Open Collections

UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

The effect of the Vancouver Advanced Light Rapid Transit System on single family property values Ferguson, Bruce 1984

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1984_A4_6 F47.pdf [ 5.41MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0096005.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0096005-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0096005-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0096005-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0096005-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0096005-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0096005-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0096005-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0096005.ris

Full Text

THE EFFECT OF THE VANCOUVER ADVANCED LIGHT RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM ON SINGLE FAMILY PROPERTY VALUES by BRUCE FERGUSON B.Comm.,Dalhousie U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 8 . A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE(BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION) i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES D e p a r t m e n t Of Commerce And B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA ^ j S e p t e m b e r 1984 © B r u c e F e r g u s o n , 1 984 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and study. I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the head o f my department or by h i s or her r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s understood t h a t copying o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department of Commerce and Business Administration The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date October 10, 1984 DE-6 (3/81) i A b s t r a c t T h i s t h e s i s e x a m i n e s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t s a nd s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g v a l u e s . W h i l e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a c c e s s a n d h o u s i n g v a l u e s h a s been r e c o g n i z e d f o r many y e a r s , i t s r e l e v a n c e h a s i n c r e a s e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s w i t h t h e u s e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p o l i c i e s a s an a c t i v e p l a n n i n g t o o l . I d e n t i f y i n g t h e e f f e c t t h i s w i l l h ave on e x i s t i n g h o u s e s i s i m p o r t a n t t o d e c i s i o n m a k e r s , g o v e r n m e n t b o d i e s , t h e r e a l e s t a t e i n d u s t r y , a n d c u r r e n t homeowners. I n t h i s s t u d y an e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s i s p e r f o r m e d on a n e i g h b o u r h o o d a l o n g t h e r o u t e o f t h e A d v a n c e d L i g h t R a p i d T r a n s i t (ALRT) S y s t e m c u r r e n t l y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . S i n c e t h e s y s t e m w i l l n o t be o p e r a t i o n a l u n t i l 1986, i t i s t h e p r e - s e r v i c e p r i c e i m p a c t s t h a t a r e e x a m i n e d . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s a n d t h e a l i g n m e n t on h o u s i n g p r i c e s i s e x a m i n e d u s i n g m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . T h i s a n a l y s i s a l s o e x a m i n e s t h e t i m i n g o f t h e s e i m p a c t s . A c o m p a r i s o n o f s a l e s a c t i v i t y a r o u n d t h e ALRT c o r r i d o r w i t h an a d j a c e n t c o n t r o l a r e a i s i n c l u d e d t o s e a r c h ' f o r ALRT e f f e c t s o r e x t r a v o l a t i l i t y i n t h e m a r k e t t h a t may n o t be r e f l e c t e d i n t h e p r i c e movements. The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e ALRT s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s a r e a f f e c t i n g h o u s i n g p r i c e s i n 1983 w i t h t h e m a r k e t p a y i n g h i g h e r p r i c e s f o r l o c a t i o n s n e a r e r t o f u t u r e s t a t i o n s . T h i s r e s u l t was n o t e v i d e n t p r i o r t o 1983 ( d a t a was i n c l u d e d b a c k t o 1 9 7 1 ) . No n e g a t i v e e x t e r n a l i t i e s were i d e n t i f i e d f r o m t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e l i n e i t s e l f a n d no e x t r a s a l e s a c t i v i t y o r v o l a t i l i t y was f o u n d i i i n t h e ALRT a r e a . O v e r a l l t h e r e s e a r c h h a s shown t h a t t h e m a r k e t i n V a n c o u v e r i s r e a c t i n g t o t h e ALRT s y s t e m a b o u t two and a h a l f y e a r s p r i o r t o o p e r a t i o n . T h i s r e a c t i o n i s most l i k e l y a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e c a p i t a l i z a t i o n o f t h e e x p e c t e d f u t u r e t r a v e l s a v i n g s a n d a s p e c u l a t i v e e l e m e n t t h a t may be o p e r a t i n g i n t h e m a r k e t now w i t h t h e e x p e c t a t i o n o f g a i n s i n t h e f u t u r e when t h e s y s t e m becomes o p e r a t i o n a l . i i i T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s A b s t r a c t i i L i s t o f T a b l e s v L i s t o f F i g u r e s • v i C h a p t e r I PREFACE 1 1 . 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 1.2 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n F a c i l i t i e s And H o u s i n g V a l u e s 4 1.3 R e s e a r c h O b j e c t i v e 6 1.4 V a l u e Of R e s e a r c h 7 1.5 T h e s i s O u t l i n e 9 C h a p t e r I I LITERATURE REVIEW 13 2.1 I n t o d u c t i o n 13 2.2 T h e o r e t i c a l R e v i e w 14 2.3 E m p i r i c a l R e v i e w ..23 2.4 C o n c l u s i o n 33 C h a p t e r I I I THE ALRT SYSTEM 35 3.1 B a c k g r o u n d 35 3.2 The T e c h n o l o g y 41 3.3 R o u t e D e s c r i p t i o n 43 C h a p t e r I V DATA AND METHODOLOGY 45 4. 1 S t u d y A r e a 45 4.2 M e t h o d o l o g y 50 4.3 The D a t a 60 C h a p t e r V ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 68 5.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 68 5.2 The P r i c e I m p a c t s Of The ALRT R o u t e 69 5.3 C r o s s - s e c t i o n a l A n a l y s i s 69 5.4 A n a l y s i s Of C o v a r i a n c e T e c h n i q u e 72 5.5 D i s t a n c e To L i n e E f f e c t s 84 5.6 S a l e s A c t i v i t y I n The C o r r i d o r 85 5.7 S p a t i a l I m p a c t s Of The ALRT S y s t e m 87 5.8 Summary Of F i n d i n g s 88 5.9 L i m i t a t i o n s And A r e a s Of C o n c e r n 89 C h a p t e r V I SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS 105 6.1 I m p l i c a t i o n s 105 6.2 F u t u r e I m p a c t s 107 6.3 F u t u r e R e s e a r c h 109 BIBLIOGRAPHY 110 APPENDIX A - ALRT CHRONOLOGY V L i s t o f T a b l e s I . S t u d i e s o f Hi g h w a y P r o x i m i t y E f f e c t s 11 I I . S t u d i e s o f H i g h w a y A c c e s s i b i l i t y E f f e c t s 12 I I I . R e s u l t s o f F a l c k e S t u d y o f BART 25 I V . Summary o f E m p i r i c a l R e s u l t s 32 V. ALRT T r a v e l T i m e s 44 V I . D a t a C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 47 V I I . R e s e a r c h M e t h o d o l o g i e s a n d t h e i r A p p l i c a t i o n s 51 V I I I . V a r i a b l e s a n d E x p e c t e d S i g n s ..63 I X . C r o s s - S e c t i o n a l M o d e l s f o r Y e a r s 1971 t o 1982 90 X. The DISTSTAT V a r i a b l e f r o m 1971 t o 1982 f o r C r o s s -s e c t i o n a l 93 X I . V a r i a b l e s i n t h e F i r s t E q u a t i o n 94 X I I . F i n a l M o d e l f o r A n a l y s i s 95 X I I I . V a l u e s o f DISTSTAT i n E a c h Y e a r 97 X I V . D i f f e r e n c e s B e t w een DISTSTAT C o e f f i c i e n t s 98 XV. M o d e l C o m p a r i n g DISTSTAT E f f e c t i n 1983 t o a l l O t h e r Y e a r s T o g e t h e r 99 X V I . E f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n K e n s i n g t o n N e i g h b o u r h o o d ....100 X V I I . DISTSTAT V a l u e s a t D i f f e r e n t D i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e S t a t i o n s 102 X V I I I . T u r n o v e r R a t e s i n t h e C o r r i d o r a n d K e n s i n g t o n 103 X I X . A v e r a g e S e l l i n g P r i c e s a n d P e r c e n t a g e C h anges i n t h e C o r r i d o r a n d K e n s i n g t o n 104 v i L i s t o f F i g u r e s 1 . The ALRT R o u t e 3 2. The M a p p i n g o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S a v i n g s by Mudge 22 3. A c c e s s R o u t e s t o Downtown V a n c o u v e r 36 4. The V a n c o u v e r M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a 48 5. S t u d y A r e a 49 v i i A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t I w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k my c o m m i t t e e members, D r . J o n a t h a n M a r k , D r . M i c h a e l G o l d b e r g , and D r . Tae Oum f o r t h e i r c o n s t a n t c o o p e r a t i o n a n d s u p p o r t i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n and c o m p l e t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s . F u r t h e r s p e c i a l t h a n k s must go t o D r . J o n a t h a n Mark who was p a r t i c u l a r l y g e n e r o u s w i t h h i s t i m e and on more t h a n one o c c a s i o n h e l p e d me t o k e e p t h i s t a s k i n p e r s p e c t i v e . H i s s u p p o r t was i n s t r u m e n t a l i n my s u c c e s s f u l c o m p l e t i o n . S i n c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n i s a l s o e x t e n d e d t o t h e C u m b e r l a n d R e a l t y G r o u p , The R e a l E s t a t e C o u n c i l o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , and t h e U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s D i v i s i o n f o r t h e i r f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e . 1 I . PREFACE 1 .1 I n t r o d u c t i o n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s o c c u p y a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e d e v e l o p a b l e l a n d i n most u r b a n a r e a s . E s t i m a t e s of t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f l a n d u s e d f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s r a n g e f r o m 9% t o 29% i n an u r b a n c e n t e r . . 1 I n t h e p a s t d e c a d e , t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n a n d movement p r o b l e m s have p l a g u e d many u r b a n a r e a s . I n r e s p o n s e t o t h i s p r o b l e m , many c i t i e s h a v e i n i t i a t e d new t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s . I n A l b e r t a , b o t h Edmonton a n d C a l g a r y have r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p e d new t r a n s i t s y s t e m s . T o r o n t o a n d M o n t r e a l a r e b o t h e x p a n d i n g t h e i r l a r g e e x i s t i n g s y s t e m s . P a s t r e s e a r c h 2 l e a v e s l i t t l e d o u b t t h a t c h a n g e s i n a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c a n h a v e e f f e c t s on b o t h u r b a n l a n d a nd h o u s i n g m a r k e t s . The e f f e c t s c a n i n c l u d e b o t h p r i c e e f f e c t s a nd l a n d use e f f e c t s . G o l d b e r g ( 1 9 8 1 ) d i s c u s s e s t h e r o l e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s on t h e u r b a n e n v i r o n m e n t . P r i o r t o t h i s d a t e ( 1 9 7 0 ) t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t s and p o l i c i e s were g e a r e d t o f o r e c a s t s o f u r b a n f o r m a n d d e v e l o p m e n t . However, i n t h e p o s t - 1 9 7 0 e r a t h i n g s h a ve c h a n g e d d r a m a t i c a l l y . I n c r e a s i n g l y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s e n v i s a g e d t o be a means f o r s h a p i n g u r b a n g r o w t h a n d f o r m i n t o more e f f i c i e n t a n d d e s i r a b l e p a t t e r n s . 1 T h e s e f i g u r e s were o b t a i n e d f r o m C a n a d i a n U r b a n T r a n s i t a t a  G l a n c e , p u b l i s h e d by CHMC. They a r e g e n e r a l i z e d f i g u r e s f o r t h e amount o f r o a d s on a c i t y w i d e b a s i s a nd w i t h i n t h e c o r e r e s p e c t i v e l y . 2 The l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w i n C h a p t e r Two w i l l d i s c u s s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s a n d l a n d v a l u e s . 2 W h i l e G o l d b e r g e m p h a s i z e s t h e r o l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a y s i n u r b a n f o r m a n d p o l i c y , a n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t a r e a o f c o n c e r n i s t h e e f f e c t t h e s e f a c i l i t i e s h a v e on t h e p r i c e s o f p r o p e r t i e s n e a r t h e s y s t e m . When a s y s t e m i s p l a c e d i n a s u b s t a n t i a l l y d e v e l o p e d a r e a , any p r i c e e f f e c t s w i l l be p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t t o c u r r e n t p r o p e r t y o w n ers o r t h o s e i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e a r e a . The e f f e c t s o f t h e s y s t e m c o u l d l e a d t o s u b s t a n t i a l c h a n g e s i n n e i g h b o u r h o o d s t h a t may h a v e been v e r y s t a b l e f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s . The A d v a n c e d L i g h t R a p i d T r a n s i t (ALRT) S y s t e m c u r r e n t l y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i s b e i n g b u i l t t h r o u g h a d e v e l o p e d a r e a . Revenue s e r v i c e i s s c h e d u l e d t o b e g i n i n e a r l y 1986. As t h e r o u t e map i n F i g u r e #1 shows, t h e r o u t e e x t e n d s f r o m downtown V a n c o u v e r t o S u r r e y , a d i s t a n c e o f 28 km. The p r o j e c t i s b e i n g c o n s t r u c t e d i n two p h a s e s w i t h t h e f i r s t p h a s e f r o m downtown V a n c o u v e r t o New W e s t m i n s t e r e x p e c t e d t o be o p e r a t i o n a l by 1986. The s e c o n d p h a s e f r o m New W e s t m i n s t e r t o S u r r e y (7 k i l o m e t e r s ) i s e x p e c t e d t o be o p e r a t i o n a l by 1988. The a r e a w h i c h t h e r o u t e c r o s s e s i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y d e v e l o p e d a n d i n c l u d e s b o t h c o m m e r c i a l and r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s . The p u r p o s e of t h i s s t u d y i s t o e x a m i n e t h e p r e - s e r v i c e p r i c e i m p a c t s o f a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t on a s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g m a r k e t . The s t u d y w i l l f o c u s s p e c i f i c a l l y on t h e ALRT s y s t e m c u r r e n t l y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n V a n c o u v e r a n d t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t s i t a f f e c t s . F i g u r e 1 - The ALRT R o u t e LEGEND First and second phase. ALRT Stations: (Ul = underground • 2 mrnmmm Elevated (E) = elevated - 12 IB total • • • • • Tunnel (G) = at grade 4 • • • • • At Grade This system will be accesible to the • • • • • Planned Extensions handicapped with escalators and elevators • Possible Future Routes at underground and elevated stations-4 1.2 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n F a c i l i t i e s And H o u s i n g V a l u e s The r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , p r o p e r t y v a l u e s and u r b a n f o r m have l o n g a t t r a c t e d a t t e n t i o n . I n t h e e a r l y 1 8 0 0 ' s , J o h a n n Von Thunen e x a m i n e d t h e t r a d e - o f f s b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and l a n d r e n t s . S i n c e t h e n , w r i t e r s s u c h a s H a i g ( 1 9 2 6 ) a n d A l o n s o ( 1 9 64) h a v e f u r t h e r d e v e l o p e d t h e t h e o r y t o e x p l a i n t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a c c e s s , t h r o u g h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , a n d p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . E m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e a b o u t t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p h a s been p r o v i d e d i n a v a r i e t y o f u r b a n a r e a s . S t u d i e s i n San F r a n c i s c o , T o r o n t o , W a s h i n g t o n , and P h i l a d e l p h i a h a v e a l l f o u n d p r o p e r t y v a l u e i m p a c t s f r o m e i t h e r an i n c r e a s e i n a c c e s s , o r an a n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e i n a c c e s s p r o v i d e d by p r o p o s e d r a p i d t r a n s i t i n v e s t m e n t s . An a d d i t i o n a l body o f l i t e r a t u r e h a s e x a m i n e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d l a n d v a l u e i n t e r a c t i o n s i n t h e c o n t e x t o f h i g h w a y d e v e l o p m e n t s a n d i m p r o v e m e n t s . The s t u d y , S o c i a l and E c o n o m i c E f f e c t s o f H i g h w a y s , by t h e U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n 1974, e x a m i n e d v a r i o u s h i g h w a y s t u d i e s and s u m m a r i z e d t h e i r f i n d i n g s . They d i s t i n g u i s h e d b e t w e e n p r o x i m i t y e f f e c t s and a c c e s s i b i l i t y e f f e c t s . I n g e n e r a l t h e y f o u n d t h a t r e s i d e n c e s i n c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o h i g h w a y s may h a v e l o w e r p r o p e r t y v a l u e s f r o m n o i s e , p o l l u t i o n , a n d s a f e t y p r o b l e m s . A c c e s s i b i l i t y e f f e c t s , u n l i k e p r o x i m i t y e f f e c t s , a r e g e n e r a l l y p o s i t i v e a n d r e f l e c t t h e a c c e s s g a i n s t o a r e a s t h a t a r e n o t c l o s e e n o u g h t o s u f f e r t h e p r o x i m i t y e f f e c t s d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . T a b l e s I a n d I I a t t h e end o f t h e c h a p t e r s u m m a r i z e some o f t h e s e f i n d i n g s . 5 One o f t h e k e y e l e m e n t s o f t h i s s t u d y i s t h e t i m i n g o f t h e m a r k e t r e a c t i o n t o t h e new t r a n s i t s y s t e m . I n t h e V a n c o u v e r s i t u a t i o n , t h e ALRT s y s t e m i s c u r r e n t l y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n w i t h c o m p l e t i o n o f p h a s e one e s t i m a t e d f o r e a r l y 1986. C l e a r l y , u n d e r t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y w i l l be e x a m i n i n g t h e a n t i c i p a t e d 3 m a r k e t r e a c t i o n s t o a s i t u a t i o n o f i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s s c h e d u l e d t o b e g i n i n 1986. As t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w i n C h a p t e r Two w i l l show, s e v e r a l o f t h e a b o v e m e n t i o n e d s t u d i e s h a v e e x a m i n e d a n t i c i p a t e d r e a c t i o n s i n t h e m a r k e t p r i o r t o a t r a n s i t s y s t e m b e c o m i n g o p e r a t i o n a l . T h i s s t u d y c o v e r s t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1971 t o m i d - 1 9 8 3 w h i c h was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by numerous r e p o r t s on t h e v i a b i l i t y o f r a p i d t r a n s i t u n t i l , i n 1980, t h e c h o i c e o f t h e p r e s e n t ALRT s y s t e m was made. W h i l e n o t o f f i c i a l l y d e s i g n a t e d u n t i l December 1982, t h e downtown t o New W e s t m i n s t e r r o u t e had been i d e n t i f i e d a s t h e p r i o r i t y r o u t e f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s . 3 I have c h o s e n t o r e f e r t o any m a r k e t r e a c t i o n s t h a t o c c u r b e f o r e t h e s y s t e m i s a c t u a l l y o p e r a t i n g a s a n t i c i p a t e d m a r k e t r e a c t i o n s . 6 1 . 3 Research Objective As p r e v i o u s l y mentioned, the o b j e c t i v e of t h i s study i s to examine the p r i c e impacts and market e f f e c t s that the Vancouver ALRT system i s having on s i n g l e f a m i l y residences along the route. More s p e c i f i c a l l y , since the approximate route has been known for se v e r a l years and the system i s c u r r e n t l y under c o n s t r u c t i o n , the study w i l l attempt to measure the a n t i c i p a t e d e f f e c t s before operations a c t u a l l y begin. To t h i s end, the study w i l l attempt to answer the f o l l o w i n g questions: 1) Is pro x i m i t y to a designated s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n determining s i n g l e family housing p r i c e s along the ALRT cor r idor? 2) Is pro x i m i t y to the alignment (while not n e c e s s a r i l y being near a s t a t i o n ) a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r in determining s i n g l e f a m i l y housing p r i c e s along the ALRT cor r idor? 3 ) I f there are p r i c e impacts, what i s the timing of these impacts? 4) Has the s i n g l e family market become more a c t i v e and/or v o l a t i l e from ALRT induced s a l e s ? 5) Are the e f f e c t s of the ALRT system l o c a l i z e d to the s t a t i o n and alignment areas or are they more far reaching s p a t i a l l y ? Questions one, two, and three focus on the p r i c e e f f e c t s of the system. The f i r s t question asks i f there are any measurable e f f e c t s i n a l o c a t i o n near a s t a t i o n . The second question addresses p o s s i b l e negative e x t e r n a l i t i e s caused by e x t r a noise or l o s s of p r i v a c y . The t h i r d question on timing i s included to t r y to f i n d when the market began r e a c t i n g to the ALRT system. 7 The l a s t two q u e s t i o n s a r e d e s i g n e d t o e x a m i n e t h e m a r k e t e f f e c t s i n a somewhat more g e n e r a l s e n s e . Q u e s t i o n f o u r w i l l e x a m i n e t h e o v e r a l l l e v e l o f s a l e s a c t i v i t y i n t h e c o r r i d o r t o l o o k f o r p o s s i b l e s p e c u l a t i o n t h a t may n o t be r e f l e c t e d i n p r i c e s . The l a s t q u e s t i o n a d d r e s s e s t h e s p a t i a l s c o p e o f t h e i m p a c t s . 1.4 V a l u e Of R e s e a r c h The o b j e c t o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o t e s t e m p i r i c a l l y w h e t h e r t h e p l a n n e d ALRT s y s t e m i s h a v i n g any e f f e c t on s i n g l e f a m i l y p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l r e a s o n s why t h i s i s a u s e f u l e x e r c i s e . T h i s t y p e o f r e s e a r c h s h o u l d b e n e f i t t o t h e C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r f o r b u d g e t i n g p u r p o s e s . I n most c i t y s e t t i n g s t h e f i n a n c i a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e a r e a i s h e a v i l y d e p e n d e n t on p r o p e r t y t a x e s . An i n v e s t m e n t t h a t a f f e c t s p r o p e r t y v a l u e s o r a c c e l e r a t e s u r b a n e x p a n s i o n c o u l d a f f e c t t a x r e v e n u e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y . F o r t h i s r e a s o n i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o t r y t o m e a s u r e i f and when c h a n g e s i n p r o p e r t y v a l u e s o c c u r t o h e l p i n f u t u r e m u n i c i p a l b u d g e t i n g . An i d e a t h a t h a s a t t r a c t e d c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n i n r e c e n t y e a r s i s t h a t o f " t a x i n g b a c k " o r r e c a p t u r i n g t h e p u b l i c l y -i n d u c e d i n c r e a s e s i n r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e s . W h i l e t h e r e a r e v a r i o u s f o r m s t h a t s u c h a p o l i c y c o u l d f o l l o w , t h e y n a t u r a l l y assume t h a t s u c h v a l u e i n c r e a s e s o c c u r a n d a r e l a r g e e nough t o make a r e c a p t u r e t a x w o r t h w h i l e . B e f o r e a n y s u c h p o l i c y i s i m p l e m e n t e d one must have f i r m e v i d e n c e a b o u t how t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m i s i n f l u e n c i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . One w o u l d a l s o l i k e t o 8 know i f t h e r e h a v e been any a d v e r s e e f f e c t s on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s t o a s s i s t i n t h e d e s i g n o f any s u b s i d y c o m p e n s a t i o n p a c k a g e t h a t may be p r o p o s e d f o r a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t e d p r o p e r t y o w n e r s . The p r e s e n t s t u d y c a n p r o v i d e an e m p i r i c a l b a s e f o r s u c h " t a x i n g b a c k " a nd r e l a t e d s u b s i d y p o l i c i e s . T h i s t y p e o f r e s e a r c h i s v a l u a b l e f r o m a d e c i s i o n m a k i n g p o i n t o f v i e w . Mudge (1974) s t a t e s : The t r a d i t i o n a l a p p r o a c h t o e v a l u a t i n g u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s h a s been t o c o n s i d e r o n l y u s e r b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s . H owever, many o f t h e n o n -u s e r i m p a c t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n have i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e c i t y a n d i t s r e s i d e n t s a n d may be g r e a t e r i n m a g n i t u d e t h a n t h e more d i r e c t e f f e c t s . G r e a t e r a w a r e n e s s o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f n o n - u s e r b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s i s one r e a s o n f o r t h e i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t i n r a p i d t r a n s i t . The n e e d f o r b e t t e r m easurement and u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s e n o n - u s e r i m p a c t s i s e v i d e n t . W h i l e t h e i n d i r e c t c o s t s and b e n e f i t s a r e o f t e n d i f f i c u l t t o m e a s u r e one c a n see i n p r i n c i p l e t h a t t h e i r i m p o r t a n c e s h o u l d n o t be o v e r l o o k e d . The c u r r e n t a n a l y s i s becomes e v e n more i m p o r t a n t when one r e c a l l s t h e comments by G o l d b e r g i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n . I f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s a r e t o be u s e d a s a p l a n n i n g i n s t r u m e n t t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e i r e f f e c t s c a n n o t be o v e r s t a t e d . I n V a n c o u v e r s e v e r a l p l a n n i n g d o c u m e n t s h a v e e m p h a s i z e d t h e r o l e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e p l a n n i n g c o n t e x t . The R e g i o n a l Town C e n t e r c o n c e p t p r o p o s e d i n 1975 f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r a r e a e m p h a s i z e d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s a n d t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e R e g i o n a l Town C e n t e r s . A more r e c e n t document w o u l d be t h e V a n c o u v e r C o r e p l a n w h i c h e m p h a s i z e d t h e 9 r e l a t i o n s h i p a n d t r a d e o f f b e t w e e n i n n e r c i t y h o u s i n g a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . T h i s a n a l y s i s o f t h e p r i c e i m p a c t s o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m w o u l d be h e l p f u l i n f u t u r e d o c u m e n t s o f t h i s n a t u r e . T h i s t y p e o f r e s e a r c h s h o u l d a l s o be v a l u a b l e t o d e v e l o p e r s and r e a l e s t a t e a g e n t s . S i n c e t h e s e g r o u p s a r e i n v o l v e d i n t h e r e a l e s t a t e m a r k e t on a r e g u l a r b a s i s , a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e e f f e c t s o f p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t s on r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e s c a n o n l y be b e n e f i c i a l t o them. F i n a l l y , t h e s e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s c a n be b e n e f i c i a l t o c u r r e n t homeowners i n an i m p a c t e d a r e a . An i n v e s t m e n t a s l a r g e a n d c o m p l i c a t e d a s t h e ALRT w i l l u n d o u b t e d l y c a u s e a h i g h l e v e l o f u n c e r t a i n t y among homeowners. Once a g a i n , any i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t r e l i e v e s some o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t y c a n o n l y be s e e n i n a h e l p f u l l i g h t . 1.5 T h e s i s O u t l i n e T h i s t h e s i s c o n t a i n s s i x c h a p t e r s i n c l u d i n g t h i s i n t r o d u c t o r y c h a p t e r . C h a p t e r Two c o n t a i n s t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w w h i c h d i s c u s s e s some of t h e t h e o r e t i c a l a n d e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h a b o u t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s a n d p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . C h a p t e r T h r e e i n t r o d u c e s t h e r e a d e r t o t h e ALRT s y s t e m w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e e v e n t s l e a d i n g t o t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m f o l l o w e d by a d e s c r i p t i o n o f i t s t e c h n o l o g y a n d t h e r o u t e i t w i l l f o l l o w . C h a p t e r F o u r p r o v i d e s a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a a n d t h e d a t a b e i n g u s e d i n t h e s t u d y . As w e l l , a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e m e t h o d o l o g y i s p r e s e n t e d w i t h t h e r e a s o n s f o r 10 i t s c h o i c e . The f i f t h c h a p t e r p r e s e n t s t h e s t e p s t a k e n t o a n s w e r t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s p o s e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r and p r o v i d e s a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e f i n d i n g s . The f i n a l c h a p t e r e l a b o r a t e s on t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n C h a p t e r F i v e by r e l a t i n g t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e s t u d y b a c k t o t h e V a l u e of R e s e a r c h s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r . T h i s c h a p t e r a l s o d i s c u s s e s t h e p o s s i b l e f u t u r e i m p a c t s of t h e s y s t e m and o u t l i n e s some a r e a s f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . 11 T a b l e I - S t u d i e s o f H i g h w a y P r o x i m i t y E f f e c t s Highway Study or Source Apparent Effect 1-495 through S p r i n g f i e l d , V i r g i n i a "Community Effects of Highways" Pennsylvania State University, 1973 -5 percent (one time) The Connecticut Turnpike "The Connecticut Turnpike: Ribbon of Hope," University of Connecticut, 1965 -.5 percent (one time) (Annual rate of 4 percent o v e r a l l less 3.9 percent abutting Turnpike for 3 years) An Urban Highway i n the Midwest "Economic and Social Effects of Highways," 1972, page 24 -10 percent (Average for 4 properties) 1-96 i n Farmington, Michigan Proximity Study No. 203, Michigan State Highway Commission, 1965 -16 percent (on square foot basis for small, expensive abutting l o t s ) Detroit-Toledo Expressway, 1-280 "Economic and Social Effects of Highways," 1972, pages 70 and 71, Ohio Study, 1967 Residences within 50 feet of right-of-way declined more than more distant residences of the same age. Realtors expect abutting houses to decline 20 to 30 percent. Ten Highway Projects i n Texas "The Effect of Access on Highway Right of Way Costs and the Determination of Special Benefits," Texas Transportation I n s t i t u t e , Texas A6<M University, 1968 Some losses were noted abutting the highway. 1-264 "Highways and Economic and Social Changes," 1964, page 38, Kentuckv-Louisville-Watterson Property values were depressed nearby. Expressway Study. 1961 Several Highways i n Chicago "Highway Improvements as a Factor i n Neighborhood Change," Resource Management Corporation, 1971 -5 percent near elevated highways and -1 percent near surface and depressed highways 1 2 T a b l e II - S t u d i e s o f H i g h w a y A c c e s s i b i l i t y - E f f e c t s Highway Study or Source Apparent Effect 1-80 Bogota, New Jersey 1-95 Rosedale, Maryland 1-695 and 1-83 Towson, Maryland, 1-495, North Springfield, Virginia "Community Effects of Highways," Pennsylvania State University, 1973 +9 percent (one time effect on market value) The Connecticut Turnpike "The Connecticut Turnpike: Ribbon of Hope," University of Connecticut, 1965 +5 percent (one time e f f e c t — 4 percent per year from 1958 to 1961 less 2.5 percent per year i n control towns) Several Sites in Three States "Highways and Economic and Social Changes," Bureau of Public Roads, 1964, pp. 22-24, California, Texas, and Georgia Studies (1951-64) +8 percent per year Lake Washington Floating Bridge "Highways and Economic and Social Changes," Bureau of Public Roads, 1964, p. 40, Washington Mercer Isle (1956-57) +77 percent over 17 years or 5 percent per year Shore Parkway New York City "Highways and Economic and Social Changes," Bureau of Public Roads, 1964, p. 39, Shore Parkway (1958) +54 percent over 14 years or 4 percent per year Washington, D.C, Metropolitan Area "Relation of Highway Accessibility to Urban Real Estate Value," W. Pendleton, Highway Research Record No. 16, 1963 +.5 percent (one minute less driving time adds $65 to the value of an $8,000 to $20,000 house) 1-45 Dallas, Texas "Some Economic Effects of the Suburban Portion of North Central Expressway," Dallas, Texas, p. 17, 1961 +106 percent over 17 years or 6 percent per year for unimproved land 1 3 I I . LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n T h i s c h a p t e r e x a m i n e s some o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on l a n d u se and l a n d v a l u e i m p a c t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t s . O v e r t h e y e a r s , work by v a r i o u s i n d i v i d u a l s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n s h a s c o n t r i b u t e d t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e body o f k n o w l e d g e r e l a t i n g t o t h e e f f e c t s t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s have on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . M o s t o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e c a n be p l a c e d i n two b r o a d c a t e g o r i e s . One c a t e g o r y i s t h e t h e o r e t i c a l l i t e r a t u r e on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . The s e c o n d c a t e g o r y i n c l u d e s e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s t h a t l o o k t o s u p p o r t t h e t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l s . O f t e n , t h e r e i s n o t a c l e a r l i n e b e t w e e n t h e two c a t e g o r i e s a s many a r t i c l e s c o v e r b o t h a r e a s . H e r e we e x a m i n e b o t h t h e t h e o r e t i c a l a n d e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . A c c o r d i n g t o F a l c k e ( 1 9 8 2 ) , t h e r e h a s been a r e l a t i v e l y g r e a t e r f o c u s on l a n d u s e e f f e c t s t h a n on p r i c e e f f e c t s . H o w e v e r , s i n c e t h e m a i n i n t e r e s t o f t h e p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h i s p r i c e e f f e c t s , o u r r e v i e w c o n c e n t r a t e s on t h e p r i c e i m p a c t l i t e r a t u r e . C o n c e r n i n g t h e e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h , n o t a l l o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d p r i c e i m p a c t s i s r e l e v a n t . The f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s h a v e been c o n s i d e r e d i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e r e l e v a n c e o f e x i s t i n g e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s f o r t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y . The f i r s t f a c t o r r e l a t e s t h e c o m p a r i b i l i t y o f t h e s t u d i e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t y t o t h e ALRT s y s t e m i n V a n c o u v e r . T h i s 1 4 b r o a d c r i t e r i o n was u s e d t o c h o o s e a r t i c l e s f o r f u r t h e r d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s . F o r e x a m p l e , i t was f e l t t h a t r e s e a r c h d e a l i n g w i t h h i g h w a y s was n o t d i r e c t l y a p p l i c a b l e . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e s c a l e o f i n v e s t m e n t i s a m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e b e t ween r a p i d t r a n s i t a n d h i g h w a y s . H i g h w a y s t a k e up c o n s i d e r a b l y more s p a c e a nd t h e i r e f f e c t s c a n s p r e a d o v e r a much l a r g e r a r e a . A f u r t h e r d i f f e r e n c e i s t h e f a c t t h a t r a p i d t r a n s i t o n l y i n v o l v e s " p e o p l e m o v i n g " w h e r e a s h i g h w a y s a l s o i n v o l v e t h e movement o f g o o d s . T h u s , h i g h w a y s c a n have a v e r y d i f f e r e n t s e t o f e f f e c t s on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . A s e c o n d f a c t o r t o be c o n s i d e r e d i s t h e c o m p a r a b i l i t y o f t h e s t u d y a r e a t o V a n c o u v e r . T h i s w o u l d i n c l u d e e x a m i n i n g t h e s i z e o f t h e s t u d y a r e a a s w e l l a s t h e n a t u r e o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s . The l a s t m a j o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s t h e m e t h o d o l o g y u s e d i n t h e s t u d y . R e s e a r c h methods r a n g e f r o m t h o s e o f a p u r e l y d e s c r i p t i v e n a t u r e t o t h o s e w h i c h u s e s o p h i s t i c a t e d s t a t i s t i c a l m o d e l s . 2.2 T h e o r e t i c a l R e v i e w E a r l y work r e l a t i n g l o c a t i o n a n d r e n t s was u n d e r t a k e n by J o h a n n Von Thunen i n t h e e a r l y 1 800's. W o r k i n g i n an a g r i c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g , he was one o f t h e f i r s t w r i t e r s t o r e c o g n i z e a r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s a n d l a n d p r i c e s . He a r g u e d t h a t l a n d h o l d e r s i n more c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s c o u l d pay h i g h e r r e n t s b e c a u s e t h e y h ad l o w e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . T h i s i n i t i a t e d a body o f r e s e a r c h f o c u s i n g on t h e t r a d e o f f b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s a n d l a n d c o s t s . 15 H a i g ( 1 9 26) f u r t h e r e x a m i n e d t h i s t r a d e o f f . I n t h e s i m p l e s t s e n s e , w i t h t h e a s s u m p t i o n s l i s t e d b e l o w , t h i s t r a d e o f f c a n be shown d i a g r a m a t i c a l l y a s f o l l o w s : w "O The m a j o r a s s u m p t i o n s a r e : A. The c i t y i s a f e a t u r e l e s s p l a i n B. A l l p r o d u c t i o n a n d a c t i v i t y o c c u r s i n t h e c i t y c e n t e r C. The p o p u l a t i o n i s u n i f o r m w i t h r e s p e c t t o f a m i l y s i z e , i n c o m e , t r i p s t o CBD D. B u i l d i n g c o s t s a r e e q u a l e v e r y w h e r e E. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s a r e p r o p o r t i o n a l t o d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d . M a k i n g a f u r t h e r a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f demand f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d l a n d a r e z e r o , H a i g a r g u e d t h a t an i m p r o v e m e n t i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n w o u l d c a u s e a d e c r e a s e i n s i t e r e n t s . A more i n t u i t i v e way t o t h i n k o f t h i s i s t o s a y t h a t t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t removes t h e a d v a n t a g e o f a p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n , t h u s c a u s i n g i t s v a l u e t o d e c r e a s e . The r e l a x i n g of t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s w i l l c h a n g e t h i s s i t u a t i o n . D e p e n d i n g on t h e 16 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f t h e demand f o r t r i p s ( w h i c h r e a l i s t i c a l l y i s n o t z e r o ) , t h e v a l u e o f s i t e s w i l l n o t n e c e s s a r i l y d e c r e a s e w i t h a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t . A l c a l y ( 1 9 7 6) shows d i a g r a m a t i c a l l y what c a n h appen when b o t h t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r i p s a n d l a n d a r e n o t e q u a l t o z e r o . AB i s t h e o r i g i n a l b i d r e n t c u r v e w h i c h shows t h e l o c a t i o n s b e t w e e n w h i c h an i n d i v i d u a l i s i n d i f f e r e n t b e c a u s e o f t h e t r a d e o f f between, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s a n d s i t e r e n t . A s s u m i n g t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t c a u s e s a d e c r e a s e i n s i t e r e n t t h e c u r v e s h i f t s t o A'B ( s e e d i s c u s s i o n and a s s u m p t i o n s a b o v e ) . H owever, r e l a x i n g t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f l a n d i s z e r o , t h e demand f o r l a n d i n c r e a s e s c a u s i n g t h e l i n e t o 1 7 s h i f t t o A"B' w h i c h i s a p a r a l l e l s h i f t o u t w a r d s . Under t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s one c a n s e e t h a t r e n t s s h o u l d d e c r e a s e n e a r t h e CBD a n d i n c r e a s e f a r t h e r away. G o l d b e r g ( 1 9 7 0 ) comments on how t h i s s i t u a t i o n c a n l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e i n a g g r e g a t e l a n d v a l u e s . T h i s l e a d s t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t t h a t o p e n s up new a r e a s , l o w e r s b o t h l a n d and h o u s i n g p r i c e s and i n c r e a s e s p u r c h a s e s of l a n d . T h i s i n c r e a s e s t h e a g g r e g a t e v a l u e o f l a n d i n t h e a r e a . The r e s u l t i n g l o w e r d e n s i t y means t h e a g g r e g a t e e x p e n d i t u r e on l a n d i n t h e n e w l y d e v e l o p e d a r e a s w i l l be g r e a t e r t h a n t h e o l d e r , d e n s e r a r e a s . T h i s a g a i n f o l l o w s f r o m t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand. As more o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n s a r e r e l a x e d one c a n s e e t h a t t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s become much more c o m p l i c a t e d . I f one a l l o w s f o r a v a r i e t y o f u s e r s i n a g i v e n c i t y a s w e l l a s a h i e r a r c h y o r s p e c i a l i z a t i o n among c i t i e s , t h e CBD r e n t s may n o t d e c l i n e u n d e r t h e a b o v e c i r c u m s t a n c e s . I f t h e g r o w t h i n CBD l o c a t e d b u s i n e s s e s i s s u f f i c i e n t l y r a p i d , i t c o u l d c a u s e an i n c r e a s e i n t h e v a l u e s i n t h e c i t y c e n t e r a s w e l l a s t h e p e r i p h e r y . W h i l e t h e p r e v i o u s d i s c u s s i o n c o u l d be a p p l i e d t o any a c t i v i t y f r o m c o m m e r c i a l t o r e s i d e n t i a l , t h e d i s c u s s i o n w i l l now f o c u s somewhat more on t h e r e s i d e n t i a l c o m p o n e n t . A l o n s o ( 1 9 6 4 ) , w o r k i n g f r o m vo n T h u nen's i d e a s , e l a b o r a t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y on t h e r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n " d e c i s i o n o f t h e h o u s e h o l d . As a h o u s e h o l d i s u s u a l l y n o t a p r o f i t c e n t e r , A l o n s o assumed t h e h o u s e h o l d m a x i m i z e d t h e f o l l o w i n g u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n : u = u ( q , t , c ) s u b j e c t t o a b u d g e t c o n s t r a i n t y= pc + p ( t ) + k ( t ) 18 where u = h o u s e h o l d u t i l i t y q = l o t s i z e t = d i s t a n c e f r o m CBD c = c o m p o s i t e good y = i n c o m e , assumed t o be f i x e d p = p r i c e o f t h e c o m p o s i t e g o o d , assumed f i x e d p ( t ) = p r i c e o f l a n d , a ssumed t o be a n e g a t i v e f u n c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e k ( t ) = c o m m u t i n g c o s t s , a s sumed t o be a p o s i t i v e f u n c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e D i f f e r e n t i a t i n g t h i s e q u a t i o n and s i m p l i f y i n g t h e f i r s t o r d e r c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e s t h a t i n e q u i l i b r i u m t h e m a r g i n a l r a t e o f s u b s t i t u t i o n b e t ween d i s t a n c e a n d l a n d w i l l be e q u a l t o t h e r a t i o o f t h e i r m a r g i n a l c o s t s . A l o n s o f u r t h e r u s e d t h i s e q u a t i o n t o d e r i v e h i s b i d - r e n t c u r v e s . Mudge a n d A l l e n (1975) d i s c u s s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p a c t s f r o m a c a s h s a v i n g s p o i n t o f v i e w . T h e i r b a s i c p r e m i s e i s t h a t s a v i n g s f r o m a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t w i l l be c a p i t a l i z e d i n t o p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . A new t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t w i l l a f f e c t demand and s u p p l y r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n many m a r k e t s . A m a j o r h y p o t h e s i s i n t h e i r p a p e r i s t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p a c t s w i l l be r e f l e c t e d most c l e a r l y i n m a r k e t s f o r i n e l a s t i c c o m m o d i t i e s . I n t h i s c a s e an i n c r e a s e i n demand w i l l c a u s e i n c r e a s e d p r i c e s s i n c e t h e i n e l a s t i c g o o d c a n n o t i n c r e a s e i n s u p p l y . The s u p p l y o f l a n d 19 h a s , i n t h e s h o r t r u n , been c o n s i d e r e d t o h a v e a v e r y i n e l a s t i c s u p p l y . " T h i s i s f u r t h e r e m p h a s i z e d when one c o n s i d e r s an i m p r o v e m e n t t h a t i s p l a c e d i n a w e l l - d e v e l o p e d a r e a where any i n c r e a s e i n s u p p l y w i l l be r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l when c o m p a r e d t o t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k o f d e v e l o p e d l a n d a n d h o u s i n g . W i t h t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s t h e a u t h o r s a r g u e t h a t t h e s e i m p a c t s c a n be m e a s u r e d i n h e d o n i c p r i c e m o d e l s . I n a s i m p l i f i e d s i t u a t i o n 5 t h i s m e t h o d o l o g y c a n be a p p l i e d t o show t h e a r e a s o f s a v i n g f o r h o u s e h o l d s l o c a t e d i n t h e a r e a o f one i n t e r c h a n g e . The l o c u s o f l o c a t i o n s f r o m w h i c h an i n d i v i d u a l i s i n d i f f e r e n t b e t w e e n d r i v i n g d i r e c t l y t o t h e d e s t i n a t i o n a n d d r i v i n g f i r s t t o t h e i n t e r c h a n g e a n d t h e n t o t h e d e s t i n a t i o n v i a t h e i m p r o v e m e n t i s d e f i n e d by C1DAX= C1DBX + C2DAB ( 1 ) w h e r e : A = l o c a t i o n o f d e s t i n a t i o n ( c h i e f e mployment c e n t e r ) B = l o c a t i o n o f i n t e r c h a n g e X = o r i g i n a t i n g l o c a t i o n (home) Cj = a u t o c o s t p e r m i l e on u b i q u i t o u s s y s t e m C2 = a u t o c o s t p e r m i l e on i m p r o v e m e n t D^g= d i s t a n c e f r o m i n t e r c h a n g e t o u l t i m a t e d e s t i n a t i o n D^= d i s t a n c e f r o m o r i g i n a t i n g l o c a t i o n t o d e s t i n a t i o n D„„= d i s t a n c e f r o m o r i g i n a t i n g l o c a t i o n t o i n t e r c h a n g e " V a r i o u s m o d e l s o f t h e l a n d m a r k e t h a v e d e s c r i b e d t h e s u p p l y o f l a n d t o be i n e l a s t i c i n t h e s h o r t r u n . (Mason 1 9 7 9 ) . 5 The e x a m p l e assumes a r a d i a l , l i m i t e d a c c e s s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t e m a n a t i n g f r o m t h e c h i e f e m ployment c e n t e r , w i t h no n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s . I t s o n l y b e n e f i t i s c a s h s a v i n g s on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e x p e n s e a v a i l a b l e t o t h e u s e r . Presume a l s o t h a t t h e c u r r e n t s y s t e m i s u b i q u i t o u s . 20 R e a r r a n g i n g t h e t e r m s , DAX ~ DBX = C C 2 / C 7 } D (2) o r BAX ~ DBX = K w h e r e K = { C 2 / C 7 ] D ^ The e x t e n t t o w h i c h a new i m p r o v e m e n t i s u s e d w i l l d e p e n d on t h e m a g n i t u d e by w h i c h C1 e x c e e d s C2. The r i g h t h a n d s i d e o f e q u a t i o n 2 i s a c o n s t a n t a n d t h u s t h e f o r m o f t h e e q u a t i o n i s a h y p e r b o l a . The d e g r e e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a v i n g s c a n a l s o be mapped a s a h y p e r b o l a by t h e e q u a t i o n , C D - C D - C D = S 1 AX 1 BX 2 AB where S i s e q u a l t o t h e s a v i n g s . R e a r r a n g i n g t h e t e r m s , DAX ~ DBX = K + S / C 7 F i g u r e #2 shows a m a p p i n g o f t h i s e q u a t i o n . As S i n c r e a s e s , t h e r e l a t e d h y p e r b o l a s b end i n t i g h t e r a n d t i g h t e r . T h u s , maximum s a v i n g s w o u l d t h e o r e t i c a l l y o c c u r f o r someone l o c a t e d e x a c t l y a t t h e i n t e r c h a n g e . Mudge f e e l s t h a t t h e s e s a v i n g s a r e c a p i t a l i z e d i n t o t h e r e a l e s t a t e a s s e t . The d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e Mudge a r t i c l e i n t h e e m p i r i c a l s e c t i o n shows t h a t t h e s e s a v i n g s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e p r i c e o f t h e h o u s e by t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e i n t h e h e d o n i c m o d e l . I n r e a l i t y t h e e x t e n t o f c a p i t a l i z a t i o n d e p e n d s on a s e t o f f a c t o r s . B i j a c ( 1 9 8 2) s u m m e r i z e s t h e i s s u e q u i t e n i c e l y : 21 The i n e l a s t i c s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g i s a n e c e s s a r y , b u t n o t _ s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n f o r c a p i t a l i z a t i o n o f t h e s e s a v i n g s i n t h e v a l u e o f h o u s i n g . The e x t e n t o f c a p i t a l i z a t i o n d e p e n d s on a s e t o f e x p l i c i t a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t an u r b a n h o u s i n g m a r k e t , t h e s u p p l y and demand f o r h o u s i n g , a n d t a s t e s and i n c o m e s o f c o n s u m e r s . One s h o u l d n o t , o f c o u r s e , assume t h a t c o n s u m e r s ' e x p e c t a t i o n s a r e s t a t i c a nd t h a t t h e y b e h a v e as t h o u g h t h e p r e s e n t l e v e l s o f b e n e f i t s w i l l be m a i n t a i n e d f o r e v e r . The a s s u m t i o n o f n o n - s t a t i c e x p e c t a t i o n s i s much more a t t r a c t i v e . I n t h i s c a s e t h e u n c e r t a i n t y i s c r e a t e d by e f f e c t s o f f u t u r e u r b a n g r o w t h , l o n g - r u n i n c r e a s e s i n t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g due_ t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f m a j o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , s h i f t s i n e m ployment p a t t e r n s , c h a n g e s i n employment p a t t e r n s , c h a n g e s i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t e c h n o l o g y a n d c h a n g e s i n t h e f u t u r e l e v e l o f c o n g e s t i o n . 22 23 2 . 3 E m p i r i c a l R e v i e w O v e r t h e y e a r s work by v a r i o u s i n d i v i d u a l s a n d o r g a n i z a t i o n s h a s c o n t r i b u t e d t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e c o l l e c t i o n o f l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o t h e e f f e c t s t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s h a v e on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p a t t e r n s . T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l f o c u s on t h e e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s . S i n c e t h e o b j e c t o f t h i s p a p e r i s t o d i s c u s s t h e p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s o f t h e ALRT on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w w i l l a g a i n f o c u s on s t u d i e s o f s i m i l i a r t y p e s o f s y s t e m s . A m a j o r body o f r e s e a r c h h a s e x a m i n e d t h e Bay A r e a R a p i d T r a n s i t S y s t e m (BART) i n San F r a n c i s c o . The BART I m p a c t P r o g r a m ( B I P ) was a c o m p r e h e n s i v e p o l i c y o r i e n t a t e d e f f o r t u n d e r t a k e n by t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t t o i d e n t i f y , d e s c r i b e , m e a s u r e , a n d p r e s e n t f i n d i n g s a s a c c u r a t e l y a s p o s s i b l e a b o u t t h e i m p a c t s o f a m a j o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t , t h e BART s y s t e m . 6 W h i l e n o t d i r e c t l y c o m p a r a b l e t o V a n c o u v e r ' s ALRT s y s t e m , t h e BART s y s t e m i s a u s e f u l m o d el t o d i s c u s s . The BART s y s t e m c o n s i s t s o f 71 m i l e s o f t r a c k on b o t h s i d e s o f San F r a n c i s c o B ay. T h e r e a r e 34 s t a t i o n s e i t h e r e l e v a t e d , a t g r a d e o r u n d e r g r o u n d . One o f t h e m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n San F r a n c i s c o a n d V a n c o u v e r i s t h e d e g r e e o f h i g h w a y d e v e l o p m e n t . W h i l e V a n c o u v e r h a s v e r y l i t t l e h i g h w a y d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e c i t y , t h e San F r a n c i s c o a r e a h a s an e x t e n s i v e h i g h w a y n e t w o r k . 6 D o r n b u s c h , D a v i d , S t u d y o f D e v e l o p m e n t P a t t e r n s , L a n d Use and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t P r o j e c t . B a r t W o r k i n g P a p e r s , WP-51-5-78, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f H o u s i n g a n d U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , W a s h i n g t o n , 1978. 24 A p p r o x i m a t e l y 8 5 % o f t h e BART l i n e l i e s w i t h i n , b e l o w , o r b e s i d e r i g h t s o f way o f o t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r o u t e s . 7 I n t h e o u t e r a r e a s BART o p e r a t e s more l i k e a commuter t r a i n t h a n r a p i d t r a n s i t . T h e s e f a c t o r s h a v e compounded t h e p r o b l e m o f s e p a r a t i n g t h e a c t u a l e f f e c t s o f BART on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . T a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e s e f a c t o r s , t h e f i n d i n g s o f s e l e c t e d BART r e p o r t s a r e e x a m i n e d . The r e p o r t , S t u d y o f BART's E f f e c t s on P r o p e r t y P r i c e s a n d  R e n t s e x a m i n e d among o t h e r s , t h e f o l l o w i n g two h y p o t h e s e s ; 1. BART c a u s e d an i n c r e a s e i n p r o p e r t y p r i c e s n e a r s t a t i o n s . 2. BART c a u s e d a d e c r e a s e i n p r o p e r t y p r i c e s n e a r s u r f a c e a n d e l e v a t e d t r a c k s . R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s was u s e d t o e x a m i n e t h e s e h y p o t h e s e s i n r e l a t i o n t o f o u r s t a t i o n a r e a s a l o n g BART. The a n a l y s i s u n d e r t a k e n i n v o l v e d a b e f o r e a n d a f t e r c o m p a r i s o n o f p r i c e s . The d e p e n d a n t v a r i a b l e was S 2 / S 1 , where S1 was t h e a c t u a l s a l e s p r i c e i n t h e b e f o r e p e r i o d a n d S2 was f r o m t h e a f t e r p e r i o d ( b o t h a r e i n c o n s t a n t 1975 d o l l a r s ) . The r e p o r t c o v e r e d t h r e e t i m e p e r i o d s f r o m pre-BART t o BART c o n s t r u c t i o n ( b e f o r e s e r v i c e ) , f r o m c o n s t r u c t i o n t o p o s t BART ( a f t e r s e r v i c e ) , a n d f r o m pre-BART t o p o s t BART ( l o n g t e r m ) . F o r t h e t h r e e t i m e p e r i o d s , S2/S1 was r e g r e s s e d on v a r i o u s i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t h a t i n c l u d e d v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g t h e p r o p e r t i e s d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e s t a t i o n a n d t r a c k s . The a d o p t e d r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l p o s t u l a t e d BART's i m p a c t s a s an i n v e r s e l y d i m i n i s h i n g f u n c t i o n o f t h e 7 I b i d , p.4. 25 d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e s t a t i o n o r t r a c k s . The r e p o r t f o u n d t h a t a l o c a t i o n n e a r a s t a t i o n had a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e i m p a c t on p r i c e s i n t h r e e o f t h e f o u r s t a t i o n a r e a s f o r t h e b e f o r e s e r v i c e t i m e p e r i o d . T h i s w o u l d r e f l e c t t h e m a r k e t r e a c t i o n t o t h e a n t i c i p a t e d b e n e f i t s o f BART b e f o r e i t was c o m p l e t e d . F a l c k e c o m p u t e d t h e p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n v a l u e s t h a t c o u l d be e x p e c t e d a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s ( i n f e e t ) f r o m t h e s t a t i o n s ( D B S ) . I n t h e t h r e e a r e a s where t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e s t a t i o n was s i g n i f i c a n t t h e f o l l o w i n g r e s u l t s w ere r e p o r t e d : T a b l e I I I - R e s u l t s o f F a l c k e S t u d y o f BART G l e n P a r k M i s s i o n a n d S o u t h 2 4 t h S t . H a y w a r d DBS P r i c e DBS P r i c e DBS P r i c e % c h a n g e % c h a n g e % c h a n g e 150 18 250 27 1000 8 300 10 500 8 1500 3 500 6 1000 0 2000 1 1000 4 2000 -2 3000 -1 2000 2 2800 -2 4000 -2 2650 2 5000 -3 12000 -4 One c a n s e e f r o m t h i s t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s t a t i o n f a l l s o f f q u i t e d r a m a t i c a l l y a s t h e d i s t a n c e i n c r e a s e s . The r e s u l t s f o r t h e s e c o n d t i m e p e r i o d ( o n c e s e r v i c e h a s s t a r t e d ) showed a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t i n o n l y one a r e a . The a n t i c i p a t e d ' b e n e f i t s o f a 26 l o c a t i o n n e a r a s t a t i o n b e f o r e s e r v i c e s t a r t e d were no l o n g e r e v i d e n t o nce s e r v i c e b e g a n . I n f a c t , f o r one a r e a t h e p r o x i m i t y o f a s t a t i o n h a d a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t on p r o p e r t y p r i c e s . T h e s e r e s u l t s may be p a r t i a l l y e x p l a i n e d by t h e l a c k o f p r o p e r t i e s w i t h i n a h i g h i m p a c t z o n e c l o s e t o t h e s t a t i o n s . Many a r e a s h a v e l a r g e p a r k i n g l o t s t h a t a d d a " b u f f e r " z o n e between t h e s t a t i o n a n d r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s . The l a c k o f i m p a c t s once s e r v i c e s t a r t e d c o u l d a l s o be a t t r i b u t e d • t o t h e s y s t e m s o p e r a t i o n a l p r o b l e m s d a m p e n i n g s p e c u l a t i o n a s s e r v i c e p e r f o r m a n c e f e l l b e l o w f o r e c a s t p e r f o r m a n c e . None o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n s showed p r o x i m i t y t o t h e a c t u a l t r a c k t o h a v e a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on p r o p e r t y p r i c e s . T h i s r e s u l t c o u l d be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e f a c t t h a t a l a r g e p o r t i o n o f t h e l i n e i s l o c a t e d on e x i s t i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r i g h t s o f way w h i c h c o u l d mask t h e e x p e c t e d n e g a t i v e e f f e c t o f t h e BART l i n e i n two ways. F i r s t , t h e l o c a t i o n w i t h i n a n o t h e r r i g h t o f way c o u l d p r e c l u d e any h o u s e s f r o m b e i n g c l o s e e n o u g h t o BART t o be a f f e c t e d . S e c o n d l y , i f n e g a t i v e e x t e r n a l i t i e s a l r e a d y e x i s t e d f r o m a n o t h e r r i g h t o f way, BART may n o t a d d any new m e a s u r a b l e e f f e c t s . The r e p o r t , S t u d y o f P r o p e r t y A c q u i s i t i o n a n d O c c u p a n c y ,  BART's E f f e c t on S p e c u l a t i o n , e x a m i n e d s p e c u l a t i o n 8 i n BART s t a t i o n a r e a s . The p r e s e n c e o f s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s w o u l d mean t h a t a s e c t o r o f t h e m a r k e t e x p e c t e d p r i c e s t o r i s e b e c a u s e S p e c u l a t i o n i s d e f i n e d a s an e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y w h i c h i n v o l v e s t h e b u y i n g a n d h o l d i n g o f r e a l p r o p e r t y i n e x p e c t a t i o n o f p r o f i t i n g f r o m a c h a n g e i n t h e m a r k e t p r i c e . 27 o f BART. S p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y was e x a m i n e d by c o m b i n i n g s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s o f l a n d u s e d a t a w i t h key i n f o r m a n t i n t e r v i e w s . I t was f o u n d t h a t BART i n d u c e d some s p e c u l a t i o n i n c e r t a i n s t a t i o n a r e a s , w i t h t h e a c t i v i t y p e a k i n g a r o u n d t h e t i m e t h e s t a t i o n s were b u i l t a n d d i m i n i s h i n g t h e r e a f t e r . T h i s r e s u l t c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e p r e v i o u s d i s c u s s i o n t h a t i n d i c a t e d some p r i c e a p p r e c i a t i o n i n t h e pre-BART s t a g e t h a t d i m i n i s h e d once BART began o p e r a t i n g . The r e p o r t f o u n d t h e s p e c u l a t i o n o c c u r r e d i n a l l t y p e s o f s m a l l r e a l e s t a t e h o l d i n g s b u t was n o t e x t e n s i v e i n e i t h e r amount o r g e o g r a p h i c a l c o n t e x t . L e e e t a l (1973) s t u d i e d t h e i m p a c t s o f BART on s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e s b e f o r e r e v e n u e s e r v i c e s t a r t e d (most o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n was c o m p l e t e ) . U s i n g c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n d l o n g i t u d i n a l r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , L e e s t u d i e d t h e a n t i c i p a t e d e f f e c t s o f BART. He c o n c l u d e d t h a t BART had a p o s i t i v e , m e a s u r a b l e e f f e c t on r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y i n some, b u t n o t a l l n e i g h b o u r h o o d s . W h i l e t h e p r e c e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n o n l y e x a m i n e s t h r e e o f s e v e r a l BART r e p o r t s , t h e y a p p e a r t o be t h e m a i n r e p o r t s f o c u s i n g on p r i c e e f f e c t s . R e s e a r c h on BART h a s a l s o been u n d e r t a k e n o u t s i d e t h e B I P . A n d e r s o n ( 1 9 7 0 ) s t u d i e d t h e e f f e c t o f r a p i d t r a n s i t on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s by e x a m i n i n g b u i l d i n g p e r m i t d a t a i n downtown San F r a n c i s c o . He e x a m i n e d t h e i n c r e a s e d v a l u e o f b u i l d i n g p e r m i t s a n d c o n c l u d e d t h a t BART h a s h a d a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . However t h e a r t i c l e p r o v i d e s l i t t l e d a t a t o b a c k t h i s c o n c l u s i o n . W h i l e i t a p p e a r s t o be a " n i c e , q u i c k a n d 28 e a s y " a n a l y s i s , i t l a r g e l y i g n o r e s t h e many o t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t c o u l d c o n f o u n d h i s c o n c l u s i o n . H i s a n a l y s i s i s c o n s i d e r a b l y w e a k e r t h a n an a n a l y s i s b a s e d on an e c o n o m e t r i c m o del t h a t a l l o w s f o r s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t i n g o f a s p e c i f i c h y p o t h e s i s . However t h e a r t i c l e d o e s p r o v i d e v a l u a b l e b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n a n d i s u s e f u l f o r t h i s p u r p o s e . D a v i s (1970) e x a m i n e d one s t a t i o n a r e a on t h e BART r o u t e ( G l e n P a r k ) t o see i f i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y was a f a c t o r i n p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . U s i n g m u l t i p l e l i s t i n g s e r v i c e (MLS) d a t a , D a v i s f o u n d a t r e n d o f i n c r e a s e d p r o p e r t y v a l u e s n e a r t h e s t a t i o n . D a v i s a l s o e x a m i n e d t h e t i m e a s p e c t o f t h e s e i n c r e a s e d v a l u e s a n d f o u n d t h a t r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e s i n c r e a s e d i n d i r e c t r e l a t i o n t o d i m i n i s h i n g r i s k t h r o u g h t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y and t o d i m i n i s h i n g t i m e b e f o r e t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m was o p e r a b l e . The d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e t i m e a n d r i s k e l e m e n t s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y p e r t i n e n t t o t h i s s t u d y s i n c e t h e s y s t e m w i l l n o t be o p e r a t i o n a l u n t i l 1986 and a h i g h l e v e l o f r i s k e x i s t s w i t h t h e new t e c h n o l o g y . Mudge (1974) l o o k e d a t t h e e f f e c t t h a t t h e L i n d e n w o l d H i g h S p e e d L i n e h a d on r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e s a l o n g t h e r o u t e . The l i n e r u n s f r o m P h i l a d e l p h i a t o L i n d e n w o l d , New J e r s e y (14 m i l e s ) . W h i l e s i m i l a r t o BART t e c h n o l o g y , a t t h e t i m e o f t h e s t u d y t h e l i n e h a d been i n o p e r a t i o n f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s w h i c h h ad a l l o w e d t h e r e a l e s t a t e m a r k e t t o a d j u s t t o i t s p r e s e n c e . The s t u d y m e a s u r e d t h e e f f e c t o f t h e l i n e t h r o u g h m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s a n d t h e u s e of a c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r . The f i r s t p a r t o f t h e a n a l y s i s s i m p l y c o m p a r e d t h e a v e r a g e s a l e s 29 p r i c e o f r e s i d e n c e s i n t h e c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r w i t h t h o s e i n t h e i m p a c t c o r r i d o r . F o r t h e d i f f e r e n t t y p e s of p r o p e r t i e s , t h o s e i n t h e i m p a c t c o r r i d o r a p p e a r e d t o e x p e r i e n c e more r a p i d p r i c e r i s e s a f t e r t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f s e r v i c e t h a n t h o s e i n t h e c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r . S i n c e t h e r e c a n be p r o b l e m s f r o m t h e n o n -c o m p a r a b i l i t y o f c o n t r o l a r e a s , t h e r e p o r t went f u r t h e r a n d u s e d r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i n t h e s t u d y . The i m p a c t o f t h e l i n e was r e p r e s e n t e d by a s a v i n g v a r i a b l e . 9 They h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t i f t h e l i n e had a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s t h e n t h e i m p a c t c o r r i d o r s a v i n g s v a r i a b l e w o u l d h a v e a l a r g e r r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t t h a n t h a t i n t h e c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r . The r e s u l t s f r o m t h i s a n a l y s i s showed on a v e r a g e a p o s i t i v e s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t on t h e s a v i n g s v a r i a b l e f o r t h e i m p a c t c o r r i d o r a n d a n e g a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n t o r i n s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t i n t h e c o n t r o l a r e a . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t t h e h o u s e s i n t h e ' i m p a c t a r e a b e n e f i t f r o m t h e l i n e . Mudge f o u n d t h a t t h e m a j o r e f f e c t s o c c u r r e d i n t h e s i x month p e r i o d s u r r o u n d i n g t h e o p e n i n g o f t h e l i n e . Mudge e s t i m a t e d t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n t h e c o r r i d o r i n c r e a s e d by an a v e r a g e o f $294 per' h o u s e h o l d . The c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r h o u s i n g v a l u e s were e s t i m a t e d t o h ave d e c r e a s e d by $246 p e r h o u s e h o l d . B o y c e ( 1 9 7 2 ) a l s o s t u d i e d t h e L i h d e n w o l d H i g h S p e e d L i n e t o e x a m i n e i t s e f f e c t s on s i n g l e f a m i l y p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . U s i n g 9 The u s e o f a s a v i n g v a r i a b l e was b a s e d on t h e s a v i n g s t h e o r y d i s c u s s e d by Mudge an d A l l e n . They e s t i m a t e d t h e s a v i n g s f o r d i f f e r e n t a r e a s a r o u n d t h e l i n e a n d i n c l u d e d t h e s e s a v i n g s a s an i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e i n t h e c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r t o make a c o m p a r i s o n . 30 r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , a c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r , a n d a s a v i n g s t h e o r y s i m i l a r t o t h a t by Mudge, B o y c e c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e l i n e h a d p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h i s s t u d y l a c k e d a s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r a n d i m p a c t c o r r i d o r . Lerman e t a l ( l 9 7 7 ) s t u d i e d t h e e f f e c t o f t h e W a s h i n g t o n M e t r o on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n W a s h i n g t o n D . C . The s y s t e m s t u d i e d i s a h e a v y r a i l s y s t e m . One p a r t o f t h e s t u d y e x a m i n e d t h e e f f e c t s o f M e t r o on s i n g l e f a m i l y p r o p e r t i e s . U s i n g r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , Lerman t e s t e d w h e t h e r a p r o p e r t y ' s l o c a t i o n r e l a t i v e t o a s t a t i o n a r e a was s i g n i f i c a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g a p r o p e r t y ' s v a l u e . The s t u d y a l s o a d d r e s s e d a n t i c i p a t e d e f f e c t s o f t h e o p e n i n g of t h e M e t r o s y s t e m by i n c l u d i n g a v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g t h e number o f y e a r s u n t i l o p e n i n g . I n t h r e e s e p a r a t e m o d e l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , i t was f o u n d t h a t b o t h o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e v a r i a t i o n o f p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n W a s h i n g t o n . Lerman c a l c u l a t e d t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f p r i c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o d i s t a n c e t o t h e s t a t i o n . I n a l l t h r e e m o d e l s t h a t were e x a m i n e d t h e s e e l a s t i c i t i e s were n e g a t i v e . The v a l u e s r a n g e d f r o m -.13 t o -.06 f o r t h e v a r i o u s m o d e l s . To m e a s u r e n u i s a n c e e f f e c t s o f a l o c a t i o n t o o c l o s e t o a s t a t i o n L e rman e x a m i n e d t h e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r t h e v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g w h e t h e r a s t a t i o n was a b o v e o r b e l o w g r o u n d . Lerman f o u n d t h a t t h e r e were n e g a t i v e e x t e r n a l i t i e s p r e s e n t i f t h e s t a t i o n was a b o v e g r o u n d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e a u t h o r s h a d t o d i s c o u n t t h i s f i n d i n g a s i n c o n c l u s i v e s i n c e t h e r e were v e r y few o b s e r v a t i o n s . T h i s s t u d y i s p a r t i c u l a r l y s t o n g i n i t s m e t h o d o l o g y w h i c h 31 i s l o g i c a l a n d w e l l e x p l a i n e d . I t i s a l s o v a l u a b l e s i n c e i t m e a s u r e s t h e a n t i c i p a t e d e f f e c t s o f t h e l i n e w h i c h i s a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y . B i j a c ( 1 9 8 2 ) e x a m i n e d t h e i m p a c t o f t h e S p a d i n a s e c t i o n of t h e T o r o n t o subway s y s t e m on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . B i j a c c o m b i n e d a m o d e l of t h e b e n e f i t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a v i n g s w i t h a h e d o n i c p r i c e m o d el o f h o u s i n g t o e x a m i n e t h e i m p a c t o f t h e l i n e on h o u s i n g p r i c e s . He c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e a v e r a g e i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g p r i c e s ( $2237) r e f l e c t e d t h e c a p i t a l i z a t i o n o f t h e e s t i m a t e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a v i n g s . D e s p i t e t h e b r e v i t y o f t h i s l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w i t h a s p r o v i d e d u s e f u l e v i d e n c e o f a c t u a l m a r k e t r e a c t i o n s t o c h a n g e s i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . T a b l e I V s u m m a r i z e s t h e e m p i r i c a l f i n d i n g s . 32 Table IV - Summary of E m p i r i c a l Results STUDY ANTICIPATED OPERATIONAL NEGATIVE RESULTS EFFECTS EFFECTS BART 1 1 BART2 3 LEE DAVIS MUDGE BOYCE LERMAN BI JAC YES YES YES YES NO NO YES N/A INC 2 NO N/A YES YES YES YES YES INC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A INC N/A 1 Falcke, C a j . BART's E f f e c t s on Property P r i c e s and Rents 2 INC=Inconclusive Results 3 Falcke, C a j . Study of Property A c q u i s i t i o n and Occupancy- BART's E f f e c t on Speculation 4 N/A=Not A p p l i c a b l e 33 2.4 C o n c l u s i o n The p u r p o s e o f t h i s l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w h a s been t o f a m i l i a r i z e t h e r e a d e r o f t h i s work w i t h t h e r e c e n t r e s e a r c h i n t h i s a r e a and t o i d e n t i f y u s e f u l r e s e a r c h d e s i g n s f o r t h i s s t u d y . The t h e o r e t i c a l a n d e m p i r i c a l r e v i e w s h a v e r e v e a l e d s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s . The most o b v i o u s o b s e r v a t i o n f r o m t h e t h e o r e t i c a l r e v i e w i s t h e l a r g e number o f f a c t o r s t h a t i n t e r a c t i n t h e p r o p e r t y m a r k e t . The measurement o f any one of t h e s e f a c t o r s i n d i v i d u a l l y w o u l d be i m p r a c t i c a l and f o r t h i s r e a s o n t h i s s t u d y w i l l n o t a t t e m p t t o s i n g l e o u t t h e i n d i v i d u a l f a c t o r s t h a t a r e p r e s e n t i n any p r i c e r e a c t i o n . I n s t e a d , t h e s t u d y w i l l t r y t o i d e n t i f y t h e n e t e f f e c t o f t h e s e f a c t o r s i n t h e f o r m o f p r o p e r t y p r i c e movements. W h i l e i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o o b s e r v e t h e many f a c t o r s i n t h e p r i c e movement i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t t h e y be u n d e r s t o o d b e f o r e o b s e r v i n g t h e more g e n e r a l p i c t u r e r e f l e c t e d i n p r i c e c h a n g e s . T h i s e m p i r i c a l r e v i e w h a s made i t c l e a r t h a t most o f t h e s t u d i e s a r e v e r y s i t e s p e c i f i c . T h i s makes i t d i f f i c u l t t o draw g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s a b o u t t h e e f f e c t s o f r a p i d t r a n s i t i n o t h e r c i t i e s . I t h a s a l s o become c l e a r f r o m t h i s r e v i e w t h a t t h e s t r o n g e r s t u d i e s a r e b a s e d on e c o n o m e t r i c m o d e l s w i t h s o u n d t h e o r e t i c a l b a c k i n g . The use o f m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n h a s b een w i d e s p r e a d a n d t h i s s t u d y w i l l a l s o u t i l i z e t h i s t e c h n i q u e . The s t u d i e s r e v i e w e d h a v e f o c u s e d on p r i c e c h a n g e s a s a m e a s u r e o f t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t y . The 34 p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h w i l l f o l l o w t h i s r o u t e b u t w i l l i n c l u d e a f u r t h e r e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e l e v e l o f s a l e s a c t i v i t y a l o n g t h e c o r r i d o r . I n t h i s way i t may be p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y any ALRT i n d u c e d s a l e s a c t i v i t y t h a t may n o t be r e f l e c t e d i n p r i c e i m p a c t s . Few o f t h e s t u d i e s h a v e f o u n d any n e g a t i v e e x t e r n a l i t i e s c a u s e d by t h e l i n e . I t i s h o p e d t h a t t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e i n t h i s s t u d y w i l l a l l o w a f i r m e r c o n c l u s i o n on t h i s s u b j e c t . 35 I I I . THE ALRT SYSTEM 3.1 B a c k g r o u n d The d i s c u s s i o n and p l a n n i n g f o r r a p i d t r a n s i t t o o k p l a c e f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s b e f o r e t h e a c t u a l d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d t h e ALRT s y s t e m was made i n December o f 1980. W h i l e V a n c o u v e r i s c u r r e n t l y t h e t h i r d l a r g e s t c i t y i n C a n a d a , i t i s t h e l a s t m a j o r c i t y t o d e v e l o p r a p i d t r a n s i t . Two f a c t o r s h a v e compounded V a n c o u v e r ' s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p r o b l e m s and h e l p e d p u s h t h e c i t y t o t h e r a p i d t r a n s i t a l t e r n a t i v e . The f i r s t i s V a n c o u v e r ' s u n i q u e g e o g r a p h i c a l s e t t i n g w i t h l i m i t e d a c c e s s t o downtown. The s e c o n d i s t h e c i t y ' s d e c i s i o n n o t t o d e v e l o p f r e e w a y s i n t o t h e c i t y w h i c h h a s p u t s e v e r e p r e s s u r e on t h e s t r e e t s t h a t r u n downtown. F i g u r e #3 shows t h e m a j o r a c c e s s p o i n t s t o downtown V a n c o u v e r . A p p e n d i x A shows a c h r o n o l o g y o f t h e m a j o r s t u d i e s and d e v e l o p m e n t s , r e l a t e d t o r a p i d t r a n s i t , t h a t h a v e t a k e n p l a c e s i n c e 1970. W h i l e t h e c u t o f f o f 1970 i s a r b i t r a r y , i t i s f e l t t h a t t h e d i s c u s s i o n s p r i o r t o t h a t t i m e were t o o t e n t a t i v e t o h a ve i n f l u e n c e d t h e m a r k e t i n t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The e a r l y 1970's were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by s e v e r a l r e p o r t s w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p o l i t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n and p u b l i c i t y . The f i r s t m a j o r s t u d y was r e l e a s e d i n S e p t e m b e r 1970 by t h e G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t (GVRD) an d B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a H y d r o and Power A u t h o r i t y (BC H y d r o was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t r a n s i t u n t i l 1 9 7 8 ) . F i g u r e 3 - A c c e s s R o u t e s t o D o w n t o w n V a n c o u v e r 37 T h i s r e p o r t recommended t h a t a $300 m i l l i o n r a p i d t r a n s i t s y s t e m s h o u l d be d e v e l o p e d f o r V a n c o u v e r a n d t h e s u r r o u n d i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . The r e p o r t went f u r t h e r t o i d e n t i f y downtown t o New W e s t m i n s t e r a s one o f t h e mai n r o u t e s t o be c o n s i d e r e d f o r f u r t h e r s t u d y . F o l l o w i n g t h e i n i t i a l r e p o r t , t h e GVRD h e l d p u b l i c i n f o r m a t i o n m e e t i n g s t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e p u b l i c s u p p o r t f o r t h e i d e a . O t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t s i n c l u d e d p l a n s f o r s t u d i e s t o l o c a t e s t a t i o n s a n d a t t e m p t s t o c r e a t e s u i t a b l e f i n a n c i a l a r r a n g e m e n t s b e t w e e n t h e d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t . T h r o u g h o u t t h i s t i m e r e g u l a r a r t i c l e s a n d e d i t o r i a l s a b o u t r a p i d t r a n s i t were a p p e a r i n g i n t h e l o c a l n e w s p a p e r s . R a p i d t r a n s i t p l a n n i n g was d e l a y e d i n O c t o b e r 1971 when t h e r e p o r t , R e g i o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a s a GVRD F u n c t i o n was r e l e a s e d by t h e GVRD. I n t h i s r e p o r t , A . C . K e l l y , C h a i r m a n o f t h e GVRD T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o m m i t t e e , a d v o c a t e d t h e i n c r e a s e d u s e o f b u s e s b e f o r e any r a p i d t r a n s i t s y s t e m was t o be d e v e l o p e d . W h i l e t h i s p o s t p o n e d t h e f o r m a l p l a n n i n g somewhat, t h e r e was s t i l l c o n s i d e r a b l e p r e s s c o v e r a g e o f t h e r a p i d t r a n s i t o p t i o n . Two more r e p o r t s were r e l e a s e d i n F e b r u a r y a n d M a r c h o f 1972. I n F e b r u a r y , A P r e l i m i n a r y S t u d y o f LRT i n V a n c o u v e r was c o m p l e t e d by Tom P a r k i n s o n f o r t h e GVRD. Once a g a i n t h i s r e p o r t o u t l i n e d p o s s i b l e r o u t e s a n d d i s c u s s e d t h e t y p e s o f s y s t e m s t h a t w o u l d be a v a i l a b l e . I n M a r c h , t h e r a p i d t r a n s i t r e p o r t , Downtown V a n c o u v e r T r a n s i t C o n c e p t s was r e l e a s e d w h i c h f o c u s e d on t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t r a n s i t i n t h e downtown c o r e . P o l i t i c a l l y , 1972 saw s t a t e m e n t s f r o m t o p o f f i c i a l s i n b o t h B.C. H y d r o a n d t h e m u n i c i p a l g o v e r n m e n t s s a y i n g t h a t t h e a r e a 38 must h a v e r a p i d t r a n s i t t o a l l e v i a t e t h e g r o w i n g t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n p r o b l e m s . Numerous e d i t o r i a l s f u r t h e r e m p h a s i z e d t h e n e e d f o r r a p i d t r a n s i t a n d u r g e d t h e g o v e r n m e n t t o g e t on w i t h f o r m a l p l a n n i n g . The y e a r s 1973 and 1974 saw l i t t l e f o r m a l p l a n n i n g o f a l o n g t e r m n a t u r e . M o s t a t t e n t i o n was f o c u s e d on t h e d i s p u t e s b e t w e e n t h e m u n i c i p a l g o v e r n m e n t s a n d t h e p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t . One o f t h e m a j o r c o n t r o v e r s i e s c o n c e r n e d t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s f o r t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m . The p r o v i n c e f e l t i t s h o u l d p l a n i t s i n c e i t w o u l d be p a y i n g f o r i t , w h e r e a s t h e GVRD f e l t i t was b e t t e r s u i t e d t o do t h e p l a n n i n g . The p r o b l e m s c o n t i n u e d w i t h m i n o r r e s o l u t i o n s t h r o u g h o u t 1975. Over t h i s - t i m e some p r o p o s a l s were p u t f o r w a r d b u t n o t h i n g a c t u a l l y m a t e r i a l i z e d . D u r i n g 1975, i n t e r e s t i n r a p i d t r a n s i t i n c r e a s e d w i t h t h e work on t h e L i v a b l e R e g i o n P l a n . The r e p o r t , LRT-A D e s c r i p t i o n  a n d D e f i n i t i o n - A B a c k g r o u n d R e p o r t f o r t h e L i v a b l e R e g i o n was c o m p l e t e d i n May 1975 f o r t h e GVRD. T h i s r e p o r t , a s w e l l a s t h e a c t u a l f i n a l r e p o r t e m p h a s i z e d t h e n e e d f o r LRT t o make t h e p l a n w o r k . Many b u s i n e s s a n d g o v e r n m e n t l e a d e r s s a y t h e y w i l l l o c a t e i n a R e g i o n a l Town C e n t e r o n l y i f t h e r e i s a f i r m commitment t o p r o v i d e LRT s e r v i c e . ( R e g i o n a l  Town C e n t e r s : A P o l i c y R e p o r t . November 1975, p. T2T5 I n 1975 t h e GVRD a l s o p r o d u c e d a r e p o r t e n t i t l e d , Terms o f  R e f e r e n c e f o r a P r e l i m i n a r y D e s i g n o f LRT f o r G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r . W h i l e i t a p p e a r s f r o m t h i s d i s c u s s i o n t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l e p r o g r e s s was b e i n g made i n t h e f o r m o f s e v e r a l r e p o r t s , i t w o u l d be 39 f a i r l y s a f e t o s a y t h a t t h e y d i d n o t b r i n g t h e s y s t e m much c l o s e r t o a c t u a l c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a n i t was i n 1970. F o r most o f 1976 and 1977 n o t h i n g f o r m a l was a c c o m p l i s h e d i n t e r m s o f s t u d i e s o r d e v e l o p m e n t s . The v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t s t r i e d t o work o u t f i n a n c i n g p r o b l e m s a n d p l a n n i n g d i s a g r e e m e n t s . S e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t p r o p o s a l s were s t u d i e d s u c h a s t h e a e r o b u s a n d c a b l e c a r p r o p o s a l s . By 1978 p l a n n i n g became more f o r m a l i z e d a g a i n . I n A u g u s t 1978, R a p i d T r a n s i t T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t s 1 and 2 were r e l e a s e d . Once a g a i n t h e s e r e p o r t s i d e n t i f i e d t h e p r i o r i t y r o u t e s and showed t h a t any r o u t e t o New W e s t m i n s t e r w o u l d h a v e t o f o l l o w t h e G r a n d v i e w C u t , a r a i l r i g h t - o f - w a y a l r e a d y i n e x i s t e n c e . A l s o i n 1978 t h e GVRD a u t h o r i z e d t h e p r e p a r a t i o n of t h r e e r e p o r t s r e l a t i n g t o t r a n s i t . I n December 1979, t h e s e r e p o r t s were r e l e a s e d . R e p o r t One, R e g i o n a l T r a n s i t S t r a t e g y , d e t e r m i n e d t h a t LRT was n e e d e d and i d e n t i f i e d t h e p r i o r i t y r o u t e s , s t a t i o n s l o c a t i o n s , and showed p r e l i m i n a r y s t a t i o n d e s i g n s . R e p o r t Two showed a e r i a l p h o t o g r a p h s o f p o s s i b l e r o u t e a l t e r n a t i v e s . The t h i r d r e p o r t o u t l i n e d bus i m p r o v e m e n t s t o be made w h i l e LRT was b e i n g p l a n n e d . I n m i d 1980 a f o u r t h r e p o r t was r e l e a s e d t h a t d i s c u s s e d t h e t y p e s o f s y s t e m s t h a t were u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I n December 1980 B i l l V a n d e r Z a l m , t h e P r o v i n c i a l M i n i s t e r i n c h a r g e o f t r a n s i t , a n n o u n c e d t h e c h o i c e o f t h e ALRT t e c h n o l o g y ( s e e 3.2, The ALRT T e c h n o l o g y ) . By t h i s p o i n t i n t i m e , t h e p l a n f o r an ALRT r o u t e was w e l l u n d e r way w i t h t h e downtown t o New W e s t m i n s t e r r o u t e b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d a s t h e f i r s t p r i o r i t y . By 40 t h e m i d d l e o f 1981, t h e p r e l i m i n a r y s e r v i c e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s h ad been c h o s e n . W h i l e t h i s r e p o r t g a v e d e t a i l e d r o u t e d e s c r i p t i o n s and s t a t i o n l a y o u t s , t h e r e w e re s t i l l some a r e a s u n d e r d i s p u t e i n t e r m s o f r o u t i n g . M o s t n o t a b l e was t h e c o n t r o v e r s y a r o u n d C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e . The P r o v i n c i a l G o vernment was a d v o c a t i n g an e l e v a t e d t r a c k t h r o u g h t h e a r e a w h i l e t h e r e s i d e n t s a n d l o c a l m e r c h a n t s ( s u p p o r t e d by t h e C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r ) w a n t e d an u n d e r g r o u n d r o u t e . B e c a u s e o f t h i s d i s p u t e two p u b l i c h e a r i n g s were h e l d (December 1, 1981 a n d J u n e 2, 1982) and a s t o r e f r o n t i n f o r m a t i o n d i s p l a y was o p e r a t e d by B.C. T r a n s i t b e t w e e n November 1981 a n d M a r c h 1982. I n t h e end t h e p r o v i n c e ' s p l a n t o r u n an e l e v a t e d l i n e i n t h e e a s t l a n e o f C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e was a d o p t e d . The r e a s o n g i v e n by t h e p r o v i n c e was t h a t t h e t u n n e l w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e c o s t o f t h e p r o j e c t and w o u l d a l s o c a u s e a d e l a y i n c o m p l e t i o n . As t h e c h r o n o l o g y shows c o n s t r u c t i o n was s t a r t e d on t h e t e s t s e c t i o n ( T e r m i n a l A v e n u e ) i n F e b r u a r y 1982 when P r e m i e r B e n n e t t p a r t i c i p a t e d i n s o d t u r n i n g c e r e m o n i e s . S i n c e t h a t t i m e t h e r e h a v e been s e v e r a l p u b l i c d i s p l a y s o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m . Many o f t h e s e d i s p l a y s i n c l u d e d t h e "mock-up" d i s p l a y c a r w h i c h a r r i v e d i n 1982. On J u n e 24 1983, t h e 1.1 km t e s t s e c t i o n o f t r a c k was o p e n e d and two c a r s were o p e r a t e d f o r d e m o n s t r a t i o n p u r p o s e s d u r i n g t h e summer o f 1983. On O c t o b e r 1, 1983 t h e c o s t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e s y s t e m was r e v i s e d u p w a r d t o $854 m i l l i o n - an i n c r e a s e o f 17%. T h i s i n c r e a s e was t o pay f o r a d d i t i o n a l c a r s t o i n c r e a s e t h e s y s t e m c a p a c i t y , m o d i f i c a t i o n t o s t a t i o n d e s i g n s , a n d a t h i r t y m i l l i o n 41 d o l l a r i n c r e a s e i n s a l e s t a x on t h e p r o d u c t s b e i n g u s e d i n t h e s y s t e m . By O c t o b e r 1983, c o n s t r u c t i o n h a d s t a r t e d a l o n g t h e c o m p l e t e r o u t e a n d c o n t i n u e s a t t h e t i m e o f t h i s w r i t i n g . 3.2 The T e c h n o l o g y A b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e t e c h n o l o g y i n v o l v e d i n t h e ALRT s y s t e m i s n e c e s s a r y f o r two r e a s o n s . F i r s t l y , i t i s v a l u a b l e f o r a r e a d e r n o t f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e V a n c o u v e r s y s t e m t o p r o v i d e some u s e f u l b a c k g r o u n d m a t e r i a l . S e c o n d l y , a s t h e d i s c u s s i o n w i l l show, t h e s y s t e m u s e s new t e c h n o l o g i e s w h i c h may be an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n how t h e m a r k e t p e r c e i v e s t h e r i s k , b e n e f i t , and c o s t o f t h e s y s t e m . The ALRT s y s t e m was d e v e l o p e d by t h e U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n D e v e l o p m e n t C o r p o r a t i o n (UTDC), an O n t a r i o c r o w n c o r p o r a t i o n . ALRT c o n s i s t s o f a u t o m a t e d , e l e c t r i c a l l y p o w e r e d t r a i n s t h a t o p e r a t e on s t a n d a r d gauge s t e e l r a i l s . T h e r e a r e t h r e e i t e m s t h a t m e r i t some d i s c u s s i o n . The a u t o m a t e d n a t u r e o f t h e s y s t e m means t h a t t h e r e w i l l be no d r i v e r s on t h e t r a i n . O p e r a t i o n s w i l l be c o n t r o l l e d by t h r e e s e p a r a t e c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s t h a t c o v e r a l l f u n c t i o n s r a n g i n g f r o m s c h e d u l i n g a n d r o u t i n g t o t h e a c t u a l s a f e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m . T h i s t e c h n o l o g y i s n o t t o t a l l y new w i t h some s y s t e m s i n Germany (German F e d e r a l R a i l w a y a n d p a r t s o f t h e B e r l i n Subway) c u r r e n t l y u s i n g i t . I t w i l l a l s o be u s e d on t h e ALRT s y s t e m i n S c a r b o r o u g h , O n t a r i o e x p e c t e d t o open i n 1985. The i n d i v i d u a l c a r s w i l l e a c h be p o w e r e d by two l i n e a r i n d u c t i o n m o t o r s ( L I M ) . T h e s e m o t o r s a r e s i m i l a r t o o r d i n a r y 42 e l e c t r i c a l m o t o r s e x c e p t t h e y a r e b a s i c a l l y " s t r e t c h e d o u t f l a t " w i t h a m e t a l p l a t e a l o n g t h e b o t t o m , n e x t t o t h e r e a c t i o n r a i l . I n t u i t i v e l y , t h e c u r r e n t o f t h e m o t o r a nd r e a c t i o n r a i l a r e n o t p e r f e c t l y i n s t e p s o an e l e c t r o - m a g n e t i c e f f e c t i s c r e a t e d w h i c h p u l l s t h e v e h i c l e a l o n g . To b r a k e , t h e L I M c u r r e n t i s r e v e r s e d , t h u s s l o w i n g t h e t r a i n down a s t h e d i r e c t i o n o f f o r c e i s c h a n g e d . U n l i k e c o n v e n t i o n a l s y s t e m s , t h e w h e e l s do n o t p r o v i d e t h e d r i v i n g f o r c e . A l s o , t h e s y s t e m e l i m i n a t e s any g e a r s o r t r a n s m i s s i o n a s t h e m o t o r o p e r a t e s i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f t h e w h e e l s . A n o t h e r u n i q u e f e a t u r e o f t h e ALRT i s t h e s t e e r a b l e a x l e s . N o r m a l l y t h e w h e e l s a r e h e l d p a r a l l e l by t h e r a i l t r u c k . H owever, t h e ALRT s y s t e m a l l o w s t h e w h e e l s t o move s o t h e y a r e l i n e d up s t r a i g h t on c u r v e s . T h i s f e a t u r e s h o u l d r e d u c e wear on t h e w h e e l s a n d r e d u c e t h e s q u e a l t h a t t h e t r a d i t i o n a l w h e e l s w o u l d c r e a t e when t u r n i n g a c o r n e r . I t a l s o a l l o w s t h e ALRT ' t o t a k e t i g h t e r c o r n e r s . T h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s h a v e been t e s t e d f o r t h o u s a n d s o f m i l e s on t h e UTDC t e s t t r a c k , h o w e v e r , t h e y have n e v e r been u s e d u n d e r a c t u a l o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s . W h i l e most o t h e r p a r t s o f t h e ALRT t e c h n o l o g y a r e c o n v e n t i o n a l , p r o v e n i t e m s , one c a n s e e t h a t t h e new t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e among t h e most i m p o r t a n t s y s t e m s on t h e v e h i c l e s . One c o u l d a l m o s t go a s f a r a s t o s a y t h a t t h e m e c h a n i c a l s u c c e s s o f t h e w h o l e s y s t e m i s l a r g e l y d e p e n d e n t on t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e L I M ' s a n d s t e e r a b l e t r u c k s . T h i s f a c t s h o u l d be k e p t i n m i n d f o r t h e l a t e r d i s c u s s i o n o f how t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s a r e c a p i t a l i z e d i n t o p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . 43 3.3 R o u t e D e s c r i p t i o n As t h e map i n f i g u r e #1 shows, t h e f i r s t p h a s e o f t h e ALRT r o u t e e x t e n d s f r o m downtown V a n c o u v e r t o New W e s t m i n s t e r , a d i s t a n c e o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 21 k i l o m e t e r s . T h i s s e c t i o n has two k i l o m e t e r s u n d e r g r o u n d , t h i r t e e n k i l o m e t e r s e l e v a t e d , and s i x k i l o m e t e r s a t g r a d e . T h e r e a r e f i f t e e n s t a t i o n s i n t o t a l i n p h a s e one w i t h n i n e o f t h o s e l o c a t e d i n V a n c o u v e r , f o u r i n B u r n a b y , a n d two i n New W e s t m i n s t e r . Two s t a t i o n s a r e u n d e r g r o u n d , n i n e a r e e l e v a t e d , a n d f o u r a r e a t g r a d e ( s e e map f o r p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n s ) . When t h e s y s t e m i s o p e r a t i o n a l i n 1986, two t o f o u r c a r t r a i n s w i l l r u n a t i n t e r v a l s r a n g i n g f r o m 1 3/4 m i n u t e s t o f i v e m i n u t e s , up t o 20 h o u r s p e r d a y . The s e c o n d p h a s e o f t h e p r o j e c t i s t h e e x t e n t i o n o f t h e r o u t e f r o m New W e s t m i n s t e r t o S u r r e y , a d i s t a n c e o f s e v e n k i l o m e t e r s . T h r e e new s t a t i o n s w i l l be a d d e d t o t h e r o u t e . P l a n n i n g f o r t h i s p h a s e i s t a k i n g p l a c e i n 1984 w i t h c o n s t r u c t i o n e x p e c t e d t o s t a r t i n 1985, and o p e r a t i o n s e x p e c t e d t o b e g i n i n 1988. B.C. T r a n s i t e s t i m a t e s t h e t r a v e l t i m e s shown i n T a b l e V. 44 Table V - ALRT T r a v e l Times Approximate Travel Times Between Stations in Minutes (Includes Stops) 45 I V . DATA AND METHODOLOGY 4.1 S t u d y A r e a The s t u d y a r e a i s l o c a t e d i n V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , t h e t h i r d l a r g e s t c i t y i n C a n a d a . The c i t y h a s a p o p u l a t i o n o f 414,338 ( 1 9 8 1 ) . I f one i n c l u d e s t h e s u r r o u n d i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a (CMA) s w e l l s t o 1,268,183 ( 1 9 8 1 ) . F i g u r e 4 shows V a n c o u v e r c i t y a n d t h e CMA. The a r e a w i t h i n V a n c o u v e r upon w h i c h t h i s s t u d y f o c u s e s i s shown i n F i g u r e 5. The w e s t e r n b o u n d a r y i s C l a r k D r i v e w i t h t h e e a s t e r n b o u n d a r y b e i n g B o u n d a r y Road. The s t u d y i n c l u d e s p r o p e r t i e s w i t h i n a p p r o x i m a t e l y 500 m e t e r s o f t h e a l i g n m e n t . The K e n s i n g t o n n e i g h b o u r h o o d , an a r e a a d j a c e n t t o t h e ALRT s t u d y c o r r i d o r , h a s been i n c l u d e d a n d i s a v a i l a b l e f o r c o m p a r i s o n p u r p o s e s when a d d r e s s i n g t h e f o u r t h a n d f i f t h r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s . W h i l e t h e ALRT r o u t e c r o s s e s s e v e r a l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , t h i s s t u d y i s l i m i t e d t o s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g w i t h i n V a n c o u v e r . T h i s l i m i t a t i o n f a c i l i t a t e d d a t a c o l l e c t i o n s i n c e t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c d a t a was a v a i l a b l e f r o m one s o u r c e . I f o t h e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s were i n c l u d e d t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n t a s k w o u l d h a v e i n c r e a s e d e n o r m o u s l y . The c u r r e n t d a t a b a s e p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n on 13064 s a l e s a n d h a s been j u d g e d t o be l a r g e enough f o r a v a l i d s t u d y . W h i l e t h e s t u d y a r e a i s p r e d o m i n a n t l y s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n c e s i t d o e s c o n t a i n s e v e r a l n odes o f c o m m e r c i a l a n d h i g h e r i n t e n s i t y l a n d u s e s . T h i s a d d s t o t h e v a l u e o f t h e 46 s a m p l e a nd makes i t f a i r l y t y p i c a l o f most s i n g l e f a m i l y a r e a s . A m a j o r c o m m e r c i a l a r e a i s l o c a t e d a l o n g C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e a n d i n c l u d e s a m i x o f s m a l l e r s h o p s a nd m i x e d u s e c o m m e r c i a l b u i l d i n g s . The a r e a ' s s o u t h e r n b o u n d a r y i s K i n g s w a y w h i c h i s a m a j o r c o m m e r c i a l a r e a and a r t e r i a l r o a d . T a b l e VI s u m m a r i z e s some i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e d a t a a n d s t u d y a r e a o v e r t h e p e r i o d o f s t u d y . T a b l e VI - Data C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s CHARACTERISTIC 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 MEAN SALPRICE 21928 25382 32659 44502 49484 52222 55882 54671 54880 76851 107674 83029 81789 H OF OBS 265 362 511 608 606 504 412 436 714 849 445 506 223 MEAN DISTSTAT 1506 1372 1395 1431 1408 1433 1451 1376 1411 1465 1449 1429 1467 MEAN DISTLINE 824 783 774 785 787 767 755 794 803 794 833 786 799 MEAN AGE 33 33 35 37 37 36 35 34 36 45 45 45 46 MEAN LOTSIZE 4193 4126 4116 4004 4045 4156 4143 4 100 4103 4104 4148 4185 4117 MEAN DISTCBD 120 122 123 123 122 122 126 127 126 120 122 124 123 F i g u r e 4 - T h e V a n c o u v e r M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a 49 F i g u r e 5 - S t u d y A r e a 50 4.2 M e t h o d o l o g y C h o o s i n g t h e a p p r o p r i a t e m e t h o d o l o g y t o d e a l w i t h t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s p o s e d e a r l i e r began w i t h a r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on t h e p r i c e i m p a c t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . T h i s t a s k was g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e d by t h e work o f F a l c k e ( 1 9 8 2 ) . F a l c k e p r o d u c e d two d o c u m e n t s f o r t h e U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , one b e i n g an a n n o t a t e d b i b l i o g r a p h y on t h e i m p a c t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n v e s t m e n t a nd t h e o t h e r a document d i s c u s s i n g t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s f o r a s s e s s i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t y i m p a c t s . T a b l e V I I shows a t a b u l a t i o n o f t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s r e v i e w by F a l c k e a nd t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n s . F a l c k e d i s c u s s e s t h i r t e e n d i f f e r e n t m e t h o d o l o g i e s a n d c a t e g o r i z e s them a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n s . Among t h e most f r e q u e n t l y u s e d methods a r e e c o n o m e t r i c a n d s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s , u r b a n s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s , l i t e r a t u r e s u r v e y a n d c a s e s t u d i e s , c o n t r o l a r e a s a nd t a b u l a t i o n s , a n d key i n f o r m a n t i n t e r v i e w s a n d a p p r a i s a l s . The c l a i m by F a l c k e t h a t t h i s s u r v e y o f m e t h o d o l o g i e s i s f a i r l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e t y p e o f r e s e a r c h b e i n g u n d e r t a k e n d o e s n o t a p p e a r t o be u n r e a s o n a b l e . E s p e c i a l l y e v i d e n t i n t h e t a b l e i s t h e e x t e n s i v e u s e o f e c o n o m e t r i c a n d s t a t i s t i c a l m e thods i n t h e e x - p o s t i m p a c t c a t e g o r y . The most w i d e l y u s e d s t a t i s t i c a l method f o r p r i c e i m p a c t s i s m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s (MRA) ( F a l c k e 1 9 8 2 ) . MRA a l l o w s f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e p a r a m e t e r s o f a h y p o t h e s i z e d Table VII - Research Methodologies and Their Applications METHOD DESCRIP-TIVE EXPLOR-ATORY - APPLICATION - A S S E S S I M P A C T S - EVALUATE EX ANTE EX POST ALTERNATS. TEACHING, INFLUENCE TOTAL RESEARCH POLIC LITERATURE SURVEY, CASE STUDIES KEY INFORMANTS, APPRAISALS DELPHI TECHNIQUE ANALYST ' S JUDGEMENT SURVEY, MAPPING CONTROL AREAS, TABULATIONS INPUT/OUTPUT ANALYSIS MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING URBAN (SIMULATION) MODELS THEORETICAL ANALYSIS (MICRO-ECONOMIC) ECONOMETRIC, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FACTOR ANALYSIS DYNAMIC SIMULATION 19 8 7 16 13 10 19 36 13 2 1 5 17 18 20 43 27 1 3 26 30 4 6 52 24 67 3 6 TOTAL 42 50 85 17 78 14 292 52 r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a s i n g l e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and s e v e r a l i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . S u ppose f o r a g i v e n p r o b l e m t h e t r u e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t ween t h e r e s p o n s e o r d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a n d members o f a s e t o f i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i s known. The i n v e s t i g a t o r i s t h e n i n a p o s i t i o n t o u n d e r s t a n d , p r e d i c t , a nd p e r h a p s e v e n c o n t r o l t h e r e s p o n s e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e r e a r e v e r y few s i t u a t i o n s i n p r a c t i c e i n w h i c h t h e t r u e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w een v a r i a b l e s c a n be d e t e r m i n e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , one i s f o r c e d , t h r o u g h t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o f t h e o r y and e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e , t o d e v e l o p m o d e l s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e i n some way t h e m a i n f e a t u r e s o f t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h e r e s p o n s e v a r i a b l e . F r e q u e n t l y t h e s e " a p p r o x i m a t i n g " m o d e l s , i f c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h c a r e , h a v e a r e a s o n a b l y s i m p l e s t r u c t u r e a n d y e t a r e p o w e r f u l e nough t o a i d i n t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f p o l i c y q u e s t i o n s and i n t h e f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f u n d e r l y i n g t h e o r y . 1 0 MRA h a s become p o p u l a r b e c a u s e i t s t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s i s i n t u i t i v e l y e a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d w h i l e b e i n g v e r y p o w e r f u l i f u s e d p r o p e r l y . t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l c a r e f u l e c o n o m e t r i c a n a l y s e s u t i l i z i n g m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s . The h a l l m a r k o f t h e s t u d i e s i s t h a t t h e a n a l y s t s n o t o n l y know t h e i r s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s , b u t t h e y a l s o have a t h o r o u g h g r a s p o f t h e d a t a b a s e and t h e u n d e r l y i n g phenomena so t h a t t h e a n a l y s i s becomes t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f p a r a m e t e r i n a g i v e n m o d e l and t h e t e s t i n g o f t h e o r y and h y p o t h e s i s . 1 1 T h i s t y p e o f work i s c o n t r a s t e d w i t h t h e s t u d i e s t h a t m i s u s e MRA by i n c l u d i n g a l a r g e number o f v a r i a b l e s o r e q u a t i o n s s o l e l y t o 1 0 M i l l e r , R o b e r t a n d W i c h e r n , Dean, I n t e r m e d i a t e B u s i n e s s  S t a t i s t i c s : A n a l y s i s o f V a r i a n c e , R e g r e s s i o n , a n d Time S e r i e s , H o l t , R i n e h a r t a n d W i n s t o n , T o r o n t o , 1977 p. 177. 1 1 F a l c k e , C a j 0. M e t h o d o l o g i e s F o r A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t s o f  M a j o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n F a c i l i t i e s on L a n d Use and L a n d P r i c e s , R e p o r t t o t h e U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , 1982. 53 s e a r c h f o r s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The use o f MRA i n t h e h o u s i n g c o n t e x t i s b a s e d on t h e p r e m i s e t h a t t h e v a l u e o f a h o u s e i s b a s e d on a b u n d l e o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s a n d n o t j u s t t h e b r i c k a n d m o r t a r . 1 2 A u t h o r s s u c h a s Mark ( 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 8 0 ) , Lerman ( 1 9 7 7 ) , Mudge ( 1 9 7 4 ) , a n d R i c h a r d s o n , V i p o n d , a n d F u r b e y (RVF) (1974) h a v e e x a m i n e d t h i s f o r m o f t h e h o u s i n g p r i c e m o d e l . M ost f r e q u e n t l y , t h e a c t u a l s a l e p r i c e o f t h e u n i t i s u s e d a s t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w i t h v a r i o u s i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s b e i n g i n c l u d e d . A l l o f t h e w r i t e r s h ave g e n e r a l l y a g r e e d on t h e r a n g e o f i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t o be i n c l u d e d . RVF (1974) a n d Mark ( 1 9 7 7 ) i n a comment on t h e RVF a r t i c l e , e x a m i n e d f o u r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f model s p e c i f i c a t i o n . They were a h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s m o d e l where t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s were c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e u n i t i t s e l f , a p u r e s p a t i a l m o d e l where t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b e d t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e u n i t i n t o p o g r a p h i c a l a n d s p a t i a l t e r m s , an a c c e s s i b i l i t y m odel where t h e p r i m a r y v a r i a b l e was d i s t a n c e t o t h e CBD, a n d an a r e a p r e f e r e n c e m o d e l where t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d where t h e u n i t i s l o c a t e d . B o t h p a p e r s a g r e e d ( a l t h o u g h f o r d i f f e r e n t r e a s o n s ) t h a t no s i n g l e m o d e l was c l e a r l y s u p e r i o r a n d t h a t a h y b r i d m o d e l i n c l u d i n g f a c t o r s f r o m a l l f o u r a r e a s was t h e b e s t s p e c i f i c a t i o n . RVF s t a t e t h a t t h e i r r e s u l t s do n o t a l l o w them 1 2 Z e r h s t , R o b e r t a nd G a r y W. E l d r e d , " I m p r o v i n g M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n V a l u a t i o n M o d e l s U s i n g L o c a t i o n a n d H o u s i n g Q u a l i t y V a r i a b l e s , " A s s e s s o r s J o u r n a l , 12, 1 ( M a r c h 1 9 7 7 ) . 54 t o c h o o s e one p a r t i c u l a r m o d e l b e c a u s e t h e R - s q u a r e d v a l u e s a r e so c l o s e t o g e t h e r , a n d t h e r e f o r e t h e y a g r e e t h a t a h y b r i d m o d e l s h o u l d be t e s t e d . M a r k , h o w e v e r , t a k i n g a somewhat more s c i e n t i f i c a p p r o a c h h a s a n o t h e r r e a s o n f o r c h o o s i n g t h e h y b r i d m o d e l . B e c a u s e many o f t h e v a r i a b l e s ( a t l e a s t i n o u r s t u d y ) a r e s o h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d , i t i s t h e c a s e t h a t one v a r i a b l e may a l s o be m e a s u r i n g t h e e f f e c t o f a n o t h e r v a r i a b l e . F o r e x a m p l e , b e c a u s e LOTSIZE a n d DISTCBD a r e so h i g h l y c o l l i n e a r we c a n n o t c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c m o d e l ( w i t h o u t DISTCBD) i s m e a s u r i n g o n l y t h e e f f e c t s of t h e s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s . Thus we n e e d t o e s t i m a t e an e q u a t i o n t h a t i n c l u d e s b o t h L O T SIZE and DISTCBD so a s t o m e a s u r e t h e e f f e c t s o f e a c h s t a n d a r d i z e d f o r e a c h o t h e r . F o r t h i s r e a s o n we h a v e e s t i m a t e d a h y b r i d e q u a t i o n w h i c h i n c l u d e s t h e v a r i a b l e s f r o m a l l f o u r m o d e l s . Lerman (1977) a n d Mudge ( 1 9 7 4 ) l i k e w i s e i n c l u d e v a r i a b l e s f r o m c a t e g o r i e s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e d e s c r i b e d a b o v e . F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s t h e m o d e l i n t h i s s t u d y w i l l i n c l u d e v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g ; A) P h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e u n i t s u c h a s l o t s i z e , number o f rooms and a g e . B) N e i g h b o u r h o o d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s u c h a s t y p e s o f z o n i n g , p r e s e n c e o f s c h o o l s a n d p a r k s , a n d d e n s i t y m e a s u r e s . C) L o c a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s u c h a s t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t ( C B D ) . D) S o c i a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s u c h a s mean h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e , h o u s e h o l d s i z e , a n d e d u c a t i o n l e v e l s . E) T r a n s i t v a r i a b l e s s u c h a s t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e n e a r e s t ALRT s t a t i o n a n d d i s t a n c e t o t h e a l i g n m e n t . The b a s i c m o d e l w i l l be o f t h e f o r m Y = a + 0 ; X / + 0 2 X 2 . . 0aZn+ e 55 w h e r e : Y = d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ( a c t u a l s a l e s p r i c e ) a = c o n s t a n t 0 = c o e f f i c i e n t o f i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s X = i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s ( c h a r a c t e r i s t i c d e s c r i p t o r s and i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s ) e = e r r o r t e r m I n m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e e r r o r t e r m s i n t h e m o d e l . M u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y r e s u l t s when t h i s c o n d i t i o n i s n o t met and c a n c a u s e t h e t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s . t o be l a r g e r t h a n t h e t r u e v a l u e s . W i t h t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f a c o e f f i c i e n t b e i n g u s e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e t - t e s t f o r t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s , m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y c a n c a u s e i n a c c u r a t e r e s u l t s . T h i s f a c t o r c a n make t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s t e n u o u s . I n t h e h o u s i n g s e t t i n g , t h e r e i s h i g h p o t e n t i a l f o r c o l l i n e a r i t y b e t w e e n t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . One must k e e p t h i s p r o b l e m i n m i n d i n t h e m o d e l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s t a g e o f t h e a n a l y s i s a n d f u r t h e r must use t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x t o c h e c k f o r i t s p r e s e n c e i n t h e a n a l y s i s . C o n s i d e r a t i o n w i l l be g i v e n t o i s s u e s s u r r o u n d i n g m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r . I n any m o d e l l i n g s i t u a t i o n t h e p r i n c i p l e o f p a r s i m o n y must be k e p t i n m i n d . B a s i c a l l y , t h i s means t h a t i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o k e e p t h e m o d e l a s s i m p l e a s p o s s i b l e t o e n h a n c e i t s u n d e r s t a n d a b i l i t y a n d e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r . The u s e t o w h i c h a m o d e l w i l l be p u t i s an i m p o r t a n t 56 i n i t i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n m o d e l d e s i g n . I n t h i s c a s e t h e m o d e l i s n o t b e i n g u s e d t o p r e d i c t h o u s i n g p r i c e s b u t w i l l be u s e d t o t e s t t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s . S e v e r a l a u t h o r s h a v e d i s c u s s e d t h i s s i t u a t i o n . 1 3 As l o n g a s t h e n o n - i m p a c t i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s do n o t c o v a r y w i t h i m p a c t i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t h e n t h e a c c u r a c y of t h o s e c o e f f i c i e n t s , a s p r e d i c t o r s , i s s e c o n d a r y t o t h e s t u d y . The a c c u r a c y of t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s i s most i m p o r t a n t . As l o n g a s one c a n d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s on t h e p r i c e t h e n t h e g o a l o f t h e s t u d y i s a c h i e v e d . F rom t h i s p o i n t o f v i e w i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h e a n a l y s t d o e s n o t o m i t any v a r i a b l e s t h a t do c o v a r y w i t h t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s . I f v a r i a b l e s were o m i t t e d t h a t were c o r e l a t e d w i t h t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s , m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y c o u l d r e s u l t a s t h e e r r o r t e r m s m e a s u r e d t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e o m i t t e d v a r i a b l e s . T h i s i s n o t t o s a y t h a t t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e n o n - i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s s h o u l d be f o r g o t t e n a l l t o g e t h e r . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t s i g n s of t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e a s e x p e c t e d s o t h a t t h e m o d e l makes i n t u i t i v e s e n s e . W i t h MRA t h e r e i s a l a r g e d e g r e e o f f l e x i b i l i t y i n c h o o s i n g t h e p r o p e r m o d e l s p e c i f i c a t i o n . T h i s s t u d y w i l l u t i l i z e two t y p e s o f m o d e l s t o e x a m i n e t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s , w i t h e a c h m o d e l m a k i n g a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e f i n a l c o n c l u s i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e ALRT's e f f e c t s . 1 3 See t h e a p p e n d i x of L erman ( 1 9 7 4 ) . 57 The f i r s t method i s t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a p p r o a c h where a s e p a r a t e m o d el i s s p e c i f i e d f o r e a c h y e a r i n t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . I n t h i s c a s e a m o d e l i s s p e c i f i e d f o r e a c h y e a r f r o m 1971 t o 1983. E a c h y e a r ' s m o del w i l l i n c l u d e s e v e r a l i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s w h i c h c a n c h a n g e f r o m y e a r t o y e a r . The o b j e c t i s t o e x a m i n e t h e v a r i a b l e s m e a s u r i n g t h e ALRT's e f f e c t s t o s e e w h e t h e r t h e y a r e s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h e e q u a t i o n s . W h i l e t h i s m e thod a l l o w s one t o e x a m i n e t h e e f f e c t s i n any i n d i v i d u a l y e a r i t d o e s n o t a l l o w f o r a s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t o f w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t h a s c h a n g e d f r o m y e a r t o y e a r . The s e c o n d t y p e o f m o d e l a l l o w s f o r s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s o f w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t o f an i n d i v i d u a l v a r i a b l e h a s c h a n g e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m one y e a r t o a n o t h e r . 1 " T h i s t y p e o f a n a l y s i s w i l l be v a l u a b l e i n j u d g i n g w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t o f t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s h a s c h a n g e d a s t h e l i n e i s p l a n n e d and b u i l t . T h i s a p p r o a c h p o o l s a l l t h e d a t a o v e r t h e y e a r s . By s p e c i f y i n g a s e r i e s o f dummy v a r i a b l e s , a n d c o m b i n a t i o n o f dummies a n d t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i t a l l o w s one t o t e s t f o r v a r y i n g e f f e c t s b e t w e e n t h e y e a r s c o v e r e d i n t h e m o d e l . A s i m p l i f i e d e x a m p l e w i l l h i g h l i g h t t h i s a p p r o a c h . I f s a l e s p r i c e was d e p e n d e n t on l o t s i z e a n d w h e t h e r t h e h o u s e s o l d i n p e r i o d one o r two, t h e m o d e l c o u l d be s p e c i f i e d i n t h e f o r m : 1" F o r a more d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s m e t h o d o l o g y s e e Kmenta ( 1 9 7 1 ) . 58 Y = a + )S L + S Z ( + E where Y = s a l e s p r i c e a = c o n s t a n t L = l o t s i z e Z = time such that t = 1 i f p e r i o d 1 t = 0 i f p e r i o d 2 E = e r r o r term Then the model c o u l d be broken down f o r each p e r i o d : P e r i o d 1 Y = ( a + 0 ) + 0 L + E P e r i o d 2 Y = a + .0L + E T h i s model a l l o w s the Y i n t e r c e p t to vary depending on the year t h a t the s a l e took p l a c e . D i a g r a m a t i c a l l y : 2 1 ; > -l o t s i z e I t i s then p o s s i b l e to t e s t whether there i s a s i g n i f i c a n t 59 d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n y e a r s b y t e s t i n g t h e h y p o t h e s i s : HQ : 6 -0 H y : e * 0 I t i s f u r t h e r p o s s i b l e t o a l l o w t h e e f f e c t o f l o t s i z e t o v a r y b e t w e e n y e a r s . I n t h i s c a s e o n e i s a l l o w i n g t h e s l o p e o f o f t h e l i n e t o c h a n g e a s w e l l a s t h e i n t e r c e p t . T h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n w o u l d b e c o m e Y + a + 0 L + 0 Z f + 5 Z r L + E T h e m o d e l w o u l d t h e n b e : P e r i o d 1 Y = ( a + 9) + (0 + 6 ) L + E P e r i o d 2 Y = a + / 3 L + E D i a g r a m a t i c a l l y : L _ _ > l o t s i z e O n e c a n a l s o t e s t w h e t h e r t h e c h a n g e i n s l o p e i s s i g n i f i c a n t b y t e s t i n g t h e h y p o t h e s i s : 6 0 HQ : 6 = 0 H ; : 5 •* 0 Thus, t h i s f i n a l model i s the l e a s t r e s t r i c t i v e since i t allows the e f f e c t s of each v a r i a b l e to change from year to year. To answer the fourth research question, namely, has the s i n g l e family housing market become more a c t i v e and/or v o l a t i l e from ALRT induced sales ?, a comparison w i l l be made between the c o r r i d o r study area and the Kensington neighbourhood. The answer to the f i n a l question regarding the s p a t i a l scope of the ALRT e f f e c t s w i l l be based on the complete a n a l y s i s . 4.3 The Data The primary data base used i n t h i s a n a l y s i s was c o l l e c t e d from the f i l e s of the B r i t i s h Columbia Assessment A u t h o r i t y (BCAA), the body charged with determining the property values throughout the province each year. For each housing u n i t , these f i l e s provide information on s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , improvements to the u n i t , i t s l o c a t i o n , i t s zoning and the a c t u a l t r a n s a c t i o n p r i c e s . This information was augmented to create other v a r i a b l e s necessary for the study. A large p r o p o r t i o n of the impact v a r i a b l e s involved measurements from d e t a i l e d maps of the study area. The l i s t of v a r i a b l e s to be considered in t h i s study i s shown i n Table V I I I . This t a b l e gives the name of the v a r i a b l e , i t s d e f i n i t i o n , and the expected sign or e f f e c t that the v a r i a b l e w i l l have on the sal e p r i c e i n the housing equation. 61 The v a r i a b l e s l i s t e d a r e f a i r l y t y p i c a l o f t h o s e i n c l u d e d i n most h e d o n i c h o u s i n g e q u a t i o n s . The v a r i a b l e s u n d e r t h e p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s e c t i o n a r e s e l f - e x p l a n a t o r y . A q u e s t i o n mark u n d e r t h e e x p e c t e d s i g n c o l u m n i n d i c a t e s t h a t i t i s n o t c l e a r w h e t h e r t h e v a r i a b l e w i l l h a v e a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e e f f e c t on t h e p r i c e o f t h e u n i t . E x a m p l e s a r e t h e SCH, PARK, and CEM v a r i a b l e s . W h i l e t h e r e h a s been c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h on t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s on p r i c e s , i t i s n o t c o n c l u s i v e w h e t h e r t h e y h a v e a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e e f f e c t . The number o f b a t h r o o m s i n a u n i t was n o t a v a i l a b l e i n t h e p r i m a r y d a t a b a s e . The v a r i a b l e PLUMB, i n d i c a t i n g t h e number o f p l u m b i n g c o n n e c t i o n s , s e r v e s a s a p r o x y f o r t h e number o f b a t h r o o m s i n a u n i t . I n t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e c a t e g o r y t h e z o n i n g and d e n s i t y v a r i a b l e s were g e n e r a t e d f r o m t h e BCAA f i l e s . The v a r i a b l e s i n d i c a t i n g t h e p r e s e n c e o f s c h o o l s (SCH1 and SCH3), c e m e t e r i e s (CEM1 and CEM3), and p a r k s (PRK1 a n d PRK3) were g e n e r a t e d f r o m map o b s e r v a t i o n s . The maps u s e d f o r t h i s p u r p o s e were s e c t i o n a l maps f r o m t h e V a n c o u v e r C i t y E n g i n e e r i n g D e p a r t m e n t . The s c a l e o f t h e s e maps i s 1:400 a n d t h e y show t h e l o c a t i o n o f s c h o o l s , p a r k s , a n d c e m e t e r i e s a s w e l l a s s h o w i n g t h e d i s t r i c t l o t , b l o c k a n d l o t numbers f o r a l l p a r c e l s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . D e t a i l e d r o u t e maps were p r o v i d e d by B.C. T r a n s i t and were a d d e d t o t h e E n g i n e e r i n g maps. The DISTCBD v a r i a b l e was c r e a t e d on a b l o c k by b l o c k b a s i s f r o m m e a s u r e m e n t s on t h e a b o v e m e n t i o n e d maps. F o r e x a m p l e , a l l h o u s e s i n t h e same b l o c k w o u l d r e c e i v e t h e same d i s t a n c e t o t h e 62 CBD. The CBD p o i n t u s e d was t h e c o r n e r o f G r a n v i l l e a n d West G e o r g i a S t r e e t . The d i s t a n c e s were g r o u p e d by b l o c k f o r p r a c t i c a l r e a s o n s i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e d a t a s i n c e t h e measurement f r o m e a c h i n d i v i d u a l u n i t c o u l d n o t be j u s t i f i e d on a t i m e b a s i s . S i n c e t h e d i s t a n c e s a r e q u i t e l a r g e t o downtown i t was f e l t t h a t u s i n g 200 f o o t d i s t a n c e u n i t s w o u l d n o t s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e r e s u l t s . The s o c i a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s were c r e a t e d f r o m t h e c e n s u s i n f o r m a t i o n i n 1971, 1976, and 1981. B e c a u s e t h e c e n s u s i s o n l y done e v e r y f i v e y e a r s t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a r e o n l y i n c l u d e d f o r c e n s u s y e a r s . S i n c e t h e i n f o r m a t i o n was c o l l e c t e d on an e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a b a s i s , t h e s e v a r i a b l e s were u s e d a s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e g e n e r a l c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e s u r r o u n d i n g n e i g h b o u r h o o d . The t r a n s i t a n d i m p a c t r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s were c r e a t e d t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f maps'. A l l o f t h e t r a n s i t r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s i n t h e ALRT c o r r i d o r were m e a s u r e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r e a c h p r o p e r t y t h a t s o l d o v e r t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . I n t h e K e n s i n g t o n a r e a t h e D I S T L I N E a n d DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s were c r e a t e d on a b l o c k by b l o c k b a s i s s i m i l a r t o t h e DISTCBD v a r i a b l e . A g a i n , s i n c e t h e d i s t a n c e s a r e v e r y l a r g e the. l o s s o f a c c u r a c y d o e s n o t a p p e a r s e r i o u s . I t i s t h e s e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s t h a t w i l l be t e s t e d t o see i f t h e y a r e s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t o r s t o t h e p r i c e o f a p r o p e r t y . 63 T a b l e V I I I - V a r i a b l e s a n d E x p e c t e d S i g n s V A RIABLE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTIC VARIABLES SIGN D E F I N I T I O N SALPRICE d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e - a c t u a l s e l l i n g p r i c e o f u n i t CONPRICE a c t u a l s e l l i n g p r i c e o f u n i t i n c o n s t a n t 1981 d o l l a r s AGE age o f h o u s i n g u n i t i n y e a r s D71AGE TO D83AGE i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n YR71 t o YR83 a nd AGE ROOMS number o f rooms D71ROOMS TO D83ROOMS i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d ROOMS LOTSIZE l o t a r e a i n s q u a r e f e e t D71 LOTS TO D83LOTS i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d LOTSIZE PLUMB # o f p l u m b i n g c o n n e c t i o n s D71 PLUM TO D83PLUM i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d PLUMB F I R E dummy v a r i a b l e f o r t h e p r e s e n c e o f a f i r e p l a c e 1=yes 0=no D71FIRE TO D83FIRE i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d F I R E 64 BASE dummy v a r i a b l e f o r p r e s e n c e o f a basement 1=yes 0=no t h e D71 BASE TO D83BASE i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d BASE HARDWOOD dummy v a r i a b l e f o r h a r d w o o d f l o o r l = y e s 0=no D71 HARD TO D83HARD i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d HARDWOOD ALTER dummy v a r i a b l e a l t e r a t i o n s 1=yes 0=no f o r D71ALTER TO D83ALTER i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d ALTER GARAGE dummy v a r i a b l e f o r p r e s e n c e o f g a r a g e 1=yes 0=no D71GARAG TO D83GARAG i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d GARAGE HEAT dummy v a r i a b l e f o r t y p e o f h e a t i n g s y s t e m 1=gas 0 = o t h e r D71 HEAT TO D83HEAT i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d HEAT ZONING AND NEIGHBOURHOOD VARIABLES SCH1 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g i f s c h o o l i s on b l o c k o r b l o c k f a c e 1=yes 0=no 65 D71SCH1 TO D83SCH1 ? SCH3 ? D71SCH3 TO D83SCH3 ? CEM1 ? CEM2 ? PRK1 ? D71PRK1 TO D83PRK1 ? PRK3 ? D71PRK3 TO D83PRK3 ? NONRES1 ? D71NON1 TO D83NON1 ? i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d SCH1 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g i f s c h o o l i s on t h e b l o c k f a c e o r a d j a c e n t b l o c k s 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d SCH3 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g i f c e m e t e r y i s on b l o c k o r b l o c k f a c e l = y e s 0=no dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g i f c e m e t e r y i s on t h e b l o c k o r a d j a c e n t b l o c k s 1=yes 0=no dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g i f p a r k i s on b l o c k o r b l o c k f a c e 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d PRK1 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g i f p a r k i s on t h e b l o c k f a c e o r a d j a c e n t b l o c k s 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d PRK3 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g a t l e a s t one p a r c e l on t h e b l o c k o r b l o c k f a c e i s z o n e d f o r n o n r e s i d e n t i a l u s e 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n 66 N0NRES3 ? D71NON3 TO D83NON3 ? DENSE 1 ? D71DEN1 TO D83DEN1 ? DENSE3 D71DEN3 TO D83DEN3 ? D I S T L I N E D7 1 L I N E TO D83LINE DISTSTAT D71 STAT TO D83STAT ? y e a r s a n d NONRES1 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g a t l e a s t one p a r c e l on t h e b l o c k f a c e o r a d j a c e n t b l o c k i s z o n e d f o r n o n r e s i d e n t i a l use 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d NONRES3 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g a t l e a s t one p a r c e l on t h e b l o c k o r b l o c k f a c e i s z o n e d f o r h i g h e r d e n s i t y s i n g l e f a m i l y u n i t s 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d DENSE 1 dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g a t l e a s t one p a r c e l on t h e b l o c k f a c e o r a d j a c e n t b l o c k i s z o n e d f o r h i g h e r d e n s i t y s i n g l e f a m i l y u s e 1=yes 0=no i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d DENSE3 s t r a i g h t l i n e d i s t a n c e t o c l o s e s t p o i n t on ALRT l i n e ( f e e t ) i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d D I S T L I N E s t r a i g h t l i n e d i s t a n c e i n f e e t t o c l o s e s t s t a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t w e e n y e a r s a n d DISTSTAT 67 DISTCBD s t r a i g h t l i n e d i s t a n c e t o CBD D71CB TO D83CB i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e s b e t ween y e a r s a n d DISTCBD YR71 TO YR83 dummy v a r i a b l e f o r e a c h y e a r i n d i c a t i n g w h e t h e r t h e s a l e was i n t h a t y e a r DUM83D i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m b e t w e e n YR83 an d DISTSTAT HHSIZE SOCIAL NEIGHBORHOOD VARIABLES ( f o r c e n s u s y e a r s 1971,1976,1981 o n l y ) ? mean h o u s e h o l d s i z e i n u n i t ' s e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a DEPEND p r o p o r t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n o v e r 65 o r u n d e r 18 i n u n i t ' s e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a NONENG p e r c e n t o f h o u s e h o l d s i n u n i t ' s e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a w i t h n o n e n g l i s h m o t h e r t o n g u e RENTAL p e r c e n t o f u n i t s i n t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a c o n t a i n i n g t h e h o u s i n g u n i t w h i c h a r e r e n t e r o c c u p i e d UNIVED p e r c e n t o f p o p u l a t i o n o v e r 15 y e a r s o l d w i t h more t h a n a h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n i n t h e u n i t ' s e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a MEANY mean f a m i l y i n come i n u n i t ' s e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a t h e OLDUNITS p e r c e n t o f u n i t s o v e r 15 y e a r s o l d i n t h e u n i t ' s e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a 68 V. ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 5. 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n T h i s s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s u n d e r t a k e n t o a n s w e r t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p t e r One. The q u e s t i o n s p r e s e n t e d a t t h a t t i m e w e r e : 1) I s p r o x i m i t y t o a d e s i g n a t e d s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g p r i c e s a l o n g t h e ALRT c o r r i d o r ? 2) I s p r o x i m i t y t o t h e a l i g n m e n t ( w h i l e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y b e i n g n e a r a s t a t i o n ) a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g p r i c e s a l o n g t h e ALRT c o r r i d o r ? 3) I f t h e r e a r e p r i c e i m p a c t s , what i s t h e t i m i n g o f t h e s e i m p a c t s ? 4) Has t h e s i n g l e f a m i l y m a r k e t become more a c t i v e a n d / o r v o l a t i l e f r o m ALRT i n d u c e d s a l e s ? 5) A r e t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m l o c a l i z e d t o t h e s t a t i o n a n d a l i g n m e n t a r e a s o r a r e t h e y more f a r r e a c h i n g s p a t i a l l y ? One s h o u l d r e i t e r a t e t h a t i t i s p r e - s e r v i c e i m p a c t s t h a t a r e b e i n g e x a m i n e d s i n c e s e r v i c e i s n o t e x p e c t e d t o b e g i n u n t i l 1986. C o n s t r u c t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y w e l l u n d e rway a l o n g t h e r o u t e . W h i l e t h e r e a r e d i s t i n c t q u e s t i o n s b e i n g a d d r e s s e d t h e d i s c u s s i o n a n d r e s u l t s w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n two s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t t h r e e q u e s t i o n s w i l l be a d d r e s s e d i n one s e c t i o n w h i l e t h e l a s t two q u e s t i o n s w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n a s e p a r a t e s e c t i o n . 69 5.2 The P r i c e I m p a c t s Of The ALRT R o u t e T h i s s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e f i r s t t h r e e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s . T h e s e q u e s t i o n s a d d r e s s t h e p r i c e i m p a c t s o f a l o c a t i o n n e a r a s t a t i o n , n e a r t h e l i n e i t s e l f , a n d t h e t i m i n g o f t h e s e i m p a c t s . The t i m i n g a s p e c t i s d i s c u s s e d w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f e a c h o f t h e f i r s t two q u e s t i o n s . 5.3 C r o s s - s e c t i o n a l A n a l y s i s As t h e m e t h o d o l o g y d i s c u s s i o n i n d i c a t e d , t h e o b j e c t o f t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a p p r o a c h was t o s p e c i f y an e q u a t i o n f o r h o u s i n g p r i c e s i n e a c h y e a r a n d t h e n t o e x a m i n e t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s t o a s c e r t a i n t h e i r e f f e c t i n t h e e q u a t i o n s . The two i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s c a s e a r e DISTSTAT a n d D I S T L I N E w h i c h m e a s u r e r e s p e c t i v e l y t h e s t r a i g h t l i n e d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e p r o p e r t i e s t o t h e ALRT s t a t i o n a n d t o t h e n e a r e s t ALRT l i n e . W i t h t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a p p r o a c h two f a c t o r s must be e x a m i n e d t o d e t e r m i n e what e f f e c t s t h e s t a t i o n s a r e h a v i n g on p r i c e s . F i r s t , t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e a n d s i g n o f t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e must be c h e c k e d a n d s e c o n d , t h e t i m i n g o f t h e s e i m p a c t s must be e x a m i n e d . T a b l e I X ( t a b l e s s t a r t on page 90) shows t h e m o d e l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s i n e a c h y e a r . As t h i s a n a l y s i s was u n d e r t a k e n t h e r e s u l t s were c l o s e l y m o n i t o r e d f o r t h e p r e s e n c e o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . The m o d e l s f o r t h e y e a r s 1971 t o 1982 d i d n o t a p p e a r t o h a v e any s e r i o u s m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y p r o b l e m s . H owever, i n 1983 t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n DISTSTAT and D I S T L I N E was q u i t e h i g h w h i c h c a u s e d t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s i n t h e m o d e l t o 70 c h a n g e s u b s t a n t i a l l y when one o f t h e two v a r i a b l e s was o m i t t e d f r o m t h e m o d e l . T h i s l a c k o f s t a b i l i t y made i t i m p o s s i b l e t o make c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h i s y e a r o f t h e a n a l y s i s . One p o s s i b l e r e a s o n f o r t h i s may ha v e been t h e s m a l l e r s a m p l e s i z e i n 1983. The s i g n s on t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s m a t c h what was i n t u i t i v e l y e x p e c t e d a n d a l s o m a t c h t h o s e i n p a s t h o u s i n g p r i c e e q u a t i o n s s p e c i f i e d by o t h e r a u t h o r s ( s e e M a r k ( l 9 7 7 ) , F a l c k e ( 1 9 7 8 ) , L e r m a n ( 1 9 7 7 ) ) . W h i l e none o f t h e v a r i a b l e s a p p e a r s s i g n i f i c a n t ( a t 10% l e v e l ) i n e v e r y y e a r , t h e v a r i a b l e s L O T S I Z E , AREA, a nd AGE a r e most c o n s i s t e n t l y s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h t h e c o r r e c t e x p e c t e d s i g n s (AGE i s n e g a t i v e w h i l e AREA a n d LOTSIZE a r e p o s i t i v e ) . The o t h e r s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s ROOMS, BASE, HARDWOOD, PLUMB, HEAT, F I R E , GARAGE, a nd ALTER were e i t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h t h e c o r r e c t s i g n o r i n s i g n i f i c a n t . I n no c a s e s were t h e v a r i a b l e s s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h an u n e x p e c t e d s i g n . The n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s ; SCH1, SCH3, NONRES1, NONRES3, PARK1, PARK3, DENSE 1, DENSE3, a n d DISTCBD were o f t e n i n s i g n i f i c a n t o r had d i f f e r e n t s i g n s i n d i f f e r e n t y e a r s . Once a g a i n t h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p r e v i o u s l i t e r a t u r e . The s o c i a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s a r e shown f o r 1971, 1976 and 1981 o n l y s i n c e t h o s e were t h e c e n s u s y e a r s . Once a g a i n t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h o s e i n p r e v i o u s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . T a b l e X shows o n l y t h e v a l u e o f t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e i n e a c h o f t h e y e a r s . C l o s e r a n a l y s i s shows t h a t t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 7% l e v e l i n 1975 (1978 i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 11% l e v e l ) . A n e g a t i v e s i g n on t h e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r DISTSTAT w o u l d i m p l y t h a t t h e p r i c e o f t h e h o u s e 71 d e c r e a s e s a s t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e s t a t i o n i n c r e a s e s , w h i l e a p o s i t i v e s i g n i n d i c a t e s i n c r e a s i n g p r i c e s a s d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e s t a t i o n i n c r e a s e s . The c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 1975 i s -1.19 i m p l y i n g t h a t s a l e s i n t h i s y e a r r e f l e c t h i g h e r p r i c e s c l o s e r t o s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s . A n o t h e r r e s u l t e v i d e n c e d by t h e t a b l e i s t h e s i g n c h a n g e i n 1979. A f t e r t h a t t i m e a l l o f t h e s i g n s were n e g a t i v e . T h i s i s t h e y e a r a f t e r t h e f i r s t s e r i e s o f r e p o r t s were r e l e a s e d t h a t g a ve more d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s . W h i l e t h i s may be a r e a c t i o n t o t h e announcement o f t h e r o u t e , one must be wary b e c a u s e none o f t h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l a n d , f o r p r a c t i c a l p u r p o s e s , one c a n n o t assume t h a t t h e y a r e d i f f e r e n t f r o m z e r o . The c o e f f i c i e n t i n 1983 was a l s o n e g a t i v e a n d s i g n i f i c a n t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e p r e s e n c e o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i n t h i s y e a r p r e c l u d e s any p o s s i b l e c o n c l u s i o n f r o m t h i s r e s u l t . I n no y e a r s was t h e c o e f f i c i e n t on t h e v a r i a b l e D I S T L I N E s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t p r o x i m i t y t o t h e l i n e i s n o t i n f l u e n c i n g p r i c e s i n a n y y e a r . The c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l r e s u l t s i m p l y t h a t t h e d i s t a n c e t o a s t a t i o n i s o n l y a f f e c t i n g p r i c e s i n 1975 a n d t h a t l o c a t i o n s c l o s e r t o s t a t i o n s h a v e h i g h e r v a l u e s t h a n t h o s e f a r t h e r away. I t seems somewhat u n u s u a l t h a t t h i s r e s u l t w o u l d o c c u r o n l y i n 1975 a n d n o t i n t h e more r e c e n t y e a r s when t h e p l a n s f o r t h e s y s t e m were f i n a l i z e d . B e f o r e t r y i n g t o i n t e r p r e t t h i s r e s u l t f u r t h e r , t h e a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e t e c h n i q u e w i l l be u n d e r t a k e n . 72 5.4 A n a l y s i s Of C o v a r i a n c e T e c h n i q u e The p r e v i o u s d i s c u s s i o n was i n c o m p l e t e b e c a u s e o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y p r o b l e m s i n 1983. Ev e n i f t h i s was n o t a p r o b l e m t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s w o u l d n o t ha v e a l l o w e d any s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s r e g a r d i n g c h a n g e s i n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o v e r t h e y e a r s . The m e t h o d o l o g y a n d a n a l y s i s a b o u t t o be d i s c u s s e d a l l o w s one t o s t a t i s t i c a l l y t e s t w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t o f t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s on s a l e s p r i c e h a s c h a n g e d o v e r t h e p e r i o d o f t h e s t u d y . As t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n t h e m e t h o d o l o g y s e c t i o n e x p l a i n e d , t h i s i s a c h i e v e d by p o o l i n g d a t a f r o m a l l o f t h e y e a r s i n t o one m o d e l . T h i s m o d e l i n c o r p o r a t e s dummy v a r i a b l e s f o r e a c h y e a r a n d i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s . An i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m w o u l d be c r e a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g a dummy v a r i a b l e i n any y e a r by a n o t h e r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s u c h a s ROOMS, LOTSIZE o r DISTSTAT. I t i s t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e s e i n t e r a c t i o n o r s h i f t t e r m s ( a s t h e y a r e s o m e t i m e s c a l l e d ) t h a t , make t h e s t a t i s t i c a l m easurement p o s s i b l e . I t s p r e s e n c e a l l o w s t h e e f f e c t o f any v a r i a b l e t o v a r y f r o m y e a r t o y e a r . An e x a m p l e may make t h i s t y p e o f a n a l y s i s c l e a r e r . The HEAT v a r i a b l e i n t h e d a t a m e a s u r e s w h e t h e r a h o u s e h a s n a t u r a l g a s h e a t i n g a s o p p o s e d t o any o t h e r t y p e . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e v a l u e o f h a v i n g a g a s s y s t e m c o u l d c h a n g e a s w o r l d c o n d i t i o n s a f f e c t e d t h e p r i c e o f o i l . T h u s , i t w o u l d be i n a c c u r a t e t o assume t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f t h e HEAT v a r i a b l e w o u l d be t h e same i n e a c h y e a r . The f i r s t s t e p i n t h i s a n a l y s i s was t o f o r m u l a t e a g e n e r a l m o d e l t h a t i n c l u d e d s e v e r a l i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s w i t h t h e i r 73 c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s f o r t h e y e a r s 1971 t o 1983. A b a s e y e a r o f 1979 was c h o s e n ( s t a t i s t i c a l l y t h e c h o i c e o f b a s e y e a r d o e s n o t a f f e c t t h e r e s u l t s ) and t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e i n t h i s m o d e l i s CONPRICE, t h e a c t u a l s e l l i n g p r i c e o f t h e u n i t i n c o n s t a n t 1981 d o l l a r s . The h o u s i n g component o f t h e V a n c o u v e r CPI was u s e d t o s t a n d a r d i z e t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e s . T h i s f i r s t m o d e l had 250 v a r i a b l e s w h i c h a r e o u t l i n e d i n T a b l e X I . The l a r g e m o d e l d i d n o t p o s e any s t a t i s t i c a l p r o b l e m s s i n c e t h e s a m p l e s i z e o f 6451 was c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r t h a n t h e number o f v a r i a b l e s . The m o d e l h a d an a d j u s t e d R - s q u a r e d of .37829 a n d an F - s t a t i s t i c o f 16.69 m a k i n g t h e e q u a t i o n s i g n i f i c a n t a t a l e v e l h i g h e r t h a n .01. T h i s m o d e l i s t h e most g e n e r a l m o d e l w h i c h a l l o w s e a c h i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ' s e f f e c t t o v a r y i n e a c h y e a r , h o w e v e r i t s l a r g e s i z e makes i t somewhat cumbersome f o r a n a l y s i s . To make t h e m o d e l more m a n a g e a b l e s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s were o m i t t e d b a s e d on t h e i r l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e a s w e l l a s some j u d g e m e n t b a s e d on e a r l i e r a n a l y s i s . The f i r s t v a r i a b l e s o m i t t e d were SCH1, SCH3, PARK 1, PARK3, NONRES1, NONRES3, DENSE 1, DENSE3, a n d t h e i r c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s . T h e i r d e l e t i o n was b a s e d on t h e i r l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e b a s e d on t h e i r T - s t a t i s t i c s a s w e l l a s k n o w l e d g e g a i n e d i n t h e e a r l y s t a g e s o f t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . . I n t h a t a n a l y s i s , none o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t i n any c o n s i s t e n t m anner. The f o l l o w i n g h y p o t h e s i s was t e s t e d t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e o m i t t e d v a r i a b l e s were n o t a d d i n g t o t h e m o d e l . 74 H^: a l l d e l e t e d j3 = 0 H^: a t l e a s t one j3 # 0 U s i n g an F - t e s t i t was i m p o s s i b l e t o r e j e c t t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e d e l e t e d v a r i a b l e s were e q u a l t o z e r o . Two more i t e r a t i o n s were made t o d e l e t e v a r i a b l e s . One h u n d r e d and e l e v e n v a r i a b l e s were o m i t t e d f i r s t , f o l l o w e d by a s e c o n d d e l e t i o n of s i x v a r i a b l e s . A g a i n t h e s e v a r i a b l e s were d e l e t e d b a s e d on t h e i r l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e ( f r o m t - s t a t i s t i c ) and were c h e c k e d t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f a F - t e s t s i m i l a r t o t h a t d e s c r i b e d a b o v e . I n b o t h c a s e s t h e o m i t t e d v a r i a b l e s were n o t a d d i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e m o d e l . The r e m a i n i n g m o d el i n c l u d e s b o t h t h e i m p a c t v a r i a b l e s , DISTSTAT an d D I S T L I N E . As t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d , m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y c a n be a p r o b l e m i n t h e h o u s i n g model c o n t e x t . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l r u l e s o f thumb ( s e e Mark 1982) f o r d e c i d i n g when m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s a p r o b l e m . I n t h i s c a s e t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x shows a s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n o f .43 b e t w e e n D I S T L I N E a n d DISTSTAT w h i c h i s s l i g h t l y h i g h e r t h a n t h e R-s q u a r e d f o r t h e m o d e l . H o w e v e r , as Mark (1982) p o i n t s o u t t h e b e s t way t o t e s t f o r m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s t o r u n t h e m o d e l w i t h t h e v a r i a b l e s i n q u e s t i o n i n v a r i o u s c o m b i n a t i o n s t o s e e how t h e t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s and s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s r e a c t . T h r e e s e p a r a t e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s were e x a m i n e d t o t e s t f o r m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y e f f e c t s . The m o d e l was r u n w i t h t h e DISTSTAT and DISTSTAT i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s o n l y ( t h e o t h e r v a r i a b l e s w e r e i n c l u d e d b u t DISTSTAT was t h e o n l y i m p a c t v a r i a b l e ) , w i t h b o t h 75 DISTSTAT, DISTLINE and t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n terms together, and with DISTLINE and i t s i n t e r a c t i o n terms. I f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s a problem the s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l of a given v a r i a b l e should vary widely i n the d i f f e r e n t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . When DISTLINE and DISTSTAT were included together there were s l i g h t changes in the s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s of the c o e f f i c i e n t s from when DISTSTAT and DISTLINE were run se p a r a t e l y . O v e r a l l , the changes d i d not appear serio u s and thus the concern that m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y would confound the r e s u l t s i s not a problem. The s p e c i f i c a t i o n which included both the DISTSTAT and DISTLINE v a r i a b l e s , as o u t l i n e d p r e v i o u s l y , a l s o allowed one to te s t whether the a d d i t i o n of the DISTLINE v a r i a b l e s was improving the model. Two t e s t s were made from the three d i f f e r e n t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . F i r s t the model with the DISTSTAT and DISTLINE v a r i a b l e s was compared to the model with only the DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s . The hypothesis that a l l of the c o e f f i c i e n t s on the DISTLINE v a r i a b l e s were equal to zero was t e s t e d with an F-test such t h a t : HQ: a l l deleted 0 = 0 H^: at l e a s t one |3 * 0 With an F - s t a t i s t i c of .5078 i t was impossible to r e j e c t the n u l l hypothesis. A f u r t h e r check was made by comparing the DISTSTAT and DISTLINE model to the model with DISTLINE alone. Confirming the previous r e s u l t , the hypothesis that the DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s were equal to zero was r e j e c t e d with an F - s t a t i s t i c of 9.19. Because of these r e s u l t s the DISTLINE v a r i a b l e s were 76 d e l e t e d s i n c e t h e y were n o t a d d i n g t o t h e m o d e l . T h e s e t e s t s a l s o c o n f i r m t h e l a c k o f s e r i o u s m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . I f t h e v a r i a b l e s were m e a s u r i n g t h e same t h i n g one w o u l d n o t e x p e c t t o f i n d s u c h a c l e a r c u t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e i n d i v i d u a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a n d t h e model w i t h b o t h v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d . More w i l l be s a i d a b o u t t h e D I S T L I N E e f f e c t s l a t e r i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n . The f i n a l m o d e l t o e x a m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f p r o x i m i t y t o a s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e X I I . The m o d e l h a s an a d j u s t e d R - s q u a r e d v a l u e o f .37672. The m o d e l a l s o a p p e a r s s e n s i b l e s i n c e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s h a v e t h e p r o p e r e x p e c t e d s i g n s . L O T S I Z E , BASE, ALTER, HARDWOOD, AREA, and PLUMB a r e a l l p o s i t i v e w h i l e AGE i s n e g a t i v e . The r e s t o f t h e v a r i a b l e s d i d n o t h a v e any p r e v i o u s e x p e c t e d s i g n s s i n c e t h e p r e v i o u s l i t e r a t u r e was i n c o n c l u s i v e , o r i n t h e c a s e o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s were unknown. To t e s t w h e t h e r t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s were a d d i n g t o t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e m o d e l , t h i s m o d e l was c o m p a r e d t o a more r e s t r i c t e d m o d e l w i t h o u t t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s . U s i n g an F - t e s t i t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s were a d d i n g t o t h e m o d e l . The F - s t a t i s t i c was s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .01 l e v e l . U s i n g t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e d by t h e m o d e l i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c a l c u l a t e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e i n e a c h y e a r a l o n g w i t h t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l . T a b l e X I I I shows t h e s e v a l u e s . P e r h a p s t h e most s t r i k i n g f a c t o r i n t h i s t a b l e i s t h e l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e a t t h e 10% l e v e l p r i o r t o 1983. The v a l u e i n 1983 i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 2% l e v e l a n d h a s a n e g a t i v e 77 s i g n . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t i n 1983 t h e v a l u e o f a p r o p e r t y d e c r e a s e d by 4.95 d o l l a r s a s t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e s t a t i o n i n c r e a s e d by one f o o t . T h i s t r a n s l a t e s t o a d i f f e r e n c e o f a b o u t 5000 d o l l a r s b e t w e e n two h o u s e s , when one i s a t h o u s a n d f e e t c l o s e r t o t h e s t a t i o n t h a n t h e o t h e r . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o r e i t e r a t e t h a t t h i s e f f e c t was n o t e v i d e n t p r i o r t o 1983. The n e x t s t a g e i n t h e a n a l y s i s i s t o t e s t w h e t h e r t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s on DISTSTAT h a v e c h a n g e d o v e r t h e p e r i o d o f t h e s t u d y and w i l l a l l o w one t o b u i l d on t h e p r e v i o u s c o n c l u s i o n s a b o u t t h e t i m i n g and t h e e f f e c t o f t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . T h i s p o r t i o n o f t h e a n a l y s i s was n o t p o s s i b l e i n t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . The c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f i t s i n w e l l w i t h t h e p r e - s e r v i c e n a t u r e o f t h i s s t u d y . The v a r i a b l e DISTSTAT m e a s u r e s t h e d i s t a n c e f r o m a p r o p e r t y t o a f u t u r e ALRT s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n . O ver t h e p e r i o d o f t h i s s t u d y , t h e m e a n i n g o f DISTSTAT h a s c h a n g e d , o r a t l e a s t t h e c e r t a i n t y o f what i t m e a s u r e s has c h a n g e d . I n t h e e a r l y y e a r s o f t h e s t u d y p e r i o d when t h e r a p i d t r a n s i t c o n c e p t was h i g h l y u n c e r t a i n , DISTSTAT m e a s u r e d t h e d i s t a n c e t o some p o i n t w h i c h may o r may n o t h a v e had any p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e . Where a s t a t i o n h a s been p l a c e d i n a c o m m e r c i a l a r e a , DISTSTAT p r e v i o u s l y m e a s u r e d t h e d i s t a n c e t o a c o m m e r c i a l a r e a . I n some a r e a s t h e s t a t i o n s a r e b e i n g p l a c e d i n r e s i d e n t i a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d s w h i c h w o u l d make i t u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e s e l o c a t i o n s w o u l d h a v e any s p e c i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e p r i o r t o t h e a n n o uncement o f t h e s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s . A f t e r 1979 when t h e d e t a i l e d p r i o r i t y s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s were r e l e a s e d , DISTSTAT becomes a m e a s u r e o f 78 f u t u r e a c c e s s i b i l i t y . I f t h e s t a t i o n i s a f f e c t i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , one w o u l d e x p e c t t h e c o e f f i c i e n t t o behave d i f f e r e n t l y s o m e t i m e a f t e r t h e s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n i s known. T h i s t e c h n i q u e a l l o w s us t o com p a r e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d t o d e c i d e when and i f t h e r e h a s been any c h a n g e i n t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT. S i n c e t h e v a r i a b l e o f i n t e r e s t i s DISTSTAT, t h e m a t r i x i n T a b l e X I V was c a l c u l a t e d t o compare t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t ween t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s b e t w e e n any two y e a r s o v e r t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The h i g h l i g h t e d v a l u e s i n t h e t a b l e a r e t h e c h a n g e s t h a t a r e d i f f e r e n t f r o m z e r o a t t h e 10% l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . The m a t r i x h a s a d e f i n i t e p a t t e r n o f c h a n g e s i n 1983. The t a b l e i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n 1983 i s d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e e f f e c t s i n 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1981, and 1982. I n a l l o f t h e s e c a s e s t h e c o e f f i c i e n t i n 1983 was more n e g a t i v e t h a n i n t h e o t h e r y e a r s . T h e s e r e s u l t s c o n f i r m t h a t t h e m a r k e t was r e a c t i n g t o t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e s t a t i o n s i n 1983 a n d was v a l u i n g t h e i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n s u c h a way t h a t a l o c a t i o n c l o s e r t o a s t a t i o n was w o r t h more t h a n a l o c a t i o n f a r t h e r away. To f u r t h e r c h e c k t h a t 1983 i s d i f f e r e n t f r o m a l l o f t h e o t h e r y e a r s a n o t h e r m o d e l was s p e c i f i e d . As T a b l e XV shows t h i s m o d e l i n c l u d e d a dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g w h e t h e r t h e s a l e was i n 1983 w h i c h was i n t e r a c t e d w i t h t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e . T h i s v a r i a b l e , DUM83D, a l l o w s one t o t e s t w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n 1983 was d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e e f f e c t i n a l l o f t h e o t h e r y e a r s when t h e y a r e g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r . As t h e model shows t h e DUM83D v a r i a b l e was n e g a t i v e a n d s i g n i f i c a n t w h i c h r e a f f i r m s 79 t h e p r e v i o u s c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n 1983 i s d i f f e r e n t . 1 5 To t e s t f o r s p e c i f i c t i m i n g e f f e c t s two more t e s t s were u n d e r t a k e n . T h e s e t e s t s were d e s i g n e d t o t e s t w h e t h e r t h e r e was a m a r k e t r e a c t i o n f o l l o w i n g t h e a n n o u n c e m e n t , i n 1980, t h a t t h e G o v e r n m e n t was g o i n g a h e a d w i t h t h e ALRT s y s t e m . The f i r s t m o d e l a l l o w e d one t o t e s t w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n t h e y e a r s 1971 up t o and i n c l u d i n g 1980 was any d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e y e a r s a f t e r t h e a nnouncement ( 1 9 8 1 , 1982, 1 9 8 3 ) . W i t h e a c h o f t h e s e t i m e p e r i o d s t r e a t e d a s one g r o u p , t h e r e was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e f o u n d b e t w e e n t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e s . The s e c o n d t e s t was s i m i l a r t o t h e f i r s t , h o w e v e r c o m p a r e d t h e e f f e c t p r i o r t o 1981 w i t h 1981 a l o n e . A g a i n t h e r e was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT b e t w e e n t h e s e two t i m e p e r i o d s . From t h e s e two t e s t s t h e r e d o e s n o t a p p e a r t o be any d i s c e r n i b l e m a r k e t r e a c t i o n t o t h e a nnouncement t h a t was made i n 1980. The r e s u l t s t h u s f a r i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s a r e a f f e c t i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s w i t h i n t h e c o r r i d o r i n 1983. I n t u i t i v e l y one w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e s t a t i o n s w o u l d d e c r e a s e a s d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e s t a t i o n s i n c r e a s e s . To t r y t o i d e n t i f y t h e n a t u r e o f t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p two more m o d e l s were a n a l y s e d . The f i r s t m o d e l u s e d t h e d a t a f r o m t h e K e n s i n g t o n 1 5 T h i s t e s t was i n c l u d e d t o c o u n t e r t h e a r g u m e n t t h a t t h e r e s u l t s i n T a b l e 5.6 c o u l d be p a r t i a l l y due t o c h a n c e s i n c e a number o f c o m p a r i s o n s were b e i n g made. 80 n e i g h b o u r h o o d w h i c h h a s p r o p e r t i e s l o c a t e d f r o m 2400 t o 12000 f e e t f r o m t h e ALRT l i n e . The ALRT c o r r i d o r w h i c h was a n a l y s e d p r e v i o u s l y c o n t a i n e d p r o p e r t i e s w i t h i n 1800 f e e t o f t h e l i n e . A s i m i l a r model was s p e c i f i e d f o r t h e K e n s i n g t o n a r e a by i t s e l f t o e x a m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n 1983. T h i s a n a l y s i s o n l y e x a m i n e d t h e c h a n g e s i n DISTSTAT r e l a t i v e t o 1983 r a t h e r t h a n e v e r y y e a r a s t h e a n a l y s i s d i d i n t h e c o r r i d o r . I t was f e l t t h a t i t w o u l d be u n l i k e l y t o f i n d any s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s p r i o r t o 1983 s i n c e none were f o u n d ( w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f 1975) i n t h e c o r r i d o r w h i c h i s c l o s e r t o t h e l i n e . T a b l e XVI shows t h e m o d el f o r K e n s i n g t o n w i t h a b a s e y e a r o f 1983. The b a s e y e a r o f 1983 l e t s one c o m p a r e t h e e f f e c t i n 1983 t o t h e o t h e r y e a r s i n one s t e p . The r e s u l t s show t h a t DISTSTAT i s n o t s i g n i f i c a n t i n 1983 and t h a t t h e e f f e c t i n 1983 i s n o t d i f f e r e n t f r o m any o t h e r y e a r . T h i s c a n be i n t e r p r e t e d t o mean t h a t a c c e s s t o t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s i s n o t a f f e c t i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n t h e a r e a o v e r 2400 f e e t f r o m t h e l i n e . The s e c o n d m o d e l was d e s i g n e d t o c h e c k f o r d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e i n 1983 a t v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e s t a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e c o r r i d o r . The a n a l y s i s was done t h e same way a s t h e c o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n y e a r s e x c e p t t h a t i n t h i s c a s e t h e DISTSTAT v a r i a b l e was i n t e r a c t e d w i t h a dummy v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t i n g a c e r t a i n d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e s t a t i o n . The d i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e s t a t i o n w e r e g r o u p e d i n 200 f o o t z o n e s . T h u s , t h e e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT i n t h e z o n e 0 t o 200 f e e t f r o m t h e s t a t i o n c o u l d be c o m p a r e d t o t h e e f f e c t i n t h e z o n e f r o m 201 t o 400 f e e t , f r o m 401 t o 600 f e e t a nd s o on u n t i l a l l o f t h e z o n e s were 81 c o m p a r e d . The v a l u e o f DISTSTAT i n e a c h z o n e i s shown i n T a b l e X V I I . T h i s a n a l y s i s f a i l e d t o p r o v i d e any c l e a r e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s t a t i o n s was d i m i n i s h i n g a s t h e d i s t a n c e i n c r e a s e d . The e f f e c t i n e a c h o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l z o n e s was i n s i g n i f i c a n t . H o w e v e r , c o m p a r i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n DISTSTAT b e t w e e n t h e z o n e s r e v e a l s s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e 801 t o 1000 f o o t zone and t h e 401 t o 600, 1201 t o 1400, a n d t h e 1401 t o 1600 f o o t z o n e s , a s w e l l a s b e t w e e n t h e 1001 t o 1200 f o o t a n d 601 t o 800 f o o t z o n e . W h i l e t h e r e a r e some d i f f e r e n c e s a c r o s s t h e z o n e s , t h e y do n o t a p p e a r i n a c o n s i s t e n t e nough manner t o show a d i m i n i s h i n g e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT. T h i s r e s u l t h e l p s t o v a l i d a t e t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f DISTSTAT i n t h e l i n e a r f o r m . The model was a l s o s p e c i f i e d w i t h t h e n a t u r a l l o g o f DISTSTAT. T h i s s p e c i f i c a t i o n w o u l d c o m p e n s a t e f o r any n o n -l i n e a r e f f e c t o f DISTSTAT and w o u l d p r o v i d e a b e t t e r f i t i f DISTSTAT was n o n - l i n e a r . E x a m i n i n g t h e R - s q u a r e d v a l u e a nd t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h i s m o d e l d i d n o t r e v e a l a b e t t e r f i t t h a n t h e l i n e a r s p e c i f i c a t i o n . The a d j u s t e d R - s q u a r e d v a l u e w i t h t h e l o g o f DISTSTAT was .37579 w h i l e i t was .37672 w i t h t h e l i n e a r s p e c i f i c a t i o n . W h i l e t h e r e a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y more s o p h i s t i c a t e d t e s t s t o compare t h e m o d e l s , i t i s f e l t t h a t t h e R - s q u a r e d c o m p a r i s o n i s s u f f i c i e n t f o r t h e s c o p e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s . T h u s , one c a n be f a i r l y c o n f i d e n t t h a t t h e l i n e a r s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f DISTSTAT i s a d e q u a t e i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . The f i r s t t e s t , w i t h DISTSTAT s p e c i f i e d f o r K e n s i n g t o n c o n f i r m s t h e i n t u i t i v e e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f an ALRT 82 s t a t i o n w o u l d d i m i n i s h a s one moves f a r t h e r f r o m t h e s t a t i o n . H o wever, t h e a t t e m p t t o r e f i n e t h i s t o t h e a r e a w i t h i n t h e 1800 f o o t c o r r i d o r f a i l e d t o p r o v i d e any c o n c l u s i v e r e s u l t s . T a b l e X I V a l s o r e v e a l s some s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s on t h e DISTSTAT c o e f f i c i e n t s r e l a t i n g t o 1975. The v a l u e of t h e DISTSTAT c o e f f i c i e n t was -2.78 ( s e e T a b l e X I I I ) , h o w e v e r , i t was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l . T h i s n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t l e a d t o s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h t h e p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s i n 1972, 1973, 1978, and 1981. T h i s r e s u l t i s s i m i l a r t o t h e e f f e c t f o u n d f o r 1975 i n t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . Why t h e e f f e c t i n 1975 w o u l d be d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e s e y e a r s i s somewhat d i f f i c u l t t o e x p l a i n . W h i l e t h e r e were r e p o r t s r e l e a s e d i n 1975 a b o u t t h e ALRT, i t seems u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e m a r k e t w o u l d be r e a c t i n g d i f f e r e n t l y on t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e r e p o r t s . A l s o t h e r e i s no c o n s i s t e n t d i f f e r e n c e l i k e t h a t e v i d e n t i n 1983. I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t "~the c h a n g i n g m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s made t h i s y e a r u n u s u a l . I n 1975 r e a l h o u s i n g p r i c e s i n BC were l e v e l l i n g o f f a f t e r a s h a r p i n c r e a s e f r o m 1972 t o 1974, w h i c h may h a v e c a u s e d some a n o m a l i e s i n t h i s y e a r ' s d a t a t h a t t h i s m o d e l f a i l e d t o m e a s u r e . O v e r a l l t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s h a s p r o v i d e d s t r o n g e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s a r e a f f e c t i n g t h e m a r k e t i n 1983. I n t h a t y e a r t h e r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t p e o p l e a r e p a y i n g more f o r l o c a t i o n s c l o s e r t o t h e s t a t i o n s . The l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w p r o v i d e s p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h i s t y p e o f b e h a v i o r . The i n c r e a s e d p r i c e f o r l o c a t i o n s c l o s e r 83 t o t h e s t a t i o n s c o u l d i n d i c a t e t h e c a p i t a l i z a t i o n o f t h e f u t u r e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a v i n g s f r o m l i v i n g c l o s e t o a s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n . The o t h e r p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e i s t h a t t h e h i g h e r p r i c e s c o u l d r e f l e c t a s p e c u l a t i v e e l e m e n t i n t h e m a r k e t . I n t h i s c a s e p r i c e s may be b i d up n e a r t h e s t a t i o n w i t h t h e e x p e c t a t i o n o f h i g h e r g a i n s i n t h e f u t u r e i f t h e s t a t i o n a r e a s a r e d e v e l o p e d o r i f t h e r e i s a h i g h e r c a p i t a l i z a t i o n o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s a v i n g s i n t h e f u t u r e . M o s t l i k e l y i t i s a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e s e f a c t o r s t h a t h a v e c a u s e d t h e p r i c e e f f e c t s . The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e m a r k e t has t a k e n a b o u t t h r e e y e a r s s i n c e t h e announcement o f t h e s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n s t o r e a c t t o t h e i r p r e s e n c e . I t i s a l s o w o r t h y o f m e n t i o n t h a t t h e m a r k e t i s r e a c t i n g two t o t h r e e y e a r s p r i o r t o t h e e x p e c t e d o p e n i n g d a t e o f t h e s y s t e m . A n d e r s o n ( 1 9 7 0 ) d i s c u s s e d t h e t i m i n g o f r a p i d t r a n s i t i m p a c t s and f e l t t h a t r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e s s h o u l d i n c r e a s e i n d i r e c t r e l a t i o n t o d i m i n i s h i n g r i s k a n d u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e s y s t e m . T h i s may h e l p e x p l a i n t h e t i m i n g o f t h e e f f e c t s f o u n d i n t h e ALRT c o r r i d o r . W h i l e t h e r o u t e may h ave been f i n a l i z e d on p a p e r i n l a t e 1979, t h e r e were s t i l l c o n t r o v e r s i e s a b o u t t h e a c t u a l r o u t i n g , e s p e c i a l l y a r o u n d C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e . I t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e m a r k e t w o u l d n o t p u t t o o much w e i g h t on t h e s e e a r l y a n n o u n c e m e n t s s i n c e t h e t a l k o f r a p i d t r a n s i t had been g o i n g on f o r so many y e a r s . I n F e b r u a r y 1982, t h e s y s t e m became somewhat more t a n g i b l e when c o n s t r u c t i o n was s t a r t e d on t h e t e s t s e c t i o n a l o n g T e r m i n a l A v e n u e . A l s o i n 1982 t h e r e were s e v e r a l p u b l i c i t y d i s p l a y s b e i n g a r r a n g e d by B.C. T r a n s i t i n o r d e r t o i n c r e a s e t h e 84 a w a r e n e s s o f t h e s y s t e m a nd t h u s r e d u c e some o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t y s u r r o u n d i n g i t . T h e s e f a c t o r s may have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e m a r k e t r e a c t i o n i n 1983. 5.5 D i s t a n c e To L i n e E f f e c t s The s e c o n d r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n p o s e d f o c u s e s on t h e measurement o f any e f f e c t s o f b e i n g c l o s e t o t h e l i n e a s o p p o s e d t o b e i n g c l o s e t o a s t a t i o n . The v a r i a b l e D I S T L I N E m e a s u r e s t h e s t r a i g h t d i s t a n c e t o t h e c l o s e s t p o i n t on t h e ALRT l i n e . The p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e d t h e i n c l u s i o n o f t h e v a r i a b l e t o e x a m i n e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . T h o s e r e s u l t s c a n be e x p a n d e d upon f o r p r e s e n t p u r p o s e s . The l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e when t h e D I S T L I N E a n d t h e D I S T L I N E i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s were i n c l u d e d i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s on t h e s e v a r i a b l e s were n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m z e r o . T h i s c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e l i n e i t s e l f i s n o t a f f e c t i n g h o u s i n g p r i c e s a n d t h u s t h e r e a r e no n e g a t i v e e x t e r n a l i t i e s p r e s e n t a t t h i s t i m e . T h i s l a c k o f n e g a t i v e e x t e r n a l i t i e s i s n o t t h a t s u r p r i s i n g c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t t h e r e i s s t i l l a h i g h l e v e l o f u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t how n o i s y t h e s y s t e m w i l l b e . A l s o , t h e r e may be r e l a t i v e l y few h o u s e s i n a h i g h i m p a c t z o n e . F o r e x a m p l e , a p r o p e r t y 200 f e e t f r o m t h e l i n e may n o t be d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by t h e l i n e w h e r e a s a p r o p e r t y 200 f e e t f r o m a s t a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o be i m p a c t e d i n some way. T h i s d i f f e r e n c e makes t h e measurement o f l i n e e f f e c t s somewhat more d i f f i c u l t . T h i s f i n d i n g a l s o c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e r e s u l t s i n o t h e r l i t e r a t u r e . I n s e v e r a l c a s e s no e f f e c t s were f o u n d o r t h e r e s u l t s were i n c o n c l u s i v e ( s e e F a l c k e , 1978 a n d L e r m a n , 1 9 7 7 ) . 85 An attempt was made to i s o l a t e some p r o p e r t i e s that were cl o s e to the l i n e to see i f any e f f e c t s were evident i n t h i s group. A dummy v a r i a b l e was created with a value of one i f a property was c l o s e r than 200 feet to the l i n e while being over 500 feet from a s t a t i o n l o c a t i o n . This dummy v a r i a b l e was then i n t e r a c t e d with the year v a r i a b l e s to t e s t f o r changes i n the c o e f f i c i e n t s . In no years were the c o e f f i c i e n t s s i g n i f i c a n t which f u r t h e r r e i n f o r c e s the previous con c l u s i o n that there are no measurable negative e x t e r n a l i t i e s over the time p e r i o d of the study. 5.6 Sales A c t i v i t y In The C o r r i d o r The l a s t research question was included to examine the o v e r a l l l e v e l of sal e s a c t i v i t y i n the c o r r i d o r . The d e s i r e was to look for unusual a c t i v i t y that may not have been captured i n the foregoing p r i c e impact a n a l y s i s . I t i s p o s s i b l e that the ALRT p r o j e c t could make the market around i t more a c t i v e and v o l a t i l e than other areas of the c i t y . To answer t h i s question i t i s necessary to use a c o n t r o l c o r r i d o r for comparison purposes. The area chosen i s the Kensington neighbourhood which i s adjacent to a se c t i o n of the c o r r i d o r (see Figure#5). The areas are very s i m i l a r i n nature except that Kensington i s fa r t h e r away from the ALRT route. R e c a l l a l s o that the above a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d that the Kensington property p r i c e s were not being d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by the ALRT s t a t i o n s . The items to be compared are turnover r a t e s , average s e l l i n g p r i c e , and the ye a r l y changes i n average s e l l i n g p r i c e . By examining these 86 t h r e e m e a s u r e s one s h o u l d be . a b l e t o t e l l w h e t h e r t h e c o r r i d o r i s more a c t i v e a n d / o r v o l a t i l e . T a b l e X V I I I shows t h e t u r n o v e r r a t e s ( t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f p r o p e r t i e s s e l l i n g i n e a c h y e a r ) f o r b o t h n e i g h b o u r h o o d s . The t a b l e d o e s n o t show any u n u s u a l a c t i v i t y i n t h e c o r r i d o r c o m p a r e d t o K e n s i n g t o n . I n f a c t , i n a l l y e a r s e x c e p t 1974 and 1975 t h e c o r r i d o r h a d l o w e r t u r n o v e r r a t e s t h a n t h e K e n s i n g t o n n e i g h b o u r h o o d . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o r r i d o r h a s n o t been more a c t i v e t h a n K e n s i n g t o n s i n c e t h e s t a t i o n s were f i n a l i z e d . T a b l e X I X shows t h e a v e r a g e s a l e p r i c e s i n b o t h n e i g h b o u r h o o d s a s w e l l a s t h e p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e s i n p r i c e b e t w e e n t h e y e a r s . L o o k i n g a t t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e s i n e a c h y e a r , t h e c o r r i d o r h a d h i g h e r a v e r a g e s i n a l l o f t h e y e a r s e x c e p t 1977, 1982, a n d 1983. T h i s p a t t e r n d o e s n o t a p p e a r t o i n d i c a t e any u n u s u a l a c t i v i t y i n r e c e n t y e a r s a s t h e ALRT i s b u i l t a n d becomes more f i n a l i z e d . I n f a c t , i f one t h o u g h t t h a t t h e ALRT p r o j e c t was h e a t i n g up t h e m a r k e t one w o u l d e x p e c t h i g h e r p r i c e s i n t h e c o r r i d o r f o r t h e more r e c e n t y e a r s . The e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e s i n p r i c e f o r t h e y e a r s i n t h e s t u d y a l s o f a i l s t o p r o d u c e any p a t t e r n t h a t may be a t t r i b u t e d t o e x t r a a c t i v i t y i n t h e c o r r i d o r . B o t h a r e a s e x p e r i e n c e d w i d e c h a n g e s i n p r i c e w i t h t h e c o r r i d o r e x p e r i e n c i n g a 1.3% d e c r e a s e i n a v e r a g e p r i c e s b e t w e e n 1982 a n d .1983 w h i l e K e n s i n g t o n e x p e r i e n c e d a 5.7% i n c r e a s e . T h i s w o u l d f u r t h e r b a c k up t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e m a r k e t i s n o t h e a t i n g up i n t h e c o r r i d o r . W h i l e t h e d i s c u s s i o n h a s f o c u s e d on t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f 87 i n c r e a s e d a c t i v i t y b e c a u s e o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m , t h e r e c o u l d a l s o be t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f l e s s a c t i v i t y a s t h e m a r k e t p l a y e r s s t a y away f r o m t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f t h e ALRT a r e a . A g a i n t h e d a t a d o e s n o t p r o v i d e any e v i d e n c e t h a t t h i s i s t h e c a s e . The f a c t t h a t n o t h i n g c o n c l u s i v e h a s been f o u n d i n t h i s d a t a i s no s u r p r i s e c o n s i d e r i n g t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e e a r l i e r a n a l y s i s . T h a t a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d a r e a c t i o n t o t h e ALRT i n 1983, t h e l a s t y e a r o f t h e s t u d y . T h e r e was no e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s were a f f e c t i n g p r i c e s ( a n d t h u s t h e m a r k e t ) b e f o r e t h a t t i m e w h i c h c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e s e f i n d i n g s . I t i s a l s o n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t t h i s d a t a d i d n o t show any d i f f e r e n c e i n 1983. The i t e m s e x a m i n e d a r e a t b e s t c r u d e m e a s u r e s f o r t h e q u e s t i o n s b e i n g e x a m i n e d . C a u t i o n s h o u l d a l w a y s be t a k e n when c o m p a r i n g s u c h i t e m s a s a v e r a g e p r i c e s s i n c e c o n c l u s i o n s b a s e d on a v e r a g e s c a n g i v e m i s l e a d i n g i m p r e s s i o n s a b o u t t h e t r u e p i c t u r e . W h i l e t h e y do p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r c o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n t h e a r e a s , g i v e n t h e i r i n h e r e n t w e a k n e s s e s i t i s n o t l i k e l y t h a t t h e y a r e f i n e e n o u g h t o show a d i f f e r e n c e i n one s i n g l e y e a r . 5.7 S p a t i a l I m p a c t s Of The ALRT S y s t e m The l a s t q u e s t i o n was i n c l u d e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e e x t e n t o f t h e i m p a c t s i n a s p a t i a l c o n t e x t . T h i s q u e s t i o n h a s been d e a l t w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s . S u m m a r i z i n g t h o s e r e s u l t s , i t was f o u n d t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s d i m i n i s h e d o u t s i d e t h e 1800 f o o t b o u n d a r y o f t h e c o r r i d o r and were n o t e v i d e n t i n t h e c o n t r o l n e i g h b o u r h o o d o f K e n s i n g t o n . No c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e was f o u n d t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f t h e 88 s t a t i o n s was d i m i n i s h i n g w i t h i n t h e c o r r i d o r s t u d y a r e a . The c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e s a l e s a c t i v i t y i n t h e c o r r i d o r a n d K e n s i n g t o n f a i l e d t o a d d t o t h e p r e v i o u s i n f o r m a t i o n on s p a t i a l e f f e c t s . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e t u r n o v e r r a t e s i n s m a l l e r z o n e s a r o u n d t h e s t a t i o n s may have h e l p e d i n i d e n t i f y i n g a s p e c i f i c a r e a s o f i n c r e a s e d a c t i v i t y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h i s t y p e o f d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s was n o t p e r m i t t e d by t h e d a t a s i n c e t h e r e was no way t o know t h e t o t a l number o f h o u s i n g u n i t s i n any s u b s e c t i o n o f t h e a r e a . 1 6 5.8 Summary Of F i n d i n g s The a n a l y s i s d i s c u s s e d , i n t h i s s e c t i o n h a s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n s : 1) O n l y i n 1983 d o e s a p r o p e r t y ' s l o c a t i o n r e l a t i v e t o a f u t u r e ALRT s t a t i o n a f f e c t t h e p r i c e o f t h a t h o u s e . P r i c e s d e c r e a s e a s t h e p r o p e r t i e s g e t f u r t h e r away f r o m t h e s t a t i o n s . 2) E v i d e n c e o f a d i m i n i s h i n g e f f e c t o f t h e d i s t a n c e t o a s t a t i o n a s one g e t s f u r t h e r away f r o m t h e s t a t i o n c o u l d n o t be f o u n d w i t h i n t h e c o r r i d o r . However the^ e f f e c t d i m i n i s h e s a t some p o i n t o v e r 1800 f e e t a n d i s n o n e x i s t e n t i n t h e K e n s i n g t o n n e i g h b o u r h o o d w h i c h i s o v e r 2400 f e e t f r o m t h e l i n e . 3) A p r o p e r t y ' s l o c a t i o n r e l a t i v e t o t h e ALRT t r a c k s d o e s n o t h a v e an e f f e c t on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . 4) T h e r e d o e s n o t a p p e a r t o be any e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e m a r k e t a r o u n d t h e ALRT c o r r i d o r h a s become more a c t i v e o r v o l a t i l e t h a n o t h e r a r e a s o f V a n c o u v e r . 1 6 An a t t e m p t was made t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f u n i t s w i t h i n 200 f o o t z o n e s a r o u n d t h e s t a t i o n s b u t i t was f e l t t h a t d i f f e r e n t a r e a s a r o u n d t h e s t a t i o n s made t h e s e e s t i m a t e s t o o t e n u o u s f o r s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n . 89 5.9 L i m i t a t i o n s And A r e a s Of C o n c e r n One o f t h e u n f o r t u n a t e p r o b l e m s w i t h t h e t i m i n g o f t h i s s t u d y i s t h e u n u s u a l m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s i n 1981 a n d 1982. The p r i c e s i n V a n c o u v e r were r i s i n g r a p i d l y i n l a t e 1980 a n d 1981 a n d d e c r e a s e d r a p i d l y i n 1982. T h i s t i m e p e r i o d was a l s o c h a r a c t e r i z e d by v e r y h i g h and f l u c t u a t i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e s . I n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s v e r y low a d j u s t e d R-s q u a r e d v a l u e s were f o u n d i n t h e s e y e a r s . The h i g h i n t e r e s t r a t e s may h a v e c a u s e d more v e n d o r s t o i s s u e m o r t g a g e s a t l o w e r t h a n m a r k e t r a t e s . Graham ( f o r t h c o m i n g ) h a s shown t h a t t h i s n o n - m a r k e t f i n a n c i n g i s c a p i t a l i z e d i n t o p r i c e s . T h u s , f o r t h o s e y e a r s t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e r e c o r d e d may n o t a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e v a r i a b l e s b e i n g m e a s u r e d i n t h e s e e q u a t i o n s . W h i l e t h e r e i s no way t o t e l l f o r s u r e what e f f e c t t h i s may h a v e on t h e p o o l e d a n a l y s i s , i t may have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e u n c l e a r d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n 1983 a n d 1980. 90 Table VARIABLE LOTSIZE AREA AGE ROOMS BASE HARDWOOD PLUMB HEAT FIRE GARAGE ALTER DISTCBD SCH1 SCH3 NONRES1 NONRES3 DENSE 1 DENSE3 PARK 1 PARK 3 DISTLINE DISTSTAT UNIVED HHSIZE RENTAL DEP OLDUNITS NONENG MEANY CONSTANT R-SQUARED IX - Cross - S e c t i o n a l Models for Years 1971 to 1 971 1 982 .96 2.03* -113 904 1878 724* 1 476 -19.3* 3472 1 033* -1171* -1311 .08* . 1 4* 1972 1973 1 974 1 975 .72 .30* 2.14 1 .24 5.96 10.22 7.62 10.0 -96 -150.30 -1 16.55 -1 69 2577 5106.79 3854.71 2322 2650.31 2615.77 2626 428 822.69 902 1 763* 693* 1 362* 1734.24 2323.46 912* 1 1 43* 1948.48 241 2 7.9* -8.77* -75.36 -10.0* 1 1 09* 3531* -1087.79* -2688.62 -21 70 -2350 2087.08 -2500 848* -2977.53 1 776* -1033.00* 1 553* 1447. 1 1 * .65* 1 .24* .53* -1.1* .05* .36* -.97* -1.19 12,738 .44 11,054 .47 18,492 .35 31,943 .42 34,063 .46 A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s are s i g n i f i c a n t at the 10% l e v e l unless denoted oy a . 91 Table IX - Cross-sect i o n a l Models for Years 1971 to 1982 (continued) VARIABLE 1 976 1 977 1 978 1 979 1 980 LOTSIZE .90 2.28 1 .09 2.15 2.32 AREA 9.31 1 1 .24 13.52 1 0.79 16.13 AGE -211 .24 -92.55 -203.28 -189.43 -203 ROOMS 1360.78 351.58* BASE 5196.25 6929 4030.7 HARDWOOD 4270 2291.9 4000.7* PLUMB 453.96 1 1 53 1 164.9 1234.62 HEAT 5429 2437.4 3035.8* 3469* FIRE 2988* 1711* 1879.56* • 3707 GARAGE 3978 2481 1 724.86* ALTER 1844 681 5 DISTCBD -51.04 112.5 37.00 -21.7* -48.6* SCH1 6210.75* 2032.6* -14157 SCH3 -1524.06* -1692.9* NONRES1 -2810.35 NONRES3 ' -2681 -1651* DENSE 1 2391.45* 6397 1603.59* DENSE3 2659.39 2267.92* PARK 1 -3497.84* PARK3 1537.64* 2314.2* DISTLINE -1.84* .48* -.44* -.17* -1.19* DISTSTAT .68* .45* 1 .28* -1.16* -1.33* UNIVED 463.18 HHSIZE -11,594 RENTAL -398.27 DEP 339.53 OLDUNITS NONENG MEANY CONSTANT 60,631.27 -3543 24,839 32,027 51,502 R-SQUARED .46 .34 .49 .29 .18 A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s are s i g n i f i c a n t at the 10% l e v e l unless denoted by a *. 92 Table IX - C r o s s - S e c t i o n a l Models for Years 1971 to 1982 (continued) VARIABLE 1981 1982 LOTSIZE 4.90 AREA 32.31 AGE 232.09 -257.11 ROOMS BASE HARDWOOD -8203.96 PLUMB 2627.93 HEAT 10,930. 45 4416.74* FIRE 5668.94 GARAGE 4187.90* ALTER 10,472. 35 DISTCBD -70.59* SCH1 SCH3 11,816. 1 3 5767.94* NONRES1 -14,787 .01 NONRES3 DENSE 1 DENSE3 3986.99* PARK 1 -16823. 99 PARK3 -5036.36 DISTLINE 6.55* 2.15* DISTSTAT -4.72* .24* UNIVED HHSIZE RENTAL 536.33 DEP 1450.24 OLDUNITS -401.15 NONENG 839.50* MEANY 1 .95 CONSTANT -59,825 54,994 R-SQUARED . 1 1 . 1 1 A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s are s i g n i f i c a n t at the 10% l e v e l unless denoted by a *. 93 T a b l e X - The DISTSTAT V a r i a b l e f r o m 1971 t o 1982 f o r C r o s s - s e c t i o n a l YEAR COEFFICIENT T-STAT 1971 .14 .27 1972 .057 .10 1973 .36 .58 1974 -.97 -1.57 1975 -1.19 - 1 . 8 1 * 1976 .68 .71 1977 .45 .33 1978 1.28 1.61 1979 -1.16 -1.08 1980 -1.33 -.87 1981 -4.72 -1.25 1982 -.24 -.09 * S i g n i f i c a n t a t 10% l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e i n two t a i l e d t e s t . 94 T a b l e X I - V a r i a b l e s i n t h e F i r s t E q u a t i o n L OTSIZE AREA AGE BASE HARDWOOD PLUMB HEAT F I R E GARAGE ALTER DISTSTAT DISTCBD D I S T L I N E SCH1 SCH3 NONRES1 NONRES3 PARK 1 PARK 3 DENSE 1 DENSE3 YR71 TO YR83 * I n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s w i t h YR71 t o YR83 were a l s o i n c l u d e d f o r e a c h v a r i a b l e 95 Table XII - F i n a l Model for A n a l y s i s DEPENDENT VARIABLE.. CONPRICE VARIABLES IN THE EQUATION VARIABLE B T SIG T D74BASE 5820.87 1 .878 0.0604 AREA 15.73 1 2 .543 0.0000 DISTSTAT -1.18 -0 .882 0.3778 HEAT 4101 .30 4 .250 0.0000 D81ALTER 6044.50 2 . 121 0.0340 YR83 20434.42 3 .859 0.0001 HARDWOOD 1596.17 2 . 1 64 0.0305 YR7 1 -20968.70 -5 .229 0.0000 YR72 -15598.25 -4 .225 0.0000 D78CBD 75.68 1 .753 0.0797 D80ALTER 7381.00 3 .958 0.0001 BASE 2684. 1 2 2 .563 0.0104 YR77 6084.41 1 .702 0.0888 D82AREA 5.82 1 .629 0.1034 D76CBD 84.91 2 . 1 75 0.0297 LOTSIZE 2.52 9 .018 0.0000 D73STAT 1 .87 0 .894 0.3712 D75STAT -1 .60 -0 .822 0.4113 DISTCBD -42.49 -3 .339 0.0008 ALTER 1286.25 1 .566 0.1175 D8 1 STAT -~3. 04 1 .465 0.1428 AGE -283. 12 -17 .409 0.0000 D80STAT -0.38 -0 .218 0.8275 PLUMB 1246.34 7 .595 0.0000 D78STAT 2.30 1 .028 0.3041 D76STAT 0.99 0 .476 0.6339 D7 3HEAT -4798.73 -1 .409 0.1589 D74STAT -0.12 -0 .063 0.9497 D82STAT 1 .37 0 .685 0.4932 D83STAT -3.72 -1 .511 0.1308 D81 PLUM 748.72 1 .447 0.1480 D83HEAT -7527.84 -1 .769 0.0769 YR7 5 19667.63 6 .449 0.0000 D73BASE 5181.96 1 .482 0.1385 D7 4HEAT -4647.45 -1 .449 0.1473 D7 1 STAT 2.42 0 .990 0.3223 D72STAT 2.60 1 .074 0.2828 D78PLUM -748.44 -1 .642 0.1007 YR80 22617.87 7 .902 0.0000 D77STAT 1 .26 0 .556 0.5780 YR81 34648.85 7 .795 0.0000 96 VARIABLE YR82 YR7 4 YR73 YR76 YR78 (CONSTANT) TABLE XII (continued) B T 4882.70 17291.96 -3064.46 -851.73 -4340.62 41217.75 072 718 -0.583 -0. 133 -0.531 11.601 T-SIG 0.2837 0.0002 0.5600 0.8939 0.5954 0.0000 ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = .376 STANDARD ERROR = 23,737 F-STATISTIC = 85.75 97 T a b l e X I I I - V a l u e s o f DISTSTAT i n E a c h Y e a r YEAR COEFFICIENT T-STAT 1971 1.23 .60 1972 1.41 .69 1973 .68 .42 1974 -1.30 -.63 1975 -2.78 -1.51 1976 -.18 .11 1977 .06 .037 1978 1.11 .61 1979 -1.18 -.88 1980 -1.56 -1.36 1981 1.85 1.16 1982 .188 .12 1983 -4.90 - 2 . 3 6 * * S i g n i f i c a n t a t 2% l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e i n two t a i l e d t e s t . T a b l e XIV - D i f f e r e n c e s Between DISTSTAT C o e f f i c i e n t s * * 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1971 .16 -.55 -2.54 -4.02 -1.42 -1.17 .12 2.42 -2.45 .62 1.05 -6.14* 1972 -.73 -2.72 -4.20* -1.60 -1.34 -.29 2.60 -2.64 .44 -1.23 -6.33* 1973 -1.99 -3.47* -.86 -.61 .43 1.87 -1.83 1.17 -.5 -5.59* 1974 1.48 1.11 1.37 2.43 -.122 .16 3.16 1.49 -3.60 1975 2.60 2.86 3.91* -1.60 1.56 4.64* 2.98 -2.12 1976 .26 1.30 .99 -1.03 2.05 .37 -4.72* 1977 1.05 1.25 -1.28 1.79 .12 -4.97* CO 1978 2.30 -2.34 .74 -.93 -6.02* 1979 -.38 3.04 1.37 -3.72 1980 3.07 1.40 -3.71 1981 - 1 .67 -6.67* 1982 -5.1* 1983 ** T h i s t a b l e c a l c u l a t e s the d i f f e r e n c e s between the c o e f f i c i e n t s shown i n T a b l e 5.5. The e a r l i e r year i s s u b t r a c t e d from the more r e c e n t year. * The d i f f e r e n c e 1s s i g n i f i c a n t at the 10% l e v e l i n a two t a i l e d t e s t . 99 Table XV - Model Comparing DISTSTAT E f f e c t i n 1983 to a l l Other Years Together DEPENDENT VARIABLE.. CONPRICE VARIABLES IN THE EQUATION VARIABLE B T SIG T DUM83D -4. 54 -2. 140 0.0324 LOTSIZE 2. 51 9.019 0.0000 D81ALTER 5522. 45 1 .952 0.0510 YR71 -17389. 82 -10. 134 0.0000 D80ALTER 7379. 92 3.961 0.0001 YR72 -11989. 03 -7.789 0.0000 HEAT 4097. 00 4.249 0.0000 DISTSTAT - o . 36 -0.795 0.4264 BASE 2581 . 33 2.468 0.0136 D78PLUM -783. 53 -1.727 0.0841 HARDWOOD 1576. 80 2. 140 0.0324 YR77 7880. 32 5.361 0.0000 D76CBD 82. 42 2.206 0.0274 D82AREA 6. 01 1 .690 0.0911 YR73 -701 . 36 -0.156 0.8757 AREA 15. 76 12.594 0.0000 D74BASE 571 2. 90 1 .853 0.0639 DISTCBD -41 . 58 -3.293 0.0010 YR75 17417. 72 13.257 0.0000 ALTER 1311. 93 1 .601 0.1094 YR81 38717. 33 1 1 .254 0.0000 AGE -283. 95 -17.490 0.0000 PLUMB 1 240. 87 7.567 0.0000 YR80 22028. 46 15.987 0.0000 D83HEAT -7524. 80 -1.769 0.0770 D7 4HEAT -4820. 41 -1.508 0.1316 D78CBD 63. 57 1 .552 0.1207 D7 3HEAT -4716. 61 -1.386 0.1658 D73BASE 5402. 94 1 .547 0.1220 YR83 21580. 47 4.326 0.0000 D81 PLUM 821 . 1 5 1 .593 0.1112 YR82 6667. 59 1 .769 0.0769 YR74 17350. 49 4.349 0.0000 YR76 871 . 36 0.181 0.8562 YR78 655. 74 0.101 0.9197 (CONSTANT) 40092. 23 13.126 0.0000 ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = .376 STANDARD ERROR = 23,735 F-STATISTIC = 112.45 1 00 Table XVI - E f f e c t of DISTSTAT i n Kensington Neighbourhood DEPENDENT VARIABLE.. CONPRICE - VARIABLES IN THE EQUATION VARIABLE B T SIG T D81 PLUM 1632.91 2 .568 0.0103 DISTCBD 33.01 1 .098 0.2721 AREA 17.29 1 1 .934 0.0000 HEAT 1055.63 1 .015 0.3102 D71 STAT 0.03 0 .035 0.9725 D72STAT -0.13 -0 .151 0.8803 D77STAT -0.24 -0 .288 0.7733 BASE 2207.31 1 .994 0.0462 D78STAT -0.27 -0 .320 0.7488 HARDWOOD 1415.20 1 .547 0.1220 D75STAT 0.25 0 .311 0.7559 D74STAT 0.55 0 .655 0.5124 D73STAT -0.03 -0 . 041 0.9671 D82STAT 0.37 0 .465 0.6421 LOTSIZE 1 .53 4 .869 0.0000 D80ALTER 5545.55 2 .745 0.0061 D76STAT 0.60 0 .717 0.4734 ALTER -800.79 -0 .886 0.3756 D79HEAT -3081.37 -1 .094 0.2741 AGE -197.88 -10 .746 0.0000 DISTSTAT 0.12 0 . 185 0.8535 D81 ALTER -2793.73 -1 .000 0.3173 PLUMB 1183.62 5 .949 0.0000 YR80 10098.46 1 .748 0.0805 D73BASE 5332.25 1 .519 0.1287 D78PLUM 653.62 1 .356 0.1751 D7 4HEAT -5482.98 -1 .433 0.1519 D79STAT -0.39 -0 .506 0.6125 D73HEAT 1597.33 0 .445 0.6566 D82AREA -6.35 -1 .293 0.1961 D74BASE 4204.82 1 .018 0.3087 D81 STAT 0.51 0 .619 0.5358 YR76 1873.45 0 .161 0.8724 YR7 5 1215.77 0 . 1 94 0.8459 YR77 -4689.84 -0 .726 0.4677 YR7 2 -25157.83 -3 .761 0.0002 YR71 -28766.70 -3 .851 0.0001 D80STAT -0.24 -0 .319 0.7499 YR79 -7591.43 -1 . 1 93 0.2329 YR78 -20057.75 -1 .649 0.0992 YR81 15743.21 2 .256 0.0241 101 Table XVI ( c o n t i inued) VARIABLE B T SIG T YR74 1 057. ,47 0, . 1 36 0 .8916 YR82 4284 , .84 0, .569 0 .5694 YR73 -19478, .24 -2, .504 0 .01 23 D78CBD 84, .38 0, .782 0 .4344 D76CBD -72. .36 -0, .697 0 .4860 (CONSTANT) 46894, .37 7, .342 0 .0000 ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = .324 STANDARD ERROR = 2 4,369 F-STATISTIC = 56.82 1 02 T a b l e X V I I - DISTSTAT V a l u e s a t D i f f e r e n t D i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e S t a t i o n s DISTANCE ( f e e t ) B T-STi 0 t o 200 -151.4 .43 201 t o 4 0 0 -4.30 -1 .09 401 t o 600 -5.61 -.29 601 t o 800 -13.49 -.88 801 t o 1000 7.80 .66 1001 t o 1200 -.21 -.02 1201 t o 1400 -6.24 -.74 1401 t o 1600 -4.74 -.63 1601 t o 1800 -4.55 -.70 1 03 Table XVIII - Turnover Rates i n the C o r r i d o r and Kensington YEAR CORRIDOR KENSINGTON 1 971 3.9* 5.3 1 972 5.2 7.4 1973 7.3 9.3 1 974 8.8 8.4 1 975 8.6 . 8.2 1 976 7.0 8.7 1 977 5.8 7.1 1 978 6.1 8.0 1979 9.9 11.9 1980 11.7 15.0 1 981 6.3 8.6 1 982 6.9 8.7 1983 3.0 3.7 * Turnover Rate = # of s i n g l e f a m i l y s a l e s / # of s i n g l e fam u n i t s 1 04 T a b l e X I X - A v e r a g e S e l l i n g P r i c e s a n d P e r c e n t a g e C h a nges i n t h e C o r r i d o r a n d K e n s i n g t o n CORRIDOR KENSINGTON AVERAGE AVERAGE YEAR PRICE % CHANGE PRIC E %CHAl 1 971 21,311 - 20,614 -1 972 24,907 16.8* 23,068 11.9 1 973 32,192 29.2 30, 117 30.5 1 974 43,868 36.2 42,819 42. 1 1 975 49,072 11.8 47,409 10.7 1 976 51,973 5.9 50,123 5.7 1 977 55,525 6.8 52,172 4.1 1 978 54,230 -2.3 54,295 4.0 1 979 54,777 1 .0 52,014 -4.2 1980 76,906 40.4 75,477 45. 1 1981 108,266 40.7 102,582 35.9 1 982 82,963 -23.4 83,261 -18.8 1 983 81,888 -1.3 88,048 5.7 * P e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e f r o m 1971 t o 1972. 105 V I . SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS 6.1 I m p l i c a t i o n s The d i s c u s s i o n i n C h a p t e r One o u t l i n e d s e v e r a l r e a s o n s why t h i s r e s e a r c h i s p o t e n t i a l l y v a l u a b l e . T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l d i s c u s s t h e r e s u l t s w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h o s e r e a s o n s i n i t i a l l y o u t l i n e d i n C h a p t e r One. W h i l e t h e r e s u l t s show t h a t t h e s t a t i o n s a r e i n f l u e n c i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n 1983, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o make a b r o a d s t a t e m e n t a b o u t how t h i s w i l l a f f e c t t h e p r o p e r t y t a x s t r u c t u r e i n V a n c o u v e r . The r e s u l t s do n o t p r o v i d e a s e t amount t h a t any p r o p e r t y h a s i n c r e a s e d i n v a l u e b u t r a t h e r show how t h e s t a t i o n s a f f e c t t h e v a l u e o f h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o e a c h o t h e r . The c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e c o r r i d o r a n d K e n s i n g t o n f a i l e d t o show h i g h e r a v e r a g e p r i c e s i n t h e c o r r i d o r . The p r o p e r t y t a x b a s e w o u l d be most a f f e c t e d by new d e v e l o p m e n t r a t h e r t h a n c h a n g e s i n c u r r e n t v a l u e s w h i c h may o n l y r e p r e s e n t a r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a l u e f r o m a n o t h e r a r e a . The " t a x i n g b a c k " o r r e c a p t u r e o f p u b l i c l y i n d u c e d i n c r e a s e s i n r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e s h a s r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n i n r e c e n t y e a r s . T h e s e r e s u l t s s e r v e a s a s t a r t i n g p o i n t i n t h i s c o m p l e x i s s u e by i n d i c a t i n g t h a t a premium i s b e i n g p a i d f o r t h e i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , t h e f a c t t h a t t h e s t a t i o n s a r e a f f e c t i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s p r o v i d e s e v i d e n c e s u p p o r t i n g a r e c a p t u r e p o l i c y . P r a c t i c a l l y s p e a k i n g t h e i s s u e i s f a r f r o m c l e a r . One o f t h e m a j o r i s s u e s w o u l d be t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f 1 06 t h e a r e a t h a t w o u l d be s u b j e c t t o t h e e x t r a t a x . I n t h i s s t u d y i t was f o u n d t h a t t h e s t a t i o n s were n o t a f f e c t i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n K e n s i n g t o n , an a r e a o v e r 2400 f e e t f r o m t h e s t a t i o n s . T h i s i s o f l i t t l e h e l p i n i d e n t i f y i n g b o u n d a r i e s s i n c e t h e c o r r i d o r o n l y m e a s u r e d e f f e c t s t o 1800 f e e t , l e a v i n g a gap b e t w e e n t h e two a r e a s . A n o t h e r t h i n g t h i s shows i s t h e r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l i m p a c t a r e a . The l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e D I S T L I N E v a r i a b l e f u r t h e r c o n f u s e s t h e i s s u e a n d n a r r o w s t h e i m p a c t zone t o t h e a r e a s a r o u n d t h e s t a t i o n s . An a d d i t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n r e l a t e s t o t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e i m p a c t s . As t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w showed, t h e i m p a c t s o f t h e i m p r o v e m e n t s c a n c h a n g e o v e r t i m e . One w o u l d have t o be c e r t a i n o f a s u s t a i n e d e f f e c t b e f o r e t h e t a x c o u l d be i n s t i t u t e d . W i t h t h e s e f a c t o r s k e p t i n m i n d , i t i s c l e a r t h a t a more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s of t h e p r a c t i c a l i t y , c o s t , a n d b e n e f i t s o f s u c h a t a x w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y b e f o r e a n y t h i n g c o u l d be i m p l e m e n t e d . E v e n w i t h o u t s u c h a t a x t h e i n c r e a s e i n v a l u e s w o u l d be c a p t u r e d i n t h e r e g u l a r p r o p e r t y t a x . The r e s u l t s c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e r e a r e i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s f r o m t h e s y s t e m i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e d i r e c t e f f e c t s i t w i l l h ave on t h e u s e r s o f t h e s y s t e m . I t i s n o t e w o r t h y t h a t t h e s e e f f e c t s c a n o c c u r b e f o r e t h e s y s t e m i s o p e r a t i o n a l a n d b e f o r e t h e d i r e c t c o s t s and b e n e f i t s a r e f e l t . F i n a l l y , t h i s s t u d y p r o v i d e s t a n g i b l e e v i d e n c e t o d e v e l o p e r s , r e a l e s t a t e a g e n t s , homeowners, a n d t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c t h a t t h e ALRT s y s t e m h a s s t a r t e d t o a f f e c t p r o p e r t y 1 07 v a l u e s i n t h e c o r r i d o r a r e a . 6.2 F u t u r e I m p a c t s The r e s u l t s o f t h i s s t u d y a r e s i m i l a r t o t h e p r e - s e r v i c e i m p a c t s f o u n d i n t h e BART s t u d i e s ( s e e F a l c k e 1978, L e e 1973, D a v i s 1970) a n d t h e s t u d y o f t h e W a s h i n g t o n M e t r o S y s t e m by Lerman i n 1977. H y p o t h e s i s i n g on t h e f u t u r e i m p a c t s o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m i n v o l v e s t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f s e v e r a l f a c t o r s . The l i t e r a t u r e on BART i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n t h r e e o f t h e f o u r s t u d i e s t h e p r e - s e r v i c e i m p a c t s d i m i n i s h e d o nce t h e s y s t e m began o p e r a t i n g . T h i s m a r k e t r e a d j u s t m e n t was most l i k e l y due t o t h e f a i l u r e o f t h e s y s t e m t o meet t h e p u b l i c ' s h i g h e x p e c t a t i o n s o f s e r v i c e l e v e l s . I n t h e c a s e o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m a s u s t a i n e d m a r k e t r e a c t i o n w o u l d a l s o d e p e n d on t h e o p e r a t i o n a l s u c c e s s o f t h e s y s t e m . W h i l e t h e r i s k e l e m e n t s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e ALRT s y s t e m h a v e been m e n t i o n e d s e v e r a l t i m e s , a p r e d i c t i o n on t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e s y s t e m i s b e y o n d t h e s c o p e o f t h i s p a p e r . One c o u l d however i n t e r p r e t t h e p r e - s e r v i c e i m p a c t e v i d e n c e d i n 1983 a s s h o w i n g t h a t t h e m a r k e t i s w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t t h e c u r r e n t l e v e l o f r i s k a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s y s t e m . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l o t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t must be c o n s i d e r e d when t r y i n g t o p r e d i c t t h e f u t u r e e f f e c t s o f t h e ALRT s y s t e m . One i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s t h e C i t y ' s r o l e i n f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t a r o u n d t h e s t a t i o n s . The C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r i s b e i n g f a c e d w i t h b o t h p r e s s u r e s f o r r e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p r e s s u r e s t o k e e p t h e a f f e c t e d n e i g h b o u r h o o d s r e l a t i v e l y u n c h a n g e d . The g u i d e l i n e s t h e C i t y h a s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e 108 s t a t i o n a r e a s e m p h a s i z e r e s i d e n t i a l u s e w i t h d e n s i t i e s a s h i g h a s p o s s i b l e w i t h r e g a r d f o r : • s h a r i n g among n e i g h b o u r h o o d s • ALRT c a p a c i t y • c a p a c i t y o f l o c a l a r e a s t o accommodate b u i l d i n g s a n d p e o p l e • e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f h o u s e h o l d s W h i l e t h e r e i s c u r r e n t l y a f a i r amount o f a m b i g u i t y i n t h e s e g u i d e l i n e s t h e C i t y i s w o r k i n g on t h e i r r e f i n e m e n t a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e . A n o t h e r r e l e v a n t f a c t o r i s t h e V a n c o u v e r C o r e p l a n , w h i c h a d v o c a t e s more h o u s i n g n e a r t h e c o r e a n d t h e r e f o r e makes t h e s t a t i o n a r e a s l i k e l y c a n d i d a t e s f o r d e v e l o p m e n t . The C i t y e s t i m a t e s t h a t t h e s t a t i o n a r e a s c o u l d accommodate a b o u t 5000 more u n i t s o f h o u s i n g . The f i n a I n d i r e c t i o n t h e C i t y t a k e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h i s d e v e l o p m e n t w i l l a f f e c t t h e m a r k e t r e a c t i o n t o t h e ALRT s y s t e m . A f a c t o r t h a t may be c a u s i n g some a d d i t i o n a l h e s i t a t i o n i s t h e r e c e n t v o l a t i l i t y o f t h e V a n c o u v e r r e a l e s t a t e m a r k e t . T h i s f a c t o r may dampen some o f t h e s p e c u l a t i v e f o r c e s a n d t h e r e f o r e d e l a y some o f t h e m a r k e t r e a c t i o n . W h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t o f t h e ALRT s t a t i o n s w i l l be s u s t a i n e d w i l l d e p e n d on some o f t h e i s s u e s p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d . S i n c e t h e p r e s e n t r e s u l t s o n l y i n d i c a t e e f f e c t s i n one y e a r , i t i s h a r d t o make a f i r m p r e d i c t i o n a b o u t t h e f u t u r e . H o wever, b a r r i n g a n y m a j o r p r o b l e m s t h r o u g h o u t c o n s t r u c t i o n one m i g h t 109 r e a s o n a b l y e x p e c t t h e e f f e c t s e v i d e n c e d i n 1983 t o c o n t i n u e u n t i l t h e s y s t e m o p e n s i n 1986. A t t h a t t i m e t h e m a r k e t w i l l be a b l e t o more a c c u r a t e l y j u d g e t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e s y s t e m a n d a d j u s t a c c o r d i n g l y . 6.3 F u t u r e R e s e a r c h The r e s e a r c h i n t h i s s t u d y h a s i d e n t i f i e d ALRT i m p a c t s i n 1983. W h i l e t h i s i s f a i r l y r e c e n t d a t a , i t w o u l d be i n t e r e s t i n g t o c o n t i n u e t h e r e s e a r c h o v e r t h e n e x t s e v e r a l y e a r s t o m o n i t o r t h e i m p a c t s a s t h e s y s t e m becomes o p e r a t i o n a l . The o p e n i n g o f t h e s y s t e m w i l l r e l i e v e much o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t y s u r r o u n d i n g i t w h i c h s h o u l d a l l o w f o r somewhat more c l e a r - c u t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . An a r e a b e y o n d t h e s c o p e of t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n a l e f f e c t s on p r o p e r t y v a l u e s t h a t a p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t c a n c a u s e . K n o w i n g w h e t h e r t h e e f f e c t i n t h e c o r r i d o r a r e a h a s been o f f s e t by a l o s s o f v a l u e e l s e w h e r e i n t h e c i t y i s e s s e n t i a l i n a n s w e r i n g t h e p o l i c y q u e s t i o n s r e l a t e d t o p r o p e r t y t a x e s , r e c a p t u r e t a x e s , and t h e i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s o f t h e s y s t e m . A n o t h e r a r e a f o r r e s e a r c h m i g h t i n c l u d e a c o m p a r i s o n b e t w e e n s t a t i o n a r e a s t o e x a m i n e w h e t h e r t h e s t a t i o n s h a v e d i f f e r e n t i m p a c t s on t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e a r e a s . T h i s c o u l d be done w i t h t h e a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e t e c h n i q u e u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y . A g a i n , t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n w o u l d be h e l p f u l f r o m a p o l i c y p o i n t o f v i e w , b u t e x t e n d s o u t s i d e t h e b o u n d s o f t h i s w o r k . 1 10 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. A l c a l y , R o g e r E. " T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d U r b a n L a n d V a l u e s : A R e v i e w o f t h e T h e o r e t i c a l L i t e r a t u r e " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , 52: 1, F e b r u a r y , 1976. 2. A l l e n , B r u c e and Mudge, R i c h a r d . "A T e c h n i q u e t o A s s e s s t h e M i c r o - I m p a c t o f a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n I n v e s t m e n t " , The  A p p r a i s a l J o u r n a l , A p r i l 1975. 3. A l o n s o , W i l l i a m , L o c a t i o n a n d L a n d Use - T o w a r d a G e n e r a l  T h e o r y o f L a n d R e n t , ( C a m b r i d g e : H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964) . 4. A n d e r s o n , A r n o l d C. "The E f f e c t o f R a p i d T r a n s i t on P r o p e r t y V a l u e s " , A p p r a i s a l J o u r n a l , J a n u a r y 1970. 5. B e r r y , B. and R. B e d n a r z , "A H e d o n i c M o d e l o f P r i c e s a n d A s s e s s m e n t s f o r S i n g l e - F a m i l y Homes: Does t h e A s s e s s o r F o l l o w t h e M a r k e t o r t h e M a r k e t F o l l o w t h e A s s e s s o r ? " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s 5 1 , 1 ( 1 9 7 5 ) : 2 1 - 4 0 . 6. B i j a c , V l a d i m i r . "The E f f e c t s o f a New Subway L i n e on H o u s i n g P r i c e s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o " , U r b a n S t u d i e s , 2: 2 May, 1983. 7. B o y c e , D a v i d E. e t a l . I m p a c t o f R a p i d T r a n s i t on  S u b u r b a n R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y V a l u e s and L a n d D e v e l o p m e n t , P h a s e One R e p o r t t o O f f i c e o f t h e S e c r e t a r y , U.S. D e p t . o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , W a s h i n g t o n , Nov. 1972. 8. D a v i s , F r e d e r i c k . " P r o x i m i t y t o a R a p i d T r a n s i t S t a t i o n a s a F a c t o r i n R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y V a l u e " , A p p r a i s a l  J o u r n a l , O c t o b e r 1970. 9. Dewees, D. "The E f f e c t o f a Subway on R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y V a l u e s i n T o r o n t o " , J o u r n a l o f U r b a n E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 3, 1976. 10. D o r n b u s c h , D a v i d M. B a r t I n d u c e d C hanges i n P r o p e r t y  V a l u e s a n d R e n t s . L a n d Use a n d U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t P r o j e c t , P h a s e 1, B a r t W o r k i n g P a p e r s WP 2 1 - 5 - 7 6 , U.S. D e p t . o f T r a n s p o r t a n d U.S. D e p t . o f H o u s i n g and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t . W h a s h i n g t o n , 1976 11. D o r n b u s c h , D a v i d M. L a n d Use a n d U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t  I m p a c t s o f B a r t : F i n a l R e p o r t . B a r t I m p a c t P r o g r a m FR 14-5-78. B e r k e l e y , M e t r o p o l i t a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o m m i s s i o n , 1978. 12. F a l c k e , C a j 0. B a r t s E f f e c t s on P r o p e r t y P r i c e s a n d  R e n t s , P r e p a r e d by J o h n B l a y n e y A s s o c . / D o r n b u s c h & Co". B a r t I m p a c t P r o g r a m WP-52-5-78. B e r k e l e y , M e t r o p o l i t a n 111 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o m m i s s i o n , 1978 ( r e v i s e d ) . 13. F a l c k e , C a j 0. M e t h o d o l o g i e s f o r A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t s o f  M a j o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n F a c i l i t i e s on L a n d Use and L a n d  P r i c e s , r e p o r t t o U.S. D e p t . o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , C a m b r i d g e , MA, 1982. 14. F a l c k e , C a j 0. and Tom S c h n e t l a g e . S t u d y of P r o p e r t y  A q u i s i t i o n a n d O c c u p a n c y - BART's e f f e c t on S p e c u l a t i o n BART I m p a c t P r o g r a m WP-45-5-78. San F r a n c i s c o , 1978 G o l d b e r g , M i c h a e l A. " T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , U r b a n L a n d V a l u e s and R e n t s - a S y n t h e s i s " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , 46, May 1970. G o l d b e r g , M i c h a e l A. "An E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e I n t e r a c t i o n Between U r b a n T r a n s p o r t and L a n d Use S y s t e m s " , L a n d  E c o n o m i c s , 48, November 1972. G o l d b e r g , M i c h a e l A. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S y s t e m s and U r b a n  Form: P e r f o r m a n c e M e a s u r e s a n d D a t a R e q u i r e m e n t , a p a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Symposium on S u r f a c e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S y s t e m P e r f o r m a n c e , W a s h i n g t o n , May 1981. 18. Graham, Ann, The C a p i t a l i z a t i o n o f V e n d o r F i n a n c i n g i n  H o u s i n g P r i c e s , u n p u b l i s h e d M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s , ( f o r t h c o m i n g ) 19. Kmenta, J a n E l e m e n t s o f E c o n o m e t r i c s , New Y o r k , M a c M i l l a n Co., 1977 20. L e e , D o u g l a s B., J r . e t a l . I m p a c t s o f B a r t on P r i c e s o f  S i n g l e F a m i l y R e s i d e n c e s . I n s t i t u t e o f U r b a n and R e g i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t , B a r t I m p a c t S t u d i e s F i n a l R e p o r t S e r i e s . B e r k e l e y , IURD, U n i v . o f C a l i f o r n i a , 1973. 21. L e r m a n , S t e v e n R. e t a l . The E f f e c t o f t h e W a s h i n g t o n  M e t r o on U r b a n P r o p e r t y V a l u e s , p r e p a r e d by t h e MIT C e n t e r f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d i e s f o r t h e U.S. D e p t . o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , U r b a n Mass T r a n s p o r t a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . W a s h i n g t o n , November 1977. 22. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H. " D e t e r m i n a n t s o f U r b a n House P r i c e s : A M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Comment", U r b a n S t u d i e s , 14 ( 1 9 7 7 a ) : 359-363. 23. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H. " E x t e r n a l i t i e s a n d H o u s i n g V a l u e s " , (Ph.D. D i s s e r t a t i o n , S t . L o u i s : W a s h i n g t o n U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 7 b ) . 24. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H. a n d G o l d b e r g , M i c h a e l A., N e i g h b o r h o o d  Change: A C a n a d i a n P e r s p e c t i v e , W o r k i n g P a p e r No. 919, V a n c o u v e r : D e p a r t m e n t o f U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , r e v i s e d 1984. 25. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H. and M i c h a e l A. G o l d b e r g , " L a n d Use 15. 16. 17. 1 1 2 C o n t r o l s : The C a se o f Z o n i n g i n t h e V a n c o u v e r A r e a " , A m e r i c a n R e a l E s t a t e and U r b a n E c o n o m i c s A s s o c i a t i o n  J o u r n a l , 9, 4, ( W i n t e r , 1 9 8 1 ) : 4 1 8 - 4 3 5 . 26. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H. a n d M i c h a e l A. G o l d b e r g , The I m p a c t s  o f Z o n i n g on H o u s i n g V a l u e s , V a n c o u v e r : D e p a r t m e n t of U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1982. 27. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H., An E m p i r i c a l E x a m i n a t i o n o f The  S t a b i l i t y o f H o u s i n g P r i c e E q u a t i o n s Over T i m e , W o r k i n g P a p e r No. 899, V a n c o u v e r : D e p a r t m e n t o f U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , November 1982. 28. M a r k , J o n a t h a n H. and G. C a m p b e l l . , M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n  A n a l y s i s a n d Mass A s s e s s m e n t : A R e v i e w o f t h e I s s u e s , L i n c o l n I n s t i t u t e o f L a n d P o l i c y , ( F o r t h c o m i n g ) . 29. Mason, J o h n M., "The S u p p l y C u r v e f o r H o u s i n g " , A m e r i c a n  R e a l E s t a t e and U r b a n E c o n o m i c s A s s o c i a t i o n J o u r n a l , 7, 3, ( F a l l 1 9 7 9 ) : 362-377. 30. M i l l e r , R o b e r t and W i c h e r n , Dean, I n t e r m e d i a t e B u s i n e s s  S t a t i s t i c s : A n a l y s i s o f V a r i a n c e , R e g r e s s i o n , and Time  S e r i e s , H o l t , R i n e h a r t and W i n s t o n , T o r o n t o , 1977 31. Mudge, R i c h a r d R. The I m p a c t o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S a v i n g s on  S u b u r b a n R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y V a l u e s , S a n t a M o n i c a , CA., The Rand C o r p o r a t i o n , J u n e 1974. 32. R i c h a r d s o n , H a r r y W., J . V i p o n d , a n d R. F u r b e y , " D e t e r m i n a n t s o f U r b a n House P r i c e s " , U r b a n S t u d i e s , 11, ( 1 9 7 4 ) : 189-199. 33. Soberman, R i c h a r d and H a g a r d , H e a t h e r . C a n a d i a n T r a n s i t  H andbook, U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o , J a n u a r y 1980. 34. U n i t e d S t a t e s D e p a r t m e n t of T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , S o c i a l and  E c o n o m i c E f f e c t s o f H i g h w a y s , W a s h i n g t o n , D . C , F e d e r a l H i g h w a y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , O f f i c e o f P r o g r a m a n d P o l i c y P l a n n i n g , 1974. 35. Z e r b s t , R o b e r t H., a n d G a r y W. E l d r e d , " I m p r o v i n g M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n V a l u a t i o n M o d e l s U s i n g L o c a t i o n and H o u s i n g Q u a l i t y V a r i a b l e s " , A s s e s s o r s J o u r n a l , 12, 1 ( M a r c h , 1 9 7 7 ) : 1-15. 1 13 APPENDIX A - ALRT CHRONOLOGY S e p t e m b e r 1970 - G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R a p i d T r a n s i t S t u d y by DeLeuw C a t h e r Co. f o r GVRD - recommends r a p i d t r a n s i t f o r t h e a r e a and shows most l i k e l y r o u t e s , i n c l u d i n g downtown t o New W e s t m i n s t e r r o u t e O c t o b e r 1971 - R e g i o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a s a GVRD F u n c t i o n - s t u d y r e l e a s e d by GVRD,by A . C . K e l l y - f e e l s d o n ' t n e e d f u l l LRT y e t , j u s t i m p r o v e b us s e r v i c e F e b r u a r y 1972 -A P r e l i m i n a r y S t u d y o f LRT i n V a n c o u v e r - p r e p a r e d by Tom P a r k i n s o n f o r GVRD -o u t l i n e s r o u t e s a n d t y p e s o f s y s t e m s a v a i I a b l e M a r c h 1972 -Downtown V a n c o u v e r - f o r GVRD by W i l b u r A s s o c i a t e s - d e s c r i b e s r a p i d t r a n s i t i n downtown T r a n s i t C o n c e p t s S m i t h a n d a l t e r n a t i v e s May 1975 -LRT, A D e s c r i p t i o n a n d D e f i n i t i o n , A B a c k g r o u n d R e p o r t f o r t h e L i v a b l e R e g i o n 1976/1986 -a r e p o r t by G r e g Thompson f o r GVRD A u g u s t 1975 -Terms o f R e f e r e n c e f o r a P r e l i m i n a r y D e s i g n o f LRT f o r G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r p r e p a r e d by GVRD 1976/1977 - a c t i v i t y c e n t e r e d a r o u n d G V R D / p r o v i n c i a l d i s p u t e s o v e r p l a n n i n g a n d f i n a n c i n g November 24 1977 - f i r s t p r o v i n c i a l g o v ' t a n n o u n c e m e n t o f p r o p o s e d ALRT s t u d i e s 1 1 4 A p r i l 1978 - r e p o r t s GVRD on R a p i d T r a n s i t a u t h o r i z e d by A u g u s t 1978 - R a p i d T r a n s i t T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t 1 a n d 2 r e l e a s e d - r e p o r t i d e n t i f i e d p r i o r i t y r o u t e s o f downtown t o New W e s t m i n s t e r a n d downtown t o R i c h m o n d - i d e n t i f i e d r o u t e t o f o l l o w G r a n d v i e w C u t r i g h t o f way -r e p o r t i n c l u d e d map o f p o s s i b l e r o u t e s J u n e 20 1978 -Hugh C u r t i s , M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s M i n i s t e r s a y s t h a t any r a p i d t r a n s i t w i l l h a v e t o u s e CN a n d CP r i g h t o f ways December 1979 -GVRD r e p o r t s 1 and 2 r e l e a s e d - r e p o r t 1 R e g i o n a l T r a n s i t S t r a t e g y , d e t e r m i n e d LRT was n e e d e d a nd i d e n t i f i e d p r i o r i t y r o u t e s , s t a t i o n d e s i g n s a n d l o c a t i o n s - r e p o r t 2 -showed a e r i a l p h o t o g r a p h s p o s s i b l e r o u t e s o f M i d 1980 -GVRD r e p o r t 4 r e l e a s e d w h i c h d e s c r i b e s t h e t y p e s o f s y s t e m s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n December 7,1980 - B i l l V a n d e r Z a l m a n n o u n c e s t h e c h o i c e o f t h e ALRT t e c h n o l o g y M i d 1981 -GVRD r e p o r t 5 r e l e a s e d (ALRT -P r e l i m i n a r y S e r v i c e S p e c i f i c a t i o n s ) - g a v e a more d e t a i l e d r o u t e d e s c r i p t i o n and s t a t i o n l a y o u t s December 1 1981 -ALRT p u b l i c h e a r i n g h e l d on C o m m e r c i a l D r . r e g a r d i n g r o u t e c o n t r o v e r s y November 1981-March 1982 - s t o r e f r o n t d i s p l a y o p e n e d on C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n t o t h e p u b l i c F e b r u a r y 23 1982 -Sod t u r n i n g f o r c o n t r u c t i o n o f t e s t l i n e ( T e r m i n a l Rd.) 1 1 5 M a r c h 2 1982 A p r i l 7 1982 - r o u t e map p u b l i s h e d i n V a n c o u v e r Sun -ALRT p u b l i c h e a r i n g h e l d i n V a n n e s s D r . a r e a May 20 1982 -Newspaper a r t i c l e r e v e a l s t h a t BC T r a n s i t p l a n s t o a c q u i r e 24 homes a l o n g C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e J u n e 2 1982 -ALRT p u b l i c h e a r i n g h e l d on C o m m e r c i a l D r . r e g a r d i n g r o u t e c o n t r o v e r s y A u g u s t 1982 -ALRT d i s p l a y a t PNE S e p t e m b e r 1982-June 1983 -ALRT d i s p l a y a t B e n t a l l C e n t e r December 1982 - a l i g n m e n t f r o z e n by BC T r a n s i t J a n u a r y - M a r c h 31 1983 -ALRT d i s p l a y a t W e s t m i n s t e r M a l l M a r c h 4 - A p r i l 8 1983 -ALRT d i s p l a y a t L o u g h e e d M a l l A p r i l 1983 -ALRT:A N o i s e S t u d y i s r e l e a s e d A p r i l 5-7 1983 •ALRT d i s p l a y a t PNE d u r i n g c o n v e n t i o n A p r i l 11-15 1983 -ALRT d i s p l a y a t downtown Woodwards J u n e 15-18 1983 -ALRT d i s p l a y a t S e a r s H a r b o u r C e n t e r May 1983 - C o n s t r u c t i o n o f m a i n t e n a n c e f a c i l i t y s t a r t e d J u n e 24 1983 - T e s t s e c t i o n o f f i c i a l l y o p e n e d O c t o b e r 1,1983 - C o s t e s t i m a t e r e v i s e d u p w a r d t o $854 m i l l i o n , a 17% i n c r e a s e . The e x t r a c o s t i s s a i d t o be r e q u i r e d t o pay f o r i n c r e a s e d c a p a c i t y , more c a r s , a n d 1 1 6 m o d i f i c a t i o n o f s t a t i o n p l a n s . C r a c k s a r e f o u n d i n t h e t e s t s e c t i o n c o n c r e t e w o r k . They a r e n o t j u d g e d t o be s e r i o u s . 

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
http://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0096005/manifest

Comment

Related Items