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The impacts of hydro-dams on forestry in southeastern British Columbia Szaraz, Gerard 1981

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THE IMPACTS OF HYDRO-DAMS ON FORESTRY IN SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA by GERARD SZARAZ ( B . S c , U n i v e r s i t e L a v a l , 1978) A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n : THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Resource Management Science) We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the r e q u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l 1981 (c) Gerard Szaraz, 1981 I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e head o f my department o r by h i s o r h e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f ^fesooHC.g YlftrJA<~>grH^ ta~T ^ C t g W C g The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 Date U \°>8\ n r _ C I O /"7Q ^ (Ii) ABSTRACT The purpose o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o p r o v i d e a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e r e p e r c u s s i o n s o f hydro-dam development upon f o r e s t r y i n s o u t h -e a s t e r n B r i t i s h Columbia. T h i s s t u d y d e v e l o p s a systems v i e w p o i n t , where s e l e c t e d i n d i c a t o r s - t i m b e r s u p p l y , a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n , f o r e s t l a n d v a l u e , and r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g - are examined t o h e l p p l a c e l a n d a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s w i t h i n a comprehensive framework. F i r s t , a t i m b e r s u p p l y model i s d e v e l o p e d , i n w h i c h f o r e s t l a n d w i t h d r a w a l t o hydro-dams i s s c r u t i n i z e d . The model i s t h e n expanded t o account f o r t i m b e r s u p p l y and demand r e l a t i o n s h i p s . F i n d i n g s r e v e a l t h a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50,000 h e c t a r e s o f b e t t e r t h a n average s i t e s were withdrawn from f o r e s t l a n d , a c c o u n t i n g f o r a r e d u c t i o n i n t i m b e r s u p p l y o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 180,000 c u b i c meters a n n u a l l y . Second, changes i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s due t o hydro-dam p r o j e c t s are i d e n t i f i e d i n terms o f t i m b e r s u p p l y d i s r u p t i o n , and s t r a t e g i e s f o l l o w e d t o r e - e s t a b l i s h . f o r e s t r y . M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e dams are examined t o show the importance o f a l l o c a t -i n g economic r e s o u r c e s t o f o r e s t r y f o r t h e maintenance o f t h e a c t i v i t y . ( i i i ) T h i r d , f o r e s t l a n d i s e v a l u a t e d i n f o l l o w i n g the four m e t h o d o l o g i c a l s t e p s : (1) o u t l i n e of a b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s framework, (2) d e f i n i t i o n of a g e n e r a l approach t o e v a l u a t i o n , (3) d e s c r i p t i o n of B.C. Hydro's assessment, and (4) recommendations f o r improvement. The case of the Revelstoke Dam i s examined, and i t i s concluded t h a t resource development s c e n a r i o s must take i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n timber supply and demand f a c t o r s . Fourth, r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g i s d e s c r i b e d to o u t l i n e an import-ant aspect o f short-term impact, and to express the way by which the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , B.C. Hydro and f o r e s t companies c o - o r d i n a t e d t h e i r e f f o r t s d u r i n g t h i s t r a n s i t i o n phase. The study concludes by suggesting t h a t the impacts may be a l l e v i a t e d by i n i t i a t i n g i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t .management i n areas a f f e c t e d by hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . The design o f an e f f e c t i v e system o f timber a l l o c a t i o n may a l s o permit maintenance, and p o s s i b l e improvement, of a c c e s s i b i l i t y and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s . However, the success of these a c t i o n s depends upon the a v a i l a b i l i t y of s u f f i c i e n t funding. F i n a l l y , w i t h i n a broader p e r s p e c t i v e , i t i s recommended t h a t i n t e g r a t e d resource management, as a c o n t r o l mechanism f o r l a n d a l l o c a t i o n and management, be adopted. (iv) REsumE Le but de oette these est de fournir une description des repercussions du dEveloppement hydroElectrique du bassin du fleuve Columbia (sud-est de la province de Colombie-Britannique) sur I'activity forestiere. L'adoption de I'approche systEmique permet I'examen de quatre themes d'etudes: I'approvisionnement de matEriel ligneux, acces et transport, valeur des boisEs, et dSfrichage de la zone des reservoirs. Cette perspective se situe dans une demarche intEgrEe des decisions d'amSnagement du territoire. Premier'ement, un modele d'approvisionnement du matEriel ligneux est ytabli pour permettre un examen dEtailiy de I1 abandon des boisEs au profit des barrages. Par la suite le modele est ylargi pour inclure les relations d'offre et de demande du materiel ligneux. Les rSsultats rEvelent qu'environ 50 000 hectares de sites forestiers possEdant une productivity supErieure a la moyenne furent perdus, resultant alors en une reduction du niveau annuel de coupe Equivalent a 180 000 metres cubes. En second lieu , les modifications d'accessibility et de modes de transports sont identifies en termes de rupture d'approvisionnement et de strategies permettant le re"tablissement de I'activity forestiere. L 'examen des barrages Mica et Revelstoke de"montre I 'importance de I'affectation de ressources yconomiques a la foresterie pour le maintien de cette activite. Troisiemement, I 'Evaluation forestiere est accomplie suivant quatres Etapes: 1) esquisse d'un cadre analytique de bynyfices-couts, 2) ytablissement d'une dymarche devaluation, 3) description de I'estimation de B.C. Hydro, et 4) recommandations. L'ytude du cas du barrage Revel-stoke suggere que les scynarios de dyveloppement des ressources doivent tenir compte des facteurs d'approvisionnement et de demande du matyriel ligneux. Quatriement, la description du dyfridhage de la zone des rEservoirs permet de souligner I'importance de I'impact a court terme et d'exprimer la facon dont le Forest Service, B.C. Hydro, et les compagnies coordon-nent leurs efforts durant cette phase transitoire. En conclusion, cette Etude propose I'amorce d'un amynagement forestier intensif en pEripherie des ryservoirs afin de rEduire I 'inten-sity des impacts. Egalement, la formulation d'un systeme de rEpartition du matEriel ligneux pourrait permettre le maintien et possiblement I'amElioration de I'accessibilite et des modes de transports. Cependant, le succes de ces actions nEcEssite I'attribution de fonds publics. Finalement, dans une perspective Elargie, i l est recommandE que le concept d'amynagement intygrE des ressources, dyfini comme Etant un mEcanisme de contrdle de I'amynagement et de la gestion des ressources d'un territoire, sois mis en pratique. (v) CONTENTS ABSTRACT i i RESUME i v LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES x i LIST OF MAPS x i i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT x i v INTRODUCTION 1 R a t i o n a l e 1 I n s t i t u t i o n a l Arrangements and N a t u r a l Resource Management.. 2 Land A l l o c a t i o n Between Hydro-dams and F o r e s t Resources .... 5 Hydro-dams and F o r e s t Resource I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the Kootenays.8 O b j e c t i v e s , Approach and L i m i t a t i o n s 11 CHAPTER ' I: i. ' OVERVIEW OF THE KOOTENAY REGION 18 B i o - P h y s i c a l Environment 18 Physiography 18 B i o g e o c l i m a t i c Zones 19 Hydrography 2 3 Socio-economic Environment 26 N a t u r a l Resource Development 26 Resource Base 29 CHAPTER I I : THE REDUCTION OF TIMBER SUPPLY 3 5 Methodology 35 E c o l o g i c a l B a s i s of F o r e s t Management 35 E c o l o g i c a l processes 35 P r o d u c t i v i t y 37 F o r e s t management concepts 39 (vi) A n a l y t i c a l Framework - 42 Data c o l l e c t i o n 42 Sy n t h e s i s 44 P e r s p e c t i v e of a n a l y s i s 45 Impacts Upon the Timber Supply 46 Timber Supply Model 46 F o r e s t Land Withdrawal 48 C l a s s e s of impact 48 R e s u l t s 5 3 Dynamics of the Timber Supply Model 67 Timber Supply and Demand I n t e r a c t i o n s 74 Harvest 7 8 A c c e s s i b i l i t y 79 Enhancement o f the Timber Supply 80 CHAPTER I I I : ACCESS ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION 85 Duncan Dam 87 Hugh Keenleyside Dam 90 Mica Dam 93 Timber Supply i n the Golden TSA 93 A c c e s s i b i l i t y Before F l o o d i n g 95 A c c e s s i b i l i t y A f t e r F l o o d i n g 96 West s i d e o f Kinbasket Lake 98 East s i d e of Kinbasket Lake 99 D i s c u s s i o n 103 Revelstoke Dam 107 A c c e s s i b i l i t y Before F l o o d i n g 108 Area and access 108 Companies 109 A c c e s s i b i l i t y A f t e r F l o o d i n g 113 (vii) CHAPTER IV: FOREST LAND VALUE, THE CASE OF REVELSTOKE DAM 121 A n a l y t i c a l Framework 121 Benefit-Cost Analysis 121 The concept 121 Multiple objective planning 124 Forestry Evaluation Within B e n e f i t - C o s t Analysis Framework.126 Economic costs of withdrawing forest land from productionl26 Cost evaluation of Revelstoke Dam impact on forestry....127 General Approach to Forest Land Evaluation 128 Assumptions 131 Regulated forest . 131 Even-age stand management 131 Maximum sustained y i e l d p o l i c y 132 Unit of Measurement 133 Model of Forest Land Evaluation 134 Development stages of the forest 134 Bare Land 136 Immature forest .136 Mature forest 137 B.C. Hydro's Assessment 138 Assumptions and Measurements 138 Bio-physical 138 Economic %. 138 Results of Reid, C o l l i n s and Associates Analysis 138 Bare land 139 Immature forest 140 Mature forest 141 Benefit-Cost Analysis Interpretation 141 Land .value 142 Immature timber 142 Forest land value appreciation 142 ( v i i i ) Assumptions, Data Base, and t h e i r E f f e c t s on E v a l u a t i o n . . . . 144 B i o - p h y s i c a l Assumptions 146 Economic Assumptions 147 E f f e c t s on E v a l u a t i o n 148 Market Value 152 I n t e n s i t y o f F o r e s t Management 152 L e v e l o f u t i l i z a t i o n 153 S i l v i c u l t u r e 154 CHAPTER V: RESERVOIR CLEARING 15 7 R e s e r v o i r C l e a r i n g Process 157 C l e a r i n g Method 159 Zones 159 S p e c i f i c a t i o n s 161 Procedures 162 Mica Dam 164 Removal o f Merchantable Timber 164 I n t e n s i v e C l e a r i n g Program 165 Deb r i s D i s p o s a l 166 Duncan Dam 16 9 Revelstoke Dam 171 C o n d i t i o n s P r e v a i l i n g Before Water Lice n c e Issuance 172 C l e a r i n g Program 173 Major Concerns. 175 CONCLUSION 184 BIBLIOGRAPHY 195 APPENDIX I: DATA SOURCE FOR CALCULATION OF FOREST LAND WITHDRAWAL AND LOSSES OF PRODUCTIVITY 204 ( i x ) APPENDIX I I : BEHAVIOUR OF TIMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL ...206 APPENDIX I I I : CLEARING SPECIFICATIONS FOR REVELSTOKE PROJECT.210 (x) LIST OF TABLES Table P a 9 e 1 C a l c u l a t i o n o f the p r o d u c t i v i t y i n the hydro-dam f l o o d b a s i n 55 2 F o r e s t l a n d withdrawal from hydro-dams i n the Kootenay Region 5 7 3 A c c e s s i b i l i t y i n the Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r area 100 4 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s i n the Revelstoke area 112 5 E v a l u a t i o n of Revelstoke Dam f o r e s t r y c o s t s 130 6 Volume-Age r e l a t i o n s h i p and stumpage value f o r Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area 149 ( x i ) LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e Page 1 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f employment a t major hydro-e l e c t r i c p r o j e c t s i n the Kootenay Re g i o n , 1964-1975. 33 2 The f l o w o f energy i n a f o r e s t ecosystem 38 3 D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e r o t a t i o n age from volume t o age r e l a t i o n s h i p 41 4 Timber s u p p l y model ' 49 5 Land w i t h d r a w a l diagram 54 6 R e l a t i v e a r e a s of f o r e s t s i t e s l o c a t e d i n M i c a Dam r e s e r v o i r a r e a compared t o l o c a l and r e g i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s 6 0 7 R e l a t i v e a r e a s o f f o r e s t s i t e s l o c a t e d i n R e v e l -s t o k e Dam r e s e r v o i r a r e a , compared t o l o c a l and r e g i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s 69 8,9 Maximum an n u a l a l l o w a b l e c u t , commitment and volume a c t u a l l y c u t f o r Arrowhead and K i n b a s k e t PSYU's 69 10 Timber s u p p l y and demand model 77 11 P r o d u c t i v i t y improvement from s i l v i c u l t u r e 81 12 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and l e v e l o f commitment :. r e l a t i o n s h i p i n M i c a Dam r e s e r v o i r a r e a 105 13 R e v e l s t o k e a r e a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t a l t e r n a t i v e s 115 14 P r o v i n c i a l and r e g i o n a l a c c o u n t s o f f o r e s t r y c o s t r e s u l t i n g from hydro-dam p r o j e c t s 129 15 Model of f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n 135 16 Average stumpage p r i c e s i n 1964 d o l l a r s f o r t i m b e r s o l d on Crown l a n d i n t h e N e l s o n D i s t r i c t , 1964-1979 145 ( x i i ) F i g u r e Page 17 Volume-Age r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r immature f o r e s t area 150 18 Average and marginal stumpage value d e r i v e d from Volume-Age r e l a t i o n s h i p 150 19 Average weighed stumpage p r i c e f o r mature timber i n the Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area (1964-1979) 151 20 Schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g 160 21 Water improvement p r o j e c t expenditure recovery from B.C. Hydro 180 22 G r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the timber supply and demand model 207 ( x i i i ) LIST OF MAPS Map Page 1 H y d r o e l e c t r i c developments and e l e c t r i c a l t r a n s m i s s i o n systems of the Kootenays 10 2 B i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones of the Kootenay r e g i o n 21 3 Physiography of the Kootenay r e g i o n 25 4 Mica R e s e r v o i r - access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n 94 5 Revelstoke R e s e r v o i r - access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n 110 6 Mica Dam - r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g 167 7 Duncan Dam - r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g 170 (xiv) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish t o express my s i n c e r e g r a t i t u d e t o Alan Chambers f o r h i s e n t h u s i a s t i c and c o n t i n u a l support. A l ' s f a v o u r i t e quote i s : "Resource management i s f i r s t management of people." T h i s a t t i t u d e was c e r t a i n l y expressed i n the unique dialo g u e I have shared with him which made t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n p o s s i b l e . I am grateful t o I r v i n g Fox f o r h i s d i r e c t i o n and guidance. B i l l Rees and Jim Wilson p r o v i d e d v a l u a b l e advice and c r i t i c i s m , and t o whom I am t h a n k f u l . G r a t i t u d e i s a l s o conveyed t o Jim F i s h e r and Tim McHarthy of the B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e i n Nelson, and Mike T a y l o r o f the Water Rights Branch f o r p r o v i d i n g me with r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n . I would l i k e t o extend my most s i n c e r e and sdeep a p p r e c i a t i o n to members and f r i e n d s o f "Broadway House" f o r t h e i r moral support throughout. For the e x c e l l e n c e i n the t y p i n g , c r e d i t i s due t o Bev Thompson. INTRODUCTION The purpose of t h i s study i s t o p r o v i d e a d e s c r i p t i o n of the r e p e r c u s s i o n s of hydro-dam development upon f o r e s t r y i n s outheastern B r i t i s h Columbia. T h i s study develops a systems viewpoint, where s e l e c t e d i n d i c a t o r s - timber supply, access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , f o r e s t l a n d v a l u e , and r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g - are examined t o h e l p p l a c e l a n d a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s w i t h i n a comprehensive framework. RATIONALE Concern about la n d a l l o c a t i o n among competing.resource users has grown over the years. I n c r e a s i n g demand f o r a v a r i e t y of resources over a l i m i t e d l a n d base has provoked c o n f l i c t s among v a r i o u s i n t e r e s t s . Outdated i n s t i t u t i o n s , l a c k o f methods, and a poor i n f o r m a t i o n base has o f t e n r e s u l t e d i n f a i l u r e t o r e s o l v e c o n f l i c t s . F i r s t , because there i s no c l e a r statement of o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s or a g u i d i n g mandate, the s t a t e of resource develop-ment i n B r i t i s h Columbia i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by piecemeal and ad hoc procedures. Second, methods to analyze the long term 2 e f f e c t s o f choosing a p a r t i c u l a r a l t e r n a t i v e o p t i o n are l a c k i n g . T h i r d , p o o r l y developed b a s e l i n e i n f o r m a t i o n makes i t d i f f i c u l t t o monitor pres e n t l a n d use p a t t e r n s or to p e r c e i v e the consequences of f u t u r e development s t r a t e g i e s . However, o n l y 7% o f B.C.'s t o t a l f o r e s t l a n d i s h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e , and i t i s probable t h a t l a n d given to other uses, such as hydro-dams, w i l l f u r t h e r reduce t h i s percentage. Not enough a t t e n t i o n has been given to c a l c u l a t i n g the o v e r a l l e f f e c t s o f v a r i o u s land-use programs. The i n t e r e s t i n t h i s s u b j e c t was generated by r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t : (a) Present i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements"'" f o r managing n a t u r a l resources are not s u i t e d f o r s o l v i n g complex l a n d a l l o c a t i o n problems. (b) Competition f o r l a n d a l l o c a t i o n between hydro-dams and f o r e s t resource uses i s an emerging i s s u e which i s g a i n i n g i n importance. (c) Hydro-dam and f o r e s t resource developments are s i g n i f i c a n t i n the Kootenays, and land a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t the p a t t e r n of development f o r the r e g i o n . INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND NATURAL RESOURCE M7ANAGEMENT In an e r a of e v o l v i n g s o c i a l g o a l s , the i n s t i t u t i o n s c a r r y i n g out the task of a l l o c a t i n g l a n d among users must be a d a p t i b l e . However, r e s i s t a n c e to change i n the bureau-c r a t i c apparatus c o u n t e r a c t s the p u r s u i t of optimal resource Institutional arrangement being defined by Fox (1976, p. 743) as: "...an interrelated set of entities and rules that serve to organize societies' activities so as to achieve social goals." Entities are organizations or individuals. Rules are laws, regulations, or established custom. 3 a l l o c a t i o n . Among the i d e n t i f i a b l e problems r e s u l t i n g from the way i n s t i t u t i o n s perform, the f o l l o w i n g f e a t u r e s o f i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements i n B r i t i s h Columbia p o r t r a y the c ontext o f the problem o f concern i n t h i s study: (1) c o n f l i c t i n g p r i o r i t i e s i n resource management, (2) the c e n t r a l i z a t i o n of decision-making, and (3) l i m i t e d a p p l i c a t i o n of i n t e g r a t e d r e source management s t r a t e g i e s . F i r s t , the main p r i o r i t y of resource management does not appear to be the o p t i m i z a t i o n of resource uses. A c c o r d i n g to f i e l d resource managers, such as R. Demarchi and K. Sumanic (19 80), the t r a d i t i o n a l s t r a t e g y o f p r o t e c t i n g the resource i s the number one p r i o r i t y . S i m i l a r l y , " b u r e a u c r a t i c t e r r i t -o r i a l i t y " emerges "wherein c o n f l i c t i n g agencies d e l i n e a t e , through mutual agreement, areas or s u b j e c t s which are the t e r r i t o r y o r domain o f any agency and which w i l l not be v i o l a t e d by o t h e r s " (Heayn, 1977, p. 7). The second p r i o r i t y i s t o meet e x i s t i n g commitment. T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e i n the case of f o r e s t r y where the " s e c u r i t y of tenure" i s seen as e s s e n t i a l f o r i n v e s t o r s i n the f o r e s t r y i n d u s t r y . Thus the o p t i m i z a t i o n o f resource a l l o c a t i o n to maximize s o c i a l b e n e f i t s i s a l e s s e r p r i o r i t y . Second, even i f the r e g i o n a l l e v e l i s r e c o g n i z e d as the resource a l l o c a t i o n l e v e l , important d e c i s i o n s are made i n V i c t o r i a , f o r the b e n e f i t o f the people of B.C. as a whole. In the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , at l e a s t two cases are documented on t h i s matter. In the Hope r e g i o n i n 195 8 (Department o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , 1971), and i n the Slocan V a l l e y i n 1974 4 (Slocan V a l l e y Community, 1974) r e s i d e n t s wanted t o implement community c o n t r o l o f the marketing system and c o l l e c t the stumpage fees of timber h a r v e s t i n g . In the f i r s t case, l a t e C h i e f J u s t i c e Sloan a d v i s e d a g a i n s t the p r o p o s a l , keeping i n mind t h a t : "... the timber i n t h i s u n i t (Fraser Canyon Su s t a i n e d Y i e l d Unit) belonged t o the people of the Province r a t h e r than t o the people i n Hope..." (Department of M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , 1971, p. 14) In the second case, Honourable Robert W i l l i a m s , then M i n i s t e r o f F o r e s t s , made a s i m i l a r r u l i n g , r e f u s i n g t o t u r n the stumpage fees or any ot h e r revenues over t o the Slocan V a l l e y community. In both cases i t was b e l i e v e d t h a t p r o v i n c i a l needs transcended r e g i o n a l needs. T h i r d , i n t e g r a t e d resource management as an approach t o e f f i c i e n t l a n d a l l o c a t i o n i s not f u l l y r e c o g n i z e d i n B.C. Heayn (1977), i n an e x t e n s i v e a n a l y s i s o f i n t e g r a t e d resource management i n B.C., s t r e s s e d t h a t s i n g l e use ("resource dominance") and i n s u l a r departmental i n t e r e s t s are o b s t a c l e s t o an e f f i c i e n t management o f reso u r c e s . He: mentioned t h a t even i f the: "... d e f i n i t i o n o f areas f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e implementation o f i n t e g r a t e d resource management on a r a t i o n a l b a s i s . . . " as a requirement f o r implementing resource management has been achieved i n B.C., two other necessary requirements have on l y been p a r t i a l l y met, namely: "... - c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the needs of a r e f e r -ent group f o r whom the resources of t h i s s p e c i f i e d area are t o be managed, and, 5 - some a d m i n i s t r a t i v e mechanisms a l l o w i n g development of i n t e g r a t e d resource management p l a n s , and f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e i r implementation i n t o management p r a c t i c e . " (Heayn, 1977, p. 7) However, with the promulgation of the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s Act i n 1978, the f u n c t i o n of i n t e g r a t e d resource management with r e s p e c t t o f o r e s t and range resources has been adopted. S e c t i o n 5(c) of the Act s t i p u l a t e s t h a t the M i n i s t r y i s p r o v i d e d with the f o l l o w i n g f u n c t i o n : "... t o p l a n the use d f the f o r e s t and range resources of the Crown, so t h a t the pro-d u c t i o n o f timber and forage, the har-v e s t i n g of timber, the g r a z i n g of l i v e -stock and the r e a l i z a t i o n o f f i s h e r i e s , w i l d l i f e , water, outdoor r e c r e a t i o n and other n a t u r a l resource values are c o o r d i n -ated and i n t e g r a t e d , i n c o n s u l t a t i o n and c o o p e r a t i o n with other m i n i s t r i e s and agencies o f the Crown and with the p r i v a t e s e c t o r . " (B.C., 1978, my emphasis) The development of c o o r d i n a t e d resource management plans and resource f o l i o s are s e r v i n g t h i s function."'" N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t does not appear t h a t a mechanism e x i s t s t o e n f o r c e the co-o r d i n a t i o n o f resource management between hydro-dams and f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s . LAND'ALLOCATION BETWEEN HYDRO-BAMS AND FOREST RESOURCES "...one o f the major problems the ( f o r e s t ) i n d u s t r y faces i n the years ahead i s c o n t i n -u i n g and s e r i o u s encroachment o f our f o r e s t l a n d . . . . I t i s a hard f a c t o f l i f e i n t h i s p r o v i n c e t h a t there i s not enough lan d t o go around..." B i l l Bennett, Premier of B.C., 18 A p r i l 1980. (The P r o v i n c e , 1980) For applications of the methods see, for example: ELUC (1976), and North Island Study Group (1975). 6 C e r t a i n l y , the e r a of f r o n t i e r development has come t o an end, and we cannot a v o i d f a c i n g the i s s u e s o f competition among resource users f o r a l i m i t e d l a n d base. The problem of land a l l o c a t i o n between hydro-dams and f o r e s t resources i s an eloquent example of the i s s u e . I t a r i s e s because these two resource users are mutually e x c l u s i v e and competing f o r the same land base, the v a l l e y bottoms. In 1978, hydro-dam r e s e r v o i r s and t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s -of-way accounted f o r an area o f at l e a s t 500,000 he c t a r e s (ha) (Madlung, 1979), B.C. Hydro's p r o j e c t i o n o f p o t e n t i a l I power gen e r a t i o n p r o j e c t s and t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s f o r the next ten years i n c l u d e s a f o r e s t l a n d l o s s o f up to 146,640 ha ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980). These f i g u r e s , compared t o the t o t a l f o r e s t l a n d base o f 47.3 m i l l i o n ha might appear i n s i g n i f i c a n t . How-ever, l a n d a l l o c a t e d t o hydro-dams i s c o n s i d e r e d as h i g h l y p r o d u c t i v e i n many cases, and the e f f e c t o f removing i t from f o r e s t resource use w i l l be g r e a t e r than a simply p r o p o r t i o n o f the land base removed. Furthermore: "... In making t r a d e - o f f d e c i s i o n s among c o n f l i c t i n g l a n d uses, i t must be recog-n i z e d t h a t while a s m a l l land withdrawal does not g r e a t l y reduce the t o t a l r e s o u r c e , i t may have a major i n f l u e n c e on i n d i v i d -u a l m i l l s o r communities. In most areas the timber i s f u l l y committed and a small drop i n supply c o u l d a f f e c t the v i a b i l i t y o f some m i l l s . The l o s s i n terms o f pro-d u c t i o n and employment then would be much g r e a t e r than a s u p e r f i c i a l a n a l y s i s would i n d i c a t e . . . " ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , 1980a, p. 25) The concern about f o r e s t l a n d l o s s e s t o hydro-dams emerged i n 19 76, d u r i n g the Revelstoke Dam p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , when the B.C. 7 F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the B.C. F i s h and W i l d l i f e Branch expressed t h e i r apprehension to the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the dam. Since then the problem has been aggrevated, mainly because timber shortages are i n s i g h t , p a r t i a l l y because of a reduced l a n d base, and p a r t l y duetto poor f o r e s t r y management p r a c t i c e s (e.g. u n s a t i s f a c t o r i l y r e s t o c k e d timber areas and d i s t u r b e d s t o c k i n g account f o r a p p r o x i -mately 7 p e r c e n t of the Kootenays 1 p r o d u c t i v e l a n d base ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980)). The B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e , the concerned unions, and the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y are unanimous i n s a y i n g t h a t they w i l l o f f e r s t r o n g r e s i s t a n c e t o the a l i e n a t i o n o f f o r e s t lands f o r non-timber uses. B.C. Hydro, however, has t o meet i t s p r o j e c t i o n s of e l e c t r -i c i t y demand. Moreover, some resource managers i n v o l v e d i n c o - o r d i n a t e d p l a n n i n g i n the Kootenays argue t h a t the Crown C o r p o r a t i o n i s o p e r a t i n g autonomously and t h a t hydro-dam r e s e r -v o i r s are p r i m a r i l y o r i e n t e d toward a s i n g l e purpose (Sumanic and Demarchi, 1980). They f u r t h e r add t h a t the r e l u c t a n c e o f hydro r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n the p l a n n i n g process m i t i g a t e s the success of i n t e g r a t e d resource management.^ This opinion is reinforced by Crook (1975', sec. I l l ) , by stating that: "... B.C. Hydro is allowed considerable autonomy in the planning and development of its programs and continues to exhibit a resistance to maodify its major programs in cases where adverse developmental impacts are likely to occur." The Section 53(1) of the B.C. Hydro and Power Authority Act is also revealing on this matter. 8 ^HYDRO-DAMS AND FOREST RESOURCE INTERACTIONS IN THE KOOTENAYS I have chosen t o examine l a n d a l l o c a t i o n between hydro-dams and f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s i n the Kootenay r e g i o n because o f the s i g n i f i c a n t r e p e r c u s s i o n s o f land a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s f o r these important uses upon the p a t t e r n o f development o f the r e g i o n . The Kootenay r e g i o n i s l o c a t e d i n the south-east corner o f B r i t i s h Columbia (Map 1). E s s e n t i a l l y , the r e g i o n comprises the major p a r t o f the Columbia R i v e r drainage b a s i n on the Canadian s i d e . Three d i s t i n c t p h y s i o g r a p h i c areas form the r e g i o n : the West Kootenays between the Monashee and the S e l k i r k Mount-a i n s ; the C e n t r a l Kootenays, between the S e l k i r k s and the P u r c e l l Range; and the Ea s t Kootenays, l y i n g i n the Rocky Mountain Trench. A study o f the development p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n the Kootenays observes t h a t : "...Investment i n the power and u t i l i t y s e c t o r i s a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e p a r t o f a l l investment i n the Kootenays. T h i s con-d i t i o n r e s u l t s from the n a t u r a l advantage the Region has f o r s u p p l y i n g a l a r g e share o f the Pr o v i n c e ' s h y d r o - e l e c t r i c needs. The Kootenays w i l l p l a y an i n c r e a s i n g r o l e i n the p r o v i s i o n o f hydro e l e c t r i c i t y as g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s are brought i n t o s e r v i c e a t e x i s t i n g and approved s i t e s . . . . " (Kootenay Report, 1976, p. 202) Map 1 e x h i b i t s the hydro e l e c t r i c a l developments and e l e c t r i c a l t r a n s m i s s i o n systems o f the Kootenays. The same study mentions t h a t : "... The f o r e s t r y s e c t o r o f the Kootenay Region has p l a y e d an important p a r t i n the Region's past economic development, but i t s r o l e may d e c l i n e i n a r e l a t i v e or perhaps absolute sense i n the f u t u r e . T h i s changed t r e n d c o u l d become e v i d e n t i f s t r o n g i n i t i a - ' t i v e s are not taken t o encourage b e t t e r 9 u t i l i z a t i o n o f the Region's f o r e s t r y r e -source base." (Kootenay Report, 19 76, p. 81): Wood-supply problems do indeed l i e ahead. Four Timber Supply Areas, out of seven f o r the r e g i o n , are f a c i n g severe s h o r t -t o mid-term wood-supply problems ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980). T h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l c e r t a i n l y aggravate c o n f l i c t s among com-p e t i n g resource u s e r s . In r e g a r d t o non-timber f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s , the Kootenays a t t r a c t many v i s i t o r s t r a v e l l i n g t o the major n a t i o n a l and p r o v i n c i a l parks i n the Rockies. The r e g i o n i s a l s o important f o r i t s w i l d l i f e , p a r t i c u l a r l y e l k , w h i t e - t a i l deer and bighorn sheep. The f a c t t h a t the Kootenay r e g i o n has become a major producer of h y d r o - e l e c t r i c power has r e s u l t e d i n a major l o s s of p r o d u c t i v e l a n d i n r e c e n t years. However, the e f f e c t s of hydro-dams on the f o r e s t resource go beyond the l a n d f l o o d i n g . The f o r e s t i n d u s t r y i s f a c i n g i n c r e a s i n g c o s t s due t o the d i s r u p t i o n of access t o the resource and changes i n t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n p a t t e r n s . In a d d i t i o n to the f o r e g o i n g , t h i s study may a l s o be j u s t i f i e d i n a broader p e r s p e c t i v e , by a need f o r i n t e g r a t e d water resource management i n the Kootenays i n the l i g h t of the manner by which water resources have been developed. To t h i s e f f e c t , Wilson (1973) r a i s e d the concern about the "Columbia R i v e r p r o j e c t " (the c o n s t r u c t i o n of Duncan, Hugh Keenleyside and Mica dams, r e q u i r e d by the Columbia R i v e r Treaty) by s t a t i n g t h a t : 10 MAP 1 HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENTS AND ELECTRICAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS OF THE KOOTENAYS m m u e m c D m u > P H E l l T S Cent Plant Name (and owner If not B. C. Hydro) MICA REVELSTOKE SPILLIMACHE EN WHATSHAN DUNCAN (KOOTENAY DIVERSION) HUGH KEENLEYSIDE BRILLIANT (Cominco) KOOTENAY CANAL CORRA LINN (Cominco) UPPER BONNINGTON (Cominco and City of Nelson) LOVER BONNINGTON (West Kootenay Power and Light) SOUTH SLOCAN (Cominco) ABERFELDIE ELKO (MURPHY CREEK) VANETA (Cominco) SEVEN MILE < U.S.A. """ ootenay region Legend • • J Existing or Approved Hydroelectric Site aaa Storage Dam V Potential Hydroelectric Site Source: Kootenay Report (1976, p. 20 3) 11 "... the p r o j e c t bore a l l the marks of an en g i n e e r i n g p r o j e c t d e d i c a t e d e x c l u s i v e l y to the narrow purposes of the T r e a t y . . . " and t h a t a l l the concerns o f the p r o v i n c i a l government: "...seem t o have been expressed i n the terms of a c r e - f e e t through a r o u t i n e water l i c e n c e . " (Wilson, 1973, pp. 162-163) The author f u r t h e r added t h a t there was no statement of over-a l l o b j e c t i v e s :(" statement o f concept") or g u i d i n g mandate. Farquharson, noted the same concerns i n the case o f the Mica R e s e r v o i r , made a recommendation i n terms of ge n e r a l resource management o b j e c t i v e s whereby: " . . . O v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s o f development of Crown re s o u r c e s should be d e f i n e d i n terms of c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y o f the land and i t s r e s o u r c e s , community s t a b i l i t y and the s o c i a l and economic b e n e f i t s t o be d e r i v e d f o r the dependent communities and the Pr o v i n c e as a whole." (Farquharson, 1974, p. 15) I t i s these concerns t h a t generated i n t e r e s t i n t h i s study. OBJECTIVES, APPROACH AND LIMITATIONS The purpose of t h i s study i s to pr o v i d e a d e s c r i p t i o n o f the r e p e r c u s s i o n s o f hydro-dam development upon f o r e s t r y i n southeastern B r i t i s h Columbia. T h i s study develops a systems viewpoint to help p l a c e land a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s w i t h i n a comprehensive framework. Four v a r i a b l e s are s e l e c t e d to d e s c r i b e the impacts: Timber Supply, Access Road and T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , F o r e s t Land Value, 12 and R e s e r v o i r C l e a r i n g . The f i r s t two v a r i a b l e s are examined i n a f o r e s t r y impact model t o express the r e d u c t i o n and d i s -r u p t i o n of timber supply, and to i n d i c a t e the changes i n t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s and c o s t s due to hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . The t h i r d v a r i a b l e , the economic value o f l a n d withdrawn from f o r e s t r y , i s c a l c u l a t e d and compared w i t h t h a t used i n a B.C. Hydro b e n e f i t c o s t a n a l y s i s o f the Revelstoke Dam. The f o u r t h v a r -i a b l e , R e s e r v o i r C l e a r i n g , i s s e l e c t e d to d e s c r i b e an important aspect o f short-term impact, and a l s o t o express the way i n which the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , B.C. Hydro, and the f o r e s t companies c o - o r d i n a t e d t h e i r e f f o r t d u r i n g t h i s t r a n s i t i o n phase. Among the methods a v a i l a b l e f o r the assessment of e n v i r o n -mental impacts (Canter, 1977; Szaraz, 1978), the systems approach, as a methodology of o b s e r v a t i o n o f complex problems, seems to be adequate f o r the purpose of t h i s study, as i t aims, "... to draw c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g an e n t i r e system ( i . e . a set of i n t e r - r e l a t e d elements) through an understanding of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between elements and p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e i r i n t e r a c t i o n s " (Ozbekhan, 1971, p. 136). In the systems approach, f o u r steps are fo l l o w e d to sol v e problems: (1) S e l e c t i o n o f elements to be examined> (2) D e f i n i t i o n o f the r e l a t i o n s among the elements, (3) M o d e l l i n g , (4) Systems a n a l y s i s . 13 These four steps are necessary to complete a n a l y s i s of a system (Dale, 1970). However, i n the c o n t e x t of t h i s study o n l y the f i r s t t h ree steps are f o l l o w e d . The systems a n a l y s i s , i n v o l v i n g computer s i m u l a t i o n techniques to t e s t , v a l i d a t e and improve the model, i s l e f t f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . N e v e r t h e l e s s , even as l i m i t e d , the study w i l l p r o v i d e more than merely an i n t e l l i g i b l e d e s c r i p t i o n of observed data. A w e l l s t r u c t u r e d model conveys e x p l a n a t o r y v a l u e on how the system under ob-s e r v a t i o n operates, and may b r i n g i n s i g h t to the r e l a t i o n s h i p between hydro-dams and f o r e s t r y . The f i r s t step t o f o l l o w i n a systems approach i s the s e l e c t i o n o f elements to be examined. I t determines what w i l l c o n s t i t u t e the system under o b s e r v a t i o n , and what w i l l be l e f t out ( i . e . the system's environment). In g e n e r a l the " r e l e v a n t " system can be d e s c r i b e d as the minimal set of components and i n t e r a c t i o n s necessary to e x p l a i n the behaviour or phen-omena of i n t e r e s t . The system's boundary separates these c e n t r a l elements from i t s environment. T h e r e f o r e , the systems approach permits a r e d u c t i o n of the complexity of the " r e a l world" by i s o l a t i n g a phenomenon and c o n s i d e r i n g o n l y the i n t e r -r e l a t e d components. Thus, the systems approach allows one to d e f i n e a minimum s e t of elements which would y i e l d a maximum understanding about the problem observed. Looking at land a l l o c a t i o n from a systems viewpoint without r e s t r i c t i n g the a n a l y s i s to a s p e c i f i c problem would l e a d t o a complex system. At t h i s broad l e v e l of r e s o l u t i o n 14 the purpose of the system would be to analyze socio-economic and p o l i t i c a l circumstances of r e s o u r c e development. In theory the l a n d a l l o c a t i o n system would seek to o p t i m i z e r e s o u r c e development by understanding and improving our c a p a c i t y to r e s o l v e resource-use c o n f l i c t s t o enhance s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g . However, as shown e a r l i e r i n t h i s i n t r o d u c t i o n , inadequate i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements a c t as a c o n s t r a i n t upon the e f f i c i e n c y of the system. The l a n d a l l o c a t i o n system operates as an on-going process by undertaking t h r e e major s t e p s . F i r s t , the system i s c o n t i n u o u s l y scanning i t s environment by o b s e r v i n g the changes i n demand f o r v a r i o u s r e s o u r c e s , and i t gathers the necessary and s u f f i c i e n t elements to d e s i g n s t r a t e g i e s . Second, the system i n v e s t i g a t e s i t s supply of r e s o u r c e s to meet the demand and improving i t s own performance. Here again, the d e f i n i t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e land a l l o c a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s may be c u r t a i l e d by i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a r r i e r s such as i n s u l a r d e p a r t -mental i n t e r e s t s and/or inadequate t a x a t i o n and p r i c i n g p o l i c y . T h i r d , the a c t o r o p e r a t i n g the system (e.g. p r o v i n c i a l c a b i n e t , r e g i o n a l r esource management committee, or B.C. Hydro) w i l l s e l e c t s t r a t e g i e s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the promotion of i t s own i n t e r e s t . Here too, the avowed o b j e c t i v e (maximize s o c i a l welfare) of the actormay be d i f f e r e n t than the r e a l o b j e c t i v e . 15 Taking f o r example lan d a l l o c a t i o n w i t h i n a r i v e r system, i n d i v i d u a l elements would i n c l u d e the whole range of land con-suming r e s o u r c e s ( i . e . b i o - p h y s i c a l components p e r c e i v e d as being a b l e to s a t i s f y needs) such as water f o r i r r i g a t i o n , f i s h e r i e s , r e c r e a t i o n and h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y ; f o r e s t s f o r w i l d l i f e , f o r e s t r y , watershed p r o t e c t i o n and r e c r e a t i o n ; farming lands f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and communities; and many o t h e r s . Observing the r e l a t i o n s h i p s among these elements shows t h a t the i n t e r a c t i o n s may r e s u l t i n (1) s y n e r g i c e f f e c t s ( i . e . m u l t i p l e - u s e ) , (2) n e u t r a l i s m (e.g. a g r i c u l t u r e and a l p i n e r e c r e a t i o n ) , however they may compete f o r a l l o c a t i o n o f econ-omic r e s o u r c e s necessary to t h e i r development, and (3) com-p e t i t i o n when common re s o u r c e s (e.g. land base) i s i n shor t supply. The need f o r a systems viewpoint i s t h e r e f o r e j u s t i f i e d on the ground of the interdependency of the r e s o u r c e s , thus r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t m a n i p u l a t i o n of one component of the system w i l l l i k e l y a f f e c t o t h e r s . A systems a n a l y s t would then be i n t e r e s t e d i n drawing c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the whole system. T h i s would p r o v i d e answers i n how w e l l the system has suceeded i n improving i t s own performance. Undertaking a study a t t h i s l e v e l might be a p p e a l i n g . However, i t r e q u i r e s an i n v e s t i g a t i o n c l e a r l y beyond the scope of t h i s t h e s i s . The system as d e f i n e d i n t h i s study t h e r e f o r e c o n s t i t u t e s a sub-component of a more g e n e r a l land a l l o c a t i o n system. The problem s c r u t i n i z e d i s the impact of hydro-dams on f o r e s t r y . I assume f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s t h a t the need f o r 16 hydro-dams has been e s t a b l i s h e d on the b a s i s of a wider systematic decision-making p r o c e s s . Moreover, w h i l e r e c o g n i z i n g the e x i s t e n c e and v a l u e of o t h e r r e s o u r c e s , I am c o n s t r a i n e d to c o n f i n i n g my a n a l y s i s to f o r e s t r y . T h i s should however serve to i l l u s t r a t e t h a t s i m i l a r a n a l y s i s of other resource uses i n a wider framework might r e v e a l s i m i l a r b e n e f i t s . Moreover, the systems approach i s adopted to achieve the o b j e c t i v e of b u i l d i n g a model of timber supply and demand t o assess impacts i n terms of d i s r u p t i o n and r e d u c t i o n of timber supply. T h e r e f o r e , the other o b j e c t i v e s of the study, r e l a t e d t o f o r e s t land v a l u e and r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g , do not f o l l o w the systems vi e w p o i n t . Addressing o n l y a p o r t i o n of the l a n d a l l o c a t i o n system reduces the complexity o f the r e a l i t y . However, at t h i s f i n e r l e v e l of r e s o l u t i o n the approach cannot pretend to y i e l d e x p l a n a t o r y value beyond the l i m i t e d scope of the timber supply. Another l i m i t a t i o n of t h i s study i s r e l a t e d to the study area. The boundary of the Kootenay r e g i o n r e p r e s e n t s a geo-g r a p h i c and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e a l i t y . However, as the northern p a r t of the Columbia R i v e r drainage b a s i n i s not i n c l u d e d i n the r e g i o n , an important p a r t of the Mica Dam f l o o d i n g area i s ommitted from the a n a l y s i s . T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a f o r e s t land area of approximately 12,150 h e c t a r e s , or 10 percent of the p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t l a n d base of the Canoe Sustained Y i e l d u n i t l o c a t e d n o r t h of the study a r e a . 17 Furthermore, o n l y f i v e hydro-dams are examined f o r the f o l l o w i n g reasons: these f i v e dams are the most important of the r e g i o n , they serve f l o o d c o n t r o l and power g e n e r a t i o n purposes which b e n e f i t s accrue beyond the r e g i o n ' s boundary, and they encompass more than 9 0 percent of the r e g i o n ' s t o t a l r e s e r v o i r area. The concept o f i n t e g r a t e d resource management (IRM) i s an u n d e r l y i n g g u i d e l i n e throughout t h i s study. I t i s p e r c e i v e d as an on-going process of r e s o l u t i o n of c o n f l i c t s emerging from competing r e s o u r c e u s e r s . IRM operates as a c o n t r o l mechanism of the q u a l i t y of human a c t i o n s on the n a t u r a l environment. A c t i o n s are s t r a t e g i c or t a c t i c a l a c t i v i t i e s , and t h e i r q u a l i t y i s r e l a t e d t o a c a p a c i t y t o enhance s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g ( S a s s e v i l l e , 1979). Standards by which the performance of IRM i s measured are grouped i n t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s : b i o - p h y s i c a l , sociological:*, and economic. F i r e y (19 60) d e f i n e d the g e n e r a l c r i t e r i a i n c l u d e d i n these r e f e r e n c e p o i n t s as: - maintenance of economic p r o d u c t i v i t y , - improvement of s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g , congruous wi t h the referent..group system of a c t i v i t i e s , - pursuance of economic e f f i c i e n c y . I n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e management i s t h e r e f o r e d e f i n e d as an on-going process seeking optimum s o l u t i o n s df n a t u r a l resource a l l o c a t i o n and management, a c t i n g as a c o n t r o l system s e t by b i o - p h y s i c a l , s o c i o l o g i c a l , and economic c r i t e r i a . 18 / CHAPTER I OVERVIEW OF THE KOOTENAY REGION BIO-PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT PHYSIOGRAPHY The Kootenays are composed of four r e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s : the East Kootenays, the Central-Kootenays, s u b d i v i s i o n A and B of the Columbia-Shuswap d i s t r i c t , and the Kootenay Boundary. The r e g i o n encompasses approximately 75,000 square k i l o m e t e r s and i s bounded by the Provinc e o f A l b e r t a t o the e a s t , the U n i t e d S t a t e s t o the south, the Okanagan R i v e r b a s i n t o the west, and the Thompson R i v e r b a s i n and the Cariboo d i s t r i c t t o the n o r t h . G e o g r a p h i c a l l y , the Kootenay r e g i o n i s d e l i m i t e d by the Rocky Mountains and the Monashees, with three d i s t i n c t p h y s i o g r a p h i c r e g i o n s o r i e n t e d north-south. F i r s t the East Kootenays, l o c a t e d i n the Rocky Mountain Trench, l i m i t e d by the Rocky Mountains and the P u r c e l l Range. Second, the C e n t r a l Kootenays s i t u a t e d between the P u r c e l l s and the S e l k i r k 19 Range. T h i r d , the West Kootenays, l o c a t e d between the S e l k i r k s and the Monashee Range (see Map 3). A l l these p h y s i o g r a p h i c regions are c h a r a c t e r i z e d by steep v a l l e y w a l l s . V a l l e y s are narrow and support an import-ant r i v e r system, w i t h e x c e p t i o n t o a f l a t p o r t i o n o f the t r e n c h south of Golden. The three mountain ranges are 40 to 80 k i l o -meters wide, with summits r e a c h i n g 3,000 meters i n the northern p a r t o f the r e g i o n and approximately 2,500 meters at the U.S. border (Holland, 1964). G e n e r a l l y , the r e l i e f of the northern h a l f of the r e g i o n i s extremely rugged, "... the peaks are sharp and are separated by deeply i n c i s e d g l a c i a t e d v a l l e y s " (Holland, 1964, p. 80). In the southern p a r t , however, the topography i s comparatively subdued wi t h mountains p o s s e s s i n g a wider base and r e a c h i n g a lower e l e v a t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , one may observe t h a t the l a n d -scape becomes more rugged when moving from the south-west to the n o r t h - e a s t c o r n e r o f the r e g i o n . BIOGEOCLIMATIC ZONES Instead o f o u t l i n i n g the c l i m a t e s , s o i l s , landforms, and the l i v i n g organisms c h a r a c t e r i z i n g the Kootenays, one may i n t e g r a t e the b i o t i c and a b i o t i c f a c t o r s i n b i o g e o c l i m a t i c u n i t s i n order t o d e s c r i b e the b i o - p h y s i c a l environment ( K r a j i n a , 1969). B i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones are g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d i s t i n c t r e g i o n a l ecosystems encompassing "zonal or mesic v e g e t a t i o n and s o i l which are products o f the very m i c r o c l i m a t e i n which they occur" ( K r a j i n a , 1972. p. 6). 20 Map 2 shows the v a r i o u s b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zones of the Kootenay r e g i o n , named a f t e r the dominant t r e e s o f the c l i m a t i c climax p l a n t a s s o c i a t i o n s . The f o l l o w i n g d e s c r i p t i o n i s a b r i e f summary o f K r a j i n a (1969) and the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1980c). I n t e r i o r Western Hemlock Zone (or I n t e r i o r Western Cedar-Western Hemlock Zone) T h i s zone, a l s o known as the i n t e r i o r wet b e l t , l i e s below e l e v a t i o n 1550 meters and i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a c o n t i n e n t a l humid c l i m a t e . As a consequency of h i g h p r e c i p i t a t i o n (56 to 170 centimeters (cm.) a n n u a l l y ) , a heavy f o r e s t cover has developed, c o n s i t u t e d mainly by western hemlock (Tsuga h e t e r o -p h y l l a (Raf.) Sarg.), western red cedar (Thuja p l i c a t a Donn ex D. Don i n Lamb.), and, with a lower i n c i d e n c e , douglas f i r (Pseudotsuga • m e n z i e s i i var. g l a u c a Mirb. (Franco)) and engelmann spruce (P i c e a engelmannii P a r r y ex Engelm.). I n t e r i o r Douglas F i r Zone T h i s b i o g e o c l i m a t i c zone, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a c o n t i n e n t a l montane subhumid c l i m a t e , i s warmer and d r i e r than the p r e v i o u s one. F o r e s t s are h e a v i l y i n f l u e n c e d by f i r e s , r e s u l t i n g i n frequent occurences o f ponderosa pi n e (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) and lodgepole pine (P. c o n t o r t a Doug, ex Laud.) i n the southern p a r t o f the r e g i o n . The lowlands of the East Kootenays, l o c a t e d i n t h i s zone, o f f e r good p o t e n t i a l f o r a g r i c u l t u r e . Ponderosa Pine-Bunch Grass Zone T h i s i s the d r i e s t zone o f the p r o v i n c e (annual p r e c i p -i t a t i o n o f 13 t o 36 cm.), and the warmest i n the summer. I t i s 21 ' S o u r c e : B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a E c o l o g i c a l R e s e r v e C o m m i t t e e (1973) a savannah-like ecosystem with s p a r s e l y populated ponderosa pine a s s o c i a t e d w i t h sage brush (Artemissa t r i d e n t a t a ) and/or b i t t e r brush (Prushia t r i d e n t a t a ) . A g r i c u l t u r e on i r r i g a t e d s i t e s and g r a z i n g ranges f o r c a t t l e and w i l d l i f e seem to be the best s u i t a b l e use of the l a n d f o r an important p a r t of the zone. Engelmann Spruce Subalpine F i r Zone Th i s zone occupies most of the r e g i o n between e l e v a t i o n s 1350 and 2600 meters. I t i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a subalpine c o n t i n e n t a l c o l d humid c l i m a t e w i t h a s h o r t growing season (50 to 100 f r o s t f r e e days annually) and heavy s n o w f a l l s (175 t o 1016 cm./year). In h i g h e r e l e v a t i o n t r e e s grow i n s m a l l c o l o n i e s ("parklands"), whereas at lower e l e v a t i o n f o r e s t stands are more dense, dominated by engelmann spruce and subalpine f i r ( A b i e s ' l a s i o c a r p a (Hook.) N u t t . ) . B o r e a l White and Black Spruce Zone L i m i t e d t r e e growth occurs i n t h i s zone, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a b o r e a l c o n t i n e n t a l c o l d humid c l i m a t e ( " t a i g a " ) . The w i n t e r i s very severe and the ground i s f r o z e n most of the year (20 t o 150 f r o s t f r e e days). A l p i n e Toundra Zone The A l p i n e Toundra Zone, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a p s e u d o a r t i c c l i m a t e , i s s i t u a t e d above the e l e v a t i o n 2,250 meters. Having l e s s than 25 f r o s t f r e e days a year, no t r e e s or other l i f e form may t h r i v e w e l l . 23 As a r e s u l t o f the p h y s i o g r a p h i c c o n d i t i o n s and the s e v e r i t y of the c l i m a t e , o n l y 55 percent o f Kootenay r e g i o n ' s Crown land under the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s i s c l a s s i f i e d as p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t (3,055,966 h e c t a r e s o f a t o t a l o f 6,819,673 ha.) ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980). Moreover, the r e l a t i v e low p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the s o i l s combined wi t h the small f r a c t i o n o f l a n d l o c a t e d i n v a l l e y bottoms l i m i t s the occurence of good f o r e s t s i t e s t o onl y 11 percent o f : t h e p r o d u c t i v e area, or 6 per c e n t o f the t o t a l r e g i o n area. Furthermore, o n l y the f i r s t two zones, l o c a t e d i n the v a l l e y bottoms of the Columbia, Kootenay, and Lardeau r i v e r s , o f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t p o t e n t i a l f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t r y , a g r i c u l t u r e , w i l d l i f e management, and r e c r e a t i o n . HYDROGRAPHY Two important r i v e r systems l i e i n the Kootenays, r e s u l t i n g from the p a r t i c u l a r p h y s i o g r a p h i c f e a t u r e s o f the r e g i o n and the s i g n i f i c a n t annual p r e c i p i t a t i o n (the n o r t h e r n P u r c e l l s and S e l k i r k s r e c e i v e 150 t o 200 cm o f p r e c i p i t a t i o n , some i n excess o f 250 cm). F i r s t , the Columbia R i v e r i s the f o u r t h i n s i z e i n North America,, and has a mean di s c h a r g e o f 2,800 c u b i c meters/second at the U.S. border ( F a r l e y , 1979). The r i v e r has i t s source at Columbia Lake near Canal F l a t s , 812 meters above sea l e v e l , then f o l l o w s a no r t h e r n course, l e a v i n g the Rocky Mountain Trench at the B i g Bend t o flow south between the Monashees and 24 the S e l k i r k s (see Map 3). The Columbia c r o s s e s the U.S. border at an e l e v a t i o n o f 391 meters, a f t e r f l o w i n g through C a s t l e g a r and T r a i l . At the border, the Columbia has t r a v e l l e d 735 k i l o m e t e r s with a drainage area o f 88,060 square k i l o m e t e r s . The d i s c h a r g e a t the border c o n s t i t u t e s approximately 4 0 percent of the t o t a l d i s c harge of the Columbia R i v e r ( K r u t i l l a , 1967). Second, the Kootenay R i v e r i s a l s o o f importance. The r i v e r has i t s source near Banff, A l b e r t a , f o l l o w s a southern course, p a s s i n g 2 k i l o m e t e r s from Canal F l a t s , c r o s s e s the U.S. border, changes i t s course and r e - e n t e r s B.C. at Creston t o become the Kootenay Lake, surrounded by the P u r c e l l s and the S e l k i r k s . Then, f l o w i n g by Nelson at a mean dis c h a r g e of 800 c u b i c meters/second ( F a r l e y , 1979), i t f i n a l l y meets the Columbia a t C a s t l e g a r . The c u r i o u s p a t t e r n of flow of the Kootenay R i v e r , as w e l l as the Columbia, i s b e l i e v e d to be the r e s u l t o f "... p o s t - g l a c i a l d i v e r s i o n and major stream p i r a c y " (Holland, 1964. p. 112). The Kootenay and the Columbia r i v e r s , b e s i d e s t h e i r import-ant d i s c h a r g e , a l s o experience major stream flow f l u c t u a t i o n s . The combination of f a c t o r s such as important s n o w f a l l s , r a p i d snowmelt, steep v a l l e y s i d e s , and s h o r t t r i b u t a r i e s has r e s u l t e d i n a 30-35 f o l d v a r i a b i l i t y i n the flow between w i n t e r and s p r i n g r u n - o f f p e r i o d s ( K r u t i l l a , 1967). As a r e s u l t , f l o o d i n g i n the Creston and T r a i l areas were frequent before f l o o d c o n t r o l was implemented. MAP 3. PHYSIOGRAPHY OF THE KOOTENAY REGION 26 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT NATURAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT Regional growth i n the Kootenays was i n i t i a t e d by the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the Canadian P a c i f i c Railway and the g o l d rush of the 1880's. As a r e s u l t , f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y emerged i n the Golden-Revelstoke area t o p r o v i d e lumber f o r the r a i l w a y , to the young mining i n d u s t r y , and f o r export t o the settlement demands o f the P r a i r i e s . In the 1890's, mining, l o c a t e d i n T r a i l and Kimberley, was the major i n d u s t r i a l development and was a s t r o n g s t i m u l u s f o r sett l e m e n t . With the expansion o f the r a i l w a y , the d i s c o v e r y o f a d d i t i o n a l m i n e r a l d e p o s i t s combined with government i n c e n t i v e s caused the mining i n d u s t r y t o expand f u r t h e r i t s r o l e i n the growth of the r e g i o n . T h i s r a p i d growth was c e r t a i n l y the d i r e c t r e s u l t o f r a i l w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n . Indeed, "... the Canadian P a c i f i c Railway was b u i l t t o open up new re s o u r c e s areas, immigrants would come to those areas t o develop the resource and the t a r i f f would p r o t e c t i n d u s t r i e s which would process the e x t r a c t e d resource p r o d u c t s . " (Brown, 1969. p. 47) The l o c a t i o n of ••:smelting, and : r e f i n i n g , f a c i l i t i e s i n the p r o x i m i t y of mines was determined by high p r i c e s f o r mi n e r a l s which encouraged investment, and the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a low-co s t source o f energy. The development o f hydro-power was d e f i n i t e l y a major f a c t o r i n i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n (Schramm, 1969). The a s s o c i a t i o n o f h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y and mining developments generated a mutual reinforcement o f these two a c t i v i t i e s i n 27 the r e g i o n . For i n s t a n c e , towns of the Kootenays were the f i r s t i n B.C. t o develop e l e c t r i c i t y from water power. "... the f i r s t o f these e l e c t r i c p l a n t s was b u i l t at Nelson i n 1896 by the Nelson E l e c t r i c L i g h t Company. T h i s company, i n the hope o f l u r i n g the newly e s t a b l i s h e d smelter from T r a i l Creek Landing, b u i l t a f o u r - f o o t waterwheel on Cottonwood Creek and harnassed i t t o a generator d e v e l o p i n g 5.5 k i l w a t t s . Although Nelson d i d not succeed i n becoming the c e n t r e f o r the smelter, the e l e c t r i c system proved t o be so p o p u l a r t h a t the p l a n t had to be e n l a r g e d t o 110 k i l o w a t t s the f o l l o w i n g year.... I t was i n the Kootenay D i s t r i c t a l s o , t h a t there came the f i r s t a p p l i c a t i o n . o f e l e c t r i c power to i n d u s t r y . The f i r s t major a p p l i c a t i o n o f the West Kootenay Power and L i g h t Company was developed t o p r o v i d e power f o r the copper smelter at T r a i l . In 1902, the f i r s t r e f i n e d l e a d was produced i n T r a i l , the f i r s t a p p l i -c a t i o n i n the world of an e l e c t r o l y t i c method of r e f i n i n g l e a d . " ( T a y l o r , 1965, p. 16) A g r i c u l t u r e was minimal i n the e a r l y 1900's, but l o c a l l y important. P r o d u c t i o n was i n c r e a s e d with.the coming of the i n d u s t r i o u s Doukhobours and E n g l i s h farmers. F o r e s t r y , however, d e c l i n e d as a consequency of the completion of the r a i l w a y , the d e p l e t i o n of a c c e s s i b l e t r e e stands and a weakening e x t e r n a l demand. In the 19 30's, a g r i c u l t u r e a l s o d e c l i n e d mostly because of e x t r a - r e g i o n a l c o m p e t i t i o n (e.g. the Okanagan V a l l e y ) . A f t e r World War I I , the U.S. demand f o r housing, a l a r g e investment o f c a p i t a l (as i n the p u l p m i l l at C a s t l e g a r ) , and the i n t e g r a t i o n of p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s caused the expansion of the f o r e s t r y s e c t o r . Over the 1950-1970 p e r i o d , the export of f o r e s t products i n c r e a s e d at an annual r a t e of 7 p e r c e n t , 28 and the volume o f timber h a r v e s t e d has t r i p l e d . In the same p e r i o d , t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n i n the mining i n d u s t r y l e d t o i n c r e a s e d labour p r o d u c t i v i t y , and, a s s o c i a t e d with a f l u c -t u a t i n g world demand, r e s u l t e d i n problems of c h r o n i c unemploy-ment. T h i s tendency has p e r s i s t e d over the years and j u s t i f i e d , i n p a r t , a government a s s i s t a n c e p r o j e c t to remedy the s i t u -a t i o n (Edwards 1976 , Kootenay. Report 1976 ') . The 1960's were the scene of major hydro-dam development i n the Kootenays. The r a t i f i c a t i o n o f the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y i n 1964, r e s u l t e d i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of three dams p r o v i d i n g 15,500,000 a c r e - f e e t of storage usable f o r improving the flow o f the Columbia i n terms o f f l o o d c o n t r o l and hydro-e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n f o r the U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canada (Canada, 1964). F u r t h e r , three other major dams were b u i l t t o supply e l e c t r i c i t y t o markets o u t s i d e the r e g i o n ( i . e . Kootenay Canal, Seven M i l e and Revelstoke dams). In the l a s t few y e a r s , t o u r i s m has emerged as an important i n d u s t r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the E a s t Kootenays. Tourism, however, seems to the o n l y major export i n d u s t r y i n the s e r v i c e s e c t o r . In f a c t , i n the Kootenays, trade and s e r v i c e s are i n l a r g e p a r t imported. Wholesale and r e t a i l t r a de i s mostly p r o v i d e d by A l b e r t a ( p a r t l y because of the absence o f a p r o v i n c i a l , s a l e s t a x ) , and business and f i n a n c i a l s e r v i c e s are s u p p l i e d by Vancouver and Calgary. 29 RESOURCE BASE I n t h i s s e c t i o n , t h e p r e s e n t s t a t u s and t h e o u t l o o k o f the p r i n c i p a l c o n s t i t u e n t s o f t h e Kootenays' s o c i o - e c o n o m i c development are b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d . The p r i m a r y ' s o u r c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n i s p r o v i d e d by a s t u d y o f t h e s o c i a l and economic development o f t h e r e g i o n (Kootenay R e p o r t , 1976). P e o p l e A c c o r d i n g t o census d a t a , t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e Kootenays was a p p r o x i m a t e l y 144,000 i n 1976, or.6 p e r c e n t o f t h e " p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n . The T r a i l - C a s t l e g a r - N e l s o n a g g l o m e r a t i o n i s t h e l a r g e s t c e n t r e , w i t h 25 p e r c e n t o f t h e r e g i o n ' s p o p u l a t i o n , f o l l o w e d by t h e C r a n b r o o k - K i m b e r l e y - F e r n i e a r e a (18%) and t h e R e v e l s t o k e - G o l d e n a r e a (8%) (Kootenay R e p o r t , 1976. pp..31-66). D u r i n g t h e 1966-1976 p e r i o d , t h e r e g i o n has grown a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y h a l f o f t h e a n n u a l p r o v i n c i a l r a t e (1.4 p e r c e n t , compared t o 2.8 p e r c e n t ) . However, an i m p o r t a n t p a t t e r n o f m i g r a t i o n o c c u r s w i t h i n t h e r e g i o n . I n t h e 1966-1971 p e r i o d , p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e E a s t Kootenays has i n c r e a s e d by 26.8 p e r c e n t , whereas th e West Kootenays has e x p e r i e n c e d a d e c l i n e o f 0.3 p e r c e n t . T h i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o one o f t h e h i g h e s t growth r a t e s and one o f t h e l o w e s t o f t h e p r o v i n c e . The d i f f e r -ences i n p o p u l a t i o n growth may be e x p l a i n e d by "... s h i f t s i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e r e g i o n . . . " (Kootenay R e p o r t , 1976. p. 32). Moreover, t h i s tendency may p e r s i s t w i t h t h e development o f c o a l f i e l d s and t h e r i s i n g i m p o r t a n c e o f t o u r i s m i n t h e E a s t Kootenays. 30 Mining "The minerals s e c t o r has h i s t o r i c a l l y been a major f a c t o r i n the i n d u s t r i a l develop-ment o f the Kootenay Region. As measured by employment (7,185 people i n 1971), income, and value of output, mining takes a l a r g e economic c o n t r i b u t i o n and w i l l continue to do s o . i n the f u t u r e . The Region w i l l e xperience s h i f t s both i n the type of min-e r a l s e x t r a c t e d and i n the l o c a t i o n s of major mining a c t i v i t i e s , w i t h c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i n the E a s t Kootenays (Crownnest Pass area) expected t o r i s e t o prominence over m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l s p r o d u c t i o n i n the Region. ... There i s the p r o s s i b i l i t y of some expansion of the m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l s s e c t o r i n the r e g i o n , with s e v e r a l p r o s p e c t s having p o t e n t i a l f o r development. However, as a . r e s u l t of s m a l l mines c l o s i n g , there may be s h i f t s i n the l o c a t i o n o f s m a l l mine output and employment, but l i t t l e change i n the aggregate employment." (Kootenay Report, 1976. p. 112) F o r e s t r y "The f o r e s t r y s e c t o r of the Kootenay Region has p l a y e d an important p a r t o f the Region's pas t economic development, but i t s r o l e may d e c l i n e i n a r e l a t i v e or perhaps absolute sense i n the f u t u r e . T h i s changed t r e n d c o u l d become e v i d e n t i f s t r o n g e r i n c e n t i v e s are not taken to encourage b e t t e r u t i l i z a t i o n o f the Region's f o r e s t r y resource base and t o remove the c o n s t r a i n t s of f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g of f o r e s t products from Canadian and world markets." (Kootenay Report, 1976. p. 81) Employment i n the f o r e s t r y i n d u s t r y grew through the 1951-1971 p e r i o d (4.3 percent a n n u a l l y ) , with 7,700 people employed i n 1971, a c c o u n t i n g f o r 14.5 percent of the r e g i o n a l employment. However, f o r e s t r y has faced a d e c l i n e i n the r e c e n t years as a r e s u l t of the i n t e g r a t i o n of the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y i n t o l a r g e r o p e r a t i o n s , l i t t l e output of f u r t h e r processed 31 f o r e s t , p r o d u c t s , h i g h t r a n s f e r c o s t s (e.g. t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s ) , t a r i f f s s t r u c t u r e , and the d i m i n i s h i n g q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y of a v a i l a b l e timber. P r o j e c t i o n s f o r the i n d u s t r y i n d i c a t e t h a t the i n d u s t r i a l growth tre n d s o f 2 percent per year may not be s u s t a i n a b l e . Moreover, the northern and e a s t e r n areas of the r e g i o n are f a c i n g timber shortage w i t h i n the next 10 t o 20 y e a r s , even i f the p r o d u c t i o n i s maintained a t the p r e s e n t l e v e l . A g r i c u l t u r e Over the 1961-1971 p e r i o d , the primary a g r i c u l t u r e s e c t o r has i n c r e a s e d i t s share of r e g i o n a l employment from 2.5 t o 3.1 p e r c e n t , when a d e c l i n e was f a c i n g the r e s t o f the p r o v i n c e . Reasons s t a t e d f o r the r e v i v a l of t h i s l o c a l l y important s e c t o r are: government a s s i s t a n c e programs ( i . e . Regional Development  I n c e n t i v e s Act and Farm Products Improvements A c t ) ; " i n c r e a s e d improved acreage devoted t o c r o p s ; i n c r e a s e d t o t a l acreages f o r farms (some 40,000 h e c t a r e s , or 35 p e r c e n t ) ; l a r g e i n c r e a s e s i n beef c a t t l e s t o c k s ; and recovery of 1950 l e v e l s of p o t a t o e s , t r e e f r u i t and vegetable p r o d u c t i o n " (Kootenay Report, 1976. p. 78). The a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t y i s c o n c e n t r a t e d i n three areas: f i r s t , the Creston V a l l e y (19,000 ha.) with g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n on the best s i t e s and d a i r y i n d u s t r y on land l e s s s u i t e d f o r c u l t i v a t i o n ; second, the E a s t Kootenays with important range lands (over 25,000 head of c a t t l e ) ; t h i r d , the Grand Forks area, with forage crops and beef p r o d u c t i o n . The r e g i o n ' s comparative 32 advantage has p r o b a b l y been e x p l o i t e d , and few new developments I are f o r e s e e n (Kootenay R e p o r t , 1976). H y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y I n t h e p a s t 2 0 y e a r s , hydro-dam development has t a k e n a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e p a r t o f a l l i n v e s t m e n t i n the Kootenays. The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f Duncan, Hugh K e e n l e y s i d e , and M i c a dams a t t r a c t e d an. i m p o r t a n t l a b o u r f o r c e t o t h e r e g i o n (see F i g u r e 1). F o l l o w i n g t h e s e t h r e e dams, was t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f Kootenay C a n a l , Seven M i l e Dam (work f o r c e peak o f 947 i n 1978), and R e v e l s t o k e Dam ( p r o j e c t e d work f o r c e peak o f 3,500). However, most o f t h e p o s i t i v e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c impact o c c u r s i n the s h o r t term, 1 s i n c e o n l y a few o p e r a t o r s a r e needed t o run the dam, and the energy produced i s p r i m a r i l y s u p p l i e d t o e x t e r n a l m a r k e t s . Moreover, th e c u r r e n t h i r i n g p o l i c y o f B.C. Hydro and t h e l a r g e w o r k f o r c e r e q u i r e d f o r the p r o j e c t r e s u l t s i n a s i g n i f i c a n t e x t e r n a l l a b o u r f o r c e . P l a n n e d p r o j e c t s i n c l u d e the d i v e r s i o n o f the Kootenay R i v e r a t C a n a l F l a t s and a h y d r o - e l e c t r i c dam a t Murphy Creek near T r a i l . T o u r i s m and R e c r e a t i o n "The Kootenays w i l l most l i k e l y c o n t i n u e t o e x p e r i e n c e growth i n the t o u r i s m - r e c r e a t i o n s e c t o r i n t o the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . T h i s growth w i l l be based l a r g e l y on t h e abundant n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s o f the R e g i o n , p o p u l a t i o n and income growth i n A l b e r t a (a major so u r c e o f v i s i t o r s ) and p o p u l a t i o n growth w i t h i n t h e r e g i o n i t s e l f . The economic impact o f t h e growth a n t i c i p a t e d f o r t h i s s e c t o r w i l l l i k e l y be modest i n terms o f employment and r evenues." (Kootenay R e p o r t , 1976. p. 180) I t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o draw the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the Kootenay r e g i o n i s a p p r o p r i a t e l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d as a " r e s o u r c e r e g i o n . " Figure 1. Distributions of Employment at Major Hydroelectric Projects in the Kootenay Region, 1964-1975 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Duncan 1964-1967 — — M i c a 1964-1973 Source: Kootenay R e p o r t , 1976, p. 206. Keenleys ide 1973 1965-1969 1974 1975 — Kootenay Canal 1971-1975 (completed Oct. 1975) 34 The b i o - p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , socio-economic and p o l i c y determinant f a c t o r s of the r e g i o n ' s growth are the main elements e x p l a i n i n g t h i s s t a t e . F o r e s t r y and mining are the major i n d u s t r i e s of the r e g i o n , a ccounting f o r approximately 25 percent of the labour f o r c e . T h e i r r e l a t i v e importance may f l u c t u a t e i n the f u t u r e as a f u n c t i o n o f resource d e p l e t i o n , p o l i c i e s adopted at p r o v i n c i a l and f e d e r a l l e v e l governments, and other s o c i o -economic f a c t o r s . F i n a l l y , i n the context o f t h i s study, i t appears important t o note t h a t a l l the p r i n c i p a l a c t i v i t i e s o f the r e g i o n are land consuming. The expansion of the resource i n d u s t r i e s w i l l l i k e l y generate c o n f l i c t s among use r s , and, as a r e s u l t , important d e c i s i o n s w i l l have to be made to a l l o c a t e the land i n the most d e s i r a b l e manner f o r the b e n e f i t of the people of the r e g i o n . CHAPTER II THE REDUCTION OF TIMBER SUPPLY METHODOLOGY ECOLOGICAL BASIS OF FOREST MANAGEMENT  E c o l o g i c a l p rocesses Since the end of the l a s t g l a c i a t i o n p e r i o d , some 10,000 years ago, f o r e s t ecosystems have gone through many changes. One may p i c t u r e t h i s e v o l u t i o n by o b s e r v i n g a mountain s i d e , from the i c e d summit t o the h e a v i l y f o r e s t e d v a l l e y bottom. T y p i c a l l y , i n the Kootenay r e g i o n , the A l p i n e Tundra, above 2,500 meters, i s an area e x c l u d i n g t r e e growth. Then, i n the range of 1,500 t o 2,500 meters, f o l l o w s a s p a r s e l y populated c o n i f e r o u s f o r e s t made up by engelman spruce (along with white spruce ( P i c a glauca (Moench) Voss.) and b l a c k spruce (P. mariana ( M i l l ) . , P r e l . ) i n the n o r t h e a s t e r n p a r t o f the region) and s u b a l p i n e f i r . And f i n a l l y , the v a l l e y bottom and the f o o t h i l l s are covered with an old-growth densely 36 populated f o r e s t . In the v a l l e y bottom the f o r e s t f l o o r i s covered w i t h an impressive v a r i e t y , of f e r n s , mosses, and other p l a n t s . Western hemlock, western red cedar and douglas f i r are the dominant t r e e s p e c i e s , a l o n g w i t h engelmann spruce on the v a l l e y s i d e s . The t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s o c c u r r i n g i n the f o r e s t ecosystem are the r e s u l t of the i n t e r a c t i o n s of f i v e s e t s of v a r i a b l e s : c l i m a t e , s o i l , parent m a t e r i a l , r e l i e f , organisms and time (Major, 1951). A g i v e n combination of these elements may be expressed i n a p a r t i c u l a r p l a n t a s s o c i a t i o n . T h i s concept i s the b a s i s of the b i o g e o c l i m a t i c p l a n t community c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f B.C. ( K r a j i n a , 1969), d i s c u s s e d i n the p r e v i o u s chapter. In a given area, the f a s t e s t changing v a r i a b l e i s the s p e c i e s composition. Parent m a t e r i a l , r e l i e f , and c l i m a t e may be h e l d constant i f the d u r a t i o n °f t n e o b s e r v a t i o n i s a few decades. Thus, i n a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t p e r i o d of time the b i o t i c f a c t o r s have a determinant r o l e i n the s t r u c t u r e of the eco-system. The v a r i a t i o n of s p e c i e s - c o m p o s i t i o n of the f o r e s t seems t o developthrough s u c c e s s i v e stages, or s e r e s , toward a c l i m a t i c climax•community i f n o t ^ d i s t u r b e d by insect i n f e s t a t i o n s , d i s e a s e , f i r e , f l o o d , or other n a t u r a l occurence. The process o f f o r e s t s u c c e s s i o n has taken p l a c e s i n c e the end of the l a s t g l a c i a t i o n . Favourable c o n d i t i o n s f o r the development of a mature f o r e s t ecosystem (such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y of n u t r i e n t s and a c l i m a t e p r o v i d i n g 37 f o r a good growing season along w i t h a s u f f i c i e n t r a i n f a l l ) , and a r e l a t i v e l y low i n c i d e n c e of environmental p e r t u r b a t i o n s have l e a d t o the development of a s o - c a l l e d climax community. T h i s f i n a l s e r i a l stage i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the presence of a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of nature and over-mature western hemlock and western red cedar (shade t o l e r a n t t r e e s l e a d i n g t o a c l i m a t i c climax)', and douglas f i r t r e e s p e c i e s (edaphic climax) . The replacement of t r e e s i s done on a one-to-one b a s i s and g e n e r a l l y by a specimen of the same s p e c i e s . T h i s f o r e s t has a hi g h s t a n d i n g biomass, and the growth r a t e of the f o r e s t i s n e g l i g i b l e due to a r a t e of m o r t a l i t y e q u i v a l e n t t o the r a t e of growth of the mature t r e e s and the o f f s p r i n g . P r o d u c t i v i t y The net primary p r o d u c t i v i t y o f a f o r e s t ecosystem i s the r a t e of p r o d u c t i o n o f t r e e biomass r e s u l t i n g from an i n p u t of energy. The r o l e o f the p l a n t s i s fundamental, because photo-s y n t h e s i s i s the o n l y process a l l o w i n g f o r the t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of energy from s o l a r r a d i a t i o n i n t o the p r o d u c t i o n o f biomass. Of t h i s primary p r o d u c t i o n some i s used i n p l a n t r e s p i r a t i o n , a p a r t i s s t o r e d i n woody t i s s u e s , and a p a r t goes t o f u r t h e r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s i n the t r o p h i c web (microorganisms, h e r b i v o r e s , c a r n i v o r e s , e x p o r t ) . In an e m p i r i c a l study o f the flow o f energy i n a f o r e s t ecosystem (deciduous f o r e s t i n n o r t h e a s t e r n U.S.A.) the f o l l o w i n g r e s u l t s were obtained from the year observed (see F i g u r e 2). 38 in p u t SOLAR RADIATION REFLECTED LIGHT HEAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION 1 3--L -6 NET PRIMARY PLANT PRODUCTION 0.2% ABOVE GROUND STORAGE PLANT PRODUCTION (Gross primary production) 1.2% PLANT RESPIRATION 0.8% ROOT STORAGE DETRITUS FOOD WEB GRAZING FOOD WEB EXPORT Fi g u r e 2. The flow o f energy i n a f o r e s t ecosystem. (Gosz e t a l , 1978) Two e c o l o g i c a l p r i n c i p l e s should be s t a t e d : (1) biogeochemical c y c l e s r e s u l t i n p a r t from p l a n t p r o d u c t i o n , and the input of energy i s constant -(i.e.-:. s o l a r f l u x ) . Two important n o t i o n s can be drawn from these c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . F i r s t , the n u t r i e n t c a p i t a l i s maintained by p l a n t p r o d u c t i o n and the e x t r a c t i o n o f the timber resource ought t o be done a t a r a t e t h a t w i l l , not be h i g h e r than the n u t r i e n t , replacement. T h i s concept has been o u t l i n e d by Kimmins (1974) and r e f e r s t o the " e c o l o g i c a l r o t a t i o n " o f timber h a r v e s t i n g . Second, what i s c a l l e d p r o d u c t i v i t y by f o r e s t , managers i s onl y a smal l percentage o f the net primary p r o d u c t i o n , perhaps 5 0% of the above ground storage. T h e r e f o r e , the f o r e s t ecosystem has othe r important f u n c t i o n s than the p r o d u c t i o n o f wood f o r 39 h a r v e s t i n g , i n terms of c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y f o r a m u l t i t u d e of organisms, s o i l s support, and i t s fundamental r o l e i n the h y d r o l o g i c c y c l e . F o r e s t Management Concepts The p r o d u c t i v i t y of f o r e s t lands f o r timber e x t r a c t i o n purposes i s a socio-economic value t h a t does not capture the f u l l value of the t o t a l primary p r o d u c t i o n (Havel, 1980). The volume c a l c u l a t e d i n a f o r e s t stand i s dependent upon standards of u t i l i z a t i o n , i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o technology l e v e l , a v a i l a b i l i t y of timber r e s o u r c e s , and market demand at a given time. P r i o r t o the mid-1960's " i n t e r m e d i a t e u t i l i z a t i o n " standards were i n p r a c t i c e r e s u l t i n g i n a g r e a t amount of wood not recovered by h a r v e s t i n g (stumps and t r e e tops) and by p r o c e s s i n g l o s s e s such as sawmill r e s i d u e s . In 1966 a " c l o s e u t i l i z a t i o n " standard was implemented, a c h i e v i n g a b e t t e r recovery of timber and u s i n g sawmill r e s i d u e to generate wood chi p s f o r the pulp m i l l s . The f o r e s t companies which demon-s t r a t e d t h a t they c o u l d adapt t o the new system were a l l o c a t e d a d d i t i o n a l c u t t i n g p e r m i t s , known as the " t h i r d - b a n d Timber Sale L i c e n c e . " In 1974, these l i c e n c e s accounted f o r about 33% of the t o t a l volume h a r v e s t e d i n the Kootenay r e g i o n (Pearse, 1976, p. 74) . i In the f u t u r e , the p r o p o r t i o n of h a r v e s t a b l e timber t o the t o t a l t r e e volume w i l l l i k e l y i n c r e a s e . The l a t e s t i n v e n -t o r y data (BCFS, 19 80) are c a l c u l a t e d on the b a s i s of v a r i o u s 40 standards of u t i l i z a t i o n , ( t r e e s c o n s i d e r e d t o have a diameter of 2 7.5 cm and more, 17.5 cm+, and. 12.5 cm+). The c u r r e n t i n v e n t o r y takes i n t o account t r e e s o f 17.5 cm + i n d i a m e t e r w However, s m a l l e r t r e e s (from 12.5 cm i n diameter) w i l l l i k e l y be u t i l i z e d as the timber resource d i m i n i s h e s . The c u r r e n t f o r e s t management p r a c t i c e i s f o l l o w i n g e s t a b l i s h e d p r i n c i p l e s , d e f i n e d as f o l l o w s : 1. S u s t a i n e d Y i e l d . In B.C., the p r i n c i p l e of Sustained Y i e l d f o r e s t management was adopted i n 1945 as the major recom-mendation of the Sloan Commission on f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s . I t was d e f i n e d as: "... a p e r p e t u a l y i e l d o f wood o f commercially usable q u a l i t y from r e g i o n a l areas i n y e a r l y or p e r i o d i c q u a n t i t i e s of equal or i n c r e a s i n g v o l -ume ..." And the concept of Maximum Sus t a i n e d Y i e l d was s t r o n g l y endorsed. "That, then must be our o b j e c t i v e : To so manage our f o r e s t s t h a t a l l of our f o r e s t l a n d i s s u s t a i n i n g a p e r p e t u a l y i e l d o f timber t o the f u l l e s t e xtent o f i t s p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y . " (Sloan, cited i n Pearse, 1976, App. D, p. 3) 2. Annual A l l o w a b l e Cut. The t r a n s l a t i o n o f the S u s t a i n e d Y i e l d concept i n t o i t s o p e r a t i o n a l form i s achieved by the c a l -c u l a t i o n of the annual a l l o w a b l e cut (AAC). The formula t h a t was adopted f o r t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n (1), c a l l e d the H a n z l i k e q u a t i o n , has the main purpose o f l i q u i d a t i n g the volume of old-growth timber (Vm) over the h a r v e s t i n g p e r i o d , or r o t a t i o n (r) , t o repl-ace i t by a f a s t e r growing second-growth f o r e s t (where I = mean annual increment of immature t i m b e r ) . " i " i s d e f i n e d as the volume of timber i n a f o r e s t stand d i v i d e d by i t s age. 41 AAC = Vm/R + I (1) I t i s assumed t h a t the average growth r a t e o f over-mature timber i s zero. Then t o achieve the maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d , the r o t a t i o n (R) i s determined as being the age of the t r e e s where the mean annual increment (!) i s maximum, as shown i n Fi g u r e ,3. Determination o f the r o t a t i o n age from volume t o age r e l a t i o n s h i p . The r o t a t i o n age (R) i s found where Volume/Age i s maximum. With the i n c r e a s i n g use o f the computer, l i n e a r programming becomes more a t t r a c t i v e than the g r a p h i c a l approach. However, the g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e s are s i m i l a r t o the Han z l i k approach. 3. Timber Supply Areas (TSA) f o l l o w i n g the recommen-da t i o n s o f the l a s t Royal Commission on F o r e s t Resources, the P u b l i c S u s t a i n e d Y i e l d U n i t s are i n the process o f being changed i n t o Timber Supply Areas t h a t are t o take i n t o account: F i g u r e 3. Volume R Age II ... l o g supply p a t t e r n s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s now and f o r the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e , grouping t o g e t h e r e x i s t i n g u n i t s t o c i r c u m s c r i b e 42 reg i o n s t h a t support i d e n t i f i a b l e communities and i n d u s t r i a l c e n t r e s . These regions should i n c l u d e a l l lands from which timber i s expected t o be ha r v e s t e d ..." (Pearse, 1976, p. 238) The Timber Supply Areas t h e r e f o r e c o n s t i t u t e the manage-ment u n i t s t h a t should be c o n s i d e r e d when a s s e s s i n g the r e l a t i v e impact of hydro-dams upon the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y . ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK The assessment of the r e d u c t i o n of the timber supply r e s u l t i n g from hydro-dams i s performed " a f t e r the f a c t , " thereby a l l o w i n g f o r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f the impacts w i t h a b e t t e r l e v e l o f c e r t a i n t y than p r o s p e c t i v e s t u d i e s . However, an important source of data was " f l o o d e d " with the lan d i n the case o f e a r l y hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . P r i o r t o 1973, e n v i r o n -mental impact assessments were not common, consequently some data which appear t o be of importance today were not recorded. Moreover, the .'.in format i o n was presented i n v a r i o u s forms. Hence, b e s i d e s f i l l i n g i n the data gap, a s y n t h e s i s i s attempted which enables one t o d e a l w i t h a uniform data base. F i n a l l y , the a n a l y s i s p l a c e s the e m p i r i c a l measurement i n a s i m p l i f i e d p e r s p e c t i v e t o reduce the complexity of the r e a l i t y and t o allow understanding of the r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t i n g between the supply and the demand of timber. DATA COLLECTION Adequate i n f o r m a t i o n i s c e n t r a l to the e v a l u a t i o n of the •JEeduction of timber supply.. Concerned 43 f o r e s t r y groups are unanimous i n . s a y i n g t h a t the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i n p e r c e i v i n g the extent o f the impact i s a poor data base. In order t o b r i d g e t h i s gap, i n t e r v i e w s were h e l d with r e p r e -s e n t a t i v e s o f the* B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e , the a f f e c t e d f o r e s t companies, B.C. Hydro and oth e r i n t e r e s t groups. A l s o , r e p o r t s , environmental impact assessments ( f o r Seven M i l e and Revelstoke dams), along with l e t t e r s exchanged among B.C. Hydro, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the f o r e s t companies were c o n s u l t e d . And f i n a l l y , primary sources o f data such as f o r e s t cover maps and inve n -t o r y data were sought. The data p e r t a i n i n g t o Revelstoke, Mica, Seven M i l e , and Hugh Keenleyside dams were a c q u i r e d . However, Revelstoke and Mica dams were more e x t e n s i v e l y s c r u t i n i z e d f o r two reasons: f i r s t , they have a higher- degree o f f o r e s t r y impact than the other dams. Second, b e t t e r , data were assembled f o r these two p r o j e c t s . The minor problems r e s u l t i n g from s c a t t e r e d data (among v a r i o u s p r i v a t e and p u b l i c ownerships, and on the l o c a l , r e g i o n a l , and p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l ) and t h e i r appearance under d i f f e r e n t formats (e.g. v a r i o u s u n i t s o f measurement, and d i v e r s e l e v e l s o f timber u t i l i z a t i o n i n f o r e s t i n v e n t o r i e s ) were overcome. However, much i n f o r m a t i o n was permanently l o s t w i t h the land f l o o d i n g , and r e p r e s e n t s an i s s u e t h a t m e r i t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n . A reason f o r the l o s s o f data may be a l a c k o f concern from the p u b l i c and i n t e r e s t groups f o r a given type o f i n f o r m a t i o n at the time o f the p r o j e c t p r o p o s a l . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i t c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d 44 as being of concern t o c e r t a i n groups, but i n f o r m a t i o n was not generated because of time l i m i t c o n s t r a i n t s or r e s t r i c t i o n s i n f i n a n c i a l and/or t e c h n i c a l resources t o perform the approp-r i a t e s t u d i e s . Moreover, the terms o f r e f e r e n c e of the pub-l i c h e arings c o u l d have been d e f i n e d too narrowly. There i s evidence to suggest t h a t the second case may be more than s p e c u l a t i v e . For example, a b r i e f on the f o r e s t r y impact of the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y (Mica, Hugh Keenleyside and Duncan dams) was prepared by the Chamber of Commerce of Nakusp, but was never submitted, the reasons s t a t e d being a l a c k of r i g -our and because i t was not d e a l i n g with s p e c i f i c i s s u e s addressed at the p u b l i c h e a r i n g s : "... s i n c e i t (the f o r e s t r y b r i e f ) con-cerned the Columbia T r e a t y and not High Arrow i t was i r r e l e v a n t at the h e a r i n g and we never submitted i t . We should . have. Of course the a n a l y s i s was amateur and l a c k e d adequate r e f e r e n c e s . . . . " ( W a t e r f i e l d , 1970, p. 88) SYNTHESIS Once the data c o l l e c t i o n was completed f o r the f i v e dams, a s i n g l e l e v e l of r e s o l u t i o n was d e f i n e d i n order t o assess the impact upon t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e areas of timber supply, and t o a l l o w f o r comparison. In o r d e r :to narrow the gaps i n the data base, a number of i n f e r e n c e s and approximations were made. They occur when data are u n a v a i l a b l e , or when d i f f e r e n t sources r e v e a l d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s f o r the same element measured. 45 In a d d i t i o n t o the r e s u l t s d e r i v e d from q u a n t i t a t i v e e m p i r i c a l measurements, q u a l i t a t i v e parameters were c o n s i d e r e d , t o p o r t r a y the s i t u a t i o n as a c c u r a t e l y as p o s s i b l e (e.g. the " l o c a t i o n , advantage" o f a v a l l e y bottom f o r e s t l a n d ) . T h i s element o f s u b j e c t i v i t y i s d e a l t w i t h . e x p l i c i t l y , and i n isolation from q u a n t i t a t i v e values . PERSPECTIVE OF ANALYSIS Even a f t e r the data a r e - s y n t h e s i z e d i n a comprehensive form, the complexity of the system remains and l i t t l e i s known about how i t operates. The steps f o l l o w e d from the o b s e r v a t i o n o f f a c t s t o the i n f e r e n c e o f g e n e r a l p r o p e r t i e s o f the system ( i . e . i n d u c t i o n ) l e a d t o the e l a b o r a t i o n o f a timber supply ..and demand model. T h i s i s a s i m p l i f i c a t i o n , but i n m a i n t a i n i n g important r e l a t i o n s h i p s i t may be p o s s i b l e to p e r c e i v e impacts beyond a simple computation o f the volume and the area of f o r e s t l a n d a f f e c t e d by the dams. F i n a l l y , i t should be noted t h a t the u n i t s of measurement 3 are h e c t a r e s (ha) and c u b i c meters (m ), and economic va l u e i s p u r p o s e l y avoided. The monetary values o f f o r e s t l a n d , timber, and access road aspects are, however, the o b j e c t of s c r u t i n y of subsequent chapters of t h i s study. 46 IMPACTS UPON THE TIMBER SUPPLY TIMBER SUPPLY MODEL In a managed timber supply system, the f o r e s t l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y (the AAC) i s assessed i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o e c o l o g -i c a l , socio-economic, and t e c h n i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . E c o l o g -i c a l p rocesses s e t a t h e o r e t i c a l c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y , the a c h i e v e -ment of which i s r e s t r i c t e d by the s t r u c t u r e o f the ecosystem (e.g. age c l a s s e s , s p e c i e s composition, and d e n s i t y ) . S o c i o -economic . f a c t o r s , such as the l e v e l o f technology and market demand f u r t h e r reduce man's p e r c e p t i o n o f f o r e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y . F i n a l l y , t e c h n i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , or management p r a c t i c e s , such as the implementation of the maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d p o l i c y , the e x c l u s i o n of poorer p r o d u c t i v i t y and en v i r o n m e n t a l l y s e n s i t i v e areas s u b s t a n t i a l l y a f f e c t the l e v e l of the a c t u a l AAC. The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f timber supply i s t h e r e f o r e a dynamic process r e s u l t i n g from the i n t e r a c t i o n o f these t h r e e f a c t o r s . In order t o p e r c e i v e the magnitude of the impact of f o r e s t l a n d withdrawal t o hydro-dams i n the context o f timber supply, i t appears u s e f u l t o r e l a t e i t t o the change o c c u r r i n g i n the f o r e s t l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the area. The f o r e s t l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y , expressed as the maximum AAC o f the Timber Supply Area, can be a l t e r e d by a combination of p o s i t i v e and ne g a t i v e f a c t o r s . The AAC may i n c r e a s e with the improvement of the land, s i i v i c u l t u r a l treatments such as p l a n t i n g , t h i n n i n g , and spacing * )i 47 are measures t h a t c o u l d s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s e the y i e l d . A l s o , i f f o r e s t l a n d under ot h e r uses, such as marginal a g r i c u l t u r e , are r e t r i e v e d the AAC may i n c r e a s e from an expan-ded f o r e s t l a n d base. S i l v i c u l t u r e and l a n d put i n t o f o r e s t are two f a c t o r s p o s i t i v e l y a f f e c t i n g the AAC. S i m i l a r l y , two n e g a t i v e f a c t o r s may c o n t r i b u t e to dimin-i s h the f o r e s t l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y . F i r s t , l a n d degradation r e s u l t i n g from e r o s i o n , f i r e s , i n s e c t epidemy, d i s e a s e s , or "not s a t i s f a c t o r l y r e s t o c k e d " (NSR) areas f o l l o w i n g the h a r v e s t account f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n of the p r o d u c t i v i t y . Second, lan d withdrawal o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s e n s i t i v e areas (to a v o i d f u r t h e r l a n d degradation)., and the a l i e n a t i o n t o n o n - f o r e s t uses, such as a g r i c u l t u r e , urban development, hydro-dam r e s e r v o i r s and t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s - o f - w a y f u r t h e r reduce the a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d f o r timber p r o d u c t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , a combination of these f o u r f a c t o r s a c t i n g upon the maximum AAC r e s u l t s i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a net AAC. Then a c c o r d i n g t o the demands and requirements of the o p e r a t i n g f o r e s t companies of the TSA, c u t t i n g permits are i s s u e d which e s t a b l i s h the l e v e l of commitment. An area i s s a i d t o be f u l l y committed when the l e v e l of commitment equals the net AAC. F i n a l l y , p a r t l y depending on the market c o n d i t i o n s , the f o r e s t companies h a r v e s t a s c e r t a i n q u a n t i t y o f timber. The volume a c t u a l l y cut i s not n e c e s s a r i l y equal t o the volume a l l o t t e d t o the companies (commitment). In f a c t , u n d e r c u t t i n g or o v e r c u t t i n g i s frequent. However, i t i s i n the power of the F o r e s t S e r v i c e t o monitor the c u t t i n g l e v e l and to apply 48 s a n c t i o n s i f the cut i s not i n conformity w i t h the pe r m i t s , i n o r d e r t o f o l l o w the maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d p o l i c y . In the Kootenay r e g i o n (Nelson F o r e s t D i s t r i c t ) the l e v e l o f commit-ment i s c l o s e t o 100% meaning t h e r e f o r e t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e room f o r the esta b l i s h m e n t o f new companies or f o r expansion o f the e x i s t i n g ones. Moreover, problems of a c c e s s i b i l i t y i m p air a homogeneous d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h a r v e s t i n g a c t i v i t y i n the TSA's.' T h i s chapter i s concerned w i t h the r e d u c t i o n of timber supply r e s u l t i n g from hydro-dam a c t i v i t y . F i g u r e 4 i s a con-c e p t u a l flow diagram r e p r e s e n t i n g the timber supply system, as d e s c r i b e d i n the pr e c e d i n g paragraphs. The model p l a c e s the l a n d withdrawal i n t o p e r s p e c t i v e by d e f i n i n g the f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the e c o l o g i c a l a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e ' f o r e s t ecosystem and the volume o f timber e x t r a c t e d . The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n focusses on the land withdrawal component of the model, t o assess the r e d u c t i o n o f timber supply. The exten t o f the impact i s then more f u l l y a p p r e c i a t e d by s i t -u a t i n g i t i n the timber supply model and expanding f u r t h e r the p e r s p e c t i v e i n an i n t e g r a t e d timber supply and demand model. FOREST LAND WITHDRAWAL  Cl a s s e s o f Impact Environmental impact assessment can a c c u r a t e l y p r e d i c t the d i r e c t impact o f hydro-dam p r o j e c t s , such as the area t o be f l o o d e d , o r the timber volume l y i n g below the f l o o d l i n e . 49 E c o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s T i i _L_ FOREST LAND PRODUCTIVITY (Max. AAC) LAND DEGRADATION LAND WITHDRAWAL SILVICULTURE LAND PUT IN FORESTRY NET ANNUAL ALLOWABLE CUT COMMITMENT kr J VOLUME ACTUALLY CUT output F i g u r e 4. Timber Supply Model 50 The t e c h n i c a l f e a t u r e s of the p r o j e c t (e.g. l o c a t i o n of the dam, e l e v a t i o n of the r e s e r v o i r ) p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n f o r the assessment. However, the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of secondary impacts induced by the s h i f t from f o r e s t r y to hydro-dam r e l a t e d land-use a c t i v i t y i s a d i f f i c u l t task. T h i s i s f u r t h e r com-p l i c a t e d by the f a c t t h a t long-term e f f e c t s are d i f f i c u l t t o i s o l a t e from f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o the development of o t h e r land use a c t i v i t y , (such as r e c r e a t i o n ) , and t h a t the s i t e spec-i f i c i t y o f the p r o j e c t makes g e n e r a l i z a t i o n d i f f i c u l t . The " a f t e r the f a c t " nature of t h i s study may add p r e -c i s i o n and r e a l i s m t o p r e v i o u s a nalyses c a r r i e d out i n the Kootenay r e g i o n (see, f o r example, Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (19 75), and E n v i r o c o n (1975)). Indeed, from o b s e r v a t i o n on the dam s i t e and from the assessment o f the v a r i o u s groups a f f e c t e d by the p r o j e c t s , f o u r c l a s s e s of impact were i d e n -t i f i e d , namely: d i r e c t , i n d i r e c t ' , induced and l o c a t i o n impacts. F i r s t , the d i r e c t Impact r e f e r s t o the f o r e s t land s i t u a t e d i n the r e s e r v o i r ' s f l o o d i n g area. Because t h i s f o r e s t l a n d c o n s t i t u t e s a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e area of the b e s t growing s i t e s , and i t i s i n c l u d e d i n a s i n g l e area, i t c e r t a i n l y r e p r e s e n t s the g r e a t e s t impact i n terms of f o r e s t l a n d withdrawal. Second, the i n d i r e c t impact bears upon the f o r e s t l a n d withdrawal o u t s i d e the f l o o d i n g area, r e s u l t i n g from (1) the r e l o c a t i o n from the r e s e r v o i r area of n o n - f o r e s t land-uses (e.g. d i s r u p t e d roads r e b u i l t above the r e s e r v o i r , r e l o c a t i o n of communities, f i s h and w i l d l i f e p r o t e c t i o n areas) and 51 (2) the hydo-dam r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s (e.g. the dam i t s e l f , t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s , permanent working camps). T h i s impact i s addressed with a l e s s e r extent i n impact s t u d i e s ; however, i t i s a s i g n i f i c a n t component. The t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s , f o r example, encompass more f o r e s t l a n d i n the Kootenay r e g i o n than what i s to be f l o o d e d i n Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r , area. T h i r d , the induced impact r e f e r s t o r e s e r v o i r r e l a t e d land-use o c c u r r i n g on f o r e s t land. The development by B.C. Hydro o f r e c r e a t i o n areas f o r camping, boat l a u n c h i n g , and » swimming i s an example of such impact. The d i r e c t and i n -d i r e c t impacts c a l c u l a t i o n o f f e r s a h i g h degree of r e l i a -b i l i t y because of t h e i r i n c i d e n c e i n the s h o r t term and encompassing w e l l d e f i n e d a r e a s , whereas the induced impact bears a c e r t a i n l e v e l o f u n c e r t a i n t y . In many cases, t h i s i s mostly the r e s u l t of a l a c k of i n t e g r a t e d r e s e r v o i r management p l a n a t the time the p r o j e c t was proposed. However, as i t w i l l be d i s c u s s e d l a t e r , a p r e l i m i n a r y development p l a n was submitted f o r the Hugh Keenleyside Dam by B.C. Hydro (B.C. Hydro,1965), and a f t e r f l o o d i n g , the Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r was the s u b j e c t of a comprehensive resource management pro-p o s a l (Farquharson, 1974) and of an assessment of i t s r e c r e a t i o n a l p o t e n t i a l (Hanson, 19 75). Some recommendations o f these s t u d i e s were implemented, but i t seems t h a t there i s no f i r m commitment from the concerned government agencies t o f o l l o w any p a r t i c u l a r g u i d e l i n e i n terms o f r e s e r v o i r resource p l a n n i n g . T h i s concern has been o u t l i n e d by Griggs (1976) r e g a r d i n g the land-use c a p a b i l i t i e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n 52 at i t s h y d r o - e l e c t r i c r e s e r v o i r i n the case of Haywood Lake Dam i n Southwestern B.C. In t h i s study, the assessment of induced impacts i s l i m i t e d t o the implemented or approved r e s e r v o i r r e l a t e d l a n d -use o c c u r r i n g on f o r e s t land. Furthermore, as the induced impacts may be the r e s u l t o f a combination of f a c t o r s -some of which, f o r example, seem t o p e r t a i n t o the " n a t u r a l " i n c r e a s e o f demand f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l areas - t h e . r e s u l t s are not aggregated w i t h the d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t impacts. Fourth, the l o c a t i o n impact i s r e l a t e d t o (1) the l o s s o f the p a r t i c u l a r g e o g r a p h i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the area f l o o d e d , such as an advantageous p h y s i c a l a c c e s s i b i l i t y as a r e s u l t o f smooth topography and of the presence o f a r i v e r way, and (2) the change i n the f a c i l i t y o f access of the land above the r e s e r v o i r f o l l o w i n g the f l o o d i n g . For the former, the l o c a t i o n o f " o l d temporary tenures" (Timber B e r t h s , Timber L i c e n c e s , Timber Leases, Pulp L i c e n c e s , Pulp Leases) (Task Force on Crown Timber D i s p o s a l , 1974) being concentrated i n v a l l e y bottoms, may suggest t h a t these areas have a l o c a t i o n advantage which i s foregone when the areas are f l o o d e d . Obviously, t h i s i s r e l a t e d t o the presence of good f o r e s t s i t e s but a l s o , t o a c e r t a i n e x t e n t , t o the a b i l i t y t o secure the timber resource and to the p r o x i m i t y of the p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s . For the l a t t e r case of l o c a t i o n impact, the s h i f t t o a lake system from a r i v e r system has a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the s t r a t e g i e s o f access t o the timber resource and i t s 53 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . (e.g. from the use o f cable f e r r y and/or r i v e r d r i v e t o the est a b l i s h m e n t of dump s i t e s , water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and dewatering f a c i l i t i e s ) . The l o c a t i o n impact i s r e l a t e d t o the r e d u c t i o n of timber supply because t h i s type o f impact may exclude (or in c l u d e ) areas t h a t were a c c e s s i b l e (or i n a c c e s s i b l e ) p r i o r t o the f l o o d i n g . However, as i t i s p r a c t i c a l l y i m p o s s i b l e to i s o l a t e the determinant v a r i a b l e s and to q u a n t i f y the impact i n terms of timber volume, the l o c a t i o n impact i s des-c r i b e d q u a l i t a t i v e l y and serves the purpose o f p o r t r a y i n g the g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n . In the chapter t h a t d i s c u s s e s prob-lems of access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , t h i s aspect i s q u a n t i f i e d as c o s t s and b e n e f i t s a c c r u i n g t o the f o r e s t companies, the B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the B.C. Hydro. The f o l l o w i n g l a n d withdrawal diagram (Figure 5) i l l u s -t r a t e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the four c l a s s e s o f impacts and the r e d u c t i o n o f the growing c a p a c i t y o f the area. R e s u l t s Table 1 shows the elements c o n s i d e r e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the f o r e s t l a n d i n the f l o o d b a s i n , assuming t h a t the f o r e s t i s r e g u l a t e d t o pr o v i d e equal (or near equal) maximum annual cut at p e r p e t u i t y . R o t a t i o n i s t h e r e f o r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r the age at which the mean annual increment o f immature stands culminates. R o t a t i o n age a l s o determines the p e r i o d i n which over-mature timber i s d e p l e t e d . A few ob s e r v a t i o n s can be made from the values i n d i c a t e d . FOREST LAND RESERVOIR AREA -ill NON-FOREST LAND TOTAL FOREST LAND PORTION RELOCATED IN FOREST LAND ABOVE THE RESERVOIR HYDRO-DAM ACTIVITY RESERVOIR RELATED LAND-USE induced impact D NET LOSSES tlocationN X ^ ^ p a c t ^ [ACCESSIBILITY WITHIN RESERVOIR AREA ACCESSIBILITY ABOVE RESERVOIR AREA REMAINING FOREST LAND os-F i g u r e 5. Land withdrawal diagram. 55 REVELSTOKE DAM MICA DAM DUNCAN DAM SEVEN MILE DAM HUGH KEENLEYSIDE DAM ROTATION AGE (17.5 cm +) (R) 99 97 113 97 1 MATURE VOLUME/R (m3/ha) 5.07 3.64 3. 99 3.64 ROTATION AGE (12.5 cm +) (R) 90 83 88 83 MATURE VOLUME/R (m3/ha) 5.53 4.20 5. 11 4.20 PROPORTION OF MATURE VOLUME AREA TO TOTAL AREA (before c l e a r i n g ) -Year 48% 1975 67% 1968 46% 1962 37% 1975 75% 1962 MEAN ANNUAL INCREMENT (17.5 cm +) (m 3/ha/y) 3. 71 3. 12 3. 71 2.80 3.12 MEAN ANNUAL INCREMENT (12.5 cm +) (m3/ha/y) 4.13 3.26 3.78 2.94 3.26 ANNUAL ALLOWABLE CUT (AAC) 2 (m3/ha/y) - 17.5 cm + - 12.5 cm + 4.34 4.83 3. 47 3. 86 3.85 4.41 3.51 3.97 Table 1. C a l c u l a t i o n o f the p r o d u c t i v i t y i n the hydro-dam f l o o d b a s i n s . Source: See Appendix I 1. Assuming c o n d i t i o n s s i m i l a r - t o Mica Dam, and 75 percent mature volume area (due to u n a v a i l a b i l i t y of d a t a ) . 2. Volumes are net f o r decay o n l y , c l o s e u t i l i z a t i o n (10 cm t o p ) , and no allowance f o r l o s s e s . AAC = ( =— x percentage of mature volume area) + (I x percentage of immature volume area) 56 F i r s t , the dominancy of western red cedar i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h western hemlock in. Mica and Hugh Keenleyside dam f l o o d i n g areas shows s i m i l a r p a t t e r n s of growth. As a r e s u l t o f u n a v a i l a b i l i t y o f data, Hugh Keenleyside Dam r e s e r v o i r area c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are d e r i v e d from Mica's c o n d i t i o n s . Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area has western hemlock as a dominant s p e c i e s i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h the western red cedar. R e s u l t i n g from a 3 b e t t e r growing c a p a c i t y f o r western hemlock (4.1 m /ha/y) 3 than the western red cedar (3.7 m /ha/y), the h i g h e s t AAC occurs i n the Revelstoke area. Second, Duncan Dam i s l o c a t e d i n an area where the best growing s i t e s of t h e : i n t e r i o r of the p r o v i n c e are found. However, h y g r i c edaphic c o n d i t i o n s (high water content i n s o i l s ) p r e v a i l i n g i n the r e s e r v o i r area c u r t a i l the optimum growth of the-species. Red cedar i s the o u t s t a n d i n g s p e c i e s (66% of mature volume), being one of the few s p e c i e s to w i t h s t a n d the c o n d i t i o n s (KFP, 1961). T h i r d , i n Seven M i l e Dam area, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by very steep s l o p e s , f o r e s t growth i s impaired. Moreover, the g e n e r a l area surrounding the Pend O r e i l l e R i v e r has a l e s s e r p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y than the n o r t h e r n p a r t of the Kootenay r e g i o n , as i n d i c a t e d by Table 1. Table 2 shows the impacts of the major hydro-dams i n the Kootenay r e g i o n i n terms of f o r e s t l a n d withdrawal and the a s s o c i a t e d r e d u c t i o n of growing c a p a c i t y . To give the r e l a t i v e magnitude of the impacts, the numbers i n parentheses designate the percentage of l a n d and p r o d u c t i v i t y r e d u c t i o n o c c u r r i n g i n 57 ro < CD ft 0 *• <D p s « cn <D CD CD < 3 X a o> O H C OJ CD iQ i i >< 5 10 H-(-* o> CD CD RESERVOIR AREA (ha) 11,732 30,511 8,097 364 53,279 NON-FOREST LAND Water, swamps, and non-productive 3,664 11,501 5,223 273 25,911 Agriculture Settlement, unimproved and others 717 2,567 Roads 329 223 288 DIRECT IMPACT (ha) (2-7*) 1 (5.0%) (0.5%) <-> (1-0%) FOREST LAND WITHIN RESERVOIR AREA 7,021 16,219 2,874 91 1 1 , 0 3 / FOREST LAND OUTSIDE RESERVOIR AREA Transmission l i n e rights-of-way Dam s i t e Other hydro-related areas 589 - " 405 182 4 3 INDIRECT IMPACT RELOCATION OF NON-FOREST AREAS Roads 329 223 364 Agriculture Settlement (relocation) F i s h and W i l d l i f e mitigation Goldstream meadow deer 3 , winter Downie creek range LOSS OF FOREST LAND (direct impact only) AREA (ha) 7,792 16,219 2,874 539 11,057 PRODUCTIVITY (m3/ha/year) Short term Diameter l i m i t 17.5 cm+ 33,697 56,770 11,027 1,900 38,810 Diameter l i m i t 12.5 cm+ 37,237 64,661 12,666 43,896 Long term (12.5 cm+) 31,927 52,185 10,857 35,577 INDUCED IMPACT RESERVOIR RELATED LAND USES Recreation New settlement LOCATION IMPACT Within rese r v o i r Outside r e s e r v o i r 500 125 Table 2. Forest land withdrawal from hydro-dams i n the Kootenay Regi< (from best available data) 1. Numbers i n parentheses indicate percentage of f o r e s t land flooded timber supply area. Source: See Appendix I. 58 the Timber Supply Area ( i n c l u d i n g p r i v a t e tenures) where the dam i s l o c a t e d , namely: Revelstoke Dam: - Revelstoke TSA (Arrowhead PSYU)^ - North block o f Tree-farm L i c e n c e # 23 - Tree-farm # 38 - Timber Berth # 74 and the Timber L i c e n c e s w i t h i n the PSYU and the TFL #23 (north block) Mica Dam: - Golden TSA (Kinbasket PSYU) - Old temporary tenures w i t h i n the PSYU Duncan Dam: - Kootenay .Lake TSA (Creston and Lardea PSYU's) - Tree.farm #27 - Old temporary tenures w i t h i n the PSYU's Seven M i l e Dam: - Same as Duncan Dam Hugh Keenelside - Arrow TSA (Salmo, Slocan and Nakusp PSYU's) Dam: - TFL # 23 (south block) - TFL # 3 - Old temporary tenures l o c a t e d i n the above. Mica and Hugh Keenleyside dams were designed t o s t o r e water, thus p r o v i d i n g downstream b e n e f i t s f o r the U.S. dams on the Columbia (Canada, (1964); K r u t i l l a , (1967)). ; I t i s not s u r p r i s i n g , t h e r e f o r e , to remark t h a t they possess the l a r g e s t r e s e r v o i r areas of the r e g i o n . Duncan Dam, l o c a t e d on a t r i b u t a r y of the Columbia R i v e r , the Duncan R i v e r , i s a l s o a storage Dam, but w i t h a much s m a l l e r c a p a c i t y (1.4 m i l l i o n a c r e - f e e t , whereas Mica and Hugh Keenleyside dams have r e s p e c t i v e l y 12 m i l l i o n and 7.1 m i l l i o n a c r e - f e e t o f storage c a p a c i t y (one a c r e - f o o t equals 1,234 c u b i c m e t e r s ) ) . ^ Public Sustained Yield Units (PSYU) are in the process of being trans-formed into Timber Supply Areas (TSA). There are some modifications in the delineation of the boundary, which may induce a factor of error in the measurement of the areas of concern. However, in the context of this study, it may be considered as minimal. 59 The c o n s t r u c t i o n of the Revelstoke Dam i s p a r t l y j u s t i f i e d by the "downstream b e n e f i t s " generated by the storage of water r e t a i n e d by Mica Dam. Even i f a s i g n i f i c a n t area w i l l be f l o o d e d , the dam i s l a b e l l e d a " r u n - o f - t h e - r i v e r " type, probably because the power generated w i l l be important com-pared t o the r e s e r v o i r storage c a p a c i t y . Seven M i l e Dam i s a l s o a " r u n - o f - t h e - r i v e r " type dam. T h i s i s a consequence of the presence of a storage dam l o c a t e d upstream on the Pend O r e i l l e R i v e r and a l s o by the steepness of the r i v e r v a l l e y s i d e s . In terms of f o r e s t l a n d f l o o d e d , Mica Dam i s by f a r the most important. F i g u r e 6 shows the r e l a t i v e importance of the f o r e s t l a n d f l o o d e d i n terms of area i n v o l v e d and f o r e s t s i t e s . The 1968 U n i t Survey i n d i c a t e s the gross volume of the area, reduced to a Net Inventory accounting f o r areas e c o l o g i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e (EPA) and p r e s e n t i n g access problems (EPF). Then, f o r e s t growth i s simulated to the end of the p l a n n i n g p e r i o d (1989), t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n v a r i o u s l o s s e s t o r e p r e s e n t the Working Inventory. F i n a l l y , approximately one t h i r d o f t h i s value i s a l l o t e d t o the f o r e s t companies f o r the 20 year p e r i o d . I t should be noted t h a t , an a d d i t i o n a l 12,150 h e c t a r e s , l y i n g o u t s i d e the r e g i o n , were f l o o d e d , most of the l a n d being f o r e s t . Mica Dam, b e s i d e s storage a l s o produces e l e c t r i c i t y ( a u t h o r i z e d c a p a c i t y of 2,610 megawatts). The two 500 k i l o -v o l t t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s - o f - w a y are l o c a t e d i n the n o r t h b l o c k of TFL # 23 and TF # 38, and t h e r e f o r e , are taken i n t o 160 120 80 40 J MICA DAM RESERVOIR AREA GOOD \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ 22.35% GOLDEN TSA 19.45% KOOTENAY REGION 11.00% MEDIUM 41.55% 47.60% 52.00% n \ \ \ \ LEGEND | | 1968 Kinbasket PSYU Unit Survey J * \ J 196 8 Net Inventory [—j 1968-89 Working Inventory Area A l l o t e d to the Companies fo r 1969-89 perio d Forest Land Area Flooded POOR 36.02% 32.69% 34.00% LOW 0.08% 0.27% 3. 00% Figure 6*. Relative area of forest sites located in Mica Dam reservoir, compared to local and regional conditions. * Source: 1968 Kinbasket PSYU Unit Survey, BCFS (1980b), and M i n i s t r y of Forests (1980) 61 account i n the Revelstoke Dam area. The Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r s t r e t c h i n g from 5 k i l o m e t e r s n o r t h o f Revelstoke t o the fo o t o f Mica Dam, a l s o encompasses a s i g n i f i c a n t f o r e s t land area. Mica Dam t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s - o f - w a y and the Revelstoke Dam double 500 kV t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s - o f - w a y f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e the extent o f the impact. F i g u r e 7 d e p i c t s the r e l a t i v e importance o f the f l o o d e d f o r e s t l a n d i n terms o f f o r e s t s i t e i n the case o f Revelstoke Dam. Both Mica and Revelstoke dam r e s e r v o i r areas encompass b e t t e r f o r e s t s i t e s than the r e g i o n a l average, and s l i g h t l y b e t t e r than the l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s . I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r s i l v i -c u l t u r e are d i s c u s s e d l a t e r i n the chapter. SITES (%) GOOD MEDIUM POOR LOW Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area 13.2 84.4 2.4 -Revelstoke area 9.1 79.2 11. 7 -Kootenay Region 11. 0 54.0 32.0 3 F i g u r e 7. Relative areas: of forest sites located i n Revelstoke Dam reservoir area, compared to local and "regional conditions* * D e r i v e d from d i s t r i b u t i o n o f immature f o r e s t stands i n TFL 2 3 North Block (TFL 2 3 Inventory Data) and M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s (1980). Mica and Revelstoke dam r e s e r v o i r areas i n v o l v e mostly f o r e s t l a n d , and f o r e s t r y i s the major a c t i v i t y o f the n o r t h -ern p a r t o f the Kootenays. In the case o f Hugh Keenleyside Dam 62 r e s e r v o i r area t h i s i s somewhat d i f f e r e n t . A g r i c u l t u r e l a n d -use was l o c a l l y important, and the displacement and r e l o c a t i o n of communities were at the f o r e of the i s s u e (Wilson (1973), W a t e r f i e l d (1970,1973)). The l o s s of f o r e s t l a n d was s i g n i f i c a n t , however, i n g e n e r a l , the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y was not s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d . The Duncan Dam r e s e r v o i r area d i d not c o n t a i n an important p o r t i o n of f o r e s t l a n d . The s p r i n g r u n - o f f s and the frequent f l o o d i n g of the area i n h i b i t e d the growth of t r e e s ; which l i m i t e d the l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s (KFP, 1964). Seven M i l e Dam i s l o c a t e d on the Pend O r e i l l e R i v e r where i t would be more a p p r o p r i a t e to c h a r a c t e r i z e the r e s e r v o i r area as a "canyon" i n s t e a d of a v a l l e y bottom. F o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y was not i n t e n s i v e l y developed and, moreover, the land-use c a p a b i l i t y appeared to be more s u i t a b l e f o r deer w i n t e r range than i n d u s t r i a l f o r e s t r y (Envirocon, 1975). The g r i d of t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s of the Kootenay Region not r e l a t e d t o the dams s t u d i e d accounts f o r approximately 8,000 ha. Assuming 8 0 percent i s p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t land w i t h an 3 average AAC of 3.5 m /ha/y, l o s s e s to t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s -3 of-way may r e p r e s e n t approximately 22,400 m a n n u a l l y . The i n d i r e c t impact i s mostly a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the r e l o c a t i o n of roads. In the e a r l y development of the r e g i o n , there was a n a t u r a l tendency f o r d e v e l o p i n g the communities a l o n g s i d e important waterways (Columbia R i v e r , Kootenay Lake, Kootenay River) and, t h e r e f o r e , l e a d i n g to the c o n s t r u c t i o n of roads i n the v a l l e y bottoms near the water. As a r e s u l t the f l o o d i n g 63 of 550 k i l o m e t e r s o f the Columbia R i v e r v a l l e y d i s r u p t e d an important p a r t of p r i n c i p a l roads. A p a r t o f the B i g Bend Highway was f l o o d e d by the Mica Dam p r o j e c t , 90 k i l o m e t e r s of the Highway #2 3 i s p r e s e n t l y r e l o c a t e d because of the R e v e l -stoke Dam p r o j e c t , and approximately 100 k i l o m e t e r s of roads running a l o n g s i d e the Arrow Lakes were inundated by the Hugh Keenleyside Dam p r o j e c t . In the l a t t e r case roads were r e p l a c e d ; f o r the Revelstoke Dam, Highway #23 i s being r e l o c a t e d above the r e s e r v o i r area. In the case o f Mica Dam,., however, the B i g Bend Highway was not r e c o n s t r u c t e d . Although some m i t i g a t i o n measures were undertaken; B.C. Hydro, the.B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e , and Evans Products p r o v i d e d funds to extend the West Columbia road, l o c a t e d n o r t h o f Beavermouth (see Chapter I I I ) . A c c o r d i n g t o the Volume over Age curve index by growth type and s i t e (BCFS, 19 80) the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the f o r e s t l a n d withdrawn can be d e r i v e d . Table 2 p r e s e n t s the r e s u l t s i n three c a t e g o r i e s , (1) i n r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the c u r r e n t i n v e n t o r y c a l c u l a t i o n , i . e . , t r e e s i n v e n t o r i e d are of a diameter l i m i t o f 17.5 cm+, volume are net f o r decay o n l y , and 10 cm top, (2) a c l o s e r e s t i m a t i o n of the volume at 12.5 cm+ diameter l i m i t , and (3) a long term p r o d u c t i v i t y t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n o n l y the annual growth increment ( i . e . the o l d -growth volume i s l i q u i d a t e d ) . I t should be noted t h a t the long term p r o d u c t i v i t y does not take i n t o account s i t e and stand improvements, which w i l l c e r t a i n l y occur on the best growing s i t e and, t h e r e f o r e , i n c r e a s e s , t h i s v a l u e . 64 The induced impact i s a more d e l i c a t e s u b j e c t t o apprehend, because the impact i s l i k e l y t o occur i n the long run as a r e s u l t of the f o l l o w i n g reasons: (1) l a n d - s l i d e problems f o l l o w i n g the f l o o d i n g may r e -s t r i c t the use o f the area f o r a p e r i o d of time, 02) the c l e a r i n g o f the f l o a t i n g d e b r i s may take some year s , (a p r o j e c t e d 12 years f o r Mica r e s e r v o i r (Chretien and Gaudin, 1979)), and r e s t r i c t i n g the r e c r e a t i o n a l use of the " l a k e " (Drown, 1979), (3) time l a g from the p u b l i c to p e r c e i v e the o p p o r t u n i t i e s c r e a t e d by the r e s e r v o i r , and to generate a demand, (4) time l a g to make d e c i s i o n s and t o t h e i r implementation. The l e v e l of u n c e r t a i n t y i s f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e d by a l a c k o f an i n t e g r a t e d r e s e r v o i r management p l a n , and by e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s t h a t would c r e a t e a demand upon the r e s e r v o i r area f o r non-timber land-use. N e v e r t h e l e s s , keeping these l i m i t -a t i o n s i n mind, i t i s p o s s i b l e to document t h i s impact f o r some cases. For i n s t a n c e , a g e n e r a l p l a n was designed and presented to the r e s i d e n t s of the Arrow Lakes area (B.C. Hydro, 1965). I t encompassed the c r e a t i o n o f parks a l o n g s i d e the r e s e r v o i r (Syringa Creek and Blanket Creeks parks were implemented), r e s e t t l e m e n t areas, p o s s i b l e t o w n s i t e s , road r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , developable l a n d , and a new a i r p o r t s i t e near Revelstoke. Mica R e s e r v o i r , now named Kinbasket Lake, was the sub-j e c t of a comprehensive resource management p l a n (Farquharson, 19 74). The recommendations were onl y p a r t i a l l y implemented, however i t may be of i n t e r e s t to gain some i n s i g h t on what an i n t e g r a t e d resource management p l a n c o u l d imply i n terms of f o r e s t r y impacts. 65 Revelstoke Dam w i l l be completed i n 1983 , and the o n l y f o r e s e e a b l e r e s e r v o i r r e l a t e d land-use i s the p l a n n i n g o f three boat ramps, camping and p i c n i c areas as w e l l as view-p o i n t s along the r e s e r v o i r (B.C. Hydro, 1978). "For v a r i o u s reasons i t i s expected t h a t the r e s e r v o i r w i l l be a t t r a c t i v e f o r r e c -r e a t i o n - s p e c i f i c a l l y water r e l a t e d r e c -r e a t i o n . Under the terms of the Water Licen c e $1,000,000 i s a v a i l a b l e from B.C. Hydro f o r the P r o v i n c i a l Park Branch t o develop f a c i l i t i e s . " ( M i n i s t r y o f R e c r e a t i o n and Tourism, 1978, p. 1) T h i r t e e n s i t e s have been i d e n t i f i e d as having good pot-e n t i a l f o r park development along the highway c o r r i d o r on the e a s t s i d e of the Columbia R i v e r , a ccounting f o r a p p r o x i -mately 620 ha - 500 ha of which i s c o n s i d e r e d as h i g h p r i o r i t y . Moreover, ele v e n s i t e s on the west s i d e , and ten upland areas have been i d e n t i f i e d as having s i g n i f i c a n t r e c r e a t i o n v a l u e s ( M i n i s t r y of R e c r e a t i o n and Tourism, 1978). A major expenditure o f over 3 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s was a l l o -c ated f o r the c l e a r i n g of the Duncan Dam r e s e r v o i r (BCFS, 1980a). T h i s program was c a r r i e d out a f t e r the f l o o d i n g , to permit n a v i g a t i o n on the l a k e . The Seven M i l e Dam r e s e r v o i r c u r r e n t l y e x periences l a n d - s l i d e problems and i t s use i s r e s t r i c t e d . A consensus t h a t appears t o emerge i s t h a t the major r e s e r v o i r land-use t o develop i n the near f u t u r e i s r e c r e a t i o n , and i t may cause c e r t a i n c o n f l i c t s w i t h the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y . However, a d i s t i n c t i o n must be made between " r u n - o f - t h e - r i v e r " and storage types of dams. As a r e s u l t o f wide f l u c t u a t i o n s 66 of water l e v e l and drawdown l e v e l o c c u r r i n g i n e a r l y summer, r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l would l i k e l y be reduced f o r storage dams. The l o c a t i o n impact does not r e f e r to an a c t u a l r e d u c t i o n of timber supply, but to a q u a l i f i c a t i o n i l l u s t r a t i n g the impact i n terms o f : (1) the l o s s o f p a r t i c u l a r geographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the area f l o o d e d , (2) the change i n the f a c i l i t y o f access of the l a n d above the r e s e r v o i r . The second aspect, which has s i g n i f i c a n t consequence f o r the case o f Mica, Revelstoke and Hugh Keenleyside dams, i s s p e c i f i c a l l y addressed i n the next chapter. In the f i r s t a s pect, Revelstoke and Mica dam r e s e r v o i r area l o c a t i o n impacts are q u a l i f i e d as very s i g n i f i c a n t because of (1) advantageous g e o g r a p h i c a l f e a t u r e s ( r e l a t i v e l y f l a t t e r r a i n , r a t i o f o r e s t land t o r e s e r v o i r area r e l a t i v e l y high ( r e s p e c t i v e l y .6/1 and .53/1 f o r Revelstoke and M i c a ) ) ; (2) p r o x i m i t y and importance of the Columbia R i v e r ( e s p e c i a l l y f o r Revelstoke a r e a ) ; (3) p r o x i m i t y o f p r o v i n c i a l highway; and (4) presence o f o l d temporary tenures and p r i v a t e t r e e farm (accounting f o r more than 25% of the f o r e s t l a n d f l o o d e d ) . Hugh Keenleyside r e s e r v o i r area l o c a t i o n impact i s s i g n i f i c a n t , but to a l e s s e r e xtent because of a lower r a t i o o f f o r e s t l a n d t o r e s e r v o i r area (.21/1), and because of the m u l t i p l i c i t y o f land-uses i n the area. Duncan Dam and Seven M i l e Dam r e s e r v o i r s have the l e a s t s i g n i f i c a n t l o c a t i o n impact because of extreme s p r i n g f l o o d i n g which was frequent i n the f i r s t case, and i n the second case, the steepness of the v a l l e y s i d e s . 67 DYNAMICS OF THE TIMBER SUPPLY MODEL F o l l o w i n g the assessment of the impact of hydro-dams upon the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the f o r e s t l a n d base, the r e s u l t s ought t o be i n c l u d e d i n the g e n e r a l context of timber supply, as o u t l i n e d i n the diagram of F i g u r e 4. In f a c t , the a b s o l u t e values o f r e d u c t i o n of the AAC presented p r e v i o u s l y do not have much s i g n i f i c a n c e , i n terms o f the impacts upon the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y , i f they are not r e l a t e d t o the d i s p o s i -b i l i t y o f timber and i t s use. To make a comparison with a p o p u l a r environmental impact assessment technique, the Leopold impact matrix, the c a l c u l a t i o n of the l a n d withdrawal r e f e r s t o the magnitude o f the impact i n i t s absolute sense; and the f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n addresses the n o t i o n o f importance o f the impact, r e l a t e d t o time, space, and socio-economic circumstances (Szaraz, 1978). The percentage r e d u c t i o n o f AAC by f i v e dams i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o the t o t a l AAC o f the r e l e v a n t areas (see Table 2) allows one t o assess the r e l a t i v e impact upon the timber supply. Understandably, Mica Dam has the g r e a t e s t impact (6.5%), f o l l o w e d by Revelstoke Dam (3.6%), Hugh Keenleyside Dam (2.7%), Duncan Dam (0.8%), and f i n a l l y Seven M i l e Dam w i t h a n e g l i g i b l e percentage o f the t o t a l AAC. To be c o n s i s t e n t with the process o u t l i n e d i n F i g u r e 4, a f u r t h e r step has t o be taken, namely: to r e l a t e the r e d u c t i o n of timber supply t o the l e v e l o f .commitment o f the Timber 68 Supply Area"1" and the volume a c t u a l l y cut. For t h i s purpose, the cases o f Revelstoke and Mica dams are r e t a i n e d because they o f f e r the h i g h e s t i n t e n s i t y o f impact when the impact on the t o t a l AAC, the l e v e l o f commitment, and timber supply outlook are taken i n t o account. The e v o l u t i o n of the volume cut by the f o r e s t companies i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o the maximum net AAC and the l e v e l o f commitment set by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e t h a t ' the annual flow of timber i s i n a c r i t i c a l p o s i t i o n (see F i g u r e s 8 and 9). T h i s s i t u a t i o n suggests t h a t a r e d u c t i o n of timber supply may have a g r e a t e r r e p e r c u s s i o n than i n i t i a l l y p e r c e i v e d . Moreover, the recent F o r e s t Resource A n a l y s i s T e c h n i c a l Report ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980) makes p r o j e c t i o n s f o r the Revelstoke and Golden TSA 1s.which confirms the t r e n d of a p o s s i b l e timber supply d i s r u p t i o n . "At the 1978 commitment l e v e l , the r e g i o n a l s t a f f cannot see more than f i v e years of wood supply ( f o r the Revelstoke TSA). Very steep s l o p e s , l a r g e areas o f decadent, over-mature hemlock-cedar stands and h i g h access c o s t s are a l l problems. T h i s a n a l y s i s has been a d j u s t e d to account f o r he l a r g e area t h a t w i l l be f l o o d e d by the Revelstoke 1880 dam. The r e s e r v o i r w i l l c r e a t e access and l a n d - s l i p p a g e problems. The L2 p r o d u c t i o n t a r g e t (19 77 commitment l e v e l ) can be maintained f o r 10 to 20 years (f o r Golden TSA). The drop i s expected to be severe because the age c l a s s e s 1 to 6 combined.(immature t r e e s ) r e p r e s e n t o n l y 40 percent of the a v a i l a b l e area.... In The reference to data source prior to 1980 is expressed with respect to the Public Sustained Yield Units, and projections are made with respect to Timber Supply Area. The assumption of their equality is:'.hot'.misleading.'.in the context of this study. 6 9 Figures 8 and 9. Maximum annual allowable cut, commitment, and volume a c t u a l l y cut f o r Arrowhead and Kinbasket PSYU's* * Source: M i n i s t r y of Forests, Annual Reports. 70 t h i s TSA, there are l a r g e volumes of over-mature, decadent hemlock-cedar, spruce-balsam stands which cannot be used. E n v i r -onmental c o n s t r a i n t s and o p e r a b i l i t y problems are severe. There are t r a n s p o r t a t i o n prob-lems on the new l a k e . Once again, the a v a i l -able wood i s very s e n s i t i v e t o market con-d i t i o n s . " ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , 1980, p. 498) The timber supply s i t u a t i o n i s t h e r e f o r e c r i t i c a l . I t c e r t a i n l y does not a l l o w f o r the entrance of new companies, or f o r s i g n i f i c a n t expansion o f presen t f i r m s ; and even t o maintain the c u r r e n t l e v e l o f cut i s d o u b t f u l . When the timber supply areas are looked upon as a whole ( i . e . aggregate form o f a l l the f o r e s t tenures) supply problems appear e v i d e n t . As managers of the timber r e s o u r c e , and com-m i t t e d t o the n o t i o n o f s u s t a i n e d y i e l d f o r e s t management,, the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f the F o r e s t S e r v i c e are aware of the problem. Commenting on Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t i t was argued t h a t : "... b e n e f i t s d e r i v e d from the f o r e s t cannot be s u s t a i n e d on a c o n t i n u o u s l y d i m i n i s h i n g l a n d base. Over-commitment o f the f o r e s t resource a f f e c t s not onl y s u s t a i n e d y i e l d management of the f o r e s t crop but leads t o d e t e r i o r a t i o n of mult-i p l e resource management and watershed and environmental s t a b i l i t y . When the land base a v a i l a b l e t o f o r e s t r y i s reduced, expect-a t i o n s from the f o r e s t must a l s o be reduced." (BCFS,-1976) However, a breakdown o f the supply areas i n t o the v a r i o u s types o f ownerships g i v e s a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e f o r the Revelstoke Dam area. Canadian C e l l u l o s e , Beaumont Timber, Downie S t r e e t Sawmills, Drew Sawmills, Evans Products, B e l l P o l e , and Joe Kozek.Sawmills are the e s t a b l i s h e d o p e r a t o r s . Canadian C e l l u l o s e (Cancel) holds a Tree-farm L i c e n c e (TFL #23, north 71 b l o c k ) , which covers about t w o - t h i r d s of the area surrounding Revelstoke Dam. In a b r i e f submitted to the Royal Commission of the F o r e s t Resource, Cancel's concern r e g a r d i n g l a n d w i t h -drawal was e n u n c i a t e d as f o l l o w s : "To date (1975)> annual a l l o w a b l e volumes have not been s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t e d by boundary changes or withdrawals of p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t l a n d i n the TFL and any l o s s e s have been mainly c o n f i n e d to t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s and the c r e a t i o n of the Arrow R e s e r v o i r . Any f u r t h e r w i t h -drawals of p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t l a n d f o r hydro p r o j e c t s , park r e s e r v e s and the l i k e would have a s u b s t a n t i a l l y more severe impact ..." (Cancel, 1975, p. 14) However, the r e d u c t i o n o f timber supply by the c r e a t i o n of Revelstoke Dam ( l e s s than 1% of ..TFL #23 AAC's) i s not a f f e c t i n g the timber supply of the company (Thorp, 1980). Beaumont Timber possesses a Tree Farm, (T F #38) s i g n i f i c a n t l y e f f e c t e d by the p r o j e c t ; 1,782 h e c t a r e s o f a t o t a l 15,020 ha l i e s below the flood, l i n e (Coleman, 1980). Tree Farm #38 i s a fee simple l a n d , o r i g i n a l l y granted under the "Eagle Pass Wagon Road Act" o f 1884, p r i v a t e l y owned and managed f o r f o r e s t r y purposes under a t a x a t i o n i n c e n t i v e . Nego-t i a t i o n s are p r e s e n t l y under way w i t h B.C. Hydro and monetary compensation w i l l l i k e l y occur, even i f , i d e a l l y , a - la n d exchange would have been more a p p r o p r i a t e from the company's viewpoint (Coleman, 1980). Land exchanges have o c c u r r e d i n the p a s t such as i n the case of Kootenay F o r e s t Products i n the Duncan Dam r e s e r v o i r area. However, wit h the l e v e l of commitment experie n c e d i n the Revelstoke area, t h i s seems u n l i k e l y t o take p l a c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , TF #38 AAC was r a i s e d 72 from 12,360 to 24,720 c u b i c meters a year f o r the next 10 to 12 y e a r s , i n order t o l i q u i d a t e an important p o r t i o n of the overmature timber and r e e s t a b l i s h a proper d i s t r i -b u t i o n o f age c l a s s e s . T h i s appears t o be a remedy t o the timber supply problems, but, as the long term AAC i s approximately 7,065 c u b i c meters, i t c o u l d be of help i n the s h o r t run only. Downie S t r e e t Sawmills i s a l s o an important o p e r a t o r i n the area. 530 ha (of a t o t a l 1,620 ha) of Timber L i c e n c e s l i e under the f l o o d l i n e (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1975). T h i s i s not l i k e l y t o a f f e c t the company because i t holds a 12 year c u t t i n g permit i n the western p o r t i o n o f TFL #23 no r t h b l o c k , which accounts f o r 20,250 c u b i c meters per year. A l s o , the company i s contemplating a major expenditure t o i n c r e a s e i t s e f f i c i e n c y i n timber u t i l i z a t i o n .(MeIs., 1980). Seventy per cent of Drew Sawmills' l o g supply i s d e r i v e d from areas n o r t h of Revelstoke (Madlung, 1979), from Cancel, Beaumont and from Timber L i c e n c e s . The company a l s o has quotas i n the Eagle and the Kinbasket PSYU's, and t h e r e f o r e w i l l l i k e l y be m i n i m a l l y a f f e c t e d by the dam. B e l l Pole and Joe.Kozed Sawmills o b t a i n t h e i r logs as L i c e n c e e s and they a l s o r e l y on the open market. They may be a f f e c t e d by d i m i n i s h i n g s u p p l i e s of lo g s s o l d at a h i g h e r p r i c e . In summary, the major o p e r a t o r s of the Revelstoke area do not c o n s i d e r the s i t u a t i o n t o be c r i t i c a l , as suggested by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e . They have a d j u s t e d themselves t o the 73 new c o n d i t i o n s by d i f f e r e n t means (which should perhaps be q u a l i f i e d as temporary s o l u t i o n s ) and the flow o f timber s u p p l i e d i n the area does not appear t o be d i s r u p t e d . The case of the Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r area i s r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t . The volume cut was always below the maximum net 7AAC, and, on the average, the commitment and the volume cut are comparable (see F i g u r e 9). The Golden TSA ( i . e . f o r m e r l y Kinbasket PSYU) i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the presence o f one l a r g e o p e r a t o r , Evans Products, and a few s m a l l e r ones. In 1975, the quota h o l d e r s i n the Kinbasket PSYU were as f o l l o w s : Evans Products 538,020 c u b i c meters Canadian W i l l i a m e t t e (84,950) Crestbrook F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s (51,760) Domtar 49,500 B e l l Pole 9,780 Palumbo, C & S 1,32 0 T i n g s t a d 130 735,460 (Hanson, 1975) Since then, Canadian W i l l i a m e t t e and Crestwood F o r e s t Pro-ducts have r e l i n q u i s h e d t h e i r c u t t i n g r i g h t s . The f l o o d i n g of 16,220 ha (6.5 percent o f the AAC) d i d not a f f e c t the quota h o l d e r s i n terms o f r e d u c i n g t h e i r supply of timber. The margin of m a n o e u v e r a b i l i t y was wide enough t o be a b u f f e r t o the impacts i n t e n s i t y . However, the l o c a t i o n impact, d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r i s s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h i s case. The south p o r t i o n o f the PSYU has been h e a v i l y logged i n the p a s t decades and, t h e r e f o r e , no c u t t i n g permits are being i s s u e d (Evans Products, 1974)'. In f a c t , 74 "The F o r e s t S e r v i c e u n i t survey o f 196 8 showed about e i g h t y percent of the mat-ure timber remaining i n the Kinbasket PSYU was adjacent t o the f l o o d b a s i n (of Mica Dam)." (Hanson, 1975, p. 48) Moreover, as a r e s u l t o f problems of a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n the v i c i n i t y o f the r e s e r v o i r , a f r a c t i o n o f the timber i s p r a c t i c a l l y (and economically) u n a v a i l a b l e under present circumstances. The presence o f d e b r i s c o v e r i n g Kinbasket Lake f o r a few more years ( C h r e t i e n and Gaudin, 1979), the time l a g i n v o l v e d i n the p l a n n i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n o f dumps and dewatering f a c i l i t i e s , and the problems i n v o l v e d i n the development of a p r i n c i p a l , access road on the west s i d e of the r e s e r v o i r (Brock (1980), Penno (1980)) are a l l reasons t o b e l i e v e t h a t the companies o p e r a t i n g i n the area may s u f f e r , i n the short-term, from problems r e l a t e d t o the supply o f timber. As a c o n c l u d i n g remark t o t h i s s e c t i o n d e a l i n g w i t h the dynamics o f timber supply, i t must be noted t h a t R e v e l -stoke and Mica dams are c o r r e l a t e d t o the problems evoked i n the f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n , but, other f a c t o r s , not addressed i n t h i s study, are a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n . TIMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND INTERACTIONS The examination of the problems emerging from the l o s s of f o r e s t l a n d i s r e l e v a n t t o the extent t h a t a demand f o r the f o r e s t resource e x i s t s . A resource a c q u i r e s value when a demand i s e x e r c i s e d upon i t . However, to be p e r c e i v e d , 75 the demand does not n e c e s s a r i l y have t o be expressed on the market p l a c e , or t o demonstrate a need f o r an immediate use ( i . e . the n o t i o n o f c o n s e r v a t i o n ) . For the timber r e s o u r c e , the demand stimulus i s generated by socio-economic f a c t o r s , which r e s u l t i n the undertaking of s p e c i f i c a c t i o n s by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y . These a c t i o n s can be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o three c l a s s e s of a c t i v i t y : the h a r v e s t , the development o f access t o the timber, and the enhancement o f timber supply by s i l v i -c u l t u r e and/or by i n c r e a s i n g the f o r e s t land base. The a l l o c a t i o n o f economic res o u r c e s (labour, c a p i t a l , t e c h n i c a l , a s s i s t a n c e and equipment) among these three a c t i v i t i e s i s determined a c c o r d i n g t o the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the timber supply system. Thus when timber supply outweighs the demand, and i s a v a i l a b l e c l o s e t o the p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t , or by a water way, the h a r v e s t c o n s t i t u t e s the major a c t i v i t y ; as t h i s was the case i n the e a r l y p a r t o f the century. With the development o f new t e c h n o l o g i e s h a r v e s t methods are e v o l v i n g over the years. The equipment i s becoming more s o p h i s t i c a t e d , r e q u i r e s s k i l l e d o p e r a t o r s , h i g h e r input o f energy, both o f which mean hi g h e r o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . However, the a d d i t i o n a l expenditure f o r machinery i s j u s t i f i e d o n l y i f i n c r e a s e d e x t r a c t i o n c o s t s are reimbursed by high e r revenues, which i n t u r n , stem from i n c r e a s e d demand. S i m i l a r l y , as timber supply l o c a t e d at the p r o x i m i t y of market i s d e p l e t e d and given a demand f o r the product, economic resources are a l l o c a t e d t o the development o f access 76 roads t o reach the timber stands p r e v i o u s l y i n a c c e s s i b l e . One can conceive o f a s e t o f c o n c e n t r i c c i r c l e s , o r i g i n a t i n g a t the p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t , expanding as. market c o n d i t i o n s become fav o u r a b l e and technology develops. F i n a l l y , a f u r t h e r step i s reached when the a v a i l a b l e timber i s i n s u f f i c i e n t t o meet the demand. T h i s may s t i m u l a t e the a l l o c a t i o n o f economic resources t o i n c r e a s e the timber supply. The timber supply model (see F i g u r e 4) shows two areas where the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the land may be enhanced: (1) to put land i n t o f o r e s t p r o d u c t i o n , such as marginal farm l a n d s , and (2) by s i l v i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s , such as p l a n t i n g , spacing, and t h i n n i n g . In p r a c t i c e , the former case i s of minimal use. The l a t t e r however, i s g a i n i n g importance and appears t o be a pro m i s i n g s o l u t i o n , along with b e t t e r timber u t i l i z a t i o n , t o b r i d g e the gap between the timber supply and i t s demand. t By combining the above elements of the timber demand with those of the timber supply model, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c o n c e p t u a l i z e an expanded timber supply and demand model, as i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 10. A f t e r e s t a b l i s h i n g the timber supply and demand r e l a t i o n -s h i p s , i t becomes e v i d e n t t h a t a change on the timber supply s i d e w i l l have r e p e r c u s s i o n s on the demand s i d e ( i . e . i n the a l l o c a t i o n o f economic resource among the three a c t i v i t i e s ) . A g r a p h i c a l i l l u s t r a t i o n o f the model's behaviour t o land withdrawal i s shown i n Appendix I I . FOREST LAND PRODUCTIVITY (Max. AAC) Fr a c t i o n of acc e s s i b l e f o r e s t land LAND DEGRADATION LAND WITHDRAWAL Fr a c t i o n of i n a c c e s s i b l e f o r e s t land SILVICULTURE LAND PUT IN FORESTRY NET ANNUAL ALLOWABLE CUT COMMITMENT"!*-ECONOMIC RESOURCE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACCESS ROAD ECONOMIC RESOURCE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF TIMBER SUPPLY VOLUME ACTAULLY CUT ECONOMIC RESOURCE TO THE HARVESTING Figure 10. Timber supply and demand model. r 78 I t was demonstrated i n t h i s chapter t h a t hydro-dam p r o j e c t s generate q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e impacts upon the timber supply. The former, i d e n t i f i e d as the d i r e c t , i n d i r e c t and induced impacts, c o n s i s t s i n a l o s s o f prod-u c t i v i t y (TAAC) on above average growth r a t e f o r e s t s i t e s . The l a t t e r , expressed as the l o c a t i o n impact, i s of two a s p e c t s : f i r s t , a l o s s of an area w i t h o u t s t a n d i n g g e o g r a p h i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s from a f o r e s t r y viewpoint ( f o r h a r v e s t i n g , f o r d e v e l o p i n g access road, and with the best s i l v i c u l t u r a l response); and second, the change i n the f a c i l i t y o f access of the l a n d surrounding the r e s e r v o i r . With these impacts i n mind, one can address the q u e s t i o n of t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e on the demand f o r timber.''" The three c a t e g o r i e s o f f o r e s t a c t i v i t y , r e s u l t i n g from the demand s t i m u l u s , are examined i n t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e . i HARVEST ( A s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n of timber supply has o c c u r r e d i n the r e c e n t decades as a r e s u l t of normal h a r v e s t - r e l a t e d depletion o f e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e s i t e s . However, i n g e n e r a l , the f o r e s t companies have not been s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d w i t h r e s p e c t to suuplying t h e i r m i l l s or the l o g market - even i n the h e a v i l y committed areas o f Revelstoke. Going f u r t h e r u p h i l l when timber supply 1 One may look at Appendix II to perceive the distinction between demand side and supply side of the model as defined in this study. Supply factors are associated with volume versus area relationships (second quadrant of Figure 22-A), whereas demand factors are associ-ated to price versus volume relationships of the f i r s t quadrant. 79 i s l a c k i n g from the v a l l e y - b o t t o m i s the g e n e r a l i z e d p a t t e r n o f h a r v e s t i n g . However, there i s a d i f f e r e n c e between har-v e s t i n g i n the v a l l e y - b o t t o m and on the mountain s i d e s . F i r s t , as l o g g i n g moves t o a h i g h e r a l t i t u d e the timber v o l -ume per h e c t a r e decreases, r e q u i r i n g the h a r v e s t of a g r e a t e r area f o r the same volume. As a r e s u l t , the c o s t of h a r v e s t i n g per c u b i c meter i s l i k e l y t o i n c r e a s e . Second, as the s l o p e s get s t e e p e r i n moving u p h i l l , h a r v e s t i n g techniques must change because o f the i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of f l a t t e r r a i n equip-ment and because of an i n c r e a s e i n environmental s e n s i t i v i t y , such as s o i l i n s t a b i l i t y . Here too, the c o s t o f e x t r a c t i o n becomes more important. T h e r e f o r e , i t i m p l i e s t h a t i f the supply of timber i s t o be maintained because of the demand, then the a l l o c a t i o n of economic resources w i l l have to i n c r e a s e to keep the flow of timber constant, i . e . , which means a h i g h e r c o s t f o r timber h a r v e s t i n g . I t would be of i n t e r e s t t o t e s t t h i s r e a l i t y . Unfor-tunately, i t seems i m p o s s i b l e t o i s o l a t e the s p e c i f i c i n c r e a s e i n the h a r v e s t i n g c o s t due t o f o r e s t land withdrawal to hydro-dams. The a d d i t i o n a l c o s t r e s u l t i n g from hydro-dams to h a r v e s t i n g i s an increment t h a t cannot be d i s a s s o c i a t e d from a m u l t i t u d e o f other f a c t o r s . ACCESSIBILITY The second r e p e r c u s s i o n a r i s i n g when timber supply and demand are i n i n t e r a c t i o n i s r e l a t e d t o the development of access roads. T h i s aspect of the impact of hydro-dams upon the 80 f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y was f e l t t o be the most severe. The l o s s o f an area where access was taken f o r granted (the Columbia R i v e r and p r o v i n c i a l highways) along w i t h g e o g r a p h i c a l advan-tages (e.g. f l a t t e r r a i n , a v a i l a b i l i t y o f g r a v e l p i t s f o r road c o n s t r u c t i o n ) was s i g n i f i c a n t . S i m i l a r l y , the change i n p a t t e r n o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f the remaining area, by the d i s -r u p t i o n o f p r i n c i p a l roads, the p h y s i c a l o b s t r u c t i o n o f the dam, •-. • and the change from a r i v e r t o a " l a k e " system has a l s o important consequences (some of which are b e n e f i c i a l ) . As a r e s u l t , a s i g n i f i c a n t l e v e l o f economic resource has t o be a l l o c a t e d t o r e - e s t a b l i s h the access road network, and t o develop a s u i t a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o . m a i n t a i n the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y i n the area (such as dump s i t e s and dewatering f a c i l i t i e s ) . T h i s i s an important aspect which needs f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I t i s , ' t h e r e f o r e , the o b j e c t o f the next chapter o f t h i s study. ENHANCEMENT OF THE TIMBER SUPPLY The t h i r d aspect of the i n t e r a c t i o n o f timber supply and demand i s to i n c r e a s e the output o f timber p r o d u c t i o n by i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management and a c q u i s i t i o n o f land a l l o -c ated t o non-timber use. F o r e s t l a n d r e t r i e v a l i s not addressed because o f i t s n e g l i g i b l e s i g n i f i c a n c e at the presen t time. S i l v i c u l t u r e , however, as a means t o i n c r e a s e the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the l a n d base i s of Importance. The B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e presented a b r i e f at the Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , s t a t i n g t h a t an avenue of m i t i g a t i o n c o u l d be t o i n c r e a s e "the 81 p r o d u c t i v i t y of the remaining f o r e s t land base through an i n t e n s i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e program" (BCFS, 1976). To be a p p l i e d e f f e c t i v e l y , an i n t e n s i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e program has t o be c a r r i e d on the b e s t growing s i t e s , where the topography i s not too rugged and e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e . Because the l a n d f l o o d e d by hydro-dams possesses g e n e r a l l y these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (exception made t o Seven M i l e Dam) i t may be suggested t h a t a s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p p o r t u n i t y t o improve the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the ,land i s foregone to some of the b e s t s i t e s o f the r e g i o n . Walters (19 80) showed t h a t the extent o f t h i s r e p e r -c u s s i o n may be s i g n i f i c a n t . In F i g u r e 11, s i x l e v e l s of s i l v i c u l t u r e p r a c t i c e are c o n s i d e r e d , along with the percentage of improvement, wi t h r e s p e c t to the mean annual increment, from l e v e l one on medium s i t e s . Figure 11. Productivity improvement from silviculture, (from Walters, 1980) - Percent Improvement from L e v e l One on L e v e l s o f S i l v i c u l t u r e Medium S i t e s t  L e v e l 1 Involves no s i l v i c u l t u r e but stands r e c e i v e some p r o t e c t i o n from f i r e , and s l a s h may be burned to reduce hazard. 0% . L e v e l 2 Gaps i n n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n are .. f i l l e d by p l a n t i n g (1,000 trees/ha) and s t o c k i n g i s g e n e r a l l y good. 15% Leve1 3 P l a n t i n g p r o v i d e s f o r f u l l s t o c k i n g (2,500 trees/ha) and s e e d l i n g s are weeded when necessary. 30% L e v e l 4 T h i s l e v e l adds f e r t i l i z a t i o n t o L e v e l 3. 59% L e v e l 5 T h i s adds pre-commercial and comer-c i a l t h i n n i n g t o the p r a c t i c e s o f L e v e l 4. 91% L e v e l 6 T h i s i s the h i g h e s t l e v e l of management, and i t i n c l u d e s gains from g e n e t i c improvements. 138% 82 The study area taken by Walters • i s the P r i n c e George Region and the s i l v i c u l t u r a l . c o s t s f o r L e v e l one were equal to $.43 per c u b i c meter and $2.00 per c u b i c meter f o r L e v e l 5. The export value o f a-, c u b i c meter of wood was equal t o $49.64 (without the s i l v i c u l t u r a l c o s t s ) . T h e r e f o r e , the weighed . i n c r e a s e o f the growth r a t e ( a l l o w i n g f o r the a d d i t i o n a l c o s t o f s i l v i c u l t u r e ) from l e v e l one t o l e v e l f i v e i s 84%. T h i s value may be d i f f e r e n t f o r the Kootenays; the improvement, however, w i l l remain s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i gh. T h i s o p p o r t u n i t y l o s s may be of importance i f the demand f o r timber continues to i n c r e a s e , and f a c i n g a d i m i n i s h i n g resource. T h i s i s f u r t h e r j u s t i f i e d i f i n t e n s i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e i s t o be c u r t a i l e d as a r e s u l t of the l o s s o f the best growing s i t e s . In c o n c l u s i o n , the d i r e c t impact o f the f i v e hydro-dams co n s i d e r e d i n t h i s study account f o r 38,481 ha, r e p r e s e n t i n g 3 an annual cut of 142,204 m (without allowance f o r l o s s e s ) . I n c l u s i o n o f oth e r hydro-dams of the r e g i o n (such as Libby Dam wit h 3,633 ha o f f o r e s t l a n d withdrawn), t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e r i g h t s - o f - w a y , and allowance f o r i n d i r e c t and induced 3 impacts may b r i n g the t o t a l t o 50,000 ha, or 180,000 m annually, c o n s t i t u t i n g approximately 4 per c e n t o f the 1977 cut l e v e l on Crown-managed f o r e s t l a n d i n the r e g i o n . In terms o f f o r e s t s i t e q u a l i t y , good and medium s i t e s are i n a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n i n Revelstoke Dam f l o o d i n g area (97.6%) than the r e g i o n a l average (65%). However, the area surrounding the r e s e r v o i r seems to have good p o t e n t i a l f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management, wit h 88.3% of good and medium 83 s i t e s . Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r area does not show a s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r p o s i t i o n than the r e g i o n a l average. Data f o r other dams were u n a v a i l a b l e . From the above f i n d i n g s i t cannot be submitted t h a t the impact o f hydro-dams on timber supply i s s i g n i f i c a n t on the r e g i o n a l l e v e l ; e s p e c i a l l y i n the l i g h t o f Walter's (1980) study on p o t e n t i a l improvements from s i l v i c u l t u r e . However, the s i t u a t i o n may d i f f e r at the l o c a l l e v e l . For t h i s reason, implementing i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t r y i n areas surrounding r e s e r -v o i r s appear to be a p o s s i b l e way t o r e - e s t a b l i s h p r e v i o u s l e v e l s of cut i n order to m i t i g a t e the impact. Taking Revelstoke area as an example, i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t r y i n c l u d i n g p l a n t i n g , f e r t i l i z i n g and t h i n n i n g (Level 5) on 8,565. ha o f medium s i t e s s urrounding the r e s e r v o i r may b r i n g back the o r i g i n a l l e v e l of annual c u t . Expenditure on t h i s o p e r a t i o n - approximately $108,000 a n n u a l l y - may be p a i d from b e n e f i t s r e s u l t i n g from the Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t s as a com-pe n s a t i o n to f o r e s t r y . Such a recommendation i s f u r t h e r j u s t i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t a d d i t i o n a l stumpage revenue would c e r t a i n l y outweigh s i l v i c u l t u r e c o s t s . However, t h i s may a l s o suggest t h a t i f the dam had not been b u i l t , s i l v i l c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s c o u l d have greatly., i n c r e a s e d f o r e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y i n the area. In the event i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management i s undertaken, i t w i l l probably occur i n the v i c i n i t y of the r e s e r v o i r ' s p e rimeter - where other lan d uses would l i k e l y take p l a c e , such as r e c r e a t i o n and f i s h and w i l d l i f e p r o t e c t i o n areas. 84 I t i s t h e r e f o r e suggested t h a t i n t e g r a t e d resource management p l a n be i n i t i a t e d c . t o develop r e s o u r c e s o f the area i n harmony and i n the most d e s i r a b l e manner. T h i s concern was r a i s e d i n the case of Mica Dam (Farquharson, 1974), however, was l a c k i n g f o r the ot h e r dams. 85 CHAPTER I I I ACCESS AND TRANSPORTATION Along w i t h timber supply, f a c t o r s of a c c e s s i b i l i t y and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n are c r i t i c a l i n the development of f o r e s t r y operations.. Distance t o p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s by waterway or road, and the network of access roads are elements c o n s t i t u t i n g an important share of the o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f timber e x t r a c t i o n / T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e f o r the mountainous Kootenays. L o c a t i o n o f the major p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s o f the r e g i o n may be i n d i c a t i v e o f the importance o f these t r a n s f e r c o s t s . Canadian C e l l u l o s e (Cancel) i n t e g r a t e d p u l p m i l l and saw-m i l l , l o c a t e d i n C a s t l e g a r , b e n e f i t s from the presence of the Columbia R i v e r which makes the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f timber h a r v e s t e d 350 k i l o m e t e r s (km) upstream from the p l a n t f e a s i b l e . Kootenay F o r e s t Products o p e r a t i o n s are a l s o f a c i l i t a t e d by Kootenay Lake, which permits c h e a l l o g towing from Lardeau to Nelson's p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t . In the Kootenay r e g i o n , waterways play an important r o l e i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f l o g s . R i v e r d r i v e and logtow Average hauling distance is 100 km in B.C. 86 by boat on the Columbia R i v e r account f o r as much as 1,100,000 c u b i c meters o f Cancel p u l p m i l l l o g supply (Cancel, 1975). P r o v i n c i a l highways are a l s o e x t e n s i v e l y used. On i t s b u s i e s t days, 100 to 120 t r u c k loads o f approximately 30 m3 pass by Revelstoke on Highway #23 (B.C. Hydro, 1980). F i n a l l y , the e x t e n s i v e network o f f o r e s t access roads, d e v e l -oped by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the f o r e s t companies, permits s u s t a i n e d h a r v e s t o f timber. F l o o d i n g o f 500 km of the Columbia R i v e r and p a r t o f i t s t r i b u t a r i e s has r e s u l t e d i n d i s r u p t i o n s o f access roads and m o d i f i c a t i o n s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s . R i v e r d r i v e between Mica Creek arid Revelstoke i s no longer p o s s i b l e . The o b s t r u c t i o n c r e a t e d by the presence o f the Duncan Dam c u r t a i l s water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f logs between Duncan Lake and Kootenay Lake. And the f l o o d i n g o f the B i g Bend Highway prevents the use of a h a u l i n g road on the e a s t s i d e o f Kinbasket Lake (Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r ) . Access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n are important components i n the c a l c u l a t i o n o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . T h e r e f o r e , the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f access d i s r u p t i o n and m o d i f i c a t i o n s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s ought t o be r a i s e d i n the f o r e s t r y impact assessment. Among the f i v e dams examined, f o r e s t a c c e s s i b i l i t y impact i s c e r t a i n l y l e s s e r f o r the case o f the Seven M i l e Dam. I t s l o c a t i o n downstream o f the Columbia on the Pend O r e i l l e R i v e r near the U.S. border, the r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l s i z e o f the r e s e r v o i r , and minor supply o f timber i n the area may e x p l a i n the n e g l i g i b l e impacts. The oth e r dams are l o c a t e d i n areas h e a v i l y committed 87 t o f o r e s t r y , r e s u l t i n g i n s i g n i f i c a n t impacts from f l o o d i n g . In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s , the impacts of Duncan and Hugh Keenleyside dams on access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n are b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d . Mica and Revelstoke dams are examined more exten-s i v e l y t o p e r c e i v e the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between timber supply and access d i s r u p t i o n . DUNCAN DAM P r i o r t o the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the dam, l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s of Kootenay F o r e s t Products (KFP) - the major op e r a t o r i n the Duncan V a l l e y - was l i m i t e d from December to A p r i l due to extreme s p r i n g and e a r l y summer f l o o d i n g . High water i n l a t e May brought the r i v e r d r i v e which moved the l o g s t o the head of,Duncan Lake. Logs were then towed on the Kootenay Lake to Nelson. With the dam, the means of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n was no longer f e a s i b l e . P receding the c o n s t r u c t i o n , KFP i d e n t i f i e d what i t f e l t the e f f e c t s o f Duncan Dam would be on access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n : "Advantages. 1. Access: Provide an extended waterway f o r an e s t imated 15 t o 20 m i l e s (24 to 32 km) n o r t h o f Duncan Lake. Completion o f a l o g t r a n s p o r t route around the dam, e i t h e r by means of a s p i l l w a y or flume, w i l l extend the Kootenay Lake waterway an estimated 32 m i l e s (51 km) ... A n t i c i p a t e t h a t an access road w i l l be c o n s t r u c t e d i n t o the r e s e r v o i r area o f the Duncan R i v e r , a l l o w i n g f o r t r a n s p o r t f o r men and equipment i n t o our f u t u r e o p e r a t i o n s i n the Duncan R i v e r Drainage. 88 2. O f f highway h a u l s : I t i s contemplated t h a t we w i l l be able t o use o f f highway t r u c k s i n many areas adjacent t o the Duncan R e s e r v o i r . T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e a f u r t h e r s a v i n g i n the t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n o f l o g s . . . . Disadvantages... 2. P o s s i b l e l o s s o f water t r a n s p o r t : Long range p l a n n i n g o f t h i s company i n v o l v e s water t r a n s -p o r t of l o g s . T h i s water course would be i n t e r r u p t e d i f the Power Commission was ad-verse t o the c o n s t r u c t i o n of a s p i l l w a y or flume f o r the t r a n s p o r t o f logs around the dam." (KFP, 1961) The Water L i c e n c e , document<authorizing the c o n s t r u c t i o n and o p e r a t i o n o f the dam, was i s s u e d on the c o n d i t i o n , among ot h e r s , t h a t : "The l i c e n s e e s h a l l p r o v i d e such f a c i l i t i e s over any s t r u c t u r e f o r the h a n d l i n g o f f o r e s t products and ge n e r a l water t r a n s -p o r t as may be d i r e c t e d by the Co m p t r o l l e r (of Water R i g h t s ) . " (Water Resources S e r v i c e , 1962) N e g o t i a t i o n s between B.C. Hydro (B.C. Power Commission u n t i l 1962) and KFP l a s t e d u n t i l the completion o f the dam i n 196 7. KFP d i d not succeed i n c o n v i n c i n g the Water Comp-t r o l l e r and B.C. Hydro t o c o n s t r u c t a s p i l l w a y or flume f o r the t r a n s p o r t o f log s around the dam. However, as s p e c i f i e d i n the Water L i c e n c e , KFP was e n t i t l e d t o some compensation. The company claimed a volume of timber whose value would be e q u i v a l e n t t o : Loss o f p r o f i t s u s t a i n e d 1962-1966 o p e r a t i o n s because of r e - h a u l by t r u c k from Howser, as opposed to s t r a i g h t water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n d i r e c t l y t o Kootenay Lake, E x t r a c o s t s due to e a r l y f l o o d i n g , Opportunity c o s t s o f t r u c k h a u l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as opposed t o s t r a i g h t water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . 89 KFP presented the f o l l o w i n g f i g u r e s to j u s t i f y t h e i r c l a i m s : T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t o f s t r a i g h t ^ water t r a n s p o r t t o Kootenay Lake: ' $0.93/m T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t of r e - h a u l 2 system employed: $2.09/m T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t by "Off h i g h -way l o a d " : $1.80/nT (B.C. Hydro, 1967) O pportunity c o s t s , l o s s o f p r o f i t s and the e x t r a c o s t s due to e a r l y f l o o d i n g were es t i m a t e d t o r e p r e s e n t a volume of 178,395 m3, or $314,987 i n 1967 d o l l a r s . The agreement achieved between B.C. Hydro and KFP r e s u l t e d i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of an access road on the e a s t s i d e o f Duncan Lake and the use o f the dam t o c r o s s the l a k e . Logs are dumped at Lardeau, the head o f Kootenay Lake and towed t o Nelson. B.C. Hydro p a i d f o r and s u p e r v i s e d the con-s t r u c t i o n o f the road. However, the road d i d not meet KFP standards, and had to be upgraded, r e s u l t i n g i n a supplementary expense o f $350,000 p a i d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e (Morrison, 1980). Furthermore, a f t e r 196 7 a b r i d g e had been put up to a v o i d c r o s s i n g the Duncan R i v e r on the s t r u c t u r e o f the dam, and the c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t has been def r a y e d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e . In terms o f permanent impact, the e a s t s i d e road pro-v i d e s the main access to the Duncan V a l l e y , which supports 3 . ' an annual cut o f approximately 175,000 m (Morrison, 1980). 3 The $0.87/m d i f f e r e n c e i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t between "Off highway loads" and s t r a i g h t water t r a n s p o r t t o Kootenay Lake 90 may be attributable t o the Duncan Dam. I t may t h e r e f o r e con-s t i t u t e an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i n terms of foregone stumpage revenue (approximately $150,000 a n n u a l l y ) , as a r e s u l t of the p r o j e c t . HUGH KEENLEYSIDE DAM C e l g a r (now Canadian C e l l u l o s e ) p u l p m i l l and sawmill became o p e r a t i o n a l i n 1961 - the year the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y was signed - 2 k i l o m e t e r s downstream o f the l o c a t i o n of Hugh Keenleyside Dam, whose c o n s t r u c t i o n began i n 1964 under the terms of the T r e a t y . Canadian C e l l u l o s e (Cancel) was, and s t i l l i s , the l a r g e s t f o r e s t products complex i n the p r o v i n c e l o c a t e d o f f t i d e - w a t e r . I t was r e c o g n i z e d t h a t Cancel was p l a y i n g a major r o l e i n the economic development of the West Kootenays. A l s o , h o l d i n g a l i c e n c e granted t o r a t i o n a l i z e the u t i l i z a t i o n of decadent western hemlock and western red cedar stands and wood r e s i d u a l s from other sawmills, Cancel was a v i t a l element i n f o r e s t management. Moreover, the company's annual a l l o w a b l e cut 3 was i n the order o f 850,000 m i n 1961 and i t bought a d d i t i o n a l q u a n t i t i e s of wood c h i p s and l o g s from independent sawmills and l o g g i n g o p e r a t o r s . For a l l these reasons, the impacts of the dam on timber u t i l i z a t i o n had to be addressed. The recovery o f decadent stands f o r pulp i s f e a s i b l e o n l y i f e f f e c t i v e and low c o s t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and l o g storage systems are a v a i l a b l e . The Columbia R i v e r p r o v i d e d t h i s f o r Cancel. Log bundles were f l o a t e d from the Goldstream. R i v e r area, 90 k i l o m e t e r s n o r t h o f Revelstoke, down the r i v e r t o Revelstoke o r t o Galena Bay, at the nor t h e r n t i p o f the Upper Arrow Lake. Then the budles were towed t o the m i l l or s t o r e d on the Arrow Lakes. Major t r u c k hauls were necessary o n l y between Revelstoke and Galena Bay, and between Nakusp and Fauquier when the water l e v e l was too low. Dump s i t e s s u r -rounded the Columbia R i v e r v a l l e y t o minimize l o g h a u l i n g between the s i t e o f h a r v e s t and the r i v e r . F l o o d i n g between C a s t l e g a r and Revelstoke r e s u l t e d i n p a r t i a l d i s r u p t i o n o f the access roads. F l u c t u a t i o n s i n water l e v e l i n the r e s e r v o i r - up to 23 meters - r e q u i r e d a modif-i c a t i o n o f the dump i n s t a l l a t i o n s . During the c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d o f 1964-1968, a lo a d i n g - o u t t r a n s f e r u n i t was necessary t o maintain the wood supply t o the m i l l . And f i n a l l y , a permanent l o g t r a n s f e r system had t o be designed t o permit logs t o c r o s s the dam. In 1962, when c o s t s o f l o g h a n d l i n g methods were es t i m a t e d , 3 the p r o d u c t i o n volume was 1,100,000 m a n n u a l l y , or 131 bundles d a i l y , 250 days a year. Although an expensive a l t e r n a t i v e , i t was decided t o b u i l d a lock i n the s t r u c t u r e o f the dam to handle the l o g s . The t o t a l c o s t o f such a f a c i l i t y was estimated a t approximately 15 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s or 1.4 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s as the t o t a l annual c o s t i n 1962 d o l l a r s ( i n t e r e s t r a t e u n a v a i l a b l e ) (C.B.A. E n g i n e e r i n g L t d . , 1962). T h i s means $1.26 f o r each c u b i c meter produced. T h i s values compares 3 w i t h $.04/m f o r the s t r a i g h t w a t e r - t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . A t h i r t y * 92 f o l d d i f f e r e n c e was c e r t a i n l y to be c o n s i d e r e d as a major hike i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . A l s o a l o a d i n g - o u t c r a n e - t r u c k t r a n s f e r u n i t was r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e f o r l o g h a n d l i n g d u r i n g the dam c o n s t r u c t i o n and to remain as a permanent stand-by u n i t . The c a p i t a l c o s t df t h i s f a c i l i t y was e s timated at $1,811,000 (C.B.A. E n g i n e e r i n g L t d . , 1962). A c a p i t a l recovery over a p e r i o d o f 2 0 years at an i n t e r e s t r a t e of 5 percent means an annual c o s t o f $145,320 i n 1962 d o l l a r s or $0.13 f o r each c u b i c meter produced. However, as a r e q u i r e -ment of the Water L i c e n c e , these c o s t s (the l o c k and the l o a d i n g - o u t f a c i l i t y ) were defrayed by B.C. Hydro. A l s o , d i s r u p t e d access roads were r e l o c a t e d above the r e s e r v o i r and e x i s t i n g roads upgraded by B.C. Hydro. T h e r e f o r e , i t may be reasonable to suggest t h a t access roads and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s were improved, r e s u l t i n g from the s i g n i f i c a n t expenditure by B.C. Hydro t o m i t i g a t e the dam impacts. In a d d i t i o n to improvments of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s and access roads, a f u l l r e s e r v o i r allows l o g tows and storage on the whole l e n g t h of the r e s e r v o i r , between Revelstoke and C a s t l e g a r . However, as the r e s e r v o i r l e v e l may f l u c t u a t e up to 2 3 meters, Cancel faces problems i n the o p e r a t i o n o f l o g dumps i n years when s n o w f a l l i s minimal. N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s the o p i n i o n o f the Campany t h a t , on the whole, a b e n e f i t accrued from the dam's c o n s t r u c t i o n ( Thorp, 1980). 93 MICA DAM TIMBER SUPPLY IN THE GOLDEN TSA The Golden Timber Supply Area (TSA) i s a u n i t o f f o r e s t management s u p p l y i n g timber t o p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s l o c a t e d i n Golden and Donald S t a t i o n . The area s t r e t c h e s from the head of Kootenay R i v e r , i n the V e r m i l l i o n Range, t o the l o c a t i o n of Mica Dam. Updated f o r e s t i n v e n t o r y i n d i c a t e s t h a t timber 3 supply f o r the p e r i o d 1969-1989 accounts f o r 15,523,915 m (BCFS, 19 80b). Annual r e p o r t s o f the F o r e s t S e r v i c e show t h a t 6,684,220 m3 o f timber were cut over the 1969-1979 p e r i o d . The volume remaining f o r the next ten years i s t h e r e -f o r e 8,839,695 m3. C a l c u l a t i o n o f the volume prese n t i n the Mica Dam r e s -e r v o i r ( i . e . Kinbasket Lake) area, i n c l u d i n g Beaver R i v e r to Mica Dam on the west s i d e and Bush R i v e r to Wood R i v e r on the 3 e a s t s i d e (see Map 4), adds up t o 6,902,944 m , or 78 p e r c e n t of the volume to be cut over the next ten years. As the p a t t e r n of c u t t i n g has been c o n c e n t r a t e d i n the southern h a l f of the TSA i n the f i r s t ten years of the p l a n n i n g p e r i o d , i t may be suggested t h a t , i n the next ten years t o come, timber w i l l have t o be s u p p l i e d from the Kinbasket Lake area. In f a c t , c u t t i n g permits i s s u e d to Evans Products, the major quota h o l d e r of the TSA, i n d i c a t e t h a t h a r v e s t i n g was l i m i t e d t o the southern p o r t i o n o f the TSA between 196 9 and <• 1974 (Hanson, 1975). For the 1975-1979 p e r i o d , the l o c a t i o n o f f o r e s t access roads r e v e a l h a r v e s t i n g i n the B l a b e r r y V a l l e y , \ 91 • "N ... / LEGEND Golden TSA Boundary Operability Line Outline of Reservoir Access Road Proposed Dump Site Proposed Dewatering F a c i l i t i e s \ MAP 4 MICA RESERVOIR ACCESS AND TRANSPORTATION Source: BCFS (1980^, Hanson (1975)J Farquharson (1974) / 95 the south s i d e o f Bush R i v e r V a l l e y , and between Beaver R i v e r and Smith Creek. Hanson (19 75) r e p o r t e d t h a t : " E a r l y i n 1974 the F o r e s t S e r v i c e s t a t e d t h a t the panhandle (southern h a l f o f the TSA) was a l r e a d y over-committed and no f u t u r e l o g g i n g would be perm i t t e d . Evans w i l l have completed a l l p r e s e n t l y approved l o g g i n g i n the panhandle by the end o f 19 75 which means f u t u r e wood supply w i l l have t o come from the northern p o r t i o n o f the Kinbasket P.S.Y.U. (Golden TSA)." (Hanson, 1975. p. 10) The extremely rugged topography o f the n o r t h e r n p a r t o f the TSA p r e c l u d e d h a r v e s t i n g b e f o r e 1968. Access roads were developed more e a s i l y i n the southern p o r t i o n , as the r a t i o of p r o d u c t i v e l a n d t o t o t a l area i n d i c a t e s : .43/1 f o r the southern p o r t i o n , compared t o .2 8/1 f o r the n o r t h e r n p o r t i o n of the TSA. Since the f l o o d i n g o f 110 k i l o m e t e r s o f v a l l e y bottom, i n 1974, a c c e s s i b i l i t y problems have worsened. ACCESSIBILITY BEFORE FLOODING P r i o r t o 1974, the p r i n c i p a l access t o the northern p o r t i o n of the Golden TSA was the B i g Bend Highway (see Map 4). I t has been i n use s i n c e 1940 f o r summer l o g g i n g ; avalanche and s l i d e areas n o r t h o f Bush R i v e r and n o r t h o f Kinbasket Lake r e s t r i c t e d w i n t e r access. F o l l o w i n g the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the Trans-Canada Highway Between Golden and Revelstoke, i n 1962, a p r i n c i p a l access road was developed on the west s i d e o f the Columbia R i v e r , from Beaver R i v e r t o Gold R i v e r . The upgrading o f the B i g Bend Highway between Revelstoke and the l o c a t i o n o f the Mica Dam, i n 196 7, r e s u l t e d i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n 96 of the Redrock Basin f o r e s t road to develop w i n t e r supply i n the north-west p o r t i o n o f the TSA. I t was, however, more economical t o haul logs harvested i n the Redrock Basin t o Revelstoke r a t h e r than to Golden."'" In 1974, with the completion o f the Mica Dam, an import-ant p o r t i o n o f the B i g Bend Highway was inundated. E i g h t y -f i v e k i l o m e t e r s of the highway, between Bush R i v e r and Mica Dam were d i s r u p t e d . Furthermore, s e c t i o n of the West Columbia Road (between Beaver R i v e r and Gold River) were cut o f f by the r i s i n g water l e v e l . P a r t s of the Redrock Basin f o r e s t road were a l s o d i s r u p t e d , n e g a t i n g i t s use. In c o n t r a s t with the Duncan and Hugh Keenleyside dams, there were no p r o v i s i o n s i n the Mica Dam Water Lic e n c e t o compensate o r p r o v i d e m i t i g a t i o n measures f o r the l o s s of f o r e s t access and t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s (Water Resources S e r v i c e s , 1962a). ACCESSIBILITY AFTER FLOODING Access road and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s are s e n s i t i v e t o v a r i a b l e s such as timber volume i n a given area, d i s t a n c e to a p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t , physiography, and equipment used. For the purpose of a n a l y s i s , Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r area has been d i v i d e d i n t o 12 timber supply compartments: s i x on the west s i d e o f Kinbasket Lake, namely Beaver R i v e r t o Gold R i v e r , Gold R i v e r drainage, Gold R i v e r to Smith Creek, Smith Creek For this reason Redrock Basin Forest was reverted to Revelstoke TSA. 97 t o Windy Creek, Windy Creek Drainage, and Northwest of Kinbasket Lake, and s i x compartments on the east s i d e , c o n s t i t u t e d by Wood R i v e r drainage, Cummins R i v e r , Kinbasket R i v e r and Tsar Creek, S u l l i v a n R i v e r drainage, S i l l i v a n R i v e r t o Bush R i v e r , and Bush R i v e r (see Map 4). The volume of timber a v a i l a b l e f o r h a r v e s t d u r i n g the 1969-1989 p l a n n i n g p e r i o d has been d e r i v e d f o r each compartment from updated i n v e n t o r y data (BCFS, 1980b). The 1980 i n v e n t o r y data o r i g i n a t e s from the 196 8 u n i t survey, from which 90 percent o f the Environment P r o t e c t i o n Areas (EPA) has been removed (accounting f o r e c o l o -g i c a l s e n s i t i v i t y o f s o i l s , w i l d l i f e , and water systems), and 90 percent o f the areas w i t h a c c e s s i b i l i t y c o n s t r a i n t s and e c o l o g i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e natures were a l s o removed from t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n , along with low c a p a b i l i t y f o r e s t s i t e s . To assess the impact o f Mica Dam on access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , the f o l l o w i n g steps were undertaken f o r each compartment: P r i o r t o f l o o d i n g : - d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f a c c e s s i b l e and i n a c c e s s i b l e areas, - e v a l u a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s ( i . e . t r u c k hauling) o f a c c e s s i b l e volume, and c o s t s t o develop access f o r the remaining volume, Post f l o o d i n g : - d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y , - e v a l u a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s t o develop the t o t a l supply o f timber. I t should be noted t h a t access (or t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) i s taken i n the sense o f p r i n c i p a l access (or t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) ; i . e . , c o s t s t o move logs along the perimeter o f the r e s e r v o i r . For example, i n the case o f a r i v e r drainage compartment, c o s t s are c a l c u l a t e d from the p o i n t o f dis c h a r g e o f the r i v e r . A l s o , 98 the v a r i o u s values presented are adapted from Evans Products c o s t experience i n 1975 d o l l a r s , as r e p o r t e d by Hanson (1975). In order to apprehend the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between timber supply and a c c e s s i b i l i t y , c o s t s are given i n d o l l a r s per c u b i c meter of wood e x t r a c t e d . West Side o f Kinbasket Lake Table 3 shows t h a t p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g approximately 62 percent of the timber supply l o c a t e d on the west s i d e was a c c e s s i b l e . The West Columbia Road was developed to Smith Creek and the Redrock Basin f o r e s t road made access p o s s i b l e to a p o r t i o n of the northwest corner of the area. Hauling 3 c o s t s are c a l c u l a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o a r a t e o f $0.053/m /km (Hanson, 1975), c o v e r i n g the d i s t a n c e between compartments and the Beaver R i v e r . The a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s of h a u l i n g l o g s from Beaver R i v e r to Donald S t a t i o n (25 km) or Golden (50 km) are not c o n s i d e r e d ( i t may account f o r an a d d i t i o n a l $1.00 3 t o $2.00/m ). H a u l i n g c o s t s from the Redrock Basin f o r e s t do not e n t e r i n the t o t a l c o s t c a l c u l a t i o n because i t i s l e s s expensive t o haul l o g s to Revelstoke than t o Golden. Cost of d e v e l o p i n g the remaining volume i s based on the assessment o f the West Columbia Road by T.M. Thompson and A s s o c i a t e s L t d . , a c o n s u l t i n g f i r m h i r e d by Evans Products L t d . (Hanson, 1975). Cost o f c o n s t r u c t i n g the road was estimated at $6 8,750/km. The c o s t o f d e v e l o p i n g the West Columbia Road beyond Windy Creek drainage area seems p r o h i b i t i v e with r e s p e c t t o the supply of timber t h a t may be developed. 99 F o l l o w i n g the f l o o d i n g , p a r t o f the West Columbia Road was d i s r u p t e d . The a d d i t i o n a l c o s t o f r e l o c a t i n g the road i n the Gold R i v e r area may c o s t approximately $440,000. The t o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t o f the West Columbia Road up to Smith Creek, adds up t o approximately f o u r m i l l i o n d o l l a r s (Brock>. 1980). A p o r t i o n o f the West Columbia Road may be a t t r i b u t e d t o the impact o f the f l o o d i n g . Indeed, road r e l o c a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from d i s r u p t i o n , extended d i s t a n c e around the Gold R i v e r d i s c h a r g e area (approximately 6.5 km), and the i n c r e a s e d c o s t o f road c o n s t r u c t i o n due to s t e e p e r slopes and to f l o o d i n g of the best g r a v e l p i t s i t e s f o r road con-s t r u c t i o n are examples o f such impacts. A major h a u l i n g road i s uneconomical n o r t h o f Windy Creek. As a r e s u l t , a p o r t i o n o f the compartment has been r e l o c a t e d t o the Revelstoke TSA. The remaining timber supply l o c a t e d i n t h i s area may be developed by water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . A p r o p o s a l o f the F o r e s t S e r v i c e t o l o c a t e a dump s i t e near T i d e n t Creek (see Map 4) may p r o v i d e f o r an e c o n o m i c a l l y 3 f e a s i b l e o p e r a t i o n at approximately $3.50/m . East Side of Kinbasket Lake The B i g Bend Highway p r o v i d e d the access on the e a s t s i d e of the Columbia R i v e r . H a u l i n g c o s t s are c o n s i d e r e d from the source of supply on the highway to the south s i d e o f Bush R i v e r (25 km o f Donald S t a t i o n ) . F o l l o w i n g the f l o o d i n g , two a l t e r n a t i v e s were c o n s i d e r e d to r e - e s t a b l i s h access. 100 COST OF DEVEL-OPING REMAINING VOLUME ACCESSIBILITY AFTER FLOODING COST OF DEVEL-OPING REMAINING VOLUME HAULING COST* (S/m3) ACCESSIBILITY BEFORE FLOODING TIMBER SUPPLY OVER 20 YEARS (m3) o o o o o o o o o o E-t M w a H « to rt P< EH S 8 WES ai e o I J n ai 5 > §*£ rt O cn U 0 EH JJ UH o -a (U C JJ o n) •H CJ JJ O U rH O 0) Cu M o o o ro co in 1 01 tl ai 0 o ~ 0 c o O ro o 0 rH o o E m o CO o - a 0 o tn ro c •H o CN to 3 CN ro • 01 co - rH 01 •0 • rH </> to IS rH v> ^ rH 0 vy o u .73/m VO TO' in 10 o cn rH CN o rH CN CN Cl o o CN e CO cn o o in VO ro m o Ol vo Ol CO rH in in CO CO Cn in CN r -CO CN rH CM in CO CO CN d U •0 • CJ • rH u 0 u >i 0) o XI tn JJ CD c co o 0 CJ> JJ •H C JJ co -H s -H 01 c s CO u -H cn o A o CO JJ a c > u 0 •H •H a 4J * • a, u n u u IH u « « 0 Xi >l > •0 JJ •0 « CO rH rH -H c s cu 0 Q s •H « o £5 cn s 2 r -o CO EH e B « < O rH CO in rH rH PJ m n> cn cn cn cn r--cn rt IN CN CN CN CM CM CM s rt U> to-EH <: H co SI J3 a Q CO rH cn CM cn 00 o Q g cn in o in CO ID i -O r» iO in «* CO CM in V). « dP # O o o o o O o o CO rH CO CM CO ro O CN CO ro CM CN rH O o o o o o o 6 to CO lO CO in in m CM CO o O r - o ^ CN o in cn rH VO cn <s> t> in CO CO r-CO o CO CO in •H H H cr! U 11 a cn .C cn H rO 01 ro ro C 3 01 c 01 •H CO cn •H EH ro •s a rO rH o •H c JJ Q JJ 01 •H a CO • • H • « a OS JJ 0) C c 01 J4 rd CO « c 01 > > a. •H 8 -H •H "S £ Ja rH H JC 0 c rH rH 01 0 9 •H 3 3 3 s u Ui cn cn cn m co 101 The r e l o c a t i o n of the B i g Bend Highway above the f l o o d l i n e was contemplated as the f i r s t o p t i o n . Table 3 shows t h a t , 3 on the average, $5.70/m would be necessary f o r l o g t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n . T h i s value may be broken down i n t o three components: 3 c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s a c c o u n t i n g f o r $0.78/m , maintenance c o s t 3 3 adding up t o $0.62/m , and h a u l i n g c o s t adding up to $4.30/m . The East Columbia Road h a u l i n g c o s t i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r than the B i g Bend highway experience because the f l o o d i n g o f the mouths o f Cummins, Kinbasket, S u l l i v a n and Bush R i v e r s would r e s u l t i n a d d i t i o n a l h a u l i n g d i s t a n c e . The a l t e r n a t i v e o f u s i n g f e r r i e s i n s t e a d o f b u i l d i n g a road around the r i v e r mouths was suggested by Hanson (1975), but would not r e s u l t i n s i g n i f i c a n t s a v i n g s . As a consequence o f the expen-s i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t , the East Columbia Road a l t e r n a t i v e was r e j e c t e d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , although favoured by Evans Products L t d . The second a l t e r n a t i v e i s water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n on K i n -basket Lake. Map 4 shows the p r e l i m i n a r y l o c a t i o n o f f i v e dump s i t e s on the e a s t s i d e o f the r e s e r v o i r . Bundles of l o g s are towed by a tugboat t o a dewatering f a c i l i t y . Three de-watering sites'.were s e l e c t e d , t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y with a r e s e r v o i r l e v e l which may f l u c t u a t e t o a maximum o f 47 meters ( f u l l p o o l e l e v a t i o n i s 754.6 meters above sea l e v e l ) . Redgrave Harbour S i t e (11 km upstream o f Beaver R i v e r ) : operable when water e l e v a t i o n s are between 741 and 75 4.6 meters. Bush Harbour S i t e : operable when water e l e v a t i o n s are between 72 8 and 744 meters. 102 Smith Creek S i t e : operable when water e l e v a t i o n s are between 707 and 732 meters. (Hanson, 1975) The Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r f o r e c a s t f o r storage e l e v a t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t maximum p o o l e l e v a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o occur i n August-September, and low p o o l e l e v a t i o n i n April-May (Farquhar-son, 1974). The normal drawdown of the r e s e r v o i r i s 31.5 meters, and the r e s e r v o i r w i l l l i k e l y freeze-up between January and m i d - A p r i l making i t u n s u i t a b l e f o r water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , under normal c o n d i t i o n s the Bush R i v e r S i t e would be used i n May and June, and Redgrave Harbour S i t e from J u l y to the end of December. The Smith Creek S i t e may be s u i t a b l e f o r years w i t h minimal s n o w f a l l s . 3 Water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s i n c l u d e $0.74/m f o r dewatering f a c i l i t y , $0.29 t o $0.79 f o r dump c o s t and o p e r a t i o n , $1.37 f o r h a u l i n g , and $0.13 f o r bundle and towing c o s t s . A c c o r d i n g to the e s t i m a t e s shown i n Table 3, water t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n i s a cheaper way t o h a u l l o g s than the East Columbia Road a l t e r n a t i v e . However, the r e s e r v o i r w i l l be f u l l y s u i t a b l e f o r water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o n l y i n 1985, when the d e b r i s d i s p o s a l program has been completed (Chretien and Gaudin, 1979). Moreover, water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n may appear to be a l e s s r e l i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e than road access because the r e s e r v o i r w i l l be f r o z e n f o u r months a year and other un-c o n t r o l l a b l e f a c t o r s such as high winds on the lake and d e b r i s problems. N e v e r t h e l e s s , water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s the chosen o p t i o n , c u r r e n t l y being planned by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and Evans Products L t d . 103 D i s c u s s i o n Even though a compensation c l a u s e f o r f o r e s t access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n impacts does not appear i n the Water L i c e n c e , m i t i g a t i o n measures oc c u r r e d . In the c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t of the West Columbia Road, (approximately four m i l l i o n d o l l a r s ) , B.C. Hydro c o n t r i b u t e d approximately 2.3 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s (Brock, 1980). However, t h i s compensation was made on the c o n d i t i o n t h a t B.C. Hydro withdrew from any f u t u r e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y r e g a r d i n g f o r e s t r y impacts of the Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r oper-a t i o n . Compared t o Hugh K e e n l e y s i d e , t h i s l e v e l o f compen-s a t i o n corresponded to approximately 45 percent (weighed on a l l o w a b l e c u t ) . The balance of the West Columbia Road co s t was p a i d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e as a c r e d i t on stumpage t o Evans Products i n c o n f o r m i t y with S e c t i o n 88 o f the F o r e s t  Act (B.C., 1978a). Since the f l o o d i n g , West Columbia Road has been extended by approximately 15 k i l o m e t e r s . The con-s t r u c t i o n , however, d i d not meet the c r i t e r i a f o r c r e d i t t o stumpage, and the c o s t s were accounted f o r i n the normal procedure o f stumpage a p p r a i s a l . Under t h i s s i t u a t i o n the f o r e s t company pays a share of the c o s t s when the market value of the logs i s s m a l l e r than the sum o f : the o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , minimum stumpage r a t e s , and allowance f o r p r o f i t and r i s k . Otherwise i t may be c o n s i d e r e d as an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t to the Crown. Evans Products a l s o a p p l i e d f o r a c r e d i t a g a i n s t stumpage f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the East Columbia Road. However, t h i s assessment underestimated c o s t s and the F o r e s t S e r v i c e disapproved the request. 104 An a p r i o r i examination o f Table 3 may induce one to b e l i e v e t h a t water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s an a l t e r n a t i v e which, i n terms o f c o s t s , i s more d e s i r a b l e than the c o n d i t i o n s 3 p r e v a i l i n g p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g ( i . e . , $2.74 compared to $2.89/m ). However, c e r t a i n c o n s i d e r a t i o n s m e r i t examination. F i r s t , the i n i t i a l investment f o r the dewatering f a c -i l i t i e s and dump s i t e s accounts f o r $5,309,000. In Hanson's (1975) c a l c u l a t i o n , r e p o r t e d i n t h i s study, the c o s t o f c a p i t a l i s zero ( i . e . c a p i t a l i s a resource a v a i l a b l e without any expense). I f we assume, f o r example, t h a t the i n i t i a l i n v e s t -ment i s borrowed, and refunded over 20 years at an annual r a t e of 8 p e r c e n t , annual i n s t a l l m e n t s account f o r $540,733 or 3 $10,814,668 over 20 years. T h i s means an a d d i t i o n a l $1.18/m . Second, the c a l c u l a t i o n assumes f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n of the timber supply over the p l a n n i n g p e r i o d . As water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t i s a f u n c t i o n o f the volume ha r v e s t e d , f a i l u r e t o meet the f u l l commitment may r e s u l t i n h i g h e r c o s t s of t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n f o r each c u b i c meter of wood. The water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t equation may be expressed by the f o l l o w i n g : $5,309,000 + $1.6007x T 7 , . . . . , , 3 - — —: = Water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n cost/m where $5,309,000 i s the i n i t i a l investment ( f i x e d cost) and $1.6007 i s the c o s t o f h a n d l i n g one c u b i c meter of wood, times the volume handled (x). F i g u r e 12 shows t h a t at 89 p e r c e n t of the commitment, water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t equates the c o s t of h a u l i n g p r i o r to f l o o d i n g . 105 F i g u r e 12. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and l e v e l of commitment r e l a t i o n s h i p i n Mica Dam r e s e r v o i r area (East Side) ( C a l c u l a t e d a f t e r Hanson (1975) and BCFS (1980b)) 106 U t i l i z a t i o n under t h a t benchmark makes water t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n more expensive. The r e l a t i o n s h i p may induce a b e t t e r u t i l i z a t i o n o f the p o t e n t i a l of the area. A c c o r d i n g l y , the concept of maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d may be f o l l o w e d more e a s i l y i n an area where h a r v e s t i n g i s very s e n s i t i v e t o market f l u c -t u a t i o n s . However, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e has designated -the areas a t the heads o f Woods, S u l l i v a n and Bush R i v e r s as p r e s e n t l y i n a c c e s s i b l e ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980, p. 459). These areas account f o r at l e a s t 17 percent of the timber supply l o c a t e d i n the n o r t h e r n p o r t i o n o f the Golden TSA. F u r t h e r , the volume a l l o t t e d t o the companies has been below the maximum all o w a b l e cut every year i n the l a s t ten ye a r s , and i n the same p e r i o d the cut was l e s s than the l e v e l o f commitment d u r i n g seven y e a r s . T h i s may be e x p l a i n e d i n p a r t , by the f a c t t h a t timber supply i s very s e n s i t i v e t o market c o n d i t i o n s and t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s are an important component i n the c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n . Moreover, Evans Products, the l a r g e s t quota h o l d e r of the TSA, has estimated the timber supply 3 between Bush R i v e r t o Woods R i v e r to be 2,626,298 m (Hanson, 1975), or 56 percent of the value o f Table 3. Access problems are c e r t a i n l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a major p a r t of t h i s d i f f e r e n c e . From the f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n , i t may be assumed t h a t f o r e s t access road and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s have i n c r e a s e d as a r e s u l t o f Mica Dam. P a r t of t h i s c o s t has been def r a y e d by B.C. Hydro, i . e . 2.3 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . However, p o r t i o n s of the West Columbia Road and water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s 107 (dumps and dewatering f a c i l i t i e s ) w i l l l i k e l y be p a i d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e through S e c t i o n 88 o f the F o r e s t A c t . Higher o p e r a t i n g annual c o s t s w i l l a l s o l i k e l y be d e f r a y e d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e through stumpage a p p r a i s a l . However, when market c o n d i t i o n s are not f a v o u r a b l e , p a r t o f the charge may be c a r r i e d by Evans Products, o r other companies o p e r a t i n g i n the area. I t may r e s u l t i n a slow down i n h a r v e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n s when c o s t s outweight b e n e f i t s . Increased c o s t s o f t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n may be a s s o c i a t e d with an i n c r e a s e d s e n s i t i v i t y t o market f l u c t u a t i o n s f o r f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y . And, i n the end, t h i s may l e a d to d i f f i c u l t i e s t o apply f o r e s t management p r i n c i p l e s . REVELSTOKE DAM " E x i s t i n g l o g g i n g roads p r e s e n t l y used f o r the e x t r a c t i o n o f Crown timber above e l e -v a t i o n 18 80 which w i l l be inundated by the Revelstoke 1880 P r o j e c t r e s e r v o i r s h a l l be r e p l a c e d t o the f o l l o w i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s : main haul roads s h a l l be b u i l t t o at l e a s t F o r e s t S e r v i c e C l a s s 5 standard as per s p e c i -f i c a t i o n s F.S. 649; connections to branch roads s h a l l be r e p l a c e d to e x i s t i n g standards o f width and alignment. P r i o r to r e c o n s t r u c -t i o n , the D i s t r i c t F o r e s t e r s h a l l designate which are main haul and which are branch roads (Clause 2.1). Access t o timbered areas on the west s i d e o f the r e s e r v o i r s h a l l be p r o v i d e d by r e p l a c e -ment o f e x i s t i n g roads and/or by c o n s t r u c t i o n o f f e r r y l a n d i n g s on both s i d e s of the r e s e r -v o i r t o g e t h e r with such connecting roads as may be r e q u i r e d between s a i d f e r r y l a n d i n g s and e x i s t i n g l o g haul roads or the highway, a l l t o be b u i l t t o standards, alignment and 108 g r a d i e n t a c c e p t a b l e t o the D i s t r i c t F o r e s t e r and to B.C. Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y (Clause 2.2). A l l funding f o r i n v e s t i g a t i o n and c o n s t r u -c t i o n o f works i n Clauses 2.1 and 2.2 s h a l l be the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y . " (Water Resources S e r v i c e , 1977) The s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o u t l i n e d i n the Revelstoke Dam Water L i c e n c e , w i t h r e s p e c t t o road and f e r r y l a n d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n , r e p r e s e n t a t o t a l l y d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e from the Mica Dam s i t u a t i o n . The d e c i s i o n making process was the o b j e c t of s i g n i f i c a n t i n p u t from the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and f o r e s t companies. Environmental impact assessment was undertaken and two rounds o f p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , h e l d i n Revelstoke i n 1976, p e r m i t t e d concerned groups t o address r e l e v a n t i s s u e s . Moreover, as the Revelstoke area was over-committed i n terms of f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y , impact m i t i g a t i o n had t o be addressed. ACCESSIBILITY BEFORE FLOODING  Area and Access The area o f concern s t r e t c h e s from the c i t y o f Revelstoke to the f o o t o f Mica Dam, encompassing a d i s t a n c e of a p p r o x i -mately 130 k i l o m e t e r s . The Columbia R i v e r v a l l e y i s d e l i n e a t e d by the Monashees on the west s i d e and the S e l k i r k s on the e a s t s i d e (see Map 5). On the e a s t e r n s i d e , access to the timber supply i s made p o s s i b l e by the p r o v i n c i a l Highway #23. T h i s i s the former B i g Bend Highway, upgraded i n 196 7 f o r the Mica Dam works. With the presence o f t h r e e major streams, Bigmouth, 109 Goldstream and Downie, the l a r g e s t p a r t of the timber supply l i e s on the e a s t s i d e o f the Columbia R i v e r (66 p e r c e n t ) . For the western sl o p e s of the v a l l e y , access i s p r o v i d e d by three f e r r i e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y at 72, 104 and 120 k i l o m e t e r s n o r t h of Revelstoke. Logs are then hauled on Highway #2 3. A l s o , a major access road f o l l o w s the v a l l e y bottom from Revelstoke to F r i s b e e Creek, 32 k i l o m e t e r s upstream, t o reach the timber supply l o c a t e d i n the south-west p o r t i o n of the area. Companle s As Map 5 i l l u s t r a t e s , the Revelstoke area i s r e p r e s e n t e d as a v a r i e t y of f o r e s t tenures and o p e r a t o r s . Moreover, numerous t r a n s a c t i o n s between the companies r e s u l t i n a complex and dynamic system of timber a l l o c a t i o n . Tree-farm L i c e n c e No. 23 (TFL 23) was granted t o Canadian C e l l u l o s e (Cancel) to r e c o v e r over-mature western hemlock and western red cedar f o r pulp p r o d u c t i o n . However, Downie S t r e e t Sawmills has a c q u i r e d a twelve year c u t t i n g permit f o r sawlog p r o d u c t i o n i n the western p r o t i o n o f the Tree-farm L i c e n c e , accounting f o r 25% of TFL 2 3 n o r t h block annual a l l o w a b l e c u t . Dump s i t e s were l o c a t e d near Goldstream R i v e r and Downie Creek. Since 1973 as a r e s u l t o f Mica Dam, l o g s are hauled by t r u c k t o a dump s i t e at Christmas I s l a n d , a few k i l o m e t e r s south of Revelstoke. Downie S t r e e t Sawmills uses f e r r i e s t o c r o s s the Columbia and t r u c k - h a u l s the logs to Revelstoke. Tree-farm No. 38 (TF 38) i s owned by Beaumont Timber L t d . F e r r i e s and t r u c k haul are the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n means adopted by REVELSTOKE RESERVOIR ACCESS AND TRANSPORTATION Source: Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., _ p q 7 ^ B.C., Hvdro (1976b) _ I l l t h i s company. High garde p o l e s and sawlogs are s u p p l i e d mainly to Drew S a m i l l s (Malakwa), Downie S t r e e t Sawmills (Revelstoke), and Crown Z e l l e r b a c h (Armstrong) from the Tree-farm; S e v e r a l Timber L i c e n c e s are l o c a t e d along the Columbia. They are operated by Downie S t r e e t Sawmills and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , Drew Sawmills and Cancel. Timber Berth No. 74 (TB 74) i s a Crown Grant l e a s e d t o Evans Products. Logs are t r a n s p o r t e d by t r u c k to Golden. F i n a l l y . , the Arrowhead PSYU (now Revelstoke TSA) operated by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , i s s u e s c u t t i n g permits to Drew Sawmills and other s m a l l o p e r a t o r s such as B e l l Pole and Joe Kozek. To f a c i l i t a t e c o s t comparison between a l t e r n a t i v e means of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , the Revelstoke area was d i v i d e d i n t o seven l o g supply b l o c k s (see Map 5). The e v a l u a t i o n of t r a n s p o r t -a t i o n c o s t s i s shown i n Table 4, by l o g supply b l o c k s and major o p e r a t o r s . Data presented are adapted from Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975). Annual a l l o w a b l e cuts r e p r e s e n t the s i t u a t i o n of 1976, with r e d u c t i o n of timber supply from the r e s e r v o i r area. Timber supply of Drew Sawmills i s a l l o c a t e d between Beaumont and Arrowhead PSYU. The d i s t i n c t i o n between a l t e r n a t i v e s Highway and R i v e r d r i v e i s made to show an aspect of the downstream impact of Mica Dam water flow r e g u l a t i o n . The d i f f e r e n c e between the Highway Average Cost and the R i v e r D r i v e 3 Average Cost o4f $1.71/m may be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the Mica Dam. / \ O P E R A T O R S SUPPLY BLOCK CANCEL DOWNIE STREET BEAUMONT ARROWHEAD PSYU EVANS TOTAL AAC AND SAWMILLS TIMBER (REVELSTOKE TSA) PRODUCTS AVERAGE COSTS Bigmouth I00,454m3 H: $5.40/m3 R: $1.73/m3 16,764 H: $5.07 117,218m3 $5 .36/m3 $2.21/m3 Coldstream 122,776 H: $4.27 R: $0.70 2,566 H: $3. 39 14,224 H: $3.93 -139,566 $4.23 $1.08 Downie 100,453 H: $3.16 2,566 H: $2. 83 103,019 $1.39 $0.64 Carries 50,225 H: $2.12 2,566 H: $0.79 52,791 $2.10 Soards 89,291 F/H: $6. 362 13,717 F/H: $6.03 103,008 $6.31 K i r b y v i l l e 42,580 H: $2.12 54,858 F/H: $4. 41 6,096 F/H: $4.41 103,534 $3.47 TBA 74 6,156 H: $0.75 6,156 $0.75 TOTAL AAC AVERAGE 416,489m3 H: $3.80/m3 R: $1.24/m3 149,281 $5.54 50,800 $4.93 2,566 $1.79 6,156 $1.79 625,292m3 $4.27/m3 $2.56/m3 1. Annual Allowable Cut, H=Highway transportation cost, R=River drive transportation cost; 2. F/H= Ferry and Highway transportation cost. * Adapted from Reid, Co l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) Table 4. Transportation costs i n the Revelstoke area* 113 Cost c a l c u l a t i o n i s made as f o l l o w s : - B a s i c h a u l i n g r a t e $0.041/m3/km - F i x e d h a u l i n g c o s t (banding, dump sc a l e ) $0.42 4/m - Haul u s i n g f e r r y t o c r o s s r i v e r $1.059/m^ Dis t a n c e s are from the supply u n i t s (at the r i v e r ) t o Christmas I s l a n d f o r C a n c e l , and to Revelstoke f o r the o t h e r s . Costs are expressed i n 1975 d o l l a r s . At the time data were c o l l e c t e d t o make the c o s t c a l -c u l a t i o n , i n 1976, a p o r t i o n of the area was i n a c c e s s i b l e . In o r d e r to develop the f u l l p o t e n t i a l of the area, 64 k i l o m e t e r s of access road would have been necessary to b u i l d on the west s i d e , along with f o u r b r i d g e s , to r e p l a c e the l e s s e f f i c i e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s o f f e r r y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1975). Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) suggest a f i g u r e of 3 $4.17/m with access p o t e n t i a l developed. T h i s value i s com-pa r a b l e with the average c o s t o f $4.27 o f Table 4. The value i s l e s s because the long term bridging o p t i o n appears t o be more economical than f e r r y use. ACCESSIBILITY AFTER FLOODING S p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f the Water L i c e n c e i n d i c a t e t h a t s i g n i f i -cant m i t i g a t i o n measures were t o be undertaken f o r f o r e s t r y access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . Undoubtedly, the r e l o c a t i o n of Highway #2 3 i s the most important aspect of m i t i g a t i o n . In 1976, r e l o c a t i o n o f approximately 80 k i l o m e t e r s of the highway was e v a l u a t e d a t $47,868,000 (B.C. Hydro, 1976). And the problems'encountered i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the f i r s t by-pass, 114 i n the v i c i n i t y o f L i t t l e D a l l e s Canyon, may suggest t h a t the a c t u a l c o s t w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y outweigh the o r i g i n a l e s t i m a t e . The t r u c k - h a u l o p t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , remains open on the e a s t s i d e . A l s o , because Cancel demonstrated t h a t , p r i o r to 1973, water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n was a common p r a c t i c e f o r the company, i t was e n t i t l e d f o r compensation. For t h i s reason a dewatering f a c i l i t y i s contemplated a t the dam s i t e . Furthermore, a f e r r y l a n d i n g w i l l be c o n s t r u c t e d and equipment m o d i f i e d t o be usable on the r e s e r v o i r . F i n a l l y , the west s i d e road w i l l be r e l o c a t e d . P r e l i m i n a r y s t u d i e s by Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) est i m a t e d the comparative c o s t s o f the a l t e r n a t i v e s . R e s u l t s were adapted f o r t h i s study and are pres e n t e d i n F i g u r e 13. Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. concluded t h e i r study by suggest i n g t h a t a complete perimeter access by highway and road i s "co n s i d e r e d the most p r a c t i c a l and probably the most e f f i c i e n t combination t o r e p l a c e the l o s s o f b r i d g i n g o p t i o n across the Columbia R i v e r " (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1975, p. 27). The f e r r y system appeared u n f l e x i b l e , and the towing r e l o a d system l e a s t e f f i c i e n t a c c o r d i n g t o the authors. However, the e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i o n was not the most important f a c t o r i n choosing the a l t e r n a t i v e s . A d e c i s i o n was made with r e s p e c t t o the e n t i t l e -ment of f o r e s t companies t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s o f the same nature as those p r e v a i l i n g p r i o r to f l o o d i n g . For t h i s reason the f o l l o w i n g o p t i o n s were s e l e c t e d : 1. Beaumont Timber (TF 38) w i l l keep the ferry-highway o p t i o n s . T h i s may be j u s t i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n may damage high grade sawlogs (Coleman, 1980), and c o n t r a c t u a l arrangement between Beaumont and i t s c l i e n t s i n c l u d e s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n by t r u c k (McDonald, 1981). 115 EAST SIDE (66% o f volume) ALTERNATIVES: WEST SIDE (34% o f volume) HIGHWAY WATERED FERRIED DIRECT WATERED AND TOWED TO HIGHWAY HAUL AND TOWED AVERAGE COST: 4.01 6.82 6.21 5.70 6.82 ($/m^) ALTERNATIVE COMBINATION COST 4.76 4.58 ' 4.97 6.61 6.43 6.82 Fi g u r e 13. Revelstoke area t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t a l t e r n a t i v e s * * Adapted from Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) 116 2. Cancel (TFL 23) w i l l use the r e s e r v o i r f o r water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . As B.C. Hydro w i l l d e f r a y the c o s t s of dewatering f a c i l i t y and dump c o n s t r u c t i o n , and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s o f water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n are l e s s than road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , the company w i l l b e n e f i t on the long term ( i . e . w i l l r e t u r n t o pre-1973 c o n d i t i o n s ) . 3. Downie S t r e e t Sawmills and Drew Sawmills w i l l share, with C a n c e l , the dewatering f a c i l i t y . The s i t u a t i o n may d i f f e r from Cancel because these two companies e x t r a c t mainly sawlogs which have t o be manipulated more c a r e f u l l y than pulp l o g s . However, the t r u c k haul o p t i o n remains open i f i t appears t o be more s u i t a b l e i n some cases. The combination o f a l t e r n a t i v e s r e s u l t s i n an average 3 weighed t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t o f $6.60/m , which i s $2.02 i n excess of the most c o s t e f f i c i e n t c o s t a l t e r n a t i v e . I t should be noted, however, t h a t t h i s r e s u l t was o b t a i n e d from c a l c u -l a t i o n o f p r e l i m i n a r y data. R e l o c a t i o n of Highway #2 3 was s t a t e d as the major expen-d i t u r e i n terms of m i t i g a t i o n measures. The second major expenditure appears t o be r e l a t e d to the dewatering f a c i l i t y . Cost e s t i m a t e s f o r e i g h t methods of l o g t r a n s f e r i n d i c a t e a range i n c a p i t a l c o s t from $1,455,00 t o $5,580,000 i n 1978 d o l l a r s (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1978). C a n c e l , Downie S t r e e t Sawmills and Drew Sawmills are c u r r e n t l y a s s e s s i n g the o p t i o n s o f f e r e d . I t seems t h a t the "Bundle Stacker Loading Method" w i l l be chosen (McDonald, 19 81). T h i s method c o n s i s t s of an i n c l i n e d ramp where a " s t a c k e r " runs on to grasp a l o g bundle from the water, r e v e r s e s out of the water, and proceeds up the ramp to l o a d the t r u c k . The c a p i t a l c o s t of t h i s method was e s t i m a t e d a t $1,455,000, or a t o t a l annual c o s t of $439,000 3 3 ( i . e . $0.62/m i f 708,000 m are handled annually) (Reid, C o l l i n s 117 and Assoc., 1978). An a d d i t i o n a l 2 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s f o r the r e l o c a t i o n of the west s i d e road, c o n s t r u c t i o n o f dump s i t e s , m o d i f i c a t i o n o f the f e r r y system, r e s e r v o i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment, and replacement o f connections t o branch roads seems a reasonable assumption, p o s s i b l y even c o n s e r v a t i v e . As a r e s u l t o f the m i t i g a t i o n undertaken, i t seems t h a t the f o r e s t companies w i l l b e n e f i t i n the long-run from the t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n m o d i f i c a t i o n s . Even i f Highway #23 i s approximately 16 k i l o m e t e r s longer than p r e v i o u s l y , i t w i l l be a h i g h grade access road. Revelstoke Dam w i l l be a "run-of-the r i v e r " p l a n t which means s m a l l f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the r e s e r v o i r l e v e l , thus f a c i l i t a t i n g l o g h a n d l i n g . Furthermore, s p e c i f i -c a t i o n o f the Water L i c e n c e s t a t e s t h a t : "B.C. Hydro s h a l l arrange f o r removal o f f l o a t i n g d e b r i s t o permit n a v i g a t i o n on the main stem of the r e s e r v o i r w i t h i n one year o f f i l l i n g t o o p e r a t i n g l e v e l s . . . " (Water Resources S e r v i c e , 1977) From the f o r e g o i n g a n a l y s i s i t seems reasonable t o suggest t h a t , a f t e r the completion o f the dam, the timber supply of the Revelstoke area w i l l remain a c c e s s i b l e , perhaps even moreso than before f l o o d i n g . Along with p h y s i c a l a c c e s s i b i l i t y , economic a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l a l s o l i k e l y be enhanced as a r e s u l t o f B.C. Hydro expenditure on f a c i l i t i e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , the 3 average t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t was approximately $2.56/m before 3 1973, then i t i n c r e a s e d t o $4.27/m as a r e s u l t of Mica Dam o p e r a t i o n , and with the Revelstoke P r o j e c t f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e d 3 to an estimate o f $6.60/m . The c a p i t a l c o s t share o f the l a t t e r r a t e w i l l be def r a y e d by B.C. Hydro, which leaves the 118 f o r e s t companies with the o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . The e s t i m a t i o n r e f l e c t i n g c o n d i t i o n s p r i o r t o 1973 may give a good i n d i c a t i o n of these c o s t s o f o p e r a t i o n . In c o n t r a s t to Mica Dam, the s i g n i f i c a n t a l l o c a t i o n o f economic resources f o r the development of access roads and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s w i l l c e r t a i n l y p l a c e the Revelstoke timber supply area i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o absorb the f l u c t u -a t i o n s o f the market.„ The c o n j u n c t i o n of d i v e r s i f i e d access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s (road, f e r r y and water) with a<igreater u t i l i z a t i o n o f the timber resource ( i . e . pulp l o g s , sawlogs, p o l e s , shakes, s h i n g l e s , etc.) may r e s u l t i n a r e s i l i e n t supply system more s u i t a b l e f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n o f f o r e s t management p r i n c i p l e s . As d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , a c c e s s i b i l i t y i s a major problem i n the case of Golden TSA, which i s worsened by the Mica Dam P r o j e c t . The TSA a l s o l a c k s timber resource d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n as a r e s u l t o f the presence of on l y one major o p e r a t o r p r o d u c i n g mainly sawlog d e r i v a t e s . T h i s s i t u a t i o n makes the timber supply system very u n s t a b l e . For i n s t a n c e , p r i o r t o 1975, Canadian Willamette and Crestwood F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s 3 were h o l d i n g quotas o f 136,710 m /year (25.4 percent of Evans Products' quota). These companies intended t o cut over-mature t r e e s t o produce cedar f e n c i n g and pulp. However, t h e i r c u t t i n g r i g h t s were r e l i n q u i s h e d r e s u l t i n g from uneconomic o p e r a t i o n f o r Canadian Willamette (Farquharson, 1974) and f a i l u r e t o develop timber f o r Crestwood'Forest I n d u s t r i e s (Hanson, 1975). A l l o c a t i o n o f economic resources f o r the 119 development o f access roads and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s seems to be a necessary step t o undertake i n the Golden TSA. I t may r e s u l t i n a l e s s e r dependency of the timber supply system upon market f l u c t u a t i o n s . In t u r n , t h i s may t r i g g e r a b e t t e r u t i l i z a t i o n o f the timber resource, the es t a b l i s h m e n t of new f o r e s t companies and thus, b e t t e r f o r e s t management. For t h i s purpose, systems a n a l y s i s may be u s e f u l i n d e s i g n i n g a timber a l l o c a t i o n model, and seeking, by o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h -n i q u e s , f o r example, an a l t e r n a t i v e which w i l l maximize timber supply at a minimum c o s t . F i n a l l y , t o conclude t h i s chapter, a q u e s t i o n may be r a i s e d , based upon the f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n : Cancel P u l p m i l l was planned at the same p e r i o d as Hugh Keenleyside Dam, and i t s l o c a t i o n , 2 k i l o m e t e r s downstream, r e s u l t e d i n an expenditure i n excess o f 15 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s f o r a l o c k to permit l o g t r a n s f e r , Highway #2 3 was r e l o c a t e d only 10 years a f t e r i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n , at a time when Revelstoke was p a r t of the B.C. Hydro p l a n n i n g s c e n a r i o , F o r e s t r y i s the major a c t i v i t y i n the Revelstoke area and the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a h i g h grade highway, whose c o s t w i l l l i k e l y be w e l l over 50 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s , i s not j u s t i f i e d on the grounds o f i t s use• From a land-use p l a n n i n g p e r s p e c t i v e i t seems reasonable to suggest t h a t resource management between hydro-dams and f o r e s t r y s u f f e r a l a c k o f i n t e g r a t i o n . I f t h i s tendency p e r s i s t s i n the f u t u r e , i t may r e s u l t i n an unnecessary major expenditure o f p u b l i c revenues. To c o u n t e r a c t t h i s t r e n d i t may be a p p r o p r i a t e t o undertake steps t o : (1) d e f i n e v a r i o u s resource development s c e n a r i o s i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o ecosystem p r o d u c t i v i t y , s o c i a l d e s i r a b i l i t y , and economic e f f i c i e n c y ; 120 (2) p r o v i d e a mechanism t o c i r c u l a t e the above i n f o r m a t i o n among i n t e r e s t groups and government agencies; and (3) e l a b o r a t e resource development s t r a t e g i e s o u t l i n g p o t e n t i a l l o c a t i o n and magnitude o f p r o j e c t s . T h i s approach may p r o v i d e d e c i s i o n -makers u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n on a v a i l a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s , but a l s o on f u t u r e o p t i o n s c l o s u r e and r e p e r c u s s i o n s on those remaining. 121 CHAPTER IV: FOREST LAND VALUE: THE CASE OF REVELSTOKE DAM C o n s i d e r a t i o n of f o r e s t r y impacts i n hydro-dam p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n was of r e l a t i v e l y minor importance i n the beginning of the 19 6 0's. Since t h a t p e r i o d , however, the s i t u a t i o n has e v o l v e d . In 1976, a B.C. Hydro b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s purported to i n c l u d e e x t e r n a l c o s t s and non-power b e n e f i t s and c o s t s was c a r r i e d out f o r the Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t . W i t h i n t h i s frame-work, f o r e s t land v a l u e was assessed i n terms of foregone stumpage revenues to the p r o v i n c e due to the p r o j e c t . However, B.C. Hydro's approach l a c k e d an adequate knowledge of the f o l l o w i n g : - A d d r e s s i n g energy demand q u e s t i o n s , - C o n s i d e r i n g a l l the a l t e r n a t i v e s to supply energy, - I n c l u d i n g r e l e v a n t c o s t s borne by the a f f e c t e d r e s o u r c e s , - Using a p p r o p r i a t e data, - Determining m i t i g a t i o n and compensation measures. Since b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s w i l l l i k e l y be of use as a d e c i s i o n making t o o l f o r f u t u r e hydro-dam p r o j e c t s i n B r i t i s h Columbia, i t i s r e l e v a n t to assess the c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n and v a l i d i t y of B.C. Hydro's approach. For purposes of i l l u s t r a t i o n , the p r e s e n t a n a l y s i s focusses on f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n . 122 By s e l e c t i n g one component o f t h e o r i g i n a l b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f the a n a l y s i s i s reduced t o manageable p r o -p o r t i o n s g i v e n the c o n s t r a i n t s o f t h e t h e s i s . Moreover, as f o r e s t l a n d v a l u e i s r e l a t i v e l y e a s i l y q u a n t i f i a b l e i n monetary terms i t s h o u l d p r e s e n t fewer d i f f i c u l t i e s t h a n a n a l y s i s o f l e s s t r e a t a b l e components. T h e r e f o r e , f i n d i n g s r e v e a l i n g s i g n i f i c a n t weaknesses i n e x i s t i n g approaches t o f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n would i n d i c a t e t h a t weaknesses a r e l i k e l y t o be found i n o t h e r p a r t s o f the a n a l y s i s . ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS  The Concept I n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y , t h e c o n c e r n f o r t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n was r a i s e d . T h i s i s r e l a t e d t o t h e g e n e r a l economic problem w h i c h " . . . i s t o use a v a i l a b l e s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s t o maximize r e s u l t a n t human w e l f a r e " (Howe, 1971, p. 3 ) . B e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s stems from w e l f a r e economics, and by comparing a l t e r n a t i v e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s o f r e s o u r c e use among t y p e o f use, space and t i m e , p r o v i d e s a r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n methodology t h a t i n d i c a t e s t h e l e a s t c o s t means o f a c h i e v i n g s t a t e d o b j e c t i v e s . A b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s framework may be p e r c e i v e d as a system t o d e c i d e upon a l t e r n a t i v e r e s o u r c e development s t r a t e g i e s (see d i s c u s s i o n on systems approach i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n ) . I n i t s b r o a d e r sense, b e n e f i t - c o s t framework would a n a l y s e 123 socio-economic and p o l i t i c a l circumstances to search f o r an optimum r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n . Such an approach would t h e r e f o r e seek answers to q u e s t i o n s r e l a t e d to "what" does s o c i e t y want i n order t o enhance i t s w e l l - b e i n g , and "how" these needs can be s a t i s f i e d . However, a formal a n a l y s i s i s seldom undertaken at t h a t l e v e l . B e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s i s o f t e n reduced to c o s t e f f e c t i v e -ness examination of a p r e - s e l e c t e d p r o j e c t . Indeed, the b e n e f i t -c o s t a n a l y s i s may hot be i n t r o d u c e d u n t i l a f t e r the d e s i g n s , l o c a t i o n s , and type of p r o j e c t have a l r e a d y been s e l e c t e d . In s h o r t , a t the l e a s t the need f o r hydro-dams are taken f o r granted at t h i s l e v e l , and the i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s l a r g e l y devoted t o an assessment of the value o f the r e s o u r c e s a f f e c t e d or foregone by the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the dam. In sum, the o b j e c t i v e of t h i s chapter i s to c r i t i q u e and improve B.C. Hydro's a n a l y s i s by examining the s i n g u l a r problem of f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n , r a t h e r than to perform a b e n e f i t -c o s t a n a l y s i s . L i m i t a t i o n of the examination excludes the con-s i d e r a t i o n f o r m e t h o d o l o g i c a l shortcomings of a higher order (e.g. q u e s t i o n s r e l a t e d to energy demand, t o energy a l t e r n a t i v e s , and to the v a l i d i t y of government agencies g o a l s ) . Moreover, t h i s a n a l y s i s of f o r e s t l a n d v a l u a t i o n permits a r e l a t i v e l y simple i l l u s t r a t i o n o f the problem l i k e l y to be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the i n t a n g i b l e s , non-market v a l u e s , or other s u b j e c t i v e aspects t h a t are more d i f f i c u l t to assess i n a b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s framework. B e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s operates w i t h i n the s o c i a l accounting framework, and i s designed to serve p u b l i c p o l i c y which aims at maximization of s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g . T h i s i ? pursued i n the 124 b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s by the a p p l i c a t i o n o f the Pareto C r i t e r i o n , which i s simply the e x p r e s s i o n o f the economic e f f i c i e n c y concept. "The Pareto C r i t e r i o n holds t h a t a s i t u a t i o n A i s s u p e r i o r t o a s i t u a t i o n B i f i n A • each member of s o c i e t y i s at l e a s t as w e l l as he was i n B and at l e a s t one member i s b e t t e r o f f i n A than B." (ELUC, 1977, p. 5) The With-Without C r i t e r i o n i s o f t e n regarded as the r e f e r -ence p o i n t t o assess "... what the s t a t e o f the n a t i o n (province, r e g i o n , ...) w i l l be-rwith the p r o j e c t as c o n t r a s t e d w i t h what the s t a t e o f the n a t i o n w i l l be without the p r o j e c t " (Howe, 1971, p. 8) and determines whether the Pareto C r i t e r i o n holds or not. The primary o b j e c t i v e o f p r o v i n c i a l income maximization (economic e f f i c i e n c y ) i n b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s i s o f t e n a s s o c i -ated with a secondary o b j e c t i v e aiming at income d i s t r i b u t i o n ( e q u i t y ) . Even i f the Pareto C r i t e r i o n i s f o l l o w e d by f u l l y compensating those who bear the c o s t s o f the p r o j e c t , net b e n e f i t s may accrue on l y t o a segment of the s o c i e t y (e.g. urban c e n t r e s ) . The account o f n o n - e f f i c i e n c y o b j e c t i v e s , such as income d i s t r i b u t i o n , i s p a r t o f the s o c i a l w e l f a r e f u n c t i o n and ought t o be co n s i d e r e d i n the a n a l y s i s . For t h i s reason, the b e n e f i t - c o s t method has been expanded t o take i n t o account the m u l t i p l i c i t y o f s o c i e t y ' s g o a l s . M u l t i p l e O b j e c t i v e P l a n n i n g A c c o r d i n g t o the U.S. Water Resources C o u n c i l , o b j e c t i v e s r e l e v a n t t o water resource p r o j e c t s are to enhance: J 125 - n a t i o n a l economic development, - the q u a l i t y of the environment, - s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g , and, - r e g i o n a l development. (Howe, 1971, p. 20) Assuming o b j e c t i v e s r e p r e s e n t i n g v a l u e s commensurable on a s i n g l e s c a l e , Howe (1971) i d e n t i f i e d two approaches f ° r b e n e f i t -c o s t analysis."'" F i r s t , an o b j e c t i v e (e.g. economic e f f i c i e n c y ) i s maximized, s u b j e c t to c o n s t r a i n t s of other s t a t e d o b j e c t -i v e s . Second, c r e a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s designs with differing*};/ ' weights on the o b j e c t i v e s . I n s p i r e d by these two approaches the Working Group on B e n e f i t - C o s t A n a l y s i s o f the Environment and Land Use Committee S e c r e t a r i a t designed an h y b r i d method which i s : "... t o design the p r o j e c t so as to achieve maximum economic e f f i c i e n c y and then e v a l -uate a l t e r a t i o n s t o the p r o j e c t which achieve o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s . In t h i s p r o -cedure, the c o s t s o f the design changes are viewed as the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f the degree of attainment of some n o n - e f f i c i e n c y o b j e c t i v e . Viewed i n t h i s r e s p e c t , the p o l i t i c a l decision-makers can determine i n a s u b j e c t i v e f a s h i o n whether the degree of attainment o f t h a t p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t i v e i s j u s t i f i e d by the added c o s t of a l t e r -a t i o n . " (ELUC, 1977, p. 100) A third approach was outlined by Herfindhal and Kneese (1974) where the establishment of an objective function through collective (political) choice is of relevance for objectives being substantially incommensurable on any simple scale, and to deal with shortcomings of the analysis related to market imperfection and to assumptions of the economic viewpoint. See also for example, Mishan (1976), BLUC (1977, pp. 97-99) and Sinden and Worrell (1979). 126 T h i s method was used f o r the Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t (Reid, 1976) and i n the p r e l i m i n a r y environmental s t u d i e s of the McGregor D i v e r s i o n p r o j e c t (Reid, Crowther and P a r t n e r s L t d . , 1978). A three account system was designed i n r e c o g n i t i o n o f the m u l t i -p l i c i t y o f s o c i a l g o als and the n e c e s s i t y to d e f i n e d the impacts at d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s , o u t l i n e d as f o l l o w s : P r o v i n c i a l Account Pursuin g the o b j e c t i v e o f maximum p r o v i n c i a l income, t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n d i r e c t b e n e f i t s and c o s t s measurable i n commensurable monetary u n i t s , Environmental Account N o n - e f f i c i e n c y o b j e c t i v e d e s c r i b i n g adverse and b e n e f i c i a l impacts on the n a t u r a l and s o c i a l environment, Regional Account Income d i s t r i b u t i o n (equity) o b j e c t i v e s which i d e n t i f y the socio-economic and geographic groups b e a r i n g the c o s t s of the p r o j e c t and groups t o which b e n e f i t s are a c c r u i n g . (Reid, 1976, pp. 1-5 t o 1-10) The procedure c o n s i s t s of determing the a l t e r n a t i v e which maximizes p r o v i n c i a l income m i t i g a t e d w i t h the two other accounts. Commensurable b e n e f i t s and c o s t s are assessed i n the a n a l y s i s , whereas incommensurable b e n e f i t s and c o s t s are i d e n t i f i e d and l e f t f o r p o l i t i c a l judgement. As t h i s study i s p r i m a r i l y concerned with f o r e s t r y economic c o s t s , the method i s r e l e v a n t f o r the a n a l y t i c a l framework f o r e v a l u a t i o n of f o r e s t r y c o s t s . FORESTRY EVALUATION WITHIN BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK Economic Costs o f Withdrawing F o r e s t Land From P r o d u c t i o n M c K i l l o p (1978) o u t l i n e d the economic c o s t s of withdrawing timber and f o r e s t l a n d from commercial p r o d u c t i o n . The suggested 127 stepwise e v a l u a t i o n process proceeds as f o l l o w s : (1) Determination of the l o s s o f timber h a r v e s t , (2) Estimate of the e f f e c t on employment and output i n wood p r o c e s s i n g . (3) A p p l i c a t i o n o f a m u l t i p l i e r to assess the impact on the r e g i o n a l (or l o c a l ) economy, (4) Determination of the e f f e c t s on government revenue, (5) Estimate of the e f f e c t s on p r i c e and market. The a d a p t a t i o n of t h i s e v a l u a t i o n process f o r hydro-dam impacts, w i t h i n the framework o f b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s , i s shown i n F i g u r e 14. Cost E v a l u a t i o n of Revelstoke Dam Impact on F o r e s t r y C o n s i d e r i n g the p r o v i n c i a l account o n l y , ( i . e . maximi-z a t i o n of p r o v i n c i a l income) the Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t may y i e l d a net b e n e f i t o f $259 m i l l i o n ( i n 1975 d o l l a r s , 10 percent d i s -count rate) o r a B e n e f i t Cost R a t i o o f 1.55:1.00 (Reid, 1976). However, at the time the a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d out, some f o r e s t r y c o s t s were unevaluated (e.g. c o s t s of c l e a r i n g ) . Furthermore, the f o r e s t r y c o s t s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the r e g i o n a l account were not e x p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e d i n the m i t i g a t e d development p l a n ( i . e . the three account system). As mentioned p r e v i o u s l y , the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the r e g i o n a l account i s l e f t t o p o l i t i c a l judgement. V a r i o u s c o n s u l t a n t s were h i r e d by B.C. Hydro to e v a l u a t e the d i f f e r e n t aspects of f o r e s t r y c o s t s . Table 5 shows these c o s t s and t h e i r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n the b e n e f i t c o s t a n a l y s i s . C o n s u l t a n t s ' e v a l u a t i o n s d i f f e r from the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s because o f u n a v a i l a b i l i t y of i n f o r m a t i o n f o r c a l c u l a t i n g the estimate o f r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g c o s t , use of d i f f e r e n t approaches 128 i n c a l c u l a t i n g the stumpage v a l u e , and l i m i t a t i o n o f r e g i o n a l employment t o the l o c a l area of Revelstoke. Moreover, v a l u e -added was not i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . The author of the a n a l y s i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t "... secondary value added l o s s e s ... appear as p a r t of the r e g i o n a l account" (Reid, 1976, p. 2.23), but omitted t h e i r i n c l u s i o n . I t i s r e l e v a n t t o c o n s i d e r these c o s t s because, even i n the p o s s i b i l i t y of o b t a i n i n g l o g s from a l t e r n a t i v e sources, i t can be argued t h a t "... timber r e p l a c i n g the l o s t cut may simply r e p r e s e n t a d i v e r s i o n o f supply from oth e r wood p r o c e s s i n g f a c i l i t i e s or a r e d u c t i o n i n f u t u r e h a r v e s t l e v e l s " ( M c K i l l o p , 1978, p. 415). C e r t a i n l y t h e r e i s a need f o r f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n of f o r -e s t r y e v a l u a t i o n s , however, i t i s not the i n t e n t o f t h i s chapter t o e x p l o r e a l l the r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f the t o p i c . The remainder of the chapter i s devoted to the s c r u t i n y of f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n . GENERAL APPROACH TO FOREST LAND EVALUATION F o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n c o n s i s t s of determining the economic value of the l a n d base and s t a n d i n g timber before e n t e r i n g the p r o d u c t i o n c y c l e . T h i s i s an important step i n e v a l u a t i n g the f o r e s t r y c o s t s r e s u l t i n g from hydro-dam p r o j e c t s , because i t i n d i c a t e s the magnitude o f the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of f o r g o i n g the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e , and r e p r e s e n t s a s i g n i f i c a n t l o s s i n govern-ment revenue. F i g u r e 14: P r o v i n c i a l and r e g i o n a l accounts o f f o r e s t r y c o s t r e s u l t i n g from hydro-dam p r o j e c t s * IMPACTS Loss of Timber Supply Employment and Output i n Wood P r o c e s s i n g Regional Employment and Income Government Revenue PROVINCIAL ACCOUNT P r i c e and Market (minor impact i f reduc-t i o n i n timber output minimal) Hydro-Dam S p e c i f i c Costs REGIONAL ACCOUNT Number o f d i r e c t jobs l o s t , Loss of value added o f wood p r o c e s s i n g Employment m u l t i p l i e r , Income M u l t i p l i e r Loss o f stumpage revenue from: 1. l o s s o f f o r e s t l a n d , 2. i n c r e a s e (decrease) i n t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n c o s t s (may generate a d d i t i o n a l stumpage revenue) Loss o f R o y a l t i e s and r e n t a l fees Loss i n p e r s o n a l income tax, s a l e s tax, and corporate tax Expenditure on access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , R e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g iShort term impacts a s s o c i a t e d w i t h : - c o m p e t i t i o n f o r labour - d i s r u p t i o n o f l o g g i n g p l a n s and p a t t e r n s - c o n f l i c t o f workforces assoc-i a t e d with c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the dam and those engaged i n f o r e s t r y . * Adapted and expanded from M c K i l l o p (1978) and Reid (1976) 130 Table 5. Evaluation of Revelstoke Dam forestry costs. (10% discount rate, i n 1975 dollars) IMPACT ACCOUNT CONSULTANTS' INCLUSION IN Pro v i n c i a l (P) or EVALUATION BENEFIT-COST Regional (R) ANALYSIS2 Employment R 14 1 Value Added R $3,913,0003 unevaluated Regional Employment R 20 3 10 Local Income R $627,0003 $627,000 Stumpage Value Loss of forest land Increase i n operating cost P P $989,0001 $1,786,0001 $430,000 $1,786,000 Expenditure on access and transportation P $1,624,0001 $1,624,000 Reservoir Clearing P $20+ m i l l i o n 4 unevaluated Sources: 1. Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) 2. Reid (1976) 3. B.C. Hydro (1976a) 4. See Chapter V. 131 ASSUMPTIONS The outcome o f f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n i s dependent upon the assumptions of the a n a l y s i s . For the case o f Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r f o r e s t l a n d area, i n c l u d i n g approximately 77 percent o f Crown land, three major assumptions are o u t l i n e d i n terms of f o r e s t p o l i c y and management p r a c t i c e s , namely: r e g u l a t e d f o r e s t , even-age stand management, and maximum sus-t a i n e d y i e l d p o l i c y . Regulated F o r e s t A r e g u l a t e d f o r e s t i m p l i e s t h a t a steady flow o f timber i s ha r v e s t e d every year from the u n i t o f management i n r e l a t i o n -s h i p w i t h the l e v e l o f a l l o w a b l e c u t . In the case o f the t r a n s i t i o n phase between the old-growth and the second growth f o r e s t , o l d growth timber i s d e p l e t e d over the r o t a t i o n p e r i o d . Even though the over-mature timber stands are an unregulated component of the f o r e s t , i t may be i n f e r e d t h a t t h i s volume w i l l be d e p l e t e d at a constant r a t e over a con-v e r s i o n p e r i o d g r e a t e r than the 75 year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d o f the dam. I t i s t h e r e f o r e assumed t h a t the assessed area p r o v i d e s an annual cut e q u i v a l e n t t o i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the a l l o w a b l e cut o f the u n i t o f management, as determined by the H a n z l i k equation. Even Age Stand Management C o n c e p t u a l l y , t h i s management p r a c t i c e i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the es t a b l i s h m e n t o f a f o r e s t stand at a given time and i t s e n t i r e removal at some predetermined r o t a t i o n age. The f o r e s t 132 stand i s t h e r e f o r e t r e a t e d as having a begi n n i n g and end-p o i n t i n time (Davis, 1966). In terms of e v a l u a t i o n i t means t h a t an immature stand may be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a given age, and i t s value d e r i v e d from the two r e f e r e n c e p o i n t s . Maximum Su s t a i n e d Y i e l d P o l i c y Assuming t h a t the f o r e s t p r o v i d e s continuous p r o d u c t i o n , and comprised o f stands e s t a b l i s h e d on bare la n d and cut at ma t u r i t y , another element must be determined: the l e n g t h o f r o t a t i o n . The r o t a t i o n , o r age of cut, i s determined by the age o f f o r e s t stand which r e s u l t s i n a maximum annual h a r v e s t on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s . T h i s r o t a t i o n age i s p r i m a r i l y determined by the p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the f o r e s t growth. In s e t t i n g the r o t a t i o n age at the c u l m i n a t i o n o f the mean annual increment, maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d p o l i c y bears import-ant economic assumptions: (1) no r e g e n e r a t i o n l a g between har-v e s t and stand's e s t a b l i s h m e n t , (2) co s t o f s i l v i c u l t u r e e f f o r t i s zero, (3) c o s t o f c a p i t a l i s equal t o zero, (4) t i m -ber p r i c e and technology are constant, and (5) v a r i a b l e s o f the o p e r a t i n g c o s t (e.g. a c c e s s i b i l i t y , l o g g i n g methods) are exogeneous (Hyde, 19 80). Adopting the economic viewpoint t o maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d means t h a t immature timber has no va l u e , there i s no a p p r e c i a t i o n o f the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e , and s i l v i l c u l t u r e i s no n - e x i s t a n t . However, o b s e r v a t i o n o f f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y i n B.C. c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s i s not the case. T h e r e f o r e , i t i s reasonable t o suggest t h a t f o r e s t r y i s i n e f f i c i e n t from the economic viewpoint, and i t s c u r r e n t p o l i c y i s 133 j u s t i f i e d by t h e pursuance o f n o n - e f f i c i e n c y g o a l s (e.g. employ-ment). As a r e s u l t , an economic assessment o f t h e f o r e s t l a n d under c u r r e n t p o l i c y w i l l u n d e r e s t i m a t e i t s v a l u e . Two extreme approaches may be f o l l o w e d t o s o l v e the paradox. One i s t o adopt th e economic v i e w p o i n t , i n which i t i s argued t h a t : "In o r d e r t o l e a r n about' t i m b e r s u p p l y , we must f i r s t a s s e s s e f f i c i e n t t i m b e r p r o -d u c t i o n . I n o r d e r t o l e a r n about l a n d a l l o c a t i o n t o t i m b e r we must f i r s t d e t e r -mine what l a n d can e f f i c i e n t l y produce t i m b e r . " (Hyde, 1980, p. 57) The o t h e r , i s t o f o l l o w t h e maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d p o l i c y and t o a d d r e s s t h e n o n - e f f i c i e n c y g o a l s t h e p o l i c y i s d e s i g n e d t o a c h i e v e . In t h i s s e c t i o n an h y b r i d approach i s s e l e c t e d by a d o p t i n g t h e maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d model and c o n s i d e r i n g some a s p e c t s o f the economic v i e w p o i n t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e v a l u a t i o n o f immature t i m b e r , s i l v i c u l t u r e , and r e s o u r c e appre-c i a t i o n . I t must be r e c o g n i z e d , however, t h a t t h i s v i e w p o i n t u n d e r e s t i m a t e s the f o r e s t l a n d value.. UNIT OF MEASUREMENT The v a l u e a t t r i b u t e d t o f o r e s t l a n d r e f e r s t o t h e concept o f l a n d r e n t . I t r e p r e s e n t s t h e t h e o r e t i c a l e a r n i n g s o f l a n d r e s o u r c e s , d e f i n e d as "... t h e economic r e t u r n t h a t a c c r u e s o r s h o u l d a c c r u e t o l a n d f o r i t s use i n p r o d u c t i o n " (Barlowe, 1972, p. 157). F o r t h e f o r e s t r e s o u r c e t h i s i s r e f e r r e d t o t h e p r i c e o f t i m b e r , known as the stumpage v a l u e , which i s : 134 "... t h e n e t v a l u e o f a t r a c t o f t i m b e r t o be h a r v e s t e d by s u b t r a c t i n g from t h e e s t i -mated v a l u e o f the p r o d u c t s t h a t can be r e c o v e r e d from i t t h e c o s t s n e c e s s a r y t o r e a l i z e t h o s e v a l u e s , i n c l u d i n g a r e t u r n t o t h e o p e r a t o r . The p r i c e i s t h u s i n the n a t u r e o f a r e s i d u a l v a l u e - the unearned i n c r e m e n t o r s u r p l u s o f v a l u e o v e r the n e c e s s a r y c o s t s o f e x p l o i t i n g t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . " (Task F o r c e on Crown Timber D i s p o s a l , 1974a, p.. 9) In B r i t i s h C o lumbia, stumpage a p p r a i s a l s have t h e i m p o r t -ant f u n c t i o n o f s e t t i n g the p r i c e s t o be charge d f o r Crown t i m b e r . I n the absence o f open c o m p e t i t i o n , stumpage has t o r e f l e c t t h e f u l l v a l u e o f t h e r e s o u r c e s made a v a i l a b l e f o r h a r v e s t ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , 1980d). T h e r e f o r e , stumpage v a l u e can be an a p p r o p r i a t e i n d i c a t o r o f t h e f o r e s t l a n d v a l u e . MODEL OF FOREST LAND EVALUATION Development Stages o f t h e F o r e s t A t a g i v e n t i m e , a f o r e s t c o n s i s t s o f the a s s o c i a t i o n o f a l a n d base and t r e e s growing (or e s t a b l i s h i n g ) on t h e s i t e . The l a n d base has a f i x e d v a l u e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i t s growing c a p a c i t y ( p r o d u c t i v i t y ) . The t i m b e r v a l u e i n c r e a s e s w i t h time as the f o r e s t grows. The economic f o r e s t l a n d v a l u e may t h e r e f o r e be d e f i n e d as t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e c o s t o f a f i x e d f a c t o r , the l a n d base, and the c o s t o f t i m e , the t i m b e r volume. x To f a c i l i t a t e t he e v a l u a t i o n , a f o r e s t may be c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n t h r e e development s t a g e s : bare l a n d , immature f o r e s t , mature f o r e s t . F i g u r e 15 i l l u s t r a t e s a s i m p l e model o f f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n . 135 Figure 15. Model of forest land evaluation* Regulated Forest Lv = Sr x AAC Even-Age Stand Management Maximum Sustained Y i e l d Policy Value of Timber! and Land Value (M) Cv = Lv (l+i) 1 + 21(Cn(l+i) t n- Rnd+i ) 1 n J n=0 r I n=t T • Lv , / Rn Cn . \ I v T l+T) r - t + IlA7r+i)n-t -(I+i)n-t; M (Sr x Vol) + Lv Sr: Stumpage value at rotat i o n age AAC: Annual Allowable Cut i : discount rate t: present time, expressed as the age of the forest r: r o t a t i o n age C: Cost R: Revenue Vol: Timber Volume Background provided by Davis (1966) 136 Bare Land The value o f the land base i s the pr e s e n t value of expected f u t u r e l a n d r e n t . I t i s a f u n c t i o n o f p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the s i t e , k i n d and i n t e n s i t y o f management, and market value o f the timber with f a c t o r s o f access b e i n g o f c o n t r o l l i n g importance (Davis, 1966). Assuming a r e g u l a t e d f o r e s t , land value r e p r e s e n t s the c a p i t a l value o f a permanent annual income, r e s u l t i n g from the c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the a l l o w a b l e cut of the area a p p r a i s e d . Immature F o r e s t Two approaches may be f o l l o w e d t o assess the value o f immature stands (when market value i s not a v a i l a b l e ) . F i r s t , from the s e l l e r viewpoint, the c o s t value approach may be s e l -e c t e d . The purpose of t h i s method i s t o determine the present worth of the expenditures t h a t o c c u r r e d s i n c e the e s t a b l i s h -ment of the stand ( i . e . c o s t o f l a n d , p l a n t a t i o n c o s t , annual c o s t s o f p r o d u c t i o n and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , e t c . ) . The c o s t value i s p e r c e i v e d as the maximum s e l l i n g p r i c e from the s e l l e r ' s viewpoint. In the event o f revenues a c c r u i n g t o the owner from commercial t h i n n i n g f o r example, these should be i n c l u d e d t o determine the net c o s t v a l u e . Second, from the buyer's p e r s p e c t i v e , the income value method may be undertaken. I t r e p r e s e n t s the presen t value o f fu t u r e r e c e i p t s (e.g. land v a l u e , timber value) and expend i t -ures. From the buyer viewpoint the income value i n d i c a t e s the maximum amount of money he w i l l forego t o a c q u i r e the immature f o r e s t . 137 The d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f c o s t value and income value i n v o l v e s d i f f e r e n t c a l c u l a t i o n s . However, i f assumptions are the same i n both cases, c o s t and income values are equated by the c o n n e c t i n g l i n k p r o v i d e d by l a n d value (Davis, 1966). Mature F o r e s t The value o f a mature f o r e s t i s the combination of the value o f timber - the stumpage value - and the value of l a n d , as determined i n the case o f bare land. A l l the above c a l c u l a t i o n s i n v o l v e long d i s c o u n t i n g p e r i o d s o f time, t y p i c a l l y 80 t o 100 years f o r the r o t a t i o n p e r i o d . As a r e s u l t , the v a r i a b l e s e n t e r i n g the c a l c u l a t i o n are very s e n s i t i v e , and a s l i g h t change i n t h e i r value may l e a d t o an important d i f f e r e n c e i n the r e s u l t . Furthermore, the e s t i - • mation of f o r e s t l a n d value i s an approximation. The u n a v a i l -a b i l i t y o f market value i n open competition which i s the b e s t i n d i c a t o r induces the adoption of t h i s a n a l y t i c a l approach. Moreover, the value d e r i v e d from t h i s approach i s underestimated, because the stumpage a p p r a i s a l i s performed w i t h r e s p e c t t o the o p e r a t o r o f average e f f i c i e n c y . Under c o n d i t i o n s o f open com p e t i t i o n , the s u c c e s s f u l b i d d e r would r e a l i z e the h i g h e s t r e t u r n from timber, t h e r e f o r e e n s u r i n g the owner of the resource to o b t a i n the maximum p o s s i b l e p r i c e . 138 B.C. HYDRO'S ASSESSMENT ASSUMPTIONS AND MEASUREMENTS B i o - p h y s i c a l A r o t a t i o n age of 100 years was s e l e c t e d , w i t h a weighed average growth r a t e o f 2.90 m3/ha/year. The annual a l l o w a b l e cut was d e r i v e d from the Han z l i k formula, a c c o u n t i n g f o r 20,400 m3/year. The Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area i n c l u d e s 7,021 ha o f f o r e s t l a n d d i s t r i b u t e d as f o l l o w s : Economic Values are expressed i n 1975 d o l l a r s . Stumpage value f o r sawlogs i s an average f o r the Revel-stoke area over a two year p e r i o d (1974-1975). As a r e s u l t o f poor market c o n d i t i o n s i n 1974-1975, p u l p l o g stumpage value i s set at a nominal p r i c e o f $0.70/m3. Future h a r v e s t , r e s u l t i n g from second growth i s assumed t o be f o r sawlog. Present c o n d i t i o n s o f f o r e s t management i n t e n s i t y assumed t o remain unchanged and most l i k e l y value o f f o r e s t resource i n v o l v e s no i n c r e a s e ' i n the f u t u r e . (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1975) RESULTS OF REID, COLLINS AND ASSOCIATES' ANALYSIS Reid, C o l l i n s and A s s o c i a t e s was h i r e d by B.C. Hydro t o evalu a t e the f o r e s t r y impacts o f Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t . R e s u l t s of the f o r e s t r y c o n s u l t a n t are shown i n a d i f f e r e n t format than the model o u t l i n e d i n F i g u r e 15. The f o l l o w i n g r e s u l t s are - Logged (bare land) - Immature - Merchantable immature - Mature 33. 4% 15. 7% 3.1% 47.8% (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc 1975) 139 t h e r e f o r e p r e s e n t e d t o be i n c o n f o r m i t y w i t h t h e a n a l y t i c a l framework o f t h i s s t u d y . Bare Land To c a l c u l a t e the l a n d v a l u e o f the l o g g e d a r e a , R e i d , C o l l i n s and A s s o c . (1975) a p p l i e d the mean annual i n c r e m e n t 3 3 (2.90 m /ha/y) t o t h e stumpage v a l u e o f sawlogs ($2.83/m ) on t h e l o g g e d a r e a o f 2,347 ha. The c a p i t a l v a l u e o f the l a n d , d i s c o u n t e d a t a r a t e o f 10 p e r c e n t , a c c o u n t e d f o r $192,400. T a k i n g the mean annual i n c r e m e n t (MAI) i n s t e a d o f the a l l o w a b l e c u t (AAC), as s u g g e s t e d p r e v i o u s l y , may u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e l a n d v a l u e . The " w i t h - w i t h o u t " ^ c r i t e r i o n o f t h e b e n e f i t -c o s t a n a l y s i s l e a d s t o b e l i e v e t h a t u s i n g the AAC may be more a p p r o p r i a t e t h a n the MAI. W i t h o u t t h e dam, the f o r e s t l a n d i n t h e f l o o d i n g a r e a c o n t r i b u t e s t o the t i m b e r h a r v e s t i n terms o f i t s AAC. Even though i n the l o n g - r u n , i . e . a f t e r the d e p l e t i o n o f the o l d - g r o w t h t i m b e r , AAC and MAI w i l l r e p r e s e n t t h e same v a l u e , t h i s i s n o t l i k e l y t h e case f o r the n e x t 75 to; = 100 y e a r s . T h i s remark i s b r o u g h t up t o be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the model o u t l i n e d p r e v i o u s l y w i t h i n t h e b e n e f i t c o s t a n a l y s i s framework. In p r a c t i c a l t erms, however, i t does n o t s i g n i f y a n o t i c e a b l e d i f f e r e n c e i n the r e s u l t s . I t i s e x p l a i n e d by the c a l c u l a t i o n o f the AAC which a c c o u n t s f o r a 20 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n t o c o v e r v a r i o u s a r e a e x c l u s i o n such as r o a d s , f i r e s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e s e r v e s , e t c . 140 Immature F o r e s t s The value o f immature timber and l a n d base were assessed s e p a r a t e l y . Land e v a l u a t i o n f o l l o w e d the same approach as i n the case o f bare l a n d , a c c o u n t i n g f o r $82,900 a p p l i e d on an area o f 1,101 ha. The c o s t value i s determined by the p l a n t i n g c o s t of $123.50/ha. As a r e s u l t of the n a t u r a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t of the f o r e s t , t h i s may r e p r e s e n t an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . The income value i s c a l c u l a t e d from the stumpage value at r o t a t i o n ($8.20/ha). The l i n k between c o s t and income value i s d e t e r -mined by f i n d i n g the d i s c o u n t r a t e the p l a n t i n g c o s t would earn to equal the f i n a l crop value at r o t a t i o n ( i . e . f i n d " i " f o r : $123.50 x ( 1 + i ) 1 0 0 = $820). Thus, the d i s c o u n t r a t e i s approximately equal t o 2 p e r c e n t . The present value o f immature timber of age "n" i s t h e r e f o r e equal to 123.50 x (1.02) n. The value of the immature timber and the l a n d i s approximately $337,000 (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) a r r i v e d t o $338,300, r e s u l t i n g from u s i n g i m p e r i a l measures). Davis (1966) argued t h a t l a n d and immature timber values should be c a l c u l a t e d t o g e t h e r . I t i m p l i e s t h a t the l a n d value ($82/ha) has t o be added to the p l a n t i n g c o s t , and to the stump-age. T h i s t r a n s f o r m a t i o n r e s u l t s i n a change of the i n t e r e s t r a t e from 2 p e r c e n t t o 1.5 p e r c e n t , and to a t o t a l value of the immature f o r e s t i n c r e a s e d to $357,000. Here again the d i f f e r -ence i s not s i g n i f i c a n t . However, t o be c o n s i s t e n t with the g e n e r a l approach to f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n , l a n d value should be i n c l u d e d as a necessary c o s t of growing timber, as defended on a t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s by v a r i o u s resource economists (Haley, 141 (1966), Howe (1979), and Pearse (1967), f o r example). Mature F o r e s t Mature f o r e s t value was c a l c u l a t e d by R e i d , / C o l l i n s and Assoc. (19 75) because 40 percent of p u l p l o g s and 10 percent of sawlogs were expected t o be l o s t t o f l o o d i n g as a r e s u l t of market c o n d i t i o n s and c l e a r i n g procedures. T h i s value i s not c o n s i d e r e d here but i s l e f t t o the next chapter, which s p e c i f i -c a l l y addresses the q u e s t i o n of r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g . Land value i s t h e r e f o r e the o n l y element c o n s i d e r e d here, accounting f o r approximately $29 3,000. Immature merchantable timber are i n c l u d e d i n t h i s e v a l u a t i o n . The t o t a l f o r e s t l a n d value a f t e r s u b t r a c t i n g the non-r e c o v e r a b l e mature timber, as c a l c u l a t e d by Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) i s t h e r e f o r e on the order of $830,000 at a d i s c o u n t r a t e of 10 p e r c e n t i n 1975 d o l l a r s . BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS INTERPRETATION The f o r e s t land e v a l u a t i o n of the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s r e l i e d on data p r o v i d e d by Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (19 75). However, i t adopted a viewpoint l e a d i n g to d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s . The o b j e c t i v e of the b e n e f i t c o s t a n a l y s i s w i t h r e s p e c t to f o r -e s t r y was to estimate the p r e s e n t value (19 75) o f reduced incomes t o the p r o v i n c e to year 2050. As a r e s u l t o f f l o o d i n g o c c u r i n g i n 19 82, the l o s s e s were c a l c u l a t e d from t h a t year f o r the f o l l o w i n g 6 8 years. These assumptions have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on the v a l u a t i o n of the l a n d and the immature timber. 142 Land Value At a 10 percent d i s c o u n t r a t e , Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) c a l c u l a t e d a l a n d value o f $574,320 i n 1975 d o l l a r s . Reid (1976), i n the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s , determined a value of $430,000 i n 1975 d o l l a r s , at 10 percent d i s c o u n t r a t e , f o r l o s s e s o c c u r r i n g from 1982 t o the year 2050. T h i s appears to be a p p r o p r i a t e , when adopting the "with-without" c r i t e r i o n as a r e f e r e n c e p o i n t . The 75 year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d may be debat-able (CIF, 1976), however, the change i n value from expanding t h i s p e r i o d bears l i t t l e s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r i t s p r e s e n t value at such a h i g h d i s c o u n t r a t e . Immature Timber The immature timber value c a l c u l a t e d at $255,400 by Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) was i g n o r e d i n the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s . The a n a l y s i s f o l l o w e d an income value approach, without seeking t o " . . . take p a s t investments i n p l a n t a t i o n s e x p l i c i t l y i n t o account, The approach c o n c e n t r a t e s s o l e l y on r e d u c t i o n s to f u t u r e incomes to the p r o v i n c e " (B.C. Hydro, 1976). E x c l u d i n g immature timber from the c a l c u l a t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t f o r e s t l a n d value i s equal to l a n d value u n t i l i t reaches r o t a t i o n age. T h e r e f o r e , n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g p a s t expenditures on p l a n t i n g , i t i s assumed t h a t the c o s t o f the time i t took t o grow the t i m -ber i s zero. F o r e s t Land Value A p p r e c i a t i o n B.C. Hydro's b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s suggested t h a t the "most l i k e l y case" o f f o r e s t resource value f o r e c a s t e d would not i n v o l v e t e c h n o l o g i c a l improvements - i . e . r e l a t i v e d e c l i n e 143 i n the o p e r a t i n g c o s t s - or e s c a l a t i o n i n stumpage value r a t e s (Reid, 1976). P r e d i c t i o n i n f u t u r e timber supply and demand r e l a t i o n s h i p and the e f f e c t s of p o t e n t i a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l pro-gress bears an important element of u n c e r t a i n t y . However, i n order to apply the with-without c r i t e r i o n , trends of changes i n f o r e s t resource development must be c o n s i d e r e d . H i s t o r i c a l trends show t h a t stumpage p r i c e has been i n c r e a s i n g at an annual r a t e of 2.5 percent i n . t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s (Hyde, 1980). However, i n B r i t i s h Columbia the stumpage value , i n constant d o l l a r s , has s l i g h t l y decreased over the 1963-1978 p e r i o d (Haley, 1980). The e v o l u t i o n of stumpage value i n the Nelson D i s t r i c t ( i . e . the Kootenays) over the 1964-1978 p e r i o d shows a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e over the g e n e r a l wholesale index r a t e of 0.6 percent a n n u a l l y , as i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 16. R e l y i n g o n l y on these c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , i t i s reasonable to suggest t h a t the most l i k e l y case development s c e n a r i o i s s t a t i o n a r y . However, at l e a s t three important p o i n t s have t o be r a i s e d here. F i r s t , i t i s assumed t h a t stumpage value r e p r e s e n t s the f u l l amount o f the economic r e n t a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the timber resource. Without e n t e r i n g the debate on t h i s c o n t r o v e r s i a l q u e s t i o n , i t i s s u f f i c i e n t t o p o i n t out t h a t the absence of competitive market f o r stumpage, as i s the case i n B r i t i s h Columbia, may r e s u l t i n an underestimation of the f u l l value of the resource (Haley, 1980). S i m i l a r l y , i t may l e a d to an erroneous f o r e c a s t i n g of resource a p p r e c i a t i o n . 144 Second, a r e c e n t a n a l y s i s o f the s i t u a t i o n o f t i m b e r s u p p l y p r e d i c t s t i m b e r s h o r t a g e s i n t h e R e v e l s t o k e a r e a w i t h i n t h e n e x t t e n y e a r s ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , 1980). S i m i l a r l y , r i s i n g w o r l d demand i s p r e d i c t e d t o be g r e a t e r t h a n the s u p p l y o f t i m b e r by the t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y . T h e r e f o r e i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t f o r e s t r e s o u r c e v a l u e w i l l i n c r e a s e . Moreover, as t h e o l d - g r o w t h s t o c k t i m b e r has been drawn down ov e r t i m e , "... r e l a t i v e t i m b e r p r i c e (stumpage) has r i s e n , much as p r i c e s r i s e w i t h t h e slow d e p l e t i o n o f a mine t h a t p r o v i d e s a l a r g e market share o f some g i v e n m i n e r a l . Even-t u a l l y t h i s s t o c k w i l l be e x h a u s t e d , a l l t i m b e r h a r v e s t e d w i l l be the r e s u l t o f a renewable p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s , and the r a t e o f p r i c e i n c r e a s e w i l l drop t o z e r o . U n t i l t h e n , we e x p e c t r e l a t i v e stumpage p r i c e s t o c o n t i n u e r i s i n g . " (Hyde, 1980, p. 201) To d e s i g n v a r i o u s development s c e n a r i o s and i n c l u d e them i n the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s may h e l p t o cope w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y . F o r example, R e i d (19 76) shows t h a t , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s c e n a r i o c o n s i d e r e d , the p e r c e n t a g e o f f o r e s t r y v a l u e s foregone may range from 74 t o 140 p e r c e n t o f t h e "most l i k e l y case" ( R e i d , 1976, T a b l e 2-13). ASSUMPTIONS, DATA BASE AND THEIR EFFECTS ON EVALUATION The i n t e n t o f the p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n was t o examine the s t e p s f o l l o w e d by B.C. Hydro t o e v a l u a t e the f o r e s t l a n d . T h i s s e c t i o n f o c u s s e s on the b a s i c assumptions p r o v i d e d f o r d a t a a n a l y s i s and t h e e f f e c t s on e v a l u a t i o n . 145 w < > < Pn £ D EH LO Figure 16 . Average stumpage p r i c e s i n 1964 d o l l a r s f o r timber s o l d on Crown lands i n the Nelson d i s t r i c t , 1 9 6 4 - 1 9 7 9 * 3 . 0 0 2 . 5 0 E 2 . 0 0 1 . 5 0 1. 00 0 . 5 0 Least square method regression curve log Y = . 0 0 2 7 3 ( X - 1 9 7 1 . 5 ) + .065 1963 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 YEARS * Source: M i n i s t r y of Forests Annual Reports (1964-1979) ( 146 BIO-PHYSICAL ASSUMPTIONS The impact on timber supply o u t l i n e d i n Chapter I I (see Fi g u r e 5) i n d i c a t e s t h a t the area withdrawn from timber pro-d u c t i o n i s g r e a t e r than the f l o o d e d f o r e s t land. However, t o avo i d f a c i n g u n c e r t a i n t y i n the de t e r m i n a t i o n o f an accurate f o r e s t l a n d base, the area d e l i n e a t e d i s l i m i t e d t o the r e s -e r v o i r . A c c o r d i n g l y , the f o r e s t l a n d area accounts f o r 7,350 ha: the f o r e s t land area from Reid C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) and Highway #23 rig h t s - o f - w a y . Recognizing t h a t the a n a l y s i s must be performed with s i t e s p e c i f i c data, r o t a t i o n age and mean annual increment were d e r i v e d from e m p i r i c a l data. The procedure encompasses the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f the area, age, and f o r e s t type o f immature stands from f o r e s t cover maps; Then with e m p i r i c a l l y d e r i v e d volume-age curves, a volume-age r e l a t i o n s h i p i s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r the immature f o r e s t , f o l l o w i n g the gen e r a l e q u a t i o n : V = b ( l - e b 2 ( A g e ~ A9 e0>) b 3 where "V" i s the timber volume, "B 1", "b 2", "b 3" c o n s t a n t s , and "Age-AgeQ11 the age o f the immature f o r e s t minus a constant. Table 6 shows the r e s u l t s , and F i g u r e 17 i l l u s t r a t e s the l o g -i s t i c curve o f volume-age r e l a t i o n s h i p . The r o t a t i o n age i s determined by the age maximizing the volume over age r a t i o . A n a l y t i c a l l y i t corresponds t o 80 years. I t may a l s o be found g r a p h i c a l l y , as d e p i c t e d by Fi g u r e 17. The corresponding mean annual increment ( i . e . maximum volume over age value) i s equal t o 3.6 3 m /ha/year. Th 147 i s a s i g n i f i c a n t departure from Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) r e s u l t s . I t may be e x p l a i n e d by t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n o f a nominal r o t a t i o n age of 100 years. The immature volume at c u l m i n a t i o n age however, i s the same i n Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (19 75) 3 a n a l y s i s and i n t h i s study ( i . e . 290 m /ha). Depleting.overmature volume on 80 yea r s , i n s t e a d o f 100 year s , and c o n s i d e r i n g a mean annual growth o f immature stands 3 3 of 3.6 3 m /ha/year i n s t e a d o f 2.90 m /ha/year, r e s u l t s i n an al l o w a b l e cut i n c r e a s e d by approximately 30 per c e n t . ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Fi g u r e 16 shows t h a t stumpage val u e s experience wide f l u c t u a t i o n s over the years. I t can be observed t h a t c y c l e s o f good and bad markets vary from three t o s i x years. T h e r e f o r e , t o o b t a i n an average stumpage value f o r a given year, obser-v a t i o n s should be made over s e v e r a l y e a r s . F i g u r e 19 i l l u s -t r a t e s the e v o l u t i o n o f average stumpage val u e s over the p e r i o d 1964-1979, weighed on the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f mature volume of sp e c i e s l o c a t e d i n the r e s e r v o i r area. The r e g r e s s i o n curve d e r i v e d from the l e a s t square method, i n d i c a t e s a h i g h e r value from the average o f years 1974-1975 3 ($1.16/m ), by approximately 54 per c e n t . The value d e r i v e d from the r e g r e s s i o n curve c o u l d be used as the stumpage value a t Revelstoke. The r e l a t i v e l y easy access i n the Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area, however, suggests t h a t stumpage val u e s are h i g h e r than the r e g i o n a l average. Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) i n d i c a t e d t h a t 148 3 $2.83/m was the average sawlog value at Revelstoke i n 1974-75, accounting f o r 55 percent o f the timber volume. A p p l y i n g the minimum stumpage r a t e f o r the remaining 45 per c e n t o f p u l p l o g s , as a r e s u l t o f bad market f o r the product, the l o c a l 3 weighed stumpage i s e v a l u a t e d at $1.73/m . T h i s 49 percent d i f f e r e n c e with the r e g i o n a l average c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t l o c a l stumpage valu e s ought t o be co n s i d e r e d i n the c a l c u l a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , stumpage i n d i c a t i n g f o r e s t land value should be c a l c u l a t e d l o c a l l y , t a k i n g i n t o account s e v e r a l years t o i n t e r p o l a t e the average. Using Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) 3 r e s u l t o f $2.83/m , as value o f second-growth timber, and the 1.5 4 f a c t o r a c c o u n t i n g f o r a more accurate average stumpage 3 v a l u e , $4.36/m may re p r e s e n t the best a v a i l a b l e value. EFFECTS OF EVALUATION The combination o f a g r e a t e r stumpage value and a high e r annual a l l o w a b l e cut has a m u l t i p l i c a t i v e e f f e c t on the r e s u l t s of f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n . The land v a l u e , f o r example, can be e v a l u a t e d at $165/ha (1975 d o l l a r s a t 10% d i s c o u n t r a t e ) , compared t o the $82/ha o f B.C. Hydro's e v a l u a t i o n . As F i g u r e 18 i l l u s t r a t e s , f a i l u r e t o s e t the r o t a t i o n at the c u l m i n a t i o n age of immature stands, underestimates the p o t e n t i a l annual income i n stumpage revenue. Adjustment t o the pr e v i o u s a n a l y s i s has a s i m i l a r e f f e c t on the c a l c u l a t i o n o f immature timber value. AGE (Yrs) VOLUME (m3/ha) VOLUME/AGE (m 3/ha/year) AVERAGE STUMPAGE VALUE ($/m 3/ha/year) 1 MARGINAL STUMPAGE VALUE ($/m 3/ha/year) 30 58.1 1. 94 8.46 40 106.0 2.65 11.55 20.88 50 155.3 3. 11 13.56 21.50 60 204.0 3. 40 14. 82 21.23 70 249. 8 3.57 15.5 7 19. 97 80 290. 1 3.63 15. 83 17.57 90 325.6 3.62 15. 78 15. 48 100 356.4 3.56 15.52 13. 43 110 383. 1 3. 48 15. 17 11.64 120 406.5 3. 39 14. 78 10.20 130 427. 3 3.29 14.34 9.07 140 445. 8 3. 18 13. 86 8.07 150 462. 7 3.08 13.43 7. 37 160 478.2 2.99 13.04 6. 76 170 492.4 2. 90 12.64 6.19 Stumpage Value assumed t o be independent from age of timber, constant at 4.36/m3 (1975) * Source: TFL #23 f o r e s t cover maps (1974 i n v e n t o r y ) , Arrowhead PSYU f o r e s t cover maps, M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s Annual Reports (1964-1979) and Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975). Table 6. Volume-age r e l a t i o n s h i p and stumpage value f o r Revelstoke Dam Rese r v o i r area* 150 F i g u r e 17. Volume-age r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r R e v e l s t o k e Dam R e s e r v o i r immature • f o r e s t a r e a * 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 AGE (years) F i g u r e 18. Average and m a r g i n a l stumpage v a l u e d e r i v e d from volume-age r e l a t i o n s h i p 22 AGE (years) F i g u r e 19: Average weighed stumpage p r i c e f o r mature t i m b e r i n t h e R e v e l s t o k e Dam R e s e r v o i r a r e a (1964-1979)* 152 MARKET VALUE As o u t l i n e d p r e v i o u s l y i n t h i s study, stumpage value a c t s o n l y as an i n d i c a t o r of the economic r e n t of the f o r e s t r e s o u r c e . However, when a v a i l a b l e , market value under open competition i s the most accurate i n d i c a t o r . In the Revelstoke area c u t t i n g permits were s o l d from TFL #2 3 t o Downie S t r e e t Sawmills i n 1977. Although t h i s t r a n s a c t i o n d i d not meet the c o n d i t i o n s o f open c o m p e t i t i o n , i t o f f e r e d some i n d i c a t i o n o f the p r i c e of timber. C u t t i n g r i g h t s f o r a p e r i o d of 12 y e a r s , i n v o l v i n g 141,600 m of timber h a r v e s t e d each year were a c q u i r e d by Downie S t r e e t Sawmills o f $6.3 m i l l i o n (Mels, 1980). Discounted at 10 p e r c e n t , 3 and expressed i n 1975 d o l l a r s , i t r e p r e s e n t s a value of $5.40/m . S i m i l a r l y , on Timber Berth #74, a f o r e s t tenure from which there i s no stumpage a p p r a i s a l , the d e l i v e r e d net value ( s e l l i n g p r i c e 3 l e s s d e l i v e r y costs) accounted f o r an average of $5.6 3/m over the J u l y 1975 t o June 1976 p e r i o d (Evans Products, 1976). These r e s u l t s may i n d i c a t e t h a t stumpage value does not capture the f u l l economic r e n t o f the f o r e s t resource. However, there are too many unknown f a c t o r s t o support t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n more 3 v i g o r o u s l y . Nonetheless, i t i s suggested t h a t the $4.36/m value c a l c u l a t e d p r e v i o u s l y i s a good e s t i m a t i o n . INTENSITY OF FOREST MANAGEMENT The u n c e r t a i n t y r e l a t e d t o f o r e s t resource development i s mostly r e l a t e d to the demand s i d e of the timber supply and demand model. Demand determinant f a c t o r s are e x t e r n a l to the system 15 3 and widely f l u c t u a t i n g over a s h o r t p e r i o d of time. On the c o n t r a r y , supply determinant f a c t o r s are i n t e r n a l , and changing over the long term. Development s c e n a r i o s of f o r e s t resource a p p r e c i a t i o n o t l i n e d by Reid (19 76) i n c l u d e v a r i a b l e s on the demand s i d e o n l y , namely: stumpage v a l u e , o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , and c a p i t a l c o s t t o develop access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . I t i s assumed t h a t the i n t e n s i t y of management w i l l remain at the same l e v e l , without improvement o f the timber supply. However, i t was o u t l i n e d i n chapter two t h a t the l e v e l of u t i l i z a t i o n o f the timber resource and i n t e n s i t y of s i l v i c u l t u r a l treatments w i l l l i k e l y i n c r e a s e i n the f u t u r e . Furthermore, i t was argued t h a t the best f o r e s t s i t e s e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e , such as the R e v e l -stoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area, were the f i r s t c o n s i d e r e d f o r i n t e n -s i v e f o r e s t management. L e v e l o f U t i l i z a t i o n I t was argued t h a t c u r r e n t timber h a r v e s t p r a c t i c e s e x t r a c t only a f r a c t i o n o f the s t a n d i n g biomass. Table 2 i l l u s t r a t e s t h a t the a l l o w a b l e cut may remain c l o s e to p r e s e n t l e v e l a f t e r the d e p l e t i o n o f the old-growth timber i f standards o f u t i l i -z a t i o n move from 17.5 cm t o 12.5 cm as the minimum diameter of h a r v e s t a b l e timber. Along with a g r e a t e r e x t r a c t i o n o f wood f i b r e , p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s w i l l l i k e l y improve t h e i r p r o d u c t i v i t y . For example, Downie S t r e e t Sawmills i s c u r r e n t l y undertaking an expansion o f i t s storage area, and adding f a c i l i t i e s t o permit h a n d l i n g a g r e a t e r v a r i e t y of grade and l o g s i z e s (Mels, 1980). F u r t h e r -154 more, Canadian C e l l u l o s e i s undertaking steps to expand the c a p a c i t y of i t s p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t i n C a s t l e g a r i n order to handle the r e g i o n ' s p u l p l o g s u r p l u s (Thorp, 1980). S i 1 v i c u l t u r e In the i n i t i a l study of Revelstoke Dam, i t was suggested t h a t : "... from a s i l v i c u l t u r a l p o i n t of view, the take area ( r e s e r v o i r area) would be a p r e f e r r a b l e area f o r p l a n t i n g and other i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t r y p r a c t i c e s , compared to the lower s i t e h i g h e r e l e v a t i o n f o r e s t s . " (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1975, p. 23) F i g u r e 11 shows t h a t improvement of p r o d u c t i v i t y from s i l v i c u l t u r a l treatment may be s u b s t a n t i a l . The g a i n of wood f i b r e r e s u l t i n g from p l a n t i n g , f e r t i l i z i n g and t h i n n i n g may reach 91 percent on medium s i t e s . There are, however, o u t s t a n d i n g problems p r e v e n t i n g the implementation of l a r g e s c a l e s i l v i c u l t u r e programs i n the Kootenays. These i n c l u d e a s c a r c i t y of t r a i n e d people, l a c k of r e g e n e r a t i o n surveys, l a c k o f s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n , and l a c k of l o c a l n u r s e r i e s of a s u f f i c i e n t s c a l e t o meet r e g i o n a l needs. P r o v i n c i a l funding f o r s i l v i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s was approximately $0.41 per c u b i c meter of wood har v e s t e d i n the 1977-1980 p e r i o d . For these reasons, p l a n t i n g and s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n accounted f o r only 27 and 16 percent of the area h a r v e s t e d i n the 1974-78 p e r i o d ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1980). However, i n the f i v e - y e a r f o r e s t resource program, i t i s planned t o i n c r e a s e by 66 and 69 percent p l a n t i n g and s i t e p r e p a r a t i o n over the 1979-84 p e r i o d on the p r o v i n c i a l s c a l e X 155 and the f o r e c a s t e d expenditure on i n t e n s i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e , w i l l i n c r e a s e by 69 percent ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , 1980b). Therefore i t may be suggested t h a t the Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area would have experienced a h i g h e r l e v e l o f s i l v i c u l t u r a l treatment i n the f u t u r e , as a r e s u l t of i t s a c c e s s i b i l i t y , f o r e s t s i t e q u a l i t y , and s i l v i c u l t u r e programs of the M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s . In c o n c l u s i o n , the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s appears t o be a s u i t a b l e framework f o r f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n , p r o v i d i n g t h a t the f o l l o w i n g c o n d i t i o n s are met: use s i t e s p e c i f i c data f o r the c a l c u l a t i o n of the mean annual increment, r o t a t i o n age, and stumpage value, determine the average stumpage value over a p e r i o d of s e v e r a l years (e.g. 15 y e a r s ) , - c o n s i d e r market value o f f o r e s t l a n d , i f a v a i l a b l e , i n order t o t e s t the assumption t h a t stumpage value r e f l e c t s the f u l l amount o f economic r e n t a t t r i b u t a b l e t o timber resou r c e , e s t a b l i s h a f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n framework t o be f o l l o w e d throughout the a n a l y s i s , take i n t o account f o r e s t resource value a p p r e c i a t i o n by: i ) a p p l y i n g development s c e n a r i o s on stumpage value and t e c h n o l o g i c a l changes, and, i i ) p r e d i c t i n g the i n t e n s i t y of f o r e s t management, determine the l e v e l o f compensation from the f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n i n conformity with the Pareto c r i t e r i o n t o : i ) i n c r e a s e the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the f o r e s t l a n d through an i n t e n s i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e program (BCFS, 1976), and, i i ) a c q u i r e Crown a l i e n a t e d lands which are c r i t i c a l t o i n t e g r a t e d management of adjacent Crown lands (Farquharson, 1974). F o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n i s necessary, i n o r d e r t o s e t the value of the resource o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t t o the p r o v i n c e . I t may a l s o p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n f o r e v a l u a t i o n o f the r e g i o n a l impact. The annual a l l o w a b l e c u t , c a l c u l a t e d i n the f o r e s t l a n d e v a l u a t i o n may be used as an i n d i c a t o r f o r employment afid value added. For i n s t a n c e , two r e c e n t s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t the average t o t a l employment per hectare o f mature timber i n the i n t e r i o r of the pro v i n c e r e p r e s e n t s 0.96 man years (Canfor, 1981), and t h a t i n 1979 each f u l l time job supported by the timber i n d u s t r y r e q u i r e d on the p r o v i n c i a l average, 3 about 500 m of wood (Smith, 1981). A p p l i e d t o the Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area, both s t u d i e s come to the same r e s u l t of 4 0 jobs u s i n g Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975) data (55 jobs when redu c i n g the r o t a t i o n age from 100 to 80 y e a r s ) . The 20 jobs c a l c u l a t e d by B.C. Hydro (1976a) reduced to 10 i n the b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s (Reid, 1976) suggests t h a t f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h should be undertaken a t the r e g i o n a l l e v e l t o f u l l y a p p r e c i a t e the extent o f the impacts on forestry. Moreover, i t must be emphasized t h a t f o r e s t l a n d economic v a l u e , as c a l c u l a t e d here, i s underestimated as a r e s u l t of the "non-e f f i c i e n t " maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d p o l i c y and the stumpage v a l u e r s an i n d i c a t o r o f the average p r i c e o f the timber r e s o u r c e . The f i f t y p e r cent u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n B.C. Hydro's r e s u l t s when com-pared t o those of t h i s study shows t h a t b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s i s extremely s e n s i t i v e to changes i n approach and assumptions. One might hypothesize t h a t even g i v e n the c u r r e n t s t a t e o f the a r t of b e n e f i t -c o s t a n a l y s i s , a more a c c u r a t e accounting of oth e r resource values (some of which are d i f f i c u l t to assess i s p u r e l y economic terms) might l e a d t o r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t c o n c l u s i o n s i n terms o f the b e n e f i t c o s t r a t i o and perhaps the d e c i s i o n i t s e l f . 157 CHAPTER V RESERVOIR CLEARING RESERVOIR CLEARING PROCESS R e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g i n v o l v e s a d i f f e r e n t type of impact on f o r e s t r y than those d e s c r i b e d i n the other c h a p t e r s . Res-e r v o i r c l e a r i n g may be taken as a component of hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . The impact occurs on the short-term - f o u r to ten years - and, when adequately performed, c l e a r i n g bears no r e p e r c u s s i o n s a f t e r f l o o d i n g . However, i t was s e l e c t e d as a f o r e s t r y impact because c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s : (1) r e q u i r e a s s i s t a n c e from f o r e s t companies and the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , (2) i t n e c e s s i t a t e s an o r d e r l y removal of timber i n order to salvage the merchantable volume, and (3) i t i s a t r a n s i t i o n phase from p r i o r t o post f l o o d i n g l o g g i n g p a t t e r n s . Moreover, the magnitude o f t h i s impact may be important i f o p e r a t i o n s are not e f f i c i e n t l y c o - o r d i n a t e d among B.C. Hydro, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the f o r e s t companies. T h i s may r e s u l t i n a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n c l e a r i n g c o s t s , a waste of timber resources and d e b r i s problems on the r e s e r v o i r . 158 C l e a r i n g s t r a t e g i e s have e v o l v e d s i n c e the b u i l d i n g o f e a r l y dams. Of t h e f i f t e e n l a r g e s t dams i n B r i t i s h Columbia (over 100 megawatts o f i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o r o f s i g n i f i c a n t s t o r a g e f a c i l i t y ) , e i g h t were c o m p l e t e l y c l e a r e d from f u l l r e s e r v o i r t o n a v i g a t i o n c l e a r a n c e l e v e l . Among t h e r e m a i n i n g s i x r e s e r v o i r a r e a s n ot c l e a r e d p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g , t h r e e were c o m p l e t e l y c l e a r e d upon drawdown o f the r e s e r v o i r , two were p a r t i a l l y c l e a r e d ( p e r i m e t e r c l e a r i n g , and t o a few k i l o m e t e r s above the dam), and two were u n d e r t a k i n g underwater c u t t i n g o f some merc h a n t a b l e t i m b e r ( E f f o r d , 1975). P r i o r t o t h e 1960's B r i l l a n t (205 ha o f land'" f l o o d e d ) and Waneta (75 ha o f f l o o d e d land) were t h e l a r g e s t dams i n t he Kootenays. The c l e a r i n g o f t h e s e r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l r e s e r v o i r a r e a s was completed p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g ( E f f o r d , 197 5 ) . However, t h e r e q u i r e m e n t o f the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y t o f l o o d s i g n i f i c a n t a r e a s i n a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t p e r i o d o f t i m e r a i s e d some f o r e s t r y problems. These a r e r e l a t e d t o : (1) removal o f m e r c h a n t a b l e t i m b e r , (2) c l e a r i n g p e r i o d and s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , (3) d e b r i s d i s p o s a l and t i m b e r s a l v a g e , (4) r e s p o n s i b l e a u t h o r i t y f o r t h e c l e a r i n g program, (5) u t i l i z a t i o n o f d e b r i s f o r energy p r o d u c t i o n . ' B e f o r e a d d r e s s i n g t h e s e i s s u e s , t h e c l e a r i n g method,.as i t was i n i t i a l l y p e rformed i n the case o f M i c a Dam and improved f o r R e v e l s t o k e Dam, i s d e s c r i b e d . 159 CLEARING METHOD  Zones The c l e a r i n g method c u r r e n t l y i n p r a c t i c e r e q u i r e s the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f four zones w i t h i n the r e s e r v o i r area i n which s p e c i f i c c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s are undertaken. They are d e l i n e a t e d by the f u l l r e s e r v o i r e l e v a t i o n , normal drawdown l e v e l , c l e a r a n c e f o r n a v i g a t i o n l e v e l and average t r e e h e i g h t under n a v i g a t i o n c l e a r a n c e l e v e l (see F i g u r e 20). The f i r s t zone i s l o c a t e d i n the range of normal f l u c t u -a t i o n of the r e s e r v o i r . Under normal hydro-dam o p e r a t i o n s , the r e s e r v o i r reaches f u l l e l e v a t i o n i n August-September, wi t h drawdown l e v e l o c c u r r i n g i n April-May before the s p r i n g r u n - o f f . R e s e r v o i r s may f l u c t u a t e from a few meters f o r " r u n - 6 f - t h e - r i v e r " type dams to over 25 meters i n the case of storage dams. The second zone is" comprised o f an area of 6 t o 8 meters t o p e rmit c l e a r a n c e f o r n a v i g a t i o n . The e x p e c t a t i o n f o r b o a t i n g on the r e s e r v o i r and water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n e c e s s i -t a t e d the e x t e n s i o n of t o t a l c l e a r i n g t o t h i s zone. The t h i r d zone corresponds to the average t r e e h e i g h t under the n a v i g a t i o n c l e a r a n c e l e v e l . T h i s zone, which may encompass 45 meters f o r a mature stand i n the Kootenays, i s d e s i g n a t e d so t h a t no t r e e tops would protrude above the n a v i a g t i o n c l e a r a n c e e l e v a t i o n . The f o u r t h zone i s l o c a t e d under the p r e v i o u s zone and does not o f f e r problems f o r n a v i g a t i o n . The c l e a r i n g Ffigure 20. Schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of - r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g . * Zones 1: T o t a l c l e a r i n g . Stump h e i g h t not exceeding 30 cm. 2: Merchantable t r e e s f e l l e d and removed. R e s i d u a l t r e e s and woody m a t e r i a l disposed of where t e r r a i n permits the use of mechanical equipment. Stump he i g h t not exceeding 30 cm. 3: Removal of a l l t r e e s whose tops protrude above c l e a r a n c e f o r n a v i g a t i o n e l e v a t i o n . 4: A l l merchantable t r e e s f e l l e d and removed, non-merchantable timber p e r m i t t e d to remain i n p l a c e . * Source: Cameron (1980) and Water Resource S e r v i c e (1977) 160 161 o p e r a t i o n i s r e s t r i c t e d t o m erchantable t i m b e r . As a r e s u l t o f a h i g h e r w a t e r t a b l e a f t e r f l o o d i n g a f i f t h zone may be i d e n t i f i e d above th e r e s e r v o i r . S p e c i f i c a r e a s r e q u i r i n g c l e a r i n g are d e l i n e a t e d where s l o u g h i n g o r 'environmental problems may o c c u r . The f i r s t t h r e e zones may encompass 6 0 t o 95 meters. T h i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o v e r t i c a l e l e v a t i o n , and t h e h o r i z o n t a l d i s t a n c e w i l l v a r y i n r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the s l o p e o f the f l o o d e d a r e a . I n case the h e i g h t o f the dam i s s m a l l e r t h a n the v e r t i c a l d i s t a n c e o f t h e f i r s t t h r e e zones, the r e s e r v o i r w i l l t hen be the o b j e c t o f a complete c l e a r i n g . S p e c i f i c a t i o n s C l e a r i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s f o r t h e R e v e l s t o k e Dam p r o j e c t are o u t l i n e d i n Appendix I I I and i n F i g u r e 20. They r e f e r t o the c u r r e n t c l e a r i n g method, c o l l o q u i a l l y d e s c r i b e d as the " b a t h t u b r i n g t e c h n i q u e . " T h i s a n a l o g y comes from the f a c t t h a t t o t a l c l e a r i n g and d i s p o s a l o f d e b r i s i s u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e f i r s t two zones. I n zone t h r e e , o b l i g a t o r y removal o c c u r s f o r t r e e s whose t o p s p r o t r u d e over t h e n a v i g a t i o n c l e a r a n c e l e v e l . N o t w i t h s t a n d i n g the zones, a l l merchantable t r e e s must be removed from the r e s e r v o i r a r e a . E x c e p t i o n i s made f o r a r e a s where removal i s n o t e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e o r where topography p r e v e n t s the use o f equipment. In t h e s e cases t r e e s are f e l l e d , and f l o a t i n g d e b r i s are removed from th e r e s e r v o i r a f t e r f l o o d i n g . S p e c i f i c c o n s i d e r a t i o n s may be u n d e r t a k e n f o r r e c r e a t i o n , such as complete removal o f stumps i n d e s i g n a t e d a r e a s . F i s h 162 and w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t may a l s o be the o b j e c t o f p a r t i c u l a r c l e a r i n g measures i n order t o m i t i g a t e the impact. Procedure On issuance o f the Water L i c e n c e , o r b e f o r e , f o r e s t companies o p e r a t i n g i n the area o f the f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r are encouraged t o concentrate t h e i r l o g g i n g a c t i v i t y i n the f l o o d i n g zone. T h i s i s accompanied with the r e s c i s s i o n o f f o r e s t management r e g u l a t i o n s ( i . e . l o g g i n g p r a c t i c e s , s l a s h d i s p o s a l , and r e f o r e s t a t i o n ) . When p r e l i m i n a r y d i s p o s a l o f merchantable timber i s performed over a s u f f i c i e n t time p e r i o d , e x i s t i n g l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s may be r e l o c a t e d w i t h i n the r e s e r -v o i r area. Thus, there i s no need t o i n c r e a s e the annual cut o f the timber supply area, o r t o r e q u i r e a s s i s t a n c e from n o n - l o c a l f o r e s t companies. F i n a l c l e a r i n g i s i n i t i a t e d by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e E n g i n e e r i n g D i v i s i o n (Water Improvement P r o j e c t ) , which i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p l a n n i n g and a d m i n i s t e r i n g the c l e a r i n g program. In compliance with the c l e a r i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , the F o r e s t S e r v i c e s t a f f and workforce, and B.C. Hydro's c o n t r a c t o r s proceed to f e l l , p i l l , and burn the t r e e s i n the designated zones. Merchantable timber l e f t on s i t e by f o r e s t companies may be salvaged by the c o n t r a c t o r s . Timber Sales are adver-t i z e d at a stumpage r a t e not l e s s than 25 per c e n t o f the "normal" stumpage value minimum ( i . e . 0.75 percent o f the esti m a t e d market value f o r the species) ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , 1980d). 163 Under c o n d i t i o n s of steep t e r r a i n and r e s e r v o i r s i z e , c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s may be incomplete by the time of f l o o d i n g . The c l e a r i n g program i s then extended to a d e b r i s d i s p o s a l o p e r a t i o n from the newly-formed r e s e r v o i r . Again, the merchan-t a b l e p o r t i o n of the d e b r i s may be salvaged, whereas the r e s t i s c o l l e c t e d , p i l l e d , and burned. The whole c l e a r i n g program i s an expensive one. Since 1974 i t has been r e c o g n i z e d as a c o s t to hydro-dam p r o j e c t s , and i t i s d e f r a y e d by B.C. Hyrdo. However, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e s t a f f working on the c l e a r i n g program i s not p a i d by B.C. Hydro. By 1983, the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f the c l e a r i n g program i n c l u d i n g p l a n n i n g and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , w i l l be borne onl y by B.C. Hydro. The.issues a r i s i n g from t h i s t r a n s f e r of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y are d i s c u s s e d i n a subsequent s e c t i o n of t h i s chapter. In order t o i l l u s t r a t e the f o r e g o i n g o u t l i n e of the r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g process and to i d e n t i f y b a s i c i s s u e s r e l e v a n t t o f o r e s t r y , Mica Duncan and Revelstoke dams' c l e a r i n g are d e s c r i b e d . Seven M i l e Dam's c l e a r i n g was performed without major d i f f i c u l t i e s , as a r e s u l t o f i t s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l r e s e r v o i r . The c l e a r i n g o f Hugh Keenleyside Dam was undertaken under B.C. Hydro's s u p e r v i s i o n . E i g h t y -three c o n t r a c t s were i s s u e d , and, the program was completed before the p r o j e c t became o p e r a t i o n a l (B.C. Hydro, 1969). The c l e a r i n g c o s t accounted f o r approximately f i f t e e n m i l l i o n d o l l a r s ($1350/ha), encompassing a complete c l e a r i n g of 164 the r e s e r v o i r area, f o r a program which employed a t o t a l o f 2,000 people and 300 machines (Wilson, 1973, Chapter 11). MICA DAM Before the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f Mica Dam, s i g n i f i c a n t problems o f d e b r i s d i s p o s a l were encountered at W i l l i s t o n Lake. The s i t u a t i o n o f W.A.C. Bennett Dam r e s e r v o i r induced the F o r e s t S e r v i c e t o c l e a r the r e s e r v o i r behind Mica Dam. I t was decided to adopt the "bathtub r i n g technique" d e s c r i b e d above. How-ever, the s i z e o f the r e s e r v o i r , steep t e r r a i n and the r e l a t i v e s h o r t p e r i o d o f time t o accomplish the c l e a r i n g program r e s u l t e d i n s i g n i f i c a n t impacts on f o r e s t r y . Three p e r i o d s were assig n e d t o the o p e r a t i o n : (1) 1964-1973, removal o f merchantable timber, (2) 1968-1973, i n t e n s i v e c l e a r i n g program, and (3) 1973-1985, d e b r i s d i s p o s a l . REMOVAL OF MERCHANTABLE TIMBER Mica Dam p r o j e c t was approved upon r a t i f i c a t i o n o f the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y i n 196 4. The Tr e a t y r e q u i r e d completion o f the dam by A p r i l 1973, which gave nine years f o r the removal of timber from the f l o o d e d b a s i n . The merchantable timber 3 volume accounted f o r approximately 5.5 m i l l i o n m . With an 3 . annual a l l o w a b l e cut of 850,000 m i n the Kinbasket PSYU, committed at approximately 75 pe r c e n t , i t i m p l i e s the r e l o c a t i o n of a l l l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s t o the r e s e r v o i r area. 165 Problems a r i s i n g from d i s r u p t i o n of l o g g i n g p l a n s , f l u c t u a t i n g market f o r f o r e s t p r oducts, and development of access prevented the removal of an important p o r t i o n of the merchantable timber before the f l o o d i n g . By 1973, i t was 3 e s t i m a t e d t h a t 2,850,000 m o f timber were removed from the r e s e r v o i r area (B'.C. Hydro, 1973), and the remaining s a l v a g e -'s able timber was e v a l u a t e d at 2,250,000 m (Hanson, 1975). INTENSIVE CLEARING PROGRAM The c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s r e q u i r e d the treatment o f 20,365 ha i n the Mica r e s e r v o i r area ( i n c l u d i n g the area i n the Canoe PSYU, n o r t h of the study a r e a ) . Trees were v. f e l l e d and burned on an area o f 9,700 ha, and o n l y f e l l e d on the remaining 11,295 ha (BCFS, 1975) (see Map 6). The o p e r a t i o n was c a r r i e d out between 196 8 and 1973 as f o l l o w s : 196 8 Kinbasket PSYU u n i t survey 1969 S i t e p r e p a r a t i o n 1970 Treatment of 7,085 ha 1971 Treatment o f 5,385 ha 1972 Treatment of 4,210 ha ' 1973 Treatment of 3,500 ha ( M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , Annual r e p o r t s ) On the f i r s t o f A p r i l 1973, two days a f t e r completing the Mica Dam and the T r e a t y ' s d e a d l i n e f o r the b e g i n n i n g of f l o o d i n g , the p r e - f l o o d program was v i r t u a l l y completed. The o p e r a t i o n c o s t $10,047,000: $8,977,000 accounted f o r c l e a r i n g and d i s p o s a l , and $1,070,000 f o r road c o n s t r u c t i o n (BCFS, 1975). However, at l e a s t 11,295 ha were covered with f e l l e d immature and mature t r e e s , which were to be removed from the r e s e r v o i r . P i l i n g and burning the whole area would 166 have n e c e s s i t a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t a d d i t i o n a l funds. As Map 6 d e p i c t s , complete c l e a r i n g was l i m i t e d t o e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e areas. Funding f o r t h i s o p e r a t i o n was p r o v i d e d on a f i f t y - f i f t y b a s i s by B.C. Hydro and the F o r e s t S e r v i c e . DEBRIS DISPOSAL As the water was r i s i n g , d e b r i s were accumulating on the s u r f a c e o f the newly formed r e s e r v o i r . Salvageable timber was e v a l u a t e d at 2,250,000 m3 (Hanson, 1975). In J u l y 1973, Timber Sales were a d v e r t i s e d . However, as they "... r e q u i r e d performance w i t h i n one year by the s u c c e s s f u l t e n d e r e r and p r o v i d e d no payment f o r c o l l e c t i o n and bagging o f the non-merchantable d e b r i s , many p o t e n t i a l b i d d e r s were discouraged" (Farquharson, 1974, p. 6-25). y However, the Mica Salvage A s s o c i a t i o n , a consortium of Revelstoke sawmills, had i t s tender accepted. I t secured two salvage c o n t r a c t s , comprising the northern p o r t i o n of the r e s e r v o i r , which accounted f o r approximately two t h i r d s o f the salvageable volume (Hanson, 1975). The remaining p o r t i o n of timber c o v e r i n g the r e s e r v o i r from Yellow Creek south, was a l l o c a t e d t o Evans Products. The salvage program was requested by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , because i t f e l t t h a t Evans Products, being the l a r g e s t quota h o l d e r i n the PSYU, had a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n the o p e r a t i o n (Hanson, 19 75). Hendrickson C o n t r a c t i n g was h i r e d by Evans t o salvage the timber. I LEGEND F e l l e d F e l l e d & Burned I I Remaining Forest Blackwatar L. MICA DAM RESERVOIR CLEARING Source: Farquharson (19 74) 168 In 1977, the volume of d e b r i s t o be removed was e v a l u a t e d 3 3 at 2,155,000 m and the salvageable timber at 444,600 m (Chretien and Gaudin, 1979). Since 1974, funding p o l i c y r e q u i r e s B.C. Hydro to accept a l l c o s t s o f c l e a r i n g and d e b r i s d i s p o s a l . A nine year d e b r i s d i s p o s a l program has been developed by C h r e t i e n and Gaudin (19 79) . The program was implemented i n 1977, and w i l l r e q u i r e $3,385,941 i n funding ( i n 1979 d o l l a r s ) u n t i l completed i n 1985. Salvageable timber i s handled by c o n t r a c t o r s h o l d i n g F l o o d Timber Sale L i c e n c e s . The maximum volume allowed i n these l i c e n c e s 3 i s 2,000 m , and the stumpage r a t e f o r t h i s m a t e r i a l i s s e t 3 by an Order i n C o u n c i l at $0.20/m . T h i s value i s c l o s e to 3 the minimum stumpage value of $0.22/m f o r the Kootenay r e g i o n , weighed t o s p e c i e s d i s t r i b u t i o n of the d e b r i s . However, i t 3 i s w e l l below the r e g i o n a l average stumpage value of $13.67/m recorded i n 1979 ( M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s , 1979 Annual Re p o r t ) . The d e b r i s d i s p o s a l program was o r i g i n a l l y scheduled to be completed before 1985. I t was extended t o a l l o w s a l -vage o p e r a t o r s more time to salvage the merchantable timber (Best, 1979). However, t h i s w i l l delay the use o f the r e s e r v o i r f o r r e c r e a t i o n and water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . The o b j e c t i v e s of the o r d e r l y removal o f d e b r i s , s a l v a g i n g the merchantable timber, and r e c r e a t i o n use o f the r e s e r v o i r r e s u l t e d i n a c o n f l i c t among B.C. Hydro, salvage o p e r a t o r s , and Golden r e c r e a t i o n i s t s (Drown, 1979). T h i s i s s u e , and others t h a t were i d e n t i f i e d i n d e s c r i b i n g Mica r e s e r v o i r ' s c l e a r i n g are d i s c u s s e d l a t e r i n t h i s chapter. 169 DUNCAN DAM In c o n t r a s t w i t h M i c a Dam, o n l y a p a r t i a l c l e a r i n g was undertaken p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g i n the case o f the Duncan Dam. B.C. Hydro's c o n t r a c t o r s c l e a r e d 850 ha l o c a t e d between t h e dam and Duncan Lake, as i l l u s t r a t e d on Map 7. Between 1972 and 1979 t h e a r e a was c o m p l e t e l y c l e a r e d upon drawdown o f the r e s e r v o i r . A p o r t i o n o f merchantable t i m b e r was removed p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g by Kootenay F o r e s t P r o d u c t s (KFP). In 1961 c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the Duncan Dam was a l m o s t a c e r t a i n t y , and KFP began t o i n t e n s i f y l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s i n the f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r a r e a . A p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e n t o r y i n d i c a t e d t h a t the a r e a c o m p r i s e d 1,09 3 ha o f mature f o r e s t , i n c l u d i n g 588,562 m 3 o f sawlogs ( 2 7 % ) , p u l p l o g s (70%) and c e d a r p o l e s (3%) (KFP, 1961). D i s p o s a l o f merchantable t i m b e r was pe r f o r m e d by KFP, as a r e s u l t o f underdeveloped f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y i n Duncan V a l l e y and because: "Large volume o f s m a l l d i a m t e r f i r l o g s t h a t w i l l be produced i n t h e r e s e r v o i r a r e a o f Duncan Lake: I f we (KFP) do not make p r o v i s i o n f o r h a n d l i n g t h e s e l o g s i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t a c o m p e t i t o r w i l l e n t e r t h e a r e a and become e s t a b l i s h -ed. T h i s would be q u i t e h a r m f u l t o o u r f u t u r e development p l a n s i n t h e a r e a . " (KFP, 1961) An o t h e r r e a s o n s t a t e d was t h a t a complete c l e a r i n g o f the r e s e r v o i r would a t t r a c t many c o n t r a c t o r s , c r e a t i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s i n a l l o c a t i n g volumes o f t i m b e r (Cameron, 1980). By 1964, 90 p e r c e n t o f the a r e a was p r e - l o g g e d f o r p o l e s , 3 and the s a l v a g e volume accounted f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 200,000 m no LEGEND rn 10 N a t u r a l C l e a r i n g B.C. Hydro C l e a r i n g F o r e s t S e r v i c e C l e a r i n g Water R e s e r v o i r O u t l i n e DUNCAN Dr\f\ MAP 7 DUNCAN DAM RESERVOIR CLEARING Source: BCFS (1980a) 171 (KFP, 1964). Volume of p u l p l o g was i g n o r e d as a r e s u l t o f poor market value o f the product and the nature of KFP o p e r a t i o n s . The Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y r e q u i r e d the o p e r a t i o n o f the dam before A p r i l 196 8, a l l o w i n g a p e r i o d o f timber removal of four y e a r s . T h i s probably r e s u l t e d i n a l o s s of timber because KFP argued t h a t the o p e r a t i o n w i l l generate: "...congested flow of l a r g e , over-mature cedar sawlogs to our m i l l . We have a > normal annual demand f o r some 5,000,000 board f e e t o f lumber ( i . e . 2 3,600 m^) produced from t h i s type o f l o g and i t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t we c o u l d s e l l a l a r g e r annual p r o d u c t i o n ( i . e . 50,000 m^) as advantageously." (KFP, 1964) Moreover, the dam was completed ahead of schedule and the r e s e r v o i r reached f u l l pondage i n J u l y 196 7, r e d u c i n g the timber d i s p o s a l p e r i o d by almost a year. In 19 72, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e planned an e i g h t year c l e a r i n g program f o r t h i s d i s p o s a l o f d e b r i s w i t h i n the r e s e r v o i r area. 3 2,025 ha were t r e a t e d , comprising 425,000 m of s t a n d i n g t r e e s , downed timber, s l a s h and snags. Cost o f the o p e r a t i o n was e v a l u a t e d at $3,021,108: $325.53/ha accounting f o r "downing" the t r e e s , and $l,033/ha f o r d e b r i s d i s p o s a l ( p i l i n g and burn^ i n g ) . Approximately 11 percent of the volume was salvaged (BCFS, 1980a). REVELSTOKE DAM Revelstoke Dam i s the most r e c e n t hydro-dam p r o j e c t i n B r i t i s h Columbia. C l e a r i n g of the r e s e r v o i r has been i n i t i a t e d 172 i n 1977, f o l l o w i n g the s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o u t l i n e d i n Appendix I I I . The i n t e n s i v e c l e a r i n g program w i l l l i k e l y a l l e v i a t e post f l o o d i n g problems o f d e b r i s d i s p o s a l , as encountered i n the case of Mica Dam. CONDITIONS PREVAILING BEFORE WATER LICENCE'S ISSUANCE P r i o r t o the p r o j e c t ' s a p p r o v a l , the Columbia R i v e r V a l l e y area between Revelstoke and Mica was the o b j e c t of some degree o f f o r e s t r e g u l a t i o n . For reasons of a e s t h e t i c s and wind p r o -t e c t i o n , a 20 chains r e s e r v e ( i . e . 400 meters') was designated, c u r t a i l i n g h a r v e s t i n s e l e c t e d mature hemlock-cedar timber areas i n TFL 23, adjacent to the e l e v a t i o n of 5 80 meters (7 meters above f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r f l o o d l i n e ) . Moreover, f o r e s t r y development and h a r v e s t i n g were r e s t r i c t e d i n the Downie and Goldstream drainage areas, as a r e s u l t of a w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t r e s o u r c e s review (Resource f o l i o s ) (Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc., 1975). However, from 1973 the Revelstoke Dam p r o j e c t was f e l t t o be undertaken, and measures were i n s t i t u t e d t o i n t e n s i f y l o g g i n g below e l e v a t i o n 5 80 m. C a n c e l , the major o p e r a t o r i n the area, c o n c e n t r a t e d h a r v e s t i n the r e s e r v o i r area on a 50-50 cut and leave b a s i s , s c h e d u l i n g removal o f a l l merchant-ab l e timber by the w i n t e r o f 1979-80 (Kibblewhite e t a l . , 1975). In the same p e r i o d , the Revelstoke Committee was 173 formed i n June 1973, t o i n v e s t i g a t e and recommend a s y s t e m a t i c c l e a r i n g program f o r t h e proposed dam. They recommended: "That i n t h e e v e n t t h a t t h e Water L i c e n c e i s n o t i s s u e d a t an e a r l y date f o r t h i s p r o j e c t c o n s i d e r a t i o n be g i v e n t o t h e removal o f the a f f e c t e d a r e a from s u s t a i n e d y i e l d r e q u i r e m e n t s (e.g. r e t e n t i o n o f t h r i f t y mature, s l a s h d i s p o s a l , and r e f o r -e s t a t i o n ) i f n e c e s s a r y t o complete the l o g g i n g program b e f o r e f l o o d i n g . " ( K i b b l e w h i t e e t a l . , 19 75) I n 1975, 46 p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l l a n d t o be f l o o d e d was a c c o u n t e d f o r i n merchantable t i m b e r , 14 p e r c e n t f o r immature, 30 p e r c e n t f o r l o g g e d , and 10 p e r c e n t f o r an u n p r o d u c t i v e a r e a c o m p r i s e d o f o l d b u r n , b r u s h , and non-commercial s p e c i e s (e.g. Paper b i r c h ( B e t u l a p a p y r i f e r a M a r s h ) ) . I t was assumed t h a t , i n v i e w o f the m a r g i n a l market v a l u e o f p u l p t i m b e r and t h e r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t c l e a r i n g p e r i o d , 40 p e r c e n t o f the p u l p t i m b e r and 10 p e r c e n t o f the sawtimber 3 would be burned as d e b r i s , a c c o u n t i n g f o r 343,625 m ( R e i d , C o l l i n s and A s s o c . , 1975). However, good market c o n d i t i o n s i n 19 7 8 and 19 79 r e s u l t e d i n t h e removal o f most o f t h e sawlogs, and a p p r o x i m a t e l y 80 p e r c e n t o f the p u l p l o g s w i l l l i k e l y be r e c u p e r a t e d ( N e l s o n , 1980). CLEARING PROGRAM With the c l e a r i n g e x p e r i e n c e o f M i c a Dam i t was found t h a t t h e average volume o f d e b r i s , c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g t h e e s t i m a t e d volume o f d e b r i s on t h e r e s e r v o i r a f t e r f l o o d i n g by t h e a r e a i n which t r e e s were f e l l e d , a c c o u n t e d f o r approx-3 i m a t e l y 190m /ha. Assuming c o n d i t i o n s a r e s i m i l a r i n the 174 R e v e l s t o k e a r e a , and then a d d i n g t h e u n r e c o v e r e d mature volume, i t i s d e r i v e d t h a t t h e t i m b e r volume t o be t r e a t e d i n t h e 3 r e s e r v o i r a r e a may account f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1,540,000 m . The i n t e n s i v e program r e s u l t i n g from r i g o r o u s c l e a r i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s and a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e volume makes the o p e r a t i o n e x p e n s i v e . A p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t e performed i n 1972 i n d i c a t e d a c l e a r i n g c o s t o f $5.6 m i l l i o n f o r s t a n d a r d s comparable t o the M i c a Dam o p e r a t i o n s ( W i l l i a m s , 1972). A f t e r i s s u a n c e o f the Water L i c e n c e , $20.5 m i l l i o n was made a v a i l a b l e f o r c l e a r i n g , a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s (Madlung, 1979). By d e d u c t i n g the a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t e s t i m a t e ( R e i d , 1976), c l e a r i n g c o s t may be e s t i m a t e d a t $18.5 m i l l i o n . The e x p e n d i t u r e on c l e a r i n g was $5.9 m i l l i o n f o r t h e f i r s t y e a r o f o p e r a t i o n w i t h the t r e a t m e n t o f 1,6 40 ha, and a comparable i n v e s t m e n t was p r e d i c t e d f o r 19 79 (B.C. Hydro, 1979). T h i s w i l l l i k e l y r e s u l t i n a s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r c l e a r i n g c o s t . The a d o p t i o n o f h i g h - l e a d c a b l e l o g g i n g f o r s t e e p a r e a s w i l l p e r m i t t o reduce t o a minimum p o s t - f l o o d i n g d e b r i s problems. However, t h i s t e c h n i q u e r e s u l t s i n a h i g h e r c o s t o f c l e a r i n g . I t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e average c l e a r i n g c o s t i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y $3,000/ha, t h u s b r i n g i n g t h e t o t a l c l e a r i n g c o s t t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y $24 m i l l i o n ( N e l s o n , 1980). In a d d i t i o n t o t h e c o s t o f c l e a r i n g , a n o t h e r p o i n t must be r a i s e d . C l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s , l o g g i n g a c t i v i t y o f f o r e s t companies, r e l o c a t i o n o f the main a c c e s s r o a d (Highway #23), and the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the dam are t a k i n g p l a c e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y 175 w i t h i n the same area, and may generate c o n f l i c t s . For example, i n the summer of 1980 c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s employed 158 people and 2 0 t r a c t o r s t o c a r r y out the program. In the same p e r i o d 125 t o 140 t r u c k - l o a d / d a y s o f timber were u s i n g the main access road above the r e s e r v o i r (B.C. Hydro, 1980). The work f o r c e associated, with the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the dam was p r e d i c t e d to reach 3,500 i n 1980, and Highway #23 was d i s r u p t e d at s e v e r a l p l a c e s , as a r e s u l t o f i t s r e l o c a t i o n . F o r e s t companies were concerned about delays and d i s r u p t i o n of t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s as a r e s u l t o f these c o n f l i c t i n g a c t i v i t i e s (R.S. Coleman L t d . , 1976). However, c o - o r d i n a t i o n between B.C. Hydro and the f o r e s t companies seems t o have o b v i a t e d p o t e n t i a l impacts. MAJOR CONCERNS The examination of three d i f f e r e n t approaches t o r e s e r -v o i r c l e a r i n g permits one t o address a range of i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o the impact o f f o r e s t companies, the u t i l i z a t i o n o f the timber r e s o u r c e , and the e f f i c i e n c y of c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s . F i v e important q u e s t i o n s were i d e n t i f i e d , and are d i s c u s s e d from the viewpoint o f the above concerns. F i r s t , removal of merchantable timber ought t o be under-taken p r i o r t o the c l e a r i n g program., i n order t o recover the maximum volume o f the timber resource. L i m i t i n g f a c t o r s t o the success of t h i s o p e r a t i o n are: (1) p e r i o d of removal, and (2) l e v e l of commitment o f the timber supply area. In 176 the c l e a r i n g programs examined, the removal p e r i o d s were under-taken approximately f i v e years p r i o r t o the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the dams, and the unrecovered merchantable timber p r i o r t o f l o o d i n g was s i g n i f i c a n t i n two cases. In order t o achieve adequate recovery o f mature timber the minimum p e r i o d a l l o t t e d t o t h i s o p e r a t i o n should be d e f i n e d as the number o f years i t would take to h a r v e s t the given volume by r e l o c a t i n g the e x i s t i n g l o g g i n g a c t i v i t y t o the f l o o d i n g area. Then c o n s i d e r a t i o n should be given t o the development o f access, d i s r u p t i o n of l o g g i n g p l a n s , and market c o n d i t i o n s . However, i t does not appear t h a t such concern i s adequately c o n s i d e r e d p r i o r t o the issuance o f the Water L i c e n c e . In order to f a c i l i t a t e t h i s o p e r a t i o n by i n d u c i n g f o r e s t companies t o concentrate t h e i r a c t i v i t y i n the f l o o d i n g area i t was recommended t h a t : "On f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r p r o j e c t s where c o n s u l t a t i o n between B.C. Hydro and B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e shows t h a t o r d e r l y r e -moval o f timber should commence p r i o r t o p r o j e c t c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t the M i n i s t e r of Lands, F o r e s t s and Water Resources ( i . e . M i n i s t e r of F o r e s t s ) r e s c i n d a l l f o r e s t management r e g u l a t i o n s i n the area." (Kibblewhite e t a l . , 1975) C e r t a i n l y , such a recommendation r e q u i r e s c o - o r d i n a t i o n among f o r e s t r y groups and a long-range p l a n n i n g p e r s p e c t i v e f o r p o t e n t i a l hydro-dam areas. Second, t o be conducted e f f i c i e n t l y , c l e a r i n g should be performed over a p e r i o d determined by the b i o - p h y s i c a l con-d i t i o n s o f the f l o o d i n g area and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of economic reso u r c e s ( c a p i t a l , l abour, equipment, and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e ) . 177 At p r esent, the c l e a r i n g program c o i n c i d e s with the dam's c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d . T h i s r e s u l t s from the f a c t t h a t the issuance o f the Water L i c e n c e . ( o u t l i n i n g c l e a r i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s ) i s p r i m a r i l y a f u n c t i o n o f the dam's c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d and the year t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y (or storage) must be a v a i l a b l e t o meet f o r e c a s t energy demands. T h e r e f o r e , the c l e a r i n g program has t o comply with t h i s schedule, and t h i s may r e s u l t i n a more expensive o p e r a t i o n , and/or i n f a i l u r e t o achieve the c l e a r i n g o b j e c t i v e . Moreover, c l e a r i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s are m i t i g a t i o n measures o f the p r o j e c t t o a l l e v i a t e impacts on r e c r e a t i o n , a e s t h e t i c s , forestry:, f i s h and w i l d l i f e . The s p e c i f i c a t i o n s are designed to achieve these m i t i g a t i o n o b j e c t i v e s , and are d e f i n e d i n c o n s i d e r i n g s i t e s p e c i f i c b i o - p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e , w i t h r e s p e c t t o a c l e a r i n g program schedule and s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , the Water L i c e n c e should be taken as an instrument with broader o b j e c t i v e s than water a l l o c a t i o n . T h i r d , c l e a r i n g programs i n c l u d e d e b r i s d i s p o s a l and timber salvage. F a i l u r e t o c o - o r d i n a t e these two o p e r a t i o n s may r e s u l t i n c o n f l i c t s , and the l o s s o f timber resource. The case o f Mica Dam showed t h a t making d e b r i s d i s p o s a l and timber salvage two d i s t i n c t o p e r a t i o n s generated con-f l i c t s among B.C. Hydro, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and salvage o p e r a t o r s (Drown, 19 79). The s o l u t i o n sought was to extend the p e r i o d o f d e b r i s d i s p o s a l t o allow proper removal of salv a g e a b l e timber. However, d e l a y i n g the use of the r e s e r v o i r f o r r e c r e a t i o n and water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f logs r e s u l t e d i n 178 a c o n f l i c t with other i n t e r e s t groups. The i n t e g r a t i o n o f the two o p e r a t i o n s may prevent h a n d l i n g the m a t e r i a l s t w i c e , and a l l e v i a t e the problems o u t l i n e d above. In order t o achieve a b e t t e r recovery o f the timber re s o u r c e , the o r g a n i z a t i o n of the e n t i r e c l e a r i n g program should be the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of a s i n g l e a u t h o r i t y , which may be c o n s t i t u t e d by v a r i o u s i n t e r e s t groups. Furthermore, the issuance of Timber Sale L i c e n c e s c o u l d p r o v i d e payment f o r the c o l l e c t i o n o f the non-merchantable d e b r i s . Steps have been undertaken i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n . For i n s t a n c e , B.C. Hydro has been given a l i c e n c e t o s e l l merchantable timber from d e b r i s c o l l e c t e d on Kinbasket Lake. I t was expected / t h a t t h i s a c t i o n would s t i m u l a t e p r i v a t e o p e r a t o r s i n t o t a k i n g more salvage o p e r a t i o n s (Best, 1979). Moreover, a f t e r the completion of Revelstoke Dam, B.C. Hydro w i l l become the s i n g l e a u t h o r i t y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s (Brock, 1980). Fourth, the d e s i g n a t i o n o f the r e s p o n s i b l e a u t h o r i t y f o r c l e a r i n g c o s t s and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i s of utmost importance. P r i o r t o A p r i l 1974, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and B.C. Hydro were b e a r i n g c l e a r i n g c o s t s on a f i f t y - f i f t y b a s i s , and the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the program l a y with the F o r e s t S e r v i c e through the E n g i n e e r i n g D i v i s i o n ' s Water Improvement P r o j e c t . Since A p r i l 1974, the c o s t of c l e a r i n g was r e c o g n i z e d as a c o s t t o the hydro p r o j e c t s , and B.C. Hydro i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i t s payment, although a d m i n i s t r a t i o n remains the f u n c t i o n o f the Water Improvement P r o j e c t . The F o r e s t S e r v i c e , however, d e f r a y s the s a l a r y of s t a f f p l a n n i n g and s u p e r v i s i n g the program. 179 F i g u r e 21 shows the expenditures on c l e a r i n g s i n c e 196 8. A f t e r the completion of the Revelstoke Dam i n 1983, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e w i l l withdraw from the p l a n n i n g and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f the program, handing over i t s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o B.C. Hydro. A reason given f o r t h i s move was t h a t the F o r e s t S e r v i c e would r a t h e r channel i t s energy and s t a f f toward i n t e r n a l g o als (Brock, 1980). However, the F o r e s t S e r v i c e seems more e f f i c i e n t i n c a r r y i n g out the c l e a r i n g program as a r e s u l t o f l o c a l h i r i n g as opposed t o Vancouver based unions, and i t s a b i l i t y t o c o - o r d i n a t e removal of merchantable timber and c l e a r i n g (Brock, 1980). An important problem seems t o emerge from the i n t e r -a c t i o n s o f B.C. Hydro and the F o r e s t S e r v i c e . I t may be argued t h a t p l a n n i n g and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f a program c o u l d l e a d t o d i f f i c u l t i e s ^in c o n t r o l l i n g i t s cost" e f f e c t i v e n e s s when the c o s t s are borne by an e x t e r n a l source. T h i s i s f u t h e r j u s t i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t these c o s t s may be p e r c e i v e d as sm a l l increments t o m u l t i - m i l l i o n d o l l a r hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . However, i t may a l s o be argued t h a t i n t e r n a l i z i n g the p l a n n i n g and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e f u n c t i o n s t o B.C. Hydro may not n e c e s s a r i l y improve the c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s , as a r e s u l t o f f o r e g o i n g the c o n t r i b u t i o n o f the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and l o c a l c o n t r a c t o r s t o the c l e a r i n g program. The i n t e g r a t i o n o f c l e a r i n g c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s and e f f i c i e n c y o f the o p e r a t i o n s r e q u i r e s a d i f f e r e n t type of arrangement than the c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e o r the f u t u r e p o l i c y . A p o s s i b l e way t o f o l l o w would be t o maintain the presen t arrangement, Figure 21. Water improvement project expenditure recovery^ from B.C. Hydro.* 6.0 5.0 J 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Recovery from B.C. Hydro 50-50 basis expenditure by B.C. Hydro and the Forest Service "• » ' > \ > I ' I --1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Fiscal Year PEACE* MICA DUNC-AN , STAVE. REVELSTOKE * Source: Ministry of Forests, Annual reports. ** Clearing period. 181 and a l l o w i n g n e g o t i a t i o n between B.C. Hydro and the F o r e s t S e r v i c e t o agree upon the c o s t of c l e a r i n g before the p r o j e c t i s undertaken. T h i s would permit b e n e f i t from the e x p e r t i s e of the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the o p e r a t i o n a l experience of l o c a l c o n t r a c t o r s . Moreover, i t would pr o v i d e a mechanism to c o n t r o l the c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f the program. F i f t h , over the 1972-1985 p e r i o d , approximately 4 m i l l i o n m o f d e b r i s w i l l be generated from Duncan, Mica and Revelstoke dam p r o j e c t s . I t was suggested by CIF (1976) f o r the case o f Revelstoke Dam, t h a t timber volume be used as a source of energy. I t was argued t h a t as a r e s u l t o f the important volume generated a t a p o i n t source - the r e s e r v o i r - the energy g e n e r a t i n g s t a t i o n c o u l d be l o c a t e d near the dam, and t h i s would minimize t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s which are c o n t r o l l i n g f a c t o r s i n the economic f e a s i b i l i t y o f hog-fuel p r o d u c t i o n . I t was f u r t h e r suggested t h a t , with an energy e q u i v a l e n t o f 0.64 b a r r e l s o f o i l f o r a c u b i c meter o f western hemlock, s h o r t term e l e c t r i c a l energy c o u l d be d e r i v e d from the r e s i d u e s . The presence of o t h e r s p e c i e s with a l e s s e r c a p a c i t y f o r energy p r o d u c t i o n , and the presence o f m a t e r i a l d i f f i c u l t t o handle (such as branches and stumps) would l i k e l y r e s u l t i n a l e s s e r e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s suggested t h a t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y be e x p l o r e d . In c o n c l u s i o n , i n order to minimize p o t e n t i a l impacts on f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t r y r e s o u r c e , and to improve the e f f i c i e n c y of the c l e a r i n g program, three c o n d i t i o n s msut be c o n s i d e r e d . F i r s t , p l a n n i n g the removal of timber over a p e r i o d t h a t w i l l permit e x i s t i n g l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s to perform the 182 a c t i v i t y . Second, i n t e g r a t i n g timber salvage and d e b r i s removal o p e r a t i o n s , and i n v e s t i g a t i n g the f e a s i b i l i t y of the u t i l i z a t i o n o f the d e b r i s as a source o f energy. T h i r d , c o - o r d i n a t i n g the timber removal and the c l e a r i n g program as two interdependent p a r t s of the c l e a r i n g p r o c e s s . A c t i o n s may be undertaken at two l e v e l s t o meet the above c o n d i t i o n s . At the o p e r a t i o n a l l e v e l , i n c e n t i v e s , such as r e s o i s s i o n o f f o r e s t r e g u l a t i o n s , may be given to encourage f o r e s t o p e r a t o r s t o concentrate l o g g i n g a c t i v i t y i n the r e s e r v o i r area. F u r t h e r , the Water L i c e n c e may become an instrument with broader o b j e c t i v e s than water a l l o c a t i o n . I t would pursue m i t i g a t i o n o b j e c t i v e s by s e t t i n g c l e a r i n g s p e c i f i c a t i o n s t o be undertaken on an a p p r o p r i a t e time p e r i o d . Moreover, Timber Sale L i c e n c e s may be i s s u e d with p r o v i s i o n f o r timber salvage and debis c o l l e c t i o n . At the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l e v e l , B.C. Hydro i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r d e f r a y i n g the c o s t of c l e a r i n g . Future p o l i c y i n d i c a t e s t h a t p l a n n i n g and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f the program w i l l a l s o be undertaken by B.C. Hydro. A s u c c e s s f u l c l e a r i n g program r e q u i r e s the p r o v i s i o n of a communication channel between the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and the o p e r a t i o n a l l e v e l s . R e s c i s s i o n o f f o r e s t r e g u l a t i o n s and Timber Sale l i c e n s i n g r e s t w i t h i n the a u t h o r i t y o f the F o r e s t S e r v i c e , and the Water L i c e n c e i s i s s u e d by the Water Righ t s Branch of the M i n i s t r y of the Environment. Moreover, i t i s argued t h a t the F o r e s t S e r v i c e and the l o c a l c o n t r a c t o r s were b e t t e r s u i t e d to undertake the c l e a r i n g program than B.C. Hydro. In order t o a l l e v i a t e 183 the n e g a t i v e impacts of the f u t u r e p o l i c y , i t i s t h e r e f o r e suggested t h a t c o - o r d i n a t i o n be p r o v i d e d among the i n t e r e s t groups to develop a p p r o p r i a t e r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g s t r a t e g i e s . 184 CONCLUSION In t h i s study a systems viewpoint was developed t o d e f i n e a timber supply model, d e s c r i b i n g the impacts of hydro-dams on f o r e s t r y . The r e d u c t i o n of timber supply and d i s r u p t i o n o f access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s were i d e n t i f i e d as major impacts. E s t i m a t i o n of the economic importance was undertaken by determining the value of f o r e s t l a n d l y i n g i n the Revelstoke Dam r e s e r v o i r area, and by a s s e s s i n g the c o s t of r e - e s t a b l i s h i n g . a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n the cases o f Mica and Revelstoke dams. Regiona l impacts on employment" and value added were b r i e f l y o u t l i n e d . R e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g was d e s c r i b e d as being an important aspect of s h o r t -term impact on f o r e s t companies, timber r e s o u r c e , and the e f f i c i e n c y of the o p e r a t i o n . The r e d u c t i o n of timber supply was determined by c a l -c u l a t i n g the area withdrawn from f o r e s t p r o d u c t i o n , and the r e l a t e d growth r a t e . I t was found t h a t approximately 50,000 ha of b e t t e r than average s i t e s were l o s t , a c counting t o an 3 approximate annual timber p r o d u c t i o n i n the o r d e r of 180,000 m . In 1981 d o l l a r s , i t would r e p r e s e n t a stumpage value of $760,000 per year (see F i g u r e 19). U n c e r t a i n t y w i t h r e s p e c t to the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of i n d i r e c t and induced impacts, and the 185 exte n t of f o r e s t resource value a p p r e c i a t i o n and f u t u r e manage-ment p r a c t i c e s prevented an accurate estimate of these impacts. The changes i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s were identified, i n terms of timber supply d i s r u p t i o n , and s t r a t e g i e s f o l l o w e d t o r e - e s t a b l i s h f o r e s t r y . Access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n impacts were f e l t t o be the most important by f o r e s t companies. The case of Mica Dam showed t h a t f a i l u r e t o p r o v i d e s a t i s f a c t o r y access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s may l e a d t o a s i g n i f i c a n t d i s r u p t i o n i n the timber supply. I t was found t h a t the three major r e s e r v o i r s were to be exten-s i v e l y used f o r water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , as they c o n s t i t u t e d a more e f f i c i e n t method than road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . However, the hig h c a p i t a l c o s t of water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e d p u b l i c funding. A p a r t i a l r ecovery of t h i s c o s t may be p o s s i b l e through stumpage revenue, on the c o n d i t i o n t h a t the timber supply i s f u l l y u t i l i z e d by the f o r e s t companies. From p a s t experience i n r e s e r v o i r c l e a r i n g i t was suggested t h a t , i n order t o minimize p o t e n t i a l impacts on f o r e s t r y and f o r e s t r e s o u r c e , and t o improve the e f f i c i e n c y o f c l e a r i n g program, t h r e e c o n d i t i o n s must be c o n s i d e r e d . F i r s t , p l a n n i n g the removal of timber over a p e r i o d t h a t w i l l permit e x i s t i n g l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s t o perform the a c t i v i t y . Second, i n t e g r a t i n g timber salvage and d e b r i s removal o p e r a t i o n s , and i n v e s t i g a t i n g the f e a s i b i l i t y o f the u t i l i z a t i o n o f d e b r i s as a source o f energy. T h i r d , c o - o r d i n a t i n g the timber removal and the c l e a r i n g program as two interdependent p a r t s of the c l e a r i n g p r o c e s s . Some concerns were a l s o r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g the f u t u r e r o l e o f 186 B.C. Hydro i n p l a n n i n g and c a r r y i n g o u t t h e c l e a r i n g program. I t may be c o n c l u d e d t h a t r e p e r c u s s i o n s o f hydro-dams on f o r e s t r y a re t w o - f o l d : f i r s t , l o s s o f o p p o r t u n i t y r e l a t e d t o employment, v a l u e added, r e g i o n a l income, and government revenue o c c u r s as a r e s u l t o f f o r e s t l a n d w i t h d r a w a l . S e c o n d l y , i n c r e a s e s i n o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , when m i g i t a t i o n measures'*" are not u ndertaken t o r e - e s t a b l i s h a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s , l e a d t o a g r e a t e r s e n s i t i v i t y t o market c o n d i t i o n s . As a r e s u l t o f the i n h e r e n t f l u c t u a t i n g demand f o r f o r e s t p r o d u c t s , a l e s s r e s i l i e n t t i m b e r s u p p l y system makes f o r e s t management p r i n c i p l e s h a r d e r t o f o l l o w . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the v e r y o b j e c t i v e o f f o r e s t p o l i c y - maintenance o f f o r e s t i n d u s t r y , r e g i o n a l s t a b i l i t y o f employment, wa t e r s h e d and e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y , and m u l t i p l e r e s o u r c e management - are undermined. However, t h e s i t u a t i o n d e p i c t e d above must be u n d e r s t o o d w i t h i n a b r o a d e r p e r s p e c t i v e . In w e i g h i n g c o s t s v e r s u s b e n e f i t s s o c i e t y from hydro-dams i t appears t h a t a n e t b e n e f i t r e s u l t s . The b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s i s d e s i g n e d t o answer t h i s q u e s t i o n . .. Moreover, compensation and m i t i g a t i o n measures may be und e r t a k e n t o l e s s e n t h e above i m p a c t s . Remedy may be sought, t h r o u g h t h e t i m b e r s u p p l y and demand model o u t l i n e d i n Ch a p t e r I I . H a r v e s t i n g , enhancement o f t i m b e r s u p p l y , and development o f a c c e s s were i d e n t i f i e d as a c t i n g elements upon Mitigation may be defined as "... a change in structural design, construction timing or location of a physical f a c i l i t y undertaken for the express purpose of reducing or eliminating any delerious effects of the construction of operation and maintenance of such f a c i l i t i e s on the natural or human environment." (ELUC, 1977, p. 119) 187 the timber supply. I t i s suggested t h a t the f i r s t two elements may c o u n t e r a c t the r e d u c t i o n of timber supply, whereas the t h i r d i s a p p l i e d to the r e - e s t a b l i s h m e n t of access and t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s . F i r s t , h a r v e s t i n g a c t i o n s may i n c r e a s e timber supply by (1) a b e t t e r l e v e l of timber u t i l i z a t i o n , and (2) improvement of h a r v e s t i n g methods. Table 1 shows t h a t i n c l u d i n g t r e e s w i t h diameters from 12.5 to.17.5 cm may r a i s e the cut by 10 to 15 p e r c e n t . Current p r a c t i c e s r e s t r i c t h a r v e s t from E n v i r -onment P r o t e c t i o n F o r e s t s by 90 p e r c e n t due t o access problems and environmental s e n s i t i v i t y . Improvement of l o g g i n g methods, by u s i n g cable l o g g i n g f o r example, may expand the commercial f o r e s t l a n d base. Implementation of these a c t i o n s , however, i s dependent upon e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s . T e c h n o l o g i c a l improvement, i n h a r v e s t i n g methods and the t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t f a c i l i t i e s t o accomodate s m a l l e r l o g s i z e , i s an important e x t e r n a l f a c t o r . Moreover, market demand must be generated to j u s t i f y commercial p r o d u c t i o n o f s m a l l e r l o g s . T h e r e f o r e , h a r v e s t i n g a c t i o n s are p o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n s but are not con-s i d e r e d f o r immediate implementation. Second, an enhancement o f the timber supply, by implementing s i l v i c u l t u r a l programs, appears t o be a promising s o l u t i o n . A p o s s i b l e r a i s e i n p r o d u c t i o n by 91 p e r c e n t , as suggested by Walters (1980), may a l l e v i a t e timber supply r e d u c t i o n impact. However, i t should be noted t h a t b e t t e r than average f o r e s t s i t e s which possess o u t s t a n d i n g access f e a t u r e s ( i . e . l o c a t i o n and topography) were withdrawn, and are i r r e p l a c e a b l e l o s s e s . 188 N e v e r t h e l e s s , i n i t i a t i n g s i l v i l c u l t u r a l programs i n a r e a s a f f e c t e d by hydro-dam p r o j e c t s s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d . The r e s u l t s o f such a c t i o n s would be immediate: th e 'annual a l l o w a b l e c u t m a i n t a i n e d a t i t s p r e v i o u s l e v e l , employment g e n e r a t e d by s i l v i c u l t u r e , and maintenance o f f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y . T h i r d , t i m b e r s u p p l y d i s r u p t i o n may be c o u n t e r a c t e d by e s t a b l i s h i n g an e f f e c t i v e system o f a c c e s s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . The R e v e l s t o k e Dam case showed t h a t t h e r eplacement o f e x i s t i n g r o a d s , and c o n s t r u c t i o n o f f e r r y l a n d i n g s and water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s may p e r m i t maintenance, and p o s s i b l e improvement f o r a c c e s s i b i l i t y and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s . These m i t i g a t i o n measures have been r e c o g n i z e d by t h e Compt-r o l l e r o f Water R i g h t s upon i s s u a n c e o f the Water L i c e n c e , and w i l l l i k e l y remain i n t h e f u t u r e . However, t h e s e measures were d e f i n e d i n terms o f r eplacement o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , and not n e c e s s a r i l y on t h e grounds o f e f f i c i e n c y and e f f e c t i v e -n e s s . I t i s t h e r e f o r e s u g g e s t e d t h a t a t i m b e r a l l o c a t i o n system be d e s i g n e d t o d e v e l o p t i m b e r s u p p l y p o t e n t i a l a t a minimum c o s t , t a k i n g i n t o account e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s t r a i n t s and o t h e r l a n d uses o f t h e a r e a . The t i m b e r s u p p l y and demand model showed t h a t implement-a t i o n o f a c c e s s development and i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management r e q u i r e s an a l l o c a t i o n o f economic r e s o u r c e s ( c a p i t a l , l a b o u r , equipment, and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e ) . The l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i n u n d e r t a k i n g t h e s e a c t i o n s seems t o be i n v e s t m e n t o f c a p i t a l . The b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s framework may be o f h e l p i n d e t e r -m i n i n g the responsible a u t h o r i t y t o p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t f u n d i n g . 189 T h i s s t u d y examined imp a c t s on f o r e s t r y p r o d u c t i o n from hydro-dams. T h e r e f o r e , t o be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h i n the b e n e f i t -c o s t a n a l y s i s framework, and w i t h i t s e x p r e s s i o n i n t h e P a r e t o C r i t e r i o n , compensation t o f o r e s t r y s h o u l d be g e n e r a t e d from b e n e f i t s a c c r u i n g from hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . T h i s seems t o be r e c o g n i z e d i n a c c e s s development. However, cases o f i n v e s t -ment i n s i l v i c u l t u r e are l a c k i n g . R e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t c o n c e r n f o r i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t management a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the p r e d i c t i o n o f a t i m b e r s h o r t a g e may a c c o u n t , i n p a r t , f o r t h i s s i t u a t i o n . F i n a l l y , t h e concept o f i n t e g r a t e d r e s o u r c e management (IRM) i s a d d r e s s e d . Two o p e r a t i n g l e v e l s o f IRM may be i d e n t -i f i e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o hydro-dam development. F i r s t , a l a n d a l l o c a t i o n l e v e l , r e f e r i n g t o the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g c o n t e x t when a p r o j e c t p r o p o s a l i s s u b m i t t e d . Second, a r e s o u r c e management l e v e l , o p e r a t i n g a f t e r a d e c i s i o n has been reached. I t s h o u l d be re-emphasized t h a t IRM i s d e f i n e d as -a c o n t r o l system s e t by economic, s o c i a l and e c o l o g i c a l c r i t e r i a . The purpose o f IRM a t t h e l a n d a l l o c a t i o n l e v e l i s t o determine the r e l e v a n c y o f a p r o j e c t i n terms o f an a t t a i n m e n t o f s o c i a l g o a l s . The b a s i s o f such an assessment may be e x p r e s s e d i n a m u l t i p l e - o b j e c t i v e framework. The b e n f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s approach d e s i g n e d by ELUC (1977), and o u t l i n e d i n Cha p t e r I V , i s an example o f such a framework. However, d e s p i t e i t s p r a c t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s - i n terms o f non-market v a l u e s , market i m p e r f e c t i o n s , u n t e s t e d economic a s s u m p t i o n s , and d i f f i c u l t i e s a r i s i n g from comparing c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s -i t i s s u g g e s t e d t h a t the c o n c e p t u a l b a s i s o f such an approach be adopted. I t may h e l p t o determine p r o p e r compensation 190 and m i t i g a t i o n measures f o r n a t u r a l resources a f f e c t e d by the p r o j e c t . At the resource management l e v e l , IRM may determine the b e s t way t o adapt t o a s h i f t i n land-use p a t t e r n s r e q u i r e d by hydro-dam p r o j e c t s . I t may s e t g u i d e l i n e s f o r the use of compensation toward m a i n t a i n i n g the a f f e c t e d r e s o u r c e s . I t may a l s o d e f i n e m i t i g a t i o n measures t o be undertaken i n order to a l l e v i a t e impacts upon n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . F i n a l l y , i n the long run, i t may p r o v i d e a c o n t r o l mechanism t o permit harmonious, resource development t o b e n e f i t dependent communities. However, even though the above suggestion f o r IRM imple-mentation appear c o n c e p t u a l l y sound, the p r a c t i c a l s i g n i f i a n c e o f the concept must be c o n s i d e r e d . From t h i s study, i t i s c l e a r t h a t B.C. Hydro i s the e n t i t y c a r r y i n g out IRM f o r hydro-dam development. At every stage B.C. Hydro has a c e n t r a l r o l e : p r o v i d i n g an a n a l y t i c a l t o o l t o l a n d a l l o c a t i o n and d e f i n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s ; performing environmental and socio-economic assess ment; i d e n t i f y i n g m i t i g a t i o n measures and compensation l e v e l s ; and p l a n n i n g and administering the c l e a r i n g program (from 1983). The issuance of the Water L i c e n c e and i t s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s seems to be the only major r e s p o n s i b i l i t y l y i n g o u t s i d e B.C. Hydro's a u t h o r i t y . A standard to which IRM has t o measure i t s performance i s the improvement of s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g , congruous with the r e f e r e n t group system of a c t i v i t i e s . As a r e s u l t of the p u b l i c u t i l i t y ' s c e n t r a l r o l e i n j u d g i n g i t s own c a p a c i t y to enhance s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g , i t can be argued t h a t B.C. Hydro i s e f f e c t i v e 191 the r e f e r e n t group for which res o u r c e s are managed. T h e r e f o r e , s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g i s d e f i n e d here from hydro-power viewpoint and permits promotion of the Crown c o r p o r a t i o n ' s i n t e r e s t . T h i s i n f e r e n c e stems from the f a c t t h a t i n s t e a d of f i r s t d e f i n i n g the p e o p l e - r e l a t e d problems o f the r e g i o n , B.C. Hydro proceeds with development plans p r o m i s i n g o p t i m a l u t i l i z a t i o n o f water reso u r c e . "Only a f t e r w a r d i s an attempt made to r e c o n c i l e p h y s i c a l l y - o r i e n t e d p l a n s with the problems they are designed t o s o l v e " (Schramm, 1980, p. 791). T h i s p r o p o s i t i o n i s f u r t h e r j u s t i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s l e s s e r f o r r e g i o n a l i n t e r e s t s than f o r provice-wide concerns. The o r i g i n o f t h i s problem may be r e t r a c e d t o the e a r l y 1960's when the B.C. Power Commission was a Crown c o r p o r a t i o n with simple power o r g a n i z a t i o n , whose function^ :was t o b r i n g hydro-power t o the r u r a l p a r t s o f the p r o v i n c e . When the B.C. Power Commission and the p r i v a t e B.C. E l e c t r i c C o r p o r a t i o n were i n t e g r a t e d , thus c r e a t i n g the B.C. Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y , the p r i o r i t i e s o f the Commission were supplanted by a l a r g e b u r e a u c r a t i c apparatus which expanded t o t r a v e l systems, n a t u r a l gas d i s t r i b u t i o n , and i n d u s t r i a l r a i l w a y l i n e s . Moreover, wi t h the requirements of the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y , and the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f Kootenay Canal, Seven M i l e and Revelstoke Dams, h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y was harnessed t o s a t i s f y an e x t r a - r e g i o n a l demand. T h i s was a r a d i c a l change i n the hydro-development o f the Kootenays, where g e n e r a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y was assumed l a r g e l y by the West Kootenay Power and L i g h t Company (WKPL) (Wilson, 1978). However, 192 WKPL i s r e a c h i n g the l i m i t of i t s energy supply c a p a c i t y , and B.C. Hydro has a l r e a d y planned to p r o v i d e a d d i t i o n a l supply through the energy t r a n s m i s s i o n system. A p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n t o s o l v e p a r t of the IRM problems would be t o give the r e g i o n some o f B.C. Hydro's f u n c t i o n s . Two g e n e r a l s e t s of f u n c t i o n s may be r e c o g n i z e d t o t h i s e f f e c t , namely: the g e n e r a t i o n o f energy, and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y . . The g e n e r a t i v e f u n c t i o n seems t o be more a p p r o p r i a t e at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l , as a r e s u l t of the s i z e of the p r o j e c t s and the province-wide energy g o a l s pursued by B.C. Hydro. However, an e f f i c i e n t d i s t r i b u t i v e f u n c t i o n may be p r o v i d e d at the r e g i o n a l l e v e l by the e x i s t e n c e o f an i n t e g r a t e d energy t r a n s m i s s i o n system. Furthermore, s i x r e g i o n a l d i v i s i o n s are o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n B.C. Hydro's o r g a n i -z a t i o n - one o f which roughly encompasses the Kootenays and the Okanagan - and t h e i r r o l e s are l i k e l y t o expand i n the f u t u r e . To improve the IRM p r o c e s s , these f u n c t i o n s should i n c l u d e : - e v a l u a t i n g the r e g i o n a l energy needs, - a c h i e v i n g e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of remote areas, - promoting the g e n e r a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e source o f energy through implementation of an e f f e c t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n system, - i n d u c i n g c o - g e n e r a t i o n of power t o supply l o c a l needs (e.g. t o s u b s i d i z e hog f u e l p r o d u c t i o n ) , - i n t e g r a t i n g hydro-power as a component i n the resource endowment of the r e g i o n to seek s o l u t i o n s f o r a p p r o p r i a t e resource-use. 193 F i n a l l y , a broader p e r s p e c t i v e may be p e r c e i v e d , w i t h r e s p e c t to energy i s s u e s . Two q u e s t i o n s were addressed i n the study's i n t r o d u c t i o n , namely: (1) Is the i n c r e a s e i n energy supply j u s t i f i e d ? (2) Is hydro-power development the best a l t e r n a t i v e t o meet the energy demand? These q u e s t i o n s are r e l e v a n t because they are c o n s i d e r e d as e s s e n t i a l t o a compre-hensive l a n d a l l o c a t i o n framework. The f i r s t q u e s t i o n r e f e r s t o socio-economic and p o l i t i c a l circumstances, whereas the second p e r t a i n s to the g e n e r a l b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s framework o u t l i n e d i n Chapter IV. In or d e r t o i n d i c a t e g e n e r a l d i r e c t i o n t o answer these "what" and "how" q u e s t i o n s , two aspects may be d i s c u s s e d . F i r s t , "supply s i d e " c o n s i d e r a t i o n s may o f f e r i n s i g h t on a l t e r -n a t i v e ways t o p r o v i d e power. C u r r e n t l y , B.C. Hydro's second best o p t i o n to hydro-dam i s the thermal energy developed from c o a l f i e l d s (e.g. Hat Creek and E a s t Kootenays). N u c l e a r energy appears t o be a p o t e n t i a l s o l u t i o n a f t e r the t u r n of the century. However, besi d e s these l a r g e s c a l e p r o j e c t s , s m a l l e r s c a l e and i n n o v a t i v e sources of energy m e r i t c o n s i d e r -a t i o n : geothermal (e.g. p o s s i b l y 1,000 megawatts (Mw) a t Meager Creek near Pemberton (Reid, Crowther and P a r t n e r s L t d . , 1979) and i n Mars V a l l e y near K i t i m a t ) , e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y compat-i b l e s m a l l hydro-dams, low head " r u n - o f - t h e - r i v e r " type of a dam, and c o - g e n e r a t i o n from sources such as sawmill r e s i d u e s (hog f u e l p r o d u c t i o n i n the Kootenay may account f o r a c a p a c i t y of 10 Mw (B.C. Hydro, 1975)) tO give a few examples. 194 Second, "demand s i d e " c o n s i d e r a t i o n s - o f t e n n e g l e c t e d -r e q u i r e making a d i s t i n c t i o n , between r e s i d e n t i a l / c o m m e r c i a l use of energy, and i n d u s t r i a l use. In the f i r s t case, energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures c o u l d be undertaken. In the second case, long range economic development s t r a t e g y c o u l d be designed to change the p a t t e r n o f energy demand. One f a c t o r t o examine would be i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . The i n d u s t r i a l development of r e l a t i v e l y energy-poor Vancouver I s l a n d , r e s u l t i n g i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f an expensive t r a n s m i s s i o n system, i s an eloquent example of i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n w i t h l i t t l e concern f o r energy supply. Another f a c t o r t o c o n s i d e r would be t o examine the r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n d u s t r i a l energy use and l e v e l o f p r o -c e s s i n g . For i n s t a n c e , primary p r o d u c t i o n (e.g. pulp and paper, primary metal and mineral) r e q u i r e s a h i g h e r i n p u t of energy per d o l l a r of value-added than secondary manufacturing (Schramm, 1969). P r o v i d i n g f u r t h e r i n c e n t i v e t o process primary products i n t o s e m i - f i n i s h e d or f i n i s h e d goods would l i k e l y reduce the average energy i n p u t . These broader concerns were r a i s e d to s t r e s s the need to d e s i g n an adequate lan d a l l o c a t i o n system. Reducing the com-p l e x i t y of the r e a l i t y by t a k i n g problems i n i s o l a t i o n , f o l l o w i n g ad hoc procedures, does not p r o v i d e necessary elements f o r l a n d a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s . The systems viewpoint may help seek s o l u t i o n s t o o p t i m i z e resource development by r e c o g n i z i n g the i n t e r d e p e n -dency o f r e s o u r c e s . Instead o f s i m p l i f y i n g the problems t o be s o l v e d , f u t u r e r e s e a r c h should be d i r e c t e d toward the d e s i g n i n g of a simple approach i n which complex problems can be anchored. 195 BIBLIOGRAPHY B.C. M i n i s t r y of F o r e s t s A c t , M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , V i c t o r i a , 1978. . F o r e s t A c t . M i n i s t r y o f F o r e s t s , V i c t o r i a , 1978a. B.C. E c o l o g i c a l Reserve Committee. Biogeocliroatici,Zones i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Department of'Lands, F o r e s t s and Water Resources, 197 3, 1 map. B.C. Hydro. The New Outlook f o r the Arrow Lakes. A General Plan f o r the Development o f the Arrow Lakes. B.C. Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y , Vancouver, 1965. . 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W o r r e l l . Unpriced V a l u e s , D e c i s i o n s Without  Market P r i c e s . John Wiley and Sons, New York, 197 9. Slocan V a l l e y Community. Slocan V a l l e y Community F o r e s t  Management P r o j e c t . Slocan, 1974. Sumanic, Ken, and Ray Demarchi. Pe r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . 20 March 1980. Smith, J.H.G. "Some Methods f o r Reducing 'Falldown' E f f e c t s . " Prepared f o r a Meeting o f the Cariboo S e c t i o n , Canadian I n s t i t u t e of F o r e s t r y , P r i n c e George, 13 March 1981. Szaraz, G. Methodologies employees'lors d e l ' e v a l u a t i o n des r e p e r c u s s i o n s envlronnementales. B.'S.F. T h e s i s , F a c u l t e de f o r e s t e r i e , U n i v e r s i t e L a v a l , Quebec, 1978. Task Force on Timber D i s p o s a l . Crown Charges f o r E a r l y Timber  Righ t s . V i c t o r i a , 1974. ' . Timber A p p r a i s a l . P o l i c i e s and • Procedures f o r E v a l u a t i n g Crown Timber i n B r i t i s h Columbia.' V i c t o r i a , 1974a, pp. 9. T a y l o r , M.D. Development o f E l e c t r i c i t y I ndustry i n B r i t i s h Columbia. M.A. T h e s i s , Department of Geography, U n i v e r -s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver, 1965. The P r o v i n c e . "Major C o n f l i c t s F o r e c a s t . " Vancouver, 14 February 19 80, Sec. C, p. 7. Thorp, R. P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . Canadian C e l l u l o s e , Nakusp,.. 13 August 19 80. Waldie, F. P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . Canadian C e l l u l o s e , Vancouver, 4 November 19 80. Walters, J . "A R a t i o n a l S i l v i c u l t u r a l S t r a t e g y f o r B r i t i s h Columbia." U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Research  F o r e s t . Hanney, 19 80. Water Resources S e r v i c e . C o n d i t i o n a l Water L i c e n c e , Duncan Dam. Department o f Lands, F o r e s t s and Water Resources, Water Rights Branch, V i c t o r i a , . 1962, F i l e No. 0236916. p. 2 ( r ) . - • • • . C o n d i t i o n a l Water L i c e n c e , Mica Dam. Department of Lands, F o r e s t s and Water Resources, Water Rights Branch, V i c t o r i a , 1962a, F i l e No. 0236927. . Revelstoke P r o j e c t , C l e a r i n g S p e c i -f i c a t i o n s o f the Water L i c e n c e . M i n i s t r y o f the E n v i r -onment, Water Rights Branch, V i c t o r i a , 1977, F i l e No. 0330118. 203 W a t e r f i e l d 7 D. . C o n t i n e n t a l Waterboy: The Columbia R i v e r  Controversy. C l a r k e , Irwin and Co., Toronto, 1970. ' . Land Grab: One Man Versus the A u t h o r i t y . C l a r k e , Irwin and Co., Toronto, 1973. W i l l i a m s , F.S. C l e a r i n g Costs Estimates f o r the Revelstoke  Dam P r o p o s a l s . F o r e s t S e r v i c e , E n g i n e e r i n g S e r v i c e s D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , F i l e No. . 0.2337.80, 14 September 1972. Wilson, J . People i n the Way. U n i v e r s i t y of Toronto P r e s s , Toronto, 19 73. • " E l e c t r i c / P o w e r Development i n B r i t i s h Columbia: A Case of M e t r o p o l i t a n Dominance?" In Vancouver Western  M e t r o p o l i s . Ed. L . J . Evenden. Western Geography S e r i e s Volume 16, Department of Geography, U n i v e r s i t y of V i c t o r i a , V i c t o r i a , 1978, pp. 79-93. 204 APPENDIX I Data source f o r c a l c u l a t i o n o f f o r e s t l a n d withdrawal and l o s s e s o f p r o d u c t i v i t y due t o hydro-dams i n the Kootenays (Tables 1 and 2). REVELSTOKE DAM Arrowhead PSYU Inventory Data, - BCFS (1980), - Coleman (19 80), - Johnston (1980), M i n i s t r y o f R e c r e a t i o n and Con s e r v a t i o n (1978), - Reid, C o l l i n s and Assoc. (1975), - TFL #2 3 Inventory Data. MICA DAM - 1968 Kinbasket PSYU U n i t Survey - BCFS (1980, 1980b), Farquharson (1974), - F i s h e r (1980), - McHarthy (19 80). DUNCAN DAM - B.C. Hydro (196 7), - BCFS (1980), - KFP (1961, 1964), - M o r r i s o n (19 80). SEVEN MILE DAM - BCFS (1980), E n v i r o c o n (1975), - F o r e s t Cover Maps # 82-F-3-d and 82-F-4-a. 205 HUGH KEENLEYSIDE DAM - B.C. Hydro (1964) , - BCFS (19 80) , - Thorp (19 80), - Waldie (19 80) , - W a t e r f i e l d (1970, p. 82). 206 APPENDIX I I BEHAVIOUR OF TIMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL The r e l a t i o n s h i p between t i m b e r s u p p l y and i t s demand shown i n F i g u r e 10 may be o u t l i n e d g r a p h i c a l l y . The a r e a v e r s u s volume r e l a t i o n s h i p i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n t h e second quadrant o f F i g u r e 22 - A. The f o r e s t l a n d a r e a i s o r d i n -a t e d from good a c c e s s i b l e s i t e s t o poor remote a r e a s . The A(p) c u r v e shows t h a t i t t a k e s more h e c t a r e s t o produce a u n i t o f volume as the c u t i n c r e a s e s . S i m i l a r l y , as t i m b e r volume i s d e v e l o p e d , the s u p p l y c u r v e (S(p)) demonstrates t h a t t h e c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e s a t a p o s i t i v e r a t e . The elements i n c l u d e d i n t h e t i m b e r s u p p l y and demand model are a l s o d e p i c t e d i n F i g u r e 22 - A. The demand s t i m u l u s i s r e p r e s e n t e d by cur v e D, c o n s t a n t a t p r i c e "p" a t a g i v e n t i m e , because i t i s assumed as an e x t e r n a l f a c t o r . H a r v e s t i n g , and Development o f Access Road a re elements o f the s u p p l y c u r v e ( S ( p ) ) . On t h e t i m b e r s u p p l y s i d e o f the model, Land W i t h d r a w a l and Land Put i n F o r e s t r y are l o c a t e d on the v e r t i c a l a x i s o f the F o r e s t Land A r e a . S i l v i c u l t u r e and Land D e g r a d a t i o n a f f e c t the b e h a v i o u r o f A(p) c u r v e ; 207 Figure 22. Graphical representation of the timber supply and demand model.* * Background provided by Hyde (1980). 208 s i l v i c u l t u r e s h i f t s the curve up ( i . e . i n c r e a s e s the volume per h e c t a r e ) , and Land Degradation s h i f t s i t down (reduces the volume per h e c t a r e ) . The h i s t o r i c a l t r e n d of lumber p r i c e i n c r e a s e of 2.5 percent a n n u a l l y (Hyde, 1980), and consequently an upward s h i f t of the demand curve (D), has induced the expansion o f the f o r e s t r y a c t i v i t y from the p r o c e s s i n g m i l l t o more d i s t a n t areas. P o s i t i v e economic r e n t - shown on F i g u r e 22 -A as: p-S(p) - p r o v i d e d i n c e n t i v e to develop more volume. There i s a dynamic e q u i l i b r i u m when S(p) equals D. However, i n B.C. the l e v e l of cut i s not determined by supply and demand i n t e r a c t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , the h a r v e s t i n g l e v e l at maximum s u s t a i n e d y i e l d may l e a d to a negative economic re n t ( S ( p ) > D ) , thus r e s u l t i n g i n a c r o s s - s u b s i d y from good a c c e s s i b l e s i t e s t o poor remote areas. Under normal market c o n d i t i o n s there would be a supply readjustment, however, t h i s i s p r e c l u d e d by the stumpage a p p r a i s a l system. In the event o f the l a n d withdrawal of Aw h e c t a r e s a f f e c t i n g Vw c u b i c meters of wood, F i g u r e 22 -B shows t h a t h a r v e s t i s d i m i n i s h e d t o V-Vw, and supply and area curves s h i f t t o S 1(p) and A 1 ( p ) . Supply curve S 1 1 (p) i l l u s t r a t e s the e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g o p e r a t i n g c o s t s from changes i n access and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p a t t e r n s f o r example. Assuming t h a t p r e v i o u s h a r v e s t l e v e l V has to be maintained, a s t r a t e g y t o f f o l l o w would be t o expand f o r e s t a c t i v i t y i n t o f u r t h e r remote areas. However, i n t a k i n g account of the supply and demand r e l a t i o n s h i p , i t may r e s u l t i n an u n e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t i o n and may prevent the a p p l i c a t i o n of f o r e s t management 209 p r a c t i c e s . Another s t r a t e g y t h a t c o u l d be pursued would be to undertake i n t e n s i v e f o r e s t r y on the best growing s i t e s . Implementing s i l v i c u l t u r e on As h e c t a r e s to i n c r e a s e the volume by Vw c u b i c meters would r e - e s t a b l i s h p r e v i o u s l e v e l o f cut, as shown on F i g u r e 22 -C. The economic r e n t gener-ated by the i n c r e a s e d volume may outweight the c o s t o f s i l v i c u l t u r e (Ps). I f t h i s i s not the case, c o s t o f s i l v i -c u l t u r e should be compared wi t h the foregone economic r e n t r e s u l t i n g from c r o s s - s u b s i d y t o development of remote areas. 210 APPENDIX I I I * CLEARING SPECIFICATIONS FOR REVELSTOKE PROJECT C l e a r i n g 1.1 No s t a n d i n g t r e e tops s h a l l protrude above an e l e -v a t i o n of 1825 f e e t above sea l e v e l . 1.2 Subject to 1.1, above and 1.5, below, treatment of s p e c i f i c h o r i z o n s w i t h i n the r e s e r v o i r area s h a l l be as f o l l o w s : 1.21 Above 1880 - c l e a r i n g s h a l l be undertaken o n l y on areas s p e c i f i e d by the D i s t r i c t F o r e s t e r , where s l o u g h i n g or the environmental damage r e s u l t i n g from f l o o d i n g i s l i k e l y t o occur. 1.22 E l e v a t i o n 1850 - 1880 - where e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , t o t a l c l e a r i n g and d i s p o s a l of d e b r i s w i l l be undertaken i n t h i s zone d u r i n g the i n i t i a l c l e a r i n g phase. Stump h e i g h t s h a l l not exceed 12 inches measured on the u p h i l l s i d e . I f the Downie S l i d e i s not s t a b i l i z e d , and the r e s e r v o i r i s not f l o o d e d to e l e v a t i o n 1880, B r i t i s h Columbia Hydro w i l l be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a l l c o s t s i n c u r r e d to r e h a b i l i t a t e t h i s zone to the s a t i s f a c t i o n o f the D i s t r i c t F o r e s t e r . 1.23 E l e v a t i o n 1 8 2 5 - 1 8 5 0 - a l l merchantable t r e e s s h a l l be f e l l e d and, where f e a s i b l e , removed from the area. A l l r e s i d u a l t r e e s and woody m a t e r i a l , e x c l u s i v e o f stumps, s h a l l be d isposed o f where t e r r a i n permits the use o f mechanical equipment. As per Clause 1.1 above, a l l t r e e s below e l e v a t i o n 1825, both merchantable and non-merchantable, whose tops protrude above e l e v a t i o n . 1825 s h a l l be removed. Above e l e v a t i o n 1825 stump he i g h t s h a l l not exceed 12 inches measured on the u p h i l l s i d e . 1.24 Below e l e v a t i o n 1825 - a l l merchantable t r e e s s h a l l be f e l l e d and removed from the area; Source: Water Resources S e r v i c e , 1977. 211 non-merchantable timber s h a l l be p e r m i t t e d to remain i n p l a c e . A l l r e s i d u a l dead and down t r e e s and woody m a t e r i a l t h a t would f l o a t a f t e r f l o o d i n g s h a l l be d i s p o s e d of where t e r r a i n permits the use o f mechanical equipment. 1.3 Hazard abatement methods s h a l l be at the d i r e c t i o n o f the D i s t r i c t F o r e s t e r . 1.4 On those areas above e l e v a t i o n 1865, having a s i d e slope l e s s than 35% and which are designated by the M i n i s t r y o f R e c r e a t i o n and C o n s e r v a t i o n f o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , a l l stumps s h a l l be removed and the ground landscaped to a uniform s l o p e . 1.5 On those areas d e s i g n a t e d by F i s h and W i l d l i f e Branch as necessary f o r f i s h and w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t d u r i n g the r e s e r v o i r p r e p a r a t i o n stage, no c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s w i l l be undertaken p r i o r to December 31, 19 80; i n no case, w i l l t o t a l acerage o f such areas exceed 10% of the t o t a l l a n d and water area to be f l o o d e d by the Revelstoke 1880 P r o j e c t . 1.6 B r i t i s h Columbia Hydro s h a l l arrange f o r removal of f l o a t i n g d e b r i s to permit n a v i g a t i o n on the main stem of the r e s e r v o i r w i t h i n one year of f i l l i n g t o o p e r a t i n g l e v e l s and s h a l l remove and dispose of a l l f l o a t i n g and s t a n d i n g w a t e r - k i l l e d timber a r i s i n g from the c l e a r i n g o p e r a t i o n w i t h i n a p e r i o d of f i v e years subsequent to f i l l i n g , t o the s a t i s -f a c t i o n of the C o m p t r o l l e r of Water R i g h t s . Upon completion of the above d e b r i s d i s p o s a l programme, the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Hydro f o r c o l l e c t i o n and d i s p o s a l of d e b r i s on the r e s e r v o i r s u r f a c e s h a l l cease. i 

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