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Revenue recovery strategies for the Alaska public cabin program Keeler, Kevin R. 1987

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REVENUE RECOVERY FOR  STRATEGIES  THE  ALASKA PUBLIC USE CABIN PROGRAM By K E V I N R. KEELER A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y and R e g i o n a l  We a c c e p t  t h i s t h e s i s as  to the r e q u i r e d  Planning  conforming  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA January  1987  ©Kevin R. K e e l e r ,  1987  In p r e s e n t i n g requirements  this  thesis  B r i t i s h Columbia,  it  freely  for  available  that  permission  that  that  for reference  d e p a r t m e n t o r by h i s for  I agree  the  the  Library  f i n a n c i a l gain  shall  and s t u d y .  may be g r a n t e d by t h e  I  It  this  s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t  Q~^~-^<i? P *cy<~*4L Pfi^^j  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h 1956 Main Mall V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1Y3 Date  DE-6  (3/81)  '/st/tP  Columbia  make  further this  permission.  Department o f  the  thesis  h e a d o f my  or her r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .  copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of  of  University  for extensive copying of  s c h o l a r l y purposes  understood  fulfilment  f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t  of  agree  in partial  is  thesis my w r i t t e n  ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s e v a l u a t e s a range of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s techniques  for application  Divergent  p r e m i s e s o f two  evaluated  using  The  two  policy  policy  t o an policy  p r o g r a m . The  from program user o p e r a t i o n and  revenue recovery  Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n  d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC  legislative  p r o g r a m . The  of a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y .  initiatives  Because  past  failed,  of a  concessionaire  This t h e s i s determines which p o l i c y would ensure  continued  o p e r a t i o n and  d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC  i n f l u e n c e over  these  the  program.  a n a l y s i s i s used to c a t e g o r i z e  s t r e n g t h s and  has  the  strategy.  operational  use  revenues  Division  f o r p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s have  D i v i s i o n s t a f f have p r o p o s e d i m p l e m e n t a t i o n  Classification  for  c o n s t r a i n t f o r the  proposed t h a t the A l a s k a L e g i s l a t u r e a u t h o r i z e implementation  public  l a c k of a mechanism to r e c o v e r  f e e s i s the p r i m a r y  and  techniques.  a l t e r n a t i v e s concern and  choice.  a l t e r n a t i v e s are d e f i n e d  impact a n a l y s i s  the A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Parks c a b i n (PUC)  i s s u e of p o l i c y  the  w e a k n e s s e s o f e a c h p o l i c y , and  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Assumptional  agency  analysis i s  used t o d e f i n e the d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers. These premises are developed  as s c e n a r i o s o f p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s w i t h i n  the framework of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y  ii  d e b a t e . The  impacts  of  the  scenarios and  are forecast  using  p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e made f o r an o p t i m u m p o l i c y  techniques, strategy.  A s i g n i f i c a n t weakness o f t h e program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s that i t i s uncertain Legislature. forecast  w h e t h e r i t w i l l be a u t h o r i z e d  The f a i l u r e  by t h e  of L e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s  t o have s i g n i f i c a n t m i d - t e r m i m p a c t s on t h e PUC  p r o g r a m . The p r i m a r y i m p a c t w o u l d be t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f facilities;  combined w i t h  may be f o r c e d  program o p e r a t i o n s  program  a viable alternative for  and d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e r e f o r e ,  concessionaire to the  receipts policy.  methods a p p l i e d t o t h i s case study a r e u s e f u l f o r  the development o f , o r the c r i t i c a l  directives. structured and  would provide  i s recommended a s a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y  The either  budget c u t b a c k s , t h e D i v i s i o n  t o abandon t h e PUC p r o g r a m . I m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a  concessions strategy  operation  further  evaluation  of p o l i c y  The t e c h n i q u e s o f a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s o r t h e p o l i c y d e b a t e c a n be u s e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e a s s u m p t i o n s  p r e m i s e s o f p o l i c y m a k e r s . The s t r u c t u r e d  p o l i c y debate  p r o v i d e s a means t o c h e c k t h e l o g i c o f a p o l i c y a r g u m e n t . Policy  i m p a c t a n a l y s i s p r o v i d e s a means o f f o r e c a s t i n g o r  m e a s u r i n g t h e o u t c o m e o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Taken t o g e t h e r , techniques provide policy  f o r a normative evaluation  choice.  iii  the  of issues of  also  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT LIST  i  OF  CHAPTER  FIGURES 1  1.1  1.1.1  OF  THESIS  Subsidiary  1.1.3  Scope  1.1.4  1.2.2  Structuring  1.2.3  Structured  1.2.4  Policy  1.4  7  the Problem  7  Impact  Debate  Analysis  2  CASE  OF  9 11  RESULTS  ANALYSIS  DEFINITION  CHAPTER  7  Information  Policy  ORGANIZATION AND OF  2.1  of  4  6  ANALYSIS  Sources  1  6  Significance  1.2.1  1.3  Questions  of A n a l y s i s  METHODS OF  1 1  Problem Statement Defined  1.1.2  1.2  i x  CASE STUDY INTRODUCTION  PURPOSE  i  12 TERMS  STUDY  OVERVIEW  INTRODUCTION  14 16 16  2.2  RECREATION CABIN PROGRAMS IN ALASKA 2.2.1 P r o g r a m Demand and Agency Response 2.2.2  State  Facility  2.2.3  State  Program  17 17  Development Development iv  18 19  TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 2.3  REVENUE  RECOVERY  CONSTRAINTS  21  2.4  REVENUE  RECOVERY  ALTERNATIVES  23  2.4.1  Legislative Initiatives  2.4.2 CHAPTER 3  Concessions  Proposal  INTRODUCTION  3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.2  Objectives  SCOPE  OF  3.2.2  Policy  PROBLEM  Environment  STRUCTURING  Survey  3.3.2  Classification Procedure  3.3.3  33  Implementation  3.3.1  METHODS  of Methods  Assumptional  4.2  36 37  Analysis 41 43  REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF POLICY ANALYSIS  4.1  35  39  SUMMARY  CHAPTER 4  34  Analysis  Procedure 3.4  28 30 32  ANALYSIS  Defining  27 27  Problem Statement S i g n i f i c a n c e Subsidiary Questions  3.2.1  3.3  25  REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROBLEM STRUCTURING TECHNIQUES  3.1  23  TECHNIQUES  INTRODUCTION  45 45  DEVELOPMENT OF A.NALYS I S FRAMEWORK  v  46  TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 4.3  STRUCTURED  4.3.1 4.4  Debate  POLICY  4.4.1 4.4.2 4.4.3  POLICY  DEBATE  48  Elements  50  IMPACT ANALYSIS  Program  ELEMENTS  Objectives  Program  54  Activities  Performance  55  Measurement  Criteria 4.5  56  POLICY CHARACTERISTICS POLICY  5.1 5.2  ASSUMPTIONS  58 58  APPLYING C L A S S I F I C A T I O N ANALYSIS THE  PROGRAM  5.3.1 5.3.2 5.3.3 5.3.4 5.4  MAKER  AND  INTRODUCTION  TO 5.3  55  SUMMARY  CHAPTER 5  53  CASE  STUDY  RECEIPTS  Revenue  59 POLICY  Recovery  Procedures  Implementation Program  Operations  Identifying  CONCESSION  Process  Uncertainty  POLICY  5.4.1  Implementation  5.4.2  Revenue  5.4.3  Program  5.4.4  Identifying  60 60 61 63 65 67  Process  Recovery  Process  Operations Uncertainty vi  69 72 72 73  TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 5.5  INTERPRETATION  OF  5.6  ASSUMPTIONAL  ANALYSIS  78  of Procedure  78  5.6.1  Overview  5.6.2  Agency  5.6.3 5.7  Areas  SUMMARY  CHAPTER 6  RESULTS  Director  79  Superintendent  82  AND  84  CONCLUSIONS  POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RECOVERY A L T E R N A T I V E S  6.1  INTRODUCTION  6.2  DEVELOPMENT  DEBATE  6.2.1  Uncertainty  Issue  6.2.2  Policy  6.2.3  Contingency Policy  6.3  POLICY  6.3.1  Failure  Policy  ISSUES  Issue Issue  IMPACT ANALYSIS  ELEMENTS  Objectives  6.3.3  Performance Measurement C r i t e r i a  6.4.1 6.4.2  Activities  SCENARIO:  Policy Policy  POLICY  / Program I m p a c t s on  P O L I C Y SCENARIO:  6.5.1  Policy  95  98  FAILURE  Performance  99 101 103  Program  Objectives 6.5  93  96  Program  POLICY  92  94  6.3.2  6.4  88 91  Claim  Program  87 87  OF  6.2.4  75  104 POLICY MODIFICATION  / Program  Performance vii  108 109  TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page  6.5.2 6.6  P o l i c y I m p a c t s on Program O b j e c t i v e s  112  SUMMARY AND C O N C L U S I O N S  CHAPTER  7  SUMMARY  AND CONCLUSIONS  7.1  INTRODUCTION  7.2  METHODOLOGICAL  7.2.1 7.2.2 7.2.3  116  121 CONCLUSIONS  Approach  Analysis  Techniques 125  Techniques  Reviewed 7.2.4 7.3  Further  122 124  Problem S t r u c t u r i n g Reviewed Policy  121  126 Application  128  POLICY C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S  7.3.1  Program  7.3.2  Concessions Policy  131  7.3.3  Stakeholder  133  7.4  ANALYTICAL  Receipts  129  Policy  Assumptions  CONCLUSIONS  130  134  7.4.1  Uncertainty  of Authorization  7.4.2  Policy  7.4.3  Contingency  Policy  Impacts  136  7.4.4  Recommended  Policy  Strategy  137  Failure  Impacts  BIBLIOGRAPHY  134 135  139  viii  L I S T OF FIGURES Page 3.1  POLICY PROCESS  6.1  STRUCTURE  OF  MODEL  POLICY  33 DEBATE  ix  89  CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE OF THESIS 1.1.1 P r o b l e m The  Defined  purpose of t h i s  thesis i s to evaluate  of two a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d constraints program.  t o overcome  the e f f e c t i v e n e s s development  f o r t h e S t a t e o f A l a s k a p u b l i c u s e c a b i n (PUC)  This a n a l y s i s f o l l o w s the authors  involvement  w i t h the  d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m a s an e m p l o y e e o f t h e A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Parks  and O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n  (AK DPOR) f r o m  1984 t o  1986. P u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n p r o g r a m s have been o p e r a t e d i n Alaska 1930s.  by t h e U n i t e d  States Forest  Today, v a r i o u s r e s o u r c e  government operate  over  S e r v i c e (USFS) s i n c e t h e  management a g e n c i e s  200 c a b i n s  in- the state.  of federal  Surveys  have  shown t h a t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f new p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s i s t h e number one c h o i c e o f s t a t e r e s i d e n t s when p o l l e d a b o u t preferences of P a r k s ,  f o r new r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s ( A l a s k a  Division  1981, p.39).  Members o f t h e A l a s k a L e g i s l a t u r e have r e s p o n d e d t o t h e demand f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l c a b i n s  1  by i n t r o d u c i n g •  legislation  i n the  1984  w o u l d have p r o v i d e d of p i l o t vetoed  and  1986  f o r the  legislative  initial  systems of c a b i n s .  capital  sessions and  i n Chapter As  lands,  operating  be  discussed  more  Two.  the p r i m a r y  the A l a s k a  a g e n c y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r r e c r e a t i o n on  D i v i s i o n of Parks  and  Outdoor  systems t o t a l l i n g  13 c a b i n s .  without  any  These c a b i n s  legislative  managers used d i v e r t e d funds,  efforts,  and  pilot  were r e h a b i l i t a t e d  appropriation.  division  state  Recreation  r e s p o n d e d t o p u b l i c demand w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f f o u r  constructed  costs  These i n i t i a t i v e s w e r e u l t i m a t e l y  by t h e g o v e r n o r f o r r e a s o n s t h a t w i l l  fully  that  staff  time,  or  Instead, volunteer  donated m a t e r i a l s f o r the development of  the  cabins. The  primary  c o n s t r a i n t to the development of the  p u b l i c use c a b i n p r o g r a m i s t h e revenues from rental  user  fees.  f e e f o r t h e use  been r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h e are r e l u c t a n t to put will for  ability  Although  their  full  these  r e v e n u e s have n e v e r  As a r e s u l t , support  agency  behind  i n e v i t a b l y c o s t them i n t e r m s o f f u n d s and which there The  Alaska  i s no g u a r a n t e e d o p e r a t i n g  source  Statute  of  (AS)  fund  of  compete w i t h o t h e r  managers  a program  that  man-hours,  yet  appropriation.  this constraint i s primarily statutorial. 41.21.030 m a n d a t e s  r e c e i v e d from the o p e r a t i o n the g e n e r a l  program  t h e DPOR c h a r g e s a n i g h t l y  of the c a b i n s , agency.  to r e c o v e r  Alaska  the  that a l l revenues  of p a r k f a c i l i t i e s  state.  Therefore,  s t a t e agencies  2  f o r the  be d e p o s i t e d  t h e D i v i s i o n must legislative  in  allocation 696, by  of program revenues.  would as of J u l y  t h e DPOR i l l e g a l The  A second c o n s t r a i n t ,  1, 1987 make t h e c o l l e c t i o n  without  recovery of user  of user  Bill  fees  statutorial authorization. fees t o fund r e c r e a t i o n program  o p e r a t i o n s i s a common p r a c t i c e w i t h s t a t e and f e d e r a l throughout  House  the United States.  In A l a s k a ,  provides f o rthe recovery of user  agencies  the Granger-Thye Act  f e e s f o r t h e m a i n t e n a n c e and  o p e r a t i o n o f US F o r e s t S e r v i c e r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s . In  response  t o the c o n s t r a i n t s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , the  DPOR h a s p r o p o s e d t h a t t h e 1987 L e g i s l a t u r e c o n s i d e r an o m n i b u s fee b i l l  t h a t would i n c l u d e revenue recovery  f o r t h e PUC  p r o g r a m v i a an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e c h a n i s m known a s t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s account.  T h i s mechanism i s designed  l e g i s l a t i v e p r e c e d e n c e o f an a u t o m a t i c  to e s t a b l i s h the  a p p r o p r i a t i o n back t o  the agency r e s p o n s i b l e f o r revenue c o l l e c t i o n , funds  a r e used t o o p e r a t e  originally  collected.  Recognizing  t h e program from w h i c h t h e funds  In e f f e c t ,  to s u b s i d i z e the program, the past  given that  those were  program revenues a r e designed  instead of public allocations. f a i l u r e s of l e g i s l a t i v e  initiatives  f o r t h e PUC p r o g r a m , i n A u g u s t 1 9 8 6 a p r o p o s a l w a s made by a n agency s t a f f  member t o d e v e l o p  system o f cabins. superintendent PUCs and t w e l v e  a c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n f o r one  T h i s p r o p o s a l was made by a p a r k  r e s p o n s i b l e f o ra park potential  unit with four operating  additions to this  3  system.  Concession an a l t e r n a t i v e program  with  agency  a private  This policy  and  issue,  for  concessions  the  primary  PUCs  the  and  program  operator  would  allocation of  the  proposal,  program  s u m m a r i z e d as  this  the  operation  development  supporting  highlights  of  mechanism of  be r e s p o n s i b l e  maintenance  for  to the  alternative, and  operation  taken for  addressed  a question,  long  been  development receipts. collect of  considered  of  the  Under  this  a l l user  those  fees  fees,  for  the  cabins.  receipts  issue  has  forms  in  light  of  the  agency  revenue  recovery,  in  analysis.  this  the  problem  That  statement  thesis:  Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s or c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s the most e f f e c t i v e alternative f o r e n s u r i n g t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m ? This revenue  recovery  operation problem  and  statement.  a  a number  of  assumptions,  requisite  to  continued  development. are  This  and o t h e r  articulated  for  as  program  issues  analysis  such  raised  by w a y o f  by  the  the  question.  Subsidiary Five  makes  being  statement  subsidiary 1.1.2  question  Questions  subsidiary  questions  A d i s c u s s i o n of  seen  in  Chapter  Three.  with  a description  of  The the  the  have  4  d e r i v e d from  development  first  issue  been  and  three  of  these  questions  problem(s)  at  the  problem  question  are hand:  is  concerned  (1) What a r e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s a n d o f e a c h p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and the c a u s e s o f characteristics? (2) I f i m p l e m e n t e d most v u l n e r a b l e to  separately, failure?  at  what  point  weaknesses these  is  each  policy  ( 3 ) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s i f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was n o t s u c c e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t e d ?  The the  final  proposed  evaluation  two  subsidiary  alternative,  of  the  two  and  question provide  address  a  forum  the  for  e f f i c a c y of  the  policies:  ( 4 ) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e PUC p r o g r a m f r o m implementation of a concessions policy? ( 5 ) W h a t w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e a g e n c y f r o m implementation of a concessions p o l i c y ? Based five  on  the  objectives (1)  problem  have  To m a k e  been  statement  and  subsidiary  identified  for  this  a normative  evaluation  of  the  questions,  study:  policy  alternatives;  (2) t o e v a l u a t e a r a n g e o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s a p p l i c a t i o n to t h i s c a s e and s i m i l a r c a s e s ; (3) t o d e s c r i b e t h e o p e r a t i o n a l p o l i c y , and i d e n t i f y the p o i n t s alternative; (4) t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e d i v e r g e n t makers i n the development of the structure; (5) t o d e v e l o p s c e n a r i o s alternative policies;  of  substantive criteria  for  objectives  have  function.  They w i l l  the  evaluation  both  premises of policy policy analysis  program  operations  and  5  under  alternatives  a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l and be  for  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of each  (6) t o a s s e s s the i m p a c t s o f the p o l i c y p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t . These  the  used  as  methodological  a p p l i c a t i o n of  appropriate  the on  policy  analysis  techniques  methods a r e chosen, conclusions w i l l and  subsidiary  1.1.3  and  to t h i s  study.  Once t h e a p p r o p r i a t e  t h e above o b j e c t i v e s f u l f i l l e d ,  be d r a w n i n a n s w e r t o t h e p r o b l e m  statement  questions.  Scope o f A n a l y s i s The  scope of t h i s  outcome of p o l i c y  t h e s i s f o c u s e s on  implementation.  Of  the p r o c e s s  special  alternative.  As  seen  in section  3.2,  the d e f i n i t i o n  scope of t h i s study i s taken from a P o l i c y P r o c e s s developed In  by  Shank  are  policy of  the  Model  t h i s model, program development c o n s t r a i n t s w i l l  the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .  environment,  be  or, external  This analysis w i l l  which p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e i s best s u i t e d  these c o n s t r a i n t s ,  the  (1983 , p.12).  c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t o f t h e p o l i c y  determine  and  interest  i m p a c t s o f p r o g r a m c o n s t r a i n t s on t h e o u t c o m e o f e a c h  and  substantive  to  attempt  to  to respond  to  w h i l e e n s u r i n g c o n t i n u e d program o p e r a t i o n  development.  1.1.4  Significance The  never policy  Alaska Division  f o r m a l l y undertaken alternatives  o f P a r k s and  Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n  an a n a l y s i s o f t h e i m p a c t s  f o r revenue recovery.  has  of the  This analysis  will  p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t t h e a g e n c y does n o t o t h e r w i s e have t i m e o r money t o  develop.  6  two  the  For t h e a u t h o r , address will  t h i s a n a l y s i s provides the opportunity t o  a l o n g s t a n d i n g i s s u e from o u t s i d e o f t h e agency.  It  a l l o w f o r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f m e t h o d s and e x p r e s s i o n o f  opinions unconstrained offers  by a g e n c y p r o t o c o l .  This a n a l y s i s a l s o  the opportunity to test different policy  techniques,  w i t h the aim of a p p l y i n g the framework developed similar  cases  herein to  i n the future.  1.2 METHODS OF ANALYSIS 1.2.1  Sources of I n f o r m a t i o n The  author  i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s was g a t h e r e d  by t h e  b e t w e e n A u g u s t o f 1984 and A u g u s t o f 1986. D u r i n g  that  t i m e , t h e a u t h o r w a s e m p l o y e d by t h e AK DPOR t o u n d e r t a k e management p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y d e v e l o p m e n t f o r t h e PUC p r o g r a m . Other r e l a t e d assignments i n c l u d e d the d r a f t i n g of l e g i s l a t i o n t h a t would e s t a b l i s h a program r e c e i p t s account  f o r the  p r o g r a m , and c o o r d i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m w i t h o t h e r within  the A l a s k a Department o f N a t u r a l The  l i t e r a t u r e review  divisions  Resources.  and d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h i s c a s e  study  t o o k p l a c e b e t w e e n S e p t e m b e r 1986 and J a n u a r y 1987. 1.2.2  S t r u c t u r i n g the Problem The  to  t h e case  techniques to  first  broad  study  category  are problem  structuring  techniques.  h e l p t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e i s s u e s and  d e f i n i t i o n of the p o l i c y  structured  of a n a l y s i s techniques  f o ranalysis.  factors  applied These critical  p r o b l e m a r e i d e n t i f i e d and  S e c t i o n 3.3 p r o v i d e s a d e t a i l e d 7  review  of these to  techniques, including  t h i s case  these  techniques, The  using  study. and  F i v e i s devoted  techniques  and  combined w i t h the r e l a t e d  p.23).  technique  would p r o v i d e answers to the f i r s t That i s , i t would f a c i l i t a t e  allow  and  to the p r o c e s s  The  analysis.  I t i s designed  the  "pros  This information w i l l  analysis,  subsidiary questions. of  the  alternative, associated I t would  also  analysis w i l l  be  of  identification  makers i n v o l v e d i n the s e l e c t e d  study, cons"  along with uncovering of each p o l i c y  a l s o be u s e f u l i n c h e c k i n g and  new  alternative.  the r e s u l t s  for further articulation  of  of  problem.  These t e c h n i q u e s , w h i l e p r o v i d i n g f o r t h e d e f i n i t i o n important  or  implementation.  F i v e ) u s i n g the method  and  the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , the p o l i c y  when  to i n t r o d u c e the d i v e r g e n t p o s i t i o n s of  p o l i c y makers i n t o t h i s case p e r s p e c t i v e s on  problematic  technique,  T h i s method a i m s a t t h e  of the assumptions of p o l i c y  Classification  o f c a u s a l f a c t o r s as i n t e r n a l  r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  assumptional  developed  of a  the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n  of p o l i c y  f u r t h e r examined ( i n Chapter  case.  two  p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y .  f o r the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n  external  is  of h i e r a r c h y  weaknesses of each p o l i c y  causal factors,  study  This  application  results.  classification  (O'Shaughnessy , 1972,  s t r e n g t h s and  to the  of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s .  i s the " d e f i n i t i o n  situation"  f o r a p p l y i n g them  the d e f i n i t i o n of t h e i r  problem s t r u c t u r e f o r t h i s case  two  analysis  Chapter  the procedure  of  background i n f o r m a t i o n , w i l l not p r o v i d e a framework 8  of  for is  the e v a l u a t i o n of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . developed  u s i n g the techniques  of  This  framework  "a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y  debate." 1.2.3  Structured Policy In  t h i s case  recovery  policies  Debate  study,  because n e i t h e r of the  have been o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d , i t i s n e c e s s a r y  f o r e c a s t the outcome of t h e i r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n their potential  impacts.  The  end  scenario  building.  i s known as Scenario  building  provides  o f "what i f " q u e s t i o n s .  fourth,  and  if"  situations.  i n order to  the v e h i c l e to a s s e s s For  i n s t a n c e , the  third  third,  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n asks  "what  (what) i f a  r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y m e c h a n i s m w e r e n o t i m p l e m e n t e d , what w o u l d impacts  be?  The  f o u r t h and  fifth  subsidiary questions  ( w h a t ) i f c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n was the impacts In  the course  I attempted these  scenarios.  I t was  a technique  critiques  f o r the premises  complement the n o r m a t i v e  or t e c h n i q u e s  i m p l i c i t reasoning,  for  analysis, framing would  develop  s u p p o r t i n g t h e s c e n a r i o s , and approach of t h i s  Dunn's m o d e l f o r a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y c h o s e n as  for this  hoped t h a t s u c h a t e c h n i q u e  p r o v i d e a means t o i d e n t i f y  be  agency o p e r a t i o n s ?  of the l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w  to i d e n t i f y  the  ask  i m p l e m e n t e d , what w o u l d  on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and  this  the  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s a r e p r e d i c a t e d on The  to  assess  method of f o r e c a s t i n g used to  impacts  fifth  revenue  the framework t o develop 9  study. d e b a t e was  finally  t h e "what i f " q u e s t i o n s f o r  this analysis. arranged  T h i s model c o n t a i n s seven e l e m e n t s t h a t  s e q u e n t i a l l y to l e a d the a n a l y s t or reader  are  from  n e u t r a l p i e c e of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n " , through number o f p o l i c y s u b - a r g u m e n t s and conclusion  (1981,  Using The  first  policy  this  model,  concerns  impacts  three p o l i c y  sub-issues  to l e g i s l a t i v e veto.  are defined.  The  on t h e p r o g r a m i f a r e v e n u e  implemented,  of concession  recommendation w i l l revenue  final  the u n c e r t a i n t y , or v u l n e r a b i l i t y  the impacts  i s not  a  p.43)  program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y concerns  r e b u t t a l s to a  a  and  the t h i r d  operations.  the  second  issue  recovery  issue concerns  B a s e d on  be made t o s u g g e s t  of  these  the  issues, a  an o p t i m u m p o l i c y f o r  recovery.  E a c h o f t h e s e t h r e e i s s u e s c a n be c o n s i d e r e d a s a p r e m i s e for  or a g a i n s t a revenue recovery  t e s t s of these p r e m i s e s problem statement In  order  and  will the  to t e s t  final  these premises.  Two  Cook and  questions. Scioli's  model  be a p p l i e d t o s c e n a r i o s b a s e d  different scenarios w i l l  o p e r a t i o n s b e t w e e n J u l y o f 1987  the  three subsidary  these premises,  analysis will  p r o g r a m w i t h no  U l t i m a t e l y , the  a f f o r d an a n s w e r t o  of p o l i c y impact  PUC  policy.  and  detail  J u l y o f 1989,  means o f r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y ,  and  program  first  for a  second,  under c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n f o r revenue r e c o v e r y .  Included  are d e s c r i p t i o n s of the o p e r a t i o n of a r e s e r v a t i o n system, m a i n t e n a n c e a c t i v i t i e s , and program r e l a t i v e  agency p r i o r i t i z a t i o n  to other programs. 10  on  of  the  Essentially, with  the  a p p l i c a t i o n o f an  impact a n a l y s i s , these scenarios  p o i n t of e v a l u a t i o n  and  c o m p a r i s o n f o r the  two  become  the  alternative  policies. 1.2.4  Policy  Impact  Cook and  Scioli  concerned w i t h is  concerned  Analysis suggest that  while  "what c a u s e s a p o l i c y " , p o l i c y i m p a c t  with  "what a p o l i c y c a u s e s " (1975,  t h i s case study, p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s forecasts  of  a b o v e ) on  program  Two forecast  i m p a c t s of  the  respective  of i m p a c t s .  Procedural  administrative  external  to the  p r o g r a m , and  target"  (Cook and  objectives  are  p. 95).  may  efficiently  o r may  not  be  number o f  a given  are  the are  objectives statements  used t o i n d i c a t e  a s p e c t of a program selected  are  objectives.  used:  users;  (2) number o f basis;  c a b i n s open t o t h e  (3) number o f  c o m p l a i n t s about c a b i n 11  i n t e r n a l to  DPOR p o l i c y  in achieving  cabin  are  the  policy.  F i v e p e r f o r m a n c e measurement c r i t e r i a (1) The  described  Outcome o b j e c t i v e s  The  P e r f o r m a n c e measurement c r i t e r i a  scenario  (as  a "specific socio-physical  t a k e n f r o m AK  program o p e r a t i n g  e f f e c t i v e l y and  develop  w i l l be a d d r e s s e d i n  i n nature.  S c i o l i , 1975  used f o r t h i s study are f r o m PUC  i s used to  In  objectives.  are  and  analysis  p.95-96).  policies  types of program o b j e c t i v e s  a g e n c y and  policy analysis i s  p u b l i c on  a rental  condition;  how  (4)  number o f s t a f f  (5)  amount o f f u n d s a v a i l a b l e and d e v e l o p m e n t .  By f o r e c a s t i n g , or  maintenance hours per c a b i n ; f o r program  operations  f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e number o f c a b i n  users  t h e number o f s t a f f m a i n t e n a n c e h o u r s p e r c a b i n , i t w i l l  be  p o s s i b l e t o d e f i n e t h e i m p a c t s o f a g i v e n p o l i c y on p r o g r a m objectives. discredit debate.  1.3  be n e c e s s a r y t o s u b s t a n t i a t e o r  the p o l i c y arguments Having s u b s t a n t i a t e d  arguments, the  Next, i t w i l l  i twill  or d i s c r e d i t e d  described  policy  AND  about  process.  RESULTS OF ANALYSIS  The o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h i s sequence  the three  policy  t h e n be p o s s i b l e t o make a c o n c l u s i o n  optimum revenue r e c o v e r y ORGANIZATION  made i n t h e s t r u c t u r e d  thesis generally  i n t h e p r e v i o u s pages.  f o l l o w s the  C h a p t e r Two p r o v i d e s an  o v e r v i e w o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m , r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y  constraints,  p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , and t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m statement. Chapter Three i s t h e f i r s t development of a n a l y s i s scope o f a n a l y s i s structuring  o f two c h a p t e r s f o c u s i n g on t h e  techniques f o r the case study.  The  i s d e f i n e d , and t h e p r o c e d u r e f o r p r o b l e m  methods ( i . e . ,  classification  analysis,  assumptional analysis) i s reviewed. C h a p t e r F o u r d e s c r i b e s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f an a n a l y s i s framework  f o r the sub-issues c o n t r i b u t i n g to the o v e r a l l  policy  p r o b l e m , and r e v i e w s l i t e r a t u r e c o n s i d e r e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n  12  the  study.  policy  Also  d e t a i l e d i s the  d e b a t e and  developing  Chapter Five returns  procedure of  The  to the  substantive and  p r o c e d u r e s , and  program o p e r a t i o n s  policy  to uncover t h e i r  policy issues  assumptional  implementation process,  i n order  are  revenue  respective  f a c t o r s and  f o r each and  number one).  causal  identified  f o r each p o l i c y ( s u b s i d i a r y question  p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y  Also,  are  number  two).  a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i s a p p l i e d to the p o l i c y makers  p r o p o s i n g the (supports  two  program  p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s : the r e c e i p t s ) and  the  (proposed concession  operations).  of each p o l i c y a c t o r  are  These i s s u e s a r e Chapter Six. uncertainty  superintendent  and  the  The  and  operations.  f o r each p o l i c y .  and  r e b u t t a l s are  the  identified:  the  without  i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s  B a s e d on  these issues,  optimum revenue recovery  l a t t e r two  issues  are  These f o r e c a s t s are 13  from  a tentative  claim  policy.  translated into scenarios  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , f o r a f o r e c a s t o f i m p a c t s on  operations.  the  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y ,  revenue recovery,  i s made f o r an  premises  used to a r t i c u l a t e  t h e i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s f r o m o p e r a t i o n s  concession  basic  framed i n a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate i n  Three i s s u e s of  park  agency d i r e c t o r  From t h i s ,  identified,  unanswered i s s u e s of c o n t e n t i o n  policy  analysis  strengths  associated  with  recovery  described  weaknesses ( i n answer to s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n  An  '  a p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s .  the a p p l i c a t i o n of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n techniques.  structuring a  of  program  d e v e l o p e d to a d d r e s s the  final  three  subsidiary  questions  i n this  thesis.  These f o r e c a s t s  will  s u b s t a n t i a t e o r d i s c r e d i t t h e p r e v i o u s l y made r e c o m m e n d a t i o n for  an o p t i m u m p o l i c y .  conclusion provide  That i s , i t would r e t u r n  of the previously  f o ri t s evaluation.  defined  tothe  p o l i c y a r g u m e n t and  In doing so, i t w i l l  means t o a n s w e r i n g t h e p r o b l e m  provide the  statement.  C h a p t e r Seven i s a summary o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s c a s e study.  Methodological  and a n a l y t i c a l  conclusions  t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t and s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s , further  i s s u e s o r i n s i g h t s r a i s e d by t h i s  are offered to  along  with  analysis.  1.4 D E F I N I T I O N OF TERMS The  reader w i l l  basis throughout t h i s for  e n c o u n t e r t h e f o l l o w i n g t e r m s on a r e g u l a r study.  the terms a r e given  The d e f i n i t i o n  and/or  abbreviation  below.  A l a s k a D i v i s i o n o f P a r k s and O u t d o o r - a D i v i s i o n o f t h e Alaska Department of N a t u r a l Resources; r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the o p e r a t i o n o f t h e A l a s k a p u b l i c use c a b i n program; r e f e r r e d t o a s " t h e D i v i s i o n " o r " t h e agency." U s e r f e e - i n t h i s c a s e , a c h a r g e l e v i e d by a u n i t o f s t a t e government t o the p u b l i c f o rthe p r o v i s i o n of a s p e c i a l s e r v i c e by t h a t a g e n c y . P r o g r a m r e c e i p t s a c c o u n t - an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e m e c h a n i s m u s e d by s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t i n A l a s k a t o a c c o u n t f o r , and a l l o c a t e p r o g r a m u s e r f e e r e v e n u e s back t o t h e a g e n c y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h a t program. C o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n - c o n t r a c t m a i n t e n a n c e and o p e r a t i o n o f a p u b l i c f a c i l i t y by a p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l o r c o r p o r a t i o n ; t h e o p e r a t o r w o u l d be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e r e c o v e r y o f u s e r f e e s , and t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h o s e f e e s t o f a c i l i t y m a i n t e n a n c e and d e v e l o p m e n t . 14  P e r f o r m a n c e measurement c r i t e r i a i n d i c a t i o r s of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s or e f f i c i e n c y of a given aspect of a program i n a c h i e v i n g program o b j e c t i v e s . P o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n - t h e o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f a body o f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e g o a l s , o b j e c t i v e s , and p r o c e d u r a l g u i d e l i n e s , i n c l u d i n g any p r o g r a m a c t i v i t i e s o r p r e p a r a t i o n s n e c e s s a r y t o a c h i e v e a d e s i r e d outcome. Policy implementation variables - variables i n t e r n a l to t h e p r o c e s s o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , "can be o r have been a m e n a b l e t o p o l i c y c o n t r o l " by p o l i c y m a k e r s ( C o l e m a n , 1975, p . 2 4 ) . P o l i c y outcome - the r e s u l t s of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y from the i n t e r a c t i o n between p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n v a r i a b l e s and p o l i c y e n v i r o n m e n t v a r i a b l e s . P o l i c y e n v i r o n m e n t - human and non-human s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s that are e x t e r n a l to the i n f l u e n c e of p o l i c y makers (Coleman, 1975, p.24). P r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s - i n c l u d e p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s and program outcome o b j e c t i v e s ; the former emphasizes a d m i n i s t r a t i v e aspects of p o l i c y implementation, the l a t t e r emphasizes a t a r g e t o r g o a l e x t e r n a l to the program. P r o g r a m a c t i v i t i e s - t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a program d e l i v e r y system.  15  CHAPTER 2 CASE STUDY OVERVIEW 2.1  INTRODUCTION This chapter  reviews  t h e h i s t o r y o f PUC p r o g r a m  d e v e l o p m e n t , management c o n s t r a i n t s c r i t i c a l  to the d e f i n i t i o n  o f t h e t h e s i s p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t , and p r e v i o u s  legislative  initiatives  i n question.  f o r the revenue recovery  policies  P a r t s o f t h e t e x t i n s e c t i o n 2.2 arec a d a p t e d w i t h m o d i f i c a t i o n f r o m t h e P u b l i c Use C a b i n P r o g r a m Management P l a n R e v i e w D r a f t , w r i t t e n by t h i s a u t h o r  Public  i n 1985.  2.2 RECREATION CABIN PROGRAMS IN ALASKA Today i n A l a s k a cabins,  limited  Peninsula,  there are roughly  230 p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l  r e g i o n a l l y to Southeast Alaska,  Prince  W i l l i a m Sound, and t h e K o d i a k  A l l b u t one o f t h e s y s t e m s o f c a b i n s a r e o p e r a t e d of the United the A l a s k a Forest  States  National Forests, cabins  189 c a b i n s  The p r i m a r y  Wildlife  operators  t h e US F i s h and W i l d l i f e  agencies  Service with  R e f u g e , t h e AK DPOR w i t h  3 cabins. 16  a r e t h e US  14  R e f u g e and K e n a i  B u r e a u o f Land Management w i t h 3 c a b i n s , Park S e r v i c e w i t h  by  i n t h e T o n g a s s and Chugach  at the Kodiak N a t i o n a l W i l d l i f e  National  archipelago.  f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ; t h e one e x c e p t i o n i s  S t a t e Park System.  Service with  the Kenai  11 c a b i n s , t h e US  and t h e US N a t i o n a l  Recreational cabins  are almost e x c l u s i v e l y l o c a t e d o f fthe  A l a s k a S t a t e Highway System, w i t h access f o o t , boat,  or plane.  Forest  occupancy ( i n c l u d i n g l a t e 100  percent  f o r those  Chugach N a t i o n a l  Service surveys  cabins  accessed system  by f o o t .  Forest  was f o r t y p e r c e n t ,  eighty  percent  I n 1983, t h e  had 18,680 v i s i t o r  i n t h e Chugach  days o f  National  w i t h a number o f c a b i n s  and A g e n c y  Surveys of p u b l i c opinion  exceeding  Response indicate a continuing  the expansion of p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n cabin  of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s ' p r e f e r e n c e lands  runs at n e a r l y  occupancy.  2.2.1 P r o g r a m Demand  Federal  summer  day i s one 12 h o u r p e r i o d o f o c c u p a n c y ) .  Average annual occupancy per c a b i n  for  a f f o r d e d by  show t h a t  s p r i n g and e a r l y f a l l )  Forest cabin  occupancy (a v i s i t o r  to cabins  i n Alaska  those p o l l e d favored  demand  systems.  A  study  f o r r e c r e a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s on  determined  that s i x t y - f o u r percent of  the development of p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n  cabins. A demand a s s e s s m e n t by t h e USFS d e t e r m i n e d t h a t o v e r t h e n e x t decade a p p r o x i m a t e l y in  40 a d d i t i o n a l c a b i n s  t h e Chugach N a t i o n a l F o r e s t  in population cutbacks 20 c a b i n s  to s a t i s f y  and r e c r e a t i o n demand.  w o u l d be needed  projected  increases  Y e t , because o f budget  t h e USFS r e d u c e d i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n g o a l o f 40 c a b i n s t o i n the next  ten years.  17  T h e r e i s a l s o a l a r g e demand f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s on  s t a t e managed l a n d s .  the  In a statewide  A l a s k a Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n P l a n  survey  undertaken f o r  (AK DPOR, 1981,  p.39), t h e  number one p r e f e r e n c e f o r s t a t e p r o v i s i o n o f new t y p e s o f recreation  The  o p p o r t u n i t i e s was p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s .  AK DPOR, a s t h e s t a t e a g e n c y m a n d a t e d t o p r o v i d e f o r  p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n n e e d s on s t a t e l a n d s , h a s r e s p o n d e d t o t h i s demand w i t h t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o r r e h a b i l i t a t i o n c a b i n s , and has c o n t i n u e d a t t e m p t s development c o n s t r a i n t s . these c o n s t r a i n t s , designed 2.2.2  t o overcome major program  This case  study  i s concerned  Facility  them. Development  B e t w e e n 1984 and 1986 t h e AK DPOR d e v e l o p e d systems f o r p u b l i c use c a b i n s systems,  considered  with  and t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e p o l i c i e s  t o overcome  State  o f 13 p u b l i c u s e  four p i l o t  (PUC) a r o u n d t h e s t a t e .  These  t o be t h e p r o t o t y p e o f a much l a r g e r  program, a r e comprised  o f two t o f o u r c a b i n s each.  are c o n s i d e r e d as e x p e r i m e n t a l  prototypes  The s y s t e m s  because t h e o p e r a t i o n  o f s u c h a p r o g r a m i s a w h o l l y new e n d e a v o r f o r t h e DPOR.  The 1985  was c o n v e r t e d  Recreation was fund  f i r s t s y s t e m o f c a b i n s b r o u g h t on l i n e i n 1984 a n d  Area  f r o m l e a s e c a b i n s i n t h e Nancy L a k e S t a t e  (NLSRA).  In those  d i v e r t e d from C e n t r a l O f f i c e the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n  years,  approximately  and A r e a O f f i c e  accounts t o  o f t h e c a b i n s (AK DPOR, 1 9 8 6 c ) .  18  $5000  As we  s h a l l s e e , t h i s was t o f u l f i l l a r e q u e s t f r o m t h e G o v e r n o r t o i n i t i a t e program  development  Legislation  without a f i s c a l  establishing  S t a t e P a r k i n 1984  included  t h e 22,000 a c r e S h u y a k  funding  o p e r a t i o n o f a s y s t e m o f PUCs. w e r e b u i l t on t h i s i s l a n d , t h e s e c o n d and n e w e s t  appropriation. Island  f o r the development  I n 1985 and 1986,  w i t h these f a c i l i t i e s  and  f o u r new  PUCs  representing  s y s t e m o f c a b i n s o p e r a t e d by t h e a g e n c y .  The t h i r d s y s t e m i s made up o f t h r e e c a b i n s l o c a t e d i n t h e Chena R i v e r  S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area near F a i r b a n k s .  The  f o u r t h and s m a l l e s t s y s t e m a r e two c a b i n s o p e r a t e d u n d e r c o o p e r a t i v e management a g r e e m e n t  f r o m t h e USFS i n S o u t h e a s t  Alaska. 2.2.3  S t a t e Program  Development  C o n c e p t u a l s u p p o r t f o r a PUC d o c u m e n t e d as f a r b a c k as t h e l a t e d i d n o t come u n t i l a p p r o p r i a t i o n was planning  1970s; l e g i s l a t i v e s u p p o r t  I n t h e 1984  attached  by t h e D i v i s i o n i s  session, a  later  "red-lined"  by t h e G o v e r n o r .  small  t o t h e DPOR budget t o u n d e r t a k e  f o r , and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a p i l o t  T h i s f u n d i n g was budget  1984.  program  s y s t e m o f PUCs.  (vetoed) out of the  Division  The o p i n i o n o f t h e G o v e r n o r was  that  t h e a g e n c y had a d e q u a t e f u n d s t o d e v e l o p t h e p r o g r a m " i n house" w i t h o u t a s p e c i a l  legislative  The d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e p r o g r a m achieved  without  the continued  appropriation. c o u l d n o t have been  s u p p o r t of the agency  director.  The PUC p r o g r a m was e n v i s i o n e d t o be a m a j o r c o m p o n e n t o f a new  19  breed o f r e c r e a t i o n p r o g r a m s f o r t h e agency. w o u l d be d e s i g n e d  to recover  use f e e s  These programs  f o r operations,  a g e n c y d e p e n d e n c y on s t a t e s u b s i d i e s f o r p r o g r a m  lessening  maintenance.  In t h e summer o f 1984, t h e d e c i s i o n was made t o u n d e r t a k e research  f o r t h e p l a n n i n g , d e v e l o p m e n t and o p e r a t i o n  program.  The p l a n n i n g  process  was an o p p o r t u n i t y  of the  to i d e n t i f y  management c o n s t r a i n t s , c o s t s , and s t r a t e g i e s , b e f o r e any c o s t l y mistakes  w e r e made.  The p r o g r a m p l a n was a l s o  to address the concerns of f i e l d  personnel  designed  r e l u c t a n t t o t a k e on  new management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . This author researching  was a s s i g n e d  the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of  and w r i t i n g t h e " c a b i n p l a n " , w h i c h was  f o r m a l i z e d a s p r o g r a m p o l i c y and p r o c e d u r e .  Other r e l a t e d  assignments included the d r a f t i n g of l e g i s l a t i o n revenue recovery coordination  the author  w i t h i n the Department of N a t u r a l  site  meetings  f e d e r a l a g e n c y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , and  f o u r major components.  program goals  support f o r  included extensive  members o f b o t h t h e p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s . has  Further,  unit.  Research f o r the cabin plan with d i v i s i o n personnel,  Resources (the  s e l e c t i o n a t Shuyak  and c o o r d i n a t i o n o f l o g i s t i c  construction i n that  program  w i t h i n the Department).  was i n v o l v e d i n c a b i n  I s l a n d S t a t e Park, cabin  to e s t a b l i s h  f o r t h e p r o g r a m , and i n t e r - d i v i s i o n  DPOR i s one o f s e v e n d i v i s i o n s  later  The f i r s t  The PUC p l a n  component i s a s e t o f  that compliment the o v e r a l l p o l i c y goals of the  20  agency.  In a l a t e r chapter  of this analysis,  these goals are  used as a b a s e l i n e f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e recovery  policies.  The and  revenue  s e c o n d and t h i r d c o m p o n e n t s o f t h e p l a n a r e p o l i c i e s  procedures  f o r s i t e planning, f a c i l i t y  program o p e r a t i o n s .  m a i n t e n a n c e , and  The f o u r t h component i s c o s t e s t i m a t e s o f  c a p i t a l and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r t h e p h a s e d d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e program. 2.3 REVENUE RECOVERY CONSTRAINTS Although issues, f i e l d  o f t e n d i v i d e d o v e r management and o p e r a t i o n s staff  and f r o n t o f f i c e  come t o a g r e e m e n t on t h e p r i m a r y development: Field  the i n a b i l i t y  personnel  o b s t a c l e f o r PUC p r o g r a m  t o r e c o v e r program  revenues.  managers were h e s i t a n t t o a c c e p t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r  the o p e r a t i o n o f a program, and a t t e n d a n t guarantee  were q u i c k t o  o f an a n n u a l  appropriation.  p o s i t i o n , t h e agency d i r e c t o r  c o s t s , without the  Sympathetic  to this  was a l s o o f t h e o p i n i o n t h a t t h e  days o f l a r g e s t a t e o p e r a t i n g budgets were d r a w i n g  to a close.  T h e r e f o r e , i t w a s f e l t t h a t new o p e r a t i o n s s u c h a s t h e PUC program should  have t h e a b i l i t y  t o capture revenues from use  f e e s f o r m a i n t e n a n c e and d e v e l o p m e n t p u r p o s e s . will  be r e f e r r e d  t o i n t h i s a n a l y s i s as revenue  This  recovery.  P r e s e n t l y t h e r e i s a model o f revenue r e c o v e r y recreation  cabins operated  authorizes the recovery  i n Alaska.  concept  f o rpublic  The G r a n g e r - T h y e A c t  of c a b i n use fees s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r the  21  m a i n t e n a n c e and Service.  A l l r e v e n u e s f r o m c a b i n use  separately  of l e g i s l a t i v e  involved in this  Forest  accounted  S e r v i c e and  s t a t e park  That  to the F o r e s t S e r v i c e ,  a p p r o p r i a t i o n , and  process.  recovery p r a c t i c e s are a d m i n i s t e r e d  Similar  revenue  by t h e US N a t i o n a l  systems throughout  a l l the  Park  the c o n t i n e n t a l  States. Unfortunately,  constrained Alaska  fees are  automatically allocated  the p r o c e s s  uncertainties  United  by t h e US  from o t h e r F o r e s t S e r v i c e revenue sources.  amount i s t h e n bypassing  development of f a c i l i t i e s  i n t h i s case  t h e DPOR i s c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l y  from r e c o v e r i n g revenues f o r program  Statute  (AS)  41.21.030  operations.  states:  A l l m o n i e s r e c e i v e d f r o m t h e o p e r a t i o n o f p a r k and r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g money f r o m c o n c e s s i o n s , r e n t a l s , o r d o n a t i o n s , s h a l l be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund of the s t a t e . T h e r e f o r e , w h i l e t h e a g e n c y can for  t h e PUC  for  the r e c o v e r y  and  does c h a r g e a use  p r o g r a m , i t must c o m p e t e w i t h a l l o t h e r of those  funds,  July  1,  1987.  agencies  via legislative appropriation.  A second c o n s t r a i n t to revenue r e c o v e r y w i l l effective  House B i l l  696,  "An  Act  become  R e l a t i n g to  F i n a n c i a l A d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f G o v e r n m e n t " (known i n f o r m a l l y the "Procurement B i l l " ) , a fee i s  would "sunset" a l l programs f o r  the  as which  charged:  S e c t i o n 1 ( a ) : A s t a t e a g e n c y may n o t c h a r g e f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n of s t a t e s e r v i c e s u n l e s s the charge i s a u t h o r i z e d by s t a t u t e .  22  fee  For  the D i v i s i o n , t h i s  would p r o h i b i t  the c o l l e c t i o n of  f e e s f o r c a b i n u s e p e r m i t s , s p o r t f i s h i n g g u i d e p e r m i t s , and commercial o u t f i t t e r  permits.  For the cabin program,  there are  t w o p o l i c y o p t i o n s t h a t m i g h t be a d o p t e d t o o v e r c o m e t h e s e revenue recovery  constraints.  The a n a l y s i s o f t h e t h e s e t w o  a l t e r n a t i v e s i s the subject of t h i s  case study.  2.4 REVENUE RECOVERY ALTERNATIVES The  first  revenue recovery a l t e r n a t i v e , q u i t e s i m i l a r  Forest Service procedure, i s referred account, or i n short,  program  receipts.  method o f revenue r e c o v e r y would operatio.n of t h e c a b i n s . the  concessionaire,  operator.  The s e c o n d  receipts alternative  be t h r o u g h c o n c e s s i o n  Program  revenues would  be r e c o v e r e d by  and an p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e g r o s s r e v e n u e  w o u l d be r e g u l a r l y d e p o s i t e d the  t o as a p r o g r a m  to the  i n a s p e c i a l m a i n t e n a n c e f u n d by  This arrangement  would c i r c u m v e n t t h e mandated  d e p o s i t o f r e v e n u e s i n t h e G e n e r a l Fund, and t h e o r e t i c a l l y g u a r a n t e e t h a t adequate funds were a v a i l a b l e  f o r program  o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t . 2.4.1  Legislative In  r e s p o n s e t o t h e c o n s t r a i n t s p o s e d by HB 696, t h e D i v i s i o n  has p r o p o s e d t h a t to  Initiatives  the l e g i s l a t u r e  t h e g o v e r n o r i n t r o d u c e an o m n i b u s " f e e b i l l " i n t h e 1987 s e s s i o n .  would s t a t u t o r i a l l y a u t h o r i z e  I f passed, t h i s  the d i v i s i o n  t o c o l l e c t and  r e c o v e r f e e s f o r a number o f e c o n o m i c p r o g r a m s , c a b i n program.  including the  The l a n g u a g e f r o m t h e p r o p o s e d f e e b i l l  23  bill  illustrates  how r e v e n u e w o u l d be r e c o v e r e d  program r e c e i p t s .  Section  1(c) of the b i l l  using a system of reads:  F e e s c o l l e c t e d u n d e r t h i s s u b s e c t i o n s h a l l be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund. The c o m m i s s i o n e r o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a l l s e p e r a t e l y a c c o u n t f o r f e e s c o l l e c t e d and d e p o s i t e d by t h e c o m m i s s i o n e r u n d e r t h i s s u b s e c t i o n . The a n n u a l e s t i m a t e d b a l a n c e i n t h e a c c o u n t may [ i t a l i c s m i n e ] be a p p r o p r i a t e d by t h e l e g i s l a t u r e t o t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f Natural Resources to c a r r y out the purposes of t h i s section. (AK DPOR, 1986e) The  formal  intent of t h i s proposal  legislative oversight and in  i s to provide  f o r the a l l o c a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s ,  to a u t o m a t i c a l l y include a request the annual budget p r o p o s a l .  f o r PUC p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s  The i n f o r m a l i n t e n t i s t o  encourage almost automatic  a p p r o p r i a t i o n o f p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s by  establishing a legislative  p r e c e d e n c t o f an a n n u a l  appropriation. probability  Such a p r e c e d e n t would g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e t h e  t h a t the program  Two b i l l s  designed  would  to recover  program r e c e i p t s were i n t r o d u c e d of R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s legislature.  be r e g u l a r l y f u n d e d . PUC p r o g r a m r e v e n u e  through  by members o f t h e A l a s k a  House  and S e n a t e i n t h e 1986 s e s s i o n o f t h e  The b i l l s  enjoyed u n i v e r s a l support  u n t i l the  P r e s i d e n t o f t h e S e n a t e added an amendment t h a t w o u l d  give  t i t l e and o w n e r s h i p o f a one a c r e p a r c e l o f s t a t e l a n d t o any person The  who had b u i l t  modified  strong outcry original  bill  an u n a u t h o r i z e d  s t r u c t u r e on t h a t  was u l t i m a t e l y v e t o e d  from environmental  by t h e g o v e r n o r a f t e r a  advocacy groups and t h e  sponsors of the l e g i s l a t i o n .  24  land.  2.4.2 C o n c e s s i o n s Recognizing  Proposal the h i s t o r y of f a i l e d  legislative  i n A u g u s t o f 1986 t h e A r e a S u p e r i n t e n d e n t Nancy L a k e S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n o p e r a t i o n of the cabins in  detail  r e s p o n s i b l e f o rthe  Area proposed t o develop  i n that u n i t ( t h i s process  i s described  with  agency  t o r e c e i v e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n f o r program  receipts.  In e f f e c t ,  contingency policy  concession  i n s e c t i o n 5.4). T h i s d e v e l o p m e n t was p r o p o s e d t o  t a k e p l a c e i n t h e w i n t e r o f 1987, c o n c u r r e n t attempts  proposals,  concession  o p e r a t i o n w o u l d become a  s t r a t e g y i n the case t h a t the program r e c e i p t s  was n o t a u t h o r i z e d by t h e l e g i s l a t u r e . In t h e i n t e r v e n i n g p e r i o d s i n c e t h i s a u t h o r  concluded  c o l l e c t i o n f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s , i t has become u n c e r t a i n or not the superintendent proposal.  intends  data  whether  to carry out h i s o r i g i n a l  Yet t h i s p r o p o s a l , unique i n i t s departure  from t h e  chosen agency p o l i c y o f program r e c e i p t s , i l l u s t r a t e s  an i s s u e  as o l d as t h e PUC p r o g r a m i t s e l f . discussed received The  This issue,  although  i n f o r m a l l y and a r g u e d among a g e n c y s t a f f , formal  a n a l y s i s by t h e a g e n c y .  essence of the revenue recovery  a question,  has n e v e r  i s s u e , s u m m a r i z e d as  forms the problem statement f o r t h i s  thesis:  Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s t h e most e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m ?  25  In  the next  c h a p t e r , t h i s q u e s t i o n and  subsidiary questions w i l l the techniques  accompanying  be d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l , a l o n g  t h a t m i g h t be a p p l i e d f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f  issue.  26  with this  CHAPTER 3 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROBLEM STRUCTURING TECHNIQUES 3.1  INTRODUCTION The  p r i m a r y purpose  o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o r e v i e w and  d e v e l o p methods o f i d e n t i f y i n g issues characteristic  and s t r u c t u r i n g  t o t h i s case study.  the p o l i c y  This w i l l  foundation f o r a l a t e r evaluation of a l t e r n a t i v e recovery p o l i c i e s .  from methods o f problem  addressed  i n Chapter  significance  Three  revenue  Because methods o f e v a l u a t i o n a r e d i s t i n c t l y  different  Chapter  structuring,  they w i l l  of  be  Four. b e g i n s w i t h an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e  of the problem  statement,  and an a r t i c u l a t i o n o f  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s and o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e a n a l y s i s . scope  provide the  of the a n a l y s i s  i s defined.  t e r m i n o l o g y and c o n c e p t s  This includes  that w i l l  be u s e d  Next, t h e  the d e f i n i t i o n  throughout  this  thesis. The selection,  t h i r d major  component o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t h e r e v i e w ,  and d e v e l o p m e n t o f p r o b l e m  These m e t h o d s a r e u s e d  t o suggest  p o s s i b l e causes of p o l i c y  problems,  structuring  methods.  t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and from  the perspective of  b o t h t h i s a n a l y s t and a g e n c y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n v o l v e d i n  27  policy  development.  This approach w i l l  comprehensive d e f i n i t i o n 3.1.1 P r o b l e m In  of the i s s u e s unique t o t h i s  we saw t h a t a c o m b i n a t i o n  identification  to these c o n s t r a i n t s ,  l e d to the  o f a l o n g - s t a n d i n g q u e s t i o n as t o t h e  e f f e c t i v e n e s s of each approach. this  of  c o n s t r a i n t s on t h e PUC p r o g r a m , and t h e p r o p o s e d  p o l i c y responses  for  case.  Statement S i g n i f i c a n c e  the previous chapter,  statutorial  help ensure a  thesis,  the question  Framed a s t h e p r o b l e m  statement  asks:  Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s t h e most e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m ? To t h e k n o w l e d g e o f t h i s a u t h o r , t h e AK DPOR has n e v e r f o r m a l l y undertaken  the a n a l y s i s of t h i s p o l i c y  t h e s i s p r o v i d e s the o p p o r t u n i t y t o address important  question.  This  an i s s u e w i t h  i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e f u t u r e o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m .  Moreover, t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l  provide answers t o p o l i c y  q u e s t i o n s t h a t t h e agency w i l l  not otherwise  have t h e t i m e o r  manpower t o a d d r e s s . Given  t h i s author's  lengthy involvement  with the  d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m , t h i s a n a l y s i s a l s o p r o v i d e s a new p e r s p e c t i v e on an o l d p o l i c y  issue.  The new p e r s p e c t i v e ,  made f r o m o u t s i d e o f t h e a g e n c y , e n c o u r a g e s a more  critical  l o o k a t a g e n c y o p e r a t i o n s , and t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f a w i d e r of techniques,  than i f t h e a n a l y s i s were c a r r i e d  28  range  out w i t h i n the  agency.  Further,  i n providing  range o f techniques,  f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n o f a wide  this analysis w i l l  allow  f o r the  d e v e l o p m e n t o f a f r a m e w o r k t h a t c a n be a p p l i e d t o s i m i l a r c a s e s in  the future. P o l i c y a n a l y s i s by t h e D i v i s i o n i s f o r m a l i z e d  under the  framework of t h e D i v i s i o n Order, o r the department-wide Decision  Memoranda.  The e l e m e n t s o f t h e s e p o l i c y m a k i n g  i n s t r u m e n t s i n c l u d e a statement of i s s u e , background, p o l i c y options,  and r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s .  The p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t d r a f t e d f o r  t h i s t h e s i s c l o s e l y resembles t h e s t y l e taken i n the statement o f i s s u e s f o r d e c i s i o n memos.  The f o l l o w i n g a r e e x a m p l e s o f  s t a t e m e n t s o f i s s u e t a k e n f r o m a g e n c y d e c i s i o n memos: What i s t h e most e f f e c t i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e f o r the D i v i s i o n o f P a r k s and Outdoor Recreation? W h i c h D i v i s i o n o r D i v i s i o n s s h o u l d be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r o p e r a t i n g p u b l i c u s e c a b i n s a d m i n i s t e r e d by t h e Department of N a t u r a l Resources? The issue  a p p r o a c h o f t h e s e s t a t e m e n t s , and t h e s t a t e m e n t o f  for this  t h e s i s , i s normative; that i s , the approach  "attempts t o answer the q u e s t i o n 1981,  p.37).  Translated  to ensure continued  o f what s h o u l d  t o t h i s c a s e s t u d y , what s h o u l d  program o p e r a t i o n  I have s u g g e s t e d t h a t r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y program o p e r a t i o n  and d e v e l o p m e n t ?  (Dunn, be done  Although  i s a requisite to  and d e v e l o p m e n t , t h i s has n o t y e t been  c o n c l u s i v e l y demonstrated. considered  be done"  a subsidiary  This  i s s u e , among o t h e r s , i s  issue of the l a r g e r p o l i c y issue.  29  The  means o f i d e n t i f y i n g of the 3.1.2  and  addressing  s u c h s u b - i s s u e s i s by  way  subsidiary question. Subsidiary In  order  Questions  to determine  revenue r e c o v e r y ,  a number o f a c c o m p a n y i n g s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s  must a l s o be a n s w e r e d . memo, t h e s e q u e s t i o n s Similarly,  I n t h e c o n t e x t o f an a g e n c y d e c i s i o n w o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d as d i s c r e t e i s s u e s .  this analysis will  as s u b s i d i a r i e s In  t h e most e f f e c t i v e p o l i c y f o r  develop  to the o v e r a l l  such d i s c r e t e  problem  the development of t h i s case  statement. study, the s u b s i d i a r y  q u e s t i o n s have p l a y e d a number o f r o l e s . questions might suggest statement,  or  of the answer to the problem used to f a c i l i t a t e  objectives The  f o r an first  d e s c r i p t i o n of  two  answers to  and  these  problem  t h e c o n s i s t e n c y and  statement.  the r e v i e w  m e t h o d s o f a n a l y s i s , and  The  the o v e r a l l answer to the  be u s e d as a c h e c k on  questions  logic  F u r t h e r , they can  s e l e c t i o n of  be  appropriate  as a b a s i s f o r t h e d e f i n i t i o n  of  analysis. s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s aim  t h e two  policies.  They  at p r o v i d i n g a  read:  What a r e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s and w e a k n e s s e s o f e a c h p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and t h e c a u s e s o f t h e s e characteristics? I f e a c h p o l i c y w e r e i m p l e m e n t e d s e p a r a t e l y , a t what p o i n t i s each most v u l n e r a b l e t o f a i l u r e ?  30  For t h i s a n a l y s i s , t h e s t r e n g t h o f a p o l i c y there i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y successfully  implemented.  there are s i g n i f i c a n t  that the p o l i c y  uncertainty w i l l The  policy  following  c a n be  The w e a k n e s s o f a p o l i c y means t h a t  l e v e l s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y  the s u c c e s s f u l outcome o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . of  means t h a t  be r e f e r r e d  associated with  The a r e a s o r p h a s e s  t o as p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y .  s u b s i d i a r y question concerns  the impacts of  failure: What w o u l d be i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n i f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was n o t s u c c e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t e d ? This question i s designed  to substantiate or d i s c r e d i t  the s u p p o s i t i o n t h a t revenue r e c o v e r y i s a r e q u i s i t e f o r program development.  I t a l s o suggests  the development of a  s c e n a r i o of program o p e r a t i o n s i n the case of p o l i c y and  then a f o r e c a s t of the r e s u l t i n g  failure,  impacts.  As s e e n i n C h a p t e r Two, a m e m b e r o f t h e a g e n c y s t a f f h a s proposed  that the policy  f o r r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y be m o d i f i e d by  d e v e l o p i n g c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s as a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . f o u r t h and f i f t h the impacts  s u b s i d i a r y questions are designed  of the proposed  contingency  to address  policy:  What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e PUC p r o g r a m o f t h e implementation of a concessions policy? What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e a g e n c y o f t h e implementation of a concessions policy?  31  The  Again,  these questions  i n d i c a t e t h e need t o  develop  s c e n a r i o s o f p r o g r a m and a g e n c y o p e r a t i o n s u n d e r t h e policy,  along  impacts  of such  In  w i t h m e t h o d s o f f o r e c a s t i n g and  The  categories.  The  to a r t i c u l a t e  last  solution; the 3.1.3 Six  two  first  three questions  and  they w i l l  are  provide  s t r u c t u r e the problem  q u e s t i o n s are concerned  they p r o v i d e  proposed  the  operations.  w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of the problem; vehicle  assessing  summary, t h e f i v e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c a n  i n t o two  modified  for  be  broken  concerned the analysis.  w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of  the  the v e h i c l e to e v a l u a t e the e f f i c a c y  of  solution.  Objectives o b j e c t i v e s have been d e f i n e d f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f  analysis techniques arranged addressed  for this  thesis.  s e q u e n t i a l l y to r e f l e c t i n the  following  the o r d e r  chapters.  (1) t o make a n o r m a t i v e alternatives;  These o b j e c t i v e s a r e  They  e v a l u a t i o n of  i n which they  are  are: policy  (2) t o e v a l u a t e a r a n g e o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s a p p l i c a t i o n t o t h i s c a s e and s i m i l a r c a s e s ;  for  (3) t o i d e n t i f y t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h p o l i c y , i n c l u d i n g the p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of each alternative; (4) t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s o f p o l i c y makers i n the development of the p o l i c y a n a l y s i s structure; (5) t o d e v e l o p s c e n a r i o s o f p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s u n d e r alternative policies;  32  the  ( 6 ) t o a s s e s s t h e i m p a c t s of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t ; The  fourth  objective,  important i n that  3.2  now  undefined, w i l l  t h e r e a s o n i n g of d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y  provide valuable insights policy  until  into  on  be  makers  the e f f i c a c y o r c o n s t r a i n t s  can of a  alternative.  SCOPE OF The  ANALYSIS  scope of t h i s a n a l y s i s  between d e v e l o p m e n t c o n s t r a i n t s environment,  and  found w i t h i n  the  relationship policy  t h e outcome o f p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .  d e f i n i t i o n of t h e s c o p e • o f Process  f o c u s e s on t h e  Model d e v e l o p e d  this analysis  by  Shanks (1983,  i s based  on a  The Policy  p.12):  POLICY ENVIRONMENT  POLICY FORMATION  Figure  3.1.  POLICY IMPLEMENTATION  =P0LICY' OUTPUT  Policy  As i l l u s t r a t e d  Process  Model  (Shanks  i n F i g u r e 3.1,  1983)  t h e model has  components: p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n , p o l i c y o u t p u t , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , p o l i c y o u t c o m e , and  i n p o l i c y output;  five  major  policy  the p o l i c y environment.  i n t e r a c t i o n between the p o l i c y environment results  : POLICYOUTCOME  and p o l i c y  formation  t h a t o u t p u t i s then i m p l e m e n t e d ,  33  The  with  the i n t e r a c t i o n between the p o l i c y e n v i r o n m e n t  and  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n r e s u l t i n g i n the p o l i c y outcome. 3.2.1  Defining  Implementation  In t h i s c a s e s t u d y , t h e policy  formulation  result  of  this  a g e n c y has recovery  a g e n c y has  i s l a b e l l e d as p o l i c y o u t p u t ) .  p o l i c i e s , a l t h o u g h the before  suggest that the a d o p t i o n of  the  i t can  be  policy will  original  the  two  require  the  revenue further  Therefore,  begun w i t h  I  the  W i l d a v s k y (1973) w o u l d a r g u e o t h e r w i s e ;  been o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d .  Van  the  policy.  a u t h o r i z i n g a p o l i c y , but  t h e p o l i c y has  Further,  operationalized.  suggest that i m p l e m e n t a t i o n should  t h a t my  of  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p r o c e s s has  P r e s s m a n and  follow  completed  stage f o r each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e (the  a d o p t e d f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n one  authorization  already  M e t e r and  yet Van  supposition.  r e f e r to problems  of  p r o b l e m s t h a t occur once a p o l i c y  From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e  a n a l y s i s should not  not  they  been  argument  would  f o c u s on p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n ,  as  authorized.  Horn's d e f i n i t i o n They  the  has  substantiates  my  write:  P o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n e n c o m p a s s e s t h o s e a c t i o n s by p u b l i c or p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s (or groups) that are d i r e c t e d at the a c h i e v e m e n t of o b j e c t i v e s s e t f o r t h i n p r i o r p o l i c y decisions. T h i s i n c l u d e s b o t h one t i m e e f f o r t s t o t r a n s f o r m d e c i s i o n s i n t o o p e r a t i o n a l t e r m s , as w e l l as c o n t i n u i n g e f f o r t s t o a c h i e v e t h e l a r g e and s m a l l d e c i s i o n s m a n d a t e d by p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . (1975, p.447)  34  Therefore, this  study concerns  t h e "one t i m e e f f o r t s [ o f  the D i v i s i o n ] t o t r a n s f o r m d e c i s i o n s [ t o adopt a program receipts policy]  i n t o o p e r a t i o n a l terms."  (Van M e t e r  and Van  Horn, 1975, p.447). Policy  implementation  the program a c t i v i t i e s  f o r t h i s c a s e i s t a k e n t o mean b o t h  necessary  to achieve a desired p o l i c y  o u t c o m e , a l o n g w i t h any n e c e s s a r y p r e p a r a t i o n s . policy implementation control.  policy  are variables that are subject to policy  C o l e m a n has d e f i n e d t h e s e e l e m e n t s  variables.  ( C o l e m a n p.24),  to p o l i c y  3.2.2 P o l i c y The  as p o l i c y  P o l i c y v a r i a b l e s " c a n be o r have been a m e n a b l e t o  control"  internal  The e l e m e n t s o f  and I s u g g e s t  t h a t they a r e  implementation.  Environment  p o l i c y environment  i s comprised  v a r i a b l e s b o t h human and non-human.  of s i t u a t i o n a l  Situational  variables "play  a p a r t i n the c a u s a l s t r u c t u r e which leads t o t h e outcome v a r i a b l e s , and t h u s m u s t be c o n t r o l l e d design, p.24)  i n the a n a l y s i s o r  but a r e not s u b j e c t t o p o l i c y c o n t r o l "  F o r i n s t a n c e , members o f t h e l e g i s l a t u r e ,  ( C o l e m a n , 1975, while playing a  d e t e r m i n i n g r o l e i n t h e outcome o f p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , a r e not d i r e c t l y  involved i n daily  Instead, they a r e e x t e r n a l  operations f o r a policy.  t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , a n d c a n be  c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t o f t h e p o l i c y Similarly,  HB 696, w h i c h  without s t a t u t o r i a l  environment.  would prevent c o l l e c t i o n of fees  a u t h o r i z a t i o n , c a n be c o n s i d e r e d a  35  situational  variable  of the p o l i c y environment.  Of  special  concern to t h i s analysis are the problems that a r i s e out ofthe relationship  between s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s  e n v i r o n m e n t , and t h e o u t c o m e o f p o l i c y problems w i l l  within  the p o l i c y  implementation.  These  be i d e n t i f i e d u s i n g m e t h o d s o f p r o b l e m  structuring. 3.3 STRUCTURING THE PROBLEM Structuring "is  the process  a policy  o f g e n e r a t i n g and t e s t i n g  conceptualizations structuring Error  of a problematic  of the problem w i l l  i s n o t made.  solving  problem, according  alternative  s i t u a t i o n . " Proper  help ensure that  A Type I I I E r r o r  of problem s o l v i n g definition  i s the p r o b a b i l i t y of  has been d e v e l o p e d "  p r o b l e m , and p o t e n t i a l  prefiguring  p l a n n i n g and e x e c u t i o n  methods t h a t  solutions  "formulation  the solution"  ( M i t r o f f and K i l m a n  o f a problem can a l s o  a range o f problem s o l v i n g  Wildavsky,  "Careful  the  to the  In t h e words  [ o f the problem] i s tantamount to (from  to address the f i r s t The r e v i e w t h a t  following  1979b p . 2 7 ) .  help to i d e n t i f y  f o r the problem.  Dery,  1981).  methods, I i d e n t i f i e d two t e c h n i q u e s t h a t  questions.  problem  m i g h t be a p p l i e d  I n my r e v i e w o f l i t e r a t u r e f o r p r o b l e m  applied  the r i g h t  s t e p s a r e i r r e l e v a n t i f t h e wrong  Proper s t r u c t u r i n g  be  a Type I I I  t h e wrong p r o b l e m , o r i n o t h e r words, g e t t i n g  a n s w e r f o r t h e wrong q u e s t i o n .  of  t o Dunn ( 1 9 8 1 ) ,  and s e c o n d  structuring  might  subsidiary  l e d to t h i s choice  section. 36  appropriately  i s summarized i n  3.3.1  Survey The  the  of  Methods  first  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n asks f o r a d e s c r i p t i o n  s t r e n g t h s and  w e a k n e s s e s o f e a c h p o l i c y , and  factors associated  w i t h these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .  i m p l i e s t h e need t o c l a s s i f y p o l i c y identify  possible  causes.  the  of  causal  This question  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and  Classification analysis  and  then  hierarchy  a n a l y s i s a r e t h e two methods I i n t e n d t o use t o s t r u c t u r e t h e policy  problem. Classification  analysis  f o r c l a r i f y i n g c o n c e p t s used situations"  (Dunn,  classification p.23).  There  1981  has been d e f i n e d  t o d e f i n e and c l a s s i f y p r o b l e m a t i c  p.119),  characteristics  approaches  and  and  group  characteristics.  t y p o l o g i e s (Dubnick,  l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n (O'Shaughnessy,  Methods t h a t d i v i d e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  1972,  the  those that aggregate or  those that d i v i d e  Grouping methods i n c l u d e p o l i c y  and  (O'Shaughnessy,  to c l a s s i f y i n g  of p u b l i c p o l i c y :  characteristics,  p.59)  or "the d e f i n i t i o n  of p r o b l e m a t i c s i t u a t i o n s " a r e two  as "a t e c h n i q u e  are l a b e l l e d  1983,  1973,  p.24).  logical  division. A l t h o u g h t h e g r o u p i n g m e t h o d s l e n d t h e m s e l v e s t o needs o f d e s c r i p t i o n and c o m p a r i s o n ,  t h e y do n o t p r o v i d e t h e  for  detailing  For  t h i s r e a s o n t h e m e t h o d s o f " t y p i f y i n g p o l i c i e s " and  classification  the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  framework  will  n o t be a p p l i e d  37  of the p o l i c i e s i n q u e s t i o n .  to t h i s case  study.  logical  L o g i c a l d i v i s i o n i s the reverse  of l o g i c a l  classification;  i t i s a process of s e l e c t i n g a c l a s s of  characteristics  and b r e a k i n g  (Dunn, 1981, p.119). detailing  associated  a means o f  factors.  possible  p.120), w i l l Hierarchy  Hierarchy  provide  analysis  amount o f i n f l u e n c e process o u t l i n e d  analysis,  causes of a problem  "a t e c h n i q u e f o r  s i t u a t i o n " (Dunn,  s u c h a means. i s used t o i d e n t i f y a range o f  causes f o r a problem  s i t u a t i o n , and i d e n t i f y t h e  p o l i c y m a k e r s have o v e r t h e s e c a u s e s .  by O'Shaughnessy (1972,  p.75),  tree.  The c a u s e s a r e t h e n c l a s s i f i e d  amount o f i n f l u e n c e In e s s e n c e , classification  analysis  provides the analyst factor i s located policy  formation  to the analyst factors To will  analysis i s a modified  information  a  according  to the  factors.  form of  aimed a t i d e n t i f y i n g c a u s a l  with  factors.  It  as t o whether a c a u s a l  i n the p o l i c y environment or the process of or implementation.  to conclusively  From t h i s p o i n t ,  develop the problem  the c a t e g o r i e s  structure  version  of  this  analysis. case study, I  of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s  identified 38  i t i s up  i d e n t i f y the e f f e c t s of c a u s a l  t h r o u g h t e c h n i q u e s such as p o l i c y i m p a c t  apply of a hybrid  includes  using  a p o l i c y maker has o v e r t h e c a u s a l  hierarchy  In a  the possible  causes of p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are systematized hierarchy  What i t  i s a means o f l i n k i n g t h e s e v a r i a b l e s t o  causal  identifying  possible  method w o u l d p r o v i d e  parts  t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c v a r i a b l e s o f each p o l i c y .  does n o t p r o v i d e  1981,  This  i t down i n t o c o m p o n e n t  f o r hierarchy  analysis.  that This  modified analysis s t r e n g t h s and  will  a s s i s t the  weaknesses of  t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and vis  i n t e r n a l or One  external  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of  each p o l i c y , p o s s i b l e locate  the  to p o l i c y  s o u r c e of  the  causes  the  of  cause v i s  a  implementation.  possible  c r i t i q u e of  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n analysis  it  would f o r e c l o s e  alternative  c a u s a l e x p l a n a t i o n s of a p r o b l e m  in  the  p r o c e s s of  m i g h t be  possible  classification effect the  of  3.3.2  i f one  to  The  factor  on  policy  first  within  policy  program  amount o f  is  be  to  critique  the  classify  characteristic.  s o u r c e of  the  the  Instead  causal factor  in  Procedure  c o m p o n e n t s and  Because the  phases of  the  is  to  characteristics  characteristics  program, the  analysis  of  occur  will  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , revenue recovery procedures,  focus and  operations.  The  can  of  step i n a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s  alternative.  discrete  objective  that  characteristic.  c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y i d e n t i f y the each p o l i c y  Such a  i s not  a policy  i s to c l a s s i f y the the  factors.  objective  C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Analysis The  on  causal  c o n f u s e s the  process.  a causal  objective  relation  categorizing  is  next s t e p i s to c l a s s i f y each phase a c c o r d i n g influence  determined  i n t e r n a l or  implementation.  p o l i c y m a k e r s have o v e r i t . i f the  external  potential to  the  Causal factors  situational variables,  or  will  be  39  problem  policy  c l a s s i f i e d either  policy variables,  the  From t h i s i t  source of a p o l i c y  p r o c e s s of  to  following  as  Coleman's  definition  of v a r i a b l e s ( s i t u a t i o n a l  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and  thus o u t s i d e  of  maker w h i l e p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s a r e therefore  subject  v a r i a b l e s are  the  c o n t r o l of  external the  i n t e r n a l to implementation  i t was  noted that both the  proposed revenue recovery  consecutively  source of  failed.  The  situational variables.  or c e r t a i n t y that  This  i s that a given  also leads  policy will  a n a l y s i s would f a c i l i t a t e and This  the  issue.  of  the  perspectives the  agency c h o i c e  to the  question  be i m p l e m e n t e d .  a l s o be  this  of a s s o c i a t e d explored  by  be  how  PUC  of  external certain  Classification uncertainty  causal  factors.  assessing  the  i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y makers i n v o l v e d i n  this  definition the  field  of  will  of  were  "agency  A s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i s a t e c h n i q u e t h a t can  articulate  for  the  that  suggests a lack  e x p l o r a t i o n of  identification  issue could  perspectives  the  saw  i m p l e m e n t e d , perhaps because of v a r i a b l e s  to the p o l i c y .  issue,  we  proposed a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y to This  were  that i s , they  i n C h a p t e r Two,  f o r revenue recovery.  successfully  it  Also  policy  these f a i l u r e s  e x t e r n a l to the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ;  confidence  and  previous  i n i t i a t i v e s s i m i l a r to the  choice"  policy  t o p o l i c y maker c o n t r o l ) .  I n C h a p t e r Two  p e r s o n n e l had  to  be  used  o f a p o l i c y p r o b l e m by e x a m i n i n g  p o l i c y maker's i n v o l v e d  program.  40  in policy  to  the  formation  3.3.3  Assumptional Analysis  Procedure  D i f f e r e n t p o l i c y makers h o l d d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s p r e m i s e s i n r e g a r d s t o p o l i c y p r o b l e m s and s o l u t i o n s ; defined  t h e s e p r e m i s e s as t h e r e s u l t o f t h e  r e l a t i o n s h i p " of a p o l i c y  actor.  assumptions  about  policy  Hok  problems"  has  "value/policy  Assumptional analysis  technique that aims at the...synthesis of  and  "is a  conflicting  (Dunn, 1981,  p.121).  Dunn c a l l s t h e m e t h o d s o f a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s t h e "most comprehensive  problem  s t r u c t u r i n g process."  Mitroff,  and K i l m a n , t h e o r i g i n a t o r s o f t h i s p r o c e s s , have assumptional  analysis  as a d i a l e c t i c a l  Emshoff,  labelled  p r o c e s s (1979a,  p.584).  That i s , a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s a t t e m p t s t o " s y s t e m a t i c a l l y explicitly  c o n s i d e r d i v e r g e n t v i e w s [and a s s u m p t i o n s ] about  nature of problems Therefore, t h i s  and  solutions"  technique would  (Dunn,  fulfill  1981,  development of the problem  problems",  analyst to  who  conduct  this  makers i n the  structure.  Assumptional analysis groups of p o l i c y  the  p.121).  the o b j e c t i v e of  a n a l y s i s to i n c o r p o r a t e the premises of p o l i c y  policy  and  t e c h n i q u e s can be a p p l i e d  s t a k e h o l d e r s who  " by  participate in structuring  o r as i n t h i s c a s e , "by t h e  individual  s i m u l a t e s the assumptions of s t a k e h o l d e r s i n order a reasoned  debate  with  himself"  (Dunn, 1981,  p.121).  Because t h i s case s t u d y i s aimed a t the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a s s u m p t i o n s , and sequenced  not t h e i r  s y n t h e s i s , o n l y two  steps of assumptional a n a l y s i s w i l l  stakeholder i d e n t i f i c a t i o n  and a s s u m p t i o n 41  of the s i x be u s e d :  surfacing.  The  first  step  i n the p r o c e s s  Stakeholders and  are  w o u l d be  "any  to i d e n t i f y  [ i n d i v i d u a l or] party  i s a f f e c t e d by an o r g a n i z a t i o n and  1979a, p.586).  Our  policy  analysis w i l l  stakeholders.  that  both a f f e c t s  i t s policies"  focus  on  agency  (Mitroff  stakeholders;  t h a t i s , the p o l i c y makers w i t h i n the agency i m p l e m e n t i n g program our case study stakeholders  play  i s concerned with.  a role  i n the  outcome of  e l e c t e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , t h e p u b l i c ) but policy  formation  i n c l u d e these The  or adoption.  policy  players  second step,  A number o f  do  Therefore, i n the  case  identification  the  other  the  policy  not  play a part  i t i s not  (e.g., in  u s e f u l to  study.  of t h e  stakeholders  a s s u m p t i o n s , or "assumption s u r f a c i n g " , "works backwards from recommended support  s o l u t i o n . . . t o the  selective  t h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n and  t h a t . . . a l l o w one of the data" The  (Dunn, 1 9 8 1 ,  "selective  analysis w i l l analysis.  t o deduce the  stakeholders  b a s e d on  the u n d e r l y i n g  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s as a c o n s e q u e n c e  the  r e s u l t s of  assumptions w i l l their  reader  classification  be s i m u l a t e d  actual preferences The  assumptional  the  f o r agency  o f one  must r e c o g n i z e  the s i m u l a t i o n of a s s u m p t i o n s i s s u b j e c t i v e , a s s i g n m e n t s can  that  p.122).  from  a l t e r n a t i v e over another.  data  assumptions  s e t s of d a t a " used i n the  be t a k e n  Underlying  s e t s of  a  42  that  logical  be made b a s e d on e x p l i c i t p r e m i s e s o f  stakeholders.  policy  the  while  The  a s s u m p t i o n s and  positions  of p o l i c y s t a k e h o l d e r s  will  s u g g e s t t h e b a s i c e s s e n c e o f t h e p o l i c y i s s u e o r p r o b l e m we structuring.  T h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s may  conjecture that  a l a c k of  agency c o n t r o l  p h a s e s i s t h e b a s i c i s s u e , and the  p o l i c y problem  3.4  SUMMARY Section  3.1  the  subsidiary  and  the  that  similar  the  can  f o r the  cases i n the  future.  approach to the  The  evaluation  revenues f o r  subsidiary  s u g g e s t the  to the  Of  of  this  problem  the  selected  statement,  policy  takes a  the The  to  normative  alternative p o l i c i e s for  PUC  to  case study, or  revenue  optimum p o l i c y f o r  the  program.  questions developed for t h i s  each p o l i c y .  analysis,  major s i g n i f i c a n c e  This thesis  of  need t o d e f i n e  weaknesses of  evident.  significance  r e c o v e r y , a t t e m p t i n g to d e t e r m i n e the r e c o v e r y of  not  development of a framework of applied  policy  suggest o t h e r e l e m e n t s of  analysis.  be  the  over c r i t i c a l  q u e s t i o n s t h a t accompany t h e  t h i s t h e s i s i s the that  i t may  were p r e v i o u s l y  describes  objectives  analysis  support or r e f u t e  are  analysis  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c strengths questions also  and  suggest the  need  to develop s c e n a r i o s of program i m p l e m e n t a t i o n under each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and these  t h e n an  assessment of  the  impacts  operations. The  problem  translated objectives,  s t a t e m e n t and  into five objectives along  with  the  subsidiary for  subsidiary  43  questions  this thesis.  are  Those  q u e s t i o n s , form  the  of  benchmark a g a i n s t w h i c h a l l methods o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s reviewed  are  for selection.  The s c o p e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s  i s defined  to include  the  r e l a t i o n s h i p of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n t o the surrounding environment. the  policy  policy.  Situational variables,  environment, are external  In c o n t r a s t ,  which are located to the i n f l u e n c e  policy variables  analysis  are the r e l a t i o n s h i p  variables recovery  Of s p e c i a l  program  subsidiary the  f o r revenue  receipts).  questions of t h i s analysis.  factors,  application  policies,  possible  o f t h e above m e n t i o n e d p r o b l e m s t r u c t u r i n g issues  for this  methods case  be g a i n e d .  provide a foundation f o r the evaluation  alternatives,  Chapter  techniques  of p o l i c y  i t cannot i d e n t i f y a p p r o p r i a t e c r i t e r i a  methods t o t h a t in  concern  From t h e  While the i n f o r m a t i o n developed w i t h these will  two  These q u e s t i o n s  and p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y .  a thorough understanding of the p o l i c y would  and  w o u l d be u s e d t o a n s w e r t h e f i r s t  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the a l t e r n a t i v e  causal  they  and i m p a c t s o f s i t u a t i o n a l  M o d i f i e d v e r s i o n s of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s assumptional analysis  of  concern to t h i s  on t h e o u t c o m e o f t h e a g e n c y p o l i c y (i.e.,  within  are i n t e r n a l to  implementation; along with s i t u a t i o n a l variables, d e t e r m i n e the outcome of a p o l i c y .  policy  end.  S u c h m e t h o d s and c r i t e r i a  Four.  44  will  or be r e v i e w e d  CHAPTER 4 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT  OF  POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 4.1  INTRODUCTION This chapter r e v i e w s the development of the procedures  chosen t o a n a l y z e the i s s u e s  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t o t h i s case  These p r o c e d u r e s w e r e c h o s e n b e c a u s e o f t h e i r a b i l i t y the  f i n d i n g s of the previously  methods ( i . e . , and  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n analysis,  provide answers to the f i n a l The  of  described problem  first  section  the o b j e c t i v e s  impact a n a l y s i s , scenario building The  assumptional  discussion  of p o l i c y  and t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f a framework f o r and i m p a c t  analysis.  s e c o n d and t h i r d s e c t i o n s  f o r use i n t h i s case study:  discuss  the methods chosen  Dunn's m o d e l o f a  structured  p o l i c y d e b a t e , and Cook and S c i o l i ' s m o d e l o f p o l i c y analysis.  analysis),  questions.  of t h i s chapter provides a the function  t o frame  structuring  three subsidiary  f o r the a n a l y s i s ,  study.  These s e c t i o n s  d e t a i l the a p p l i c a t i o n  impact  of these  m e t h o d s t o t h i s c a s e s t u d y , and p r o v i d e e x a m p l e s o f how t h e information  from the case w i l l  45  be f o r m a t t e d .  4.2 DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK In Chapter  T h r e e i t was p r o p o s e d t h a t two m e t h o d s o f  problem s t r u c t u r i n g questions.  The r e s u l t s o f t h e s e  the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n factors,  be a p p l i e d t o t h e f i r s t  of p o l i c y  two s u b s i d i a r y  methods, I suggested,  characteristics,  w o u l d be  associated causal  and p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y .  As o f y e t u n a d d r e s s e d a r e t h e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s concerning  the f o r e c a s t s of d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y  scenarios concern revenue recovery, The  methodological  scenarios.  These  program o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t a method o f and o p e r a t i o n s u n d e r t h e c o n t i n g e n c y requirements  of these  are u n d e r l i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g statement  policy.  subsidiary questions of a n a l y s i s  obj e c t i v e s : To d e v e l o p s c e n a r i o s o f p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s u n d e r t h e alternative policies; To a s s e s s t h e i m p a c t s o f t h e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t . Scenario building  i s one o f a number o f t e c h n i q u e s  as s u b j e c t i v e f o r e c a s t i n g . Other t e c h n i q u e s  known  include the Delphi  M e t h o d , b r a i n s t o r m i n g , a n d c r o s s - i m p a c t m a t r i c e s (Hogswood 1984,  p.135).  Scenarios  a r e " h y p o t h e t i c a l sequences of  events  c o n s t r u c t e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f f o c u s i n g a t t e n t i o n on c a u s a l processes  and d e c i s i o n p o i n t s " (Hogswood  1984, p.138).  S c e n a r i o s c a n be u s e d t o a n s w e r t w o q u e s t i o n s : (1) How m i g h t a s i t u a t i o n  46  come a b o u t , s t e p by s t e p ?  (2) What a l t e r n a t i v e s e x i s t , f o r e a c h [ p o l i c y ] a c t o r , f o r preventing, averting, or f a c i l i t a t i n g the [ p o l i c y ] process? (Hogswood f r o m E n c e l , e t a l . 1 9 7 5 , p . 8 6 ) . Hogswood i d e n t i f i e s t w o l i m i t a t i o n s w i t h building:  that  relationship ensuring  an a s s u m p t i o n m i g h t be made f o r a c a u s a l  that  that  scenario  does n o t e x i s t , and t h a t  a l l major p o s s i b i l i t i e s  t h e r e i s no way o f  a r e i d e n t i f i e d (1984,  p.139). In t h i s c a s e s t u d y , description  will  o f program o p e r a t i o n s under each  alternative. forecasts  scenario building  From t h e s c e n a r i o s o f p r o g r a m  of the effectiveness  alternative  will  allow f o r the  policy operations,  and e f f i c i e n c y o f e a c h  t h e n be made u s i n g p o l i c y  impact  policy  analysis  techniques. While p o l i c y  analysis  i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h "what c a u s e s a  policy", policy  impact analysis  policy  (Cook  causes"  i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h "what a  and S c i o l i ,  1975, p.95-96).  In  o t h e r words, t h i s process i s concerned w i t h measuring the impacts of a given p o l i c y  on o v e r a l l p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s .  t h i s process i s r e l a t i v e l y straightforward, impact analysis  was q u i c k l y  Since  a model of p o l i c y  chosen from the l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w .  In t h i s and t h e p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r ,  we have  reviewed  m e t h o d s o f c l a s s i f y i n g p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p r o b l e m s , defining impacts.  policy  scenarios,  What i s l a c k i n g  for addressing  and t h e f o r e c a s t i n g  i s a f r a m e w o r k t h a t p r o v i d e a means  a l l the c r i t i c a l  assumptions of t h i s case.  of p o l i c y  issues  and c r i t i c a l  T h i s f r a m e w o r k s h o u l d p r o v i d e a means 47  for  a r t i c u l a t i n g previously i m p l i c i t reasoning, while allowing  for  c h e c k s on t h e c o n s i s t e n c y and  logic  of t h i s  framework should a l l o w f o r the development  reasoning.  of c r i t i q u e s or  r e b u t t a l s to questionable premises or assumptions, introducing Finally,  the d i v e r g e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s of p o l i c y  the framework s h o u l d compliment  taken i n t h i s case  to adapt  specifications.  actors.  the normative  analysis  t e c h n i q u e s t o t h e above  These t e c h n i q u e s i n c l u d e d c a u s a l m o d e l l i n g , assessment,  and o b j e c t i v e s  These t e c h n i q u e s were u l t i m a t e l y r e j e c t e d because  questions.  means o f a d d r e s s i n g t h e r e m a i n i n g  The  technique f i n a l l y  chosen  4.3  and  subsidiary  to f u l f i l l  framework o b j e c t i v e s i s the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y  mapping.  they d i d not  t h e above r e q u i r e m e n t s , o r p r o v i d e a l o g i c a l  comprehensive  approach  of the case study, the author  four p o l i c y  t h e o r y mapping, f e a s i b i l i t y  fulfill  perhaps  study.  During the development attempted  The  the  debate.  STRUCTURED POLICY DEBATE Dunn s u g g e s t s t h a t  by u s i n g t e c h n i q u e s o f s t r u c t u r i n g  p o l i c y d e b a t e , an a n a l y s t c a n "employ p r o b l e m t h a t a r e open t o c h a l l e n g e s , a r e s e l f d i r e c t e d toward justification  favored policy  Dunn's m o d e l o f a p o l i c y elements. policy  These e l e m e n t s  analyst  critical,  the r e s o l u t i o n of a problem,  of  from  solving  rather  alternatives"  debate  and  are arranged s e q u e n t i a l l y  48  methods  are than  the  ( 1 9 8 1 , p.43).  i s structured  a p i e c e of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t  a  with  seven  to lead  information"  the  t h r o u g h a number o f ( p r e m i s e s ) and forms the  s u b - i s s u e s c o m p r i s e d of p o l i c y  rebuttals  c o n c l u s i o n of  to p o l i c y the  policy  three reasons for  t e c h n i q u e to the  case study.  would  incorporation  facilitate  providing  the  of  can  policy  claim  t h e n be  tested  analysis. application  First,  a framework f o r the  a r g u m e n t s f o r and  The  a r g u m e n t , and  w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e methods of I offer  claims.  warrants  of  a structured  the  basic  evaluation  a g a i n s t each p o l i c y  of  this policy  policy  debate  issue(s),  substantive  alternative.  In  this  f r a m e w o r k , a s s u m p t i o n s o r p r e m i s e s c o u l d be d e f i n e d a b o u t effect  of  a certain  variable  the  concessions p o l i c y ,  the  methods of p o l i c y Second, the  for  the to  evaluation  of  on  policy  a specific policy Third,  approach of analysis  this  policy  then t e s t e d  of  (i.e.,  using  these techniques allow  divergent positions  of  assumptional analysis, maker p r e m i s e s and  the  for  rebuttals  the  policy  i t provides  a p o l i c y debate f o r the  strategies thesis.  i s consistent  for  in regard  justification.  49  normative  discussion  from a problem  than from the  evaluation  w i t h the  I t a l l o w s f o r the  of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s  perspective, rather  and  a policy  approach.  structuring  problem s o l v i n g  the  the  outcome of  analysis.  application  Building  the  instance),  impact  c o n t i n u e d development of players.  on  the  and  solving  one-sided perspective  of  of  4.3.1 D e b a t e This  Elements  section i n i t i a l l y details  the substantive  elements  o f a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y d e b a t e , and t h e n c l o s e s w i t h a description  of the graphic  presentation.  c i t e d , the quotes seen i n t h i s (1981,  p.41).  A graphic  debate i s found to t h i s  discussed  presentation  of the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y  I t may  help  the reader  information  the elements of the p o l i c y debate are  that  information": a c i r c u m s t a n t i a l piece of  has h e l p e d  Policy relevant information methods...[and] i n c l u d e s  p r e c i p i t a t e a p o l i c y debate  p o l i c y problems, a l t e r n a t i v e s ,  o u t c o m e s , and p o l i c y p e r f o r m a n c e . " F o r t h i s c a s e will  information  will  study  c o n c e r n t h e amount o f  agency c o n t r o l over phases of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .  This  be t a k e n f r o m t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i n  Five.  The n e x t e l e m e n t i s t h e p o l i c y c l a i m .  of  issue.  i s " p r o d u c e d by m u l t i p l e  the p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n  the  to refer  p o i n t of the p o l i c y debate i s the d e f i n i t i o n  of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t  Chapter  Dunn  below.  The s t a r t i n g  actions,  otherwise  s e c t i o n are taken from  i n s e c t i o n 6.1.  figure while  Unless  "conclusion  o f a p o l i c y argument; the l o g i c a l  policy relevant  will  take  this  thesis.  supporting  A policy claim i s  information."  In t h i s c a s e ,  consequence  the p o l i c y c l a i m  t h e f o r m o f an a n s w e r t o t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t o f This  a n s w e r c a n be o n l y a s c o n c l u s i v e  warrants are l o g i c a l ,  50  valid  and  reliable.  as t h e  The w a r r a n t i n a p o l i c y d e b a t e i s t h e " a s s u m p t i o n p o l i c y a r g u m e n t w h i c h p e r m i t s t h e a n a l y s t t o move f r o m relevant  information to a policy  claim."  in a policy  In t h i s c a s e , t h e  w a r r a n t a l l o w s f o r t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f s c e n a r i o s and p r e m i s e s that  support the c l a i m  the second  warrant  f o r a contingency policy.  will  For instance,  read:  [ S i n c e ] The l a c k o f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y m e c h a n i s m w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p a c t t h e PUC p r o g r a m . [ N o t e : The w o r d s i n c e i s p a r t o f t h e s u g g e s t e d f o r m a t . Read t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e b a c k i n g , r e b u t t a l s , and q u a l i f i e r s , i t would form a sentence t h a t c o n c l u d e s w i t h t h e policy claim.] At f i r s t g l a n c e such a statement  may seem b i a s e d ; i t must  be r e m e m b e r e d t h a t t h i s s h o u l d be t a k e n a s b o t h a s c e n a r i o a n d a premise,  t h a t an e q u a l l y b i a s e d y e t c o n t r a s t i n g r e b u t t a l  be made t o t h i s s t a t e m e n t ,  and m o s t i m p o r t a n t , t a k i n g a  position  to testing  impact  i s a prerequisite  w i t h methods o f p o l i c y  analysis. Supporting every  warrant  backing "consists of a d d i t i o n a l may be u s e d value. step  will  and r e b u t t a l assumptions  i s a backing. or arguments  t o go one  b a c k w a r d and s t a t e u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s . " An  example o f a backing statement warrant  that  t o s u p p o r t w a r r a n t s w h i c h a r e n o t a c c e p t e d on f r e e  The b a c k i n g f o r w a r r a n t s a l l o w s t h e a n a l y s t  further  The  f o r the previously defined  reads:  [Because] C r i t i c a l achieved.  program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l  51  n o t be  The  program o b j e c t i v e s  from p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s (1) To i n c r e a s e (2)  to provide  (3) t o p r o v i d e  used f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e taken  f o r t h e PUC p r o g r a m .  They a r e :  and e n h a n c e r e c r e a t i o n a l f o r public support  opportunties;  safety;  to the state's  tourism  industry;  (4) t o m a i n t a i n an a p p r o p r i a t e s t a n d a r d o f s e r v i c e c o s t - e f f e c t i v e management m e t h o d s ;  using  (5) t o r e t u r n c a b i n r e n t a l r e v e n u e t o t h e p r o g r a m maintenance of the cabins; A conceptual discussion section  4.4.1.  objectives The rebuttal  of program o b j e c t i v e s  The r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e c h o i c e  i s discussed  i n section  i s seen i n  o f t h e above  6.2.1.  next p o l i c y debate element i s the r e b u t t a l . i s a second c o n c l u s i o n ,  states the conditions  qualifications.  u n d e r w h i c h an o r i g i n a l  Taken t o g e t h e r ,  policy claims  t h e s u b s t a n c e o f p o l i c y issues...and  means f o r c r i t i c i z i n g arguments." previously  one's own c l a i m s ,  For i n s t a n c e , might  "A  a s s u m p t i o n , o r argument  that  claim i s  u n a c c e p t a b l e , o r u n d e r w h i c h i t may be a c c e p t e d o n l y  form  f o rthe  with  and r e b u t t a l s  s e r v e as a  systematic  a s s u m p t i o n s , and  a r e b u t t a l to the warrant  stated  read:  L a c k i n g a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y m e c h a n i s m , t h e PUC p r o g r a m w i l l n o t be s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p a c t e d . " The  backing f o r t h i s  would  read:  [ B e c a u s e ] S i g n i f i c a n t p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s w o u l d be achieved."  52  The  next p o l i c y  debate  element  q u a l i f i e r e x p r e s s e s t h e degree about  a policy claim.  completely certain  of p r o b a b i l i t y . that  the d e f i n i t i o n of p o l i c y  F i g u r e 6.1, s e c t i o n  analysis).  Policy relevant  On t h e l o w e r h a l f  rebuttals  q u a l i f i e r s are often When t h e a n a l y s t  t r e e w i l l be d r a w n up  information claim  and b a c k i n g s a r e g r o u p e d  developed  rebuttals  i n t h e upper policy  by i s s u e .  model o f p o l i c y  case study would  warrants,  Scioli are  chosen  (1975,  of warrants This w i l l  impact a n a l y s i s  proposed  for this  The m o d e l o f p o l i c y  f o r t h i s c a s e s t u d y was d e v e l o p e d  p.96 - 1 0 5 ) . The m a j o r  measurement c r i t e r i a .  have  to develop a framework f o r  measure t h e i m p a c t s o f a g i v e n p o l i c y  program a c t i v i t i e s ,  of arrows  ELEMENTS  on o v e r a l l p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s . analysis  hand  scenarios.  4.4 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS The  right  A series  t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n of the debate.  d e f i n i t i o n of policy  for this  i s p l a c e d i n t h e upper  of the chart,  t h e n met t h e n e e d o f t h i s a n a l y s i s the  - no  debate elements, a c h a r t  i s used t o g u i d e t h e r e a d e r t h r o u g h t h e sequence and  is  i s , when c o n c l u s i o n s a r e  6.1, f o r t h e d e b a t e  hand c o r n e r , and t h e p o l i c y  corner.  i s certain  i n n a t u r e and c o n t a i n no e r r o r  s i m i l a r t o a PERT c h a r t o r a d e c i s i o n  left  "A  i s necessary."  After  (see  the analyst  analysis,  about a c l a i m ,  wholly deterministic qualifier  to which  In p o l i c y  expressed i n the language  i s the q u a l i f i e r .  53  impact  impact  by Cook and  components o f t h i s model  program o b j e c t i v e s , Policy  scenario  and p e r f o r m a n c e  analysis  tests the e f f i c a c y  of program a c t i v i t i e s  in achieving  program o b j e c t i v e s  a p p l i c a t i o n p e r f o r m a n c e measurement c r i t e r i a . program a c t i v i t i e s scenarios, 4.4.1  the  defined  definition  Program  Procedural policy The  procedural objectives  s u c h as  can  outcome  p e r f o r m a n c e and  that  i n the  are  classification  are  external  on  socio-physical  described s u c h as  the  p r o g r a m " (Cook and  be  based  the  target  Scioli,  within  1975,  p.95).  will  goals  i n the  PUC  increasing  program p l a n .  the  recreation  This  would i n c l u d e  recreational opportunities,  season of r e c r e a t i o n a l use,  and  the  outcome  t r a n s l a t e d from  on  program  w a r r a n t s d e v e l o p e d f o r the debate, the be  a  cost-efficiency.  to program o p e r a t i o n s  [operations]  a specific  a s p e c t s of  analysis.  "...the i m p a c t s o f  e n v i r o n m e n t of  objectives.  developed w i l l  They f o c u s on  objectives  subjective.  two  emphasize the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e  objectives  reviewed  and  activities.  policy  the  on  be d i v i d e d down i n t o  objectives  Outcome o b j e c t i v e s  the  based  impacts i s necessarily  administrative  procedural  information  of  Because  the  Objectives  Program o b j e c t i v e s categories:  f o r t h i s case are  with  In  goals  extending  the  and  protecting  natural  and  cultural  and  outcome o b j e c t i v e s  are  directly  resources. Procedural related. consistent  The  objectives  a t t a i n m e n t of p r o c e d u r a l  with  objectives  should  the a t t a i n m e n t of outcome o b j e c t i v e s ;  54  be  c o n v e r s e l y the f a i l u r e result  4.4.2  i n the f a i l u r e  Program  to achieve procedural o b j e c t i v e s of a c h i e v i n g program outcome  objectives.  Activities  Program a c t i v i t i e s are those a d m i n i s t r a t i v e organizational  and  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a program d e l i v e r y  Program a c t i v i t i e s government,  will  are the "output of p o l i c y " ,  as d e s c r i b e d  by Dye  system.  or a c t i v i t y  ( 1 9 7 2 , p.291).  In t h i s  of  case,  s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue r e c o v e r y , and w i t h r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y t h r o u g h c o n c e s s i o n s , be d e v e l o p e d .  These s c e n a r i o s w i l l  be b a s e d on t h e o p e r a t i o n a l  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the program i d e n t i f i e d o v e r v i e w i n C h a p t e r Two, Chapter 4.4.3  will  i n the case study  and t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i n  Three.  Performance  Measurement  Criteria  The f u n c t i o n o f p e r f o r m a n c e m e a s u r e m e n t c r i t e r i a i s t o i n d i c a t e whether or not program a c t i v i t i e s are a c h i e v i n g outcome o b j e c t i v e s . criteria  Examples of performance measurement  might i n c l u d e  the numbers o f u s e r s o f the c a b i n s ,  the  number o f c o m p l a i n t s about t h e c o n d i t i o n of a c a b i n , o r t h e number o f s t a f f such c r i t e r i a reliability,  hours spent i n the maintenance of a c a b i n .  t o be u s e f u l , t h e y must meet t e s t s o f objectivity,  these t e s t s w i l l  and  standardization.  validity,  I f necessary,  be i n t r o d u c e d as t h e c r i t e r i o n i s  o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d along w i t h the p o l i c y  55  impact  For  analysis.  4.5  SUMMARY In  the  Chapter Three,  we r e v i e w e d m e t h o d s o f c h a r a c t e r i z i n g  s t r e n g t h s , weaknesses  alternative, for later questions. that w i l l  the  application  t o the f i r s t  be u s e d  framework  to address the f i n a l  f o r the development  of p o l i c y  impacts.  piece of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t p o l i c y sub-arguments a recommendation  This technique contains  f o r an o p t i m u m  be a p p l i e d  seven  neutral  i n the  c a n be c o n s i d e r e d as a  recovery policy.  In o r d e r t o  S c i o l i ' s model of p o l i c y  impact  t o s c e n a r i o s b a s e d on t h e p r e m i s e s .  o b j e c t i v e s , program  impact  activities,  and  performance measurement c r i t e r i a .  Performance  criteria  w e l l a given aspect of a  program  a r e u s e d t o f o r e c a s t how  a c t i v i t y might a c h i e v e program  forecasts, i tw i l l p o l i c y on p r o g r a m  form  policy.  The e l e m e n t s c o m p r i s i n g t h e m o d e l o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s are program  as  t h r o u g h a number o f  to a conclusion  sub-arguments  f o r or a g a i n s t a revenue  analysis w i l l  the reader from a  information",  t h e s e p r e m i s e s , Cook and  chosen  of s c e n a r i o s f o r the  and r e b u t t a l s ,  Each o f t h e p o l i c y  test  three subsidiary  thesis.  elements that are arranged to lead  premise  subsidiary  t e c h n i q u e o f s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y d e b a t e was  forecasting  of  two  policy  C h a p t e r F o u r has p r o v i d e d a r e v i e w o f t h e t e c h n i q u e s  questions of t h i s The  and v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s o f e a c h  measurement  objectives.  From  these  be p o s s i b l e t o d e f i n e t h e i m p a c t s o f a g i v e n objectives.  56  From t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e i m p a c t a n a l y s i s , i t w i l l possible  to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t each of the  scenarios it  will  introduced  i n the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y  be  policy  debate.  Finally,  be p o s s i b l e t o a d d r e s s t h e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s  concerning  the i m p a c t s of the d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s ,  a conclusion  about  the problem  57  statement.  and come t o  CHAPTER 5 ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RECOVERY POLICY ISSUES 5.1  INTRODUCTION Chapter Five  represents the return  from the m e t h o d o l o g i c a l d i s c u s s i o n to  the p o l i c y  issue  a t hand.  describe policy issues questions of t h i s case.  the f i r s t  two  subsidiary  These q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n t h e alternative,  associated  and p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r e a c h  i s used i n the f i r s t  alternatives.  weaknesses o f both p o l i c i e s w i l l  two major  hoped t o s u g g e s t a p o s s i b l e  will  of the  Characteristic  strengths  be i d e n t i f i e d , and t h e  amount o f a g e n c y i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e c a u s a l f a c t o r s w i t h these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  causal  policy.  (5.3 and 5.4) t o p r o v i d e an i n - d e p t h r e v i e w  workings of both p o l i c y and  i n the p r e v i o u s two c h a p t e r s  by a d d r e s s i n g  Classification analysis sections  study  The p u r p o s e o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y factors,  of t h i s case  be i d e n t i f i e d .  relationship  between  associated  From t h i s i t i s agency  i n v o l v e m e n t and p o l i c y v u l n e r a b i l i t y . The  r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n analysis  f o u n d a t i o n f o r an a n a l y s i s agency p o l i c y  will  form t h e  o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n s and p r e m i s e s o f  makers r e g a r d i n g  assumptional analysis  will  revenue recovery.  The  be u s e d a s a c h e c k o n t h e r e s u l t s o f  58  t h e p r e v i o u s m e t h o d s , and t o a r t i c u l a t e t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f policy  issues. The r e s u l t s o f t h e s e a n a l y s e s w i l l n o t be a n a n s w e r t o  what t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i s . they w i l l  suggest  revenue recovery. issues  necessary  alternatives  Instead  what c o n s t r a i n t s must be o v e r c o m e t o e f f e c t In e f f e c t , t h i s chapter w i l l t o make a n o r m a t i v e  i n the f o l l o w i n g  define  evaluation  the  of p o l i c y  chapter.  5.2 APPLYING C L A S S I F I C A T I O N ANALYSIS TO CASE STUDY In C h a p t e r classification  T h r e e we r e v i e w e d  analysis  l i t e r a t u r e on t e c h n i q u e s o f  f o r problem  structuring.  In the f i r s t  h a l f o f t h i s c h a p t e r we w i l l a p p l y t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s t o t h e c a s e study. The f i r s t o b j e c t i v e  of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  a n a l y s i s as i t  a p p l i e s to t h i s case i s to i d e n t i f y the elements of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n w h i c h a r e s i g n i f i c a n t t o the achievement included  of o v e r a l l program o b j e c t i v e s .  The  elements  i n t h i s a n a l y s i s are i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , revenue recovery  procedures,  and p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n .  The s e c o n d  objective  i s to c l a s s i f y  a c c o r d i n g t o t h e amount o f i n f l u e n c e  these  elements  t h e agency has o v e r  s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s and p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t i n g t h e outcome t h e outcome of a p o l i c y . include  This c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  will  a m e a s u r e m e n t o f t h e amount o f i n f l u e n c e o r c o n t r o l t h e  a g e n c y has i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e o u t c o m e o f t h e p o l i c y .  59  This leads to the t h i r d  o b j e c t i v e , which i s the  d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e phases o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a t which t h e r e i s the  g r e a t e s t u n c e r t a i n t y o f outcome.  I n Chapter Three  i t was  p r o p o s e d t h a t u n c e r t a i n t y o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n may be one o f t h e basic  policy  analysis  issues  will  involved  check t h i s  i n t h i s case.  The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  s u p p o s i t i o n , and p r o v i d e f o r t h e  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the causal factors associated  with  uncertainty. The  following  two s e c t i o n s  (5.2 and 5.3) r e v i e w t h e  phases o f p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o r each a l t e r n a t i v e ; 5.4 i d e n t i f i e s  section  the s i g n i f i c a n c e of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phases,  u n c e r t a i n outcomes,  and makes a c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e p o l i c y  alternatives. 5.3 5.3.1  PROGRAM RECEIPTS Revenue R e c o v e r y The  Procedures  language from t h e proposed f e e b i l l  i l l u s t r a t e s how  r e v e n u e w o u l d be r e c o v e r e d u s i n g a s y s t e m o f p r o g r a m Section  1(c) o f t h e f e e b i l l  receipts.  reads:  F e e s c o l l e c t e d u n d e r t h i s s u b s e c t i o n s h a l l be d e p o s i t e d i n t h e g e n e r a l f u n d . The c o m m i s s i o n e r o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a l l s e p a r a t e l y a c c o u n t f o r f e e s c o l l e c t e d and d e p o s i t e d by t h e c o m m i s s i o n e r u n d e r t h i s s u b s e c t i o n . The a n n u a l e s t i m a t e d b a l a n c e i n t h e a c c o u n t may be a p p r o p r i a t e d by the L e g i s l a t u r e t o t h e Department o f N a t u r a l Resources t o c a r r y o u t t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s e c t i o n (AK DPOR, 1986e). The  technical  a s p e c t s o f i n s t i t u t i n g program  w o u l d be t h e d e v e l o p m e n t  receipts  o f an a c c o u n t i n g p r o c e d u r e b e t w e e n t h e  60  Department Following  o f A d m i n s t r a t i o n and t h e D i v i s i o n o f P a r k s . the quote from S e c t i o n  1(c) of the f e e b i l l ,  r e v e n u e s w o u l d be s e p a r a t e l y a c c o u n t e d f o r , d e p o s i t e d  program i n the  g e n e r a l f u n d , and t h a t amount w o u l d be r e q u e s t e d and a p p r o p r i a t e d t o t h e agency fiscal are  year.  f o r program  operations i n the next  Once t h e f u n d s a r e a p p r o p r i a t e d t o t h e a g e n c y  d i s b u r s e d f o r program  they  operations  5.3.2 I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P r o c e s s On A u g u s t 20, 1986, t h e D i r e c t o r o f t h e D i v i s i o n  of Parks  f o r w a r d e d a memo t o h i s s u p e r i o r ( t h e C o m m i s s i o n e r o f t h e Department  of N a t u r a l Resources) proposing that the Governor  i n t r o d u c e an o m n i b u s b i l l f e e s and e s t a b l i s h p r o g r a m p i e c e of l e g i s l a t i o n  will  to the L e g i s l a t u r e receipts  to charge user  f o r s e l e c t e d programs.  be r e f e r r e d  This  t o h e r e as t h e " f e e  bill." The p r o p o s e d l e g i s l a t i o n a l l o w the D i v i s i o n program.  included a provision that  would  t o r e c e i v e and spend r e v e n u e s f o r t h e PUC  Without such s t a t u t o r y a u t h o r i t y ,  a l l program  revenues  w o u l d go i n t o t h e G e n e r a l Fund o f t h e S t a t e , and e x p e n d i t u r e s w o u l d be l i m i t e d Fund.  t o annual a p p r o p r i a t i o n s from the G e n e r a l  Proposing t h i s  statutory  change i s t h e f i r s t  step i n the  process of i m p l e m e n t i n g a p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y — "initiation  of implementation."  Although the program the  agency,  through four  the  receipts policy  i t c a n n o t be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d stages i n the l e g i s l a t i v e 61  has been a d o p t e d by  until  process,  i t passes including:  (1)  inclusion  i n the Governor's l e g i s l a t i v e  introduction  i n the  legislature;  legislature;  (4) and  approval  requests;  (3) p a s s a g e by  ( r a t h e r than  (2)  the  veto)  by  the  Governor. For t h i s case, the f o u r step process as t h e l e g i s l a t i v e implementation. policy  can The  a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase of  Once t h e s e  be  considered  policy  four steps are accomplished,  be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d , and first  will  revenue r e c o v e r y  step of implementation  the  can  begin.  i s the a p p r o v a l of  the  l e g i s l a t i v e p r o p o s a l by t h e C o m m i s s i o n e r o f t h e D e p a r t m e n t Natural  R e s o u r c e s (DNR), a member o f t h e G o v e r n o r ' s c a b i n e t  s e r v e s as t h e i n t e r m e d i a r y b e t w e e n c i v i l the  G o v e r n o r ' s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . As  service agencies  Executive Officer  o v e r a l l agency p o l i c y , Therefore,  including  before  and DNR,  of  the p o l i c y of the D i v i s i o n  the proposed fee b i l l  Commissioner's support  who  of the  the Commissioner i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t  Parks.  of  requires  i t w o u l d be r e v i e w e d  of  the by  the  Administration. At t h i s for  writing  legislation.  Governor's O f f i c e  t h e C o m m i s s i o n e r had  After  this approval,  the p r o p o s a l  f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e review.  t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g a d m i n i s t r a t i o n was by t h e n e w l y e l e c t e d G o v e r n o r and a result,  approved the  went t o  I t should  i s pending  review  administration. 62  and  be  r e p l a c e d December 1,  the noted 1986  h i s chosen a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .  t h e d e c i s i o n t o i n t r o d u c e t h e DPOR f e e b i l l  legislature  request  a p p r o v a l of the  new  to  the  As  Upon a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a p p r o v a l ,  the fee b i l l  introduced  to the L e g i s l a t u r e t h r o u g h the Rules  either  House o f  the  i n t r o d u c e d , the  Representatives  would  be  Committee  or the Senate.  of  Once  life  of the  fee b i l l  consecutive  sessions  of the  Legislature.  T h i s means t h a t i f t h e  bill  passed,  t a b l e d i n the  1987  i s not  Session,  i t can  If  be  but  considered  the fee b i l l  and  final  the  legislation  codified  step  of  i s p a s s e d by  the Governor.  5.3.3  be  Legislative  Session.  the L e g i s l a t u r e , the  I f approved,  fourth  (or veto) of the  bill  is  program r e c e i p t  o f r e v e n u e s f r o m t h e PUC  program  instituted.  Program  Operations  Program o p e r a t i o n s a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y Division, The  1988  as an A l a s k a S t a t u t e , and  procedures f o r the r e c o v e r y can  i n the  two  Legislative  a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s the a p p r o v a l  by  i n t o law  not  could extend through  and  authorized  can  be c h a r a c t e r i z e d as t h e o u t c o m e o f  t h a t has  by A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and  d e s c r i p t i o n of t h i s p o l i c y  analysis  because of  o p e r a t i o n and  the  the L e g i s l a t u r e .  outcome i s i m p o r t a n t  t h e p o l i c y e f f e c t s on  development of  problem statement).  been a d o p t e d by  t h e PUC  I n C h a p t e r 6 we  the  this  "continued  program" (quote w i l l assess  to  from  the i m p a c t s of  the p o l i c y outcome f o r program r e c e i p t s ; t h e r e f o r e i t i s important activities  to d e s c r i b e program maintenance o b j e c t i v e s to serve  as a b a s i s f o r t h i s  63  assessment.  and  The  program o p e r a t i o n  goal  f o r t h e PUC p r o g r a m i s :  M a i n t a i n a s a f e and a p p r o p r i a t e s t a n d a r d o f s e r v i c e u s i n g c o s t - e f f e c t i v e management methods." (AK DPOR, 1986d, p.2). To  t h i s end t h e a g e n c y h a s d e f i n e d t w o m a i n t e n a n c e  o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e program: (1) t o g i v e e a c h c a b i n t h e o v e r a l l a p p e a r a n c e o f b e i n g c l e a n and k e p t s a n i t a r y , f r e e f r o m l i t t e r , n e a t i n appearance, and w e l l kept; (2) t o i d e n t i f y and r e m e d y any p o t e n t i a l s a f e t y (AK DPOR, 1 9 8 6 c , p . 6 ) . Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s objective cleaning repair  to achieve  i n c l u d e s day-to-day maintenance  (i.e.,  these regular  o f c a b i n s ) , and s p e c i a l m a i n t e n a n c e ( i . e . ,  of cabin As  designed  non-regular  fixtures).  s e e n i n t h e PUC p l a n  (AK DNR 1985,  manager h a s f o u r p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s maintenance  hazards"  p.57) t h e p r o g r a m  of personnel  to undertake  activities:  (1) A l a s k a C o n s e r v a t i o n C o r p s - y o u t h s b e t w e e n t h e a g e s o f 18 and 25 — a r e s e a s o n a l l y e m p l o y e d f o r m a i n t e n a n c e o f park f a c i l i t i e s ; (2) " b a c k c o u n t r y " c o n t r a c t o r s - a i r and w a t e r t a x i operators, guides, or other businesses that normally operate i n p r o x i m i t y t o the cabins, these businesses c o u l d be c o n t r a c t e d t o m a i n t a i n t h e c a b i n s ; (3) a g e n c y p e r s o n n e l - P a r k T e c h n i c i a n s assigned to maintenance d u t i e s ;  and P a r k  (4) v o l u n t e e r l a b o r - w o u l d a l s o r e q u i r e s t a f f and s u p e r v i s i o n .  64  Ranger  coordination  Cabins  w o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d  to the standards defined i n  t h e PUC p r o g r a m p o l i c y w i t h p e r s o n n e l b e i n g r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e 26 a c t i v i t i e s d e f i n e d i n t h e S t a n d a r d  Maintenance  Checklist f o r  t h e c a b i n s (AK DPOR, 1 9 8 5 , p . 9 0 ) . M o n i e s w o u l d be a l l o c a t e d f r o m account  s u p p l i e s and r e p a i r  The  above  to the  Uncertainty  proposal f o rthe fee b i l l  by t h e DPOR i s s i g n i f i c a n t  t h i s case study because i t s i g n a l s thechoice o f a program  receipts  over a p o l i c y of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of t h e program.  adoption of the fee b i l l  by t h e a g e n c y ; t h i s on  Receipts accrued  o f new c a b i n s .  5.3.4 I d e n t i f y i n g  The  fixtures.  beyond m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s m i g h t be a p p l i e d  construction  to  receipts  f o r t h e f u n d i n g o f p e r s o n n e l and t h e p u r c h a s e o f  cleaning and  the program  which  this  i s based  on v a r i a b l e s  controlled  choice sets the stage f o r the p o l i c y  thesis  issue  focuses.  T h e r e a r e many s o u r c e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h i n t h e f o u r major s t a g e s between p r o p o s i n g a b i l l enacted  and i n e f f e c t .  alone or i n combination  and h a v i n g  Among t h e s i g n i f i c a n t could prevent  i t finally  factors,  which  the passage o f the b i l l ,  are: (1) t h e new g o v e r n o r may n o t s u p p o r t t h e p r o p o s a l and therefore refuses to introduce i tto the l e g i s l a t u r e ; (2) t h e n o r m a l l y u n p r e d i c t a b l e b e h a v i o r o f t h e A l a s k a Legislature; (3) t h e g o v e r n o r may v e t o t h e b i l l the l e g i s l a t u r e . 65  after  i t has p a s s e d  from  Agency steps.  influence significantly  In the f i r s t  directly  proposal  influence with  i s passed  At this  legislature, legislation. information  after  t h e a g e n c y may n o t l o b b y Instead,  i s introduced  when r e q u e s t e d  these  so l i t t l e  variables w i l l  i n f l u e n c e over the  a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase  be c l a s s i f i e d a s  The c o m b i n a t i o n  i n f l u e n c e and u n c e r t a i n t y o f p o l i c y  o f a l a c k o f agency  authorization  t h a t t h i s p h a s e be a m a j o r p o i n t o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y  of  this  briefing  t o do s o .  the l e g i s l a t i v e  variables."  to the  f o r the passage of the  t h e agency can o n l y p r o v i d e  variables associated with  receipts.  Once t h e  only i f asked t o provide  the b i l l  Because the agency can e x e r t  "situational  efforts.  t o the Governor's a d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r review,  Similarly,  of implementation,  p o i n t t h e a g e n c y has  i t s ' lobbying  t h e d i r e c t o r may l o b b y f o r t h e b i l l information.  This supposition w i l l  suggests f o r program  be a d d r e s s e d i n l a t e r  sections  chapter.  Both stages  o f program  operation  (i.e.,  revenue  recovery  and p r o g r a m m a i n t e n a n c e ) a r e s i g n i f i c a n t  to the continuance  the  of l e g i s l a t i v e  PUC p r o g r a m .  With the establishment  p r e c e d e n c e , i t i s assumed t h a t t h e r e  i s a high degree of  certainty  be r e c o v e r e d  that program  receipts will  For program maintenance o p e r a t i o n s , c r e d e n t i a l s and e x p e r i e n c e this  these  s t e p , t h e d i r e c t o r o f t h e a g e n c y c a n meet  w i t h the Commissioner.  the g r e a t e s t  decreases i n each of  given  66  year.  the p r o f e s s i o n a l  of the personnel  phase, i t i s assumed t h e r e  every  of  responsible for  i s a high degree of c e r t a i n t y  that the  t h i s phase w i l l  be  s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented.  Therefore,  outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o r revenue r e c o v e r y  program maintenance phases i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d  and  by a good d e g r e e o f  certainty. I n summary, t h e  outcome of the  legislative  authorization  p h a s e i s t h e most u n c e r t a i n  of a l l program  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phases.  outcome of t h i s phase of  The  receipt  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s d e t e r m i n e d l a r g e l y , i f not e x c l u s i v e l y , variable This  f a c t o r s o v e r w h i c h the  a g e n c y has  s u g g e s t s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between the  little  influence.  amount o f  agency  i n f l u e n c e o v e r p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n v a r i a b l e s , and certainty  of p o l i c y outcome.  concession operations,  In t h e  the  classification  this relationship will  be  by  analysis  of  examined  further. 5.4  CONCESSIONS POLICY In t h i s s e c t i o n , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  d e s c r i p t i o n o f PUC management.  This  concessionaire objectives  program a c t i v i t i e s analysis w i l l  i s uncertain.  It w i l l  to the  also  Under A l a s k a  profit  Administrative  into concession contracts  organizations,  or  i d e n t i f y causal  agency i n the  a  process  of program variables  of  strategy.  Code 11  AAC  14.200, t h e  w i t h commercial or  DPOR  non-  i n d i v i d u a l s , to develop, operate,  67  to  concessionaire  i d e n t i f y the e l e m e n t s  i m p l e m e n t i n g a c o n c e s s i o n s management  enter  under  management f o r w h i c h t h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f  i n t e r n a l or e x t e r n a l  can  analysis i s applied  and  maintain  p u b l i c use cabins  t h e PUC p r o g r a m , c o n c e s s i o n recovering  operation  implement a wholly  and d e v e l o p m e n t .  o p e r a t i o n , the D i v i s i o n would  To  have t o  d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y and p r o c e d u r e t h a n  that  w i t h program r e c e i p t s .  Germane t o t h i s c a s e s t u d y field  i s an a l t e r n a t i v e method o f  revenues f o r program o p e r a t i o n  affect concessionaire  involved  (AK DPOR, 1 9 8 6 d , p.7). F o r  staff  t o c o n t r a c t w i t h an e x i s t i n g  a non-profit cooperating operations,  i s the proposal  by D i v i s i o n  n o n - p r o f i t , or develop  a s s o c i a t i o n , to take over  i n c l u d i n g revenue recovery.  program  Use f e e s w o u l d  be  c o l l e c t e d and a l l o c a t e d f o r t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o f t h e c a b i n s by the c o n c e s s i o n a i r e , e f f e c t i v e l y requirement f o r the deposit  circumventing  the s t a t u t o r i a l  of a l l revenues i n the general  fund. The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s d e s c r i b e t h e process, for  and p r o g r a m  the operation Park,  of other  State Parks  (i.e.,  operations  by t h e a g e n c y .  t h e a g e n c y has d e v e l o p e d t w o c o o p e r a t i n g  Historical has  procedures,  a n o n - p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n , as e n v i s i o n e d  Although for  revenue r e c o v e r y  implementation  associations  Big Delta  Independence Mine S t a t e H i s t o r i c a l  yet to implement concession  p u b l i c use c a b i n s .  Therefore,  State  Park), i t  management f o r a s y s t e m o f this  d e s c r i p t i o n i s b a s e d on  a g e n c y d o c u m e n t s , e x t e n s i v e m e e t i n g s w i t h a g e n c y s t a f f , and meetings with r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of s i m i l a r associations.  68  non-profit  5.4.1  Implementation To  a large extent,  concession or  Process  operation  t o use  the  Shanks t e r m i n o l o g y ,  situation  The  first  of  cabins.  of  defined,  This p o l i c y  t o be a p p l i e d i n a " b o i l e r p l a t e "  step  to f a c i l i t a t e  implementation  formulated.  i s already  and fashion  demands.  policy the  procedure f o r  of agency f a c i l i t i e s  procedure i s designed as  t h e p o l i c y and  (which  has  not  been t a k e n ) i s t o a d o p t a  c o n t r a c t i n g f o r the n o n - p r o f i t  In t h i s  case the  field  staff  of t h i s p o l i c y concurrent  has  t o the  operation  proposed implementation  a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y .  The  d e c i s i o n t o go a h e a d w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a  cooperating  a s s o c i a t i o n w o u l d be  (Concession  Contracting  Process  (1) c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n o f w i t h park u n i t operations;  b a s e d on  three  O v e r v i e w , AK the  facilities  findings  DPOR, 1 9 8 6 a ) : are  consistent  (2) f o r - p r o f i t o p e r a t o r s a r e n o t i n t e r e s t e d i n p r o v i d i n g o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t s e r v i c e s f o r t h e p r o g r a m ; (3) e x i s t i n g If was  in fact  non-profit corporations an  i n t e r e s t e d and  existing had  are  not i n t e r e s t e d .  n o n - p r o f i t or f o r - p r o f i t  the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y t o  operator operate  as a c o n c e s s i o n a i r e , t h e n t h e D i v i s i o n w o u l d b e g i n d r a f t i n g c o n t r a c t l a n g u a g e , and cooperating  forego  association.  69  the  development of a s p e c i a l  The policy  next set of  s t e p s f o r the  to develop a c o o p e r a t i n g  collectively  as  the  t h i s process are:  Directors;  (2)  the  (1)  the  and  facilitator The  s i t on  dedicated the  and  they  Throughout the i n an  incorporation  organization,  aimed s p e c i f i c a l l y  bring self-  whose  Agency employees  process advisory  f o r the  PUC  as  f o r the  of role.  defined  at p r o v i d i n g  i n the  operation  submit to incorporate The  months.  status  the  with  period this  under the period  A l s o , the  federal  and  would  development  Board  r e q u i r e m e n t s of  the  i s not  State  Board would apply f o r tax  of is  exempt  The  s o m e t i m e s e x t e n d beyond a  necessary to begin  70  would  f o r documents of i n c o r p o r a t i o n  I n t e r n a l Revenue S e r v i c e .  f o r t h i s can  status  by-laws,  The  program.  processing  about three  the  organization.  Upon c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e s e d o c u m e n t s , t h e  although  Directors,  newly formed Board of D i r e c t o r s would then d r a f t  the  processing  incorporation  i n t e n t i o n i s to develop a  would serve only  purposes of  Alaska.  of  of  c a t a l y s t to  to t h i s o b j e c t i v e .  Board.  a r t i c l e s of  services  articles  s e l e c t i o n of a Board of  r o l e of  b y - l a w s and  be  b y - l a w s and  independently operated organization  b o a r d members a r e  The  steps  status.  t o g e t h e r p o t e n t i a l members.  incorporation  three  s e l e c t i o n of a Board  s u b m i s s i o n of a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r  agency p l a y s  w o u l d not  the  a  labelled  The  (3)  d e v e l o p m e n t and  perpetuating  incorporation."  d r a f t i n g of  tax-exempt In t h e  be  the  incorporation; and  a s s o c i a t i o n can  "process of  comprising  agency, a f t e r a d o p t i n g  year,  operations.  As t h e n e w l y f o r m e d o r g a n i z a t i o n an e x i s t i n g n o n - p r o f i t  agreed to enter  n e g o t i a t i o n s , the agency for  the concession  would  contract.  i s incorporating, or i f into  contract  be d r a f t i n g s p e c i f i c  language  One o f t h e more i m p o r t a n t  clauses  w o u l d s t a t e t h a t a l l r e c e i p t s w o u l d be r e a l l o c a t e d i n t o facility  m a i n t e n a n c e and d e v e l o p m e n t .  i n c l u d e revenue accounting specifications,  agency  procedures,  inspections,  Other language  would  maintenance  assumption of  liability,  etc. Division representatives Attorney  G e n e r a l ' s O f f i c e and t h e D i v i s i o n o f R i s k  to ensure the l e g a l i t y Department state  w o u l d a l s o meet w i t h t h e  of contract  of A d m i n i s t r a t i o n  basis;  and a p p l y  f o r a b i d waiver to the  contracting procedure.  l e t on a c o m p e t i t i v e  specifics,  Management  In most c a s e s ,  to the  standard  state contracts are  i n a n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e s i t u a t i o n such  a s t h i s c a s e , an a g e n c y may a p p l y  f o r a b i d waiver.  such a p p l i c a t i o n s are out of the o r d i n a r y ,  Because  processing  usually  Having completed the process of i n c o r p o r a t i o n ,  contract  t a k e s b e t w e e n one a n d f o u r m o n t h s .  drafting agency  and a p p r o v a l  would  cooperative profit,  enter  into contract  negotiations.  and t h e  Because of the  r e l a t i o n s h i p s h a r e d by t h e agency and t h e non-  negotiations  tune" the c o n t r a c t . revenue recovery to  of the b i d waiver, the n o n - p r o f i t  the non-profit  would provide  the opportunity  Upon t h e s i g n i n g  of the contract,  p r o c e d u r e s and o p e r a t i o n s corporation.  71  to "fine specified  w o u l d be t r a n s f e r r e d  5.4.2  Revenue  Recovery  U n l i k e program  Process  r e c e i p t s , i n a concession  onus o f r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y the  selected contractor.  general all  shifts  fund;  monies  No m o n i e s  w o u l d be d e p o s i t e d  i n the case of n o n - p r o f i t o p e r a t i o n ,  recovered  the  from the D i v i s i o n of Parks to i n the  by  contract  f r o m use f e e s w o u l d be r e i n v e s t e d i n  facility  maintenance or development.  recovery  of revenues v a r i e s from s c e n a r i o  generally  operation  i s not s i g n i f i c a n t .  Agency  I n one  involvement i n the  to scenario,  scenario,  the  but  Division  m i g h t c o l l e c t u s e r f e e s a s p a r t o f an a g r e e m e n t  to operate the  cabin  i n the account  reservation.  Use  fees would  of the n o n - p r o f i t , w i t h as i t saw  fit.  be d e p o s i t e d  the o r g a n i z a t i o n  In a n o t h e r s c e n a r i o ,  t o t a l l y responsible  later allocating  funds  the n o n - p r o f i t might  f o r the c o l l e c t i o n  and a l l o c a t i o n o f  be user  f ees. The n o n - p r o f i t  would  be r e q u i r e d  accounts of a l l revenue a l l o c a t i o n s  and  t o keep  accurate  subsequent  spending.  The b o o k s o f t h e n o n - p r o f i t w o u l d be o p e n t o t h e D i v i s i o n f o r review 5.4.3  at appropriate Program  intervals.  Operations  The n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n the c a b i n s  w o u l d be r e q u i r e d  to the standards defined  i n the c o n t r a c t ;  to  maintain  those  s t a n d a r d s a r e b a s e d on t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o b j e c t i v e s d e s c r i b e d i n section  4.3.4.  Sources of personnel  might range from v o l u n t e e r s  for regular  maintenance  t o members o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n t o  72  contractors  hired  f o r s p e c i a l r e p a i r work.  e x p e n d i t u r e s from v o l u n t e e r rehabilitation  field  l a b o r m i g h t be r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h e  or development of other  Agency f u n c t i o n s  a r e met, a i d o r s u p e r v i s i o n  5.4.4  Identifying This  include  to ensure maintenance  in rehabilitation  p r o j e c t s , and an o n g o i n g a d v i s o r y of the n o n - p r o f i t  cabins.  at t h i s stage of operations  inspections of f a c i l i t i e s  level  Savings i n personnel  standards  and d e v e l o p m e n t  presence at the managerial  organization.  Uncertainty  section c l a s s i f i e s  t h e amount o f i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y  m a k e r s have o v e r v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d  with  each phase o f  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and i d e n t i f i e s t h e p h a s e s i n w h i c h t h e r e greatest  uncertainty  i s the  of p o l i c y outcome.  The p r o c e s s o f i n c o r p o r a t i n g a n o n - p r o f i t  corporation i s  made up o f a n u m b e r o f v a r i a b l e s o v e r w h i c h t h e a g e n c y h a s a high  degree of c o n t r o l .  A l t h o u g h agency i n v o l v e m e n t  somewhat t h r o u g h t h e p r o c e s s ,  the i n i t i a l  decreases  framework developed  by t h e a g e n c y w o u l d i n e f f e c t c o n t r o l f o r v a r i a b l e s s u c h a s choice  o f B o a r d members,  managerial s t a f f ,  d r a f t i n g of by-laws, s e l e c t i o n of  e t c . I n t h i s manner t h e a g e n c y g u i d e s t h e  outcome o f the p r o c e s s ,  b r i n g i n g a high  that  be a c h i e v e d ,  of  incorporation  will  degree of c e r t a i n t y  given  adequate a l l o c a t i o n  resources. The n e x t s t e p — a g e n c y d r a f t i n g o f t h e c o n c e s s i o n  i s very  significant  contract—  t o t h e p o l i c y o u t c o m e , and i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d  73  by a h i g h  degree of agency i n v o l v e m e n t i n the p r o c e s s .  While  the c e r t a i n t y o f outcome i s h i g h , t h e r e i s a f a i r amount o f u n c e r t a i n t y a s t o how l o n g i t w o u l d t a k e t o c o m p l e t e t h i s Statutorial  l a n g u a g e , l i a b i l i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s , and  p r o c e d u r e s must be r e v i e w e d Division,  by a g e n c i e s o t h e r  a l l of which might c o n t r i b u t e  completion of t h i s  step.  bidding  than the  to delays  i n the  phase.  The n e x t s t e p — t h e  revenue recovery  the  agency i n c o o r d i n a t i o n  the  agency c o u l d  with  the non-profit.  range from high  w o u l d have b u i l t a h i g h  process—is  s e t up by  Involvement of  t o l o w , a l t h o u g h t h e agency  degree of a c c o u n t a b i l i t y i n t o the  procedure. A source of u n c e r t a i n t y  involved  i n t h i s step  amount o f t i m e i t w o u l d t a k e t h e n o n - p r o f i t operations  seems a r e a s o n a b l e c o n j e c t u r e w i t h a good management revenue recovery For  This  t h a t an e s t a b l i s h e d  than a newly formed  It  non-profit  " t r a c k r e c o r d " w o u l d more r e a d i l y  operations  would  p r a c t i c e s of the n o n - p r o f i t .  both the revenue recovery  operations,  assume  organization.  p r o c e s s and p r o g r a m  a number o f s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s c o m b i n e t o  p r o d u c e a medium d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y outcome o b j e c t i v e s w i l l step,  t o assume  i n an i n d e p e n d e n t and c o m p e t e n t manner.  be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e management  i s the  the agency a g a i n  through the concession  be a c h i e v e d . has a h i g h contract,  74  as t o when  policy  In the program  operations  degree of a c c o u n t a b i l i t y but again  there  i s a f a c t o r of  uncertainty be  a s t o how  e f f i c i e n t l y maintenance o b j e c t i v e s  will  met. In c o n c l u s i o n ,  policy are  each step of i m p l e m e n t i n g a  can be c h a r a c t e r i z e d  as b e i n g  concession  a f f e c t e d by v a r i a b l e s  w i t h i n the i n f l u e n c e of agency p o l i c y makers.  a high degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t will  u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d .  variables, capacity  the p r e s c r i b e d  situational  " r e d t a p e " , and t h e m a n a g e r i a l  of the n o n - p r o f i t , i s to c r e a t e  efficiently,  produces  p o l i c y outcome  Yet, the a f f e c t of  s u c h as i n t e r - a g e n c y  This  that  uncertainty  and when t h e p o l i c y o u t c o m e w i l l  as t o  how  u l t i m a t e l y be  achieved. 5.5  INTERPRETATION OF Answers  formulated program ask  RESULTS  to f i r s t  two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s  from the preceding  classification  r e c e i p t s p o l i c y and c o n c e s s i o n  about the s t r e n g t h s  cause of these, vulnerable  and w e a k n e s s e s  to f a i l u r e .  Also,  and what t h a t p r o b l e m m i g h t  this  mean t h e c e r t a i n t y w i t h  there  policy.  These  questions  are of each p o l i c y , the  suggest  how  to the basic p o l i c y problem,  be. of a p o l i c y i s given  to  w h i c h i t c a n be s u c c e s s f u l l y  The w e a k n e s s  are s i g n i f i c a n t  o f a p o l i c y i s g i v e n t o mean t h a t  l e v e l s of u n c e r t a i n t y  s u c c e s s f u l outcome of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . uncertainty  a n a l y s i s of  section w i l l  t h i s a n a l y s i s , the s t r e n g t h  implemented.  be  and a t what p o i n t t h e p o l i c i e s a r e most  these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o n t r i b u t e  For  can  with  Areas or phases of  a r e a l s o r e f e r r e d t o as p o i n t s 75  associated  of  vulnerability.  the  Recalling program  the  description  receipts  policy,  of  implementation  the  analysis  phases  showed  for  the  that:  (1) a g e n c y i n v o l v e m e n t and i n f l u e n c e i s h i g h throughout p h a s e s o f p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n , and l o w to n e g l i g i b l e f o r the p r e c e d i n g phases of p o l i c y authorization; (2) t h e o u t c o m e o f t h e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s the most u n c e r t a i n s t a g e o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ;  phase  (3) t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t the o p e r a t i o n a l phases of the p o l i c y w i l l succeed. This policy  is  suggests the  objectives basis  for  weakness  involved  with  high the of its  strength  degree  of  certainty  this  policy  seems  the  is  concerning  primary  of p o l i c y  point  the  the  of  achieving  points  in of  the  receipts outcome  other  high degree  vulnerability  for  program  On t h e  Further,  the  of  outcome  of  phases.  authorization.  question  uncertainty  the  operational  subsidiary that  that  of  hand,  uncertainty  answer  to  the  vulnerability, is  legislative  the  it  the authorization  phase.  The a n a l y s i s showed  of  concession  policy  implementation  phases  that: (1) t h e r e i s a medium amount o f agency i n f l u e n c e throughout a l l stages of implementation; (2) t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t p o l i c y o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s c a n u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d , s t e m m i n g f r o m t h e agency's a b i l i t y to c o n t r o l for c r i t i c a l variables through the c o n c e s s i o n contract; (3) t h e r e i s a d e g r e e o f outcome o b j e c t i v e s might l a c k of agency i n f l u e n c e variables.  76  u n c e r t a i n t y as t o when p o l i c y be a c h i e v e d , s t e m m i n g f r o m t h e over s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n a l  This  suggests the  strength  of  the  concession  policy is  the h i g h d e g r e e of c e r t a i n t y t h a t the p r o g r a m can i m p l e m e n t e d and policy  i s that  operationalized.  The  i t s ' implementation  control. the  T h i s s u g g e s t s the  operational For  c h i e f weakness of  i s vulnerable  s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s over w h i c h the  a g e n c y has  primary point  stage of p o l i c y  be the  to delay little  from  or  no  of v u l n e r a b i l i t y  is  implementation.  b o t h p o l i c i e s , i t seems t h a t  the  level  of  agency  i n f l u e n c e over c o n t r i b u t i n g p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s c o r r e l a t e s to certainty there  t o w h i c h a p h a s e can  i s a high  be  i n f l u e n c e , there  outcome, o r , Field  the  ever  When t h e  i s a low  whether the I  compensate f o r u n c e r t a i n t y t h e y have a h i g h i n f l u e n c e the  a g e n c y has  high  a  low  uncertain.  p e r s o n n e l have p r o p o s e d t h e  be a u t h o r i z e d .  is a  concessions p o l i c y program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y  propose that  they are  t r y i n g to  by i n t r o d u c i n g a p o l i c y o v e r  d e g r e e o f c o n t r o l , and  p o l i c y outcome.  This  therefore  can  which  better  suggests that a lack  of  agency c o n t r o l over c e r t a i n p o l i c y phases i s e l e m e n t a l to d e f i n i t i o n of solution  t h i s p o l i c y i s s u e , and  to t h i s  when  degree of c e r t a i n t y of  o u t c o m e i s s a i d t o be  because they are u n c e r t a i n will  I suggest that  d e g r e e of agency i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e  degree of c e r t a i n t y of outcome. degree of  achieved.  the  the  development of  the  a  issue.  I f the l a c k of agency c o n t r o l i s a p r i m a r y e l e m e n t of policy  issue, i t follows  t h a t any  77  s o l u t i o n s to the  issue  the  should  include  methods o f  i n c r e a s i n g agency c o n t r o l .  developed to evaluate to  increase  agency c o n t r o l .  untouched other the  policy modifications  e l e m e n t s of  "uncertainty  Yet the  i s s u e " and  makers i n v o l v e d  b a s e d on  could  the  p o l i c y issue.  to i d e n t i f y other  One  way  Their  the  p o l i c y issue.  p o s i t i o n s and 5.6  other  Chapter Three i n c l u d e d  assumptional analysis. next s e c t i o n of  identify  this  the  rationale for a  p r e m i s e s of the  Overview The  l a c k of  of  elements  a discussion  of  be a p p l i e d  to d e f i n e  of  in  the  the  p o l i c y makers.  Procedure  substantive  to check the  f u n c t i o n of  l o g i c o f my  t h i s assumptional analysis i s  conjecture  t h a t agency c o n t r o l , or  i t , i s the p r i m a r y p o l i c y i s s u e i n t h i s case study.  r a t i o n a l e of p o l i c y makers f o r t h e i r recovery  first  critical  step  stakeholders. affected  p.586).  choice  of a  The  revenue  p o l i c y might support or d i s c r e d i t t h i s c o n j e c t u r e ,  expose other  is  premise  ASSUMPTIONAL ANALYSIS  5.6.1  The  critical  These t e c h n i q u e s w i l l  case study i n order  test  contributing  s p e c i f i c p o l i c y r e c o m m e n d a t i o n m i g h t f u r t h e r s u p p o r t my concerning u n c e r t a i n t y , or  left  to  a s s u m p t i o n s of  i n t h i s case.  be  ability  t h i s a n a l y s i s so f a r has  f a c t o r s i s t o e x a m i n e t h e p r e m i s e s and policy  Criteria  e l e m e n t s as o f  by an  the  a g e n c y , and  identification  i s someone t h a t  organization  This a n a l y s i s w i l l  d i r e c t o r of  yet u n i d e n t i f i e d .  i n t h i s a n a l y s i s i s the A stakeholders  and  f o c u s on the  78  or  both a f f e c t s  i t s policies two  (Mitroff  stakeholders:  superintendent  of p o l i c y and 1979,  the  proposing  the  alternate policy.  These two s t a k e h o l d e r s  because t h e i r p o s i t i o n s a f f o r d  have been c h o s e n  two d i f f e r e n t  p e r s p e c t i v e s on  t h e same p r o b l e m . The  different  p e r s p e c t i v e s of the stakeholders  a r e based  on d i f f e r e n t p r e m i s e s and a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e p o l i c y  problem  and  I t should  i t s interrelationship  be r e c o g n i z e d  to other  that w h i l e the d e f i n i t i o n of stakeholder  assumptions i s s u b j e c t i v e , every these  management i s s u e s .  effort  i n a c o n s i s t e n t and r e a s o n a b l e  i s made t o d e v e l o p  manner f r o m t h e s u p p o r t i n g  data. 5.6.2 Agency The  Director  D i r e c t o r of the Alaska D i v i s i o n of Parks  and O u t d o o r  R e c r e a t i o n i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e management and o p e r a t i o n o f all  u n i t s and f a c i l i t i e s  nature,  such a p o s i t i o n  of the A l a s k a S t a t e Park System.  e n t a i l s a "macro-approach" t o d e c i s i o n  making; t h i s approach i s necessary highly  c o m p l e x and i n t e r r e l a t e d Other than  the d i r e c t o r director  By  f o r the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of  policy  issues.  p o l i c y making, the major r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of  i n c l u d e b u d g e t a r y and l e g i s l a t i v e  matters.  The  a c t s as t h e Governor's r e p r e s e n t a t i v e ( f o r t h e agency)  to the l e g i s l a t u r e  during  the budgetary process,  involved i n the l e g i s l a t i v e  process  f o r matters  and i s concerning  S t a t e P a r k u n i t s and p r o g r a m s . Of  importance to t h i s a n a l y s i s i s the approach the  d i r e c t o r has t a k e n  to the implementation  79  o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m .  In  a memo t o t h e DNR C o m m i s s i o n e r r e q u e s t i n g adoption of t h e fee  bill,  he w r i t e s  that  Administration the  Division's  approach i s t o : ...mesh c a b i n a n d p a r k f e e s t o g e t h e r w i t h o u r o t h e r f e e p r o g r a m s s u c h a s g u i d e and c o m m e r c i a l o u t f i t t e r fees...one b i l l i s e a s i e r t o manage t h a n s e v e r a l . (AK DPOR 1 9 8 6 e , p . l ) . A l t h o u g h t h i s c a s e s t u d y has so f a r approached  t h e PUC  p r o g r a m a s an i s o l a t e d i s s u e , a c t u a l l y i t i s one o f a number o f agency programs w i t h economic components t h a t share s i m i l a r c o n s t r a i n t s and o b j e c t i v e s . campground o p e r a t i o n outfitter The  programs  include  and m a i n t e n a n c e , and g u i d e and c o m m e r c i a l  programs. m a j o r c o n s t r a i n t f o r a l l p r o g r a m s w i t h an e c o n o m i c  c o m p o n e n t i s House B i l l 20,  Those o t h e r  696.  From t h e  d i r e c t o r ' s memo o f A u g u s t  1986: ...our b i g f e a r i s t h a t t h e s e E X I S T I N G f e e s [ i . e . , p u b l i c use c a b i n s , g u i d e a n d o u t f i t t e r f e e s ] w i l l be s u n s e t t e d come J u l y 1987 by t h e n e w l y e n a c t e d P r o c u r e m e n t B i l l (HB 696) . This  constraint i s inherently legislative;  given  the  ways  a n d m e a n s o f t h e d i r e c t o r , i t i s n a t u r a l he w o u l d p r e s s f o r a legislative importantly,  solution to a legislative  theconstraining  design how  p o l i c y , that  deadline  and e v a l u a t i o n  w e l l the  More  t h i s h i g h l i g h t s another dimension to the  d e f i n i t i o n of a preferred of  problem.  being  the  consideration  o f t h e "Procurement B i l l . "  of p o l i c y modifications  p o l i c y meets the  80  Any  must a c c o u n t f o r  J u l y 1, 1987 d e a d l i n e  o f HB 696.  One  of the unstated  d e v e l o p m e n t o b j e c t i v e s s h a r e d by t h e  PUC p r o g r a m a n d a l l o t h e r p r o g r a m s i s a r e s u l t o f t h e d i r e c t o r ' s management s t r a t e g y . is  t h a t t h e agency  "in-house"  before  should  Generally  stated,  h i s strategy  operate revenue recovery  privatization  programs  through concession  operation.  The r a t i o n a l e f o r t h i s s t r a t e g y i s t h a t t h e a g e n c y w i l l t o w o r k a l l t h e "bugs" o u t o f t h e s y s t e m , and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e i n the o p e r a t i o n One it  operation  o f new  programs  of these  programs.  for uncertainty  by k e e p i n g them i n - h o u s e .  i s that  i n the As  s u g g e s t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h e more p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s an a g e n c y control,  t h e more l i k e l y  achieved.  the a l t e r n a t i v e o p t i o n  to operate the programs through concession i n v o l v e m e n t and c o n t r o l o v e r c r i t i c a l  that the  The  v a r i a b l e s would decrease.  t h e d i r e c t o r has p l a c e d  first  things  i s that the e v a l u a t i o n  Therefore,  o f p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s must i s s u e s , s u c h as  HB  the D i v i s i o n d i r e c t o r places  b a s e d on t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f h i s s t r a t e g y  a  implementation,  I t a l s o r a i s e s the question 81  argue  assumptional analysis.  this  development.  and  in-house.  on c o n t r o l l i n g t h e o u t c o m e o f p o l i c y  program  agency  on t h e c e r t a i n t y o f  high value being  chosen  I would  by k e e p i n g them  larger contextual  Second, i t s u g g e s t s t h a t  was  management,  implementation  value  a r e s u g g e s t e d by t h i s  take i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n 696.  a high  outcome of economic p o l i c i e s Two  can  t h e d e s i r e d o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s c a n be  I f , for instance,  operational  able  gain  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h i s management p h i l o s o p h y  s i g n a l s an a t t e m p t t o c o m p e n s a t e  be  f o r PUC  that  i f both  the d i r e c t o r controlling different 5.6.3  and  the area superintendent p l a c e a high value  for certainty  why  do t h e y  recommend  approaches?  Area  Superintendent  Area  superintendents within  f o r the day-to-day units  of p o l i c y ,  within  the agency are r e s p o n s i b l e  m a i n t e n a n c e and  a geographical area.  o p e r a t i o n of S t a t e The  t o one  The policies  agency.  r o l e of the superintendent  i s to implement  the  development).  Therefore,  operationalization,  the c e n t r a l  o f f i c e (although  advisory role  his chief  duty,  i s quite different  responsibility for policy  l e g i s l a t i v e and carried  T h i s would suggest  policy out  policy  from  t h a t of  solutions The of  development.  directives,  the  boundaries  h i s ways and means a r e  i n t h e management o f  by  the area  superintendent 82  and  the  superintendent.  r e c o v e r y o f r e v e n u e f o r t h e m a i n t e n a n c e and  f o r the area  he  program  T h i s i s i n the d e f i n i t i o n of the problem  proposed  policy.  that i f confronted w i t h a p o l i c y problem,  Nancy L a k e S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n A r e a  concern  the  i n the o p e r a t i o n a l stages of a  would look f o r a s o l u t i o n operations.  area  in policy  W h i l e t h e s u p e r i n t e n d e n t does w o r k w i t h i n  primarily  and  managers of the  s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s p l a y an a c t i v e  of  matters,  of the t h r e e r e g i o n a l  "handed down" f r o m  directors  Park  area superintendent i s  a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e f o r personnel m a t t e r s , budgetary reports  on  c a b i n s had  been a  even b e f o r e HB 696  operation priority was  authorized. 1986,  In a number o f m e e t i n g s i n t h e s p r i n g and summer o f  the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t  p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s and of  expressed  the o p i n i o n that  c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n were a v i a b l e means  revenue r e c o v e r y , g i v e n t h a t adequate r e s o u r c e s  available  t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e one  The approach  superintendent, to g e t t i n g  both  of the  were  policies.  in his "either-or-both" policy  t h e j o b o f r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y done  by  w h a t e v e r means p o s s i b l e i s a t t e m p t i n g t o r e t a i n t h e number o f options  he  has  available  f o r h i s use.  The  preferred policy  s o l u t i o n of the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , combined p o l i c i e s ,  does  contradict  or  strategy  the d i r e c t o r ' s approach  f o r keeping  revenue r e c o v e r y  s u p e r i n t e n d e n t can u s e  policy.  o p e r a t i o n s i n c e 1984,  in-house.  his  First,  the  the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i f i t  a u t h o r i z e d , o r have t h e c o n c e s s i o n contingency  to the problem,  not  Secondly, so one  s t r a t e g y a v a i l a b l e as  h i s system  o f PUCs has  might suggest  a  been i n  that his s t a f f  have  g a i n e d a f a i r amount of e x p e r t i s e i n the o p e r a t i o n of the program to  and  private In  t h e r e f o r e w o u l d be r e a d y  the program  trying  t h a t some f o r m  t o keep e v e r y p o l i c y  door f o r revenue  i s increasing  of revenue r e c o v e r y w i l l  the  recovery  probability  be a v a i l a b l e f o r h i s  I t s h o w s he p l a c e s a h i g h v a l u e on t h e c e r t a i n t y o f  outcome.  out"  sector operation.  open, the a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t  use.  t o "put  For t h i s e v a l u a t i o n i t w i l l  t h i s value into a c r i t e r i o n  be i m p o r t a n t  f o r d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a  solution.  83  to  policy  translate  policy  In answer t o t h e q u e s t i o n posed i n t h e l a s t s e c t i o n , t h e proposal so  of the superintendent  d i f f e r s from the d i r e c t o r s '  f a r a s i t adds t o t h e l a t t e r s p o s i t i o n .  approach i s t o r e t a i n each a l t e r n a t i v e certainty  o f outcome, t h i s being  responsibilities  for policy  The  i n order  only  superintendent's to increase  a f u n c t i o n of h i s  operations.  5.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS I n C h a p t e r Two we saw t h a t t h e c o n s e n s u s o f D i v i s i o n personnel  was t h a t r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y  continued  d e v e l o p m e n t and o p e r a t i o n o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m .  saw  was a r e q u i s i t e f o r We a l s o  t h a t t w o p o l i c i e s had been p r o p o s e d t o meet t h i s need.  t h i s chapter  the basic issues a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the  implementation evaluation The  o f t h e s e p o l i c i e s have been i d e n t i f i e d f o r  by m e t h o d s o f p o l i c y  impact  analysis.  r e s u l t s o f t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and  assumptional  a n a l y s i s have c o n c l u d e d  revenue recovery  t h a t both p o l i c i e s f o r  were proposed t o i n c r e a s e the c e r t a i n t y  p o l i c y o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s w o u l d be a c h i e v e d . assumptional  analysis,  i t was s u g g e s t e d  t h a t both  In the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s ,  policy of p o l i c y  the inherent  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s o f e a c h p o l i c y identified.  From t h i s I c o n c l u d e d  were  t h a t t h e two s t a k e h o l d e r s  proposed d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s because o f t h e i r i n h e r e n t l y d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s on p o l i c y vulnerabilities. 84  that  In the  s t a k e h o l d e r s p l a c e a h i g h v a l u e on t h e c e r t a i n t y outcome.  In  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and  The  first  two  subsidiary questions  concerned the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n each p o l i c y , a s s o c i a t e d vulnerability.  of  causal  i n the  high  high  that  involved  classification  t h e m a j o r s t r e n g t h was  points  The  of  strength  this policy  of  program  policy  I also concluded  of v u l n e r a b i l i t y with  is  the  i t s authorization. the  concessions p o l i c y ,  be i m p l e m e n t e d  and  to delay  from  over which the  a g e n c y has  r e s u l t s of  classification  the  level  little  situational o r no  influence.  a n a l y s i s suggest  of agency i n f l u e n c e  p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s i n a s p e c i f i c phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , c e r t a i n t y of a c h i e v i n g  p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s f o r  there  over and  degree of agency i n f l u e n c e or  involvement, there  degree of c e r t a i n t y of outcome. influence, there  When t h e  i s a low  outcome.  85  is a  a g e n c y has  the  that  F o r t h i s c a s e , i t w o u l d s e e m t h a t when t h e r e i s a  degree of  that  c h i e f weakness of t h i s p o l i c y i s t h a t i t s  i s a c o r r e l a t i o n between the  phase.  of  s u g g e s t e d t o be t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f  implementation i s vulnerable  The  weaknesses  the  a n a l y s i s of  c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e p r o g r a m can  variables  and  a n a l y s i s of  phases.  primary point  degree of u n c e r t a i n t y  operationalized.  the  in operational  b a s i c w e a k n e s s and  In t h e  f a c t o r s , and  case  degree of c e r t a i n t y f o r a c h i e v i n g  outcome o b j e c t i v e s the  strengths  In t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  r e c e i p t s p o l i c y , I concluded lies  the  for this  high a  low  degree of c e r t a i n t y of  high  For the agency d i r e c t o r , the problem is primarily legislative  legislative,  and  of revenue  recovery  t h e r e f o r e i s t o be s o l v e d  by  a u t h o r i z a t i o n of a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y .  the a u t h o r i z a t i o n of the p o l i c y , be u n d e r t a k e n  i t s operationalization  w h o l l y w i t h i n the agency,  guaranteeing  With could  theoretically  a s u c c e s s f u l outcome.  For the agency s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , the problem recovery i s exacerbated authorized.  In t h i s  of  revenue  i f the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y  s c e n a r i o , the superintendent  i s not  w o u l d be  faced  w i t h t h e c o n t i n u e d m a i n t e n a n c e o f a p r o g r a m f o r v/hich no operating  appropriation i s available.  attempted  to r e t a i n  a l l policy  proposing a contingency  T h e r e f o r e , he  has  o p t i o n s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y  s t r a t e g y i n the form  of a  by  concessions  policy. Until  now,  this  a n a l y s i s has  demonstrated  the impacts  operations.  For  the  not  of " p o l i c y  conclusively  f a i l u r e " on  superintendent's proposed  program contingency  s t r a t e g y s u b s t a n t i a t e d , the f a i l u r e of program r e c e i p t s have t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y  impact  t h e PUC  program.  would  F u r t h e r , i t must  be s h o w n t h a t t h e r e i s a g o o d c a u s e f o r a d o p t i n g a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y , t h a t t h e r e i s a good c h a n c e t h e p r o g r a m strategy w i l l contingency  fail.  policy  will  outcome o b j e c t i v e s . f o l l o w i n g chapter contingency  Finally,  i t must be d e m o n s t r a t e d  effectively  achieve c r i t i c a l  These i s s u e s w i l l  i n order to support  policy.  86  receipts that  the  policy  be t e s t e d i n t h e or d i s c r e d i t the  proposed  CHAPTER 6 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS  OF  REVENUE RECOVERY ALTERNATIVES 6.1  INTRODUCTION The  p u r p o s e of t h i s c h a p t e r i s to f o r e c a s t the i m p a c t s of  program o p e r a t i o n s concessionaire  two  contrasting  management and  revenue recovery. answer the  under the  operations  From t h e s e f o r e c a s t s  subsidiary questions  scenarios,  and  scenarios  of  w i t h o u t a mechanism of  i t will  be  possible  c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of  come t o a c o n c l u s i o n  to the  a b o u t an o p t i m u m p o l i c y  strategy. Section a n a l y s i s of  6.2  defines  three  i s s u e s e s s e n t i a l to  the p o l i c y problem: the  uncertainty  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s , the program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e , policy defined  i m p l e m e n t e d as w i t h i n the  The  following  i m p a c t s of a  the i m p a c t s of  the  in  the  failed concessions  a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y . These i s s u e s  a recommendation f o r a p r e f e r r e d  p r e m i s e s and  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n become t h e the  involved  are  framework of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate,  which concludes with strategy.  and  the  issues  supporting  policy  this  f o c u s of a p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s i n  sections.  87  Section that w i l l Sections  6.3 d e s c r i b e s  6.4  and 6.5  forecast  the i m p a c t s of program  and u n d e r c o n c e s s i o n a i r e  analysis  6.6  applies  to the i s s u e s  debate i n order  operation,  the r e s u l t s of the p o l i c y  first  defined  to substantiate  an o p t i m u m p o l i c y s t r a t e g y .  final  operations  the model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . Section  for  analysis  be a p p l i e d t o t h e l a t t e r o f t h e t w o p o l i c y p r e m i s e s .  w i t h o u t revenue recovery, using  the model of p o l i c y i m p a c t  subsidiary questions  impact  i n the s t r u c t u r e d  or d i s c r e d i t the This  and p r o b l e m  policy  recommendation  s e c t i o n a l s o addresses the statement f o r t h i s  analysis. 6.2  IDENTIFICATION OF In t h i s c h a p t e r ,  POLICY ISSUES the three  w a r r a n t s and r e b u t t a l s  that  comprise the p o l i c y debate are the p r i m a r y p o i n t of impact a n a l y s i s ; each i s framed criteria  to provide  f o r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of  on w h i c h t h e a l t e r n a t e p o l i c i e s  c a n be  evaluated.  The p o l i c y d e b a t e d e v e l o p e d f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s i s made up of p o l i c y r e l e v a n t concluding its  information,  policy claim.  three  p o l i c y sub-issues,  and  The p o l i c y d e b a t e i s i l l u s t r a t e d  e n t i r e t y on t h e f o l l o w i n g page i n F i g u r e  88  6.1.  in  a  POLICY RELEVANT  POLICY CLAIM (C)  INFORMATION  The d e c i s i o n to implement the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y f o r revenue recovery i s e x t e r n a l _ to the agency.  WARRANT It i s u n c e r t a i n whether the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l be implemented.  BACKING (B) Past l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s have f a i l e d and can f a i l again.  REBUTTAL (R) The d i r e c t o r i s confident of the .passage of legislation for program r e c e i p t s .  BACKING (B) The d i r e c t o r i s p r i v y to informal communications from the legislature.  FIGURE 6,1, STRUCTURE OF POLICY DEBATE  QUALIFIER (Q) THEREFORE  WARRANT (VI) The lock of revenue recovery w i l l have a significant negative impact on the PUC program,  REBUTTAL (R) The program w i l l not be significantly impacted,  REBUTTAL (R) Critical program objectives w i l l not be achieved.  BACKING (B) Critical program o b j e c t i v e s can be a c h i e v e s without revenue recovery,  The agency should implement a p o l i c y t h a t combines program - ^ r e c e i p t s and concession s t r a t e g i e s .  WARRANT (W) The agency s h o u l d implement a contingency p o l I c y t o ensure revenue recovery f o r the PUC i n the case t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s not authorized.  BACKING (B) An e x i s t i n g concessions policy could be adopted and c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s would be a c h i e v e d .  REBUTTAL (R) The agency cannot successful ly • implement the alternative policy.  BACKING (B) I t does not have the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e expertise or organizational capacity,  The d e b a t e existing policy of  i s initiated  p o l i c y , and i n l a t e r  alternatives.  policy relevant  over the f e a s a b i l i t y of the s t a g e s moves i n t o a d i s c u s s i o n  The o p e n i n g o f t h e d e b a t e — a  information  labelled  (I),  statement  reads:  The d e c i s i o n t o i m p l e m e n t t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s revenue r e c o v e r y i s e x t e r n a l t o t h e agency. This piece of information r e f e r s legislative authorization receive  that  used  policy  This piece of information  designed to support or d i s c r e d i t instead,  policy for  to the necessary  the program r e c e i p t s  t o be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d .  of  the revenue  must i s not  recovery policy;  a s s u m p t i o n s and p r e m i s e s b a s e d on t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n a r e  i n the formation of p o l i c y sub-issues. E a c h p o l i c y s u b - i s s u e i s made up o f f o u r e l e m e n t s : a  policy  w a r r a n t (W), p o l i c y  e a c h w a r r a n t and r e b u t t a l . or premise policy  that  rebuttal  rebuttal  ( R ) , and a b a c k i n g (B)  The p o l i c y  w a r r a n t i s an a s s u m p t i o n  supports the concluding p o l i c y claim. i s a contrasting  rebuttals  The  assumption o r premise from the  o r i g i n a l w a r r a n t ; t h e p o l i c y w a r r a n t and r e b u t t a l substance of the issue.  for  The b a c k i n g o f p o l i c y  a r e used t o s u b s t a n t i a t e  form the  w a r r a n t s and  t h e p r e m i s e s and a s s u m p t i o n s  made i n t h e c o u r s e o f t h e d e b a t e . The c o n c l u s i o n  of the p o l i c y debate i s the p o l i c y  T h i s i s a n o r m a t i v e s t a t e m e n t s u g g e s t i n g an o p t i m u m based policy  on t h e w a r r a n t s o f t h e d e b a t e claim,  and s u p p o r t i n g i s s u e s ,  90  issues. will  claim.  policy,  The e f f i c a c y o f t h e  n o t be t e s t e d  i n this  section.  Rather, they w i l l  be t e s t e d w i t h t e c h n i q u e s o f p o l i c y  i m p a c t a n a l y s i s i n the second h a l f of t h i s 6.2.1  Uncertainty The  Issue  f a i l u r e s of past l e g i s l a t i v e  a u t h o r i z a t i o n of program described  i n C h a p t e r Two.  initiatives  r e c e i p t s f o r t h e PUC  was  program  f o r the  the process of l e g i s l a t i v e  as t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y information  f o r the  I n C h a p t e r F i v e i t was  that the p r i m a r y p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y receipts policy  chapter.  were  pointed  out  program authorization,  in this  process.This  forms the b a s i s f o r the f i r s t p o l i c y i s s u e (see  F i g u r e 6.1).  The  combined  w a r r a n t and  backing f o r t h i s  issue  reads : I t i s u n c e r t a i n whether the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l be i m p l e m e n t e d [ b e c a u s e ] p a s t l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s have f a i l e d and c a n f a i l a g a i n . Such a p r e m i s e m i g h t r e f l e c t  the p o s i t i o n of  p e r s o n n e l concerned about the f e a s a b i l i t y strategy. the  In e f f e c t ,  program  receipts  the  of the chosen  t h i s premise forms the i n i t i a l  critique  i s b a s e d on a p o s i t i o n  be t a k e n by t h e d i r e c t o r o f t h e agency.  argument  policy of  policy.  The r e b u t t a l t o t h i s a r g u m e n t might  field  In c o n t r a s t  that i t i s u n c e r t a i n that the p o l i c y w i l l  implemented, the r e b u t t a l  that to  be  states:  The d i r e c t o r o f t h e a g e n c y i s c o n f i d e n t o f p a s s i n g t h e l e g i s l a t i o n a u t h o r i z i n g the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y [ b e c a u s e ] he i s p r i v y t o i n f o r m a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n s f r o m t h e legislature.  91  In t h e c o u r s e o f  interacting with  d i r e c t o r s o f t e n d e v e l o p a n e t w o r k of staff.  T h i s n e t w o r k may  about the p r o s p e c t s Therefore  willing At  study the  friendly  the passage of  a piece  to  of the  data  there  a u t h o r i z a t i o n of  information  of  legislation.  be p a s s e d t h a n t h e o p p o s i n g  gathering  was  no  period  conclusive  side  evidence  case  regarding the  Because the p r o b a b i l i t y of a u t h o r i z a t i o n cannot  d i s c r e d i t e i t h e r argument. uncertainties involved authorization assume t h a t  for this  t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s p o l i c y by  c o n c l u s i v e l y determined, i t i s d i f f i c u l t  (see  the  Yet,  i n the  given  to s u b s t a n t i a t e  the  f o u r step p r o c e s s of  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of  the  be  or  inherent legislative  s e c t i o n 4.3.1), i t seems r e a s o n a b l e  Policy Failure  to  policy i s uncertain.  Issue  s e c o n d p o l i c y a r g u m e n t makes a s u p p o s i t i o n a i m e d a t  i m p a c t of the f a i l u r e of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . backing  and  admit.  t h e end  legislature.  The  agency  legislators  g i v e the d i r e c t o r i n s i d e  policy will  ( A u g u s t 1986)  6.2.2  legislature,  t h e a r g u m e n t i s made t h a t t h e r e i s a h i g h e r d e g r e e o f  c e r t a i n t y t h a t the is  of  the  f o r t h i s argument  The  the  warrant  and  reads:  The l a c k o f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y m e c h a n i s m w i l l h a v e a s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t on t h e PUC p r o g r a m [ b e c a u s e ] c r i t i c a l p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s w i l l n o t be a c h i e v e d . T h i s s t a t e m e n t i s b a s e d on program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l  not  92  the  assumption that  be a u t h o r i z e d ,  the  resulting in  "the l a c k of a revenue r e c o v e r y assumes a worst  case  mechanism."  In e f f e c t i t  s c e n a r i o ; t h a t b e c a u s e t h e r e i s no  mechanism f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , n e c e s s a r y program o p e r a t i o n s will The  not  be u n d e r t a k e n  rebuttal  because of a l a c k of  funding.  to t h i s argument i s :  The p r o g r a m w i l l n o t be s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p a c t e d [because] c r i t i c a l p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s c a n be a c h i e v e d w i t h o u t a mechanism f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . Given possible  the i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d  to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t  Both these a s s e r t i o n s w i l l  of  The  third  p o l i c y proposed  Policy and  final  by t h e a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t .  warrant  from  impacts  answered.  debate i s s u e addressed  the p r e v i o u s i s s u e , are l e n t The  be  the  Also  Issue  t h i s argument are i n the form  analysis.  premises.  h a l f of t h i s chapter.  f a i l u r e on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s can  Contingency  study, i t i s  impact  a n a l y s i s , the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n i n g  policy  6.2.3  these p o l i c y  be t e s t e d w i t h p o l i c y  a n a l y s i s methods i n the second this  f o r t h i s case  and  The  the m o d i f i e d premises  of advocacy statements, to t e s t i n g  backing  by p o l i c y  and  of like  impact  read:  The a g e n c y s h o u l d i m p l e m e n t a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y t h a t would ensure revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the program i n the case of p o l i c y f a i l u r e [ b e c a u s e ] an e x i s t i n g c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y c o u l d be a d o p t e d and c r i t i c a l p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s w o u l d be a c h i e v e d w i t h t h i s p o l i c y . The  rebuttal  to t h i s argument i s :  93  The a g e n c y c a n n o t s u c c e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y [ b e c a u s e ] i t does n o t have t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e or o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y . This  r e b u t t a l takes into consideration  constraints was  identified  determined that  in  section  concessions policy.  the  In  agency r e s o u r c e s ( i . e . ,  f u n d i n g ) were n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e  policy  5.6.3.  the  The  Procurement B i l l ,  HB  section  the  5.6.3, i t  manpower  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of  a n a l y s i s of  w i l l also consider  organizational  and  the  i m p a c t s of a  the  legislative constraint  696  (see  section  modified imposed  by  5.6.2).  From the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s of t h i s t h i r d p o l i c y i s s u e , the  answers to the  final  thesis  be  These s u b s i d i a r y  can  developed.  i m p a c t s of a m o d i f i e d  subsidiary  questions for  this  questions concern  p o l i c y on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s  and  the  agency  operations. 6.2.4  Policy  Claim  B a s e d on  the  three  arguments t h a t :  (1) i t i s  whether the e x i s t i n g revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y w i l l implemented;  (2) t h a t  would s i g n i f i c a n t l y agency c o u l d  the  uncertain be  f a i l u r e of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n  i m p a c t the  (3) t h a t  the  implement a contingency p o l i c y to ensure  the  r e c o v e r y of revenue f o r the d e b a t e I make t h e  PUC  p r o g r a m ; and,  program, f o r the  purpose  f o l l o w i n g p o l i c y recommendation or c l a i m .  agency should implement a p o l i c y that combines both for  revenue recovery  operation). staff  of  (i.e.,  p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s and  Under t h i s p o l i c y , t h e  t h a t c o n c u r r e n t to the  94  strategies  concession  d i r e c t o r would advise  ongoing p r o c e s s of  The  gaining  his  l e g i s l a t i v e a p p r o v a l o f t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s p o l i c y t h e y may choose t o pursue c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n  of the r e s p e c t i v e  PUC  systems. This  policy claim  i s the f i r s t  problem statement of t h i s effective  attempt at answering the  t h e s i s (i.e.,  revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y ) .  what i s t h e most  The r e s u l t s o f t h e p o l i c y  i m p a c t a n a l y s i s w i l l t h e n be u s e d t o " t e s t " t h e m e r i t claim  along with  conclusion  of this  t h e a c c o m p a n y i n g p r e m i s e s , and make a  about t h e optimum p o l i c y s t r a t e g y  f o r revenue  recovery. 6.3 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS ELEMENTS In t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , t w o p r e m i s e s w e r e i d e n t i f i e d i n support of the claim  that  a combined revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i s  the  preferred  policy alternative.  the  l o g i c o f t h e s e p r e m i s e s , Cook and S c i o l i ' s m o d e l o f p o l i c y  impact a n a l y s i s w i l l premises. (i.e.,  be a p p l i e d  objectives,  measurement c r i t e r i a ) w i l l section  scenarios policy applied each  to scenarios  based on t h e s e  The e l e m e n t s o f t h i s p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s  program  through  For the purpose of t e s t i n g  6.2.3.  activities,  be d e v e l o p e d  Sections  by d e s c r i b i n g  alternatives.  program  performance  i n this  s e c t i o n 6.2.1  6.3 and 6.4 a r t i c u l a t e t h e  program a c t i v i t i e s  under the r e s p e c t i v e  P e r f o r m a n c e measurement c r i t e r i a  to the scenarios  i n order to forecast  policy.  95  model  a r e then  the impacts of  The  f i r s t i s s u e t o be a d d r e s s e d i s w h e t h e r o r n o t  program o b j e c t i v e s no  will  be a c h i e v e d , g i v e n  a s i t u a t i o n i n which  revenue recovery p o l i c y i s o p e r a t i o n a l .  a l s o f o c u s e s on  the  this  the  time given  recovery  i s implemented.  identical objectives  program a c t i v i t i e s ;  that  In t h e  and  d i f f e r e n c e between the  recovery,  The  second  achievement of program o b j e c t i v e s , scenario  one  issue only  a combined p o l i c y f o r revenue a n a l y s i s of  t h e s e two  measurement c r i t e r i a  two  critical  a n a l y s e s i s i n the  assumes the  will  issues,  be u s e d .  description  l a c k o f a method o f  the o t h e r assumes a c o m b i n a t i o n of revenue  The  of  revenue  recovery  policies. The intended  forecasts  to a s s e s s the  occuring. the  claim  preferred the  Instead  p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s are  p r o b a b i l i t y of  they are  applied  alternative.  The  on  the  forecasts  p r o g r a m and  Program  Objectives  Cook and  Scioli  outcome o b j e c t i v e s objectives  are  i m p a c t s of the (Cook and  given  a t e s t of  identify  and  external  1975,  two  procedural  the  the  also  the  impacts of  wide-sweeping p o l i c y mission  is  of  the  applied  to  policy  concession  t y p e s of program objectives.  they are  Outcome o b j e c t i v e s The  objectives:  Outcome  socio-physical  statements.  96  logic  agency.  a specific  p.97).  be  i m p a c t s of  to program o p e r a t i o n s ;  p r o g r a m on  Scioli,  the  will  not  events  that a combined revenue r e c o v e r y s t r a t e g y  f o r p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s , and  operations  the  as  subsidiary questions concerning  failure  6.3.1  made f o r t h e  three  "the  target" correspond objectives  to  identified  here are adapted from p o l i c y  p r o g r a m and  the  o b j e c t i v e s f o r the  agency:  (1) t o i n c r e a s e and e n h a n c e a c c e s s t o o p p o r t u n i t i e s (program p o l i c y g o a l ) ; (2) t o p r o v i d e agency);  within the  impacts  on  t h e a g e n c y , but  private tourist  to the  these  s c e n a r i o on The  operator.  state's tourism industry  c a t e g o r i e s w o u l d n o t be  S e c t i o n 6.2.3  second type  The  goals  PUC  program.  of  i f o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s and program o p e r a t i o n  procedural objectives identified  f o r the  the  attainment  a n a l y s i s a r e b o r r o w e d f r o m o p e r a t i o n s g o a l s and recovery  the  each  to the program; they concern  more g e n e r a l o b j e c t i v e s s u c h as c o n t i n u e d The  of  for  operated  this  They a r e : of s e r v i c e  (2) t o r e t u r n c a b i n r e n t a l r e v e n u e t o t h e p r o g r a m maintenance of the c a b i n s . first  are  revenue  (1) t o m a i n t a i n a s a f e and a p p r o p r i a t e s t a n d a r d u s i n g c o s t - e f f e c t i v e management m e t h o d s ;  The  or  of program o b j e c t i v e , p r o c e d u r a l  procedural o b j e c t i v e s i s necessary  achieved.  describes  measure the i m p a c t s  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s p e c t s of the program.  be  felt  these o b j e c t i v e s .  o b j e c t i v e s , are i n t e r n a l  to  mandate f o r  r a t h e r by t h e p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n i s t  c r i t e r i a u s e d t o f o r e c a s t and policy  recreational  for public safety (statutorial  (3) t o p r o v i d e s u p p o r t (agency p o l i c y g o a l ) . Policy  PUC  s c e n a r i o assumes t h a t the program w i l l  for  the  be  w i t h o u t a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism; t h e r e f o r e , t h i s  p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e does not 97  pertain.  6.3.2  Program  Activities  Program a c t i v i t i e s are the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e organizational effectively  be  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of program d e l i v e r y .  and e f f i c i e n t l y  an a g e n c y w i l l  and  these a c t i v i t i e s  How  a r e c a r r i e d o u t by  d e t e r m i n e whether or not program o b j e c t i v e s  will  achieved. In C h a p t e r F i v e , s e c t i o n  r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y and f a c i l i t y these operations w i l l  5.3 and 5.4 d e t a i l e d a s p e c t s o f maintenance.  In t h i s  be c o n s i d e r e d a s p r o g r a m  along with categories  section  activities,  o f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r f o r m a n c e and p r o g r a m  prioritization. Administrative available policy.  performance r e f e r s to the e x p e r t i s e  t o the agency t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e the revenue This aspect would i n c o r p o r a t e  the r e b u t t a l t o the  second p o l i c y p r e m i s e ; t h i s r e b u t t a l s u g g e s t s t h a t agency e x p e r t i s e would  recovery  the l a c k of  c o n s t r a i n s u c c e s s f u l implementation of  a modified policy. Program p r i o r i t i z a t i o n personnel resources assigned incorporates  r e f e r s to the l e v e l of f i s c a l to the program.  would c o n s t r a i n  successful  implementation. Traditionally  priority policy  also  a r e b u t t a l to the second p o l i c y p r e m i s e - t h a t a  lack of o r g a n i z a t i o n a l capacity policy  This aspect  and  in relation  scenario,  t h e p r o g r a m has been a s s i g n e d a l o w t o o t h e r agency programs.  this priority  98  may  rise  or f a l l .  D e p e n d i n g on t h e The n e x t  s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e s c r i t e r i a f o r t h e measurement o f p r i o r i t y levels,  along  program  activities.  6.3.3  w i t h p e r f o r m a n c e measurement c r i t e r i a f o r  Performance Measurement  other  Criteria  P e r f o r m a n c e m e a s u r e m e n t c r i t e r i a a r e u s e d t o i n d i c a t e how effectively  and e f f i c i e n t l y a g i v e n  may n o t be a c h i e v i n g  aspect  selected objectives.  used i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e two p o l i c y e x p l a i n s the r a t i o n a l e f o r the choice five  o f a p r o g r a m may o r Five c r i t e r i a w i l l  scenarios; this of these  be  section  criteria.  The  c r i t e r i aare: (1) number o f c a b i n (2) number o f c a b i n s  users; open t o t h e p u b l i c on a r e n t a l  (3) number o f c o m p l a i n t s (4) number o f s t a f f  basis;  about c a b i n c o n d i t i o n ;  maintenance hours p e r c a b i n ;  ( 5 ) amount o f f u n d s a v a i l a b l e f o r p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and development. In t h e p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n f i e l d ,  one o f t h e s i m p l e s t  i n d i c a t o r s o f p r o g r a m e f f e c t i v e n e s s i s t h e number o f p e r s o n s served  by a g i v e n  program.  In t h i s  case,  a forecast of  i n c r e a s e s o r d e c r e a s e s o f t h e numbers o f c a b i n u s e r s to  reflect  Similarly, an  whether o r not r e c r e a t i o n access  increased.  t h e number o f c a b i n s open t o t h e p u b l i c i s t a k e n as  i n d i c a t o r o f how w e l l r e c r e a t i o n a l a c c e s s  being  has been  i s assumed  objectives are  achieved. The  a r g u m e n t c o u l d be made ( a n d i s made a n n u a l l y by t h e  agency d i r e c t o r a t l e g i s l a t i v e 99  budget h e a r i n g s )  t h a t number o f  u s e r s and number o f f a c i l i t i e s  i s i n d i c a t i v e of the l e v e l of  s u p p o r t the agency i s p r o v i d i n g U.S.  Forest  with  has d e t e r m i n e d  industry.  that expenditures  t h e use o f the average p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l c a b i n  total per  Service  f o r the tourism  $29,000 p e r y e a r .  cabin  This  translates  of support f o r p r i v a t e sector  businesses.  T h e r e f o r e , numbers o f c a b i n  associated i n Alaska  i n t o $29,000 p e r y e a r , tourism  related  u s e r s and c a b i n s open  t o t h e p u b l i c w i l l be t a k e n t o i n d i c a t e how w e l l a g i v e n scenario  might a t t a i n  tourism  Measurement c r i t e r i a aimed a t p u b l i c  safety  The  policy  objectives.  f o r t h e number o f c o m p l a i n t s i s  objectives  and m a i n t e n a n c e  The number o f c o m p l a i n t s an a g e n c y r e c e i v e s  objectives.  about a f a c i l i t y i s  taken t o i n d i c a t e whether adequate maintenance s e r v i c e s a r e being provided.  I would a l s o  complaints reflects level  that  the r e l a t i v e  of r e p a i r i n a p u b l i c  increased  suggest that safety  facility  number o f c o m p l a i n t s ) ,  t h e number o f  of a f a c i l i t y .  As t h e  decreases ( r e s u l t i n g  i n an  i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o assume  the s a f e t y of such a f a c i l i t y  would a l s o  The number o f c o m p l a i n t s r e c e i v e d  decrease.  about c a b i n  condition  i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e number o f s t a f f h o u r s s p e n t i n t h e maintenance o f each c a b i n .  I t i s a s s u m e d t h a t when an  appropriate  amount o f m a i n t e n a n c e t i m e i s a l l o c a t e d p e r c a b i n  (as d e f i n e d  i n t h e PUC p r o g r a m p l a n ) , m a i n t e n a n c e and  objectives minimized.  will  be a c h i e v e d , and u s e r c o m p l a i n t s w i l l  Therefore,  increases  100  or decreases i n s t a f f  safety be  maintenance time given analysis  i s an i m p o r t a n t  the  of a l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s .  The  amount o f  funds a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n s  development i s a p a r t i a l measure of gives  indicator for  t o t h e PUC  program, r e l a t i v e  i n d i c a t o r s are o f t e n l e s s f o r m a l directives  the p r i o r i t y to other  i n nature,  from the agency e x e c u t i v e ,  the D i v i s i o n  programs. s u c h as  Other  informal  w h i c h i n some c a s e s  f l u c t u a t e g r e a t l y w i t h i n a s h o r t p e r i o d of time.  From  perspective  w i t h i n an  be  and  Because i n f o r m a l d i r e c t i v e s o f t e n defy  valid.  will  r e l y on  and  a g e n c y , s u c h i n d i c a t o r s can  can  a  reliable  this  a n n u a l a p p r o p r i a t i o n s as an i n d i c a t o r o f  case  program  priority. The  f i v e measurement c r i t e r i a  s c e n a r i o s f o r program a c t i v i t i e s in  the  f o l l o w i n g two  sections.  t h a t the purpose of these scientifically policy. choice 6.4  accurate  Instead,  they  among p o l i c y  will  be a p p l i e d  to  under each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e I t should  be a g a i n  recognized  i n d i c a t o r s i s n o t t o make a  p r e d i c t i o n of  the  i m p a c t s of  are chosen f o r t h e i r  ability  each to support  a  options.  POLICY SCENARIO: POLICY FAILURE This scenario i s derived  of a revenue recovery i m p a c t on  t h e PUC  legislation legislature.  from the warrant t h a t the  mechanism w i l l  program.  In t h i s  have s i g n i f i c a n t  p a s s e d House B i l l  negative  s c e n a r i o , i t i s assumed  f o r program r e c e i p t s f a i l s The  lack  adoption  by  the  that  state  s c e n a r i o a l s o assumes t h a t the p r e v i o u s l y 696  (Procurement B i l l ) 101  has  taken  effect  (this  legislation  prevents  agency c o l l e c t i o n o f f e e s w i t h o u t  prior  statutorial authorization). The  s c e n a r i o makes f o r e c a s t s f o r p r o g r a m a c t i v i t i e s a t  Nancy L a k e S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n  A r e a (NLSRA), and e x t r a p o l a t e s t h e  impacts  to the statewide  of these  activities  system of cabins.  T h i s u n i t was c h o s e n b e c a u s e t h e r e i s a h i s t o r y o f r e c r e a t i o n a l use  and management e x p e r i e n c e  because the p o t e n t i a l operated  through  concession The state  exists  facility  operations  w i t h t h e PUC p r o g r a m s i n c e 1984, to t r i p l e  rehabilitation,  have been p r o p o s e d  and b e c a u s e for this  unit.  m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n PUC s y s t e m s t h r o u g h o u t t h e  i s accessibility.  The NLSRA PUCs, a l o n g  Chena R i v e r SRA, c a n be r e a c h e d cabins  t h e number o f PUCs  w i t h those  i n the  by h i k i n g f r o m a r o a d w a y .  The  l o c a t e d on t h e K o d i a k a r c h i p e l a g o and i n S o u t h e a s t  A l a s k a c a n be r e a c h e d c o s t s a r e much h i g h e r , time.  o n l y by p l a n e  o r boat;  therefore  b o t h i n t e r m s o f money and  This v a r i a b l e w i l l  be r e c o g n i z e d  access  personnel  throughout t h i s s e c t i o n  i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y any e f f e c t s i t m i g h t have on p o l i c y  impact  forecasts. The 1987  t i m e h o r i z o n f o r t h e s e s c e n a r i o s w i l l be f r o m J u l y 1,  t o J u l y 1, 1989 ( f i s c a l  agency) .  years  1988 and 1989 f o r t h e  T h i s i s b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t g i v e n t h e s h o r t  h i s t o r y o f program development, p o l i c y impacts quickly  throughout the program.  102  w o u l d be  felt  6.4.1  Policy One  / Program  Performance  o f t h e f i r s t d i l e m m a s f a c e d by t h e D i v i s i o n i n t h e  s c e n a r i o o f "no  revenue recovery"  r e s e r v a t i o n system should use  fee i s not  being  concerns whether or  continue  t o be o p e r a t e d  charged f o r the  cabins.  not  the  even t h o u g h a  Presently,  cabin  u s e r s must r e s e r v e a c a b i n ahead of t i m e , a l o n g w i t h p a y i n g  a  fee  to  f o r t h e use  operate  the  vandalism; permit  of the  cabin users  could  Attendant  c o s t s of o p e r a t i n g other  the  option  be  "first-come,  vandalism.  result  will  s y s t e m w o u l d be  on  W h i l e t h i s may  increase  the  personnel  the  i n s t e a d open t h e c a b i n s  basis.  i n an  i n user  assume t h a t the o p e r a t i o n  on  save  personnel  conflicts  and  vandalism of  a  than to  the r e s e r v a t i o n  continued.  revenue recovery"  b a s i s , not  u n d e r t a k e n f o r the c a b i n s  s c e n a r i o would  safety standards.  volunteer  through  i s to d i s c o n t i n u e o p e r a t i o n of  Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s  program p l a n .  discourage  system.  Because i t i s cheaper to p r e v e n t  r e p a i r i t , we  irregular  held accountable  reservation  first-serve"  c o s t s , i t may  public  b e n e f i t of c o n t i n u i n g  w i t h t h i s o p t i o n are the  r e s e r v a t i o n / p e r m i t s y s t e m and  "no  The  system i s t h a t i t would most l i k e l y  system.  The  facility.  on  t h e minimum t o  achieve  M a i n t e n a n c e w o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n on the monthly b a s i s suggested  Park managers would l a b o r and  be  i n the  be f o r c e d t o r e l y  s e c o n d a r i l y on  most p r e s s i n g c i r c u m s t a n c e s  youth crews.  would agency p e r s o n n e l  103  i n the  an PUC  primarily Only  be  in  the  assigned  to  maintenance d u t i e s , t h i s  prioritization other  because of a g e n e r a l  de-  o f p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t r e l a t i v e t o  programs. The d e - p r i o r i t i z a t i o n  s t r a t e g y f o r program development i s  r e f l e c t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g excerpt  f r o m a r e p o r t by t h e C h i e f  R a n g e r o f NLSRA: . . . I f s u c h a [ f e e ] b i l l i s n o t f o r t h c o m i n g , t h e PUC p r o g r a m s h o u l d n o t be e x p a n d e d a t NLSRA. T h e r e a r e c e r t a i n l y h i g h e r p r i o r i t i e s i n t h e S u s i t n a Ranger D i s t r i c t . (AK DPOR 1986c) In  the past y e a r s ,  c a b i n p r o g r a m m a n a g e r s have managed t o  d i v e r t e x t r a money f r o m o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n p r o g r a m s seemed p r o m i s i n g its the  own  revenues.  because i t  t h a t t h e PUC p r o g r a m w o u l d one day Placed  i n the context  f o r e c l o s u r e of revenue generating  of s h r i n k i n g budgets,  o p t i o n s f o r the  program would f o r c e agency managers t o r e - p r i o r i t i z e program  from i t s o r i g i n a l  priority"  generate  low p r i o r i t y  PUC  the  p o s i t i o n t o a "no-  position.  To s u m m a r i z e p r o g r a m a c t i v i t i e s u n d e r t h i s s c e n a r i o , t h e r e s e r v a t i o n system would continue  t o be o p e r a t e d ,  s e r v i c e s w o u l d be p r o v i d e d on a m i n i m a l w o u l d be g i v e n a l o w e r 6.4.2  Policy  priority  I m p a c t s on P r o g r a m  include  activities  b a s i s , and t h e p r o g r a m  f o r the a l l o c a t i o n  funding.  of the p r e v i o u s l y  on p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s .  The i n d i c a t o r s  t h e number o f c a b i n u s e r s , number o f c a b i n s  104  of  Objectives  This s e c t i o n f o r e c a s t s the impacts described  maintenance  open,  number o f c o m p l a i n t s  about t h e c o n d i t i o n o f the c a b i n ,  m a i n t e n a n c e h o u r s , and a n n u a l  staff  budget f o r t h e program.  G i v e n t h e s c e n a r i o o f no r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y ,  t h e numbers o f  c a b i n u s e r s a t NLSRA i n FY 88 a n d 89 w o u l d m o s t l i k e l y  remain  t h e s a m e , i_f a l l PUCs p r e s e n t l y o p e n w e r e t o r e m a i n o p e n i n that period. foundations  Yet, given described  i n t h e NLSRA PUC P r o g r a m R e p o r t (AK DPOR  1986), i t i s most l i k e l y significantly  the inadequate c o n d i t i o n of cabin  t h a t t h a t l e a s t one c a b i n  damaged by t h e w i n t e r  freeze-thaw  w o u l d be  cycle.  Further,  because o f budget c o n s t r a i n t s , i t i s assumed t h a t a significantly Therefore,  damaged c a b i n  this  scenario  w o u l d n o t be r e p a i r e d o r r e - o p e n e d .  f o r e c a s t s a d r o p i n t h e number o f  NLSRA PUC u s e r s w i t h t h e c l o s i n g o f a t l e a s t o n e c a b i n f o r safety  reasons. The  number o f c a b i n s  open s t a t e w i d e  would a l s o d e c l i n e ;  i n June o f 1986 t h e d i r e c t o r o f t h e D i v i s i o n w r o t e t h e C o m m i s s i o n e r o f t h e DNR t h a t : . . . l a c k i n g t h e means t o r e c o v e r p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s , t h e D i v i s i o n w i l l be f o r c e d by f i s c a l c o n s t r a i n t s t o o p e r a t e a much s m a l l e r number o f c a b i n s t h a n e n v i s i o n e d w i t h l e g i s l a t i v e support. (AK DPOR, 1986b) Of  the t h i r t e e n cabins  four cabins  a r e new.  p r e s e n t l y being  Therefore,  operated,  d e t e r i o r a t i o n may a l s o  only force  t h e c l o s u r e o f one o r t w o o t h e r c a b i n s , w i t h a t o t a l o f t h r e e being  closed statewide  Consistent  with this,  approximately  with  t h e i n c l u s i o n o f t h e NLSRA  c a b i n use s t a t e w i d e  system.  would d e c l i n e  by o n e t h i r d i n FY 88 a n d FY 8 9 , a s a l m o s t o n e  105  third  of the cabins  were c l o s e d  i n this period  f o r safety  reasons. Concurrent with  t h e d e c r e a s e i n t h e number o f c a b i n s  open  t o t h e p u b l i c w o u l d be t h e number o f u s e r s o f t h e c a b i n s . scenario  forecasts a correlation  number o f c a b i n s  between the decrease i n the  open t o t h e p u b l i c , and l e v e l s o f p u b l i c u s e .  Assuming that o n e - t h i r d assumption w i l l  This  of a l l the cabins  are closed, the  be made t h a t u s e l e v e l s w o u l d a l s o d e c r e a s e by  one-third. T h i s d e c r e a s e i n t h e number o f u s e r s and number o f c a b i n s operated s i g n i f i e s that while  program o b j e c t i v e s  r e c r e a t i o n a l a c c e s s and t o u r i s m being  f o r enhancing  support are being  achieved t o a l e s s e r degree.  Also,  met, t h e y a r e  i t indicates a  of program c o n t r a c t i o n ,  as compared t o the e x p a n s i o n a r y  seen i n the f i r s t  years of program  three  a s t h e amount o f s t a f f  of  time,  resulting  to remain unattended  i n an i n c r e a s e d  i m p a c t o f t h e "no r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y " objectives only  i s that  partially  would  maintenance hours  With the decrease i n s t a f f maintenance hours, conditions are l i k e l y  trend  operation.  C o m p l a i n t s about t h e c o n d i t i o n of c a b i n s slightly  trend  increase  decrease.  substandard  f o r a longer  period  number o f c o m p l a i n t s . scenario  on  The  procedural  m a i n t e n a n c e and s a f e t y o b j e c t i v e s w o u l d be  met i n t h e s h o r t  term.  The r e s u l t o f t h e m i n i m u m a c h i e v e m e n t o f m a i n t e n a n c e o b j e c t i v e s i s that continued  facility 106  attrition  would i n the  long term  " w h i t t l e down" t h e s i z e o f t h e c a b i n s y s t e m .  implication is critical development under t h i s  to the assessment of scenario.  Continued  This  program attrition  could  f o r c e the r e t i r e m e n t of c a b i n s to the p o i n t that the agency would  de-prioritize  the program t o a "non-program" s t a t u s .  The  f o r the d e - p r i o r i t i z a t i o n of the program i s  sentiment  already evident Ranger of  i n the D i v i s i o n .  From t h e memo by t h e  Chief  NLSRA:  P r i o r t o FY 8 7 . . . o v e r $ 5 0 0 0 h a s g o n e i n t o t h e r e f u r b i s h i n g o f PUCs 1 t h r o u g h 4. But g i v e n t h e r e c e n t b u d g e t c u t s , e v e n t h e c r i t i c a l f o u n d a t i o n r e p a i r s needed on t h e f o u r c a b i n s on Nancy L a k e i s i n doubt...There a r e c e r t a i n l y h i g h e r p r i o r i t i e s i n the S u s i t n a Ranger D i s t r i c t f o r t h e use o f f u n d s . P r i o r i t i e s s u c h as r e p l a c i n g r o t t e n [ p i c n i c ] t a b l e s and b e n c h e s w i l l b e n e f i t a much l a r g e r s e g m e n t o f t h e p u b l i c t h a n a d d i n g another c a b i n o r two t o t h e PUC s y s t e m . (AK DPOR, 1 9 8 6 c ) Two  c o n c l u s i o n s c a n be made a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f t h e  program without  a mechanism f o r revenue r e c o v e r y .  c o n c l u s i o n s can  be a p p l i e d t o t h e  (impacts to  of program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e  evaluate  the second premise of the  First,  the impacts  the program. without years  third  The  p r o g r a m has  revenue recovery,  without  will  and  not  failure),  i n FY  questionable  88 and  89.  be i m m e d i a t e l y  However, a f t e r  used debate.  and  minimally  that time  be a c h i e v e d  to  years  f o r another  Outcome o b j e c t i v e s  i f p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s can  be  significant  f o r two  c o u l d be o p e r a t e d  107  and  structured policy  p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e p r o g r a m w o u l d be achieved  These  subsidiary question  been o p e r a t e d  program r e c e i p t s .  PUC  i t is at a l l .  two  Secondly, continued d e t e r i o r a t i o n of the f a c i l i t i e s f o r c e agency managers t o weigh the advantages o f the  program.  program,  An a l t e r n a t e  strategy  as was o r i g i n a l l y  would  would  discontinuing  be t o p r i v a t i z e t h e  p r o p o s e d by f i e l d  staff.  Yet,  advanced d e t e r i o r a t i o n might d i s c o u r a g e p o t e n t i a l concessionaire  operators.  This  suggests that  c o n c e s s i o n s t r a t e g y c a n be i m p l e m e n t e d , program development foreclosed  by  will  t h e more l i k e l y  n o t be s i g n i f i c a n t l y s t u n t e d  a that  or  attrition.  To c o n c l u d e by a n s w e r i n g t h e t h i r d PUC p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s  and d e v e l o p m e n t  significantly effected  i n the short  subsidiary  the impacts of f a c i l i t y  o t h e r revenue recovery  question,  w o u l d n o t be  term i n the case that the  program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s not a u t h o r i z e d . future,  the e a r l i e r  Yet, i n the mid-term  d e t e r i o r a t i o n might  s t r a t e g i e s to the point  foreclose  of n e c e s s i t a t i n g  abandonment o f t h e p r o g r a m . 6.5  POLICY SCENARIO: This  the  scenario  i s b a s e d on t h e w a r r a n t and b a c k i n g t h a t  revenue recovery p o l i c y i n c l u d e  contingency basis critical that  CONTINGENCY POLICY  concession operations  on a  because i t would ensure the achievement of  program o b j e c t i v e s .  The r e b u t t a l t o t h i s w a r r a n t i s  the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y cannot succeed because of a l a c k of  administrative This  expertise  scenario  or o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  assumes t h a t  capacity.  as t h e n o n - a u t h o r i z a t i o n  of  t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s p o l i c y becomes i m m a n e n t , t h e d i r e c t o r o f 108  the  a g e n c y makes t h e d e c i s i o n  the  program as a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y .  superintendents, approval, profit  t o adopt c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of F o r agency  t h i s w o u l d mean t h a t t h e y w o u l d have t h e  i f not encouragement  cooperating  associations  This scenario w i l l  t o b e g i n f o r m a t i o n o f t h e nondescribed  f o c u s on p r o g r a m  i n section  5.4.1.  a c t i v i t i e s and  i m p a c t s f o r t h e PUC s y s t e m a t NLSRA, a n d p r o v i d e an o v e r v i e w o f p r o g r a m a c t i v i t i e s and i m p a c t s s t a t e w i d e . The p r o c e s s o f i n c o r p o r a t i o n  would take p l a c e i n the  s e c o n d h a l f o f FY 87 ( J a n u a r y - J u n e 1 9 8 7 ) , w i t h t h e c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s assuming program o p e r a t i o n s e a r l y i n FY 88.  As i n s e c t i o n 6.3, t h e t i m e h o r i z o n  FY 88 a n d FY 89 ( J u l y 1 9 8 7 - J u l y 6.5.1 P o l i c y  / Program  Before exploring the  for this  1989).  Performance program  activities  under t h i s  scenario,  i s s u e o f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  c a p a c i t y must be a d d r e s s e d . director  I am a s s u m i n g t h a t a l t h o u g h t h e  w o u l d g i v e t h e "go-ahead"  t o agency  superintendents to  begin development of n o n - p r o f i t c o n c e s s i o n a i r e s , be a m a n d a t o r y left  scenario i s  directive.  i t would not  I n s t e a d , e a c h s u p e r i n t e n d e n t w o u l d be  t o c o n s i d e r t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e i r management  unit,  and d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r o r n o t t o p r o c e e d w i t h t h e c o n t i n g e n c y policy.  109  Two f a c t o r s m i g h t make a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t h e s i t a n t : a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e , and t h e c a p a c i t y o f h i s / h e r u n i t t o implement the concessions  policy.  T h a t t h e a g e n c y has t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e i s d e m o n s t r a t e d i n t h e i n c r e a s i n g number o f c o n c e s s i o n  operations  and  c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s t h a t have been f a c i l i t a t e d  and  1986.  out  t o b i d " o r " c l o s e d on" f o r c o n c e s s i o n  I n t h a t p e r i o d , f o u r c o n t r a c t s have e i t h e r  facilities  i n Alaska State H i s t o r i c  i n 1985  been " p u t  operation of the  Parks.  A l s o , t h e a g e n c y has  c o n t r a c t e d w i t h one c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n f o r t h e s a l e o f i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t e r i a l s , and p r o v i d e d t e c h n i c a l s u p p o r t  f o r two  "Friends of State Parks" o r g a n i z a t i o n s . Regional concession provides spread  and a r e a o f f i c e s a r e t h e p r i m a r y  operators, w h i l e the c e n t r a l  technical  evenly  support.  throughout  that  For t h i s  Division  p r o g r a m s have been  area  i s f a i r l y experienced  scenario, i t i s reasonable  there i s adequate e x p e r t i s e t o a d m i n i s t e r  o p e r a t i o n o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m . discredits  the r e b u t t a l  Moreover, t h i s  The s e c o n d r e b u t t a l  regular  and t h e i n these t o assume  concession assumption  t h a t there i s not adequate  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e to operate  area o f f i c e s  office  r e g i o n a l and a r e a o f f i c e s  s t a f f o f e a c h management arrangements.  Concessions  contact f o r  to f a c i l i t a t e  concerns  t h e program.  t h e c a p a c i t y o f r e g i o n a l and  concession  a s s i g n m e n t s and e v e r p r e s e n t  110  o p e r a t i o n s , i n l i g h t of fiscal  constraints.  These  factors  suggest that i n order  f o r concession  operations  t o be  d e v e l o p e d , a g e n c y m a n a g e r s w o u l d have t o t e m p o r a r i l y d e prioritize  other  programs or p r o j e c t s .  assumes t h a t such t r a d e - o f f s w i l l  While t h i s  scenario  be made, t h e p r e v i o u s  sentence v a l i d a t e s the r e b u t t a l that concession  operations  m i g h t n o t be i m p l e m e n t e d b e c a u s e o f a l a c k o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l capacity.  Therefore,  must be q u a l i f i e d organizational  any a r g u m e n t s  by r e c o g n i z i n g  f o r a contingency  policy  the c o n s t r a i n t s of  capacity.  Once an a g e n c y m a n a g e r g i v e s a h i g h p r i o r i t y t o t h e development of concession process  as d e s c r i b e d  the process over  operations,  they would s e t about the  i n s e c t i o n 5.4.1.  I t i s assumed t h a t  o f i n c o r p o r a t i o n , program o p e r a t i o n s  by t h e n o n - p r o f i t i n t h e f i r s t  would  role  operations.  taken  h a l f o f FY 88.  M a i n t e n a n c e a c t i v i t i e s w o u l d be d i s t i n c t l y under c o n c e s s i o n  be  after  different  The a g e n c y w o u l d p l a y a m i n i m a l  i n maintenance o p e r a t i o n s , only p r o v i d i n g  cabin  i n s p e c t i o n s and s u p e r v i s i o n o f r e h a b i l i t a t i o n p r o j e c t s a s necessary. regular  Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s  w o u l d be p r o v i d e d  b a s i s by t h e c o n c e s s i o n a i r e ,  use o f v o l u n t e e r  w i t h an e m p h a s i s on t h e  crews.  By u s i n g v o l u n t e e r  c r e w s , t h e n o n - p r o f i t w o u l d be a b l e t o  s a v e m a i n t e n a n c e l a b o r c o s t s and a l l o c a t e t h o s e rehabilitation from  on a  of other  the c h i e f ranger  cabins.  For i n s t a n c e ,  savings  i n the report  o f NLSRA, s e v e n u n u s e d c a b i n s a r e  111  to the  recommended f o r r e h a b i l i t a t i o n and i n c l u s i o n system  i n t o t h e PUC  (AK DPOR 1986). The d e v e l o p m e n t o f n o n - p r o f i t c o n c e s s i o n  operations  would  s i g n i f y a s h i f t by t h e a g e n c y t o make t h e p r o g r a m a h i g h priority  without  allocating  maintain  the program.  a l o t o f agency r e s o u r c e s  This s h i f t  from the present  to  low p r i o r i t y  of t h e p r o g r a m i s one o f t h e i m p a c t s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e n e x t section. 6.5.2 P o l i c y  I m p a c t s on P r o g r a m  Objectives  This s e c t i o n measures the i m p a c t s of the p r e v i o u s l y described  activities  on p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s .  i m p a c t s i n c l u d e t h e number o f c a b i n u s e r s , open f o r p u b l i c u s e , number o f c o m p l a i n t s  The i n d i c a t o r s o f  number o f c a b i n s about  cabin  c o n d i t i o n s , s t a f f m a i n t e n a n c e h o u r s , and f u n d s a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n  and d e v e l o p m e n t .  Indicators of p o l i c y e f f e c t i v e n e s s f o r achieving o b j e c t i v e s f o r enhancing r e c r e a t i o n a l access  program  and s u p p o r t i n g t h e  tourism  i n d u s t r y i n c l u d e t h e number o f c a b i n s open t o t h e  public,  and t h e a n n u a l number o f c a b i n  Given the s c e n a r i o of concession cabins  operated  cabins  a l r e a d y open  stabilization, the u n i t .  users. o p e r a t i o n s , t h e number o f  a t NLSRA c o u l d p o t e n t i a l l y would provide  of other  cabins i n  t h a t i n FY 87, t h e s e  cabins  a c c r u e an i n c o m e o f $ 4 8 0 0 ( b a s e d on o c c u p a n c y r a t e s f r o m FY  112  The  adequate revenue f o r t h e i r  and f o r t h e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n  The a g e n c y e s t i m a t e s  d o u b l e by FY 89.  will  86).  The c o s t o f s t a b i l i z i n g  t h e f o u n d a t i o n s on PUCs 1  through  4 i s e s t i m a t e d a t $1245 f o r m a t e r i a l s and $1944 f o r l a b o r ; totalling  $3189 (AK DPOR, 1 9 8 6 c ) .  Assuming the n o n - p r o f i t c o u l d  h a l v e l a b o r c o s t s w i t h v o l u n t e e r work, t h e r e m a i n i n g could  be a l l o c a t e d  to r e h a b i l i t a t i o n  of other  Two c o n s t r a i n t s t o c a b i n r e h a b i l i t a t i o n time" i n building  a bank a c c o u n t  e x p e n s e s and t h e s e a s o n a l  halt  sufficient  money  cabins. are the " l a g  to cover p r o j e c t  to construction projects.  T h e r e f o r e , i t i s assumed t h a t t h e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n  of c a b i n s  w o u l d n o t be c o m p l e t e d u n t i l e a r l y i n FY 9 0 , t o w a r d the  construction  t h e end o f  season.  W i t h t h e d o u b l i n g o f t h e n u m b e r o f c a b i n s i n t h e NLSRA system, the t o t a l  number o f c a b i n u s e r s  would a l s o double.  This  a s s u m e s t h a t o c c u p a n c y r a t e s w o u l d r e m a i n t h e same (approximately  30% occupancy p e r year)  during  this  time  period.  R e l a t i v e t o t h e number o f c a b i n s open and t h e number o f cabin users i n other s t a t e park be  t h e e x c e p t i o n r a t h e r than  program expansion can  unimproved f a c i l i t i e s ,  building  The o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r  operator  relative  w i t h a l a r g e number o f  t o o t h e r park  units.  These  c a n be i m p r o v e d a t a f r a c t i o n o f t h e c o s t o f  a new f a c i l i t y ,  g r o w t h o f t h e NLSRA The  the r u l e .  a t NLSRA a r e e x c e p t i o n a l b e c a u s e t h e a g e n c y  provide the concession  facilities  u n i t s , t h e NLSRA s c e n a r i o w o u l d  t h e r e f o r e p r o v i d i n g f o r the quick  system.  number o f c a b i n s o p e r a t e d  s t a t e w i d e , and t h e number  of c a b i n users would i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y 113  under the c o n c e s s i o n  scenario.  Most c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s w o u l d be p r i m a r i l y  concerned w i t h s t a b i l i z i n g operations,  while slowly  and d e v e l o p i n g c o n t i n u i t y i n  saving  Indicators of p o l i c y  revenues f o r future expansion.  effectiveness f o r achieving  m a i n t e n a n c e and s a f e t y o b j e c t i v e s i n c l u d e  t h e number o f  i n c i d e n t s o f v a n d a l i s m , c o m p l a i n t s on c a b i n c o n d i t i o n , a n d staff  maintenance hours. It  i tuncertain  i f t h e number o f u s e r c o m p l a i n t s w o u l d  r e m a i n t h e same o r f l u c t u a t e .  In t h i s  s c e n a r i o i t i s assumed  t h a t t h e s e f i g u r e s w o u l d r e m a i n t h e same a s i n p r e s e n t day operations. facilities  The amount o f h o u r s e x p e n d e d  i n the maintenance of  w o u l d show a l a r g e d e c r e a s e , a f t e r t h e i n i t i a l  output f o r the i n c o r p o r a t i o n of the cooperating The of  final  i n d i c a t o r o f p o l i c y e f f e c t i v e n e s s i s t h e amount  funds a v a i l a b l e  f o r program  Funding f o r the program  o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t .  has t r a d i t i o n a l l y  d i v e r s i o n o f funds from o t h e r agency concessions scenario,  t h e program  a r e g u l a r i n f u s i o n of funds. first  associations.  been b a s e d on t h e  accounts.  f o r the f i r s t  A t NLSRA,  In t h e t i m e w o u l d have  theoretically  i n the  y e a r o f c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , more money w o u l d be  a l l o c a t e d t o m a i n t e n a n c e and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n h i s t o r y of the program.  than throughout the  S i m i l a r l y , other cabin  systems  t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t a t e w o u l d have t h e b e n e f i t o f r e g u l a r i n f u s i o n s of revenue r e c o v e r e d from program  114  operations.  Three c o n c l u s i o n s can concern and  be d r a w n f r o m t h i s s c e n a r i o .  the f u t u r e of the program under c o n c e s s i o n  the t h i r d  the agency.  concerns  the impacts  These c o n c l u s i o n s w i l l  structured policy The  first  a l s o be a p p l i e d t o t h e  operations, and  use  tourism  operations.  The  be a c h i e v e d  s h o r t term  not  significant,  Secondly,  the mid-  and  long-term  under t h i s  scenario i s bright.  concession  managers c o u l d t u r n t h e i r  the outcome of t h i s  t h a t the agency s h o u l d  The  p o l i c y as a c o n t i n g e n c y  short-term  impacts  w o u l d be  o p e r a t i o n s are  positive.  stabilized,  a t t e n t i o n t o the  scenario supports  implementation  expansion  d e l a y s w o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y of developing  The  this policy,  of  Staff  time  a negative  would  i n delays to  negative impacts  caused  s m a l l compared to the  p r i v a t e s e c t o r o p e r a t i o n of the  115  the  s t r a t e g y w o u l d have  d i v e r t e d from other p r o j e c t s , r e s u l t i n g  impacts  public,  f u t u r e f o r the program  on a g e n c y o p e r a t i o n s .  development of these p r o j e c t s . these  concession  implement a modified  concession  be  of  (from the p o l i c y debate i n the f i r s t h a l f of  g i v e n the f o l l o w i n g q u a l i f i e r .  to  impacts  systems.  Finally,  chapter)  As  and  i n the s c e n a r i o  seen i n t h e numbers o f c a b i n s open t o t h e although  warrant  of  i n d u s t r y support, p u b l i c s a f e t y ,  levels,  of c a b i n  premise  final  debate.  maintenance would e a s i l y  of concession  the f i n a l  on  c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t program o b j e c t i v e s f o r  r e c r e a t i o n access, facility  operation,  of concession o p e r a t i o n  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s f o r t h e t h e s i s , and the  Two  have the by  positive program.  In the l o n g r u n , the agency w i l l have a minimum amount of t i m e i n v o l v e d i n t h e management o f t h e p r o g r a m , w h i l e high 6.6  returns  i n terms of p u b l i c  SUMMARY AND  producing  service.  CONCLUSIONS  In the f i r s t h a l f of t h i s c h a p t e r ,  a policy claim  introduced  t h a t s u g g e s t e d an o p t i m u m p o l i c y f o r  recovery.  This p o l i c y c l a i m  which are  staff  a l s o be  considered  was  b a s e d on  was  revenue  three p o l i c y warrants,  as p r e m i s e s .  Each of  these  w a r r a n t s were b a l a n c e d w i t h a c o u n t e r v a i l i n g a r g u m e n t ,  the  e f f e c t of which, i f s u b s t a n t i a t e d ,  policy  would d i s c r e d i t the  claim. In the  second h a l f of  the  chapter,  t e c h n i q u e s of  i m p a c t a n a l y s i s w e r e a p p l i e d t o t h e s e c o n d and of  the  p o l i c y debate.  results  of  the  analysis,  the  first  the r e s u l t s of  debate issue w i l l  w i t h the u n c e r t a i n t y  receipts,  and  was  uncertainty  will  warrants  apply  to evaluate  those  the  policy claim.  Before reviewing  The  s e c t i o n , we  to each p o l i c y debate i n order  credibility  deals  In t h i s  third  policy  not  the p o l i c y i m p a c t be  addressed.  of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of  included  i n the  i s s u e a d d r e s s e s the  This  issue  program  p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s .  p r o b a b i l i t y that  l e g i s l a t i o n necessary to o p e r a t i o n a l i z e the  policy will  not  be  passed. Section authorization  5.3.1  showed t h a t  the  i s to a l a r g e extent  116  p r o c e s s of p o l i c y outside  of agency  influence  and  therefore  that  the four  vulnerable  to veto.  step process of l e g i s l a t i v e  " w e a k e s t " o r most v u l n e r a b l e the  inherent  In that  uncertainty  section I concluded a u t h o r i z a t i o n i sthe  p o i n t of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n because o f  involved.  B a s e d on t h i s r e a s o n i n g ,  i n t h i s chapter  I concluded  that  a l t h o u g h t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a u t h o r i z a t i o n c a n n o t be c o n c l u s i v e l y determined,  i t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t t h e  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s u n c e r t a i n . Therefore, as  the f i r s t  supporting The  warrant i s accepted without  the p o l i c y  the program would i n c u r s i g n i f i c a n t  i m p a c t s because c r i t i c a l  that  claim.  s e c o n d w a r r a n t p r o p o s e s t h a t l a c k i n g a means o f  revenue recovery,  achieved.  i s based on t h e a s s u m p t i o n  the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y would f a i l  determined that  negative  p r o g r a m o b j e c t i v e s w o u l d n o t be  The w a r r a n t i n t h i s i s s u e  Interestingly,  t o be a d o p t e d .  i n t h e p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s i t was  there  w o u l d n o t be s i g n i f i c a n t i m p a c t s on t h e  p r o g r a m w i t h o u t a means o f r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y , Yet,  qualification  i n the mid-term f u t u r e , f a c i l i t y  in  the short  term.  d e t e r i o r a t i o n might  force  agency managers t o w e i g h t h e advantages o f d i s c o n t i n u i n g t h e progam. This forecast supports the warrant that the lack of a revenue recovery progam.  This  consider  adopting  mechanism w i l l  forecast  s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p a c t t h e PUC  a l s o s u g g e s t s t h a t agency managers  a contingency p o l i c y i n the case of the  f a i l u r e of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . 117  This  warrant i s  therefore impacts  accepted, w i t h  w o u l d be f e l t  debate  warrant  p o l i c y i s inadequate,  be i m p l e m e n t e d , u n t i l now policy  that  significant  i n the mid-term f u t u r e of the program.  While the second existing  the q u a l i f i c a t i o n  and  suggests  that  a contingency p o l i c y should  t h e i s s u e o f "when" t h e  s h o u l d be i m p l e m e n t e d has  the  contingency  been u n a d d r e s s e d .  Given  the impact  forecast  for policy failure  short  impacts,  i t w o u l d seem t h a t t h e a g e n c y has  term  option  o f a d o p t i n g a " w a i t and  policy.  The  see" approach  to a  significant  be d i s c u s s e d  t h i r d warrant  contingency  further in following  advocates  the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n  m o d i f i e d p o l i c y : t h a t a c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y be a d o p t e d contingency  basis.  The  r e s u l t s of the impact  t h e w a r r a n t and  the backing statement  operation  achieve c r i t i c a l  could  with qualification. be p r e p a r e d  the  i s s u e o f when a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y i s s u e s h o u l d  implemented w i l l The  s u g g e s t s no  that  The  that a  paragraphs. of a on  analysis  a support  concessions  progam o b j e c t i v e s , a l t h o u g h  qualification  i s t h a t t h e a g e n c y must  to p r o v i d e adequate r e s o u r c e s to implement a  contingency p o l i c y .  Given  the p r e s e n t  budget c o n s t r a i n t s ,  a  c o m m i t t m e n t t o c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n w o u l d be a t the c o s t o f s h o r t - t e r m d e l a y s to the development of o t h e r agency  projects. In l i g h t of the above q u a l i f i c a t i o n ,  and  the i s s u e  "when" t o i m p l e m e n t a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y , i s t o c l a r i f y policy  claim  t h a t "the agency s h o u l d implement a p o l i c y  118  be  of the that  combines both mechanisms the  of revenue recovery."  agency u n d e r t a k e t h i s a c t i o n i m m e d i a t e l y ,  a " w a i t and s e e " a p p r o a c h .  Postponing  I recommend i n s t e a d of  that  taking  contingency planning f o r  p r o g r a m d e v e l o p m e n t i n v i t e s r e a c t i v e p o l i c y d e v e l o p m e n t , and r e a c t i v e p o l i c y development i n v i t e s  the f o r e c l o s u r e of  p r e v i o u s l y v i a b l e o p t i o n s f o r revenue recovery.  Where t h e r e  may  have been a t one t i m e t h e o p t i o n t o i m p l e m e n t two r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y mechanisms, deteriorating shelve  i n a time of f i s c a l  facilities,  t h e o n l y o p t i o n a v a i l a b l e may  Realistically,  s u c h an a p p r o a c h may  situation.  managers  I t does e n t a i l  scenario.  options that could failure.  a committment  a conscious e f f o r t  of program receipts  response to t h i s  c o u l d produce a wide a r r a y of c o n t i n g e n c y  be q u i c k l y o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d  Proactive policy  i n the case of  d e v e l o p m e n t above a l l  by t h e a g e n c y , b u t n o t n e c e s s a r i l y  c o n t i n u a t i o n of a program at a l l c o s t s . development, agency managers  entails  to the  With p r o a c t i v e  would commit  number o f p o l i c y o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e In  by t h e  to t h i n k t h r o u g h the f a i l u r e of the program  This e f f o r t  entail  strategies.  be c o n s t r a i n e d  p o l i c y , and d e v e l o p a s t r a i g h t - f o r w a r d  policy  be t o  d e v e l o p m e n t does not n e c e s s a r i l y  immediate implementation of concessions  fiscal  or  the program. Proactive policy  the  crisis,  policy  to broadening the  to a given  program.  summary, I recommend a p r o a c t i v e a p p r o a c h t o p o l i c y  development, meaning  the adoption of a concession p o l i c y f o r  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n on a c o n t i n g e n c y b a s i s .  A combined p o l i c y  be t h e most e f f e c t i v e means o f e n s u r i n g t h e c o n t i n u e d 119  would  operation  and d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m . for  With a contingency  revenue recovery, the v u l n e r a b i l i t y  failed  program r e c e i p t s  initiative  of the program  option to a  w o u l d be r e d u c e d , and t h e  r e c o v e r y o f r e v e n u e f o r o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t w o u l d ensured.  Such c e r t a i n t y  i s necessary  i f the program i s to  c o n t i n u e t o s u r v i v e and have t h e o p p o r t u n i t y  120  be  to  flourish.  CHAPTER 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 7.1  INTRODUCTION T h i s s t u d y has f o c u s e d on t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t w o p o l i c i e s  designed  t o overcome program development c o n s t r a i n t s f o r the  Alaska public  use c a b i n program.  r e s u l t s of the analysis,  This chapter discusses the  and d r a w s c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m  these  findings. This chapter  has t h r e e m a j o r  f o c u s e s on t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l  sections.  r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s .  includes a d i s c u s s i o n of the techniques suggestions f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n similar  S e c t i o n 7.2 It  r e v i e w e d , and  of a n a l y s i s techniques i n  cases.  S e c t i o n 7.3 s u m m a r i z e s t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e t e c h n i q u e s to answer the f i r s t  two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s of t h i s  These q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n  include the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n p o l i c y , and t h e a s s u m p t i o n s problem  study.  a d e s c r i p t i o n of the o p e r a t i o n a l  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y .  the p o l i c y  used  From t h e s e d e s c r i p t i o n s ,  which  of u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each of p o l i c y  i s defined.  121  makers, the s t r u c t u r e o f  The  analysis of the three p o l i c y  issues basic to the  d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f an o p t i m u m r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y a r e discussed analysis  i n S e c t i o n 7.4.  f o r the scenarios of a p o l i c y  scenario of a contingency results,  program  Finally,  failure,  impact  and t h e  are reviewed.  B a s e d on t h e s e  revenues.  the questions that are raised  study are discussed, w i t h suggestions  being  by t h e r e s u l t s o f  f o r further  research  made.  7.2 METHODOLOGICAL The  CONCLUSIONS  development of a n a l y s i s  b a s e d on t h e p r o b l e m concerning two  policy,  of a p o l i c y  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e made f o r an o p t i m u m s t r a t e g y o f  recovering  this  The r e s u l t s  statement  t h e c a s e a t hand.  p o l i c i e s designed  overcome development  techniques  f o r t h i s study are  and s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s The p r o b l e m  statement  concerns the  t o r e c o v e r p r o g r a m r e v e n u e s and t h u s constraints:  Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s t h e most e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m ? The for  issue of which  revenue recovery p o l i c y  to implement  t h e PUC p r o g r a m has been a l o n g s t a n d i n g one w i t h i n t h e  DPOR.  Yet today t h e c o m b i n a t i o n  growing  of shrinking  b u d g e t s and a  number o f s t a t u t o r i a l c o n s t r a i n t s make any p o l i c y  decision The  increasingly  critical  t o the s u r v i v a l of the program.  d i r e c t o r of the D i v i s i o n  implementation  has d e c i d e d  to undertake the  of a program r e c e i p t s s t r a t e g y , a t the e x c l u s i o n 122  of  the concessionaire a l t e r n a t i v e .  Will  address the development c o n s t r a i n t s ? strategy failed?  Would  the program  Almost c o n c u r r e n t l y , D i v i s i o n  this policy adequately  What w o u l d happen  i f the  be p u t a t r i s k ? field  s t a f f proposed t o  i m p l e m e n t a c o n c e s s i o n s s t r a t e g y f o r one s y s t e m o f c a b i n s .  What  w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o f s u c h a move on p r o g r a m d e v e l o p m e n t and agency o p e r a t i o n s ? program development  Would  t h i s strategy adequately address  constraints?  B e c a u s e t h e s e q u e s t i o n s have n e v e r been a d d r e s s e d by t h e D i v i s i o n ,  formally  t h e a u t h o r has u n d e r t a k e n a  n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e two p o l i c y  alternatives.  Five  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s w e r e d e f i n e d t o s u p p o r t and c o m p l e m e n t  the  o r i g i n a l problem statement: (1) What a r e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s and w e a k n e s s e s o f e a c h p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and t h e c a u s e s o f t h e s e characteristics? (2) I f i m p l e m e n t e d s e p e r a t e l y , a t what p o i n t i s e a c h p o l i c y most v u l n e r a b l e t o f a i l u r e ? ( 3 ) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s i f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was n o t s u c c e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t e d ? ( 4 ) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e PUC p r o g r a m f r o m t h e implementation of a concessions policy? ( 5 ) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e a g e n c y f r o m t h e implementation of a concessions policy? The f i r s t s t e p i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e a p p r o a c h t o t h e was t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e a n a l y s i s .  123  7.2.1  Approach Six objectives  of  an  formed, t h e  i m p o r t a n c e was  course  of The  analysis cases,  First  and  of  of  t h a t i s , t o d e t e r m i n e what t h e  the best  action i s . second o b j e c t i v e ,  to evaluate  a range of  policy  t e c h n i q u e s f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h i s c a s e and  i s f o r the  objective  benefit  of  expands the  problem s o l v i n g exercise future  development  t o make a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n  p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , or,  the  a u t h o r and  function  of  future  interested  this analysis  readers.  beyond  a  to a framework w i t h p o t e n t i a l f o r  use. The  remaining four o b j e c t i v e s ,  subsidiary questions, of  f o r the  a n a l y s i s framework f o r t h i s case study.  overall  This  foundation  policy analysis  provide  while  the c r i t e r i a  were r e v i e w e d and  aimed at by  chosen.  the  w h i c h the They  methods  are:  (3) t o d e s c r i b e t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h p o l i c y , i n c l u d i n g the p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y to p o l i c y failure; (4) t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s o f p o l i c y makers i n the development of the p o l i c y a n a l y s i s structure; (5) t o d e v e l o p s c e n a r i o s alternative policies;  of program o p e r a t i o n s  under  (6) t o a s s e s s t h e i m p a c t s o f t h e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t . B a s e d on  these o b j e c t i v e s ,  t e c h n i q u e s were i d e n t i f i e d  and  124  appropriate  applied  analysis  to t h i s case  study.  the on  7.2.2  Problem The  Structuring  first  a n s w e r i n g the  group of  first  two  the  questions.  operational  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and  t e c h n i q u e s chosen to t h i s s t r u c t u r i n g methods. analysis  (i.e.,  to  end  the  referred  t o as  the  the  to of  premises  description.  of  The  problem  These t e c h n i q u e s p a r a l l e l  describe  was  points  incorporate  s i g n i f i c a n t p o l i c y makers i n t h i s  at  Following  t h i r d o b j e c t i v e s , the aim  v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f e a c h p o l i c y , and the  Reviewed  t e c h n i q u e s r e v i e w e d were aimed subsidiary  w o r d s o f t h e s e c o n d and describe  Techniques  the  aim  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of  each  of  this  policy)  i n t h a t they are concerned w i t h the p r o p e r d e f i n i t i o n of a problem  b e f o r e the  Under t h e  analysis  general  takes  place.  heading of  four  t e c h n i q u e s were r e v i e w e d .  that  although these techniques are  they are t h a n an  done so  evaluative  The that  i n the  four  aggregate  typologies) hierarchy  and  describe and  l a b e l l e d as  analysis,  be an  recognized "analysis",  sense of a d e s c r i p t i v e a n a l y s i s ,  rather  analysis.  (i.e., those  analysis).  logical that  divide  Ultimately,  logical  be c l a s s i f i e d  classification, (i.e., the  i t was  p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and t h e amount o f  influence  factors.  125  i n groups  policy  logical  aggregative  d i v i s i o n and  With the c o m b i n a t i o n ,  describe  these  Again i t should  methods r e v i e w e d can  w e r e r e j e c t e d , and combined.  classification  hierarchy  division, techniques analysis  p o s s i b l e to  points  both  of v u l n e r a b i l i t y ,  p o l i c y m a k e r s have  on  A l t h o u g h the a p p l i c a t i o n of straightforward, was  t o t a k e on  use  of  the  hierarchy  i n t h i s case the  the  complexities  combined v e r s i o n analysis allows  d e s c r i p t i o n of c a u s a l phase of policy  an  are  t e n d e n c i e s of  the  of  the  case study.  the a n a l y s t  t o make an  f a c t o r s before i n i t i a t i n g  analysis.  Still,  Therefore,  f o r the  the  and  objective the  evaluation  purpose of  describing  methods of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  analysis  adequate.  Similarly,  a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s p r o v e d t o be  f o r c h e c k i n g the  f i n d i n g s of  of  p r e m i s e s of the  e x a m i n i n g the  the  classification  not  of  r e l a t i o n s h i p of  analysis  (i.e.,  the  adequate  analysis  policy players.  r a i s e d questions that could this  descriptions  of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , the  have been  t h e s e methods  by  way  Moreover, i t  be a n s w e r e d w i t h i n  the  limits  p o l i c y maker  recommendations to o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p o s i t i o n ) . I t s e e m s t h a t t h e u s e o f t h i s m e t h o d s h o u l d l a r g e l y be determined t h i s one,  by  the  needs of  necessary.  s u c h an  a n a l y s i s may  7.2.3  the  Yet be  premises of  Policy Analysis  the  p r o s and  In c a s e s s i m i l a r t o  be an e x t r a l u x u r y  i n a complex a d m i n i s t r a t i v e n e c e s s a r y t o i d e n t i f y and the  individual policy  Techniques  S i n c e the p r e m i s e s of the reflect  analyst.  a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s may  totally  classify  the  not  setting,  later  players.  Reviewed p o l i c y makers i n t h i s  case  cons of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , t h e i r  p o s i t i o n s were a r t i c u l a t e d i n t o s c e n a r i o s 126  of p o l i c y  operations.  T h i s was policy  achieved using  the i n t e r m e d i a t e s t e p of the s t r u c t u r e d  debate. The  technique of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y  d e b a t e was  over three other techniques f o r i t s a b i l i t y d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers,  to i n c o r p o r a t e  facilitate  The  policy  While each of the threee r e j e c t e d t e c h n i q u e s  r e q u i r e d m o d i f i c a t i o n or a complementary structured  the  scenario  b u i l d i n g , and p r o v i d e f o r a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f alternatives.  chosen  policy  debate  three policy  could  technique, a  be use  " r i g h t o f f the  shelf."  issues c r i t i c a l  to the o v e r a l l  problem  were framed  as b r i e f s t a t e m e n t s o f s c e n a r i o s e i t h e r s u p p o r t i n g  or  the c o n c l u s i o n  refuting  then expanded  for evaluation  Cook and S c i o l i ' s also  to the debate.  taken " r i g h t  by way  needs of t h i s a n a l y s i s .  of p o l i c y  model of p o l i c y  o f f the s h e l f " , Program  DPOR p o l i c y , and p e r f o r m a n c e  These s c e n a r i o s impact  were  analysis.  impact a n a l y s i s  was  and e a s i l y a d a p t e d t o t h e o b j e c t i v e s were borrowed  measurement c r i t e r i a  from  from  visitor  c o u n t t e c h n i q u e s and management a c c o u n t i n g t e c h n i q u e s . The  r e s u l t s o f t h e i m p a c t a n a l y s i s were t h e n u s e d t o  s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t  each argument.  Following  this,  the  s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of the d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s were a d d r e s s e d .  127  7.2.4  Further  Application  A l t h o u g h a s e e m i n g l y complex r e s o l u t i o n of p o l i c y  s e t of procedures f o r the  i s s u e s , I s u g g e s t t h a t the methods  seen  h e r e i n c o u l d be s t r e a m l i n e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and a c a d e m i c first, for  settings.  The  applications  suggested are  f o r the purpose of p o l i c y problem  the e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y The  second,  c a v e a t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e t e c h n i q u e s seen  range of p o l i c y problems  policy  and  directives.  i n t h i s case study a r e not u n i v e r s a l l y  academics.  solving,  twofold:  a p p l i c a b l e to the  confronting administrators  These t e c h n i q u e s a r e b e s t a p p l i e d  In the p r o f e s s i o n a l  and  to the i s s u e s o f  c h o i c e t h a t a r e u n i q u e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , and  q u a l i t a t i v e outcomes d i f f i c u l t  wide  have  to measure i n q u a l i t a t i v e  terms.  experience of t h i s author, p o l i c y  d e c i s i o n d o c u m e n t s have t h e p o t e n t i a l assumptions or premises undefined.  to leave major  Although the format of these  d e c i s i o n making  documents i s o f t e n c o d i f i e d i n t o  policy,  or not the format c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y p o r t r a y s the  whether  l o g i c and a s s u m p t i o n s  administrative  b e h i n d t h e r e a s o n i n g depends on  the  writer . The  methods a p p l i e d  suggest, i n the c r i t i c a l  to t h i s case study are u s e f u l , I e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y making  E i t h e r an a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s o r s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y c o u l d be a p p l i e d  f o r the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n  assumptions or premises.  of  documents. debate  unwritten  S t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate t e c h n i q u e s  seem t o p r o v i d e a v a l u a b l e t o o l t o c h e c k t h e l o g i c o f a p o l i c y 128  argument. defined,  Once t h e s u b - i s s u e s  t h e y c a n be f u r t h e r a n a l y z e d .  case study policy  t h e method o f t e s t i n g t h e s u b - i s s u e s  mentioned, t h e s e methods c o u l d  was t h r o u g h t h e  developed,  only  and used  One o f t h e r e a s o n s f o r  t h e f r a m e w o r k h a d t o be  then c a r r i e d o u t . In p r o f e s s i o n a l s i t u a t i o n s ,  t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e f r a m e w o r k w o u l d be u n s e e n , b e i n g light  i n this  be s t r e a m l i n e d  t h e s c e n e s by t h e p o l i c y a n a l y s t .  the s i z e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h a t first  For example,  impact a n a l y s i s . As  behind  of the major p o l i c y problem a r e  as n e c e s s a r y  brought t o  f o r explanation.  7.3 POLICY CHARACTERISTICS The  r e s u l t s summarized i n t h i s s e c t i o n a r e i n answer t o t h e  first  two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s  subsidiary  questions  forthis  a r e answered  thesis (the f i n a l  i n s e c t i o n 7.4). Those  questions are: (1) and  What a r e t h e s t r e n g t h s a n d w e a k n e s s e s o f e a c h p o l i c y , the causes of these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ?  (2) I f e a c h p o l i c y w e r e i m p l e m e n t e d s e p e r a t e l y , p o i n t i s each most v u l n e r a b l e t o f a i l u r e ? For  a t what  t h i s a n a l y s i s , the strength of a p o l i c y i s given to  mean t h e c e r t a i n t y w i t h w h i c h i t c a n be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented.  The w e a k n e s s o f a p o l i c y i s g i v e n t o mean t h a t  there are s i g n i f i c a n t  l e v e l s of uncertainty associated  s u c c e s s f u l outcome o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .  w i t h the  Areas o r phases o f  u n c e r t a i n t y a r e a l s o r e f e r r e d t o as p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y .  129  The methods o f c l a s s f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and a n a l y s i s were used t o a r r i v e a t t h e s e r e s u l t s . r e s u l t s , the primary i s s u e s problem 7.3.1  are  that c h a r a c t e r i z e  assumptional From  these  the p o l i c y  defined.  Program  Receipts  Recalling  Policy  the a n a l y s i s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phases f o r  p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s , i t was  shown t h a t :  (1) a g e n c y i n v o l v e m e n t and i n f l u e n c e i s l o w t o n e g l i g i b l e d u r i n g p h a s e s o f p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n , and h i g h t h r o u g h phases of p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n ; (2) t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l p h a s e s o f t h e p o l i c y w i l l be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented; (3) t h e o u t c o m e o f t h e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n p h a s e i s t h e most u n c e r t a i n s t a g e o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . In a n s w e r  to the f i r s t  subsidiary question,  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s suggest that  the s t r e n g t h  r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s i n the high objectives causal  will  be a c h i e v e d  factor associated  above  of the program  degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t  i n operational  with  the  this  phases.  i s the high  A  outcome  primary  l e v e l of agency  i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h i s phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The m a j o r w e a k n e s s o f t h e p o l i c y i s t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f uncertainty  involved  with  i t s authorization.  Again,  important causal  f a c t o r i s the low l e v e l o f agency  in  implementation.  t h i s phase of  130  an  involvement  In answer  t o the second s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n ,  point of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of  f o r program  outcome i n t h e l e g i s l a t i v e  7.3.2  Concessions  r e c e i p t s i s the uncertainty  a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase.  Policy  The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n showed  the primary  analysis of the concessions p o l i c y  that: (1) t h e r e i s a medium amount o f a g e n c y i n f l u e n c e throughout a l l stages of implementation; (2) t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t p o l i c y o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s c a n u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d , stemming f r o m t h e agency's a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l f o r c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s through the concession contract; (3) t h e r e i s a d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y a s t o when p o l i c y o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s m i g h t be a c h i e v e d , s t e m m i n g f r o m t h e l a c k o f agency i n f l u e n c e over s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n a l variables. This  the  high  suggest the s t r e n g t h  degree o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t  successfully  implemented.  that i t s ' implementation situational control. the  t h e p o l i c y c a n be  The c h i e f w e a k n e s s i s vulnerable  of the p o l i c y i s  to delay  from  v a r i a b l e s o v e r w h i c h t h e a g e n c y has l i t t l e  This suggests the primary point  operational For  of the concessions p o l i c y i s  stage of p o l i c y  both p o l i c i e s ,  o r no  of v u l n e r a b i l i t y i s  implementation.  i t seems t h a t  t h e l e v e l o f agency  i n f l u e n c e over c o n t r i b u t i n g p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s c o r r e l a t e s t o the certainty  t h a t a p h a s e c a n be a c h i e v e d .  degree o f agency i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e of outcome.  When t h e r e  i s a high  isa  high  degree of c e r t a i n t y  When t h e r e i s a l e s s e r o r l o w d e g r e e o f a g e n c y  131  i n f l u e n c e , there policy  i s a l e s s e r or  degree of c e r t a i n t y  of  outcome. I suggest that  and  low  the  c o r r e l a t i o n between agency  influence  s u c c e s s o f o u t c o m e c a n n o t be t a k e n a s a u n i v e r s a l  characterization  i n the  c a s e i t seems t h a t t h e dedicated  staff  those p r o j e c t s  field  of p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n .  c o m b i n a t i o n of  have t h e  ability  highly q u a l i f i e d  In and  to s u c c e s s f u l l y implement  o v e r w h i c h t h e y have a h i g h  degree of  control.  In the w i d e r f i e l d of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s , t h i s m i g h t p r o v e t o the  exception, This  rather  than the  of p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s  primary causal  the  easier  factor?  type  achieve? relatively  s e r v i c e s agency  What i f t h e s t a f f f o r t h e DPOR was  q u a l i f i e d or dedicated?  Is  i s i t the  f o r t h i s program are  to achieve than those f o r a s o c i a l  instance?  Or  agency i s a t t e m p t i n g to  Perhaps the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s  be  rule.  c o r r e l a t i o n d o e s r a i s e a number o f q u e s t i o n s .  agency i n v o l v e m e n t the  this  not  Would t h e c e r t a i n t y o f  for  highly  outcome  decrease? These q u e s t i o n s s u g g e s t t h e  need t o d e f i n e  r e l a t i o n s h i p between program o b j e c t i v e s , i n v o l v e m e n t , s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , and for  a number o f d i f f e r e n t p u b l i c  a n a l y s i s might give a d m i n i s t r a t o r s  service  categories.  132  l e v e l s of  agency  staff qualifications agencies.  information  m i g h t r e s p o n d t o c o n s t r a i n t s i n any one  the  of the  on  Such how  above  an  they  7.3.3  Stakeholders The  Assumptions  classification  a n a l y s i s of the p o l i c y  alternatives  h a s s h o w n t h a t t h e l a c k o f a g e n c y c o n t r o l i s an i m p o r t a n t to  the r e s o l u t i o n of the optimum p o l i c y  it  w o u l d seem t h a t t h e b e h a v i o r ,  agency"stakeholders  critical  corroborate this issue.  premises  was  and  Following  assumptions of  To  t h i s end,  an a s s u m p t i o n a l d i r e c t o r and  analysis  area  undertaken.  For the agency d i r e c t o r , the p r o b l e m of revenue for  t h e PUC  primarily is  statutorial.  (which  Therefore,  hence h i s s u p p o r t  h i s s o l u t i o n to the  requires legislative  programs in-house My  that keeping an a t t e m p t  i n order  authorization).  This i s  Division  economic  to ensure agency c o n t r o l over  the  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h i s management p h i l o s o p h y i s t h e o p e r a t i o n o f a new  program in-house  t o c o m p e n s a t e f o r u n c e r t a i n t y , and  accountability  w i t h i n the  f o r t h e PUC  Revenue r e c o v e r y  reflects  encourage  agency.  For the area s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , recovery  problem  f o r the program r e c e i p t s  c o n s i s t e n t with h i s philosophy to i n i t i a t e  outcome.  recovery  p r o g r a m (among o t h e r e c o n o m i c p r o g r a m s ) i s  legislative,  policy  this,  to t h i s p o l i c y d e c i s i o n would  of the p e r s p e c t i v e s of the D i v i s i o n superintendent  choice.  issue  the problem of  revenue  program i s i n day-to-day o p e r a t i o n s .  is critical  to the ongoing  program,  therefore i t i s c r i t i c a l  possible  to achieve  this goal.  133  The  o p e r a t i o n of  the  t o r e t a i n as many o p t i o n s superintendent  as  shows t h a t  he  values  c e r t a i n t y o f o u t c o m e by b e i n g  prepared to implement  w h i c h e v e r p o l i c y w i l l g e t t h e j o b done f o r h i m . Both stakeholders c e r t a i n t y o f outcome. would i n c r e a s e the  place This  The  i n a high  s u g g e s t s t h a t an  the c e r t a i n t y that  PUC p r o g r a m i n t h e n e a r  7.4 ANALYTICAL  value  degree o f optimum p o l i c y  revenue w i l l  be r e c o v e r e d f o r  future.  CONCLUSIONS  conclusion  o f t h e s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y d e b a t e recommends  t h a t t h e DPOR i m p l e m e n t a p o l i c y c o m b i n i n g t h e p r o g r a m s t r a t e g y and c o n c e s s i o n a i r e recovery  policy.  supporting The  were t e s t e d u s i n g  conclusions  were then a p p l i e d  and p r o b l e m  to the  statement f o r t h i s case  study.  of  below.  Authorization  f i r s t p o l i c y issue addresses the p r o b a b i l i t y that the  program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l classification  analysis  be a u t h o r i z e d i n section  by t h e l e g i s l a t u r e .  5.3.1 showed t h a t t h e  process of p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s to a large extent agency  techniques.  f o r e a c h o f t h e p r e m i s e s , and t h e p o l i c y  Uncertainty The  The  p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s  r e s u l t s of these analyses  statement, are discussed 7.4.1  s t r a t e g y as t h e o v e r a l l revenue  T h i s r e c o m m e n d a t i o n and t h e p r e m i s e s  subsidiary questions The  receipts  influence  and t h e r e f o r e  vulnerable  outside of  to veto.  W h i l e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a u t h o r i z a t i o n c a n n o t be c o n c l u s i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d , b a s e d on t h e i n h e r e n t the  legislative  a u t h o r i z a t i o n process,  134  uncertainty of  I have c o n c l u d e d  that  the  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the program  Therefore, t h i s conclusion the  receipts policy i s uncertain.  i s a c c e p t e d as a p r e m i s e  p o l i c y debate recommendation  supporting  t h a t a combined p o l i c y  be  implemented. 7.4.2  Policy Two  program  Failure  Impacts  c o n c l u s i o n s w e r e made a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f t h e  w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue r e c o v e r y .  conclusions are a p p l i e d t h i s case study, which  t o the t h i r d  PUC  These  subsidiary question f o r  asks:  What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s i f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was n o t s u c c e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t e d ? First,  t h e i m p a c t s o f t h i s s c e n a r i o w o u l d n o t be  immediately s i g n i f i c a n t program.  The PUC  t o t h e o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t  program  has been s l o w l y d e v e l o p e d f o r t h e p a s t  t h r e e y e a r s w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue recovery. the  program  could  of the  Therefore,  be a l l o w e d t o o p e r a t e f o r a t l e a s t two  more  y e a r s w i t h a minimum amount o f m a i n t e n a n c e t i m e and money allocated The  to the  program.  s e c o n d c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t a f t e r two y e a r s o f m i n i m u m  maintenance, f a c i l i t y  d e t e r i o r a t i o n would r e q u i r e e i t h e r  expenditures,  f o r c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n , or the  leasing  abandonment o f t h e p r o g r a m . discourage concessionaire  Advanced  operation  deterioration of the f a c i l i t y .  major  might In  combination w i t h budgetary c o n s t r a i n t s , these circumstances might f o r c e program  m a n a g e r s t o abandon t h e p r o g r a m .  135  Finally,  the debate  r e c o v e r y mechanism w i l l  premise  t h a t "the l a c k of a revenue  have s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t s " i s  accepted  w i t h the q u a l i f i c a t i o n that these impacts,  not f e l t  immediately,  two  although  w o u l d r e q u i r e an a g e n c y r e s p o n s e  within  years.  7.4.3 C o n t i n g e n c y The  final  implementation  Policy policy  debate  issue addresses  of the concessions p o l i c y .  a n a l y s i s of t h i s premise subsidiary  Impacts  i s used  questions f o r this  the impacts of  The c o n c l u s i o n t o t h e  t o answer the f i n a l  case  study.  two  They a r e :  What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e PUC p r o g r a m f r o m t h e implementation of a concessions p o l i c y ? What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e a g e n c y f r o m t h e implementation of a concessions policy? In  a n s w e r t o t h e f i r s t q u e s t i o n , i t was d e t e r m i n e d  that  c o n c e s s i o n a i r e management w o u l d e a s i l y a c h i e v e p r o g r a m operation objectives.  F u r t h e r , t h e i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m  d e v e l o p m e n t o b j e c t i v e s w o u l d be p o s i t i v e . term  future,  the program  w o u l d have t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o e x p a n d ,  as p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s c o u l d be p u t i n t o In of  I n t h e m i d - and l o n g -  answer t o the second  facility  development.  question, the short-term  impacts  i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h i s p o l i c y on t h e D i v i s i o n w o u l d be t o  require small diversions of s t a f f the long-term,  each system  t i m e from o t h e r p r o j e c t s .  of cabins operated  136  by a  In  c o n c e s s i o n a i r e w o u l d r e l i e v e t h e a g e n c y o f an o t h e r w i s e substantial  management r e s p o n s i b i l i t y .  In c o n c l u s i o n , t h e p o l i c y implementation qualification  debate premise  of a contingency p o l i c y  f o r the  i s accepted  with the  t h a t t h e D i v i s i o n m u s t be w i l l i n g t o a b s o r b t h e  short-term s t a f f time impacts of s e t t i n g c o n c e s s i o n a i r e operations. 7.4.4 Recommended P o l i c y In t h i s case agency p o l i c y legislative  study  Strategy I have d e t e r m i n e d  f o r revenue recovery  process,  that: the present  i s vulnerable to veto  i n the  s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i e i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m  development would r e s u l t from  continued operations without a  means o f r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y , and t h a t a c o n c e s s i o n s revenue recovery would p r o v i d e a v i a b l e  strategyf o r  alternative  t o program  receipts. In a n s w e r t o t h e p r o b l e m  statement  have recommended t h a t t o h e l p e n s u r e  continued  o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e D i v i s i o n that combines both s t r a t e g i e s  concessions development process. that a contingency  implementation is  i n the case  program  implement a p o l i c y  of revenue recovery.  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n does n o t a d v o c a t e  advocate  f o r t h i s case study, I  This  t h e i m m e d i a t e s t a r t up o f t h e This recommendation  does  s t r a t e g y be d e v e l o p e d f o r t h a t the program r e c e i p t s  vetoed.  137  initiative  M o r e o v e r , I a d v o c a t e an a g e n c y c o m m i t t m e n t with  the development of f o r w a r d t h i n k i n g program  measures.  to the program development  D i v i s i o n managers s h o u l d r e a l i z e t h a t i f the program  receipts initiative f a i l s ,  they w i l l  same s t a t u t o r y  f o r program development.  constraints  to these c o n s t r a i n t s , allowing  be c o n f r o n t e d w i t h  program managers w i l l  the program to l a n g u i s h  the  In r e s p o n s e  have t h e c h o i c e o f  and g r a d u a l l y  deteriorate,  or  i n c u r s h o r t term agency c o s t s f o r the long term b e n e f i t of the program.  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