UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Targeted job creation : one federal response to long term unemployment Harper, Mary Jane 1987

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1987_A5 H37_6.pdf [ 8.58MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0096837.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0096837-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0096837-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0096837-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0096837-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0096837-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0096837-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0096837-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0096837.ris

Full Text

Targeted Job Creation: One Federal Response to Long Term Unemployment by MARY JANE HARPER B.A. Mount A l l i s o n University, 1971 B.S.W. The University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1983 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SOCIAL WORK in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (School of Social Work) We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA August 1987 (§) Mary Jane Harper, 1987 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. The University of British Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 DE-6(3/81) Targeted Job C r e a t i o n : One F e d e r a l Response t o Long Term Unemployment ABSTRACT Si n c e 1985, the d i r e c t j o b c r e a t i o n e f f o r t s of the f e d e r a l government have been t a r g e t e d on the l o n g term unemployed, under the Job Development Program, i n response t o the i n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e of long term unemployment s i n c e the r e c e s s i o n . T h i s r e s e a r c h was i n i t i a t e d t o p r o v i d e e a r l y feedback on a program of i n d i v i d u a l l y s u b s i d i z e d j o b s , as a demand-side employment i n i t i a t i v e t a r g e t e d on i n d i v i d u a l s who had been unemployed f o r approximately s i x months. The r e s e a r c h was a d e s c r i p t i v e a n a l y s i s of the exper i e n c e of 64 program p a r t i c i p a n t s , i n an area of Vancouver w i t h a h i g h e t h n i c p o p u l a t i o n where t h e r e i s t r a d i t i o n a l l y h i g h unemployment. An experimental, u n c o n t r o l l e d , s i n g l e group d e s i g n was used t o compare c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as program i n p u t , as w e l l as program i n t e r v e n t i o n , agency a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s , t o program outcomes. The v a r i a b l e t h a t demonstrated the s t r o n g e s t a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h outcome was the r e l a t i v e demand f o r l a b o u r i n the l o c a l l a b o u r market i n which the job had been s u b s i d i z e d . There was a l s o evidence from the r e s e a r c h t h a t f a c t o r s w i t h i n the s u b s i d i z e d j o b s e t t i n g may i n f l u e n c e the s u c c e s s f u l r e - a d a p t a t i o n of l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s i n t o the work f o r c e . The o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c a r e e r advancement as w e l l as s u p e r v i s i o n on-the-job t h a t i s s u p p o r t i v e of the i n d i v i d u a l who - i i -i s r e - a d a p t i n g t o a work environment, was each p o s i t i v e l y -c o r r e l a t e d w i t h program outcome. While the r e s u l t s were i n c o n c l u s i v e f o r some of the c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s measured i n the study, o t h e r s were c l e a r l y found t o be poor p r e d i c t o r s o f program success. T a rgeted j o b c r e a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s l i k e the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program, respond not o n l y t o c y c l i c a l unemployment but address i s s u e s o f s t r u c t u r a l unemployment through the t a r g e t i n g o f these employment i n i t i a t i v e s on employment disadvantaged groups. Although o n l y t e n t a t i v e judgements can be drawn from the r e s e a r c h , i t suggests t h a t program a d m i n i s t r a t i o n which i s s e n s i t i v e t o l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s , as w e l l as t o c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n the j o b s i t e i t s e l f , may improve the outcome o f p u b l i c employment i n i t i a t i v e s . - i i i -TABLE OF CONTENTS page T i t l e Page . i A b s t r a c t i i Ta b l e o f Contents i v L i s t o f T a b l e s v i i L i s t o f F i g u r e s i x A b b r e v i a t i o n s Used i n Text x Acknowledgement x i Chapter I: BACKGROUND AND PROBLEM AREA I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 Economic Context o f Long Term Unemployment 2 D e f i n i t i o n of Long Term Unemployment 2 Inc i d e n c e o f Long Term Unemployment 3 Overview o f Unemployment S t a t i s t i c s 6 Causes of Long Term Unemployment 10 Consequences o f Long Term Unemployment 23 Impact of Long Term Unemployment 23 D i s t r i b u t i o n Among P o p u l a t i o n Groups 25 Economic and S o c i a l Impact 28 Unemployment as a S o c i a l Issue 29 The Meaning of Work 30 S o c i a l Welfare L e g i s l a t i o n 32 Chapter I I : THE RESPONSE F e d e r a l Responses t o Unemployment 39 H i s t o r y o f Job C r e a t i o n 40 Cu r r e n t Employment I n i t i a t i v e s 41 The I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job Program 42 Impact o f M a r g i n a l Employment S u b s i d i e s 45 Chapter I I I : INTERACTION OF PRACTICE AND RESEARCH The F i e l d P r a c t i c e S e t t i n g 50 The F i e l d P r a c t i c e as a Context f o r Research 52 - i v -TABLE OF CONTENTS Cont'd. page Chapter I I I Cont'd. U t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d Research Model 54 Stages o f the C o n s u l t a t i o n Process 56 P o l i c y and Programming I m p l i c a t i o n s 58 A p p r a i s a l o f the C o l l a b o r a t i v e Process 58 Chapter IV: THE RESEARCH PROBLEM Issues S e l e c t e d f o r Research 62 Conceptual Model of the Research 67 Knowledge-building F u n c t i o n o f the Research 70 P r e v i o u s Research 72 Trends i n the L i t e r a t u r e 74 C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 76 Program I n t e r v e n t i o n 78 Agency A d m i n i s t r a t i o n 79 Labour Market C o n d i t i o n s 80 Outcome V a r i a b l e s 81 Summary and I m p l i c a t i o n s o f P r e v i o u s Research . 84 Chapter V: RESEARCH DESIGN C o n t r o l over Phenomena t o be S t u d i e d 86 Sampling Design 87 Domains 88 S i z e and H e t e r o g e n e i t y 89 Timing of Data C o l l e c t i o n 91 M e t h o d o l o g i c a l O r i e n t a t i o n 91 Data C o l l e c t i o n 92 V a l i d i t y and R e l i a b i l i t y o f Data 95 Data A n a l y s i s 97 L i m i t a t i o n s o f the Study 99 E t h i c a l I ssues i n the Research 104 - v -TABLE OF CONTENTS Cont'd. page Chapter VI: FINDINGS U n i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s 105 C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 105 Program I n t e r v e n t i o n 109 Program A d m i n i s t r a t i o n 118 Labour Market C o n d i t i o n s ...; 120 Outcomes 122 Summary and D i s c u s s i o n 124 B i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s 126 C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 127 O p p o r t u n i t y F a c t o r s 129 Income A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t s 131 Summary and D i s c u s s i o n 135 Chapter V I I : IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS I m p l i c a t i o n s of the F i n d i n g s 142 Future Research 145 L i s t o f References 148 Appendices: Appendix A. F a c t Sheet I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job Program .. 154 Appendix B. Research Q u e s t i o n n a i r e 156 Appendix C. Request f o r CEIC Approval of the Research P r o j e c t 159 Appendix D. U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia E t h i c s Form 160 Appendix E. T a b l e s of N o n - s o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t and S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t Sub-groups 162 - v i -LIST OF TABLES page 1. Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Unemployment by D u r a t i o n , Canada, 1979 t o 1985 4 2. Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Unemployment by D u r a t i o n , B r i t i s h Columbia, 1979 t o 1985 5 3. Hidden Unemployment, B r i t i s h Columbia 9 4. P o p u l a t i o n , Employment, and Employment P o p u l a t i o n R a t i o s , B r i t i s h Columbia • 11 5. Annual Employment Averages, f o r S e l e c t e d I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r s , B r i t i s h Columbia ........ 15 6. Annual Employment Averages by Occupation, B r i t i s h Columbia 18 7. Components o f Annual P o p u l a t i o n Change, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1979 t o 1985 21 8. R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f Women and Youth Among the Long Term Long Term Unemployed, B r i t i s h Columbia and Yukon .... 27 9. P r i n c i p a l Employment Disadvantage 106 10. E d u c a t i o n 107 11. Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the Twelve Months Immediately P r i o r t o I S J : 108 12. L e v e l o f Family R e s p o n s i b i l i t y 109 13. R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r ' s Assessment o f C l i e n t M o t i v a t i o n 110 14. S u b s i d i z e d Jobs by Occupation 110 15. S u b s i d i z e d Jobs by I n d u s t r y I l l 16. Intended and A c t u a l D u r a t i o n of I S J 112 17. D i f f e r e n c e between I S J Wage Rate and Wage Rate Job Immediately P r i o r t o I S J 114 18. S k i l l L e v e l o f I S J R e l a t i v e t o Job Immediately P r i o r t o I S J 115 - v i i -LIST OF TABLES Cont'd. page 19. Career Path I d e n t i f i a b l e t o I S J P a r t i c i p a n t 116 20. Commitment o f Immediate s u p e r v i s o r t o Employment S k i l l s O b j e c t i v e s of I S J 117 21. Number of In t e r v i e w s w i t h R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r P r i o r t o I S J P a r t i c i p a t i o n 118 22. M o n i t o r i n g v i s i t s 119 23. D i f f i c u l t y o f Job Search 120 24. Balance Between O c c u p a t i o n a l Supply and Demand 121 25. Employment Outcome 122 26. C o u n s e l l o r ' s Assessment of C l i e n t B e n e f i t 123 - v i i i -LIST OF FIGURES page F i g u r e I . R e l a t i o n s h i p between V a r i a b l e s 65 F i g u r e I I . Covariance Research Design 68 F i g u r e I I I . Age Range of Program P a r t i c i p a n t s 105 F i g u r e IV. Intended C o n t r a c t D u r a t i o n 113 F i g u r e V. A c t u a l C o n t r a c t D u r a t i o n 113 - i x -ABBREVIATIONS USED IN TEXT AFDC A i d t o F a m i l i e s w i t h Dependent C h i l d r e n CAP Canada A s s i s t a n c e P l a n CCDO Canadian C l a s s i f i c a t i o n and D i c t i o n a r y o f Occupations CEC Canada Employment Centre CJS Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y COPS Canadian O c c u p a t i o n a l P r o j e c t i o n System EIC Employment and Immigration Canada GAIN Guaranteed A v a i l a b l e Income f o r Need A c t IS J I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program ISJ/SAR I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program t a r g e t e d on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s MSSH M i n i s t r y o f S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing SAR S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t - x -ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Many i n d i v i d u a l s made v a l u a b l e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h i s study. I would l i k e t o thank my t h e s i s a d v i s o r s , Dr. John Crane, Dr. Glen Drover and Dr. C h r i s McNiven f o r t h e i r guidance and c o n s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m d u r i n g the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t . T h i s r e s e a r c h would not have been p o s s i b l e without the support o f the Employment and Immigration Commission. In p a r t i c u l a r , I would l i k e t o thank the employment team a t the E a s t H a s t i n g s Canada Employment Centre and the Manager, Jean Shepherd, f o r t h e i r support and i n s i g h t i n t o t he employment needs o f t h e i r l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t s . F i n a l l y , I want t o acknowledge the cons t a n t support of my f a m i l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y my pa r e n t s who have always supported and encouraged me, and Sarah and Matthew f o r t h e i r p a t i e n c e and under s t a n d i n g over the p a s t y e a r . - x i -CHAPTER I BACKGROUND AND PROBLEM AREA I n t r o d u c t i o n The annual unemployment r a t e i n Canada r o s e from 7.5% i n 1980 t o 11.9% i n pos t r e c e s s i o n 1983 ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 71-529, 1984). D e c l i n i n g i n f l a t i o n r a t e s over t h i s same p e r i o d o f time, brought unemployment t o the f o r e f r o n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s economic agenda. The s i t u a t i o n prompted the Canadian Conference o f C a t h o l i c Bishops i n t h e i r e t h i c a l r e f l e c t i o n s on the Canadian economy i n 1983 t o r e f e r t o the scourge o f unemployment t h a t plagues s o c i e t y (Conference o f Canadian C a t h o l i c Bishops, 1983). The Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Pr o s p e c t s f o r Canada, b e t t e r known as the MacDonald commission, r e i t e r a t e d t h i s concern i n 1985, when i t s t a t e d t h a t unemployment must be regarded as the most s e r i o u s economic problem f a c i n g Canada (Royal Commission on the Economic Union, 1985). T h i s concern was not j u s t f o r the dramatic r i s e i n a b s o l u t e l e v e l s o f unemployment, but a r e f l e c t i o n o f growing concern f o r the i n c r e a s i n g numbers of long term unemployed Canadians. The purpose o f t h i s c h apter i s t o o u t l i n e l o n g term unemployment as a broad s o c i a l problem, as background f o r r e s e a r c h on one f e d e r a l j o b c r e a t i o n program, designed t o i n t e g r a t e t h e l o n g term unemployed i n t o the l a b o u r market. The - 1 -c h a p t e r w i l l examine the economic co n t e x t of l o n g term unemployment by f i r s t r e c o g n i z i n g d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the phrase 'long term' unemployment, and then i d e n t i f y i n g the l a b o u r f o r c e t r e n d s i n c e the 1981/82 r e c e s s i o n , toward the i n c r e a s e d d u r a t i o n of unemployment. V a r i o u s causes of long term unemployment w i l l then be e x p l o r e d under c y c l i c a l and non-c y c l i c a l unemployment c a t e g o r i e s . F i n a l l y , the chapter w i l l e x p l o r e the consequences of l o n g term unemployment on i n d i v i d u a l s , p o p u l a t i o n groups and s o c i e t y i n g e n e r a l , as background t o a d i s c u s s i o n o f l o n g term unemployment as a s i g n i f i c a n t , contemporary, s o c i a l i s s u e . The Economic Context o f Loner Term Unemployment D e f i n i t i o n o f Long Term Unemployment Much o f the l i t e r a t u r e and r e s e a r c h on the t o p i c i d e n t i f i e s unemployment l a s t i n g l o n g e r than one ye a r as l o n g term. The c u r r e n t employment i n i t i a t i v e s o f the f e d e r a l Employment and Immigration Commission under the Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y , i d e n t i f y i n d i v i d u a l s who have been unemployed 24 out o f the p r e v i o u s 3 0 weeks as the l o n g term unemployed. A s i m i l a r s i x month c r i t e r i a was used by the Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Prospects i n i t s d i s c u s s i o n of l o n g term unemployment. The s u b j e c t s i n t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t were a l l unemployed a t l e a s t 24 out the 3 0 weeks immediately p r i o r t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h i s j o b c r e a t i o n program as p a r t of the b a s i c e l i g i b i l i t y - 2 -c r i t e r i a f o r the p a r t i c u l a r employment i n i t i a t i v e under review. While i t i s necessary t o e s t a b l i s h c l e a r unemployment c r i t e r i a f o r purposes o f data c o l l e c t i o n and program a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , the l i t e r a t u r e c i t e d i n t h i s c hapter as background t o the t o p i c of l o n g term unemployment w i l l i n c l u d e r e f e r e n c e s t o both s i x and twelve month d u r a t i o n s of unemployment. No attempt w i l l be made t o c o n t r a s t one d u r a t i o n of unemployment w i t h another. The purpose o f the d i s c u s s i o n i s t o i d e n t i f y a c l e a r t r e n d toward i n c r e a s e d d u r a t i o n s of unemployment as a s i g n i f i c a n t s h i f t i n the p a t t e r n of unemployment, n a t i o n a l l y and w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The chapter w i l l g e n e r a l l y examine s t a t i s t i c s from 1979 t o 1985, t o cover a pre, d u r i n g , and p o s t r e c e s s i o n time frame. In c i d e n c e of Loner Term Unemployment In 1984, the Economic C o u n c i l of Canada i d e n t i f i e d t h a t the number o f i n d i v i d u a l s who had been unemployed l o n g e r than one year, more t h a t t r i p l e d from 1980 t o 1983, w h i l e t o t a l unemployment ro s e 69% (The Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1984). The C o u n c i l concluded t h a t l o n g term unemployment was a c r u c i a l i s s u e . The Macdonald commission examined the p r o p o r t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l s who had been unemployed f o r s i x months or more over the same time p e r i o d , 1980 t o 1983, and i d e n t i f i e d t h a t t h i s p r o p o r t i o n of a l l unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s had almost doubled from 15.5% t o 28.4% (Royal Commission on the Economic Union, 1985). Whichever c r i t e r i a was used t o measure the i n c i d e n c e o f l o n g term unemployment, i t was c l e a r t h a t a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of - 3 -unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s were e x p e r i e n c i n g l o n g e r d u r a t i o n s o f unemployment, i n the pos t r e c e s s i o n Canadian economy. Although the S t a t i s t i c s Canada Labour F o r c e Survey does not r e g u l a r l y r e p o r t unemployment d u r a t i o n s i n excess o f s i x o r twelve months, i t can be used t o c o n f i r m t h e s e t r e n d s and t o extend the a n a l y s i s i n t o the post r e c e s s i o n , r e c o v e r y p e r i o d . The S t a t i s t i c s Canada Labour Force Survey measures the d u r a t i o n o f unemployment as the number of continuous weeks d u r i n g which a person c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d as unemployed. The survey d e f i n e s an unemployed person as someone who i s without a j o b , has a c t i v e l y looked f o r work i n the f o u r weeks ending w i t h t h e survey week and i s a v a i l a b l e f o r work i n the r e f e r e n c e week (van C l e e f f , 1985). T h i s i n c l u d e s i n d i v i d u a l s on l a y o f f a w a i t i n g r e c a l l , those who p l a n t o commence a new job w i t h i n f o u r weeks and new e n t r a n t s t o the l a b o u r f o r c e who are see k i n g t h e i r f i r s t j o b . Table 1 Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Unemployment,  by D u r a t i o n , Canada, 1979 t o 1985 Du r a t i o n o f S p e l l of Unemployment 1979 1981 1983 1985 Less than 1 month 31.9 33.2 22.9 26.3 1 t o 3 months 30.0 29.5 25.9 26.1 Gr e a t e r than 3 months 34.6 33.9 49.0 45.4 Other 3.5 3.4 .0 2.2 100.0 100. 0 100.0 100. 0 Note: The Other category i n c l u d e s persons w i t h a j o b t o s t a r t w i t h i n 4 weeks of the r e f e r e n c e week who had not a c t i v e l y looked f o r work i n the p a s t 4 weeks, but who were a v a i l a b l e f o r work i n the r e f e r e n c e week. Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 71-529 and 71-001. - 4 -T a b l e 1 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t although the p r o p o r t i o n o f unemployment l a s t i n g t h r e e months or l o n g e r peaked i n 1983 and d e c l i n e d t o 45.4% of a l l unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s i n 1985, i t remained s u b s t a n t i a l l y above the p r e - r e c e s s i o n (1979) and e a r l y r e c e s s i o n (1981) l e v e l s d u r i n g t h i s r e c o v e r y p e r i o d . I t should be noted t h a t the d u r a t i o n of unemployment r e c o r d e d i n the Labour Force Survey r e f e r s t o the l e n g t h o f time a person has been unemployed up t o the end of the survey week. For any one i n d i v i d u a l , t h i s p e r i o d r e f e r s t o an incomplete s p e l l o f unemployment t h a t i s l i k e l y t o be l e s s than t h e t o t a l d u r a t i o n of unemployment. These f i g u r e s t h e r e f o r e u n d e r s t a t e the t o t a l d u r a t i o n o f unemployment experienced by the i n d i v i d u a l . The t r e n d toward the i n c r e a s e d d u r a t i o n o f unemployment i s , n e v e r t h e l e s s , c l e a r . Table 2 Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Unemployment  bv D u r a t i o n , B r i t i s h Columbia, 1979 t o 1985 D u r a t i o n o f S p e l l of Unemployment 1979 1981 1983 1985 Less than 1 month 32.6 40.7 23.5 23.6 1 t o 3 months 30.6 31.9 25.5 25.1 Gr e a t e r than 3 months 32.6 25.3 50.0 50.2 Other 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 100.0 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 71-529 and 71-001. Long term unemployment rose i n a l l r e g i o n s i n the e a r l y 1980's; however, the most s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s , i n percentage - 5 -terms, o c c u r r e d i n the western p r o v i n c e s (van C l e e f f , 1985). Table 2 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t the t r e n d i n B r i t i s h Columbia was very-s i m i l a r t o the n a t i o n a l t r e n d y e t more pronounced, as h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s o f unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s e x p e r i e n c e d r e l a t i v e l y l o n g e r p e r i o d s o f unemployment d u r i n g and immediately a f t e r the r e c e s s i o n . Notably, t h i s t r e n d has c o n t i n u e d l o n g e r i n t h i s p r o v i n c e than i n the country as a whole, as t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s unemployed f o r t h r e e months o r l o n g e r i n B r i t i s h Columbia remained over 50% of a l l unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s , w e l l i n t o the r e c o v e r y phase f o r 1985. Another i n d i c a t o r of the i n c r e a s e d d u r a t i o n o f unemployment over the r e c e s s i o n and i n t o the re c o v e r y p e r i o d i n B r i t i s h Columbia, i s the average d u r a t i o n o f unemployment, a l s o taken from the monthly Labour Force Survey. In Canada the average d u r a t i o n i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y from 15.1 weeks i n 1981, t o a h i g h of 21.6 weeks r e c o r d e d f o r each of 1984 and 1985. In B r i t i s h Columbia, the average d u r a t i o n o f unemployment d e c l i n e d from 14.3 i n 1979 t o 11.2 weeks i n 1981, then i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y t o 25.3 weeks i n 1985. Only i n 1986 has t h i s t r e n d toward an i n c r e a s i n g average d u r a t i o n o f unemployment r e v e r s e d i n the p o s t - r e c e s s i o n B r i t i s h Columbia economy ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Cat. Nos. 71-001 and 71-529). An Overview of Unemployment S t a t i s t i c s Whatever the d u r a t i o n of unemployment, i t i s important t o understand how unemployment s t a t i s t i c s g e n e r a l l y , a r e r e p o r t e d - 6 -and t o a p p r e c i a t e j u s t what i s i n c l u d e d and i n f a c t , not i n c l u d e d , i n o f f i c i a l measures of unemployment. The unemployment r a t e i s a measure of the number o f people unemployed, t e m p o r a r i l y l a i d o f f or see k i n g employment, r e l a t i v e t o the numbers employed. As a measure of the i n t e r a c t i o n o f supply and demand f a c t o r s i n t h e l a b o u r market, i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the unemployment r a t e can v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y as i n d i v i d u a l s change t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l p r e f e r e n c e s and l a b o u r supply behaviour (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1981). There are two f a c t o r s which cause o f f i c i a l S t a t i s t i c s Canada measures o f unemployment, both o v e r a l l and l o n g term unemployment, t o u n d e r s t a t e the impact of unemployment. One r e l a t e s t o how unemployment i s measured and the o t h e r i s a consequence of what i s measured. The r a t e of unemployment i s a s t a t i c measure of the s t o c k or p o o l of unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s a t a p o i n t i n time and i t t h e r e f o r e underestimates the t o t a l number o f i n d i v i d u a l s a f f e c t e d by unemployment. The r a t e of unemployment, can f l u c t u a t e because of changes i n e i t h e r the number o f persons becoming unemployed (turnover) or the average l e n g t h o f unemployment ( d u r a t i o n ) . The a c t u a l r a t e o f unemployment i s t h e r e f o r e a l i m i t e d measure of the impact o f unemployment g e n e r a l l y , as w e l l as an inadequate measure o f the h a r d s h i p of l o n g e r term unemployment on the i n d i v i d u a l . T r a d i t i o n a l l y i n North America, the t u r n o v e r or flow of i n d i v i d u a l s among s t a t e s of b e i n g employed, unemployed and out of the l a b o u r f o r c e has - 7 -been l a r g e and continuous (Labour Market Development, 1981) w i t h unemployment a f f e c t i n g more people f o r s h o r t e r p e r i o d s of time than i n European c o u n t r i e s (Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1984). I t has o n l y been s i n c e the 1981/82 r e c e s s i o n t h a t a t t e n t i o n has focused on the d u r a t i o n of unemployment as a s i g n i f i c a n t i n d i c a t o r of change w i t h i n the l a b o u r market (van C l e e f f , 1985). T h i s r e c o g n i t i o n of the i n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e of l o n g term unemployment has l e a d t o renewed concern i n the s o c i a l work l i t e r a t u r e over the impact of long d u r a t i o n s o f unemployment on the i n d i v i d u a l . O f f i c i a l measures of unemployment a l s o c o n t a i n a hidden p s y c h o l o g i c a l element, because they measure unemployment as a percentage o f the l a b o u r f o r c e , i . e . those i n d i v i d u a l s a c t i v e l y s e e k i n g work. Although the m a j o r i t y o f unemployed c o n t i n u e t o seek employment, i t i s acknowledged t h a t workers f r e q u e n t l y become d i s c o u r a g e d l o o k i n g f o r work i n t i g h t l a b o u r markets and withdraw from the l a b o u r f o r c e . Women and youth are more l i k e l y t o abandon t h e i r j o b s e a r c h than a d u l t men, and o f f i c i a l unemployment s t a t i s t i c s t h e r e f o r e tend t o underestimate t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n among the long term unemployed (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1984). While o f f i c i a l measures s t i l l do not account f o r t h i s behaviour, attempts t o measure t h i s f a c t o r c o n f i r m t h a t as o v e r a l l unemployment i n c r e a s e s , and more unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s compete f o r s c a r c e r j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s , t h i s element of hidden unemployment r i s e s (Royal Commission on the Economic Union, 1985). T a b l e 3 c o n t a i n s estimates of the numbers o f d i s c o u r a g e d - 8 -workers and conf i r m s t h i s t r e n d , f o r B r i t i s h Columbia. For example, when the unemployment r a t e r o s e s h a r p l y from 6.7% i n 1981 t o 12.1% i n 1982, the estimated number of hidden unemployed who became d i s c o u r a g e d and withdrew from the l a b o u r f o r c e , i n c r e a s e d from 4,000 t o 11,00 i n d i v i d u a l s . The number of d i s c o u r a g e d workers has remained h i g h a l o n g w i t h the o v e r a l l r a t e o f unemployment, s i n c e the r e c e s s i o n . Table 3 Hidden Unemployment, B r i t i s h Columbia Year Unemployment Discouraged I n v o l u n t a r y Rate Workers P a r t - t i m e 1979 7.7% 4,000 32.000 1980 6.6% 33,000 1981 6.7% 4,000 30,000 1982 12.1 11,000 52,000 1983 13.8 12,000 74,000 1984 14.8 11,000 86,000 1985 14.2 10,000 83,000 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 710001 and 71-529. Another aspect o f hidden unemployment i s t h e number of i n d i v i d u a l s working p a r t - t i m e on an i n v o l u n t a r y b a s i s because they are not a b l e t o f i n d f u l l time employment. These numbers have a l s o p r e d i c t a b l y r i s e n , as the o v e r a l l l e v e l o f unemployment has i n c r e a s e d . Table 3 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t s i n c e 1984, t h i s a s p e c t of unemployment has a f f e c t e d w e l l over 80,000 i n d i v i d u a l s . These two elements of hidden unemployment may be more p r e v a l e n t among the l o n g term unemployed, as the s e i n d i v i d u a l s a re more apt t o become d i s c o u r a g e d i n t h e i r j o b sea r c h and withdraw from the labour f o r c e o r r e s o r t t o p a r t - t i m e - 9 -employment a f t e r Unemployment Insurance b e n e f i t s and p e r s o n a l s a v i n g s have been exhausted. Causes of Long Term Unemployment Economists d i s t i n g u i s h between unemployment t h a t a r i s e s from a d e f i c i e n c y o f aggregate demand i n the economy, which i s r e f e r r e d t o as c y c l i c a l unemployment, and n o n - c y c l i c a l unemployment. The l a t t e r , n o n - c y c l i c a l unemployment, i s most f r e q u e n t l y d i v i d e d i n t o f r i c t i o n a l , s e a s o n a l , and s t r u c t u r a l unemployment. Although s t r u c t u r a l unemployment has more d i r e c t impact on t h e d u r a t i o n of unemployment, an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f each type of unemployment i s e s s e n t i a l t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e dynamic nature of the l a b o u r market and t o i d e n t i f y those f a c t o r s t h a t have c o n t r i b u t e d t o the i n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e o f l o n g term unemployment. C y c l i c a l Unemployment; C y c l i c a l unemployment i s unemployment caused by normal f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the b u s i n e s s c y c l e , the r e c u r r i n g boom and bust sequence i d e n t i f i e d by B r i t i s h economist John Maynard Keynes i n h i s 1936 General Theory of Employment, I n t e r e s t and Money. The 1981/82 r e c e s s i o n was a p e r i o d o f dramatic i n c r e a s e i n unemployment, p r i m a r i l y c y c l i c a l i n nature, as a r e s u l t of decreased aggregate demand f o r goods and s e r v i c e s . A comprehensive a n a l y s i s o f t h e causes o f the r e c e s s i o n are beyond the scope of t h i s c h a p ter. However, the r e c e s s i o n has i n f l u e n c e d the d u r a t i o n of unemployment and i t i s t h e r e f o r e important t o understand the ext e n t o f the c y c l i c a l unemployment which o c c u r r e d i n B r i t i s h Columbia, d u r i n g t h i s - 10 -p e r i o d . Because o f the hidden p s y c h o l o g i c a l o r b e h a v i o r a l element i n c l u d e d i n o f f i c i a l measures of unemployment, t h a t have p r e v i o u s l y been i d e n t i f i e d , s h i f t s i n employment l e v e l s r e l a t i v e t o the o v e r a l l p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be used i n t h i s a n a l y s i s t o i d e n t i f y t h e impact of the r e c e s s i o n . T a b l e 4 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t the employment r a t e , which measures employment as a percentage of the whole p o p u l a t i o n a v a i l a b l e f o r e i t h e r work o r l e i s u r e , d e c l i n e d s t e a d i l y i n B r i t i s h Columbia from 60.7% i n 1981 t o 54.5% i n 1984. Only i n 1985 has t h i s t r e n d r e v e r s e d w i t h an i n c r e a s e i n the employment p o p u l a t i o n r a t i o t o 55.2%. Table 4 P o p u l a t i o n , Employment and Employment  P o p u l a t i o n R a t i o s , B r i t i s h Columbia Year P o p u l a t i o n Employment Emp./Pop. (000's) (000') R a t i o (%) 1979 1960 1144 58.4 1980 2028 1213 59.8 1981 2092 1270 60.7 1982 2132 1204 56.5 1983 2165 1197 55.3 1984 2204 1202 54.5 1985 2226 1228 55.2 Note: P o p u l a t i o n i n c l u d e s those 15 years and o l d e r and excludes n a t i v e s on r e s e r v e as w e l l as f u l l time members of the armed f o r c e s . Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 71-001 and 71-529. - 11 -T a b l e 4 a l s o i d e n t i f i e s t h a t average employment i n B.C. f e l l by 5.7%, from a p r e - r e c e s s i o n h i g h of 1,270,000 j o b s i n 1981 t o a low of 1,197,000 j o b s i n 1983. Although t h e o v e r a l l l e v e l of employment has grown each year s i n c e 1983, average employment i n 1985 remained 52,000 j o b s below the p r e - r e c e s s i o n peak employment l e v e l i n 1981. Most of the o v e r a l l i n c r e a s e i n unemployment as a r e s u l t of the r e c e s s i o n , was c y c l i c a l i n nature and c y c l i c a l f a c t o r s have continued t o dampen the growth i n employment d u r i n g the r e c o v e r y p e r i o d . I n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , the economic c l i m a t e c o o l e d down d u r i n g the r e c e s s i o n l e a v i n g excess c a p a c i t y p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the t r a d i t i o n a l goods p r o d u c i n g i n d u s t r i e s . I n c r e a s e d c o m p e t i t i o n from abroad i n many of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , a l s o suppressed demand below the c a p a c i t y of r e s o u r c e and manufacturing s e c t o r s i n the c o u n t r y as a whole. In a r e s o u r c e based economy l i k e B r i t i s h Columbia, th e s e c y c l i c a l f a c t o r s have had an even g r e a t e r impact (Emery, 1986) . F r i c t i o n a l and Seasonal Unemployment: F r i c t i o n a l unemployment i s a normal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of a dynamic l a b o u r market which oc c u r s as i n d i v i d u a l s seek a l t e r n a t e employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s and j o b s t u r n over as a consequence. Although t h i s form o f unemployment does not u s u a l l y l a s t l o n g (Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1984), r e c e n t a n a l y s i s o f t h i s j o b - s e a r c h unemployment has focused a t t e n t i o n on s p e c i f i c l a b o u r market p o l i c i e s t o reduce employment i n s t a b i l i t y , and t o ease and t o speed j o b s e a r c h (Royal Commission on Economic Union, 1985, p.592) . - 12 -Seasonal unemployment occurs because o f employment p a t t e r n s i n i n d u s t r i e s such as a g r i c u l t u r e , f i s h i n g and f o r e s t r y , which are s e n s i t i v e t o se a s o n a l v a r i a t i o n i n c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s . Consumption p a t t e r n s can i n f l u e n c e the s e a s o n a l demand f o r l a b o u r and dramatic i n c r e a s e s i n the supply o f l a b o u r , f o r example students e n t e r i n g the labour market a t the end of t h e academic year, a l s o c o n t r i b u t e t o seasonal unemployment. Seasonal unemployment i s not normally a f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g t o lo n g d u r a t i o n s of unemployment, although the p a t t e r n may p e r s i s t f o r some workers such as fishermen over l o n g p e r i o d s o f time. S t r u c t u r a l Unemployment: While l o n g term unemployment was d e f i n i t e l y a f f e c t e d by c y c l i c a l unemployment d u r i n g the r e c e s s i o n , economists i n c r e a s i n g l y r e c o g n i z e t h a t deeper more permanent s t r u c t u r a l changes i n the l a b o u r market have had and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o have a s u b s t a n t i a l i n f l u e n c e on t h e d u r a t i o n of unemployment. In 1984, the Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada l a b e l l e d the i n c r e a s e i n s t r u c t u r a l unemployment d i s t u r b i n g (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1984). The Commission of E n q u i r y on Unemployment Insurance, known as the Forget Commission, acknowledged t h a t the importance of se a s o n a l and c y c l i c a l f a c t o r s on o v e r a l l unemployment l e v e l s has d e c l i n e d r e l a t i v e t o s t r u c t u r a l causes (Commission of Enquiry, 1986). There are no d i r e c t measures of s t r u c t u r a l unemployment. Instead, the n o n - c y c l i c a l forms ( f r i c t i o n a l , s e a s o n a l and s t r u c t u r a l ) a r e measured t o g e t h e r by i n f e r e n c e as t h a t l e v e l of - 13 -unemployment which occurs a t the peak l e v e l s o f economic a c t i v i t y . Another i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h i s n o n - c y c l i c a l r a t e i s t h a t i t r e p r e s e n t s the lowest a t t a i n a b l e r a t e o f unemployment i n the s h o r t run, from macroeconomic p o l i c y (EIC, 1980). I t , t h e r e f o r e , measures the concept of f u l l employment i n the s h o r t run, a measure which has d r i f t e d upward over time. In the peak employment y e a r s , 1966, 1974 and 1980, t h i s unemployment r a t e i n Canada sto o d a t 3.4, 5.3 and 7.5, r e s p e c t i v e l y (EIC, 1980, and S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 71-529). Whatever the measure, s t r u c t u r a l elements o f unemployment have been e v i d e n t over the p r e v i o u s two decades and can be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h r e e g e n e r a l f a c t o r s ; t e c h n o l o g i c a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , and b e h a v i o r a l (Labour Market Development, 1981) . Mismatches i n the j o b market and the e f f e c t s o f wage d i f f e r e n t i a l s , t h a t have a l s o been o f f e r e d as e x p l a n a t i o n s o f t h i s i n c r e a s e i n s t r u c t u r a l unemployment (Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1984), can be i n c l u d e d under these same t h r e e g e n e r a l f a c t o r s . Even though the impact of t e c h n o l o g i c a l change has a c c e l e r a t e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s , i n s t i t u t i o n a l and b e h a v i o r a l f a c t o r s appear t o co n t i n u e t o i n f l u e n c e employment p a t t e r n s . Each o f the s e t h r e e f a c t o r s warrants i n d i v i d u a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n , and w i l l be d i s c u s s e d w i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o how each has i n f l u e n c e d the supply and demand f o r l a b o u r i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The impact o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change on employment has been p e r v a s i v e (Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1984). I t s e f f e c t on the demand f o r l a b o u r i s most d r a m a t i c a l l y i l l u s t r a t e d by r e f e r e n c e t o s p e c i f i c i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s . Table 5 r e p o r t s annual - 14 -employment averages, i n B r i t i s h Columbia, f o r s e l e c t e d i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s , over the years 1979 through 1985. Table 5  Annual Employment Averages,  S e l e c t e d I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r s , B r i t i s h Columbia (000's) S e c t o r Year 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Primary, Non 1122 1191 1244 1174 1163 1168 1192 A g r i c u l t u r a l Other Primary Occ 56 59 62 47 53 50 55 Manufacturing 178 178 184 159 151 148 151 C o n s t r u c t i o n 76 80 93 77 70 70 69 S e r v i c e 341 372 391 384 400 407 426 ALL S e c t o r s 1144 1213 1270 1204 1197 1202 1228 Source: S t a t i s t i c s i Canada, Catalogue No. 71-•001 and 71-529. W i t h i n each o f these s e c t o r s , employment peaked i n 1981 and d e s p i t e the r e c o v e r y p e r i o d , i n 1985 remained below the p r e -r e c e s s i o n l e v e l s f o r a l l but the s e r v i c e s e c t o r ( n o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l primary p r o d u c t i o n 4.2% below, manufacturing 17.9% below, c o n s t r u c t i o n 25.8% below). The most s u b s t a n t i a l area of growth i n the B.C. economy s i n c e t h e r e c e s s i o n has been i n t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r , where employment l e v e l s i n 1985 were 8.9% ahead of the p r e v i o u s employment peak i n 1981. Again, r e f e r r i n g t o Table 5, events w i t h i n t h e manufacturing s e c t o r i l l u s t r a t e the e x t e n t t o which s t r u c t u r a l changes can i n f l u e n c e employment l e v e l s . Employment w i t h i n the - 15 -manufacturing s e c t o r continued t o d e c l i n e throughout the r e c e s s i o n from a 1981 peak of 184,000 i n d i v i d u a l s , t o a low of 148,000 i n 1984. In 1985, t h e r e was modest r e c o v e r y t o 151,000, s t i l l 17.9 % below the p r e - r e c e s s i o n h i g h f o r t h i s i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . Wood p r o c e s s i n g w i t h i n the f o r e s t r y i n d u s t r y i s a good example of the impact which t e c h n o l o g i c a l change can have on l e v e l s of employment. Although p r o d u c t i o n i n the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y had r e c o v e r e d and surpassed p r e - r e c e s s i o n 1981 l e v e l s by the summer of 1986, the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f new t e c h n o l o g y which improved p r o d u c t i v i t y i n lumber p r o c e s s i n g , produced t h i s output w i t h a 40% r e d u c t i o n i n l a b o u r (CEIC, Economic Review, 1986). When these s t r u c t u r a l employment s h i f t s are combined w i t h US p r o t e c t i o n i s m expressed as d u t i e s on shakes and s h i n g l e s and on s o f t wood lumber imports, the e f f e c t has been a s i g n i f i c a n t l o n g term r e d u c t i o n i n employment w i t h i n the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y . W i t h i n the manufacturing s e c t o r , the i n c r e a s e d automation of c a p i t a l equipment based on m i c r o e l e c t r o n i c s and semiconductor technology has l e d t o s i g n i f i c a n t changes (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1984). Computer-aided d e s i g n and computer-aided manufacturing have i n f l u e n c e d and are expected t o c o n t i n u e t o i n f l u e n c e employment l e v e l s i n the manufacturing s e c t o r . The m i n i a t u r i z a t i o n o f computer technology and d r a matic c o s t r e d u c t i o n s , have made micro p r o c e s s o r s e c o n o m i c a l l y c o m p e t i t i v e i n a wide range o f i n d u s t r i a l manufacturing a p p l i c a t i o n s . The a l r e a d y e v i d e n t s h i f t s toward more c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e p r o c e s s e s w i l l c o n t i n u e as manufacturers r e p l a c e e x i s t i n g machinery. Job d i s l o c a t i o n can be expected. Long term unemployment i s o f t e n - 16 -the outcome of t h e s e s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t s i n employment p a t t e r n s , as the i n d i v i d u a l s d i s p l a c e d when jobs d i s a p p e a r are not n e c e s s a r i l y those h i r e d i n the growing s e r v i c e s e c t o r i n d u s t r i e s . R e l a t i v e wage s t r u c t u r e s or wage r i g i d i t i e s which d i s c o u r a g e employers from l o w e r i n g t h e i r c o s t of p r o d u c t i o n d u r i n g p e r i o d s of d e c l i n i n g demand, have a l s o been suggested as a f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g t o i n c r e a s e d s t r u c t u r a l unemployment (Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1984). Although t h i s was a c a u t i o u s argument, p r e s e n t e d w i t h some evidence from t h e p o s t r e c e s s i o n p e r i o d of worker p r e f e r e n c e f o r wage moderation i n exchange f o r c o n t i n u e d employment, the Economic C o u n c i l concluded t h a t t h e r e may be noncompetitive elements i n wage s e t t i n g t h a t are d i s c o u r a g i n g a d d i t i o n a l employment. Major s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t s i n employment due t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l change are a l s o e v i d e n t w i t h i n c e r t a i n o c c u p a t i o n a l a r e a s . T a b l e 6 r e c o r d s annual employment averages by o c c u p a t i o n a l area, f o r B r i t i s h Columbia. While o v e r a l l r e c o v e r y from the r e c e s s i o n has been modest, r e c o v e r y w i t h i n c e r t a i n o c c u p a t i o n a l areas, such as the c l e r i c a l f i e l d , has been even slower. Automation i n the work p l a c e has and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o dampen the demand f o r c l e r i c a l workers as more o f f i c e s s h i f t t o more e f f i c i e n t computer-aided p r o c e s s i n g and a n a l y s i s of i n f o r m a t i o n . The 203,000 c l e r i c a l workers employed i n 1985 remains 8.5% below the p r e - r e c e s s i o n employment h i g h of 222,000 i n d i v i d u a l s . These same f a c t o r s have reduced the number of middle managers needed t o s y n t h e s i z e and analyze - 17 -i n f o r m a t i o n f o r h i g h e r l e v e l s of management. Many o f the o r g a n i z a t i o n s which adapted t o the r e c e s s i o n by l a y i n g o f f middle management and adopting f l a t t e r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s may never need t o r e - h i r e due t o computer disp l a c e m e n t i n these o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s ; what has been c a l l e d i n f o r m a t i c s or the marriage of i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g and telecommunications technology (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1984). Table 6 Annual Employment Averages by Occupation  B r i t i s h Columbia (000's) Occupations Year 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 M anagerial and P r o f e s s i o n a l 264 278 298 290 294 323 334 C l e r i c a l 190 202 222 213 204 201 203 S a l e s 134 139 141 136 141 134 135 S e r v i c e s 163 183 187 182 187 178 183 Primary Occupations 57 61 62 58 68 68 72 P r o c e s s i n g 157 161 163 148 135 134 140 C o n s t r u c t i o n 80 85 96 82 71 69 74 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 51 54 55 51 53 53 50 M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g 48 50 46 44 44 42 37 A l l Occupations 1144 1213 1270 1204 1197 1202 1228 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No . 71-•001 i and 71 -529. T h i s a n a l y s i s suggests t h a t t h e r e have been major s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t s i n employment p a t t e r n s w i t h i n the B r i t i s h Columbia economy s i n c e the r e c e s s i o n . T h i s c o n c l u s i o n appears c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the n a t i o n a l t r e n d i d e n t i f i e d by the F o r g e t Commission which s t a t e d t h a t the new jobs which are b e i n g c r e a t e d are not - 18 -the same jo b s l o s t through t e c h n o l o g i c a l change o r t h o se l o s t d u r i n g the r e c e s s i o n (Commission of Enquiry, 1986 p. 51). Although t e c h n o l o g i c a l change has had the g r e a t e s t impact on s t r u c t u r a l unemployment i n r e c e n t y e a r s , i n s t i t u t i o n a l and demographic f a c t o r s have a l s o i n f l u e n c e d s t r u c t u r a l unemployment and hence c o n t r i b u t e d t o the i n c i d e n c e of l o n g term unemployment. A 1974 Economic C o u n c i l of Canada study o f mismatches between job v a c a n c i e s and unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s , concluded t h a t whatever worsening of s t r u c t u r a l unemployment p a t t e r n s had o c c u r r e d up u n t i l t h a t p o i n t , was due mainly t o changes on the supply s i d e o f the l a b o u r market ( C i t e d i n Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1984). I n s t i t u t i o n a l changes implemented i n the 1970's through i n c r e a s e d minimum wages, r e s t r i c t e d the demand i n low wage, entrance l e v e l o c c u p a t i o n s . R e v i s i o n s t o the Unemployment Insurance A c t i n 1971 s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s e d b e n e f i t s i n terms of the percentage o f income r e p l a c e d and the d u r a t i o n o f b e n e f i t s . A t the same time, the number of i n s u r a b l e weeks r e q u i r e d t o be e l i g i b l e f o r U l was s i g n i f i c a n t l y reduced. Although amendments t o the r e g u l a t i o n s a f t e r 1971, p a r t l y o f f s e t the impact of these changes, debate c o n t i n u e s as t o t h e impact of the 1971 U l changes on lab o u r f o r c e p a t t e r n s (Strandberg, 1984). A f e d e r a l t a s k f o r c e which reviewed the impact of U l l e g i s l a t i o n concluded t h a t the 1971 changes i n c r e a s e d the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , i n c r e a s e d the r a t e a t which people tend t o q u i t e x i s t i n g jobs and lengthened the - 19 -d u r a t i o n o f time people remain unemployed (CEIC, Labour Market Development, 1981). In summary, the economic l i t e r a t u r e suggests t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n a l f a c t o r s e v i d e n t long b e f o r e t h e 1981/82 r e c e s s i o n , have r e s t r i c t e d t he demand f o r l a b o u r w h i l e t h e y have i n c r e a s e d the supply. The i n t e r a c t i o n o f these l a b o u r s u p p l y and demand s h i f t s has c o n t r i b u t e d t o an o v e r a l l i n c r e a s e i n the l e v e l o f unemployment as w e l l as the d u r a t i o n o f unemployment. Demographic f a c t o r s have a l s o i n f l u e n c e d t h e 15.5% i n c r e a s e i n t he l a b o u r f o r c e o f B r i t i s h Columbia from 1979 t o 1985. The l a r g e s t s i n g l e demographic t r e n d which has i n f l u e n c e d t h i s i n c r e a s e i n the l a b o u r s u p p l y , i s the i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n the la b o u r f o r c e . N a t i o n a l l y , t he p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e of women has i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y s i n c e the 1950's (Royal Commission o f En q u i r y on Unemployment Insurance, 1986), and t h i s t r e n d has co n t i n u e d i n t o t h i s decade w i t h the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e f o r women i n B r i t i s h Columbia r i s i n g from 49.0% i n 1979 t o 53.7% i n 1985 ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue 71-001 and 71-259). I n c r e a s i n g numbers of youth who ente r e d t he l a b o u r f o r c e d u r i n g t he 1970's a l s o c h a l l e n g e d the c a p a c i t y o f t h e economy t o c r e a t e s u f f i c i e n t employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r new e n t r a n t s . While the upward p r e s s u r e on the supply o f l a b o u r from youth has tap e r e d o f f i n the 1980's as the baby boom g e n e r a t i o n has aged and moved i n t o the prime age working c a t e g o r y (25 t o 44 y e a r s ) , i t has been suggested t h a t t h i s p o p u l a t i o n group may co n t i n u e t o have a s t r u c t u r a l impact on unemployment. As a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e demographic group competing i n the la b o u r market, t h e i r - 20 -unemployment may remain h i g h t o the extent t h a t c o m p e t i t i o n f o r j o b s i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o n c e n t r a t e d among s i m i l a r age groups w i t h s i m i l a r s k i l l s and experience (Commission o f E n q u i r y , 1986). O v e r a l l p o p u l a t i o n growth w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia has a l s o had some e f f e c t on the supply of labour, d u r i n g t h i s time p e r i o d . The t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of the p r o v i n c e has i n c r e a s e d every year, from 2,584 thousand i n 1979 t o 2,893 thousand i n 1985 ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue No. 91-210). Tab l e 7 examines the components of t h i s p o p u l a t i o n change. Table 7 Components o f Annual P o p u l a t i o n Change  B r i t i s h Columbia, 1979 t o 1985 (000's) B i r t h s Deaths Immig- Emig- Net I n t e r - Annual r a t i o n r a t i o n p r o v i n c i a l Net M i g r a t i o n Change 1979/80 38.9 19.2 21.1 5.5 40.2 75.5 1980/81 40.7 19.7 23.4 5.3 37.9 77.0 1981/82 42.6 20.2 22.2 6.3 8.7 47.2 1982/83 42 .4 20.3 16.0 7.1 -1.5 29,5 1983/84 43.6 19.7 14.3 6.8 13.1 45.5 1984/85 45.0 20.6 12.0 6.8 -2.3 27.3 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Catalogue 91-210 (1986). B i r t h s , deaths and e m i g r a t i o n have each remained f a i r l y steady over the pre t o p o s t r e c e s s i o n p e r i o d , w i t h t h e g r e a t e s t change o c c u r r i n g through immigration and net i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n . Immigration has g e n e r a l l y d e c l i n e d w h i l e net i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n has been the most u n s t a b l e component of p o p u l a t i o n change, f l u c t u a t i n g w i d e l y s i n c e the r e c e s s i o n . These f i g u r e s alone do not g i v e an i n d i c a t i o n o f the impact of t h i s p o p u l a t i o n growth on the supply of l a b o u r . Age breakdowns would be needed t o i d e n t i f y those i n d i v i d u a l s 15 years and o l d e r who were p o t e n t i a l l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a n t s . Labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f o r v a r i o u s age groups would then be needed t o e s t i m a t e the impact of t h e s e new r e s i d e n t s on the supply of l a b o u r . Even without t h i s d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s , however, i t would appear t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s moving i n t o B r i t i s h Columbia from o t h e r c o u n t r i e s and p a r t i c u l a r l y o t h e r p r o v i n c e s , c o u l d have c o n t r i b u t e d t o the i n c r e a s e d l a b o u r supply p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the p r e - r e c e s s i o n p e r i o d and d u r i n g 1983/84. In c o n c l u s i o n , t h i s a n a l y s i s of the B r i t i s h Columbia economy has i d e n t i f i e d t h a t both l a b o u r supply and demand f a c t o r s have been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the s i g n i f i c a n t r i s e i n unemployment over the l a s t decade. T e c h n o l o g i c a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l and demographic f a c t o r s have each had an impact on s t r u c t u r a l unemployment, which i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h l o n g e r d u r a t i o n s o f unemployment. T e c h n o l o g i c a l change which i s p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t w i t h i n c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s and o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s , has c o n t i n u e d t o be a major f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g t o l o n g term unemployment i n the p o s t - r e c e s s i o n , p r o v i n c i a l economy. C y c l i c a l unemployment as a r e s u l t of the r e c e s s i o n , has c o n t i n u e d t o compound these s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s and c o n t r i b u t e d t o the dramatic i n c r e a s e i n the d u r a t i o n o f unemployment d u r i n g the 1980's. - 22 -The Consequences of Long Term Unemployment The Impact of l o n g term unemployment The e f f e c t of l o n g term unemployment on i n d i v i d u a l s , i t s unequal d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n and i t s u l t i m a t e impact upon s o c i e t y , make i t an i s s u e of concern t o s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s . The impact of t e c h n o l o g i c a l change, which t h i s a n a l y s i s has shown i s s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o l o n g e r term d u r a t i o n s of unemployment, i s expected t o a c c e l e r a t e and w i l l have co n t i n u e d impact on employment p a t t e r n s . The slow r e c o v e r y o f the p r o v i n c i a l economy from the r e c e s s i o n and a f o r e c a s t of modest economic growth over the next few y e a r s w i t h unemployment i n the 13% range (Province of B r i t i s h Columbia Budget, 1987) mean t h a t l o n g term unemployment c o u l d p r e d i c t a b l y c o n t i n u e t o be an i s s u e of concern through the remainder o f the decade. I t i s , t h e r e f o r e , important t o understand the impact of l o n g term unemployment a t a l l l e v e l s w i t h i n s o c i e t y . While s e v e r a l s t u d i e s have examined the p s y c h o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s of unemployment, few have s p e c i f i c a l l y l o oked a t the p s y c h o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s of l o n g term unemployment. The immediate impact o f unemployment on the i n d i v i d u a l has been i d e n t i f i e d as decreased money, lower a c t i v i t y l e v e l s , l e s s v a r i e t y o f surrounding and a c t i v i t i e s , l e s s temporal s t r u c t u r e s and fewer s o c i a l c o n t a c t s (Young, 1985). P s y c h o l o g i c a l l y , t h e s e f a c t o r s m a n i f e s t themselves i n lower s e l f esteem, a n x i e t y , anomie, s e l f - b l a m e , anger, lower m o t i v a t i o n t o work, lower l i f e s a t i s f a c t i o n and h e l p l e s s n e s s . The i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y t o - 23 -f u l f i l l h i s o r her needs tends t o s h i f t downward i n r e l a t i o n t o Maslow's h i e r a r c h y of needs. The p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e a c t i o n s which accompany t h i s downward s h i f t appear t o be p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r o n g i n s i t u a t i o n s where unemployment r e s u l t s from f o r c e s o u t s i d e the c o n t r o l o f the i n d i v i d u a l , f o r example i n unemployment caused by s t r u c t u r a l and c y c l i c a l economic f a c t o r s . Herzberg's t h e o r y of m o t i v a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o j o b s a t i s f i e r s (motivators) and j o b d i s s a t i s f i e r s (hygiene f a c t o r s ) , suggests t h a t work i s a v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t l i f e event. An i n d i v i d u a l ' s involvement w i t h o t h e r s , sense of s a t i s f a c t i o n and s e l f i d e n t i t y are a l l s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h work. Job l o s s can d r a m a t i c a l l y a l t e r these p a t t e r n s . O u t s i d e the workplace, unemployment can change the dynamics w i t h i n f a m i l i e s and w i t h i n non-work-related f r i e n d s h i p networks i n the wider community. These e f f e c t s are not s u r p r i s i n g i n a s o c i e t y which p l a c e s so much v a l u e on the meaning of p a i d work and where our s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s r e i n f o r c e t h a t meaning. Recent r e s e a r c h by Borgen and Amundson a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia on the experience of unemployment, examined the h y p o t h e s i s t h a t l o s i n g a job s e t s o f f a s e r i e s o f emotional responses s i m i l a r t o the stages i d e n t i f i e d i n the Kubler-Ross model of g r i e f . Under t h i s model, d e n i a l , anger and b a r g a i n i n g are f o l l o w e d by d e p r e s s i o n b e f o r e g r a d u a l acceptance o f the job l o s s . I t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t emotional r e a c t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the subsequent job search, would depend upon the success or f a i l u r e o f the j o b search and might be s i m i l a r t o those of burn out. The r e s u l t s confirmed t h a t t h i s model was r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of - 24 -the e x p e r i e n c e of approximately 40% of the study p a r t i c i p a n t s . While a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s found the experience t o be a t r a u m a t i c one c h a r a c t e r i z e d by dramatic s h i f t s i n economic power, p e r s o n a l support and s e l f - e s t e e m , the r e s u l t s suggested t h a t i t i s important t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e among groups, p a r t i c u l a r l y women, immigrants and youth, when c o n s i d e r i n g the e x p e r i e n c e o f unemployment (Borgen and Amundson, 1984). Although Borgen and Amundson r e f e r r e d t o time l i n e s f o r r e -employment, they d i d not a s s o c i a t e l o n g term unemployment w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r p o i n t on the emotional spectrum which they used t o d e s c r i b e the unemployment experience. The r e s e a r c h e r s d i d however, conclude w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of the i n d i v i d u a l who e x p e r i e n c e s p r o l o n g e d unemployment as someone c h a r a c t e r i z e d by p e r i o d s of apathy a l t e r n a t i n g w i t h anger, sadness and s p o r a d i c optimism, few h a b i t s o f r e g u l a r s t r u c t u r e d a c t i v i t i e s , few meaningful p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s and dominant f e e l i n g s o f v i c t i m i z a t i o n , l a c k of p e r s o n a l power and low s e l f worth (Borgen e t a l , 1984, p. 67). Another r e s e a r c h e r has i d e n t i f i e d t h a t the emotional s t r e s s on the i n d i v i d u a l which i s brought on by unemployment, has a l s o been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h subsequent i n c r e a s e s i n d r i n k i n g , w i f e and c h i l d abuse, crime and s u i c i d e (Borrero, 1980). D i s t r i b u t i o n Among P o p u l a t i o n Groups The Royal Commission on E q u a l i t y i n Employment under Judge A b e l l a was an acknowledgement t h a t c e r t a i n members and groups w i t h i n s o c i e t y compete u n e q u a l l y w i t h i n the l a b o u r market f o r - 25 -employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s . I t has s i m i l a r l y been r e c o g n i z e d t h a t c e r t a i n members o f s o c i e t y bear a g r e a t e r burden o f l o n g term unemployment. A r e c e n t B r i t i s h study examined a range o f p e r s o n a l f a c t o r s which have o f t e n been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h long term unemployment; the s o - c a l l e d p e r s o n a l disadvantage e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h i s phenomenon. I t found t h a t i n a b s o l u t e terms v e r y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n s o f the l o n g term unemployed r e p o r t e d l a c k o f e d u c a t i o n a l q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and poor h e a l t h ; however, o c c u p a t i o n a l l e v e l , work h i s t o r y and e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l d i d not g e n e r a l l y d i s t i n g u i s h the lo n g term unemployed from the working p o p u l a t i o n (White, 1983). There i s evidence from a re c e n t r e p o r t o f l o n g term unemployment i n B r i t i s h Columbia, t h a t c e r t a i n demographic groups w i t h i n s o c i e t y share a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e burden o f l o n g term unemployment (Power, 1986). T h i s study used Unemployment Insurance data o f i n d i v i d u a l s who had been on c l a i m f o r 50 weeks, t o i d e n t i f y t h a t the female share o f l o n g term unemployment r o s e from 1983 t o 1985 by 19.4%. T a b l e 8 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t although women accounted f o r 41.5% of the l a b o u r f o r c e i n 1983, they experienced 44.3% of a l l l o n g term unemployment g r e a t e r than one year i n d u r a t i o n . In 1985, they r e p r e s e n t e d 42.5% of the la b o u r f o r c e , e x p e r i e n c e d 42.3% o f a l l unemployment and 48.9% of long term unemployment. Without i d e n t i f y i n g cause, i t i s ev i d e n t t h a t women are more l i k e l y t o be a f f e c t e d by l o n g term unemployment than men, and t h a t t h i s tendency i n c r e a s e d from the r e c e s s i o n t o the r e c o v e r y p e r i o d . S i m i l a r l y , although youth have not been r e p r e s e n t e d i n the lo n g term unemployed i n the same p r o p o r t i o n as i n the o v e r a l l unemployed, t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n the l o n g term unemployed i n c r e a s e d from 12.6% i n 1983 t o 15.7% i n 1985. Table 8 Re p r e s e n t a t i o n o f Women and Youth  Among Long Term Unemployed  B r i t i s h Columbia and Yukon (Percentage) Women 1983 1985 Youth 1983 1985 Labour Force A l l Unemployed Long Term Unemployed 41.5 38.5 44. 3 42.5 42.3 48.9 22.8 21.3 38.5 32.0 12.6 15.7 Note: Youth c o n s i s t s o f i n d i v i d u a l s 15 t o 24 y e a r s . Source: An A n a l y s i s o f the Long-term Unemployed i n t h e BC/Yukon Region, C. Powers, CEIC, 1986. In a d d i t i o n t o demographic groups, t h i s same r e p o r t by Powers i d e n t i f i e d t h a t c e r t a i n o c c u p a t i o n a l groups a re over r e p r e s e n t e d among the lo n g term unemployed. C l e r i c a l o c c u p a t i o n s t o g e t h e r accounted f o r 22.4% o f the l o n g term unemployed i n 1985 w h i l e these occupations r e p r e s e n t e d o n l y 16.5% o f a l l employment. T h i s was an i n c r e a s e from 21.8% two years e a r l i e r . S i m i l a r l y , s e r v i c e o c c u p a t i o n s accounted f o r - 27 -17.2% of a l l l o n g term unemployment w h i l e r e p r e s e n t i n g o n l y 14.9% of a l l employment. Economic and S o c i a l Impact The consequences of unemployment on i n d i v i d u a l s , t h a t were c i t e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s chapter, suggest t h a t the l o n g term unemployed are l i k e l y t o be h i g h consumers o f s o c i a l s e r v i c e s . However, the impact of unemployment goes w e l l beyond the sum of i t s e f f e c t on i n d i v i d u a l s , f a m i l i e s and groups w i t h i n s o c i e t y , t o a f f e c t the economic and s o c i a l w e l l b e i n g o f t h e c o u n t r y as a whole. Although the extent of l o s t p r o d u c t i o n i s d i f f i c u l t t o a s s e s s , the p r o d u c t i o n of goods and s e r v i c e s which i s foregone r e p r e s e n t s a s i g n i f i c a n t l o s s t o s o c i e t y as w e l l as t o the i n d i v i d u a l s who are without work (Borrero, 1981). At the s t a t e l e v e l t h e r e are c e r t a i n c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h unemployment. D i r e c t c o s t s i n c l u d e the Unemployment Insurance b e n e f i t s p a i d out, above the amount which employees and employers have c o n t r i b u t e d , as w e l l as the i n c r e a s e d s o c i a l s e r v i c e s t o i n d i v i d u a l s and f a m i l i e s a f f e c t e d by unemployment ( F r a s e r & S i n f i e l d , 1985). Both f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments e x p e r i e n c e a l o s s of tax revenue d i r e c t l y due t o lower incomes and i n d i r e c t l y through l o s t s a l e s t a x revenues as a r e s u l t of foregone consumption (Borerro, 1981). Reduced consumer spending means lower demand f o r consumer goods which e v e n t u a l l y c r e a t e s a f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n i n output through a r e v e r s e m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t w i t h i n the economy. The c y c l e c o n t i n u e s , as l o s t output can l e a d t o reduced revenues and lower - 28 -investment on the p a r t of b u s i n e s s which e v e n t u a l l y reduces p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y w i t h i n the economy. I n c r e a s e d l e v e l s o f l o n g term unemployment accentuate t h i s c y c l e . As the unemployed consume s a v i n g s , t h e s e funds are taken out o f the investment stream w i t h i n the economy and as more i n d i v i d u a l s r e s o r t t o p r o v i n c i a l income a s s i s t a n c e a f t e r U l b e n e f i t s and s a v i n g s are exhausted, more d i r e c t c o s t s of l o n g term unemployment are t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e p r o v i n c i a l government l e v e l . The f e d e r a l government continues t o share 50% o f the c o s t of m a i n t a i n i n g these a b l e bodied unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s , under the p r o v i s i o n s o f the Canada A s s i s t a n c e P l a n . Governments at a l l l e v e l s are then f a c e d w i t h the dilemma of i n c r e a s e d demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s , w h i l e reduced p r o v i n c i a l revenues as a consequence o f t h i s same unemployment, r e s t r i c t the c a p a c i t y of the government t o respond t o the needs of the unemployed. Unemployment as a S o c i a l Issue From e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n i n t h i s chapter, i t i s c l e a r t h a t the consequences of unemployment, p a r t i c u l a r l y l o n g term unemployment, a f f e c t s o c i e t y a t many l e v e l s . Long term unemployment needs t o be r e c o g n i z e d not o n l y as a macro economic i s s u e but a l s o as a s o c i a l problem. S o c i a l problems are r e c o g n i z e d t o be time, p l a c e and context bound and by t h e i r v e r y d e f i n i t i o n , are p a r t i c u l a r s o c i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n s of r e a l i t y t h a t are w i d e l y shared and e v e n t u a l l y become i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d w i t h i n a s o c i e t y (Seidman & Rappaport, - 29 -1986). As s u b j e c t i v e c o n s t r u c t i o n s o f the r e a l world, problem d e f i n i t i o n s l i m i t the range of p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s and p r e s c r i b e the k i n d s o f s t r a t e g i e s a p p r o p r i a t e t o implement those s o l u t i o n s ( C a r t w r i g h t , 1973). I f the c a p a c i t y of the economy t o generate j o b s i s i n s u f f i c i e n t t o absorb the numbers of i n d i v i d u a l s d i s p l a c e d by c y c l i c a l economic f a c t o r s or a f f e c t e d by s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t s i n employment p a t t e r n s , why have a t t i t u d e s toward the unemployed f a i l e d t o a d j u s t t o t h i s new economic r e a l i t y ? The c h a l l e n g e t o the s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t i s t o re-examine our p o l i t i c a l - s o c i a l Z e i t g e i s t o f work t o i d e n t i f y whether as a society, we are l o c k e d i n a p a r t i c u l a r work c u l t u r e which i s no l o n g e r supported by our economic r e a l i t y . The v a l u e a t t a c h e d t o work w i t h i n our s o c i a l - p o l i t i c a l Z e i t g e i s t i s part o f our s o c i a l r e a l i t y . An exploration o f t h i s Z e i t g e i s t of work i s p r e r e q u i s i t e t o understanding j o b creation programs as a response t o l o n g term unemployment. The Meaning of Work Work has always been a means of p h y s i c a l s u r v i v a l , although t h e r e have been s o c i e t i e s i n which work was c o n s i d e r e d drudgery, demeaning and degrading (Macarov, 1980) . Under f e u d a l s o c i e t y a p o r t i o n o f the product of one 1s l a b o u r on the l a n d was exchanged f o r the s a f e t y o f f e r e d by the f e u d a l l o r d . The i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n transformed l a b o u r i n t o a commodity t o be bought and s o l d as one i n p u t of p r o d u c t i o n . I t was Adam Smith's l a i s s e z -f a i r e c o n c e p t i o n of the economy which a s s o c i a t e d an i n d i v i d u a l ' s - 30 -p u r s u i t o f s e l f - i n t e r e s t w i t h a h e a l t h y economy and m e r c a n t i l i s m subsequently a s s o c i a t e d a h e a l t h y economy w i t h the wealth o f a n a t i o n r a t h e r than the w e l f a r e o f the i n d i v i d u a l . These i d e o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s are e v i d e n t today as governments con t i n u e t o i d e n t i f y the w e l l being o f a c o u n t r y w i t h economic i n d i c a t o r s such as gro s s n a t i o n a l product (GNP) r a t h e r than measures o f s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n . R e l i g i o n has a l s o i n f l u e n c e d a t t i t u d e s toward work (Macarov, 1980). P r i m i t i v e C h r i s t i a n i t y p o s i t i v e l y r e i n f o r c e d work a t t i t u d e s through the s h a r i n g o f what one produced w i t h one's needy b r o t h e r s and e a r l y C a t h o l i c i s m d i g n i f i e d l a b o u r o f the r e l i g i o u s o r i n t e l l e c t u a l k i n d . However, one o f the most s i g n i f i c a n t r e l i g i o u s impacts began i n 1517 w i t h the work o f M a r t i n Luther. I n i t i a l l y , the n o t i o n o f p r e d e s t i n a t i o n weakened the e a r l i e r r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n t h a t one must work hard t o h e l p one's needy b r o t h e r s . However, Luther's view t h a t work of any k i n d was a s e r v i c e t o God, endowed work w i t h r e l i g i o u s d i g n i t y . Work became a v o c a t i o n , a c a l l i n g commanded by God and t o not work t o the e x t e n t o f one's a b i l i t y was t o s i n . C a l v i n i s m r e i n f o r c e d t h i s n o t i o n t h a t t o succeed a t work was a d i v i n e duty and t h a t success was i t s e l f p r oof o f s a l v a t i o n . T h i s dominant v a l u e o f work which emerged from the r e f o r m a t i o n c a r r i e d i n t o the p e r i o d o f the i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n . In North America, the p a t t e r n of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and immigration c o n t i n u e d t o i n f l u e n c e the v a l u e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h work (Shostak, 1982). Massive waves of European immigrants i n the l a t t e r h a l f o f the 1800's c r e a t e d l a r g e numbers o f urban - 31 -poor anxious t o work d e s p i t e c o n d i t i o n s which had become a c c o r d i n g t o Shostak, more o p p r e s s i v e , more demanding and more demeaning than ever b e f o r e (Shostak, 1982). The ex p e r i e n c e o f the d e p r e s s i o n p r o f o u n d l y i n f l u e n c e d the meaning of work. Power began t o s h i f t t o the workers i n the 30's through f a c t o r y wide i n d u s t r i a l unionism. F a i t h i n the i n v i s i b l e hand of the market p l a c e was s h a t t e r e d a l o n g w i t h the myth t h a t hard work would be rewarded. What emerged was a new consensus i n f a v o u r o f unprecedented government i n t e r v e n t i o n i n the market p l a c e and the b e g i n n i n g of a whole range o f government mechanisms t o p r o v i d e a s a f e t y net o f s o c i a l s e c u r i t y f o r the o r d i n a r y c i t i z e n (Shostak, 1982). The economic t h e o r y o f f e r e d by John Maynard Keynes, l e g i t i m i z e d t h i s government i n t e r v e n t i o n , as a way t o s t i m u l a t e aggregate demand and prevent the massive unemployment which had o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e d e p r e s s i o n . I t was not u n t i l the 1980's t h a t the consensus i n f a v o u r of t h i s i n t e r v e n t i o n began t o wean under n e o - c o n s e r v a t i v e governments guided by supply s i d e economic t h e o r i e s . S o c i a l Welfare L e g i s l a t i o n P r e v a i l i n g a t t i t u d e s toward work have had s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e on the p o l i c i e s which have evolved t o d e a l w i t h those members o f s o c i e t y without work. A b r i e f review o f some of these p o l i c i e s p r e s e n t s another r e f l e c t i o n of the p o l i t i c a l -s o c i a l Z e i t g e i s t of work. - 32 -In Canada, a t the time of c o n f e d e r a t i o n , p r a c t i c e s f o r d e a l i n g w i t h the poor were a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h i n the f o u r founding p r o v i n c e s based on t r a d i t i o n s brought by immigrants and responses t o c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n the c o l o n i e s . The i n f l u e n c e of the B r i t i s h E l i z a b e t h a n Poor Law (1601) was e v i d e n t i n a t t i t u d e s toward the poor i n Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick (Guest, 1980), and a l s o e v i d e n t i n the Anglo-European t r a d i t i o n s brought t o B r i t i s h Columbia (Clague, D i l l , Seebaran & Warf, 1984). F i n a n c i n g and p r o v i s i o n f o r the poor under the Poor Laws was the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f t h e l o c a l government. The d i s t i n c t i o n between employable and unemployable c a t e g o r i e s was c e n t r a l , w i t h the former c o n s i d e r e d unworthy of a s s i s t a n c e w h i l e the l a t t e r were d e s e r v i n g due t o age, s i c k n e s s or d i s a b i l i t y . A s s i s t a n c e which was o f f e r e d was minimal and below t h a t which a worker might earn elsewhere. W i t h i n Upper Canada t h i s Poor Law t r a d i t i o n was r e j e c t e d and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the poor s h i f t e d t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l , the f a m i l y and p r i v a t e p h i l a n t h r o p y (Splane, c i t e d i n Guest, 1980) . W i t h i n Lower Canada, the church assumed r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r h e a l t h , e d u c a t i o n and w e l f a r e under the French C a t h o l i c t r a d i t i o n . A t t i t u d e s toward the poor d u r i n g t h i s c o l o n i a l p e r i o d , g e n e r a l l y r e f l e c t e d the u n d e r l y i n g b e l i e f t h a t p o v e r t y was the r e s u l t o f p e r s o n a l f a i l i n g o r c h a r a c t e r f l a w (Guest, 1980). These i n d i v i d u a l i s t i c e x p l a n a t i o n s of p o v e r t y are c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a t r a d i t i o n a l l i b e r a l i d e o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e based on i n d i v i d u a l i s m and the supremacy of the f r e e market c a p i t a l i s t system. - 33 -The u n d e r l y i n g a t t i t u d e s toward work and p o v e r t y t h a t p r e v a i l e d a t the time of c o n f e d e r a t i o n i n f l u e n c e d the s o c i a l s e c u r i t y programs which emerged i n Canada t o support i n d i v i d u a l s unable t o p r o v i d e f o r themselves and t h e i r f a m i l i e s through work. Minimal r e l i e f c ontinued t o be p r o v i d e d on an emergency b a s i s a t the m u n i c i p a l l e v e l and through p r i v a t e c h a r i t i e s up u n t i l World War I (Guest, 1980) . The f i r s t break from t h i s p a t t e r n o f r e l i e f d e l i v e r e d as a s s i s t a n c e i n k i n d , came through the O n t a r i o Workman's Compensation A c t of 1914. T h i s e a r l y income s e c u r i t y l e g i s l a t i o n was, however, d i r e c t e d toward s u c c e s s f u l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the l a b o u r f o r c e who e x p e r i e n c e d an i n t e r r u p t i o n of e a r n i n g s through a c c i d e n t s a t work. The f i r s t modern p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e programs were implemented out of p u b l i c concern f o r the worthy poor; mothers who a t t h a t time, were more f r e q u e n t l y c o n s i d e r e d o u t s i d e the l a b o u r f o r c e (Mothers' Pension A c t of 192 0 i n B r i t i s h Columbia) as w e l l as pensions f o r d i s a b l e d v e t e r a n s and the b l i n d . The p e n s i o n concept was a d e l i b e r a t e attempt t o minimize the stigma a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e c e i v i n g f i n a n c i a l a i d f o r these worthy, unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s . The Employment and S o c i a l Insurance A c t o f 1935 was the f i r s t l e g i s l a t i v e evidence t h a t unemployment was b e i n g r e d e f i n e d from a p e r s o n a l problem of l o c a l concern, t o a socio-economic i s s u e o f n a t i o n a l importance. T h i s p a t t e r n of l e g i s l a t i o n i n response t o p u b l i c concern f o r r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t term i n t e r r u p t i o n s i n e a r n i n g s of the working p o p u l a t i o n and those t r a d i t i o n a l l y c o n s i d e r e d o u t s i d e the l a b o u r f o r c e , c o n t i n u e d throughout World War I I . Keynesian macroeconomic t h e o r y l e g i t i m i z e d s o c i a l expenditures such as f a m i l y allowances and Unemployment Insurance programs, because o f t h e i r o v e r a l l impact on employment and economic s e c u r i t y through a m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t (Courchene, 1987). T h i s understanding combined w i t h r e l a t i v e p r o s p e r i t y d u r i n g the t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s a f t e r the war e s t a b l i s h e d a f i s c a l environment conducive t o t h e development of the w e l f a r e s t a t e which c h a r a c t e r i z e s most i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s today. D e s p i t e the e v o l u t i o n of the w e l f a r e s t a t e , p r e v a i l i n g a t t i t u d e s toward the a b l e bodied, l o n g e r term unemployed appear t o have changed v e r y l i t t l e . The n e o - c o n s e r v a t i v e i d e o l o g i c a l s h i f t o f governments i n the 1970's and the r e c e s s i o n i n t h e 1980's appear t o have c r e a t e d a resurgence of t h e p r i n c i p l e s of the B r i t i s h Poor Law. Amendments t o the B r i t i s h Columbia income s e c u r i t y l e g i s l a t i o n i n 1982, p r o v i d e evidence o f t h i s i d e o l o g i c a l s h i f t . Changes under the Guaranteed A v a i l a b l e Income f o r Need (GAIN) A c t e s s e n t i a l l y r e - e s t a b l i s h e d a two t i e r e d income support system f o r the worthy and unworthy poor, by r e d u c i n g b e n e f i t s f o r the employable c a t e g o r y of r e c i p i e n t s and imposing i n c r e a s e d j o b s e a r c h requirements on t h i s group (Harper & Hurst, 1983). The employable group was a l s o expanded t o i n c l u d e mothers w i t h one dependent c h i l d over s i x months of age and mothers w i t h two dependent c h i l d r e n over twelve years of age. With a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of mothers of young c h i l d r e n v o l u n t a r i l y p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e , w e l f a r e a u t h o r i t i e s are d i s c o u r a g i n g more mothers w i t h p r e - s c h o o l and s c h o o l aged c h i l d r e n , from c o l l e c t i n g b e n e f i t s by v i r t u e o f b e i n g unemployable due t o f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . In summary, the a n a l y s i s suggests t h a t our h i s t o r y of work and the s o c i a l s e c u r i t y l e g i s l a t i o n which has e v o l v e d t o d e a l w i t h i n d i v i d u a l s without work, have each h e l p e d t o m a i n t a i n the preeminence o f work w i t h i n s o c i e t y . To quote the r e c e n t Forget Commission, a j o b i s the a x i s along which th e p a t t e r n of l i f e i s o r g a n i z e d (Forget Commission, 1986). T h i s ' Z e i t g e i s t 1 of work, the i n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e of long term unemployment and i t s r e c o g n i z e d consequences a t many l e v e l s w i t h i n s o c i e t y , c l e a r l y e s t a b l i s h l o n g term unemployment as a s o c i a l i s s u e o f major concern i n the 1980's. The c u r r e n t employment i n i t i a t i v e s of the f e d e r a l government which w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter Two o f t h i s t h e s i s , appear t o acknowledge s t r u c t u r a l causes of unemployment by a d d r e s s i n g i s s u e s o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change, l o n g term unemployment and the p a r t i c u l a r employment needs of disadvantages groups w i t h i n s o c i e t y . A r e c e n t f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l i n i t i a t i v e t o i n t e g r a t e l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s i n t o the l a b o u r f o r c e , t h a t p r o v i d e d a g r e a t d e a l of the impetus behind t h e r e s e a r c h c o n t a i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s , w i l l be reviewed i n Chapter Three. The t i m i n g of t h i s j o i n t i n i t i a t i v e when o v e r a l l l e v e l s o f unemployment remain h i g h , i s f u r t h e r evidence o f t h e s t r e n g t h of the v a l u e o f work w i t h i n s o c i e t y . Even though economic a n a l y s t s f o r e c a s t t h a t unemployment w i l l remain h i g h throughout the decade (Pr o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1987), t h e r e appears t o be i s v e r y l i t t l e consensus f o r a r e s t r u c t u r i n g o f work and employment p a t t e r n s toward a s o c i e t y which i s l e s s j o b - f i x a t e d i n i t s v a l u e s , s t r u c t u r e and systems. Proponents of community economic development suggest t h a t more meaningful s o l u t i o n s t o unemployment can be r e a l i z e d through g r a s s r o o t s o r g a n i z a t i o n and t h a t t h e s e community i n i t i a t i v e s are more c o n s i s t e n t w i t h today's economic r e a l i t y (Ross and Usher, 1986). There may be a p o i n t i n time, when t h e r e w i l l be a t a p e r i n g o f f o f t h i s employment s o c i e t y i n which work i s the f i n a n c i a l and s o c i a l l i n c h p i n o f a person's l i f e (Handy, 1984). I f our work Z e i t g e i s t e v o l v e s i n a d i r e c t i o n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h an apparent l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y of the conomy t o generate s u f f i c i e n t employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s , the employment i n i t i a t i v e s o f government may e v e n t u a l l y h e l p the l o n g term unemployed adapt t o t h e i r unemployment. Meanwhile, although t h e r e i s evidence o f growing support f o r these t r e n d s , t r a d i t i o n a l d i r e c t job c r e a t i o n remains a major t h r u s t under the employment i n i t i a t i v e s of the f e d e r a l govern-ment. The t a r g e t i n g o f job c r e a t i o n programs on t h o se i n d i v i d u a l s most disadvantaged i n the p o s t - r e c e s s i o n l a b o u r market acknowledges the s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o l o n g term unemployment as w e l l as the l i m i t e d f i s c a l c a p a c i t y o f the government t o respond t o o v e r a l l h i g h l e v e l s o f unemployment. T h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t was i n i t i a t e d t o p r o v i d e e a r l y feedback, i n one geographic area of Vancouver, on the outcome of a f e d e r a l j o b c r e a t i o n program t a r g e t e d on t h e l o n g term unemployed. The program i s the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job - 37 -program t h a t w i l l be reviewed i n Chapter Two, as one f e d e r a l employment i n i t i a t i v e under the Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y t h a t was i n t r o d u c e d by the C o n s e r v a t i v e government i n 1985. Chapter Three w i l l i d e n t i f y the p a r t i c u l a r agency and academic co n t e x t s i n which the r e s e a r c h was undertaken, and review the u t i l i z a t i o n focus i m p l i c i t i n the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . The f o u r t h c h a p t e r w i l l review the s p e c i f i c i s s u e s t h a t were chosen f o r study, under a c o v a r i a n c e , c o n c e p t u a l r e s e a r c h model. The r e s e a r c h methodology w i l l then be i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter F i v e , b e f o r e t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the f i n d i n g s i n Chapter S i x . The f i n a l c h a p t e r , Chapter Seven, w i l l d i s c u s s the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s f o r program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and then r e t u r n t o the broad unemployment i s s u e s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h i s i n t r o d u c t o r y chapter, b e f o r e i t concludes w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n of p o s s i b l e p u b l i c p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s from the study and s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . - 38 -CHAPTER I I THE PROGRAM RESPONSE F e d e r a l Responses t o Unemployment The responses of the f e d e r a l government t o unemployment f a l l i n t o two g e n e r a l c a t e g o r i e s : i n i t i a t i v e s t o s t i m u l a t e employment, e i t h e r d i r e c t l y through j o b c r e a t i o n programs, o r i n d i r e c t l y through economic programs of the Department of Re g i o n a l and I n d u s t r i a l Expansion and i n i t i a t i v e s t o improve the f u n c t i o n i n g of the l a b o u r market. These l a t t e r l a b o u r market adjustment programs and d i r e c t job c r e a t i o n programs are p r i m a r i l y a d m i n i s t e r e d through the programs o f the Employment and Immigration Commission. T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l e x p l o r e the l a b o u r economic t h e o r y behind job c r e a t i o n programs. I t w i l l e x p l a i n how j o b c r e a t i o n programs work as w e l l as the impact of t a r g e t e d j o b c r e a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s on the unemployment p a t t e r n s i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter One. T h i s t h e o r y focuses on job c r e a t i o n programs as demand-side employment i n i t i a t i v e s and i s i n c l u d e d as background t o the study, even though subsequent c h a p t e r s w i l l i d e n t i f y t h a t t h i s p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t focused on s u p p l y - s i d e r e s e a r c h i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o program p a r t i c i p a n t s and program a c t i v i t y . - 39 -H i s t o r y of Job C r e a t i o n Job c r e a t i o n programs i n Canada began as economic p o l i c y responses o f the f e d e r a l government t o unemployment d u r i n g the d e p r e s s i o n and r e c u r r e d as w i n t e r works p r o j e c t s t o a l l e v i a t e s e a sonal unemployment i n the 1950's. C y c l i c a l unemployment was the focus o f community based i n i t i a t i v e s o f t h e 1970's under the L o c a l I n i t i a t i v e s and L o c a l Employment A s s i s t a n c e programs. These were designed t o complement Keynesian economic i n i t i a t i v e s which were the primary t o o l used by government t o counter the r e g u l a r f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the bu s i n e s s c y c l e . A t times j o b c r e a t i o n programs have been s e l e c t i v e l y implemented t o address r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t i e s . During the 1970's, many OECD c o u n t r i e s and Canada experimented w i t h u s i n g the t a x a t i o n system t o p r o v i d e i n c e n t i v e f o r employers t o c r e a t e j o b s . T a x - b a s e d - i n c e n t i v e programs encouraged p r o f i t a b l e c o r p o r a t i o n s t o p a r t i c i p a t e and t h i s s h i f t e d t he emphasis from p u b l i c s e c t o r t o c o r p o r a t e s e c t o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Meanwhile the r e s u l t s o f r e s e a r c h on employment and t r a i n i n g programs i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t he Work I n c e n t i v e (WIN) program and l a t e r workfare programs, i d e n t i f i e d t h a t the more s u c c e s s f u l programs i n terms o f employment outcomes, were job-based w i t h t r a i n i n g components d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o an employment s i t u a t i o n ( O e t t i n g , Cole & M i l l e r , 1974 and Hudgins, 1986). These f a c t o r s p r o v i d e d impetus f o r government t o p l a c e g r e a t e r emphasis on p r i v a t e s e c t o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n both t r a i n i n g and employment programs. - 40 -Current Employment I n i t i a t i v e s In 1985, the M i n i s t e r of Employment and Immigration, F l o r a MacDonald, announced a r e d e s i g n of the government's l a b o u r market programs under the Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y (CJS). Although these i n i t i a t i v e s were h e r a l d e d as a complete r e d e s i g n of government p o l i c y , i t i s more a c c u r a t e t o i d e n t i f y them as a b a s i c r e o r i e n t a t i o n , i n r e c o g n i t i o n of the s t r u c t u r a l employment p a t t e r n s which had become e v i d e n t and toward an i d e o l o g i c a l l y p r e d i c t a b l e , p r i v a t e s e c t o r o r i e n t a t i o n of the C o n s e r v a t i v e government. The M i n i s t e r h e r s e l f , s t a t e d t h a t : I n s t e a d of short-term, c y c l i c a l problems, i t addresses the fundamental s t r u c t u r a l i s s u e s of the economy and l a b o u r market development. Job t r a i n i n g , j o b c r e a t i o n and economic development are l i n k e d t o p r o v i d e Canadians w i t h v a l u a b l e s k i l l s , p r a c t i c a l work experi e n c e and meaningful employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1985a). The Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by c l o s e r c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h p r o v i n c i a l governments and w i t h the p r i v a t e s e c t o r than r e c e n t f e d e r a l employment i n i t i a t i v e s . C o o p e ration and f l e x i b i l i t y appear t o be r e c o g n i z e d as key i n g r e d i e n t s i n an employment p o l i c y designed t o respond t o r a p i d t e c h n o l o g i c a l change, s h i f t i n g w o r l d markets and new s k i l l development. O v e r r i d i n g these employment i n i t i a t i v e s i s a s t r o n g o r i e n t a t i o n toward the employment disadvantaged, p a r t i c u l a r l y those t a r g e t groups i d e n t i f i e d i n the A b e l l a Report ( E q u a l i t y i n Employment, 1984) on employment e q u i t y (women, n a t i v e s , d i s a b l e d persons and v i s i b l e m i n o r i t i e s ) , youth and the long term unemployed. T h i s o r i e n t a t i o n i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h an apparent d e c i s i o n by the - 41 -M i n i s t e r t h a t the most needy of the unemployed sh o u l d r e c e i v e p r i o r i t y , i n a c l i m a t e of government r e s t r a i n t t h a t would p r a c t i c a l l y l i m i t program access (Hayles, 1986). The I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job Program Job Development i s one of the s i x major program components under the Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y and the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program i s one o p t i o n under t h a t program. Job Development i s a job c r e a t i o n program desi g n e d t o a s s i s t the r e - i n t e g r a t i o n of the long term unemployed, i n t o the l a b o u r market through a mix of s k i l l s t r a i n i n g and work e x p e r i e n c e i n a s p e c i f i c j o b . I t i s t a r g e t e d on i n d i v i d u a l s who are unemployed and have been j o b l e s s but w i l l i n g t o work, 24 out of the p r e v i o u s 30 weeks, and who are employment disadvantaged due t o s o c i a l o r c u l t u r a l employment b a r r i e r s . O p e r a t i o n a l procedures f o r the program i d e n t i f y i t as c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s o f the Employment and Immigration Commission. These o b j e c t i v e s are t o improve the f u n c t i o n i n g o f the l a b o u r market by improving the i n d i v i d u a l 1 s long term employment p r o s p e c t s and t o augment the s k i l l base of Canada's human r e s o u r c e s t o meet the needs o f the l a b o u r market (EIC, Job Development O p e r a t i o n a l Procedures, P a r t I, September 20, 1985). The I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job (ISJ) o p t i o n of the Job Development Program i s adm i n i s t e r e d a t the l o c a l Canada Employment Centre l e v e l . The program i s designed as an employer-based s u b s i d y p a i d d i r e c t l y t o the employer as a - 42 -percentage o f the wage of r e c r u i t e d workers. P r i v a t e s e c t o r , n o n - p r o f i t and m u n i c i p a l employers are e l i g i b l e t o p a r t i c i p a t e . Under the program, gr o s s wages are reimbursed a t l e v e l s which commence a t 80%, d e c l i n e t o 50% f o r the g r e a t e r p e r i o d of s u b s i d i z a t i o n and t a p e r o f f t o 25% f o r the l a t t e r p e r i o d o f time. Employers are a l s o e l i g i b l e t o r e c e i v e d i r e c t f i n a n c i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s toward c a p i t a l c o s t s and d i r e c t i n s t r u c t i o n a l or t r a i n i n g course c o s t s . Appendix A i s a f a c t sheet which d e s c r i b e s the program i n more d e t a i l . In b e h a v i o r a l terms, the I S J i s designed t o modify the work environment and t o a l l o w the employee time t o adapt t o the work environment through the a c q u i s i t i o n of employment s k i l l s as w e l l as j o b s p e c i f i c s k i l l s . S i m i l a r t o supported work programs i n i t i a t e d i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , i t i s designed t o g i v e the l o n g term unemployed who are employment disadvantaged, an o p p o r t u n i t y t o h o l d a j o b , succeed a t a job and t o move e v e n t u a l l y i n t o u n s u b s i d i z e d employment (Masters and Maynard, 1980). These supported work environments are designed t o have a p o s i t i v e employment impact on the c l i e n t through some combination o f : 0 improved work h a b i t s ° improved o c c u p a t i o n s p e c i f i c s k i l l s ° a b e t t e r , more r e c e n t work r e c o r d t o p r e s e n t t o p r o s p e c t i v e employers ° placement e f f e c t s of program sponsors, i n t h i s case the Canada Employment Centre As i n d i v i d u a l j o b s which are s u b s i d i z e d , the I S J o p t i o n of the Job Development Program does not o f f e r peer group support f o r p a r t i c i p a n t s . The program concept r e l i e s on the support of - 43 -empathetic s u p e r v i s o r s on-the-job t o a s s i s t the c l i e n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the more c r i t i c a l e a r l y weeks o f the c l i e n t ' s r e t u r n t o a work environment. What i s the i n c e n t i v e f o r employers t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n the program? Employment s u b s i d i e s c r e a t e jobs by l o w e r i n g the c o s t of l a b o u r r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r i n p u t s of p r o d u c t i o n , encouraging the s u b s t i t u t i o n of l a b o u r f o r c a p i t a l . T h i s i n c r e a s e s the demand f o r l a b o u r . I f the lower c o s t of p r o d u c t i o n due t o reduced l a b o u r c o s t s , i s passed on t o the consumer through lower c o s t s , economic t h e o r y p r e d i c t s t h a t product demand w i l l i n c r e a s e . T h i s i n c r e a s e d product demand may then l e a d t o i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n which i t s e l f may generate more j o b s . As a j o b c r e a t i o n program, the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program i s a m a r g i n a l employment or flow s u b s i d y p a i d as a p r o p o r t i o n of i n c r e a s e d wage c o s t s . T h i s c o n t r a s t s w i t h s t o c k or g e n e r a l wage s u b s i d i e s which are p a i d i n r e l a t i o n t o t o t a l or i n c r e a s e d numbers o f employees above a base l e v e l o f employment. (Rajan, 1985). Haveman has i d e n t i f i e d t h a t the macro-economic o b j e c t i v e of m a r g i n a l employment s u b s i d i e s i s t o p r o t e c t aggregate employment d u r i n g r e c e s s i o n (Haveman, 1980). As such, t h e s e s u b s i d i e s are c o u n t e r - c y c l i c a l employment measures. The o t h e r o b j e c t i v e of m a r g i n a l employment programs i s t h e i r micro-economic impact on the improvement of the o p e r a t i o n of the l a b o u r market, or lab o u r market adjustment o b j e c t i v e s . The s t r u c t u r e o f employment i s a l t e r e d toward i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n of low s k i l l o r hard t o employ c a t e g o r i e s of labour, promoting more equal access t o employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r disadvantaged groups. T h i s s t r u c t u r a l employment f u n c t i o n i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f one sub-group of marg i n a l employment s u b s i d i e s , t h e t a r g e t e d employment subsidy. The I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program i s a marginal r e c r u i t m e n t s u b s i d y t a r g e t e d on the l o n g term unemployed. T h i s k i n d o f a t a r g e t e d flow subsidy reduces the c o s t o f employing the t a r g e t group r e l a t i v e t o non-target group members, i n a d d i t i o n t o l o w e r i n g the c o s t of la b o u r r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t i o n . As such, the I S J t h e r e f o r e addresses both the s t r u c t u r a l and c y c l i c a l c a t e g o r i e s o f unemployment i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter One. Impact o f Ma r g i n a l Employment S u b s i d i e s The e f f e c t on i n f l a t i o n o f t a r g e t e d , m a r g i n a l employment s u b s i d i e s i s minimal as l o n g as the t a r g e t e d groups have s u b s t a n t i a l unemployment or the supply o f l a b o u r among t a r g e t group member exceeds demand. With r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e b a r g a i n i n g power, employment can be i n c r e a s e d without upward p r e s s u r e on wages. T a r g e t i n g wage s u b s i d i e s on the l o n g term unemployed has the added advantage o f p l a c i n g wages i n the hands of a p o p u l a t i o n group w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p r o p e n s i t y t o spend which w i l l t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n c r e a s e demand, i n f l u e n c e output and p o s s i b l y generate a d d i t i o n a l employment. Economists such as Haveman and Palmer (1980), Deaken & P r a t t e n (1982) and Burdett & Hool (1980) have a n a l y z e d the impact which mar g i n a l employment s u b s i d i e s have under v a r i o u s - 45 -economic c o n d i t i o n s . I t i s c l e a r t h a t the impact o f a subs i d y depends, q u a l i t a t i v e l y and q u a n t i t a t i v e l y , on a s p e c t s o f the economic environment beyond j u s t the unemployment l e v e l of the t a r g e t group (Haveman, 1980) . The employment impact on the t a r g e t group i s g r e a t e s t when the product market i s t i g h t ( i . e . when product demand i s h i g h r e l a t i v e t o the a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y ) , and when both the t a r g e t , i n t h i s case the l o n g term unemployed, and no n - t a r g e t group l a b o u r markets are s l a c k ( i . e . when the supply o f l a b o u r exceeds the a v a i l a b l e l a b o u r demand). When the product market i s s l a c k and both the t a r g e t and non t a r g e t group employment markets are s l a c k , B u r d e t t and Hool (1980) found t h a t a s u b s i d y would b e n e f i t the t a r g e t market a t the expense o f t h e primary, non t a r g e t group. The p r i c e i n c e n t i v e f o r f i r m s t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h i s l a t t e r economic c l i m a t e , r e s u l t s from the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f employment, not from an i n c r e a s e i n the o v e r a l l l e v e l o f employment. T h i s i s known as the s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t of a subsidy, whereby t a r g e t group employment i s promoted a t the expense of non-ta r g e t groups. Recruitment s u b s i d i e s which a t t a c h a s u b s i d y t o p a r t i c u l a r employees, such as the I S J , a l r e a d y c a r r y a h i g h e r s u b s t i t u t i o n r i s k than s u b s i d i e s p a i d as marg i n a l increments on employment above an o v e r a l l base employment l e v e l . The i m p l i c a t i o n f o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r employment i n i t i a t i v e i s t h a t the economic c o n d i t i o n s i n product markets, may i n f l u e n c e the t r u e j o b c r e a t i o n e f f e c t of the I S J . T h i s t r u e j o b c r e a t i o n e f f e c t i s the net inc r e m e n t a l employment impact, measured as the - 46 -i n c r e a s e i n employment of the t a r g e t group l e s s any s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t . Although economic c o n d i t i o n s may t h e r e f o r e i n f l u e n c e the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of I S J as a c o u n t e r c y c l i c a l j o b c r e a t i o n program, the t a r g e t e d nature of the subs i d y means t h a t i t w i l l s t i l l have an impact on the s t r u c t u r a l nature o f unemployment e i t h e r by c r e a t i n g new jobs or by opening up e x i s t i n g jobs f o r t a r g e t group members. In summary, the l i t e r a t u r e c l e a r l y suggests t h a t economic f a c t o r s have an impact on programs l i k e the I S J . I t would appear, however, t h a t the s t r u c t u r a l (labour market adjustment) and the counter c y c l i c a l (job c r e a t i o n ) o b j e c t i v e s o f the program need not be t r a d e d o f f , but can be complementary under c e r t a i n economic circumstances. Chapter One i d e n t i f i e d the extent of the s t r u c t u r a l unemployment which i s e v i d e n t w i t h i n the B r i t i s h Columbia economy, a p r o v i n c i a l economy s t i l l r e c o v e r i n g from the impact of the 1981/82 r e c e s s i o n on c y c l i c a l unemployment. A t a r g e t e d m arginal employment subsidy, l i k e the I S J program, would appear t o be a l o g i c a l program c h o i c e f o r a government which has p l a c e d h i g h p r i o r i t y on c o n t r o l l i n g i n f l a t i o n , y e t r e c o g n i z e s the s t r u c t u r a l i n e q u i t i e s o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n the l a b o u r market. The c a u t i o n would be t o r e c o g n i z e from a program p o l i c y p e r s p e c t i v e , the l i m i t a t i o n s o f marginal employment s u b s i d i e s as j o b c r e a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s , w i t h i n c e r t a i n economic c o n d i t i o n s and t o monitor a program l i k e the I S J a c c o r d i n g l y . T h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t was an attempt t o do j u s t t h a t ; t o monitor the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of a f e d e r a l j o b c r e a t i o n program - 47 -which i s a d m i n i s t e r e d as a marginal employment s u b s i d y and t a r g e t e d on the l o n g term unemployed. While t h i s c hapter has i d e n t i f i e d the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program from a l a b o u r economics p e r s p e c t i v e , Chapter Three w i l l i d e n t i f y how t h i s p a r t i c u l a r r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t was i n i t i a t e d and the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o n t e x t i n which i t was conducted. I t w i l l become c l e a r t h a t the program m o n i t o r i n g which took p l a c e under t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t was not i n i t i a t e d from a program p o l i c y p e r s p e c t i v e , but from an o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h p e r s p e c t i v e i n an agency committed t o implementing f e d e r a l programs t o meet the employment needs o f i t s c l i e n t s . As such the p r o j e c t d i d not focus on the economic i s s u e s e x p l o r e d i n t h i s chapter. Instead, i t f o c u s e d on s u p p l y - s i d e i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o program i n p u t , program a c t i v i t y and employment outcomes f o r the t a r g e t group. The economic p e r s p e c t i v e of t h i s chapter has been i n c l u d e d t o r e c o g n i z e the d u a l c y c l i c a l and s t r u c t u r a l employment impact o f t a r g e t e d job c r e a t i o n programs l i k e the I S J . Chapter Four w i l l expand upon the s u p p l y - s i d e o r i e n t a t i o n of the I S J program by i d e n t i f y i n g i t w i t h i n the range o f s u p p l y - s i d e employment i n i t i a t i v e s which have been used h i s t o r i c a l l y t o a s s i s t unemployed groups t o compete more e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h i n the l a b o u r market. The i n t e n t i s t o r e c o g n i z e t h a t the s u p p l y - s i d e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s j o b c r e a t i o n program, achieved not o n l y through i t s t a r g e t e d nature but a l s o through the requirement t h a t sponsors t r a i n p a r t i c i p a n t s on-the-job i n s k i l l s r e l e v a n t t o the s u b s i d i z e d employment are complementary t o the demand-side o b j e c t i v e o f t r a d i t i o n a l j o b c r e a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s . - 48 -The o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h o r i e n t a t i o n of the p r o j e c t , focused the r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t y on s u p p l y - s i d e i s s u e s , i n the i n t e r e s t o f maximizing program r e t u r n on the intended l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t p o p u l a t i o n . The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o n t e x t i n which t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t was i n i t i a t e d , i s the substance of the f o l l o w i n g chapter, w h i l e chapters f o u r and f i v e e x p l i c a t e the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and methodology. - 49 -CHAPTER I I I INTERACTION OF PRACTICE AND RESEARCH The F i e l d P r a c t i c e S e t t i n g In May 1986, the p r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia s i g n e d a f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l agreement t o enhance the e m p l o y a b i l i t y o f s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . The agreement i s a f o u r c ornered employment i n i t i a t i v e , u n i t i n g the e f f o r t s o f the p r o v i n c i a l M i n i s t r y o f S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing and the M i n i s t r y o f Labour w i t h H e a l t h and Welfare Canada and the Employment and Immigration Commission (Hegen, 1986) . Under t h e agreement, each l e v e l o f government agreed t o d i v e r t $15 m i l l i o n p e r year f o r t h r e e y e a r s , from t h e Canada A s s i s t a n c e P l a n (CAP) and the Guaranteed A v a i l a b l e Income f o r Need (GAIN) A c t , t o c r e a t e jobs f o r s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . W i t h i n Employment and Immigration Canada, the funds were t o be d i r e c t e d through the programs o f t h e Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y . R e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the expenditure o f funds under the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job (ISJ) program i s d e c e n t r a l i z e d t o the l o c a l Canada Employment Centre l e v e l . In e a r l y September, Canada Employment Centres i n B r i t i s h Columbia were a d v i s e d o f t h i s f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l agreement and g i v e n a c c e s s t o s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n I S J program funds, t a r g e t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y on w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s . - 50 -S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s are i n i t i a l l y c l i e n t s of the p r o v i n c i a l government through the M i n i s t r y o f S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing. Management w i t h i n the E a s t H a s t i n g s Employment Centre r e c o g n i z e d from p r e v i o u s experience, t h a t j o i n t f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l program i n i t i a t i v e s w i t h a shared c l i e n t p o p u l a t i o n are d i f f i c u l t t o implement. Inter-agency c o o r d i n a t i o n i s always c h a l l e n g i n g , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h a t i n t e r - g o v e r n m e n t a l sphere. The E a s t Vancouver and North Burnaby areas s e r v e d by the E a s t H a s t i n g s Canada Employment Centre have a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n of s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . In June of 1986, the M i n i s t r y of S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing i d e n t i f i e d 4,658 employable income a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s r e g i s t e r e d i n the n i n e M i n i s t r y o f f i c e s l o c a t e d i n t h i s CEC area (CEIC, Memorandum September 19, 1986). F i f t y - f o u r p e r c e n t o f these r e c i p i e n t s had been on a s s i s t a n c e nine months or l o n g e r and were h i g h p r i o r i t y c a n d i d a t e s f o r t h i s j o i n t employment i n i t i a t i v e . T h i s f a c t combined w i t h a t r a d i t i o n o f c l i e n t - o r i e n t e d s e r v i c e t o i t s t a r g e t p o p u l a t i o n motivated CEC management t o r e - a l l o c a t e s t a f f r e s o u r c e s t o t h i s new i n i t i a t i v e . While e x p l o r i n g a range of f i e l d placement a l t e r n a t i v e s , the student was asked t o c o n s i d e r j o i n i n g the team o f two permanent, f u l l time s t a f f who had been assi g n e d t o t h i s p r o j e c t . The p r o j e c t p r e s e n t e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c h a l l e n g e s a p p r o p r i a t e f o r an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r a c t i c e s p e c i a l i z a t i o n w i t h i n the Masters of S o c i a l Work program. The a s s i g n e d s t a f f members were a s e n i o r employment c o u n s e l l o r and experienced program a d m i n i s t r a t o r . The management team was committed t o the p r o j e c t and agreed t o have the student j o i n the implementation team. The o p p o r t u n i t y appeared t o have the r i g h t i n g r e d i e n t s f o r a p r o d u c t i v e f i e l d placement and became the major focus of the s t u d e n t ' s a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f i e l d p r a c t i c e . The F i e l d P r a c t i c e as a Context f o r Research On two o c c a s i o n s i n September, meetings were h e l d w i t h the management team of the CEC t o i d e n t i f y the parameters of the r e s e a r c h / p r a c t i c e o p t i o n of the 1986/87 MSW program and t o e x p l o r e p r a c t i c a l problem areas w i t h i n the f i e l d which would be a p p r o p r i a t e f o r r e s e a r c h . Meanwhile, the implementation team f o r the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job i n i t i a t i v e f o r S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t s (ISJ/SAR), was b e g i n n i n g t o s t r u g g l e w i t h p r a c t i c a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o the e a r l y d e l i v e r y o f the program t o t h e t a r g e t group. S e v e r a l meetings were i n i t i a t e d w i t h l i n e workers and s u p e r v i s o r y s t a f f o f t h e M i n i s t r y of S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing t o i d e n t i f y how t h e program would be implemented on an o f f i c e by o f f i c e b a s i s . One of e a r l i e s t i s s u e s of concern t o employment c o u n s e l l o r s and l i n e s t a f f a t the MSSH was the s e l e c t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s f o r r e f e r r a l t o t h e program. The i n t e n t was t h a t c l i e n t s would market themselves t o employers, a t a s k not a l l l o n g term s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s would be a b l e t o do s u c c e s s f u l l y . The I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job (ISJ) - 52 -program i s a work experience program, on-the-job, i n an unsupported work environment. While i t does c o n t a i n an element of t r a i n i n g and employers understand t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e l y generous s u b s i d y l e v e l s are designed t o p r o v i d e time f o r the employee t o re-adapt t o a work environment and f o r t h e employer t o g r a d u a l l y impose p r o d u c t i v i t y and performance standards, i t i s o b v i o u s l y not a p p r o p r i a t e f o r a l l l o n g term, employable s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . Other more s u p p o r t i v e , s t r u c t u r e d work and t r a i n i n g environments might be more e f f e c t i v e as i n t e r i m s t e p s i n the s u c c e s s f u l i n t e g r a t i o n o f many hard core, l o n g term unemployed i n t o the labo u r f o r c e . I t became c l e a r , d u r i n g e a r l y meetings, t h a t a g r e a t e r knowledge of the e x p e r i e n c e of p r e v i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the I S J program might f a c i l i t a t e the s e l e c t i o n and r e f e r r a l o f c l i e n t s from the M i n i s t r y of S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing (MSSH) t o the employment c e n t r e as candidates f o r the ISJ/SAR i n i t i a t i v e . Were t h e r e c e r t a i n f a c t o r s t h a t might be used t o p r e d i c t more s u c c e s s f u l employment outcomes f o r program p a r t i c i p a n t s ? More s p e c i f i c a l l y , the I S J program experience o f l o n g term s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s as a sub-group of a l l p r e v i o u s I S J program p a r t i c i p a n t s , might h e l p the implementation team improve program outcomes f o r p a r t i c i p a n t s under the ISJ/SAR employment i n i t i a t i v e . Because the I S J program was r e l a t i v e l y new, the r e s u l t s of n a t i o n a l or r e g i o n a l f o l l o w up and program e v a l u a t i o n s i n c e the i n i t i a l implementation i n the f a l l o f 1985 were not a v a i l a b l e . I t t h e r e f o r e appeared l o g i c a l t o the student, agency management and t h e members of the implementation team t o s e l e c t - 53 -p r e v i o u s I S J program p a r t i c i p a n t s as the p o p u l a t i o n f o r study. The purpose of the r e s e a r c h would be t o c o l l e c t i n f o r m a t i o n on p r e v i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s , t h a t c o u l d be used p r i m a r i l y f o r I S J program development and improvement, i n a f o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s t y l e . U t i l i s a t i o n - F o c u s e d Research Model The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n was h e a v i l y i n f l u e n c e d by Patton's model of u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d e v a l u a t i o n . E v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h emerged out of the 1960's c r i t i c i s m of the American e d u c a t i o n system and the Great S o c i e t y programs of the O f f i c e of Equal Opportunity, as a mechanism f o r f a c i l i t a t i n g decisionmaking around program ex p e n d i t u r e s . While s c i e n t i f i c e v a l u a t i o n was a s i g n i f i c a n t advance over e a r l i e r e v a l u a t i o n s based on the s i n c e r i t y of the funders, the d e d i c a t i o n of s t a f f or the p o l i t i c a l e f f i c a c y of programs, the r e c o r d of the a c t u a l implementation of r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s remained poor. The u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d r e s e a r c h model o f Patton, acknowledges the p o l i t i c a l nature of the e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s from i n i t i a l c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n , d e s i g n and implementation stages through t o u l t i m a t e u t i l i z a t i o n of the f i n d i n g s (Patton, 1978). I t c a s t s the r e s e a r c h e r i n a r o l e committed t o answering the q u e s t i o n s of decisionmakers who are themselves, through t h e i r own i n t e r e s t , committed t o u s i n g the e v a l u a t i o n i n f o r m a t i o n . The model b u i l d s i n a h i g h p o t e n t i a l f o r u t i l i z a t i o n o f the - 54 -r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s , through c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h key i n f o r m a t i o n u s e r s a t a l l stages of the e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s . The model i s w e l l s u i t e d t o t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d s e t t i n g . From the e a r l i e s t d i s c u s s i o n w i t h i n the employment c e n t r e of the r e s e a r c h o p p o r t u n i t y p r e s e n t e d w i t h i n the r e s e a r c h / p r a c t i c e o p t i o n of the MSW program, the CEC manager was c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d as open, c o n f i d e n t and anxious t o i n t e r c h a n g e i d e a s w i t h the s t u d e n t / r e s e a r c h e r . These q u a l i t i e s are a l l i d e n t i f i e d w i t h i n d i v i d u a l s who are h i g h p o t e n t i a l u s e r s o f e v a l u a t i o n i n f o r m a t i o n , i n the Patton model. Other members o f management and the implementation team were a l s o concerned about program e v a l u a t i o n and feedback which might reduce d e c i s i o n u n c e r t a i n t y and improve program outcomes. Together these i n d i v i d u a l s r e p r e s e n t e d the s o - c a l l e d p e r s o n a l f a c t o r i n the P a t t o n model, a s s o c i a t i n g the l e a d e r s h i p , i n t e r e s t , enthusiasm, d e t e r m i n a t i o n , commitment, a g g r e s s i v e n e s s and c a r i n g of agency s t a f f w i t h u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d r e s e a r c h . The e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s , t h e r e f o r e , began a t the employment c e n t r e l e v e l as a d m i n i s t r a t o r s s t r u g g l e d w i t h the implementation of an expanded ma r g i n a l employment subs i d y t a r g e t e d on w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s , as a j o b c r e a t i o n program. An assessment o f the employment outcomes of p r e v i o u s program p a r t i c i p a n t s under the I S J , l o g i c a l l y would c o n t r i b u t e i n f o r m a t i o n which might a l l o w the implementation team t o more e f f e c t i v e l y t a r g e t the I S J program on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . In P atton's terms, the purpose of the e v a l u a t i o n was t o gather data t h a t would be used t o make judgments about the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the I S J - 55 -program. The student, as r e s e a r c h e r , was c a s t i n the r o l e of c o n s u l t a n t w i t h i n the f i e l d environment t o tap the c l i n i c a l i mpressions of employment c o u n s e l l o r s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s f o r r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e employment outcomes of program p a r t i c i p a n t s . Stages of the C o n s u l t a t i o n Process There were s e v e r a l d i s t i n c t stages t o t h e c o n s u l t a t i o n p r o c e s s which o c c u r r e d a t the employment c e n t r e l e v e l , between program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and management, and the s t u d e n t . These can be summarized as f o l l o w s : Research Stage C o n s u l t a t i o n A c t i v i t y C o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n - E x p l o r a t i o n and c o n f i r m a t i o n of the area f o r r e s e a r c h as w e l l as t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f the g u i d i n g q u e s t i o n s behind the r e s e a r c h . (September) I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e methodology i n c l u d i n g range of v a r i a b l e s and the a v a i l a b l e and supplementary data sources. (October & November) The student concluded c o n s u l t a t i o n s w i t h CEC and T h e s i s Committee on p o p u l a t i o n f o r study and r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . (December) P r e t e s t of q u e s t i o n n a i r e , d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and i n i t i a l d i s c u s s i o n a t CEC o f how f i n d i n g s might be communicated t o i n t e r e s t e d p a r t i e s . (January and February) Review of e a r l y r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s w i t h the implementation team and CEC employment u n i t as w e l l as i n i t i a l d i s c u s s i o n of p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s . (March) Methodology F i n a l Design C o n s u l t a t i o n s Data C o l l e c t i o n Data A n a l y s i s - 56 -Review of F i n d i n g s - P r e s e n t a t i o n o f f i n d i n g s t o CEC management and employment s t a f f r e s u l t i n g i n d e c i s i o n t o a d j u s t some a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r a c t i c e s , based on f i n d i n g s . ( A p r i l ) P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s - The student w i t h the support o f management, i n i t i a t e d d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h program a n a l y s i s and e v a l u a t i o n c o n s u l t a n t s a t r e g i o n a l headquarters t o ex p l o r e the broader p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s of the study. (May and June) The c o n s u l t a t i o n process i n v o l v e d employment c e n t r e p e r s o n n e l a t a l l stages o f the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t , a l t h o u g h t h e i r involvement was h e a v i e s t a t the c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n and p r o j e c t d e s i g n stages of the f i r s t term and the l a t t e r p a r t o f the second term when f i n d i n g s from the study became a v a i l a b l e . Throughout the p r o j e c t , t h e r e was a c o n s i s t e n t e f f o r t made by the student t o keep the CEC informed o f the r e s e a r c h p r o g r e s s . The i n t e n t was t o i n v o l v e CEC personnel as much as p o s s i b l e a t a l l stages o f the r e s e a r c h and even when t h e i r involvement was not c r i t i c a l , f o r the s t u d e n t / r e s e a r c h e r t o i d e n t i f y the s e r i e s of problem s o l v i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n v o l v e d a t t h a t st a g e . As R e i d and Smith have i d e n t i f i e d , t h i s knowledge of the na t u r e o f the problem s o l v i n g , r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t i e s and how they are o r g a n i z e d i s e s s e n t i a l i f the products o f r e s e a r c h are t o be p r o p e r l y comprehended and asse s s e d (Reid & Smith, 1981). I t i s t h i s i n t e g r a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the r e s e a r c h p r o c e s s which l e a d s t o informed r e s e a r c h consumership, a phrase used by R e i d and Smith, which i s a l s o c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the Patton e v a l u a t i o n model. - 57 -P o l i c y and Programming I m p l i c a t i o n s Because o f the c o n s u l t a t i o n p rocess which o c c u r r e d i n the p r e l i m i n a r y stages o f the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t , p o t e n t i a l programming i m p l i c a t i o n s were obvious from the s t a r t . The e a r l y c o n s u l t a t i o n s which d i s t i n g u i s h t h i s u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d , Patton model, from o t h e r e v a l u a t i o n approaches ensures t h a t the e v a l u a t o r does not c a r r y the burden f o r making c h o i c e s about the nature, purpose, content and method of the e v a l u a t i o n . I n s t e a d an informed group of decisionmakers which i n c l u d e d the CEC program s u p e r v i s o r , the employment s u p e r v i s o r and members of the ISJ/SAR implementation team which i n c l u d e d the student, shared these d e c i s i o n s . V a r i a b l e s were chosen f o r study based on the c l i n i c a l i mpressions of the c o u n s e l l i n g s t a f f and the CEC management team, r e i n f o r c e d by the l i t e r a t u r e s e a r c h c a r r i e d out by the student. The r e s u l t s of the r e s e a r c h were e a g e r l y a n t i c i p a t e d and the p r o j e c t supported by the CEC throughout the d u r a t i o n of the f i e l d placement. A p p r a i s a l of the C o l l a b o r a t i v e Process The c o l l a b o r a t i v e c o n s u l t a t i o n p r o c e s s generated commitment and enthusiasm f o r the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t a t the management l e v e l as w e l l as among the implementation team members i n the f i e l d placement agency. Without t h i s commitment, the p r o j e c t might not have been approved by s e n i o r management i n the f i r s t i n s t a n c e and i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d the p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s of the - 58 -f i n d i n g s would have been c o n f i n e d t o the CEC i f i t had not been f o r t he d i r e c t i o n and encouragement which the manager gave t o the student t o pursue the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e study w i t h r e g i o n a l program c o n s u l t a n t s . The o t h e r v e r y p o s i t i v e outcome of the commitment t o the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t which was generated by the c o l l a b o r a t i v e r e s e a r c h model, was the i n h e r e n t support f o r the student b a l a n c i n g a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f i e l d work w i t h the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i t s e l f . The student viewed t h i s balance t o be c r i t i c a l t o f u l f i l l i n g MSW program requirements w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of those courses chosen a t r e g i s t r a t i o n . A r e l a t i v e l y equal balance was maintained between the r e s e a r c h and f i e l d p r a c t i c e a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n the f i e l d s e t t i n g . The l i m i t a t i o n o f the c o l l a b o r a t i v e p r o c e s s l i e s w i t h the i n c r e a s e d r i s k o f adopting a narrower r e s e a r c h p e r s p e c t i v e when the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i s i n t e g r a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e f i e l d placement. Enmeshed i n the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i s s u e s o f program implementation, and the i n e v i t a b l e e x p e n d i t u r e o f program funds w i t h i n the time c o n s t r a i n t o f the f i s c a l y ear, was i t a p p r o p r i a t e , f o r example, f o r the r e s e a r c h t o c o n f i n e i t s measurement of program success t o employment outcomes and the employment c o u n s e l l o r s ' assessment of program b e n e f i t ? The study would c e r t a i n l y have been enhanced by measurement of the c l i e n t ' s p e r c e p t i o n o f program b e n e f i t . In r e a l i t y , t h i s l i m i t a t i o n o f the study was imposed not so much by t h e c o l l a b o r a t i v e r e s e a r c h process or the r e s e a r c h / p r a c t i c e MSW program o p t i o n , but by the time c o n s t r a i n t u l t i m a t e l y imposed by - 59 -the t e n month d u r a t i o n of the o v e r a l l MSW program. The f a c t remains, t h a t t h i s r e s e a r c h s e t t i n g has not t e s t e d the a d a p t a b i l i t y o f Patton's model t o c l i e n t consumers, as the u t i l i z a t i o n framework has been l i m i t e d t o f e d e r a l program managers and employment c o u n s e l l o r s as p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the r e s e a r c h p r o c e s s and p o t e n t i a l consumers o f t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s . As a product o f the combined r e s e a r c h / p r a c t i c e o p t i o n which u t i l i z e d t he Patton e v a l u a t i o n model, t h i s r e s e a r c h has approached the s e r v i c e - c o n t r o l l e d r e s e a r c h model i d e n t i f i e d by Crane i n which the r e s e a r c h i s a s s i m i l a t e d i n t o the p r a c t i c e (Crane, C o l l i n g & Bezonsky, 1983). The model embodies two developments which Crane a s s o c i a t e s w i t h emerging t r e n d s i n s o c i a l work r e s e a r c h ; s u b s t a n t i v e u t i l i z a t i o n and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l u t i l i z a t i o n . The former i n v o l v e s an e f f o r t t o u t i l i z e s y s t e m a t i c a l l y the f i n d i n g s , hypotheses and t h e o r i e s o f b e h a v i o r a l s c i e n c e and r e l a t e d f i e l d s f o r purposes o f a p p l i c a t i o n t o such areas as s o c i a l work p r a c t i c e and p o l i c y (Crane e t a l . , 1983). The l a t t e r i m p l i e s the use o f me t h o d o l o g i c a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s of the b e h a v i o r a l s c i e n c e s i n s o c i a l work p r a c t i c e through r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s which gather, p r o c e s s and analyze data a t both the d i r e c t p r a c t i c e and p o l i c y l e v e l s (Crane e t a l . , 1983). Patton's model i s evidence o f a s u b s t a n t i v e u t i l i z a t i o n t r e n d and t h i s p r o j e c t i s an example of both s u b s t a n t i v e and meth o d o l o g i c a l u t i l i z a t i o n . U l t i m a t e l y , the Patton model i s a t r a d e o f f i n which the success o f the c o l l a b o r a t i v e process, measured i n terms of the - 60 -u t i l i z a t i o n o f r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s , i s t r a d e d o f f a g a i n s t the l i m i t a t i o n s i n h e r e n t i n a s i n g l e agency o r i e n t a t i o n t o the r e s e a r c h t o p i c which can evolve out of the c o l l a b o r a t i v e p r o c e s s . T h i s r i s k may i n c r e a s e f o r the student, when the chosen r e s e a r c h / p r a c t i c e o p t i o n o f the MSW program, p l a c e s the student i n program d e l i v e r y which i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o the r e s e a r c h area. What i s important, i s t h a t the s t u d e n t / r e s e a r c h c o n s u l t a n t r e c o g n i z e t h i s e t h i c a l dilemma and g r a p p l e w i t h i t as a c h a l l e n g e a p p r o p r i a t e t o the r e s e a r c h f i e l d and t h e s o c i a l work p r o f e s s i o n g e n e r a l l y . - 61 -CHAPTER IV THE RESEARCH PROBLEM Issues S e l e c t e d f o r Research The r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t evolved from the d e s i r e o f management at the employment c e n t r e t o u t i l i z e e f f e c t i v e l y and e f f i c i e n t l y the expanded job c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e s which had been t a r g e t e d through the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job (ISJ) program, on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . As a r e l a t i v e l y new employment i n i t i a t i v e , t h e r e was no documented body o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i d e n t i f i e d the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s who had p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the program o r the s p e c i f i c program o p p o r t u n i t i e s which had been c r e a t e d under p r e v i o u s I S J c o n t r a c t s . No attempt had been made t o a s s o c i a t e l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s or o t h e r economic f a c t o r s w i t h the s p e c i f i c j o bs which had been c r e a t e d . Aggregate employment outcomes from r e g i o n a l o r n a t i o n a l follow-up were not a v a i l a b l e on e i t h e r immediate o r l o n g e r term I S J program outcomes. I t became c l e a r t o the r e s e a r c h e r and CEC management t h a t a more comprehensive knowledge of the I S J e x p e r i e n c e t o date would a s s i s t the implementation team i n the marketing of t h e program t o both employee and employer c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . S e l e c t i o n and r e f e r r a l o f c l i e n t s from the p r o v i n c i a l M i n i s t r y o f S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing might, f o r example, take i n t o account any c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which were a s s o c i a t e d w i t h poor program - 62 -performance. The i n t e n t was t o avoid, the r e f e r r a l o f w e l f a r e c l i e n t whose r e - o r i e n t a t i o n t o the l a b o u r market r e q u i r e d a more s u p p o r t i v e and/or s t r u c t u r e d work environment than those c r e a t e d under the I S J , and a t the same time, t o be c a u t i o u s t h a t the program d i d not focus on c l i e n t groups l i k e l y t o be s u c c e s s f u l f i n d i n g employment without the program i n t e r v e n t i o n . Employment c o u n s e l l o r s on t h e ISJ/SAR implementation team were v e r y w i l l i n g t o adapt f u t u r e I S J c o n t r a c t s i f program i n t e r v e n t i o n f a c t o r s i n the job s i t e were i d e n t i f i e d w i t h s u c c e s s f u l outcomes. For example, i f c l i e n t follow-up through m o n i t o r i n g v i s i t s by the employment c o u n s e l l o r who had o r i g i n a l l y r e f e r r e d t h e c l i e n t t o the I S J was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h more p o s i t i v e employment outcomes, more of the r o u t i n e c o n t r a c t m o n i t o r i n g might be handled w i t h i n the CEC by t h i s same r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r . Management was a l s o r e c e p t i v e t o m o d i f y i n g t h i s k i n d of c o n t r a c t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w i t h i n the CEC i f t h e r e was e m p i r i c a l evidence t h a t c e r t a i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e d program outcomes. The r e s e a r c h was, t h e r e f o r e , designed t o f o c u s on i s s u e s which arose from the f i r s t t h i r t e e n months o f program experience, i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o the r e f e r r a l of c l i e n t s and management of the 64 I S J c o n t r a c t s which had been i n i t i a t e d and completed by the end of October of 1986. The i s s u e s s e l e c t e d f o r r e s e a r c h were c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as measures o f the i n d i v i d u a l c a p a c i t y which c l i e n t s brought as i n p u t t o the I S J program and the employment o p p o r t u n i t y t h a t was c r e a t e d through the I S J program. Three f a c t o r s were assumed t o have a f f e c t e d t h i s employment o p p o r t u n i t y : the I S J program i n t e r v e n t i o n , CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the i n d i v i d u a l c o n t r a c t , and c o n d i t i o n s i n the l o c a l l a b o u r market i n which the job was s u b s i d i z e d . The r e s e a r c h assumption was t h a t both c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and employment o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s a f f e c t the i n t e g r a t i o n o f l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s i n t o the l a b o u r market, through the I S J program a d m i n i s t e r e d as a marginal employment subsidy. The g u i d i n g r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s which emerged from t h i s assumption were: 1. To what degree are c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the c l i e n t , a s s o c i a t e d w i t h I S J program outcomes? 2. To what degree are program i n t e r v e n t i o n f a c t o r s , as s p e c i f i c j o b o r c o n t r a c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a s s o c i a t e d w i t h I S J program outcomes? 3. To what degree are CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h I S J program outcomes? 4. To what degree are l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s i n the s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n a l area of the job which i s s u b s i d i z e d , a s s o c i a t e d w i t h I S J program outcomes? F i g u r e I i d e n t i f i e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the f a c t o r s ( i n d i c a t e d by l e t t e r s A,B,C and D) i n c l u d e d i n the study, which address these g u i d i n g r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s . The s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s chosen as measures of these f a c t o r s are a l s o i d e n t i f i e d i n f i g u r e I . C l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (A) were measured by sex, age, edu c a t i o n , l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the twelve months immediately p r i o r t o the I S J , the l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y as a combined measure of m a r i t a l s t a t u s and the number o f dependents of the p a r t i c i p a n t , the p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage of the c l i e n t , and the m o t i v a t i o n of t h e c l i e n t t o work a t the b e g i n n i n g of the program. These c l i e n t - 64 -INPUT C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Sex Age Education Labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n Family r e s p o n s i b i l i t y Employment disadvantage M o t i v a t i o n t o work F i g u r e I. R e l a t i o n s h i p between V a r i a b l e s I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job  Research P r o j e c t I I . OPPORTUNITY I I I . OUTPUT B. Program I n t e r v e n t i o n E. Outcome 1. O c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n 1. Employment outcome 2. I n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r 2. O v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t 3. Intended d u r a t i o n 4. A c t u a l d u r a t i o n 5. Wage r a t e 6. S k i l l l e v e l 7. S o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n 8. Career path 9. Commitment o f s u p e r v i s o r C. Program A d m i n i s t r a t i o n 1. C o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n 2. M o n i t o r i n g 3. Follow-up by r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r D. Labour Market C o n d i t i o n s 1. D i f f i c u l t y o f j o b se a r c h 2. O c c u p a t i o n a l supply and demand b a l a n c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were e s s e n t i a l l y antecedent v a r i a b l e s which were t r e a t e d as independent v a r i a b l e s i n the study. The o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s i n c l u d e d nine I S J program i n t e r v e n t i o n v a r i a b l e s (B), which measured s p e c i f i c j o b c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , the d u r a t i o n of the s u b s i d i z a t i o n , both intended and a c t u a l , as w e l l as the wage r a t e and the s k i l l l e v e l of the s u b s i d i z e d job r e l a t i v e t o the most r e c e n t j o b h e l d by the c l i e n t . C o n s u l t a t i o n s w i t h i n the CEC a l s o i d e n t i f i e d the l e v e l of s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n on the job, evidence of a c a r e e r path from th e s u b s i d i z e d job and the commitment o f t h e immediate s u p e r v i s o r t o the u n d e r l y i n g o b j e c t i v e s of the program as key program i n t e r v e n t i o n v a r i a b l e s . Three measures o f I S J c o n t r a c t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n (C) w i t h i n the CEC were chosen f o r study, again based on the c l i n i c a l i m pressions o f employment c o u n s e l l o r s , r e i n f o r c e d by the l i t e r a t u r e review of the r e s e a r c h e r . The e x t e n t o f c o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n p r i o r t o the program, was measured by the number of employment c o u n s e l l i n g i n t e r v i e w s h e l d w i t h the c l i e n t b e f o r e r e f e r r a l t o the s p e c i f i c s u b s i d i z e d j o b . M o n i t o r i n g v i s i t s t o the job s i t e were i d e n t i f i e d by CEC management as key a d m i n i s t r a t i o n v a r i a b l e s : t h e r e f o r e , both the e x t e n t of o v e r a l l c o n t r a c t m o n i t o r i n g and the s p e c i f i c m o n i t o r i n g which was done by c o u n s e l l o r s who had o r i g i n a l l y r e f e r r e d the c l i e n t t o the employer were i n c l u d e d i n the study. L o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s (D) were c o n s i d e r e d as f a c t o r s w i t h i n t h e employment o p p o r t u n i t y c r e a t e d under the I S J . - 66 -Two measures o f l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s were s e l e c t e d . The f i r s t was the c o m p e t i t i o n which program p a r t i c i p a n t s f a c e d i n the l o c a l l a b o u r market and the second was the r e l a t i v e balance between o c c u p a t i o n a l supply and demand, both measured a t the end of the wage subsidy. There were two measures of program outcome (E), as the dependent v a r i a b l e s : the immediate, po s t program employment outcome and an assessment by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r , of the o v e r a l l b e n e f i t which the c l i e n t r e c e i v e d from p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n the program. The i n p u t , o p p o r t u n i t y , and output program stages i n c l u d e d i n t h i s study r e p r e s e n t the f i r s t t h r e e of f i v e stages i d e n t i f i e d i n a r e c e n t c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of manpower t r a i n i n g programs by Lawther & Gromelski (1984). These r e s e a r c h e r s i n c l u d e s h o r t - t e r m impact measured e i g h t months a f t e r program t e r m i n a t i o n and long-term impact measured from two t o f o u r years a f t e r t e r m i n a t i o n , as the f i n a l two stages i n a f i v e stage c l a s s i f i c a t i o n and a n a l y s i s of e v a l u a t i o n s t u d i e s . Conceptual Model of the Research The study f o l l o w e d a c o v a r i a n c e r e s e a r c h model, o u t l i n e d by G l a s s e r and adapted by Crane (Crane, 1986; G l a s e r , 1978). T h i s model r e f e r s t o s i x C's which are i d e n t i f i e d d i a g r a m m a t i c a l l y i n f i g u r e I I and are c o n t e x t s , c o n d i t i o n s , causes, consequences, c o v a r i a t e s , and c o n t i n g e n c i e s . These s i x C's can c o n v e n i e n t l y be used t o d e s c r i b e t h i s r e s e a r c h model. - 67 -The 'context' f o r the r e s e a r c h was the I S J program, a j o b c r e a t i o n program a d m i n i s t e r e d as a marginal employment subs i d y under the Canadian Job S t r a t e g y of Employment and Immigration Canada. The c o n t e x t was f u r t h e r d e f i n e d as the 64 program p a r t i c i p a n t s from the E a s t Hastings CEC area who had completed the program by October 31, 1986. F i g u r e I I .  Covariance Research Model Contexts (64 I S J Contracts) -t C o n d i t i o n s ( w i t h i n the CEC) ( w i t h i n the job s i t e ) V Causes (A, B, D) A Consequences (E) t T C o v a r i a t e s (C) 1 C o n t i n g e n c i e s Note. Adapted from Crane (1986) and G l a s e r (1978). The 'causes' were those f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d through c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h CEC personnel and s e l e c t e d f o r study because of t h e i r suspected impact on program outcomes or 'consequences'. These causes i n c l u d e d the range of c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (A) as - 68 -w e l l as the program i n t e r v e n t i o n (B) and l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s (D) as the o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d i n F i g u r e I. The a d m i n i s t r a t i v e v a r i a b l e s (C) which were i d e n t i f i e d as o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s , c o u l d be viewed as ' c o v a r i a t e s ' i n the study. While each was thought t o i n f l u e n c e t h e employment outcomes o r consequences, each of these t h r e e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e v a r i a b l e s c o u l d have a f f e c t e d some of the causes. For example, the e x t e n t o f c o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n p r i o r t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the program, may have a f f e c t e d the c l i e n t ' s m o t i v a t i o n t o work a t the b e g i n n i n g of the program. S i m i l a r l y , t h e e x t e n t of o v e r a l l c o n t r a c t m o n i t o r i n g and the s p e c i f i c m o n i t o r i n g done by the o r i g i n a l r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r , may have i n c r e a s e d the commitment o f immediate s u p e r v i s o r s t o the o v e r a l l employment o b j e c t i v e s of the program. Although t h e r e appeared not t o have been any dramatic a l t e r a t i o n i n the ' c o n d i t i o n s ' w i t h i n the CEC over t h e t h i r t e e n months of program o p e r a t i o n under review, the study made no attempt t o assess these c o n d i t i o n s which might have a l t e r e d w i t h i n the s i x t y f o u r i n d i v i d u a l work s i t e s where the jobs had been s u b s i d i z e d . S i m i l a r l y , ' c o n t i n g e n c i e s ' as f o r t u i t o u s events, which might have o c c u r r e d i n the p e r s o n a l l i v e s o f program p a r t i c i p a n t s or socio-economic f a c t o r s and which might have a f f e c t e d e i t h e r the causes or consequences, were not accounted f o r i n the study through the i n c l u s i o n o f dummy v a r i a b l e s . Although f i s c a l r e s t r a i n t was e v i d e n t w i t h i n the CEC, c o u n s e l l i n g and management personnel had been s t a b l e over the t h i r t e e n months under review, and unplanned events d i d not appear t o have a f f e c t e d the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e v a r i a b l e s as c o v a r i a t e s i n the study. Knowledge-Building F u n c t i o n of the Research C o n s i s t e n t w i t h most r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s , t h i s study performed more than one knowledge-building f u n c t i o n (Reid and Smith, 1981) . As a d e s c r i p t i v e study of the e x p e r i e n c e of p r e v i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s , the r e s e a r c h was designed t o c o n t r i b u t e t o the s c a n t body o f knowledge on the I S J program as a r e l a t i v e l y new t a r g e t e d j o b c r e a t i o n program. What had been accomplished through the I S J i n t e r v e n t i o n , f o r whom and how, were t o be d e f i n i t e r e s e a r c h outcomes. Although i t was not the primary purpose of the study, t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n would i n e v i t a b l y l e a d t o t e n t a t i v e judgments and hypotheses c o n c e r n i n g t h e program, as an a c c o u n t a b i l i t y outcome of the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t . By c o n c e p t u a l d e s i g n , the c o v a r i a n c e r e s e a r c h model meant t h a t the r e s e a r c h a l s o had an e x p l a n a t o r y f u n c t i o n . The p r o j e c t attempted t o measure the s t r e n g t h of a s s o c i a t i o n s between the two c a t e g o r i e s o f independent v a r i a b l e s ( i n p u t and o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s ) and employment outcomes as the dependant v a r i a b l e s or program outputs. As such, the r e s e a r c h was t o c o n t r i b u t e t o an u nderstanding of the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p of f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the s u c c e s s f u l a d a p t a t i o n of the long term unemployed i n t o the l a b o u r market, through work based employment programs. The f u n c t i o n of t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t went beyond d e s c r i p t i o n and e x p l a n a t i o n , however. Cherns has i d e n t i f i e d f o u r d i f f e r e n t forms o f r e s e a r c h based on d i s t i n c t i o n s between d i f f e r e n t m o d a l i t i e s of r e s e a r c h and t h e i r d i f f e r e n t i a l i n t e r f a c e w i t h the problem of a p p l i c a t i o n ( c i t e d i n Rothman, 1980). These f o u r forms are pure b a s i c r e s e a r c h , b a s i c o b j e c t i v e r e s e a r c h , o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h , and a c t i o n r e s e a r c h . The d e s c r i p t i o n and e x p l a n a t i o n f u n c t i o n s are more e x c l u s i v e outcomes of the f i r s t two forms of b a s i c r e s e a r c h . While these were d e f i n i t e outcomes of t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t , they were not i t s primary o r i e n t a t i o n . The i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t w i t h f i e l d p r a c t i c e of the MSW program and t h e t i m i n g of the r e s e a r c h w i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l i n f u s i o n o f f e d e r a l funds t o t a r g e t the I S J program on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s , meant t h a t t h e r e was a l s o a c l e a r o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h f u n c t i o n t o the p r o j e c t . Rothman d i s t i n g u i s h e s t h i s form of a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h by a g a i n c i t i n g Cherns, who d e f i n e s o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h as r e s e a r c h aimed a t s o l v i n g ongoing problems w i t h i n o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s e t t i n g s (Rothman, 1980, p. 16). The a d a p t a t i o n of the I S J program based on t h e f i n d i n g s of the r e s e a r c h , was the more immediate o b j e c t i v e o f the study. Feedback on whether the i n d i v i d u a l c a p a c i t y which c l i e n t s brought t o the program and whether the s p e c i f i c o p p o r t u n i t i e s which had been c r e a t e d under the I S J i n f l u e n c e d t h e employment outcomes, were t o l e a d t o program change as a primary f u n c t i o n of the r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t . I t was P a t t o n 1 s (1978) model of u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d e v a l u a t i o n which guided the r e s e a r c h process from s t a r t t o f i n i s h and which e f f e c t i v e l y t r a n s f o r m e d b a s i c r e s e a r c h t e c h n i q u e s i n t o the a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h p r a c t i c e s embodied i n o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h . Previous Research The e v a l u a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e on employment programs i s e x t e n s i v e . A l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the r e s e a r c h i s based on programs i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s under the Work I n c e n t i v e Program (WIN) e s t a b l i s h e d by amendments t o the S o c i a l S e c u r i t y A c t i n 1967, which c o n c e n t r a t e d programming f o r r e c i p i e n t s o f A i d t o F a m i l i e s w i t h Dependent C h i l d r e n (AFDC). The m a j o r i t y of the programs under WIN were supply s i d e i n t e r v e n t i o n s w i t h r e l a t i v e l y few i n t e g r a t e d w i t h la b o u r market s t r a t e g i e s t o a f f e c t the demand f o r la b o u r . Although American workfare programs began i n 1973 under the C a l i f o r n i a Community Work Experience Program, the more r e c e n t n a t i o n a l workfare i n i t i a t i v e s were s t a t e responses t o the Omnibus Budget R e c o n c i l i a t i o n A c t (OBRA) of 1981. Program d e s i g n s v a r i e d g r e a t l y under both i n i t i a t i v e s , w i t h a wide range o f t a r g e t groups, program s e t t i n g s , program components and the o b l i g a t i o n of c l i e n t s t o p a r t i c i p a t e . In Canada, the h i s t o r y o f employment i n i t i a t i v e s f o r w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s has been much s h o r t e r and more s p o r a d i c (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982). A l b e r t a has experimented w i t h temporary work experie n c e f o r hard t o p l a c e w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s under the Employment S k i l l s Demonstration P r o j e c t . Under the program, - 72 -c l e r i c a l work was o f f e r e d f o r s i x months i n p u b l i c s e c t o r s e t t i n g s w i t h w e l f a r e payments topped up as i n c e n t i v e t o p a r t i c i p a t e . The O n t a r i o Work I n c e n t i v e Program (WIN) i n t r o d u c e d i n 1980, u n l i k e the American program of the same name, was not designed as an i n t e g r a t e d employment support i n t e r v e n t i o n . Job ready r e c i p i e n t s were o f f e r e d earnings d i s r e g a r d s , h e a l t h b e n e f i t s , phase-out b e n e f i t s t o cover some of the i n i t i a l c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e t u r n i n g t o work, and the promise o f q u i c k r e i n s t a t e m e n t t o Family B e n e f i t s i f the job f a i l e d . As such, i t has been i d e n t i f i e d as an e a r n i n g s d i s r e g a r d program and not an employment i n i t i a t i v e (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982). For t h i s reason i t has not been i n c l u d e d i n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e review. The o n l y i d e n t i f i e d e v a l u a t i o n of an employment i n i t i a t i v e s f o r w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s i n B r i t i s h Columbia was a student e v a l u a t i o n o f the O p p o r t u n i t y I n c e n t i v e Program f o r the Vancouver ar e a (Gracy, 1977). P a r t i c i p a n t s r e c e i v e d $50, b a b y s i t t i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s as i n c e n t i v e t o work 50 hours per month i n n o n - p r o f i t agencies. The v e r y p a r t time nature o f t h i s program and i t s i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e w i t h i n the w e l f a r e system, a l s o excluded t h i s program from those work-based employment i n i t i a t i v e s i n c l u d e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e review. Wherever p o s s i b l e , the l i t e r a t u r e review c o n c e n t r a t e d on programs t h a t are s i m i l a r i n d e s i g n t o the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job (ISJ) program. These programs focu s e d on: ° the l o n g term unemployed &/or w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s ° work s i t e s as program s e t t i n g s ° s k i l l a c q u i s i t i o n p r i m a r i l y through work, not t r a i n i n g ° v o l u n t a r y , f u l l - t i m e p a r t i c i p a t i o n U n l i k e the I S J which a f f e c t s both the s u p p l y o f l a b o u r by b e i n g t a r g e t e d on a d i s t i n c t group of unemployed, the l o n g term unemployed, and the demand f o r la b o u r through i t s j o b c r e a t i o n impact, many o f the programs i n the l i t e r a t u r e review were pure s u p p l y - s i d e employment i n i t i a t i v e s which worked w i t h t h e l o n g term unemployed i n s u p p o r t i v e work environments or p u b l i c s e c t o r work s i t e s t o improve work p a t t e r n s and j o b s k i l l s p r i o r t o placement i n u n s u b s i d i z e d jobs which o f f e r e d some p o t e n t i a l f o r c o n t i n u i n g employment. Even those program i n t e r v e n t i o n s which d i d o f f e r i n c e n t i v e f o r employers t o p a r t i c i p a t e , were not n e c e s s a r i l y a d m i n i s t e r e d as marginal employment s u b s i d i e s p a i d d i r e c t l y t o the employer, l i k e the I S J . Because t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t was designed t o measure o n l y immediate, p o s t program outcomes, the l i t e r a t u r e review focused on p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h which a l s o used immediate or s h o r t term i n d i c a t o r s o f program success. Trends i n the L i t e r a t u r e The l i t e r a t u r e c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e s a programming t r e n d from the 1970's t o l o c a t e t r a i n i n g and work o r i e n t e d employment programs c l o s e r t o the work s i t e . In the U n i t e d S t a t e s , i n d u s t r i a l employment programs f o r the hard-core unemployed, v e r y o f t e n b l a c k m i n o r i t y groups, began w i t h c l a s s r o o m t r a i n i n g t h a t d e a l t w i t h both employment and job s k i l l s . T r a i n e e s were then i n t e g r a t e d i n t o assembly l i n e p r o d u c t i o n under s u p e r v i s o r s who had been s e n s i t i z e d t o the employment s k i l l s i s s u e s such as absenteeism and t a r d i n e s s which so o f t e n arose w i t h t h i s c l i e n t - 74 -group (Johnson, 1969). One survey of r e s e a r c h on i n t e r v e n t i o n s t o improve the work adjustment of the disadvantaged, concluded t h a t i n t e r v e n t i o n programs may be most e f f e c t i v e when they take p l a c e w i t h i n the a c t u a l employment s e t t i n g ; however i f the program i s not w e l l - i n t e g r a t e d w i t h the r e a l i t i e s o f t h e work s i t u a t i o n , i t w i l l not be s u c c e s s f u l a t a l l ( O e t t i n g , Cole & M i l l e r , 1974, p 67). T h i s same t r e n d was c l e a r l y a r t i c u l a t e d i n a l a t e r e v a l u a t i o n of Comprehensive Employment and T r a i n i n g A c t (CETA) programs on WIN c l i e n t s i n North C a r o l i n a . The e v a l u a t i o n s t a t e d t h a t the most e f f e c t i v e t r a i n i n g s t r a t e g i e s were t o h i r e the t r a i n e e as an employee a t the s t a r t of t r a i n i n g so the i n d i v i d u a l c o u l d work under c o n d i t i o n s e x p e r i e n c e d by e n t r y - l e v e l employees i n the same o r g a n i z a t i o n (Hudgins, 1986, p.19). While s o c i a l l y a c c e p t a b l e , temporary employment was a g o a l of the 60's and e a r l y 70's, the program emphasis appeared t o have s h i f t e d by the l a t e 70's t o 'placement i n j o b s ' (Ashby, 1985). The s u s p i c i o n of some r e s e a r c h e r s , was t h a t temporary make s h i f t j o b s and community s e r v i c e may have a c t u a l l y promoted w e l f a r e ( P a t i n o , 1986). The N a t i o n a l Supported Work Demonstration which operated i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s f o r f i v e years b e g i n n i n g i n 1975, was a program response c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h i s t r e n d . I t was s i m i l a r t o the I S J i n i t s emphasis on t r a n s i t i o n a l work t o a s s i s t AFDC b e n e f i c i a r i e s , e x - a d d i c t s , e x - o f f e n d e r s and young s c h o o l drop outs t o make a s u c c e s s f u l t r a n s i t i o n i n t o the l a b o u r market. P a r t i c i p a t i o n was v o l u n t a r y . E v a l u a t i o n has shown t h a t r e s u l t s - 75 -measured i n terms of employment and e a r n i n g s were l a r g e s t f o r the AFDC group, i n p a r t because these p a r t i c i p a n t s s t a y e d i n the program l o n g e r (Masters & Maynard, 1981). The o t h e r c o n s i s t e n t theme i n the l i t e r a t u r e i s t h a t the g r e a t e s t impact on employment i s c o n c e n t r a t e d among those groups c o n s i d e r e d h a r d e r t o employ, i . e . those w i t h l i m i t e d r e c e n t employment, the most disadvantaged or l e a s t employable (Garvin, Smith & Reid, 1978), (Gueron, 1986). Some r e s e a r c h e r s have i n t e r p r e t e d these f i n d i n g s t o mean t h a t l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s produce the most s i g n i f i c a n t w e l f a r e s a v i n g s when they become s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g (Patino,1986). However these are r e l a t i v e g a i n s . The g r e a t e s t a b s o l u t e b e n e f i t s have o f t e n been t o those who are l e a s t disadvantaged and s t a r t from a b e t t e r employment base and r e c o r d of earnings (Garvin e t a l , 1978) or more r e c e n t employment experience (Masters & Maynard, 1981). C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s While employment c e n t r e c o u n s e l l o r s were o f t h e o p i n i o n t h a t c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n f l u e n c e d program outcomes, these c l i n i c a l i mpressions are not always supported i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . Sawhiney has concluded t h a t demographic t r a i t s have had no impact on s h o r t term earnings i n d i c a t o r s ( c i t e d i n Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). The U.S. experience w i t h the Work I n c e n t i v e Experience (WIN) programs i n g e n e r a l shows t h a t i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of p a r t i c i p a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s from program elements (Garvin, e t a l , 1978). In c o n t r a s t , Auerbach has concluded t h a t f o r hard c o r e WIN - 76 -p a r t i c i p a n t s e n t r y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were the main determinants of success ( c i t e d i n G a r v i n e t a l , 1978). Canadian r e s e a r c h e r s r e v i e w i n g the e x t e n s i v e WIN e v a l u a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e have concluded t h a t socio-demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s may have been one of s e v e r a l f a c t o r s which accounted f o r the almost u n i v e r s a l d e c l a r a t i o n t h a t WIN was a f a i l u r e (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982). The Talmadge Amendments t o WIN i n 1971 and f u r t h e r amendments i n 1975 r e s u l t e d i n an emphasis on d i r e c t j o b placement r a t h e r than improved e m p l o y a b i l i t y through t r a i n i n g . I f c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s determined program success, a l o g i c a l program d e c i s i o n was t o de-emphasize t r a i n i n g and c o n c e n t r a t e on placement i n j o b s . Some s t u d i e s have demonstrated t h a t age i s not a f a c t o r i n work experi e n c e program outcomes, although i t has been r e p o r t e d t o have p o s i t i v e l y i n f l u e n c e d wage ga i n s f o r younger workers i n classroom and on-the-job t r a i n i n g s e t t i n g s (Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). However, when age i s combined w i t h e d u c a t i o n , younger h i g h s c h o o l graduates have shown s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n e a r n i n g s g a i n s over o l d e r p a r t i c i p a n t s i n work ex p e r i e n c e programs (Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). Sex has been i d e n t i f i e d as a d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r w i t h males e a r n i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y more than females i n s h o r t term follow-up (Siikman, 1983). Males i n the P u b l i c Employment Program (PEP) of WIN had h i g h e r p r e - e n r o l l m e n t wage r a t e s as w e l l as h i g h e r program e a r n i n g s compared t o females (Garvin e t a l 1978). However females have experienced h i g h e r e a r n i n g s g a i n s through PEP p a r t i c i p a t i o n as w e l l as i n o t h e r programs ( G a r v i n e t a l , 1978), (Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). When combined w i t h age, earni n g s g a i n s f o r o l d e r females have been r e p o r t e d t o remain s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r than f o r ot h e r c l i e n t groups, as a r e s u l t of work ex p e r i e n c e programs Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). Female h i g h s c h o o l drop outs have a l s o shown h i g h e r e a r n i n g s g a i n s than male c o u n t e r p a r t s (Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). E d u c a t i o n has a l s o been i d e n t i f i e d as a f a c t o r i n t h a t male h i g h s c h o o l graduates exceeded earnings i n c r e a s e s compared t o male h i g h s c h o o l drop outs who p a r t i c i p a t e d i n work ex p e r i e n c e programs (Lawther & Gromelski, 1984). Program I n t e r v e n t i o n The l i t e r a t u r e makes i n f r e q u e n t r e f e r e n c e t o program d u r a t i o n s . Only i n the case of the Supported Work Program run by the U.S. Manpower Demonstration Research C o r p o r a t i o n was the p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on AFDC p a r t i c i p a n t s compared t o o t h e r t a r g e t groups, p a r t l y i d e n t i f i e d w i t h the l e n g t h o f program p a r t i c i p a t i o n (Masters & Maynard, 1980). E n t r y l e v e l j o b s w i t h a minimum of s k i l l development have been i d e n t i f i e d w i t h p o s i t i v e outcomes (Gueron,1986). While Smith and Klau s n e r concluded t h a t WIN upgraded the o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f p a r t i c i p a n t s ( c i t e d i n G a r v i n e t a l , 1978), P e r r y has qu e s t i o n e d whether the changes i n o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n r e p r e s e n t e d improvements i n advancement p o t e n t i a l , as the occupations entered were c o n c e n t r a t e d i n the secondary, low-wage market wi t h poor o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r advancement ( c i t e d i n G a r v i n e t a l , 1978). - 78 -M i c h i e and Lawrie as w e l l as F r i e d l a n d e r & Greenberg f e e l s t r o n g l y t h a t s o c i a l f a c t o r s i n the work s e t t i n g , or the l e v e l o f support i n the work environment, a f f e c t s u c c e s s f u l employment outcomes f o r those p l a c e d i n job s e t t i n g s ( c i t e d i n O e t t i n g , e t a l , 1974). One r e s e a r c h e r more s p e c i f i c a l l y s t a t e d t h a t the immediate s u p e r v i s o r i s the key f a c t o r i n the s u c c e s s f u l i n t e g r a t i o n of the hard-core unemployed i n t o work s e t t i n g s (Johnson, 1969). Although t h i s i s not r e c e n t evidence, the s u g g e s t i o n was supported by the c l i n i c a l i m p ressions w i t h i n the employment c e n t r e as w e l l as p r o v i n c i a l s o c i a l s e r v i c e s p e r s o n n e l . Agency A d m i n i s t r a t i o n Although the management team a t the CEC f e l t s t r o n g l y t h a t program fo l l o w - u p through m o n i t o r i n g v i s i t s t o t h e work s i t e i n f l u e n c e d program outcome, r e f e r e n c e s t o such a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i s s u e s are i n f r e q u e n t i n the l i t e r a t u r e . I t i s more fre q u e n t f o r o v e r a l l program d e s i g n t o r e f l e c t the p h i l o s o p h y t h a t s u p p o r t i v e program environments are c r i t i c a l i n employment i n i t i a t i v e s d esigned f o r the long term unemployed. A 1979 e v a l u a t i o n of the o v e r a l l WIN program by the Urban I n s t i t u t e d i d study o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , managerial and s e r v i c e d e l i v e r y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of WIN s t a t e programs and l o c a l p r o j e c t s i t e s . I t concluded t h a t frequent and i n t e n s i v e m o n i t o r i n g were important p r o c e d u r a l v a r i a b l e s which i n f l u e n c e d outcomes (Johnar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982). - 79 -Labour Market C o n d i t i o n s While e v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h appears t o have foc u s e d l e s s f r e q u e n t l y on o v e r r i d i n g economic f a c t o r s as v a r i a b l e s which i n f l u e n c e employment program outcomes, t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t evidence t o suggest t h a t these f a c t o r s should be i n c l u d e d i n e v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h . In a comprehensive review of the WIN ex p e r i e n c e , G a r v i n , Smith and R e i d (1978) p e s s i m i s t i c a l l y suggest t h a t each s u c c e s s f u l WIN placement c r e a t e d another p o t e n t i a l WIN e n r o l l e e i n a r e v o l v i n g door e f f e c t . The r e f e r e n c e i s t o a p o t e n t i a l l y h i g h s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t of employment programs t a r g e t e d on the low wage, low s k i l l l a b o u r market. G a r v i n e t a l recommended a n a t i o n a l jobs p o l i c y i n t h e i r c o n c l u s i o n t h a t WIN as a manpower program was not a s o l u t i o n t o unemployment. T h e i r assessment was t h a t l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s p l a y a c r u c i a l r o l e i n de t e r m i n i n g w e l f a r e employment and t h a t economic f a c t o r s f a r outweigh program d e s i g n v a r i a b l e s i n d e t e r m i n i n g program outcomes (Garvin e t a l , 1978). The Urban I n s t i t u t e study c i t e d e a r l i e r , s i m i l a r l y i d e n t i f i e d the overwhelming importance of l a b o u r market and l o c a l demographic v a r i a b l e s i n e x p l a i n i n g i n t e r s t a t e v a r i a t i o n s i n WIN performance (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982). F i v e environmental v a r i a b l e s are r e p o r t e d t o have been p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h p a r t i c i p a n t outcomes (Jonhar, 1982). These were: 0 the p r o p o r t i o n o f low-wage i n d u s t r y ° average s i z e of l o c a l employers 0 the s i z e o f the l o c a l p overty p o p u l a t i o n ° the e x t e n t of male r e g i s t r a n t s i n the WIN program - 80 -° r a t e of l o c a l employment growth. Other US r e s e a r c h from the e a r l y 70's, when unemployment r a t e s were r i s i n g , has expressed l i t t l e s u r p r i s e t h a t work-based employment programs f a i l e d t o p r o v i d e s o l u t i o n s t o unemployment problems t h a t would s u r v i v e the v a g a r i e s of t h e job market ( O e t t i n g , e t a l , 1974). Another study of the e v a l u a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e on employment i n i t i a t i v e s i n both t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canada has concluded t h a t the absence of a p p r o p r i a t e j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s seems t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h program f a i l u r e (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982). The l a b o u r economic t h e o r y c i t e d i n Chapter Two, which focuses on job c r e a t i o n programs as demand-side employment i n i t i a t i v e s , supports the c o n c l u s i o n s of these s u p p l y - s i d e program e v a l u a t i o n s , by r e c o g n i z i n g the l i m i t a t i o n s o f employer-based work i n c e n t i v e programs under c e r t a i n economic c o n d i t i o n s i n both the p r o d u c t market and l a b o u r market. W i t h i n a workfare program context, one r e s e a r c h e r has noted t h a t employers who have had the c a p a c i t y t o e v e n t u a l l y h i r e and promote p a r t i c i p a n t s from e n t r y l e v e l j o b s , have p o s i t i v e l y i n f l u e n c e d outcomes i n t r a i n i n g on-the-job programs (Hudgins, 1986). Outcome V a r i a b l e s There i s a wide range of employment outcomes r e p o r t e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e . G i n s b e r g has suggested t h a t the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of manpower programs should be judged a g a i n s t t h e e x t e n t t o which - 81 -they have improved the employment, income and c a r e e r p r o s p e c t s of the disadvantaged ( c i t e d i n O e t t i n g e t a l , 1974). In the U.S., e f f o r t s t o improve the work p a r t i c i p a t i o n of w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s p r i o r t o 1981 are r e p o r t e d t o have had mixed success. Gueron and Nathan r e p o r t e d t h a t programs which sought t o improve p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s of w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s r e s u l t e d i n lower p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , s t a f f r e s i s t a n c e and implementation f a i l u r e s ( c i t e d i n Gueron, 1986). A Canadian review o f the e v a l u a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e on the American WIN e x p e r i e n c e , has i d e n t i f i e d t h a t many r e s e a r c h e r s have concluded t h a t WIN f a i l e d (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1 9 8 2 ) . On the o t h e r hand, one s p e c i f i c P u b l i c S e r v i c e Employment Program under WIN which was c l o s e r i n d e s i g n t o the I S J , r e p o r t e d p o s i t i v e outcomes f o r 75% of p a r t i c i p a n t s (Garvin, 1978). Auerbach r e p o r t e d o n l y 22% employment a t t e r m i n a t i o n i n a study of hard c o r e WIN p a r t i c i p a n t s ( c i t e d i n G a r v i n , 1978). The Omnibus Budget R e c o n c i l i a t i o n A c t (OBRA) of 1981 o f f e r e d s t a t e s the o p p o r t u n i t y t o r e s t r u c t u r e the r e l a t i o n s h i p between work and w e l f a r e i n f i v e year experiments under the Manpower Demonstration Research C o r p o r a t i o n . E l e v e n s t a t e s responded w i t h programs which v a r i e d w i d e l y i n o b j e c t i v e s , content and the o b l i g a t i o n o f c l i e n t s t o p a r t i c i p a t e . Many were workfare o r i e n t e d , i n which w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s had t o work t o c o n t i n u e t o c o l l e c t a i d e . The Maine and New J e r s e y demonstration p r o j e c t s were the most s i m i l a r t o the I S J program, w i t h v o l u n t a r y p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n on-the-job t r a i n i n g programs funded through t h e d i v e r s i o n of - 82 -AFDC funds. In Maine, where employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s are l i m i t e d , the p r o j e c t worked c l o s e l y w i t h economic development agencies t o p l a c e c l i e n t s i n newly c r e a t e d j o b s . P r e l i m i n a r y r e s u l t s suggest t h a t 70% of p a r t i c i p a n t s found work ( P e t i t & Wilcox, 1986). The A l b e r t a Employment S k i l l s Development P r o j e c t has r e p o r t e d t h a t i n s i x month follow-up, approximately one t h i r d of p a r t i c i p a n t s had achieved f u l l time employment. The r e s u l t s appear t o c o n f i r m the t r e n d noted i n American program e v a l u a t i o n s , t h a t the more s u c c e s s f u l outcomes have accrued t o the l e s s disadvantaged, i n t h i s case r e c i p i e n t s who had been on w e l f a r e l e s s t h a t s i x months p r i o r t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n . In the U n i t e d Kingdom i t has been suggested t h a t poor r e s u l t s a t t h e c o n c l u s i o n of employment programs may o n l y be a measure o f how d i f f i c u l t i t i s f o r a l l l o n g term unemployed t o f i n d work (Ashby, 1985). The i n c r e a s e d l i k e l i h o o d of p a r t i c i p a n t s t o o b t a i n employment has been suggested as a more meaningful measure of program outcome than a b s o l u t e measures of the employment outcome a t the end of the program. U n i t e d Kingdom e s t i m a t e s of t h i s i n c r e a s e d l i k e l i h o o d o f o b t a i n i n g employment range from two (Holland, 1982) t o t h r e e times (Ashby, 1985). T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n about the d i f f i c u l t y f o r the l o n g term unemployed t o f i n d work i s supported by evidence from the U.S. workfare e x p e r i e n c e t h a t found the poor w i l l i n g t o work. In the o p i n i o n of one r e s e a r c h e r , workfare d i d not c r e a t e t h e work e t h i c , i t found i t ! (Gueron, 1986). - 83 -Summary and I m p l i c a t i o n s of the Previous Research There are v e r y few employment i n i t i a t i v e s from the e x t e n s i v e American and more l i m i t e d Canadian r e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e t h a t c o u l d be d i r e c t l y compared t o the I S J program, which was the focus of t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t . Most of the r e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e on employment programs t a r g e t e d on the l o n g term unemployed, has e v a l u a t e d the impact o f s u p p l y - s i d e program i n t e r v e n t i o n s , whereas the I S J program should be r e c o g n i z e d as an employment i n i t i a t i v e which has an impact on both the s u p p l y and demand f o r l a b o u r . N e v e r t h e l e s s , as a work-based employment i n i t i a t i v e , the I S J program i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h programming t r e n d s e v i d e n t i n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e . S i n c e the mid 70's, employment i n i t i a t i v e s have been l o c a t e d c l o s e r t o the work s i t e w i t h g r e a t e r emphasis on s k i l l a c q u i s i t i o n on-the-job. The r e c e n t t a r g e t i n g o f the I S J on the more disadvantaged of the l o n g term unemployed, s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s , may be a p o l i c y response t o e v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h which has f r e q u e n t l y i d e n t i f i e d t h a t t h e g r e a t e s t employment impact i s c o n c e n t r a t e d among those p a r t i c i p a n t groups who are c o n s i d e r e d harder t o employ. Outcomes f o r programs wi t h designs somewhat s i m i l a r t o the I S J v a r y w i d e l y and r e s e a r c h evidence from the e v a l u a t i o n of these employment i n i t i a t i v e s i s not always c o n s i s t e n t i n i d e n t i f y i n g f a c t o r s t h a t p r e d i c t more s u c c e s s f u l outcomes. N e v e r t h e l e s s , the l i t e r a t u r e g e n e r a l l y confirmed the c l i n i c a l i mpressions of employment c o u n s e l l o r s and CEC management, and supported the f o u r g u i d i n g r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s . C l i e n t - 84 -c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , program i n t e r v e n t i o n , agency a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s have a l l been i d e n t i f i e d as f a c t o r s t h a t p r e d i c t success i n a t l e a s t some of the l i t e r a t u r e on p r e v i o u s e v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h . The c l i n i c a l impressions of experienced CEC p e r s o n n e l which emerged from the c o n s u l t a t i o n process d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter Three under the Patton u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d r e s e a r c h model, as w e l l as evidence from p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h on employment i n i t i a t i v e s , supported both the c o n c e p t u a l r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and the assumptions behind t h i s I S J r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t . - 85 -CHAPTER V RESEARCH DESIGN C o n t r o l over Phenomena t o be S t u d i e d The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n was experimental i n t h a t the study examined the impact o f the I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job (ISJ) program, as an employment i n t e r v e n t i o n , on t h e sample of program p a r t i c i p a n t s . F u r t h e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n would l a b e l i t an u n c o n t r o l l e d , s i n g l e group experiment (Reid & Smith, 1981) i n a f i e l d environment (Crane, 1986). Although the u n c o n t r o l l e d s i n g l e group experiment i s the most f r e q u e n t l y used e v a l u a t i o n d e s i g n i n s o c i a l work, i t has been i d e n t i f i e d as a q u e s t i o n a b l e s t r a t e g y f o r a s s e s s i n g i n t e r v e n t i o n e f f e c t s (Reid & Smith, 1981). These same c r i t i c s , however, acknowledge the e x p l o r a t o r y f u n c t i o n o f t h i s d e s i g n p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e development of i n t e r v e n t i o n models. The r e l a t i v e l y e a r l y stage o f the implementation of the I S J program (13 months a t the time the study was i n i t i a t e d ) and t h e more r e c e n t t a r g e t i n g o f t h i s i n t e r v e n t i o n on a s p e c i f i c sub group of the l o n g term unemployed p o p u l a t i o n , makes the u n c o n t r o l l e d group d e s i g n p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t f o r an e x p l o r a t i o n of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the i n t e r v e n t i o n . Research c o n s u l t a t i o n s w i t h key decisionmakers a t the employment c e n t r e c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e d a d e s i r e on the p a r t of both management and c o u n s e l l i n g s t a f f t o r e f i n e the program f o r g r e a t e r impact on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e - 86 -r e c i p i e n t s , as the s p e c i f i c t a r g e t group f o r the expanded employment i n i t i a t i v e . The o t h e r f a c t o r which minimized the disadvantage o f u s i n g an u n c o n t r o l l e d d e s i g n i s the p o p u l a t i o n which was chosen f o r study. The outcome of the i n t e r v e n t i o n was a s s e s s e d i n r e l a t i o n t o employment outcomes, measured by the p a r t i c i p a n t ' s employment s t a t u s immediately upon completion of the program and a l s o measured by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s ' assessment of o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t from the program. The c o n t i n u i n g n ature of the unemployment of p a r t i c i p a n t s f o r 24 weeks immediately p r i o r t o the i n t e r v e n t i o n , minimizes the r i s k of p o s i t i v e employment outcomes o c c u r r i n g without the i n t e r v e n t i o n . In o t h e r words, the p o p u l a t i o n chosen f o r study by v i r t u e o f the b a s i c e l i g i b i l i t y c r i t e r i a f o r the program, minimizes the p o t e n t i a l f o r overstatement of the impact of the i n t e r v e n t i o n on employment outcomes. N e v e r t h e l e s s , the absence o f d e s i g n c o n t r o l s suggests t h a t o n l y t e n t a t i v e judgments o f the impact of independent v a r i a b l e s on the dependent outcome v a r i a b l e s were p o s s i b l e from the study. Sampling Design A 100% sample of the p o p u l a t i o n of I S J program p a r t i c i p a n t s from one employment c e n t r e area was chosen f o r the study. T h i s was t h e r e f o r e a n o n p r o b a b i l i t y sample, f u r t h e r c l a s s i f i e d as an a c c i d e n t a l , convenience or a v a i l a b i l i t y sample (Monette, 1986; R eid & Smith, 1981). S t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e was used t o measure - 87 -the s t r e n g t h o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the independent v a r i a b l e s (Input and Op p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s ) and the dependent v a r i a b l e s (Output) i d e n t i f i e d i n F i g u r e I of Chapter Four. Very l i t t l e was known of the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s o f the sample of p a r t i c i p a n t s compared t o a l l I S J p a r t i c i p a n t s i n g r e a t e r Vancouver, the lower mainland or even B r i t i s h Columbia. The sampling d e s i g n t h e r e f o r e l i m i t e d the g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s which c o u l d be made t o o t h e r employment c e n t r e areas, from the f i n d i n g s o f the r e s e a r c h . Domains The u n i t s were the i n d i v i d u a l s who had been s u b s i d i z e d i n the s p e c i f i c j o b s which had been c r e a t e d under t h e I S J program. The p o p u l a t i o n chosen f o r study was a l l i n d i v i d u a l s who had p a r t i c i p a t e d i n and completed the I S J program between September 1985, when the program was f i r s t i n t r o d u c e d , and October 1986 i n one geographic a r e a . The geographic area corresponded w i t h the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y area o f the E a s t Hastings Canada Employment Centre. T h i s area i s g e n e r a l l y known as E a s t Vancouver and North Burnaby, bounded by Bu r r a r d I n l e t on the n o r t h and F i r s t Avenue and the Lougheed Highway on the south, from Main S t r e e t t o Burnaby Mountain. The treatment which was s t u d i e d was the I S J program i n t e r v e n t i o n . The v a r i a b l e s chosen f o r study f e l l i n t o t h e t h r e e main groups i d e n t i f i e d i n F i g u r e I p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter Four; Input, O p p o r t u n i t y and Output c a t e g o r i e s . The c h o i c e o f c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (A) as measures of i n p u t , and the - 88 -p a r t i c u l a r measures of program i n t e r v e n t i o n (B) and CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n (C) f a c t o r s as the treatment, was s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by d e c i s i o n makers a t the employment c e n t r e . V a r i a b l e s which measured l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s as the o v e r a l l employment co n t e x t w i t h i n which the j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s had been c r e a t e d , were s e l e c t e d i n c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h the r e g i o n a l economist from Employment and Immigration Canada who s p e c i a l i z e s i n t h e metro Vancouver l a b o u r market. Two modes of o b s e r v a t i o n were used i n the study. E x i s t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l d a t a which had been c o l l e c t e d f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and a c c o u n t a b i l i t y purposes were supplemented w i t h a s e l f - a d m i n i s t e r e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e . The s e t t i n g was the i n d i v i d u a l work s i t e s where j o b s had been s u b s i d i z e d under the I S J program. Although the work s i t e s v a r i e d by employer, each was an on-the-job work s e t t i n g . S i z e and H e t e r o g e n e i t y The sample s i z e was 64 i n d i v i d u a l s , the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of IS J program p a r t i c i p a n t s who had completed the program by October 31, 1986. The b a s i c e l i g i b i l i t y c r i t e r i a f o r the program (unemployed 24 out of the p r e v i o u s 3 0 weeks) i d e n t i f i e d the sample as a r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous sample i n terms of the unemployment s t a t u s of the i n d i v i d u a l s . A l l p a r t i c i p a n t s , t h e r e f o r e , by v i r t u e of t h e i r b a s i c program e l i g i b i l i t y , met the s h o r t e r term s i x month c r i t e r i a as l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s , i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter One. Because o f t h i s homogeneity, the study made no attempt t o g e n e r a l i z e i t s f i n d i n g s t o the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of the unemployed. The study was c a u t i o u s about the g e n e r a l i z a t i o n o f f i n d i n g s t o I S J p a r t i c i p a n t s i n o t h e r employment c e n t r e areas o f Vancouver because of a l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n on the s i m i l a r i t y o f oth e r long term unemployed p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC c l i e n t group. Although i t i s g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t o t h e r CEC's serve h i g h e t h n i c p o p u l a t i o n s and c l i e n t s w i t h r e l a t i v e l y low income and low e d u c a t i o n l e v e l s s i m i l a r t o t h e E a s t H a s t i n g s o f f i c e , t h e r e was no evidence t h a t these g e n e r a l c l i e n t groups are I S J program u s e r s i n e i t h e r the E a s t H a s t i n g s o r o t h e r CEC areas. G e n e r a l i z a t i o n s from the h i g h o r i e n t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n the Eas t H a s t i n g s area c o u l d not be made t o o t h e r e t h n i c groups i n ot h e r CEC are a s . In f a c t , g e n e r a l i z a t i o n w i t h i n t h i s v e r y broad e t h n i c c a t e g o r y may a l s o be m i s l e a d i n g due t o the d i v e r s i t y o f the o r i e n t a l p o p u l a t i o n . The study was t h e r e f o r e c a u t i o u s about g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s and c o n f i n e d them t o f u t u r e program p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h i s one employment c e n t r e area. The sample was, however, expected t o be heterogeneous i n i t s v a r i a t i o n over the range of other socio-demographic c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as w e l l as the i n d i v i d u a l measures o f the employment o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d i n F i g u r e I . In d e s i g n i n g the study t o f i t the l i m i t e d time a v a i l a b l e f o r r e s e a r c h , a t r a d e - o f f was made between sample s i z e and the data base. Because the u n d e r l y i n g purpose o f the study was t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r d e c i s i o n makers i n one p a r t i c u l a r employment c e n t r e , an e x i s t i n g data base enhanced by o r i g i n a l data c o l l e c t e d through a q u e s t i o n n a i r e , was chosen over a - 90 -p o p u l a t i o n expanded t o i n c l u d e program p a r t i c i p a n t s from o t h e r employment c e n t r e areas. Only i n so f a r as t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f the l o n g term unemployed i n other employment c e n t r e areas compares f a v o r a b l y w i t h those i n the E a s t H a s t i n g s area, c o u l d the sample be c o n s i d e r e d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of a l a r g e r p o p u l a t i o n of l o n g term unemployed. Timing of Data C o l l e c t i o n  i n R e l a t i o n t o Program I n t e r v e n t i o n The r e s e a r c h was r e t r o s p e c t i v e i n t h a t d a t a c o l l e c t i o n o c c u r r e d ex p o s t f a c t o . The i n p u t f a c t o r s were measures o f c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , e x t r a c t e d from data coded by c o u n s e l l o r s p r i o r t o the i n t e r v e n t i o n , as p a r t o f the c l i e n t r e f e r r a l p r o c e s s . The program i n t e r v e n t i o n and CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n v a r i a b l e s as w e l l as the l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s were a l l measured and r e c o r d e d ex p o s t f a c t o . The d e s i g n p r o v i d e d f o r no r e p e t i t i o n of measurements. T h i s c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l nature of the measurement o f v a r i a b l e s i s acknowledged as a l i m i t a t i o n of the study, i n t h a t employment outcomes are o p t i m a l l y measured l o n g i t u d i n a l l y . M e t h o d o l o g i c a l O r i e n t a t i o n The m e t h o d o l o g i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n of the study was q u a n t i t a t i v e or what has been c a l l e d the dominant m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigm (Patton, 1978). The v a r i a b l e s chosen f o r study were i d e n t i f i e d - 91 -d u r i n g c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and managers at the employment c e n t r e . T h e i r c l i n i c a l i mpressions were t h a t these v a r i a b l e s i n f l u e n c e the outcome of the I S J program f o r i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i c i p a n t s . These v a r i a b l e s were q u a n t i f i a b l e and knowing the s t r e n g t h of any r e l a t i o n s h i p between them or the so-c a l l e d c a u s a l l i n k a g e s , would enable decisionmakers t o implement the program more e f f e c t i v e l y f o r f u t u r e p a r t i c i p a n t s . The r e s e a r c h methodology i s t h e r e f o r e congruent w i t h the phenomenon chosen f o r study, an important f e a t u r e i n the u t i l i z a t i o n -focused o r i e n t a t i o n o f t h i s r e s e a r c h (Patton, 1978). Data C o l l e c t i o n Almost a l l the c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and most o f the program i n t e r v e n t i o n and CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n v a r i a b l e s were e x t r a c t e d from e x i s t i n g c o n t r a c t r e c o r d s , which had been pre-coded by employment c o u n s e l l o r s a t time c l i e n t s were documented f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the program. These data are r o u t i n e l y e n t e r e d and s t o r e d on computer i n M o n t r e a l and a p r i n t out of s e l e c t e d i n f o r m a t i o n was r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e when requested i n November. Another secondary data source was used t o i d e n t i f y the two v a r i a b l e s which measured economic c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e l o c a l l a b o u r market. The monthly Labour Market Survey f o r g r e a t e r Vancouver, produced by R e g i o n a l Economic S e r v i c e s of Employment and Immigration Canada, i d e n t i f i e s v a r i o u s measures o f l a b o u r market a c t i v i t y s p e c i f i e d by seven d i g i t o c c u p a t i o n a l codes from the - 92 -Canadian C l a s s i f i c a t i o n and D i c t i o n a r y Occupations (CCDO). The two economic v a r i a b l e s were e x t r a c t e d from t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n source. The r e s e a r c h e r was ch a l l e n g e d , w i t h i n the c o n t e x t o f her a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f i e l d work, t o demonstrate the u t i l i t y o f these e x i s t i n g data sources i n a f i e l d experiment. The r e l a t i v e economy of the r e s e a r c h e r ' s time was a g u i d i n g f a c t o r i n choosing the modes of o b s e r v a t i o n . P r o j e c t r e l e v a n t s e c t i o n s from the e x t e n s i v e c l i e n t and I S J c o n t r a c t d a t a base s t o r e d on computer were e a s i l y e x t r a c t e d on one p r i n t - o u t t o keep the amount o f r e s e a r c h data manageable. M i s s i n g data which can be a problem i n e x i s t i n g data sources appeared not t o be an i s s u e when the da t a were i n i t i a l l y reviewed. There had been v e r y l i t t l e change i n the c o u n s e l l i n g s t a f f who i n i t i a l l y documented and coded c l i e n t and program data d u r i n g the t h i r t e e n months under review. S i m i l a r l y , t h e r e had been no changes i n the method o f r e c o r d i n g data, i n t h i s r e l a t i v e l y new program, so t h a t the h i g h q u a l i t y o f the data was judged t o have been maintained throughout the review p e r i o d . M i s s i n g data were, however, a problem w i t h the use of the Labour Market Survey f o r the Lower Mainland as a da t a source f o r the l o c a l l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e s . Other e x i s t i n g l a b o u r market i n f o r m a t i o n sources a v a i l a b l e w i t h i n the Employment and Immigration Commission were ex p l o r e d ; however, t h e r e were two d i s t i n c t disadvantages t o these a l t e r n a t e data s o u r c e s . They e i t h e r c o n t a i n e d l e s s s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n i d e n t i f i e d o n l y by f o u r d i g i t CCDO codes v e r s u s t h e complete - 93 -seven d i g i t o c c u p a t i o n a l codes a c c e s s i b l e through t h e Labour Market Survey, o r they i d e n t i f i e d more aggregate p r o v i n c i a l l a b o u r market i n f o r m a t i o n i n s t e a d of lower mainland data. The h y p o t h e s i s b e i n g t e s t e d under r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n number f o u r , was t h a t l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n the s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n a l area a f f e c t e d outcomes, t h e r e f o r e the study coped w i t h e x t e n s i v e m i s s i n g data i n t h i s area and a d j u s t e d methods of s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s t o account f o r i t . These secondary data sources were supplemented w i t h a b r i e f , s e l f - a d m i n i s t e r e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e completed by the same employment c o u n s e l l o r s who had o r i g i n a l l y r e f e r r e d the c l i e n t s t o the program. T h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e i s i n c l u d e d as Appendix B. Very e a r l y i n the p r o j e c t , the c o n s u l t a t i o n p r o c e s s a t the CEC i d e n t i f i e d c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and employment o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s which were thought t o i n f l u e n c e program outcome, but were not a v a i l a b l e i n e x i s t i n g data sources and as they had not been documented d u r i n g r o u t i n e c o n t r a c t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . The r e s e a r c h e r c o n s i d e r e d u s i n g the employers who had sponsored c o n t r a c t s and/or the p r e v i o u s program p a r t i c i p a n t s as o r i g i n a l d ata sources. However, g i v e n the time a v a i l a b l e f o r the study, the employment c o u n s e l l o r s , who had o r i g i n a l l y r e f e r r e d the c l i e n t s t o the s u b s i d i z e d jobs and who had o f t e n been the o f f i c e r s who monitored the I S J c o n t r a c t s , were c o n s i d e r e d the b e s t s i n g l e supplementary data source. These r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s c o u l d , f o r example, assess the commitment o f immediate s u p e r v i s o r s and comment on whether t h e r e had been evidence o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r c a r e e r advancement i n the - 94 -s u b s i d i z e d work s e t t i n g w h i l e supplementing t h e da t a w i t h p e r s o n a l knowledge o f the i n d i v i d u a l c l i e n t case. While some of t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n was documented i n n a r r a t i v e form i n m o n i t o r i n g r e p o r t s c o n t a i n e d i n c o n t r a c t f i l e s , the l i m i t e d time a v a i l a b l e f o r t he study aga i n f o r c e d the r e s e a r c h e r t o r e l y on the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r ' s measurement of these v a r i a b l e s . The advantages o f u n i f o r m i t y and h i g h c o d a b i l i t y o f the data f a c i l i t a t e d t h i s method of data c o l l e c t i o n . D i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p o t e n t i a l l y low response r a t e s from b i a s e d respondents o r a poor o v e r a l l r a t e o f r e t u r n were not i s s u e s i n the use of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . One hundred p e r c e n t of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were re t u r n e d , w i t h v e r y l i t t l e f ollow-up by the r e s e a r c h e r r e q u i r e d t o o b t a i n t h i s h i g h r a t e o f r e t u r n . V a l i d i t y and R e l i a b i l i t y o f Data The degree o f a b s t r a c t i o n of the v a r i a b l e s s t u d i e d was low. The l o g i c and common sense o f the r e s e a r c h e r which s u b j e c t i v e l y a ssessed the v a l i d i t y o f the measures chosen f o r the v a r i a b l e s , was enhanced by the c o n s u l t a t i o n process a t t h e CEC. Experienced employment c o u n s e l l o r s and program managers p r o v i d e d v a l u a b l e feedback on whether the o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s appeared t o be l o g i c a l measures of the v a r i a b l e s . D i r e c t measures of most o f the socio-demographic data and many o f the program i n t e r v e n t i o n v a r i a b l e s were e v i d e n t i n the a v a i l a b l e data. Again, because the l e v e l o f a b s t r a c t i o n o f t h e concepts being measured was low, the r e s e a r c h e r was c o n f i d e n t t h a t face - 95 -v a l i d i t y would not be a problem which had a l r e a d y been entrenched i n the e x i s t i n g data sources (Monette, 1986). Supplementation of the a v a i l a b l e data w i t h a q u e s t i o n n a i r e meant t h a t the r e s e a r c h e r was not tempted t o modify o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s of v a r i a b l e s t o f i t the a v a i l a b l e d a t a i n an i n d u c t i v e approach t o the r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s (Monette, 1986). Consequently, the r e s e a r c h e r was c o n f i d e n t t h a t t h e chosen measures had l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h the t h e o r e t i c a l d e f i n i t i o n s of the v a r i a b l e s . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was p r e - t e s t e d a t the C o u n s e l l i n g Resource Centre t h a t handles the I S J c o n t r a c t s f o r the Tenth Avenue CEC, another metro Vancouver employment c e n t r e which s e r v e s a c l i e n t p o p u l a t i o n and employer base somewhat s i m i l a r t o the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC. The p r e - t e s t g e n e r a l l y confirmed t h e c o n t e n t v a l i d i t y of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . One q u e s t i o n was expanded based on c o u n s e l l o r feedback, and two measurement s c a l e s were a d j u s t e d t o more adequately d i s t r i b u t e responses f o r the I S J t a r g e t group. The e x p e r i e n c e d employment c o u n s e l l o r s who documented the c l i e n t s , b o t h t h e two CEC c o u n s e l l o r s and t h e few cases i n which outre a c h p r o j e c t c o u n s e l l o r s had documented c l i e n t s , as w e l l as the v e r y b a s i c n ature of the c l i e n t and program d a t a e x t r a c t e d , assured the r e s e a r c h e r of i n t e r - c o d e r r e l i a b i l i t y o f the computer d a t a . There was no f u r t h e r t e s t o f t h i s i n t e r - c o d e r or i n t e r - o b s e r v e r r e l i a b i l i t y . A comparison o f o r i g i n a l c o n t r a c t documents w i t h the computer p r i n t out was a check on t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f key punch personnel who had o r i g i n a l l y i n p u t the data. A random s e l e c t i o n of 10% of c o n t r a c t s , i d e n t i f i e d two e r r o r s i n 104 p i e c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n . Because the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n r e q u i r e d no r e p e t i t i o n of measurement, the s t a b i l i t y or c o n s i s t e n c y of the measures over time was not an i s s u e . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n c l u d e d p r i m a r i l y s i n g l e measurements of c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s so t h a t i n t e r n a l c o n s i s t e n c y o r homogeneity of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e as a measurement instrument was not a r e l i a b i l i t y i s s u e i n the study. The two dependant v a r i a b l e s were an e x c e p t i o n , i n t h a t each was intended t o be a measure of the employment b e n e f i t t o the c l i e n t from program p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The l a t t e r , o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t based on the o p i n i o n o f the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r , was a more i n c l u s i v e measure which c o n s i d e r e d the immediate employment outcome but c o u l d have encompassed broader s o c i a l or p s y c h o l o g i c a l outcomes as w e l l as any a c q u i r e d employment s k i l l s which were not immediately e v i d e n t through employment. The agreement i n rank o r d e r s between these two dependent v a r i a b l e s was measured u s i n g Spearman's rank o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t (rho) and i n f a c t , was found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 1% l e v e l (rho = .45, w i t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e of .40 a t the .01 l e v e l ) . Data A n a l y s i s With 64 u n i t s o f a n a l y s i s and 2 6 v a r i a b l e s o r items o f i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d on each u n i t , the d a t a a n a l y s i s was done by computer, u s i n g the Michigan I n t e r a c t i v e Data A n a l y s i s System - 97 -(MIDAS) from the S t a t i s t i c a l Research L a b o r a t o r y o f the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan. C o n s i s t e n t w i t h the d e s c r i p t i v e f u n c t i o n of the r e s e a r c h , u n i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s was used t o d e s c r i b e I S J p a r t i c i p a n t s and the program over the review p e r i o d . These r e s u l t s were p r e s e n t e d i n d e s c r i p t i v e paragraphs w i t h summary t a b l e s and some histograms, t o d e s c r i b e each v a r i a b l e . A p p r o p r i a t e measures of c e n t r a l tendency, based on the l e v e l of measurement o f the v a r i a b l e s , and measures of the v a r i a b i l i t y o r d i s p e r s i o n of the data were p r e s e n t e d as d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s . The g u i d i n g q u e s t i o n s behind the r e s e a r c h r e q u i r e d b i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s o f the data t o i d e n t i f y r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the independent v a r i a b l e s and the dependent employment outcome v a r i a b l e s . The f o r m a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n d e s i g n w i t h h i g h u t i l i z a t i o n p o t e n t i a l b u i l t i n t o the r e s e a r c h , through the P a t t on e v a l u a t i o n model, meant t h a t evidence o f b i v a r i a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p s c o u l d p o t e n t i a l l y i n f l u e n c e program implementation. I f c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , or o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o the program i n t e r v e n t i o n , CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , or l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d as c o r r e l a t e s o f success, c l i e n t s e l e c t i o n procedures, c o n t r a c t d e s i g n and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , even program marketing might be a d j u s t e d w i t h i n the CEC t o improve the o v e r a l l employment outcome f o r the t a r g e t group. S c a t t e r p l o t s were generated on the computer t o p i c t o r i a l l y i d e n t i f y the shape, d i r e c t i o n and s t r e n g t h o f a s s o c i a t i o n s , e a r l y i n the data a n a l y s i s . A p p r o p r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l measures of - 98 -a s s o c i a t i o n were then used t o d e s c r i b e the magnitude o r s t r e n g t h of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between v a r i a b l e s . S c a t t e r p l o t s were a l s o h e l p f u l t o ensure t h a t n o n - l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , not e v i d e n t i n s t a t i s t i c a l measures of a s s o c i a t i o n , were not o v e r l o o k e d i n the d ata a n a l y s i s . Because of the more r e c e n t t a r g e t i n g o f the I S J program s p e c i f i c a l l y on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s , t h e data a n a l y s i s a l s o focused on t h i s sub-sample of a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the study. These i n d i v i d u a l s were i d e n t i f i a b l e as one l e v e l o f measurement on the v a r i a b l e which c a t e g o r i c a l l y i d e n t i f i e d the p r i n c i p l e employment disadvantage of the c l i e n t . The ' t 1 t e s t and Chi-Square t e s t s were used t o t e s t whether s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s (SAR's) c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d as a d i s t i n c t sub group from non-SAR p a r t i c i p a n t s , over the range o f i n p u t , o p p o r t u n i t y and output f a c t o r s . Because o f the n o n - p r o b a b i l i t y sampling d e s i g n , the s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t r e s u l t s c o u l d not be used t o draw i n f e r e n c e s t o a w e l l d e f i n e d p o p u l a t i o n group from which t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s were drawn. The s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s c o u l d o n l y be used as convenient standards of comparison between the sample i n t h i s study and the r e s u l t s which would be expected by chance alone. L i m i t a t i o n s of the Study The g r e a t e s t l i m i t a t i o n of the study was the time frame of the r e s e a r c h ; a time frame imposed by the one y e a r Masters of S o c i a l Work program. T h i s time frame l i m i t e d the r e s e a r c h - 99 -d e s i g n , which i t s e l f imposed major l i m i t a t i o n s on the study. O p e r a t i o n a l requirements w i t h i n the CEC meant t h a t l i m i t e d s t a f f r e s o u r c e s c o u l d be a l l o c a t e d t o support the r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t y . Support was l i m i t e d t o the c o n s u l t a t i o n time between s t a f f and the r e s e a r c h e r , as w e l l as the time f o r c o u n s e l l i n g s t a f f t o complete t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . The u n c o n t r o l l e d nature of the experiment meant t h a t o n l y t e n t a t i v e judgments c o u l d be made from the r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s . Although the c o n c e p t u a l d e s i g n was t o i d e n t i f y which i n p u t and o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e d employment outcomes, n o t h i n g was known about the employment l e v e l s which would have been achieved by comparable c l i e n t groups not exposed t o the same program i n t e r v e n t i o n . Any t e n t a t i v e judgments which d i d emerge from the r e s e a r c h i n support of the r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s were f u r t h e r l i m i t e d by the n o n - p r o b a b i l i t y sampling d e s i g n . R e i d and Smith v e r y c l e a r l y i d e n t i f y t h i s l i m i t a t i o n , s t a t i n g t h a t w i t h a n o n - r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample, one makes judgments about p o s s i b l e a t y p i c a l i t i e s and b i a s e s of the sample and on the b a s i s o f these judgments a r r i v e s a t informed s p e c u l a t i o n (Reid and Smith, 1081, p, 179). Very l i t t l e i s known about the s i m i l a r i t y o r d i f f e r e n c e s between the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC c l i e n t p o p u l a t i o n and o t h e r m e t r o p o l i t a n CEC a r e a s . Although i t i s g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC shares a c l i e n t base c h a r a c t e r i z e d by r e l a t i v e l y low e d u c a t i o n and low income l e v e l s s i m i l a r t o the area served from the West Tenth Avenue CEC, and t h a t t h i s area - 100 -has a h i g h o r i e n t a l p o p u l a t i o n , w h i l e the F r a s e r S t r e e t CEC s e r v e s a h i g h E a s t I n d i a n c l i e n t p o p u l a t i o n , i t was not p o s s i b l e t o g e n e r a l i z e the f i n d i n g s t o these o t h e r geographic areas. The informed s p e c u l a t i o n was l i m i t e d t o the f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n of I S J program p a r t i c i p a n t s and p r o j e c t sponsors i n the geographic area s e r v e d by the E a s t Hastings CEC. The immediate o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h f u n c t i o n of the r e s e a r c h was not compromised by t h i s d e s i g n f e a t u r e , however, the wider b e n e f i t which might have accrued t o o t h e r program managers i n o t h e r CEC areas, was d e f i n i t e l y l i m i t e d by the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . The data a n a l y s i s i t s e l f l i m i t e d the study, i n t h a t i t d i d not i n c l u d e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . Because of the l a r g e number o f independent v a r i a b l e s (26) and the s m a l l sample (64) a v a i l a b l e , i t was c l e a r t h a t m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s e s c o u l d not s a f e l y be used, as they would be v u l n e r a b l e t o s p u r i o u s l y i n f l a t e d f i n d i n g s . T h e r e f o r e o n l y b i v a r i a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p s were examined, w i t h the r e s u l t s used t o generate hypotheses and g u i d e l i n e s f o r both f u r t h e r enquiry and program p l a n n i n g . Both of the dependent v a r i a b l e s , the immediate employment outcome and the o v e r a l l b e n e f i t t o the c l i e n t from program p a r t i c i p a t i o n , a l s o departed v e r y w i d e l y from n o r m a l i t y , r e q u i r i n g the use of nonparametric measures of a s s o c i a t i o n as a p p r o p r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l procedures. I f t h e time had not been as l i m i t e d and t h e r e s e a r c h e r more experien c e d w i t h m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s , m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n might have i d e n t i f i e d the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l v a r i a n c e which c o u l d be accounted f o r by a l l the independent v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d - 101 -i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r program model. I f the model c o u l d have been shown t o account f o r even 15% of the outcome v a r i a n c e , i t c o u l d have been c o n s i d e r e d a worthwhile c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the program f i e l d , p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t h i s e x p l o r a t o r y r e s e a r c h stage. (Reid and Smith, 1981). However, wit h the t a s k r e c o g n i z e d as time consuming and the r e s u l t s weak and suspect f o r the reasons c i t e d e a r l i e r , m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s was not attempted. The study made no attempt t o measure the e f f e c t o f the I S J on the l o c a l l a b o u r market. T h i s i s d i s t i n c t from the f o u r t h r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n , which addressed the impact o f the l o c a l l a b o u r market on the I S J outcome. In the l a b o u r economic terms i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter Two, t h i s meant t h a t the study d i d not address the net i n c r e m e n t a l employment impact as the t r u e job c r e a t i o n e f f e c t of the I S J program. Meaningful measures o f the impact of employment programs on the l a b o u r market, are known t o be d i f f i c u l t t o i d e n t i f y (Bishop, F r a n l a s , Keeley, Monson & Robins, 1980), and i t would seem reasonable t o conclude t h a t the s i x t y - f o u r j o b s which were s u b s i d i z e d had almost n e g l i g i b l e impact on the o v e r a l l l a b o u r market w i t h i n the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC area. N e v e r t h e l e s s , o f the s i x t y - f o u r j obs which were s u b s i d i z e d , the study c o u l d make no c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the debate i n the economic l i t e r a t u r e over whether the I S J program t r u l y c r e a t e d t h i s number of jobs as a c o u n t e r c y c l i c a l employment i n i t i a t i v e , o r whether i t a f f e c t e d the s t r u c t u r e o f employment by s h i f t i n g the burden of unemployment and s u b s t i t u t e d l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s f o r non-target group workers. - 102 -Another l i m i t a t i o n o f the study was the measurement of employment outcomes a t one p o i n t i n time, immediately upon completion o f the program. L o n g i t u d i n a l c l i e n t f o l l o w - u p a t l e a s t s i x months and p r e f e r a b l y a f t e r one o r two ye a r s as w e l l , i s a b e t t e r measure o f program outcome. Some r e s e a r c h e r s have concluded t h a t t h e r e i s v e r y l i t t l e evidence t h a t p o s t program placement i s c o r r e l a t e d w i t h long-run success r e s u l t i n g from employment and t r a i n i n g programs ( c i t e d i n C o f f i n , 1983). P o s i t i v e employment outcomes measured immediately upon completion may decay over time. On the o t h e r hand, the investment i n human c a p i t a l r e p r e s e n t e d by the on-the-job t r a i n i n g may not be r e a l i z e d through immediate employment, e s p e c i a l l y i f the sp o n s o r i n g employer has been unable t o h i r e the worker a t the end of the subsidy p e r i o d . Such l o n g i t u d i n a l follow-up might t r a c k employment p a t t e r n s which a l t e r n a t e between s h o r t term employment and unemployment ins u r a n c e o r s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e . T h i s evidence might then be used t o address whether t h i s p a r t i c u l a r program i n t e r v e n t i o n a f f e c t s t h e o s c i l l a t i n g employment p a t t e r n which i s f r e q u e n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the l o n g term unemployed (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1981). I f the u n d e r l y i n g program assumption t h a t a r e c e n t , f u l l time employment r e c o r d p r o v i d e d by the I S J g e n e r a l l y improves the c o m p e t i t i v e l a b o u r market p o s i t i o n o f the l o n g term unemployed, one would expect t h i s employment p a t t e r n t o change subsequent t o program p a r t i c i p a t i o n . - 103 -E t h i c a l Issues i n the Research The r e s e a r c h d i d not a f f e c t the l i v e s o f the I S J program p a r t i c i p a n t s who were the u n i t s of a n a l y s i s i n the p r o j e c t , as the r e s e a r c h p r o c e s s i n v o l v e d no d i r e c t c o n t a c t w i t h these p r e v i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s . A l l p a r t i c i p a n t s and sponsors r o u t i n e l y complete p o r t i o n s o f a C l i e n t Information sheet which acknowledges t h a t the EIC undertakes f o l l o w - u p surveys and which a u t h o r i z e s the use of c l i e n t and program i n f o r m a t i o n f o r program e v a l u a t i o n . The e t h i c a l i s s u e of c a r r y i n g out independent r e s e a r c h w h i l e working w i t h i n the agency has a l r e a d y been addressed a t the c o n c l u s i o n of Chapter Three, i n the c o n t e x t of t h e i n t e g r a t i o n of t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t w i t h the f i e l d placement o f the Masters of S o c i a l Work program. The r e s e a r c h e r requested t h a t the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC manager o b t a i n a p p r o v a l f o r the p r o j e c t and a copy o f t h i s r e q u e s t i s i n c l u d e d as Appendix C. Approval was o b t a i n e d from the Metro Vancouver D i s t r i c t Manager i n November 1986. The r e s e a r c h was conducted as an i n d i v i d u a l c l a s s p r o j e c t i n S o c i a l Work 553, i n accordance w i t h e t h i c a l g u i d e l i n e s f o r the course, approved by the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Committee on E t h i c s f o r the p e r i o d August 1986 t o August 1987 ( E t h i c s Committee G u i d e l i n e s , 1986). The UBC e t h i c s form i s i n c l u d e d as Appendix D. - 104 -CHAPTER VI FINDINGS U n i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (A) F i f t y e i g h t percent of the c l i e n t s who p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the ISJ program were male. Fi g u r e I I I i s a histogram which i d e n t i f i e s the age d i s t r i b u t i o n of p a r t i c i p a n t s a t the time they entered the program. The youngest p a r t i c i p a n t was 16, the o l d e s t was 60 years and the mean age was 29.3 years. T h i r t y percent of a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s were between 20 and 24 years of age and 41% of p a r t i c i p a n t s were aged 25 to 34 ye a r s . F i f t y two percent of p a r t i c i p a n t s f e l l i n t o what i s f r e q u e n t l y r e f e r r e d t o as the prime age working category, 25 t o 44 years. 20 1 11 n H 1! 1. 13 12 11 10 7 « 9 4 3 2 1 0 F I G U R E III Aa« Rang* ©< Participants 3 t I S E 1 FT^q F T T ^ F T n - I —'—*-i — — 9 0 - 9 4 9 0 - 9 0 « 0 - « 4 19—19 2 0 - 2 4 2 9 - 2 » 3 0 - 3 4 3 9 - 3 » 40--4-4 40-49 Ag* rang* in r « f » - 105 -The employment c o u n s e l l o r s who r e f e r c l i e n t s t o the program are r e q u i r e d a t the time of r e f e r r a l t o i d e n t i f y the p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage of the c l i e n t . T a b l e 9 l i s t s the p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage of p a r t i c i p a n t s and i d e n t i f i e s t h a t 78% of p a r t i c i p a n t s had one of t h r e e disadvantages or employment b a r r i e r s . Employment c o u n s e l l o r s i d e n t i f i e d t h a t 23% of a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s had a c u l t u r a l b a r r i e r as t h e i r p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage. T h i s category o f disadvantage d e f i n e d these p a r t i c i p a n t s as immigrant or refugee workers who had e x p e r i e n c e d d i f f i c u l t y adapting t o the Canadian way of l i f e . A s l i g h t l y s m a l l e r group (22%) were i n d i v i d u a l s whose l i f e s t y l e s over s e v e r a l y e a r s had been h e a v i l y dependent upon s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e and were i d e n t i f i e d as l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s . Table 9 P r i n c i p a l Employment Disadvantage C h a r a c t e r i s t i c Number Percent Hearing Impaired 1 1.6 L e a r n i n g D i s a b l e d 1 1.6 C h r o n i c Unemployed 2 3.1 E x - a l c o h o l i c 2 3.1 Language B a r r i e r 2 3.1 M o b i l i t y Impaired 3 4.7 Ex-inmate 3 4.7 Long Term Welfare R e c i p i e n t 14 21.9 C u l t u r a l B a r r i e r 15 23.4 Other S o c i a l Disadvantage 21 32.8 ALL 64 100.0 These f o u r t e e n i n d i v i d u a l s were the s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s (SAR's) who were compared t o other program p a r t i c i p a n t s as a sub-group, l a t e r i n the study. The l a r g e s t s i n g l e group of - 106 -p a r t i c i p a n t s (33%) had s o c i a l problems which were not i d e n t i f i e d s p e c i f i c a l l y under ot h e r c a t e g o r i e s but grouped t o g e t h e r as o t h e r s o c i a l b a r r i e r s t o employment. The e d u c a t i o n l e v e l of p a r t i c i p a n t s was h i g h e r than had been a n t i c i p a t e d by employment c o u n s e l l o r s , f o r a l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t group. Table 10 i d e n t i f i e s t h e e d u c a t i o n l e v e l . While 64% of p a r t i c i p a n t s had a t l e a s t a grade twelve e d u c a t i o n , o n l y 8% had achieved grade e i g h t o r l e s s . Table 10  E d u c a t i o n Completed Grade Number Percent 8 or l e s s 5 7.9 9 t o 11 18 28.6 12 31 49.2 13 or more 9 14.3 ALL 63 100.00 The c l i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n sheet completed on a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s , r e c o r d s l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n p a t t e r n s over the twelve months immediately p r i o r t o the I S J . T a b l e 11 summarizes these data. Seventy t h r e e p e r c e n t of p a r t i c i p a n t s had not had any work d u r i n g the twelve months immediately p r i o r t o the program. Some p a r t i c i p a n t s had not been a v a i l a b l e f o r work d u r i n g t h i s whole twelve month p e r i o d as f i v e i n d i v i d u a l s had attended s c h o o l f o r v a r y i n g p e r i o d s of time up t o nine months. F i v e i n d i v i d u a l s had a l s o been u n a v a i l a b l e f o r work f o r u n s p e c i f i e d reasons f o r - 107 -Table 11 Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the Twelve Months  Immediately P r i o r t o I S J Months Worked Unemployed Number Percent Number Percent None 47 73.4 0 0.0 1 - 3 12 18.8 1 1.6 4 - 6 4 6.3 6 9.4 7 - 9 1 1.6 9 14.1 10 - 12 0 0.0 48 75.1 ALL 64 100. 0 64 100.0 p e r i o d s of time l a s t i n g up t o nine months. Although not shown i n t h i s t a b l e , the data i d e n t i f i e d t h a t 63% of p a r t i c i p a n t s had been a v a i l a b l e f o r work d u r i n g the e n t i r e twelve months and had been unemployed f o r the whole year immediately p r i o r t o the I S J . T h i s r e s u l t showed t h a t p a r t i c i p a n t s not o n l y g e n e r a l l y met the s h o r t e r term, s i x month d e f i n i t i o n of l o n g term unemployment, but t h a t almost two t h i r d s of the c l i e n t s a l s o s a t i s f i e d the twelve month c r i t e r i a f r e q u e n t l y r e f e r r e d t o i n the p r o f e s s i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e on long term unemployment. The study attempted t o measure the l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n r e l a t i o n t o whether they had dependents and whether they had a p a r t n e r w i t h whom they c o u l d share t h i s f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . T h i s v a r i a b l e , which combined m a r i t a l s t a t u s w i t h the number of dependents, was measured on the f o u r p o i n t s c a l e i d e n t i f i e d i n T a b l e 12. The l e v e l of f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of program p a r t i c i p a n t s was g e n e r a l l y low. Seventy t h r e e percent of p a r t i c i p a n t s were s i n g l e w i t h no dependents and o n l y 4 i n d i v i d u a l s were s i n g l e - 108 -Table 12  L e v e l of Family R e s p o n s i b i l i t y L e v e l Number Percent S i n g l e w i t h no dependents 47 73.4 M a r r i e d or e q u i v a l e n t w i t h no dependents 2 3.1 M a r r i e d or e q u i v a l e n t w i t h dependents 11 17.2 S i n g l e w i t h dependents 4 6.3 ALL 64 100.0 w i t h dependents, the h i g h e s t a s s i g n e d l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . F i n a l l y , c o u n s e l l o r s were asked t o assess t h e work m o t i v a t i o n of p a r t i c i p a n t s a t the b e g i n n i n g of the I S J . T a b l e 13 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t i n the o p i n i o n of these r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s , 87% o f a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s demonstrated b e t t e r than average m o t i v a t i o n t o work at the s t a r t of the I S J . In f a c t , none of the p a r t i c i p a n t s was r e p o r t e d t o have been p o o r l y or v e r y p o o r l y motivated. Program I n t e r v e n t i o n (B) T a b l e 14 i d e n t i f i e s the jobs which were s u b s i d i z e d by major o c c u p a t i o n a l groupings a c c o r d i n g t o the Canadian C l a s s i f i c a t i o n and D i c t i o n a r y o f Occupations. S e v e n t y - e i g h t p e r c e n t of a l l s u b s i d i z e d j o b s f e l l i n t o t h r e e o c c u p a t i o n a l a r e a s : p r o c e s s i n g - 109 -Table 13 R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r ' s Assessment of  C l i e n t M o t i v a t i o n M o t i v a t i o n Number Percent Very High 10 15. 6 High 46 71.9 Average 8 12.5 Poor 0 0.0 Very Poor 0 0.0 ALL 64 100.0 Table 14 S u b s i d i z e d Jobs by Occupation Occupation Number Percent Managerial and P r o f e s s i o n a l 3 4.8 C l e r i c a l and R e l a t e d 19 30.2 S a l e s 3 4.8 S e r v i c e 7 11.1 Primary 0 0.0 P r o c e s s i n g 23 36.5 C o n s t r u c t i o n Trades 2 3.2 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1 1.6 M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g 5 7.9 ALL 64 100.0 (37%), c l e r i c a l (30%) and s e r v i c e (11%). T a b l e 15 i d e n t i f i e s these jobs by i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . Over 90% o f a l l s u b s i d i z e d jobs were i n t h r e e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s ; the s e r v i c e s e c t o r (34%), the t r a d e s (31%) and manufacturing (25%) s e c t o r . The s i x remaining j o b s were i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s . - n o -Table 15  S u b s i d i z e d Jobs by I n d u s t r y I n d u s t r y Number Percent S e r v i c e S e c t o r Trade Manufacturing C o n s t r u c t i o n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 22 20 16 5 1 34.4 31.3 25.0 7.8 1.6 and Communication ALL 64 100.0 R e c o g n i z i n g t h a t these c a t e g o r i e s are f a i r l y broad, employment c o u n s e l l o r s were not s u r p r i s e d a t the c l u s t e r i n g o f the s u b s i d i z e d j o b s e i t h e r w i t h i n o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s o r i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s , g i v e n the composition o f the E a s t H a s t i n g s l a b o u r market. Tabl e 16 i d e n t i f i e s the intended d u r a t i o n o f the wage subsidy which was s p e c i f i e d i n the o r i g i n a l I S J c o n t r a c t , as w e l l as the a c t u a l program d u r a t i o n r e c o r d e d a t t h e end of the program. F i g u r e s IV and V are histograms which p r e s e n t s these same data f o r comparison of the intended d u r a t i o n w i t h the a c t u a l program d u r a t i o n . The o r i g i n a l c o n t r a c t d u r a t i o n i s n e g o t i a t e d w i t h the employer, based upon the s k i l l requirements of the j o b , the employment disadvantage of the c l i e n t and the program budget a t the CEC. The mean intended d u r a t i o n was 26.3 weeks and the a c t u a l mean d u r a t i o n dropped t o 17.0 weeks. A one s i d e d ' t ' - i l l -Table 16 Intended & A c t u a l D u r a t i o n of I S J Intended A c t u a l Weeks Number Percent Number Percent 6 or l e s s 7 - 1 2 5 1 3 - 1 8 5 19 - 24 15 25 - 30 24 3 1 - 3 6 7 3 7 - 4 2 6 4 3 - 5 2 2 ALL 64 9 14.1 7.8 14 21.9 7.8 8 16.3 23.4 13 20.3 37.5 16 25.0 10.9 2 3.1 9.4 1 1.6 3.1 100.0 64 100.0 t e s t i d e n t i f i e d t h a t t h i s was a s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 1% l e v e l with a t - v a l u e = 5.71) i n the a c t u a l program d u r a t i o n s compared t o the i n t e n d e d l e n g t h of the program. Fourteen p e r c e n t of the c o n t r a c t s t e r m i n a t e d w i t h i n the f i r s t s i x weeks and the l o n g e s t p e r i o d o f s u b s i d i z a t i o n f o r any job t u r n e d out t o be 38 weeks whereas 8% o f the c o n t r a c t s had o r i g i n a l l y been n e g o t i a t e d t o exceed t h i s 38 week d u r a t i o n . The study d i d not i n v e s t i g a t e why the o r i g i n a l program d u r a t i o n s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y reduced; however, employment c o u n s e l l o r s c i t e d u n r e a l i s t i c e x p e c t a t i o n s on the p a r t of both p a r t i c i p a n t s and employers as one f a c t o r which might have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s h i g h drop-out r a t e e a r l y i n the program. Another p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n was an over s e n s i t i v i t y on the p a r t of p a r t i c i p a n t s t o normal work demands made by employers, which one exp e r i e n c e d employment c o u n s e l l o r r e p o r t e d i s o f t e n evident - 112 -I n t e n d e d D u r a t i o n Actual Duration 1-4 5-8 9 - 1 2 1 3 - 1 « 1 7 - 2 0 2 1 - 2 * 2 a - 2 8 2 » - 3 2 3 3 - 3 6 3 7 — 4 0 4 1 - 4 4 4 S — 4 8 4 » - 5 2 fhmber of naekm - 113 -i n l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t s . I t seems t h a t the i n i t i a l p o s i t i v e response of the c l i e n t t o having o b t a i n e d a j o b g i v e s way f a i r l y q u i c k l y t o the r e a l i t y o f how d i f f i c u l t i t i s t o make the adjustment t o a work environment and the n e c e s s a r y a d a p t a t i o n t o r o u t i n e work p a t t e r n s i n r e l a t i v e l y low p a i d o c c u p a t i o n s . Employment c o u n s e l l o r s were of the o p i n i o n t h a t t h e a b s o l u t e wage r a t e was a l e s s important c l i e n t m o t i v a t i o n f a c t o r than the r e l a t i v e wage, which compared the s u b s i d i z e d wage t o the wage r a t e i n the most r e c e n t job h e l d by the c l i e n t . The s u s p i c i o n was t h a t the g r e a t e r the p o s i t i v e wage d i f f e r e n c e , the g r e a t e r the c l i e n t ' s m o t i v a t i o n would have been t o succeed i n the s u b s i d i z e d j o b , t h e r e f o r e the more s u c c e s s f u l t h e program outcome. S i m i l a r l y , n e g a t i v e wage d i f f e r e n t i a l s would be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h l e s s s u c c e s s f u l outcomes. S u b s i d i z e d wage r a t e s were, t h e r e f o r e , compared t o wage r a t e s i n the job h e l d immediately p r i o r t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the ISJ and measured on the f i v e p o i n t s c a l e i d e n t i f i e d i n Tab l e 17. Table 17 D i f f e r e n c e between I S J Wage Rate and Wage Rate i n Job Immediately P r i o r t o I S J IS J D i f f e r e n c e Number Percent G r e a t e r than o r equal t o $2. $1 t o $1.99 g r e a t e r Less than $1 g r e a t e r V i r t u a l l y t he same Less than p r e v i o u s j o b 10 4 8 8 19 20.4 8.2 16. 3 16.3 38.8 ALL 49 100.0 - 114 -For 20% of the 49 p a r t i c i p a n t s on whom t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n was a v a i l a b l e , the s u b s i d i z e d wage r a t e was a t l e a s t $2.00 g r e a t e r than the wage r e c e i v e d immediately p r i o r t o t h e I S J . However, f o r 39% o f p a r t i c i p a n t s the s u b s i d i z e d wage r a t e was below t h a t which they had r e c e i v e d i n t h e i r most r e c e n t employment. R e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s were asked t o as s e s s the s k i l l l e v e l o f the I S J r e l a t i v e t o the most r e c e n t employment ex p e r i e n c e of the p a r t i c i p a n t . S i m i l a r t o the r e l a t i v e wage r a t e , c o u n s e l l o r s suspected t h a t the h i g h e r r e l a t i v e s k i l l l e v e l , t he g r e a t e r the m o t i v a t i o n o f t h e c l i e n t t o l e a r n on-the-job and t h e r e f o r e the more s u c c e s s f u l t h e program outcome. T a b l e 18 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t 52% o f the s u b s i d i z e d jobs were a t a h i g h e r s k i l l l e v e l than those j o b s h e l d immediately p r i o r t o the I S J . F o r s i x t e e n p e r c e n t o f the j o b s , c o u n s e l l o r s were not a b l e t o a s s e s s the s k i l l d i f f e r e n t i a l . Table 18 S k i l l L e v e l o f I S J R e l a t i v e t o Job Immediately P r i o r t o I S J L e v e l Number Percent S u b s t a n t i a l l y h i g h e r Somewhat h i g h e r No a p p r e c i a b l e d i f f e r e n c e Lower Unable t o Assess 11 22 17 4 10 17.2 34.4 26.6 6.3 15. 6 ALL 64 100.0 - 115 R e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s were a l s o asked t o a s s e s s whether c a r e e r paths would have been e v i d e n t t o the I S J p a r t i c i p a n t w h i l e they were i n the program. The s u s p i c i o n was t h a t evidence of an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c a r e e r advancement would motiv a t e the c l i e n t and produce more s u c c e s s f u l outcomes. The o p p o r t u n i t y f o r advancement was not s u f f i c i e n t by i t s e l f ; t he c l i e n t had t o be aware t h a t the o p p o r t u n i t y e x i s t e d f o r i t t o a f f e c t the p a r t i c i p a n t s ' m o t i v a t i o n and hence have an impact on outcome. Tabl e 19 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t o n l y 28% of the s u b s i d i z e d j o b s had c l e a r c a r e e r paths. The m a j o r i t y o f j o b s (55%) o f f e r e d o n l y l i m i t e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r advancement, w h i l e 14% o f the jobs o f f e r e d no o p p o r t u n i t y f o r advancement, a c c o r d i n g t o r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s . Table 19  Career Path I d e n t i f i a b l e t o  I S J P a r t i c i p a n t Path Number Percent Very C l e a r 1 1.6 C l e a r 17 2 6.6 L i m i t e d 35 54.7 No O p p o r t u n i t y 9 14.1 Unable t o Assess 2 3.1 ALL 64 100.0 One of the assumptions behind s u b s i d i z e d employment programs f o r the l o n g term unemployed i s t h a t s u p e r v i s o r s w i l l be s u p p o r t i v e of the i n d i v i d u a l and t h a t attendance, p r o d u c t i v i t y and performance standards w i l l be g r a d u a l l y imposed a f t e r the i n d i v i d u a l has s u c c e s s f u l l y made the adjustment t o a work environment. R e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s , t h e r e f o r e , were asked t o assess the commitment of immediate I S J s u p e r v i s o r s t o these u n d e r l y i n g employment o b j e c t i v e s o f the I S J program. The assumption b e i n g t e s t e d was t h a t the h i g h e r the commitment of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r , the more s u c c e s s f u l t h e t r a n s i t i o n i n t o a work environment. Ta b l e 2 0 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t 3 6% of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r s of program p a r t i c i p a n t s showed hig h t o v e r y h i g h commitment t o the employment o b j e c t i v e s of the program. However, r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s f e l t t h a t 20% of the s u p e r v i s o r s e x h i b i t e d low commitment o r i n the case of two i n d i v i d u a l s , no commitment, t o t h i s u n d e r l y i n g program concept. Table 2 0 Commitment of Immediate S u p e r v i s o r t o  Employment O b j e c t i v e s of I S J L e v e l o f Commitment Very High High Moderate Low No commitment Number 4 19 26 13 2 Percent 6, 29, 40, 20. 3 , 3 7 6 3 1 ALL 64 100. 0 F i n a l l y , the study attempted t o measure the e x t e n t o f s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n r e q u i r e d by the p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h e j o b which was s u b s i d i z e d . The s u s p i c i o n was the h i g h e r l e v e l s o f i n t e r a c t i o n would be p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h more p o s i t i v e employment outcomes. While 3 3% of the jobs r e q u i r e d v e r y f r e q u e n t s o c i a l - 117 -i n t e r a c t i o n through c o n t a c t w i t h the p u b l i c o r work c o l l e a g u e s s e v e r a l times each hour, the m a j o r i t y of j o b s (59%) r e q u i r e d t h i s l e v e l of i n t e r a c t i o n o n l y s e v e r a l times a day. Nine p e r c e n t of the s u b s i d i z e d jobs r e q u i r e d t h i s k i n d o f s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n from p a r t i c i p a n t o n l y o c c a s i o n a l l y , a few times each week. Program A d m i n i s t r a t i o n (C) The study attempted t o assess the e x t e n t of c o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n w i t h the c l i e n t p r i o r t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the program, t o determine i f t h i s i n t e r v e n t i o n p o s i t i v e l y i n f l u e n c e d program outcomes. C o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n was measured by the number o f c o u n s e l l i n g i n t e r v i e w s c l i e n t s had w i t h the c o u n s e l l o r who e v e n t u a l l y r e f e r r e d them t o the program. Tabl e 21 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t 45% of p a r t i c i p a n t s had not been i n t e r v i e w e d by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r p r i o r t o the time they were documented f o r the program. These p a r t i c i p a n t s were e i t h e r a d v i s e d of the program through other, n o n - c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s Table 21 Number of Interviews w i t h R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r P r i o r t o I S J P a r t i c i p a t i o n I n t e r v i e w s Number Percent None One Two Three Four 29 10 7 10 7 45.3 15.6 10.9 15. 6 10.9 ALL 64 100.0 118 -a t the CEC or i d e n t i f i e d d i r e c t l y by employers who knew o f the wage su b s i d y program. However, 27% of p a r t i c i p a n t s had been i n t e r v i e w e d a t l e a s t t h r e e times by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r p r i o r t o the I S J . Routine m o n i t o r i n g , through v i s i t s t o the j o b s i t e , i s r e q u i r e d on a l l I S J c o n t r a c t s . Management f e l t s t r o n g l y t h a t the p a t t e r n o f m o n i t o r i n g , both the amount and who d i d the m o n i t o r i n g , might a f f e c t program outcome. M o n i t o r i n g must be done by an employment c o u n s e l l o r ; however, t h e r e i s no requirement f o r t h e s e follow-up v i s i t s t o be made by the same c o u n s e l l o r who r e f e r r e d the c l i e n t t o the program. Table 22 summarizes the m o n i t o r i n g a c t i v i t y on the 64 c o n t r a c t s which were s t u d i e d . Three c o n t r a c t s had not been monitored a t a l l , and 27% had been monitored o n l y once. F o r t y -seven p e r c e n t of a l l c o n t r a c t s were monitored t w i c e and 22% were monitored a t l e a s t t h r e e times. F i f t y - s i x p e r c e n t o f c o n t r a c t s had a t l e a s t one m o n i t o r i n g v i s i t done by t h e same c o u n s e l l o r who had r e f e r r e d the c l i e n t t o the I S J . Table 2 2 M o n i t o r i n g V i s i t s T o t a l M o n i t o r i n g M o n i t o r i n g by R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r No. of V i s i t s Cases Percent Cases Percent None One Two Three Four 3 17 30 11 3 4.7 26.6 46.9 17.2 4.7 28 24 11 1 43 .8 37.5 17.2 1.6 ALL 64 100.0 64 100.0 - 119 -Labour Market C o n d i t i o n s (D) Two l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e s were s e l e c t e d as measures o f economic a c t i v i t y . Both v a r i a b l e s were e x t r a c t e d from the monthly Labour Market Survey of G r e a t e r Vancouver produced by Economic S e r v i c e s of Employment and Immigration Canada. The v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t e d the f a v o r a b l e n e s s o f the l a b o u r market w i t h i n the s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n a l area of the s u b s i d i z e d j o b , measured a t the time p a r t i c i p a n t s completed t h e program. The f i r s t v a r i a b l e was the d i f f i c u l t y o f j o b s e a r c h and was measured by the number of Unemployment Insurance c l a i m a n t s a v a i l a b l e f o r work per job vacancy a d v e r t i s e d through f o u r sources. These j o b sources were the Saturday e d i t i o n o f the Vancouver Sun, job o r d e r s which were r e p o r t e d u n f i l l e d through the Canada Employment Centres, v a c a n c i e s through p r i v a t e employment agencies and p r o v i n c i a l and f e d e r a l government job p o s t i n g s . Both CEC management and the CEIC economist who s p e c i a l i z e s i n the lower mainland l a b o u r market, suspected t h a t more c o m p e t i t i o n i n the l o c a l l a b o u r market might be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h poorer program outcomes. T h i s measure was a v a i l a b l e f o r 30 cases. T a b l e 23 r e c o r d s t h a t f o r 57% o f these s u b s i d i z e d Table 23 D i f f i c u l t y of Job Search Number of U l Claimants Per A d v e r t i s e d Job Vacancy Number of Cases Percent 0 - 1 0 11 - 20 21 - 30 17 5 3 5 56.7 16.7 10.0 16.7 More than 3 0 ALL 30 100.0 - 120 -j o b s , t h e r e were t e n or l e s s Unemployment Insurance c l a i m a n t s per a d v e r t i s e d job vacancy. For 27% of the j o b s t h e r e were twenty-one or more c l a i m a n t s per a d v e r t i s e d vacancy. The second l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e was a two y e a r p r o j e c t i o n by Employment and Immigration Canada economists o f the r e l a t i v e b a l ance between l a b o u r supply and i n d u s t r i a l demand f o r the s p e c i f i c I S J o c c u p a t i o n , r e p o r t e d d u r i n g the month i n which the I S J c o n t r a c t f i n i s h e d . T h i s f o r e c a s t was based on p r o v i n c i a l employment e s t i m a t e s from the Canadian O c c u p a t i o n a l P r o j e c t i o n system (COPS), a f o r e c a s t i n g model used by Employment and Immigration Canada, blended w i t h o c c u p a t i o n s p e c i f i c data and then adapted t o the l o c a l l a b o u r market. The a n t i c i p a t e d a s s o c i a t i o n was t h a t the h i g h e r the r e l a t i v e demand f o r l a b o u r i n the s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n a l area, the b e t t e r the employment outcome a t the end o f the program. The measure was a v a i l a b l e f o r o n l y 28 of t h e 64 s u b s i d i z e d j o b s . T a b l e 24 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t f o r 70% of t h e s e j o b s , a Table 24 Balance Between O c c u p a t i o n a l Supply and Demand Balance Number Percent Extreme Su r p l u s Moderate S u r p l u s L i g h t S u r p l u s R e l a t i v e Balance L i g h t Requirement Moderate Requirement Extreme Requirement 0 10 10 0 8 0 0 0.0 35.7 35.7 0.0 28.6 0.0 0.0 ALL 28 100.0 - 121 -moderate or l i g h t s u r p l u s of supply over demand -was p r o j e c t e d over the next two y e a r s , but f o r the remaining 28% of the j o b s l a b o u r demand exceeded the a v a i l a b l e supply, w i t h the balance between supply and demand i d e n t i f i e d as a l i g h t requirement. Outcomes (D) There were two measures of the program outcome, w i t h each t r e a t e d as a dependent v a r i a b l e i n the study. T a b l e 25 r e c o r d s the immediate, p o s t program employment outcome f o r p a r t i c i p a n t s . F i f t y - n i n e p e r c e n t of a l l program p a r t i c i p a n t s were employed a t the end of the I S J c o n t r a c t p e r i o d . Of t h e t o t a l p a r t i c i p a n t s , f o r t y - o n e p e r c e n t were employed wi t h the same employer w i t h t h r e e of th e s e i n d i v i d u a l s promoted from the s u b s i d i z e d j o b . S i x t e e n p e r c e n t o f the i n d i v i d u a l s had found employment w i t h another employer, w i t h h a l f of these i n j o b s r e l a t e d t o the I S J . Two p a r t i c i p a n t s became s e l f employed. Table 25 Employment Outcome Outcome Number Percent Employed w i t h same employer, promoted Employed w i t h same employer, i d e n t i c a l j o b Employed w i t h same employer, u n r e l a t e d j o b Employed w i t h d i f f e r e n t employer, r e l a t e d j o b Employed w i t h d i f f e r e n t employer, u n r e l a t e d j o b S e l f employed Unemployed, c o l l e c t i n g U l Unemployed, on S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e Unemployed, not r e c e i v i n g p u b l i c income a s s i s t a n c e Employment s t a t u s not known Moved out o f area 3 23 0 5 5 2 2 3 1 18 2 4.7 35.9 0.0 7.8 7.8 3.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 28.1 3.1 ALL 64 100.0 - 122 -Only 9% o f the p a r t i c i p a n t s were known t o have been unemployed immediately f o l l o w i n g the program, however r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s d i d not know the employment s t a t u s o f a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n (31%) of program p a r t i c i p a n t s , immediately upon completion o f the I S J . R e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s were asked whether c l i e n t s had b e n e f i t t e d i n an o v e r a l l way from p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e program, as a second measure of the program outcome. T h i s measure of outcome was a broader i n d i c a t o r o f the o v e r a l l employment b e n e f i t than the immediate employment outcome r e p o r t e d e a r l i e r . I t may have been an assessment of the i n c r e a s e i n human c a p i t a l of p a r t i c i p a n t s , as an investment which would become e v i d e n t i n lo n g e r term measures of program b e n e f i t . T a b l e 2 6 i d e n t i f i e s t h a t r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s a s s e s s e d t h a t 23% o f p a r t i c i p a n t s had b e n e f i t t e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y and t h a t o v e r a l l , 80% of i n d i v i d u a l s had b e n e f i t t e d i n some way from p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the I S J program. Table 26 C o u n s e l l o r ' s Assessment of C l i e n t B e n e f i t B e n e f i t S u b s t a n t i a l b e n e f i t D e f i n i t e l y some b e n e f i t Very l i t t l e b e n e f i t No known b e n e f i t Unable t o assess Number 15 29 7 10 3 Percent 23.4 45.3 10.9 15.6 4.7 ALL 64 100.0 - 123 -Summary and D i s c u s s i o n of U n i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s As a d e s c r i p t i v e study, the r e s e a r c h i d e n t i f i e d the l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s who had p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the program. The c l i e n t group c o n s i s t e d of s l i g h t l y more men than women. Although t h e r e was a wide age range, j u s t over h a l f o f the p a r t i c i p a n t s f e l l i n t o the prime age working c a t e g o r y o f 25 t o 44 y e a r s . Over t h r e e q u a r t e r s of p a r t i c i p a n t s were e i t h e r c u l t u r a l l y or s o c i a l l y employment disadvantaged or l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s . P a r t i c i p a n t s appeared w e l l motivated t o work and over h a l f were h i g h s c h o o l graduates. As a group, the l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y was low. Almost t h r e e q u a r t e r s of p a r t i c i p a n t s were s i n g l e w i t h no dependents and v e r y few s i n g l e p a r e n t s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e program. Although program e l i g i b i l i t y r e q u i r e d p a r t i c i p a n t s t o be unemployed 24 out o f the 3 0 weeks immediately p r i o r t o the program, i n f a c t almost t h r e e q u a r t e r of a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s had not worked a t a l l i n the y e a r p r i o r t o the program. T h i s group of p a r t i c i p a n t s t h e r e f o r e met not o n l y the s i x month c r i t e r i a which i d e n t i f i e d them as l o n g term unemployed, but a l s o the l o n g e r one year c r i t e r i a more f r e q u e n t l y r e f e r r e d t o i n the p r o f e s s i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e . Not s u r p r i s i n g t o employment c o u n s e l l o r s was the f i n d i n g t h a t t w o - t h i r d s o f the j o b s which were s u b s i d i z e d were i n c l e r i c a l and p r o c e s s i n g occupations and t h a t over 90% o f these jobs were c r e a t e d i n the s e r v i c e , t r a d e and manufacturing i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s . The a c t u a l d u r a t i o n o f c o n t r a c t s was - 124 -s i g n i f i c a n t l y s h o r t e r than o r i g i n a l l y n e g o t i a t e d , p r i m a r i l y due t o h i g h a t t r i t i o n e a r l y i n the program. G e n e r a l l y , c o n d i t i o n s i n the work environment appeared q u i t e f a v o r a b l e . Over h a l f of the c l i e n t s were s u b s i d i z e d i n j o b s w i t h a h i g h e r s k i l l l e v e l than t h e i r most r e c e n t employment, even though h a l f r e c e i v e d no i n c r e a s e i n wage r a t e s over t h e i r most r e c e n t employment. W i t h i n the job s e t t i n g , t h e r e was some evidence o f o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c a r e e r advancement i n over t h r e e q u a r t e r of the s u b s i d i z e d j o b s , and approximately o n e - t h i r d of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r s were h i g h l y committed t o the employment s k i l l s o b j e c t i v e of the program. A d m i n i s t r a t i v e l y w i t h i n the CEC, the f i n d i n g s suggested t h a t c l o s e t o h a l f of the p a r t i c i p a n t s were not c l i e n t s who had been c a r r i e d on a c o u n s e l l o r ' s c a s e l o a d , but had been i d e n t i f i e d f o r the program by employers, d i r e c t l a b o u r exchange a c t i v i t i e s i n the CEC o r had s e l f - m a r k e t e d d i r e c t l y t o employers. Although r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s were o f t e n not i n v o l v e d i n p r o j e c t m o n i t o r i n g , t w o - t h i r d s of a l l p r o j e c t s were monitored a t l e a s t t w i c e by an employment c o u n s e l l o r . The l a b o u r market showed a wide range o f c o m p e t i t i o n among job seekers i n those occupations which were s u b s i d i z e d . Over t w o - t h i r d s of the s u b s i d i z e d jobs were i n o c c u p a t i o n a l areas i n which l a b o u r supply was p r o j e c t e d t o exceed demand over a two year p e r i o d . The program impact appeared f a i r l y p o s i t i v e based on two measures of the employment outcome. Over t w o - t h i r d s o f p a r t i c i p a n t s had d e f i n i t e l y b e n e f i t t e d from the program - 125 -a c c o r d i n g t o r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s and 59% were employed beyond the p e r i o d of s u b s i d i z a t i o n , although not always w i t h the same employer. The absence of a c o n t r o l group i n the r e s e a r c h d e s ign, meant t h a t these employment g a i n s c o u l d not, however, be t o t a l l y a t t r i b u t e d t o the program. Nothing was known of the employment l e v e l s which might have been a c h i e v e d i n t h e absence of the program i n t e r v e n t i o n . B i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s The study was designed t o p r o v i d e decisionmakers a t the employment c e n t r e w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and program o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s as independent v a r i a b l e s and the dependent, outcome v a r i a b l e s . Non-parametric, b i v a r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s were s e l e c t e d , based on the l e v e l of measurement of the p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e s . These s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s i n c l u d e d the Mann-Whitney U t e s t f o r nominal l e v e l d ata w i t h two c a t e g o r i e s of measurement, the K r u s k a l - W a l l i s one-way a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e f o r nominal data w i t h more than two c a t e g o r i e s , and Spearman's rank o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t f o r v a r i a b l e s measured on an o r d i n a l s c a l e ( S i e g e l , 1956). A c o n v i n c i n g case has been put f o r t h i n the l i t e r a t u r e by B o r g a t t a and Bohrnstedt, t h a t most of the l a t e n t unobserved c o n s t r u c t s i n the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s are c o n c e p t u a l i z e d as continuous data, and t h a t the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i s such t h a t a n a l y s i s u s i n g p a r a m e t r i c s t a t i s t i c s w i l l not - 126 -s e r i o u s l y b i a s the e stimates (Borgatta & Bohrnstedt, 1981). Based on t h i s argument, p a r a m e t r i c s t a t i s t i c s might have been s e l e c t e d t o measure the c o r r e l a t i o n between v a r i a b l e s more immediately i d e n t i f i e d w i t h o r d i n a l measurement s c a l e s , when i n f a c t the more c o n s e r v a t i v e non-parametric s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s were used. Without r e j e c t i n g Borgatta's and B ohrnstedt's p o s i t i o n , the more c o n s e r v a t i v e c h o i c e was made t o ensure t h a t a s s o c i a t i o n s were not over s t a t e d , and because the d i s t r i b u t i o n on t h e t h i r t e e n p o i n t employment outcome s c a l e as w e l l as the o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t , as the two dependent v a r i a b l e s d i d not approximate normal d i s t r i b u t i o n s . C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (A) The data a n a l y s i s i d e n t i f i e d no s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s between any o f the c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as antecedent, independent v a r i a b l e s and e i t h e r of the two outcome v a r i a b l e s . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of cases over the s c a l e s used t o measure f o u r o f the seven c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n c l u d e d i n the study was poor and no doubt a f f e c t e d the data a n a l y s i s a t t h i s stage. For example, twelve months turned out t o be too s h o r t a time p e r i o d over which t o measure labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n p a t t e r n s when, i n f a c t , 73% o f p a r t i c i p a n t s had not had any work i n t h i s time frame. Chapter One i d e n t i f i e d the e x t e n t of c y c l i c a l unemployment which i s s t i l l e v i d e n t w i t h i n the B r i t i s h Columbia economy, s i n c e the 1981/82 r e c e s s i o n . S t r u c t u r a l a s p e c t s o f unemployment have compounded c y c l i c a l f a c t o r s so t h a t many of the l o n g term unemployed who p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the program - 127 -exceeded the minimum la b o u r f o r c e e l i g i b i l i t y c r i t e r i a o f b e i n g unemployed 24 out of the 30 weeks immediately p r i o r t o the program. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of cases on the s c a l e s used t o measure ed u c a t i o n and the m o t i v a t i o n of the c l i e n t t o work was a l s o poor. The reason why the e d u c a t i o n l e v e l and m o t i v a t i o n o f c l i e n t s were h i g h e r than a n t i c i p a t e d f o r a l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t group may r e l a t e t o the way i n which p a r t i c i p a n t s entered the program. F o r t y - f i v e p e r c e n t of p a r t i c i p a n t s had no i n t e r v i e w s w i t h the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r p r i o r t o the program, and were t h e r e f o r e , not i d e n t i f i e d t o c o u n s e l l i n g s t a f f as employment disadvantaged c l i e n t s p r i o r t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r the program. I t may be t h a t t h i s 45%, by v i r t u e o f the f a c t t h a t they e i t h e r came t o the CEC i n search of j o b s , through the l a b o u r exchange a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n the CEC and found out about the program, or s e l f - m a r k e t e d themselves and p o s s i b l y the program t o employers through t h e i r own job s e a r c h , were b e t t e r educated and more h i g h l y motivated t o work than o t h e r more employment disadvantaged, l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t s . F o r measurement reasons, due a t l e a s t i n p a r t t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r c l i e n t group under study, i t i s t h e r e f o r e not p o s s i b l e t o conclude from the study t h a t l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y or m o t i v a t i o n t o work are c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t e i t h e r are, or are not a s s o c i a t e d w i t h employment program outcomes. The f i n d i n g s f o r sex, age and employment disadvantage would appear t o support t h a t p o r t i o n of the r e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e which has concluded t h a t c l i e n t - 128 -c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are not f a c t o r s which p r e d i c t program suc c e s s . At the same time, these f i n d i n g s appear not t o support the c l i n i c a l i m p ressions of employment c o u n s e l l o r s t h a t c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n f l u e n c e program outcome. Op p o r t u n i t y F a c t o r s (B,C,D) The a n a l y s i s d i d , however, i d e n t i f y t h r e e program i n t e r v e n t i o n (B) v a r i a b l e s which were s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h the immediate, po s t program employment outcome. Spearman's rank o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i d e n t i f i e d a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between the a c t u a l program d u r a t i o n and the immediate employment outcome a t a 1% l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e (rho = 0.44, w i t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e of 0.40 a t the .01 l e v e l ) . T h i s p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between program d u r a t i o n and employment outcome i s not s u r p r i s i n g g i v e n the f a c t t h a t 14% of t h e c o n t r a c t s t e r m i n a t e d prematurely w i t h i n the f i r s t s i x weeks of the program. These e a r l y t e r m i n a t i o n s would v e r y o f t e n have been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h l e s s s u c c e s s f u l outcomes where the c l i e n t was unable, f o r whatever reasons, t o make the t r a n s i t i o n t o a work environment. Two program i n t e r v e n t i o n v a r i a b l e s s p e c i f i c t o the work environment were a l s o p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the immediate employment outcome. Spearman's rank o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t was a g a i n the t e s t s t a t i s t i c which i d e n t i f i e d a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n a t the 5% l e v e l between t h e employment outcome and evidence of a c a r e e r path from the immediate, s u b s i d i z e d j o b (rho = .32, wi t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e o f 0.3 0 a t - 129 -the .05% l e v e l ) . The commitment of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r t o the employment s k i l l s o b j e c t i v e of the program was a l s o p o s i t i v e l y and s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d (rho = .32, w i t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e o f 0.3 0 a t the .05% l e v e l ) w i t h the immediate employment outcome. Two of th e s e same program i n t e r v e n t i o n v a r i a b l e s a l s o showed a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the o t h e r dependent v a r i a b l e , the o v e r a l l b e n e f i t t o the c l i e n t from p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the program. Both the a c t u a l program d u r a t i o n (rho = 0.58) and t h e commitment of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r (rho = 0.50) were s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d a t t h e 1% l e v e l w i t h c r i t i c a l v a l u e s of 0.33. The ex t e n t of the o v e r a l l c o n t r a c t m o n i t o r i n g was the o n l y a d m i n i s t r a t i v e v a r i a b l e which showed a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h program outcome and t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p was e v i d e n t o n l y i n comparison w i t h the o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t as t h e second dependent v a r i a b l e (rho = .34, w i t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e of 0.33 a t the .01 l e v e l ) . I t may be t h a t where c o n t r a c t f i l e s c o n t a i n e d w r i t t e n r e p o r t s of more m o n i t o r i n g v i s i t s , the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r was b e t t e r a b l e t o i d e n t i f y any p o s i t i v e o v e r a l l program impact on the c l i e n t , even though t h i s f a c t o r was not s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the other dependent v a r i a b l e , the immediate employment outcome. An independent l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e which appeared t o have the s t r o n g e s t a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h program outcomes was t h e r e l a t i v e b alance between supply and demand f o r l a b o u r i n the s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n which was s u b s i d i z e d , one of the two l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e s . Again, Spearman's rank order c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t - 130 -was the t e s t s t a t i s t i c which i d e n t i f i e d a v e r y s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between the r e l a t i v e balance between o c c u p a t i o n a l supply and demand, and the immediate employment outcome (rho = .74, w i t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e of 0.59 a t the .01 l e v e l ) . The h i g h e r the r e l a t i v e demand, the more p o s i t i v e the immediate employment outcome appeared t o be. T h i s same independent v a r i a b l e a l s o showed a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h second dependent v a r i a b l e , t h e o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t from program p a r t i c i p a t i o n (rho = .57, w i t h a c r i t i c a l v a l u e of .51 a t the .01 l e v e l ) . The data suggested t h a t t h e r e was no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p between the o t h e r l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e , the d i f f i c u l t y of j ob search, and e i t h e r o f the two dependent outcome v a r i a b l e s . Income A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t s as a Sub-crroup The r e c e n t t a r g e t i n g of the I S J program on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s (SAR's) as a sub-group of the l o n g term unemployed, suggested t h a t a comparison of t h i s group w i t h the non-SAR p o p u l a t i o n i n the study, might p r o v i d e d e c i s i o n makers w i t h v a l u a b l e program i n f o r m a t i o n . Out of the 64 p a r t i c i p a n t s s t u d i e d , f o u r t e e n were c a t e g o r i z e d long term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s as t h e i r p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage. T a b l e s A - l t o A-25, i n c l u d e d as Appendix E summarize the data c o l l e c t e d f o r the two sub-groups, SAR (14 cases) and Non SAR (50 c a s e s ) . In g e n e r a l , t h e r e were v e r y few d i f f e r e n c e s between these two sub-groups. The means f o r each sub-group were compared f o r - 131 -those v a r i a b l e s measured on o r d i n a l and i n t e r v a l s c a l e s t o i d e n t i f y those f a c t o r s which warranted t e s t s o f a s s o c i a t i o n . Mann-whitney U t e s t s were then used t o o b t a i n t h e P-value f o r the two sub-groups on v a r i a b l e s which measured age, the r e l a t i v e wage r a t e , the r e l a t i v e s k i l l l e v e l , c a r e e r path, and the extent of f o l l o w - u p by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r . The P-value i s the p r o p o r t i o n o f the time a d i f f e r e n c e as g r e a t as o r g r e a t e r than the observed d i f f e r e n c e between the two groups would happen i f the two groups were drawn from the same p o p u l a t i o n . The f o u r t e e n SAR p a r t i c i p a n t s were i d e n t i f i a b l e as a d i s t i n c t p o p u l a t i o n on o n l y one v a r i a b l e , an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e v a r i a b l e , out of the 2 6 v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n the study. The involvement of r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s i n f o l l o w - u p m o n i t o r i n g of SAR c o n t r a c t s d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y from the non-welfare group. For example, w h i l e a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f non-SAR c o n t r a c t s (30%) had not been monitored by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r , 71% of SAR c o n t r a c t s were never monitored by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r ( r e f e r t o Table A-21). The P-value was .02, meaning t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the p a t t e r n o f f o l l o w - u p by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r would be t h i s g r e a t o r g r e a t e r o n l y 2% o f the time, i f the two groups were i n f a c t drawn from the same p o p u l a t i o n . I t was, t h e r e f o r e , concluded t h a t t h e s e two groups were two d i s t i n c t p o p u l a t i o n s i n terms of the e x t e n t o f c l i e n t f ollow-up by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r . There was an i n d i c a t i o n of a p o s s i b l e d i f f e r e n c e between the two sub-groups i n terms of the s k i l l l e v e l of the s u b s i d i z e d job r e l a t i v e t o the most r e c e n t j o b h e l d by the p a r t i c i p a n t . For - 132 -example, a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n (71%) of SAR's were s u b s i d i z e d i n jobs a t s k i l l l e v e l s which were r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r than t h e i r most r e c e n t j o b , p r i o r t o the program. Fo r t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , o n l y 52% of the s u b s i d i z e d jobs i n v o l v e d a r e l a t i v e i n c r e a s e i n t h i s s k i l l d i f f e r e n t i a l ( r e f e r t o T a b l e A-15). The o t h e r t h r e e v a r i a b l e s which were t e s t e d p r o v i d e d no evidence of s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between the SAR and Non-SAR p a r t i c i p a n t groups. Although the d i f f e r e n c e s between the two sub-groups measured on these t h r e e and the remaining v a r i a b l e s were s l i g h t , they a r e i n c l u d e d f o r t h e i r d e s c r i p t i v e v a l u e . There were o n l y minor d i f f e r e n c e s i n c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Whereas 54% of the non s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e group (non-SAR) were male, 71% o f the s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t (SAR) sub-group were male. SAR's were s l i g h t l y younger w i t h a mean age of 27.2 years compared t o 29.9 years f o r the non-SAR p o p u l a t i o n group. The sta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n of age f o r the SAR's was a l s o s m a l l e r than f o r the non-SAR group. E d u c a t i o n a l l y , SAR's had on average s l i g h t l y more y e a r s of education, 11.5 compared t o 11.1 years f o r non-SAR's. The standard d e v i a t i o n from the mean f o r age, was s l i g h t l y s m a l l e r f o r the SAR group. The d i f f e r e n c e s i n labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n p a t t e r n s f o r the two groups were s l i g h t and not unexpected ( r e f e r t o Table A-4 t o A-7). SAR's were unemployed f o r a s l i g h t l y g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f the year immediately p r i o r t o the I S J , than the non-SAR p o p u l a t i o n group. On average, they had been unemployed 11.8 months out of the p r e v i o u s year, compared t o the non-welfare group who had been unemployed 11.4 months. They had - 133 -on average worked l e s s , attended fewer months o f s c h o o l and had been i n v o l v e d i n fewer u n s p e c i f i e d a c t i v i t i e s which had a f f e c t e d t h e i r l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e SAR sub-group d i d not d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y from the non-welfare group, although a s l i g h t l y h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of the former group were s i n g l e w i t h dependents ( r e f e r t o Table A-8). S i m i l a r l y , the m o t i v a t i o n of SAR program p a r t i c i p a n t s was assessed v e r y s i m i l a r t o the non-welfare group ( r e f e r t o Table A-9). The o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r d i s t r i b u t i o n o f SAR jobs d i f f e r e d o n l y s l i g h t l y from t h e j o b s occupied by the non-SAR sub-group ( r e f e r t o t a b l e s A-10 and A - l l ) . While 14% o f non-SAR jobs were i n s e r v i c e o c c u p a t i o n s , t h e r e were no SAR's s u b s i d i z e d i n these o c c u p a t i o n s . A h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f I S J c o n t r a c t s f o r SAR's were w i t h i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y (28%) than f o r a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s (7.8%). While the intended p e r i o d of s u b s i d i z a t i o n o f j o b s occupied by SAR's was v e r y s i m i l a r t o the non-welfare sub-group ( r e f e r t o Tab l e s A-12 and A-13), the a c t u a l average d u r a t i o n of SAR c o n t r a c t s was s l i g h t l y l o n g e r than f o r the non-welfare p a r t i c i p a n t s . T h i s was p r i m a r i l y due t o a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of Non-SAR c o n t r a c t s (42%) which l a s t e d twelve weeks or l e s s , i n comparison t o SAR j o b s which f e l l i n t o t h i s r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t s u b s i d i z a t i o n p e r i o d (21%). There was v e r y l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e between the two p o p u l a t i o n groups measured a g a i n s t the other j o b r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s ( r e f e r t o T a b les A-14, A-16 t o A-18). - 134 -A d m i n i s t r a t i v e l y , the p a t t e r n of t o t a l m o n i t o r i n g of SAR c o n t r a c t s d i f f e r e d o n l y s l i g h t l y from a l l c o n t r a c t s (Refer t o T a b l e A-2 0). While a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f SAR c o n t r a c t s were monitored twi c e , r e l a t i v e l y fewer SAR c o n t r a c t s were monitored t h r e e or more times. There were o n l y f o u r SAR cases f o r which l a b o u r market v a r i a b l e s c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d ; t h e r e f o r e , no comparison of the two sub-groups was made f o r these v a r i a b l e s . The program outcomes f o r the SAR group were v e r y s i m i l a r t o the Non-SAR p a r t i c i p a n t s ( r e f e r t o Tables A-24 and A-25). S i x t y p e r c e n t of the non-welfare group were employed immediately upon completion of the program, and 57% of the f o u r t e e n SAR's were employed. A s i m i l a r l y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of each group were known t o be unemployed a t the end of the s u b s i d i z a t i o n p e r i o d and the employment s t a t u s of p a r t i c i p a n t s was not known f o r over 25% of each group. Outcomes on the second dependent v a r i a b l e were not q u i t e as c l o s e as f o r the immediate employment outcome, however the d i f f e r e n c e s were not s i g n i f i c a n t . A s l i g h t l y h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of the SAR sub-group (79%) had, i n the o p i n i o n o f r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r s , d e r i v e d a t l e a s t some b e n e f i t from the program compared t o non-welfare program p a r t i c i p a n t s (66%). Summary and D i s c u s s i o n of B i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s The r e s e a r c h assumption was t h a t c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and employment o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s a f f e c t the i n t e g r a t i o n o f l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s i n t o the l a b o u r market through the I S J program, a job c r e a t i o n program a d m i n i s t e r e d as a t a r g e t e d , - 135 -m a r g i n a l employment subsidy. The f i n d i n g s of t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t appear t o support o n l y p a r t of t h i s h y p o t h e s i s . While c l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (A) were of d e s c r i p t i v e v a l u e , these v a r i a b l e s d i d not emerge from the study as f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e program outcome. C l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as measures o f the c a p a c i t y which c l i e n t s brought t o the program as i n p u t , d i d not, i n G l a s e r ' s terms, earn t h e i r way i n t o the t h e o r y ( G l a s s e r , 1978). Poor d i s t r i b u t i o n of cases over the s c a l e s used t o measure s e v e r a l of these v a r i a b l e s , noted under d i s c u s s i o n of the u n i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s , may i n p a r t account f o r t h i s f i n d i n g . Sex, age, and the p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage of the c l i e n t were, n e v e r t h e l e s s , found t o be poor p r e d i c t o r s o f program success. These f i n d i n g s appear t o support t h a t p o r t i o n of the employment program r e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e t h a t i d e n t i f i e s these p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as f a c t o r s t h a t do not i n f l u e n c e program outcome. For the few v a r i a b l e s on which i t was v a l i d t o make thes e comparisons, the f i n d i n g s a l s o f a i l e d t o c o n f i r m the c l i n i c a l i m p r e s s i o n s o f employment c o u n s e l l o r s . The r e s e a r c h evidence does, however, support th e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the s p e c i f i c j o b s which are s u b s i d i z e d , do a f f e c t the s u c c e s s f u l i n t e g r a t i o n o f l o n g term unemployed c l i e n t s i n t o the l a b o u r market. The study i d e n t i f i e d v a r i a b l e s under each of the t h r e e o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s (B,C,D) i n c l u d e d i n the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , which appear t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h program outcome. - 136 -Labour market c o n d i t i o n s , measured by the b a l a n c e between the supply and demand f o r la b o u r i n the l o c a l l a b o u r market, appeared t o be the most i n f l u e n t i a l o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r i n p r e d i c t i n g the employment outcome f o r program p a r t i c i p a n t s . The f i n d i n g s a l s o appear t o c o n f i r m the c l i n i c a l i m p ressions o f employment c o u n s e l l o r s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a t the employment c e n t r e , t h a t program i n t e r v e n t i o n f a c t o r s can i n f l u e n c e the s u c c e s s f u l r e - a d a p t a t i o n of the l o n g term unemployed i n t o the l a b o u r f o r c e through t h i s t a r g e t e d job c r e a t i o n program. W i t h i n the j o b s i t e , the p e r c e i v e d o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c a r e e r advancement as w e l l as the support of an empathetic s u p e r v i s o r , w h i l e the i n d i v i d u a l adapts t o the work environment, appear t o each p o s i t i v e l y i n f l u e n c e the employment outcome. Although the e x t e n t of c l i e n t f ollow-up through m o n i t o r i n g v i s i t s t o the work s i t e d i d not appear t o i n f l u e n c e t h e immediate employment outcome, i t d i d emerge as a core v a r i a b l e s u g g e s t i n g t h a t CEC a d m i n i s t r a t i o n can i n f l u e n c e o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t from the program. I t i s not c l e a r from the study whether t h i s m o n i t o r i n g has a d i r e c t impact on t h i s measure of the program outcome or whether m o n i t o r i n g might i n c r e a s e the commitment of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r toward the program g o a l s and t h e r e f o r e i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e the o v e r a l l program b e n e f i t t o the c l i e n t . T h i s o v e r a l l b e n e f i t as an investment i n human c a p i t a l may o n l y become e v i d e n t i n terms o f employment outcome through l o n g e r term c l i e n t follow-up. Given t h e n o n - p r o b a b i l i t y sampling d e s i g n , the i m p l i c a t i o n s of these f i n d i n g s are t h e o r e t i c a l l y l i m i t e d t o f u t u r e I S J - 137 -program p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r geographic a r e a o f Vancouver. The u n c o n t r o l l e d nature of the r e s e a r c h experiment a l s o l i m i t s the p r o p o r t i o n of the employment g a i n s which can be a s c r i b e d t o the program i n t e r v e n t i o n i t s e l f . As an e x p l o r a t o r y study, however, the f i n d i n g s suggest t o program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s t h a t s e n s i t i v i t y t o l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s and c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s i n the work s i t e may i n f l u e n c e t h e success of t a r g e t e d j o b c r e a t i o n programs. The study p r o v i d e s l i t t l e evidence t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h e d the f o u r t e e n s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s as a s m a l l sub-group from those who were not i d e n t i f i e d as long term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s , e i t h e r as i n d i v i d u a l c l i e n t s or from a program ex p e r i e n c e p o i n t of view. The reason f o r t h i s may r e l a t e t o the c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of t h i s v a r i a b l e and i t s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n by employment c o u n s e l l o r s . Although o n l y f o u r t e e n p a r t i c i p a n t s were i d e n t i f i e d as l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s , i n f a c t many more p a r t i c i p a n t s were i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s . One employment c o u n s e l l o r ' s estimate ranged as h i g h as n i n e t y p e r c e n t . D i s c u s s i o n a f t e r the study r e v e a l e d t h a t t h i s c l i e n t code was used most f r e q u e n t l y t o i d e n t i f y c l i e n t s w i t h no o t h e r obvious employment disadvantage. For example, a l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t who a l s o had a c u l t u r a l b a r r i e r t o employment would have been i d e n t i f i e d w i t h the l a t t e r c u l t u r a l b a r r i e r as the p r i n c i p a l employment disadvantage. Programs under the Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y , i n t r o d u c e d i n the f a l l o f 1985, were the f i r s t employment i n i t i a t i v e s which - 138 -i d e n t i f i e d w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s as a d i s t i n c t group o f employment disadvantaged program p a r t i c i p a n t s . The E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC w i t h i t s p r o a c t i v e c l i e n t o r i e n t a t i o n p r o b a b l y used t h i s c a t e g o r y more l i b e r a l l y than o t h e r CEC's. However, c o u n s e l l o r s continued t o use i t as a r a t i o n a l e f o r the employment disadvantage o f the c l i e n t and hence program e l i g i b i l i t y , o n l y i f a more t r a d i t i o n a l employment disadvantage c o u l d not be i d e n t i f i e d . T h i s means t h a t the f o u r t e e n s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s c o u l d v e r y w e l l not have been an e x c l u s i v e SAR sub-group, w i t h o t h e r SAR's blended i n w i t h t h e o t h e r employment disadvantaged groups. T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n may account f o r the r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f p a r t i c i p a n t s , 73% of whom were s i n g l e w i t h no dependents. The r e l a t i v e l y low wage r a t e s s u b s i d i z e d under the ISJ , i n the $4.00 t o $5.00 range, may p r o v i d e inadequate f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r those w i t h dependents and who are r e c e i v i n g h i g h e r l e v e l s of income a s s i s t a n c e due t o f a m i l y s i z e , t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n the program. T h i s p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the l o n g term w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t c l i e n t c a t e g o r y may a l s o account f o r the d i s t i n c t i o n between the f o u r t e e n i n d i v i d u a l s and the remaining f i f t y p a r t i c i p a n t s , on the v a r i a b l e which measured th e e x t e n t of f o l l o w - u p by the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r , c i t e d e a r l i e r . P a r t i c i p a n t s who were d i s t i n g u i s h e d under the more t r a d i t i o n a l employment disadvantages (Non-SAR's), were more l i k e l y t o have been on e s t a b l i s h e d c o u n s e l l i n g caseloads and the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r was t h e r e f o r e more l i k e l y t o have been i n v o l v e d i n c l i e n t f o l l o w - u p through c o n t r a c t m o n i t o r i n g . T h i s s p e c u l a t i o n - 139 -on the p a r t o f employment c o u n s e l l o r s c o u l d not be confirmed w i t h i n the study, as the v a r i a b l e which measured c o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n d i d not support the p o s i t i o n t h a t SAR's had s i g n i f i c a n t l y fewer i n t e r v i e w s w i t h c o u n s e l l o r s p r i o r t o program p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Meanwhile, d e c i s i o n makers at the employment c e n t r e w i l l , a t t h i s stage, have t o continue t o r e l y on the o v e r a l l I S J program experience as a guide t o t h e i r t a r g e t i n g o f t h e program on s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . Future s t u d i e s on I S J p a r t i c i p a n t s may e v e n t u a l l y i d e n t i f y SAR's as a d i s t i n c t p o p u l a t i o n group over the range of c l i e n t and o p p o r t u n i t y v a r i a b l e s measured i n t h i s study, as the 1986 f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l agreement focuses i n c r e a s e d a t t e n t i o n and program r e s o u r c e s on w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s as a l a r g e group of p o t e n t i a l program p a r t i c i p a n t s . I t s hould be remembered, however, t h a t employment c o u n s e l l o r s r e c o g n i z e , and i t was noted e a r l i e r i n t h i s study, t h a t the I S J program i s not an a p p r o p r i a t e employment i n i t i a t i v e f o r a l l s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s . I t s r e l a t i v e l y u n s t r u c t u r e d t r a i n i n g environment, on-the-job w i t h o u t peer group support, may mean t h a t f u t u r e harder core SAR p a r t i c i p a n t s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be screened out of t h i s p a r t i c u l a r employment i n i t i a t i v e . One can s p e c u l a t e t h a t c l i e n t m o t i v a t i o n and e d u c a t i o n l e v e l s may e v e n t u a l l y drop f o r SAR's compared t o o v e r a l l program p a r t i c i p a n t s , as marketing by the CEC and the M i n i s t r y o f S o c i a l S e r v i c e s and Housing exposes a l a r g e r SAR p o p u l a t i o n t o the program or i f s a n c t i o n s are a p p l i e d t o - 140 -r e l u c t a n t program p a r t i c i p a n t s . I f the M i n i s t r y were t o t a r g e t the program on s i n g l e w e l f a r e mothers c o n s i s t e n t w i t h programming t r e n d s i n the 1980's elsewhere i n Canada, one would expect the l e v e l o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f p a r t i c i p a n t s t o r i s e s u b s t a n t i a l l y . However, the nature of t h e I S J program i t s e l f , may mean t h a t SAR p a r t i c i p a n t s w i l l never d i s t i n g u i s h themselves as a sub-group, comparable t o those p o p u l a t i o n groups who have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the wide range of s u p p l y - s i d e employment programs t a r g e t e d on w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s , which were i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter Four. - 141 -CHAPTER VII IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS I m p l i c a t i o n s of the F i n d i n g s Members o f the employment team a t the E a s t H a s t i n g s CEC are the immediate consumers of t h i s r e s e a r c h . The o p e r a t i o n s r e s e a r c h o r i e n t a t i o n of the study and the u t i l i z a t i o n - f o c u s e d r e s e a r c h model i m p l i c i t i n the r e s e a r c h p r o c e s s from s t a r t t o f i n i s h , suggest t h a t the f i n d i n g s should have some impact on program a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . R e a l i s t i c a l l y , what c o u l d t h i s impact be? The r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s do not o f f e r program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s an e m p i r i c a l b a s i s upon which t o screen c l i e n t s f o r r e f e r r a l t o the program. C l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as measured i n t h e study were poor p r e d i c t o r s of the immediate, pos t program employment outcomes as w e l l as poor p r e d i c t o r s o f broader o v e r a l l c l i e n t b e n e f i t from the program. In another program s e t t i n g w i t h a more d i v e r s e c l i e n t group and d i f f e r e n t o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s of these v a r i a b l e s , the r e s u l t s may be d i f f e r e n t . The f i n d i n g s do suggest t h a t g r e a t e r program b e n e f i t s may accrue t o p a r t i c i p a n t s who are s u b s i d i z e d i n j o b s i n o c c u p a t i o n a l areas w i t h r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r o c c u p a t i o n a l demand. Although the r e s e a r c h r e a l i s t i c a l l y o f f e r s o n l y c a u t i o n a r y evidence o f t h i s a s s o c i a t i o n , f u t u r e marketing o f the I S J by the CEC, c o u l d r e a s o n a b l y be t a r g e t t e d on h i g h e r growth i n d u s t r i e s , - 142 -i n o c c u p a t i o n a l areas w i t h more f a v o u r a b l e p r o j e c t i o n s o f l a b o u r market demand r e l a t i v e t o the a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y of l a b o u r . E a r l i e r knowledge of program budgets would f a c i l i t a t e t h i s s t r a t e g i c marketing and more e x t e n s i v e l o c a l l a b o u r market i n f o r m a t i o n would of course, f a c i l i t a t e t h i s p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . The f i n d i n g s a l s o suggest t h a t program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s should be s e n s i t i v e t o those f a c t o r s w i t h i n the work environment t h a t may i n f l u e n c e program outcome. The c l i e n t ' s awareness of the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c a r e e r advancement on-the-job and t h e support of the immediate s u p e r v i s o r w h i l e the l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l i s r e - a d j u s t i n g t o the work environment appear t o each have an impact on program outcome. Program sponsors should be a d v i s e d o f t h e p o t e n t i a l l y p o s i t i v e impact o f t h e s e f a c t o r s on the s u c c e s s f u l a d a p t a t i o n of l o n g term unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s i n t o the work f o r c e . I n i t i a l c o n t r a c t n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h employers might i n c l u d e d i s c u s s i o n of advancement o p p o r t u n i t i e s and the importance o f i d e n t i f y i n g any such c a r e e r p a t h t o the program p a r t i c i p a n t . The study suggests t h a t program a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a t the CEC should take the time t o meet w i t h immediate I S J s u p e r v i s o r s w i t h i n the job s e t t i n g when c o n t r a c t s are n e g o t i a t e d , t o e x p l a i n the u n d e r l y i n g employment o b j e c t i v e s of the t a r g e t e d job c r e a t i o n program. These u n d e r l y i n g program o b j e c t i v e s c o u l d then be r e i n f o r c e d d u r i n g r o u t i n e c o n t r a c t m o n i t o r i n g f o r a p o t e n t i a l l y p o s i t i v e impact on program outcomes, as suggested i n the f i n d i n g s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h . A r e a l i s t i c a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r s p e c t i v e , however, a l s o r e c o g n i z e s as P a t t o n has, t h a t e v a l u a t i o n r e s e a r c h i s j u s t one - 143 -i n p u t i n t o the complex system of programmatic and o r g a n i z a t o n a l f u n c t i o n i n g (Patton, 1978). I t i s t h i s r e a l i t y which c o n f r o n t s program managers a t the employment c e n t r e as consumers of r e s e a r c h . In s p i t e o f t h i s r e a l t y , the t e s t o f t h e success of the c o l l a b o r a t i v e r e s e a r c h process u n d e r l y i n g t h i s p r o j e c t must be measured by the immediate, concr e t e and o b s e r v a b l e e f f e c t on s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n s and program a c t i v i t i e s r e s u l t i n g d i r e c t l y from the r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s (Patton, 1978, p. 24) . The study has not examined and t h e r e f o r e cannot judge, the c o u n t e r - c y c l i c a l employment impact of the I S J program, as a job c r e a t i o n program. The f i n d i n g s do, however, suggest i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the program as a s u p p l y - s i d e employment i n i t i a t i v e designed t o respond t o i s s u e s o f s t r u c t u r a l unemployment. R e s u l t s suggest t h a t program implementation a t the CEC l e v e l which i s s e n s i t i v e t o l o c a l l a b o u r market c o n d i t i o n s and f a c t o r s w i t h i n the work s i t e , may be a b l e t o improve immediate employment outcomes f o r employment disadvantaged c l i e n t groups. S e n s i t i v i t y t o t h e s e f a c t o r s may e s s e n t i a l l y t r a n s l a t e the immediate impact o f t a r g e t t e d j o b c r e a t i o n programs on both c y c l i c a l and s t r u c t u r a l unemployment, i n t o employment impacts beyond the p e r i o d o f wage s u b s i d i z a t i o n . Any attempt t o measure the exact program impact would r e q u i r e a r e s e a r c h d e s i g n t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e s a c o n t r o l group and should i n c l u d e l o n g i t u d i n a l c l i e n t f o l low-up. L o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d i e s might complement the f i n d i n g s o f t h i s study and suggest f a c t o r s t h a t s u s t a i n the c o u n t e r - c y c l i c a l employment impact of these employment i n i t i a t i v e s beyond the immediate program - 144 -outcome, and ensure t h a t the complementary s t r u c t u r a l employment o b j e c t i v e s of t a r g e t t e d job c r e a t i o n programs have maximum lon g e r term impact on the employment disadvantaged t a r g e t groups. Even though the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i n d i n g s are c o n f i n e d t o one CEC area, the study suggests t h a t r a i s i n g c e r t a i n program o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s w i t h program sponsors and immediate s u p e r v i s o r s may v e r y w e l l improve the r e t u r n on p u b l i c e x p e n d i t u r e s t a r g e t e d on the l o n g term unemployed through job c r e a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s . Future Research The r e c e n t emphasis on work f o r w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s , e v i d e n t i n workfare programs i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , employment i n i t i a t i v e s f o r mothers on w e l f a r e i n A l b e r t a and O n t a r i o and the 1986 f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l agreement i n B r i t i s h Columbia, suggest t h a t t h e r e should be renewed i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the r e l a t i o n s h i p between work and w e l f a r e . Is i t an unholy a l l i a n c e (Macarov, 1980) o r do work and w e l f a r e go t o g e t h e r ( L e v i t a n , R ein & Marwick, 1972)? S o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s , who have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the I S J and whose p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l l i k e l y i n c r e a s e as a consequence of the f e d e r a l / p r o v i n c i a l agreement, are a n a t u r a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . The simultaneous d i v e r s i o n of funds under the f e d e r a l I S J program and the comparable, y e t d i s t i n c t , p r o v i n c i a l Job T r ac Program p r o v i d e s a r i c h source of - 145 -program data f o r f u t u r e study. The i n c r e a s e d t a r g e t t i n g o f these programs has transformed job c r e a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s i n t o powerful instruments of s o c i a l p o l i c y . The r e s u l t s of t h i s study suggest t h a t a resurgence of r e s e a r c h on the impact of employment programs on the long term unemployed and renewed debate over f a c t o r s t h a t p r e d i c t success, are warranted. The l a b o u r economics p e r s p e c t i v e i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter Two of t h i s study and the f i n d i n g s of t h i s r e s e a r c h suggest t h a t f u t u r e r e s e a r c h s h o u l d e x p l o r e a wider range of economic f a c t o r s f o r t h e i r p o t e n t i a l impact on the outcomes o f p u b l i c employment programs. As w e l l as the r e l a t i v e supply and demand f o r labour, f a c t o r s i n the product markets c o u l d be i n c l u d e d as economic f a c t o r s p o t e n t i a l l y i n f l u e n c i n g the employment outcome of j o b c r e a t i o n programs. Such r e s e a r c h may v e r i f y the f i n d i n g s of t h i s study and l e a d t o enhanced t h e o r i e s of f a c t o r s t h a t p r e d i c t success, u l t i m a t e l y improving the r e t u r n on s c a r c e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l funds a l l o c a t e d t o job c r e a t i o n programs. From a d e s i g n p e r s p e c t i v e , f u t u r e r e s e a r c h c o u l d focus on l a r g e r p o p u l a t i o n s o f program p a r t i c i p a n t s and use p r o b a b i l i t y sampling designs f o r wider a p p l i c a t i o n of any r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s . Although the d i f f i c u l t y of s e l e c t i n g c o n t r o l groups i n such experimental d e s i g n s i s w e l l documented (Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s , 1982), f u t u r e r e s e a r c h should attempt t o i s o l a t e program b e n e f i t s which would have o c c u r r e d i n the absence o f any such program i n t e r v e n t i o n , through the use of v a l i d comparison groups. - 146 -T h i s r e s e a r c h has demonstrated the v a l u e o f enhancing e x i s t i n g c l i e n t , program and l a b o u r market d a t a sources w i t h o r i g i n a l d a t a . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e f a c t o r s i n both the agency and work environments would not n e c e s s a r i l y have emerged as core v a r i a b l e s i f the study had not supplemented e x i s t i n g data w i t h a q u e s t i o n a i r e . Future s t u d i e s may wish t o s i m i l a r l y enhance e x i s t i n g data sources u n l e s s r o u t i n e c o n t r a c t documentation i s m o d i f i e d t o i n c l u d e i n f o r m a t i o n on a range o f o p p o r t u n i t y f a c t o r s which t h i s study has demonstrated, may i n f l u e n c e program outcomes. At the same time, f u t u r e s t u d i e s s h o u l d c o n t i n u e t o e x p l o r e the use of e x t e n s i v e , e x i s t i n g data sources as t h i s study has done. From a p u b l i c p o l i c y p e r s p e c t i v e , i t i s c l e a r from t h i s study t h a t improved follow-up on p a r t i c i p a n t s immediately upon completion o f the program, as w e l l as l o n g i t u d i n a l f o l l o w - u p , would enhance any such r e s e a r c h e f f o r t . - 147 -REFERENCES Akabas, S., & Kursman, P. (1982). Work, Workers and O r g a n i z a t i o n s : A View from S o c i a l Work, Englewood C l i f f s : P r e n t i c e - H a l l Inc. Ashby, P. (1985) . The F o r g o t t e n M i l l i o n Unemployed. S o c i a l  P o l i c y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , V o l 19, No. 3, 191-198. A t k i n s , C. M. (1986). 20.000 Choose Paycheque over Welfare Check, P u b l i c Welfare, V o l 44.No. 1, pp. 20-22. Bacon, R.C. (1986). A Model f o r A l l C a l i f o r n i a , P u b l i c  Welfare. V o l 44 No. 1, PP. 28-29. Bishop, J . , F r a n l a s , G., Keely, M.C., Monson, C.E., & Robins, P.K. (1980). A Research Design t o Study the Labour Market E f f e c t s of the Employment O p p o r t u n i t y P i l o t P r o j e c t s , E v a l u a t i o n S t u d i e s Review Annual V o l 5, B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s . B o r g a t t a , E.F, & Bohrnstedt, G.W. (1981). L e v e l of Measurement: Once Over Again, S o c i a l Measurement: Current  I s s u e s , B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s L t d . Borgen, W. and Amundson, N. (1984). The E x p e r i e n c e o f  Unemployment: I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r C o u n s e l l i n g the  Unemployed, Scarborough: Nelson Canada. Bo r r e r o , M. (1980). " P s y c h o l o g i c a l and Emotional Impact of Unemployment", J o u r n a l of S o c i o l o g y and S o c i a l Welfare. V o l V I I , No. 6, pp. 916-934. Borr e r o , M. (1981). The P r i c e of Unemployment and I n f l a t i o n : Who Pays, J o u r n a l of S o c i o l o g y and S o c i a l W e l f a r e . V o l V I I I , No. 1, pp.122-132. B r i a r , K. (1980) . H e l p i n g the Unemployed C l i e n t , J o u r n a l of S o c i o l o g y and S o c i a l Welfare, V o l V I I , No. 6, PP. 895-906. C a r t w r i g h t , T. (1973). Problems, S o l u t i o n s and S t r a t e g i e s : A C o n t r i b u t i o n t o the theory and P r a c t i c e o f P l a n n i n g " , J o u r n a l of the American I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s . V o l . 39, No. 3. Clague, M., D i l l , R., Seebaran, R., & Wharf, B. (1984). Reforming the Human S e r v i c e s , Vancouver: U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Press. C o f f i n , Donald A. (1983). O b j e c t i v e s , Inputs, and Outputs: A P l a n n i n g Model f o r CETA T r a i n i n g Programs, E v a l u a t i o n  Review, V o l 7, No. 6, pp. 777-791. - 148 -Courchene, T . J . (1987) . S o c i a l P o l i c y i n the 1990's, Policy-Study No. 3, C D . Howe I n s t i t u t e , Scarborough: P r e n t i c e -H a l l Canada Inc. Crane, J . , C o l l i n g , S.E.C. & Bezonsky, Rhona E. (1983). Research U t i l i z a t i o n i n S o c i a l Work, P u b l i c a t i o n S e r i e s , Toronto: U n i v e r s g i t y o f Toronto. Crane, J . (1986a). The Well Tempered Research P r o p o s a l : A Guide, L e c t u r e O u t l i n e , School of S o c i a l Work, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. Crane, J . (1986b). E t h i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n Research, L e c t u r e O u t l i n e , s c h o o l o f S o c i a l Work, U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. Crane, J . (1986c). The P r i n c i p a l Modes o f O b s e r v a t i o n U s e f u l  i n E xperimental Innovation i n S o c i a l Work, L e c t u r e notes, School o f s o c i a l Work, U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. Deakin, B. M. & P r a t t e n , C.F. (1982). E f f e c t s o f the Temporary  Employment Subsidy, Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada. (1984). S t e e r i n g the Course, Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. Emery, R. (1986). Recession and Recovery - B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada, Labour Market B u l l e t i n , Employment and Immigration Canada, Economic S e r v i c e s , B.C/Yukon Region, A p r i l . Employment and Immigration Canada. (1981) Labour Market Development i n the 1980,s, Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. Employment and Immigration Canada. (October 1985 t o November 1986). Labour Market Survey f o r G r e a t e r Vancouver, compiled by Labour Market S e r v i c e s , B.C./ Yukon Region. Employment and Immigration Canada. (1985). Job Development  O p e r a t i o n a l Procedures, P a r t I, September 29, 1985. Employment and Immigration Canada. (1985a). Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y : Working O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r People, June 1985, WH-3-49. Employment and Immigration Canada. (1986) . Memorandum from N. Bennett, September, 19, 1986. Employment and Immigration Canada. (1986) Economic Review, B r i t i s h Columbia/ Yukon Region, Issues 154, 157. - 149 -E t h i c s Committee G u i d e l i n e s . (1986). U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s . (1982). Employment I n i t i a t i v e s : A Review  and E v a l u a t i o n , Toronto: Jonhar A s s o c i a t e s . F r a s e r , N. & S i n f i e l d , A. (1985) The Cost o f High Unemployment, S o c i a l P o l i c y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . V o l 19, Number 2, Summer 1985. G a r v i n , CD., Smith, A.D., Reid, W.J. (1978). The Work I n c e n t i v e E x p erience, M o n t c l a i r : A l l a n h e l d , Osmun and Co. P u b l i s h e r s , Inc. G l a s e r , Barney G. (1978) T h e o r e t i c a l S e n s i t i v i t y , San F r a n c i s c o : U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a . Goodwin, L. (1981). Can Workfare Work?, P u b l i c Welfare, V o l . 39, No. 4. Gueron, J.M. (1986). Work f o r People on Welfare. P u b l i c  Welfare. V o l 44, No. 1, pp.7-12. Guest, D. (1980) The Emergence of S o c i a l S e c u r i t y i n Canada, Vancouver: U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia P r e s s . Gunderson, Morley. (1983b). Economics of P o v e r t y and Income  D i s t r i b u t i o n , Toronto: Butterworths. H a l l e t t , G. (1985). Unemployment: Lessons from West Germany, S o c i a l P o l i c y & A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , V o l 19, No. 3, pp. 180-190. Handler, J.F. (1972). Reforming the Poor, New York: B a s i c Books Inc. Handy, C. (1984). The Future of Work. Worchester: B i l l i n g s and Sons L t d . Harper, M.J. & H u r s t S. (1982). Income A s s i s t a n c e P o l i c y i n  B r i t i s h Columbia as R e l a t e d t o E m p l o y a b i l i t y o f  A p p l i c a n t s , Unpublished student paper, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. Haveman, R.H. and Palmer, J.L. (1980) Jobs f o r Disadvantaged  Workers: The Economics of Employment S u b s i d i e s , Washington: The Brookings I n s t i t u t e . Hayles, C. (1986). Marketing the Canadian Jobs S t r a t e g y , Employment and Immigration Canada, Unpublished Paper, Ottawa. Hegan, M. (1986). Work Instead of Welfare, P e r c e p t i o n , V o l . 10, No. 1. - 150 -Hemming, R. (1984) Poverty and I n c e n t i v e s ; The Economics of  S o c i a l S e c u r i t y , New York: Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . H o l l a n d , G. (1985). Long Term Unemployment: New I n i t i a t i v e s , S o c i a l P o l i c y & A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , V o l . 19, No. 3, 175-179. Hourihan, T. J . (1986). A Business E x e c u t i v e Looks a t ET, P u b l i c Welfare. V o l . 44, No.l, pp. 22-23. Hudgins, D.C. (1986). Study L i n k s T r a i n i n g and Reduced Dependence, P u b l i c Welfare, V o l . 44, No. 1, pp.18-19. Johnson, L.A. (1969). Employing the Hard-core Unemployed, American Management A s s o c i a t i o n . Jonhar and A s s o c i a t e s . (1982). Employment I n i t i a t i v e s : A  Review and E v a l u a t i o n , Toronto: Jonhar and A s s o c i a t e s . Klausner, S.Z. (1978). S i x Years i n the L i v e s o f the  Impoverished: An Examination of the WIN T h e s i s . P h i l a d e l p h i a : Centre f o r Research on the A c t s o f Man. Lawther, W.C., Gromelski, R.A. (1984). An E v a l u a t i o n Model f o r Manpower T r a i n i n g Program Managers, E v a l u a t i o n Review, V o l . 8, No. 6. Leaper, R.A.B. (1985). Long Term Unemployment, S o c i a l P o l i c y &  A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , V o l . 19, No. 1. Leman, C. (1980). The C o l l a p s e of Welfare Reform: P o l i t i c a l I n s t i t u t i o n s , P o l i c y and the Poor i n Canada and the U n i t e d  S t a t e s , Cambridge: The MIT Press. L e v i t a n S.A., Rein, M. & Marwick, D. (1984). Work and Welfare  Go Together. B a l t i m o r e : The John Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . Macarov, D. (1980). Work and Welfare: The Unholy A l l i a n c e . B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s . Masters, S.L. & Maynard, R. A. (1980). Supported Work: A d m i n i s t r a t i o n of S u b s i d i z e d Employment. E v a l u a t i o n  S t u d i e s Review Annual, V o l . 5, B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s . Monette, D.R., S u l i v a n , T.J. & Dejong, C.R. (1986). A p p l i e d  S o c i a l Research: T o o l s f o r the Hunam S e r v i c e s , Toronto: H o l t , R i n e h a r t & Winston. N i c h o l l s , W. & Dyson, W. (1983). The Informal Economy, Ottawa: The V a n i e r I n s t i t u t e of the Family. - 151 -O e t t i n g , E.R., Cole, C. W. & M i l l e r , C D . (1974). I n t e r v e n i n g  t o Improve Work Adjustment of the Disadvantaged, V o l . V I I , F o r t C o l l i n s Experimental Manpower Lab o r a t o r y , Colorado S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y . O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic Co-operation and Development. (1982). M a r g i n a l Employment S u b s i d i e s , P a r i s : OECD In f o r m a t i o n . P a t i n o , D.X. (1986). F i n d i n g Work f o r the Poor i n A r i z o n a , P u b l i c Welfare, V o l . 44, No. 1, pp. 16-17. Patton, M i c h a e l Q. (1978). U t i l i z a t i o n - F o c u s e d E v a l u a t i o n , B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s . P e t i t , M. R., & Wilcox, L.H. (1986). I n e s t i m a b l e but T a n g i b l e R e s u l t s i n Maine, P u b l i c Welfare, V o l . 44, No. 1, pp. 13-15. Power, C. (1986). An A n a l y s i s of the Long-term Unemployed i n the B.C./Yukon Region, Labour Market B u l l e t i n , Employment and Immigration Canada, Economic S e r v i c e s , A p r i l . P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia Budget (1987). V i c t o r i a : Queens P r i n t e r f o r B r i t i s h Columbia. Rajan, A. (1985). Job s u b s i d i e s : do they work?, B r o o k f i e l d , Vermont: Gower P u b l i s h i n g Company. Reid, W.J/ & Smith, A.D. (1981). Research i n S o c i a l Work, New York: Columbia U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . Rein, M. (1982). Dilemas of Welfare P o l i c y : Why Work S t r a t e g i e s Haven't Worked. New York: Preager P u b l i s h e r s . Report o f the Commission on E q u a l i t y i n Employment. (1984). Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. Ross, D.P. and Usher, P.J. (1986). From the Roots Up: Economic Development as i f Community Mattered. New York: The B o o t s t r a p P r e s s . Ross, J.A.B. (1985). F i f t y Years of S e r v i c e t o C h i l d r e n and t h e i r F a m i l i e s , S o c i a l S e c u r i t y B u l l e t i n , V o l . 48, No. 10. Rothman, J . (1980). U s i n g Research i n O r g a n i z a t i o n s : A Guide  to S u c c e s s f u l A p p l i c a t i o n , B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s . Royal Commission o f E n q u i r y on Unemployment Insurance. (1986). Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Prospects  f o r Canada. (1985). Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. - 152 -Seidman, E. & Rappaport, J . (1986). R e d e f i n i n g S o c i a l  Problems, New York: Plenum Press. Shragge, E. (1985). Taking Aim a t Canada's J o b l e s s , P e r c e p t i o n , V o l . 9 No. 1. S i e g e l , Sidney. (1956). Nonparametric S t a t i s t a i c s f o r the B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s , Toronto: McGraw-hill Book Company. Silkman, R., K e l l y , J.M., & Wolf, W.C. (1983). An E v a l u a t i o n of Two Preemployment S e r v i c e s , E v a l u a t i o n Review, V o l . 7 No. 4, pp. 467-496. S k l a r , M. H. (1986). Workfare: I s the Honeymoon Over - o r y e t t o come?, P u b l i c Welfare, V o l . 44, No. 1, pp. 30-32. S o c i a l P l a n n i n g C o u n c i l of M e t r o p o l i t a n Toronto. (1982) A Response t o "Un" Employment P o l i c i e s i n Canada, Toronto. S o c i a l P o l i c y Research A s s o c i a t e s / The E v a l u a t i o n Group I n c o r p o r a t e d . (1982). An E v a l u a t i o n of the O n t a r i o Work  I n c e n t i v e Program (WIN), Toronto: Author. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, (January 1985,1986,1987). The Labour Force, Catalogue 71-001, V o l s . 40,41 and 42, No. 12, Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, (1984). Labour Force Annual Averages, Catalogue 71-529, Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, (1986). P o s t c e n s a l Annual E s t i m a t e s o f P o p u l a t i o n by M a r i t i a l S t a t u s , Age, Sex, and Components of  Growth f o r Canada, Pr o v i n c e s and T e r r i t o r i e s . Cat. No. 91-210, V o l . 3. T h i r d Issue, Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. Swoap, D. B. (1986). Broad Support Buoys C a l i f o r n i a ' s Gain, P u b l i c Welfare. V o l 44, No. 1, pp. 24-27. Van C l e e f f , D. (1985). A Note on Long Term Unemployment, The  Labour Force Survey, S t a t i s t i c s Canada Catalogue No. 71-001, October, Ottawa: Supply and S e r v i c e s Canada. White, M. (1983). Long Term Unemployment and Labour Markets, London: P o l i c y S t u d i e s I n s t i t u t e . Young, R. (1985). An E c o l o g i c a l Approach t o Unemployment: I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r H e l p i n g , Natcon, Ottawa: Employment and Immigration Canada. - 153 -Appendix A. I * Employment and Emploi et Immigration Canada Immigration Canada Job Development . . . part of the Canadian Jobs Strategy The Job Development program i s d e s i g n e d to a s s i s t l o n g - t e r m unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s to p a r t i c i p a t e e f f e c t i v e l y i n the l a b o u r m a r k e t . Employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s c r e a t e d must p r o v i d e f o r a mix o f s k i l l s t r a i n i n g and work e x p e r i e n c e . INDIVIDUALLY SUBSIDIZED JOBS Eligible Sponsors: Eligible Clients: Proposals: T h i s component p r o v i d e s wage s u b s i d i e s to employers to h i r e employment d i s a d v a n t a g e d i n d i v i d u a l s to f i l l e i t h e r newly c r e a t e d p o s i t i o n s or c u r r e n t j o b v a c a n c i e s . Jobs s h o u l d p r o v i d e both t r a i n i n g and work e x p e r i e n c e f o r c l i e n t s , t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e i r c u r r e n t l e v e l of s k i l l s or s p e c i f i c d i s a d v a n t a g e ( s ) . B u s i n e s s e s , boards and p r o p o s a l s . o r g a n i z a t i o n s , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n d i v i d u a l s , g r o u p s , school are a l l e l i g i b l e to submit I n d i v i d u a l s who have been unemployed f o r at l e a s t 24 the l a s t 30 weeks AND are employment d i s a d v a n t a g e d . o f Employment d i s a d v a n t a g e d i n d i v i d u a l s are d e f i n e d as those who f a c e problems i n f i n d i n g j o b s because of s o c i a l or c u l t u r a l b a r r i e r s , p h y s i c a l or mental h a n d i c a p s . Employment E q u i t y r e c e i v e s s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n . P r o p o s a l s p r o v i d i n g j o b s f o r women, n a t i v e p e o p l e , d i s a b l e d p e r s o n s , v i s i b l e m i n o r i t i e s , and s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s w i l l r e c e i v e p r i o r i t y f u n d i n g . P r o p o s a l s s h o u l d show the type o f t r a i n i n g and work e x p e r i e n c e o f f e r e d . They must be n e g o t i a t e d w i t h the a s s i s t a n c e of the l o c a l Canada Employment C e n t r e (CEC) r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , and most o f t e n w i t h a d e f i n i t e r e f e r r a l i n m i n d . In t h i s way the p r o p o s a l can b e s t be o r g a n i z e d to match the needs of both the i n d i v i d u a l , and the e m p l o y e r . I t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t to keep i n mind t h a t the b a s i c d e s i r e i s to h e l p the c l i e n t l e a r n the s k i l l s needed to m a i n t a i n employment a f t e r the s u b s i d y p e r i o d i s o v e r . Public Affairs B.C. & Yukon Territory Reaion -154- 11*1 Training and Work Experience: B e f o r e meeting w i t h y o u r l o c a l CEC r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , the f o l l o w i n g i n f o r m a t i o n s h o u l d be p r e p a r e d : o A s h o r t j o b d e s c r i p t i o n o u t l i n i n g the work d u t i e s . o A b r i e f t r a i n i n g p l a n o u t l i n i n g the i n s t r u c t i o n to be p r o v i d e d , From 10 to 40" of the c o n t r a c t p e r i o d s h o u l d be spent i n t r a i n i n g , which c o u l d i n c l u d e b a s i c o r i e n t a t i o n to the j o b and use of t o o l s , or s p e c i f i c s k i l l t r a i n i n g a v a i l a b l e from l o c a l e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . The r e m a i n i n g time w i l l be d i r e c t e d to o n - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n g under c l o s e s u p e r v i s i o n . P l a n s f o r work e x p e r i e n c e s h o u l d b u i l d on the c l i e n t ' s c u r r e n t s k i l l s , and shoul d a s s i s t the worker reach a p o i n t o f f u l l competence to do the j o b a l o n e . Limitations: Employers may hi re up to a maximum 2 0 % o f t h e i r r e g u l a r w o r k f o r c e , or i n the c a s e of small b u s i n e s s e s o f under 10 e m p l o y e e s , a maximum of two w o r k e r s may be h i r e d . P r o p o s a l s are n o r m a l l y funded from 16 to 52 weeks. The d u r a t i o n o f the agreement wi 11 be d e t e r m i n e d by the l e n g t h o f time re qui red f o r the c l i e n t to 1 earn the n e c e s s a r y j o b s k i 11s. Such time w i l l v a r y from c l i e n t to c l i e n t . Financial Assistance: A wage s u b s i d y of up to $350 per c l i e n t week may be pay-a b l e i n t h r e e phases over the p o t e n t i a l 52 week p e r i o d : - up to 8 0 * o f g r o s s wages d u r i n g the f i r s t 13 weeks; - up to 50% d u r i n g the subsequent 26 weeks; up to 2 5 % f o r the r e m a i n i n g 13 weeks o f t r a i n i n g . The p e r c e n t a g e of s u b s i d y and the 1ength of time i n v o l v e d i n each of the above phases i s dependent on the t r a i n i n g pi an as i t r e l a t e s to the c l i e n t ' s n e e d s . Application Procedures: A d d i t i o n a l expenses r e l a t i n g to d i r e c t t r a i n i n g c o s t s , and s p e c i f i c changes to f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e d to accommodate d i s a b l e d c l i e n t s , may be c o v e r e d . I f the employer i s a n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n some a d d i t i o n a l o p e r a t i n g c o s t s may be r e i m b u r s e d . A p p l i c a t i o n s are r e c e i v e d y e a r - r o u n d s u b j e c t to a v a i l a b l e f u n d s . I n t e r e s t e d employers s h o u l d c o n t a c t t h e i r l o c a l CEC. Employers must not assume a p p r o v a l u n t i l so a d v i s e d by the CEC. E x p e n d i t u r e s i n c u r r e d p r i o r to the approved s t a r t date w i l l not be r e i m b u r s e d . - 155-PUB-014 (02-87) ( a u s s i d i s p o n i b l e en f r a n g a i s ) APPENDIX B Individually Subsidized Job Quest ionai re To be completed by re f e r r i n g counsellor P l e a s e mark an X i n the b r a c k e t s , at the b e g i n n i n g of the ap p r o p r i a t e response. Each question should have o n l y one response. C l i ent Name Social Insurance Number 1. How many times was t h i s I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job ( I S J ) co n t r a c t monitored? ( ) Once ( ) Twice ( ) Three times ( ) Four times ( ) Not known 2 . Ilowmany times d i d the r e f e r r i n g c o u n s e l l o r m o n i t o r t h i s ISJ c o n t r a c t ? ( ) Once ( ) Twi c e ( ) Three times ( ) Four times ( ) Other, ( ) None, a l l monitoring done by another c o u n s e l l o r 3. What was c l i e n t , the e x t e n t of c o u n s e l l o r i n t e r v e n t i o n w i t h t h i s p r i o r to p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job? ) Four or more interviews ) Three i n t e r v i ews ) Two interviews ) One i n t e r v i e w V i r t u a l l y none; employer ) Unknown i d e n t i f i e d or se1f-marketed c l i e n t - 156 -How would you a s s e s s the s k i l l l e v e l of the s u b s i d i z e d job r e l a t i v e to the job h e l d by the c l i e n t immediately p r i o r to the ISJ? ( ) S u b s t a n t i a l l y higher than the previous job ( ) Somewhat higher than the previous job ( ) Mo a p p r e c i a b l e change ( ) Lower than the previous job ( ) Unable to assess If the ISJ l e v e l was lower than the p r e v i o u s job, was there any p a r t i c u l a r reason? How much i n t e r a c t i o n d i d t h i s p a r t i c i p a n t have w i t h work c o l l e g u e s and/or the p u b l i c , in t h i s s u b s i d i z e d job? ( ) Very frequent c o n t a c t ; s e v e r a l times each hour. ( ) Frequent c o n t a c t ; s e v e r a l times each day. ( ) O c c a s i o n a l c o n t a c t , a few times each day ( ) L i t t l e c o n t a c t , a few times each week ( ) Not known Was there a career path or op p o r t u n i t y for job advancement from t h i s s u b s i d i z e d job,which w a s i d e n t i f i a b l e t o t h e c l i e n t . () V e r y c l e a r path w i t h d e f i n i t e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r advancement ( ) C l e a r path with some opportunity for advancement ( ) L i m i t e d o p p o r t u n i t y for advancement ( ) No o p p o r t u n i t y for advancement ( ) Unable to assess How w o u l d you r a t e the commitment of the i m m e d i a t e s u p e r v i s o r to the employment s k i l l s o b j e c t i v e of the ISJ program ( ) Very High ( ) High ( ) Moderate ( ) Low ( ) Mo commi tment ( ) Commitment not known - 157 -8. How w o u l d y o u h a v e a s s e s s e d t h i s c l i e n t ' s m o t i v a t i o n t o w o r k , a t t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h e I S J ? ( ) V e r y h i g h ( ) H i g h ( ) A v e r a g e ( ) P o o r ( ) V e r y P o o r Vf h a t was t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f e m p l o y m e n t o u t c o m e t h i s I S J c o n t r a c t ? f o r t h i s c l i e n t , u p o n E m p l o y e d v/i t h same e m p l o y e r , p r o m o t e d f r o m p r e v i o u s I S J E m p l o y e d w i t h same e m p l o y e r i n i d e n t i c a l j o b t o I S J E m p l o y e d w i t h same e m p l o y e r i n j o b u n r e l a t e d t o I S J E m p l o y e d w i t h a n o t h e r e m p l o y e r E m p l o y e d w i t h a n o t h e r e m p l o y e r i n j o b r e l a t e d t o I S J i n j o b u n r e l a t e d t o I S J In f o r m a l t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m U n e m p l o y e d and on Unemployment I n s u r a n c e U n e m p l o y e d and on S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e U n e m p l o y e d w i t h no known p u b l i c income s o u r c e W i t h d r a w n f r o m t h e l a b o u r f o r c e Employment s t a t u s n o t known ( ) O t h e r 10. In y o u r o p i n i o n , d i d t h i s c l i e n t b e n e f i t f r o m p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h i s I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d J o b ? ( ) Y e s , s u b s t a n t i a l b e n e f i t ( ) Y e s , d e f i n i t e l y some b e n e f i t ( ) V e r y l i t t l e b e n e f i t ( ) No known b e n e f i t ( ) U n a b l e t o a s s e s s 1 0 . B r i e f l y , i n y o u r own w o r d s , d e s c r i b e how t h i s c l i e n t b e n e f i t e d o r d i d n o t b e n e f i t f r o m t h i s I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d J o b . - 158 -i2 Summary o' netnoaology and procedures The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n w i l l be an e x p e r i m e n t a l , u n c o n t r o 1 1 e d s i n g l e g r o u p d e s i g n as i d e n t i f i e d by r e s e a r c h e r s R e i d and S m i t h i n 1981. The m e t h o d o l o g i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n o f t h e s t u d y w i l l be q u a n t i t a t i v e , u s i n g a c o v a r i a n c e r e s e a r c h model. The o t h e r model g u i d i n g t h e p r o j e c t w i l l be M i c h a e l Q. Pat t o n s rnoael o f ut I 1 I z a t l o n - f o c u s e d r e s e a r c h i d e n t i f i e d i n 1378. T h i s model b u i l d s i n t h e commitment o f p r o g r a m d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s at a l l s t a g e s o f t h e r e s e a r c h , t o t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s . ft p r o b a b i l i t y s a m p l i n g d e s i g n w i l l be u s ed t o i d e n t i f y r e l a t i o n -s h i p s and m e a s u r e t h e s t r e n g t h o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s b etween a n t e c e d e n t v a r i a b l e s and i n d e p e n d e n t p r o g r a m v a r i a b l e s c o mpared t o employment o u t c o m e s . The v a r i a b l e s c h o s e n f o r s t u d y h a v e been i d e n t i f i e d d u r i n g e x t e n s i v e c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h p r o g r a m m a n a g e r s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a t t h e Employment C e n t r e . Two modes o f o b s e r v a t i o n w i l l be u s e d . C l i e n t d a t a w i l l be e x t r a c t e d f r o m a c o m p u t e r p r i n t o u t and t h i s d a t a w i l l be s u p p l e m e n t e d w i t h a b r i e f , s e 1 f - a d m I n I s t e r e d q u e s t i o n a l r e c o m p l e t e d by t h e employment c o u n s e l l o r who o r i g i n a l l y r e f e r r e d t h e c l i e n t t o t h e p r o gram. T h i s d a t a c o l l e c t i o n w i l l be ex p o s t f a c t o as t h e s a m p l e w i l l be drawn f r o m c l i e n t s who h a v e c o m p l e t e d t h e p r o g r a m . ;SC3!PTI0N QF POPULATION 13 How many subjects will be used? ^ subjects How many In the contra 1 group? None ••i Who 13 being recruited and what are the c r i t e r i a for their selection? The p o p u l a t i o n chosen f o r study w i l l be a l l i n d i v i d u a l s who have p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e I n d i v i d u a l l y S u b s i d i z e d Job program between September 1985 and October 1986 i n one g e o g r a p h i c area of Vancouver and who have completed the program. The sample w i l l be a 100% sample of the p o p u l a t i o n . - 161 -APPENDIX E Tab l e s o f Non-Social A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t s and S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e R e c i p i e n t Sub Groups C l i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s T a b l e A - l . Sex Sex Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Male 27 10 54.0 71.4 Female 23 4 46.0 28.6 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 Tabl e A-2. Age Years Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 16 - 19 5 1 10. 0 7.1 20 - 24 15 4 30.0 28.6 25 - 34 18 8 36.0 57.2 35 - 44 6 1 12 . 0 7.1 45 - 54 4 0 8.0 0.0 55 - 64 2 0 4.0 0.0 A l l 50 14 100. 0 100.0 - 162 -Table A-3. Edu c a t i o n Completed Grade Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 8 o r l e s s 4 1 8.2 7.1 9 t o 11 15 3 30.6 21.4 12 25 6 51.0 42.9 13 5 4 10.2 28.6 ALL 49 14 100.00 100.0 Table A-4. Number of Months Worked i n Year  Immediately P r i o r t o I S J Months Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR None 37 10 74.0 71.4 One 2 2 4.0 14.3 Two 5 1 10.0 7.1 Three 1 1 2.0 7.1 Four 4 0 8.0 0.0 F i v e 1 0 2.0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 - 163 -T a b l e A-5. Number of Months Unemployed i n Year  Immediately P r i o r t o I S J Months Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 1 - 3 1 0 2.0 0.0 4 - 6 4 2 8.0 14.3 7 - 9 9 0 18. 0 0.0 10 - 12 36 12 72 . 0 85.7 ALL 50 14 100.0 100. 0 Table A-6. Number of Months Spent i n School  During Year Immediately P r i o r t o I S J Months Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR None 46 13 92.0 92.9 1 - 3 1 0 2.0 0.0 4 - 6 1 1 2.0 7.1 7 - 9 2 0 4.0 0.0 10 - 12 0 0 0.0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 100. 0 - 164 -T a b l e A-7. Number of Months Spent i n Other A c t i v i t i e s  Durino: Year Immediately P r i o r t o I S J Months Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 92.9 7.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 None 46 13 92.0 1 - 3 1 1 2.0 4 - 6 2 0 4.0 7 - 9 1 0 2.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 Tabl e A-8. L e v e l o f Family R e s p o n s i b i l i t y L e v e l Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR S i n g l e w i t h no dependents 37 10 74.0 71.4 M a r r i e d o r e q u i v a l e n t w i t h no dependents 2 0 4.0 0.0 M a r r i e d o r e q u i v a l e n t w i t h dependents 10 1 20.0 7.1 S i n g l e w i t h dependents 1 3 2.0 21.4 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 - 165 -T a b l e A-9. R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r ' s Assessment of C l i e n t M o t i v a t i o n M o t i v a t i o n Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Very High 8 2 16.0 14.3 High 37 9 74.0 64.3 Average 5 3 10.0 21.4 Poor 0 0 0.0 0.0 Very Poor 0 0 0.0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 Job S p e c i f i c V a r i a b l e s Table A-10. S u b s i d i z e d Jobs by Occupation Occupation Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Managerial and P r o f e s s i o n a l 3 0 6.0 0.0 C l e r i c a l and R e l a t e d 14 5 28.0 38.5 S a l e s 2 1 4.0 7.7 S e r v i c e 7 0 14.0 0.0 Primary 0 0 0.0 0.0 P r o c e s s i n g 20 3 40.0 23.1 C o n s t r u c t i o n Trades 1 1 2.0 7.7 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 0 1 0.0 7.7 M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g 3 2 6.0 15.4 ALL 50 13 100.0 100.0 - 166 -T a b l e A - l l . S u b s i d i z e d Jobs by I n d u s t r y I n d u s t r y Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR S e r v i c e S e c t o r 19 3 38.0 21.4 Trade 17 3 34.0 21.4 Manufacturing 13 3 26.0 21.4 C o n s t r u c t i o n 1 4 2.0 28.6 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 0 1 0.0 7.1 and Communication ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 T a b l e A-12. Intended Duration o f I S J Weeks Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 12 or l e s s 4 1 8.0 7.1 13 - 18 3 2 6.0 14.3 19 - 24 13 2 26.0 14.3 25 - 30 20 4 40.0 28.6 31 - 36 4 3 8.0 21.4 37 - 42 5 1 10.0 7.1 43 - 52 1 1 2.0 7.1 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 T a b l e A-13 A c t u a l Duration o f I S J Weeks Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 12 or l e s s 21 3 42.0 21.4 13 - 18 5 3 10.0 21.4 19 - 24 9 4 18.0 28.6 25 - 30 13 3 26.0 21.4 31 - 36 1 1 2.0 7.1 37 - 42 1 0 2 . 0 0.0 43 - 52 0 0 0.0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 Table A-14. D i f f e r e n c e between I S J Wage Rate  and Wage Rate i n Job Immediately P r i o r t o I S J IS J D i f f e r e n c e Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Gr e a t e r than o r equal t o $2. 7 3 19.4 23.1 $1 t o $1.99 g r e a t e r 3 1 8.3 7.7 Less than $1 g r e a t e r 7 1 19.4 7.7 V i r t u a l l y t he same 4 4 11.1 30.8 Less than p r e v i o u s j o b 15 4 41.7 30.8 ALL 36 13 100.0 100.0 - 168 -T a b l e A-15. S k i l l L e v e l of I S J R e l a t i v e t o Job  Immediately P r i o r t o I S J L e v e l Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR S u b s t a n t i a l l y h i g h e r 7 4 14.0 28.6 Somewhat h i g h e r 16 6 32.0 42.9 No a p p r e c i a b l e d i f f e r e n c e 14 3 28.0 21.4 Lower 4 0 8.0 0.0 Unable t o Assess 9 1 18.0 7.1 ALL 50 14 100.0 100. 0 Tabl e A-16. Extent o f S o c i a l I n t e r r a c t i o n  i n the I S J Contact w i t h work Number Percent c o l l e a g u e s &/or p u b l i c Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Very f r e q u e n t : 17 4 34.0 28.6 S e v e r a l times each hour Frequent: 27 10 54.0 71.4 S e v e r a l times each day O c c a s i o n a l : 6 0 12.0 0.0 A few times each day L i t t l e c o n t a c t : 0 0 0.0 0.0 A few times each week ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 - 169 -T a b l e A-17 Career Path I d e n t i f i a b l e t o  IS J P a r t P a r t i c i p a n t Path Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Very C l e a r 1 0 2.0 0.0 C l e a r 13 4 26.0 28.6 L i m i t e d 26 9 52.0 64.3 No Op p o r t u n i t y 8 1 16.0 7.1 Unable t o Assess 2 0 4.0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 Table A-18. Commitment of Immediate S u p e r v i s o r t o  Employment O b j e c t i v e s o f I S J L e v e l o f Commitment Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Very High 4 0 8.0 0.0 High 14 5 28.0 35.7 Moderate 21 5 42.0 35.7 Low 10 3 20.0 21.4 No commitment 1 1 2.0 7.1 ALL 50 14 100. 0 100.0 - 170 -A d m i n i s t r a t i v e V a r i a b l e s T a b l e A-19. Number of Interviews with R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r P r i o r t o I S J P a r t i c i p a t i o n Number of In t e r v i e w s Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR None 24 5 48. 0 35.7 One 6 4 12.0 28.6 Two 6 1 12.0 7.1 Three 7 3 14.0 21.4 Four 7 0 14.0 0.0 Not Known 0 1 0.0 7.1 ALL 50 14 100. 0 100.0 T a b l e A-20. T o t a l Number of M o n i t o r i n g V i s i t s M o n i t o r i n g V i s i t s Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR None 3 0 6.0 0.0 One 15 2 30.0 14.3 Two 20 10 40.0 71.4 Three 10 1 20.0 7.1 Four 2 1 4.0 7.1 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 Table A-21. M o n i t o r i n g Done Bv R e f e r r i n g C o u n s e l l o r M o n i t o r i n g V i s i t s Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR None 18 10 36.0 71.4 One 21 3 42.0 21.4 Two 10 1 20.0 7.1 Three 1 0 2 . 0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 - 171 -Labour Market V a r i a b l e s Table A-22. D i f f i c u l t y o f Job Search Number of U l Claimants Number Percent Per A d v e r t i s e d Job Vacancy Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR 0 - 1 0 16 1 61.5 25.0 11 - 20 4 1 15.4 25.0 21 - 30 2 1 7.7 25.0 More than 3 0 4 1 15.4 25.0 ALL 24 4 100.0 100.0 Tabl e A-23. Balance Between O c c u p a t i o n a l  Supply and Demand Balance Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Extreme S u r p l u s 0 0 0.0 0.0 Moderate S u r p l u s 10 0 41.7 0.0 L i g h t S u r p l u s 7 3 29.2 75.0 R e l a t i v e Balance 0 0 0.0 0.0 L i g h t Requirement 7 1 29.2 25.0 Moderate Requirement 0 0 0.0 0.0 Extreme Requirement 0 0 0.0 0.0 ALL 24 4 100. 0 100.0 - 172 -Outcome V a r i a b l e s T a b l e A-23. Immediate Employment Outcome Outcome Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR Promoted, w i t h same employer 2 1 4. 0 7.1 I d e n t i c a l j o b , same employer 19 4 38. 0 28.6 U n r e l a t e d j o b , same employer 0 0 0. 0 0.0 Re l a t e d j o b , d i f f e r e n t employer 4 1 8. 0 7.1 U n r e l a t e d j o b , d i f f e r e n t employer 3 2 6. 0 14.3 S e l f employed 2 0 4. 0 0.0 Unemployed, c o l l e c t i n g U l 2 0 4. 0 0.0 Unemployed, on S o c i a l A s s i s t a n c e 2 1 4. 0 7.1 Unemployed, not r e c e i v i n g p u b l i c 1 0 2. 0 0.0 income a s s i s t a n c e S t a t u s not known 13 5 26. 0 35.7 Moved out of area 2 0 4. 0 0.0 ALL 50 14 100. 0 100.0 Table A-23. C o u n s e l l o r s ' Assessment o f  C l i e n t B e n e f i t B e n e f i t Number Percent Non-SAR SAR Non-SAR SAR S u b s t a n t i a l b e n e f i t 13 2 26.0 14.3 D e f i n i t e l y some b e n e f i t 20 9 40.0 64.3 Very l i t t l e b e n e f i t 7 0 14.0 0.0 No known b e n e f i t 7 3 14. 0 14.3 Unable t o assess 3 1 6.0 7.1 ALL 50 14 100.0 100.0 - 173 -

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
https://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0096837/manifest

Comment

Related Items