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The rise and fall of attitudes : longitudinal comparisons with economic motive using data from a field… Warriner, G. Keith 1985

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THE RISE AND FALL OF ATTITUDES: LONGITUDINAL COMPARISONS WITH ECONOMIC MOTIVE USING DATA FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT by KEITH WARRINER B.A. , The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1977 M . S c , The Univers i ty of Wisconsin-Madison, 1979 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE (SOCIOLOGY) STUDIES We accept t h i s thes is as conforming t^ ,©; the required standard: THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA 1 985 © Gerald Keith Warriner, 1985 In present ing th is thes is in p a r t i a l ' fu1f i Iment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary sha l l make it f ree ly ava i l ab le for reference and study. I fur ther agree that permission for extensive copying of th is thes is for scho la r ly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h is representa t ives . It is understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of th is thes is for f inanc ia l gain sha l l not be allowed without my wr i t ten permiss ion. Department of The Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1W5 Anthropology and Sociology Feb. 21, 1985 Date ABSTRACT L i t t e r i n g , g iv ing blood, conserving energy, voter r e g i s t r a t i o n and wearing seatbelts serve as examples of publ ic behaviours which governments have attempted to a l t e r . Whether i t be for purposes of c o n t r o l l i n g cos ts , helping other c i t i z e n s , or protect ing the environment, a l t e r i n g behavioural patterns which operate against the general we l l -be ing of society has become big business. A plethora of techniques have been employed in e f f o r t s to sway the a c t i v i t y patterns of people. While various approaches have been undertaken, the research focuses upon two t r a d i t i o n s . F i r s t , an economic or behavioural approach i s employed where behavioural changes are bel ieved to be influenced most e f f e c t i v e l y by mater ial rewards. Second, cognit ive or a t t i t u d i n a l approaches stress that a t t i tudes play an operative ro le in e f fec t ing behavioural change. Using s h i f t s in da i l y patterns of energy use as an example of s o c i a l behaviour, the research reported here contrasts cognit ive and economic models. While the two approaches can be complementary, i t a lso may be that under cer ta in condit ions one or the other model i s most success fu l . Where the two models do contrast i s in the predict ions made about what behavioural change w i l l resu l t a f te r the removal of economic incent ives . Data from a large f ie ld-experiment using a mul t i - s tage p robab i l i t y sample of nearly 700 Wisconsin households i s analysed to examine the inf luence of cogni t i ve and behavioural models of t ime-of -day energy usage. The object ive of the experiment was to determine whether economic s t imu l i could be used to reduce peoples' use of peak-time energy consumption. Behavioural change in energy consumption patterns was measured by in-house meters which recorded a l l usage for a year p r io r to the introduct ion of spec ia l t ime-of -day ra tes ; for three years while the rates were in e f f e c t ; and for a sub-sample of households, the summer af ter the rates ended. In a d d i t i o n , three waves of survey data from mailed questionnaires administered p r i o r t o , dur ing, and fol lowing the experiment allow monitoring of the development and change in a t t i tude toward t ime-of -day p r i c i n g of e l e c t r i c i t y , and i t s inf luence on behaviour. In contrast to e a r l i e r published work, th i s ana lys i s suggests only a minimal, independent impact of a t t i tude on behavioural change under t ime-of -day e l e c t r i c i t y ra tes . At the conclusion of the experiment, and in the absence of any further f i n a n c i a l rewards, households, by and la rge , returned to former consumption l e v e l s . Concomitant changes in a t t i t u d i n a l commitment occurred as w e l l . Nevertheless, a subset of households, cons t i tu t ing some twenty percent of the o r i g i n a l sample, remained highly committed to peak e l e c t r i c i t y reductions and, to a degree, maintained t h e i r p r io r conserving behaviours without further f i n a n c i a l i i i reward. Several analyses were performed in an attempt to reconci le the contradictory nature of the current f indings with those of e a r l i e r research. It i s argued that the apparent influence of a t t i tude in a f f e c t i n g behaviour at the time the p r i c i n g incentive was in e f fect was exaggerated by householders subst i tu t ing an a t t i t u d i n a l for a f i n a n c i a l motive. Further, the inf luence of pr ice on a t t i tude formation may have been underestimated due to the c u r v i l i n e a r re la t ion of pr ice with behaviour. Evidence in support of each of these hypotheses i s provided. It i s concluded that , in combination with p r i c e , a t t i tude i s important to maintaining behavioural change, but that i t s independent inf luence, in t h i s instance, i s minor. At the same time, the ef fect of pr ice appears less based on the s ize of the p r i c i n g incent ive , than serving as an informational source s i g n a l l i n g appropriate a c t i o n , i r respect i ve of the absolute f i n a n c i a l reward. F i n a l l y , the thes is concludes with some speculations on the lessons from t h i s experiment for other attempts to a l t e r behavioural pat terns . TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract i i Table of Contents v L i s t of Tables v i i i L i s t of Figures x Acknowledgements x i CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1 1 .1 Introduction 1 1.2 Research Sett ing 4 1.3 Research Synopsis 6 1.3.1 Theoret ical Focus 6 1.3.2 P r a c t i c a l Focus 9 1.3.3 Att i tude-Behaviour Theory. 16 1.3.4 Analys is Goals 20 1.4 Thesis Overview 24 1.5 Chapter Summary 26 CHAPTER 2: THE "ENERGY CRISIS" AND STRATEGIES FOR SOCIAL CHANGE 28 2.1 Introduction 28 2.2 S t r u c t u r a l , Behavioural and Cognitive Approaches to Energy Conservation 30 2.2.1 S t ruc tura l Strategies 30 2.2.2 Behavioural Strategies 32 2.2.3 Cognit ive Approaches 44 2.3 Chapter Summary 52 CHAPTER 3: ELECTRICITY PRICING BY TIME-OF-DAY: COGNITIVE AND BEHAVIOURIST MODELS OF CONSUMER RESPONSE 54 3.1 Introduction 54 3.2 Cognitive and Behavioural Approaches to Peak E l e c t r i c i t y Reductions 55 3.2.1 Economic Analys is of Time-of-Use P r i c i n g 55 3 .2 .2 Reinforcement Theory 63 3 .2 .3 Cognit ive Approaches to Behavioural Change under Time-of-Day R a t e s . . . . 69 3.3 Models and Hypotheses 77 3.3.1 Hypotheses.. 81 3 .3 .2 Extended Model 83 3.4 Chapter Summary 85 V CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY 86 4.1 Introduction 86 4.1.1 Author's Role 87 4.2 Experimental Design 89 4.2.1 Reducing Response Bias in the Experimental Design 95 4.3 Sampling 98 4.3.1 Exclusions to the Sampling Frame.. 100 4.3.2 Sample Representativeness 103 4.4 Rate Implementation 104 4.4.1 Customer Information 105 4.4.2 1978 Rate Increase 107 4.4.3 Experimental A t t r i t i o n 107 4.4.4 Post-Experimental Consumption 109 4.5 Mailed Questionnaires 110 4.6 Dependent Measures 113 4.6.1 Residual ized Change Scores 114 4.7 Independent Measures 117 4.8 L imi tat ions to the Study 118 4.8.1 The Household as the Unit of Analys is 120 4.8.2 Cross -Sect ional versus Experimental Data 122 4.8.3 Sampling 124 4.8.4 G e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the Results from the Post-Experimental Group.. 128 4.8 .5 R e l i a b i l i t y and V a l i d i t y 130 4.9 Chapter Summary 135 CHAPTER 5: CHANGES IN ATTITUDES AND SELF-REPORTED BEHAVIOURS FOLLOWING THE EXPERIMENT 137 5.1 Introduction 137 5.2 Results from Heberlein and Warriner (1983b)..' 139 5.3 Post-Experimental A t t i t u d i n a l C h a n g e . . . . . . 142 5.3.1 Change in A t t i t u d i n a l Commitment.. 145 5.4 Post-Experimental Sel f -Reports of Behaviour 150 5.4.1 Evidence of the "Highly Committed" 154 5.5 Factors A f fec t ing Commitment and Post -Experimental Reported Behaviours 156 5.5.1 Pred ic t ing Sel f -Reports of Off-Peak Use 160 5.5.2 Pred ic t ing Commitment and H a b i t . . . 161 5.6 Chapter Summary 168 CHAPTER 6: ATTITUDE, PRICE AND POST-EXPERIMENTAL CONSUMPTION 171 6.1 Introduction 171 6.2 Comparing Peak Consumption 173 v i 6.3 Cognitive and Behaviourist Models of Peak Load Reductions 175 6.4 Pr ice -Related Ef fects on Reductions in Peak E l e c t r i c i t y Use: A Recons iderat ion . . . 182 6.5 Further Considerations: Models of Combined Ef fects and the "Highly Committed" 190 6.5.1 A Model of Combined Ef fects 191 6.5.2 Post-Experimental Consumption by the "Highly Committed" 196 6.6 Chapter Summary 200 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION 203 7. 1 Introduction 203 7.2 Behaviourist and Cognitive Models of Response to Time-of-Day P r i c i n g 205 7.3 P r a c t i c a l Impl icat ions 207 7. 4 Conclusion 211 BIBLIOGRAPHY 214 APPENDIX A: MAP OF SERVICE TERRITORY 245 APPENDIX B: FACSIMILE OF TIME-OF-DAY CUSTOMERS' MONTHLY STATEMENT 246 APPENDIX C: REVISED TIME-OF-DAY RATES 247 APPENDIX D: RESPONSE RATES TO MAILED SURVEYS 248 APPENDIX E: QUESTIONNAIRES 249 APPENDIX F: CORRELATION MATRIX OF PRINCIPAL VARIABLES, 296 APPENDIX G: ITEMS COMPRISING ATTITUDINAL SCALES 307 v i i LIST OF TABLES Number Page 4.1 . Chronology of the Experiment 88 4.2 Schematic Diagram of the Experimental Design 90 4.3 Rates in E f fect at the Beginning of the Experiment 90 4.4 A t t r i t i o n from the Sample 108 4.5 Summer Consumption Months for the Wisconsin Time-of-Use Rate Demonstration Project 115 4.6 Behavioural Commitment Scale 119 5.1 Comparison of A t t i t u d i n a l Scales 143 5.2 Crosstabulat ion of Commitment Scale 146 5.3 Comparison of A t t i t u d i n a l Commitment Scores by Experimental Condit ion 149 5.4 Reported Peak Usage of Appliances from Midstream and Ex i t Surveys 151 5.5 Reported Peak Usage Fol lowing Exper iment . . . . 153 5.6 Sel f -Reports of Post-Experimental Behaviours 155 5.7 Zero-Order Associat ions for Reported Behaviours 158 5.8 Regression of Reported Behaviours on A t t i t u d i n a l , Treatment and Demographic Factors 161 5.9 Zero-Order Associat ions for Commitment Scales and Report that Time-of-Day Schedule i s a Habit 163 5.10 Factors Pred ic t ing Commitment and Habit Scales 165 6.1 Proportion of Peak Usage by Group 174 6.2 Corre lat ions Among Behavioural Change and A t t i t u d i n a l and Sociodemographic V a r i a b l e s . . 178 v i i i 6.3 P r i c i n g Treatment E f fec ts on Changes in Peak Consumption 187 6.4 Regression of Midstream Commitment with Addi t iona l A t t i t u d i n a l Scales 190 6.5 Regressions of Factors A f fec t ing Change in Demand for E l e c t r i c i t y Under Time-of-Day P r i c i n g 194-5 6.6 Proportion of Peak Usage by Nine-Hour Group by Score on Commitment Scale 197 i x LIST OF FIGURES Number Page 3.A B e h a v i o u r a l and C o g n i t i v e Models of Economic and A t t i t u d i n a l E f f e c t s of Time-of-Day Use of E l e c t r i c i t y 78 3. B C o g n i t i v e , Economic and S t r u c t u r a l F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Demand f o r E l e c t r i c i t y by Time-of-Day 84 4. A On- and Off-Peak Hours f o r Summer and Winte r 92 5. A E f f e c t s of P r i c e R a t i o , A p p l i a n c e S t o c k , Knowledge and Commitment on E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption f o r the T h i r d Test Summer 140 6. A E s t i m a t i o n of B e h a v i o u r a l and C o g n i t i v e Models 181 6.B E f f e c t s of P r i c e and Commitment on B e h a v i o u r a l Change D u r i n g 3 Years Under Time-of-Day Rates and the P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Summer 183 6.C Extended Model of F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g R e d u c t i o n s i n Peak E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption.. 193 x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T h i s p r o j e c t c o u l d not have been completed w i t h o u t the s u p p o r t , a s s i s t a n c e and f o r b e a r a n c e of numerous i n d i v i d u a l s a t e v e r y s t a g e of i t s p r o g r e s s . In p a r t i c u l a r , d u r i n g the pas t two y e a r s i t has been my e x t r a o r d i n a r y good f o r t u n e t o have N e i l Guppy as my c h i e f mentor, a d v i s o r , and good f r i e n d . By d i r e c t t u t e l a g e , by example, and by i n s p i r a t i o n , N e i l has c o n t r i b u t e d i n c a l c u l a b l y t o my e d u c a t i o n and growth. H i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g , h e l p , f r i e n d s h i p and -- o c c a s i o n a l l y -- e x h o r t a t i o n s were e s s e n t i a l t o the c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s p r o j e c t . In the p l a n n i n g , e x e c u t i o n , c r i t i q u e , and r e v i s i o n of t h i s work, N e i l ' s a d v i c e has been i n v a l u a b l e . Nor c o u l d t h i s p r o j e c t have been undertaken w i t h o u t the a s s i s t a n c e of P r o f e s s o r Tom H e b e r l e i n of the U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n . Tom was i n s t r u m e n t a l i n the d e s i g n of the W i s c o n s i n r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n e x p e r i m e n t , i n the d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , and i n f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e i r t r a n s f e r from Madison, to Vancouver. My p r i o r t r a i n i n g under Tom, c o l l a b o r a t i v e work w i t h him, and h i s i n s i g h t s and a d v i c e a l l s e r v e d as e s s e n t i a l i n g r e d i e n t s t o the f o r m u l a t i o n of t h i s r e s e a r c h problem. I have a l s o b e n e f i t e d from the guidance and encouragement p r o v i d e d from o t h e r members of my committee, p r o f e s s o r s Martha F o s c h i , George Gray and John C l a x t o n . P r o f e s s o r F o s c h i f i r s t i n s p i r e d me as an undergraduate t o x i t a k e an i n t e r e s t i n q u a n t i t a t i v e s o c i o l o g y and s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y , and a c t e d as my a d v i s o r d u r i n g my f i r s t year as a g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. I am g r a t e f u l f o r her e f f o r t s , and the p a t i e n c e she d i s p l a y e d d u r i n g t h e s e i m p o r t a n t s t a g e s of my e d u c a t i o n . I am i n d e b t e d as w e l l t o p r o f e s s o r s Werner Cohn and M a r t i n M e i s s n e r f o r a g r e e i n g t o s e r v e on the e x a m i n i n g committee, and t o P r o f e s s o r Joe D i s a n t o , of the U n i v e r s i t y of C a l g a r y , f o r a c t i n g as the e x t e r n a l examiner. I w i s h a l s o t o thank members of the W i s c o n s i n Time-of-Use Rate D e m o n s t r a t i o n P r o j e c t . As a member of t h i s team f o r f o u r y e a r s i t was a r a r e p r i v i l e g e t o share t h i s r e s e a r c h e x p e r i e n c e w i t h such an u n u s u a l l y c o o p e r a t i v e , open, c o n g e n i a l and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y a s t u t e group of p e o p l e . Nor c o u l d t h i s p r o j e c t have been completed w i t h o u t the a d d i t i o n a l a s s i s t a n c e p r o v i d e d by members of the Department of A n t h r o p o l o g y and S o c i o l o g y a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o lumbia, and my o t h e r f r i e n d s , whose c o o p e r a t i o n a-nd u n d e r s t a n d i n g were so n e c e s s a r y t o the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a good w o r k i n g environment. As w e l l , I w i s h t o acknowledge f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t p r o v i d e d t o me d u r i n g the p a s t two y e a r s by a p r e - d o c t o r a l f e l l o w s h i p from the Izaak Walton K i l l a m F o u n d a t i o n f o r Advanced S t u d i e s . F i n a l l y , I want t o thank a l l the members of my f a m i l y f o r t h e i r unswerving s u p p o r t , l o v e and r e g a r d throughout the y e a r s , w i t h o u t which I would c e r t a i n l y have xi i t u r n e d back on more than one o c c a s i o n . I am g r a t e f u l t o my w i f e , D i a n e , and d a u g h t e r , Rhonda, who, i n s p i t e of my f r e q u e n t absences, have c o n t i n u e d t o p r o v i d e the humour, u n d e r s t a n d i n g and encouragement so n e c e s s a r y t o my p r o g r e s s . For t h e i r s a c r i f i c e s i n p a r t i c u l a r , I am i n d e b t e d . xi i i 1 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n More than a decade of s o c i a l s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h i n t o energy c o n s e r v a t i o n has y i e l d e d l i t t l e u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the r e l a t i o n s between economics and a t t i t u d e s . T h i s i s u n f o r t u n a t e s i n c e from a p u b l i c p o l i c y p e r s p e c t i v e s o l u t i o n s t o energy problems c o u l d b e n e f i t from a s y n t h e s i s of the s e two approaches. Economic e v i d e n c e t h a t p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e e f f e c t i v e i n promoting b e h a v i o u r a l change complements the b e h a v i o u r i s t t r a d i t i o n i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y — b e s t t y p i f i e d by S k i n n e r i a n p s y c h o l o g y — which has over many y e a r s of i n v e s t i g a t i o n r e p e a t e d l y demonstrated the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of e x t e r n a l rewards and s a n c t i o n s i n i n f l u e n c i n g b e h a v i o u r . C o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y , i n c o n t r a s t t o the b e h a v i o u r i s t t r a d i t i o n , d e a l s w i t h t h e s o c i a l l y d e t e r m i n e d i n t e r n a l s t a t e s and p s y c h o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s of the i n d i v i d u a l and t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on b e h a v i o u r . The major f o c u s of i n v e s t i g a t i o n from t h i s t r a d i t i o n has been a t t i t u d e . However, i n c o n t r a s t t o economic and b e h a v i o u r i s t r e s e a r c h , the f i n d i n g s from such work have not always been 2 c o n s i s t e n t , and as a r e s u l t f o r much of i t s h i s t o r y t h i s t r a d i t i o n has been s u b j e c t t o c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n t r o v e r s y . T h i s debate has a l s o been extended t o a t t i t u d i n a l r e s e a r c h on energy c o n s e r v a t i o n . S e v e r a l a u t h o r s have q u e s t i o n e d the u s e f u l n e s s of f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s u s i n g the c o g n i t i v e approach s i n c e the r e l a t i o n between a t t i t u d e s and a c t i o n s t o reduce energy consumption appears so u n l i k e l y . 1 A d d i t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h i s q u e s t i o n i s w a r r a n t e d , n e v e r t h e l e s s , s i n c e , i f e f f e c t i v e , the approach has much t o o f f e r . That i s , many c o n s e r v a t i o n programs r e l y e i t h e r on c o e r c i v e r e g u l a t o r y s t r a t e g i e s , or i n e q u i t a b l e , and o f t e n u n j u s t i f i e d , p r i c e i n c r e a s e s i n o r d e r t o promote c o n s e r v a t i o n . Such p r o c e d u r e s have problems w i t h r e s p e c t t o the c o s t s of enforcement, p l u s the need t o c o n t i n u e i n c e n t i v e s i n o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n c o m p l i a n c e . Over time p e o p l e may adapt t o h i g h e r p r i c e s or r e f u s e t o comply w i t h a r e g u l a t i o n which i s p e r c e i v e d t o be u n e n f o r c e a b l e . On the o t h e r hand, the advantages' of promoting c o n s e r v a t i o n t h rough a t t i t u d i n a l change a r e t h a t the p r o c e s s i s b o t h v o l u n t a r y and e q u i t a b l e , w h i l e needing no enforcement. Thus i t f i t s w e l l w i t h i n the i d e o l o g i c a l c o n t e x t of f r e e s o c i e t i e s , and saves money. In a d d i t i o n , s i n c e c o n s e r v a t i o n i s based on i n t e r n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , 1 See r e v i e w s by M i l s t e i n , 1977; O l s e n , 1981; and O l s e n and Goodnight, 1977 and an a n n o t a t e d b i b l i o g r a p h y by Frankena (1977). 3 r a t h e r than on e x t e r n a l r e i n f o r c e m e n t s , i t s enactment s h o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y l o n g - t e r m . Over the y e a r s the a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r debate has c e n t e r e d on d e f i n i t i o n a l problems, w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t a comprehensive model of c o n d i t i o n s under which c l o s e a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r congruence o c c u r s has never been de v e l o p e d . With r e c e n t r e s e a r c h and c o n s i d e r a b l e r e c o n c i l i a t i o n among d e b a t i n g p a r t i e s , t h e r e i s now g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e two f a c t o r s . In the energy f i e l d , i n s p i t e of the s k e p t i c i s m of c e r t a i n r e v i e w e r s , t h e r e has a l s o been p r o g r e s s , and a number of s t u d i e s now demonstrate a r e l a t i o n s h i p between a t t i t u d e s and c o n s e r v a t i o n (Becker e t a l . , 1981; B l a c k , 1978; Bowman and F i s h b e i n , 1978; H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1983b; Macey and Brown, 1983). However, the i s s u e of how o t h e r f a c t o r s combine w i t h a t t i t u d e s t o account f o r b e h a v i o u r , remains. The time has come t o i n v e s t i g a t e the r e l a t i o n s between a t t i t u d e and one such f a c t o r — economic i n c e n t i v e . In the r e s e a r c h p r e s e n t e d here t h i s i s done w i t h the purpose of d e t e r m i n i n g t o what degree th e s e two q u i t e d i s t i n c t c o n c e p t s a r e independent of one a n o t h e r . The development and i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d e i n a f f e c t i n g b e h a v i o u r over s e v e r a l y e a r s w i l l be a s s e s s e d and compared t o the i n f l u e n c e of an economic p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s . In p a r t i c u l a r t h i s r e s e a r c h w i l l examine the c o n c o m i t a n t i n f l u e n c e of these two f a c t o r s , the development of a t t i t u d e , and the r e l a t i o n i t 4 has w i t h p r i c e . Here i t w i l l be of major importance t o m o n i t o r the r o l e of a t t i t u d e i n a f f e c t i n g b e h a v i o u r once the economic s t i m u l u s has been removed. Such an e v a l u a t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t t e s t of the q u e s t i o n of whether a t h e o r y of a t t i t u d e s i s subsumed or complemented by economic t h e o r y . The a v a i l a b l e d a t a a l l o w such an i n v e s t i g a t i o n by p r o v i d i n g a t t i t u d i n a l and b e h a v i o u r a l measures f o r a p e r i o d of s e v e r a l months f o l l o w i n g removal of the economic s t i m u l u s . 1.2 Research S e t t i n g The data t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d are from a f o u r year f i e l d experiment examining consumer response t o t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g of e l e c t r i c i t y . Time-of-day p r i c i n g i s a r e l a t i v e l y new way t o charge f o r e l e c t r i c i t y . C u r r e n t l y most e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s charge an e q u a l p r i c e f o r a u n i t of e l e c t r i c i t y r e g a r d l e s s of when i t i s used. However, the s e p r i c e s r e f l e c t o n l y the u t i l i t i e s ' average e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n c o s t . A c t u a l c o s t s v a r y a c c o r d i n g t o the time of day when e l e c t r i c i t y i s demanded. At c e r t a i n p o i n t s of the day — such as i n the morning or l a t e a f t e r n o o n — t h e r e i s g r e a t e r demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y than a t o t h e r t i m e s . Thus the u t i l i t y must have r e s e r v e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y ready t o meet demand d u r i n g peak use p e r i o d s . Such g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s a r e e x p e n s i v e t o b u i l d , a r e o n l y i n o p e r a t i o n d u r i n g s h o r t p e r i o d s of the day or y e a r , and a r e g e n e r a l l y o p e r a t e d on l e s s e f f i c i e n t and more c o s t l y p e t r o l e u m or n a t u r a l gas 5 f u e l s , r e l a t i v e t o base l o a d c o a l , n u c l e a r or h y d r o e l e c t r i c s t a t i o n s . In o r d e r t o d i s c o u r a g e demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g peak p e r i o d s , i t has been argued t h a t u t i l i t i e s s h o u l d be p e r m i t t e d t o charge more f o r e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g the h i g h demand tim e s ( B o i t e u x , 1964; S t e i n e r , 1957; T a y l o r , 1977; Turvey, 1969; W i l l i a m s o n , 1966). Such a p r o p o s a l i s s i m i l a r t o the way l o n g d i s t a n c e t e l e p h o n e c a l l s and a i r l i n e t i c k e t s a re c u r r e n t l y p r i c e d . The d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t f o r i n d i v i d u a l h ouseholds such commodities a r e not s u b j e c t t o c o n t i n u o u s d a i l y demand i n the home i n the same way as i s e l e c t r i c i t y . F u r t h e r , e l e c t r i c i t y i s not consumed as an end i n i t s e l f . Rather i t i s a " d e r i v e d demand", or a commodity expended i n the s a t i s f a c t i o n of o t h e r needs, such as food p r e p a r a t i o n or b a t h i n g . I t s a c t u a l e x p e n d i t u r e i s mediated t h r o u g h a household m e c h a n i c a l s t o c k over which the consumer o f t e n has v e r y l i t t l e c o n t r o l . That i s , by and l a r g e the hou s e h o l d e r has d i s c r e t i o n a r y i n f l u e n c e over o n l y some a p p l i a n c e s , u s u a l l y those of low demand such as t e l e v i s i o n s and l i g h t s . On the o t h e r hand many major a p p l i a n c e s (such as r e f r i g e r a t o r s , f r e e z e r s , and water h e a t e r s ) have s e l f m o n i t o r i n g systems and c y c l e t h e m s e l v e s on and o f f . Give n the c o n t i n u o u s n a t u r e of demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y and the r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t r a i n e d d i s c r e t i o n a r y c o n t r o l over the o p e r a t i o n of a p p l i a n c e s of consumers, the q u e s t i o n a r i s e s of whether i n d i v i d u a l s can s u c c e s s f u l l y s u b s t i t u t e a 6 s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r d a i l y e l e c t r i c i t y use t o o f f - p e a k p e r i o d s i n response t o t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . In the r e s e a r c h p r e s e n t e d here t h i s i s s u e i s b e i n g a d d r e s s e d , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o what r o l e a t t i t u d e s p l a y i n t h i s s h i f t . 1.3 Research S y n o p s i s 1.3.1 T h e o r e t i c a l Focus The t h e o r e t i c a l f o u n d a t i o n s of t h i s r e s e a r c h r e s t upon the a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n s p r o v i d e d by the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e s c h o o l s of s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y . In v e r y e l e m e n t a r y terms the b e h a v i o u r i s t approach p o s i t s b e h a v i o u r a l change t o f o l l o w as a f u n c t i o n of a c t u a l or a n t i c i p a t e d e x t e r n a l r e i n f o r c e m e n t s , whether p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e . From t h i s p o i n t of view, p r i c e , the economic s t i m u l u s , i s seen as a d e t e r m i n a n t of b e h a v i o u r as i n d i v i d u a l s seek t o a v o i d the n e g a t i v e consequences of f a i l i n g t o change ( i . e . , b e i n g f i n a n c i a l l y p e n a l i z e d ) . On the o t h e r hand, a c o g n i t i v e t h e o r y of a c t i o n p o s i t s b e h a v i o u r t o emanate from an u n d e r l y i n g system of c o g n i t i v e elements c o m p r i s i n g b e l i e f s , v a l u e s and a t t i t u d e s . T h i s s t r u c t u r e i s assumed t o be r e a s o n a b l y c o h e r e n t and i n t e r n a l l y c o n s i s t e n t . That i s , a t t i t u d e i s h e l d t o be a r e l a t i v e l y e n d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t o r g a n i z e d around a p a r t i c u l a r 7 o b j e c t or s i t u a t i o n which p r e d i s p o s e s one t o behave i n a p r e f e r e n t i a l way. On t h i s b a s i s p r i c e may be r e l a t e d t o b e h a v i o u r through a t t i t u d e i n o r d e r t o r e i n f o r c e one or more of a number of c o n s i s t e n t l y h e l d c o g n i t i v e e l ements. Thus p r i c e i s i n f o r m a t i o n a l and s i g n a l s a p p r o p r i a t e ( i . e . , i n t e l l i g e n t or s o c i a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e ) b e h a v i o u r f o r a g i v e n s i t u a t i o n . An a t t i t u d i n a l model e x p l a i n s b e h a v i o u r as a f u n c t i o n of a c t i o n p erformed t o a c h i e v e g o a l s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h one's b e l i e f s . P r i c e may i n s p i r e c o g n i t i v e r e o r g a n i z a t i o n such t h a t b e h a v i o u r which i s i n l i n e w i t h s a v i n g money f o l l o w s from i t , or i t may s i m p l y add t o an e x i s t i n g s e t of i n t e r n a l l y c o n s i s t e n t b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s . However, the m o t i v a t i o n f o r b e h a v i o u r i s d i f f e r e n t than t h a t of p r i c e a l o n e i n f l u e n c i n g the a c t s of i n d i v i d u a l s ( i . e . , s e e k i n g t o a v o i d the n e g a t i v e r e i n f o r c e m e n t of f i n a n c i a l l o s s ) . I n s t e a d , a c c o r d i n g t o the a t t i t u d i n a l model the b a s i s of b e h a v i o u r i s t o a c t i n a c c o r d w i t h one's own r a t i o n a l l y based mental s t a t e s s i n c e t o do o t h e r w i s e i s t o i n c u r the i n t e r n a l s a n c t i o n s of f a i l i n g t o behave c o n s i s t e n t l y . So l o n g as the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s and a t t i t u d e c o e x i s t , the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e s c h o o l s make s i m i l a r p r e d i c t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o b e h a v i o u r . I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o s o r t out how the two v a r i a b l e s , p r i c e and a t t i t u d e , a r e r e l a t e d . The e f f e c t s of each may i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r 8 d i r e c t l y or the i n f l u e n c e of p r i c e may be mediated by a c o n v e n i e n t l y developed a t t i t u d e . However, once the r e i n f o r c e m e n t schedule i s removed the two t h e o r i e s a re no l o n g e r i n a c c o r d . From the b e h a v i o u r i s t p o i n t of view the removal of the c o n d i t i o n e d s t i m u l u s , p r i c e , s i g n a l s the e x t i n c t i o n of b e h a v i o u r . The p r o c e s s of b e h a v i o u r a l e x t i n c t i o n i s a f u n c t i o n of the degree t o which the organism d e v e l o p s awareness t h a t the r e i n f o r c e m e n t i s no l o n g e r f o r t h c o m i n g . T h e r e f o r e , from t h i s p o i n t of view i t i s assumed t h a t the e x t i n c t i o n of b e h a v i o u r t a k e s p l a c e v e r y r a p i d l y , so l o n g as i n d i v i d u a l s a r e a d e q u a t e l y and c r e d i b l y i n f o r m e d t h a t p r i c e can no l o n g e r be re g a r d e d as a m o t i v e . C o n v e r s e l y , a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y assumes b e h a v i o u r w i l l c o n t i n u e u n t i l such time as a p r o c e s s of c o g n i t i v e r e o r g a n i z a t i o n r e n d e r s i t i n c o n s i s t e n t . I t i s p o s s i b l e , of c o u r s e , t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l f o l l o w the impulse of "economic man" and s i m p l y a d j u s t t h e i r a t t i t u d e s and o t h e r c o g n i t i v e s t a t e s t o r e f l e c t t h e change i n economic c o n d i t i o n s . W h i l e i n the l o n g term some change a l o n g t h e s e l i n e s may w e l l , and r e a s o n a b l y , t a k e p l a c e , i t i s g e n e r a l l y assumed t h a t c o g n i t i v e systems a r e r e l a t i v e l y e n d u r i n g and thus not s u b j e c t t o s h o r t term change u n l e s s the r e c e i p t of new i n f o r m a t i o n ( i . e . , the change i n p r i c e ) i m m e d i a t e l y prompts r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n and r e s y n t h e s i s among a range of c e n t r a l l y h e l d v a l u e s , a t t i t u d e s and b e l i e f s . For the reasons s u g g e s t e d i n the next s e c t i o n , i n the t i m e - o f - d a y e x p e r i m e n t a l households b e i n g examined here the removal of 9 the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e does not c o n s t i t u t e an acknowledgement t h a t such r a t e s are no l o n g e r n e c e s s a r y . Thus, w h i l e the removal of the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e h e n c e f o r t h p r e c l u d e s a f i n a n c i a l m o tive as the b a s i s f o r c o n t i n u e d peak r e d u c t i o n s , the reasons f o r b e i n g committed t o such r e d u c t i o n s because i t i s s o c i a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e , or i t p r o t e c t s the environment -- remain. In summary, the a t t i t u d i n a l model p r e d i c t s t h a t once committed, i n d i v i d u a l s do not change t h e i r b e h a v i o u r s e a s i l y , even i n c o n s i d e r a t i o n of some changes i n the environment. Rather than b e i n g d e r i v e d from e x t e r n a l rewards or punishments a l o n e , the p r o c e s s of commitment comes from w i t h i n and i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the s a t i s f a c t i o n a c h i e v e d from the knowledge t h a t what one i s d o i n g i s a l s o r i g h t . 1.3.2 P r a c t i c a l Focus I t i s u s e f u l t o c o n s i d e r t h e s e t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n s i n more p r a c t i c a l terms. Two t h i n g s may not be i m m e d i a t e l y a p p a r e n t . F i r s t , why would an i n d i v i d u a l h o l d a p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e toward r e d u c i n g l e v e l s of e l e c t r i c i t y consumption d u r i n g c e r t a i n t i m e s of the day? A s i d e from the p o s s i b l e monetary rewards, i t seems f a i r l y c l e a r t h a t such an a c t i o n does not have many o b j e c t i v e b e n e f i t s . S c h e d u l i n g t a s k s t o o f f - p e a k times i s l i k e l y t o e n t a i l a t a minimum i n c o n v e n i e n c e , and i n c e r t a i n c a s e s may even i n v o l v e 10 h a r d s h i p or r i s k s t o h e a l t h ( f o o d p r e p a r a t i o n f o r i n f a n t s , the e l d e r l y or s i c k may need t o be changed or r e s c h e d u l e d , f a m i l y members may argue over a p p l i a n c e s c h e d u l i n g , h e a t i n g and c o o l i n g of homes may be a f f e c t e d , e t c . ) . Even i f o n l y m i n i m a l l y i n c o n v e n i e n t , c o n s e r v i n g energy a t c e r t a i n t i m e s of the day seems t o have l i t t l e p e r s o n a l b e n e f i t or p a y o f f . The answer, of c o u r s e , i s t h a t the o b j e c t i v e b e n e f i t s a c h i e v a b l e due t o a p a r t i c u l a r a t t i t u d e a r e but one c o n s i d e r a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o a t t i t u d i n a l f o r m a t i o n , and i n many c a s e s an unimportant one. For example, i n l i b e r a l , p l u r a l i s t i c s o c i e t i e s i n which the p o p u l a t i o n i s e n j o i n e d t o h o l d t o l e r a n t , e g a l i t a r i a n a t t i t u d e s toward d i f f e r e n t r a c i a l and r e l i g i o u s m i n o r i t i e s , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t such views r e s u l t i n j u s t , n o n - p r e j u d i c a l a c t i o n s toward such p e o p l e . C l e a r l y t h e r e a r e o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e t o most i n d i v i d u a l s t o b e n e f i t p e r s o n a l l y from r a c i a l l y d i s c r i m i n a t o r y p r a c t i c e s , but i t i s hoped t h a t i n most c a s e s such b e h a v i o u r s a r e i n h i b i t e d because they a r e u n d e r s t o o d t o be u n f a i r and wrong. C o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s b e l i e v e t h a t such a t t i t u d e s and r e s u l t i n g a c t i o n s emanate from an u n d e r l y i n g system of b e l i e f s and v a l u e s which a re the r e s u l t of each i n d i v i d u a l ' s unique l i f e e x p e r i e n c e s ( s o c i a l i z a t i o n , a c c u l t u r a t i o n , m a t u r a t i o n , s o c i a l l e a r n i n g , e t c . ) . I t i s on the b a s i s of the s e u n d e r l y i n g v a l u e s and b e l i e f s t h a t p a r t i c u l a r a t t i t u d e s a r e d e r i v e d and c o n s t i t u t e a t l e a s t one 11. b a s i s f o r a c t s by i n d i v i d u a l s which a re n e i t h e r s e l f i s h nor s e l f - s e r v i n g (Bern, 1970; Za j o n c , 1968). For some i n d i v i d u a l s f e e l i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y towards p r e s e r v i n g the environment, or a c t i n g t o cons e r v e energy a r e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s of an u n d e r l y i n g v a l u e s t r u c t u r e . I t i s not n e c e s s a r i l y t h a t they a r e seen as p e r s o n a l l y b e n e f i c i a l (except on an i n t r i n s i c l e v e l ) , and i t seems apparent t h a t some b e l i e v e i n such t h i n g s d e e p l y enough t o be w i l l i n g t o undergo a t l e a s t some i n c o n v e n i e n c e , h a r d s h i p or d i s c o m f o r t to a c t i n a c c o r d w i t h t h e s e v a l u e s . C l e a r l y t h e r e a r e l i m i t s t o the i n c o n v e n i e n c e s even the d e e p l y committed w i l l t o l e r a t e , and c l e a r l y o n l y c e r t a i n i n d i v i d u a l s adhere t o those v a l u e s which p r e d i s p o s e them t o a c c e p t and a c t i n a c c o r d w i t h c e r t a i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y - r e l a t e d a t t i t u d e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , some a c t i o n s a r e a t t i t u d i n a l l y - b a s e d . As f o r t i m e - o f - d a y h o u s e h o l d s , i t i s not o n l y those among them c o n s i d e r e d t o be " e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s " t o whom t h i s a p p l i e s . H y p o t h e t i c a l l y , a l l i n d i v i d u a l s who a s c r i b e p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a s i t u a t i o n which i s p e r c e i v e d t o have p o t e n t i a l l y d e l e t e r i o u s s o c i a l consequences a r e c a n d i d a t e s f o r a t t i t u d i n a l l y - b a s e d a c t i o n ( S c h w a r t z , 1977). Thus, t h e r e a r e a range of m o t i v e s which may u n d e r l y a be h a v i o u r such as s h i f t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y consumption t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s , i n a d d i t i o n t o those which have an e c o l o g i c a l b a s i s ( the d e s i r e t o be seen as a good c i t i z e n , w i s h i n g t o h e l p the u t i l i t y , e t c . ) . 12 I t i s on the b a s i s of t h i s r e a s o n i n g t h a t a t t i t u d e s a r e seen t o d e v e l o p and l e a d t o energy c o n s e r v a t i o n under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s by c e r t a i n h o u s e h o l d s . Even though the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n p e a k i n g may be a new and u n f a m i l i a r i s s u e , c e r t a i n i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l f e e l i n c l i n e d , f o r o t h e r than monetary r e a s o n s , t o h e l p a l l e v i a t e them. In f a c t i t has been noted t h a t b e l i e f s , v a l u e s , a t t i t u d e s and knowledge i n c o m b i n a t i o n ( r e f e r r e d t o as c o g n i t i v e s c r i p t s or schemata) a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l i n h e l p i n g p e o p l e t o d e c i d e c o u r s e s of a c t i o n i n s i t u a t i o n s which a r e u n f a m i l i a r ( A l b e l s o n , 1981; Markus, 1977). Such c o g n i t i v e s t r u c t u r e s may a c t as maps t o which people r e f e r t o d e t e r m i n e what i s a p p r o p r i a t e b e h a v i o u r f o r a g i v e n s i t u a t i o n . Such s t r u c t u r e s a re by no means p e r f e c t r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of human r e a s o n i n g , or p r e d i c t o r s of b e h a v i o u r , and pe o p l e may not f o r m u l a t e a t t i t u d e s or o t h e r w i s e a c t i n a c c o r d w i t h them i n e v e r y s i t u a t i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , any f a i l u r e t o do so p l a c e s t h e i n d i v i d u a l a t r i s k w i t h r e s p e c t t o the l i k e l i h o o d of e n c o u n t e r i n g s e l f - r e c r i m i n a t i o n s f o r f a i l i n g t o behave c o n s i s t e n t l y w i t h one's own v a l u e s . There i s an o t h e r reason which, when combined w i t h the c o g n i t i v e c o n s i s t e n c y r a t i o n a l e , l e a d s t o p r e d i c t i o n s of a t t i t u d i n a l l y - b a s e d peak e l e c t r i c i t y r e d u c t i o n s by ti m e - o f - d a y h o u s e h o l d s . T h i s has t o do w i t h c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the d u a l r o l e of the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e i n w e s t e r n , f r e e market c u l t u r e s . 1 3 I t i s a w e l l known maxim of much economic t h e o r y t h a t p r i c e a c t s t o b e n e f i t consumers by a l l o w i n g i n d i v i d u a l s t o a l l o c a t e l i m i t e d f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s i n o r d e r t o maximize u t i l i t y . Thus, v i a c a r e f u l b u d g e t i n g , the consumer t h e o r e t i c a l l y may d e r i v e maximum s a t i s f a c t i o n and o b j e c t i v e b e n e f i t from a f i x e d l e v e l of f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s . Time-of-day p r i c i n g a f f o r d s new f l e x i b i l i t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h i s p r o c e s s . By c h o o s i n g t o s h i f t t h a t p o r t i o n of consumption t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s which e n t a i l s a m i n i m a l t r a d e o f f i n c o n v e n i e n c e , the consumer may i n c r e a s e u t i l i t y , or s a t i s f a c t i o n , by. a c q u i r i n g s a v i n g s from energy b i l l s w hich may then be expended on o t h e r d e s i r e d commodities. I t i s t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y which i s the essence of much economic and b e h a v i o u r i s t r e a s o n i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g . The t i m e - d i f f e r e n t i a t e d r a t e s t r u c t u r e p r o v i d e s a t a n g i b l e inducement f o r b e h a v i o u r a l change. N e v e r t h e l e s s , such a model o f f e r s no b a s i s f o r l o n g term b e h a v i o u r a l change i n the absence of such inducements, and so c o n f l i c t s w i t h the p r e d i c t i o n of e n d u r i n g change p r o v i d e d by the c o g n i t i v e c o n s i s t e n c y model d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r . There i s , however, an o t h e r f u n c t i o n of p r i c e which i n t e g r a t e s economic and a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y and l e a d s t o the p r e d i c t i o n of ongoing b e h a v i o u r a l change, even when the f i n a n c i a l inducement i s withdrawn. That i s , i t i s c e n t r a l t o the n e o c l a s s i c a l economics i n which p e o p l e i n w e s t e r n , f r e e market s o c i e t i e s have been s c h o o l e d , t h a t r i s i n g p r i c e s a r e i n d i c a t i v e of p r o d u c t s f o r which demand o u t s t r i p s 14 s u p p l y . In t h i s sense p r i c e i s i n f o r m a t i o n a l : i t s i g n a l s t h a t q u a n t i t i e s of the commodity i n q u e s t i o n a r e l i m i t e d . T h i s a s p e c t of p r i c e — i n which i t a c t s as a s i g n a l t o consumers of impending s h o r t f a l l s i n s u p p l y — i s a c o n v e n t i o n a l t o o l used i n the f o r m u l a t i o n of s o c i a l p o l i c y . I t i s one means by which s o c i e t y i s i n f o r m e d t h a t consumption of a commodity must be c o n s t r a i n e d . I t i s e f f e c t i v e as a p o l i c y t o o l not o n l y because of i t s i n f o r m a t i o n a l component, but because i t s message i s so s a l i e n t . There a r e p e n a l t i e s f o r f a i l i n g t o comply. Whi l e a f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e i s i n e f f e c t , i t makes l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e which of the two f u n c t i o n s of p r i c e u t i l i t y m a x i m i z a t i o n or i n f o r m a t i o n a l — i s the b a s i s f o r consumer b e h a v i o u r . In terms of .households p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n a t i m e - d i f f e r e n t i a t e d p r i c i n g s t r u c t u r e f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , some may be r e d u c i n g on-peak consumption i n o r d e r t o save money, w h i l e o t h e r s may be r e s p o n d i n g t o the message i m p l i c i t i n the p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l s u g g e s t i n g t h a t the uneven demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i s a s o c i a l problem. However, i t i s t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n a l a s p e c t of p r i c e which may be the b a s i s f o r l o n g term b e h a v i o u r a l changes once the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e i s removed. Presumably i n d i v i d u a l s who a r e concerned about energy i s s u e s or s h o r t a g e s a r e a l s o those who w i l l respond t o the message in v o k e d by the change i n p r i c e . A c t i n g i n a c c o r d w i t h t h e i r a t t i t u d e s , t h i s group may s t r i v e t o c u r t a i l t h e i r l e v e l s of peak consumption, perhaps w i t h l i t t l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the f i n a n c i a l rewards 15 which a l s o a c c r u e t o them as a r e s u l t of these a c t i o n s . Thus, even i f the f i n a n c i a l b e n e f i t s a re c u r t a i l e d , t h e s e consumers may wi s h t o c a r r y on w i t h t h e i r c o n s e r v i n g b e h a v i o u r s . That i s , i n an e x p e r i m e n t , known by i t s p a r t i c i p a n t s t o be i n e f f e c t f o r o n l y a s h o r t d u r a t i o n , the removal of the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e does not c o n s t i t u t e an acknowledgment t h a t p e a k i n g i n e l e c t r i c i t y demand i s no l o n g e r a problem on energy s u p p l y or e n v i r o n m e n t a l grounds. T h e r e f o r e , i f the b e h a v i o u r a l t e n d e n c i e s of members of t h e s e h ouseholds have been induced by the d e s i r e t o a c t i n a c c o r d w i t h a t t i t u d e s c o n c e r n i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , and these a t t i t u d e s have been made s a l i e n t as a f u n c t i o n of the message c o n t a i n e d i n the p r i c i n g s i g n a l , such households a r e not p r o v i d e d w i t h a r a t i o n a l e f o r r e t u r n i n g t o t h e i r former consumption h a b i t s once the e x p e r i m e n t a l p r i c e s a r e removed. R a t h e r , i t can be argued t h a t f o r t h i s group of hou s e h o l d s t h e r e w i l l be low l e v e l s of r e c i d i v i s m w i t h r e s p e c t t o r e t u r n s t o former l e v e l s of on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption once the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e i s removed. Such an argument i s of c o u r s e premised on the i d e a t h a t a t t i t u d e s a r e indeed e n d u r i n g , b e h a v i o u r a l l y - r e l a t e d , and l a r g e l y u n a f f e c t e d by changes i n economic c o n d i t i o n s . 16 1.3.3 A t t i t u d e - B e h a v i o u r Theory C o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h a t t e n t i o n has been d i r e c t e d t o the a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p . Much of t h i s r e s e a r c h has y i e l d e d d i s a p p o i n t i n g l y weak r e s u l t s ( e . g . , B e r g , 1966; Bray, 1950; L a P i e r r e , 1934; Nemeth, 1970). Wicker (1969) i n a r e v i e w of t h i r t y key s t u d i e s s t a t e d , " i t i s c o n s i d e r a b l y more l i k e l y t h a t a t t i t u d e s w i l l be u n r e l a t e d or o n l y s l i g h t l y r e l a t e d t o o v e r t b e h a v i o u r s than t h a t a t t i t u d e s w i l l be c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o a c t i o n s " , and McGuire (1968) wrote t h a t , " t h e r e i s l i t t l e c l e a r e v i d e n c e t h a t a t t i t u d e s can be p r e d i c t a b l y changed by c o g n i t i v e a p p e a l s or even i f they a r e changed w i l l have any p r e d i c t a b l e i n f l u e n c e on b e h a v i o r " . N e v e r t h e l e s s , r a t h e r than s i g n a l l i n g the demise of a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r r e s e a r c h , t h e s e and o t h e r c r i t i q u e s (Blumer, 1954; D e u t s c h e r , 1966) have promoted i n t e r e s t i n i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p . One e n c o u r a g i n g l i n e of i n q u i r y has fo c u s e d on m e t h o d o l o g i c a l r e f i n e m e n t s i n a t t i t u d i n a l and b e h a v i o u r a l measures. By a s s e s s i n g both v a r i a b l e s a t c o r r e s p o n d i n g l e v e l s of s p e c i f i c i t y — t h a t i s , measuring a t t i t u d e toward the a c t f o r the p r e d i c t i o n of a s p e c i f i c b e h a v i o u r or measuring a g l o b a l a t t i t u d e toward an o b j e c t f o r the p r e d i c t i o n of a m u l t i p l e - a c t b e h a v i o u r a l c r i t e r i o n — a r e a s o n a b l e degree of p r e d i c t i v e a c c u r a c y can be o b t a i n e d ( A j z e n and F i s h b e i n , 1977; H e b e r l e i n and B l a c k , 1976; W e i g e l and Newman, 1976; Vernon and Tognace, 1974). 17 A second l i n e of i n q u i r y , encouraged by Kelman (1974), has attempted t o demonstrate how both p e r s o n a l and c o n t e x t u a l v a r i a b l e s may i n t e r a c t t o i n f l u e n c e a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r congruence. For example, Norman (1975) has shown t h a t the degree of a f f e c t i v e - c o g n i t i v e c o n s i s t e n c y i n the a t t i t u d e c o n s t r u c t may moderate a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r c o r r e s p o n d e n c e . As w e l l , Schwartz (1973; 1977; 1978) argues t h a t c l o s e a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r congruence f o l l o w s when i n d i v i d u a l s a s c r i b e p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a c t i o n t o t h e m s e l v e s , and Snyder and Tanke (1976) have demonstrated t h a t low s e l f m o n i t o r s , t h a t i s , i n d i v i d u a l s who a s c r i b e m o t i v a t i o n a l f o r c e s t o inward s t a t e s , show h i g h a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r (A-B) c o r r e s p o n d e n c e . F i n a l l y , i n i n v e s t i g a t i n g s i t u a t i o n a l d e t e r m i n a n t s of A-B c o r r e s p o n d e n c e , Warner and D e F l e u r (1969) have found t h a t the p u b l i c v e r s u s p r i v a t e n a t u r e of the b e h a v i o u r i n t e r a c t s t o a f f e c t A-B c o n s i s t e n c y , w h i l e Snyder and Swann (1976) have shown t h a t s i t u a t i o n s which i n c r e a s e d the s a l i e n c e of the r e l e v a n t a t t i t u d e s improved c o r r e s p o n d e n c e , and F a z i o and Zanna (1978; F a z i o , Zanna and Cooper, 1978) have found t h a t the l e v e l of d i r e c t e x p e r i e n c e one has w i t h the a t t i t u d i n a l o b j e c t i s r e l a t e d t o c l o s e A-B c o n s i s t e n c y . Because of t h e s e , and a c o n s i d e r a b l e number of s i m i l a r f i n d i n g s , debate has ceased as t o whether a t t i t u d e s a r e r e l a t e d t o a c t u a l a c t s . W i t h p r o p e r a t t e n t i o n p a i d t o a p p r o p r i a t e s o c i a l and s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s i t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t a t l e a s t some moderate a s s o c i a t i o n w i l l be 18 uncovered. I n t e r e s t now has t u r n e d t o f u r t h e r expanding the i n f l u e n c e s which moderate t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p , and p r e d i c t i n g when i t i s l i k e l y t o o c c u r . Much of the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h t a k e s one of t h r e e forms. In the f i r s t p l a c e e f f o r t s a r e b e i n g made t o d e l i n e a t e f u r t h e r the g e n e r a l p r e c o n d i t i o n s which may m i t i g a t e c l o s e A-B c o r r e s p o n d e n c e . These a r e t h i n g s such as the i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l and c o n t e x t u a l v a r i a b l e s j u s t d e s c r i b e d which may i n t e r a c t a t a g i v e n p o i n t w i t h a t t i t u d e t o f a c i l i t a t e or o b s t r u c t i t s b e h a v i o u r a l m a n i f e s t a t i o n s . (For r e v i e w s of v a r i o u s r e s e a r c h programs f o c u s i n g upon s p e c i f i c i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l and c o n t e x t u a l v a r i a b l e s see A b e l s o n , 1981; A j z e n , 1982; F a z i o and Zanna, 1978; Norman, 1975; Schwartz, 1977; Snyder, 1982; W i c k l u n d , 1982; or Zanna and O l s e n , 1982). As w e l l , i n v e s t i g a t o r s w o r k i ng from an a p p l i e d v e i n a r e a t t e m p t i n g t o e v a l u a t e the v i a b i l i t y of the a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h r e s p e c t t o p a r t i c u l a r t y p e s of b e h a v i o u r s and i n c o n s i d e r a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e m e t h o d o l o g i e s f o r e n c o u r a g i n g b e h a v i o u r a l change i n f r e e c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n s . From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e a l a r g e number of s t u d i e s have been performed l i n k i n g a t t i t u d e s toward b i r t h c o n t r o l w i t h f e r t i l i t y r a t e s ( e . g . , J o r g e n s e n , 1980; Ko t h a n d a p a n i , 1971; Morgan, 1970; Smetana and A d l e r , 1979; Westoff and Ryder, 1977). As w e l l , the c o n n e c t i o n between a t t i t u d e s and a c t s has been i n v e s t i g a t e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o 19 p r e j u d i c e ( L i n n , 1966; W e i t z , 1972), a l t r u i s m 2 ( e . g . , Kohn et a l . , 1982; Pomazal and J a c c a r d , 1976; S c h o f i e l d , 1975; Schwartz, 1970, 1973; Schwartz and G o t t l i e b , 1976), v o t i n g b e h a v i o u r ( F i s h b e i n , 1974; F i s h b e i n et a l . , 1980; K e l l e y and M i r e r , 1974), consumer c h o i c e (Cohen e t a l . , 1972; M o r r i s o n , 1979; W i l k i e and P e s s e m i e r , 1973), drug and a l c o h o l abuse ( S c h l e g e l , 1975; V e e v e r s , 1971), and engaging i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e b e h a v i o u r 3 ( A l t h o f f and G r i e g , 1977; Bowman and F i s h b e i n , 1978; Hancock, 1973; H a r r i s and A s s o c i a t e s , 1975; H e b e r l e i n , 1971, 1981; L e v i n s o n , 1974; Otway and F i s h b e i n , 1976, W e i g e l and Newman, 1977). The t h i r d l i n e of r e s e a r c h (termed by Zanna and F a z i o [1982] as the " t h i r d g e n e r a t i o n " of a t t i t u d i n a l r e s e a r c h ) examines the p r o c e s s of a t t i t u d e f o r m a t i o n and how c l o s e a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r c o r r e s p o n d e n c e comes about. Here r e s e a r c h e r s have s t r i v e n t o d e v e l o p and t e s t c a u s a l and p r o c e s s models i n c o r p o r a t i n g the c o n d i t i o n s under which a c t s f o l l o w d i s p o s i t i o n s . By f a r the most i n f l u e n t i a l of t h e s e models i s t h a t d e v e l o p e d by F i s h b e i n and A j z e n ( A j z e n and F i s h b e i n , 1969; 1970; 1973; 1980; F i s h b e i n , 1967). However, e x t e n s i o n s have been made by B e n t l e r and S p e c k a r t (1979), w h i l e Schwartz ( S c h w a r t z , 1977; 1978; Schwartz and T e s s l e r , 1972) has suggested an a l t e r n a t i v e model which a l s o shows 2 G i v i n g b l o o d or bone marrow, o r h e l p i n g a v i c t i m i n d i s t r e s s , f o r example. 3 Such as r e c y c l i n g , not l i t t e r i n g , p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , or c o n s e r v i n g energy. 20 good p r e d i c t a b i l i t y and g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y . R e c e n t l y , f o l l o w i n g from the concerns of A l w i n (1973), i n t e r e s t has been p a i d t o i m p r o v i n g the p r e c i s i o n of t h e s e models t h r o u g h the use of more s o p h i s t i c a t e d e s t i m a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s , w h i l e a t the same time i n c o r p o r a t i n g a d d i t i o n a l m o d e r a t i n g i n f l u e n c e s , i n c l u d i n g the e f f e c t s of time ( B a g o z z i and B u r n k r a n t , 1979; Davidson and J a c c o r d , 1979; F r e d e r i c k and Dossex, i n p r e s s ) . 1.3.4 A n a l y s i s .Goals The o b j e c t of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o advance u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p i n terms of each of the t h r e e broad c u r r e n t c o n c e r n s j u s t d e s c r i b e d . In a d d r e s s i n g the q u e s t i o n of when A-B correpondence o c c u r s the i n f l u e n c e of economic f a c t o r s i n m e d i a t i n g the A-B r e l a t i o n s h i p i s examined. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between a t t i t u d e s and economic s t i m u l i i s not w e l l u n d e r s t o o d ( J a f f e e , e t a l . , 1982). In p a r t i c u l a r i t i s u n c l e a r whether economic m o t i v a t i o n and a t t i t u d e e x e r t independent i n f l u e n c e upon b e h a v i o u r , or t h a t economic i n f l u e n c e i s mediated by — and t h e r e f o r e i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r — a t t i t u d e . I f economic c o n d i t i o n s and a t t i t u d e e x e r t independent i n f l u e n c e upon b e h a v i o u r t h e i r r e l a t i v e impacts must be a s s e s s e d s i n c e such a consequence has i m p o r t a n t p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o e n c o u r a g i n g d e s i r a b l e s o c i a l change. I f on the o t h e r hand, economic f a c t o r s 21 d etermine a t t i t u d e , then programs aimed a t c hanging a t t i t u d e s , t h r ough i n f o r m a t i o n or o t h e r means, w i l l have l i t t l e u t i l i t y from a p u b l i c p o l i c y p o i n t of view s i n c e i t i s s u f f i c i e n t t o m a n i p u l a t e d i r e c t l y economic f a c t o r s . Hence, from both a p o l i c y p e r s p e c t i v e , and i n terms of b a s i c u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the A-B r e l a t i o n s h i p , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o i n v e s t i g a t e the importance of economic c o n d i t i o n s i n m e d i a t i n g b e h a v i o u r s i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e f u r t h e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of when c l o s e A-B congruence o c c u r s . The second g o a l of t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o f u r t h e r d e l i n e a t e the r o l e of a t t i t u d e s i n e n c o u r a g i n g d e s i r a b l e b e h a v i o u r a l change i n an a p p l i e d problem a r e a . T h i s i s a c h i e v e d by s e a t i n g the a n a l y s i s i n t h e arena of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n . Ever s i n c e the 1973 OPEC o i l embargo the s o l u t i o n of energy s u p p l y problems has been one of s o c i e t y ' s most p r e v a i l i n g c o n c e r n s . Changing a t t i t u d e s t o promote c o n s e r v a t i o n has f r e q u e n t l y been c i t e d as among the most d e s i r a b l e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . However, the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t h i s s t r a t e g y has been the s u b j e c t of c o n s i d e r a b l e debate ( C a r l y l e and G e l l e r , 1978; M i l s t e i n , 1977; 1978; O l s e n , 1978). E a r l y r e s e a r c h suggested t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n about energy s h o r t a g e s and the d e l e t e r i o u s consequences of r e s o u r c e d e p l e t i o n was, by i t s e l f , i n s u f f i c i e n t t o m o t i v a t e p e o p l e t o c o n s e r v e ( H e b e r l e i n , 1975; Honnold and N e l s o n , 1978; K o h l e n b e r g , et a l . , 1976; Peck and D o e r i n g , 1975). However, l i t t l e of t h i s r e s e a r c h met the more s t r i n g e n t m e t h o d o l o g i c a l and c o n c e p t u a l s t a n d a r d s w h i c h have r e c e n t l y 22 been d e v e l o p e d t o e v a l u a t e A-B r e l a t i o n s h i p s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n has been p a i d t o exa m i n i n g a p p r o p r i a t e l e v e l s of s p e c i f i c i t y , the use of m u l t i p l e i n d i c a t o r s i n measures, or t a k i n g i n t o account i m p o r t a n t i n d i v i d u a l and s i t u a t i o n a l f a c t o r s which may mediate t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between a p p r o v i n g of c o n s e r v a t i o n a c t s and a c t u a l l y p e r f o r m i n g them. When such f a c t o r s have been c o n s i d e r e d , the r e s u l t s have been more p r o m i s i n g (Becker et a l . , 1981; B l a c k , 1978; Bowman and F i s h b e i n , 1978; H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1983b). In the r e s e a r c h b e i n g proposed i t i s i n t e n d e d t h a t a g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the r o l e of a t t i t u d e i n h e l p i n g t o promote energy s a v i n g s as a p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n t o the problem of energy s h o r t a g e s may be p r o v i d e d . The t h i r d major g o a l of t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o c a s t l i g h t upon the the p r o c e s s of a t t i t u d e f o r m a t i o n and change. T h i s w i l l be a c h i e v e d by examining l o n g i t u d i n a l d a t a c o n c e r n i n g an i s s u e -- t i m e - o f - d a y e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c i n g — about w h i c h , p r i o r t o the e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n , s u b j e c t s i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d had f o r m u l a t e d no p r i o r a t t i t u d e . That i s , such p r i c i n g i s n e i t h e r something which has r e c e i v e d wide p u b l i c i t y , nor a n y t h i n g which many consumers have had the time on which t o f o r m u l a t e an o p i n i o n . The proposed r e s e a r c h m o n i t o r s a t t i t u d e toward t i m e - o f - d a y use of e l e c t r i c i t y over a t h r e e year p e r i o d . Two waves of sur v e y d a t a examining a t t i t u d e s a r e a v a i l a b l e t o t r a c e 23 changes over t h i s p e r i o d . B e h a v i o u r a l d a t a over f o u r y e a r s r e p r e s e n t i n g p r o p o r t i o n s of household e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on peak may be r e l a t e d t o a t t i t u d e s . Usage d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r the year p r i o r t o the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s t a k i n g e f f e c t , as w e l l as f o r the summer f o l l o w i n g c o m p l e t i o n of the p r o j e c t . P ost e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption d a t a w i l l c o n s t i t u t e a c r u c i a l p a r t of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n . That i s , w h i l e i t i s now w i d e l y a c c e p t e d t h a t a t t i t u d e s do i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r , and t h i s i s u p h e l d w i t h r e s p e c t t o consumers' use of e l e c t r i c i t y by t i m e - o f - d a y ( H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1983b; B l a c k , 1978), i t i s u n c e r t a i n what changes w i l l o c cur once the economic m o t i v a t i o n f o r s h i f t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y usage i s removed. Economic t h e o r y p r e d i c t s t h a t s u b s t i t u t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y use from on- t o o f f - p e a k hours w i l l cease once the f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r d o i n g so no l o n g e r e x i s t s . A t h e o r y of a t t i t u d e s and b e h a v i o u r s , on the o t h e r hand, based upon the assumption t h a t a p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e toward r e d u c i n g peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption i s an e n d u r i n g c o g n i t i v e s t r u c t u r e i n i t i a t e d on the c e r t a i n t y t h a t i t i s e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e t o a v o i d peak e l e c t r i c i t y usage, and m o n i t o r e d by i n t e r n a l s a n c t i o n s f o r a b r o g a t i n g t h i s commitment, p r e d i c t s t h a t even i n the absence of an economic r a t i o n a l e p e o p l e w i l l c o n t i n u e t o m i n i m i z e t h e i r use of e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g the peak ho u r s . The answer t o t h i s q u e s t i o n , t o be found by l i n k i n g a t t i t u d e s t o b e h a v i o u r f o l l o w i n g c o m p l e t i o n of the r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t , 24 c o n s t i t u t e s an i m p o r t a n t t e s t of the r e l a t i o n between economic and s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r y . 1.4 T h e s i s Overview Chapter 1 i n t r o d u c e s the r e s e a r c h problem and s e t t i n g . C h a p t e r s 2 and 3, d e v e l o p i s s u e s and t h e o r e t i c a l d ebates w i t h r e s p e c t t o a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r r e s e a r c h as i t i s a p p l i e d t o t i m e - o f - d a y energy usage. In p a r t i c u l a r , Chapter 2 r e v i e w s s o c i a l s c i e n c e r e s e a r c h c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o energy c o n s e r v a t i o n from the p e r s p e c t i v e of t h r e e major approaches the s t r u c t u r a l i s t t r a d i t i o n which i s o f t e n the t o o l of p o l i c y makers, and the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e approaches r e l i e d upon by e c o n o m i s t s , s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s and s o c i o l o g i s t s . The p o i n t of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o summarize s o c i a l s c i e n c e c o n t r i b u t i o n s i n t h i s a r e a , and t o l a y the groundwork f o r the t h e o r e t i c a l models t o be d e v e l o p e d i n Chapter 3. Chapter 3 - f i r s t d e s c r i b e s the f i n d i n g s from e c o n o m e t r i c s t u d i e s on t i m e - o f - d a y e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c i n g . Then, complementary models based upon b e h a v i o u r a l and c o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y a r e d e v e l o p e d . Sometimes the p r e d i c t i o n s r e s p e c t i n g b e h a v i o u r a l change under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s from such approaches a g r e e , w h i l e a t o t h e r times they do n o t . T h i s c h a p t e r c o n c l u d e s w i t h the f o r m a l p r e s e n t a t i o n of the competing models t o be examined. 25 Chapter 4 d e s c r i b e s the methodology of the W i s c o n s i n r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t and the d a t a c o l l e c t e d . The advantages and l i m i t a t i o n s of t h i s p r o j e c t a r e d e t a i l e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o s e v e r a l d e s i g n d e c i s i o n s made i n o r d e r t o reduce b i a s and i n c r e a s e s a m p l i n g e f f i c i e n c y . As w e l l , the d a t a c o l l e c t i o n i n s t r u m e n t s and the v a r i a b l e s t o be used i n t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d . C h a p t e r s 5 and 6 p r o v i d e the f i n d i n g s . Chapter 5 f o c u s e s upon the i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d e s on b e h a v i o u r s d u r i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , as w e l l as a t t i t u d i n a l and s e l f - r e p o r t s of b e h a v i o u r a l changes f o l l o w i n g i t s c o n c l u s i o n . Chapter 6 p r e s e n t s the a n a l y s i s of response d u r i n g the f i r s t summer o f f the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s a t which p o i n t t h e r e was no l o n g e r any f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e f o r c o n t i n u e d e f f o r t s t o reduce peak consumption. In c h a p t e r 7 the t h e s i s c o n c l u d e s by d i s c u s s i n g the complementary r o l e s of a t t i t u d e s and p r i c e i n c e n t i v e s i n a f f e c t i n g b e h a v i o u r , as w e l l as d i s c u s s i n g the p r a c t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s e f i n d i n g s , and s u g g e s t i n g s e v e r a l l i n e s f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . 26 1.5 Chapter Summary In t h i s c h a p t e r an ove r v i e w of the^ r e s e a r c h problem and t h e o r e t i c a l approach has been p r o v i d e d . The a n a l y s i s has t o do w i t h consumer response t o t i m e - o f - d a y e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c i n g , an i s s u e which a t the time d a t a c o l l e c t i o n began was q u i t e u n f a m i l i a r t o the a n a l y s i s group. Thus i t p r o v i d e s the o p p o r t u n i t y t o monitor r e s p o n s e s over s e v e r a l y e a r s . Here the i n t e n t i o n i s t o examine the d u a l r o l e of a t t i t u d e s and economic i n c e n t i v e i n l e a d i n g t o b e h a v i o u r a l change. From the p o i n t of view of s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r y , economic i n c e n t i v e i s c o n c e p t u a l i z e d i n terms of the b e h a v i o u r i s t model, i n which b e h a v i o u r a l change i s seen as a f u n c t i o n of the q u a l i t y of r e i n f o r c e m e n t s r e c e i v e d . T h i s approach can be compared t o an a t t i t u d i n a l model, based upon " c o g n i t i v e " s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y , i n which m o t i v e i s , t o a degree, premised upon the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c e r t a i n c o g n i t i v e elements -- b e l i e f s , a t t i t u d e s and v a l u e s — and the d r i v e t o m a i n t a i n c o n s i s t e n c y among t h e s e e l e m e n t s . T h i s c h a p t e r has p r o v i d e d a broad o v e r v i e w of the s e i s s u e s and i d e n t i f i e d t h r e e p r i n c i p a l r e s e a r c h g o a l s . F i r s t , the i s s u e of when c l o s e a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r c o r r e s p o n d e n c e o c c u r s i s b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d by examining the r e l a t i o n s h i p which e x i s t s between p r i c e s t i m u l u s and a t t i t u d e i n l e a d i n g t o b e h a v i o u r . The i n t e n t i o n i s t o a s s e s s the l e v e l t o which t h e s e f a c t o r s complement or a r e independent of one a n o t h e r . Second, the i n v e s t i g a t i o n 27 c o n t r i b u t e s t o knowledge of the r o l e of a t t i t u d e s i n e n c o u r a g i n g energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , t h e r e b y p r o v i d i n g p o l i c y - r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n p e r t a i n i n g t o c u r r e n t energy problems. F i n a l l y , t h i s r e s e a r c h i n v e s t i g a t e s the p r o c e s s of a t t i t u d i n a l development and change. Of p a r t i c u l a r r e l e v a n c e i s the importance of a t t i t u d e i n d e t e r m i n i n g b e h a v i o u r once the economic s t i m u l u s i s removed. The r e s u l t s from t h i s e x a m i n a t i o n may p r o v i d e i m p o r t a n t i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o the q u e s t i o n of whether a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y i s subsumed or complemented by economic t h e o r y . 28 Chapter 2 THE "ENERGY CRISIS" AND STRATEGIES FOR SOCIAL CHANGE 2.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n I n t e r e s t i n the s o c i a l a s p e c t s of energy p r o d u c t i o n , consumption, and c o n s e r v a t i o n has i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y i n the p a s t decade. S h o r t a g e s , s o a r i n g p r i c e s , and p u b l i c a t t e n t i o n have s e r v e d t o u n d e r s c o r e the f i n i t e n a t u r e of f o s s i l f u e l s u p p l i e s , and a c c i d e n t s such as t h a t a t Three M i l e I s l a n d and any number of c o a l mine d i s a s t e r s s e r v e as a reminder of the dangers of f u e l p r o d u c t i o n . The s t r e s s e s of l i v i n g or w o r k i n g near power p l a n t s , the problems i n h e r e n t i n r e d u c i n g f u e l consumption, and the g e o p o l i t i c a l problems and debates i n v o l v i n g a c c e s s t o s u p p l i e s have a l l r e c e i v e d a t t e n t i o n of l a t e . T h i s c h a p t e r r e v i e w s the v a r i o u s approaches employed by s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s t o i n v e s t i g a t e energy problems. In t h i s way i t s e r v e s the . d e s c r i p t i v e f u n c t i o n of comparing the t h e o r e t i c a l bases of each s t r a t e g y , d e t a i l i n g t h e i r advantages and d i s a d v a n t a g e s , and summarizing the f i n d i n g s from some t e n y e a r s of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t i n the energy f i e l d . Thus i t p r o v i d e s an accompaniment t o the more f o r m a l t h e o r e t i c a l models t o be d e v e l o p e d i n Chapter 3. 29 F r e q u e n t l y , a l t h o u g h not a l w a y s , the e x a m i n a t i o n w i l l be aimed at s t r a t e g i e s used t o promote e l e c t r i c i t y c o n s e r v a t i o n , s i n c e t h i s i s the f o c u s of the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h . T h i s p r o c e s s can be viewed as an i n s t a n c e of i n t e n t i o n a l s o c i a l change, the g o a l of which i s t o a l t e r p a t t e r n s of s o c i a l a c t i v i t y and i n d i v i d u a l b e h a v i o u r w i t h i n h o u s e h o l d s . In r e v i e w i n g the s t r a t e g i e s a v a i l a b l e a number of i n v e s t i g a t o r s have p r o v i d e d broad c a t e g o r i e s i n t o which much of t h i s r e s e a r c h can be grouped (Cook and B e r r e n b e r g , 1981; E l l i s and G a s k e l l , 1978; H e b e r l e i n , 1975; K a t z , 1980; M c C l e l l a n d and C a n t e r , 1981; O l s e n and Goodnight, 1977; R i t c h i e e t a l . , 1981; S t e r n and Gardner, 1981). W h i l e l a b e l s and d e f i n i t i o n s v a r y , a l l t h e s e r e v i e w e r s have i m p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e d t h r e e major b e h a v i o u r s t r a t e g i e s f o r b r i n g i n g about r e d u c t i o n s i n energy c o n s u m p t i o n . 1 The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n draws h e a v i l y upon the s e p r e v i o u s r e v i e w s . 1 A f o u r t h s t r a t e g y , r e f e r r e d t o by H e b e r l e i n (1975) as the " t e c h n i c a l f i x " , r e l i e s upon t e c h n o l o g i c a l change t o a l l e v i a t e s o c i a l problems. For example, improvements t o s o l a r c e l l t e c h n o l o g y and e n g i n e e r i n g advances a l l o w i n g "deep w e l l " e x p l o r a t i o n f o r o i l and gas, b oth o f f e r p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n s t o energy s h o r t a g e s . However, no d i s c u s s i o n of t h i s s t r a t e g y i s p r o v i d e d h e r e , s i n c e the s o l u t i o n i s e n g i n e e r i n g based r a t h e r than r e l y i n g upon b e h a v i o u r a l change. 30 2.2 S t r u c t u r a l , B e h a v i o u r a l and C o g n i t i v e Approaches t o  Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n 2.1.1 S t r u c t u r a l S t r a t e g i e s A s t r u c t u r a l s t r a t e g y f o r i n d u c i n g c o n s e r v a t i o n i s a r e g u l a t o r y approach. Changes i n b e h a v i o u r a r e brought about by government i n i t i a t e d a c t i o n . I n a sense the change which o c c u r s i s compulsory s i n c e i n almost every case some form of e x t e r n a l s a n c t i o n i s a p p l i e d f o r f a i l i n g t o comply. Such s a n c t i o n s . w i l l u s u a l l y t a k e the form of l e g a l a c t i o n ; f o r example, b e i n g p r o h i b t e d a c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r m i t f o r an i m p r o p e r l y i n s u l a t e d b u i l d i n g . S t i l l , i t i s a l s o g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the freedom t o comply v a r i e s . I n c e r t a i n c a s e s r e g u l a t o r y p o l i c y may impose a s i n g l e m a n d i t o r y c o u r s e of a c t i o n ( e . g . , f u e l r a t i o n i n g ) , w h i l e f o r o t h e r s t h e r e i s an o p t i o n t o d e v i a t e ( e . g . , an e x c i s e t a x i s p a i d on f u e l i n e f f i c i e n t c a r s ) . In any c a s e , r e g u l a t i o n i n v o l v e s s e t t i n g performance s t a n d a r d s , e s t a b l i s h i n g o p e r a t i n g r u l e s , d e v i s i n g a l l o c a t i o n schemes, or o t h e r w i s e m o d i f y i n g the s t r u c t u r a l framework w i t h i n which p e o p l e a c t . A c o n s i d e r a b l e number of t h e s e programs, i n c l u d i n g the 55 m.p.h. speed l i m i t i n the U.S., e f f i c i e n c y s t a n d a r d s f o r a u t o m o b i l e s , maximum/minimum temp e r a t u r e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r p u b l i c b u i l d i n g s , e f f i c i e n c y r a t i n g s f o r e l e c t r i c a p p l i a n c e s , p r i o r i t y r a n k i n g s f o r n a t u r a l gas d e l i v e r i e s , and e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s on f u e l and n a t u r a l gas, have been implemented i n N o r t h America and Europe over the pa s t s e v e r a l y e a r s . 31 The major problem of the s t r u c t u r a l , or r e g u l a t o r y , approach i s t h a t i n o r d e r t o work i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n must a l s o i n c l u d e p r o c e d u r e s f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , s u r v e i l l a n c e and enforcement. These add g r e a t l y t o the o v e r a l l c o s t of the program and, as w e l l , open o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r the abuse of power, c o r r u p t i o n , d i s c r i m i n a t i o n and e x p l o i t a t i o n . Morever, such programs must be s i m u l t a n e o u s l y e f f e c t i v e , manageable and e q u i t a b l e . Even r e c o u r s e t o l e g a l a c t i o n may not compel c o n f o r m i t y i f the p u b l i c d i s a p p r o v e s of a proposed c o u r s e , as was the c a s e , f o r example, w i t h m a n d i t o r y sea t b e l t laws i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , the g r e a t e r the c o s t or i n c o n v e n i e n c e of a r e g u l a t i o n , the l e s s p u b l i c s u p p o r t i t w i l l r e c e i v e , the more c o s t l y i t w i l l be t o implement, and the l e s s e f f e c t i v e i t w i l l be i n i t s i n t e n d e d aims ( B a r t e l l , 1974). I t i s f o r t h i s reason t h a t the most d r a s t i c of the r e g u l a t o r y measures f o r energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , f u e l r a t i o n i n g , has never been l o o k e d upon p o s i t i v e l y by p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , and has never been w i d e l y implemented (Olsen and G oodnight, 1977). 32 2.2.2 B e h a v i o u r a l S t r a t e g i e s B e h a v i o u r a l s t r a t e g i e s a r e d e f i n e d as those which use i n f l u e n c e t o a c h i e v e c o m p l i a n c e w i t h d e s i r e d forms of a c t i o n (Olsen and Goodnight, 1977; E l l i s and G a s k e l l , 1978). Such i n f l u e n c e may take s e v e r a l forms, but the two most p r e v a l e n t uses of t h i s s t r a t e g y have been i n p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l inducements and t h r o u g h feedback. By t h e s e means the i n t e n t i o n has been t o make c o n s e r v a t i o n r e w a r d i n g , e i t h e r i n a d i r e c t f i n a n c i a l sense or t h r o u g h g a i n s of s o c i a l a p p r o v a l . There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e e v i d e n c e t h a t i n the s h o r t term such methods are s u c c e s s f u l (Cook and B e r r e n b e r g , 1981; M c C l e l l a n d and C a n t e r , 1981; McDougall et a l . , 1981). E s t i m a t i o n s of r e d u c t i o n s i n consumption from t h e s e s t u d i e s have ranged between f i v e and t h i r t y p e r c e n t . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the p r o v i s i o n of the d e s i r e d b e h a v i o u r s i s c o n t i n g e n t upon rewards b e i n g f p r t h c o m i n g . Kelman (1961) has c a l l e d such b e h a v i o u r " c o m p l i a n c e " , d e s c r i b i n g i t as i n s t r u m e n t a l and not i n v o l v i n g " i n t e r n a l i z a t i o n " of s o c i a l i n f l u e n c e . Such b e h a v i o u r s a r e dependent upon the c o n t i n u i n g p r e s e n c e of c e r t a i n e x t e r n a l c o n t i n g e n c i e s and w i l l become e x t i n c t once th e s e c e a s e . S i m i l a r l y , S t e r n and K i r k p a t r i c k (1979) a s s e r t t h a t p a y i n g p e o p l e t o c o n s e r v e o n l y compounds the problem, s i n c e c o n s e r v a t i o n then becomes dependent upon e x t e r n a l m o t i v e s . They quote e v i d e n c e from t h e i r own l a b o r a t o r y s t u d i e s i n 33 support of t h i s . A second argument a g a i n s t b e h a v i o u r a l s t r a t e g i e s i s t h a t t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e e v i d e n c e showing t h a t p e o p l e adapt t o h i g h e r p r i c e s . Hence the impact of r i s i n g p r i c e s i s c o n s e q u e n t l y reduced over t i m e . O v e r a l l , t h e r e f o r e , the l o n g term i n f l u e n c e of e x t e r n a l r e i n f o r c e m e n t i s i n doubt ( E l l i s and G a s k e l l , 1978: 3 9 ) . Economic I n c e n t i v e s P r o v i d i n g rewards f o r c o n s e r v i n g energy i s a b e h a v i o u r i s t s t r a t e g y used by both p s y c h o l o g i s t s and e c o n o m i s t s . The o b j e c t i v e i s the same: by m a n i p u l a t i n g the t a n g i b l e consequences of b e h a v i o u r i t i s f e l t t h a t a c t s l e a d i n g t o reduced consumption w i l l be f a v o u r e d by the p u b l i c . E c o n o m i s t s , however, have been more i n t e r e s t e d i n measuring the degree of response a t t a c h e d t o the s i z e of the economic i n c e n t i v e , w h i l e p s y c h o l o g i s t s have been more i n c l i n e d t o r e g a r d the b a s i c f a c t of the reward t o be m o t i v a t i n g . In f a c t , i n a r e v i e w of p s y c h o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s employing monetary r e b a t e s f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n , W i n e t t and N e a l (1979) c o n c l u d e d t h a t the s i z e of rewards used t o a c h i e v e r e d u c t i o n s i n domestic e l e c t r i c i t y use of 15 and 30 p e r c e n t have been e q u i v a l e n t t o p r i c e changes of s e v e r a l hundred p e r c e n t . B a t t a l i o e t a l . (1979) p r o v i d e s i m i l a r f i n d i n g s , and L o r p r e a t o e t a l . (1976) found a 40 p e r c e n t p r i c e change i n e l e c t r i c i t y b i l l s was needed b e f o r e any s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n s o c c u r r e d . From the s t a n d p o i n t of economic t h e o r y such responses are v e r y s l i g h t . 34 In measuring response, e c o n o m i s t s a p p l y the concept of demand e l a s t i c i t y : P e r centage Change i n Demand E l a s t i c i t y = P e r centage Change i n P r i c e T h i s e s t i m a t e s the degree t o which demand f o r a p a r t i c u l a r good or s e r v i c e i s r e s p o n s i v e t o p r i c e changes; i t i s the p e r c e n t a g e change i n q u a n t i t y of demand t h a t c o u l d be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a one p e r c e n t change i n i t s p r i c e . Thus an e l a s t i c i t y of -1.00 i n d i c a t e s t h a t f o r each p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e t h e r e s h o u l d be a d e c r e a s e i n consumption of one p e r c e n t . In o r d e r t o d e r i v e t h i s e s t i m a t e f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , v a r i o u s demand models have been d e v e l o p e d ( A c t o n , M i t c h e l l and M o w e l l , 1976; Anderson, 1973; F i s h e r and Kaysen, 1972; H a l v o r s e n , 1976; J a f f e e , e t a l . , 1982; P a r t i and P a r t i , 1980; W i l d e r and W i l l e n b o r g , 1975; W i l s o n , 1971). These models share common assu m p t i o n s . In g e n e r a l i t i s p o s i t e d t h a t the q u a n t i t y of any good or s e r v i c e consumed i s a f u n c t i o n of the p r i c e of the good, income, and the p r i c e s f o r a l l o t h e r goods t o be consumed. Hence the i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y a t a p o i n t i n time i s d e t e r m i n e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y w i t h the demand f o r a l l o t h e r goods and s e r v i c e s consumed. S y m b o l i c a l l y , t h i s can be r e p r e s e n t e d a s : 35 q = f (x,p ,p , ,p ) 1 2 n where q denotes the q u a n t i t y of the commodity consumed, x r e f e r s t o income, and p , p , ,p r e p r e s e n t the p r i c e s 1 2 n a l l competing goods of which t h e r e are n goods a v a i l a b l e i n the m a r k e t p l a c e . A l l t h i s i s m o t i v a t e d by a n e o c l a s s i c a l t h e o r y of consumer b e h a v i o u r , where the consumer maximizes a u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n (or p r e f e r e n c e ) f o r a v a i l a b l e goods f o r which consumption l e v e l s a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by the household's w e a l t h or a v a i l a b l e income. Where models have v a r i e d i s w i t h r e s p e c t t o what a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s a r e i n c l u d e d i n the e q u a t i o n . T a y l o r (1975), i n an i m p o r t a n t a r t i c l e , c o r r e c t e d a major f l a w i n e a r l i e r t h e o r i z i n g by p o i n t i n g out t h a t demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y o c c u r s i n two s t a g e s . The f i r s t s t age encompasses the l o n g - r u n demand f o r s e r v i c e s from a s t o c k of a p p l i a n c e s which employ energy as an i n p u t . I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t the s p e c i f i c outcome of the l o n g - r u n d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s ( i . e . , the a p p l i a n c e s t o c k i t s e l f ) w i l l be a f f e c t e d by such f a c t o r s as h o u s e h o l d income, a p p l i a n c e p r i c e s , and the p r i c e s of v a r i o u s s o u r c e s of energy. The second s t a g e of the p r o c e s s d e t e r m i n e s the demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y w h i l e encompassing the s h o r t - t e r m d e c i s i o n s which a f f e c t the u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e of an e x i s t i n g m e c h a n i c a l s t o c k . Hence, a t t h i s s tage the a p p l i a n c e s t o c k and o t h e r demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of households a r e assumed t o be f i x e d and employed as p r e d e t e r m i n e d v a r i a b l e s 36 i n the e s t i m a t i o n e q u a t i o n . V a r i o u s of the s e " s h o r t - t e r m " models have been devel o p e d and used t o e s t i m a t e demand e l a s t i c i t y (Granger e t a l . , 1977; J a f f e e , e t a l . , 1982; Hieronymus and Hughes, 1977). As w e l l , t h e r e have been o t h e r r e f i n e m e n t s t o the g e n e r a l model, t h e r e b y g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t i n g i t s a c t u a l e m p i r i c a l u t i l i t y . These i n c l u d e d a " s e p a r a b i l i t y f u n c t i o n " (Lawrence and B r a i t h w a i t , 1977) i n o r d e r t h a t the r e s t r i c t i o n of " a l l o t h e r competing goods" can be f r e e d , as w e l l as a " c o n s t r a i n e d model" (Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n , 1978) which does not i n c l u d e h o u s e h o l d income i n the e q u a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o H i l l et a l . (1979: 2 / 7 — 2 / 1 4 ) , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t the wide range of e s t i m a t e s i n demand e l a s t i c i t y which have been r e p o r t e d a r e due t o these debates over model s p e c i f i c a t i o n . O l s e n and Goodnight (1977) r e p o r t e l a s t i c i t y e s t i m a t e s from e c o n o m e t r i c s t u d i e s d u r i n g the 1972-73 p e r i o d i n the U.S. r a n g i n g between -0.67 and -2.00 f o r h o u s e h o l d f u e l consumption, w i t h e l a s t i c i t y f o r e l e c t r i c i t y b e i n g g e n e r a l l y h i g h e r than f o r g a s o l i n e . S t e r n and Gardner (1981) suggest t h a t r e s u l t s from post-1973 e c o n o m e t r i c s t u d i e s s h o u l d l e a d t o t h e s e e s t i m a t e s b e i n g a d j u s t e d downward. For example, E l l i s and G a s k e l l (1979) c i t e s t u d i e s s u g g e s t i n g the r e l a t i v e i n e l a s t i c i t y of demand f o r g a s o l i n e , and Win e t t and N e a l e ' s (1979) review of the s t u d i e s by b e h a v i o u r a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s s u g g e s t s h o u s e h o l d 37 response t o r i s i n g p r i c e s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y t o be o n l y about -0.1. The r e s e a r c h by b e h a v i o u r a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s i n t o the e f f e c t s of p r i c e on c o n s e r v a t i o n d i f f e r s from t h a t of e c o n o m i s t s i n more o f t e n employing the e x p e r i m e n t a l method, r a t h e r than time s e r i e s or c r o s s s e c t i o n a l p r o c e d u r e s . T h i s may be t h e i r major c o n t r i b u t i o n s i n c e , as W i n e t t (1976) p o i n t s o u t , t h e s e are r e a l l y i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n t o m i croeconomics w i t h the advantage t h a t the e f f e c t s of p r i c e on demand can be more s t r i c t l y m o n i t o r e d . These s t u d i e s , which p r o v i d e f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e s f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n e i t h e r t h r o u g h r e b a t e s on b i l l s , p r i z e s , or the a v o i d a n c e of p e n a l t i e s , have almost always r e p o r t e d s u c c e s s ( B a t t a l i o , e t a l . , 1979; Hayes and Cone, 1977; M c C l e l l a n d and Cook, 1980; M c N e i l and H u t t o n , 1981; Walker, 1979; W i n e t t , 1978; W i n e t t , e t a l . , 1978). N e v e r t h e l e s s , M c C l e l l a n d and Canter (1981) c l a i m t h a t t h e r e s p o n s e s have been u n i f o r m l y s m a l l and s h o r t l i v e d . The p r a c t i c a l i t y of such p r o c e d u r e s i s a l s o i n q u e s t i o n . I t may not always be p o s s i b l e t o reward p e o p l e f i n a n c i a l l y f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n , and i t i s w i d e l y a c c e p t e d among s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s t h a t the obverse of t h i s , p e n a l t i e s f o r f a i l i n g t o comply, a r e l e s s s u c c e s s f u l than p o s i t i v e r e i n f o r c e m e n t s f o r m o d i f y i n g b e h a v i o u r . As w e l l , from a p u b l i c p o l i c y s t a n d p o i n t , the s i z e of the f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e needed t o b r i n g about a m e a n i n g f u l response i n o r d e r t o overcome energy s u p p l y s h o r t f a l l s may s i m p l y be t o o e x c e s s i v e t o be f e a s i b l e . 38 There are o t h e r drawbacks t o p r o p o s a l s which advocate f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e s / d i s i n c e n t i v e s as p o l i c y . In the f i r s t p l a c e , d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the a p p r o p r i a t e t a r i f f t o b r i n g about the optimum l e v e l of c o n s e r v a t i o n assumes t h a t a l l the s o c i a l c o s t s of energy consumption a r e known. That i s , e c o n o m i s t s argue t h a t p r i c e s h o u l d r e f l e c t the t r u e s o c i a l c o s t s embedded i n the v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r the use of energy r e s o u r c e s such t h a t s o c i e t y i s compensated f o r a l l e n v i r o n m e n t a l impacts and e x t e r n a l i t e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each. In o t h e r words, p r i c e , i n an i d e a l sense w i l l p r o v i d e a c t u a l compensation i n a l l i t s forms t o s o c i e t y f o r whatever c h o i c e s consumers make. On t h i s b a s i s the problem of c o n s e r v a t i o n i s s o l v e d s i n c e no i n a p p r o p r i a t e s u b s i d i z a t i o n of non-renewable energy r e s o u r c e s o c c u r s . In p r a c t i c e , however, t h i s i s not p o s s i b l e s i n c e we a r e s t i l l f a r from e s t a b l i s h i n g m e t h o d o l o g i e s which p e r f e c t l y e s t i m a t e s o c i a l c o s t s , or even r e c o g n i z e what many of them a r e . S e c o n d l y , t h e r e i s a l s o much e v i d e n c e t h a t p u b l i c s e n t i m e n t does not s u p p o r t p r i c e i n c r e a s e s ( L o p r e a t o and M e r i w e t h e r , 1976). T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y the c a s e when i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t i n c r e a s e s a r e s o l e y t o promote c o n s e r v a t i o n , and do not t r u l y r e p r e s e n t the p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s of e l e c t r i c i t y . T h i s problem i s a g g r a v a t e d by the f a c t t h a t t h e r e a p p e a r s t o be a t h r e s h o l d l e v e l below which demand i s v e r y i n s e n s i t i v e t o s m a l l i n c r e a s e s i n p r i c e . In o t h e r words, i n o r d e r f o r p r i c e i n c r e a s e s t o be e f f e c t i v e , they must a l s o be s i z e a b l e . 39 As w e l l , t h e r e a r e many ty p e s of energy consumption which a r e r e l a t i v e l y i m p e r v i o u s t o changes i n p r i c e . For example, w h i l e the c o s t of consumer goods must i n c l u d e energy c o s t s e n c ountered d u r i n g t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n , changes i n these which a f f e c t p r i c e a r e i n v i s i b l e t o the consumer. Another problem i s r e f e r r e d t o by Hayes (1976: 63) as the "boomerang e f f e c t " . Here, s a v i n g s made by consumers t h r o u g h energy c o n s e r v a t i o n a r e used t o purchase new consumer goods, the p r o d u c t i o n of which r e q u i r e a d d i t i o n a l energy i n p u t s . F i n a l l y , i t i s c l e a r t h a t p r i c i n g s t r a t e g i e s a r e i n e q u i t a b l e . R i s i n g p r i c e s h i t the poor h a r d e s t (see re v i e w s by Olse n and Goodnight, 1977; S c h n a i b e r g , 1975; or Sch w a r t z , 1977). S i n c e they a l r e a d y consume l e s s energy, own fewer a p p l i a n c e s , and use the s e more o f t e n f o r n e c e s s i t i e s , the poor a r e l e s s a b l e t o respond t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e s through c o n s e r v a t i o n . Feedback S t u d i e s The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of a second b e h a v i o u r i s t s t r a t e g y , feedback, i n l e a d i n g t o r e d u c t i o n s i n energy consumption has been s u b j e c t e d t o a s e r i e s of r e c e n t e x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d i e s ( B e c k e r , 1978; Hayes and Cone, 1977; K o h l e n b e r g , e t a l . , 1976; P a l l a k and Cummings, 1976; Palmer, et a l . , 1978; Seaver and P a t t e r s o n , 1976; Seligman and D a r l e y , 1977; Sel i g m a n , D a r l e y and B e c k e r , 1976; W i n e t t and N e a l e , 1979; W i n e t t , e t a l . , 1978). The b a s i s f o r t h i s approach r e s t s upon the s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r y of r e i n f o r c e m e n t or 40 operant l e a r n i n g . I t i s one of the b e s t e s t a b l i s h e d f i n d i n g s i n p s y c h o l o g y t h a t feedback or knowledge of r e s u l t s has a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on i m p r o v i n g performance (Ammons, 1956; A n n e t t , 1969; Bandura, 1977; B i l o d e a u and B i l o d e a u , 1961). The t h e o r e t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s approach t o energy c o n s e r v a t i o n has been p r o v i d e d by E l l i s and G a s k e l l (1978) and Seligman et a l . (1981) who g i v e s e v e r a l reasons why i t s h o u l d work: 1) i t teaches p e o p l e how t o make a p p r o p r i a t e c o n s e r v a t i o n r e s p o n s e s ; 2) i t rewards a p p r o p r i a t e c o n s e r v a t i o n b e h a v i o u r s , t h e r e b y i n c r e a s i n g the l i k e l i h o o d of t h e i r b e i n g r e p e a t e d ; 3) i t m o t i v a t e s p e o p l e t o save energy; and 4) i t p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l can use t o e v a l u a t e h i s or her performance w i t h r e g a r d t o an e x p l i c i t or i m p l i c i t g o a l (Seligman e t a l . , 1981: 100). Thus the b a s i s f o r t h i s approach i s not o n l y t o p r o v i d e a s i g n a l of monetary s a v i n g s , but a l s o t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o how the h o usehold energy system o p e r a t e s i n response t o b e h a v i o u r a l a c t i o n s . Feedback s t u d i e s on energy consumption have v a r i e d on s e v e r a l d i m e n s i o n s . These i n c l u d e the medium of communication ( e . g . , i n w r i t i n g or v i a v i s u a l d i s p l a y ) ; the terms of the u n i t employed ( e . g . , k i l o w a t t hours per month or a d o l l a r and c e n t s c o s t per h o u r ) ; the s e l e c t i o n of b a s e l i n e comparisons ( e . g . , one's own consumption i n the p a s t or the consumption of o t h e r s d u r i n g the same p e r i o d ) ; and the f r e q u e n c y of r e i n f o r c e m e n t ( e . g . , monthly, d a i l y , or c o n t i n u o u s ) . W h i l e r e v i e w e r s (Cook and B e r r e n b e r g , 1981; 41 E l l i s and G a s k e l l , 1978; S e l i g m a n , et a l . , 1977/78) c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e r e have g e n e r a l l y been s h o r t - t e r m s a v i n g s i n the range of 10 t o 20 p e r c e n t over p r e v i o u s use, and o c c a s i o n a l l y as h i g h as 30 p e r c e n t (Winett e t a l . , 1980), i t i s s t r e s s e d t h a t i n o r d e r t o be e f f e c t i v e feedback must a t t r a c t a t t e n t i o n and be i n t e r p r e t a b l e t o the consumer (Cook and B e r r e n b e r g , 1981: 9 7 ) . Important f a c t o r s a r e the immediacy, s p e c i f i c i t y , f r e q u e n c y , d u r a t i o n and form of i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e t o the user i n m o n i t o r i n g h i s or her energy use. The d i s a d v a n t a g e s of feedback r e s t upon i t s p r a c t i c a l i t y and l o n g term e f f e c t s . I t i s a fundamental premise i n b e h a v i o u r a l p s y c h o l o g y t h a t i n o r d e r t o be e f f e c t i v e r e i n f o r c e m e n t must be c l e a r and immediate. O f t e n i n energy r e s e a r c h on feedback the means employed t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n t o consumers on t h e i r b e h a v i o u r s would not be p r a c t i c a l on a system-wide b a s i s . 2 F u r t h e r , w i t h energy consumption the consequences of a c t i o n s i n terms of amounts of energy used or money spent i s not i m m e d i a t e l y a p p a r e n t . E l e c t r i c b i l l s r e c e i v e d on a monthly or b i m o n t h l y b a s i s do not p r o v i d e the o p p o r t u n i t y of r e l a t i n g i n d i v i d u a l b e h a v i o u r s t o the c o s t s of energy and, as w e l l , i n most c a s e s p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n which i s c o n f u s i n g t o consumers 2 For example, Seligman and D a r l e y (1977) p o s t e d a s i g n each day o u t s i d e k i t c h e n windows showing the hou s e h o l d ' s p r e v i o u s day's e l e c t r i c i t y use, and W i n e t t , Neale and G r i e r (1978) r e a d meters and hand d e l i v e r e d n o t i c e s e v e r y day f o r t w e n t y - e i g h t days on the hou s e h o l d ' s energy consumption. 42 ( B a l d w i n , 1977). In o r d e r f o r feedback t o be e f f e c t i v e i t has been suggested t h a t households s h o u l d be equipped w i t h c e n t r a l l y l o c a t e d m o n i t o r i n g d e v i c e s which p r o v i d e immediate i n f o r m a t i o n ( p r e f e r a b l y i n monetary terms) t o the consumer based on i n d i v i d u a l a c t s ( S e l i g m a n , D a r l e y and Becker, 1981). W h i l e d e v i c e s a l o n g t h e s e l i n e s c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d , t h e i r p urchase and i n s t a l l a t i o n w i l l add t o the c o s t of energy and they have not been w i d e l y implemented. 3 The o t h e r problem w i t h feedback r e l a t e s t o i t s l o n g term e f f e c t s . Here the c o n c e r n i s t h a t once the feedback ceases l e v e l s of consumption w i l l r e v e r t t o former l e v e l s . S i n c e feedback may l o s e i t s e f f e c t a f t e r the n o v e l t y wears o f f ( H e l s o n , 1958; W i n e t t and N e a l e , 1979) i t may be e s s e n t i a l t h a t the b e h a v i o u r g u i d e d by the feedback be s u s t a i n e d by r e w a r d i n g consequences ( e . g . , f i n a n c i a l , s o c i a l ) . C o n v e r s e l y , t o the e x t e n t t h a t the consequences i n c l u d e d i s c o m f o r t , e f f o r t , i n i t i a l f i n a n c i a l o u t l a y s , and 3 S t i l l i t has been suggested (Seligman e t a l . , 1981) t h a t the s a v i n g s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o feedback c o u l d more than pay f o r such d e v i c e s over t i m e . In a d d i t i o n , consumers may be w i l l i n g t o read t h e i r own meters and m o n i t o r t h e i r own consumption w i t h o u t the expense of s p e c i a l feedback d e v i c e s . S t u d i e s by W i n e t t , Neale and G r i e r (1978) and P a l l a k e t a l . (1980) i n d i c a t e moderate c o n s e r v a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from such s e l f - m o n i t o r i n g t e c h i n q u e s . 43 are not compensated by p o s i t i v e consequences, the c e s s a t i o n of c o n s e r v a t i o n a c t i o n s i s a l l the more l i k e l y . " A study by K o h l e n b e r g et a l . (1976) p r o v i d e s some ev i d e n c e of t h i s i n r e l a t i o n t o t i m e - o f - u s e demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y . Households were s u b j e c t t o a q u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n which combined i n c e n t i v e s and feedback over a t h r e e month p e r i o d w h i l e consumption d u r i n g peak demand p e r i o d s was m o n i t o r e d . The f i n d i n g s showed feedback a l o n e and feedback combined w i t h f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e s both t o be e f f e c t i v e i n r e d u c i n g peak demand. However, once t h e s e r e i n f o r c e m e n t s were d i s c o n t i n u e d households r e t u r n e d w i t h i n a s h o r t time (2 weeks) t o t h e i r 4 On the o t h e r hand, E l l i s and G a s k e l l (1978) argue t h a t i f the p r e s e n t a t i o n of feedback combines t o b o t h i n c r e a s e u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e o p e r a t i o n of the h o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s t o c k and p r o v i d e s rewards ( e . g . , s a v i n g s ) , b e h a v i o u r s w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d even a f t e r feedback i s e l i m i n a t e d . W h i l e t h e i r r e view of the l i t e r a t u r e does not demonstrate t h i s , they s t r e s s t h a t t h e reason f o r t h e apparent l a c k of l o n g - t e r m e f f e c t s i s because the l e a r n i n g dimension of feedback has been i g n o r e d . 5 The g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the s e f i n d i n g s i s d i f f i c u l t , however, because p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the experiment was v o l u n t a r y and the sample s i z e s m a l l (N=3). On the o t h e r hand, these households were drawn from membership i n an e n v i r o n m e n t a l group and i t c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t h a t , b e i n g commited t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n , they would c o n t i n u e t o reduce peak consumption even when the e x t e r n a l r e i n f o r c e m e n t s ended. 44 former consumption l e v e l s . 5 2.2.3 C o g n i t i v e Approaches C o g n i t i v e approaches t o b e h a v i o u r a l change f o c u s upon ch a n g i n g b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s i n a n t i c i p a t i o n t h a t b e h a v i o u r c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e s e v i e w s w i l l f o l l o w . An i m p o r t a n t d i s t i n c t i o n such an approach has w i t h b e h a v i o u r i s t s t r a t e g i e s i s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the s t r e s s w h i c h i s p l a c e d upon the c o n t e n t of the i n f o r m a t i o n which i s p r o v i d e d v e r s u s the method by which i n f o r m a t i o n i s communicated. B e h a v i o u r i s t approaches r e l y on method t o change b e h a v i o u r d i r e c t l y t h r ough a p p l i c a t i o n of rewards and punishment. C o g n i t i v e s t r a t e g i e s r e l y on c o n t e n t t o change views u s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e r e b y l e a d i n g t o changes i n b e h a v i o u r . Over the l a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s , a v a r i e t y of s t u d i e s have i n v e s t i g a t e d the r e l a t i o n s between a t t i t u d e s and energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , but o n l y a few of t h e s e have met the c r i t e r i o n of h a v i n g employed a c o g n i t i v e model from s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y . That i s , a number of s u r v e y s have a s s e s s e d " a t t i t u d e s " about energy b u t , by and l a r g e , t h e s e have been g e n e r a l l y d e s c r i p t i v e o p i n i o n p o l l s e v a l u a t i n g the e f f e c t s of p u b l i c i t y p r o v i d e d by the media, government and o t h e r s o u r c e s . A c c o r d i n g t o r e v i e w e r s ( F a r h a r , 1979; M i l s t e i n , 1978; O l s e n , 1981; O l s e n and G o o d n i g h t , 1977) t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s demonstrated by t h e s e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s have not 45 been p o s i t i v e . That i s , w h i l e p e o p l e p r o f e s s a concern over energy problems and a w i l l i n g n e s s t o c o n s e r v e , the e v i d e n c e r e l a t i n g t h e s e t o a c t u a l a c t s has been e i t h e r n e g a t i v e or i n c o n c l u s i v e ( f o r examples see C u r t i n , 1976; G l a d h a r t , Z u i c h e s and M o r r i s o n , 1978; G o t t l i e b , 1978; Honnold and N e l s o n , 1976; N i e t z e l and W i n e t t , 1977; Peck and D o e r i n g , 1976; Z u i c h e s and M o r r i s o n , 1978). On the o t h e r hand, s e v e r a l s t u d i e s have f o c u s e d s p e c i f i c a l l y upon the a f f e c t i v e and e v a l u a t i v e components of a t t i t u d e and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h energy c o n s e r v a t i o n . U s u a l l y , a l t h o u g h not a l w a y s , the r e s u l t s have been more e n c o u r a g i n g . Here an i m p o r t a n t d i s t i n c t i o n i s between s t u d i e s which have atte m p t e d t o a l t e r a t t i t u d e s and those which r e l a t e e x i s t i n g a t t i t u d e s t o c o n s e r v a t i o n . S e v e r a l s t u d i e s have demonstrated t h i s l a t t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p . For example, Bowman and F i s h b e i n (1978) found s u p p o r t f o r the F i s h b e i n model of b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n i n p r e d i c t i n g v o t e r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g on an energy b a l l o t . As w e l l , Seligman e t a l . (1979) found t h a t b e l i e f s toward p e r s o n a l comfort and h e a l t h dependent upon a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g a ccounted f o r 30 p e r c e n t of the v a r i a n c e i n summer e l e c t r i c a l demand of pe o p l e l i v i n g i n i d e n t i c a l h o u s i n g i n Twin R i v e r s , New J e r s e y . On one, but not a n o t h e r , a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the a t t i t u d e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a n c e was a t t r i b u t a b l e t o two o t h e r f a c t o r s , r e p r e s e n t i n g the b e l i e f s t h a t c o n s e r v a t i o n was an easy way t o save money, and t h a t p e r s o n a l e f f o r t s would have an impact on n a t i o n a l 46 consumption. These f i n d i n g s , somewhat l e s s pronounced, have been d u p l i c a t e d i n a f o l l o w u p study of w i n t e r energy demand (Becker e t a l . , 1981). Of even g r e a t e r r e l e v a n c e t o the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h are f i n d i n g s from two s t u d i e s from the same t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t b e i n g r e p o r t e d h e r e . B l a c k (1978) compared the i n f l u e n c e of the F i s h b e i n model of b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n s ( Ajzen and F i s h b e i n , 1969; 1970; 1973; F i s h b e i n , 1967; F i s h b e i n and A j z e n , 1975) w i t h S c h w a r t z ' s norm a c t i v a t i o n model ( S c h w a r t z , 1968a; 1968b; 1973; 1977; 1978) i n l e a d i n g t o r e d u c t i o n s i n on peak e l e c t r i c i t y usage d u r i n g the e a r l y s t a g e s of t h i s f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t . He found t h a t b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n s and p e r s o n a l norms t o s h i f t e l e c t r i c a l demand p r e d i c t e d a c t u a l s h i f t s i n demand d u r i n g the f i r s t summer under the new r a t e s . As w e l l , h i s e v i d e n c e shows t h a t p e r s o n a l norms t o use e l e c t r i c i t y o f f - p e a k a r e a f u n c t i o n of the major v a r i a b l e s p o s t u l a t e d by S c h w a r t z , namely awareness of the n e g a t i v e consequences t o o t h e r s from peak e l e c t r i c i t y use, and a s c r i p t i o n of r e p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e s e consequences t o one's own p e r s o n a l use of e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g peak t i m e s . T h i s r e s e a r c h suggests t h a t a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s mediate the e f f e c t s of o t h e r s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s of h o u s e h o l d s ( e . g . , home s i z e , a p p l i a n c e s , e t c . ) and the sociodemographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f a m i l i e s . 47 As w e l l , a l a t e r s tudy of the same sample by H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b) p r o v i d e s e a r l y e v i d e n c e of the e f f e c t s of p r i c e and a t t i t u d e on b e h a v i o u r . T h i s r e s e a r c h found h i g h e r on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o s r e s u l t e d i n l e s s on-peak usage ( b e t a = -0.15, p < . 0 0 l ) , but t h a t an a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e r e p r e s e n t i n g p s y c h o l o g i c a l commitment had a l a r g e r impact on b e h a v i o u r than p r i c e ( b e t a = -0.33, P<0.001). These two f a c t o r s were l a r g e l y independent. As w e l l , those households w i t h a commitment t o s h i f t d i d so even a t the low p r i c e r a t i o , and those w i t h h i g h e r l e v e l s of knowledge about the t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s t r u c t u r e and knew how t o s h i f t consumption t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s were a l s o more l i k e l y t o have a p e r s o n a l commitment t o s h i f t . Only t o a moderate degree were h i g h e r p r i c e r a t i o s r e l a t e d t o knowledge, and 48 o n l y i n d i r e c t l y t o a t t i t u d e . 6 A t t i t u d e Change Promoting a t t i t u d i n a l change f o l l o w e d by c o n s e r v i n g b e h a v i o u r s has been more d i f f i c u l t t o a c h i e v e than r e l a t i n g e x i s t i n g a t t i t u d e s t o b e h a v i o u r s . In an e a r l y study H e b e r l e i n (1975) sent l e t t e r s t o r e s i d e n t s of an apartment complex c o n t a i n i n g a p p e a l s based upon S c h w a r t z ' s model of norm a c t i v a t i o n , and which emphasized the consequences of u s i n g e l e c t r i c i t y and the i n d i v i d u a l ' s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e s e e f f e c t s . However, whether the l e t t e r argued e i t h e r f o r i n c r e a s e s or d e c r e a s e s i n usage, t h e r e was no apparent 6 The f o r e g o i n g r e s e a r c h has i m p o r t a n t r e l e v a n c e t o the i n v e s t i g a t i o n b e i n g conducted h e r e . I t i s a c c u r a t e t o r e g a r d the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h as an e x t e n s i o n of t h e s e two e a r l i e r a n a l y s e s . B l a c k (1978) p r o v i d e s e v i d e n c e of the r e l a t i o n between b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n and the p e r s o n a l norm, and of the e f f e c t s of t h e s e on b e h a v i o u r d u r i n g the i n i t i a l phase of the e x p e r i m e n t . H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b) p r o v i d e a t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s f o r the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of i n t e n t i o n s and the p e r s o n a l norm i n c o m b i n a t i o n as the c o n a t i v e a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e , and show i t s r e l a t i o n w i t h p r i c e a t a l a t e r p e r i o d d u r i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . Now the i n v e s t i g a t i o n t u r n s t o e x t e n d i n g these f i n d i n g s i n t h r e e ways: 1) through the e x a m i n a t i o n of a t t i t u d i n a l commitment l o n g i t u d i n a l l y , 2) by examining a t t i t u d i n a l development and i t s i n f l u e n c e on b e h a v i o u r i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the e f f e c t s of p r i c e over t i m e , and 3)° by comparing the l o n g - t e r m e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e i n the absence of a p r i c e i n c e n t i v e . 49 e f f e c t on l e v e l s of energy consumption. Perhaps the s i n g l e l e t t e r from an unknown source used i n t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o v i d e d an i n s u f f i c i e n t b a s i s f o r norm a c t i v a t i o n ( S t e r n and Gardner, 1979: 13). Whatever the r e a s o n , the f i n d i n g s a r e i n l i n e w i t h much o t h e r r e s e a r c h (not s t r i c t l y s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l ) which has a c h i e v e d l i t t l e s u c c e s s i n changing b e h a v i o u r through w r i t t e n or v e r b a l p e r s u a s i v e a p p e a l s , except i n i n s t a n c e s where the message has prompted h i g h l y s p e c i f i c a c t i o n s ( D e l p r a t o , 1977; G e l l e r et a l . , 1978). The s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l approach t o e n c o u r a g i n g c o n s e r v a t i o n t h rough a t t i t u d e change has been more e f f e c t i v e when i t has f i r s t sought t o d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e p e o p l e i n such a c t i v i t i e s . There a r e t h e o r e t i c a l bases f o r t h i s approach. The l i t e r a t u r e s on d i s s o n a n c e ( F e s t i n g e r , 1957) and s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n (Bern, 1970, 1972) suggest t h a t the key t o a t t i t u d i n a l change r e s t s upon f i r s t h a v i n g i n d i v i d u a l s behave i n the d e s i r e d manner. From t h i s , a t t i t u d i n a l change f o l l o w s t o r e i n f o r c e the l i k e l i h o o d of such a c t s b e i n g r e p e a t e d . In the energy a r e a s e v e r a l s t u d i e s suggest such approaches may be e f f e c t i v e . For example, P a l l a k and Cummings (1976) found t h a t p e o p l e who made a p u b l i c commitment t o c o n s e r v e by h a v i n g t h e i r names p r i n t e d i n the newspaper, used l e s s e l e c t r i c i t y and n a t u r a l gas than o t h e r s whose commitment was not p u b l i c i z e d . As w e l l , r e c e n t a t t i t u d i n a l r e s e a r c h by F a z i o and Zanna (1978, 1981; Zanna and F a z i o , 1982) s u g g e s t s t h a t p r i o r d i r e c t e x p e r i e n c e w i t h the a t t i t u d i n a l o b j e c t h e l p s t o s t a b i l i z e and s t r e n g t h e n 50 a t t i t u d e and i n c r e a s e the l i k e l i h o o d of a c t s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h i t b e i n g performed. Macey and Brown (1983) p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e s u p p o r t i n g t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h r e s p e c t t o s e v e r a l s e l f - r e p o r t e d b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g energy c o n s e r v a t i o n . F i n a l l y , a number of i n v e s t i g a t i o n s have u t i l i z e d knowledge of group performance t o a c h i e v e c o n s e r v a t i o n . Some of t h i s r e s e a r c h has tak e n p l a c e i n l a b o r a t o r i e s , but these approaches have a l s o been a p p l i e d t o s e v e r a l community c o n s e r v a t i o n programs. In th e s e s t u d i e s the b a s i c problem b e i n g a d d r e s s e d i s t h a t of the "Commons Dilemma" ( H a r d i n , 1968). T h i s paradigm a s s e r t s t h a t when d e p l e t a b l e r e s o u r c e s a r e a b u n d a n t l y and c h e a p l y a v a i l a b l e , t h e r e w i l l be an i n e x o r a b l e tendency toward e x p l o i t a t i o n and s h o r t - t e r m i n d i v i d u a l b e n e f i t u n t i l they a r e d e p l e t e d . Even i f someone f o r e s e e s the r e s o u r c e ' s demise, t o r e s t r a i n consumption would be merely t o fo r e g o p e r s o n a l g a i n so t h a t o t h e r s may g a i n i n s t e a d . The p r o t e c t i o n of the r e s o u r c e , i t s husbandry and c u l t i v a t i o n over the l o n g - t e r m w i l l always g i v e way t o the d r i v e f o r s h o r t run p r o f i t s u n t i l i t i s d e s t r o y e d . Economists have s t a t e d t h a t r e s o u r c e p r e s e r v a t i o n can be i n s u r e d t h rough the a p p l i c a t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e s ( e . g . , K r u t i l l a and F i s h e r , 1975: Chapter 2 ) . S o c i o l o g i s t s and p s y c h o l o g i s t s d i s a g r e e , a r g u i n g t h a t p r i c e i n t h i s framework may be c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e l e a d i n g t o r e a c t a n c e or o v e r j u s t i f i c a t i o n 51 e f f e c t s which s t r e n g t h e n the i n d i v i d u a l i s t i c a t t i t u d e s which are the r o o t of the commons dilemma ( S t e r n and K i r k p a t r i c k , 1977). As a means of a v o i d i n g these problems they suggest the need t o encourage p e o p l e t o be r a t i o n a l i n the l o n g term and t o a c t i n the i n t e r e s t of l a r g e r groups ( S t e r n and Gardner, 1981). Such approaches have been e x p l o r e d i n l a b o r a t o r i e s by employing the P r i s o n e r ' s Dilemma a n a l o g . These f i n d i n g s suggest the u s e f u l n e s s of v a r i o u s communication forms i n o r d e r t o i ) induce c o o p e r a t i o n among p l a y e r s ( B r e c h n e r , 1977; H a r p e r , 1977; S t e r n , 1976), i i ) s t r e s s the importance of f o r m a l l y a s s i g n e d r o l e s and r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n ( S h i p p e e , 1978), and i i i ) promote and m a i n t a i n group norms w i t h r e s p e c t t o r e s o u r c e use ( S t e r n , 1979). In a d d i t i o n t o communicating t o the p u b l i c the need f o r r a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e u t i l i z a t i o n , t h i s r e s e a r c h s u g g e s t s t h a t energy use i s more l i k e l y t o be c o n t r o l l a b l e t h r ough s t r e n g t h e n i n g groups t i e s . T h i s o b j e c t i v e i s a s s i s t e d when: 1) the groups i n v o l v e d a r e r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l ( e . g . , a neighborhood or town) and, 2) the group has management r e s p o n s i b i l i t y over i t s own r e s o u r c e . These approaches have l e d t o reduced energy consumption i n s e v e r a l s t u d i e s of master metered b u i l d i n g s ( M c C l e l l a n d and B e l s t e i n , 1979-80; M c C l e l l a n d and Cook, 1980; Newsom and Makrancz, 1977/78; S l a v i n and W o d a r s k i , 1977; S l a v i n , et a l . , 1978), as w e l l as b e i n g s u c c e s s f u l l y employed i n some community c o n s e r v a t i o n programs (Olsen and C l u e t t , 1979; Warren and C l i f f o r d , 1975) . 52 2.3 Chapter Summary In t h i s c h a p t e r s e v e r a l s t e p s n e c e s s a r y t o the f o r m u l a t i o n of t h e o r e t i c a l models comparing b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e approaches of consumer response t o t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g of e l e c t r i c i t y have been p r o v i d e d . F i r s t , t he energy c r i s i s and c o n t r i b u t i o n s of s o c i a l s c i e n c e r e s e a r c h t o the promotion of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n were p r e s e n t e d . I t was argued t h a t t h e r e e x i s t t h r e e p r i n c i p l e means t h a t energy c o n s e r v a t i o n has been encouraged — the " s t r u c t u r a l " s t r a t e g y r e l y i n g upon r e g u l a t i o n which i s f r e q u e n t l y the s o l u t i o n of a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , and the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e approaches f a v o u r e d by e c o n o m i s t s , s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s and s o c i o l o g i s t s . Each s t r a t e g y was r e v i e w e d and i t s s h o r t c o m i n g s n o t e d . W h i l e b e h a v i o u r i s t r e s e a r c h r e l y i n g upon f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e s or o t h e r r e i n f o r c e m e n t s has f r e q u e n t l y been s u c c e s s f u l , i t s l o n g term e f f e c t s and p r a c t i c a l i t y a r e i n doubt. On the o t h e r hand c o g n i t i v e approaches which r e l y on i n f o r m a t i o n t o change a t t i t u d e s and b e l i e f s have, w i t h a few e x c e p t i o n s , been l e s s s u c c e s s f u l i n promoting c o n s e r v a t i o n . However, such p r o c e d u r e s remain a t t r a c t i v e because of t h e i r v o l u n t a r i s t i c n a t u r e , presumed l o n g - t e r m e f f e c t s , and l a c k 53 of enforcement c o s t s . To be e f f e c t i v e , however, these programs must pay c a r e f u l a t t e n t i o n t o t h e o r e t i c a l knowledge i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e g a r d t o the o r g a n i z a t i o n of c o g n i t i v e e l e m e n t s , w h i l e f o c u s i n g upon a p p r o p r i a t e l e v e l s of measurement, and a c t i v e l y i n v o l v i n g program p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e i r own m o n i t o r i n g and g o a l s e t t i n g . 54 Chapter 3 ELECTRICITY PRICING BY TIME-OF-DAY: COGNITIVE AND BEHAVIOURIST MODELS OF CONSUMER REPSONSE 3.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n In p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r s the r e s e a r c h s e t t i n g and the approaches used by s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s t o i n v e s t i g a t e s i m i l a r problems have been d e s c r i b e d . Now i t i s time t o d e v e l o p t h e o r e t i c a l models a l l o w i n g t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e v iews t o be compared i n the c o n t e x t of consumer response t o t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g f o r e l e c t r i c i t y . T h i s i s done on s e v e r a l l e v e l s . F i r s t , the b a s i c r a t i o n a l e f o r a time d i f f e r e n t i a t e d p r i c i n g s t r u c t u r e based upon r e g u l a t o r y economics w i l l be d e s c r i b e d , and the f i n d i n g s from the ec o n o m e t r i c a n a l y s e s of customer response i n the W i s c o n s i n p r o j e c t p r o v i d e d . T h i s w i l l be f o l l o w e d by two a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n s based on s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r y . F i r s t , t he b e h a v i o u r i s t a n a l o g t o economic t h e o r y w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n terms of s e v e r a l complementary approaches p r o v i d e d by t h i s t r a d i t i o n . Next, two models from c o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y d e r i v e d from t h e o r i e s based on a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n and s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n w i l l be p r e s e n t e d . In d i s c u s s i n g t h e s e v a r i o u s s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l approaches, a key d i s t i n c t i o n w i l l be between the a l t e r n a t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s p r o v i d e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o s t a b i l i t y of b e h a v i o u r s i n the absence of the economic i n c e n t i v e . 55 Here i t w i l l be noted t h a t i n t h i s r e s p e c t , a t l e a s t , the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e models compete by s u g g e s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e b e h a v i o u r a l outcomes. Thus, the g o a l i s t o e v a l u a t e the independent e f f e c t s of each t h e o r e t i c a l approach i n the c o n t e x t of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s , as w e l l as t o d e termine whether the c o n a t i v e a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e has l o n g - t e r m impacts on b e h a v i o u r , as a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y p r e d i c t s , or i n f l u e n c e s b e h a v i o u r o n l y i n the p r e s e n c e of the p r i c i n g s i g n a l , as economic and b e h a v i o u r i s t t h e o r y suggest. F i n a l l y , the c h a p t e r c o n c l u d e s w i t h the f o r m a l , schematic p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e models t o be t e s t e d . 3.2 C o g n i t i v e and B e h a v i o u r a l Approaches t o  Peak E l e c t r i c i t y R e d u c t i o n s 3.2.1 Economic A n a l y s i s or R e s i d e n t i a l Time-of-use P r i c i n g Time-of-day and s e a s o n a l p r i c i n g of e l e c t r i c i t y a r e s t r a t e g i e s based on the c o n c e p t of m a r g i n a l c o s t p r i c i n g , c u r r e n t l y the major t h e o r e t i c a l approach t o t a r i f f development among e c o n o m i s t s . P r i c e s based upon m a r g i n a l c o s t s a r e thought t o be b oth e q u i t a b l e and e f f i c i e n t i n the economic sense of b r i n g i n g about an o p t i m a l u t i l i z a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s . In the case of e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c i n g , t h e purpose i s t o c o l l e c t revenues s u f f i c i e n t t o c o v e r t h e c o s t s of s e r v i c e ( p l u s p r o f i t ) i n c u r r e d by t h e u t i l i t y i n p r o v i d i n g e l e c t r i c i t y t o c u s t o m e r s . These t o t a l c o s t s i n c l u d e p l a n n i n g , p l u s the major c o s t s of r u n n i n g the system ( i . e . , 56 f u e l f o r g e n e r a t i o n , l a b o u r , maintenance, e t c . ) and t h a t of c o n s t r u c t i n g g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t s ( i . e . , c a p i t a l c o s t s ) . T r a d i t i o n a l l y , i n d e t e r m i n i n g how t o r e c o v e r these charges an a c c o u n t i n g approach t o p r i c i n g has been used i n which t o t a l c o s t s are a l l o c a t e d a c r o s s customer c a t e g o r i e s on the b a s i s of an a v e r a g i n g c r i t e r i o n . While such p r o c e d u r e s do r e c o v e r c o s t s , they have been c r i t i c i z e d f o r f a i l i n g t o r e f l e c t a c c u r a t e l y each customer's r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the o p e r a t i o n of the e n t i r e system. In p a r t i c u l a r customer demand v a r i e s by t i m e - o f - d a y and season. G e n e r a t i n g p l a n t s must be c o n s t r u c t e d t o meet peak demand, not average demand, even i f t h i s e x c e s s c a p a c i t y stands i d l e f o r most of the t i m e . S i n c e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r demand peaks v a r i e s a c r o s s customers and customer c l a s s e s , m a r g i n a l or t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c e s are i n t e n d e d t o r e c o v e r the o p e r a t i n g and c a p i t a l c o s t s of t h i s a d d i t i o n a l c a p a c i t y on a b a s i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o each customer's r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r i t . Much, i f not most, of the t h e o r e t i c a l work by ec o n o m i s t s over some t h i r t y y e a r s has i n v o l v e d d e t e r m i n i n g the c o r r e c t means of e s t i m a t i n g and a l l o c a t i n g c o s t s . The F r e n c h economist M a r c e l B o i t e a u x (1949) p r o v i d e d an e a r l y s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem, f o l l o w e d by i m p o r t a n t r e v i s i o n s by Houthakker (1962), S t e i n e r (1957), and H i r s h l e i f e r (1958). From t h e s e an i m p r e s s i v e l i t e r a t u r e has developed and t h e r e are c u r r e n t l y a v a r i e t y of. m e t h o d o l o g i e s which p u r p o r t t o 57 r e f l e c t a c c u r a t e l y how system c o s t s , e s p e c i a l l y c a p i t a l c o s t s , s h o u l d be d i s t r i b u t e d t o customers ( C i c c h e t t i , G i l l e n and S m o l e n s k i , 1976; Dansby, 1975; E r n s t and E r n s t , 1977; G o r d i a n A s s o c i a t e s , 1977; N a t i o n a l Economic Research A s s o c i a t e s , 1977; W i l l i a m s o n , 1966). A much s m a l l e r l i t e r a t u r e has been p r o v i d e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o customer response t o m a r g i n a l p r i c i n g ( f o r r e v i e w s see E l e c t r i c Power Research I n s t i t u t e , 1977; Smith and C i c c h e t t i , 1975). The d i s t i n c t i o n between the two t y p e s of r e s e a r c h can be seen as f o l l o w s : on the one hand, system p l a n n i n g models a r e concerned w i t h how t o e s t i m a t e a c c u r a t e l y each customer's r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t o t a l c o s t s such t h a t the p r i c e s p a i d are e q u i t a b l e and r e f l e c t the t r u e s o c i a l c o s t s of e l e c t r i c i t y consumption by i n d i v i d u a l s . By t h e s e methods i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t r e s o u r c e s w i l l be o p t i m a l l y u t i l i z e d , and peak usage and g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t e x p a n s i o n m i n i m i z e d . On the o t h e r hand, such t h e o r e t i c a l approaches w i l l not be b e n e f i c i a l u n l e s s customers choose t o respond t o the new r a t e s t r u c t u r e . Hence i t i s f u r t h e r n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e the degree t o which response o c c u r s i n o r d e r t h a t the a p p r o p r i a t e t a r i f f , r e f l e c t i n g m a x i m i z a t i o n of c u r r e n t , s h o r t - t e r m system c o n f i g u r a t i o n and a s s i s t i n g i n f u t u r e p l a n n i n g and p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n , i s p r o v i d e d . Depending upon the r a t e s used a number of e c o n o m e t r i c models have been d e v e l o p e d (Caves and C h r i s t e R s e n , 1978; Granger, et a l . , 1977; H e n d r i c k s , e t a l . , 58 1979; Lawrence, 1977; Lawrence and B r a i t h w a i t , 1977; Smith and C i c c h e t t i , 1975; Wenders and T a y l o r , 1976). In the p r e s e n t case we are i n t e r e s t e d i n the manner i n which economists have approached t h e s e e s t i m a t i o n t a s k s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the t i m e - o f - u s e experiment under i n v e s t i g a t i o n h e r e , the W i s c o n s i n r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t . The d a t a from t h i s p r o j e c t have been e x t e n s i v e l y a n a l y s e d by Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1981, 1980, 1979a, 1979b, Caves, et a l . , 1982a, 1982b), and a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of the t h e o r e t i c a l approach they employ can be found i n Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1979a). Here the b a s i c i n d i c a t o r of response i s the e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n . The e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n i s d e f i n e d as the n e g a t i v e of the change i n the n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m of the peak- t o o f f - p e a k consumption r a t i o d i v i d e d by the a s s o c i a t e d change i n the n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m of the peak- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o . Roughly s p e a k i n g , i t i s the p e r c e n t a g e d e c l i n e i n the peak- t o o f f - p e a k consumption r a t i o r e s u l t i n g from a one p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n peak- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o . Thus i t i s the f a c t o r by which a g i v e n i n c r e a s e i n the l o g a r i t h m i c peak- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o must be m u l t i p l i e d i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n the d e c r e a s e i n the l o g a r i t h m i c peak- t o o f f - p e a k consumption r a t i o . For example, i f the r a t i o peak- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e i n c r e a s e s from 1.0 t o 2.0, the n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m of the p r i c e r a t i o has i n c r e a s e d from z e r o t o .69. I f the e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n i s .1, then the n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m of the 59 consumption r a t i o must d e c r e a s e by .069 ( i . e . , .1 * . 6 9 ) . T h i s i m p l i e s the consumption r a t i o w i l l be .931 t i m e s i t s v a l u e p r i o r t o i t s change i n p r i c e r a t i o (Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n , 1980). I f t h i s i s so and customers have t y p i c a l l y consumed an average of 40 p e r c e n t of t h e i r e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g peak p e r i o d s , t h i s would be reduced t o 37.2 p e r c e n t f o l l o w i n g a one u n i t change i n p r i c e . Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1979a) have d e r i v e d e l a s t i c i t i e s of s u b s t i t u t i o n f o r t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of consumer b e h a v i o u r . Based on t h e s e f i n d i n g s they propose t o r e s t r i c t f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s t o a s i n g l e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n — t h e c o n s t a n t e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n (CES) model. T h i s model of consumer p r e f e r e n c e s e x p r e s s e s consumer u t i l i t y f o r e l e c t r i c i t y consumption as a f u n c t i o n of the p r i c e of peak p e r i o d e l e c t r i c i t y , the p r i c e of o f f - p e a k e l e c t r i c i t y , and t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s s on e l e c t r i c i t y : where P i s the p r i c e of peak p e r i o d kwh; P i s the p r i c e of p o o f f - p e a k kwh usage, and E i s the t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e on e l e c t r i c i t y , g i v e n by E = P (kwh ) + P (kwh ). Thus G p p o o e r e p r e s e n t s the maximum b e n e f i t t o consumers o b t a i n a b l e f o r any s e t of p r i c e s and t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s . G i v e n t h a t the consumer chooses the r a t i o kwh /kwh t o maximize b e n e f i t , p o 60 the f o l l o w i n g equation h o l d s : In(kwh /kwh ) = a + Q l n ( P /P ) p o \ p o The e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n o b t a i n a b l e by r e g r e s s i o n from t h i s model i s equal to Thus i t p r o v i d e s a convenient means of e s t i m a t i n g the e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n and f o r e v a l u a t i n g the standard e r r o r of the e s t i m a t e . To account f o r important f a c t o r s other than p r i c e which may a f f e c t consumers' d e c i s i o n s , the equation can be mo d i f i e d t o : In (kwh /kwh ) = a +^y P o . where Z repr e s e n t s n o n - p r i c i n g f a c t o r s (such as the demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f a m i l i e s , household a p p l i a n c e s , or b u i l d i n g f e a t u r e s which p l a c e c o n s t r a i n t s on how e l e c t r i c i t y i s consumed). A l s o i n c l u d e d as n o n - p r i c i n g f a c t o r s are c o g n i t i v e elements such as commitment to reduce peak consumption, and a t t i t u d e s towards saving money or being e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e . To date, however, the econometric r e s e a r c h has not i n c l u d e d such v a r i a b l e s . F i n a l l y , when the model i s extended to i n c l u d e n o n - p r i c i n g f a c t o r s , the e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n i s represented by the e f f e c t s of p r i c e p l u s i t s i n t e r a c t i o n with these other 61 f a c t o r s , and becomes + ' Because customer demand i n t h i s s e r v i c e a r e a ( W i s c o n s i n ) i s summer p e a k i n g i t i s of most i n t e r e s t t o d e r i v e e s t i m a t e s f o r t h e s e months. In examining s e v e r a l models Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1979a) c o n c l u d e the average summer e l a s t i c i t y t o be -.117. T h i s f i g u r e r e p r e s e n t s an e x p e c t e d r e d u c t i o n of 24 p e r c e n t i n the r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k e l e c t r i c i t y consumption, and t h e r e appears t o be no s y s t e m a t i c d i f f e r e n c e s a c r o s s i n d i v i d u a l months or peak l e n g t h s . T h i s i s an average f o r p r i c e r a t i o s r a n g i n g between 1:1 ( i . e . , no d i f f e r e n c e i n on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e ) to 10:1. Thus, i f a household uses 40 p e r c e n t of i t s e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g a peak p e r i o d (or a r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k usage of .667), i t i s e x p e c t e d t o reduce consumption d u r i n g the peak time by between t h r e e and seven p e r c e n t , depending upon the s i z e of the p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l . From the s t a n d p o i n t of s o c i a l * p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r y t h r e e t h i n g s c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e a s o n i n g u n d e r l y i n g t h e s e economic approaches. The f i r s t has t o do w i t h the f u n c t i o n a l form of the models used, which a r e based upon a n e o c l a s s i c a l t h e o r y of consumer b e h a v i o u r . The a s p e c t of t h i s t h e o r y which i s most i m p o r t a n t t o the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h i s the assumption t h a t households de t e r m i n e t h e i r p a t t e r n of c o n s u m p t i o n , a t l e a s t i n p a r t , i n response t o the r e l a t i v e p r i c e s of commodities a v a i l a b l e . Where n o n - p r i c i n g a s p e c t s 62 a r e i n c l u d e d i t has been i n o r d e r t o e s t i m a t e t h e i r i m p a c t s i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h the p r i c e i n c e n t i v e , not i n terms of t h e i r d i r e c t c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o b e h a v i o u r a l change. N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o acknowledge t h a t n o n - p r i c i n g f a c t o r s a r e not i g n o r e d as d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e s upon b e h a v i o u r , j u s t t h a t from an economic p o i n t of view the s e n o n - p r i c e a s s o c i a t e d i n f l u e n c e s a r e of l i t t l e i n t e r e s t , o t h e r than t o improve the o v e r a l l f i t of the model. Second, when n o n - p r i c i n g f a c t o r s have been used the emphasis has been almost e x c l u s i v e l y upon e x t e r n a l c o n s t r a i n t s and o b s e r v a b l e s , r a t h e r than the i n t e r n a l s t a t e s of i n d i v i d u a l s , as the f a c t o r s which may m i t i g a t e the p r i c e - b e h a v i o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p . For example, J a f f e e e t a l . (1982) remark: V i r t u a l l y a l l t h e s e economic s t u d i e s , however, have r e l i e d on t r a d i t i o n a l economic and e n g i n e e r i n g v a r i a b l e s such as p r i c e s , incomes, demographics and s t o c k s of e l e c t r i c i t y - u s i n g d e v i s e s . L i t t l e , i f any, a t t e n t i o n has been g i v e n to measuring how, i f a t a l l , consumer a c t i o n and a t t i t u d e s r e l a t e t o energy usage l e v e l s . (p. 137) S i m i l a r l y , i n t h e i r review of the b e h a v i o u r a l r e s e a r c h i n energy, Evans e t a l . (1978/79) m a i n t a i n , " r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e emphasis has been g i v e n t o the n o n - t e c h n i c a l component", which d e a l s w i t h the r e l a t i o n s h i p among, " a t t i t u d i n a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , r e g u l a t o r y , and p r i c i n g measures" and energy c o n s e r v a t i o n a c t i o n s . 63 F i n a l l y , i t i s a s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d c o n c l u s i o n from economic t h e o r y t h a t the removal of the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e w i l l l e a d t o r e c i d i v i s m among t i m e - o f - d a y h o u s e h o l d s . The f i n d i n g s from economic a n a l y s e s suggest t h a t p r i c e , e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h o t h e r f a c t o r s , has an i m p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e upon r e d u c t i o n s i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y c onsumption. W h i l e i t has not been c l a i m e d t h a t a l l b e h a v i o u r a l change i s a consequence of p r i c e , a t l e a s t a measurable l e v e l of response i s e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o i t , and t h e s e e f f e c t s s h o u l d d i m i n i s h r a p i d l y once the time d i f f e r e n t i a t e d r a t e s a r e d i s c o n t i n u e d ( e . g . , K o h l e n b e r g e t a l . , 1976). 3.2.2 R e i n f o r c e m e n t Theory I t i s a s t a n d a r d premise of b e h a v i o u r a l p s y c h o l o g y t h a t rewards and punishments i n c r e a s e m o t i v a t i o n . Organisms u s u a l l y a v o i d p u n i s h i n g b e h a v i o u r s and i n c r e a s e the f r e q u e n c y of rewarded b e h a v i o u r s . I n d i v i d u a l s who knowingly engage i n b e h a v i o u r s f o r which they a r e p e n a l i z e d f i n a n c i a l l y must r e g a r d t h i s as an u n p l e a s e n t consequence. T h e r e f o r e they w i l l a v o i d such b e h a v i o u r s and p r i c e i s m o t i v a t i o n a l . Such r e a s o n i n g i s b a s i c t o b e h a v i o u r a l p s y c h o l o g y , and i t i s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d t o r e f o r m u l a t e the f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n of the economic approach w i t h i n t h e r u b r i c of 64 b e h a v i o u r a l change under t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g i n terms of i t . M e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y b e h a v i o u r i s m f o c u s e s upon o b s e r v a b l e s s t i m u l i i m p i n g i n g on the organism's sense organs and o b s e r v a b l e b e h a v i o u r s e l i c i t e d i n response. Here i t i s sometimes emphasized t h a t b e h a v i o u r i s m d e a l s o n l y w i t h the e f f e c t s of e x p l i c i t s t i m u l i on o v e r t b e h a v i o u r s . N e v e r t h l e s s , w h i l e i t i s t r u e t h a t some t h e o r i s t s ( n o t a b l y Watson, 1930, and S k i n n e r , 1974) have e x p l i c i t l y r e j e c t e d the i n c l u s i o n of any m e n t a l i s t i c c o n c e p t s or i n t r o s p e c t i v e p r o c e s s e s i n the s t i m u l u s - r e s p o n s e model, o t h e r s ( n o t a b l y Bandura, 1971; Homans, 1957; 1961; Hovland, et a l . , 1953; H u l l , 1943; M i l l e r and D o l l a r d , 1941; T h i b a u t and K e l l e y , 1959) have been i n t e r e s t e d i n the i n f l u e n c e of e x t e r n a l s t i m u l i on i n t e r n a l s t a t e s and how t h e s e can mediate b e h a v i o u r . Three p o s i t i o n s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the g e n e r a l b e h a v i o u r i s t approach can be d e v e l o p e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o consumer response under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . The f i r s t l i n e of r e a s o n i n g f o l l o w s the S k i n n e r i a n model which p l a c e s p r i m a r y emphasis on t h r e e f a c t o r s w i t h r e s p e c t t o method: 1) r e i n f o r c e m e n t — the amount and q u a l i t y of r e i n f o r c e m e n t , the e x t e n t of d e l a y of r e i n f o r c e m e n t , and the way r e i n f o r c e m e n t i s s c h e d u l e d ; 2) response s t r e n g t h — the p r o b a b i l i t y of o c c u r r e n c e , i t s l a t e n c y and magnitude; and 3) e x t i n c t i o n — i t s r e s i s t a n c e t o decay. 65 From t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e i t can be reasoned t h a t the q u a l i t y of the r e i n f o r c e m e n t s c h e d u l e among t i m e - o f - d a y households i s not o p t i m a l f o r i n f l u e n c i n g b e h a v i o u r . For example, i t i s d i f f i c u l t f o r s u b j e c t s t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between i n d i v i d u a l a c t s ( i . e . , u s i n g t h e c l o t h e s d r y e r d u r i n g peak hours) and the r e i n f o r c e m e n t r e c e i v e d ( i . e . , the amount of the e l e c t r i c b i l l ) . As w e l l , t h e r e i s a l o n g d e l a y between the performance of b e h a v i o u r and feedback ( t h e b i l l comes at the end of the month), the time i n t e r v a l f o r r e i n f o r c e m e n t i s f i x e d r a t h e r than v a r i e d , and t h e r e i s not n e c e s s a r i l y any d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between the i n d i v i d u a l p e r f o r m i n g the a c t and t h a t r e c e i v i n g the r e i n f o r c e m e n t ( e . g . , c h i l d r e n use e l e c t r i c i t y but do not pay f o r i t ) . A c c o r d i n g l y , the magnitude of e f f e c t s upon b e h a v i o u r from such a model i s not e x p e c t e d t o be g r e a t . As w e l l , once the e f f e c t s of p r i c e a r e removed the b e h a v i o u r s h o u l d e x t i n g u i s h r a p i d l y . F i r s t , the e v i d e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o punishment ( i . e . , p a y i n g f o r e l e c t r i c i t y on-peak) s u g g e s t s i t a c t s o n l y t o i n h i b i t p erformance; i t does not ( u n l i k e rewards) permanently weaken h a b i t s t r e n g t h . Second, e v i d e n c e suggests t h a t e x t i n c t i o n o c c u r s as the s u b j e c t l e a r n s t o expect the r e i n f o r c e m e n t w i l l no l o n g e r f o l l o w . I n the sample under i n v e s t i g a t i o n here i t was made c l e a r t o a l l h ouseholds a t the c o n c l u s i o n of the p r o j e c t t h a t a time d i f f e r e n t i a t e d p r i c i n g s c h e d u l e was no l o n g e r i n e f f e c t . T h e r e f o r e , f o r both these r e a s o n s we would not expect b e h a v i o u r t o be h i g h l y r e s i s t a n t t o change. 66 A second l i n e of r e a s o n i n g draws upon the t h e o r e t i c a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s made d u r i n g the 1950's by C a r l Hovland- and h i s a s s o c i a t e s a t Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i r e x p e r i m e n t s on communication (Hovland and J a n i s , 1959; H ovland, e t a l . , 1953). The c e n t r a l n o t i o n of t h i s a pproach i s t h a t an a t t i t u d e becomes h a b i t u a l because i t s o v e r t e x p r e s s i o n ( i . e . , b e h a v i o u r ) , or i t s i n t e r n a l r e h e a r s a l , i s f o l l o w e d by the e x p e r i e n c e or a n t i c i p a t i o n of p o s i t i v e r e i n f o r c e m e n t . The s t r e s s i s on the d e t e r m i n a n t s of the i n c e n t i v e s n e c e s s a r y t o a t t e n d , comprehend, and a c c e p t a communication such t h a t a t t i t u d e i s a l t e r e d . I t i s argued t h a t e x i s t i n g a t t i t u d e s a r e s u p p o r t e d by i n c e n t i v e s and as a consequence a t t i t u d i n a l change must a l s o be r e i n f o r c e d by rewards. The t y p e s of r e i n f o r c e m e n t s which have been i n v e s t i g a t e d p r i n c i p a l l y i n v o l v e e i t h e r d i r e c t g a i n s of money, h e a l t h or s e c u r i t y , e t c . , or s o c i a l a p p r o v a l , a l t h o u g h i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h e r e i s i n c e n t i v e i n s e l f - a p p r o v a l as w e l l . T h i s t h e o r e t i c a l t r a d i t i o n s u g g e s t s t h a t the l a r g e r the monetary reward, the more a t t i t u d i n a l change s h o u l d be f a c i l i t a t e d . 1 For t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s t h i s p r o v i d e s a nother b a s i s f o r p r e d i c t i n g b e h a v i o u r a l change i n response t o the economic, s t i m u l u s . That i s , not o n l y might p r i c e a f f e c t b e h a v i o u r d i r e c t l y i t may a l s o d e t e r m i n e a t t i t u d e . In o t h e r 1 J a n i s and G i l m o r e (1965) p r o v i d e some weak e m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t f o r t h i s h y p o t h e s i s . 67 words, i n d i v i d u a l s may a d j u s t t h e i r a t t i t u d e s i n the e x p e c t a t i o n of a c q u i r i n g f i n a n c i a l reward. A t t i t u d e then a c t s as a me d i a t o r of the e f f e c t s of p r i c e . However, once a g a i n when t h e economic s t i m u l u s i s removed, i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t b o t h p r i o r b e h a v i o u r and a t t i t u d e w i l l be r a p i d l y e x t i n g u i s h e d i n response t o the i n d i v i d u a l ' s p e r c e p t i o n t h a t t h e r e i s no l o n g e r any f i n a n c i a l motive f o r m a i n t a i n i n g them. The t h i r d l i n e of r e a s o n i n g f o l l o w s from the t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s of T h i b a u t and K e l l e y (1959) and con c e r n s the r e l a t i o n s h i p of p a s t b e h a v i o u r w i t h c u r r e n t b e h a v i o u r . T h i b a u t and K e l l y p o s i t a m o d i f i e d d o c t r i n e of economic man. They e x p l a i n s o c i a l b e h a v i o u r i n terms of i t s "outcomes": the rewards r e c e i v e d and c o s t s i n c u r r e d by each p a r t i c i p a n t i n an i n t e r a c t i o n . These outcomes assume t h a t s o c i a l b e h a v i o u r i s u n l i k e l y t o occur u n l e s s i t s rewards exceed i t s c o s t s . The v a l u e which a person p l a c e s upon a g i v e n outcome, however, w i l l not be det e r m i n e d by i t s a b s o l u t e magnitude but r a t h e r by comparison a g a i n s t two s t a n d a r d s . One s t a n d a r d , c a l l e d the "Comparison L e v e l " ( C L ) , i s d e f i n e d as a n e u t r a l p o i n t on a s c a l e of s a t i s f a c t i o n . The h i g h e r an outcome i s above the CL, the more s a t i s f y i n g i t i s ; t he lower an outcome i s below the CL, the l e s s s a t i s f y i n g i t i s . The e s s e n t i a l p o i n t u n d e r l y i n g the CL i s t h a t what a person e x p e r i e n c e s when exposed t o a g i v e n 68 s t i m u l u s w i l l be d e t e r m i n e d by t h a t t o which he or she has become adapted. Hence T h i b a u t and K e l l e y suggest t h a t c u r r e n t e x p e r i e n c e p l a y s an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g CL: g i v e n r e a s o n a b l y c o n s t a n t c o n d i t i o n s , p a s t b e h a v i o u r i s the best p r e d i c t o r of c u r r e n t b e h a v i o u r . The second s t a n d a r d a g a i n s t which a p e r s o n a p p r a i s e s outcomes i s termed the "Comparison L e v e l f o r A l t e r n a t i v e s " (CLAT). T h i s s t a n d a r d i s used i n d e c i d i n g whether t o change b e h a v i o u r . I t i s the l o w e s t new outcome a person w i l l a c c e p t i n l i g h t of a l t e r n a t i v e o p p o r t u n i t i e s which a r e a v a i l a b l e . In o t h e r words t h e r e i s a tendency towards c o n s i s t e n c y of b e h a v i o u r ( s u p p o r t e d by comparison l e v e l ) u n t i l such time as an a t t r a c t i v e new o p p o r t u n i t y makes b e h a v i o u r a l change a c c e p t a b l e (the comparison l e v e l f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s ) . For t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g t h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t the i n t r o d u c t i o n of a d i f f e r e n t i a l p r i c i n g s t r u c t u r e may f o r some households c r e a t e an a c c e p t a b l e b a s i s f o r b e h a v i o u r a l change. T h i s o c c u r s when f o r t h e s e households the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s i s s u f f i c i e n t t o produce the comparison l e v e l f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s . S i n c e t h e r e i s no f u r t h e r change i n p r i c e d u r i n g the p e r i o d the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s a r e i n e f f e c t , t h i s change i n b e h a v i o u r i s m a i n t a i n e d . However, once the p r i c e i n c e n t i v e i s removed t h e r e i s i n s u f f i c i e n t p a y o f f f o r c o n t i n u e d b e h a v i o u r and i t r e v e r t s t o former l e v e l s . 69 Another i m p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n of t h i s l i n e of r e a s o n i n g i s t h a t i t emphasizes t h a t rewards and c o s t s cannot be viewed as a b s o l u t e s . That i s , the p s y c h o l o g i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e of an e x t e r n a l s t i m u l u s i n terms of i t s p e r c e i v e d rewards and c o s t s v a r i e s w i t h i n d i v i d u a l s i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e i r p a s t e x p e r i e n c e s and p r e s e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s . T r a d i t i o n a l l y r e i n f o r c e m e n t t h e o r i s t s have s t r e s s e d the consequences of rewards on b e h a v i o u r but not the c o n d i t i o n s t h a t d e t e r m i n e how they a r e p e r c e i v e d . One way t h i s i m p o r t a n t n o t i o n can be h a n d l e d i n the c o n t e x t of the p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h i s t o i n c l u d e a v a r i a b l e i n the model r e p r e s e n t i n g the h o u s e h o l d ' s n o t i o n of the " s u b j e c t i v e c o s t s " of the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s ( i . e . , r e p o r t s of how the p r i c e i s p e r c e i v e d ) a l o n g w i t h the a c t u a l p r i c i n g v a r i a b l e . 3.2.3 C o g n i t i v e Approach t o B e h a v i o u r a l Change under Time-of-Day Rates Two t h i n g s d i s t i n g u i s h c o g n i t i v e approaches i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y : 1) a f o c u s on o r g a n i z a t i o n among c o g n i t i v e elements, and 2) an emphasis upon a d r i v e t o m a i n t a i n c o g n i t i v e c o n s i s t e n c y . C o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y i s not i n t e n d e d t o r e p l a c e o t h e r approaches such as b e h a v i o u r i s m , s y m b o l i c i n t e r a c t i o n or psychodynamics. I n s t e a d , as s u g g ested i n the p r e v i o u s d i s c u s s i o n of b e h a v i o u r a l approaches t o a t t i t u d e change by the Y a l e communication group, t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r e t i c a l approaches may be complementary. However, r a t h e r than c e n t e r i n g upon e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s ( a l t h o u g h not 70 ignored), t h i s approach emphasizes how internal cognitive states are manifest in individuals and the influence these have upon predisposing one to approach his or her environment with a set of behavioural expectations. In short, while environments may be unstable, cognitive s o c i a l psychology addresses the question of what i t i s about an individual's mental universe which i s r e l a t i v e l y enduring and leads him or her to behave across situations in a generally consistent fashion. The key to understanding the organization of cognition around a system of major component and subcomponent parts r e l a t i n g to b e l i e f s , values and attitudes i s that such a structure i s seen to allow the l o g i c a l association d i r e c t l y of: 1) several b e l i e f s contained within an attitude, 2) several attitudes within a more inclusive attitude system, or 3) the t o t a l i t y of an individual's b e l i e f s , attitudes, and values within an o v e r a l l system. Even in consideration of the fact that the cognitive systems of various individuals can be variously elaborated, d i f f e r e n t i a t e d , weighted and s p e c i f i e d , i t i s theorized that such a structure predisposes one to behave in r e l a t i v e accord with i t . From this follows a basic premise of cognitive psychology; that i s , that the system i s responsible for determining r e l a t i v e l y long standing action. While t h i s i s so i t should also be stressed that a change in one part produces cognitive s t r a i n or inconsistency within the system, thus giving r i s e to forces which may ultimately 71 l e a d t o r e o r g a n i z a t i o n of the whole s y s t e m . 2 In a n a l y s i n g response t o t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , two a l t e r n a t i v e models of s o c i a l c o g n i t i o n and i t s e f f e c t s on b e h a v i o u r can be d e v e l o p e d . One of t h e s e approaches assumes c o g n i t i o n t o precede a c t i o n . The a l t e r n a t i v e i s t o assume t h a t b e h a v i o u r p r e c e d e s a t t i t u d e . These two models r e p r e s e n t what has become a r a t h e r l o n g - s t a n d i n g debate among c o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y the problem i s d i f f i c u l t t o s o l v e and n e i t h e r past r e s e a r c h nor t h a t b e i n g undertaken here p r o v i d e s a sound b a s i s f o r f i r m r e s o l u t i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t can be shown t h a t whichever of t h e s e two p e r s p e c t i v e s i s f a v o u r e d , each s t i l l p r o v i d e s a s i m i l a r p r e d i c t i o n w i t h r e g a r d t o what w i l l o c cur when the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s i n t h i s experiment i s removed: t h a t i s , t h e p r e v i o u s c o n s e r v i n g b e h a v i o u r s w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d . 2 U s e f u l g e n e r a l a c c o u n t s of the c o g n i t i v e approach and i t s g e n e s i s can be found i n A b e l s o n , e t a l . , 1968; A l l p o r t , 1954; Osgood, S u c i and Tannebaum, 1957; Oskamp, 1977; Schuman and Johnson, 1976; Rokeach, 1978; T h u r s t o n e , 1931; W i c k e r , 1969; Z a j o n c , 1968; and Zanna and F a z i o , 1982. Recent f o r m u l a t i o n s f o c u s i n g upon s c r i p t s and c o g n i t i v e schemata can be found i n A b e l s o n , 1981; and Markus, 1977. 72 i ) A t t i t u d i n a l C o n a t i o n U n t i l r e c e n t l y the b u l k of c o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p y s c h o l o g i s t s argued t h a t a t t i t u d e preceded a c t i o n . The f o r m u l a t i o n of a t t i t u d e as the p r o d u c t of a s e t of b e l i e f and v a l u e c o n s t r u c t s g a i n e d through s o c i a l i z a t i o n , e x p e r i e n c e and knowledge made c e r t a i n b e h a v i o u r p r o b a b l e , a l t h o u g h i t was r e c o g n i z e d t h a t a host of e n v i r o n m e n t a l and i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s c o u l d i n t e r v e n e t o i n h i b i t i t . In the p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h one a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e , the c o n a t i v e , or b e h a v i o u r a l d i s p o s i t i o n a l , dimension of a t t i t u d e toward t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g i s b e i n g developed and examined over t i m e . The reason the c o n a t i v e a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e has been s e l e c t e d r a t h e r than i t s o t h e r components r e p r e s e n t i n g a f f e c t and e v a l u a t i o n i s t h a t i t i s t h i s d imension which i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be c l o s e s t t o a c t u a l b e h a v i o u r , even though the a b i l i t y t o measure i t a c c u r a t e l y has been s u b j e c t t o some doubt (McGuire, 1969). Working i n d e p e n d e n t l y M a r t i n F i s h b e i n (1967; A j z e n and F i s h b e i n , 1969, 1970, 1973, 1977, 1980; F i s h b e i n and A j z e n , 1975) and Shalom Schwartz (1968a, 1968b, 1973, 1977, 1978) b o t h appear t o have c o n t r i b u t e d t o the e x p l i c a t i o n of the c o n a t i v e a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e . F i s h b e i n has l o n g employed as a s u r r o g a t e f o r a c t u a l b e h a v i o u r a measure r e f e r r e d t o as b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n . T h i s i s e s s e n t i a l l y a b e l i e f about a r e s p o n d e n t ' s l i k e l i h o o d of engaging i n an a c t . I t i s a s e l f - r e p o r t of f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r measured l i k e an a t t i t u d e by 73 paper and p e n c i l t e s t . I m p o r t a n t l y , i t i s p r e d i c t a b l e from o t h e r c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e s , i n c l u d i n g b e l i e f s , s o c i a l p e r c e p t i o n and the a f f e c t i v e and e v a l u a t i v e components of a t t i t u d e s . Hence the measure of b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n i s i n a c c o r d w i t h a model of c o g n i t i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n and c o n s i s t e n c y t h e o r y . Working from a more s o c i o l o g i c a l t r a d i t i o n , Schwartz (1968a, 1968b, 1977) has p o s i t e d the e x i s t e n c e of a p s y c h o l o g i c a l analogy t o the s o c i a l norm, c a l l e d the p e r s o n a l norm. T h i s norm e x i s t s w i t h i n the i n d i v i d u a l as a b e l i e f about a p e r s o n a l o b l i g a t i o n t o a c t . In a c c o r d w i t h c u r r e n t c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s of c o g n i t i v e system and c o n s i s t e n c y the p e r s o n a l norm i s d e r i v e d from g e n e r a l b e l i e f s p l u s two ante c e d e n t a t t i t u d e s : 1) Awareness of Consequences (AC) — the f e e l i n g t h a t s e v e r e s o c i a l consequences a r e imminent, and 2) A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y (AR) — the w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t p e r s o n a l l i a b i l i t y f o r f a i l i n g t o a c t . I f a per s o n a c t s i n a c c o r d w i t h the norm, Schwartz argues t h a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l i s rewarded i n t e r n a l l y w i t h p r i d e and enhanced s e l f - e s t e e m . I f be h a v i o u r i s i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the norm, shame, g u i l t and reduced s e l f - e s t e e m f o l l o w . These i n t e r n a l s a n c t i o n s a r e analogous t o the e x t e r n a l s a n c t i o n s which accompany s o c i a l norms. U n l e s s the p e r s o n a l norm i s d e a c t i v a t e d t h rough s t r u c t u r a l or p s y c h o l o g i c a l means i t s h o u l d be i n f l u e n t i a l i n p r o v o k i n g b e h a v i o u r , as Schwartz has demonstrated i n s e v e r a l s t u d i e s (see Sc h w a r t z , 1977 f o r a r e v i e w ) . 74 Together b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n and the p e r s o n a l norm appear t o t a p c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the c o n a t i v e a spect of a t t i t u d e and each a p p a r e n t l y e v o l v e s from c o g n i t i v e f u n c t i o n i n g . Together they a r e b e i n g employed as a summary i n d i c a t o r of a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n , r e f e r r e d t o as a t t i t u d i n a l commitment. I t has a l r e a d y been shown ( H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1983b) t h a t a t t i t u d i n a l commitment i s r e l a t e d t o s h i f t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y consumption from on t o o f f - p e a k p e r i o d s . However, t h i s b e h a v i o u r was measured when the p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l was s t i l l i n e f f e c t . Assuming t h a t a t t i t u d i n a l commitment e v o l v e s more from a c o h e r e n t system of b e l i e f s , v a l u e s and a t t i t u d e s than from the amount of the f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e p r o v i d e d , i t i s p r e d i c t e d t h a t i t w i l l c o n t i n u e t o i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r even when the f i n a n c i a l m otive i s removed. i i ) S e l f - P e r c e p t i o n Theory A n o t h e r , somewhat c o n t r o v e r s i a l , view argues t h a t a t t i t u d e s f o l l o w a c t i o n . T h i s was f i r s t f o r m u l a t e d and then e l a b o r a t e d upon by D a r y l Bern (1970, 1972) i n h i s r e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the f i n d i n g s from c o g n i t i v e d i s s o n a n c e t h e o r y . In the t y p i c a l d i s s o n a n c e experiment s u b j e c t s are f o r c e d t o behave i n a manner which i s a t odds w i t h t h e i r a t t i t u d e and a r e p r o v i d e d w i t h v a r y i n g rewards. Those who r e c e i v e s m a l l rewards t e n d t o change t h e i r a t t i t u d e s t o be i n l i n e w i t h b e h a v i o u r more so than t h o s e who r e c e i v e l a r g e rewards. W h i l e t h i s has been i n t e r p r e t e d t o mean t h a t 75 d i s s o n a n c e r e d u c t i o n has l e d t o a t t i t u d i n a l a d j u s t m e n t , Bern argues t h a t the f i n d i n g s s i m p l y support c o n s i s t e n c y t h e o r y . That i s , h a v i n g engaged i n a b e h a v i o u r s u b j e c t s may o b j e c t i v e l y view these a c t s , d e c i d e they would not have engaged i n them i f they had not approved, and a d j u s t t h e i r a t t i t u d e s a c c o r d i n g l y . Hence from t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e a t t i t u d e s f o l l o w a c t s . In the c o n t e x t of the t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n t h e o r y may not appear p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t s i n c e the s i t u a t i o n i s not one of f o r c e d c o m p l i a n c e . That i s , i n t h i s s i t u a t i o n a l l households were f r e e t o d e c i d e whether t o a d j u s t t h e i r b e h a v i o u r s . S t i l l , the sample under i n v e s t i g a t i o n took p a r t i n a w e l l - p u b l i c i z e d e x p e r i m e n t , and p a r t i c i p a t i o n was mandatory. T h e r e f o r e , some households may have f e l t they d i d not have the freedom not t o comply i n s h i f t i n g consumption s i m p l y on the b a s i s of the p e r c e i v e d l i k e l i h o o d of b e i n g s o c i a l l y e v a l u a t e d i n the f u t u r e . Even so, i f i t i s the case t h a t b e h a v i o u r s preceded, and t h e r e f o r e d e t e r m i n e d , a t t i t u d e , a t h e o r y of s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n s t i l l assumes l o n g term c o n s i s t e n c y and p r e d i c t s t h a t f u t u r e a t t i t u d e s and b e h a v i o u r s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o f o l l o w even when the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s i s removed. S i n c e , when the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s were completed, i t was emphasized t o households t h a t they were f r e e t o consume e l e c t r i c i t y as they l i k e d w i t h o u t f i n a n c i a l p e n a l t y , t h e r e seems t o be l i t t l e b a s i s f o r b e l i e v i n g t h a t they f e l t 76 c o m p e l l e d t o r e t u r n t o t h e i r p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l ways and thus a d j u s t e d t h e i r a t t i t u d e s a second time i n t h i s r e g a r d . Once the experiment ended, i n the absence of any o n s l a u g h t of new i n f o r m a t i o n h a v i n g the f u n c t i o n of i n v a l i d a t i n g c o g n i t i v e m o t i v e s and s t a t e s h e l d p r e v i o u s l y and p r o m p t i n g w h o l e s a l e c o g n i t i v e r e o r g a n i z a t i o n , a t h e o r y of c o n s i s t e n c y p r e d i c t s t h a t h o u s e h o l d e r s s h o u l d s t i l l f e e l o b l i g a t e d t o c o n t i n u e t h e i r c o n s e r v i n g ways. One f i n a l n o t i o n of how b e h a v i o u r s can i n f l u e n c e a t t i t u d e s needs t o be s t a t e d . Recent r e s e a r c h by F a z i o and Zanna ( F a z i o and Zanna, 1978, 1981; Zanna and F a z i o , 1982) has demonstrated how d i r e c t e x p e r i e n c e w i t h the a t t i t u d i n a l o b j e c t i n f l u e n c e s a t t i t u d e . I t makes sense t h a t t h e r e i s a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o be g a i n e d by h a v i n g d i r e c t c o n t a c t w i t h an a t t i t u d i n a l o b j e c t beyond t h a t of b e i n g o n l y f a v o u r a b l y d i s p o s e d toward i t . By and l a r g e the i n t e r a c t i o n of p r i o r a t t i t u d e and e x p e r i e n c e tends t o s t r e n g t h e n and s t a b i l i z e the a t t i t u d i n a l r e s o l v e . S i n c e i n t h e t i m e - o f - d a y households t h e r e was a m p l e " o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t h i s p r o c e s s of a t t i t u d i n a l d e f i n i t i o n t o o c c u r , i t f o l l o w s t h a t b e h a v i o u r c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p a s t b e h a v i o u r and a t t i t u d e w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d even i n the absence of economic r e i n f o r c e m e n t . 77 3.3 Models and Hypotheses The f o r e g o i n g t h e o r e t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n s can be summarized s c h e m a t i c a l l y u s i n g the t h r e e p a r t i a l l y r e c u r s i v e p a t h models d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 3.A. Here each model d i s p l a y s the r e l a t i o n s p r e d i c t e d t o e x i s t a c r o s s time between the major cause and e f f e c t v a r i a b l e s of i n t e r e s t . Thus B1, B2 and B3 r e f e r t o b e h a v i o u r a l change ( i . e . , change i n the p r o p o r t i o n of on t o o f f - p e a k e l e c t r i c i t y consumption as r e s i d u a l s from the b a s e l i n e y e a r ) d u r i n g t h r e e p o i n t s i n t i m e : 1) the f i r s t summer under the t e s t r a t e s ( B 1 ) , 2) the summer two y e a r s f o l l o w i n g ( B 2 ) , and 3) the post e x p e r i m e n t a l summer ( B 3 ) . In a d d i t i o n , the major impacts upon b e h a v i o u r a l change b e i n g p o s i t e d t o oc c u r a r e w i t h r e s p e c t t o : 1) the economic s t i m u l u s , r e p r e s e n t e d by the r a t i o of on t o o f f - p e a k c o s t f o r e l e c t r i c i t y ( P ) , and 2) a t t i t u d e , r e p r e s e n t e d by the c o n a t i v e measure of a t t i t u d i n a l commitment (A1, A 2 ) . For each of the t h r e e models the sequence of d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s p o r t r a y e d between the major v a r i a b l e s of i n t e r e s t r e p r e s e n t s the t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d . N e v e r t h e l e s s , f o r the purposes of s i m p l i f i c a t i o n t h i s s c h e m a t i c p r e s e n t a t i o n o m i t s s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s of i n t e r e s t t o be i n c l u d e d i n the a c t u a l a n a l y s i s . These a r e v a r i a b l e s of two t y p e s : 78 FIGURE 3.A B e h a v i o u r a l and C o g n i t v e Models of Economic and A t t i t u d i n a l E f f e c t s of Time-of-Day Use of E l e c t r i c i t y Model 1 — B e h a v i o u r a l 1 2 F i r s t Summer T h i r d Summer Po s t Experiment Model 2 — C o n a t i v e P^ 1 2 F i r s t Summer T h i r d Summer Po s t Experiment 79 i ) Necessary P r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r the H y p o t h e s i z e d R e l a t i o n s  t o Occur In o r d e r f o r e i t h e r economic i n c e n t i v e or a t t i t u d e t o a f f e c t b e h a v i o u r , i n d i v i d u a l households must be knowledgeable of the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s t r u c t u r e . Other r e s e a r c h has shown t h a t t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e l a c k of knowledge of these f a c t o r s among customers on t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s ( H e b e r l e i n e t a l . , 1982). Knowledge of the peak t i m e s and about how t o a r r a n g e s c h e d u l e s t o a v o i d a p p l i a n c e o p e r a t i o n d u r i n g t h e s e p e r i o d s , as w e l l as knowing what a p p l i a n c e s c o n t r i b u t e most s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o e l e c t r i c i t y consumption i s n e c e s s a r y f o r s h i f t i n g b e h a v i o u r t o o c c u r . Many pe o p l e who are c o n f r o n t e d w i t h the p r i c e r a t i o s t i m u l u s do n o t . respond s i m p l y because they don't know how. Hence, v a r i a b i l i t y i n knowledge a c r o s s households must be c o n t r o l l e d d u r i n g the a n a l y s i s . A second c o n d i t i o n n e c e s s a r y f o r response t o o c c u r i s a b i l i t y . For consumers t o change they must be a b l e t o s h i f t consumption t o o f f peak t i m e s . R e s i d e n c e s w i t h few a p p l i a n c e s which use l i t t l e e l e c t r i c i t y cannot s h i f t hundreds of kwh t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s s i m p l y because they do not use l a r g e amounts of e l e c t r i c i t y e i t h e r on or o f f - p e a k . Hence the number and type of a p p l i a n c e s i s one type of a b i l i t y a f f e c t i n g h o u s e h o l d s . Ownership of a p p l i a n c e s such as a i r c o n d i t i o n e r s , d e h u m i d i f i e r s or swimming p o o l h e a t e r s i n c r e a s e s a household's a b i l i t y t o respond t o peak l o a d p r i c i n g because they consume l a r g e amounts of e l e c t r i c i t y 80 and t h e i r use i s r e l a t i v e l y d i s c r e t i o n a r y . In g e n e r a l , the more a p p l i a n c e s one owns the g r e a t e r a b i l i t y one has t o s h i f t the amount of e l e c t r i c i t y used on-peak. Another type of a b i l i t y has t o do w i t h f a m i l y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I n d i v i d u a l s who l i v e a l o n e can d e c i d e f o r themselves when t o use a p p l i a n c e s . T h i s i s l e s s so i n f a m i l i e s . The more p e o p l e who r e s i d e i n a d w e l l i n g , the l e s s s i m p l e i t i s t o c o o r d i n a t e the o p e r a t i o n of a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g the o f f - p e a k t i m e s . As w e l l , f a m i l i e s w i t h i n f a n t s or e l d e r l y members may f a c e s p e c i a l problems w i t h r e s p e c t t o c o m f o r t , c o n v e n i e n c e and h e a l t h needs. Thus, the s i z e of the f a m i l y and the ages of i t s members ar e t h i n g s r e l a t e d t o the a b i l i t y of r e s i d e n t s t o respond t o t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g . i i ) C o g n i t i v e A n t e c e d e n t s of A t t i t u d i n a l C o n a t i o n A second type of v a r i a b l e has t o do w i t h antecedent c o n d i t i o n s f o r the a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e , commitment. Here i t has been argued t h a t t h i s measure d e r i v e s m a i n l y from a s e t of p r i o r a t t i t u d e s and b e l i e f s . Much p r i o r r e s e a r c h by F i s h b e i n , Schwartz and o t h e r s has shown t h i s t o be the case f o r the major c o n s t r u c t s c o m p r i s i n g t h i s measure, b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n and the p e r s o n a l norm. N e v e r t h e l e s s t h i s needs t o be demonstrated. T h e r e f o r e v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e s e p r i o r c o g n i t i o n s w i l l be i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . The f a c t o r s t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n c l u d e S c h w a r t z ' s Awareness of Consequences and A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y 81 v a r i a b l e s , F i s h b e i n ' s s u b j e c t i v e norm, a measure of the e v a l u a t i v e component of a t t i t u d e toward t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g , and a g e n e r a l b e l i e f v a r i a b l e r e s p r e s e n t i n g b e l i e f i n the energy c r i s i s . 3.3.1 Hypotheses W i t h t h e s e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s and a n t e c e d e n t c o n d i t i o n s i n mind, the i n i t i a l a n a l y s i s w i l l examine the models d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 3.A. The major emphasis w i l l be on comparing Model 1 w i t h Model 2, the b e h a v i o u r a l v e r s u s c o n a t i v e m o d e l s . 3 However, from the p o i n t of view of c o g n i t i v e s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o attempt t o s o r t out whether a t t i t u d e p recedes b e h a v i o u r or b e h a v i o u r precedes a t t i t u d e . T h e r e f o r e a comparison w i l l a l s o be made between Model 2 and Model 3, the c o n a t i v e v e r s u s s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n models. The f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t s of r e l a t i o n s h i p s p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e of s u p p o r t f o r each of the t h r e e models: 1. B e h a v i o u r a l Model E v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t of the b e h a v i o u r a l model i s p r o v i d e d when: A) The p r o p o r t i o n of peak e l e c t r i c i t y use i s g r e a t e r 3 Economic approaches t o b e h a v i o u r a l change under t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g a r e assumed t o be a d e q u a t e l y r e p r e s e n t e d by the b e h a v i o u r a l model. 82 a t B3 than B2,• and... B) i . P a f f e c t s B1. i i . P a f f e c t s B2 d i r e c t l y or i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h A1. i i i . The e f f e c t s of P on A1 a r e s i g n i f i c a n t , i v . The e f f e c t s of P and A1 i n c o m b i n a t i o n on B2 a r e no g r e a t e r than the e f f e c t s of P on B1 a l o n e , v. B1 a f f e c t s B2. v i . The e f f e c t s of B2 on B3 a r e l e s s than the e f f e c t s of B1 on B2. v i i . The e f f e c t s of A1 on A2 are n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t . v i i i . A2 has no a f f e c t on B3. 2. C o n a t i v e Model E v i d e n c e i n su p p o r t of the c o n a t i v e model i s p r o v i d e d when: A) The p r o p o r t i o n of on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y use i s not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t a t B2 than a t B3, 5 and... B) i . The e f f e c t of P on A1 i s s m a l l or n o n - e x i s t a n t . i i . A1 a f f e c t s B2. i i i . The combined e f f e c t s of P and A1 upon B2 a r e g r e a t e r than the e f f e c t s of E1 on B1 . i v . The e f f e c t of A1 on A2 i s s i g n i f i c a n t , v. A2 a f f e c t s B3. 3. S e l f - P e r c e p t i o n Model E v i d e n c e i n su p p o r t of the s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n model i s p r o v i d e d when: A) The p r o p o r t i o n of on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y use a t B3 i s not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t than a t B2, and... B) i . The e f f e c t of B1 on A1 i s s i g n i f i c a n t , i i . B2 a f f e c t s A2. ft That i s , once the p r i c e s t i m u l u s i s removed, energy usage s h i f t s back t o g r e a t e r on-peak consumption. 5 Or, once the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s i s removed the p r o p o r t i o n of on-peak usage does not s h i f t back. 83 3.3.2 Extended Model I t i s h i g h l y p o s s i b l e t h a t the v a r i o u s t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s work i n c o m b i n a t i o n t o i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r . In f a c t , t h i s i s ex p e c t e d s i n c e the b a s i c approaches examined here have a l l earned c o n s i d e r a b l e support d u r i n g y e a r s of s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h , and no c l a i m of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of one t r a d i t i o n over another i s b e i n g made. Thus, e x a m i n a t i o n of a complete system, such as t h a t d e p i c t e d i n F i g u r e 3.B, i s needed not o n l y t o a c h i e v e c u m u l a t i v e n e s s , but a l s o because i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the v a r i o u s t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s a r e i n s e v e r a l r e s p e c t s complementary. For example, p r i c e may p l a y a d u a l r o l e i n i n f l u e n c i n g a t t i t u d e -- on the one hand p r o v i d i n g e x t e r n a l rewards f o r a t t i t u d i n a l a d j u s t m e n t , and on the o t h e r hand b e i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a l by s i g n a l l i n g the need t o behave i n a c c o r d w i t h one's moral o b l i g a t i o n s . In a d d i t i o n , t h i s extended model a l l o w s e x a m i n a t i o n of some of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s d i s c u s s e d but not c o n t a i n e d i n e a r l i e r models. These i n c l u d e T h i b a u t and K e l l e y ' s n o t i o n t h a t response s t i m u l i need not be p e r c e i v e d as a b s o l u t e s (hence the i n c l u s i o n of a v a r i a b l e r e p r e s e n t i n g " s u b j e c t i v e c o s t s " ) , and F a z i o and Zanna's a s s e r t i o n t h a t the e f f e c t s of p r i o r e x p e r i e n c e a i d s i n a r t i c u l a t i n g and s t a b i l i z i n g t he a t t i t u d e - b e h a v i o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p . O v e r a l l , t h e r e f o r e , the e x a m i n a t i o n of t h i s model s h o u l d p r o v i d e g r e a t e r e x p l i c a t i o n , and a l s o a^low some d i s e n t a n g l i n g of the 84 o v e r l a p p i n g r e l a t i o n s s uggested by a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r i e s . FIGURE 3.B C o g n i t i v e , Economic and S t r u c t u r a l F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Demand f o r E l e c t r i c i t y by Time-of-Day Where: E1,E2=Price R a t i o B1,B2,B3=Behavioural Change A 1 , A 2 , = A t t i t u d i n a l Commitment S C = S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s K1,K2=Knowledge AP=Appliance Stock NP=Family S i z e IN=Income ED=Education - A b i l i t y A R 1 , A R 2 = A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y AC1,AC2=Awarenes of Consequences SN1,SN2=Social Norm EV1,EV2=Evaluation of TOD Rates BC1,BC2=Belief i n the Energy C r i s i s 85 3.4 Chapter Summary This chapter developed several t h e o r e t i c a l models with respect to cognitive and behaviourist approaches of consumer response to time d i f f e r e n t i a t e d e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c i n g . The development of the behaviourist model was preceded by a description of the econometric research used to estimate responses to such rates. It was argued that economic theory and behaviourist approaches in s o c i a l psychology are close cousins, each relying upon external incentives and reinforcement to encourage change. Al t e r n a t i v e l y , cognitive approaches focus upon attitudes and rely upon the internal states of individuals and the drive for consistency among cognitive elements to promote reductions in peak e l e c t r i c i t y use. A series of models comparing representations of consumer behaviour under time-of-use p r i c i n g based upon behaviourist and cognitive approaches was provided. The relations between these approaches was discussed. In some ways they are diverse, while in other ways complementary. Of p a r t i c u l a r interest i s the question of whether attitude i s related to changes in behaviour only in combination "with price, or whether i t stands alone in promoting change. The models developed explore t h i s question over time, and allow the e f f e cts of attitude to be compared both during and following the provision of the f i n a n c i a l incentive. 86 Chapter 4 METHODOLOGY 14.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n In 1975 the F e d e r a l Energy Agency g r a n t e d f u n d i n g f o r a f o u r - y e a r t i m e - o f - u s e e l e c t r i c i t y p r i c i n g experiment under the a e g i s of the P u b l i c S e r v i c e Commission of W i s c o n s i n and the W i s c o n s i n P u b l i c S e r v i c e C o r p o r a t i o n , a u t i l i t y s e r v i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y 225,000 customers i n n o r t h e a s t e r n W i s c o n s i n (Appendix A ) . The experiment was d e s i g n e d t o s i m u l a t e c o n d i t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the system-wide implemention of such r a t e s . U n i v e r s i t y - b a s e d c o n s u l t a n t s i n the f i e l d s of economics, s t a t i s t i c s , s o c i o l o g y and r e s e a r c h methodology a i d e d i n t h e p l a n n i n g , d e s i g n and o p e r a t i o n a l phases of the s t u d y . M a g n e t i c tape m e t e r s , which r e c o r d e l e c t r i c i t y usage by t i m e - o f - u s e , were i n s t a l l e d i n s e l e c t e d homes and c o l l e c t i o n of b a s e l i n e d a t a began i n December, 1975. Customers were i n f o r m e d of t h e i r i n c l u s i o n i n the exp e r i m e n t , the new r a t e s t r u c t u r e e x p l a i n e d t o them, and b i l l i n g of t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e s began i n 1 T h i s d i s c u s s i o n b e n e f i t s from s e v e r a l d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n s of the W i s c o n s i n r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t p r o v i d e d by B l a c k (1978), H e b e r l e i n (1983), H e b e r l e i n , e t a l (1981), H i l l et a l . (1979), Ray, e t a l . (1978), and the W i s c o n s i n P u b l i c S e r v i c e Commission (1981). F i n d i n g s from the W i s c o n s i n experiment a r e r e p o r t e d i n fragmented f a s h i o n i n B l a c k (1978), Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1979a; 1979b; 1981; 1982; Caves e t a l . , 1982), H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1978; 1979; 1983b), H e b e r l e i n e t a l . (1979; 1980; 1981a; 1982), and W a r r i n e r (1979, 1981). Summaries of the f i n d i n g s a r e found i n H e b e r l e i n (1983) and Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1980a; 1980b). 87 May, 1977. The experiment ended i n May, 1980. Three s u r v e y s of p a r t i c i p a t i n g households were conducted -- one b e f o r e the experiment began, one a p p r o x i m a t e l y twenty months i n t o the program, and a f i n a l , e x i t s u r v e y t h r e e months a f t e r the experiment ended. The c h r o n o l o g y of the p r o j e c t i s o u t l i n e d i n T a b l e 4.1. 4.1.1 A u t h o r ' s R o l e Over the f o u r year p e r i o d from September, 1977 through August, 1981 the a u t h o r was employed as a r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t t o the p r o j e c t w h i l e e n r o l l e d i n the graduate program i n s o c i o l o g y a t the U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n - M a d i s o n . My involvement w i t h the p r o j e c t began f o l l o w i n g the i n i t i a l p l a n n i n g s t a g e s , c o l l e c t i o n of b a s e l i n e d a t a (May, 1976 A p r i l , 1977), and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the f i r s t m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e . At the time I was h i r e d a n a l y s e s of the f i r s t s u r v e y ' s r e s u l t s and the b a s e l i n e y e a r ' s consumption d a t a were b e g i n n i n g . My r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s then i n c l u d e d the o r g a n i z a t i o n , c l e a n i n g , a n a l y s i s and r e p o r t i n g of t h e s e survey and e a r l y consumption d a t a . In c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h my s u p e r v i s o r , Dr. Thomas H e b e r l e i n , two s t a t e government r e p o r t s on t h e s e f i n d i n g s were i s s u e d ( H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1978, 1979a). I s u b s e q u e n t l y wrote a M a s t e r ' s t h e s i s comparing a l t e r n a t i v e s t r u c t u r a l e q u a t i o n models f o r the r e s i d e n t i a l demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y ( W a r r i n e r , 1979). P o r t i o n s of t h i s t h e s i s were r e v i s e d , p r e s e n t e d and l a t e r p u b l i s h e d ( W a r r i n e r , 1980, 1981a, 1981b). 88 TABLE 4.1 Chronology of the Experiment Date Event March, 1975 P u b l i c S e r v i c e Commission of W i s c o n s i n and the W i s c o n s i n P u b l i c S e r v i c e Corp-o r a t i o n submit a j o i n t p r o p o s a l t o FEA t o study TOD p r i c i n g . September, 1975 FEA f u n d i n g s e c u r e d and a team of of W i s c o n s i n c o n s u l t a n t s assembled t o h e l p d e v e l o p and d e s i g n the r e s e a r c h . December, 1975 A p r i l , 1976 F e b r u a r y , 1977 March, 1977 May, 1977 December, 1978 March, 1979 May, 1980 June-Aug, 1980 B e g i n i n s t a l l i n g meters and c o l l e c t i n g b a s e l i n e d a t a . Meter i n s t a l l a t i o n c o m p l e t e . Time-of-Day r a t e o r d e r i s s u e d . Load s u r v e y m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e (95% r e s p o n s e ) . Customers b e g i n t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . System-wide r a t e i n c r e a s e passed on t o c u s t o m e r s . M i d s t r e a m m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e (90% response r a t e ) . E x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s end. P o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l p e r i o d consumption d a t a c o l l e c t e d . September, 1980 E x i t s u r v e y m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e (88% response r a t e . Adapted from H e b e r l e i n (1983): T a b l e 1 I remained w i t h the p r o j e c t u n t i l f u n d i n g ended i n August, 1981. D u r i n g t h i s time i t was our major t a s k t o a d m i n i s t e r and r e p o r t upon two a d d i t i o n a l m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s . A l o n g w i t h o t h e r members of the s o c i o l o g i c a l team, I was i n v o l v e d i n the d e s i g n , p r e t e s t i n g , 89 a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and a n a l y s e s of t h e s e s u r v e y s . T h i s work s u b s e q u e n t l y l e d t o the i s s u i n g of s e v e r a l f u r t h e r j o i n t l y a u t h o r e d s t a t e government r e p o r t s ( H e b e r l e i n , e t a l . , 1979, 1980, 1981). I t was a l s o my r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o i n t e g r a t e t h e s e t h r e e s u r v e y s w i t h d a t a on s h i f t s i n peak t o o f f - p e a k consumption d u r i n g the t h r e e y e a r s under the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s . Much of t h i s work f o c u s e d upon the development of a measure of a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n , and the r e l a t i o n of t h i s v a r i a b l e t o changes i n peak consumption d u r i n g the second summer under the s p e c i a l r a t e s . Summaries of the f i n d i n g s from t h i s work were p r e s e n t e d d u r i n g • two c o n f e r e n c e p r e s e n t a t i o n s ( H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1980, 1983a), and p u b l i s h e d ( H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r , 1983b). 4.2 E x p e r i m e n t a l Design The experiment was d e s i g n e d t o t e s t the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t i m e - o f - u s e p r i c e s on c h a n g i n g consumption p a t t e r n s over a broad range of peaks and on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e s . The f u l l y c r o s s e d , 3x3 " f a c t o r i a l d e s i g n matching p r i c e s by peak l e n g t h used i s d i s p l a y e d i n T a b l e 4.2 a l o n g 90 TABLE 4.2 Schematic Diagram of the E x p e r i m e n t a l Design Peak/Off Peak P r i c e R a t i o Length of Peak P e r i o d 6 Hour 9 Hour | 12 Hour 8:1 45 1 46 46 2 4:1 47 46 46 2:1 47 45 45 C o n t r o l (1:1) 1 77 3 1 - number of households a l l o c a t e d t o each c e l l . 2 - 6.9:1/7.6:1 group (see t e x t ) 3 - Combined f l a t r a t e c o n t r o l (N=86), d e c l i n i n g b l o c k r a t e c o n t r o l (N=91). Does not i n c l u d e e l e c t r i c space h e a t i n g r e s i d e n c e s or 3-Part r a t e ( r e f e r t o Note 2 ) . w i t h the number of households p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n each c e l l . 2 2 There were two s p e c i a l groups i n c l u d e d i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n . One of t h e s e (N=46) was c h a r g e d a c c o r d i n g t o a " 3 - P a r t " r a t e c o m p r i s i n g a f i x e d c h a rge, a low f l a t r a t e f o r a l l k i l o w a t t h o u r s used, and a "demand c h a r g e " f o r f o r the h i g h e s t i n s t a n t a n e o u s demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g any on-peak (9 hour) p e r i o d of the month. In a d d i t i o n , a n o ther group of customers (N=38) whose homes used e l e c t r i c space h e a t i n g was added t o the 6 hour, 4:1 c e l l , and a c o n t r o l group of 20 such customers was i n c l u d e d i n the group charged a c c o r d i n g t o d e c l i n i n g b l o c k r a t e s . However, f o r the purposes of t h i s a n a l y s i s n e i t h e r of t h e s e groups i s b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d s i n c e such households s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d as p a r t s of d i s t i n c t p o p u l a t i o n s , and a n a l y s e d s e p a r a t e l y . 91 The d a i l y peak ranged from a s h o r t , s i x hour p e r i o d t o a l o n g , 12 hour peak. The s i x hour peak was the s h o r t e s t p e r i o d c a p a b l e of c a p t u r i n g the system peak, and the 12 hour peak was f e l t t o be the l o n g e s t p e r i o d which customers c o u l d d e a l w i t h e f f e c t i v e l y . The peak p e r i o d s a r e d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 4.A. The t w e l v e hour peak, from 8 a.m. t o 8 p.m., i s the same w i n t e r and summer. The s i x and n i n e - h o u r p e r i o d s a r e s p l i t i n the w i n t e r t o account f o r a morning and e a r l y e v e n i n g peak, w h i l e i n the summer, the s i x hour peak has a "window" a t noon. The t h r e e p r i c e r a t i o s r e p r e s e n t the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the amounts p a i d f o r peak, as opposed t o o f f - p e a k , energy consumption. For example, i n the 2:1, s i x hour c e l l , t he o f f - p e a k p r i c e of energy t o an urban customer was 3.1 c e n t s per kwh, w h i l e the on-peak p r i c e was t w i c e t h i s , or 6.2 c e n t s per kwh. These p r i c e s were d e s i g n e d w i t h two c o n s t r a i n t s i n mind. F i r s t , no matter what the peak l e n g t h or p r i c e r a t i o , no one was t o be charged l e s s than one c e n t per o f f - p e a k kwh. Second, on average the new r a t e s c o u l d not c o l l e c t more than p r e v i o u s t o t a l revenues f o r the company, assuming no changes i n customer b e h a v i o u r . Thus the r a t e s were d e s i g n e d t o p r o t e c t the company and ensure the customers p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n the experiment as a group were not d i s c r i m i n a t e d a g a i n s t by b e i n g c h a r g e d more than o t h e r r e s i d e n t i a l c u s t o m e r s . 92 FIGURE 4.A On- and Off-Peak Hours f o r Summer and W i n t e r Peak H o u r s 1 8 9 1 0 1 1 N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 6 Summer ********** ********** H R W i n t e r ********** ********** 9 Summer **************************** H R W i n t e r ************* **************** 1 2 Summer ************************************* H R W i n t e r ************************************* 1 - Weekdays o n l y — w e e k e n d s and h o l i d a y a re always o f f - p e a k . Adapted from H e b e r l e i n et a l B . (1981): 22 The new r a t e s worked as f o l l o w s . F i r s t , a l l customers p a i d a low monthly f i x e d charge a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r l o c a t i o n ( r u r a l , urban) t o account f o r the c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g s e r v i c e . Then they p a i d an "energy c h a r g e " which v a r i e d a c c o r d i n g t o the amount of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed and when i t was demanded. H i s t o r i c a l l y , customers have consumed 20, 30 or 40 p e r c e n t of t h e i r e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g peak t i m e s depending on whether a 6, 9 or 12 hour peak i s c o n s i d e r e d . For example, under the new r a t e s a customer on the 9 hour, 8:1 r a t e who used 30 p e r c e n t of a t y p i c a l summer month's use of 870 kwh on-peak would pay $25.50 f o r 261 kwh on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption, and $7.43 f o r 609 kwh of o f f - p e a k consumption. To t h i s would be added the f i x e d charge of $4.94 or $8.99 depending on whether the r e s i d e n c e was r u r a l 93 or urban. The t o t a l ($38.87, assuming an urban household) would be e q u a l t h a t p a i d under normal r a t e s . However, i f the customer consumed 40 p e r c e n t of e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g peak h o u r s , or 348 kwh, the t o t a l charge would be $45.31, a d i f f e r e n c e of $6.44. Energy c h a r g e s v a r i e d a c r o s s peak l e n g t h s and p r i c e r a t i o s , and were a d j u s t e d s e a s o n a l l y . However, i n each c e l l the r a t i o of 2:1, 4:1 or 8:1 was m a i n t a i n e d . The e x c e p t i o n was w i t h the 12 hour, 8:1 c e l l where c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the above c o n s t r a i n t s l e d t o a s l i g h l y lower on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o b e i n g implemented. 3 The most extreme p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l was found i n the s i x hour, 8:1 c e l l where the o f f - p e a k energy charge i s 1.6 c e n t s per kwh and the peak charge i s 12.6 c e n t s per kwh. A summary of the r a t e s i n i t i a l l y employed i n the experiment i s c o n t a i n e d i n T a b l e 4.3. Two c o n t r o l groups were a l s o i n c l u d e d i n the d e s i g n . One group was c h a r g e d a f i x e d c h a r g e , p l u s a f l a t r a t e f o r e l e c t r i c i t y consumed, r e g a r d l e s s of t i m e - o f - u s e . The second group was c h a r g e d t h e same s t a n d a r d d e c l i n i n g b l o c k r a t e as o t h e r r e s i d e n t i a l c u s t o m e r s . However, i n a system-wide r a t e change i n December, 1978 d e c l i n i n g b l o c k r a t e s were r e p l a c e d w i t h f l a t r a t e s and, t h e r e f o r e , from t h a t p o i n t the two groups were e f f e c t i v e l y combined i n t o a s i n g l e c o n t r o l 3 For t h i s group the p r i c e r a t i o s were s e t a t 6.9:1 d u r i n g the w i n t e r , and 7.6:1 i n the summer. 94 TABLE 4.3 Rates i n E f f e c t a t B e g i n n i n g of Experiment No. of Peak P r i c e Urban/ F i x e d Hours R a t i o R u r a l Charge W i n t e r 2 On I O f f Energy C h a r g e s 1 Summer3 On | Off 8:1 U 4.94 . 1065 .01 33 .1266 .01 58 R 8.99 . 1 063 .01 33 . 1 258 .0157 4:1 U 4.94 .0795 .0199 .0940 .0235 R 8.99 .0794 .0199 .0937 .0234 2:1 U 4.94 .0528 .0264 .0620 .0310 R 8.99 .0528 .0264 .0621 .0310 8:1 U 4.94 .0835 .0104 .0977 .0122 R 8.99 .0830 .0104 .0970 .0121 4:1 U 4.94 .0676 .0169 .0791 .01 98 R 8.99 .0673 .01 68 .0788 .0197 2:1 U 4.94 .0490 .0245 .0572 .0286 R 8.99 .0489 .0244 .0573 .0286 6.9/7.6:1" U 4.94 R 8.99 12 4:1 U 4.94 R 8.99 2:1 U 4.94 R 8.99 .0684 .0100 .0761 .0100 .0684 .01 00 .0764 .01 00 .0601 .01 50 .0664 .01 66 .0599 .0150 .0667 .01 67 .0462 .0231 .0524 .0262 .0461 .0231 .0526 .0263 U 2. 75 1 S t 200 kwh a t . 0435 .0462 S t a n d a r d D e c l i n i n g Next 1 300 kwh B l o c k C o n t r o l a t . 0314 .0375 Over 1500 kwh a t . 0287 .0375 R 4 25 .0568 .0592 .0321 .0375 .0287 .0375 U 4 .94 A l l hours F l a t Rate C o n t r o l a t . 0316 .0369 R 8 .99 • 0316 .0370 1 - ($/kwh) — R a t e s i n e f f e c t t h r o u g h December 28, 1978 2 - October 1 through May 31 3 - June 1 through September 30 " - U t i l t y e a r n i n g s r e s t r a i n t , see t e x t Adpated from Ray e t a l B . (1978): T a b l e 2 95 group. 4.2.1 Reducing Response B i a s i n the E x p e r i m e n t a l Design In p l a n n i n g t h e experiment an i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i o n was t o a v o i d response b i a s , or those f a c t o r s which would l e a d t o o v e r - or u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n s of the i n f l u e n c e of TOD r a t e s on consumer b e h a v i o u r . For t h i s purpose s e v e r a l s t r a t e g i e s were employed: i ) No Customer Paybacks I t was f e l t t h a t i f the r e s u l t s from t h i s experiment were t o be a c c u r a t e , t h e f u l l economic impact of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s must be f e l t by the consumer. Other r a t e p r o j e c t s p a i d customers back f o r the c o s t s of e l e c t r i c i t y c harged i n e x c e s s of those p a i d under s t a n d a r d r a t e s . However, i f customers b e l i e v e t h e y w i l l r e c e i v e such paybacks t h e p o t e n t i a l impact of the r a t e s may be u n d e r e s t i m a t e d . By p r o v i d i n g no paybacks t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h i s experiment were p r o v i d e d w i t h a r e a l i s t i c economic i n c e n t i v e . 96 i i ) Mandatory P a r t i c i p a t i o n P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the W i s c o n s i n p r i c i n g experiment was mandatory. To d e a l w i t h the p o s s i b l e l e g a l o b j e c t i o n s t o such a d e c i s i o n , a r a t e o r d e r was sought and r e c e i v e d from the W i s c o n s i n P u b l i c S e r v i c e Commission, the r e g u l a t o r y body g o v e r n i n g p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s i n t h i s s t a t e . In the p r o c e s s of a c q u i r i n g t h i s o r d e r p u b l i c h e a r i n g s and s c r u t i n y of the proposed r a t e s o c c u r r e d . In a d d i t i o n , the p l a n n e r s wished t o a v o i d d e c i d i n g a r b i t r a r i l y q u e s t i o n s of h a r d s h i p and e q u i t y . To a d d r e s s t h i s , two p u b l i c workshops were conducted i n v o l v i n g a random sample of p a i d customers who were not p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the e x p e r i m e n t . The customers t a k i n g p a r t i n t h e s e agreed t h a t the r a t e s were f a i r so l o n g as they p r o v i d e d the o p p o r t u n i t y t o make .savings from s h i f t i n g consumption t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s , and d i d not p e n a l i z e p e o p l e who m i s u n d e r s t o o d the r a t e s . The a l t e r n a t i v e t o mandatory p a r t i c i p a t i o n was t o use v o l u n t e e r s . However, i n t h i s p r o j e c t i t was f e l t t h a t such a sample woul-d produce i n f l a t e d e s t i m a t e s of s h i f t i n g s i n c e v o l u n t e e r s would presumably, 1) have more p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e s towards energy c o n s e r v a t i o n and TOD r a t e s , 2) be more h i g h l y e d u c a t e d and a b l e t o u n d e r s t a n d such r a t e s , and 3) have h i g h e r incomes and more a p p l i a n c e s which might be s h i f t e d from on- t o o f f - p e a k . Thus mandatory p a r t i c i p a t i o n s h o u l d y i e l d r e s u l t s which a r e more l i k e l y t o be a c c u r a t e f o r j u d g i n g how a system-wide i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t i m e - o f - d a y 97 r a t e s would work. i i i ) Approximate Communication P a t t e r n s I f , a t some f u t u r e t i m e , t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s are i n t r o d u c e d on a system-wide b a s i s by u t i l i t i e s , t h e r e w i l l be s u b s t a n t i a l media coverage t o t e a c h the consumer how t o a d j u s t and save money on TOD r a t e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , customers w i l l t a l k w i t h each o t h e r t o l e a r n more about TOD r a t e s . S i n c e communication p a t t e r n s such as these cannot o c c u r i n a s m a l l s c a l e experiment where a few hundred customers are s c a t t e r e d a l l over the s e r v i c e a r e a , they were approximated i n two ways: 1) p r i o r t o the r a t e s t a k i n g e f f e c t every customer was v i s i t e d by a company r e p r e s e n t a t i v e who e x p l a i n e d the r a t e s , i n v e n t o r i e d a p p l i a n c e s , and t o l d customers how they might s h i f t t o b e n e f i t from t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s ; and 2) by Commission o r d e r , those customers r e p e a t e d l y e x p e r i e n c i n g l a r g e i n c r e a s e s i n b i l l s under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s were c o n t a c t e d a g a i n t o i n s u r e t h a t they were aware o f , and u n d e r s t o o d , the r a t e s . 98 i v ) Three Year D u r a t i o n W h i l e i t i s not c l e a r what time p e r i o d would be s u f f i c i e n t t o e s t i m a t e the l o n g - t e r m impact of TOD r a t e s , a t h r e e y e a r p e r i o d was f e l t t o p r o t e c t a g a i n s t t r a n s i t o r y e f f e c t s . I t may be t h a t i n t h e e a r l y s t a g e s of a TOD experiment consumers are c o n f u s e d about TOD r a t e s and t h u s unable t o s h i f t . On the o t h e r hand, i t i s p o s s i b l e they are v e r y e n t h u s i a s t i c about TOD and s h i f t a good d e a l . As they become l e s s a t t e n t i v e t o the p r i c e s c h e d u l e and f i n d t h a t the s a v i n g s a r e modest even f o r s u b s t a n t i a l l i f e s t y l e changes, t h e y may go back t o t h e i r normal h a b i t s . A t h r e e year t e s t p e r i o d improves the l i k e l i h o o d of c o n t r o l l i n g f o r these p o s s i b l e r e a c t i o n s , and t h e r e b y h e l p s i n p r o v i d i n g a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s of the e f f e c t s of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . 4.3 Sampling A d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e , s t r a t i f i e d random sample was used t o s e l e c t 694 h o u s e h o l d s from the b i l l i n g f i l e s of the u t i l i t y . The b a s i s of s t r a t i f i c a t i o n was 1975 average monthly consumption. The s a m p l i n g frame was d i v i d e d i n t o n i n e s t r a t a , w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u a l numbers of customers drawn a t random from each. The e f f e c t of the s t r a t i f i c a t i o n was t o ensure t h a t t h o s e customers who were i n the h i g h e r consumption l e v e l s were more l i k e l y t o be s e l e c t e d . That i s , i t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t l a r g e consumers would be more a b l e t o s h i f t e l e c t r i c i t y t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s . I f 99 p r o p o r t i o n a t e s a m p l i n g had been used, i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t many of t h e s e l a r g e consumers would have been r e p r e s e n t e d , and e s t i m a t e s of t h e i r response c o u l d be u n s t a b l e . In a d d i t i o n , p r o p o r t i o n a t e s a m p l i n g i s l e s s e f f i c i e n t . That i s , i d e a l l y t he sample w i l l a l l o w g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s t o be made t o the p o p u l a t i o n of r e s i d e n c e s to w hich TOD r a t e s would a p p l y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h i s i s not p o s s i b l e i n t h i s case because a t the time i t was not c e r t a i n to what customer c l a s s e s such r a t e s would e v e n t u a l l y a p p l y . That i s , i f t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s were w i d e l y implemented, i t would be p r e f e r a b l e t o have o n l y those customer c l a s s e s on the r a t e s whose response would p r o v i d e the g r e a t e s t b e n e f i t to the u t i l i t y and o t h e r customers ( t h u s a v o i d i n g the expense of p u r c h a s i n g and i n s t a l l i n g the s p e c i a l TOD meters f o r a l l c u s t o m e r s ) . G e n e r a l l y , t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s a re proposed f o r c e r t a i n c l a s s e s of l a r g e u s e r s . S i n c e i t c o u l d not be c l e a r u n t i l a f t e r t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s took e f f e c t what t h e f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t would be, i t was i m p o r t a n t f o r the s a m p l i n g t o a l l o w e q u a l l y p r e c i s e e s t i m a t e s of response t o be made f o r each consumption s t r a t u m i n the e x i s t i n g p o p u l a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , i t i s w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d t h a t s t r a t i f i e d samples can reduce s a m p l i n g e r r o r , or i n the v e r y l e a s t s h o u l d not c o n t r i b u t e to i t ( K i s h , 1965). However, t h i s a l s o means t h a t i n o r d e r to g e n e r a l i z e the f i n d i n g s t o a l l r e s i d e n t i a l customers i n the s a m p l i n g frame, w e i g h t s must be used. 100 In t o t a l t h e n , a number of s t e p s were taken t o i n s u r e t h a t e s t i m a t e s of the e f f e c t s of TOD r a t e s on consumer b e h a v i o u r were as a c c u r a t e as p o s s i b l e . By u s i n g s t r a t i f i e d s a m p l i n g , mandatory p a r t i c i p a t i o n , t h r e e year term, and no paybacks, the experiment sought t o reduce any b i a s e s which might d i s t o r t the key parameter e s t i m a t e s . 4.3.1 E x c l u s i o n s t o the Sampling Frame S e v e r a l e x c l u s i o n s were made t o the s a m p l i n g frame t o f u r t h e r improve s a m p l i n g e f f i c i e n c y : i ) L e s s Than 12 Months Consumption Data The s a m p l i n g frame i n c l u d e d o n l y t h o s e who had been a customer f o r the e n t i r e year d u r i n g 1975. Here the purpose was t o reduce a t t r i t i o n d u r i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , as w e l l as t o p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o s t r a t i f y the sample. I f those who were i n i t i a l l y put on TOD.rates moved out of the s e r v i c e t e r r i t o r y d u r i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , they would p r o v i d e o n l y p a r t i a l d a t a . To maximize the p r o v i s i o n of complete b a s e l i n e and t e s t p e r i o d d a t a , the l e s s m o b i l e p o p u l a t i o n was sampled. T h i s means t h a t the f i n d i n g s do not g e n e r a l i z e t o those customers who a r e more m o b i l e and those who moved i n t o the s e r v i c e a r e a i n 1975. 101 i i ) S e a s o n a l Customers The s a m p l i n g frame e x c l u d e d those who were c l a s s i f i e d as s e a s o n a l customers ( d e t e r m i n e d e i t h e r by b i l l i n g or by v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n a t the time of meter p l a c e m e n t ) . W i s c o n s i n P u b l i c S e r v i c e C o r p o r a t i o n s e r v e s a l a r g e r u r a l v a c a t i o n a r e a i n n o r t h e r n W i s c o n s i n where many second homes and c a b i n s a re l o c a t e d . These te n d t o be vacant d u r i n g a l a r g e p o r t i o n of the y e a r . I f t h e s e were i n c l u d e d i n the sample, the magnetic tape meters would have r e g i s t e r e d no consumption d u r i n g most days of t h e y e a r . S i n c e no one i s home, s h i f t i n g i s not p o s s i b l e ; hence, meters i n the s e l o c a t i o n s would have been an i n e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of the p r o j e c t ' s l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s . i i i ) L e s s Than 100 KWH Consumption per Month The s a m p l i n g have e x c l u d e d low consumption customers who averaged l e s s than 100 kwh per month consumption d u r i n g the e n t i r e y e a r . These customers use so l i t t l e e l e c t r i c i t y t h a t even i f they c o u l d make s i g n i f i c a n t s h i f t s they c o u l d have l i t t l e e f f e c t on the l o a d c u r v e of the u t i l i t y . Hence they do not q u a l i f y as b e i n g among the p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t , and t h e i r e x c l u s i o n a l l o w s t h a t the a v a i l a b l e t i m e - o f - u s e meters t o be more s t r a t e g i c a l l y p l a c e d t o improve the e s t i m a t e s of l a r g e r consumers. 1 0 2 i v ) S e p a r a t e l y Metered Water H e a t i n g Those households which had a s e p a r a t e meter f o r water h e a t i n g were a l s o o m i t t e d . To i n c l u d e them would have been an i n e f f i c i e n t use of r e s o u r c e s s i n c e each home would r e q u i r e two t i m e - o f - u s e meters. v) Other E x c l u s i o n s Any f i e l d experiment has e x i g e n c i e s which make o t h e r e x c l u s i o n s d e s i r a b l e . These s h o u l d not l i m i t the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g s , e i t h e r because t h e e x c l u d e d group i s so s m a l l or because t h e r e appears t o be l i t t l e r e l a t i o n between the reason f o r the e x c l u s i o n and the a b i l i t y t o respond. On t h i s b a s i s the f o l l o w i n g e x c l u s i o n s were made: -Meter L o c a t i o n U n s u i t a b l e , 4.9 p e r c e n t A w a l l or o t h e r support would have t o be removed t o i n s t a l l a meter. -Two w i r e s e r v i c e , 3.3 p e r c e n t The e l e c t r i c a l system i s u n s u i t a b l e f o r meter i n s t a l l a t i o n . -Poor c r e d i t r a t i n g , 2 . 0 p e r c e n t S i n c e the experiment was p o l i t i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e , the p l a n n e r s d i d not wi s h t o i n c l u d e customers who might r e c e i v e a d i s c o n n e c t n o t i c e or o t h e r w i s e r e p r e s e n t a h a r d s h i p c a s e . 103 - U n s u i t a b l e h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , 0.5 p e r c e n t -Customer r e p o r t i n g an impending move, 0.4 p e r c e n t -Customer o b j e c t i o n a t time of i n s t a l l a t i o n , 0.5 p e r c e n t -Company employee, 0.4 p e r c e n t 4.3.2 Sample R e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s As a r e s u l t of the above e x c l u s i o n s 56 p e r c e n t of the W i s c o n s i n P u b l i c S e r v i c e C o r p o r a t i o n ' s r e s i d e n t i a l customers were not i n c l u d e d i n the s a m p l i n g frame. The l a r g e s t number of e x c l u s i o n s were due e i t h e r t o an i n c o m p l e t e r e c o r d of 12 months d a t a f o r 1975 ( 1 3 . 0 % ) , b e i n g a s e a s o n a l customer ( 1 4 . 1 % ) , or consuming on average l e s s than 100 kwh per month ( 1 2 . 1 % ) . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s e two l a t t e r groups i t can be argued t h a t they a r e not among the p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t s i n c e i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s w i l l ever a p p l y t o them. That i s , such r e s i d e n t s use t o o l i t t l e e l e c t r i c t y t o warrant the expense of a t i m e - o f - u s e meter, and even i f they made s h i f t s they would have l i t t l e impact on the l o a d c u r v e of the u t i l i t y . As w e l l , the r e m a i n i n g 44 p e r c e n t of r e s i d e n t i a l customers from which the sample was s e l e c t e d were r e s p o n s i b l e f o r 62 p e r c e n t of a l l r e s i d e n t i a l consumption. T h e r e f o r e , w h i l e i n r e t r o s p e c t the g a i n s i n d e s i g n e f f i c i e n c y a c h i e v e d by these 1 04 e x c l u s i o n s may have l i m i t e d the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of t h e s e d a t a , the sample may s t i l l best r e p r e s e n t those customers who i n the f u t u r e a r e most l i k e l y t o be on t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . 4.4 Rate Implementation For a year p r i o r t o the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s g o i n g i n t o e f f e c t (May, 1976 - A p r i l , 1977) sampled households had t h e i r consumption m o n i t o r e d , but were not t o l d of t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n an e x p e r i m e n t . S i n c e t h e s e data were c o l l e c t e d w i t h o u t customers b e i n g a l e r t e d t o t h e i r purpose, the usage p a t t e r n s r e c o r d e d a t t h i s time s h o u l d i n most r e s p e c t s be c o n s i d e r e d "normal". These b a s e l i n e d a t a t h e r e f o r e a l l o w customer responses over a wide range of peak l e n g t h s and seasons t o be computed and used as the r e f e r e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o b e h a v i o u r s which o c c u r r e d w h i l e the s p e c i a l r a t e s were i n e f f e c t . At the end of t h i s p e r i o d a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s were randomly a s s i g n e d t o s e p a r a t e d e s i g n c e l l s by a b l o c k i n g p r o c e d u r e which i n s u r e d r e a s o n a b l y e q u a l p r o p o r t i o n s of p a r t i c i p a n t s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r 1975 consumption l e v e l s , and whether they owned a i r c o n d i t i o n e r s and/or used e l e c t r i c i t y f o r water h e a t i n g . 105 4.4.1 Customer I n f o r m a t i o n Customers r e c e i v e d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e new r a t e s and were a s s i s t e d i n b e n e f i t i n g from them i n s e v e r a l ways. T h i s was i n t e n d e d t o s i m u l a t e system-wide i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of such r a t e s as f a r as was p o s s i b l e , w h i l e r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t some c o n t a c t s would go beyond t h a t which c o u l d f e a s i b l y be c a r r i e d out among the p o p u l a t i o n of over 200,000 customers. However, p r o v i d i n g the sample w i t h some s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n seemed w a r r a n t e d s i n c e t h e s e households would not r e c e i v e the media coverage and r e a c t i o n s of f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s which would occur i f such ra.tes were w i d e l y implemented. P r i o r t o the r a t e s g o i n g i n t o e f f e c t p a r t i c i p a t i n g h o u seholds r e c e i v e d an i n f o r m a t i o n packet from the u t i l i t y . T h i s c o n t a i n e d a l e t t e r i n f o r m i n g them of t h e i r s e l e c t i o n , a b o o k l e t e x p l a i n i n g t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s and a p p l i a n c e usage, and " r a t e study s h e e t s " comparing t h e i r a c t u a l b i l l s over the b a s e l i n e year w i t h t h o s e c a l c u l a t e d under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . F o l l o w i n g t h i s each home was v i s i t e d by an employee of the u t i l i t y . T h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p r o v i d e d each h o u s e h o l d w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n on the on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e s , the hours t o which they a p p l i e d , and i n d i c a t e d the amount of s a v i n g s which might a c c r u e from s h i f t s i n usage based on the hous e h o l d ' s a p p l i a n c e s t o c k . In a d d i t i o n , customers' e l e c t r i c b i l l s p r o v i d e d feedback w i t h r e s p e c t t o the new r a t e s . Each month the b i l l i n d i c a t e d : 1) the q u a n t i t y and pe r c e n t a g e of on-peak usage, 1 06 w i t h u n i t and t o t a l c o s t of each; 2) the q u a n t i t y and p e r c e n t a g e of o f f - p e a k usage, w i t h u n i t and t o t a l c o s t ; 3) the q u a n t i t y and percentage of on-peak and o f f - p e a k used d u r i n g the p r e v i o u s month; 4) the q u a n t i t y and p e r c e n t a g e used on- and o f f - p e a k d u r i n g the c u r r e n t month of t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r ; and 5) the s a v i n g s p o s s i b l e f o r a f i v e p e r c e n t s h i f t from on- t o o f f - p e a k usage f o r the c u r r e n t month. A sample of such a b i l l i s c o n t a i n e d i n Appendix B. I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t the b i l l p u r p o s i v e l y d i d not make a comparison w i t h amounts c a l c u l a t e d under s t a n d a r d e l e c t r i c r a t e s . Such a comparison i s not r e a l i s t i c s i n c e i f t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s were i n e f f e c t f o r a l l r e s i d e n t i a l c u s t o mers, s t a n d a r d r a t e s would no l o n g e r e x i s t . F o l l o w i n g i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the r a t e s customers who appeared t o be h a v i n g d i f f i c u l t y were c o n t a c t e d by a customer r e p r e s e n t a t i v e a second t i m e . The b a s i s f o r t h i s d e c i s i o n was whether the h o u s e h o l d e l e c t i c b i l l was f i v e d o l l a r s o r 15 p e r c e n t above s t a n d a r d b i l l i n g f o r any two c o n s e c u t i v e months, or f o u r months out of an e n t i r e y e a r . Customers were not informed t h a t they were f a i l i n g t o b e n e f i t from the r a t e s , j u s t a s k ed i f they u n d e r s t o o d t h e r a t e s and knew how t o s h i f t a p p l i a n c e usage t o o f f - p e a k t i m e s . I f no h a r d s h i p or m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g was e v i d e n t , the customer was not c o n t a c t e d a g a i n . 107 4.4.2 1978 Rate I n c r e a s e One c o m p l i c a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from the m u l t i - y e a r n a t u r e of t h i s experiment was a system wide r a t e change which took e f f e c t December 28, 1978, some twenty months a f t e r i n i t i a l TOD r a t e s had begun. The major change imposed by t h i s r a t e o r d e r was t h a t the u t i l i t y r e p l a c e d d e c l i n i n g b l o c k r a t e s w i t h f l a t r a t e s as the s t a n d a r d r e s i d e n t i a l t a r i f f . The f i x e d charge was a l s o d e c r e a s e d w h i l e energy charges i n c r e a s e d . Time-of-day e x p e r i m e n t a l h o u s e h o l d s were s u b j e c t t o the s e g e n e r a l changes, but they remained on a t i m e - d i f f e r e n t i a t e d r a t e s t r u c t u r e w h i l e c o n t i n u i n g the same on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o s and peak ti m e s (Appendix C ) . Hence, w h i l e the new r a t e s t r u c t u r e may have p r o v i d e d an a d d i t i o n a l c o n s e r v a t i o n i n c e n t i v e t o h o u s e h o l d s , i t s e f f e c t on peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption s h o u l d not have been d i f f e r e n t . 4.4.3 E x p e r i m e n t a l A t t r i t i o n Another t h r e a t posed by the t h r e e year l e n g t h of t h i s e x periment was sa m p l i n g a t t r i t i o n . S i g n i f i c a n t a t t r i t i o n would s e r i o u s l y j e o p a r d i z e the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g s f o r the l a t e r y e a r s of the s t u d y . However, a t t r i t i o n was r e l a t i v e l y low (T a b l e 4.4). D u r i n g the b a s e l i n e and f i r s t two y e a r s under the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s , 87 h o u s e h o l d s , or 12.5 p e r c e n t of the sample, were l o s t . T h i s low r a t e was a c h i e v e d p a r t l y due t o the mandatory 1 0 8 n a t u r e of the stu d y , " and p a r t l y due t o a d e c i s i o n by the pl a n n e r s - t o f o l l o w f a m i l i e s who moved w i t h i n the company's s e r v i c e t e r r i t o r y . Of the 87 households dropped from the experiment d u r i n g t h i s t h r e e year p e r i o d , 53 of these were due t o moves o u t s i d e the company's t e r r i t o r y , and 32 were due t o d e a t h s , f i r e s or o t h e r e x t e n u a t i n g c i r c u m s t a n c e s . TABLE 4.4 A t t r i t i o n from the Sample Reason f o r A t t r i t i o n N P e r c e n t of Sample 1) Moves o u t s i d e the t e r r i t o r y s e r v e d by the u t i l i t y . 55 7.9 2) Other m i s c e l l a n e o u s r e a s o n s : 20 2.9 a) E l e c t r i c space h e a t i n g home c o n v e r t e d t o o i l , b) R esidence became farm, c) Customer moved and new home u n s u i t a b l e f o r meter i n s t a l l a t i o n , d) Home r e - m o d e l l e d t o m u l t i -e) f a m i l y d w e l l i n g , Customer found t o be s e a s o n a l , have s e p a r a t e l y metered water h e a t i n g , e t c . 3) H a r d s h i p 1 2 1.7 a) P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n experiment c o n t r i b u t i n g t o m a r i t a l s t r i f e , e t c . b) Customer i n poor h e a l t h , c) Death of spouse, d) House burned, e t c . T o t a l s 87 12.5% S ource: H e b e r l e i n e t a l B . (1981), p. 11 4 Even s t r e n u o u s o b j e c t i o n s t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n u s u a l l y f a i l e d t o exempt a household 109 4.4.4 P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Consumption B i l l i n g under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s ended i n May, 1980. In a l e t t e r from the u t i l i t y a t t h i s time a l l customers were informed t h a t t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the study was o v e r . T h i s l e t t e r emphasized t h a t h o u s e h o l d e r s c o u l d go back t o u s i n g e l e c t r i c i t y as they wished, w i t h o u t f i n a n c i a l p e n a l t y f o r peak consumption. A l t h o u g h no l o n g e r s u b j e c t t o s p e c i a l r a t e s a subsample of the o r i g i n a l t i m e - o f - d a y households c o n t i n u e d t o have t h e i r e l e c t r i c i t y consumption m o n i t o r e d d u r i n g the f o l l o w i n g summer. These p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l d a t a a l l o w consumption i n the absence of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s t o be a s s e s s e d . Hence p a t t e r n s of r e c i d i v i s m can be r e l a t e d t o a t t i t u d i n a l committment i n the absence of the economic i n c e n t i v e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i n s e e k i n g t o measure p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l b e h a v i o u r s i t was u n a v o i d a b l e t h a t not a l l the t i m e - o f - u s e meters c o u l d be l e f t on t e s t h o u s e h o l d s . T h i s was due t o f e d e r a l r e g u l a t i o n s c a l l i n g f o r t h e i r use i n o t h e r s e c t o r s of t h e u t i l i t y ' s s e r v i c e a r e a . Only 200 of the o r i g i n a l 694 meters were r e t a i n e d a f t e r t h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s were met. W i t h t h i s number i n mind, i t was d e c i d e d t o l e a v e meters i n a l l the p r e v i o u s nine-hour consumption group (n=120), as w e l l as a random group of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 80 of the former c o n t r o l h o u s e h o l d s . T h i s reduced sample s i z e i s a n o t h e r u n f o r t u n a t e e x i g e n c y of the 1 10 type which c o n f r o n t s f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n . However, the sample i s s t i l l s u f f i c i e n t t o p r o v i d e e s t i m a t e s of a c c e p t a b l e s t a b i l i t y f o r a n a l y s i s of t h e s e p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l d a t a . The f u l l sample of about 520 remains f o r a n a l y s e s of e a r l i e r p e r i o d s . 5 4.5 M a i l e d Q u e s t i o n n a i r e s A p p l i a n c e , demographic and a t t i t u d i n a l d a t a were c o l l e c t e d t h r o u g h t h r e e m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s u r v e y s . 6 The f i r s t of t h e s e was c o n d u c t e d d u r i n g March, 1977, j u s t p r i o r t o the p a r t i c i p a n t h ouseholds g o i n g on the s p e c i a l r a t e s . T h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e asked r e s p o n d e n t s t o r e p o r t on the type and number owned of some s i x t y major a p p l i a n c e s . A d d i t i o n a l q u e s t i o n s i n v e s t i g a t e d the s i z e , age and usage p a t t e r n s of s e v e r a l of t h e s e , as w e l l as the time of day c e r t a i n e n e r g y - r e l e v a n t h o u s e h o l d a c t i v i t i e s took p l a c e . T h i s survey a l s o l o o k e d a t a number of home b u i l d i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as age, number and t y p e of rooms, date 5 For the purposes of t h i s a n a l y s i s the o v e r a l l sample s i z e i s reduced t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y 520 due t o a t t r i t i o n and because s p e c i a l groups — the 3-Part r a t e (N=46), and the e l e c t r i c space h e a t e r group and c o n t r o l s (n=58) — a r e e x c l u d e d (see Note 2 ) . 6 A f o u r t h q u e s t i o n n a i r e , i n i t i a t e d by U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n s o c i o l o g i s t S t a n l e y B l a c k , was sent out j u s t p r i o r t o the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s g o i n g i n t o e f f e c t . I t was d i r e c t e d a t a l l a d u l t members of t e s t h o u s e h o l d s , and s o l i c i t e d t h e i r a t t i t u d e s toward t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g , a number of s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l v a r i a b l e s , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n c e r n s . The response r a t e t o t h i s s u r v ey was 60.3 p e r c e n t f o r i n d i v i d u a l s , and 71.3 p e r c e n t f o r h o u s e h o l d s . The f i n d i n g s a r e d e t a i l e d i n B l a c k (1978). 111 l a s t i n s u l a t e d and home v a l u e . F i n a l l y , i t i n v e s t i g a t e d the s o c i o - e c o n o m i c and demographic makeup of the f a m i l y a c c o r d i n g t o the ages of i t s members, the number i n the home, work s c h e d u l e s , e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s and income. The second s u r v e y was conducted d u r i n g March, 1979, two y e a r s a f t e r implementing the s p e c i a l r a t e s and one year p r i o r t o c o n c l u d i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . The main purpose of t h i s midstream survey was t o measure i n d i v i d u a l s ' a t t i t u d e s about t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g , t h e i r o p i n i o n s of the u t i l i t y company i n v o l v e d , t h e i r knowledge of the s p e c i a l p r i c i n g s t r u c t u r e and peak l e n g t h s , and t h e i r c o n c e r n s and b e l i e f s about more g e n e r a l energy and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s . T h i s survey a l s o a s s e s s e d what changes i n h o u s e h o l d work s c h e d u l i n g had taken p l a c e i n response t o the t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e s and whether the program had l e d t o any f a m i l y disharmony or undue d i s r u p t i o n i n l i f e s t y l e s among c e r t a i n groups. F i n a l l y , t h i s s u r v e y updated the a p p l i a n c e and demographic i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d i n the f i r s t s u r v e y . The t h i r d q u e s t i o n n a i r e was a d m i n i s t e r e d i n mid-September, 1980, n e a r l y t h r e e months a f t e r the t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e s had ended, and over t h r e e y e a r s a f t e r they f i r s t came i n t o e f f e c t . The t i m i n g of the survey a d m i n i s t r a t i o n was i m p o r t a n t . Customers had f o r some time now been a b l e t o r e - e x p e r i e n c e s t a n d a r d r a t e s and c o u l d compare the s e w i t h t h e i r former t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e s . Respondents were asked about changes they had made i n the 1 1 2 o p e r a t i o n of a p p l i a n c e s s i n c e the t e r m i n a t i o n of the s p e c i a l r a t e s , and t h e i r o p i n i o n s on the c o n v e n i e n c e and f a i r n e s s of such a p r i c i n g s t r u c t u r e . In a d d i t i o n , t h e s e f a m i l i e s ' c u r r e n t knowledge of t h e i r former t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e s t r u c t u r e and commitment t o the c o n t i n u e d use of a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k hours was a s s e s s e d . These f a c t o r s were measured by a s e r i e s of s c a l e s p r e v i o u s l y found t o be r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t o r s of r e d u c t i o n s i n peak consumption w h i l e the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s were i n e f f e c t . By a s k i n g t h i s s e r i e s of a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s a g a i n , but w i t h r e s p e c t t o c u r r e n t , p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n c e p t i o n s , changes i n a t t i t u d e and t h e i r e f f e c t s on b e h a v i o u r f o l l o w i n g removal of the economic i n c e n t i v e can be e v a l u a t e d . For both the midstream and e x i t s u r v e y s , c o n t r o l customers r e c e i v e d s p e c i a l v e r s i o n s of q u e s t i o n n a i r e s . These were i d e n t i c a l t o the t e s t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w i t h r e g a r d t o much of the sociodemographic and a p p l i a n c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and r e p o r t e d e n e r g y - r e l e v a n t b e h a v i o u r s . However, s i n c e such h o u s e h o l d s never a c t u a l l y e x p e r i e n c e d t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s they were asked t o respond t o a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s on a h y p o t h e t i c a l b a s i s . S i n c e such a procedure makes the a t t i t u d i n a l measures of t e s t customers and c o n t r o l s d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s , i t i s not i n t e n d e d here t o make comparisons on t h e s e f a c t o r s a c r o s s the two groups. The energy consumption of c o n t r o l s , however, remains the b a s i c 1 13 r e f e r e n t a g a i n s t which s h i f t s i n consumption by the t i m e - o f - d a y households w i l l be compared. For r e s p o n d i n g t o each survey h o u s e h o l d s r e c e i v e d a f i v e d o l l a r c ash g r a t u i t y . W i t h an advance l e t t e r and two f o l l o w u p s , o v e r a l l response t o the i n i t i a l s u r v e y was 95.9 p e r c e n t f o r the t e s t and c o n t r o l cutomers, w i t h the c o m p l e t i o n r a t e f o r the t e s t c a t e g o r y a l o n e b e i n g 99 p e r c e n t w i t h o n l y 6 of 586 customers not r e p o r t i n g . Response t o the midstream survey was 91 p e r c e n t , w i t h the c o m p l e t i o n r a t e f o r the t e s t group t h i s time b e i n g 90 p e r c e n t . For the e x i t s u r v e y response was 88.2 p e r c e n t , w i t h 86.6 p e r c e n t of the former t e s t group p r o v i d i n g r e t u r n s . Appendix D d e t a i l s response r a t e s f o r each of these t h r e e s u r v e y s , and examples of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s used a r e p r o v i d e d on Appendix E. 4.6 Dependent Measures The magnetic tape meters i n s t a l l e d on a l l t e s t and c o n t r o l h ouseholds r e c o r d e d consumption e v e r y f i f t e e n m i n u t e s . Four y e a r s of metering.among n e a r l y 700 households r e n d e r s a v e r y l a r g e number of d a t a p o i n t s (694 households x 96 o b s e r v a t i o n s / d a y x 365 days/year x 4 y e a r s = 97,271,040). For t h i s reason i t i s i n t e n d e d t o a n a l y s e o n l y the months of J u l y and August f o r the f i v e summers b e f o r e , d u r i n g and a f t e r the t e s t r a t e s . T h i s i s a p p r o p r i a t e s i n c e i n t h i s s e r v i c e a r e a the h e a v i e s t demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y o c c u r s d u r i n g the summer months i n response t o heavy a i r 114 c o n d i t i o n i n g l o a d . F u r t h e r , the s u r v e y s measuring a t t i t u d e s , household c o m p o s i t i o n and r e p o r t e d b e h a v i o u r s were a d m i n i s t e r e d i n c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o t h e s e months. F i n a l l y , and most i m p o r t a n t , p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption was c o l l e c t e d o n l y f o r the t h r e e months f o l l o w i n g c o m p l e t i o n of the p r o j e c t , t h a t i s June t h r o u g h August, 1980. S i n c e comparisons of these d a t a w i t h t e s t and p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption w i l l form a major a s p e c t of t h i s r e s e a r c h , i t i s d e s i r a b l e t h a t the a n a l y s i s be r e s t r i c t e d t o j u s t the summer p e r i o d s . The a n a l y s i s p e r i o d s a r e d i s p l a y e d i n T a b l e 4.5. 4.6.1 R e s i d u a l i z e d Change S c o r e s The a n a l y s i s c a l l s f o r changes i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption over time t o be r e l a t e d t o measures of a t t i t u d e and economic i n c e n t i v e . To a s s e s s the d i f f e r e n c e s i n on- t o o f f - p e a k e l e c t r i c i t y consumption between the b a s e l i n e year and the f o u r summers which f o l l o w e d , r e s i d u a l i z e d change 1 15 TABLE 4.5 Summer Consumption Months f o r the W i s c o n s i n Time-of-Use Rate D e m o n s t r a t i o n P r o j e c t Month Base-1 i n e T e s t 1 Year 2 3 P o s t -E x p e r i m e n t a l J u l y 1976 1977 78 79 1 980 August 1976 1 977 78 79 1980 N 694 694 a 200 Comment 1st s u r vey 2nd survey E x i t (March/77) (March/79) (Sept/80) a - A l l n i ne-hour t e s t customers r e m a i n i n g i n experiment at c o m p l e t i o n ( n = l 2 0 ) , and random group of c o n t r o l s 7 An a l t e r n a t i v e p r o c e d u r e f o r a s s e s s i n g change i s p r o v i d e d by r e c e n t l y developed p r o c e d u r e s f o r c a u s a l m odeling a p p l i e d t o l o n g i t u d i n a l d a t a (see J o r e s k o g , 1977; B i e l b y and Hauser, 1977; B e n t l e r , 1978; B e n t l e r and Weeks, 1979 f o r the t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s and e x amples). Maximum l i k e l i h o o d e s t i m a t e s of c a u s a l and measurement parameters a r e a t t a i n e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y t h r o u g h c o n f i r m a t o r y f a c t o r a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s (LISREL) based on the assumption of a m u l t i n o r m a l p r o b a b i l i t y d e n s i t y u n d e r l y i n g the d a t a . M u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s w i t h l a t e n t v a r i a b l e s i s employed t o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y e s t i m a t e the c a u s a l and the measurement model. The c a u s a l model s p e c i f i e s l i n e a r i n f l u e n c e s t o be p r e s e n t i n a group of l a t e n t c o n s t r u c t s or f a c t o r s . The l a t e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e not measured d i r e c t l y , r a t h e r they are i n f e r r e d from the measured v a r i a b l e s . The measurement model denotes the l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s of t h e s e l a t e n t f a c t o r s t o the o b t a i n e d o b s e r v e d v a r i a b l e s . The s o f t w a r e needed t o examine models of t h i s t y pe i s a v a i l a b l e a t UBC, but i s not g e n e r a l l y s u p p o r t e d . F u r t h e r , i t i s not c l e a r whether any s i z e a b l e advantage would be a c h i e v e d by the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s e s t i m a t i o n t e c h n i q u e t o the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h problem. W h i l e s o p h i s t i c a t e d , the f i n d i n g s would not be d i r e c t l y comparable t o t h o s e of o t h e r a n a l y s e s of t h e s e r a t e d a t a , where o r d i n a r y l e a s t squares r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s have predominated. 1 16 s c o r e s w i l l be computed. 7 Here the p r o c e d u r e i s t o r e g r e s s summer t e s t (or p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l ) season s c o r e s f o r the r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k consumption used monthly upon summer b a s e l i n e r a t i o s . The d i f f e r e n c e between p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s of t h e s e p r o p o r t i o n s and o b s e r v e d v a l u e s i s the r e s i d u a l . I t has been shown ( B o h r n s t e d t , 1969) t h a t such s c o r e s a r e r e l i a b l e measures of the degree t o which change has o c c u r r e d , and p r e f e r a b l e t o computing " d i f f e r e n c e " s c o r e s by s u b t r a c t i n g consumption p r o p o r t i o n s from one year t o the n e x t . To n o r m a l i z e the d i s t r i b u t i o n somewhat, as w e l l as t o c r e a t e measures comparable t o t h o s e employed i n e c o n o m e t r i c a n a l y s e s , the n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m of t h e s e s c o r e s i s t a k e n . T h i s p r o v i d e s s c o r e s r e p r e s e n t i n g the l e v e l of change among t e s t h o useholds i n on- t o o f f - p e a k consumption d u r i n g the t h r e e summers under the e x p e r i m e n t a l t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s , and the f i r s t summer o f f the r a t e s . These are e q u a l t o the r e s i d u a l i z e d n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m i c r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k consumption d u r i n g t h e s e p e r i o d s , f o r which the b a s e l i n e summer has been p a r t i a l l e d o u t . 8 8 As an outcome of o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g change as r e s i d u a l s from r e g r e s s i o n , the computed s c o r e s a r e u n c o r r e l a t e d w i t h p r i o r usage l e v e l s . Any d i f f e r e n c e s found i n t h e s e r e s i d u a l i z e d v a r i a b l e s w i l l be due t o f a c t o r s o t h e r than i n i t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , the v a r i a n c e of t h e s e v a r i a b l e s w i l l have had the s i z e a b l e e f f e c t s due t o p r i o r usage removed, and what remains has g r e a t e r l i k e l i h o o d of b e i n g r e l a t e d t o n o n - s y s t e m a t i c (and unmeasured f a c t o r s ) . For t h i s r e a s o n , e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a n c e i n these dependent measures becomes more d i f f i c u l t , and the R 2's from such a n a l y s e s tend t o be low. 117 4. 7 Independent Measures Economic i n c e n t i v e , the p r i n c i p a l exogenous v a r i a b l e i n t h i s s t u d y , w i l l be r e p r e s e n t e d u s i n g the p r i c e r a t i o f o r on- t o o f f - p e a k c o s t f o r e l e c t r i c i t y ( e i t h e r 8:1, 4:1 or 2:1 per k i l o w a t t h o u r consumed). In a d d i t i o n , s e v e r a l s o c i o d e m o g r a p h i c h o u s i n g and a p p l i a n c e s t o c k v a r i a b l e s known t o i n f l u e n c e e l e c t r i c i t y consumption w i l l be i n c l u d e d as i n d i c a t i o n s of a f a m i l y ' s a b i l i t y t o respond t o t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . These i n c l u d e the s i z e of the r e s i d e n c e , the number of h o u s e h o l d members and an summary s c a l e of a p p l i a n c e s i n which each has been w e i g h t e d by an ex p e c t e d monthly usage f a c t o r p r o v i d e d by the e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y ( E d i s o n E l e c t r i c I n s t i t u t e , 1977; E l e c t r i c Power R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , 1979). A measure of knowledge was f i r s t a s s e s s e d by a s e r i e s of q u e s t i o n s c o n t a i n e d on the midstream q u e s t i o n n a i r e . Respondents were asked t o r e p o r t t h e i r p r i c e r a t i o , t h e summer peak h o u r s , t h e w i n t e r peak h o u r s , and t o make a s e l e c t i o n from among m u l t i p l e c h o i c e items i n d i c a t i n g how much h i g h e r the on-peak p r i c e was. These q u e s t i o n s were r e p e a t e d f o r the e x i t s u r v e y e x c e p t respondents gave answers based on p a s t r e c o l l e c t i o n s . Together th e s e s c a l e s p r o v i d e comparable measures of knowledge a t two p o i n t s i n t i m e . B e h a v i o u r a l commitment, the p r i n c i p a l a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e , was a l s o measured i n an i d e n t i c a l f a s h i o n on both t h e midstream and e x i t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s . The items c o m p r i s i n g 1 18 t h i s s c a l e a r e c o n t a i n e d i n T a b l e 4.6. The f i r s t i t e m of t h i s s c a l e a s s e s s e s moral o b l i g a t i o n t o s h i f t e l e c t r i c i t y consumption t o o f f - p e a k hours and i s analogous t o Schwartz's (1977) p e r s o n a l norm. The second s c a l e item ("... we f e e l we s h o u l d ...") i s a measure of b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n as d e s c r i b e d by F i s h b e i n ( A j z e n and F i s h b e i n , 1980; F i s h b e i n and A j z e n , 1975). In a d d i t i o n , two items t o r e p r e s e n t commitment and importance have been added t o the s c a l e t o f u r t h e r r e p r e s e n t the c o n a t i v e component of a t t i t u d e . For responses t o the midstream the i n t e r - i t e m r e l i a b i l i t y ( a l p h a ) of t h i s s c a l e i s .79, and f o r the e x i t survey i t i s .82. Thus, taken t o g e t h e r t h i s s e t of v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g a t t i t u d e , economic i n c e n t i v e , a b i l i t y and knowledge c o m p r i s e s a r e a s o n a b l e group of f a c t o r s t o p r e d i c t b e h a v i o u r over a f o u r year p e r i o d , t h e r e b y a l l o w i n g a g e n e r a l assessment of the i n f l u e n c e of the a t t i t u d i n a l c o n s t r u c t i n a f f e c t i n g b e h a v i o u r over t i m e . 4.8 L i m i t a t i o n s t o the Study A l l s t u d i e s have l i m i t a t i o n s which r e s t r i c t the c r e d i b i l i t y and g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the f i n d i n g s , and t h i s one i s no e x c e p t i o n . The f o l l o w i n g a r e m a t t e r s which s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d when e v a l u a t i n g the f i n d i n g s t o be p r e s e n t e d h e r e . 1 19 TABLE 4.6 B e h a v i o u r a l Commitment S c a l e Mid Survey: mean=l5.29 s.d=3.57 min=6 max=l9 alpha=.79 E x i t Survey: mean=11.67 s.d=3.22 min=5 max=lO alpha=.82 1. As a f a m i l y , do you f e e l any moral o b l i g a t i o n t o reduce usage of e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g the peak l o a d p e r i o d ? ( P l e a s e check one) Some o b l i g a t i o n not t o reduce peak l o a d usage. No o b l i g a t i o n e i t h e r way S l i g h t o b l i g a t i o n t o reduce peak l o a d usage Somewhat more o b l i g a t i o n t o reduce peak l o a d usage S t r o n g o b l i g a t i o n t o reduce peak l o a d usage 2. In our f a m i l y , we f e e l we s h o u l d arrange our h o u s e h o l d s c h e d u l e t o use major a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k p e r i o d s D e f i n i t e l y Agree P r o b a b l y Agree P r o b a b l y D i s a g r e e D e f i n i t e l y D i s a g r e e 3. For some f a m i l i e s , t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s are one of t h e i r most i m p o r t a n t h o u s e h o l d c o n c e r n s . To o t h e r f a m i l i e s , they a r e o n l y of minor c o n c e r n , r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r h o u s e h o l d problems. Which of the f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t s b e s t d e s c r i b e s your f e e l i n g s about t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g ? Our h o u s e h o l d I s s t r o n g l y committed t o r e d u c i n g e l e c t r i c i t y usage d u r i n g on-peak p e r i o d s I s somewhat committed t o r e d u c i n g e l e c t r i c i t y usage d u r i n g on-peak p e r i o d s I s s l i g h t l y committed t o r e d u c i n g e l e c t r i c i t y usage d u r i n g on-peak p e r i o d s I s not committed one way or the o t h e r t o r e d u c i n g e l e c t r i c i t y consumption d u r i n g on-peak p e r i o d s Has some commitment not t o reduce e l e c t r i c i t y usage d u r i n g on-peak p e r i o d s 4. In our f a m i l y , r e d u c i n g the amount of e l e c t r i c i t y we use on-peak i s E x t r e m e l y Important Somewhat Important N e i t h e r Important nor Unimportant Somewhat Unimportant E x t r e m e l y Unimportant 120 4.8.1 The Household as the U n i t of A n a l y s i s In c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the s e v e r a l measures d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r , i t s h o u l d be emphasized t h a t i n t h i s r e s e a r c h the u n i t of a n a l y s i s i s the ho u s e h o l d r a t h e r than the i n d i v i d u a l s which comprise i t . Here two t h i n g s a r e i m p o r t a n t . F i r s t , a s i n g l e measure t o r e p r e s e n t the e n t i r e h o u s e h o l d of f a m i l y " a t t i t u d e " i s employed. T h i s i s not i n t e n d e d t o suggest t h a t a . t h e o r y of a t t i t u d e s f o r m u l a t e d a t the i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l can be a p p l i e d w i t h o u t problems a t the aggregate l e v e l . Without doubt each i n d i v i d u a l i n the ti m e - o f - d a y h ouseholds has h i s or her own view and f u n c t i o n s a c c o r d i n g l y . The use of a summary measure p u r p o r t i n g t o r e p r e s e n t t h e s e views i s somewhat q u e s t i o n a b l e , and may r e s u l t i n s i z e a b l e r e p o r t i n g e r r o r . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , a t the time more d e t a i l e d p r o c e d u r e s f o r enumerating e i t h e r i n d i v i d u a l a t t i t u d e s or a more f i n e l y d e v e l o p e d concept of group a t t i t u d e was not f e a s i b l e , and i t was. n e c e s s a r y t o r e l y on a summary " i n f o r m a n t s " a c c o u n t . Here the pr o c e d u r e was t o encourage respondents t o c o n s u l t and c o l l a b o r a t e w i t h o t h e r h o usehold members w h i l e c o m p l e t i n g q u e s t i o n n a i r e s by p r o v i d i n g r esponses t o a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s which r e p r e s e n t e d as c l o s e l y as p o s s i b l e everyone's vie w . W h i l e such a measure o b v i o u s l y i g n o r e s much of the v a r i a b i l i t y i n a t t i t u d e s among household members, i t i s s t i l l f e l t t h a t the i n t r a - h o u s e h o l d v a r i a b i l i t y i n a t t i t u d e s i s l e s s than i n t e r - h o u s e h o l d 121 v a r i a b i l i t y , and f o r t h i s r e a son t h a t the measure can be r e a s o n a b l y employed t o p r e d i c t d i f f e r e n c e s i n consumption p a t t e r n s a c r o s s h o u s e h o l d s . In a d d i t i o n , an argument can be made f o r such a measure b e i n g p r e f e r a b l e from t h e p e r s p e c t i v e of s m a l l group t h e o r y than the a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h , which i s t o c o l l e c t and average the responses from a l l h o usehold members. That i s , t h e r e i s w i d e l y acknowledged agreement among s m a l l group t h e o r i s t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the assumption t h a t groups r e p r e s e n t more than the summation of the i n d i v i d u a l elements which comprise them ( e . g . , C a r t w r i g h t and Zander, 1968: 5 7 ) . R e p o r t s from even a s i n g l e respondent i n which the group i s the o b j e c t of comment appear c l o s e r t o c a p t u r i n g t h i s n o t i o n than methods which a g g r e g a t e the s e p a r a t e responses of i n d i v i d u a l s . F i n a l l y , the measures employed, w h i l e somewhat c r u d e , a r e s t i l l c o n s i s t e n t i n terms of measurement l e v e l w i t h the dependent v a r i a b l e , e l e c t r i c i t y consumption, which i s a l s o a t the h o u s e h o l d l e v e l . On b a l a n c e , t h e r e f o r e , the approach i s d e f e n s i b l e . S t i l l , i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t i t i s a second-best approach i n which t h e degree of r e p o r t i n g e r r o r may v a r y s y s t e m a t i c a l l y w i t h a host of household and l i f e s t y l e f a c t o r s , and f o r t h i s reason the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of r e s u l t s must be c o n s i d e r e d w i t h c a u t i o n . 122 T h i s l e a d s t o the second t h i n g t o be a v o i d e d when u s i n g the household as the u n i t of a n a l y s i s . T h i s i s the tendency t o t r e a t i t as a u n i t a r y o b j e c t . Households do not use e l e c t r i c i t y or have o t h e r human q u a l i t i e s , the peopl e t h a t c o m p r i s e them do. I t i s easy t o f o r g e t t h i s and t r e a t the h o u s e h o l d as an e n t i t y w i t h o u t r e g a r d t o the human dynamics which u n d e r l y i t . Indeed, the whole range of i n t e r a c t i o n s among hou s e h o l d members i s a v a l u a b l e f u t u r e a r e a of r e s e a r c h n e c e s s a r y t o the u n d e r s t a n d i n g of how b e h a v i o u r i n response t o t h i s experiment o c c u r r e d . W h i l e i n v e s t i g a t i n g such p r o c e s s e s i s not a g o a l of the p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h , t h e i r i mportance i s acknowledged. Hence, any tendency here of a p p e a r i n g t o be i n d i f f e r e n t towards the a c t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l s which comprise t h e home s h o u l d be re g a r d e d more as an e r r o r of s t y l e , r a t h e r than one of purpose. 4.8.2 C r o s s - S e c t i o n a l v e r s u s E x p e r i m e n t a l Data T h i s study i s based upon -a l a r g e s c a l e f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t , but the methodology i s not s t r i c t l y e x p e r i m e n t a l . The e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t f a c t o r s m a n i p u l a t e d here i n v o l v e o n l y the peak l e n g t h and p r i c i n g v a r i a b l e s . The r e m a i n i n g f a c t o r s under i n v e s t i g a t i o n , most i m p o r t a n t l y a t t i t u d e s , were g a t h e r e d u s i n g c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l methods w h i l e the experiment was i n p r o g r e s s . Thus i n s o f a r as t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e c o n c e r n e d , t h e r e i s no b a ^ i s f o r 1 23 a t t r i b u t i n g c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s among the v a r i a b l e s b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d . The a n a l y s i s p r o c e d u r e s which a r e employed ar e based upon c o r r e l a t i o n a l methods, and c a u s a t i o n between the f a c t o r s e x p l o r e d can o n l y be i n f e r r e d , not e x p r e s s e d w i t h c e r t a i n t y . T h i s f e a t u r e of the stu d y has s e v e r a l i m p l i c a t i o n s . P r i n c i p a l l y , we can never be c e r t a i n of the i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d e . We may presume t h a t a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s o c c u r s and i n f l u e n c e s b e h a v i o u r , y e t the e v i d e n c e of i t s e x i s t e n c e i s o n l y i n f e r r e d based on survey measures, and i t s c a u s a l r e l a t i o n w i t h b e h a v i o u r i s a t t r i b u t e d from the model's s p e c i f i c a t i o n . A l t e r n a t i v e c a u s a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s abound. F or example, beha v i o u r may precede and "cause" a t t i t u d e , and t h e r e i s t h e o r e t i c a l support f o r t h i s p o s i t i o n from both the b e h a v i o u r i s t and s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n i s t t r a d i t i o n s . W h i l e i n the models suggested here t h e s e p o s i t i o n s have not been i g n o r e d , t h e r e has been the s t r o n g u n d e r l y i n g assumption t h a t a t t i t u d e s a l s o i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r . F u r t h e r , t h e r e a re numerous o t h e r c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s which c o u l d be e x p r e s s e d among the a t t i t u d i n a l and o t h e r c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l measures i n v e s t i g a t e d , o t h e r than th o s e p r o v i d e d h e r e . In f a c t , the o n l y way i n which the c a u s a l e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e s upon b e h a v i o u r c o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d would be by a t r u e experiment making comparisons on outcomes w i t h a c o n t r o l group f o l l o w i n g m a n i p u l a t i o n of a t t i t u d i n a l and 1 24 o t h e r t r e a t m e n t f a c t o r s . T h i s was not done h e r e . Thus the p r i n c i p a l l i m i t a t i o n imposed by t h i s methodology i s t h a t comparisons of the e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e s w i l l not be made w i t h the c o n t r o l group. The r e s t r i c t i o n of the a n a l y s i s t o o n l y t h o s e customers on w h i c h a t t i t u d i n a l measures a r e a v a i l a b l e can l e a d t o e s t i m a t i o n e r r o r s . F u r t h e r , even r e c o g n i t i o n of t h i s problem does not p r o v i d e a s o l u t i o n , s i n c e parameter e s t i m a t e s c o m b i n i n g p r i c e and a t t i t u d e , and i n c l u d i n g the c o n t r o l group, s t i l l cannot be performed. Thus, i n t h i s r e s e a r c h , t h e r e can o n l y be the s u g g e s t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s e x i s t i n g between p r i c e and a t t i t u d e , and t h e i r j o i n t e f f e c t s upon b e h a v i o u r . 4.8.3 Sampling In t h i s s tudy the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the f i n d i n g s i s somewhat • l i m i t e d due t o s a m p l i n g e x c l u s i o n s . These p r o c e d u r e s were aimed a t i m p r o v i n g s a m p l i n g e f f i c i e n c y , and r e s u l t e d i n o n l y f o r t y - f o u r p e r c e n t of the base p o p u l a t i o n b e i n g i n c l u d e d i n the s a m p l i n g f r a m e . 9 The b u l k of t h e s e e x c l u s i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d s m a l l consumers and, i n terms of the p r o d u c t i o n l o a d of the u t i l i t y , the sample i s somewhat more 9 I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t the f i g u r e of f o r t y - f o u r p e r c e n t i s an u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n . I t has been suggested ( H e b e r l e i n , 1983) t h a t the a p parent l a r g e number of e x c l u s i o n s i s e x a g g e r a t e d due t o some of the c a t e g o r i e s of e x c l u s i o n o v e r l a p p i n g . For example, f o r t y - n i n e p e r c e n t of the s e a s o n a l customers which were e x c l u d e d a l s o f e l l i n t o t h e c a t e g o r y of u s i n g l e s s t h a t 100 kwh on average per month. A number of o t h e r c a t e g o r i e s were s i m i l a r l y o v e r l a p p i n g . However, the d a t a on the a c t u a l number of r e s i d e n c e s a f f e c t e d i n t h i s way a r e u n a v a i l a b l e . 1 25 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . A p p r o x i m a t l e y s i x t y - t w o p e r c e n t of a l l e l e c t r i c i t y consumed a n n u a l l y by the r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t o r o c c u r s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e homes i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s a m p l i n g frame. N e v e r t h e l e s s , the number of e x c l u s i o n s make i t appear t h a t the sample has poor g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y . I n terms of s m a l l e r consumers t h i s i s q u i t e t r u e : i t would be wrong t o attempt t o g e n e r a l i z e the f i n d i n g s p r o v i d e d here t o apartment d w e l l e r s or s e a s o n a l customers, f o r example. By and l a r g e , the sample r e p r e s e n t s the p o p u l a t i o n of l a r g e r , more a f f l u e n t and s t a b l e h ouseholds s e r v e d by t h i s u t i l i t y , and i t seems l i k e l y t h a t such households may a l s o v a r y s y s t e m a t i c a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o both t h e i r i n t e n t i o n s and a b i l i t i e s t o respond t o such r a t e s . T h e r e f o r e , a t t e m p t i n g t o g e n e r a l i z e beyond t h i s p o p u l a t i o n i s q u e s t i o n a b l e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s wrong t o assume the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h i s sample i s u n i n t e n t i o n a l . In terms of a c c o u n t i n g f o r the p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t , the s e l e c t e d sample i s p r o b a b l y n e a r e r t o the t a r g e t p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t , which i s c o m p r i s e d m a i n l y of l a r g e r consumers. S i n c e s m a l l consumers use so l i t t l e e l e c t r i c i t y , e i t h e r on-or o f f - p e a k , any e f f o r t s they make t o s h i f t consumption would l i k e l y have l i t t l e e f f e c t on the l o a d c u r v e of the u t i l i t y . The weakness of the sample has more t o do w i t h the i n a b i l i t y t o s p e c i f y what l e v e l of consumption i s s u f f i c i e n t t o make ti m e - o f - d a y r a t e s f e a s i b l e , and t h e r e f o r e what 1 2 6 a c c u r a t e l y d e f i n e s the p o p u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t . S i n c e i t was unknown at the time t o what c l a s s of r e s i d e n t i a l consumer ti m e - o f - d a y r a t e s would u l t i m a t e l y a p p l y , the s a m p l i n g may have been too l i b e r a l w i t h r e s p e c t t o s e l e c t i n g the mi d d l e l e v e l s of consumption. Only i n t e n s i v e a n a l y s e s of v a r i o u s consumer c l a s s e s w i l l i n d i c a t e what consumption l e v e l s a re most r e s p o n s i v e t o such p r i c i n g . Pending t h i s , i t i s h i g h l y p o s s i b l e t h a t the sample employed here e r r s i n making t o o few, r a t h e r than too many, e x c l u s i o n s . There i s a second i s s u e c o n c e r n i n g s a m p l i n g . T h i s has to^ do w i t h t h e g o a l s of survey v e r s u s e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s e a r c h . W h i l e r e s u l t s from p r o b a b i l i t y s u r v e y s a r e i n t e n d e d t o be g e n e r a l i z e d t o p o p u l a t i o n s , t h i s i s not a p r i n c i p a l g o a l of e x p e r i m e n t s . R a t h e r , here the i n t e n t i o n i s t o u t i l i z e e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n t r o l and c a r e f u l measurement i n o r d e r t o e s t i m a t e e f f e c t s and more r i g o r o u s l y l i m i t a l t e r n a t i v e c a u s a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . In t h i s p r o j e c t the p l a n n e r s ' major purpose was t o e s t i m a t e the e f f e c t s of the e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t v a r i a b l e s . T h i s was f a c i l i t a t e d by a s s i g n i n g the s p e c i a l meters i n o r d e r t o improve the l i k e l i h o o d of the d a t a b e i n g c o l l e c t e d b e i n g c o n s i s t e n t and r e l i a b l e . T h e r e f o r e , when d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the g o a l s of g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y v e r s u s c o n t r o l a r o s e , they were u s u a l l y d e c i d e d i n f a v o u r of the e x p e r i m e n t a l method. 127 4.8.4 G e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of R e s u l t s from the P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Group A f u r t h e r i s s u e which may have i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the f i n d i n g s from t h i s r e s e a r c h has t o do w i t h the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l sample. T h i s group, c o m p r i s e d of the former n i n e - h o u r customers r e m a i n i n g i n the experiment a t the c o n c l u s i o n and a random group of c o n t r o l s , r e p r e s e n t s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 200 h ouseholds r a t h e r than the over 500 which were i n i t i a l l y s a m p l e d . 1 0 For the a n a l y s i s of a t t i t u d e s , which matches t e s t customer consumption w i t h r e t u r n s from the e x i t and midstream s u r v e y s , the sample s i z e i s even s m a l l e r ( n = l 0 5 ) . T h i s r e d u c t i o n i n the sample o c c u r r e d due t o the requirement t h a t the t i m e - o f - d a y meters be employed i n o t h e r s e c t o r s of the u t i l i t y ' s s e r v i c e a r e a . I t i s , of c o u r s e , r e c o g n i z e d t h a t r e d u c t i o n s i n sample s i z e a f f e c t s the s t a b i l i t y of e s t i m a t e s . I n t h i s case r e d u c t i o n i n the sample by a f a c t o r of about t w o - t h i r d s r e s u l t s i n as much as a d o u b l i n g of s t a n d a r d e r r o r s , 1 0 See f o o t n o t e 5. T h i s sample does not i n c l u d e e l e c t r i c i t y space h e a t i n g t e s t or c o n t r o l c u s t omers, or those on the t h r e e - p a r t r a t e . 128 depending upon v a r i a b l e s . 1 1 However, even c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h i s f a c t should not s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r the c o n c l u s i o n s to be drawn from the post-experimental a n a l y s i s s i n c e the sample s t i l l i s not unduly s m a l l . Of more i n t e r e s t i n t h i s respect i s the q u e s t i o n of whether t h i s sample's s e l e c t i o n i n anyway a f f e c t e d the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the a n a l y s i s from these data. In t h i s case the q u e s t i o n being r a i s e d has to do with whether the nine-hour group c o u l d respond d i f f e r e n t l y than e i t h e r the s i x or twelve-hour groups once the experimental r a t e s ended. I t would be convenient to be able to g e n e r a l i z e from the f i n d i n g s p r o v i d e d by the post-experimental consumption of the nine-hour group, and assume that the behaviours of the remaining, unmonitored households i n the s i x and twelve-hour groups would be s i m i l a r . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , while such an assumption i s a p p e a l i n g , i t i s not n e c e s s a r i l y c o r r e c t . F i r s t , even i f homogeneity of response occurs with r e s p e c t to behaviours a c r o s s peak lengths d u r i n g the experimental r a t e s , i t cannot 1 1 The standard e r r o r of estimates of course v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g to the v a r i a n c e of the v a r i a b l e under i n v e s t i g a t i o n , as w e l l as by the sample s i z e . The estimate of the i n c r e a s e i n standard e r r o r p r o v i d e d here i s based upon the maximum v a r i a n c e p o s s i b l e f o r a dichotomous v a r i a b l e ( i . e . , .25), as w e l l as the minimum sample s i z e ( t a k i n g i n t o account m i s s i n g data) a v a i l a b l e f o r computations from the post-experimental group (N=105) and the comparable sample s i z e on the same v a r i a b l e f o r a l l t e s t cutomers remaining i n the experiment at the c o n c l u s i o n (N=322). 1 2 9 be assumed t h a t t h i s w i l l a l s o be a f e a t u r e of b e h a v i o u r s f o l l o w i n g c o m p l e t i o n s of the r a t e s . P o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l b e h a v i o u r may c o n s t i t u t e a d i f f e r e n t type of a c t i v i t y t h a t t h a t which e x i s t e d d u r i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . S i n c e t h i s new b e h a v i o u r i s not b e i n g observed among a l l former t i m e - o f - d a y c u s t o m e r s , i t cannot be c o n c l u d e d t h a t the nin e - h o u r group's b e h a v i o u r s r e p r e s e n t i t . F or example, i n the case of the s h o r t e s t peak l e n g t h , the s i x - h o u r group, the e f f o r t r e q u i r e d t o use a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k t i m e s may be r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e , and f o l l o w i n g the experiment even i n d i f f e r e n c e t o the former peak t i m e s may not r e s u l t i n many changes t o a p p l i a n c e s c h e d u l i n g . Hence, former n i n e and twe l v e - h o u r customers may s h i f t consumption back t o p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l l e v e l s w h i l e the s i x - h o u r group does n o t . T h i s may appear u n l i k e l y , but t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of the former s i x - h o u r and tw e l v e - h o u r r e s p o n d i n g d e i f f e r e n t l y f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n of the r a t e s s t i l l cannot be o v e r l o o k e d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , n e i t h e r can i t be d i r e c t l y a s s e s s e d . S i n c e p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption on the s i x and twe l v e - h o u r groups were not c o l l e c t e d , t h e i r b e h a v i o u r s f o l l o w i n g the experiment w i l l always remain a m y s t e r y . Some i n d i r e c t e v i d e n c e of t h e i r l i k e l y b e h a v i o u r s f o l l o w i n g the experiment may be a v a i l a b l e based on t h e i r r e s p o n s e s t o the e x i t q u e s t i o n n a i r e . These can be compared w i t h responses from the nin e - h o u r group, w i t h homogeneity of responses a c r o s s a l l former t e s t groups i n d i c a t i n g l i k e l y s i m i l a r •v. b e h a v i o u r a l p a t t e r n s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s s t i l l i m p o r t a n t 130 t o acknowledge t h a t the a c t u a l b e h a v i o u r s of the s i x and t w e l v e - h o u r households w i l l never be known. S i n c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the nine-hour t r e a t m e n t group i n t h i s e xperiment c o n s t i t u t e s a unique e x p e r i e n c e , the g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the f i n d i n g s must be undertaken w i t h extreme c a u t i o n . 4.8.5 R e l i a b i l i t y and V a l i d i t y In r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s i n which the d e s i g n i s both c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l and l o n g i t u d i n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n of p o t e n t i a l r e l i a b i l i t y problems becomes more i m p o r t a n t . T h i s i s the case because i n t h e s e i n s t a n c e s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the s t a b i l i t y of measures become more d i f f i c u l t . That i s , one c r i t e r i o n i n the assessment of a r e l i a b l e measure i s i t s s t a b i l i t y over t i m e . A r e l i a b l e measure i s e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e s t a b l e e s t i m a t e s over the s h o r t term. The c o n v e n t i o n a l method f o r a s s e s s i n g t h i s a s p e c t of r e l i a b i l i t y i s the t e s t - r e t e s t method i n which r e s p o n s e s are e l i c i t e d from the same group of respondents a second time f o l l o w i n g a s h o r t d e l a y . The a s s o c i a t i o n between the measure a t two p o i n t s i n time i s one i n d i c a t i o n of i t s r e l i a b i l i t y . 1 2 1 2 For a g e n e a l d i s c u s s i o n of r e l i a b i l i t y , see L o r d and N o v i c k , 1968; N u n n a l l y , 1967; or Z e l l e r and Carmines, 1980. For d i s c u s s i o n and r e v i e w of the debate over the s t a b i l i t y i s s u e w i t h r e g a r d t o r e l i a b i l i t y see H e i s e , 1969; W i l e y and W i l e y , 1970; and Hargens, e t a l . , 1976. 131 In c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l , l o n g i t u d i n a l r e s e a r c h the i s s u e of what c o n s t i t u t e s the a s s o c i a t i o n between i d e n t i c a l measures over time becomes p r o b l e m a t i c . I s a low a s s o c i a t i o n t o be a t t r i b u t e d t o low r e l i a b i l i t y (poor s t a b i l i t y ) , or t o a c t u a l change which has taken p l a c e over time? S i n c e i n the m a j o r i t y of l o n g i t u d i n a l a n a l y s e s some type of p r e d i c t e d change forms an i m p o r t a n t b a s i s f o r t h e s t u d y , l e s s than p e r f e c t , or even low, c o r r e l a t i o n s between i n d e n t i c a l measures over time i s f r e q u e n t l y a n t i c i p a t e d . However, such a s s o c i a t i o n s may not r e p r e s e n t . s u p p o r t f o r an h y p o t h e s i z e d change i n a v a r i a b l e i f the measure i s an u n r e l i a b l e one. T h i s problem a f f e c t s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the c r o s s e c t i o n a l measures e l i c i t e d from t i m e - o f - d a y h o u s e h o l d s i n t h i s s t u d y . A t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n and o t h e r c o g n i t i v e measures a r e b e i n g compared f o r p e r i o d s d u r i n g and a f t e r the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s were i n e f f e c t , and the s i z e of t h e s e c o r r e l a t i o n s w i l l be used t o a s s e s s the permanence of the a t t i t u d i n a l c o n s t r u c t . W h i l e t h e s e measures g e n e r a l l y have r e a s o n a b l e i n t e r n a l r e l i a b i l i t i e s (see Chapter 5, T a b l e 5.1), i t must be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t the obse r v e d c o r r e l a t i o n s may be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the o t h e r w i s e poor r e l i a b i l i t i e s ( i . e . , s t a b i l i t i e s ) of these measures, r a t h e r than been i n d i c a t i v e of any r e a l change, or l a c k of i t , which has gone on. 1 32 T h i s problem i s made more a c u t e f o r another r e a s o n . That i s , s i n c e r e p o r t s a r e b e i n g made on a h o u s e h o l d r a t h e r than an i n d i v i d u a l b a s i s , i t i s e n t i r e l y p o s s i b l e t h a t the c o m p o s i t i o n of the h o u s e h o l d u n i t has changed between a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of measures. Thus, w h i l e i t was not p o s s i b l e f o r the tenancy of the r e s i d e n c e t o change hands i n o r d e r f o r i t t o remain i n the e x p e r i m e n t , i t i s e n t i r e l y p o s s i b l e f o r some changes i n h o u s e h o l d membership t o o c c u r between a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the v a r i o u s survey i n s t r u m e n t s . Thus, c h i l d r e n , spouses, o t h e r f a m i l y members, b o a r d e r s , e t c . may have moved i n or o u t . The f a c t t h a t i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t the c o m p o s i t i o n of a l l households was i d e n t i c a l d u r i n g every a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the survey q u e s t i o n n a i r e s i s l i k e l y t o have d e t e r r e d f u r t h e r from the o v e r a l l r e l i a b i l i t y of t h e s e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l measures. The f a c t t h a t no s t e p s were taken at the time of the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s of these s u r v e y s t o a s s e s s s y s t e m a t i c a l l y the r e l i a b i l i t i e s of measures t h r o u g h a r e t e s t method means t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the a t t i t u d i n a l and o t h e r c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e s over time a r e s u b j e c t t o some do u b t s . F o r t u n a t e l y the same r e l i a b i l i t y problems do not a p p l y t o the dependent v a r i a b l e , peak energy consumption. I t i s assumed t h a t t h i s has been measured w i t h o u t e r r o r , based on the household's a c t u a l consumption as r e p o r t e d by the s p e c i a l t i m e - o f - d a y meter. Even changes i n household c o m p o s i t i o n l e a d i n g t o o v e r a l l i n c r e a s e s or d e c r e a s e s i n the amount of energy consumed s h o u l d not have a f f e c t e d t h i s 1 33 measure s e v e r e l y s i n c e h o usehold s i z e i s e f f e c t i v e l y c o n t r o l l e d by v i r t u e of the computed dependent v a r i a b l e b e i n g the r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k usage ( i . e . , a p r o p o r t i o n ) , r a t h e r than a measure of o v e r a l l consumption. N e v e r t h e l e s s , these meters d i d o c c a s i o n a l l y f a i l , e s p e c i a l l y d u r i n g the e a r l y phases of the s t u d y . When t h i s has o c c u r r e d the s o l u t i o n has been t o s u b s t i t u t e sample means f o r the m i s s i n g d a t a . In terms of the e r r o r r e s u l t i n g from t h i s p r o c e d u r e , the e f f e c t i s t o a t t e n u a t e the s i z e of c o r r e l a t i o n and r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , a type I I e r r o r which i s not w h o l l y u n d e s i r a b l e f o r s c i e n t i s t s . F i n a l l y , t h e r e are c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of v a l i d i t y t o be taken i n t o account w i t h r e s p e c t t o the v a r i a b l e s been employed h e r e . Perhaps the most s e r i o u s problem i s t h a t the major a t t i t u d i n a l measure, a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n , was c r e a t e d f o r the purposes of t h i s e x p e r i m e n t , and t h e r e f o r e has had l i t t l e o p p o r t u n i t y t o be e v a l u a t e d f o r c o n s t r u c t v a l i d i t y t h r o u g h a s e r i e s of r e p l i c a t i o n s . At l e a s t t h i s i s p a r t i a l l y t r u e . As mentioned a l r e a d y the c r e a t i o n of t h i s c o n s t r u c t was i n p a r t by t h e c o m b i n a t i o n of items r e s p r e s e n t i n g S c h w a r t z ' s p e r s o n a l norm and F i s h b e i n ' s b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n . W h i l e n e i t h e r of t h e s e measures p u r p o r t s d i r e c t l y t o r e p r e s e n t the c o n a t i v e , or b e h a v i o u r a l d i s p o s i t i o n a l , a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e , each has r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e s u p p o r t over s e v e r a l y e a r s and a wide c o m b i n a t i o n of s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the credence of t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i n c o m b i n a t i o n 1 34 a c t i n g t o c o n s t i t u t e a v a l i d measure of a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n has s t i l l not been shown. 1 35 4.9 Chapter Summary T h i s c h a p t e r has p r o v i d e d a d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n of the W i s c o n s i n t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t , i t s h i s t o r y and p r o c e d u r e s . Over the f o u r y e a r s of t h i s f i e l d e xperiment some 700 homes i n n o r t h e a s t e r n W i s c o n s i n p a r t i c i p a t e d i n a f u l l y c r o s s e d , 3x3 f a c t o r i a l d e s i g n which matched v a r i o u s peak l e n g t h s w i t h on- and o f f - p e a k p r i c e s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y . P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the experiment was mandatory and h o u s e h o l d s were randomly s e l e c t e d u s i n g a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e random s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e which ensured the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of r e a s o n a b l y e q u a l numbers of s m a l l , average and l a r g e u s e r s based upon 1975 consumption l e v e l s . For the year p r i o r t o t h e s p e c i a l r a t e s g o i n g i n t o e f f e c t b a s e l i n e d a t a on h o u s e h o l d consumption p a t t e r n s were g a t h e r e d , and a c o n t r o l group p r o v i d e s a f u r t h e r b a s i s f o r a s s e s s i n g changes i n b e h a v i o u r i n response t o the t i m e - o f - u s e r a t e s . In the development s t a g e s of t h i s p r o j e c t the p l a n n e r s implemented a number of d e c i s i o n s f o r r e d u c i n g response b i a s and i n c r e a s i n g s a m p l i n g e f f i c i e n c y . These i n c l u d e mandatory p a r t i c i p a t i o n , no paybacks, approximate communication p a t t e r n s and t h r e e y e a r d u r a t i o n of the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s . However, a number of e x c l u s i o n s t o the s a m p l i n g frame r e d u c e d t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h i s sample t o 44 p e r c e n t of t h e r e s i d e n t i a l p o p u l a t i o n . I t was argued t h a t the m a j o r i t y of t h e s e e x c l u s i o n s -- s e a s o n a l customers and s m a l l u s e r s — a r e not r e a l l y c a n d i d a t e s f o r t i m e - o f - d a y 136 p r i c i n g , and t h a t the sampled households p r o b a b l y b e t t e r r e p r e s e n t f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n s of i n t e r e s t w i t h r e s p e c t t o such p r i c i n g . Customer c o n t a c t s d u r i n g the c o u r s e of the s t u d y , t h r o u g h b i l l s and u t i l i t y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s were d e s c r i b e d . In a d d i t i o n , p a r t i c i p a n t households took p a r t i n t h r e e m a i l e d s u r v e y s . These q u e s t i o n n a i r e s a l l o w e d the assessment of s o c i o d e m o g r a p h i c , a p p l i a n c e , and a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s a t s e v e r a l s t a g e s throughout t h i s e x p e r i m e n t . The dependent and independent measures t o be employed i n t h i s comparison of a t t i t u d i n a l and economic f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g r e d u c t i o n s i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption were d i s c u s s e d . The c h a p t e r c o n c l u d e d w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n of a number of l i m i t a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s t u d y ' s d e s i g n which r e s t r i c t the c r e d i b i l i t y and g e n e r a l i z a b i l i t y of the f i n d i n g s . 1 37 Chapter 5 CHANGES IN ATTITUDES AND SELF-REPORTED BEHAVIOURS FOLLOWING THE EXPERIMENT 5 • 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n In t h i s and the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r the a n a l y s i s of b e h a v i o u r s and a t t i t u d e s d u r i n g and f o l l o w i n g the experiment i s p r o v i d e d . Chapter 6 examines changes i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption d u r i n g the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l p e r i o d among those households ( i . e . , the nin e - h o u r group) which c o n t i n u e d t o have consumption m o n i t o r e d . P r i o r t o t h i s , Chapter 5 fo c u s e s upon changes i n a t t i t u d e s and r e p o r t e d b e h a v i o u r s among the l a r g e r group of a l l former t e s t h o u s e h o l d s . The r e s u l t s from t h i s a n a l y s i s p r o v i d e the framework f o r r e l a t i n g a t t i t u d e s t o a c t u a l b e h a v i o u r a l change t a k i n g p l a c e once the f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e i s removed. F u r t h e r , i t i s imp o r t a n t t o examine the a s s o c i a t i o n of a t t i t u d e s over t i m e , and the r e l a t i o n s among them, s i n c e t h e o r e t i c i a n s f r e q u e n t l y argue t h a t they a r e e n d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t s , and are m a i n t a i n e d l a r g e l y on the b a s i s of c o n s i s t e n c y among o t h e r c o g n i t i v e e l e ments. Hence, the g o a l of t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o a s s e s s changes i n a t t i t u d e s , e s p e c i a l l y commitment, f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n of the e x p e r i m e n t , and i n t h i s way makes a p r e l i m i n a r y assessment of change, p r i o r t o examining a c t u a l consumption i n Chapter 6. 138 The o r g a n i z a t i o n of Chapter 5 i s a f o l l o w s . F i r s t , as an i n t r o d u c t i o n t o the more e l a b o r a t e models p r e s e n t e d l a t e r , t he a n a l y s i s from the r e s e a r c h by H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b), which i s the b a s i s of the extended work p r e s e n t e d h e r e , i s d i s c u s s e d . T h i s s i m p l i f i e s the p r e s e n t a t i o n of the s e l a t e r models, p r o v i d e s a p o i n t of compar i s o n , and f a c i l i t a t e s the d i s c u s s i o n of these models which, i t w i l l be seen, a r e l e s s s u p p o r t i v e of a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y than t h i s e a r l i e r r e s e a r c h . Next, a t t i t u d i n a l measures c o l l e c t e d by the midstream and e x i t s u r v e y s a re compared. Here the foc u s i s upon a t t i t u d i n a l commitment, the p r i n c i p a l a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e , and changes t o i t over t i m e . However, o t h e r a t t i t u d e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h commitment a r e d i s c u s s e d as w e l l . F i n a l l y , t he c h a p t e r examines r e p o r t e d b e h a v i o u r s . I f changes occur w i t h r e s p e c t t o the p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak, t h e s e s h o u l d be supporte d by r e p o r t e d a c t i o n s , as w e l l as by a t t i t u d e s . One of the drawbacks of t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t h a t the major dependent v a r i a b l e , p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak, w h i l e r e l i a b l e , i s not v e r y i n f o r m a t i v e w i t h r e s p e c t t o the a c t i v i t i e s of i n d i v i d u a l s o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n h o u s e h o l d s . 1 W h i l e u n r a v e l l i n g t h e s e i n t e r a c t i o n s i s t a n g e n t i a l t o the 1 In f a c t , i t i s n o t , s t r i c t l y s p e a k i n g , a b e h a v i o u r a t a l l , but r a t h e r a t r a c e measure which summarizes a s e t of m y r i a d a c t s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n homes which d e t e r m i n e when e l e c t r i c i t y i s consumed. 1 39 problem b e i n g a d d r e s s e d h e r e , i t would be h e l p f u l i f the d i s c u s s i o n c o u l d demonstrate a t l e a s t some r e l a t i o n s h i p between r e p o r t s of b e h a v i o u r s and a c t u a l consumption l e v e l s . For t h i s reason r e s p o n d e n t s ' r e p o r t s of a p p l i a n c e usage f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n of the experiment a r e of i n t e r e s t i n the development of models t o account f o r changes i n e l e c t r i c i t y consumption. 5.2 R e s u l t s f o r H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b) H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b) examine r e d u c t i o n s i n the on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption of hou s e h o l d s d u r i n g the t h i r d summer under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . The p r i n c i p a l model employed by t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 5.A. Here r e d u c t i o n s i n on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption a r e b e i n g a c c o u n t e d f o r by f o u r f a c t o r s . The two exogenous v a r i a b l e s , p r i c e and the a p p l i a n c e s t o c k , r e p r e s e n t p r i o r , s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s of households a f f e c t i n g peak e l e c t r i c i t y use over the s h o r t - t e r m . The a p p l i a n c e s t o c k i s i n c l u d e d s i n c e i t r e p r e s e n t s a b i l i t y , o r the o p p o r t u n i t y t o reduce peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption based on the a p p l i a n c e s which a re a v a i l a b l e . In g e n e r a l , the more e x t e n s i v e the a p p l i a n c e s t o c k , the g r e a t e r the a b i l i t y t o reduce consumption d u r i n g peak h o u r s . P r i c e , on the o t h e r hand, i s a n o t h e r s t r u c t u r a l i n f l u e n c e r e l a t e d t o peak consumption. I t i s , of c o u r s e , r e p r e s e n t e d by the r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k c o s t f o r 1 40 FIGURE 5.A E f f e c t s of P r i c e R a t i o , A p p l i a n c e S t o c k , Knowledge and Commitment on E l e c t r i c t y Consumption f o r T h i r d T e s t Summer P r i c e R a t i o _ ^ ^ ^ ^ \~ .06 1 > l 2 z -.08 2 | Commitment | .25 4 -.21" / | Knowledge | -.19* * »|Peak Consumption " " " / .11 2 - . 0 9 2 . . . . . . / . . . . . . . . | A p p l i a n c e Stock 1 >.05 ( n o n s i g n i f i c a n t ) 2 <.05 3 <.01 4 £.001 Adapted from H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b), F i g u r e 3. e l e c t r i c i t y — e i t h e r 2:1, 4:1 or 8:1 — ch a r g e d a c c o r d i n g t o when e l e c t r i c i t y i s consumed. In g e n e r a l , i t i s proposed t h a t the g r e a t e r t h i s r a t i o , the g r e a t e r the i n c e n t i v e t o a v o i d a p p l i a n c e usage d u r i n g peak h o u r s . However, i t must be noted t h a t the c o n t r o l group, f o r which the p r i c e f o r on-peak usage i s no d i f f e r e n t than t h a t f o r o f f - p e a k (a p r i c i n g r a t i o of 1:1), i s not i n c l u d e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . That i s , s i n c e the i n v e s t i g a t i o n c o n c e r n s the e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e toward t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g on b e h a v i o u r , the 141 c o n t r o l group cannot be i n c l u d e d as these households d i d not e x p e r i e n c e such p r i c i n g , and c o u l d not be e x p e c ted t o f o r m u l a t e a t t i t u d e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o i t . However, assuming the r e l a t i o n between the p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l and b e h a v i o u r a l change t o be l i n e a r , the r e s t r i c t i o n of the a n a l y s i s t o the t e s t group a l o n e may not be a problem. The two endogenous v a r i a b l e s i n the model r e p r e s e n t i m p o r t a n t c o g n i t i v e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g b e h a v i o u r . One of t h e s e , knowledge of the t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g s t r u c t u r e , i s i n c l u d e d because w i t h o u t knowledge of the peak times and d i f f e r e n c e s i n p r i c e s , i t would be i m p o s s i b l e t o respond t o the r a t e s . The a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e , commitment, i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r and r e p r e s e n t s household members' c o l l e c t i v e sense of o b l i g a t i o n and i n t e n t i o n t o reduce e l e c t r i c i t y consumption d u r i n g the peak p e r i o d s . Two q u e s t i o n s a r e posed by t h i s model: 1) t o what e x t e n t i s a t t i t u d e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r r e d u c t i o n s i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y use, and 2) what i s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between p r i c e and a t t i t u d e . The answers t o t h e s e a r e found by comparing the p a t h c o e f f i c i e n t s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e model. The s t a n d a r d i z e d , p a r t i a l r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between p r i c e and on-peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption i s l e s s than t h a t of b e h a v i o u r a l commitment by a s i z e a b l e degree (betas = - . 0 8 and -.27, r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . F u r t h e r , p r i c e has no s i g n i f i c a n t , d i r e c t e f f e c t on a t t i t u d e , and a q u i t e s m a l l ( .03) i n d i r e c t e f f e c t v i a knowledge. W h i l e t h i s model, does not e x p l i c a t e 142 the o r i g i n of a t t i t u d i n a l commitment, i t does suggest t h a t p r i c e and a t t i t u d e have q u i t e independent i n f l u e n c e s upon b e h a v i o u r , and t h a t , a t t h i s p o i n t i n the e x p e r i m e n t , the i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d e on r e d u c t i o n s t o peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption was g r e a t e r than t h a t of p r i c e . O v e r a l l , t h e r e f o r e , these f i n d i n g s i n d i c a t e a t t i t u d e t o be an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r r e l a t e d t o r e d u c t i o n s i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y c onsumption, and a p p a r e n t l y q u i t e u n r e l a t e d t o the p r i c i n g r a t i o . 5.3 P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l A t t i t u d i n a l Change The next q u e s t i o n i s what happens t o a t t i t u d e once the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e i s removed? In T a b l e 5.1 t h i s i s s u e i s a d d r e s s e d by comparing commitment and s e v e r a l o t h e r i m p o r t a n t a t t i t u d i n a l f a c t o r s a t p o i n t s b o t h d u r i n g and f o l l o w i n g the p r i c i n g i n t e r v e n t i o n . A l l the v a r i a b l e s b e i n g compared i n t h i s t a b l e were measured i n n e a r l y i d e n t i c a l f a s h i o n s by the midstream and e x i t s u r v e y s . As can be seen the m a j o r i t y of t h e s e s c a l e s have a t l e a s t r e a s o n a b l e i n t e r n a l r e l i a b i l i t i e s , and have moderate or b e t t e r a s s o c i a t i o n s ( P e a r s o n ' s r ) w i t h each o t h e r over t i m e . The s e p a r a t e items c o m p r i s i n g each s c a l e a r e c o n t a i n e d i n Appendix G. As d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , the f i r s t v a r i a b l e i n t h i s t a b l e , a t t i t u d i n a l commitment, i s h e l d t o r e p r e s e n t the c o n a t i v e or b e h a v i o u r a l d i s p o s i t i o n a l a s p e c t of a t t i t u d e . 1 43 TABLE 5.1 Comparison of A t t i t u d i n a l S c a l e s A t t i t u d i n a l S c a l e M idstream mean sd a l p h a mean E x i t sd a l p h a r N t P 1 Commitment 15 24 2 79 .79 12. 95 3 64 .82 .35 285 10. 38 .00 Knowledge 2 . 1 4 1 58 -- 1 92 1 .55 .41 290 2. 05 .02 A s c . Respon. 4 .80 1 74 .64 4 47 1 .63 . 71 .43 269 2. 87 .00 Aware Consq. 8 .77 2 25 .74 8 79 2 .01 .72 .54 237 • 19 .42 S o c i a l Norm 1 1 .38 2 .82 .58 12 .76 2 .85 .77 .46 281 8. 13 .00 Energy C r i s . 15 .40 2 .57 .73 16 97 2 .98 .72 .45 276 9. 1 0 .00 E v a l . of TOD 1 1 .37 3 .06 .80 10 .96 3 .01 .84 .55 242 2. 26 .01 S a t i s f a c t i o n 26 .68 7 .14 .92 26 .99 8 .08 .93 .62 256 • 53 .30 1 o n e - t a i l e d The most i m p o r t a n t items c o n t a i n e d i n t h i s s c a l e a r e measures r e p r e s e n t i n g S chwartz's p e r s o n a l norm and F i s h b e i n ' s b e h a v i o u r a l i n t e n t i o n . The second v a r i a b l e c o n t a i n e d i n the t a b l e i s the o b j e c t i v e knowledge s c a l e p r o v i d e d by the household's a b i l i t y t o r e p o r t a c c u r a t e l y the on- t o o f f - p e a k h o u r s , and the on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o . In a d d i t i o n , the t a b l e c o n t a i n s s e v e r a l o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s which a r e p r e c o n d i t i o n s of a t t i t u d i n a l commitment: 1) A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y , or t h e w i l l i n g n e s s t o a s c r i b e p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o s e l f f o r the e x i s t e n c e of energy problems; 2) Awareness of Consequences, or the u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t f a i l u r e t o a c t w i l l have d e l e t e r i o u s consequences f o r s o c i e t y ; 3) the s o c i a l norm, or the e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t f r i e n d s , f a m i l y and n e i g h b o u r s wish one t o 144 behave responsibily in helping to a l l e v i a t e energy problems; 4) Belief in the Energy C r i s i s , or the b e l i e f that energy problems are real and uncontrived; and 5) evaluation of time-of-day rates, or the attitude that whether they are l i k e d or not, time-of-day rates are a good idea. In addition, a f i n a l variable contained in t h i s table represents s a t i s f a c t i o n with time-of-day p r i c i n g , or the degree to which the household feels i t has benefited from such p r i c i n g . Comparing the means on these scales across the midstream and exit survey reveals that in a number of cases scores have declined. In the exit survey respondents report being less committed to reducing peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption ( t = l 0 . 3 8 , p < . 0 0 l ) ; feeling less responsible for problems associated with peak consumption (t=2.87, p < . 0 l ) ; and being less l i k l e y to evaluate time-of-day rates favourably (t=2.26, p=.02). As well, they are less able to r e c a l l their former time-of-day rate structure accurately (t=2.05, p=.04). On the other hand, respondents report more bel i e f that the energy c r i s i s i s real ( t = 9 . l 0 , p < . 0 0 l ) , and that their friends and neighbours f e e l obliged to help solve energy problems (t=8.13, p < . 0 0 l ) . In addition, there were no differences in comparison to the midstream survey with respect to s a t i s f a c t i o n with time-of-day rate (t=.53, p=.60), and being aware of the environmental consequences of households f a i l i n g to reduce peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption (t=.!9, p=.84). 145 In g e n e r a l t h i s t a b l e i n d i c a t e s r e c i d i v i s m on a t t i t u d e s among the former t i m e - o f - d a y h o u s e h o l d s . W h i l e t h i s i s so, i t i s a l s o the case t h a t the mean s c o r e s on s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s remain q u i t e h i g h . For example, mean commitment l e v e l has d e c l i n e d from 15.24 t o 12.95, or by about f i f t e e n p e r c e n t , but out of a maximum s c o r e of twenty t h i s s t i l l r e p r e s e n t s some commitment t o reduce peak e l e c t r i c i t y use. As w e l l , c e r t a i n changes i n a t t i t u d e s a re not unexpected. For example, the l e s s e r w i l l i n g n e s s t o acc e p t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r m a t t e r s c o n c e r n i n g r e d u c t i o n s t o peak l o a d may i n p a r t be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e s p o n d e n t s ' r e c e n t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n an e x p e r i m e n t , and the a t t i t u d e t h a t i t i s now time f o r o t h e r s t o do t h e i r p a r t . Hence, t h e i s s u e i s s t i l l whether these r e d u c t i o n s i n a t t i t u d i n a l s c o r e s are g e n e r a l , or r e l a t e d t o c e r t a i n subgroups i n the sample. In o t h e r words, have some hous e h o l d s r e t a i n e d t h e i r commitment to reduce peak consumption and, i f so, i s t h i s s t i l l r e l a t e d t o a c t u a l r e d u c t i o n s i n peak usage? 5.3.1 Change i n A t t i t u d i n a l Commitment F u r t h e r e v i d e n c e of the change i n a t t i t u d i n a l commitment i s p r o v i d e d by T a b l e 5.2. Here, s c o r e s on the commitment s c a l e from b o t h the midstream and e x i t s u r v e y s have been c a t e g o r i z e d and c r o s s - c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o commitment l e v e l . On t h i s f o u r i t e m s c a l e h a v i n g a maximum p o s s i b l e s c o r e of twenty, a s c o r e of s i x t e e n or b e t t e r r e p r e s e n t s a p r o b a b l e h i g h degree of commitment, w h i l e one 146 of t e n or l e s s s u g g e s t s l i t t l e commitment, w i t h s c o r e s i n between i n d i c a t i n g moderate commitment. TABLE 5.2 C r o s s t a b u l a t i o n of Commitment S c a l e M i d s t r e a m E x p e r i m e n t a l Commitment P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Commitment T o t a l 5-10 | >10<16 >1 6 5-10 9 4 13 (69 2%) (30. 8) (4.6) >10<16 42 78 1 2 1 32 (31 . 8) (59. 1 ) (9.1 ) (46.3) >1 6 29 66 45 1 40 (20 .7) (47. 1 ) (32. 1 ) (49.1) T o t a l 80 (28 .1) 1 48 (51 . 9) 57 (20.0) 285 (100.0) C h i - s q u a r e ( c o r r e c t e d ) = 3 0 . 1 3 , d.f.=4, p.<.00l Tau B=.28, p.<.00l U s i n g t h i s c a t e g o r i z a t i o n , 49 p e r c e n t of hou s e h o l d s c o u l d . be c l a s s i f i e d as h i g h l y committed on the midstream s u r v e y , w h i l e o n l y 4.6 p e r c e n t s c o r e d t e n or l e s s . However, f o r the e x i t s u r v e y , t h o s e c l a s s i f i e d as h a v i n g l i t t l e commitment had i n c r e a s e d t o 28.1 p e r c e n t , and the h i g h l y committed had dropped t o 20 p e r c e n t , or by 83 h o u s e h o l d s . I t i s e v i d e n t from an i n s p e c t i o n of the t a b l e c e l l s t h a t t h e r e has been a g e n e r a l d e c l i n e i n commitment, e s p e c i a l l y among t h o s e households t h a t r e p o r t e d h i g h commitment s c o r e s 1 47 i n the p a s t . F u l l y 67.8 p e r c e n t of t h e s e households r e p o r t e d d e c l i n e s i n commitment on the e x i t s u r v ey s u f f i c i e n t t o a l l o w them t o be r e c a t e g o r i z e d a t lower ranks on t h i s t a b l e , and 20.7 p e r c e n t of the f o r m e r l y h i g h l y committed households can now be c l a s s i f i e d a t the lo w e s t rank. When a l l d i f f e r e n c e s i n e x p e r i m e n t a l and p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l s c o r e s a r e computed, the mean f o r the sample i s -2.27 (s.d.=3.69), w i t h 69.1 p e r c e n t of a l l h ouseholds r e p o r t i n g r e d u c t i o n s . Of the 75 households r e p o r t i n g i n c r e a s e d commitment, i n o n l y 16 c a s e s was the change s u f f i c i e n t t o a l l o w t h e i r upward r e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o Table 5.2. S e v e r a l q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g changes t o commitment remain. One of these c o n c e r n s the p o s s i b i l i t y , g i v e n the g e n e r a l d e c l i n e i n commitment, of whether commitment l e v e l i s r e l a t e d t o e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n . Perhaps peak l e n g t h and p r i c e , or the i n t e r a c t i o n of t h e s e may have been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r commitment, such t h a t when c o n d i t i o n s changed r e c i d i v i s m o c c u r r e d . 2 Or, a l t e r n a t i v e l y , perhaps e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n h e l p e d t o s u s t a i n commitment d i f f e r e n t i a l l y a c r o s s c o n d i t i o n s , and r e a c t i o n t o removal of 2 The r e s e a r c h by H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b) su g g e s t s t h a t p r i c e d i d not have such an i n f l u e n c e , but does not i n v e s t i g a t e peak l e n g t h . F u r t h e r , a second t e s t of t h i s i s s u e i s t o examine p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment by former e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n t o see i f d e c l i n e s i n commitment l e v e l which o c c u r r e d were c o n s i s t e n t a c r o s s a l l c o n d i t i o n s . I f t hey a r e n o t , t h e r e i s the s u g g e s t i o n t h a t p r i c e and peak l e n g t h had g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e i n d e t e r m i n g a t t i t u d e than p r i o r r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e d . 148 the s p e c i a l r a t e s a c c o u n t s f o r d i f f e r e n t r a t e s of r e c i d i v i s m . However, i n Ta b l e 5.3 t h e r e i s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e of e i t h e r of the s e t h i n g s . T h i s t a b l e c l a s s i f i e s by e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n commitment both f o r the midstream survey measure ( p a n e l 1 ) , and the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l measure ( p a n e l 2 ) , as w e l l as f o r the d i f f e r e n c e between them ( p a n e l 3 ) . In no c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s the o v e r a l l F - r a t i o from the two-way a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e i s s i g n i f i c a n t . For commitment on the midstream survey the i n f l u e n c e of the main e f f e c t of p r i c e r a t i o i s m a r g i n a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t (F=3.18, d.f.=2, s i g . = . 0 4 ) . However, no o t h e r main e f f e c t s or i n t e r a c t i o n s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t . In s h o r t , n e i t h e r commitment nor r e d u c t i o n s i n commitment which o c c u r r e d f o l l o w i n g the ex p e r i m e n t , a re ac c o u n t e d f o r by e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s . An a d d i t i o n a l q u e s t i o n i s answered by Ta b l e 5.3. That i s , l a t e r on when the p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak i s a s s e s s e d f o r the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer, the comparison w i l l o n l y i n c l u d e the former n i n e - h o u r group and some c o n t r o l c u s t o m e r s , s i n c e o n l y t h e s e households r e t a i n e d the s p e c i a l t i m e - o f - d a y meters when the experiment ended. T h e r e f o r e , i t c o u l d be asked whether the ni n e - h o u r group responded d i f f e r e n t l y e i t h e r t o the s p e c i a l r a t e s o r t o t h e i r r emoval. Were t h i s t o have been the c a s e , the r e s u l t s from the a n a l y s i s of t h e i r b e h a v i o u r would be unique and c o u l d not be g e n e r a l i z e d t o o t h e r former t e s t 1 49 TABLE 5.3 Comparison of A t t i t u d i n a l Commitment Scores by E x p e r i m e n t a l C o n d i t i o n Peak Length 6-Hour 9-Hour 1 2-hour V a r i a b l e Aver "aged: Midstream Commitment R 2:1 14.40 15 . 1 9 14.92 1 4.82 a (37) (36) (26) (99) t 4:1 16.61 1 5.52 15.60 1 5.77 i (31) (33) (26) (90) o 8:1 1 5.63 1 5.45 15.26 15.45 (32) (34) (30) (96) T o t a l 1 5.48 1 5.25 15.26 1 5.33 (100) (103) (82) (285) F ( 4 , 2 8 l ) =1.70, p. = .15 V a r i a b l e Averaged: Post - E x p e r i m e n t a l Commitment R 2:1 1 2.69 1 2.90 13.56 12.99 a (37) (36) (26) (99) t 4:1 12.91 12.85 12.29 12.91 i (31 ) (33) (26) (90) o 8:1 13.16 1 3.39 1 3.28 1 3.28 (32) (34) (30) (96) T o t a l 12.91 1 3.05 1 3.27 1 3.07 (100) (103) (82) (285) F(4,281 ) =0.24, p. = .91 V a r i a b l e Averaged: Commitment Change ( d i f f e r e n c e ) R 2:1 -1.71 -2.29 -1 .37 -1 .83 a (37) (36) (26) (99) t . 4:1 -3.69 -2.27 -2.61 -2.86 i (31) (33) (26) (90) o 8:1 -2.46 -2.06 -1 .98 -2.17 (32) (34) (30) (96) T o t a l -2.57 -2.21 -1 .98 -2.28 (100) (103) (82) (285) F(4,281)=1.25, p.=.20 150 h o u s e h o l d s . However, a g a i n i t i s c l e a r from T a b l e 5.3 t h a t t h i s i s not the c a s e . The n i n e - h o u r group a r e n e i t h e r more or l e s s committed, nor demonstrate changes i n commitment u n l i k e o t h e r former t e s t h o u s e h o l d s . Thus, here i s i n d i r e c t s u p p ort f o r the n o t i o n t h a t the f i n d i n g s t o be p r e s e n t e d l a t e r c o n c e r n i n g the r e l a t i o n s of a t t i t u d e t o b e h a v i o u r may be r e g a r d e d as b e i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the responses of o t h e r t e s t customers, had t h e i r consumption c o n t i n u e d t o be m o n i t o r e d once the r a t e s were removed (the p o t e n t i a l problems of such an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n have been d i s c u s s e d i n c h a p t e r 4, s e c t i o n 4.8.4). 5.4 P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l S e l f - r e p o r t s of B e h a v i o u r I f a t t i t u d e s have changed, a r e customers c o n s c i o u s of a l t e r i n g t h e i r b e h a v i o u r s as w e l l ? There a r e s e v e r a l i n d i c a t o r s t h a t they have. In .Table 5.4 r e p o r t e d l e v e l s of o f f - p e a k a p p l i a n c e usage from the midstream and e x i t s u r v e y s are d i s p l a y e d . 3 In the m a j o r i t y of c a s e s the p r o p o r t i o n of 3 The measures compared a r e not s t r i c t l y comparable. That i s , i n the midstream q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e s p o n d e n t s were asked i f , w h i l e on t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s , they had i n c r e a s e d , d e c r e a s e d or made no changes i n the amount of use d u r i n g peak h o u r s , w h i l e i n the e x i t q u e s t i o n n a i r e i t was asked how o f t e n they now used a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g the peak t i m e s . I t i s p o s s i b l e f o r a respondent t o s t a t e a change i n a p p l i a n c e usage on the midstream s u r v e y , m a i n t a i n t h a t b e h a v i o u r f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , and s t i l l use i t much of the time on-peak. However, i n t h i s t a b l e the d i f f e r e n c e s a r e so pronounced t h a t they a r e f e l t t o be i n d i c a t i v e of r e t u r n s t o o l d peak usage s c h e d u l e s by many r e s p o n d e n t s . 151 TABLE 5.4 R e p o r t e d Peak Usage of A p p l i a n c e s from Midstream and E x i t Surveys A p p l i a n c e Midstream Survey E x i t Survey R e p o r t i n g Peak Us A l l T e s t % N Reduced >age 1 9-Hour % N R e p o r t i n g US€ A l l T e st % N Off-Peak 9-Hour % N Range 57. 1 125 60. 8 48 13. 2 28 13. 3 10 Oven 64. 3 135 72. 3 55 17. 5 36 18. 1 1 3 Microwave 19. 6 9 17. 6 3 13. 9 1 1 26. 7 8 R e f r i g e r a t o r 5. 9 17 5. 1 5 6. 7 19 10. 4 10 F r e e z e r 1 1 . 4 26 13. 6 1 1 7. 2 17 10. 8 9 Dishwasher 73. 6 106 70. 0 35 47. 5 66 52. 0 26 T e l e v i s i o n s 21 7 98 18. 1 29 20. 2 87 21 . 1 31 Dehumidi f i e r 39 8 67 42. 2 27 16. 7 27 23. 7 14 W a l l A i r Cond. 66 7 54 74. 1 20 40. 0 30 43 5 10 C e n t r a l A i r Cond. 56 .0 • 14 66 7 8 35 .7 10 30 .8 4 L i g h t s 50 .7 150 47 1 51 14 .0 41 14 .7 1 5 Vacuum 41 . 1 122 43 1 44 28 .2 85 30 .7 31 I ron 57 .8 167 60 .4 61 39 .6 1 1 1 42 .6 40 C l o t h e s Washer 68 . 1 188 83 .5 66 31 .5 86 29 .2 28 C l o t h e s D r y e r 75 .7 174 76 .0 73 34 .4 78 35 .4 28 1 -- r e p o r t i n g "Much L e s s " or "Somewhat L e s s " peak usage. 2 -- r e p o r t i n g "Seldom" or "Never" on-peak usage. 1 52 households r e p o r t i n g reduced peak usage d u r i n g the experiment i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y h i g h e r than those c l a i m i n g l i t t l e or no peak usage f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . Only i n cases r e s p e c t i n g a p p l i a n c e s over which household members have r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e d i s c r e t i o n a r y c o n t r o l ( r e f r i g e r a t o r s , f r e e z e r s ) a re the p r o p o r t i o n s comparable. F u r t h e r , i t i s a g a i n e v i d e n t t h a t the responses of the n i n e - h o u r hour group do not v a r y s u b s t a n t i a l l y from o t h e r t e s t customers w i t h r e g a r d t o when they a r e r e p o r t i n g u s i n g a p p l i a n c e s . T a b l e 5.5 p r o v i d e s a d d i t i o n a l e v i d e n c e of respondents r e t u r n i n g t o t h e i r o l d a p p l i a n c e use s c h e d u l e s . Here i t i s seen t h a t a s i z e a b l e p r o p o r t i o n of respondents t o the e x i t survey r e p o r t r e t u r n i n g t o t h e i r former s c h e d u l e s f o r each of s e v e r a l h o u s e h o l d a c t i v i t i e s . O v e r a l l , f o r a l l thes e a c t i v i t i e s , 39.9 p e r c e n t of hou s e h o l d s r e p o r t g o i n g back t o t h e i r p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l s c h e d u l e s . A s c a l e summing responses t o each of the s e q u e s t i o n s , h a v i n g a p o s s i b l e range of from 8 t o 32, has a mean of 16.97 (s.d.=7.70), s u g g e s t i n g j u s t o c c a s i o n a l a p p l i a n c e usage a c c o r d i n g t o o l d t i m e - o f - u s e s c h e d u l e s . F i n a l l y , T a b l e 5.6 r e p o r t s on two q u e s t i o n s c o n t a i n e d i n the e x i t s u r v e y r e s p e c t i n g customer's b e h a v i o u r s f o l l o w i n g the ex p e r i m e n t . The f i r s t q u e s t i o n a s k s respondents t o s t a t e how they used e l e c t r i c i t y d u r i n g the f i r s t summer o f f the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s . N e a r l y 44 p e r c e n t of the former t e s t households c l a i m they now use 153 TABLE 5.5 Reported Peak Usage F o l l o w i n g Experiment P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Usage Schedule A c t i v i t y Went Back Sometime TOD O f t e n TOD Always TOD T o t a l C l o t h e s Washing 34. 1% (104) 25.3 (75) 22.0 (65) 17.6 (52) 1 00.0 (296) C l o t h e s D r y i n g 35. 1 (99) 26.6 (75) 18.8 (53) 19.5 (55) 100.0 (282) Evening Meal P r e p a r a t i o n 41 .3 (118) 26.9 (77) 14.7 (42) 17.1 (49) 1 00.0 (286) Luncheon Meal P r e p a r a t i o n 43.0 (119) 26.4 (73) 14.1 (39) 16.6 (46) 1 00. 1 (277) B r e a k f a s t P r e p a r a t i o n 41 .7 (115) 20.7 (57) 13.0 (36) 24.6 (68) 100.0 (276) P e r s o n a l Care 41.6 (117) 26.0 (73) 13.2 (37) 19.2 (54) 100.0 (281 ) Bathing/Showers 39.2 (115) 23.2 (68) 17.7 (52) 19.8 (58) 99.9 (293) H o b b i e s / R e c r e a t i o n 42.8 (118) 22.5 (62) 15.6 (43) 19.2 (53) 100.1 (276) Means 39.9 24.7 16.2 19.2 100.0 S c a l e : Mean=16.97 s.d.=7.70 N=241 Items=8 Min=8 Max=32 R e l i a b i l i t y (alpha)=.94 e l e c t r i c i t y when they want t o , w h i l e a n o t h e r 34.3 p e r c e n t say they s t i c k t o t h e i r t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e o n l y i f i t i s c o n v e n i e n t . However, t o the second q u e s t i o n a s k i n g i f t h e i r former t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e had become a h a b i t , 39.1 p e r c e n t of the r e s p o n d e n t s r e p o r t p a r t i a l agreement, and a n o t h e r 1 54 20.2 p e r c e n t agree c o m p l e t e l y . Together 59 households, or 18.9 p e r c e n t of the sample, r e p o r t d e f i n i t e l y or t e n d i n g t o agree t o both of t h e s e q u e s t i o n s . 5.4.1 E v i d e n c e of the " H i g h l y Committed" From an o v e r a l l p e r s p e c t i v e t h i s a n a l y s i s o f f e r s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t h a t p e o p l e c o n t i n u e d t h e i r e f f o r t s t o reduce peak consumption f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . However, the r e c i d i v i s m i n a t t i t u d e s and r e p o r t e d a p p l i a n c e usage i n d i c a t e d i s , n e v e r t h e l e s s , not i n i t s e l f an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a t t i t u d e s d i d not c o n t i n u e t o i n f l u e n c e peak r e d u c t i o n s i n consumption. W h i l e l e v e l of commitment f o r many households d e c l i n e d f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , t h e r e a r e s t i l l a number of households which r e p o r t b e i n g h i g h l y committed t o r e d u c i n g peak usage, and i n some ca s e s t h i s commitment has even i n c r e a s e d . Thus T a b l e 5.2 s u g g e s t s t h a t some 20 p e r c e n t of households r e p o r t b e i n g h i g h l y committed t o r e d u c i n g peak consumption once the experiment ended. S i m i l a r l y i n T a b l e 5.5 19.2 p e r c e n t of households r e p o r t always r e m a i n i n g on t h e i r former t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e s a f t e r the experiment ended, and T a b l e 5.6 shows t h a t 18.3 p e r c e n t of households c l a i m t o have permanently r e o r g a n i z e d t h e i r l i f e s t y l e s t o use energy o f f - p e a k , w h i l e 20.2 p e r c e n t now c l a i m such b e h a v i o u r t o have become a h a b i t . 155 TABLE 5.6 S e l f - R e p o r t s of P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l B e h a v i o u r s Which statement best d e s c r i b e s how your h o u s e h o l d has used e l e c t r i c i t y i n the l a s t 2 months, J u l y and August, 1980. N % We use e l e c t r i c i t y when we want t o ; we don't worry about what time of day i t i s . 1 34 43. 8 We w a i t t o use e l e c t r i c i t y u n t i l t h o s e t i m e s t h a t were " o f f - p e a k " when we were on t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s o n l y i f con-v e n i e n t . 105 34. 3 We w a i t u n t i l t hose t i m e s t h a t were o f f -peak, even i f i t i s v e r y i n c o n v e n i e n t . 1 1 3. 6 We have permenently r e o r g a n i z e d our l i f e s t y l e t o use as l i t t l e e l e c t r i c i t y as p o s s i b l e a t those t i m e s t h a t were on-peak. 56 18. 3 306 100 .0 Even when t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g ended, we r e a l l y d i d n ' t s h i f t back t o our o l d ways because s c h e d u l i n g a p p l i a n c e use the way we d i d d u r i n g the t e s t had j u s t become a h a b i t . N % D e f i n i t e l y D i s a g r e e 37 12.3 P a r t i a l l y D i s a g r e e 86 28.5 P a r t i a l l y Agree 1 18 39. 1 D e f i n i t e l y Agree 61 20.2 302 100.1 Number d e f i n i t e l y or t e n d i n g t o r e p o r t c o n t i n u e d o f f - p e a k usage i n response t o both 59 18.9 N. 156 On b a l a n c e i t i s p e r p l e x i n g t h a t so many of the former t i m e - o f - d a y households reduced t h e i r commitment and r e p o r t g o i n g back t o t h e i r o l d s c h e d u l e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e i s a h a r d c o r e of h i g h l y committed customers c o m p r i s i n g about 20 p e r c e n t of the o r i g i n a l sample whose p a t t e r n s of consumption f o l l o w i n g the experiment d e s e r v e s c l o s e a t t e n t i o n d u r i n g the upcoming a n a l y s i s of consumption (Chapter 6 ) . However, g i v e n the r e d u c t i o n s i n a t t i t u d e s and r e p o r t e d changes i n b e h a v i o u r s r e p o r t e d h e r e , i t i s w o r t h w h i l e t o f i r s t attempt t o account f o r the s e by e x p l o r i n g t h e i r r e l a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r a t t i t u d e s and the sociodemographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of h o u s e h o l d s . 5.5 F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Commitment and P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l  R e p o r t e d B e h a v i o u r s The r e l a t i o n s h i p s between r e p o r t e d b e h a v i o u r s f o l l o w i n g the experiment and s e v e r a l a t t i t u d i n a l , e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t and socio d e m o g r a p h i c f a c t o r s of households a r e l i s t e d i n Ta b l e 5.7. Here the t a b l e e n t r i e s a r e z e r o - o r d e r Pearson c o r r e l a t i o n s between th e s e f a c t o r s and two measures of p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l b e h a v i o u r s — the s c a l e of ho u s e h o l d a c t i v i t i e s r e p o r t e d l y performed d u r i n g o f f - p e a k time (Table 5.5), and the v a r i a b l e r e p o r t i n g a p p l i a n c e usage d u r i n g the two summer months f o l l o w i n g the experiment (Table 5.6). 157 Most of the a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s examined here have been d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r , p a r t i c u l a r l y the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment s c a l e and those o t h e r c o g n i t i v e f a c t o r s r e g a r d e d as b e i n g p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r i t . In a d d i t i o n , the v a r i a b l e r e p o r t i n g whether the former t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e has become " h a b i t " ( T able 5.6) i s i n c l u d e d . A f i n a l a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e i s a s c a l e c o m p r i s i n g items r e f l e c t i n g the " s u b j e c t i v e c o s t s " of on- t o o f f - p e a k peak e l e c t r i c i t y . H i g h s c o r e s on t h i s s c a l e a r e i n d i c a t i v e of f a m i l i e s who f e e l t h a t when t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s were i n e f f e c t o f f - p e a k c o s t s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y were a b a r g a i n (Appendix G). To t h i s l i s t of c o g n i t i v e f a c t o r s f e l t t o i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r s have been added e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g the hou s e h o l d ' s former on- t o o f f - p e a k r a t i o and peak l e n g t h . T h i s i s i n o r d e r t o t a k e i n t o account the e x p e r i e n t i a l f a c t o r s t h e s e may r e p r e s e n t and t h e i r p o s s i b l e impacts on b e h a v i o u r s f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t ' s c o n c l u s i o n . F i n a l l y , s e v e r a l s o c i o d e m o g r a p h i c a s p e c t s of households a r e i n c l u d e d as f a c t o r s which may i n t e r v e n e s t r u c t u r a l l y t o a f f e c t peak consumption. These i n c l u d e the number of p e o p l e i n t he h o u s e h o l d , the e d u c a t i o n l e v e l s of a d u l t s , f a m i l y income and a w e i g h t e d s c a l e of the a p p l i a n c e s t o c k . " W h i l e i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h i s i s not an e x h a u s t i v e l i s t of a l l " A summary .index of the ho u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s t o c k i s computed by w e i g h t i n g a l l a p p l i a n c e s by e x p e c t e d a n n u a l consumption l e v e l s p r o v i d e d by the e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y ( E d i s o n E l e c t r i c I n s t i t u t e , 1977; E l e c t r i c Power Re s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , 1979). 1 58 TABLE 5.7 Zero-Order A s s o c i a t i o n s f o r Reported B e h a v i o u r s V a r i a b l e A s s o c i a t i o n w i t h : Of f-Peak A c t i v i t i e s S c a l e r s i g . R e p o r t e d A p p l i a n c e Use f o r P o s t - E x p . Summer r s i g . Post-Exp. Commitment .62 .00 .65 .00 Knowledge -.06 .16 -.07 . 1 1 A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y -.01 .43 -.02 .34 Awareness of Consequences .27 .00 .25 .00 S o c i a l Norm .32 .00 .35 .00 B e l i e f i n the Energy C r i s i s . 1 9 .00 .18 .00 E v a l u a t i o n of Time-of-Day Rates .32 .00 .29 .00 S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s .25 .00 .21 .00 "TOD Schedule i s a H a b i t " .56 .00 .53 .00 Former Peak P r i c e R a t i o -.06 .21 .07 .13 Former Peak Length .18 .00 .03 .33 F a m i l y Income -.08 .12 -.20 .00 Number of P e o p l e -.03 .35 -.14 .01 Avg. A d u l t E d u c a t i o n .18 .01 .21 .00 A p p l i a n c e Index -.20 .00 -.23 .14 159 p o s s i b l e c o g n i t i v e , t r e a t m e n t and sociodemographic f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h changes i n peak consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y , t h ese v a r i a b l e s comprise a r e a s o n a b l y comprehensive group of f a c t o r s l i k e l y t o a f f e c t b e h a v i o u r , i n a d d i t i o n t o b e i n g among thos e t h i n g s of t h e o r e t i c a l i mportance. In T a b l e 5.7 s e v e r a l f a c t o r s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e p o r t s of c o n t i n u e d r e d u c t i o n s i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption f o l l o w i n g the expe r i m e n t . P o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment has the l a r g e s t r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h b o t h v a r i a b l e s of s e l f - r e p o r t s b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d , f o l l o w e d by the measure of whether the t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e had become a h a b i t . A l l the o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l i t e m s , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y , a re a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s e l f - r e p o r t s of reduced peak consumption. Knowledge of the former t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s t r u c t u r e i s not r e l a t e d t o s e l f - r e p o r t s . However, t h r e e of the f o u r sociodemographic v a r i a b l e s — the a p p l i a n c e i n d e x , t o t a l p e o p l e , and income — a r e n e g a t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o r e p o r t e d peak l o a d r e d u c t i o n s , s u g g e s t i n g these t o be f a c t o r s making c o n t i n u e d r e d u c t i o n s more d i f f i c u l t or i n c o n v e n i e n t . On the o t h e r hand, f a m i l i e s w i t h h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n l e v e l s a l s o t e n d t o r e p o r t c o n t i n u i n g t o use a p p l i a n c e s o f f - p e a k . As f o r the former e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t v a r i a b l e s , the o n l y s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i s the r e l a t i o n of peak l e n g t h w i t h the s c a l e o f household a c t i v i t i e s performed o f f - p e a k . In t h i s case i t i s somewhat s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the l o n g e r the former peak l e n g t h , the more l i k e l y i t i s f o r hou s e h o l d s t o r e p o r t 160 c o n t i n u e d use of a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k t i m e s . 5.5.1 P r e d i c t i n g S e l f - R e p o r t s of Off-Peak Use M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n was c a r r i e d out t o a s s e s s i f s e l f - r e p o r t s of peak r e d u c t i o n s c o u l d be acc o u n t e d f o r by t h i s s e t of t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s . To b e g i n w i t h , a l l a t t i t u d i n a l , sociodemographic and t r e a t m e n t measures were f o r c e d i n t o the e q u a t i o n , and then n o n s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s trimmed u n t i l o n l y a f i n a l , s t a b l e s e t of s i g n f i c i a n t (<.05) p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s remained. The r e s u l t s of t h i s a n a l y s i s a re c o n t a i n e d i n T a b l e 5.8. In t h i s t a b l e between 45 and 47 p e r c e n t of the v a r i a n c e i n the r e p o r t e d s c a l e of o f f - p e a k a c t i v i t i e s and i n a p p l i a n c e usage d u r i n g the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer i s b e i n g a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h r e e and f o u r independent f a c t o r s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . In the case of both dependent v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g s e l f - r e p o r t s , the major f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g r e d u c t i o n s i n p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption a r e a t t i t u d i n a l commitment and t h e v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l i n g t o be a h a b i t . With the e x c e p t i o n of some minor e f f e c t s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o s u b j e c t i v e c o s t s , peak l e n g t h and the a p p l i a n c e i n d e x , the r e m a i n i n g a t t i t u d i n a l , knowledge, t r e a t m e n t arid s ociodemographic f a c t o r s have no i n f l u e n c e upon s e l f - r e p o r t s once these two f a c t o r s a r e taken i n t o a c c o u n t . 161 TABLE 5.8 R e g r e s s i o n s of R e p o r t e d B e h a v i o u r s on A t t i t u d i n a l , Treatment and Demographic F a c t o r s Dependent V a r i a b l e P r e d i c t e d by: Off-Peak A c t i v i t i e s S c a l e b e t a s .e. R e p o r t e d A p p l i a n c e Use f o r P o s t - e x p . Summer bet a s.e . P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Commitment .45 • 06 .48 .06 TOD Schedule i s a " H a b i t " .27 • 06 .19 .06 S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s -- — .10 .05 Former Peak Length .13 • 05 — A p p l i a n c e Index — -- -.10 .05 R -squared 1 .45 • < 47 1 — A d j u s t e d f o r degrees of freedom 5.5.2 P r e d i c t i n g Commitment and H a b i t H a b i t and commitment appear t o be major f a c t o r s a c c o u n t i n g f o r s e l f - r e p o r t s of c o n t i n u e d use of a p p l i a n c e s and performance of h o u s e h o l d a c t i v i t i e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k t i m e s . In a d d i t i o n , s e v e r a l o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l f a c t o r s have p o s i t i v e z e r o - o r d e r a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h s e l f - r e p o r t s , which i s i n a c c o r d w i t h a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t cannot be i g n o r e d t h a t , i n s p i t e of t h e s e a s s o c i a t i o n s , most of the former t i m e - o f - d a y h ouseholds r e p o r t reduced commitment and l e s s i n c l i n a t i o n t o use a p p l i a n c e s or p e r f o r m h o u s e h o l d a c t i v i t i e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k t i m e s . W h i l e i t remains of 162 i n t e r e s t t o t r a c e the e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e upon b e h a v i o u r i n l e a d i n g t o r e d u c t i o n s f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , i t i s s t i l l u n a v o i d a b l y the case t h a t the number of households s t i l l committed has d e c l i n e d a p p r e c i a b l y , and t h i s a l o n e i s c o u n t e r t o what a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y would p r e d i c t . The r e m a i n i n g i s s u e t o be a d d r e s s e d b e f o r e g o i n g on t o examine a c t u a l consumption, i s t o determine what f a c t o r s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the major independent f a c t o r s uncovered by the a n a l y s i s t o t h i s p o i n t , commitment and the h a b i t r e p o r t . T h i s i s n e c e s s a r y both i n o r d e r t o account f o r t h e s e f a c t o r s , as w e l l as t o a s c e r t a i n whether commitment e x h i b i t s the p r e v i o u s l y h y p o t h e s i z e d r e l a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r v a r i a b l e s suggested by a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y . T a b l e 5.9 d i s p l a y s the z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n s between the two measures of commitment (midstream and e x i t ) and the r e p o r t t h a t the t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e i s a h a b i t , w i t h a l l o t h e r t h e o r e t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d . In T able 5.10 the r e s u l t s from the r e g r e s s i o n s of commitment and the h a b i t i t e m on t h e s e f a c t o r s i s p r o v i d e d . In t h i s case a l l v a r i a b l e s were f o r c e d i n t o the model, whether s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t or n o t , i n o r d e r t o f a c i l i t a t e comparisons between models. The t a b l e e n t r i e s a r e s t a n d a r d i z e d r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s from t h i s o p e r a t i o n , and i n each case the s t a n d a r d e r r o r of the e s t i m a t e has- been i n c l u d e d . Whenever the s t a n d a r d e r r o r i s l e s s t h a n o n e - h a l f t h a t of t h e e s t i m a t e , the e s t i m a t e i s 163 s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t r o u g h l y the .05 l e v e l or b e t t e r . TABLE 5.9 Zero-Order A s s o c i a t i o n s f o r Commitment S c a l e s and Report t h a t Time-of-Day Schedule i s a H a b i t V a r i a b l e Assoc i a t e d w i t h : E x p e r i m e n t a l Commitment Po s t - E x p . Commitment TOD Schedule i s " H a b i t " r P- r P- r P-Knowledge .26 .00 -.05 .19 -.12 .02 A s c r . R e s p o n s i b i l i t y .04 .25 -.07 . 1 3 -.06 .16 Aware. Consequences .27 .00 .41 .00 .27 .00 S o c i a l Norm .23 .00 .36 .00 .30 .00 B e l . i n Energy C r i s i s .29 .00 .27 .00 .19 .00 E v a l u a t i o n f o TOD .18 .00 .38 .00 .37 .00 S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s .30 .00 .22 .00 .22 .00 Former P r i c e R a t i o .09 .07 .04 .27 .03 .32 Former Peak Length -.04 .25 .04 .25 .09 .06 F a m i l y Income -.13 .02 -.16 .00 -.14 .00 Number of People -.13 .02 -.17 .00 -.07 . 1 1 Avg. A d u l t E d u c a t i o n .50 .00 .32 .00 .13 .01 A p p l i a n c e Index .06 .17 -.18 .00 -.20 .00 Examining the z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n s on the commitment s c a l e f i r s t ( T a b l e 5.9), i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t many of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s among o t h e r c o g n i t i v e f a c t o r s b e l i e v e d 1 64 t o be a n t e c e d e n t s of commitment and a t t i t u d i n a l commitment do indeed e x i s t . The n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n s a r e A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y and, i n - the case of p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment, knowledge. However, a l l o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l f a c t o r s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o commitment a t both p e r i o d s i t was measured. In a d d i t i o n , e d u c a t i o n l e v e l i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h commitment, e s p e c i a l l y w i t h the measure from the midstream s u r v e y . And, as was the case w i t h the s e l f - r e p o r t measures, s e v e r a l of the l o n g - t e r m , s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of h o u s e h o l d s , such as income, the number of r e s i d e n t s , and .the s i z e of the a p p l i a n c e s t o c k , a l l a r e r e l a t e d t o commitment and appear t o i n h i b i t the household's i n t e n t i o n t o reduce peak consumption. F i n a l l y , f o r the h a b i t v a r i a b l e , i t i s a l s o the case t h a t a t t i t u d i n a l items a r e more l i k e l y t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o i t than e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t o r sociodemographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Combining a l l t h e s e f a c t o r s t o p r e d i c t commitment and the h a b i t r e p o r t h e l p s t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e the e f f e c t s of th e s e v a r i a b l e s . The r e s u l t s from these r e g r e s s i o n s a r e i n Tab l e 5.10. For the midstream survey measure of commitment t h r e e f a c t o r s , the s o c i a l norm, knowledge and e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l , a l l have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r the major p r o p o r t i o n of e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e . However, of the s e o n l y the s o c i a l norm i s a l s o a s i g n i f i c a n t p r e d i c t o r of p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment. I t may be f e l t t h a t both commitment measures s h o u l d be e x p l a i n e d by a s i m i l a r s e t of f a c t o r s . However, c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the p r e v i o u s comparison 165 TABLE 5.10 F a c t o r s P r e d i c t i n g Commitment and H a b i t S c a l e s Dependent V a r i a b l e P r e d i c t e d by: Exper i m e n t a l Commitment b e t a s.e P o s t - E x p . Commitment bet a s.e. TOD Schedule i s " H a b i t " b e t a s.e. A t t i t u d e s A s c r . R e s p o n s i b i l i t y .02 .06 -.08 .05 • 09 .06 Aware. Consequences -.05 .07 .18 .06 • 03 .07 B e l . i n Energy C r i s i s .01 .06 .10 .06 • 1 2 .06 E v a l u a t i o n of TOD .03 .06 .19 .06 • 31 .07 S o c i a l Norm .12 .06 .19 .06 • 16 .06 Knowledqe .22 .06 .00 .06 9 10 .06 Soc iodemoqraphics Avg. A d u l t E d u c a t i o n .41 .08 .08 .06 - .09 .07 F a m i l y Income -.10 .06 -.03 .06 - .09 .06 Number of P e o p l e -.05 .06 -.10 .05 - .02 .06 A p p l i a n c e Index .09 .06 -.11 .05 - . 1 1 .05 Treatment Former P r i c e R a t i o -.08 .06 .02 .05 .09 .06 Former Peak Length .05 .06 .03 .06 .02 .06 R - s quared 1 S i g . v a r i b l e s a t <.05 29 3 • 25 5 .20 4 1 — A d j u s t e d f o r degrees of freedom between t h e s e two measures s u g g e s t s t h i s s h o u l d not be the c a s e . That i s , the z e r o - o r d e r a s s o c i a t i o n between the commitment s c o r e s i s o n l y .34, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t j u s t 11 p e r c e n t of the v a r i a n c e i n p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment can 1 66 be accounted f o r by p r i o r commitment. As has been shown, commitment i n most ca s e s has d e c l i n e d . I t would perhaps be more a p p r o p r i a t e t o r e g a r d the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment s c a l e as a measure of the i n c l i n a t i o n t o change back, r a t h e r than one of c o n t i n u e d commitment t o reduce peak consumption, and the d i f f e r e n c e s i n f a c t o r s a c c o u n t i n g f o r them i s t h e r e f o r e not s u r p r i s i n g . 5 F i n a l l y , i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t the model of s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s a c c o u n t i n g f o r the h a b i t v a r i a b l e i s q u i t e c l o s e t o t h a t f o r p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment. These two measures have a s i z e a b l e a s s o c i a t i o n (r=.62, p < . 0 0 l ) . T h i s i n t r o d u c e s the q u e s t i o n of t h e c a u s a l r e l a t i o n between them. Has the t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e become a h a b i t because the household i s committed t o r e d u c i n g peak consumption on the b a s i s of s o c i a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l awareness? Or i s i t because s c h e d u l i n g a p p l i a n c e usage o f f - p e a k always was, and remains, c o n v e n i e n t t h a t p e o p l e c l a i m they are committed t o i t ? In o t h e r words i s p r i o r e x p e r i e n c e the b a s i s f o r commitment more so than o t h e r 5 F u r t h e r c l a r i f i c a t i o n of t h i s p o i n t might be p r o v i d e d by computing a "change back" s c o r e on commitment by r e g r e s s i n g p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment on p r i o r commitment and a n a l y s i n g the r e s i d u a l s from t h i s o p e r a t i o n . Such a p r o c e d u r e would be v a l u a b l e were i t not f o r the f a c t t h a t p r i o r commitment i s not a s t r o n g p r e d i c t o r of p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment (beta=.34). Thus the r e s i d u a l which i s p r o v i d e d i s h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l commitment, and no f u r t h e r e l u c i d a t i o n of the f a c t o r s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r changes i n commitment i s p r o v i d e d from i t s a n a l y s i s beyond t h a t which i s a l r e a d y p r o v i d e d by the a n a l y s i s of post-commitment. 1 67 a t t i t u d e s ? In the more e l a b o r a t e , s t r u c t u r a l e q u a t i o n models t o be examined i n the next c h a p t e r , the r e l a t i o n s between th e s e f a c t o r s w i l l be f u r t h e r a s s e s s e d . 168 5.6 Chapter Summary The g o a l of t h i s c h a p t e r has been t o a s s e s s changes i n a t t i t u d e s , e s p e c i a l l y commitment, f o l l o w i n g the c o n c l u s i o n of the e x p e r i m e n t . The p o i n t has been t o deter m i n e i f , once the s p e c i a l r a t e s were removed, a t t i t u d i n a l commitment d e c l i n e d , and i f t h i s i s s u p p o r t e d by s e l f - r e p o r t s of changes i n b e h a v i o u r s among the former t i m e - o f - d a y h o u s e h o l d s . In t h i s way the c h a p t e r s t a n d s as a p r e l i m i n a r y assessment of change, p r i o r t o r e l a t i n g a t t i t u d e s and the s t r u c t u r a l or l i f e s t y l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of homes and f a m i l i e s t o a c t u a l consumption b e f o r e and f o l l o w i n g removal of the s p e c i a l t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e . The c h a p t e r began by summarizing the r e s e a r c h by H e b e r l e i n and W a r r i n e r (1983b) which compares the e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e and the p r i c i n g t r e a t m e n t on peak r e d u c t i o n s d u r i n g the t h i r d summer under the s p e c i a l r a t e s . T h i s a n a l y s i s s u g g e s t s t h a t , a t t h i s p o i n t i n the e x p e r i m e n t , the e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d i n a l commitment i n l e a d i n g t o b e h a v i o u r a l change were g r e a t e r than - t h a t of p r i c e , as w e l l as b e i n g l a r g e l y u n r e l a t e d t o the p r i c i n g t r e a t m e n t . T h i s r e s e a r c h s t a n d s as a p o i n t of comparison w i t h r e s p e c t t o b e h a v i o u r s which o c c u r r e d once the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s ended. F o l l o w i n g t h i s , t h e c h a p t e r a s s e s s e d changes i n a t t i t u d e s w h i l e a t t e m p t i n g t o account f o r d i f f e r e n c e s and f o r s e l f - r e p o r t s of b e h a v i o u r a l change d u r i n g the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer. In g e n e r a l i t can be c o n c l u d e d : 169 1. There Has Been a Change i n A t t i t u d e The d e c l i n e i n commitment f o l l o w i n g the experiemnt compared t o t h a t measured by the midstream survey has been a p p r e c i a b l e . The m a j o r i t y of r e s p o n d e n t s r e p o r t some d e c l i n e i n commitment; i n a number of c a s e s the l e v e l of change has been l a r g e . N e i t h e r these, changes nor s c o r e s on commitment d u r i n g and f o l l o w i n g the experiment can be a c c o u n t e d f o r by the e x p e r i m e n t a l t r e a t m e n t f a c t o r s , peak l e n g t h and the p r i c e r a t i o . As w e l l , t h e r e have been co n c o m i t a n t d e c l i n e s i n a number of o t h e r a t t i t u d e s r e l a t e d t o commitment. There i s no e v i d e n c e t h a t commitment l e v e l s or changes have a f f e c t e d the n i n e - h o u r group any d i f f e r e n t l y from o t h e r t e s t c u s t o m e r s . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption p a t t e r n s by t h i s group w i l l be s i m i l a r t o those of o t h e r former t e s t h o u s e h o l d s . 2. There are S e l f - R e p o r t s of R e t u r n i n g t o O l d A p p l i a n c e Schedules S e l f - r e p o r t s of a p p l i a n c e use and s c h e d u l i n g of h o u s e h o l d a c t i v i t i e s f o l l o w i n g the experiment s u p p o r t r e d u c t i o n s i n commitment. Households r e p o r t r e t u r n i n g t o t h e i r o l d ways, and i n the m a j o r i t y of c a s e s show l i t t l e f u r t h e r concern about when e l e c t r i c i t y i s consumed. 170 3. There i s a Hardcore of H i g h l y Committed For both p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l a t t i t u d i n a l commitment and s e l f - r e p o r t s of a p p l i a n c e usage, the a n a l y s i s i d e n t i f i e d a number of households r e p o r t i n g the c o n t i n u e d i n t e n t i o n of r e d u c i n g peak consumption. T h i s group c o m p r i s e s about twenty p e r c e n t of the o r i g i n a l sample. 4. Support f o r A t t i t u d i n a l Theory A l t h o u g h commitment l e v e l s have d e c l i n e d , a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s , e s p e c i a l l y commitment, remain a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s e l f - r e p o r t s of peak r e d u c t i o n s . Commitment i s a l s o a s s o c i a t e d w i t h and, i n p a r t , p r e d i c t e d by o t h e r c o g n i t i v e f a c t o r s h y p o t h e s i z e d t o be p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r a t t i t u d e . 5. H a b i t A l s o May Determine Peak R e d u c t i o n s A second i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r r e l a t i n g t o s e l f - r e p o r t s of o f f - p e a k a p p l i a n c e use f o l l o w i n g the experiment i s the degree t o which the t i m e - o f - d a y s c h e d u l e i s r e p o r t e d t o have become a h a b i t . Hence t h i s v a r i a b l e may a l s o h e l p t o account f o r a c t u a l p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption. However, not w i t h s t a n d i n g the a s s o c i a t i o n s a l r e a d y demonstrated between p r i o r a t t i t u d e s and commitment, t h i s s u g g ests as w e l l t h a t p r i o r e x p e r i e n c e and the convenience of o l d ways may f u r t h e r c o n t r i b u t e t o the e x p l a n a t i o n f o r commitment. 171 Chapter 6 ATTITUDE, PRICE AND POST-EXPERIMENTAL CONSUMPTION 6.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n As s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h i s c h a p t e r examines e l e c t r i c i t y consumption f o r the summer months d u r i n g and, i n p a r t i c u l a r , f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . The i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d e and p r i c e i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r b e h a v i o u r s w i l l be d e s c r i b e d , and the models d e r i v e d from the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e approaches i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y w h i c h were p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 3 w i l l be e v a l u a t e d . S i n c e t h e r e a r e a l r e a d y a number of i n d i c a t i o n s — f o r example, r e c i d i v i s m i n a t t i t u d e s and r e p o r t s of r e t u r n s t o p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l a p p l i a n c e s c h e d u l e s — t h a t t i m e - o f - d a y h o useholds d i d not m a i n t a i n t h e i r p r e v i o u s c o n s e r v i n g b e h a v i o u r s d u r i n g peak ti m e s once the experiment ended, s e v e r a l a d d i t i o n a l a n a l y s e s w i l l be u n d e r t a k e n t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h i s p r o c e s s . A g a i n i t can be r e c a l l e d t h a t from the p e r s p e c t i v e of a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y i t i s not h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t r e c i d i v i s m i n o f f - p e a k consumption l e v e l s does not o c c u r , o n l y t h a t where a t t i t u d i n a l commitment e x i s t s w i l l i t be r e l a t e d t o c o n t i n u e d peak r e d u c t i o n s . The a n a l y s i s of the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r i n d i c a t e s t h a t some twenty p e r c e n t of the o r i g i n a l sample were s t i l l h i g h l y committed t o o p e r a t i n g a p p l i a n c e s d u r i n g o f f - p e a k t i m e s f o l l o w i n g the 1 72 ex p e r i m e n t . T h e r e f o r e , i t s h o u l d be demonstrated a t l e a s t t h a t the a t t i t u d i n a l measure p r o v i d e d by t h e s e households are r e l a t e d t o a c t u a l b e h a v i o u r s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , even f i n d i n g s of t h i s s o r t must be re g a r d e d as q u i t e weak e v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t of a t t i t u d i n a l t h e o r y . That i s , why s h o u l d a t t i t u d e , i f independent of the p r i c i n g s t i m u l u s , not be m a i n t a i n e d once the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e i s removed? Except f o r a m i n o r i t y of c a s e s , the e a r l i e r a n a l y s i s s u g g e s t s l i t t l e of t h i s p e r s i s t e n c e . Hence some a d d i t i o n a l a n a l y s e s w i l l be n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o c l a r i f y t h i s s i t u a t i o n . In p a r t i c u l a r , i t w i l l be n e c e s s a r y t o r e c o n s i d e r some of the e a r l i e r f i n d i n g s a s s o c i a t i n g a t t i t u d e w i t h b e h a v i o u r a l change, e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o the apparent absence of p r i c i n g e f f e c t s i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r a t t i t u d e . F i n a l l y , i t w i l l be b e n e f i c i a l t o combine a l l the a t t i t u d i n a l , t r e a t m e n t and sociodemographic. f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d here as i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e d t o peak r e d u c t i o n s , both d u r i n g .and f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , i n a s i n g l e model. W h i l e complex, and not always as i n f o r m a t i v e as more p a r s i m o n i o u s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of b e h a v i o u r a l p r o c e s s e s , such a model reminds us t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p among the v a r i o u s f a c t o r s b e l i e v e d t o be i m p o r t a n t t o b e h a v i o u r i s u s u a l l y f a r from s i m p l e . Thus, t h i s model denotes and summarizes many of the p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s e x i s t i n g among t h e s e f a c t o r s and b e h a v i o u r s and, as w e l l , s e r v e s t o 1 73 p r o v i d e some c u m u l a t i v e n e s s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r e t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n s b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d . 6.2 Comparing Peak Consumption An i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n s concerns how b e i n g i n the experiment a f f e c t e d consumption. Changes i n p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak over time i s p r o v i d e d i n Table 6.1. Consumption f o r the b a s e l i n e summer and p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer ( f o r the nine-hour group) i s b e i n g compared w i t h consumption d u r i n g the t h r e e summers under the s p e c i a l r a t e s . For each p e r i o d comparisons w i t h the c o n t r o l group on each l e n g t h of peak a r e b e i n g made. Comparing consumption f o r each of the e x p e r i m e n t a l c e l l s w i t h the b a s e l i n e p e r i o d and c o n t r o l c u s t o mers, i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t r e d u c t i o n s o c c u r r e d under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . Once the r a t e s took e f f e c t consumption was reduced f o r a l l p r i c i n g t r e a t m e n t s and, by and l a r g e , t h e s e were m a i n t a i n e d t h r o u g h o u t the e x p e r i m e n t . In a d d i t i o n , the one-way a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e comparing the consumption of the c o n t r o l group ( i . e . , the 1:1 p r i c i n g r a t i o ) and the o t h e r p r i c i n g r a t i o s i s s i g n i f i c a n t f o r a l l p e r i o d s w h i l e the r a t e s a p p l i e d . However, once the experiment ended, customers went back t o t h e i r o l d b e h a v i o u r s . For the f i r s t summer o f f the r a t e s , the d i f f e r e n c e between c o n t r o l s and the former t e s t customers i s no l o n g e r s i g n i f i c a n t . In a d d i t i o n , 174 Table 6.1 Proportion of Peak Usage by Group Price Baseline Experimental Periods Post-Exp. Month Period F i r s t Summer Second Summer Third Summer Period Ratio 6 Hr. 9 Hr. 12 Hr. 6 Hr. 9 Hr. 12 Hr.|6 Hr. 9 Hr. 12 Hr. | 6 Hr. 9 Hr. 12 Hr. 9 Hr. l i l . 1 9 4 a ..292 .401 . 194 .290 398 . 196 . 2 9 5 .402 .188 .284 .392 .280 ( . 0 3 ) b (.04) (.04) ( . 0 3 ) (.04) (.04) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) ( • 0 5 ) ( . 0 3 ) (.04) (.04) ( .04) 2.1 . 196 .299 .411 1 0.173 .276 389 . 1701 .276 .385 .168 .274 . 381 • 293 J„ ( . 0 3 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 3 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 3 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) (.04) \ 4 .1 . 193 .298 .40? . 1 6 8 1 . 2 5 7 1 3 6 7 1 . 1 7 5 1 .2511 . 3 6 6 1 • 173 .259 .369 .289 ( . 0 3 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) (.04) (.07) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) 8.1 .197 .298 • 398 . 1 5 2 1 • 2 5 7 1 3 5 9 1 • 1 5 9 1 • 2 5 9 1 • 3 5 3 1 . 1 6 3 1 .257 • 3 5 1 1 .298 (.04) ( . 0 3 ) (.04) (.04) ( . 0 6 ) (.07) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 6 ) (.04) F .15 • 35 .86 14.67 6.39 6.45 9 .31 6.73 8.27 4.98 3-36 6 .01 1.57 P- • 93 • 79 .46 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 ' . 0 2 . 0 0 . 2 0 111 .199 .298 .411 .186 .280 389 • 188 .284 • 393 .185 .281 .394 .290 ( . 0 3 ) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 3 ) (.04) (.04) ( . 0 3 ) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) A 2.1 . 2 0 3 .302 .418 . 1 6 5 1 .264 396 . 1 6 8 1 .269 • 379 . 170 .274 .378 • 301 (.04) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 3 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) S t 4 .1 . 194 .296 .410 • 1 5 9 1 • 253 3 6 0 1 - 2 1 6 6 1 .2411 • 3 5 4 1 . 169 .256 .366 .281 ( . 0 3 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) (.04) ( . 0 7 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) 8.1 .202 • 311 .407 .14?1 .253 3 5 0 H 1 6 3 1 . 2 5 4 1 •.3481 .163 . 2 5 6 • 3 5 9 1 .294 (.04) (.04) ( . 0 5 ) (.04) (.07) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 6 ) ( . 0 5 ) F .61 .90, • 39 11 .90 3-42 . 8.64 5-83 6 .39 8.98 3.48 3.05 5 .05 1.24 P- . 6 0 .44 • 76 . 0 0 . 0 2 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 .02 • 03 . 0 0 • 30 a - proportion on-peak b - standard deviation c - s i g n i f i c a n t l y different at .05 le v e l or better from row indicated. 175 consumption l e v e l s f o r p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak a r e once a g a i n v e r y c l o s e t o l e v e l s which e x i s t e d p r i o r t o the r a t e s b e i n g i n e f f e c t , the b a s e l i n e y e a r . W h i l e the d a t a a r e o n l y a v a i l a b l e t o make comparisons w i t h the former n i n e - h o u r customers, t h e r e i s not a l o t of reason t o doubt t h a t t h e s e b e h a v i o u r s a r e any d i f f e r e n t from o t h e r former t e s t h o u s e h o l d s , g i v e n the a n a l y s i s of the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r . Thus, f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , the same p a t t e r n s of r e c i d i v i s m which o c c u r r e d w i t h a t t i t u d e s , and were su g g e s t e d by s e l f - r e p o r t e d b e h a v i o u r s , o c c u r r e d w i t h a c t u a l consumption as w e l l and, by and l a r g e , the sample went back t o i t s p r e v i o u s l e v e l s of peak usage. 6.3 C o g n i t i v e and B e h a v i o u r i s t Models of Peak-Load  R e d u c t i o n s Some p r e l i m i n a r y assessment of t h e e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e s , t r e a t m e n t f a c t o r s , and the sociodemographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f a m i l i e s on a c t u a l r e d u c t i o n s i n peak consumption i s p r o v i d e d i n T a b l e 6.2. Here, the t a b l e e n t r i e s a r e z e r o - o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n s between each of the s e v a r i a b l e s , and t h e r e s i d u a l i z e d l o g a r i t h m i c changes i n p r o p o r t i o n of on- t o o f f - p e a k consumption f o r the t h r e e summers of the s p e c i a l r a t e s and the f i r s t summer o f f the r a t e s . In t h i s t a b l e a l l v a r i a b l e s a re as d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of two a d d i t i o n a l a t t i t u d i n a l measure p r o v i d e d t o r e f l e c t views towards b e i n g i n the expe r i m e n t . F i r s t , a "Hawthorne" s c a l e c o m p r i s e s r e s p o n s e s t o items 1 76 r e p o r t i n g b e h a v i o u r a l change because the household was " i n an e x p e r i m e n t " or " s h o u l d h e l p the u t i l i t y " . T h i s s c a l e i s i n t e n d e d t o ta k e i n t o account the w e l l known t h r e a t t o i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y brought on by t e s t i n g , or the knowledge t h a t one i s b e i n g e v a l u a t e d (Campbell and S t a n l e y , 1966). T h i s f o u r i t e m s c a l e has a mean of 12.23 (s.d=2.69), a range of from 4 t o 16, and a c o e f f i c i e n t of r e l i a b i l i t y ( a l p h a ) of .78. Second, a ' p r i c e i s " d i f f e r e n t " ' s c a l e c o m p r i s e s items r e p o r t i n g the degree t o which any on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l i s m o t i v a t i n g , r a t h e r than the a b s o l u t e amount of t h i s d i f f e r e n c e . T h i s s c a l e i s i n t e n d e d t o add r e s s the d i f f e r e n t approaches of much economic and s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h i n the energy f i e l d (see Chapter 2) w i t h r e s p e c t t o how p r i c e i s p e r c e i v e d . The economic n o t i o n of e l a s t i c i t y of demand i s pr e m i s e d upon the assumption t h a t i n c r e m e n t a l changes i n p r i c e a r e f o l l o w e d by i n c r e m e n t a l r e d u c t i o n s i n demand. S o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i s t s , on the o t h e r hand, t e n d t o r e g a r d the mere f a c t t h a t the economic s t i m u l u s i s r e w a r d i n g t o be m o t i v a t i n g , w i t h o u t g r e a t c o n c e r n f o r the s i z e of t h i s d i f f e r e n c e . T h i s s c a l e , t h e r e f o r e , i s i n c o n t r a s t t o the h y p o t h e s i z e d e f f e c t s s u g g e s t e d by economic t h e o r y r e g a r d i n g the p r i c e r a t i o , f o r which i t i s assumed t h a t as the r a t i o of on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , responses become more pronounced. I t has a mean of 15.20 ( s . d 2.97), a range of between 5 and 20, and i n t e r n a l r e l i a b i l i t y ( a l p h a ) of .72. The items c o m p r i s i n g 177 each of t h e s e two new s c a l e s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n Apendix G. In T a b l e 6.2 a n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t i n d i c a t e s a f a c t o r which i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e d u c t i o n s i n peak consumption. Hence, f o r a l l t h r e e summers under t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g a t t i t u d i n a l commitment i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h such r e d u c t i o n s . For the second and t h i r d summers the r e l a t i o n s h i p of commitment w i t h peak r e d u c t i o n s i s l a r g e r than t h a t of any o t h e r f a c t o r . However, f o r the f i r s t summer, p r i c e and knowledge each have the l a r g e s t a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h b e h a v i o u r a l change. Both of t h e s e f a c t o r s c o n t i n u e t h e i r a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h consumption f o r the second and t h i r d t e s t summers, a l t h o u g h the a s s o c i a t i o n of p r i c e i s reduced. S e v e r a l o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s suggested as b e i n g t h e o r e t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t 1 have o n l y o c c a s i o n a l or no a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h r e d u c t i o n s i n peak consumption. However, t h i s i s e x p e c t e d . These v a r i a b l e s a r e r e g a r d e d as b e i n g p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r a t t i t u d i n a l commitment, and t h e i r a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h b e h a v i o u r mediated by i t . However, the t h r e e r e m a i n i n g a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s — s u b j e c t i v e c o s t s , and the "Hawthorne" and " P r i c e D i f f e r s " s c a l e s — a r e a l l a s s o c i a t e d w i t h peak r e d u c t i o n s f o r each of the t h r e e t e s t summers. Both the s u b j e c t i v e c o s t s and ' p r i c e i s 1 A s c r i p t i o n of R e s p o n s i b i l i t y , Awareness of Consequences, the s o c i a l norm, B e l i e f i n the Energy C r i s i s , e v a l u a t i o n of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . 178 TABLE 6.2 C o r r e l a t i o n s Among B e h a v i o u r a l Change and A t t i t u d i n a l and Sociodemographic V a r i b l e s A s s o c i a t e d w i t h : Change i n On- t o Off-Peak Consumption Summer 1 | Summer2 | Summer3 | Post - E x p . A t t i t u d e s Commitment -.21 3 - . 3 3 3 - . 3 2 3 -.01 A s c r . R e s p o n s i b i l i t y -. 14 2 -.09 1 -.03 .03 Aware. Consequences -.05 -.10 -.1 1 1 -.01 S o c i a l Norm -.02 -.06 -.01 -.03 B e l . i n Energy C r i s i s -.02 -.04 -.04 -.02 E v a l u a t i o n of TOD -.03 -.05 -.08 -.22 1 S a t i s f a c t i o n w/ TOD -.08 -.14 2 -. 18 3 -.18 1 S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s "Hawthorne" S c a l e - . 2 2 3 -.25 3 - . 2 5 3 -.13 -.13 1 -.22 3 - . 2 1 3 .02 P r i c e i s " D i f f e r e n t " -. 15 2 -.22 3 -.24 3 .04 Knowledge -.27 3 -.26 3 -.27 3 . 1 1 Treatment P r i c e R a t i o -.27 3 -.14 2 - . 1 5 2 .02 Peak Length -.04 -.04 -.03 — Soci©demographies F a m i l y Income -.09 -.07 -.04 -.03 Number of People .04 .07 .10 .16 1 Avg. A d u l t E d u c a t i o n -.08 -. 14 2 - . 1 3 2 .05 A p p l i a n c e Index -.11 1 - . 1 5 2 -. 12 2 .04 Rep. B e h a v i o u r s Off-Peak A c t i v i t i e s .05 .03 -.02 -.12 TOD " H a b i t " .14 2 .09 .04 -.14 Post-Summer Rep. Use .08 -.03 -.06 -.16' 1 <.05 2 <.01 3 <.001 179 " d i f f e r e n t " ' s c a l e s have t o do w i t h the way the p r i c i n g r a t i o i s p e r c e i v e d , w h i l e the Hawthorne s c a l e r e f l e c t s e v a l u a t i o n a p p r e h e n s i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b e i n g i n an e x p e r i m e n t . T h e i r s i g n i f i c a n t a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h b e h a v i o u r s u g g e s t , t h e r e f o r e , the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t the h o u s e h o l d e r s ' p e r c e p t i o n s of the e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n s were not always i n l i n e w i t h the p r o j e c t d e v e l o p e r s ' i n t e n t i o n s . As f o r change d u r i n g t h e p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer, i t i s c l e a r t h a t few of the v a r i a b l e s l i s t e d here a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t . Of c o u r s e , b e h a v i o u r a t t h i s time d i f f e r s so s l i g h t l y from t h a t of the b a s e l i n e summer, i t would be s u r p r i s i n g i f many f a c t o r s were s i g n i f i c a n t i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r the minor changes which d i d o c c u r . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the t a b l e s u g g e s t s t h a t s e l f - r e p o r t s of a p p l i a n c e usage d u r i n g the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer do, t o a degree, f o r e t e l l what a c t u a l l y o c c u r r e d , w h i l e f a m i l i e s who approved of and were s a t i s f i e d w i t h t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s were a l s o somewhat more l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e t o consume l e s s energy d u r i n g t h e i r former peak t i m e s . The commitment s c a l e , now much reduced, i s no l o n g e r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h changes i n consumption s i m p l y because such change was a r e l a t i v e l y i s o l a t e d phenomenon. In F i g u r e 6 .A the e s t i m a t i o n s f o r the s i m p l e p a t h models p r e s e n t e d and d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 3 as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the b e h a v i o u r i s t and c o g n i t i v e approaches i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y a r e p r o v i d e d . By and l a r g e , the 180 s u p e r i o r approach i n t h i s i n s t a n c e of the b e h a v i o u r a l model has a l r e a d y been demonstrated by v i r t u e of the r e c i d i v i s m which o c c u r r e d i n a t t i t u d e s and b e h a v i o u r s once the ti m e - o f - d a y r a t e s ended. However, some q u e s t i o n s remain. For example, why i n Models 1 and 2 i s the e f f e c t of p r i c e i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r changes i n consumption f o r t h e t h i r d summer reduced so much from t h a t of the f i r s t t e s t summer? C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the p r o p o r t i o n s of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak d u r i n g t h e s e p e r i o d s ( T a b l e 6.1) does not suggest t h a t r e t u r n s t o p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l consumption l e v e l s were o c c u r r i n g . T h e r e f o r e , i f p r i c e i s the p r i n c i p a l f a c t o r a c c o u n t i n g f o r b e h a v i o u r a l change, why a r e i t s e f f e c t s d i m i n i s h i n g over time? Second, t h e r e i s the q u e s t i o n of the s i z e of these e f f e c t s . Removal of the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e a p p a r e n t l y prompted an immediate r e t u r n t o p r e - e x p e r i m e n t a l b e h a v i o u r s , y e t the e s t i m a t e of the i n f l u e n c e of p r i c e a t no time a c c o u n t s f o r g r e a t e r than seven p e r c e n t of the v a r i a n c e i n change. In c o n s i d e r a t i o n of what o c c u r r e d f o l l o w i n g c o m p l e t i o n of the e x p e r i m e n t , t h e r e i s the e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t the e f f e c t s of p r i c e s h o u l d be l a r g e r . F i n a l l y , i n t h e s e models i t i s s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the i n f l u e n c e of p r i c e upon a t t i t u d i n a l commitment i s n o n s i g n i f i c a n t . Commitment i s , of c o u r s e , a t t r i b u t a b l e i n p a r t t o o t h e r f a c t o r s — p r i n c i p a l l y p r i o r a t t i t u d e s and the sociodemographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of hou s e h o l d s — which 181 FIGURE 6.A E s t i m a t i o n of B e h a v i o u r a l and C o g n i t i v e Models Model 1 — B e h a v i o u r a l C 0 G N F i r s t Summer T h i r d Summer P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t Model 2 2JL C o n a t i v e P .94 .99 S / 3 -.01 .35 : A F i r s t Summer .99 T h i r d Summer 93 P o s t - E x p e r iment T Model 2 ZZ. S e l f - P e r c e p t i o n I V P E \ -.27 3 /.96 \ S f -.21 1 £.05 2 <.01 3 £.001 f.99 F i r s t Summer T h i r d Summer Po s t - E x p e r i m e n t 182 i n f l u e n c e the a b i l i t y t o use e l e c t r i c i t y a t c e r t a i n t i m e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the i n a b i l i t y of a t t i t u d e t o i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r once the p r i c i n g i n c e n t i v e was removed c a s t s some doubt on p r e v i o u s s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t p r i c e and a t t i t u d e a r e independent. T h e r e f o r e , s i n c e the removal of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s a p p a r e n t l y prompted immediate r e t u r n t o former peak consumption l e v e l s , the b e h a v i o u r i s t model d e p i c t e d i n F i g u r e 6.A appears t o p r o v i d e i n s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n of how p r i c e , e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h a t t i t u d e , i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the changes i n b e h a v i o u r which o c c u r r e d w h i l e the r a t e s were i n e f f e c t . 6.4 P r i c e - r e l a t e d E f f e c t s on R e d u c t i o n s i n Peak E l e c t r i c i t y  Use: A R e c o n s i d e r a t i o n There a r e a t l e a s t two r e a s o n s why i n t h i s experiment the e f f e c t s of the on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c i n g r a t i o appears t o e x h i b i t such l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e upon r e d u c t i o n s i n peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption: 1) p r i c e - r e l a t e d i n f l u e n c e s a r e b e i n g mediated by o t h e r i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g a t t i t u d e s , and 2) the assumption t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the on-to o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o a r e r e l a t e d i n c r e m e n t a l l y t o r e d u c t i o n s i n consumption i s f a l s e . In the f i r s t c a s e , some e v i d e n c e of p r i c e - r e l a t e d e f f e c t s on consumption b e i n g r e p l a c e d over time by i n t e r v e n i n g a t t i t u d e s i s suggested by F i g u r e 6.B. The assumption u n d e r l y i n g t h i s model i s t h a t p r i c e i s i n i t i a l l y m o t i v a t i o n a l , but t h a t i n time t h i s f o c u s becomes r e p l a c e d 183 by a t t i t u d e s . T h i s model t e s t s t h i s n o t i o n by i n c l u d i n g a t t i t u d i n a l c o n a t i o n as t h i s i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r . FIGURE 6.B E f f e c t s of P r i c e and Commitment on B e h a v i o u r a l Change D u r i n g 3 Years Under Time-of-Day Rates and the P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Summer 1 <.05 2 <.01 3 <.001 184 For s e v e r a l reasons t h i s model i s more i l l u s t r a t i v e t h a t w e l l s p e c i f i e d ; f o r example, the commitment s c a l e from the midstream survey i s b e i n g used t o p r e d i c t change i n peak consumption d u r i n g the f i r s t and second summers, p e r i o d s which preceded the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the d a t a c o l l e c t i o n i n s t r u m e n t . As w e l l , o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l i t e m s , as w e l l as p r i o r b e h a v i o u r s , and f a c t o r s r e p r e s e n t i n g a b i l i t y and knowledge a r e not i n v e s t i g a t e d . T h e i r e x c l u s i o n s i m p l i f i e s the p r e s e n t a t i o n , but p r o v i d e s a poor r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the b e h a v i o u r a l p r o c e s s f o r which they a r e c o n t r o l l i n g f a c t o r s . What t h i s model does h i n t a t , however, i s the d e c l i n e i n the s i z e of the p r i c e - r e l a t e d e f f e c t s over t i m e , and the c o n c o m i t a n t i n c r e a s e i n the i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d i n a l commitment. D u r i n g the f i r s t summer under t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s the i n f l u e n c e of the p r i c e r a t i o i s g r e a t e r than t h a t of a t t i t u d e (betas=-.27 and -.17, r e s p e c t i v e l y ) , but f o r subsequent y e a r s t h e s e e f f e c t s a r e n o n s i g n i f i c a n t . The i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d e , on the o t h e r hand, i n c r e a s e s d u r i n g the second and t h i r d summers under the r a t e s (betas=-.32 and - . 3 0 ) , p r i o r t o b e i n g reduced t o z e r o f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . The problem w i t h s u g g e s t i n g t h a t such a model a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t s the p r o c e s s which has t a k e n p l a c e i n t h i s experiment — t h a t i s , the g r a d u a l s u b s t i t u t i o n of p r i c e - r e l a t e d m o t i v a t i o n by a t t i t u d i n a l m o t i v a t i o n — i s t h a t the p r i c i n g r a t i o d e monstrates no s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on 185 commitment. T h i s may s i m p l y be due t o a poor c h o i c e of a t t i t u d e , but t h i s seems d o u b t f u l g i v e n the s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e of commitment on b e h a v i o u r , and i t s presumed t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e g r i t y . R a t h e r , the problem may be w i t h the p r i c i n g v a r i a b l e . Because o n l y t e s t customers can h o l d an a t t i t u d e toward t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g ( s i n c e such p r i c i n g has not r e c e i v e d w i d e s p r e a d p u b l i c i t y ) , c o n t r o l h o useholds have been e x c l u d e d from t h i s a n a l y s i s . T h e r e f o r e , the p r i c i n g v a r i a b l e r e p r e s e n t s the on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e r a t i o f o r t e s t customers (2:1, 4:1 or 8:1), but not f o r c o n t r o l s ( 1 : 1 ) . I f i t i s t r u e , as many eco n o m i s t s s u g g e s t , t h a t i n c r e m e n t a l i n c r e a s e s i n p r i c e (or i n t h i s c a s e , i n c r e a s e s i n the on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l ) a r e r e l a t e d t o i n c r e m e n t a l r e sponses i n demand, t h e r e i s r e a l l y no harm i n e x c l u d i n g c o n t r o l s . Assuming the r e l a t i o n between p r i c e and demand t o be l i n e a r , e s t i m a t e s of demand based on the subset of o b s e r v e d p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e s among t e s t h o useholds can be e x t r a p o l a t e d t o nonobserved c a s e s 2 o r , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , t o h o u s e h o l d s f a c i n g no d i f f e r e n c e on on- t o o f f - p e a k r a t e s . The a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n of the r e l a t i o n between p r i c e and b e h a v i o u r r e s t s on the a ssumption t h a t any p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e i s m o t i v a t i o n a l . P r i c e i n t h i s i n s t a n c e i s seen 2 For example, the r e s u l t s of e s t i m a t e s of p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s from the W i s c o n s i n experiment a r e extended t o a 10:1 on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c i n g r a t i o by Caves and C h r i s t e n s e n (1979a). 1 86 t o be i n f o r m a t i o n a l and judged l e s s on the b a s i s of the s i z e of the f i n a n c i a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s i t p r o v i d e s , than on the b a s i s t h a t i t p r o v i d e s an award of any k i n d . In o t h e r words, i t may be the case t h a t a 2:1 p r i c i n g r a t i o i s p e r c e i v e d as b e i n g no l e s s m o t i v a t i n g than an 8:1 r a t i o . I f t h i s i s so, both the r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l apparent e f f e c t s of p r i c e d u r i n g the t h r e e summers under the t e s t r a t e s , as w e l l as i t s n o n s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e on a t t i t u d e a r e acc o u n t e d f o r . That i s , i n both c a s e s the e x c l u s i o n of c o n t r o l c ustomers means the a n a l y s i s i s devoted o n l y t o households w h i c h r e c e i v e d some p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l , and the im p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e of no d i f f e r e n c e was u n s p e c i f i e d i n e q u a t i o n s . From the p o i n t of view of a c c o u n t i n g f o r a t t i t u d e , the p r i c i n g v a r i a b l e on t h i s b a s i s i s almost a c o n s t a n t . I t i s l i k e l y , of c o u r s e , t h a t b o t h t h e s e e f f e c t s of p r i c e work i n c o m b i n a t i o n t o i n f l u e n c e b e h a v i o u r . For example, the e a r l i e r models suggest some p r i c i n g e f f e c t s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r the f i r s t t e s t summer, even when the a n a l y s i s i s r e s t r i c t e d t o t e s t homes. A d d i t i o n a l e v i d e n c e of t h i s i s s u e can be shed by c o n s i d e r i n g e x a c t l y how the p r i c e s t r u c t u r e may i n f l u e n c e changes i n peak usage. T a b l e 6.3 de m o n s t r a t e s t h a t i t i s not o n l y the s i z e of the on- t o o f f - p e a k p r i c i n g r a t i o w hich i n f l u e n c e s b e h a v i o u r . In t h i s t a b l e the z e r o - o r d e r a s s o c i a t i o n s have been r e c o r d e d between p r i c e and changes i n peak consumption by peak l e n g t h and p e r i o d . The im p o r t a n t c omparison t o be made here i s between the f i r s t column of the t a b l e , i n which the a s s o c i a t i o n s 187 between p e r i o d and b e h a v i o u r a l change have been computed f o r o n l y the t e s t cutomers, and the r e m a i n i n g columns f o r which c o n t r o l s a r e r e p r e s e n t e d as w e l l — i n one i n s t a n c e s c o r e d as a 1:1 r a t i o i n a range of between 1:1 and 8:1, and i n the o t h e r as a dichotomous v a r i a b l e ( 0 = c o n t r o l , 1 = t e s t ) . TABLE 6.3 P r i c i n g Treatment E f f e c t s on Changes i n Peak Consumption Change i n Peak Consumption 1 P r i c i n g F a c t o r i n Model T e s t Only Test & C o n t r o l s Peak Length | P e r i o d 2-4-8:1 1-2-4-8:1 | Dummy2 1st Summer -.1 3 3 -.30 -.32 (.09") (.07) (.07) 2nd Summer -.11 -.30 -.34 9-Hour (.09) (.07) (.07) 3rd Summer -.14 -.25 -.23 (.09) (.07) (.07) P o s t - E x p . .01 .02 .01 (.09) ( .08) (.08) 1st Summer -.25 -.44 -.44 ( .08) ( .06) ( .06) 2nd Summer -.11 -.31 -.37 6-Hour (.09) (.07) ( .06) 3rd Summer -.08 -.23 -.26 (.09) (.07) (.07) 1 2-Hour 1st Summer -.23 -.33 -.27 (.09) ( .07) (.07) 2nd Summer -.16 -.35 -.37 (.09) ( .07) (.06) 3rd Summer -.15 -.28 -.28 (.09) ( .07) (.07) 1 — R e s i d u a l i z e d Change Score 2 — i=Test Customer/0=Control 3 — S t a n d a r d i z e d R e g r e s s i o n C o e f f i c i e n t a -- St a n d a r d E r r o r of the E s t i m a t e 188 T a b l e 6.3 i n d i c a t e s t h a t when t e s t households a l o n e a r e examined, a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h changes i n peak consumption are much a t t e n u a t e d compared t o when c o n t r o l s a r e a l s o i n c l u d e d . F u r t h e r , when the d i f f e r e n c e s i n t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c i n g r a t i o s , i n c l u d i n g c o n t r o l s ( i . e . , 1:1,2:1,4:1,8:1), a r e taken i n t o a c c o u n t , t h e r e i s no a d d i t i o n a l p r e d i c t i v e power p r o v i d e d over r e p r e s e n t i n g households as s i m p l y e x p e r i e n c i n g or not e x p e r i e n c i n g t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s (the a n a l y s i s from the dummy v a r i a b l e ) . In o t h e r words, as f a r as p r i c e i s concerned, what seems most i m p o r t a n t i n l e a d i n g t o peak r e d u c t i o n s i s not the s i z e of the d i f f e r e n c e between on- and o f f - p e a k p r i c e s , but whether t h e r e i s any d i f f e r e n c e . 3 One o t h e r m a t t e r w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h i s i s s u e remains. I t has been suggested t h a t the f a i l u r e of p r i c e t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y p r e d i c t a t t i t u d i n a l commitment may have been 3 T h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of T a b l e 6.3 i s of c o u r s e based on the assumption t h a t the a c t u a l p r i c i n g t r e atment assignment of households r e p r e s e n t e d by the t a b l e c o i n c i d e s w i t h the household members' p e r c e p t i o n s of the p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l o c c u r r i n g d u r i n g the e x p e r i m e n t . In f a c t , the degree of response t o t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s s h o u l d be more a f u n c t i o n of t h i s p e r c e i v e d p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e than t h a t which a c t u a l l y e x i s t e d (of which r e s p o n d e n t s may have been m i s t a k e n or unaware). Some a n a l y s e s from t h i s experiment ( H e b e r l e i n et a l . , 1979, 1982) a l r e a d y suggest t h a t households on the 2:1 r a t i o t e n d t o o v e r e s t i m a t e t h i s r a t i o , w h i l e t h o s e on the 8:1 r a t i o u n d e r e s t i m a t e i t . In o t h e r words, t h e r e i s not p e r f e c t congruence between the a c t u a l p r i c i n g c o n d i t i o n s , and p e o p l e ' s i n t e r n a l i z e d i m p r e s s i o n s . Hence, a t a b l e s i m i l a r t o Table 6.3, but w i t h households c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o a p e r c e i v e d , r a t h e r than the a c t u a l , p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u l d p r o v i d e more support f o r the economic n o t i o n of the degree of response b e i n g a f u n c t i o n of the s i z e of the p r i c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l . 189 due t o the r e s t r i c t i o n of the a n a l y s i s t o t e s t h o u s e h o l d s , t h e r e b y i g n o r i n g the p a r t i c u l a r i n f l u e n c e of b e i n g i n an e x p e r i m e n t . I f p o s s i b l e i t would be p r e f e r a b l e t o perfo r m an a n a l y s i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t of Table 6.3, except r e p l a c i n g p r i c e w i t h a t t i t u d e . However, t h i s cannot be done because an a t t i t u d i n a l measure on commitment i s u n a v a i l a b l e f o r c o n t r o l h o u s e h o l d s . T h e r e f o r e , the a l t e r n a t i v e i s t o re-examine the commitment s c o r e s p r o v i d e d by the midstream survey w h i l e t a k i n g i n t o account respondent's s e l f - r e p o r t s of the degree t o which b e i n g i n the experiment and e x p e r i e n c i n g any d i f f e r e n c e i n p r i c e was the b a s i s of r e s p o n s e s . T a b l e 6.4 p r o v i d e s r e s u l t s from the r e g r e s s i o n of the midstream s u r v e y commitment on a l l o t h e r p r i o r t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e l e v a n t a t t i t u d i n a l , t r e a t m e n t and sociodemographic f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g the two new a t t i t u d i n a l i t e m s , " p r i c e i s d i f f e r e n t " and the "Hawthorne" s c a l e . Comparing the f i n d i n g s t o those f o r the p r e d i c t i o n of commitment performed i n Chapter 5 (Table 5.10), we see t h a t knowledge c o n t i n u e s t o account f o r commitment, but t h a t e v a l u a t i o n of t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s and the s o c i a l norm a r e no l o n g e r s i g n i f i c a n t . R a t h e r , the two new a t t i t u d i n a l items r e s p r e s e n t i n g r e s p o n d e n t s ' p r i c e - r e l a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s of any t i m e - o f - d a y p r i c e b e i n g e q u a l l y m o t i v a t i o n a l and the demand e f f e c t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b e i n g i n an experiment now e n t e r the e q u a t i o n as s i g n f i c a n t p r e d i c t o r s of commitment. In a d d i t i o n , the i n c l u s i o n of these f a c t o r s a l l o w s the o v e r a l l 190 f i t of the model t o be improved, t o now e x p l a i n i n g 41 p e r c e n t of the v a r i a n c e from 29 p e r c e n t i n the p a s t . Hence, when c o n c e p t u a l i z e d i n t h i s way, t h e r e i s f u r t h e r e v i d e n c e t h a t the i n f l u e n c e of p r i c e on b e h a v i o u r s has been g r e a t e r than p r e v i o u s l y i n d i c a t e d . TABLE 6.4 R e g r e s s i o n of Midstream Commitment w i t h A d d i t i o n a l A t t i t u d i n a l S c a l e s P r e d i c t e d by: b e t a s • e. Knowledqe .16 • 06 A t t i t u d e s Aware. Consequences -.06 06 A s c r . R e s p o n s i b i l i t y .04 • 05 S o c i a l Norm .02 • 06 B e l . i n Energy C r i s i s -.05 • 06 E v a l u a t i o n of TOD .04 • 06 S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s .00 • 06 P r i c e i s " D i f f e r e n t " .25 • 07 "Hawthorne" S c a l e .27 • 06 Treatment P r i c e R a t i o .03 • 05 Peak Length -.08 • 05 Sociodemographics F a m i l y Income -.10 • 06 Number of P e o p l e .02 • 05 Avg. A d u l t E d u c a t i o n .26 • 05 A p p l i a n c e Index .08 • 07 R-squared 1 .41 — A d j u s t e d f o r Degrees of Freedom 191 6.5 F u r t h e r C o n s i d e r a t i o n s : Models of Combined E f f e c t s and  the " H i g h l y Committed" Two i s s u e s of minor importance remain i n o r d e r t o e l u c i d a t e f u r t h e r the responses of hou s e h o l d s d u r i n g t h i s r a t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t . One of t h e s e concerns the r e l a t i o n s e x i s t i n g between the a l t e r n a t i v e c o g n i t i v e and b e h a v i o u r i s t models d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r when a l l f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g b e h a v i o u r s uggested here as b e i n g i m p o r t a n t a c t i n c o m b i n a t i o n . The o t h e r c o n c e r n s the a s s o c i a t i o n between a t t i t u d e and b e h a v i o u r among hou s e h o l d s who remained h i g h l y committed once the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s ended. 6.5.1 A Model of Combined E f f e c t s A l l t he f a c t o r s d i s c u s s e d t o t h i s p o i n t can be combined t o account f o r b e h a v i o u r a l change a t p e r i o d s throughout the experiment i n a s t r u c t u r a l e q u a t i o n modei l i k e t h a t d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 6.C." Such models a r e g e n e r a l l y meant t o imply a c a u s a l o r g a n i z a t i o n among v a r i a b l e s , but i n t h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n t h i s i s not w h o l l y i n t e n d e d s i n c e the sheer number of f a c t o r s from c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l s o u r c e s b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d makes s p e c i f i c a t i o n of e q u a l l y sound a l t e r n a t i v e models h i g h l y l i k e l y . * The p a r t i a l l y r e c u r s i v e model d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 3.B c o n s t i t u t e s the b a s i s of t h i s model. To i t have been added s e v e r a l o t h e r v a r i a b l e s of i n t e r e s t : the s e l f - r e p o r t of a p p l i a n c e usage, and the " H a b i t " , " P r i c e D i f f e r s " , and "Hawthorne" s c a l e s . Only pa t h s h a v i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t (£ .05) a s s o c i a t i o n between a cause and e f f e c t v a r i a b l e of i n t e r e s t a r e b e i n g d i s p l a y e d by t h i s model. 1 92 N e v e r t h e l e s s , w h i l e a cknowledging the p o s s i b i l i t y of a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n s , t h i s model i s s t i l l p r e s e n t e d i n or d e r t o i l l u s t r a t e the dynamic and r e c i p r o c a l e f f e c t s of many of t h e s e f a c t o r s i n i n f l u e n c i n g each o t h e r and b e h a v i o u r a l change. Such models a l l o w the i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s of p r i n c i p a l v a r i a b l e s upon b e h a v i o u r v i a i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r s t o be a s s e s s e d , as w e l l as a l l o w i n g the a s s o c i a t i o n among f a c t o r s t o be decomposed i n t o d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s ( A l w i n and Hauser, 1975). For t h i s model Ta b l e 6.5 p r o v i d e s s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s from the r e g r e s s i o n of a l l these v a r i a b l e s upon p r i o r p r e d e t e r m i n e d and exogenous f a c t o r s . What i s e v i d e n t from the model i n F i g u r e 6.C (and even by the more s i m p l e models a l r e a d y p r e s e n t e d ) , i s t h a t no one t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e u n i q u e l y and i n d e p e n d e n t l y a c c o u n t s f o r such b e h a v i o u r s . By and l a r g e , g i v e n the responses of most customers a f t e r the experiment ended, and the p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s showing the p o s s i b l e u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n of e f f e c t s f o r p r i c e , i t i s f a i r t o c o n c l u d e t h a t i n t h i s i n s t a n c e a b e h a v i o u r i s t model of b e h a v i o u r a l change i s most e v i d e n t . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e i s support f o r the c o g n i t i v e model as w e l l : p r i c e does not w h o l l y account f o r a t t i t u d e ; t h e r e i s some c o n s i s t e n c y among a t t i t u d e s over t i m e ; and a t t i t u d e remains as an i m p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e upon b e h a v i o u r a l change throughout the e x p e r i m e n t . 1 94 TABLE 6.5 R e g r e s s i o n s of F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Change i n Demand f o r E l e c t r i c i t y under Time-of-Day P r i c i n g Dependent V a r i a b l e | P r e d i c t e d by: 1 R 2 P o s t - E x p . Consumption 3 r d Summer Consumption (.40 2) Knowledge (.19) Rep o r t e d A p p l i a n c e Use (-.23) Commitment (.16) • 20 3 Reported A p p l i a n c e Use TOD Schedule " H a b i t " (.19) A p p l i a n c e Index (-.10) S o c i a l Norm (.10) Commitment (.48) .47 Post - E x p . Commitment TOD Schedule " H a b i t " (.51) P r i o r Commitment (.41) S o c i a l Norm (.12) Aware, of Consequences (.19) .51 P o s t - E x p . Knowledge 3 rd Summer Consumption (-.12) P r i o r Knowledge (.37) .17 S o c i a l Norm F a m i l y Income (-.15) ( e x i t s u r v e y ) P r i o r S o c i a l Norm (.41) .27 A s c r i p t i o n of Respon- P r i o r A s c r . of Respons. (.42) s i b i l i t y S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s (.14) ( e x i t s u r v e y ) .20 Awareness of Conse- P r i o r Aware, of Consq. (.47) quences TOD Schedule i s " H a b i t " (.18) ( e x i t s u r v e y ) S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s (.28) .36 E v a l u a t i o n of TOD P r i o r E v a l u a t i o n (.40) ( e x i t s u r v e y ) P r i o r S o c i a l Norm (.15) S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s (.28) .44 TOD Schedule " H a b i t " P r i o r Knowledge (-.23) " D i f f e r s " S c a l e (.26) A p p l i a n c e Index (-.17) P r i o r E v a l u a t i o n (.24) .19 ( c o n t ' d - over) N e v e r t h e l e s s , over time the l a r g e s t i n f l u e n c e upon subsequent b e h a v i o u r s i s n e i t h e r f i n a n c i a l r e i n f o r c e m e n t nor a t t i t u d e . R a t h e r , p r i o r b e h a v i o u r s remain the be s t 195 TABLE 6.5 (cont'd) Dependent V a r i a b l e P r e d i c t e d by: R 2 3rd Summer Consumption F i r s t Summer Consumption (.56) Commitment (-.20) .39 Midstream Commitment " D i f f e r s " S c a l e (.25) "Hawthorne" S c a l e (.26 Knowledge (.15) Educat i o n (.25) .42 Knowledge (midstream survey) S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s (.21) A p p l i a n c e Index (.13) .05 S o c i a l Norm (midstream survey) Educat i o n (.17) "Hawthorne" S c a l e (.27) . 1 3 A s c r . of R e s p o n s i b i l t y (midstream survey) E d u c a t i o n (.13) Income (.21) .05 Aware, of Consequences (midstream survey) E d u c a t i o n (.49) " D i f f e r s " S c a l e (.13) .31 E v a l u a t i o n of TOD (midstream survey) E d u c a t i o n (.42) Income (.15) . 1 7 S u b j e c t i v e C o s t s P r i c e R a t i o (.14) " D i f f e r s " S c a l e (.48) .26 1st Summer Consumption P r i c e R a t i o (-.26) " D i f f e r s " S c a l e (-.13) .08 "Hawthorne" S c a l e E d u c a t i o n (.38) T o t a l People (-.21) .20 " D i f f e r s " S c a l e E d u c a t i o n (.45) .20 1 — V a r i a b l e s i n the e q u a t i o n a t .05 l e v e l or b e t t e r . 2 — S t a n d a r d i z e d r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s 3 — A d j u s t e d f o r Degrees of Freedom p r e d i c t o r s of f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r s , a f i n d i n g not w h o l l y i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h e i t h e r b e h a v i o u r i s t or c o g n i t i v e ( s e l f - p e r c e p t i o n i s t ) s c h o o l s . F i n a l l y , even i n c o n s i d e r a t i o n of a l l the f a c t o r s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h i s model, a s i g n i f i c a n t degree of v a r i a n c e i n b e h a v i o u r a l change i s 196 l e f t unaccounted f o r whatever p e r i o d i s c o n s i d e r e d (Table 6.5), s u g g e s t i n g t h a t many f u r t h e r avenues of r e s e a r c h t o account f o r the responses of households t o such p r i c i n g c o u l d be employed, i n a d d i t i o n t o those c o nducted h e r e . 6.5.2 P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Consumption by the H i g h l y Committed F i n a l l y , what o f . h o u s e h o l d s s t i l l c l a i m i n g t o make peak r e d u c t i o n s ? E a r l i e r the a n a l y s i s suggested t h a t w h i l e r e c i d i v i s m i n a t t i t u d i n a l commitment had o c c u r r e d f o l l o w i n g the e x p e r i m e n t , t h e r e remained a subset of households c o m p r i s i n g some 20 p e r c e n t of the sample which remained h i g h l y committed t o peak r e d u c t i o n s . The q u e s t i o n i s whether t h e s e commitment l e v e l s remained a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e d u c t i o n s i n peak consumption d u r i n g the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer. In T a b l e 6.6 the p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak f o r a l l n i n e - h o u r customers has been c l a s s i f i e d by p e r i o d , p r i c e r a t i o and commitment l e v e l . For commitment the c a t e g o r i c a l v a r i a b l e d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r g r o u p i n g households a c c o r d i n g t o low ( 5 - 1 0 ) , moderate (>10 <16), and h i g h (16-20) commitment a c c o r d i n g t o s c o r e s on the commitment s c a l e i s b e i n g employed. For each of the f i v e summers b e i n g examined, a two-way a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e t e s t s the e f f e c t s of the p r i c i n g t r e a t m e n t and commitment v a r i a b l e s i n l e a d i n g t o peak r e d u c t i o n s . 1 97 TABLE 6.6 P r o p o r t i o n of Peak Usage by Nine-Hour Group by Score on Commitment S c a l e Commitment Score A n a l y s i s of P r i c e V a r i a n c e P e r i o d Rat i o 5-10 >10<16 | 16-20 Source df F P. 2:1 • 337 1 .300 .305 Main 4 .58 .68 B a s e l i n e ( 4 2 ) (15) (19) C 3 2 .74 .48 Summer 4:1 • 294 .313 .286 p4 2 .50 .61 (5) (15) (17) CxP 4 1 .97 . 1 1 8:1 • 324 .294 .310 (2) (16) (20) 2:1 • 310 .271 .264 Main 4 2.33 .06 1st Test (4) (15) (19) C 2 3.57 .03 Summer 4: 1 • 290 .279 .227 P 2 1 .08 .34 (5) (15) (17) CxP 4 1 .28 .29 8:1 273 .253 .255 (2) (16) (20) 2:1 • 347 .277 .252 Main 4 5.37 .00 2nd Test (4) (15) (19) C 2 8.69 .00 Summer 4:1 • 264 .274 .216 P 2 2.36 .10 (5) (15) (17) CxP 4 1 .25 .30 8:1 • 312 .262 .243 (2) (16) (20) 2:1 • 351 .283 .252 Main 4 6.53 .00 3rd Test (4) (15) (19) C 2 1 1 .62 .00 Summer. 4:1 • 289 .286 .222 P 2 1 .48 .23 (5) (15) (17) CxP 4 1.17 .33 8:1 • 297 .264 .245 (2) (16) (20) 2:1 • 301 .300 .275 Main 4 3.05 .02 Pos t - E x p . (14) (16) (7) C 2 4.45 .01 Summer 4:1 • 285 .287 .244 P 2 1 .97 .15 (9) (19) (5) CxP 4 1 .07 .38 8:1 • 273 .309 .279 (10) (21) (5) 1 -- P r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak 2 — N 3 — Commitment 41 — P r i c e R a t i o 198 T h i s t a b l e shows t h a t f o r the b a s e l i n e summer t h e r e was no d i f f e r e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o the p r o p o r t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y consumed on-peak a c c o r d i n g t o e i t h e r p r i c i n g t r e a t m e n t or commitment c a t e g o r i e s . However, f o r a l l subsequent summers, i n c l u d i n g the p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l summer, commitment i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h peak r e d u c t i o n s . An i n s p e c t i o n of the c e l l means f o r the h i g h l y committed group r e v e a l s g r e a t e r r e d u c t i o n s than f o r the o t h e r commitment c a t e g o r i e s d u r i n g the t h r e e t e s t summers. F o l l o w i n g the experiment some r e c i d i v i s m i s the s e b e h a v i o u r s o c c u r r e d f o r a l l c a t e g o r i e s of commitment. However, mean p r o p o r t i o n of on-peak consumption f o r the h i g h l y committed group of households s t i l l remains below t h a t of the b a s e l i n e summer, as w e l l as below the consumption l e v e l s of o t h e r n i n e - h o u r homes. In o t h e r words, w h i l e i n g e n e r a l t h e r e were few customers r e m a i n i n g g r e a t l y committed or c o n t i n u i n g t o reduce consumption d u r i n g peak t i m e s f o l l o w i n g the 199 e x p e r i m e n t , t h e r e were some households whose h i g h commitment l e v e l s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o n t i n u e d low l e v e l s of consumption even when the r a t e s were no l o n g e r i n e f f e c t . 5 5 F u r t h e r d e m o n s t r a t i o n of t h i s i s p r o v i d e d by the r e g r e s s i o n of p o s t - e x p e r i m e n t a l peak consumption on p r i o r s o c i o d e m o g r a p h i c , b e h a v i o u r a l and a t t i t u d i n a l f a c t o r s i n which the i n f l u e n c e of h i g h l y committed households i s r e p r e s e n t e d by a dichotomous v a r i a b l e . The e q u a t i o n of i m p o r t a n t e f f e c t s , i n s t a n d a r d i z e d c o e f i c i e n t s , i s : P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l Change = . 4 1 ( 3 r d Summer's Change) + ( - . 1 5 ) ( H i g h l y Committed) + .19(Knowledge) + e. R 2=.18. The c o e f f i c i e n t f o r the commitment v a r i a b l e does not q u i t e r e a c h s i g n f i c a n c e (p=.lO), but t h i s i s more a f u n c t i o n of the s m a l l sample s i z e (N=104), than the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t i t i s u n r e l a t e d t o change. 2 0 0 6.6 Chapter Summary In t h i s c h a p t e r the foc u s has been on peak consumption o c c u r r i n g p r i o r t o , d u r i n g and f o l l o w i n g the t i m e - o f - d a y r a t e s . The i n t e n t i o n has been t o e v a l u a t e the e f f e c t s of a t t i t u d e and p r i c e i n l e a d i n g t o peak r e d u c t i o n s . A p r i m a r y concern has been w i t h changes t o consumption once the experiment ended. T h i s b e h a v i o u r , compared w i t h t h a t o c c u r r i n g w h i l e the s p e c i a l r a t e s were i n e f f e c t , c o n s t i t u t e s an i m p o r t a n t t e s t of the r e l a t i o n between p r i c e and a t t i t u d e and, as w e l l , of the a l t e r n a t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s p r o v i d e d by c o g n i t i v e and b e h a v i o u r i s t t h e o r i e s i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y . The a n a l y s i s shows a g e n e r a l r e t u r n t o pr e - e x p e r i m e n t consumption l e v e l s f o l l o w i n g the c o n c l u s i o n of the e x p e r i m e n t a l r a t e s , a f i n d i n g i n support of the b e h a v i o u r i s t and economic t h e o r e t i c a l approaches. Not u n e x p e c t e d l y , t h e r e f o r e , a t t i t u d i n a l commitment i s no l o n g e r a s s o c i a t e d , by and l a r g e , w i t h r e d u c t i o n s i n . peak e l e c t r i c i t y consumption, nor are many of the o t h e r a t t i t u d i n a l and sociodemographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of ho u s e h o l d s i n v e s t i g a t e d h e r e . The d i s c u