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The fertility behaviour of Muslims of Sri Lanka Hasbullah, Shahul Hameed 1984

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THE FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR OF MUSLIMS OF SRI LANKA By SHAHUL HAMEED.HASBULLAH B.A. (Hons.), U n i v e r s i t y of Peradeniya, S r i Lanka, 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department of Geography We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the r e q u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1984 (c) Shahul Hameed Hasbullah , 1984 MASTER OF ARTS In In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by h i s or her representatives. I t i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of -g-va "T O O /^Y» Vv^ The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date - ) o - , DE-6 (.3/81) i i ABSTRACT Although f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s comparatively higher among Muslims than other r e l i g i o u s groups i n S r i Lanka, the reason fo r t h i s high f e r t i l i t y r a t e has, not been f u l l y i n v e s t i g a t e d . T h i s study attempts to determine what f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e Muslim f e r t i l i t y u s i ng i n d i v i d u a l household data. The data are d e r i v e d from a systematic i n t e r v i e w of 323 household heads in eleven Muslim s e t t l e m e n t s in S r i Lanka i n 1981. Using c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n and path a n a l y s i s , the study ..found that socio-economic and demographic f a c t o r s such as female l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , female age at marriage, socio-economic s t a t u s , and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y are c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d with the f e r t i l i t y v a r i a t i o n of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n . A woman with l i t t l e e d ucation i s more l i k e l y to marry e a r l y , i s engaged i n household a c t i v i t i e s , and may l o s e many c h i l d r e n , a l l of which r e s u l t s i n high f e r t i l i t y . The path a n a l y s i s f u r t h e r suggests that low female s c h o o l i n g d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y through age at marriage "causes" high f e r t i l i t y of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n . The female l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g i s found to be low among Muslims; t h e r e f o r e f e r t i l i t y i s comparatively h i g h e r . However, the youn-ger women have shown comparatively lower f e r t i l i t y due to recent e d u c a t i o n a l changes. The low a s p i r a t i o n l e v e l f o r education among t h i s group i s mainly due to the b i t t e r experience of the c o l o n i a l educa-t i o n system which l a s t e d u n t i l 1948 and the comparative lac k of e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n the prese n t . I n c r e a s i n g female education and the improving socio-economic s t a t u s of the female i i i p o p u l a t i o n may reduce the present high f e r t i l i t y l e v e l of t h i s community in the f u t u r e . i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page A b s t r a c t ' i i - i i i T a ble of Contents i v - v i i L i s t of Tables v i i i - x i i L i s t of F i g u r e s x i i i - x i v Acknowledgements xv Chapter One: I n t r o d u c t i o n 1- 9 1.1 Socio-Economic and H i s t o r i c a l Background 2- 9 Chapter Two: Theories of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e and a 10- 33 Conceptual Framework f o r the Study of F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of the Muslims of S r i Lanka 2.1 A Review of T h e o r i e s of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e 10- 20 2.1.1 Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian 11- 12 P e r s p e c t i v e s 2.1.2 The Theory of Demographic 12- 17 T r a n s i t i o n 2.1.3 Recent Approaches to F e r t i l i t y 17- 20 D e c l i n e 2.2 A Conceptual Framework f o r the F e r t i l i t y 20- 33 Behaviour of the Muslims of S r i Lanka 2.2.1 R e l i g i o n and F e r t i l i t y 23- 26 2.2.2 Female Status and F e r t i l i t y 26- 29 2.2.3 Socio-Economic S t a t u s , Family 29- 30 Form and F e r t i l i t y 2.2.4 Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y 30- 31 and F e r t i l i t y 2.2.5 An A n a l y t i c a l Framework f o r 31- 33 the F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Muslims of S r i Lanka Chapter Three: The Recent F e r t i l i t y Trends i n 34- 56 S r i Lanka and of S r i Lankan Muslims 3.1 Recent F e r t i l i t y Trends i n S r i Lanka 34- 41 3.1.1 P o p u l a t i o n Growth 34- 35 3.1.2 Recent F e r t i l i t y Trends i n 35- 38 S r i Lanka 3.1.3 The Determinants of F e r t i l i t y 39- 41 D e c l i n e 3.2 F e r t i l i t y Trends Among Muslims 41- 56 3.2.1 Muslim P o p u l a t i o n Growth 42- 44 3.2.2 F e r t i l i t y Trends Among Muslims 44- 50 3.2.3 Determinants of Muslim F e r t i l i t y 50- 56 Chapter Four: Methodology 57- 64 Chapter F i v e : Study Area 65- 86 5.1 Muslim Settlement and t h e i r R e l i g i o - 65- 69 C u l t u r a l Enviroment 5.2 Surveyed Muslim Settlements 69- 72 5.3 Surveyed Households 72- 78 5.3.1 Head of Household 73- 75 5.3.2 Family Members 75- 76 5.3.3 Socio-Economic Status 76- 78 5.4 The Determinants of F e r t i l i t y 78- 83 V I 5.5 V a r i a b l e s and t h e i r Measurements 83- 86 Chapter S i x : V a r i a t i o n in F e r t i l i t y by Geographic 87-106 and Socio-Economic F a c t o r s 6.1 V a r i a t i o n i n Geographic L o c a t i o n s 87- 91 6.2 Education and F e r t i l i t y 91- 94 6.3 Female Age at Marriage and F e r t i l i t y 94- 96 6.4 Mean B i r t h I n t e r v a l and F e r t i l i t y 96-100 6.5 C h i l d M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y 100-102 6.6 The F i n d i n g s from Pearson and P a r t i a l 102-104 C o r r e l a t i o n 6.7 The Summary of F i n d i n g s 104-106 Chapter Seven: M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s of F e r t i l i t y 107-121 7.1 A P r e d i c t i v e Model of F e r t i l i t y 113-114 7.2 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Women Aged 49 114-118 Years and Above 7.3 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Women Aged 48 118-121 Years and Below 7.4 Summary 121 Chapter E i g h t : C o n c l u s i o n 122-127 8.1 General C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 122-123 8.2 Major F i n d i n g s 123-124 8.3 F i n d i n g s from M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s 125-127 B i b l i o g r a p h y 128-137 Appendix 1: Muslim Settlements i n S r i Lanka by 138-144 Pro v i n c e and D i s t r i c t Appendix 2: Q u e s t i o n a i r e : F e r t i l i t y Survey -- 145-152 Muslims of S r i Lanka v i i Appendix 3: S e l e c t e d Socio-Economic C h a r a c t e r - 153-155 i s t i c s of Eleven Surveyed Muslim Settlements Appendix 4: S p e c i f i c Forms in which V a r i a b l e s 156 are Coded and Analysed in the Path A n a l y s i s v i i i LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Table 3.7 Table 3.8 Table 3.9 Table 3.10 The L e v e l of Education by E t h i n c Groups F e r t i l i t y I n d i c a t o r s ( S r i Lanka) 1953-1974 Percentage of Women C u r r e n t l y M a r r i e d i n 1953, 1971 and 1981 Determinants of F e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka Po p u l a t i o n Growth i n S r i Lanka: Muslim Growth i n P e r s p e c t i v e Percentage Change i n P o p u l a t i o n by R e l i g i o u s and E t h n i c Groups, 1911-1981 Crude B i r t h Rates and Child-women R a t i o by E t h n i c Groups 1946-1977 Percentage of Change Between 1960 /65 and 1970/75 in A g e - s p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y Rates by E t h n i c i t y and R e l i g i o n Five-Year Average Crude Death Rates, 1911-1975 Infant M o r t a l i t y by E t h n i c Groups, 1910-1964 Percentage of Female L e v e l of Schooling by E t h n i c Gruops Page 8 36 39 42 43 47 48 50 52 53 54 ix Table 3.11 Table 4.1 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever-Married Women Aged 45-49 by Socio-Economic Status and E t h n i c Groups S e l e c t e d Sample Muslim Settlements Along with other Background Information Number of Surveyed Households and Surveyed P o p u l a t i o n A c c o r d i n g to the Settlements Socio-Economic Status of the Surveyed Households The Number of T o t a l Pregnancies of Surveyed P o p u l a t i o n The Wife's L e v e l of S c h o o l i n g The Wife's Workforce P a r t i c i p a t i o n Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y V a r i a b l e s and Measurements Used i n the A n a l y s i s Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever-M a r r i e d Women by Women's Age and Geographical L o c a t i o n Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever-married Women by Women's Age at Marriage, L e v e l of S c h o o l i n g , Socio-economic Status and Geog r a p h i c a l Locat ion 56 61 73 79 79 81 84 84 85 89 89- 90 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 6.6 Table 6.7 Table 6.8 Table 6.9 Table 6.10 Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 90 Mar r i e d Women by Wife's L e v e l of Schoo l i n g and S u b - c u l t u r a l Regions Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 92 married Women by Women's Present Age, Age at Marriage, and L e v e l of Schoo l i n g Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 93 married Women by S o c i a l Group and L e v e l of Education Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h per Ever- 94 married Women by Wife's Workforce P a r t i c i p a t i o n , Husband's Occupation and L e v e l of Sc h o o l i n g Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h per Ever- 95 married Women by Women's Present Age, Mean B i r t h I n t e r v a l and Age at Marr iage Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 97 married Women by Socio-Economic Status and Age at Marriage Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 97 married Women by Women's Present Age and Mean B i r t h I n t e r v a l Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 98 married Women by Background V a r i a b l e s and Mean B i r t h I n t e r v a l x i Table 6.11 Table 6.12 Table 6.13 Table 6.14 Table 6.15 Table 6.16 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 100 married Women by Percentage of Male B i r t h s , C h i l d M o r t a l i t y , and Mean B i r t h I n t e r v a l Mean Number of L i v e B i r t h s per Ever- 101 married Women by Present Age, Age at Marriage, S o c i a l Status and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y The R e l a t i o n s h i p Between S e l e c t e d 103 Background V a r i a b l e s and Number of L i v e B i r t h s The R e l a t i o n s h i p Between S e l e c t e d 103-104 Background V a r i a b l e s and Number of L i v e B i r t h s When C o n t r o l l e d f o r Women's Present Age Mean Number of B i r t h s per Ever- 104 married Surveyed (Women) Po p u l a t i o n S p e c i f i c I n f l u e n c e of C e r t a i n 106 V a r i a b l e s on F e r t i l i t y of Muslims of S r i Lanka Path C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r Model P r e d i c t i n g 112 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Muslim Women i n S r i Lanka (323 cases) Path C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r Model P r e d i c t i n g 117 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Muslim Women-49 Years and Above (67 cases) x i i Table 7.3 Path C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r Model P r e d i c t i n g 120 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Muslim Women-48 Years and Below (256 cases) x i i i LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e 1.1 F i g u r e 2.1 F i g u r e 3.1 F i g u r e 3.2 F i g u r e 3.3 F i g u r e 3.4 F i g u r e 3.5 F i g u r e 4.1 F i g u r e 4.2 F i g u r e 5.1 F i g u r e 5.2 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Muslim Populat ion Schematic Diagram I n d i c a t i n g the R e l a t i o n s h i p of S e l e c t e d V a r i a b l e s i n F e r t i l i t y Behaviour A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y Rates-1953, 1963, 1971 and 1974 A g e - S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates- 1953, 1963, 1971 and 1 975 Trends i n P o p u l a t i o n by R e l i -gious Groups Trends i n Muslim P o p u l a t i o n Trends i n B i r t h and Death Rates (Muslims)- 1900-1981 The L o c a t i o n of Muslim S e t t l e -ments Settlements Surveyed C u l t u r a l Regionalism and Muslim D i s t r i b u t i o n Socio-Economic and C u l t u r a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the Surveyed Muslim Settlements Page 3 32 37 38 45 46 51 59 60 67 71 x i v Path Diagram of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born and Other Socio-Economic and Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Path Diagram of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born and Socio-Economic and Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (Ever-Married Women)- 1981 Path Diagram of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born and Socio-Economic and Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (Ever-Married Women Aged 49 and Above)- 1981 Path Diagram of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born and Socio-Economic and Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (Ever-Married Women Aged 48 and Below)- 1981 XV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would l i k e to thank my s u p e r v i s o r , P r o f e s s o r J . S. Duncan and my a d v i s o r s , P r o f e s s o r s B. M. Morrison (Asian Stu-d i e s ) , N. E. Waxier (Health Care and Epidomology), and T. G. McGee (Geography) for t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e and encouragement dur i n g the p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s . I would a l s o l i k e to acknow-ledge the h e l p of the members of the Muslim M a j l i s of the U n i v e r s i t y of P e r i d e n i y a (1980/1981), Messers. Zanheer, Munou-ver, Mohamed A l i , Hameed, Majeed, Ahamedlebbi, Yakoob, L a t h i f f , and Noufal and Ms Azeema and Naleefa f o r t h e i r h e l p and co-o p e r a t i o n d u r i n g the f i e l d survey. I am a l s o indebted to Mr. Rajesh Chandra f o r h i s h e l p f u l d i s c u s s i o n s and suggestions. I would f u r t h e r l i k e to acknowledge the h e l p p r o v i d e d by Mr. Naoki Kanai, Mrs. V i v i a n Howard, Dharma Chandra, and Ms Sandy Pan. F i n a l l y , I would l i k e to thank numerous f r i e n d s i n S r i Lanka and at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia f o r t h e i r h e l p and encouragement during the p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s . 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION T h i s study i s an a n a l y s i s of the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of S r i Lankan Muslims, whose f e r t i l i t y r a t e s are higher than the other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups i n S r i Lanka. I t uses s y s t e -matic i n t e r v i e w s of 323 household heads i n eleven Muslim s e t -tlements i n S r i Lanka. The study focuses a t t e n t i o n on the socio-economic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which i n f l u e n c e s d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y t h e i r f e r t i l i t y . T h i s study has the f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s : (1) To study the f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n by s o c i o -economic and g e o g r a p h i c a l f a c t o r s ; (2) To i d e n t i f y the determi-nants of f e r t i l i t y ; and (3) To f i n d out which combination of f a c t o r s i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r hig h f e r t i l i t y among S r i Lankan Muslims. T h i s t h e s i s i s composed of e i g h t c h a p t e r s . Chapter 1 pr o v i d e s a h i s t o r i c a l and socio-economic background of S r i Lankan Muslims. The l i t e r a t u r e on f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i s review-ed i n Chapter 2, which a l s o proposes a t e n t a t i v e a n a l y t i c a l model f o r the study. Chapter 3 pr e s e n t s the trends of recent f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka i n general and of Muslims i n S r i Lanka i n p a r t i c u l a r u s ing a v a i l a b l e n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s . Chap-t e r 4 p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n about the sampling d e s i g n , i n t e r v i e -wing, and the o r g a n i z a t i o n and the a n a l y s i s of the c o l l e c t e d data. Chapter 5 p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n on socio-economic and 2 demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s chapter provides a d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n of the measurements of s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s which are used i n the present study. Chapter 6 presents the a n a l y s i s of the v a r i a t i o n in Muslim f e r t i l i t y by g e o g r a p h i c a l and socio-economic f a c t o r s and summarizes the major f i n d i n g s of c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n and c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s e s . The f i n d i n g s of the path a n a l y s i s are reported i n Chapter 7 where the determinants of f e r t i l i t y are i d e n t i f i e d . F i n a l l y Chapter 8 i n t e g r a t e s a l l the f i n d i n g s of the p r e v i o u s chapters and presents the c o n c l u s i o n of the present study. 1.1 Socio-Economic and H i s t o r i c a l Background Muslims are the f o l l o w e r s of the Islamic f a i t h . Islam means s u r r e n d e r i n g to God's w i l l . The p r o f e s s i o n of the f a i t h (Shahada) of Islam i s : "there i s no god but god and Mohammed (peace upon him) i s the l a s t prophet (Encyclopaedia B r i t a n i c a , 1973: 666-7). The S r i Lankan Muslims belong to the Sunni d i v i -s i o n of Islam. Muslims are the second l a r g e s t m i n o r i t y group i n S r i Lanka, and a c c o r d i n g to the 1981 census, c o n s t i t u t e 7.6 percent of the t o t a l S r i Lankan p o p u l a t i o n . F i g u r e 1 shows the geograp-h i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n . They are t h i n l y spread throughout the i s l a n d and are to be found e q u a l l y in areas where the m a j o r i t y community, the S i n h a l e s e , are s e t t l e d as w e l l where the p r i n c i p a l m i n o r i t y community, the Tamils are c o n c e n t r a t e d . The m a j o r i t y of the Muslims in both areas speak T a m i l . The g e o g r a p h i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n 3 SOURCE: Population Census, 1981. 4 i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e i r economic a c t i v i t i e s as w e l l . The m a j o r i t y of the Muslims in the dry zone p r o v i n c e s ( E a s t e r n , Northern, and North C e n t r a l ) are mainly engaged i n r i c e c u l t i v a t i o n . The economic a c t i v i t i e s of the Muslims in the r e s t of the country vary from saleswork to small and l a r g e s c a l e business a c t i v i -t i e s . A ccording to the World F e r t i l i t y Survey (1975), one of the s i n g l e l a r g e s t economic a c t i v i t i e s of the Muslims i s s a l e s -work which comprise n e a r l y 26 percent of the t o t a l workforce. Saleswork r e f e r s to work as a labourer i n l a r g e and small s c a l e p r i v a t e business f i r m s . E c o n o m i c a l l y , salesworkers are poor and dependent on u n r e l i a b l e employment. The m a j o r i t y of them l i v e i n urban and semi-urban s e t t l e m e n t s . A very small percentage of Muslims are engaged in medium and l a r g e s c a l e business a c t i v i t y and they are wealthy urban d w e l l e r s . E t h n i c a l l y , S r i Lankan Muslims are d i v i d e d i n t o three groups : the S r i Lankan Moors, the Indian Moors and the Malays. The S r i Lankan Moors c o n s t i t u t e n e a r l y 93 percent of the t o t a l Muslim p o p u l a t i o n . They are the decendants of long e s t a b l i s h e d Muslim migrants from the Arabian p e n i n s u l a r . The term "Moor" was mistakenly given to the Muslims by the Portuguese (Ragha-wan, 1964 : 1 9 ) ; however, the term has assumed a t r a d i t i o n a l s i g n i f i c a n c e from i t s long usage. The Indian Moors are r e l a t i -v e l y recent migrants from South I n d i a who came mainly as e s t a t e l a b o u r e r s and urban entrepreneurs d u r i n g the l a t e n i n e t e e n t h and the e a r l y twentieth c e n t u r y . They c o n s t i t u t e n e a r l y 3 percent of the t o t a l Muslim p o p u l a t i o n . The Malays, who com-p r i s e n e a r l y 4 percent of the t o t a l Muslin p o p u l a t i o n , t r a c e 5 t h e i r a n c e s t r y to South East A s i a , p a r t i c u l a r l y , Java, Sumatra and Malacca (Hussainmia, 1982). They s e t t l e d i n the country d u r i n g the p e r i o d of Dutch r u l e around the ei g t h e e n t h century. Very l i t t l e i s known about the h i s t o r y of Muslims ( S r i Lankan Moors) because of the lack of re s e a r c h i n t h i s area (Mauroof, 1974 and Samaraweera, 1978). According to some sour-ces (Johnstones, 1876), Muslims are the decendants of the Arab t r a d e r s who e s t a b l i s h e d e i g h t s e t t l e m e n t s along the west coast of S r i Lanka at the beginning of the e i g h t e e n t h century. During the e a r l y years, the Muslims numbered a few thousand (Gunawar-dena, 1959-60 :83) and f o r obvious reasons, they were predomi-na n t l y males (Arasaratnam, 1964 :119). They married among the l o c a l people — both the S i n h a l e s e and the Tamils. The p r e v a l -ence of the Tamil language among Muslims i s due to the supposed importance of Tamil i n South-east Asian trade between' the twelvth and f o u r t e e n t h c e n t u r i e s and the ex t e n s i v e p r a c t i c e of i n t e r - m a r r i a g e that took p l a c e with Tamil converts ( A r a s a r a t -nam, 1964 :120-21). An a l t e r n a t i v e view t r a c e s the immediate a n c e s t r y of S r i Lankan Muslims to e a r l i e r Arab settlement i n Tamil speaking Kayalpattanam i n South India (Ramanathan, 1887). The Muslims i n t e g r a t e d themselves with the l o c a l people and p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the socio-economic and p o l i t i c a l develop-ment of the country. They conducted e x t e r n a l trade and thereby brought S r i Lanka c l o s e r to the known world. They a l s o extended i n t e r n a l trade and developed t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and communication between t r a d i n g c e n t r e s . They pr o v i d e d armed s e c u r i t y to the Si n h a l e s e king and p r o t e c t e d the s o v e r e i g n t y of the country 6 against the foreign aggressors. (Arasartnam, 1964 :119). There is no evidence of p o l i t i c a l domination by Muslims of the non-Muslim native people in S r i Lanka (Mauroof, 1974 :68). Colonial rule under the Portuguese, the Dutch, and the B r i t i s h , for nearly 450 years had a great impact both socio-economically and r e l i g i o u s l y of the Muslim population. The Portuguese viewed the Muslims as their r e l i g i o u s and economic enemies and therefore r e s t r i c t e d their a c t i v i t i e s in both of these realms. These events led to a large Muslim migration (beginning of 17th century) to the Central highlands and East coast which at that time were controlled by the Kandyan king. The Muslims who settled in the Kandyan areas soon extended their peddling trade a l l over the Kandyan kingdom and assisted the king in developing his trade through the ports that were s t i l l l e f t in his hand. Others who chose to s e t t l e in the east coast of the island became farmers and established a rural t r a d i t i o n (Arasaratnam, 1964 : 1 2 2 ) . During the Dutch and the B r i t i s h periods (1658-1948), the r e l i g i o u s and c u l t u r a l i d e n t i t i e s of the Muslims were further threatened. In the nineteenth century,the Muslims l i k e other r e l i g i o u s groups, too faced the challenge of Protestant C h r i s t i a n i t y , but resisted completely, a l b e i t at the expense of s o c i a l and economic advancement (De S i l v a , 1974 :101). English education was a primary vehicle for conversion to Protestanism under B r i t i s h rule (Samaraweera, 1978 :470) because education was largely Christian in content (De S i l v a , 1974 :101). English education was also an essential prerequiste 7 for entry i n t o h i g h l y valued and p r e s t i g i o u s employment. The Muslims, u n l i k e other r e l i g i o u s groups, d i d not take advantage of the new e d u c a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e e s t a b l i s h e d by the c o l o n i a l government and the m i s s i o n a r i e s even though t h i s meant s a c r i f i -c i n g m a t e r i a l b e n e f i t s that e n g l i s h education brought (De S i l -va, 1974 :101; Samaraweera, 1978 :470). Instead, the Muslims f u l f i l l e d t h e i r e s s e n t i a l e d u c a t i o n a l needs i n the Madrasas, the t r a d i t i o n a l Muslim e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n , which provided only rudimentary i n s t r u c t i o n (Azeez, 1971). As a r e s u l t , they became one of the l e a s t e d u c a t i o n a l l y advanced group i n the country. The Buddhists and the Hindus saw the need to c r e a t e t h e i r own e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s which would p r o v i d e modern education not only to counter C h r i s t i a n m i s s i o n a r y a c t i v i t i e s but a l s o to provide t h e i r people with access to the channels of m o b i l i t y opened up by the B r i t i s h . To some extent, the Bud-d h i s t s and the Hindus succeeded i n t h e i r e f f o r t s but Muslims were not as s u c c e s s f u l (Samaraweera, 1978 :476) and the m a j o r i -ty were l e f t without any development i n education. The s i t u a t i o n remained unchanged and the gap i n educa-t i o n and other s o c i a l development widened between Muslims and other r e l i g i o u s groups u n t i l around 1960 (Jennings, 1944; Tam-biah, 1955). However, some c o n c e s s i o n s i n education had been made in recent years to Muslims p a r t l y i n r e c o g n i t i o n of the f a c t that they t r a i l e d the other e t h n i c and r e l i g i o u s groups i n S r i Lanka i n educ a t i o n . In these e f f o r t s , Muslim schools had been upgraded and brought under a separate a d m i n i s t r a t i o n under 8 the M i n i s t r y of E d u c a t i o n . Muslims have a l s o been a t t r a c t e d to higher education with the p r o v i s i o n of employment as school t e a c h e r s . These and other attempts have, to some extent, im-proved t h e i r l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g and the impact c o u l d be seen i n improving socio-economic s t a t u s and demographic p a t t e r n s i n recent years. However, as Table 1.1 shows, Muslims are s t i l l w e l l behind i n education compared to other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups. TABLE 1.1 THE LEVEL OF EDUCATION BY ETHNIC GROUPS Et h n i c % of Pop. % of I l l i t e r a c y % of U n i v e r - % of Group (1981 ) (1981) s i t y Enrolment Medical (1981 ) Doctors (1973) S i n h a l e s e 74 11.6 79.0 57.4 S r i Lankan Tamil 12.6 13.4 17.1 36.7 S r i Lankan Moor 7.1 20.7 3.3 2.3 Indian Tamil 5.6 33. 1 - -Others 0.4 8.5 0.6 3.7 SOURCE: For p o p u l a t i o n , Census of P o p u l a t i o n and Housing, S r i Lanka, 1981; f o r i l l i t e r a c y , Census of P o p u l a t i o n and Housing (10 percent sample), S r i Lanka, 1981; f o r u n i v e r -s i t y enrolment, Annual Reports of U n i v e r s i t y Grants Commission, 1981; f o r d o c t o r s , Census of Doctors, 1973. The m a j o r i t y of Muslim c h i l d r e n , both males and females, leave school before reaching secondary s c h o o l s . The i l l i t e r a c y r a t e among Muslims i s s t i l l much higher than among many other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups. Very few Muslim males or females e n r o l l i n higher education (Table 1.1). The enrolment of Muslim 9 students i n sc i e n c e f a c u l t i e s i s even lower. The low l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n to and enrolment i n higher education among Muslims i s due to a lack of e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s i n Muslim s c h o o l s and to the general socio-economic c o n d i t i o n s of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n . Low e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l and r e l a t e d socio-economic under-development of Muslim s o c i e t y i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e i r f e r t i l i t y behaviour as w e l l . Many recent s t u d i e s have found that the hig h f e r t i l i t y r a t e of Muslims i s s t r o n g l y c o r r e l a t e d with low l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g (Fernando, 1982), high i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , low f e -male age at marriage (World F e r t i l i t y Survey, 1975) and low socio-economic s t a t u s (Hanna and Nadarajah 1975). T h i s study w i l l e xplore the f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s of Muslims and w i l l i d e n t i -fy which combination of f a c t o r s "causes' high f e r t i l i t y among the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n . 1 0 CHAPTER 2 THEORIES OF FERTILITY DECLINE AND A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE STUDY OF FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR OF THE MUSLIMS OF SRI LANKA The e x p l a n a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n both developed and developing c o u n t r i e s has undergone fundamental changes in recent decades. U n t i l very r e c e n t l y , the c o n v e n t i o n a l popula-t i o n t h e o r i e s were much simpler than those of today because the a v a i l a b l e f a c t s were few; as a r e s u l t , i t was p o s s i b l e to d e f i n e simple coherent t h e o r i e s to e x p l a i n the p o p u l a t i o n phe-nomenon. In recent years, however, new data on both the h i s t o -r i c a l demographic experience of the West and the recent f e r t i -l i t y trends i n the developing c o u n t r i e s have brought i n t o q u e s t i o n the c o n v e n t i o n a l t h e o r i e s . In p a r t i c u l a r , the t h e o r i e s have f a i l e d to e x p l a i n under which circumtances the f e r t i l i t y of a p o p u l a t i o n f a l l s from a high to a low l e v e l . In recent years, v a r i o u s d i s c i p l i n e s have responded to the new c h a l l e n g e to e x p l a i n f e r t i l i t y behaviour. However, so f a r no common ground has been reached by these attempts. The purpose of t h i s chapter i s , t h e r e f o r e , f i r s t to review the major t h e o r i e s of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e and second, to formulate an a n a l y t i c a l frame-work f o r the study of f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the Muslims of S r i Lanka. 2 . 1 A Review of Theories of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e The main t h e o r i e s of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n c l u d e Malthus and other h i s t o r i c a l t h i n k e r s , the theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n , and recent macro and micro approaches (Burch, 11 1980; S r i v a s t a v a , 1980; K e y f i t z , 1972). 2.1.1 Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian P e r s p e c t i v e s The Malthusian p e r s p e c t i v e d e r i v e s from Thomas Robert Malthus' essay on p o p u l a t i o n p u b l i s h e d in 1798 and i t s subse-quent e d i t i o n s over more than t h i r t y y e a r s . Malthus proposed that while a p o p u l a t i o n tends to inc r e a s e i n a geometric or ex p o n e n t i a l f a s h i o n , i t s s u b s i s t a n c e can at best i n c r e a s e i n an a r i t h e m e t i c f a s h i o n . A growing p o p u l a t i o n , sooner or l a t e r , w i l l exceed the c a p a c i t y of i t s resources to s u s t a i n i t (Mal-thus, 1798). Thus Malthus argued that f e r t i l i t y w i l l be checked by what he c a l l e d " moral r e s t r a i n t " - the postponement of marriage combined with " v i r t u o u s " behaviour on the part of unmarried women (Malthus, 1830:153). In e f f e c t , he proposed that f e r t i l i t y be lowered by reducing the number of a d u l t s of c h i l d b e a r i n g age l i v i n g i n sexual union. Low f e r t i l i t y caused by the reduced p r o p o r t i o n of married women can be c a l l e d "Mal-t h u s i a n low f e r t i l i t y " . On the other hand, neo-Malthusians have been arguing i n recent decades that low f e r t i l i t y can be a c h i -eved by modern b i r t h c o n t r o l methods ( E h r l i c h , 1971 and Hardin, 1968). M a l t h u s i a n and neo-Malthusian p e r s p e c t i v e s have been t e s t e d i n d i f f e r e n t circumtances (Coale, 1965; Kleinman, 1980). For example, i n 1965, Ansly J . Coale analysed the 19th century f e r t i l i t y behaviour of European c o u n t r i e s u sing s p e c i a l f e r t i -l i t y i n d i c e s . In h i s study, he d i d not f i n d any evidence of Malthusian f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Instead, he found that the reduc-1 2 t i o n i n the p r o p o r t i o n of marriages had v a r i e d from country to country and from time to time. In a d d i t i o n , the development of l a t e marriages and abstinence from marriages, Coale suggested, may have o r i g i n a t e d from the higher standard of l i v i n g and s p e c i a l prevalence of the "stem-family" i n 19th century Western Europe, Coale (1965: 15) concluded that s i n c e [ b i r t h c o n t r o l methods] have long been known in every s o c i e t y , the part they played i n f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n i m p l i e s the importance of changed a t t i -tudes or motives r a t h e r than the d i s c o v e r y of new d e v i c e s or techniques. d i s c o u n t i n g thus the s i g n i f i c a n c e of neo-Malthusian t h e o r i e s to e x p l a i n low f e r t i l i t y . Attempts to form an a l t e r n a t i v e to Malthusian and neo-Malthusian p e r s p e c t i v e s have r e s u l t e d i n the development of s e v e r a l prominent p o p u l a t i o n t h e o r i e s . Among them, the theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n i s one of the important attempts i n modern times to s y n t h e s i z e present, past and f u t u r e human f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . 2.1.2 The Theory of Demographic T r a n s i t i o n The theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n d e s c r i b e s the chan-ges that take p l a c e i n b i r t h and death r a t e s as a p o p u l a t i o n passes from t r a d i t i o n a l or pre-modern, s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s to an urbanized and i n d u s t r i a l i z e d modern s o c i e t y . The theory was based on two o b s e r v a t i o n s : f i r s t t h a t f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y are high i n t r a d i t i o n a l s o c i e t i e s and second that every modern s o c i e t y has passed from high to low r a t e s of f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y . In a d d i t i o n , the phenomenon of demog-raphic t r a n s i t i o n was thought to occur i n three stages: (1) a 1 3 balance stage of high p o t e n t i a l growth when b i r t h and death r a t e s are high; (2) a t r a n s i t i o n a l stage of r a p i d growth when the death r a t e i s low but the b i r t h r a t e continues at a high l e v e l ; and (3) a new balance stage when b i r t h and death r a t e s are low, with the p o t e n t i a l f o r a d e c l i n i n g p o p u l a t i o n (McNama-ra , 1982:146). About two hundred years of demographic experience of the West European c o u n t r i e s has r e s u l t e d i n t h i s three stage model of demographic t r a n s i t i o n . Thus, S t o l n i t z s t a t e d that " demog-raphic t r a n s i t i o n ranks among the most sweeping and best docu-mented h i s t o r i c a l trends of modern time" ( S t o l n i t z , 1964:31). Moreover, the theory a l s o s t r o n g l y suggests that the process which took p l a c e i n Europe w i l l a l s o take p l a c e i n developing c o u n t r i e s (Teillbaum, 1975:420). There have been many attempts (Trewartha, 1969; C l a r k , 1965 and othe r s ) i n recent decades to apply and prove the t r a n s i t i o n theory i n the developing coun-t r i e s where a sudden demographic change has occurred d u r i n g the l a s t t h i r t y y e a r s . 2.1.2.1. The Relevance of T r a n s i t i o n Theory f o r  West European C o u n t r i e s Recent r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s (Coale, 1973 and 1979; Walle and Knodel, 1977; Loschky and Wilcox, 1974) have r a i s e d s e r i -ous q u e s t i o n s regarding the v a l i d i t y of t r a n s i t i o n theory and are f o r c i n g a c r i t i c a l re-examination of the assumption on which the theory i s based and the conceptual approach to which i t has given r i s e . F i r s t of a l l , the recent o b s e r v a t i o n and a n a l y s i s of the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of 19th century Europe 1 4 where the t r a n s i t i o n a l theory based i t s u n i v e r s a l p r i n c i p l e of f e r t i l i t y behaviour has r a i s e d many fundamental que s t i o n s rega-r d i n g the v a l i d i t y of the theory. The f i n d i n g s of t h i s r e -examination of European h i s t o r i c a l f e r t i l i t y can be summarized i n t o three major c o n c l u s i o n s . F i r s t , c o n t r a r y to the t r a n s i t i o n theory, the new f i n -d ings i n d i c a t e that there was a wide v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s between regions and c o u n t r i e s of 19th century Europe. For example, f e r t i l i t y v a r i e d c o n s i d e r a b l y from p r o v i n -ce to p r o v i n c e and from country to country (Coale, 1973:62-63). In a d d i t i o n , f e r t i l i t y began to d e c l i n e p r i o r to or s i m u l t a -neously with the d e c l i n e i n m o r t a l i t y (Knodal, 1979). Secondly, the t i m i n g of the f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n was c o n f i n e d to a r e l a -t i v e l y short p e r i o d and only l o o s e l y r e l a t e d to supposed under-l y i n g socio-economic f a c t o r s . For example, i n some areas, such as p a r t s of France, f e r t i l i t y began to d e c l i n e before the spread of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , c e r t a i n socio-econo-mic f a c t o r s were a s s o c i a t e d with (but not n e c e s s a r i l y caused by) demographic changes i n some c o u n t r i e s but i n others these r e l a t i o n s h i p s were not apparent at a l l (Teitelbaum, 1975:421-22). F i n a l l y , o f t e n socio-economic f a c t o r s seemed l e s s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to r e g i o n a l f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s than l i n g u i s t i c , c u l t u -r a l , and e t h n i c d i f f e r e n c e s (Coale, 1979). Thus, Walle and Knodal (1977:53) concluded that " i f c o n v e n t i o n a l statements of t r a n s i t i o n theory are i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r the European e x p e r i e n -ces, on which they p r o f e s s to be based,they are even l e s s l i k e l y to be u s e f u l i n p r e d i c t i n g or e x p l a i n i n g f u t u r e t r a n s i -1 5 t i o n s " . 2.1.2.2 The Relavance of T r a n s i t i o n Theory to Developing C o u n t r i e s The term "developing c o u n t r i e s " r e f e r s to n o n - i n d u s t r i a l low and middle income c o u n t r i e s ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n c y c l o p e d i a of P o p u l a t i o n , 1982: 147). Three g e o g r a p h i c a l areas -- L a t i n Ame-r i c a , A f r i c a and A s i a ( e x c l u d i n g Japan and U.S.S.R — c o n t a i n -ing more than 70 percent of the t o t a l world p o p u l a t i o n f a l l i n t o the above category ( C l a r k , 1970: 7-24). A f t e r the long c o l o n i a l experience, many c o u n t r i e s have r e c e n t l y r e c e i v e d t h e i r p o l i t i c a l independence. They experienced a marked change in death rate a f t e r t h e i r independence which d e c l i n e d from 23 to 13-14 per thousand p o p u l a t i o n (Mauldin, 1981:72) while f e r -t i l i t y remained high, r e s u l t i n g i n a sudden p o p u l a t i o n growth. The r e s u l t s were that more than h a l f of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n was under the age of eighteen. Subsequently, other s o c i o -economic problems have been exacerbated by the sudden popula-t i o n growth. There have been many attempts to ease the popula-t i o n problems by both i n d i v i d u a l governments and i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s . Family pl a n n i n g programmes have been a c t i v a t e d to attempt to achieve the "optimum p o p u l a t i o n " . The f a i l u r e of these a c t i v i t i e s has been blamed on the r e l i g i o u s and c u l t u r a l a t t i t u d e s of the people. However, even i n the absence of econo-mic development, the f e r t i l i t y r a t e s i n recent years i n many developing c o u n t r i e s appear to be f a l l i n g at a much f a s t e r r a t e than that experienced by West Europe dur i n g the demograp-h i c t r a n s i t i o n (Kleinman, 1980:190 and Coale, 1983). 1 6 The a p p l i c a t i o n of modern techniques of demographic and s o c i a l measurements provided b e t t e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s to v a l i d a t e the t r a n s i t i o n theory. The evidence i n d i c a t e s that the t r a n s i -t i o n theory does not apply i n developing c o u n t r i e s . The reason i s t h a t the demographic e v o l u t i o n of the developing c o u n t r i e s i s fundamentally d i f f e r e n t from the experience of the developed n a t i o n s upon which the theory i s based. For example, one of the p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e , a c c o r d i n g to the theory, i s f avourable economic and s o c i a l development (Peterson, 1969:576 and S t o l n i t z , 1964:31). The d e c l i n e i n m o r t a l i t y of European c o u n t r i e s was gradual and was g e n e r a l l y r e l a t e d to the socio-economic f o r c e s of development and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n (Walle and Knodal, 1980:24-26). Contrary to t h i s , i n many developing c o u n t r i e s , m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e s have been more drama-t i c and, i n most i n s t a n c e s , have been a s s o c i a t e d with high and even r i s i n g b i r t h r a t e s ( A r r i a g a , 1970:218-22). Moreover, the r a p i d d e c l i n e i n m o r t a l i t y has r e s u l t e d l a r g e l y from imported t e c h n o l o g i e s . On the other hand, the s t r e n g t h of the t r a n s i t i o n theory l i e s i n the f a c t that with s u f f i c i e n t modernization, f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y w i l l change i n a p r e d i c t a b l e manner ( I n t e r n a t i o -nal E n cyclopaedia of P o p u l a t i o n 1982). The process of moderni-z a t i o n , however, the theory i n s i s t s , i s through i n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n . The recent evidence from the developing c o u n t r i e s , on the other hand, i n d i c a t e s that the f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e has been achieved i n many r u r a l a g r a r i a n c o u n t r i e s i n the T h i r d World without those above mentioned p r e c o n d i t i o n s For 17 example, i t has been repo r t e d that f e r t i l i t y has d e c l i n e d by 42 percent i n China in recent years (Coale, 1983 :830); Ke r a l a and S r i Lanka have managed to lower t h e i r b i r t h r a t e w i t h i n a r e l a t i v e l y short p e r i o d of time (Wright, 1982 and R a t c l i f f e , 1978) ; and f i n a l l y , B a l i , which i s a l s o r u r a l , poor and low i n l i t e r a c y and with h e a l t h c o n d i t i o n s f a r worse than those of China, K e r e l a , and S r i Lanka, has achieved c o n s i d e r a b l e f e r t i -l i t y d e c l i n e i n recent years (Freedman, 1979 :12). F i n a l l y , the theory c l a i m s that f e r t i l i t y i s high i n poor, t r a n s i t i o n a l s o c i e t i e s because of t h e i r " a t t i t u d e s , be-l i e f s , t r a d i t i o n s and i r r a t i o n a l i t i e s " ( C a l d w e l l , 1982:119). Thus, the theory claims that i t i s r a t i o n a l to have fewer c h i l d r e n , and that t h i s r a t i o n a l i t y comes from i n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n . In c o n t r a s t to the arguments, recent m i c r o - l e v e l f e r t i l i t y behaviour s t u d i e s ( C a l d w e l l , 1982) i n r u r a l areas of many developing c o u n t r i e s i n d i c a t e that r u r a l a g r a r i a n s o c i e t i e s are economically and s o c i a l l y r a t i o n a l i n t h e i r own f e r t i l i t y behaviour. Thus, C a l d w e l l (1982: 120) con-c l u d e d that the demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory has f a i l e d to e x p l a i n the r e a l i t y i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s because "the c r i t e r i a employed are h i g h l y e t h n o c e n t r i c and are laden with Western v a l u e s " . 2.1.3 Recent Approaches to F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e The c h a l l e n g e s from the f a i l u r e of c o n v e n t i o n a l theo-r i e s have been responded to by two major approaches i n f e r t i l i -ty behaviour s t u d i e s : macro and m i c r o - l e v e l approaches ( B i r d -18 s a i l , 1982:241). 2.1.3.1 The Macro-Level F e r t i l i t y Behaviour Approach A seminal c o n t r i b u t i o n to the a n a l y s i s of the economic-consequences of p o p u l a t i o n growth was the work of Ansley J . Coale and Edgar M. Hoover i n 1958, i n which they c o n s t r u c t e d a mathematical model of the economy of I n d i a . The main c o n c l u s i o n of t h i s study was that n a t i o n a l economic growth i s impaired i f the f e r t i l i t y l e v e l g r e a t l y exceeds the m o r t a l i t y l e v e l . Maul-ding and Berelson (1978) have claimed t h a t c e r t a i n i n d i c a t o r s of advanced developments are c o r r e l a t e d with low r a t e s of f e r t i l i t y , h igh r a t e s of l i t e r a c y , high per c a p i t a consumption of energy, hi g h r a t e s of u r b a n i z a t i o n , and low r a t e s of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y . Thus, they suggested that government support f o r a fam i l y p l a n n i n g programme, which i s pa r t of the r e s u l t of the socio-economic progress i n developing c o u n t r i e s , can i n c r e a s e the i n f l u e n c e of such progress i n reducing f e r t i l i t y . F i n a l l y , the t h r e s h o l d hypothesis which was i n i t i a t e d by the United Nations i n 1965, d i r e c t e d the a t t e n t i o n of r e s e a r c h to the prime importance of the changing c o n d i t i o n s that l e d to f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e at a p o i n t i d e n t i f i e d as the " t h r e s h o l d " . T h i s h y p othesis i s an attempt to l i n k the demographic t r a n s i -t i o n with s o c i a l change and economic development. According to t h i s h y p o t h e s i s , f e r t i l i t y i s i n i t i a l l y h igh and improving economic and s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s are l i k e l y to have l i t t l e i f any e f f e c t on i t u n t i l a c e r t a i n economic and s o c i a l l e v e l i s reached; but once that l e v e l i s achieved, f e r t i l i t y i s l i k e l y to d e c l i n e and to continue downward u n t i l i t i s again e s t a b l i s -19 hed on a much lower l e v e l ( S r i Karan, 1982). 2.1.3.2 The M i c r o - L e v e l F e r t i l i t y Behaviour Approach The macro-level approach has been c r i t i c i z e d as too ge n e r a l and l i m i t e d to e x p l a i n or p r e d i c t p o p u l a t i o n growth with any degree of s p e c i f i c i t y . Thus, i t has been suggested that the f e r t i l i t y a n a l y s i s should d e a l with i n d i v i d u a l s or households as u n i t s of a n a l y s i s as w e l l as with n a t i o n s , s t a t e s , c o u n t r i e s , or c i t i e s (Burch, 1980:2). F i r s t l y , micro-economists argue that the changes i n household f e r t i l i t y as a f u n c t i o n of changes i n the f a m i l i e s ' economic s i t u a t i o n are attendent upon socio-economic development. They t r e a t the c h i l d as both a produced and a consumer good. They say, f o r example that f e r t i l i t y i s the r e s u l t of r a t i o n a l economic c h o i c e w i t h i n the household and because c h i l d r e n are assumed to be n o n - i n f e r i o r goods, i n c r e a s e income i n c r e a s e s the demand f o r c h i l d r e n f o r the p a r e n t s . C h i l d s e r v i c e s are produced i n the household, though inputs of parent's time goods brought i n the market such housing, formal education and h e a l t h s e r v i c e s . C h i l d r e n may a l s o be an investment, short term i f they work duri n g t h e i r c h i l d h o o d , long term i f they support parents i n o l d age ( B i r d s a l l , 1982: 246). Secondly, Freedman (1962), Hawthorne (1970), Davis and Black (1956) and others have advanced t h e o r e t i c a l frameworks for a n a l y s i n g f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s and behaviour which are esse-n t i a l l y s o c i o l o g i c a l i n c h a r a c t e r . The s o c i o l o g i c a l approach focuses on the group, an extended f a m i l y or c l a n , a s o c i a l c l a s s , or s o c i e t y as a whole (Robinson and Harbison, 1980:221). C a l d w e l l (1982) , on the other hand, develops a new "general theory" of f e r t i l i t y which s t r e s s e s the e s s e n t i a l r o l e p l a y e d 20 w i t h i n the f a m i l y by i n t e r - g e n e r a t i o n a l "net-wealth flows" and the sharp d i f f e r e n c e s i n p r e - t r a n s i t i o n and post t r a n s i t i o n demographic r e g i o n s . F i n a l l y , the focus of the a n t h r o p o l o g i s t has been the a n a l y s i s of k i n s h i p , marriage p a t t e r n s and the systematic con-s i d e r a t i o n of the impact of s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l p a t t e r n s on f e r t i l i t y behaviour. P s y c h o l o g i s t s , on the other hand, focus on i n d i v i d u a l needs, some b i o l o g i c a l or innate, some s o c i a l l y c o n d i t i o n e d by i n t e r a c t i o n s with other i n d i v i d u a l s (Robinson and Harbison, 1980:212-221). Recently, an attempt has been made by Robinson and Harbison (1980) i n order to i n t e g r a t e the d i f f e r e n t m i c r o - l e v e l f e r t i l i t y a n a l y s i s approaches. I am convinced that micro s t u d i e s which focus on the household, attempting to f i n d causes of f e r t i l i t y v a r i a t i o n , o f f e r c o n s i d e r a b l e hope f o r understanding the dynamics of T h i r d world p o p u l a t i o n s and deserves f u r t h e r encouragement. The next s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e s such a g e n e r a l framework f o r a study of f e r t i l i t y among Muslims i n S r i Lanka. 2.2 A Conceptual Framework f o r the F e r t i l i t y  Behaviour of the Muslims of S r i Lanka The l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y i s comparatively h i g h i n many developing c o u n t r i e s . The c o n v e n t i o n a l t h e o r i e s of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e have f a i l e d i n t h e i r e x p l a n a t i o n s because they b e l i e v e that high f e r t i l i t y r e s u l t s from i r r a t i o n a l a t t i t u d e s of pea-sants i n dev e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . I t has been suggested i n recent years that there i s no p a r t i c u l a r advantage to the parents i n reducing the number of c h i l d r e n s i n c e c h i l d r e n are economi-21 c a l l y v a l u a b l e and there i s a net t r a n s f e r of resources from c h i l d r e n to parents ( C a l d w e l l , 1982a). I t has f u r t h e r been suggested that i f the time comes when c h i l d r e n are d i s a d v a n t a -geous f e r t i l i t y w i l l f a l l (Mamdani, 1976 and C a l d w e l l , 1982). The S r i Lankan Muslims, a high f e r t i l i t y group, have been taken as a case study i n t h i s r e s e a r c h to analyse the f e r t i l i t y mechanisms. R e l i g i o u s b e l i e f s have been suggested as the reason f o r high f e r t i l i t y among t h i s group. However, the socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the p o p u l a t i o n have not been c o n s i d e r e d . Thus, a conceptual framework which i n c l u d e s both aspects w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n . It has been recognized that r e l i g i o n i s one of the more i n f l u e n t i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s i n s o c i e t y and as such i s one of the more important s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g human behaviour (Ford and Jong, 1970 : 212). Thus the f e r t i l i t y beha-v i o u r of r e l i g i o u s groups has been given a t t e n t i o n i n many s t u d i e s (Freedman, 1959; Westoff and Ryder, 1969 and o t h e r s ) . Most of these s t u d i e s have been based on three major hypothe-ses . The f i r s t h y p o t h s i s , that of " p a r t i c u l a r i z e d theology", s t a t e s that the impact of r e l i g i o n on f e r t i l i t y behaviour and a t t i t u d e s v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g to the p a r t i c u l a r church d o c t r i n e or r e l i g i o u s ideology on b i r t h c o n t r o l , c o n t r a c e p t i v e usage, and norms of f a m i l y s i z e ( G o l d s c h e i d e r , 1971:272). Secondly the " c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s p r o p o r t i o n " h y p o t h e s i s s t a t e s that the r e l i -gious d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y are e s s e n t i a l l y the r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n c e s i n demographic, s o c i a l and economic a t t i t u d e s of 22 the members of the r e l i g i o u s groups (Go l d s c h e i d e r , 1971:272). T h i r d l y , the "min o r i t y group s t a t u s " hypothesis views r e l i g i o u s f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s w i t h i n the l a r g e r context of a s o c i e -t y ' s f e r t i l i t y behaviour and s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n . The hypothe-s i s i s used to e x p l a i n not only r e l i g i o u s d i f f e r e n c e s in f e r t i -l i t y but a l s o e t h n i c and r a c i a l f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s (Bean and F r i s b i e , 1978:5). However, r e c e n t l y a new hyp o t h e s i s , "the i n t e r a c t i o n h y p o t h e s i s " , has been proposed by Chamie (1981) f o r a comprehensive study of f e r t i l i t y behaviour. He says that there i s no s i n g l e constant e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y t hat may be a t t r i b u t e d to membership i n a p a r t i c u l a r r e l i g i o u s group. R e l i g i o u s f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s w i l l depend on the i n t e r a c t i o n of the socio-economic l e v e l s of the r e l i g i o u s groups and the l o c a l o r i e n t a t i o n (by which we mean the c u r r e n t moral a t t i t u d e s of the r e l i g i o u s community) of those groups towards p r o c r e a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l (Chaime, 1982:9). Davis and Black (1956) and Freedman (1967) have sugges-ted broad determinants of f e r t i l i t y i n t h e i r a n a l y t i c a l models. Ac c o r d i n g to those models, f e r t i l i t y i s assumed to be d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by the l e v e l of int e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s such as age at marriage, use of c o n t r a c e p t i o n , and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y . The so-c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e s and environmental f a c t o r s of a p o p u l a t i o n are assumed to a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y through impact on the i n t e r m e d i a t e v a r i a b l e s . A c c o r d i n g to Freedman's (1967) model, r e l i g i o n forms a p a r t of the s o c i a l and economic s t r u c -t u r e . He f u r t h e r suggests that the e f f e c t of r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a -t i o n s operates v i a norms about f a m i l y s i z e and intermediate v a r i a b l e s . 23 2.2.1. R e l i g i o n and F e r t i l i t y 2.2.1.1 R e l i g i o s i t y , R e l i g i o n and F e r t i l i t y R e l i g i o s i t y has been found to have a str o n g p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p with f e r t i l i t y i n a l l major r e l i g i o n s (Hartman, 1984; Chaudhury, 1976; Westoff, 1973 and 1977. On the other hand, d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y a c c o r d i n g to r e l i g i o n have been repo r t e d in many s t u d i e s (Freedman, 1959; Goldberg, 1967; and o t h e r s ) . In the West, r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n s have a l s o been found to have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y . For example, in Europe, Canada, the Un i t e d S t a t e s , South A f r i c a , A u s t r a l i a and New Zealand, s t u d i e s have shown that C a t h o l i c s have a higher f e r t i l i t y r a t e than n o n - C a t h o l i c s (Jones and Norman, 1968). In the developing c o u n t r i e s , s t u d i e s have shown higher f e r t i l i t y f o r Muslims i n comparison with t h e i r non-Muslim n e i -ghbours ( D r i v e r , 1963; K i r k , 1968; and o t h e r s ) . In S r i Lanka, recent s t u d i e s on f e r t i l i t y (Abbeyaratne, 1967 and Fernando, 1982) and r e p o r t s on p o p u l a t i o n (census r e p o r t s , v i t a l s t a t i s -t i c s and World F e r t i l i t y Survey, 1975) a l l have c l e a r l y i n d i -c ated higher f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s among Muslims. Thus, many r e -searchers have concluded that Islam i s a p r o - n a t a l i s t r e l i g i o n and t h e r e f o r e the f o l l o w e r s of Islam, Muslims, are p r o - n a t a l i s t in t h e i r a t t i t u d e s towards f e r t i l i t y ( K i r k , 1965). However, the f i n d i n g s of high f e r t i l i t y among Muslims are not a l l u n i - d i r e c t i o n a l . There are other s t u d i e s which c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e that e i t h e r no d i f f e r e n c e s e x i s t between Mus-lims and non-Muslims i n f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s or that those d i f f e r e -nces have been due to other f a c t o r s . For example, Yankey (1961) 24 noted a s i m i l a r f e r t i l i t y l e v e l f o r Muslims and C h r i s t i a n s i n r u r a l areas of Lebanon; Rizk (1963) a l s o found t h i s to be the case i n r u r a l Egypt; Dandekar and Dandekar d i d not f i n d any Hindu-Muslim d i f f e r e n c e s in India when socio-economic v a r i a b l e s were c o n t r o l l e d . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , the lowest f e r t i l i t y r a t e s i n S r i Lanka have been found among S r i Lankan Malay Muslims i n recent v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s r e p o r t s . Thus i t would be rather hasty to conclude that r e l i g i o n and hig h f e r t i l i t y are more c l o s e l y r e l a t e d among Muslims than among other r e l i g i o u s groups. 2.2.1.2 Islam and F e r t i l i t y It has been suggested t h a t Islam's demographic a t t i -tudes promote high f e r t i l i t y among i t s f o l l o w e r s ( K i r k , 1965). Others c l a i m that the above a l l e g a t i o n s are based on a m i s i n t e -r p r e t a t i o n of Islamic d o c t r i n e and p r a c t i c e s . For example, regarding b i r t h c o n t r o l , Chaudhury says that Moreover, Islam does not e x p r e s s l y f o r b i d the vo l u n t a r y r e s t r i c t i o n of b i r t h : there i s no p r o v i s i o n i n i t f o r c e n t r a l supreme a u t h o r i t y corresponding to the Papacy which p r o s c r i b e s b i r t h c o n t r o l . Instead, the a u t h o r i t y f o r Muslims i s the Quran which makes no such p r o h i b i t i o n [Hoque, 1974], nor does i t p r o h i b i t any method of c o n t r a c e p t i o n , although i t does not p r o s c r i b e a b o r t i o n , there are c l e a r a u t h o r i t a t i v e s t a t e -ments made by experts i n I s l a m i c law that would permit the p r a c t i c e of b i r t h c o n t r o l (1982:120). In a d d i t i o n , the r e l i g i o n of Islam i s o f t e n c o n s i d e r e d to be p r o - n a t a l i n c h a r a c t e r because i t i n s i s t s that c h i l d r e n are among the r i c h e s t b l e s s i n g s of god. On the other hand, i t i s a l s o w r i t t e n i n the Holy Quran and Hath i d ( T r a d i t i o n a l sayings of the Prophet) that Islam very s t r o n g l y i n s i s t s on the r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of parents f o r t h e i r c h i l d r e n ' s w e l l being. 25 T h e r e f o r e , to understand the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of Muslims, El-Hamansy (1972) f e e l s that g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n should be given to the impact of the b e l i e f system on the people's behaviour l e v e l and l e s s to I s l a m i c theology. She s t r e s s e s that there are c o n d i t i o n s i n Muslim s o c i e t i e s other than r e l i g i o n that encou-rage p r o c r e a t i o n . F i n a l l y , Omran (1973) suggests that i n order to understand the high f e r t i l i t y of Muslims, g r e a t e r emphasis should be p l a c e d on the e x i s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e i r c o u n t r i e s r a t h e r than on the d o c t r i n e of Islam. 2.2.1.3 Muslims as a R e l i g i o - e t h n i c and C u l t u r a l Group and F e r t i l i t y Muslims have been found to c o n s t i t u t e a r e l i g i o -e t h n i c group in many p a r t s of the world r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r p r e v i o u s r a c i a l , l i n g u i s t i c , and c u l t u r a l o r i e n t a t i o n ( I s r a e l i , 1981; Mines, 1981; T e s s l e r , 1981; Wright, 1982 ; Nagata, 1981 and Ulack, 1970). The i n t r o d u c t i o n of Islam and the r e l i g i o u s p r a c t i c e s among the f o l l o w e r s have weakened t h e i r previous e t h n i c i n d e n t i t i e s (Weekes, 1969) because Islam i s not only a set of b e l i e f s and p r a c t i c e s but e s s e n t i a l l y a way of l i f e ( I s r a e l i , 1981: 3). As a r e s u l t , Muslims c o n s t i t u t e , i n some important a s p e c t s , a new r e l i g i o - e t h n i c group. For example, S r i Lankan Muslims who share a common s o c i e t y with other e t h n i c groups ( S i n h a l e s e , Tamils and o t h e r s ) i d e n t i f y themselves and are r e c o g n i z e d by others as a d i f f e r e n t e t h n i c group. The Muslim c u l t u r e i n many p a r t s of the world r e s i s t e d W e s t e r n i z a t i o n i n order to preserve i t s own i d e n t i t y (Rahman, 1982). As Freedman (1963:4) s t a t e s : 26 When many members of s o c i e t y face a r e c u r r e n t common prob-lem with important s o c i a l consequences, they tend to deve-l o p a normative s o l u t i o n f o r i t . t h i s s o l u t i o n becomes par t of the c u l t u r e and the s o c i e t y . . . There i s evidence which suggest why Muslim s o c i e t i e s i n developing c o u n t r i e s are so underdeveloped with respect to education compared to t h e i r non-Muslim neighbours. For example, S r i Lankan Muslims have been i s o l a t e d from the r e s t of the s o c i e t y with r e s p e c t to socio-economic development, i n c l u d i n g e ducation, f o r many c e n t u r i e s d u r i n g the c o l o n i a l p e r i o d and, to some extent, even at present because of the fear of r e l i -gious c o n v e r s i o n and c u l t u r a l d e s t r u c t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , they have adopted a set of c u l t u r a l behaviour which, i n f a c t , s t i l l i n f l u e n c e s t h e i r f e r t i l i t y behaviour. 2.2.2 Female Status and F e r t i l i t y The s t a t u s of women and t h e i r r o l e i n the community and fam i l y d e c i s i o n making, i n c l u d i n g the t i m i n g and number of b i r t h s and the choice of c o n t r a c e p t i v e s , have an important impact on the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of any s o c i e t y (Chaudhury, 1982: 71). 2.2.2 Female Education and F e r t i l i t y E ducation i s con s i d e r e d to be one of the most important v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t i n g f e r t i l i t y behaviour and i s b e l i e v e d to be the s i n g l e most important v a r i a b l e a ccounting f o r a l a r g e r e d u c t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y i n those c o u n t r i e s that have have a l r e a -dy experienced f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e (Coale, 1965; Cochrane, 1979). I n c r e a s i n g female education, t h e r e f o r e , a f f e c t s the f e r t i l i t y 27 by: ( i ) p r o v i d i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r pers o n a l advancement and awareness of s o c i a l m o b i l i t y , new outlook, the freedom from t r a d i t i o n , the values and p a t t e r n s of behaviour and devel o p i n g r a t i o n a l i s m . Education meets some of the b a s i c p s y c h o l o g i c a l needs of women as the need f o r c r e a t i v i t y , a d e s i r e to a c q u i r e knowledge, and a d e s i r e to obt a i n freedom from c l o s e f a m i l i a l c o n t r o l s ; ( i i ) i t reduces [should be i n c r e a s e s ] the age at marriage and i n c r e a s e s the probab i -l i t y of non-marriage; ( i i i ) i t reduces the d e s i r e d f a m i l y s i z e by f o s t e r i n g a high standard of l i v i n g f o r a couple and t h e i r c h i l d r e n , and s t i m u l a t e s a woman's i n t e r e s t and involvement with a c t i v i t i e s o u t s i d e the home, p a r t i c u l a r l y by employment; ( i v ) i t exposes women to knowledge, a t t i -tudes, and p r a c t i c e s favourable to b i r t h c o n t r o l ; (v) i t allows g r e a t e r female p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n f a m i l y d e c i s i o n making; ( v i ) i t i n c r e a s e s the chances of s u r v i v a l of i n f a n t s (Chaudhury, 1982: 84-85). In a c r o s s - n a t i o n a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s , i t was found that the l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y i n c r e a s e s c o n s i s t e n t l y with d e c l i n -ing l i t e r a c y of the female p o p u l a t i o n (U.N.O., 1953). A number of s t u d i e s have found an inv e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between female education and f e r t i l i t y l e v e l i n European c o u n t r i e s ( R i s e r , 1971). Moreover, S r i Lanka i s one of the few c o u n t r i e s i n the developing world that has managed to reduce i t s f e r t i l i t y l e v e l c o n s i d e r a b l y i n a r e l a t i v e l y short p e r i o d of time s o l e l y by i n c r e a s i n g education alone. 2.2.2.2. Female Age at Marriage and F e r t i l i t y Female age at marriage and the p r o p o r t i o n of married women have been c o n s i d e r e d as two of the important f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g f e r t i l i t y behaviour s i n c e the work of Malthus. Davis and Black (1956), on the other hand, used female age at mar-ri a g e as an intermediate v a r i a b l e i n t h e i r model. E a r l y mar-ri a g e f o r females means commencement of r e p r o d u c t i v e l i f e at an e a r l y age. Since the m a j o r i t y of b i r t h s are w i t h i n marriage 28 in most developing c o u n t r i e s , i n c r e a s i n g the female age at marriage means de c r e a s i n g the a c t i v e r e p r o d u c t i v e age span and consequently a smaller f a m i l y . A recent d e t a i l e d i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the h i s t o r i c a l experience of West European c o u n t r i e s has concluded that the f i r s t demographic t r a n s i t i o n took p l a c e when Europe adopted p a t t e r n s of delayed marriage (Coale, 1973). Increased female age at marriage l e d to a c o n s i d e r a b l e f e r t i l i -ty d e c l i n e i n many de v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . T i e n (1970) i n China and Cho and Retheford (1974) i n West Mal a y s i a have found that r i s i n g female age at marriage r e s u l t e d i n a d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i -ty i n those c o u n t r i e s . 2.2.2.3 Female Workforce P a r t i c i p a t i o n and F e r t i l i t y The occupation of women determines the degrees of t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the community d e c i s i o n making which i n turn a f f e c t s t h e i r a b i l i t y to p a r t i c i p a t e i n d e c i s i o n s concerning f e r t i l i t y . G a i n f u l employment of women o u t s i d e the home i s found to be i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d to f e r t i l i t y i n many p a r t s of the world. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between f e r t i l i t y and occupation of married women may be e x p l a i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g terms: ( i ) the op p o r t u n i t y c o s t of an a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d becomes high when the p r o s p e c t i v e mother i s g a i n -f u l l y employed away from home; ( i i ) women engaged in n o n - f a m i l i a l a c t i v i t i e s are l i k e l y to develop n o n - f a m i l i a l i n t e r e s t s and t h e i r d e s i r e f o r a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n may t h e r e f o r e tend to be r e l a t i v e l y low ; ( i i i ) when the s t a t u s of women depends more on t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n than t h e i r f e r t i l i t y , maternity becomes unimportant i n t h e i r scheme of l i f e ( C h a t t e r j e e , 1979: 37). However, the r e l a t i o n s h i p between workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y i s very complex and the e m p i r i c a l evidence i s h i g h l y 29 i n c o n c l u s i v e ( M u e l l e r , 1982). 2.2.3 Socio-Economic Status, Family Form and F e r t i l i t y The i n f l u e n c e of socio-economic s t a t u s v a r i a b l e s i n e x p l a i n i n g f e r t i l i t y behaviour has been important in f e r t i l i t y s t u d i e s . H i s t o r i c a l l y , s t u d i e s conducted in many Western coun-t r i e s have shown that there has been an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between socio-economic s t a t u s and f e r t i l i t y d u r i n g the p e r i o d of u r b a n i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . The s o c i a l s t a t u s of the household i s i d e n t i f i e d with the l e v e l of income, occ u p a t i o n , and e d u c a t i o n . With regard to the i n f l u e n c e of household income on f e r t i l i t y , Freedman (1959: 138) s t a t e s t h a t : There are s e v e r a l p o s s i b l e f a c t o r s which may have forced-the higher income groups to have fewer c h i l d r e n . One impor-tant case may have been (the f i r s t ) that c h i l d r e n r e p r e -sent an economic burden impeding s o c i a l m o b i l i t y . Another p o s s i b l e reason i s the l o c a t i o n of the couples with higher income i n l a r g e c i t i e s where f e r t i l i t y i s u s u a l l y low. S t i l l another f a c t o r may be the l e s s f a m i l i s t i c o r i e n t a t i o n of the e c o n o m i c a l l y advantaged c l a s s . I t must not be sup-posed t h a t they have been u n i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e i r c h i l d r e n , but they may have had other c u l t u r a l i n t e r e s t p o s s i b l y r e s u l t i n g from t h e i r b e t t e r e d u c a t i o n that may have reduced the importance of l a r g e f a m i l i e s . Many s t u d i e s in d e veloping c o u n t r i e s have shown a s t r o n g negative r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s . On the other hand, some s t u d i e s do not show any d e f i n i t e r e l a t i o n -s h i p between the two ( D r i v e r , 1963; Agarwala, 1970; Repetto, 1979). However, in S r i Lanka, the l e v e l of income has been found to be a s i g n i f i c a n t i n d i c a t o r of f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s (Abehyaratne, 1974; W.F.S., 1975). The occupation of the household, on the one hand, may be 30 c o n s i d e r e d an even more c r u c i a l measure of socio-economic s t a -tus than income l e v e l because i t s endeavour i s the most domi-nant s i n g l e i n f l u e n c e on a man's l i f e . Regarding the r e l a t i o n -s h i p s between occupation and f e r t i l i t y , e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s i n d i f f e r e n t Western c o u n t r i e s p o i n t out sharp f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n -ces between white c o l l a r and blue c o l l a r workers. The above r e l a t i o n s h i p i s evidenced i n the developing c o u n t r i e s as w e l l . For example, the f i n d i n g s of the World F e r t i l i t y Survey (1975) in S r i Lanka c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e r e l a t i v e l y low f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s among p r o f e s s i o n a l , t e c h n i c a l and managerial workers as com-pared to farmers, fishermen and u n s k i l l e d workers. F i n a l l y , i t i s assumed that the f e r t i l i t y l e v e l of a s o c i e t y i s i n f l u e n c e d by i t s dominant f a m i l y s t r u c t u r e . I t i s u s u a l l y hypothesized that the nu c l e a r f a m i l y and household s t r u c t u r e promote lower f e r t i l i t y (Bebarta, 1979). Some e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s sup-port the above argument (Palmore, 1972), while others have found l i t t l e or no r e l a t i o n s h i p between the two v a r i a b l e s (Agarwala, 1970). 2.2.4. Infant and C h i l d M o r t a l i t y and F e r t i l i t y High i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y i s c o n s i d e r e d as one of the determining f a c t o r s i n the adoption of small f a m i l y s i z e norms i n de v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s because s u c c e s s f u l r e p r o d u c t i o n r e q u i r e s h i g h f e r t i l i t y to o f f s e t high m o r t a l i t y (Scrimshaw, 1978). Thus, many s o c i e t i e s i n the dev e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have adopted an e a r l y age at marriage, u n i v e r s a l marriage, frequent c h i l d - b e a r i n g and high f a m i l y s i z e norms i n order to maintain 31 t h e i r demographic balance (Chaudhury, 1982: 130). I t has been suggested that i f m o r t a l i t y d e c l i n e s , the above p r o - n a t a l i s t norms w i l l d isappear. Schultz(1974) found a c l e a r s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y i n many de v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . Moreover, s e v e r a l s t u d i e s at the micro l e v e l of a n a l y s i s have a l s o found higher f e r t i l i t y among women who l o s t c h i l d r e n compared with those whose c h i l d r e n s u r v i v e d and con-cluded that the observed d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y were due to a d e s i r e to r e p l a c e the c h i l d r e n (Wyon and Gordon, 1971; H a r r i -ngton, 1971). 2.2.5 An A n a l y t i c a l Framework for the F e r t i l i t y Behaviour  of Muslims in S r i Lanka The schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of a model f o r the f e r t i l i -ty study of Muslims of S r i Lanka i s shown in diagram 2.1. The v a r i a b l e s i n the model are arranged a c c o r d i n g to the c a u s a l sequence which were observed d u r i n g the f i e l d survey. The model works backward from the measure of f e r t i l i t y through interme-d i a t e or i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r s to much wider socio-economic f a c -t o r s to g e o g r a p h i c a l and c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s which u l t i m a t e l y a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y . The model suggests that c u l t u r a l , geographi-c a l , and socio-economic f a c t o r s a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y through a number of intermediate f a c t o r s . The arrangement of t h i s model i s based on the f o l l o w i n g l o g i c . F i r s t l y , f e r t i l i t y i s d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d by a number of intermediate or i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r s . For example, i n c r e a s i n g c h i l d m o r t a l i t y i n c r e a s e s f e r t i l i t y ; l i k e w i s e , i n c r e a s i n g f e -male age at marriage and her workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n decreases FIGURE 2.1: SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM INDICATING THE RELATIONSHIP OF SELECTED VARIABLES IN FERTILITY BEHAVIOR CULTURAL FACTORS T r i \ ECONOMIC FERTILITY FACTORS SOURCE: Field Survey, 1981. 3 3 the t o t a l number of pregnancies. Secondly, intermediate or i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s are mediated by socio-economic c h a r a c t e -r i s t i c s of the household. For example, the l e v e l of the house-h o l d income as economic f a c t o r may i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y v i a a number of intermediate v a r i a b l e s . Likewise, types of fa m i l y , s o c i a l norms ( s o c i a l f a c t o r s ) may a l s o i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y through intermediate f a c t o r s . F o u r t h l y , socio-economic f a c t o r s are mainly determined by g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n s of the house-h o l d s . F i n a l l y , c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , such as e t h n i c c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s , r e l i g i o u s b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s , i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y d i r e c t l y and a l s o through a number of other f a c t o r s . 2.2.6.1 Hypotheses The f o l l o w i n g hypotheses w i l l be t e s t e d i n the a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y behaviour of Muslims of S r i Lanka. ( i ) Low female education i s p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d with low female age at marriage. ( i i ) Low female age at marriage i s p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d with high f e r t i l i t y . ( i i i ) Low female employment p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e -l a t e d with high f e r t i l i t y . ( i v ) Income i s a s i g n i f i c a n t determinant of f e r t i l i t y . (v) D i f f e r e n c e s i n f e r t i l i t y behaviour occur among d i f f e r e n t socio-economic groups. ( v i ) There i s s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y between d i f f e -rent c u l t u r a l r e g i o n s . ( v i i ) High i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y are p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d with a high number of pregnancies. 34 CHAPTER 3 THE RECENT FERTILITY TRENDS IN SRI LANKA AND OF SRI LANKAN MUSLIMS F e r t i l i t y has d e c l i n e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n S r i Lanka i n recent decades. Studies have i n d i c a t e d that the country has been e x p e r i e n c i n g a demographic t r a n s i t i o n from high to low b i r t h and death r a t e s (Fernando, 1976; Alame and C l e l a n d , 1981). For example, b i r t h and death r a t e s have d e c l i n e d by 30 and 50 percent w i t h i n the l a s t two decades. The c o n s i d e r a b l e r e d u c t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y , however, i s not common to a l l e t h n i c and r e l i g i o u s groups. For example, demographically, the S r i Lankan Muslims have behaved d i f f e r e n t l y compared to other r e l i g i o u s groups. T h e r e f o r e , the purpose of the f o l l o w i n g chapter i s to compare the recent f e r t i l i t y t rends of S r i Lanka Muslims with other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups. 3.1 Recent F e r t i l i t y Trends i n S r i Lanka 3.1.1 P o p u l a t i o n Growth The p o p u l a t i o n of S r i Lanka has i n c r e a s e d f o u r f o l d s i n c e the beginning of the century, from 3.6 m i l l i o n i n 1901 to 14.9 m i l l i o n i n 1981. Much of the p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e o c c u r r e d d u r i n g the 25-year p e r i o d between 1946 and 1971. During t h i s 25-year p e r i o d , the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n doubled from 6.0 m i l l i o n to 12.0 m i l l i o n . More than 95 percent of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d was due to n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e r a t h e r than m i g r a t i o n . For example , the death r a t e d e c l i n e d by 62 percent from 20.2 deaths per thousand p o p u l a t i o n i n 1946 to 7.7 deaths i n 1971. The b i r t h r a t e , on the other hand, f l u c t -35 uated u n t i l 1960; s i n c e then , i t has d e c l i n e d s t e a d i l y from 36 b i r t h s per thousand p o p u l a t i o n to 30 b i r t h s i n 1971 r e s u l t i n g i n a 20 percent decrease. F e r t i l i t y has f u r t h e r d e c l i n e d bet-ween 1971 and 1981 as w e l l (Table 3.1). The s i g n i f i c a n c e of the f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e w i l l be examined i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n with the he l p of s e l e c t e d f e r t i l i t y i n d i c e s . 3.1.2 Recent F e r t i l i t y Trends i n S r i Lanka Three f e r t i l i t y i n d i c a t o r s , crude b i r t h r a t e (number of b i r t h s per thousand p o p u l a t i o n ) , general f e r t i l i t y r a t e (number of b i r t h s per thousand women aged 15-49), and t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e (number of b i r t h s per woman'), show that f e r t i l i t y has been d e c l i n i n g s i n c e 1953 (Table 3.1). The general f e r t i l i t y r a t e has shown about 25 percent d e c l i n e from 185 b i r t h s i n 1953 to 139 i n 1971. A s i m i l a r r e d u c t i o n i n crude b i r t h r a t e i s a l s o evident between 1953 and 1971. In a d d i t i o n , the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e has d e c l i n e d by two b i r t h s from 5.32 b i r t h s i n 1953 to 3.35 i n 1974. The f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n i n recent years has been r e f l e c t e d by the decreased average annual growth r a t e which decreased from 2.8 percent i n 1963 to 1.8 percent i n 1981 (see Table 3.4). Fi g u r e s 3.1 and 3.2 i l l u s t r a t e the a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i -ty (number of b i r t h s per thousand women i n each age group) and a g e - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s (number of b i r t h s per thousand married women i n each age group) which i n d i c a t e the recent f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e more s p e c i f i c a l l y by women's age co-h o r t s . The in f o r m a t i o n of a g e - s p e c i f i c and a g e - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l 36 TABLE 3.1 FERTILITY INDICATORS (SRI LANKA) 1953-1974 Years Crude B i r t h General T o t a l Rate (per 1,000 F e r t i l i t y F e r t i l i t y t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ) Rate(per 1,000 Rate(per women aged 15-49) women) 1953 37.7 185 5.32 1963 34.4 165 5.04 1971 30.1 138.7 4.16 1974 27.5 121.2 3.35 SOURCE: * Data from R e g i s t r a r - G e n e r a l , Reports on V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s and the Po p u l a t i o n censuses. ** S r i Lanka F e r t i l i t y Survey, 1978: 7. f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f o r 1953, 1963 and 1971 are based on census r e p o r t s and the i n f o r m a t i o n f o r 1975 i s based on the World F e r t i l i t y Survey. F i r s t l y , a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s have shown a c l e a r f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e a c r o s s the ages (Figure 3.1). In a d d i t i o n , the young age cohort s have shown a c l e a r e r f e r t i -l i t y d e c l i n e than the e l d e r s . For example a pronounced f a l l of 42 percent was witnessed i n the 15-19 age group while a mode-rat e d e c l i n e of 29 percent was observed i n the 20-24 age group i n the census i n f o r m a t i o n between 1953 and 1971. The World F e r t i l i t y Survey has recorded f u r t h e r d e c l i n e s of a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n 1975. The r e f o r e , the a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n i n d i c a t e s . that the women i n younger age cohort s have been undergoing r a p i d demographic changes i n recent years. F u r t h e r -more, the a g e - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s have strengthen-ed the above argument as w e l l ( F i g u r e 3.2). 37 FIGURE 3.1: AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES - 1953, 1963, 1971 AND 1975 2 0 - 2 4 SOURCE: Data for 1953, 1963, 1971 are from Population Census Reports and 1975 i s from the World F e r t i l i t y Survey. 3 8 •* FIGURE 3.2: AGE-SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITY RATES -1953, 1963, 1971 AND 1975 15-19 20-24 SOURCE: Data for 1953, 1963, 1971 are from Population Census Reports and 1975 i s from the World F e r t i l i t y Survey. 39 3.1.3. The Determinants of F e r t i l i t y D e c l i n e The recent f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka has been a t t r i b u t e d to s e v e r a l i n t e r r e l a t e d demographic and s o c i a l f a c -t o r s . F i r s t l y , the most s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r i n f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e has been the changes i n the p r o p o r t i o n of marriage i n d i f f e r e n t age cohort s i n recent years (Wright, 1970 and Fernando, 1974 and 1979). An examination of c u r r e n t l y married women by age groups (Table 3.2) i s c l e a r l y evidence of a d e c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n of female marriages among the women aged 25 and below. For example, between 1953 and 1981, the TABLE 3.2 PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN CURRENTLY MARRIED IN 1953, 1971 AND 1981 Age of Women Census Year 1953 1963 1971 1981 15-19 23.7 14.8 10.4 10.1 20-24 65.7 57.6 45.9 43.8 25-29 84.4 81.0 73.4 68.2 30-34 87.8 88.6 85.9 81.1 35-39 86.5 89.8 89.0 85.7 40-44 80.7 86.1 86.9 85.8 45-49 73.8 81.6 83.5 83.8 SOURCE: P o p u l a t i o n Censuses, 1953-1981. percentage of c u r r e n t l y married women i n the 15-19 age group has d e c l i n e d by 57 percent while the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups have d e c l i n e d by 33 and 19 percent r e s p e c t i v e l y . In a d d i t i o n , female age at marriage has shown a r a p i d i n c r e a s e by n e a r l y four years from 20.9 years i n 1953 to 25.1 years i n 1981. 40 T h e r e f o r e , female marriage postponement played an important r o l e i n f e r t i l i t y between 1953 and 1963 (Wright, 1968) and i n the p e r i o d 1963-1971 (Fernando, 1976). Secondly, the e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g female l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g has d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d S r i Lankan f e r t i l i t y . For example, approximately 83 percent of the women i n 1981 compared with 91 percent of men are l i t e r a t e ( S r i Lanka Popula-t i o n and Housing Census, 1981). There has been a n e a r l y 50 percent i n c r e a s e i n the female l i t e r a c y r a t e between 1946 and 1981. In a d d i t i o n , the r a t e s of female school enrolment have i n c r e a s e d r a p i d l y d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . For example, of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , women represent 44 percent of those with primary educ a t i o n , 43 percent of those with secondary education, and 37 percent of those with higher education i n 1971 ( S r i Lanka Census of P o p u l a t i o n and Housing, 1971). S e v e r a l s t u d i e s have i n v e s t i g a t e d the r e l a t i o n of female education and f e r t i l i t y (W.F.S., 1975; Fernando, 1974, 1979). A l l have found a strong negative r e l a t i o n between female educa-t i o n and f e r t i l i t y . For example, Fernando (1982), i n h i s recent study of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between f e r t i l i t y and s e l e c t e d back-ground v a r i a b l e s i n S r i Lanka using 1953, 1963, and 1971 census data, has found that the l i t e r a c y of women aged 20-24 years i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d to f e r t i l i t y . F i n a l l y , as i n d i c a t e d e a r l i e r , the a g e - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e has changed over time between 1953 and 1974 (Fig u r e 3.2). The recent d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was p a r t l y a response to i n c r e a s i n g use of c o n t r a c e p t i v e s (W.F.S., 41 1978: 9). For example, the new acc e p t o r s of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g have i n c r e a s e d n e a r l y 100 percent between 1967 and 1974. Howe-ver, the World F e r t i l i t y Survey (1975) repo r t e d that the use of modern c o n t r a c e p t i o n was low when compared e i t h e r with the l e v e l of knowledge or with the l e v e l of d e s i r e to stop c h i l d b e a r i n g . Another recent survey on v a r i a t i o n i n l i f e q u a l i t y i n S r i Lanka a l s o found s i m i l a r r e s u l t s (Waxier, Morrison et a l . , 1984). In other words, d e s p i t e the knowledge of f a m i l y p l a n n i n g and the d e s i r e to stop bearing c h i l d r e n , very few people use modern c o n t r a c e p t i o n to r e g u l a t e t h e i r f e r t i l i t y behaviour. Fernando (1982) found that female l i t e r a c y and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y c o n t r i b u t e d to the v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y but those f a c t o r s remained unchanged between 1953 and 1971. Th e r e f o r e , he sugges-ted that f a m i l y p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s may have had l i t t l e impact on f e r t i l i t y . Table 3.3 summarizes the determinants of f e r t i l i t y i n recent y e a r s . As Table 3.3 i n d i c a t e s , the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e has d e c l i n e d by n e a r l y two b i r t h s between 1953 and 1975. The female l i t e r a c y and age at marriage have i n c r e a s e d by 54 per-cent and four years r e s p e c t i v e l y . In c o n c l u s i o n , r a p i d d e c l i n e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of marriage and ever i n c r e a s i n g l i t e r a c y r a t e s may have c o n t r i b u t e d much to the recent f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka (Fernando, 1982: 65). 3.2 F e r t i l i t y Trends Among Muslims A notable v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y e x i s t s among r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups i n S r i Lanka. The Muslims have been quoted as a " a hig h f e r t i l i t y group" i n many recent s t u d i e s (Abehayarat-42 TABLE 3.3 DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN SRI LANKA Year Female Female Age P r o p o r t i o n T o t a l F e r t i -L i t e r a c y at Marriage of Marriage l i t y (Percent) (Years) (Females) (Per Woman) (Percent) 1953 53.6 20.9 24 5.3 1963 63.2 22.1 15 5.0 1971 70.7 23.1 10.3 4.23 1981 82.4 24.4 10.1 3.35 SOURCE: Data from P o p u l a t i o n Census, 1953 to 1981 except for the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y f o r 1981, which i s from S r i Lanka F e r t i l i t y Survey, 1978b: 7. ne, 1967; W.F.S., 1978; Fernando, 1980, 1982). S r i Lankan Moors, who c o n s t i t u t e n e a r l y 95 percent of the t o t a l Muslim p o p u l a t i o n , were a l s o given the same t i t l e . Comparatively high f e r t i l i t y among Muslims was e x p l a i n e d i n many s t u d i e s as due to t h e i r r e l i g i o u s b e l i e f s and a t t i t u d e s . For i n s t a n c e , Fernando concluded , i n h i s recent f e r t i l i t y a n a l y s i s of f i v e S r i Lankan Moor communities, that the r e l i g i o u s conservatism of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has i n f l u e n c e d t h e i r f e r t i l i t y (Fernando, 1982). The purpose of the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n i s to i d e n t i f y some of the socio-economic and demographic f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n by u s i n g a v a i l a b l e n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s . 3.2.1 Muslim P o p u l a t i o n Growth The growth of the S r i Lanka Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has been a r e f l e c t i o n of n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n growth (see Table 3.4). The growth of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has not been uniform throughout 43 TABLE 3.4 POPULATION GROWTH IN SRI LANKA--MUSLIM GROWTH IN PERSPECTIVE Census Muslim P o p u l a t i o n Increase (%) Average Annual Year Growth Rate (% ) Number Increase (%) Musiim T o t a l Musiim T o t a l 1871 171543 _ _ _ 1881 197775 262333 15.3 15.0 1 .4 1 .4 1891 211995 1 4220 7.2 8.7 0.7 • 0.9 1901 246118 34123 16.1 21 .9 1 .5 1 .7 1911 283631 37513 15.2 12.3 1 .4 1 .4 1 921 302532 18901 6.6 9.6 0.6 0.9 1 946 436556 134150 44.4 48.0 1 .6 1 .7 1953 541506 104950 24.0 21.6 1 .4 1 .5 1 963 724043 182537 33.7 30.7 3.1 2.8 1 971 909941 185898 25.7 19.9 2.8 2.7 1981 1134556 224615 24.7 16.8 2.8 2.2 SOURCE: Computed from v a r i o u s census r e p o r t s , 1871-1981. t h i s century as noted i n the n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n growth ear-l i e r . For example the percentage growth of the t o t a l Muslim p o p u l a t i o n i n the s e v e n t y - f i v e year p e r i o d between 1871 and 1946 was more or l e s s the same as du r i n g the p e r i o d 1946-1971 (Table 3.4). Th i s means that the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has grown very slowly with an average of 1.2 percent annual growth; du r i n g the second p e r i o d ( t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s ) , however, i t grew at a much f a s t e r r a t e with an average annual r a t e of 2.4 per-cent. In a d d i t i o n , a moderate growth was observed between 1971 and 1981. The rate of Muslim p o p u l a t i o n growth, however, has reversed s i n c e 1953 compared with the ra t e of n a t i o n a l popula-t i o n growth. For example, the growth r a t e of Muslim p o p u l a t i o n was lower than the n a t i o n a l r a t e before 1963 and higher a f t e r 44 1963 (Table 3.4). The p o p u l a t i o n growth has v a r i e d among r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups as w e l l . As Table 3.5 i n d i c a t e s , the growth of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n , when compared with other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups, has v a r i e d . For example, the percentage growth of Muslim p o p u l a t i o n was lower than f o r Buddhist and higher than f o r other r e l i g i o u s groups between 1911 and 1946. On the other hand, the growth r a t e of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n was higher than f o r a l l other r e l i g i o u s groups but s l i g h t l y higher than the Buddhists d u r i n g the p e r i o d 1946-1971 and 1971-1981. F i g u r e 3.3 i l l u s t r a t e s the p o p u l a t i o n growth of r e l i g i o u s groups bet-ween 1911 and 1981. The Hindu and C h r i s t i a n p o p u l a t i o n s have a comparatively lower growth rate s i n c e t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n s have been s u b j e c t to o u t m i g r a t i o n . The p o p u l a t i o n growth of e t h n i c groups i n d i c a t e s (Table 3.5) that the Moor p o p u l a t i o n has grown slower than the S r i Lankan Tamil p o p u l a t i o n d u r i n g 1971 and 1981. F i n a l l y , the p o p u l a t i o n growth has v a r i e d among the Muslims as w e l l . For example F i g u r e 3.4 i l l u s t r a t e s that the S r i Lankan Moor p o p u l a t i o n has been growing s t e a d i l y compared with the Indian Moors and Malays. 3.2.2 F e r t i l i t y Trends Among Muslims In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , the v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y among r e l i g i o u s groups w i l l be analysed by using a v a i l a b l e f e r t i l i t y i n d i c a t o r s . The a v a i l a b l e socio-economic and demogra-phic i n f o r m a t i o n i s , i n many cases, l i m i t e d to e t h n i c groups o n l y . T h e r e f o r e , the S r i Lankan Moors, who c o n s t i t u t e n e a r l y 95 45 46 FIGURE 3.4: TRENDS IN MUSLIM POPULATION 100,000 10.000 1921 1931 1941 1951 YEAR 1961 1971 1981 SOURCE: Population Census Reports, 1911 - 1981, 47 TABLE 3.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN POPULATION BY RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC GROUPS, 1911-1981 Group 1911-1946 1946-1.971 1971-1981 R e l i g i o u s Group Buddhist 74 100 20 Hindu 41 41 03 C h r i s t i a n 47 65 12 Muslim 54 108 25 Et h n i c Group Si n h a l e s e 70 100 20 S r i Lankan Tamil 40 93 32 S r i Lankan Moors 60 121 28 SOURCE: C a l c u l a t e d from census r e p o r t s . percent of the t o t a l Muslim p o p u l a t i o n , w i l l be represented by the S r i Lankan Muslim p o p u l a t i o n as a whole. Much has been w r i t t e n about S r i Lankan f e r t i l i t y i n recent y e a r s . The p a t t e r n of Muslim f e r t i l i t y i s n e a r l y i d e n t i -c a l to the n a t i o n a l f e r t i l i t y trends i n many r e s p e c t s . For example, crude b i r t h r a t e f o r Muslims has f l u c t u a t e d along with the death r a t e u n t i l the middle of t h i s c entury (Figure 3.5). The improvement i n m o r t a l i t y and/ or m o r b i d i t y c o n t r i b u t e to i n c r e a s e s i n S r i Lankan f e r t i l i t y a f t e r 1946 (Lambard, 1980: 291). L i k e w i s e , the f e r t i l i t y of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has a l s o i n c r e a s e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . For example, crude b i r t h r a t e s and child-women r a t i o s (Table 3.6) have shown an in c r e a s e and remained h i g h u n t i l 1963. In a d d i t i o n , Lambard noted an i n -crease i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e d u r i n g the same p e r i o d among 48 TABLE 3.6 CRUDE BIRTH RATES AND CHILD-WOMEN RATION BY ETHNIC GROUPS 1946-1977 E t h n i c Group Census Year Percent D e c l i n e 1946 1953 1963 1971 1977 1963-77 Crude B i r t h Rate S i n h a l e s e 38.7 41 .0 34.5 29. 9 27 .3 -20.9 S r i Lanka Tamils 35.6 39.2 37.6 31 . 8 28 .3 -24.9 Indian Tamils 41.2 33.0 28.3 25. 7 30 .6 + 8. 1 S r i Lanka Moors42.7 42.7 42.9 39. 0 32 .6 -24.0 Malays 42.3 39.6 34.8 27. 2 20 .8 -40.0 A l l 37.4 38.7 34.4 30. 4 27 .5 -18.4 * Child-Women R a t i o Percent D e c l i n i 1963-7 Si n h a l e s e 596 720 741 598 -19 S r i Lankan Tamils 510 633 774 609 -21 Indian Tamils 647 697 617 537 -13 S r i Lanka Moors623 803 941 767 -19 Burgers 468 592 550 428 -22 A l l 594 715 749 603 -19 Note: * Po p u l a t i o n aged 0-4 year per 1,000 women aged 15-44. SOURCE: Computed from Census Reports and R e g i s t r a r General's Report on v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s . S r i Lankan Moors and p o s s i b l y among Indian Tamils (Lambard, 1980: 301). He s t a t e s that the reason f o r the i n c r e a s e i s "... improvement i n h e a l t h and/ or l e v e l of n u t r i t i o n , or because of the breakdown of s o c i a l norms which had acted p r e v i o u s l y to 49 c o n s t r a i n f e r t i l i t y ..." (1980: 302). Fernando (1982: 421) using crude b i r t h r a t e s and women-c h i l d r a t i o noted that Muslim f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f e l l more slowly than that of the other e t h n i c groups between 1953 and 1971. Table 3.6 shows, however, a d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e . Muslim f e r t i l i t y has d e c l i n e d f a s t e r than the n a t i o n a l r a t e and that of many other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups i n recent years. As noted e a r l i e r , Muslim f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e d s i n c e 1963. Muslim f e r t i l i t y has shown a c o n s i d e r a b l e d e c l i n e between 1963 and 1981 (Table 3.6). For example, crude b i r t h r a t e i s evidence of a 24 percent d e c l i n e d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d which was one of the l a r g e s t d e c l i n e s (Table 3.6). In a d d i t i o n , the child-women r a t i o i n d i c a t e s more than a moderate d e c l i n e between the 1963 and 1971 p e r i o d . Above a l l , the crude b i r t h r a t e of Malay Muslims has. shown a r a p i d d e c l i n e and has remained at a low l e v e l when compared to a l l the other e t h n i c groups. F i n a l l y , the a g e - s p e c i f i c m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e has a l s o d e c l i n e d i n a l l age groups among the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n (Table 3.7). T h e r e f o r e , from the a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n , i t c o u l d be suggested that the S r i Lankan Muslims are not an exception to the present n a t i o n a l trends of r a p i d l y d e c r e a s i n g f e r t i l i t y . To understand why some (Muslim) behave d i f f e r e n t l y in t h e i r c h i l d - b e a r i n g a c t i v i t i e s , g r e a t e r emphasis should be pl a c e d on the e x i s t i n g socio-economic and p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n of t h i s group. 50 TABLE 3.7 PERCENTAGE OF CHANGE BETWEEN 1960/65 AND 1970/75 IN AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES BY ETHNICITY AND RELIGION Age of Women at B i r t h E t h n i c i t y and R e l i g i o n S i n h a l e s e Tamil Hindu Buddhist Moor Muslim C h r i s t i a n and Others 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 -6.2 -17.4 -16.6 -37.5 4.5 -10.7 -8.4 -27. 1 1 .4 8.4 -6.8 -0.9 -15.1 -16.3 -20.8 -14.3 0.3 -20.6 -26.8 SOURCE: Alam and C l e l a n d , 1981: 15. NOTE: Women on e s t a t e s have been excluded. 3.2.3 Determinants of Muslim F e r t i l i t y F i r s t of a l l , m o r t a l i t y as a socio-economic i n d i c a t o r may have had an e f f e c t on the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the S r i Lankan Muslims throughout t h i s c e n t u r y . As noted e a r l i e r ( F i -gure 3.5), the crude b i r t h r a t e s of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n had f l u c t u a t e d along with crude death r a t e s d u r i n g the f i r s t h a l f of t h i s century. M a l a r i a and other epidemics had d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d S r i Lankan f e r t i l i t y d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d (Sarkar, 1957). The m o r t a l i t y at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l has dec-l i n e d s i n c e 1946 due to m a l a r i a e r a d i c a t i o n , improvements i n medical s e r v i c e s , improved n u t r i t i o n , and a b e t t e r standard of l i v i n g (Meegama, 1967; Gray, 1974; Collumbine, 1950; Fernando, 1982). The Muslim m o r t a l i t y l e v e l , however, remained comparati-v e l y high u n t i l r e c e n t l y when i t began to d e c l i n e i n l i n e with FIGURE 3.5: TRENDS IN. BIRTH AND DEATH RATES (MUSLIMS) - 1900-1981 A : : BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE 1910 1920 YEAR. 1 9 j 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 I960 SOURCE: Registrar-General's Reports on V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1900-1981. 52 TABLE 3.8 FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE CRUDE DEATH RATES, 1911-1975 Years S r i Lanka Moors (Muslims) S r i Lanka 1911-1915 29.8 30.6 1916-1920 31.9 29.7 1921-1925 31 .9 27.8 1926-1930 28.5 24.3 1931-1935 27.8 24.6 1936-1940 24.2 21.4 1941-1945 23.2 20.4 1946-1950 18.3 14.6 1951-1955 13.7 11.1 1956-1960 11.7 9.5 1961-1965 9.7 9.0 1966-1970 9.3 8.8 1971-1975 8.3 8.2 SOURCE: C a l c u l a t e d from R e g i s t r a r - G e n e r a l ' s Reports on V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1911-1975. the n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n (Table 3.8). Table 3.8 c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s that the crude death r a t e of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has been higher than the n a t i o n a l l e v e l throughout t h i s c e n t u r y . Furthermore, a comparison of the Regi-s t r a r General's r e p o r t s on a g e - s p e c i f i c m o r t a l i t y r a t e i n d i -c a t e s s i m i l a r f i n d i n g s . The m o r t a l i t y r a t e s of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n have been higher than those of other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups. An examination of crude death r a t e s between 1900 and 1977 f o r the d i f f e r e n t e t h n i c groups i n d i c a t e s that Muslims (Moors) have experienced higher m o r t a l i t y than many other e t h n i c groups throughout t h i s c entury. A s i m i l a r attempt has a l s o been made to compare the a g e - s p e c i f i c m o r t a l i t y r a t e s of e t h n i c groups 53 between 1946 and 1971. I t has been found that comparatively higher r a t e s of i n f a n t , maternal, and old-age m o r t a l i t y e x i s t among Muslims both male and female. Table 3.9 i n d i c a t e s , f o r i n s t a n c e , that a comparatively higher r a t e of m o r t a l i t y e x i s t e d among Muslims throughout t h i s c e n t u r y . A c c o r d i n g to recent s t u d i e s (Meegama, 1980: 37; Waxier, et a l , 1984). The s o c i o -economic, environmental, and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s have been found to i n f l u e n c e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y . In a d d i t i o n , many s t u d i e s , both i n s i d e and o u t s i d e of S r i Lanka, have found a strong p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n between m o r t a l i t y l e v e l and the l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y (Ramakumar, 1972; Sarma, 1972; P r e s t o n , 1978; Fernando, 1982; W.F.S., 1975). T h e r e f o r e , S r i Lankan Muslim f e r t i l i t y has pro-bably been i n f l u e n c e d more by the h i g h l e v e l of m o r t a l i t y than i n the case of the other e t h n i c groups. TABLE 3.9 INFANT MORTALITY BY ETHNIC GROUPS, 1910-1964 E t h n i c Group 1910-1912 1945-1947 1962-1964 Si n h a l e s e 190 124 49.2 Tamil 229 130 52.0 a Moor (Muslim) 237 143 62.0 b A l l 202 127 55.1 SOURCE: Sarkar, 1957: 143. ESCAP, 1976: 143. a S r i Lanka Tamils only. ^ S r i Lanka Moors o n l y . One of the great achievements of independent S r i Lanka has been the e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g rate of female education (Jayawee-54 ra , 1979). The i n c r e a s i n g female l e v e l of education among S r i Lankan Muslims has been slower than at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l and remains lower than i s the case among the other e t h n i c and r e l i g i o u s groups. As Table 3.10 i n d i c a t e s , more than 82 percent of the Muslim women have had l e s s than primary education while only 4 percent were found i n higher e d u c a t i o n . The average education l e v e l i s much lower among Muslims than among other e t h n i c groups with the exception of Indian T a m i l s . My recent survey on socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Muslim u n i v e r s i t y students at P e r i d e n i y a U n i v e r s i t y and Dumbara campus i n d i c a t e s that l e s s than one quarter of Muslim students are female. Since the g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of Muslim women do not reach high l e v e l of e d ucation, t h e i r f e r t i l i t y has been d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e i r education l e v e l . The f i n d i n g s of Fernando, from h i s recent a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y in S r i Lanka s t r o n g l y supports t h i s (Fernando, 1982). TABLE 3.10 PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE LEVEL OF SCHOOLING BY ETHNIC GROUPS Et h n i c Group No School Primary Secondary T e r t i a r y S i n h a l e s e 1.8 53.0 29.6 14.7 S r i Lankan Tamil 1.2 57.0 25.8 14.9 Indian Tamil 0.7 92.0 5.1 1.0 S r i Lanka Moor 2.2 80.0 13.6 3.9 SOURCE: Computed from Weekes-Vagliani, 1980: Table 3.15. As noted e a r l i e r , female age at marriage has been i n -c r e a s i n g i n recent decades i n S r i Lanka. In a d d i t i o n , the 55 f e r t i l i t y i n c r e a s e s s t e a d i l y with female age at marriage (W.F.S., 1975). Many s t u d i e s have found that female age at marriage i s n e g a t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d with f e r t i l i t y (Abehayaratne, 1967; W.F.S., 1975). Muslims, however, marry comparatively e a r l y . An examination of common, Kandyan, and Muslim marriage r e c o r d s between 1950 and 1977 i n d i c a t e s that the average female age at marriage under Muslim law has been lower than twenty ye a r s , while the age of women i n common and Kandy marriages was on average more than twenty years ( R e g i s t r a r - G e n e r a l ' s Reports, 1950-1977) . In a d d i t i o n , the World F e r t i l i t y Survey i n d i c a t e s that 85 percent of the ever-married Muslim women had married between f i f t e e n and nineteen years of age, while 47.7, 64.8, and 68.9 percent of S i n h a l e s e , S r i Lankan Tamils, and Indian Tamils r e s p e c t i v e l y i n the same age groups. Therefore the f i r s t r e p o r t of the World F e r t i l i t y Survey concluded that high f e r t i l i t y of Muslims was caused mainly by t h e i r p r a c t i c e of e a r l y marriage (W.F.S., 1978). F i n a l l y , workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n by women may have a l s o s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d Muslim f e r t i l i t y . The same r e p o r t notes that more than 82 percent of the t o t a l ever-married Muslim women have not engaged i n any g a i n f u l employment—the highest r a t e of n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n of any e t h n i c group. Hanna and Nada-r a j a ' s f i n d i n g s on the impact of workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n and the l e v e l of education on f e r t i l i t y have been summarized i n Table 3.11. As i t shows, f e r t i l i t y decreases with women's socio-economic development, and Muslims are no exce p t i o n to 56 TABLE 3.11 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN AGED 4 5-49 BY SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS AND ETHNIC GROUPS Soc io-Economic E t h n i c Group Status S i n h a l e s e S r i Lanka Indian S r i Lanka Tamil Tamil Moor Educated & 4.15 5.24 3.50 4.10 Economically Act ive Educated & Eco- 5.18 5.26 4.87 4.29 n o m i c a l l y I n a c t i v e Uneducated & Eco- 6.83 6.34 6.02 6.67 nom i c a l l y A c t i v e Uneducated & Eco- 6.57 6.13 6.29 6.93 nom i c a l l y In-a c t i v e SOURCE: Hanna and Nadrajah, 1976. t h i s . In summary, f e r t i l i t y r a t e s among the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n has s t a r t e d to d e c l i n e l a t e r than among the other e t h n i c and r e l i g i o u s groups, and the ra t e of p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e remains comparatively h i g h . A v a i l a b l e evidence suggests that s o c i o -economic and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s may have i n f l u e n c e d Muslim f e r t -i l i t y . The a v a i l a b l e n a t i o n a l data are not adequate to f i n d out e x a c t l y what combination of f a c t o r s are i n f l u e n c i n g Muslim f e r t i l i t y . A survey of the kind undertaken f o r t h i s study f u l f i l l s a gap i n data, and w i l l enable a comprehensive analy-s i s of the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of Muslims i n S r i Lanka. 57 CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY It was found that national l e v e l s t a t i s t i c s were not adequate for an in depth study of the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of ethnic and r e l i g i o u s groups in S r i Lanka, because they do not provide individual level information on f e r t i l i t y . Therefore, a sample household survey which represents the S r i Lankan Muslim population was conducted. The methods which were used in the survey w i l l be examined in t h i s chapter. The survey was conducted out of the Geography Department of the University of Peradeniya, during the second half of 1981. The survey was conducted with the assistance of the Muslim student unions (Muslim Majlis) at both Peradeniya Uni-ver s i t y and Dumbara Campus. A number of undergraduate students from the above associations v o l u n t a r i l y assisted in every stage of t h i s survey. The purpose of this survey was to c o l l e c t f e r t i l i t y and other relevant socio-economic background information from ran-domly selected sample households. Eleven administrative d i s t r i -cts which numerically, geographically, and c u l t u r a l l y represent The Sri Lankan Muslim population were selected in order to choose eleven Muslim settlements from them. For each d i s t r i c t the Muslim population along with that population as a percen-tage of the t o t a l S r i Lankan Muslim population are given in Table 4.1. Since the Muslim settlements in many parts of the coun-58 t r y are small and l o c a t e d w i t h i n the same a d m i n i s t r a t i v e boun-d a r i e s as other r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups, i t was not p o s s i b -l e to separate out Muslim settlements and t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a t e r i s t i c s from those of the other communities using the a v a i l a b l e n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s . Moreover, the settlements were not l i s t e d c a t e g o r i c a l l y by r e l i g i o u s or e t h n i c groups i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a t i s t i c s . T h e r e f o r e , a l i s t of prominent Mus-li m s ettlements and t h e i r l o c a t i o n s i n S r i Lanka was prepared. I t was p o s s i b l e to i d e n t i f y and l o c a t e n e a r l y 500 prominent Muslim s e t t l e m e n t s . The l o c a t i o n of those settlements i s i l l u -s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 4.1 and t h e i r names are given i n Appendix 1. One settlement i n each of the eleven d i s t r i c t s was randomly s e l e c t e d by us i n g the prepared Muslim settlement l i s t . The names of the s e l e c t e d settlements are given and t h e i r l o c a t i o n i s shown i n F i g u r e 4.2. On the average f o r t y house-h o l d u n i t s were randomly s e l e c t e d from each of the settlements in order to represent the l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l Muslim p o p u l a t i o n . In some cases, a l i s t of Muslim households, which was p r o v i d e d by the l o c a l Gramasevaka, was used to s e l e c t the households while i n other cases, the v o t e r s l i s t was used. In other s e t t l e m e n t s where both household and v o t e r s l i s t were not a v a i l a b l e a l i s t of names used f o r l o c a l mosque a d m i n i s t r a t i o n was used. A q u e s t i o n n a i r e which c o n s i s t e d of d e t a i l e d q u e s t i o n s on f e r t i l i t y was prepared as a means to c o l l e c t the household i n f o r m a t i o n . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was p r e - t e s t e d i n a nearby sam-pl e settlement and then was m o d i f i e d f o r data c o l l e c t i o n . The 59 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 61 TABLE 4.1 SELECTED SAMPLE MUSLIM SETTLEMENTS ALONG WITH OTHER BACKGROUND INFORMATION Name of D i s t r i c t T o t a l D i s t . P r o p o r t i o n C u l t u r a l Settlement Musiim to the Region Populat ion T o t a l (1981 ) Musiim Po p u l a t i o n Erukkalam-piddy Mannar 44,003 2.4 North-West Puttalam Puttalam 50,243 4.3 North-West Topoor Trincomalee 75,761 6.8 Ea s t - c o a s t Kathankuddy B a t t i c a l o a 79,662 6.9 Eas t - c o a s t Nintavur Ampara i 161,754 13.9 Ea s t - c o a s t Kekunugolla Kurunegala 64,213 5.4 C e n t r a l & South Pangollamada Kandy 125,646 11.5 II Hemmathagama Ke g a l l e 36,548 3.3 II Wanahapuwa Nuwara E l i y a 15,791 1 . 1 I! Weiigama Matara 16,853 1 .6 II Muthuwela Colombo 168,956 20.6 Colombo T o t a l 839,430 77.8 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. f u l l t e x t of the mo d i f i e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e i s given i n Appendix 2. The m o d i f i e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e c o n s i s t e d of e i g h t major p a r t s . The contents of those major p a r t s are as f o l l o w s : (1) l o c a t i o n and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of households; (2) general c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of household members e.g. age, sex, m a r i t a l s t a t u s , e t c . ; (3) sour-ce and amount of household income ; (4) type of house; (5) h e a l t h c o n d i t i o n of household members and type of treatment ; (6) s o c i a l a c t i v i t i e s of household members; (7) in f o r m a t i o n on f e r t i l i t y ; (8) m i g r a t i o n . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was o r i g i n a l l y w r i t t e n i n the Tamil language which almost a l l the respondents 62 were able to read and understand. The survey was conducted with the a s s i s t a n c e of s e l e c t e d Muslim undergraduate students. Among the undergraduate students who v o l u n t a r i l y o f f e r e d t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e i n the survey, 16 of them , 12 males and 4 females, were s e l e c t e d to a s s i s t i n the household data c o l l e c t i o n . One student or i n some cases, two students were assigned to each of the eleven s e t t l e m e n t s . In most cases, the students who were assig n e d to a p a r t i c u l a r settlement were from the se t t l e m e n t s i n which the survey was being conducted. The s e l e c t e d students were given d e t a i l e d i n s t r u c t i o n s r egarding the techniques of conducting a household survey. In a d d i t i o n , they a l l p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the p i l o t survey. The survey i n each settlement was i n i t i a t e d by me and continued by student a s s i s t a n t s . During the f i r s t v i s i t , an attempt was made to e s t a b l i s h a f r i e n d l y r e l a t i o n s h i p with the l o c a l people i n each s e t t l e m e n t . For example, we accepted an i n v i t a t i o n from the l o c a l school to d e l i v e r a p u b l i c speech to i t s students and we made use of t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y to convey to the l o c a l people our purpose f o r coming to the v i l l a g e . In a d d i t i o n , we a l s o met l o c a l r e l i g i o u s and p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s who subsequently gave v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g the socio-economic and h i s t o r i -c a l c h a r a c t e r of the se t t l e m e n t . We a l s o surveyed the geograp-h i c a l and the socio-economic c o n d i t i o n of the settlement as w e l l . When we completed the background survey, we began the household survey using a random sample s e l e c t i o n . Nearly ten households i n each settlement were in t e r v i e w e d d u r i n g my f i r s t 6 3 v i s i t to the se t t l e m e n t . In order to assure that the student a s s i s t a n t s understood the i n t e r v i e w i n g techniques p r o p e r l y , I accompanied them to every household during the f i r s t v i s i t . Most of the necessary i n f o r m a t i o n was recorded by i n t e r v i e w i n g the head of the household who was u s u a l l y the husband. The inf o r m a t i o n on f e r t i l i t y was d i r e c t l y c o l l e c t e d from the female member. The in t e r v i e w e e s were c o r d i a l and c o - o p e r a t i v e i n a l -most a l l ca s e s . One of the main reasons f o r the s u c c e s s f u l i n t e r v i e w s was the presence of a student a s s i s t a n t from the same settlement who were i n many i n s t a n c e s blood r e l a t i o n s of the i n t e r v i e w e e s . The survey was completed as planned, however, some prob-lems which were encountered d u r i n g the i n t e r v i e w s are worth-while mentioning. Some of the respondents were not able to give accurate i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e i r date of b i r t h , source and amount of income, e t c . In a d d i t i o n , o l d female respondents c o u l d not remember some i n f o r m a t i o n on e a r l y age pregnancies. Moreover, some mothers were not happy to d i s c u s s t h e i r c h i l d r e n who d i e d d u r i n g pregnancies or l a t e r . Those and other problems, however, were s o l v e d by ask i n g both d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t q u e s t i o n s on these matters. One problem which was not s o l v e d i n the f i e l d was the i n f o r m a t i o n on the use and the d e s i r e to use modern c o n t r a c e p t i o n methods. Many female respondents were r e l u c t a n t to d i s c u s s those matters i n the presence of male i n t e r v i e w e r s . However, i n those s e t t l e m e n t s , where female a s s i s t a n t s were used, we were ab l e to get r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n on f a m i l y p l a n -ning methods. 64 Each questionaire was reviewed in the f i e l d after the interview. However, when the entire survey was completed, ques-tionnaires were once again re-checked and among them the incom-pleted questionnaires were excluded. F i n a l l y , 323 examples of household information (questionnaires) from eleven settlements were selected for the analysis. Those selected questionnaires were manually tabulated at the University of Peradeniya with the assistance of undergraduate students. This manually tabu-lated household information was coded according to the SPSS instruction and made available for further computer analysis at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia in Canada. The following steps were taken in the computer analysis. The study began by running a series of frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n tables for 323 cases. It was possible to i d e n t i f y the general c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of surveyed population by using frequency d i s t -ribution tables. Secondly, the analysis of cross tabulation between selected background variables and f e r t i l i t y was done to compare the bivariate r e l a t i o n . The findings of cross tabula-tion have been compared and confirmed with Pearson co r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t analysis. Thirdly, the study moved to multivariate analysis; in this section, multivariate cross tabulation and P a r t i a l correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s have been done to determine selected background variables which were s i g n i f i c a n t l y corre-lated with f e r t i l i t y . F i n a l l y , stepwise multiple regression which provides beta c o e f f i c i e n t for path a n a l y t i c a l model, was done. The strength of each of the fi v e selected background variables to f e r t i l i t y was determined by using path analysis. 65 CHAPTER 5 STUDY AREA The study area comprises eleven S r i Lankan Muslim s e t -tlements. The word 'settlements' r e f e r s here to a group of households that l i v e together and t h i s i n c l u d e s v i l l a g e s , g r a-masevaka d i v i s i o n s , and urban wards. Freestone (1974) c a t e g o r i z e d human sett l e m e n t s i n t o s i x groups a c c o r d i n g to g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n and economic fun-c t i o n . The f u n c t i o n of any settlement i s not only economic but a l s o s o c i o - b e h a v i o u r a l . The members of a settlement must c o l l a -borate with one another to achieve t h e i r g o a l s and to s a t i s f y t h e i r needs. In t h i s p r o c e s s , the members of s o c i e t y are ex-posed to s e v e r a l s o c i a l v a l u e s , a s p i r a t i o n s and behaviours w i t h i n an e x i s t i n g s o c i e t y . In t h i s regard, S r i Lankan Muslim settlements are unique i n c h a r a c t e r and i n f u n c t i o n as w e l l . For example, although the Muslim se t t l e m e n t s are spread a c r o s s v a r i o u s c u l t u r a l and s u b - c u l t u r a l environments, they remain d i s t i n c t i n that they p r o v i d e a r e l i g i o - c u l t u r a l environment to t h e i r members. 5.1 Muslim Settlements and T h e i r R e l i g i o - C u l t u r a l  Envi ronment S r i Lanka i s a h i g h l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d and complex s o c i e t y with respect to the r i c h n e s s of i t s c u l t u r e s , and r e l i g i o u s and s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s (Yalman,1967:3). There are two d i s t i n c t e t h n i c and c u l t u r a l g r o u p s — t h e S i n h a l e s e and the Tamils--who form the b a s i s of the c u l t u r a l d i v e r s i t y of t h i s s o c i e t y . The 66 S i n h a l e s e and the Tamils claimed descendancy from d i s t i n c t r a c i a l s t o c k s , from the Aryans and the D r a v i d i a n s r e s p e c t i v e l y (Samaraweera, 1977: 86). In a d d i t i o n , the Sin h a l e s e embraced Buddhism and the Tamils l a r g e l y r e t a i n e d the Hindu f a i t h . The Si n h a l e s e community i s d i v i s i b l e i n t o low-country and Kandyan s u b - c u l t u r e s (Fernando, 1979: 5). The Tamils, on the other hand, are d i v i d e d i n t o S r i Lankan and Indian Tamils; the S r i Lankan Tamils are f u r t h e r i d e n t i f i e d as Northers or E a s t e r n e r s . A l l these d i v i s i o n s of Si n h a l e s e and Tamils are i n turn s u b d i -v i d e d i n t o a v a r i e t y of c a s t e s (Yalman, 1967: 12). Thus, Ryan (1950) c a t e g o r i z e d S r i Lanka i n t o seven major regions on the b a s i s of c u l t u r a l e t h n i c c r i t e r i a and p a t t e r n s of community o r g a n i z a t i o n (Ryan, 1950). The S r i Lankan Muslims, who share a common s o c i e t y with other e t h n o - c u l t u r a l groups (the S i n h a l e s e and the T a m i l s ) , i d e n t i f y themselves and are recognized by others as a d i s t i n c t r e l i g i o - c u l t u r a l ( e t h n i c ) group. At the same time, f o r obvious reasons, there are v a r i a t i o n s i n c u l t u r a l behaviours among the Muslims themselves a c c o r d i n g to whether they l i v e i n a Sinha-l e s e or Tamil r e g i o n . I have d i v i d e d S r i Lanka i n t o four major c u l t u r a l r e -gions ( F i g u r e 5.1) a c c o r d i n g to the dominant c u l t u r e (the Si n h a l e s e and the Tamils) and the d i s t i n c t o c c u p a t i o n a l and c u l t u r a l behaviour of the Muslims themselves i n those r e s p e c t -i v e r e g i o n s . The f i r s t two r e g i o n s , the North West and the East c o a s t , are predominantly Tamil i n c u l t u r e ; the other two are predominantly S i n h a l e s e i n c u l t u r e . In the North West r e g i o n , 67 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 68 the Muslims have l a r g e l y been i n f l u e n c e d by South Indian T a m i l -Muslim c u l t u r e . On the East c o a s t , Muslim c u l t u r e i s much c l o s e r to the dominant S r i Lankan Tamil c u l t u r e of t h i s r e g i o n (McGilvray, 1974). Nearly 70 percent of the t o t a l Muslim popu-l a t i o n l i v e s i n the S i n h a l e s e c u l t u r a l areas. To some extent, the S i n h a l e s e c u l t u r e a l s o has i n f l u e n c e d the S r i Lankan I s l a -mic c u l t u r e . In s h o r t , the c u l t u r e of the S r i Lankan Muslims i s the combination of Islam i c as w e l l as the l o c a l (mainly Tamil and to some extent S i n h a l e s e ) c u l t u r e s . However, Muslims have m o d i f i e d many aspects of the Tamil and S i n h a l e s e c u l t u r e s i n l i g h t of the teachings of Islam, and made them t h e i r own. T h i s has been evidenced i n many other non-Islamic c o u n t r i e s as w e l l ( I s r a e l i , 1979; Ahmed, 1979; Mines, 1981). A Muslim settlement r e g a r d l e s s of i t s number of i n h a b i -t a n t s p r o v i d e s a r e l i g i o u s and c u l t u r a l environment f o r i t s members. A necessary element of a Muslim settlment i s a mosque, a c e n t r e f o r prayer, whose i n t e r a c t i o n among the members of the community takes p l a c e s e v e r a l times per day. The number of f a m i l i e s who belong to a mosque v a r i e s from f i v e to more than f i v e thousand. In other words, Muslims p r e f e r t o l i v e i n an e s t a b l i s h e d Muslim environment, or f a i l i n g t h a t , to c r e a t e such an environment wherever they l i v e , r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r numbers. In a d d i t i o n , a number of r e l i g i o u s i n s t i t u t i o n s , such as A r a b i c s c h o o l s , h a t h i court e t c , p l a y a more important r o l e w i t h i n the community than do t h e i r c o u n t e r p a r t s among the other e t h n i c groups i n S r i Lanka. For example, the mosque a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and t r u s t e e s , u s u a l l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of l a r g e f a m i l i e s or c l a n s , 69 make i n f o r m a l laws and r e g u l a t i o n s not only concerning the r e l i g i o u s aspects of the community, but a l s o the s o c i a l and economic as p e c t s as w e l l . The a d m i n i s t r a t o r s implement these r u l e s and r e g u l a t i o n s whenever necessary. T h e r e f o r e , i t has been n o t i c e d that the formal and i n f o r m a l government i n s t i t u -t i o n s , such as v i l l a g e c o u n c i l s , r u r a l development boards, e t c . , are l e s s e f f e c t i v e or l e s s important than the r e l i g i o u s i n s t i t u t i o n s i n many Muslim settlements i n S r i Lanka. In a d d i -t i o n , the 1886 Mohammedian Marriage R e g i s t r a t i o n Ordinance f a c i l i t a t e d t h e i r own marriage court ( h a t h i c o u r t ) to sol v e marriage d i s p u t e s a c c o r d i n g to Islami c law. 5.2 Surveyed Settlements F i g u r e 3.2 i l l u s t r a t e s the l o c a t i o n of the surveyed Muslim se t t l e m e n t s i n S r i Lanka. The eleven surveyed s e t t l e -ments represent eleven a d m i n i s t r a t i v e d i s t r i c t s which are spread throughout the count r y . The m a j o r i t y of the surveyed s e t t l e m e n t s ( s i x ) are l o c a t e d i n the c e n t r a l and Southern S i n h a l e s e c u l t u r a l areas while three other settlements are l o c a t e d i n the East coast and two in the North and the North West r e g i o n s . Colombo d i s t r i c t has been represented by Muthuwe-l a which i s one of the suburbs of Colombo c i t y . G e o g r a p h i c a l l y , as F i g u r e 3.2 i n d i c a t e s , the surveyed s e t t l e m e n t s are d i s t r i -buted i n wet and dry zones and i n h i l l y and c o a s t a l areas. E c o n o m i c a l l y , four out of eleven s e t t l e m e n t s are engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r e . Among them, Nintavur and Topoor are engaged i n r i c e c u l t i v a t i o n while Kekunugolla i n coconut and Wanahapuwa i n a mixture of tea p l a n t a t i o n employment and vegetable gardening. 70 On the other hand, Weligama i s a business community; most of i t s inhabitants are engaged in some sort of business a c t i v i t i e s which range from large scale r e t a i l business to sales workers. In addition, although the other non-agricultural settlements (see Figure 5.2) are not categorized as business settlements, a proportion of the workforce in those settlements are engaged in unspecified business a c t i v i t i e s . At the same time, in Puttalam and in Erukkalanpiddy, a small porportion of the t o t a l workfor-ce is engaged in fishing while in Pangollamada and in Henatha-gama some are engaged in small scale a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s . The economic a c t i v i t i e s of Muthuwella are greatly influenced by Colombo c i t y . In almost a l l the settlements, some young house-holds headed by school teachers and c l e r i c a l employees have been found. Seven out of the eleven settlements are considered to be rural according to the l o c a l government d e f i n i t i o n . However, since the economy of some of those settlements i s based on non-primary economic a c t i v i t i e s and as these s e t t l e -ments are located in close proximity to urban centres, they have been categorized as semi-urban centres in t h i s study (Figure 5.2) Most of the surveyed settlements have been long e s t a b l i -shed. For example, Puttalam and Weligama are known as some of the e a r l i e s t Muslim settlements on this island, while Pangolla mada, Hemathagama, Kathankuddy , and Erukkalampiddy have served as centres for Muslim traders for centuries. Likewise, the history of the East coast a g r i c u l t u r a l settlements (including Nintavur and Topoor) go back to the h i s t o r i c a l migration 71 FIGURE 5.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SURVEYED MUSLIM SETTLEMENTS C u l t u r a l Area Settlement Economic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s S i n h a l e s e Area Kekunugolla Wanahapuwa Muthuwela Weiigama Hemathagama Pangollamada A g r i c u l t u r a l & Rural A g r i c u l t u r a l & Rural N o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban N o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban N o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban N o n - a g r u c l u t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban Tamil Area Nintavur Topoor Kathankuddy Puttalam Erukkalampiddy A g r i c u l t u r a l & Rural A g r i c u l t u r a l & Rural N o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban N o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban N o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l & Urban and Semi-urban SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. NOTES: The s e t t l e m e n t s of Muthuwella, Weligama, Kathan-kuddy, and Puttalam are urban c e n t r e s above the rank of town c o u n c i l . F u r t h e r , we should note t h a t Puttalam i s l o c a t e d i n the S i n h a l e s e c u l t u r a l a r ea. of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n from the West coast a f t e r i t s persecu-t i o n by the Portuguese c o l o n i a l power during the 16th century. These communities have t r a d i t i o n a l l y maintained f r i e n d l y r e l a -t i o n s with S i n h a l e s e and Tamil s e t t l e m e n t s . The Muslims are s t i l l c a l l e d as 'Marakalayo' by S i n h a l e s e and 'Sonakar' by Tamils s i g n i f y i n g t h e i r h i s t o r i c a l r o l e as f r i e n d l y t r a d e r s . The surveyed Muslim se t t l e m e n t s are r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the c u l t u r a l and economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the other Muslim 72 settlements and i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e c u l t u r a l r e g i o ns and admin-i s t r a t i v e d i s t r i c t s . For example, the surveyed East coast s e t -tlements--Nintavur, Topoor and Kathankuddy--are r e p r e s e n t a t i v e both c u l t u r a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y . Weligama, in the South coast of S r i Lanka, not only represents the nature of business a c t i -v i t y of the m a j o r i t y of the Muslim settlements i n the Matara d i s t r i c t but, to some extent, a l s o represents some of the other neighbouring d i s t r i c t s such as G a l l e and K a l u t u r a as w e l l . Likewise, a s i m i l a r p a t t e r n has been i d e n t i f i e d among other surveyed s e t t l e m e n t s . However, i n t e r e s t i n g l y , those surveyed settlements a l s o vary i n d i v i d u a l l y i n c u l t u r a l behaviour, i n economic a c t i v i t i e s and i n other c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s i n c e they are spread over a l a r g e g e o g r a p h i c a l area. For example, in the East c o a s t , Topoor and Nintavur are r u r a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l v i l l a g e s while Kathankuddy i s urban and engaged i n mostly n o n - a g r i c u l t u -r a l economic a c t i v i t i e s . 5.3 Surveyed Households Table 5.1 g i v e s the t o t a l number of households and the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of each surveyed settlement. On average t h i r t y households from each of the eleven surveyed settlements were int e r v i e w e d ; g i v i n g a t o t a l of 323 households out of a popula-t i o n of 2098 of the eleven s e t t l e m e n t s . A l l the households are Muslim. However, n e a r l y n i n e t y percent of the t o t a l surveyed p o p u l a t i o n are S r i Lankan Moors while the r e s t are the decen-dents of Indian Moors who have mainly been found i n the Wanaha-puwa e s t a t e s e t t l e m e n t . In a d d i t i o n , the male r a t i o f o r 73 TABLE 5.1 NUMBER OF SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS AND SURVEYED POPULATION ACCORDING TO THE SETTLEMENTS Settlement Surveyed Households Surveyed P o p u l a t i o n Topoor 30 193 Kathankuddy 28 1 72 Nintavur 30 1 58 Erukkalampiddy 30 1 66 Puttalam 30 1 92 Muthuwella 28 208 Weligama 27 1 97 Kekunagolla 32 1 99 Hemathagama 27 208 Pangollamada 31 199 Wanahapuwa 30 206 T o t a l 323 2098 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i s more or l e s s the n a t i o n a l average. The age s t r u c t u r e v a r i e s from settlement to settlement; however, 48.3 percent of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i s below twenty years of age. Although the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n i s homogeneous i n i t s r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n , the socio-economic and demographic cha-r a c t e r i s t i c s vary g r e a t l y among settlements and w i t h i n the settlements themselves. 5.3.1 Head of Household The person who has more say i n the f a m i l y d e c i s i o n making whi l e , i n many cas e s , a l s o earning the l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l family income, i s c o n s i d e r e d the head of the household. According to the survey, 88 percent of household heads were husbands or f a t h e r s . Mothers and sons ( u s u a l l y e l d e r 74 sons) c o n s t i t u t e d about 8 and 4 percent of the t o t a l households r e s p e c t i v e l y . The r o l e of the husband, economically and otherwise, i s very important i n the household d e c i s i o n making. The c h a r a c t e -r i s t i c s of the husband as the head of the f a m i l y v a r i e s from household to household. F i r s t l y , the age d i s t r i b u t i o n v a r i e s from around t w e n t y - f i v e years to more than s i x t y y e ars. Howe-ver, the v a r i a t i o n i n the age c o r r e l a t e s with the f a m i l y types. For example, the age of the husband i n the nuclear f a m i l y i s l e s s than that i n j o i n t f a m i l y households. Secondly, the educa-t i o n l e v e l a l s o v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g to age, with the young being more h i g h l y educated than t h e i r e l d e r s . However, the average e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l f o r husbands i s much lower than the n a t i o n a l average f o r a l l e t h n i c groups. For example, more than h a l f of the t o t a l heads of the households (husbands) have had only between one and f i v e years of education i n t h i s survey. Howe-ver, the e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l f o r the husbands v a r i e s from s e t t l e -ment to s e t t l e m e n t . In a d d i t i o n , the employment p a t t e r n s of husbands have been g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l . About 18 percent have been c a t e g o r i z e d as p r o f e s s i o n a l s ; they are mostly school t e a c h e r s . A female as the head of the household i s not unusual i n t h i s s o c i e t y . However, i n most cases, the circumstances i n which the female becomes the head of the household i s e i t h e r a f t e r the death of the husband or a s e p a r a t i o n from the hus-band. In both cases, she would be the main income earner and d e c i s i o n maker in the f a m i l y . The study i n d i c a t e s that many 75 widows lead t h e i r f a m i l i e s with some s o r t of wage employment. On the other hand, i f the e l d e r son i s an a d u l t at the death of the f a t h e r , the son leads the f a m i l y economically although the f a m i l y d e c i s i o n making, to some extent, remains i n the.hands of the mother. 5.3.2 Family Members The survey i n d i c a t e s that the average f a m i l y s i z e i s g e n e r a l l y high among S r i Lankan Muslims. Family members i n c l u d e spouses, c h i l d r e n , and other f a m i l y and non-family members who l i v e i n the household. The average f a m i l y s i z e i s 6.2 members fo r the 323 surveyed households. More than 64 percent of the t o t a l households have f i v e or more members while another 11 percent have nine or more members, although the f a m i l y s i z e v a r i e s from settlement to settlement (Appendix 3). The s e t t l e -ments which are l o c a t e d i n the C e n t r a l and Southern c u l t u r a l r egions have a l a r g e r f a m i l y s i z e than the o t h e r s . The m a j o r i t y of the fami l y members are unmarried c h i l d r e n . However, in some cases, household's parents, grandparents, in-laws, widowed s i s t e r s , unmarried b r o t h e r s and s i s t e r s and other non-family members are a l s o i n c l u d e d i n the household. The r o l e of women in t h i s s o c i e t y i s much more important than i t has been d e s c r i b e d i n some other s t u d i e s . The marriage t r a d i t i o n i s s t r o n g , as evidenced by the f a c t that no separated f a m i l y has been found i n t h i s study. Although d i v o r c e can be e a s i l y obtained, i t s frequency i s very low among a l l s e c t i o n s of the survey p o p u l a t i o n . A widow or d i v o r c e e can remarry a f t e r completing her p e r i o d of Iddat, i . e . , four months a f t e r the 76 death of or d i v o r c e from her husband. Widow remarriage i s q u i t e p r e v a l e n t and i s encouraged by a l l Muslims. On the other hand, the in c i d e n c e of polygamous marriage among the surveyed house-holds i s almost n i l . People r e a c t very unfavourably to a person who marries while h i s f i r s t wife i s s t i l l l i v i n g . C h i l d r e n are c o n s i d e r e d as a s s e t s by the p a r e n t s , as t h e i r r o l e i n the f a m i l y economic a c t i v i t y i s very important. As noted e a r l i e r , the m a j o r i t y of the surveyed households are e i t h e r dependent on primary economic a c t i v i t i e s ( a g r i c u l t u r e or f i s h i n g ) or some s o r t of business a c t i v i t i e s f o r t h e i r l i v e l i -hood. In both s e c t o r s , c h i l d r e n , r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r age, c o n t r i b u t e t h e i r s e r v i c e to the f a m i l y economy. I t has been noted d u r i n g the f i e l d survey t h a t the c h i l d r e n of a l l ages drop out of school t e m p o r a r i l y or permanently i n order to a s s i s t t h e i r parents i n a g r i c u l t u r a l or business a c t i v i t i e s . Thus male c h i l d r e n are c o n s i d e r e d more important than female c h i l d r e n f o r economic reasons. In a d d i t i o n , parents p r e f e r comparatively higher education f o r male c h i l d r e n than f o r f e -male c h i l d r e n . 5.3.3 Socio-Economic Status The s o c i a l s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of many South A s i a n s o c i e t i e s i s based on the c a s t e system (Dumont, 1980; S r i n i v a s , 1976), and - S r i Lanka i s no exception to t h i s (Fernando, 1979:29). However, the t r a d i t i o n a l c a s t e system has not been found among S r i Lankan Muslims. Th e r e f o r e , the s o c i a l s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of the surveyed Muslim households w i l l be analysed a c c o r d i n g to the 77 income l e v e l and socio-economic s t a t u s of the i n d i v i d u a l house-h o l d . The survey p r o v i d e s comprehensive i n f o r m a t i o n on the household's t o t a l income, source of income, and the r e c i p i e n t of the income. F i r s t l y , the household's t o t a l income v a r i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y . For example, about 52 percent of the t o t a l households r e c e i v e d between 1,000 to 10,000 rupees per year. Another 25 percent r e c e i v e d between 11,000 to 20,000 rupees. Secondly, the source of income f o r a number of surveyed house-holds i s based mainly on the head of household's main income. However, i n a g r i c u l t u r a l s e t t l e m e n t s , some a d d i t i o n a l income had been r e c e i v e d from the s a l e of c a t t l e , gardening, and land l e a s i n g , while i n the business s e c t o r s income from v e h i c l e s and r e n t . F i n a l l y , f a m i l y members other than the head of household, wife and c h i l d r e n ( e s p e c i a l l y male c h i l d r e n ) , c o n t r i b u t e a s i g n i f i c a n t amount of s e r v i c e to the fam i l y economy s p e c i a l l y in primary s e c t o r s and business a c t i v i t i e s . The surveyed Muslim households are d i v i d e d i n t o four major s o c i a l groups (Table 5.2). The c r i t e r i a f o r the c l a s s i f i -c a t i o n i s based on the socio-economic standard of households, i n c l u d i n g t h e i r l e v e l of income. As Table 5.2 i n d i c a t e s , about 40 percent of the t o t a l households are in the lower s o c i o -economic c l a s s while only 7 percent are i n the upper s o c i o -economic c l a s s . In a d d i t i o n , a c o n s i d e r a b l e p r o p o r t i o n of hou-seholds (38.4 percent) has been found to be i n the lower middle c l a s s . On the other hand, the percentage of s o c i a l groups i n each settlement v a r i e s g r e a t l y , and the s e t t l e m e n t s or house-78 holds engaged i n non-primary a c t i v i t i e s are economically bet-t e r - o f f than the others . For example, Weligama, a business settlement, i s comparatively r i c h e r than many a g r i c u l t u r a l s e t t l e m e n t s , such as Wanahapuwa, and Kakunugolla. Moreover, the survey i n f o r m a t i o n on housing c o n d i t i o n s , usage of pipe water and e l e c t i c i t y i n d i c a t e that s o c i a l s t r a t i f i c a t i o n v a r i e s grea-t l y w i t h i n the settlement i t s e l f (Appendix 3). 5.4 The Determinants of F e r t i l i t y F e r t i l i t y i s the number of a c t u a l l i v e b i r t h s to a woman during her c h i l d - b e a r i n g years. Fecundity, on the other hand, i s the c a p a c i t y to have a number of b i r t h s (Jones, 1974 : 111). The f e r t i l i t y behaviour of a p a r t i c u l a r s o c i e t y i s a f f e c t e d by a wide v a r i e t y of p s y c h o l o g i c a l , socio-economic, and p h y s i o l o -g i c a l f a c t o r s . Although f e r t i l i t y i s an i n d i v i d u a l behaviour, the behaviour of i n d i v i d u a l s i s guided by the norms of the group to which they belong. T h e r e f o r e , in t h i s s e c t i o n , r e l e -vant socio-economic and demographic v a r i a b l e s which i n f l u e n c e the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of Muslims of S r i Lanka w i l l be iden-t i f i e d from the surveyed data f o r the purpose of f u r t h e r a n a l y -s i s . The n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s on f e r t i l i t y i n S r i Lanka i n d i -cate a comparatively higher r a t e f o r S r i Lankan Muslims (Chap-t e r 3). The survey data i n d i c a t e that the mean l i v e b i r t h per ever married women i s 5.1 among Muslims, while the n a t i o n a l average i s (W.F.S., 1978). In a d d i t i o n , as Table 5.3 i n d i -c a t e s , about 25 percent of the t o t a l households have had seven or more pregnancies u n t i l the date of survey. However, these 79 TABLE 5.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE SURVEYED HOUSEHOLDS Socio-Economic Number of Percentages Status Households Lower 1 32 40.9 Lower middle 1 24 38.4 Upper middle 45 13.9 Upper 22 6.8 T o t a l 323 100.00 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. are v a r i a t i o n s i n f e r t i l i t y l e v e l among the surveyed s e t t l e -ments. For example, Weligama, with an average of 6.63 pregnan-c i e s , has the highest r a t e while Kathankuddy, with 3.68 pregna-n c i e s has the lowest (Appendix 3). In a d d i t i o n , the pregnancy r a t e s vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y among e d u c a t i o n a l , o c c u p a t i o n a l , and s o c i a l groups as w e l l . TABLE 5.3 THE NUMBER OF TOTAL PREGNANCIES OF SURVEYED POPULATION Number of Number of Percent Frequency Households 1-2 60 18.2 3-4 89 26.8 5-6 90 29.8 7-8 48 14.5 9-10 24 7.2 11 and more 1 2 3.6 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 80 The s t a t u s of women has been found to be c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to f e r t i l i t y behaviour i n many s o c i e t i e s i n developing coun-t r i e s (United Nations, 1975). In a d d i t i o n , i t has been s t a t e d that the p r e v a i l i n g low s t a t u s of Muslim women has been the cause of high f e r t i l i t y among t h i s community i n many c o u n t r i e s (Youssef, 1978; Allman, 1978). Moreover, the equal e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s , economic independence, and s o c i a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women i n a s o c i e t y a l l d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e the f e r t i l i t y behaviour. While S r i Lanka has been known f o r equal education o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r males and females f o r many decades, the ed u c a t i o n a l l e v e l f o r the S r i Lankan Muslim males and females i s comparatively low (see Chapter 3). A low l e v e l of a s p i r a t i o n f o r higher education f o r both male and female c h i l d r e n among Muslims i s due to r e l i g i o u s r e s i s t a n c e d u r i n g the l a s t c o l o n i a l p e r i o d (see Chapter 1). A number of Muslims s t i l l b e l i e v e that educating t h e i r c h i l d r e n i n non-Muslim schools would l e a d to the s o c i o - r e l i g i o u s and c u l t u r a l d e s t r u c t i o n of t h e i r s o c i e t y . Although t h i s a t t i t u d e has been changing i n recent years, to some extent, i t s t i l l remains s t r o n g with regard to females. Not only are females di s c o u r a g e d from a t t e n d i n g non-Muslim schools but a l s o c o - e d u c a t i o n a l s c h o o l s . Thus, the survey i n d i -c a t e s that one h a l f of the t o t a l women who were interv i e w e d f o r f e r t i l i t y i n f o r m a t i o n were i l l i t e r a t e (the a b i l i t y to read the Holy Qur'an i s not co n s i d e r e d as a sign of l i t e r a c y ) . In a d d i -t i o n , as Table 5.4 i n d i c a t e s , the m a j o r i t y of the women have had l e s s than grade f i v e e d u c a t i o n . However, t h i s has been 81 changing in recent years. For example, i n the survey, the ed u c a t i o n a l l e v e l f o r c h i l d r e n who completed s c h o o l i n g does not show any s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between males and females. On the other hand, as expected, the r a t e s of l i t e r a c y and the l e v e l of education f o r wives vary among the surveyed s e t t l e -ment. For example, some se t t l e m e n t s (Erukkalampiddy, Puttalam, and Muthuwela) have the h i g e s t l i t e r a c y r a t e s (more than 90 percent) while some others (Weligama, Pangollamada and N i n t a -vur) have very low l e v e l s - - l e s s than 30 percent (Appendix 3). Importantly, the settlements which had higher l i t e r a c y r a t e s and e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s f o r females a l s o had separate high schools f o r g i r l s . The female workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s very low among S r i Lankan Muslims. For example, as Table 5.5 i n d i c a t e s , only about 10 percent of the t o t a l women f o r whom f e r t i l i t y , data were recorded f o r f e r t i l i t y a n a l y s i s are re p o r t e d to be working TABLE 5.4 THE WIFE'S LEVEL OF SCHOOLING L e v e l of S c h o o l i n g Number of Cases Percent No s c h o o l i n g 54 16.7 Grade 1-5 121 37.5 Grade 6-9 95 29.4 Grade 10-11 52 16.1 More than grade 11 01 0.3 T o t a l 323 100.00 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 82 o u t s i d e of t h e i r homes. On the other hand, more than 70 percent of them claimed that they were not even p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e i r household economic a c t i v i t i e s such as a g r i c u l t u r e , business e t c . When compared with the World F e r t i l i t y Survey General Report (1978), the workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n of Muslim women i n the survey i s very low. T h i s i s due to the low e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r women and importantly the d i s t a n t l o c a t i o n and d i f f e r e n t environment of the workforce. For example, wo-men's workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n both a g r i c u l t u r a l and business a c t i v i t i e s were avoided because the working p l a c e s , paddy f i e l d s and business f i r m s , were l o c a t e d f a r away from the Muslim settlements which u s u a l l y were surrounded by non-Muslim s e t t l e m e n t s . T h e r e f o r e , women's work p a r t i c i p a t i o n o u t s i d e the home has not been s o c i a l l y esteemed. However, i n an extreme economic s i t u a t i o n , the women do work o u t s i d e or i n s i d e the home in order to i n c r e a s e t o t a l f a m i l y income. A good example i s Wanahapuwa which i s one of the poorest settlements i n the survey where more than 70 percent of the women work o u t s i d e the home. Since the female c h i l d r e n of Muslim households terminate t h e i r education e a r l y and they do not e f f e c t i v e l y c o n t r i b u t e to the household economy, t h e i r marriage i s arranged by t h e i r parents at an e a r l y age. For example, the average age at mar-r i a g e f o r the surveyed female p o p u l a t i o n i s 19. Moreover, the e a r l y age at marriage f o r females i s p r e v a l e n t among most of the surveyed settlements (Appendix 3). A c c o r d i n g to t h i s , near-l y three q u a r t e r s of the women surveyed married before twenty 83 years of age. In a d d i t i o n , about 40 percent married before seventeen years of age. The n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s on marriage age i n d i c a t e that on average Muslim women marry four years e a r l i e r than does the average S r i Lankan woman. Two other v a r i a b l e s which were examined among the sur-veyed households are i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y . Infant morta-l i t y r e f e r s to the death of a c h i l d w i t h i n the f i r s t twelve months of i t s l i f e ; c h i l d m o r t a l i t y , on the other hand, i s death w i t h i n the f i r s t f i v e y e a rs. Both measurements not only p r e d i c t the f e r t i l i t y trends but a l s o i n d i c a t e the s o c i o -economic c o n d i t i o n s of the surveyed household. Table 5.6 summa-r i z e s the data on i n f a n t and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y f o r the 323 house-h o l d s . According to Table 5.6, 67 out of the 323 households have l o s t from 1 to 100 percent of the t o t a l p r e g n a ncies. Moreover, a s i m i l a r p a t t e r n has been found among most of the surveyed settlements but f o r Puttalam and Hemathagama i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e s were .001 per l i v e b i r t h s . F i n a l l y , as p r e v i o u -s l y r e p o r t e d , s e v e r a l socio-economic and demographic v a r i a b l e s such as husband's education l e v e l , f a m i l y economic s t a t u s , average b i r t h i n t e r v a l , e t c . have a l s o been found to be impor-tant f a c t o r s i n t h i s study. 5.5 V a r i a b l e s and T h e i r Measurements F i n a l l y , twenty s i x socio-economic and demographic va-r i a b l e s were s e l e c t e d f o r f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s of the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of Muslims. Table 5.7 presents the names and the measurements of the s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s . Among the above 26 v a r i a b l e s , the number of pregnancies 84 TABLE 5.5 THE WIFE'S WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION Type of Work Number of Cases Percent Housekeeping only 227 70.3 Housekeeping & h e l p i n g to household economy 50 15.5 Housekeeping & small income earning work at home 1 1 3.4 Labourer 24 7.4 Own work 6 1.8 Goverment employee 5 1 .6 T o t a l 323 100.00 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. TABLE 5.6 INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY Percentage of Percentage of Percentage of Death Infant Death C h i l d Death None 79.8 74.4 1 -24 11.7 14.8 25-29 5.4 7.2 50-74 0.6 0.9 75 and more 2.4 2.7 T o t a l 100.00 100.00 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. of a women whether w i t h i n the present marriage or previous marriage i s c o n s i d e r e d as the dependent v a r i a b l e . The pregnan-c i e s not r e s u l t i n g in l i v e b i r t h are not i n c l u d e d while the i n f a n t s t h at d i e a f t e r b i r t h are i n c l u d e d i n t h i s measurement. 85 The other socio-economic and demographic v a r i a b l e s are c o n s i -dered as background v a r i a b l e s . Among them, the wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , her age at marriage, socio-economic s t a t u s , and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y and c o n s i d e r e d as i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s or intermediate v a r i a b l e s . TABLE 5.7 VARIABLES AND MEASUREMENTS USED IN THE ANALYSIS V a r i a b l e Measurement Number Name 1 Family S i z e 2 Wife's L i t e r a c y (read, w r i t e and understand at l e a s t one language) 3 Husband's L e v e l of Sc h o o l i n g 4 Wife's L e v e l of S c h o l l i n g 5 Husband's Occupation 6 Wife's Occupation 7 Number of Rooms 8 Water f o r D r i n k i n g 9 Energy f o r L i g h t i n g 10 Type of T o i l e t 11 Wife's Reading H a b i t s 12 Wife's Income 13 T o t a l Family Income 14 Socio-Economic Status Exact Number of Family Members Dichotomized: (1) I l l i t e r a t e (2) L i t e r a t e L e v e l (Grade) of School Completed A l t o g e t h e r Seven C a t e g o r i e s Rankings of Occupation Based on Status and Education Seven C a t e g o r i e s Rankings of Oc c u p a t i o n a l A c t i -v i t i e s Based on Day to Day Work Seven C a t e g o r i e s Exact Number of Rooms i n the House Four C a t e g o r i e s Dichotomized: (a) Kerosene (b) E l e c t r i c i t y Rankings Based on the Standard of H e a l t h Dichotomized: (1) No (2) Yes P r o p o r t i o n of the T o t a l Family Income Exact Income i n Rupees Per Year Rankings Based on the S o c i o -Economic Standard Six C a t e g o r i e s 86 TABLE 5.7 (Continued) 15 Wife's Age at Exact Age at Marriage Marriage 16 Wife's Present Age Exact Age at the Time of Survey 17 L i t e r a c y L e v e l f o r P r o p o r t i o n to the T o t a l Family Male Family Members L i t e r a c y 18 L i t e r a c y L e v e l f o r P r o p o r t i o n to T o t a l Family Female f a m i l y Members L i t e r a c y Rate 19 L i t e r a c y L e v e l f o r Adult Family Members " " 20 Percentage of Male B i r t h s Percentage of Male B i r t h s to T o t a l B i r t h s of a Mother 21 Infant M o r t a l i t y Percentage of Infant Death (Aged Below One) 22 C h i l d Death Percentage of C h i l d Death (Aged Below 5) 23 Mean Average B i r t h Exact I n t e r v a l i n Years I n t e r v a l 24 Number of Pregnancies Exact Number 25 Urban-Rural Based on A d m i n i s t r a t i v e D e f i n i t i o n 26 C u l t u r a l Region Four C a t e g o r i e s SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 87 CHAPTER 6 VARIATION IN FERTILITY BY GEOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS Th i s chapter w i l l b r i e f l y examine the v a r i a t i o n i n f e r -t i l i t y among 323 surveyed Muslim households. In a d d i t i o n , the examination of such d i f f e r e n c e s w i l l be analysed by using c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n between f e r t i l i t y r a t e and background v a r i a -b l e s . The i n f o r m a t i o n on f e r t i l i t y i s based on the ever-married women (the wife of each household). The background i n f o r m a t i o n , on the other hand, i s mainly taken from the s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e l i s t (Table 5.7). The present age of women w i l l be c o n t r o l l e d when examining the r e l a t i o n between background v a r i a b l e s and f e r t i l i t y because of i t s s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n with f e r t i l i t y e.g. young women w i l l have fewer c h i l d r e n . Other background v a r i a b -l e s w i l l a l s o be used as c o n t r o l l e d v a r i a b l e s whenever necessa-ry and p o s s i b l e . The e x p l a n a t i o n of the f i n d i n g s from the c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n w i l l be accompanied by the o b s e r v a t i o n s which were made du r i n g the f i e l d survey as w e l l . 6.1 V a r i a t i o n i n G e o g r a p h i c a l L o c a t i o n s One of the s i g n i f i c a n t f e r t i l i t y v a r i a t i o n s i n S r i Lanka has been by g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n . H i s t o r i c a l l y , i n S r i Lanka, f e r t i l i t y has v a r i e d by p r o v i n c e s , d i s t r i c t s , e c o l o g i c a l zones and u r b a n - r u r a l p l a c e s (Abehayaratne, 1967; W.F.S., 1978). The r e f o r e , the v a r i a t i o n of S r i Lankan Muslim f e r t i l i t y as w e l l has been analysed f o r g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n such as u r b a n - r u r a l p l a c e s , S i n h a l e s e - T a m i l c u l t u r a l and s u b - c u l t u r a l regions, 8 8 economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e t c . In the end, i t has been found that r u r a l - u r b a n and c u l t u r a l regions are s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e -l a t e d with the f e r t i l i t y v a r i a t i o n among the surveyed popula-t i o n . Table 6.1 prese n t s the mean number of l i v e b i r t h s per ever-married women f o r v a r i o u s age groups. The v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y i s evident f o r r u r a l - u r b a n p l a c e s and c u l t u r a l r e -gions when c o n t r o l l e d f o r wife's present age. That i s , i n ge n e r a l , Muslims i n r u r a l areas and i n Sin h a l e s e areas have higher f e r t i l i t y than urban and Tamil area Muslims. In a d d i -t i o n , an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n of g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y i s e vident a c r o s s the age cohort s as w e l l . However, the women aged 45 years and over i n urban c e n t r e s and 35-45 years in Tamil c u l t u r a l r e g i o ns have been found to be exceptions to the above . i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n of g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y . I t i s obvious that the importance of g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n i s l e s s strong among the o l d e r c o h o r t s . The a s s o c i a t i o n of g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y when c o n t r o l l i n g f o r such v a r i a b l e s as wife's age at marriage, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , and s o c i a l s t a t u s i s examined i n Table 6.2. It i s evident that the g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n undoubtedly i n -f l u e n c e s the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n even when other background v a r i a b l e s are c o n t r o l l e d . When con-t r o l l e d f o r other v a r i a b l e s as w e l l , a s i m i l a r i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n of g e o g r a p h i c a l l o c a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y has been found. However, the c u l t u r a l v a r i a t i o n i s stronger than r u r a l - u r b a n d i f f e r e n c e s i n many examples. In other words, the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n that 89 TABLE 6.1 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED BY WOMEN'S AGE AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATIONS WOMAN Geographical L o c a t i o n Rural-Urban C u l t u r a l Area Age Group Rural Urban S i n h a l e s e Tamil < 24 25-34 35-44 > 45 2.6(10) 2.1(15) 4.1(61) 3.4(31) 6.3(64) 4.9(26) 5.4(75) 7.3(75) 2.8(6) 4.0(41 ) 5.7(49) 6.4(79) 2.1(19) 3.7(51) 6. 1(41) 5.5(37) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. TABLE 6.2 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMEN BY WOMEN'S AGE AT MARRIAGE, LEVEL OF SCHOOLING,SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION Geographical L o c a t i o n Rural-Urban C u l t u r a l Area Rural Urban S i n h a l e s e Tamil Marriage Age < 17 18-20 21-23 > 24 5.8(80) 4.9(87) 4.8(32) 4.2(11) 5.2(41 ) 3.8(21 ) 7.3(20) 3.9(31) 6.4(49) 5.0(62) 6.4(34) 4.2(30) 5.0(72) 4.2(46) 4.7(18) 3.6(12) Wife's L e v e l of S chooling < 5 6-9 > 9 5.4(29) 5.0(56) 4.2(25) 5.9(46) 4.8(39) 3.6(28) 6.0(104) 5.4(47) 3.5(24) 4.8(71) 4.5(48) 4.2(29) 90 TABLE 6.2 (Continued) Soc io-Economic Status Lower Lower Middle Upper Middle Upper 5.3(98) 4.9(86) 5.9(20) 4.2(6) 4.7(34) 5.6(38) 4.2(25) 5.3(16) 5.2(83) 5.7(65) 6.4(14) 5.9(13) 5.1(49) 4.5(59) 4.3(31 ) 3.7(9) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. l i v e s i n the Tamil c u l t u r a l areas has had a comparatively low f e r t i l i t y than those i n S i n h a l e s e areas when c o n t r o l l e d f o r s e v e r a l background v a r i a b l e s . The low f e r t i l i t y t r e n d i n Tamil c u l t u r a l area has been f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t e d by s u b - c u l t u r a l regions and one of many examples i s repo r t e d i n Table 6.3. A s i m i l a r t r e n d has been noted between two of the above v a r i a b l e s even when c o n t r o l l e d for the background v a r i a b l e s . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s evident that TABLE 6.3 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY WIFE'S LEVEL OF SCHOOLING AND SUB-CULTURAL REGIONS L e v e l of Education S u b - C u l t u r a l Region C e n t r a l & South North West East Coast < 5 6-9 > 9 6.0(104) 5.4(47) 3.6(24) 5.4(11) 4.8(25) 4.4(24) 4.8(60) 4.2(23) 3.4(5) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. East coast settlements have had comparatively lower f e r t i l i t y 91 than any other s u b - c u l t u r a l area. What then, are the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the f e r t i l i t y v a r i a t i o n among c u l t u r a l r egions? The l i v i n g environment and m i n o r i t y f e e l i n g of the surveyed popula-t i o n i n d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l regions might i n f l u e n c e t h e i r f e r t i -l i t y behaviour. For example, Muslims have been found to cons-t i t u t e the m a j o r i t y in a number of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e d i s t r i c t s , A.G.A. d i v i s i o n s , and Gramasevaka d i v i s i o n s i n E a s t e r n p r o v i n c e (East coast region) and to some extent, i n Mannar and i n P u t t a -lam d i s t r i c t s (North West region) as w e l l . In c o n t r a s t , Muslim settlements are s c a t t e r e d i n pockets throughout the S i n h a l e s e area. T h e r e f o r e , i t c o u l d be s p e c u l a t e d that concern f o r r e l i -g i o - e t h n i c i d e n t i t y has p o s i t i v e l y i n f l u e n c e d the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n who l i v e i n S i n h a l e s e c u l t u r a l area more than i t has f o r those who l i v e i n the Tamil c u l t u r a l a r e a . However, the r e g i o n a l ( c u l t u r a l ) v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y among S r i Lankan Muslim needs f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n f o r a f i r m c o n c l u s i o n . 6.2 Education and F e r t i l i t y H i s t o r i c a l l y , of a l l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , education probably has had the most c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p to f e r t i l i t y . The more h i g h l y educated people have tended to have fewer c h i l d r e n , a phenomenon that can be observed i n almost a l l s o c i e t i e s (Chap-te r 2). T h e r e f o r e , the a s s o c i a t i o n of wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g to f e r t i l i t y , when c o n t r o l l e d f o r wife's present age and age at marriage, i s examined i n Table 6.4. An i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n of l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g to f e r t i l i t y i s c l e a r l y e v ident when e i t h e r 92 TABLE 6.4 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY WOMEN'S PRESENT AGE, AGE AT MARRIAGE, AND LEVEL OF SCHOOLING L e v e l of Sc h o o l i n g Below Grade 5 Grades 6-9 Grades 10 & More Age Group < 24 2.3(13) 2.5(8) 1.8(4) 25-34 4. 1 (38) 3.6(27) 3.6(27) 34-44 6.6(39) 5.7(33) 4.7(18) > 44 6.2(85) 6.0(27) 4.2(4) Marriage Age <17 5.7(77) 5.6(32) 4.8(12) 18-20 4.8(54) 4.8(35) 3.9(19) 21-23 7.8(26) 4.4(12) 3.1(14) >23 3.7(17) 4.2(16) 4.0(8) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. wife's present age and age at marriage i s c o n t r o l l e d . However, f e r t i l i t y has i t s g r e a t e s t d e c l i n e with grade 10 and more educa t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , a s i m i l a r i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n of l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g to f e r t i l i t y has been found when c o n t r o l l i n g f o r husband's and c h i l d r e n ' s education as w e l l . The a s s o c i a t i o n of female education with f e r t i l i t y has been re-examined when c o n t r o l l e d f o r the s o c i a l s t a t u s of the surveyed households and i s presented i n Table 6.5. Table 6.5 i n d i c a t e s t h at the i n f l u e n c e of female education on f e r t i l i t y i s much more s i g n i f i c a n t other than f o r member of the lowest s o c i a l group. Thus, the a s s o c i a t i o n of female education with f e r t i l i t y s t i l l remains stronger though women's present age i s 93 not taken i n t o account. Table 6.6 presents the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the l e v e l of education and f e r t i l i t y when c o n t r o l l e d f o r husband's occupation and wife' s workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n . F i r s t l y , as Table 6.6 i l l u s t r a t e s , the e f f e c t of female educa-t i o n seem weakest among the women who are the wives of labour-ers and s a l e s workers and/ or are economically poor while others have shown comparatively a stronger i n f l u e n c e of female education on f e r t i l i t y . L ikewise, as shown i n the Table 6.6, the i n f l u e n c e of education i s much stronger among the women who have worked o u t s i d e t h e i r home. Th e r e f o r e , i n the above analy-s i s (as i l l u s t r a t e d i n the Tables) when another v a r i a b l e i s c o n t r o l l e d , female education remains a strong p r e d i c t o r of f e r t i l i t y . MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY SOCIAL TABLE 6.5 GROUP AND LEVEL OF EDUCATION Soc io-Economic Status L e v e l of Sc h o o l i n g Below Grade 5 Grades 6-9 Grade 10 & More Lower Lower Middle Upper Middle Upper 5.1(80) 6.0(66) 5.7(18) 5.6(11) 5.5(35) 4.5(33) 4.7(20) 5.3(7) 4.6(17) 3.7(25) 3.6(7) 3.0(4) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 94 TABLE 6.6 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY WIFE'S WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION, HUSBAND'S OCCUPATION, AND LEVEL OF SCHOOLING L e v e l of Sc h o o l i n g Below Grade 5 Grades 6-9 Grade 10 & More Workforce (wife's) Housekeeping only 5. 2(118) 4. ,8(71) 4. ,3(38) Housekeeping & h e l p i n g household economy 6. 1(31) 5. ,2(13) 3. .8(6) Housekeeping & small income earning work 7. 4(5) 3. ,0(3) 3, .0(3) Labourer 5. 3(20) 6. ,0(3) 3. .0(3) Own work & govern-ment employee 8. 0(1 ) 5. .6(5) 1 , .8(5) Husband's occupation Labourer 4. 5(21 ) 5. .3(4) 4, .6(5) Farmer 6. 1(24) 4, .9(10) 2, .0(3) Salesworkers 4. 8(25) 5. .3(9) 4, .3(4) B usiness 7. 2(22) 4, .9(16) 3, .8(9) Government employee 6. 2(8) 5, .6(14) 3, .5(11) Others 5. 5(66) 4, .8(38) 4, .3(20) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 6.3 Female Age at Marriage and F e r t i l i t y S e v e r a l s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e s that i n c r e a s i n g female age at marriage has s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d recent f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n S r i Lanka (Wright, 1970; Fernando,1979). Table 6.7 presents the a s s o c i a t i o n of age at marriage and mean b i r t h i n t e r v a l with f e r t i l i t y f o r v a r i o u s age groups. As Table 6.7 i n d i c a t e s , an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n i s evident a c r o s s the age groups. In other words, women who married e a r l y have had a comparatively higher 95 number of l i v e b i r t h s than the women who married l a t e r . There-f o r e , age of women i s an important f a c t o r i n f e r t i l i t y , indepe-ndent of the age of women. However, the women aged twenty f i v e years and over who married between twenty one to twenty three years show an unu s u a l l y high f e r t i l i t y compared to the women who married between the ages of eighteen and twenty y e a r s . In a d d i t i o n , as Table 6.7 i n d i c a t e s , the same age group un u s u a l l y 'has the highest mean number of l i v e b i r t h s with s h o r t e r b i r t h i n t e r v a l . Both r e s u l t s suggests that a group of women who married i n t h e i r e a r l y twenties has comparatively higher f e r t i -l i t y with a sh o r t e r b i r t h i n t e r v a l . TABLE 6.7 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY WOMEN'S PRESENT AGE, MEAN BIRTH INTERVAL AND AGE AT MARRIAGE Age at Marriage <17 18-20 21-23 24 and more Age Groups <24 25-34 35-44 >44 2.6(15) 4.6(31) 6.9(39) 6.3(36) 2.2(6) 3.6(33) 5.4(30) 5.4(39) 1.3(4) 3.7(20) 6.1(8) 8.6(20) 2.1(8) 4.0(13) 4.7(21 ) B i r t h I n t e r v a l <2 years >2 years 5.9(59) 5.3(62) 4.7(46) 4.9(62) 6.9(29) 4.3(23) 4.0(22) 4.0(20) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 96 The w i f e ' s l e v e l o f s c h o o l i n g has been f o u n d t o be i m p o r t a n t w i t h r e l a t i o n t o f e r t i l i t y i n t h e p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s . I n t h i s s e c t i o n t h e e f f e c t s o f f e m a l e age a t m a r r i a g e on f e r t i l i t y s t i l l r e m a i n s t r o n g e r e v e n when c o n t r o l l e d f o r f e m a l e l e v e l o f s c h o o l i n g . L i k e w i s e , a s i m i l a r s t r o n g r e l a t i o n h a s been f o u n d b e t w e e n f e r t i l i t y a n d age a t m a r r i a g e when c o n t r o l -l e d f o r c h i l d m o r t a l i t y ( T a b l e s n o t s h o w n ) . The women e x p e r i e n -c i n g c h i l d d e a t h s h a v e shown a s t r o n g e r r e l a t i o n a n d ha v e had a c o m p a r a t i v e l y l a r g e r number o f l i v e b i r t h s t h a n t h e women who h a v e n o t had t h i s e x p e r i e n c e . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n age a t m a r r i a g e and f e r t i l i t y i s n o t c l e a r among t h e d i f f e r e n t s o c i o - e c o n o m i c g r o u p s . F o r e x a m p l e , a s T a b l e 6.8 i n d i c a t e s , t h e e f f e c t s o f age a t m a r r i a g e on f e r t i l i t y i s w e a k e n e d , o r e v e n d i s a p p e a r s when s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s t a t u s i s c o n t r o l l e d . 6.4 Mean B i r t h I n t e r v a l a n d F e r t i l i t y The mean b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s r e l a t e d t o f e r t i l i t y when c o n t r o l l e d f o r s e v e r a l b a c k g r o u n d v a r i a b l e s . I n t h i s f i r s t i n s t a n c e , t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e w i f e ' s p r e s e n t age h a s been removed i n t h e r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n b i r t h i n t e r v a l a n d f e r t i l i t y a n d t h e r e s u l t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 6.9. I t e v i d e n t t h a t an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n o f mean b i r t h i n t e r v a l t o f e r t i l i t y e x i s t s a c r o s s t h e age g r o u p s . H o w e v e r , when c o n t r o l l e d f o r o t h e r b a c k g r o u n d v a r i a b l e s , d i f f e r e n t a n d i n t e r e s t i n g t r e n d s b e tween b i r t h i n t e r v a l a n d f e r t i l i t y h a s b e e n n o t e d . T a b l e 6.10 p r e s e n t s t h e a s s o c i a t i o n o f mean b i r t h i n t e r -97 TABLE 6.8 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS AND AGE AT MARRIAGE Socio-Economic Status Age at Marriage < 1 7 18-20 21 -23 >23 Lower 5. 9(49) 4.8(48) 5. 1(19) 4.2(16) Lower Middle 5. 4(41 ) 4.5(49) 6. 7(23) 3.6(11) Upper Middle 5. 3(22) 5.4(7) 5. 0(7) 3.8(9) Upper 5. 7(9) 4.3(4) 5. 0(3) 4.5(6) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. TABLE 6.9 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY WOMEN'S PRESENT AGE AND MEAN BIRTH INTERVAL Age Group B i r t h I n t e r v a l Below Two Years Above Two Years < 24 2.8(12) 1.9(13) 25-34 4.2(54) 3.4(28) 35-44 6.0(45) 5.8(45) > 44 7.2(45) 5.7(67) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 98 TABLE 6.10 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY BACKGROUND VARIABLES AND MEAN BIRTH INTERVAL Background Var i a b l e B i r t h I n t e r v a l Below Two Years Above Two Years S o c i a l Status Lower 5.3(66) Lower Middle 5.6(64) Upper Middle 5.7(16) Upper 5.6(10) Husband's Occupation Business 6.5(30) Farmer 6.1(19) Labourer 4.9(8) Government Employee 4.8(19) Sales Workers 4.8(18) Wife's Economic A c t i v i t y Housekeeping 5.6(136) Working Outside 4.4(20) 5.0(66) 4.6(60) 4.5(29) 4.5(12) 4.6(17) 4.9(18) 4.6(22) 5.4(15) 5.0(20) 4.7(152) 5.6(15) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981 v a l with f e r t i l i t y when c o n t r o l l e d f o r s o c i a l c l a s s , husband's occupation and wife's economic a c t i v i t i e s . F i r s t l y , i n Table 6.10, an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n i s evident when c o n t r o l l e d f o r s o c i a l s t a t u s . However, no r e l a t i o n s h i p s have been found v e r t i c a l l y (among s o c i a l c l a s s e s ) between the two v a r i a b l e s . On the other, hand, an i n t e r e s t i n g f i n d i n g has been noted i n Table 6.10 when c o n t r o l l e d f o r husband's o c c u p a t i o n . The wives of farmers and businessmen have experienced a l a r g e number of pregnancies 9 9 with short b i r t h i n t e r v a l s . In c o n t r a s t , wives of government servants and s a l e s workers have spaced t h e i r b i r t h i n t e r v a l s but s t i l l have a l a r g e number of pregnancies. Likewise, the women who work o u t s i d e t h e i r homes have experienced a l a r g e number of pregnancies with long b i r t h i n t e r v a l s . These r e s u l t s suggest that the wives of the government servants and s a l e s workers and women who work o u t s i d e t h e i r homes probably use b i r t h c o n t r o l methods to space t h e i r c h i l d -b earing but s t i l l have many c h i l d r e n . The reason f o r t h i s d e s i r e to have a l a r g e number of c h i l d r e n may be because of the la r g e f a m i l y s i z e norm which s t i l l , to some extent, p r e v a i l s among a l l s e c t i o n of t h i s community. T h e r e f o r e , even the people who are comparatively educated and economically a c t i v e while spacing t h e i r c h i l d - b e a r i n g have achieved l a r g e number of l i v e b i r t h s which they t h i n k i s an i d e a l f a m i l y s i z e f o r them. F i n a l l y , Table 6 . 1 1 presents the r e l a t i o n s h i p between mean b i r t h i n t e r v a l and f e r t i l i t y when c o n t r o l l e d f o r the percentage of male b i r t h s and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y . As Table 6 . 1 1 i n d i c a t e s , the sex d i s t i n c t i o n of c h i l d r e n may be one of the b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r s of f e r t i l i t y s i n c e the parents who had not had an equal number of male b i r t h s have had higher f e r t i l i t y with short b i r t h i n t e r v a l s . However, the e f f e c t of spacing on f e r t i l i t y d i sappears or weakens when percentage of male b i r t h s i s taken i n t o account. F i n a l l y , the Table a l s o i n d i c a t e s that the b i r t h i n t e r v a l s t i l l remains a p r e d i c t o r when c o n t r o l l e d for the percentage of c h i l d m o r t a l i t y . 1 00 TABLE 6.11 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMAN BY PERCENTAGE OF MALE BIRTHS, CHILD MORTALITY AND MEAN BIRTH INTERVAL B i r t h I n t e r v a l Below Two Years Above Two Years Percentage of Male L i v e B i r t h s < 50 6.4(69) 4.5(59) > 50 4.7(71 ) 4.9(108) Percentage of C h i l d M o r t a l i t y 1-1 00 6.9(40) 5.0(116) None 6.4(38) 4.3(129) SOURCE: F i e l d 6.5 C h i l d M o r t a l i t y Survey, 1981. and F e r t i l i t y Table 6.12 i l l u s t r a t e s the mean number of l i v e b i r t h s per ever-married woman and the percentage of c h i l d m o r t a l i t y when c o n t r o l l e d f o r women's age groups, age at marriage, and the l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g . The c o n t r o l l e d v a r i a b l e s p r e v i o u s l y have been found to i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y . T h e r e f o r e , i n t h i s s e c t i o n , those v a r i a b l e s have been c o n t r o l l e d i n r e l a t i o n bet-ween c h i l d m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y . A p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n i s evident i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . In other words, the women who had not had a c h i l d death had fewer l i v e b i r t h s than those who have had one or more c h i l d r e n d i e even when other important v a r i a b l e s are c o n t r o l l e d . I t should a l s o be noted that comparatively more 101 TABLE 6.12 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED WOMEN BY PRESENT AGE, AGE AT MARRAIGE, SOCIAL STATUS AND CHILD MORTALITY Percentage of C h i l d M o r t a l i t y 1-100 None Age Group < 24 4.0(1) 2.2(24) 25-34 5.3(14) 3.6(78) 35-44 6.6(25) 5.6(65) >44 7.3(38) 5.5(78) Marriage Age < 17 7.7(32) . 4.8(87) 18-20 6.1(27) 4.2(81) 21-22 6.0(8) 5.7(44) > 23 4.9(9) 3.8(83) Wife's L e v e l of Scho o l i n g < 5 6.4(45) 5.2(130) 6-9 7.0(25) 4.2(70) > 9 5.5(8) 3.6(43) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. educated women who married at a l a t e r age have been found to have low c h i l d m o r t a l i t y and low f e r t i l i t y when compared to other women or v i c e v e r s a . The i n f l u e n c e of c h i l d m o r t a l i t y on f e r t i l i t y has a l s o been analysed when c o n t r o l l e d f o r the socio-economic i n d i c a t o r s of households such as s o c i a l s t a t u s , types of d r i n k i n g water, the a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a t r i n e s e t c . A s i m i l a r p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n of c h i l d m o r t a l i t y to f e r t i l i t y i s evident i n those circumstan-1 02 ces as w e l l . F i n a l l y , the evidence, when c o n t r o l l e d f o r house-hold's occupation and wife' s workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n , has s t r e -ngthened the argument that the c h i l d m o r t a l i t y s t r o n g l y i n f l u -ences the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n . 6.6 The F i n d i n g s from Pearson and P a r t i a l  C o r r e l a t ions The r e l a t i o n between background v a r i a b l e s and f e r t i l i t y has been analysed by using the Pearson c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t a n a l y s i s . The s i g n i f i c a n t background v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r ' r ' and 'p' value s along with the t o t a l number of cases are r e p o r t -ed in Table 6.13. As Table 6.13 i n d i c a t e s , the wife's l e v e l of sc h o o l i n g , age at marriage and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y have been found to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d to f e r t i l i t y than other background v a r i a b l e s . However, the manner i n which f e r t i l i t y v a r i e s with the age of women i s w e l l known and i t i s r = -.23 in t h i s sample. T h e r e f o r e , the impact of present age of women on f e r t i -l i t y has been i n v e s t i g a t e d by using p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y -s i s . P a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t a n a l y s i s enables us to remove the e f f e c t of the c o n t r o l l e d v a r i a b l e , the present age of women, from the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between background v a r i a b l e s and f e r t i l i t y without m a n i p u l a t i n g the row data. Thus, the f i n d i n g s of p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s are presented in Table 6.14. I n t e r e s t i n g l y , as Table 6.14 i n d i c a t e s , the wife's age at marriage, her workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y r e -mained s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d to f e r t i l i t y while some other v a r i a b l e s have become weaker than the pearson c o r r e l a t i o n ana-103 TABLE 6.13 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELECTED BACKGROUND VARIABLES AND NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS V a r i a b l e Pearson C o r r e l a t i o n r p n Wife's l e v e l of sc h o o l i n g -.11 .02 323 Wife's l i t e r a c y l e v e l -.07 .09 323 Husband's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g -.06 NS 309 Wife's workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n NS NS 312 Husband's occupation NS NS 312 Wife's age at marriage -.06 . 1 3 323 Wife's present age -.23 .000 323 Infant m o r t a l i t y .07 .8 323 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y . 1 1 .01 323 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. TABLE 6.14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELECTED BACKGROUND VARIABLES AND NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS WHEN CONTROLLED FOR WOMEN'S PRESENT AGE V a r i a b l e s P a r t i a l C o r r e l a t i o n r p n Wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g NS NS 323 Wife's 1 i t e r a c y l e v e l NS NS 323 Husband's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g NS NS 323 Wife's workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n Husband's -.20 .01 312 occupat ion NS NS 312 1 04 TABLE 6.14 (Continued) Wife's age at marriage -.23 .00 323 Wife's present age - -Infant m o r t a l i t y NS NS 323 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y .19 .01 323 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. l y s i s . 6. 7 The Summary of F i n d i n g s F i r s t l y , among the g e o g r a p h i c a l f a c t o r s , c u l t u r a l r e -gions have shown a c l e a r v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y . The f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s comparatively low among the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n who l i v e in Tamil c u l t u r a l area than S i n h a l e s e (Table 6.15). Secon-d l y , the female l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g has been found to be of the stronger p r e d i c t o r s of f e r t i l i t y even when c o n t r o l l e d f o r a number of background v a r i a b l e s . T h i r d l y , the e f f e c t of i n c r e a -s i n g female age at marriage i s evident i n many a n a l y s i s . Howe TABLE 6.15 MEAN NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PER EVER-MARRIED (WOMEN) SURVEYED POPULATION Population C a t e g o r i e s Number of L i v e B i r t h s T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n 5.1 Rural 5.2 Urban 5.0 Sinhalese c u l t u r a l region 5.5 Tamil c u l t u r a l region 4.6 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 1 05 ver, a group of women who married i n t h e i r twenties have shown higher f e r t i l i t y than other women i n t h i s study (Table 6.16). F o u r t h l y , the v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y among socio-econo-mic groups i s not c l e a r i n many a n a l y s e s . The r e l a t i o n of socio-economic s t a t u s to f e r t i l i t y weakens or disapp e a r s i n many i n s t a n c e s . As a r e s u l t , a l a r g e number of pregnancies i s commonly found among many socio-economic and o c c u p a t i o n a l groups. Among them, the wives of farmers and businessmen have achieved comparatively l a r g e number of pregnancies with a short b i r t h i n t e r v a l while the wives of government servants and s a l e s workers have a l s o shown a s i m i l a r t rend with longer b i r t h i n t e r v a l . F i n a l l y , the f e r t i l i t y i s found to be i n f l u e n c e d by sex p r e f e r e n c e and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y as w e l l . Table 6.16 summarizes the s p e c i f i c i n f l u e n c e of c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e s on f e r t i l i t y . Among the s e v e r a l i n v e s t i g a t e d v a r i a b -l e s , w i f e ' s present age, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y have st r o n g r e l a t i o n even when c o n t r o l l e d f o r other background v a r i a b l e s . 1 06 TABLE 6.16 SPECIFIC INFLUENCE OF CERTAIN VARIABLES ON FERTILITY OF MUSLIMS OF SRI LANKA V a r i a b l e s f o r Other V a r i a b l e s Category i n Category Which I n f l u - Whose In f l u e n c e Which F e r t i - in Which ence i s i s C o n t r o l l e d l i t y i s F e r t i l i t y Measured Lower i s Highest Wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g Wife's Age at Marriage Wife's Work-fo r c e p a r t -i c i p a t i o n Husband's L e v e l of Sch o o l i n g Husband's Occupation S o c i a l C l a s s C u l t u r a l Area Present age, age at marriage, s o c i a l c l a s s , wife's workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n , and husband's occu-p a t i o n . Present age, b i r t h i n t e r v a l , and s o c i a l c l a s s Wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , husband's occu-p a t i o n , and s o c i a l s t a t u s S o c i a l c l a s s , husband's occu-p a t i o n , and wif e ' s workforce p a r t i -c i p a t i o n Husband's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g & s o c i a l c l a s s Husband's & wife's occu-p a t i o n , husband's and wife's s c h o o l -ing Present age, age at marriage, & wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g Grade 10 and above Grade 5 & below Age 24 & above Government employees Grade 10 & above Labourer Upper middle c l a s s East coast (Tamil) Ages 21-23 years Housekeep-ing women Grade 5 & below Business-men Lower c l a s s C e n t r a l & Southern ( S i n h a l e s e ) SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 107 CHAPTER 7 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF FERTILITY The purpose of t h i s chapter i s to analyse the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of S r i Lankan Muslims i n a m u l t i v a r i a t e framework usi n g the 323 surveyed households. Path a n a l y s i s has been s e l e c t e d to measure the c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p of background va-r i a b l e s to f e r t i l i t y . The a n a l y s i s i s based on f i v e independent v a r i a b l e s shown to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d to f e r t i l i t y . The number of c h i l d r e n born to ever-married women w i l l be co n s i d e r e d as the dependent v a r i a b l e . The a n a l y s i s of the 323 households i s f u r t h e r s p e c i f i e d by examining d i f f e r e n t age groups of women i n order to compare the c a u s a l p a t t e r n s of f e r t i l i t y among the sub-population groups. The a n a l y s i s of c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n and c o r r e l a t i o n i n the pr e v i o u s chapter conveyed s u b s t a n t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n on the f e r t i -l i t y mechanism of the Muslims of S r i Lanka. However, those f i n d i n g s have f a i l e d to i n d i c a t e the c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s and the s t r e n g t h between background v a r i a b l e s and f e r t i l i t y . In f a c t , f e r t i l i t y i s determined by i n t e r r e l a t e d independent va-r i a b l e s . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s necessary to determine how and what combination of f a c t o r s "causes" f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s . The path model, t h e r e f o r e , enables us to hypothesize a complex c a u s a l s t r u c t u r e , draw a v i s u a l d i s p l a y of a model and c a l c u l a t e the st r e n g t h of the v a r i o u s r e l a t i o n s h i p s to f e r t i l i t y (Asher, 1976; K e n d a l l and O'Muiracheartaigh, 1977). The f i r s t step i n the process of b u i l d i n g a path model 1 0 8 i s the s e l e c t i o n of a set of s i g n i f i c a n t background v a r i a b l e s i n r e l a t i o n to f e r t i l i t y . An examination of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of f e r t i l i t y to socio-economic, demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n pr e v i o u s chapters has shown that f i v e background v a r i a b l e s have stronger s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s to f e r t i l i t y . Those v a r i a -b l e s are w i f e ' s present age, her age at marriage, her l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , her socio-economic s t a t u s and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y . These f i v e v a r i a b l e s have been s e l e c t e d because they e x p l a i n a c o n s i -d e r a b l e p a r t of the v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y . T h e r e f o r e , i t should be p o s s i b l e to examine the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the Muslims of S r i Lanka with the h e l p of the above s e l e c t e d v a r i a -b l e s along with adequate sample s i z e . S p e c i f i c forms i n which the s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s are coded and analysed are given i n Appendix 4 . However, the a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y i s more complex and probably operates through a number of other intermediate v a r i a b l e s which were not i n c l u d e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . T h e r e f o r e , the f i n d i n g s of the path a n a l y s i s here should be i n t e r p r e t e d with c a u t i o n . A f t e r i d e n t i f y i n g the dependent and independent v a r i a -b l e s i n the path model, the second step i s to b u i l d a c a u s a l model that i n c l u d e s the temporal and c a u s a l o r d e r i n g of v a r i a -b l e s and hypothesizes the e f f e c t s of independent v a r i a b l e s with i n t e r v e n i n g and dependent v a r i a b l e s . Diagram 7 . 1 shows the c a u s a l o r d e r i n g of the s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s along with p r e d i c t e d p o s i t i v e and negative r e l a t i o n s h i p s . In t h i s model, the c h i l d -ren ever born are t r e a t e d as the dependent v a r i a b l e and f i v e other background v a r i a b l e s are t r e a t e d as e i t h e r explanatory or FIGURE 7.1: PATH DIAGRAM OF CHILDREN EVER-BORN AND OTHER SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS SOURCE: Field Survey, 1981. 1 10 i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s . In a d d i t i o n , as i n d i c a t e d i n Diagram 7.1, the c a u s a l order of v a r i a b l e s i s that c h i l d m o r t a l i t y i s p r i o r to the c h i l d r e n ever born, s o c i a l s t a t u s i s p r i o r to c h i l d m o r t a l i t y and so on. The wife's present age i s t r e a t e d as an explanatory v a r i a b l e , though the purpose of i t s i n c l u s i o n i s l a r g e l y that of c o n t r o l . The d i r e c t i o n of expected c a u s a t i o n i s i n d i c a t e d by arrows i n Diagram 7.1. Th e r e f o r e , s e v e r a l d i r e c t i o n s of causa-t i o n c o u l d be hypothesized along the arrows. The determinants of f e r t i l i t y are e i t h e r through age at marriage, education and present age or v i a c h i l d m o r t a l i t y to other v a r i a b l e s e t c . For example, i t c o u l d be hypothesized that women with l i t t l e educa-t i o n may marry e a r l y , may have more c h i l d r e n d i e , and may re p l a c e them r e s u l t i n g i n high f e r t i l i t y . L i k e w i s e , other va-r i a b l e s , as w e l l , are hypothesized to a f f e c t c h i l d r e n ever born with a v a r y i n g degree of importance. F i n a l l y , the f o l l o w i n g s t a t i s t i c a l steps were taken i n the proceeding path a n a l y s i s . F i r s t l y , the stepwise m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i s used with the path model. Secondly, the beta c o e f f i c i e n t s which are comparable to stand-ard r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s are used as path c o e f f i c i e n t s . 2 . F i n a l l y , R , which r e p r e s e n t s the the p r o p o r t i o n of v a r i a n c e e x p l a i n e d i n m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , i s used i n the 2 c a l c u l a t i o n of r e s i d u a l paths 1-R (Nie, et a l , 1975: 391-92). A path diagram which i n c l u d e s path c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r 323 surveyed women i s shown i n F i g u r e 7.2. In a d d i t i o n , Table 7.1 presents f u r t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n f o r the same a n a l y s i s . FIGURE 7.2: PATH DIAGRAM OF CHILDREN EVER-BORN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS (EVER-MARRIED WOMEN) - 1981 SOURCE: Field Survey, 1981. 1 1 2 TABLE 7.1 PATH COEFFICIENTS FOR MODEL PREDICTING FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR OF MUSLIM WOMEN IN SRI LANKA (323 CASES) V a r i a b l e T o t a l Causal Non-P a i r s Covariance R e l a t i o n Causal D i r e c t I n d i r e c t T o t a l C h i l d r e n ever born, .12 .06 -- .06 .06 c h i l d m o r t a l i t y C h i l d r e n ever born, soc io-economic s t a t u s -.02 .01 -.01 0 -.01 C h i l d r e n ever born, age at marriage -.06 -.08 -.01 -.09 .03 C h i l d r e n ever born, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g -.14 -.07 -.02 -.08 .06 C h i l d r e n ever born, present age .23 .21 .02 .23 0 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , soc io-economic s t a t u s -.14 -.13 -- -.13 -.01 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , age at marriage -.07 -.09 — -.09 -.03 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g -.09 0 -.03 -.03 -.05 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , present age .21 .22 -.02 .21 0 Soc io-economic s t a t u s , l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g .10 .10 — .10 0 Soc io-economic, present age — — - . 0 3 -.03 — Age at marriage, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g .13 .19 — .19 -.06 Age at marriage, present age . 1 6 .21 -.05 . 1 6 0 Le v e l of s c h o o l i n g , present age -.27 -.27 -.27 0 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 1 1 3 7.1 A P r e d i c t i v e Model of F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of  Muslims of S r i Lanka The f i n d i n g s of the path a n a y s i s i n d i c a t e that l e s s than 10 percent of the t o t a l v a r i a n c e of f e r t i l i t y can be e x p l a i n e d by those v a r i a b l e s which means that 90 percent of the v a r i a n c e i n c h i l d r e n ever born remains unexplained by those v a r i a b l e s . The reason f o r low v a r i a n c e may be because the v a r i a b l e s which were i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s were s e l e c t i v e ; t h e r e f o r e , unex-p l a i n e d f a c t o r s remain higher or as s e v e r a l e a r l i e r s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e , the c a p a c i t y of v a r i a n c e to e x p l a i n i s much lower i n micro-data a n a l y s i s than i n aggregated data a n a l y s i s ( B a l a k r i s -hnan, 1979: 216). However, the beta c o e f f i c i e n t s ( d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t s ) i n d i c a t e that most of the v a r i a n c e i n f e r t i l i t y was e x p l a i n e d d i r e c t l y by the wife's present age (.21). In f a c t , the highest a s s o c i a t i o n of wife's present age i s expected because young married women would have had fewer b i r t h s t h a t i s , have incomp-l e t e f a m i l i e s , than o l d e r women. Among the other v a r i a b l e s , s o c i a l s t a t u s does not show any r e l a t i o n e i t h e r by d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t s (.01) or t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t s (.00) with f e r t i -l i t y . However, three other v a r i a b l e s , w i f e ' s age at marriage, her l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , and c h i l d m o r t a l i t y , whose c a u s a l e f f e c t s range from .06 to .09, might e x p l a i n f e r t i l i t y . Among the three other v a r i a b l e s , c h i l d m o r t a l i t y i s somewhat weaker but has a d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t (-.06) on f e r t i -l i t y . Secondly, wife's age at marriage i s sronger i n i t s d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t (.08) on f e r t i l i t y ; however, much of i t s e f f e c t i s not through c h i l d m o r t a l i t y which means that young marriages 1 1 4 have more c h i l d r e n but not n e c e s s a r i l y due to replacement. F i n a l l y , w i f e ' s l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g i s shown to be stronger i n i t s d i r e c t c a u s a l r e l a t i o n (-.07) as w e l l as i t s i n d i r e c t c a u s a l r e l a t i o n through age at marriage (-.02) on f e r t i l i t y . The l a t e r c a u s a l path suggests that more educated women have fewer c h i l d r e n by d e l a y i n g t h e i r marriages or v i c e v e r s a . T h e r e f o r e , f e r t i l i t y i s i n d i r e c t l y caused by wife' s l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g which i s mediated by her age at marriage. However, on the whole, the model does not provide a strong c a u s a l r e l a t i o n of background v a r i a b l e s with f e r t i l i t y s i n c e beta c o e f f i c i e n t s are r e l a t i v e l y low. In other words, the o v e r a l l e x p l a n a t o r y power of the model i s weak. The weakness of the model may be due to the f a c t that a l l the age cohort s were taken together i n an a n a l y s i s . Sometimes, the c a s u a l e f f e c t s of each v a r i a b l e with f e r t i l i t y may d i f f e r f o r d i f f e r e n t age cohorts i f the age co h o r t s were analysed s e p a r a t e l y . Those f i n d i n g s might l e a d to a b e t t e r understanding of f e r t i l i t y behaviour of a sub-population group i n the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n w i l l apply path a n a l y s i s sepa-r a t e l y f o r two age c o h o r t s . 7.2 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Women Aged Forty-Nine Years and  Above The f i r s t attempt was to analyse the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of women aged f o r t y - n i n e years and above who a l r e a d y had comp-l e t e d t h e i r c h i l d b e a r i n g . Such an a n a l y s i s i s important be-cause the e f f e c t of women's age, which e x p l a i n e d much of the var i a n c e i n f e r t i l i t y , no longer e x i s t s i n these age c o h o r t s . 11 5 The f i n d i n g s of the a n a l y s i s are presented i n Fig u r e 7.3 and i n Table 7.2. I n t e r e s t i n g l y , the unexplained v a r i a n c e i n f e r t i l i t y decreased to 86 percent in t h i s a n a l y s i s . In t h i s a n a l y s i s two f a c t o r s have shown a strong d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y : w ife's age at marriage (-.35) and socio-economic s t a t u s (.35). None of the f a c t o r s show any i n d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y through other v a r i a b l e s . I t means that f e r t i l i t y which i s determined d i r e c t l y by wi f e ' s age at marriage and socio-economic s t a t u s i s not through c h i l d m o r t a l i t y (see F i g u r e 7.3 and Table 7.2). For example, high f e r t i l i t y among e a r l y married women i s not n e c e s s a r i l y to repla c e dead c h i l d r e n . However, c h i l d m o r t a l i t y , i t s e l f , i s shown to have a somewhat stronger c a u s a l e f f e c t (.25) on f e r t i -l i t y . T h i s suggests that the women who have had more c h i l d deaths r e p l a c e d them with a d d i t i o n a l b i r t h s which means high f e r t i l i t y . Wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g shows the hig h e s t t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t (.42) on f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . Much of i t s e f f e c t s were not d i r e c t but through w i f e ' s age at marriage. T h i s c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p suggests that educated women marry l a t e and as a r e s u l t of t h a t , end up with fewer c h i l d r e n . T h i s f i n d i n g i s s i m i l a r to the previous path a n a l y s i s but the c a u s a l r e l a t i o n of wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g with f e r t i l i t y through age at marriage i s much stronger and c l e a r e r i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . The d i r e c t c a u s a l e f f e c t s of wife' s present age on f e r t i l i t y have been reduced as expected but the r e l a t i o n s h i p has changed from p o s i t i v e to negative (-.17) compared to the FIGURE 7.3; PATH DIAGRAM OF CHILDREN EVER-BORN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS (EVER-MARRIED WOMEN AGED 49 AND ABOVE) - 1981 SOURCE: Field Survey, 1981. 1 1 7 TABLE 7.2 PATH COEFFICIENTS FOR MODEL PREDICTING FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR OF MUSLIM WOMEN, 4 9 YRS AND ABOVE (67 CASES) V a r i a b l e T o t a l Causal Non-P a i r s Covariance R e l a t i o n Causal D i r e c t I n d i r e c t T o t a l C h i l d r e n ever born, c h i l d m o r t a l i t y .24 .25 .25 -.01 C h i l d r e n ever born, soc io-economic s t a t u s .24 .35 -.02 .33 -.08 C h i l d r e n ever born, age at marriage -.28 -.35 -.04 -.38 .10 C h i l d r e n ever born, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g .09 .07 .35 .42 -.33 C h i l d r e n ever born, present age -.12 -.17 .07 -.10 -.02 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , soc io-economic s t a t u s -.12 -.07 — -.07 -.05 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , age at marriage -.18 -.14 — -.14 -.03 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g -.05 -.03 0 -.03 -.02 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , present age . 1 5 . 1 3 .02 . 1 5 0 Soc io-economic s t a t u s , l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g .03 .03 — .03 0 Soc io-economic, present age — — 0 0 0 Age at marriage, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g 0 -.02 — -.02 .02 Age at marriage, present age -.12 -.12 0 -.12 0 Le v e l of s c h o o l i n g , present age -.15 -.15 -.15 0 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 1 1 8 p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s . T h i s means that f e r t i l i t y of women aged f o r t y - n i n e years and above decreases along with i n c r e a s i n g w i f e ' s present age. The changed d i r e c t i o n i n t h i s age group may be because of inc r e a s e d n u t r i t i o n a l and h e a l t h c o n d i t i o n s of r e l a t i v e l y younger women would have i n c r e s e d the c h i l d b e a r i n g c a p a c i t y compared to e l d e r l y women. In a d d i t i o n , the changed d i r e c t i o n (from negative to p o s i t i v e ) of socio-economic s t a t u s with f e r t i l i t y i s probably because the present measurement may not be too r e l e v a n t f o r those women who had completed t h e i r c h i l d bearing long ago. 7.3 F e r t i l i t y Behaviour of Women Aged F o r t y - E i g h t  Years and Below The t h i r d attempt in path a n a l y s i s was to f i n d out which combination of f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of women aged f o r t y - e i g h t years and below. The younger age cohort s are a l s o important because the recent socio-economic and demo-graphic changes may be more p r e v a l e n t among t h i s age group than among the o l d e r c o h o r t s . The f i n d i n g s of the path a n a l y s i s are presented i n Table 7.3 and i n F i g u r e 7.4. Wife's present age has emerged as a st r o n g p r e d i c t o r of f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s a n a l y s i s because of the connection between f e r t i l i t y i n c r e a s e and i n c r e a s i n g women age among the younger women ( f o r t y - e i g h t years and below). Of the four other back-ground v a r i a b l e s , c h i l d m o r t a l i t y ( t o t a l c a u s a l effect=.03) and socio-economic s t a t u s ( t o t a l c a u s a l e f f e c t " . 0 4 ) are not good e x p l a n a t i o n s of f e r t i l i t y of t h i s group of women. Instead, f o r t h i s group, wif e ' s age at marriage i s a somewhat weaker v a r i a -FIGURE 7.4: PATH DIAGRAM OF CHILDREN EVER-BORN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS (EVER-MARRIED WOMEN AGED 48 AND BELOW) - 1981 SOURCE: Field Survey, 1981. 1 20 TABLE 7.3 PATH COEFFICIENTS FOR MODEL PREDICTING FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR OF MUSLIM WOMEN, 48 YRS AND BELOW (2 56 CASES) V a r i a b l e T o t a l Causal Non-P a i r s Covariance R e l a t i o n Causal D i r e c t I n d i r e c t T o t a l C h i l d r e n ever born, c h i l d m o r t a l i t y .09 .03 — .03 .07 C h i l d r e n ever born, soc io-economic s t a t u s -.07 -.03 C -.04 -.03 C h i l d r e n ever born, age at marriage -.04 -.06 -.01 -.06 .02 C h i l d r e n ever born, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g -.14 -.08 -.01 -.09 -.06 C h i l d r e n ever born, present age .31 .30 .01 .31 0 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , soc io-economic s t a t u s -.16 -.15 - - -.15 -.01 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , age at marriage -.05 -.07 - - -.07 .02 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g -.07 0 -.04 -.04 -.03 C h i l d m o r t a l i t y , present age .18 .18 0 .17 -.01 Soc io-economic s t a t u s , l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g . 14 . 1 4 - - . 1 4 0 Soc io-economic, present age -.02 -.02 Age at marriage, l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g .22 .24 - - .24 -.02 Age at marriage, present age . 12 . 1 5 -.04 . 1 2 0 Le v e l of s c h o o l i n g , present age -. 16 -.16 — -.16 0 SOURCE: F i e l d Survey, 1981. 121 bl e ( t o t a l c a u s a l effect=-.06) and wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g i s the b e t t e r p r e d i c t o r ( t o t a l c a u s a l effect=-.09) of f e r t i l i t y . F e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s among women aged f o r t y - e i g h t years and below i s d i f f e r e n t from the o l d e r women (aged f o r t y - n i n e years and above). The wife's l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g and her age at marriage have become d i s c o n n e c t e d i n t h e i r e f f e c t s on the f e r t i l i t y behaviour of younger women. T h i s means that with more education and more in f o r m a t i o n about modern c o n t r a c e p t i v e t e c h -niques, a t t i t u d e s towards having c h i l d r e n have changed. As a r e s u l t , younger, educated women who marry e a r l y have fewer c h i l d r e n . 7.4 Summary F e r t i l i t y of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n (323 cases) i s mainly determined by the wife' s l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g which i s mediated by her age at marriage. The f i n d i n g suggests that women with l i t t l e education marry e a r l y and d u r i n g t h e i r longer c h i l d - b e a r i n g p e r i o d achieve comparatively l a r g e r number of pregnancies. The trend remains unchanged and becomes stronger among the women aged f o r t y - n i n e years and above who complete t h e i r c h i l d b e a r i n g . The tr e n d , however, i s d i f f e r e n t f o r younger women aged f o r t y - e i g h t years and below whose f e r t i l i t y i s mainly determined by two d i s c o n n e c t e d v a r i a b l e s : the l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g and age at marriage. 1 22 CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSION The f i n a l chapter w i l l summarize the f i n d i n g s of t h i s study and i n t e g r a t e then to give an o v e r a l l p i c t u r e of the d i f f e r e n t a spects of Muslim f e r t i l i t y behaviour. The c o n c l u -s i o n w i l l a l s o o u t l i n e some of the p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s of my res e a r c h . The study i s based on 323 Muslim households randomly chosen from eleven Muslim settlements i n S r i Lanka. Twenty-six v a r i a b l e s were used i n c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n and pearson c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s . Among them, the s i x most h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s were used i n the path a n a l y s i s . 8 . 1 General C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The socio-economic and the demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the surveyed p o p u l a t i o n vary w i t h i n settlement and between se t t l e m e n t s . Nearly 4 5 percent of the t o t a l households are poor and n e a r l y two t h i r d s are below the lower middle c l a s s l e v e l . The m a j o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n i s engaged e i t h e r i n a g r i c u l t u r e in r u r a l areas or i n saleswork i n urban a r e a s . The l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g among the a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n i s very low; n e a r l y 5 0 percent of the male (husband) and n e a r l y 5 5 percent of female (wife) heads of the households were only educated up to grade f i v e . However, the l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g among young males and females i s comparatively h i g h . Female workforce p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s very low, only about 1 0 percent of the t o t a l female house-h o l d heads being engaged i n g a i n f u l employment o u t s i d e t h e i r 123 home. Females marry e a r l y ; t h e i r average age at marriage i s 18.5 y e a r s . The mean number of l i v e b i r t h s per ever-married women i s 5.1 and the average b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s l e s s than two year s . One out of four households has experienced up to 100 percent c h i l d m o r t a l i t y . 8.2 Major F i n d i n g s The w i f e ' s l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g has been shown to have a c o n s i s t e n t i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p with f e r t i l i t y . The more educa-t i o n women r e c e i v e , the lower the number of pregnancies. How-ever, a major r e d u c t i o n i n the t o t a l number of pregnancies occurs i f the wife r e c e i v e s grade ten education or more. I t means that the longer women stay i n s c h o o l , the higher the age at marriage. Education a l s o i n c r e a s e s the knowledge of c o n t r a -c e p t i o n which d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e f e r t i l i t y . The inve r s e r e l a t i o n of education to f e r t i l i t y remains when c o n t r o -l l e d f o r other v a r i a b l e s as w e l l . Another important f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g to the high f e r t i l i t y of Muslims was the wife' s age at marriage. I t i s s t r o n g l y n e g a t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d with f e r t i l i t y even when c o n t r o l l e d f o r age of women, socio-economic s t a t u s , and ed u c a t i o n . A c o n s i d e r a b l e r e d u c t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y i s noted when women marry at twenty-two years of age. Likewis e , women who are engaged i n g a i n f u l employment o u t s i d e t h e i r home have shown low f e r t i l i t y . High f e r t i l i t y with a s h o r t e r b i r t h i n t e r v a l i s common among l i t t l e educated, e a r l y married housewives who comprise the m a j o r i t y of the 323 cases i n my sample. Th e r e f o r e , u n t i l 1 2 4 the socio-economic and e d u c a t i o n a l standards of females are improved, f e r t i l i t y l e v e l w i l l l i k e l y remain h i g h . One of the important f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g to high f e r t i -l i t y seems to be the p r e v a i l i n g high c h i l d m o r t a l i t y r a t e . C h i l d m o r t a l i t y i s s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d to poor economic s i t u a -t i o n s , i l l i t e r a c y , e a r l y age at marriage and short b i r t h i n t e r -v a l . As long as a high c h i l d m o r t a l i t y r a t e and the subsequant fear of c h i l d death p r e v a i l among Muslims, the scope of f e r t i -l i t y r e d u c t i o n w i l l remain l i m i t e d . In a d d i t i o n , the d e s i r e f o r male c h i l d r e n a l s o seems to be i n f l u e n c i n g f e r t i l i t y . Male c h i l d r e n are only as a source of income r i g h t from c h i l d h o o d . F e r t i l i t y i s higher among the r u r a l poor, farmers, and urban businessmen whose economic o r i e n t a t i o n r e q u i r e s more l a b o u r e r s , p r e f e r a b l y from the f a m i l y . On the other hand, f e r t i l i t y i s lower among the urban poor, salesworkers, and government employees who, with t h e i r l i m i t e d income, f e e l that r e a r i n g many c h i l d r e n i s a heavy burden. F e r t i l i t y a l s o v a r i e s between the two major c u l t u r a l r e g i o n s : the S i n h a l e s e and the Tamil areas. The f e r t i l i t y i s higher among Muslims who l i v e i n the S i n h a l e s e areas and lower in the Tamil areas. Concern about e t h n i c i d e n t i t y and m i n o r i t y f e e l i n g may have l e d to higher f e r t i l i t y i n the S i n h a l e s e areas compared with Tamil a r e a s . However, I s t r o n g l y f e e l that t h i s q u e s t i o n needs f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n order to draw any f i r m c o n c l u s i o n s . 1 25 8.3 F i n d i n g s from M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s Since many of the socio-economic and demographic v a r i -a b l e s are h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d , the path a n a l y s i s was employed to determine the s t r e n g t h and d i r e c t i o n of the background v a r i -a b l e s with f e r t i l i t y . The wife's present age, her l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g , age at marriage, socio-economic s t a t u s , c h i l d morta-l i t y and c h i l d r e n ever born are used in the path a n a l y s i s . The f i n d i n g s of the path a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e that the f e r t i l i t y of the 323 surveyed women i s mainly determined by t h e i r l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g which i s , i n f a c t , mediated by t h e i r age at marriage. The above t r e n d i s much stronger among the ol d e r women who have completed t h e i r c h i l d b earing (aged f o r t y -nine years and above). T r a d i t i o n a l f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s have changed among younger women (aged f o r t y - e i g h t and below). A l -though f e r t i l i t y i s mainly determined by female l e v e l of schoo-l i n g and her age at marriage, the d i r e c t i o n of i n f l u e n c e has changed among younger women. I t means that both f a c t o r s i n f l u e -nce f e r t i l i t y d i r e c t l y without any mediation. T h e r e f o r e , the new tr e n d among younger women i n d i c a t e s that i f the female l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g i n c r e a s e d , f e r t i l i t y w i l l e v e n t u a l l y d e c l i n e r e g a r d l e s s of i n c r e a s i n g age at marriage. The f e r t i l i t y of the Muslim p o p u l a t i o n i s mainly determ-ined by the female l e v e l of s c h o o l i n g . Female l e v e l of s c h o o l -ing however, i s d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y (through age at mar-r i a g e and other f a c t o r s ) i n f l u e n c i n g f e r t i l i t y . For example, a woman with l i t t l e education normally marries e a r l y , i s engaged in household a c t i v i t i e s , may l o s e many c h i l d r e n which r e s u l t s 1 26 in high f e r t i l i t y . The female l e v e l of schooling i s found to be low among Muslims; therefore, f e r t i l i t y i s comparatively high. However, the younger women have shown a decline in f e r t i l i t y due to recent educational changes. The low education l e v e l i s common among a l l sections (age, sex, geographical areas) of the Muslims population. Sta-t i s t i c a l l y , as noted e a r l i e r , the educational achievements of Muslim is far behind the other communities except Indian (Es-tate) Tamils. This has mainly been due to the resistance again-st the c u l t u r a l and re l i g i o u s influence of the c o l o n i a l power. U n t i l very recently, educational opportunities were available only up to the primary l e v e l in many Muslim settlements. How-ever, t h i s has, to some extent, changed as a result of educa-ti o n a l reforms undertaken since 1965. During t h i s period, Mus-lim schools were up-graded and males and p a r t i c u l a r l y females were attracted to higher education with the provision of emplo-yment opportunities as school teachers. This and other socio-economic changes have resulted in changing demographic patterns among the younger generation. Therefore, a s i g n i f i c a n t reduction in f e r t i l i t y of Mus-lims is possible i f the socio-economic conditions of females are further improved. Female education must be given f i r s t p r i o r i t y in t h i s regard. 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M a t t a k k u l i y a 15. Muthuwela 16. Hunupit i y a 17. Mahara 18. Nawala 19. Nugegoda 20. Dehiwela 21 . Mount L a v i n i a 22. Ratmalana 23. Moratuwa 24. Padukka 25. Galagedara 26. Hanwella 27. Malwana 28. Poogoda 29. Pettah 30. Panchi kawatta 31 . Modara 32. Grandpass 33. Avi ssawella 34. Makola 35. Madampitiya 36. Wattala 1.2 Gampaha D i s t r i c t Settlement 1. Kadawata 4. Negombo 7. Nittambuwa 10. Nambuluwa 13. Katuowita 2. Gampaha 5. Mirigama 8. Pasyala 11. Algama 14. Veyangoda 3. Minuwangoda 6. A t t a n a g a l l a 9. Kala E l i y a 12. T h i h a r i y a 1.3 K a l u t a r a D i s t r i c t Settlement 1. Egodauyana 4. Maggona 7. Welipanne 10. Horana 2. Panadura 5. Beruwala 8. Alutgama 11. Neboda 3. K a l u t a r a 6. Dorga-town 9. Palanda 12. Matugama 2.C e n t r a l Province 2 . 1 Matale D i s t r i c t Settlement 1. Mandandawela 4. M.C.Road 7. Manamboda 10. Maperiya 2. Gongahawela 5. Walakumbura 8. Marokona 11. Kuriwela 3. Oyapahala 6. Ukuwela 9. Parakawela 12. Rythalawela 1 39 APPENDIX 1 (Continued) 13. Kumbirangoda 16. Gonamada 19. K a u d u p a l a l l a 22. Dambulla 25. Matale 14. U l p o t h a p i t i y a 17. Madipola 20. Mahawela 23. Galewela 26. Alawatugoda 15. A l u v i h a r a 18. Nikakola 21. Rattota 24. Naula 2.2 Nuwara E l i y a D i s t r i c t Settlement 1. Hanguranketa 4. Nanuoya 7. Udapussellawa 2.3 Kandy D i s t r i c t Settlement 2. Ramboda 5. Nuwara-eliya 8. Kandapola 3. Thalawakale 6. Ragala 1. Watadeniya 2. Walamboda 3. K u r u k u t t a l a 4. Bambaradeniya 5. Buweli kada 6. Daulagala 7. Hendeniya 8. Meewaladeniya 9. Pethiyagoda 10. Dehipagoda 1 1 . Elamaldeniya 12. G e l i - o y a 13. Kalugamuwa 14. E l p i t i y a 15. Kahatapi t i y a 16. I l l a w a t u r a 17. Andiyagodawatte 18. Ahindamale 19. Gampolagala 20. Mariyawatta 21 . Apakotuwa 22. Ulapane 23. Keerapane 24. Getambe 25. Mahaiyawa 26. Katugastota 27. Mawilmada 28. Watapuluwa 29. Wattegedara 30. Madawala 31 . Akurana 32. Bulugahatenne 33. Malwanahinne 34. Kurugoda 35. Pangullamada 36. N e e r a l l a 37. Kurundugahaela 38. Telambugahawatte39. Udalagama 40. Murutalawa 41 . Dehianga 42. Yahalatenna 43. Malwathugoda 44. I1iukwatta 45. Amunugama 46. Menikhinna 47. Tennakumbura 48. Hapugastalawa 49. Salem-Bridge 50. Palangoda 51 . Kotmale 52. Hatton 53. Dickoya 54. Maskeliya 3. Southern Province 3.1 G a l l e D i s t r i s t Settlement 1. P a l a p i t i y a 4. G i n t o t a 7. Kotte 10. Katugoda 13. Nawinna 16. T a l a g a s w e l l a 19. G a l l e 2. P a n a p i t i y a 5. Ka l u w e l l a 8. Makuluwa 11. Milinduwa 14. Alutgama 17. Urugama 3. Dunduwa 6. Thundalla 9. T a l a p i t i y a 12. Hirimbure 15. E l p i t i y a 18. Nagoda 1 4 0 A P P E N D I X 1 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 3 . 2 M a t a r a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. M a t a r a 4 . G o d a p i t i y a 7 . Y a k k a s m u n i 1 0 . D e n i y a y a 2 . G a n d a r a 5 . W e l i g a m a 8 . H o r a g o d a 1 1 . A k u r e s s a 3 . K i r i n d e 6 . M e e u l l a 9 . D i c k w e l l a 1 2 . H a k m a n a 3 . 3 H a m b a n t o t a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. H a k m a n a 2 . P e r i a t t a 3 . T a n g a l l e 4 . N e l u g a m a 5 . H a m b a n t o t a 4 . N o r t h e r n P r o v i n c e 4 .1 M a n n a r D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. V i d a t a l T i v u 2 . P e r i a m a d u 3 . A a n d a n k u l a m 4 . U e i l a n k u l a m 5 . A r i p p u 6 . P a n d a r a w e l l i 7 . M u r u n k a n 8 . P u t h u v e l l i 9 . V a p p a n k u l l a m 1 0 . P o t k e r n e y 1 1 . A h a t h i m u r i p p u 1 2 . T a m p a t t a -M u t h a l i k k a t u 1 3 . C h i l a w a t h u r a i 1 4 . K o o l a n k u l l a m 1 5 . M a r i c h i k a d d y 1 6 . P a l a i k u l i 1 7 . K o n d a c h i 1 8 . K a r a d i k u l i 1 9 . M a n n a r t o w n 2 0 . E r u k k a l a m p i d d y 21 . K a r u s a l 2 2 . P u t h u k u d i y i r r u p p u 2 3 . T a r a p u r a m 2 4 . T a l a i m a n n a r 4 . 2 V a v u n i y a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. P o o n t h o t t a m 4 . S o o d u w a n t h a p u l a v u 7 . N e r i a k u l a m 1 0 . M a n k u l a m 2 . P a t t a n i c h i v o o r 5 . S a l a n p a i k u l a m 8 . C h e t t i k u l a m 1 1 . K a k a i k u l a m 3 . P u l l i a n k u l a m 6 . P a w a t k u l a m 9 . A a n d i y a p u l i -a n k u l a m 4 . 3 M u l l a i t i v u D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. M u l l a i t i v u 2 . M u l l i a w a l a i 3 . M a n k u l a m 141 A P P E N D I X 1 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 4 . 4 J a f f n a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. J a f f n a t o w n 2 . C h a w a k a c h c h e r i 3 . K i l i n o c h c h i ( Z o n a h a r T e r u ) 5 . E a s t e r n P r o v i n c e 5.1 T r i n c o m a l e e D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. A k k a r a c h e n n a i 2 . A n a i c h e n n a i 3 . I q b a l S t r e e t ( V a n n a r C h e n n a i ] 4 . K u l l a t a d i T h e r u 5 . P a l a i T o p u 6 . A l l a i n a h a r ( J a y a S t r e e t ) 7 . Z o n a k a r T h e r u 8 . P u l m o d d a i 9 . M u l l i p o t h a n a i ( 9 6 ) 1 0 . W a l o r u 1 1 . S i n n a K i n n i y a 1 2 . P e r i y a K i n n i y a 1 3 . K u r i c h a K e n e y 1 4 . K u d d i K a c h i 1 5 . M u n a i C h e n a i 1 6 . K a c h a i k o d i T i v u 1 7 . N i l a v e l l i 1 8 . T i r i n c o m a l e e 1 9 . K i n n i y a 2 0 . M u t u r 21 . P e r i y a P a l a m 2 2 . K a t h a l a i 2 3 . P a n k u l a m 2 4 . T o p o o r . 2 B a t t i c a l o a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1 . B a t t i c a l o a t o w n 2 . P o o n o c h i m u n a i 3 . N o c h i m u n a i ( K o t t a i m u n a i ) 4 . K a t h a n k u d d y 5 . K a n g e y a n O d a i 6 . P a l a m u n a i 7 . M e e r a O d a i 8 . V a l a i c h e n a i 9 . O t t a m a w a d i 1 0 . K a l i c h a i 1 1 . E r a v u r 1 2 . M e e r a k e n e y 1 3 . U r u g a m a m 1 4 . K o p p a v e l i . 3 A m p a r a i D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1 . M a r u t h a m u n a i 2 . K a l m u n a i 3 . S a i n t h a m a r u t h u 4 . K a l a i t i v u 5 . N i n t a v u r 6 . O l u v i l 7 . P a l a m u n a i 8 . A t t a l a c h c h e n a i 9 . A k k a r a i p a t t u 1 0 . P o t t u v i l 1 1 . U l l a i 1 2 . P a r a d i c h e n a i 1 3 . M a l k a m p i t t i 1 4 . J B l o c k E a s t 1 5 . U d a n k a 1 6 . S a m a n t h u r a i 1 7 . K a r u w a t t u k a l 1 8 . V e e r a c h o l l a i 1 9 . C h o r i k a l m u n a i 2 0 . C h a v a l a k a d a i 21 . N a v i t h a n v e l i 2 2 . 1 3 t h C o l o n y 2 3 . N a t p i t t i m u n a i 2 4 . Ma j e e d p u r a m 2 5 . V a r i p a t h a n z a n 2 6 . I s a i k a m a m 142 A P P E N D I X 1 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 6 . N o r t h - W e s t e r n P r o v i n c e 6.1 P u t t a l a m D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. K a r a m p a i 2 . T h e t h a p i l a i 3 . C h e t t i c h e n a i 4 . T a l u w a 5 . N a v a t k a d u 6 . M a a p o o r 7 . M a r a k a l i 8 . P a n a i a d i 9 . K a r a v a n k u d i 1 ( P o o l a n c h e n a i ) 1 0 . N u r a i C h e l a i 1 1 . A l a n k u d a 1 2 . A n d a n k e r n y 1 3 . E t h a l a i 1 4 . P a l l i v a s a l T h u r a i 1 5 . P a l a k u d a 1 6 . T a l a i m i l l u 1 7 . C h o t t u p i t t u V a d i 1 8 . K a n d a l K u d a 1 9 . M u s a l P i t t i 2 0 . P a l l i v a s a l T h u r a i 2 1 . K u r i n c h i P i t t i 2 2 . K a d a i y a m o t t a i 2 3 . N a l a n t l i s w a 2 4 . G a n a m u l a 2 5 . P e r u k k u W a t t a n 2 6 . S a m e e r a g a m a 2 7 . R a t p i t t i 2 8 . M a t h u r a n k u l i 2 9 . P a l a v i 3 0 . P u t t a l a m 31 . V a t t a k a n d a l 3 2 . K a r a i t i v u 3 3 . E l u v a n k u l a m 3 4 . C h i l a w 3 5 . A n a m a d u w a 3 6 . S a r a v a n a 6 . 2 K u r u n e g a l a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. K u r u n e g a l a t o w n 2 . T h e l i y a k o n a 3 . W e h a r a p a n a t h a 4 . M a l k a d u w a w a 5 . W e h a r a 6 . A s w e d d u m a 7 . N a g a l a m u n a 8 . M a l l a w a p i t i y a 9 . T h a l g o d a p i t i y a 1 0 . T h o r a y a 1 1 . W a l l a w a 1 2 . M a w a t a g a m a 1 3 . T a l a h a t t a l a 1 4 . T e l a m b u g a l a 1 5 . T e d i l i a n g a 1 6 . M u d u n d u a 1 7 . K u m b a l a n g a 1 8 . R a m b u k k a n a 1 9 . B a n a g a m u w a 2 0 . M o r a g o l l a 21 . T h a l g a s p i t i y a 2 2 . P a r a g a g a h a d e n i y a 2 3 . P a n n a l a 2 4 . P o t t u h a r a 2 5 . K u r u m a d a 2 6 . P a t m e e k o l a 2 7 . A l a k o l a d e n i y a 2 8 . K a d i r a w a l a w a 2 9 . M e e r a g a m p i t i y a 3 0 . S e n a g e d a r a 31 . W a l p i t i g e d a r a 3 2 . P e n d a l i g o d a 3 3 . P o l g a h a y a y a 3 4 . N a r a m m a l a 3 5 . P l o g a h a w e l a 3 6 . W e l i k u m b u r u -g e d a r a 3 7 . K u l i y a p i t i y a 3 8 . Y a y a w a t t a 3 9 . Mummanna 4 0 . D a m b a d e n i y a 41 . E c a p o d a g a m a 4 2 . P a m p e n n a 4 3 . K a d a h a p o l a 4 4 . H o r a m b a w a 4 5 . K u r i v i k o t u w a 4 6 . K e k u w u g o l l a 4 7 . S i y a m b a l a g a s - 4 8 . A r i k i y a l a k o t u w a 4 9 . P a n d a w a 5 0 . O r a l i a t t a 51 . W a r i y a p o l a 5 2 . T i m b i r i g a s k o t u w a 5 3 . W a l p a l u w a 5 4 . M a t t o 5 5 . N i k a w e r a t i y a 5 6 . Namuwawa 5 7 . K i r i p o k u n a 5 8 . R a m b a w a 5 9 . A p a k a g a m a 6 0 . G a l g a m u w a 61 . K u d a w e w a 6 2 . P u l n e w a 6 3 . A t a w a r a l a 6 4 . W a l p a l u w a 6 5 . M a d a p o k u n a 1 4 3 A P P E N D I X 1 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 7 N o r t h - C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e 7.1 A n u r a d h a p u r a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. K e k i r a w a 2 . G a n e w a l p o l a 3 . M a d a t u g a m a 4 . H o r a p o l a 5 . N i d i g a m a 6 . K a l a w e w a 7 . N e g a m p a h a 8 . P a l a l u w e w a 9 . K a l a g i y a g a m a 1 0 . M a r a d a n k a d a w e l a 1 1 . N a c h c h a d u w a 1 2 . G a l e n b i n d u n u w e w a 1 3 . H o r o v p a t h a n a 1 4 . K a h a t a g a s d i g i -1 i y a 1 5 . N e l i w a g a m a 1 6 . K a d u k e l i y a w a 1 7 . K a d i y a w a ( T r a c k 7 ) 1 8 . E n d a g a l a 1 9 . M e d a w a c h c h i y a 2 0 . K a d u p u l i y a n k u l a m 21 . U d u m b u g a l a 2 2 . M a h a k i r i p a w a 2 3 . W i l w e w a 2 4 . M u k i r i y a w a 2 5 . K i r i g o l l a w a 2 6 . G a m b i r i g a s w e w a 2 7 . N i k a w e w a 2 8 . A n u r a d h a p u r a 2 9 . N o c h c h i y a g a m a 7 . 2 P o l o n n a r u w a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. H a b a r a n a 2 . H i n g u r a k g o d a 3 . N u g a g a h a t h a m a n a 4 . P o l o n n a r u w a 5 . E l i n d a p a t h a n a 6 . S u m k a w i l a 7 . T a m p a l a 8 . O n e g a m a 9 . P u t o o r 1 0 . D i u l a n a 1 1 . P o r a w e w a 1 2 . K a l e l a 1 3 . R a h m a t h t o w n 1 4 . K a d u r u w e l a 1 5 . M u s l i m c o l o n y 1 6 . M a n i k k a m p i t i y a 8 . P r o v i n c e o f U v a . 1 B a d u l l a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1 . M a h i y a n g a n a 2 . B a d u l l a 3 . L u w u g a l a 4 . M e d a g a m a 5 . B a d u l u p i t i y a 6 . H a l i e l a 7 . K o t t e g o d a 8 . P a l u g a m a 9 . P a s s a r a 1 0 . E l l a 1 1 . W e i i m a d a 1 2 . B a n d a r a w e l a 1 3 . H a p u t a l e . 2 M o n e r a g a l a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. M a l a g a s t a l a w a 2 . B i b i l e 3 . M e d a g a m a 4 . M o d a g a m a 5 . P a k k i n i k a w e l a 6 . B a d a l k u m b u r a 7 . A l u t h p o t h a 8 . W e l l a w a y a 9 . T h a m a n w e l l a 1 4 4 A P P E N D I X 1 ( C o n i n u e d ) 9 . P r o v i n c e o f S a b a r a g a m u w a 9.1 K e q a l l e D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1. W a r a k a p o l a 2 . T h u m m a l d e n i y a 3 . N a n g a l l a 4 . U d u h u p u r a 5 . N e l u n d e n i y a 6 . K e g a l l e 7 . S i y a m a l a p i t i y a 8 . R a m b u k k a n a 9 . P a t t a m p i t i y a 1 0 . K i r i n g u d e n i y a 1 1 . H i n g u l o y a 1 2 . U y a n w a t t a 1 3 . D e l g a h a g o d a 1 4 . G a n e t e n n a 1 5 . N a g u l g a m a 1 6 . W i l p o l a 1 7 . D i p p i t i y a 1 8 . H e m m a t h a g a m a 1 9 . M a d u l b o w a 2 0 . D u m b u l u w e w a 21 . K o t t e g o d a 2 2 . P a l l i p o r v a i 2 3 . A r a n a y a k a 2 4 . R u w a n w e l l a 2 5 . Y a t i y a n t o t a 2 6 . D e h i o w i t a 2 7 . A m b e p u s s a . 2 R a t n a p u r a D i s t r i c t S e t t l e m e n t 1 . M a l w a n a 2 . T h i r u w a n a k e t i y a 3 . H e d a n d o l a 4 . R a t n a p u r a t o w n 5 . P o m b a g a l a 6 . K e d a n g a m a 7 . N i v i t i g a l a 8 . K a r a v i t a 9 . U d a K a r a v i t a 1 0 . H a p u g a s d e n a 1 1 . K o t a m u l l a 1 2 . W e l a n d a r a 1 3 . K a h a w a t t e 1 4 . N a m b u l u w a E s t a t e 1 5 . H a w p e S t a t e 1 6 . N i l g a m a 1 7 . O p a n a y a k e 1 8 . P a l m a d u l l a 1 9 . K u r u w i t a - 2 0 . P u s s e l l e 21 . H e m i n g p o r t H i k g a s h e n a E s t a t e 2 2 . A s g a n g a l a - 2 3 . K u r u l m u l l a 2 4 . T h a l a w i t i y a -W i l e g o d a P a d u w a t a 2 5 . M o r a g a l l a 2 6 . R a k w a n a 2 7 . B a l a n g o d a 2 8 . E h e l i y a g o d a t o w n 2 9 . E m b i l i p i t i y a 3 0 . M a d a m p e 1 4 5 A P P E N D I X 2 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E : F E R T I L I T Y S U R V E Y - - M U S L I M S OF S R I L A N K A 1. L O C A T I O N AND I D E N T I F I C A T I O N OF H O U S E H O L D 1.1 D i s t r i c t : 1 .2 D . R . O . D i v i s i o n : 1 .3 G . S . D i v i s i o n : 1 .4 Name o f V i l l a g e : 1 .5 Name o f H o u s e h o l d : 1 .6 A d d r e s s : 1.8 H o u s e h o l d N u m b e r : 1 .9 Name o f I n v e s t i g a t o r : 1 . 1 0 D a t e o f I n v e s t i g a t i o n : 2 . G E N E R A L C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S OF HOUSHOLD MEMBERS N o . R e l a t i o n - S e x A g e M a r i t a l L i t e r a c y L e v e l s h i p t o M/F D a t e o f B i r t h S t a t u s Y e s / N o o f E d -H o u s e h o l d A g e Y r M o n t h ( O v e r 12 u c a -Y r s ) t i o n ( G r a d e ) 2 .1 2 . 2 2 . 3 2 . 4 2 . 5 2 . 6 2 . 7 1 4 6 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 2 . G E N E R A L C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S OF H O U S E H O L D MEMBERS ( C o n t i n u e d ) K n o w n T y p e o f O t h e r A c t i v i t y L a n g u a g e s ( f o r p e r -s o n s 5 y r s a n d o v e r ) F o r E m p l o y e d O n l y P r i n c i p a l O c c u p a t i o n o r k i n d o f w o r k E m p l o y m e n t S t a t u s T y p e o f P l a c e E c o n o m i c o f A c t i v i t y W o r k 2 . 8 2 . 9 2 . 1 0 2 . 1 1 2 . 1 2 2 . 1 3 1 47 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 3 . I N C O M E N o . I n c o m e W a g e , P r o f i t I n c o m e I n c o m e H o u s e h o l d S a l a r i e s f r o m f r o m f r o m a n d o t h e r s a n d r e l a t e d b u s i n e s s r e n t a g r i c u -( r e l a t i o n - r e c e i p t s o r f a r m d i v i d e n d s , l t u r e s h i p t o ( i n c l u d i n g i n t e r e s t , h o u s e h o l d ) s e l f e m p l - e t c . o y m e n t ) 3.1 3 . 2 3 . 3 3 . 4 3 . 5 3 . 6 P e r s o n a n d l i k e o t h e r i n c o m e O t h e r I n c o m e T o t a l I n c o m e F o o d , g o o d s a n d o t h e r s e r v i c e s f r o m e m p l o y e r G o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d f r o m h o u s e h o l d O t h e r s 3 . 7 3 . 8 3 . 9 3 . 1 0 3 . 1 1 1 48 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 4 . H O U S I N G C O N D I T I O N F A C I L I T I E S 4 . 1 P a r t i c u l a r s o f t h e h o u s e : 4 . 2 T e n u r e o f a c c o m m o d a t i o n : 4 . 3 N u m b e r o f r o o m s ( e x c l u d i n g b a t h r o o m , t o i l e t s a n d g a r a g e , i n c l u d i n g k i t c h e n ) : 4 . 4 A m e n i t i e s - - S o u r c e o f W a t e r S o u r c e o f P i p e W e l l T a n k R i v e r o r W a t e r W a t e r S t r e a m P r i v a t e Common P r i v a t e Common D r i n k i n g C o o k i n g B a t h i n g a n d w a s h i n g 4 . 5 T o i l e t f a c i l i t i e s : 4 . 6 M a i n S o u r c e o f E n e r g y E l e c t r i c i t y G a s K e r o s e n e F i r e - O t h e r w o o d C o o k i n g L i g h t i n g 1 4 9 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 5 . H E A L T H 5 . 1 How m a n y m e m b e r s o f h o u s e h o l d , i f a n y s u f f e r e d f r o m a n y i l l n e s s d u r i n g t h e p a s t t w o w e e k s : 5 . 2 W h e t h e r t r e a t m e n t w a s t a k e n : Y e s / N o N a t u r e o f I l l n e s s 5 . 3 I f y e s , i n d i c a t e s o u r c e o f t r e a t m e n t : 5 . 4 I s t h e r e a n y h a n d i c a p i n y o u r f a m i l y : ( s p e c i f y ) 6 . G E N E R A L 6.1 D o e s a n y m e m b e r o f y o u r h o u s e h o l d o w n a n y o f t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1 5 0 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 6 . 2 D o e s a n y m e m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d a c t i v e l y p a r t i c i p a t e i n a n y s o c i e t y : ( S p e c i f y ) 6 . 3 D o e s a n y m e m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s u b s c r i b e r e g u l a r l y t o a n e w s p a p e r , m a g a z i n e , j o u r n a l o r p e r i o d i c a l : ( S p e c i f y ) 7 . F E R T I L I T Y ( F O R M A R R I E D W O M E N ) : 7.1 A g e a t m a r r i a g e : 7 . 2 P r e s e n t a g e : 7 . 3 Was t h e r e a l i v e b i r t h d u r i n g t h e l a s t t w e l v e m o n t h s : 7 . 4 I s s h e p r e g n a n t n o w : I f y e s , w h e n w i l l b e t h e d e l i v e r y : 7 . 5 I s t h i s h e r f i r s t m a r r i a g e : I f n o , g i v e t h e d e t a i l s o f o t h e r m a r r i a g e s : 7 . 6 P r e g n a n c y D e t a i l s : P r e g n a n - O u t c o m e D a t e M o t h e r ' s I f L i v e - I s C h i l d I f c y O r d e r o f P r e g - A g e a t B o r n , Name A l i v e ( A ) D e a d n a n c y Y r . M t h . T i m e o f a n d S e x o r D e a d W h e n , D e l i v e r y M / F (D ) A g e & A / D C a u s e o f D e a t h 2 151 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 . 7 C o n t r a c e p t i v e k n o w l e d g e a n d u s e : 8 . M I G R A T I O N 8.1 A r e y o u l i v i n g h e r e f r o m y o u r b i r t h : I f n o , g i v e d e t a i l s : 8 . 2 I n t h e l a s t 5 y e a r s , d i d a n y f o r m e r m e m b e r o f y o u r h o u s e h o l d l e a v e y o u r home t o l i v e e l s e w h e r e o n a f a i r l y p e r m a n e n t b a s i s ? I f y e s , g i v e d e t a i l s : 1 52 A P P E N D I X 2 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 8 . 3 F o r t h e l a s t o n e y e a r , h a s a n y o n e o f y o u r h o u s e h o l d l e f t y o u r h o u s e o r t e m p o r a r i l y l i v e d o u t o f t h e v i l l a g e f o r m o r e t h a n o n e m o n t h , g i v e d e t a i l s : 1 53 A P P E N D I X 3 3.1 S E L E C T E D S O C I O - E C O N O M I C C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S OF 11 S U R V E Y E D M U S L I M S E T T L E M E N T S S e t t l e - S o c i o - E c o n o m i c E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s m e n t S t a t u s ( % ) L o w e r M i d d l e U p p e r % o f H o u s e s % o f H o u s e % o f w i t h n o h o l d u s i n g H o u s e -L a t r i n e E l e c t r i c i t y h o l d f o r u s i n g P i p e W a t e r f o r D r i n k i n g L i g h t - C o o k -i n g i n g T o p o o r 37 50 1 3 3 3 1 3 0 0 K a t h a n -k u d d y 19 70 1 1 48 71 20 1 1 N i n t a v u r 33 67 0 4 0 60 0 0 E r u k k a l -a m p i d d y 52 44 04 8 0 0 0 1 00 P u t t a l a m 34 63 0 3 1 0 67 0 1 00 M u t h u w e l a 4 2 48 10 0 68 2 5 1 00 W e l i g a m a 31 35 34 0 59 0 41 K e k u n u -g o l l a 7 2 28 0 7 5 0 0 06 H e m m a t h a -g a m a 36 64 0 27 22 3 07 P a n g o l l -a m a d a 39 57 04 0 2 9 0 51 W a n a h a -p u w a 70 30 0 2 7 0 0 10 1 54 A P P E N D I X 3 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 3 . 2 S E L E C T E D O C C U P A T I O N A L AND E D U C A T I O N A L C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S OF 11 S U R V E Y E D M U S L I M S E T T L E M E N T S S e t t l e - O c c u p a t i o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s E d u c a t i o n a l m e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s H u s b a n d ' s O c c u p a t i o n W i f e ' s P e r c e n t a g e W o r k f o r c e o f P a r t i c i - L i t e r a c y p a t i o n (%) P r i m a r y P r o f e s s - O t h e r M a l e F e m a l e i o n a l T o p o o r 7 0 27 03 1 0 73 52 K a t h a n K u d d y 1 9 0 9 7 2 07 8 7 71 N i n t a v u r 5 7 1 0 33 0 6 0 48 E r u k k a l a n -p i d d y 1 3 30 57 1 0 96 92 P u t t a l a m 10 30 6 0 0 9 0 8 6 M u t h u w e l a 0 30 7 0 1 7 9 2 76 W e l i g a m a 0 0 1 00 0 9 0 51 K e k u n u g o l l a 5 7 18 2 5 20 62 51 H e m m a t h a g a m a 0 19 81 03 9 5 74 P a n g o l l a m a d a 30 0 3 67 0 8 7 48 W a n a h a p u w a 71 06 23 70 6 7 54 1 55 A P P E N D I X 3 ( C o n t i n u e d ) 3 . 3 S E L E C T E D D E M O G R A P H I C C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S OF 11 S U R V E Y E D M U S L I M S E T T L E M E N T S S e t t l e - T o t a l P e r c e n t o f A v e r a g e M e a n A v e r a g e I n f a n t m e n t s A v e r a g e P o p u l a t i o n F e m a l e N o . o f B i r t h D e a t h s o f B e l o w A g e A g e a t L i v e ' I n t e r v a l p e r H o u s e - 20 y e a r s M a r r i a g e B i r t h ( i n L i v e h o l d ( i n p e r y e a r s ) B i r t h y e a r s ) F e m a l e H o u s e -h o l d T o p o o r 6 . 4 5 5 1 7 5 . 4 2 . 3 . 0 4 5 K a t h a n k u d d y 5 . 6 5 5 1 5 3 . 7 1 .8 . 0 5 4 N i n t a v u r 5 . 6 4 6 18 4 . 4 2 . 0 . 0 7 6 E r u k k a l a m -p i d d y 6 . 9 61 19 5 . 9 2 . 2 . 0 6 8 P u t t a l a m 5 . 2 48 20 3 . 5 1 . 9 . 0 01 M u t h u w e l a 6 . 0 38 20 6 . 0 1 . 9 . 0 4 6 W e i i g a m a 9 . 0 3 5 2 5 6 . 6 2 .1 . 0 51 K e k u n u g o l l a 6.1 54 1 7 5 . 1 2 . 4 . 0 5 H e m m a t h a -gama 6 . 4 4 7 1 9 4 . 8 2 . 2 . 0 0 1 P a n g o l l a -m a d a 6 .1 44 18 5 . 2 2 . 4 . 0 3 4 W a n a h a p u w a 6 . 8 53 20 5 . 3 2.1 . 0 1 3 1 56 A P P E N D I X 4 S P E C I F I C FORMS I N WH ICH V A R I A B L E S A R E CODED AND A N A L Y S E D I N T H E P A T H A N A L Y S I S V a r i a b l e s F o r m s o f M e a s u r e m e n t C h i l d r e n E v e r B o r n N u m b e r o f l i v e b i r t h s o f f e m a l e h o u s e h o l d h e a d C h i l d M o r t a l i t y H o u s e h o l d ' s S o c i o -E c o n o m i c S t a t u s W i f e ' s A g e a t M a r r i a g e W i f e ' s L e v e l o f S c h o o l i.ng P e r c e n t a g e o f l i v e b i r t h s o f f e m a l e h o u s e h o l d h e a d t h a t e n d e d i n d e a t h b e f o r e 5 y e a r s o f a g e 1 - - L o w e r ( s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s s ) 2 - - L o w e r M i d d l e ( s o c i o - e c o m o n i c c l a s s ) 3 - - U p p e r M i d d l e ( s o c i o - e c o m o n i c c l a s s ) 4 — U p p e r ( s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s s ) A c t u a l a g e a t m a r r i a g e 1 - - G r a d e 5 a n d b e l o w 2 - - G r a d e 6 t o 9 3 — G r a d e 10 a n d a b o v e W i f e ' s P r e s e n t A g e A c t u a l a g e a t t h e t i m e o f s u r v e y 

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