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UBC Theses and Dissertations

An evaluation of pollution control mechanisms in the Paraiba do Sul River basin, Brazil Codato, Eleoterio 1982

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EVALUATION OF POLLUTION CONTROL MECHANISMS IN THE PARAIBA SUL RIVER BASIN - BRAZIL by ELEOTERIO CODATO B.A.Sc., U n i v e r s i d a d e E s t a d u a l De L o n d r i n a , 1976 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE - i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES S c h o o l Of Community And R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA O c t o b e r 1982 © E l e o t e r i o C o d a t o , 1982 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e Head of my Department or by h i s o r h e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . D e partment of S c h o o l Of Community And R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1W5 D a t e : 1 O c t o b e r 1982 i i A b s t r a c t The p u r p o s e of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o e v a l u a t e t h e e x i s t i n g and a l t e r n a t i v e mechanisms f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a do S u l R i v e r B a s i n , i n B r a z i l . I t f o c u s e s on mechanisms-f o r c o n t r o l l i n g p o i n t - s o u r c e s o f p o l l u t i o n . The p h y s i c a l f e a t u r e s , economy, and i n s t i t u t i o n s o f t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n a r e d e s c r i b e d and t h e water q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s and t e c h n i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e i r s o l u t i o n a r e examined. The a n a l y s i s i s b a s e d upon r e p o r t s done by t h e s t a t e p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l a g e n c y (CETESB) and f i e l d i n v e s t i g a t i o n s w h i c h i n v o l v e d i n t e r v i e w s w i t h CETESB's p e r s o n n e l a t t h e c e n t r a l o f f i c e , i n Sao P a u l o , and t h e r e g i o n a l o f f i c e , i n T a u b a t e . The a n a l y s i s o f t h e water q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s and t e c h n i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e i r s o l u t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t r e a t m e n t of m u n i c i p a l d i s c h a r g e s i s of paramount i m p o r t a n c e f o r t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e water q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r and t h a t t h i s c a n be done, a t minimum c o s t , by a d o p t i n g f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r sewage t r e a t m e n t . I t a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h a t s u c h a s o l u t i o n would c a u s e d i s s o l v e d oxygen l e v e l s t o r i s e w e l l above t h e s t a n d a r d i n most s e c t i o n s of t h e r i v e r . T h i s means t h a t a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y f o r b i o c h e m i c a l oxygen demand (BOD) would be c r e a t e d w h i c h c o u l d p o s s i b l y be a l l o c a t e d t o o t h e r d i s c h a r g e r s . Such a s o l u t i o n t o t h e m u n i c i p a l sewage p r o b l e m would, however, impose a heavy b u r d e n upon m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i s not l i k e l y t o come ab o u t u n l e s s m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a r e h e l p e d f i n a n c i a l l y . The a b i l i t y of t h e mechanism t o p r o v i d e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h some f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e and t o a l l o c a t e t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r b o t h e f f i c i e n t l y and e q u i t a b l y were t h e two c r i t e r i a a p p l i e d i n a s s e s s i n g t h e e x i s t i n g s y s t e m f o r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . B a s i n , t h e e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m , and t h e t r a n s f e r a b l e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s (TDP) s y s t e m . T h i s a s s e s s m e n t i n d i c a t e s t h a t o n l y a m o d i f i e d TDP s y s t e m i s l i k e l y t o b r i n g a b o u t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e water q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . An i l l u s t r a t i v e example of t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e TDP s y s t e m t o a s e c t i o n of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i s d e v e l o p e d w h i c h s u g g e s t s t h a t s u c h a s y s t e m would be a b l e t o a d a p t t o c h a n g e s i n w a s t e l o a d s d i s c h a r g e d t o t h e r i v e r and would have t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r r e d u c i n g th e f i n a n c i a l b u rden upon m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i f a l l o c a t i o n s of p e r m i t s t o m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a r e g r e a t e r t h a n d i s c h a r g e r e q u i r e m e n t s w i t h f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s . T a b l e of C o n t e n t s A b s t r a c t i i L i s t of T a b l e s v L i s t of F i g u r e s . . v i Acknowledgement v i i I . INTRODUCTION 1 A. STUDY BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE 4 B. STUDY OBJECTIVES 11 C. STUDY METHODS 13 I I . THE PARAIBA RIVER BASIN: PHYSICAL FEATURES, ECONOMY, AND INSTITUTIONS 15 A. PHYSICAL FEATURES 15 B. . THE ECONOMY OF THE PARAIBA RIVER BASIN - SECTOR PAULISTA 16 C. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS 23 THE EXISTING POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM 23 ISSUANCE OF PERMITS 24 MONITORING AND ENFORCEMENT 2 5 I I I . THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE PARAIBA DO SUL RIVER BASIN 29 A. INDICATORS OF QUALITY 29 DISSOLVED OXYGEN (D.O.) AND BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND (BOD) 30 COLIFORM BACTERIA 31 B. DISSOLVED OXYGEN PREDICTION MODELS 3 2 C. CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES PRESENTED BY THE COLIFORM BACTERIA PROBLEM TO A LEAST-COST SYSTEM TO ACHIEVE THE D.O. STANDARD ....43 D. ANALYSIS OF THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF SEWAGE DISCHARGE FROM URBAN COMMUNITIES 47 CONCLUSION 52 IV. ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING MECHANISM FOR WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ; 53 A. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR MUNICIPALITIES OF THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF SEWAGE DISCHARGE FROM URBAN COMMUNITIES 53 B. ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM 57 C. ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO THE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR THE PARAIBA RIVER BASIN ...60 1. EFFLUENT CHARGES 61 2. TRANSFERABLE DISCHARGE PERMITS 63 APPLICATION OF THE TDP SYSTEM TO THE PARAIBA RIVER (KM 122 TO 266) 67 ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF THE TDP SYSTEM 73 CONCLUSION 7 5 V. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 77 BIBLIOGRAPHY 82 V L i s t of T a b l e s I . O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r A p p l y i n g I n s t i t u t i o n a l I n s t r u m e n t s f o r Water P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l 3 I I . Ambient S t a n d a r d s f o r C l a s s 2 R i v e r s . 9 I I I . Minimum Fl o w s f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r 17 IV. P o p u l a t i o n Growth i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n - S t a t e of Sao P a u l o 19 V. Urban P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s f o r t h e 14 Most P o p u l o u s C i t i e s of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n - Sao P a u l o 21 V I . M o n t h l y R e c o r d s of F e c a l C o l i f o r m C o u n t s f o r 1978, 1979, and 1 980 ( 1 0 3MPN/1 00ml) 35 V I I . L i s t of I n d u s t r i e s R e s p o n s i b l e f o r 85% o f t h e I n d u s t r i a l P o t e n t i a l O r g a n i c L o a d i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n - Sao P a u l o (1980) 37 V I I I . P o t e n t i a l and D i s c h a r g e d BOD L o a d s from Urban Communities (1979) 38 IX. Per C a p i t a C o s t E s t i m a t e s f o r A l t e r n a t i v e Wastewater T r e a t m e n t T e c h n o l o g i e s 45 X. M u n i c i p a l O r g a n i c L o a d s f o r D i f f e r e n t BOD Removal R a t e s 49 X I . M u n i c i p a l D i s c h a r g e s f o r a 90% BOD Removal Rate - 1980 and 1985 51 X I I . I n v e s t m e n t s and C o s t p e r C a p i t a f o r t h e C o n s t r u c t i o n of F a c u l t a t i v e L a goons f o r t h e C i t i e s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n - S a o P a u l o (1979) 55 X I I I . M u n i c i p a l G r o s s L o a d s f o r 1980, 1 9 8 5 , and 1990. ...69 XIV. L i s t of I n d u s t r i e s and T h e i r P o t e n t i a l and D i s c h a r g e d BOD L o a d i n g s i n Reach Km 122 t o 266 (1980) 70 v i L i s t of F i g u r e s 1. Map of t h e P a r a i b a do S u l R i v e r B a s i n 6 2. C u r v e of D i s s o l v e d Oxygen f o r Low Flow P e r i o d s (1971-1977) 34 3. C u r v e s of D i s s o l v e d Oxygen O b t a i n e d w i t h A p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e MAPS S i m u l a t i o n M odel 41 4. D i s s o l v e d Oxygen S i m u l a t i o n C u r v e f o r BOD C u t b a c k s o f 90% a t Sao J o s e dos Campos, 50% a t Simao, and 40% a t A l l O t h e r C i t i e s 42 v i i Acknowledgement I would l i k e t o e x p r e s s my p r o f o u n d g r a t i t u d e t o my p a r e n t s n o t o n l y f o r t h e f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t t h e y p r o v i d e d b u t , more i m p o r t a n t l y , f o r t h e e v e r l a s t i n g e ncouragement t o p u r s u e my a c a d e m i c and p r o f e s s i o n a l i d e a l s . I would a l s o l i k e t o thank b o t h Tony D o r c e y and I r v i n g Fox f o r t h e i r d e d i c a t i o n and p a t i e n c e i n r e v i s i n g t h i s t h e s i s so many t i m e s , a s w e l l a s p r o v i d i n g c o n s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m and s u g g e s t i o n s . F i n a l l y , I would l i k e t o thank a l l of my f r i e n d s , e s p e c i a l l y J i l l McKee, K a t h y B r o o k s , and Mike Taschuk f o r t h e i r s i n c e r e f r i e n d s h i p w h i c h made my s t a y i n Canada as p l e a s a n t as i t c o u l d e v e r be. 1 I . INTRODUCTION The o b j e c t o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o examine and e v a l u a t e t h e e x i s t i n g and a l t e r n a t i v e water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l mechanisms f o r t h e P a r a i b a do S u l R i v e r , i n t h e S t a t e of Sao P a u l o - B r a z i l . F o r t h e l a s t d ecade t h e r e has been m o u n t i n g c o n c e r n f o r water q u a l i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . The b a s i n has been e x p e r i e n c i n g i n c r e a s e s i n p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h w h i l e t h e r i v e r i s u s e d as a s o u r c e of d r i n k i n g water f o r numerous u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a of R i o de Jane i r o . F o r many y e a r s , t h e a p p a r e n t abundance and a v a i l a b i l i t y of B r a z i l ' s w a ter r e s o u r c e s l e d many t o b e l i e v e t h a t water of d e s i r a b l e q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y would be a b l e t o s u s t a i n s e r v i c e s i n d e f i n i t e l y . U n t i l 1973, B r a z i l had r e j e c t e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l p rograms a s an o b s t a c l e t o d e v e l o p m e n t . D e a l i n g w i t h p r o b l e m s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l p o l l u t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d a l u x u r y t h a t o n l y h i g h l y d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s c o u l d a f f o r d . However, as economic and p o p u l a t i o n growth have p r o c e e d e d .in c e r t a i n a r e a s of B r a z i l , c o n f l i c t i n g demands on water have i n t e n s i f i e d . T h i s has l e d t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a c t i v e m e asures t o p r o t e c t i t s q u a l i t y , c o n t r o l i t s f l o w s , and m e d i a t e between c o m p e t i n g demands f o r water r e s o u r c e s . T h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s s o l e l y on one a s p e c t of t h e w ater r e s o u r c e p r o b l e m i n one s e t t i n g : c o n t r o l l i n g p o i n t s o u r c e s of p o l l u t i o n i n t h e P a r a i b a do S u l R i v e r . P o l l u t i o n , by i t s v e r y n a t u r e , i s a t y p i c a l p r o b l e m of e x t e r n a l i t y and, t h e r e f o r e , c a l l s f o r g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n . In c o n t r o l l i n g p o l l u t i o n , t h e government can make use of 2 numerous mechanisms w h i c h can be g r o u p e d i n t o : (1) m o r a l s u a s i o n , (2) t a x a t i o n , (3) s u b s i d i e s , and (4) r e g u l a t i o n s . A l s o , t h e s e p o l i c y mechanisms may be a p p l i e d a t d i f f e r e n t s t a g e s of p r o d u c t i o n and c o n s u m p t i o n of goods w h i c h c a u s e p o l l u t i o n . G rima (1981) summarizes, i n a t a b l e , t h e v a r i o u s s t a g e s o f p r o d u c t i o n and c o n s u m p t i o n and t h e d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y mechanisms f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l t h a t may be a p p l i e d i n e a c h of t h e s e s t a g e s . F o r i l l u s t r a t i v e p u r p o s e s , t h e t a b l e i s r e p r o d u c e d below. B e c a u s e t h e e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n i s d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s c o n t r o l l i n g p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e s -- a l t h o u g h ambient s t a n d a r d s f o r water e x i s t --, I have r e s t r i c t e d t h i s a n a l y s i s t o t h o s e mechanisms t h a t c a n be a p p l i e d t o c o n t r o l p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e s . T h i s does not n e g a t e t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f o t h e r s t a g e s o f p r o d u c t i o n and c o n s u m p t i o n and t h e a p p l i c a b l e p o l i c y mechanisms i n c o n t r o l l i n g w a t e r p o l l u t i o n . The l i t e r a t u r e on p o l i c y mechanisms f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i s v a s t and one can f i n d a t l e a s t one argument i n f a v o r of e a c h d i f f e r e n t mechanism known t o d a t e . These arguments may v a r y i n n a t u r e . Some a r e b a s e d on t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t s , s u c h as t h e arguments e c o n o m i s t s make i n s u p p o r t of t h e e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m , w h i l e o t h e r s a r e b a s e d on p r a c t i c a l e x p e r i e n c e s . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of a complex water q u a l i t y management s y s t e m i n t h e Ruhr r e g i o n , i n Germany, b a s e d on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of c o l l e c t i v e t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s and a p p l i c a t i o n of u s e r c h a r g e s i s , p e r h a p s , one of t h e b e s t known s u c c e s s f u l e x p e r i e n c e s t h a t 3 Table I - Opportunities f o r Applying I n s t i t u t i o n a l Instruments for Water Polution Control Production - Consumption Stage Pol i c y Instrument Input Mix user charges taxes, p r i c i n g raw materials s p e c i f i c a t i o n subsidies/grants Production land use zoning taxes subsidies/grants process s p e c i f i c a t i o n Product Output product s p e c i f i c a t i o n taxes Product Use taxes subsidies/grants Pollutant Discharge c o l l e c t i v e treatment (user charges) e f f l u e n t charges emission standards subsidies/grants d i l u t i o n r i g h t s / t r a n s f e r a b l e discharge permits withold discharge during periods of low flow Environment (ambient water) ambient standards mixing zones s p e c i f i c a t i o n s Source: A.P. Grima, " I n s t i t u t i o n a l Instruments for Water P o l l u t i o n Control", GeoJournal, V o l . 5 (1981), No. 5, p.504. 4 s u p p o r t s t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of a u s e r c h a r g e s y s t e m . 1 O t h e r p r a c t i c a l e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h d i f f e r e n t k i n d s of p o l i c y mechanisms a r e r e l a t e d by J o h n s o n and Brown. 2 The e x i s t i n g mechanism f o r w a t e r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n i s e s s e n t i a l l y r e g u l a t o r y . The Company of E n v i r o n m e n t a l S a n i t a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y (CETESB) i s t h e s t a t e a g e n c y i n c h a r g e of p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l . I t i s s u e s p e r m i t s and c h e c k s c o m p l i a n c e w i t h p e r m i t terms and e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s . A l t h o u g h ambient s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e water e x i s t , m o n i t o r i n g of t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s i s n o t c o n d u c t e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f c h e c k i n g c o m p l i a n c e b u t , r a t h e r , f o r d e t e r m i n i n g i n d i c e s of w ater q u a l i t y . In t h i s s t u d y , I w i l l d e s c r i b e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e p r o b l e m s i n v o l v i n g water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h a t b a s i n and, t h e n , a c c o r d i n g t o c r i t e r i a d e r i v e d from t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h o s e p r o b l e m s , a s s e s s t h e e x i s t i n g s y s t e m and t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y of a l t e r n a t i v e mechanisms. A. STUDY BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE U n l i k e t h e F r a s e r R i v e r , t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , i n i t s u n d e v e l o p e d s t a t e , i s not what one c o u l d c a l l a v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e . The P a r a i b a i s not famous f o r s u p p o r t i n g v a l u a b l e a q u a t i c l i f e or r e l a t e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . 1 A l l e n V. Kneese and B l a i r T. Bower. Managing Water Q u a l i t y :  E c o n o m i c s , T e c h n o l o g y , I n s t i t u t i o n s . The J o h n s H o p k i n s P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e , 1968. 2 R a l p h W. J o h n s o n and G a r d n e r M. BrownJr. C l e a n i n g Up E u r o p e ' s  W a t e r s . New Y o r k : P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1976. 5 However, t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i s v i t a l t o t h e r e g i o n t h r o u g h w h i c h i t f l o w s . I t i s t h e m a j o r s o u r c e o f d r i n k i n g w ater f o r t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s l o c a t e d a l o n g i t s c o u r s e and i s a l s o a major s o u r c e of water f o r i r r i g a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l p u r p o s e s . In 1976, an a v e r a g e of 7.1m 3/s of water were b e i n g w i t h d r a w n f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g u s e s : m u n i c i p a l w ater s u p p l y ( 7 % ) ; i n d u s t r i a l ( 2 3 % ) ; and i r r i g a t i o n ( 7 0 % ) . 3 P r o j e c t e d demands f o r t h e y e a r 2000 i n d i c a t e t h a t water w i t h d r a w l s w i l l be on t h e o r d e r o f 65m 3/s f o r t h e months o f November t o J a n u a r y when i r r i g a t i o n i s a t i t s peak. The s h a r e s among t h e d i f f e r e n t u s e s a r e p r o j e c t e d as f o l l o w s : m u n i c i p a l water s u p p l y ( 1 2 % ) ; i n d u s t r i a l ( 2 6 % ) ; and i r r i g a t i o n ( 6 2 % ) . 4 S p o r t s f i s h i n g and o t h e r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o water o c c u r m o s t l y i n t h e r e s e r v o i r s of t h r e e h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p l a n t s ( P a r a i b u n a - - P a r a i t i n g a ; S a n t a B r a n c a ; and J a g u a r i ) , w h i c h l i e i n t h e upper p o r t i o n of t h e b a s i n . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y i s o n l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i n t h e S t a t e of Sao P a u l o and, more s p e c i f i c a l l y , w i t h t h e r e a c h between t h e S a n t a B r a n c a r e s e r v o i r and t h e b o r d e r between t h e s t a t e s of Sao P a u l o and R i o de J a n e i r o (see map o f t h e b a s i n - f i g . 1 ) . To some e x t e n t , a l l of t h e u s e s r e q u i r e w ater of c e r t a i n q u a l i t y i n o r d e r t o e x i s t . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e y a l l c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f w ater q u a l i t y i n t h e b a s i n . 3 W o r l d H e a l t h O r g a n i z a t i o n . P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n Water Q u a l i t y F o r e c a s t i n g and Management , 1977. a CEEIVAP, 1979. P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0002/79 - R e l a t o r i o no.2, pp.8-9. 7 Water f o r d r i n k i n g , i n d u s t r i a l , and i r r i g a t i o n p u r p o s e s i s r e t u r n e d t o t h e r i v e r a f t e r use i n t h e form of w a s t e w a t e r c o n t a i n i n g o r g a n i c and i n o r g a n i c w a s t e s . Water f o r d r i n k i n g p u r p o s e s u n d o u b t e d l y i s i n g r e a t e s t need of a t t e n t i o n i n s o f a r a s water q u a l i t y i s c o n c e r n e d . A l t h o u g h water f o r t h i s p u r p o s e can be t r e a t e d p r i o r t o d i s t r i b u t i o n f o r c o n s u m p t i o n , t h e s o u r c e has t o c o n f o r m t o c e r t a i n p a r a m e t e r s i n o r d e r t o be s u i t a b l e f o r t r e a t m e n t . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e p r i n c i p l e t h a t a w a t e r b o d y s h o u l d c o n f o r m t o c e r t a i n p a r a m e t e r s i n o r d e r t o a l l o w s p e c i f i c u s e s , t h e f e d e r a l M i n i s t r y of t h e I n t e r i o r e s t a b l i s h e d , t h r o u g h i t s A c t no.0013 of J a n u a r y 15, 1976, a g e n e r a l w a t erbody c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s y s t e m . T h i s s y s t e m c o n s i d e r s f o u r d i f f e r e n t c l a s s e s of w a t e r b o d i e s — C l a s s 1, 2, 3, and 4 -- t o w h i c h d i f f e r e n t a m b i ent s t a n d a r d s a p p l y . C l a s s 1 w a t e r b o d i e s c a n n o t r e c e i v e any e f f l u e n t s , even i f t h e r e i s t r e a t m e n t p r i o r t o d i s c h a r g e . The ambient s t a n d a r d s become l e s s s t r i c t from C l a s s 2 t o C l a s s 4. The a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s y s t e m t o t h e v a r i o u s w a t e r b o d i e s was l e f t up t o e a c h i n d i v i d u a l s t a t e , s i n c e t h e y were i n t h e b e s t p o s i t i o n t o d e t e r m i n e t h e p r e d o m i n a n t u s e s of water f o r e a c h w a t e r b o d y . In t h e s t a t e of Sao P a u l o , t h e s t a t e d e c r e e no.10755 of November 22, 1977, c l a s s i f i e s e a c h w a t e r b o d y a c c o r d i n g t o t h e water c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s y s t e m . The P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n has p a r t s w h i c h a r e C l a s s 1, o t h e r s w h i c h a r e C l a s s 2, and s t i l l o t h e r s w h i c h a r e C l a s s 4. The r e a c h of the P a r a i b a R i v e r which i s of i n t e r e s t t o t h i s t h e s i s i s C l a s s 2 and t h e ambient s t a n d a r d s f o r t h i s c l a s s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 8 II below. These ambient s t a n d a r d s seem t o p r o v i d e an a c c e p t a b l e framework t o d e t e r m i n e l e v e l s o f water q u a l i t y . They a r e c o m p a r a b l e t o t h e s t a n d a r d s e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e Water Q u a l i t y C r i t e r i a (1972) by t h e E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n Agency (EPA) of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , as w e l l as t o s t a n d a r d s e s t a b l i s h e d by o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . The P a r a i b a R i v e r i s one of t h e most s t u d i e d r i v e r s i n B r a z i l . S t u d i e s d a t i n g from 1963 d e a l w i t h t h e r i v e r ' s h y d r o l o g i c a l f e a t u r e s and i t s p o t e n t i a l f o r hydropower d e v e l o p m e n t . Many o t h e r s t u d i e s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e management of water q u a n t i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r were d e v e l o p e d i n t h e 60's and 70's. A l t h o u g h a s i m u l a t i o n s t u d y of w ater p o l l u t i o n i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r was done i n 1974 5 , t h e f i r s t s t u d y on water q u a l i t y management was not done u n t i l 1976, a f t e r s t a t e ambient and e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s were e s t a b l i s h e d . T h a t s t u d y of water q u a l i t y management r e c o g n i z e s p o l l u t i o n c a u s e d by b i o d e g r a d a b l e o r g a n i c waste t o be v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r and p r e s e n t s a l t e r n a t i v e schemes f o r c u r t a i l i n g b i o c h e m i c a l oxygen demand (BOD) w h i c h would be n e c e s s a r y t o make t h e r i v e r c o n f o r m t o t h e s t a n d a r d f o r d i s s o l v e d oxygen. The same s t u d y a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a p r o b l e m c a u s e d by t h e l a r g e amounts of raw sewage b e i n g d i s c h a r g e d i n t o t h e r i v e r i s s e r i o u s . 5 C a r a i R.A. B a s t o s e t a l . Urn E s f o r c o p a r a S i m u l a r a P o l u i c a o  das Aguas na B a c i a do P a r a i b a do S u l . CETESB, J u l y / D e c e m b e r , 1974. 9 T a b l e I I - A m b i e n t S t a n d a r d s f o r C l a s s 2 R i v e r s PARAMETER STANDARDS Amonia 0.5mg o f N per l i t e r A r s e n i c 0 . 1 m g / l B a r i u m 1 . 0 m g / l Cadmium 0 . 0 1 m g / l Chromium ( t o t a l ) 0 . 0 5 m g / l C y a n i d e 0 . 2 m g / l C o p p e r 1 . 0 m g / l Lead 0 . 1 m g / l T i n 2 . 0 m g / l P h e n o l s 0 . 0 0 1 m g / l F l u o r i n e 1 . 4 m g / l Mercury 0 . 0 0 2 m g / l N i t r a t e lO.Omg o f N p e r l i t e r N i t r i t e l .Omg of N per l i t e r S e l e n i u m 0 . 0 1 m g / l Z i n c 5 . 0 m g / l T o t a l C o l i f o r m (MPN) 5 , 0 0 0 / l O O m l F e c a l C o l i f o r m (MPN) 1 ,000 /LOOml BOD (5 days a t 2 0 ° C ) 5 m g / l DO 5 m g / l S o u r c e : C E T E S B , L e g i s l a c a o B a s i c a P o l u i c a o A m b i e n t a l E s t a d u a l e F e d e r a l ( L e g i s l a c a o E s s t a d u a l ) , 1980, p p . 11 -12 . 10 A n o t h e r s t u d y — Q u a l i d a d e das Aguas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l — done by CETESB i n 1978, and r e v i s e d i n 1980, c o n c l u d e s t h a t w a ter q u a l i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i s m o s t l y a f f e c t e d by d i s c h a r g e s o f raw sewage i n t o t h e r i v e r and t h a t t h i s has been c a u s i n g a p r o g r e s s i v e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f water q u a l i t y , i n t e r m s o f d i s s o l v e d oxygen and c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a l e v e l s . The s t u d y a l s o c o n c l u d e s t h a t h i g h l e v e l s o f p h e n o l s i n t h e P a r a i b a a r e c a u s e d by t h e d i s c h a r g e o f sewage and w a s t e s from p u l p and p a p e r m i l l s , as w e l l a s i n s e c t i c i d e s r e c e i v e d t h r o u g h a g r i c u l t u r a l r u n - o f f . G i v e n t h a t m u n i c i p a l d i s c h a r g e s a r e t h e major s o u r c e of p h e n o l s i n t h e c a s e of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , and t h a t t h e t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m c a u s e d by t h e s e d i s c h a r g e s w i l l l i k e l y l o w e r p h e n o l l e v e l s , t h i s s t u d y w i l l not g i v e e x p l i c i t a t t e n t i o n t o p h e n o l s . S e v e r a l o t h e r t e c h n i c a l s t u d i e s c o m p l e t e d on water q u a l i t y a r e not m e n t i o n e d h e r e . More r e c e n t l y , t h e E x e c u t i v e Committee f o r t h e I n t e g r a t e d S t u d i e s of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n (CEEIVAP) was c r e a t e d and a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k of making recommendations f o r t h e a d o p t i o n o f w ater p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l p o l i c i e s f o r t h e whole b a s i n , i n c l u d i n g t h e s t a t e s of M i n a s G e r a i s , R i o de J a n e i r o , and Sao P a u l o . T h i s c ommittee has p u t t o g e t h e r a number of r e p o r t s , some of w h i c h were u s e d as s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h i s t h e s i s . At a t i m e when new water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l p o l i c i e s f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a r e b e i n g s t u d i e d , i t may be a d v a n t a g e o u s t o l o o k a t a l t e r n a t i v e mechanisms f o r p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . 11 B. STUDY OBJECTIVES The g e n e r a l g o a l of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o e x p l o r e mechanisms w h i c h a r e l i k e l y t o b r i n g a b o u t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h e water q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a do S u l R i v e r , i n t h e S t a t e o f Sao P a u l o . T h i s g e n e r a l g o a l c an be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o more s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h o b j e c t i v e s : I . D e s c r i b e t h e p h y s i c a l , e c o n o m i c , and i n s t i t u t i o n a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n so as t o c r e a t e t h e c o n t e x t i n w h i c h t h i s s t u d y has t o be d e v e l o p e d . In C h a p t e r Two, I b r i e f l y d e s c r i b e t h e most i m p o r t a n t p h y s i c a l and economic f e a t u r e s o f t h e b a s i n , and s p e c i f y i n somewhat g r e a t e r d e t a i l t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l a s p e c t s of t h e water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m i n e f f e c t . In d e s c r i b i n g t h e water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m i n e f f e c t i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n , I have made use of t h e s t a t e l e g i s l a t i o n w h i c h d e f i n e s t h a t s y s t e m , more s p e c i f i c a l l y Law no.997 of May, 1976, as w e l l as i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d i n a v i s i t t o CETESB on how t h e s y s t e m a c t u a l l y works. The d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e e x i s t i n g r e g u l a t o r y s y s t e m i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o two p a r t s : ( i ) i s s u a n c e of p e r m i t s ; and, ( i i ) m o n i t o r i n g and e n f o r c e m e n t . The s e c t i o n c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e i s s u a n c e of p e r m i t s d e s c r i b e s t h e p r o c e d u r e s a p p l i c a n t s have t o go t h r o u g h i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n p e r m i t s t o l o c a t e and o p e r a t e p o l l u t i n g a c t i v i t i e s . The s e c o n d s e c t i o n on t h e m o n i t o r i n g and e n f o r c e m e n t of r e g u l a t i o n s d e s c r i b e s t h e p r o c e d u r e s a p p l i e d by CETESB i n m o n i t o r i n g e f f l u e n t q u a l i t y from 1 2 p o i n t s o u r c e s of p o l l u t i o n and i n e n f o r c i n g c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e r e g u l a t i o n s i n e f f e c t . I I . Examine t h e t e c h n i c a l w ater q u a l i t y management p r o b l e m s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . In C h a p t e r T h r e e , I i d e n t i f y and d e s c r i b e t h e water q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s as i n d i c a t e d by an a n a l y s i s of d a t a on water q u a l i t y g a t h e r e d by CETESB t h r o u g h t h e y e a r s . T h i s i s f o l l o w e d by an e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e t o d e a l w i t h t h e s e p r o b l e m s and an a n a l y s i s of t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s o l u t i o n o f f e r e d by t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a water q u a l i t y management program f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . From t h e f o r e g o i n g a n a l y s i s I d e r i v e c r i t e r i a t h a t a s y s t e m s h o u l d meet i n o r d e r t o b r i n g a b o u t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e water q u a l i t y l e v e l e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . I I I . A s s e s s t h e e x i s t i n g mechanism f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n a c c o r d i n g t o c e r t a i n c r i t e r i a . In C h a p t e r F o u r , I a s s e s s t h e e x i s t i n g mechanism f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p t e r Two a c c o r d i n g t o c r i t e r i a d e r i v e d from t h e a n a l y s i s of t h e p r o b l e m s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r water q u a l i t y management c a r r i e d out i n C h a p t e r T h r e e . Such an a s s e s s m e n t i s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f d e t e r m i n i n g whether t h e framework p r o v i d e d by the e x i s t i n g water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m i s a d e q u a t e t o d e a l w i t h t h e w ater q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s i n t h e b a s i n and f o r i d e n t i f y i n g any 13 d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h a t s y s t e m , i . e . what i t f a i l s t o a d d r e s s . IV. A s s e s s t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y of a l t e r n a t i v e mechanisms f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , a t t h e s t a g e of p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e . A l s o i n C h a p t e r F o u r , I a s s e s s t h e a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f a l t e r n a t i v e mechanisms f o r c o n t r o l l i n g p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e same c r i t e r i a u s e d i n t h e a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e e x i s t i n g water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . T h i s s e c t i o n of t h e s t u d y aims a t p r o v i d i n g a l t e r n a t i v e v i e w s on how t h e p r o b l e m s of p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n may be d e a l t w i t h . C. STUDY METHODS The b a c k g r o u n d and t h e o r e t i c a l r e s e a r c h f o r t h i s t h e s i s c o n s i s t e d o f r e v i e w i n g g e n e r a l l i t e r a t u r e on e c o n o m i c , e c o l o g i c a l , e n g i n e e r i n g , and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a s p e c t s of water p o l l u t i o n and i t s abatement, as w e l l as documents, p a p e r s , and r e p o r t s on s p e c i f i c p o l l u t i o n p r o b l e m s of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . In a d d i t i o n , I e x a m i n e d t h e e x i s t i n g l e g i s l a t i o n , b o t h f e d e r a l and s t a t e , on water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l . My p r i n c i p a l s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e e x i s t i n g s y s t e m f o r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l and t h e p r o c e d u r e s e s t a b l i s h e d by i t was th e s t a t e Law no.997 of May, 1976, a l t h o u g h o t h e r s o u r c e s s u c h as i n t e r v i e w s w i t h CETESB's s t a f f members and i n s p e c t i o n of t h e f i l e s of some d i s c h a r g e r s a l s o c o n t r i b u t e d . The i n s p e c t i o n of d i s c h a r g e r s ' f i l e s p r o v i d e d me w i t h a b e t t e r i n s i g h t i n t o t h e s t e p s t a k e n t o c a r r y out t h e p r o c e d u r e s e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e 1 4 l e g i s l a t i o n . D a t a on water q u a l i t y were drawn from s e v e r a l s t u d i e s and r e p o r t s done by CETESB and, a l s o , from a number o f CEEIVAP's r e p o r t s . 15 I I . THE PARAIBA RIVER BASIN: PHYSICAL FEATURES, ECONOMY, AND INSTITUTIONS A. PHYSICAL FEATURES The P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n i s l o c a t e d i n s o u t h e a s t e r n B r a z i l between t h e p a r a l l e l s 20°26' and 2 3 °38' and t h e l o n g i t u d e s 41°00' and 46°30'W. I t has a t o t a l a r e a of 55,400 s q u a r e k i l o m e t e r s w h i c h i s s h a r e d by t h e s t a t e s of R i o de J a n e i r o , M i n a s G e r a i s , and Sao P a u l o . The P a r a i b a V a l l e y forms a n a t u r a l c o r r i d o r o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h r e e h u n d r e d k i l o m e t e r s l i n k i n g t h e c i t i e s of Sao P a u l o and R i o de J a n e i r o . The P a r a i b a R i v e r i s formed by t h e P a r a i b u n a R i v e r and t h e P a r a i t i n g a R i v e r , i n t h e S t a t e o f Sao P a u l o . The major t r i b u t a r i e s o f t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a r e : t h e J a g u a r i and B u q u i r a r i v e r s , i n t h e S t a t e o f Sao P a u l o ; and t h e P i r a i , P r e t o , P i a b a n h a and D o i s R i o s r i v e r s , i n t h e S t a t e of R i o de J a n e i r o . The P a r a i b a R i v e r f l o w s westward u n t i l i t r e a c h e s Guararema. T h e r e , t h e P a r a i b a i s b l o c k e d by t h e M a n t i q u e i r a m o u n t a i n range w h i c h makes i t t u r n a l m o s t 180° and f l o w e a s t w a r d u n t i l m e e t i n g the w a t e r s of t h e A t l a n t i c Ocean, n e a r Campos i n t h e S t a t e of R i o de J a n e i r o . In i t s c o u r s e of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,100 k i l o m e t e r s , t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r f l o w s t h r o u g h v a r i o u s d i s t i n c t i v e t e r r a i n s . From i t s h e a d w a t e r s , a t an a l t i t u d e of 1,800 m e t e r s , down t o Guararema, a t an a l t i t u d e of 572 m e t e r s , t h e P a r a i b a r u n s t h r o u g h a r c h e a n t e r r a i n s and p r e s e n t s s t e e p i n c l i n a t i o n s . T h i s 280 k i l o m e t e r s t r e t c h i s c a l l e d Upper P a r a i b a . 1 6 From Guararema t o C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a , a t an a l t i t u d e of 515 m e t e r s , t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r r u n s f o r 300 k i l o m e t e r s on s e d i m e n t a r y t e r r a i n s of t e r t i a r y o r i g i n . E n t r e n c h e d by t h e M a n t i q u e i r a m o u n t a i n r a n g e on t h e n o r t h and by t h e S e r r a do Mar c o a s t a l r a n g e on t h e s o u t h , t h e P a r a i b a moves i n a t w i s t i n g c o u r s e t h r o u g h a l a r g e f l a t v a l l e y . T h i s s t r e t c h i s known as t h e U p p e r - m i d d l e P a r a i b a , o r s i m p l y M i d d l e P a r a i b a i n t h e S t a t e o f Sao P a u l o . From C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a t o Sao F i d e l i s , a t an e l e v a t i o n o f 20 m e t e r s , t h e P a r a i b a f l o w s on a r c h e a n t e r r a i n s f o r 430 k i l o m e t e r s . In t h i s s t r e t c h , t h e a v e r a g e i n c l i n a t i o n i s s l i g h t l y o v e r 0.001 meter p e r m e t e r . F i n a l l y , t h e P a r a i b a r u n s f o r 90 k i l o m e t e r s w i t h v e r y s m a l l i n c l i n a t i o n s r e a c h i n g i t s e s t u a r y . T h i s s t r e t c h i s known as Lower P a r a i b a . In t h e S t a t e of Sao P a u l o , t h e f l o w of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i s c o n t r o l l e d by two r e s e r v o i r s above Guararema and one on t h e J a g u a r i R i v e r above Sao J o s e dos Campos. The minimum f l o w s f o r s e v e r a l p o i n t s on t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a r e e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e minimum d i s c h a r g e s of 40m 3/s and I0m 3/s a t t h e S a n t a B r a n c a and t h e J a g u a r i r e s e r v o i r s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . These minimum f l o w s a r e shown i n T a b l e I I I below. B. THE ECONOMY OF THE PARAIBA RIVER BASIN - SECTOR PAULISTA The economic h i s t o r y of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n s t a r t e d i n t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y w i t h t h e s p r e a d of c o f f e e c u l t i v a t i o n . E a r l i e r s e t t l e m e n t s i n t h e upper v a l l e y had r e s u l t e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of s m a l l c r a f t t e x t i l e and o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s i n s m a l l 17 T a b l e I I I - Minimum F l o w s f o r the P a r a i b a R i v e r * POINTS ^ < m 3 / s > P o i n t 6 ( F r e g u e s i a da E s c a d a ) P o i n t 9c (Sao J o s e dos Campos) P o i n t 16 ( C a c a p a v a ) P o i n t 19 (Tremembe) P o i n t 21 (Pindamonhangaba) P o i n t 25 ( P u t i n s ) P o i n t 36 ( C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a ) P o i n t 42 ( Q u e l u z ) * C o n s i d e r i n g Q = 4 0 m 3 / s a t Santa B r a n c a Dam and Q = 10m 3Is a t J a g u a r i Dam S o u r c e : C E T E S B . Q u a l i d a d e das Aguas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l , p . l 4 2 . 2 43 .4 6 0 . 3 61 .5 63 .3 64 .8 7 0 . 5 76 .3 18 v i l l a g e s s u c h as Sao J o s e dos Campos and T a u b a t e . 6 Today, t h e P a r a i b a V a l l e y i s t h e most i m p o r t a n t i n d u s t r i a l zone i n t h e S t a t e of Sao P a u l o a f t e r t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a of Sao P a u l o . 7 The e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a s t e e l m i l l , i n 1945, i n V o l t a Redonda, S t a t e o f R i o de J a n e i r o , by t h e f e d e r a l government i s t h e landmark i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e v a l l e y . T h i s r e s u l t e d i n t h e e x p a n s i o n of t h e i n d u s t r i a l base o f t h e a r e a w i t h many f i r m s , s u c h as t h o s e making v e h i c l e p a r t s , t h a t s e r v e t h e i n d u s t r i e s of Sao P a u l o and R i o de J a n e i r o . 8 The e x p a n s i o n of t h e i n d u s t r i a l b ase a l s o o c u r r e d as a r e s p o n s e t o t h e t r e n d of o u t - m i g r a t i o n of f i r m s from G r e a t e r Sao P a u l o and t o f o r e i g n f i r m s t r y i n g t o l o c a t e near Sao P a u l o , b o t h i n s e a r c h of l a r g e r and c h e a p e r s i t e s . T h r e e o t h e r f a c t o r s have promoted t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of t h e v a l l e y : ( i ) p r o x i m i t y t o t h e two major n a t i o n a l m a r k e t s Sao P a u l o and R i o de J a n e i r o --; ( i i ) a good t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m ; and, ( i i i ) a v a i l a b i l i t y of r e l a t i v e l y a b undant water r e s o u r c e s . The i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of t h e P a r a i b a V a l l e y had major e f f e c t s on t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n and s i z e of t h e p o p u l a t i o n . From m a r k e d l y r u r a l i n 1940, t h e p o p u l a t i o n became p r e d o m i n a n t e l y u r b a n i n 1970, as shown i n T a b l e IV. B e c a use i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o c c u r r e d i n c i t i e s a l o n g t h e D u t r a Highway, between Sao P a u l o and R i o de J a n e i r o , t h e p o p u l a t i o n t e n d s t o be 6 John P. D i c k e n s o n . B r a z i l . wm. Dawson & Sons L t d , E n g l a n d , 1978, p.171. 7 J a n e t D. H e n s h a l l and R.P. Momsen J r . A Geography of  B r a z i l i a n Development , G. B e l l & Sons L t d , London, 1974, p. 177. 8 I b i d . T a b l e IV - P o p u l a t i o n Growth i n the P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n - S t a t e o f Sao P a u l o YEAR POPULATION GROWTH RATES FOR EVERY 10 YEARS GROWTH INDEX RELATIVELY TO 1940 t o t a l u r b a n (%) r u r a l (%) tota l (%) urban(%) r u r a l ( % ) t o t a l u r b a n r u r a l 1940 396013 1950 485081 1960 612477 1970 830421 150127 ( 3 7 . 9 ) 212496 (43 .8 ) 361240 ( 5 9 . 0 ) 607423 (73 .2 ) 245886 ( 6 2 . 1 ) - - - 100 272585 (56 .2 ) 22 .5 4 1 . 5 10 .9 122.5 251237 (41 .0 ) 26 .3 70 .0 - 7 . 8 154.7 222998 (26 .8 ) 35.6 68 .2 - 1 1 . 2 209.7 100 100 141.5 110.9 240 .6 2 .2 304 .6 90 .7 S o u r c e : C E T E S B . A l t e r n a t i v a s p a r a a P r e s e r v a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e da Agua do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l -Trecho P a u l i s t a . 1976, p .19 20 c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h a t a r e a , r a t h e r t h a n homogeneously t h r o u g h o u t t h e e n t i r e b a s i n . T a b l e V l i s t s t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n of t h e f o u r t e e n most p o p u l o u s c i t i e s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n ( S e c t o r P a u l i s t a ) as o f 1980, as w e l l as p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s f o r 1985 and 1990. Sao J o s e dos Campos, t h e major c i t y i n t h e b a s i n , had a l i t t l e more t h a n one q u a r t e r o f a m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s i n 1980, and i s e x p e c t e d t o m a i n t a i n i t s p o s i t i o n t h r o u g h 1990, when i t s p o p u l a t i o n i s p r o j e c t e d t o have grown by 94.88 p e r c e n t . In o t h e r words, the p o p u l a t i o n of Sao J o s e dos Campos i s e x p e c t e d t o a l m o s t d o u b l e i n t e n y e a r s . T a u b a t e and J a c a r e i a r e a l s o e x p e c t e d t o have t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e d by 61 . 1 9 p e r c e n t and 86.66 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y , from 1980 t o 1990. From the p o i n t o f view of t h i s t h e s i s , s u c h p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h means t h a t more water w i l l be needed f o r d r i n k i n g p u r p o s e s and more sewage w i l l be dumped i n t o t h e r i v e r , w i t h a c o n s e q u e n t d e t e r i o r a t i o n of w ater q u a l i t y . D e s p i t e t h e s i g n i f i c a n t i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e b a s i n , a g r i c u l t u r e i s s t i l l an i m p o r t a n t economic s e c t o r . Many i n d u s t r i e s , s u c h as m i l k and meat p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s and d i s t i l l e r i e s a r e l i n k e d t o t h e r e g i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r e . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t t h e P a r a i b a V a l l e y i s t h e major m i l k s o u r c e f o r Sao P a u l o and R i o de J a n e i r o . 9 G e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y t h r o u g h h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s i s a n o t h e r economic a c t i v i t y of some i m p o r t a n c e i n t h e b a s i n . The h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p l a n t s of P a r a i b u n a - P a r a i t i n g a , S a n t a 9 D i c k e n s o n , p.172. 21 Table V - Urban Population Projections f o r the 14 most populus  C i t i e s of the Paraiba River Basin - Sao Paulo URBAN POPULATION CITIES 1980 1985 1990 Sao Jose dos Campos 253310 353624 493663 Taubate 159312 202264 256796 Jacarei 90616 123802 169141 Guaratingueta 76446 90312 106694 Lorena 59696 73296 89993 Cruzeiro 58147 68130 79829 Pi ndamonhangaba 40521 48570 58217 Cacapava 36489 44416 54065 Aparecida do Norte 34650 42462 52035 Santa Izabel 16263 21590 28661 Cachoeira P a u l i s t a 16731 18994 21564 Tremembe 12009 15392 19729 Piquete 15057 16454 17980 Guararema 7679 10430 13271 Source: CEEIVAP. Projeto Gerencial 0003/79, Relatorio No.5, p.9 22 B r a n c a and J a g u a r i have a t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f 148MW. 1 0 The F u n i l p l a n t , j u s t e a s t of t h e b o r d e r , i n t h e S t a t e of R i o de J a n e i r o , has an i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y of 210MW. 1 1 The r e s e r v o i r s o f t h e s e h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p l a n t s c o n t r o l t h e f l o w s i n t h e r i v e r and, by d o i n g s o , o f f e r some p r o t e c t i o n t o t h e f l o o d p l a i n z o n e s a l o n g t h e r i v e r . The f o r e g o i n g i n f o r m a t i o n s u g g e s t s t h e economy of t h e b a s i n i s i n f l u e n c e d t o some e x t e n t by t h e water r e s o u r c e s of t h e r e g i o n . I n d u s t r i e s r e l y upon t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a s a s o u r c e o f i n d u s t r i a l water s u p p l y and as a p l a c e t o w h i c h t h e i r w a s t e s can be d i s c h a r g e d . C i t i e s , as s u p p l i e r s of l a b o u r , a l s o r e l y on t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a s a s o u r c e of d r i n k i n g water and as a p l a c e t o w h i c h t h e i r w a s t e s can be d i s c h a r g e d . H y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s g e n e r a t e power f o r t h e r e g i o n and f o r G r e a t e r Sao P a u l o . I n d u s t r i e s , t h e major s o u r c e of economic s u p p o r t i n t h e b a s i n , promote growth of t h e urba n p o p u l a t i o n and a r e dependent upon t h e l a b o u r p o o l p r o v i d e d by t h e l a t t e r . D e s p i t e t h i s i n t e r d e p e n d e n c y , t h e use of t h e waterway by i n d u s t r i e s and u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s g e n e r a t e s c o n f l i c t s among and between them. I n d u s t r i a l d i s c h a r g e s c o n t a i n o r g a n i c and i n o r g a n i c m a t e r i a l s w h i c h t e n d t o d e g r a d e water q u a l i t y f o r d r i n k i n g p u r p o s e s . C i t i e s d i s c h a r g e o r g a n i c w a s t e s c o n t a i n i n g p a t h o g e n s w h i c h a r e p o t e n t i a l l y d a n g e r o u s t o t h e h e a l t h of downstream c o m m u n i t i e s u s i n g t h e r i v e r as a d r i n k i n g water s o u r c e . Because t h e 1 0 CEEIVAP, P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 002/79 - R e l a t o r i o no.2, May 1980, p.8. 1 1 H e n s h a l l and Momsen, p.192. 23 p r o b l e m s of w a t e r q u a l i t y t e n d t o be a g g r a v a t e d by p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h , a major c o n c e r n o f p u b l i c p o l i c y i n t h e r e g i o n i s t o f i n d a way t o m a i n t a i n t h e e s t a b l i s h e d w a ter q u a l i t y l e v e l of t h e waterway. C. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS An u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f what c o n s t i t u t e s t h e e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l 'arrangement f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l and how i t i s o p e r a t e d i s o f p r i m a r y i m p o r t a n c e t o t h i s t h e s i s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e o b j e c t i v e of t h i s s e c t i o n i s t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m i n e f f e c t i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . THE EXISTING POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM In B r a z i l , p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i s a s t a t e i n i t i a t i v e , a l t h o u g h t h e f e d e r a l government may g e t i n v o l v e d where t h e s t a t e n e g l e c t s t h i s a c t i v i t y . The S t a t e of Sao P a u l o has a l w a y s p i o n e e r e d i n t h e f i e l d of p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , p e r h a p s as a r e s u l t of i t s heavy i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h o t h e r s t a t e s i n B r a z i l . The s t a t e p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l a g e n c y , CETESB, was c r e a t e d i n Ju n e , 1973, and p r e c e d e d t h e c r e a t i o n of t h e S p e c i a l S e c r e t a r i a t f o r t h e E n v i r o n m e n t (SEMA) w i t h i n t h e f e d e r a l M i n i s t r y of t h e I n t e r i o r , i n O c t o b e r , 1973. In May, 1976, i n ' a c c o r d w i t h f e d e r a l l e g i s l a t i o n on i n d u s t r i a l p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , t h e S t a t e of Sao P a u l o e n a c t e d Law no.997 w h i c h e s t a b l i s h e d t h e e x i s t i n g p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m . 24 T h i s law r e q u i r e s a l l waste d i s c h a r g e r s t o o b t a i n a p e r m i t f r o m CETESB. The a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g waste d i s c h a r g e r s a t t h e t i m e t h e law was e n a c t e d were r e q u e s t e d t o r e g i s t e r w i t h CETESB t o o b t a i n an o p e r a t i o n p e r m i t . CETESB was t h e n a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k o f e s t a b l i s h i n g s c h e d u l e s f o r c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e r e g u l a t i o n s . T h i s law a l s o e s t a b l i s h e d ambient and e m i s s i o n s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e r e c e i v i n g w a t e r s and e f f l u e n t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . In t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n , t h e p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l a c t i v i t y i s c a r r i e d o ut by CETESB, t h r o u g h i t s r e g i o n a l o f f i c e l o c a t e d i n T a u b a t e . ISSUANCE OF PERMITS A l l p o l l u t e r s t h a t w i s h t o l o c a t e or t o expand e x i s t i n g o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e b a s i n must s u b m i t an a p p l i c a t i o n f o r a l o c a t i o n p e r m i t . T h i s a p p l i c a t i o n must be a c c o m p a n i e d by a p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d y o f t h e a c t i v i t y w h i c h p r o v i d e s e x t e n s i v e i n f o r m a t i o n on what t h a t p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t y e n t a i l s . F o r example, i n t h e c a s e of an i n d u s t r y , t h e a p p l i c a n t must p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n on raw m a t e r i a l s , p r o c e s s and e q u i p m e n t , i n c l u d i n g p o l l u t i o n abatement equipment t o be u t i l i z e d by t h e i n d u s t r y . The a p p l i c a n t i s a l s o r e q u e s t e d t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n on s o u r c e s of water s u p p l y and e s t i m a t e s of d a i l y amounts of w a s t e w a t e r g e n e r a t e d by t h e i n d u s t r y . In l i g h t of t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , CETESB p r o c e e d s t o d e t e r m i n e whether ( i ) t h e e f f l u e n t of t h e p o l l u t i n g a c t i v i t y c o n f o r m s t o t h e e m i s s i o n s t a n d a r d s , and ( i i ) t h e d i s c h a r g e w i l l not c a u s e 25 t h e r e c e i v i n g water t o v i o l a t e t h e ambient s t a n d a r d s . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s u s e d a s a b a s i s f o r i s s u i n g a p e r m i t . I f t h e a p p l i c a n t i s not awarded a p e r m i t he may want t o l o o k f o r a new s i t e or p r o p o s e a h i g h e r l e v e l of waste t r e a t m e n t , i f t h i s l a t t e r o p t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e . B e f o r e s t a r t i n g o p e r a t i o n s , t h e a p p l i c a n t has t o o b t a i n an o p e r a t i n g p e r m i t w h i c h i s i s s u e d upon s i t e i n s p e c t i o n . T h i s i n s p e c t i o n i s done i n o r d e r t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e c o n d i t i o n s e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e l o c a t i o n p e r m i t were met. Where p o l l u t i o n abatement equipment i s i n s t a l l e d , a t e m p o r a r y o p e r a t i n g p e r m i t i s i s s u e d i n o r d e r t o c h e c k waste t r e a t m e n t e f i c i e n c y and v e r i f y t h a t p r o j e c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a r e b e i n g met. I t i s n o t e w o r t h y t h a t CETESB i s h e l p e d by s e v e r a l government a g e n c i e s , i n c l u d i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , i n t h e e n f o r c e m e n t of l o c a t i o n and o p e r a t i o n p e r m i t s . F o r example, t h e s t a t e company f o r e l e c t r i c a l power w i l l n o t hook up an i n d u s t r y t o i t s power l i n e s i f t h a t i n d u s t r y d o e s n o t have a p e r m i t i s s u e d by CETESB. MONITORING AND ENFORCEMENT M o n i t o r i n g t o che c k c o m p l i a n c e w i t h e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s i s done s p o r a d i c a l l y by CETESB p e r s o n n e l , a l t h o u g h v i o l a t i o n s c a n be r e p o r t e d by any p e r s o n . The n o r m a l p r o c e d u r e s f o r m o n i t o r i n g a r e : 1. samples of t h e e f f l u e n t a r e c o l l e c t e d ; 2. t h e samples a r e t e s t e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e " S t a n d a r d 26 Methods for Examination of Water and Wastewater" in the laboratories of the regional o f f i c e ; 3. i f the tests indicate that the standards were violated, one of the three following penalties i s imposed on the v i o l a t o r : (i) advertence; ( i i ) f i n e ; or ( i i i ) shutdown. The advertence penalty consists of a n o t i f i c a t i o n which indicates the effluent did not conform to the emission standards and that the discharger i s expected to report to CETESB within a certain period of time to explain the fact and make commitments on active measures to solve the problem. Usually, t h i s penalty is imposed when the v i o l a t i o n occurs for the f i r s t time, regardless of the intensity. An advertence penalty can also be issued on other occasions, i f CETESB considers the v i o l a t i o n to be of low int e n s i t y . A d a i l y fine i s imposed on the viola t o r i f , after the expiration of the stipulated time, the effluent s t i l l does not conform to the standards. In thi s case, monitoring i s done on a daily basis while the fine i s being applied. The vio l a t o r can avoid a dai l y fine by applying for an extension of the previously stipulated time for improving effluent q u a l i t y . If a serious v i o l a t i o n occurs, a simple fine i s applied after the vio l a t o r has been given an advertence penalty. The d e f i n i t i o n of what constitutes a serious v i o l a t i o n i s not e x p l i c i t and, therefore, i t i s up to CETESB to make this d i s t i n c t i o n on an individual basis. It i s noteworthy that the revenues generated by the application of fines do not become CETESB funds, but are 27 a l l o t t e d t o t h e s t a t e Department of Water and E l e c t r i c a l E n e r g y (DAEE). T h e r e f o r e , CETESB does n o t b e n e f i t f r o m t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of f i n e s . CETESB r e v e n u e s come from: ( i ) t e c h n i c a l s e r v i c e s t h a t a r e s o l d t o p u b l i c and p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n s ; ( i i ) money t r a n s f e r s from t h e s t a t e government; and, ( i i i ) p e r m i t f e e s . I t i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t m u n i c i p a l sewage e f f l u e n t s have n e v e r been m o n i t o r e d and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s have n e v e r been g i v e n any p e n a l t y . T h i s i s so b e c a u s e t h e s t a t e government does not want t o g e t i n v o l v e d i n a b a t t l e t h a t w o u l d have d i s a s t r o u s p o l i t i c a l c o n s e q u e n c e s . T h i s b e h a v i o u r has c a u s e d many i n d u s t r i e s t o r e g a r d t h e s y s t e m as not b e i n g f a i r , s i n c e p o l l u t e r s ( m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s ) a r e not t r e a t e d e q u a l l y . W h i l e t h e a d v e r t e n c e and f i n e p e n a l t i e s a r e a p p l i e d by t h e head of t h e r e g i o n a l o f f i c e , shutdown of p o l l u t i n g a c t i v i t i e s i s a p r e r o g a t i v e of t h e s t a t e S e c r e t a r y of Works and E n v i r o n m e n t , f o l l o w i n g a shutdown p r o p o s a l from t h e b o a r d of d i r e c t o r s of CETESB. The a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s p e n a l t y i s c o n s t r a i n e d by a f e d e r a l d e c r e e w h i c h e n u m e r a t e s a s e r i e s of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s t h a t a r e o f n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t and, t h e r e f o r e , c an o n l y be sh u t down by p r e s i d e n t i a l o r d e r . I t i s n o t e w o r t h y t h a t t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h i s f e d e r a l d e c r e e i s so b r o a d t h a t o n l y a few i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s c a n be sh u t down by t h e S e c r e t a r y of Works and E n v i r o n m e n t . Shutdown of s m a l l i n d u s t r i e s w hich d i d not comply w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g r e g u l a t i o n has o c c u r r e d i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . A l t h o u g h shutdowns imposed by t h e s e c r e t a r y c an be o v e r r u l e d by 28 p r e s i d e n t i a l o r d e r , t h i s has not happened i n t h o s e c a s e s . 29 I I I . THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT  PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE PARAIBA DO SUL RIVER BASIN In t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e water q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d and an a n a l y s i s o f t h e c o n s t r a i n t s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n o f t h o s e p r o b l e m s w i l l be examined. I t w i l l a l s o r e v i e w t h e p r o b l e m of u s i n g p h y s i c a l and c h e m i c a l p a r a m e t e r s a s i n d i c a t o r s of water q u a l i t y and d i s c u s s t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f a model f o r p r e d i c t i n g w a ter q u a l i t y a s c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e s c h a n g e . A. INDICATORS OF QUALITY Water q u a l i t y i s u s u a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p a r a m e t e r s w h i c h i n d i c a t e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of v a r i o u s c h e m i c a l s u b s t a n c e s o r compounds i n t h e w a t e r . W h i l e more e n c o m p a s s i n g c o n c e p t s of water q u a l i t y have been d e v e l o p e d 1 2 , t h i s s t u d y w i l l use c e r t a i n p a r a m e t e r s as i n d i c a t o r s of q u a l i t y . The major r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s t h a t any a n a l y s i s o f water q u a l i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a ca n o n l y be u n d e r t a k e n by u s i n g a v a i l a b l e d a t a g a t h e r e d by CETESB o v e r t h e y e a r s and t h e s e d a t a a r e ba s e d on c h e m i c a l and p h y s i c a l p a r a m e t e r s . However, d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t c h e m i c a l and p h y s i c a l p a r a m e t e r s w i l l be us e d f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s of water q u a l i t y management p r o b l e m s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e P a r a i b a , I do not i n t e n d t o im p l y t h a t t h o s e p a r a m e t e r s p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o d e f i n e , i n a c o m p r e h e n s i v e f a s h i o n , t h e 1 2 See, f o r example, t h e G r e a t L a k e s S c i e n c e A d v i s o r y B o a r d , "The E c o s y s t e m A p p r o a c h . " 30 r e l a t i o n s h i p between man's a c t i v i t i e s on l a n d and t h e i r i m p a c t s on t h e a q u a t i c e c o s y s t e m . N e v e r t h e l e s s , d a t a on s e l e c t e d p a r a m e t e r s p r o v i d e a p r a c t i c a l b a s i s f o r i n i t i a t i n g a c t i o n s t o i mprove water q u a l i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . A q u i t e e x t e n s i v e l i s t of c h e m i c a l and p h y s i c a l p a r a m e t e r s a r e m o n i t o r e d by CETESB on a r e g u l a r b a s i s . T h e s e p a r a m e t e r s r a n g e from water t e m p e r a t u r e t o c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of heavy m e t a l s i n t h e r i v e r w a t e r s . However, t h i s s t u d y w i l l f o c u s on t h o s e p a r a m e t e r s w h i c h have been f o u n d t o v i o l a t e t h e a m b i e n t s t a n d a r d s a d o p t e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r (CEEIVAP, P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0002/79 - R e l a t o r i o no. 1, v o l . 2 and R e l a t o r i o n o . 2 ) , namely t h e s t a n d a r d s f o r c o l i f o r m l e v e l and d i s s o l v e d o x y g e n . D i s s o l v e d Oxygen (D.O.) And B i o c h e m i c a l Oxygen Demand (BOD) B i o c h e m i c a l oxygen demand i s e x p r e s s e d i n k i l o g r a m s o f oxygen p e r l i t e r u t i l i z e d by t h e o r g a n i c m a t e r i a l s i n t h e p r o c e s s of d e c a y o v e r a f i v e - d a y p e r i o d . D i s s o l v e d oxygen i s e x p r e s s e d i n m i l l i g r a m s of oxygen p e r l i t e r and r e p r e s e n t s t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of oxygen i n t h e w a t e r . T h e s e p a r a m e t e r s a r e i n t e r r e l a t e d inasmuch as t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f oxygen i n t h e water w i l l be a f u n c t i o n of t h e amount of d e c a y i n g o r g a n i c m a t e r i a l s d i s c h a r g e d i n t o t h e waterway; however, D.O. i s a l s o a f u n c t i o n of t e m p e r a t u r e and a e r a t i o n of t h e waterway. I f d i s s o l v e d oxygen d r o p s t o z e r o , o f f e n s i v e o d o r s w i l l r e s u l t , due t o a n a e r o b i c c o n d i t i o n s . D i s s o l v e d oxygen o f t h r e e or f o u r m i l i g r a m s p e r l i t e r a r e c o n s i d e r e d minimum l e v e l s f o r t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n of a q u a t i c l i f e . W a t e r s c o n t a i n i n g D.O. l e v e l s 31 below two m i l i g r a m s p e r l i t e r a r e c o n s i d e r e d n o t s u i t a b l e f o r d r i n k i n g p u r p o s e s , i f t r e a t e d by c o n v e n t i o n a l t e c h n o l o g y . In t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , t h e major s o u r c e s o f d e c a y i n g m a t e r i a l s a r e t h e i n d u s t r i a l and m u n i c i p a l waste l o a d i n g s . The l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of t h e o r g a n i c waste l o a d s from i n d u s t r i a l s o u r c e s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h numerous f o o d p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s , p u l p and p a p e r m i l l s , and c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r i e s w h i c h d e a l w i t h o r g a n i c compounds. C o l i f o r m B a c t e r i a The c o l i f o r m c o u n t i s u s e d as an i n d i c a t o r of d i s e a s e -c a u s i n g b a c t e r i a . CETESB m o n i t o r s two of t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s : t h e t o t a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t and t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t . W h i l e t h e t o t a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t g i v e s t h e most p r o b a b l e number (MPN) of a l l k i n d s of c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a p e r one h u n d r e d m i l l i l i t e r s , t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t g i v e s t h e MPN of c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a o r i g i n a t i n g from human and a n i m a l e x c r e m e n t . Because d i s e a s e -c a u s i n g b a c t e r i a a r e most l i k e l y t o be p r e s e n t i n human sewage, t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t i s o f much i m p o r t a n c e . In t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n , t h e s c h i s t o s o m e i s one of t h e b a c t e r i a t h a t a r e f o u n d i n human sewage. T h e s e b a c t e r i a c a u s e a d i s e a s e c a l l e d s c h i s t o s o m i a s i s or b i l h a r z i a , as i t i s most commonly known. They c a n e n t e r man t h r o u g h e i t h e r t h e s k i n o r mucous membranes by d i r e c t c o n t a c t , or by i n g e s t i o n o f c o n t a m i n a t e d w a t e r . T h i s d i s e a s e c an be l e t h a l t o man. Then, c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t t h e P a r a i b a r e c e i v e s q u i t e s i g n i f i c a n t l o a d s of human sewage and, a t t h e same t i m e , i s u s e d as a s o u r c e of d r i n k i n g w ater f o r many ur b a n c o m m u n i t i e s , t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t assumes a v e r y 32 i m p o r t a n t p l a c e among t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f water q u a l i t y . D i s s o l v e d oxygen and f e c a l c o l i f o r m s a p p e a r t o be t h e two i n d i c a t o r s w i t h w h i c h water q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a r e a s s o c i a t e d . P h e n o l s w h i c h a r e n o n - t o x i c s u b s t a n c e s but w h i c h g i v e u n p l e a s a n t t a s t e t o t h e water a r e a l s o f o u n d t o v i o l a t e t h e s t a n d a r d e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a . A l t h o u g h p h e n o l s may o r i g i n a t e from many s o u r c e s ( i n c l u d i n g p u l p and p a p e r m i l l s ) , t h e major s o u r c e i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n i s d o m e s t i c sewage (CEEIVAP, P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0002/79 - R e l a t o r i o no.1, v o l . 2 and R e l a t o r i o n o . 2 ) . S i n c e any t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n t o t h e D.O. p r o b l e m from d o m e s t i c sewage would r e s u l t i n t h e r e m o v a l of p h e n o l s , t h i s p a r a m e t e r does not need t o be t r e a t e d s e p a r a t e l y . In summary, a water q u a l i t y management program f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n must be c o n c e r n e d p r i m a r i l y w i t h t h e c o n t r o l of d i s e a s e - c a u s i n g b a c t e r i a and m a i n t e n a n c e of d i s s o l v e d oxygen l e v e l s . As p r e v i o u s l y s t a t e d , t h e ambient s t a n d a r d s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e s e two p a r a m e t e r s a r e a c c e p t a b l e and, t h e r e f o r e , an i m p o r t a n t t a s k of t h i s s t u d y i s t o d e t e r m i n e how t h e s e s t a n d a r d s m ight be a t t a i n e d , what measures would be r e q u i r e d and what t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t s would be. B. DISSOLVED OXYGEN PREDICTION MODELS Data c o l l e c t e d by CETESB on water q u a l i t y c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r show t h a t t h e r e a c h of t h e r i v e r most i n need of a t t e n t i o n e x t e n d s from Guararema t o Q u e l u z . In t h i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 0 0 - k i l o m e t e r s t r e t c h , a v a i l a b l e e v i d e n c e 33 i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e waterway t e n d s t o be d e g r a d e d i n a number of ways. F i r s t of a l l , t h e measures of d i s s o l v e d oxygen b a s e d upon r e c o r d s a c c u m u l a t e d s i n c e 1970 show t h a t l e v e l s of d i s s o l v e d oxygen below 4mg/l have been o b s e r v e d a t e v e r y m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t a l o n g t h e r i v e r . The m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t a t t h e water i n t a k e o f Sao J o s e dos Campos r e g i s t e r e d D.O. l e v e l s as low as z e r o . F i g u r e 2 c h a r t s oxygen l e v e l s o v e r t h i s p o r t i o n of t h e main stem of t h e r i v e r from k i l o m e t e r z e r o t o 300 b a s e d upon r e c o r d s t a k e n between 1970 and 1977. The v e r t i c a l b a r s show t h e range of D.O. l e v e l s r e c o r d e d a t e a c h of t h e m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t s . The c u r v e r e p r e s e n t s a l i n e t h a t c o n t a i n s t h e mean v a l u e s of e s t i m a t e d D.O. l e v e l s f o r d i f f e r e n t f l o w c o n d i t i o n s a t e a c h o f t h e m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t s . T h i s c u r v e shows t h a t t h e m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t a t Sao J o s e dos Campos i s t h e c r i t i c a l one a s f a r as D.O. l e v e l s a r e c o n c e r n e d . A n o t h e r i n d i c a t i o n o f water c o n d i t i o n s i n t h i s p o r t i o n of t h e r i v e r comes from d a t a on f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t s . T a b l e VI shows t h e m o n t h l y r e c o r d s , from 1978 t o 1980, o f t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t f o r t h r e e m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t s a l o n g t h e same r e a c h of t h e r i v e r . O n l y t h r e e r e c o r d s , one a t A p a r e c i d a do N o r t e and two a t Q u e l u z , do not e x c e e d t h e s t r e a m s t a n d a r d f o r t h i s p a r a m e t e r . F u r t h e r d a t a a n a l y s i s o f f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t s p r o v i d e d by a CETESB's r e p o r t 1 3 on t h e water q u a l i t y of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r shows t h a t f o r a l l m o n i t o r i n g p o i n t s t h e mean v a l u e s f o r t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t s r e c o r d e d between 1971 and 1 3 CETESB. Q u a l i d a d e das Aguas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l , Sao P a u l o , J a n . 1 9 8 0 . FIG. 2 - CURVE OF DISSOLVED OXYGEN FOR LOW FLOW PERIODS (1971-77) WITH MAJOR DISCHARGES Source: CETESB-DAEE (1980) Q u a l i d a d e das Aguas do Rio P a r a i b a do S u l , F i g . 6.27, p.5*i. Table VI - MONTHLY RECORDS OF FECAL COLIFORM COUNTS FOR 1978, 1979, and 1980 (10 3 MPN/100 ml) POINT : 00SP61PA2098 POINT: 00SP61PA2310 POINT: OOSP61PA2490 Sao Jose dos Campos Aparecida do Norte Queluz 1978 1979 1980 1978 1979 1980 1978 1979 1980 Jan. 3.3 3.3 3.3 49.0 7.9 14.0 2.3 49.0 13.0 Feb. 1.7 33.0 3.3 4.9 4.9 13.0 1.9 11.0 3.3 Mar. 2.8 1.3 7.9 110.0 7.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 11.0 Apr. 2.3 24.0 110.0 7.9 11.0 2.3 7.9 79.0 13.0 May 4.9 79.0 350.0 7.9 17.0 7.9 1.4 23.0 7.9 Jun. 13.0 3.3 350.0 4.9 0.79* 18.0 1.7 4.9 4.6 J u l . 23.0 49.0 2.8 3.3 7.9 3.3 4.9 4.9 13.0 Aug. 33.0 17.0 79.0 3.3 23.0 4.9 0.94* 3.3 3.3 Sep. 79.0 240.0 540.0 4.9 11.0 7.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 Oct. 1.1 33.0 17.0 4.6 11.0 23.0 3.3 3.3 1.1 Nov. 11.0 33.0 160.0 7.0 4.9 1.1 17.0 13.0 0.23* Dec. 33.0 140.0 3.3 1.1 2.2 79.0 7.0 13.0 49.0 *Records that do not exceed the ambient standard (1.0 x 10 3 MPN/100 ml) Source: CETESB (1978, 1979, 1980) - Qualidade das Aguas Interlores do Estado de Sao Paulo 36 1977 a r e w e l l above t h e s t r e a m s t a n d a r d . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e w a t e r s o f t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r a r e p o t e n t i a l l y d a n g e r o u s t o p u b l i c h e a l t h . T a b l e V I I shows t h e major o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e s from i n d u s t r i e s t o t h e r i v e r i n t h i s p o r t i o n f r o m r i v e r k i l o m e t e r 300 down t o r i v e r k i l o m e t e r z e r o r e p o r t e d by CETESB i n 1980. T a b l e V I I I shows t h e o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e s from 15 u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s t o t h e r i v d r i n t h e same s e c t i o n , r e p o r t e d by SABESP i n 1979. G i v e n t h a t t h e o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e s from t h e i n d u s t r i e s have n o t c h a n g e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y from 1979 t o 1980, t h e two t a b l e s can be u s e d c o m p a r a t i v e l y . Numerous measures can be t a k e n t o b r i n g D.O. l e v e l s up t o a r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d . T h e s e measures can be: r e d u c t i o n i n waste l o a d i n g s , i n s t a l l a t i o n o f m e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n c e r t a i n p o i n t s of t h e r i v e r , i n c r e a s e i n f l o w t h r o u g h r e l e a s e s from r e s e r v o i r s t o r a g e , o r a c o m b i n a t i o n of t h e s e . In t h e c a s e of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , however, t h e p r o b l e m of f e c a l c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a must a l s o be a d d r e s s e d by a water q u a l i t y management program. C e r t a i n m e a s u r e s , s u c h as o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d r e d u c t i o n t h r o u g h r e t e n t i o n or s t a b i l i z a t i o n ponds, can a d d r e s s b o t h p r o b l e m s , due t o t h e b a c t e r i a l d i e - o f f e f f e c t . C h l o r i n a t i o n of p r i m a r y and s e c o n d a r y t r e a t m e n t s a r e a l t e r n a t i v e methods t o s t a b i l i z a t i o n p onds. However, s t a b i l i z a t i o n ponds have p r o v e d t o have a d v a n t a g e s o v e r c o n v e n t i o n a l t r e a t m e n t methods i n terms of c o s t and e a s y m a i n t e n a n c e (Gloy'na e t a l . , 1976:301). Thus, t h e r e i s t h e need t o know how t h e D.O. p r o b l e m might be s o l v e d e c o n o m i c a l l y and, t h e n , d e t e r m i n e whether t h i s s o l u t i o n would be T a b l e V I I - L i s t o f I n d u s t r i e s R e s p o n s i b l e f o r 85% o f the I n d u s t r i a l P o t e n t i a l O r g a n i c L o a d i n the P a r a i b o R i v e r B a s i n - Sao P a u l o (1980) I n d u s t r i e s L o c a t i o n Type O r g a n i c Load (k .g /B0D/day) BOD p o t e n t i a l d i s c h a r g e d removal Z I n d u s t r i a s de P a p e l Simao S . A . J a c a r e i p u l p / p a p e r 19092 12384 35 C i c e r o Prado C e l u l o s e e P a p e l S . A Pindamonhangaba p u l p / p a p e r 6825 1785 74 F o r d B r a s i l S / A Taubate m e c h a n i c a l 4148 55 98 .7 Rhodia S / A S. Jose Campos c h e m i c a l 3805 1862 51 I n q u i b r a s J a c a r e i c h e m i c a l 3730 3730 0 H e n k e l do B r a s i l J a c a r e i c h e m i c a l 3520 139 96 B a s f B r a s i l e i r a S /A G u a r a t i n g u e ta c h e m i c a l 2885 1914 34 F a b r i c a de P a p e l N . S . A p a r e c i d a S /A A p a r e c i d a p u l p / p a p e r 1962 898 55 C i a . B r a s i l e i r a de P r o d u t o s A l i m . N e s t l e Cacapava f o o d p r o c . 1911 191 90 LAVALPA J a c a r e i t e x t i l e 1570 785 50 D e s t i l a r i a V a l p a r a i b a S / A G u a r a t i n g u e t a d e s t i l l a r y 1314 0 100 G e n e r a l Motors do B r a s i l S / A S. Jose Campos m e c h a n i c a l 1080 54 95 P e t r o l e o B r a s i l e i r o S / A REVAP S . J o s e Campos c h e m i c a l 1008 144 85 .7 J o h n s o n & Johnson S / A S. Jose Campos c h e m i c a l 867 66 92 .4 I n d u s t r i a s Monsanto S / A S. J o s e Campos c h e m i c a l 768 58 92 .5 I n d u s t r i a s Quimicas Taubate S / A Taubate c h e m i c a l 747 0 100 F r i g o r i f i c o Cleumar S / A C r u z e i r o f o o d p r o c . 724 724 0 Volgswagen do B r a s i l S / A Taubate m e c h a n i c a l 700 56 92 C o o p . C e n t r a l de L a t i c . d o E s t . d e S . P a u l o G u a r a t i n g u e t a d a i r y p r o c . 670 185 72 .4 Ibrape E l e t r o n i c a S / A S. Jose Campos e l e c t r o n i c 659 82 8 7 . 5 A b a t e d o u r a Tretnerabe L t d a . Tremembe food p r o c . 511 0 100 Mecrom L t d a . S. Jose Campos food p r o c 483 338 30 Embraer S / A S . Jose Campos m e c h a n i c a l 464 16 96 .5 G r a n j a I t a m b i Soc . C i v i l L t d a . S. Jose Campos food p r o c . 452 17 96 .2 C i a . F l u m i n e n s e de K e f r i g e r a n t e s Pindamonhangaba b e v e r a g e s 392 39 90 G e r a l d o B . R a n g e l G u a r a t i n g u e t a d e s t i l l a r y 368 0 100 F r i g o v a l p a S. J o s e Campos f o o d p r o c . 349 62 82 .2 J o s e L u i s C a l t a b i a n o G u a r a t i n g u e t a d e s t i l l a r y 343 0 100 COPA - Companhia de P a p e l s C r u z e i r o paper 330 60 82 Coop. L a t i c Sao Jose dos Campos L t d a . S. Jose Campos d a i r y p r o c . 310 31 90 A n t e n o r d a S i l v a Andrade P i ndamonhangaba d e s t i l l a r y 294 0 100 R h o d i a S / A J a c a r e i t e x t i l e 275 163 41 S o u r c e : CEEIVAP - P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0001/79 , R e l a t o r i o , N o . l , P l a t e 2 . V , p . 2 . 2 4 T a b l e V I I I - P o t e n t i a l and D i s c h a r g e d BOD l o a d s f rom U r b a n Communi t i e s (1979) M u n i c i p a l Urban P o p u l a t i o n BOD Loads (kg BOD/day) T o t a l S e r v i c e d P o t e n t i a l D i s c h a r g e d Guararema 5800 4460 240 240 J a c a r e i 88000 65000 3500 3500 Sao J o s e dos Campos 230000 126500 6830 5910 Cacapava 44000 26800 1450 220 T a u b a t e 145000 91000 4900 4900 Tremembe 11000 6600 360 360 Pindamonhangaba 45000 34600 1900 280 R o s e i r a 2200 2050 110 20 A p a r e c i d a do N o r t e 35000 19800 1070 1070 G u a r a t i n g u e t a . 90000 54600 2900 2900 L o r e n a 55000 44000 2400 360 C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a 18000 10080 550 550 C r u z e i r o 57000 49000 2600 2600 L a v r i n h a s 600 260 10 10 Q u e l u z 5000 4500 240 240 S o u r c e : CEEIVAP - P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0001/79 - R e l a t o r i o N o . l , P l a t e s 2 . V I I I and 2 . I X 39 a d e q u a t e t o a d d r e s s t h e f e c a l c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a p r o b l e m o r whether o t h e r measures would be n e c e s s a r y . D i s s o l v e d oxygen p r e d i c t i o n m o d e ls a r e t h e t e c h n i c a l t o o l t h a t makes i t p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e t h e n e c e s s a r y measures t o s o l v e t h e D.O. p r o b l e m . T h e s e models can show how much r e d u c t i o n of o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d , or i n c r e a s e i n f l o w , o r m e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n , o r b o t h would be n e c e s s a r y t o m a i n t a i n a c e r t a i n l e v e l o f D.O. under s p e c i f i e d c o n d i t i o n s . T h i s s t u d y w i l l make use of t h e r e s u l t s of t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e model MAPS t o t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , i n 1976. The r e s u l t s a r e r e p o r t e d by CETESB i n " A l t e r n a t i v a s p a r a a P r e s e r v a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e das Aguas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l - T r e c h o P a u l i s t a " ( A l t e r n a t i v e s f o r P r e s e r v a t i o n of Water Q u a l i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a do S u l R i v e r -S e c t o r P a u l i s t a ) . The model MAPS i s a c o m b i n a t i o n of s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s f o r t h e a n a l y s i s of water q u a l i t y i n a w a t e r b o d y . The s t u d y done by CETESB shows t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e d i s s o l v e d oxygen s i m u l a t i o n model w h i c h i s b a s e d on t h e S t r e e t e r - P h e l p s -Camp e q u a t i o n s . 1 " The c r i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e p a r a m e t e r of d i s s o l v e d oxygen o c c u r s i n t h e summer when t e m p e r a t u r e s a r e h i g h and f l o w s c an be r e d u c e d t o 40m 3/s and I0m 3/s a t the S a n t a B r a n c a Dam and t h e J a g u a r i Dam, r e s p e c t i v e l y . Low l e v e l s o f d i s s o l v e d oxygen i n t h e w a t e r s r e l e a s e d by t h e J a g u a r i Dam, due t o s t r a t i f i c a t i o n i n t h e r e s e r v o i r , a r e a n o t h e r f a c t o r t h a t 1 * Th e s e e q u a t i o n s c a l c u l a t e t h e D.O. d e f i c i t t h a t a c e r t a i n BOD l o a d c a u s e s t o a r i v e r under s p e c i f i e d c o n d i t i o n s of f l o w and t e m p e r a t u r e . 40 w o r s e n s t h e c r i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s o f f l o w and t e m p e r a t u r e . G i v e n t h a t t h e w a t e r s of t h e J a g u a r i Dam have e x p e r i e n c e d l e v e l s of D.O. as low as z e r o , t h i s l e v e l was t a k e n as a c r i t i c a l v a l u e . T a k i n g a l l t h e s e - f a c t o r s i n t o a c c o u n t , t h e model p r o d u c e d a p r e d i c t i o n of D.O. l e v e l s f o r 1980, w h i c h i s p r e s e n t e d i n f i g u r e 3. U s i n g t h e same s i m u l a t i o n model, i t was d e t e r m i n e d t h a t , i n o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n t h e D.O. l e v e l above t h e s t r e a m s t a n d a r d of 5mg/l a l o n g t h e P a r a i b a , t h e BOD l o a d would have t o be c u r t a i l e d by: ( i ) 50% a t S i m a o C p u l p and p a p e r i n d u s t r y ) ; ( i i ) 90% a t t h e c i t y of Sao J o s e dos Campos; and, ( i i i ) 40% a t a l l o t h e r u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s a l o n g t h e P a r a i b a . T h i s would r e s u l t i n 49 t o n n e s of BOD as t h e t o t a l w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e d i n t o t h e r i v e r o f w h i c h 22 t o n n e s would be c o n t r i b u t e d by c i t i e s and 27 t o n n e s by i n d u s t r i e s . The p r e d i c t e d D.O. c u r v e f o r t h i s c u r t a i l m e n t scheme i s shown i n f i g u r e 4. O t h e r c u r t a i l m e n t schemes were a l s o s i m u l a t e d f o r d i f f e r e n t f l o w c o n d i t i o n s , w h i c h c o u l d be a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h i n c r e a s e s i n t h e amount o f water r e l e a s e d by t h e two r e s e r v o i r s m e n t i o n e d a b o v e . In f e b r u a r y 1977, b a s e d on t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of MAPS and on a n o t h e r s t u d y done by DAEE/SONDOTECNICA 1 5 ,which compares t h e c o s t s o f f l o w a u g m e n t a t i o n w i t h t h o s e o f e f f l u e n t t r e a t m e n t f o r d i f f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s of f l o w and BOD l o a d r e d u c t i o n , t h e D e p a r t a m e n t o N a c i o n a l de Aguas e E n e r g i a E l e t r i c a (DNAEE) e s t a b l i s h e d t h e minimum f l o w s of 40m 3/s a t t h e S a n t a B r a n c a Dam and I0m 3/s a t t h e J a g u a r i Dam. T h e r e f o r e , t h e f o r e g o i n g 1 5 DAEE/SONDOTECNICA. E s t u d o H i d r o l o g i c o do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l - S e t o r P a u l i s t a ,1976. D.O. (mg/f) SIMAO (IND.) JAGUARI SAO JOSE RIVER DOS CAMPOS TAUBATE CICERO PRADO (IND.) 10.0 -\ 8.0 H 6.0 H 5.0-4.0 H 2.0 H (90% cutback in Jacarei. S.J. dos Campos + Taubate '50% cutback at Simao .40% cutback in all cities '50% cutback at Simao situation 1980 without treatment 255 (1) 215 (2) 209 (3) 180 (4) 122 (5) 100 (6) 95 (7) 1 (8) RIVER KM FIG. 3 - Curves of Dissolved Oxygen Obtained with Application of the MAPS Simulation Model Source: CETESB. Alternativas para a Preservacao da Qualidade das Aquas do Rio Paraiba do Sul - Trecho Paulista, 1976, p. 52. D.O. (mg/f) 10.0 SIMAC (INO.) JAGUARI SAOJOSE RIVER DOS CAMPOS CICERO PRAOO (IND.) RIVER KM FIG. 4 - Dissolved Oxygen Simulation Curve for BOD Cutbacks of 90% at Sao Jose dos Campos, 50% at Simao, and 40% at all other cities. Source: CETESB. Alternativas para a Preservacao da Qualidade das Aquas do Rio Paraiba do Sul - Trecho Paulista, 1976, p. 73. 43 a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e BOD l o a d r e d u c t i o n scheme f o r 1980 i s a l e a s t - c o s t s y s t e m t o a c h i e v e t h e D.O. s t a n d a r d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , when c o s t s of f l o w a u g m e n t a t i o n and e f f l u e n t t r e a t m e n t a r e c o n s i d e r e d . A n o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e -- t h e m e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n o f t h e r i v e r m i g h t a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d , i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e whether t h e BOD l o a d c u r t a i l m e n t scheme m e n t i o n e d above i s i n d e e d a l e a s t -c o s t s y s t e m t o a c h i e v e t h e D.O. s t a n d a r d f o r t h e P a r a i b a . However, s i n c e BOD and f e c a l c o l i f o r m l e v e l s a r e i n t e r r e l a t e d i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r t h e d e s i g n of a l e a s t c o s t s y s t e m t h a t w i l l r e a l i z e t h e s t a n d a r d s f o r b o t h of t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s . The next s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r a d d r e s s e s t h i s p r o b l e m . C. CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES PRESENTED BY THE COLIFORM  BACTERIA PROBLEM TO A LEAST-COST SYSTEM TO ACHIEVE THE D.O.  STANDARD A r c e i v a l a ( 1 9 8 1 : 8 2 0 ) s t a t e s t h a t "raw sewage c o l i f o r m c o n c e n t r a t i o n s g e n e r a l l y a v e r a g e a r o u n d 10 s t o 10 9 c o l i f o r m s / 1 0 0 m l , and i f t h e y a r e t o be r e d u c e d , f o r i n s t a n c e , t o 1000 c o l i f o r m s / 1 0 0 m l , t h e c o l i f o r m r e m o v a l e f f i c i e n c i e s r e q u i r e d a r e on t h e o r d e r of 99.9 t o 99.999% and h i g h e r . " F o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , where t h e s t a n d a r d i s 5000 c o l i f o r m s / 1 0 0 m l and 1000 c o l i f o r m s / 1 0 0 m l f o r t h e t o t a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t and f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t r e s p e c t i v e l y , c o l i f o r m r e m o v a l • e f f i c i e n c i e s r e q u i r e d would a l s o be on t h e o r d e r of 99.9% and h i g h e r . Two a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t p r e s e n t s u c h c o l i f o r m r e m o v a l e f f i c i e n c y a r e : ( i ) c h l o r i n a t i o n of p r i m a r y e f f l u e n t , and ( i i ) s e c o n d a r y 44 t r e a t m e n t by s t a b i l i z a t i o n p onds. W h i l e c h l o r i n a t i o n of p r i m a r y e f f l u e n t w ould r e s u l t i n a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l s o f c o l i f o r m r e m o v a l a t t h e same t i m e t h a t 40% BOD r e m o v a l would be a c h i e v e d by p r i m a r y t r e a t m e n t o f t h e m u n i c i p a l sewage, t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e d o e s not compare f a v o u r a b l y i n terms of " a v e r a g e c o s t p e r c a p i t a " w i t h s e c o n d a r y t r e a t m e n t by s t a b i l i z a t i o n ponds ( s e e T a b l e I X ) . I n d e e d , A r c e i v a l a (1981:790) s a y s t h a t f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s 1 6 , due t o t h e i r h i g h c o l i f o r m r e m o v a l e f f i c i e n c y , may c o n s t i t u t e an e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o d e s i n f e c t i o n by c h l o r i n e i n warm c l i m a t e s . CETESB 1 7 a l s o a g r e e s t h a t t h e t r e a t m e n t of m u n i c i p a l sewage by f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s i s t h e b e s t t e c h n i c a l and economic a l t e r n a t i v e t o d e a l w i t h b o t h t h e c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a and t h e D.O. p r o b l e m s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . T h e r e f o r e , a l e a s t c o s t s y s t e m f o r a c h i e v i n g t h e s t a n d a r d f o r f e c a l c o l i f o r m and D.O. would i n v o l v e t h e use of f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s by a l l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . A ssuming 90% r e m o v a l of BOD t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s t e c h n o l o g y , a d i s c h a r g e of 3,687 t o n n e s by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , i n 1980, would r e s u l t i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h 22,119 t o n n e s i f o n l y 40% r e m o v a l were r e a l i z e d . In o t h e r words, as o f 1980, a l e a s t - c o s t s y s t e m would p e r m i t a d i s c h a r g e of 45 t o n n e s of BOD by o t h e r t h a n m u n i c i p a l d i s c h a r g e r s i n s t e a d o f 27 t o n n e s under t h e a s s u m p t i o n s s p e c i f i e d i n F i g u r e 4. T h e s e d i s c h a r g e s would, of c o u r s e , need t o be a p p r o p r i a t e l y d i s t r i b u t e d a l o n g t h e 1 6 F a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s a r e s t a b i l i z a t i o n ponds i n w h i c h b o t h a e r o b i c and a n a e r o b i c c o n d i t i o n s e x i s t 1 7 CETESB. A l t e r n a t i v a s p a r a a P r e s e r v a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e da Agua  do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l - T r e c h o P a u l i s t a , 1976, p.74. 45 T a b l e IX - P e r C a p i t a C o s t E s t i m a t e s f o r A l t e r n a t i v e Wastewater  Trea tment T e c h n o l o g i e s T r e a t m e n t T e c h n o l o g y BOD Removal A v e r a g e C o s t E f f i c i e n c y Per C a p i t a (US$) % A n a e r o b i c Lagoons 40 t o 70 0 .5 to 1.0 C o m b i n a t i o n o f A n a e r o b i c / A e r o b i c Lagoons 90 t o 95 1.5 t o 3 .0 F a c u l t a t i v e Lagoons 80 to 95 2 .0 to 3 .0 A e r a t e d A e r o b i c Lagoons 90 t o 95 2 .0 t o 4 .0 A e r a t i o n Pond 45 to 65 4 . 0 to 8 .0 C o n v e n t i o n a l P r i m a r y T r e a t m e n t 30 t o 40 5 .0 t o 10 .0 O x i d a t i o n D i t c h 90 to 95 8 .0 to 1 2 . 0 T r i c k l i n g F i l t e r s 80 t o 90 15 .0 t o 2 0 . 0 A c t i v a t e d S ludge 85 to 97 2 0 . 0 to 3 0 . 0 S o u r c e : C E T E S B , 1976. A l t e r n a t i v a s p a r a a P r e s e r v a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e das Aguas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l -T r e c h o P a u l i s t a , p .75 46 r i v e r i n a c c o r d w i t h t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t i e s o f t h e v a r i o u s s e c t i o n s . Such a d i s t r i b u t i o n c o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e S t r e e t e r - P h e l p s e q u a t i o n s . B e c a u se BOD r e m o v a l e f f i c i e n c i e s i n f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s a r e on t h e o r d e r of 80 t o 95%, t h e a d o p t i o n of t h e s e l a g o o n s t o t r e a t m u n i c i p a l sewage i n a l l u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s a l o n g t h e P a r a i b a would r e s u l t i n BOD l o a d r e d u c t i o n s w h i c h a r e g r e a t e r t h a n t h e r e q u i r e d r e d u c t i o n s as i n d i c a t e d by t h e D.O. s i m u l a t i o n model, w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of t h e one f o r Sao J o s e dos Campos. G i v e n t h i s s i t u a t i o n , i t seems u n n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r m e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n a s an a l t e r n a t i v e f o r a l e a s t - c o s t s y s t e m t o a c h i e v e t h e D.O. s t a n d a r d i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . M e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n may w a r r a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n a t some f u t u r e d a t e i f p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h r e s u l t i n d i s c h a r g e s t h a t e x c e e d t h e ambient s t a n d a r d s when f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s a r e u t i l i z e d by a l l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . In summary, t h e n , t h e l e a s t -c o s t s o l u t i o n t c t h e c o l i f o r m p r o b l e m r e d u c e s BOD d i s c h a r g e s t o a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l s a t a l l l o c a t i o n s and makes u n n e c e s s a r y t h e s e a r c h f o r a s e p a r a t e l e a s t - c o s t s y s t e m t o r e a l i z e d i s s o l v e d oxygen l e v e l s . G i v e n t h a t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h e s t a n d a r d s f o r b o t h t h e c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a and t h e D.O. p a r a m e t e r s depends on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r sewage t r e a t m e n t and t h a t t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h o s e t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s would f a l l s o l e l y on t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o l o o k more c l o s e l y a t t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f s u c h a s o l u t i o n . 47 D. ANALYSIS OF THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM OF SEWAGE DISCHARGE  FROM URBAN COMMUNITIES The s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m of sewage d i s c h a r g e from t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s i s most l i k e l y t o b e n e f i t i n d u s t r i a l d i s c h a r g e r s . As we have s e e n , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s t o t r e a t m u n i c i p a l sewage w i l l p e r m i t a r e d u c t i o n o f t h e BOD l o a d w h i c h i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e r e d u c t i o n i n d i c a t e d by t h e D.O. p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l . Thus, one c o u l d e x p e c t t h i s a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y t o be u s e d f o r an i n c r e a s e i n t h e o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e from i n d u s t r i a l s o u r c e s . The a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y c r e a t e d by a 90% r e d u c t i o n o f t h e BOD l o a d from m u n i c i p a l sewage d i s c h a r g e s c o u l d be a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d by u s i n g t h e S t r e e t e r - P h e l p s e q u a t i o n s . However, f o r t h e p u r p o s e of t h i s s t u d y o n l y a p p r o x i m a t e e s t i m a t e s a r e r e q u i r e d . The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y becomes a v a i l a b l e i f m u n i c i p a l sewage i s t r e a t e d t h r o u g h use of f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s . Rough f i g u r e s o f the a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y can be d e r i v e d by ( i ) c o n s i d e r i n g t h e BOD l o a d r e d u c t i o n o f 50% a t Simao, and 40% a t e v e r y u r b a n community w h i c h a r e e s t i m a t e d t o c a u s e t h e d i s s o l v e d oxygen l e v e l t o be 5mg/l a l o n g t h e e n t i r e r i v e r 1 8 ; and ( i i ) t a k i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e between the l o a d s t h a t would have been d i s c h a r g e d under t h i s s e t of measures and- t h e l o a d s t h a t a r e d i s c h a r g e d i f 90% of t h e BOD Even t h o u g h , t h i s s e t of measures r e s u l t s i n D.O. l e v e l s s l i g h t l y below 5mg/l, as seen i n f i g . 3 . 48 l o a d from u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s i s removed. T h i s i s s y n t h e s i z e d i n T a b l e X. A g a i n , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e of t h e t o t a l c r e a t e d a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e X d oes n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o r e a l i t y i f 90% of t h e BOD l o a d from urban c o m m u n i t i e s were removed. The r e a l f i g u r e i s l i k e l y t o be s l i g h t l y s m a l l e r t h a n t h e one a c t u a l l y p r e s e n t e d . T a b l e X shows t h a t an a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of 18 t o n n e s o f BOD/day i s c r e a t e d . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g i n d u s t r i e s , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f Simao, may not o n l y c o n t i n u e t o d i s c h a r g e t h e i r p r e s e n t o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d s i n t o t h e P a r a i b a b u t , a l s o , t h a t i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n t h e b a s i n c o u l d expand. T h i s e x p a n s i o n c o u l d happen u n t i l a t o t a l i n c r e a s e i n i n d u s t r i a l d i s c h a r g e r e a c h e s 18 t o n n e s o f BOD/day, w i t h o u t r e q u i r i n g any c u t b a c k s on t h e e x i s t i n g BOD l o a d from i n d u s t r i a l s o u r c e s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o remember, t h o u g h , t h a t t h i s a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y i s u n e v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d a l o n g t h e r i v e r and, t h e r e f o r e , does not a l l o w f o r t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of d i s c h a r g e s t o t a l i n g 18 t o n n e s of BOD/day i n a few p o i n t s . A g a i n , a D.O. p r e d i c t i o n model b a s e d on t h e S t r e e t e r - P h e l p s e q u a t i o n s c o u l d d e t e r m i n e th e a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y f o r s p e c i f i c r e a c h e s of t h e r i v e r . Even t h o u g h t h i s i s what t h e s i t u a t i o n would l o o k l i k e i n 1980, i t w i l l change i n t h e f u t u r e as t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s a l o n g t h e P a r a i b a grow. I n d e e d , th e BOD l o a d from urban c o m m u n i t i e s w i l l i n c r e a s e o v e r f u t u r e y e a r s as a f u n c t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , even t h o u g h a 90% r e m o v a l o f t h e BOD l o a d from t h o s e c o m m u n i t i e s i s m a i n t a i n e d . Thus, p a r t of t h e 49 T a b l e X - M u n i c i p a l O r g a n i c L o a d s f o r D i f f e r e n t BOD Removal R a t e s (1) (2) (1) " (2) M u n i c i p a l i t i e s Remain ing Load Remaining Load C r e a t e d Ass f o r a 40% BOD f o r a 90% BOD i m i l a t i v e R e m o v a l ( k g / d a y ) R e m o v a l ( k g / d a y ) C a p a c i t y ( k g / d a y ) Guararema 199 33 166 J a c a r e i 2349 391 1958 Sao J o s e dos Campos ; 6565 1094 5471 Cacapava 946 158 788 T a u b a t e 4129 688 3441 Tremembe 311 52 259 Pindamonhangaba 1050 175 875 R o s e i r a 57 10 47 A p a r e c i d a do N o r t e 898 150 748 G u a r a t i n g u e t a 1981 330 1651 L o r e n a 1547 258 1289 C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a 434 72 362 C r u z e i r o 1507 251 1256 L a v r i n h a s 16 3 13 Q u e l u z 130 22 108 TOTALS 22119 3687 18432 50 a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y w i l l be u s e d up by t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s t h e m s e l v e s as t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n grows. T a b l e X I shows t h a t , f o r a 90% BOD r e m o v a l r a t e , t h e BOD l o a d f r o m u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s w i l l i n c r e a s e by a p p r o x i m a t e l y 29% between 1980 and 1985, i . e . from 3687 t o 4761kg of BOD/day. T h e r e f o r e , i n f i v e y e a r s , 1074kg of BOD/day w h i c h r e p r e s e n t r o u g h l y 6% o f t h e a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y w i l l be u s e d up by an i n c r e a s e i n t h e BOD l o a d f r o m t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s . T h i s means e i t h e r t h a t i n d u s t r i a l e x p a n s i o n i n t h e b a s i n w i l l have t o be l i m i t e d t o t h e r e m a i n i n g a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o r t h a t BOD l o a d s from i n d u s t r i a l s o u r c e s w i l l have t o be c u r t a i l e d by t h e amount u s e d up by t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e BOD l o a d from t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s . Of c o u r s e , an e x p a n s i o n i n i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s can a l w a y s o c c u r so l o n g as t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r i s not e x c e e d e d . F o r t h i s , t h e i n d u s t r i e s have a r a n g e of o p t i o n s w hich may i n c l u d e c h a n g e s i n raw m a t e r i a l s or i n d u s t r i a l p r o c e s s e s u t i l i z e d , u t i l i z a t i o n of h i g h e r l e v e l s o f e f f l u e n t t r e a t m e n t , m e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n of c e r t a i n p o i n t s of t h e r i v e r , and so f o r t h . In t h e c a s e of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , t u r b i n e a e r a t i o n i s a n o t h e r o p t i o n t o be c o n s i d e r e d . Due t o low D.O. l e v e l s o f t h e w a t e r s of t h e J a g u a r i Dam, i n s t a l l a t i o n o f t u r b i n e a e r a t i o n d e v i c e s c o u l d improve D.O. l e v e l s below Sao J o s e dos Campos, where t h e J a g u a r i R i v e r f l o w s i n t o t h e P a r a i b a . In o r d e r - t o d e t e r m i n e th e l e a s t - c o s t measure or s e t of measures w h i c h would m a i n t a i n t h e D.O. l e v e l i n t h e r i v e r , t h e i n d u s t r i e s would have t o c o n s i d e r t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t s of e a c h o f t h o s e measures or s e t of m e a s u r e s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o remember, T a b l e XI - M u n i c i p a l D i s c h a r g e s f o r a 90% BOD Removal R a t e - 1980 and 1985 1980 1985 M u n i c i p a l i t y Urban P o p . BOD Load Urban P o p . BOD L o a d S e r v i c e d * ( k g / d a y ) S e r v i c e d * ( k g / d a y ) Guararema 6143 33 8344 45 J a c a r e i 72493 391 99042 535 Sao J o s e dos Campos 202648 1094 282900 1528 Cacapava 29191 158 35534 192 T a u b a t e 127450 688 161811 874 Tremembe 9607 52 12314 66 P i ndamonhangaba 32417 175 38856 210 R o s e i r a 1760 10 2160 12 A p a r e c i d a do N o r t e 27720 150 33970 183 G u a r a t i n g u e t a 61157 330 72250 390 L o r e n a 47757 258 58637 317 C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a 13385 72 15195 82 C r u z e i r o 46518 251 54504 294 L a v r i n h a s 480 3 1200 7 Q u e l u z 4000 22 4800 26 TOTALS 682726 3687 881517 4761 (*) Based on T a b l e No. 19 of CEEIVAP - P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0003/79 - R e l a t o r i o No. 5, p . 9 3 . and T a b l e s No. 2. IX and N o . 5 . I I o f C e e i v a p - P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0001/79 R e l a t o r i o N o . l 52 t h o u g h , t h a t o t h e r f a c t o r s s u c h as c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f t o x i c s u b s t a n c e s i n t h e w a t e r s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e b a s i n . CONCLUSION The t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s o f water q u a l i t y management p r o b l e m s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s o l u t i o n t o w a t e r q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s i s d i c t a t e d by t h e c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a f a c t o r . T h i s s o l u t i o n c r e a t e s an a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y w h i c h may be u s e d f o r f u r t h e r i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e b a s i n . These i s s u e s w i l l need t o be a d d r e s s e d i n t h e d e s i g n o f t h e p o l i c y mechanism f o r i m p l e m e n t i n g a water q u a l i t y management program f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . 53 IV. ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING MECHANISM FOR WATER POLLUTION CONTROL The p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r examined t h e p r o b l e m s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n o f t h e w a ter q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . I t c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e l e a s t - c o s t t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n t o t h e h i g h f e c a l c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s r e s u l t s i n g r e a t e r r e d u c t i o n o f BOD l o a d s t h a n would be n e c e s s a r y t o a c h i e v e t h e D.O. s t a n d a r d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . I t a l s o c o n c l u d e d t h a t s u c h a s o l u t i o n would r e s u l t i n p o t e n t i a l b e n e f i t s t o i n d u s t r i a l d i s c h a r g e r s b e c a u s e t h e s e d i s c h a r g e r s ( w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of Simao p u l p and p a p e r m i l l ) c o u l d not o n l y d i s c h a r g e t h e i r p r e s e n t w a s t e l o a d s but c o u l d i n c r e a s e them t o some e x t e n t w i t h o u t v i o l a t i n g t h e ambient DO s t a n d a r d . In t h i s c h a p t e r , p o l i c y mechanisms f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a w a t e r q u a l i t y management program f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r b a s i n w i l l be examined t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i r s u i t a b i l i t y f o r d e a l i n g w i t h t h e p r o b l e m s s u c h a program s h o u l d a d d r e s s . I t w i l l a l s o examine t h e f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n t h a t t h e t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n imposes on t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and how t h e p r o b l e m c r e a t e d by t h a t b u r d e n c o u l d p o s s i b l y be s o l v e d . A. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR MUNICIPALITIES OF THE SOLUTION TO  THE PROBLEM OF SEWAGE DISCHARGE FROM URBAN COMMUNITIES As we have s e e n , t h e s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m of sewage d i s c h a r g e from u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s a l o n g t h e P a r a i b a c o n s i s t s of t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s i n e a c h of t h o s e c o m m u n i t i e s . Even t h o u g h t h e t e c h n o l o g y f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of 54 f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s i s r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e and r e p r e s e n t s an e c o n o m i c a l s o l u t i o n , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h o s e t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e s q u i t e s u b s t a n t i a l i n v e s t m e n t s . Thus, i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o examine t h e economic i m p l i c a t i o n s o f s u c h a sewage t r e a t m e n t p r o g r a m f o r t h e l o c a l r e s i d e n t s who have t o pay f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s , and f o r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , who have t o t a k e t h e i n i t i a t i v e t o b u i l d t h o s e f a c i l i t i e s . The n e c e s s a r y i n v e s t m e n t f o r e a c h of t h e u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e X I I . The same t a b l e shows a c o s t p e r i n h a b i t a n t r a t i o w h i c h was c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g t h e p r o j e c t - s e r v i c e d p o p u l a t i o n and t h e r e q u i r e d i n v e s t m e n t s . Even t h o u g h t h e s e r a t i o s v a r y f r o m c a s e t o c a s e , t h e most r e p r e s e n t a t i v e r a t i o a p p e a r s t o be Cr$5800.00, g i v e n t h a t i t o c c u r s f o r t h o s e c o m m u n i t i e s w h i c h , p r e s e n t l y , do n o t have any k i n d o f sewage t r e a t m e n t . Lower r a t i o s a r e f o u n d f o r t h o s e c o m m u n i t i e s w h i c h a l r e a d y t r e a t t h e i r e f f l u e n t s but r e q u i r e f u r t h e r i n v e s t m e n t s i n o r d e r t o s e r v i c e an a p p r o p r i a t e p a r t of t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . In B r a z i l , a l l sewage t r e a t m e n t p r o j e c t s aim f o r a s e r v i c e d p o p u l a t i o n of 80% of t h e t o t a l u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s f i g u r e r e f l e c t s t h e g o a l s of t h e f e d e r a l g u i d e l i n e s f o r s a n i t a t i o n . In 1982 c r u z e i r o s , t h e c a p i t a l c o s t per i n h a b i t a n t r a t i o i s Cr$20,198.00 or a p p r o x i m a t e l y US$130.00. I f we c o n s i d e r t h e a m o r t i z a t i o n o f t h i s c o s t o v e r 20 y e a r s a t an a n n u a l i n t e r e s t r a t e o f 20%, t h e amount t o be s e t a s i d e a n n u a l l y f o r t h e a m o r t i z a t i o n by e a c h i n h a b i t a n t i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y US$27.00, or US$2.25 m o n t h l y . T h i s m o n t h l y f i g u r e r e p r e s e n t s r o u g h l y 2% of T a b l e XII - Inves tments and C o s t per I n h a b i t a n t f o r the C o n s t r u c t i o n o f F a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r the C i t i e s i n the P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n - Sao P a u l o (1979) U r b a n Communit ies P o p u l a t i o n (1000 i n h a b i t a n t s ) P o t e n t i a l BOD L o a d Inves tment C o s t / I n h a b . Urban S e r v i c e d ( k g / d a y ) ( m i l l i o n Cr$) ( C r $ 1 0 0 0 . 0 0 ) Guarrema 6 5 250 27 5 .4 J a c a r e i 88 70 3800 409 5 . 8 Sao J o s e dos Campos 230 184 9940 732 3 . 9 Cacapava 44 35 1900 146 4 .2 T a u b a t e 145 116 6260 678 5 .8 Tremembe 11 9 480 24 2 .7 Pindamonhangaba 45 36 1950 220 6.1 A p a r e c i d a do Norte 35 28 1500 164 5 .8 G u a r a t i n g u e t a 90 72 3900 421 5 .8 L o r e n a 55 44 2400 39 0 .9 R o s e i r a 2 2 90 15 7 .5 C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a 18 14 780 180 1 2 . 8 C r u c e i r o 57 46 2460 269 5.8 S o u r c e : CEEIVAP 001/79 - R e l a t o r i o No. 2, p . 42 56 t h e minimum m o n t h l y wage of Cr$16,608.00 (US$107.00), as o f May, 1982. Even t h o u g h t h i s f i g u r e may n o t be a s t r o n o m i c a l , i t i s most l i k e l y t o impose some h a r d s h i p on t h e p o o r . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f s u c h a sewage t r e a t m e n t p r o g r a m would r e p r e s e n t a v e r y d i f f i c u l t f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m f o r t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w h i c h o p e r a t e t h e i r own s y s t e m s ; namely, A p a r e c i d a do N o r t e , C r u z e i r o , G u a r a t i n g u e t a , J a c a r e i , and T a u b a t e . The a n n u a l a m o r t i z a t i o n c o s t of s u c h an i n v e s t m e n t p r o g r a m would r e p r e s e n t a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f t h e budget o f most m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . The a n n u a l a m o r t i z a t i o n c o s t of t h e i n v e s t m e n t s by t h e c i t i e s of T a u b a t e and J a c a r e i r e p r e s e n t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , 30% and 50% of t h e e s t i m a t e d m u n i c i p a l b u d g e t s f o r 1980. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t T a u b a t e and J a c a r e i have t h e l a r g e s t b u d g e t s i n t h e b a s i n , a f t e r t h e c i t y of Sao J o s e dos Campos. The w o r s t c a s e i s i n C a c h o e i r a P a u l i s t a where the a n n u a l a m o r t i z a t i o n c o s t c o r r e s p o n d s t o 217% of t h e 1979 m u n i c i p a l b u d g e t . 1 9 Thus, i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t s u c h i n v e s t m e n t s r e p r e s e n t a s u b s t a n t i a l f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n f o r t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s worsened by t h e f a c t t h a t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w h i c h o p e r a t e t h e i r own s y s t e m s do n o t have a c c e s s t o s u b s i d i z e d f e d e r a l money f o r s a n i t a t i o n p r o g r a m s . T h i s money i s o n l y a v a i l a b l e t o m u n i c i p a l i t i e s whose sy s t e m s a r e o p e r a t e d by SABESP. The a p p a r e n t s o l u t i o n f o r t h o s e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s o p e r a t i n g 1 9 F i g u r e s on t h e m u n i c i p a l b u d g e t s were t a k e n from CEEIVAP -P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0001/79, R e l a t o r i o no.1, p.4.9 and R e l a t o r i o no.2, p.18. 57 t h e i r own sy s t e m s would be t o hand t h e i r s y s t e m s t o SABESP. However, some m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a r e r e l u c t a n t t o do so b e c a u s e ( i ) t h e y would l o s e a u t h o r i t y o v e r an i m p o r t a n t l o c a l i s s u e and ( i i ) t h e a c t i o n would most l i k e l y r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n t h e burden of t h e l o c a l t a x - p a y e r , s i n c e SABESP would c h a r g e t h e u s e r s . Thus, w h i l e i t seems t h a t t h e t r a n s f e r e n c e of t h e s y s t e m s from t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o SABESP would t a k e c a r e of t h e f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m s , i t does not seem t o be p o l i t i c a l l y a p p e a l i n g t o t h e l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s . In summary, a water q u a l i t y management s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n would have t o a d d r e s s two p r o b l e m s : ( i ) a l l o c a t i n g t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y t o i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n f a c e of an i n c r e a s i n g w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e from u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s , a s i n d i c a t e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r ; and, ( i i ) e a s i n g t h e f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n on t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . T a k i n g t h e s e as c r i t e r i a t h a t a water q u a l i t y management s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n s h o u l d meet, I p r o p o s e t o a s s e s s t h e e x i s t i n g management s y s t e m and t o l o o k a t a l t e r n a t i v e s y s tems w h i c h c o u l d remedy t h e d e f i c i e n c i e s of t h e f o r m e r , i f d e f i c i e n c i e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d . B. ASSESSMENT OF THE EXISTING WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM As we have seen i n c h a p t e r two, t h e e x i s t i n g w a ter q u a l i t y management s y s t e m o p e r a t e s t h r o u g h t h e i s s u a n c e of p e r m i t s t o th e d i s c h a r g e r s , who have t o comply w i t h e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e l e g i s l a t i o n . I t i s e s s e n t i a l l y a r e g u l a t o r y s y s t e m , a l t h o u g h i t o f f e r s i n c e n t i v e s f o r c o m p l i a n c e w i t h t h e 58 e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of f i n e s i n t h e c a s e o f v i o l a t i o n s . The p e r m i t i s g r a n t e d t o t h e d i s c h a r g e r , b a s e d on c a l c u l a t i o n s w h i c h i n d i c a t e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y f o r t h e d i s c h a r g e r t o l o c a t e a t a p a r t i c u l a r s i t e w i t h o u t v i o l a t i n g t h e a m b ient s t a n d a r d s . In o t h e r words, t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e whether t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r , i n a s p e c i f i c r e a c h , i s not e x c e e d e d by t h e p r o p o s e d p o l l u t i n g a c t i v i t y . F o l l o w i n g t h i s p r o c e d u r e , p e r m i t s would be g r a n t e d u n t i l t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e r i v e r was b e i n g t o t a l l y u s e d . T h i s p r o c e d u r e has i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h i s s t u d y . I t means t h a t t h e a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y c r e a t e d by a 90% r e d u c t i o n of t h e BOD l o a d f r o m m u n i c i p a l d i s c h a r g e s would be a l l o c a t e d t o o t h e r p o l l u t i n g a c t i v i t i e s , u n t i l i t was t o t a l l y consumed. T h i s would be a c c e p t a b l e i f d i s c h a r g e s were c o n s t a n t o v e r t i m e . B u t , as we have seen i n c h a p t e r t h r e e , t h e o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e s f r o m u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s i n c r e a s e o v e r t i m e as p o p u l a t i o n s grow. T h e r e f o r e , once t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e r i v e r i s c o m p l e t e l y u t i l i z e d , no more p o l l u t i n g a c t i v i t i e s c o u l d be a l l o w e d i n t h e b a s i n i f a m b ient s t a n d a r d s a r e not t o be v i o l a t e d . Even i f a c e r t a i n amount o f t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y were s e t a s i d e f o r i n c r e a s e s i n o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e s from u r b a n c o m m u n i t i e s , f u r t h e r c u r t a i l m e n t of o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d s would be r e q u i r e d whenever t h e amount s e t a s i d e i s u s e d up. But, how c o u l d t h e s y s t e m a d a p t t o i n c r e a s i n g demands f o r a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y when a l l a v a i l a b l e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y has been a l l o c a t e d ? The e x i s t i n g management s y s t e m 59 w o u l d be u n a b l e t o d e a l w i t h s u c h s i t u a t i o n s . By n a t u r e i t i s a s t a t i c a r r a n g e m e n t w h i c h c a n n o t a d a p t t o c h a n g e d c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e f u t u r e . To d e a l w i t h f u t u r e i n c r e a s e s i n w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e s , t h e p r e s e n t management s y s t e m would have t o r e q u i r e r e d u c t i o n s by e x i s t i n g d i s c h a r g e r s . But, t h i s w ould be v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o do. The e x i s t i n g s y s t e m i s b a s e d on c o m p l i a n c e w i t h e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s and, t h e r e f o r e , i f d i s c h a r g e r s a r e n o t v i o l a t i n g t h e s e s t a n d a r d s (even t h o u g h t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f d i s c h a r g e s m i g h t be c a u s i n g v i o l a t i o n of t h e ambient s t a n d a r d s ) , t h e r e i s n o t h i n g t h a t can be done t o make d i s c h a r g e r s r e d u c e t h e i r w a s t e l o a d s , u n l e s s h i g h e r e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s a r e imposed. However, t o i n t r o d u c e h i g h e r e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s t h e s t a t e l e g i s l a t i o n on p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l would have t o be amended. T h i s i s n o t l i k e l y t o happen, s i n c e i t w o u l d r e s u l t i n h i g h e r s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e e n t i r e s t a t e . B e c a u s e p e r m i t s a r e g r a n t e d t o d i s c h a r g e r s , t h e a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y c r e a t e d by t r e a t i n g t h e m u n i c i p a l e f f l u e n t s would be d i s t r i b u t e d t o o t h e r d i s c h a r g e r s w i t h o u t any d i r e c t c o m p e n s a t i o n . T h i s does not a p p e a r f a i r b e c a u s e t h e c r e a t i o n of t h a t a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y w i l l impose s u b s t a n t i a l c o s t s upon t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . C e r t a i n l y , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would somehow b e n e f i t from t h e i n c r e a s e i n i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e b a s i n t h a t c o u l d r e s u l t from t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y . However, t h e s e b e n e f i t s would not s i g n i f i c a n t l y improve t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o pay t h e c o s t s of t h e t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s b e c a u s e t h e l i o n ' s s h a r e o f t h e t a x r e v e n u e s g e n e r a t e d by 60 i n d u s t r i e s b e l o n g t o t h e f e d e r a l and s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s , n o t t o m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . The e x i s t i n g management s y s t e m l a c k s t h e a b i l i t y t o p r o v i d e f o r f i n a n c i a l a r r a n g e m e n t s w h i c h would compensate m u n i c i p a l i t i e s f o r t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y and, t h e r e f o r e , e a s e t h e f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n t h a t t h e sewage t r e a t m e n t program imposes on t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and, u l t i m a t e l y , t h e l o c a l t a x - p a y e r s . In summary, t h e e x i s t i n g w a t e r q u a l i t y management s y s t e m does not seem t o have t h e a b i l i t y t o a d a p t t o f u t u r e i n c r e a s e s i n t h e o r g a n i c w a s t e l o a d s from m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and t o p r o v i d e f o r f i n a n c i a l a r r a n g e m e n t s t o h e l p m u n i c i p a l i t i e s pay o f f t h e c o s t s of t r e a t i n g t h e i r e f f l u e n t s . I n d e e d , a water q u a l i t y management s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n must be a b l e t o a d d r e s s b o t h p r o b l e m s . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s w o r t h w h i l e t o l o o k a t a l t e r n a t i v e management s y s t e m s w h i c h might be a b l e t o overcome t h e s e p r o b l e m s . C. ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO THE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT  SYSTEM FOR THE PARAIBA RIVER BASIN In s e l e c t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s t o t h e water q u a l i t y management s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r f o r e x a m i n a t i o n , c o n s i d e r a t i o n has been g i v e n t o t h e need f o r t h e s y s t e m t o l i m i t t h e f i n a n c i a l b u r den imposed on m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and t o be c a p a b l e of a d a p t i n g t o c o n d i t i o n s when BOD a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y i s b e i n g f u l l y u t i l i z e d . T hese c o n s i d e r a t i o n s were of paramount c o n c e r n . Two mechanisms t h a t o f f e r p r o m i s e of f u l f i l l i n g t h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s were s t u d i e d . T h e s e a r e t h e e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m 61 and a s y s t e m t h a t p e r m i t s t h e t r a n s f e r of d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s . 1. EFFLUENT CHARGES E c o n o m i s t s c l a i m t h a t an a p p r o p r i a t e l e v e l of waste r e d u c t i o n c a n be i n d u c e d by u s i n g an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m . The b a s i c i d e a i s t h a t t h e r e i s a s o c i a l l y o p t i m a l l e v e l of p o l l u t i o n w h i c h happens when t h e t o t a l s o c i a l c o s t o f p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i s e q u a l t o t h e t o t a l s o c i a l b e n e f i t s t h a t r e s u l t f r o m t h e p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l a c t i v i t y and t h a t a c h a r g e f o r e a c h u n i t o f waste d i s c h a r g e d can be s e t t h a t would i n d u c e th e s o c i a l l y o p t i m a l l e v e l of p o l l u t i o n . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t b e n e f i t s from water q u a l i t y improvement ( o r damages c a u s e d by waste d i s c h a r g e s ) can be c a l c u l a t e d . However, t h e e s t i m a t i o n of b e n e f i t s f r o m water q u a l i t y improvement p r e s e n t s a p r a c t i c a l p r o b l e m b e c a u s e of t h e d i f f i c u l t y of m e a s u r i n g t h e b e n e f i t s i n m onetary t e r m s . To overcome t h i s p r o b l e m , i t i s g e n e r a l l y assumed t h a t ambient s t a n d a r d s s h o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d and c h a r g e s so d e s i g n e d as t o p r o v i d e an economic i n c e n t i v e t o waste p r o d u c e r s t o r e d u c e d i s c h a r g e s t o t h e p o i n t t h a t t h e s t a n d a r d s would be met. In t h i s s e n s e , e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s c o u l d be e a s i l y a d d e d t o t h e e x i s t i n g w ater q u a l i t y management s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n , g i v e n t h a t t h e s t a n d a r d s a l r e a d y e x i s t . Once a c h a r g e i s s e t , e a c h d i s c h a r g e r would a d j u s t h i s d e c i s i o n i n s u c h a way as t o m i n i m i z e h i s c o s t s . T h a t i s , e a c h d i s c h a r g e r would d e c i d e whether o r not i t i s more e c o n o m i c a l f o r him t o d i s c h a r g e h i s w a s t e l o a d and pay t h e c h a r g e t h a n r e d u c e h i s w a s t e l o a d t h r o u g h a l t e r n a t i v e methods. T h i s way, t h e 62 a p p r o p r i a t e l e v e l of p o l l u t i o n ( r e f l e c t e d by t h e s t a n d a r d s ) w o u l d be a c h i e v e d w i t h minimum c o s t t o s o c i e t y . W i t h r e g a r d t o m u n i c i p a l waste d i s c h a r g e s , f e c a l c o l i f o r m c o u n t s must be r e d u c e d and t h i s c a n be a c h i e v e d a t l e a s t c o s t by a s i n g l e method ( f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s ) t h a t r e d u c e s BOD l o a d i n g s a t a l l l o c a t i o n s t o a g r e a t e r e x t e n t t h a n i s n e c e s s a r y t o meet t h e ambient s t a n d a r d f o r D.O.. S h o u l d an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e be u t i l i z e d t o a c h i e v e t h e s t a n d a r d f o r f e c a l c o l i f o r m l e v e l s , f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s would be b u i l t by a l l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e r e would be no need t o impose c h a r g e s t o meet t h e D.O. s t a n d a r d u n t i l a s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n d i s c h a r g e s by i n d u s t r i e s and m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o o k p l a c e as a r e s u l t of p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l g r o w t h . T h i s would mean t h a t t h e f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n of s u p p l y i n g t h e a d d i t i o n a l BOD a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y d u r i n g t h i s g r o w t h p e r i o d would be b o r n e e n t i r e l y by t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . T h i s would l i k e l y r e s u l t i n s t r o n g o p p o s i t i o n , by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , t o an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m . I f , a f t e r t h e BOD a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y had been f u l l y u t i l i z e d an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m were t o be imposed i n o r d e r t o a v o i d v i o l a t i o n of t h e D.O. s t a n d a r d t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would have no o p t i o n but t o pay t h e c h a r g e s on t h e i r r e m a i n i n g BOD l o a d s s i n c e i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a t e c h n o l o g y would be d e v e l o p e d t h a t would be more e f f i c i e n t t h a n th e f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s . I n d u s t r i a l d i s c h a r g e r s t o o would l i k e l y be o p p o s e d t o an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m b e c a u s e t h e i r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l c o s t s w ould be g r e a t e r t h a n under a l t e r n a t i v e s y s t e m s , s i n c e t h e y would not o n l y be p a y i n g f o r t h e c o s t of waste r e d u c t i o n b u t , 63 a l s o , would be p a y i n g c h a r g e s on t h e r e m a i n i n g w a s t e l o a d t h a t t h e y c h o s e t o d i s c h a r g e i n t o t h e waterway. I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t whereas c o s t s t o d i s c h a r g e r s would be g r e a t e r , t h e net c o s t s t o s o c i e t y would be a t a minimum b e c a u s e t h e c h a r g e s p a i d c o u l d be u s e d f o r some o t h e r s o c i a l p u r p o s e . In b r i e f , i t a p p e a r s t h a t an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e s y s t e m c o u l d be d e v i s e d t h a t would a c h i e v e t h e D.O. and f e c a l c o l i f o r m s t a n d a r d s . However, t h i s s y s t e m would p l a c e much of t h e b u r d e n upon m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . T h i s b u r d e n would p r o b a b l y be r e g a r d e d as i n e q u i t a b l e and t h e d i f f i c u l t y of r a i s i n g m u n i c i p a l t a x e s t o meet t h e c o s t s would l i k e l y make t h e s y s t e m i m p r a c t i c a b l e . 2. TRANSFERABLE DISCHARGE PERMITS A s y s t e m of t r a n s f e r a b l e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s (TDP) was f i r s t d e v e l o p e d by John H. D a l e s . 2 0 D a l e s ' a p p r o a c h c o n s i s t s of t h e s e l l i n g of p o l l u t i o n r i g h t s m a r k e t e d by what he c a l l s a water c o n t r o l b o a r d . Because t h e s e p o l l u t i o n r i g h t s a r e p r i c e d i n t h e m a rket, t h e y would have t h e same e f f e c t of an e f f l u e n t c h a r g e and would make e v e r y d i s c h a r g e r a d j u s t h i s d e c i s i o n t o p o l l u t e i n s u c h a way as t o m i n i m i z e h i s t o t a l c o s t of t r e a t m e n t p l u s e i t h e r c h a r g e s or p e r m i t s . In a s y s t e m of t r a n s f e r a b l e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of a waterway would be t r a n s l a t e d i n t o a f i x e d amount o f p e r m i t s w h i c h would be a l l o c a t e d t o d i s c h a r g e r s . Because t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of a waterway i s d e t e r m i n e d by 2 0 John H. D a l e s . P o l l u t i o n , p r o p e r t y & r i g h t s . U n i v e r s i t y of T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1968. 64 v a r i a b l e f a c t o r s s u c h as f l o w and t e m p e r a t u r e , i t i s n o t c o n s t a n t o v e r t i m e . However, i f ambient s t a n d a r d s a r e not t o be v i o l a t e d i n any i n s t a n c e t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of a waterway s h o u l d be c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e c r i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s of f l o w , t e m p e r a t u r e , and o t h e r f a c t o r s . Thus, t h e t o t a l number of p e r m i t s a v a i l a b l e s h o u l d be l i m i t e d t o t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e waterway f o r c r i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s . I t becomes o b v i o u s t h a t once t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y i s t o t a l l y a l l o c a t e d , t h e e x i s t e n c e o f new d i s c h a r g e r s would be d e p e n d e n t upon a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e w a s t e l o a d s of e x i s t i n g d i s c h a r g e r s . R e d u c t i o n i n t h e w a s t e l o a d of e x i s t i n g d i s c h a r g e r s would f r e e a c e r t a i n number of p e r m i t s w h i c h c o u l d t h e n be s o l d t o p o t e n t i a l d i s c h a r g e r s . By d o i n g so, a TDP s y s t e m not o n l y i s a b l e t o a d a p t t o c h a n g es i n w a ste l o a d i n g s b u t , a l s o , e n c o u r a g e s t h e e f f i c i e n t use of t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of a waterway. The a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y among d i s c h a r g e r s i n v o l v e s q u e s t i o n s a b o u t e q u i t y . T h a t i s , how much s h o u l d be a l l o c a t e d t o m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and how much t o i n d u s t r i e s ? W i t h i n t h e s e two g r o u p s , how much s h o u l d be a l l o c a t e d t o e a c h i n d i v i d u a l m u n i c i p a l i t y and i n d u s t r y ? T h e s e a r e i n d e e d v e r y d i f f i c u l t q u e s t i o n s and, y e t , t h e y must be a n s w e r e d i f a TDP s y s t e m i s t o be c o n s i d e r e d . An e c o n o m i s t would say t h a t t h e market would t a k e c a r e of an e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of t h e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s . However, t h i s assumes t h a t a l l d i s c h a r g e r s have p e r f e c t knowledge of t h e i r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l c o s t s and, t h e r e f o r e , would buy as many p e r m i t s as n e c e s s a r y t o m i n i m i z e t h e s e c o s t s . T h i s a l s o assumes t h a t t h e r e 65 i s p e r f e c t c o m p e t i t i o n among p o t e n t i a l p e r m i t b u y e r s . B e c a use t h e market i s most l i k e l y n ot t o o p e r a t e under t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s , we s h o u l d t r y t o f i n d a n o t h e r way t o a l l o c a t e t h e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s . Even i f t h e market o p e r a t e d u n d e r t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s , i t may not p r o d u c e t h e s o c i a l l y d e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of p e r m i t s between d i s c h a r g e r s . I f e q u i t y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s have t o be made i n o r d e r t o have a s o c i a l l y d e s i r a b l e a l l o c a t i o n of p e r m i t s among d i s c h a r g e r s , o t h e r t h a n e conomic c r i t e r i a p r o v i d e d by a market s y s t e m have t o be a p p l i e d , as d i s c u s s e d l a t e r when p o s s i b l e need f o r s u b s i d y p r ograms i s i n d i c a t e d . In t h e c a s e of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n , i t may p r o v e more a d v i s a b l e t o c o n s i d e r a f r e e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p e r m i t s t o t h e d i s c h a r g e r s who a r e a l r e a d y l o c a t e d t h e r e . I f d i s c h a r g e r s were c h a r g e d f o r t h e i n i t i a l a l l o c a t i o n -of p e r m i t s , s e v e r a l p r o b l e m s a r e l i k e l y t o emerge. F i r s t of a l l , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would be f a c e d w i t h an i n s t a n t a n e o u s e x t r a c o s t which would worsen t h e i r f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m s . I n d u s t r i e s would a l s o be f a c e d w i t h t h e same e x t r a c o s t and t h i s w ould r e s u l t i n u n d e s i r a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e s f o r some i n d u s t r i e s w h i c h may not be a b l e t o a b s o r b t h o s e c o s t s . T h i s , of c o u r s e , c o u l d have u n d e s i r a b l e s o c i a l e f f e c t s as w e l l , such as unemployment. Thus, i t seems l i k e t h e i n i t i a l a l l o c a t i o n of p e r m i t s s h o u l d n ot i n v o l v e any c h a r g e s . The TDP s y s t e m d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n , t h o u g h n o t e n t i r e l y i d e n t i c a l t o D a l e s ' a p p r o a c h , i s b a s e d on t h e same i d e a of m a r k e t a b l e p o l l u t i o n r i g h t s . Such a s y s t e m would have t h e f o l l o w i n g f e a t u r e s : 66 • c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s would be h a n d l e d t h r o u g h r e g u l a t i o n ; • t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e r i v e r s e c t i o n s would be c a l c u l a t e d by u s i n g t h e S t r e e t e r - P h e l p s e q u a t i o n s ; • BOD l o a d i n g s p e r m i t t e d i n e a c h s e c t i o n would be e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e s e c t i o n ; • p e r m i s s i b l e l o a d i n g s w o u l d be a l l o c a t e d t o waste d i s c h a r g e r s i n s u c h a way a s n o t t o e x c e e d t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of a s p e c i f i c s e c t i o n of t h e r i v e r ; • a waste d i s c h a r g e r would be a l l o w e d t o t r a n s f e r , t h r o u g h s a l e , a l l o r a p o r t i o n of h i s a l l o c a t e d l o a d i n g t o an e x i s t i n g o r p o t e n t i a l d i s c h a r g e r . Such t r a n s f e r would be r e c o r d e d by a r e g u l a t o r y body. Because t h e c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a s t a n d a r d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r can be a c h i e v e d a t l e a s t c o s t t h r o u g h t r e a t m e n t of m u n i c i p a l sewage d i s c h a r g e s by f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s and t h a t i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a more e f f i c i e n t t e c h n o l o g y would be d e v e l o p e d , i t seems most a p p r o p r i a t e t h a t c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s be h a n d l e d t h r o u g h r e g u l a t i o n . T h i s would be done by r e q u i r i n g a l l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n t o a d o p t f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r sewage t r e a t m e n t . T h i s done, the d i s s o l v e d oxygen p r o b l e m would be h a n d l e d t h r o u g h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e TDP s y s t e m , w h i c h would a l l o c a t e t h e BOD a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r among d i s c h a r g e r s . 67 To i l l u s t r a t e how t h e TDP s y s t e m would work i f a p p l i e d t o t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , an a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m t o a s e c t i o n o f t h e r i v e r i s p r e s e n t e d below. A p p l i c a t i o n Of The TDP S y stem To The P a r a i b a R i v e r (km 122  To 266) To i l l u s t r a t e how t h e TDP s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r would work, a s s u m p t i o n s on t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f p e r m i t s between m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s , and among i n d i v i d u a l d i s c h a r g e r s w i t h i n t h e s e g r o u p s must be made. W i t h r e g a r d t o t h e a l l o c a t i o n of p e r m i t s between m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s , t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n assumes t h a t i t wold be a c c e p t a b l e t o a l l o c a t e 50 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y t o t h e f o r m e r and t h e o t h e r 50 p e r c e n t t o t h e l a t t e r . W i t h r e g a r d t o t h e a l l o c a t i o n of p e r m i t s among i n d i v i d u a l d i s c h a r g e r s w i t h i n t h e s e g r o u p s , t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n assumes t h a t i t w o u l d be e q u a l l y a c c e p t a b l e t o a l l o c a t e p e r m i t s i n d i r e c t p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l BOD l o a d s 2 1 of i n d i v i d u a l d i s c h a r g e r s , as l o n g as t h i s d o e s not r e s u l t i n a c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p e r m i t s which would e x c e e d t h e a c t u a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r s e c t i o n where t h e p o l l u t i o n s o u r c e i s l o c a t e d . L a c k of t e c h n i c a l d a t a f o r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e S t r e e t e r -P h e l p s e q u a t i o n s d i d not p e r m i t the c a l c u l a t i o n of t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . The a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y was e s t i m a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o a method 2 1 P o t e n t i a l BOD l o a d i s d e f i n e d as t h e g r o s s l o a d a c e r t a i n a c t i v i t y p r o d u c e s i f no t r e a t m e n t i s a p p l i e d . 68 d e s c r i b e d below. Because t h e f i g u r e on t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y so d e r i v e d i s l i k e l y t o be i n a c c u r a t e , t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n can o n l y be t a k e n as an i l l u s t r a t i o n . However, d e s p i t e t h i s l a c k o f a c c u r a c y , t h e c o n c l u s i o n s h e r e i n a r e n o t i n v a l i d a t e d . The a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e r i v e r was assumed t o be t h e d i f f e r e n c e between ( i ) t h e t o t a l BOD l o a d ( i n c l u d i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s i n t h i s s e c t i o n ) f o r 1980 and ( i i ) t h e amount of BOD l o a d c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o 40% o f t h e m u n i c i p a l l o a d i n g s p l u s 50% of t h e l o a d i n g f r o m Simao. T h i s method was d e r i v e d from t h e s e t o f c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h r e s u l t i n a D.O. l e v e l w h i c h can r o u g h l y meet the a m b i e n t s t a n d a r d , as shown i n F i g u r e 3. U s i n g t h e f i g u r e s on m u n i c i p a l and i n d u s t r i a l BOD l o a d s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e X I I I and T a b l e XIV, r e s p e c t i v e l y , and f o l l o w i n g t h e method d e s c r i b e d above, t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h i s s e c t i o n of t h e r i v e r was f o u n d t o be 33,131 k i l o g r a m s o f BOD p e r day. S i n c e i t was assumed t h a t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s would be e a c h a l l o c a t e d f i f t y p e r c e n t o f t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y , t h e y would e a c h be a l l o w e d t o d i s c h a r g e a g r o s s l o a d of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 16,565kg of BOD p e r day. However, i n 1980, t h e t o t a l BOD l o a d from m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i s 24,166kg of BOD p e r day and t h e t o t a l BOD l o a d from i n d u s t r i e s i s 28,177kg of BOD p e r day. T h e r e f o r e , b o t h would be e x c e e d i n g t h e i r e n t i t l e m e n t s t o t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r , under t h e g i v e n c o n d i t i o n s . However, i f f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r t h e t r e a t m e n t of m u n i c i p a l d i s c h a r g e s were a p p l i e d , t h e t o t a l BOD l o a d from t h e s e d i s c h a r g e s would be r e d u c e d t o o n l y 2,417kg of 69 T a b l e X I I I - M u n i c i p a l G r o s s BOD L o a d s f o r 1980, 1985, and 1990 M u n i c i p a l i t i e s 1980 BOD Loads ( k g / d a y ) 1985 1990 Guararema J a c a r e i Sao Jose dos Campos C a c a p a v a Taubate Tremembe 332 3915 10942 1576 6882 519 451 5348 15277 1919 8738 665 573 7307 21326 2336 11094 852 70 T a b l e XIV - L i s t o f I n d u s t r i e s and t h e i r P o t e n t i a l and D i s c h a r g e d BOD L o a d i n g s i n Reach Km 122 to 266 (1980) GENERATED PRESENT DISCHARGE INDUSTRIES Kg BOD/day CUTBACK (%) Kg BOD/da^ Simao 19,092 _ 19,092 I n q u i b r a s 3,730 - 3,370 H e n k e l 3,520 96 139 L a v a l p a 1,570 50 785 R h o d i a ( J a c a r e i ) 275 41 163 Fo s a n i l 241 38 iso R h o d i a ( S . J . Campos) 3,805 51 1,862 G e n e r a l M o t o r s 1,080 95 54 P e t r o l e o B r a s i l e i r o 1,008 86 144 J o h n s o n & J o h n s o n 867 92 66 Monsanto 768 92 58 l b r a p e 659 88 82 Mecrom 483 30 338 F r i g o v a l p a 349 82 62 Coop. L a t . S . J . Campos 310 90 31 M a t a r a z z o 177 17 147 Tece lagem P a r a i b a 166 — 166 Kodak 153 70 46 N e s t l e 1,911 90 191 M a f e r s a 74 58 31 F o r d do B r a s i l 4,148 99 55 J o s e V i c e n t e C a p e l e t o 264 79 56 Volkswagen do B r a s i l 700 92 56 M e c a n i c a Pesada 255 90 26 D i s f r a n ., 134 84 21 Moge 105 30 73 F e c u l a r i a B e l a V i s t a 90 — 90 F e c u l a r i a Va ldemar V i l a l t a 88 30 62 F a b . F a i n h a N i c i a G . V i l a r t a 83 — 83 F a b . F a r i n h a J . M u l a t o 79 30 55 Comevap 66 61 26 Diamond Schamrock 165 84 26 F e c u l a r i a C a l d a s 120 30 84 S c h r a d e r 101 60 41 Embraer ( S . J . Campos) 464 97 16 G r a n j a I t a m b i ( S . J . Campos) 452 96 17 Sao P a u l o A l p a r g a t a s ( S . J . C a m p o s ) 141 83 24 V i g o r ( S . J . Campos) 103 . 72 29 TOTALS 47,796 28,177 S o u r c e : CEEIVAP - P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0 0 0 1 / 7 9 , R e l a t o r i o , No. 1, P l a t e 2 . V p . 2 . 2 . 2 4 71 BOD p e r day, i n 1980, a s s u m i n g a n i n e t y p e r c e n t BOD r e m o v a l r a t e . In t h e TDP s y s t e m one k i l o g r a m of BOD p e r day can be t r a n s l a t e d as one p e r m i t . Thus, w h i l e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would have 14,148 u n u s e d p e r m i t s , i n d u s t r i e s would be s h o r t 11,612 p e r m i t s . Under t h e TDP s y s t e m , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would be a b l e t o t r a n s f e r , t h r o u g h s a l e , a l l t h e p e r m i t s t h a t i n d u s t r i e s need, i n o r d e r t o match t h e i r t o t a l BOD l o a d . D e p e n d i n g on t h e number o f p e r m i t s an i n d u s t r y were a l l o c a t e d d u r i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e f i f t y p e r c e n t of t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r among i n d u s t r i r e s , a s i t u a t i o n m i ght be c r e a t e d whereby an i n d u s t r y would be e n t i t l e d t o d i s c h a r g e a g r e a t e r l o a d t h a n what i t i s d i s c h a r g i n g p r e s e n t l y , due t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h i s i n d u s t r y i s t r e a t i n g i t s e f f l u e n t . On t h e o t h e r hand, i n d u s t r i e s w h i c h a r e n o t t r e a t i n g t h e i r e f f l u e n t s might end up w i t h p e r m i t s t h a t c o u n t f o r l e s s t h a n what t h e y need t o be a b l e t o d i s c h a r g e t h e i r p r e s e n t BOD l o a d i n g s . B e c a u s e t h e i n i t i a l a l l o c a t i o n of p e r m i t s would be done by a r e g u a l t o r y body, t h i s same e n t i t y c o u l d t a k e c a r e o f t h e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e p e r m i t s o f t h o s e i n d u s t r i e s whose e n t i t l e m e n t s a r e l a r g e r t h a n t h e i r n e e d s . The i n d u s t r i e s r e c e i v i n g p e r m i t s from t h i s r e d i s t r i b u t i o n scheme c o u l d be c h a r g e d a p r i c e p e r p e r m i t w h i c h would s e r v e t o compensate t h o s e i n d u s t r i e s t h a t c o m p l i e d w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g l e g i s l a t i o n and were t r e a t i n g t h e i r e f f l u e n t s . A f t e r t h i s f i r s t r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of p e r m i t s amongst i n d u s t r i e s , a number of i n d u s t r i e s would s t i l l be i n need of p e r m i t s . T h i s need would amount t o 11,612 p e r m i t s w h i c h c o u l d 72 be t r a n s f e r r e d from t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s , t h r o u g h s a l e . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s a r e a b l e t o r e d u c e one u n i t of BOD f o r a c o s t w h i c h i s a l w a y s s m a l l e r t h a n t h a t w l i i c h would r e s u l t from any o t h e r t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s . In o t h e r words, i t assumes t h a t f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s can r e d u c e one u n i t o f BOD w i t h a minimum c o s t and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , i n d u s t r i e s would be i n t e r e s t e d i n b u y i n g p e r m i t s from m u n i c i p a l i t i e s r a t h e r t h a n r e d u c i n g t h e i r BOD l o a d i n g s t h r o u g h o t h e r methods. I f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s s o l d a l l t h e 11,612 p e r m i t s t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s , t h e f o r m e r would s t i l l be a b l e t o w i t h h o l d from t h e m a r ket p e r m i t s e q u i v a l e n t t o 2,536kg of BOD p e r day. T h e s e p e r m i t s c o u l d e i t h e r be s o l d t o new i n d u s t r i e s l o c a t i n g i n t h e b a s i n and i n d u s t r i e s w h i c h wanted t o expand t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s , o r be k ept f o r f u t u r e i n c r e a s e s i n m u n i c i p a l BOD l o a d s w h i c h a r e e x p e c t e d t o be 832kg and 1,932kg of BOD p e r day f o r 1985 and 1990, r e s p e c t i v e l y , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e BOD l o a d f o r 1980. A s suming t h a t a p e r m i t would be s o l d t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s f o r a p r i c e w h i c h i s e q u a l t o t h e c o s t t o t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s of r e d u c i n g one u n i t o f BOD, m u n i c i p a l i t i e s m i ght be a b l e t o r e c o u p a p p r o x i m a t e l y 53 p e r c e n t of t h e c o s t s t h e y i n c u r r e d by b u i l d i n g t h e sewage t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s . T h u s , t h e r e v e n u e s g e n e r a t e d by t h e s a l e of p e r m i t s t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s would h e l p m u n i c i p a l i t i e s f i n a n c e t h e i r sewage t r e a t m e n t c o s t s . 73 A n a l y s i s And E v a l u a t i o n Of The TDP System The a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e TDP s y s t e m f o r t h e s e c t i o n between k i l o m e t e r s 122 and 266 o f the. P a r a i b a R i v e r i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s y s t e m w o u l d e n c o u r a g e an e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r and p r o v i d e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h f i n a n c i a l h e l p w h i c h would be u s e d t o pay p a r t o f t h e c o s t s of a p r o g r a m o f sewage t r e a t m e n t w h i c h i s i n d e e d n e c e s s a r y f o r a c h i e v i n g t h e ambient s t a n d a r d f o r c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a . One i m p o r t a n t a s s u m p t i o n was t h a t f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s a r e a l e a s t -c o s t t e c h n o l o g y f o r r e d u c i n g BOD l o a d s . Under t h i s a s s u m p t i o n , t h e a p p l i c a t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s m i g h t r e c o u p 53 p e r c e n t of t h e c o s t s of b u i l d i n g sewage t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s i f e a c h p e r m i t i s s o l d f o r a p r i c e w h i c h e q u a l s t h e c o s t of p r o d u c i n g t h a t p e r m i t . The c u r v e of d i s s o l v e d oxygen p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 3 i n d i c a t e s , however, t h a t between k i l o m e t e r s 1 and 100 ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y ) t h e r e would be no demand f o r a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y . N e v e r t h e l e s s , sewage t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s w ould s t i l l n eed t o be b u i l t by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h i n t h a t r e a c h , s i n c e h i g h c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s a r e o b s e r v e d a l o n g t h e e n t i r e r i v e r . M u n i c i p a l i t i e s l o c a t e d w i t h i n t h i s r e a c h would not be a b l e t o m a r ket t h e i r p e r m i t s , s i n c e t h e r e i s no demand f o r a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y . In o r d e r t o d e a l w i t h t h i s p r o b l e m , two a l t e r n a t i v e m e a s ures c o u l d be t a k e n . F i r s t , t h e r e v e n u e s g e n e r a t e d by t h e t r a n s f e r of p e r m i t s from m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s would go t o a s i n g l e f u n d w h i c h would, t h e n , be a d m i n i s t e r e d i n s u c h a way as t o a v o i d d i s c r e p a n c i e s between t h e c a p a b i l i t y of 74 m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o c a r r y o u t t h e sewage t r e a t m e n t p rogram. T h i s f u n d c o u l d p o s s i b l y be a d m i n i s t e r e d by an e n t i t y formed by an a s s o c i a t i o n o f t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n . S e c ond, t h e s t a t e and f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t s c o u l d p r o v i d e s u b s i d i e s and g r a n t s f o r t h o s e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w h i c h were not a b l e t o market t h e i r p e r m i t s s h o r t l y a f t e r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e TDP s y s t e m . In t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e TDP s y s t e m t o t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i t was a l s o assumed t h a t f i f t y p e r c e n t of t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r would be a l l o c a t e d t o m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and t h e o t h e r f i f t y t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s . D i f f e r e n t s h a r i n g a r r a n g e m e n t s c o u l d be d e v i s e d w h i c h , however, would have d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s upon t h e s h a r i n g of p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l c o s t s between m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s . I f , f o r ' e x a m p l e , a l l t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r were a l l o c a t e d t o t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , i n d u s t r i e s would b e a r a l l t h e c o s t s of waste r e d u c t i o n . A l t h o u g h t h e need f o r a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y may v a r y a l o n g t h e r i v e r as a f u n c t i o n of d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n among d i s c h a r g e r s , t h e TDP s y s t e m seems t o have t h e v i r t u e s t h a t a r e e s s e n t i a l t o a s y s t e m w h i c h w o u l d l i k e l y b r i n g a b o u t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e water q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . One v i r t u e i s t h e a b i l i t y of t h e s y s t e m t o a d a p t t o c h a n g e s i n w a s t e l o a d s . When, i n t h e f u t u r e , t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r i s f u l l y u t i l i z e d t h e s y s t e m w i l l s t i l l be a b l e t o h a n d l e i n c r e a s e s i n p o t e n t i a l w a s t e l o a d s by i n d u c i n g r e d u c t i o n s i n t h e e x i s t i n g w a s t e l o a d s i n s u c h a way as t o keep 75 t h e t o t a l w a s t e l o a d d i s c h a r g e d t o t h e r i v e r c o n s t a n t o v e r t i m e . By d o i n g s o, t h e s y s t e m would be i n d u c i n g an e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r . The o t h e r v i r t u e of t h e TDP s y s t e m i s t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r g e n e r a t i n g r e v e n u e s f o r t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , r e d u c i n g t h e f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n on them. C o n c l u s i o n The a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e TDP s y s t e m t o t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s s y s t e m would be a b l e t o meet t h e two c r i t e r i a e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e b e g i n i n g of t h i s c h a p t e r , namely: ( i ) t h e a b i l i t y t o g e n e r a t e r e v e n u e s t o h e l p m u n i c i p a l i t i e s f i n a n c e t h e i r own t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s ; and, ( i i ) t h e a b i l i t y t o d e a l w i t h f u t u r e i n c r e a s e s i n waste l o a d s from b o t h m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s . To make i t p o s s i b l e t o i l l u s t r a t e how a TDPs' s y s t e m f o r th e P a r a i b a R i v e r would work, s e v e r a l a s s u m p t i o n s were made w h i c h , however, do not i n v a l i d a t e t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n . Two i m p o r t a n t a s s u m p t i o n s were: ( i ) i t would be a c c e p t a b l e t o a l l o c a t e 50% o f t h e t o t a l number of p e r m i t s t o m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and t h e o t h e r 50% t o t h e i n d u s t r i e s ; and, ( i i ) i t would be e q u a l l y a c c e p t a b l e t o a l l o c a t e t h o s e p e r m i t s t o i n d i v i d u a l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s i n d i r e c t p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e i r p o t e n t i a l BOD l o a d s . As was p o i n t e d o u t above, d i f f e r e n t a l l o c a t i o n s of t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r i v e r c o u l d be d e v i s e d w h i c h , however, would have d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s upon p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l c o s t s . The d e c i s i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f p e r m i t s s h o u l d be l e f t t o a government ag e n c y or a water 76 c o n t r o l b o a r d who s h o u l d be a c c o u n t a b l e t o t h e p a r t i e s a f f e c t e d by i t s d e c i s i o n . B e c a u s e t h e d e s i g n of i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r water q u a l i t y management i s an a r e a of s t u d y i n i t s e l f , and b e c a u s e i t goes beyond t h e scop e of t h i s t h e s i s , t h e a u t h o r w i l l l i m i t h i m s e l f t o t h e comments made a b o v e . However, t h e a u t h o r r e c o g n i z e s t h a t even t h e most a p p r o p r i a t e mechanism f o r water q u a l i t y management may not p r o d u c e t h e e x p e c t e d r e s u l t s i f a d e q u a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n and o p e r a t i o n a r e not p r o v i d e d . The e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on t h e d e s i g n o f i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r water q u a l i t y management may p r o v i d e some i n s i g h t s on how t h o s e p r o b l e m s s h o u l d be a d d r e s s e d . 77 V. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS S e v e r a l s t u d i e s and d a t a a v a i l a b l e on water q u a l i t y i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i n d i c a t e t h a t major water q u a l i t y p r o b l e m s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b i o d e g r a d a b l e o r g a n i c w a s t e s dumped i n t h e r i v e r by t h e urb a n c o m m u n i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s . T h e s e p r o b l e m s a r e d e f i n e d by low l e v e l s o f d i s s o l v e d oxygen and h i g h c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s . A l t h o u g h h i g h c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s i n d i c a t e t h e p r e s e n c e o f e i t h e r or b o t h human and a n i m a l e x c r e m e n t , i n t h e c a s e of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i t i s a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h human e x c r e m e n t , g i v e n t h e l a r g e amount of raw sewage d i s c h a r g e d i n t o t h e r i v e r . W h i l e h i g h c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a c o u n t s c a n , t h e n , be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h m u n i c i p a l d i s c h a r g e s , low l e v e l s of d i s s o l v e d oxygen a r e c a u s e d m o s t l y by BOD l o a d s of b o t h m u n i c i p a l and i n d u s t r i a l d i s c h a r g e s . The a n a l y s i s of t h e t e c h n i c a l s o l u t i o n s t o t h e s e two p r o b l e m s r e v e a l s t h a t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would have t o ado p t f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r t r e a t i n g t h e i r w a s t e s w h i l e i n d u s t r i e s c o u l d r e d u c e t h e i r BOD l o a d s t h r o u g h a wide r a n g e of measures w h i c h may i n c l u d e i n p u t m a t e r i a l c h a n g e s , e f f l u e n t t r e a t m e n t , or i n s t a l l a t i o n of m e c h a n i c a l a e r a t i o n d e v i c e s i n t h e r i v e r . However, t h e t r e a t m e n t o f m u n i c i p a l sewage by f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s would r e s u l t i n a BOD l o a d c u r t a i l m e n t w h i c h , a c c o r d i n g t o a d i s s o l v e d oxygen model f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r , would c a u s e d i s s o l v e d oxygen l e v e l s t o r i s e w e l l above t h e s t a n d a r d i n most s e c t i o n s of t h e r i v e r . T h i s means t h a t a d d i t i o n a l a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y f o r BOD i s c r e a t e d w h i c h c o u l d p o s s i b l y be a l l o c a t e d t o o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s g e n e r a t i n g BOD l o a d s . 78 A l t h o u g h f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s f o r t h e t r e a t m e n t of m u n i c i p a l sewage d i s c h a r g e s would p r o v i d e a l e a s t - c o s t s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m s of d i s s o l v e d oxygen and c o l i f o r m b a c t e r i a , t h e i n v e s t m e n t s n e c e s s a r y t o b u i l d t h o s e t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s r e p r e s e n t a heavy f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n f o r t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . T h i s f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m seems t o be, t h e r e f o r e , a m a j o r o b s t a c l e t o t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a p r o g r a m w h i c h would b r i n g a b o u t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e w a ter q u a l i t y l e v e l e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . The a s s e s s m e n t of t h e e x i s t i n g s y s t e m f o r w a ter p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i n d i c a t e s t h a t ( i ) t h e s y s t e m i s not a b l e , by i t s e l f , t o d e a l w i t h f u t u r e i n c r e a s e s i n BOD l o a d s ( s p e c i a l l y i n t h e BOD l o a d from m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , s i n c e p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i s , t o a c e r t a i n e x t e n t , u n c o n t r o l l a b l e ) ; and, ( i i ) t h e s y s t e m does not p r o v i d e f o r f i n a n c i a l a r r a n g e m e n t s w h i c h c o u l d e a s e t h e b u rden upon t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , i f t h e y had t o b u i l d t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s . And, as was s a i d above, a s o l u t i o n t o t h e f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m of t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i s i n d e e d e s s e n t i a l f o r t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e water q u a l i t y l e v e l e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a . A s y s t e m o f t r a n s f e r a b l e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s i n w h i c h m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s were e a c h a s s i g n e d f i f t y p e r c e n t of t h e r i v e r ' s BOD a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y has been shown i n t h i s t h e s i s t o a d d r e s s b o t h d e f i c i e n c i e s o f t h e e x i s t i n g s y s t e m . An a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e TDP s y s t e m t o a r e a c h of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r has d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t s u c h a s y s t e m would a u t o m a t i c a l l y f o r c e a s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m of i n c r e a s i n g w a s t e l o a d s , g i v e n t h e 79 f i x e d amount o f p e r m i t s a v a i l a b l e f o r d i s t r i b u t i o n and, more i m p o r t a n t l y , would p r o v i d e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h a means t o overcome t h e f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m s t h e y would f a c e i n b u i l d i n g sewage t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s . T h i s l a t t e r f e a t u r e o f t h e s y s t e m would r e s u l t from t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ' a b i l i t y t o s e l l u n u s e d p e r m i t s . By c u t t i n g back t h e i r BOD l o a d by n i n e t y p e r c e n t t h r o u g h sewage t r e a t m e n t , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would n o t make use o f t h e t o t a l amount of a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y t h e y a r e e n t i t l e d t o and w o u l d , c o n s e q u e n t l y , be a b l e t o market t h e u n u s e d p e r m i t s . A s s u m i n g t h a t t h e sewage t r e a t m e n t t e c h n o l o g y t o be us e d can r e s u l t i n a l o w e r c o s t p e r u n i t of BOD r e d u c t i o n t h a n any o t h e r t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e t o i n d u s t r i e s , t h e m a r k e t i n g of p e r m i t s by t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i s g u a r a n t e e d . A r o u g h e s t i m a t i o n of t h e number of p e r m i t s m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would be a b l e t o market i n one s e c t i o n of t h e r i v e r i n d i c a t e s t h a t , i n t h i s c a s e , t h e y m i g h t be a b l e t o r e c o u p as much as 53% of t h e c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t n e c e s s a r y t o b u i l d t h e sewage t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s . A l s o , b e c a u s e t h o s e p e r m i t s would be s o l d a t a p r i c e w h i c h i s lo w e r t h a n what t h e c o s t t o i n d u s t r y w o u l d be i f t h e y had t o r e d u c e t h e i r own BOD l o a d i n g s , i n d u s t r i e s would be e c o n o m i z i n g . In t h i s s e n s e , a TDP s y s t e m would a p p e a l t o b o t h m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i e s . A l t h o u g h , f o r 1980, an a n a l y s i s of t h e r e a c h k i l o m e t e r 122 t o 266 shows t h a t t h e t o t a l number o f p e r m i t s t h a t c o u l d be m a r k e t e d i s g r e a t e r than t h e number of p e r m i t s i n d u s t r i e s would have need o f , t h e r i g h t t o buy p e r m i t s has t o be l i m i t e d t o t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of t h e r e a c h where t h e b u y e r ( d i s c h a r g e r ) 80 i s l o c a t e d . In o t h e r words, t h e t o t a l number of p e r m i t s i n one r e a c h of t h e r i v e r s h a l l not e x c e e d t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h a t r e a c h . T h i s means t h a t a f i r m l o c a t e d on a r e a c h where t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y i s b e i n g t o t a l l y u s e d would have t o r e d u c e i t s BOD l o a d even t h o u g h t h e r e a r e p e r m i t s f o r s a l e i n o t h e r r e a c h e s of t h e r i v e r . In r e a l i t y , b e c a u s e t h e number of p e r m i t s f o r s a l e s h o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d f o r e a c h r e a c h of t h e r i v e r , t h e r e w o u l d be no p e r m i t s f o r s a l e i n a r e a c h where t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y i s t o t a l l y u s e d . T h i s s t u d y i n d i c a t e s t h a t a TDP s y s t e m i s l i k e l y t o b r i n g a b o u t t h e r e a l i z a t i o n of t h e water q u a l i t y l e v e l e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r . T h i s would be a c c o m p l i s h e d by p r o v i d i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h a means t o p a r t l y overcome t h e f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m a sewage t r e a t m e n t p r o g r a m would e n t a i l . However, m u n i c i p a l i t i e s may need f u r t h e r h e l p . In t h i s c a s e , d i r e c t s u b s i d i e s o r g r a n t s f r o m e i t h e r o r b o t h t h e f e d e r a l and s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s may be n e c e s s a r y t o h e l p m u n i c i p a l i t i e s meet t h e c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t s r e q u i r e d f o r t h e c o n t r u c t i o n of sewage t r e a t m e n t p l a n t s . A p r o g ram of d i r e c t s u b s i d i e s would not c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e TDP s y s t e m and may i n d e e d be n e c e s s a r y i f a t r u e commitment t o c l e a n up p o l l u t i o n i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r i s made. J o h n s o n and Brown(1976:285) say t h a t s u b s i d y p rograms f o r p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l were o b s e r v e d i n a l l c o u n t r i e s t h e y s t u d i e d and t h a t i t i s t e m p t i n g t o a r g u e on t h i s e v i d e n c e a l o n e t h a t s u b s i d i e s m i g h t i n d e e d be n e c e s s a r y . They a l s o say t h a t t h e p o or r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d from t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of s u b s i d i e s i n c e r t a i n c a s e s a r e due t o a p oor d e s i g n of t h e s u b s i d y program. 81 In t h e c a s e of t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r B a s i n , d i r e c t s u b s i d i e s from e i t h e r or b o t h t h e f e d e r a l and s t a t e g o v e r n m e n t s t o t h e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a r e v e r y l i k e l y t o p r o d u c e t h e e x p e c t e d r e s u l t s , g i v e n t h a t t h e s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m of sewage d i s c h a r g e i s d e p e n d e n t on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f f a c u l t a t i v e l a g o o n s and t h a t t h i s s o l u t i o n would r e s u l t i n t h e a c h i e v e m e n t of t h e water q u a l i t y l e v e l s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r t h e r i v e r . As was s a i d i n C h a p t e r One, t h i s s t u d y aimed a t t h e a n a l y s i s of mechanisms t h a t can be a p p l i e d t o c o n t r o l p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e s . The f a c t t h a t a s y s t e m of t r a n s f e r a b l e d i s c h a r g e p e r m i t s seems t o p r o v i d e an a d e q u a t e framework f o r t h e c o n t r o l o f p o l l u t a n t d i s c h a r g e s i n t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r does not i m p l y t h a t i t i s a c o m p r e h e n s i v e s y s t e m f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l . I n d e e d , a c o m p r e h e n s i v e s y s t e m f o r water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l may make use of a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y i n s t r u m e n t s t h a t a p p l y t o t h e d i f f e r e n t s t a g e s of p r o d u c t i o n and c o n s u m p t i o n of goods t h a t g e n e r a t e w a s t e s . T h e r e f o r e , a c o m p r e h e n s i v e water p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s y s t e m f o r t h e P a r a i b a R i v e r may i n v o l v e l a n d use z o n i n g , raw m a t e r i a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n and p r o d u c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n , i n a d d i t i o n t o a TDP s y s t e m . 82 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. A n d e r s o n , F.R. e t a l . E n v i r o n m e n t a l Improvement T h r o u g h  Economic I n c e n t i v e s . B a l t i m o r e : The J o h n s H o p k i n s U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1977. 2. A r c e i v a l a , S . J . . Wastewater T r e a t m e n t and D i s p o s a l :  E n g i n e e r i n g and E c o l o g y i n P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l . New Y o r k : M a r c e l D e k k e r , I n c . , 1981. 3. B a b i c h , H., e t a l . " E n v i r o n m e n t a l Q u a l i t y C r i t e r i a : Some C o n s i d e r a t i o n s . " E n v i r o n m e n t a l Management , v o l . 5 ( 1 9 8 1 ) , no.3, pp.191-205. 4. B a r d e , J e a n - P h i l i p p e , e t a l . "Water P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l P o l i c i e s A r e G e t t i n g R e s u l t s . " Ambio , v o l . 8 ( 1 9 7 9 ) , no.4, pp.152-59. 5. B a s t o s , C a r a i R.A., e t a l . Urn E s f o r c o P a r a S i m u l a r a  P o l u i c a o das Aguas na B a c i a do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l . Sao P a u l o : CETESB, Dezembro, 1974. Baumol, W i l l i a m J . and W a l l a c e E . O a t e s . E c o n o m i c s ,  E n v i r o n m e n t a l P o l i c y and t h e Q u a l i t y of L i f e . New j e r s e y : P r e n t i c e H a l l I n c . , 1979. B i d w e l l , R o b i n , and S a n d r a Mason. " E f f l u e n t C h a r g i n g Systems and T h e i r A d m i n i s t r a t i v e I m p l i c a t i o n s . " P r o g r e s s i v e Water T e c h n o l o g y , v o l . 1 3 ( 1 9 8 0 ) , pp.393-411. CEEIVAP. P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0001/79 , R e l a t o r i o s no.1 e no.2, 1979 (mimeo). CEEIVAP. P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0002/79 , R e l a t o r i o no.1, 2 v o l s . and R e l a t o r i o no.2, 197 9 Cmimeo). CEEIVAP. P r o j e t o G e r e n c i a l 0003/79 , R e l a t o r i o no.5, 1979 (mimeo) . CETESB. A l t e r n a t i v a s p a r a a P r e s e r v a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e da  Agua do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l ~ T r e c h o P a u l i s t a . Sao P a u l o , Novembro, 1976. (mimeo). 12. CETESB. B a c i a do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l : r e l a c a o das c a r g a s  p o l u i d o r a s s i g n i f i c a t i v a s , d i a g r a m a u n i f i l a r do R i o  P a r a i b a . Sao P a u l o , 1978. 13. CETESB. Campanha E s t a d u a l de M e t a i s P e s a d o s e P e s t i c i d a s - R i o P a r a i b a do S u l . Sao P a u l o , 1978 (mimeo). 14. CETESB. L e g i s l a c a o B a s i c a P o l u i c a o A m b i e n t a l E s t a d u a l e  F e d e r a l . Sao P a u l o , 1980 (mimeo). 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 1 1 . 83 15. CETESB. L e v a n t a m e n t o de Dados I n d u s t r i a l s no V a l e do  P a r a i b a . Sao P a u l o , Maio 1979, (mimeo). 16. CETESB. Modelo M a t e m a t i c o do R i o P a r a i b a - DOSAG . Sao P a u l o : CETESB/STEC 0462, 1977, (mimeo). 17. CETESB. Modelo de Q u a l i d a d e da Aqua do R i o P a r a i b a - T r e c h o P a u l i s t a . U n i v e r s i t y of T e x a s , 1976, (mimeo). 18. CETESB. P r o j e t o de A v a l i a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e das Aquas do  R i o P a r a i b a do S u l . Sao P a u l o , Dezembro 1978, (mimeo). 19. CETESB. Q u a l i d a d e das Aquas I n t e r i o r e s do E s t a d o de Sao  P a u l o - 1978, 1979, 1980 , 3 v o l s . Sao P a u l o : CESTESB. 20. CETESB. Q u a l i d a d e d a s Aquas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l . Sao P a u l o : CETESB/STEC 1020, Dezembro 1978. 21. CETESB. S i m u l a c a o da Q u a l i d a d e da Agua do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l . Sao P a u l o : CETESB/STEC 0972, Setembro 1978, (mimeo) . 22. CETESB. S i t u a c a o das P r i n c i p a i s I n d u s t r i a s P o l u i d o r a s de  Aqua do R i o P a r a i b a " ~. Sao P a u l o , Dezembro 1980, (mimeo) . 23. CETESB - DAEE. C a r a c t e r i z a c a o dos E s g o t o s D o m e s t i c o s no  V a l e do P a r a i b a ~ Sao P a u l o , O u t u b r o 1978, (mimeo) . 24. CETESB-DAEE. Q u a l i d a d e das Aquas do R i o P a r a i b a do S u l . Sao P a u l o , J a n e i r o 1980, (mimeo). 25. DAEE-SONDOTECNICA. E s t u d o H i d r o l o q i c o do R i o P a r a i b a do  S u l - S e t o r P a u l i s t a , 3 1 v o l s . . Sao P a u l o , 1974-76. 26. D a l e s , John H.. P o l l u t i o n , p r o p e r t y & p r i c e s . U n i v e r s i t y of T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1968. 27. D a v i s , R o b e r t K.. The Range o f C h o i c e i n Water Management B a l t i m o r e : The J o h n s H o p k i n s U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1968. 28. Dewees, D o n a l d N.. 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