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A self-organizational model of community evolution Slocombe, D. Scott 1985

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A SELF-ORGANIZATIONAL MODEL OF COMMUNITY EVOLUTION by D. Scott Slocombe B.I.S., The U n i v e r s i t y of Waterloo, 1983 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (School of Community and Regional Planning) We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to t h e ^ e ^ i r e d ^ s ' t a j i d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1985 © D. Scott Slocombe, 1985 In p resen t ing this thesis in partial fu l f i lment of the requ i rements for an a d v a n c e d deg ree at the Univers i ty of Brit ish C o l u m b i a , I agree that the Library shall make it freely avai lable for re ference a n d study . I further agree that pe rm iss ion for ex tens ive c o p y i n g of this thesis for scholar ly p u r p o s e s may be granted by the h e a d of m y d e p a r t m e n t o r by his o r her representat ives . It is u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n of this thesis for f inancia l gain shall not b e a l l o w e d w i t h o u t m y wr i t ten pe rm iss ion . D e p a r t m e n t of Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g The Un ivers i ty of Brit ish C o l u m b i a 1956 M a i n M a l l V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a V 6 T 1Y3 Date October 13 1985  DE-6(3 /81) i i ABSTRACT The purpose of t h i s work i s the development of a c o n c e p t u a l model of the i n t e r a c t i o n of e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l f a c t o r s i n community evolution. The theory of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n ( I l y a Prigogine and colleagues) i s used to r e l a t e the growing body of i n s i g h t s i n t o s o c i a l and s o c i e t a l evolution derived from sociology, anthropology, economics, the community and economic development l i t e r a t u r e , and other f i e l d s to the problems of planning. A s c h e m a t i c of t h e i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y m o d e l l i n g p r o c e s s and a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of models are developed. The assumptions and goals of the c o n c e p t u a l model presented here are made e x p l i c i t through the use of a "knowledge vee" (Novak & Gowin, 1984). The c o n c e p t u a l model of community evolution developed here e n t a i l s eight v a r i a b l es representing the ecologic, economic, and s o c i a l f a c t o r s (landscape, l a n d tenure, l a n d use, s o c i a l inputs, h i s t o r i c a l inputs, production, consumption, and resources) and four variables derived from evolutionary, non-equilibrium s o c i a l theory and s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n theory ("mass," "energy," " t e n s i o n , " and "entropy"). These variables are r e l a t e d conceptually to form a nonequilibrium, s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g "model" of community e v o l u t i o n . S e v e r a l p o s s i b l e examples of s e l f -organization processes i n human systems are b r i e f l y discussed. V a r i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s of the model f o r p l a n n i n g and understanding community e v o l u t i o n are examined. They i n c l u d e : the process view of e v o l u t i o n , the r o l e of the i n t e r n a l h i s t o r y of the system, the s t o c h a s t i c element i n s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g p rocesses, the i n f l u e n c e of e n v i r o n m e n t a l i i i c o n d i t i o n s , the importance of q u a l i t a t i v e change, and the mechanisms of long-range^5^der. i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract i i L i s t of Figures v Acknowledgements v i Chapter 1 - Introduction 1 Chapter 2 - Self-Organization Theory 12 Chapter 3 - Community, Society, and Environment: D i s c i p l i n a r y Views 26 Chapter 4 - A Conceptual Model of Community Evolution 40 Chapter 5 - Discussion and Conclusions 62 References 73 Appendix I - Glossary 85 V LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 - Schematic Diagram of the Modelling Process 8 Figure 2 - A Typology of Modelling 8 Figure 3 - Knowledge Vee Diagram 11 Figure 4 - The Conceptual Models S t r u c t u r a l Variables 45 v i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am g r a t e f u l to Brahm Weisman, W i l l i a m E. Rees, Norman G. Dale, Ed Levy, and Henry C. Hightower of the Univ e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia for t h e i r comments and su g g e s t i o n s on e a r l i e r d r a f t s of t h i s work. I am e s p e c i a l l y g r a t e f u l to Scott Carley f o r encouragement and advice r e l a t i n g to the f i n a l c h a p t e r s . I am in d e b t e d to Norman Dale, P e t e r Boothroyd and Kathy Nelson for suggestions r e l a t i n g to examples of se l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n human systems. I must a l s o acknowledge the c o n t r i b u t i o n of M u r i e l Kerr, without whose i n f l u e n c e the core of t h i s work might never have i n c l u d e d communities. F i n a l l y , I am g r a t e f u l to E r i c Higgs and James Kay of the U n i v e r s i t y of Waterloo f o r d i s c u s s i o n s and su g g e s t i o n s , past and present, r e l a t i n g to s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory. 1 CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION Whenever human beings are involved, s o c i a l adaptations and evolution make i t c e r t a i n that trend i s not destiny, because l i f e s t a r t s anew, f o r us, with each sunrise. (Rene Dubos i n Ortner, 1983) The l a s t s e v e r a l decades have seen the widespread r e c o g n i t i o n of the e x i s t e n c e of s o c i e t a l problems w i t h e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l aspects. E f f o r t s to address these problems are as diverse as those making proposals to address them. One of the more widely accepted of these e f f o r t s i s the concept of sustainable development — a concept that may be seen as a p o l i c y - o r i e n t e d melding of s t e a d y - s t a t e economics (Daly, 1973; 1974) and b i o r e g i o n a l i s m (Dodge, 1981; S a l e , 1985). The concept was brought to the a t t e n t i o n of d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s around the world by the World C o n s e r v a t i o n Strategy (IUCN/UNEP/WWP, 1980; Croner, 1984) and i s gaining acceptance as a p o l i c y g o a l i n many areas ( c f . Environment Canada, 1984). Yet t h e r e are a great many d i f f i c u l t i e s i n the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of, or even d e f i n i t i o n of, s u s t a i n a b l e development. Most of the d i f f i c u l t i e s are a r e s u l t of the i n t r i c a c i e s of t h e s o c i a l , e c o l o g i c a l , and e c o n o m i c p a r t s of our environment, e.g. the issues of s o c i a l and economic equity i n e v i t a b l y raised by discussions of environmental conservation. This work, by developing a conceptual s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l model of the i n t e r a c t i o n s of e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l f a c t ors i n the process of community e v o l u t i o n , seeks to c o n t r i b u t e to the understanding of the fundamental, s t r u c t u r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s of these factors. This approach, with 2 i t s use of a r e l a t i v e l y new, physical-science-based theory i s i n contrast to the more usual s t a t i c , d i s c i p l i n a r y , philosophical, e t h i c a l , p o l i t i c a l , and p l a n n i n g approaches to the i n t e g r a t i o n of these t h r e e f a c t o r s (as, f o r example, i n the World C o n s e r v a t i o n S t r a t e g y i t s e l f ) . S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory goes beyond the u s u a l systems view by f o c u s s i n g a t t e n t i o n on a system's i n t e r n a l dynamics and structure. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory d e s c r i b e s and attempts to e x p l a i n the g e n e r a t i o n of order out of d i s o r d e r , out of chaos, to use I l y a P r i g o g i n e ' s term, i n complex, open systems t h a t are f a r - f r o m - e q u i l i b r i u m w i t h t h e i r environment and which involve p o s i t i v e feedback loops nonlinear processes. Human systems are, of course, such systems and the tendency toward greater structure and order i n human systems through h i s t o r y i s pronounced, i n spite of the seemingly chaotic pattern of events and actors at any given time. Our t a s k w i l l be to use s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory t o examine the i n t e r a c t i o n of ec o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l f a c t o r s i n human systems. To t h i s end, a conceptual model of community evolution w i l l be developed to i l l u s t r a t e the process of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n a human system. F i n a l l y , the imp l i c a t i o n s f o r planners and planning of a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l conception of human systems are examined. T h i s t h e s i s i s l e s s an experiment or a hypothesis than an examination of the p o t e n t i a l usefulness, h e u r i s t i c value, of a new c o n c e p t i o n of the f u n c t i o n i n g of human systems. The goal i s understanding, not proof, of the r o l e of se l f - o r g a n i z i n g processes i n human systems, e.g., a community. The course followed i s an intermediate one between the two extremes of attempting either to define p r e c i s e l y and r e d u c t i o n i s t i c a l l y what i s meant 3 by "fa c t o r s " and by "community' or the meaningless, i f true, exploration of the statement th a t a l l these f a c t o r s i n t e r a c t and intergrade i n e x t r i c a b l y w i t h each other. The u n i f y i n g theory of t h i s work i s s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n ( N i c o l i s & Prigogine, 1977). The context i s developed from recent work i n economic and c u l t u r a l anthropology, ecosystem ecology p o l i t i c a l science and sociology, geography and history, and economic and community development. The rest of t h i s chapter w i l l make clear some assumptions I have made i n d e l i m i t i n g and choosing my topic and my methodology. I t w i l l provide an o u t l i n e of, r a t i o n a l e f o r , and comparison w i t h some other p o s s i b l e methodologies. This should enable the reader to understand what I have and have not done i n what f o l l o w s . Chapter 2 w i l l present s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory i n d e t a i l . Here I w i l l merely e x p l a i n why I have chosen i t as the u n i f y i n g theme of t h i s work. Chapter 3 w i l l review the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of community, society, and environment from the perspective of the d i s c i p l i n e s mentioned above. T h i s m a t e r i a l p r o v i d e s the substance from which the c o n c e p t u a l model of the i n t e r a c t i o n of e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l f a c t o r s i n community e v o l u t i o n (presented i n Chapter 4) i s developed. A f i n a l chapter d i s c u s s e s the o v e r a l l u s e f u l n e s s and a p p l i c a b i l i t y of the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view of s o c i e t a l p r o c e s s e s presented i n t h i s t h e s i s ; , focusing on the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g model for community and regional planning. To e l a b o r a t e on what I am examining, community''' e v o l u t i o n d e s c r i b e s A "community" as used i n t h i s work may be thought of as a subset of a s o c i e t y i n both space and time. Such a subset i s much more e a s i l y modelled than would be an en t i r e society (e.g., North American society, European s o c i e t y ) . 4 the changes that occur i n an aggregation of people i n a c e r t a i n geographical l o c a t i o n i n the course of time — from the formation of that community to i t s d e s t r u c t i o n ( M a r t i n d a l e , 1964), whether t h a t be f i v e y ears or f i v e thousand years. During that time, there w i l l be i n t e r a c t i o n s between the community and i t s natural environment ("ecological factors"): there w i l l be i n t e r a c t i o n s between the community's components and i t s s o c i a l and economic environments and, e s p e c i a l l y as the community grows ( i n numbers and area), i t w i l l develop an i n t e r n a l s o c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e t h a t i n t e r a c t s w i t h the s o c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e of the environment - thus the i n c o r p o r a t i o n of " s o c i a l " and "economic" f a c t o r s . The l a t t e r p e r s p e c t i v e may be seen as c e n t r a l to socio-economic impact assessment — SEIA — (cf. L e i s t r i t z & Chase, 1982). Community development seeks to manipulate the i n t e r a c t i o n s and the development process ( w h i l e SEIA seeks to a s s e s s and e v a l u a t e the impacts of such m a n i p u l a t i o n s ) i n order to a c h i e v e a "more desirable" i n t e r n a l structure or environment (e.g., Durston, 1977). The theory of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n , s imply put, i s a theory of the o r g a n i z a t i o n ( e v o l u t i o n ) of systems i n which f u t u r e s t a t e s depend non-d e t e r m i n i s t i c a l l y on the system's h i s t o r y . I t i s a r e s u l t of the work of I l y a Prigogine and h i s co-workers over the past f o r t y years i n the f i e l d of n o n - e q u i l i b r i u m thermodynamics ( P r i g o g i n e , 1962; G l a n s d o r f & P r i g o g i n e , 1971; N i c o l i s & P r i g o g i n e , 1977). S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory, although developed i n the context of c h e m i c a l thermodynamics, i s i n f a c t i d e a l l y s u i t e d ( f o r reasons made c l e a r i n the next chapter) f o r the m o d e l l i n g of s o c i a l processes. The prime d i f f i c u l t y , as N i c o l i s and Prigogine (1977, p. 5 473) have noted, i s choosing the relevant variables. T h i s d i f f i c u l t y has r e s u l t e d i n the main a p p l i c a t i o n s of s e l f -organization theory to non-physical-science problems being e i t h e r cases such as urban growth (Allen & Sanglier, 1978; Marchand, 1984), simple population ecology models (Allen, 1976) models of early b i o l o g i c a l evolution (Eigen, 1971), or s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of hymenoptera ( P r i g o g i n e , 1976) where the v a r i a b l e s can be chosen f a i r l y r e a d i l y or a r b i t r a r i l y ; or e l s e p u r e l y t h e o r e t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n of how s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n might proceed i n a human s o c i e t y ( T a y l o r , 1976; P r i g o g i n e , 1976: Ja n t s c h , 1980). I attempt to be intermediate to these two. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s a systems theory, but i t i s not a theory of systems. I t does represent a general property of systems and perhaps even a u n i f y i n g p r i n c i p l e i n s c i e n c e (of. P r i g o g i n e , 1980, 1985). Although i t u t i l i z e s many systems concepts ( c f . A c k o f f , 1971) i t i s not a theory t h a t r e l a t e s systems but r a t h e r one t h a t d e s c r i b e s the ( i r r e v e r s i b l e ) time e v o l u t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l systems ( P r i g o g i n e & Stengers, 1979). T h i s d i s t i n c t i o n i s i m p l i c i t i n Bunge's (1979 - quoted i n M a t t e s s i c h , 1982) mathematical systems theory d e f i n i t i o n of a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process. Self-organization theory i s perhaps intermediate between the "inexpungible c r a v i n g f o r g e n e r a l i t y " and numerous other f a u l t s of systems theory as a formal d i s c i p l i n e ( B e r l i n s k i , 1977), and the extreme reductionism of so many c l a s s i c a l models of s o c i e t y (e.g., i n economics, Solow, 1956). Although inv o l v i n g much more than a simple melding of systems science and physical c h e m i s t r y , s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory e x h i b i t s the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the contributions of systems science to physics i d e n t i f i e d by Willems (1984) — 6 that i s a bridging of the d e s c r i p t i v e / p r e s c r i p t i v e gap and the consideration of dynamic systems with external variables. The paradigm of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n goes beyond the p r o b a b i l i s t i c systems theory paradigm i n several ways. Systems theory i s a way of describing the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s of the elements of a system at a given p o i n t i n time; s e l f - o r g a n i z a i t o n theory i s concerned w i t h the i n t e r n a l dynamics and processes of the system and, most importantly, with the system's s t r u c t u r a l e v o l u t i o n over time. I n d e t e r m i n a c i e s i n systems theory are u s u a l l y the r e s u l t of complexity or lack of knowledge, i n s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory they are i n t r i n s i c to the nature of the evolutionary process. Systems theory i s a p u r e l y t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s t r u c t or way of l o o k i n g at the world: s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n i s an observed phenomenon i n c h e m i c a l and p h y s i c a l systems, with several competing theories to describe i t . The benefits of i n t e r p r e t i n g a region's or community's h i s t o r y through systems theory are e s s e n t i a l l y s t r u c t u r a l : i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of key elements of the community s t r u c t u r e , d e f i n i t i o n of the system boundaries and subsystems, and h i e r a r c h i a l p a t t e r n s of c o n t r o l and feedback. A f u l l y developed s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n would go further and permit i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the c r u c i a l processes that determine the evolution of the system, i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c r i t i c a l p o i n t s i n the system's h i s t o r y where minor f l u c t u a t i o n s produced major changes i n the system, and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the c o n d i t i o n s i n the system t h a t made (and w i l l make) the system susceptible to s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n events. Such, b r i e f l y , i s the background and the context of the work presented 7 i n the f o l l o w i n g chapters. Mention should be made of the main p r e v i o u s e f f o r t s , of which the author i s aware, to look at the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s of society and environment i n an h o l i s t i c and synthetic way. This i s the work of M i l l e r (1978, 1982) i n m o d e l l i n g a c o a s t a l B.C. f i s h i n g v i l l a g e . H i s approach i s t h a t of H o l l i n g ' s (1978) a p p l i e d systems a n a l y s i s ( p r e v i o u s l y exemplified by Chambers, 1971); the d i s c i p l i n a r y background he draws upon i s rather s i m i l a r to that described i n Chapter 3. However, M i l l e r ' s c e n t r a l concern was to develop a model f o r p o l i c y - m a k i n g i n the c o n t e x t of a p a r t i c u l a r s o c i o - e c o l o g i c a l s i t u a t i o n (the f i s h i n g v i l l a g e ) rather than to t e s t the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of a general theory (self-organization) i n the search for "lessons" about the process of community evolution. Let us look now at the methodology by which my model i s generated. F i g u r e 1 g i v e s a schematic diagram of the process of model g e n e r a t i o n . F i r s t , a c o n c e p t u a l s y n t h e s i s , or theory, i s developed based on extant d i s c i p l i n a r y knowledge, i n response to needs and objectives, i.e. a problem. Next, a formal synthesis or model i s formulated based, f o r example, on the mathematical techniques of q u a l i t a t i v e a nalysis — that i s methods for the analysis of unquantifiable s t r u c t u r a l change (Katzner, 1983). These include s e t theory (Dalen et a l . , 1976, Halmos, 1960), topology ( K e l l e y , 1961), and group theory ( L j a p i n , 1974). T h i r d l y , an o p e r a t i o n a l s y n t h e s i s , or simulation, i s prepared and implemented as a program running on a computer. This t h i r d step makes possible the l a s t step — that of generation of output or p r e d i c t i o n s f o r comparison w i t h " r e a l " systems and the c o n v e n t i o n a l wisdom of d i s c i p l i n a r y knowledge — by allowing multiple runs of the model with d i f f e r e n t data and assumptions. 8 d i s c i p l i n a r y (Inputs) knowledge (Theory) (Model) (Simulation) (Predictions) Figure 1 - Schematic Diagram of the Modelling Process Space Local Global Q) r 1 Projection " s p e c i a l i z e d expert" P r e d i c t i o n "comprehensive" t v-"§ Simulation " h o l i s t i c " Modelling " g l o b a l " Needs data (on whatever i s 4 being modelled) d i s c i p l i n a r y knowledge. — Testing . (feedback) Objectives d i s c i p l i n a r y knowledge I ..Conceptual synthesis 1 Formal synthesis I Operational synthesis — Outputs Figure 2 - A Typology of Modelling 9 While t h i s work develops the model to only the c o n c e p t u a l stage, the p r o c e s s o u t l i n e d above c o u l d be a p p l i e d . The t e c h n i q u e s of q u a l i t a t i v e a n alysis could be combined with those of vector analysis — the calculus of d i r e c t i o n a l forces — (Grossman, 1981; Buck, 1978; Royden, 1968) to develop a f o r m a l model of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l processes. An o p e r a t i o n a l model could be developed as a model of r e l a t i v e l y simple (is o l a t e d , small), well documented communities (e.g. i n the Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s : Devine, 1981, 1982, 1984) and compared with an h i s t o r i c a l model of a larger, older region such as Vancouver. Taking t h i s l a s t step would open the model to evaluation by standard m o d e l l i n g - f o r - p o l i c y techniques (e.g. Majone & Quade, 1980). Ad d i t i o n a l l y , computerization i s l i k e l y the only way to adequately simulate the complex r e p e t i t i v e p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d i n s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n and, i n a d d i t i o n , p r e s e n t s an i n t e r e s t i n g programming problem i n m o d e l l i n g the p a r a l l e l processes of society on a sequentially processing machine (Wolfram, 1984). Figure 2 further c l a r i f i e s the int e n t i o n of the model presented here by d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between four types of "modelling" c l a s s i f i e d along two (space and i n f o r m a t i o n ) dimensions i n a t y p o l o g y developed by the author. The present e x e r c i s e i s intended as a " s i m u l a t i o n " i n the sense of being s p a t i a l l y r e s t r i c t e d and ( r e l a t i v e l y ) i n f o r m a t i o n a l l y comprehensive. F i n a l l y , I w i l l make use of a "knowledge vee diagram" (Figure 3) which, to quote i t s o r i g i n a t o r s , (Novak & Gowin, 1984) i s an h e u r i s t i c , "a scheme f o r 'unpacking' the knowledge i n any p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d " (p. 55). I t i s 10 intended as a f i n a l c l a r i f i c a t i o n of the c o n c e p t u a l and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l assumptions and steps i m p l i c i t i n the development of the ideas that form the heart of t h i s work. I t compares the c o n c e p t u a l and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l at d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of a b s t r a c t i o n and f o r c e s one to i d e n t i f y the bases of one's methodology. From concepts to theories, on the one side, and records to r e s u l t s on the other, the contents of the fi g u r e describe the conceptual framework which the author brings to bear on t h i s work. 11 CONCEPTUAL ENTITIES WORLD VIEW: an h o l i s t i c approach to understand-ing an evolutionary universe community ( c f . Jantsch, 1980; Wuketits, 1984). PHILOSOPHY: a b e l i e f i n d i v e r s i t y of " s c i e n t i f i c research programmes" (Lakatos, 1970; Feyerabend, 1970). THEORY: s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n ( N i c o l i s & Prigogine, 1977) PRINCIPLES: non-equilibrium, nonlinear s o c i a l systems (Diener, 1980; Perroux, 1983) and h e u r i s t i c value of p r e d i c t i v e theories (Friedmann, 1953). CONSTRUCTS: community, tension FOCUS QUESTION: CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURES: system, mass, energy, environment, entropy. CONCEPTS: landscape, land use, land tenure, production, consumption, resources, s o c i a l inputs, h i s t o r i c a l inputs. METHODOLOGICAL ENTITIES VALUE CLAIM: as an h e u r i s t i c i n the study of communities and the f a c i l i t a t i o n of sustain-able development. KNOWLEDGE CLAIM: that the present model repre-sents a new exploration, compatible with present d i s c i p l i n a r y knowledge. INTERPRETATION: of the theory i n the context of community and society. RESULT: a d e s c r i p t i o n of evolution of communities i n terms of the theory of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n . TRANSFORMATIONS: the observations of econ-omists, anthropologists, h i s t o r i a n s , s o c i o l o g i s t s , e c ologists, and develop-ment workers about communities. FACTS: observed processes of community evolution (e.g., Martindale, 1964; Arndt, 1981; C o t t r e l l , 1976; Bowles, 1981; B l i s h e n et a l . , 1979). RECORDS OF EVENTS OR OBJECTS: com-munity h i s t o r i e s and time-series data. e.g. for Northwest T e r r i -t o r i e s (Devine, 1981, 1983, 1984). EVENT: Community evolution. Figure 3 - Knowledge Vee Diagram of Conceptual Structure for t h i s Work 12 CHAPTER 2 - SELF-ORGANIZATION The beginner should not be discouraged i f . . . he f i n d s t h a t he does not have the prerequisites for reading the prerequisites. (P. Halmos, 1950) The theory of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s a l a r g e , complex, and h i g h l y mathematical subject. The treatment given here i s intended to develop the i n t u i t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e understanding of i t necessary f o r understanding the c o n c e p t u a l model of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n processes i n community evolution presented l a t e r . In what follows I have drawn p r i m a r i l y on Prigogine (1962, 1976, 1978, 1980), N i c o l i s and P r i g o g i n e (1977), P r i g o g i n e et a l . (1978), and P r i g o g i n e and Stengers (1984). Other r e f e r e n c e s w i l l be c i t e d as needed. T h i s t h e s i s f o l l o w s P r i g o g i n e ' s s c h o o l of self-organization. Other s i m i l a r t h e o r i e s which use d i f f e r e n t mathematical t h e o r i e s (Haken, 1983a,b) or are intended to apply to non-human systems (Zeleny, 1981) do e x i s t but are beyond the scope of t h i s work to consider. C e n t r a l to the theory of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n are the concepts of i s o l a t e d , closed, and open systems, and entropy as formulated i n chemical thermodynamics. An i s o l a t e d system exchanges neither matter nor energy with i t s environment, a closed system exchanges energy, an open system both matter and energy, with i t s environment. Entropy, S, i s defined (by the second law of thermodynamics) as a function of the state of the system (i.e., of a number of s p e c i f i e d independent variables assumed to describe the system) and i s an extensive property (i.e., defined by the system as a whole as are mass, m, and volume, v). I n t e n s i v e p r o p e r t i e s , e.g., p, p r e s s u r e and T, a b s o l u t e 13 temperature are those which take on well-defined values at each point i n the system. The change i n entropy w i t h i n a system, dS, may be s p l i t i n t o two parts, due to entropy production external (e) and i n t e r n a l ( i ) to the system: dS = d eS + d iS at equilibrium dS = d gS = d^S = 0 (1) In an i s o l a t e d system ther e i s no entropy f l o w as d gS = 0 and dS = d^S S 0. I f d^S = 0 then the system i s at e q u i l i b r i u m . T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s i r r e v e r s i b l e i n the absence of exchanges w i t h the system's environment, i.e., entropy i s not conserved, i t i s always p o s i t i v e or zero and, therefore, provides a universal law of the macroscopic (i.e., large-scale, v i s i b l e i n c o n t r a s t to the m i c r o s c o p i c or m o l e c u l a r ) e v o l u t i o n of physico-chemical systems. In a closed system: dS = dC^  = dE + pdv; where E = energy p = pressure T T T T = abs. temp. Q = heat v = volume (2) t h a t i s , the entropy of the system equals the sum of heat (a measure of i n t e r n a l energy) produced i n the system plus work (a function of changes i n pressure and volume) done at the boundary (of the system). A l t e r n a t i v e l y , F = E - TS F = Helmholtz free energy (3) which i s the c l a s s i c a l statement of the c o m p e t i t i o n between entropy and energy. When T i s low, the contribution of E predominates, when T i s high, the entropy term dominates. T h i s c o m p e t i t i o n i s embodied i n Boltzmann's 14 ordering p r i n c i p l e , which applies near equilibrium and, expressed i n terms of molecular disorder i n an i s o l a t e d gaseous system, i s expressed as: S = K log P. K = Boltzmann's constant 1.38 x I C T 2 3 j k _ 1 P = Number of complexions = the number of ways n molecules can be divided i n t o 2 groups n-^  and n 2 n! n x ! n 2 ! (4) The value of S = KlogP reaches a maximum when n-^  = n 2 = n/2 — the normal s i t u a t i o n i n a gaseous system at e q u i l i b r i u m . E q u i v a l e n t l y , i n a c l o s e d system, F reaches a minimum when the system i s at equilibrium, r e f l e c t i n g the f a c t S i s at a maximum. E q u i l i b r i u m s t r u c t u r e s , those which commonly r e s u l t i n i s o l a t e d and c l o s e d systems, a f t e r a s u f f i c i e n t l y long p e r i o d of time, as a r e s u l t of i r r e v e r s i b l e entropic (spontaneous) processes, are dominated by Boltzmann's ordering p r i n c i p l e , the competition between energy and entropy — thus at low temperatures we have r e l a t i v e l y ordered structures — things freeze — while at high temperatures we have gases. I t i s , however, open systems f ar from e q u i l i b r i u m t h a t w i l l be of primary concern to us here. I t i s here that " d i s s i p a t i v e structures" — structures that are maintained by flows of energy and matter a c r o s s the system boundaries, t h a t d i s s i p a t e energy i n s t r u c t u r a l maintenance, appear and the p r i n c i p l e of "order through f l u c t u a t i o n s " replaces Boltzmann's ordering p r i n c i p l e . An open system can e x i s t i n t h r e e d i f f e r e n t forms: thermodynamic e q u i l i b r i u m , l i n e a r n o n - e q u i l i b r i u m , and f a r from e q u i l i b r i u m when the 15 c o n s t r a i n t s on the system m a i n t a i n i t t h a t way. An open system at thermodynamic e q u i l i b r i u m i s d e s c r i b e d by e q u a t i o n 4 above. For an open system i n the region of l i n e a r non-equilibrium: cLjjS = Z X • J • S 0 where the J •' s represent the dt j r a t e s (of r e a c t i o n s ) and the X-'s the c o r r e s p o n d i n g f o r c e s (diffus i o n ) of the i r r e v e r s i b l e or e n t r o p i c processes occurring i n the system. (5) The f o r c e s cause the f l u x e s and both have a macroscopic order to them (Prigogine & Stengers, 1979). At thermodynamic eq u i l i b r i u m J j = Xj = d^S = 0 f o r a l l i r r e v e r s i b l e p rocesses s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . An i m p o r t a n t g e n e r a l r e s u l t of non-equilibrium thermodynamics i s that d i s s i p a t i v e structures, and thus s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n , can only occur i n systems f a r from e q u i l i b r i u m where the processes occurring are non-linear and involve c a t a l y t i c steps sustained by flows of energy and matter from outside the system (i.e., where equation 5 does not hold). In an open system d eS = -d^S < 0 which i s to say t h a t a decrease i n the entropy of a system can occur as a r e s u l t of exchanges (flows) of energy and matter over the boundary of the system. While i t i s p o s s i b l e to describe the entropic evolution of an i s o l a t e d or closed system r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l y u s i n g the c l a s s i c a l methods of e q u i l i b r i u m thermodynamics, or P r i g o g i n e ' s e x t e n s i o n of those methods f o r open, " l i n e a r " systems, such a d e s c r i p t i o n f o r an open n o n l i n e a r system i s very complex, even i n theory. N i c o l i s and P r i g o g i n e (1977; Chapter 5) d e r i v e g e n e r a l equations f o r the 16 time evolution of a chemical system con s i s t i n g of mass-balance equations: 3£ = f i ( { P i } ) + Di V ^ i 9t Di = d i f f u s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t Pi = composition variables of the system f i = describe the o v e r a l l rate of production of constituent X i (6) and an equation for i n t e r n a l energy conservation: 3T = div AVT + Z(-H )W (T,{ P i}) 1 3t p v v J Wp = v e l o c i t y of reaction p C = s p e c i f i c heat of the mixture AHp = heat of reaction p with mathematically appropriate boundary conditions, usually e i t h e r , (7) D i r i c h l e t Neumann {p x. Pn } = {const} or Z Z {n« Vpj, . . ., n*Vp} = {const} (8) (9) which b a s i c a l l y provide a vector calculus evaluation of heat produced and work done at the boundary of the system. Of p a r t i c u l a r importance i n the m o d e l l i n g of a c o n c r e t e problem are the form of the " c h e m i c a l " laws determining the reaction rates and the value of such parameters as d i f f u s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , r a t e c o n s t a n t s , the s i z e of the system (too s m a l l a system 17 w i l l always be dominated by boundary c o n d i t i o n s [Hanson, 1974]) and the nature of the applied constraints ( N i c o l i s & Prigogine, 1977). To r e t u r n to a more q u a l i t a t i v e approach to the problem of m o d e l l i n g the evolution of the structure of an open system f a r from equilibrium, l e t us r e i t e r a t e that as a system moves from equilibrium to far from equilibrium and/or from i s o l a t i o n to openness, i t becomes more complex, i t s i n t e r n a l dynamics become n o n - l i n e a r and, f i n a l l y , i t s s t r u c t u r e or s t a t e , becomes l e s s s t a b l e . That group of s t a b l e s t a t e s of the system i n a f i n i t e neighbourhood of the equilibrium state i s known as the thermodynamic branch (branch r e f e r s to a" b r a n c h " of s o l u t i o n s of the s t a t e e q u a t i o n s ) . Beyond some c r i t i c a l v alue of a s t a t e parameter or c o n s t r a i n t , however, t h e r e i s the p o s s i b i l i t y that the states on the thermodynamic branch become unstable. In such a case, a seemingly minor disturbance, or f l u c t u a t i o n , may cause the system to evolve i n a new d i r e c t i o n , away from the previous thermodynamic branch — i n mathematical terms we have a b i f u r c a t i o n that r e s u l t s i n a new family of solutions to the state equations. The d i s s i p a t i v e structure which occurs f ar from equilibrium manifests i t s e l f i n a l l c a s e s by " c o h e r e n t b e h a v i o r " a t a m a c r o s c r o p i c , or supramolecular, l e v e l . I t r e s u l t s i n order, often "new" order, as a r e s u l t of the a m p l i f i c a t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s ( t h i s i s the r o l e of the n o n - l i n e a r mechanism of the system's dynamics) i n the neighbourhood of a b i f u r c a t i o n point on the thermodynamic branch of the system. In chemical systems, t h i s s p a t i a l l y coherent behaviour may be manifested by the appearance of a time p e r i o d i c i t y i n a c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n . Thus, N i c o l i s and P r i g o g i n e (1977) d e s c r i b e the e v o l u t i o n of a d i s s i p a t i v e s t r u c t u r e as a s e l f - d e t e r m i n i n g 18 sequence. A c c o r d i n g to t h e i r scheme, s t r u c t u r e impacts f u n c t i o n which impacts f l u c t u a t i o n which feeds back to structure again. The b i f u r c a t i o n i n t r o d u c e s h i s t o r y i n t o p h y s i c s and c h e m i s t r y ( P r i g o g i n e , 1980, 1985; P r i o g o g i n e & Stengers, 1979, 1984). In c o n t r a s t , the e v o l u t i o n of most c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n s i s determined by the i n i t i a l r e a c t i o n s and e x t e r n a l conditions, such as P and T. T h i s approach i n v o l v e s both d e t e r m i n i s t i c and stocha s t i c elements i n describing the time evolution of the macroscopic system. At points f a r from b i f u r c a t i o n the d e t e r m i n i s t i c equations s u f f i c e (i.e., equations 6-9), near the b i f u r c a t i o n p o i n t s s t o c h a s t i c elements become e s s e n t i a l i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of which f l u c t u a t i o n i s a m p l i f i e d and thus what new thermodynamic branch the system w i l l follow. I t i s here that Thorn (1975) parts from Prigogine — by a mathematical s i m p l i f i c a t i o n he determines the system parameters and founds catastrophe theory. As a methodological aside, I might note that I am using Prigogine's mathematical approach as a guide, r a t h e r than c a t a s t r o p h e theory, because of the l a t t e r ' s p r e f e r e n t i a l a p p l i c a b i l i t y to systems that maximize or minimize some (potential) function (e.g., entropy or energy, respectively), i.e., optimize some functions (Post & Stewart, 1978). Many s o c i e t a l subsystems (firms, i n d i v i d u a l s , etc.) may o p t i m i z e but to a t t r i b u t e such a goal (or even the e x i s t e n c e of such a f u n c t i o n ) to s o c i e t y or community, seems at best premature, at worst a singular instance of hubris on the part of the th e o r i s t . The s t o c h a s t i c element c o n s i s t s of two p a r t s : 1) The a p r i o r i p r o b a b i l i t y f o r having a c e r t a i n f l u c t u a t i o n i n a complex system, and 2) the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h i s f l u c t u a t i o n spreads and at t a i n s a macroscopic range 19 and amplitude. D i f f u s i o n plays an e s p e c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n the second of these components by dampening the spread and growth of system f l u c t u a t i o n s . D i s s i p a t i v e s t r u c t u r e s show t h a t long-range (space-time structure) order can be generated by processes at the microscopic l e v e l . Jantsch (1980) summarizes the essence of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n quite well when he describes i t as "the co-evolution of macro- and micro-cosmos" and c a l l s i t an emerging paradigm wi t h t h r e e key a s p e c t s : "a s p e c i f i c macroscopic dynamics of process systems, continuous exchange and co-e v o l u t i o n w i t h the environment, and s e l f transcendence, the e v o l u t i o n of e v o l u t i o n a r y processes" (p. 9). Two f i n a l aspects of se l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory need to be c l a r i f i e d here before we proceed to a b r i e f review of the relevance of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory for modeling of s o c i a l processes. They are the r o l e s and treatment of s t a b i l i t y and s t o c h a s t i c i t y i n the evolution of d i s s i p a t i v e structures. When we t a l k about the s t a b i l i t y of the thermodynamic branch we are concerned with two d i f f e r e n t kinds of s t a b i l i t y — Lyapounov s t a b i l i t y and s t r u c t u r a l s t a b i l i t y . Although t h e r e are complex f o r m a l d e f i n i t i o n s of both, the d i s t i n c t i o n i s put si m p l y and s u c c i n c t l y by H a s t i n g s (1984) — Lyapounov s t a b i l i t y i s concerned w i t h p e r t u r b a t i o n s , s h i f t s i n the quantitative state of the system, while s t r u c t u r a l s t a b i l i t y i s concerned w i t h the e f f e c t of p e r t u r b a t i o n s i n the q u a l i t a t i v e parameters of the system. Prigogine (1980) expresses s t r u c t u r a l s t a b i l i t y as r e f l e c t i n g the i d e a of i n n o v a t i o n , the appearance of a new mechanism or s p e c i e s t h a t was i n i t i a l l y absent from the system. Methods of a c t u a l l y a s s e s s i n g the 20 s t a b i l i t y of a system d e f i n e d as i n e quations 7 to 10 above are q u i t e complex, when indeed they e x i s t , and won't be explained here. Although t h e r e i s a b r a n c h o f s t a t i s t i c a l m e c h a n i c s known as f l u c t u a t i o n theory, i t i s not of much use i n other ap p l i c a t i o n s due to the d i f f i c u l t y of d e f i n i n g the form of the system's p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n . S t o c h a s t i c theory i s of more use to us here. I t s b a s i c i d e a i s t h a t the v a r i a t i o n of a^ v a l u e s , as a r e s u l t of a f l u c t u a t i o n ( i n an ensemble of variables {a^} determining the macroscopic state of the system) does not depend on the independent variable (time) i n a well-defined manner, i.e., i s a random or s t o c h a s t i c process. Thus, o b s e r v a t i o n of d i f f e r e n t members of a representative group of systems r e s u l t s i n d i f f e r e n t functions a^(t) from which we can define s u i t a b l e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s such as, P r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s are often described by a few " t y p i c a l values" of which the expectation: P 1({a} t) {da} = P r o b a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g {a} within {d}, ' {a + da} at t ?2^ai^t\ {a2}t2){da^}{da2} = P r o b a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g {a^} within {a-i}, {a-i + da-i} at (10) <ax> = E a k P,({ a i} ({a}), t) , {a} (11) 21 i s the most important. As i t does not depend e x p l i c i t l y on f l u c t u a t i o n s , however, one must introduce expectations of quadratic or higher order from which v a r i a n c e can be d e r i v e d ( N i c o l i s & P r i g o g i n e , 1977, p. 225). There are three p r i n c i p a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s : the binomial, Poissonian, and Gaussian (see P o l l a r d , 1977). The binomial and Poissonian a r i s e i n cases inv o l v i n g B e r n o u i l l i t r i a l s ; the Gaussian, t y p i c a l l y as a l i m i t i n g case of the law of l a r g e numbers. From t h i s and the d e f i n i t i o n of an e x t e n s i v e s t o c h a s t i c v a r i a b l e i t can be shown t h a t the r e l a t i v e importance of f l u c t u a t i o n s d i m i n i s h e s as the s i z e (volume) of the system i n c r e a s e s ( N i c o l i s & P r i g o g i n e , 1977) — but f o r n o n e q u i l i b r i u m i n s t a b i l i t i e s l e a d i n g to d i s s i p a t i v e structures t h i s ceases to be true and the law of large numbers breaks down (that i s to say, that the p r o b a b i l i t y of the sample average and the p o p u l a t i o n mean d i f f e r i n g by l e s s than a p r e s c r i b e d amount ceases to approach one as the number of variables approaches i n f i n i t y ) . Thus, i t has been shown that for nonlinear reactions occurring f a r from equilibrium the v a r i a t i o n (form of the u n d e r l y i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n ) of f l u c t u a t i o n s changes q u a l i t a t i v e l y as t h e i r s c a l e i n c r e a s e s . They may be a m p l i f i e d i n the presence of i n s t a b i l i t i e s and drive the system to a new and d i f f e r e n t state. One approach to obtaining a master equation d e s c r i p t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s i s to t r e a t t h e i r g e n e r a t i o n as a Markovian " b i r t h and death" process (a stochastic process i n which the future depends s o l e l y on the present state) by assigning a set of t r a n s i t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s describing the process i n the space of some appropriate stochastic variables ( N i c o l i s & Prigogine, 1977). This approach suf f e r s from i t s emphasis on c o l l e c t i v e variables, treatment 22 of the system as a whole, and the g l o b a l c h a r a c t e r of the b i r t h - a n d - d e a t h method. What i s needed i s a l o c a l d e s c r i p t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n i n non-e q u i l i b r i u m systems. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s a r e s u l t of the breakdown of the law of l a r g e numbers , a r e s u l t of the f a c t that nonlinear systems f a r from equilibrium c o n s i s t of d i f f e r e n t macroscopic regions that do not evolve independently but r a t h e r become coupled v i a long-range c o r r e l a t i o n s (of f l u c t u a t i o n s ) . That i s to say that the system's behaviour becomes non-Poissonian, although i n a s m a l l enough r e g i o n of the system, i t s behaviour (as the mean-square deviation <fx >) can be approximated by a Poissonian (in terms of t r i a l s and s uccesses of f l u c t u a t i o n s ) . Thus the system's e v o l u t i o n i n terms of the average of some extensive stochastic variables can be described i n terms of a macroscopic e x p r e s s i o n and the d e v i a t i o n from the P o i s s o n i a n ; which deviation u l t i m a t e l y takes over and drives the average to a new macroscopic regime. Thus a c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n e x h i b i t i n g s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n w i l l be e x h i b i t i n g s p a t i a l l y coherent, synchronized behaviour (e.g., regular colour changes) at a macroscopic, v i s i b l e l e v e l (Turner, 1982). Micro s c o p i c a l l y , at a s u f f i c i e n t l y small s p a t i a l and temporal scale, the reaction structure w i l l be f l u c t u a t i n g randomly. The essence of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s the s e l e c t i v e a m p l i f i c a t i o n of c e r t a i n m i c r o s c o p i c f l u c t u a t i o n s over a macroscopic range to y i e l d m a c r o s c o p i c a l l y coherent behaviour t h a t i s fundamentally d i f f e r e n t from the previous (random) behavior. T h i s has been an attempt to o u t l i n e the p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e o r i g i n s and mathematical methods of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory. The c r u c i a l concepts and mechanisms are those of non-linear, far-from-equilibrium open systems, whose 23 time evolution along the thermodynamic branch may pass through regions of i n s t a b i l i t y where m i c r o s c o p i c f l u c t u a t i o n s can be a m p l i f i e d (by the n o n l i n e a r processes) c a u s i n g a macroscopic d e p a r t u r e from the t y p i c a l l y Poissonian behaviour of such f l u c t u a t i o n s , r e s u l t i n g i n long-range order v i a f l u c t u a t i o n s , a new q u a l i t a t i v e behaviour of the system. The r i g o r o u s a p p l i c a t i o n of these ideas and techniques to simple physical and b i o l o g i c a l problems i s d i f f i c u l t — a s i m i l a r a p p l i c a t i o n to s o c i a l systems i s undoubtedly i m p o s s i b l e at the present time. Yet, t h a t i s not to say t h a t nothing can be l e a r n e d from an a p p l i c a t i o n of the theory of s e l f -organization to s o c i a l systems. N i c o l i s and Prigogine (1977) acknowledged the temptation (as a r e s u l t of the widespread presence of "structure" i n human s o c i e t i e s ) to apply s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n theory (and e s p e c i a l l y the i d e a of s t r u c t u r a l s t a b i l i t y ) to s o c i o - c u l t u r a l evolution. They noted a couple of examples of applications ( A l l e n , 1976; A l l e n & S a n g l i e r , 1978, 1981), and t h a t " i t c l e a r l y appears s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory i s an emerging paradigm of s c i e n c e " (p. 474). Self-organization theory i s intermediate between the basic laws of c l a s s i c a l and quantum dynamics and the representation of natural phenomena by games of w h i c h " t h e b a s i c e l e m e n t s a r e c hance and law, . . . and i t i s the consequences of chance t h a t are s u b j e c t to r e g u l a t i o n " (Eigen & Winkler, 1981, p. x i i i ) . Prigogine (1976) c i t e d Frangois Perroux's idea of the d i a l e c t i c between the mass and the minority i n human society i n a summary of h i s description of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory as a p o s s i b l e u n i f y i n g theory i n s o c i o l o g y . 24 Mass represents the average behaviour of man, minority the f l u c t u a t i o n s i n society which, when they exceed a c r i t i c a l l e v e l , influence the average by d r i v i n g the system to a new average l e v e l . From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , he emphasized the nonlinear nature of the evolution of s o c i a l phenomena, the coherent behaviour of a society, the importance of change i n the d e s c r i p t i o n of s o c i a l systems as coherent systems, and the f a c t t h a t s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e finds i t s expression i n constraints imposed upon the i n d i v i d u a l . The r o l e of the i n d i v i d u a l i n s o c i e t a l s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s e s has r e c e i v e d prominence i n two separate accounts; one from the point of view of economics (Day, 1983), the o t h e r from the p o i n t of view of c o g n i t i v e s c i e n c e (Smith, 1983). S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s , i m p l i c i t l y and e x p l i c i t l y , a major p a r t of Rosnay's (1979) "macroscope" (see also Anthony, 1969; Odum, 1971); a new way of looking at and dealing with modern society (the book might be thought of as a c o n t i n e n t a l answer to how to manage "The T h i r d Wave"). H i s main achievement i s r e c o g n i t i o n of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of modern s o c i e t y t h a t make the postulation of s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g processes plausible. Balkus (1983) has attempted, i n a r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t s e r i e s of papers, to " d e s c r i b e the s t r u c t u r e and process of s o c i e t a l s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n " i n terms of s o c i a l necessity giving r i s e to organizing forces and thence to f u n c t i o n a l domains or plans. A c c o r d i n g to him p l a n n i n g and p l a n s are the v e h i c l e s of the s o c i e t a l s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process; they i d e n t i f y and amplify f l u c t u a t i o n s . T h i s i s an i d e a to which we w i l l r e t u r n at the end of t h i s t h e s i s i n the context of community development and planning. C l e a r l y , there i s some j u s t i f i c a t i o n and precedent for the modeling of 25 community evolution as a s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g process. Self-organization occurs i n complex systems that exchange matter and energy with t h e i r environment and at l e a s t some of where i n t e r n a l p r o c e s s e s are r e g u l a t e d by p o s i t i v e feedback loops. Such a system w i l l be f a r - f r o m - e q u i l i b r i u m w i t h i t s environment. The evolution of the system w i l l include times of i n s t a b i l i t y of the system structure or organization when a seemingly minor event within the system t r i g g e r s a major change i n i t s structure and organization. This new order i s the r e s u l t of the c o u p l i n g of many minor changes over r e l a t i v e l y long d i s t a n c e s w i t h i n the system. T h i s new order i s a d i s s i p a t i v e structure, the r e s u l t of self-organization. What we hope to gain i s an understanding of the dynamics of the process to supplement the more usual s t a t i c d e s c r i p t i o n of the steps i n the process. There are two c r u c i a l problems: the c h o i c e of v a r i a b l e s (addressed i n Chapters 3 and 4) and the question of how to a c t u a l l y model the process that r e l a t e s the v a r i a b l e s (addressed i n Chapter 4). The m a t e r i a l i n the next chapter w i l l form the basis for the actual model. 26 CHAPTER 3 - COMMUNITY, SOCIETY, AND ENVIRONMENT: DISCIPLINARY VIEWS A r t would l i k e to stop being pretense and play, i t would l i k e to become knowledge. T. Mann, Doctor Faustus The goal of t h i s chapter i s to present d i s c i p l i n a r y views of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of community, s o c i e t y , and environment and the nature and r e l a t i o n s h i p s of t h e i r e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s and processes. I want to suggest that there are strong common themes among the d i s c i p l i n a r y views that emphasize connectedness, s t a b i l i t y , d i scontinuity, f l u c t u a t i o n and evolution and the r o l e of these i n determining structures and processes. These ideas are c r u c i a l to the elaboration of the concep-t u a l model i n the next chapter. S o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s and p r o c e s s e s i n human systems may have s e v e r a l m a n i f e s t a t i o n s . One of the most important i s c u l t u r e — the developed s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e of s o c i e t y . E c o l o g i c a l a n t h r o p o l o g i s t s see c u l t u r e as s u b j e c t to the laws governing l i v i n g organisms as a r e s u l t of c u l t u r e ' s immanence i n l i v i n g organisms (Rappaport, 1971). Thus, Bennett (1978) argued that most s o c i a l or human e c o l o g i c a l systems, t y p i c a l l y open systems, are never i n a s t a t e of t r u e e q u i l i b r i u m : they "move c o n s t a n t l y from one l e v e l of o r g a n i z a t i o n to another, w i t h the terms of ( t h e i r ) e x i s t e n c e c o n s t a n t l y changing from s t a t e to s t a t e " (p. 259). The more ( p o l i t i c a l l y ) r a d i c a l c u l t u r a l and economic anthropologist would take t h i s further and say that the laws to which culture i s subject are s o c i a l as well as e c o l o g i c a l (Ingold, 1979), or that the problem i s "to conduct the s t r u c t u r a l analysis 27 of s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s i n such a way t h a t the ' c a u s a l i t y of the s t r u c t u r e s ' upon each other could be analysed' (Godelier, 1978, p. 102). Most recently these i d e a s have begun to be s e t w i t h i n a systems framework. Friedman (1979) was e x p l i c i t i n arguing for the use of " d i s s i p a t i v e structures" and s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory i n modeling s o c i a l phenomena because " s o c i a l systems tend to be of an accumulative nature, stable 'cybernetic' cycles are contained within long-term secular trends leading to c r i s e s , breakdowns and reorganization" (p. 269). Returning to an e c o l o g i c a l anthropologist, Diener (1980) has r e c e n t l y suggested t h a t i n order to understand the l a r g e - s c a l e evolution of c u l t u r a l change, i t i s necessary to concentrate on the " f i e l d " of economic and s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s of society, and on the unstable — for i t i s i n t h i s context that change has occurred i n the panorama of history. From our s t a r t i n anthropology, we have a l r e a d y i n t r o d u c e d two very important i m p l i c i t concepts — t h a t of time, of a h i s t o r y (and a f u t u r e ) , and t h a t of environment ( s p a t i a l extent and c o m p l e x i t y ) . H i s t o r y i s , of course, very important to us — i t s introduction to physical processes i s one of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory's most important c o n t r i b u t i o n s . Here a useful d i s t i n c t i o n can be made between d i f f e r e n t types of history, d i f f e r e n t views of the nature of the flow of society and culture over time. Following Braudel (1969) there i s the hi s t o r y of man i n r e l a t i o n to h i s surroundings, the "longue duree," the form of h i s t o r y with which we are interested here; there i s an intermediate s o c i a l h i s t o r y of groups and groupings which i s the " h i s t o r y " of the a n t h r o p o l o g i s t s , and t h e r e i s the h i s t o r y of events, " l ' h i s t o i r e e v e n e m e n t i e l l e " . (As an a s i d e , t h i s i s the form of h i s t o r y most amenable to the manipulations of catastrophe theory; s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n 28 theory, i n contrast applies to the "longue duree.") For Braudel the past i l l u m i n a t e s the present and h i s t o r y i s an explana-t i o n of the past, so i n a sense, we see the p o s s i b i l i t y of s o c i e t a l s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n as a model of h i s t o r y i n an analogy between the h i s t o r y of a society and the i n t e r n a l h i s t o r y of a s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g system. A d d i t i o n a l l y , Diener (1980) made much of the ro l e of i n s t a b i l i t y i n c u l t u r a l macroevolu-ti o n , while Friedman (1979) emphasized the r o l e of cycles, d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s and transformation i n s o c i e t a l evolution. The evolution and spread of ideas and p r o c e s s e s has been shown to f i t q u i t e w e l l the l o g i s t i c e q u a t i o n — w h i l e d e v i a t i o n s have o f t e n been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i r r e g u l a r l y i n f r e q u e n t events such as wars, s t r i k e s , and economic pa n i c s ( M o n t r o l l , 1978; M a r c h e t t i , 1985) t h a t are sources of i n s t a b i l i t y , o f t e n c y c l i c a l and c e r t a i n l y discontinuous and transformational. Thus, diverse anthropological and h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s on the past suggest the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of elements of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory to s o c i a l evolution. A d d i t i o n a l l y , the wide v a r i e t y of c y c l e s t h a t may be observed i n a d i v e r s i t y of s o c i a l behaviour (Young & Ziman, 1971) p r o v i d e s not only a p a r a l l e l with the prevalence of c y c l i c a l or o s c i l l a t o r y manifestations of se l f - o r g a n i z i n g processes i n physical systems but has proved a major impetus for an important school of s p a t i a l geography, the so- c a l l e d chronogeographic p e r s p e c t i v e (Parkes & T h r i f t , 1980). T h i s i s an i n t e g r a t i o n of time and space and people, ( c f . HHgerstrand, 1971) i n p u r s u i t of the go a l of under-standing the regional patterns of human a c t i v i t y . This l i n k i n g of time and space and i n d i v i d u a l s i n human a f f a i r s i s c r u c i a l to s o c i e t a l s e l f - o r g a n i z a -29 tion. This approach i s i n strong contrast to the standard regional science (e.g., I s a r d , 1975) approaches such as l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s ( p r i m a r i l y space alone), i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s ( l o c a t i o n / r e s o u r c e s / p r o d u c t s alone) or economic base analysis (location-time). One c o n n e c t i o n t h a t has been r e c o g n i z e d by r e g i o n a l s c i e n c e i s t h a t between ecology and economics or, better, between society and environment. Although the c l a s s i c approach to t h i s connection (Isard et al . , 1972) i s the r e s u l t of a p u r e l y l i n e a r , economic s c i e n c e approach (i.e., i n p u t / o u t p u t analysis extended to include e c o l o g i c a l resources) others have taken a more general view of the matter. Seddon (1984) went further i n recognizing the importance of c u l t u r a l and e c o l o g i c a l properties of the environment i n h i s comparisons of primary human ecosystems (hunter-gather, p r e - i n d u s t r i a l a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r i a l a g r i c u l t u r e , p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l agriculture) concentra-t i n g on properties such as impact, change, d i v e r s i t y , v a r i a t i o n , landscape, productivity, energy input, and s t a b i l i t y . A s i m i l a r emphasis may be seen i n S t a t i s t i c s Canada's framework f o r an e n v i r o n m e n t a l s t a t i s t i c a l system (Rapport & Friend, 1979): concern with a c t i v i t i e s — e s p e c i a l l y production and consumption, restructuring, resources, stresses, and responses. Others have i d e n t i f i e d the importance of the r e s o u r c e concept i n an a p p l i e d , or s o c i e t a l , ecology (Norton & Walker, 1982). More recently, the concept of a resource as c e n t r a l to plant and animal populations and communities has been given a t h e o r e t i c a l foundation: A r e s o u r c e i s an e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r t h a t i s d i r e c t l y used by an organism and t h a t may p o t e n t i a l l y i n f l u e n c e i n d i v i d u a l f i t n e s s . Resources . . . e x i s t i n the environment i n a p a r t i c u l a r abundance and d i s t r i b u t i o n a l configuration. (Wiens, 1984) 30 I n t e r e s t i n g l y , Wicken (1984) makes the o p p o s i t e argument by u s i n g a s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g ( a u t o c a t a l y t i c ) view of organismal evolution to emphasize the c r e a t i v e a s p e c t s of e v o l u t i o n and l i b e r a t e the e v o l u t i o n a r y paradigm from the need f o r competition f o r scarce resources. Resources are necessary inputs to both human and animal/plant communities and the resultant i n t e r a c -t i o n has probably been c h r o n i c l e d best i n Cronon's (1983) study of the co l o n i z a t i o n and development of New England. He describes h i s goal as that of l o c a t i n g "a nature which i s within rather than without histor y " (p. 15). The c r u c i a l components of t h i s 'nature history' which he i d e n t i f i e s are the i n t e r n a l and external dynamics of the e c o l o g i c a l environment, and society's economic r e l a t i o n to the land (i.e., perception of commodities, commitment of ecosystems t o the marketplace, l a n d tenure , and la n d use). Cronon's prime achievement i s the e x p l i c i t d e l i n e a t i o n of the i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s between the economic aspects of a society and the evolution of i t s e c o l o g i -c a l environment over time. Human ecology provides a further perspective on s o c i e t a l structures and processes. I t has o r i g i n s i n the study of c i t i e s , and p a r t i c u l a r l y , of urban growth. I t was o r i g i n a l l y concerned w i t h the ecology, the s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n and the s o c i a l psychology of urban l i f e , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t to the i n t e r a c t i o n of the i n d i v i d u a l and the o r g a n i z a t i o n or i n s t i t u t i o n (Wirth, 1938) — e s s e n t i a l l y a geographical human ecology that c u l m i n a t e d i n Hawley's (1950) tome t i t l e d "Human Ecology: A Theory of Community Structure." Human ecology has d i v e r s i f i e d since i t s beginnings — the organizational human eco l o g i s t s have come to the point where they study " p o p u l a t i o n s of o r g a n i z a t i o n s " and i n t e r n a l (e.g., c a p i t a l investment, 31 information constraints, p o l i t i c a l , and h i s t o r i c a l constraints) and external ( b a r r i e r s to change of o r g a n i z a t i o n a c t i v i t y , legitimacy constraints, and constraints of c o l l e c t i v e r a t i o n a l i t y ) p r e s s u r e s t h a t shape o r g a n i z a t i o n s and the i n d i v i d u a l s i n them (Duncan & Schnore, 1959; Hannan & Freeman, 1977; McKelvey, 1982) — e s s e n t i a l l y a s o c i o l o g i c a l human ecology. Another group has concerned i t s e l f w i t h the r e c i p r o c a l e f f e c t s of man on the n a t u r a l environment and of the modified environment on man i n large c i t i e s — high population d e n s i t i e s together with c l i m a t i c and atmospheric changes lead to "enduring e f f e c t s upon human f e e l i n g ' (Fellenberg, 1984, p. 393) and thus on human s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s such as f a m i l y s i z e . The p a t t e r n s and problems created by the i n t e r a c t i o n between man and h i s biophysical environment i s t r e a t e d by Dasmann (1984). Some go even f u r t h e r and make of ecology a science of design f o r human l i f e s t y l e s (Todd & Todd, 1984). A s i m i l a r view of human ecology i s to be found i n Ge i s t ' s (1978) normative e n v i r o n m e n t a l c r i t e r i a (based p r i m a r i l y on e v o l u t i o n a r y and ec o l o g i c a l biology, anthropology, and the health sciences): s o c i a l milieu, n u t r i t i o n , physical exercise, i n t e l l e c t u a l exercise, education, keeping out of d o o r s i n n a t u r a l s u r r o u n d i n g s , and c o n t r o l of the environment. Ultimately, he argues that q u a l i t y of l i f e must measure not "user s a t i s f a c -t i o n but p h y s i c a l , b e h a v i o u r a l and s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s " (p. 423). Rather s i m i l a r ideas are i m p l i c i t i n Paolo Soleri's (1969) conception of " c i t i e s i n the image of man" — " a r c h i t e c t u r e . . . as the p h y s i c a l d e f i n i t i o n of a m u l t i l e v e l , human ecology" (p. 31) — that i s , housing that i s b i o l o g i c a l l y and e c o l o g i c a l l y suited and designed f o r human. 32 Nothwithstanding the unquestionable achievement of human ecology i n t u r n i n g a t t e n t i o n to the ecology of humans, one must be c a r e f u l of the unquestioning a p p l i c a t i o n of e c o l o g i c a l concepts such as carrying capacity, ecosystem s u c c e s s i o n , and s t a b i l i t y to a n a l y s e s of human s o c i e t y (e.g., Odum, 1969), because w h i l e "ecology can i d e n t i f y s i g n i f i c a n t problems b e a r i n g on the b i o l o g i c a l s u r v i v a l of mankind, . . . i t cannot p r o v i d e the [ d i s c i p l i n a r y ] s o c i o l o g i c a l reasons f o r t h e i r e x i s t e n c e " (Cajka, 1980, p. 133). At the same time, Hawley (1973) d e s c r i b e s human ecology as a synthetic s o c i a l science which, while s t a r t i n g with e c o l o g i c a l s i m i l a r i t i e s (between i n d i v i d u a l s , groups, organizations) cannot help converging on, and even becoming synonymous with, s o c i a l s c i e n c e . What i s needed more i s a melding or convergence of the ideas of bio-ecology and human ecology. Another s t r a n d i n our web i s the i d e a of a " s o c i a l ecology" as s o c i a l l e a r n i n g t h a t o c c u r s at both the l e v e l of the i n d i v i d u a l and the l e v e l of the group. Such a conception implies c r u c i a l r o l e s i n society f o r organiza-t i o n , h i s t o r y , a c t i o n , i n f o r m a t i o n , and i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y research (Dunn, 1971). T h i s i s a dynamic, e v o l u t i o n a r y , model of s o c i e t a l change t h a t i s r e a d i l y i n t e r p r e t a b l e i n terms of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory and suggests further that we turn to sociology to inform our perspective on the structure and processes of society. C a r n e i r o ' s (1970) theory of the o r i g i n of the s t a t e i n the f a c t o r s of resource concentration and s o c i a l c i r c u m s p e c t i o n which " i n t e n s i f y war and ( r e d i r e c t ) i t toward the t a k i n g of l a n d " (p. 737) and Flannery's (1972) s i m i l a r theory of the e v o l u t i o n of c i v i l i z a t i o n which bears s t r i k i n g p a r a l l e l s with ideas from s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory are c l a s s i c examples of 33 theories of the evolution of s o c i e t a l structure as a r e s u l t of the i n t e r a c -t i o n of e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l f a c t o r s . (For example, "Enough c e n t r a l i z a t i o n promotion and l i n e a r i z a t i o n may move the state toward hyper-coherence and i n s t a b i l i t y . . . hypercoherence can l e a d to c o l l a p s e and devolution" [p. 423]). Carneiro (1982) has given s e v e r a l examples ranging from the food supply of a N e o l i t h i c v i l l a g e to the c r a s h of 1929 of l a r g e perturbations i n a society that resulted i n a r e e q u i l i b r a t i o n ; a change i n the q u a l i t a t i v e structure of the society. That the evolution of s o c i e t i e s possesses a structure i s i m p l i c i t i n Braudel's notion of the longue duree; that such structure e x i s t s has been abundantly i l l u s t r a t e d by Braudel's h i s t o r i e s of the Mediterranean. S t r u c t u r a l sociology sees the explanation of t h i s structure or pattern as a p a r t i c u l a r conception of c a u s a l i t y as manifold, sequential, and cumulative (Abrams, 1982). A d d i t i o n a l l y , s t r u c t u r a l i s m i d e n t i f i e s the importance of d i f f e r e n c e s of time, of the d i s t i n c t i o n between s t r u c t u r e and system i n s t u d y i n g the s o c i a l t o t a l i t y and of t r a n s c e n d i n g s i m p l e s u b j e c t / o b j e c t d u a l i s m (Giddens, 1979). A d d i t i o n a l l y , i n i t s emphasis on time and space differences s t r u c t u r a l sociology has important t i e s to chronogeography. In p a r t i c u l a r i t emphasizes s o c i a l change as uneven development within s o c i a l systems, or as c r i t i c a l phases of major i n s t i t u t i o n a l , s o c i e t a l change, and a ' l e a p f r o g ' i d e a of change (Giddens, 1979). S t r u c t u r a l s o c i o l o g y c l e a r l y presents a view of s o c i e t a l change that r e i n f o r c e s our f a i t h i n the a p p l i c a -b i l i t y of self-organization. S t r u c t u r a l sociology, too, recognizes aspects of s o c i e t i e s t h a t w i l l be i m p o r t a n t to a view of s o c i e t y as a s e l f -34 organizing system. We have so f a r been mainly concerned with the society l e v e l , l e t us now turn more e x p l i c i t l y to communities — s o c i e t a l subsets — the theory of whose s o c i a l and economic development may be seen as r e f l e c t i n g many of the themes of the f i r s t part of t h i s chapter i n the r e l a t i v e l y simple, concrete context of the i n d i v i d u a l and the community and i t s r e l a t i v e l y r e s t r i c t e d spatio-temporal context. What i s a community? For our purposes we can c o n s i d e r i t "a s e t of i n s t i t u t i o n s comprising a t o t a l way of l i f e " (Martindale, 1964, p. 71). The community a r i s e s i n order to s o l v e problems of m a s t e r i n g the n a t u r a l environment, the need f o r s o c i a l i z a t i o n , and the need f o r s o c i a l c o n t r o l . I t a c h i e v e s these g o a l s through s t a b i l i z a t i o n , consistency and closure of i n s t i t u t i o n s (Martindale, 1964). This d e f i n i t i o n i s of course f u n c t i o n a l i s t giving r i s e l a t e r to the concept of the "competent" or successful community which was seen as e n t a i l i n g commitment, self- o t h e r awareness, a r t i c u l a t e -ness, communications, c o n f l i c t c o n t r o l , p a r t i c i p a t i o n , and mechanisms to manage i n t r a - and inter-community i n t e r a c t i o n s ( C o t t r e l l , 1976). These concepts were f u r t h e r developed i n t o those of s o c i a l v i t a l i t y , economic  v i a b i l i t y , and p o l i t i c a l e f f i c a c y ( B l i s h e n et a l . , 1979) w i t h the s t i l l l a t e r addition of the idea of formal and informal sectors of each of these dimensions of community and the idea of i n t e g r a t i o n of a l l dimensions at the l e v e l of both the i n d i v i d u a l and the community (Mathews, 1983). Given t h e o r e t i c a l d e f i n i t i o n s of community competence, one i s i n e v i t a -b l y concerned w i t h i t s assessment i n r e a l l i f e . B l i s h e n et a l . (1979) present a l i s t of i n d i c a t o r s for each of the three dimensions. For economic 35 t i o n , and s i z e ; f o r s o c i a l v i t a l i t y — h e a l t h , support programs, s o c i a l p a t h o l o g i e s , communication, education, and l e i s u r e ; and f o r p o l i t i c a l e f f i c a c y — p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t i e s , v o l u n t a r y p o l i t i c a l organizations. Heesch (1979) noted s i m i l a r requirements under the heading of "community f a c i l i t i e s and s e r v i c e s " as w e l l as o b s e r v i n g the need f o r attention to formal and informal sectors. Others have distinguished areas of concern f o r m o n i t o r i n g , e.g., f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n , i n t e r m e d i a t e products (e.g., s o c i a l s e r v i c e s ) , o b j e c t i v e and subjective welfare i n d i c a -tors (House, 1981) and economic/demographic disaggregators f or each area of concern (OECD, 1982). The strong i n t e r a c t i o n s between economic and s o c i a l a s p e c t s of a community have been made c l e a r by v a r i o u s s c h o l a r s i n s o c i o -economic impact assessment (Davis & Webster, 1981; L e i s t r i t z & Chase, 1982). A more g e n e r a l approach i s to c o n s i d e r the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of s o c i e t i e s i n terms of c o m p a t i b i l i t y between components and c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h the external environment (Hawrylyshyn, 1980). Community e v o l u t i o n i s not the same as community development — development presupposes to most of us the choice of a better d i r e c t i o n , an improvement as a r e s u l t of development i n the q u a l i t y of l i f e of the community's inhabitants. Evolution of a community may, or may not, include "development" of the community. Nonetheless, insofar as most communities wish some form of development, and i t i s i n the context of development that most community s t u d i e s are undertaken, we s h a l l examinine some of the relevant community development l i t e r a t u r e . The term economic development has i t s o r i g i n s i n Marx's work (Arndt, 36 1981) and was i n t r o d u c e d to orthodox economists p r i m a r i l y by Schumpeter (1961/26). For much of t h i s century, economic development has been synony-mous with growth of labour force and production — GNP i n other words (e.g., Solow, 1956; H a l l , 1983). In the l a s t few decades t h e r e has been a movement to separate the ideas of economic growth (purely quantitative) and economic development ( q u a l i t a t i v e as w e l l as quantitative) and to put the need f o r economic development i n a g l o b a l , p o l i t i c a l , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n t e x t (Dadzie, 1980). At the same time as t h e r e was a c a l l f o r a "new i n t e r n a t i o n a l economic order" i n the context of economic development, there has been a c t i v i t y at the o p p o s i t e pole — economic development at a community l e v e l , whether i n an orthodox, cen t r a l i z e d , corporate form (e.g., Brodhead et a l . , 1981) or a more d e c e n t r a l i z e d , l o c a l , unorthodox form (e.g., Nugent & Yotopoulos, 1979). Economic growth i n a r e g i o n i m p l i e s growth i n p r o d u c t i o n , growth i n flows into and out of the region. Economic growth, per se, im p l i e s nothing about the magnitude of the tangible or intangible benefits which may or may not accrue to the m a j o r i t y of the region's i n h a b i t a n t s as a r e s u l t of growth. Economic development, however, implies tangible benefits f or the i n h a b i t a n t s of the r e g i o n i n which i t occurs, e.g. i n c r e a s e d employment, m u l t i p l i e r e f f e c t s , a wider tax base f o r r e g i o n a l government. Community development implies, i n addition, more in t a n g i b l e s o c i a l benefits such as development of community i d e n t i t y , s o c i a l services or r e c r e a t i o n a l opportu-n i t i e s . Development i n t h i s sense means "the transformation upward of the en t i r e s o c i a l system" (Myrdal, 1975). Development i s a complex process requiring basic s t r u c t u r a l changes i n 37 the d i s t r i b u t i o n of s o c i e t a l goods. T h i s n o t i o n reaches an extreme i n b i o r e g i o n a l theory i n which the s o c i a l , e c o l o g i c a l , and s p i r i t u a l are conjoined to produce a new form of economic development (Dodge, 1981; Sale, 1985). Development i n v o l v e s s o c i a l and economic, s p a t i a l and temporal, l o c a l and national actions; as w e l l as techniques f o r popular p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( f o r development as a s o c i o l o g i c a l process, see Western, 1977). I t i s a c o n t i n u i n g p r o c e s s aimed at meeting development needs (Durston, 1972). Self-organization has been r e f l e c t e d i n both the theory and pra c t i c e of community development — e p i t o m i z e d by Perroux's (1983) d e f i n i t i o n of community development as evolutionary, active, c o n s i s t i n g of linked growth of sectors i n i r r e v e r s i b l e time, together with resultant s t r u c t u r a l changes or s h i f t s ; or by Jane Jacobs' view of economic development as "improvisa-t i o n , " as import replacement by c i t y economies " t h a t sparks oth e r c i t i e s " and then t r a d i n g networks, which a l l have a c a t a l y t i c e f f e c t i n i n d u c i n g further development further a f i e l d . I t i s more d i f f i c u l t to define i n d i c a t o r s of development than to choose i n d i c a t o r s of community competence. T h i s has been r e c o g n i z e d f o r almost t h i r t y years ( P e r l o f f , 1956) and stems from the need to c o n s i d e r not only the present state of things (much the same as f o r community competence) but also the p o t e n t i a l i t i e s f o r development i n the future. If development has i t s o r i g i n s i n economics and the ideology of growth, economists have also been the source of some of the more innovative notions concerning economic development: Georgescu-Roegen's (1971) l i n k i n g of the concepts of entropy and economy led to one of the f i r s t formal suggestions 38 of some " l i m i t s to growth"; then Daly's (1973, 1977) s u g g e s t i o n of the steady-state, sustainable, l a r g e l y closed ( i n terms of resources) economy as a necessary goal of society. The authors and d i s c i p l i n e s c i t e d above a l l contribute to the postula-t i o n of s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g processes i n human systems i n general and communi-t i e s i n p a r t i c u l a r . From anthropology, we have the r e c o g n i t i o n of human systems as open, never i n a state of equilibrium, as i n v o l v i n g e c o l o g i c a l , economic and s o c i a l components, and including cycles of " c r i s e s , breakdowns, and r e o r g a n i z a t i o n " . The Annales h i s t o r i a n s c o n t r i b u t e r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t there i s both a (microscopic) h i s t o r y of events and a (macroscopic) h i s t o r y of system structures. From geography and ecology we have the importance of ( e c o l o g i c a l ) r e s o u r c e s and p o p u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s i n c r e a t i n g p a t t e r n s of a c t i v i t i e s and behaviour i n time and space; Cronon, e s p e c i a l l y , l i n k s the economic and e c o l o g i c a l components of the human system. Human ecology takes us further, extending e c o l o g i c a l methods to the s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of human systems on the one hand, while elaborating the impacts of the e c o l o g i -c a l environment on the s o c i a l component of human l i f e on the other. The s o c i o l o g i c a l views presented return to the dynamic, evolutionary nature of human systems and the existence of catastrophes, d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s , and r e - e q u i l i b r a t i o n s i n human s o c i e t i e s throughout h i s t o r y . From the expe r i e n c e of community development we l e a r n of the s y n t h e s i s of s o c i a l v i t a l i t y , economic v i a b i l i t y , and p o l i t i c a l e f f i c a c y i n t o community, and t h e i r i n d i c a t o r s . Economics and economic development further elaborate the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the e c o l o g i c a l , economic and s o c i a l a s p e c t s of development and, e s p e c i a l l y , the need to consider these aspects as defining 39 a system. T h i s chapter has aimed to develop our understanding of the s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a s p e c t s of, and the i n t e r c o n n e c t e d n e s s of, the s o c i a l , e c o l o g i c a l , and economic components of human systems. The next chapter w i l l use t h i s understanding to develop a conceptual model of the evolution of one p a r t i c u l a r type of human system — the community. I t i s not a working model t h a t "runs"; i t i s a c o n c e p t u a l , w r i t t e n d e s c r i p t i o n of a s t r u c t u r e and process that s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n could follow i n a community. I t i s intended as an a i d to c o g n i t i v e understanding of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n community systems. 40 CHAPTER 4 - A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF COMMUNITY EVOLUTION "Seek s i m p l i c i t y , but d i s t r u s t i t . " - A l f r e d North Whitehead In previous chapters, we have examined P r i g o g i n i a n s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory and a vari e t y of d i s c i p l i n a r y views of human systems which support the view that s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n occurs i n human systems. The goal, here, i s to present a c o n c e p t u a l model or s c e n a r i o of community e v o l u t i o n t h a t e x p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e s s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n processes. I t i s not c l a i m e d t h a t s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n any p a r t i c u l a r community or human system proceeds i n the manner here d e s c r i b e d . Rather, the model i s i n t e n d e d as an h e u r i s t i c device to aid our understanding of se l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n human systems. It i s postulated that the human system the earth has become possesses t h r e e main subsystems — the e c o l o g i c a l , the economic, and the s o c i a l subsystems. D i s t i n c t s o c i e t i e s (e.g., the North American) form other, horizontal, subsystems. A community, i n turn, i s a subsystem of a society. A community i s d e f i n e d i n a r e l a t i v e l y l o c a l i z e d p l a c e and e v o l v e s i r r e v e r s i b l y — t h a t i s , h i s t o r y does not repeat i t s e l f , t h e r e i s no i n e v i t a b l e end s t a t e . There i s a boundary t h a t s e p a r a t e s i t from i t s environment. The forces that shape the community derive from properties of i t s e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l components. At the l e v e l of a community we speak of components r a t h e r than subsystems because at t h i s l e v e l one i s not d e a l i n g w i t h e n t i r e subsystems but on l y p a r t s of the eco l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l subsystems of the human system. This i s the core of our model, and formalizes ideas expressed by Martindale (1964), 41 Matthews (1983), Blishen et a l . (1979), and Perroux (1983). The model consists of eight s t r u c t u r a l variables which represent the ec o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l components of community structure, and four process variables which attempt to characterize the state of the process of community evolution. Each of these variables i n e v i t a b l y subsumes within i t many s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a c t u a l c o m m u n i t i e s ; t h e y a r e i d e a l i z a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the many elements t h a t make up each component. T h e r e f o r e , I a l s o speak of i n d i c a t o r s and g i v e a few examples for each variable, which are actual, observable community c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s subsumed by the variable. There i s no purely objective way to choose eight v a r i a b l e s by which to represent community structure. I have made my choice on the basis of what I p e r c e i v e d to be the common themes among the authors c i t e d i n the l a s t c h a pter ( e s p e c i a l l y B l i s h e n , et a l . , 1979; C o t t r e l l , 1976; Cronon, 1983; G e i s t , 1978; Hannan & Freeman, 1977; M a r t i n d a l e , 1964; Matthews, 1983; Rapport & F r i e n d , 1979; Wiens, 1984) as w e l l as on the b a s i s of a need to i n c l u d e i n the model both macroscopic and m i c r o s c o p i c , e x t e n s i v e and i n t e n s i v e v a r i a b l e s . T h i s because the go a l of the model i s not to r e d u c t i o n i s t i c a l l y describe a community but to construct a dynamic, s e l f -organizing model. Eight s t r u c t u r a l variables, explained further below and i n F i g u r e 4> were chosen: landscape ( I s ) , l a n d tenure ( I t ) , l a n d use ( l u ) , r e s o u r c e s ( r e ) , p r o d u c t i o n ( p r ) , consumption (co), h i s t o r i c a l i n p u t s ( h i ) , and s o c i a l i n p u t s ( s i ) . The v a r i a b l e names do subsume much. Rather than c o i n a neologism, common terms have been chosen and s p e c i f i c d e f i n i t i o n s given below and i n the Glossary (Appendix I ) . 42 Landscape i s an h o l i s t i c v a r i a b l e that represents the o v e r a l l i n t e g r i t y of the community's e c o l o g i c a l component as i n d i c a t e d by, f o r example, e c o l o g i c a l d i v e r s i t y and c o m p l e x i t y , n a t u r a l n e s s , or r e s i l i e n c e . Land tenure corresponds to the system of determining land ownership and use with in d i c a t o r s such as the h i e r a r c h i c a l l e v e l at which the system operates and the r e l a t i v e r o l e of governments, organizations, or i n d i v i d u a l s . Land use i s the s i t e - s p e c i f i c use of l a n d and i t s r e s o u r c e s ; i n d i c a t o r s i n c l u d i n g the i n t e n s i t y of bu i l d i n g or grazing on the s i t e , the number of wells, the amount of r e s o u r c e s e x t r a c t e d from the s i t e . Resources r e f e r s to the q u a n t i t y of r e s o u r c e s on a s i t e and t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h i n i t , as indicated by, f o r example, the absolute amount of the resource, i t s quality, and the ease of extracting i t . Consumption r e f e r s to the u s i n g up of renewable and non-renewable r e s o u r c e s ; w i t h s i m p l e i n d i c a t o r s such as the q u a n t i t y used (degraded). Production r e f e r s to the r e s u l t s of resource extraction and processing and the economist's consumption — g e n e r a t i o n of u s e f u l products f o r l a t e r consumption and non-useful wastes; i n d i c a t o r s such as the amount and types of products, the r e l a t i o n between useful and waste products. S o c i a l inputs are the e f f e c t s of the community s o c i a l structure on the s o c i a l , e c o l o g i c a l , and economic components of the community, indicated by, for example, number of c o n f l i c t s w i t h i n the community, the number and s t a b i l i t y of s o c i a l groupings, the s t a b i l i t y and c o h e s i v e n e s s of community membership. And f i n a l l y , h i s t o r i c a l inputs are the impacts of past s o c i a l structure i n the form of myth, r i t u a l , and t r a d i t i o n , w i t h i n d i c a t o r s i n c l u d i n g the 43 importance of myth and h i s t o r y i n community l i f e , the r e l a t i v e s t r i c t n e s s of t r a d i t i o n , and s o c i a l rules. Landscape and r e s o u r c e s r e p r e s e n t the e c o l o g i c a l component of the community; consumption, p r o d u c t i o n and l a n d use the economic, and land tenure, s o c i a l i n p u t s and h i s t o r i c a l i n p u t s the s o c i a l components of a community. The extensive v a r i a b l e s are emergent properties of the whole system, do not take on s p e c i f i c v a l u e s at each p o i n t i n the system; the i n t e n s i v e variables are s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the system i t s e l f , are defined at each point i n the system. The macroscopic v a r i a b l e s serve to characterize the s t a t e of the e n t i r e system; the m i c r o s c o p i c v a r i a b l e s are meant to represent the i n t e r n a l structures that determine change i n the macroscopic variables. Extensive/intensive r e f e r s to the way i n which the variables may be defined; macroscopic/microscopic r e f e r s to the scale at which they are s i g n i f i c a n t . M i c r o s c o p i c v a r i a b l e s are an i n t e r m e d i a t e step between macroscopic determinism and random "emergent" properties (Klee, 1984). Land tenure and landscape are macroscopic because they r e f e r to c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the system that are manifested at the l e v e l of the entire system; s i m i l a r l y r e s o u r c e s and l a n d use are used to d e s c r i b e the e n t i r e system. The l a t t e r are i n t e n s i v e , however, as they are d e f i n e d a t each point i n the system, while the former are not. H i s t o r i c a l inputs and s o c i a l i n p u t s are e x t e n s i v e , not r e a d i l y d e f i n a b l e at each p o i n t i n the system, w h i l e consumption and p r o d u c t i o n , i n t e n s i v e v a r i a b l e s , are so d e f i n a b l e . These four v a r i a b l e s are microscopic because 1) they are representative of the i n t e r n a l structure of the system rather than i t s external, macroscopic 44 form, and 2) they are major determinants of large-scale c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as l a n d tenure, landscape, r e s o u r c e s , and l a n d use. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 4 has been u s e f u l to the author i n choosing and defining the variables. I t i s represented, i m p l i c i t l y , i n the model i t s e l f by the placing and r e l a t i o n s h i p s of the variables. The eight s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s trace t h e i r o r i g i n s to the main themes present i n the l i t e r a t u r e i n d i s c i p l i n e s from ecology to planning to hi s t o r y anthropology. The four process variables, to which we now turn, have t h e i r o r i g i n s i n the main themes of the t h e o r i s t s presented i n the l a s t chapter. These v a r i a b l e s serve to r e l a t e (as w i l l be shown below) the s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s and to r e p r e s e n t some c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i m p o r t a n t i n a s e l f -o r g a n i z i n g c o n c e p t i o n of communities. The d e c i s i o n on how the v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e i s the author's, based on h i s knowledge of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory, the materials presented i n the l a s t chapter, and more conventional sources such as mainstream economics and p o l i t i c a l science. From Rappaport to Giddens to Jacobs, we have read of the importance of e v o l u t i o n , a d a p t a t i o n , and change i n c u l t u r e s and s o c i e t i e s . Others have reported on the s h i f t away from the dominance of the concept of equilibrium (K. Jacobs, 1984) of which Lorenz' (1963) paper on the r o l e of i n s t a b i l i t y and n o n - e q u i l i b r i u m i n m e t e o r o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s was one of the e a r l i e s t examples i n the n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s . Moreover, J. Jacobs (1984) suggested society may fear c u l t u r a l or economic stagnation as a r e s u l t of s t r u c t u r a l i n f l e x i b i l i t y . T h i s view of s o c i a l e v o l u t i o n i s the b a s i s of the four process variables postulated here. EXTENSIVE VARIABLES INTENSIVE VARIABLES MACROSCOPIC - land tenure ( I t ) - resources (re) the system of determining land ownership and land. - landscape (Is) ecosystem i n t e g r i t y : e c o l o g i c a l dynamics, d i v e r s i t y , naturalness, connectedness, r e s i l i e n c e . abundance and d i s -t r i b u t i o n . - land use ( l u ) use of land and i t s resources on a s i t e -s p e c i f i c basis. MICROSCOPIC - h i s t o r i c a l inputs consumption (co) the legacy of past s o c i a l structure: information and r i t u a l , r a t i o n a l i t y , l e g i t i m a t i o n , t r a d i t i o n . - s o c i a l inputs ( s i ) use and harvest of renewable and non-renewable resources. - production (pr) s o c i a l structure: s o c i a l m ilieu, s o c i a l i z a t i o n , s t a b i l i z a t i o n , c o n s i s t -ency, closure, c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n . generation of useful products and non-useful wastes and energy on a s i t e -s p e c i f i c basis. Figure 4 - The Conceptual Model's S t r u c t u r a l Variables: Indicators and C l a s s i f i c a t i o n 46 F i r s t "mass," m, a measure of community s t r u c t u r a l i n e r t i a or s t a g n a t i o n , d e f i n e d as s t r u c t u r a l r i g i d i t y p l u s s o c i a l c o n f o r m i t y . In a community mass or i n e r t i a measures the resistance of community i n s t i t u t i o n s , administrative structures, and citi z e n ' s groups to change. This w i l l be a function not only of organizational structure but also of the a t t i t u d e s of those within them. I t w i l l be a r e l a t i v e measure and best evaluated v i a an h i s t o r i c a l study of s t r u c t u r a l change i n the community. In a given community one might look at the rate of acceptance and date of introduction of such i n n o v a t i o n s as e l e c t r i c i t y , telephone, the automobile, r a d i o and t e l e v i s i o n ; or at the e x i s t e n c e and/or change i n time of the community's governing bodies; or at the d i v e r s i t y and modernity of the forms of entertainment e x i s t i n g and popular i n the community. "Energy," E, r e p r e s e n t s a d a p t a b i l i t y and i n n o v a t i v e n e s s . I t can be d e f i n e d as t h e e x t e n t of l e a r n i n g ( n e g a t i v e feedback) r e l a t i v e to o p p o r t u n i t y , p l u s the r a t e of i n n o v a t i o n r e l a t i v e to other s i m i l a r communities. The energy or a d a p t a b i l i t y of a community i s the opposite of mass. I t measures the community's a b i l i t y to generate i n n o v a t i o n and to learn from and a n t i c i p a t e change. This w i l l be a function of the education and e x p e r i e n c e of community members and more p a r t i c u l a r l y of t h e i r w i l l i n g n e s s to accept new i d e a s and experiment w i t h d i f f e r e n t ways of o r g a n i z i n g t h e i r community and u s i n g i t s r e s o u r c e s . E i s a b i l i t y to respond, m i s r e s i s t a n c e to change. The r e l a t i o n between E and m i s u n l i k e l y to be constant, although probably b a s i c a l l y inverse, as change w i l l be discontinuous due to p a r t i c u l a r stresses and responses. 47 For example, a small r u r a l community that f i n d s i t s e l f being drawn into an urban a g g l o m e r a t i o n w i l l u s u a l l y i n i t i a l l y r e s i s t the changes t h i s implies (high m). In time, as pressures f o r a s s i m i l a t i o n increase, so too w i l l energy i n the form of proposals f o r a s s i m i l a t i o n , u n t i l a b i f u r c a t i o n occurs with the i n e v i t a b l e a s s i m i l a t i o n being accepted. At t h i s point, mass i s i n c r e a s e d c o n s i d e r a b l y and energy decreased as the s t r i c t u r e s of m e t r o p o l i t a n l i v i n g a re accepted and many a l t e r n a t i v e s to u r b a n i z e f o r e c l o s e d . Once the community i s f u l l y i n t e g r a t e d i n t o the c i t y , energy may be increased and mass decreased. Between b i f u r c a t i o n s , mass, and energy may move together; over the long-term, i n c l u d i n g b i f u r c a t i o n s , they w i l l not. These two v a r i a b l e s are c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to a t h i r d , t e n s i o n , T, (somewhat akin to "temperature" i n a physical system). Tension represents "goodness of f i t " ; i t i s a present-oriented s t r u c t u r a l concept, defined as the appropriateness of community s t r u c t u r e to g i v e n e x t e r n a l c o n s t r a i n t s ( p r e s s u r e s ) . The worse the goodness of f i t , the h i g h e r the t e n s i o n . Community tension r e f l e c t s i n c o m p a t i b i l i t i e s between the community and i t s environment (i.e., other communities and the broader s o c i e t y ) t h a t are r e f l e c t e d i n t e r n a l l y as a f u n c t i o n of community d i s o r d e r or entropy. T e n s i o n may be assessed by an a n a l y s i s of the d i f f e r e n c e s between the community and i t s environment i n terms of the s t r u c t u r a l variables land use, lan d tenure, p r o d u c t i o n , consumption, and s o c i a l i n p u t s (by, f o r example, the i n d i c a t o r s of these v a r i a b l e s l i s t e d above); together with, of course, an assessment of entropy as d e s c r i b e d i n the next paragraph. Q u a l i t a t i v e and quantitative differences i n these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of s u f f i c i e n t degree 48 and c e r t a i n type (i.e., incompatible differences) w i l l r e s u l t i n tension. As an i l l u s t r a t i o n consider a community with a low i n t e n s i t y of land use, e q u i t a b l e l a n d tenure system, low and balanced consumption and p r o d u c t i o n , and s t a b l e and a d a p t i v e s o c i a l i n p u t s , and r e s u l t i n g low entropy. T e n s i o n c o u l d be expected to r e s u l t i f t h i s s e l f - c o n t a i n e d community were to f i n d i t s e l f surrounded by a l a r g e r s o c i e t y , or i n the "shadow" of a major urban a g g l o m e r a t i o n w i t h a h i g h l a n d use i n t e n s i t y , c e n t r a l i z e d and i n e q u i t a b l e l a n d tenure system, h i g h and unbalanced consumption and production, and r e s u l t i n g high entropy. And f i n a l l y , we must c o n s i d e r community entropy, S, a measure of disorder. I t can be considered a r e s u l t of the i n e f f i c i e n t or i n e f f e c t i v e use of the system's resources, and defined as deviation from that "ordered" s t r u c t u r a l s t a t e necessary to meet the needs and g o a l s of the system or community. S o c i a l disorder or entropy i s a r e s u l t of i n e f f i c i e n c i e s i n the community such that inadequacies i n the use and d i s t r i b u t i o n of resources r e s u l t , which i n t u r n cause the needs of some members of the community to not be met. I n e f f i c i e n c y and inadequacy are simply defined r e l a t i v e to the needs and goals of the community. These i n d i v i d u a l i n e f f i c i e n c i e s lead to community-wide i n e f f i c i e n c i e s which are r e f l e c t e d i n the output and structure of the community as a whole — e.g., low production, innovation, and/or learning i n comparison to other communities. The i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r n a l i n e f f i c i e n c i e s w i l l be r e f l e c t e d i n the incidence of s o c i a l pathologies, or the proportions of the populations e x i s t i n g below some poverty l i n e etc. For a l l of the proc e s s v a r i a b l e s the a c t u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c or 49 phenomenon that i s assessed w i l l depend not only on the p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n but also on whether or not the s i t u a t i o n i s pre- or post-bifurcation, i.e., before or a f t e r a perceived d i s c o n t i n u i t y i n the community's evolution. For example, before the Stock Market crash of 1929 one might have measured T by the great demands placed on the f i s c a l structure of the economy by so many having great (paper) wealth; a f t e r the c r a s h t e n s i o n would b e t t e r be measured by the g r e a t demands p l a c e d on the system by so many w i t h no wealth, and a very few whose wealth survived. Tension and entropy are c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the e v o l u t i o n a r y process, mass and energy are c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the system that d i r e c t l y influence the process. Tension and entropy are l i k e l y to be d i r e c t l y proportional but not d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d , as were mass and energy i n v e r s e l y . "Tension" and "entropy" should tend to r e i n f o r c e each other, w i t h "energy" the main countervailing force (remember free energy = i n t e r n a l energy minus absolute temperature times entropy from Chapter 2). Tension i s defined by reference to the system and i t s environment, entropy i s purely i n t e r n a l to the system. S and E can a l s o be r e l a t e d through the n o t i o n of system e q u i l i b r i u m and nonequilibrium. Were the community system at e q u i l i b r i u m i t s structure would be s t a t i c , t h e r e would be n e i t h e r change, nor progress, nor development, and the change i n energy and entropy would both equal zero while mass might be high or low and tension low — s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n would not occur. A community system would be at equilibrium i f i t was not subject to tension as a r e s u l t of i n t e r n a l disorder generated by differences between i t and the community's environment. The community would be f u l l y integrated e c o n o m i c a l l y , s o c i a l l y , and e c o l o g i c a l l y w i t h i t s s o c i e t a l environment. 50 C l e a r l y , t h i s i s an exceedingly u n l i k e l y event. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , the system may be i n a n o n e q u i l i b r i u m s t a t e ( f o r a l l p r a c t i c a l purposes the only p o s s i b i l i t y ) i n which the s t r u c t u r e i s dynamic, changing, " e v o l u t i o n " i s occurring, the changes i n entropy and energy are not equal (one i s greater than the other) and mass and tension (within s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n cycles) w i l l l i k e l y be decreased as a r e s u l t of the system's evolution. If the change i n entropy and energy were equal, but not equal to zero, then the system would be i n t e r n a l l y s t a b l e but moving towards a b i f u r c a t i o n as a whole. The system i s , by d e f i n i t i o n , far-from-equilibrium with i t s environment. S e l f -organization would not occur i n an equilibrium system. Assuming that each of the process variables could increase, decrease, or remain the same, there are 81 possible combinations. That i s too many to examine i n d i v i d u a l l y . We w i l l , however, use h y p o t h e t i c a l examples to i l l u s t r a t e three cases — those where change i s a r e s u l t , respectively, of high entropy, high tension, and high energy — to demonstrate r e l a t i o n s h i p s and the f a c t that i n any given case c e r t a i n variables may be important and others not. C o n s i d e r a community c h a r a c t e r i z e d by high entropy — poor s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , l a c k of c o h e s i v e n e s s , d i s s a t i s f i e d community members — perhaps a town where the economic base has been eroded or l o s t . I t w i l l l i k e l y have low energy as a r e s u l t of poor organization to take advantage of opportunities, and a l o s s of sources of new ideas or opportunities to other communities. Mass i n the community w i l l l i k e l y be low — everyone recognizing the need f o r change. Tension may or may not be high. I f i t i s 51 high, as a r e s u l t of obvious contrasts with the environment or perhaps other outside pressures (e.g., to close down the town), the community may " s e l f -o r g a n i z e " i t s way to lower entropy and h i g h e r energy. I f t e n s i o n i s low, the community may stay trapped i n disorder and decline. A community t y p i f i e d by h i g h t e n s i o n would be one, such as t h a t d i s c u s s e d above under the d e f i n i t i o n of energy, t h a t f i n d s i t s e l f i ncreasingly i n an urban shadow. Tension, energy, and mass are l i k e l y a l l to be high, while entropy i s low; the f i r s t two as a r e s u l t of the c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n , the t h i r d i s t y p i c a l of most r u r a l communities. Af t e r the s e l f -organization that changes the community from being r u r a l to suburban, i t s energy and tension w i l l decline as i t i s a s s i m i l a t e d i n t o the metropolitan r e g i o n and the c o n f l i c t and t e n s i o n s ease, i t s i n h a b i t a n t s homogenized; while mass and entropy w i l l probably increase. A h i g h energy community might be one such as S i l i c o n V a l l e y where change i s the order of the day, c r e a t i v i t y and i d e a s the d e f i n i t i o n of m e r i t . In t h i s example, community entropy ( i n c o n t r a s t to c o r p o r a t e entropy) would be high as a r e s u l t of the i n s t a b i l i t y of community composition. Mass would be low as the d i v e r s i t y of ideas negates any f i x i t y with which they are held. Tension i s high both because of the differences between t h i s community and those around i t and because of the i n h e r e n t i n s t a b i l i t y of the h i g h - t e c h i n d u s t r y and those i n i t (when compared to almost any other). Depending on the a b i l i t y of the outside world to support i t , t h i s community may p e r s i s t or i t may self-organize i n t o a more normal one of lower entropy, tension and energy, and high mass. T h r o u g h o u t t h e s e e x a m p l e s one s h o u l d b e a r i n mind t h a t t h e 52 (microscopic) patterns of change i n the v a r i a b l e s between b i f u r c a t i o n s i s not the same as the (macroscopic) p a t t e r n over s e v e r a l b i f u r c a t i o n s . The l a t t e r i s the major, s t r u c t u r a l e f f e c t of sel f - o r g a n i z a t i o n . For example, tension and entropy may we l l decrease immediately f o l l o w i n g a b i f u r c a t i o n , but over time and s e v e r a l b i f u r c a t i o n s , both are l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e . (See also p. 54 and R i f k i n , 1980, p. 241.) Next we s h a l l d e s c r i b e the model i n more d e t a i l — i n p a r t i c u l a r the i n t e r a c t i o n s between the v a r i a b l e s paying s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n to the occurrence of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g systems, i.e., openness, nonlinearity, f a r - f r o m - e q u i l i b r i u m , f l u c t u a t i o n s , and p e r i o d i c i n s t a b i l i t y . We w i l l begin, as s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n begins, w i t h the d i s t i n c t i o n between the system and i t s environment and the flows bet ween the two. These flows r e f l e c t the f a c t that the system i s open and f a r - f rom-equilibrium with i t s environment. In the community system these flows w i l l c o n s i s t of raw resources, produced goods and wastes, and information i n the form of ideas, knowledge, and people. Evolutionary biology has come to recognize that the units of evolution "both make and are made by t h e i r environment" (Lewontin, 1983). Communities e v o l v e s i m i l a r l y . These f l o w s w i l l have t h e i r main impacts i n the entropy, energy, and t e n s i o n v a r i a b l e s . Mass, being a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the system d e t e r m i n i n g the process, i s not a f f e c t e d d i r e c t l y by transboundary f l o w s . The present community s t r u c t u r e w i l l r e f l e c t h i s t o r i c a l i n p u t s and, e s p e c i a l l y , past i n t e r a c t i o n s between the community and i t s environment. Pressure f o r change w i l l be the r e s u l t of 53 demands f o r , f o r example, r e s o u r c e s , p r o d u c t i o n , changes i n s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e , from the community's i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l environment. The community's a b i l i t y to respond w i l l f i r s t l y be the r e s u l t of i t s s o c i a l and h i s t o r i c a l i n p u t s which are s y n t h e s i z e d i n the p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s energy (system a d a p t a b i l i t y and innovativeness) and mass (resistance to change). In some cases a b i l i t y to respond to stresses w i l l a lso be a function of the e c o l o g i c a l or economic components of the system — e.g., the a b i l i t y to change consumption or p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s , l a n d tenure systems w i t h t h e i r concomitant impacts on land use and resources. This process of change, of adaptation to stress, w i l l i n e v i t a b l y involve feedback loops and nonlinear processes. We can i d e n t i f y two here: the f i r s t , between s o c i a l i n p u t s , land tenure, and consumption r e f l e c t s the tendency of the community's s o c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e s to coevolve or r e i n f o r c e each other. The second, between consumption, production, resources, tension and mass, r e f l e c t s the mutual interdependence of the e c o l o g i c a l and economic components of the community and the ratchet e f f e c t of people's expectations f o r consumables. As the s t r e s s on a community i n c r e a s e s i t s s t r u c t u r a l r i g i d i t y and c o n f o r m i t y and i t s consumptions of r e s o u r c e s a l s o u s u a l l y i n c r e a s e ( c f . Tuchman's [1984] review). U l t i m a t e l y , the e f f e c t of the s t r e s s e s and system's responses w i l l be seen i n the v a r i a b l e s landscape and entropy — the community ecosystem's i n t e g r i t y and disorder. The entropy of the system w i l l i n c r e a s e , community s o c i a l and other s t r u c t u r e s w i l l l o s e t h e i r s t a b i l i t y . As t e n s i o n and entropy i n c r e a s e so too may the system energy ( e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e s e n s e of i n n o v a t i v e n e s s ) as community members (i n d i v i d u a l s and organizations) search f o r solutions. 54 C l e a r l y , few s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s , l e a s t of a l l human communities ( d i s r e g a r d i n g a few r e g u l a t e d , u s u a l l y r e l i g i o u s communities) are homogeneous. Disorder and tension, the search for solutions, encourage the appearance of i n f o r m a t i o n a l f l u c t u a t i o n s ; encourage the i n d i v i d u a l s and groups whose i d e a s , g o a l s , and/or a c t i o n s are, i f not i n o p p o s i t i o n to, at l e a s t a c o n t r a d i c t i o n of the e x i s t i n g community s t r u c t u r e , to make t h e i r i d e a s known. More i m p o r t a n t l y , i t r e s u l t s i n the other members of the community g i v i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n to t h e i r ideas. T h i s i s the source of f l u c t u a t i o n s of p o t e n t i a l forces f o r re-organization that s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n can s e i z e upon. The frequency of f l u c t u a t i o n s can be expected to vary i n response to the community's energy, tension, and entropy, increasing as a l l t h r e e increase. When the t e n s i o n and entropy of the system pass a c e r t a i n p o i n t , the community s t r u c t u r e w i l l become h i g h l y u n s t a b l e and the p r o b a b i l i t y of a b i f u r c a t i o n i n the system's s t r u c t u r a l h i s t o r y w i l l be high. A b i f u r c a t i o n w i l l occur as a r e s u l t of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n when one of the f l u c t u a t i o n s , a l t e r n a t i v e solutions to the impending c r i s i s , i s widely recognized as the solution. In s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory one speaks of the a m p l i f i c a t i o n of a f l u c t u a t i o n to create long-range, macroscopic order; i n the human community i t i s communication, both i n d i v i d u a l and v i a the mass media, t h a t w i l l r e s u l t i n t h i s c r y s t a l l i z a t i o n of o p i n i o n and new order. J u s t which f l u c t u a t i o n ( a l t e r n a t i v e ) w i l l be a m p l i f i e d i s a random event but the e x i s t i n g h i s t o r i c a l and s o c i a l inputs, environment, and system of production and consumption could be expected to influence the outcome. The r e s u l t w i l l 55 be a reduction of tension i n the community but quite possibly an increase i n mass and s o c i a l and h i s t o r i c a l s t r u c t u r e s as connectedness i n c r e a s e s n e c e s s i t a t i n g management of more s t r e s s e s and responses. C o n c u r r e n t l y , transboundary flows w i l l increase, as w i l l energy and i t s rate of change, i n response to g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r , and demands f o r , a d a p t a t i o n and change as the community becomes more complex. R i f k i n (1980, p. 241) makes a s i m i l a r point. S e v e r a l pages back some b r i e f examples of the e f f e c t s of s e l f -organization on the process v a r i a b l e s were given. Here, I want to expand on the example of the r u r a l community t h a t f i n d s i t s e l f i n c r e a s i n g l y i n the urban shadow of a metropolis i n order to further i l l u s t r a t e the use of both s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory and the model v a r i a b l e s . The m e t r o p o l i s w i l l d i f f e r from the r u r a l community i n almost a l l the d e s c r i p t i v e v a r i a b l e s : production, consumption, resources, land use, landscape, and s o c i a l inputs; l a n d tenure and h i s t o r i c a l i n p u t s may be r e l a t i v e l y s i m i l a r . These d i f f e r e n c e s , e s p e c i a l l y those i n p r o d u c t i o n , consumption, r e s o u r c e s , and land use are what lead to the pressure (stress) on the community to become a p a r t of the m e t r o p o l i s . The community i s v a l u e d f o r i t s l a n d and as an access point to the hinterland behind i t . Tension i n both w i l l be high — i n the metropolis due to i t s dependence on i t s environment f o r resources; i n the community due to i t s resistance of i n t e g r a t i o n i n t o the metropolis. Entropy i n the community w i l l be low, i n the m e t r o p o l i s high. Both community and m e t r o p o l i s w i l l be out of e q u i l i b r i u m w i t h t h e i r environment but t h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e of the m e t r o p o l i s which d i s s i p a t e s (or degrades) v a s t amounts of energy and 56 material i n order to maintain i t s ( d i s s i p a t i v e ) structure. Energy and mass w i l l probably be high i n both community and c i t y i n i t i a l l y ; i n the l a t t e r because of i t s c o m p l e x i t y and d i v e r s i t y , i n the former because of the tensions i t faces and i t s r e l a t i v e l y closed past. As time passes the s t r e s s on the community w i l l i n c r e a s e , as the m e t r o p o l i s c o n t i n u e s to grow. More of the young l e a v e to work i n the metropolis or get an education, land values skyrocket pushing f o r land use changes, there i s more t r a f f i c of people and goods through the community and so on. These changes w i l l induce other changes i n the community through p o s i t i v e feedbacks: the more people who l e a v e , the more o t h e r s w i l l be tempted to l e a v e ; the more who s e l l t h e i r l a n d, the more o t h e r s who w i l l s e l l ; new and d i f f e r e n t people come i n t o the community and the greater the changes i n community c o m p o s i t i o n the l e s s a b l e w i l l the community be to present a united f r o n t against a s s i m i l a t i o n i n t o the metropolis. Tension w i l l increase, so w i l l entropy as cohesiveness i s l o s t and the metropolis i n t r u d e s . Mass w i l l tend to i n c r e a s e as the people l e f t behind i n the community become more stubborn i n the face of the i n e v i t a b l e . Energy too w i l l increase as new people and ideas flo o d the community, as people seek to f i n d s olutions (zoning) to the dilemma of r u r a l l i f e vs. c i t y l i f e — these are f l u c t u a t i o n s . Ultimately, t h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l become unstable — too many accumulated minor changes i n the environment, too much t e n s i o n — and the s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n process w i l l be completed w i t h a b i f u r c a t i o n t r i g g e r e d , perhaps, by a community le a d e r ' s d e c i s i o n to s e l l and l e a v e . Most of the 57 community members f o l l o w s u i t . Now we have a suburb. I t too w i l l be subject to change, perhaps other b i f u r c a t i o n s w i l l r e s u l t i n i t s becoming p a r t of the downtown or a ghetto. But f o r the p r e s e n t i t i s s t a b l e , r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous. Tension and energy have been decreased. Mass and entropy probably i n c r e a s e d . The "community" w i l l be much more c l o s e l y connected to the c i t y , w i l l i n v o l v e much h i g h e r f l o w s of people, energy, matter between i t and i t s environment. I t s p a t t e r n s of p r o d u c t i o n , consumption, land use, landscape, resources, and s o c i a l inputs w i l l be very d i f f e r e n t from what they were b e f o r e the d i s c o n t i n u o u s (compared to past changes) change t h a t was the r e s u l t of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n and a s s i m i l a t i o n i n t o the metropolis. The main example of the p r e c e d i n g pages has been t h a t of the a s s i m i l a t i o n of a community in t o an urban centre or metropolis. The process by which the community i s a s s i m i l a t e d i s described as a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process. The actual event of a s s i m i l a t i o n i s but a part of the much larger p r o c e s s termed u r b a n i z a t i o n . No attempt i s made to d e s c r i b e t h i s l a r g e r process f o r there i s a vast l i t e r a t u r e dealing with i t , and many aspects of i t s , such as i t s general s p a t i a l and economic form are both predictable and planable. This does not, however, preclude the usefulness of applying s e l f -o r g a n i z a t i o n theory to c e r t a i n c r i t i c a l p o i n t s i n the v a s t phenomenon of u r b a n i z a t i o n : i n p a r t i c u l a r , to the p r o c e s s t h a t determines the course ( r a t e , ease) of a s s i m i l a t i o n of a s p e c i f i c community. T h i s process, w i t h i t s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c f l o w s between c i t y and community, i t s n o n l i n e a r feedbacks, and c e n t r a l r o l e of i n d i v i d u a l (microscopic) actions i s a c l a s s i c example of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n a human system. 58 In contrast, f o r example, the impact of the private automobile, per se, on urban form i s not a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process. The growth of the road and highway network i s such a process (and indeed i s one of the e a r l i e r a p p l i c a t i o n s of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory, e.g, Al l e n , et a l . , 1978-80) as i s the e v o l u t i o n of urban form as a f u n c t i o n of many economic, s o c i a l , and t e c h n o l o g i c a l f o r c e s . I n n o v a t i o n or the spread of new technology i s not self - o r g a n i z a t i o n . The former i s purely random, the l a t t e r an example of exponential or l o g i s t i c growth (see, f o r example, Montroll, 1978). S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n o c c u r s i n every community. I t i s the i n e v i t a b l e response to the dynamic n o n l i n e a r n ature of a s o c i a l community and the s t r e s s e s , or t e n s i o n s , t h a t e x i s t w i t h i n a community as a r e s u l t of both i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l p r o c esses. There i s no t y p i c a l community i n which s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n o c c u r s f o r i t w i l l happen sooner or l a t e r i n a l l communities. The t i m i n g and r a t e of the process w i l l be a f f e c t e d by the t e n s i o n of the community, by the r a t e s of communication both w i t h i n the community and with i t s environment, and by the hi s t o r y of the community. At some c r i t i c a l point the i n t e r n a l and external tensions w i l l become such as to prevent the community from functioning with i t s e x i s t i n g structure. The e x i s t i n g structure w i l l become unstable and an a l t e r n a t i v e structure w i l l appear as a r e s u l t of the s e l e c t i o n and a m p l i f i c a t i o n of what had, u n t i l then, been o n l y an i n f o r m a t i o n a l f l u c t u a t i o n . One of the many p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e community structures (or responses) i s adopted as a consequence of communication of information from outside the community and, l a t e r , as a r e s u l t of spread of the information (alternative) w i t h i n the community. The 5 9 change i n s t r u c t u r e s due to s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n should lower t e n s i o n and i n c r e a s e energy. I am often asked f o r an example of a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n event i n a human system, or asked whether such-and-such i s an example. By considering some of these s u g g e s t i o n s , and g i v i n g some examples of my own, I hope to make c l e a r e r my c o n c e p t i o n of s o c i e t a l s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n . One s u g g e s t i o n was t h a t the o r g a n i z a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n and m o t i v a t i o n of U.B.C. SCARP P l a n n i n g students i n the face of the p o s s i b i l i t y of the School being terminated was a s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g process. I t i s not, at l e a s t i n the sense I use the term, because of the c e n t r a l r o l e of s e v e r a l i n d i v i d u a l s i n i n i t i a t i n g and m a i n t a i n i n g the proc e s s and because i t was a p u r e l y i n t e r n a l , i n d i v i d u a l process that did not r e s u l t i n new structures — i t was merely a s h o r t - l i v e d f l u c t u a t i o n . Another suggestion was that of a neighborhood group organizing i n order to gain c o n t r o l of i t s environment and to develop a sense of community among i t s component i n d i v i d u a l s . This i s a better example i n that i t i s l i k e l y to include a l l the elements of a se l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process that were i d e n t i f i e d e a r l i e r but the r e s u l t s of the proc e s s w i l l a t best a f f e c t s o c i a l structures, just one component of the t o t a l human system. The best suggestion was that of the process that might occur i n an area were i t proposed to b u i l d a major i n d u s t r i a l plant on a s i t e where i t would destroy an e c o l o g i c a l resource c r u c i a l to the residents of the area. Here, the r e s u l t i n g s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n could e a s i l y involve s o c i a l , e c o l o g i c a l and economic processes and structures, but t h i s example, l i k e the previous two, s u f f e r s from one key problem. A l l these examples i m p l y the e x i s t e n c e of 60 macroscopic human-directed s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g processes. This i s a f a u l t y use of the idea. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s not a t o o l of the planner but r a t h e r a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the systems w i t h i n which he or she works. Each of the s i t u a t i o n s d e s c r i b e d above might t r i g g e r a b i f u r c a t i o n , but w i l l not necessari l y do so and i s not, i t s e l f , s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n the sense used i n t h i s thesis. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s the key only to the broad structure of a system, not to i t s p a r t i c u l a r s . Self-organization processes i n human systems w i l l be detectable i n the same way t h a t such p r o c e s s e s are d e t e c t a b l e i n c h e m i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l systems — by t h e i r e f f e c t s , by the spatio-temporal patterns they produce. These are, broadly speaking, discontinuously changing s t r u c t u r a l patterns, such as c y c l i c a l waves i n chemical systems. Detection of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n processes i n human systems w i l l , however, be complicated by the l a r g e r - s c a l e at which the processes display t h e i r e f f e c t s . At any l e v e l , the patterns of se l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n may be obscured by the passage of time or the c l u t t e r of h i s t o r i c a l d e t a i l , or be s u b j e c t to c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . Proof of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i n human systems, i f such i s ever p o s s i b l e , may have to await a better understanding, and modelling, of the processes that shape the human system. Meanwhile, I w i l l o f f e r two possible examples of the e f f e c t s of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n processes at a global, s o c i e t a l l e v e l : the f i r s t , the s h i f t i n g pattern of p o l i t i c a l and economic dominance of the globe over the l a s t f i v e c e n t u r i e s , the second, an impending b i f u r c a t i o n , i n the c l e a r t e n s i o n s (and i n c i p i e n t demise) of the i n t e r n a t i o n a l banking system's p o s i t i o n between t h e d e v e l o p e d and t h e d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s . S e l f -61 organization i s a process that takes place i n a system. Revolutions alone are not examples of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n — they are the i d e a l i z a t i o n s of catastrophe theory. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s the v e h i c l e of r a p i d r e v o l u t i o n a r y change i n a community or society, becoming manifest only at c r i t i c a l points as a r e s u l t of the accumulation of tension and i n s t a b i l i t y . S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n proceeds i n a manner akin to that of the s a l t a t i o n a l or punctuated e q u i l i b r i a model of b i o l o g i c a l evolution (Gould & Eldredge, 1977). Sel f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s not t h e r e s u l t o f c h a n g es i n one or even a few community ( s y s t e m ) c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I t cannot be r e d u c t i o n i s t i c a l l y p r e d i c t e d . I t i s the r e s u l t of a s y n e r g i s t i c i n t e r a c t i o n between the community and i t s environment. As the next chapter should make c l e a r , s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory represents a q u a l i t a t i v e change i n our way of viewing the world, as fundamentally new as was once the systems approach. 62 CHAPTER 5 - DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS It w i l l long o f f e r to those who pursue i t the comfort that to journey i s better than to a r r i v e . C. Sherrington (quoted i n Lewis, 1981) U l t i m a t e l y , the sources of the c o n c l u s i o n s we are to d i s c u s s i n t h i s c h apter are a model and a theory. The model i s a c o n c e p t u a l one, of the structure, r e l a t i o n s , and dynamics of a subset of the comprehensive e n t i t y we term society. This model, or s i m p l i f i c a t i o n , of community evolution i s supported i n i t s p a r t s by the views of s c h o l a r s i n a number of f i e l d s yet, as a whole, i t i s a h y p o t h e s i s , perhaps unique t o i t s author (as are a l l l a r g e - s c a l e s o c i a l - s y s t e m s models — Meadows, 1982). The t h e o r y i s Prigoginian s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n . A further stage i n the development of t h i s model and theory would be to simulate the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n / e v o l u t i o n of a community or society using data from, f o r example, the work of h i s t o r i a n s such as I. W a l l e r s t e i n and F. Braudel, land-use studies such as those of the Canadian Lands Directorate (e.g., Fox & Macenko, 1985), and s o c i a l planning studies such as those of Blishen et a l . (1979). Fundamentally, what has been ac h i e v e d here i s the development of a model which includes "microscopic" s t r u c t u r a l components that not only allow the development of s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g p r o c e s s e s but a l s o suggest how such p r o c e s s e s a r i s e i n a s o c i a l , community system. T h i s i s a step beyond previous s o c i e t a l models such as those of Taylor (1976) or Prigogine (1976) which l i m i t e d themselves to a q u a l i t a t i v e d i s c u s s i o n of where s e l f -organization might and does a r i s e . A d d i t i o n a l l y , an e f f o r t has been made i n 63 Chapter 3 to i d e n t i f y the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of human systems that support the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory. I f the model of the l a s t chapter has any usefulness as such, as opposed to as an h e u r i s t i c a i d to understanding how s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n may occur i n one p a r t i c u l a r human system, t h a t u s e f u l n e s s l i k e l y l i e s i n the process variables — energy, entropy, mass, and tension — and the d i a l e c t i c a l view of the i n t e r a c t i o n s of human systems that they suggest. What do a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view of human s o c i e t i e s and the model of community evolution presented here have to say about and f o r community and regional planning? This chapter draws p r i m a r i l y on the general i m p l i c a t i o n s of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory r a t h e r than the s p e c i f i c model of Chapter 4 because the l a t t e r was in t e n d e d to i l l u s t r a t e the p r o c e s s of s e l f -organization, not to generate s p e c i f i c l e s s o n s f o r community development. The most im p o r t a n t l e s s o n s may w e l l be the most g e n e r a l . That i s , t h a t s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l processes i n human society are transformational — that i s , they bring about non-linear, non-cumulative changes. Referring back to Pr i g o g i n e ' s schema (p. 16) of s t r u c t u r e / f u n c t i o n / f l u c t u a t i o n i t i s f l u c t u a t i o n s ( i d e a s , i n n o v a t i o n s , r e v o l u t i o n s ) t h a t a l t e r s t r u c t u r e ( i . e . l e g a l , economic, p o l i t i c a l , and m o r a l / e t h i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n s ) which then impact on s o c i e t a l f u n c t i o n s which feed back i n t o the g e n e r a t i o n and a m p l i f i c a t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s . The r e s u l t of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s s t r u c t u r a l and f u n c t i o n a l change t h a t t r a n s f o r m s the community. Several r e c e n t works on s o c i a l and s o c i e t a l change have r e c o g n i z e d t h i s , most n o t a b l y M a r i l y n Ferguson (1980), but a l s o M o r r i s Berman (1981) and Robin 64 Morgan (1982) with t h e i r discussions of s o c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of new physical science paradigms. Anthropologists too have recognized the transformational nature of human society, most notably i n the development and r o l e of myth i n human communities ( P r i g o g i n e & Stengers, 1979; Luc de Heusch i n Baudson, 1984). F i n a l l y , P r i g o g i n e and h i s t h e o r i e s have even gained mention i n s e v e r a l r e c e n t s c i e n c e f i c t i o n books (e.g., A t t a n a s i o , 1981). L e t us look i n more d e t a i l at some of the components of t h i s model before returning, at the end of t h i s chapter, to the global, transformational, theme. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i s a process. A s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view of community evolution s h i f t s the emphasis away from p a r t i c u l a r states during the evolutionary process toward considerations of the process as a whole. Complementarily s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n implies a dynamic conception of community e v o l u t i o n and continuous, dynamic pro c e s s t h a t i s never at e q u i l i b r i u m , never s t a t i c or s t a t i o n a r y . P l a n n e r s need to be p l a n n i n g the process, o b s e r v i n g , d i s c o v e r i n g i t s m a c r o s c o p i c m a n i f e s t a t i o n s r a t h e r t h a n endeavouring to plan i t s state or structure at a point i n time — an attempt that i s doomed to have temporary success at best. A s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view of community e v o l u t i o n i m p l i e s the importance of u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t the i n t e r n a l h i s t o r y of the system i s d e t e r m i n i s t i c a t the l e v e l of a p o i n t i n the system but s t o c h a s t i c at the l e v e l of the system as a whole. The system's h i s t o r y can imply the appearance of c e r t a i n s t r u c t u r e s , processes, or changes ( P r i g o g i n e & Stengers, 1979). This h i s t o r i c a l determinism i s most apparent perhaps i n the form of c e r t a i n of the world's great, o l d c i t i e s such as Rome ( I l y a Prigogine and Serge Pahout i n Baudson, 1984). This h i s t o r i c a l determinism 65 works p r i m a r i l y through a f f e c t i n g the timing of b i f u r c a t i o n (the onset of i n s t a b i l i t y ) , the time a t which s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n ( b i f u r c a t i o n ) i s i n i t i a t e d , and through e f f e c t s on the outcome of the process as a r e s u l t of s e l e c t i v e a m p l i f i c a t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s . Thus, the planner should be aware of the i n t e r n a l , s t r u c t u r a l h i s t o r y of the community and, through knowledge of the s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g process, consider how i t may a f f e c t the future of the community. One of the most s u r p r i s i n g r e s u l t s of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory was that near b i f u r c a t i o n the law-of-large-numbers breaks down (G l a n s d o r f & Prigogine, 1971). That i s to say that the p r o b a b i l i t y of macroscopic events becomes non-Poissonian; instead of the average d r i v i n g the mean, i n d i v i d u a l f l u c t u a t i o n s do so i n an a p r i o r i unpredictable way. This was and s t i l l i s a shock to science, which has hardly become accustomed to the s t a t i s t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n of thermodynamics or the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the Heisenberg Uncertainty P r i n c i p l e . More p r a c t i c a l l y , f o r us i n the study of community e v o l u t i o n t h i s a s p e c t of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n emphasizes the u l t i m a t e u n p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of community e v o l u t i o n and the n o n - l i n e a r nature of the processes of that evolution. One must remember that the community i s always " i n time", changing, never "out of time", or s t a t i c ( P r i g o g i n e , 1985). The planner must learn to think of community evolution d i f f e r e n t l y than he has i n the past. Community s t r u c t u r e i s u n p r e d i c t a b l e , apt to e v o l v e non-l i n e a r l y , and most importantly, a f t e r b i f u r c a t i o n occurs may be incomparable to the previous structure (Allen, et a l . , 1985). Two other more te c h n i c a l r e s u l t s on nonequilibrium chemical structure 6 6 suggest another i n t e r e s t i n g p o s s i b i l i t y . Such systems have been found to be s e n s i t i v e t o weak g r a v i t a t i o n a l or e l e c t r i c or p o l a r or c h i r a l f i e l d s (Kondepudi & Prigogine, 1981; N i c o l i s & Prigogine, 1981). A s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g system at the point of b i f u r c a t i o n i s able to be influenced by environmental c o n d i t i o n s and to s e l e c t as a r e s u l t s p a t i a l l y asymmetric s o l u t i o n s . In communities i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e r e w i l l be f o r c e s on the community analogous to the physicist's f i e l d s (e.g., economic — Dyckmann, 1984) which w i l l influence the subsequent structure of the community — quite probably toward asymmetry i n time (i.e., a q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t regime) w i t h r e s u l t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r s o c i a l and p h y s i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e p l a n n i n g . That i s an i n f r a s t r u c t u r e s u i t a b l e f o r the p r esent c i t y s t r u c t u r e may be t o t a l l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e i n the f u t u r e . T h i s symmetry b r e a k i n g has been p e r c e i v e d and shown by many a r t i s t s over the l a s t few m i l l e n i a ( G r e g o i r e N i c o l i s i n Baudson, 1984). S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n i m p l i e s an emphasis on q u a l i t a t i v e change ( A l l e n , 1982; A l l e n et a l . , 1985) and on time (Umberto Eco i n Baudson, 1984; P r i g o g i n e , 1985), which i s o f t e n n o t a b l y absent i n both s c i e n c e and p l a n n i n g . F l u c t u a t i o n s are i n n o v a t i o n s , i d e a s . They are n o n - r a t i o n a l , c r e a t i v e and as such the u n p r e d i c t a b l e p r e c i p i t a t o r s of b i f u r c a t i o n s and s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n . P l a n n i n g too must be c r e a t i v e , i n n o v a t i v e , even non-r a t i o n a l to the extent t h a t the g o a l s and a c t i o n s of the members of a community may be non-rational, i f i t i s to have any hope of a n t i c i p a t i n g or i n f l u e n c i n g a b i f u r c a t i o n . P l a n n e r s too must study and p l a n f i r s t of a l l f o r q u a l i t a t i v e changes i n s t r u c t u r e — not more or l e s s of the same but something completely d i f f e r e n t — i f they wish to keep up with the evolving, 67 s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g community. T h i s , on a v a s t e r s c a l e , i s Braudel's (1984) point when he says, apropos of the world economy: Are not the day-to-day remedies proposed to meet the c r i s i s completely i l l u s o r y ? For the re v e r s a l of the secular trend i s a s t r u c t u r a l c r i s i s which could only be resolved by thorough-going s t r u c t u r a l demolition and reconstruction. (p. 618) Systems e c o l o g i s t s ( C l a r k & H o l l i n g , 1979) too have r e c o g n i z e d the importance of q u a l i t a t i v e s t r u c t u r a l change i n r e a l world s i t u a t i o n s (the spruce budworm). F i n a l l y , we may observe t h a t w h i l e i t i s f l u c t u a t i o n s t h a t d r i v e the mean near a b i f u r c a t i o n , they do so because one or a few of them have attained a macroscopic "coherence length" and begun to generate long-range order. T h i s i s evidence of communication, i n the broadest sense of the word, and even l e a r n i n g ( A l l e n e t a l . , 1985) w i t h i n t h e s y s t e m . F l u c t u a t i o n s are a m p l i f i e d , as a r e s u l t of communication and l e a r n i n g i n order to generate macroscopic order. Communication and learning are the key so we should not be s u r p r i s e d to see a paper g i v i n g a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l model of an urban system i n the report of a "Symposium on C i t i e s and Regions as N o n - l i n e a r D e c i s i o n Systems" ( A l l e n , 1983). The planner need concern h i m s e l f w i t h the substance and pro c e s s of communication a t two l e v e l s . Within the community where communication w i l l have a primary e f f e c t on the growth and spread of selected f l u c t u a t i o n s (cf. Watzlawick, et al. , 1967 on the systems theory of group communication) and between the community and i t s environment where the pri m a r y e f f e c t w i l l be on the s e l e c t i o n of f l u c t u a t i o n s and the r a t e of t h e i r spread ( a m p l i f i c a t i o n ) — c f . Toynbee 68 (1968) on the r o l e of such communication i n b r e a k i n g down the b a r r i e r s of national sovereignty — perhaps the ultimate s o c i a l b i f u r c a t i o n . I want to conclude with some general remarks on s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n and pla n n i n g . In Chapter 1, we noted the i d e a t h a t p l a n n i n g and plan s are the veh i c l e of the s o c i e t a l s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process. In view of the r o l e s of choice and s t r u c t u r a l change i n self- o r g a n i z a t i o n , t h i s cannot be true f o r i t i m p l i e s an a b i l i t y to p r e d i c t and manage a proc e s s t h a t by d e f i n i t i o n cannot be predicted. The b e l i e f i n society's a b i l i t y to predict and manage the broad form and d e t a i l of i t s own f u t u r e i s today one of the l e a s t t e n a b l e of the human c o n c e i t s . The p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory w i l l b r i n g about a r e v o l u t i o n i n the way we t h i n k about the human environment (as s c i e n t i s t s or p l a n n e r s or c i t i z e n s ) i s one of the more promising and important of the theory's i m p l i c a t i o n s (Prigogine & Stengers, 1979). Though we manage on a s h o r t - t e r m , c o n t i n g e n c y b a s i s now, we never have and probably never w i l l be a b l e to guide the long-term e v o l u a t i o n of human society. Planning t h e o r i s t s have a tendency to favour e i t h e r a s o c i a l science-based approach or a natural science-based approach (with many va r i a t i o n s of each and l i t t l e unanimity on which i s best). Ozbekhan (1968) even suggested planning was the core of s o c i a l science (in contrast to the more i n t u i t i v e l y l i k e l y opposite). Most planning t h e o r i s t s , however, have had a predictive, r a t i o n a l management o r i e n t a t i o n ( n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n s i n c l u d e Friedmann & Weaver, 1979; Schon, 1983). I t i s t h i s which must, most of a l l , change i n the face of a s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view of community evolution. Community 69 and regional planners w i l l s t i l l work with c i t i z e n s , with l o c a l and other i n s t i t u t i o n s , t r y i n g to meet community needs and goals, but they w i l l have to do so b e a r i n g i n mind the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s ( c o m p l e x i t y , n o n l i n e a r i t y , d i s c o n t i n u i t y ) and the d i f f e r e n t goals t h i s w i l l f o r c e on them: management of change, of communication, of s t a b i l i t y and i n s t a b i l i t y , awareness of history, always with an eye to the o c c u r r e n c e of the next b i f u r c a t i o n , how they might i n f l u e n c e i t and what s t r u c t u r a l changes i t w i l l b r i n g . As Higgs (1985: p. 45) put i t , " C a r e f u l design w i l l serve to match e x i s t i n g and p o t e n t i a l environmental conditions of the system with i t s s p e c i f i c s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g properties." As the theory and a p p l i c a t i o n of s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n are f u r t h e r developed i t should become possible to i d e n t i f y impending b i f u r c a t i o n s by a t t e n t i o n t o t h e s o u r c e s and m a g n i t u d e s of i n c r e a s e s i n t e n s i o n , i n s t a b i l i t y , and entropy i n the system. At the l e v e l s of communities and s o c i e t i e s , p l a n n e r s may w e l l be i n the best p o s i t i o n to r e c o g n i z e these signs and to i d e n t i f y measures i n t e r n a l and external to the system capable of i n f l u e n c i n g the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process. Such measures might include measures to f a c i l i t a t e the flow of materials and information i n t o and out of, and within, the community; attempts to encourage p a r t i c u l a r s t r u c t u r a l changes w i t h i n the community; and e f f o r t s to t r a c k the pace of change through the use of computer and information technologies. S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory asks the planner to face the broad, long-term pattern and evolution of the systems i n which he works, as w e l l as i t s day-to-day functioning. I t i s not simply a matter of developing a systems view — everything connected to everything else — but a more complex view that 70 emphasizes the dynamic evolution of human systems — as we have endeavoured to p r e s e n t i n the p r e c e d i n g pages. At the l e v e l of communities and s o c i e t i e s s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory requires, and provides the framework for, the planner to expand h i s understanding of the e v o l u t i o n a r y p r o c e s s e s of these systems and to take a r o l e i n the development of the t h e o r e t i c a l understanding of human systems — by himself looking at and working with t h i s new conception of the nature of the evolutionary process. T h i s i s the approach necessary i f we a r e to make s u s t a i n a b l e development a r e a l i t y . I t i s a l e a r n i n g , a d a p t i v e approach t h a t aims to e l u c i d a t e i n t e r - and i n t r a - s y s t e m r e l a t i o n s h i p s through an immediate and c o n t i n u i n g c o mbination of theory and a p p l i c a t i o n s . S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n theory, by i t s emphasis on s t r u c t u r e , change, and pro c e s s e s , may i n time provide one way of u n i t i n g e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l structures i n human systems and thus f a c i l i t a t e sustainable development planning. In Chapter 1, I compared t h e s y s t e m s and s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of a community or regional history. The dif f e r e n c e was that between s t r u c t u r a l d e s c r i p t i o n and dynamic process description. Here I want to examine some of the i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s d i f f e r e n c e f o r p l a n n i n g and planners. While the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a l view of human systems i m p l i e s a b a s i c i n d e t e r m i n a c y i n the e v o l u t i o n of the system, t h i s i s no argument not to plan — p r e c i s e l y the opposite. At small s p a t i a l and chronological scales p l a n s and p l a n n i n g may be l i t t l e a f f e c t e d . But the " b i g " plans, the r e g i o n a l s c a l e and l a r g e r , over l o n g e r time p e r i o d s , must change. Not 71 a b o l i s h e d , but made to i n c o r p o r a t e u n c e r t a i n t y and the l i k e l i h o o d of d i s c o n t i n u o u s change, to r e c o g n i z e the n o n l i n e a r p r o c e s s e s t h a t generate change, and to have b u i l t i n t o them the m o n i t o r i n g f u n c t i o n s necessary to t r a c k the proc e s s of change and to be prepared f o r the unexpected ( c f . Goldberg, 1985). At t h i s l e v e l , the r o l e of the planner w i l l be m o n i t o r i n g change and m a n i p u l a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n and communication i n an e f f o r t to guide the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n process. That i s i n f o r m a t i o n i n the sense of i n p u t s to and outputs of the processes underlying the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n structure, and communication between the elements of the s e l f - o r g a n i z i n g system whether i n d i v i d u a l s , organizations, or computers. This i s a r o l e that w i l l require the melding of the s c i e n t i f i c s k i l l s of the systems t h e o r i s t and information s c i e n t i s t with the understanding and sense of d i r e c t i o n of a good community planner and organizer. Of course t h e r e i s much s t i l l t o be l e a r n e d about human systems and about s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n w i t h i n them. We can think of the t y p i c a l systems view of a community as l i k e the basic s e r i e s of f o s s i l s that trace the form of a s p e c i e s ' e v o l u t i o n , w h i l e the s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n view i s l i k e the e f f o r t s of the paleoecologist and pa l e o b i o l o g i s t s to e s t a b l i s h the external e c o l o g i c a l environment and the i n t e r n a l genetic environment that shaped the e v o l u t i o n of those forms w i t h which we are f a m i l i a r . The f i r s t i s of h i s t o r i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e and d e s c r i p t i v e ( c l a s s i f i c a t o r y ) usefulness but only the l a t t e r can e x p l a i n the proc e s s and h o l d any hope of p r e d i c t i n g the future — or understanding what Milan Zeleny (1985) has c a l l e d the existence of "spontaneous s o c i a l orders." 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General Systems, 11: 117— 31. 85 APPENDIX I - GLOSSARY Note: the names of var i a b l e s i n the model are c a p i t a l i z e d . a m p l i f i c a t i o n — increase i n magnitude; here to increase i n s p a t i a l scope, e.g., a m p l i f i c a t i o n of m i c r o s c o p i c f l u c t u a t i o n s to c r e a t e long-range order. a u t o c a t a l y t i c — the s i t u a t i o n when one of the prod u c t s of a proc e s s enhances the rate of the process which produces i t . b i f u r c a t i o n — an abrupt (discontinuous) change between the way things have been and the way they w i l l be i n f u t u r e , e.g., a b i f u r c a t i o n i n the evolution of the state of a system. closed system — from thermodynamics; a system that exchanges energy but not matter with i t s environment. community — a cohesive assemblage of i n d i v i d u a l s and t h e i r i n s t i t u t i o n s i n a r e l a t i v e l y l o c a l i z e d place and time, c f . society. community s t r u c t u r e — the t o t a l of the e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l structures that c o n s t i t u t e a community. component — a major constituent part of a (sub)system that i s not, at the l e v e l of complexity under consideration, i t s e l f a system; a determinant of community structure. connectedness — a p r o p e r t y of systems; i m p l i e s t h a t a change i n a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of one system w i l l a f f e c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of those systems to which i t i s connected. CONSUMPTION — the a c t u a l u s i n g up (degrading) of renewable and non-renewable resources. d e t e r m i n i s t i c — a system i s d e t e r m i n i s t i c i f i t s f u t u r e s t a t e can be p r e d i c t e d on the b a s i s of g i v e n i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s and a knowledge of the forces acting on i t . d i s c o n t i n u i t y — a break i n the structure of a system; a q u a l i t a t i v e change i n the fundamental nature of a process or structure. 86 d i s s i p a t i v e s t r u c t u r e — P r i g o g i n e ' s term f o r the s t r u c t u r e s t h a t r e s u l t from s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n as a consequence of the n o n l i n e a r , c a t a l y t i c processes within the system that d i s s i p a t e matter and energy i n creating and maintaining system structure. dynamic — a p r o p e r t y of systems; the o p p o s i t e of s t a t i c ; i m p l i e s a complex, changing pattern of structures and processes wi t h i n the system over time. e c o l o g i c a l — 1) of or pertaining to the b i o l o g i c a l or p h y s i c a l systems of the human environment, e.g., the b i o s p h e r e , l i t h o s p h e r e , atmosphere, hydrosphere; 2) i n the sense of " e c o l o g i c a l a n t hropology" or "human e c o l o g i c a l systems" e c o l o g i c a l r e f e r s more s i m p l y to the p a t t e r n of i n d i v i d u a l s and groups and t h e i r growth, decline, and i n t e r a c t i o n . economic — of or p e r t a i n i n g to those ( a r t i f i c i a l ) systems of the human e n v i r o n m e n t i n v o l v i n g t h e exchange between i n d i v i d u a l s and/or organizations of goods and s e r v i c e s and the u t i l i z a t i o n of e c o l o g i c a l resources. emergent properties — properties of systems that appear spontaneously once a c e r t a i n l e v e l of complexity has been reached. ENERGY — system a d a p t a b i l i t y and innovativeness; defined within a given system as the e x t e n t of l e a r n i n g ( n e g a t i v e feedback) r e l a t i v e to opportunity plus the rate of innovation. entropy — i n thermodynamics, a measure of the disorder of the system; a measure of the energy a v a i l a b l e to do work. ENTROPY — a r e s u l t of i n e f f i c i e n t or i n e f f e c t i v e use of a (human) system's re s o u r c e s ; d e f i n e d w i t h i n a s p e c i f i c system as d e v i a t i o n from t h a t ordered s t r u c t u r a l s t a t e n e c e s s a r y to meet the needs and g o a l s of the 'system. environment — a l l those components of the human system t h a t are not included i n the p a r t i c u l a r subsystem being considered. e q u i l i b r i u m — a system i s i n e q u i l i b r i u m i f the forces acting on i t sum to zero; i.e., i f i n the absence of a change i n the f o r c e s a c t i n g on i t , i t undergoes no s t r u c t u r a l change. evolution — the process of continuing change i n the nature of a system as a r e s u l t of forces external and i n t e r n a l to i t . extensive — defined by and extending homogeneously over the e n t i r e system; e.g., mass and volume i n physico-chemical systems. 87 far-from-equilibrium — a state, f a r from that which would otherwise r e s u l t (equilibrium) that i s mantained by flows of energy and matter over the system boundaries. f l u c t u a t i o n — a s m a l l change i n the v a l u e or nature of some system c h a r a c t e r i s t i c which, under most circumstances, w i l l disappear r a p i d l y . f o r c e — t h a t which changes the s t a t e of a system from what i t would have been i n the absence of the force. f u n c t i o n a l i t y — usefulness; of or pertaining to what a system, structure, or process does or should do. HISTORICAL INPUTS — l e g a c y of past s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e i n the form of myth, r i t u a l , t r a d i t i o n , e tc. human system — the t o t a l system of the earth or some part of i t invo l v i n g the e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l subsystems. i n d i c a t o r — a c t u a l , o b s e r v a b l e community c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s subsumed by a va r i a b l e . information — fact, knowledge; anything which j u s t i f i e s a change i n a plan or st r u c t u r e . i n t e n s i v e — d e f i n e d a t , and o f t e n t a k i n g on a d i f f e r e n t v a l u e at, each p o i n t i n a system, e.g., p r e s s u r e and temperature i n p h y s i c o - c h e m i c a l systems. i n t e r n a l h i s t o r y — the h i s t o r y of the s t r u c t u r e s and p r e s s u r e s w i t h i n a system i n c o n t r a s t to a h i s t o r y of the system's r e l a t i o n s w i t h i t s environment, e.g., the s p a t i a l pattern of a c i t y over time. i r r e v e r s i b l e — a process i s i r r e v e r s i b l e i f i t s past i s not knowable from a knowledge of i t s present state and the forces acting on i t . i s o l a t e d system — a system that exchanges neither matter nor energy with i t s environment; a t h e o r e t i c a l i d e a l u seful i n thermodynamics. LANDSCAPE — the o v e r a l l i n t e g r i t y of the e c o l o g i c a l component of community. LAND TENTURE — the system of determining land ownership and land use. LAND USE — the s i t e - s p e c i f i c use of land and i t s resources. macroscopic — large-scale; v i s i b l e ; of the same order of magnitude as the e n t i r e system. 88 MASS — a measure of community s t r u c t u r a l i n e r t i a and stagnation; defined as s t r u c t u r a l r i g i d i t y plus s o c i a l conformity. microscopic — small-scale, i n v i s i b l e ; of the same order of magnitude as the constituents of the system; e.g., molecules are microscopic, a gas cloud i s macroscopic. nonlinear — a nonlinear reaction or process i s one which involves c a t a l y t i c steps or feedback loops. open system — a system which exchanges both energy and matter w i t h i t s environment. parameter — c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ( c o n s t a n t s or other terms i n a mathematical equation) of a system that d i s t i n g u i s h i t from fundamentally d i f f e r e n t ones. PRODUCTION — the r e s u l t of consumption; generation of u s e f u l products and non-useful wastes. q u a l i t a t i v e — concerned with quality; the nature of a thing, rather than i t s quantity. quantitative — concerned with the magnitude or quantity or measurement of a thing rather than i t s fundamental nature or q u a l i t y . r e d u c t i o n i s t — attempting to reduce complex phenomena to the simplest terms possible; i . e . , the usual method of the physical sciences. RESOURCES — the actual amount and d i s t r i b u t i o n of resources on a s p e c i f i c s i t e . r e v e r s i b l e — a r e v e r s i b l e p r o c e s s i s one whose past i s knowable from a knowledge of i t s p r e s e n t s t a t e and the f o r c e s a c t i n g on i t , e.g., the t r a j e c t o r y of a dropped b a l l i n c l a s s i c a l mechanics. s e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n — the generation of order i n an open, nonlinear system as a r e s u l t of processes i n t e r n a l to the system. s o c i a l — of or p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e i n t e r a c t i o n and o r g a n i z a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e i r r e l a t i o n s with other i n d i v i d u a l s . SOCIAL INPUTS — the e f f e c t s of the community's s o c i a l s tructure. s o c i a l structure — the formal (e.g., governments, laws) and informal (e.g., classes, castes) mechanisms by which the r e l a t i o n s of the i n d i v i d u a l s of a society are regulated. 89 society — a c o l l e c t i o n of communities and i n d i v i d u a l s with a common s o c i a l structure. s t o c h a s t i c — a stochastic process i s one whose evolution i s determined by random events. s t r e s s — a f o r c e f o r change i n a system; most o f t e n , but not always, o r i g i n a t i n g outside the system. s t r u c t u r a l change — change i n the structure, i n the mode of functioning, of a system. s t r u c t u r a l s t a b i l i t y — s t a b i l i t y of a system i n the f a c e of s t r u c t u r a l change — does the change take over the system or i s i t r e s i s t e d . system — a complex whole c o n s i s t i n g of t h i n g s , p a r t s , i n d i v i d u a l s , structures, processes, and systems. TENSION— goodness of f i t ; d e f i n e d as a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of community s t r u c t u r e g i v e n e x t e r n a l c o n s t r a i n t s . The worse the goodness of f i t , the higher the tension. v a r i a b l e — the a c t u a l components of the model which r e p r e s e n t the e c o l o g i c a l , economic, and s o c i a l components of community. 

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