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Revenue recovery strategies for the Alaska public cabin program Keeler, Kevin R. 1987

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REVENUE RECOVERY STRATEGIES FOR THE ALASKA PUBLIC USE CABIN PROGRAM By KEVIN R. KEELER A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Sch o o l of Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g to the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA January 1987 ©Kevin R. K e e l e r , 1987 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the head o f my department o r by h i s o r her r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l no t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f Q~^~-^<i? P *cy<~*4L Pfi^^j The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumbia 1956 Main Mall V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1Y3 Date '/st/tP DE-6 (3/81) ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s e v a l u a t e s a range of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r a p p l i c a t i o n to an i s s u e of p o l i c y c h o i c e . D i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of two p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s are d e f i n e d and e v a l u a t e d u s i n g p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s . The two p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s concern revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of P a r k s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n p u b l i c use c a b i n (PUC) program. The l a c k of a mechanism t o r e c o v e r revenues from program user f e e s i s the p r i m a r y c o n s t r a i n t f o r the o p e r a t i o n and development of the PUC program. The D i v i s i o n has proposed t h a t the A l a s k a L e g i s l a t u r e a u t h o r i z e the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . Because p a s t l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s f o r program r e c e i p t s have f a i l e d , D i v i s i o n s t a f f have proposed i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n a i r e s t r a t e g y . T h i s t h e s i s d e t e r m i n e s which p o l i c y would ensure the c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and development of the PUC program. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s used to c a t e g o r i z e the o p e r a t i o n a l s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y , and agency i n f l u e n c e over t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . A s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i s used t o d e f i n e the d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers. These p r e m i s e s are developed as s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s w i t h i n the framework of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. The i m p a c t s of the i i s c e n a r i o s a r e f o r e c a s t u s i n g p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s , and recommendations are made f o r an optimum p o l i c y s t r a t e g y . A s i g n i f i c a n t weakness of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s t h a t i t i s u n c e r t a i n w h e t h e r i t w i l l be a u t h o r i z e d by t h e L e g i s l a t u r e . The f a i l u r e of L e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s f o r e c a s t t o have s i g n i f i c a n t mid-term i m p a c t s on the PUC program. The p r i m a r y impact would be the d e t e r i o r a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s ; combined w i t h f u r t h e r budget c u t b a c k s , the D i v i s i o n may be f o r c e d t o abandon the PUC program. I m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s s t r a t e g y would p r o v i d e a v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r program o p e r a t i o n s and development. T h e r e f o r e , c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n i s recommended as a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y t o the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . The methods a p p l i e d t o t h i s c a s e s t u d y a r e u s e f u l f o r e i t h e r the development o f , or the c r i t i c a l e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y d i r e c t i v e s . The t e c h n i q u e s of a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s or the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate can be used to i d e n t i f y the ass u m p t i o n s and p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers. The s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate a l s o p r o v i d e s a means to check the l o g i c of a p o l i c y argument. P o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s p r o v i d e s a means of f o r e c a s t i n g or measuring the outcome of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Taken t o g e t h e r , the t e c h n i q u e s p r o v i d e f o r a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of i s s u e s of p o l i c y c h o i c e . i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i i L I S T OF FIGURES i x CHAPTER 1 CASE STUDY INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 PURPOSE OF T H E S I S 1 1.1.1 P r o b l e m S t a t e m e n t D e f i n e d 1 1.1.2 S u b s i d i a r y Q u e s t i o n s 4 1.1.3 Scope o f A n a l y s i s 6 1.1.4 S i g n i f i c a n c e 6 1.2 METHODS OF A N A L Y S I S 7 1.2.1 S o u r c e s o f I n f o r m a t i o n 7 1.2.2 S t r u c t u r i n g t h e P r o b l e m 7 1.2.3 S t r u c t u r e d P o l i c y D ebate 9 1.2.4 P o l i c y I m p a c t A n a l y s i s 11 1.3 ORGANIZATION AND RESULTS OF A N A L Y S I S 12 1.4 DEFINITION OF TERMS 14 CHAPTER 2 CASE STUDY OVERVIEW 16 2.1 INTRODUCTION 16 2.2 RECREATION CABIN PROGRAMS IN ALASKA 17 2.2.1 Program Demand and Agency R e s p o n s e 17 2.2.2 S t a t e F a c i l i t y D e v e l o p m e n t 18 2.2.3 S t a t e P r o g r a m D e v e l o p m e n t 19 i v TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 2.3 REVENUE RECOVERY CONSTRAINTS 21 2.4 REVENUE RECOVERY ALTERNATIVES 23 2.4.1 L e g i s l a t i v e I n i t i a t i v e s 23 2.4.2 C o n c e s s i o n s P r o p o s a l 25 CHAPTER 3 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROBLEM STRUCTURING TECHNIQUES 27 3.1 INTRODUCTION 27 3.1.1 P r o b l e m S t a t e m e n t S i g n i f i c a n c e 28 3.1.2 S u b s i d i a r y Q u e s t i o n s 30 3.1.3 O b j e c t i v e s 32 3.2 SCOPE OF A N A L Y S I S 33 3.2.1 D e f i n i n g I m p l e m e n t a t i o n 34 3.2.2 P o l i c y E n v i r o n m e n t 35 3.3 PROBLEM STRUCTURING METHODS 36 3.3.1 S u r v e y o f M e t h o d s 37 3.3.2 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n A n a l y s i s P r o c e d u r e 39 3.3.3 A s s u m p t i o n a l A n a l y s i s P r o c e d u r e 41 3.4 SUMMARY 43 CHAPTER 4 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF POLICY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 45 4.1 I N T R O D U C T I O N 45 4.2 DEVELOPMENT OF A.NALYS IS FRAMEWORK 46 v TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 4.3 STRUCTURED POLICY DEBATE 48 4.3.1 D e b a t e E l e m e n t s 50 4.4 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS ELEMENTS 53 4.4.1 P r o g r a m O b j e c t i v e s 54 4.4.2 P r o g r a m A c t i v i t i e s 55 4.4.3 Performance Measurement C r i t e r i a 5 5 4.5 SUMMARY 56 CHAPTER 5 POLICY CHARACTERISTICS AND POLICY MAKER ASSUMPTIONS 58 5.1 INTRODUCTION 58 5.2 APPLYING CLASSIFICATION ANALYSIS TO THE CASE STUDY 59 5.3 PROGRAM R E C E I P T S P O L I C Y 60 5.3.1 Revenue R e c o v e r y P r o c e d u r e s 60 5.3.2 I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P r o c e s s 61 5.3.3 P r o g r a m O p e r a t i o n s 63 5.3.4 I d e n t i f y i n g U n c e r t a i n t y 65 5.4 CONCESSION P O L I C Y 67 5.4.1 I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P r o c e s s 69 5.4.2 Revenue R e c o v e r y P r o c e s s 72 5.4.3 P r o g r a m O p e r a t i o n s 72 5.4.4 I d e n t i f y i n g U n c e r t a i n t y 73 v i TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 5.5 INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS 75 5.6 ASSUMPTIONAL A N A L Y S I S 78 5.6.1 O v e r v i e w o f P r o c e d u r e 78 5.6.2 A g e n c y D i r e c t o r 79 5.6.3 A r e a s S u p e r i n t e n d e n t 82 5.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 84 CHAPTER 6 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RECOVERY ALTERNATIVES 87 6.1 INTRODUCTION 87 6.2 DEVELOPMENT OF DEBATE ISSUES 88 6.2.1 U n c e r t a i n t y I s s u e 91 6.2.2 P o l i c y F a i l u r e I s s u e 92 6.2.3 C o n t i n g e n c y P o l i c y I s s u e 93 6.2.4 P o l i c y C l a i m 94 6.3 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS ELEMENTS 95 6.3.1 P r o g r a m O b j e c t i v e s 96 6.3.2 P r o g r a m A c t i v i t i e s 98 6.3.3 P e r f o r m a n c e M easurement C r i t e r i a 99 6.4 POLICY SCENARIO: POLICY FAILURE 101 6.4.1 P o l i c y / P r o g r a m P e r f o r m a n c e 103 6.4.2 P o l i c y Impacts on Program O b j e c t i v e s 104 6.5 POLICY SCENARIO: POLICY MODIFICATION 108 6.5.1 P o l i c y / P r o g r a m P e r f o r m a n c e 109 v i i TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED Page 6.5.2 P o l i c y Impacts on P r o g r a m O b j e c t i v e s 112 6.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 116 CHAPTER 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 121 7.1 INTRODUCTION 1 21 7.2 METHODOLOGICAL CONCLUSIONS 122 7.2.1 A p p r o a c h 124 7.2.2 Problem S t r u c t u r i n g Techniques R e v i e w e d 1 2 5 7.2.3 P o l i c y A n a l y s i s Techniques R e v i e w e d 126 7.2.4 F u r t h e r A p p l i c a t i o n 128 7.3 POLICY C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S 129 7.3.1 P r o g r a m R e c e i p t s P o l i c y 130 7.3.2 C o n c e s s i o n s P o l i c y 131 7.3.3 S t a k e h o l d e r A s s u m p t i o n s 133 7.4 ANALYTICAL CONCLUSIONS 134 7.4.1 U n c e r t a i n t y o f A u t h o r i z a t i o n 134 7.4.2 P o l i c y F a i l u r e I m p a c t s 135 7.4.3 C o n t i n g e n c y P o l i c y I m p a c t s 136 7.4.4 Recommended P o l i c y S t r a t e g y 137 B I B L I O G R A P H Y 139 v i i i LIST OF FIGURES Page 3.1 POLICY PROCESS MODEL 33 6.1 STRUCTURE OF POLICY DEBATE 89 i x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE OF THESIS 1.1.1 Problem D e f i n e d The purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o e v a l u a t e the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of two a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d t o overcome development c o n s t r a i n t s f o r the S t a t e of A l a s k a p u b l i c use c a b i n (PUC) program. T h i s a n a l y s i s f o l l o w s the a u t h o r s i n v o l v e m e n t w i t h the development of the PUC program as an employee of the A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n (AK DPOR) from 1984 t o 1986. P u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n programs have been o p e r a t e d i n A l a s k a by the U n i t e d S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e (USFS) s i n c e the 1930s. Today, v a r i o u s r e s o u r c e management a g e n c i e s of f e d e r a l government o p e r a t e over 200 c a b i n s i n - the s t a t e . Surveys have shown t h a t the development of new p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s i s the number one c h o i c e of s t a t e r e s i d e n t s when p o l l e d about p r e f e r e n c e s f o r new r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s ( A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of P a r k s , 1981, p.39). Members of the A l a s k a L e g i s l a t u r e have responded to the demand f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l c a b i n s by i n t r o d u c i n g • 1 l e g i s l a t i o n i n the 1984 and 1986 l e g i s l a t i v e s e s s i o n s t h a t would have p r o v i d e d f o r the i n i t i a l c a p i t a l and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f p i l o t systems of c a b i n s . These i n i t i a t i v e s were u l t i m a t e l y vetoed by the g o vernor f o r reasons t h a t w i l l be d i s c u s s e d more f u l l y i n Chapter Two. As the p r i m a r y agency r e s p o n s i b l e f o r r e c r e a t i o n on s t a t e l a n d s , the A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Parks and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n responded to p u b l i c demand w i t h the development of f o u r p i l o t systems t o t a l l i n g 13 c a b i n s . These c a b i n s were r e h a b i l i t a t e d o r c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h o u t any l e g i s l a t i v e a p p r o p r i a t i o n . I n s t e a d , d i v i s i o n managers used d i v e r t e d funds, s t a f f t i m e , v o l u n t e e r e f f o r t s , and donated m a t e r i a l s f o r the development of the c a b i n s . The p r i m a r y c o n s t r a i n t to the development of the A l a s k a p u b l i c use c a b i n program i s the a b i l i t y to r e c o v e r program revenues from u s e r f e e s . A l t h o u g h the DPOR charges a n i g h t l y r e n t a l fee f o r the use of the c a b i n s , these revenues have never been r e a l l o c a t e d t o the agency. As a r e s u l t , agency managers are r e l u c t a n t t o put t h e i r f u l l s upport behind a program t h a t w i l l i n e v i t a b l y c o s t them i n terms of funds and man-hours, y e t f o r which t h e r e i s no guaranteed o p e r a t i n g a p p r o p r i a t i o n . The source of t h i s c o n s t r a i n t i s p r i m a r i l y s t a t u t o r i a l . A l a s k a S t a t u t e (AS) 41.21.030 mandates t h a t a l l revenues r e c e i v e d from th e o p e r a t i o n of park f a c i l i t i e s be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund of the s t a t e . T h e r e f o r e , the D i v i s i o n must compete w i t h o t h e r s t a t e a g e n c i e s f o r the l e g i s l a t i v e 2 a l l o c a t i o n of program revenues. A second c o n s t r a i n t , House B i l l 696, would as of J u l y 1, 1987 make the c o l l e c t i o n of user fees by the DPOR i l l e g a l w i t h o u t s t a t u t o r i a l a u t h o r i z a t i o n . The r e c o v e r y of user f e e s t o fund r e c r e a t i o n program o p e r a t i o n s i s a common p r a c t i c e w i t h s t a t e and f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s throughout the U n i t e d S t a t e s . In A l a s k a , the Granger-Thye Act p r o v i d e s f o r the r e c o v e r y of u s e r f e e s f o r the maintenance and o p e r a t i o n of US F o r e s t S e r v i c e r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s . In response t o the c o n s t r a i n t s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , the DPOR has proposed t h a t the 1987 L e g i s l a t u r e c o n s i d e r an omnibus fee b i l l t h a t would i n c l u d e revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the PUC program v i a an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e mechanism known as the program  r e c e i p t s account. T h i s mechanism i s des i g n e d t o e s t a b l i s h the l e g i s l a t i v e precedence of an a u t o m a t i c a p p r o p r i a t i o n back to the agency r e s p o n s i b l e f o r revenue c o l l e c t i o n , g i v e n t h a t those funds are used t o o p e r a t e the program from w h i c h the funds were o r i g i n a l l y c o l l e c t e d . In e f f e c t , program revenues are des i g n e d t o s u b s i d i z e the program, i n s t e a d of p u b l i c a l l o c a t i o n s . R e c o g n i z i n g the p a s t f a i l u r e s of l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s f o r t h e PUC p r o g r a m , i n A u g u s t 1986 a p r o p o s a l was made by an agency s t a f f member to dev e l o p a c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n f o r one system of c a b i n s . T h i s p r o p o s a l was made by a park s u p e r i n t e n d e n t r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a park u n i t w i t h f o u r o p e r a t i n g PUCs and t w e l v e p o t e n t i a l a d d i t i o n s to t h i s system. 3 C o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n o f t h e PUCs has l o n g b e e n c o n s i d e r e d an a l t e r n a t i v e t o a g e n c y o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e p r o g r a m w i t h t h e m e c h a n i s m o f p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s . U n d e r t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e , a p r i v a t e o p e r a t o r w o u l d c o l l e c t a l l u s e r f e e s , a n d be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f t h o s e f e e s f o r t h e m a i n t e n a n c e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e c a b i n s . T h i s c o n c e s s i o n s p r o p o s a l , t a k e n i n l i g h t o f t h e a g e n c y p o l i c y s u p p o r t i n g p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s f o r r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y , h i g h l i g h t s t h e p r i m a r y i s s u e a d d r e s s e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . T h a t i s s u e , s u m m a r i z e d a s a q u e s t i o n , f o r m s t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t f o r t h i s t h e s i s : W h i c h r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e PUC p r o g r a m ? T h i s q u e s t i o n m a k e s a n u m b e r o f a s s u m p t i o n s , s u c h a s r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y b e i n g a r e q u i s i t e t o c o n t i n u e d p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n a n d d e v e l o p m e n t . T h i s a n d o t h e r i s s u e s r a i s e d by t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t a r e a r t i c u l a t e d f o r a n a l y s i s by way o f t h e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n . 1.1.2 S u b s i d i a r y Q u e s t i o n s F i v e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s h a v e been d e r i v e d f r o m t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t . A d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e s e q u e s t i o n i s s e e n i n C h a p t e r T h r e e . The f i r s t t h r e e q u e s t i o n s a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e i s s u e and p r o b l e m ( s ) a t h a n d : 4 (1 ) What a r e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s a n d w e a k n e s s e s o f e a c h p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and t h e c a u s e s o f t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ? (2 ) I f i m p l e m e n t e d s e p a r a t e l y , a t w h a t p o i n t i s e a c h p o l i c y m o s t v u l n e r a b l e t o f a i l u r e ? ( 3 ) Wha t w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s i f a r e v e n u e r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was n o t s u c c e s s f u l l y i m p l e m e n t e d ? The f i n a l t w o s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n a d d r e s s t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t i v e , a n d p r o v i d e a f o r u m f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e t w o p o l i c i e s : (4) Wha t w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e PUC p r o g r a m f r o m t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? (5) Wha t w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s o n t h e a g e n c y f r o m t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? B a s e d on t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t a n d s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s , f i v e o b j e c t i v e s h a v e been i d e n t i f i e d f o r t h i s s t u d y : (1) To make a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s ; (2) t o e v a l u a t e a r a n g e o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r a p p l i c a t i o n t o t h i s c a s e a n d s i m i l a r c a s e s ; (3) t o d e s c r i b e t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h p o l i c y , a n d i d e n t i f y t h e p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f e a c h a l t e r n a t i v e ; (4) t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s o f p o l i c y m a k e r s i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e p o l i c y a n a l y s i s s t r u c t u r e ; (5) t o d e v e l o p s c e n a r i o s o f p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s u n d e r t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s ; ( 6 ) t o a s s e s s t h e i m p a c t s o f t h e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s and d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e s e o b j e c t i v e s h a v e b o t h a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l a n d s u b s t a n t i v e f u n c t i o n . They w i l l be u s e d a s m e t h o d o l o g i c a l c r i t e r i a f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n a n d a p p l i c a t i o n o f a p p r o p r i a t e 5 p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s t o t h i s study. Once the a p p r o p r i a t e methods are chosen, and the above o b j e c t i v e s f u l f i l l e d , s u b s t a n t i v e c o n c l u s i o n s w i l l be drawn i n answer to the problem s t a t e m e n t and s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . 1.1.3 Scope of A n a l y s i s The scope of t h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s on the p r o c e s s and outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Of s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t are the i m p a c t s of program c o n s t r a i n t s on the outcome of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . As seen i n s e c t i o n 3.2, the d e f i n i t i o n of the s c o p e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t a k e n f r o m a P o l i c y P r o c e s s M odel developed by Shank (1983 , p.12). In t h i s model, program development c o n s t r a i n t s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t of the p o l i c y environment, o r , e x t e r n a l t o the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l a t t e m pt to d e t e r m i n e which p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e i s best s u i t e d to respond t o these c o n s t r a i n t s , w h i l e e n s u r i n g c o n t i n u e d program o p e r a t i o n and development. 1.1.4 S i g n i f i c a n c e The A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of P a r k s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n has never f o r m a l l y u ndertaken an a n a l y s i s of the i m p a c t s of the two p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t the agency does not o t h e r w i s e have the t i m e or money t o develop. 6 For the a u t h o r , t h i s a n a l y s i s p r o v i d e s the o p p o r t u n i t y t o address a l o n g s t a n d i n g i s s u e from o u t s i d e of the agency. I t w i l l a l l o w f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n of methods and e x p r e s s i o n of o p i n i o n s u n c o n s t r a i n e d by agency p r o t o c o l . T h i s a n a l y s i s a l s o o f f e r s the o p p o r t u n i t y t o t e s t d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y t e c h n i q u e s , w i t h the aim of a p p l y i n g the framework developed h e r e i n t o s i m i l a r cases i n the f u t u r e . 1.2 METHODS OF ANALYSIS 1.2.1 Sources of I n f o r m a t i o n The i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s was g a t h e r e d by the author between August of 1984 and August of 1986. During t h a t t i m e , t h e a u t h o r was e m p l o y e d by the AK DPOR t o u n d e r t a k e management p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y development f o r the PUC program. Other r e l a t e d a s s i g n m e n t s i n c l u d e d the d r a f t i n g of l e g i s l a t i o n t h a t would e s t a b l i s h a program r e c e i p t s account f o r the program, and c o o r d i n a t i o n of the program w i t h o t h e r d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n the A l a s k a Department of N a t u r a l Resources. The l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w and development of t h i s case study took p l a c e between September 1986 and January 1987. 1.2.2 S t r u c t u r i n g the Problem The f i r s t broad c a t e g o r y of a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s a p p l i e d to the case study are problem s t r u c t u r i n g t e c h n i q u e s . These t e c h n i q u e s h e l p t o ensure t h a t the i s s u e s and f a c t o r s c r i t i c a l t o d e f i n i t i o n of the p o l i c y problem a re i d e n t i f i e d and s t r u c t u r e d f o r a n a l y s i s . S e c t i o n 3.3 p r o v i d e s a d e t a i l e d r e v i e w 7 of these t e c h n i q u e s , i n c l u d i n g the procedure f o r a p p l y i n g them to t h i s case study. Chapter F i v e i s devoted t o the a p p l i c a t i o n of these t e c h n i q u e s , and the d e f i n i t i o n of t h e i r r e s u l t s . The problem s t r u c t u r e f o r t h i s case study i s developed u s i n g two t e c h n i q u e s of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s the " d e f i n i t i o n and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of a p r o b l e m a t i c s i t u a t i o n " (O'Shaughnessy , 1972, p.23). T h i s t e c h n i q u e , when combined w i t h the r e l a t e d t e c h n i q u e of h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s , would p r o v i d e answers t o the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . That i s , i t would f a c i l i t a t e the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s , and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y . I t would a l s o a l l o w f o r the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c a u s a l f a c t o r s as i n t e r n a l o r e x t e r n a l to the p r o c e s s of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s w i l l be f u r t h e r examined ( i n Chapter F i v e ) u s i n g the method of a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . T h i s method aims at the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the a s s u m p t i o n s of p o l i c y makers i n v o l v e d i n the s e l e c t e d c a s e . I t i s d e s i g n e d to i n t r o d u c e the d i v e r g e n t p o s i t i o n s of p o l i c y makers i n t o t h i s case s t u d y , a l o n g w i t h u n c o v e r i n g new p e r s p e c t i v e s on the "pros and cons" of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l a l s o be u s e f u l i n c h e c k i n g the r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , and f o r f u r t h e r a r t i c u l a t i o n of the p o l i c y problem. These t e c h n i q u e s , w h i l e p r o v i d i n g f o r the d e f i n i t i o n of i m p o r t a n t background i n f o r m a t i o n , w i l l not p r o v i d e a framework 8 f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . T h i s framework i s developed u s i n g the t e c h n i q u e s of "a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate." 1.2.3 S t r u c t u r e d P o l i c y Debate In t h i s case study, because n e i t h e r of the revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c i e s have been o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o f o r e c a s t the outcome of t h e i r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i n o r d e r to a s s e s s t h e i r p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t s . The method of f o r e c a s t i n g used to t h i s end i s known as s c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g . S c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g p r o v i d e s the v e h i c l e to a s s e s s the i m p a c t s of "what i f " q u e s t i o n s . For i n s t a n c e , the t h i r d , f o u r t h , and f i f t h s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s are p r e d i c a t e d on "what i f " s i t u a t i o n s . The t h i r d s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n asks (what) i f a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism were not implemented, what would the i m p a c t s be? The f o u r t h and f i f t h s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s ask (what) i f c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n was implemented, what would be the i m p a c t s on program o p e r a t i o n s and agency o p e r a t i o n s ? In the c o u r s e of the l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s , I a t t e m p t e d to i d e n t i f y a t e c h n i q u e or t e c h n i q u e s f o r f r a m i n g these s c e n a r i o s . I t was hoped t h a t such a t e c h n i q u e would p r o v i d e a means t o i d e n t i f y i m p l i c i t r e a s o n i n g , d e v e l o p c r i t i q u e s f o r the p r e m i s e s s u p p o r t i n g the s c e n a r i o s , and complement the n o r m a t i v e approach of t h i s study. Dunn's model f o r a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate was f i n a l l y chosen as the framework t o develop the "what i f " q u e s t i o n s f o r 9 t h i s a n a l y s i s . T h i s model c o n t a i n s seven elements t h a t are arranged s e q u e n t i a l l y t o l e a d the a n a l y s t or r e a d e r from a n e u t r a l p i e c e of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n " , through a number of p o l i c y sub-arguments and r e b u t t a l s to a f i n a l c o n c l u s i o n (1981, p.43) U s i n g t h i s model, t h r e e p o l i c y s u b - i s s u e s are d e f i n e d . The f i r s t c o n c erns the u n c e r t a i n t y , or v u l n e r a b i l i t y of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y t o l e g i s l a t i v e v e t o . The second i s s u e concerns the i m p a c t s on the program i f a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i s not implemented, and the t h i r d i s s u e c o n c e r n s the i m p a c t s of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s . Based on these i s s u e s , a recommendation w i l l be made to suggest an optimum p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . Each o f t h e s e t h r e e i s s u e s can be c o n s i d e r e d as a p r e m i s e f o r or a g a i n s t a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y . U l t i m a t e l y , the t e s t s of these p r e m i s e s w i l l a f f o r d an answer to the problem s t a t e m e n t and the f i n a l t h r e e s u b s i d a r y q u e s t i o n s . In o r d e r to t e s t t h e s e p r e m i s e s , Cook and S c i o l i ' s model of p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s w i l l be a p p l i e d to s c e n a r i o s based on t h e s e p r e m i s e s . Two d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s w i l l d e t a i l program o p e r a t i o n s between J u l y of 1987 and J u l y of 1989, f i r s t f o r a PUC program w i t h no means of revenue r e c o v e r y , and second, under c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . I n c l u d e d are d e s c r i p t i o n s of the o p e r a t i o n of a r e s e r v a t i o n system, maintenance a c t i v i t i e s , and agency p r i o r i t i z a t i o n of the program r e l a t i v e to o t h e r programs. E s s e n t i a l l y , w i t h the 10 a p p l i c a t i o n of an impact a n a l y s i s , these s c e n a r i o s become the p o i n t of e v a l u a t i o n and c o m parison f o r the two a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s . 1.2.4 P o l i c y Impact A n a l y s i s Cook and S c i o l i suggest t h a t w h i l e p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i s concerned w i t h "what causes a p o l i c y " , p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s i s concerned w i t h "what a p o l i c y causes" (1975, p.95-96). In t h i s case s t u d y , p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s i s used to d e velop f o r e c a s t s of i m p a c t s of the r e s p e c t i v e p o l i c i e s (as d e s c r i b e d above) on program o b j e c t i v e s . Two t y p e s of program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be a d d r e s s e d i n the f o r e c a s t of i m p a c t s . P r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s are i n t e r n a l t o the agency and are a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i n n a t u r e . Outcome o b j e c t i v e s are e x t e r n a l to the program, and are a " s p e c i f i c s o c i o - p h y s i c a l t a r g e t " (Cook and S c i o l i , 1975 p. 95). The o b j e c t i v e s used f o r t h i s s t u d y a r e taken from AK DPOR p o l i c y s t a t e m e n t s and from PUC program o p e r a t i n g p o l i c y . Performance measurement c r i t e r i a a re used t o i n d i c a t e how e f f e c t i v e l y and e f f i c i e n t l y a g i v e n a s p e c t of a program s c e n a r i o may or may not be i n a c h i e v i n g s e l e c t e d o b j e c t i v e s . F i v e performance measurement c r i t e r i a are used: (1) The number of c a b i n u s e r s ; (2) number of c a b i n s open t o the p u b l i c on a r e n t a l b a s i s ; (3) number of c o m p l a i n t s about c a b i n c o n d i t i o n ; 11 (4) number of s t a f f maintenance hours per c a b i n ; (5) amount of funds a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n s and development. By f o r e c a s t i n g , f o r i n s t a n c e , the number of c a b i n u s e r s o r t h e number o f s t a f f m a i n t e n a n c e h o u r s p e r c a b i n , i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o d e f i n e the i m p a c t s of a g i v e n p o l i c y on program o b j e c t i v e s . Next, i t w i l l be n e c e s s a r y to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t the p o l i c y arguments made i n the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. Having s u b s t a n t i a t e d or d i s c r e d i t e d the t h r e e p o l i c y arguments, i t w i l l then be p o s s i b l e t o make a c o n c l u s i o n about the optimum revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e s s . 1.3 ORGANIZATION AND RESULTS OF ANALYSIS The o r g a n i z a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s g e n e r a l l y f o l l o w s the sequence d e s c r i b e d i n the p r e v i o u s pages. Chapter Two p r o v i d e s an o v e r v i e w of the PUC program, revenue r e c o v e r y c o n s t r a i n t s , p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , and the d e f i n i t i o n of the problem s t a t e m e n t . Chapter Three i s the f i r s t of two c h a p t e r s f o c u s i n g on the development of a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r the case study. The scope of a n a l y s i s i s d e f i n e d , and the procedure f o r problem s t r u c t u r i n g methods ( i . e . , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s ) i s r e v i e w e d . Chapter Four d e s c r i b e s the development of an a n a l y s i s framework f o r the s u b - i s s u e s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the o v e r a l l p o l i c y p roblem, and r e v i e w s l i t e r a t u r e c o n s i d e r e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n 12 the study. A l s o d e t a i l e d i s the procedure of s t r u c t u r i n g a ' p o l i c y debate and d e v e l o p i n g a p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . Chapter F i v e r e t u r n s to the s u b s t a n t i v e p o l i c y i s s u e s w i t h the a p p l i c a t i o n o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n and a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p r o c e s s , revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e d u r e s , and program o p e r a t i o n s are d e s c r i b e d f o r each p o l i c y i n o r d e r t o uncover t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses ( i n answer to s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n number one). A l s o , a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y are i d e n t i f i e d f o r each p o l i c y ( s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n number two). An a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i s a p p l i e d to the p o l i c y makers p r o p o s i n g the two p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s : the agency d i r e c t o r ( s u p p o r t s program r e c e i p t s ) and the park s u p e r i n t e n d e n t (proposed c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s ) . From t h i s , the b a s i c p r e m i s e s of each p o l i c y a c t o r are i d e n t i f i e d , and used to a r t i c u l a t e the unanswered i s s u e s of c o n t e n t i o n f o r each p o l i c y . These i s s u e s are framed i n a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate i n Chapter S i x . Three i s s u e s and r e b u t t a l s are i d e n t i f i e d : the u n c e r t a i n t y of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y , the i m p a c t s on program o b j e c t i v e s from o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t revenue r e c o v e r y , and the i m p a c t s on program o b j e c t i v e s from c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s . Based on these i s s u e s , a t e n t a t i v e c l a i m i s made f o r an optimum revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y . The l a t t e r two i s s u e s are t r a n s l a t e d i n t o s c e n a r i o s o f p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , f o r a f o r e c a s t of i m p a c t s on program o p e r a t i o n s . These f o r e c a s t s are developed to a d dress the f i n a l 13 t h r e e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s i n t h i s t h e s i s . These f o r e c a s t s w i l l s u b s t a n t i a t e o r d i s c r e d i t the p r e v i o u s l y made recommendation f o r an optimum p o l i c y . That i s , i t would r e t u r n t o the c o n c l u s i o n of the p r e v i o u s l y d e f i n e d p o l i c y argument and p r o v i d e f o r i t s e v a l u a t i o n . In doing so, i t w i l l p r o v i d e the means t o a n s w e r i n g the problem s t a t e m e n t . C h a p t e r Seven i s a summary o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s c a s e s t u d y . M e t h o d o l o g i c a l and a n a l y t i c a l c o n c l u s i o n s are o f f e r e d t o the problem s t a t e m e n t and s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s , a l o n g w i t h f u r t h e r i s s u e s o r i n s i g h t s r a i s e d by t h i s a n a l y s i s . 1.4 DEFINITION OF TERMS The r e a d e r w i l l e n counter the f o l l o w i n g terms on a r e g u l a r b a s i s throughout t h i s s tudy. The d e f i n i t i o n and/or a b b r e v i a t i o n f o r the terms a re g i v e n below. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor - a D i v i s i o n of the A l a s k a Department of N a t u r a l Resources; r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the o p e r a t i o n of the A l a s k a p u b l i c use c a b i n program; r e f e r r e d t o as "the D i v i s i o n " or "the agency." User f e e - i n t h i s case, a charge l e v i e d by a u n i t of s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t t o t h e p u b l i c f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n o f a s p e c i a l s e r v i c e by t h a t agency. Program r e c e i p t s account - an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e mechanism used by s t a t e government i n A l a s k a t o account f o r , and a l l o c a t e program user f e e revenues back to the agency r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the o p e r a t i o n of t h a t program. C o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n - c o n t r a c t maintenance and o p e r a t i o n of a p u b l i c f a c i l i t y by a p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l o r c o r p o r a t i o n ; the o p e r a t o r would be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the r e c o v e r y of user f e e s , and the a l l o c a t i o n of a perc e n t a g e of those f e e s t o f a c i l i t y maintenance and development. 14 Performance measurement c r i t e r i a i n d i c a t i o r s of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s or e f f i c i e n c y of a g i v e n a s p e c t of a program i n a c h i e v i n g program o b j e c t i v e s . P o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n - the o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n of a body of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e g o a l s , o b j e c t i v e s , and p r o c e d u r a l g u i d e l i n e s , i n c l u d i n g any program a c t i v i t i e s or p r e p a r a t i o n s n e c e s s a r y t o a c h i e v e a d e s i r e d outcome. P o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n v a r i a b l e s - v a r i a b l e s i n t e r n a l t o the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , "can be or have been amenable to p o l i c y c o n t r o l " by p o l i c y makers (Coleman, 1975, p.24). P o l i c y outcome - the r e s u l t s of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y from the i n t e r a c t i o n between p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n v a r i a b l e s and p o l i c y environment v a r i a b l e s . P o l i c y e n v i r o n m e n t - human and non-human s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s t h a t a re e x t e r n a l t o the i n f l u e n c e of p o l i c y makers (Coleman, 1975, p.24). Program o b j e c t i v e s - i n c l u d e p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s and program outcome o b j e c t i v e s ; the former emphasizes a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s p e c t s of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , the l a t t e r emphasizes a t a r g e t o r g o a l e x t e r n a l to the program. Program a c t i v i t i e s - the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a program d e l i v e r y system. 15 CHAPTER 2 CASE STUDY OVERVIEW 2.1 INTRODUCTION T h i s c h a p t e r r e v i e w s the h i s t o r y of PUC program development, management c o n s t r a i n t s c r i t i c a l t o the d e f i n i t i o n of the t h e s i s problem s t a t e m e n t , and p r e v i o u s l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s f o r the revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c i e s i n q u e s t i o n . P a r t s of the t e x t i n s e c t i o n 2.2 arec adapted w i t h m o d i f i c a t i o n from the P u b l i c Use Cabin Program Management P l a n P u b l i c  Review D r a f t , w r i t t e n by t h i s a u t h o r i n 1985. 2.2 RECREATION CABIN PROGRAMS IN ALASKA Today i n A l a s k a t h e r e a re r o u g h l y 230 p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l c a b i n s , l i m i t e d r e g i o n a l l y t o Southeast A l a s k a , the Kenai P e n i n s u l a , P r i n c e W i l l i a m Sound, and the Kodiak a r c h i p e l a g o . A l l but one o f t h e s y s t e m s o f c a b i n s a r e o p e r a t e d by a g e n c i e s of the U n i t e d S t a t e s f e d e r a l government; the one e x c e p t i o n i s the A l a s k a S t a t e Park System. The p r i m a r y o p e r a t o r s are the US F o r e s t S e r v i c e w i t h 189 c a b i n s i n the Tongass and Chugach N a t i o n a l F o r e s t s , the US F i s h and W i l d l i f e S e r v i c e w i t h 14 c a b i n s a t the K o d i a k N a t i o n a l W i l d l i f e Refuge and Kenai N a t i o n a l W i l d l i f e Refuge, the AK DPOR w i t h 11 c a b i n s , the US Bureau of Land Management w i t h 3 c a b i n s , and the US N a t i o n a l Park S e r v i c e w i t h 3 c a b i n s . 16 R e c r e a t i o n a l c a b i n s are a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y l o c a t e d o f f the A l a s k a S t a t e Highway System, w i t h a c c e s s t o c a b i n s a f f o r d e d by f o o t , boat, o r p l a n e . F o r e s t S e r v i c e s u r v e y s show t h a t summer occupancy ( i n c l u d i n g l a t e s p r i n g and e a r l y f a l l ) runs a t n e a r l y 100 p e r c e n t f o r those c a b i n s a c c e s s e d by f o o t . In 1983, the Chugach N a t i o n a l F o r e s t c a b i n system had 18,680 v i s i t o r days o f occupancy (a v i s i t o r day i s one 12 hour p e r i o d o f occupancy). Average annual occupancy per c a b i n i n the Chugach N a t i o n a l F o r e s t was f o r t y p e r c e n t , w i t h a number of c a b i n s e x c e e d i n g e i g h t y p e r c e n t occupancy. 2.2.1 Program Demand and Agency Response Surveys of p u b l i c o p i n i o n i n d i c a t e a c o n t i n u i n g demand f o r the ex p a n s i o n of p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n systems. A study of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s ' p r e f e r e n c e f o r r e c r e a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s on F e d e r a l l a n d s i n A l a s k a d e t e r m i n e d t h a t s i x t y - f o u r p e r c e n t of those p o l l e d f a v o r e d the development of p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s . A demand assessment by the USFS d e t e r m i n e d t h a t over the next decade a p p r o x i m a t e l y 40 a d d i t i o n a l c a b i n s would be needed i n the Chugach N a t i o n a l F o r e s t t o s a t i s f y p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e s i n p o p u l a t i o n and r e c r e a t i o n demand. Yet, because of budget c u t b a c k s the USFS reduced i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n g o a l of 40 c a b i n s t o 20 c a b i n s i n the next ten y e a r s . 17 There i s a l s o a l a r g e demand f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s on s t a t e managed l a n d s . In a s t a t e w i d e survey undertaken f o r the A l a s k a Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n P l a n (AK DPOR, 1981, p.39), the number one p r e f e r e n c e f o r s t a t e p r o v i s i o n of new types of r e c r e a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s was p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s . The AK DPOR, as the s t a t e agency mandated to p r o v i d e f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n needs on s t a t e l a n d s , has responded t o t h i s demand w i t h the c o n s t r u c t i o n o r r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of 13 p u b l i c use c a b i n s , and has c o n t i n u e d a t t e m p t s to overcome major program development c o n s t r a i n t s . T h i s case study i s concerned w i t h these c o n s t r a i n t s , and the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d t o overcome them. 2.2.2 S t a t e F a c i l i t y Development Between 1984 and 1986 the AK DPOR developed f o u r p i l o t systems f o r p u b l i c use c a b i n s (PUC) around the s t a t e . These systems, c o n s i d e r e d t o be the p r o t o t y p e of a much l a r g e r program, are c o m p r i s e d of two t o f o u r c a b i n s each. The systems are c o n s i d e r e d as e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o t o t y p e s because the o p e r a t i o n o f s u c h a p r o g r a m i s a w h o l l y new e n d e a v o r f o r t h e DPOR. The f i r s t s y s t e m o f c a b i n s b r o u g h t on l i n e i n 1984 and 1985 was c o n v e r t e d from l e a s e c a b i n s i n the Nancy Lake S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area (NLSRA). In thos e y e a r s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y $5000 was d i v e r t e d from C e n t r a l O f f i c e and Area O f f i c e accounts t o fund the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of the c a b i n s (AK DPOR, 1986c). As we 18 s h a l l s e e , t h i s was t o f u l f i l l a r e q u e s t f r o m t h e G o v e r n o r t o i n i t i a t e program development w i t h o u t a f i s c a l a p p r o p r i a t i o n . L e g i s l a t i o n e s t a b l i s h i n g the 22,000 acr e Shuyak I s l a n d S t a t e Park i n 1984 i n c l u d e d f u n d i n g f o r the development and o p e r a t i o n of a system of PUCs. In 1985 and 1986, f o u r new PUCs were b u i l t on t h i s i s l a n d , w i t h these f a c i l i t i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g the second and newest system of c a b i n s o p e r a t e d by the agency. The t h i r d s y s t e m i s made up o f t h r e e c a b i n s l o c a t e d i n the Chena R i v e r S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area near F a i r b a n k s . The f o u r t h and s m a l l e s t system are two c a b i n s o p e r a t e d under c o o p e r a t i v e management agreement from the USFS i n Southeast A l a s k a . 2.2.3 S t a t e Program Development C o n c e p t u a l s u p p o r t f o r a PUC program by the D i v i s i o n i s documented as f a r back as the l a t e 1970s; l e g i s l a t i v e s u p p ort d i d not come u n t i l 1984. In the 1984 s e s s i o n , a s m a l l a p p r o p r i a t i o n was a t t a c h e d to the DPOR budget to undertake p l a n n i n g f o r , and the development of a p i l o t system of PUCs. T h i s f u n d i n g was l a t e r " r e d - l i n e d " (vetoed) out of the D i v i s i o n budget by the Governor. The o p i n i o n of the Governor was t h a t the agency had adequate funds to develop the program " i n -house" w i t h o u t a s p e c i a l l e g i s l a t i v e a p p r o p r i a t i o n . The development of the program c o u l d not have been a c h i e v e d w i t h o u t the c o n t i n u e d s u pport of the agency d i r e c t o r . The PUC p r o g r a m was e n v i s i o n e d t o be a m a j o r component of a new 19 breed of r e c r e a t i o n programs f o r the agency. These programs would be des i g n e d t o r e c o v e r use fe e s f o r o p e r a t i o n s , l e s s e n i n g agency dependency on s t a t e s u b s i d i e s f o r program maintenance. In the summer of 1984, the d e c i s i o n was made t o undertake r e s e a r c h f o r the p l a n n i n g , development and o p e r a t i o n of the program. The p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s was an o p p o r t u n i t y to i d e n t i f y management c o n s t r a i n t s , c o s t s , and s t r a t e g i e s , b e f o r e any c o s t l y m i s t a k e s were made. The program p l a n was a l s o d e s i g n e d to a d dress the co n c e r n s of f i e l d p e r s o n n e l r e l u c t a n t t o take on new management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . T h i s a u t h o r was a s s i g n e d the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of r e s e a r c h i n g and w r i t i n g the " c a b i n p l a n " , which was l a t e r f o r m a l i z e d as program p o l i c y and proc e d u r e . Other r e l a t e d a s s i g n m e n t s i n c l u d e d the d r a f t i n g of l e g i s l a t i o n t o e s t a b l i s h revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the program, and i n t e r - d i v i s i o n program c o o r d i n a t i o n w i t h i n the Department of N a t u r a l Resources (the DPOR i s one of seven d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n the Department). F u r t h e r , the a u t h o r was i n v o l v e d i n c a b i n s i t e s e l e c t i o n a t Shuyak I s l a n d S t a t e Park, and c o o r d i n a t i o n of l o g i s t i c s u p p o r t f o r c a b i n c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h a t u n i t . Research f o r the c a b i n p l a n i n c l u d e d e x t e n s i v e meetings w i t h d i v i s i o n p e r s o n n e l , f e d e r a l agency r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , and members of both the p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s . The PUC p l a n has f o u r major components. The f i r s t component i s a s e t of program g o a l s t h a t compliment the o v e r a l l p o l i c y g o a l s of the 20 agency. In a l a t e r c h a p t e r of t h i s a n a l y s i s , t h e s e g o a l s are used as a b a s e l i n e f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c i e s . The second and t h i r d components of the p l a n a re p o l i c i e s and p r o c e d u r e s f o r s i t e p l a n n i n g , f a c i l i t y maintenance, and program o p e r a t i o n s . The f o u r t h component i s c o s t e s t i m a t e s of c a p i t a l and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r the phased development of the program. 2.3 REVENUE RECOVERY CONSTRAINTS A l t h o u g h o f t e n d i v i d e d over management and o p e r a t i o n s i s s u e s , f i e l d s t a f f and f r o n t o f f i c e p e r s o n n e l were q u i c k t o come t o agreement on the p r i m a r y o b s t a c l e f o r PUC program development: the i n a b i l i t y t o r e c o v e r program revenues. F i e l d managers were h e s i t a n t t o ac c e p t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the o p e r a t i o n of a program, and a t t e n d a n t c o s t s , w i t h o u t the guarantee of an annual a p p r o p r i a t i o n . S y m p a t h e t i c t o t h i s p o s i t i o n , the agency d i r e c t o r was a l s o of the o p i n i o n t h a t the days of l a r g e s t a t e o p e r a t i n g budgets were dr a w i n g t o a c l o s e . T h e r e f o r e , i t was f e l t t h a t new o p e r a t i o n s s u c h as t h e PUC program s h o u l d have the a b i l i t y t o c a p t u r e revenues from use f e e s f o r maintenance and development purposes. T h i s concept w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o i n t h i s a n a l y s i s as revenue r e c o v e r y . P r e s e n t l y t h e r e i s a model of revenue r e c o v e r y f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n c a b i n s o p e r a t e d i n A l a s k a . The Granger-Thye Act a u t h o r i z e s the r e c o v e r y of c a b i n use f e e s s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r the 21 maintenance and development of f a c i l i t i e s by the US F o r e s t S e r v i c e . A l l revenues from c a b i n use fees are accounted s e p a r a t e l y from o t h e r F o r e s t S e r v i c e revenue s o u r c e s . That amount i s then a u t o m a t i c a l l y a l l o c a t e d to the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , b y p a s s i n g the p r o c e s s of l e g i s l a t i v e a p p r o p r i a t i o n , and a l l the u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n v o l v e d i n t h i s p r o c e s s . S i m i l a r revenue r e c o v e r y p r a c t i c e s are a d m i n i s t e r e d by the US N a t i o n a l Park S e r v i c e and s t a t e p a r k systems throughout the c o n t i n e n t a l U n i t e d S t a t e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i n t h i s case the DPOR i s c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l y c o n s t r a i n e d from r e c o v e r i n g revenues f o r program o p e r a t i o n s . A l a s k a S t a t u t e (AS) 41.21.030 s t a t e s : A l l monies r e c e i v e d from the o p e r a t i o n of park and r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g money from c o n c e s s i o n s , r e n t a l s , o r d o n a t i o n s , s h a l l be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund of the s t a t e . T h e r e f o r e , w h i l e the agency can and does charge a use f e e f o r the PUC program, i t must compete w i t h a l l o t h e r a g e n c i e s f o r the r e c o v e r y of those funds, v i a l e g i s l a t i v e a p p r o p r i a t i o n . A second c o n s t r a i n t to revenue r e c o v e r y w i l l become e f f e c t i v e J u l y 1, 1987. House B i l l 696, "An Act R e l a t i n g t o the F i n a n c i a l A d m i n i s t r a t i o n of Government" (known i n f o r m a l l y as the "Procurement B i l l " ) , would "sunset" a l l programs f o r which a f e e i s charged: S e c t i o n 1 ( a ) : A s t a t e agency may not charge f o r the p r o v i s i o n of s t a t e s e r v i c e s u n l e s s the charge i s a u t h o r i z e d by s t a t u t e . 22 For the D i v i s i o n , t h i s would p r o h i b i t the c o l l e c t i o n of f e e s f o r c a b i n use p e r m i t s , s p o r t f i s h i n g guide p e r m i t s , and c o m m e r c i a l o u t f i t t e r p e r m i t s . For the c a b i n program, t h e r e are two p o l i c y o p t i o n s t h a t might be adopted to overcome these revenue r e c o v e r y c o n s t r a i n t s . The a n a l y s i s of the these two a l t e r n a t i v e s i s the s u b j e c t of t h i s case study. 2.4 REVENUE RECOVERY ALTERNATIVES The f i r s t revenue r e c o v e r y a l t e r n a t i v e , q u i t e s i m i l a r t o the F o r e s t S e r v i c e p r o c e d u r e , i s r e f e r r e d to as a program r e c e i p t s  a c c o u n t, o r i n s h o r t , program r e c e i p t s . The second a l t e r n a t i v e method of revenue r e c o v e r y would be through c o n c e s s i o n  operatio.n of the c a b i n s . Program revenues would be r e c o v e r e d by the c o n c e s s i o n a i r e , and an pe r c e n t a g e of the g r o s s revenue would be r e g u l a r l y d e p o s i t e d i n a s p e c i a l maintenance fund by the o p e r a t o r . T h i s arrangement would c i r c u m v e n t the mandated d e p o s i t of revenues i n the G e n e r a l Fund, and t h e o r e t i c a l l y g uarantee t h a t adequate funds were a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n s and development. 2.4.1 L e g i s l a t i v e I n i t i a t i v e s In response to the c o n s t r a i n t s posed by HB 696, the D i v i s i o n has proposed t h a t the governor i n t r o d u c e an omnibus "fee b i l l " t o the l e g i s l a t u r e i n the 1987 s e s s i o n . I f passed, t h i s b i l l would s t a t u t o r i a l l y a u t h o r i z e the d i v i s i o n to c o l l e c t and r e c o v e r f e e s f o r a number of economic programs, i n c l u d i n g the c a b i n program. The language from the proposed fee b i l l 23 i l l u s t r a t e s how revenue would be r e c o v e r e d u s i n g a system of program r e c e i p t s . S e c t i o n 1(c) of the b i l l r e a d s : Fees c o l l e c t e d under t h i s s u b s e c t i o n s h a l l be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund. The c o m m i s s i o n e r of a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a l l s e p e r a t e l y account f o r f e e s c o l l e c t e d and d e p o s i t e d by the c o m m i s s i o n e r under t h i s s u b s e c t i o n . The annual e s t i m a t e d b a l a n c e i n the account may [ i t a l i c s mine] be a p p r o p r i a t e d by the l e g i s l a t u r e to the Department of N a t u r a l Resources to c a r r y out the purposes of t h i s s e c t i o n . (AK DPOR, 1986e) The f o r m a l i n t e n t of t h i s p r o p o s a l i s t o p r o v i d e l e g i s l a t i v e o v e r s i g h t f o r the a l l o c a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s , and t o a u t o m a t i c a l l y i n c l u d e a r e q u e s t f o r PUC program r e c e i p t s i n the annual budget p r o p o s a l . The i n f o r m a l i n t e n t i s t o encourage a l m o s t a u t o m a t i c a p p r o p r i a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s by e s t a b l i s h i n g a l e g i s l a t i v e p r e c e d e n c t of an annual a p p r o p r i a t i o n . Such a p r e c e d e n t would g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the program would be r e g u l a r l y funded. Two b i l l s d e s i g n e d t o r e c o v e r PUC program revenue t h r o u g h program r e c e i p t s were i n t r o d u c e d by members of the A l a s k a House of R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s and Senate i n the 1986 s e s s i o n of the l e g i s l a t u r e . The b i l l s e n j o y e d u n i v e r s a l support u n t i l the P r e s i d e n t of the Senate added an amendment t h a t would g i v e t i t l e and o w n e r s h i p o f a one a c r e p a r c e l o f s t a t e l a n d t o any person who had b u i l t an u n a u t h o r i z e d s t r u c t u r e on t h a t l a n d . The m o d i f i e d b i l l was u l t i m a t e l y v e t o e d by the governor a f t e r a s t r o n g o u t c r y from e n v i r o n m e n t a l advocacy groups and the o r i g i n a l s ponsors of the l e g i s l a t i o n . 24 2.4.2 Co n c e s s i o n s P r o p o s a l R e c o g n i z i n g the h i s t o r y of f a i l e d l e g i s l a t i v e p r o p o s a l s , i n August of 1986 the Area S u p e r i n t e n d e n t r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the Nancy Lake S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area proposed to develop c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the c a b i n s i n t h a t u n i t ( t h i s p r o c e s s i s d e s c r i b e d i n d e t a i l i n s e c t i o n 5.4). T h i s development was proposed to take p l a c e i n the w i n t e r of 1987, c o n c u r r e n t w i t h agency a t t e m p t s t o r e c e i v e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n f o r program r e c e i p t s . In e f f e c t , c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n would become a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y i n the case t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y was not a u t h o r i z e d by the l e g i s l a t u r e . In the i n t e r v e n i n g p e r i o d s i n c e t h i s author c o n c l u d e d d a t a c o l l e c t i o n f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s , i t has become u n c e r t a i n whether or not the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t i n t e n d s t o c a r r y out h i s o r i g i n a l p r o p o s a l . Yet t h i s p r o p o s a l , unique i n i t s d e p a r t u r e from the chosen agency p o l i c y of program r e c e i p t s , i l l u s t r a t e s an i s s u e as o l d as the PUC program i t s e l f . T h i s i s s u e , a l t h o u g h d i s c u s s e d i n f o r m a l l y and argued among agency s t a f f , has never r e c e i v e d f o r m a l a n a l y s i s by the agency. The essence of the revenue r e c o v e r y i s s u e , summarized as a q u e s t i o n , forms the problem statement f o r t h i s t h e s i s : Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s or c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s the most e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g the c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and f u t u r e development of the PUC program? 25 In the next c h a p t e r , t h i s q u e s t i o n and accompanying s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l , a l o n g w i t h the t e c h n i q u e s t h a t might be a p p l i e d f o r the a n a l y s i s of t h i s i s s u e . 26 CHAPTER 3 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROBLEM STRUCTURING TECHNIQUES 3.1 INTRODUCTION The p r i m a r y purpose of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o r e v i e w and develop methods of i d e n t i f y i n g and s t r u c t u r i n g the p o l i c y i s s u e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t o t h i s case study. T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e the f o u n d a t i o n f o r a l a t e r e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c i e s . Because methods of e v a l u a t i o n a re d i s t i n c t l y d i f f e r e n t from methods of problem s t r u c t u r i n g , they w i l l be addressed i n Chapter Four. Chapter Three b e g i n s w i t h an e x a m i n a t i o n of the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the problem s t a t e m e n t , and an a r t i c u l a t i o n o f s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s and o b j e c t i v e s f o r the a n a l y s i s . Next, the scope of the a n a l y s i s i s d e f i n e d . T h i s i n c l u d e s the d e f i n i t i o n of t e r m i n o l o g y and c o n c e p t s t h a t w i l l be used throughout t h i s t h e s i s . The t h i r d major component of t h i s c h a p t e r i s the r e v i e w , s e l e c t i o n , and development of problem s t r u c t u r i n g methods. These methods a r e used t o suggest the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p o s s i b l e causes of p o l i c y p roblems, from the p e r s p e c t i v e o f both t h i s a n a l y s t and agency r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n v o l v e d i n 27 p o l i c y development. T h i s approach w i l l help ensure a comprehensive d e f i n i t i o n of the i s s u e s unique t o t h i s case. 3.1.1 Problem Statement S i g n i f i c a n c e In the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r , we saw t h a t a c o m b i n a t i o n of s t a t u t o r i a l c o n s t r a i n t s on the PUC program, and the proposed p o l i c y r e s p o n s e s to the s e c o n s t r a i n t s , l e d to the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a l o n g - s t a n d i n g q u e s t i o n as to the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of each approach. Framed as the problem s t a t e m e n t f o r t h i s t h e s i s , the q u e s t i o n asks: Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s the most e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g the c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and development of the PUC program? To the knowledge of t h i s a u t h o r , the AK DPOR has never f o r m a l l y undertaken the a n a l y s i s of t h i s p o l i c y q u e s t i o n . T h i s t h e s i s p r o v i d e s the o p p o r t u n i t y t o address an i s s u e w i t h i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the f u t u r e of the PUC program. Moreover, t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l p r o v i d e answers t o p o l i c y q u e s t i o n s t h a t the agency w i l l not o t h e r w i s e have the t i m e o r manpower t o ad d r e s s . Given t h i s author's l e n g t h y i n v o l v e m e n t w i t h the development of the PUC program, t h i s a n a l y s i s a l s o p r o v i d e s a new p e r s p e c t i v e on an o l d p o l i c y i s s u e . The new p e r s p e c t i v e , made from o u t s i d e of the agency, encourages a more c r i t i c a l l o o k a t agency o p e r a t i o n s , and the a p p l i c a t i o n of a w i d e r range of t e c h n i q u e s , than i f the a n a l y s i s were c a r r i e d out w i t h i n the 28 agency. F u r t h e r , i n p r o v i d i n g f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n of a wide range of t e c h n i q u e s , t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l a l l o w f o r the development of a framework t h a t can be a p p l i e d t o s i m i l a r cases i n the f u t u r e . P o l i c y a n a l y s i s by the D i v i s i o n i s f o r m a l i z e d under the framework of the D i v i s i o n Order, o r the department-wide D e c i s i o n Memoranda. The ele m e n t s of these p o l i c y making i n s t r u m e n t s i n c l u d e a s t a t e m e n t of i s s u e , background, p o l i c y o p t i o n s , and recommendations. The problem s t a t e m e n t d r a f t e d f o r t h i s t h e s i s c l o s e l y r e s e m b l e s the s t y l e taken i n the sta t e m e n t of i s s u e s f o r d e c i s i o n memos. The f o l l o w i n g a r e examples of s t a t e m e n t s of i s s u e taken from agency d e c i s i o n memos: What i s the most e f f e c t i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e f o r the D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n ? Which D i v i s i o n or D i v i s i o n s s h o u l d be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r o p e r a t i n g p u b l i c use c a b i n s a d m i n i s t e r e d by the Department of N a t u r a l Resources? The approach of the s e s t a t e m e n t s , and the sta t e m e n t of i s s u e f o r t h i s t h e s i s , i s n o r m a t i v e ; t h a t i s , the approach "attempts t o answer the q u e s t i o n of what s h o u l d be done" (Dunn, 1981, p.37). T r a n s l a t e d to t h i s case study, what s h o u l d be done to ensure c o n t i n u e d program o p e r a t i o n and development? A l t h o u g h I have suggested t h a t revenue r e c o v e r y i s a r e q u i s i t e t o program o p e r a t i o n and development, t h i s has not y e t been c o n c l u s i v e l y d e monstrated. T h i s i s s u e , among o t h e r s , i s c o n s i d e r e d a s u b s i d i a r y i s s u e of the l a r g e r p o l i c y i s s u e . The 29 means of i d e n t i f y i n g and a d d r e s s i n g such s u b - i s s u e s i s by way of the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n . 3.1.2 S u b s i d i a r y Q u e s t i o n s In o r d e r to d e t e r m i n e the most e f f e c t i v e p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , a number of accompanying s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s must a l s o be answered. In the c o n t e x t of an agency d e c i s i o n memo, these q u e s t i o n s would be c o n s i d e r e d as d i s c r e t e i s s u e s . S i m i l a r l y , t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l d evelop such d i s c r e t e q u e s t i o n s as s u b s i d i a r i e s to the o v e r a l l problem s t a t e m e n t . In the development of t h i s case study, the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s have p l a y e d a number of r o l e s . The answers to these q u e s t i o n s might suggest the o v e r a l l answer to the problem s t a t e m e n t , o r be used as a check on the c o n s i s t e n c y and l o g i c of the answer t o the problem s t a t e m e n t . F u r t h e r , they can be used to f a c i l i t a t e the r e v i e w and s e l e c t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e methods of a n a l y s i s , and as a b a s i s f o r the d e f i n i t i o n of o b j e c t i v e s f o r an a n a l y s i s . The f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s aim a t p r o v i d i n g a d e s c r i p t i o n of the two p o l i c i e s . They read: What ar e the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and the causes of these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ? I f each p o l i c y were implemented s e p a r a t e l y , a t what p o i n t i s each most v u l n e r a b l e to f a i l u r e ? 30 For t h i s a n a l y s i s , the s t r e n g t h of a p o l i c y means t h a t t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t the p o l i c y can be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented. The weakness of a p o l i c y means t h a t t h e r e a re s i g n i f i c a n t l e v e l s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the s u c c e s s f u l outcome of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The a r e a s o r phases of u n c e r t a i n t y w i l l be r e f e r r e d to as p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y . The f o l l o w i n g s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n concerns the i m p a c t s of p o l i c y f a i l u r e : What would be i m p a c t s on program o p e r a t i o n i f a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was not s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented? T h i s q u e s t i o n i s d e s i g n e d to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t the s u p p o s i t i o n t h a t revenue r e c o v e r y i s a r e q u i s i t e f o r program development. I t a l s o s u g gests the development of a s c e n a r i o of program o p e r a t i o n s i n the case of p o l i c y f a i l u r e , and then a f o r e c a s t of the r e s u l t i n g i m p a c t s . As seen i n C h a p t e r Two, a member of t h e agency s t a f f has proposed t h a t the p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y be m o d i f i e d by d e v e l o p i n g c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s as a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . The f o u r t h and f i f t h s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s a re d e s i g n e d to address the i m p a c t s of the proposed c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y : What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e PUC p r o g r a m o f t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e agency o f t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? 31 A g a i n , t h e s e q u e s t i o n s i n d i c a t e the need to develop s c e n a r i o s of program and agency o p e r a t i o n s under the m o d i f i e d p o l i c y , a l o n g w i t h methods of f o r e c a s t i n g and a s s e s s i n g the i m p a c t s of such o p e r a t i o n s . In summary, the f i v e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s can be broken i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s . The f i r s t t h r e e q u e s t i o n s are concerned w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of the problem; they w i l l p r o v i d e the v e h i c l e to a r t i c u l a t e and s t r u c t u r e the problem f o r a n a l y s i s . The l a s t two q u e s t i o n s are concerned w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of the s o l u t i o n ; they p r o v i d e the v e h i c l e to e v a l u a t e the e f f i c a c y o f the proposed s o l u t i o n . 3.1.3 O b j e c t i v e s S i x o b j e c t i v e s have been d e f i n e d f o r the development of a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r t h i s t h e s i s . These o b j e c t i v e s are arranged s e q u e n t i a l l y to r e f l e c t the o r d e r i n w h i c h they are addressed i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s . They a r e : (1) to make a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s ; (2) to e v a l u a t e a range of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r a p p l i c a t i o n to t h i s case and s i m i l a r c a s e s ; (3) t o i d e n t i f y the o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y , i n c l u d i n g the p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of each a l t e r n a t i v e ; (4) t o i n c o r p o r a t e the d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers i n the development of the p o l i c y a n a l y s i s s t r u c t u r e ; (5) t o d e v e l o p s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s under the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s ; 32 ( 6 ) to a s s e s s the impacts of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s on program o p e r a t i o n s and development; The f o u r t h o b j e c t i v e , u n t i l now u n d e f i n e d , w i l l be i m p o r t a n t i n t h a t the r e a s o n i n g of d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y makers can p r o v i d e v a l u a b l e i n s i g h t s i n t o the e f f i c a c y or c o n s t r a i n t s of a p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . 3.2 SCOPE OF ANALYSIS The scope of t h i s a n a l y s i s focuses on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between development c o n s t r a i n t s found w i t h i n the p o l i c y environment, and the outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The d e f i n i t i o n of the scope•of t h i s a n a l y s i s i s based on a P o l i c y Process Model developed by Shanks (1983, p.12): POLICY ENVIRONMENT POLICY FORMATION =P0LICY' OUTPUT POLICY IMPLEMENTATION : P O L I C Y -OUTCOME F i g u r e 3.1. P o l i c y Process Model (Shanks 1983) As i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 3.1, the model has f i v e major components: p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n , p o l i c y output, p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , p o l i c y outcome, and the p o l i c y environment. The i n t e r a c t i o n between the p o l i c y environment and p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n r e s u l t s i n p o l i c y output; t h a t output i s then implemented, w i t h 33 the i n t e r a c t i o n between the p o l i c y environment and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n r e s u l t i n g i n the p o l i c y outcome. 3.2.1 D e f i n i n g I m p l e m e n t a t i o n In t h i s case s t u d y , the agency has a l r e a d y c o mpleted the p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n s t a g e f o r each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e ( t h e r e s u l t of t h i s i s l a b e l l e d as p o l i c y o u t p u t ) . F u r t h e r , the agency has adopted f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n one of the two revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c i e s , a l t h o u g h the p o l i c y w i l l r e q u i r e f u r t h e r a u t h o r i z a t i o n b e f o r e i t can be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . T h e r e f o r e , I suggest t h a t the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p r o c e s s has begun w i t h the a d o p t i o n of the p o l i c y . Pressman and W i l d a v s k y (1973) would argue o t h e r w i s e ; they suggest t h a t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s h o u l d not r e f e r t o problems of a u t h o r i z i n g a p o l i c y , but problems t h a t o ccur once a p o l i c y has been o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e the argument would f o l l o w t h a t my a n a l y s i s s h o u l d f o c u s on p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n , as the p o l i c y has not y e t been a u t h o r i z e d . Van Meter and Van Horn's d e f i n i t i o n s u b s t a n t i a t e s my o r i g i n a l s u p p o s i t i o n . They w r i t e : P o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n encompasses those a c t i o n s by p u b l i c or p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s ( o r groups) t h a t are d i r e c t e d a t the achievement of o b j e c t i v e s s e t f o r t h i n p r i o r p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . T h i s i n c l u d e s both one t ime e f f o r t s to t r a n s f o r m d e c i s i o n s i n t o o p e r a t i o n a l terms, as w e l l as c o n t i n u i n g e f f o r t s t o a c h i e v e the l a r g e and s m a l l d e c i s i o n s mandated by p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . (1975, p.447) 34 T h e r e f o r e , t h i s s t u d y concerns the "one t i m e e f f o r t s [of the D i v i s i o n ] t o t r a n s f o r m d e c i s i o n s [ t o adopt a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y ] i n t o o p e r a t i o n a l terms." (Van Meter and Van Horn, 1975, p.447). P o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o r t h i s case i s taken t o mean both the program a c t i v i t i e s n e c e s s a r y to a c h i e v e a d e s i r e d p o l i c y outcome, a l o n g w i t h any n e c e s s a r y p r e p a r a t i o n s . The ele m e n t s of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a r e v a r i a b l e s t h a t are s u b j e c t to p o l i c y c o n t r o l . Coleman has d e f i n e d these elements as p o l i c y  v a r i a b l e s . P o l i c y v a r i a b l e s "can be or have been amenable t o p o l i c y c o n t r o l " (Coleman p.24), and I suggest t h a t they are i n t e r n a l to p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . 3.2.2 P o l i c y Environment The p o l i c y environment i s c o m p r i s e d of s i t u a t i o n a l  v a r i a b l e s both human and non-human. S i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s " p l a y a p a r t i n t h e c a u s a l s t r u c t u r e w h i c h l e a d s t o t h e outcome v a r i a b l e s , and thus must be c o n t r o l l e d i n the a n a l y s i s o r d e s i g n , but a r e not s u b j e c t t o p o l i c y c o n t r o l " (Coleman, 1975, p.24) For i n s t a n c e , members of the l e g i s l a t u r e , w h i l e p l a y i n g a d e t e r m i n i n g r o l e i n the outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , a re not d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n d a i l y o p e r a t i o n s f o r a p o l i c y . I n s t e a d , they a r e e x t e r n a l t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and can be c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t of the p o l i c y environment. S i m i l a r l y , HB 696, whi c h would p r e v e n t c o l l e c t i o n of f e e s w i t h o u t s t a t u t o r i a l a u t h o r i z a t i o n , can be c o n s i d e r e d a 35 s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e of the p o l i c y e n vironment. Of s p e c i a l c o n c e r n t o t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e t h e p r o b l e m s t h a t a r i s e o u t o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s w i t h i n the p o l i c y e nvironment, and the outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . These problems w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d u s i n g methods of problem s t r u c t u r i n g . 3.3 STRUCTURING THE PROBLEM S t r u c t u r i n g a p o l i c y problem, a c c o r d i n g t o Dunn (1981), " i s the p r o c e s s of g e n e r a t i n g and t e s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s of a p r o b l e m a t i c s i t u a t i o n . " Proper s t r u c t u r i n g of the problem w i l l h e l p ensure t h a t a Type I I I E r r o r i s not made. A Type I I I E r r o r i s the p r o b a b i l i t y of s o l v i n g the wrong problem, o r i n o t h e r words, g e t t i n g the r i g h t answer f o r the wrong q u e s t i o n . " C a r e f u l p l a n n i n g and e x e c u t i o n of problem s o l v i n g s t e p s a r e i r r e l e v a n t i f the wrong problem d e f i n i t i o n has been developed" ( M i t r o f f and K i l m a n 1979b p.27). Proper s t r u c t u r i n g of a problem can a l s o h e l p to i d e n t i f y a range of problem s o l v i n g methods t h a t might be a p p l i e d t o the problem, and p o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n s f o r the problem. In the words of W i l d a v s k y , " f o r m u l a t i o n [ o f the problem] i s tantamount to p r e f i g u r i n g the s o l u t i o n " (from Dery, 1981). In my r e v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e f o r problem s t r u c t u r i n g methods, I i d e n t i f i e d two t e c h n i q u e s t h a t might a p p r o p r i a t e l y be a p p l i e d t o address the f i r s t and second s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . The r e v i e w t h a t l e d t o t h i s c h o i c e i s summarized i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . 36 3.3.1 Survey o f Methods The f i r s t s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n asks f o r a d e s c r i p t i o n of the s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y , and the c a u s a l f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . T h i s q u e s t i o n i m p l i e s the need to c l a s s i f y p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and then i d e n t i f y p o s s i b l e causes. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s a r e t h e two methods I i n t e n d t o use t o s t r u c t u r e t h e p o l i c y problem. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s has been d e f i n e d as "a t e c h n i q u e f o r c l a r i f y i n g c o n c e p t s used to d e f i n e and c l a s s i f y p r o b l e m a t i c s i t u a t i o n s " (Dunn, 1981 p.119), or "the d e f i n i t i o n and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of p r o b l e m a t i c s i t u a t i o n s " (O'Shaughnessy, 1972, p.23). There a r e two approaches to c l a s s i f y i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of p u b l i c p o l i c y : those t h a t aggregate or group c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and those t h a t d i v i d e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Grouping methods i n c l u d e p o l i c y t y p o l o g i e s (Dubnick, 1983, p.59) and l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n (O'Shaughnessy, 1973, p.24). Methods t h a t d i v i d e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are l a b e l l e d l o g i c a l d i v i s i o n . A l t h o u g h the g r o u p i n g methods l e n d t h e m s e l v e s to needs of d e s c r i p t i o n and c o m p a r i s o n , they do not p r o v i d e the framework f o r d e t a i l i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the p o l i c i e s i n q u e s t i o n . For t h i s r e a son the methods of " t y p i f y i n g p o l i c i e s " and l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w i l l not be a p p l i e d t o t h i s case study. 37 L o g i c a l d i v i s i o n i s the r e v e r s e of l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ; i t i s a p r o c e s s of s e l e c t i n g a c l a s s of c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and b r e a k i n g i t down i n t o component p a r t s (Dunn, 1981, p.119). T h i s method would p r o v i d e a means of d e t a i l i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c v a r i a b l e s of each p o l i c y . What i t does n o t p r o v i d e i s a means o f l i n k i n g t h e s e v a r i a b l e s t o a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s . H i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s , "a t e c h n i q u e f o r i d e n t i f y i n g p o s s i b l e causes of a problem s i t u a t i o n " (Dunn, 1981, p.120), w i l l p r o v i d e such a means. H i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s i s used to i d e n t i f y a range o f p o s s i b l e causes f o r a problem s i t u a t i o n , and i d e n t i f y the amount of i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y makers have over t h e s e causes. In a p r o c e s s o u t l i n e d by O'Shaughnessy (1972, p.75), the p o s s i b l e causes of p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are s y s t e m a t i z e d u s i n g a h i e r a r c h y t r e e . The causes are then c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o the amount of i n f l u e n c e a p o l i c y maker has over the c a u s a l f a c t o r s . In essence, h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s i s a m o d i f i e d form of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s aimed at i d e n t i f y i n g c a u s a l f a c t o r s . I t p r o v i d e s the a n a l y s t w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n as to whether a c a u s a l f a c t o r i s l o c a t e d i n the p o l i c y environment or the p r o c e s s o f p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . From t h i s p o i n t , i t i s up to the a n a l y s t t o c o n c l u s i v e l y i d e n t i f y the e f f e c t s of c a u s a l f a c t o r s through t e c h n i q u e s such as p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . To d e velop the problem s t r u c t u r e of t h i s case study, I w i l l a p p l y of a h y b r i d v e r s i o n of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s t h a t i n c l u d e s the c a t e g o r i e s i d e n t i f i e d f o r h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s . T h i s 38 m o d i f i e d a n a l y s i s w i l l a s s i s t the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y , p o s s i b l e causes of t hese c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and l o c a t e the source of the cause v i s a v i s i n t e r n a l or e x t e r n a l to p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . One p o s s i b l e c r i t i q u e of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s t h a t i t would f o r e c l o s e a l t e r n a t i v e c a u s a l e x p l a n a t i o n s of a problem i n the p r o c e s s of c a t e g o r i z i n g c a u s a l f a c t o r s . Such a c r i t i q u e might be p o s s i b l e i f one c o n f u s e s the o b j e c t i v e of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n p r o c e s s . The o b j e c t i v e i s not t o c l a s s i f y the e f f e c t of a c a u s a l f a c t o r on a p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . I n s t e a d the o b j e c t i v e i s to c l a s s i f y the source of the c a u s a l f a c t o r i n r e l a t i o n t o the p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . 3.3.2 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n A n a l y s i s P rocedure The f i r s t s t e p i n a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s t o c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y i d e n t i f y the components and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . Because the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o c c u r w i t h i n d i s c r e t e phases of the program, the a n a l y s i s w i l l f o c u s on p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e d u r e s , and program o p e r a t i o n s . The next s t e p i s to c l a s s i f y each phase a c c o r d i n g t o the amount of i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y makers have over i t . From t h i s i t can be d e t e r m i n e d i f the p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e of a p o l i c y problem i s i n t e r n a l or e x t e r n a l to the p r o c e s s of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . C a u s a l f a c t o r s w i l l be c l a s s i f i e d e i t h e r as s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , or p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s , f o l l o w i n g Coleman's 39 d e f i n i t i o n of v a r i a b l e s ( s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s are e x t e r n a l t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and thus o u t s i d e of the c o n t r o l of the p o l i c y maker w h i l e p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s are i n t e r n a l t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and t h e r e f o r e s u b j e c t to p o l i c y maker c o n t r o l ) . In C h a p t e r Two i t was n o t e d t h a t b o t h t h e p r e v i o u s i n i t i a t i v e s s i m i l a r to the proposed revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y c o n s e c u t i v e l y f a i l e d . The source of these f a i l u r e s were e x t e r n a l t o the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ; t h a t i s , they were s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . A l s o i n Chapter Two, we saw t h a t f i e l d p e r s o n n e l had proposed a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y to the "agency c h o i c e " f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . T h i s s u g gests a l a c k of c o n f i d e n c e or c e r t a i n t y t h a t the agency c h o i c e w i l l be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented, perhaps because of v a r i a b l e s e x t e r n a l to the p o l i c y . T h i s a l s o l e a d s to the q u e s t i o n of how c e r t a i n i t i s t h a t a g i v e n p o l i c y w i l l be implemented. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s would f a c i l i t a t e e x p l o r a t i o n of t h i s u n c e r t a i n t y i s s u e , and the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s . T h i s i s s u e c o u l d a l s o be e x p l o r e d by a s s e s s i n g the p e r s p e c t i v e s of i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y makers i n v o l v e d i n t h i s i s s u e . A s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i s a t e c h n i q u e t h a t can be used t o a r t i c u l a t e the d e f i n i t i o n of a p o l i c y problem by e x a m i n i n g the p e r s p e c t i v e s of the p o l i c y maker's i n v o l v e d i n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n f o r the PUC program. 40 3.3.3 A s s u m p t i o n a l A n a l y s i s P r o c e d u r e D i f f e r e n t p o l i c y makers h o l d d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s and p r e m i s e s i n r e g a r d s to p o l i c y problems and s o l u t i o n s ; Hok has d e f i n e d these p r e m i s e s as the r e s u l t of the " v a l u e / p o l i c y r e l a t i o n s h i p " of a p o l i c y a c t o r . A s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s " i s a t e c h n i q u e t h a t aims a t t h e . . . s y n t h e s i s of c o n f l i c t i n g a s s u mptions about p o l i c y problems" (Dunn, 1981, p.121). Dunn c a l l s the methods of a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s the "most comprehensive problem s t r u c t u r i n g process." M i t r o f f , Emshoff, and K i l m a n , the o r i g i n a t o r s of t h i s p r o c e s s , have l a b e l l e d a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s as a d i a l e c t i c a l p r o c e s s (1979a, p.584). That i s , a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s a t t e m p t s to " s y s t e m a t i c a l l y and e x p l i c i t l y c o n s i d e r d i v e r g e n t v i e w s [and a s s u m p t i o n s ] about the n a t u r e of problems and s o l u t i o n s " (Dunn, 1981, p.121). T h e r e f o r e , t h i s t e c h n i q u e would f u l f i l l the o b j e c t i v e of t h i s a n a l y s i s to i n c o r p o r a t e the p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers i n the development of the problem s t r u c t u r e . A s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s can be a p p l i e d " by groups of p o l i c y s t a k e h o l d e r s who p a r t i c i p a t e i n s t r u c t u r i n g p o l i c y problems", or as i n t h i s case, "by the i n d i v i d u a l a n a l y s t who s i m u l a t e s the a s s u m p t i o n s of s t a k e h o l d e r s i n o r d e r to conduct a reasoned debate w i t h h i m s e l f " (Dunn, 1981, p.121). Because t h i s case s t u d y i s aimed a t the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a s s u m p t i o n s , and not t h e i r s y n t h e s i s , o n l y two of the s i x sequenced s t e p s of a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s w i l l be used: s t a k e h o l d e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and a s s u m p t i o n s u r f a c i n g . The f i r s t 41 s t e p i n the p r o c e s s would be t o i d e n t i f y p o l i c y s t a k e h o l d e r s . S t a k e h o l d e r s are "any [ i n d i v i d u a l o r ] p a r t y t h a t both a f f e c t s and i s a f f e c t e d by an o r g a n i z a t i o n and i t s p o l i c i e s " ( M i t r o f f 1979a, p.586). Our a n a l y s i s w i l l f o c u s on agency s t a k e h o l d e r s ; t h a t i s , the p o l i c y makers w i t h i n the agency i m p l e m e n t i n g the program our case study i s concerned w i t h . A number of o t h e r s t a k e h o l d e r s p l a y a r o l e i n the outcome of the p o l i c y (e.g., e l e c t e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , the p u b l i c ) but do not p l a y a p a r t i n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n or a d o p t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s not u s e f u l t o i n c l u d e these p o l i c y p l a y e r s i n the case study. The second s t e p , i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the s t a k e h o l d e r s a s s u m p t i o n s , or "assumption s u r f a c i n g " , "works backwards from a recommended s o l u t i o n . . . t o the s e l e c t i v e s e t s of d a t a t h a t support the recommendation and the u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s t h a t . . . a l l o w one t o deduce the recommendations as a consequence o f t h e d a t a " (Dunn, 1981, p.122). The " s e l e c t i v e s e t s of d a t a " used i n the a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s w i l l be taken from the r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s . U n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s w i l l be s i m u l a t e d f o r agency s t a k e h o l d e r s based on t h e i r a c t u a l p r e f e r e n c e s of one p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e over another. The r e a d e r must r e c o g n i z e t h a t w h i l e the s i m u l a t i o n of a s s u m p t i o n s i s s u b j e c t i v e , l o g i c a l a s s i g n m e n t s can be made based on e x p l i c i t p r e m i s e s of the s t a k e h o l d e r s . 42 The a s s u m p t i o n s and p o s i t i o n s of p o l i c y s t a k e h o l d e r s w i l l s u g g e s t t h e b a s i c e s s e n c e o f t h e p o l i c y i s s u e o r p r o b l e m we a r e s t r u c t u r i n g . These as s u m p t i o n s may s u p port or r e f u t e the c o n j e c t u r e t h a t a l a c k of agency c o n t r o l over c r i t i c a l p o l i c y p h a s e s i s t h e b a s i c i s s u e , and i t may s u g g e s t o t h e r e l e m e n t s o f the p o l i c y problem t h a t were p r e v i o u s l y not e v i d e n t . 3.4 SUMMARY S e c t i o n 3.1 d e s c r i b e s the s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h i s a n a l y s i s , the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s t h a t accompany the problem s t a t e m e n t , and the o b j e c t i v e s f o r the a n a l y s i s . Of major s i g n i f i c a n c e to t h i s t h e s i s i s the development of a framework of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t h a t can be a p p l i e d to the s e l e c t e d case study, or to s i m i l a r cases i n the f u t u r e . T h i s t h e s i s t a k e s a n o r m a t i v e approach to the e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , a t t e m p t i n g t o d e t e r m i n e the optimum p o l i c y f o r the r e c o v e r y of revenues f o r the PUC program. The s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s developed f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s suggest the need to d e f i n e the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y . The q u e s t i o n s a l s o suggest the need t o d e velop s c e n a r i o s of program i m p l e m e n t a t i o n under each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and then an assessment of the i m p a c t s of t hese o p e r a t i o n s . The problem s t a t e m e n t and s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s are t r a n s l a t e d i n t o f i v e o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h i s t h e s i s . Those o b j e c t i v e s , a l o n g w i t h the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s , form the 43 benchmark a g a i n s t which a l l methods of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s are r e v i e w e d f o r s e l e c t i o n . The scope of t h i s a n a l y s i s i s d e f i n e d to i n c l u d e the r e l a t i o n s h i p of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n t o the s u r r o u n d i n g p o l i c y environment. S i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , w h i c h are l o c a t e d w i t h i n the p o l i c y e n v i r o n m e n t , are e x t e r n a l t o the i n f l u e n c e of p o l i c y . In c o n t r a s t , p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s are i n t e r n a l t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ; a l o n g w i t h s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , they d e t e r m i n e the outcome of a p o l i c y . Of s p e c i a l c o n c e r n to t h i s a n a l y s i s a re the r e l a t i o n s h i p and i m p a c t s of s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s on the outcome of the agency p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y ( i . e . , program r e c e i p t s ) . M o d i f i e d v e r s i o n s of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s would be used to answer the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s of t h i s a n a l y s i s . These q u e s t i o n s concern the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s , p o s s i b l e c a u s a l f a c t o r s , and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y . From the a p p l i c a t i o n of the above mentioned problem s t r u c t u r i n g methods a thorough u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the p o l i c y i s s u e s f o r t h i s case would be g a i n e d . While the i n f o r m a t i o n developed w i t h these t e c h n i q u e s w i l l p r o v i d e a f o u n d a t i o n f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , i t cannot i d e n t i f y a p p r o p r i a t e c r i t e r i a o r methods to t h a t end. Such methods and c r i t e r i a w i l l be r e v i e w e d i n Chapter Four. 44 CHAPTER 4 REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT OF POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 4.1 INTRODUCTION T h i s c h a p t e r r e v i e w s the development of the p r o c e d u r e s chosen to a n a l y z e the i s s u e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t o t h i s case study. These p r o c e d u r e s were chosen because of t h e i r a b i l i t y t o frame the f i n d i n g s of the p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d problem s t r u c t u r i n g methods ( i . e . , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s ) , and p r o v i d e answers to the f i n a l t h r e e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . The f i r s t s e c t i o n of t h i s c h a p t e r p r o v i d e s a d i s c u s s i o n o f the o b j e c t i v e s f o r the a n a l y s i s , the f u n c t i o n of p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s , and the s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of a framework f o r s c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g and impact a n a l y s i s . The second and t h i r d s e c t i o n s d i s c u s s the methods chosen f o r use i n t h i s case study: Dunn's model of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate, and Cook and S c i o l i ' s model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . These s e c t i o n s d e t a i l the a p p l i c a t i o n of these methods t o t h i s case s t u d y , and p r o v i d e examples of how the i n f o r m a t i o n from the case w i l l be f o r m a t t e d . 45 4.2 DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK In Chapter Three i t was proposed t h a t two methods of problem s t r u c t u r i n g be a p p l i e d t o the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . The r e s u l t s of these methods, I suggested, would be the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s , and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y . As of y e t unaddressed are the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the f o r e c a s t s of d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s . These s c e n a r i o s concern program o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t a method of revenue r e c o v e r y , and o p e r a t i o n s under the c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . The m e t h o d o l o g i c a l r e q u i r e m e n t s of these s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s are u n d e r l i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t of a n a l y s i s obj e c t i v e s : To develop s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s under the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s ; To a s s e s s the i m p a c t s of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s on program o p e r a t i o n s and development. S c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g i s one of a number of t e c h n i q u e s known as s u b j e c t i v e f o r e c a s t i n g . Other t e c h n i q u e s i n c l u d e the D e l p h i Method, b r a i n s t o r m i n g , and c r o s s - i m p a c t m a t r i c e s (Hogswood 1984, p.135). S c e n a r i o s a re " h y p o t h e t i c a l sequences of e v e n t s c o n s t r u c t e d f o r the purpose of f o c u s i n g a t t e n t i o n on c a u s a l p r o c e s s e s and d e c i s i o n p o i n t s " (Hogswood 1984, p.138). S c e n a r i o s can be used to answer two q u e s t i o n s : (1) How might a s i t u a t i o n come about, s t e p by s t e p ? 46 (2) What a l t e r n a t i v e s e x i s t , f o r each [ p o l i c y ] a c t o r , f o r p r e v e n t i n g , a v e r t i n g , o r f a c i l i t a t i n g the [ p o l i c y ] p r o c e s s ? (Hogswood from E n c e l , e t a l . 1975, p.86). Hogswood i d e n t i f i e s two l i m i t a t i o n s w i t h s c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g : t h a t an a s s u m p t i o n might be made f o r a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t does not e x i s t , and t h a t t h e r e i s no way o f e n s u r i n g t h a t a l l major p o s s i b i l i t i e s are i d e n t i f i e d (1984, p.139). In t h i s case s t u d y , s c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g w i l l a l l o w f o r the d e s c r i p t i o n of program o p e r a t i o n s under each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . From the s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s , f o r e c a s t s of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s and e f f i c i e n c y of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e w i l l then be made u s i n g p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s . While p o l i c y a n a l y s i s i s concerned w i t h "what causes a p o l i c y " , p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s i s concerned w i t h "what a p o l i c y causes" (Cook and S c i o l i , 1975, p.95-96). In o t h e r words, t h i s p r o c e s s i s concerned w i t h measuring the i m p a c t s of a g i v e n p o l i c y on o v e r a l l program o b j e c t i v e s . S i n c e t h i s p r o c e s s i s r e l a t i v e l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d , a model of p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s was q u i c k l y chosen from the l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w . In t h i s and the p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r , we have r e v i e w e d methods of c l a s s i f y i n g p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and problems, d e f i n i n g p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s , and the f o r e c a s t i n g of p o l i c y i m p a c t s . What i s l a c k i n g i s a framework t h a t p r o v i d e a means f o r a d d r e s s i n g a l l the c r i t i c a l i s s u e s and c r i t i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s of t h i s case. T h i s framework s h o u l d p r o v i d e a means 47 f o r a r t i c u l a t i n g p r e v i o u s l y i m p l i c i t r e a s o n i n g , w h i l e a l l o w i n g f o r checks on the c o n s i s t e n c y and l o g i c of t h i s r e a s o n i n g . The framework s h o u l d a l l o w f o r the development of c r i t i q u e s or r e b u t t a l s t o q u e s t i o n a b l e p r e m i s e s or a s s u m p t i o n s , perhaps i n t r o d u c i n g the d i v e r g e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s of p o l i c y a c t o r s . F i n a l l y , the framework s h o u l d compliment the n o r m a t i v e approach taken i n t h i s case study. D u r i n g the development of the case s t u d y , the a u t h o r a t t e m p t e d to adapt f o u r p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s to the above s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . These t e c h n i q u e s i n c l u d e d c a u s a l m o d e l l i n g , t h e o r y mapping, f e a s i b i l i t y assessment, and o b j e c t i v e s mapping. These t e c h n i q u e s were u l t i m a t e l y r e j e c t e d because they d i d not f u l f i l l the above r e q u i r e m e n t s , o r p r o v i d e a l o g i c a l and comprehensive means of a d d r e s s i n g the r e m a i n i n g s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . The t e c h n i q u e f i n a l l y chosen to f u l f i l l the framework o b j e c t i v e s i s the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. 4.3 STRUCTURED POLICY DEBATE Dunn suggests t h a t by u s i n g t e c h n i q u e s of s t r u c t u r i n g a p o l i c y debate, an a n a l y s t can "employ problem s o l v i n g methods t h a t are open to c h a l l e n g e s , a r e s e l f c r i t i c a l , and are d i r e c t e d toward the r e s o l u t i o n of a problem, r a t h e r than the j u s t i f i c a t i o n of f a v o r e d p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s " (1981, p.43). Dunn's model of a p o l i c y debate i s s t r u c t u r e d w i t h seven e l e m e n t s . These e l e m e n t s are a r r a n g e d s e q u e n t i a l l y to l e a d the p o l i c y a n a l y s t from a p i e c e of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n " 48 t h r o u g h a number of s u b - i s s u e s c o m p r i s e d of p o l i c y w a r r a n t s ( p r e m i s e s ) and r e b u t t a l s to p o l i c y c l a i m s . The p o l i c y c l a i m forms the c o n c l u s i o n of the argument, and can then be t e s t e d w i t h a p p r o p r i a t e methods of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s . I o f f e r t h r e e r e a s o n s f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s t e c h n i q u e to the case study. F i r s t , a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate would f a c i l i t a t e i n c o r p o r a t i o n of the b a s i c p o l i c y i s s u e ( s ) , p r o v i d i n g a framework f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of s u b s t a n t i v e arguments f o r and a g a i n s t each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . In t h i s framework, a s s u m p t i o n s or p r e m i s e s c o u l d be d e f i n e d about the e f f e c t of a c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e on the outcome of a p o l i c y ( i . e . , the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y , f o r i n s t a n c e ) , and then t e s t e d u s i n g the methods of p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s . Second, the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s a l l o w f o r the c o n t i n u e d development of the d i v e r g e n t p o s i t i o n s o f the p o l i c y p l a y e r s . B u i l d i n g on the a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s , i t p r o v i d e s f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y maker p r e m i s e s and r e b u t t a l s i n r e g a r d t o a s p e c i f i c p o l i c y approach. T h i r d , s t r u c t u r i n g a p o l i c y debate f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of problem s o l v i n g s t r a t e g i e s i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the n o r m a t i v e approach of t h i s t h e s i s . I t a l l o w s f o r the d i s c u s s i o n and a n a l y s i s of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s from a problem s o l v i n g p e r s p e c t i v e , r a t h e r than from the o n e - s i d e d p e r s p e c t i v e of p o l i c y j u s t i f i c a t i o n . 49 4.3.1 Debate Elements T h i s s e c t i o n i n i t i a l l y d e t a i l s the s u b s t a n t i v e e l e m e n t s of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate, and then c l o s e s w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of the g r a p h i c p r e s e n t a t i o n . U n l e s s o t h e r w i s e c i t e d , the quotes seen i n t h i s s e c t i o n are taken from Dunn (1981, p.41). A g r a p h i c p r e s e n t a t i o n of the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate i s found i n s e c t i o n 6.1. I t may help the r e a d e r t o r e f e r t o t h i s f i g u r e w h i l e the elements of the p o l i c y debate are d i s c u s s e d below. The s t a r t i n g p o i n t of the p o l i c y debate i s the d e f i n i t i o n of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n " : a c i r c u m s t a n t i a l p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t has help e d p r e c i p i t a t e a p o l i c y debate i s s u e . P o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n i s "produced by m u l t i p l e methods...[and] i n c l u d e s p o l i c y problems, a l t e r n a t i v e s , a c t i o n s , outcomes, and p o l i c y performance." For t h i s case study the p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l concern the amount of agency c o n t r o l over phases of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l be taken from the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i n Chapter F i v e . The next element i s the p o l i c y c l a i m . A p o l i c y c l a i m i s the " c o n c l u s i o n of a p o l i c y argument; the l o g i c a l consequence of p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n . " In t h i s case, the p o l i c y c l a i m w i l l t ake the form of an answer to the problem s t a t e m e n t of t h i s t h e s i s . T h i s answer can be o n l y as c o n c l u s i v e as the s u p p o r t i n g w a r r a n t s are l o g i c a l , v a l i d and r e l i a b l e . 5 0 The w a r r a n t i n a p o l i c y d e b a t e i s t h e " a s s u m p t i o n i n a p o l i c y argument wh i c h p e r m i t s the a n a l y s t t o move from p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o a p o l i c y c l a i m . " In t h i s c a s e , the war r a n t a l l o w s f o r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of s c e n a r i o s and p r e m i s e s t h a t s u p p o r t the c l a i m f o r a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . For i n s t a n c e , the second w a r r a n t w i l l read: [ S i n c e ] The l a c k of a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y impact the PUC program. [Note: The word s i n c e i s p a r t of the suggested f o r m a t . Read t o g e t h e r w i t h the b a c k i n g , r e b u t t a l s , and q u a l i f i e r s , i t would form a sentence t h a t c o n c l u d e s w i t h the p o l i c y c l a i m . ] At f i r s t g l a n c e such a s t a t e m e n t may seem b i a s e d ; i t must be remembered t h a t t h i s s h o u l d be t a k e n as b o t h a s c e n a r i o and a p r e m i s e , t h a t an e q u a l l y b i a s e d y e t c o n t r a s t i n g r e b u t t a l w i l l be made to t h i s s t a t e m e n t , and most i m p o r t a n t , t a k i n g a p o s i t i o n i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o t e s t i n g w i t h methods of p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s . S u p p o r t i n g e v e r y w a r r a n t and r e b u t t a l i s a b a c k i n g . The ba c k i n g " c o n s i s t s of a d d i t i o n a l a s sumptions or arguments t h a t may be used t o s u p p o r t w a r r a n t s w h i c h are not a c c e p t e d on f r e e v a l u e . The b a c k i n g f o r w a r r a n t s a l l o w s the a n a l y s t to go one s t e p f u r t h e r backward and s t a t e u n d e r l y i n g assumptions." An example of a b a c k i n g s t a t e m e n t f o r the p r e v i o u s l y d e f i n e d w a r r a n t r e a d s : [Because] C r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l not be a c h i e v e d . 51 The program o b j e c t i v e s used f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s are taken from p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s f o r the PUC program. They a r e : (1) To i n c r e a s e and enhance r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n t i e s ; (2) to p r o v i d e f o r p u b l i c s a f e t y ; (3) t o p r o v i d e s u p p o r t t o the s t a t e ' s t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y ; (4) t o m a i n t a i n an a p p r o p r i a t e s t a n d a r d of s e r v i c e u s i n g c o s t - e f f e c t i v e management methods; (5) t o r e t u r n c a b i n r e n t a l revenue to the program f o r the maintenance of the c a b i n s ; A c o n c e p t u a l d i s c u s s i o n of program o b j e c t i v e s i s seen i n s e c t i o n 4.4.1. The r a t i o n a l e f o r the c h o i c e of the above o b j e c t i v e s i s d i s c u s s e d i n s e c t i o n 6.2.1. The next p o l i c y debate element i s the r e b u t t a l . "A r e b u t t a l i s a second c o n c l u s i o n , a s s u m p t i o n , or argument t h a t s t a t e s the c o n d i t i o n s under which an o r i g i n a l c l a i m i s u n a c c e p t a b l e , or under w h i c h i t may be a c c e p t e d o n l y w i t h q u a l i f i c a t i o n s . Taken t o g e t h e r , p o l i c y c l a i m s and r e b u t t a l s form the substance of p o l i c y issues...and s e r v e as a s y s t e m a t i c means f o r c r i t i c i z i n g one's own c l a i m s , a s s u m p t i o n s , and arguments." For i n s t a n c e , a r e b u t t a l t o the w a r r a n t s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y might read: L a c k i n g a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism, the PUC program w i l l not be s i g n i f i c a n t l y impacted." The b a c k i n g f o r t h i s would read: [Because] S i g n i f i c a n t program o b j e c t i v e s would be a c h i e v e d . " 52 The next p o l i c y debate element i s the q u a l i f i e r . "A q u a l i f i e r e x p r e s s e s the degree to which the a n a l y s t i s c e r t a i n about a p o l i c y c l a i m . In p o l i c y a n a l y s i s , q u a l i f i e r s are o f t e n e x p r e s s e d i n the language of p r o b a b i l i t y . When the a n a l y s t i s c o m p l e t e l y c e r t a i n about a c l a i m , t h a t i s , when c o n c l u s i o n s a re w h o l l y d e t e r m i n i s t i c i n n a t u r e and c o n t a i n no e r r o r - no q u a l i f i e r i s necessary." A f t e r the d e f i n i t i o n of p o l i c y debate e l e m e n t s , a c h a r t s i m i l a r t o a PERT c h a r t o r a d e c i s i o n t r e e w i l l be drawn up (see F i g u r e 6.1, s e c t i o n 6.1, f o r the debate developed f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s ) . P o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n i s p l a c e d i n the upper l e f t hand c o r n e r , and the p o l i c y c l a i m i n the upper r i g h t hand c o r n e r . On the l o w e r h a l f of the c h a r t , p o l i c y w a r r a n t s , r e b u t t a l s and b a c k i n g s a re grouped by i s s u e . A s e r i e s of ar r o w s i s used t o guide the r e a d e r through the sequence of w a r r a n t s and r e b u t t a l s t o the c o n c l u s i o n of the debate. T h i s w i l l have t h e n met t h e need o f t h i s a n a l y s i s t o d e v e l o p a f r a m e w o r k f o r the d e f i n i t i o n of p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s . 4.4 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS ELEMENTS The model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s proposed f o r t h i s case study would measure the i m p a c t s of a g i v e n p o l i c y s c e n a r i o on o v e r a l l program o b j e c t i v e s . The model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s chosen f o r t h i s case study was developed by Cook and S c i o l i (1975, p.96 - 105). The major components of t h i s model are program a c t i v i t i e s , program o b j e c t i v e s , and performance measurement c r i t e r i a . P o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s t e s t s the e f f i c a c y 53 of program a c t i v i t i e s i n a c h i e v i n g program o b j e c t i v e s w i t h the a p p l i c a t i o n p erformance measurement c r i t e r i a . Because the program a c t i v i t i e s d e f i n e d f o r t h i s case are based on s c e n a r i o s , the d e f i n i t i o n of i m p a c t s i s n e c e s s a r i l y s u b j e c t i v e . 4.4.1 Program O b j e c t i v e s Program o b j e c t i v e s can be d i v i d e d down i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s : p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s and outcome o b j e c t i v e s . P r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s emphasize the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s p e c t s of a p o l i c y such as a d m i n i s t r a t i v e performance and c o s t - e f f i c i e n c y . The p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s t h a t are developed w i l l be based on i n f o r m a t i o n r e v i e w e d i n the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s . Outcome o b j e c t i v e s are e x t e r n a l to program o p e r a t i o n s and a c t i v i t i e s . They f o c u s on "...the i m p a c t s of the program [ o p e r a t i o n s ] on a s p e c i f i c s o c i o - p h y s i c a l t a r g e t w i t h i n the environment of the program" (Cook and S c i o l i , 1975, p.95). In the p o l i c y w a r r a n t s developed f o r the debate, the outcome o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be t r a n s l a t e d from the r e c r e a t i o n g o a l s d e s c r i b e d i n the PUC program p l a n . T h i s would i n c l u d e g o a l s such as i n c r e a s i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s , e x t e n d i n g the season of r e c r e a t i o n a l use, and p r o t e c t i n g n a t u r a l and c u l t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . P r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s and outcome o b j e c t i v e s are d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d . The a t t a i n m e n t of p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s s h o u l d be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the a t t a i n m e n t of outcome o b j e c t i v e s ; 54 c o n v e r s e l y the f a i l u r e t o a c h i e v e p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s w i l l r e s u l t i n the f a i l u r e of a c h i e v i n g program outcome o b j e c t i v e s . 4.4.2 Program A c t i v i t i e s Program a c t i v i t i e s a re those a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a program d e l i v e r y system. Program a c t i v i t i e s are the "output of p o l i c y " , or a c t i v i t y of government, as d e s c r i b e d by Dye (1972, p.291). In t h i s c a s e , s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue r e c o v e r y , and w i t h revenue r e c o v e r y through c o n c e s s i o n s , w i l l be developed. These s c e n a r i o s w i l l be based on the o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the program i d e n t i f i e d i n the case study o v e r v i e w i n Chapter Two, and the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i n Chapter Three. 4.4.3 Performance Measurement C r i t e r i a The f u n c t i o n of performance measurement c r i t e r i a i s t o i n d i c a t e whether or not program a c t i v i t i e s are a c h i e v i n g outcome o b j e c t i v e s . Examples of performance measurement c r i t e r i a might i n c l u d e the numbers of u s e r s of the c a b i n s , the number o f c o m p l a i n t s a b o u t t h e c o n d i t i o n o f a c a b i n , o r t h e number of s t a f f hours spent i n the maintenance of a c a b i n . For such c r i t e r i a t o be u s e f u l , they must meet t e s t s of v a l i d i t y , r e l i a b i l i t y , o b j e c t i v i t y , and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n . I f n e c e s s a r y , th e s e t e s t s w i l l be i n t r o d u c e d as the c r i t e r i o n i s o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d a l o n g w i t h the p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . 55 4.5 SUMMARY In Chapter Three, we r e v i e w e d methods of c h a r a c t e r i z i n g the s t r e n g t h s , weaknesses and v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , f o r l a t e r a p p l i c a t i o n t o the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . Chapter Four has p r o v i d e d a r e v i e w of the t e c h n i q u e s t h a t w i l l be used to address the f i n a l t h r e e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s o f t h i s t h e s i s . The t e c h n i q u e of s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate was chosen as the framework f o r the development of s c e n a r i o s f o r the f o r e c a s t i n g of p o l i c y i m p a c t s . T h i s t e c h n i q u e c o n t a i n s seven elements t h a t are a r r a n g e d t o l e a d the r e a d e r from a n e u t r a l p i e c e of " p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n " , through a number of p o l i c y sub-arguments and r e b u t t a l s , to a c o n c l u s i o n i n the form of a recommendation f o r an optimum p o l i c y . Each of the p o l i c y sub-arguments can be c o n s i d e r e d as a p r e m i s e f o r or a g a i n s t a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y . In o r d e r to t e s t these p r e m i s e s , Cook and S c i o l i ' s model of p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s w i l l be a p p l i e d to s c e n a r i o s based on the p r e m i s e s . The e l e m e n t s c o m p r i s i n g the model of p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s are program o b j e c t i v e s , program a c t i v i t i e s , and performance measurement c r i t e r i a . Performance measurement c r i t e r i a a r e used t o f o r e c a s t how w e l l a g i v e n a s p e c t o f a program a c t i v i t y might a c h i e v e program o b j e c t i v e s . From th e s e f o r e c a s t s , i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o d e f i n e t h e i m p a c t s o f a g i v e n p o l i c y on program o b j e c t i v e s . 56 From t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e i m p a c t a n a l y s i s , i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t each of the p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s i n t r o d u c e d i n the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. F i n a l l y , i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e to address the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of the d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s , and come t o a c o n c l u s i o n about the problem s t a t e m e n t . 57 CHAPTER 5 ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RECOVERY POLICY ISSUES 5.1 INTRODUCTION Chapter F i v e r e p r e s e n t s the r e t u r n of t h i s case s t u d y from the m e t h o d o l o g i c a l d i s c u s s i o n i n the p r e v i o u s two c h a p t e r s t o the p o l i c y i s s u e a t hand. The purpose of t h i s c h a p t e r i s to d e s c r i b e p o l i c y i s s u e s by a d d r e s s i n g the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s of t h i s case. These q u e s t i o n s concern the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s , and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r each p o l i c y . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s used i n the f i r s t two major s e c t i o n s (5.3 and 5.4) to p r o v i d e an i n - d e p t h r e v i e w of the w o r k i n g s of both p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of both p o l i c i e s w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d , and the amount of agency i n v o l v e m e n t i n the c a u s a l f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d . From t h i s i t i s hoped to suggest a p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between agency i n v o l v e m e n t and p o l i c y v u l n e r a b i l i t y . The r e s u l t s o f the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s w i l l form the f o u n d a t i o n f o r an a n a l y s i s of the ass u m p t i o n s and p r e m i s e s of agency p o l i c y makers r e g a r d i n g revenue r e c o v e r y . The a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s w i l l be u s e d as a c h e c k on t h e r e s u l t s o f 58 the p r e v i o u s methods, and to a r t i c u l a t e the d i s c u s s i o n o f p o l i c y i s s u e s . The r e s u l t s o f t h e s e a n a l y s e s w i l l n o t be an a n s w e r t o what the most e f f e c t i v e revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i s . I n s t e a d they w i l l suggest what c o n s t r a i n t s must be overcome t o e f f e c t revenue r e c o v e r y . In e f f e c t , t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l d e f i n e the i s s u e s n e c e s s a r y t o make a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r . 5.2 APPLYING CLASSIFICATION ANALYSIS TO CASE STUDY In Chapter Three we r e v i e w e d l i t e r a t u r e on t e c h n i q u e s o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s f o r problem s t r u c t u r i n g . In the f i r s t h a l f o f t h i s c h a p t e r we w i l l a p p l y t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s t o t h e c a s e s t u d y . The f i r s t o b j e c t i v e of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s as i t a p p l i e s t o t h i s c a s e i s t o i d e n t i f y t h e e l e m e n t s o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and program o p e r a t i o n which are s i g n i f i c a n t t o the achievement of o v e r a l l program o b j e c t i v e s . The elements i n c l u d e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s a re i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e d u r e s , and p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n . The second o b j e c t i v e i s to c l a s s i f y t hese e l e m e n t s a c c o r d i n g to the amount of i n f l u e n c e the agency has over s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s and p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t i n g the outcome the outcome of a p o l i c y . T h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w i l l i n c l u d e a measurement of the amount of i n f l u e n c e o r c o n t r o l the agency has i n d e t e r m i n i n g the outcome of the p o l i c y . 59 T h i s l e a d s t o the t h i r d o b j e c t i v e , which i s the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the phases of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a t whi c h t h e r e i s the g r e a t e s t u n c e r t a i n t y of outcome. In Chapter Three i t was proposed t h a t u n c e r t a i n t y of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n may be one of the b a s i c p o l i c y i s s u e s i n v o l v e d i n t h i s case. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s w i l l check t h i s s u p p o s i t i o n , and p r o v i d e f o r the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the c a u s a l f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y . The f o l l o w i n g two s e c t i o n s (5.2 and 5.3) r e v i e w the phases of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o r each a l t e r n a t i v e ; s e c t i o n 5.4 i d e n t i f i e s the s i g n i f i c a n c e of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phases, u n c e r t a i n outcomes, and makes a comparison of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . 5.3 PROGRAM RECEIPTS 5.3.1 Revenue Recovery P r o c e d u r e s The language from the proposed f e e b i l l i l l u s t r a t e s how revenue would be r e c o v e r e d u s i n g a system of program r e c e i p t s . S e c t i o n 1(c) of the f e e b i l l r e a d s : Fees c o l l e c t e d under t h i s s u b s e c t i o n s h a l l be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund. The c o m m i s s i o n e r of a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a l l s e p a r a t e l y account f o r f e e s c o l l e c t e d and d e p o s i t e d by the c o m m i s s i o n e r under t h i s s u b s e c t i o n . The annual e s t i m a t e d b a l a n c e i n the account may be a p p r o p r i a t e d by the L e g i s l a t u r e t o the Department of N a t u r a l Resources t o c a r r y out the purposes of t h i s s e c t i o n (AK DPOR, 1986e). The t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s of i n s t i t u t i n g program r e c e i p t s would be the development of an a c c o u n t i n g procedure between the 60 Department of A d m i n s t r a t i o n and the D i v i s i o n of P a r k s . F o l l o w i n g the quote from S e c t i o n 1(c) of the fee b i l l , program revenues would be s e p a r a t e l y accounted f o r , d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund, and t h a t amount would be r e q u e s t e d and a p p r o p r i a t e d to the agency f o r program o p e r a t i o n s i n the next f i s c a l year. Once the funds are a p p r o p r i a t e d to the agency they are d i s b u r s e d f o r program o p e r a t i o n s 5.3.2 I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P r o c e s s On August 20, 1986, the D i r e c t o r of the D i v i s i o n of Pa r k s f o r w a r d e d a memo t o h i s s u p e r i o r ( t h e Commissioner of the Department of N a t u r a l Resources) p r o p o s i n g t h a t the Governor i n t r o d u c e an omnibus b i l l to the L e g i s l a t u r e to charge u s e r f e e s and e s t a b l i s h program r e c e i p t s f o r s e l e c t e d programs. T h i s p i e c e of l e g i s l a t i o n w i l l be r e f e r r e d to here as the "fee b i l l . " The proposed l e g i s l a t i o n i n c l u d e d a p r o v i s i o n t h a t would a l l o w the D i v i s i o n t o r e c e i v e and spend revenues f o r the PUC program. Without such s t a t u t o r y a u t h o r i t y , a l l program revenues would go i n t o the G e n e r a l Fund of the S t a t e , and e x p e n d i t u r e s would be l i m i t e d t o annual a p p r o p r i a t i o n s from the G e n e r a l Fund. P r o p o s i n g t h i s s t a t u t o r y change i s the f i r s t s t e p i n the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t i n g a p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y — the " i n i t i a t i o n of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . " A l t h o u g h the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y has been adopted by the agency, i t cannot be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d u n t i l i t passes t h r o u g h f o u r s t a g e s i n the l e g i s l a t i v e p r o c e s s , i n c l u d i n g : (1) 61 i n c l u s i o n i n the Governor's l e g i s l a t i v e r e q u e s t s ; (2) i n t r o d u c t i o n i n the l e g i s l a t u r e ; (3) passage by the l e g i s l a t u r e ; (4) and a p p r o v a l ( r a t h e r than veto) by the G overnor. For t h i s c a s e , the f o u r s t e p p r o c e s s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d as the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Once these f o u r s t e p s are a c c o m p l i s h e d , the p o l i c y can be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d , and revenue r e c o v e r y can begin. The f i r s t s t e p of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s the a p p r o v a l of the l e g i s l a t i v e p r o p o s a l by the Commissioner of the Department o f N a t u r a l Resources (DNR), a member of the Governor's c a b i n e t who s e r v e s as the i n t e r m e d i a r y between c i v i l s e r v i c e a g e n c i e s and the Governor's a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . As E x e c u t i v e O f f i c e r of the DNR, the Commissioner i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of o v e r a l l agency p o l i c y , i n c l u d i n g the p o l i c y of the D i v i s i o n of P a r k s . T h e r e f o r e , the proposed fee b i l l r e q u i r e s the Commissioner's s u p p o r t b e f o r e i t would be r e v i e w e d by the A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . At t h i s w r i t i n g the Commissioner had approved the r e q u e s t f o r l e g i s l a t i o n . A f t e r t h i s a p p r o v a l , the p r o p o s a l went to the Governor's O f f i c e f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e v i e w . I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t the e x i s t i n g a d m i n i s t r a t i o n was r e p l a c e d December 1, 1986 by the newly e l e c t e d Governor and h i s chosen a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . As a r e s u l t , the d e c i s i o n to i n t r o d u c e the DPOR fee b i l l to the l e g i s l a t u r e i s pending r e v i e w and a p p r o v a l of the new a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . 62 Upon a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a p p r o v a l , the fee b i l l would be i n t r o d u c e d to the L e g i s l a t u r e t h rough the R u l e s Committee of e i t h e r the House of R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s or the Senate. Once i n t r o d u c e d , the l i f e of the f e e b i l l c o u l d extend through two c o n s e c u t i v e s e s s i o n s of the L e g i s l a t u r e . T h i s means t h a t i f the b i l l i s not passed, but not t a b l e d i n the 1987 L e g i s l a t i v e S e s s i o n , i t can be c o n s i d e r e d i n the 1988 L e g i s l a t i v e S e s s i o n . I f the f e e b i l l i s passed by the L e g i s l a t u r e , the f o u r t h and f i n a l s t e p of a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s the a p p r o v a l (or v eto) of the l e g i s l a t i o n by the Governor. I f approved, the b i l l i s c o d i f i e d i n t o law as an A l a s k a S t a t u t e , and program r e c e i p t p r o c e d u r e s f o r the r e c o v e r y of revenues from the PUC program can be i n s t i t u t e d . 5.3.3 Program O p e r a t i o n s Program o p e r a t i o n s can be c h a r a c t e r i z e d as the outcome of a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y t h a t has been adopted by the D i v i s i o n , and a u t h o r i z e d by A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and the L e g i s l a t u r e . The d e s c r i p t i o n of t h i s p o l i c y outcome i s i m p o r t a n t to t h i s a n a l y s i s because of the p o l i c y e f f e c t s on the " c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and development of the PUC program" (quote from problem s t a t e m e n t ) . In Chapter 6 we w i l l a s s e s s the i m p a c t s of the p o l i c y outcome f o r program r e c e i p t s ; t h e r e f o r e i t i s i m p o r t a n t to d e s c r i b e program maintenance o b j e c t i v e s and a c t i v i t i e s to s e r v e as a b a s i s f o r t h i s assessment. 63 The program o p e r a t i o n g o a l f o r the PUC program i s : M a i n t a i n a s a f e and a p p r o p r i a t e s t a n d a r d of s e r v i c e u s i n g c o s t - e f f e c t i v e management methods." (AK DPOR, 1986d, p.2). To t h i s end the agency has d e f i n e d two maintenance o b j e c t i v e s f o r the program: (1) t o g i v e each c a b i n the o v e r a l l appearance of being c l e a n and kept s a n i t a r y , f r e e from l i t t e r , neat i n appearance, and w e l l kept; (2) t o i d e n t i f y and remedy any p o t e n t i a l s a f e t y hazards" (AK DPOR, 1986c, p . 6 ) . Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s d e s i g n e d t o a c h i e v e t h e s e o b j e c t i v e i n c l u d e s day-to-day maintenance ( i . e . , r e g u l a r c l e a n i n g of c a b i n s ) , and s p e c i a l maintenance ( i . e . , n o n - r e g u l a r r e p a i r of c a b i n f i x t u r e s ) . As seen i n the PUC p l a n (AK DNR 1985, p.57) the program manager has f o u r p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s of p e r s o n n e l t o undertake maintenance a c t i v i t i e s : (1) A l a s k a C o n s e r v a t i o n Corps - youths between the ages of 18 and 25 — are s e a s o n a l l y employed f o r maintenance of park f a c i l i t i e s ; (2) " b a c k c o u n t r y " c o n t r a c t o r s - a i r and water t a x i o p e r a t o r s , g u i d e s , or o t h e r b u s i n e s s e s t h a t n o r m a l l y o p e r a t e i n p r o x i m i t y t o the c a b i n s , these b u s i n e s s e s c o u l d be c o n t r a c t e d t o m a i n t a i n the c a b i n s ; (3) agency p e r s o n n e l - Park T e c h n i c i a n s and Park Ranger a s s i g n e d t o maintenance d u t i e s ; (4) v o l u n t e e r l a b o r - would a l s o r e q u i r e s t a f f c o o r d i n a t i o n and s u p e r v i s i o n . 64 Cabins would be m a i n t a i n e d t o the s t a n d a r d s d e f i n e d i n the PUC program p o l i c y w i t h p e r s o n n e l being r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the 26 a c t i v i t i e s d e f i n e d i n the Standard Maintenance C h e c k l i s t f o r t h e c a b i n s (AK DPOR, 1985, p.90). Monies would be a l l o c a t e d from the program r e c e i p t s account f o r the f u n d i n g of p e r s o n n e l and the purchase of c l e a n i n g s u p p l i e s and r e p a i r f i x t u r e s . R e c e i p t s a c c r u e d above and beyond maintenance c o s t s might be a p p l i e d to the c o n s t r u c t i o n of new c a b i n s . 5.3.4 I d e n t i f y i n g U n c e r t a i n t y The p r o p o s a l f o r the f e e b i l l by the DPOR i s s i g n i f i c a n t t o t h i s c a s e s t u d y b e c a u s e i t s i g n a l s t h e c h o i c e o f a p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s over a p o l i c y of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the program. The a d o p t i o n of the fee b i l l i s based on v a r i a b l e s c o n t r o l l e d by the agency; t h i s c h o i c e s e t s the stage f o r the p o l i c y i s s u e on which t h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s . There are many so u r c e s of u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h i n the f o u r major s t a g e s between p r o p o s i n g a b i l l and having i t f i n a l l y e n a c t e d and i n e f f e c t . Among the s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s , which a l o n e or i n c o m b i n a t i o n c o u l d p r e v e n t the passage of the b i l l , a r e : (1) the new governor may not sup p o r t the p r o p o s a l and t h e r e f o r e r e f u s e s t o i n t r o d u c e i t to the l e g i s l a t u r e ; (2) the n o r m a l l y u n p r e d i c t a b l e b e h a v i o r of the A l a s k a L e g i s l a t u r e ; (3) the governor may v e t o the b i l l a f t e r i t has passed from the l e g i s l a t u r e . 65 Agency i n f l u e n c e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d e c r e a s e s i n each of these s t e p s . In the f i r s t s t e p , the d i r e c t o r of the agency can meet d i r e c t l y w i t h the Commissioner. At t h i s p o i n t the agency has the g r e a t e s t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i t s ' l o b b y i n g e f f o r t s . Once the p r o p o s a l i s passed to the Governor's a d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r r e v i e w , t h e d i r e c t o r may l o b b y f o r t h e b i l l o n l y i f a s k e d t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , a f t e r the b i l l i s i n t r o d u c e d t o the l e g i s l a t u r e , the agency may not lob b y f o r the passage of the l e g i s l a t i o n . I n s t e a d , the agency can o n l y p r o v i d e b r i e f i n g i n f o r m a t i o n when r e q u e s t e d t o do so. Because the agency can e x e r t so l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e over the v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , t h e s e v a r i a b l e s w i l l be c l a s s i f i e d as " s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . " The c o m b i n a t i o n of a l a c k of agency i n f l u e n c e and u n c e r t a i n t y of p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n s u g g e s t s t h a t t h i s phase be a major p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r program r e c e i p t s . T h i s s u p p o s i t i o n w i l l be addressed i n l a t e r s e c t i o n s of t h i s c h a p t e r . Both s t a g e s of program o p e r a t i o n ( i . e . , revenue r e c o v e r y and program maintenance) are s i g n i f i c a n t to the c o n t i n u a n c e o f the PUC program. With the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of l e g i s l a t i v e precedence, i t i s assumed t h a t t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t program r e c e i p t s w i l l be r e c o v e r e d e v e r y year. For program maintenance o p e r a t i o n s , g i v e n the p r o f e s s i o n a l c r e d e n t i a l s and e x p e r i e n c e of the p e r s o n n e l r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s phase, i t i s assumed t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y 66 t h a t t h i s phase w i l l be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented. T h e r e f o r e , the outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o r revenue r e c o v e r y and program maintenance phases i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a good degree of c e r t a i n t y . In summary, the outcome of the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase i s the most u n c e r t a i n of a l l program r e c e i p t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phases. The outcome of t h i s phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s d e t e r m i n e d l a r g e l y , i f not e x c l u s i v e l y , by v a r i a b l e f a c t o r s o v e r w h i c h the agency has l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e . T h i s s u g gests a r e l a t i o n s h i p between the amount of agency i n f l u e n c e over p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n v a r i a b l e s , and the c e r t a i n t y of p o l i c y outcome. In the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s o f c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s , t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l be examined f u r t h e r . 5.4 CONCESSIONS POLICY In t h i s s e c t i o n , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s a p p l i e d to a d e s c r i p t i o n of PUC program a c t i v i t i e s under c o n c e s s i o n a i r e management. T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l i d e n t i f y the e lements of c o n c e s s i o n a i r e management f o r which the achievement of program o b j e c t i v e s i s u n c e r t a i n . I t w i l l a l s o i d e n t i f y c a u s a l v a r i a b l e s i n t e r n a l or e x t e r n a l to the agency i n the p r o c e s s of i m p l e m e n t i n g a c o n c e s s i o n s management s t r a t e g y . Under A l a s k a A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Code 11 AAC 14.200, the DPOR can e n t e r i n t o c o n c e s s i o n c o n t r a c t s w i t h c o m m e r c i a l or non-p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s , or i n d i v i d u a l s , to develop, o p e r a t e , and 67 m a i n t a i n p u b l i c use c a b i n s (AK DPOR, 1986d, p.7). For the PUC program, c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n i s an a l t e r n a t i v e method of r e c o v e r i n g revenues f o r program o p e r a t i o n and development. To a f f e c t c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n , the D i v i s i o n would have t o implement a w h o l l y d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y and procedure than t h a t i n v o l v e d w i t h program r e c e i p t s . Germane to t h i s case s t u d y i s the p r o p o s a l by D i v i s i o n f i e l d s t a f f to c o n t r a c t w i t h an e x i s t i n g n o n - p r o f i t , o r develop a n o n - p r o f i t c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n , t o take over program o p e r a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g revenue r e c o v e r y . Use f e e s would be c o l l e c t e d and a l l o c a t e d f o r the maintenance of the c a b i n s by the c o n c e s s i o n a i r e , e f f e c t i v e l y c i r c u m v e n t i n g the s t a t u t o r i a l r e q u i r e m e n t f o r the d e p o s i t of a l l revenues i n the g e n e r a l f u n d . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s d e s c r i b e the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p r o c e s s , revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e d u r e s , and program o p e r a t i o n s f o r a n o n - p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n , as e n v i s i o n e d by the agency. A l t h o u g h the agency has developed two c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s f o r the o p e r a t i o n of o t h e r S t a t e P a r k s ( i . e . , B i g D e l t a S t a t e H i s t o r i c a l Park, Independence Mine S t a t e H i s t o r i c a l P a r k ) , i t has yet t o implement c o n c e s s i o n management f o r a system of p u b l i c use c a b i n s . T h e r e f o r e , t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i s based on agency documents, e x t e n s i v e meetings w i t h agency s t a f f , and meetings w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f s i m i l a r n o n - p r o f i t a s s o c i a t i o n s . 68 5.4.1 I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P r o c e s s To a l a r g e e x t e n t , the p o l i c y and procedure f o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of agency f a c i l i t i e s i s a l r e a d y d e f i n e d , or to use Shanks t e r m i n o l o g y , f o r m u l a t e d . T h i s p o l i c y and p r o c e d u r e i s d e s i g n e d to be a p p l i e d i n a " b o i l e r p l a t e " f a s h i o n as the s i t u a t i o n demands. The f i r s t s t e p ( w h i c h has not been taken) i s t o adopt a p o l i c y to f a c i l i t a t e c o n t r a c t i n g f o r the n o n - p r o f i t o p e r a t i o n of the c a b i n s . In t h i s case the f i e l d s t a f f has proposed i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h i s p o l i c y c o n c u r r e n t t o the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . The d e c i s i o n t o go ahead w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n would be based on t h r e e f i n d i n g s ( C o n c e s s i o n C o n t r a c t i n g P r o c e s s Overview, AK DPOR, 1986a): (1) c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the f a c i l i t i e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h park u n i t o p e r a t i o n s ; (2) f o r - p r o f i t o p e r a t o r s are not i n t e r e s t e d i n p r o v i d i n g o p e r a t i o n and development s e r v i c e s f o r the program; (3) e x i s t i n g n o n - p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n s are not i n t e r e s t e d . I f i n f a c t an e x i s t i n g n o n - p r o f i t or f o r - p r o f i t o p e r a t o r was i n t e r e s t e d and had the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y t o o p e r a t e as a c o n c e s s i o n a i r e , then the D i v i s i o n would begin d r a f t i n g c o n t r a c t language, and f o r e g o the development of a s p e c i a l c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n . 69 The next s e t of s t e p s f o r the agency, a f t e r a d o p t i n g a p o l i c y to d e velop a c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n can be l a b e l l e d c o l l e c t i v e l y as the " process of i n c o r p o r a t i o n . " The t h r e e s t e p s c o m p r i s i n g t h i s p r o c e s s are: (1) the s e l e c t i o n of a Board of D i r e c t o r s ; (2) the d r a f t i n g of by-laws and a r t i c l e s of i n c o r p o r a t i o n ; (3) s u b m i s s i o n of a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n c o r p o r a t i o n and tax-exempt s t a t u s . In the development and s e l e c t i o n of a Board of D i r e c t o r s , the agency p l a y s the r o l e of f a c i l i t a t o r and c a t a l y s t to b r i n g t o g e t h e r p o t e n t i a l members. The i n t e n t i o n i s to d e v e l o p a s e l f -p e r p e t u a t i n g and i n d e p e n d e n t l y o p e r a t e d o r g a n i z a t i o n whose board members are d e d i c a t e d to t h i s o b j e c t i v e . Agency employees would not s i t on the Board. Throughout the p r o c e s s of i n c o r p o r a t i o n they would s e r v e o n l y i n an a d v i s o r y r o l e . The newly formed Board of D i r e c t o r s would then d r a f t the by-laws and a r t i c l e s of i n c o r p o r a t i o n f o r the o r g a n i z a t i o n . The purposes of the o r g a n i z a t i o n , as d e f i n e d i n the b y - l a w s , would be aimed s p e c i f i c a l l y a t p r o v i d i n g o p e r a t i o n and development s e r v i c e s f o r the PUC program. Upon c o m p l e t i o n of these documents, the Board would submit t o i n c o r p o r a t e under the r e q u i r e m e n t s of the S t a t e o f A l a s k a . The p r o c e s s i n g p e r i o d f o r documents of i n c o r p o r a t i o n i s about t h r e e months. A l s o , the Board would a p p l y f o r tax exempt s t a t u s w i t h the f e d e r a l I n t e r n a l Revenue S e r v i c e . The p r o c e s s i n g p e r i o d f o r t h i s can sometimes extend beyond a y e a r , a l t h o u g h t h i s s t a t u s i s not n e c e s s a r y t o begin o p e r a t i o n s . 70 As the newly formed o r g a n i z a t i o n i s i n c o r p o r a t i n g , o r i f an e x i s t i n g n o n - p r o f i t agreed to e n t e r i n t o c o n t r a c t n e g o t i a t i o n s , the agency would be d r a f t i n g s p e c i f i c language f o r the c o n c e s s i o n c o n t r a c t . One of the more i m p o r t a n t c l a u s e s would s t a t e t h a t a l l r e c e i p t s would be r e a l l o c a t e d i n t o f a c i l i t y maintenance and development. Other language would i n c l u d e revenue a c c o u n t i n g p r o c e d u r e s , maintenance s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , agency i n s p e c t i o n s , a ssumption of l i a b i l i t y , e t c . D i v i s i o n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s would a l s o meet w i t h the A t t o r n e y General's O f f i c e and the D i v i s i o n of R i s k Management to ensure the l e g a l i t y of c o n t r a c t s p e c i f i c s , and a p p l y t o the Department of A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r a b i d w a i v e r to the s t a n d a r d s t a t e c o n t r a c t i n g p r o c e d u r e . In most c a s e s , s t a t e c o n t r a c t s are l e t on a c o m p e t i t i v e b a s i s ; i n a n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e s i t u a t i o n such as t h i s case, an agency may a p p l y f o r a b i d w a i v e r . Because such a p p l i c a t i o n s are out of the o r d i n a r y , p r o c e s s i n g u s u a l l y t a k e s between one and f o u r months. Having c o m p l e t e d the p r o c e s s of i n c o r p o r a t i o n , c o n t r a c t d r a f t i n g and a p p r o v a l of the b i d w a i v e r , the n o n - p r o f i t and the agency would e n t e r i n t o c o n t r a c t n e g o t i a t i o n s . Because of the c o o p e r a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p shared by the agency and the non-p r o f i t , n e g o t i a t i o n s would p r o v i d e the o p p o r t u n i t y t o " f i n e tune" the c o n t r a c t . Upon the s i g n i n g of the c o n t r a c t , s p e c i f i e d revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e d u r e s and o p e r a t i o n s would be t r a n s f e r r e d to the n o n - p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n . 71 5.4.2 Revenue Recovery P r o c e s s U n l i k e program r e c e i p t s , i n a c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n the onus of revenue r e c o v e r y s h i f t s from the D i v i s i o n of P a r k s to the s e l e c t e d c o n t r a c t o r . No monies would be d e p o s i t e d i n the g e n e r a l fund; i n the case of n o n - p r o f i t o p e r a t i o n , by c o n t r a c t a l l monies r e c o v e r e d from use f e e s would be r e i n v e s t e d i n f a c i l i t y maintenance or development. Agency i n v o l v e m e n t i n the r e c o v e r y of revenues v a r i e s from s c e n a r i o to s c e n a r i o , but g e n e r a l l y i s not s i g n i f i c a n t . In one s c e n a r i o , the D i v i s i o n m i g h t c o l l e c t u s e r f e e s as p a r t o f an a g r e e m e n t t o o p e r a t e t h e c a b i n r e s e r v a t i o n . Use f e e s would be d e p o s i t e d i n the account of the n o n - p r o f i t , w i t h the o r g a n i z a t i o n l a t e r a l l o c a t i n g funds as i t saw f i t . In a n other s c e n a r i o , the n o n - p r o f i t might be t o t a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the c o l l e c t i o n and a l l o c a t i o n of user f ees. The n o n - p r o f i t would be r e q u i r e d to keep a c c u r a t e a c c o u n t s of a l l revenue a l l o c a t i o n s and subsequent spending. The books o f t h e n o n - p r o f i t w o u l d be open t o t h e D i v i s i o n f o r r e v i e w a t a p p r o p r i a t e i n t e r v a l s . 5.4.3 Program O p e r a t i o n s The n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n would be r e q u i r e d to m a i n t a i n the c a b i n s to the s t a n d a r d s d e f i n e d i n the c o n t r a c t ; those s t a n d a r d s are based on the maintenance o b j e c t i v e s d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i o n 4.3.4. Sources of p e r s o n n e l f o r r e g u l a r maintenance might range from v o l u n t e e r s to members of the o r g a n i z a t i o n to 72 c o n t r a c t o r s h i r e d f o r s p e c i a l r e p a i r work. Sa v i n g s i n p e r s o n n e l e x p e n d i t u r e s from v o l u n t e e r l a b o r might be r e a l l o c a t e d t o the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n o r development of o t h e r c a b i n s . Agency f u n c t i o n s a t t h i s s t a g e of o p e r a t i o n s i n c l u d e f i e l d i n s p e c t i o n s of f a c i l i t i e s t o ensure maintenance s t a n d a r d s are met, a i d or s u p e r v i s i o n i n r e h a b i l i t a t i o n and development p r o j e c t s , and an ongoing a d v i s o r y presence at the m a n a g e r i a l l e v e l of the n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n . 5 . 4 . 4 I d e n t i f y i n g U n c e r t a i n t y T h i s s e c t i o n c l a s s i f i e s the amount of i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y makers have over v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and i d e n t i f i e s the phases i n which t h e r e i s the g r e a t e s t u n c e r t a i n t y of p o l i c y outcome. The p r o c e s s of i n c o r p o r a t i n g a n o n - p r o f i t c o r p o r a t i o n i s made up o f a number o f v a r i a b l e s o v e r w h i c h t h e a g e n c y has a h i g h degree of c o n t r o l . A l t h o u g h agency i n v o l v e m e n t d e c r e a s e s somewhat through the p r o c e s s , the i n i t i a l framework developed by t h e agency w o u l d i n e f f e c t c o n t r o l f o r v a r i a b l e s s u c h as c h o i c e of Board members, d r a f t i n g of by-laws, s e l e c t i o n of m a n a g e r i a l s t a f f , e t c . In t h i s manner the agency g u i d e s the outcome of the p r o c e s s , b r i n g i n g a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t i n c o r p o r a t i o n w i l l be a c h i e v e d , g i v e n adequate a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s . The next s t e p — a g e n c y d r a f t i n g of the c o n c e s s i o n c o n t r a c t — i s v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t t o the p o l i c y outcome, and i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d 73 by a h i g h degree of agency i n v o l v e m e n t i n the p r o c e s s . While t h e c e r t a i n t y o f outcome i s h i g h , t h e r e i s a f a i r amount o f u n c e r t a i n t y as t o how l o n g i t w o u l d t a k e t o c o m p l e t e t h i s s t e p . S t a t u t o r i a l language, l i a b i l i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s , and b i d d i n g p r o c e d u r e s must be r e v i e w e d by a g e n c i e s o t h e r than the D i v i s i o n , a l l of w h i c h might c o n t r i b u t e to d e l a y s i n the c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s phase. The next s t e p — t h e revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e s s — i s s e t up by the agency i n c o o r d i n a t i o n w i t h the n o n - p r o f i t . Involvement o f the agency c o u l d range from h i g h t o low, a l t h o u g h the agency would have b u i l t a h i g h degree of a c c o u n t a b i l i t y i n t o the p r o c e d u r e . A source of u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d i n t h i s s t e p i s the amount of t i m e i t would take the n o n - p r o f i t t o assume o p e r a t i o n s i n an independent and competent manner. T h i s would be a f u n c t i o n of the management p r a c t i c e s of the n o n - p r o f i t . I t seems a r e a s o n a b l e c o n j e c t u r e t h a t an e s t a b l i s h e d n o n - p r o f i t w i t h a good management " t r a c k r e c o r d " would more r e a d i l y assume revenue r e c o v e r y o p e r a t i o n s than a newly formed o r g a n i z a t i o n . For both the revenue r e c o v e r y p r o c e s s and program o p e r a t i o n s , a number of s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s combine t o produce a medium degree of u n c e r t a i n t y as to when p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be a c h i e v e d . In the program o p e r a t i o n s s t e p , the agency a g a i n has a h i g h degree of a c c o u n t a b i l i t y t h r ough the c o n c e s s i o n c o n t r a c t , but a g a i n t h e r e i s a f a c t o r of 74 u n c e r t a i n t y as t o how e f f i c i e n t l y maintenance o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be met. In c o n c l u s i o n , each s t e p of i m p l e m e n t i n g a c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y can be c h a r a c t e r i z e d as being a f f e c t e d by v a r i a b l e s t h a t are w i t h i n the i n f l u e n c e of agency p o l i c y makers. T h i s produces a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t the p r e s c r i b e d p o l i c y outcome w i l l u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d . Yet, the a f f e c t of s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , such as i n t e r - a g e n c y "red tape", and the m a n a g e r i a l c a p a c i t y of the n o n - p r o f i t , i s to c r e a t e u n c e r t a i n t y as to how e f f i c i e n t l y , and when the p o l i c y outcome w i l l u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d . 5.5 INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS Answers to f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s can be f o r m u l a t e d from the p r e c e d i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s o f program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y and c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y . These q u e s t i o n s ask about the s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses are of each p o l i c y , the c a u s e o f t h e s e , and a t what p o i n t t h e p o l i c i e s a r e most v u l n e r a b l e to f a i l u r e . A l s o , t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l suggest how these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o n t r i b u t e to the b a s i c p o l i c y problem, and what t h a t problem might be. For t h i s a n a l y s i s , the s t r e n g t h of a p o l i c y i s g i v e n t o mean the c e r t a i n t y w i t h which i t can be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented. The w e a k n e s s o f a p o l i c y i s g i v e n t o mean t h a t t h e r e are s i g n i f i c a n t l e v e l s of u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the s u c c e s s f u l outcome of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Areas or phases of u n c e r t a i n t y are a l s o r e f e r r e d to as p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y . 75 R e c a l l i n g t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p h a s e s f o r t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s p o l i c y , t h e a n a l y s i s s h o w e d t h a t : (1) a g e n c y i n v o l v e m e n t a n d i n f l u e n c e i s h i g h t h r o u g h o u t p h a s e s o f p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n , a n d l o w t o n e g l i g i b l e f o r t h e p r e c e d i n g p h a s e s o f p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n ; (2) t h e o u t c o m e o f t h e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n p h a s e i s t h e m o s t u n c e r t a i n s t a g e o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ; (3) t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l p h a s e s o f t h e p o l i c y w i l l s u c c e e d . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e p r o g r a m r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y o f a c h i e v i n g o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n a l p h a s e s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e b a s i s w e a k n e s s o f t h i s p o l i c y i s t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d w i t h i t s a u t h o r i z a t i o n . F u r t h e r , i n a n s w e r t o t h e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y , i t s e e m s t h a t t h e p r i m a r y p o i n t o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y i s t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f p o l i c y o u t c o m e f o r t h e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n p h a s e . The a n a l y s i s o f c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p h a s e s s h o w e d t h a t : ( 1 ) t h e r e i s a m e d i u m a m o u n t o f a g e n c y i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h o u t a l l s t a g e s o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ; (2) t h e r e i s a h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t p o l i c y o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s c a n u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d , s t e m m i n g f r o m t h e a g e n c y ' s a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l f o r c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s t h r o u g h t h e c o n c e s s i o n c o n t r a c t ; (3 ) t h e r e i s a d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y as t o when p o l i c y o u t c o m e o b j e c t i v e s m i g h t be a c h i e v e d , s t e m m i n g f r o m t h e l a c k o f a g e n c y i n f l u e n c e o v e r s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . 76 T h i s suggests the s t r e n g t h of the c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y i s t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e p r o g r a m can be implemented and o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . The c h i e f weakness of the p o l i c y i s t h a t i t s ' i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s v u l n e r a b l e to d e l a y from s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s over w h i c h the agency has l i t t l e or no c o n t r o l . T h i s s u g g e s t s the p r i m a r y p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y i s the o p e r a t i o n a l stage of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . For both p o l i c i e s , i t seems t h a t the l e v e l of agency i n f l u e n c e over c o n t r i b u t i n g p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s c o r r e l a t e s to the c e r t a i n t y to which a phase can be a c h i e v e d . I suggest t h a t when t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of agency i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y of outcome. When the agency has a low degree of i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e i s a low degree of c e r t a i n t y of outcome, o r , the outcome i s s a i d to be u n c e r t a i n . F i e l d p e r s o n n e l have proposed the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y because they are u n c e r t a i n whether the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l ever be a u t h o r i z e d . I propose t h a t they are t r y i n g to compensate f o r u n c e r t a i n t y by i n t r o d u c i n g a p o l i c y over w h i c h they have a h i g h degree of c o n t r o l , and t h e r e f o r e can b e t t e r i n f l u e n c e the p o l i c y outcome. T h i s s u g gests t h a t a l a c k of agency c o n t r o l over c e r t a i n p o l i c y phases i s e l e m e n t a l to the d e f i n i t i o n of t h i s p o l i c y i s s u e , and the development of a s o l u t i o n to t h i s i s s u e . I f t h e l a c k o f a g e n cy c o n t r o l i s a p r i m a r y e l e m e n t o f t h e p o l i c y i s s u e , i t f o l l o w s t h a t any s o l u t i o n s to the i s s u e s h o u l d 77 i n c l u d e methods of i n c r e a s i n g agency c o n t r o l . C r i t e r i a c o u l d be developed to e v a l u a t e p o l i c y m o d i f i c a t i o n s based on the a b i l i t y t o i n c r e a s e agency c o n t r o l . Yet t h i s a n a l y s i s so f a r has l e f t untouched o t h e r e l e m e n t s of the p o l i c y i s s u e . One way to t e s t the " u n c e r t a i n t y i s s u e " and to i d e n t i f y o t h e r c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r s i s to examine the p r e m i s e s and assumptions of the p o l i c y makers i n v o l v e d i n t h i s case. T h e i r r a t i o n a l e f o r a s p e c i f i c p o l i c y recommendation might f u r t h e r s u p p o r t my p r e m i s e c o n c e r n i n g u n c e r t a i n t y , or i d e n t i f y o t h e r c r i t i c a l e l e m e n t s of the p o l i c y i s s u e . Chapter Three i n c l u d e d a d i s c u s s i o n of a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . These t e c h n i q u e s w i l l be a p p l i e d i n the next s e c t i o n of t h i s case study i n o r d e r to d e f i n e the p o s i t i o n s and p r e m i s e s of the p o l i c y makers. 5.6 ASSUMPTIONAL ANALYSIS 5.6.1 Overview of P r o c e d u r e The s u b s t a n t i v e f u n c t i o n of t h i s a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i s to check the l o g i c of my c o n j e c t u r e t h a t agency c o n t r o l , or l a c k of i t , i s the p r i m a r y p o l i c y i s s u e i n t h i s case study. The r a t i o n a l e of p o l i c y makers f o r t h e i r c h o i c e of a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y might support or d i s c r e d i t t h i s c o n j e c t u r e , or expose o t h e r c r i t i c a l e lements as of y e t u n i d e n t i f i e d . The f i r s t s t e p i n t h i s a n a l y s i s i s the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of p o l i c y s t a k e h o l d e r s . A s t a k e h o l d e r s i s someone t h a t both a f f e c t s and i s a f f e c t e d by an o r g a n i z a t i o n and i t s p o l i c i e s ( M i t r o f f 1979, p.586). T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l f o c u s on two s t a k e h o l d e r s : the d i r e c t o r of the agency, and the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t p r o p o s i n g the 78 a l t e r n a t e p o l i c y . These two s t a k e h o l d e r s have been chosen because t h e i r p o s i t i o n s a f f o r d two d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s on the same problem. The d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s of the s t a k e h o l d e r s are based on d i f f e r e n t p r e m i s e s and a s s u m p t i o n s about the p o l i c y problem and i t s i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o o t h e r management i s s u e s . I t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t w h i l e the d e f i n i t i o n of s t a k e h o l d e r a s s u m p t i o n s i s s u b j e c t i v e , every e f f o r t i s made to dev e l o p t h e s e i n a c o n s i s t e n t and r e a s o n a b l e manner from the s u p p o r t i n g d a t a . 5.6.2 Agency D i r e c t o r The D i r e c t o r of the A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Parks and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the management and o p e r a t i o n of a l l u n i t s and f a c i l i t i e s of the A l a s k a S t a t e Park System. By n a t u r e , such a p o s i t i o n e n t a i l s a "macro-approach" to d e c i s i o n making; t h i s approach i s n e c e s s a r y f o r the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of h i g h l y complex and i n t e r r e l a t e d p o l i c y i s s u e s . Other than p o l i c y making, the major r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of the d i r e c t o r i n c l u d e budgetary and l e g i s l a t i v e m a t t e r s . The d i r e c t o r a c t s as the Governor's r e p r e s e n t a t i v e ( f o r the agency) t o the l e g i s l a t u r e d u r i n g the budgetary p r o c e s s , and i s i n v o l v e d i n the l e g i s l a t i v e p r o c e s s f o r m a t t e r s c o n c e r n i n g S t a t e Park u n i t s and programs. Of i m p o r t a n c e to t h i s a n a l y s i s i s the approach the d i r e c t o r has taken t o the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the PUC program. In 79 a memo to the DNR Commissioner r e q u e s t i n g A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a d o p t i o n of the fee b i l l , he w r i t e s t h a t the D i v i s i o n ' s approach i s t o : ...mesh c a b i n and park f e e s t o g e t h e r w i t h our o t h e r f e e programs such as guide and c o m m e r c i a l o u t f i t t e r fees...one b i l l i s e a s i e r t o manage than s e v e r a l . (AK DPOR 1986e, p . l ) . A l t h o u g h t h i s case s t u d y has so f a r approached the PUC p r o g r a m as an i s o l a t e d i s s u e , a c t u a l l y i t i s one o f a number o f agency programs w i t h economic components t h a t share s i m i l a r c o n s t r a i n t s and o b j e c t i v e s . Those o t h e r programs i n c l u d e campground o p e r a t i o n and maintenance, and guide and c o m m e r c i a l o u t f i t t e r programs. The major c o n s t r a i n t f o r a l l programs w i t h an economic component i s House B i l l 696. From the d i r e c t o r ' s memo of August 20, 1986: ...our b i g f e a r i s t h a t t h e s e EXISTING f e e s [ i . e . , p u b l i c use c a b i n s , g u i d e and o u t f i t t e r f e e s ] w i l l be s u n s e t t e d come J u l y 1987 by the newly en a c t e d Procurement B i l l (HB 696) . Th i s c o n s t r a i n t i s i n h e r e n t l y l e g i s l a t i v e ; g i v e n the ways and means o f t h e d i r e c t o r , i t i s n a t u r a l he w o u l d p r e s s f o r a l e g i s l a t i v e s o l u t i o n t o a l e g i s l a t i v e problem. More i m p o r t a n t l y , t h i s h i g h l i g h t s another d i m e n s i o n to the d e f i n i t i o n of a p r e f e r r e d p o l i c y , t h a t being the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the c o n s t r a i n i n g d e a d l i n e of the "Procurement B i l l . " Any d e s i g n and e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y m o d i f i c a t i o n s must account f o r how w e l l the p o l i c y meets the J u l y 1, 1987 d e a d l i n e of HB 696. 80 One of the u n s t a t e d development o b j e c t i v e s s h a red by the PUC p r o g r a m and a l l o t h e r p r o g r a m s i s a r e s u l t o f t h e d i r e c t o r ' s management s t r a t e g y . G e n e r a l l y s t a t e d , h i s s t r a t e g y i s t h a t the agency s h o u l d o p e r a t e revenue r e c o v e r y programs "in-house" b e f o r e p r i v a t i z a t i o n t h r o u g h c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n . The r a t i o n a l e f o r t h i s s t r a t e g y i s t h a t t h e agency w i l l be a b l e to work a l l the "bugs" out of the system, and g a i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e i n the o p e r a t i o n of these programs. One i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h i s management p h i l o s o p h y i s t h a t i t s i g n a l s an a t t e m p t to compensate f o r u n c e r t a i n t y i n the o p e r a t i o n of new programs by k e e p i n g them in-house. As suggested p r e v i o u s l y , the more p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s an agency can c o n t r o l , the more l i k e l y the d e s i r e d outcome o b j e c t i v e s can be a c h i e v e d . I f , f o r i n s t a n c e , the a l t e r n a t i v e o p t i o n was chosen t o o p e r a t e the programs t h r o u g h c o n c e s s i o n management, agency i n v o l v e m e n t and c o n t r o l over c r i t i c a l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and o p e r a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s would d e c r e a s e . T h e r e f o r e , I would argue t h a t the d i r e c t o r has p l a c e d a h i g h v a l u e on the c e r t a i n t y of the outcome of economic p o l i c i e s by keeping them i n - h o u s e . Two t h i n g s are suggested by t h i s a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . The f i r s t i s t h a t the e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s must tak e i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n l a r g e r c o n t e x t u a l i s s u e s , such as HB 696. Second, i t s u g g e s t s t h a t the D i v i s i o n d i r e c t o r p l a c e s a h i g h v a l u e on c o n t r o l l i n g the outcome of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , t h i s being based on the d e s c r i p t i o n of h i s s t r a t e g y f o r PUC program development. I t a l s o r a i s e s the q u e s t i o n t h a t i f both 81 the d i r e c t o r and the a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t p l a c e a h i g h v a l u e on c o n t r o l l i n g f o r c e r t a i n t y of p o l i c y , why do they recommend d i f f e r e n t approaches? 5.6.3 Area S u p e r i n t e n d e n t Area s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s w i t h i n the agency are r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the day-to-day maintenance and o p e r a t i o n of S t a t e Park u n i t s w i t h i n a g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a . The a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t i s a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p e r s o n n e l m a t t e r s , budgetary m a t t e r s , and r e p o r t s to one of the t h r e e r e g i o n a l managers of the agency. The r o l e of the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t i s to implement the p o l i c i e s "handed down" from the c e n t r a l o f f i c e ( a l t h o u g h a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s p l a y an a c t i v e a d v i s o r y r o l e i n p o l i c y d e velopment). T h e r e f o r e , h i s c h i e f duty, p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n , i s q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from t h a t of the d i r e c t o r s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r p o l i c y development. While the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t does work w i t h i n the b o u n d a r i e s of l e g i s l a t i v e and p o l i c y d i r e c t i v e s , h i s ways and means are p r i m a r i l y c a r r i e d out i n the o p e r a t i o n a l s t a g e s of a p o l i c y . T h i s would suggest t h a t i f c o n f r o n t e d w i t h a p o l i c y p roblem, he would l o o k f o r a s o l u t i o n i n the management of program o p e r a t i o n s . T h i s i s i n t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m and t h e s o l u t i o n s proposed by the a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t . The r e c o v e r y of revenue f o r the maintenance and o p e r a t i o n of Nancy Lake S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area c a b i n s had been a p r i o r i t y c o n cern f o r the a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t even b e f o r e HB 696 was 82 a u t h o r i z e d . In a number o f m e e t i n g s i n t h e s p r i n g and summer o f 1986, the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t e x p r e s s e d the o p i n i o n t h a t both program r e c e i p t s and c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n were a v i a b l e means of revenue r e c o v e r y , g i v e n t h a t adequate r e s o u r c e s were a v a i l a b l e to o p e r a t i o n a l i z e one of the p o l i c i e s . The s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , i n h i s " e i t h e r - o r - b o t h " p o l i c y approach to g e t t i n g the j o b of revenue r e c o v e r y done by whatever means p o s s i b l e i s a t t e m p t i n g t o r e t a i n the number of o p t i o n s he has a v a i l a b l e f o r h i s use. The p r e f e r r e d p o l i c y s o l u t i o n of the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , combined p o l i c i e s , does not c o n t r a d i c t the d i r e c t o r ' s approach to the problem, or h i s s t r a t e g y f o r keeping revenue r e c o v e r y in-house. F i r s t , the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t can use the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i f i t a u t h o r i z e d , or have the c o n c e s s i o n s t r a t e g y a v a i l a b l e as a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . S econdly, h i s system of PUCs has been i n o p e r a t i o n s i n c e 1984, so one might suggest t h a t h i s s t a f f have g a i n e d a f a i r amount o f e x p e r t i s e i n t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e program and t h e r e f o r e would be ready to "put the program out" to p r i v a t e s e c t o r o p e r a t i o n . In t r y i n g to keep every p o l i c y door f o r revenue r e c o v e r y open, the area s u p e r i n t e n d e n t i s i n c r e a s i n g the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t some form of revenue r e c o v e r y w i l l be a v a i l a b l e f o r h i s use. I t shows he p l a c e s a h i g h v a l u e on t h e c e r t a i n t y o f p o l i c y outcome. For t h i s e v a l u a t i o n i t w i l l be i m p o r t a n t t o t r a n s l a t e t h i s v a l u e i n t o a c r i t e r i o n f o r d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a p o l i c y s o l u t i o n . 83 In answer to the q u e s t i o n posed i n the l a s t s e c t i o n , the p r o p o s a l of the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t d i f f e r s from the d i r e c t o r s ' o n l y so f a r as i t adds t o the l a t t e r s p o s i t i o n . The s u p e r i n t e n d e n t ' s approach i s to r e t a i n each a l t e r n a t i v e i n o r d e r to i n c r e a s e c e r t a i n t y of outcome, t h i s being a f u n c t i o n of h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n s . 5.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS In Chapter Two we saw t h a t the consensus of D i v i s i o n p e r s o n n e l was t h a t revenue r e c o v e r y was a r e q u i s i t e f o r c o n t i n u e d development and o p e r a t i o n of the PUC program. We a l s o saw t h a t two p o l i c i e s had been proposed to meet t h i s need. In t h i s c h a p t e r the b a s i c i s s u e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the s e p o l i c i e s have been i d e n t i f i e d f o r e v a l u a t i o n by methods of p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s . The r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s have c o n c l u d e d t h a t both p o l i c i e s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y were proposed to i n c r e a s e the c e r t a i n t y t h a t p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s would be a c h i e v e d . In the a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s , i t was suggested t h a t both p o l i c y s t a k e h o l d e r s p l a c e a h i g h v a l u e on the c e r t a i n t y of p o l i c y outcome. In the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , the i n h e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s of each p o l i c y were i d e n t i f i e d . From t h i s I c o n c l u d e d t h a t the two s t a k e h o l d e r s proposed d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s because of t h e i r i n h e r e n t l y d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s on p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s . 84 The f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s f o r t h i s case concerned the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y , a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l f a c t o r s , and p o i n t s o f v u l n e r a b i l i t y . In the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y , I c o n c l u d e d t h a t the s t r e n g t h of t h i s p o l i c y l i e s i n the h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y f o r a c h i e v i n g p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s i n o p e r a t i o n a l phases. I a l s o c o n c l u d e d t h a t the b a s i c weakness and p r i m a r y p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y i s the h i g h degree of u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d w i t h i t s a u t h o r i z a t i o n . In the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s of the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y , t h e m a j o r s t r e n g t h was s u g g e s t e d t o be t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t the program can be implemented and o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . The c h i e f w e akness o f t h i s p o l i c y i s t h a t i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s v u l n e r a b l e t o d e l a y from s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s over which the agency has l i t t l e or no i n f l u e n c e . The r e s u l t s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s suggest t h e r e i s a c o r r e l a t i o n between the l e v e l of agency i n f l u e n c e over p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s i n a s p e c i f i c phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , and the c e r t a i n t y of a c h i e v i n g p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h a t phase. F o r t h i s c a s e , i t w o u l d seem t h a t when t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of agency i n f l u e n c e or i n v o l v e m e n t , t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y of outcome. When the agency has a low degree of i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e i s a low degree of c e r t a i n t y of outcome. 8 5 For the agency d i r e c t o r , the problem of revenue r e c o v e r y i s p r i m a r i l y l e g i s l a t i v e , and t h e r e f o r e i s to be s o l v e d by l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n of a program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . With the a u t h o r i z a t i o n of the p o l i c y , i t s o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n c o u l d be undertaken w h o l l y w i t h i n the agency, t h e o r e t i c a l l y g u a r a n t e e i n g a s u c c e s s f u l outcome. For the agency s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , the problem of revenue r e c o v e r y i s e x a c e r b a t e d i f the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s not a u t h o r i z e d . In t h i s s c e n a r i o , the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t would be f a c e d w i t h the c o n t i n u e d maintenance of a program f o r v/hich no o p e r a t i n g a p p r o p r i a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e . T h e r e f o r e , he has a t t e m p t e d to r e t a i n a l l p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y by p r o p o s i n g a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y i n the form of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y . U n t i l now, t h i s a n a l y s i s has not c o n c l u s i v e l y demonstrated the i m p a c t s of " p o l i c y f a i l u r e " on program o p e r a t i o n s . For the s u p e r i n t e n d e n t ' s proposed c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y s u b s t a n t i a t e d , the f a i l u r e of program r e c e i p t s would have to s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p a ct the PUC program. F u r t h e r , i t must be shown t h a t t h e r e i s a good c a u s e f o r a d o p t i n g a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y , t h a t t h e r e i s a good chance the program r e c e i p t s s t r a t e g y w i l l f a i l . F i n a l l y , i t must be demonstrated t h a t the c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y w i l l e f f e c t i v e l y a c h i e v e c r i t i c a l p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s . These i s s u e s w i l l be t e s t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r i n o r d e r to support or d i s c r e d i t the proposed c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . 86 CHAPTER 6 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RECOVERY ALTERNATIVES 6.1 INTRODUCTION The p u r p o s e o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o f o r e c a s t t h e i m p a c t s of program o p e r a t i o n s under the c o n t r a s t i n g s c e n a r i o s of c o n c e s s i o n a i r e management and o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue r e c o v e r y . From th e s e f o r e c a s t s i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e to answer the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of the two s c e n a r i o s , and come to a c o n c l u s i o n about an optimum p o l i c y s t r a t e g y . S e c t i o n 6.2 d e f i n e s t h r e e i s s u e s e s s e n t i a l to the a n a l y s i s of the p o l i c y problem: the u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d i n the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s , the i m p a c t s of a f a i l e d program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e , and the i m p a c t s of the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y implemented as a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y . These i s s u e s are d e f i n e d w i t h i n the framework of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate, w h i c h c o n c l u d e s w i t h a recommendation f o r a p r e f e r r e d p o l i c y s t r a t e g y . The p r e m i s e s and i s s u e s s u p p o r t i n g t h i s recommendation become the f o c u s of a p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s . 87 S e c t i o n 6.3 d e s c r i b e s the model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s t h a t w i l l be a p p l i e d t o t h e l a t t e r o f t h e two p o l i c y p r e m i s e s . S e c t i o n s 6.4 and 6.5 f o r e c a s t the i m p a c t s of program o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t revenue r e c o v e r y , and under c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n , u s i n g the model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . S e c t i o n 6.6 a p p l i e s the r e s u l t s of the p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s to the i s s u e s f i r s t d e f i n e d i n the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate i n o r d e r t o s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t the recommendation f o r an optimum p o l i c y s t r a t e g y . T h i s s e c t i o n a l s o a d d r e s s e s the f i n a l s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s and problem s t a t e m e n t f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s . 6.2 IDENTIFICATION OF POLICY ISSUES In t h i s c h a p t e r , the t h r e e w a r r a n t s and r e b u t t a l s t h a t c o m p r i s e the p o l i c y debate are the p r i m a r y p o i n t of i m p a c t a n a l y s i s ; each i s framed to p r o v i d e f o r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of c r i t e r i a on which the a l t e r n a t e p o l i c i e s can be e v a l u a t e d . The p o l i c y debate developed f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s i s made up of p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n , t h r e e p o l i c y s u b - i s s u e s , and a c o n c l u d i n g p o l i c y c l a i m . The p o l i c y debate i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n i t s e n t i r e t y on the f o l l o w i n g page i n F i g u r e 6.1. 88 POLICY RELEVANT INFORMATION The d e c i s i o n to implement the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y f o r revenue recovery i s e x t e r n a l _ to the agency. WARRANT It i s u n c e r t a i n whether the program r e c e i p t s -p o l i c y w i l l be implemented. BACKING (B) Past l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s have f a i l e d and can f a i l a g a i n . REBUTTAL (R) The d i r e c t o r i s c o n f i d e n t of the .passage of l e g i s l a t i o n f o r program r e c e i p t s . BACKING (B) The d i r e c t o r i s p r i v y to informal communications from the l e g i s l a t u r e . WARRANT (VI) The l o c k of revenue recovery w i l l have a s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e impact on the PUC program, REBUTTAL (R) C r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l not be a c h i e v e d . FIGURE 6,1, STRUCTURE OF POLICY DEBATE POLICY CLAIM (C) The agency should QUALIFIER (Q) implement a p o l i c y t h a t combines program THEREFORE - ^ r e c e i p t s and c o n c e s s i o n s t r a t e g i e s . REBUTTAL (R) The program w i l l not be s i g n i f i c a n t l y impacted, BACKING (B) C r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s can be a c h i e v e s w i t h o u t revenue r e c o v e r y , WARRANT (W) The agency s h o u l d implement a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l I c y t o ensure revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the PUC i n t h e case t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s not a u t h o r i z e d . BACKING (B) An e x i s t i n g c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y c o u l d be adopted and c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s would be a c h i e v e d . REBUTTAL (R) The agency cannot s u c c e s s f u l l y • implement the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y . BACKING (B) I t does not have the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e or o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y , The debate i s i n i t i a t e d over the f e a s a b i l i t y of the e x i s t i n g p o l i c y , and i n l a t e r s t a g e s moves i n t o a d i s c u s s i o n of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . The opening of the d e b a t e — a s t a t e m e n t of p o l i c y r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n l a b e l l e d ( I ) , reads: The d e c i s i o n t o implement the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y i s e x t e r n a l t o the agency. T h i s p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n r e f e r s t o the n e c e s s a r y l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y must r e c e i v e t o be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . T h i s p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n i s not de s i g n e d t o support or d i s c r e d i t the revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y ; i n s t e a d , a s s u m p t i o n s and p r e m i s e s based on t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n a re used i n the f o r m a t i o n of p o l i c y s u b - i s s u e s . Each p o l i c y s u b - i s s u e i s made up o f f o u r e l e m e n t s : a p o l i c y w a r r a n t (W), p o l i c y r e b u t t a l (R), and a b a c k i n g (B) f o r each w a r r a n t and r e b u t t a l . The p o l i c y w a r r a n t i s an assu m p t i o n or p r e m i s e t h a t s u p p o r t s the c o n c l u d i n g p o l i c y c l a i m . The p o l i c y r e b u t t a l i s a c o n t r a s t i n g a s s u m p t i o n o r p r e m i s e from the o r i g i n a l w a r r a n t ; the p o l i c y w a r r a n t and r e b u t t a l form the substance of the i s s u e . The b a c k i n g of p o l i c y w a r r a n t s and r e b u t t a l s are used t o s u b s t a n t i a t e the p r e m i s e s and assumptions made i n the cour s e of the debate. The c o n c l u s i o n of the p o l i c y debate i s the p o l i c y c l a i m . T h i s i s a n o r m a t i v e s t a t e m e n t s u g g e s t i n g an optimum p o l i c y , based on the w a r r a n t s of the debate i s s u e s . The e f f i c a c y of the p o l i c y c l a i m , and s u p p o r t i n g i s s u e s , w i l l not be t e s t e d i n t h i s 90 s e c t i o n . R ather, they w i l l be t e s t e d w i t h t e c h n i q u e s of p o l i c y i mpact a n a l y s i s i n the second h a l f of t h i s c h a p t e r . 6.2.1 U n c e r t a i n t y I s s u e The f a i l u r e s of p a s t l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s f o r the a u t h o r i z a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s f o r the PUC program were d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter Two. In Chapter F i v e i t was p o i n t e d out t h a t the p r i m a r y p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y was the p r o c e s s of l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n , as t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h i s p r o c e s s . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n forms the b a s i s f o r the f i r s t p o l i c y i s s u e (see F i g u r e 6.1). The combined w a r r a n t and b a c k i n g f o r t h i s i s s u e reads : I t i s u n c e r t a i n whether the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l be implemented [because] p a s t l e g i s l a t i v e i n i t i a t i v e s have f a i l e d and can f a i l a g a i n . Such a p r e m i s e might r e f l e c t the p o s i t i o n of f i e l d p e r s o n n e l concerned about the f e a s a b i l i t y of the chosen p o l i c y s t r a t e g y . In e f f e c t , t h i s p r e m i s e forms the i n i t i a l c r i t i q u e o f the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . The r e b u t t a l t o t h i s a r g ument i s based on a p o s i t i o n t h a t might be taken by the d i r e c t o r of the agency. In c o n t r a s t to t h e a r g u m e n t t h a t i t i s u n c e r t a i n t h a t t h e p o l i c y w i l l be implemented, the r e b u t t a l s t a t e s : The d i r e c t o r of the agency i s c o n f i d e n t of p a s s i n g the l e g i s l a t i o n a u t h o r i z i n g the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y [because] he i s p r i v y t o i n f o r m a l communications from the l e g i s l a t u r e . 91 In the c o u r s e of i n t e r a c t i n g w i t h the l e g i s l a t u r e , agency d i r e c t o r s o f t e n d e v e l o p a network of f r i e n d l y l e g i s l a t o r s and s t a f f . T h i s network may g i v e the d i r e c t o r i n s i d e i n f o r m a t i o n about the p r o s p e c t s of the passage of a p i e c e of l e g i s l a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e t h e a r g u m e n t i s made t h a t t h e r e i s a h i g h e r d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t the p o l i c y w i l l be passed than the o p p o s i n g s i d e i s w i l l i n g to admit. At the end of the d a t a g a t h e r i n g p e r i o d f o r t h i s case study (August 1986) t h e r e was no c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e r e g a r d i n g the a u t h o r i z a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y by the l e g i s l a t u r e . Because the p r o b a b i l i t y of a u t h o r i z a t i o n cannot be c o n c l u s i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d , i t i s d i f f i c u l t to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t e i t h e r argument. Yet, g i v e n the i n h e r e n t u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n v o l v e d i n the f o u r s t e p p r o c e s s of l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n (see s e c t i o n 4.3.1), i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the p o l i c y i s u n c e r t a i n . 6.2.2 P o l i c y F a i l u r e Issue The second p o l i c y argument makes a s u p p o s i t i o n aimed a t the i m p a c t of the f a i l u r e of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The w a r r a n t and b a c k i n g f o r t h i s argument r e a d s : The l a c k of a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism w i l l have a s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t on the PUC program [because] c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l not be a c h i e v e d . T h i s s t a t e m e n t i s based on the a s s u m p t i o n t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l not be a u t h o r i z e d , r e s u l t i n g i n 92 "the l a c k of a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism." In e f f e c t i t assumes a worst case s c e n a r i o ; t h a t because t h e r e i s no mechanism f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , n e c e s s a r y program o p e r a t i o n s w i l l not be undertaken because of a l a c k of f u n d i n g . The r e b u t t a l to t h i s argument i s : The program w i l l not be s i g n i f i c a n t l y impacted [because] c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s can be a c h i e v e d w i t h o u t a mechanism f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . Given the i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d f o r t h i s case s t u d y , i t i s p o s s i b l e to s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t these p o l i c y p r e m i s e s . Both t h e s e a s s e r t i o n s w i l l be t e s t e d w i t h p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s methods i n the second h a l f of t h i s c h a p t e r . A l s o from t h i s a n a l y s i s , the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of p o l i c y f a i l u r e on program o p e r a t i o n s can be answered. 6.2.3 Contingency P o l i c y Issue The t h i r d and f i n a l debate i s s u e addressed the m o d i f i e d p o l i c y proposed by the area s u p e r i n t e n d e n t . The p r e m i s e s of t h i s argument are i n the form of advocacy s t a t e m e n t s , and l i k e the p r e v i o u s i s s u e , a r e l e n t to t e s t i n g by p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s . The w a r r a n t and b a c k i n g read: The agency s h o u l d implement a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y t h a t would ensure revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the program i n the case of p o l i c y f a i l u r e [because] an e x i s t i n g c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y c o u l d be adopted and c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s would be a c h i e v e d w i t h t h i s p o l i c y . The r e b u t t a l to t h i s argument i s : 93 The agency cannot s u c c e s s f u l l y implement the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y [because] i t does not have the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e or o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y . T h i s r e b u t t a l t a k e s i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o n s t r a i n t s i d e n t i f i e d i n s e c t i o n 5.6.3. In s e c t i o n 5.6.3, i t was d e t e r m i n e d t h a t agency r e s o u r c e s ( i . e . , manpower and f u n d i n g ) were n e c e s s a r y f o r the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y . The a n a l y s i s of the i m p a c t s of a m o d i f i e d p o l i c y w i l l a l s o c o n s i d e r the l e g i s l a t i v e c o n s t r a i n t imposed by the Procurement B i l l , HB 696 (see s e c t i o n 5.6.2). From t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h i s t h i r d p o l i c y i s s u e , the answers to the f i n a l s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s f o r t h i s t h e s i s can be d eveloped. These s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s concern the i m p a c t s of a m o d i f i e d p o l i c y on program o p e r a t i o n s and agency o p e r a t i o n s . 6.2.4 P o l i c y C l a i m Based on the t h r e e arguments t h a t : (1) i t i s u n c e r t a i n whether the e x i s t i n g revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y w i l l be implemented; (2) t h a t the f a i l u r e of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n would s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p a c t the program; and, (3) t h a t the agency c o u l d implement a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y t o ensure the r e c o v e r y of revenue f o r the PUC program, f o r the purpose of debate I make the f o l l o w i n g p o l i c y recommendation or c l a i m . The agency s h o u l d implement a p o l i c y t h a t combines both s t r a t e g i e s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y ( i . e . , program r e c e i p t s and c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n ) . Under t h i s p o l i c y , the d i r e c t o r would a d v i s e h i s s t a f f t h a t c o n c u r r e n t to the ongoing p r o c e s s of g a i n i n g 94 l e g i s l a t i v e a p p r o v a l of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y they may choose to pursue c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the r e s p e c t i v e PUC systems. T h i s p o l i c y c l a i m i s the f i r s t a t t e m pt a t a n s w e r i n g the problem s t a t e m e n t of t h i s t h e s i s ( i . e . , what i s the most e f f e c t i v e revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y ) . The r e s u l t s of the p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s w i l l t h e n be u s e d t o " t e s t " t h e m e r i t o f t h i s c l a i m a l o n g w i t h the accompanying p r e m i s e s , and make a c o n c l u s i o n about the optimum p o l i c y s t r a t e g y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . 6.3 POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS ELEMENTS In the p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , two p r e m i s e s were i d e n t i f i e d i n su p p o r t of the c l a i m t h a t a combined revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i s the p r e f e r r e d p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . For the purpose of t e s t i n g the l o g i c of these p r e m i s e s , Cook and S c i o l i ' s model of p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s w i l l be a p p l i e d t o s c e n a r i o s based on these p r e m i s e s . The e l e m e n t s of t h i s p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s model ( i . e . , program o b j e c t i v e s , program a c t i v i t i e s , p erformance measurement c r i t e r i a ) w i l l be developed i n t h i s s e c t i o n 6.2.1 thr o u g h s e c t i o n 6.2.3. S e c t i o n s 6.3 and 6.4 a r t i c u l a t e the s c e n a r i o s by d e s c r i b i n g program a c t i v i t i e s under the r e s p e c t i v e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . Performance measurement c r i t e r i a are then a p p l i e d t o the s c e n a r i o s i n o r d e r to f o r e c a s t the i m p a c t s of each p o l i c y . 95 The f i r s t i s s u e t o be a d d r e s s e d i s w h e t h e r o r n o t c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be a c h i e v e d , g i v e n a s i t u a t i o n i n which no revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i s o p e r a t i o n a l . The second i s s u e a l s o f o c u s e s on the achievement of program o b j e c t i v e s , o n l y t h i s t i m e g i v e n the s c e n a r i o t h a t a combined p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y i s implemented. In the a n a l y s i s of these two i s s u e s , i d e n t i c a l o b j e c t i v e s and measurement c r i t e r i a w i l l be used. The d i f f e r e n c e between the two a n a l y s e s i s i n the d e s c r i p t i o n of program a c t i v i t i e s ; one assumes the l a c k of a method of revenue r e c o v e r y , the o t h e r assumes a c o m b i n a t i o n of revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c i e s . The f o r e c a s t s made f o r the p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s are not i n t e n d e d to a s s e s s the p r o b a b i l i t y of the g i v e n e v e nts o c c u r i n g . I n s t e a d they are a p p l i e d as a t e s t of the l o g i c of the c l a i m t h a t a combined revenue r e c o v e r y s t r a t e g y i s the p r e f e r r e d a l t e r n a t i v e . The f o r e c a s t s w i l l a l s o be a p p l i e d t o the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of p o l i c y f a i l u r e f o r program r e c e i p t s , and the i m p a c t s of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s on the program and the agency. 6.3.1 Program O b j e c t i v e s Cook and S c i o l i i d e n t i f y two t y p e s of program o b j e c t i v e s : outcome o b j e c t i v e s and p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s . Outcome o b j e c t i v e s are e x t e r n a l to program o p e r a t i o n s ; they a r e "the i m p a c t s of the program on a s p e c i f i c s o c i o - p h y s i c a l t a r g e t " (Cook and S c i o l i , 1975, p.97). Outcome o b j e c t i v e s c o r r e s p o n d to wide-sweeping p o l i c y m i s s i o n s t a t e m e n t s . The t h r e e o b j e c t i v e s 96 i d e n t i f i e d here are adapted from p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s f o r the PUC program and the agency: (1) to i n c r e a s e and enhance a c c e s s to r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s (program p o l i c y g o a l ) ; (2) to p r o v i d e f o r p u b l i c s a f e t y ( s t a t u t o r i a l mandate f o r agency); (3) to p r o v i d e s u p p o r t to the s t a t e ' s t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y (agency p o l i c y g o a l ) . P o l i c y i m p a c t s on these c a t e g o r i e s would not be f e l t w i t h i n the agency, but r a t h e r by the p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n i s t o r the p r i v a t e t o u r i s t o p e r a t o r . S e c t i o n 6.2.3 d e s c r i b e s the c r i t e r i a used t o f o r e c a s t and measure the i m p a c t s of each p o l i c y s c e n a r i o on t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s . The second type of program o b j e c t i v e , p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s , are i n t e r n a l to the program; they concern the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s p e c t s of the program. The a t t a i n m e n t o f p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s i s n e c e s s a r y i f outcome o b j e c t i v e s and more g e n e r a l o b j e c t i v e s such as c o n t i n u e d program o p e r a t i o n a r e to be a c h i e v e d . The p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s i d e n t i f i e d f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s are borrowed from o p e r a t i o n s g o a l s and revenue r e c o v e r y g o a l s f o r the PUC program. They a r e : (1) t o m a i n t a i n a s a f e and a p p r o p r i a t e s t a n d a r d of s e r v i c e u s i n g c o s t - e f f e c t i v e management methods; (2) to r e t u r n c a b i n r e n t a l revenue to the program f o r the maintenance of the c a b i n s . The f i r s t s c e n a r i o assumes t h a t the program w i l l be o p e r a t e d w i t h o u t a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism; t h e r e f o r e , t h i s p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e does not p e r t a i n . 97 6.3.2 Program A c t i v i t i e s Program a c t i v i t i e s a re the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of program d e l i v e r y . How e f f e c t i v e l y and e f f i c i e n t l y t hese a c t i v i t i e s a re c a r r i e d out by an agency w i l l d e t e r m i n e whether or not program o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be a c h i e v e d . In Chapter F i v e , s e c t i o n 5.3 and 5.4 d e t a i l e d a s p e c t s of revenue r e c o v e r y and f a c i l i t y maintenance. In t h i s s e c t i o n t hese o p e r a t i o n s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d as program a c t i v i t i e s , a l o n g w i t h c a t e g o r i e s of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e performance and program p r i o r i t i z a t i o n . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e p erformance r e f e r s to the e x p e r t i s e a v a i l a b l e to the agency to o p e r a t i o n a l i z e the revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y . T h i s a s p e c t would i n c o r p o r a t e the r e b u t t a l t o the second p o l i c y p r e m i s e ; t h i s r e b u t t a l s u g g ests t h a t the l a c k of agency e x p e r t i s e would c o n s t r a i n s u c c e s s f u l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a m o d i f i e d p o l i c y . Program p r i o r i t i z a t i o n r e f e r s t o the l e v e l of f i s c a l and p e r s o n n e l r e s o u r c e s a s s i g n e d to the program. T h i s a s p e c t a l s o i n c o r p o r a t e s a r e b u t t a l to the second p o l i c y p r e m i s e - t h a t a l a c k o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y would c o n s t r a i n s u c c e s s f u l p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . T r a d i t i o n a l l y the program has been a s s i g n e d a low p r i o r i t y i n r e l a t i o n t o o t h e r agency programs. Depending on the p o l i c y s c e n a r i o , t h i s p r i o r i t y may r i s e or f a l l . The next 98 s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e s c r i t e r i a f o r the measurement of p r i o r i t y l e v e l s , a l o n g w i t h performance measurement c r i t e r i a f o r o t h e r program a c t i v i t i e s . 6.3.3 Performance Measurement C r i t e r i a Performance measurement c r i t e r i a a r e used to i n d i c a t e how e f f e c t i v e l y and e f f i c i e n t l y a g i v e n a s p e c t of a program may or may not be a c h i e v i n g s e l e c t e d o b j e c t i v e s . F i v e c r i t e r i a w i l l be used i n the a n a l y s i s of the two p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s ; t h i s s e c t i o n e x p l a i n s the r a t i o n a l e f o r the c h o i c e of these c r i t e r i a . The f i v e c r i t e r i a a r e : (1) number of c a b i n u s e r s ; (2) number of c a b i n s open to the p u b l i c on a r e n t a l b a s i s ; (3) number of c o m p l a i n t s about c a b i n c o n d i t i o n ; (4) number of s t a f f maintenance hours per c a b i n ; ( 5 ) amount of funds a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n s and development. In the p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n f i e l d , one of the s i m p l e s t i n d i c a t o r s of program e f f e c t i v e n e s s i s the number of persons s e r v e d by a g i v e n program. In t h i s c a s e , a f o r e c a s t of i n c r e a s e s o r d e c r e a s e s of the numbers of c a b i n u s e r s i s assumed to r e f l e c t whether o r not r e c r e a t i o n a c c e s s has been i n c r e a s e d . S i m i l a r l y , t h e number o f c a b i n s open t o t h e p u b l i c i s t a k e n as an i n d i c a t o r of how w e l l r e c r e a t i o n a l a c c e s s o b j e c t i v e s are being a c h i e v e d . The a r gument c o u l d be made (and i s made a n n u a l l y by t h e agency d i r e c t o r at l e g i s l a t i v e budget h e a r i n g s ) t h a t number o f 99 u s e r s and number of f a c i l i t i e s i s i n d i c a t i v e of the l e v e l of s u p p o r t the agency i s p r o v i d i n g f o r the t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y . The U.S. F o r e s t S e r v i c e has d e t e r m i n e d t h a t e x p e n d i t u r e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the use of the average p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l c a b i n i n A l a s k a t o t a l $29,000 per year. T h i s t r a n s l a t e s i n t o $29,000 per y e a r , per c a b i n of support f o r p r i v a t e s e c t o r t o u r i s m r e l a t e d b u s i n e s s e s . T h e r e f o r e , numbers of c a b i n u s e r s and c a b i n s open t o t h e p u b l i c w i l l be t a k e n t o i n d i c a t e how w e l l a g i v e n p o l i c y s c e n a r i o might a t t a i n t o u r i s m o b j e c t i v e s . Measurement c r i t e r i a f o r the number of c o m p l a i n t s i s aimed a t p u b l i c s a f e t y o b j e c t i v e s and maintenance o b j e c t i v e s . The number of c o m p l a i n t s an agency r e c e i v e s about a f a c i l i t y i s taken to i n d i c a t e whether adequate maintenance s e r v i c e s a re being p r o v i d e d . I would a l s o suggest t h a t the number of c o m p l a i n t s r e f l e c t s the r e l a t i v e s a f e t y of a f a c i l i t y . As the l e v e l of r e p a i r i n a p u b l i c f a c i l i t y d e c r e a s e s ( r e s u l t i n g i n an i n c r e a s e d number of c o m p l a i n t s ) , i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t the s a f e t y of such a f a c i l i t y would a l s o d e c r e a s e . The number of c o m p l a i n t s r e c e i v e d about c a b i n c o n d i t i o n i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e number o f s t a f f h o u r s s p e n t i n t h e maintenance of each c a b i n . I t i s assumed t h a t when an a p p r o p r i a t e amount of maintenance t i m e i s a l l o c a t e d per c a b i n (as d e f i n e d i n the PUC program p l a n ) , maintenance and s a f e t y o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be a c h i e v e d , and user c o m p l a i n t s w i l l be m i n i m i z e d . T h e r e f o r e , i n c r e a s e s or d e c r e a s e s i n s t a f f 100 maintenance t i m e g i v e n i s an i m p o r t a n t i n d i c a t o r f o r the a n a l y s i s of a l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s . The amount of funds a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n s and development i s a p a r t i a l measure of the p r i o r i t y the D i v i s i o n g i v e s t o the PUC program, r e l a t i v e to o t h e r programs. Other i n d i c a t o r s are o f t e n l e s s f o r m a l i n n a t u r e , such as i n f o r m a l d i r e c t i v e s from the agency e x e c u t i v e , w h i c h i n some ca s e s can f l u c t u a t e g r e a t l y w i t h i n a s h o r t p e r i o d of t i m e . From a p e r s p e c t i v e w i t h i n an agency, such i n d i c a t o r s can be r e l i a b l e and v a l i d . Because i n f o r m a l d i r e c t i v e s o f t e n defy t h i s case w i l l r e l y on annual a p p r o p r i a t i o n s as an i n d i c a t o r of program p r i o r i t y . The f i v e measurement c r i t e r i a w i l l be a p p l i e d t o s c e n a r i o s f o r program a c t i v i t i e s under each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e i n the f o l l o w i n g two s e c t i o n s . I t s h o u l d be a g a i n r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s i s not t o make a s c i e n t i f i c a l l y a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n of the i m p a c t s of each p o l i c y . I n s t e a d , they are chosen f o r t h e i r a b i l i t y to support a c h o i c e among p o l i c y o p t i o n s . 6.4 POLICY SCENARIO: POLICY FAILURE T h i s s c e n a r i o i s d e r i v e d from the w a r r a n t t h a t the l a c k of a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism w i l l have s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t on the PUC program. In t h i s s c e n a r i o , i t i s assumed t h a t l e g i s l a t i o n f o r program r e c e i p t s f a i l s a d o p t i o n by the s t a t e l e g i s l a t u r e . The s c e n a r i o a l s o assumes t h a t the p r e v i o u s l y passed House B i l l 696 (Procurement B i l l ) has taken e f f e c t ( t h i s 101 l e g i s l a t i o n p r e v e n t s agency c o l l e c t i o n of f e e s w i t h o u t p r i o r s t a t u t o r i a l a u t h o r i z a t i o n ) . The s c e n a r i o makes f o r e c a s t s f o r program a c t i v i t i e s at Nancy Lake S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area (NLSRA), and e x t r a p o l a t e s the i m p a c t s of these a c t i v i t i e s t o the s t a t e w i d e system of c a b i n s . T h i s u n i t was chosen because t h e r e i s a h i s t o r y of r e c r e a t i o n a l use and management e x p e r i e n c e w i t h the PUC program s i n c e 1984, because the p o t e n t i a l e x i s t s to t r i p l e the number of PUCs o p e r a t e d through f a c i l i t y r e h a b i l i t a t i o n , and because c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s have been proposed f o r t h i s u n i t . The major d i f f e r e n c e between PUC systems throughout the s t a t e i s a c c e s s i b i l i t y . The NLSRA PUCs, al o n g w i t h those i n the Chena R i v e r SRA, can be reached by h i k i n g from a roadway. The c a b i n s l o c a t e d on the Kodiak a r c h i p e l a g o and i n South e a s t A l a s k a can be reached o n l y by p l a n e o r boat; t h e r e f o r e a c c e s s c o s t s a re much h i g h e r , both i n terms of money and p e r s o n n e l t i m e . T h i s v a r i a b l e w i l l be r e c o g n i z e d throughout t h i s s e c t i o n i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y any e f f e c t s i t m i g h t have on p o l i c y i m p a c t f o r e c a s t s . The t i m e h o r i z o n f o r t h e s e s c e n a r i o s w i l l be f r o m J u l y 1, 1987 to J u l y 1, 1989 ( f i s c a l y e a r s 1988 and 1989 f o r the agency) . T h i s i s b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t g i v e n t h e s h o r t h i s t o r y of program development, p o l i c y i m p a c t s would be f e l t q u i c k l y throughout the program. 102 6.4.1 P o l i c y / Program Performance One o f t h e f i r s t d i l e m m a s f a c e d by t h e D i v i s i o n i n t h e s c e n a r i o of "no revenue r e c o v e r y " c o n c e r n s whether or not the r e s e r v a t i o n system s h o u l d c o n t i n u e t o be o p e r a t e d even though a use f e e i s not being charged f o r the c a b i n s . P r e s e n t l y , c a b i n u s e r s must r e s e r v e a c a b i n ahead o f t i m e , a l o n g w i t h p a y i n g a f e e f o r the use of the f a c i l i t y . The b e n e f i t of c o n t i n u i n g t o o p e r a t e the system i s t h a t i t would most l i k e l y d i s c o u r a g e v a n d a l i s m ; c a b i n u s e r s c o u l d be h e l d a c c o u n t a b l e through the p e r m i t system. A t t e n d a n t w i t h t h i s o p t i o n are the p e r s o n n e l c o s t s of o p e r a t i n g the r e s e r v a t i o n system. The o t h e r o p t i o n i s to d i s c o n t i n u e o p e r a t i o n of the r e s e r v a t i o n / p e r m i t system and i n s t e a d open the c a b i n s on a " f i r s t - c o m e , f i r s t - s e r v e " b a s i s . W h i l e t h i s may save p e r s o n n e l c o s t s , i t may r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n user c o n f l i c t s and v a n d a l i s m . Because i t i s cheaper to p r e v e n t v a n d a l i s m than to r e p a i r i t , we w i l l assume t h a t the o p e r a t i o n of the r e s e r v a t i o n system would be c o n t i n u e d . Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s u n dertaken f o r the c a b i n s i n the "no revenue r e c o v e r y " s c e n a r i o would be the minimum to a c h i e v e p u b l i c s a f e t y s t a n d a r d s . Maintenance would be undertaken on an i r r e g u l a r b a s i s , not on the monthly b a s i s suggested i n the PUC program p l a n . Park managers would be f o r c e d t o r e l y p r i m a r i l y on v o l u n t e e r l a b o r and s e c o n d a r i l y on youth crews. Only i n the most p r e s s i n g c i r c u m s t a n c e s would agency p e r s o n n e l be a s s i g n e d 103 t o maintenance d u t i e s , t h i s because of a g e n e r a l de-p r i o r i t i z a t i o n of program o p e r a t i o n and development r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r programs. The d e - p r i o r i t i z a t i o n s t r a t e g y f o r program development i s r e f l e c t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g e x c e r p t from a r e p o r t by the C h i e f Ranger of NLSRA: ...If such a [ f e e ] b i l l i s not f o r t h c o m i n g , the PUC program s h o u l d not be expanded a t NLSRA. There are c e r t a i n l y h i g h e r p r i o r i t i e s i n the S u s i t n a Ranger D i s t r i c t . (AK DPOR 1986c) In the p a s t y e a r s , c a b i n program managers have managed t o d i v e r t e x t r a money from o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n programs because i t seemed p r o m i s i n g t h a t the PUC program would one day g e n e r a t e i t s own revenues. P l a c e d i n the c o n t e x t of s h r i n k i n g budgets, the f o r e c l o s u r e of revenue g e n e r a t i n g o p t i o n s f o r the PUC program would f o r c e agency managers to r e - p r i o r i t i z e the program from i t s o r i g i n a l low p r i o r i t y p o s i t i o n to a "no-p r i o r i t y " p o s i t i o n . To summarize program a c t i v i t i e s under t h i s s c e n a r i o , the r e s e r v a t i o n system would c o n t i n u e t o be o p e r a t e d , maintenance s e r v i c e s would be p r o v i d e d on a m i n i m a l b a s i s , and the program would be g i v e n a l o w e r p r i o r i t y f o r the a l l o c a t i o n of f u n d i n g . 6.4.2 P o l i c y Impacts on Program O b j e c t i v e s T h i s s e c t i o n f o r e c a s t s the i m p a c t s of the p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d a c t i v i t i e s on program o b j e c t i v e s . The i n d i c a t o r s i n c l u d e the number of c a b i n u s e r s , number of c a b i n s open, 104 number of c o m p l a i n t s about the c o n d i t i o n of the c a b i n , s t a f f maintenance hours, and annual budget f o r the program. Given the s c e n a r i o of no revenue r e c o v e r y , the numbers of c a b i n u s e r s a t NLSRA i n FY 88 and 89 w o u l d most l i k e l y r e m a i n t h e same, i_f a l l PUCs p r e s e n t l y open were t o r e m a i n open i n t h a t p e r i o d . Yet, g i v e n the in a d e q u a t e c o n d i t i o n of c a b i n f o u n d a t i o n s d e s c r i b e d i n the NLSRA PUC Program Report (AK DPOR 1986), i t i s most l i k e l y t h a t t h a t l e a s t one c a b i n would be s i g n i f i c a n t l y damaged by the w i n t e r f r e e z e - t h a w c y c l e . F u r t h e r , because of budget c o n s t r a i n t s , i t i s assumed t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y damaged c a b i n would not be r e p a i r e d o r re-opened. T h e r e f o r e , t h i s s c e n a r i o f o r e c a s t s a drop i n the number of NLSRA PUC u s e r s w i t h t h e c l o s i n g o f a t l e a s t one c a b i n f o r s a f e t y reasons. The number of c a b i n s open s t a t e w i d e would a l s o d e c l i n e ; i n June o f 1986 t h e d i r e c t o r o f t h e D i v i s i o n w r o t e t h e Commissioner of the DNR t h a t : . . . l a c k i n g the means to r e c o v e r program r e c e i p t s , the D i v i s i o n w i l l be f o r c e d by f i s c a l c o n s t r a i n t s t o o p e r a t e a much s m a l l e r number of c a b i n s than e n v i s i o n e d w i t h l e g i s l a t i v e s u p p o r t . (AK DPOR, 1986b) Of the t h i r t e e n c a b i n s p r e s e n t l y being o p e r a t e d , o n l y f o u r c a b i n s are new. T h e r e f o r e , d e t e r i o r a t i o n may a l s o f o r c e t h e c l o s u r e o f one o r two o t h e r c a b i n s , w i t h a t o t a l o f t h r e e being c l o s e d s t a t e w i d e w i t h the i n c l u s i o n of the NLSRA system. C o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h i s , c a b i n use s t a t e w i d e would d e c l i n e a p p r o x i m a t e l y by one t h i r d i n FY 88 and FY 89, as a l m o s t one 105 t h i r d of the c a b i n s were c l o s e d i n t h i s p e r i o d f o r s a f e t y r e a s o n s . C o n c u r r e n t w i t h the decrease i n the number of c a b i n s open t o the p u b l i c would be the number of u s e r s of the c a b i n s . T h i s s c e n a r i o f o r e c a s t s a c o r r e l a t i o n between the decrease i n the number of c a b i n s open to the p u b l i c , and l e v e l s of p u b l i c use. Assuming t h a t o n e - t h i r d of a l l the c a b i n s are c l o s e d , the a s s u m p t i o n w i l l be made t h a t use l e v e l s would a l s o d e c r ease by o n e - t h i r d . T h i s d e c r e a s e i n t h e number o f u s e r s and number o f c a b i n s o p e r a t e d s i g n i f i e s t h a t w h i l e program o b j e c t i v e s f o r enhancing r e c r e a t i o n a l a c c e s s and t o u r i s m s u p p o r t are being met, they are being a c h i e v e d to a l e s s e r degree. A l s o , i t i n d i c a t e s a t r e n d of program c o n t r a c t i o n , as compared t o the e x p a n s i o n a r y t r e n d seen i n the f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s of program o p e r a t i o n . C o m p l a i n t s about the c o n d i t i o n of c a b i n s would i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y as the amount of s t a f f maintenance hours decrease. With the decrease i n s t a f f maintenance hours, s u b s t a n d a r d c o n d i t i o n s a re l i k e l y t o remain unattended f o r a l o n g e r p e r i o d of t i m e , r e s u l t i n g i n an i n c r e a s e d number of c o m p l a i n t s . The impact of the "no revenue r e c o v e r y " s c e n a r i o on p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s i s t h a t maintenance and s a f e t y o b j e c t i v e s would be o n l y p a r t i a l l y met i n the s h o r t term. The r e s u l t of the minimum achievement of maintenance o b j e c t i v e s i s t h a t c o n t i n u e d f a c i l i t y a t t r i t i o n would i n the 106 l o n g term " w h i t t l e down" the s i z e of the c a b i n system. T h i s i m p l i c a t i o n i s c r i t i c a l t o the assessment of program development under t h i s s c e n a r i o . C o n t i n u e d a t t r i t i o n c o u l d f o r c e t h e r e t i r e m e n t o f c a b i n s t o t h e p o i n t t h a t t h e a g e n c y would d e - p r i o r i t i z e the program t o a "non-program" s t a t u s . The s e n t i m e n t f o r the d e - p r i o r i t i z a t i o n of the program i s a l r e a d y e v i d e n t i n the D i v i s i o n . From the memo by the C h i e f Ranger of NLSRA: P r i o r t o FY 87...over $5000 has gone i n t o t h e r e f u r b i s h i n g of PUCs 1 through 4. But g i v e n the r e c e n t budget c u t s , even the c r i t i c a l f o u n d a t i o n r e p a i r s needed on the f o u r c a b i n s on Nancy Lake i s i n doubt...There are c e r t a i n l y h i g h e r p r i o r i t i e s i n the S u s i t n a Ranger D i s t r i c t f o r the use of funds. P r i o r i t i e s such as r e p l a c i n g r o t t e n [ p i c n i c ] t a b l e s and benches w i l l b e n e f i t a much l a r g e r segment of the p u b l i c than adding another c a b i n or two t o the PUC system. (AK DPOR, 1986c) Two c o n c l u s i o n s can be made a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f t h e PUC program w i t h o u t a mechanism f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . These c o n c l u s i o n s can be a p p l i e d to the t h i r d s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n ( i m p a c t s of program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e f a i l u r e ) , and be used to e v a l u a t e the second p r e m i s e of the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. F i r s t , the i m p a c t s w i l l not be i m m e d i a t e l y s i g n i f i c a n t to the program. The program has been o p e r a t e d f o r two y e a r s w i t h o u t revenue r e c o v e r y , and c o u l d be o p e r a t e d f o r a n o t h e r two y e a r s w i t h o u t program r e c e i p t s . Outcome o b j e c t i v e s and p r o c e d u r a l o b j e c t i v e s f o r the program would be m i n i m a l l y a c h i e v e d i n FY 88 and 89. However, a f t e r t h a t time i t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e i f program o b j e c t i v e s can be a c h i e v e d at a l l . 107 Secondly, c o n t i n u e d d e t e r i o r a t i o n of the f a c i l i t i e s would f o r c e agency managers to weigh the advantages of d i s c o n t i n u i n g the program. An a l t e r n a t e s t r a t e g y would be to p r i v a t i z e the program, as was o r i g i n a l l y proposed by f i e l d s t a f f . Yet, advanced d e t e r i o r a t i o n might d i s c o u r a g e p o t e n t i a l c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t o r s . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t the e a r l i e r a c o n c e s s i o n s t r a t e g y can be implemented, the more l i k e l y t h a t program development w i l l not be s i g n i f i c a n t l y s t u n t e d or f o r e c l o s e d by a t t r i t i o n . To conclude by a n s w e r i n g the t h i r d s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n , PUC program o p e r a t i o n s and development would not be s i g n i f i c a n t l y e f f e c t e d i n the s h o r t term i n the case t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s not a u t h o r i z e d . Yet, i n the mid-term f u t u r e , the i m p a c t s of f a c i l i t y d e t e r i o r a t i o n might f o r e c l o s e o t h e r revenue r e c o v e r y s t r a t e g i e s to the p o i n t of n e c e s s i t a t i n g abandonment of the program. 6.5 POLICY SCENARIO: CONTINGENCY POLICY T h i s s c e n a r i o i s based on the w a r r a n t and b a c k i n g t h a t the revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y i n c l u d e c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s on a c o n t i n g e n c y b a s i s because i t would ensure the achievement of c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s . The r e b u t t a l t o t h i s w a r r a n t i s t h a t the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y cannot succeed because of a l a c k of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e or o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y . T h i s s c e n a r i o assumes t h a t as the n o n - a u t h o r i z a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y becomes immanent, the d i r e c t o r of 108 the agency makes the d e c i s i o n t o adopt c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the program as a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . For agency s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s , t h i s would mean t h a t they would have the a p p r o v a l , i f not encouragement t o begin f o r m a t i o n of the non-p r o f i t c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i o n 5.4.1. T h i s s c e n a r i o w i l l f o c u s on program a c t i v i t i e s and i m p a c t s f o r t h e PUC s y s t e m a t NLSRA, and p r o v i d e an o v e r v i e w o f program a c t i v i t i e s and i m p a c t s s t a t e w i d e . The p r o c e s s of i n c o r p o r a t i o n would take p l a c e i n the second h a l f of FY 87 (January - June 1987), w i t h the c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s assuming program o p e r a t i o n s e a r l y i n FY 88. As i n s e c t i o n 6.3, the t i m e h o r i z o n f o r t h i s s c e n a r i o i s FY 88 and FY 89 ( J u l y 1987 - J u l y 1989). 6.5.1 P o l i c y / Program Performance B e f o r e e x p l o r i n g program a c t i v i t i e s under t h i s s c e n a r i o , the i s s u e of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y must be addressed. I am assuming t h a t a l t h o u g h the d i r e c t o r would g i v e the "go-ahead" to agency s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s t o begin development of n o n - p r o f i t c o n c e s s i o n a i r e s , i t would not be a mandatory d i r e c t i v e . I n s t e a d , each s u p e r i n t e n d e n t would be l e f t t o c o n s i d e r the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e i r management u n i t , and d e t e r m i n e whether o r not to proceed w i t h the c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . 109 Two f a c t o r s might make a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t h e s i t a n t : a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e , and the c a p a c i t y of h i s / h e r u n i t t o implement the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y . That the agency has the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e i s demonstrated i n the i n c r e a s i n g number of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s and c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s t h a t have been f a c i l i t a t e d i n 1985 and 1986. In t h a t p e r i o d , f o u r c o n t r a c t s have e i t h e r been "put out to b i d " o r " c l o s e d on" f o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the f a c i l i t i e s i n A l a s k a S t a t e H i s t o r i c P a r k s . A l s o , the agency has c o n t r a c t e d w i t h one c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n f o r the s a l e of i n t e r p r e t i v e m a t e r i a l s , and p r o v i d e d t e c h n i c a l support f o r two " F r i e n d s of S t a t e P a r k s " o r g a n i z a t i o n s . R e g i o n a l and a r e a o f f i c e s a re the p r i m a r y c o n t a c t f o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t o r s , w h i l e the c e n t r a l D i v i s i o n o f f i c e p r o v i d e s t e c h n i c a l s u p p o r t . C o n c e s s i o n s programs have been spread e v e n l y throughout r e g i o n a l and a r e a o f f i c e s and the s t a f f of each management a r e a i s f a i r l y e x p e r i e n c e d i n these arrangements. For t h i s s c e n a r i o , i t i s r e a s o n a b l e to assume t h a t t h e r e i s adequate e x p e r t i s e t o a d m i n i s t e r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n of the PUC program. Moreover, t h i s a s s u m p t i o n d i s c r e d i t s the r e b u t t a l t h a t t h e r e i s not adequate a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e x p e r t i s e t o o p e r a t e the program. The second r e b u t t a l c o ncerns the c a p a c i t y of r e g i o n a l and a r e a o f f i c e s t o f a c i l i t a t e c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s , i n l i g h t of r e g u l a r a s signments and ever p r e s e n t f i s c a l c o n s t r a i n t s . These 110 f a c t o r s suggest t h a t i n o r d e r f o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s t o be developed, agency managers would have to t e m p o r a r i l y de-p r i o r i t i z e o t h e r programs or p r o j e c t s . While t h i s s c e n a r i o assumes t h a t such t r a d e - o f f s w i l l be made, the p r e v i o u s sentence v a l i d a t e s the r e b u t t a l t h a t c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s might not be implemented because of a l a c k of o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y . T h e r e f o r e , any arguments f o r a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y must be q u a l i f i e d by r e c o g n i z i n g the c o n s t r a i n t s of o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y . Once an agency manager g i v e s a h i g h p r i o r i t y t o t h e development of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s , they would s e t about the p r o c e s s as d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i o n 5.4.1. I t i s assumed t h a t a f t e r the p r o c e s s of i n c o r p o r a t i o n , program o p e r a t i o n s would be taken over by the n o n - p r o f i t i n the f i r s t h a l f of FY 88. Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s would be d i s t i n c t l y d i f f e r e n t under c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s . The agency would p l a y a m i n i m a l r o l e i n maintenance o p e r a t i o n s , o n l y p r o v i d i n g c a b i n i n s p e c t i o n s and s u p e r v i s i o n of r e h a b i l i t a t i o n p r o j e c t s as n e c e s s a r y . Maintenance a c t i v i t i e s would be p r o v i d e d on a r e g u l a r b a s i s by the c o n c e s s i o n a i r e , w i t h an emphasis on the use of v o l u n t e e r crews. By u s i n g v o l u n t e e r crews, the n o n - p r o f i t would be a b l e to save maintenance l a b o r c o s t s and a l l o c a t e those s a v i n g s to the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of o t h e r c a b i n s . For i n s t a n c e , i n the r e p o r t from the c h i e f ranger of NLSRA, seven unused c a b i n s a re 111 recommended f o r r e h a b i l i t a t i o n and i n c l u s i o n i n t o the PUC system (AK DPOR 1986). The development of n o n - p r o f i t c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s would s i g n i f y a s h i f t by t h e agency t o make t h e p r o g r a m a h i g h p r i o r i t y w i t h o u t a l l o c a t i n g a l o t of agency r e s o u r c e s t o m a i n t a i n the program. T h i s s h i f t from the p r e s e n t low p r i o r i t y o f t h e p r o g r a m i s one o f t h e i m p a c t s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n . 6.5.2 P o l i c y Impacts on Program O b j e c t i v e s T h i s s e c t i o n measures the i m p a c t s of the p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d a c t i v i t i e s on program o b j e c t i v e s . The i n d i c a t o r s of i m p a c t s i n c l u d e the number of c a b i n u s e r s , number of c a b i n s open f o r p u b l i c use, number of c o m p l a i n t s about c a b i n c o n d i t i o n s , s t a f f maintenance hours, and funds a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n and development. I n d i c a t o r s of p o l i c y e f f e c t i v e n e s s f o r a c h i e v i n g program o b j e c t i v e s f o r enhancing r e c r e a t i o n a l a c c e s s and s u p p o r t i n g the t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y i n c l u d e the number of c a b i n s open t o the p u b l i c , and the annual number of c a b i n u s e r s . Given the s c e n a r i o of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s , the number of c a b i n s o p e r a t e d at NLSRA c o u l d p o t e n t i a l l y double by FY 89. The c a b i n s a l r e a d y open would p r o v i d e adequate revenue f o r t h e i r s t a b i l i z a t i o n , and f o r the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of o t h e r c a b i n s i n the u n i t . The agency e s t i m a t e s t h a t i n FY 87, these c a b i n s w i l l a c c r u e an i n c o m e o f $4800 ( b a s e d on o c c u p a n c y r a t e s f r o m FY 112 8 6 ) . The c o s t of s t a b i l i z i n g the f o u n d a t i o n s on PUCs 1 through 4 i s e s t i m a t e d a t $1245 f o r m a t e r i a l s and $1944 f o r l a b o r ; t o t a l l i n g $3189 (AK DPOR, 1986c). Assuming the n o n - p r o f i t c o u l d h a l v e l a b o r c o s t s w i t h v o l u n t e e r work, the r e m a i n i n g money c o u l d be a l l o c a t e d t o r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of o t h e r c a b i n s . Two c o n s t r a i n t s t o c a b i n r e h a b i l i t a t i o n are the " l a g t i m e " i n b u i l d i n g a bank account s u f f i c i e n t t o cover p r o j e c t expenses and the s e a s o n a l h a l t t o c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o j e c t s . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s assumed t h a t the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of c a b i n s w o u l d n o t be c o m p l e t e d u n t i l e a r l y i n FY 90, t o w a r d t h e end o f the c o n s t r u c t i o n season. W i t h t h e d o u b l i n g o f t h e number o f c a b i n s i n t h e NLSRA system, the t o t a l number of c a b i n u s e r s would a l s o double. T h i s assumes t h a t occupancy r a t e s would re m a i n the same ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y 30% occupancy per year) d u r i n g t h i s t i m e p e r i o d . R e l a t i v e t o t h e number o f c a b i n s open and t h e number o f c a b i n u s e r s i n o t h e r s t a t e park u n i t s , the NLSRA s c e n a r i o would be the e x c e p t i o n r a t h e r than the r u l e . The o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r program expansion a t NLSRA are e x c e p t i o n a l because the agency can p r o v i d e the c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t o r w i t h a l a r g e number of unimproved f a c i l i t i e s , r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r park u n i t s . These f a c i l i t i e s can be i m p r o v e d a t a f r a c t i o n o f t h e c o s t o f b u i l d i n g a new f a c i l i t y , t h e r e f o r e p r o v i d i n g f o r the q u i c k growth of the NLSRA system. The number of c a b i n s o p e r a t e d s t a t e w i d e , and the number of c a b i n u s e r s would i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y under the c o n c e s s i o n 113 s c e n a r i o . Most c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s would be p r i m a r i l y concerned w i t h s t a b i l i z i n g and d e v e l o p i n g c o n t i n u i t y i n o p e r a t i o n s , w h i l e s l o w l y s a v i n g revenues f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . I n d i c a t o r s of p o l i c y e f f e c t i v e n e s s f o r a c h i e v i n g maintenance and s a f e t y o b j e c t i v e s i n c l u d e the number of i n c i d e n t s of v a n d a l i s m , c o m p l a i n t s on c a b i n c o n d i t i o n , and s t a f f maintenance hours. I t i t u n c e r t a i n i f the number of user c o m p l a i n t s would re m a i n the same or f l u c t u a t e . In t h i s s c e n a r i o i t i s assumed t h a t these f i g u r e s would remain the same as i n p r e s e n t day o p e r a t i o n s . The amount of hours expended i n the maintenance of f a c i l i t i e s would show a l a r g e d e c r e a s e , a f t e r the i n i t i a l o u t p u t f o r the i n c o r p o r a t i o n of the c o o p e r a t i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s . The f i n a l i n d i c a t o r of p o l i c y e f f e c t i v e n e s s i s the amount of funds a v a i l a b l e f o r program o p e r a t i o n and development. Funding f o r the program has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been based on the d i v e r s i o n of funds from o t h e r agency a c c o u n t s . In the c o n c e s s i o n s s c e n a r i o , the program f o r the f i r s t t i m e would have a r e g u l a r i n f u s i o n of funds. At NLSRA, t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n the f i r s t year of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , more money would be a l l o c a t e d t o maintenance and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n than throughout the h i s t o r y of the program. S i m i l a r l y , o t h e r c a b i n systems throughout the s t a t e would have the b e n e f i t of r e g u l a r i n f u s i o n s of revenue r e c o v e r e d from program o p e r a t i o n s . 114 Three c o n c l u s i o n s can be drawn from t h i s s c e n a r i o . Two c o n c e r n the f u t u r e of the program under c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , and the t h i r d concerns the i m p a c t s of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n on the agency. These c o n c l u s i o n s w i l l a l s o be a p p l i e d to the f i n a l s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s f o r the t h e s i s , and the f i n a l p r e m i s e of the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. The f i r s t c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t program o b j e c t i v e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n a c c e s s , t o u r i s m i n d u s t r y s u p p o r t , p u b l i c s a f e t y , and f a c i l i t y maintenance would e a s i l y be a c h i e v e d i n the s c e n a r i o o f c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s . The s h o r t term i m p a c t s of c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n s , seen i n the numbers of c a b i n s open to the p u b l i c , and use l e v e l s , a l t h o u g h not s i g n i f i c a n t , would be p o s i t i v e . Secondly, the mid- and l o n g - t e r m f u t u r e f o r the program under t h i s s c e n a r i o i s b r i g h t . As o p e r a t i o n s are s t a b i l i z e d , c o n c e s s i o n managers c o u l d t u r n t h e i r a t t e n t i o n t o the e x p a n s i o n of c a b i n systems. F i n a l l y , the outcome of t h i s s c e n a r i o s u p p o r t s the w a r r a n t ( f r o m t h e p o l i c y d e b a t e i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h i s c h a p t e r ) t h a t the agency s h o u l d implement a m o d i f i e d p o l i c y , g i v e n the f o l l o w i n g q u a l i f i e r . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y as a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y would have n e g a t i v e s h o r t - t e r m i m p a c t s on agency o p e r a t i o n s . S t a f f t ime would have to be d i v e r t e d from o t h e r p r o j e c t s , r e s u l t i n g i n d e l a y s to the development of these p r o j e c t s . The n e g a t i v e i m p a c t s caused by these d e l a y s would be r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l compared to the p o s i t i v e i m p a c t s of d e v e l o p i n g p r i v a t e s e c t o r o p e r a t i o n of the program. 115 I n t h e l o n g r u n , t h e a g e n c y w i l l have a minimum amount o f s t a f f t i m e i n v o l v e d i n the management of the program, w h i l e p r o d u c i n g h i g h r e t u r n s i n terms of p u b l i c s e r v i c e . 6.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS In t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h i s c h a p t e r , a p o l i c y c l a i m was i n t r o d u c e d t h a t suggested an optimum p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . T h i s p o l i c y c l a i m was based on t h r e e p o l i c y w a r r a n t s , which are a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d as p r e m i s e s . Each of these w a r r a n t s were balanced w i t h a c o u n t e r v a i l i n g argument, the e f f e c t of which, i f s u b s t a n t i a t e d , would d i s c r e d i t the p o l i c y c l a i m . In the second h a l f of the c h a p t e r , t e c h n i q u e s of p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s were a p p l i e d to the second and t h i r d w a r r a n t s of the p o l i c y debate. In t h i s s e c t i o n , we w i l l a p p l y t h o s e r e s u l t s to each p o l i c y debate i n o r d e r to e v a l u a t e the c r e d i b i l i t y of the p o l i c y c l a i m . B e f o r e r e v i e w i n g the r e s u l t s of the p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s , the f i r s t debate i s s u e w i l l be addressed. T h i s i s s u e d e a l s w i t h the u n c e r t a i n t y of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of program r e c e i p t s , and was not i n c l u d e d i n the p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . The u n c e r t a i n t y i s s u e a d d r e s s e s the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t l e g i s l a t i o n n e c e s s a r y t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e the p o l i c y w i l l not be p a s s e d . S e c t i o n 5.3.1 showed t h a t the p r o c e s s of p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s to a l a r g e e x t e n t o u t s i d e of agency i n f l u e n c e 116 and t h e r e f o r e v u l n e r a b l e t o v e t o . In t h a t s e c t i o n I c o n c l u d e d t h a t the f o u r s t e p p r o c e s s of l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s the "weakest" or most v u l n e r a b l e p o i n t of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n because of the i n h e r e n t u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d . Based on t h i s r e a s o n i n g , i n t h i s c h a p t e r I c o n c l u d e d t h a t a l t h o u g h the p r o b a b i l i t y of a u t h o r i z a t i o n cannot be c o n c l u s i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d , i t i s r e a s o n a b l e to assume t h a t the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s u n c e r t a i n . T h e r e f o r e , the f i r s t w a r r a n t i s a c c e p t e d w i t h o u t q u a l i f i c a t i o n as s u p p o r t i n g the p o l i c y c l a i m . The second w a r r a n t proposes t h a t l a c k i n g a means of revenue r e c o v e r y , the program would i n c u r s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t s because c r i t i c a l program o b j e c t i v e s would not be a c h i e v e d . The w a r r a n t i n t h i s i s s u e i s based on the a s s u m p t i o n t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y would f a i l to be adopted. I n t e r e s t i n g l y , i n the p o l i c y i m p a c t a n a l y s i s i t was d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h e r e would not be s i g n i f i c a n t i m p a c t s on the program w i t h o u t a means of revenue r e c o v e r y , in the s h o r t term. Yet, i n the mid-term f u t u r e , f a c i l i t y d e t e r i o r a t i o n might f o r c e agency managers to weigh the advantages of d i s c o n t i n u i n g the progam. T h i s f o r e c a s t s u p p o r t s t h e w a r r a n t t h a t t h e l a c k o f a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y impact the PUC progam. T h i s f o r e c a s t a l s o s u g g e s t s t h a t agency managers c o n s i d e r a d o p t i n g a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y i n the case of the f a i l u r e of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y . T h i s w a r r a n t i s 117 t h e r e f o r e a c c e p t e d , w i t h the q u a l i f i c a t i o n t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t i m p a c t s would be f e l t i n the mid-term f u t u r e of the program. While the second debate w a r r a n t suggests t h a t the e x i s t i n g p o l i c y i s i n a d e q u a t e , and a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y s h o u l d be implemented, u n t i l now the i s s u e of "when" the c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y s h o u l d be implemented has been unaddressed. G i v e n t h a t the i m p a c t f o r e c a s t f o r p o l i c y f a i l u r e s uggests no s i g n i f i c a n t s h o r t term i m p a c t s , i t would seem t h a t the agency has the o p t i o n of a d o p t i n g a " w a i t and see" approach to a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . The i s s u e of when a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y i s s u e s h o u l d be implemented w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r i n f o l l o w i n g paragraphs. The t h i r d w a r r a n t a d v o c a t e s the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a m o d i f i e d p o l i c y : t h a t a c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y be adopted on a c o n t i n g e n c y b a s i s . The r e s u l t s of the impact a n a l y s i s s u p p o r t the w a r r a n t and the b a c k i n g s t a t e m e n t t h a t a c o n c e s s i o n s o p e r a t i o n c o u l d a c h i e v e c r i t i c a l progam o b j e c t i v e s , a l t h o u g h w i t h q u a l i f i c a t i o n . The q u a l i f i c a t i o n i s t h a t the agency must be p r e p a r e d to p r o v i d e adequate r e s o u r c e s t o implement a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y . G i v e n the p r e s e n t budget c o n s t r a i n t s , a committment t o c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n would be a t the c o s t o f s h o r t - t e r m d e l a y s to the development of o t h e r agency p r o j e c t s . In l i g h t of the above q u a l i f i c a t i o n , and the i s s u e of "when" t o implement a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y , i s to c l a r i f y the p o l i c y c l a i m t h a t "the agency s h o u l d implement a p o l i c y t h a t 118 combines both mechanisms of revenue recove r y . " I recommend t h a t the agency undertake t h i s a c t i o n i m m e d i a t e l y , i n s t e a d of t a k i n g a " w a i t and see" approach. P o s t p o n i n g c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n n i n g f o r program development i n v i t e s r e a c t i v e p o l i c y development, and r e a c t i v e p o l i c y development i n v i t e s the f o r e c l o s u r e of p r e v i o u s l y v i a b l e o p t i o n s f o r revenue r e c o v e r y . Where t h e r e may have been a t one t i m e the o p t i o n to implement two revenue r e c o v e r y mechanisms, i n a t i m e of f i s c a l c r i s i s , o r d e t e r i o r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , the o n l y o p t i o n a v a i l a b l e may be t o s h e l v e the program. P r o a c t i v e p o l i c y development does not n e c e s s a r i l y e n t a i l the immediate i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of c o n c e s s i o n s s t r a t e g i e s . R e a l i s t i c a l l y , such an approach may be c o n s t r a i n e d by the f i s c a l s i t u a t i o n . I t does e n t a i l a c o n s c i o u s e f f o r t of program managers to t h i n k t h r o u g h the f a i l u r e of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y , and develop a s t r a i g h t - f o r w a r d response to t h i s s c e n a r i o . T h i s e f f o r t c o u l d produce a wide a r r a y of c o n t i n g e n c y o p t i o n s t h a t c o u l d be q u i c k l y o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d i n the case of p o l i c y f a i l u r e . P r o a c t i v e p o l i c y development above a l l e n t a i l s a committment by the agency, but not n e c e s s a r i l y to the c o n t i n u a t i o n of a program at a l l c o s t s . With p r o a c t i v e p o l i c y development, agency managers would commit to broadening the number of p o l i c y o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e to a g i v e n program. In summary, I recommend a p r o a c t i v e approach t o p o l i c y development, meaning the a d o p t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n p o l i c y f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n on a c o n t i n g e n c y b a s i s . A combined p o l i c y would be the most e f f e c t i v e means of e n s u r i n g the c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n 119 and development of the PUC program. With a c o n t i n g e n c y o p t i o n f o r revenue r e c o v e r y , the v u l n e r a b i l i t y of the program t o a f a i l e d program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e would be reduced, and the r e c o v e r y of revenue f o r o p e r a t i o n s and development would be e n s u r e d . Such c e r t a i n t y i s n e c e s s a r y i f the program i s to c o n t i n u e to s u r v i v e and have the o p p o r t u n i t y to f l o u r i s h . 120 CHAPTER 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 7.1 INTRODUCTION T h i s study has f o c u s e d on the e v a l u a t i o n of two p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d t o overcome program development c o n s t r a i n t s f o r the A l a s k a p u b l i c use c a b i n program. T h i s c h a p t e r d i s c u s s e s the r e s u l t s o f the a n a l y s i s , and draws c o n c l u s i o n s from t h e s e f i n d i n g s . T h i s c h a p t e r has t h r e e major s e c t i o n s . S e c t i o n 7.2 f o c u s e s on the m e t h o d o l o g i c a l r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s . I t i n c l u d e s a d i s c u s s i o n of the t e c h n i q u e s r e v i e w e d , and s u g g e s t i o n s f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n of a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s i n s i m i l a r c ases. S e c t i o n 7.3 summarizes the r e s u l t s of the t e c h n i q u e s used t o answer the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s of t h i s study. These q u e s t i o n s concern a d e s c r i p t i o n of the o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y . From these d e s c r i p t i o n s , which i n c l u d e the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each p o l i c y , and the as s u m p t i o n s of p o l i c y makers, the s t r u c t u r e of the p o l i c y problem i s d e f i n e d . 121 The a n a l y s i s of the t h r e e p o l i c y i s s u e s b a s i c to the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of an optimum revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y are d i s c u s s e d i n S e c t i o n 7.4. The r e s u l t s of a p o l i c y i m p a ct a n a l y s i s f o r the s c e n a r i o s of a p o l i c y f a i l u r e , and the s c e n a r i o of a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y , a r e r e v i e w e d . Based on the s e r e s u l t s , recommendations are made f o r an optimum s t r a t e g y of r e c o v e r i n g program revenues. F i n a l l y , the q u e s t i o n s t h a t a re r a i s e d by the r e s u l t s of t h i s s tudy are d i s c u s s e d , w i t h s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h being made. 7.2 METHODOLOGICAL CONCLUSIONS The development of a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r t h i s s t u d y are based on the problem s t a t e m e n t and s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the case a t hand. The problem statement c o n c e r n s the two p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d t o r e c o v e r program revenues and thus overcome development c o n s t r a i n t s : Which revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y , program r e c e i p t s o r c o n c e s s i o n o p e r a t i o n , i s the most e f f e c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r e n s u r i n g the c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n and f u t u r e development of the PUC program? The i s s u e of whi c h revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y to implement f o r the PUC program has been a l o n g s t a n d i n g one w i t h i n the DPOR. Yet today the c o m b i n a t i o n of s h r i n k i n g budgets and a gr o w i n g number of s t a t u t o r i a l c o n s t r a i n t s make any p o l i c y d e c i s i o n i n c r e a s i n g l y c r i t i c a l t o the s u r v i v a l of the program. The d i r e c t o r of the D i v i s i o n has d e c i d e d to unde r t a k e the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a program r e c e i p t s s t r a t e g y , a t the e x c l u s i o n 122 of the c o n c e s s i o n a i r e a l t e r n a t i v e . W i l l t h i s p o l i c y a d e q u a t e l y address the development c o n s t r a i n t s ? What would happen i f the s t r a t e g y f a i l e d ? Would the program be put a t r i s k ? Almost c o n c u r r e n t l y , D i v i s i o n f i e l d s t a f f proposed t o implement a c o n c e s s i o n s s t r a t e g y f o r one system of c a b i n s . What would be the i m p a c t s of such a move on program development and agency o p e r a t i o n s ? Would t h i s s t r a t e g y a d e q u a t e l y address program development c o n s t r a i n t s ? Because these q u e s t i o n s have never been f o r m a l l y a d d r e s s e d by the D i v i s i o n , the a u t h o r has undertaken a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of the two p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . F i v e s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s were d e f i n e d t o s u p p o r t and complement the o r i g i n a l problem s t a t e m e n t : (1) What are the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , and the causes of these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ? (2) I f implemented s e p e r a t e l y , a t what p o i n t i s each p o l i c y most v u l n e r a b l e to f a i l u r e ? (3) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on p r o g r a m o p e r a t i o n s i f a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was not s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented? (4) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e PUC p r o g r a m f r o m t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? (5) What w o u l d be t h e i m p a c t s on t h e agency f r o m t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? The f i r s t s t e p i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e a p p r o a c h t o t h e was the d e f i n i t i o n of o b j e c t i v e s f o r the a n a l y s i s . 123 7.2.1 A p p r o a c h S i x o b j e c t i v e s formed, the f o u n d a t i o n f o r the development of an a n a l y s i s framework f o r t h i s case study. F i r s t and of o v e r a l l i m p o r t a n c e was t o make a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , o r , t h a t i s , t o d e t e r m i n e what the best c o u r s e of a c t i o n i s . The second o b j e c t i v e , to e v a l u a t e a range of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h i s case and f u t u r e c a s e s , i s f o r the b e n e f i t of the a u t h o r and i n t e r e s t e d r e a d e r s . T h i s o b j e c t i v e expands the f u n c t i o n of t h i s a n a l y s i s beyond a problem s o l v i n g e x e r c i s e to a framework w i t h p o t e n t i a l f o r f u t u r e use. The r e m a i n i n g f o u r o b j e c t i v e s , w h i l e aimed at the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s , p r o v i d e the c r i t e r i a by which the methods of p o l i c y a n a l y s i s were r e v i e w e d and chosen. They are: (3) to d e s c r i b e the o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y , i n c l u d i n g the p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y to p o l i c y f a i l u r e ; (4) to i n c o r p o r a t e the d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers i n the development of the p o l i c y a n a l y s i s s t r u c t u r e ; (5) to d e velop s c e n a r i o s of program o p e r a t i o n s under the a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s ; (6) to a s s e s s the i m p a c t s of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s on program o p e r a t i o n s and development. Based on these o b j e c t i v e s , a p p r o p r i a t e a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s were i d e n t i f i e d and a p p l i e d to t h i s case study. 124 7.2.2 Problem S t r u c t u r i n g Techniques Reviewed The f i r s t group of t e c h n i q u e s r e v i e w e d were aimed a t a n s w e r i n g the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s . F o l l o w i n g the w ords o f t h e s e c o n d and t h i r d o b j e c t i v e s , t h e a i m was t o d e s c r i b e the o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of each p o l i c y , and i n c o r p o r a t e the p r e m i s e s of the s i g n i f i c a n t p o l i c y makers i n t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n . The t e c h n i q u e s chosen to t h i s end r e f e r r e d t o as problem s t r u c t u r i n g methods. These t e c h n i q u e s p a r a l l e l the aim of t h i s a n a l y s i s ( i . e . , t o d e s c r i b e the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p o l i c y ) i n t h a t t h e y a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e p r o p e r d e f i n i t i o n o f a problem b e f o r e the a n a l y s i s t a k e s p l a c e . Under the g e n e r a l heading of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , f o u r t e c h n i q u e s were r e v i e w e d . Again i t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t a l t h o u g h these t e c h n i q u e s a r e l a b e l l e d as an " a n a l y s i s " , they are done so i n the sense of a d e s c r i p t i v e a n a l y s i s , r a t h e r than an e v a l u a t i v e a n a l y s i s . The f o u r methods r e v i e w e d can be c l a s s i f i e d i n groups t h a t aggregate ( i . e . , l o g i c a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , p o l i c y t y p o l o g i e s ) and those t h a t d i v i d e ( i . e . , l o g i c a l d i v i s i o n , h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s ) . U l t i m a t e l y , the a g g r e g a t i v e t e c h n i q u e s were r e j e c t e d , and l o g i c a l d i v i s i o n and h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s combined. With the c o m b i n a t i o n , i t was p o s s i b l e t o both d e s c r i b e p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y , and d e s c r i b e the amount of i n f l u e n c e p o l i c y makers have on these f a c t o r s . 125 A l t h o u g h the a p p l i c a t i o n of these methods are s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d , i n t h i s case the t e n d e n c i e s of the d e s c r i p t i o n s was to take on the c o m p l e x i t i e s of the case study. S t i l l , the use of the combined v e r s i o n of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and h i e r a r c h y a n a l y s i s a l l o w s the a n a l y s t to make an o b j e c t i v e d e s c r i p t i o n of c a u s a l f a c t o r s b e f o r e i n i t i a t i n g the e v a l u a t i o n phase of an a n a l y s i s . T h e r e f o r e , f o r the purpose of d e s c r i b i n g p o l i c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , the methods of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s have been adequate. S i m i l a r l y , a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s proved to be adequate f o r c h e c k i n g the f i n d i n g s of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s by way of e x a m i n i n g the p r e m i s e s of the p o l i c y p l a y e r s . Moreover, i t r a i s e d q u e s t i o n s t h a t c o u l d not be answered w i t h i n the l i m i t s of t h i s a n a l y s i s ( i . e . , the r e l a t i o n s h i p of p o l i c y maker recommendations to o r g a n i z a t i o n a l p o s i t i o n ) . I t seems t h a t t h e use o f t h i s method s h o u l d l a r g e l y be d e t e r m i n e d by the needs of the a n a l y s t . In cases s i m i l a r t o t h i s one, a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s may be an e x t r a l u x u r y not t o t a l l y n e c e s s a r y . Yet i n a complex a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s e t t i n g , such an a n a l y s i s may be n e c e s s a r y to i d e n t i f y and l a t e r c l a s s i f y the p r e m i s e s of the i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y p l a y e r s . 7.2.3 P o l i c y A n a l y s i s Techniques Reviewed S i n c e the p r e m i s e s of the p o l i c y makers i n t h i s case r e f l e c t the pros and cons of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , t h e i r p o s i t i o n s were a r t i c u l a t e d i n t o s c e n a r i o s of p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n s . 126 T h i s was a c h i e v e d u s i n g the i n t e r m e d i a t e s t e p of the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate. The t e c h n i q u e of a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate was chosen over t h r e e o t h e r t e c h n i q u e s f o r i t s a b i l i t y to i n c o r p o r a t e the d i v e r g e n t p r e m i s e s of p o l i c y makers, f a c i l i t a t e s c e n a r i o b u i l d i n g , and p r o v i d e f o r a n o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . While each of the t h r e e e r e j e c t e d t e c h n i q u e s r e q u i r e d m o d i f i c a t i o n o r a complementary t e c h n i q u e , a s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate c o u l d be use " r i g h t o f f the s h e l f . " The t h r e e p o l i c y i s s u e s c r i t i c a l t o the o v e r a l l problem were framed as b r i e f s t a t e m e n t s of s c e n a r i o s e i t h e r s u p p o r t i n g or r e f u t i n g the c o n c l u s i o n to the debate. These s c e n a r i o s were then expanded f o r e v a l u a t i o n by way of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . Cook and S c i o l i ' s model of p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s was a l s o taken " r i g h t o f f the s h e l f " , and e a s i l y adapted t o the needs of t h i s a n a l y s i s . Program o b j e c t i v e s were borrowed from DPOR p o l i c y , and performance measurement c r i t e r i a from v i s i t o r count t e c h n i q u e s and management a c c o u n t i n g t e c h n i q u e s . The r e s u l t s of the impact a n a l y s i s were then used t o s u b s t a n t i a t e or d i s c r e d i t each argument. F o l l o w i n g t h i s , the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the i m p a c t s of the d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s were a d d r e s s e d . 127 7.2.4 F u r t h e r A p p l i c a t i o n A l t h o u g h a s e e m i n g l y complex s e t of procedures f o r the r e s o l u t i o n of p o l i c y i s s u e s , I suggest t h a t the methods seen h e r e i n c o u l d be s t r e a m l i n e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and academic s e t t i n g s . The a p p l i c a t i o n s suggested are t w o f o l d : f i r s t , f o r the purpose of p o l i c y problem s o l v i n g , and second, f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y d i r e c t i v e s . The caveat s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the t e c h n i q u e s seen i n t h i s case study are not u n i v e r s a l l y a p p l i c a b l e to the wide range of p o l i c y problems c o n f r o n t i n g a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and academics. These t e c h n i q u e s are best a p p l i e d to the i s s u e s o f p o l i c y c h o i c e t h a t are unique c i r c u m s t a n c e s , and have q u a l i t a t i v e outcomes d i f f i c u l t t o measure i n q u a l i t a t i v e terms. In the p r o f e s s i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e of t h i s a u t h o r , p o l i c y d e c i s i o n documents have the p o t e n t i a l to l e a v e major a s s u m p t i o n s or p r e m i s e s u n d e f i n e d . A l t h o u g h the format of these d e c i s i o n making documents i s o f t e n c o d i f i e d i n t o a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p o l i c y , whether or not the format c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y p o r t r a y s the l o g i c and assumptions behind the r e a s o n i n g depends on the w r i t e r . The methods a p p l i e d to t h i s case s t u d y are u s e f u l , I suggest, i n the c r i t i c a l e v a l u a t i o n of p o l i c y making documents. E i t h e r an a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s or s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate c o u l d be a p p l i e d f o r the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of u n w r i t t e n a s s u m p t i o n s or p r e m i s e s . S t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate t e c h n i q u e s seem t o p r o v i d e a v a l u a b l e t o o l t o c h e c k t h e l o g i c o f a p o l i c y 128 argument. Once the s u b - i s s u e s of the major p o l i c y problem a re d e f i n e d , they can be f u r t h e r a n a l y z e d . For example, i n t h i s case s t u d y the method of t e s t i n g the s u b - i s s u e s was th r o u g h the p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s . As mentioned, t h e s e methods c o u l d be s t r e a m l i n e d and used behind the scenes by the p o l i c y a n a l y s t . One of the re a s o n s f o r t h e s i z e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h a t t h e f r a m e w o r k had t o be f i r s t d eveloped, then c a r r i e d out. In p r o f e s s i o n a l s i t u a t i o n s , the m a j o r i t y of the framework would be unseen, being brought t o l i g h t o n l y as n e c e s s a r y f o r e x p l a n a t i o n . 7.3 POLICY CHARACTERISTICS The r e s u l t s summarized i n t h i s s e c t i o n a re i n answer t o the f i r s t two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s f o r t h i s t h e s i s ( the f i n a l s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s are answered i n s e c t i o n 7.4). Those q u e s t i o n s a r e : (1) What are the s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses of each p o l i c y , and the causes of these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ? (2) I f each p o l i c y were implemented s e p e r a t e l y , at what p o i n t i s each most v u l n e r a b l e to f a i l u r e ? For t h i s a n a l y s i s , the s t r e n g t h of a p o l i c y i s g i v e n t o mean the c e r t a i n t y w i t h w h i c h i t can be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented. The w e a k n e s s o f a p o l i c y i s g i v e n t o mean t h a t t h e r e a re s i g n i f i c a n t l e v e l s of u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the s u c c e s s f u l outcome of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . Areas o r phases o f u n c e r t a i n t y are a l s o r e f e r r e d to as p o i n t s of v u l n e r a b i l i t y . 129 The methods of c l a s s f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s and a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s were used to a r r i v e a t t h e s e r e s u l t s . From t h e s e r e s u l t s , the p r i m a r y i s s u e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e the p o l i c y problem are d e f i n e d . 7.3.1 Program R e c e i p t s P o l i c y R e c a l l i n g the a n a l y s i s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n phases f o r program r e c e i p t s , i t was shown t h a t : (1) agency i n v o l v e m e n t and i n f l u e n c e i s low to n e g l i g i b l e d u r i n g phases of p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n , and h i g h t h r o u g h phases of p o l i c y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n ; (2) t h e r e i s a h i g h degree o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t the o p e r a t i o n a l phases of the p o l i c y w i l l be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented; (3) the outcome of the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase i s the most u n c e r t a i n stage of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . In answer to the f i r s t s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n , the above c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s suggest t h a t the s t r e n g t h of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s i n the h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t outcome o b j e c t i v e s w i l l be a c h i e v e d i n o p e r a t i o n a l phases. A p r i m a r y c a u s a l f a c t o r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s i s the h i g h l e v e l of agency i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h i s phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The m a j o r w e a k n e s s o f t h e p o l i c y i s t h e h i g h d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d w i t h i t s a u t h o r i z a t i o n . Again, an i m p o r t a n t c a u s a l f a c t o r i s the low l e v e l of agency i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h i s phase of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . 130 In answer to the second s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n , the p r i m a r y p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y f o r program r e c e i p t s i s the u n c e r t a i n t y of outcome i n the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n phase. 7.3.2 C o n c e s s i o n s P o l i c y The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s of the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y showed t h a t : (1) t h e r e i s a medium amount of agency i n f l u e n c e throughout a l l s t a g e s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ; (2) t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s can u l t i m a t e l y be a c h i e v e d , stemming from the agency's a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l f o r c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s through the c o n c e s s i o n c o n t r a c t ; (3) t h e r e i s a degree of u n c e r t a i n t y as to when p o l i c y outcome o b j e c t i v e s might be a c h i e v e d , stemming from the l a c k of agency i n f l u e n c e over s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . T h i s suggest the s t r e n g t h of the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y i s the h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y t h a t the p o l i c y can be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented. The c h i e f weakness of the p o l i c y i s t h a t i t s ' i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s v u l n e r a b l e to d e l a y from s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s o v er which the agency has l i t t l e o r no c o n t r o l . T h i s s u g gests the p r i m a r y p o i n t of v u l n e r a b i l i t y i s the o p e r a t i o n a l stage of p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . For both p o l i c i e s , i t seems t h a t the l e v e l of agency i n f l u e n c e over c o n t r i b u t i n g p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s c o r r e l a t e s t o the c e r t a i n t y t h a t a phase can be a c h i e v e d . When t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of agency i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of c e r t a i n t y o f outcome. When t h e r e i s a l e s s e r o r l o w d e g r e e o f a g e n c y 131 i n f l u e n c e , t h e r e i s a l e s s e r or low degree of c e r t a i n t y o f p o l i c y outcome. I suggest t h a t the c o r r e l a t i o n between agency i n f l u e n c e and s u c c e s s o f outcome c a n n o t be t a k e n as a u n i v e r s a l c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n i n the f i e l d of p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . In t h i s case i t seems t h a t the c o m b i n a t i o n of h i g h l y q u a l i f i e d and d e d i c a t e d s t a f f have the a b i l i t y to s u c c e s s f u l l y implement those p r o j e c t s over w h i c h they have a h i g h degree of c o n t r o l . In t h e w i d e r f i e l d o f p o l i c y a n a l y s i s , t h i s m i g h t p r o v e t o be the e x c e p t i o n , r a t h e r than the r u l e . T h i s c o r r e l a t i o n does r a i s e a number of q u e s t i o n s . I s agency i n v o l v e m e n t the p r i m a r y c a u s a l f a c t o r ? Or i s i t the type of p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s the agency i s a t t e m p t i n g t o a c h i e v e ? Perhaps the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s f o r t h i s program are r e l a t i v e l y e a s i e r to a c h i e v e than those f o r a s o c i a l s e r v i c e s agency f o r i n s t a n c e ? What i f t h e s t a f f f o r t h e DPOR was n o t h i g h l y q u a l i f i e d o r d e d i c a t e d ? Would the c e r t a i n t y of outcome de c r e a s e ? These q u e s t i o n s suggest the need to d e f i n e the r e l a t i o n s h i p between program o b j e c t i v e s , l e v e l s of agency i n v o l v e m e n t , s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , and s t a f f q u a l i f i c a t i o n s f o r a number of d i f f e r e n t p u b l i c s e r v i c e a g e n c i e s . Such an a n a l y s i s might g i v e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s i n f o r m a t i o n on how they m i g h t r e s p o n d t o c o n s t r a i n t s i n any one o f t h e above c a t e g o r i e s . 132 7.3.3 S t a k e h o l d e r s A s s u m p t i o n s The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s of the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s has shown t h a t t h e l a c k o f a g e ncy c o n t r o l i s an i m p o r t a n t i s s u e to the r e s o l u t i o n of the optimum p o l i c y c h o i c e . F o l l o w i n g t h i s , i t would seem t h a t the b e h a v i o r , p r e m i s e s and a s s u m p t i o n s of a g e n c y " s t a k e h o l d e r s c r i t i c a l to t h i s p o l i c y d e c i s i o n would c o r r o b o r a t e t h i s i s s u e . To t h i s end, an a s s u m p t i o n a l a n a l y s i s of the p e r s p e c t i v e s of the D i v i s i o n d i r e c t o r and a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t was undertaken. For the agency d i r e c t o r , the problem of revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the PUC program (among o t h e r economic programs) i s p r i m a r i l y s t a t u t o r i a l . T h e r e f o r e , h i s s o l u t i o n to the p r oblem i s l e g i s l a t i v e , hence h i s support f o r the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y ( w h i c h r e q u i r e s l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n ) . T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h h i s p h i l o s o p h y t o i n i t i a t e D i v i s i o n economic programs in-house i n o r d e r to ensure agency c o n t r o l over the outcome. My i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h i s management p h i l o s o p h y i s t h a t k e e p i n g the o p e r a t i o n of a new program in-house r e f l e c t s an a t t e m p t t o compensate f o r u n c e r t a i n t y , and encourage a c c o u n t a b i l i t y w i t h i n the agency. For the a r e a s u p e r i n t e n d e n t , the problem of revenue r e c o v e r y f o r the PUC program i s i n day-to-day o p e r a t i o n s . Revenue r e c o v e r y i s c r i t i c a l t o the ongoing o p e r a t i o n of the program, t h e r e f o r e i t i s c r i t i c a l t o r e t a i n as many o p t i o n s as p o s s i b l e to a c h i e v e t h i s g o a l . The s u p e r i n t e n d e n t shows t h a t he 133 v a l u e s c e r t a i n t y of outcome by being p r e p a r e d to implement w h i c h e v e r p o l i c y w i l l g e t t h e j o b done f o r him. Both s t a k e h o l d e r s p l a c e v a l u e i n a h i g h degree o f c e r t a i n t y of outcome. T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t an optimum p o l i c y would i n c r e a s e the c e r t a i n t y t h a t revenue w i l l be r e c o v e r e d f o r the PUC program i n the near f u t u r e . 7.4 ANALYTICAL CONCLUSIONS The c o n c l u s i o n of the s t r u c t u r e d p o l i c y debate recommends t h a t the DPOR implement a p o l i c y c o m b i n i n g the program r e c e i p t s s t r a t e g y and c o n c e s s i o n a i r e s t r a t e g y as the o v e r a l l revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y . T h i s recommendation and the p r e m i s e s s u p p o r t i n g were t e s t e d u s i n g p o l i c y impact a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s . The r e s u l t s of these a n a l y s e s were then a p p l i e d to the s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s and problem s t a t e m e n t f o r t h i s case study. The c o n c l u s i o n s f o r each of the p r e m i s e s , and the p o l i c y s t a t e m e n t , are d i s c u s s e d below. 7.4.1 U n c e r t a i n t y of A u t h o r i z a t i o n The f i r s t p o l i c y i s s u e a d d r e s s e s the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y w i l l be a u t h o r i z e d by the l e g i s l a t u r e . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i n s e c t i o n 5.3.1 showed t h a t the p r o c e s s of p o l i c y a u t h o r i z a t i o n i s to a l a r g e e x t e n t o u t s i d e o f agency i n f l u e n c e and t h e r e f o r e v u l n e r a b l e t o vet o . W h i l e the p r o b a b i l i t y of a u t h o r i z a t i o n cannot be c o n c l u s i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d , based on the i n h e r e n t u n c e r t a i n t y of the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i z a t i o n p r o c e s s , I have c o n c l u d e d t h a t 134 the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the program r e c e i p t s p o l i c y i s u n c e r t a i n . T h e r e f o r e , t h i s c o n c l u s i o n i s a c c e p t e d as a p r e m i s e s u p p o r t i n g the p o l i c y debate recommendation t h a t a combined p o l i c y be implemented. 7.4.2 P o l i c y F a i l u r e Impacts Two c o n c l u s i o n s were made about the f u t u r e of the PUC program w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue r e c o v e r y . These c o n c l u s i o n s are a p p l i e d t o the t h i r d s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n f o r t h i s case study, which a s k s : What would be the i m p a c t s on program o p e r a t i o n s i f a revenue r e c o v e r y p o l i c y was not s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented? F i r s t , the i m p a c t s of t h i s s c e n a r i o would not be i m m e d i a t e l y s i g n i f i c a n t t o the o p e r a t i o n and development of the program. The PUC program has been s l o w l y developed f o r the p a s t t h r e e y e a r s w i t h o u t a mechanism of revenue r e c o v e r y . T h e r e f o r e , the program c o u l d be a l l o w e d to o p e r a t e f o r a t l e a s t two more y e a r s w i t h a minimum amount of maintenance t i m e and money a l l o c a t e d to the program. The second c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t a f t e r two y e a r s of minimum maintenance, f a c i l i t y d e t e r i o r a t i o n would r e q u i r e e i t h e r major e x p e n d i t u r e s , l e a s i n g f o r c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n , or the abandonment of the program. Advanced d e t e r i o r a t i o n m ight d i s c o u r a g e c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n of the f a c i l i t y . In c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h budgetary c o n s t r a i n t s , these c i r c u m s t a n c e s might f o r c e program managers t o abandon the program. 135 F i n a l l y , the debate p r e m i s e t h a t "the l a c k of a revenue r e c o v e r y mechanism w i l l have s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t s " i s a c c e p t e d w i t h the q u a l i f i c a t i o n t h a t t h e s e i m p a c t s , a l t h o u g h not f e l t i m m e d i a t e l y , would r e q u i r e an agency response w i t h i n two y e a r s . 7.4.3 Contingency P o l i c y Impacts The f i n a l p o l i c y debate i s s u e a d d r e s s e s the i m p a c t s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y . The c o n c l u s i o n to the a n a l y s i s of t h i s p r e m i s e i s used t o answer the f i n a l two s u b s i d i a r y q u e s t i o n s f o r t h i s case study. They a r e : What would be the i m p a c t s on the PUC program from the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? What would be the i m p a c t s on the agency from the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n c e s s i o n s p o l i c y ? In answer t o the f i r s t q u e s t i o n , i t was de t e r m i n e d t h a t c o n c e s s i o n a i r e management would e a s i l y a c h i e v e program o p e r a t i o n o b j e c t i v e s . F u r t h e r , the i m p a c t s on program development o b j e c t i v e s would be p o s i t i v e . In the mid- and l o n g -term f u t u r e , the program would have the o p p o r t u n i t y to expand, as program r e c e i p t s c o u l d be put i n t o f a c i l i t y development. In answer to the second q u e s t i o n , the s h o r t - t e r m i m p a c t s of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h i s p o l i c y on the D i v i s i o n would be to r e q u i r e s m a l l d i v e r s i o n s of s t a f f t i m e from o t h e r p r o j e c t s . In the l o n g - t e r m , each system of c a b i n s o p e r a t e d by a 136 c o n c e s s i o n a i r e would r e l i e v e the agency of an o t h e r w i s e s u b s t a n t i a l management r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . In c o n c l u s i o n , the p o l i c y debate p r e m i s e f o r the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a c o n t i n g e n c y p o l i c y i s accept e d w i t h the q u a l i f i c a t i o n t h a t the D i v i s i o n must be w i l l i n g t o absorb the s h o r t - t e r m s t a f f t i m e i m p a c t s of s e t t i n g c o n c e s s i o n a i r e o p e r a t i o n s . 7.4.4 Recommended P o l i c y S t r a t e g y In t h i s case s t u d y I have d e t e r m i n e d t h a t : the p r e s e n t agency p o l i c y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y i s v u l n e r a b l e to v e t o i n the l e g i s l a t i v e p r o c e s s , s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i e i m p a c t s on program development would r e s u l t from c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n s w i t h o u t a means of revenue r e c o v e r y , and t h a t a c o n c e s s i o n s s t r a t e g y f o r revenue r e c o v e r y would p r o v i d e a v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o program r e c e i p t s . In a n s w e r t o t h e p r o b l e m s t a t e m e n t f o r t h i s c a s e s t u d y , I have recommended t h a t t o h e l p ensure c o n t i n u e d program o p e r a t i o n s and development, the D i v i s i o n implement a p o l i c y t h a t combines both s t r a t e g i e s of revenue r e c o v e r y . T h i s recommendation does not advocate the immediate s t a r t up o f the c o n c e s s i o n s development p r o c e s s . T h i s recommendation does advocate t h a t a c o n t i n g e n c y s t r a t e g y be developed f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i n the case t h a t the program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e i s v e t o e d . 137 Moreover, I advocate an agency committment to the program w i t h the development of f o r w a r d t h i n k i n g program development measures. D i v i s i o n managers s h o u l d r e a l i z e t h a t i f the program r e c e i p t s i n i t i a t i v e f a i l s , they w i l l be c o n f r o n t e d w i t h the same s t a t u t o r y c o n s t r a i n t s f o r program development. In response to these c o n s t r a i n t s , program managers w i l l have the c h o i c e of a l l o w i n g the program to l a n g u i s h and g r a d u a l l y d e t e r i o r a t e , o r i n c u r s h o r t t e r m agency c o s t s f o r t h e l o n g t e r m b e n e f i t o f t h e program. I recommend t h a t t h i s c h o i c e be c o n s i d e r e d as soon as p o s s i b l e , i n o r d e r to b e n e f i t from the o p t i o n s s t i l l a v a i l a b l e to the program. 138 BIBLIOGRAPHY A l a s k a D i v i s i o n o f P a r k s . A l a s k a Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n P l a n . Anchorage, A l a s k a , 1981. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Parks and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . P u b l i c Use  Cabin Program Management P l a n . Anchorage, A l a s k a , 1985. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of P a r k s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . "Concession C o n t r a c t i n g P r o c e s s Overview: D r a f t . " Anchorage, A l a s k a , 1986a. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . Johannsen, N e i l C. "Memorandum on FY 1987 PUC Program", Anchorage, A l a s k a , June, 1986b. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . "Nancy Lake S t a t e R e c r e a t i o n Area P u b l i c Use Cabi n Program Report." Anchorage, A l a s k a , J u l y , 1986c. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . " P u b l i c Use Cabin P o l i c y : D r a f t . " Anchorage, A l a s k a , J u l y 1986d. A l a s k a D i v i s i o n of Park s and Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . Johannsen, N e i l C. "Memorandum on Park Fees." Anchorage, A l a s k a , August 20, 1986e. 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