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The causes of scientific disputes in impact assessment and management : the Utah mines case Martin, Brian Randall 1985

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THE CAUSES OF SCIENTIFIC DISPUTES IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENTS THE UTAH MINES CASE. By BRIAN RANDALL MARTIN B.Ed., The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1976 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS School oi Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l 1985 (c) B r i a n R a n d a l l M a r t i n , 1985 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. I t i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of S c h o o l o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date A P r i l 2 4 > 1 9 8 5 ( i i ) ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s i d e n t i f i e s t h e causes of d i s p u t e s between s c i e n t i s t s who a r e i n v o l v e d i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management (EIAM), and s u g g e s t s some c r i t i c a l e l e ments of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y peer r e v i e w . I t does t h i s w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of a case s t u d y , t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment, m o n i t o r i n g , and management of t h e I s l a n d Copper Mine marine t a i l i n g s d i s c h a r g e i n t o Rupert I n l e t , B.C. The e v e n t s of t h i s case a r e a n a l y s e d , drawing on l i t e r a t u r e on the s c i e n t i s t ' s r o l e i n impact assessment and management, and on t h e p h i l o s o p h y and s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e . The case s t u d y and l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e causes of such s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s a r e complex. The c o m p l e x i t y and u n c e r t a i n t y of the p h y s i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s of a f j o r d system a r e one c a u s e . L o g i s t i c a l f a i l i n g s i n i n t e g r a t i n g s c i e n t i s t s i n t o t h e p r o c e s s are a n o t h e r : poor t i m i n g of s c i e n t i s t s ' e f f o r t s ; f a i l u r e s of communication! and l a c k of a c c o u n t a b i l i t y a r e examples. Poor methodology and i n a d e q u a t e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n a l s o caused d i s p u t e s . The t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y n a t u r e of t h e s c i e n t i f i c problems common t o EIAM causes d i s a g r e e m e n t s of a d i f f e r e n t n a t u r e — over t h e r e l e v a n c e of v a r i o u s d i s c i p l i n e s ' r e s e a r c h f o c i t o t h e problem at hand, and over what c o n s t i t u t e s a c c e p t a b l e s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e . V a l u e and i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t s between s c i e n t i s t s , which i n f l u e n c e both t h e t r a j e c t o r y of r e s e a r c h and t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of i t s r e s u l t s , complete t h e t y p o l o g y of t h e causes of d i s p u t e s . The t h e s i s recommends t h e elements of peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s n e c e s s a r y t o r e s o l v e t h e s e d i s p u t e s . Peer r e v i e w s h o u l d be p r e - e m p t i v e , by f o c u s s i n g on r e s e a r c h d e s i g n where p o s s i b l e , and s h o u l d be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e range of r e l e v a n t s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e s , and s h o u l d f a c i l i t a t e c o n s t r u c t i v e s o l u t i o n s r a t h e r than t h e d e f e n s e of p o s i t i o n s . ( i i i ) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page A b s t r a c t • i i Table of C o n t e n t s i i i L i s t of T a b l e s v i L i s t of F i g u r e s v i i Acknowledgements . v i i i CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Problem Statement and R a t i o n a l e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 B. The Utah Case Study 2 C. The S t r u c t u r e of t h e Argument 4 D. D e f i n i t i o n s 7 E. Methodology • 7 CHAPTER 2. THE UTAH CASE STUDY: THE SCIENTIFIC ISSUES 9 A. The M i n e - M i l l i n g and M a r i n e T a i l i n g s D i s p o s a l P r o c e s s 9 B. The P h y s i c a l S e t t i n g of R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t 13 C. The S c i e n t i f i c I s s u e s 17 D. C o n c l u s i o n s . . . . . . . 32 CHAPTER 3. THE UTAH CASE: CHRONOLOGY 34 PART I. THE ASSESSMENT PHASE 36 A. The N e g o t i a t i o n s Between Utah Mines and DFF, and the PCB Review 36 B. The P u b l i c H e a r i n g 40 ( i v ) PART I I . THE MANAGEMENT PHASE 41 C. The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Independent Agency 41 D. The E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e 45 E. The Waldichuk and Buchanan Review 48 F. A f t e r m a t h 50 8. C o n c l u s i o n s .... 51 CHAPTER 4. 8CIENCE IN IMPACT A88E8SMENT AND MANAGEMENTi PROBLEMS AND APPROACHES 52 A. I n t r o d u c t i o n 52 B. C h a r a c t e r i z i n g Impact Assessment and Management Problems 54 C. The Impact Assessment and Management P r o c e s s 60 D. The S c i e n t i f i c Component of Impact Assessment and Management. 64 E. S t a g e s i n t h e A p p l i c a t i o n of S c i e n c e 74 F. C o n c l u s i o n s . . . . . 96 CHAPTER 5. EXPECTATIONS OF OBJECTIVITYi PHILOSOPHICAL UNDERPINNINGS.. 98 A. O b j e c t i v i t y and the A u t h o r i t y of S c i e n c e 98 B. From P o s i t i v i s m t o Popper....... .......101 C. Opening Pandora's Box« Thomas Kuhn ....107 D. T r y i n g Out the C o n t e n t s : L a k a t o s and Feyerabend. 114 E. C r i t i c a l C o n s c i o u s n e s s at Utah 117 CHAPTER 6. EXPECTATIONS OF OBJECTIVITYi SOCIOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS 124 A. I n t e r e s t s and V a l u e s 125 B. The C o n s t r u c t i o n of R e p l i c a b i 1 i t y 132 C. The N e g o t i a t i o n of C r e d i b i l i t y 134 D. Summary and C o n c l u s i o n s . . .137 (V) CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 142 PART I . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 142 A. The Causes of S c i e n t i f i c D i s p u t e ...145 B. The O b j e c t i v e s of C r i t i c a l -Peer Review 150 PART I I . RECOMMENDATIONS 153 C. The I n d i v i d u a l i n Impact Assessment and Management..... 153 D. C r e a t i n g Forums f o r D i s p u t e R e s o l u t i o n : A p p r o p r i a t e Peer Review P r o c e s s e s ...154 E. F u r t h e r Research 161 REFERENCES 162 ( v i ) LIST OF TABLES T a b l e 2.1. P h y s i c a l P a r a m e t e r s of R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t 15 T a b l e 3.1. The O r i g i n a l M o n i t o r i n g Program a t Utah Mines 43 Ta b l e 4.1. P r o d u c i n g S c i e n t i f i c Knowledge f o r Impact Assessment and Management! a Sequence of P o t e n t i a l A c t i v i t i e s 66 Ta b l e 6.1. The R o l e of I n t e r e s t s i n S e t t i n g R e search P r i o r i t i e s . 1 3 0 T a b l e 7.1. Examples of S c i e n t i f i c Review P r o c e s s e s i n the Utah Mines Case....... 158 ( v i i ) LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e 2.1. R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t and t h e I s l a n d Copper Mine 10 F i g u r e 2.2. Mine Waste G e n e r a t i o n and D i s p o s a l P r o c e s s e s . . . . . . . . 12 F i g u r e 2.3. The E s t u a r i n e C i r c u l a t i o n Model 19 F i g u r e 2.4. A Schematic Model of F j o r d C i r c u l a t i o n on a Dense F l o o d T i d e 19 F i g u r e 2.5. T a i l i n g s D i s t r i b u t i o n i n May-June 1974 27 F i g u r e 4.1. An I d e a l i z e d Impact Assessment and Management P r o c e s s 62 ( v i i i ) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T h i s r e s e a r c h was i n p a r t funded by a U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia g r a d u a t e f e l l o w s h i p , and by Westwater Research C e n t r e . I thank t h o s e government a g e n c i e s who p r o v i d e d a c c e s s t o t h e i r f i l e s , and t h e many s t a f f w i t h i n t h o s e a g e n c i e s who a s s i s t e d me. I have a p p r e c i a t e d the t i m e t h a t many people have taken t o d i s c u s s the e v e n t s of the Utah Mine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l case w i t h me. Anthony H.J. Dorcey, Dr. W i l l i a m Rees, and Dr. Ed Levy a l l o f f e r e d me sound c r i t i c i s m , a d v i c e , and most of a l l , t h e i r s u p p o r t . F i n a l l y I must thank my f a m i l y f o r t h e i r a c c e p t a n c e of too many l a t e n i g h t s and l o s t weekends. (1) CHAPTER 1  INTRODUCTION A. Problem Statement and R a t i o n a l e . The purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o i d e n t i f y the causes of d i s p u t e s between s c i e n t i s t s who a r e i n v o l v e d i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management, and t o suggest some c r i t i c a l e l e ments of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y peer r e v i e w . T h i s t h e s i s w i l l t h e r e f o r e p r o v i d e one of the n e c e s s a r y bases f o r d e s i g n i n g d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s which can a s s i s t i n the r e s o l u t i o n of t h e s e d i s p u t e s . The a n a l y s i s draws on a case s t u d y of marine mine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l — the I s l a n d Copper Nine at Rupert I n l e t , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , which i s owned by Utah M i n e s — and l i t e r a t u r e on the s c i e n t i s t ' s r o l e i n impact assessment and management, and the p h i l o s o p h y and s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e . One must, I b e l i e v e , i d e n t i f y t he cause of a problem b e f o r e a s o l u t i o n can be c r e a t e d . By f i r s t i d e n t i f y i n g t h e v a r y i n g t y p e s of causes of d i s p u t e s , the components of e f f e c t i v e p r o c e s s e s f o r r e s o l v i n g t h e s e d i s p u t e s can be more r e a d i l y i d e n t i f i e d and e v a l u a t e d . T h i s b e l i e f p r o v i d e s one r a t i o n a l e f o r my t h e s i s . I c o n c e n t r a t e on e s t a b l i s h i n g c r i t e r i a which such d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s e s must s a t i s f y . I w i l l n o t , however, o f f e r a comprehensive framework f o r s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n . I l e a v e t h i s f o r l a t e r r e s e a r c h . To u n d e r s t a n d the causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s i n impact assessment and management, i t i s c r i t i c a l t o d e f i n e the a p p r o p r i a t e e x p e c t a t i o n s t h a t we can have of s c i e n t i f i c o b j e c t i v i t y . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e when s c i e n c e i s o p e r a t i n g under c o n d i t i o n s which c h a r a c t e r i z e e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g — complex and u n c e r t a i n n a t u r a l phenomena; s c i e n t i f i c problems which span a (2) number of d i s c i p l i n e s ; and t h e s t r o n g l y h e l d and o f t e n c o n f l i c t i n g v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s of d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , p u b l i c i n t e r e s t g r o u p s , and the s c i e n t i s t s t h e m s e l v e s . I argue t h r o u g h o u t t h i s t h e s i s t h a t the s c i e n t i f i c d i s a g r e e m e n t s are o f t e n i m p l i c i t l y over what t h e s e r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n s of s c i e n t i f i c o b j e c t i v i t y a r e . A l t h o u g h I have c o n c e n t r a t e d on impact asseessment and management, t h i s t h e s i s w i l l have i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a l l a p p l i e d or " m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d " d i s p u t e s , and, i n f a c t , s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s i n g e n e r a l . One of my o b j e c t i v e s i s t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t i n some r e s p e c t s the d i s p u t e s which c h a r a c t e r i z e a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e are r e f l e c t i o n s of d i s p u t e s which occur more or l e s s f r e q u e n t l y i n a l l s c i e n c e . F i n a l l y , i t i s worth m e n t i o n i n g t h a t marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l has been recommended as a g e n e r a l s o l u t i o n f o r t h e d i s p o s a l of mine wastes ( c f E l l i s , ed., 1982). A l t h o u g h I make no judgements about the c o r r e c t n e s s or o t h e r w i s e of the arguments f a v o r i n g or o b j e c t i n g t o marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l , the t h e s i s does i l l u m i n a t e t h e n a t u r e of t h i s i m p o r t a n t d e b a t e , and the t y p e s of e v i d e n c e t h a t each s i d e has used t o s u p p o r t i t s c a s e . B. The Utah Case Study. I s h a l l use the Utah Mine case s t u d y t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e causes of such d i s p u t e s and t o suggest p o t e n t i a l p r o c e s s e s f o r t h e i r r e s o l u t i o n . The h i s t o r y of the case b e g i n s i n 1968, when Utah Mines was approached by the then Department of F i s h e r i e s and F o r e s t r y t o d i s c u s s t h e d i s p o s a l of mine t a i l i n g s from a mine they were p r o p o s i n g on t h e s h o r e s of Rupert I n l e t . The fundamental i s s u e d i s c u s s e d was whether the t a i l i n g s s h o u l d be d i s p o s e d of o n - l a n d or at depth i n the i n l e t . On-land d i s p o s a l was q u i c k l y p r e c l u d e d , (3) and f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n s r e v o l v e d around m i n i m i z i n g the r i s k s of s e r i o u s e n v i r o n m e n t a l e f f e c t s caused by marine d i s p o s a l . These d i s c u s s i o n s between government b i o l o g i s t s , c o n s u l t a n t s , and company e n g i n e e r s r a i s e d a wide range of s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s — i s s u e s which were o n l y i n p a r t r e s o l v e d d u r i n g the n e g o t i a t i o n s between Utah Mines and DFF, and which were i n c r e a s i n g l y r a i s e d by the B r i t i s h Columbia P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l B r a n c h , p u b l i c i n t e r e s t groups and academic s c i e n t i s t s . In r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s a c o n d i t i o n was a t t a c h e d t o the p e r m i t which r e q u i r e d t h a t an independent agency be formed t o conduct a m o n i t o r i n g program and t o i n t e r p r e t t h e r e s u l t s . T h i s was u n d e r t a k e n by the M i n e r a l E n g i n e e r i n g Department and t h e I n s t i t u t e of Oceanography at t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u mbia. However, between 1974-77 the d a t a and the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of i t which were made by t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Independent Agency (UBC IA) were c h a l l e n g e d by r e g u l a t o r y s c i e n t i s t s of the E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e , who c onducted t h e i r own s t u d i e s , or r e q u e s t e d o t h e r government r e s e a r c h a g e n c i e s t o conduct s t u d i e s , of the e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s on t h e f j o r d ecosystem. In an attempt t o r e s o l v e t h e s e c o n t i n u i n g d i s p u t e s a two person r e v i e w was conducted between 1978-80 by the f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l a g e n c i e s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e g u l a t i o n . T h i s r e v i e w , though i t appeared t o s a t i s f a c t o r i l y d e t e r m i n e some of the i s s u e s over which a l l s i d e s c o u l d a g r e e , d i d not r e s o l v e the major p o i n t s which s e p a r a t e d them, and i n f a c t i t s e l f r a i s e d o t h e r i s s u e s . Many of the s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s were never e n t i r e l y r e s o l v e d , and c o n t i n u e today. T h i s c a s e i s an a p p r o p r i a t e f o c u s f o r my a n a l y s i s f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g r e a s o n s t 1. The e n v i r o n m e n t a l managers from government a g e n c i e s and the company e x p l i c i t l y a t t e m p t e d t o i n c o r p o r a t e d e f e n s i b l e s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n t h e assessment and management of the e f f e c t s of (4) i n c r e a s e d s e d i m e n t a t i o n , t u r b i d i t y , and t o x i c metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s on marine o r g a n i s m s ; 2. the s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s were s u f f i c i e n t l y complex and u n c e r t a i n t o r e q u i r e s c i e n t i f i c knowledge t o be produced or i n t e r p r e t e d t o s o l v e them, r a t h e r than j u s t a p p l i e d t e c h n i c a l l y ; 3. t h e p r o d u c t i o n of t h i s knowledge was promoted as 'best s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e ' (Evans e t _ a l _ 1979137), and t h e r e f o r e ought t o have produced c r e d i b l e knowledge, and y e t the r o l e of s c i e n t i s t s and the r e l i a b i l i t y of t h e s c i e n c e remained the s u b j e c t of d i s p u t e f o r over a decade; 4. t h e c a s e i s w e l l documented i n t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t s and j o u r n a l a r t i c l e s ; and, 5. the c o n t r o v e r s y extended beyond assessment t o i n c l u d e 13 y e a r s of m o n i t o r i n g of the e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s d i s c h a r g e and a t t e m p t s t o manage them. In t h i s r e s p e c t the case r e p r e s e n t s a u n i q u e o p p o r t u n i t y t o a s s e s s one of the e a r l i e s t e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h what i s i n c r e a s i n g l y thought of as t h e a p p r o p r i a t e method of d e a l i n g w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l p e r t u r b a t i o n — impact m o n i t o r i n g . C. The S t r u c t u r e of the Argument. As my t h e s i s draws on a wide range of e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e and l i t e r a t u r e , i t i s w o r t h w h i l e t o t r a c e the path i t w i l l f o l l o w , i n the hope t h a t t h i s w i l l make i t e a s i e r f o r the r e a d e r . I i n t e n d t o pursue my o b j e c t i v e s by a n a l y z i n g t h e case s t u d y w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of t h r e e b o d i e s of l i t e r a t u r e . These a r e the l i t e r a t u r e on impact assessment and management, th e p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e c e n t r e d on t h e Popper-Kuhn d e b a t e , and the r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e i n the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. The t h e s i s w i l l t h e r e f o r e proceed i n t h e f o l l o w i n g way: 1. I s h a l l d e s c r i b e and a n a l y z e a complex case s t u d y , which i n v o l v e d (5) s c i e n t i s t s from a range of d i s c i p l i n e s who were based i n a number of d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n t e x t s — academic r e s e a r c h e r s ; government r e s o u r c e managers w i t h s c i e n t i f i c t r a i n i n g ; p r i v a t e c o n s u l t a n t s ; and government r e s e a r c h s c i e n t i s t s . I w i l l t r a c e over time the s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s which a r o s e between t h e s e s c i e n t i s t s , and the s t e p s which were taken t o r e s o l v e them. T h i s d e s c r i p t i o n w i l l p r o v i d e the r e a d e r w i t h a s u f f i c i e n t l y d e t a i l e d e x p l a n a t i o n of marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l p r o c e s s e s , f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n , the t o x i c i t y of m e t a l s i n marine e n v i r o n m e n t s , and f j o r d e c o l o g y so t h a t the debates which a r o s e around t h e s e i s s u e s may be used t o e x e m p l i f y t h e a n a l y s i s which f o l l o w s . The case d e m o n s t r a t e s the d i f f e r e n t ways s c i e n t i f i c d i s a g r e e m e n t s a r e e x p r e s s e d , and t h a t t h e s e d i s a g r e e m e n t s can remain a r e c u r r i n g problem over an extended p e r i o d of t i m e even i n the f a c e of e x t e n s i v e e f f o r t s t o r e s o l v e them. I t a l s o i n d i c a t e s some of the causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s which a r i s e i n v a r y i n g s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s , i n v o l v i n g s c i e n t i s t s w i t h d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n a r y backgrounds and i n s t i t u t i o n a l a f f i l i a t i o n s , i n an attempt t o r e s o l v e complex and u n c e r t a i n s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s . 2. T y p i c a l impact assessment and management problems a r e then c h a r a c t e r i z e d , and t h e case a n a l y z e d i n terms of the l i t e r a t u r e on the r o l e t h a t s c i e n t i s t s p l a y i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management, p a r t i c u l a r l y as p r o d u c e r s or consumers of r e s e a r c h . Though the b e g i n n i n g of the Utah case p r e d a t e d much of t h i s l i t e r a t u r e , many of t h e p r e s c r i p t i o n s which emerge i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , such as t h e m o n i t o r i n g of i m p a c t s t o t e s t i n i t i a l p r e d i c t i o n s , were a p p l i e d i n t h i s c a s e . Yet t h e a n a l y s e s i n d i c a t e t h a t d i s p u t e s f r e q u e n t l y remained u n r e s o l v e d . The p r e s c r i p t i o n s which a r i s e from t h i s l i t e r a t u r e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management w i l l be e v a l u a t e d w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t of the Utah c a s e . I i n d i c a t e t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e s e p r e s c r i p t i o n s were (6) r i g o r o u s l y a p p l i e d , and e v a l u a t e t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n would have l e d t o agreements between s c i e n t i s t s . I c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e s o l u t i o n s o f f e r e d i n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e a re o n l y p a r t i a l . Two a r e a s , r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n f o r m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e , i n p a r t i c u l a r r e q u i r e improvement. 3 . I w i l l then t u r n t o the l i t e r a t u r e on the p h i l o s o p h y and s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e , which w i l l be used t o more c a r e f u l l y examine t h e s o c i a l bases of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. T h i s s e c t i o n b e g i n s w i t h the Popper-Kuhn d e b a t e , and t h e (I b e l i e v e ) u n n o t i c e d i m p l i c a t i o n s of Kuhn's work f o r t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n c e . Arguments d e v e l o p e d from t h i s l i t e r a t u r e w i l l r e v e a l under what c o n d i t i o n s d i s a g r e e m e n t s between s c i e n t i s t s a r e t o be e x p e c t e d , and w i l l t h e r e f o r e p i n p o i n t the t y p e s of i s s u e s which a r e i n f a c t , r a t h e r than o n l y a p p a r e n t l y , t h e causes of the d i s p u t e s . T h i s l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t s t h a t the o r i g i n s of t h e s e d i s p u t e s have a spectrum of c a u s e s ; f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e d i f f e r i n g mandates of two i n s t i t u t i o n s may r e s u l t i n v e r y d i f f e r e n t v a l u e p o s i t i o n s b e i n g h e l d by s c i e n t i s t s from t h e two a g e n c i e s , or d i f f e r e n c e s i n s c i e n t i f i c t r a i n i n g t h a t r e s u l t from the d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n a r y backgrounds of s c i e n t i s t s may r e s u l t i n d i s p u t e s over the a c c e p t a b i l i t y of e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e , or d i f f e r i n g t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n s taken by s c i e n t i s t s may r e s u l t i n them making incommensurable i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of t h e a v a i l a b l e e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e , or i n p r o p o s i n g r e s e a r c h f o c i which are a p p a r e n t l y i n c o m p a t i b l e . Peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s a r e examined as the mechanism which n o r m a l l y f a c i l i t a t e s t h e r e s o l u t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s . The Utah ca s e w i l l be used t o e x e m p l i f y the arguments which I d e v e l o p out of t h i s 1 i t e r a t u r e . 4. The t h e s i s w i l l c o n c l u d e by i n t e g r a t i n g t h e s e b o d i e s of l i t e r a t u r e , and t h e l e s s o n s of t h e Utah c a s e , t o produce a c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of t h e c auses ( 7 ) of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s , and a s e t of recommendations on t h e a p p r o p r i a t e o b j e c t i v e s of peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s i n a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e s , t h e c r i t i c a l e lements t h e s e p r o c e s s e s must p o s s e s s , and t h e q u a l i t i e s i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t s must b r i n g t o t h i s work. These recommendations a r e i n t e n d e d t o a i d i n d e s i g n i n g d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s e s which might s u i t p a r t i c u l a r c a s e s . F i n a l l y , I o u t l i n e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i m p l i c a t e d t h r o u g h o u t the c o u r s e of t h i s t h e s i s . D. D e f i n i t i o n s . Where I have used words which have ambiguous or m u l t i p l e meanings I have d e f i n e d them p a r e n t h e t i c a l l y i n t h e t e x t . At t h i s p o i n t I wish o n l y t o i n d i c a t e what I r e f e r t o by "impact assessment and management." E n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management a r e , i n my f o r m u l a t i o n , i n t i m a t e l y l i n k e d p r o c e s s e s t h a t p r e d i c t and e v a l u a t e t h e l i k e l y e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s caused by a p r o j e c t (or p o s s i b l y a p o l i c y ) f o l l o w e d by an e x p l i c i t a ttempt t o m o n i t o r and manage p r e d i c t e d or u n p r e d i c t e d i m p a c t s as they a r e i d e n t i f i e d t h r o u g h m o n i t o r i n g . A more comprehensive d e f i n i t i o n i s d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 4. E. Methodology. My a n a l y s i s of the Utah case i s based on r e v i e w s of p u b l i s h e d j o u r n a l a r t i c l e s , books, u n p u b l i s h e d r e p o r t s , and government agency f i l e s . Though I have seen r e c e n t f i l e s I h a v B agreed t o t r e a t t h e s e c o n f i d e n t i a l l y . I have r e f e r e n c e d d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h some of t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h i s c a s e , but have not a t t e m p t e d t o conduct e x t e n s i v e i n t e r v i e w s w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of t h i s t h e s i s . In a d d i t i o n I have a n a l y z e d t h r e e o t h e r b o d i e s of l i t e r a t u r e : t h a t p e r t a i n i n g t o the r o l e of s c i e n t i s t s i n impact assessment and management; Popper and Kuhn's w r i t i n g s and the debate which t h e s e g e n e r a t e d ; and the v e r y (8) r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e on the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. My r e l i a n c e on w r i t t e n s o u r c e s t o d e s c r i b e the Utah case has l i m i t e d t h e e x t e n t t o which I c o u l d document e v e n t s t h a t my a n a l y s i s of t h i s l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t e d were l i k e l y t o have o c c u r r e d . Where t h i s i s the case I have i n d i c a t e d so i n the t e x t . (9) CHAPTER 2  THE UTAH CASE; SCIENTIFIC ISSUES Though my a n a l y s i s f o c u s e s on the I s l a n d Copper Mine case s t u d y , my i n t e n t i o n i s not t o p r o v i d e a comprehensive a n a l y s i s of t h i s c a s e , or of mine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l i n marine e n v i r o n m e n t s g e n e r a l l y . The case s t u d y w i l l i n s t e a d be used t o p r o v i d e s p e c i f i c examples of t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t s and arguments t h a t a r i s e d u r i n g the a n a l y s i s . At t h i s p o i n t t h e m i n e - m i l l i n g p r o c e s s and environment w i l l be d e s c r i b e d , and the c e n t r a l s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s brought t o l i g h t . A. The M i n e - M i l l i n g and Marine T a i l i n g s D i s p o s a l P r o c e s s e s . The t e c h n i c a l d e t a i l s of t h e m i n e - m i l l i n g and marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l p r o c e s s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n Evans art aj^ (1979) and i n Marine Tai 1 i n g s Today ( E l l i s ed. 1982). My g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n i s a b s t r a c t e d from t h e s e s o u r c e s u n l e s s n o t e d . The I s l a n d Copper Mine i s an open p i t mine of low grade copper and molybdenum o r e . The ore i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 0.52% copper and 0.015% molybdenum. The mine c u r r e n t l y p r o c e s s e s 40,000 tonnes per day of o r e , but must a l s o remove another 100,000 tonnes of waste rock from the p i t . The waste r o c k i s p r e d o m i n a n t l y d i s p o s e d of at a marine dump s i t e on the n o r t h shore of Rupert I n l e t , a l t h o u g h minor amounts a re d i s p o s e d of on l a n d . C u r r e n t e s t i m a t e s of t h e mine's l i f e a r e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 25 y e a r s , though t h i s depends on f u t u r e metal p r i c e s . The o r e i s t r u c k e d t o the m i l l i n g complex, where i t i s p r o g r e s s i v e l y c r u s h e d then ground i n b a l l m i l l s u n t i l i t ran g e s i n c o n s i s t e n c y between f i n e f l o u r and f i n e sand (median p a r t i c l e d i a m e t e r i s 0.030 mm, and 65-75% i s f i n e r than 0.074mm). G r i n d i n g t o t h i s f i n e n e s s i 6 r e q u i r e d i f s u f f i c i e n t s u r f a c e a r e a i s t o be exposed f o r the m e t a l s t o be r e l e a s e d i n t h e f l o t a t i o n Figure 2.1. Rupert-Holberg I n l e t and the I s l a n d Copper Mine. (11) phase of the m i l l i n g p r o c e s s . The o r e , i n a f r e s h w a t e r s l u r r y , e n t e r s the f l o t a t i o n m i l l , where r e a g e n t s a r e added. These r e a g e n t s i n d u c e f r o t h i n g of the s l u r r y as i t i s a e r a t e d , and p r e f e r e n t i a l adherance of the copper or molybdenum p a r t i c l e s t o the f r o t h (Waldichuk and Buchanan 1981). T h i s p r o c e s s i s r e p e a t e d a number of t i m e s . The m i n e r a l r i c h f r o t h i s c o l l e c t e d and d r i e d , becoming copper or molybdenum c o n c e n t r a t e . The b a l a n c e of the r e a g e n t s accompany t h i s c o n c e n t r a t e d f r a c t i o n , r a t h e r than t h e t a i l i n g s s l u r r y . Between 80-90X of the copper c o n t a i n e d i n t h e ore i s e x t r a c t e d d u r i n g t h i s m i l l i n g p r o c e s s . The c o n c e n t r a t e s are s h i p p e d by sea from l o a d i n g docks on t h e n o r t h s h o r e of Rupert I n l e t . The t a i l i n g s ( the ground rock from which t h e m e t a l s have been removed) proceed t o two t a i l i n g s t h i c k e n e r ponds, where c o a g u l a n t s and f l o c c u l a n t s a r e added t o r e c l a i m as much water as p o s s i b l e f o r r e c y c l i n g t h r ough the m i l l i n g p r o c e s s , and t o d e c r e a s e t h e number of f i n e p a r t i c l e s i n the t a i l i n g s d i s c h a r g e . Such f l o c c u l a t e d p a r t i c l e s a r e , i f not r e s e p a r a t e d i n the e f f l u e n t f l u m e , l e s s l i k e l y t o be suspended i n the i n l e t and t o i n c r e a s e i t s t u r b i d i t y . The t h i c k e n e d t a i l i n g s s l u r r y , which i s 40X s o l i d s by w e i g h t , f l o w s i n p i p e s t o the shore of Rupert I n l e t , where i t i s d i l u t e d at l e a s t one-to-one w i t h s e a w a t e r . The d i l u t e d e f f l u e n t f l o w s t h r o u g h a 1.05 m p i p e 240 m o f f s h o r e , where i t i s d i s c h a r g e d at a depth of 49 m below mean sea l e v e l . The t a i l i n g s a r e d i l u t e d w i t h seawater t o i n c r e a s e the d e n s i t y of the t a i l i n g s s l u r r y and t o enhance the f l o c c u l a t i o n of t a i l i n g s p a r t i c l e s , i n an a t t e m p t t o keep the f l o w near t h e bottom of t h e i n l e t . F i g u r e 2.2 i l l u s t r a t e s the s t e p s i n v o l v e d i n the p r o c e s s d e s c r i b e d above, and h i g h l i g h t s t h e f o u r main s o u r c e s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n t a m i n a n t s and the c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s which i n f l u e n c e t h e i r p o t e n t i a l h a z a r d ( f o r a more (12) PRECIPITATION AND DRAINAGE I E MINE MINE DRAINAGE— di s s o l v e d metals WASTE ROCK—volume — d i s t r i b u t i o n by parte i c l e s i z e — b i o a v a i l a b i l i t y o f metals ORE WATER SOURCE—lowering o f c r i t i c a l water flows — f r y entrainment MILLING PROCESS—toxicity o f added reagents — r e c o v e r a b i l i t y o f reagents QDNCENTRATE—spills during handling TAILINGS Ph y s i c a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : Chemical C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : —volume — b i o a v a i l a b i l i t y (pH; minerology) — d e n s i t y — m e t a l concentrations — p a r t i c l e s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n ( s o l i d vs. dissolved) — f l o c c u l a t i o n SEAWATER EFFLUENT DILUTION — f i n a l density — a i r entrainment — f l o c c u l a t i o n of p a r t i c l e s EFFLUENT DISCHARGE—depth — v e l o c i t y FJORD CIRCULATION PROCESSES TAILINGS DISTRIBUTION - - t u r b i d i t y — r e s u s p e n t i o n o f deposited materials — a r e a l extent of deposition Figure 2.2. Mine Waste Generation and Disposal Processes. complete d i s c u s s i o n of t h e s e v a r i a b l e s , see t h e s e c t i o n on s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s ) . As t h i s i s an open p i t mine, mine d r a i n a g e water may c o n t a i n h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of m e t a l s . The waste rock b y - p r o d u c t of the m i n i n g p r o c e s s i s m e t a l - b e a r i n g , though not c o m m e r c i a l l y v i a b l e as an o r e . I t may t h e r e f o r e r e l e a s e m e t a l s i n s o l u b l e form. The waste rock from the Utah o p e r a t i o n i s d i s p o s e d of i n a marine f i l l , where i t c o v e r s i n t e r t i d a l and s h a l l o w s u b t i d a l h a b i t a t s , and may a l s o r e l e a s e m e t a l s i n t o t h e s u r r o u n d i n g w a t e r s . The c o n c e n t r a t e must be h a n d l e d and s h i p p e d by b o a t , which might r e s u l t i n s p i l l s or s h i p p i n g d i s a s t e r . F i n a l l y , t h e t a i l i n g s , which c o n t a i n m e t a l s and r e a g e n t s , a r e d e p o s i t e d a c r o s s the bottom of the i n l e t , or are suspended i n the water column. T a i l i n g s might t h e r e f o r e have a number of immediate e n v i r o n m e n t a l e f f e c t s i o b l i t e r a t i n g b e n t h i c (bottom) h a b i t a t s ; i n c r e a s i n g the t u r b i d i t y of v a r i o u s p a r t s of the water column; and r e l e a s i n g s o l u b l e m e t a l s i n t o s u r r o u n d i n g streams or i n t o the w a t e r s of the i n l e t s . S i t e d r a i n a g e , waste rock dumping, c o n c e n t r a t e h a n d l i n g and s h i p p i n g , and t a i l i n g s e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e form the f o u r major p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t . B. The P h y s i c a l S e t t i n g of R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t . U n d e r s t a n d i n g of the s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s t o be d i s c u s s e d i n the next s e c t i o n r e q u i r e s the r e a d e r t o be aware of the n a t u r e of the R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t e n v i r o n m e n t , and i n p a r t i c u l a r of i t s p e c u l i a r i t i e s . G o y e t t e and Nelson (1977) and Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981) have both p r o v i d e d o v e r v i e w s of t h e R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t e n v i r o n m e n t , which a r e the p r i m a r y s o u r c e s f o r the d e s c r i p t i o n below. The L o c a t i o n and Environment! Rupert I n l e t and H o l b e r g I n l e t form a connected f j o r d system l y i n g i n s i d e Q u a t s i n o Sound, from which t h e y are d i v i d e d by a 18 meter deep s i l l at Q u a t s i n o Narrows. The s i l l i s a s h a l l o w , (14) but s t i l l submerged, n a t u r a l dam s e p a r a t i n g t h e two b o d i e s of water. U n l i k e most B.C. f j o r d s , whose major r i v e r s run i n t o the head of t h e f j o r d , the M a r b l e R i v e r e n t e r s near t h i s s i l l , c a r r y i n g w i t h i t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50X of t h e t o t a l r u n o f f t o the i n l e t s ( D r i n k w a t e r 1973). T h i s r e s u l t s i n a r e l a t i v e l y l e s s s a l i n e wedge of f r e s h w a t e r b e i n g p r e s e n t o f f the s i l l t han i s t y p i c a l f o r o t h e r B r i t i s h Columbian (B.C.) i n l e t s . T a b l e 2.1 c h a r a c t e r i z e s t h e b a s i c p h y s i c a l p a r a m e t e r s of Rupert and H o l b e r g i n l e t s , and compares water volumes exchanged by t i d e s and f r e s h w a t e r i n f l o w . From t h i s i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t i d a l exchange of t h e water i n t h e i n l e t s i s much more s i g n i f i c a n t than t h a t i n d u c e d by the i n f l u e n c e of f r e s h w a t e r . T i d a l ranges at Coal Harbour i n H o l b e r g I n l e t average 2.8 m; 4.8 m i s t h e maximum. S u r f a c e t i d a l c u r r e n t s of over 3 m per second (7-7.5 k n o t s ) o c c u r i n Q u a t s i n o Narrows on t h e s e l a r g e r t i d a l changes. The s u r f a c e t u r b u l e n c e at t h e Narrows i s t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r a b l e , b u t , u n l i k e many c o a s t a l i n l e t s , t h i s t u r b u l e n c e i s under some c o n d i t i o n s extended deep i n t o the water column, r e s u l t i n g i n bottom c u r r e n t s whose v e l o c i t i e s o f t e n exceed t h a t of the s u r f a c e c u r r e n t s (Johnson 1974; S t u c c h i and Farmer 1976). Rupert and H o l b e r g i n l e t s e x h i b i t , on an annual a v e r a g e , l e s s v e r t i c a l s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of t e m p e r a t u r e , d i s s o l v e d oxygen, and s a l i n i t y than i s t y p i c a l of B.C. f j o r d s , however, they a l s o e x h i b i t g r e a t e r annual v a r i a t i o n than i s normal f o r t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s ( S t u c c h i and Farmer 1976). The l a c k of v e r t i c a l s t r a t i f i c a t i o n i n t h e s e parameters r e s u l t s from t h i s c o n s i d e r a b l e v e r t i c a l m i x i n g . U p w e l l i n g and b o i l s o f f Q u a t s i n o Narrows a r e v i s i b l e e v i d e n c e of t h i s v e r t i c a l t u r b u l e n c e . P r e c i p i t a t i o n i n the a r e a i s heavy ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2m/yr), c o n c e n t r a t e d over f a l l and w i n t e r , and i n c l u d e s s h o r t p e r i o d s of extreme r a i n f a l l . T h i s , a l o n g w i t h danger from e a r t h q u a k e , has been used t o argue a g a i n s t t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l on l a n d (Evans ejt a l _ 1979). (15) Table 2.1. Physical Parameters of Rupertr-Holberg Inlets, (Source: Stucchi and Farmer ]976). Rupert Inlet Holberg Inlet Length 10 km 34 km Mean Width 1.8 km 1.3 km Mean Mid-Inlet Depth.110 m 80 m Maximum Depth 165 m 170 m Volume 2.0xl0 9m 3 3.4xl0 9m 3 Freshwater inflow to g _ Rupert Holberg basin average 12x10 m /day 6 3 maximum 40x10 m /day 6 3 Tid a l prism average 170x10 m /day . 6 3 maximum 2 60x10 m /day ( 1 6 ) B i o l o g y : R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t and Q u a t s i n o narrows a r e u n u s u l l y r i c h i n both t h e d i v e r s i t y and abundance of marine s p e c i e s of f l o r a and fauna ( G o y e t t e and Nelson 1977:48; Waldichuk and Buchanan 1981:4), a p p a r e n t l y because of the l a c k of t h e extreme f l u c t u a t i o n s i n s a l i n i t y c o n c e n t r a t i o n s which i n many o t h e r i n l e t s cause i n t e r t i d a l and s u b t i d a l m o r t a l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s p r i n g r u n - o f f s (Buchanan 1982:256). N u t r i e n t c i r c u l a t i o n and h i g h oyxgen c o n c e n t r a t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t the water column a re a p p a r e n t l y o t h e r f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h i s system. Q u a t s i n o Narrows and the a r e a a d j a c e n t t o i t are p a r t i c u l a r l y p r o d u c t i v e . B e n t h i c a l g a e , p r e d o m i n a n t l y Fucus and L a m i n a r i a s p e c i e s , a r e v e r y common, as a r e fau n a such as r o c k f i s h , l i n g c o d , c r a b s , prawns, sea u r c h i n s , a b a l o n e , m u s s e l s , sea cucumbers, p o l y c h a e t e worms, and b i v a l v e s . The r i v e r s and streams of Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s s u p p o r t c o m m e r c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t salmon r u n s . Though the pres e n c e and abundance of t h e s e s p e c i e s can be d e s c r i b e d q u a l i t a t i v e l y , no comprehensive q u a n t i t a t i v e s t u d y of t h e a r e a ' s b i o l o g y has been p u b l i s h e d , nor have the f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s r e l a t i n g v a r i o u s elements of the I n l e t ' s ecosystem been c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y d e s c r i b e d . Though R u p e r t - H o i berg I n l e t s a r e b i o l o g i c a l l y p r o d u c t i v e , commercial u t i l i z a t i o n of r e l a t i v e l y s e s s i l e marine s p e c i e s i s l i m i t e d . Prawns and c r a b s s u p p o r t a s m a l l f i s h e r y of 1-2 man y r s / y r ; s h e l l f i s h and g r o u n d f i s h a re h a r v e s t e d f o r l o c a l consumption. The Marble R i v e r s u p p o r t s average annual escapements of over 26,000 f i s h i n c l u d i n g a l l P a c i f i c salmon s p e c i e s , as w e l l as s t e e l h e a d and c u t t h r o a t t r o u t , w h i l e streams i n Rupert I n l e t produce up t o 40,000 p i n k salmon i n a l t e r n a t e y e a r s and l B s s e r q u a n t i t i e s of o t h e r s p e c i e s . Both s a l t w a t e r and f r e s h w a t e r r e c r e a t i o n a l f i s h e r i e s depend on t h e s e s t o c k s , and t h e commercial h a r v e s t was v a l u e d at an average annual r a t e of $370,000 i n 1976 d o l l a r s (DF0 f i l e 5794-1-4). From t h i s i t can be seen t h a t a l t h o u g h (17) the commercial v a l u e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the i n l e t s ' marine l i f e a r e s m a l l compared t o t h e annual d o l l a r v a l u e of the mine, they a r e s i g n i f i c a n t , and, when c o n s i d e r e d w i t h t h e a s s o c i a t e d r e c r e a t i o n a l and e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a l u e s , j u s t i f y a c o n s i d e r a b l e i n v e s t m e n t i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n (Vermeer 1978). C. The S c i e n t i f i c I s s u e s . A number of complex and u n c e r t a i n s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s c h a r a c t e r i z e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment and management of t h e Utah c a s e . B a s e l i n e d a t a were e i t h e r poor or n o n - e x i s t e n t . Nor were t h e r e w e l l d e v e l o p e d t h e o r i e s e x p l a i n i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o c e s s e s of f j o r d s or the e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l . T h i s produced u n c e r t a i n t y over the q u e s t i o n s s c i e n t i s t s ought t o a d d r e s s . A l t h o u g h an i n t i m a t e u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the p a r t i c u l a r s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s which a r o s e over Utah's mine development a r e not c e n t r a l t o my t h e s i s , t h e y p r o v i d e a c o n t e x t w i t h i n which t o a n a l y z e the r o l e of s c i e n c e and s c i e n t i s t s . T h e r e f o r e t h e i s s u e s w i l l be d e s c r i b e d at t h i s p o i n t . 1. F j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n . T h i s was the e a r l i e s t s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e t o c l e a r l y emerge and the one i n which t h e i n i t i a l assessment p r o c e s s most o b v i o u s l y f a i l e d t o p r o v i d e a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s . The case o r i g i n a l l y made f o r u s i n g Rupert I n l e t as a d e p o s i t o r y f o r t a i l i n g s depended on: a. ) a p r e d i c t e d l o c a l i z e d d i s t r i b u t i o n of t a i l i n g s s e d i m e n t s which would not s u b s e q u e n t l y be s u b j e c t t o e r o s i o n ; and, b. ) a n o x i c c o n d i t i o n s at t h o s e l e v e l s i n the water column where d e p o s i t i o n would o c c u r (Moore 1973:80-82). Both of t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e d t h a t bottom c u r r e n t s be minimal and, as a ( 1 8 ) c o r o l l a r y , t h a t l i t t l e v e r t i c a l m i x i n g of seawater i n the i n l e t t a k e p l a c e , so t h a t d i s s o l v e d oxygen i n the lower l e v e l s of the water column would be d e p l e t e d t h r o u g h b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s and not be r e p l e n i s h e d . Utah Mines o r i g i n a l l y m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s e x i s t e d , c o n c e i v a b l y on t h e o r e t i c a l g r o u n d s , f o r the s h a l l o w s i l l i n Q u a t s i n o Narrows v e r t i c a l l y s e p a r a t e d Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s from Q u a t s i n o Sound (Utah B r i e f 1971). In such s i t u a t i o n s t h e e s t u a r i n e or t w o - l a y e r c i r c u l a t i o n model would p r e d i c t v e r t i c a l s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of the water column ( c f _ F i g u r e 2.3, t a k e n from Thompson 1981s 17). At t h e t i m e t h i s was t h e s t a n d a r d model of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n — i t was o n l y l a t e r t h a t o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s became g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d (0. S t u c c h i , p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) . T h i s s t a n d a r d model s e p a r a t e s a number of components of the water column. F l o a t i n g on the s u r f a c e i s a t h i n l a y e r of f r e s h , bouyant w a t e r , which i s c o n t i n u a l l y b e i n g r e p l e n i s h e d by o u t f l o w from r i v e r d i s c h a r g e . T h i s wedge of f r e s h water becomes i n c r e a s i n g s a l i n e as i t moves towards the open ocean t h r o u g h a p r o c e s s of e n t r a i n m e n t (the o c e a n o g r a p h e r s ' term f o r m i x i n g ) of u n d e r l y i n g s a l t i e r water. T h i s u n d e r l y i n g water must be r e p l a c e d , t h e r e f o r e t h e r e i s an i n f l o w at depth of s a l i n e ocean water. The depth at which t h i s o c e a n i c water o r i g i n a t e s i s d e t e r m i n e d by the depth of the s i l l . The c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n i s t h e r e f o r e c i r c u l a r , w i t h s u r f a c e water moving seaward, and deeper water moving i n t o the f j o r d . V e r t i c a l t u r b u l e n c e e x i s t s on the f j o r d s i d e of the s i l l , but does not p e n e t r a t e t o any g r e a t d e p t h . The f j o r d ' s water column i s h i g h l y s t r a t i f i e d , w i t h a l a y e r of i n f r e q u e n t l y r e c y c l e d c o l d e r , s a l t i e r , and a n o x i c water l y i n g a l o n g the bottom. T i d a l a c t i o n , though i t i n f l u e n c e s t h e exchange of water near t h e s u r f a c e of the (19) F i g u r e 2.3. The E s t u a r i n e C i r c u l a t i o n Model. (source: Thompson 1981) f i g u r e 2.4. A Schematic Model of F j o r d C i r c u l a t i o n on a Dense Flood T i d e . (20) water column, does not a f f e c t lower a n o x i c l e v e l s . Utah advanced t h i s s t a n d a r d model f o r R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t s , d rawing on d a t a p r o v i d e d by Dr. M. Waldichuk (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2), and on measurements of s a l i n i t y d a t a made on June 17, 1970 ( C a r t e r 1970, i n Utah 1970). B.C. Rese a r c h s u b s e q u e n t l y took c u r r e n t measurements i n two l o c a t i o n s over t h r e e days, and i n t e r p r e t e d t he r e s u l t s as a r e f u t a t i o n of the c o n t e n t i o n of no v e r t i c a l m i x i n g . However, Utah o b t a i n e d a second i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the same data from another c o n s u l t a n t who m a i n t a i n e d i t s u p p o r t e d Utah's p o s i t i o n ( l e t t e r from J.W. Johnson, c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r , t o Uta h , Utah 1970). Measurements were not r e p l i c a t e d , nor made over an extended p e r i o d of t i m e , nor r e l a t e d t o o c e a n o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s o t h e r than a s i n g l e t i d a l c y c l e . R e g a r d l e s s of t h e s e l i m i t a t i o n s , and i n t h e f a c e of c o n t r a d i c t o r y d a t a from e a r l i e r o c e a n o g r a p h i c s t u d i e s of the a r e a ( P i c k a r d 1962; Waldichuk 1968), doubts by both DFF and PCB s c i e n t i s t s (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2; PCB f i l e 026100-PE-379), and e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d at t h e p u b l i c h e a r i n g (Lucas and Moore 1973), t h e d e c i s i o n t o i s s u e a p e r m i t was made. No documents e x i s t t o d e t e r m i n e whether the D i r e c t o r of t h e PCB a c c e p t e d Utah's p o s i t i o n on c i r c u l a t i o n , or d e c i d e d i n f a v o r of g r a n t i n g the p e r m i t f o r o t h e r r e a s o n s (Lucas and Moore C19733 quote the then p r o v i n c i a l M i n i s t e r of Lands, F o r e s t s , and Water Res o u r c e s as e x p r e s s i n g c o n c e r n about the p r e s s u r e s t o g r a n t the p e r m i t which r e s u l t e d from p r i o r c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t at t h e s i t e ) . P r e - o p e r a t i o n a l b a s e l i n e s t u d i e s done s u b s e q u e n t l y p r o v i d e d d a t a which would have made Utah's p o s i t i o n on f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n u n t e n a b l e i f t h e d a t a had been i n t e r p r e t e d (Moore 1973s 179-180). Subsequent t h e s i s work by Moore (1973), D r i n k w a t e r (1973), and Johnson (1974) demonstrated t h a t v e r t i c a l m i x i n g o c c u r r e d , d i s s o l v e d oxygen ( 2 1 ) c o n c e n t r a t i o n s remained h i g h t h r o u g h o u t the water column, and bottom c u r r e n t s were r e g u l a r l y p r e s e n t and of h i g h v e l o c i t y (3m per s e c o n d ) . S t u c c h i and Farmer (1976) s u b s e q u e n t l y r e f i n e d a n o t h e r , more complex, model of ' s i l l y ' f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n . T h i s model i d e n t i f i e d the d e n s i t y of t h e i n f l o w i n g t i d a l p r i s m from Q u a t s i n o Sound ( i t s e l f dependent on u p w e l l i n g ) , the geometry of the Narrows, and the e x i s t i n g s t a t e of the d e n s i t y of t h e water column of R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t s (a f u n c t i o n of both r u n - o f f r a t e s and r e c e n t t i d a l exchange e v e n t s ) as t h e c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s c o n t r o l l i n g c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s . In a d d i t i o n the amount of suspended p a r t i c u l a t e s were a l s o c o n s i d e r e d as a p o s s i b l e i n f l u e n c e on the d e n s i t y of the water column, and t h u s on the b e h a v i o r of t h e f l o o d i n g t i d a l p r i s m . When th e f l o o d i n g t i d e was n e g a t i v e l y bouyant ( i e . , more s a l i n e ) than the w a ters of the i n l e t s , t h e m "The i n c o m i n g j e t of denser Q u a t s i n o Sound s u r f a c e water f l o w s down the s i d e of R u p e r t - H o l b e r g b a s i n t o the bottom, e n t r a i n i n g r e s i d e n t water i n t o the f l o w as i t p r o c e e d s . A p o r t i o n of t h i s bottom f l o w i s d e f l e c t e d upwards by Han k i n P o i n t and f u r t h e r m i x i n g w i t h t h e s u r r o u n d i n g w a t e r s o c c u r s . The r e m a i n i n g p o r t i o n of the f l o w i s d i v e r t e d l a t e r a l l y a l o n g t h e b a s i n bottom, d i s p l a c i n g the l e s s dense waters upwards. H o r i z o n t a l d e n s i t y g r a d i e n t s c r e a t e d by the i n p u t of denser water at depth t r a n s p o r t s a l t towards the head of Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s away from the a c t i v e r e g i o n . As a r e s u l t , the t e m p e r a t u r e and s a l i n i t y f l u c t u a t i o n s of the deep waters resemble t h o s e of the i n c o m i n g water. At h i g h e r l e v e l s i n t h e water column the t e m p e r a t u r e and s a l i n i t y f l u c t u a t i o n s a re not as c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e i n c o m i n g water. On t h e o u t g o i n g t i d e t h e l e s s dense s u r f a c e waters a r e drawn out t h r o u g h the Narrows. Thus, as the s a l t i n p u t p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s , the o v e r a l l d e n s i t y of t h e water column i n c r e a s e s " ( S t u c c h i and Farmer 1976). In s i t u a t i o n s where the bouyancy of the f l o o d i n g t i d a l p r i s m i s n e u t r a l or p o s i t i v e , v e r t i c a l exchange i s e i t h e r r e s t r i c t e d t o the s u r f a c e or l e s s v i o l e n t than d e s c r i b e d above. Deep water exchange o c c u r s p r e d o m i n a n t l y i n the s p r i n g and summer, when p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s low and u p w e l l i n g i n c r e a s e s t h e d e n s i t y of Q u a t s i n o Sound w a t e r s (see F i g u r e 2.4 f o r a d i a g r a m m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h i s p r o c e s s , and compare i t t o F i g u r e 2.3); i n t h e w i n t e r and f a l l t he l a c k of u p w e l l i n g and h i g h r u n - o f f i n t o Q u a t s i n o Sound r e s u l t s (22) i n r e s t r i c t e d deep water exchange. As can be seen from t h i s r e f i n e d model, f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s a re c o n s i d e r a b l y more complex than was at f i r s t a p p r e c i a t e d . Though anomalous d a t a e x i s t e d p r i o r t o a d e c i s i o n b e i n g made t o a l l o w submarine d i s p o s a l , no c l e a r e x p l a n a t i o n e x i s t e d f o r t h e s e a n o m a l i e s . As many o t h e r of t h e s c i e n t i f i c q u e s t i o n s s u r r o u n d i n g marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l r e q u i r e d an a c c u r a t e c i r c u l a t i o n model t o be u n d e r s t o o d , t h i s f a i l u r e t o d e v e l o p an e x p l a n a t i o n had i m p o r t a n t consequences f o r r e s o l v i n g t h e s e o t h e r i s s u e s . 2« The t o x i c i t y of t r a c e m e t a l s . T h i s i s s u e emerged c o n c u r r e n t l y w i t h f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n — i n i t i a l l y OFF s u p p o r t e d underwater d i s p o s a l as a r e s u l t of i t s presumed e f f i c a c y i n p r e v e n t i n g the l e a c h i n g of t h e s e t o x i c s from t a i l i n g s . The need f o r a n o x i c c o n d i t i o n s r e f e r r e d t o by Moore i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n was q u i c k l y d r o p p e d — a p p a r e n t l y oxygen c o n c e n t r a t i o n s were r a p i d l y p e r c e i v e d by DFF s t a f f as not b e i n g p e r t i n e n t t o the t o x i c i t y of m e t a l s i n marine e n v i r o n m e n t s (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2). Other i s s u e s l e s s r e a d i l y d i s a p p e a r e d , however. The i s s u e of t o x i c i t y was i t s e l f a complex one. F i r s t , how t o x i c were the t a i l i n g s t h e m s e l v e s , i n the absence of any b i o l o g i c a l or geochemical p r o c e s s e s o p e r a t i n g on them? Acute t o x i c i t y would have u s u a l l y been answered by a s t a n d a r d f i s h b i o a s s a y (known as an LC 50 t e s t ) . T h i s would i d e n t i f y t he c o n c e n t r a t i o n s at which o n e - h a l f of a t e s t p o p u l a t i o n of coho would d i e over 96 hours of exposure t o the e f f l u e n t s o l u t i o n . As a s a f e t y f a c t o r , the p e r m i s s a b l e c o n c e n t r a t i o n would be s e t at some f r a c t i o n of t h i s LC 50 (see Moore's £1973] d i s c u s s i o n ) . T h i s s t a n d a r d p r o c e d u r e was not used t o s e t the metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n l e v e l s of t h e p e r m i t as i s s u e d . I n s t e a d , t h e coho were (23) exposed t o o n l y t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s w h i c h , as a r e s u l t of bench t e s t s , were e x p e c t e d from the t a i l i n g s d i s c h a r g e . There was no m o r t a l i t y over the 96 hour p e r i o d and t h e r e f o r e t h e p r e d i c t e d c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of m e t a l s were then adopted as the p e r m i s s a b l e l i m i t s . However the c o n c e n t r a t i o n which r e s u l t e d i n 50X m o r t a l i t y might have been o n l y s l i g h t l y h i g h e r , depending on the par a m e t e r s of the d o s e - r e s p o n s e r e l a t i o n s h i p . In t h i s case the p e r m i t t e d c o n c e n t r a t i o n s would be h i g h e r than would n o r m a l l y r e s u l t from t h e s t a n d a r d LC50 t e s t (Lucas and Moore 1973s59). The common s a f e t y f a c t o r was t h e r e f o r e not i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the maximum c o n c e n t r a t i o n s as they were e s t a b l i s h e d . Though t h i s i s s u e was prominent e a r l y i n the d i s p u t e (cf_ Lucas and Moore 1973), i t i s now g e n e r a l l y agreed t h a t the t a i l i n g s a r e not i m m e d i a t e l y t o x i c (see t h e l a c k of d i s c u s s i o n of a c u t e t o x i c i t y i n G o y e t t e and N e l s o n C1977], and a l s o Waldichuk and Buchanan [19811). The ongoing b i o a s s a y s of e f f l u e n t have proved e f f e c t i v e i n i n d i c a t i n g t o x i c i t y f o r i n the one case where a change i n a r e a g e n t r e s u l t e d i n m o r t a l i t i e s , t h e r e a g e n t was p r o m p t l y dropped from use ( P e l l e t i e r 1982:213). No b i o a s s a y s of o t h e r organisms were done, and i n p a r t i c u l a r no t e s t s of i n v e r t e b r a t e i n f a u n a r e s i d e n t i n t a i l i n g s were conducted. Second, t h i s s t a n d a r d t o x i c i t y t e s t f a i l e d t o c o n s i d e r the p r o s p e c t of l o n g - t e r m s u b - l e t h a l e f f e c t s of the t r a c e m e t a l s i n t a i l i n g s ( f o o t n o t e : Ward 1978:120-125 d i s c u s s e s t h i s f a i l i n g of LC 50 t e s t s and p o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n s ) - -though f i s h used i n t h e o r i g i n a l b i o a s s a y s were examined f o r i n d i c a t i o n s of s u b l e t h a l e f f e c t s such as eye damage or l o s s of g i l l f u n c t i o n (OFF f i l e 34-3-R2), no e x p e r i m e n t s or f i e l d s t u d i e s o t h e r than t h e m o n i t o r i n g of metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n f i s h and i n v e r t e b r a t e t i s s u e s were d e s i g n e d t o d e t e r m i n e whether t h e s e e f f e c t s e x i s t e d . (24) T h i r d , t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r b i o - m a g n i f i c a t i o n of t o x i c m e t a l s as t h e y were c o n c e n t r a t e d t h r o u g h i n c r e a s i n g l y h i g h e r l e v e l s of the f o o d c h a i n was u n c o n s i d e r e d by the p r o p o n e n t ' s p r e - c o n s t r u c t i o n s t u d i e s , a l t h o u g h both t h e SPEC o b j e c t i o n and t h a t of f o u r UBC s c i e n t i s t s (quoted i n Moore C1973:71-72]) r a i s e d t h i s i s s u e . A l t h o u g h the UBC m o n i t o r i n g program d i d measure metal l e v e l s i n a number of organisms (see Table 3.1, Chapter 3 ) , and t h e metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s have not been h i g h (Evans et aj_ 1979), both G o y e t t e and Nelson (1977) and Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981) r e v i v e d t h i s i s s u e . Waldichuk and Buchanan recommended m o n i t o r i n g of a s t a n d a r d o r g a n i s m , M y t i l i s e d u l i s , under v a r y i n g degrees of e f f l u e n t e x p o s u r e . Recent s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e no extreme b i o - m a g n i f i c a t i o n i n p a r t because the d i f f u s e f ood c h a i n s t y p i c a l of t h e s e i n l e t s p r e c l u d e e x t e n s i v e b i o - m a g n i f i c a t i o n ( H a r d i n g 1983). F o u r t h , t h e p o t e n t i a l e x t e n t of t h e b i o l o g i c a l l e a c h i n g of m e t a l s i n t o forms which were b i o - a v a i l a b l e ( i e . , s o l u b l e ) , and p a r t i c u l a r l y the d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e s e p r o c e s s e s as they o p e r a t e d i n f r e s h w a t e r and marine e n v i r o n m e n t s , was a l s o d i s p u t e d from the i n c e p t i o n of t h e development (Lucas and Moore 1973). B i o l o g i c a l l e a c h i n g of t r a c e m e t a l s r e q u i r e s t h a t a number of c o n d i t i o n s be p r e s e n t — low pH, oxygen, w a t e r , and c h e m o - a u t o t r o p h i c b a c t e r i a ( e g . , T h i o b a c i l l u s s p e c i e s ) (MoorB 1 9 7 3 ) — and t h a t t h e ore be c h e m i c a l l y s u s c e p t i b l e t o such l e a c h i n g ( t h i s o v e r s i m p l i f i e s the v a r i a b l e s which a f f e c t b i o l o g i c a l l e a c h i n g — but t h e s e were t h e v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d d u r i n g t h e Utah a s s e s s m e n t ) . P o l i n g (1982:71-72) d i s c u s s e s t h e m i n e r a l o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of mine t a i l i n g s and the v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t i n g t h e i r s o l u b i l i t y . I t was the b e l i e f t h a t t h e t a i l i n g s at ICM were b i o l o g i c a l l y l e a c h a b l e which s t r o n g l y i n c l i n e d DFF towards marine d i s p o s a l (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2). T h i s c o n c l u s i o n was based on t e s t s done by B.C. Research (Utah 1970), and i t e f f e c t i v e l y p r e c l u d e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n of o n - l a n d d i s p o s a l (the a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s used t o d e t e r m i n e b i o a v a i l a b i l i t y of m e t a l s were, i n the l a t e 1960's, o f t e n not r e l i a b l e CK. H a l l , p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ] ) . When t h e E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e [EPS] of Environment Canada r e p l i c a t e d t h e s e t e s t s i n the mid-1970's, i t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t the t a i l i n g s were not b i o l o g i c a l l y l e a c h a b l e . F i n a l l y , the p o s s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s e s i n the l o n g - t e r m b i o - a v a i l a b i l i t y of metal i o n s t h r o u g h the p r o c e s s of d i a g e n e s i s o n l y emerged as an i s s u e l a t e i n the c a s e ' s h i s t o r y (Waldichuk and Buchanan 1981). D i a g e n e s i s (the r e l e a s e of metal i o n s from t h e p a r t i c l e s u r f a c e t o which they a r e bound) o c c u r s under a n o x i c c o n d i t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e c r e a t e d by o r g a n i c d e c o m p o s i t i o n i n s e d i m e n t s . Waldichuk and Buchanan i n c l u d e d recommendations f o r both f i e l d s t u d i e s and l a b e x p e r i m e n t s t o a d d r e s s t h i s i s s u e <1981i24). I t i s apparent t h a t some of the i s s u e s d i s c u s s e d above have been r e s o l v e d t o the s a t i s f a c t i o n of the s c i e n t i s t s i n v o l v e d : the a p p l i c a t i o n of b i o a s s a y s and the f a c t o r s c o n t r o l l i n g t h e immediate t o x i c i t y of m e t a l s a r e examples. Other i s s u e s , such as b i o - a v a i l a b i l i t y and b i o m a g n i f i c a t i o n , and o t h e r s u b - l e t h a l e f f e c t s , remain o n l y i n p a r t answered. A consensus over the t h r e a t posed by d i a g e n e s i s has yet t o emerge. The e n t i r e i s s u e o f the t o x i c i t y of m B t a l s i n the sea has r e c e n t l y been q u e s t i o n e d . Bascom (1983) and Young and E l l i s (1982) have both s u g g e s t e d t h a t the t o x i c i t y o f m e t a l s i n marine e n v i r o n m e n t s has been c o n s i d e r a b l y o v e r - e s t i m a t e d . 3. B e n t h i c s m o t h e r i n g . Benthos a r e t h o s e a n i m a l s and p l a n t s l i v i n g i n o r on t h e bottom of the i n l e t . B e n t h i c i n f a u n a a r e t y p i c a l l y i n v e r t e b r a t e s l i v i n g i n bottom s e d i m e n t s ; e p i b e n t i c fauna a r e r e l a t i v e l y m o b i l e s p e c i e s l i v i n g on o r (26) i m m e d i a t e l y over t h e bottom. B e n t h i c s m o t h e r i n g , and the d e s t r u c t i o n of s e s s i l e s p e c i e s , would o b v i o u s l y o c c u r where a l a r g e a r e a of the i n l e t was p r e d i c t e d t o be f i l l e d by t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t s (see F i g u r e 3.5), and t h i s impact was r e c o g n i z e d from the b e g i n n i n g (B.C. Research 1970; DFF f i l e 34-3-R2). G o y e t t e and N e l s o n (1977) have s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h i s i s the main, and a l a r g e l y u n a p p r e c i a t e d , i m p a c t . Three i s s u e s are i n v o l v e d h e r e . The f i r s t was the a r e a l and v e r t i c a l e x t e n t of t h i s s m o t h e r i n g . T h i s depended on t h e b e h a v i o r of t h e t a i l i n g s d e n s i t y c u r r e n t , and on f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s . E a r l y p r e d i c t i o n s s u g g e s t e d the d e p o s i t i o n would o c c u r o n l y below 100 m, and t h a t i t would be c o n t a i n e d p r e d o m i n a n t l y w i t h i n Rupert I n l e t (Utah 1970). Due t o the f a i l u r e t o a c c u r a t e l y d e s c r i b e and e x p l a i n f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n , t h e s e p r e d i c t i o n s proved i n c o r r e c t . T a i l i n g s have been d i s t r i b u t e d a r e a l l y t h r o u g h o u t the R u p e r t - H o l b e r g system and i n t o Q u a t s i n o Sound; 50 tonnes per day have been p r e d i c t e d t o pass out t h r o u g h Q u a t s i n o Narrows; and i n t e r t i d a l and s u b t i d a l t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t i o n o c c u r s at Han k i n P o i n t ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977; Waldichuk and Buchanan 1981). A f u r t h e r i s s u e c o n c e r n s whether the deep benthos ( t h a t i s , t h o s e r e s i d i n g below t h e p h o t o - t r o p h i c zone) i n Rupert I n l e t were a s i g n i f i c a n t element of e c o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s . Q u e s t i o n s were r a i s e d over the d i v e r s i t y and number of b e n t h i c o r g a n i s m s , and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o n e k t o n i c elements of the food c h a i n i n the I n l e t , and over the r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n of b e n t h i c p l a n t s t o p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i v i t y . T.W. Beak's o r i g i n a l b i o l o g i c a l s u r v e y i n d i c a t e d s m a l l animal p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h i n Rupert I n l e t , which were dominated by p o l y c h a e t e worms (Utah 1970). Moore (1973i102-103) q u e s t i o n e d t h e s e r e s u l t s , based on f a i l u r e Figure 2.5. T a i l i n g s D i s t r i b u t i o n i n May-June 1974. (source: Goyette and Nelson 19/7) (28) t o sample at depths of l e s s than 3 0 m, and f a i l u r e t o c o l l e c t e p i b e n t h i c s p e c i e s . Both of t h e s e c r i t i c i s m s were echoed by G o y e t t e and Nelson (1977), whose s u b m e r s i b l e o b s e r v a t i o n s and b e n t h i c t r a w l s i n d i c a t e d a c o n s i d e r a b l y more d i v e r s e and abundant deep b e n t h i c community, and who noted s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s of s e d i m e n t a t i o n i n the s h a l l o w s u b t i d a l and i n t e r t i d a l zones. Foreman (1 9 7 6 ) , i n h i s s t u d y of n e a r s h o r e b e n t h i c c o m m u n i t i e s , produced e v i d e n c e on the i n t e r t i d a l and s h a l l o w s u b t i d a l e f f e c t s of s e d i m e n t a t i o n which he i n t e r p r e t e d as ambiguous and t e n t a t i v e — i t was i n h i s o p i n i o n u n c e r t a i n whether d i f f e r e n c e s between s t a t i o n s were the p r o d u c t of s u c c e s s i o n a l change or mine i n d u c e d i m p a c t s . The m o n i t o r i n g program as o r i g i n a l l y e n v i s a g e d d i d not i n c l u d e a b e n t h i c s p e c i a l i s t — one was added i n the second year of mine o p e r a t i o n s ( E l l i s 1974). The m o n i t o r i n g program d i d not c o n t a i n components which c o u l d i d e n t i f y the e c o l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s t y i n g b e n t h i c communities d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y t o o t h e r e lements of the b i o t a — s t u d i e s such as q u a n t i t a t i v e stomach c o n t e n t a n a l y s e s of b e n t h i c p r e d a t o r s . In a d d i t i o n , G o y e t t e and N e l s o n c o n c l u d e d t h a t " c o n c l u s i o n s drawn from t h e company's benthos program have been a p p l i e d t o t h e t o t a l b e n t h i c community, when, i n f a c t , they are o n l y a p p l i c a b l e t o s p e c i e s of i n f a u n a c o l l e c t e d i n grab samples" (1977:67). Waldichuk and Buchanan were i n 1981 s t i l l a b l e t o i n d i c a t e t h a t the e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t i o n on s h a l l o w b e n t h i c o rganisms and on r o o t e d macrophytes and o t h e r b e n t h i c a l g a e were unknown, and recommended a r e s e a r c h program t o r e s o l v e t h e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s . Some r e c o l o n i z a t i o n of d i s t u r b e d and a l t e r e d b e n t h i c h a b i t a t s has been agreed t o o c c u r by a l l , but i n t e r p r e t e d v e r y d i f f e r e n t l y . Evans et^ al_ (1979) and Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981) have noted t h i s r e c o l o n i z a t i o n and have taken i t as i n d i c a t i v e of s u c c e s s f u l r e h a b i l i t a t i o n . G o y e t t e and N e l s o n (1977:68), w h i l e a g r e e i n g some r e c o l o n i z a t i o n has o c c u r r e d , s u g g e s t , based on (29) t h e i r o b s e r v a t i o n s of the marine t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t s from abandoned mines, t h a t the subsequent communities a r e l e s s d i v e r s e and p r o d u c t i v e , and t h a t the f i n a l h a b i t a t i s by i t s n a t u r e l e s s p r o d u c t i v e than the c o a r s e or r o c k y s u b s t r a t e i t r e p l a c e d . F i n a l l y , the a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i q u e s f o r s a m p l i n g b e n t h i c o r g a n i s m s and t h e c o n t r o l of s a m p l i n g b i a s a l s o emerged as c o n t r o v e r s i a l i s s u e s . The I s l a n d Copper Mine bases i t s c o n c l u s i o n s on Ponar grabs of i n f a u n a l s p e c i e s ; w h i l e EPS s t a f f i n s i s t t h a t e p i b e n t h i c s a m p l i n g must a l s o occur (Jones 1974; G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977167). I t i s i n d i c a t i v e of the c u r r e n t s t a t e of knowledge about the e c o l o g y of t h e s e b e n t h i c communities t h a t e f f e c t s on them a r e o n l y t r e a t e d t a n g e n t i a l l y i n M a r ine T a i l i n g s Today, d e s p i t e i t s e d i t o r b e i n g a b e n t h i c e c o l o g i s t ( E l l i s ed. 1982). In f a c t the volume has o n l y f o u r pages s p e c i f i c a l l y d i r e c t e d t o b i o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s , and t h e s e r e f e r o n l y t o b i o a c c u m u l a t i o n and b i o m a g n i f i c a t i o n of t o x i c m e t a l s . The l a c k of knowledge r e g a r d i n g b e n t h i c e c o l o g y would appear t o be a r e s u l t of the c o m p l e x i t y of t h e s e ecosystem p r o c e s s e s and of t h e v a r i a b i l i t y of t h e i r s p a t i a l and temporal d i s t r i b u t i o n ( M i l l a r d 1984). Benthos have been i n a c c e s s i b l e , and t h e v a r i a b i l i t y has r e q u i r e d c o n s i d e r a b l e s a m p l i n g e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e they have been l i t t l e s t u d i e d . 4. The e f f e c t of t u r b i d i t y on b i o l o g i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y . S u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y was one of t h e e f f e c t s i n c o r r e c t l y p r e d i c t e d , due t o the f a i l u r e t o u n d e r s t a n d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s . In p a r t i c u l a r , t u r b i d i t y was not e x p e c t e d i n the e u p h o t i c zone. T h i s i s s u e was r a i s e d e a r l y i n the Utah assessment p r o c e s s , both i n t h e b r i e f by t h e f o u r UBC s c i e n t i s t s and (30) d u r i n g t h e p u b l i c h e a r i n g (Moore 1973). I t provoked c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n amongst DFF s t a f f , l a r g e l y because t h e i r c o n c e r n s c o u l d not be a u t h o r i t a t i v e l y documented (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2). The i s s u e r e o c c u r r e d s p e c u l a t i v e l y i n G o y e t t e and N elson (1977:19) and i n Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981:12-13). The m o n i t o r i n g program as o r i g i n a l l y c o n c e i v e d made no p r o v i s i o n t o c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y examine t h i s i s s u e (see T a b l e 3.1). T h i s i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e ; t h e d e f i n i t i o n and measurement of f a c t o r s which a f f e c t b i o l o g i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y are d i f f i c u l t and e x p e n s i v e , and o f t e n r e q u i r e complex s t u d i e s of the e n e r g e t i c s of ecosystems (Ward 1978:31-47). The i s s u e s r a i s e d by the above a u t h o r s i n c l u d e d : a. ) t h e e f f e c t s of t u r b i d i t y on d e c r e a s i n g p h o t o s y n t h e t i c a c t i v i t y by p h y t o p l a n k t o n , though i f t u r b i d i t y s c a t t e r s l i g h t r a t h e r than a t t e n u a t i n g i t (and t o do t h i s i t must be h i g h l y r e f l e c t i v e ) t h i s may not o c c u r ; b. ) the b i n d i n g of o r g a n i c p a r t i c l e s t o the suspended t a i l i n g s l e a v i n g them u n a v a i l a b l e f o r f i l t e r f e e d e r s (Waldichuk and Buchanan 1981:13); and, c. ) the d e c r e a s i n g e f f i c i e n c y of f i l t e r f e e d e r s who have t o s o r t a d e c r e a s i n g r a t i o of o r g a n i c t o i n o r g a n i c p a r t i c l e s (Jones 1974). S u l l i v a n (1979) has s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e r e has been no measurable s h o r t - t e r m d e c l i n e i n the p r o d u c t i v i t y of p h y t o p l a n k t o n , and t h i s c o n c l u s i o n i s s u p p o r t e d by r e s u l t s of the company's p h y t o p l a n k t o n program (Utah 1983). The most o b v i o u s c o n c l u s i o n from both s t u d i e s i s t h a t p l a n k t o n abundance v a r i e s g r e a t l y . E f f e c t s such as changes i n the s p e c i e s mix of p h y t o p l a n k t o n i n r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s i n g t u r b i d i t y , w i t h the p o t e n t i a l t h a t the new mix i s l e s s u t i l i z a b l e by z o o p l a n k t o n g r a z e r s , were l e f t u n c o n s i d e r e d i n the r e p o r t s t o d a t e (K. H a l l , p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) . Changes i n t h e p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i v i t y of b e n t h i c p l a n t s has been i n s u f f i c i e n t l y s t u d i e d t o p r o v i d e any c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e of i m p a c t s . The above q u e s t i o n s remain l a r g e l y u n r e s o l v e d . ( 3 1 ) 5. The a f f e c t of waste rock dumping on j u v e n i l e salmon i d s . T h i s i s s u e d i d not emerge d u r i n g t h e agency r e v i e w of the e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e a p p l i c a t i o n , nor d u r i n g the p u b l i c h e a r i n g . There were two causes of t h i s : f i r s t , t h e PCB's mandate o n l y i n c l u d e d r e v i e w of e f f l u e n t , e m i s s i o n s , or s o l i d w a s t e s , which a p p a r e n t l y e x c l u d e d r o c k , and, second, the dependence of j u v e n i l e salmon on e s t u a r i e s was not w e l l u n d e r s t o o d at the time (Healey 1982). A g a i n , Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981:8) were t h e f i r s t t o r a i s e t h i s i s s u e i n p r i n t . T h e i r c o n c e r n was t h a t waste rock might be c o v e r i n g h a b i t a t c r i t i c a l t o the j u v e n i l e s u r v i v a l r a t e s of the l o c a l salmon r u n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t of the Marble R i v e r . However, t h e y c o l l e c t e d no d a t a on the use of t h i s a r e a by s a l m o n i d s . Some work has been done s u b s e q u e n t l y but i t has not been p u b l i s h e d <D. G o y e t t e , p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) . 6. The e f f e c t of t u r b i d i t y on a d u l t s a l m o n i d m i g r a t i o n . T h i s was f i r s t r a i s e d by E l l i s (1976) i n a l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w , and was r e s u r r e c t e d by Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981:22), who sug g e s t e d t h a t f i e l d r e s e a r c h was r e q u i r e d t o a s s e s s t h i s B f fec t . The l a c k of any s t u d i e s of t h e e f f e c t of t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l on s a l m o n i d s i s a n o t a b l e f e a t u r e of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program, g i v e n t h e i r commercial i m p o r t a n c e . 7. The d e s i g n of the m o n i t o r i n g program. T h i s i n v o l v e d , u n l i k e the p r e v i o u s s u b s t a n t i v e i s s u e s , a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l d i s p u t e . On one hand i t conc e r n e d the a p p r o p r i a t e q u e s t i o n s which the m o n i t o r i n g program ought t o a d d r e s s , and on the o t h e r what a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s and s a m p l i n g methods were a p p r o p r i a t e t o r e s o l v i n g t h e s e q u e s t i o n s . Examples of t h e second s o r t i n c l u d e : a.) f a i l u r e s t o r e p l i c a t e s a m p l i n g s u f f i c i e n t l y o f t e n t o i d e n t i f y t he e x t e n t of n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y ; b. ) b i a s i n the measurement t e c h n i q u e s used, such as f a i l u r e t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between n e k t o n i c p l a n k t o n caught d u r i n g t h e d e s c e n t of a Ponar grab sample, and the b e n t h i c o rganisms t h e y were meant t o sample (Jones 1974); and, c. ) f a i l u r e s t o sample c r i t i c a l e lements of the eco-system such as the e p i b e n t h i c f a u n a , a f a i l u r e which y i e l d e d an a p p a r e n t l y l e s s d i v e r s e and p r o d u c t i v e b e n t h i c community than i n f a c t e x i s t e d ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977:67). In terms of the l a r g e r i s s u e s of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , f a i l u r e s were i d e n t i f i e d i n : a. ) not d e t e r m i n i n g i n advance the v a r i a b l e s c r i t i c a l t o a b i o - p h y s i c a l m o n i t o r i n g program which would r e s o l v e t h e s p e c i f i c i s s u e s l i s t e d above; b. ) an o v e r - e m p h a s i s on c h e m i c a l and p h y s i c a l problems (Moore 1973:115-116; G o y e t t e and Nelson 1977); and, c. ) f a i l u r e t o f o c u s the b i o l o g i c a l m o n i t o r i n g on s p e c i e s of commercial v a l u e or on components of t h e eco-system which were c r i t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t t o commercial s p e c i e s (Waldichuk and Buchanan 1981:21). D. C o n c l u s i o n s . T h i s c h a p t e r documents t h a t s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s a r o s e , and t h a t though some were s e t t l e d , o t h e r s remained u n r e s o l v e d and the s u b j e c t of c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n f l i c t . These c o n f l i c t s p e r s i s t e d d e s p i t e the c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s o u r c e s which at v a r i o u s s t a g e s have been m o b i l i z e d by government d e p a r t m e n t s , independent s c i e n t i s t s , and t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t groups i n v o l v e d . In p a r t i c u l a r , the r e s o u r c e s expended on r e s e a r c h by a l l p a r t i e s have been e x t e n s i v e , and have f r e q u e n t l y not l e d t o any f i n a l and a u t h o r i t a t i v e c o n c l u s i o n of t h e s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s . I t has become apparent t h r o u g h t h i s a n a l y s i s t h a t t h e s e s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s can be c h a r a c t e r i z e d as complex and u n c e r t a i n , and t h a t o n l y i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y e f f o r t s can r e s o l v e them. In the next c h a p t e r I show t h a t , a l t h o u g h c o n f l i c t s over v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s permeated the p o s i t i o n s of v a r i o u s s c i e n t i f i c p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the case s t u d y , the s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s became a major f o c u s of the c o n t r o v e r s y which d e v e l o p e d . To a g r e a t e x t e n t , t h e v a l u e and i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t s were submerged i n , and e x p r e s s e d t h r o u g h , t h e c o n f l i c t over s c i e n t i f i c p roblems. CHAPTER 3 THE UTAH CASE: CHRONOLOGY The e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment and management of t h e I s l a n d Copper Mine have extended over a s i x t e e n year p e r i o d . T h i s p r o c e s s can be d i v i d e d i n t o two p h a s e s , a p r e - p e r m i t t i n g assessment phase, and a management phase which i n c l u d e d an e n v i r o n m e n t a l m o n i t o r i n g program and i n d u s t r y and government agency r e s p o n s e s t o i t s f i n d i n g s . B e f o r e d i s c u s s i n g t h e s e phases, I s h a l l f i r s t c l a r i f y t he mandates of t h e key government a g e n c i e s . The P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Branch of the P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia (PCB) was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i s s u i n g t he p e r m i t which a l l o w e d t a i l i n g s e f f l u e n t d i s p o s a l . T h i s b r a n c h , and i t s s u c c e s s o r , t h e Waste Management Branch (WMB), were r e s p o n s i b l e under the p r o v i n c e ' s P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Act (1967) ( l a t e r t he Waste Management A c t ) f o r the c o n t r o l of t h e d i s c h a r g e of e f f l u e n t , s o l i d waste, or e m i s s i o n s t h r o u g h the i s s u a n c e of p e r m i t s (see B a r t o n et a l 1984 f o r a d e s c r i p t i o n of t h i s p r o c e s s , and i t s r e c e n t r e p l a c e m e n t ) . A p p l i c a t i o n s were r e v i e w e d and a s s e s s e d by PCB s t a f f p r i o r t o t h e i s s u a n c e of any p e r m i t , and p r o p o s a l s were r e f e r r e d t o f o u r p r o v i n c i a l a g e n c i e s (none of whom p l a y e d a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n t h e Utah case) and a f e d e r a l agency f o r t h e i r c o n s i d e r a t i o n and comment. P u b l i c i n v o l v e m e n t was a l l o w e d t h r o u g h s u b m i s s i o n of w r i t t e n o b j e c t i o n s w i t h i n a p e r i o d of 30 da y s , and, i n t h e event the D i r e c t o r of the Branch (who had wide d i s c r e t i o n a r y powers) f e l t i t a p p r o p r i a t e , a p u b l i c h e a r i n g might be h e l d . Such p u b l i c h e a r i n g s were uncommon. P e r m i t s were i s s u e d accompanied by a l e t t e r of t r a n s m i t t a l , which c l a r i f i e d t h e c o n d i t i o n s under which d i s c h a r g e would be a l l o w e d . Changes i n the s e c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e d an a p p l i c a t i o n f o r a p e r m i t amendment. Such amendment a p p l i c a t i o n s i n i t i a t e d a f u r t h e r round of the r e f e r r a l p r o c e s s , and ( 3 5 ) i n t h e Utah case a l l o w e d p e r i o d i c , though somewhat f o r t u i t o u s , r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the o r i g i n a l terms of the p e r m i t . The o t h e r agency h a v i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e s t a t u t o r y a u t h o r i t y over e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e was the f e d e r a l Department of F i s h e r i e s and F o r e s t r y (DFF), l a t e r (1971) the F i s h e r i e s S e r v i c e of the Department of the Environment ( F S ) , and l a t e r yet the Department of F i s h e r i e s and Ocean (DFO). The E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e of Environment Canada (EPS) became, a f t e r 1971, the c o o r d i n a t i n g f e d e r a l agency t o which r e f e r r a l s were s e n t by t h e PCBranch, whereupon EPS r e d i r e c t e d them t o o t h e r f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s . The s t a t u t o r y a u t h o r i t y of DFF and i t s s u c c e s s o r s came from t h e F i s h e r i e s Act which at the time of the p e r m i t a p p l i c a t i o n o n l y a l l o w e d p r o s e c u t i o n of t h o s e harming f i s h . At t h i s t i m e (1968-70) i t d i d not a l l o w p r o s e c u t i o n or o t h e r s t a t u t o r y remedies f o r p r e d i c t e d d e s t r u c t i o n of f i s h h a b i t a t or f i s h ( the F i s h e r i e s Act was amended i n 1970 t o a l l o w c o n t r o l of the d i s c h a r g e of s u b s t a n c e s d e l e t e r i o u s t o f i s h ) . T h i s i n a b i l i t y t o a c t i n advance of damage c u r t a i l e d DFF's a b i l i t y t o e n f o r c e on e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e r s t h e terms and c o n d i t i o n s i t d e s i r e d t o p r o t e c t f i s h and h a b i t a t . Such p r o t e c t i o n had t o be e f f e c t e d e i t h e r t h r o u g h p r o v i s i o n s accompanying the p r o v i n c i a l p e r m i t , or t h r o u g h agreements a r r i v e d at p r i v a t e l y w i t h d i s c h a r g e r s . Though I do not i n t e n d t o r e v i e w s t a t u t o r y arrangements f o r impact assessment i n Canada and t h e U.S., I w i l l now b r i e f l y r e l a t e what o c c u r r e d at Utah t o impact assessment p r o c e s s e s i n g e n e r a l . The o r i g i n s of the Utah case p r e d a t e d such f e d e r a l p r o c e s s e s as NEPA or EARP. In a d d i t i o n t h e r e a r e many p r o v i n c i a l and s t a t e government p r o c e s s e s which are e x p e c t e d to r e s u l t i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l management (Couch 1982 p r o v i d e s a r e v i e w of f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l impact assessment p r o c e s s e s i n Canada). In t h e Utah case the (36) assessment and management of the t a i l i n g s and waste rock dump was p a r t of a p r o v i n c i a l p e r m i t and l i c e n s i n g r e v i e w p r o c e s s , where f o r m a l communication between government a g e n c i e s took p l a c e by way of r e f e r r a l s ( P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l A c t , 1967; B a r t o n e t _ a l _ 1984). The I s l a n d Copper Mine was one of the f i r s t major r e v i e w s c o n d u c t e d under t h i s p r o c e s s , and t h e r e f o r e o c c u r r e d d u r i n g the e a r l i e s t days of e n v i r o n m e n t a l management p r o c e s s e s . However, because of the p e r i o d i c amendments t o p e r m i t s and e x t e n s i o n s t o l e a s e s r e q u e s t e d by Utah, and t h e m o n i t o r i n g c o n d i t i o n s a t t a c h e d t o the o r i g i n a l p e r m i t , the case was r e g u l a r l y r e v i e w e d by f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l a g e n c i e s . T h i s r e s u l t e d i n 16 y e a r s ( t o date) of i t e r a t i v e assessment and management which has spanned t h e development of our t h i n k i n g r e g a r d i n g impact assessment and management p r o c e s s e s , and i n the p r o d u c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge t h a t c o u l d be a p p l i e d t o o t h e r s i m i l a r p r o j e c t s . PART It THE ASSESSMENT PHASE. A. The N e g o t i a t i o n s Between Utah Mines and DFF, and the PCB Review. The proposed Utah Mine came t o the a t t e n t i o n of DFF s t a f f a f t e r Utah had cond u c t e d e x t e n s i v e d r i l l i n g and a n a l y s i s of t h e ore body i n 1967 and 1968 (e v e n t s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e s e n e g o t i a t i o n s a re ta k e n from DFF f i l e 34-3-R2 and PCB f i l e 026100-PE-379, u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e n o t e d ) . DFF i n i t i a t e d c o n t a c t w i t h Utah Mines on March 15, 1968, and met w i t h them on A p r i l 18, 1968. A number of subsequent meetings o c c u r r e d from t h i s p o i n t u n t i l an agreement i n p r i n c i p l e over the c o n d i t i o n s of e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e was reached i n 1970. Du r i n g t h i s p e r i o d DFF r e q u e s t e d and a n a l y s e d i n f o r m a t i o n from Utah, and t o a much l e s s e r e x t e n t from i t s own i n t r a - a g e n c y s o u r c e s ( P a c i f i c B i o l o g i c a l S t a t i o n o c e a n o g r a p h i c d a t a ) . I t i s apparent from the f i l e s t h a t t h e p r i m a r y i n t e r e s t of DFF was i n a v o i d i n g o n - l a n d d i s p o s a l and i t s presumed t h r e a t t o (37) s a l mon i d p r o d u c t i o n — the p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s of t e s t s on the p o t e n t i a l of t h e t a i l i n g s t o b i o l o g i c a l l y l e a c h m e t a l s e f f e c t i v e l y p r e c l u d e d the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t e r r e s t r i a l t a i l i n g s impoundment as an o p t i o n . Utah p r e f e r r e d marine d i s p o s a l f o r a number of r e a s o n s t the d i f f i c u l t i e s of e n g i n e e r i n g an impoudment i n an a r e a of h i g h r a i n f a l l and f r e q u e n t e a r t h q u a k e s (Evans §rt a l _ 1979) and the lower c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h marine d i s p o s a l (PCB f i l e 0262100-PE-379). A f t e r t h i s i n i t i a l d e c i s i o n was t a k e n , DFF c o n c e n t r a t e d i t s e f f o r t s on a s s u r i n g i t s e l f t h a t the r i s k s from t o x i c i t y were m i n i m a l , and t h a t t u r b i d i t y would be c o n t a i n e d i n the deepest r e a c h e s of the I n l e t . The n e g o t i a t i o n s which went on between DFF and Utah over t h i s p e r i o d were, from DFF's p e r s p e c t i v e , aimed at r e a c h i n g a s s u r a n c e s t h a t t o x i c i t y or t u r b i d i t y i n d u c e d e f f e c t s c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d , and t h a t Utah would a c t t o c o n t r o l such impacts s h o u l d they o c c u r . Under the i n f l u e n c e of t h e i r r e s t r i c t e d mandate t o c o n t r o l damage i n advance of i t o c c u r r i n g , DFF m a i n t a i n e d a c o o p e r a t i v e and i n f o r m a l p o s i t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o Utah. Utah Nines i n t u r n was f o r t h c o m i n g both w i t h p r o d u c i n g the i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u e s t e d and i n f o l l o w i n g up d e s i g n changes s u g g e s t e d by DFF (see exchanges i n t h e DFF f i l e 34-3-R2). As mentioned, the PCB c o n t r o l l e d p e r m i t a p p r o v a l s . T h e i r i n v o l v e m e n t began i n November of 1968, 8 months a f t e r DFF i n i t i a t e d meetings w i t h Utah. Almost a n o t h e r year passed beforB the PCB was once more engaged, and t h i s was upon Utah's a p p l i c a t i o n on Oct. 2, 1969 f o r an e f f l u e n t d i s p o s a l p e r m i t . T h i s i n i t i a t e d the r e f e r r a l p r o c e s s , w h i c h , e x c e p t f o r t h e p r o v i n c i a l F i s h and W i l d l i f e Branch (who proposed c o n d i t i o n s t o t h e p e r m i t s i m i l a r t o t h o s e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d by DFF), r e s u l t e d i n no o b j e c t i o n s . DFF r e g i s t e r e d t h e i r a c c e p t a n c e of the p r o p o s a l on Oct. 15, 1969, s u b j e c t t o a number of c o n d i t i o n s : d a i l y m o n i t o r i n g of d i s s o l v e d metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n the e f f l u e n t ; monthly m o n i t o r i n g of s o l u a b l e metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n the I n l e t ' s ( 3 8 ) w a t e r s ; r e g u l a r 96 hour b i o a s s a y s ; and measurement of t u r b i d i t y and s a l i n i t y i n the I n l e t . Compared t o the m o n i t o r i n g program e v e n t u a l l y d e v e l o p e d , t h e s e were modest c o n d i t i o n s . D u r i n g October and November of 1969 t h e PCB r e c e i v e d 160 o b j e c t i o n s , 140 of which were w i t h i n the 30 day c u t - o f f d a t e . A f t e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e s e o b j e c t i o n s and i n t e r n a l a n a l y s i s of t h e d a t a d e v e l o p e d by Utah, the PCB i n f o r m e d Utah on Nov. 26, 1969, t h a t a p u b l i c h e a r i n g was l i k e l y t o be h e l d , and t h a t a p e r m i t would l i k e l y have p r o v i s i o n s a t t a c h e d t o i t r e q u i r i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l m o n i t o r i n g . Utah Mines responded w i t h a r e q u e s t f o r a h e a r i n g as soon as p o s s i b l e . Utah i t s e l f p r o v i d e d the i n i t i a l s i t e - s p e c i f i c d a t a w i t h which agency s t a f f p erformed t h e i r a s s e s s m e n t s . B a s i c s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e accompanied the p e r m i t a p p l i c a t i o n ; a subsequent l e t t e r (November 13, 1969) a m p l i f i e d t h e s e d a t a t o i n c l u d e p r e d i c t i o n s of e f f e c t s . DFF r e q u e s t e d the l e a c h i n g t e s t s , t e s t s of the s e t t l i n g r a t e s of t a i l i n g s i n f r e s h and s e a w a t e r , and b i o a s s a y s of s i m u l a t e d e f f l u e n t . The PCB r e q u e s t e d a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n on December 8, 1969 and December 30, 1969, i n c l u d i n g d e t a i l e d d a t a on s i e v e a n a l y s i s of the t a i l i n g s , t a i l i n g s d e n s i t y , t i d a l f l u s h i n g i n Rupert I n l e t , background metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s and a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of Rupert I n l e t , c o s t a n a l y s i s of l a n d v e r s u s sea d i s p o s a l , b i o l o g i c a l l e a c h i n g d a t a on the t a i l i n g s , f r e s h w a t e r f l u s h i n g i n the I n l e t , b i o a s s a y t e s t r e s u l t s , d e t a i l s of t h e m i l l i n g p r o c e s s , and l e a c h i n g t e s t s . I t i s a pparent from PCB f i l e s t h a t t h e s e d a t a were e x t e n s i v e l y a n a l y z e d , and i n f a c t i n a resume produced on F e b r u a r y 9, 1970, PCB s t a f f a c c u r a t e l y p r e d i c t e d f u t u r e t u r b i d i t y problems o f f of Hankin P o i n t , and q u e s t i o n e d Utah's s t u d y of f 1 o c c u l a t i o n . In May 1970 a n o t h e r i n t e r n a l PCB memo q u e s t i o n e d t h e adequacy of r e s e a r c h on o c e a n o g r a p h i c c o n d i t i o n s , and i n p a r t i c u l a r T.W. Beak's f a i l u r e t o c o l l e c t b i o l o g i c a l and o c e a n o g r a p h i c d a t a ( 3 9 ) o f f Q u a t s i n o Narrows, and su g g e s t e d t h a t s a l i n i t y d a t a were b e i n g m i s i n t e r p r e t e d , and f i n a l l y noted v i s u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s of t h e f l o o d t i d e " d i v i n g " o f f Hankin P o i n t . S i m i l a r l y , DFF s t a f f more a c c u r a t e l y p r e d i c t e d the e v e n t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t s i n Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s t han d i d Utah N i n e ' s s t a f f and c o n s u l t a n t s (Utah 1970). A l t h o u g h DFF and PCB con d u c t e d a p p a r e n t l y independent a n a l y s e s of the da t a p r o v i d e d them, they conducted no f i e l d s t u d i e s or e x p e r i m e n t s t h e m s e l v e s . Beak C o n s u l t a n t s undertook a s p e c t s of the o c e a n o g r a p h i c and b i o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s f o r Utah, and t h e s e d a t a were f o r w a r d e d t o the government a g e n c i e s , n e i t h e r of whom p r o v i d e d comment on s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e s . S i m i l a r l y , B.C. Research was r e t a i n e d by Utah t o measure c u r r e n t v e l o c i t i e s t h r o u g h o u t the water column. From J a n u a r y t o A p r i l of 1970 B.C. Res e a r c h c o n d u c t e d a l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w of t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l at the r e q u e s t of t h e Department of Lands, F o r e s t s , and Water R e s o u r c e s . T h i s i n f l u e n t i a l r e p o r t c o n c l u d e d t h a t marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l was f e a s i b l e and p r e f e r a b l e i f : 1. t h e o u t f a l l was i n deep water below t h e zone of s i g n i f i c a n t t r o p h i c a c t i v i t y and s u r f a c e t u r b u l e n c e ; 2. the pH of e f f l u e n t and t h e a d d i t i o n of f l o c c u l a n t s and c o a g u l a n t s were c o n t r o l l e d t o m i n i m i z e t o x i c i t y and t u r b i d i t y ; 3. t h e dominant p h y s i c a l , c h e m i c a l , and b i o l o g i c a l f e a t u r e s of the r e c e i v i n g environment were known, and b i o l o g i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y was low; 4. m o n i t o r i n g of the r e c e i v i n g environment was c a r r i e d o u t ; and, 5. t h a t t h e i r c o n c l u s i o n s be r e v i e w e d as n e c e s s a r y , g i v e n t h e u n c e r t a i n s t a t e of c u r r e n t knowledge (B.C. Research 1970). What i s c l e a r from t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i s t h a t PCB and DFF a c t e d always as r e v i e w e r s of i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e d by Utah, and though both f r e q u e n t l y (40) i n d i c a t e d which i n f o r m a t i o n they wished p r o d u c e d , n e i t h e r s p e c i f i e d the c o n d i t i o n s under which i t would be c o l l e c t e d , r e l y i n g i n s t e a d on the judgement of Utah's c o n s u l t a n t s . By l a t e 1969 a t e n t a t i v e agreement had been r e a c h e d over t h e c o n d i t i o n s which DFF would f i n d a c c e p t a b l e , though t h e wording remained a m a t t e r of d i s p u t e i n t o the f o l l o w i n g summer. In p a r t i c u l a r the c i r c u m s t a n c e s under which Utah would h a l t p r o d u c t i o n i f t o x i c i t y or t u r b i d i t y became p r o b l e m a t i c a l were g i v e n c a r e f u l a t t e n t i o n . In J a n u a r y of 1970 c l e a r i n g of the m i n e s i t e and p r e l i m i n a r y c o n s t r u c t i o n commenced. B. The P u b l i c H e a r i n g . S i g n i f i c a n t o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e p r o p o s a l came from o u t s i d e government a g e n c i e s , however. Many of t h e w r i t t e n o b j e c t i o n s r e c e i v e d were of a g e n e r a l n a t u r e , however SPEC'S, P a t r i c k Moore's (a Phd c a n d i d a t e at UBC), and t h a t of a group of s c i e n t i s t s at t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B.C. (C.S. H o l l i n g , P.A. L a r k i n , I.A. E f f o r d , and J.P. Kimmins) a d d r e s s e d the s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s i n v o l v e d i n marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l . SPEC'S s u b m i s s i o n i n c l u d e d recommendations f o r an independent group t o p r o v i d e t e c h n i c a l a d v i c e on the p r o j e c t , and the o r g a n i z a t i o n l a t e r f o l l o w e d up w i t h a p r o p o s a l t o the PCB and DFF f o r b a s e l i n e e c o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s i n Rupert I n l e t (Lucas and Moore 1973:42-43). In t h e f a c e of t h e s e o b j e c t i o n s a p u b l i c h e a r i n g was c a l l e d . Due t o a s t r i c t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r o c e d u r e s used by the PCB t o i d e n t i f y i n t e r v e n o r s , o n l y f o u r o b j e c t o r s were a l l o w e d t o a t t e n d t h e p u b l i c h e a r i n g which e v e n t u a l l y took p l a c e December 3, 1970. At t h i s p u b l i c h e a r i n g t e c h n i c a l i s s u e s were the o n l y a l l o w e d t o p i c . The h e a r i n g p r o c e s s can b e s t be d e s c r i b e d as a d v e r s a r i a l and q u a s i - j u d i c i a l , w i t h t h e D i r e c t o r and h i B s t a f f a c t i n g as j u d g e , and b r i e f s b e i n g a c c e p t e d and s u b j e c t t o (41 ) c r o s s - e x a m i n a t i o n . The f o u r o b j e c t o r s were r e p r e s e n t e d by t h r e e s c i e n t i s t s and a l a w y e r , who r a i s e d a number of the s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s c o n s i d e r e d i n Chapter 2. Lucas and Moore t r e a t the d i f f i c u l t i e s s u r r o u n d i n g p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the Utah case and the d i a l o g u e of the h e a r i n g c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y (1973157-60). R e g a r d l e s s of t h e p o i n t s r a i s e d d u r i n g t h e h e a r i n g , the p e r m i t was i s s u e d J a n u a r y 20, 1971 and i n c l u d e d a p r o v i s i o n f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an independent agency t o d e s i g n and i n t e r p r e t the r e s u l t s of a m o n i t o r i n g program. Though the f i l e s of the PCB and DFF c l e a r l y convey d i l i g e n t and t h o u g h t f u l e f f o r t s on the p a r t of t h e i r s t a f f , the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of i m p a c t s f a i l e d s p e c t a c u l a r l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s . At t h i s p o i n t I o n l y wish t o r e i t e r a t e t h a t a l t h o u g h DFF, PCB, Utah and i t s c o n s u l t a n t s , and independent s c i e n t i s t s and p u b l i c i n t e r e s t groups were a l l p u r s u i n g t h i s i s s u e , i t was not f i n a l l y s e t t l e d u n t i l l o n g a f t e r t h e p e r m i t was approved. Other than t h e a d v e r s a r i a l forum of the p u b l i c h e a r i n g , no j o i n t c o n f e r e n c e s or h e a r i n g s were h e l d t o attempt t o r e s o l v e t h e debate over f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n d u r i n g t h i s r e v i e w p r o c e s s . PART I I . THE MANAGEMENT PHASE. C. The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Independent Agency. The m o n i t o r i n g p r o v i s i o n accompanying the p e r m i t a l s o c a l l e d f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an independent agency t o i n t e r p r e t d a t a produced by the m o n i t o r i n g program, and t o p r o v i d e t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e i n i t s d e s i g n and o p e r a t i o n . Utah Mines approached the I n s t i t u t e of Oceanography and the M i n e r a l E n g i n e e r i n g Department at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia (UBC), (42) w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t a c o n t r a c t between Utah and UBC was u n d e r t a k e n t o p r o v i d e t h e s e s e r v i c e s . T a b l e 3.1, r e p r o d u c e d from the UBC independent agency (UBC IA) annual r e p o r t s (UBC 1974), p r o v i d e s t h e l i s t of t h e s e s e r v i c e s and of the UBC s t a f f who were to f u l f i l l them. Though i n r e t r o s p e c t t h i s m o n i t o r i n g program has been s e v e r e l y c r i t i c i z e d f o r i t s f o c u s and p r o c e d u r e s ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977), i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t at the time i t f a r exceeded the e x p e c t a t i o n s of the DFF and of t h e PCB, both of whom a c c e p t e d i t as proposed i n May of 1971 (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2j PCB f i l e 0262100-PE-379). N e i t h e r group were i n v o l v e d i n i t s d e s i g n , and the d e t a i l s of t h i s p r o c e s s have never been p u b l i s h e d . However, Evans et_ al_<1973) have s t a t e d t h a t thB program adopted a s t r a t e g y of c o l l e c t i n g a wider range of d a t a than might e v e n t u a l l y prove t o be u s e f u l . In view of t h e c o n t r o v e r s y which l a t e r d e v e l o p e d , i t i s n o t e w o r t h y t h a t n e i t h e r a deep b e n t h i c e c o l o g i s t , a f i s h e r i e s b i o l o g i s t , nor a s p e c i a l i s t i n n e a r s h o r e benthos were i n i t i a l l y on the agency, though both were added l a t e r . The UBC IA had l i t t l e t ime t o d e v e l o p t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n f o r the p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l component of t h e i r program. They r e v i e w e d p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h d u r i n g J a n u a r y and F e b r u a r y of 1971, and by March T.W. Beak was c o l l e c t i n g p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l b a s e l i n e d a t a (Evans et a l _ 1973). As the mine began o p e r a t i o n s i n October 1971, o n l y 7 months were a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s element of the s t u d y . Lucas and Moore (1973) q u e s t i o n e d the c o m p o s i t i o n of the UBC IA s c i e n t i s t s , n o t i n g t h e preponderance of e n g i n e e r s and p h y s i c a l s c i e n t i s t s over l i f e s c i e n t i s t s — 8 of t h e o r i g i n a l 10. L i k e the d e s i g n of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program, the c o m p o s i t i o n of t h e UBC IA was not d e v e l o p e d w i t h PCB or DFF i n p u t . SCHEDULE "A" Item 1 . R u p e r t I n l e t S e i s m i c P r o f i l e TABULATION Of SERVICES TO BE PROVIDED WITH RESPECT TO POLLUTION D e s c r i p t i o n D e t e r m i n e b o t t o m p r o f i l e and s e d i m e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n . S e r v i c e s t o be p r o v i d e d by S p e c i a l i s t C o n t r a c t o r ( G e o m a r i n e S e r v i c e s ) and U t a h u n d e r d i r e c t -i o n o f U . B . C . CONTROL PERMIT NO. 3 7 9 - P F r e q u e n c y M a r c h ' 7 1 , t h e n t w i c e - y e a r l y In I n i t i a l p e r i o d a f t e r p r o d u c t i o n a c h i e v e d . O b j e c t i v e To e s t a b l i s h e x t e n t , b u i l d - u p r a t e and n a t u r e o f m i n e t a i l i n g d e l t a . I n t e n d e d U . B . C . F a c u l t y Member I n v o l v e d D r . M u r r a y ( G e o l o g y ) R u p e r t I n l e t By o b t a i n i n g g r a b and c o r e s a m p l e s and B o t t o m S a m p l i n g b o t t o m p h o t o g r a p h y , d e t e r m i n e -a ) P h y s i c a l S C h e m i c a l p r o p e r t i e s b ) B i o l o g i c a l p r o p e r t i e s Permanent s t a t i o n s w i t h i n R u p e r t I n l e t and r e f e r e n c e s t a t i o n s I n a d j o i n i n g w a t e r w a y s t o be m a i n t a i n e d . a ) P h y s i c a l 4 C h e m i c a l -S p e c . C o n t r a c t o r ( G e o m a r i n e ) and U t a h u n d e r d i r e c t i o n o f U . B . C . b) B i o l o g i c a l -S p e c . C o n t r a c t o r (Beak C o n s u l t -a n t s ) and U t a h u n d e r d i r e c t i o n o f U . B . C . a ) P h y s i c a l a C h e m i c a l - M a r c h ' 7 1 , t h e n c e t w i c e - y e a r l y . b) B i o l o g i c a l - M a r c h '71 To e s t a b l i s h p r e s e n t R u p e r t I n l e t b e n t h o s c o n d i t i o n s a n d m o n i t o r p o s s i b l e c h a n g e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m m i n e t a i l i n g I n t r o d u c t i o n . P h y s i c a l : - D r . M u r r a y . C h e m i c a l : - 0 r . F l e t c h e r ( G e o l o g y ) B i o l o g i c a l : -Z o o p l a n k t o n - D r . L e w i s ( O c e a n ) P h y t o p l a n k t o n -D r . T a y l o r ( O c e a n ) R u p e r t I n l e t By a p p r o v e d t e c h n i q u e s , d e t e r m i n e n a t u r e W a t e r S a m p l i n g o f R u p e r t I n l e t Water -a) P h y s i c a l 4 C h e m i c a l P r o p e r t i e s -t e m p . , s a l i n i t y , p H , a l k a l i n i t y , d i s s o l v e d o x y g e n , " t u r b i d i t y " , s e a c o n d i t i o n s and w e a t h e r . M e a s u r e m e n t s t a k e n a t s p e c i f i c w a t e r d e p t h s on permanent s t a t i o n s 1n R u p e r t I n l e t and a d j o i n i n g w a t e r s . b ) B i o l o g i c a l p r o p e r t i e s -1) N e t tows a t s p e c i f i e d d e p t h s on p e r m a n e n t s t a t i o n s i i ) I n t e r t i d a l p l a t e s a t r e f e r e n c e s t a t i o n s . 111) Heavy m e t a l c o n t e n t s o f r e s i d e n t m a c r o s p e c i e s . P h y s i c a l > C h e m i c a l -U t a h u n d e r d i r e c t i o n o f U . B . C . b ) B i o l o g i c a l -S p e c . C o n t r a c t o r ( B e a k ) u n d e r d i r e c t i o n o f U . B . C . a ) P h y s i c a l t C h e m i c a l -I n i t i a l l y m o n t h l y , commencing M a r c h '71 i) B i o l o g i c a l -1) Tows - m o n t h l y , p h y t o p l a n k t o n d e t e r m i n e d by c h l o r o p h y l l " a " a n a l y s i s m o n t h l y ; z o o p l a n k t o n b i o m a s s a n a l y s e d q u a r t e r l y , i l ) I n t e r t i d a l p l a t e s - i n i t i a l l y e x a m i n e d m o n t h l y and r e p l a c e d -when r e q u i r e d . 111) R e s i d u a l m a c r o s p e c i e s a n a l y s e d as s p e c i m e n s o b t a i n e d . To d e t e r m i n e n a t u r a l p h y s i c a l , c h e m i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l v a r i a t i o n s i n R u p e r t I n l e t w a t e r s and e q u a t e t h e s e v a r i a t i o n s w i t h p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f I s l a n d C o p p e r m i n e e f f l u e n t s . P h y s i c a l : -D r . P l c k a r d ( O c e a n ) C h e m i c a l : -D r . G r i l l ( O c e a n ) D r . F l e t c h e r ( G e o l o g y ) B i o l o g i c a l : -Z o o p l a n k t o n - D r . L e w i s P h y t o p l a n k t o n -D r . T a y l o r Heavy m e t a l s -D r . F l e t c h e r R u p e r t I n l e t O r a i n a q e S a m p l i n g E f f l u e n t 6 . Q u a r t e r l y R e p o r t By m o n i t o r i n g I n f l o w i n g s t r e a m s , d e t e r m i n e p h y s i c a l and c h e m i c a l p r o p e r t i e s o f n a t u r -a l d r a i n a g e f l o w s . By m o n i t o r i n g t a i l i n g l i n e , d e t e r m i n e r a t e and n a t u r e o f m i n e e f f l u e n t d i s -c h a r g i n g i n t o R u p e r t I n l e t . By a n a l y s i s o f r e t r i e v a b l e t a i l i n g s a m p l e s , d e t e r m i n e o x i d a t i o n r a t e o f i n s i t u p a r t i c u l a t e t a i l i n g 1n R u p e r t I n l e t . C o l l a t i o n o f above d a t a and p r e p a r a t i o n o f r e p o r t . U t a h u n d e r d i r e c t i o n o f U . B . C . U t a h u n d e r d i r e c t i o n o f U . B . C . U . B . C . Q u a r t e r l y , commencing M a r c h '71 a ) T a i l i n g l i n e , d a i l y , o n c e p r o d u c t i o n commences. b ) R e t r i e v a b l e s a m p l e s , I n i t i a l l y t w i c e - y e a r l y , o n c e p r o d u c t i o n i s a c h i e v e d . Q u a r t e r l y D e t e r m i n e p r o p e r t i e s o f n a t u r a l R u p e r t I n l e t d r a i n a g e i n f l o w , s p e c i f i c a l l y n a t u r a l h e a v y m e t a l c o n t e n t s . D e t e r m i n e n a t u r e o f m i n e e f f l u e n t and m o n i t o r h e a v y m e t a l and f l o t a t i o n r e a g e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s a n d r a t e o f d i s p e r s i o n . F u l f i l l r e q u i r e m e n t F l o w r a t e s : -D r . Q u i c k ( C i v i l ) G e o c h e m i c a l : -D r . F l e t c h e r T a i l i n g r a t e 4 c o m p o s i t 1 o n : -M r . E v a n s ( M i n e r a l E n g . ) R e t r i e v a b l e s a m p l e s : -O r . L e j a ( M i n e r a l E n g . ) D r . P o l i n g ( M i n e r a l E n g ) M r . E v a n s ( M i n e r a l E n g . ) 00 T a b l e 3.1. The O r i g i n a l M o n i t o r i n g P r o g r a m a t U t a h M i n e s . (Source: U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia 1972) (44) The UBC IA t h r o u g h o u t i t s e x i s t e n c e (1971-79) m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e submarine d i s p o s a l of t a i l i n g s had not a f f e c t e d Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s s i g n i f i c a n t l y (UBC Summary R e p o r t s 1973-1978)} Evans et^ a]_ 1973 j Evans et a I 1979; P o l i n g 1979; E l l i s ed. 1982). T h e i r p o s i t i o n can be summarized as; 1. t u r b i d i t y l e v e l s have i n c r e a s e d i n Rupert I n l e t , but " n o r m a l l y t h e s e t u r b i d i t y i n c r e a s e s o c c u r at depths below the 30m l e v e l , and d i m i n i s h r a p i d l y when I s l a n d Copper d i s c h a r g e s c e a s e " , and t h a t "deep water u p w e l l i n g s o c c u r at the j u n c t i o n of Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s . . . . (and) on o c c a s i o n t h e s e u p w e l l i n g s can c a r r y suspended s o l i d s " ( i b i d ; 2 9 ) ; 2. but t h a t " t o d a t e no m i n e - r e l a t e d d e c l i n e i n p h y t o p l a n k t o n [ p h o t o s y n t h e t i c ] a c t i v i t y " has o c c u r r e d ( i b i d ; 3 5 ) ; 3. " m o l l u s c p o p u l a t i o n s a r e reduced under l i g h t t a i l i n g s " but t h a t once " d e p o s i t i o n c e a s e s and s u b s t r a t e s t a b i l i t y i s r e s t o r e d , benthos r e c o l o n i z a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e r a p i d l y " ( i b i d ! 3 7 ) , and "benthos show i m p a c t , i n terms of d i v e r s i t y and abundance, i n a r e a s where s u b s t r a t e s were c o n t i n u o u s l y d i s t u r b e d . . . [ b u t ] s t a b i l i z e d s u b s t r a t e s r e a d i l y s u p p o r t communities r e g a r d l e s s of t h e amount of t a i l i n g s i n the s u b s t r a t e " ( I s l a n d Copper Mine 1983:94); 4. no d e c r e a s e i n c r a b or salmon h a r v e s t s has o c c u r r e d ( i b i d : 3 7 ) ; and, 5. t o x i c i t y has not proved t o be a problem, and t h e r e i s "a l a c k of e v i d e n c e " of b i o - a c c u m u l a t i o n (Evans et^ al_ 1979:34); 6. "the program has a c h i e v e d an a c c e p t a b l e degree of s u r v e i l l a n c e of the ecosystem coming under the i n f l u e n c e of the t a i l i n g s d i s c h a r g e " (Evans et a l _ 1973); 7. "the a u t h o r s h o l d the c o n v i c t i o n t h a t the d i s c h a r g e has not s t r e s s e d the n a t u r a l marine ecosystem beyond an a c c e p t a b l e e x t e n t " ( i b i d : 3 7 ) . As mentioned, t h e r e has been no p u b l i s h e d d i s c u s s i o n of the way i n which (45) t h e c o n c l u s i o n s of t h e UBC IA were r e a c h e d , however t h e format of the annual r e p o r t s a r e s u g g e s t i v e . These r e p o r t s were a u t h o r e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y , and c o l l a t e d and summarized by P r o f e s s o r Evans of M i n e r a l E n g i n e e r i n g . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e were no f o r m a l meetings of members t o p r e p a r e r e p o r t s , and t h a t i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of d a t a each member of the agency o p e r a t e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y w i t h i n t h e i r a r e a of e x p e r t i s e . Though a p p a r e n t l y t h e r e were o c c a s i o n a l d i s p u t e s over the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of b i o l o g i c a l d a t a (PCB f i l e 0262100-PE-379, J u l y 9, 1973), the n a t u r e of d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n w i t h i n the UBC IA i s unknown. Though the m o n i t o r i n g program was a l t e r e d p e r i o d i c a l l y , t h e s e changes appeared to o r i g i n a t e w i t h i n d i v i d u a l members of t h e team (c£ E l l i s 1974). D. The E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e . The Environment P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e of Environment Canada i n i t i a t e d a s t u d y i n 1974 t o a d d r e s s the h i g h l e v e l s of s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y f i r s t o b s e r v e d i n Rupert and H o l b e r g I n l e t s i n t h e s p r i n g of 1972, and t o r e v i e w the o t h e r s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s ( u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e n o t e d , t h i s s e c t i o n i s based on G o y e t t e and Nelson C19773). The s t u d y was i n p a r t a r e s p o n s e t o Utah's a p p l i c a t i o n f o r an amended p e r m i t t o i n c r e a s e maximum e f f l u e n t d i s c h a r g e t o 50,000 tonnes per day, which r e s u l t e d i n a r e f e r r a l from the PCB t o EPS on A p r i l 30, 1973. The r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977) c o n t r a d i c t e d f i n d i n g s of the UBC committee, or a t t a c h e d d i f f e r e n t s i g n i f i c a n c e t o them, and p r e c i p i t a t e d c o n s i d e r a b l e p u b l i c a t t e n t i o n on t h i s d i s p u t e w i t h i n the s c i e n t i f i c community. EPS used a number of t e c h n i q u e s t o pursue i t s s t u d y . A e r i a l photography was used t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t of s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y . T ransmissometer p r o f i l e s , and s u b m e r s i b l e and SCUBA v i s u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s were made t o (46) d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t of t h e s u b s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y c l o u d . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t s were d e t e r m i n e d i n a manner s i m i l a r t o the m o n i t o r i n g p r o g r a m — v i s u a l and c h e m i c a l a n a l y s e s of Ponar grab samples. Samples of m o l l u s c s were a n a l y z e d f o r heavy metal c o n t e n t . These o b s e r v a t i o n s were made from 1971 t o 1975. T h e i r c o n c l u s i o n s were t h a t ! 1. t a i l i n g s s o l i d s d e p o s i t i o n was more e x t e n s i v e both a r e a l l y and v e r t i c a l l y than had been p r e d i c t e d , and impinged on b i o l o g i c a l l y p r o d u c t i v e z o n e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y around Han k i n P o i n t ; 2. " r e s u l t s of t h e E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n S e r v i c e s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t s u r f a c e and s u b s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y and t a i l i n g s u p w e l l i n g i s much more e x t e n s i v e and f r e q u e n t than s u g g e s t e d by t h e company and the independent agency", and i n t r u d e d i n t o t h e most b i o l o g i c a l l y p r o d u c t i v e a r e a s (the i n t e r and s u b t i d a l z o n e s ) , and t h a t i t o n l y d e c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y i n the mid-water column a f t e r an extended p e r i o d w i t h o u t d i s c h a r g e ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977a 65-66)| 3. "mine sediment d e p o s i t i o n . . . . has had, and i s c o n t i n u i n g t o e x e r t , a p r o g r e s s i v e l y d e t r i m e n t a l e f f e c t on t h e b e n t h i c b i o t a by a l t e r i n g n a t i v e h a b i t a t and s m o t h e r i n g r e s i d e n t B p e c i e s " , and i s i n p a r t i c u l a r d i s p l a c i n g r o c k y s u b s t r a t e s w i t h t a i l i n g s ; 4. as a r e s u l t of s u b m e r s i b l e and o t t e r t r a w l s t u d i e s , the deep benthos community was "much more d i v e r s e " than Utah had r e p o r t e d i n i t s b r i e f t o the PCB, and t h a t t h e r e f o r e the r e l a t i v e e x t e n t of o b l i t e r a t i o n was g r e a t e r than t h e UBC IA had i n d i c a t e d ; 5. t h e s e e f f e c t s " w i l l u l t i m a t e l y i m p a i r the b i o l o g i c a l p r o d u c t i v i t y of Rupert I n l e t by r e d u c i n g s p e c i e s d i v e r s i t y and abundance"; 6. t h e r e i s l i m i t e d e v i d e n c e of a s l i g h t b i o a c c u m u l a t i o n of copper i n t o marine o r g a n i s m , p a r t i c u l a r l y b i v a l v e s , however the metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s f l u c t u a t e from year t o y e a r , and " f u r t h e r s a m p l i n g i s r e q u i r e d b e f o r e (47) any d e f i n i t e c o n c l u s i o n s can be made" ( i b i d ; 5 5 ) ; 7, " a l l a s p e c t s of t h e b i o l o g i c a l impact which can be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h mine  waste d i s p o s a l i n Rupert I n l e t have not been f u l l y a s s e s s e d , nor has the  I s l a n d Copper Mine been i n o p e r a t i o n l o n g enough f o r a l l of the  p o t e n t i a l d e l e t e r i o u s e f f e c t s t o f u l l y d e v e l o p " ( i b i d ; 4 7 , emphasis i n the o r i g i n a l ) ; 8. based on t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , a r e - e v a l u a t i o n of t h e d i s p o s a l system was w a r r a n t e d . G o y e t t e and N e l s o n e x p l a i n e d t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h t h e UBC IA as a r e s u l t of the UBC IA's f a i l u r e t o c o n s i d e r a number of r e l e v a n t i s s u e s . The m o n i t o r i n g program's b e n t h i c program r e l i e d on b i a s e d p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l benthos d a t a c o l l e c t e d by an i n e f f i c i e n t s a m p l e r , which u n d e r - r e p r e s e n t e d b e n t h i c s p e c i e s , and i t a l s o f a i l e d t o sample e p i b e n t h i c f a u n a such as prawns, and demersal s p e c i e s such as s o l e or r o c k f i s h . In a d d i t i o n , Ponar grab samples of o b l i t e r a t e d benthos o c c a s i o n a l l y c o l l e c t e d p e l a g i c copepods on d e c e n t , which were i n i t i a l l y i n c l u d e d as b e n t h i c o r g a n i s m s . T u r b i d i t y c l o u d s were o n l y sampled at p a r t i c u l a r s t a t i o n s , r a t h e r than b e i n g d e l i n e a t e d as r e q u i r e d . N e a r s h o r e b e n t h i c s t u d i e s f a i l e d t o f o c u s on a r e a s of maximum t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t i o n . F i n a l l y , the c o n s i d e r a b l e q u a n t i t i e s of d a t a on p a r a m e t e r s which have not shown any mine r e l a t e d e f f e c t were f e l t t o have obsc u r e d the major impact on b e n t h i c communities (1977:60-70). Though t h i s s t u d y provoked c o n s i d e r a b l e p u b l i c and governmental c o n c e r n , the a p p l i c a t i o n t o amend the p e r m i t which s t i m u l a t e d i t had been approved by June 30, 1977 (PCB f i l e 0262100-PE-379), 5 months b e f o r e t h e r e p o r t was r e l e a s e d . N e i t h e r the EPS r e p o r t nor UBC IA annual r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e d any communication between them, e i t h e r d u r i n g the s t u d y or a f t e r the r e p o r t . Members of t h e UBC IA and the ICM m o n i t o r i n g program d i d r e a c t i n the media, (48) c a l l i n g t h e r e p o r t an " o p i n i o n r e p o r t " (Vancouver P r o v i n c e , J a n u a r y 20, 1978) and " u n s c i e n t i f i c " (Vancouver Sun, J a n u a r y 21, 1978). E. The Waldichuk and Buchanan Review. In March of 1978 a c o - s t u d y by Environment Canada and t h e p r o v i n c i a l M i n i s t r y of t h e E n v i r o n m e n t , of which t h e PCB was a department, was i n i t i a t e d t o r e s o l v e t h e d i s p u t e between EPS and t h e UBC IA. I t s terms of r e f e r e n c e were t o " r e v i e w and r e p o r t the f a c t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o : (a) t h e d i s p o s a l p a t t e r n of t a i l i n g s from Utah Mines i n Rupert I n l e t ; and (b) the e n v i r o n m e n t a l change which i s t a k i n g p l a c e , and i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e " (Waldichuk and Buchanan 1980). Waldichuk and Buchanan co n d u c t e d t h e i r i n v e s t i g a t i o n by i n t e r v i e w i n g , g e n e r a l l y i n d i v i d u a l l y , the p e r s o n s who had been i n any c a p a c i t y i n v o l v e d , or who c o u l d p r o v i d e e x p e r t i s e on p a r t i c u l a r i s s u e s . These i n t e r v i e w s extended from F e b r u a r y 1978 t o October 1980, and i n c l u d e d 80 p e r s o n a l or t e l e p h o n e i n t e r v i e w s and l e t t e r s (see Appendix I , Waldichuk and Buchanan C19803 f o r a l i s t of p a r t i c i p a n t s and d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e s e i n t e r v i e w s ) . Waldichuk and Buchanan's c o n c l u s i o n s were w i d e - r a n g i n g and somewhat ambiguous. B r i e f l y summarized, they were t h a t : 1. mine t a i l i n g s a r e o b l i t e r a t i n g h a b i t a t as e x p e c t e d , but t h a t r e c o l o n i z a t i o n s h o u l d be q u i t e r a p i d ; 2. u n a n t i c i p a t e d r e s u s p e n s i o n of t a i l i n g s o c c u r s o f f Hankin P o i n t , and r e d e p o s i t i o n o c c u r s i n the s u b t i d a l and i n t e r t i d a l z o n e s , but t h e i r e c o l o g i c a l impact i s unknown; 3. t a i l i n g s do not appear t o be t o x i c ; 4. t h e waste rock dump i s d e g r a d i n g an a r e a p o t e n t i a l l y v a l u a b l e t o j u v e n i l e s a l m o n i d s , and c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e I n l e t ' s s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y ; (49) 5 . no d e c l i n e i n c o m m e r c i a l s t o c k s i s e v i d e n t , h o w e v e r i n s u f f i c i e n t d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e on s a l m o n , c r a b s , p r a w n s , and g r o u n d f i s h t o a l l o w a c r i t i c a l a s s e s s m e n t of t h e s e e f f e c t s t o be made; 6. t h e r e i s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e of m e t a l s ' c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n c r e a s i n g i n t h e w a t e r c o l u m n , b u t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n t h e i n t e r s t i t i a l w a t e r of s e d i m e n t s a r e u n k n o w n ; 7. i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t m e t a l s a r e b e i n g b i o a c c u m u l a t e d , h o w e v e r a s t a t i s t i c a l l y v a l i d s t u d y h a s n o t been d o n e ; 8. t h e m o n i t o r i n g p r o g r a m , w h i l e c o m p r e h e n s i v e , d o e s n o t a d e q u a t e l y f o c u s on t h e e f f e c t s of t h e t a i l i n g s on c o m m e r c i a l s p e c i e s o r on s u c h i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s a s f o o d c h a i n l i n k a g e s ; 9 . t h e l o n g - t e r m e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s c a n n o t be p r e d i c t e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y d i a g e n e s i s ; 1 0 . t h e e f f e c t s of t u r b i d i t y on p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i v i t y and s a l m o n i d m i g r a t i o n a r e u n k n o w n ; a n d , 1 1 . a c h a n g e i n t h e d i s p o s a l s y s t e m i s n o t w a r r a n t e d g i v e n c u r r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n . T h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s w e r e f o l l o w e d by a s e t of r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s ! 1 . i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n t o i m p r o v e m e n t of t h e o u t f a l l d e s i g n s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n ; 2. i n t e r s t i t i a l m e t a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s s h o u l d be m o n i t o r e d ; 3 . t h e e f f e c t of t a i l i n g s d e p o s i t i o n on b e n t h i c c o m m u n i t i e s s h o u l d be s t u d i e d t h r o u g h a n a l y s i s of t r a n s e c t s f r o m t h e i n t e r t i d a l t o t h e deep b e n t h o s ; 4. t h e w a s t e r o c k dump s i t e s h o u l d be r e g r a d e d t o e n c o u r a g e r e c o l o n i z a t i o n ; 5 . b i o a c c u m u l a t i o n i n a s t a n d a r d o r g a n i s m ( M y t i l u s e d u l i s ) s h o u l d be m o n i t o r e d ; 6. s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e s f o r s h a l l o w s u b t i d a l and i n t e r t i d a l a r e a s s h o u l d be (50) upgraded; 7. e x t e n s i v e r e s e a r c h on the d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s on commercial s p e c i e s and t h e i r h a b i t a t s s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n ; 8. f i e l d and l a b o r a t o r y e x p e r i m e n t s on d i a g e n e t i c p r o c e s s e s i n s e d i m e n t s s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n ; 9. a more r i g o r o u s program r e l a t i n g t u r b i d i t y and p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i v i t y s h o u l d be c o n d u c t e d ; and, 10. r e s e a r c h on the e f f e c t s of suspended s e d i m e n t s on the m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o r of R u p e r t - H o i berg s a l m o n i d s s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n . Though t h e s e recommendations were to say the l e a s t c o m p r e h e n s i v e , no program or even s u g g e s t i o n s f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n were p r o v i d e d by the a u t h o r s , nor were the c o s t s of the v a r i o u s recommendations i t e m i z e d . The p u b l i c a t i o n of t h e s e r e s u l t s f o l l o w e d the disbandment of the UBC agency i n 1979. The o p e r a t i o n of the agency had been r e v i e w e d i n t e r n a l l y by the U n i v e r s i t y . A summary of the c o n c l u s i o n s of t h i s r e v i e w recommended some changes i n the o p e r a t i o n of f u t u r e a d v i s o r y groups h a v i n g u n i v e r s i t y p a r t i c i p a t i o n , however, as the complete r e p o r t was never r e l e a s e d , the r e a s o n i n g b e h i n d t h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s i s unknown. F. A f t e r m a t h . Waldichuk and Buchanan's recommendations were o n l y i n p a r t a c t e d upon. For i n s t a n c e , some s t u d y of j u v e n i l e s a l m o n i d s d i s t r i b u t i o n and f e e d i n g has been i n i t i a t e d by the company, but no d a t a has been r e l e a s e d t o d a t e . The m o n i t o r i n g program c o n t i n u e s , now d i r e c t e d by Utah s t a f f , w i t h c o n s u l t i n g a d v i c e from a T e c h n i c a l A d v i s o r y Committee of s i x s c i e n t i s t s , i n c l u d i n g f o u r of t h o s e on t h e o r i g i n a l UBC agency. The annual r e p o r t s of the m o n i t o r i n g program a r e , under Utah's a u t h o r s h i p , much more comprehensive i n t h e i r ( 5 1 ) r e p o r t i n g and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of d a t a , and i n t h e i r use of g r a p h i c a l s u p p o r t of t h e t e x t . These r e p o r t s c o n t i n u e t o be c i r c u l a t e d t o and r e v i e w e d by t h e WMB, EPS, and DFO. And, as E l l i s ' s r e c e n t e d i t i e d volume i n d i c a t e s , t he e x p e r i e n c e s of t h e Utah case c o n t i n u e t o be used as a model f o r o t h e r marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l p r o p o s a l s . S. C o n c l u s i o n s . I t i s c l e a r from t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n of the Utah case t h a t though some s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s were e v e n t u a l l y r e s o l v e d t o t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n of a l l p a r t i e s , n o t a b l y c o n c e r n s over f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s and t h e immediate t o x i c i t y of m e t a l s , many o t h e r s c o n t i n u e t o promote d i s p u t e . A l t h o u g h t h e c o m p l e x i t y and u n c e r t a i n t y i n h e r e n t i n t h e s e problems c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e s e d i s p u t e s , t h i s c h a p t e r s u g g e s t s a n o t h e r s o u r c e of d i f f i c u l t y , w h i c h was the i s o l a t i o n of v a r i o u s p a r t i e s as they d e v e l o p e d t h e i r s c i e n t i f i c p o s i t i o n s . In p a r t i c u l a r , t h e r e was almost no c o o p e r a t i v e development of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n s which p a r t i e s c o u l d agree would r e s o l v e the s c i e n t i f i c p roblems. Nor was t h e r e any c o o p e r a t i v e forum f o r the r e v i e w of r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s . In Ch a p t e r s 4 and 5 I s h a l l i n d i c a t e where o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o promote c o o r d i n a t e d and c o o p e r a t i v e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and e v a l u a t i o n e x i s t e d , and how they might have been c a p i t a l i z e d upon. ( 5 2 ) CHAPTER 4 SCIENCE IN IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT:  PROBLEMS AND APPROACHES A. I n t r o d u c t i o n . In t h i s c h a p t e r I wish t o d e v e l o p a framework f o r a p p l y i n g s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h t o impact assessment and management d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , and t o i n d i c a t e the approaches t o r e s o l v i n g s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s t h a t emerge from t h e l i t e r a t u r e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management. T h i s w i l l be done t h r o u g h a d i a l o g u e between r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e i n t h e f i e l d and the Utah c a s e , and i n the f o l l o w i n g s t e p s i f i r s t , by c h a r a c t e r i z i n g impact assessment and management problems and i s o l a t i n g t h a t component t o which s c i e n c e can be p r o f i t a b l y a p p l i e d ; then by d i s c r i m i n a t i n g r e s e a r c h from o t h e r approaches t h a t can be used t o r e s o l v e the s c i e n t i f i c a s p e c t s of t h e s e problems; and f i n a l l y by e s t a b l i s h i n g a s e r i e s of g e n e r a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and major a c t i v i t i e s t h r o u g h which t h e e f f o r t s of s c i e n t i s t s and t h o s e who a d m i n i s t e r e n v i r o n m e n t a l management can be i n t e g r a t e d . These major a c t i v i t i e s a r e s c o p i n g , r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , r e s e a r c h , and r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n . Through each of t h e s e s t a g e s I s h a l l i d e n t i f y t he elements of s c i e n t i f i c and management p r a c t i c e which c o n t r i b u t e t o the m i n i m i z a t i o n and r e s o l u t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , t he approach t a k e n t o the problem of r e s o l v i n g s c i e n t i f i c d i s a g r e e m e n t s w i t h i n the impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e has been t o promote "good" s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e ( c f _ B e a n l a n d s and Duinker 1983). I t has been assumed by many of t h e s e a u t h o r s , w i t h n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n s such as H o l l i n g , t h a t i m p r o v i n g the m e t h o d o l o g i c a l u n d e r p i n n i n g s of s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e would r e s o l v e most of t h e d i s a g r e e m e n t s between s c i e n t i s t s . Though I agree w i t h ( 5 3 ) t h e t h r u s t of t h e s e arguments, I c o n c l u d e t h e y a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t , and i n d i c a t e where I b e l i e v e s h o r t c o m i n g s e x i s t i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . I t i s a c e n t r a l assumption of t h i s t h e s i s t h a t impact assessment and e n v i r o n m e n t a l management must be l i n k e d i f they are t o prove e f f e c t i v e — t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e of our knowledge does not n o r m a l l y a l l o w t h e p r e d i c t i o n of i m p a c t s w i t h any c e r t a i n t y , nor t h e advance d e s i g n of c o u n t e r v a i l i n g s t r a t e g i e s . To t a k e two s i m p l e c a s e s : w i t h o u t the I s l a n d Copper m o n i t o r i n g program the i n c r e a s e d metal c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a d j a c e n t t o the t a i l i n g s o u t f a l l would not have been n o t e d , and the r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e e n g i n e e r i n g s o l u t i o n — the measures t a k e n t o a v o i d a i r e n t r a i n m e n t i n the seawater m i x i n g box — would not have been t a k e n ; s i m i l a r l y the l a c k of r e g u l a r b i o a s s a y s would have r e s u l t e d i n the s y n e r g i s t i c t o x i c e f f e c t s of a n o r m a l l y n o n - t o x i c new r e a g e n t b e i n g l e f t u n d i s c o v e r e d . In an u n c e r t a i n n a t u r a l w o r l d where human v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s a re not c o n s t a n t , a d a p t a b i l i t y and f l e x i b i l i t y a r e n e c e s s a r y . Some i s s u e s have over t i m e proved t o be more or l e s s t r a c t a b l e t o e f f e c t i v e p r e d i c t i o n and a c t i o n i n advance of u n d e s i r a b l e e f f e c t s — the d e s i g n of the water i n t a k e from t h e M a r b l e R i v e r i n such a way t h a t i t n e i t h e r i n t e r f e r r e d w i t h spawning a r e a s or e n t r a i n e d m i g r a t i n g salmon f r y e x e m p l i f i e s t h i s t y p e of s u c c e s s , and i n any w e l l - c o n s i d e r e d f u t u r e marine o u t f a l l , a i r e n t r a i n m e n t s h o u l d a l s o not prove a p r o b l e m — we l e a r n , h o p e f u l l y , from our p r e v i o u s m i s t a k e s . In such t r a c t a b l e c a s e s comprehensive impact assessment p r o c e s s e s a l o n e are e f f i c i e n t and e f f e c t i v e . But o t h e r more complex i s s u e s have proved more r e s i s t a n t t o a c t i o n i n advance. The Utah c h r o n o l o g y and l i s t of s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s p r o v i d e ready examples of t h i s s o r t . I t i s i n p a r t t h e s e s i t u a t i o n s where some method of l i n k i n g impact assessment t o on-going e n v i r o n m e n t a l management must be a v a i l a b l e . (54) B. C h a r a c t e r i z i n g Impact Assessment and Management Problems. In t h i s s e c t i o n I wish t o b r i n g t o l i g h t some f e a t u r e s of a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e w h i c h , though they are p r e s e n t i n a l l s c i e n t i f i c a c t i v i t y (see Chapter 5), a r e e x a c e r b a t e d i n t h e s e s i t u a t i o n s . Impact assessment and management i s g e n e r a l l y some u n c o m f o r t a b l e c o m b i n a t i o n of complex and u n c e r t a i n s c i e n c e , d i s p u t e s over e n v i r o n m e n t a l and s o c i a l v a l u e s , and c o n f l i c t s over the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of the development. At the same t i m e , c o n t r o l of t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s and of the a c c e s s t o and a n a l y s i s of i n f o r m a t i o n i s p o t e n t i a l l y or i n f a c t u n e v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d . And f i n a l l y , t h e p r o c e s s i n which impact assessment and management s c i e n c e i s embedded i s s u b j e c t t o complex demands and y e t i s o f t e n i n f l e x i b l e . B eanlands and D u i n k e r have d e s c r i b e d t h i s c o n t e x t i n which s c i e n c e must o p e r a t e ! Any s u b s t a n t i a l u p g r a d i n g of the s c i e n t i f i c q u a l i t y of e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management i s t o some degree c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e l a c k of common p e r s p e c t i v e among the p a r t i c i p a t i n g groups. From a s c i e n t i f i c p e r s p e c t i v e , the b a s i c dilemma i s t h a t e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment i s the r e s u l t of p u b l i c p r e s s u r e and p o l i t i c a l m o t i v a t i o n ; i t s o r i g i n s cannot be t r a c e d back t o e i t h e r t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s or o u t p u t s of s c i e n c e . T h e r e f o r e , at one end of the spectrum are the government a d m i n i s t r a t o r s who tend t o see e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment as t h e f u l f i l l m e n t of the r e q u i r e d p r o c e d u r e s or g u i d e l i n e s . At the o t h e r extreme a r e the r e s e a r c h s c i e n t i s t s who become i n v o l v e d i n t h e development and r e v i e w of impact assessment documents but o f t e n doubt whether i t i s an a c c e p t a b l e forum i n which t o r i g o r o u s l y a p p l y the s c i e n t i f i c method. From an i n d u s t r i a l p e r s p e c t i v e , impact assessment i s t i e d d i r e c t l y t o p r o j e c t a p p r o v a l and l i c e n s i n g . Caught i n t h e m i d d l e are the c o n s u l t a n t s who are e x p e c t e d t o p r a c t i c e good s c i e n c e i n a p o l i t i c a l l y m o t i v a t e d system (1983:2) A l t h o u g h I d i s a g r e e w i t h the l a c k of i n f l u e n c e of p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l f a c t o r s which Beanlands and Duinker presume f o r o t h e r a r e a s of s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e , t h i s s t atement i n d i c a t e s the c o m p l e x i t y of demands p l a c e d on the impact assessment and management p r o c e s s — demands which o r i g i n a t e o u t s i d e of the normal c o n f i n e s of s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e . I t i s i n p a r t t h e s e c o n f l i c t i n g demands which r e s u l t i n e x a c e r b a t e d l e v e l s of d i s p u t e i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l a p p l i e d s c i e n c e . (55) Three forms of c o n f l i c t have been i d e n t i f i e d as o p e r a t i n g i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l p l a n n i n g c o n t e x t s . These are c o g n i t i v e , v a l u e , and i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t s (Lord e_t a]_ 1979: Dorcey and Thompson 1983). T h i s i s a c rude c l a s s i f i c a t i o n (as w i l l be seen f o r c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t when the s c i e n t i f i c method i s d i s c u s s e d ) , but one which p r o v i d e s a s t a r t i n g p o i n t . As t h e s e c o n f l i c t s have, at l e a s t c o n c e p t u a l l y , d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s and n a t u r e s , Lord e_t a l _ have s u g g e s t e d t h a t d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between them and u s i n g c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n t e c h n i q u e s t h a t are a p p r o p r i a t e t o each may i n c r e a s e t h e chance of f i n d i n g s o l u t i o n s t o the s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s embedded i n t h e s e c o n f l i c t s . The e x t e n t t o which t h e s e c o n f l i c t s a r e i n f a c t i n t e r w o v e n d e t e r m i n e s the d i f f i c u l t y of a c h i e v i n g t h i s s e p a r a t i o n . V a l u e and i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t s form a c o n t e x t w i t h i n which c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t i s e x p r e s s e d . Though t h e s e c o n f l i c t s cannot be e n t i r e l y r e s o l v e d t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n or p r o d u c t i o n of knowledge of t h e n a t u r a l w o r l d , and must i n s t e a d be d e a l t w i t h t h r o u g h a p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s , I w i l l l a t e r m a i n t a i n t h a t t h e y do a f f e c t t h e d i r e c t i o n s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s t a k e and the c r e d i b i l i t y which i s g r a n t e d t o the knowledge r e s u l t i n g from s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h . They w i l l t h e r e f o r e be d i s c u s s e d b r i e f l y . C o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t , which i n the form of s c i e n t i f i c c o n t r o v e r s y i s the s u b j e c t of t h i s t h e s i s , w i l l be a n a l y z e d more i n t e n s i v e l y . V a lue c o n f l i c t s c o n c e r n the d i f f e r i n g a ssessments of d e s i r a b i l i t y , worth or u t i l i t y which i n d i v i d u a l s or groups a t t a c h t o competing ends (Lor d et a l 1979:12). In the Utah c o n t r o v e r s y v a l u e c o n f l i c t s were e v i d e n t t h r o u g h o u t . For i n s t a n c e , i t i s c l e a r from SPEC ' S s u b m i s s i o n t o the P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Branch and from t h e i r l e t t e r s t o DFF ( f i l e 34-3-R2) t h a t t h i s group b e l i e v e d ( 5 6 ) t h a t t h e r e s p e c t i v e v a l u e s t o be p l a c e d on p r o f i t t h r o u g h m i n e r a l p r o d u c t i o n , employment at the m i n e s i t e , l o s s of b e n t h i c h a b i t a t , the a e s t h e t i c s of t u r b i d s eawater and s e d i m e n t a t i o n , and t h e r i s k s of t o x i c c h e m i c a l p o l l u t i o n were v e r y d i f f e r e n t from t h o s e h e l d by t h e government r e v i e w panel and the proponent (see Lucas and Moore 1973 f o r a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e s e v a l u e p o s i t i o n s ) . W i t h i n the s c i e n t i f i c community, the i m p l i c i t emphasis p l a c e d by G o y e t t e and N e l s o n (1977) on s p e c i e s abundance and d i v e r s i t y i n b e n t h i c communities r e p r e s e n t e d a v a l u e p o s i t i o n not s h a r e d , f o r i n s t a n c e , by a member of the UBC agency, who ( i n an a r t i c l e e x p r e s s i n g a committment t o t h e "maintenance and development of a v i a b l e m i n i n g i n d u s t r y " ) i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s impact was " m i n i m a l " ( P o l i n g 1979). Note t h a t the a r e a l e x t e n t and d i r e c t e f f e c t s of b e n t h i c s m o t h e r i n g were agreed upon and t h e r e f o r e not r e a l l y t h e p o i n t of c o n t e n t i o n — the d i s p u t e p e r t a i n e d t o the v a l u e which ought t o be a t t a c h e d t o such e f f e c t s . I n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t r e s u l t s from d i s a g r e e m e n t s over t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of the c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of the development and management of e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s . What i s c r i t i c a l t o the d i s t i n c t i o n between v a l u e and i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t i s t h a t even where i n d i v i d u a l s or groups agree w i t h the v a l u e s a development embodies, they may be unhappy about i t s p e r s o n a l e f f e c t s on them. C o n s i d e r t h i s f a n c i f u l d i a l o g u e ! "I agree w i t h t h e v a l u e s a t t a c h e d t o employment i n m i n i n g , and I have no o b j e c t i o n t o i t s p r o f i t a b i l i t y , and t h e s e b e n e f i t s outweigh the u n f o r t u n a t e p r o d u c t s of mines such as p o t e n t i a l l y t o x i c t a i l i n g s . . . . but j u s t don't dump them i n my i n l e t ! " . Such p o s i t i o n s a r e common amongst t h o s e who i n g e n e r a l s u p p o r t n u c l e a r power, s a y , but a r e f a c e d w i t h the p r o s p e c t of a g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t y or waste d i s p o s a l s i t e b e i n g p l a c e d a d j a c e n t t o t h e i r community. At Utah t h e r e l a t i v e absence of s e t t l e m e n t i n the area made t h e s e s o r t s of d i s a g r e e m e n t s l e s s e v i d e n t , ( 5 7 ) however o t h e r forms of i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t o p e r a t e d w i t h i n government a g e n c i e s and among s c i e n t i s t s who were drawn i n t o the c o n t r o v e r s y . C o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t o c c u r s as a r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n c e s over f a c t s or u n d e r s t a n d i n g , and can t h e r e f o r e be l o c a t e d at e i t h e r t h e o b s e r v a t i o n a l or t h e o r e t i c a l l e v e l . For i n s t a n c e , T.W. Beak's 1971 s u r v e y i n d i c a t e d a s p a r s e benthos i n Rupert I n l e t ; as a r e s u l t of i t s s u r v e y s , EPS d i s a g r e e d ( G o y e t t e and Nelson 1977). The i m p l i c i t d i s a g r e e m e n t between t h e UBC agency and EPS over the i m p o r t a n c e of the benthos t o o t h e r e l e m e n t s of Rupert I n l e t ' s f ood c h a i n was p r e d o m i n a n t l y t h e o r e t i c a l , f o r no o b s e r v a t i o n s e x i s t e d on which t o gauge t h e i r c o n t e n t i o n s ( e g . , stomach c o n t e n t s a n a l y s e s ) . Note, however, t h a t t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l i s s u e - - t h e i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s of b e n t h i c o b l i t e r a t i o n on o t h e r p a r t s of t h e food c h a i n — might have been h e a v i l y i n f l u e n c e d by the v a l u e p o s i t i o n s of the d i s p u t a n t s . The t h e o r e t i c a l approaches of p a r t i c i p a n t s can t h e r e f o r e become c e n t r a l f o c a l p o i n t s f o r d i s a g r e e m e n t . The p o t e n t i a l f o r c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t i s a f u n c t i o n of the degree of c o m p l e x i t y , r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y which s u r r o u n d s impact assessment and management s i t u a t i o n s — i t i s a f u n c t i o n of o p e r a t i n g at the edge of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. C o m p l e x i t y i n impact assessment and management s i t u a t i o n s depends on a range of f a c t o r s ( H o l l i n g et_ a l _ 1978: 60-66). An u n d o u b t a b l y i n c o m p l e t e l i s t of t h e s e i s : 1. t h e number of v a r i a b l e s , and t h e c o m p l e x i t y of the i n t e r a c t i o n s between them, which a r e r e q u i r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y d e s c r i b e the f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s of a dynamic system; 2. the number of i n t e r v e n i n g a c t i o n s (as a r e s u l t of development and management) which a re l i k e l y t o a f f e c t t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l system; ( 5 8 ) 3. the number of effects which are perceived to be critical by the assessors; or in other words the number of "valued ecosystem components" (Beanlands and Duinker 1983i8) (and note that the more elements of the natural world that are seen as of value, the more the perceived complexity of the natural world increases); 4. the spatial extent and interconnection of the affected ecosystem, that is, of the scale of the development and of the environment which it perturbs; 5. and the period over which perturbations occur and impacts must be predicted, and in particular the possibility that effects will be unevenly distributed in time and space (Hoi ling et_ al_ 1978s 28-29). A final points complex systems resist controlled experiment and the creation of replicabi1ity which underlies science; though science does not require simplicity, it is easier to apply when they exist. Complexity does not of itself preclude understanding the natural world or the prediction of future events, however. Science successfully operates in many complex areas. But where uncertainty is also present, the prospect of cognitive conflict is exacerbated (indeed, Holling et aj_ have identified uncertainty as the central problem C1978si93). Like complexity, uncertainty is multi-faceted. Uncertainty can be classified in three ways: 1. Stochastic or random uncertainty; in this case both the central tendency (eg., mean) and variability (eg., standard deviation) of events are known, but outcomes can only be described probabalistically, and this uncertainty cannot be reduced through research. In this instance both the relationship between relevant functional variables and the central tendency and distribution of parameter values are known. For instance, the variation in the spatial distribution of benthic fauna and flora may ( 5 9 ) be v e r y l a r g e — t h i s makes t h e i r use as an i n d i c a t o r of e f f e c t s e x p e n s i v e , due t o the l e v e l of s a m p l i n g e f f o r t which must be un d e r t a k e n t o d i s c r i m i n a t e changes r e s u l t i n g from e n v i r o n m e n t a l p e r t u r b a t i o n from n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y . 2. Parameter u n c e r t a i n t y ; where the f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s a r e known, but not the par a m e t e r s (eg., c e n t r a l tendency or v a r i a b i l i t y ) of t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . T h i s form of u n c e r t a i n t y may be reduced through r e s e a r c h but i s o f t e n case s p e c i f i c . At Rupert I n l e t t h e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s g o v e r n i n g v e r t i c a l m i x i n g at Q u a t s i n o Narrows a re now r e l a t i v e l y w e l l u n d e r s t o o d . However t o p r e d i c t v e r t i c a l t u r b u l e n c e would r e q u i r e knowledge of the pa r a m e t e r s of a v a r i e t y of v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t i n g d e n s i t y , such as s a l i n i t y and t e m p e r a t u r e , t h r o u g h o u t t h e water column, both i n R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t s and Q u a t s i n o Sound. The t h e o r e t i c a l knowledge i s u s e l e s s w i t h o u t t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s . 3- I g n o r a n c e ; where not even t h e r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s and f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e known. T h i s form of u n c e r t a i n t y might i t s e l f be a r e s u l t of c o m p l e x i t y , where f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e r e l a t i v e l y i m p e n e t r a b l e ; or of l a c k of p r i o r i n t e r e s t , where t h e knowledge had p r e v i o u s l y been u n v a l u e d , and t h e r e f o r e not s u b j e c t t o i n s p e c t i o n ( b e n t h i c e c o l o g y was, i n 1970, a good example of t h i s , deep benthos b e i n g i n v i s i b l e , e x p e n s i v e t o s t u d y , and not h a v i n g apparent p e r t i n e n c e t o man's use of the e n v i r o n m e n t ) ; or f i n a l l y of the ver y n a t u r e of the e v e n t , i n t h a t i t has not been e n c o u n t e r e d b e f o r e ( b e n t h i c o b l i t e r a t i o n i n i t i a t e d by human a c t i v i t i e s on t h e s c a l e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h Utah had not p r e v i o u s l y o c c u r r e d , f o r i n s t a n c e ) . T h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of u n c e r t a i n t y p a r a l l e l s one o f f e r e d by H o l l i n g e_t a l (1976:133-135), but o f f e r s g r e a t e r p r e c i s i o n . The c o n c l u s i o n s a re c l e a r : (60) some forms of u n c e r t a i n t y a r e r e d u c a b l e by r e s e a r c h ( t y p e 2 and e l e m e n t s of t y p e 3 ) , but where outcomes are s t o c h a s t i c ( t y p e 1 ) , or have never been e n c o u n t e r e d (the f i n a l form of t y p e 3 ) , o n l y e x p e r i e n c e ( w i t h a l l i t s a t t e n d a n t r i s k s ) can p r o v i d e an answer. Thus Hoi 1 i n g et_ al_'s c o n c l u s i o n s c o n c e r n i n g " a d a p t i v e e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment and management"— t h a t i s , r e s p o n s e s t o t h e p e r t u r b a t i o n of an ecosystem t h r o u g h development o f t e n cannot be p r e d i c t e d i n advance, and must t h e r e f o r e be m o n i t o r e d and a d a p t i v e l y managed as knowledge about the e f f e c t s becomes a v a i l a b l e . T h i s approach i s e x p l i c i t l y r i s k y , f o r i t r e l i e s i n any p a r t i c u l a r case on an assumed p o s i t i v e t r a d e - o f f between the time stream of b e n e f i t s from i n c r e a s e s i n i n f o r m a t i o n v e r s u s the l o s s e s i n economic y i e l d t h a t a r e i n f l i c t e d by a t t a i n i n g such knowledge ( H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s 1980), and t h e r e i s no g u a r a n t e e t h a t m o n i t o r e d i m p a c t s w i l l prove manageable. In t h e s e s i t u a t i o n s m i n i m i z i n g c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t and r e s o l v i n g s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s i s c h a l l e n g i n g , f o r i g n o r a n c e makes many t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n s t e n a b l e . However, i t i s at l e a s t p o s s i b l e t o d e v e l o p h y p o t h e s e s about t h e r i s k s t h a t development might i n v o l v e , and not c o n f u s e t h e s e r i s k s based on s c i e n t i f i c u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h t h e o t h e r forms of c o n f l i c t c o n s i d e r e d e a r l i e r . Where c o m p l e x i t y and u n c e r t a i n t y are p e r v a s i v e elements of our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s , then knowledge must be c r e a t e d i f c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t s a re t o be r e s o l v e d . The p r o d u c t i o n of d e s c r i p t i v e and  t h e o r e t i c a l knowledge of the n a t u r a l w o r l d must t h e r e f o r e be a key element of  impact assessment and management. T h e r e f o r e r e s e a r c h i s c e n t r a l t o e f f e c t i v e a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e . C. The Impact Assessment and Management P r o c e s s . At t h i s p o i n t I b r i e f y c o n s i d e r a g e n e r a l i z e d impact assessment and ( 6 1 ) management p r o c e s s . F i g u r e 4.1 p r o v i d e s an o v e r v i e w of impact assessment and management d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g (see S k u t s c h and Flowerdew [1976] f o r a d i s c u s s i o n of impact i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n , and comparison i n the assessment p r o c e s s , Dooley [1979] d i s c u s s e s a framework f o r impact i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , and Westman [1985] f o r a more comprehensive approach s i m i l a r t o my d i a g r a m ) . A l t h o u g h F i g u r e 4.1 has been d e s c r i b e d i n a l i n e a r f a s h i o n , t h i s i s d e c e p t i v e — i n f a c t the p r o c e s s has become p r o g r e s s i v e l y more i t e r a t i v e as i t has e v o l v e d from an e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n s t r a t e g y t o an e n v i r o n m e n t a l or r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g e x e r c i s e (Beanlands and Du i n k e r 1983:21). The p r o c e s s b e g i n s when a p r o j e c t or p o l i c y i s i n i t i a t e d . T h i s i n i t i a t i v e might be as d i v e r s e as a p p l i c a t i o n f o r a mine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l p e r m i t , or a p p r o v a l of r e g i o n a l o i l e x p l o r a t i o n , or a change i n f i s h e r i e s management p o l i c y . In each of t h e s e c a s e s the i m p a c t s r e q u i r e p r e d i c t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n , and comparison between a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n s of the p r o j e c t or p o l i c y . From t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a d e c i s i o n must be made on p r o c e e d i n g w i t h t h e i n i t i a t i v e w i t h or w i t h o u t a t t a c h e d management c o n d i t i o n s such as m o n i t o r i n g and p e r i o d i c r e v i e w . Now t o c o n s i d e r each of t h e s e elements more c a r e f u l l y : impact assessment b e g i n s w i t h two forms of s c o p i n g (c_f_ Beanlands and Du i n k e r 1983:18), t h a t i s , a p r e l i m i n a r y n a r r o w i n g or p r i o r i z i n g of the r e l e v a n t i s s u e s and q u e s t i o n s which must be a d d r e s s e d . The f i r s t form of s c o p i n g i s s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l — i t a t t e m p t s t o i d e n t i f y t h e i s s u e s of p u b l i c c o n c e r n i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r c a s e , p o s s i b l y t h r o u g h p r e l i m i n a r y p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , or p o s s i b l y as p a r t of a l e g i s l a t i v e p r o c e s s ( f o r i n s t a n c e , the B.C. l e g i s a t u r e and c a b i n e t d e t e r m i n e the r e g u l a t i o n s under which the Waste Management Act i s implemented, and t h i s i s i n e f f e c t p a r t of the s c o p i n g p r o c e s s ) . S c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g i n v o l v e s d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the e x t e n t t o which the i s s u e s i d e n t i f i e d ( 6 2 ) Figure 4.1. An I d e a l i z e d Impact Assessment and Management Process. PROJECT OR POLICY INITIATIVE I SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCOPING I SCIENTIFIC SCOPING [Confidence L i m i t s Acceptable? £ IMPACT EVALUATION -^ <No) j ± P r e l i m i n a r y Impact P r e d i c t i o n I* Attach Confidence L i m i t s to P r e d i c t i o n s  RESEARCH DESIGN Baseline Study Required? RESEARCH CONSIDERATION OF ALTERNATIVES? IMPACT PREDICTION .YesJ IPROJECT DECISION} IMPACT COMPARISON Other P r o j e c t Considerations i ) ( f  Choice of A l t e r n a t i v e s U<GO) 4 MANAGEMENT CONDITIONS?|—H^NO) PROCEED Determine Management Responses to Results Obtained Through Monitoring MONITORING PROGRAM DESIGN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT RESEARCH EVALUATION USE OF RESULTS IN FUTURE PROJECTS (63) d u r i n g s o c i a l s c o p i n g can be a d d r e s s e d s c i e n t i f i c a l l y — can the i m p a c t s be p r e d i c t e d or are they amenable t o s t u d y ? These i n t e r d e p e n d e n t s c o p i n g e x e r c i s e s p a r a l l e l a common d i s t i n c t i o n between s o c i a l and s c i e n t i f i c e lements of the impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e i G h i s e l i n ( 1 962), w h i l e r e c o g n i z i n g an u l t i m a t e i n s e p a r a b i l i t y , d i s t i n g u i s h e d between s u b j e c t i v e judgements and o b j e c t i v e e v i d e n c e ; Walker and Norton (1982) s i m i l a r l y s e p a r a t e d n o r m a t i v e and p o s i t i v e a s p e c t s of " s c r e e n i n g " ; and Sharma et a l _ (1976) d e l i n e a t e d two major components of the p r o c e s s , impact a c c e p t a b i l i t y and impact s i g n i f i c a n c e ( i n a s t a t i s t i c a l s e n s e ) . The next number of s t e p s i n v o l v e impact p r e d i c t i o n . Impacts may be p r e d i c t e d e i t h e r q u a l i t a t i v e l y or q u a n t i t a t i v e l y depending on the a v a i l a b i l i t y of d a t a and r e l e v a n t t h e o r e t i c a l knowledge, and c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s a s s i g n e d t o t h e s e p r e d i c t i o n s ( P a i n e 1981 d i s c u s s e s the i m p o r t a n c e of not m i s r e p r e s e n t i n g the r e l i a b i l i t y of p r e d i c t i o n s — i t i s i n t h i s sense I r e f e r t o " c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s " , r a t h e r than the n a r r o w l y s t a t i s t i c a l o n e). Depending on t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y of t h e s e c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s (and t h e degree of c o n f i d e n c e r e q u i r e d i s i t s e l f a s o c i a l d e c i s i o n ) , t h e p r o c e s s may e i t h e r p r o c e e d w i t h impact e v a l u a t i o n , or th r o u g h r e s e a r c h attempt t o reduc e t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s t h a t a t t e n d t h e s e p r e d i c t i o n s . Impact e v a l u a t i o n i n c l u d e s t h i s a s p e c t of r i s k assessment. Impact e v a l u a t i o n i s an e s s e n t i a l l y p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l p r o c e s s which a s s i g n s s o c i a l v a l u e s t o the outcomes of any g i v e n p r o j e c t ; i f a l t e r n a t i v e p r o j e c t d e s i g n s a r e a l s o t o be c o n s i d e r e d then impact comparison between p r o j e c t s o c c u r s . In c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h i s e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment economic and s o c i a l impact assessments may a l s o be c o n d u c t e d , and t h e s e as w e l l as p o l i t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s w i l l i n f l u e n c e the c h o i c e of a l t e r n a t i v e s . F i n a l l y a d e c i s i o n t o proceed or not i s made, and a s e t of c o n d i t i o n s a t t a c h e d t o g u i d e f u r t h e r management of t h i s or o t h e r s i m i l a r (64) p r o j e c t s . I f a d a p t i v e management i s t o be used then a r e s e a r c h d e s i g n which p r o v i d e s r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o managers must be agreed t o , the r e s e a r c h implemented c o n c u r r e n t l y w i t h the p r o j e c t or p o l i c y , and mechanisms e s t a b l i s h e d t o e f f e c t i v e l y use t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i n making subsequent d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the p r o j e c t or p o l i c y . F i n a l l y , at v a r i o u s s t a g e s the p r o c e s s must be e v a l u a t e d , both i n terms of the v a l u e of i t s s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l component, and i t s s c i e n t i f i c one. T h i s i s a s k e t c h y o v e r v i e w of the impact assessment and management p r o c e s s which does not i n c l u d e , f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p of an assessment of a d i s c r e t e p r o j e c t t o o t h e r s i m i l a r p r o j e c t s or t o a number of p r o j e c t s each of which a f f e c t s a p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n . And each s e t of i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements v a r i e s c o n s i d e r a b l y on the theme. Vet i t p r o v i d e s a framework i n t o which we may s l o t the s c i e n t i f i c component of t h e s e p r o c e s s e s . I t a l s o makes c l e a r t h e o v e r - r i d i n g i m p o r t a n c e of s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l components of impact assessment and management i n f i r s t e s t a b l i s h i n g the g o a l s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l management and i n s u b s e q u e n t l y e v a l u a t i n g the a c c e p t a b i l i t y of i m p a c t s which s c i e n t i s t s have a s s i s t e d i n i d e n t i f y i n g . No r e f i n e m e n t of the s c i e n t i f i c components of e n v i r o n m e n t a l management w i l l improve a p r o c e s s where t h e s e o t h e r components do not o p e r a t e e f f e c t i v e l y . D. The S c i e n t i f i c Component of Impact Assessment and Management. E b e r h a r d t (1976a:30) d i s t i n g u i s h e d between two forms of impact assessment s t u d y , the f i r s t of which i n c l u d e d "an a p p r a i s a l of p o s s i b l e or " p r o b a b l e " e f f e c t s and l i t t l e or no a c t u a l f i e l d work" and the second comprehensive r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s . In our e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n of an impact assessment and management p r o c e s s i t emerged t h a t c h o i c e between t h e s e two s t r a t e g i e s c o u l d be made at v a r i o u s d e c i s i o n p o i n t s depending on t h e p e r c e i v e d t r a d e - o f f s between t h e q u a l i t y of e x i s t i n g knowledge, t h e l i k e l i h o o d of p r o d u c i n g b e t t e r knowledge, t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p r o c e e d i n g w i t h o u t b e t t e r i n f o r m a t i o n , and the c o s t s of p r o d u c i n g i n f o r m a t i o n . The f i r s t s t r a t e g y , of t r u n c a t e d s t u d y and d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g based on e a s i l y a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n o r g a n i z e d by methods such as c h e c k l i s t s or m a t r i c e s , i s what many have meant by "impact assessment" (see S k u t s c h and Flowerdew 1976 f o r an a r c h e t y p a l e xample). Though such approaches have u t i l i t y both i n s i m p l e assessments and i n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y s t a g e s of more complex and u n c e r t a i n ones, i t i s t h o s e of the second s o r t , where r e s e a r c h c o m p r i s e s a c e n t r a l f e a t u r e , which form the f o c u s of my c u r r e n t i n t e r e s t . T a ble 4.1 p r o v i d e s an o v e r v i e w , from the i n c e p t i o n of a p r o j e c t t o i t s c o n c l u s i o n and beyond, of the framework I have adopted t o o r g a n i z e my comments on i n t e g r a t i n g r e s e a r c h i n t o impact assessment and management. I t p r o v i d e s , under t h e f o u r major h e a d i n g s of s c o p i n g , r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , r e s e a r c h , and r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n , a s e t of p o s s i b l e a c t i v i t i e s t h a t s c i e n t i s t s and r e s o u r c e managers might draw from t o produce s c i e n t i f i c knowledge which i s u s e f u l t o impact assessment and management d e c i s i o n s . I t i d e a l i s t i c a i 1 y assumes t h a t s c i e n t i s t s , managers, and o t h e r a c t o r s i n t e r a c t r e g u l a r l y — the s c i e n t i s t ' s a c t i v i t i e s and the manager's a c t i v i t i e s a re not c o n c e i v e d as m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e . T a b l e 4.1 p r e s e n t s a g e n e r a l i z e d s e t of a c t i v i t i e s of which a l l or o n l y some p a r t might be used. For i n s t a n c e , i f s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g r e v e a l e d t h a t r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e parameter u n c e r t a i n t y and i g n o r a n c e about a system's r e s p o n s e t o a s e t of w e l l d e f i n e d p e r t u r b a n c e s e x i s t e d , and management s c o p i n g ranked t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s of t h i s p r o j e c t w e l l below o t h e r s i n the r e g i o n , the p r o d u c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge t h r o u g h r e s e a r c h might be a b o r t e d at t h i s s t a g e ( r e v e r t i n g t o E b e r h a r d t ' s f i r s t Table 4 . 1 . Producing S c i e n t i f i c Knowledge for Impact Assessment and Management: A Sequence of Potential A c t i v i t i e s . MAJOR STAGES IN THE EIAM PROCESS SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES MANAGER1S ACTIVITIES SCOPING RESEARCH DESIGN 1. Reconnaissance survey of 1, the natural system. 2. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of pert-urbations and related uncertainties caused 2, by project actions. 3. Generation of appropri- 3. ate theoretical per-spectives based on li t e r a t u r e reviews, preliminary workshops, and 'detailed hindsight' from previous similar . projects. 4. Synthesize the above 5, through conceptual mod-e l l i n g (qualitative) and simulation modelling (quantitative) to produce preliminary impact predic-tions in the form of ^ testable hypotheses. Define information needs which have a s c i e n t i f i c component not presently available. E s t a b l i s h time frames a v a i l -able for s c i e n t i f i c research. Coordinate s c i e n t i f i c compo-of t h i s project with project design, regional, and extra-regional requirements.for similar types of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. Develop terms of reference including provisions for peer review, accountability, f i e l d and l i t e r a t u r e studies, and report format. Identify a l t e r n a t i v e project configuations or operating--procedures which might be assessed through experimental management. Indicate s p e c i f i c points at which the r e s u l t s of research may influence project decisions, T a b l e 4.2. ( C o n t i n u e d ) . MAJOR STAGES SCIENTIFIC A C T I V I T I E S MANAGER'S A C T I V I T I E S RESEARCH DESIGN ( c o n t . ) RESEARCH B a s e l i n e s t u d i e s t o d e t e r m i n e s t o c h a s t i c v a r i a b i l i t y o f t h e s y s -tem and t o r e s o l v e p a r a -m e t e r u n c e r t a i n t i e s and t o p r o v i d e a benchmark f o r m o n i t o r i n g . F i n a l i z e i m p a c t p r e -d i c t i o n s . D e v e l o p m o n i t o r i n g and e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n s . C h o i c e o f t h e f o l l o w i n g : — l a b e x p e r i m e n t — p i l o t s c a l e e x p e r -i m e n t — e x p e r i m e n t a l man-agement E v a l u a t e i t e r a t i v e l y 9. t h r o u g h o u t .using work-shops o r co m m i t t e e s i n v o l -v i n g managers and s c i e n - .. -t i s t s f r o m w i t h i n and ... w i t h o u t t h e p r o j e c t team. 10. E x - p o s t workshop t o e v a l u a t e s p e c i f i c f e a t u r e s o f t h e r e s e a r c h ' s a p p l i -c a t i o n t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t and t o s i m i l a r p r o j e c t s . 11. P u b l i c a t i o n i n r e f e r e e d j o u r n a l . 9. RESEARCH EVALUATION C o o r d i n a t e i n t e r j u r i s -d i c t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s i f r e q u i r e d . C o o r d i n a t e m o n i t o r i n g p r o g r a m w i t h p r o p o n e n t , n e g o t i a t e a d d i t i o n a l s t u d y a s r e q u i r e d , and e s t a b l i s h c o n d i t i o n s f o r a d a p t i v e management. E v a l u a t e t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c o n d i t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f r e l e v a n t s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e dge. (67) a p p r o a c h ) . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , r e s e a r c h d e s i g n might f o c u s on a s e t of l a b o r a t o r y e x p e r i m e n t s t o de v e l o p knowledge of s p e c i f i c f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e l i e v e d t o c o n t r o l a n a t u r a l s ystem, w h i l e b a s e l i n e s t u d i e s were d i r e c t e d at s p e c i f i c parameter u n c e r t a i n t i e s . In such a case no m o n i t o r i n g might t a k e p l a c e . F i n a l l y , a major development w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t r e g i o n a l i m p l i c a t i o n s and g e n e r a l i z a b l e s c i e n t i f i c c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o make c o u l d i n c l u d e almost a l l of t h e s t e p s i n d i c a t e d . I s h a l l d i s c u s s the f o u r s t a g e s of s c i e n t i f i c i n p u t i n t o the e n v i r o n m e n t a l management p r o c e s s i n the next s e c t i o n . The e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t s a number of more g e n e r a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s which can be l o o s e l y c l a s s i f i e d i n t o t h o s e r e l e v a n t t o the a c t i v i t i e s of s c i e n t i s t s and t o the p r o c e s s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l management by which s c i e n c e i s i n t e g r a t e d i n t o impact assessment and management. These g e n e r a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s f o c u s e i t h e r on i n t e r a c t i o n s between s c i e n t i s t s and e n v i r o n m e n t a l managers, or r e l a t e more d i r e c t l y t o the management s i d e of the problem. Dorcey and H a l l (19B1) have r e l a t e d t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h t o impact a ssessment, p l a n n i n g , and management i n t h e F r a s e r R i v e r e s t u a r y , f o c u s s i n g p a r t i c u l a r l y on the s e t t i n g of r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s . They d e s c r i b e d the e a r l i e r use of impact assessments i n t h i s p l a n n i n g and management p r o c e s s as r e a c t i v e and based on u n i d i m e n s i o n a l p o l i c y a n a l y s i s which d e f i n e d o n l y s i n g l e o b j e c t i v e s and s i n g l e means t o a c h i e v e them. In a d d i t i o n , the c o l l e c t i o n of d e s c r i p t i v e knowledge dominated the p r o c e s s i n the absence of f u n c t i o n a l knowledge (models l i n k i n g v a r i a b l e s i n f o r m a l ways), and d e c i s i o n making was u n c o o r d i n a t e d (such as s i n g l e agency p e r m i t t i n g , l e a s i n g , or l i c e n s i n g ) r a t h e r than i n t e g r a t e d t h r o u g h r e f e r r a l p r o c e s s e s or i n t e r - a g e n c y (68) committees. T h e i r s o l u t i o n s t o i n c o r p o r a t i n g e f f e c t i v e r e s e a r c h i n t o assessment, p l a n n i n g , and management i n v o l v e d t 1. d e f i n i n g , t o t h e e x t e n t p o s s i b l e , t h e i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d t o make management d e c i s i o n s i n advance; 2. d e t e r m i n i n g whether or not i t was a v a i l a b l e ; 3. making the b e s t use of a v a i l a b l e knowledge, and d e t e r m i n i n g the most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e r e s e a r c h programmes t o produce new knowledge; 4. s h i f t i n g towards the p r o d u c t i o n and use of f u n c t i o n a l knowledge; 5. e x p a n d i n g p o l i c y a n a l y s i s t h r o u g h i n t e r - a g e n c y i n t e g r a t i o n t o accommodate m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s and a range of means t o a c h i e v e them; and, 6. i n t e g r a t i n g t h e use of i n f o r m a t i o n i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g by c o o r d i n a t i n g the a c t i v i t i e s of government a g e n c i e s , independent g r o u p s , and i n d u s t r y t h r o u g h b e t t e r use of a spectrum of t e c h n i q u e s from r e f e r r a l s or g u i d e l i n e s t o t a s k f o r c e s or committees. In t h e i r f o r m u l a t i o n s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h was t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s of d e t e r m i n i n g o b j e c t i v e s , o u t l i n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s , d e f i n i n g the i n f o r m a t i o n needed t o choose between them, and e s t a b l i s h i n g p r i o r i t i e s f o r u s e f u l r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s based on the c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t h e i n f o r m a t i o n which might be e x p e c t e d t o be p r o v i d e d ( r e c o g n i z i n g , of c o u r s e , the u n c e r t a i n t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p r e d i c t i n g i n advance the outcomes of r e s e a r c h ) . Impact assessment was t o be an i n t e g r a l p a r t of t h i s l o n g - t e r m management s t r a t e g y , not a o n e - t i m e , u n g e n e r a l i z a b l e attempt t o produce i n f o r m a t i o n f o r a d e c i s i o n a l r e a d y e f f e c t i v e l y t a k e n . Such an approach i m p l i e s t h a t d e c i s i o n s t o move from an i n i t i a l s t e p of impact a p p r a i s a l towards r e s e a r c h t h a t i n c l u d e s m o n i t o r i n g and a d a p t i v e management are s t r a t e g i c , and ought not be t a k e n i n e v e r y c a s e . T h i s c o n t r a d i c t s p o s i t i o n s t a k e n by Rosenberg and Resh (1981s618) and Beanlands and D uinker (1983:98) t h a t would r e q u i r e m o n i t o r i n g of e v e r y r e v i e w e d p r o j e c t . P r i n c i p l e s of (69) a l l o c a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y have a p l a c e i n a s s i g n i n g management r e s o u r c e s , as w e l l as n a t u r a l ones! Other s h o r t c o m i n g s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment and management c o n c e r n th e i n t e g r a t i o n of s c i e n c e i n t o t h e p r o c e s s . E f f o r d (1976:29) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t time c o n t r a i n t s a r e o f t e n a r t i f i c i a l , and t h a t even l i m i t e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e needs of r e s e a r c h e r s by managers and p r o p o n e n t s would improve the i n t e g r a t i o n of r e s e a r c h w i t h development s c h e d u l e s ( i t might be added t h a t r e s e a r c h e r s might r e c o g n i s e t h e time c o n s t a i n t s under which e n v i r o n m e n t a l managers o p e r a t e as w e l l ) . The i n t e g r a t i o n of the Utah p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l b a s e l i n e s t u d y w i t h o t h e r p r o j e c t d e c i s i o n s i s a p e r t i n e n t example. Only seven months were a v a i l a b l e t o c o l l e c t t h i s d a t a , yet n e g o t i a t i o n s had been i n i t i a t e d t h r e e y e a r s e a r l i e r , and a d e c i s i o n t o i n c l u d e m o n i t o r i n g as a p r o j e c t c o n d i t i o n had been t a k e n two y e a r s e a r l i e r . G i v en t h a t one year of s t u d y would be r e q u i r e d t o m i n i m a l l y e s t i m a t e s e a s o n a l v a r i a b i l i t y , and p o s s i b l y t h r e e y e a r s t o c o n s t r u c t an o c e a n o g r a p h i c b a s e l i n e (D. G o y e t t e , p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) , u n n e c e s s a r y f a i l u r e t o a c t sooner p r e j u d i c e d the v a l u e of t h i s b a s e l i n e . In some c i r c u m s t a n c e s assessments have been t r e a t e d as 't o k e n i s m ' by p r i v a t e and p u b l i c d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s ( S c h i n d l e r 1976), w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t recommendations have not been used i n d e c i s i o n s on e i t h e r p r o c e e d i n g w i t h or d e s i g n i n g t h e p r o j e c t (Rosenberg and Resh 1981:609-614; Beanlands and Du i n k e r 1983; H o l l i n g et aj_ 1978:2). C o o r d i n a t i o n of e f f o r t s between s i m i l a r p r o j e c t s or at r e g i o n a l l e v e l s has been l a c k i n g , r e s u l t i n g i n n e e d l e s s d u p l i c a t i o n of assessments or f a i l u r e s t o c o n s i d e r the c u m u l a t i v e r e g i o n a l i m p a c t s of c o n c u r r e n t developments. The c o o r d i n a t i o n of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s , the q u a l i t y of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , and mutual a g g r e g a t i o n of e x p e r i e n c e have (70) been slowed by d i f f i c u l t a c c e s s t o impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e , by the poor q u a l i t y of r e p o r t s and the f a i l u r e t o p u b l i s h i n r e f e r e e d j o u r n a l s , and by anonymous a u t h o r s h i p s which don't t h r e a t e n r e p u t a t i o n s i f they are of poor q u a l i t y (Rosenberg and Resh 1981:614). F i n a l l y , and p o s s i b l y most s i g n i f i c a n t l y , t h e m o n i t o r i n g or a u d i t of p r e d i c t i o n s r e s u l t i n g from impact assessment has seldom been a p a r t of the p r o c e s s , w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t r e p l i c a b i l i t y has never been e s t a b l i s h e d , nor a c c o u n t a b i l i t y of the a s s e s s o r ' s p r e d i c t i o n s promoted, nor a d a p t a b i l i t y of the p r o j e c t ' s management encouraged (Beanlands and D u i n k e r 1983:98; Ward 1978; Hoi 1 i n g e t _ a l _ 1978; Rosenberg and Resh 1981:598). These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s l e a d t o the f o l l o w i n g s e t of recommendations. Adequate time frames f o r d e f i n i n g o b j e c t i v e s , d o i n g p r e l i m i n a r y s u r v e y s , d e s i g n i n g and c a r r y i n g out r e s e a r c h , and m o n i t o r i n g and e v a l u a t i n g t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s must be p r o v i d e d f o r , at l e a s t i n t h o s e i n s t a n c e s where t h e p r o d u c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge has been d e t e r m i n e d t o be c r i t i c a l t o a c h i e v i n g the s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s of the p r o j e c t . T h i s r e q u i r e s an i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e s o c i a l and e c o l o g i c a l s c o p i n g proposed by Beanlands and D u i n k e r (1983:66-71), i n t e g r a t i o n of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s w i t h p r o j e c t development s c h e d u l e s (Rosenberg and Resh 1981:613), i n t e g r a t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c and management p e r s o n e l i n s t u d y d e s i g n ( H a i l i n g et a l 1978; Dorcey and H a l l 1981:55-68), l i n k i n g c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h programmes t o the i n f o r m a t i o n needs of a n t i c i p a t e d f u t u r e d e c i s i o n s ; and l i n k i n g of the t i m i n g of r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s and of c r i t i c a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . Due t o the v a r i a t i o n i n a f f e c t e d e n v i r o n m e n t s and t h e number of t y p e s of developments which might a f f e c t them, no s e t impact assessment and management time frame can be e s t a b l i s h e d f o r a l l p r o j e c t s . A d a p t i v e ( s t r a t e g i c ) p l a n n i n g i s r e q u i r e d as w e l l as a d a p t i v e management. (71) The f a i l u r e t o i n i t i a t e the d e s i g n and u n d e r t a k i n g of p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l m o n i t o r i n g i n Rupert I n l e t i s an o b v i o u s example of poor p l a n n i n g - - m i n e - s i t e c l e a r i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n preceded the b e g i n n i n g of the m o n i t o r i n g program by one y e a r , at which time an i n v e s t m e n t i n r i g o r o u s p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l d a t a g a t h e r i n g might have been made. F a i l u r e t o i n i t i a t e t h i s e a r l i e r r e s u l t e d i n a rushed r e v i e w by the UBC IA of the work a l r e a d y i n p r o g r e s s by T.W. Beak C o n s u l t a n t s , and e v e n t u a l l y i n b a s e l i n e d a t a on b e n t h i c f l o r a and f a u n a and pre-mine t u r b i d i t y b e i n g the o b j e c t of c o n t r o v e r s y ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977). In many r e s p e c t s , however, s u f f i c i e n t t i m e was a v a i l a b l e t o s e t r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s and i n t e g r a t e them w i t h t h e d e s i g n of the t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l system. T h i s t i m e was i n some i n s t a n c e s p r o f i t a b l y used by t h e company and e n v i r o n m e n t a l m a n a g e r s — an e f f e c t i v e water i n t a k e system which d i d not e f f e c t salmon was i d e n t i f i e d by DFF as n e c e s s a r y and e f f e c t i v e l y d e s i g n e d ; and the underwater o u t f a l l was i t s e l f f i r s t proposed and d e s i g n e d d u r i n g the n e g o t i a t i o n p e r i o d ( p r e v i o u s l y , a l l o u t f a l l s had been at the s u r f a c e C E l l i s ed., 1 9 8 2 ] ) . Where the time was not e f f e c t i v e l y used was i n t h e d e s i g n of r e s e a r c h a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the m o n i t o r i n g program, and t h i s was not so much because the t i m e was not a v a i l a b l e : i t was s i m p l y not used. Communication w i t h i n and between s c i e n t i s t s and managers r e q u i r e s improvement, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the a r e a s of a c c e s s t o l i t e r a t u r e , the q u a l i t y of r e s e a r c h r e p o r t s , and updated knowledge of p r o j e c t s u n d e r g o i n g assessment and management ( G i l e s 1981; Beanlands and Duinker 1981:34). Rosenberg and Resh (1981:616) have recommended: 1. p u b l i s h i n g of a complete c a t a l o g u e of assessments and of r e s u l t i n g management s t r a t e g i e s ; 2. a comprehensive o n - l i n e a b s t r a c t i n g s e r v i c e f o r a l l r e p o r t s , j o u r n a l (72) a r t i c l e s , and the l i k e ; 3. the a d v e r t i s e m e n t of r e p o r t s and t h e i r c i r c u l a t i o n t h rough l i b r a r y s y stems; 4. the c o m p i l a t i o n of f o l l o w - u p documents w i t h t h e assessments they f o l l o w ; 5. t h a t r e p o r t s s h o u l d be o r g a n i z e d as i s t y p i c a l f o r s c i e n t i f i c p u b l i c a t i o n s , so t h a t methods and c o n c l u s i o n s can be c r i t i c a l l y r e v i e w e d ; and, 6. t h a t the r e s u l t s of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s s h o u l d be s u b m i t t e d t o r e f e r e e d j o u r n a l s r e g u l a r l y . T h e i r recommendations r e l a t e p a r t i c u l a r l y t o i n t e r a c t i o n s between t h e s c i e n t i s t s i n v o l v e d i n impact assessment and management. Oorcey and H a l l (1981) have, as mentioned e a r l i e r , c o n c e n t r a t e d on i n t e g r a t i n g impact assessment w i t h l o n g - r a n g e p l a n n i n g f o r a r e g i o n or r e s o u r c e by e s t a b l i s h i n g l i n e s of communication between managers i n v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s and government and independent s c i e n t i s t s . F i n a l l y , a recommendation from a n o n - s c i e n t i s t : t h e r e i s no a p p a r e n t r e a s o n why r e p o r t s are couched i n t h e o b s c u r e language they o f t e n use except t o d i s c o u r a g e the u n i n i t i a t e d and a f f i r m the a u t h o r ' s s o c i a l s u p e r i o r i t y . U s e f u l r e p o r t s are w r i t t e n w i t h a range of d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n mind, not a l l of whom ar e f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e l a t e s t j a r g o n . Though some of t h e s e recommendations ex t e n d beyond a p a r t i c u l a r case such as Utah, communication proved t o be a major f l a w i n the management of the c a s e . The r e p o r t s of the UBC IA o f t e n i n c l u d e d u n i n t e r p r e t e d t a b u l a t i o n s of d a t a ( a p p e n d i c e s by E l l i s [19741 and Foreman [1976] a r e i n s t r i k i n g c o n s t r a s t t o t h i s t r e n d ) , making i t i m p o s s i b l e t o e v a l u a t e how r i g o r o u s l y t h e d a t a had been i n t e r p r e t e d o r , i n the case of laymen, whether i t was i n f a c t p e r t i n e n t t o t h e i s s u e s of marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l at a l l . The f o r m a l communication p r o c e s s — r e f e r r a l s — d i d not l e a d t o i n t e r a c t i v e c o n f r o n t a t i o n (73) between s c i e n t i s t s even w i t h i n the two r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s who took p a r t i n i t . D u r i n g the p e r i o d i n which EPS was c o n d u c t i n g i t s s t u d y , PCB f i l e s r e v e a l almost no communication between t h e two a g e n c i e s . And of c o u r s e t h e r e f e r r a l p r o c e s s had no d i r e c t e f f e c t on communication between EPS and e i t h e r t h e company or t h e UBC IA, as each of t h e s e g r o u p s , though c e n t r a l t o the e n v i r o n m e n t a l management of t h e mine, were not p a r t y t o t h e s e r e f e r r a l s . There i s no i n d i c a t i o n i n any of the w r i t t e n m a t e r i a l of i n f o r m a l communication between the r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s and the UBC IA. In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n on r e s e a r c h d e s i g n I s h a l l i n d i c a t e how such communication might have improved and g a i n e d a c c e p t a n c e of the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n of the n e a r - s h o r e b e n t h i c s t u d y conducted by Foreman (1976). I n c r e a s e d a c c o u n t a b i l i t y by t h o s e u n d e r t a k i n g impact assessment and management c o u l d be a c h i e v e d by r e q u i r e m e n t s t h a t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n d i c a t e the e x t e n t t o which s c i e n t i f i c i n p u t was a p p l i e d t o d e c i s i o n s t o proceed or to a l t e r a t i o n s of p r o j e c t d e s i g n (Rosenburg and Resh 1981). D e f i n i n g i n advance t h e t y p e and form of s c i e n t i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n which would be u s a b l e by d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s would a s s i s t s c i e n t i s t s i n a c h i e v i n g both r e l e v a n c e and a c c o u n t a b i l i t y . Requirements t h a t r e p o r t s be s i g n e d and s u b j e c t t o r e v i e w both p u b l i c l y and by t h e i r p e e r s would be an i n i t i a l s t e p i n i m p r o v i n g the a c c o u n t a b i l i t y of s c i e n t i s t s ' c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o impact assessment and management. A c c o u n t a b i l i t y was s e r i o u s l y undermined at Utah by the f a i l u r e t o i n t e g r a t e the m o n i t o r i n g program w i t h the p r o j e c t ' s e n v i r o n m e n t a l management. I t was never made c l e a r i n what r e s p e c t the m o n i t o r i n g program would c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e management of the p r o j e c t — the e f f o r t s of t h e UBC IA and the two r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s were never c l e a r l y i n t e g r a t e d and t h e r e f o r e each (74) proceeded i n an ad hoc f a s h i o n . From t h e PCB's p e r s p e c t i v e , c o m p l i a n c e w i t h the terms of the p e r m i t was the s i n g l e o b j e c t i v e , and t h e m o n i t o r i n g program (by d e t e r m i n i n g t h e amount and q u a l i t y of t h e e f f l u e n t ) e n a b l e d t h i s c o m p l i a n c e t o be d e t e r m i n e d . Whatever e l s e i t a c c o m p l i s h e d as a g e n e r a t o r of new knowledge of t h e e f f e c t of t a i l i n g s on marine e n v i r o n m e n t s was t o t h e PCB e n t i r e l y f o r t u i t o u s and not of any p a r t i c u l a r c o n c e r n t o the u n d e r t a k i n g of t h e i r mandate. To EPS the m o n i t o r i n g program was i n e f f e c t i v e l y s t r u c t u r e d ( i n terms of t h e q u e s t i o n s i t a d d r e s s e d ) and not r i g o r o u s l y pursued ( i n terms of i t s s a m p l i n g and a n a l y t i c a l p r o c e d u r e s ) , w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t t h e two main c o n d i t i o n s of the o r i g i n a l agreement between DFF and Utah M i n e s — t h a t t o x i c e f f e c t s (as measured by 5 c o n s e c u t i v e b i o a s s s y f a i l u r e s ) and n e a r - s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y not o c c u r (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2)-- c o u l d not be v e r i f i e d . The UBC IA m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e program d i d not p r o v i d e any e v i d e n c e of s i g n i f i c a n t d e l e t e r i o u s e f f e c t s (Evans et a l _ 1973 and 1979), as d e t e r m i n e d by competent " t e c h n i c a l e v a l u a t o r s " ( P e l l e t i e r 1977)-- i n t h i s case t h e m s e l v e s . The company has l e f t no r e c o r d of i t s e x p e c t a t i o n s of t h e program, but presumably agreed w i t h the UBC IA. Each group had d i f f e r e n t e x p e c t a t i o n s of the m o n i t o r i n g program, and t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s were never r e s o l v e d , w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t i t s e x i s t e n c e and o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e s c o n t i n u e d t o be the f o c u s of c o n t e n t i o n . E. Stages i n t h e A p p l i c a t i o n of S c i e n c e . I have o r g a n i z e d my r e v i e w of much of the l i t e r a t u r e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e around what I view as the f o u r c e n t r a l s t a g e s of i n t e g r a t i n g s c i e n t i f i c knowledge w i t h impact assessment and management: s c o p i n g , r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , r e s e a r c h , and r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n . Though I have d e v e l o p e d t h e s e as s e q u e n t i a l a c t i v i t i e s , they o v e r l a p . Research e v a l u a t i o n i n p a r t i c u l a r ought t o o c c u r at e v e r y p o i n t i n t h e i n t e g r a t i o n of r e s e a r c h w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l (75) management. 1• S c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g . W h i l e s o c i a l s c o p i n g r e s u l t s from some r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s which i d e n t i f i e s and p r i o r i z e s s o c i a l v a l u e s , s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g a t t e m p t s t o t r a n s l a t e t h e s e v a l u e c o n c e r n s i n t o s c i e n t i f i c a l l y r e s e a r c h a b l e q u e s t i o n s ( B e a n l a n d s and Du i n k e r 1983:67). T h i s i s not t o suggest t h a t s c i e n t i s t s may not a l s o r e f l e c t on s o c i a l v a l u e s and i n d i c a t e t h e i r p o s i t i o n s w i t h i n a s o c i a l s c o p i n g forum. S o c i a l s c o p i n g and s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g can be seen as i n t e r a c t i v e s u b s e t s of a s i n g l e p r o c e s s which a t t e m p t s t o d e t e r m i n e what i s worth knowing about, and what can be known. T h i s p r o c e s s depends on the e f f e c t i v e n a r r o w i n g of the range of p o t e n t i a l s c i e n t i f i c q u e s t i o n s t o a manageable s u b s e t , and t h e development of s t r a t e g i e s which w i l l l e a d on i n t o r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . Beanlands and D u i n k e r ' s (1983:67-70) approach i n v o l v e d a n s w e r i n g t h r e e q u e s t i o n s : " i s t h e r e r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t v a l u e d ecosystem components w i l l be a f f e c t e d . . . . b y the p r o j e c t " ; can t h o s e e f f e c t s over which t h e r e i s c o n c e r n be s t u d i e d d i r e c t l y ; and, i f n o t , can they be s t u d i e d i n d i r e c t l y ? What i s i m p l i c a t e d here i s a s e t of d e c i s i o n p o i n t s which d e t e r m i n e whether even p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d i e s w i l l be p u r s u e d , and whether t h e r e i s any p o i n t i n c o n t i n u i n g beyond them. The o b j e c t i v e i s t h e r e f o r e t o e s t a b l i s h p r e l i m i n a r i l y t he p o t e n t i a l s c i e n t i f i c c o n t r i b u t i o n i n a p a r t i c u l a r c o n t r o v e r s y - - from the p o i n t of view of the s c i e n t i s t , but w i t h s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l c o n c e r n s h e l d c a r e f u l l y i n mind. T h i s e x e r c i s e s h o u l d r e s u l t i n an i n i t i a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t of b o u n d a r i e s i n tim e and space; t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a.) parameter and b.) f u n c t i o n a l or t h e o r e t i c a l u n c e r t a i n t i e s by t y p e ; a p r e l i m i n a r y n o t i o n of what would be r e q u i r e d i n terms of r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g y ; and an assessment of the r e l a t i v e (76) t r a d e o f f s between t h e e f f i c i e n c y of g a i n i n g i n f o r m a t i o n from t h i s v e r s u s o t h e r p r o j e c t s . Ward (1978) has s u g g e s t e d the f o l l o w i n g a c t i v i t y c e n t r e d approach which a c h i e v e s t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s . E c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n ( u s i n g H i r s c h ' s 1980 t e r m i n o l o g y ) i s a r a p i d p r e l i m i n a r y f i e l d s u r v e y which has as i t s o b j e c t d e s c r i p t i o n of the s t r u c t u r e and f u n c t i o n of the environment i n q u e s t i o n . Ward (1978) recommends a c o n c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e s u r v e y t o i d e n t i f y the c u r r e n t s t a t e of knowledge r e g a r d i n g f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s of the system. At t h i s p o i n t c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n r a t h e r than p r e d i c t i o n i s the g o a l . L a r k i n (1984) has echoed t h i s recommendation f o r c o n c u r r e n t , and l i m i t e d , f i e l d and l i t e r a t u r e s u r v e y s . P r o j e c t p e r t u r b a t i o n s r e q u i r e a model of the p r o j e c t ' s p o t e n t i a l d i s t u r b a n c e of the environment i f they are t o be i d e n t i f i e d (see my F i g u r e 2.1 f o r an example of a p r e l i m i n a r y form of such a model f o r m i n e - m i l l i n g marine d i s p o s a l ) . C o n c e p t u a l m o d e l l i n g melds the two e a r l i e r s t e p s i n an e x p l i c i t q u a l i t a t i v e or q u a n t i t a t i v e model of the i n t e r a c t i o n s of the environment and of e x p e c t e d p r o j e c t p e r t u r b a t i o n s ( G i l l i l a n d and R i s s e r C19773 d i s c u s s such an approach w i t h r e s p e c t t o systems diagrams l i n k i n g t h e energy pathways of a d e s e r t ecosystem; Hoi l i n g et^ al_ C 19783 and ES8A C 19823 w i t h r e s p e c t t o computer m o d e l l i n g ) . " S i m p l i c i t y . . . p e r m i t s comprehension" (Hoi 1 i n g et a l 1978:81), and the parsimony of t h i s m e l ding i s a c e n t r a l s t e p i n n a r r o w i n g the a r e a s of s c i e n t i f i c c o n c e r n . There i s , of c o u r s e , a t r a d e o f f between the b e n e f i t s of a s i m p l e model and the a c c u r a c y of i t s r e f l e c t i o n of r e a l i t y . (77) From t h e s e s t e p s emerges a s e t of i n i t i a l impact p r e d i c t i o n s (which i n c l u d e a s e t of c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s ) from which a d e c i s i o n can be made t o e i t h e r a b o r t f u r t h e r s t u d y , or t o c o n t i n u e t o r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . The d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the c r i t i c a l s o c i a l i s s u e s ( s o c i a l s c o p i n g ) posed by t h e Utah Mines development was e f f e c t i v e l y done w i t h i n DFF and the PCB a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r mandates, though i t i s c l e a r from the f i l e s of both t h a t t h e y c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d t h e l e t t e r s of o b j e c t i o n r e c e i v e d from t h e p u b l i c and from SPEC and o t h e r s . There was, however, no p u b l i c forum where t h i s was made e v i d e n t ( t h e p u b l i c was e n t i r e l y unaware of t h e e x t e n t of the i n t e r n a l r e v i e w s conducted by t h e s e a g e n c i e s ) , and because of the t i m i n g and n a t u r e of t h e p u b l i c h e a r i n g , i t c o n t r i b u t e d n o t h i n g but f r u s t r a t i o n t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the p e r t i n e n t s o c i a l i s s u e s of the c a s e (cf_ Lucas and Moore 1973). By the time the h e a r i n g took p l a c e , the d e c i s i o n was e f f e c t i v e l y made, as i s w i t n e s s e d by the c o n s i d e r a b l e i n v e s t m e n t s which the company had by then made i n mine- and m i l l - s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n and c o n s t r u c t i o n . The q u a l i t y of s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g i s much more d i f f i c u l t t o a s s e s s . Given the s t a t e of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e at the t i m e , and the e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s which accompanied p r o j e c t s i n e a r l i e r y e a r s b e f o r e t h e P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Act or the r e v i s i o n s t o the f e d e r a l F i s h e r i e s Act i n 1970 which made p o s s i b l e more a c t i v e e f f o r t s t o p r e s e r v e h a b i t a t q u a l i t y , the p r o c e s s used at Rupert I n l e t appears commendable. A l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w was commissioned by the p r o v i n c i a l Department of Lands, F o r e s t s , and Water R e s o u r c e s , one of the c o n c l u s i o n s of which was the u n c e r t a i n s t a t e of c u r r e n t knowledge p e r t a i n i n g t o underwater d i s p o s a l . The p r o c e s s d i d r e s u l t i n t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of u n c e r t a i n t i e s , some of which were r e s o l v e d at t h e time (the b i o l o g i c a l l e a c h a b i l i t y of the ore b e i n g an example, a l t h o u g h i t was (78) i n c o r r e c t l y r e s o l v e d ; and t h e n o n - t o x i c i t y of t a i l i n g s i s a n o t h e r ) , and some of which were hoped t o be r e s o l v e d t h r o u g h the then unique m o n i t o r i n g program. However, a c r i t i c a l a s p e c t of the system was i n c o r r e c t l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d — f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n was e n t i r e l y m i s u n d e r s t o o d by the company, i t s c o n s u l t a n t s , and DFF. The PCB, though i t r e c o g n i z e d t h a t f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s were more complex than d e s c r i b e d , d i d not advance an a l t e r n a t i v e model of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n w i t h which they c o u l d c o n f r o n t t h e company and i t s c o n s u l t a n t s (PCB f i l e 026100-PE-379). Nor was t h e m o n i t o r i n g program e f f e c t i v e l y d i r e c t e d t o pursue t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s which had been i d e n t i f i e d by D F F — the e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s on salmon b e i n g a n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n from the m o n i t o r i n g program as i t was f i n a l l y c o n s t i t u t e d . But th e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s over f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s and the e f f e c t s of b e n t h i c o b l i t e r a t i o n and t u r b i d i t y on salmon were i d e n t i f i e d d u r i n g t h e r e v i e w p r o c e s s — i n the f i r s t case by the PCB and i n the second by DFF. The f a i l u r e t o d i r e c t t h e m o n i t o r i n g program t o them was more a problem of communication between t h e s e a g e n c i e s and the company and UBC IA than of f a i l u r e t o a d e q u a t e l y d e t e r m i n e what t h e c r i t i c a l l y u n c e r t a i n i s s u e s were. 2. Research D e s i g n . Research d e s i g n has provoked the g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t among the c r i t i c s of t r a d i t i o n a l impact assessment and management s c i e n c e . The development of f u n c t i o n a l models ( t y p i c a l l y computer s i m u l a t i o n s ) t o g u i d e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s has been emphasized by Ward (1978), Hunn ( 1 9 7 9 ) , and Beanlands and Duinker (1983), each of whom has been i n f l u e n c e d by Hoi 1 i n g (Hoi 1 i n g et_ a j _ 1978), and h i s a s s o c i a t e s ( H i l b o r n 1979; W a l t e r s 1974; H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s 1981). The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of parameter and f u n c t i o n a l u n c e r t a i n t y has proved t o be a s t r e n g t h of t h i s approach (ESSA E n v i r o n m e n t a l and S o c i a l Systems A n a l y s t s L t d . 1982:27). When computer s i m u l a t i o n models have been combined w i t h (79) i n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e management workshops (combining s c i e n t i s t s , managers and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s under one r o o f ) they have proved e f f e c t i v e i n d e f i n i n g r e s e a r c h problems a p p r o p r i a t e t o the needs of d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , t h u s e n s u r i n g t h a t the p r o d u c t s of r e s e a r c h w i l l be used i n the d e c i s i o n or d e s i g n p r o c e s s . However, t h e i r e f f e c t i v e n e s s as p r e d i c t i v e t o o l s appears t o have been l i m i t e d t o s i t u a t i o n s such as the Spruce Budworm case where f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s were r e a s o n a b l y w e l l u n d e r s t o o d i n advance. The r e v i e w of a d a p t i v e e n v i r o n m e n t a l assessment and management conducted by ESSA E n v i r o n m e n t a l and S o c i a l Systems A n a l y s t s L t d . suggested t h a t impact i d e n t i f i c a t i o n has been one of the l e s s s u c c e s s f u l e lements of t h i s a p p r o a c h , though they m a i n t a i n e d i t was s t i l l " m o d e r a t e l y s u c c e s s f u l " (1982:30). A c h i e v i n g a problem d e f i n i t i o n which matches the needs of r e s o u r c e managers has a l s o been emphasized by Beanlands and Duinker (1963:62-71) and Rosenberg and Resh (1981:618-619). Dorcey and H a l l (1981:55-56) have s u g g e s t e d t h a t r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s ought t o be e s t a b l i s h e d t h r o u g h an i n t e r p l a y between s c i e n t i s t s and managers where they s e p a r a t e l y and j o i n t l y d e f i n e t h e i r r e s e a r c h r e q u i r e m e n t s , b e a r i n g i n mind the i n c r e m e n t a l b e n e f i t s of v a r i o u s t y p e s of r e s e a r c h compared t o the c o s t s i n time and r e s o u r c e s of u n d e r t a k i n g t h a t r e s e a r c h . Research d e s i g n w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h r e e s t a g e s : the f i r s t d i s c r i m i n a t e s between b a s e l i n e ( d e s c r i p t i v e ) and p r o c e s s ( f u n c t i o n a l and t h e o r e t i c a l ) s t u d i e s } the second o f f e r s a l i s t of p o s s i b l e r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s ; and the t h i r d b r i e f l y c o n s i d e r s problems r e l a t i n g t o s a m p l i n g and s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s . B a s e l i n e s t u d i e s are a p p r o p r i a t e when s t o c h a s t i c u n c e r t a i n t y or parameter u n c e r t a i n t y i s p r e s e n t , and d e s c r i p t i v e knowledge i s r e q u i r e d about (80) the system i n q u e s t i o n ( g e n e r a l l y f o r the purpose of p r o v i d i n g p r e - p e r t u r b a n c e i n f o r m a t i o n i n c l u d i n g the range of s e a s o n a l and s p a t i a l v a r i a b i l i t y f o r comparison w i t h m o n i t o r e d e f f e c t s [ H i r s c h 19803). B a s e l i n e s t u d i e s have been t r e a t e d as a panacea, i n the sense t h a t some a u t h o r s have f e l t t h a t more and b e t t e r q u a n t i f i e d d a t a would i t s e l f produce u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the systems i n v o l v e d (cf_ S t a t e s e t _ a l _ 1 9 7 B , whose p o s i t i v i s t i c approach i s c r i t i q u e d i n Chapter 5 ) . However t h e i r use i s r e a l i s t i c a l l y l i m i t e d t o r e s o l u t i o n of t h e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s ; they cannot be used t o p r e d i c t i m p a c t s ( H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s 1981:270; Hoi 1 i n g et_ a l _ 1978s331-333; Dorcey and H a l l 1981:8-9). F i r s t , the range of n a t u r a l l y o c c u r r i n g v a r i a t i o n of a system may not approach t h e d i s t u r b a n c e caused by human p e r t u r b a t i o n , 2.) c o n t r o l s a re d i f f i c u l t t o e s t a b l i s h under n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s , w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s a re o b s c u r e d , 3.) t h e t i m e r e q u i r e d t o i d e n t i f y v a r i a b i l i t y may be u n a v a i l a b l e w i t h i n the c o n s t r a i n t s s e t by the p r o j e c t ' s i t i n e r a r y , and 4.) w i t h o u t a t h e o r e t i c a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e system i n q u e s t i o n , no a p r i o r i r e a s o n s e x i s t by which t o i d e n t i f y the r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s t o measure. Viewed i n t h i s l i g h t t h e UBC agency s t r a t e g y of c o l l e c t i n g a l l i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t c o u l d be of p o s s i b l e r e l e v a n c e (Evans 1972) appears s h o r t s i g h t e d . The e f f o r t might w e l l have been b e t t e r spent on a r e s e a r c h d e s i g n which may have answered fundamental q u e s t i o n s about t h e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s of t h e Rupert I n l e t ecosystem; f o r i n s t a n c e , t e s t i n g h y p o t h e s e s r e g a r d i n g the energy pathways from benthos t o salmon. P r o c e s s s t u d i e s t h a t produce f u n c t i o n a l knowledge of a systems i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e r e q u i r e d when u n c e r t a i n t i e s due t o i g n o r a n c e e x i s t . T h i s i s t h e c e n t r a l message of a s e r i e s of s t u d i e s of impact assessment and management ( R o l l i n g e t _ a l _ 1978; Ward 1978; Beanlands and Duinker 1983; Dorcey and H a l l 1981; Rosenberg and Resh 1981; H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s 1981) which (81 ) c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o d u c t i o n of knowledge t o a s s i s t e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . D i f f i c u l t i e s can be e x p e r i e n c e d w i t h p r o c e s s s t u d i e s a l s o , however. For i n s t a n c e , i f o n l y l a b o r a t o r y e x p e r i m e n t s a r e used, t h e y may not a c c u r a t e l y r e p r e s e n t t h e complex n a t u r a l systems t h e y attempt t o model (Ward 1978). The e x t r a p o l a t i o n of r e s u l t s i n t o systems of l a r g e r s p a t i a l and temporal s c a l e may be i n a p p r o p r i a t e . In any c a s e , d e t e r m i n i n g the key p r o c e s s e s of a n a t u r a l system ( t h a t i s , t h e ones which are most c r i t i c a l t o the p r e d i c t i o n of i m p a c t s ) i s not a t r i v i a l problem. "There a r e an i n f i n i t e number of p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d i n any e c o s y s t e m , and one's p e r s p e c t i v e on what i s a "key" p r o c e s s depends on one's t r a i n i n g " ( H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s 1981:271) (more w i l l be s a i d on t h i s s u b j e c t d u r i n g t h e d i s c u s s i o n of Kuhn i n Chapter 5 ) . Research s t r a t e g i e s : a s s o c i a t e d w i t h an i n t e r e s t i n f u n c t i o n a l models has been a growing c o n c e r n w i t h h y p o t h e s i s t e s t i n g t h r o u g h e x p e r i m e n t . Ward (1978:81-126) has g i v e n p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e use of f i e l d and l a b o r a t o r y e x p e r i m e n t s , w h i l e H o l l i n g e t _ a l _ (1978) and H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s (1981) have s u g g e s t e d the use of f a c i l i t i e s s i m i l a r t o the proposed development as e x p e r i m e n t a l d e v i c e s . A number of e x p e r i m e n t a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s can be e x p l o r e d , and one or more chosen t o f i t the needs of i n d i v i d u a l p r o j e c t s . None of t h e s t r a t e g i e s d i s c u s s e d below a r e s e l f - e v i d e n t l y c o r r e c t , and c h o i c e s a r e t h e r e f o r e j u d g e m e n t a l . S c i e n t i s t s must be p r e p a r e d t o r e s o l v e d i s p u t e s over t h e a p p r o p r i a t e mix of s t r a t e g i e s which might be used i n any g i v e n c a s e . 1. L a b o r a t o r y e x p e r i m e n t s must be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n . Ward (1978:105-108) l i s t s a s e r i e s of c o n s t r a i n t s (each a s s o c i a t e d w i t h our e a r l i e r d e s c r i p t i o n s of c o m p l e x i t y i n n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s ) on what can be e x t r a p o l a t e d from l a b s t u d i e s : (82) a. ) s t r e s s i n g f a c t o r s can change or recombine i n t h e environment t o produce t o x i c e f f e c t s ( f o r i n s t a n c e , a f r o t h e r i n t r o d u c e d at Utah, though not i t s e l f t o x i c , o p e r a t e d s y n e r g i s t i c a l l y w i t h o t h e r r e a g e n t s t o produce a t o x i c e f f e c t — which was p r o m p t l y d i s c o v e r e d by t h e weekly b i o a s s a y s [ P e l l e t i e r 19821); b. ) i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h o t h e r e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s might r e s u l t i n u n p r e d i c t e d e f f e c t s (such as n a t u r a l s u b - l e t h a l s t r e s s e s combining l e t h a l l y w i t h d e b i l i t a t i n g t o x i c s ) ; c. ) c u m u l a t i v e or t i m e - l a g g e d e f f e c t s may go u n n o t i c e d ( t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of d i a g e n e s i s b e i n g a case i n p o i n t ) ; d. ) t h e v a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s may not be r e p r o d u c e d i n t h e l a b ( the e a r l y l a b s t u d i e s of the f l o c c u l a t i o n and c o a g u l a t i o n of t a i l i n g s i n seawater d i d not produce i n c o r r e c t d a t a , however t h e c o r o l l a r y a s s u m p t i o n s r e g a r d i n g maximum r a t e s of u p w e l l i n g were i n c o r r e c t and the r e s u l t i n g p r e d i c t i o n s of no s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y were wrong); and, e. ) i n t r a - and i n t e r - s p e c i f i c i n t e r a c t i o n s may be p r e s e n t which l e a d t o unexpected e f f e c t s . I f t h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s a r e kept i n mind, l a b s t u d i e s are u s e f u l when i n t e g r a t e d w i t h o t h e r forms of e x p e r i m e n t , or when aimed at d e f i n i n g s p e c i f i c f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n computer models. 2. P i l o t s c a l e or f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t s mimic development p e r t u r b a t i o n s over a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e a r e a of an e n v i r o n m e n t , u s i n g c o n t r o l s and s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s t o d e t e r m i n e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s and methods of c o n t r o l l i n g them. Ward (1978(83-84) and B i d d i n g s (1980) d i s c u s s s p e c i f i c a p p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s a pproach. 3. E x p e r i m e n t a l management has been proposed as a s e r i e s of methods which might cope w i t h the problems of l a b o r a t o r y and p i l o t s c a l e e x p e r i m e n t s . (83) These methods f a l l i n t o t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s i e x p e r i m e n t s w i t h s i m i l a r a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s or a c t i o n s ; development w i t h m o n i t o r i n g ; and c o m p a r i t i v e e x p e r i m e n t s d u r i n g development, 3 a . E x p e r i m e n t s t h a t use e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s as s u r r o g a t e s f o r development a c t i o n s have been proposed but t o d a t e not implemented (Ward 1978:85). However H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s (1981:272-273) suggest u s i n g e x i s t i n g dams on the Nechako as such a f a c i l i t y t o s t u d y the e f f e c t s of low f l o w s on salmon as a r e s u l t of f u r t h e r h y d r o - e l e c t r i c dam c o n s t r u c t i o n . Though l o g i s t i c a l and j u r i s d i c t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h t h i s approach may be s i g n i f i c a n t , i t o f f e r s p o s s i b i l i t i e s where development a c t i o n s can be a c c u r a t e l y mimiced and the n a t u r a l systems are s u f f i c i e n t l y s i m i l a r . 3b.Development w i t h m o n i t o r i n g uses p a s t and p r e s e n t p r o j e c t s as q u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t s ( t h e r e a r e , of c o u r s e , no c o n t r o l s i n the normal sense) t o produce what H i l b o r n and W a l t e r s d e s c r i b e as ' d e t a i l e d h i n d s i g h t ' (1981:273-275). O p p o r t u n i t i e s t o d e v e l o p d e t a i l e d h i n d s i g h t p r i o r t o Utah e x i s t e d i n a number of B.C. l o c a t i o n s — Yreka Mine i n N e u r o s t o s I n l e t , B r i t a n n i a Mines i n Howe Sound, and the B.C. Molybdenum Mine at A l i c e Arm. None of t h e s e cases were examined d u r i n g the assessment phase at Utah M i n e s , though subsequent c o m p a r i t i v e work has been done ( H a r d i n g 1983) and t h e I s l a n d Copper Mine e x p e r i e n c e has been used as d e t a i l e d h i n d s i g h t i n p l a n n i n g o t h e r mine developments ( E l l i s , ed., 1982). In the b e s t case b a s e l i n e s t u d i e s c onducted i n advance of p e r t u r b a t i o n p r o v i d e an i n i t i a l p o i n t f o r t h e s e l o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d i e s ( s u b j e c t t o the c o n s t r a i n t s of n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y and so o n ) , however even where such b a s e l i n e s t u d i e s have not o c c u r e d t r e n d a n a l y s i s may p r o v i d e i n s i g h t s i n t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l change (Beanlands and Duinker 1983). The f a i l u r e t o i n c l u d e p r o v i s i o n f o r m o n i t o r i n g (both i n terms of f u n d i n g and a c c e p t a b l e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n ) i n t h e assessment p r o c e s s has (84) been emphasized i n the l i t e r a t u r e (cf_ Beanlands and D u i n k e r 1983:94-95; Ward 1978:85), and i t s i n c o r p o r a t i o n at Rupert I n l e t must be c o n s i d e r e d a s i g n i f i c a n t achievement i n i t s day. 3 c . P r o j e c t s may a l s o be used t o compare d i f f e r e n t management s t r a t e g i e s , t h e e f f e c t s of v a r i o u s s o r t s of d i s p o s a l methods, or o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e s posed by the development. For i n s t a n c e , d i f f e r e n t o p e r a t i n g p r o c e d u r e s c o u l d be p l a n n e d t o t e s t over time the r e s u l t s of d i f f e r e n t water r e l e a s e regimes from a d a m s i t e on downstream e r o s i o n , or s o l i d waste d i s p o s a l t e c h n i q u e s c o u l d be compared t h r o u g h s i t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e f a c i l i t i e s i n a d j a c e n t and s i m i l a r w a t e r s h e d s and m o n i t o r i n g t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e i m p a c t s over t i m e . U s i n g a s e t of c a s e s where v a r i o u s development a c t i o n s and management s t r a t e g i e s have been a p p l i e d and t h e i r r e s u l t s compared has r e c e i v e d a t t e n t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the s t u d y of l o g g i n g p r a c t i c e s on s m a l l w atersheds ( H a l l e_t aj_ 1978). H a l l et a l have argued t h a t e x t e n s i v e ( c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l ) , m u l t i p l e c a s e , p o s t - t r e a t m e n t s t u d i e s o f f e r more g e n e r a l i z a b l e and c o s t - e f f e c t i v e r e s u l t s than the more common i n t e n s i v e ( l o n g i t u d i n a l ) b e f o r e - a n d - a f t e r t r e a t m e n t s t u d i e s . T h i s approach would be most u s e f u l f o r 1.) a l a r g e p r o j e c t w i t h s e q u e n t i a l s t a g e s , or 2.) s e t s of s m a l l p r o j e c t s a f f e c t i n g a s i m i l a r n a t u r a l environment (such as p e r m i t s or l i c e n s e s f o r waste d i s c h a r g e or water u s e ) . In any of t h e s e forms of exp e r i m e n t t h e f o r m u l a t i o n of h y p o t h e s e s which a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y p r e c i s e as t o be t e s t a b l e , the c r e a t i v e use of e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n t r o l s , and r e s e a r c h d e s i g n s which i n c o r p o r a t e r e p u t a b l e s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s a r e r e q u i r e d . S t a t i s t i c a l and s a m p l i n g t h e o r y can be a p p l i e d t o a c h i e v e the f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s : d e l i n e a t i o n of the n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y of components of the ( 8 5 ) e n v i r o n m e n t ; i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of n a t u r a l and man-induced t r e n d s t h r o u g h t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s ; measurement of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of i n t e r v e n t i o n measures; and a s s u r a n c e t h a t samples are r e l a t i v e l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . Each of t h e s e w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n t u r n , however i t i s c r i t i c a l t o r e c o g n i z e t h a t a l l must be l i n k e d i n some way which c i r c u m v e n t s the problems of e s t a b l i s h i n g r e p l i c a b i l i t y and c o n t r o l s . E b e r h a r d t (1976a s 31) has a p t l y d e s c r i b e d t h i s problems "the main p i t f a l l . . . i s t h a t t h e e s s e n t i a l i n f e r e n c e s i n p r e s e n t day e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n r e s t f i r m l y on the f o u n d a t i o n of random assignment of e x p e r i m e n t a l " t r e a t m e n t s " and " c o n t r o l s " t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e number of t e s t p l o t s , a n i m a l s , b a t c h e s of p r o d u c t , or whatever". In t h e s t u d y of e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s , " t h e r e i s j u s t one t r e a t e d a r e a and t h e r e may or may not be one or more " c o n t r o l s " . " R e p l i c a t i o n " , as u s u a l l y used i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , a p p l i e s t o r e p e a t e d measurement of sample v a r i a b i l i t y , not t o the random r e - c r e a t i o n of t r e a t m e n t s . E b e r h a r d t ' s s o l u t i o n i s a p s u e d o - d e s i g n , "employing p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l d a t a on a s i t e and a c o n t r o l a r e a c o n t r a s t e d t o p o s t - o p e r a t i o n a l d a t a on both a r e a s , and s u b s t i t u t i n g r e p l i c a t i o n i n time f o r t r u e r e p l i c a t e a r e a s " — a p a i r e d s a m p l i n g approach <1976as27). An approach such as t h i s (which was i n f a c t r o u g h l y t h e approach a t t e m p t e d by the UBC agency at U t a h — u n f o r t u n a t e l y the u n p r e d i c t e d a r e a l e x t e n t of t a i l i n g s d i s p e r s i o n r e s u l t e d i n the " c o n t r o l " s t a t i o n s becoming " t r e a t e d " s t a t i o n s ) , or t h e m u l t i - s i t e s t u d y such as proposed by H a l l et a l ^ (1978) (which conforms more c l o s e l y t o H a r d i n g ' s 1983 s t u d y ) must be adopted t o c i r c u m v e n t t h i s problem. B e a r i n g t h i s i n mind we can t a k e up the a f o r e m e n t i o n e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . Problems of d e l i n e a t i n g n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y have r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n . E b e r h a r d t < 1976as 35-39; 1978) c o n c l u d e s t h a t sample s i z e s must o f t e n be so l a r g e as t o r e q u i r e major and e x p e n s i v e e f f o r t s i f any but the (86) most o b v i o u s of im p a c t s a re t o i d e n t i f i e d (see a l s o Hartzbank and McCusker 1979| and Kumar 1980). H o w m i l l e r (1976:166-167) d i s c u s s e s t h i s problem w i t h r e s p e c t t o b e n t h i c " p a t c h i n e s s " , and a l s o c a u t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the s e a s o n a l i t y of l i f e - c y c l e s ( w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t one must adopt a s o r t of s t r a t i f i e d s a m p l i n g i n t i m e ) . Gray (1980) has c o n s i d e r e d t h i s same problem w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t of b e n t h i c m o n i t o r i n g programs. Each b e n t h i c sample t a k e n as p a r t of the Utah m o n i t o r i n g program c o n s i s t s of an a g g r e g a t i o n of t h r e e r e p l i c a t i o n s ( I s l a n d Copper Mine E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n t r o l Program 1983). These l a s t two a u t h o r s , and M i l l a r d (1984) have s u g g e s t e d t h a t under many c o n d i t i o n s e s t a b l i s h i n g the n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y of b e n t h i c communities r e q u i r e s an o r d e r of magnitude more s a m p l i n g e f f o r t than t h a t used by Utah Mines. I d e n t i f y i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l t r e n d s or t r e n d s r e s u l t i n g from i n t e r v e n t i o n s t o c o n t r o l e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage a r e s i m i l a r p r o b l e m s , both of which g e n e r a l l y r e q u i r e advanced t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s (though i f n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l t y i s m i n i m a l , r e g r e s s i o n s h o u l d prove s u f f i c i e n t ) . Both r e q u i r e the s e p a r a t i o n of n a t u r a l p e r i o d i c i t y over time from o t h e r t i m e dependent i n f l u e n c e s ( l i k e i n t e r v e n t i o n s t o reduce thB mid-water t u r b i d i t y of an i n l e t t h r o u g h the a d d i t i o n of c o a g u l a n t s and f l o c c u l a t i n g a g e n t s , or t h e c u m u l a t i v e e f f e c t s of t u r b i d i t y on p h y t o p l a n k t o n a c t i v i t y ) ( H i p e l et a l , 1978). F i n a l l y , s a m p l i n g t e c h n i q u e s o f t e n produce b i a s e d samples because of e i t h e r the s e l e c t i v i t y of t h e s a m p l i n g s t r a t e g y or of t h e d e v i c e used. The s a m p l i n g s t a t i o n s i n R u p e r t - H o l b e r g I n l e t c o v e r bottom p r o f i l e s of v a r y i n g degree of s l o p e , which c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o i n t r o d u c e s y s t e m a t i c b i a s i n t o the b e n t h i c samples o b t a i n e d from t h e s e s t a t i o n s . Jones (1974) i d e n t i f i e d a s a m p l i n g b i a s as p r e s e n t i n the use of Ponar ( the dredge used i n the Rupert I n l e t m o n i t o r i n g program) v e r s u s a P e t e r s e n dredge. N e i t h e r t h e dredge nor (87) t h e s a m p l i n g s t a t i o n s have been changed over t i m e — the m o n i t o r i n g program c o n t i n u e s t o use both ( I s l a n d Copper Mine E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n t r o l Program Annual Report 19S3). The r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h e s a m p l i n g frame may a l s o provoke d i s p u t e . For i n s t a n c e , G o y e t t e and N e l s o n (1977»66) have s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e s a m p l i n g frame used by Foreman (1976) i n h i s n e a r s h o r e benthos s t u d y was u n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i n t h a t i t d i d not i d e n t i f y e f f e c t s of n e a r - s u r f a c e t u r b i d i t y and d e p o s i t i o n i n a r e a s of h i g h t a i l i n g s d e s p o s i t i o n , but i n s t e a d chose t r a n s e c t s i n a r e a s of low d e p o s i t i o n . I t s h o u l d a l s o be noted t h a t what i s n ' t sampled, i s not o b s e r v e d . Both G o y e t t e and N e l s o n (1977) and Waldichuk and Buchanan (1981) have commented on the l a c k of q u a n t i f i a b l e measures of t h e abundance of e p i b e n t h i c s p e c i e s such as c r a b s and prawns. Though t h e m o n i t o r i n g program t r a p p e d such s p e c i e s t o o b t a i n samples f o r m e t a l ' s a n a l y s i s (see T a b l e 3.1), the t e c h n i q u e used (commercial t r a p s ) d i d not a l l o w e s t i m a t e s of abundance t o be c a l c u l a t e d , e x c e p t f o r crude c a t c h per u n i t e f f o r t d a t a . The f a i l u r e t o use more r i g o r o u s methods such as o t t e r t r a w l s or s l e d tows t o o b t a i n measures of abundance r e s u l t e d i n c o n t i n u e d d i s a g r e e m e n t s over how many of t h e s e c r e a t u r e s were down t h e r e , and whether abundance was c h a n g i n g over t i m e . I t has not been my i n t e n t i o n t h r o u g h o u t t h i s s e c t i o n t o suggest t h a t s a m p l i n g d e s i g n and s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s e s at Utah a r e Inadequate. R a t h e r , I have a t t e m p t e d t o i l l u s t r a t e some of t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s which i n f l u e n c e the c h o i c e of d i f f e r e n t s a m p l i n g s t r a t e g i e s . The a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of s a m p l i n g s t r a t e g i e s depend on the r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e , the c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s which are d e s i r e d f o r t h e d a t a , and the power of s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s which an a n a l y s t wishes t o a c h i e v e . These a r e i s s u e s which can o n l y be r e s o l v e d t h r o u g h an i n t e r a c t i o n between s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s and s c i e n t i f i c r e q u i r e m e n t s , and ought t h e r e f o r e t o be c o n s i d e r e d d u r i n g the s o c i a l and s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g e x e r c i s e . (88) However, t h i s s e c t i o n has i n d i c a t e d the ways i n which commentators have q u e s t i o n e d t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of s a m p l i n g and s t a t i s t i c s i n t h e I s l a n d Copper Mine's m o n i t o r i n g program. These i s s u e s have formed t h e f o c i of numerous d i s a g r e e m e n t s . The Waldichuk and Buchanan r e p o r t d i d not a d d r e s s t h e s e d i s p u t e s , and they remain u n r e s o l v e d t o d a t e . I s s u e s r e l a t e d t o s a m p l i n g d e s i g n and s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s can soon f a l l beyond t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of many p l a n n e r s and s c i e n t i s t s i n v o l v e d i n r e s e a r c h d e s i g n (cf_ M i l l a r d ' s 1984 d i s c u s s i o n of o p t i m i z i n g r e s e a r c h d e s i g n based on c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s , the power of s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s , and the c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s of v a r i o u s s t r a t e g i e s ) . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e s o l u t i o n of t h e s e i s s u e s may be c e n t r a l t o a c h i e v i n g what i n Chapter 5 i s c a l l e d " i n t e r - s u b j e c t i v i t y " — mutual u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the c o g n i t i v e a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s . T h e r e f o r e , r e s e a r c h p l a n n e r s s h o u l d be c a p a b l e of a p r e l i m i n a r y assessment of t h e s e problems (Green 1979 i s an e x c e l l e n t and p r a g m a t i c r e f e r e n c e ) , and have a v a i l a b l e s p e c i a l i z e d s t a t i s t i c a l e x p e r t i s e . As s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s o f t e n form t h e e v i d e n c e f o r t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l e f f e c t s , open d i s c u s s i o n of the d e s i g n of s a m p l i n g s t r a t e g i e s and subsequent a n a l y s i s a r e r e q u i r e d at t h e e a r l i e s t s t a g e s . The N e a r s h o r e Benthos S t u d y — An Example of L o s t O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r  Research D e s i g n : I have mentioned a number of p o i n t s at which v a r i o u s p a r t i e s p e r c e i v e d weaknesses i n r e s e a r c h d e s i g n of the m o n i t o r i n g program at I s l a n d Copper Mine. Foreman's n e a r s h o r e b e n t h i c s t u d y o f f e r s an example of an i n t e r e s t i n g s t u d y where o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o c h a l l e n g e t h e a s s u m p t i o n s of p a r t i c i p a n t s and p o s s i b l y r e a c h an agreement over r e s e a r c h d e s i g n might have been r e a l i z e d , and where more e f f e c t i v e r e s e a r c h c o o r d i n a t i o n between a g e n c i e s c o u l d have o c c u r r e d . (89) The m o n i t o r i n g program as c o n s t i t u t e d c o n c e n t r a t e d on p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n t h r o u g h m e a s u r i n g , o r i g i n a l l y , t h e s t a n d i n g crop o f marine p h y t o p l a n k t o n ( C h l o r o p h y l l ' a ' ) , and, l a t e r , t h e a s s i m i l a t i o n r a t e of p h y t o p l a n k t o n (Carbon 14). These M e r e found t o p r o v i d e s i m i l a r t r e n d s over t i m e when a n a l y z e d on an a g g r e g a t e d b a s i s a c r o s s the i n l e t , and t h e C14 s t u d y was l a t e r d i s c o n t i n u e d and t h e money d i v e r t e d t o a s t u d y of j u v e n i l e s a l m o n i d s . There a r e a c o n s i d e r a b l e number of d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h u s i n g p h y t o p l a n k t o n p r o d u c t i v i t y as measures of mi n e - i n d u c e d changes i n p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n . F i r s t , p h y t o p l a n k t o n abundance e x h i b i t s extreme n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y , w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s o u r c e s have t o be a l l o c a t e d t o i d e n t i f y i n g t h e e x t e n t of t h i s v a r i a b i l i t y — a l o t of s a m p l i n g i s r e q u i r e d . Yet even when t h i s i s done, s e p a r a t i n g the e f f e c t s of t u r b i d i t y from o t h e r n a t u r a l causes of v a r i a b i l i t y may prove v e r y d i f f i c u l t . Second, t h e extreme v e r t i c a l m i x i n g of the Rupert I n l e t system has been h y p o t h e s i z e d t o impose a major l i m i t i n g f a c t o r on t h e abundance of p h y t o p l a n k t o n — t h e v e r t i c a l c i r c u l a t i o n i n t h e water column t r a n s p o r t s p h y t o p l a n k t o n below t h e e u p h o t i c zone (Buchanan 1982). T h i r d , even where changes i n t o t a l p h y t o p l a n k t o n abundance c o u l d not be demonstrated t o o c c u r , changes i n t h e s p e c i e s mix of p h y t o p l a n k t o n might n e v e r t h e l e s s r e s u l t i n d e c r e a s e d r a t e s of p r o d u c t i o n at t h e next t r o p h i c l e v e l . Some p h y t o p l a n k t o n a r e b e t t e r energy p r o d u c e r s than o t h e r s . These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s might at l e a s t s u ggest t h a t p h y t o p l a n k t o n may not be t h e b e s t i n d i c a t o r of changes i n p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n , and t h a t t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s o u r c e s a l l o c a t e d t o t h e i r s t u d y might have been more p r o d u c t i v e l y used. The ad hoc n a t u r e of s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g and r e s e a r c h d e s i g n at Utah might w e l l have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e s e f a i l u r e s . The macrophytes and b e n t h i c a l g a e which were i n p a r t t h e f o c u s of (90) Foreman's s t u d y have some advantages f o r t h e s t u d y of p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i v i t y . B e i n g r o o t e d or a t t a c h e d they a re not r e l o c a t e d by v e r t i c a l m i x i n g . B e i n g i m m o b i l e , r e p e a t s a m p l i n g of the same p o p u l a t i o n i s p o s s i b l e . One c o u l d t h e r e f o r e examine s t r e s s / r e s p o n s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n i t i a t e d by t u r b i d i t y and s e d i m e n t a t i o n at t h e l e v e l of t h e i n d i v i d u a l o r g a n i s m , r a t h e r than at t h e l e v e l of t h e p o p u l a t i o n . F i n a l l y , t h e l i v e s of i n d i v i d u a l macrophytes span p e r i o d s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a r i a b i l i t y , which r e d u c e s t h e l i k e l i h o o d of c o n f o u n d i n g the e f f e c t s of n a t u r a l v e r s u s mine i n d u c e d changes. These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s s uggest t h a t a s t u d y such as Foreman's might w e l l be defended as a s i g n i f i c a n t element of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program. However, i t was o n l y c a r r i e d out over one f i e l d season (1974), and t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h e t r a n s e c t s was q u e s t i o n e d by EPS s t a f f ( G o y e t t e and N e l s o n 1977). There a r e a number of r e a s o n s why t h i s s t u d y may not have been extended. The i n i t i a l f a i l u r e t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e e x t e n t of v e r t i c a l m i x i n g d i s c o u r a g e d i n t e r e s t i n macrophytes and b e n t h i c a l g a e as e i t h e r i n d i c a t o r s p e c i e s or i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t s of t h e system t h e m s e l v e s . T h i s i n c o r r e c t c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n of an i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t of ecosystem r e l a t i o n s h i p s a f f e c t e d t h e t r a j e c t o r y of t h i s and o t h e r s t u d i e s . In a d d i t i o n , no b a s e l i n e d a t a were a v a i l a b l e on n e a r s h o r e b e n t h i c communities (which i t s e l f might have r e s u l t e d from a f a i l u r e t o c o r r e c t l y c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e s y s t e m ) . Foreman's work was a l s o t h e f i r s t of i t s k i n d on the B.C. c o a s t , and t h e r e were t h e r e f o r e no examples of how such work s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n (Foreman 1976). T h i s would s u g g e s t t h a t t h e work was an unusual c o n t r i b u t i o n t o knowledge of n e a r s h o r e b e n t h i c c o m m u n i t i e s , and w o r t h w h i l e i n i t s own r i g h t . In l i g h t of t h e i n t e r e s t of EPS i n t h e e f f e c t s of mine t a i l i n g s on b e n t h i c c o m m u n i t i e s , and the recommendation by Waldichuk and Buchanan t h a t ( 9 1 ) b e n t h i c t r a n s e c t s be s t u d i e d t o d e t e r m i n e mine t a i l i n g s i n d u c e d e f f e c t s at v a r i o u s d e p t h s , t h e abandonment of t h i s element of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program must be viewed as u n f o r t u n a t e . EPS was at t h i s t i m e d e e p l y i n v o l v e d i n f i e l d w o r k i n Rupert I n l e t , and yet n e i t h e r t h e y nor members of the UBC IA i n i t i a t e d c o n t a c t s which might have extended t h i s program t o t h e i r mutual advantage. For i n s t a n c e , t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of the l o c a t i o n s of t r a n s e c t s c o u l d have been d i s c u s s e d p r i o r t o s t a r t i n g f i e l d w o r k — as one of the s t a t e d p u r p o s e s of the n e a r s h o r e benthos s t u d y was t o respond t o EPS's c o n c e r n s , t h e j o i n t development of a r e s e a r c h program and p r i o r agreement on what would c o n s t i t u t e a c c e p t a b l e p r a c t i c e would have been at t h e l e a s t p o l i t i c , and might p o s s i b l y have improved t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . Foreman does not j u s t i f y h i s c h o i c e of t h e t h r e e t r a n s e c t s he chose; and i n t h e abscence of a d i a l o g u e between EPS and Foreman which might have brought t o l i g h t the a s s u m p t i o n s each h e l d about t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t r a n s e c t s , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e whether h i s c h o i c e s were a p p r o p r i a t e or n o t . F i n a l l y , t h i s was work of t h e t y p e which EPS was p r e s s i n g f o r . C o - f u n d i n g of i t s c o n t i n u a t i o n f o r a s u f f i c i e n t p e r i o d of t i m e t o a s s e s s i t s v a l u e might w e l l have been p r a c t i b l e . T h i s s i n g l e s t u d y might have c o n s t i t u t e d a b r i d g e between EPS and t h e UBC IA. U n f o r t u n a t e l y none of t h e s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s were taken up. 3. R e s e a r c h . The a c t u a l conduct of r e s e a r c h i s an i s s u e f o r d i s c i p l i n a r y p r a c t i o n e r s , and I s h a l l not c o n s i d e r i t . However, a d m i n i s t r a t o r s have r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s which emerge at t h i s p o i n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the common a r e a s of i n t e r - j u r i s d i c t i o n a l agreements on f u n d i n g (such agreements might have emerged between EPS and (4MB d u r i n g t h e Utah c a s e , i f t h e y had agreed t o a j o i n t approach t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e and o v e r - l a p p i n g p r o b l e m s ) . As r e s e a r c h (92) r e s u l t s emerge, management r e s p o n s e s must be c r e a t e d and c o o r d i n a t e d between the r e l e v a n t p a r t i e s . 4. Re s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n . The e v a l u a t i o n of m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d r e s e a r c h by o t h e r s c i e n t i s t s has been r e l a t i v e l y n e g l e c t e d i n t h e impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e . Peer r e v i e w i s b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d by Beanlands and D u i n k e r [1983:411. T h e i r recommendation t h a t s c i e n t i f i c a d v i s o r y committees t o government r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s be e s t a b l i s h e d f o c u s e s on the a d v i c e such committees c o u l d p r o v i d e i n s e t t i n g r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s and i n f a c i l i t a t i n g e d u c a t i o n and communication, which touch r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n o n l y t a n g e n t i a l l y (1981:97-98). Rosenberg and Resh [1981:615] a t t r i b u t e t he s u p e r f i c i a l r e s e a r c h of much impact assessment and management t o l a c k of o r i g i n a l r e s e a r c h , f a i l u r e t o f o c u s s t u d i e s , i n a d e q u a t e p r e p a r a t i o n t h r o u g h l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w s , and i n a d e q u a t e r e f e r e n c i n g . They, and B i l e s (1981) a l s o s u g g e s t p r i m a r y p u b l i c a t i o n and peer r e v i e w as a c o r r e c t i v e f o r t h e s e p r o b l e m s , n o t i n g i n p a s s i n g t h a t t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s l i m i t t h e v a l u e of t h i s approach and t h a t s c i e n t i s t s might t h e r e f o r e i n f o r m a l l y c i r c u l a t e r e p o r t s p r i o r t o p u b l i c a t i o n t o make e v a l u a t i o n more t i m e l y (1981:616). C r i t i c a l s t u d y of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s a r e r e q u i r e d d u r i n g a t l e a s t two s t a g e s : d u r i n g r e s e a r c h d e s i g n ; and a f t e r s t u d i e s have ended. H a i l i n g ' s use of workshops which engage a v a r i e t y of s c i e n t i s t s , managers and o t h e r s i n t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e s of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n appears t o p r o v i d e c r i t i c a l commentary at t h i s s t a g e . B e a n l a n d s and D u i n k e r ' s (1980:97-98) r e q u i r e m e n t f o r agency a d v i s o r y committees i s an attempt t o p r o v i d e a s i m i l a r p r e v e n t i v e c a p a b i l i t y . A range of t e c h n i q u e s have been used t o p r o v i d e f o r e x - p o s t r e v i e w of ( 9 3 ) a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h , i n c l u d i n g d e f i c i e n c y s t a t e m e n t s produced by p a n e l s and t h e c r i t i c i s m of funded or un-funded i n t e r v e n e r s at p u b l i c h e a r i n g s . Both have been u s e d , f o r i n s t a n c e , d u r i n g t h e B e a u f o r t EARP p r o c e s s (Rees 1983|1985). I n t e r - a g e n c y r e v i e w of impact assessment or m o n i t o r i n g program r e p o r t s t y p i c a l l y p r o c e e d s t h r o u g h more or l e s s i n f o r m a l a p p r o a c h e s . The EPS and PCB r e v i e w of the UBC IA r e p o r t s were of such an ad hoc n a t u r e . PCB f i l e s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e UBC IA r e p o r t s were read and i n g e n e r a l a c c e p t e d w i t h o u t commentary. EPS, w h i l e c r i t i c a l , d i d not d i r e c t l y c o n f r o n t t h e UBC IA or Utah Mines r e g a r d i n g t h e i r c r i t i c i s m s u n t i l t h e p u b l i c a t i o n of t h e i r r e p o r t i n 1977. As I have mentioned, no r i g o r o u s e x t e r n a l e v a l u a t i o n of the d e s i g n of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program took p l a c e u n t i l l o n g a f t e r i t had been i n p l a c e , nor were t h e r e any c o l l e c t i v e e f f o r t s t o u n d e r t a k e t h i s e x c e p t f o r whatever o c c u r r e d w i t h i n t h e UBC IA i t s e l f . The d i f f i c u l t i e s t h i s engendered werei a. ) u n c e r t a i n t y as t o the c o r r e c t q u e s t i o n s t h e m o n i t o r i n g program ought t o a d d r e s s , and a q u e s t i o n a b l e a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s t o v a r i o u s elements of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program: b. ) f a i l u r e t o p r i o r i z e t h e o b j e c t i v e s of t h e program; c. ) q u e s t i o n a b l e use of s a m p l i n g and a n a l y t i c a l p r o c e d u r e s ; and, d. ) s t u d i e s which were never p e r i o d i c a l l y r e c o n s i d e r e d and w h i c h , r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r i n i t i a l v a l u e , might c u r r e n t l y be of l i t t l e w o r t h . The most o r g a n i z e d attempt at e x - p o s t r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n was the r e v i e w by Waldichuk and Buchanan. The approach was, i n e s s e n c e , a b l u e - r i b b o n committee. W a l d i c h u k , i n p a r t i c u l a r , had an i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e p u t a t i o n i n h i s f i e l d . The j o i n t r e p r e s e n t a t i o n from a f e d e r a l department (the Department of (94) F i s h e r i e s and Oceans) and p r o v i n c i a l m i n i s t r y ( M i n i s t r y of t h e Environment) i n d i c a t e s an attempt t o a s s u r e t h a t the p o i n t s of view of both governments were g u a r a n t e e d . A l t h o u g h the c o n t e x t i n which t h e r e v i e w o c c u r r e d s u g g e s t s t h a t i t s purpose was t o r e s o l v e a d i s p u t e between a government r e g u l a t o r y agency and t h e UBC IA, t h e mandate Waldichuk and Buchanan r e c e i v e d was t o " r e p o r t the f a c t s " and a s s e s s t h e " s i g n i f i c a n c e " of changes i n d u c e d by n i n e t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l . Such a mandate o b v i o u s l y i m p l i e d an a u t h o r i t a t i v e s o l u t i o n t o t h e problem; and such an a u t h o r i t a t i v e s o l u t i o n was not t o be had. The a m b i g u i t y and u n c e r t a i n t i e s which emerged i n Waldichuk and Buchanan's c o n c l u s i o n s a r e i n d i c a t i v e of t h i s p o i n t . My d i s c u s s i o n of t h e s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s and of t h e n a t u r e of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program has i n d i c a t e d t h a t g i v e n t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e of knowledge and t h e i s s u e s a d d r e s s e d by the m o n i t o r i n g program no a u t h o r i t a t i v e r e s o l u t i o n c o u l d be e x p e c t e d i n t h i s c a s e . I have f u r t h e r argued t h a t based on t h e c o m p l e x i t i e s and u n c e r t a i n t i e s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e i t would g e n e r a l l y be u n r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t t o a u t h o r i t a t i v e l y r e s o l v e such d i s p u t e s . I f t h e a p p r o p r i a t e o b j e c t i v e of t h e r e v i e w was t o i d e n t i f y a r e a s of agreement between the d i s p u t a n t s , and make s u g g e s t i o n s on how t h e problems over which they d i s a g r e e d might be s e t t l e d , then t h e method and p r o d u c t s of t h i s r e v i e w must be c o n s i d e r e d , at l e a s t i n p a r t , a f a i l u r e . Waldichuk and Buchanan d i d d e l i n e a t e a r e a s of agreement between t h e UBC IA and E P S — t h e n o n - t o x i c i t y of t h e t a i l i n g s i s an example. They a l s o recommended p r o f i t a b l e r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s which might d i r e c t f u t u r e r e s e a r c h on t h e e f f e c t s of t a i l i n g s on marine e c o s y s t e m s , and such recommendations c o u l d be c o n c e i v e d as an a t t e m p t t o i n d i c a t e what would be r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e a l o n g - t e r m r e s o l u t i o n t o t h e i s s u e s s e p a r a t i n g EPS from t h e UBC IA. However they d i d not p r o v i d e recommendations which might have r e s o l v e d t h e p a r t i c u l a r d i s p u t e ( 9 5 ) i n h a n d — recommendations t h a t s u g g e s t e d how t h e r e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e m o n i t o r i n g program towards commercial s p e c i e s c o u l d be e f f e c t e d , o r which would have improved t h e s a m p l i n g and s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s e s used by t h e I s l a n d Copper Mine, f o r i n s t a n c e . By a v o i d i n g t o u c h y i s s u e s l i k e t h e q u a l i t y of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n t h e y c o u l d make no s p e c i f i c recommendations r e g a r d i n g t h e m o n i t o r i n g program's o p e r a t i o n . Nor d i d th e y c l e a r l y p r i o r i z e t h e r e s e a r c h problems they i d e n t i f i e d . They d i d n ' t i n d i c a t e where t h e money would come from t o u n d e r t a k e t h i s r e s e a r c h , nor whether government a g e n c i e s or i n d u s t r y s h o u l d be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s . The r e v i e w a l s o took so l o n g t h a t t h e ti m e f o r d e c i s i o n had p a s s e d — i t began s i x y e a r s a f t e r t h e mine s t a r t e d o p e r a t i o n , and ended two and o n e - h a l f y e a r s l a t e r , by which t i m e t h e r e was l e s s urgency and p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e t o a c t on t h e problems. Nor d i d th e y examine t h e p r o c e s s used by government a g e n c i e s t o e v a l u a t e and implement the r e s u l t s of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program. But t h e i r g r e a t e s t f a i l i n g was t h e l a c k of a p o s i t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l forum i n which t o engage the r e l e v a n t p a r t i e s i n a d i a l o g u e . T h e i r approach of one-on-one i n t e r v i e w s w i t h t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e d i s p u t e p r e c l u d e d t h i s d i a l o g u e , w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t the p o t e n t i a l avenues of c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n were never e x p l o r e d . Both the approaches s u g g e s t e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e and t h o s e used i n t h e Utah c a s e s h a r e two l i m i t a t i o n s . They a r e n e g a t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l , and th e y o c c u r a f t e r t h e f a c t . By b e i n g n e g a t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l t h e y provoke n e g a t i v e and d e f e n s i v e r e a c t i o n s from t h o s e at whom the y a r e aimed; by o c c u r i n g a f t e r the f a c t t h e y p r e c l u d e e f f e c t i v e and t i m e l y i n t e r v e n t i o n — what i s l e a r n e d i s too o f t e n o n l y a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e next c a s e , not the p r e s e n t one. ( 9 6 ) F. C o n c l u s i o n s . These c o n c l u s i o n s summarize the d i s c u s s i o n t o d a t e and suggest some s h o r t c o m i n g s of t h e a n a l y s i s found i n t h e impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e . I t has been argued t h a t d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between t h r e e forms of c o n f l i c t which o c c u r i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n t r o v e r s i e s i s an i n i t i a l s t e p i n r e s o l v i n g them. Once c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t s have been t o an e x t e n t i s o l a t e d s c i e n t i f i c knowledge can then p l a y a p a r t i n a c h i e v i n g t h i s c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n . However, due t o the complex and u n c e r t a i n n a t u r e of e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o c e s s e s , t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of s c i e n c e t o t h i s c o n f l i c t r e s o l u t i o n cannot be merely t e c h n i c a l , i n the sense of merely a p p l y i n g " o f f - t h e - s h e l f " knowledge, but i n many c a s e s must i n v o l v e an element of r e s e a r c h . To be u s e f u l , a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s must be t a i l o r e d t o the p a r t i c u l a r c i r c u m s t a n c e s of the impact assessment. Research d e s i g n t h e r e f o r e becomes a c r i t i c a l element i n impact assessment. The e f f i c i e n c y and e f f e c t i v e n e s s of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s depend i n p a r t on an e f f e c t i v e s c o p i n g p r o c e s s which d i r e c t s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s at s o c i a l l y p e r t i n e n t q u e s t i o n s which have some hope of b e i n g answered g i v e n c u r r e n t s c i e n t i f i c c a p a b i l i t i e s . In a d d i t i o n , f o r r e s e a r c h t o have a d e m o n s t r a b l e v a l u e t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , i t s r o l e i n assessment must be i n t e g r a t e d i n t o l o n g e r - r a n g e r e s o u r c e management s t r a t e g i e s . The l i t e r a t u r e on the c o n t r i b u t i o n of s c i e n c e t o impact assessment and management has p r e d o m i n a n t l y f o c u s s e d on 1 . ) d o i n g b e t t e r s c i e n c e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y , 2 . ) i m p r o v i n g t h e s o c i a l d i r e c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c e f f o r t s , 3.) i m p r o v i n g t h e communication of m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n t i f i c work, and 4.) e s t a b l i s h i n g e x - p o s t e v a l u a t i v e p r o c e d u r e s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e found i n o t h e r s c i e n t i f i c e n d e a v o r s , such as r e f e r e e d j o u r n a l p u b l i c a t i o n . I t might be (97) q u e s t i o n e d whether t h e s e p r e s c r i p t i o n s a r e s u f f i c i e n t t o r e s o l v e s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s i n impact assessment and management. I s s u e s such as r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n have r e c e i v e d l i t t l e r i g o r o u s a t t e n t i o n from t h e commentators we have r e v i e w e d . As t h i s a s p e c t of s c i e n c e forms a c e n t r a l element of whatever o b j e c t i v i t y s c i e n c e can a c h i e v e , not g i v i n g i t r e l a t i v e l y e x p l i c i t a t t e n t i o n i s a s e r i o u s f a i l u r e . A l t h o u g h the I s l a n d Copper Nine was commendably one of t h e e a r l i e s t i n s t a n c e s of t h e use of an e x t e n s i v e m o n i t o r i n g program as a method of d e a l i n g w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l u n c e r t a i n t i e s , the e x p e r i e n c e s of the Utah case pose some l e s s o n s f o r s c i e n t i s t s and p l a n n e r s i n v o l v e d i n o t h e r s i m i l a r c a s e s . In p a r t i c u l a r , the case l a c k e d an i n t e r a c t i v e p r o c e s s of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n which i n v o l v e d a l l t h o s e p a r t i e s who would l a t e r have t o agree over t h e r e s u l t s of the r e s e a r c h . T h i s f a i l u r e c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e h e i g h t e n i n g of s c i e n t i f i c c o n f l i c t over t i m e . And a l t h o u g h the case i n c l u d e d a s i g n i f i c a n t component of r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n , t h a t r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n was not o r g a n i z e d t o c o n t r i b u t e p o s i t i v e l y t o t h e r e s o l u t i o n of d i s p u t e s e i t h e r over t h e s h o r t - or l o n g - t e r m . These f a i l i n g s were of t h r e e t y p e s ! 1. ) as i n the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n phase, t h e r e was l i t t l e i n t e r a c t i o n — t h e e v a l u a t i o n took p l a c e at a d i s t a n c e ; 2. ) i t was e x - p o s t and t h e r e f o r e c o u l d not c o n t r i b u t e e f f e c t i v e l y t o t h e management of t h e p r o j e c t ; and, 3. ) i t was p r e d o m i n a n t l y n e g a t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l r a t h e r than p o s i t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l — t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s defended t h e i r p o s i t i o n s r a t h e r than a t t e m p t i n g t o f i n d a g r e e a b l e s o l u t i o n s t o t h e i r d i s p u t e s over t h e s c i e n c e . I s h a l l r e t u r n t o t h e s e i s s u e s i n C h a p t e r s 5 and 6 . (98) CHAPTER 5 EXPECTATIONS OF O B J E C T I V I T Y — PHILOSOPHICAL UNDERPINNINGS The f i r s t s t e p t o u n d e r s t a n d i n g of men i e t h e b r i n g i n g t o c o n s c i o u s n e s s of the model or models t h a t dominate and p e n e t r a t e t h e i r thought and a c t i o n . L i k e a l l a t t e m p t s t o make men aware of the c a t e g o r i e s i n which they t h i n k , i t i s a d i f f i c u l t and sometimes p a i n f u l a c t i v i t y , l i k e l y t o produce d e e p l y d i s q u i e t i n g r e s u l t s . The second t a s k i s t o a n a l y s e t h e model i t s e l f , and t h i s commits t h e a n a l y s t t o a c c e p t i n g or m o d i f y i n g or r e j e c t i n g i t , and i n t h e l a s t c a s e , t o p r o v i d i n g a more adequate one i n i t s s t e a d . - - I s a i a h B e r l i n (1962). Our b e l i e f t h a t s c i e n c e h o l d s s p e c i a l v a l i d i t y as a method of r e s o l v i n g d i s p u t e s about the w o r l d a r i s e s from our f a i t h t h a t u n d e r s t a n d i n g d e c r e a s e s argument. S c i e n c e , because we b e l i e v e i t t o be o b j e c t i v e , promotes agreed u n d e r s t a n d i n g s of the n a t u r a l w o r l d and t h u s a l e s s e n i n g of t h e range of d i s p u t e s t h a t a r e p o s s i b l e . T h i s c h a p t e r e x p l o r e s t h e n a t u r e of o b j e c t i v i t y and our r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n s of i t . I c e n t r e t h i s e x p l o r a t i o n on t h e Popper-Kuhn debate. F i r s t I d i s c u s s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s c i e n t i f i c o b j e c t i v i t y and our e x p e c t a t i o n s of s c i e n c e as an a u t h o r i t a t i v e means of s e t t l i n g i s s u e s i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e . U s i n g Popper's c r i t i q u e of t h e p o s i t i v i s t s , I argue t h a t o b j e c t i v i t y i s not so s t a i g h t f o r w a r d a c o ncept as we might w i s h . I then c o n t r a s t Popper and Kuhn's n o t i o n s of t h e s c i e n t i f i c e n t e r p r i s e , and argue t h a t t h e i n c o m m e n s u r a b i l i t y of t h e o r e t i c a l paradigms which Kuhn documented h i s t o r i c a l l y w i t h i n d i s c i p l i n e s , a l s o o c c u r s , i n t h e t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y problems of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e , between d i s c i p l i n e s . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t i n such s i t u t a t i o n s s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s may have t h e i r more i m p o r t a n t o r i g i n s , not i n t h e s u b s t a n t i v e problems t h a t are the a pparent cause of t h e d i s p u t e , but i n t h e a s s u m p t i o n s which d i s c i p l i n a r y p r a c t i t i o n e r s b r i n g t o t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y problems. A. O b j e c t i v i t y and the A u t h o r i t y of S c i e n c e . B e r l i n ' s comment on p o l i t i c a l t h e o r y o r i g i n a t e s from and a p p l i e s e q u a l l y (99) t o s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r y and i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o impact assessment and management. And i t can be i n t e r p r e t e d at two l e v e l s . The f i r s t i s f a i r l y e v i d e n t , and r e f e r s t o our e x p l a n a t i o n s of n a t u r a l , b i o l o g i c a l , and s o c i a l phenomena. Our models of r e a l i t y must be made e x p l i c i t , c h a l l e n g e d , and r e f o r m u l a t e d i f found w a n t i n g . The second l e v e l o p e r a t e s more s u b t l y — i t r e f e r s t o our e x p l a n a t i o n s of t h e v e r y method by which we come t o g e n e r a t e and a c c e p t knowledge. Making t h e s e e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l models more e x p l i c i t , c h a l l e n g i n g them, and on o c c a s i o n r e f o r m u l a t i n g them i s a f a r more t h r e a t e n i n g endeavor than f o r the f i r s t . C hapter 4 argued i n p a r t f o r an approach t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e at t h a t f i r s t l e v e l of our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s ; t h i s c h a p t e r argues f o r an approach at t h e second l e v e l — where does our committment t o s c i e n c e as a way of u n d e r s t a n d i n g the w o r l d l i e , and on what terms ought i t i n f l u e n c e us? The v e r y s u c c e s s t h a t t h e s c i e n t i f i c method a t t a i n e d i n the p r o d u c t i o n of knowledge d e v e l o p e d out of i t s c a p a c i t y t o make our models e x p l i c i t and t o s u b j e c t them t o c r i t i c a l s c r u t i n y . Vet t h i s f e a t u r e of n a t u r a l s c i e n c e was t r u e of p h i l o s o p h y , s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l t h e o r y , and i n f a c t of ev e r y d e v e l o p e d form of human t h o u g h t . However, s c i e n c e m a i n t a i n e d a degree of v e r a c i t y , o b j e c t i v i t y , and a r e l a t i v e freedom from i n c e s s a n t debate which o t h e r c r i t i c a l endeavors appeared t o l a c k (and t h i s r a i s e s t he q u e s t i o n , t o be d e a l t w i t h s h o r t l y , of what i t i s about s c i e n c e which does make i t d i s t i n c t from o t h e r forms of kn o w l e d g e ? ) . As a r e s u l t s c i e n c e , as a p p l i e d t o impact assessment p r o b l e m s , was commonly e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e an e n t i r e l y o b j e c t i v e s o u r c e of p r i s t i n e knowledge t o d e c i s i o n makers and t o be a t o u c h s t o n e which conveyed a u t h o r i t a t i v e c r e d i b i l i t y t o t h e p o s i t i o n s of v a r i o u s p a r t i c i p a n t s i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e b a t e s . For i n s t a n c e , i n t h e Utah c a s e i t i s c l e a r t h a t the Waldichuk and Buchanan r e v i e w was e x p e c t e d t o ( 1 0 0 ) p r o v i d e j u s t such a u t h o r i t a t i v e c r e d i b i l i t y . In t h i s r e s p e c t s c i e n c e was t o be both an e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l s u p p o r t f o r the impact assessment and management p r o c e s s and a method of s o c i a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y v a l i d a t i n g i t s outcome ( r e g a r d l e s s of what t h a t outcome might b e ) . S c i e n c e was e x p e c t e d t o r e s o l v e d e b a t e s o p e r a t i n g at two l e v e l s , one s c i e n t i f i c ( d e a l i n g w i t h t h e n a t u r e of p h y s i c a l , c h e m i c a l , and b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s , f o r i n s t a n c e ) , and the o t h e r p o l i t i c a l (by p r o v i d i n g u n a s s a i l a b l e r e a s o n s f o r d e c i s i o n s ) . C l e a r l y the second c o u l d not be a c h i e v e d w i t h o u t the f i r s t b e i n g s u c c e s s f u l l y u n d e r t a k e n , or at l e a s t a p p e a r i n g t o be s u c c e s s f u l l y u n d e r t a k e n . In f a c t , as I have e a r l i e r d i s c u s s e d , s c i e n c e i n impact assessment and management p r o c e s s e s , and at Utah s p e c i f i c a l l y , was seldom a b l e t o r e s o l v e d i s p u t e s a t t h i s f i r s t l e v e l of agreed e x p l a n a t i o n s of n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s . As tenuous s c i e n c e c o n t i n u e d t o be i n v o k e d a u t h o r i t a t i v e l y by d e c i s i o n makers, t h e impact assessment and management p r o c e s s , and the s c i e n c e t h a t s u p p o r t e d i t , i n c r e a s i n g l y l o s t c r e d i b i l i t y . I t i s i r o n i c t h a t as s c i e n c e has i n c r e a s i n g l y been a p p l i e d t o e n v i r o m e n t a l p r o b l e m s , i t s c r e d i b i l i t y has been eroded (Wynne 1983). T h i s p o i n t forms a c e n t r a l message of t h i s t h e s i s : at t h e f i r s t l e v e l — u n d e r s t a n d i n g n a t u r a l phenomena— we might r e a s o n a b l y have e x p e c t e d t o r e c e i v e more than we have i n t h e way of s c i e n t i f i c s u p p o r t f o r impact assessment and management! but at t h e second l e v e l we have e x p e c t e d too much of what s c i e n c e cannot p r o v i d e — consensus over n o r m a t i v e p o s i t i o n s , judgements over the d i s t r i b u t i v e j u s t i c e of t h e b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of i m p a c t s , and so on. What we might r e a s o n a b l y hope t o a c h i e v e t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of s c i e n c e t o impact assessment and management forms the theme of t h e b a l a n c e of t h i s c h a p t e r . To answer t h i s q u e s t i o n we must r e t u r n t o a q u e s t i o n r a i s e d e a r l i e r . What i s i t about s c i e n c e t h a t g r a n t s i t , e i t h e r i n f a c t or m y t h i c a l l y , t h e (101) l e v e l of s p e c i a l v a l i d i t y we commonly a s s o c i a t e w i t h i t ? Answering t h i s q u e s t i o n r e q u i r e s an e x t e n s i v e d i v e r s i o n i n t o t h e p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e , a d i v e r s i o n which w i l l attempt t o e x p l a i n t h e c o n n e c t i o n s between r e a l i t y and our t h e o r e t i c a l and o b s e r v a t i o n a l c o n s t r u c t s , and the methods s c i e n t i s t s i d e a l l y use t o e l u c i d a t e t h e s e c o n n e c t i o n s . I s h a l l o r g a n i z e t h i s d i s c u s s i o n around t h e Popper-Kuhn debates i t c o v e r s t h e c r i t i c a l i s s u e s and i s w i d e l y f a m i l i a r , though n o t , I b e l i e v e , w i d e l y u n d e r s t o o d . B. From P o s i t i v i s m t o Popper. P o s i t i v i s m , t h e p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e i n vogue w e l l i n t o t h i s c e n t u r y , p o s t u l a t e d t h a t c o n n e c t i o n s between p h y s i c a l r e a l i t y and our t h e o r e t i c a l a c c o u n t s were d i r e c t — t h a t by a p p l y i n g i n d u c t i v e l o g i c t o s e n s o r y p e r c e p t i o n (which was c o n c e i v e d as a r e l a t i v e l y unmediated r e f l e c t i o n of u n d e r l y i n g r e a l i t y ) the u n a s s a i l a b l e and s o l e t r u t h about t h e n a t u r e of p h y s i c a l r e a l i t y c o u l d be u n e a r t h e d . P o s i t i v i s t i c e m p i r i c i s t s d e n i e d t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n was a c e n t r a l f e a t u r e of s c i e n t i f i c argument. We might c o n t r a s t t h i s p o s i t i o n w i t h n a i v e r e a l i s t s , who b e l i e v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t o be easy. T h i s c h a p t e r a rgues t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s both c e n t r a l t o t h e s c i e n t i f i c e n t e r p r i s e , and not s e l f - e v i d e n t . The p o s i t i v i s t b e l i e v e d t h a t n a t u r a l laws e x i s t e d i r r e s p e c t i v e of t h e t i m e or c i r c u m s t a n c e s i n which o b s e r v e r s found t h e m s e l v e s , and were unambiguously p e n e t r a b l e (though not w i t h o u t work and l o g i c ) by our s e n s e s and r a t i o n a l i t y . As l o n g as p o s i t i v i s m m a i n t a i n e d i t s hegemony aB t h e dominant p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e , t h e power of s c i e n c e t o comprehend and a l l o w c o n t r o l of n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s was e n t i r e l y c o m p r e h e n s i b l e and s i m p l y e x p l a i n e d . S c i e n c e was the one and o n l y d i r e c t l i n e t o the t r u t h , a mere r e f l e c t i o n and e x p l a n a t i o n of t h e s e l f - e v i d e n t n a t u r e of t h e u n i v e r s e . ( 1 0 2 ) P o s i t i v i s m was d i s p l a c e d among t h o u g h t f u l s c i e n t i s t s and p h i l o s o p h e r s as a r e s u l t of Popper's c r i t i q u e . However, I m a i n t a i n t h a t i t s f a i t h i n i n d u c t i v e l o g i c as an unambiguous t o o l f o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g s e n s o r y r e a l i t y remained a p e r v a s i v e f o r c e among many s c i e n t i s t s as w e l l as t h e b a l a n c e of the p u b l i c who consumed the p r o d u c t s of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge, i n c l u d i n g t h e impact assessment and management d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s . The e r o s i o n of s c i e n t i f i c p o s i t i v i s m (and t h e v e r i f i c a t i o n i s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t ) at the hands of S i r K a r l Popper t h r e a t e n e d t h e s e c l a i m s t o s u p e r i o r o b j e c t i v i t y , but as Popper r e p l a c e d v e r i f i c a t i o n i s m w i t h h i s own " l o g i c of s c i e n t i f i c d i s c o v e r y " , he b e l i e v e d t h a t a form of a u t h o r i t a t i v e o b j e c t i v i t y might s t i l l be c l a i m e d . In h i s own mind he merely r e p l a c e d a f l a w e d o b j e c t i v i t y w i t h a more c o r r e c t form. He was, however, h o i s t by h i s own p e t a r d : t h e v e r y c r i t e r i a he used t o demarcate s c i e n c e from o t h e r forms of knowledge were used by L a k a t o s , Kuhn, Feyerabend, and o t h e r s t o erode ( i n g r e a t e r or l e s s e r degree) t h a t c l a i m . Though s c i e n c e might not be a r b i t r a r y , i t began t o appear l e s s than p e r f e c t l y o b j e c t i v e . The meaning of " f a c t " became i n c r e a s i n g l y l e s s c e r t a i n . I t began t o appear t h a t s c i e n t i f i c knowledge was i n some form r e l a t i v e , t h a t though i t might more or l e s s approach an u n d e r l y i n g r e a l i t y , no t h e o r e t i c a l account c o u l d ever be t a k e n as d e f i n i t i v e , but i n s t e a d remained embedded i n the c o n c e p t u a l scheme w i t h i n which i t was g e n e r a t e d . The e m p i r i c a l p o s i t i v i s m t h a t Popper c r i t i q u e d assumed t h a t e m p i r i c a l knowledge was founded on d e s c r i p t i o n s of r e a l i t y t h a t were e s s e n t i a l l y ' p r e - t h e o r e t i c a l ' ( t h a t i s , u n i n f l u e n c e d by a s u b j e c t ' s p r i o r e x p l a n a t i o n s ) i n c h a r a c t e r . T h i s e m p i r i c a l knowledge was j o i n e d t o i n d u c t i v e l o g i c t o g e n e r a t e s i m p l y and u n i q u e l y , t h r o u g h a c c r e t i o n , a v e r i f i a b l e p i c t u r e of t h e ( 1 0 3 ) n a t u r a l w o r l d — knowledge which i n e f f e c t t r a n s c e n d e d t h e o r y . Popper's a s s a u l t came on two f r o n t s ! 1. ) i t d e n i e d t h e e s s e n t i a l l y p a s s i v e r e l a t i o n between s u b j e c t and o b j e c t which e m p i r i c a l p o s i t i v i s m demanded by d e m o n s t r a t i n g t h a t t h e r e was no p o s s i b i l i t y of 'a n e u t r a l o b s e r v a t i o n l a n g u a g e ' , t h a t i s , of a method of o b s e r v i n g t h e w o r l d which d i d not i t s e l f c o n t a i n a t h e o r y of r e a l i t y — a l l o b s e r v a t i o n s are t h e o r y - l a d e n and t h e r e f o r e " t h e r e are and can be no s e n s a t i o n s unimpregnated by e x p e c t a t i o n s and t h e r e f o r e t h e r e i s no  n a t u r a l d e m a r c a t i o n between o b s e r v a t i o n a l and t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o s i t i o n s ( L a k a t o s 1970s99); and, 2. ) i t r e p l a c e d i n d u c t i v e l o g i c w i t h d e d u c t i v e l o g i c , a c c e p t i n g e n t i r e l y Hume's a n a l y s i s of t h e problem of i n d u c t i o n ( f o r a cogent i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h i s problem see Salmon [ 1 9 6 6 : 1 - 1 1 ] ) . Popper c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e o r y d i d not n e c e s s a r i l y have t o o r i g i n a t e i n e m p i r i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n , t h a t "though c l a i m s t o knowledge i n s c i e n c e have t o b e g i n somewhere, t h e r e i s nowhere where t h e y have t o b e g i n " (Giddens 1976:14). As l o n g as t h e o r y was s u f f i c i e n t l y p r e c i s e and d e t e r m i n a t e t o g e n e r a t e t e s t a b l e ( t h a t i s , f a l s i f i a b l e ) h y p o t h e s e s t o which c o n t r o l l e d e x p e r i m e n t c o u l d be a p p l i e d , i t met t h e c r i t e r i a f o r d e m a r c a t i n g s c i e n c e from o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s . No t h e o r y c o u l d be v e r i f i e d , o n l y r e f u t e d . Most e v e r y contemporary p h i l o s o p h e r s of s c i e n c e would agree w i t h t h e s e p r e c e p t s i f they were l o o s e l y i n t e r p r e t e d , and t o t h a t e x t e n t be a P o p p e r i a n . E i n s t e i n has put i t w e l l : " t h e o r y cannot be f a b r i c a t e d out of the r e s u l t s of o b s e r v a t i o n , b u t . . . i t can o n l y be i n v e n t e d " (a l e t t e r t o Popper r e p r o d u c e d i n Popper [1959:4581; see S t o k e s [1982] f o r a d i s s e n t i n g v o i c e ) . But o u t s i d e t h e p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e , p o s i t i v i s m remained an i m p l i c i t , though i n s i s t e n t , i n f l u e n c e (because, a f t e r a l l , s c i e n c e works, and the s i m p l i s t e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h e d i r e c t c o n n e c t i o n between e x p e r i e n c e and r e a l i t y which p o s i t i v i s m (104) p o s t u l a t e d ) . One c a n , I b e l i e v e , r e c o g n i z e t h i s p o s i t i v i s t i c i n f l u e n c e i n the d e c i s i o n of the d e s i g n e r s of the Utah m o n i t o r i n g program t h a t " i n i t i a l l y as many c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as p o s s i b l e would be sampled" (Evans 1972). In t h i s emphasis on t h e g r e a t e s t p o s s i b l e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n e x e r c i s e , the UBC IA i m p l i e d a b e l i e f t h a t t h e s e d a t a would i n d e e d speak f o r t h e m s e l v e s . The UBC IA r e p o r t s d i d n o t , i n g e n e r a l , i n t e r p r e t d a t a (I have noted Foreman [19763 and E l l i s [1974, 1976] as e x c e p t i o n s ) . I n s t e a d they merely p r e s e n t e d i t w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o any t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . Once a g a i n , t h i s i m p l i e s t h a t t h e d a t a w i l l speak f o r t h e m s e l v e s . B e f o r e t u r n i n g t o the g e n i e which Popper u n w i t t i n g l y u n l e a s h e d , l e t us c o n s i d e r o t h e r e l e m e n t s of h i s p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r good s c i e n c e — p r e s c r i p t i o n s r e q u i r e d by h i s abandonment of i n d u c t i v e l o g i c a p p l i e d t o s e l f - e v i d e n t o b s e r v a t i o n . Foremost among t h e s e was b o l d n e s s and i n n o v a t i o n i n the i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t ' s g e n e r a t i o n of t h e o r y , and t h e maintenance of a ' c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y ' t h a t i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d c r i t i c a l r e a s o n . B o l d n e s s of c o n j e c t u r e was r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e a c o n s t a n t and s u f f i c i e n t body of t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o s i t i o n s w i t h i n which c o m p e t i t i o n c o u l d o p e r a t e t o e f f e c t i v e l y d i s c a r d t h o s e t h e o r i e s which were l e a s t p r e c i s e or bore up p o o r l y i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d i a l o g u e w i t h n a t u r e . ' C o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y ' or ' c o n s c i o u s n e s s ' was the mechanism by which such winnowing t h r o u g h f a l s i f i c a t i o n o c c u r r e d : ... we ought t o t r y as hard as we can t o o v e r t h r o w our s o l u t i o n , r a t h e r than defend i t . Few of us, u n f o r t u n a t e l y , p r a c t i c e t h i s p r e c e p t ; but o t h e r p e o p l e , f o r t u n a t e l y , w i l l s u p p l y t h e c r i t i c i s m f o r us i f we f a i l t o s u p p l y i t o u r s e l v e s . Yet c r i t i c i s m w i l l be f r u i t f u l o n l y i f we s t a t e our problem as c l e a r l y as we can and put our s o l u t i o n i n a s u f f i c i e n t l y d e f i n i t e f o r m — a form i n which i t can be c r i t i c a l l y d i s c u s s e d (Popper 1959:16). (For a p e r t i n e n t example of c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s , see t h e d e b a t e s over b e n t h i c m o n i t o r i n g d e s i g n i n t h e M a r i n e P o l l u t i o n B u l l e t i n , V o l . 9, 1978). (105) Popper b e l i e v e d t h a t s c i e n c e p r o g r e s s e d t h r o u g h t h e i n c r e a s i n g t e s t a b i l i t y of i t s t h e o r i e s , which i t s e l f was a r e s u l t of the r e f i n e d p r e c i s i o n which b o l d c o n j e c t u r e , tempered by r a d i c a l s c e p t i c i s m , c o n f e r r e d upon them over t i m e (see a l s o Popper 1970). T h i s i n t e r p l a y between the s p e c u l a t i v e i n d i v i d u a l and t h e c o n s e r v a t i v e community p r o v i d e d , a c c o r d i n g t o Popper, t h e l o g i c of s c i e n t i f i c method, and not merely i t s s o c i a l c o n t e x t (Popper 1959). As i s a p p a r e n t , h i s model of t h e e v o l u t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge p a r a l l e l e d b i o l o g i c a l models of a d a p t a t i o n and s u r v i v a l — Popper's i s a D a r w i n i a n s c i e n c e (see K n o r r - C e t i n a ' s e x c e l l e n t d i s c u s s i o n of b i o l o g i c a l a n a l o g i e s of the s u r v i v a l and e v o l u t i o n of t h e o r i e s [ 1 9 8 1 : 1 1 - 1 4 ] ) . And now t o t h e double-headed g e n i e which emerged b e h i n d Popper's back. One head h e l d t h a t t h e f o r m a l c o n d i t i o n s f o r f a l s i f i c a t i o n which Popper had a r t i c u l a t e d ("simple f a l s i f i c a t i o n " , i n L a k a t o s ' terms [1970]) p r e c l u d e d s c i e n c e as i t was i n f a c t u n d e r t a k e n , and c o n t a i n e d l o g i c a l q u a n d a r i e s from which i t c o u l d not r e c o v e r . These q u a n d a r i e s were t h e m s e l v e s t w o f o l d ; on one hand t h e o r i e s were " u n d e r - d e t e r m i n e d by t h e e v i d e n c e " — they were always s u r r o u n d e d by a s e t of c o l l a t e r a l a s s u m p t i o n s (which s e r v e d as a d j u n c t s t o the t h e o r y w i t h o u t b e i n g c e n t r a l t o i t ) which c o u l d be a d j u s t e d as r e q u i r e d t o cope w i t h a p p a r e n t l y r e f u t i n g e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e . In t h i s sense t h e o r e t i c a l systems a r e m a l l e a b l e and accommodating. On t h e o t h e r hand, e v i d e n c e c o u l d be d e n i e d , r e s u l t s c o n s i d e r e d u n r e l i a b l e , and so on (cf_ L a k a t o s ' d i s c u s s i o n of t h e M i c h e l s o n - M o r l e y e x p e r i m e n t , 1970:159-165). The o t h e r head of the g e n i e c o n c e r n e d the n a t u r e of t h e ' o b s e r v a t i o n l a n g u a g e s ' by which s e n s a t i o n s , measurements, and so on ( i m p e r f e c t l y ) r e f l e c t e d r e a l i t y . On one hand e x i s t i n g t h e o r y s u g g e s t s both what i s r e l e v a n t t o o b s e r v e and t h e c h o i c e of a measurement t e c h n i q u e . Theory t h u s < 1 0 6 ) i n p a r t d e t e r m i n e s t h e c o n t e n t of t h e o b s e r v a t i o n . On t h e o t h e r , measurement i t s e l f might i n t r u d e on what was o b s e r v e d . O b s e r v a t i o n s , as opposed t o s e n s o r y e x p e r i e n c e , were ' t h e o r y - l a d e n ' i "We do not "have" an o b s e r v a t i o n (as we may "have" a sense e x p e r i e n c e " but we "make" an o b s e r v a t i o n . . . An o b s e r v a t i o n i s always preceded by a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , a q u e s t i o n , or a p r o b l e m — i n s h o r t , by something t h e o r e t i c a l " (Popper, 1972:342). O b s e r v a t i o n s , t h e n , were c o l o u r e d by our p r i o r a t t e m p t s at e x p l a n a t i o n — t a k e , f o r i n s t a n c e , the case of i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n which depended on an e a r l i e r t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n t o make i t i n t e r p r e t a b l e . Hay's (1981) t h e s i s , which d e f i n e d the t a i l i n g s - i n d u c e d t u r b i d i t y c u r r e n t i n Rupert I n l e t t h r o u g h e c h o - s o u n d i n g , i s such a c a s e . The s e n s o r y d a t a — s e t s of l i n e s on an e c h o - s o u n d e r — a r e i n t h e m s e l v e s m e a n i n g l e s s . Without a t h e o r y of a c o u s t i c b a c k s c a t t e r i n g by suspended p a r t i c u l a t e s , t h e s e " o b s e r v a t i o n s " can o n l y be c o n s i d e r e d " n o i s e " . There i s n o t h i n g i n h e r e n t i n them which p e r m i t s t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . Popper h e l d t h a t though o b s e r v a t i o n languages were not n e u t r a l , they were r e l a t i v e l y e a s i l y t r a n s l a t a b l e and d i d not t h e m s e l v e s c o n s t i t u t e a b a r r i e r t o l o g i c a l t h e o r y c h o i c e : "at any moment we are p r i s o n e r s caught i n the framework of our t h e o r i e s ; our e x p e c t a t i o n s ; our pa s t e x p e r i e n c e s ; our language. But we a r e p r i s o n e r s i n a P i c k w i c k i a n s e n s e : i f we t r y we can break out of our  framework at any t i m e " (Popper 1970:56, emphasis added). The d i f f i c u l t i e s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e t h e o r y - 1 a d e n e s s of o b s e r v a t i o n l a n guages w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n more d e t a i l i n the s e c t i o n on Kuhn; s u f f i c e i t t o say t h a t Popper mistook the ease w i t h which t r a n s l a t i o n was p o s s i b l e and s u f f i c i e n t t o a l l o w communication between t h o s e e s p o u s i n g d i f f e r e n t t h e o r i e s . The e s s e n t i a l p o i n t i s t h a t Popper u n w i t t i n g l y i n t r o d u c e d an element of r e l a t i v i s m i n t o s c i e n c e — t h e o r y c h o i c e c o u l d not merely be the r e s u l t of l o g i c , but a l s o depended on the o b s e r v a t i o n language employed, on the ( 1 0 7 ) s c i e n t i s t ' s e x i s t e n c e as an a c t i v e s u b j e c t " b i o l o g i c a l l y and c u l t u r a l l y  c o n d i t i o n e d , and s i t u a t e d i n a p r o c e s s of h i s t o r i c a l development" (McCarthy  1978;47), and t h e r e f o r e on h i s b e l i e f s , t r a i n i n g , and o t h e r • f a c t o r s . T h i s r e l a t i v i s m (and by t h i s we mean t h a t s c i e n t i f i c knowledge i s not a b s o l u t e but r e l a t e d i n some r e s p e c t t o i t s t h e o r e t i c a l and s o c i a l c o n t e x t ) r e s u l t e d d i r e c t l y from h i s d e m o n s t r a t i o n t h a t t h e r e were no laws or r u l e s t h a t c o u l d t h e m s e l v e s p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t grounds f o r t h e o r y c h o i c e , and w i t h the abandonment of s i m p l e f a l s i f i c a t i o n , no o t h e r e n t i r e l y o b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i a e x i s t e d . C. Opening Pandora's Box; Thomas Kuhn. I f Popper uncapped t h e b a t t l e , i t was Kuhn who gave the g e n i e shape. H i s complex and ambiguous argument d e f i n e d (and many would m a i n t a i n t o a g r e a t e r e x t e n t than he would ever admit) t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of r e l a t i v i s m . The summary g i v e n below must cov e r h i s argument u n e v e n l y ; h i s a m b i g u i t i e s p r e v e n t a s i m p l e e n c a p s u l a t i o n (see Kuhn 1970a; 1970b; 1970c; 1977). Kuhn's n o t i o n s f o c u s e d on what he o r i g i n a l l y c a l l e d paradigms. A paradigm c o n s t i t u t e d a s t a g e w i t h i n a s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e where fundamental q u e s t i o n s ceased t o be debated by s c i e n t i s t s . Upon th e development of a paradigm w i t h i n a d i s c i p l i n e , the e f f o r t s of i t s s c i e n t i s t s t u r n e d i n s t e a d t o e x p l o r i n g the l i m i t s of t h e t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o s i t i o n s which u n d e r l a y i t — t h e t h e o r y posed p u z z l e s which s c i e n t i s t s endeavored t o s o l v e . Paradigms l i n k e d t h e i r p a r t i c i p a n t s i n two ways. F i r s t , t h e y c r e a t e d a community of  l i k e - m i n d e d s c i e n t i s t s who were i n c o n s t a n t communication w i t h each o t h e r t h r o u g h c i t a t i o n c i r c l e s , r e s e a r c h f u n d i n g , and t h e l i k e . Second, e x p o s u r e  t o a c o r e of e x p e r i m e n t a l e x e m p l a r s common t o t h e d i s c i p l i n e c r e a t e d and  e n f o r c e d both a h i g h degree of mutual c o n c e p t u a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g and agreement (108) over what c o n s t i t u t e d a c c e p t a b l e e v i d e n c e and reas o n e d t h e o r e t i c a l argument. Kuhn s u g g e s t s t h a t s c i e n t i f i c paradigms i n i t i a l l y emerged from a s e t of competing s c h o o l s of thought about how n a t u r a l e v e n t s might be e x p l a i n e d . These competing s c h o o l s c o n s t a n t l y debated f u n d a m e n t a l s ; e v e r y argument began at the b e g i n n i n g . In such a s i t u a t i o n no p r o g r e s s was p o s s i b l e and b e l i e f s about t h e w o r l d c o u l d be h e l d o n l y on e n t i r e l y p h i l o s o p h i c a l , e t h i c a l , or a r b i t r a r y grounds. A s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e emerged from t h i s p r e - p a r a d i g m a t i c p e r i o d when one paradigm became p r e - e m i n e n t , and commonly a c c e p t e d t h e o r y , l a w s , i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n , and t r a i n i n g became e v i d e n t — i n g e n e r a l , when a common t h e o r y , o b s e r v a t i o n l a n g u a g e , and d i s c i p l i n a r y community emerged. The c o n d i t i o n of a common paradigm r e s u l t e d i n 'normal s c i e n c e ' , where c r i t i c a l r e a s o n about b a s i c t h e o r e t i c a l p r i n c i p l e s was i n f a c t suspended i n f a v o r of p u z z l e s o l v i n g b e h a v i o r i n which i t was t h e s c i e n t i s t ' s i n g e n u i t y and f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h e paradigm which was t e s t e d , not t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e of the d i s c i p l i n e i t s e l f ( note t h a t t h i s i s e x a c t l y t he o p p o s i t e of Popper's s t r i c t u r e s ) . D u r i n g p e r i o d s of normal s c i e n c e , p r o g r e s s i n the p r o d u c t i o n of knowledge was i n c r e m e n t a l l y a c c u m u l a t i v e : Because t h e y can o r d i n a r i l y t a k e c u r r e n t t h e o r y f o r g r a n t e d , e x p l o i t i n g r a t h e r than c r i t i c i z i n g i t , t he p r a c t i t i o n e r s of mature s c i e n c e s a r e f r e e d t o e x p l o r e n a t u r e t o an e s o t e r i c depth and d e t a i l o t h e r w i s e u n i m a g i n a b l e (Kuhn 1970c:247). T h i s e x t e n s i o n of a s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e ' s paradigm t o i t s l i m i t s was i t s v e r y s t r e n g t h , f o r i n t h e p r o c e s s i t e v e n t u a l l y g e n e r a t e d e m p i r i c a l a n o m a l i e s s u f f i c i e n t t o p r e c i p i t a t e a c r i s i s (though what was ' s u f f i c i e n t ' was not i t s e l f e a s i l y d e t e r m i n e d ) . C r i s i s c o u l d a l s o be i n s t i g a t e d from o u t s i d e the paradigm, as where a r e v o l u t i o n i n a p r e v i o u s l y u n r e l a t e d ( 1 0 9 ) d i s c i p l i n e had t h e o r e t i c a l consequences f o r a n o t h e r : or where new i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n or m a t h e m a t i c a l t o o l s had a s i m i l a r e f f e c t - - R achael Carson's book S i l e n t S p r i n g which p r e c i p i t a t e d a r e c o n s t i t u t i o n of entomology by a p p l y i n g the t h e o r e t i c a l p r e c e p t s of e c o l o g y t o t h e use of p e s t i c i d e s p r o v i d e s a p e r t i n e n t example of t h e f i r s t s o r t ( P e r k i n s 1984:4); t h e use of n o n - i n t r u s i v e and r e l a t i v e l y d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s such as s u b m e r s i b l e s or p h o t o g r a p h i c r e c o r d s of b e n t h i c t r a n s e c t s t o r e p l a c e grab s a m p l i n g and b e n t h i c t r a w l i n g might be an example of the second. Such a c r i s i s r e - e s t a b l i s h e d the debate over f u n d a m e n t a l s (Popper's r a d i c a l s c e p t i c i s m ) , and might g e n e r a t e a competing t h e o r y and paradigm. At t h i s p o i n t , and not b e f o r e , a ' g e s t a l t s w i t c h ' or ' c o n v e r s i o n e x p e r i e n c e ' might o c c u r , where s c i e n t i s t s abandoned t h e e a r l i e r paradigm i n f a v o r of i t s c o m p e t i t o r . The change was a c o n v e r s i o n e x p e r i e n c e because of t h e i n c o m m e n s u r a b i l i t y of p a r a d i g m s — because t h e y depended on d i f f e r e n t o b s e r v a t i o n l a n guages and exemplars they c o u l d not be r e a d i l y compared. O b s e r v a t i o n languages were seen by Kuhn as l e s s a c c u r a t e l y t r a n s l a t a b l e than e v e r y d a y language; t h e s c i e n t i f i c meaning of words and c o n c e p t s was more p r e c i s e and r i g i d and t h e r e f o r e they c o u l d o n l y l o o s e l y and w i t h d i f f i c u l t y be conveyed t o t h o s e not p o s s e s s i n g t h e e x p e r i e n t i a l and t h e o r e t i c a l background common t o t h o s e s h a r i n g t h e paradigm. I t was because o b s e r v a t i o n l a n g u a g e s t h e m s e l v e s grew out of t h o s e s h a r e d e xemplars of t h e d i s c i p l i n e (which r e l a t e d e m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n s t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s t r u c t s which u n d e r l a y the paradigm) t h a t t r a n s l a t i o n was d i f f i c u l t . Because of t h i s , t r a n s l a t i o n between t h o s e not s h a r i n g the p a r a d i g m a t i c e x p e r i e n c e (and t h u s the same o b s e r v a t i o n language) c o u l d never be more than i m p r e c i s e , and d e a l t h a r s h l y w i t h the s y m b o l i c c a t e g o r i e s of each l a n g u a g e , and t h e r e f o r e communication c o u l d o n l y be p a r t i a l when i t depended on t r a n s l a t i o n . What was r e q u i r e d of the s c i e n t i s t was t h a t he l e a r n t h e new o b s e r v a t i o n language ( 1 1 0 ) and make i t h i s own, or i n o t h e r words, be c o n v e r t e d t o s e e i n g t h e w o r l d i n a  new way. "Proponents of d i f f e r e n t t h e o r i e s . . . . speak d i f f e r e n t l a n g u a g e s — l a n g u a g e s e x p r e s s i n g d i f f e r e n t c o g n i t i v e commitments, s u i t a b l e f o r d i f f e r e n t w o r l d s . T h e i r a b i l i t i e s t o grasp each o t h e r ' s v i e w p o i n t s a r e t h e r e f o r e i n e v i t a b l y l i m i t e d by t h e i m p e r f e c t i o n s of t h e p r o c e s s of t r a n s l a t i o n and of r e f e r e n c e d e t e r m i n a t i o n (Kuhn 1 9 7 7 i x x i i i ) . T h i s g e s t a l t s w i t c h was based on p e r s u a s i o n , but on p e r s u a s i o n r e a s o n a b l y baBed, and t h e r e f o r e not a r b i t r a r y . However, because no p r o c e d u r a l r u l e s g o v e r n i n g t h e o r y c h o i c e c o u l d a p p l y , r h e t o r i c , t h e a e s t h e t i c appeal of t h e new t h e o r y , or t h e p r o s p e c t of a r e t u r n t o the s e c u r e p u z z l e - s o l v i n g b e h a v i o r t y p i c a l of normal s c i e n c e c o u l d a l l be l e g i t i m a t e arguments i n f a v o r of a new paradigm. The new paradigm was p r e v e n t e d from b e i n g a r b i t r a r y by i t s need t o accommodate u n d e r l y i n g e m p i r i c a l r e a l i t i e s , but t h i s n e c e s s i t y c o n s t r a i n e d t h e o r y c h o i c e w i t h o u t d e t e r m i n i n g i t . Though Kuhn d e v e l o p e d h i s t h e o r y of incommensurable t h e o r e t i c a l and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s t h r o u g h h i s s t u d y of t h e h i s t o r y of s c i e n t i f i c r e v o l u t i o n s , h i s arguments have some a p p l i c a b i l i t y t o d i s p u t e s or m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g s between d i s c i p l i n e s . In p a r t i c u l a r t h a grounds f o r t h e a c c e p t a n c e of e v i d e n c e as c r e d i b l e v a r i e s between d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n e s , as do t h e c o n v e n t i o n s which d e t e r m i n e what a re r e a s o n a b l e arguments or p r o o f s (Kuhn 1977). Though b i o l o g i s t s might be c o m f o r t a b l e w i t h p r o b a b a l i s t i c d e s c r i p t i o n s and e x p l a n a t i o n s of t h e w o r l d , e n g i n e e r s c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o d e s i r e d e t e r m i n i s t i c e x p l a n a t i o n s , and t h e r e f o r e f i n d t h e approaches of b i o l o g i s t s u n p a l a t a b l e . In a d d i t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r problem s i t u a t i o n s can be i n t e r p r e t e d v e r y d i f f e r e n t l y by s c i e n t i s t s coming from d i f f e r e n t p aradigms. In t h i s case one's t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e can d e t e r m i n e what one i n t e r p r e t s t o be t h e b i o l o g i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t impact of b e n t h i c d e p o s i t i o n of t a i l i n g s , ( I l l ) f o r i n s t a n c e . C h e m ists s p e c i a l i z i n g i n t o x i c m e t a l s frame t h i s problem i n terms of t h e t h e o r i e s a v a i l a b l e t o them, w h i l e b e n t h i c e c o l o g i s t s i n t e r e s t e d i n t r o p h i c l i n k a g e s between b e n t h i c m e r o p l a n k t o n ( t h e l a r v a l s t a g e s of b e n t h i c a n i m a l s p r e s e n t i n p e l a g i c z o o p l a n k t o n ) and z o o p l a n k t o n g r a z e r s frame t h i s problem i n an e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t manner. Though i t might be argued t h a t t h i s m e rely p o i n t s t o the m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y n a t u r e of impact assessment and management p r o b l e m s , and t h e consequent n e c e s s i t y f o r i n v o l v i n g s c i e n t i s t s from t h e range of r e l e v a n t d i s c i p l i n e s , " r e l e v a n c e " i s i t s e l f d e t e r m i n e d i n p a r t on t h e o r e t i c a l grounds which may o n l y be a v a i l a b l e t o s p e c i a l i s t p r a c t i c i o n e r s . The l a c k of s h a r e d t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s can i t s e l f l e a d t o d i s p u t e s over t h e a p p r o p r i a t e f r a m i n g of t h e s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s posed by an e n v i r o n m e n t a l d i s t u r b a n c e . S c i e n c e n e c e s s a r i l y i n t e r s p e r s e d p e r i o d s of normal s c i e n c e w i t h r e v o l u t i o n a r y p e r i o d s , where knowledge was not added i n c r e m e n t a l l y , but by a r e s t r u c t u r i n g of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e o r y and n a t u r e . Popper's f a l s i f i c a t i o n might be used w i t h i n a p e r i o d of normal s c i e n c e t o g u i d e r e l i a b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n s of a t h e o r y or i t s c o l l a t e r a l a s s u m p t i o n s , but d u r i n g p e r i o d s of r e v o l u t i o n no such c r i t e r i a c o u l d a p p l y ! The c r i t e r i a w i t h which s c i e n t i s t s d e t e r m i n e t h e v a l i d i t y of an a r t i c u l a t i o n or an a p p l i c a t i o n of e x i s t i n g t h e o r y a r e not by t h e m s e l v e s s u f f i c i e n t t o d e t e r m i n e t h e c h o i c e between competing t h e o r i e s (Kuhn 1970b.19). There a r e two commonly noted problems w i t h Kuhn's a n a l y s i s ( f o r comprehensive d i s c u s s i o n s see L a k a t o s and Musgrave, eds. 1970, Giddens 1976, and B e r n s t e i n 1976). The f i r s t c o n c e r n s t h e d e f i n i t i o n of "paradigm". Master-man ( 1 9 7 0 ) , a s y m p a t h e t i c c r i t i c , has found 21 d i f f e r e n t ways i n which "paradigm" i s used. Kuhn, on r e f l e c t i o n (and i n some dismay at t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e concept of "paradigms" had been i m p e r i a l i z e d i n a p p r o p r i a t e l y - - t h e ( 1 1 2 ) p l a n n i n g t h e o r y l i t e r a t u r e i s an a r c h e t y p a l e x a m p l e ) , f e l t t h a t t h e s e f e l l e s s e n t i a l l y i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s . On the one hand, i t s t a n d s f o r the e n t i r e c o n s t e l l a t i o n of b e l i e f s , v a l u e s , t e c h n i q u e s , and so on s h a r e d by t h e members of a g i v e n community. On the o t h e r , i t denotes one s o r t of element i n t h a t c o n s t e l l a t i o n , t h e c o n c r e t e p u z z l e - s o l u t i o n s w h i c h , employed as models or examples, can r e p l a c e e x p l i c i t r u l e s as a b a s i s f o r t h e s o l u t i o n of the r e m a i n i n g p u z z l e s of normal s c i e n c e (Kuhn 1 9 7 0 a i 1 7 5 ) . Paradigms a re t h e r e f o r e e i t h e r b e l i e f s h e l d by communities of s c i e n t i s t s who t o some e x t e n t s h a r e common t r a i n i n g , v a l u e s , c i t a t i o n c i r c l e s , and o t h e r s o c i a l a t t r i b u t e s — and we s h a l l h e n c e f o r t h c a l l t h e s e d i s c i p l i n a r y c o m m u n i t i e s — or more i m p o r t a n t l y , paradigms a r e t h e c o n c e p t u a l u n d e r p i n n i n g s of a s e t of c o - p a r t i c i p a n t s i n an o b s e r v a t i o n language and t h e o r y d e v e l o p e d t h r o u g h t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h common exe m p l a r s (problem s e t s , e x p e r i m e n t s , or o t h e r c o n f r o n t a t i o n s w i t h r e a l i t y t h a t add s u b s t a n c e t o t h e i r t h e o r y ) — which w i l l be c a l l e d m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigms (by ' m e t h o d o l o g i c a l ' I do not merely r e f e r t o i n s t r u m e n t a l p r a c t i c e , but a l s o t o s h a r e d s t a n d a r d s of e v i d e n c e , argument, and so o n ) . T h e i r c o n c e p t u a l a p p r e c i a t i o n of the w o r l d i s s i m i l a r because i t i s a c o n t r i v e d e x p l o r a t i o n of r e a l i t y c a r r i e d out w i t h i n t he c o n f i n e s of t h e i r d i s c i p l i n e . And t h e v e r y s t r e n g t h of t h e i r s c i e n c e r e s u l t s from an e x p l o r a t i o n t h a t i s c o n t r i v e d . I t i s t h i s c o n t r i v a n c e which makes t h e i r work m u t u a l l y c o m p r e h e n s i b l e and r e p l i c a b l e ( r e p l i c a b i l i t y w i l l l a t e r be d i s c u s s e d as the key f e a t u r e i n s c i e n t i s t s mediated c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h r e a l i t y ) . These two n o t i o n s of paradigm a r e r e l a t e d i n p r a c t i c e , but t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s a r e r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t . The f i r s t l e a d s us t o i d e n t i f y a s o c i a l community, whose s h a r e d v a l u e s and b e l i e f s a r e a r e s u l t of s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n — but t h e r e i s n o t h i n g mandatory about the e x t e n t t o which t h e s e a t t r i b u t e s a r e sh a r e d or t h e e f f e c t they have on t h e development of t h e d i s c i p l i n e ; t h e second i s o l a t e s a community whose o n l y p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r membership i s a mutual a b i l i t y t o communicate c o n c e p t s r e l a t i v e l y unambiguously. T h i s s h a r i n g of c o n c e p t u a l u n d e r p i n n i n g s and ( 1 1 3 ) a s s u m p t i o n s i s t h e r e s u l t of an e d u c a t i o n which c r e a t e s i n t e r - s u b j e c t i v i t y , a j o i n t l y d e v e l o p e d u n d e r s t a n d i n g not o n l y of the f a c t s of the n a t u r a l w o r l d , but of t h e terms and c o n d i t i o n s under which t h e y can be i n t e r p r e t e d . The second problem c o n c e r n s t h e o r y c h o i c e . On one hand Kuhn has been damned f o r an unwarranted b e l i e f t h a t he a d v o c a t e s "mob r u l e " ( i e . , consensus) as t h e o n l y grounds on which t o choose between competing t h e o r i e s (Popper 1970), and on t h e o t h e r h i s i n s i s t e n c e t h a t t h e o r y c h o i c e remains i n p a r t a reasoned p r o c e s s has been c r i t i c i z e d as f a l l i n g v i c t i m t o h i s own arguments ( i e . , t h e o r y c h o i c e i s u l t i m a t e l y based on v a l u e s ) . R e s o l v i n g t h e s e d i s p a r a t e views r e q u i r e s d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between two forms of r e l a t i v i s m ! e p i s t e m i c r e l a t i v i s m and judgemental r e l a t i v i s m . E p i s t e m i c r e l a t i v i s t s l o c a t e s knowledge h i s t o r i c a l l y , c u l t u r a l l y , and l i n g u i s t i c a l l y . They m a i n t a i n t h a t our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the w o r l d e x i s t s w i t h i n an u n a v o i d a b l e c o n t e x t composed of our p r e s e n t and p a s t e x p e r i e n c e s , t h e o r e t i c a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g s , and s o c i a l l i f e . T h i s i s not t o suggest t h a t s c i e n t i f i c knowledge i s u n w a r r a n t e d , but r a t h e r t o suggest t h a t i t can never be a b s o l u t e . Knowledge i s r e l a t i v e t o t h e system i t i n h a b i t s — Kuhn m a i n t a i n s t h i s form of r e l a t i v i s m . C o n t r a r i l y , judgemental r e l a t i v i s t s c l a i m s t h a t a l l forms of knowledge a r e e q u a l l y v a l i d and t h a t no grounds e x i s t f o r r e a s o n a b l y d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between them-- f a s c i s m and l i b e r a l i s m a r e by t h i s n o t i o n made the o b j e c t of p r e f e r e n c e not r e a s o n (as a r e Newtonian mechanics and r e l a t i v i t y ) . Judgemental r e l a t i v i s m i s p a r a d o x i c a l and t h e r e f o r e s e l f - r e f u t i n g ! i t p r e c l u d e s t h e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s which g e n e r a t e d i t . Kuhn does not s u b s c r i b e t o t h i s form of r e l a t i v i s m . A l l knowledge i s based on p r e m i s e s such as t h e mutual a c c e p t a n c e of a language which makes communication p o s s i b l e or t h e t h e o r e t i c a l n o t i o n s which e x p l a i n i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n , and a r e t h e r e b y c o n t e x t u a l . T h i s i s a l o g i c a l consequence (114) of t h e l a c k of r u l e s f o r d e c i d i n g between t h e o r i e s and of t h e l a c k of a n e u t r a l o b s e r v a t i o n language. But the " a c c u r a c y , s c o p e , s i m p l i c i t y , f r u i t f u l n e s s , and the l i k e " (Kuhn 1970c1261) of t h e o r i e s p r o v i d e r e a s o n s on which s c i e n t i s t s commonly base t h e i r c h o i c e s — t h e s e c h o i c e s are not a r b i t r a r y nor merely t h e s u b j e c t of p r e f e r e n c e . I t s h o u l d be c l e a r from t h e f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n of Popper and Kuhn t h a t i n a v e r y r e a l sense Popper's p o s i t i o n i s p r e s c r i p t i v e , w h i l e Kuhn's i s p r i m a r i l y (though not e n t i r e l y ) d e s c r i p t i v e and p r a g m a t i c . For P o pper, s c i e n c e i s not s c i e n t i f i c u n l e s s h i s n o r m a t i v e p r e s c r i p t i o n s a r e i n p l a c e ; f o r Kuhn, s c i e n c e o b v i o u s l y works as i t i s i n f a c t u n d e r t a k e n , and t h e r e f o r e a p e n e t r a t i n g a n a l y s i s of i t s a c t u a l p r a c t i c e c a r r i e s elements of p r e s c r i p t i o n r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r p h i l o s o p h i c a l u n d e r p i n n i n g s . A s i d e from t h i s c e n t r a l p o i n t , t h e i s s u e s which d i v i d e them can be c a t e g o r i z e d a s i m e t h o d o l o g i c a l i s s u e s (how i s s c i e n t i f i c knowledge p r o d u c e d ? ) ; i s s u e s of t h e o r y c h o i c e (how can competing knowledge c l a i m s be e v a l u a t e d ? ) ; and t h e e x t e n t t o which knowledge must be e p i s t e m i c a l l y r e l a t i v i s t i c . I w i l l now b r i e f l y l o c a t e L a k a t o s and Feyerabend w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s e i s s u e s . D. T r y i n g Out the C o n t e n t s i L a k a t o s and Feyerabend. I n t r i g u e i n g l y , L a k a t o s ' v i s i o n of what s c i e n c e i_s_ c o r r e s p o n d s c l o s e l y w i t h Kuhn's; h i s v i s i o n of what i t ought t o be w i t h Popper's ( c f _ L a k a t o s 1970 and Kuhn's commentary on i t C1970c3). Popper and L a k a t o s a r e h o p e l e s s l y l o s t i n P l a t o ' s ' t h i r d w o r l d ' of i d e a l i s m ( L a k a t o s 1970(179-180), an i d e a l i s m which even c o l o r s L a k a t o s r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e congruence of h i s i d e a s w i t h Kuhn's. L a k a t o s d e s c r i b e s h i s p o s i t i o n as a n o r m a t i v e one, yet h i s d e s c r i p t i o n of s c i e n c e d i f f e r s from Kuhn more as a matter of the words he uses than of the form or c o n t e n t of h i s i d e a s . For example, h i s ( 1 1 5 ) ' s o p h i s t i c a t e d m e t h o d o l o g i c a l f a l s i -f i c a t i o n i s m ' d e s c r i b e s Kuhn's t r a n s i t i o n between normal and e x t r a o r d i n a r y s c i e n c e ( f o r i n s t a n c e , e a r l i e r t h e o r i e s a re not abandoned w i t h o u t t h e r e b e i n g a l t e r n a t e s which can s u p p o r t normal s c i e n t i f i c a c t i v i t y ) . L a k a t o B ' ' r e s e a r c h programmes' c o r r e s p o n d t o Kuhn's normal s c i e n c e ( w i t h i t s emphasis on t h e t e n a c i o u s e x p l o r a t i o n of t h e l i m i t s of t h e programme or p a r a d i g m ) ; h i s 'hard c o r e ' or ' n e g a t i v e h e u r i s t i c ' t o the e x e m p l a r s of normal s c i e n c e ; and h i s ' p o s i t i v e h e u r i s t i c ' of s u b s t a n t i v e q u e s t i o n s t o Kuhn's p u z z l e - s o l v i n g a c t i v i t i e s . H i s d e m a r c a t i o n c r i t e r i a , the 'mature s c i e n c e ' of r e s e a r c h programmes, e x a c t l y p a r a l l e l s t h a t of Kuhn, t h e p u z z l e s o l v i n g t r a n s i t i o n t o normal s c i e n c e . The p o i n t s at which L a k a t o s d i s t i g u i s h e s h i m s e l f from Kuhn r e l a t e s p e c i f i c a l l y t o h i s i d e a l i s m - - h i s c l a i m s f o r an o b j e c t i v e s c i e n c e , l i k e P o p p e r ' s , r e s t u l t i m a t e l y on t h e e x i s t e n c e of the ' t h i r d w o r l d ' of i n c o r p o r e a l i d e a s . The ease and a c c u r a c y of t h e t r a n s l a t i o n of o b s e r v a t i o n l a n g uages which a l o n e would make t h e o r i e s o r i g i n a t i n g i n d i f f e r e n t r e s e a r c h programmes (or paradigms, or whatever one might d e c i d e t o c a l l them) commensurable depends on an a c c e p t a n c e of t h e i d e a l i s m of the ' t h i r d w o r l d ' . Popper and L a k a t o s ' o b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i a f o r d e c i s i o n s on t h e o r y c h o i c e must p o s t u l a t e some form of c o n c e p t u a l i d e a l i s m ; Kuhn's l i n g u i s t i c i n t e r p r e t a t i o n p r e c l u d e s i t . For Popper c o n c e p t s e x i s t i d e a l l y ; f o r Kuhn they d e v e l o p t h r o u g h o s t e n s i o n , by i n i t i a t e s b e i n g shown t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s i n the e m p i r i c a l w o r l d ( i t i s t h e p r o c e s s of o s t e n s i o n which u n d e r l i e s Kuhn's e x e m p l a r s ) . T h i s i s not a s c i e n t i f i c p o i n t — i t i s a m e t a p h y s i c a l one which d i v i d e s them. The weight of p h i l o s o p h i c a l thought s i d e s w i t h Kuhn on t h i s i s s u e . But t h e argument l i e s beyond the c o n f i n e s of t h i s t h e s i s . I c o n c l u d e t h a t L a k a t o s i s , f o r the same r e a s o n s as Popper, an e p i s t e m i c r e l a t i v i s t , but not an a d m i t t e d one. (116) The above c r i t i q u e of L a k a t o s s u g g e s t s t h a t h i s a n a l y s i s o n l y p a r a l l e l s Kuhn's w i t h o u t o f f e r i n g any p a r t i c u l a r i n s i g h t s . T h i s would be u n f a i r . The c o n f r o n t a t i o n between L a k a t o s and Kuhn r e q u i r e d t h e l a t t e r t o r e t h i n k and most p a r t i c u l a r l y make more e x p l i c i t t h e e a r l i e r p r e s e n t a t i o n of h i s i d e a s . And L a k a t o s i n t h e p r o c e s s both r e s u s i t a t e d Popper and provoked t h e c l a r i f i c a t i o n of much of Kuhn's ambiguous t h o u g h t . Feyerabend's e v a n g e l i c a l s u p p o r t f o r an ' a n a r c h i s t i c t h e o r y of knowledge' i n A g a i n s t Method (197S) has been i n c o r r e c t l y i n t e r p r e t e d as a s t a n d i n f a v o r of judgemental r e l a t i v i s m . In f a c t , i t combines elements of Kuhn's p o s i t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i n c o m m e n s u r a b i l i t y of paradigms (Feyerabend views the t r a n s l a t i o n of o b s e r v a t i o n languages a s , i f a n y t h i n g , more d i f f i c u l t than would Kuhn [Feyerabend 1970s219-225]) w i t h t h e c o n f r o n t a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s between v a r y i n g t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n s t h a t i s so t y p i c a l of Popper. But Feyerabend h o l d s t h e second p a r t of t h i s view not because of t h e ' l o g i c ' of s c i e n c e , but out of a b e l i e f i n i n d i v i d u a l i s t i c h u m a n i t a r i a n i s m . H i s s c i e n t i f i c (as opposed t o p o l i t i c a l ) a n a r c h i s m r e s u l t s from c o n c e r n s about the e f f e c t s of dogmatism, c o n c e r n s which a r e a g a i n m e t a p h y s i c a l and beyond t h e p u r v i e w of s c i e n c e i t s e l f . They a r e c l e a r l y v a l u e - d r i v e n , and he i s e x p l i c i t i n h i s r e c o g n i t i o n of t h i s . A c c e p t a n c e of h i s p o s i t i o n , as opposed t o Kuhn and L a k a t o s ' , depends upon judgements c o n c e r n i n g the r e l a t i v e m e r i t s and dangers of e x p l o r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e o r i e s v e r s u s c o n f r o n t a t i o n s between t h e m — and t h e s e a r e e s s e n t i a l l y t a c t i c a l i s s u e s . The v e r y h u m a n i t a r i a n i s m on which Feyerabend b u i l d s h i s p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t he doesn't m a i n t a i n t h a t a l l t h e o r i e s a r e e q u a l l y t e n a b l e (and he i s t h e r e f o r e not a judgemental r e l a t i v i s t ) , but h i s f a i l u r e t o p r o v i d e any grounds on which t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between t h e o r i e s has l B f t him (117) open t o t h i s c h a r g e . E. C r i t i c a l C o n s c i o u s n e s s at Utah. Though Popper proposed h i s " c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s " as a method of s e l e c t i n g between c o n j e c t u r e d t h e o r i e s , Kuhn's a n a l y s i s has su g g e s t e d t h a t i t has o t h e r uses. D u r i n g p e r i o d s of normal s c i e n c e i t t e s t s t h e s c i e n t i s t r a t h e r than the t h e o r y ; d u r i n g r e v o l u t i o n a r y p e r i o d s i n the development of a d i s c i p l i n e i t e v a l u a t e s a l t e r n a t e t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e s ; and at a l l t i m e s i t s h o u l d e v a l u a t e and make a v a i l a b l e t h e r e l e v a n c e of d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n e s ' t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s of a p a r t i c u l a r t r a n s - d i s c i p l i n a r y problem. Though i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o a p p l y a l l of t h e i d e a s d e v e l o p e d from the Popper-Kuhn d e b a t e , I s h a l l now i n d i c a t e how t h i s c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y might have o p e r a t e d at v a r i o u s p o i n t s i n t h e s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s s u r r o u n d i n g the Utah c a s e . 1. F j o r d C i r c u l a t i o n ! The F a i l u r e of C r i t i c a l C o n s c i o u s n e s s ? The f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e Rupert I n l e t as a dynamic f j o r d s t a n d s out as the g r e a t e s t m i s t a k e made d u r i n g t h e o r i g i n a l p e r m i t r e v i e w of t h e I s l a n d Copper. S e v e r a l r e a s o n s can be sug g e s t e d f o r t h i s f a i l u r e s a. ) t h e r e was i n s u f f i c i e n t f i e l d w o r k t o d e t e r m i n e whether deep water c u r r e n t s e x i s t e d or were of s u f f i c i e n t v e l o c i t y t o res u s p e n d t a i l i n g s ; b. ) t h e p h y s i c a l and c h e m i c a l p a r a m e t e r s of t h e water column c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d a m b i g u o u s l y and a g a i n o n l y l i m i t e d f i e l d d a t a was a v a i l a b l e ; c. ) the main i n t e r e s t s of t h e PCB and DFF were t o a v o i d l a n d d i s p o s a l , and t h e i r a s s e s sments of the marine d i s p o s a l o p t i o n may have been c o l o u r e d by t h i s o v e r - r i d i n g c o n c e r n ; and, d. ) t h e company's own s t r o n g i n t e r e s t s i n o b t a i n i n g a p e r m i t m o t i v a t e d i t not t o c o l l e c t p o s s i b l y damning e v i d e n c e and t o i n t e r p r e t ambiguous (11S) e v i d e n c e ( l i k e t h a t c o l l e c t e d by B.C. Research) t o conform w i t h i t s p o s i t i o n i n f a v o u r of marine d i s c h a r g e . However, i t i s i n s t r u c t i v e t o note t h a t a l t h o u g h the anomalous t e m p e r a t u r e , oxygen c o n c e n t r a t i o n , and s a l i n i t y d a t a had been r e c o g n i z e d by P i c k a r d ( 1 9 6 8 ) , by Moore ( 1 9 7 3 ) , and w i t h i n the PCB ( f i l e 026100-PE-379), no e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e s e a n o m a l i e s had been propo s e d . Throughout t h i s p e r i o d , o c e a n o g r a p h e r s e x p l a i n e d f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n e n t i r e l y i n terms of t h e t w o - l a y e r e s t u a r i n e c i r c u l a t i o n model d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 2 ( p e r s o n a l communication, D. S t u c c h i ) . A l t h o u g h t h e s e a n o m a l i e s c o n t r i b u t e d t o unease r e g a r d i n g f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n , they d i d not i n t h e m s e l v e s , and i n the absence of an a l t e r n a t e  e x p l a n a t i o n , p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t cause t o abandon or exte n d t h e e x i s t i n g model of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n . G i ven t h e l i m i t e d o c e a n o g r a p h i c d a t a a v a i l a b l e , i t c o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s were u n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of p r e v a i l i n g c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e i n l e t . W a l d i c h u k ' s d a t a does i n d i c a t e some s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of t e m p e r a t u r e , s a l i n i t y and oxygen c o n c e n t r a t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y at s t a t i o n s o t h e r than the one i m m e d i a t e l y i n f r o n t of Q u a t s i n o Narrows (DFF f i l e 34-3-R2). The i s s u e , t h e r e f o r e , was not t h a t s t r a t i f i c a t i o n wa6 so e v i d e n t l y not i n e x i s t e n c e t h a t t h e t w o - l a y e r f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n model c o u l d not be a p p l i e d , but r a t h e r what degree of s t r a t i f i c a t i o n made the t w o - l a y e r c i r c u l a t i o n model t e n a b l e ? Over t h i s t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e d i s p u t e d i s a g r e e d , but t h e di s a g r e e m e n t was over an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of ambiguous d a t a , and was t h e r e f o r e a judgement. In t h e c a s e of B.C. R e s e a r c h ' s c u r r e n t measurements, t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s were q u e s t i o n e d as t o t h e i r v a l i d i t y ( Johnson, i n Utah 1971). I t was s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e t e c h n i q u e used was i n a p p r o p r i a t e and had not i n f a c t measured c u r r e n t s , but some a r t e f a c t . T h i s same c r i t i q u e s u g g e s t e d t h a t , on t h e o r e t i c a l g r o u n d s , bottom c u r r e n t s c o u l d not be of s u f f i c i e n t v e l o c i t y t o ( 1 1 9 ) r e s u s p e n d s e d i m e n t s . The f a i l u r e t o t a k e more e x t e n s i v e and c o n t r o l l e d c u r r e n t measurements was, I b e l i e v e , an example of t h e " t h e o r y - l a d e n e s s " of o b s e r v a t i o n . The t h e o r y d i d not p r e d i c t bottom c u r r e n t s , t h e r e f o r e they were not c o n s i d e r e d as an i m p o r t a n t element of the d a t a t o be c o l l e c t e d f o r the assessment. In t h i s i n s t a n c e t h e t w o - l a y e r c i r c u l a t i o n model d i r e c t e d a t t e n t i o n at some " o b s e r v a b l e s " , and not at o t h e r s . Not o n l y d i d t h e e x i s t e n c e of a commonly a c c e p t e d model l i m i t t h e r e c o g n i t i o n of a n o m a l i e s , i t a l s o l i m i t e d t h e c o l l e c t i o n of d a t a t h a t would have i t s e l f been i n t e r p r e t e d as anomolous. In r e t r o s p e c t i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e water column and c u r r e n t d a t a were anomalous w i t h r e s p e c t t o the e s t u a r i n e c i r c u l a t i o n model. However, t h e r e c o g n i t i o n of a n o m a l i e s i s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y when t h e r e i s not the b e n e f i t of h i n d s i g h t ) a j u d g e m e n t — t h e r e was i n t h i s case n o t h i n g s e l f - e v i d e n t w i t h i n t h e d a t a t h a t i n d i c a t e d some o t h e r model of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n was r e q u i r e d , and what t h a t model might be. The s e a r c h f o r a l t e r n a t i v e models of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n o r i g i n a t e d o n l y when t a i l i n g s i n d u c e d t u r b i d i t y became e v i d e n t on t h e s u r f a c e at Q u a t s i n o Narrows. The a n o m a l i e s r e c o g n i z e d at Rupert I n l e t e v e n t u a l l y provoked t h i s s e a r c h , but o n l y when they had p e r s i s t e d l o n g enough t h a t the e x i s t i n g t h e o r y c o u l d no l o n g e r be m a i n t a i n e d . I n t r i g u i n g l y , t h e knowledge of f j o r d dynamics which t h i s case provoked l e d t o a number of new models of f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n p r o c e s s e s , and r e c o g n i t i o n of the p a r t i c u l a r i s t i c e x p l a n a t i o n s which had t o be d e v e l o p e d f o r i n d i v i d u a l f j o r d s . As a r e s u l t t h e I n s t i t u t e of Ocean S t u d i e s became a w o r l d l e a d e r i n t h e s e s t u d i e s ( p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n , D. S t u c c h i ) . O b v i o u s l y t h e i n t e r e s t s of v a r i o u s p a r t i e s may have i n f l u e n c e d t h e a c c e p t a n c e or r e j e c t i o n of o c e a n o g r a p h i c o b s e r v a t i o n s as anomalous. N e v e r t h e l e s s , the r e a c t i o n s of s c i e n t i s t s t o t h e a n o m a l i e s at Rupert I n l e t i s e n t i r e l y consonant w i t h Kuhn's d e s c r i p t i o n of how s c i e n t i s t s n o r m a l l y o p e r a t e (120) when f a c e d by a n o m a l i e s . T h e i r r e a c t i o n i s o f t e n t o defend the e x i s t i n g model or t h e o r y u n t i l i t becomes u n t e n a b l e or i s s u p e r c e d e d by a b e t t e r one. The c o n s e r v a t i v e n e s s t h a t t h i s engenders i s i n Kuhn's view a s t r e n g t h of s c i e n c e — t h e o r i e s are not abandoned u n t i l t h e i r h e u r i s t i c v a l u e has been e x h a u s t e d and when th e y have been p r e s s e d t o t h e edges of t h e i r u s e f u l n e s s as v e h i c l e s t o d i r e c t the i n t e r r o g a t i o n of n a t u r e . However, such c o n s e r v a t i v e n e s s s u g g e s t s t h a t both " b o l d c o n j e c t u r e " and c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s w i l l at t i m e s be d i f f i c u l t a t t i t u d e s t o m a i n t a i n . The e v e n t s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e t h e weaknesses of thB f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n model appears t o have been such a t i m e . 2. The Waldichuk and Buchanan Review. Waldichuk and Buchanan were i n s t r u c t e d t o " r e v i e w and r e p o r t the f a c t s " w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s of d i s c h a r g e , t h e changes i n d u c e d i n the environment by t a i l i n g s d i s c h a r g e , and the e n v i r o n m e n t a l s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h o s e changes. Though t h i s was t h e e x p l i c i t mandate, t h e i m p l i c i t mandate was t o r e s o l v e t h e c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of EPS and the UBC IA r e g a r d i n g t h e e x t e n t of damage bBing i n f l i c t e d on t h e i n l e t s , and the s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h a t damage. I t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o u n d e r s t a n d the i n i t i a t i o n of t h i s r e v i e w p r o c e s s e x c e p t w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t of t h i s d i s p u t e and t h e p u b l i c a t t e n t i o n which i t p r e c i p i t a t e d . An e x p l i c i t e x p r e s s i o n of t h e i r mandate might have been " a u t h o r i t a t i v e l y d e c i d e which of t h e two i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of t h e a v a i l a b l e e v i d e n c e we ought t o a c c e p t and a c t upon." The mandate t h a t Waldichuk and Buchanan r e c e i v e d s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e r e was something i n t h e " f a c t s " t h e m s e l v e s which would s p e c i f y a t r u e p i c t u r e of thB r e a l i t y of marine t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l — i t was t h e mandate of a p o s i t i v i s t or n a i v e r e a l i s t . Waldichuk and Buchanan's r e s p o n s e t o t h i s mandate was ambiguous. They d i d not r e - a n a l y z e the d a t a t h e m s e l v e s , or the m e r i t s of t h e ( 1 2 1 ) r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s used by the UBC IA and EPS r e s p e c t i v e l y , a l t h o u g h a d i s a g r e e m e n t over the f a c t s might have s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e d i v e r g e n t m e t h o d o l o g i e s used t o produce them be r e a s s e s s e d . R a t h e r t h e y i n t e r v i e w e d the p a r t i c i p a n t s and t h e r e f o r e , k n o w i n g l y or o t h e r w i s e , must have o n l y r e c e i v e d t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of t h e d a t a . What they d i d not do was t o p r o v i d e a forum where t h e s e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s c o u l d be compared and c o n t r a s t e d , and where the a s s u m p t i o n s on which they were based c o u l d be s u r f a c e d and c r i t i c a l l y examined by the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the d i s p u t e . The i n t e r v i e w s were h e l d p r i m a r i l y one-on-one (Waldichuk and Buchanan 19B0iAppendix I ) . No o p p o r t u n i t y e x i s t e d u s i n g t h i s format t o improve t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s u n d e r s t a n d i n g of each o t h e r ' s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and t h e a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g them. An a l t e r n a t e mandate might have been t o "mediate t h e s c i e n t i f i c c o n f l i c t between EPS and t h e UBC IA t o a c h i e v e consensus over the d a t a and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s on which they can a g r e e , and t h e a p p r o p r i a t e a c t i o n s which can be t a k e n t o r e s o l v e t h o s e a r e a s over which t h e y cannot a g r e e . " T h i s i s a more a p p r o p r i a t e mandate f o r r e s o l v i n g s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s over t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of o b s e r v a t i o n s and t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e . What i s c r i t i c a l i s t h a t not j u s t the d i s a g r e e m e n t s be r e s o l v e d , but t h e r e a s o n s f o r d i s a g r e e m e n t s become e v i d e n t . In d e a l i n g w i t h the r e a s o n s f o r d i s a g r e e m e n t s , an i n v e s t m e n t i s made i n the r e s o l u t i o n of f u t u r e d i s p u t e s , not j u s t the one i m m e d i a t e l y at hand. I t appears t h a t i n t h e d i s p u t e between EPS and t h e UBC IA communication between the two p a r t i e s was m i n i m a l . From t h i s i t can be s u r m i s e d t h a t t h e a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g t h e i r v a r i e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of e v e n t s at t h e I s l a n d Copper Nine were never c l e a r l y made a v a i l a b l e t o each o t h e r . Kuhn's a n a l y s i s has s u g g e s t e d t h a t communication between s c i e n t i s t s from d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n a r y backgrounds can be e x p e c t e d t o be p a r t i a l , and (.1 27) t h a t t h e a s s u m p t i o n s on which they b a s s t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of e v e n t s c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o v a r y . The a s s u m p t i o n s which a r e s c i e n t i f i c i n n a t u r e such as the q u a l i t y of e v i d e n c e or the n a t u r e of a c c e p t a b l e argument a r i s e from d i f f e r e n t m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigms. Assumptions r e g a r d i n g v a l u e s , such as t h o s e h a v i n g t o do w i t h t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h e d e s t r u c t i o n of b e n t h i c s p e c i e s , f o r i n s t a n c e , c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o have more d i v e r s e o r i g i n s , one of which might be t h e d i f f e r i n g v a l u e p o s i t i o n s common t o the d i s c i p l i n a r y community a s c i e n t i s t b e l o n g s t o . The backgrounds of t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the d i s p u t e — t h e UBC IA was p r e d o m i n a n t l y e n g i n e e r s and p h y s i c a l s c i e n t i s t s and EPS marine b i o l o g i s t s - - c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o provoke d i s p u t e s over both t h e s e s c i e n t i f i c and v a l u e p o s i t i o n s . In such s i t u a t i o n s t h e r e s o l u t i o n of d i s p u t e s must i n v o l v e c r e a t i n g what I have e a r l i e r c a l l e d " i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y " — u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f , i f not agreement about, t h e mutual a s s u m p t i o n s of the p a r t i c i p a n t s t o t h e d i s p u t e . I f t h i s i s t h e c a s e , then d i r e c t communication becomes a c r i t i c a l element of d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n . G iven the d i f f i c u l t i e s a t t e n d i n g such c o m m u n i c a t i o n , the p r e s e n c e of a m e d i a t o r who i d e n t i f i e s m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g s and f a c i l i t a t e s communication c o u l d be n e c e s s a r y . Waldichuk and Buchanan might have p l a y e d such a r o l e but d i d n o t . The p o s i t i v i s t mandate t h e y were g i v e n might have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s f a i l u r e . I e a r l i e r s u g g e s t e d t h a t c r i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y c o u l d have t h r e e p o s s i b l e g o a l s , t h e f i r s t two of which were t h e e v a l u a t i o n of t h e s c i e n t i s t or of the s c i e n c e . Though t h e e x p l i c i t mandate of t h e Waldichuk and Buchanan r e v i e w was t o judge t h e s c i e n c e , t h e i r i m p l i c i t mandate c o u l d o n l y be i n t e r p r e t e d as a judgement of the s c i e n t i s t s . I have s u g g e s t e d t h a t the a p p r o p r i a t e mandate f o r t h i s e x e r c i s e i n c r i t i c a l r a t i o n a l i t y was n e i t h e r of t h e s e . I t was i n s t e a d t h e t h i r d o p t i o n , t o e v a l u a t e and make j o i n t l y a v a i l a b l e t h e < 1 2 3 ) a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n e s ' t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s of a p a r t i c u l a r t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y p r oblem, which s h o u l d have been t h e o b j e c t i v e of t h e i r r e v i e w . I t i s time t o b r i n g t h i s d i s c u s s i o n of t h e p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e t o a c l o s e . I t began by p o s i n g t h e q u e s t i o n "What can be e x p e c t e d from s c i e n c e i n t h e form of a c o n t r i b u t i o n of o b j e c t i v e knowledge, and how can t h i s c o n t r i b u t i o n b e s t be a c h i e v e d i n t h e impact assessment and management p r o c e s s ? " . In answer t o t h e f i r s t p a r t of t h i s q u e s t i o n , no c l e a r bounds on o b j e c t i v i t y t h a t can be p o s i t i v e l y s t a t e d have emerged from t h i s a n a l y s i s . O b j e c t i v i t y i s not a t h i n g t o have, but a t h i n g t o a s p i r e t o . What t h i s l i t e r a t u r e has done i s t o i n d i c a t e what s c i e n c e cannot be e x p e c t e d t o do. I t cannot be e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e a " d i r e c t l i n e " t o a t r u t h which w i l l be unambiguous and u n c o n t e s t e d . I f o b j e c t i v i t y can o n l y be an i d e a l , then s c i e n t i s t s must s e t t l e f o r some o t h e r more immediate s t a n d a r d . Kuhn has p r o v i d e d an a n a l y s i s of s c i e n c e which s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h i s o b j e c t i v e i s i n t e r - s u b j e c t i v i t y . I n t e r - s u b j e c t i v i t y i s not merely s h a r e d u n d e r s t a n d i n g s — i t i s i n s t e a d a commitment t o u n d e r s t a n d the knowledge of o t h e r s as they t h e m s e l v e s p e r c e i v e i t . Only then can i t be e v a l u a t e d . A c o n s c i o u s n e s s of t h e e x t e n t t o which s c i e n t i f i c knowledge i s embedded e x p e r i e n t i a l l y , t h e o r e t i c a l l y , and s o c i a l l y i s c e n t r a l t o t h e o p e r a t i o n of s e l f - r e f l e c t i v e and c r i t i c a l s c i e n c e , both g e n e r a l l y and i n impact assessment and management. The p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e i n i t i a t e s t h i s c o n s c i o u s n e s s ! the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e ought t o e x p l i c a t e i t . To t h i s we t u r n . (124) CHAPTER & EXPECTATIONS OF OBJECTIVITY: SOCIOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS T h i s c h a p t e r a d d r e s s e s a s e t of i s s u e s which a r e r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t from the p h i l o s o p h i c a l e v a l u a t i o n of t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r an e n t i r e l y o b j e c t i v e s c i e n c e which we c o n s i d e r e d above. I f the p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e has i n d i c a t e d t h a t l i m i t s t o the o b j e c t i v i t y of s c i e n t i f i c f a c t s a r e i n h e r e n t t o t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n , then t h e s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e might r e a s o n a b l y attempt t o d i s c o v e r where t h o s e l i m i t s l i e . T h i s attempt s h o u l d p r o c e e d t h r o u g h c l o s e o b s e r v a t i o n of t h e m i c r o - and m a c r o - l e v e l s of t h e p r o d u c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c k n o w l e d g e — t h a t i s , by s t u d y i n g both the a c t i o n s and i n t e r a c t i o n s of s c i e n t i s t s 'on t h e l a b f l o o r ' , and by s t u d y i n g t h e s o c i a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n t e x t i n which s c i e n c e o p e r a t e s ( g r a n t i n g p r o c e d u r e s , peer r e v i e w , and so o n ) . Two c u r r e n t s t h a t a r e of r e a l i n t e r e s t t o t h e s t u d y of s c i e n c e i n impact assessment and management run th r o u g h t h i s l i t e r a t u r e : how does new s c i e n t i f i c knowledge which comes under t h e f o r m a l or i n f o r m a l r e v i e w of the s c i e n t i f i c community o b t a i n c r e d i b i l i t y from s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c i o n e r s ? ; and what impact do t h e v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s of s o c i e t y , or groups w i t h i n s o c i e t y , or s c i e n t i s t s t h e m s e l v e s , have on the t y p e of knowledge c r e a t e d and on i t s u s e s ? Both of t h e s e q u e s t i o n s a r e c e n t r a l t o u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s , and the n a t u r e of t h e i r r e s o l u t i o n . The answers t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s a r e n e c e s s a r i l y s c h e m a t i c , f o r the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e r e m a i n s , t o d a t e at l e a s t , an i n f a n t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y f o r t h o s e i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e p r a g m a t i c a p p l i c a t i o n of s c i e n c e t o d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s , c u r r e n t work i n the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e i s o v e r w h e l m i n g l y n a r c i s s i s t i c ( c f the pa p e r s i n K n o r r - C e t i n a and Mulkay, e d s . , 1983; and t h e d e b a t e s i n S o c i a l S t u d i e s of S c i e n c e , 1 9 8 2 : 1 2 ( 2 ) ) . In f o c u s i n g on t h e s o c i a l , and t h e r e b y human, a s p e c t s of t h e p r o d u c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge, s o c i o l o g i s t s have o c c a s i o n a l l y l o s t s i g h t of what i s d i s t i n c t i v e l y s c i e n t i f i c about s c i e n c e . Indeed C o l l i n s <1982r304) e x p r e s s l y adopts v e r s i o n s of judgemental r e l a t i v i s m as a r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g y , i f not as an e p i s t e m o l o g y . There a r e d i s t i n c t i v e l y human and d i s t i n c t i v e l y s c i e n t i f i c i n f l u e n c e s on knowledge p r o d u c t i o n , and a grey a r e a which s t r e t c h e s between them. To quote Wool ga r : "Perhaps i t i s now ti m e t o t r y and make s c i e n c e t a l k t o s o c i o l o g y r a t h e r than t h e o t h e r way around" (1983:262). In a sense my t h e s i s a s k s them t o t a l k t o each o t h e r . For t h o s e i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e improved a p p l i c a t i o n of s c i e n c e i n a p p l i e d s i t u a t i o n s , both the s o c i a l c o n t e x t which molds s c i e n c e and t h o s e f e a t u r e s which make i t u n i q u e l y s c i e n t i f i c must be the o b j e c t of a n a l y s i s . A. I n t e r e s t s and V a l u e s . F i r s t we w i l l t a k e up t h e r o l e t h a t v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s p l a y i n i n f l u e n c i n g knowledge p r o d u c t i o n . V a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s impinge on t h e p r o d u c t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge at a number of l e v e l s . The f i r s t of t h e s e i s t h e v a l u e p o s i t i o n which p r e d i c a t e s an o f t e n t a c i t w o r l d - v i e w t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between s c i e n c e and ' a l l t h e r e s t ' of human knowledge f u r t h e r s human g o a l s . "The v a l u e c h o i c e t h a t i s i n c o r p o r a t e d and presupposed w i t h i n  the v e r y s t r u c t u r e of s c i e n t i f i c i n q u i r y i t s e l f i s t h a t t h i s r e l a t i o n between human r e a s o n and t h e w o r l d i s c o n d u c i v e t o t h e achievement of a s a t i s f y i n g r e l a t i o n between c o n s c i o u s n e s s and e x i s t e n c e " ( S a l t e r et_ a l _ 1983:11). Our s o c i a l commitment t o s c i e n t i f i c i n q u i r y " i s and remains a cosmic wager" ( i b i d : 11). There a r e no g u a r a n t e e s t h a t t h e wager has f a l l e n our way, f o r who can a s s e s s p a t h s not chosen; b u t , t h e r e i s no doubt of our commitment t o an a c t i v e , i n s t r u m e n t a l , and e f f e c t i v e s c i e n c e . T h i s commitment i s the v e r y b a s i s of a p p l y i n g s c i e n c e t o impact assessment and management. The ( 1 2 6 ) i m p o r t a n c e of t h i s n o t i o n i s not so much what i t s a y s about t h e conduct of s c i e n c e , but r a t h e r i t s f o c u s on s c i e n c e as an a c t i o n - o r i e n t e d a c t i v i t y — by i t s e l f i t doesn't i n d i c a t e how s c i e n c e i n f l u e n c e s or i s i n f l u e n c e d by s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , but i t does i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s e x i s t , and t h e r e b y f o c u s e s our a t t e n t i o n at t h e s p e c i f i c p o i n t s where such i n f l u e n c e might o c c u r . V a l u e s a l s o a f f e c t the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t s . In some i n s t a n c e s t h i s i n f l u e n c e i s r e l a t i v e l y e x p l i c i t . G o y e t t e and N e l s o n ' s 1977 c r i t i q u e of the assessment and p a r t i c u l a r l y of the e v a l u a t i o n of i m p a c t s at R upert I n l e t can h a r d l y be u n d e r s t o o d e x c e p t w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e v a l u e p o s i t i o n they a d o p t i the " d i v e r s i t y and abundance" of marine s p e c i e s i s of worth i n and of i t s e l f . I t i s t h e e x p l i c i t n e s s of t h i s v a l u e p o s i t i o n which a l l o w s Evans and P e l l e t i e r t o d i s m i s s G o y e t t e and N e l s o n ' s work as mere " i n t e r p r e t a t i o n " . In f a c t such e x p l i c i t i n s t a n c e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y i n n o c u o u s ; the v a l u e p o s i t i o n i s at l e a s t a v a i l a b l e f o r c r i t i c a l i n s p e c t i o n . L e s s h a r m l e s s a r e t h o s e s i t u a t i o n s where v a l u e p o s i t i o n s a r e i m p l i c i t , and yet a r e c e n t r a l i n f l u e n c e s on t h e c o n c l u s i o n s drawn from t h e o r y and o b s e r v a t i o n . The r o l e of i n t e r e s t s has been h i g h l i g h t e d by t h e E d i n b u r g h s c h o o l ( B l o o r 1976; Barnes 1977; Hesse 1980s29-60; f o r a r e v i e w see S h a p i n 1982). I n t e r e s t s may p r e s e n t t h e m s e l v e s i n a number of ways. F i r s t , t h e y d i r e c t r e s e a r c h . They may be i n s t r u m e n t a l l y ( i e . , d i r e c t l y and i n t e n t i o n a l l y ) i n f l u e n t i a l , as where a proponent funds impact assessment and management r e s e a r c h e x p e c t e d t o s u p p o r t i t s case f o r development (or chooses from among the a v a i l a b l e r e p o r t s ones most s u p p o r t i v e of t h e i r i n t e r e s t s ) . The d i r e c t i o n of t h e m o n i t o r i n g program at I s l a n d Copper towards t h e d o c u m e n t a t i o n of the n o n - t o x i c i t y of t h e t a i l i n g s might w e l l be such a case ( 1 2 7 ) ( t h e 1982 I s l a n d Copper Mine Annual Report d e v o t e s 32 pages t o t o x i c m e t a l s c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n b i o t a ; a l l o t h e r b i o l o g i c a l i m p a c t s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n 21 p a g e s ) . Other e f f e c t s a r e much l e s s w e l l u n d e r s t o o d - - t h e e f f e c t s on j u v e n i l e s a l m o n i d s of t u r b i d i t y and s e d i m e n t a t i o n i n s u b t i d a l and i n t e r t i d a l a r e a s i s one e x a m p l e — and t h e r i s k s of s t u d y i n g t h e s e e f f e c t s a r e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y g r e a t e r t o t h e company. For a m i n i n g company, th e i n s t r u m e n t a l i n t e r e s t i n a v o i d i n g p o s s i b l y t h r e a t e n i n g r e s e a r c h i s o b v i o u s . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i n t e r e s t s may p r e s e n t t h e m s e l v e s s y s t e m i c a l l y - - t h a t i s , t hey may be i n h e r e n t t o the o r g a n i z a t i o n of s o c i e t y . The f i l e s of DFF and PCB i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e c o n f r o n t a t i o n between e n v i r o n m e n t a l managers and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s t s which was s p a r k e d by t h e Utah development was at t h i s time u n i q u e . E n v i r o n m e n t a l ism was a s o c i a l movement, not an i n d i v i d u a l ' s cause. The i n t e r e s t s which i t r e p r e s e n t e d o r i g i n a t e d i n c h a n g i n g s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s , not i n the o v e r t o b j e c t i v e s of an i n d i v i d u a l or s o c i a l group. S c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s and much of the e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e s e a r c h g e n e r a t e d by t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l movement have i n t h i s sense i n p a r t a s y s t e m i c cause. On a b roader s c a l e , Kuhn (19S9) d i s c u s s e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the emergence of steam power as a s o c i a l i n t e r e s t and t h e development of thermodynamic t h e o r y . Where i n t e r e s t s are e x p r e s s e d i n s t r u m e n t a l l y , d e c i s i o n s are made i n an a t tempt t o c o n t r o l t h e p r o c e s s of knowledge p r o d u c t i o n , whereas where i n t e r e s t s a r e e x p r e s s e d s y s t e m i c a l l y , t h e d e c i s i o n s a r e i n a sense t h e u n f o r s e e n consequences of o t h e r s o c i a l e v e n t s — s o c i a l change a c t s at a d i s t a n c e t o i n f l u e n c e the d i r e c t i o n s s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h t a k e s . On t h i s more m a c r o - s c a l e , s p e c u l a t i o n s on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e o r i g i n of Darwin's t h e o r y of n a t u r a l s e l e c t i o n and t h e p r e v a i l i n g Z e i t g e i s t of i n d u s t r i a l ( 1 2 8 ) E n g l i s h c a p i t a l i s m (Shapin 1982) or the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e development of a c a u s a l quantum t h e o r y and the a i m l e s s n e s s of t h e Weimar R e p u b l i c i n which i t was g e n e r a t e d (Forman 1971) t y p i f y t h i s s o r t of e x p l a n a t i o n of t h e s y s t e m i c o p e r a t i o n of i n t e r e s t s . Barnes (1977) has noted t h e c a u s a l conundrums a s s o c i a t e d w i t h such e x p l a n a t i o n s . The a c t of c o n d u c t i n g s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h a l s o c o n d i t i o n s t h e d i r e c t i o n r e s e a r c h p u r s u e s . What s c i e n t i s t s s t u d y i s d e t e r m i n e d i n p a r t by t h e i r p r e v i o u s s u c c e s s e s , both as i n d i v i d u a l s and as a community. In t h i s c a B e t h e ' i n t e r e s t ' i s a c h i e v e m e n t , and achievement i s b e s t g u a r a n t e e d t h r o u g h development of d e m o n s t r a b l y f r u i t f u l pathways. In t h i s r e s p e c t s c i e n c e can be seen more as a quest f o r s u c c e s s than f o r t r u t h ( K n o r r - C e t i n a 1981:59 g i v e s a p r o v o c a t i v e example). T h i s r e l a t e s d i r e c t l y t o Kuhn's normal s c i e n c e — t h e e x i s t e n c e of a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigm p r o v i d e s t h e p u z z l e s upon which normal s c i e n c e t h r i v e s and t h e r e f o r e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the absence of a n o m a l i e s , d i r e c t s t h e c o u r s e of r e s e a r c h . And of c o u r s e e a r l i e r s u c c e s s f u l s o l u t i o n s both " p o i n t t o new problems and p r e d i s p o s e t h e i r s o l u t i o n s " ( K n o r r - C e t i n a 1981:6). P u b l i c a t i o n remains the c e n t r a l v i s i b l e m o t i v a t o r of s c i e n t i s t s — t o succeed one must p u b l i s h , and t o p u b l i s h one must choose r e a d i l y r e s e a r c h a b l e p r o b l e m s — p r o b l e m s which have a h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y of l e a d i n g t o j o u r n a l p u b l i c a t i o n . Many of t h e u n r e s o l v e d s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s at Utah do not f a l l i n t o t h i s c a t e g o r y , and the f a i l u r e t o t a k e them up w i t h i n t h e u n i v e r s i t y or government r e s e a r c h system may w e l l r e f l e c t t h i s . D i a g e n e s i s , f o r i n s t a n c e , i s a p r o c e s s which e x t e n d s beyond t h e r e s e a r c h l i f e t i m e s of most s c i e n t i s t — i t s e f f e c t s may w e l l t a k e 50 y e a r s t o d e v e l o p ( J . Thompson, p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n ) . There i s l i t t l e i n c e n t i v e under our c u r r e n t methods of ( 1 2 9 ) s e t t i n g r e s e a r c h g o a l s t o t a r g e t such a l o n g - t e r m p r o b l e m , and no i n c e n t i v e f o r an i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t t o do so. F i n a l l y , s c i e n c e i s o r g a n i z e d s o c i a l l y , t h r o u g h c o n t r o l over peer r e v i e w of f u n d i n g and p u b l i c a t i o n , t o d i r e c t r e s e a r c h i n ways c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e i n t e r e s t s of s c i e n c e g e n e r a l l y . I t i s n o t a b l e t h a t g r a n t i n g p r o c e d u r e s f a v o u r r e s e a r c h which i s d e f i n e d w i t h i n narrow t h e o r e t i c a l b o u n d a r i e s . T r a n s - d i s c i p l i n a r y problems o f t e n exceed t h e s e b o u n d a r i e s , and t h e r e f o r e are d i f f i c u l t t o f u n d . The f a i l u r e of any r e s e a r c h e r s t o t a k e up Waldichuk and Buchanan's recommenations might i n p a r t be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h i s cause. Focus on t h e s e i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s of s c i e n c e forms t h e h e a r t of t h e M e r t o n i a n a n a l y s i s , and have r e c e n t l y r e c e i v e d l e s s emphasis than they d e s e r v e ( B i e r y n 1982). The o p e r a t i o n of i n t e r e s t s upon s c i e n c e can t h e r e f o r e be u n d e r s t o o d i n terms of a m a t r i x of i n f l u e n c e s — i n f l u e n c e s which on one v e c t o r v a r y from i n s t r u m e n t a l t o s y s t e m i c , and on the o t h e r from t h o s e i n t e r n a l t o s c i e n c e , t o t h o s e e x t e r n a l t o s c i e n c e . F i g u r e 5.1 e x e m p l i f i e s t h i s p o i n t , and p r o v i d e s examples of i n f l u e n c e s which f a l l w i t h i n each c a t e g o r y . Though such a d i s c r i m i n a t i o n between t h a t which i s i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l t o s c i e n c e has some v a l u e , i t ought not be s t r e t c h e d too f a r . P a r t i c u l a r l y i n the t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y t h i s boundary has become i n c r e a s i n g l y l e s s o b v i o u s as s c i e n c e has p r o g r e s s i v e l y extended i n t o p r e v i o u s l y d i s t i n c t a r e a s of human endeavor ( K n o r r - C e t i n a 1981:14-16). The i n f l u e n c e of s o c i e t y cannot be pushed too f a r , f o r s c i e n c e a l s o p r o f o u n d l y a f f e c t s s o c i a l l i f e . L a t o u r ( 1 9 8 3 ) , i n h i s b r i l l i a n t a n a l y s i s of the impact of P a s t e u r on F r e n c h s o c i e t y , has s u g g e s t e d t h a t r a t h e r than (130) Table 6.1. The Role of I n t e r e s t s i n S e t t i n g Research P r i o r i t i e s . RELATIONSHIP TO SCIENCE_ TYPE OF INTEREST INSTRUMENTAL SYSTEMIC INTERESTS INTERNAL TO SCIENCE — t h e i n t e r e s t s o f the i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t i n .. achievement through . primary p u b l i c a t i o n focuses r e s e a r c h on problems wi t h a high p r o b a b i l i t y of success. — p e e r review of p r o p o s a l s focuses r e s e a r c h w i t h i n narrow d i s c i p l i n a r y boundaries. INTERESTS EXTERNAL TO SCIENCE — c o r p o r a t e i n t e r e s t s focus r e s e a r c h on safe i s s u e s . — t h e environmental movement a l t e r e d r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s towards environmental r e s e a r c h . ( 1 3 1 ) s o c i a l and i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r e s t s d e t e r m i n i n g t h e c o u r s e of s c i e n c e , or the r e l a t i o n s h i p between s c i e n c e and human i n t e r e s t s b e i n g r e l a t i v e l y p a s s i v e , s c i e n c e and s c i e n t i s t s a r e on o c c a s i o n a b l e t o c r e a t e s o c i a l i n t e r e s t s which never e x i s t e d b e f o r e . In t h i s s e n s e , s c i e n c e c r e a t e s r e v o l u t i o n a r y p e r i o d s i n s o c i a l l i f e . P a s t e u r c l e a r l y d i d t h a t w i t h a n t h r a x and o t h e r b a c t e r i a -he c r e a t e d m i c r o b i o l o g y as a f o r c e which had t o be contended w i t h by a l l Frenchmen. And he d i d t h i s not o n l y by h i s l a b o r a t o r y u n d e r s t a n d i n g of b a c t e r i a , but by e x t e n d i n g h i s l a b o r a t o r y t o i n c l u d e a l l of French s o c i e t y , t h a t i s by c r e a t i n g the c o n d i t i o n s where t h e s c i e n c e of m i c r o b i o l o g y he c r e a t e d c o u l d be extended i n t o F r e n c h homes, f a r m s , and f a c t o r i e s . By e x t e n d i n g " t o e v e r y s e t t i n g some of t h e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t make p o s s i b l e the r e p r o d u c t i o n of f a v o r a b l e l a b o r a t o r y p r a c t i c e s " ( L a t o u r 1983s166) Fre n c h s o c i e t y was t r a n s f o r m e d . (The m i c r o c h i p r e v o l u t i o n has e lements of a r e v o l u t i o n a r y c r e a t i o n of i n t e r e s t s about i t a l s o . ) A g a i n , where s c i e n c e c r e a t e s i n t e r e s t s , t h e form of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge might be s o c i a l l y d e t e r m i n e d , but not i t s s p e c i f i c c o n t e n t . The v e r y c a p a c i t y of s c i e n c e t o be, i n L a t o u r ' s p h rase " p o l i t i c s pursued by o t h e r means" ( 1 9 8 3 s l 6 8 ) , depends not o n l y on t h e i n t e r e s t s i t p u r s u e s , c r e a t e s , i n f l u e n c e s , or i s i n f l u e n c e d by, but more i m p o r t a n t l y by t h e way i t c o n s t r u c t s knowledge. Though r e s e a r c h may be g u i d e d by i n t e r e s t s towards t a c k l i n g some problems and not o t h e r s , and may t h u s d e t e r m i n e the form of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge, t h i s i s not t h e same as s u g g e s t i n g t h a t i n t e r e s t s a l s o c o n s t i t u t e an element of t h e c o n t e n t of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge-- i e . , t h a t s c i e n c e i s merely the m y t h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s of the p e o p l e who u l t i m a t e l y c o n t r o l i t s p r o d u c t i o n . Though t h i s might on o c c a s i o n be t h e case ( L y s e n k o ' s g e n e t i c s i s t h e a r c h e t y p a l e x a m p l e ) , such p o s i t i o n s cannot be m a i n t a i n e d f o r l o n g . The e f f e c t of i n t e r e s t s on s c i e n c e i s a matter f o r o b s e r v a t i o n , not s p e c u l a t i o n . R e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e of t h i s work has been done t o d a t e . The o p e r a t i o n oi v a l u e s and i n t e r e s t s i n i n f l u e n c i n g t he t r a j e c t o r y of s c i e n c e doesn't n e c e s s a r i l y compromise t h e knowledge produced. That p o w e r f u l p u b l i c and p r i v a t e " i n t e r e s t s " o p e r a t e d on the Nanhatten p r o j e c t ' s p r o d u c t i o n of t h e atomic bomb made i t no l e s s w o r k a b l e . We a r e r e t u r n e d t o t h a t i n s i s t e n t q u e s t i o n , why does s c i e n c e work? To quote Woolgar once a g a i n i "What grounds p r o v i d e t h e war r a n t f o r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e o b j e c t s of stud y and s t a t e m e n t s about t h o s e o b j e c t s ? " (1983o 240). B. The C o n s t r u c t i o n of R e p l i c a b i l i t y . The ' c o n s t r u c t i v i s t s c h o o l ' of t h e s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e a d d r e s s e s i t s e l f t o t he m i c r o - l e v e l p r o d u c t i o n of k n o w l e d g e — t o what happens on t h e l a b o r a t o r y f l o o r — and i n so d o i n g a t t e m p t s t o e s t a b l i s h t he c o n d i t i o n s under which c r e d i b l e s c i e n t i f i c knowledge i s c o n s t r u c t e d . T h i s approach emphasizes two p o i n t s s t h e c o n d i t i o n s under which r e s u l t s become r e p l i c a b l e and a s s o c i a t e d w i t h 'cogent t h e o r y ' ( C o l l i n s 1983J 92)J and the n e g o t i a t i o n of c r e d i b i l i t y ( d e a l t w i t h i n t h e next s e c t i o n ) . I t i s t h e l a b o r a t o r y which c r e a t e s t h e c o n d i t i o n s under which r e p l i c a t i o n can o c c u r ; as K n o r r - C e t i n a has commented the l a b o r a t o r y can be c h a r a c t e r i z e d as t h e p l a c e where " ' n a t u r e ' i s as much as p o s s i b l e e x c l u d e d " <198113-41 19831 119>. The v e r y v a r i a b i l i t y of n a t u r e i s t h e g r e a t e s t t h r e a t t o r e p l i c a t i o n . For L a t o u r " s c i e n t i f i c f a c t s a r e l i k e t r a i n s , t h e y do not work o f f t h e r a i l s " ( 1 9 8 3 i 1 5 5 ) . I t i s o n l y w i t h i n t he l a b o r a t o r y t h a t t he " r a i l s " can be g u a r a n t e e d — and i f s c i e n c e i s  t o be made r e l e v a n t beyond t h e w a l l s of t h e l a b o r a t o r y , t h e w a l l s must be  extended (which i s what P a s t e u r s u c c e s s f u l l y a c c o m p l i s h e d ) . The c o n d i t i o n s which produced t h e knowledge i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e must be r e c r e a t e d f o r t h a t knowledge t o have a s o c i a l i m p a c t . " S c i e n t i s t s ' p r e d i c t i o n s or p r e v i s i o n s are always p o s t - d i c t i o n s or r e p e t i t i o n s . The c o n f i r m a t i o n of t h i s o b v i o u s phenomenon i s shown i n s c i e n t i f i c c o n t r o v e r s i e s when s c i e n t i s t s a r e f o r c e d t o l e a v e the s o l i d ground of t h e i r l a b o r a t o r i e s " ( L a t o u r 1 9 8 3 : 1 6 6 ) . Those f a m i l i a r w i t h s c i e n t i s t s o p e r a t i n g beyond t h e a c c e p t e d bounds of t h e i r d i s c i p l i n e s (as f r e q u e n t l y o c c u r s i n impact assessment and management s i t u a t i o n s ) w i l l i m m e d i a t e l y r e c o g n i z e t h e t r u t h of t h i s comment. I t i s i n the l a b where n a t u r e can be most r e a d i l y c o n t r o l l e d , and s i t u a t i o n s r e c o n s t r u c t e d , t h e r e f o r e i t i s here t h a t s c i e n c e produces s o c i a l l y c r e d i b l e knowledge most r e a d i l y . As d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 4, a p p l i e d s n v i r o m e n t a l s c i e n t i s t s can seldom produce c o n t r o l l e d e x p e r i m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n s , and must i n s t e a d r e l y on c o r r e l a t i o n s , as i n e p i d e m i o l o g y . F r e q u e n t l y the e x p e r i m e n t s t h a t a r e p o s s i b l e a r e "weak" ones, which have o n l y l i m i t e d r e p l i c a b i 1 i t y . Under such c i r c u m s t a n c e s , t h e l i k e l i h o o d of d e b a t e s over the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of e v i d e n c e emerging i s i n c r e a s e d . Though r e p l i c a t i o n has been t r e a t e d b r i e f l y , t h a t i s not because i t l a c k s i m p o r t a n c e . The q u a l i t y which i m p a r t s t o s c i e n c e i t s cogency and the sense t h a t i t i s i n some r e s p e c t e x t e r n a l t o t h e o b s e r v e r , t h a t i t e x i s t s "out t h e r e " , i s t h i s c a p a c i t y t o produce r e p l i c a b l e r e s u l t s . When s c i e n c e i s u n d e r t a k e n under the c o n d i t i o n s which a l l o w r e p l i c a t i o n ( c o n t r o l l e d e x p e r i m e n t , a d e q u a t e l y d e f i n i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , e t c . ) , i t c r e a t e s the p h y s i c a l w o r l d as a f o i l f o r the t h e o r i e s g e n e r a t e d by human i n t e l l i g e n c e , a f o i l which many s c i e n t i s t s can i n t e r a c t w i t h t o compare t h e i r mutual u n d e r s t a n d i n g s . R e p l i c a b i l i t y c r e a t e s the c o n d i t i o n s f o r communication both between s c i e n t i s t s and between s c i e n c e and t h e n a t u r a l w o r l d , and as such i s the essence of whatever i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y s c i e n c e can c r e a t e . These communications may be i m p e r f e c t , y e t t h e i r i m p e r f e c t i o n s a r e bounded by the ( 1 3 4 ) f o i l of r e p l i c a b i l i t y . I f t h e r e has been a s c i e n t i f i c f a i l u r e i n impact assessment and management s c i e n c e , i t has been the f a i l u r e t o c a p i t a l i z e on such o p p o r t u n i t i e s as might have e x i s t e d t o c r e a t e t h r o u g h r e p l i c a t i o n t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of e s t a b l i s h i n g a d i a l o g u e w i t h n a t u r e . However, we must r e c o g n i z e as w e l l the l i m i t s of s c i e n c e under c o n d i t i o n s where r e p l i c a b i l i t y cannot be r i g o r o u s l y e s t a b l i s h e d — c o n d i t i o n s which a r e common t o impact assessment and management problems. C. The N e g o t i a t i o n of C r e d i b i l i t y . The o t h e r u s e f u l f o c u s of t h e s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge has been on t h e way i n which t h e c r e d i b i l i t y of knowledge i s n e g o t i a t e d . " N e g o t i a t i o n " i s used i n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i n a g e n e r a l s e n s e , i n t h a t as t h e r e a r e no a u t h o r i t a t i v e r u l e s on how knowledge i s t o be produced and made c r e d i b l e , i t must be t o some e x t e n t t h e r e s u l t of m u t u a l l y a r r i v e d at agreement. ( T h i s d e f i n i t i o n i s i n a d e q u a t e , f o r a v e r y g r e a t range of a c t i v i t i e s f a l l under i t , though f o r t h e p urposes of t h i s t h e s i s I s h a l l c o n t i n u e t o use i t as i t i s used i n t h e s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e . ) O b s e r v a t i o n of the way newly produced s c i e n t i f i c knowledge i s e v a l u a t e d by s c i e n t i s t s i n d i c a t e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e of n e g o t i a t i o n i n d e t e r m i n i n g what w i l l i n d e e d count as a c c e p t a b l e s c i e n c e and a c c e p t a b l e knowledge. N e g o t i a t i o n i s made both p o s s i b l e and n e c e s s a r y because of t h e u n a v o i d a b l e i n d e t e r m i n a c i e s t h a t accompany c h o i c e s between t h e o r i e s ( r e v i s i t i n g Kuhn) and t h a t a l s o o p e r a t e i n t h e more mundane d e c i s i o n s t h a t accompany s c i e n c e ( c h o i c e s between s a m p l i n g t e c h n i q u e s , or i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n , or t h e l i k e ) . K n o r r - C e t i n a (198115> p r o v i d e s an example of t h i s " d e c i s i o n - l a d e n e s s " i n her e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e grounds a s c i e n t i s t used f o r c h o i c e of a p a r t i c u l a r d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c from among a range of a l t e r n a t i v e s , each of which had d i f f e r e n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t he u l t i m a t e form of the knowledge produced. Without t h e s e ( 1 3 5 ) indBterminacies, p o s i t i v i s m would be t h e a p p r o p r i a t e p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e and t h e r e would be o n l y one p o s s i b l e r i g h t answer. I f , as the t h e s i s t h a t t h e o r i e s are u n d e r d e t e r m i n e d by the e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s , more than one a ccount of r e a l i t y i s always p o s s i b l e , how might v a r i o u s t h e o r i e s be chosen between? There a r e e s s e n t i a l l y t h r e e c h o i c e s t a c c o u n t s may be g i v e n c r e d i b i l i t y by r e f e r e n c e t o a u t h o r i t y ; or thr o u g h some form of n e g o t i a t i o n ; or a l t e r n a t i v e l y no c h o i c e might be made at a l l — a p l e t h o r a of t h e o r i e s a r e r e t a i n e d . R e f e r e n c e t o a u t h o r i t y i s not t y p i c a l l y c o n s i d e r e d t o be c r e d i b l e s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e , though i t u n d o u b t a b l y o c c u r s . Given t h a t i n impact assessment and management d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s must u s u a l l y o p e r a t e as i f t h e i r knowledge were p e r f e c t l y r a t h e r than r e l a t i v e l y c r e d i b l e (see Wynne 1984 f o r a t h o u g h f u l but meandering d i s c u s s i o n of t h i s p o i n t ) , the t h i r d o p t i o n of r e t a i n i n g a p l e t h o r a of t h e o r i e s i s a l s o l i k e l y t o be d i s c a r d e d (though I b e l i e v e i t s h o u l d not always b e ) . Which l e a v e s n e g o t i a t i o n . In t h e i r s t u d y of the way i n which s c i e n t i f i c c r e d i b i l i t y i s n e g o t i a t e d , t h e s o c i o l o g i s t s of s c i e n c e have merely touched the s u r f a c e (cjf_ t h e index i n K n o r r - C e t i n a and N u l k a y , eds. 1983). In g e n e r a l t h e i r emphasis has been on the d i s c o u r s e between s c i e n t i s t s , e i t h e r v e r b a l l y d u r i n g the p r o c e s s of o b s e r v a t i o n and t h e o r y g e n e r a t i o n , or th r o u g h t h e s u c c e s s i v e c i t a t i o n of an o r i g i n a l work. The second i s more p e r t i n e n t t o our d i s c u s s i o n . As an a r t i c l e i s r e p e a t e d l y c i t e d t h e c o n d i t i o n a l s which were o r i g i n a l l y a t t a c h e d t o i t a r e p r o g r e s s i v e l y dropped, and i t s message i s changed from a c a u t i o u s and q u a l i f i e d one t o a stat e m e n t of f a c t ( L a t o u r and Woolgar 1979). A s i d e from t h i s e v o l u t i o n of c l a i m s t o knowledge i n a body of s c i e n t i f i c l i t e r a t u r e , t h e r e a r e o t h e r r e s p e c t s i n which knowledge may be n e g o t i a t e d . I t may oc c u r on the l a b f l o o r (or the deck of a s a m p l i n g s h i p ) , as shar e d o b s e r v e d e x p e r i e n c e of a group of s c i e n t i s t s becomes c o m p r e h e n s i b l e . Or i t (136) may o c c u r where t h e o r y c h o i c e s a r e b e i n g made. Here a r g u m e n t a t i v e s k i l l s , p r e s t i g e , p o l i t i c a l s u p p o r t , , or a c c e s s t o m a t e r i a l r e s o u r c e s such as p u b l i c a t i o n s , a d v e r t i s e m e n t s , and r e s e a r c h f u n d s may i n f l u e n c e which knowledge becomes c r e d i b l e (Chubin and R e s t i v o 1983). The s o c i o l o g i s t s of s c i e n c e have not a d d r e s s e d t h e m s e l v e s t o methods of i m p r o v i n g t h e s e a r e a s of the n e g o t i a t i o n of c r e d i b i l i t y , but have r a t h e r f o c u s s e d on documenting t h e i r e x i s t e n c e . In a p r e l i m i n a r y way, Popper has approached t h i s t h r o u g h h i s n o t i o n of c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s , y e t more s p e c i f i c recommendations might be g i v e n . The n e g o t i a t i o n of t h e c r e d i b i l i t y of knowledge i s a c e n t r a l element of s c i e n t i f i c a c t i v i t y . We w i l l not u n d e r s t a n d t h e s o c i a l bases of s c i e n c e nor l e g i t i m a t e our e x p e c t a t i o n s of i t w i t h o u t r e c o g n i z i n g t h i s p o i n t . However, t h i s i s a mediated n e g o t i a t i o n , and the m e d i a t o r i s t h e c o n d i t i o n which s c i e n t i s t s impose upon t h e m s e l v e s i n t h e form of an e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r r o g a t i o n of n a t u r e . The f i l e s and p u b l i c a t i o n s d e a l i n g w i t h Utah do n o t , and c o u l d not be ex p e c t e d t o , p r o v i d e much e v i d e n c e of t h i s n e g o t i a t i o n . L e t t e r s or memos i n f i l e s , or r e p o r t s or j o u r n a l a r t i c l e s , a r e the r e s u l t of t h i s p r o c e s s of n e g o t i a t i n g c r e d i b i l i t y . N e g o t i a t i o n of c r e d i b i l i t y c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o oc c u r p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e government a g e n c i e s r e v i e w of t h e company's m o n i t o r i n g r e s u l t s . E f f e c t i v e a n a l y s i s of t h i s a s p e c t of s c i e n t i s t ' s r o l e s i n t h e Utah case would r e q u i r e e i t h e r a c c e s s t o s u c c e s s i v e d r a f t s of t h e r e p o r t s and a r t i c l e s , or t r a n s c r i p t s of t h e meetings and d e l i b e r a t i o n s which l e d t o t h e w r i t i n g of memos or l e t t e r s , or b e t t e r s t i l l , t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o be a " p a r t i c i p a n t o b s e r v e r " of t h e s e p r o c e s s e s . Such r e s e a r c h i s c r i t i c a l i f what t h e s o c i o l o g i s t s of s c i e n c e have c a l l e d " n e g o t i a t i o n " i s t o be b e t t e r u n d e r s t o o d , and more p r a c t i c a l l y , improved. ( 1 3 7 ) C l e a r l y t h e n e g o t i a t i o n of knowledge i n s i t u a t i o n s t y p i c a l of d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n c e i s g e n e r a l l y e f f e c t i v e . I t has not t o d a t e proved so e f f e c t i v e i n t h e t r a n s - d i s c i p l i n a r y s i t u a t i o n s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of impact assessment and management s c i e n c e . D. Summary and C o n c l u s i o n s . In t h i s s e c t i o n I wish t o i m p l i c a t e some c e n t r a l f e a t u r e s of s c i e n c e which must be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e impact assessment and management p r o c e s s i f s c i e n c e i s t o be an e f f e c t i v e component of i t . The l a s t two c h a p t e r s have i n d i c a t e d the e x t e n t t o which problems commonly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s c i e n c e i n the c o n t e x t of impact assessment and management are i n f a c t g e n e r a l t o s c i e n c e . S i m i l a r d i s p u t e s e x i s t i n b o t h , o n l y t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l p r o c e s s e s of d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n c e a r e more a b l e t o r e s o l v e them w i t h a pparent p a r s i m o n y . In t h i s sense I am a r g u i n g t h a t a p p l i e d e n v i r o m e n t a l s c i e n c e , c h a r a c t e r i z e d as i t i s by d i s p u t e s over t h e " t r u t h " of f a c t s and impregnated by the i n t e r e s t s and v a l u e s of p a r t i c i p a n t s , i s not so d i f f e r e n t from t h e s c i e n t i f i c p r o j e c t as a whole. No e x p l a n a t i o n of t h e p r o d u c t s of s c i e n c e can n e g l e c t t h e m o t i v e s , t r a i n i n g , p r i o r a s s u m p t i o n s , and t h e o r i e s of i t s c r e a t o r s . What knowledge i s c r e a t e d , and how i t i s r e c e i v e d , cannot be e x p l a i n e d m erely by r e f e r e n c e t o an o b j e c t i v e r e a l i t y . Q u o t i n g Durkheim: " I t i s not enough t h a t [ c o n c e p t s ] be t r u e t o be b e l i e v e d " ( i n G i e r y n 1 9 8 2 i 3 3 0 ) . R e v i e w i n g t h e c o n c l u s i o n s of t h e l a s t two c h a p t e r s w h i l e f o c u s i n g on impact assessment and management h i g h l i g h t t h e f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s ! 1. Whatever r e s i d u e of p o s i t i v i s m e x i s t s among s c i e n t i s t s and t h e consumers of s c i e n c e - - d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , i n t e r e s t g r o u p s , and t h e p u b l i c — i s i n i m i c a l t o c r i t i c a l r e f l e c t i o n . P o s i t i v i s m r e s u l t s i n an unwarranted b e l i e f t h a t s c i e n c e i n v a r i a b l y p r o v i d e s a u t h o r i t a t i v e knowledge t o impact ( 1 3 8 ) a s s e s s o r s . In f a c t , a l l knowledge i s t o some e x t e n t c o n d i t i o n a l and ought t o be h o n e s t l y r e c o g n i s e d as su c h . As both Popper and Kuhn would have i t , t h e h o r i z o n of t r u t h i s i n f i n i t e l y d i s t a n t , and we must s e t t l e f o r c o n j e c t u r e . T h e r e f o r e , the p h i l o s o p h i c a l p o s i t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c and  n o n - s c i e n t i f i c p a r t i c i p a n t s i n impact assessment and management p r o c e s s e s  s h o u l d be t h e s u b j e c t of a p e r s o n a l and c o l l e c t i v e e x a m i n a t i o n . Those  m a i n t a i n i n g p o s i t i v i s t e p i s t e m o l o g i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e complex and  u n c e r t a i n a r e a s c h a r a c t e r i z i n g impact assessment and management s c i e n c e ,  expose t h e m s e l v e s t o an u n j u s t i f i e d c e r t a i n t y . 2. I n n o v a t i o n and b o l d c o n j e c t u r e have a p l a c e i n a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e , however t h e r e a re competing t e n d e n c i e s at work h e r e . On t h e one hand t h e complex and u n c e r t a i n n a t u r e of many of the problems t y p i c a l of impact assessment and management r e q u i r e s t h i s c r e a t i v e and c o m p e t i t i v e a p p r o a c h , but on t h e o t h e r d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s a re o f t e n p r e s s u r e d by c i r c u m s t a n c e t o a c t as i f s c i e n t i f i c knowledge were c o m p l e t e l y r e l i a b l e . T h i s t e n s i o n i s u n a v o i d a b l e and t h u s i s one w i t h which any p r o c e s s must  come t o terms. 3 . The c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s advanced by Popper (and r e f l e c t e d i n t h e quote by B e r l i n ) r e q u i r e s both an i n s t i t u t i o n a l and i n d i v i d u a l e x p r e s s i o n i n impact assessment and management s c i e n c e , p a r t i c u l a r l y g i v e n i t s complex and u n c e r t a i n n a t u r e . However, Kuhn's argument c o n c e r n i n g the i n c o m m e n s u r a b i l i t y of m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigms i n d i c a t e s t h a t where c o n f r o n t a t i o n s e x i s t between members of d i s c i p l i n e s t h a t do not s h a r e the same e x e m p l a r s , t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t h i s c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s w i l l depend on an e f f e c t i v e t r a n s l a t i o n (communication) of t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n s , c o n v e n t i o n s r e g a r d i n g o b s e r v a t i o n a l a c c u r a c y , s t a n d a r d s of v a l i d a t i o n , and so on. And t h i s i s l i k e l y t o be a " d i f f i c u l t and sometimes p a i n f u l a c t i v i t y " . T h i s l i n e of ( 1 3 9 ) t h ought f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n on t h e need f o r a c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l  r a t i o n a l i t y and a r e c o g n i t i o n of the d i f f i c u l t y posed by i n t e r a c t i o n s between d i f f e r i n g s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e s d u r i n g impact assessment and  management. 4. There i s an i n t e r p l a y between Popper's n o t i o n s of b o l d c o n j e c t u r e and r a d i c a l s c e p t i c i s m and t h e p o s i t i o n m a i n t a i n e d by Kuhn t h a t t h e p r o g r e s s of s c i e n c e depends on p e r i o d s where c r i t i c a l r e a s o n i s suspended i n f a v o r of normal s c i e n c e which s t r e t c h e s t h i n t h e f a b r i c of s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r i e s . T h i s i n t e r p l a y w i t h i n impact assessment and management between normal and e x t r a o r d i n a r y s c i e n c e (which Kuhn d e f i n e d as t h o s e t u m u l t u o u s p e r i o d s where e v e r y t h i n g was once more t h e s u b j e c t of debate) r e q u i r e s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , f o r s c i e n t i s t s might be e x p e c t e d t o behave q u i t e d i f f e r e n t l y under t h e s e two c o n d i t i o n s . Such d i s c r i m i n a t i o n has not e x p l i c i t l y o c c u r r e d . 5. As w e l l as t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigms based on common o b s e r v a t i o n l a n g uages and t h e o r i e s , s o c i a l paradigms e x i s t — c ommunities of l i k e - m i n d e d s c i e n t i s t s who p o t e n t i a l l y s h a r e common v a l u e s , i n t e r e s t s , and e x p e r i e n c e s ( c o n s i d e r t h e r e s p e c t i v e i n t e r e s t s and v a l u e p o s i t i o n s of f i s h e r i e s b i o l o g i s t s and m i n e r a l g e o l o g i s t s asked t o e v a l u a t e the e f f e c t of t a i l i n g s d i s p o s a l , f o r i n s t a n c e ) . These s h a r e d p o s i t i o n s , o p e r a t i n g  i n a c o n t e x t of u n c e r t a i n t y , can be e x p e c t e d t o i n f l u e n c e t h e outcome of  impact assessment and management c o n t r o v e r s i e s , and t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e  e x p l i c i t e x a m i n a t i o n . The r e v i e w of the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r both our e x p e c t a t i o n s of s c i e n c e and s c i e n t i s t s as p r o v i d e r s of " o b j e c t i v e " knowledge t o the impact assessment and management p r o c e s s , and f o r methods of i m p r o v i n g t h i s p r o c e s s : (140) 6. I n d i v i d u a l and group i n t e r e s t s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t i n impact assessment s c i e n c e , both i n d e t e r m i n i n g the f o c u s of r e s e a r c h and i n i n f l u e n c i n g t h e t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n s of p a r t i c i p a n t s . The e f f e c t s of  t h e s e i n t e r e s t s on t h e q u a l i t y of impact assessment and management  s c i e n c e must t h e r e f o r e be the s u b j e c t of s e l f - s c r u t i n y and c o n s t r u c t i v e  a d v e r s a r i a l c r i t i q u e i f the p r o c e s s i s t o a c h i e v e any l e v e l of  o b j e c t i v i t y . 7. I t i s t h e d i a l o g u e between t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s t r u c t s and o b s e r v a t i o n and ex p e r i m e n t which u l t i m a t e l y c o n s t r a i n s (though i t may not d e t e r m i n e ) t h e o r y c h o i c e , and which c o n f e r s c o n c r e t e n e s s and r e p i i c a b i 1 i t y upon t h e o r e t i c a l s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. Impact assessment and management has not always been u n d e r t a k e n i n a way which g e n e r a t e s and s u p p o r t s t h i s d i a l o g u e but has i n s t e a d t y p i c a l l y been one-time o n l y e f f o r t s t h a t have n e i t h e r been r e v i e w e d nor m o n i t o r e d . The r e c e n t t r e n d t o impact assessment ( r e a d g e n e r a t i o n of hy p o t h e s e s ) and management (r e a d c o p i n g w i t h t h e s u c c e s s or f a i l u r e of t h o s e h y p o t h e s e s ) can o n l y p o s i t i v e l y a f f e c t t he r e p l i c a b i l i t y of impact assessment and management s c i e n c e . However, i f r e p l i c a b l e r e s u l t s a r e t o be a c h i e v e d , an i n v e s t m e n t must be  made i n c r e a t i n g c o n t r o l l e d c o n d i t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e development. T h i s  r e q u i r e s an i n i t i a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of p e r t i n e n t u n c e r t a i n t i e s , and the development of a r e s e a r c h programme t o e x p l o r e them. 8. N e g o t i a t i o n of the c r e d i b i l i t y of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge as i t i s a p p l i e d t o impact assessment and management o c c u r s at a number of s t a g e s - - i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of l i t e r a t u r e , t he d e l i b e r a t i o n s and d e c i s i o n s of e x p e r t p a n e l s , and t h e a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h u n d e r t a k e n s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r the development. S c i e n c e c o u l d be more e f f e c t i v e l y l i n k e d t o impact  assessment and management i f t h e n e g o t i a t i o n which i m p l i c i t l y u n d e r l i e s  knowledge c l a i m s was made e x p l i c i t , and t h e r e f o r e the o b j e c t of p o s i t i v e "i \ \ (141) c r i t i c i s m and s p e c i f i c e f f o r t s t o d e s i g n t h a p r o c e s s a p p r o p r i a t e l y . What we know of s c i e n c e i s at once p h i l o s o p h i c a l , h i s t o r i c a l , and s o c i o l o g i c a l - - i t i s l o g i c tempered by an " a n a l y s i s [ t h a t ] must t a k e account of t h e way s c i e n c e has a c t u a l l y been p r a c t i c e d " (Kuhn 1970b 14). Our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the o b j e c t i v i t y of s c i e n c e as i t i s a p p l i e d t o impact assessment and management r e q u i r e s an e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e way i n which t h i s knowledge i s a c t u a l l y p r o d u c e d , as w e l l as i t s i d e a l i s t i c c o n s t i t u t i o n . These c h a p t e r s can now be r e l a t e d t o Cha p t e r 4. The i m p o r t a n c e of c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s i n c h a l l e n g i n g but c o o p e r a t i v e r e v i e w of the c o n d i t i o n s and p r o d u c t s of r e s e a r c h has been emphasized i n t h e e i g h t p o i n t s above. I m p l i c i t i n t h i s has been a p o s i t i o n t h a t t h e r e i s no p o i n t at which such r e v i e w i s s o l e l y a p p r o p r i a t e . I t must i n s t e a d i n c l u d e an element of r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n at e v e r y s t a g e of the r e s e a r c h p r o c e s s ; ex post a d v e r s a r i a l c r i t i q u e i s i n s u f f i c i e n t i n a s s u r i n g t h e form of communication and c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s which s c i e n c e r e q u i r e s . In es s e n c e t h i s c h a p t e r has proposed s u p p l a n t i n g c a l l s f o r o b j e c t i v i t y w i t h c a l l s f o r i n t e r - s u b j e c t i v i t y — r a t h e r than e x p e c t i n g a u t h o r i t a t i v e r e s o l u t i o n s of s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s based on " f a c t s " , we ought t o a s p i r e t o a c h i e v i n g agreement over a common s e t of a s s u m p t i o n s , methods of o b s e r v a t i o n , t h e o r e t i c a l q u e s t i o n s , and a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s , or i f agreement i s not p o s s i b l e , at l e a s t u n d e r s t a n d i n g where our d i s a g r e e m e n t s l i e . C r e a t i n g and s u s t a i n i n g forums f o r such communication, which i n c l u d e i n c e n t i v e s f o r c o o p e r a t i o n i n h o n e s t l y and u n c o m p r o m i s i n g l y a d d r e s s i n g d i f f e r e n c e s , i s t h e r e f o r e a c e n t r a l component of the e n v i r o n m e n t a l p l a n n e r ' s and s c i e n t i s t ' s mandate. < 1 4 2 ) CHAPTER 7  CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS PART I. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS. In t h i s c h a p t e r I summarize the c o n c l u s i o n s I have r e a c h e d based on the e x p e r i e n c e s of t h e Utah c a s e , t h e r e v i e w of t h e l i t e r a t u r e on s c i e n c e i n impact assessment and management, and the Popper-Kuhn debate and the s o c i o l o g y of s c i e n c e l i t e r a t u r e which a r o s e from i t . I b r i n g t h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s t o g e t h e r t o r e f o c u s on the causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s and on our r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n s of the r o l e t h a t s c i e n c e and s c i e n t i s t s may p l a y i n m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e . Next, I r e t u r n t o r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n and peer r e v i e w , and make recommendations on t h e o b j e c t i v e s of peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s , and on c r i t i c a l e l e ments which must be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s i f they a r e t o o p e r a t e e f f e c t i v e l y i n an a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e c o n t e x t . F i n a l l y , I i n d i c a t e a number of a r e a s on which r e s e a r c h s h o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e i f our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of and c o n t r o l over the r o l e of s c i e n t i s t s i n a p p l i e d s i t u a t i o n s i s t o improve. Throughout t h i s c h a p t e r I t a k e a p o s i t i v e approach by f o c u s i n g on what can be done t o i d e n t i f y t h e ca u s e s of d i s p u t e s and r e s o l v e them. However, I would not want t o be thought n a i v e — my a n a l y s i s has i n d i c a t e d t h a t many of the ca u s e s of d i s p u t e s c e n t r e on the i m p l i c i t a s s u m p t i o n s of s c i e n t i s t s , and t h e s e can be e x p e c t e d t o be both d i f f i c u l t t o expose and t o change i f t h a t i s r e q u i r e d . I have argued t h a t i t i s u n r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t s c i e n c e t o a l w a y s and c o m p l e t e l y s e t t l e e n v i r o n m e n t a l d i s p u t e s even where t h e i s s u e s i n v o l v e d a r e , on the s u r f a c e , e n t i r e l y t e c h n i c a l . In the Utah case t h i s e x p e c t a t i o n was c e r t a i n l y p r e v a l e n t among d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s and the s c i e n t i s t s t h e m s e l v e s . As a s o c i e t y we c o n t i n u e t o m a i n t a i n e x p e c t a t i o n s of o b j e c t i v i t y from s c i e n c e , ( 1 4 3 ) though p o s s i b l y t h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y a m b i v a l e n t . We p e r c e i v e s c i e n c e as an a u t h o r i t a t i v e methodology-- one which can ground our d i s p u t e s i n r a t i o n a l i t y and e m p i r i c a l f a c t , and th u s d i s s o l v e them. Our e x p e r i e n c e , however, has i n c r e a s i n g l y w a y l a i d our e x p e c t a t i o n s . As Wynne has commented i n h i s a n a l y s i s of IIASA's energy m o d e l l i n g s t u d i e s , "There i s t h e r e p e a t e d s p e c t a c l e of s c i e n t i s t s c l a i m i n g o b j e c t i v i t y or c e r t a i n t y , o n l y t o be unmasked not o n l y t o t h e i r own d i s c r e d i t but t o t h a t of a n a l y s i s and p o l i c y making g e n e r a l l y " (1983:109). The f a i l u r e t o d e f i n e an a p p r o p r i a t e r o l e f o r s c i e n c e , and t h e c o n t r o v e r s i e s t o which t h i s l e a d s , e r o d es c o n f i d e n c e i n s c i e n c e g e n e r a l l y , and p r e c l u d e s i t s a p p r o p r i a t e r o l e i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g (see Keep i n and Wynne 1984 f o r c o r r o b o r a t i o n of t h i s p o i n t ) . These u n r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n s of s c i e n t i f i c o b j e c t i v i t y have emerged th r o u g h an e x p l i c i t or i m p l i c i t a c c e p t a n c e of somB form of n a i v e e m p i r i c i s m . Though such p h i l o s o p h i e s have been c r i t i c i z e d by Popper and by Kuhn, they c o n t i n u e t o i n f l u e n c e t h e b e l i e f i n an unmediated c o n n e c t i o n between r e a l i t y and our e x p l a n a t i o n s of i t . But i f , as both Popper and Kuhn would c l a i m , our o b s e r v a t i o n s of t h e w o r l d a r e p r e f i g u r e d by our e x p l a n a t i o n s , any s i m p l e c o n n e c t i o n between n a t u r e and t h e o r y i s l o s t . I n s t e a d , o b s e r v a t i o n and e x p l a n a t i o n must be c o n c e i v e d as o p e r a t i n g r e f l e x i v e l y w i t h i n t h e "knowing s u b j e c t " - - w h i c h , as Kuhn has made us c l e a r l y aware, i s not an i n d i v i d u a l , but some s o c i a l group of s c i e n t i s t s o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n a m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigm. Our p r i o r t h e o r e t i c a l commitments s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e what o b s e r v a t i o n s we p e r c e i v e t o be r e l e v a n t , and what d i r e c t i o n s t h e f u t u r e t r a j e c t o r y of s c i e n c e w i l l t a k e . In a d d i t i o n , though some e x p l a n a t i o n s a r e p r e c l u d e d by n a t u r e , not a l l a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s a r e . T h e o r i e s remain " u n d e r d e t e r m i n e d by t h e e v i d e n c e " , and i n such s i t u a t i o n s c h o i c e s between t h e o r i e s cannot be made e n t i r e l y t h r o u g h r e l i a n c e on l o g i c and e m p i r i c a l (144) e v i d e n c e . I n s t e a d , t h e o r y c h o i c e must be i n p a r t based on c r i t e r i a such as the s i m p l i c i t y , scope, h e u r i s t i c power, c o n s i s t e n c y , e l e g a n c e , and a c c u r a c y of a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r i e s . But t h e s e c r i t e r i a a r e c o n v e n t i o n s which e x p r e s s the v a l u e commitments which u n d e r p i n the s c i e n t i f i c e n t e r p r i s e — d u r i n g p e r i o d s of t h e o r y c h o i c e t h e y f r e q u e n t l y c o n f l i c t , and t h e r e can t h e r e f o r e be no r u l e by which b e t t e r or worse t h e o r i e s can always be c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d . I f t h e t h e o r y l a d e n e s s of o b s e r v a t i o n and t h e u n d e r d e t e r m i n a t i o n of t h e o r i e s by t h e e v i d e n c e a r e a c c e p t e d , then a u t h o r i t a t i v e o b j e c t i v i t y can never be a c h i e v e d , and t o e x p e c t i t i s u n r e a s o n a b l e . In such c i r c u m s t a n c e s , s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s have more f e r t i l e ground i n which t o d e v e l o p than the n a i v e e m p i r i c i s t would a d m i t . Mary Hesse has s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h r e e c o n d i t i o n s must e x i s t f o r t h e r e t o be s u c c e s s f u l l e a r n i n g about t h e w o r l d . These a r e t " t h e r e must be s u f f i c i e n t p o s s i b i l i t y of d e t a i l e d t e s t t o r e i n f o r c e c o r r e c t l e a r n i n g ; the environment must be s u f f i c i e n t l y s t a b l e f o r t h e s e l f - c o r r e c t i v e l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s t o c o n v e r g e ; and t h e r e must not be such s t r o n g a c t i o n by t h e [ l e a r n e r ] on i t s e n v ironment t h a t e i t h e r i t e x h i b i t s no c o n v e r g e n c e , or what [ i s ] l e a r n e d i s j u s t an a r t e f a c t of t h e [ l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s ] i t s e l f " (1980s 182, emphasis i n t h e o r i g i n a l ) . Each of t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i s r e q u i r e d f o r t h e r e t o be e f f e c t i v e feedback between the l e a r n e r and i t s e n v i r o n m e n t . To t h e s e t h r e e c o n d i t i o n s (which form t h e b a s i s of much of t h e d i s c u s s i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e methodology i n Chapter 4) we must add a f o u r t h , which a r i s e s from Kuhn's a n a l y s i s of s c i e n t i f i c c ommunities and t h e i r u n d e r p i n n i n g s i n m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigms. E f f e c t i v e s o c i a l l e a r n i n g r e q u i r e s some method of c r e a t i n g i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y . W i t h i n a s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e t h i s i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y o r i g i n a t e s i n i t s p r a c t i t i o n e r s ' s h a r e d e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h t h e e x e m p l a r s of t h a t d i s c i p l i n e . Between d i s c i p l i n e s i t can o n l y o r i g i n a t e i n e f f e c t i v e communication of the ( 1 4 5 ) c o n c e p t u a l a s s u m p t i o n s h e l d by t h e p r a c t i t i o n e r s of t h o s e d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n e s . I t i s t h e f a i l u r e t o communicate t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s , and t o t h e r e b y a c h i e v e i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y , which i s at t h e r o o t of the f a i l u r e s t o r e s o l v e t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n t i f i c problems u s i n g i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y a p p r o a c h e s . I t i s i n t h i s sense t h a t I b e l i e v e t h a t s o c i e t y ' s e x p e c t a t i o n of a u t h o r i t a t i v e o b j e c t i v i t y from s c i e n c e are m i s p l a c e d . The r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n i s not a u t h o r i t a t i v e o b j e c t i v i t y , but c o n s t r u c t e d i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y . The f a i l u r e t o c r e a t e i n t e r s u b j e c t i v i t y l i e s at the h e a r t of many s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s . The forums where t h e s e d i s p u t e s must be  r e s o l v e d s h o u l d have, as t h e i r f i r s t o b j e c t i v e , t h e c r e a t i o n of  i n t e r s u b j e c t i v e u n d e r s t a n d i n g . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t t h e c o g n i t i v e a s s u m p t i o n s  of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a d i s p u t e a r e as much th e f o c u s of r e v i e w and e v a l u a t i o n  as a r e t h e s u b s t a n t i v e c l a i m s of t h e d i s p u t a n t s . The l e v e l of u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t p a r t i c i p a n t s t o d i s p u t e s must a c h i e v e t r a n s c e n d s t h e m erely s u b s t a n t i v e ; i t must p e n e t r a t e t o the c o n c e p t u a l f o u n d a t i o n s of t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s ' u n d e r s t a n d i n g s of t h e w o r l d . T h i s a l o n e s u g g e s t s t h a t forums f o r s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n cannot be a u t h o r i t a t i v e , but must i n s t e a d be c o n s e n s u a l . A. The Causes of S c i e n t i f i c D i s p u t e s . The causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s a r e v a r i e d , and form a c o m p l e x l y t e x t u r e d f a b r i c . I began my d i s c u s s i o n of c o n f l i c t s i n Chapter 4, by n o t i n g Lord e t al_'s d i s t i n c t i o n between v a l u e , i n t e r e s t , and c o g n i t i v e c o n f l i c t . C h a p t e r s 5 and 6 i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n of c o n f l i c t i s at b e s t h e u r i s t i c , and t h a t we can e x p e c t s c i e n t i f i c ( i e . , c o g n i t i v e ) d i s p u t e s t o e x h i b i t e l ements of both v a l u e and i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t . S c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s e x t e n d w e l l beyond d i s a g r e e m e n t s over a c c e p t a b l e s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e — what i s a c c e p t a b l e m e t h o d o l o g y — though t h i s has been t h e f o c u s of much of the l i t e r a t u r e on the s c i e n t i f i c r o l e i n impact assessment and management. My ( 1 4 6 ) c a t e g o r i z a t i o n of t h e causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s would i n c l u d e the f o l l o w i n g ( i n r o u g h l y the o r d e r i n which they were brought up i n t h e t e x t ) i 1. C o m p l e x i t y and u n c e r t a i n t y i The problems which e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n t i s t s commonly f a c e a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by c o m p l e x i t y and u n c e r t a i n t y . T h i s c o m b i n a t i o n makes the c o n t r o l l e d e x p e r i m e n t a l method d i f f i c u l t t o a p p l y . Very o f t e n o n l y "weak" e x p e r i m e n t s may be used, where r e p l i c a b l e s i t u a t i o n s cannot be e n t i r e l y r e c r e a t e d . As C a r l W a l t e r s has f r e q u e n t l y n o t e d , t h i s l e a v e s us w i t h i n s i g h t , but not n e c e s s a r i l y f o r e s i g h t . In such c i r c u m s t a n c e s d i s p u t e s over e x p l a n a t i o n s a r e o f f e r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y more scope than i n l a b o r a t o r y s c i e n c e s . The s e t of problems r a i s e d by the complex and u n c e r t a i n n a t u r e of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e can i n p a r t be d e a l t w i t h by u s i n g t h e b e s t a v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c a l methodology and r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , but i n p a r t must a l s o j u s t be a c c e p t e d . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t on o c c a s i o n the a p p r o p r i a t e r o l e of s c i e n t i s t s might be more t o d e l i n e a t e u n c e r t a i n t i e s (such as n a t u r a l v a r i a b i l i t y or i g n o r a n c e ) than t o r e s o l v e them. D e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s must a c c e p t t h i s as a r e a s o n a b l e o b j e c t i v e . 2. L o g i s t i c a l f a i l i n g s i S c i e n t i s t s a r e commonly asked t o p r o v i d e answers when the t i m e t h e y have a v a i l a b l e does not a l l o w the p e r i o d of r e s e a r c h r e q u i r e d . F r e q u e n t l y t h e r e i s l a c k of c o m m u n i c a t i o n — f i n d i n g s a r e not r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , or a r e not e f f e c t i v e l y t r a n s m i t t e d t o d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e way i n which s c i e n t i s t s ' c o n c l u s i o n s are used i s f r e q u e n t l y not c l e a r l y s t a t e d . Under t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s the e x a c t r o l e of s c i e n t i s t s i s o b s c u r e . A l l of t h e s e problems i n c r e a s e t h e l i k e l i h o o d of d i s a g r e e m e n t s both w i t h i n the s c i e n t i f i c community, and between i t and t h e consumers of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e — d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , p u b l i c i n t e r e s t g r o u p s , and b u r e a u c r a t s . T h e i r s o l u t i o n s l i e i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e r o l e of s c i e n t i s t s c l e a r l y , and i n i m p r o v i n g t h e p r o c e s s (147) by which s c i e n t i s t s c o n t r i b u t e t o impact assessment and management d e c i s i o n s , as I have d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter 4. 3. Poor methodology: T h i s i s t h e f a i l i n g commonly, though f r e q u e n t l y i m p l i c i t l y , i d e n t i f i e d w i t h i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e on t h e r o l e of s c i e n c e i n impact assessment and management. Not o n l y do d i s p u t e s o c c u r when methodology has been l e s s r i g o r o u s than i s n o r m a l l y a c c e p t e d f o r t h a t d i s c i p l i n e - - both the r e s u l t s and t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n can then be r e a d i l y c o n t e s t e d — but major d i f f e r e n c e s can o c c u r between s c i e n t i s t s over what i s i n f a c t the a p p r o p r i a t e l e v e l of m e t h o d o l o g i c a l r i g o r . The s o l u t i o n s o f f e r e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , and summarized i n Chapter 4, n o r m a l l y suggest a p p l y i n g t h e b e s t a v a i l a b l e s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e . T h i s , f o r i n s t a n c e , i s t h e t h r u s t of t h e approach recommended by Beanlands and D u i n k e r (1982) and Rosenburg and Resh (1981). However, t h i s approach has i t s own f a i l i n g s : a. ) C o n c e n t r a t i o n on t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l c a u s e s of d i s p u t e s d e f l e c t s a t t e n t i o n from the o t h e r p o s s i b l e causes I d i s c u s s . b. ) Good methodology may be n e i t h e r s e l f - e v i d e n t nor easy t o a p p l y — i t i t s e l f becomes a l o c u s of d i s a g r e e m e n t . What becomes d a t a , f o r i n s t a n c e , i s i n p a r t d e t e r m i n e d by the t h e o r e t i c a l commitments of the s c i e n t i s t , and a s c i e n t i s t of a n o t h e r t h e o r e t i c a l a f f i l i a t i o n might w e l l d i s a g r e e over i t s r e l e v a n c e . The c r i t e r i a t h a t d e t e r m i n e whether a d a t a s e t i s r e l i a b l e a re t h e m s e l v e s t h e s u b j e c t of d i s a g r e e m e n t . T h i s i s why e v i d e n c e i s so o f t e n u p h e l d by one p a r t y and d i s r e g a r d e d by a n o t h e r (the EP8-UBC IA d i s p u t e b e i n g a c a s e i n p o i n t ) . The d i f f i c u l t i e s e n c o u n t e r e d i n a g r e e i n g on the r e l e v a n c e and q u a l i t y of d a t a a r e e x a c e r b a t e d when d i s a g r e e m e n t s a r e extended i n t o r e s e a r c h d e s i g n or the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of d a t a , p a r t i c u l a r l y when u n c e r t a i n t y i s p e r v a s i v e . Kuhn has s u g g e s t e d t h a t s c i e n t i s t s ' v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e i r w i l l i n g n e s s t o abandon models or t h e o r i e s i n the f a c e of a n o m a l i e s i s ( 1 4 8 ) i n f a c t an element of t h e s u c c e s s of s c i e n c e , and i s not o n l y i n e v i t a b l e but h e a l t h y . Seen i n t h i s l i g h t , t he d i s p u t e s l i k e t h o s e which s u r r o u n d e d f j o r d c i r c u l a t i o n models i n Rupert I n l e t can t a k e on a v e r y d i f f e r e n t c o m p l e x i o n , c.) " P e r f e c t " s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e i s not always a p p r o p r i a t e p r a c t i c e . Time and r e s o u r c e s may be u n a v a i l a b l e , or t h e s o c i a l p r i o r i t y a c c o r d e d t o t h e problem may not be s u f f i c i e n t l y h i g h t o make r i g o r o u s s c i e n t i f i c e f f o r t s w o r t h w h i l e . In such c i r c u m s t a n c e s s c i e n t i s t s might b e t t e r d i r e c t t h e i r e f f o r t s t o e x p l i c i t l y a c h i e v i n g a reasoned compromise than t o u p h o l d i n g an i n a p p r o p r i a t e i d e a l of s c i e n t i f i c p u r i t y . Though I do not argue a g a i n s t m e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y sound s c i e n c e , I do b e l i e v e t h a t t h i s i s s u e has d e f l e c t e d i n t e r e s t from o t h e r i m p o r t a n t c o n c e r n s . A l l of t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s s u ggest t h a t m e t h o d o l o g i c a l i s s u e s a r e t h e m s e l v e s complex and o f t e n w i l l have no o b v i o u s s o l u t i o n . They t h e m s e l v e s w i l l be the s u b j e c t of d i s p u t e . 4. T r a n s d i s c i p i i n a r y d i s p u t e s over t h e r e l e v a n c e of r e s e a r c h a b l e q u e s t i o n s ; The need f o r forums f o r s o c i a l and s c i e n t i f i c s c o p i n g have been proposed i n C hapter 4. These forums can be e x p e c t e d t o not o n l y have t o d e a l w i t h d i s p u t e s which c e n t r e on the s o c i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e of p a r t i c u l a r s c i e n t i f i c i s s u e s , and w i t h t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e s e i s s u e s a r e r e s e a r c h a b l e , but a l s o must contend w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s of s c i e n t i s t s who a d d r e s s t h e s e t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y i s s u e s . The a s s u m p t i o n s which u n d e r p i n such d i v e r g e n t t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s must emerge, and be d B a l t w i t h e x p l i c i t l y , i f t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s which v a r i o u s d i s c i p l i n e s can make t o a p a r t i c u l a r e n v i r o n m e n t a l problem a re t o be e v a l u a t e d . 5. T r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y d i s p u t e s over what i s a c c e p t a b l e s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e : Though t h e s e a r e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l d i s p u t e s , t h e y have a p a r t i c u l a r o r i g i n i n ( 1 4 9 ) t h e t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y n a t u r e of the problems of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e . They r e l a t e t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e a s s u m p t i o n s t h a t s c i e n t i s t s t r a i n e d i n d i f f e r e n t m e t h o d o l o g i c a l paradigms b r i n g w i t h t h e m — d i f f e r e n c e s i n c o n v e n t i o n s over what i s a c c e p t a b l e measurement e r r o r , or i n the s t a n d a r d s t h a t a r e a p p l i e d t o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of e v i d e n c e ( i e . , what i s a v a l i d i n f e r e n c e ) , or even i n the a c c e p t a b i l i t y of e x p e r i m e n t a l as opposed t o s t a t i s t i c a l ( i e . , " e p i d e m i o l o g i c a l " ) approaches t o r e s e a r c h d e s i g n . A. V a l u e c o n f l i c t s ; S c i e n t i s t s commonly i n t i m a t e l y i n c l u d e p r e s c r i p t i o n s a l o n g w i t h t h e i r d a t a and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . These p r e s c r i p t i o n s may i n v o l v e c o n f l i c t s over v a l u e p o s i t i o n s which a r e i n t i m a t e l y t i e d t o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of e v i d e n c e made by the s c i e n t i s t . Though many of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s over v a l u e s o r i g i n a t e w i t h i n t h e d i f f e r e n t h i s t o r i e s and p r e f e r e n c e s of i n d i v i d u a l s , many may a r i s e t h r o u g h c l o s e a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h a d i s c i p l i n a r y community who o f t e n s h a r e common v a l u e s . F i s h e r i e s b i o l o g i s t s , both t h r o u g h i n c l i n a t i o n and t r a i n i n g , can as a c o r p o r a t e group be e x p e c t e d t o have a d i f f e r e n t s e t of v a l u e s than m i n e r a l e n g i n e e r s . Such r e g u l a r d i f f e r e n c e s i n v a l u e s can and s h o u l d be a n t i c i p a t e d . 7. I n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t s ; As Chapter 6 has i n d i c a t e d , v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e i n t e r e s t s of both s c i e n t i s t s and t h e consumers of s c i e n c e v a r y w i d e l y . Where t h e s e i n t e r e s t s a r e i n s t r u m e n t a l , as where an i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t ' s i n t e r e s t i n achievement p r e c l u d e s t h e i r a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e , i n t e r e s t s can be r e l a t i v e l y r e a d i l y i d e n t i f i e d . Where i n t e r e s t s more d e e p l y pervade s o c i a l l i f e , and a r e t h u s s y s t e m i c , t h e i r e x p o s u r e r e q u i r e s c o n s i d e r a b l y more i n t r o s p e c t i o n and i s c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y more d i f f i c u l t . I n t e r e s t s pervade our d e c i s i o n s over what i s or i s not worthy of s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h , and of c o u r s e i n f l u e n c e both what we choose t o o b s e r v e and how we i n t e r p r e t t h o s e o b s e r v a t i o n s . Many ( 1 5 0 ) s c i e n t i f i c c o n f l i c t s o r i g i n a t e w i t h i n the i m p l i c i t d e f e n s e of i n t e r e s t s . Though making i n t e r e s t s e x p l i c i t i s not a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n f o r t h e r e s o l u t i o n of d i s p u t e s which i n c l u d e a component of i n t e r e s t c o n f l i c t , i t i s a n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n . 8. F a i l u r e s i n t h e n e g o t i a t i o n of c r e d i b i l i t y ; As I noted i n Chapter 6, s o c i o l o g i s t s of s c i e n c e have not a d e q u a t e l y d e s c r i b e d and c a t e g o r i z e d how c r e d i b i l i t y i s n e g o t i a t e d among groups of s c i e n t i f i c p e e r s , e i t h e r f o r m a l l y or i n f o r m a l l y . In a d d i t i o n , they have g i v e n no a t t e n t i o n t o the n e g o t i a t i o n of c r e d i b i l i t y between s c i e n t i s t s of d i f f e r i n g d i s c i p l i n e s . I t can r e a s o n a b l y be s u r m i s e d t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e s e p r o c e s s e s e x i s t , and can l e a d t o d i s a g r e e m e n t s , however more r e s e a r c h i n t h i s c r i t i c a l and d i f f i c u l t a r e a i s r e q u i r e d . I t s h o u l d be r e i t e r a t e d t h a t the c a u s e s of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s a r e t y p i c a l l y i n t e r w o v e n . D i s e n t a n g l i n g t h e i s s u e s t h a t i n f a c t provoke d i s a g r e e m e n t s i s u n l i k e l y t o be s i m p l e . The degree of communication t h a t t h i s r e q u i r e s i m p l i e s t h a t d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s e s must i n v o l v e c o n s i d e r a b l e d i a l o g u e under c o n d i t i o n s t h a t are not t h r e a t e n i n g t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t s . B. The O b j e c t i v e s of C r i t i c a l Peer Review. Throughout t h i s t h e s i s I have argued t h a t o b j e c t i v i t y i s i n l a r g e p a r t won t h r o u g h c o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s , i e . peer r e v i e w , though I have i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s p r o c e s s has had a purpose somewhat b r o a d e r than t h a t proposed by Popper. I t i s peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s t h a t a r e the major e f f e c t i v e a r b i t e r of d i s p u t e s i n d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n c e . Though I b e l i e v e t h a t r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n and r e v i e w i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e must i n c l u d e n o n - s c i e n t i f i c p a r t i c i p a n t s — d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , i n t e r e s t g r o u p s , and t h e p u b l i c — I s h a l l not c o n s i d e r t h e s e b r o a d e r r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s h e r e . In k e e p i n g w i t h t h e t h r u s t of my t h e s i s I l i m i t m y s e l f t o peer r e v i e w , though I i n c l u d e s c i e n t i s t s from a l l ( 1 5 1 ) d i s c i p l i n e s i n my d e f i n i t i o n of "peer". Though many of t h e causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s a p p l y t o both d i s c i p l i n a r y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e , most a r e e x a c e r b a t e d i n m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e , and where t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y problems are a d d r e s s e d , u n i q u e d i s a g r e e m e n t s may be e n c o u n t e r e d . For t h e s e r e a s o n s peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s f u l f i l l a g r e a t e r range of f u n c t i o n s i n a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c i e n c e , and must do so under more s t r e s s f u l c i r c u m s t a n c e s . Peer r e v i e w has, as i t o p e r a t e s i n most "normal" d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n t i f i c c o n t e x t s , a l i m i t e d number of p u r p o s e s . These i n c l u d e i 1. a s s e s s i n g a s c i e n t i s t ' s m e t h o d o l o g i c a l soundness, e i t h e r d u r i n g r e v i e w of g r a n t p r o p o s a l s , or d u r i n g r e v i e w of p u b l i c a t i o n s ! 2. a s s e s s i n g t h e cogency of a s c i e n t i s t ' s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a (which n o r m a l l y appears under t h e s e c t i o n " D i s c u s s i o n and C o n c l u s i o n s " of a s c i e n t i f i c r e p o r t ) ) and, 3. assessment of t h e v a l u e of a r e s e a r c h s t u d y t o t h e advancement of t h e d i s c i p l i n e — r e s e a r c h i s judged on whether i t i s or i s not t r i v i a l . In o t h e r words, peer r e v i e w i n n o r m a l , d i s c i p l i n e - b a s e d s c i e n c e , o p e r a t e s on the i n d i v i d u a l p r a c t i t i o n e r and o f t e n at a d i s t a n c e (the two major forums a r e r e v i e w of g r a n t p r o p o s a l s , and r e f e r e e d p u b l i c a t i o n s , both of which a r e at a d i s t a n c e ; c o n f e r e n c e s and i n f o r m a l d i s c u s s i o n and c i r c u l a t i o n of d r a f t s o f f e r s more i n f o r m a l s e t t i n g s ) . T h i s f o l l o w s from Kuhn's c o n c e p t i o n of the f u n c t i o n s of peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s . These p u r p o s e s , and the f o c u s on the q u a l i t y of t h e i n d i v i d u a l s c i e n t i s t , a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t t o meet t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s of c r i t i c a l r e v i e w of t h e r e s e a r c h p r o p o s a l s and p r o d u c t s of m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e . We must d e v e l o p a c r i t i c a l a t t i t u d e t o t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n t e x t and s o c i a l bases of knowledge as w e l l . Peer r e v i e w must t h e r e f o r e a d d i t i o n a l l y i n c l u d e e l e m e n t s of t h e f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s . ( 1 5 2 ) 4. U n l i k e t h e s i t u a t i o n i n d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n c e , t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y s c i e n c e produces (or s h o u l d ) a p l e t h o r a of d i f f e r i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and app r o a c h e s . I t i s more l i k e l y t o i n v o l v e b o l d c o n j e c t u r e , and peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s must, as Popper s u g g e s t s , winnow t h e s e i d e a s . C o l l e c t i v e c r i t i c a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s s h o u l d o p e r a t e t o both produce a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s and t o s e l e c t from t h e s e the ones of most immediate v a l u e . 5. The r e l e v a n c e of d i f f e r e n t d i s c i p l i n a r y approaches t o problems must a l s o be e v a l u a t e d and a s u b s e t chosen from t h e s e . Peer r e v i e w of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n t h u s has a mandate more e x t e n s i v e than merely a s s e s s i n g t h e methodology t h e s c i e n t i s t i n t e n d s t o a p p l y . I t ext e n d s t o i n c l u d e assessment of t h e v a l u e of a d i s c i p l i n e ' s c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n of a pr o b l e m , and t h e r e s o l u t i o n of c o n f l i c t s over what c o n s t i t u t e s a c c e p t a b l e s c i e n t i f i c p r a c t i c e . 6. Peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s must a l s o s u r f a c e a s s u m p t i o n s h e l d by s c i e n t i s t s r e g a r d i n g t h e i r v a l u e s and t h e i n t e r e s t s which m o t i v a t e them. 7. F i n a l l y , t h o s e i n v o l v e d i n peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s must r e f l e c t upon t h e i r own r o l e , which i s t h e n e g o t i a t i o n of c r e d i b i l i t y . The demands made on peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s d e s i g n e d f o r m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e can t h e r e f o r e be p r e d i c t e d t o exceed t h o s e used i n d i s c i p l i n a r y s i t u a t i o n s . Y e t , as I noted i n Chapter 4, t h e peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s commonly recommended f o r m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e g e n e r a l l y p a r a l l e l t h o s e used i n d i s c i p l i n a r y s i t u a t i o n s . Though I do not doubt t h a t i m p l e m e n t i n g even t h e s e l i m i t e d recommendations would improve m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e ( f o r at t h e moment l i t t l e , i f any, r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n commonly o c c u r s ) , t h e s e recommendations do not go f a r enough. A c h i e v i n g t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s cannot a l w a y s be a c c o m p l i s h e d i n forums which o p e r a t e f o r m a l l y and w i t h o u t d i a l o g u e . ( 1 5 3 ) PART I I . RECOMMENDATIONS. C. The I n d i v i d u a l i n Impact Assessment and Management. B e f o r e t u r n i n g t o recommendations f o r peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s t h a t might a c h i e v e the above o b j e c t i v e s , I b e l i e v e i t i m p o r t a n t t o i n d i c a t e t h a t p r o c e s s i s i n i t s e l f not enough t o g u a r a n t e e t h e e f f e c t i v e use of s c i e n c e i n impact assessment and management. No p r o c e s s w i l l o p e r a t e e f f e c t i v e l y i f t h o s e who are i n v o l v e d i n i t do not p o s s e s s t h e p e r s o n a l q u a l i t i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r i t s s u c c e s s . The s e a r c h f o r p e r f e c t p r o c e s s i s m i s d i r e c t e d i f i t i s e x p e c t e d t o overcome t h e f a i l i n g s of t h e i n d i v i d u a l s i n v o l v e d i n i t . P r a c t i t i o n e r s must p o s s e s s or d e v e l o p the f o l l o w i n g q u a l i t i e s : 1. T h e i r p h i l o s o p h y of s c i e n c e , i m p l i c i t or e x p l i c i t , must r e f l e c t t h e need f o r s e l f - d o u b t and r e f l e c t i o n . P o s i t i v i s t a t t i t u d e s promote u n r e a l i s t i c e x p e c t a t i o n s of s c i e n c e g e n e r a l l y and u n t e n a b l e c e r t a i n t y s p e c i f i c a l l y . 2 . In a d d i t i o n t o a w i l l i n g n e s s t o m a i n t a i n a c r i t i c a l a t t i t u d e t o s c i e n t i f i c i d e a s , s c i e n t i s t s must be p r e p a r e d t o c o n f r o n t t h e i r own v a l u e s , i n t e r e s t s , and t h e o r e t i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s . 3. A p e r s o n a l l y c r i t i c a l a t t i t u d e must be combined w i t h t h e a b i l i t y t o u n d e r s t a n d the v a l u e s , i n t e r e s t s , and t h e o r e t i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s h e l d by o t h e r s . 4. In m a i n t a i n i n g t h i s c r i t i c a l a t t i t u d e , t h e s c i e n t i s t must be p o s i t i v e . S c i e n t i f i c t r a i n i n g appears t o promote n e g a t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l c r i t i c i s m . Such n e g a t i v e c r i t i c i s m both f a i l s t o g e n e r a t e s o l u t i o n s f o r e x i s t i n g p r o b l e m s , and p r e c l u d e s b u i l d i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s between s c i e n t i s t s which encourage t h e s o l u t i o n of f u t u r e problems. S c i e n t i s t s who are t h e o b j e c t of such c r i t i c i s m can be e x p e c t e d e i t h e r t o withdraw from m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d p r o b l e m s , or t o c o n c e n t r a t e on i s s u e s where l i t t l e c o n f l i c t i s l i k e l y t o a r i s e . In e i t h e r case t h e i r t a l e n t s a r e l o s t t o ( 1 5 4 ) f u t u r e s i t u a t i o n s . 5. S c i e n t i s t s must encourage i n t e r p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y between t h e m s e l v e s and t h o s e who come from o t h e r d i s c i p l i n a r y b ackgrounds. The r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s t h a t t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y problems pose i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e . Kuhn might be r e q u i r e d r e a d i n g ! Ozawa and S u s s k i n d (1984) have proposed the use of m e d i a t o r s t o f a c i l i t a t e t h i s c ommunication. H o l l i n g et^ a l _ (1978) have s i m i l a r l y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t "wise men" p l a y such r o l e s i n t h e i r m o d e l l i n g workshops. Both t h e s e groups r e c o g n i z e the i m p o r t a n c e of l e a d e r s h i p i n i n f l u e n c i n g group dynamics. Such l e a d e r s must demo n s t r a t e t h e a b i l i t y t o communicate e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h both s c i e n t i s t s of d i f f e r i n g d i s c i p l i n e s and w i t h d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s and t h e p u b l i c (an a b i l i t y which i s a p p a r e n t l y not so r e a d i l y f o u n d ) . 6. E f f e c t i v e communicators must f o c u s on a s s u m p t i o n s , not c o n c l u s i o n s . By d o i n g so th e y s t i m u l a t e d i a l o g u e , not d e f e n s i v e n e s s . S c i e n t i s t s a r e not e x p l i c i t l y t r a i n e d t o d e v e l o p some of the above q u a l i t i e s . They s h o u l d be. D. C r e a t i n g Forums f o r D i s p u t e R e s o l u t i o n ; A p p r o p r i a t e Peer Review P r o c e s s e s  f o r M i s s i o n - O r i e n t e d S c i e n c e . In t h i s s e c t i o n I d i s c u s s the c r i t i c a l e l e ments of peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s and p r o v i d e b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n s of how such p r o c e s s e s may have o p e r a t e d i n t h e Utah Mine's c a s e . Normal p r o c e s s e s of peer r e v i e w a r e e x - p o s t , but where s c i e n c e e x i s t s t o s u p p o r t e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , such p r o c e s s e s p r e c l u d e i t s e f f e c t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n . Peer r e v i e w by p u b l i c a t i o n i n r e f e r e e d j o u r n a l s i s such a c a s e — t h e p r o c e s s i s so ti m e consuming t h a t d e c i s i o n s w i l l l i k e l y have been ( 1 5 5 ) made b e f o r e t h e c o n c l u s i o n s on which they were based can be a s s e s s e d . R e p o r t s produced by c o n s u l t a n t s l i k e l y do not b e n e f i t from the i n f o r m a l r e v i e w p r o c e s s which many s c i e n t i s t s would n o r m a l l y u se-- t h e c i r c u l a t i o n of d r a f t s , or t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n of papers at c o n f e r e n c e s p r i o r t o p u b l i c a t i o n . P r oposed s o l u t i o n s , such as the s c i e n c e c o u r t , a l s o have t h e i r f a i l i n g s . In t h i s case t h e r e v i e w t a k e s p l a c e w i t h i n a l e g a l l y a d v e r s a r i a l forum where d e f e n s i v e , as opposed t o c o n s t r u c t i v e , r e s p o n s e s a r e almost a s s u r e d . Such d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n forums may have t h e i r p l a c e as a f i n a l r e s o r t , but s o l u t i o n s based on consensus s h o u l d f i r s t be sought. The m e d i a t i o n of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s o f f e r s s o l u t i o n s i n p a r t i c u l a r i n s t a n c e s , but o n l y a s m a l l number of d i s p u t e s w i l l ever be f o r m a l l y m e d i a t e d , and y e t t h e s e o t h e r d i s p u t e s a l s o r e q u i r e r e s o l u t i o n . Peer r e v i e w r e q u i r e s some f o r m a l p r o c e s s t o i n i t i a t e i t , and t h i s might be p u b l i c a t i o n , a s c i e n c e c o u r t , or m e d i a t i o n . But more commonly t h e s e d i s p u t e s come b e f o r e some permanent or ad hoc v a r i a t i o n on a r e v i e w committee. These may be i n t e r a g e n c y c o m m i t t e e s , or g o v e r n m e n t - i n d u s t r y t a s k f o r c e s , or some o t h e r v a r i a t i o n on t h e theme. In e i t h e r case such committees or p a n e l s a r e asked t o e v a l u a t e e i t h e r proposed r e s e a r c h or i t s p r o d u c t s . It i s c e n t r a l t h a t some peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s can be i d e n t i f i e d — t h o s e  c o n t r i b u t i n g s c i e n t i f i c e x p e r t i s e t o d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s s h o u l d be a b l e t o  i d e n t i f y a peer community, and an e f f e c t i v e r e v i e w and e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s . C r i t i c a l e l e m e n t s t h e s e r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s must i n c o r p o r a t e a r e t 1. The p r o c e s s e s must be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i f they a r e t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r both t h e range of e x p e r t i s e and of i n t e r e s t s t h a t a r e r e q u i r e d t o d e f i n e and r e s o l v e a d i s p u t e . 2. They must be s u f f i c i e n t l y i n f o r m a l t h a t honest communication i s ( 1 5 6 ) e n c o u r a g e d , and p o s t u r i n g d i s c o u r a g e d . 3. Forums must o p e r a t e both e x - a n t e , and e x - p o s t , as a p p r o p r i a t e . Review of r e s e a r c h p r o p o s a l s i s as i m p o r t a n t as e v a l u a t i o n of r e p o r t s , a r t i c l e s , or e v i d e n c e . In both c a s e s t h e y s h o u l d be t i m e l y . 4. Peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s s h o u l d i n c l u d e i n t h e i r mandate r e q u i r e m e n t s t o be p o s i t i v e l y a d v e r s a r i a l , and t o encourage c o n s t r u c t i v e d e bate. 5. At t h e same t i m e , an e f f e c t i v e p r o c e s s must c o n t a i n a d e c i s i o n p o i n t , where t h e d i s p u t e i s e f f e c t i v e l y r e s o l v e d , at l e a s t f o r the moment. Without a ti m e frame f o r a d e c i s i o n , p a r t i c i p a n t s may f i n d i t e a s i e r t o d e l a y than make a d e c i s i o n . 6. However, p r o v i s i o n f o r p e r i o d i c r e a s s e s s m e n t of a program or problem must be made. For major p r o j e c t s , such as m o n i t o r i n g programs, t h i s might i n c l u d e r e g u l a r f i v e - y e a r r e a s s e s s m e n t s of the r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s b e i n g a d d r e s s e d , of t h e methods b e i n g used, and of t h e b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of the i n f o r m a t i o n c r e a t e d t o d a t e . L e s s e r p r o j e c t s might be s u b j e c t t o spot r e v i e w on a random b a s i s . 7. Such r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s w i l l i n v o l v e e lements of n e g o t i a t i o n . These s h o u l d be e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e d , and t h e l a r g e l i t e r a t u r e on n e g o t i a t i o n tapped t o improve t h i s element of the r e v i e w p r o c e s s . 8. A t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be p a i d t o t h e p e r s o n a l q u a l i t i e s of the c o o r d i n a t o r s of such r e v i e w c o m m i t t e e s — they i n f a c t o p e r a t e as m e d i a t o r s , and r e q u i r e c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r p e r s o n a l and communication s k i l l s . 9. Such peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s must be a b l e t o t r a n s l a t e , or encourage the t r a n s l a t i o n o f , s c i e n t i f i c e v i d e n c e i n t o a form a v a i l a b l e t o n o n - s c i e n t i s t s . I f the r e s u l t s of s t u d i e s and of t h e i r r e v i e w s cannot be communicated t o t h e p u b l i c and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , s c i e n t i f i c knowledge remains e f f e c t i v e l y p r i v a t e knowledge. 10. I n f o r m a l r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s s h o u l d be enc o u r a g e d , t h r o u g h t h e advance ( 1 5 7 ) c i r c u l a t i o n of r e p o r t s , or t h r o u g h c o n f e r e n c e s , or d u r i n g ad hoc meetings of s c i e n t i s t s who a r e p a r t y t o a d i s p u t e . T h i s i s a s h a r e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of a l l s c i e n t i s t s w o r k i n g on m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d problems. The p a r t i c u l a r forum i n which t h e s e elements a r e implemented w i l l depend on t h e n a t u r e of t h e p r o b l e m , t h e a v a i l a b l e i n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s , and the p e r s o n a l i t i e s of t h e i n v o l v e d s c i e n t i s t s . T a b l e 7.1 i d e n t i f i e s t h e s c i e n t i f i c r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s employed at Utah, and c o n t r a s t s them w i t h p r o c e s s e s which i n c o r p o r a t e the t e n e l e m e n t s noted above. I have o r g a n i z e d t h e s e p r o c e s s e s under t h e h e a d i n g s of s c o p i n g , r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , and r e s e a r c h e v a l u a t i o n . I would not suggest t h a t t h e p r o c e s s e s I propose a r e n e c e s s a r i l y t h e c o r r e c t ones t o a p p l y i n t h i s c a s e , nor t h a t a l l p o s s i b l e v a r i a t i o n s of t h e s e p r o c e s s e s have been c o n s i d e r e d . They do p r o v i d e e x e m p l i f i c a t i o n of t h e p o i n t s t h a t I have r a i s e d above, however. I t s h o u l d be r e i t e r a t e d t h a t such p r o c e s s e s a r e o n l y s i g n p o s t s , and t h a t t h e i r s u c c e s s f u l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n r e l i e s on t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of t h e i n d i v i d u a l s who o p e r a t e w i t h i n them. T a b l e , 7 . 1 . E x a m p l e s o f S c i e n t i f i c R e v i e w P r o c e s s e s i n t h e U t a h M i n e s C a s e . STAGE O B J E C T I V E THE PROCESS AT UTAH A RECOMMENDED PROCESS SCOPING ( S o c i a l ) ( S c i e n -t i f i c ) — d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l a t t r i b u t e s t h a t . . were o f s o c i a l v a l u e , and o f t h e s c i e n t i f i c i n f o r -m a t i o n r e q u i r e d t o a n s w e r u n c e r -t a i n t i e s r e g a r d -i n g t h e m . — d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f a s e t o f s c i e n t i -f i c a l l y r e s e a r c h -a b l e q u e s t i o n s t h a t a d d r e s s t h e s o c i a l l y v a l u a b l e e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n -c e r n s d e t e r m i n e d t h r o u g h s o c i a l s c o p i n g . a) w i t h i n g o v e r n m e n t .. a g e n c i e s w i t h o u t c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h r e l e v a n t g r o u p s . b) a t a p u b l i c m e e t i n g h e l d a t t h e e n d o f t h e r e v i e w p r o c e s s , w h i c h u s e d a l e g a l i s t i c a n d a d v e r s a r i a l f o r m a t . — p r e l i m i n a r i l y d o n e w i t h i n t h e g o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s , b u t t h e n d e v e l o p e d a f t e r t h e p e r m i t was a p p r o v e d by t h e UBC IA w i t h o u t c o n s u l t a t i o n . — b e g i n n i n g a t t h e e a r l i e s t p e r i o d , a n d r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e r a n g e o f i n t e r e s t g r o u p s i n v o l v e d , t h e r e may h a v e b e e n : a. s e t o f i n f o r m a l h e a r i n g s ; a s e r i e s o f w o r k s h o p s w h i c h i n i t i a t e d d i s c u s s i o n s b e t w e e n i n t e r e s t g r o u p s a n d g o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s ; o r an a d v i s o r y p a n e l . - - b a s e d o n t h e i n i t i a l c o n s u l -t a t i o n s w i t h t h e s o c i a l s c o p i n g g r o u p : a) h o l d an i n i t i a l w o r k s h o p t o . a s s e s s t h e p r o s p e c t s o f s c i e n t -i s t s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o p r o v i d i n g t h e r e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n , a n d d e v e l o p a r a n g e o f r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s ( i n c l u d i n g c o s t e s t i m a t e s ) w h i c h m i g h t be u s e d t o g e n e r a t e t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , d r a w i n g w i d e l y f r o m g o v e r n m e n t , i n d u s t r y a n d u n i v e r s i t i e s f o r t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s . b) r e v i e w t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s w i t h t h e s o c i a l s c o p i n g g r o u p a n d j o i n t l y p r o d u c e a s e t o f r e s e a r c h r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s f o r d e c i s i o n - ... m a k e r s c o n s i d e r a t i o n . c ) c i r c u l a t e t h e s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s w i t h i n g o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s , i n d u s t r y a n d u n i v e r s i t i e s f o r r e v i e w . t a b l e 7.1. (Continued). STAGE OBJECTIVE THE PROCESS AT UTAH A RECOMMENDED PROCESS RESEARCH —-design of pre-DESIGN and post-operation-a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s and monitoring. — d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the methodological r i g o r which w i l l be accepatable to a l l p a r t i e s . — d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the s p e c i f i c s t u d i e s to be i n c l u d e d i n i n v e s -t i g a t i o n s and mon-i t o r i n g . a) p r e - p e r m i t t i n g i n v e s t s i g a t i o n s designed by i n d u s t r y c o n s u l t a n t s without review by gov-ernment agency or other groups. b) p r e - o p e r a t i o n a l mon-i t o r i n g designed under severe time c o n s t r a i n t s without review. c) monitoring program and government agency r e s e a r c h designed w i t h -out i n t e g r a t i o n or r e -c i p r o c a l review between the agencies and the UBC IA. — f o r both short-term i n v e s t i -g a t i o n s and m o n i t o r i n g d e s i g n : a) h o l d a p r e l i m i n a r y workshop t o t r a n s l a t e r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g i e s i n t o r e s e a r c h a b l e q u e s t i o n s and to encourage a wide s e t of a l t -e r n a t i v e s t u d i e s t h a t might answer them. b) develop d e t a i l e d r e s e a r c h designs w i t h i n i n d u s t r y ' s , government agencies', and u n i v -e r s i t i e s ' r e s p e c t i v e areas of r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . c) reconvene workshop to e v a l u a t e the completeness and mutual a c c e p t a b i l i t y of each group's r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s , and to propose m o d i f i c a t i o n s as a p p r o p r i a t e . d) submit d r a f t s of r e s e a r c h d e s i g n f o r c i r c u l a t i o n and com-ment w i t h i n each group, and p o s s i b l y f o r independent review by a review panel of s c i e n t i s t s and other r e l e v a n t p a r t i e s . e.) f i n a l i z e r e s e a r c h design f o r decision-makers c o n s i d e r a t i o n . ''Sie 7.1. (Continued) . STAGE OBJECTIVE THE PROCESS AT UTAH A RECOMMENDED PROCESS RESEARCH EVALUA-:": TION — e v a l u a t i o n of the a)within government a gen-results of invest-gations and monit-. oring. —recommendations for changes i n strategy or proced-ures of monitoring. cies the UBC IA program was cr i t i q u e d .without consultation with the UBC IA and without for-warding comments to ... - u them for the i r response. b).a_.."blue ribbon" com-mittee was established to resolve the dispute between EPS and the UBC IA authoritatively, without bringing, the .._ parties together to attempt j o i n t resolu-t i o n . a) annual meetings of industry, government agency, and univer-s i t y s c i e n t i s t s .who are regular-ly involved, and a number of dis i n t e r e s t e d s c i e n t i s t s to review the monitoring program's annual reports, and to revise procedures as appropriate. b) periodic review by an indep-endent panel set up to reassess monitoring programs based on: th e i r contribution to knowledge over the l a s t assessment period, and t h e i r l i k e l y contribution over the upcoming period; the cost of the monitoring program's components; and the current p r i o r i t y attached to the type of development being monitored. This panel should provide long-term recommendations regarding the monitoring programs continu-ance, truncation, or expansion. c) refereed journal publication of the re s u l t s of research con-ducted in conjunction with the monitoring program. ( 1 6 1 ) E. F u r t h e r R e s e a r c h . Very l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n has been g i v e n t o a range of r e s e a r c h problems t h a t a r e c e n t r a l t o s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e r e s o l u t i o n . Communication between s c i e n t i s t s i n v o l v e d i n t r a n s d i s c i p l i n a r y problems i s one such a r e a ; t h e ways i n which s c i e n t i f i c c r e d i b i l i t y i s n e g o t i a t e d i s a n o t h e r . N e i t h e r of t h e s e r e s e a r c h a r e a s can be ad d r e s s e d by r e v i e w of e x i s t i n g documents, nor can they be s t u d i e d by a f t e r - t h e - f a c t i n t e r v i e w s . P a r t i c i p a n t o b s e r v a t i o n i s r e q u i r e d , and t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o pursue t h i s s o r t of r e s e a r c h w i t h s c i e n t i s t s a r e l i m i t e d . S o c i o l o g i s t s of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge have not ad d r e s s e d m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s c i e n c e at a l l — t h i s has t o date been l e f t t o p o l i c y a n a l y s t s and t o s c i e n t i s t s ' r e f l e c t i o n s on t h e i r own i n v o l v e m e n t . The l a c k of t h i s r e s e a r c h f o c u s i s r e g r e t a b l e . T h i s t h e s i s has, I b e l i e v e , i n d i c a t e d t h e need f o r such r e s e a r c h . I t has a l s o h i g h l i g h t e d the wide range of causes of s c i e n t i f i c d i s p u t e s and t h e r a t h e r l i m i t e d recommendations t h a t have emerged i n t h e impact assessment and management l i t e r a t u r e f o r how th e y might be d e a l t w i t h . Though t h e p a r t i c u l a r forums which a r e a p p r o p r i a t e f o r peer r e v i e w a r e " s i t e - s p e c i f i c " , a l l peer r e v i e w p r o c e s s e s r e q u i r e some common elements i f they a r e t o m a i n t a i n the s c i e n t i f i c e n t e r p r i s e i n m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d s i t u a t i o n s . I have i n d i c a t e d what t h e s e e lements a r e . F i n a l l y , t he t h e s i s has i n d i c a t e d t h e i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s t h a t o f t e n accompany s c i e n c e and s c i e n t i s t s i n t o a p p l i e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n s . The s e a r c h f o r a u t h o r i t a t i v e o b j e c t i v i t y i s m i s p l a c e d . For the moment, at l e a s t , , I l e a v e t h e s e i s s u e s . But f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h r e m a i n s t o be done. REFERENCES B a r n e s , B a r r y . 1983. "On the C o n v e n t i o n a l C h a r a c t e r of Knowledge and C o g n i t i o n " , i n Karen K n o r r - C e t i n a and M i c h a e l Mulkay, e d s . , S c i e n c e Observed, London, Sage. 1977. I n t e r e s t s and t h e Growth of Knowledge, London, R o u t l e d g e . B a r t o n , B a r r y J . , R.T. F r a n s o n , and A.R. Thompson. 1984. A C o n t r a c t Model f o r P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l , Westwater Research C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C olumbia. Bascom, W i l l a r d . 1981. "The N o n - T o x i c i t y of M e t a l s i n the Sea", Water S c i e n c e s Technology, 14s 41-52. B.C. R e s e a r c h . 1970. The D i s p o s a l of M i n i n g and H i l l i n g Wastes w i t h P a r t i c u l a r R e f e r e n c e  to Underwater D i s p o s a l , Department of Lands, F o r e s t s , and Water R e s o u r c e s , Government of B r i t i s h C olumbia. B e a n l a n d s , G.E., and P.N. D u i n k e r . 1983. 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