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The influence of zoning on the location of multiple family development Gram, Margo 1981

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THE INFLUENCE OF ZONING ON THE LOCATION OF MULTIPLE FAMILY DEVELOPMENT by MARGO GRAM B.A., The University of Waterloo, 1980 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS .  • . in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (School of Community and Regional Planning) We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September, 1981 (c) Margo Gram, 1981 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. School Department of Community and Regional Planning The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 Date October 16, 1981 DF-fi (2/791 ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s i n v e s t i g a t e s e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s as a means of p r o v i d i n g i n f o r m a t i o n t o p l a n n e r s and p o l i c y - m a k e r s on s p e c i f i c p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . The problem examined i n the study i s whether e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s can determine the i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g on m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. I t was assumed t h a t the main i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g i s i n d e t e r m i n i n g the l o c a t i o n of new m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The o b j e c t i v e was t o d e f i n e the s i g n i f i c a n c e of z o n i n g among the f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . Through a review of p l a n n i n g and r e l a t e d l i t e r a t u r e , b a s i c c o n c e p t s of l a n d use models were examined, i d e n t i f y i n g some of the l i m i t a t i o n s of these models. The l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w a l s o i n c l u d e d a number of e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the wide v a r i e t y of e x i s t i n g r e s e a r c h . The f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d t o have the g r e a t e s t i n f l u e n c e of the l o c a t i o n on m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development were i d e n t i f i e d from the s t u d i e s i n c l u d i n g a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d , ease of assembly, p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s of the neighbourhood, s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the neighbourhood and l o c a l demand. These f a c t o r s were i n c l u d e d i n a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , a s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e f o r measuring the amount of v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent v a r i a b l e (the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development) which can be e x p l a i n e d by the v a r i a t i o n i n the independent v a r i a b l e s . I t was hoped t h a t two y e a r s c o u l d be a n a l y z e d but problems w i t h the d a t a l i m i t e d the study t o one y e a r , 1975. The d e s c r i p t i v e d a t a f o r the C i t y of Vancouver i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n 1975, 17 a c r e s of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development was s t a r t e d from a p o s s i b l e 300 a c r e s of d e v e l o p a b l e m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d . The r e s u l t s of the r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e t h a t the z o n i n g v a r i a b l e s which d e f i n e the a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d e x p l a i n e d f o u r times as much of the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development s t a r t s as the combined e x p l a n a t o r y power of the r e m a i n i n g s i g n i f i c a n t independent v a r i a b l e s . The r e s u l t s a r e i n t e r e s t i n g because, they suggest the p o w e r f u l i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g even when t h e r e appears by o b s e r v a t i o n t o be an adequate s u p p l y of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d . Such e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s cannot determine how much development p o t e n t i a l i s needed so as not t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o n s t r a i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. I t does however i n d i c a t e the r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n s of a v a i l a b l e l a n d b e i n g d e v e l o p e d and the s t r e n g t h of z o n i n g i n d e v e l o p e r s ' l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s . F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s c o u l d demonstrate how the p r o p o r t i o n of development a c t i v i t y t o a v a i l a b l e l a n d changes over time as w e l l as the c h a n g i n g i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d b e n e f i t p o l i c y - m a k e r s , p r o v i d i n g them w i t h a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between development and development p o t e n t i a l . The advantage of a s i m p l e form of e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s , such as undertaken h e r e , i s t h a t i t i s a r e l a t i v e l y easy method of g e n e r a t i n g new i n f o r m a t i o n . The type of data used i n t h i s s tudy i s o f t e n a v a i l a b l e i n urban c e n t r e s and the r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s does not i n v o l v e a l a r g e committment i n time or money. P r o v i d e d i v t h a t p l a n n e r s are c a r e f u l t o r e c o g n i z e the weaknesses of e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s , t h e a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n which i s p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n i s j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r i t s c o n t i n u e d use i n p l a n n i n g r e s e a r c h . V TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 THE PROBLEM 1 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 3 DEFINITION OF TERMS ...... 3 Development Potential 3 Multiple Family Residential Development 4 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 4 OUTLINE OF THE STUDY 5 CHAPTER 2. RESIDENTIAL LOCATION LITERATURE ANALYSIS 6 MODEL CHARACTERI STI CS . 7 Classes Of Models .... 8 Level Of Aggregation 10 Treatment Of Time 11 Adequacy Of Data 12 MODELS OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERNS AND PROCESSES 16 Residential Patterning Concepts 16 Burgess Concentric Zone Theory (1925) 16 Hoyts Sector Theory (1939) 17 Theory Of Multiple Nuclei (1945) 17 A c c e s s i b i l i t y Models 18 Alonso (1960) 18 Kain (1961 ) 19 Lowry (1964) 20 Determinants Of Residential Property Price 21 Brigham (1965) .. 22 v i C r e c i n e , D a v i s And Jac k s o n ( 1967) 23 Pennance (1976) 24 Sagalyn ( 1975) 25 Mark (1980) . 27 Det e r m i n a n t s Of R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n . ... 28 Chapin And Weiss ( 1 965) 28 K a i s e r ( 1 968) . . 30 Bourne And B e r r i d g e (1973) 30 Moore ( 1972) 32 Gol d b e r g And U l i n d e r (1978) 34 CONCLUSION .... 35 CHAPTER 3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY . . 37 INTRODUCTION 37 LOCATIONAL VARIABLES ... .. 38 A v a i l a b i l i t y Of Land/Development P o t e n t i a l 38 Proper Zoning 39 A v a i l a b i l i t y Of Sewerage 39 Ease Of Assembly 40 Topography 41 P h y s i c a l C o n d i t i o n s Of The Neighbourhood 41 S o c i a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Of The Neighbourhood 42 L o c a l Demand 42 P r i c e Of Land 43 A c c e s s i b i l i t y 44 S i z e And Type Of Development F i r m 45 T h e o r e t i c a l Set Of D e t e r m i n a n t s For MFD Development . 46 THE STUDY AREA 46 THE DATA 49 THE VARIABLES 51 The Dependent V a r i a b l e 51 The Independent V a r i a b l e s 53 V a r i a b l e s D e s c r i b i n g A v a i l a b i l i t y Of Land. 53 V a r i a b l e s Measuring Ease Of Assembly 54 V a r i a b l e s D e s c r i b i n g P h y s i c a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .... 58 V a r i a b l e s D e s c r i b i n g S o c i a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 59 V a r i a b l e s D e s c r i b i n g L o c a l Demand 60 THE TIME PERIOD 61 THE ANALYSIS 64 Stan d a r d E r r o r Of E s t i m a t e d C o e f f i c i e n t . . 66 The T - r a t i o 66 F - s t a t i s t i c 66. C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c e n t 67 The C o e f f i c i e n t Of D e t e r m i n a t i o n 67 P r e d i c t i o n 68 S t a t i s t i c a l Problems In R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s 69 HYPOTHESES AND EXPECTED RESULTS 69 CHAPTER 4. THE RESULTS 71 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL CONDITIONS 71 1974 71 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 73 1975 73 1977 74 1974 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND 1975 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 75 MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS 77 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSIONS 83 v i i i IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY AND ANALYSIS 84 IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING 86 LIMITATIONS 88 DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH . 89 B i b l i o g r a p h y 92 LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e 1. - C i t y Of Vancouver M u l t i p l e F a m i l y Zones X LIST OF TABLES Tab l e I : V a r i a b l e s E x p l a i n i n g The L o c a t i o n Of M u l t i p l e F a m i l y Development 61 Table I I : MFD U n i t S t a r t s In The C i t y Of Vancouver . .. 62 Table I I I : Development & Development. P o t e n t i a l In A c r e s ... 76 T a b l e IV: C o r r e l a t i o n M a t r i x 78 1 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION THE PROBLEM T h i s study examines e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s as a means of c o n t r i b u t i n g t o a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the impact of p u b l i c p o l i c y on urban development. The problem examined i n t h i s study i s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y . zoned l a n d and m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The purpose i s t o e x p l o r e the k i n d of u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t a s i m p l e a n a l y s i s can o f f e r t o the m atter of how much m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d might be n e c e s s a r y f o r i t not t o c o n s t r a i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. T h i s q u e s t i o n p u z z l e s p o l i c y - m a k e r s and d e v e l o p e r s who are f o r c e d t o work w i t h vague terms such as 'adequate and ' s u f f i c i e n t ' . Without a c l e a r e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the n a t u r e of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p , i t i s d i f f i c u l t of f o r m u l a t e c o n s t r u c t i v e z o n i n g p o l i c i e s . I t i s hoped t h a t the e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s u ndertaken can improve u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the s u b j e c t . The p r a c t i c e of z o n i n g i s one of d i v i d i n g an urban a r e a i n t o d i s t r i c t s and r e g u l a t i n g l a n d use and b u i l d i n g form, h e i g h t and d e n s i t i e s i n each d i s t r i c t . I t has been a p o p u l a r form of l a n d use c o n t r o l s i n c e 1916, when New York en a c t e d i t s f i r s t z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e . In i t s f i r s t twenty y e a r s z o n i n g r e c e i v e d r a p i d a c c e p t a n c e f o r reasons d e s c r i b e d i n the f o l l o w i n g passage: The p r o s p e c t of b e i n g a b l e t o a r r a n g e the d i s t r i b u t i o n of urban f u n c t i o n s of work and r e s i d e n c e , t o keep a l i m i t i n g hand on the h e i g h t , and above a l l , t o have a d e c i s i v e e f f e c t on the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of urban p o p u l a t i o n s , was indeed i n t o x i c a t i n g (Hason,1977,p.8). 2 With a z o n i n g by-law b e i n g a s t a n d a r d f e a t u r e i n most communities, i t becomes easy t o l o s e s i g h t of why i t i s b e i n g used and the impact of i t s r e g u l a t i o n s . While i t i s g e n e r a l l y m a i n t a i n e d t h a t the amount of zoned l a n d e x e r t s a s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e on the r e s u l t i n g development, t h e r e a r e two f a c t o r s which l i m i t i t s i n f l u e n c e . The f i r s t i s t h a t the impact i s r e s t r i c t e d t o new c o n s t r u c t i o n and c o n v e r s i o n a c t i v i t y which i s a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of the e x i s t i n g s t o c k . The second l i m i t a t i o n i s t h a t i t i s the m a r k e t p l a c e which, through s u p p l y and demand, which d e t e r m i n e s the t o t a l volume of a c t i v i t y . S i n c e the amount of zoned l a n d i s o n l y one of the s u p p l y f a c t o r s , an i n c r e a s e i n the amount of zoned l a n d w i l l not n e c e s s a r i l y r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n development. I t s i n f l u e n c e on development w i l l be f e l t most i f an inadequate s u p p l y e x i s t s . Thus z o n i n g cannot encourage development; i t can o n l y a l l o w the development t o o c c u r . I t i s i n the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of development where the amount of zoned l a n d e x e r t s the s t r o n g e s t i n f l u e n c e . The q u e s t i o n asked i n the study i s why does m u l t i p l e f a m i l y o ccur i n one a r e a and not a n o t h e r . What a r e the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which a t t r a c t development t o an area? I t c o u l d be t h a t a l t h o u g h development i s g e n e r a l l y l i m i t e d t o m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d , t h a t o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s i t c s a re more i m p o r t a n t i n a d e v e l o p e r ' s l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . I t i s hoped t h a t an e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s c o u l d i d e n t i f y t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and a s s e s s t h e i r r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h s . I f i f i s p o s s i b l e t o know the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of l a n d t h a t make deve l o p e d p r o p e r t i e s f e a s i b l e t o r e d e v e l o p , the p l a n n e r c o u l d p o s s i b l y f a c i l i t a t e new development by s e l e c t i n g 3 areas for rezoning which best f i t the ideal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY The study addresses the following six objectives: 1. To ide n t i f y in planning and related l i t e r a t u r e the ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s of urban land use models. The.strengths and weaknesses of these models are examined. 2. To ide n t i f y in planning and related l i t e r a t u r e the si g n i f i c a n t factors influencing the location of multiple family r e s i d e n t i a l development; . 3. To establish suitable measures of the the o r e t i c a l factors and to test these in a multiple regression analysis; 4. To determine the importance of zoning r e l a t i v e to the other variables; 5. To examine the public policy implications of the analysis; and 6. To examine the effectiveness of empirical analysis for providing information to planners and policy-makers on policy-oriented questions. DEFINITION OF TERMS Development Potential Development potential i s the amount of vacant or underutilized land within multiple family zones in the c i t y and can be determined by comparing the existing land uses with the potential uses established by the zoning regulations. E s s e n t i a l l y , development potential includes a l l vacant land, 4 s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n c e s , d u p l e x e s and m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y z o n i n g d i s t r i c t s . M u l t i p l e F a m i l y R e s i d e n t i a l Development For the purposes of t h i s s t u d y , m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development c o n s i s t s of a l l p r i v a t e new c o n s t r u c t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s h a v i n g t h r e e or more d w e l l i n g s u n i t s . T h i s i n c l u d e s c l u s t e r h o u s i n g , a p a r t m e n t s , mixed r e s i d e n t i a l development and mixed r e s i d e n t i a l - c o m m e r c i a l development. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY The c o m p l e x i t y of urban l a n d use change f r u s t r a t e s b oth t h e r e s e a r c h e r and the p o l i c y - m a k e r . For the r e s e a r c h e r , the n a t u r e of the a v a i l a b l e d a t a on urban l a n d use p a t t e r n s and change remains a t a l e v e l of g e n e r a l i t y t h a t p r e v e n t s comprehensive a n a l y s i s . A n a l y s i s thus remains o v e r s i m p l i f i e d or too t h e o r e t i c a l t o be of much p r a c t i c a l use t o p o l i c y - m a k e r s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s must c o n t i n u e t o be made whether or not t h e r e e x i s t s a sound knowledge base and an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the impacts of p o l i c y . What e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h hopes t o p r o v i d e i s a more p r e c i s e and r e l e v a n t body of i n f o r m a t i o n which can a s s i s t p o l i c y - m a k e r s w i t h s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n s . An a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e of development p o t e n t i a l may p r o v i d e ' i n f o r m a t i o n on the impact of z o n i n g on the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. Such i n f o r m a t i o n might then a s s i s t p o l i c y - m a k e r s i n d e t e r m i n i n g whether the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d i s ' s u f f i c i e n t ' f o r a c h i e v i n g the p a r t i c u l a r h o u s i n g o b j e c t i v e s 5 of the c i t y . However, these q u e s t i o n s a r e c o m p l i c a t e d and r e q u i r e e x a m i n a t i o n i n a c o n t e x t much broader than i s p o s s i b l e i n a s i n g l e a n a l y s i s . OUTLINE OF THE STUDY The f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r b e g i n s w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n of the i d e a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of an urban l a n d use model and the problems of d e v e l o p i n g such a model. Next, s e v e r a l s t u d i e s u s i n g such models a r e a n a l y z e d both i n terms of method and c o n t e n t , w i t h the o b j e c t i v e of i d e n t i f y i n g the f a c t o r s which b e s t c o n t r i b u t e to an e x p l a n a t i o n of the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. An e m p i r i c a l model i s e s t a b l i s h e d i n Chapter Three. In the f i r s t s e c t i o n , the t h e o r e t i c a l f a c t o r s are d e s c r i b e d r e l a t i v e t o c o n d i t i o n s i n Vancouver. In the remainder of the c h a p t e r , the d a t a s o u r c e , measurement of the v a r i a b l e s , the s t u d y a r e a , time p e r i o d , s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s , and proposed hypotheses a r e p r e s e n t e d . Chapter Four r e p o r t s the f i n d i n g s of the a n a l y s i s . The d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n the f i r s t p a r t of the c h a p t e r and an a n a l y s i s of the r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s i s p r e s e n t e d i n the second p a r t . The p o l i c y and r e s e a r c h i m p l i c a t i o n s of the study f i n d i n g s a r e examined i n Chapter F i v e as w e l l as the l i m i t a t i o n s of the study and s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . 6 CHAPTER 2. RESIDENTIAL LOCATION LITERATURE ANALYSIS The l i t e r a t u r e r e v iewed i n t h i s c h a p t e r s e r v e s two p u r p o s e s : f i r s t , some the l i t e r a t u r e on l a n d use models i s r e v i e w e d t o i d e n t i f y a s e t of model c r i t e r i a used i n the s t u d y ; and s e c o n d l y , an e x a m i n a t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e i s undertaken t o i d e n t i f y the f a c t o r s which b e s t e x p l a i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. A s e t of f i v e model c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s d e v e l o p e d i n the f i r s t p a r t of the c h a p t e r which examines the v a r i o u s a s p e c t s of urban l a n d use models. The s e c t i o n i s i m p o r t a n t as i t o u t l i n e s some of the l i m i t a t i o n s as w e l l as the p o s i t i v e f e a t u r e s of l a n d use models. The s t u d i e s p r e s e n t e d i n the second p a r t of the c h a p t e r are r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the wide v a r i e t y of approaches taken i n the f i e l d of urban s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s and p r o c e s s e s . The approaches examined i n c l u d e t h e o r i e s of r e s i d e n t i a l p a t t e r n s , a c c e s s i b i l i t y models, d e t e r m i n a n t s of r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e and d e t e r m i n a n t s of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n . The s t u d i e s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y the s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. I t i s hoped t h a t by acknowledging the weaknesses of t h e s e s t u d i e s , some e r r o r s can be reduced or a v o i d e d . A c c o r d i n g t o A l o n s o (1968), many r e s e a r c h e r s attempt i n n o v a t i v e s t u d i e s w i t h o u t b e n e f i t t i n g from the e x i s t i n g body of knowledge. O f t e n i n t h e s e c a s e s , a g r e a t d e a l of money i s spent on p r o j e c t s w i t h h i g h p o s s i b i l i t i e s of f a i l u r e . I t i s more d i f f i c u l t t o r e p o r t 7 f a i l u r e s when l a r g e committments of time and money ar e i n v o l v e d . What i s l a c k i n g i s a d i s p a s s i o n a t e r e p o r t on f i n d i n g s and f a i l u r e s from which s c h o l a r s i n t h i s f i e l d , i n c l u d i n g those i n the p r o j e c t , can t e s t and e v o l v e new u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the phenomena w i t h which we a r e d e a l i n g and t e c h n i q u e s t o d e a l w i t h them (p.254). The r e s e a r c h i d e a l s uncovered i n the f i r s t p a r t of t h i s r e v i e w and the t h e o r e t i c a l and o p e r a t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s of the models i d e n t i f i e d i n the l a t t e r p a r t s h o u l d p r o v i d e g u i d e l i n e s f o r the development of an a p p r o p r i a t e model and s e l e c t i o n of r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s . MODEL CHARACTERISTICS S e v e r a l model c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o e v a l u a t e the v a r i o u s approaches of m o d e l l i n g urban s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e have been s e l e c t e d by a number of a u t h o r s as b e i n g most s i g n i f i c a n t i n a p l a n n i n g c o n t e x t (Alonso,1968; Bourne,1967; K a i s e r , 1 9 6 8 ; Lee,1973; L o w r y , l 9 6 5 ) . V a r y i n g degrees of emphasis a r e p l a c e d by the a u t h o r s on p a r t i c u l a r c r i t e r i a , but t h e r e i s a g e n e r a l agreement t h a t the f o l l o w i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d : 1. C l a s s e s of Models 2. L e v e l of A g g r e g a t i o n 3. Treatment of Time 4. Adequacy of Data 8 C l a s s e s Of Models Lowry (1965) and K a i s e r (1968) e v a l u a t e v a r i o u s types of models i n a p l a n n i n g p e r s p e c t i v e and w h i l e t h e i r t e r m i n o l o g i e s d i f f e r , each d i s t i n g u i s h e s between c l a s s e s i n a s c e n d i n g o r d e r of comprehensiveness. The t h r e e .to be r e f e r r e d t o i n t h i s s e c t i o n i n c l u d e d e s c r i p t i v e , p r e d i c t i v e and p l a n n i n g models. D e s c r i p t i v e models are d e s i g n e d t o r e p l i c a t e i n a s i m p l i f i e d form, the r e l e v a n t f e a t u r e s of the e x i s t i n g environment. By r e d u c i n g the c o m p l e x i t y of the o b s e r v e d w o r l d , t h e i r v a l u e i s i n r e v e a l i n g e s t a b l i s h e d urban p a t t e r n s and s t r u c t u r e s . The d e s c r i p t i v e model may a s s i s t i n i d e n t i f y i n g p a t t e r n s but i t can r a r e l y s a t i s f y the p l a n n e r ' s need t o e x p l a i n the p a t t e r n s or p r o v i d e the p l a n n e r w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n about the f u t u r e . P r e d i c t i v e models r e q u i r e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the p a t t e r n and the p r o c e s s . W h i l e i t i s s u f f i c i e n t i n a d e s c r i p t i v e model to. acknowledge t h a t a r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between two f a c t o r s , a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p must be d e t e r m i n e d i n a p r e d i c t i v e model. Once the d i r e c t i o n of c a u s a t i o n i s e s t a b l i s h e d i t becomes p o s s i b l e , knowing the f u t u r e or e x p e c t e d v a l u e of the 'cause,, t o p r e d i c t the f u t u r e , v a l u e , of the ' e f f e c t ' . C o n d i t i o n a l p r e d i c t i v e models a r e a s i m p l i f i e d v e r s i o n of the p r e d i c t i v e model. The c o n d i t i o n a l p r e d i c t i v e model a t t e m p t s t o measure the outcome t h a t f o l l o w s c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s . Because i t i s assumed t h a t a l l o t h e r exogenous v a r i a b l e s remain the same, both the c o m p l e x i t y and the comprehensiveness of the model i s reduced. 9 The p l a n n i n g model improves the c o n d i t i o n a l p r e d i c t i v e model by e v a l u a t i n g m o d e l l i n g r e s u l t s i n terms of the p l a n n e r ' s g o a l s . The e s s e n t i a l s t e p s i n v o l v e : 1. S p e c i f i c a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e programs or a c t i o n s t h a t might be chosen by the p l a n n e r ; 2. P r e d i c t i o n of the consequences of c h o o s i n g each a l t e r n a t i v e ; 3. S c o r i n g t h e s e consequences a c c o r d i n g t o a m e t r i c of g o a l achievement; and 4. Choosing the a l t e r n a t i v e which y i e l d s the h i g h e s t s c o r e (Lowry,1965,p.159). Both K a i s e r and Lowry agree t h a t c o n d i t i o n a l p r e d i c t i v e models have the g r e a t e s t p o t e n t i a l f o r p l a n n e r s , s i n c e , i n t h e i r v i e w , the p r o f e s s i o n i s more concerned w i t h u n d e r s t a n d i n g f u t u r e c o n d i t i o n s than i n e x p l a i n i n g p a s t or e x i s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s . That i s , the p l a n n e r i s more i n t e r e s t e d i n an i n s t r u m e n t which w i l l t r a c e the consequences of a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n n i n g p o l i c i e s . These o p i n i o n s appeared i n the s i x t i e s d u r i n g a p e r i o d of g r e a t o p t i m i s m about the v a l u e of urban models i n r e s o l v i n g p l a n n i n g q u e s t i o n s . S i n c e t h e n , c o n s i d e r a b l e s k e p t i c i s m has d e v e l o p e d as p l a n n e r s have become i n c r e a s i n g l y aware of the l i m i t a t i o n s of m o d e l l i n g . The e a r l i e r g o a l s of urban models such as p r e d i c t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n of i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s of p l a n n i n g programs and p r o v i s i o n of c o n t r o l and d i r e c t i o n of urban growth, has changed t o s m a l l e r s c a l e impact a n a l y s i s and f o r e c a s t s (Lee,1973). The a b i l i t y of urban models t o p r e d i c t some f u t u r e s t a t e i s h i g h l y q u e s t i o n e d , p r i m a r i l y because of the degree of e r r o r i n v o l v e d . However, A l o n s o (1968) r e g a r d s the d e c r e a s i n g emphasis on p r e d i c t i o n as p o s i t i v e as he p o i n t s t o : much of the good s c i e n t i f i c work which c l a s s i f i e s , d e s c r i b e s e f f i c i e n t l y , g e n e r a l i z e s , merely checks t h a t t h i n g s a r e as we expect them t o be, and i n o t h e r ways improves our comprehension of n a t u r e . Such work w i l l o f t e n r e s u l t i n b e t t e r p r e d i c t i o n , not by i t s d i r e c t 10 use, but by shedding l i g h t on some f a c e t s of the s t r u c t u r e we are c o n s i d e r i n g , w h i l e the p r e d i c t i o n i t s e l f proceeds i n a f a s h i o n which I have c a l l e d m u l l i n g over (p.254). Both A l o n s o (1968) and Lee (1973) argue t h a t more can be e x p l a i n e d u s i n g an average of s e v e r a l s i m p l e models than a s i n g l e comprehensive model. The b e n e f i t s of the s m a l l e r , weaker models a r e t h a t they p r o v i d e d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s of the same problem, they a re s i m p l e r and l e s s c o s t l y t o a n a l y z e , and t h e i r l i m i t a t i o n s a r e u s u a l l y more e a s i l y r e c o g n i z e d . L e v e l Of A g g r e g a t i o n R a i s e r (1966) and Lowry (1965) i d e n t i f y two g e n e r a l l e v e l s -of a g g r e g a t i o n used t o e s t a b l i s h r e l a t i o n s h i p s , the m i c r o and and macro approaches, both of which a r e f a m i l i a r i n the f i e l d of economics. The m i c r o approach d e a l s w i t h the i n d i v i d u a l u n i t and seeks t o e x p l a i n r e l a t i o n s h i p s a t the d i s a g g r e g a t e d l e v e l . R e g u l a r i t i e s may be s u b s e q u e n t l y e s t a b l i s h e d by a g g r e g a t i n g the i n d i v i d u a l outcomes. The advantage of t h i s approach i s t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p s can be more c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d and the v a r i a t i o n between the o b s e r v a t i o n s i s more o b v i o u s . The major d i f f i c u l t y i s t o i n c o r p o r a t e a l l the r e l e v a n t independent v a r i a b l e s which i n f l u e n c e the dependent v a r i a b l e . Even i f i t i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e t o s p e c i f y a l l r e l e v a n t c o n d i t i o n s a f f e c t i n g i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n s , the i n f o r m a t i o n i s o f t e n not a v a i l a b l e , and d e t a i l e d p r i m a r y d a t a c o l l e c t i o n i s r e q u i r e d . The macro approach examines the l i n k a g e s between more aggre g a t e d s e t s of o b s e r v a t i o n s . The major advantages of t h i s l e v e l of r e s e a r c h a re t h a t the da t a i s u s u a l l y more r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e , -more e a s i l y m a n i p u l a t e d and l e s s c o s t l y . A l t h o u g h 11 macro i s w e l l - s u i t e d t o broad e x p l a n a t i o n s of p a t t e r n s and p r o c e s s e s , i t cannot as c l e a r l y i d e n t i f y c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between v a r i a b l e s . As S j o q u i s t e t . a l . e x p l a i n , " A g g r e g a t i n g over many f i r m s or households h i d e s d i f f e r e n c e s i n b e h a v i o r among these u n i t s , s i n c e ' h i g h ' and 'low' v a l u e s a r e averaged o u t " ( p . 2 7 ) . Both approaches a r e a d v i s a b l e i n p l a n n i n g r e s e a r c h . I f macro a n a l y s i s e x h i b i t s s i m i l a r r e s u l t s t o m i c r o a n a l y s i s , a v e r i f i c a t i o n of macro a n a l y s i s would be p r o v i d e d . S i n c e i t i s the s i m p l e s t and l e a s t e x p e n s i v e approach, j u s t i f i c a t i o n would e x i s t f o r i t s c o n t i n u e d use. Treatment Of Time Two approaches t o the t r e a t m e n t of time a r e d i s c u s s e d by Lowry (1965), the c o m p a r a t i v e s t a t i c approach and the r e c u r s i v e dynamic approach. The c o m p a r a t i v e s t a t i c a p proach, used i n a 'one s h o t ' impact a n a l y s i s assumes t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the p r e d i c t o r and dependent v a r i a b l e s a r e e q u i l i b r a t i n g , i . e . t h a t the dependent v a r i a b l e s a d j u s t ' i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y ' t o changes i n the p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s . E q u i l i b r a t i o n i s not a n e c e s s a r y assumption i n v the r e c u r s i v e dynamic approach which f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n more on the p r o c e s s of change than on the outcome of the system. The method r e q u i r e s s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the s t r u c t u r a l parameters and the i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s of the v a r i a b l e s . The model runs i n a s e r i e s of s t e p s , w i t h the r e s u l t s of each s t e p b e i n g used as independent v a r i a b l e s f o r the next s t a g e . Both approaches are u s e f u l . The s t a t i c approach has the advantage of s i m p l i c i t y . The assumptions i n t h i s method can be j u s t i f i e d t o some e x t e n t i f two or more time p e r i o d s a r e a n a l y z e d and t h e i r r e s u l t s compared. The r e c u r s i v e dynamic approach i s a p p r o p r i a t e f o r a more comprehensive a n a l y s i s i n v o l v i n g a c o n s e c u t i v e number of y e a r s but has the d i f f i c u l t t a s k of i n c o r p o r a t i n g c hanging c o n d i t i o n s i n t o the model. As the p o l i t i c a l , e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l c l i m a t e changes over a p e r i o d , many of the i n i t i a l parameters f o r measuring the v a r i a b l e s a l s o change. I f the changes a r e not i n c l u d e d , the model becomes o v e r s i m p l i f i e d . . However, an attempt t o i n c o r p o r a t e new parameters may r e s u l t i n such a complex model t h a t i t cannot be c o n v e n i e n t l y a n a l y z e d . Adequacy Of Data The o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n of a t h e o r e t i c a l model i n v o l v e s compromise. A v a i l a b l e s t a t i s t i c s must be found t o measure a v a r i a b l e c o n c e i v e d i n g e n e r a l terms. O f t e n a t h e o r e t i c a l v a r i a b l e has no o b s e r v a b l e s t a t i s t i c and a proxy must be used. Problems w i t h the d a t a , i n c l u d i n g e r r o r s of measurement and s p e c i f i c a t i o n can s e r i o u s l y undermine the t h e o r e t i c a l r o l e of the v a r i a b l e s i n the model. These l i m i t a t i o n s must be r e c o g n i z e d and documented (Lowry,1965). As a g e n e r a l r u l e , both the q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y of d a t a a v a i l a b l e f o r urban s p a t i a l a n a l y s i s a r e inadequate (Moore & C l a t w o r t h y , 1 9 7 8 ; R i t t e r , 1 9 7 1 ) . P o o rer d a t a l i m i t the t y p e s of a n a l y s i s p o s s i b l e . In o t h e r words, the a n a l y t i c s t y l e has been r e i n f o r c e d by the n a t u r e of a v a i l a b l e d a t a and has slowed the development of a l t e r n a t i v e c o n c e p t u a l approaches t o t h e m o d e l l i n g of urban s t r u c t u r e and change (Moore & 13 C l a t w o r t h y , 1 9 7 8 , p . 2 2 9 ) . A l o n s o (1968) e x p l a i n s why inadequate d a t a l i m i t the c h o i c e of models. The more complex the model, i n the sense of h a v i n g more o p e r a t i o n s of the same k i n d or more ' e x p l o s i v e ' o p e r a t i o n s , such as r a i s i n g t o powers, the more the measurement e r r o r s cumulate as the d a t a churn t h r o u g h the a r i t h m e t i c . . The g a i n s i n c o r r e c t n e s s of s p e c i f i c a t i o n of a more complex model may be o f f s e t by the compounding of measurement e r r o r s (p.250). The r e s e a r c h e r i s f a c e d w i t h s e v e r a l d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the form of the data t o be used. Two i m p o r t a n t d e c i s i o n s i n c l u d e the s e l e c t i o n of p r i m a r y or secondary d a t a and c h o o s i n g between t i m e - s e r i e s or c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l d a t a . P r i m a r y d a t a c o l l e c t i o n r e f e r s t o the p r o c e s s of c o l l e c t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n which d i d not p r e v i o u s l y e x i s t . Surveys and o b s e r v a t i o n a l s t u d i e s a r e examples of methods employed f o r p r i m a r y d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . The advantage of t h i s form i s t h a t the r e s e a r c h e r can more p r e c i s e l y d e f i n e the q u e s t i o n s and thus i s more l i k e l y t o get the e x a c t i n f o r m a t i o n d e s i r e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , the r e s e a r c h e r i s b e t t e r aware of the l i m i t a t i o n s of the d a t a , making i t e a s i e r t o t a i l o r the a n a l y s i s t o s u i t the d a t a . The q u a l i t y of p r i m a r y data depends upon t i m e , money and the s k i l l s of the r e s e a r c h e r and f o r the s e r e a s o n s , does not n e c e s s a r i l y r e s u l t i n improved d a t a . Secondary d a t a i s more commonly used f o r r e s e a r c h , m a i n l y because i t a l r e a d y e x i s t s . Secondary d a t a r e f e r s t o i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d by v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s and which i s a v a i l a b l e f o r g e n e r a l r e s e a r c h p u r p o s e s . The q u a l i t y of the i n f o r m a t i o n u s u a l l y depends upon the agnecy and the l e n g t h of time which the d a t a has been c o l l e c t e d . The advantages i n time and c o s t s a v i n g s a re 14 c l e a r . However, the major d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h secondary d a t a a r e f i r s t , t h a t the i n f o r m a t i o n may not be a v a i l a b l e , second, t h a t the i n f o r m a t i o n may not be i n a s u i t a b l e form f o r the study and t h i r d , i t i s d i f f i c u l t f o r the r e s e a r c h e r t o have an i n t i m a t e u n d e r s t a n d i n g of l i m i t a t i o n s of the d a t a . The r e s e a r c h e r must a l s o s e l e c t between c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l and t i m e - s e r i e s d a t a . C r o s s - s e c t i o n a l study i s the a n a l y s i s of many o b s e r v a t i o n s a t a s i n g l e p o i n t i n time whereas t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s r e f e r s t o the o b s e r v a t i o n of a s i n g l e p o i n t over t i m e . There i s g e n e r a l l y l e s s randomness a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t i m e - s e r i e s d a t a because a s i n g l e u n i t i s more l i k e l y t o make s y s t e m a t i c changes than a s e t of i n d i v i d u a l u n i t s . The c h o i c e of d a t a forms depends upon the type of a n a l y s i s , c o s t and. time c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and the s k i l l of the r e s e a r c h e r . And s i n c e t h e r e a r e l i m i t a t i o n s w i t h a l l forms, t h e s e s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d i n the a n a l y s i s . The f o u r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of urban l a n d use models p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n i l l u s t r a t e some of the problems and d e c i s i o n s a r e s e a r c h e r f a c e s . The model chosen f o r t h i s s t u d y r e p r e s e n t s a compromise between the i d e a l model c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e x p r e s s e d i n the f i r s t p a r t and the a v a i l a b l e d a t a . The most s i g n i f i c a n t o b s e r v a t i o n a r i s i n g from t h i s e x p l o r a t i o n i s the emphasis on u n d e r s t a n d i n g the model chosen. S e v e r a l reasons p r e s e n t e d f o r s e l e c t i n g l e s s comprehensive forms of a n a l y s i s are t h a t they are more e a s i l y u n d e r s t o o d , the d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e not as demanding, t h e r e a r e fewer assumptions t o be made c o n c e r n i n g c hanging c o n d i t i o n s , and t h e r e i s l e s s o p p o r t u n i t y f o r e r r o r t o o c c u r u n n o t i c e d . The review r e v e a l s t h a t t h e r e are l i m i t a t i o n s i n a l l e x i s t i n g models which must be r e c o g n i z e d so t h a t g u i d e l i n e s can be p r o v i d e d f o r i n t e r p r e t i n g the r e s u l t s . As Lee (1973) o b s e r v e s , "By a c h i e v i n g a consensus on a s s u m p t i o n s , opposing p a r t i e s may f i n d they a c t u a l l y agree on c o n c l u s i o n s (p.175). 16 MODELS OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERNS AND PROCESSES A l i t e r a t u r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e d a great, v a r i e t y of t h e o r i e s and e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h i n the f i e l d of urban s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s and p r o c e s s e s . S t u d i e s were re v i e w e d which i d e n t i f i e d f a c t o r s t h a t e x p l a i n the l o c a t i o n of apartment development. These i n c l u d e d s t u d i e s of r e s i d e n t i a l p a t t e r n s , a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e t e r m i n a n t s of r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e , and d e t e r m i n a n t s of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n . A sample of s t u d i e s was s e l e c t e d which seemed t o be s t r e p r e s e n t the r e s e a r c h i n these a r e a s and which appeared t o o f f e r the most u s e f u l g u i d e l i n e s f o r the r e s e a r c h 'attempted h e r e . R e s i d e n t i a l P a t t e r n i n g Concepts Burgess c o n c e n t r i c zone t h e o r y (1925) Burgess (1925) c o n c e i v e s of the arrangement of l a n d uses w i t h i n a c i t y as a s e r i e s of c o n c e n t r i c zones around a c e n t r a l c o r e . F i v e zones a r e d e f i n e d , r a n g i n g from the c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s , c o r e t h r o u g h a s u r r o u n d i n g t r a n s i t i o n a l a r e a t o the h i g h e r income suburban a r e a s . Growth o c c u r s by the ex p a n s i o n of the i n n e r zones outward, each zone i n v a d i n g the ar e a of the a d j a c e n t o u t e r zone. 17 Hoyts s e c t o r t h e o r y (1939) Hoyt (1939) d e v e l o p e d an a l t e r n a t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r e and growth t h e o r y . He p o s t u l a t e s t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l development o c c u r s i n wedge shaped s e c t o r s from the c e n t r a l c o r e , u s u a l l y a l o n g a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a x i s . Development w i t h i n each s e c t o r i s s i m i l a r , a t t r a c t i n g a d d i t i o n a l s i m i l a r growth, w i t h a r e s u l t a n t outward m i g r a t i o n . Theory of m u l t i p l e n u c l e i (1945) Both the c o n c e n t r i c zone t h e o r y and the s e c t o r t h e o r y were c r i t i c i z e d f o r t h e i r emphasis on a s i n g l e c i t y c e n t r e . To overcome t h i s weakness, H a r r i s and Ullman (1945) suggested t h a t l a n d use p a t t e r n s d e v e l o p around s e v e r a l n u c l e i . O f t e n t h e s e n u c l e i have s e p a r a t e f u n c t i o n s such as the b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t , l i g h t m a n u f a c t u r i n g and w h o l e s a l e d i s t r i c t and r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i c t s . The p a t t e r n of growth i s a r e s u l t of a c o m b i n a t i o n of economic f o r c e s such as the r equirement of c e r t a i n a c t i v i t i e s f o r c o n v e n i e n t s p e c i a l i z e d s e r v i c e s , the i n t e r d e p e n d e n c y of s i m i l a r s e r v i c e s and the v a l u e of s u r r o u n d i n g l a n d . The b a s i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e s e t h r e e t h e o r i e s i s t h e i r s i m p l i s t i c d e s c r i p t i v e n a t u r e . As H a r r i s and Ullman o b s e r v e , the assumption of one c e n t r a l c i t y c o r e i s an o v e r s i m p l i f i c a t i o n of urban p a t t e r n s . A f u r t h e r q u e s t i o n a b l e assumption p r e s e n t i n a l l t h r e e t h e o r i e s i s the e f f e c t s of age and d e t e r i o r a t i o n (Bourne,1967). For example, t h e s e t h e o r i e s suggest t h a t the w e a l t h y are on the p e r i p h e r y of the c i t y because t h a t i s o b v i o u s l y the o n l y a r e a where new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s 18 p o s s i b l e . They were pushed t h e r e , i t i s argued, by the a g i n g and o b s o l e s c e n c e of e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s , which a re i n t u r n , abandoned t o groups of lower income (p.2 1 ) . A f i n a l comment on the s e models i s t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l l a n d use change i s seen as " d i r e c t l y dependent upon one or more s p a t i a l d i m e n s i o n s " ( K a i s e r , 1 9 6 6 , p . 2 8 ) . T h e i r a u t h o r s o f f e r deeper e x p l a n a t i o n s of the p a t t e r n s of r e s i d e n t i a l growth but o n l y i n g e n e r a l terms t h a t a r e not i n t e g r a l t o t h e i r t h e o r i e s . A c c e s s i b i l i t y Models The b a s i s f o r much e x i s t i n g a n a l y s i s on l o c a t i o n o r i g i n a t e s w i t h the work of Von Thunen (1826) who was i n t e r e s t e d i n the i n f l u e n c e of market p r i c e and. t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s on l a n d r e n t . H i s p r o p o s i t i o n i s t h a t l a n d r e n t s a re d e t e r m i n e d by market p r i c e l e s s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s , assuming e q u a l l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y , i n t h a t a g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e from the market p l a c e i n c r e a s e s the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and l o w e r s the l a n d v a l u e . Three w e l l - r e g a r d e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y - b a s e d models of urban s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s , A l o n s o ( i 9 6 0 ) , K a i n (1961), and Lowry (1964), a r e r e f i n e m e n t s of Von Thunen's e a r l y t h e o r y . A l o n s o (1960) A l o n s o p o s t u l a t e d t h a t urban f i r m s choose a l o c a t i o n a l b i d r e n t c u r v e which maximizes p r o f i t s w h i l e h ouseholds s e l e c t t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n u s i n g two c r i t e r i a , c o s t s and commuting t i m e . A consumer, g i v e n h i s income and p a t t e r n of t a s t e s , w i l l seek t o b a l a n c e the c o s t s and bot h e r of commuting a g a i n s t the advantages of cheaper l a n d w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e from the c e n t r e of the c i t y and the 19 s a t i s f a c t i o n of more space f o r l i v i n g (p.157). The poor l o c a t e i n c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s on e x p e n s i v e l a n d because they can a f f o r d o n l y s m a l l amounts of l a n d , and the d i f f e r e n c e i n p r i c e between a s m a l l amount of l a n d i n the c i t y c e n t r e and an o u t l y i n g a r e a i s not g r e a t enough t o c o v e r the c o s t and i n c o n v e n i e n c e of commuting. S a t i s f a c t i o n or space p r e f e r e n c e t h u s becomes an a d d i t i o n a l d e t e r m i n a n t of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n . K a i n (1961) K a i n ' s c e n t r a l h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t the p a t t e r n of r e s i d e n t i a l development i s a f u n c t i o n of a h o u s e h o l d ' s s u b s t i t u t i o n of j o u r n e y - t o - w o r k e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r s i t e e x p e n d i t u r e s . Assumptions of t h i s model are t h a t : the r a t e of s u b s t i t u t i o n depends upon the h ousehold's p r e f e r e n c e f o r low d e n s i t y ; the c o s t of the j o u r n e y t o work i s a s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g f u n c t i o n of the household's d i s t a n c e from i t s p l a c e of employment; s i t e r e n t s decrease w i t h d i s t a n c e from a household's workplace and are h i g h o n l y when t h e r e are numerous employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s nearby; t h e r e i s a f i x e d w o rkplace f o r a l l ; and f i n a l l y , o u t s i d e r e s i d e n t i a l space ( l a n d ) i s not an i n f e r i o r good so t h a t i f a l l o t h e r t h i n g s are e q u a l , as income i n c r e a s e s , a household's consumption of r e s i d e n t i a l space i n c r e a s e s (Stegman,1969,p.23). S e l e c t i o n of l o c a t i o n s and q u a l i t y of space i s c o n s t r a i n e d by h o usehold incomes and d w e l l i n g u n i t p r i c e . L o c a t i o n r e n t i s a f u n c t i o n of distance., from the c e n t r a l workplace and t h u s , assuming a c o n s t a n t l e v e l of a m e n t i e s , s i t e r e n t s d e c r e a s e as t h e i r d i s t a n c e from the CBD i n c r e a s e s . The r e s u l t i n g s p a t i a l p a t t e r n i s a s e r i e s of c o n c e n t r i c r i n g s , as proposed by B u r g e s s , w i t h each r i n g r e p r e s e n t i n g d i f f e r e n t household incomes, r e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t i e s and space consumption. 20 Lowry (1964) In Lowry's Model of M e t r o p o l i s (-1 964), r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n i s d e t ermined by a " w i l l i n g n e s s t o t r a v e l " f u n c t i o n . Three broad a r e a s of a c t i v i t y are d i s t i n g u i s h e d : b a s i c s e c t o r employment, s e r v i c e employment and the household s e c t o r . Given the d i s t r i b u t i o n of b a s i c s e c t o r employment w i t h i n zones of the c i t y and r e s i d e n t i a l p a rameters, Lowry's model a l l o c a t e s workers' r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n on the b a s i s of a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o employment. S e r v i c e s e c t o r employment i s g e n e r a t e d g i v e n the a l l o c a t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n d e r i v e d i n the f i r s t i t e r a t i o n of the model. S e r v i c e s e c t o r workers are then a l l o c a t e d r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n i n the second i t e r a t i o n , u s i n g the same d e t e r m i n a n t s as i n the f i r s t i t e r a t i o n . The p r o c e s s i s r e p e a t e d u n t i l the system s t a b i l i z e s and t h e r e i s l i t t l e change between i t e r a t i o n s . The major assumption of a l l t h r e e a c c e s s i b i l i t y models i s t h a t p r o x i m i t y t o employment i s the key f a c t o r i n r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s . W h i l e t h i s assumption s i m p l i f i e s the model c o n s i d e r a b l y , e x p l a i n i n g i t s p o p u l a r i t y and f r e q u e n t use ( F r e dland,1974; Stegman,1969), the a n a l y s i s i s based upon " e m p i r i c a l l y o bserved r e g u l a r i t i e s r a t h e r than b e h a v i o u r a l a n a l y s i s " ( Fredland,1974,p.199). Stegman (1969) c r i t i c i z e s t h e s e models, s a y i n g t h a t t h e y : tend t o c o n f u s e the b e h a v i o r of the urban l a n d market w i t h t h a t of the urban l a n d consumer, even though the two a r e q u i t e d i s t i n c t . D e t a i l i n g the f o r c e s i n f l u e n c i n g urban s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e and h o u s i n g s t o c k does not d e s c r i b e the b e h a v i o r of h o u s i n g consumers -whose b e h a v i o r i s c o n s t r a i n e d but not d e t e r m i n e d by the l a n d market ( p . 2 5 ) . 21 The i m p l i c a t i o n of F r e d l a n d ' s and Stegman's r e s e a r c h i s t h a t more emphasis i s needed i n u n d e r s t a n d i n g consumer and d e v e l o p e r r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s a t the i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l . More d e t a i l e d r e s e a r c h a t t h i s m i c r o l e v e l might improve the aggregated macro s c a l e models. A study of i n d i v i d u a l r e s i d e n t i a l u n i t s would l i k e l y suggest t h a t l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s are based upon a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r s than s i m p l y a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o employment. These a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r s c o u l d be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the more ag g r e g a t e d model and thus b e t t e r r e f l e c t i n d i v i d u a l b e h a v i o r . D e t e r m i n a n t s O f . R e s i d e n t i a l P r o p e r t y P r i c e V a r i o u s models examining the d e t e r m i n a n t s of r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e are i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n t o a s c e r t a i n the h o u s i n g a t t r i b u t e s which are f r e q u e n t l y i n c l u d e d i n a n a l y s e s of r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e . R e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e has been i n c o r p o r a t e d as a d e t e r m i n a n t of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n i n s e v e r a l s t u d i e s (Bourne,1973; G o l d b e r g & U l i n d e r , 1 9 7 5 ) , as proxy f o r v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d i n g s o c i a l a m e n i t i e s and a c c e s s i b i l i t y . I f r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e i s used as a d e t e r m i n a n t of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o u n d e r s t a n d what the v a r i a b l e i s measuring so t h a t c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e s are not i n c o r p o r a t e d more than once i n t o the a n a l y s i s . Land and h o u s i n g are the two e s s e n t i a l e l ements; however, the assumed r e l a t i o n s h i p between the two elements v a r i e s depending upon the model p r e s e n t e d . 22 Brigham (1965) Brigham sought t o un d e r s t a n d the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the s e l e c t i o n of l a n d . He r e c o g n i z e d l a n d p r i c e s as b e i n g s i g n i f i c a n t , and e m p i r i c a l l y i n v e s t i g a t e d the d e t e r m i n a n t s . H i s s i m p l e t h e o r e t i c a l model assumes t h a t : the v a l u e of a p a r t i c u l a r urban a r e a s i t e i s f u n c t i o n a l l y r e l a t e d t o i t s a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o economic a c t i v i t i e s , t o i t s a m e n i t i e s , t o i t s topography, • t o i t s p r e s e n t and f u t u r e use and t o c e r t a i n h i s t o r i c a l f a c t o r s t h a t a f f e c t i t s u t i l i z a t i o n (p.325). The r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s a r e d i s a p p o i n t i n g . Of the 28 e q u a t i o n s r e c o r d e d , o n l y the a c c e s s i b i l i t y f u n c t i o n has a s t a t i s t i c a l l e v e l h i g h enough t o be s i g n i f i c a n t and even t h i s i s not a c l e a r p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p . A l t h o u g h the r e s u l t s of the study a re i n c o n c l u s i v e , they i n d i c a t e some of the.problems encountered, i n such an u n d e r t a k i n g . One of the d i f f i c u l t i e s .is the c h o i c e of v a r i a b l e s . A c c e s s i b i l i t y , as measured by d i s t a n c e from the CBD, remains s t a t i c even though l a n d v a l u e s a r e changing and t h i s v a r i a b l e i s c o n s e q u e n t l y u s e l e s s f o r any p r o j e c t i o n p u r p o s e s . Another problem i s the n a t u r e of the da t a sample. Brigham l i m i t e d h i s a n a l y s i s t o s i n g l e - f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l s i t e s . Even i f the r e s u l t s had been s a t i s f a c t o r y , the s i z e and type of t h e . sample r e s t r i c t s any broad g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . S i n c e i t was not i n d i c a t e d whether the d e t e r m i n a n t s f o r s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development a r e the same f o r a l t e r n a t i v e t y p e s of r e s i d e n t i a l development, the c o n c l u s i o n s cannot be extended beyond s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l s i t e s . 23 C r e c i n e , D a v i s and J a c k s o n (1967) C r e c i n e , D a v i s and Jackson produced the f i r s t study of note which atte m p t s t o i s o l a t e the e f f e c t of m u n i c i p a l z o n i n g on the v a l u e of s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s . T h e i r a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n s the n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s or e x t e r n a l d i s e c o n o m i e s which 'supposedly' e x i s t i n the urban l a n d market and the r o l e of z o n i n g i n p r e v e n t i n g or m i t i g a t i n g t h e i r i n f l u e n c e . S i n c e t h i s i s the o n l y s p e c i f i e d f u n c t i o n of z o n i n g , the a u t h o r s assume t h a t the z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e s s h o u l d r e f l e c t t h e s e e x t e r n a l i t i e s . In o r d e r t o a s s e s s the e f f e c t of e x t e r n a l i t i e s and hence . m u n i c i p a l z o n i n g , a l l r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s d e t e r m i n i n g l a n d v a l u e must be c o n s i d e r e d . The model of s i t e v a l u e used i n the study i s Brigham's, i n which s i t e v a l u e i s a f u n c t i o n of a c c e s s i b i l i t y , a m e n i t i e s , topography, p r e s e n t and f u t u r e l a n d uses and h i s t o r i c a l f a c t o r s . The c e n t r a l h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t by h o l d i n g a l l o t h e r f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g s i t e v a l u e c o n s t a n t , the e f f e c t of the a m e n i t i e s and e x t e r n a l i t i e s can be i d e n t i f i e d . The methodology s u g g e s t s t h a t p r o p e r t y v a l u e s s h o u l d f a l l i n the i n c r e a s e d presence of an e x t e r n a l diseconomy. The r e s u l t s of the r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s show t h a t both the magnitude and d i r e c t i o n of the e f f e c t of the independent v a r i a b l e s ( a m e n i t i e s ) v a r y a c r o s s the c i t y : The f a c t t h a t the -signs of e s t i m a t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s of a g i v e n independent v a r i a b l e d i f f e r a c r o s s d i s t r i c t and t r a c t s u g gests t h a t the use which causes an e x t e r n a l diseconomy i n one d i s t r i c t might cause an e x t e r n a l economy i n a n o t h e r ( C r e c i n e , 1 9 6 7 , p . 8 2 ) . The t e n t a t i v e c o n c l u s i o n of the study i s t h a t the urban l a n d market i s not c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e and 24 e x t e r n a l i t i e s and t h a t the e x i s t i n g market mechanisms a l r e a d y e l i m i n a t e e x t e r n a l i t i e s . The example g i v e n i s the g l u e f a c t o r y which i s p o s t u l a t e d t o have a n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e on s u r r o u n d i n g p r o p e r t y v a l u e s i f t h e r e are n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s of the f a c t o r y . The l i m i t a t i o n s of the s t u d y r e l a t e m o s t l y t o the l a c k of adequate d a t a . Data on b u i l d i n g h e i g h t , l o t s i z e and y a r d a r e a , which a r e n o r m a l l y i n c l u d e d i n a z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e t o r e s t r i c t b u i l d i n g which might lower p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , were not a v a i l a b l e . Hence the d a t a o n l y r e f l e c t e x t e r n a l i t i e s of a c t u a l l a n d use. In a d d i t i o n , no d a t a were a v a i l a b l e d e s c r i b i n g age, improvements or s t r u c t u r a l t y p e s of the l a n d . F i n a l l y , d a t a were l i m i t e d t o c i t y b l o c k s . T h i s l i m i t a t i o n p r e v e n t e d the i n c l u s i o n of e x t e r n a l i t i e s e x i s t i n g a c r o s s the s t r e e t or on a l a r g e r neighbourhood s c a l e . Pennance (1976) Pennance adds a hew d i m e n s i o n t o the u n d e r s t a n d i n g of how l a n d p r i c e s a r e determined by u s i n g a m a c r o - a n a l y t i c approach and d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between s h o r t and l o n g term c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . He e x p l a i n s the urban l a n d market i n terms of c l a s s i c a l economics: The p r i c e of b u i l d i n g l a n d i s determined by the p r i c e of houses. The p r i c e of houses i s not d e t e r m i n e d by the p r i c e of l a n d , d e s p i t e a l l appearances and c l a i m s t o the c o n t r a r y (p.41). The p r o c e s s from an i n d i v i d u a l ' s p o i n t of view i s as f o l l o w s : The d e v e l o p e r f i r s t s i z e s up the p r o s p e c t s of a market f o r h i s completed development. He t u r n s t o the l e v e l of p r i c e s a t which e x i s t i n g h o u s i n g of a comparable k i n d a r e c h a n g i n g hands f o r i n f o r m a t i o n on which t o base h i s e x p e c t a t i o n s . He a l s o has i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g development c o s t s ( i n c l u d i n g a reward f o r 25 h i s own e f f o r t and r i s k ) . The d i f f e r e n c e between the two i s the r e s i d u a l v a l u e which i s the maximum he can a f f o r d t o pay f o r the s i t e he has i n mind, w i t h o u t s q u e e z i n g h i s own d e v e l o p e r ' s margin ( p . 3 9 ) . In t h i s a n a l y s i s , i t i s aggregate demand which f i r s t d e t e r m i n e s the p r i c e of h o u s i n g , and t h e n , r e s i d u a l l y , the p r i c e of l a n d . W i t h more than one d e v e l o p e r , l a n d w i l l g e n e r a l l y be a c q u i r e d by the h i g h e s t b i d d e r . The d i m e n s i o n added by Pennance's argument i s v a l u a b l e but demonstrates the weaknesses i n h e r e n t i n c l a s s i c a l economic t h e o r y . Pennance assumes t h a t h o u s i n g i s a homogeneous commodity i n a p e r f e c t l y c o m p e t i t i v e market. Because h o u s i n g i s nonhomogeneous--housing v a r i e s tremendously i n terms of t y p e , s i z e and q u a l i t y — h o u s i n g p r i c e s r e f l e c t more than s i m p l y aggregate demand. Fu r t h e r m o r e , h o u s i n g p r i c e s a r e a l s o a f f e c t e d by the su p p l y s i d e of the market, s i n c e i n r e a l i t y , the h o u s i n g market does not respond i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y t o changes i n demand. Sagalyn (1975) Sagalyn f o c u s e s on the r o l e of z o n i n g i n i t s impact on the p r i c e of s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s . Zoning i s d e f i n e d as a means of " p r e s e r v i n g the community s t a t u s quo and of a v o i d i n g c e r t a i n t y p e s of r e s i d e n t i a l growth" ( p . 1 ) . E x c l u s i o n a r y l a n d use c o n t r o l s such as l o t s i z e , s e t b a c k and d e n s i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s " i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h r i s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s a re seen as s u b s t a n t i a l l y r e d u c i n g the a v a i l a b i l i t y of low and moderate income h o u s i n g i n the a r e a s of suburban employment growth" ( p . D . The a n a l y s i s uses a r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n and has the 26 f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s : 1. A s s e s s the impact of each independent v a r i a b l e upon the s e l l i n g p r i c e of a new house; 2. I s o l a t e those independent v a r i a b l e s t h a t have the g r e a t e s t a b i l i t y t o " e x p l a i n " v a r i a t i o n i n s e l l i n g p r i c e throughout the s t a t e or c o u n t y ; 3. E v a l u a t e the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between s e v e r a l development c o n t r o l s ( p . 2 1 ) . Twenty independent v a r i a b l e s a r e i n c l u d e d i n the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n t o d e s c r i b e : A. P u b l i c p o l i c y ' s i n c o r p o r a t i o n of e x c l u s i o n a r y c o n t r o l s commonly used t o r e s t r i c t new r e s i d e n t i a l growth; B. New house c o n s t r u c t i o n : p h y s i c a l f e a t u r e s and amenties; C. S t r o n g d e t e r m i n a n t s of the m a r k e t p l a c e ; D. The b u i l d e r ' s s c a l e of o p e r a t i o n ( p . 3 4 ) . The r e s u l t s of the study i n d i c a t e t h a t the most s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e a f f e c t i n g the s e l l i n g p r i c e of new h o u s i n g i s the s i z e of the house. R e g u l a t i o n s r e q u i r i n g a minimum l i v a b l e f l o o r a r e a would thus have an i m p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e on s e l l i n g p r i c e . Two o t h e r v a r i a b l e s which d i s p l a y s i g n i f i c a n t r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s and which a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by p u b l i c p o l i c y a r e l o t s i z e and l o t f r o n t a g e . The f i n d i n g s a l s o show however, t h a t s o cio-economic s t a t u s of the community i s a more i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t of p r i c e than any of the p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s . S a g a l y n c o n c l u d e s t h a t : changes i n z o n i n g p o l i c i e s making l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r h i g h e r d e n s i t y s i n g l e - f a m i l y u n i t s would not be a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n t o g e n e r a t e h o u s i n g f o r low and moderate income f a m i l i e s . However, changes i n the major z o n i n g p r a c t i c e s would appear t o e n l a r g e the e f f e c t i v e h o u s i n g market c o n s i d e r a b l y p r o v i d e d t h a t b u i l d e r s made c o n c o m i t a n t r e d u c t i o n s i n the s i z e and a m e n i t i e s of the h o u s i n g o f f e r e d ( p . 6 9 ) . T h i s study p r o v i d e s a v a l u a b l e e m p i r i c a l base. Not o n l y i s the r e s e a r c h c a r e f u l l y e x p l a i n e d and a n a l y z e d , i t a l s o meets the c r i t e r i a o u t l i n e d a t the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the paper. 27 Mark (1980) In an e x a m i n a t i o n of the v a l u e of m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i n i m p r o v i n g the s t a n d a r d assessment p r o c e s s , Mark emphasizes the importance of s e l e c t i n g the v a r i a b l e s t o be i n c l u d e d i n the e q u a t i o n . O f t e n i n a p p r a i s a l s t u d i e s o n l y s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n as d e t e r m i n a n t s of h o u s i n g p r i c e . Mark p o i n t s out t h a t the economic l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t s s e v e r a l a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d i n g "neighbourhood a c c e s s and p u b l i c s e r v i c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , as w e l l as o t h e r e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s such as v i e w , n o i s e and a i r p o l l u t i o n " ( p . 9 ) . The d i f f i c u l t y of inadequate s p e c i f i c a t i o n of some r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s i s d i s c u s s e d ; however i t i s s t r e s s e d t h a t by i g n o r i n g t h e s e v a r i a b l e s , the c o e f f i c i e n t s of the i n c l u d e d v a r i a b l e s may be b i a s e d i f they a r e c o r r e l a t e d w i t h the e x c l u d e d v a r i a b l e s . No measures of z o n i n g p o l i c y a re i n c l u d e d as d e t e r m i n a n t s of r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e i n Mark's suggested r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . Each of the s t u d i e s r e v i e w e d has a d i f f e r i n g h y p o t h e s i s as to the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g r e s i d e n t i a l p r i c e . One i d e a p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s tudy i s Pennance's t h e o r y t h a t h o u s i n g p r i c e s a r e an i n d i c a t o r of demand. H i s argument i s t h a t demand f o r h o u s i n g , g i v e n s u p p l y , d e t e r m i n e s the p r i c e of h o u s i n g and r e s i d u a l l y , the p r i c e of l a n d . I f t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s a p p l i c a b l e i n more than a t h e o r e t i c a l sense, then h o u s i n g p r i c e s can be used t o i n d i c a t e r e l a t i v e demand f o r h o u s i n g . 28 D e t e r m i n a n t s Of R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n I n t e r e s t i n the r e s i d e n t i a l development p r o c e s s expanded s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n the s i x t i e s when t h e r e was c o n s i d e r a b l e c oncern f o c u s e d on i n c r e a s i n g r e s i d e n t i a l development, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the form of s p r a w l and h i g h r i s e s . The f o c u s has s i n c e changed from a g e n e r a l i n t e r e s t i n the development p r o c e s s t o a more s p e c i f i c u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the r o l e of government r e g u l a t i o n s . The f i v e s t u d i e s examined i n t h i s s e c t i o n r e f l e c t t h i s c h anging c o n c e r n . Chapin and Weiss (1965) The Chapin and Weiss model, one of the e a r l i e r models of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n i n a v e r y s i m p l i f i e d form " s i m u l a t e s the t r a n s a c t i o n s i n the m a r k e t p l a c e w i t h i n c o n s t r a i n t s s e t by c i t y h a l l t o e f f e c t a d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l development" ( p . 5 ) . P u b l i c and p r i v a t e l o c a t i o n and development d e c i s i o n s a r e c l a s s i f i e d e i t h e r as " p r i m i n g a c t i o n s " ( d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t i n g the l o c a t i o n of s i g n i f i c a n t development such as a freeway, shopping c e n t r e , or s c h o o l system) and "secondary a c t i o n s " ( d e c i s i o n s p r o d u c i n g r e s i d e n t i a l development). The p r i m i n g a c t i o n s a r e exogenously d e t e r m i n e d and the s e independent v a r i a b l e s a re i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the model t o s i m u l a t e the secondary a c t i o n . The f o u r p r i m i n g a c t i o n s used t o e x p l a i n r e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t y and a r e a of l a n d o c c u p i e d by r e s i d e n t i a l uses are a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o work a r e a s , a v a i l a b i l i t y of p u b l i c sewerage, a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o n e a r e s t major s t r e e t , and a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o n e a r e s t major s c h o o l . The o p e r a t i o n of the model i n v o l v e s the f i v e f o l l o w i n g s t e p s : 29 An i n v e n t o r y of a v a i l a b l e and p o t e n t i a l l y d e v e l o p a b l e r e s i d e n t i a l l a n d i s coded a c c o r d i n g t o use c a p a b i l i t y ; A measure of r e l a t i v e v a l u e i s a s s i g n e d t o each d e v e l o p a b l e u n i t t o p r o v i d e an e s t i m a t e of r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s ; E s t i m a t e d v a l u e s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l l a n d a re m o d i f i e d through the impact of the p r i m i n g a c t i o n s and r e g r e s s i o n coef f i c i e n t s ; The e s t i m a t e d v a l u e s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l l a n d a r e f u r t h e r a d j u s t e d t o account f o r the c o n s t r a i n t s imposed by z o n i n g r e g u l a t i o n s ; F i n a l l y , new h o u s i n g expected d u r i n g the growth p e r i o d i s a l l o c a t e d on a p r o b a b i l i s t i c b a s i s . The model appears t o be a r e a s o n a b l y good p r e d i c t o r of r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n d e s p i t e i t s many weaknesses. R i c h a r d S. Bolan (1965) d e s c r i b e s two d i f f i c u l t i e s of the model: The model i t s e l f i s o n l y i n an embryonic stage and c o n s e q u e n t l y i t i s t o o e a r l y t o e v a l u a t e f u l l y i t s p o t e n t i a l u s e f u l n e s s . There a r e some key ' w e i g h t i n g ' p r o c e d u r e s which a r e not f u l l y e x p l a i n e d and which, i n some i n s t a n c e s , appear q u i t e a r b i t r a r y . The t e c h n i q u e of randomly d i s t r i b u t i n g f u t u r e d w e l l i n g s i s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d enough i f one i s w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t the assumption t h a t p e o p l e do indeed choose t h e i r p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e i n random f a s h i o n c o n d i t i o n e d o n l y by the jo u r n e y t o work and s c h o o l , the presence of a sewer l i n e , and l a n d v a l u e s (p177). Bolan c o n c l u d e s t h a t the r e s e a r c h c o u l d be more u s e f u l i f i t was d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l s m a l l e r e x a m i n a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g a n a l y s i s of the b a s i c h y p o t h e s i s which i s t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l 2. 3. 4. l o c a t i o n can be e x p l a i n e d by f o u r ' p r i m i n g a c t i o n s ' . 30 K a i s e r (1968) T h i s model i s i n t e n d e d f o r use by ; p l a n n e r s i n p r e d i c t i n g the l o c a t i o n of new s i n g l e - f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l s u b d i v i s i o n s . In h i s producer model, K a i s e r h y p o t h e s i z e s t h a t d e v e l o p e r s ' l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s are based on t h r e e f a c t o r s : s i t e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the development f i r m and c o n t e x t u a l f a c t o r s . The f i r s t f a c t o r p l a y s the c r i t i c a l r o l e i n K a i s e r ' s model, w i t h the second and t h i r d f a c t o r s r e m a i n i n g secondary and o n l y m o d i f y i n g the b a s i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The r e s u l t s of the e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t : s o c i o-economic rank of the s i t e i s the s i n g l e s i t e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c most a b l e t o d i s t i n g u i s h the type of s i t e s where s u b d i v i s i o n o c c u r s . . . L e v e l of z o n i n g , d i s t a n c e t o t h e n e a r e s t major s t r e e t and a v a i l a b i l i t y of p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s are next most imp o r t a n t ( p . 1 7 ) . C o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n s , the f i n d i n g s show t h a t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , of the development f i r m had a s u b s t a n t i a l .... i n f l u e n c e on l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s . D i f f e r e n c e s i n time p e r i o d s o f . t h e study were v e r y s l i g h t . Bourne and B e r r i d q e (1973) Bourne examines the l o c a t i o n of apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n w i t h i n the c i t y of T o r o n t o . An e a r l i e r model h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t the d i s t r i b u t i o n of apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n was a f u n c t i o n of f o u r i n d i c e s : 1. The c h a r a c t e r and d i s t r i b u t i o n of the e x i s t i n g s t o c k of b u i l d i n g s ; 2. The a c c e s s i b i l i t y of d i f f e r e n t neighbourhoods t o v a r i o u s nodes of i n t e r e s t and employment i n the urban f a b r i c , such as the c i t y c e n t r e , as w e l l as p r o x i m i t y t o mass t r a n s i t ; 3. The q u a l i t y of the l o c a l environment, both p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l ; and 4. S i t e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the c o s t and ease of l a n d assembly (p.405). 31 The f i r s t index p r o v i d e s a measure of "the p r i n c i p l e of the dominance of the e x i s t i n g s t o c k i n d e t e r m i n i n g d e c i s i o n s on new c o n s t r u c t i o n " ( p . 4 0 5 ) . The c h a r a c t e r and d i s t r i b u t i o n of the e x i s t i n g . • s t o c k i s a l s o h y p o t h e s i z e d t o i n f l u e n c e new c o n s t r u c t i o n because of the d i f f i c u l t y of l a n d assembly. An a d d i t i o n a l index was i n c l u d e d i n a l a t t e r model which measures i n s t i t u t i o n a l ' and p o l i c y c o n s t r a i n t s ; . The t h r e e o p e r a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s used i n the r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i n c l u d e median z o n i n g , maximum z o n i n g and p e r c e n t a g e of h i g h d e n s i t y z o n i n g . Two ten year time p e r i o d s 1952-62 and 1963-71 were examined and compared, a l t h o u g h s e v e r a l independent v a r i a b l e s were not a v a i l a b l e f o r the f i r s t time p e r i o d . The i n f o r m a t i o n was a g g r e g a t e d to. the 134 census a r e a s i n T o r o n t o . A s t e p - w i s e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a s s e s s e d the independent c o n t r i b u t i o n s of the independent v a r i a b l e s w i t h the dependent v a r i a b l e s b e i n g the t o t a l l a n d a r e a i n apartment use. The o p t i m a l e q u a t i o n f o r 1953-62 e x p r e s s e s the t o t a l l a n d a r e a i n apartments as b e i n g a f u n c t i o n of the net r e s i d e n t i a l a c r e a g e , the p e r c e n t a g e of apartment u n i t s by census a r e a , p r o x i m i t y t o the subway and d i s t a n c e t o p o p u l a t i o n c e n t r e . The a b i l i t y of t h e s e independent v a r i a b l e s t o e x p l a i n the v a r i a t i o n i n apartment development d e c l i n e d from 36 per c e n t i n 1951-62 t o 15 per cent i n 1962-71. The o p t i m a l e q u a t i o n i n 1962-71 e x p l a i n i n g apartment development i n terms of the number of b l o c k s i n c l u d e d the p e r c e n t a g e of h i g h - d e n s i t y z o n i n g , p r o x i m i t y t o the subway, the p e r c e n t a g e of vacant a c r e a g e , the p e r c e n t a g e of apartment u n i t s , 32 the p e r c e n t a g e of d w e l l i n g s o l d e r than 1920 and the number of d w e l l i n g s . The combined e x p l a n a t o r y power of these independent v a r i a b l e s i s 39 per c e n t . The z o n i n g v a r i a b l e e x p r e s s e s "the p o t e n t i a l a v a i l a b i l i t y of apartment l a n d w i t h i n the t r a c t by the p r o p o r t i o n of the t r a c t a r e a zoned at a f l o o r space index g r e a t e r than one" (p.408). The reason t h a t p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y of apartment l a n d cannot be measured by the amount of apartment zoned l a n d i s because To r o n t o keeps i t s m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s underzoned. Rezoning a t the i n i t i a t i v e of d e v e l o p e r s was f r e q u e n t and o c c u r r e d where t h e r e was l e a s t r e s i s t e n c e . T h i s e x p l a i n s why apartment development remained c o n c e n t r a t e d . N e i t h e r r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , can e x p l a i n much of the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of apartment development. However, the g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n of t h i s study i s the e x a m i n a t i o n of the changes i n the r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e of the independent v a r i a b l e s over t i m e . Bourne's q u e s t i o n s about apartment development a r e s i m i l a r t o those asked i n t h i s s tudy a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s l i t t l e emphasis on the e f f e c t s of p o l i c y v a r i a b l e s . The r e s u l t s of Bourne's study were p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l i n the s e l e c t i o n of independent v a r i a b l e s . Moore (1972) Moore examines f a c t o r s used i n d e v e l o p e r s ' l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , and i n p a r t i c u l a r the i n f l u e n c e of development p o t e n t i a l . The l o c a t i o n d e t e r m i n a n t s a r e o b t a i n e d from a survey of d e v e l o p e r s i n the G r e a t e r Vancouver a r e a . Survey r e s u l t s 33 indicate the following variables in decreasing order of importance as being the developers' c r i t e r i a for location a l decision-making, proper zoning, access to trunk sewers, price of land, a v a i l a b l i l i t y of developable land, proximity to schools, proximity to major roads, proximity to major shopping areas and size of s i t e . Each of these determinants except access to trunk sewers, nearness to schools and nearness to major shopping areas are regressed in separate equations against the number of completions of apartments and single-family housing. Moore's results indicate that: Total housing potential and unused housing potential (as defined by capacity and unused capacity of zoning) both explain between forty and s i x t y - f i v e per cent of the variation in the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of housing completions. Land price and travel time from the central business d i s t r i c t were not s i g n i f i c a n t explanatory variables (p.97). Many of the results of thi s analysis are questionable because of the serious problems with the data. Differences in c l a s s i f i c a t i o n systems in the various municipalities and problems with the questionnaire made i t impossible to distinguish between single and multiple dwelling r e s i d e n t i a l development. The calculation of development potential in units per acre was very rough and " l e f t some doubt as to the accuracy of the entire land use data and of the calculated densities of use" (p.75). A further problem with the study occurs in the solution method. Rather than incorporating a l l the independent variables into one multiple regression equation, each variable i s regressed i n d i v i d u a l l y . Unless the variables are completely uncorrelated with each other, which i s unlikely in thi s kind of 34 a n a l y s i s , the c o e f f i c i e n t s of each i n c l u d e d v a r i a b l e w i l l be more h e a v i l y weighted than i s a c t u a l l y the c a s e . S i n c e a c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x of the independent v a r i a b l e s i s not p r o v i d e d , t h e r e i s no way of knowing t o what e x t e n t the r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s a r e b i a s e d . The study i s v a l u a b l e , d e s p i t e i t s . s h o r t c o m i n g s , as i t o u t l i n e s some of the problems e n c o u n t e r e d i n such a study and how t o d e a l w i t h them. E s p e c i a l l y u s e f u l i s the f a c t t h a t the study i s of the Vancouver r e g i o n , a s i m i l a r i t y t o the p r e s e n t s t u d y . G o l d b e r g and U l i n d e r T l 978) In another study of the Vancouver r e g i o n , G o l d b e r g and U l i n d e r i n c o r p o r a t e e a r l i e r r e s e a r c h on d e v e l o p e r b e h a v i o r i n t o a m i c r o - s c a l e model of the r e s i d e n t i a l development p r o c e s s from the s u p p l y p e r s p e c t i v e . Research was c o n c e n t r a t e d on the s u p p l y s i d e because: I t was l e s s e x p e n s i v e t o do such work and a l s o because the l o c a t i o n of new s u p p l y by b u i l d e r s d e t e r m i n e s the f u t u r e growth of the m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n . To the e x t e n t t h a t d e v e l o p e r s are merely f o l l o w i n g t h e i r own e s t i m a t e of consumer demands, then the s u p p l y response a l s o i n c l u d e s the consumer's demand f o r h o u s i n g i n the l o n g run (p.191). R e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n from the d e v e l o p e r s ' p e r s p e c t i v e i s a l l o c a t e d u s i n g t h r e e s e t s of independent v a r i a b l e s : 1. A measure of p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y ; 2. A v a r i e t y of a c c e s s i b i l i t y measures; 3. Dummy v a r i a b l e s measuring m u n i c i p a l a t t i t u d e s toward r e s i d e n t i a l development (p.200). 35 The e m p i r i c a l f i n d i n g s of the r e g r e s s i o n show t h a t zoned, sewered and vacant l a n d , measures of p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y , e x p l a i n a t l e a s t 70 per cent of the v a r i a n c e i n m u l t i p l e - f a m i l y development. W h i l e the a d d i t i o n of the m u n i c i p a l dummy v a r i a b l e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y improves the e x p l a n a t o r y power of p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y of s i n g l e - f a m i l y development, i t c o n t r i b u t e s l i t t l e t o the e x p l a n a t i o n of the v a r i a n c e of m u l t i p l e - f a m i l y development. The study d i s c u s s e s the d i f f i c u l t y ( a l s o mentioned by Moore) of measuring development p o t e n t i a l i n terms of u n i t s per a c r e . The s t u d y i s a l s o v a l u a b l e as i t c o n f i r m s o t h e r a n a l y s e s which c o n c l u d e t h a t a c c e s s i b i l i t y measures a r e r e l a t i v e l y u nimportant i n e x p l a i n i n g r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n . CONCLUSION E l e v e n f a c t o r s a r e i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e s e s t u d i e s of r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n as b e i n g the most imp o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s of the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development. S p e c i f i c a l l y , i t i s s a i d t o be a f u n c t i o n of the f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s , w i t h no r a n k i n g a t t a c h e d : 1. A v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d ; 2. Proper z o n i n g ; 3. A v a i l a b i l i t y of sewerage; 4. Ease of assembly; 5. Topography; 6. P h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s ; 7. S o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; 8. L o c a l demand; 36 9. ' Price of land; 10. A c c e s s i b i l i t y ; and 1 1 . Size and type of development firm. In the following chapter these variables are considered in the development of an empirical model to explain the location or spa t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of multiple-family r e s i d e n t i a l development. 37 CHAPTER 3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY INTRODUCTION The preceding review of the l i t e r a t u r e suggested several means of answering the questions raised in the introductory chapter. The study hopes to avoid some of the p i t f a l l s of empirical analysis by observing the warnings raised in the section on land use models. The method selected here represents a combination of the alternatives explored, with special emphasis on the Bourne and Berridge model. In the f i r s t section of th i s chapter, an empirical model i s established relevant to conditions in the City of Vancouver. An outline of the study area i s presented in the second section which d e t a i l s the method of selecting the cases for the analysis. The source and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the . data are established in the t h i r d section. Specification and measurement of the variables used to represent the the o r e t i c a l phenomena are discussed in the fourth section. The f i f t h and sixth sections discuss the time period and proposed analysis respectively. In the f i n a l section, there i s a discussion of the hypotheses to be tested and the expected r e s u l t s . 38 LOCATIONAL VARIABLES A v a i l a b i l i t y Of Land/Development P o t e n t i a l The amount of l a n d , a v a i l a b l e f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development i n any urban area i s d e t e r m i n e d by z o n i n g by-laws which r e g u l a t e the form and type of a l l development w i t h i n the c i t y . Because most m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development o c c u r s i n a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d f o r t h a t p urpose, the amount of l a n d which i s e i t h e r v acant or underdeveloped and zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l purposes can a c t as a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n s t r a i n t on development i f an inadequate amount e x i s t s . A l t h o u g h i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r p r i v a t e p a r t i e s t o i n i t i a t e a r e z o n i n g r e q u e s t t o change the z o n i n g s c h e d u l e , the v a s t m a j o r i t y of r e z o n i n g s i n the C i t y of Vancouver i n r e c e n t y e a r s have been a t the i n i t i a t i v e of the C i t y P l a n n i n g Department and these have had n e g l i g i b l e impact on the amount of l a n d zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development (Raynor,1980). Raynor observes t h a t : In g e n e r a l , r e z o n i n g seems t o have been the r e s u l t of a ' f i n e t u n i n g ' of the Zoning By-law and w i l l not produce d r a m a t i c changes i n the c i t y ' s f u t u r e development (p . 1 3 ) . I f i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t f u t u r e r e z o n i n g s w i l l produce s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n the a r e a of l a n d zoned f o r medium d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l p u r p o s e s , - t h e n the a r e a h a v i n g development p o t e n t i a l i s g e n e r a l l y r e s t r i c t e d t o the a r e a a l r e a d y zoned under the medium d e n s i t y z o n i n g s c h e d u l e s . Here i s one major d i f f e r e n c e i n a n a l y s i s between Vancouver and T o r o n t o . In the Bourne and B e r r i d g e (1973) s t u d y , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o i n c l u d e a l l 39 r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s i n c e t h e r e was an u n d e r s u p p l y of apartment zoned l a n d and r e z o n i n g s were f r e q u e n t . The p r e s e n t study h y p o t h e s i z e s t h a t development p o t e n t i a l , or a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d f o r m u l t i p l e development, d e t e r m i n e d by the Zoning and Development By-law, a c t s as the most s i g n i f i c a n t d e t e r m i n a n t of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development l o c a t i o n . Other f a c t o r s are e x p e c t e d t o e x p l a i n why development o c c u r s unevenly a c r o s s a r e a s w i t h development p o t e n t i a l . P r oper Zoning V a r i a b l e s measuring proper z o n i n g are redundant i n t h i s a n a l y s i s because the sample i n c l u d e s o n l y a r e a s " a p p r o p r i a t e l y " zoned. S i n c e the number of r e z o n i n g s are i n f r e q u e n t i n medium d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s i n Vancouver, the a n a l y s i s can be l i m i t e d t o those a r e a s a l r e a d y p r o p e r l y zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. A v a i l a b i l i t y Of Sewerage A v a i l a b i l i t y of sewerage i s not c o n s i d e r e d a development c o n s t r a i n t i n Vancouver f o r two r e a s o n s . In the f i r s t p l a c e , the e n t i r e c i t y i s g e n e r a l l y f u l l y s e r v i c e d a l r e a d y , and s e c o n d l y , i t i s v e r y u n l i k e l y f o r an a r e a t o be rezoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l purposes w i t h o u t the e s s e n t i a l p h y s i c a l s e r v i c e s a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g . In f a c t , s e v e r a l a r e a s were "downzoned" i n the p a s t because of such f a c t o r s as inadequate s e r v i c e s . S i n c e the a v a i l a b i l i t y of sewerage does not v a r y i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones, i t cannot e x p l a i n why development o c c u r s unevenly and i s t h e r e f o r e not i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . 40 Ease Of Assembly The g r e a t e r the d i f f i c u l t y a d e v e l o p e r f a c e s i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of a m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g , the l e s s l i k e l y the development w i l l o c c u r , u n l e s s t h e r e a re no a l t e r n a t i v e l o c a t i o n s a v a i l a b l e . A l t h o u g h an area may appear t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e development p o t e n t i a l , not a l l s i t e s a r e economic t o d e v e l o p . One problem i s the l o t s i z e . There may be d i f f i c u l t i e s , e x p e n s i v e both i n terms of money and t i m e , i n a s s e m b l i n g a s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e enough l o t t o d e v e l o p . A second problem which l i m i t s the amount of development p o t e n t i a l i s some p r o p e r t i e s can be " l o c k e d - i n " . . T h i s o c c u r s when a p r o p e r t y i s surrounded by development too s u b s t a n t i a l t o d e m o l i s h and the s i t e i s not l a r g e enough t o be deve l o p e d t o the maximum use p e r m i t t e d . A t h i r d problem concerns the c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s t h a t depend upon f a c t o r s such as topography, s o i l c o n d i t i o n s and m a t e r i a l s used i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n . A f o u r t h r e l a t e d problem c o n c e r n s the c o s t s of r e d e v e l o p i n g e x i s t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s . The c o s t s of p u r c h a s i n g an e x i s t i n g b u i l d i n g and h a v i n g i t d e m o l i s h e d p r i o r t o development may s u b s t a n t i a l l y d e c r e a s e the f e a s i b i l i t y of development. These problems do not pr e v e n t development from o c c u r r i n g i f the investment c l i m a t e seems f a v o u r a b l e . However, they may c o n s i d e r a b l y l i m i t the amount of a v a i l a b l e l a n d , c r e a t i n g even s t r o n g e r development c o n s t r a i n t s . 41 Topography The i n f l u e n c e of topography i s m a i n l y t o i n c r e a s e c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s . One p o s i t i v e f e a t u r e about topography whichs h e l p s t o overcome the i n c r e a s e d development c o s t s i s t h a t t h e r e i s o f t e n an a s s o c i a t e d view. In these a r e a s , the view s h o u l d i n c r e a s e the p r o p e r t y v a l u e and compensate f o r i n c r e a s e d c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s . Topography i s not i n c l u d e d as a s e p a r a t e v a r i a b l e i n the a n a l y s i s because i t s i n f l u e n c e w i l l be accounted f o r by the v a r i a b l e s measuring ease of assembly and v a r i a b l e s measuring l o c a l demand. P h y s i c a l C o n d i t i o n s Of The Neighbourhood The p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n of the e x i s t i n g h o u s i n g s t o c k i n f l u e n c e s the amount of h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s which a r e p r o v i d e d . A d e t e r i o r a t e d b u i l d i n g cannot compete f a v o u r a b l y w i t h a new b u i l d i n g i n terms of s e r v i c e s , equipment and l e v e l of maintenance. The degree of d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n a neighbourhood can i n d i c a t e two p o s s i b i l i t i e s . A l a r g e number of d e t e r i o r a t e d b u i l d i n g s may i n d i c a t e a l e s s d e s i r a b l e neighbourhood, and c o n s e q u e n t l y , would not a t t r a c t new development. On the o t h e r hand, the l e v e l of d e t e r i o r a t i o n can p r o v i d e . an i n d i c a t i o n of the redevelopment p o s s i b i l i t i e s , t h u s expanding an a r e a ' s development p o t e n t i a l . The i n f l u e n c e of the p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s of the neighbourhood i s d i f f i c u l t t o determine and w i l l depend on the e x i s t i n g demand. 42 S o c i a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Of The Neighbourhood Some s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which might c o n t r i b u t e t o an ar e a ' s p r e s t i g e i n c l u d e the p r o p o r t i o n of owner-occupied r e s i d e n c e s and the average l e n g t h of r e s i d e n c y . In an Edmonton st u d y , Smith and McCann (1975) found these s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o be an i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t of whether redevelopment would o c c u r . S i x t y - n i n e p e r c e n t of the r e d e v e l o p e d p r o p e r t i e s e x p e r i e n c e d a t l e a s t t h r e e changes of ownership between 1953 and the date of redevelopment, and the p l a c e of r e n t a l o c c u p a t i o n seems p a r t i c u l a r l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n the sequence of e v e n t s . . . . R e n t i n g was o b v i o u s l y an i n t e r i m d e v i c e , w h i l e p r o p e r t i e s were b e i n g assembled and the arrangements f o r redevelopment were b e i n g made. C o n v e r s e l y , of a l l the c l e a r e d houses that*were owner-occupied, o n l y 14 per cent had changed hands i n the p r e c e d i n g f i v e y e a r s . T h e i r p o p u l a t i o n was s t a b l e and, but f o r the b l o c k - b u s t i n g t e c h n i q u e s of p r o p e r t y s p e c u l a t o r s and apartment r e d e v e l o p e r s , i t i s not l i k e l y they would have been put on the market (p . 3 6 ) . L o c a l Demand The r e s i d e n t i a l environment i s c o n s t a n t l y changing but the p r o c e s s i s slow and s i g n i f i c a n t a l t e r a t i o n s occur over l o n g p e r i o d s of t i m e . C u r r e n t demand p l a y s a key r o l e i n the p r o c e s s as e x p l a i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g passage: G e n e r a l l y , the c y c l e i s t r i g g e r e d by changes i n the demand f o r h o u s i n g as demographic v a r i a b l e s such as new household f o r m a t i o n , changes i n the household's l i f e c y c l e , or a d d i t i o n s t o e x i s t i n g h o u s e h o l d s , c o u p l e d w i t h r i s i n g r e a l incomes i n r e l a t i o n t o p r i c e s and r e n t s and/or f i n a n c i a l v a r i a b l e s such as a v a i l a b i l i t y of c r e d i t i n c r e a s e the demand f o r h o u s i n g . T h i s i n c r e a s e d demand p l a c e s p r e s s u r e on the e x i s t i n g h o u s i n g s t o c k . V a c a n c i e s drop and p r i c e s and r e n t s b e g i n t o r i s e . When p r i c e s and r e n t s i n c r e a s e t o a l e v e l such t h a t i t appears p r o f i t a b l e t o produce new u n i t s , new r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n w i l l , a t l e a s t i n t h e o r y , take p l a c e (Vancouver C i t y P l a n n i n g , 1 9 7 9 , P a r t H I (b) ,p.3). In Vancouver, demand p r e s s u r e s have r e s u l t e d i n a s t e a d y 43 i n c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g s t o c k and a d e c l i n e i n f a m i l y - o r i e n t e d accommodation. One s p e c i f i c demographic v a r i a b l e which c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s development s i t u a t i o n i s the de c r e a s e i n household s i z e e x p e r i e n c e d n a t i o n a l l y between 1971 and 1976 (Mondor,1980). The tendency toward s m a l l e r households i s even more pronounced i n the C i t y of Vancouver than i n the s u r r o u n d i n g r e g i o n , w i t h the C i t y h a v i n g p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l e s s c h i l d r e n and more o l d e r p e o p l e , as w e l l as h a v i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y 56 per cen t o f , the. r e g i o n ' s t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of persons not l i v i n g i n f a m i l i e s (Vancouver C i t y P l a n n i n g , 1 9 7 9 , P a r t U I ( a ) , p . 7 - 9 ) . The enormous p r i c e and r e n t . i n c r e a s e s e x p e r i e n c e d i n Vancouver are i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t the s u p p l y of new h o u s i n g cannot keep up w i t h the growth i n demand. The i m p l i c a t i o n of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s i m p o r t a n t . I f t h e r e a r e no demand p r e s s u r e s , v a c a n c i e s b e g i n t o i n c r e a s e c a u s i n g p r i c e s and r e n t s t o s t a b i l i z e or drop, and development i s d i s c o u r a g e d . I f t h e r e i s l i t t l e or no m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development, then development p o t e n t i a l does not a c t as a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n s t r a i n t t o development. A measure of l o c a l demand i s thus a n e c e s s a r y v a r i a b l e t o i n c l u d e i n the a n a l y s i s . P r i c e Of Land The p r i c e of l a n d i s used i n the a n a l y s i s as a measure of l o c a l demand and i s t h e r e f o r e not c o n s i d e r e d as a s e p a r a t e t h e o r e t i c a l v a r i a b l e . As the growth i n demand p l a c e s p r e s s u r e on t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k , and r e n t s and p r i c e s r i s e , i t i s the p r i c e of l a n d which i n c r e a s e s r e l a t i v e t o the v a l u e of t h e 44 b u i l d i n g . A measure of t h i s r e l a t i v e i n c r e a s e p r o v i d e s a r e a s o n a b l e i n d i c a t o r of changes i n demand. A c c e s s i b i l i t y A c c e s s i b i l i t y has been g e n e r a l l y used i n urban r e s e a r c h . t o r e f e r t o the impact of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s on development. In many models, d i s t a n c e from employment c e n t r e s such as the c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t i s assumed t o be the major d e t e r m i n a n t of development (Alonso,1960; K a i n , l 9 6 l ; Lowry,1964). The emphasis on a c c e s s i b i l i t y has been q u e s t i o n e d i n s t u d i e s which show t h a t o t h e r f a c t o r s such as n e i g h b o u r h o o d . c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and vacant l a n d a r e more i n f l u e n t i a l i n l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s than a c c e s s i b i l i t y (Goldberg,1978; Stegman,1967). Bourne (1967) makes a s i m i l a r s u g g e s t i o n : There i s a l s o c o n s i d e r a b l e e v i d e n c e t o support the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the r e l a t i v e e f f e c t s of a c c e s s i b i l i t y improvements on m o b i l i t y and s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e have d e c l i n e d . The u b i q u i t y of the a u t o m o b i l e , improved road networks, and a g r e a t e r v a r i e t y of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n etworks, has reduced the dependence of an a r e a on any g i v e n f a c i l i t y ( p . 8 4 ) . G o l d b e r g (1978), a f t e r u s i n g a v a r i e t y of a c c e s s measures t o e x p l a i n r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n i n the G r e a t e r Vancouver R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t , found t h a t none c o u l d e x p l a i n more than 15 per c e n t of the v a r i a n c e i n the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l development. H i s e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h a t , a l t h o u g h a c c e s s i b i l i t y i s an i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e i n a household's l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n and c o n s e q u e n t l y a f f e c t s the p r i c e of the e x i s t i n g s t o c k , i t i s not an i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i o n f o r d e v e l o p e r s because they are more concerned w i t h p o t e n t i a l l y d e v e l o p a b l e s i t e s . In a r e a s w i t h development p o t e n t i a l , p a r t i c u l a r l y on the urban 45 p e r i p h e r y , the v a r i a t i o n i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y i s not s i g n i f i c a n t enough t o e x p l a i n the l o c a t i o n of any r e s i d e n t i a l development. W i t h the p r e s e n t study a r e a b e i n g narrowed from the GVRD t o the C i t y of Vancouver, i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t a c c e s s i b i l i t y would e x p l a i n even l e s s of the v a r i a n c e i n the l o c a t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l development s i n c e a l l p a r t s of the c i t y a re r e l a t i v e l y s i m i l a r i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i t h the p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n of the West End w i t h i t s unique p r o x i m i t y t o the downtown and S t a n l e y Park. For the s e r e a s o n s , measures of a c c e s s i b i l i t y a r e not i n c l u d e d as v a r i a b l e s p o t e n t i a l l y e x p l a i n i n g the v a r i a n c e of the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n Vancouver. S i z e And Type Of Development F i r m K a i s e r (1968) examined the i n f l u e n c e of the s i z e and type of development f i r m i n p r e d i c t i n g the l o c a t i o n of new s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l s u b d i v i s i o n s and found t h a t the i n f l u e n c e was s u b s t a n t i a l . However, i n a 1975 survey of d e v e l o p e r b e h a v i o u r , G o l d b e r g and U l i n d e r found a g r e a t e r range of f i r m s e x i s t i n g i n the development of s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g than i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g . T h i s phenomenon i s l i k e l y due t o the g r e a t e r investment and h i g h e r degree of t e c h n o l o g y r e q u i r e d i n the a r e a of m u l t i p l e u n i t development. The e f f e c t i s t o l i m i t the d e v e l o p e r s i n the m u l t i p l e h o u s i n g f i e l d t o f i r m s h a v i n g s u b s t a n t i a l o utput and t h e r e i s c o n s e q u e n t l y not the same degree of v a r i a t i o n i n d e v e l o p e r s i z e and t y p e s i n the f i e l d of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. Because t h i s a n a l y s i s i s l i m i t e d t o m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n the C i t y of Vancouver, i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a v a r i a b l e measuring s i z e and t y p e of development 46 f i r m s would o f f e r enough v a r i a b i l i t y t o h e l p e x p l a i n the v a r i a t i o n i n l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s and i s t h e r e f o r e not i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . T h e o r e t i c a l Set Of D e t e r m i n a n t s For MFD Development The f i n a l s et of d e t e r m i n a n t s of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n s e l e c t e d from the l i t e r a t u r e and proposed i n the p r e s e n t study c o n s i s t of the f o l l o w i n g : 1 . A v a i l a b i l i t y of land/Development p o t e n t i a l 2. Ease of assembly 3. P h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s of the neighbourhood 4. S o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the neighbourhood 5. L o c a l demand. THE STUDY AREA The study a r e a c o n s i s t s of one major urban c e n t r e : the C i t y of Vancouver, Canada's t h i r d l a r g e s t c i t y . Many changes have o c c u r r e d as the c i t y has grown from a s m a l l l o g g i n g s e t t l e m e n t a l i t t l e more than one hundred y e a r s ago t o the p r o s p e r o u s c i t y of about h a l f a m i l l i o n . However, the urban s p a t i a l c h a r a c t e r of Vancouver d e v e l o p e d a t an e a r l y s tage and has remained remarkably p e r s i s t e n t throughout subsequent s t a g e s of development (Hardwick,1974). T h i s p a t t e r n has been d e s c r i b e d i n terms of a ' c o r e - r i n g urban model', which i s s i m i l a r t o the c o n c e n t r i c zone i d e a of Burgess (1925), who p o s t u l a t e d t h a t growth o c c u r r e d around a c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s c o r e i n the form of c o n c e n t r i c c i r c l e s , w i t h a d e c r e a s i n g d e n s i t y of l a n d use a t an i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e from the c o r e . 47 In 1929, an i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y r e c o g n i z e d c o n s u l t a n t named Harlem Bartholomew p r e p a r e d a p l a n f o r Vancouver which r e f l e c t e d b o th the e x i s t i n g e s t a b l i s h e d p a t t e r n s and the c u r r e n t views of academics and p r o f e s s i o n a l s . "Bartholomew's p l a n was f o r a c o r e - o r i e n t e d , s e c t o r a l l y - s e g r e g a t e d , r a d i a l l y - o r g a n i z e d c i t y " (Hardwick,1974,p.27). M u l t i p l e f a m i l y development was t o occur i n the t h i r d r i n g , between the f i r s t two r i n g s c o n t a i n i n g the downtown c o r e and i n d u s t r y and the f o u r t h and f i f t h r i n g s c o n t a i n i n g c o n v e r s i o n s and duplex a c t i v i t y and detached s i n g l e f a m i l y neighbourhoods. The ar e a s p e r m i t t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development, i n c l u d i n g the West End, K i t s i l a n o , Mount P l e a s a n t , and Grandview, have remained the major f o c u s f o r such development t o the p r e s e n t , w i t h o n l y s m a l l changes i n the ar e a s zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y p u r p o s e s . C u r r e n t l y t h e r e a r e about 1000 a c r e s of l a n d zoned for. m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development (Vancouver C i t y P l a n n i n g , P a r t i 11(b),1979,p.10). There a r e t e n zo n i n g d i s t r i c t s c h e d u l e s which comprise these 1000 a c r e s . These a r e : RM-1 M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-2 M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-3 M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-3A M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-3A1 M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-3B M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-4 M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule RM-4A M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D i s t r i c t Schedule FM-1 F a i r v i e w M u l t i p l e D w e l l i n g D i s t r i c t Schedule WED West End D i s t r i c t Schedule Three p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n s , where m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development o c c u r s t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t and which have not been i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s a r e c e r t a i n commercial d i s t r i c t s , the Downtown Development D i s t r i c t and Comprehensive Development D i s t r i c t (CD-1) a r e a s . M u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development 48 i s p e r m i t t e d i n c e r t a i n commercial d i s t r i c t s where: the .Development P e r m i t Board i s of the o p i n i o n t h a t the s i t e has u n u s u a l p e c u l a r i t i e s of l o c a t i o n which make i t u n s u i t a b l e f o r commercial use (Zoning By-law, D i s t r i c t Schedule C-3A,p.26l). In o t h e r commercial d i s t r i c t s c h e d u l e s , m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s p e r m i t t e d as a c o n d i t i o n a l use and i s o c c u r r i n g t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t where t h e r e appears t o be an o v e r s u p p l y of commercial space. A c o m b i n a t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l and commercial uses i s the most f r e q u e n t form of r e s i d e n t i a l development i n commercial d i s t r i c t s . To i l l u s t r a t e t h i s t r e n d , C i t y of Vancouver d a t a d e s c r i b e d i n subsequent pages show t h a t i n 1975 ten per cent of a l l m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development o c c u r r e d i n commercial zones, w i t h n i n e t y per c e n t of the t e n per cent b e i n g combined r e s i d e n t i a l and commercial uses. W h i l e t h i s amount of developments may seem, h i g h , the a c t u a l acreage i s v e r y low. A l t h o u g h the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n c r e a s e s i n 1977, the p e r c e n t a g e s of development i n commercial a r e a s and the p e r c e n t a g e of combined r e s i d e n t i a l and commercial uses remains the same as the 1975 f i g u r e s . A c e r t a i n amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y c o n s t r u c t i o n i s a l s o happening i n the downtown, p r i m a r i l y i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h o t h e r commercial b u i l d i n g s . The reason t h a t the commercial d i s t r i c t s c h e d u l e s and the Downtown Development D i s t r i c t s c h e d u l e s a r e not i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s i s because i t has been v e r y uncommon so f a r f o r d e v e l o p e r s t o c o n s t r u c t m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g i n t h i s a r e a . The t h i r d zone e x c l u d e d from the a n a l y s i s i s the Comprehensive Development D i s t r i c t . The "CD-I" d i s t r i c t i s e s t a b l i s h e d by C o u n c i l f o r a development p r o p o s a l which does not 49 meet the b u i l d i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s of the e x i s t i n g z o n i n g s c h e d u l e s . Each "CD-1" d i s t r i c t i s s i t e s p e c i f i c and has i t s own s e t of p l a n n i n g g u i d e l i n e s and p o l i c i e s . The reason t h a t these d i s t r i c t s a r e not i n c l u d e d , even though m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development may be e x t e n s i v e i s because m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s not a l l o w e d as an o u t r i g h t use. The zone e x i s t s o n l y a f t e r l e n g t h y n e g o t i a t i o n , and agreement among the d e v e l o p e r s , C i t y C o u n c i l and the p u b l i c i s reached. I f the terms of the agreement a r e d i s c o n t i n u e d , the d i s t r i c t c e a s e s t o e x i s t . The l i m i t a t i o n of study t o the C i t y of Vancouver r e p r e s e n t s a compromise between the n a t u r e of the a v a i l a b l e d a t a and the n e c e s s a r y a s s u m p t i o n s . A p r e f e r a b l e study a r e a would i n c l u d e the e n t i r e r e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t because i t i s the l a n d s u r r o u n d i n g Vancouver which i s c o n s i d e r e d the p e r i p h e r y of urban development. The development p r o c e s s i n Vancouver i s more an e x c e r c i s e of f i l l i n g i n a v a i l a b l e space and redevelopment. However c o n s i s t e n c y problems and l a c k of d e t a i l e d d a t a i n s u r r o u n d i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s makes the r e s u l t s of an a n a l y s i s of the e n t i r e a r e a q u e s t i o n a b l e (Moore,1972). For these r e a s o n s , the a n a l y s i s remains r e s t r i c t e d t o the C i t y of Vancouver. THE DATA As i n d i c a t e d i n the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r ' s d i s c u s s i o n of model c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , the q u a l i t y of urban r e s e a r c h i s o f t e n l i m i t e d by inadequate d a t a . A r e s e a r c h e r has o n l y t o seek b e t t e r d a t a than have been used i n most s t u d i e s t o date t o r e a l i z e the problems i n v o l v e d . 50 Secondary d a t a c o l l e c t i o n was employed i n t h i s s t u d y , o b t a i n e d from r e c o r d s kept by the Vancouver C i t y P l a n n i n g Department i n two f i l e s , the P r o p e r t y Tax F i l e and the C u r r e n t Development F i l e . The P r o p e r t y Tax F i l e i n c l u d e s q u a n t i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n about each m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned p r o p e r t y a t the end of each y e a r . The items a v a i l a b l e i n the f i l e i n c l u d e the z o n i n g d e s i g n a t i o n , l a n d use, t e n a n c y , l o t s i z e , a s s e s s e d l a n d and improvement v a l u e , and a means of l o c a t i n g the p r o p e r t y . A measure of f l o o r space i s not a v a i l a b l e . T h i s l i m i t s the a n a l y s i s . . ' Among the d a t a a v a i l a b l e i n the C u r r e n t Development F i l e i s d e s c r i p t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n about m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development s i n c e mid-1974. V a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e the z o n i n g d e s i g n a t i o n , the new and o l d use, the number of p r o p e r t i e s assembled f o r the development, the v a l u e of the c o n s t r u c t i o n , the number of u n i t s , the l o t s i z e and a means of l o c a t i n g each development p r o j e c t . G e n e r a l l y the q u a l i t y of the d a t a i s good. The problems a r i s e more w i t h the changes over time i n the measurement of the v a r i a b l e s and i n f o r m a t i o n not b e i n g a v a i l a b l e r a t h e r than i n the s p e c i f i c way i t was measured. One example t o i l l u s t r a t e the f i r s t problem was the a s s e s s e d v a l u e measurement used t o r e p r e s e n t l a n d and improvement v a l u e s . P r i o r t o 1977, a s s e s s e d v a l u e d i d not r e p r e s e n t market v a l u e s . W ith the change i n the assessment methods i n 1977 so t h a t they r e p r e s e n t e d market v a l u e s , the d a t a c o m p l e t e l y changed, making i t i m p o s s i b l e t o compare the d a t a between y e a r s . The second problem i s i l l u s t r a t e d by the l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n on f l o o r a r e a r a t i o s which would have made the study much more a c c u r a t e . -51 The i n d i v i d u a l c a s e s on both f i l e s a r e a g g r e g a t e d t o subareas of Vancouver, each subarea b e i n g about 50 a c r e s . The a g g r e g a t e d d a t a from both f i l e s were then merged t o form one data base. Of the a p p r o x i m a t e l y 400 sub-areas i n the c i t y , 67 have l a n d zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. (See F i g u r e 1). I n . a l m o s t a l l c a s e s , m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s l i m i t e d t o t h e s e 67 s u b - a r e a s . Three n e c e s s a r y v a r i a b l e s a r e not a v a i l a b l e i n t h i s d a t a base. These v a r i a b l e s were o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h census d a t a or c a l c u l a t e d manually u s i n g the C i t y ' s l a n d use maps. THE VARIABLES The Dependent V a r i a b l e Amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development/sub-area/year. M u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s d e f i n e d i n t h i s study as a l l new c o n s t r u c t i o n of c l u s t e r h o u s i n g , apartments, mixed m u l t i p l e f a m i l y w i t h o t h e r t y p e s of r e s i d e n t i a l development and mixed m u l t i p l e f a m i l y w i t h n o n r e s i d e n t i a l development i n a r e a s zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y , development. The amount i s c a l c u l a t e d i n a c r e s and i s aggregated f o r each subarea h a v i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The number of developments i s c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g h o u s i n g s t a r t s , as i n d i c a t e d by the date of i s s u a n c e of the b u i l d i n g permit.. The date of the h o u s i n g s t a r t o f f e r s a more a c c u r a t e r e f l e c t i o n than the d a t e of c o m p l e t i o n of development c o n d i t i o n s e x i s t i n g a t the time of the d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d . C o n d i t i o n s may be e n t i r e l y changed a t the c o m p l e t i o n of the development which i s g e n e r a l l y two or t h r e e 53 y e a r s l a t e r . The Independent V a r i a b l e s V a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d . 1. Development P o t e n t i a l (DEVPOT): T h i s v a r i a b l e measures the number of a c r e s of a l l p r i v a t e l y owned l a n d a r e a zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s but not i n t h a t use. E s s e n t i a l l y the e s t i m a t e i n c l u d e s a l l v acant l a n d , . s i n g l e f a m i l y , d u p l e x and m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s i n a r e a s zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s . T h i s f i g u r e may be o v e r e s t i m a t e d f o r s e v e r a l r e a s o n s . M u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s have been i n c l u d e d as development p o t e n t i a l because i n the y e a r s examined one t h i r d of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development o c c u r r e d on p r o p e r t i e s p r e v i o u s l y o c c u p i e d by m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s . There i s a l s o e x t r e m e l y l i t t l e new c o n v e r s i o n a c t i v i t y o c c u r r i n g i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones i n e i t h e r y e a r . However, o v e r e s t i m a t i o n w i l l occur t o the e x t e n t t h a t many m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s are r e l a t i v e l y permanent s t r u c t u r e s and w i l l not be r e d e v e l o p e d i n the immediate f u t u r e . F u r t h e r o v e r e s t i m a t i o n o c c u r s because the f i g u r e i n c l u d e s l o c k e d - i n l o t s which a r e too s m a l l f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development and the e s t i m a t e does not account f o r d i f f i c u l t i e s which might make s i t e s i m p o s s i b l e or c o s t l y t o d e v e l o p . The o v e r e s t i m a t i o n i s b a l a n c e d by o t h e r independent v a r i a b l e s measuring the amount of l o c k e d - i n l o t s and p h y s i c a l f e a t u r e s of the s i t e . U n d e r e s t i m a t i o n of development p o t e n t i a l o c c u r s , p a r t i a l l y because not a l l e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y b u i l d i n g s a r e developed 54 t o the maximum d e n s i t y p e r m i t t e d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , the i n f o r m a t i o n i s not a v a i l a b l e t o be a b l e t o c a l c u l a t e the d i f f e r e n c e between the s i z e of the e x i s t i n g b u i l d i n g and the maximum s i z e a l l o w e d under a p a r t i c u l a r z o n i n g s c h e d u l e . Development p o t e n t i a l i s a l s o u n d e r e s t i m a t e d because some e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y b u i l d i n g s a re i n a d e t e r i o r a t e d c o n d i t i o n , making them more e x p e n s i v e t o upgrade than t o r e d e v e l o p . The e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between development p o t e n t i a l and the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development by l o c a t i o n i s p o s i t i v e , meaning t h a t the more development p o t e n t i a l e x i s t i n g i n an a r e a , the more m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development i s expected t o o c c u r . ' V a r i a b l e s measuring ease of assembly 2. Average l o t s i z e (AVLOT): The minimum l o t s i z e , measured i n square f e e t , r e q u i r e d f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s s p e c i f i e d by the z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e as b e i n g 6,000 square f e e t . I f the average l o t s i z e i n an a r e a i s s m a l l e r than the minimum r e q u i r e d , the d e v e l o p e r must f i r s t assemble the l o t s b e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g w i t h the development. Because l a n d assembly can be an e x p e n s i v e and time-consuming e x c e r c i s e , i t i s ex p e c t e d t h a t the s m a l l e r the average l o t s i z e , the l e s s development w i l l o c c u r , and v i c e v e r s a , i n d i c a t i n g a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p . L o t f r o n t a g e i s i n c l u d e d i n s i m i l a r a n a l y s e s (Mark,1980; R i t t e r , l 9 7 1 ; Sagalyn,1973) because a minimum l o t f r o n t a g e i s o f t e n s p e c i f i e d i n some . z o n i n g by-laws and t h i s may a l s o i n f l u e n c e ease of assembly. However, t h e r e a re no s p e c i f i e d l o t f r o n t a g e s i n t h e m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i c t s so i t 55 does not a p p l y i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . 3. % L o c k e d - i n l o t s (LOCKIN): L o c k e d - i n l o t s a r e those whose a d j o i n i n g s i t e s a re t o o s u b s t a n t i a l l y or r e c e n t l y d eveloped t o be d e m o l i s h e d , making i t i m p o s s i b l e f o r the d e v e l o p e r t o assemble a s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e l o t t o develop, t o the maximum d e n s i t y p e r m i t t e d under the z o n i n g s c h e d u l e . T h i s v a r i a b l e , i s measured as the per ce n t of l o c k e d - i n l o t s i n a r e a s w i t h a v a i l a b l e l a n d or development p o t e n t i a l i n each m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zone. An e s t i m a t e of the p e r c e n t a g e of l o c k e d - i n l o t s f o r the c i t y was c o l l e c t e d u s i n g a ^sample of a r e a s w i t h v a r y i n g amounts of development. Of a p o s s i b l e 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l i n the m u l t i p l e f a m i l y a r e a s , 146.4 a c r e s were sur v e y e d . For c a l c u l a t i o n p u r p o s e s , a l o c k e d - i n l o t was d e f i n e d as a l o t or l o t s h a v i n g a combined a r e a l e s s than 6000 sq. f t . , which i s e i t h e r vacant or d e v e l o p e d w i t h s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g or d u p l e x e s and which i s a d j a c e n t t o p r o p e r t i e s d e v e l o p e d w i t h b u i l d i n g s h a v i n g more than ten d w e l l i n g u n i t s . The survey i n d i c a t e d t h a t of the 146.4 a c r e s , 4 a c r e s of l o c k e d - i n l o t s e x i s t i n the c i t y , or 3 per cent of the a v a i l a b l e l a n d i s l o c k e d - i n . The p e r c e n t a g e of l o c k e d - i n l o t s i s h i g h e r i n more h i g h l y d e v e l o p e d a r e a s such as the West End and Marpole and was n e g l i g i b l e i n o t h e r a r e a s where l i t t l e development was o c c u r r i n g . I t f o l l o w s t h a t s i n c e m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development n o r m a l l y r e q u i r e s the assembly of two or more s i n g l e f a m i l y l o t s , t h e r e w i l l be more o c c a s i o n s where i n d i v i d u a l l o t s become l o c k e d - i n as development i n c r e a s e s . The p r e s e n t p r o c e d u r e t o d e a l w i t h the c r e a t i o n of a new l o c k e d - i n l o t i s t o r e q u i r e t h a t 56 a d e v e l o p e r make a r e a s o n a b l e o f f e r on the l o t which would o t h e r w i s e become l o c k e d - i n . I f the o f f e r i s r e f u s e d , the development u s u a l l y proceeds and a new l o c k e d - i n l o t i s c r e a t e d . The s u r v e y i n c l u d e d the major m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones, l e a v i n g o n l y i s o l a t e d , s m a l l m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones. In the s e unsurveyed a r e a s , i t was assumed t h a t s i n c e development p o t e n t i a l was l i k e l y t o be n e g l i g i b l e , t h a t the perc e n t a g e of l o c k e d - i n l o t s would a l s o be i n s i g n i f i c a n t . The p e r c e n t a g e s of l o c k e d - i n l o t s have p r o b a b l y been o v e r e s t i m a t e d as they a r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g 1980 landuse d a t a f o r , as development i n c r e a s e s , the pe r c e n t a g e of l o c k e d - i n l o t s i n c r e a s e s . However, s i n c e the change i n the pe r c e n t a g e between 1980 and 1975 i s ex p e c t e d t o be v e r y s m a l l , the d a t a c o l l e c t e d are c o n s i d e r e d a r e a s o n a b l e e s t i m a t e of the number of l o c k e d - i n l o t s and are i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . 4. Average MFD Improvement C o s t s / S q . F t . ( I M P C S T ) : T h i s r a t i o p r o v i d e s an e s t i m a t e of the f e a s i b i l i t y of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. Improvement c o s t s a r e the b u i l d e r ' s e s t i m a t e of the a c t u a l v a l u e of the improvement, as r e c o r d e d on the b u i l d i n g p e r m i t . T h i s f i g u r e may be u n d e r e s t i m a t e d s i n c e t h e r e i s s a i d t o be a tendency f o r b u i l d e r s t o u n d e r - r e p o r t t h i s v a l u e . The d e v e l o p e r i s i n t e r e s t e d i n t h i s e s t i m a t e i n o r d e r t o make a d e c i s i o n on whether t o d e v e l o p . The p r o c e s s , as e x p l a i n e d by Moore(1972) i s as f o l l o w s : The d e v e l o p e r ' s economic f e a s i b i l i t y s t udy e v a l u a t e s the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the p r o p o s a l i n terms of i t s c o s t i m p l i c a t i o n s ( l a n d c o s t , e s t i m a t e d p h y s i c a l development c o s t s , overhead and f i n a n c i n g ) and i t s revenue i m p l i c a t i o n s ( u s u a l l y an i n t u i t i v e e s t i m a t e of the l i k e l y s e l l i n g p r i c e ) and i s tempered by c o n s i d e r a t i o n of investment r i s k s . . . . C e r t a i n l y the 57 d e v e l o p e r w i l l t a k e s t e p s t o m i n i m i z e h i s p e r c e i v e d r i s k . He w i l l s e l e c t s i t e s w i t h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s he f e e l s a r e l i k e l y t o i n c r e a s e the m a r k e t a b i l i t y of h i s p r o d u c t - t h o s e seen as h a v i n g a h i g h p r e s t i g e l e v e l . . . a n d those w i t h i n s t i t u t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as a v a i l a b i l i t y of urban s e r v i c e s , z o n i n g p r o t e c t i o n , and s c h o o l s ( p . 1 1 ) . The h i g h e r the MFD improvement c o s t s , the h i g h e r are the development c o s t s r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r a r e a s i n the c i t y . T h e r e f o r e , the e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n an a r e a and improvement c o s t s i s n e g a t i v e . 5. Average SFD, Duplex and MCD Land V a l u e / S q . F t . (LANDV).: In a d d i t i o n t o knowing the a v e r a g e improvement c o s t s , the d e v e l o p e r needs t o have the average l a n d v a l u e i n o r d e r t o m i n i m i z e c o s t . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t a d e v e l o p e r would buy t h e cheaper l a n d , making the r e l a t i o n s h i p between l a n d v a l u e and the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development n e g a t i v e . 6. Average SFD, Duplex and MCD Improvement Value/Average T o t a l V a l u e (DEMCST): These r a t i o s p r o v i d e an e s t i m a t e of the f e a s i b i l i t y of redevelopment of the e x i s t i n g lower d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s . I t i s assumed t h a t p r o p e r t y i s h e l d f o r p r o f i t and i f a more p r o f i t a b l e use i s found, the p r o p e r t y w i l l be r e d e v e l o p e d . In o t h e r words, d e m o l i t i o n and replacement w i l l o c c u r , c e t e r i s p a r i b u s , when a n t i c i p a t e d income exceeds the c o s t of replacement and the o r i g i n a l i nvestment l o s t (Bourne, 1967,p.28). The h i g h e r the r a t i o of improvement v a l u e t o t o t a l v a l u e , the h i g h e r t h e v a l u e of the o r i g i n a l investment and the l e s s f e a s i b l e i t i s t o d e m o l i s h and r e d e v e l o p . In Vancouver, the average s i n g l e f a m i l y b u i l d i n g v a l u e t o t o t a l v a l u e r a t i o s range 58 from 18 t o 54 per c e n t . However, o n l y a v e r y s m a l l p e r c e n t a g e of the c i t y has b u i l d i n g v a l u e t o t o t a l v a l u e r a t i o s g r e a t e r than 33 per c e n t (Raynor,1979). The e x p e c t e d a s s o c i a t i o n between t h i s r a t i o and the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s n e g a t i v e . V a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 7. Age of E x i s t i n g D w e l l i n g s (AGE): A b a s i c assumption about b u i l d i n g s i s t h a t a g i n g i s c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d e t e r i o r a t i o n , w i t h the e f f e c t t h a t an a r e a w i t h b u i l d i n g s Of a s i m i l a r age passes through s u c c e s s i v e phases of growth, d e c l i n e and renewal (Bourne,1967; Smith & McCann,1975). T h e r e f o r e , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t a v a r i a b l e measuring the age of the e x i s t i n g b u i l d i n g s i n an a r e a would have a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the amount of r e s i d e n t i a l development i n t h a t a r e a . Smith and McCann (1975) i n d i c a t e i n t h e i r study of Edmonton t h a t the p r o c e s s of change does not n e c e s s a r i l y f o l l o w the e x p e c t e d p a t t e r n of age l e a d i n g t o d e t e r i o r a t i o n and f i n a l l y redevelopment. The Edmonton p i l o t study has made i t p l a i n t h a t t h e r e i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p , but d e t e r i o r a t i o n i s much more a p r o d u c t than a cause of the c o n v e r s i o n and redevelopment p r o c e s s e s ( p . 3 6 ) . W h i l e t h e i r study l e a v e s some doubt about the d i r e c t i o n of a s s o c i a t i o n between the age of e x i s t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s and the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n an a r e a , Smith and McCann found t h a t the s t r e n g t h of a s s o c i a t i o n was much weaker than o t h e r v a r i a b l e s such as a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d . The age v a r i a b l e i n the study u n d e r t a k e n here i s d e r i v e d from 1971 census d a t a , and i s measured i n terms of the p e r c e n t a g e of 59 b u i l d i n g s i n each subarea b u i l t b e f o r e 1946. 8. A c r e s of E x i s t i n g M u l t i p l e F a m i l y D w e l l i n g s (EXTMF.D): In a study of apartment l o c a t i o n and d e v e l o p e r b e h a v i o r , Bourne (1973) found t h a t the d i s t r i b u t i o n of apartments e x i s t i n g a t the b e g i n n i n g of the p e r i o d was the b e s t p r e d i c t o r of apartment development. New c o n s t r u c t i o n tended t o c o n c e n t r a t e i n r e l a t i v e l y few l o c a t i o n s i n the C i t y of T o r o n t o , i n a r e a s a l r e a d y d e v e l o p e d w i t h apartment b u i l d i n g s . S i n c e r e z o n i n g s were f r e q u e n t i n T o r o n t o , d e v e l o p e r s would not be l i m i t e d by e x i s t i n g z o n i n g and would c o n c e n t r a t e i n a r e a s h a v i n g o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f a c i l i t a t i n g development. The e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between a c r e s of e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s i n each subarea and the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s p o s i t i v e . The p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n i s a r e f l e c t i o n of the demand a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g i n a subarea f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n c e s as w e l l as the neighbourhood's acceptance of h i g h e r d e n s i t y h o u s i n g . The magnitude of a s s o c i a t i o n w i l l d e c r e ase due t o the l i m i t e d e x t e n t of apartment redevelopment. New c o n s t r u c t i o n i s a t t r a c t e d t o an a r e a d e v e l o p e d w i t h m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g p r o v i d e d t h e r e i s a v a i l a b l e l a n d on which t o d e v e l o p . V a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g soc i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 9. % Development P o t e n t i a l Owner-Occupied (DEVOWN): A h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s i n a r e a s w i t h development p o t e n t i a l s u g g e s t s a g r e a t e r r e s i s t a n c e t o new m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i f i t means t h a t e x i s t i n g b u i l d i n g s have t o be r e p l a c e d . A low p r o p o r t i o n of o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s i n d i c a t e s a 60 h i g h p r o p o r t i o n of absentee-owners, s u g g e s t i n g t h a t many have i n v e s t e d i n the area and would p r e f e r i t b e i n g d e v e l o p e d w i t h the b e s t p o s s i b l e use. 10. Average Length of Occupancy (STABLE): T h i s v a r i a b l e p r o v i d e s an e s t i m a t e of the s t a b i l i t y of an a r e a and i t i s u s u a l l y but not n e c e s s a r i l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h owner-occupied h o u s i n g . I t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t d e v e l o p e r s would be more a t t r a c t e d t o a r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e neighbourhood and thus the exp e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development and the average l e n g t h of occupancy would be p o s i t i v e . However, the p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n would o c c u r o n l y i f t h e r e was development p o t e n t i a l i n the a r e a and the d e v e l o p e r s are not f a c e d w i t h o r g a n i z e d c i t i z e n r e s i s t e n c e a g a i n s t redevelopment of the e x i s t i n g s t o c k . T h i s v a r i a b l e i s measured u s i n g 1971 and 1976 census d a t a i n terms of per cent of the a r e a ' s p o p u l a t i o n which has remained i n the same d w e l l i n g f o r over f i v e y e a r s . V a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g l o c a l demand 11. Average V a l u e of E x i s t i n g M u l t i p l e F a m i l y Development/Sq.Ft. (DEMAND): Other t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , a d e v e l o p e r i s more a t t r a c t e d t o an a r e a w i t h m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development h a v i n g r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r s a l e s v a l u e s . The p r o f i t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h any development i s a f u n c t i o n of the s a l e s v a l u e minus the c o s t s of c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n c l u d i n g l a n d c o s t s , d e m o l i t i o n c o s t s and b u i l d i n g c o s t s . I f , as Pennance a r g u e s , h o u s i n g p r i c e s a r e det e r m i n e d by demand and not by s u p p l y c o s t s , an a r e a h a v i n g h i g h e r h o u s i n g p r i c e s does not n e c e s s a r i l y have 61 h i g h e r c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s . There i s t h e r e f o r e , p o t e n t i a l , t o have a l a r g e r p r o f i t i n the s e a r e a s which e x p l a i n s why d e v e l o p e r s would t o a t t r a c t e d t o them. A d e v e l o p e r can use average s e l l i n g p r i c e s i n the a r e a as an i n d i c a t i o n of the d e s i r a b i l i t y and hence demand f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n the neighbourhood. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development and average v a l u e per square f o o t i s expected t o be p o s i t i v e . T a b l e I : V a r i a b l e s E x p l a i n i n g The L o c a t i o n Of M u l t i p l e F a m i l y Development NO. VARIABLE CODE MEASUREMENT 1 . Development P o t e n t i a l DEVPOT a c r e s 2. Average L o t S i z e AVLOT a c r e s 3. L o c k e d - i n L o t s LOCKIN % 4. Av. Improvement C o s t s IMPCST $ / s q . f t . 5. Average Land V a l u e LANDV $ / s q . f t . 6. Redevelopment C o s t s DEMCST $ 7. B u i l d i n g s Over 45 Years AGE % 8. E x i s t i n g MFD EXTMFD a c r e s 9. Devpot Owner-Occupiers DEVOWN % 10. Over 5 Years Occupancy STABLE % 1 1 . Av. MFD T o t a l V a l u e DEMAND $ / s q . f t . THE TIME PERIOD I t was hoped t h a t two d i f f e r e n t time p e r i o d s c o u l d be a n a l y z e d t o account f o r the impact of e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e s such as n a t i o n a l economic and inve s t m e n t c o n d i t i o n s . F a c t o r s measuring t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s have not been i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s because i t was assumed t h a t t h e i r impact was f e l t more i n t he d e v e l o p e r s ' d e c i s i o n of volume r a t h e r than s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n . However, d i f f e r e n t time p e r i o d s might have 62 r e f l e c t e d c h a n g i n g s o c i a l , economic and p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s and i t was hoped t h a t the i n c l u s i o n of two time p e r i o d s i n t o the a n a l y s i s would show something about the model under d i f f e r i n g c o n d i t i o n s . The two t w e l v e month time p e r i o d s of 1975 and 1977 were s e l e c t e d f o r the s t u d y . These y e a r s were chosen t o r e p r e s e n t a year of low m u l t i p l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l development a c t i v i t y and a year where p r o d u c t i o n was c o m p a r a t i v e l y h i g h . M u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g s t a r t s p r o v i d e an i n d i c a t i o n of the investment c l i m a t e f o r these y e a r s . Table I I : MFD U n i t S t a r t s In The C i t y Of Vancouver Year MFD U n i t S t a r t s 1 973 2516 1974 1838 1975 1689 1976 2279 1977 3438 1978 1258 1979 1 292 Source: S t a t i s t i c s c o m p i l e d from monthly P r e l i m i n a r y Housing  S t a r t s , Complet i o n s And Under C o n s t r u c t i o n , CMHC. (B.C.Region). Vancouver,B.C. The low l e v e l of development a c t i v i t y p r i o r t o 1976 was p a r t l y a r e f l e c t i o n of both F e d e r a l and P r o v i n c i a l removal of i n c e n t i v e s f o r investment i n r e n t a l h o u s i n g . The F e d e r a l d i s i n c e n t i v e was the removal of the t a x s h e l t e r and the P r o v i n c e r e a c t e d t o the subsequent t i g h t r e n t a l market by imposing r e n t c o n t r o l s . Government a t t i t u d e s changed i n 1976 and the r e s u l t i n g programs p r o v i d e d i n c e n t i v e s t o d e v e l o p e r s . The i n i t i a t i v e s 63 i n c l u d e d a r e t u r n of the p e r s o n a l t a x s h e l t e r p r o v i s i o n s , e x c l u s i o n of new u n i t s from r e n t c o n t r o l s and g r a n t s under the F e d e r a l - P r o v i n c i a l A s s i s t e d R e n t a l Program. These programs undoubtedly a s s i s t e d i n the i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n 1976 (Vancouver C i t y P l a n n i n g , 1 9 7 9 , P a r t i 1 1 ( b ) ) . The i n c r e a s e i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y s t a r t s peaked i n 1977, w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w i c e the number of u n i t s t a r t s as i n 1975. In the two s u c c e s s i v e y e a r s , t h e r e was a sharp d e c l i n e i n the number of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g s t a r t s . The drop i n r e s i d e n t i a l development a c t i v i t y was not s p e c i f i c t o Vancouver; i n s t e a d i t r e p r e s e n t e d s i m i l a r c o n d i t i o n s a c r o s s Canada (Vancouver C i t y P l a n n i n g , 1 9 7 9 , P a r t I I I ( d ) ) . W i th the i n c o r p o r a t i o n of the two y e a r s , 1975 and 1977 i n t o the a n a l y s i s , i t may have been p o s s i b l e t o see the impact of n a t i o n a l and p r o v i n c i a l s o c i a l , economic and p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s on the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. I t c o u l d be t h a t l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s a r e based on d i f f e r e n t f a c t o r s i n p e r i o d s of h i g h and low development a c t i v i t y and a comparison of the r e s u l t s from the two y e a r s would p r o v i d e an i n d i c a t i o n of t h i s phenomenon. An a d d i t i o n a l reason f o r c h o o s i n g these p a r t i c u l a r y e a r s i s the fewer problems w i t h the c o n s i s t e n c y of the d a t a d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . Important v a r i a b l e s i n the a n a l y s i s a r e the l a n d and improvement v a l u e s e s t a b l i s h e d by the B r i t i s h Columbia Assessment A u t h o r i t y which a l t e r e d i t s measurement of a s s e s s e d v a l u e s i n 1977. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , p e c u l a r i t i e s of t h e d a t a made i t i m p o s s i b l e t o s e l e c t two p e r i o d s f o l l o w i n g the a l t e r e d method of assessment so t h a t the data c o u l d be both a c c u r a t e and 64 comparable. I n s t e a d , i t was hoped t h a t a l t h o u g h the a s s e s s e d v a l u e s of the two p e r i o d s p r i o r t o 1977 d i d not r e p r e s e n t market v a l u e s , the assessments were c o n s i s t e n t between both a r e a s and y e a r s so t h a t v a l u e s i n one a r e a and year c o u l d be compared r e l a t i v e t o one a n o t h e r . An unexpected and l a t e d i f f i c u l t y a r o s e w i t h the year-end 1976 P r o p e r t y Tax F i l e , making a l l the i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g p r o p e r t y c o n d i t i o n s a t the b e g i n n i n g of 1977 u n a v a i l a b l e . T h i s u n a v a i l a b l e d a t a p r e v e n t e d the a n a l y s i s of the two y e a r s of development p o t e n t i a l . T h i s i l l u s t r a t e s the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h depending upon sec o n d a r y s o u r c e s f o r d a t a . THE ANALYSIS The i n t e n t of t h i s study i s t o examine how w e l l e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s can measure the i n f l u e n c e of f a c t o r s i n a d e v e l o p e r ' s l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . The a n a l y s i s seeks t o measure the s i g n i f i c a n c e of development p o t e n t i a l , as d e t e r m i n e d by the Zoning and Development By-law, i n i n f l u e n c i n g the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The a n a l y s i s then seeks t o a s s e s s the s i g n i f i c a n c e of development p o t e n t i a l r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r i n f l u e n c i n g f a c t o r s . The s t a t i s t i c a l method employed f o r t h i s purpose i s m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . T h i s t e c h n i q u e was s e l e c t e d because of i t s a b i l i t y t o measure th e amount of change i n a dependent v a r i a b l e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h g i v e n amounts of change i n the e x p l a n a t o r y or independent v a r i a b l e s . E s s e n t i a l l y , r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a s ks two q u e s t i o n s of the d a t a : 1) Does a r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t between t h e dependent and independent 65 v a r i a b l e s ? and 2) What i s the magnitude of the r e l a t i o n s h i p ? The f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p can be d e s c r i b e d a s : y = f ( ^ , , , X j , . . . x „ ^ , e) where 'y' i s the dependent v a r i a b l e , * x ( , x l f x 4 , . . . x ^ , ' a r e the independent v a r i a b l e s and 'e' i s the e r r o r term. G i v e n the assumption t h a t the data p o i n t s g e n e r a l l y l i e around, a s t r a i g h t l i n e , which i s u s u a l l y assumed i n l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t a k e s the form: y = a + b, x, + b vx^+ b 3 x a + . . . b_x_+ e where 'a' and 'b' are the unknown parameters t o be e s t i m a t e d . R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s " p r o v i d e s a proce d u r e f o r d e t e r m i n i n g a l i n e , c a l l e d the r e g r e s s i o n l i n e , which i s the be s t s t r a i g h t l i n e (or l i n e a r ) a p p r o x i m a t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between (the dependent and independent v a r i a b l e s ) " ( S j o q u i s t et a l . , 1 9 7 4 , p . 8 ) . T h i s p r o c e d u r e i s the same as f i n d i n g v a l u e s f o r the s l o p e (b) and the i n t e r c e p t ( a ) . Once e s t i m a t e s of the parameters of the sample have been o b t a i n e d , the next s t e p i s t o t e s t whether the e s t i m a t e s a re t r u e f o r the p o p u l a t i o n . A n u l l h y p o t h e s i s i s f o r m u l a t e d s t a t i n g t h a t b i s e q u a l t o z e r o or t h a t t h e r e i s no r e l a t i o n s h i p between the dependent v a r i a b l e and the independent v a r i a b l e s . C e r t a i n s t a t i s t i c s , a v a i l a b l e t h rough the SPSS computer package, f a c i l i t a t e t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of the n u l l h y p o t h e s i s (Nie e t . a l . , 1 9 7 5 ) . 66 Standard E r r o r Of E s t i m a t e d C o e f f i c i e n t T h i s i s a "measure of how s e n s i t i v e the e s t i m a t e of the parameter i s t o changes i n a few o b s e r v a t i o n s " ( S j o q u i s t e t . a l . , 1 9 7 4 ) . A l a r g e degree of e r r o r w i l l c a s t doubt upon the e s t i m a t e and thus make one l e s s ' C o n f i d e n t ' t h a t b i s not e q u a l to z e r o . The T - r a t i o To make i n f e r e n c e s about the p o p u l a t i o n parameter, one wants t o know how c l o s e t o the parameter i s the e s t i m a t e . S i n c e the p o p u l a t i o n parameter can never be known f o r c e r t a i n , i t i s p o s s i b l e o n l y t o make sta t e m e n t s about "the p r o b a b i l i t y of o b t a i n i n g an e s t i m a t e w i t h a g i v e n degree of c l o s e n e s s " ( I b i d . , p . 1 4 ) . The t - r a t i o i s the f r a c t i o n of the e s t i m a t e d parameter, eg. b, ,b t,b 3 , . . . b^,, t o i t s s t a n d a r d e r r o r . T h i s r a t i o i s compared t o an a p p r o p r i a t e t - s t a t i s t i c . The r u l e of thumb i s : R e j e c t the n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t b i s i n v a l t o z e r o i n f a v o u r of the a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t b i s not e q u a l t o z e r o i f the t - r a t i o i s g r e a t e r than 2 p r o v i d e d the degrees of freedom a r e 60 or more and the d e s i r e d l e v e l of c o n f i d e n c e i s 95 or l e s s ( I b i d . , p . 1 7 ) . F - s t a t i s t i c The F - s t a t i s t i c i s a s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s i m i l a r t o the t -s t a t i s t i c but whereas the t - s t a t i s t i c t e s t s the h y p o t h e s i s t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l c o e f f i c i e n t (parameter) d i f f e r s from z e r o , the F-s t a t i s t i c a l l o w s one t o t e s t f o r the s i m u l t a n e o u s e f f e c t of a l l c o e f f i c i e n t s . The F - r a t i o i s compared t o the F - s t a t i s t i c found i n a t a b l e i n most s t a t i s t i c a l r e f e r e n c e books. I f the F - r a t i o 67 is higher than the F - s t a t i s t i c , i t i s possible at a specified l e v e l of significance to reject the null, hypothesis that the regression c o e f f i c i e n t s are not equal to zero. Correlation Coefficent This i s a descriptive s t a t i s t i c , denoted as 'R' which measures the degree of association between two variables. Although two variables may be strongly correlated, either p o s i t i v e l y or negatively, t h i s association does not indicate causality. Variables may be correlated i f : 1) both variables affect each other; 2) the two variables are both related to a t h i r d variable; or 3) simply by coincidence the variables are systematically correlated (Ibid.,p.19). The Coefficient Of Determination The coefficient, of determination, or R2 , evaluates how well an estimated regression l i n e f i t s the data points. It can be interpreted as a measure of how well the variation in the independent variables taken together explains the v a r i a t i o n in the dependent variable. Although the R2 value should be reported, i t should not be used alone as an indicator of the regression r e s u l t . There are several reasons why maximization of the c o e f f i c i e n t of determination i s not the only purpose of regression analysis. The f i r s t i s that additional variables w i l l never decrease the R2 value even though their variation may contribute nothing to the equation. The second reason i s that variables can be added which w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y raise the value of the R2 without increasing any theoretical knowledge. Each variable must be 68 t h e o r e t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t b e f o r e i t i s i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . A f u r t h e r reason why the R 2 v a l u e s s h o u l d not be examined i n i s o l a t i o n i s t h a t d i f f e r e n t d a t a forms t e n d t o produce d i f f e r e n t R 2 s t a t i s t i c s . T i m e - s e r i e s d a t a g e n e r a l l y r e s u l t i n h i g h e r R 2 v a l u e s than c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l d a t a which has a h i g h e r v a r i a t i o n i n the v a r i a b l e s because they a r e u s u a l l y l e s s a g g r e g a t e d . In both t y p e s of s t u d i e s the c o e f f i c i e n t s may be s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from z e r o and a s i m p l e e x a m i n a t i o n of the R 2 s t a t i s t i c may be m i s l e a d i n g . P r e d i c t i o n To t h i s p o i n t , the d i s c u s s i o n of r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s has c e n t r e d around h y p o t h e s i s t e s t i n g . The t e c h n i q u e can a l s o be used f o r p r e d i c t i n g v a l u e s of the dependent v a r i a b l e g i v e n known v a l u e s f o r a s e t of independent v a r i a b l e s and e s t i m a t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s . R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i s s u i t a b l e f o r p r e d i c t i n g i f c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s e x i s t . The R 2 v a l u e or 'goodness of f i t ' of the r e g r e s s i o n l i n e s h o u l d be f a i r l y h i g h . A low R 2 i n d i c a t e s t h a t the dependent v a r i a b l e depends on o t h e r f a c t o r s not i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s t o e x p l a i n the v a r i a n c e . In a d d i t i o n t o a h i g h R 2, a s i g n i f i c a n t t - r a t i o , depending on the degrees of freedom, i s d e s i r a b l e so t h a t t h e r e i s an a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l of c o n f i d e n c e i n the p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s of the dependent v a r i a b l e s . 69 S t a t i s t i c a l Problems In R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s The major problem e x p e c t e d i n t h i s study i s m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . T h i s o c c u r s when a t l e a s t two of the independent v a r i a b l e s a r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d . The e f f e c t of m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s t o i n c r e a s e the s t a n d a r d e r r o r of the e s t i m a t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s and thus i n c r e a s e the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t the c o e f f i c i e n t s of the independent v a r i a b l e s w i l l not be s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from z e r o . When m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i l y i s s u s p e c t e d , the most common procedure i s t o e l i m i n a t e one of the h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s from the a n a l y s i s . .However, i f the independent v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from z e r o , the c o r r e l a t i o n between them i s not a problem. HYPOTHESES AND EXPECTED RESULTS H y p o t h e s i s 1: MFD Development(75)= f(MFD Zoned A r e a ( 7 4 ) ) In each c a s e the n u l l h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e r e i s no r e l a t i o n s h i p between the dependent v a r i a b l e , m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n 1975, and the independent v a r i a b l e s . The independent v a r i a b l e i n the f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s i s the t o t a l a r e a zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s , i r r e s p e c t i v e of the e x i s t i n g l a n d uses. G i v e n the l a r g e amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g i n the c i t y , a weak r e l a t i o n s h i p i s exp e c t e d between these v a r i a b l e s . H y p o t h e s i s 2: MFD Development(75)=f(Development P o t e n t i a l ( 7 4 ) ) A s t r o n g e r r e l a t i o n s h i p i s e x p e c t e d between m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development and development p o t e n t i a l because development 70 potential actually describes the area within which new developments can be b u i l t . As such, development potential should act as a more s i g n i f i c a n t determinant than zoning. Hypothesis 3: MFD Development(75) = f ( '•+ DEVPOT(74) + AVLOT(74) - LOCKIN(74) - IMPCST(74) ' - LANDV(74) - DEMCST(74) ? AGE(74) + EXTMFD(74) - DEVOWN(74) ? STABLE(74) + DEMAND(74)) The t h i r d hypothesis seeks to determine how much additional variance can be explained with the other non-zoning variables. It i s hypothesized that multiple family development i s a function of a v a i l a b i l i t y of land (DEVPOT), variables measuring ease of assembly (AVLOT, LOCKIN, IMPOST, LANDV, DEMCST), variables measuring physical conditions (AGE, EXTMFD), variables measuring s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (DEVOWN, STABLE), and l o c a l demand (DEMAND). A sign of the c o e f f i c i e n t for each variable i s hypothesized, as indicated above and as discussed e a r l i e r (p.53-62), A step-wise multiple regression approach is employed to test the t h i r d equation. This procedure i s used, "when a researcher wishes to isolate a subset of available predictor variables that w i l l y i e l d an optimal prediction equation with as few terms as possible" (Nie-et. al.,1975,p.345). Variables are selected for inclusion in a step-by-step procedure which evaluates the contribution of each to the t o t a l explained variance. 71 CHAPTER 4. THE RESULTS In t h i s c h a p t e r the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s are p r e s e n t e d as f o l l o w s : (1) v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g development p o t e n t i a l c o n d i t i o n s i n 1974 are examined; (2) v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g development a c t i v i t y i n 1975 i s p r e s e n t e d and compared w i t h development a c t i v i t y i n 1977; (3) d i f f e r e n c e s between development a c t i v i t y and development p o t e n t i a l a r e o b s e r v e d by s ubarea. and. by l o c a l a r e a ; and (4) the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s are e v a l u a t e d f o r each h y p o t h e s i s d e v e l o p e d i n Chapter Three. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL CONDITIONS  1974 A l t o g e t h e r , t h e r e was a t o t a l of about 990 a c r e s of l a n d zoned f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s a t the end of 1974. Of t h i s a r e a , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 540 a c r e s were a l r e a d y d e v e l o p e d w i t h m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s and 150 a c r e s were d e v e l o p e d w i t h non-c o n f o r m i n g uses. The r e m a i n i n g 300 a c r e s , d e f i n e d as development p o t e n t i a l c o n s i s t e d of 275 a c r e s of l a n d d e v e l o p e d w i t h s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s , d u p l e x e s and m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s , and 25 a c r e s of vacant l a n d . The l o c a l a r e a s where development p o t e n t i a l predominated i n c l u d e Grandview-Woodlands, Mount P l e a s a n t , the West End and F a i r v i e w . The combined acreage of development p o t e n t i a l i n t h e s e f o u r a r e a was .225 a c r e s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 75 per c e n t of the 72 t o t a l amount of development p o t e n t i a l i n the c i t y . A d d i t i o n a l l o c a l a r e a s which had over f i v e a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l i n c l u d e K i t s i l a n o , ; M a r p o l e , Sunset and Cedar C o t t a g e . The 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l c o n t a i n e d the f o l l o w i n g acreages of l a n d uses: 137.7 a c r e s of s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s , 82.5 a c r e s of m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s , 36.2 a c r e s of d u p l e x - c o n v e r s i o n s , 26.4 a c r e s of vacant l a n d and 17.8 a c r e s of d u p l e x e s . C l o s e t o 74 a c r e s of s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s were owner-o c c u p i e d , w i t h the r e m a i n i n g 64 a c r e s b e i n g o c c u p i e d by t e n a n t s . As can be e x p e c t e d , t h e s e 74 a c r e s c o n s t i t u t e d over h a l f the owner-occupied acreage. About 33 a c r e s of m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s were owner-occupied, compared t o the 50 a c r e s which were t e n a n t - o c c u p i e d . A l t o g e t h e r t h e r e were 130 a c r e s of owner-occupied h o u s i n g i n the 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l and 170 a c r e s of t e n a n t - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s . E i g h t y - s i x per cent of the 3000 p r o p e r t i e s which were determined t o be development p o t e n t i a l had l o t s i z e s l e s s than 6000 square f e e t , the minimum r e q u i r e d f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t l a n d assembly would be r e q u i r e d f o r most developments. One f i n a l o b s e r v a t i o n about development c o n d i t i o n s i n 1974 i s the s m a l l amount of vacant l a n d . Of the 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l , t h e r e was o n l y 26 a c r e s of vacant l a n d or 9 per cent of t h e t o t a l . 73 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY  1975 M u l t i p l e f a m i l y development was d e f i n e d i n the study t o i n c l u d e a l l new m u l t i p l e f a m i l y s t a r t s i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones. In 1975, t h e r e were 44 developments on 17 a c r e s which f i t the d e f i n i t i o n . The l o c a l a r e a s i n which most of the development a c t i v i t y o c c u r r e d i n c l u d e Grandview-Woodlands, Mount P l e a s a n t , the West End, F a i r v i e w and K i t s i l a n o . W i t h the e x c e p t i o n of one mixed r e s i d e n t i a l development, a l l new m u l t i p l e f a m i l y s t a r t s were apartments. A t o t a l of 1257 d w e l l i n g s u n i t s were b u i l t , w i t h an average, of 29 u n i t s per b u i l d i n g . The maximum number of u n i t s i n a development s t a r t e d i n 1975 was 60. I t s h o u l d be r e c a l l e d t h a t 1975 was a year w i t h a low l e v e l of development a c t i v i t y . The d i f f e r e n c e between the number of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y u n i t s t a r t s i n d i c a t e d f o r 1975 i n Table I I and the f i g u r e from t h i s s tudy i s 432. The f a c t o r t h a t a c c o u n t s f o r most of the d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t the study does not i n c l u d e any m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development o u t s i d e of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones. The new l o t s i z e s range from 6000 square f e e t t o 31000 square f e e t , w i t h 70 per ce n t of a l l developments h a v i n g l o t s i z e s between 11000 and 26000 square f e e t . An average of 2.7 p r o p e r t i e s were assembled f o r each development p r o j e c t . In o t h e r words, 118 o l d s i t e s were used t o d e v e l o p 44 new p r o p e r t i e s . The two most f r e q u e n t l y r e d e v e l o p e d p r o p e r t i e s were s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s (48 p r o p e r t i e s ) and m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n 74 d w e l l i n g s (46 p r o p e r t i e s ) . The r e m a i n i n g o l d p r o p e r t i e s i n c l u d e 13 vacant s i t e s , 3 p a r k i n g l o t s , 1 i n d u s t r i a l s i t e and 1 mixed r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y . . 1977 There were 55 m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s s t a r t s i n 1977 which f i t the d e f i n i t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development, an i n c r e a s e of 25 per c e n t over developments i n 1975. The new developments occupy 10 a c r e s , or 37 per c e n t l e s s p r o p e r t y than i n 1975. There was l e s s acreage d e v e l o p e d i n each l o c a l a r e a except Marpole and development was c o n c e n t r a t e d i n fewer a r e a s than i n 1975. The g r e a t e s t number of a c r e s d e v e l o p e d i n 1977 i n a l o c a l a r e a was 3.1 compared t o 4.9 a c r e s d e v e l o p e d i n Grandview-Woodlands i n 1975. L o c a l a r e a s which r e c e i v e d development i n 1977 i n c l u d e , i n d e c r e a s i n g o r d e r of a c r e a g e , F a i r v i e w , Grandview-Woodlands, K i t s i l a n o , the West End, Marpole and West P o i n t Grey. There was a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n the v a r i e t y of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y developments from 1975, w i t h 45 a p a r t m e n t s , 6 townhouses and 4 mixed r e s i d e n t i a l - c o m m e r c i a l developments. A t o t a l of 1999 d w e l l i n g s u n i t s were s t a r t e d , w i t h the average number of u n i t s per development b e i n g 36. The maximum u n i t s per apartment b u i l t i n 1977 was 111. The new l o t s i z e s range from 4400 t o 68000 square f e e t , w i t h the most f r e q u e n t l y o c c u r r i n g new l o t s i z e b e i n g s l i g h t l y above 6000 square f e e t and the average new l o t s i z e b e i n g 18600 square f e e t . I t r e q u i r e d an average l a n d assembly of 3.4 p r o p e r t i e s f o r each development s t a r t e d i n 1977 compared t o the 75 average of 2.7 p r o p e r t i e s i n 1975. As i n 1975, the most f r e q u e n t l y r e d e v e l o p e d p r o p e r t i e s were s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s w i t h 93 l o t s and m u l t i p l e c o n v e r s i o n d w e l l i n g s w i t h 58 l o t s . These a r e f o l l o w e d i n o r d e r of number of p r o p e r t i e s by d u p l e x e s (1 0 ) , vacant s i t e s ( 1 0 ) , apartments ( 5 ) , i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s ( 5 ) , two townhouses and one p a r k i n g l o t . 1974 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND 1975 DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY A l l 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l were i n c l u d e d i n 67 subareas. The amount of development p o t e n t i a l i n t h e s e subareas ranges from .07 a c r e s t o 27.23 a c r e s w i t h an average of 4.5 a c r e s i n each subarea. Of t h e s e 67 subareas, o n l y 20 r e c e i v e d m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The lowe s t amount of development p o t e n t i a l i n a subarea i n which t h e r e was development a c t i v i t y was 1.5 a c r e s . However, the average acreage of development p o t e n t i a l i n the 20 subareas was 10.4 a c r e s . The g r e a t e s t amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n any subarea was 1.6 a c r e s , w i t h the average b e i n g s l i g h t l y l e s s than h a l f t h a t amount. The i n t e r e s t i n g s t a t i s t i c i s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between development p o t e n t i a l and development a c t i v i t y . The g r e a t e s t p e rcentage of development a c t i v i t y t o development a c t i v i t y i s 26 per cent but t h i s f i g u r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r than the next g r e a t e s t per ce n t of 15. The p e r c e n t a g e s range from 1 t o 26, w i t h an average of 7 per c e n t . At a l a r g e r s c a l e , 16 l o c a l a r e a s c o n t a i n e d the 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l . One t h i r d of the a v a i l a b l e l a n d was l o c a t e d i n Grandview-Woodlands, w i t h the r e m a i n i n g 200- a c r e s 76 l o c a t e d m a i n l y i n 6 l o c a l a r e a s , Mount P l e a s a n t , the West End, F a i r v i e w , K i t s i l a n o , Marpole and Sunset (see T a b l e I I I ) . T a b l e I I I : Development & Development P o t e n t i a l In A cres L o c a l Areas Development Development P e r c e n t P o t e n t i a l West P o i n t Grey 1 .62 K i t s i l a n o 16.55 1 .74 11% F a i r v i e w 35.97 2.29 6% Mount P l e a s a n t 50.66 3.22 6% S t r a t h c o n a .07 - -Grandview 1 01.60 4.87 5% Marpole 10.57 .22 2% -West End 37.29 2.70 7% Arbutus Ridge 1.16 - -K e r r i s d a l e .99 - -South Cambie 1 .47 .38 26% Cedar C o t t a g e 8.57 1.10 13% CBD. 1 .30 - -R i l e y Park 1.11 -Sunset 9.19 - -H a s t i n g s - S u n r i s e 4.16 "• - -T o t a l 282.28 16.52 5% Development o c c u r r e d i n 8 of the 16 l o c a l a r e a s . The a c r e s of development range i n s i z e from .22 a c r e s i n Marpole t o 4.9 a c r e s i n Grandview-Woodlands. The r e l a t i o n s h i p of development p o t e n t i a l t o development a c t i v i t y i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t at the subarea l e v e l , w i t h p e r c e n t a g e s r a n g i n g from 2 t o 26 and the average b e i n g 9.5 per c e n t . The o v e r a l l p r o p o r t i o n of development a c t i v i t y t o development p o t e n t i a l i s 5 per c e n t , w i t h 17 a c r e s of development and 300 a c r e s of development p o t e n t i a l . 77 MULTIPLE REGRESSION RESULTS The purpose of the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n was t o determine more p r e c i s e l y , the n a t u r e of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development and the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the L o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . The d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s show t h a t t h e r e was a r e l a t i o n s h i p between development p o t e n t i a l and development a c t i v i t y , s i n c e the g r e a t e s t amount of development a c t i v i t y o c c u r r e d i n a r e a s w i t h the most development p o t e n t i a l . What the r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s hopes t o answer i s how s i g n i f i c a n t . a d e t e r m i n a n t i s development p o t e n t i a l . compared t o o t h e r i n f l u e n c i n g f a c t o r s i n a d e v e l o p e r ' s l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . As a n t i c i p a t e d , the z o n i n g v a r i a b l e s were the most s i g n i f i c a n t of the independent v a r i a b l e s i n e x p l a i n i n g the v a r i a t i o n i n . the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y s t a r t s . The r e s u l t s of the t h r e e hypotheses are as f o l l o w s : H y p o t h e s i s 1: MFD DEVELOPMENT = (0.67)MDF ZONED LAND R 2=.44 A d j u s t e d R 2=.43 t= 7 . l 9 F=51.65 Both the t and F v a l u e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 95 per cent c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l , making i t p o s s i b l e t o r e j e c t the n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e r e i s no r e l a t i o n s h i p between the amount of .zoned m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d and m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development by subarea. The a d j u s t e d R 2 or 'goodness of f i t ' i n d i c a t e s t h a t the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d e x p l a i n s 43 per cent of the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of Table IV: Correlation Matrix CDFAREA PTFACRE DEVPOT LANDV IMPOST DEMCST EXTMFD AVLOT DEVOWN AGE STABLE LOCKIN CDFAREA 1 OOOOO 0 66542 0 66507 0 22567 0 142 1 1 0 14008 0 5093 1 0 59825 0 50939 -0 25882 -0 3G074 0 079G2 PTFACRE 0 66542 1 OOOOO 0 77998 0 45704 O 3 1934 0 12131 0 8907 1 O 544 18 0 47737 -0 38686 - 0 51619 O 4 4 / 6 0 DEVPOT 0 66507 0 77998 1 OOOOO 0 23777 O 12634 0 26776 0 46847 O 74680 0 8 1443 -0 23642 - 0 36830 0 18443 LANDV 0 22567 0 45704 0 23777 1 OOOOO 0 70307 0 23666 0 50150 O 31655 0 13548 -0 16843 - 0 42484 0 42270 IMPCST 0 1421 1 0 31934 0 12634 0 70307 1 OOOOO -0 15 149 0 38 174 O 18262 0 04 154 -0 077 1 1 -o 39874 O 36866 DEMCST O 14008 0 12131 O 26776 0 23666 - 0 15149 1 OOOOO -0 02594 0 27 106 0 28767 0 05069 -o 02966 - 0 1 1 132 EXTMFD 0 50931 0 89071 0 46847 0 50150 0 38174 -0 02594 1 OOOOO 0 31 1 19 0 19181 -0 44687 - 0 49148 0 53248 AVLOT O 59825 0 544 18 0 74680 0 31655 0 18262 0 27 106 0 3 1119 1 OOOOO 0 86265 -0 16359 - 0 4 1656 0 1552 1 DEVOWN 0 50939 0 47737 O 8 1443 0 13548 0 04 154 0 28767 0 19181 0 86265 1 OOOOO -0 12154 -o 28629 0 06062 AGE -0 25882 - 0 38686 - 0 23642 - 0 16843 -0 0771 1 0 05069 -0 44687 -0 16359 -0 12 154 1 OOOOO 0 45310 - 0 37847 STABLE -o 36074 -0 51619 -0 36830 - 0 42484 -0 39874 -0 02966 -0 49 148 -0 4 1656 -0 28629 0 45310 1 OOOOO -o 32078 LOCKIN O 07962 0 44760 0 18443 0 42270 0 368G6 -0 1 1 132 0 53248 0 1552 1 0 06062 -0 37847 - 0 32078 1 OOOOO DEMAND O 44 183 0 78 1 14 0 36920 0 59723 0 5 1390 -0 13R29 0 8992 1 0 25092 0 12044 -0 40200 -0 50181 0 58048 CDFAREA PTFACRE DEVPOT LANDV IMPCST DEMCST EXTMFD AVLOT DEVOWN AGE STABLE LOCKIN DEMAND DEMAND 0 .44183 0 .781 14 O.36920 O.59723 O.51390 - O . 1 3 8 2 9 O.89921 O.25092 0 .12044 - 0 . 4 0 2 0 0 -0 .50181 O.58048 1.OOOOO -0 CO 79 m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The s t a n d a r d i z e d b e t a c o e f f i c i e n t i s used t o e x p l a i n the r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h of the independent v a r i a b l e s r a t h e r than the o r d i n a r y c o e f f i c e n t f o r c o m p a r a t i v e p u r p o s e s . T h i s i s h i g h e r than a n t i c i p a t e d . A weak e x p l a n a t o r y a b i l i t y was expected, here because the independent v a r i a b l e i n c l u d e d a l l e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y l a n d use. H y p o t h e s i s 2: MFD DEVELOPMENT = (0.67)DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL R 2=.44 A d j u s t e d R 2=.43 t=7 . l 8 F=51.55 T h i s r e s u l t was s u r p r i s i n g because i t was so s i m i l a r t o the f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s . The n u l l h y p o t h e s i s can be r e j e c t e d a t a 95 per c e n t c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l and the a d j u s t e d . R 2 i n d i c a t e s t h a t the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of development p o t e n t i a l e x p l a i n s 43 per cent of the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. One f a c t o r which h e l p s t o e x p l a i n the s i m i l a r i t y i n the r e s u l t s of the f i r s t two hypotheses i s the h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between development p o t e n t i a l and m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d (.78). T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t the p r o p o r t i o n of development p o t e n t i a l i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones i s f a i r l y c o n s i s t e n t t hroughout the c i t y , w i t h t h e l a r g e r zones h a v i n g more development p o t e n t i a l . 80 H y p o t h e s i s 3: MFD STARTS = (0.32)DEVPOT + •(0.40)EXTMFD - (0.23)LOCKIN + (0.27)AVLOT B F t DEVPOT 0.24 5.28 2.29 EXTMFD 0.17 12.90 3.59 LOCKIN -0.14 5.49 . 2.34 AVLOT . 8.71 4.63 2.15 ( C o n s t a n t ) -0.64 R 2=.56 A d j u s t e d R 2=.53 Of the e l e v e n v a r i a b l e s e n t e r e d i n t o the s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , f o u r were s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 95 per c e n t c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l . With the r e m a i n i n g seven v a r i a b l e s , i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o r e j e c t the n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t b i s e q u a l t o z e r o . The a d d i t i o n a l independent v a r i a b l e s r a i s e the a d j u s t e d R 2 v a l u e t o .53, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t the t h r e e v a r i a b l e s , EXTMFD, LOCKIN and AVLOT e x p l a i n 10 per c e n t of the v a r i a t i o n , i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The s t a n d a r d i z e d r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s or b e t a w e i g h t s e x p l a i n the r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h of each independent v a r i a b l e . The l a r g e s t c o e f f i c i e n t i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the a c r e s of e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. T h i s f i n d i n g makes i n t u i t i v e sense s i n c e m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i s l i m i t e d t o m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones. T h e r e f o r e new developments occur i n a r e a s w i t h e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. Average l o t s i z e has the t h i r d l a r g e s t r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t and i s , p o s i t i v e as was e x p e c t e d . Development i s more l i k e l y t o occur i n subareas w i t h h i g h e r average l o t s i z e s , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t l e s s l a n d assembly i s r e q u i r e d i n new development. 81 The p e r c e n t a g e of l o c k e d - i n l o t s i s the f i n a l v a r i a b l e t o be i n c l u d e d i n the r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n a t a 95 per cent c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l . I t s beta c o e f f i c i e n t i s -0.23. The n e g a t i v e n a t u r e of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p , was as ex p e c t e d w i t h a g r e a t e r percentage of l o c k e d - i n l o t s l e a v i n g l e s s development p o t e n t i a l and c o n s e q u e n t l y , l e s s development a c t i v i t y . There i s a f a i r l y h i g h degree of a s s o c i a t i o n (.75) between average l o t s i z e and development p o t e n t i a l which might suggest m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . The problem w i t h m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s t h a t i t i n c r e a s e s the s t a n d a r d e r r o r which i n c r e a s e s the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t some of the v a r i a b l e s w i l l be i n s i g n i f i c a n t . . S i n c e o n l y the s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s remain i n the e q u a t i o n m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y does not pose a problem. The f a c t t h a t seven v a r i a b l e s were not i n c l u d e d i n the e q u a t i o n because t h e i r b v a l u e s wer.e i n s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from z e r o does not n e c e s s a r i l y mean t h a t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a r e not imp o r t a n t i n r e a l i t y . I t c o u l d be t h a t the s i z e of the sample i s t oo s m a l l t o see any p a t t e r n emerging from the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the v a r i a b l e s . M u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y between the independent v a r i a b l e s may have caused them t o be i n s i g n i f i c a n t even though they may have e x p l a i n e d some of the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. Measurement problems may a l s o have been p r e s e n t , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h the c o s t d a t a . F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s might h e l p t o c l a r i f y some the s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . A l t h o u g h the r e s u l t s of the e q u a t i o n e x h i b i t s a t i s f a c t o r y e x p l a n a t o r y powers, one s h o u l d be h e s i t a n t about u s i n g these parameters f o r p r e d i c t i o n p u r p o s e s . N e i t h e r the s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l nor the R 2 v a l u e a r e h i g h enough t o f e e l r e a s o n a b l y 82 c o n f i d e n t about any p r e d i c t i o n r e s u l t s . I t would a l s o be a d v i s a b l e not t o e x t r a p o l a t e u s i n g o n l y a s i n g l e group of d a t a . The major d i f f e r e n c e between the r e s u l t of t h i s a n a l y s i s and those of Bourne and B e r r i d g e (1973) i s the much s t r o n g e r i n f l u e n c e of the z o n i n g v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s s t u d y . E x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zones and development p o t e n t i a l b oth e x p l a i n e d more of the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development i n Vancouver than the e x p l a n a t o r y power of a l l the independent v a r i a b l e s i n the Toronto s t u d y . Except f o r the p e r c e n t a g e of e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development, none of the s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s i n Bourne's study a r e s i g n i f i c a n t i n the Vancouver a n a l y s i s . The d i f f e r e n c e s i n the two s t u d i e s a r e caused m a i n l y by the e a r l y development and c o n t i n u e d s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g i n Vancouver compared t o the more i n c r e m e n t a l z o n i n g p o l i c i e s i n T o r o n t o . 83 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSIONS T h i s study examined e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s as a method which p l a n n e r s c o u l d use t o c o n t r i b u t e t o a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the use of z o n i n g . I t was assumed e a r l y i n the study t h a t the major i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g was on the l o c a t i o n of new m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development and t h a t the market, t h r o u g h s u p p l y and demand f a c t o r s , d e c i d e d the t o t a l volume of development. The q u e s t i o n then t h a t the study a t t e m p t e d t o answer was, What are the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t a t t r a c t m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development t o c e r t a i n a r e a s and not t o o t h e r s ? The d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e d t h a t a f a i r l y s m a l l p e r c e n t a g e of the t o t a l acreage of development p o t e n t i a l r e c e i v e d development i n 1975. A l t h o u g h the low p e r c e n t a g e of development a c t i v i t y might l e a d one t o s u s p e c t t h a t z o n i n g i s not an i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e i n a d e v e l o p e r ' s l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n i n 1975, the r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t the s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n i n z o n i n g or development p o t e n t i a l e x p l a i n s over f o r t y per cent of the s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development a c t i v i t y . The amount of v a r i a t i o n e x p l a i n e d by z o n i n g i s over f o u r times g r e a t e r than the amount e x p l a i n e d by the t h r e e o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t independent v a r i a b l e s . These t h r e e v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e the p e r c e n t a g e of e x i s t i n g m u l t i p l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s , average l o t s i z e , and the p e r c e n t a g e of l o c k e d - i n l o t s . A l t h o u g h t h e s e v a r i a b l e s were a l l s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 95 per c e n t c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l , the amount of v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development t h a t the t h r e e 84 v a r i a b l e s c o u l d e x p l a i n was o n l y 10 per c e n t . While t h e s e r e s u l t s c o n f i r m t h a t t h r o u g h z o n i n g , p l a n n e r s have a ve r y p o w e r f u l t o o l , a s i n g l e a n a l y s i s Of t h i s type cannot d e f i n e a p r e c i s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between z o n i n g and development which p o l i c y - m a k e r s c o u l d use t o det e r m i n e how much zoned l a n d i s n e c e s s a r y so as not t o c o n s t r a i n development. What i s however i n t e r e s t i n g i s t h a t the amount of development p o t e n t i a l appears by o b s e r v a t i o n t o be p l e n t i f u l and y e t i t can e x p l a i n the v a r i a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development f o u r times b e t t e r than a l l o t h e r f a c t o r s i n c l u d e d i n the e q u a t i o n . IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY AND ANALYSIS The f i n d i n g s of t h i s study a re r e a s o n a b l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h o t h e r r e c e n t work on apartment redevelopment (Bourne,1973; McCann,1975; Moore,1973) which s u g g e s t s t h a t the s u b j e c t i s t o o complex t o f i t the s i m p l i s t i c , g e n e r a l i z e d models of s p a t i a l p a t t e r n i n g now employed. Most t r a d i t i o n a l models are i n c a p a b l e of f u l l y i d e n t i f y i n g the p r o c e s s e s of change i n urban a r e a s and are c o n s e q u e n t l y , a t b e s t , o n l y weak d e s c r i p t o r s of the e x i s t i n g s t r u c t u r e . What i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y o b v i o u s i s the l i m i t a t i o n s of any l a n d use model i n p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e development. A l a n d use model must f i r s t be a b l e t o e x p l a i n c o n d i t i o n s r e a s o n a b l y w e l l b e f o r e i t s h o u l d be used f o r p r e d i c t i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , even i f the model does e x h i b i t a r e a s o n a b l y good e x p l a n a t o r y a b i l i t y , the p a t t e r n of urban l a n d use change i s not w e l l u n d e r s t o o d , making i t d i f f i c u l t t o r e l y on p a s t c o n d i t i o n s t o e s t i m a t e 85 f u t u r e development. A f u r t h e r q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n i n g urban l a n d use models i s whether t h e i r r e s u l t s can be g e n e r a l i z e d t o o t h e r c i t i e s . W h i l e some of the f i n d i n g s of t h i s study a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h Bourne's a n a l y s i s of apartment redevelopment i n T o r o n t o (1973) and McCann's r e s u l t s i n Edmonton (1975), a comparison of s i m i l a r s t u d i e s i n Toronto and Vancouver i n d i c a t e s t h a t c o n d i t i o n s between c i t i e s v a r y such a g r e a t d e a l and changes occur so r a p i d l y t h a t one would be h e s i t a n t t o suggest t h a t such r e s u l t s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of o t h e r urban c e n t r e s . The l i m i t a t i o n s of urban s p a t i a l models mentioned h e r e , namely t h e i r weak p r e d i c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y and t h e i r l a c k of u n i v e r s a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , s h o u l d not d i s c o u r a g e the r e s e a r c h e r from c o n t i n u i n g urban a n a l y s i s . As the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o measure some changes and c a l c u l a t e the impact of p u b l i c p o l i c i e s i n an urban s e t t i n g . Research even of t h i s s i m p l e type can p r o v i d e a v a l u a b l e a i d t o p l a n n e r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i f i t i s c a r r i e d out over a number of y e a r s and e s p e c i a l l y when one c o n s i d e r s t h a t so l i t t l e of even t h i s s i m p l e type of a n a l y s i s i s undertaken a t a l l . The most s i g n i f i c a n t i m p l i c a t i o n of t h e s e l i m i t a t i o n s of l a n d use models i s the need t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d the p r o c e s s e s of urban change. As was i n d i c a t e d i n Chapter Three, the p a t t e r n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development has been v e r y c o n s i s t e n t i n Vancouver. Thus, at a macro s c a l e , we can be r e a s o n a b l y a s s u r e d t h a t the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development w i l l remain s i m i l a r t o the p r e s e n t , u n l e s s d r a s t i c changes i n z o n i n g p o l i c y are implemented, as i s i n c r e a s i n g l y d i s c u s s e d i n the c i t y . 86 I t i s the p r o c e s s e s of changes o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n the broad p a t t e r n s t h a t r e q u i r e more d e t a i l e d e x a m i n a t i o n . T h i s can be a c c o m p l i s h e d o n l y through l o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d i e s . An e x a m i n a t i o n of the changes i n develoment over a p e r i o d of y e a r s would h o p e f u l l y h e l p t o i d e n t i f y a p a t t e r n i n urban l a n d use change which c o u l d a s s i s t p o l i c y - m a k e r s w i t h r e l a t e d d e c i s i o n s . A v a r i e t y of methods s h o u l d be employed t o study t h e s e changes. These w i l l be examined l a t e r i n the c h a p t e r . IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING The purpose of t h i s s tudy was t o c o n t r i b u t e t o a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of urban l a n d use change which c o u l d a s s i s t p l a n n e r s w i t h r e l a t e d p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , the a n a l y s i s i n p a r t attempted t o more p r e c i s e l y d e f i n e an "adequate" amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d n e c e s s a r y not t o c o n s t r a i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. The l i m i t a t i o n of the s t u d y t o one year p r e v e n t s any c o n t r i b u t i o n t o an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of urban l a n d use change. One o b s e r v a t i o n however, taken from a comparison of 1975 and 1977 development a c t i v i t y i s t h a t measurement of development p o t e n t i a l i n a c r e s may be not be a c c u r a t e enough t o be of g r e a t a s s i s t a n c e i n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s . The number of development p r o j e c t s , i n c r e a s e d between 1975 and 1977 by 25 per c e n t w i t h a 63 per c e n t i n c r e a s e i n the number of d w e l l i n g u n i t s c o n s t r u c t e d . These i n c r e a s e s o c c u r r e d on 37 per c e n t l e s s l a n d ! T h i s s u g gests t h a t by i n c r e a s i n g p e r m i t t e d d e n s i t i e s , p o l i c y -makers c o u l d i n c r e a s e the amount of development p o t e n t i a l . T h i s i n t u r n , would i n f l u e n c e the number of a c r e s of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y 87 zoned l a n d needed f o r development. T h e r e f o r e the f l o o r a r e a r a t i o s a r e r e q u i r e d t o p r o p e r l y a s s e s s the impact of z o n i n g . The r e s e a r c h was u n s u c c e s s f u l i n the sense t h a t i t c o u l d not p r e c i s e l y d etermine i f the p r e s e n t amount of development p o t e n t i a l was c o n s t r a i n i n g the volume of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development. Even i f t h i s a n a l y s i s was c o n t i n u e d over a number of y e a r s , the r e s u l t s of a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n c o u l d not be used t o c o n c l u d e on the adequacy of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned land.- Such a c o n c l u s i o n c o u l d perhaps be drawn u s i n g a v a r i e t y of s t u d i e s and the knowledge of the p o l i c y - m a k e r . The r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be of a s s i s t a n c e t o p l a n n e r s and p o l i c y - m a k e r s because they i n d i c a t e the s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e of what appears t o be a l a r g e amount of development p o t e n t i a l . I f , over a p e r i o d of y e a r s , d e v e l o p e r s c o n t i n u e d t o b u i l d u s i n g the same p e r c e n t a g e of development p o t e n t i a l , the amount of development would decrease each year u n l e s s t h e r e was a c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n c r e a s e i n m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d . The C i t y P l a n n i n g Department C o u l d use i n f o r m a t i o n on the average amount of development p o t e n t i a l needed t o a l l o w a c e r t a i n amount of development i n o r d e r t o f o r c a s t the number of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y u n i t s which c o u l d be b u i l t u s i n g the c u r r e n t development p o t e n t i a l . At the p r e s e n t , development i s c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g the t o t a l amount of a v a i l a b l e l a n d . W h i l e i t i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e t h a t a l l a v a i l a b l e a r e a c o u l d be de v e l o p e d , r e a l i s t i c a l l y i t i s h i g h l y u n l i k e l y . F o l l o w i n g up t h i s a n a l y s i s c o u l d h e l p p r o v i d e r e a l i s t i c e s t i m a t e s of the amount of development p o t e n t i a l n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o a l l o w a c e r t a i n amount of development. 88 LIMITATIONS As w i t h most e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s e s , the weaknesses of the study l i m i t any e x t e n s i v e a p p l i c a t i o n of the r e s u l t s . Problems w i t h the da t a were s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h r e e ways. The f i r s t was t h a t the a n a l y s i s was r e s t r i c t e d t o one y e a r , p r e v e n t i n g any o b s e r v a t i o n s about changes between y e a r s . The two y e a r s chosen f o r the a n a l y s i s , 1975 and 1977, were y e a r s f o r which development d a t a were both r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e and had comparable v a r i a b l e measurements. However, i t was c o m p l e t e l y unexpected t h a t t h e r e would be any problems o b t a i n i n g the da t a from the *1976 P r o p e r t y Tax F i l e t o e s t a b l i s h development p o t e n t i a l c o n d i t i o n s a f f e c t i n g 1977 development a c t i v i t y . The l o s s was a setba c k t o the. s t u d y , but a t the same time i t p r e s e n t s a f o r c e f u l message about the d i f f i c u l t i e s of u s i n g e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s e s i n p l a n n i n g r e s e a r c h . The second problem w i t h the da t a was the measurement of c e r t a i n v a r i a b l e s . As mentioned p r e v i o u s l y , the c a l c u l a t i o n of development p o t e n t i a l i n a c r e s does not r e p r e s e n t the d e n s i t y f a c t o r and i s , c o n s e q u e n t l y , not a good e s t i m a t e of the ' t r u e ' development p o t e n t i a l e x i s t i n g i n the c i t y . A l t h o u g h the v a l u e d a t a were j u s t i f i e d on the grounds t h a t they were r e l a t i v e l y c o n s i s t e n t , the v a l u e s do not bear much resemblence t o market v a l u e s and t h e r e f o r e cannot a c c u r a t e l y r e p r e s e n t a d e v e l o p e r ' s s i t u a t i o n when a s s e s s i n g v a r i o u s l o c a t i o n s . The a n a l y s i s would have t o be r e p e a t e d u s i n g a year i n which the a s s e s s e d v a l u e s r e p r e s e n t market v a l u e s b e f o r e making o b s e r v a t i o n about the r e l a t i v e importance of v a l u e and 8.9 c o s t f a c t o r s i n a d e v e l o p e r ' s l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . ,;, The t h i r d problem l i e s i n the l e v e l of a g g r e g a t i o n employed. The l i m i t e d number of o b s e r v a t i o n s i n the study a r e a l e a v e s one w i t h l e s s c o n f i d e n c e i n the r e s u l t s . A l a r g e r sample u s u a l l y can more c l e a r l y i d e n t i f y a p a t t e r n w i t h l e s s e r r o r i n v o l v e d . These r e l a t i o n s h i p s can be i l l u s t r a t e d u s i n g s c a t t e r g r a m s which p l o t the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of the independent v a r i a b l e s t o the dependent v a r i a b l e . F i n a l l y , i f i t had been known from the. s t a r t t h a t an a n a l y s i s of . o n l y one time p e r i o d would be p o s s i b l e , i t would have been p r e f e r r a b l e t o choose a year w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h l e v e l of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development a c t i v i t y . Such a year might have p r o v i d e d a c l e a r e r i n d i c a t i o n of the d e t e r m i n a n t s of s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n i n development and the r o l e of z o n i n g i n t h i s c o n t e x t . Some of t h e s e problems a r e p o s s i b l e t o r e c t i f y ; o t h e r s are n o t . R e s e a r c h e r s must a c c e p t t h e s e f r u s t r a t i o n s , work around them and r e c o g n i z e the l i m i t a t i o n s of the r e s u l t i n g a n a l y s i s . DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH The r e s u l t s of t h i s e x a m i n a t i o n suggest c o n t i n u e d r e s e a r c h i n t h r e e d i r e c t i o n s . These i n c l u d e i n c r e a s e d emphasis on the d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s , v e r i f i c a t i o n of the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , and a survey of d e v e l o p e r s ' e s t i m a t e s of the 'adequacy' of z o n i n g . D e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s s h o u l d never be i g n o r e d . They a r e p a r t i c u l a r i l y u s e f u l because they can be compared between y e a r s , p r o v i d e d the u n i t of measurement remains the same. An a n a l y s i s 90 of year by year changes i n the p r o p o r t i o n of development p o t e n t i a l used f o r development i s p o s s i b l e u s i n g o n l y d e s c r i p t i v e d a t a and c o u l d be v e r y h e l p f u l t o p o l i c y - m a k e r s . A second d i r e c t i o n f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h would be a v e r i f i c a t i o n . o f . t h e r e s u l t s of the p r e s e n t a n a l y s i s . One means of v e r i f y i n g t h e s e r e s u l t s which i s r e a d i l y p o s s i b l e w i t h the Vancouver C i t y d ata i s not t o aggregate the d a t a t o the subarea l e v e l as has been done i n t h i s s tudy but t o do a d i s a g g r e g a t e d a n a l y s i s . An a n a l y s i s of i n d i v i d u a l s i t e s would a v o i d the use of subareas as a u n i t of comparison. A l t h o u g h the subareas a r e r e l a t i v e l y s i m i l a r i n s i z e , the amount of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y zoned l a n d w i t h i n each subarea i s v a r i a b l e and can t h e r e f o r e be m i s l e a d i n g . The m i c r o a n a l y s i s would i n v o l v e i d e n t i f y i n g the o l d p r o p e r t i e s t h a t were assembled f o r each m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development t o see whether the s t r e n g t h of the independent v a r i a b l e s i s the same at t h i s l e v e l as i n the more aggr e g a t e d l e v e l . I f the r e s u l t s of the two a n a l y s e s were s i m i l a r t h e r e would be j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r c o n t i n u e d r e s e a r c h a t a more agg r e g a t e d l e v e l which i s a l e s s c o s t l y type of a n a l y s i s . A t h i r d d i r e c t i o n f o r r e s e a r c h would be a survey of d e v e l o p e r s which a t t e m p t s t o q u a n t i f y how much development p o t e n t i a l d e v e l o p e r s f e e l i s n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r not t o c o n s t r a i n development a c t i v i t y . S i n c e the i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g seems t o be r e l a t i v e l y i m p o r t a n t among the f a c t o r s i n c l u d e d i n the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n , i t would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o compare the d e v e l o p e r s ' e s t i m a t e s of development p o t e n t i a l w i t h the a c t u a l f i g u r e t o u n d e r s t a n d how c l e a r i s the d e v e l o p e r ' s p e r c e p t i o n of development c o n d i t i o n s . I f a c o m p a r i s i o n of the e s t i m a t e s 91 i n d i c a t e s a l a r g e d i f f e r e n c e , then s e v e r a l s u b j e c t s f o r a n a l y s i s are suggested. An i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the cause of such d i f f e r e n c e s would be p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t as p o l i c y - m a k e r s would undoubtedly want d e v e l o p e r s t o be more a c c u r a t e l y i n f o r m e d about a v a i l a b l e development o p p o r t u n i t i e s , and v i c e v e r s a . As a c o n c l u d i n g comment, the purpose of t h i s study was t o examine e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s as a means of d e t e r m i n i n g the i n f l u e n c e of z o n i n g on the l o c a t i o n of m u l t i p l e f a m i l y development r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r d e t e r m i n a n t s . The e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s employed attempted t o observe A l o n s o ' s (1968) a d v i c e of o b j e c t i v e l y r e p o r t i n g both the f i n d i n g s and the f a i l u r e s of the study so t h a t o t h e r s c o u l d b e n e f i t from t h e s e e f f o r t s and c o n t i n u e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i n the a r e a . T h i s study c o u l d be used as a s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r o t h e r s t u d e n t s c o n t e m p l a t i n g s i m i l a r r e s e a r c h . W h i l e the a n a l y s i s d i d not suggest any c o n c l u s i v e f i n d i n g s , the i n f o r m a t i o n g a i n e d from the st u d y s h o u l d be of some a s s i s t a n c e t o p l a n n e r s and p o l i c y - m a k e r s . S i n c e i t i s not the aim of e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h t o r e p l a c e the d e c i s i o n - m a k e r , but r a t h e r t o ge n e r a t e new i n f o r m a t i o n which can a s s i s t i n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , c o n t i n u e d use of e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h has an i m p o r t a n t r o l e t o p l a y i n the p l a n n i n g f i e l d . 92 BIBLIOGRAPHY A l o n s o , W i l l i a m . " P r e d i c t i n g Best W i t h I m p e r f e c t Data". AIP J o u r n a l . Vol.34.no.4 1968. P.248-255. A l o n s o , W i l l i a m . "A Theory of the Urban Land Market". I n t e r n a l  S t r u c t u r e Of The C i t y . Ed. L a r r y S. Bourne. T o r o n t o : O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1971. p.154-159. 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Urban Growth Dynamics In A R e g i o n a l C l u s t e r Of C i t i e s . New York: John W i l e y and Sons I n c . , 1962. C r e c i n e , J . , D a v i s , o. & J a c k s o n , J . "Urban P r o p e r t y M a r k e t s : Some E m p i r i c a l R e s u l t s And T h e i r I m p l i c a t i o n s For M u n i c i p a l Z o n i n g " . J o u r n a l Of Law And Economics• Oct.1967. P.79-99. F r e d l a n d , D a n i e l R. "A Model Of R e s i d e n t i a l Change". J o u r n a l  Of R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e . V o l . 1 5 . No.2. 1975. p.199-208. G o l d b e r g , M i c h a e l A. & U l i n d e r , D a n i e l L. R e s i d e n t i a l D eveloper  B e h a v i o r : 1975. Urban Land Economics R e p r i n t No.17. F a c u l t y of Commerce and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , 1975. P.242-312. G o l d b e r g , M i c h a e l A. Deve l o p e r B e h a v i o r And Urban Growth:  A n a l y s i s And S y n t h e s i s . Urban Land Economics R e p r i n t No.44. 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