i m i t s to growth,"  and i s therefore capable of underpinning an approach to regional planning which i s appropriate for an era where the myth of Nature Benign i s no longer valid.  Current a p p l i c a t i o n , however, does not appear to l e t the capacity  concept f u l f i l l i t s i n t r i n s i c meaning as an a n t i t h e s i s of the "demand-based" orientation.  In other words, e x i s t i n g studies are located within the  growth-oriented mentality, and do not challenge the dominant view of nature. In the current a p p l i c a t i o n of carrying capacity to urban and regional  79  planning, population growth and/or economic growth are presupposed, and  this  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c seems to impose the most c r i t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n on carryingcapacity studies i n achieving both economically  and e c o l o g i c a l l y viable  communities within environments that are no longer "benign."  It i s true  that capacity studies c a l l for attention to the natural environment and supposed to produce a supply-based approach.  are  However, the concept has been  applied to growth p o l i c y , though within the context of " c o n t r o l l i n g " or "managing" growth.  In t h i s application, "growth" comes f i r s t i n the mind-  set, and natural environment i s assessed within the framework of growth, as the following quotation shows: It [Carrying capacity] focuses attention on the a b i l i t y of the natural environment to support growth. It suggests that developments should respect the functioning of the natural processes of the environment. 155  What underlies e x i s t i n g capacity studies i s the assumption of growth, which was  established on the basis of the Nature-Benign worldview and has been  taken for granted.  The major concern of these studies i s therefore how  to  locate or accommodate planned/assumed/expected growth without t r i g g e r i n g adverse e f f e c t s within c e r t a i n temporal and spatial scopes, or at best to modify expected growth so that i t can be achieved  i n an economically  how and  technologically f e a s i b l e fashion without s i g n i f i c a n t adverse e f f e c t s on the natural environment.  The concern i s not located i n , for example, exploring  the p o s s i b i l i t y of r e s t r u c t u r i n g the present  economy, to make i t compatible  with e c o l o g i c a l requirements u t i l i z i n g the framework of carrying capacity. The concept of carrying capacity i s thus currently employed as a tool of growth p o l i c y , and f a i l s to serve as a foundation oriented economy.  to redirect our growth-  In t h i s respect, Odell's c r i t i c i s m i s suggestive:  Any i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of an area's carrying or holding capacity i s an i n v i t a t i o n to use or f i l l that capacity. Carrying  80  capacity thus becomes almost synonymous with "assimilative capacity." . . . use of the carrying capacity approach can lead to what has been c a l l e d "accommodation planning," under which growth i s assumed and the only question becomes how to accommodate and d i s t r i b u t e i t . 1 5 6  This i s the most c r i t i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the e x i s t i n g a p p l i c a t i o n of the carrying-capacity concept.  What i s necessary i s to r e d i r e c t the concept  away from the currently dominant worldview or growth-oriented mentality. The e x i s t i n g a p p l i c a t i o n i s characterized by:  [ l ] lack of  appropriate  attention to the meaning of i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade i n the analysis, and [2]  lack of assignment of an appropriate meaning to the present human  dependence on f o s s i l f u e l .  These two defects are by no means independent.  They are complementary i n contributing to the l i m i t a t i o n of e x i s t i n g capacity studies.  According  to Simon and Kahn:  Because of increase i n knowledge, the earth's 'carrying capacity' has been increasing throughout the decades and centuries and m i l l e n i a to such an extent that the term 'carrying capacity' has by now no useful meaning. 157  To these thinkers, carrying capacity i s thus almost t o t a l l y manipulatable. However, i t i s necessary to consider what has contributed to the increase i n what they c a l l "the earth's  'carrying capacity.'"  It seems that the main  reason for t h i s increase has been technological innovation and expansion of interregional transfer of goods and materials. the bow,  I agree that the advent of  the introduction of a g r i c u l t u r e and the invention of the wheel, for  example, expanded the earth's carrying capacity.  I a l s o agree that the  technology subsidized by f o s s i l f u e l along with the present massive interregional trade has contributed to the increase i n the number of people that can be temporarily  supported on the planet.  However, I do not agree  that the l a t t e r case i s i d e n t i c a l with an increase i n carrying capacity, because this development, as argued i n preceding  chapters,  cannot be  81  sustained i n the long run and thereby v i o l a t e s one of the most e s s e n t i a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n s of carrying capacity.  At the age of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n ,  production has been expanded i n an unprecedented fashion, by consuming vast amounts of both renewable and nonrenewable natural resources, and discharging wastes exceeding the decomposing a b i l i t y of the natural environment both i n q u a l i t y and quantity. Grain production i n North America i s highly productive i n terms of human labour and today contributes much to sustaining the world population. In 1980, the net export of North America was 131 m i l l i o n tons and "over a hundred countries r e l y on North American g r a i n . "  1 5 8  "North America's  emergence as the world's breadbasket began i n the f o r t i e s , "  1 5 9  when farmers  began "to abandon t r a d i t i o n a l rotations that included s o i l building pastures and hay, i n favor of continuous planting of corn and other row c r o p s , "  1 6 0  and "the o v e r a l l gains i n grain production since mid-century have been impressive."  161  This new grain production i s highly mechanized and  dependent on chemical  f e r t i l i z e r s , which "require substantial amounts of  energy to mine or synthesize and to t r a n s p o r t , pesticides/herbicides. grain production  1,162  and  petroleum-derived  It i s thus very consumptive of f o s s i l f u e l .  This  i s also most dependent on i n t e r r e g i o n a l transportation for  i t s input (machines, fuels and chemicals) and output (grain).  This p r a c t i c e  w i l l collapse even before the depletion of f o s s i l f u e l because i t i s not environmentally  sustainable.  For example, Shinohara c r i t i c i z e s  this type of  production of putting emphasis on maximum y i e l d rather than sustainable maximum y i e l d and obtaining high y i e l d s at the cost of the s o i l f e r t i l i t y for  the f u t u r e .  1 6 3  According  to Rees:  we export "grain", but are not accustomed to thinking of i t as the phosphates, n i t r a t e s , organic matter, etc. e f f e c t i v e l y removed from the s o i l i n the process. In t h i s sense,  82  agriculture can be very much a form of mining, and just as non-renewable. (E.g., we've removed 60% of the "natural" nutrients and 50% of the organic matter from p r a i r i e soils.) 1 6 4  S o i l erosion i s a related problem which i s undermining the f e r t i l i t y of land.  Brown t e l l s us that: Fourteen years of data gathered at the Missouri A g r i c u l t u r a l Experiment Station show land planted to a corn-wheat-clover rotation losing an average of 2.7 tons of t o p s o i l per acre annually through erosion, whereas comparable land planted continuously to corn l o s t 19.7 tons per acre annually. While the f i r s t loss i s well within the tolerance range [within the natural rate of s o i l formation] established by s o i l s c i e n t i s t s , the l a t t e r leads to a progressive thinning of the t o p s o i l layer and a steady d e c l i n e i n inherent land productivity. 16 5  Simon and Kahn state that "the food supply has been improving since at least World War  II, as measured by grain p r i c e s , production per consumer,  and the famine death r a t e . "  1 6 6  In my view, however, this does not mean an  increase i n the earth's carrying capacity because i n d u s t r i a l a g r i c u l t u r a l production, which has contributed much to the recent grain production, i s not sustainable i n environmental terms i n the long run.  The recent grain  production i n the p r a i r i e s i s undermining the earth's resource base, rather than increasing i t s carrying capacity as Simon and Kahn suggest. Big  c i t i e s , t o t a l l y unsustainable with l o c a l resources, are today  a c t u a l l y "sustained."  This i s , however, the beginning of the problem.  In  order to sustain these c i t i e s , a tremendous amount of commodities such as food, fuels and i n d u s t r i a l materials must be imported. forwarded to somewhere else.  Thus the b i l l i s  When the s i z e of the b i l l goes beyond the  c a p a b i l i t y of the hinterland, the l a t t e r w i l l suffer environmental degradation.  Furthermore, c i t i e s have to deal with the problem of negative  output, or of wastes.  Because of the quantity and kind of wastes r e s u l t i n g  from the imported input and a p a r t i a l loss of functioning of biogeochemical  83  cycles inherent to the natural environment, waste accumulation becomes a serious problem.  C i t i e s have to pay the b i l l i n the form of a i r p o l l u t i o n  or again forward i t by constructing t a l l smokestacks r e s u l t i n g i n a c i d p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n a broad area.  It i s therefore misleading to argue that the  carrying capacity of a particular area has been expanded based only on the observation that i t appears to "sustain" a larger population than before. If we wish, today we can even build a c i t y i n the middle of a desert by employing innovative technology and importing necessary materials and f u e l s , food and water by interregional transportation. However, this does not mean that the area's carrying capacity increases from zero.  Carrying-capacity  analysis lacking s u f f i c i e n t attention to petroleum-dependent technology and i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade can thus produce a most misleading r e s u l t . According to Godschalk and Parker, a planning method for environmental carrying-capacity analysis i s composed of four steps: [ l ] completing resource inventories; [2] d e f i n i n g the relationships between each resource and i t s expected or p o t e n t i a l uses; [3] d e f i n i n g the most c r i t i c a l resource, that i s , the l i m i t i n g factor i n growth; and [4] studying the remaining resources to see i f they impose a d d i t i o n a l carrying capacity l i m i t s of their own. 167  The c a r r y i n g capacity of a study area i s thus determined of  by the a v a i l a b i l i t y  the l i m i t i n g resource defined at Step [3] with consideration of the  r e s u l t of the study at Step [4].  In i n d u s t r i a l society i t i s most l i k e l y  that water, a i r or land w i l l be defined as the l i m i t i n g resource, while i t i s less l i k e l y that food and f u e l w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d , although they are a l s o critical.  This i s because at the present time i t i s often the case that the  former group cannot e a s i l y be supplied by interregional trade while the l a t t e r group can be imported i n an economically f e a s i b l e way.  I t i s true  84  that water can be supplied from outside as i s notably done i n C a l i f o r n i a , but water transfer i s highly dependent on geography and cannot be compared to the interregional transfer of food and f u e l . air  In growth accommodation,  and water are uniquely c r i t i c a l as agents to "wipe o f f " wastes, both  heat and matter, r e s u l t i n g from i n d u s t r i a l operations and people's d a i l y life. Nieswand and Pizor advocate "current carrying c a p a c i t y " — " t h e measure of a region's a b i l i t y to accommodate growth and development within l i m i t s defined by e x i s t i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and natural resource c a p a b i l i t i e s . " argue that i t i s "determined by three f a c t o r s — w a t e r and a i r q u a l i t y . "  According  They  supply, water q u a l i t y ,  to Nieswand and Pizor, "although a wide v a r i e t y  of planning factors are important," these three factors can p r a c t i c a l l y determine current carrying capacity because "natural resource a v a i l a b i l i t y , technological capacity, p u b l i c f i s c a l c a p a b i l i t y , and the p o l i c e power perspective of health and safety" are incorporated into each one of these factors.  1 6 8  This argument t y p i c a l l y shows the character of the carrying-  capacity analysis applied i n urban and regional development planning. E x i s t i n g capacity studies pay l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n to the meanings of i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade and petroleum-subsidized  technology.  Suppose a p a r t i c u l a r resource, water for example, i s i d e n t i f i e d as the l i m i t i n g factor i n a capacity study.  Then the carrying capacity or the  maximum growth permissible i s determined on the basis of the area's a v a i l a b i l i t y of water.  Nevertheless,  i f a technological breakthrough,  desalination or diversion technique for example, i s introduced a d d i t i o n a l water intake becomes economically  new  and  f e a s i b l e , the l i m i t to  development set by the capacity study loses i t s foundation, even though the new  technology i s accompanied by a serious adverse impact on the natural  85  environment.  This means that capacity studies are subordinated  to the  market and are often powerless i n coping with the degradation of the natural environment. As described above, without appropriate evaluation of i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade and f o s s i l - f u e l subsidization, carrying-capacity studies can end up as mere economic or technological f e a s i b i l i t y studies. t r a d i t i o n a l growth-accommodation planning.  These can serve only  This type of a p p l i c a t i o n i s not  a way to materialize the primary message of carrying capacity, namely " l i m i t s to growth."  (5)  Proposed D e f i n i t i o n and Framework  When applied to human society, carrying capacity becomes a much more complicated  concept than when i t i s applied to non-human species.  This i s  because the application of the concept to human society requires human intervention and the material standard of l i v i n g to be incorporated i n t o the scope of the analysis. Nevertheless,  the o r i g i n a l d e f i n i t i o n i n bioecology,  reviewed e a r l i e r i n this chapter,  s t i l l seems v a l i d here.  which was b r i e f l y My d e f i n i t i o n of  the concept applied to regional planning i s therefore based on that bioecological d e f i n i t i o n and i s as follows: regional carrying capacity i s the maximum number of people that can be supported at a c e r t a i n material standard  of l i v i n g i n the long run by u t i l i z i n g natural and human resources  within the region. The q u a l i f i c a t i o n " i n the long run" i n the d e f i n i t i o n implies that human economic a c t i v i t y i n the region are v i r t u a l l y free from depletion and waste accumulation.  resource  This i s because the regional environment,  where the myth of Nature Benign i s no longer v a l i d , cannot support a given  86  number of people " i n the long run" i f resource depletion or waste accumulation s u b s t a n t i a l l y undermines the regional c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate humankind.  My d e f i n i t i o n s of these two terms are as follows:  Resource depletion r e f e r s to a state where the environment can no longer go on supplying humankind with a p a r t i c u l a r resource because [ l ] a l l the a v a i l a b l e amount of the resource has been harvested, i n the case of the nonrenewable resources, or [2] the ecosystem as the producer of the resource has been adversely affected by overexploitation and/or environmental p o l l u t i o n and has stopped functioning, i n the case of the renewable resources. Waste accumulation r e f e r s to a state where a p a r t i c u l a r matter discharged as waste i n t o the environment remains harmful to organisms there, without being decomposed into non-toxic elements or reduced to a harmless l e v e l by biogeochemical cycles, because of the chemical character of the matter or i t s large amount beyond the a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment. It should be noted that the above d e f i n i t i o n of regional carrying capacity excludes i n t e r r e g i o n a l transaction as a supporting regards a region as a closed or an i s o l a t e d system.  system and  This i s not only  because the carrying capacity indicated by the largest population  possible  would be p r a c t i c a l l y meaningless unless interregional transaction were excluded but because i t i s useful to have an understanding of the " i n t r i n s i c " c a p a b i l i t y of a region to support human society and thereby to r e a l i z e the divergence of the current production/consumption mode from the one permissible without the subsidization of imported commodities including fossil f u e l .  1 6 9  However, t h i s does not preclude the interregional flow of  goods and materials from the scope of analysis.  This element i s c r i t i c a l  for regional capacity analysis and, as shown l a t e r , has to be e x p l i c i t l y incorporated  into i t .  There are three major elements of " i n t r i n s i c " carrying capacity of a region.  They are:  87  [1] natural c a p a b i l i t y ; [2] human intervention; and [3] l e v e l of consumption (or standard of l i v i n g ) . Regional carrying capacity can be thought of as a function of these three variables, and i s determined by their [1]  values.  1 7 0  Natural Capability  This variable i s to be determined by completing natural resources.  a regional inventory of  Natural c a p a b i l i t y means what and how much raw materials  nature can supply for a regional economy and what and how much wastes of human society nature can receive on a sustainable b a s i s .  The resources  that  naturally flow into and flow out of the region, such as a i r , water, f i s h and w i l d l i f e , deserve special attention.  That i s , we must not u t i l i z e these  resources i n such a way that they are depleted or t h e i r q u a l i t y / q u a n t i t y are substantially affected.  For example, the natural c a p a b i l i t y of a r i v e r to  supply water does not mean a l l the water that can be taken from the r i v e r . Water intake to the extent that i t s u b s t a n t i a l l y a f f e c t s downstream regions i s not permissible.  In the same vein, dumping toxic wastes i n t o a r i v e r to  be washed away a f f e c t i n g a downstream region i s not acceptable. [2]  Human Intervention  This variable i s composed of the human elements of production and waste disposal such as labour force, technology and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e .  Obviously,  only human interventions that are possible by using i n t r a r e g i o n a l l y available resources can be counted under this category for c a l c u l a t i n g i n t r i n s i c carrying capacity. [3]  Level of Consumption  It i s c r u c i a l to incorporate the material standard of l i v i n g into the analysis because regional carrying capacity fluctuates s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n  88  r e l a t i o n to consumption per c a p i t a . l e v e l of consumption i s lowered.  Carrying capacity increases when the  As viewed i n Chapter I I , the material  standard of l i v i n g has been t r a d i t i o n a l l y regarded as an indicator of happiness and s a t i s f a c t i o n . However, the concept of "quality of l i f e " shows that s a t i s f a c t i o n i s not simply a function of material wealth.  What i s  happiness and what i s s a t i s f a c t i o n are highly subjective, and the choice of the most d e s i r a b l e l e v e l of consumption or a regionally chosen l i f e s t y l e i s a socio-political  question.  It should be noted that the analysis of the interactions of the three major variables plus i n t e r r e g i o n a l transaction i s one of the most important parts of a regional carrying-capacity  study.  These four variables are  dependent on each other and are f i r m l y associated i n complicated ways including important feedback loops and causal l i n k s . i s o l a t e d e a s i l y i n any meaningful way.  No variable can be  For example, the following s i t u a t i o n  may not be unusual: a p a r t i c u l a r resource i s necessary to sustain a certain l i f e s t y l e , but the resource cannot be extracted without employing a p a r t i c u l a r technology, which requires petroleum, which i s brought into the region by i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade, and furthermore the technology produces a p a r t i c u l a r type of p o l l u t i o n that can be dealt with only by applying another o i l - s u b s i d i z e d technology, which i s l i k e l y to develop another type of pollution. The proposed concept of carrying capacity may be written as follows: ice = f ( n , h, c) where  i c e i s i n t r i n s i c carrying capacity; n i s natural c a p a b i l i t y ; h i s human intervention; and c i s l e v e l of consumption.  89  As i s to be argued i n Chapter V, a c e r t a i n kind of i n t e r r e g i o n a l commodity transfer i s e c o l o g i c a l l y sound and i n some cases plays an important r o l e i n enhancing regional carrying capacity.  It i s necessary to introduce t h i s  variable to the proposed framework because there i s a case where interregional exchanges of commodities benefit a l l the involved regions without v i o l a t i n g ecological imperatives.  In order to incorporate the  variable of interregional flow of goods and materials, the concept of "enhanced" carrying capacity i s introduced: enhanced carrying capacity i s the maximum number of people that can be supported at a c e r t a i n material standard of l i v i n g i n the long run by u t i l i z i n g regional resources with a certain level of subsidization by i n t e r r e g i o n a l transactions. Enhanced carrying capacity can be written as follows: ecc  =f(n,h,c,i) where  ecc i s enhanced carrying capacity; and i i s i n t e r r e g i o n a l flow of commodities.  I n t r i n s i c carrying capacity i s again written by using t h i s equation  as  follows: ice = f ( n , h, c, i=0). This framework i s supposed to generate an approximate image with some quantified information under each set of assumptions.  It i s expected to be  an aid to explore a future v i s i o n of a regional economy which i s compatible with ecological imperatives.  90  CHAPTER V SYNTHESIS  (1)  Introduction  The purpose of t h i s chapter i s to synthesize the arguments i n the preceding chapters and to describe how  the proposed framework of carrying  capacity can be applied to a study of a regional economy. The f i r s t h a l f of t h i s chapter i s devoted to the consideration of what regions are appropriate as the subject of regional planning.  In t h i s  argument, ecologically-determined regions are advocated, and the necessity to recognize the nested describes how  structure of regions i s emphasized.  The second half  the proposed carrying-capacity framework can be applied to a  regional economic study.  This application i s composed of six major steps.  Through these steps, each major variable of enhanced carrying capacity i s examined i n turn and l i m i t s to "supply" are determined.  This a p p l i c a t i o n i s  intended to y i e l d a normative image of a regional economy, toward which the e x i s t i n g form of production and consumption i s to be restructured.  (2)  The Region as the Subject of Regional  Planning  Since "region" i s not always a clear concept, i t i s necessary to consider what types of regions the proposed carrying-capacity framework should be applied to. character and  size.  Regions may  be explored and c l a s s i f i e d based on  Using these two aspects, I consider what types of  regions are appropriate as the subject of carrying-capacity studies aiming at achieving a v i a b l e region.  91  One c l e a r l y defined meaning f o r "region" i s an administrative subdivision of a country or a province. by d i s t i n c t boundaries. already e x i s t .  In t h i s case, the region i s defined  A d m i n i s t r a t i v e / p o l i t i c a l boundaries of this type  By using these e x i s t i n g boundaries, a well-defined region,  covering either a large or a small area, can e a s i l y and quickly be obtained as required.  Unfortunately, however, these convenient boundaries do not  usually represent ecological r e a l i t y .  The Slocan Project emphasized the  interrelatedness of the resources i n the v a l l e y , and argued that i t was necessary to study the subject area "as an e c o l o g i c a l system, that i s an interdependent itself."  1 7 1  complex of many resources  including the community  The project advocated managing t h e i r "resources as an a l l -  inclusive, t o t a l l y integrated resource u n i t . "  1 7 2  For example, they proposed  the preparation of "resource f o l i o s f o r a l l major drainages  within the  Slocan P.S.Y.U." so that each drainage would be managed "as a unit" on the basis of long-term development p l a n s .  1 7 3  I t i s reasonable  to deal with  natural resources as an i n t e r r e l a t e d e n t i t y or an ecosystem i n order to ensure e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable resource management and u t i l i z a t i o n . Therefore, f o r the purpose of a carrying-capacity study f o r achieving a viable economy, a region should be defined taking account of ecological properties. The concept of "bioregion" provides a set of useful c r i t e r i a to define a region f o r the purpose of carrying-capacity studies.  According  to Berg  and Dasmann, a bioregion i s i n some ways d i f f e r e n t from such ecological regions as Dasmann's b i o t i c province and Udvardy's biogeographical province.  174  In short, the concept of bioregion was created by adding the  perspective of regional residents, who are deeply rooted i n their t e r r i t o r y , to the concept of regions defined i n e c o l o g i c a l terms.  Berg and Dasmann  92  argue that: The term [bioregion] refers both to geographical t e r r a i n and a t e r r a i n of consciousness—to a place and the ideas that have developed about how to l i v e i n that p l a c e . 1 7 5  "A t e r r a i n of consciousness"  should not be confused with a view of  environment possessed by humankind i n general.  What i s emphasized as a  component of bioregion i s a residents' recognition of t h e i r t e r r i t o r i a l realities.  According to Sale, a bioregion i s : any part of the earth's surface whose rough boundaries are determined by natural c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s rather than human d i c t a t e s , distinguishable from other areas by p a r t i c u l a r a t t r i b u t e s of f l o r a , fauna, water, climate, s o i l s , and landforms, and by the human settlements and cultures those a t t r i b u t e s have given r i s e to. The borders between such areas are usually not r i g i d — n a t u r e works of course with f l e x i b i l i t y and f l u i d i t y — b u t the general contours of the regions themselves are not hard to i d e n t i f y by using a l i t t l e e c o l o g i c a l knowledge. Indeed, those contours are generally f e l t , understood, or i n some way sensed, by many of the inhabitants of the area, p a r t i c u l a r l y those close to the land. 1 76  Ultimately the task of determining the appropriate bioregional boundaries—and how seriously to take them—will always be l e f t up to the inhabitants of the area, the dwellers i n the land, who w i l l always know them b e s t . 1 7 7  E c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s perceived by the inhabitants define a bioregion. Inhabitants mean people who have l i v e d i n a p a r t i c u l a r area for a reasonably long period of time, i d e a l l y for generations.  It seems that the borders of  a region perceived by those especially rooted i n t e r r i t o r i a l ecosystems are seldom inconsistent i n a major way with the d i s t r i b u t i o n of ecological properties.  Thus, bioregions have a unique character  fundamentally  d i f f e r e n t from most of existing administrative ones. As Sale states i n the above quotation, bioregions do not have d i s t i n c t boundaries.  There i s not even an established way to define bioregional  boundaries.  There may be however l i t t l e need to determine r i g i d and hard  93  boundaries,  and the best method of d e f i n i t i o n l i k e l y v a r i e s according to  each domain to be defined, because both e c o l o g i c a l r e a l i t i e s and inhabitants' perception f l u c t u a t e .  Dodge states that:  the c r i t e r i a most often advanced for making bioregional d i s t i n c t i o n s are b i o t i c s h i f t , watershed, land form, cultural/phenomenological, s p i r i t presences, and elevation. 17 8  According to Aberley, bioregions are defined by mapping the following boundaries: a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h.  Plant and animal communities Watersheds Physiographic regions Aboriginal t e r r i t o r i e s H i s t o r i c a l and current human use patterns Psychophysical s i t e s Cognitive homelands Climate  i.  etc. ' 1 7  Both Dodge's and Aberley's presentations of the c r i t e r i a for defining bioregions are consistent with Sale's d e s c r i p t i o n of bioregions. i s put on [1] the biogeographical properties of a t e r r i t o r y and recognition of the people who  A stress [2] the  are c l o s e l y connected with these ecological  realities. In Dwellers i n the Land, Sale gives three notions of regions that may serve as bioregions.  The largest i s an "ecoregion," which takes " i t s  character from the broadest d i s t r i b u t i o n of native vegetation and types."  soil  It i s roughly "several hundred thousand square miles," and the  North American Continent contains about f o r t y "ecoregions," according to Sale.  The Ozark Plateau and the Sonoran Desert are given as examples.  "georegion"  180  A  i s smaller, and i s " i d e n t i f i e d most often by clear physiographic  features such as r i v e r basins, v a l l e y s , and mountain ranges." describes a watershed as "a p a r t i c u l a r l y d i s t i n c t i v e kind of  Sale georegion."  94  Examples are the White River watershed within the Ozark Ecoregion and the Central V a l l e y of C a l i f o r n i a within a Northern C a l i f o r n i a e c o r e g i o n .  181  A  georegion may "break down into a series of smaller t e r r i t o r i e s of perhaps several thousand square miles," that i s , "morphoregions," which are " i d e n t i f i a b l e by d i s t i n c t i v e l i f e forms on the surface—towns and c i t i e s , mines and f a c t o r i e s , f i e l d s and farms—and the special land forms that gave r i s e to those p a r t i c u l a r features i n the f i r s t place."  As an example, Sale  describes how the georegion of the Connecticut River Basin changes, as the r i v e r flows from i t s headwaters to i t s mouth, perceptibly creating several morphoregions.  1 82  The concept of bioregion i s transferable to the process of d e f i n i n g a region f o r the purpose of regional studies based on the framework of carrying capacity I proposed i n Chapter IV. This i s because the bioregion concept contains i n i t s e l f the e x p l i c i t designations of two major requirements for a viable regional economy, which i s to be the goal of those carrying-capacity studies.  As described i n Chapter III, a v i a b l e economy  needs [ l ] ecosystem-oriented resource management and [2] constant  input from  the resident public, which correspond with the c r i t e r i a for defining a bioregion, that i s , ecological properties and residents' perspective. E c o l o g i c a l properties and the inhabitants' perspective w i l l serve as major c r i t e r i a f o r defining a region for regional planning i n order to achieve a v i a b l e region. Regions vary i n size.  "Regional" i s located somewhere between "global"  and " l o c a l , " but does not designate any p a r t i c u l a r area of land.  Therefore,  i t i s necessary to c l a r i f y what i s meant by "region" or "regional" i n t h i s thesis.  In other words, i t i s s i g n i f i c a n t to consider what size of land i s  95  appropriate as the subject of carrying-capacity studies for regional viability. In order to achieve a v i a b l e region, i t i s necessary to build a s e l f r e l i a n t economy sustained by e c o l o g i c a l properties inherent i n the area. For this purpose, Sale's three kinds of bioregions may be appropriate. However, i t also seems necessary to apply the proposed framework of carrying capacity to a much smaller area.  This i s because Sale's bioregions are  l i k e l y to be too huge f o r i t s inhabitants to be involved i n a d i r e c t way. The world where a l o c a l perspective i s rooted i s a much smaller area. Sale's ecoregions and georegions are d e f i n i t e l y too large for humans to experience i n d a i l y l i f e and understand  what i s happening.  Even Sale's  morphoregions, several thousand square miles, may be too large.  People  cannot a c t u a l l y perceive what i s happening i n their large watershed i f they can only understand  i t at an abstract l e v e l .  It i s i n a small world of l o c a l community that people can l i v e an e c o l o g i c a l l y sound l i f e embedded i n the natural environment.  It i s there  that people can be t r u l y f a m i l i a r with other members of society and their ecological properties.  Today people a c t u a l l y l i v e i n a global region, but  they do not care about i t s long-term well-being. be interested i n such a huge area.  It i s almost impossible to  The Slocan Project stated that "[t]he  l o c a l community represents the only v i s i b l e group with a binding interest i n the long-term  sustenance of t h i s v a l l e y ' s r e s o u r c e s . "  183  This "binding  i n t e r e s t " may develop into a sense of i d e n t i f i c a t i o n or belonging to the place.  Murota advocates the scale of land represented by a creek as an  appropriate area for a place of l i v i n g .  He studies the relations between  water and entropy flow within the context of life-supporting systems and advocates the size of an area represented by a creek, not by a big r i v e r , as  96  a l i v i n g space i n which humans are rooted based on mutual understanding and cooperation.  184  In a community of that size, most residents know each other  and can be familiar with the natural environment to a considerable extent. This i s a place where Bookchin's i n d i v i d u a l and the g r o u p "  185  "profound sense of unity between the  i s possible.  Therefore, l o c a l community, which  i s roughly represented by the size of a creek, i s where the e x p l o i t a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p of humankind and the ecological resource base can begin to change into a symbiotic one.  The l e v e l of the l o c a l community i s important  because i t i s at this l e v e l that e f f o r t s to establish a s e l f - r e l i a n t economy can be i n i t i a t e d .  The l o c a l community i s where people can be personally  committed to and responsible for sustainable resource u t i l i z a t i o n .  It may  be impossible to achieve s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y at this l e v e l , but by networking these l o c a l e f f o r t s , a s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t region may be achieved. A carrying-capacity study can be conducted on a large e c o l o g i c a l l y united area, such as Sale's ecoregions and georegions. small area can be an appropriate subject as well.  On the other hand, a  That i s , i t i s meaningful  to study the t e r r i t o r y of a l o c a l community, which i s also an e c o l o g i c a l unit including the human community i t s e l f , i n terms of carrying capacity. Between an ecoregion and a l o c a l community, several levels of analysis can be selected as required.  Commodities vary i n their a v a i l a b i l i t y .  Some can  hardly be supplied s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t l y i n many l o c a l i t i e s , while others may be e a s i l y supplied l o c a l l y i n almost every l o c a l community.  I t may therefore  be meaningful to design a s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t c i r c u l a t i o n of a p a r t i c u l a r commodity at a certain intermediate l e v e l .  Not only t h i s , i n order to  achieve regional s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y , e f f o r t s should be made to increase s e l f r e l i a n c e at each subregional l e v e l which i s e c o l o g i c a l l y meaningful.  97  A m u l t i - l e v e l l e d view of a region seems necessary i n a regional study for the purpose of constructing a v i a b l e region. possible set of subregions  as the subject of study of regional planning.  Figure 11 shows the "nested" subregions.  Figure 10 describes one  structure of regions using the same set of  The view of a region as a m u l t i - l e v e l l e d system i s useful for  designing a mode of economy that helps enhance economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e at each subregional l e v e l .  The m u l t i - l e v e l l e d view of a region makes i t easier  for regional planners to take adequate account of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of c e r t a i n e c o l o g i c a l u n i t s , large or small, when designing a viable region.  (3)  A New  A p p l i c a t i o n of Carrying Capacity  According to Schneider  et a l . :  Because of i t s o r i g i n s i n the natural sciences, the term carrying capacity suggests an o b j e c t i v i t y and precision that i s not warranted by i t s use i n the planning community. 186  It i s true that we cannot expect pure o b j e c t i v i t y and impartial q u a n t i f i c a t i o n i n the a p p l i c a t i o n of the carrying-capacity concept to environmental planning and p o l i c y formation.  For one reason, human judgment  i s always involved when a set of assumptions i s made for conducting a study. For example, such steps as s e l e c t i n g variables and determining  the  i n t e r r e l a t i o n s between them are a l l based on these assumptions. Nevertheless, a carrying-capacity study does provide an approximate but e x p l i c i t representation of l i m i t s to growth inherent i n the study area i n the form of q u a n t i f i e d information.  Although the quantified output of a  capacity study i s by no means absolute, i t does serve as a valuable tool for designing a v i a b l e economy i f the meaning of the assumptions underlying the study i s understood i n an appropriate  way.  Figure 10 Subregional Levels f o r the Carrying-Capacity Analysis Self-Reliance at Each Level  Several hundred thousand square miles  Ecoregion  Place of L i f e Local Perspective Involvement of Resid ent Public  100  In Chapter IV, I proposed the concept of enhanced carrying capacity (ecc), which has four major variables, that i s , natural c a p a b i l i t y (n), human intervention (h), l e v e l of consumption (c) and i n t e r r e g i o n a l flow of commodities ( i ) . Therefore,  ecc = f ( n , h, c, i ) . Ecc and each major  variable except the variable c are i n a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n .  That i s to  say, ecc increases as each variable, n, h or i , increases, but  not  proportionately.  The contrary holds for ecc and the v a r i a b l e c.  variables are held constant,  an increase i n population can only be  by lowering standard of l i v i n g . of n, h and i .  When other achieved  In other words, c times ecc i s a function  Expressed as a formula,  ecc x c = f ( n , h, i ) , or ecc = f ( n , h, i ) / c. Industrialism, or the mode of production  and consumption p r e v a i l i n g i n  today's i n d u s t r i a l society, can be understood i n this framework as follows. The essence of i n d u s t r i a l i s m i s to increase an area's perceived capacity and improve the material standard of l i v i n g (c) by employing innovative technology (h) and expanding i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade ( i ) .  1 8 7  When  the effect of the increase i n the variables h and i i s bigger than the actual population growth, the d i f f e r e n c e i s usually "consumed" by r a i s i n g the variable c, rather than enlarging a "spare room."  This i s e s p e c i a l l y so  when the area's population growth has become stagnant and there i s l i t t l e need to increase the area's c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate new It should be noted that both reinforcement  immigrants.  of human intervention and  expansion of interregional transactions usually r e s u l t i n an increase i n the amount of goods and  services traded through the market system, or an  increase i n the GRP  or GNP.  It i s therefore understandable that GRP  have t r a d i t i o n a l l y been used as a measure to show how area i s : namely, how  r i c h the area i s and how  and  GNP  advanced a p a r t i c u l a r  high the material standard  of  101  living i s .  If happiness and s a t i s f a c t i o n were simply a function of material  affluence, human happiness and s a t i s f a c t i o n could be as well measured by GRP and GNP. This strategy of i n d u s t r i a l i s m , that i s , raising the material  standard  of l i v i n g by r e i n f o r c i n g human intervention and expanding i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade, unfortunately often r e s u l t s i n deterioration of the natural environment because the strategy i s put into practice with l i t t l e regard to ecological properties, which by themselves have the potential to ensure humankind a p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l of l i v i n g .  In some of the cases of human  intervention, the natural environment has been degraded so s u b s t a n t i a l l y that the s u r v i v a l of the area's population depends less on the l o c a l natural c a p a b i l i t y to support i t than on human-made systems such as i n d u s t r i a l production and transportation.  Some of the inherent ecological cycles have  been adversely a f f e c t e d and have stopped functioning i n an adequate way. For example, the l o c a l f i s h e r y of Kasumigaura, Japan's second biggest (168 square kilometres)  lake  located near Tokyo, has been devastated since 1972,  when the water gate was closed to prevent seawater from running into the lake.  The gate was closed i n order to make the lake a huge reservoir of  fresh water for a g r i c u l t u r a l and i n d u s t r i a l use, notably for feeding the Kashima I n d u s t r i a l Zone (see p.30).  Since 1973, the lake suffers an  outbreak of aoko (a kind of phytoplankton) every summer and a bad odor annoys l o c a l residents.  According  to Okui, the lake, which used to be r i c h  i n f i s h and s h e l l f i s h supporting more than hundred species, now has only about f i v e species f o r f i s h e r y .  Many people have been forced out of the  fishery and are now wageworkers.  188  Metropolitan areas are another example.  Even those i n e c o l o g i c a l l y productive regions, look i n many ways l i k e an astronauts'  colony f l o a t i n g i n the space, or l i k e a c i t y i n the middle of an  102  a r i d land, where the c a p a b i l i t y of the natural environment to support humankind i s extremely poor.  Rees t e l l s us that:  If Man i s dependent on them [ t e r r e s t o r i a l ecosystems], why do such polluted or depleted ecosystems not produce more dramatic impacts and p o l i t i c a l responses at present? Part of the answer i s that essential ecological resources - fresh a i r , clean water and food - can s t i l l be obtained (or automatically flow!) from elsewhere. Indeed there i s an i m p l i c i t assumption i n every urbanizing region that regardless of how l o c a l environments are allowed to deteriorate i n the name of economy and development, the necessities of l i f e can always be i m p o r t e d . ' 18  Under industrialism, people t r y to increase an area's perceived capacity and improve the material standard of l i v i n g mainly by developing regional dependence upon f o s s i l - f u e l - r e l a t e d technology and the i n t e r r e g i o n a l flow of commodities, rather than by working upon inherent natural c a p a b i l i t i e s to produce subsistence and decompose waste. As seen i n Chapter IV, the existing applications of carrying capacity barely challenge the i n d u s t r i a l mentality and are not completely free from a demand-based approach.  In the previous chapter, I argued that, i f the  implications of f o s s i l - f u e l subsidization and i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade are not adequately understood i n r e l a t i o n to an area's l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g system, carrying-capacity studies can end up with mere economic and/or technological f e a s i b i l i t y studies.  In the framework of "current carrying capacity"  advocated by Nieswand and P i z o r ' 1  0  (see p.84), no d i s t i n c t i o n i s made  between l o c a l resources and those imported.  For example, one l i t r e of water  taken from the l o c a l r i v e r system i s the same as one l i t r e of water delivered from hundreds of miles away, i f t h e i r economic costs are identical.  No d i s t i n c t i o n i s made again i n the way a resource i s made  available.  That i s , one l i t r e of water desalinated by using l o c a l l y  available technology and resources i s exactly the same as one l i t r e of water  103  desalinated by large-scale petroleum-consuming technology, i f the economic cost i s i d e n t i c a l .  Obviously,  these four kinds of water d i f f e r i n their  impact on l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g systems both within and outside of the region. When we cannot assume an i n f i n i t e natural c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate humankind, i t i s necessary to i d e n t i f y the effects of f o s s i l - f u e l subsidization and i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade upon the carrying capacity of a p a r t i c u l a r area.  This i s the rationale for the concept of enhanced carrying  capacity (ecc), where the elements of human intervention (h) and i n t e r r e g i o n a l flow of commodities ( i ) are e x p l i c i t l y distinguished from the element of natural c a p a b i l i t y (n).  This kind of d i s t i n c t i o n , which i s  hardly made i n a monetary analysis, i s indispensable to develop s e l f r e l i a n c e i n a regional economy and to promote environmentally  sensible  resource u t i l i z a t i o n i n order to achieve a viable region. When carrying-capacity analysis i s applied to a regional economic study, two aspects of the regional nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p need to be analyzed.  T r a d i t i o n a l l y economics pays attention almost exclusively to the  process of production,  neglecting the process of waste d i s p o s a l .  By  contrast, i n carrying-capacity studies, i t i s necessary to assess regional capacity to receive wastes r e s u l t i n g from human a c t i v i t y i n order to avoid waste accumulation, as well as assess the capacity to supply the regional population with necessary resources shown Figure 12. Obviously,  i n order to avoid resource depletion, as  the input and the output i n Figure 12 are  linked i n the natural environment as shown i n Figure 13. To e s t a b l i s h an e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable society means to r e t r i e v e the ecological cycles shown i n that f i g u r e , that i s , to make human a c t i v i t y become part of these cycles.  The c a p a b i l i t y to receive wastes i s part of the supply c a p a b i l i t y  104  Figure 1 2 Natural C a p a b i l i t i e s to Supply Resources and Receive Wastes  INPUT  .  c a p a b i l i t y to supply resources  >  HUMAN ACTIVITY  N  OUTPUT  /  c a p a b i l i t y to receive wastes  (demand)  (supply)  (supply)  Figure 1 3 Human A c t i v i t y as Part of E c o l o g i c a l  Cycles  (demand) HUMAN ACTIVITY  (HtODtJ C T I O N )  (^MSm^PTI^)  waste matter  was te heat  OUTPUT NATURAL DECOMPOSITION  solar energy  heat  105  in the sense of supplying humankind with opportunities to get r i d of wastes and keep l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g systems functioning w e l l .  B a s i c a l l y carrying-  capacity studies f i r s t t r y to determine what can be supplied l o c a l l y on a sustainable basis by assessing these two kinds of c a p a c i t i e s , and then attempt to i d e n t i f y an appropriate mode of human a c t i v i t y (a form of satisfying human demand) within the given l i m i t s of regional capacity.  supply  Thus, a supply-based approach i s taken i n carrying-capacity  studies and the process of determining supply involves these two aspects of the regional nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p . Carrying-capacity (i), (ii),  studies involve the following s i x major steps.  Steps  (iv) and (v) deal with each one of the four variables i n the  equation of enhanced carrying c a p a c i t y — n , h, i , c i n that respectively.  order,  Step ( i i i ) displays the gap between the e x i s t i n g state and a  s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t state, and Step (vi) i s where the future d i r e c t i o n of a regional economy i s considered ( i ) Making Resource  or restructure planning takes place.  Inventories  F i r s t of a l l , i t i s necessary to complete resource  inventories and  assess the natural c a p a b i l i t y of a study area to accommodate human a c t i v i t y or the variable n, which i s the foundation place.  on which human intervention takes  Resource inventories are therefore the basis of carrying capacity  calculations.  This step also includes d e f i n i n g i n t e r r e l a t i o n s between  natural resources concerning  located within the study area.  these i n t e r r e l a t i o n s , natural resources  Without knowledge w i l l not be managed as an  ecological unit or ecosystem, and expendable surpluses cannot be determined for the purpose of sustainable resource  utilization.  106  ( i i ) Assessing Human Intervention In t h i s step, the c a p a b i l i t i e s of regional human resources to produce commodities and to treat wastes are assessed.  This means making inventories  of human aspects of production and waste treatment, which include labour force, technology and infrastructure.  It i s important  to assess each human  intervention i n terms of impact on the natural environment and dependence on imported  commodities, thereby determining i t s c o m p a t i b i l i t y with the  region's v i a b i l i t y .  Petroleum subsidization i s to be analyzed from the  above two aspects i f a study region imports petroleum. p a r t i c u l a r mode of production, i t s negative outputs inputs (resources) and p o s i t i v e outputs  In assessing a  (wastes) as well as  (goods) must be taken into  account.  This a n a l y s i s may f i n d a useful tool i n the concept of economic-ecological e f f i c i e n c y , described i n Chapter I I I . ( i i i ) C a l c u l a t i n g I n t r i n s i c Carrying Capacity Using the information generated i n the previous steps, the i n t r i n s i c carrying capacity of the study area can be calculated. The l e v e l of consumption i s temporarily set at the present l e v e l , and by d e f i n i t i o n no i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade i s assumed.  Therefore, t h e o r e t i c a l l y , i n t r i n s i c  carrying capacity = f ( n = as defined i n Step ( i ) , h = as defined i n Step ( i i ) , c = present l e v e l , i = 0 ), and i f this value i s smaller than the actual r e g i o n a l population, the regional economy i s i n the state of s e l f s u f f i c i e n c y or can be directed toward the s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t state  immediately.  In p r a c t i c e , however, i t i s impossible to show i n any meaningful way the r e s u l t of the c a l c u l a t i o n by a single figure which represents the sustainable population because the mode of human consumption i s so complex and involves so many commodities that there i s no appropriate common denominator that can reduce what i s produced and consumed by the regional  107  population into a single index.  What can be done instead i s [ l ] to make a  l i s t of what can be prepared for consumption on the basis of information from Steps ( i ) and ( i i ) ; [2] to make another l i s t that shows what i s a c t u a l l y consumed at the present  time; and [3] to compare these two l i s t s .  (The same process can also be followed for wastes and treatment capacity.) If the parameters i n the f i r s t l i s t are s u f f i c i e n t for what appears i n the second, the region i s s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t or can move to the s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t state immediately.  Unfortunately,  however, t h i s may be unlikely i n the case  of a region located i n i n d u s t r i a l countries. l i s t i s much larger than the f i r s t one.  I t i s l i k e l y that the second  The d i f f e r e n c e between the two i s  compensated by interregional transactions.  For those " n o n - s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t "  regions, the following two steps, ( i v ) and (v), have to be followed, (iv)  Determining Acceptable Interregional Transaction  The i n t e r r e g i o n a l transfer of commodities i s only acceptable within a c e r t a i n set of l i m i t s .  F i r s t , i n t e r r e g i o n a l transaction must be  e c o l o g i c a l l y sound, that i s , e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable over a long period of time.  The exchange of commodities between regions and the processes of  producing, transporting and consuming these commodities must be v i r t u a l l y free from resource depletion and waste accumulation i n both regions.  In  other words, what could be transferred i n t e r r e g i o n a l l y i s only what i s renewable on a sustainable basis or what i s nonrenewable but cannot be depleted i n the foreseeable future because of i t s abundance compared to i t s consumption.  Moreover, the wastes r e s u l t i n g from t h i s exchange must be  within the decomposing c a p a b i l i t y of each region. Secondly, interregional transaction must not develop " p a r a s i t i c " or e x p l o i t a t i v e relationships between regions.  That i s to say, interregionally  transferred commodities must not r e s u l t i n l i m i t i n g p o s s i b i l i t i e s of  108  improvement i n welfare, or of future options f o r the regions that supply these commodities.  The role of interregional transfers should be understood  i n general as subsidiary, that i s , to make some contribution to the enhancement of regional c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate humankind.  Ideally,  commodities from outside the region should be l i m i t e d to what i s b i o l o g i c a l l y indispensable  (that i s , part of basic human requirements at the  l e v e l of subsistence) and i s not, or barely a v a i l a b l e within the region. These commodities should be a catalyst enhancing regional v i a b i l i t y .  That  i s , they should be used so that their r e l a t i v e l y small inputs w i l l a c t i v a t e u n d e r u t i l i z e d resources within the region and help enlarge regional carrying capacity by bypassing  bottlenecks.  Salt may be an example of a commodity that can s a t i s f y these qualifications.  While i t i s a basic b i o l o g i c a l need of human beings, i t may  not be found i n some regions.  Theoretically, the i n t r i n s i c carrying  capacity of these regions i s zero.  If they have potential c a p a b i l i t i e s to  sustain humankind when salt i s made a v a i l a b l e by interregional transfer, and are also capable of supplying  some commodities f o r export on an e c o l o g i c a l l y  sustainable basis, i n exchange for the imported s a l t , t h i s type of i n t e r r e g i o n a l transaction should be regarded as acceptable.  It i s u n l i k e l y  that the extraction of salt w i l l r e s u l t i n resource depletion or e c o l o g i c a l hazards, because i t i s abundant compared to the amount necessary to s a t i s f y human b i o l o g i c a l needs and can be extracted without employing p o l l u t i o n inducing technology.  It i s also u n l i k e l y that the transportation and  consumption of the salt w i l l result i n environmental degradation along the transportation route or i n the consuming area because the amount necessary for human b i o l o g i c a l needs i s n e g l i g i b l e i n r e l a t i o n to the natural environment.  On the other hand, the salt transferred into s a l t l e s s  regions  109  i s tremendously b e n e f i c i a l i n expanding carrying capacity by bypassing a critical  bottleneck.  (v) Finding a Sustainable  Standard of L i v i n g  As mentioned e a r l i e r , enhanced carrying capacity (ecc) times per capita consumption or material standard of l i v i n g (c) i s a function of natural c a p a b i l i t y (n), human intervention (h) and  interregional transaction ( i ) .  That i s , ecc x c = f ( n , h, i ) . In t h i s step, the value of the term, ecc times c, i s obtained using the information generated i n Steps ( i ) , ( i i ) and  ( i v ) . The  about the variables n, h and i , term, ecc times c, designates  the t o t a l amount that can be made a v a i l a b l e for regional consumption by combining regional l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g systems, both natural and human, with acceptable subsidization by i n t e r r e g i o n a l transfer of commodities. may  be represented i n an itemized form.  The term  For example, i t can be described i n  a l i s t where the amount a v a i l a b l e i s shown for each item of f i n a l product. The term, ecc times c, also v a r i e s i n terms of i t s contents. biomass f u e l may produce.  For example,  appear i n the l i s t at the s a c r i f i c e of part of grain and  Therefore,  i t i s p o s s i b l e to obtain as many combinations of  commodities as necessary, and the most d e s i r a b l e one can be selected from these alternatives according  to the c u l t u r a l and  s o c i a l needs of the region.  The term of ecc times c divided by the actual population of the region shows what can be made a v a i l a b l e on average for each i n d i v i d u a l by a s e l f r e l i a n t and e c o l o g i c a l l y sound regional economy.  If t h i s material standard  of l i v i n g i s s a t i s f a c t o r y , the regional economy i s already e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable or has a s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l to achieve a sustainable  state.  On the other hand, i f t h i s material standard of l i v i n g i s lower than the present consumption rate, one of the following three means must be taken i n order to achieve a v i a b l e , s e l f - r e l i a n t and e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable,  110  region: [1] lower the present standard of l i v i n g ; [2] reduce the regional population; or [3] both of the preceding, unless substantial improvement i n human intervention, for example a technological breakthrough e c o l o g i c a l imperatives, i s expected.  compatible  with  This adjustment i s v i r t u a l l y a trade-  o f f between size of regional population and material standard of l i v i n g . This i s because the other variables of the carrying-capacity equation are held constant i n this adjustment, except that the v a r i a b l e of human intervention may be more or less affected when the regional population i s reduced.  The normative size of population and the normative standard of  l i v i n g are thus  determined.  (vi) Planning for Restructuring a Regional Economy In this step, efforts are made to design the transformation of the e x i s t i n g regional economy into a v i a b l e one.  For the regions where a  p o t e n t i a l to achieve economic s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i s found i n Step ( i i i ) and those where a potential to achieve an e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable economy with acceptable l e v e l of interregional subsidization i s found i n Step (v), plans are made so as to help transform the e x i s t i n g forms of human intervention and interregional trade into those compatible with regional v i a b i l i t y as i d e n t i f i e d i n Steps ( i i ) and ( i v ) .  For the regions where i t i s necessary to  lower the current standard of l i v i n g and/or to reduce regional population i n order to meet the inherent ecological l i m i t s , extra planning i s needed i n order to s a t i s f y these prerequisites f o r a v i a b l e economy.  In t h i s extra  planning, the l i m i t s of supply are e x p l i c i t l y recognized, and within these l i m i t s a regionally chosen l i f e s t y l e i s to be explored with consideration of the c u l t u r a l and social needs i d e n t i f i e d i n the region. E a r l i e r i n this chapter, I described the nested structure of a region  Ill  as the subject for a carrying-capacity study.  In order to achieve a v i a b l e  region, i t seems necessary to make an e f f o r t to restructure an economy not only at the l e v e l of large regions but also at other levels including a small l o c a l i t y where people can a c t u a l l y establish a f a m i l y - l i k e t i e with other community members and the natural environment.  The framework of  carrying capacity described above can be applied to an analysis of an economy at any regional l e v e l , and e f f o r t s can be made to increase economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e at each l e v e l .  The a p p l i c a t i o n of this framework y i e l d s a  normative image of an economy, a mode of production and consumption which i s e c o l o g i c a l l y sound and can be sustained over a long period of time.  112  CHAPTER VI CONCLUSION  (1)  Summary  In this thesis, I have explored a conceptual  framework that  provides  r e l i a b l e guidance for regional planning when the major i m p l i c i t assumption of industrialism, the i n f i n i t e capacity of the natural environment, i s no longer v a l i d . In order to j u s t i f y the premise of this thesis, I have examined the character of present  i n d u s t r i a l society.  I conclude that the i n d u s t r i a l  mode of production and consumption i s not e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable i n the long run and i t i s only made possible temporarily by the use of f o s s i l f u e l . I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n has reached the stage where the f o s s i l f u e l  subsidy  r e s u l t s i n unacceptable degradation of the natural environment and thereby undermines i t s c a p a b i l i t y to accommodate humankind i n the long run.  In  other words, human economic a c t i v i t y i s today massive and the human impact on nature i s enough so that the natural l i m i t a t i o n s of the environment have become apparent.  Ultimately, there i s no way that we can override t h i s  l i m i t a t i o n without inducing disorder i n our e c o l o g i c a l resource base. Modern technology, although i t has l i b e r a t e d humans from many natural r e s t r a i n t s , i s not an exception.  I t does not make i t possible for humans to  override the ultimate l i m i t a t i o n without causing environmental  degradation.  For example, a technological solution to one environmental problem w i l l l i k e l y contribute to the degradation of the natural environment as a whole i n the long run.  No matter how technology advances, human beings can never  113  i s o l a t e themselves from e c o l o g i c a l life-supporting systems. ' 1  If these  1  systems go on d e t e r i o r a t i n g , the long-term persistence of human society w i l l be impossible.  Present society can no longer afford to neglect  l i m i t a t i o n s imposed by the natural environment.  the  Many regions of i n d u s t r i a l  countries have passed t h e i r inherent natural l i m i t a t i o n s , and now the ecological expense of other regions.  Current i n d u s t r i a l  which are labour e f f i c i e n t and natural-resource  l i v e at  operations,  intensive, cannot be  sustained i n f i n i t e l y , to say nothing of constant  economic growth.  This i s  not merely because of possible depletion of f o s s i l fuel but because of the absolute e c o l o g i c a l l i m i t a t i o n of the planet.  Therefore,  the assumption of  an i n f i n i t e natural capacity, which underlies industrialism, must be abandoned as the guide for human behaviour. Under the circumstance where the existence of ecological l i m i t a t i o n s cannot be neglected,  the t r a d i t i o n a l approach to regional development  planning, which aims at regional economic growth i n terms of GRP, l i k e l y f a i l to serve the long-term welfare of regional residents.  will I have  argued that a v i a b l e region, which ensures inhabitants an acceptable  level  of l i v i n g over a long period of time, can be b u i l t on [1] e c o l o g i c a l l y sustainable management and u t i l i z a t i o n of regional resources and r e l i a n t mode of a regional economy.  [2] a s e l f -  Good ecology and good economy become  one i n the long-term i n t e r e s t of the regional community, and complementarily contribute to the v i a b i l i t y of a region.  In order to achieve a v i a b l e  region, regional planning must take a supply-based approach, and a regional economy which has already passed the ecological l i m i t a t i o n of i t s region must be restructured so that i t can l i v e v i r t u a l l y on i t s own  account.  I have emphasized that carrying capacity i s a useful concept that helps develop a supply-based approach to regional planning because i t i s an  114  e x p l i c i t representation of l i m i t s to growth.  This concept has already been  employed i n the f i e l d of planning, and the a p p l i c a t i o n to urban and regional growth management, which began i n the early 1970s, i s a notable example. Unfortunately, however, i n the a p p l i c a t i o n to regional planning,  the  i n t r i n s i c meaning of carrying capacity, the absolute l i m i t a t i o n of the natural environment inherent to each region, has not been f u l f i l l e d . these capacity studies the major concern remains how accommodate assumed growth.  In  to d i s t r i b u t e and  The ecological e f f e c t s of the subsidization by  modern technology and the i n t e r r e g i o n a l transfer of commodities are not adequately evaluated.  Consequently these studies are i n the end mere  economic/technological  f e a s i b i l i t y studies.  In order to f u l l y e x p l o i t the  valuable implication of carrying capacity, I have proposed the concept of enhanced carrying capacity, which i s determined by four v a r i a b l e s : [1] natural c a p a b i l i t y of a study area to supply human society with necessary resources and receive wastes r e s u l t i n g from human a c t i v i t y ; [2] intraregional human c a p a b i l i t y to work on e c o l o g i c a l l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g systems i n order to obtain what can meet regional human needs; [3] rate of consumption or material standard of l i v i n g ; and by imported commodities.  [4] l e v e l of subsidization  This concept i s expected to serve as a  conceptual  framework to help regional planning achieve a v i a b l e reigon, which i s ecologically sustainable and economically  self-reliant.  I have suggested a region which i s defined by i t s e c o l o g i c a l properties and the perspective of i t s inhabitants, as appropriate for regional studies employing the proposed framework of carrying capacity.  I have a l s o  advocated a m u l t i - l e v e l l e d view of a region and the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s framework to several levels of a region, from the l e v e l of a small community where inhabitants are a c t u a l l y s e t t l e d and rooted, to the l e v e l of a large  115  area such as Sale's ecoregions and georegions. increase s e l f - r e l i a n c e are encouraged.  At each l e v e l , e f f o r t s to  I have described the s i x major steps  that compose the procedure of the proposed regional carrying-capacity study. Through these s i x steps, major variables are scrutinized i n turn and synthesized to generate a normative image of a viable region.  This study i s  a learning process to f i n d a future v i s i o n of a regional economy which can be sustained e c o l o g i c a l l y and serve the regional well-being i n the long run.  (2)  S i g n i f i c a n c e of the Proposed Framework  It seems that i n d u s t r i a l society i s not ready to accept the proposed carrying-capacity approach to regional planning.  It i s safe to say that the  majority of people l i v i n g i n i n d u s t r i a l countries are not yet ready to have second thoughts about t h e i r ways of l i v i n g and consider the long-term e f f e c t s of the current material affluence on the natural environment.  The  market system, which has t r a d i t i o n a l l y neglected environmental costs,  still  dominates much of the economic sphere, and the myth of constant economic growth i s accepted without thought among the electorate at large.  This i s  because people have not yet adequately grasped what i s r e a l l y happening i n ecological l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g systems.  Although the mass media occasionally  cover environmental problems i n the world, these issues f a i l to be personalized and understood i n an adequate way by the p u b l i c .  Under these  circumstances, i t i s hardly surprising that people behave according to the guidance provided by the myth of Nature Benign.  This set of s o c i e t a l  b e l i e f s i s very comfortable to humankind. Where the meaning of the recent change i n the nature-human r e l a t i o n s h i p , which I described i n Chapter II, i s not s u f f i c i e n t l y understood, the proposed approach to achieve a viable regional economy by  116  restructuring the e x i s t i n g one i s d i f f i c u l t to implement because of the essential difference i n philosophy.  F i r s t , i t i s d i f f i c u l t for this  approach to obtain enough p o l i t i c a l and implementation.  j u r i s d i c t i o n a l support for  Second, i t i s not u n t i l regional residents f u l l y understand  the i n v a l i d i t y of the Nature-Benign myth that the proposed approach can obtain enough support to function as prescribed to achieve i t s goal. seen i n Chapters III and V, input by the regional population indispensable  As  is  i n order to define the boundary of a study area and determine  a "regionally chosen l i f e s t y l e or l e v e l of l i v i n g " under a c e r t a i n set of l i m i t i n g conditions.  When the negative e f f e c t s of petroleum-subsidized  technology and interregional trade on the natural environment both within and outside of the region are not understood c o r r e c t l y , people have l i t t l e reason to be interested i n economic s e l f - r e l i a n c e and e c o l o g i c a l sustainability. This, however, does not mean that the proposed framework of carrying capacity i s u n r e a l i s t i c and useless i n present i n d u s t r i a l society.  On  the  contrary, the proposed framework of carrying capacity can serve as a powerful tool for grasping  ecological r e a l i t y , or what i s a c t u a l l y happening  around us i n the natural environment. perform an educational  In other words, t h i s framework can  r o l e i n increasing e c o l o g i c a l awareness i n society by  providing an a l t e r n a t i v e way  of seeing the world.  Even a preliminary study  using this framework can reveal the e c o l o g i c a l status of a regional economy to i t s residents.  That i s , by d i s t i n g u i s h i n g the major components of the  base of a regional economy, which are represented by the four variables of enhanced carrying capacity, t h i s framework helps people d i r e c t l y understand how  their way  of l i v i n g , as both producers and consumers, i s sustained i n  117  e c o l o g i c a l terms. The proposed framework has three strengths i n increasing the ecological awareness of people who  l i v e i n a region.  s i z e of land or economy.  F i r s t , i t can be applied to any  It i s supposed to generate a normative image of a  v i a b l e economy that serves as guidance for restructuring an e x i s t i n g economy at whatever regional l e v e l i t i s applied.  Second, this framework encourages  people to consider two kinds of supplies.  That i s to examine regional  p o t e n t i a l to sustain humankind from the aspect of receiving wastes as well as providing necessary resources on a sustainable b a s i s .  We can no  longer  a f f o r d to leave regional capacity to receive waste r e s u l t i n g from human a c t i v i t y outside our consideration, as mainstream economists have t r a d i t i o n a l l y done.  The t h i r d strength i s that the proposed framework can  d i s p l a y a personalized image of the ecological status of a regional economy. A regional study using this framework helps regional residents obtain a s o l i d idea about t h e i r economy i n close r e l a t i o n to their  circumstances.  The framework of carrying capacity generates information about ecological r e a l i t y i n a f a m i l i a r way  so that people can understand what i s happening i n  and out of a region i n ecological terms i n a personal  way.  The proposed framework performs i t s educational r o l e i n three ways. F i r s t , i t describes the ecological linkage of a regional economy with the rest of the world i n such a way  that regional residents can understand t h e i r  e c o l o g i c a l status i n the world i n a personal way.  It i s expected to  function i n a s i m i l a r way as Rees' concept of "regional capsule" does.  This  regional capsule idea i s designed as an educational t o o l "to stimulate users to think i n new  ways about the relationships between their home regions  the global environment i n the context of socio-economic development alternatives." ' 1  2  Rees argues that:  and  118  the inter-regional flow of e c o l o g i c a l goods and services obscures the functional r e l a t i o n s h i p s between a given regional population and the biophysical resource base upon which i t i s dependent. ' 1  3  The regional capsule concept helps people pass t h i s perceptual  bottleneck by  having them assume their home regions covered by "a large p l a s t i c capsule that would pass sunlight, but not material r e s o u r c e s , " ' 1  McHarg's large b e l l j a r . ' 1  5  4  which i s l i k e  The concept of regional capsule i s elaborated  in such a way that a study using t h i s concept can perform a powerful educational r o l e .  1 9 6  As the idea of regional capsule does, i n urban  regions, the a p p l i c a t i o n of the proposed framework w i l l reveal their " p a r a s i t i c " character  to the residents.  While such ecological hazards as  destruction of t r o p i c a l r a i n forests by c l e a r - c u t t i n g and depletion of s o i l nutrients by monocultural plantation may sound foreign, the capacity framework helps people understand the linkage between these hazards and their d a i l y l i v i n g by c l a r i f y i n g how far t h e i r way of l i v i n g exceeds regionally inherent capacity and how much e c o l o g i c a l commodities are brought into t h e i r region, at the ecological cost of the supplying regions, i n order to make the accounts balance.  People are thus encouraged to increase their  ecological awareness by being pushed to face the e c o l o g i c a l dependence of their region upon a p a r t i c u l a r group of other regions.  People are also  encouraged to see how their regional resources are exploited, possibly, on an unsustainable  basis, i n order to maintain i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade balances.  Second, a proposed regional study provides an opportunity  for regional  residents to have second thoughts about t h e i r current way of l i v i n g by showing the e x p l i c i t l i m i t a t i o n of regional carrying capacity.  When l i m i t s  are understood, people may begin to examine the value or necessity of what they have taken for granted.  When people are informed of t h i s kind of  119  l i m i t a t i o n , they may give up meaningless gadgetry or cut wasteful energy use, even i f t h i s does not result i n substantial money savings.  In  i n d u s t r i a l society, people are too accustomed to the p r e v a i l i n g consumer l i f e s t y l e to re-evaluate i t s true benefits. motivates  The proposed framework thus  people to distinguish what i s being consumed i n a meaningless way  from what i s a c t u a l l y necessary for their  life.  Third, the proposed framework helps regional residents recognize u n d e r u t i l i z e d natural and human resources within a region.  This r e -  discovery w i l l inform efforts to determine a " r i g h t " way to supply what has been i d e n t i f i e d as necessary i n the preceding step.  A "right" way means a  mode of production and waste disposal which can be r e g i o n a l l y sustained i n an e c o l o g i c a l l y sound way.  For example, i t may be possible to eliminate the  regional consumption of petroleum as f u e l by using r e g i o n a l l y a v a i l a b l e firewood and unemployed labour.  I t i s possible that each region has  u n d e r u t i l i z e d resources that have a r i c h p o t e n t i a l to sustain human a c t i v i t y because standardized i n d u s t r i a l technology has been extensively transferred even to r u r a l regions without adequate consideration of i t s e c o l o g i c a l and economic appropriateness.  Thus a capacity study which l i s t s r e g i o n a l l y  inherent resources and considers combinations of them w i l l make regional residents aware of a l t e r n a t i v e modes of production and waste d i s p o s a l .  This  w i l l encourage a reconsideration of the current mode of production and consumption. Environmental problems today defy technological solutions.  They are  rooted i n the basic value system or worldview currently popular i n i n d u s t r i a l society.  It i s now necessary to evaluate the relevance of the  dominant worldview to the present ecological r e a l i t y .  As seen above, the  120  proposed carrying-capacity framework can be employed i n the e f f o r t to increase public awareness of e c o l o g i c a l r e a l i t y .  A l l of the application of  t h i s framework should be seen as an educational process.  People can learn  by studying their home regions using t h i s framework, and the result of the study has an educational value, even f o r those who have not been d i r e c t l y involved i n the study.  I t i s most important to induce arguments about what  we have taken for granted concerning the nature-human relationship, i f we want to proceed to a viable economy.  I agree with Hammond that "[w]hile  changing p o l i t i c a l parties may help, the r e a l solution rests with changing society." ' 1  7  Where the myth of Nature Benign i s s t i l l powerful, the most  s i g n i f i c a n t role of the proposed framework i s educational, that i s , to c a l l for  attention to ecological r e a l i t y by providing a new way of seeing the  world.  (3)  Direction of Further Study  In this thesis I have described a t h e o r e t i c a l framework based on the concept of carrying capacity.  The next step w i l l be to apply the framework  to the r e a l world and determine i t s strengths and weaknesses i n p r a c t i c a l use.  A t r i a l application of t h i s framework to an existing region i s  expected to reveal p r a c t i c a l problems i n the implementation of the proposed approach.  E f f o r t s can then be made to modify and enhance the i n i t i a l  framework so that i t w i l l become more implementable  i n planning practice and  more powerful i n i t s educational r o l e . Japan may be one of the appropriate and rewarding subjects of this experimental study.  Its t e r r i t o r y i s approximately 378 thousand  square  kilometres and i s composed of four major and other smaller islands that are located at the northwest corner of the P a c i f i c Ocean, and had a population  121  of approximately 120.5 m i l l i o n i n 1985. In "bioregional" terms, that i s , biogeographical and c u l t u r a l , the whole t e r r i t o r y can be regarded as a s i n g l e unit, with the possible exceptions of Hokkaido ' 1  Islands. " 1  8  and the Ryukyu  Since there are data at the national and sub-national l e v e l s ,  they may be readily available for the purpose of estimating the c a p a b i l i t y of natural and human systems to sustain human beings within the country. Japan i s one of the most i n d u s t r i a l i z e d countries. The current mode of production and consumption i s extensively dependent upon petroleum, and the country imports more than 99 per cent of the crude o i l that i t consumes i n the 1980s.  It also imports much food and forest products.  r a t i o s of these ecological commodities v a r y .  2 0 0  The self-supply  The o v e r a l l self-supply  r a t i o of food i s only about 50 per cent i n terms of o r i g i n a l c a l o r i e s i n 1985.  201  Furthermore,  the primary sector, r i c e and meat production, f o r  example, i s heavily subsidized by petroleum-derived chemicals and imported forage and g r a i n .  2 0 2  The following argument i s common and i s widely taken  for granted i n the country: Japan i s a small country and i s poor i n natural resources while the population i s large; therefore the only one way to survive i s to encourage further "modernization," which i s v i r t u a l l y i d e n t i c a l with i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , and then make international trade balance. However, Japan i s actually r i c h i n water resources, and i t s climate i s not h o s t i l e to agriculture. resources.  Furthermore,  The country i s also r i c h i n marine and forest  the t r a d i t i o n a l accumulation of knowledge about  e c o l o g i c a l life-supporting systems i s not l o s t .  For example, t r a d i t i o n a l  wisdom concerning organic f e r t i l i z a t i o n i s s t i l l a l i v e i n parts of the countryside.  The country's t o t a l dependence upon petroleum has been  established only i n t h i r t y years, and t h i s process has l e f t many r e g i o n a l l y a v a i l a b l e resources underutilized.  For example, the so-called f u e l  122  revolution, a quick t r a n s i t i o n from t r a d i t i o n a l fuel such as charcoal and firewood  to "modern" f u e l such as petroleum and natural gas, l e f t many  forest products u n u t i l i z e d i n community commons, and many of these commons are now  l e f t unmanaged.  If a carrying-capacity study s u c c e s s f u l l y shows that how many people can be sustained at a c e r t a i n l e v e l of l i v i n g by the country's natural and human l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g systems subsidized only by e c o l o g i c a l l y acceptable international trade, the study may  induce arguments concerning  premise: s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i s t o t a l l y impossible i n any way.  the national  The  population  has expanded about four times from what i t used to be at the age of seclusion that ended about 120 years ago, and returning to the material l e v e l of l i v i n g at that time i s d e f i n i t e l y unacceptable to modern Japanese. Therefore, i t may Nevertheless, for  be true that modern Japan cannot achieve  self-sufficiency.  the arguments about the national premise, which has been taken  granted and has sustained rapid economic growth, may  large with an opportunity to recognize the country's reconsider their way An experimental  of l i v i n g i n an e x p l i c i t  provide people at  ecological status and  way.  study can a l s o be conducted at sub-national  levels.  What i s i n t e r e s t i n g i s that there s t i l l exists a form of l o c a l community c a l l e d mura i n the countryside.  A mura i s composed of roughly ten to  hundred families and i s characterized by i t s t r a d i t i o n a l bonds to land and s p i r i t u a l t i e s among the members.  Its boundary also represents ecological  properties, e s p e c i a l l y water systems.  A mura seems to serve i d e a l l y as a  unit to be studied i n carrying-capacity a n a l y s i s .  It can represent  the  small world of the l o c a l community that I described as a meaningful subject of capacity studies i n Chapter V.  Today heavy use of machinery and  pesticides l a r g e l y r e s u l t s i n economic disaster and i l l health of farmers i n  123  a farming mura.  203  Although i t i s true that mechanization and use of  pesticides have substantially lightened farmers' labour, i t i s now to re-evaluate the result of modernization.  necessary  A carrying-capacity study  may  help this evaluation and re-orientation of the mode of production. Japan i s a t y p i c a l i n d u s t r i a l country l i v i n g at the e c o l o g i c a l s a c r i f i c e of i t s own environment world.  and many other resource regions i n the  An experimental carrying-capacity study at the national l e v e l  may  provide people with some motivation to start thinking about t h e i r way of l i v i n g and national economic p o l i c y , for example, i n ecological terms and thereby contribute to increasing ecological awareness i n society. application of the proposed framework to an existing mura may  An  result i n  substantial re-orientation of the mode of production and consumption e s p e c i a l l y where the negative effects of modernization are well recognized. Also at the l e v e l of mura, the proposed carrying-capacity study w i l l perform i t s educational role by providing an a l t e r n a t i v e way of seeing the world. If a substantial number of people begin to have even a s l i g h t doubt about what they have taken for granted, i t means that a great s t a r t i n g step leading to transforming the existing economy into a v i a b l e one has been taken.  124  NOTES  Holling (19781 I),  pp.97-98.  Holling (1978; 0,  pp.97.  3  Holling (1978; 0,  p.99.  4  Holling (1978; S), pp.99-100.  5  Holling (1978; !), p.101.  6  Holling (1978; S), p.101.  7  Holling (1978; i), p.101.  8  Holling (1978; i), pp.104-105.  1  2  ' Holling (1978; 0 ,  (Bracketed insertion added.)  (Bracketed insertion added.)  (Bracketed insertions added.)  (Bracketed insertion added.)  p.99.  1 0  Holling (1978), p.101.  1 1  Hashiura (1969), pp.255-257.  1 2  Nishiwaki and Sakurada (1958), pp.383-384.  1 3  These assumptions are not always true i n the history of whaling.  For example, stocks of r i g h t whales, which are smaller and slower than blue and f i n whales, were depleted i n the north A t l a n t i c well before the 1860s, when explosive harpoons and steam-powered whalers were introduced. M i l l e r and Armstrong (1982), p.436.  See  Also i n Japan, i t was recorded that a  whale stock at Miura, Kanagawa was depleted i n twenty-five years i n the early seventeenth century.  See Hashiura (1969), p.200.  1 4  Howard and Perley (1980),  p.15.  1 5  Howard and Perley (1980), pp.43,47.  1 6  Brown devotes a whole chapter to each of these three problems.  See  125  Brown (1981), chs.2-4.  the  1 7  Brown (1981), pp.6-7.  1 8  For example, see Johannes (1982) for t r a d i t i o n a l f i s h i n g customs i n  t r o p i c a l P a c i f i c islands. 1 9  the  As for power generation by nuclear f i s s i o n , I regard i t as part of  technology subsidized by f o s s i l f u e l .  generation i s subordinated to petroleum.  In every way nuclear power That i s to say, nuclear power  generation, from the extraction and concentration of uranium to the treatment and storage of nuclear waste, i s impossible without the subsidization of petroleum.  It cannot save f o s s i l f u e l .  Murota  (1979:  pp.72-81) argues that nuclear power generation i s a highly petroleumconsumptive technology and shows that i t i s not always more e f f i c i e n t than thermal power generation i n terms of petroleum as input by c a l c u l a t i n g energy cost of power generation by nuclear f i s s i o n . 2 0  Murota (1982), p.54.  2 1  Murota (1982), pp.54-56.  2 2  Tsuchiya (1981), pp.114-116.  2 3  Based on the information given by Tsuchiya (1981), p.33.  2 4  Based on the information given by Tsuchiya (1981), p.114.  2 5  Murota (1982), pp.81-83.  2 6  Murota (1982), p.83 and Niimi (1985), pp.164-165.  2 7  Catton and Dunlap (1980), pp.17-18.  2 8  Sale (1985), p.50.  2 9  Friedmann and Weaver (1979), p.172.  3 0  Friedmann and Weaver (1979), p.129.  3 1  Shimazu (1977), p.100.  3 2  Shimazu (1977), pp.101-102.  126  3 3  Shimazu (1977), pp.112-116.  3 4  Shimazu (1977), pp.145-146.  3  * CCRD (1976), p.60.  3 6  Henderson (1978), p.21.  (Emphasis i n o r i g i n a l . )  3 7  CCRD (1976), p.63.  3 8  Schumacher (1973), p.11.  3 9  Schumacher (1973), ch.3.  4 0  See Howard and Perley (1980), especially ch.7, for how reluctant  (Bracketed insertion added.)  such companies as International Nickel Company (Inco) have been to take an action f o r environmental improvement.  Inco i s known for i t s Superstack i n  Sudbury, the world's greatest single source of sulphur dioxide. that Inco has s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduced sulphur dioxide emissions.  It i s true For example,  i t reduced the emissions from 5,000 tons per day i n the mid-seventies to 3,600 tons i n 1978. However, i t s emissions i n 1978 were s t i l l f a r higher than the amount (750 tons) permitted by a p r o v i n c i a l government order. See Weller (1983), p.22. Weller (1983: p.24), after reviewing the cases of Inco, Noranda Mines Limited, Ontario Hydro and Cominco Limited, concludes that "[o]nly i n a very l i m i t e d number of cases have companies responded [when i d e n t i f i e d as a source causing an environmental problem] by u t i l i z i n g or eliminating the p o l l u t a n t s .  In instances where control orders have been  i n s t i t u t e d , companies have responded with the well worn argument that job losses and unbearable economic hardship for the company w i l l r e s u l t . " (Bracketed i n s e r t i o n added.) 4 1  Schumacher (1973), p.97.  4 2  Simon and Kahn (1984), pp.14-15.  4 3  Simon and Kahn (1984), p.14.  127  4 4  Henderson (1978), pp.29,31.  4 5  Henderson (1978), pp.172-173.  4 6  In Conditions of Economic Progress [the f i r s t e d i t i o n was published  in 1940, and the book was rewritten i n 1951 and 1957], Clark examined p r o d u c t i v i t i e s i n "primary," "manufacturing," and "service" industries (chs.V-VII).  The d e f i n i t i o n s of these three subdivisions of the economy  appear at the beginning of the corresponding chapter.  In the chapter on the  d i s t r i b u t i o n of labour (ch.IX), he reintroduced the generalization that "as time goes on and communities become more economically advanced, the numbers engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r e tend to decline r e l a t i v e to the numbers engaged i n manufacture, which i n t h e i r turn decline r e l a t i v e to the numbers engaged i n services" (p.492).  Foote and Hatt further developed the argument about the  s h i f t of labour force by breaking down Clark's service industries into t e r t i a r y , quaternary and quinary sectors [Foote and Hatt (1953): the d e f i n i t i o n s of the newly created three sectors appear on p.365].  If  i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i s i d e n t i f i e d with modernization and social/economic progress, the s h i f t of the labour force from primary sector to i t s deriving sectors can be regarded as an indicator to show how  "advanced" a p a r t i c u l a r  economy i s . 4 7  B e l l (1973), pp.14-17.  4 8  For example, see "General Schema of Social Change" given by B e l l  (1973), p.117. 4 9  E s p e c i a l l y , B e l l (1973), ch.3.  5 0  Brown (1981), p.350.  5 1  Brown (1981), p.366.  5 2  For example, see Henderson (1978), pp.21-23,116,266, and Brown  (1981), pp.365-369.  128  5 3  Trist  (1967), p.9.  5 4  Goulet (1971), p.155.  5 5  CCRD (1976), p.60.  5 6  Omo-Fadaka (1978), p.63.  3 7  Omo-Fadaka (1978), pp.58,61,64,65.  5 8  C l a v e l (1983), p.7.  5 9  C l a v e l (1983), p.7.  In Opposition Planning i n Wales and Appalachia,  Clavel examines the r o l e of planning i n his " f i r s t kind of regionalism," s c r u t i n i z i n g two cases, Wales and Appalachia, which remain "poor regions within r i c h countries" despite their early coal-related  far  development.  6 0  IUCN (1980), sec.4.  4 1  IUCN (1980), sees.1,7.  6 2  IUCN (1980), sec.7.  6 3  IUCN (1980), sec.7.  6 4  By 'a lesser extent,' I mean that rural areas have not yet gone so  (Gothicized i n o r i g i n a l . )  i n t o petroleum dependence.  For example, r u r a l areas would l i k e l y  survive even i f petroleum abruptly became unavailable while urban areas could not avoid a t o t a l breakdown. 6 5  IUCN (1980),  "Foreword."  6 6  IUCN (1980),  "Foreword."  6 7  Slocan V a l l e y Community Forest Management Project [hereafter, Slocan  Project] (1976), p . i i i . 6 8  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.41.  6 9  Slocan Project (1976), p.1.1.  7 0  Slocan Project (1976), p . i i i .  7 1  Slocan Project (1976), p . i i i .  (Bracketed insertions added.)  129  7 2  Slocan Project (1976), p . i i i .  7 3  Slocan Project (1976), p . i v .  7 4  Slocan Project (1976), p . i i i .  7 5  S e c . I l l "The E x i s t i n g S i t u a t i o n " describes d e t a i l on the existing  problems. 7 6  Slocan Project (1976), pp.4.43-4.45.  7 7  Slocan Project (1976), p.2.42.  7 8  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.42.  7 9  Slocan Project (1976), p p . x i i - x i i i .  8 0  Slocan Project (1976), p.3.36.  8 1  Slocan Project (1976), p.3.48.  8 2  For d e t a i l , see Slocan Project (1976), sec.3.4, "Environmental  (Emphasis i n o r i g i n a l . )  Impact." 8 3  Slocan Project (1976), p.3.51.  8 4  Slocan Project (1976), p.5.7.  8 5  Slocan Project (1976), p . x i i .  8 6  Slocan Project (1976), p p . x i - x i i .  The i n s u f f i c i e n c y i n management  budget (for example, understaffing of management personel) i s well i l l u s t r a t e d by the comparative analysis presented on pp.3.7-3.10. 8 7  Slocan Project (1976), p.3.7.  8 8  Slocan Project (1976), pp.3.1-3.6.  8 9  Slocan Project (1976), p . x i .  9 0  Slocan Project (1976), p . x i i .  9 1  Sec.II "History" i s devoted to the d e s c r i p t i o n of the valley's  history. 9 2  Slocan Project (1976), pp.2.26-2.40.  9 3  Slocan Project (1976), pp.2.23-2.24.  130  9 4  Slocan Project (1976), p . x i i .  9 5  Sec.IV "The Proposed Situation" i s a report of this research on the  l i f e - s u p p o r t i n g c a p a b i l i t i e s of the v a l l e y . 9 6  Slocan Project (1976), p . x i i .  9 7  I referred to the four basic assumptions given on p . x i i i .  9 8  For d e t a i l , see sec.V "Recommendations."  9 9  Slocan Project (1976), p . i .  1 0 0  Slocan Project (1976), p . i .  1 0 1  Shadrack (1981), p.142.  1 0 2  Shadrack (1981), p.142.  (Emphasis i n o r i g i n a l . )  1 0 3  Shadrack (1981), p.142.  (Bracketed insertions added.)  1 0 4  Shadrack (1981), p.141.  1 0 5  Slocan Project (1976), p . i .  1 0 6  Slocan Project (1976), p . i i .  1 0 7  Slocan Project (1976), p . i .  los  p  o r  (Emphasis i n o r i g i n a l . )  further d e t a i l about the Slocan Valley Watershed A l l i a n c e , see  Hammond (1986), pp.8-9. 1 0 9  Based on the information given by Hammond (1986), pp.8-9.  1 1 0  Hammond (1986), p.9.  1 1 1  Hammond (1986), p.8-9.  1 1 2  Aberley (1985), p.210.  1 1 3  Aberley (1985), p.210.  1 1 4  Slocan Project (1976), p . i .  1 1 5  According to Department of Industrial Development (1976: p.244), i n  1971, the average household income of the v a l l e y community was $6,502, and more than half of the households were with incomes below $5,000. The  131  average i n the Central Kootenay Region was $7,676, and that i n the whole Kootenays was $8,674. 1 1 6  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.1.  1 1 7  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.1.  1 1 8  Slocan Project (1976), pp.xi,5.36.  1 1 9  Slocan Project (1976), p . x i i i .  1 2 0  Slocan Project (1976), pp.5.1-5.2.  1 2 1  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.1.  1 2 2  Hanson (1972), p.48.  1 2 3  Grescoe (1973), p.3.  1 2 4  According to Lyon (1976: p.48), the town's labour turnover was 58  per cent a year. 1 2 5  Grescoe (1973), p.3.  1 2 6  Hanson (1972), p.48.  1 2 7  For reviewing the case of Ocean F a l l s , I referred to Hanson (1972),  (Bracketed insertions added.)  Grescoe (1973), Lyon (1976) and Bolan (1985). 1 2 8  The mining booms d i d not leave accumulated wealth nor matured  industries, though i t d i d leave depleted mineral veins and ghost towns. Innis (1935: p.256) describes the end of the mining boom around the turn of the century as follows: "Many mines were closed as a result of the 'shortsighted p o l i c y of gouging out a l l a v a i l a b l e ore and neglecting the proper development 1 2 9  i n advance of further ore bodies.'"  The mining history with the two peaks i n 1905 and 1917 has been  dominated by market p r i c e s , which are determined largely i n transactions outside the region.  For d e t a i l , see Slocan Project (1976), pp.2.23-2.24.  According to Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade, and Commerce (1970: pp.19-26), "exploration and production are very sensitive to changes  132  i n metal prices," and, when the H.B. Mine operated by Coroinco Ltd. was closed i n 1966 because of company p o l i c y , the residents could do nothing despite i t s s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the regional economic well-being. 1 3 0  Slocan Project (1976), p.5.22.  The authors state that the m i l l  "would be able to buy this material [from the proposed r u r a l woodlots] or trade the l o c a l residents for products.  At the present time one l o c a l  trucker i s hauling over 70,000 board feet of lumber a week into the Valley as a service to those people unable to buy wood i n the community.  . ..  Our m i l l would help solve this dilemma by providing a wide range of products at a reasonable price while creating jobs at the same time."  (p.5.22.  Bracketed i n s e r t i o n added.) 1 3 1  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.52.  (Italicized in original.  Bracketed  i n s e r t i o n added.) 1 3 2  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.49.  1 3 3  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.50.  1 3 4  See Odum (1971), pp.186-187.  1 3 5  See Odum (1971), p.188.  1 3 6  E h r l i c h , E h r l i c h and Holdren (1977), p.104.  1 3 7  Putman and Wratten (1984), p.130.  1 3 8  Odum (1971), p.183.  1 3 9  Ricklefs (1976), p.247.  1 4 0  Ricklefs (1973), p.504.  1 4 1  According to Rees (1977: pp.4,6): "Obviously i f the demands of a  (Emphasis i n o r i g i n a l . )  population exceed the carrying capacity of the environment, negative feedback (e.g., malnutrition and disease) w i l l operate to reduce i t s numbers.  Thus, carrying capacity i s simply an operational term for the  ' l i m i t s to (population) growth.'"  133  1 4 2  Hardin (1968), p.1244.  1 4 3  Godschalk (1974), p.331.  1 4 4  Willard (1971), p.118.  1 4 5  Willard (1971), p.119.  1 4 6  For example, Brandborg  (Bracketed insertion added.) (1963) presents the idea of "use capacity"  of a wilderness area, and warns an "over-burden of public use" of wilderness areas, which may r e s u l t i n destruction of the q u a l i t i e s of wilderness. In t h i s a r t i c l e , the concept of carrying capacity i s used as an e x p l i c i t l i m i t a t i o n inherent to an area which "should not be exceeded." 1 4 7  For example, Jaakson (1971), who applies the capacity notion to  lake planning, presents the idea of zoning f o r on-water recreation.  His way  of zoning, which i s based on the assessment of [ l ] physical c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the area under study; [2] c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each human use such as swimming and water s k i i n g ; and [3] e c o l o g i c a l requirements to maintain the lake environment, appears very similar to the methods employed i n carryingcapacity approaches to urban and regional land-use planning.  Stankey  (1972), who develops the notion of s o c i o l o g i c a l carrying capacity i n the context of wilderness management (a schematic presentation i s available on p.99), i s another example.  S o c i a l l y determined capacity i s usually a  c r u c i a l factor i n carrying-capacity studies f o r regional growth management. 1 4 8  Schneider et a l . (1978), p . l .  1 4 9  Godschalk (1974), p.331 and Godschalk (1977), p. 11.  1 5 0  Godschalk (1974), p.331.  1 5 1  Rahenkamp and McLeister (1977), pp.13-14.  1 5 2  See Schneider et a l . (1978), pp.8-9, and Odell (1974), pp.26-28.  1 5 3  Schneider et a l . (1978), p. 10.  134  1 5 4  Schneider et a l . (1978), p.10.  1 5 5  Schneider et a l . (1978), p.10.  1 5 6  Odell (1974), p.26.  1 5 7  Simon and Kahn (1984), p.45.  1 5 8  Brown (1980), pp.92-93.  1 5 9  Brown (1980), p.93.  1 6 0  Brown (1980), p.18.  1 6 1  Brown (1980), P.18.  1 6 2  Brown (1980), p.103.  1 6 3  Shinohara (1986), p.120.  1 6 4  Rees (1986), p.4.  1 6 5  Brown (1980), p.18.  1 6 6  Simon and Kahn (1984), p.2.  1 6 7  Godschalk and Parker (1975), p.162.  1 6 8  Nieswand and Pizor (1977), p.8.  1 6 9  I developed the idea of region's i n t r i n s i c c a p a b i l i t y to  (Bracketed i n s e r t i o n added.)  (The f i r s t sentence i t a l i c i z e d i n o r i g i n a l . )  (Bracketed i n s e r t i o n added.)  accommodate human beings, helped by a v i s u a l image of Rees' (1977: pp.7-14) regional capsule and McHarg's (1969: p.98) large b e l l j a r . 1 7 0  I developed this idea based on Rees (1977), pp.4,6-7.  According to  Rees (1977: pp.6-7), "we have the p o t e n t i a l to regard population as a function of desired "quality of l i f e "  (including material standard of  l i v i n g ) and technological sophistication ( a b i l i t y to increase production and l i m i t adverse environmental impact)." 1 7 1  Slocan Project (1976), p.1.2.  1 7 2  Slocan Project (1976), p.1.2.  1 7 3  Slocan Project (1976), pp.5 .3,5.5-5.7.  1 7 4  Berg and Dasmann (1978), p.218.  (Italicized i n original.)  135  1 7 5  Berg and Dasmann (1978), p.218.  (Bracketed insertion added.)  1 7 6  Sale (1985), pp.55-56.  1 7 7  Sale (1985), p.59.  1 7 8  Dodge (1981), p.6.  1 7 9  Aberley (1985), p.208.  1 8 0  Sale (1985), pp.56-57.  1 8 1  Sale (1985), pp.57-58.  1 8 2  Sale (1985), pp.58-59.  1 8 3  Slocan Project (1976), p.4.1.  1 8 4  Murota (1979), pp.60-61.  1 8 5  Bookchin (1982), p.45.  1 8 6  Schneider et a l . (1978), p.2.  1 8 7  I use the term "an area's perceived capacity" because  (Emphasis added.)  A diagram i s given on p.168.  i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n often r e s u l t s i n reducing the land's productivity by inducing environmental p o l l u t i o n and resource depletion. may not be sustained i n the long run.  This enhancement  If this i s the case, this enhancement  should not be regarded as an increase i n the area's carrying capacity. Okui (1986), p.11.  1 8 8  is?  R  e  e  s  (1977),  p.8.  (Bracketed i n s e r t i o n added.)  1 9 0  See Nieswand and Pizor (1977).  1 9 1  Some people may believe that we can duplicate natural  life-  supporting systems, f o r example i n space-colonies, and thereby become decoupled from the bioshpere.  This technocratic solution, however, can be  only made possible at a tremendous ecological expense, that i s , i t requires massive consumption of natural resources and hazardous discharge of pollutants and waste heat i n t o the natural environment.  I believe that the  136  planet's environment cannot a f f o r d such a huge expense, and therefore this solution can save only a t i n y f r a c t i o n of the global population, i f at a l l , not  the  every one of us. 1 9 2  Rees (1986), p . i .  1 9 3  Rees (1986), p.2.  1 9 4  Rees (1986), p.5.  1 9 5  McHarg (1969), p.98.  1 9 6  For d e t a i l , see Rees (1986).  1 9 7  Hammond (1986), p.9.  1 9 8  Hokkaido, one of the four major islands, i s located to the north of  (Emphasized i n o r i g i n a l . )  rest and i t s climate including fauna and f l o r a i s s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t  from that of the r e s t .  This i s where the people c a l l e d "Ainu," which means  "people" i n their language, had u n t i l recently l i v e d a subsistence l i f e . The immigration of the Japanese, who dominate the i s l a n d today, began about a century ago. 1 9 9  The Ryukyu Islands with Okinawa as the main i s l a n d are to the south  of the four major islands.  Since the Ryukyu Islands are located i n the warm  Japan Current, they share a unique climate.  The people i n these islands  have developed their own culture, and they kept an independent kingdom u n t i l i t was conquered by one of the feudal lords of Kyushu, one of the four major islands, i n 1609. 2 0 0  the  According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery, i n  f i s c a l year of 1984  ( A p r i l 1984 - March 1985), self-supply r a t i o s (the  amount of domestic production divided by the amount of domestic  consumption  and multiplied by 100) are as follows: cereals 34 ( r i c e 109, wheat 12, barley 15, rye 105, minor cereals 0); potatoes 97; beans 9 (soybean 5, others 47); vegetables 95; f r u i t 73; meat 80 (beef 72, pork 84, chicken 93,  137  whale meat 48, others 2); eggs 99; milk and dairy products 86; fishes and s h e l l f i s h e s 104  [ i n the f i s c a l year of 1980]; sea plants 75; sugar 33; o i l s  and fats 29 (vegetable o i l 7, animal fats 94) [in 1980]. (1986), p.823.)  (Taken from Ueda  According to the Ministry of International Trade and  Industry, Japan imported 64.4 per cent of wood consumed i n the country i n 1983.  (Ueda(1986), p.803.) 2 0 1  Ueda (1986), p.219.  2 0 2  As f o r r i c e production, labour e f f i c i e n c y increased about 2.5 times  from 1950 to 1975. dramatically.  On the other hand, f o s s i l - f u e l - r e l a t e d inputs increased  For example, the use of machinery increased 11.6 times per  unit of land i n terms of consumed energy.  The consumption  of f e r t i l i z e r s  and pesticides/herbicides also expanded 4.1 times and 32.5 times, respectively.  (Based on the data given by Tsuchida (1981), p.29.)  Tsuchida  (1981: p.30) argues that i t i s misleading to say the self-supply r a t i o of r i c e exceeds one hundred per cent i n Japan because r i c e i s a commodity that i s produced by the heavy subsidization of imported petroleum.  As for meat  production, the self-supply r a t i o of forage and grain was about 30 per cent i n 1985.  For the purpose of producing milk and dairy goods, this r a t i o  less than 20 percent. 2 0 3  was  See Ueda (1986), p.219.  For example, Shiina (1978: pp.14-17) argues that i n many cases  mechanization has resulted i n kikaika-binbo (mechanization poverty) and thereby f o r c i n g farmers to work far away from home during winter, and that use of chemical f e r t i l i z e r s and pesticides/herbicides has resulted i n not only degrading natural f e r t i l i t y of farm land but also causing physical and mental disorder i n humans.  According to Ogushi (1972: pp.25-28), about  f i f t y farmers were k i l l e d by chemical poisoning every year i n the 1960s and the early 1970s (excluding suicides), and 23 to 31 per cent of the  138  interviewed  farmers claimed that they had experienced p h y s i c a l disorder when  or after sprinkling pesticides/herbicides i n Nagano and Fukui  Prefectures.  139  REFERENCES  Aberley, Douglas C a r r o l l . (1985). Bioregionalism: A T e r r i t o r i a l Approach to Governance and Development of Northwest B r i t i s h Columbia. Diss. Univ. of B r i t i s h Columbia. B e l l , Daniel. Basic Books.  (1973).  The Coming of Post-Industrial Society.  New York:  Berg, Peter and Raymond F. Dasmann. (1978). "Reinhabiting C a l i f o r n i a . " Berg (ed.), Reinhabiting a Separate Country, pp.217-220. San Francisco: Planet Drum Foundation. Bolan, Kim. (1985). "Bulldozers Set to Plow Part of Town." Sun, 20 Aug. 1985, p.Al, c o l . l ; p.A12, cols.1-4. Bookchin, Murray. Cheshire.  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