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Retail trade area analysis and site selection : a survey of practitioners in Greater Vancouver Graham, Scott 1981

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RETAIL TRADE AREA ANALYSIS AND SITE SELECTION: A SURVEY OF PRACTITIONERS IN GREATER VANCOUVER by SCOTT GRAHAM B.A. Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y . 1979. A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the department of GEOGRAPHY We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d . THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1981. © SCOTT GRAHAM, 1981. In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It i s understood that copying or pu b l i c a t i o n of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 D F - f i ( 2 / 7 9 , ABSTRACT W i t h i n the academic l i t e r a t u r e p e r t a i n i n g t o r e t a i l l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , the prominent f o c u s over the l a s t y e a r s has been on m a t h e m a t i c a l models c a p a b l e o f d i r e c t l y d e l i n -e a t i n g the t r a d e a r e a o f a r e t a i l f a c i l i t y and e s t i m a t i n g the o u t l e t ' s p o t e n t i a l s a l e s volume. T h i s c o n c e n t r a t i o n on m o d e l i n g r e p r e s e n t s an attempt t o add some s t r u c t u r e t o the s i t e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s and t o e l i m i n a t e some o f the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the h i g h l y s u b j e c t i v e and i n t u i t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e methods (such as Applebaum's a n a l o g a p p r o a c h ) , which t e n d t o r e l y e x t r e m e l y h e a v i l y on p a s t l e a r n i n g ex-p e r i e n c e s and the a n a l y s t ' s d e c i s i o n making a b i l i t y . How-e v e r , even though t h e s e m o d e l i n g approaches add some needed s t r u c t u r e and o b j e c t i v e n e s s t o the p r o c e s s , t h e y have f a i l e d t o r e a c h any l e v e l o f acceptance i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d . One of the major purposes o f t h i s s t u d y i s to determine the under-l y i n g r e a s o n s f o r t h i s l a c k o f a d o p t i o n . To g a i n an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e problem a number o f p l a n n e r s , d e v e l o p e r s , c o n s u l t a n t s and s t o r e merchants were i n t e r v i e w e d i n o r d e r t o a s c e r t a i n the methods and p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d . A s i d e from b a s i c m e t h o d o l o g i e s , the q u e s t i o n n a i r e a l s o c o n c e n t r a t e d on a wide v a r i e t y o f l o c a t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a -t i o n s n o t n o r m a l l y d e a l t w i t h i n t h e academic l i t e r a t u r e , such as c o r p o r a t e s t r a t e g i e s . T h i s s u r v e y r e v e a l e d a number of problems i n h e r e n t i n the a p p l i c a t i o n o f the s e h i g h l y s t r u c t u r e d m a t h e m a t i c a l i i models. Most o f the problems stemmed from the l i m i t e d p e r s -p e c t i v e t a k e n . F o r example, o n l y the demand f o r r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s a re c o n s i d e r e d i n the models, a l l s u p p l y c o n s i d -e r a t i o n s are n e g l e c t e d . C o r p o r a t e s t r a t e g i e s , p a s t l e a r n -i n g e x p e r i e n c e s and most f i n a n c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s are i g n o r e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s e approaches t e n d to e x c l u d e a number o f i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s t h a t are s u s p e c t e d t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on d e t e r m i n i n g consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . Some of the more i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s i d e n t i f i e d were: t e n a n t mix, the l o c a t i o n o f the t e n a n t s w i t h i n the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , a c c e s s i b i l i t y , an a r r a y o f s i t e q u a l i t y f a c t o r s , and popu-l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a need f o r some s t r u c t u r e t o be added t o t h o s e methods used i n p r a c t i c e , i t i s apparent the models are too i n f l e x i b l e and l i m i t e d f o r the type o f s i t u a t i o n f o r which t h e y are i n t e n d e d . The dynamic n a t u r e o f the d e v e l o p -m e n t a l p r o c e s s r e q u i r e s more f l u i d i t y i n the a n a l y t i c a l app-roac h e s u s e d , s i n c e each s i t u a t i o n p r e s e n t s such a unique s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s . U n l e s s the e n t i r e d e s i g n o f the models are changed i n a d r a m a t i c way, t h e y are never l i k e l y t o be used i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d . T h i s , however, i s not l i a b l e t o happen i n the immediate f u t u r e s i n c e the d i r e c t i o n t h a t most of the academic r e s e a r c h seems to be t a k i n g i s towards making minor a d a p t a t i o n s t o model forms t h a t are i m p r a c t i c a l by t h e i r g e n e r a l d e s i g n and n a t u r e . T h e r e f o r e , u n t i l r e s e a r c h t a k e s on a new d i r e c t i o n , i t i s n o t l i k e l y t h a t any p r a c t i c a l advances w i l l be made. I n e s s e n c e , the need f o r some new d i r e c t i o n s i n a c a -demic r e s e a r c h , the urgency f o r a c l o s e r a s s o c i a t i o n be-tween the t h e o r i s t s and those i n b u s i n e s s , and the ne c e s -s i t y f o r more h o l i s t i c approaches are among the more im-p o r t a n t i n f e r e n c e s made w i t h i n t h i s t h e s i s . i v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would l i k e t o extend s p e c i a l thanks t o my s u p e r v i s o r , Dr. Kenneth D e n i k e , who has g i v e n i n v a l u a b l e guidance and a d v i c e t h r o u g h o u t my graduate programme. I am a l s o g r a t e -f u l t o the o t h e r members of my committee - Dr. Ro b e r t K e l l y and Dr. R o b e r t N o r t h who r e v i e w e d t h i s m a n u s c r i p t and made many u s e f u l s u g g e s t i o n s . As w e l l , I am i n d e b t e d t o P r o f e s s o r Warren G i l l o f Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y f o r h i s encouragement and d e v o t i o n t o my academic p u r s u i t s . I would a l s o l i k e t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o the many anonymous i n t e r v i e w p a r t i c i p a n t s w i t h o u t whom t h i s s t u d y would not have been p o s s i b l e . F i n a l l y , I would l i k e t o e x p r e s s my a p p r e c i a t i o n t o my mother, Norma, who was w i l l i n g t o assume the u n e n v i a b l e t a s k o f t y p i n g t h i s m a n u s c r i p t and t o my f a t h e r , James, who as a l w a y s , gave me the a d v i c e and s u p p o r t so o f t e n needed. v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE TWO THREE ABSTRACT ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES INTRODUCTION A. Statement o f the problem B. F e a t u r e s o f a r e t a i l t r a d i n g a r e a ( i ) The shape of a t r a d e a r e a ( i i ) Trade a r e a s i z e C. O u t l i n e o f c h a p t e r s TRADE AREA ANALYSIS MODELS A. I n t r o d u c t i o n B. A r e v i e w o f the r e t a i l r e l a t e d g r a v i t y models ( i ) D e t e r m i n i s t i c models ( i i ) P r o b a b i l i s t i c models ( i i i ) B e h a v i o r a l models C. P r e d i c t i n g p o t e n t i a l s a l e s volume D. The a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the v a r i a b l e s E. Problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e s t i m a t i n g the f r i c t i o n of d i s t a n c e parameter F. Summary TRADE AREA ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE A. I n t r o d u c t i o n Page i i v v i v i i i i x 1 k 9 12 17 17 20 21 25 30 3^ 36 k6 52 59 59 v i CHAPTER Page THREE B. Methods o f t r a d e a r e a a n a l y s i s 62 ( i ) Case s t u d y one 62 ( i i ) Case s t u d y two 69 ( i i i ) Case s t u d y t h r e e 77 C. C o n c l u s i o n 87 FOUR LOCATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN MOST THEORETICAL APPROACHES 92 A. I n t r o d u c t i o n 92 B. A c c e s s i b i l i t y 93 C. S i t e q u a l i t y f a c t o r s 97 D. Tenant mix 100 E. L o c a t i n g the t e n a n t w i t h i n the sho p p i n g c e n t e r 106 F. P r e d i c t i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth 113 G. P o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 116 H. L o c a t i n g s t o r e s as p a r t o f a network 120 I . -Zoning 123 J . F r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e 125 K. F u t u r e t r e n d s 129 L. C o n c l u s i o n 137 FIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 144 A. I n t r o d u c t i o n 144 B. The v a r i a b l e problem 1^ 4-4 C. M o d e l i n g - A p r a c t i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e ? 1^8 BIBLIOGRAPHY 156 APPENDIX A: DEVELOPER'S QUESTIONNAIRE 16? APPENDIX B: DEPARTMENT STORE'S QUESTION-NAIRE 170 APPENDIX C: CONSULTANT'S QUESTIONNAIRE 17^ APPENDIX D: SUPERMARKET'S QUESTIONNAIRE 177 APPENDIX E: RETAIL TRADE AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS 180 v i i LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE Page 2.1 H y p o t h e t i c a l t r a d e a r e a as produced hy the b r e a k i n g p o i n t model 24 2.2 P r o b a b i l i t y c o n t o u r s as produced by the H u f f model. 2? v i i i LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 3.1 Comparisons o f f a m i l y budgets i n f o u r major west c o a s t s t a n d a r d m e t r o p o l i t a n s t a t i s t i c a l a r e a s 75 3.2 R e t a i l e x p e n d i t u r e r e l a t i o n s h i p s - 1971 P r o v i n c e o f B r i t i s h C olumbia 76 3«3 L o c a t i o n t ype and supermarket s a l e s d i s t r i -b u t i o n • 79 3 . ^ Food s t o r e p o t e n t i a l : market share approach 88 i x CHAPTER ONE  INTRODUCTION (A) Statement o f the problem. The f i e l d o f r e t a i l l o c a t i o n and s i t e s e l e c t i o n i s an a r e a of i n t e r e s t t h a t has been i n a d e q u a t e l y d e a l t w i t h by most g e o g r a p h e r s , economists and o t h e r s i n t e r e s t e d i n the l o c a t i o n o f r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n u r ban a r e a s . A g r e a t p e r c e n t a g e o f the r e l e v a n t s t u d i e s have c o n c e n t r a t e d ex-c l u s i v e l y on a t t e m p t i n g t o c r e a t e m a t h e m a t i c a l models f o r d e l i n e a t i n g and i n t u r n , a n a l y z i n g the t r a d e a r e a o f the a c t i v i t y c o n c e r n e d . The f o c u s o f the s e models has been s t r i c t l y on demand w i t h no c o n s i d e r a t i o n g i v e n t o s u p p l y . T h i s c o n c e n t r a t i o n on m o d e l i n g r e p r e s e n t s an attempt t o add some s t r u c t u r e t o the p r o c e s s and t o e l i m i n a t e some o f the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the h i g h l y s u b j e c t i v e and i n t u i t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e methods, which t e n d t o r e l y e x t r e m e l y h e a v i l y on p a s t l e a r n i n g e x p e r i e n c e s and on the a n a l y s t ' s d e c i s i o n making a b i l i t y . Even though the mo d e l i n g approaches addcsome needed s t r u c t u r e and o b j e c t i v e n e s s t o t h e p r o c e s s , t h e y have f a i l e d t o r e a c h any l e v e l o f acceptance i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d . A l t h o u g h i t can be s a i d t h a t the models have a degree o f t h e o r e t i c a l v a l u e , t h e y s i m p l y do not s a t i s -f y the needs o f the r e t a i l i n d u s t r y . Those t h e o r i s t s who ad-v o c a t e the use of r e t a i l l o c a t i o n models c l e a r l y d i s p l a y a l a c k o f knowledge o f the s t r u c t u r e o f the i n d u s t r y , the cons-t r a i n t s t h a t the p r a c t i t i o n e r s must work w i t h i n , and the com-p l e x i t i e s o f the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s . 2 D e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t t h e r e are a number o f i m m e d i a t e l y apparent d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d w i t h the use o f r e t a i l l o c a -t i o n models, i t i s f e l t t h a t w i t h o u t an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f th e methods used i n p r a c t i c e f o r a n a l y z i n g p o t e n t i a l r e -t a i l s i t e s , t he v a l u e and a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f the r e t a i l models i n r e a l w o r l d s i t u a t i o n s cannot t r u l y be d e t e r m i n e d . Due t o a v o i d i n the l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o t h i s a s p e c t , the b e s t means o f g a i n i n g such an u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s to t a l k t o the pe o p l e p r e s e n t l y i n v o l v e d i n the p l a n n i n g and development o f such f a c i l i t i e s . Thus a number o f p l a n n e r s , d e v e l o p e r s , con-s u l t a n t s and s t o r e merchants were i n t e r v i e w e d i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y the methods and p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d . The r e s u l t s o f t h i s t a s k c l e a r l y demonstrated a number o f s e r i o u s d e f -i c i e n c i e s t h a t would be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r a c t i c a l app-l i c a t i o n o f these models. One o f the more c r i t i c a l f l a w s w i t h the models d e v e l -oped t o date i s t h a t t h e y f a i l t o c o n s i d e r a number o f v a r -i a b l e s t h a t are s u s p e c t e d o f h a v i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e on consumer p a t r o n a g e p a t t e r n s . One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the l i m i t e d range of f a c t o r s r e p r e s e n t e d i s t h a t many o f the s a l i e n t v a r i a b l e s cannot be d i r e c t l y q u a n t i f i e d and thus cannot be v a l i d l y i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the model. F o r example, how does one a f f i x a q u a n t i t a t i v e measure t h a t would a d e q u a t e l y r e p r e s e n t a p e r s o n s p e r c e p t i o n o f a s t o r e ' s atmosphere? A l -though a number o f a t t e m p t s have been made, the r e s u l t s have been l e s s t h a n s a t i s f a c t o r y . T h i s f o r c e s the r e s e a r c h e r t o make c e r t a i n assumptions t o c o n t r o l the i n f l u e n c e o f the s e 3 v a r i a b l e s . However, even though the o m i s s i o n o f t h e s e f a c t o r s i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e , i t does n o t excuse t h e i r n e g l e c t . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a need f o r some s t r u c t u r e t o be added t o those methods used i n p r a c t i c e , i t i s apparent t h a t the models are s i m p l y too s t r u c t u r e d f o r the type o f s i t u a t i o n f o r w hich t h e y are i n t e n d e d . The dynamic n a t u r e o f the dev-e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s r e q u i r e s more f l u i d i t y i n the a n a l y t i c a l approaches used, s i n c e each s i t u a t i o n p r e s e n t s such a unique s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s . A n o t h e r major problem t h a t the i n t e r v i e w s i d e n t i f i e d was t h a t t h e models were i n c a p a b l e of a c c o u n t i n g f o r c o r p -o r a t e s t r a t e g i e s and p a s t l e a r n i n g e x p e r i e n c e s . The i m p o r t -ance o f t h i s s h o r t c o m i n g cannot be overemphasized, as w i l l be-come i n c r e a s i n g l y e v i d e n t as t h i s t h e s i s p r o g r e s s e s . U n l e s s the e n t i r e d e s i g n o f the models are changed i n a d r a m a t i c way, t h e y are n e v e r l l i k e l y t o be used i n the b u s i -ness w o r l d . T h i s , however, i s not l i a b l e t o happen i n the immediate f u t u r e s i n c e the d i r e c t i o n t h a t most o f the acade-mic r e s e a r c h seems t o be t a k i n g i s towards making minor adap-t i o n s to model forms t h a t are i m p r a c t i c a l by t h e i r g e n e r a l d e s i g n and n a t u r e . T h e r e f o r e , u n t i l r e s e a r c h t a k e s on a new d i r e c t i o n , i t i s n o t l i k e l y any p r a c t i c a l advances w i l l be made. The p r i m a r y purpose o f t h i s work i s t o determine the v a l u e ( o r r a t h e r , l a c k o f i t ) o f the m o d e l i n g approaches as a p r a c t i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e t o the methods p r e s e n t l y employed i n b u s i n e s s f o r a n a l y z i n g the u t i l i t y o f a r e t a i l s i t e , i n l i g h t 4 o f : the approaches used i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d ; the cons-t r a i n t s p l a c e d upon the p r a c t i t i o n e r s ; the s t r u c t u r e o f the i n d u s t r y ; and, i n g e n e r a l , the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s . A r e l a t e d o b j e c t i v e i s t o determine whether or not the v a r -i a b l e s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the models, i n t h e m s e l v e s , are s u f f i -c i e n t d e t e r m i n a n t s o f consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . The need f o r some new d i r e c t i o n s i n academic r e s e a r c h , the urgency f o r a c l o s e r a s s o c i a t i o n between the t h e o r i s t s and those i n b u s i n e s s , and the n e c e s s i t y f o r more w h o l i s t i c approaches are among the more i m p o r t a n t i n f e r e n c e s made w i t h i n t h i s t h e s i s . (B) F e a t u r e s o f a r e t a i l t r a d i n g a r e a . B e f o r e the v a r i o u s methods used f o r a n a l y z i n g r e t a i l t r a d i n g a r e a s can be p r o p e r l y a s s e s s e d , i t i s e s s e n t i a l to u n d e r s t a n d some of the g e n e r a l f e a t u r e s o f a t r a d e a r e a . T h e r e f o r e an o v e r v i e w o f some o f the e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s t h a t have been conducted c o n c e r n i n g the shape and the a r e a l e x t e n t o f t r a d e a r e a s would s e r v e as a v a l u a b l e f o u n d a t i o n . Thus t h i s s e c t i o n d e a l s w i t h t h e s e two c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . ( i ) The shape o f a t r a d e a r e a . One of the e a r l i e s t c o n c e p t s d e v e l o p e d t o e x p l a i n the shape of t r a d e a r e a s was c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y . W i t h i n the l i m i t s o f i t s b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s , t h i s t h e o r y r e c o g n i z e s t h a t the boundary of a s i n g l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t ' s t r a d e a r e a w i l l be c i r c u l a r , but t h a t these c i r c l e s must o v e r l a p i n o r d e r t o ensure t h a t a l l p o t e n t i a l consumers are s e r v e d by a c e n t e r w i t h i n the maximum d i s t a n c e t h a t consumers are w i l l i n g t o 5 t r a v e l t o purchase the g i v e n good ( u s u a l l y r e f e r r e d t o as the range o f a good). Assuming t h a t t h e s e consumers are economi-c a l l y r a t i o n a l men who want t o consume as much as t h e y can f o r t h e i r money, t h e y w i l l i n v a r i a b l y p a t r o n i z e the most a c c e s s i b l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t i n o r d e r t o m i n i m i z e t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . As a r e s u l t the ar e a s o f o v e r l a p w i l l be b i s e c t e d and the t r a d e a r e a s w i l l t a k e the shape o f hexagons. ^ The r e s u l t i n g h e x a g o n a l l a t t i c e w i l l a l l o w f o r the h i g h e s t l e v e l of t r a d e a r e a p a c k i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i n c e one o f the u n d e r l y i n g assumptions o f c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y i s t h a t the consumer i s a r a t i o n a l economic man, w i t h d i s t a n c e m i n i m i z a t i o n as a p r i m a r y g o a l , a l l r a t i o n a l consumers w i t h i n the c e n t e r ' s h e x a g o n a l t r a d e a r e a w i l l p a t r o n i z e the c e n t e r f o r a l l o f the d e s i r e d goods t h a t i t o f f e r s . These r a t h e r s i m p l i s t i c c o n c e p t s have been r e f u t e d i n l a t e r works ( i e B u c k l i n 1971, Applebaum 196l) p a r t i a l l y be-cause o f t h e t h e o r i e s assumptions t h a t consumers have the power of r e a l i z i n g d i s t a n c e i n a b s o l u t e terms and t h a t t h e r e i s an absence o f p r o d u c t d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . D i f f e r e n t i a t i o n o c c u r s whenever t h e r e i s a b a s i s f o r d i s t i n g u i s h i n g the goods or s e r v i c e s o f one s e l l e r from th o s e o f o t h e r s . D i f f e r e n t i a -t i o n r e l a t e s n o t o n l y t o the good i t s e l f b ut a l s o t o the con-d i t i o n s s u r r o u n d i n g the s e l l , such as the g e n e r a l tone o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t , the s e l l e r s way o f d o i n g b u s i n e s s , h i s r e p u t a -t i o n , c o u r t e s y , e f f i c i e n c y , and p e r s o n a l l i n k s w i t h customers and employees. ^ I n ess e n c e , r e c e n t t h e o r y d i s c a r d s the n o t i o n t h a t a l l consumers w i l l p a t r o n i z e the n e a r e s t s t o r e s e l l i n g 6 the d e s i r e d good i n f a v o r of a more p r o b a b i l i s t i c a s s e r t i o n . As B u c k l i n n o t e s , " A l t h o u g h the b o u n d a r i e s o f competing r e -t a i l t r a d e a r e a s are drawn by c l a s s i c a l c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r -i s t s t o r e p r e s e n t s h a r p d i v i s i o n s o f consumer p a t r o n a g e , such d e m a r c a t i o n s are a r b i t r a r y , a t r a d i n g a r e a seldom, i f e v e r , comes t o a p r e c i p i t o u s h a l t a t c o n t a c t w i t h competing c e n t e r s i n f l u e n c e . I n s t e a d , t h e r e i s a s h a r i n g o f p p a t r o n a g e w h i c h c r e a t e s an a r e a o f o v e r l a p between zones." As P r e d might a l s o i n d i c a t e , B u c k l i n n o t e s t h a t t h i s o v e r l a p i s p a r t i a l l y the r e s u l t o f the a g g r e g a t i o n o f a number o f consumers b e h a v i o r a l p a t t e r n s f o r heterogeneous d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s e s , l i k e l y due t o d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f i n f o r m a t i o n and d i f f e r i n g a b i l i t i e s t o a c t upon t h i s i n -f o r m a t i o n . C u l t u r a l backgrounds, the mode o f t r a n s p o r t em-p l o y e d , and the income l e v e l o f the consumer are i m p o r t a n t c a u s a l f a c t o r s f o r t h i s o v e r l a p . As a r e s u l t , e m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n o f t r a d e a r e a o v e r l a p w i l l be a f f e c t e d by the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the groups w i t h i n the a r e a c o n c e rned. I t has a l s o been n o t e d by B u c k l i n t h a t , I n g e n e r a l , the e x t e n t o f o v e r l a p may be r e -garded as a f u n c t i o n o f consumer s e n s i t i v i t y t o p r o d u c t and t r a v e l . The former i s the im-p o r t a n c e a t t a c h e d t o f i n d i n g the r i g h t p r i c e , q u a l i t y and s e r v i c e when b u y i n g , and t o the p e r c e p t i o n t h a t t h e s e v a r y among the r e t a i l o u t l e t s from w h i c h the consumer might buy. Consumers s e a r c h more f o r h i g h e r or f l u c t -u a t i n g p r i c e i t e m s . S i m i l a r i l y , t h o s e t o whom s t y l e , c o l o r and m a t e r i a l a re more i m p o r t a n t t h a n brand names, w i l l go out o f t h e i r way t o be s a t i s f i e d . T h i s p r o p e n s i t y t o s e a r c h , v a r y -i n g by p r o d u c t c a t e g o r i e s , s h o u l d c r e a t e g r e a t e r ^ o v e r l a p f o r some p r o d u c t s t h a n o t h e r s . 7 I t i s o b v i o u s t h a t the f u r t h e r the c e n t e r s are a p a r t , the l e s s the o v e r l a p because the c o s t o f t r a v e l becomes more s i g n i f i c a n t a v a r i a b l e i n the consumer's d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . I t can be seen t h a t the main d i f f e r e n c e i n the t r e a t -ment o f demand between the two v i e w p o i n t s i s t h a t i n c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y , t r a n s p o r t c o s t s e a t a t demand, whereas compe-t i t i o n e a t s a t demand under t h e p r o b a b i l i s t i c argument. The t r a d i t i o n a l n o t i o n o f c i r c u l a r t r a d e a r e a s has a l s o come under a good d e a l of a t t a c k . P a r r and Denike f o r ex-ample, n o t e d t h a t t r a d e a r e a s would o n l y be c i r c u l a r i n comp-l e t e absence o f c o m p e t i t i o n (which i n t u r n would r e q u i r e r e s t r i c t i o n o f e n t r y ) . The absence o f any n a t u r a l b a r r i e r s ( r i v e r s , v a r i a t i o n s i n l a n d forms e t c . ) o r p s y c h o l o g i c a l b a r r i e r s ( p o l i t i c a l or c u l t u r a l b r e a k s ) would a l s o be a nec-e s s i t y f o r c i r c u l a r t r a d e a r e a s . C l e a r l y , such i d e a l s i t u a -t i o n s are n o t g e n e r a l l y p r e s e n t w i t h i n an urban l a n d s c a p e . N e l s o n , i n an attempt to determine some o f the under-l y i n g r e a s o n s f o r the obser v e d v a r i a t i o n i n t r a d i n g a r e a shape o u t l i n e d some o f the b e h a v i o r a l r e l a t e d f a c t o r s which he c o n s i d e r e d t o have a s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e on consumer p a t r o n a g e p a t t e r n s , and t h u s , t r a d e a r e a shape. These were: 1) Shoppers w i l l move towards dominant t r a d i n g a r e a s ( i e C.B.D.). 2) Shoppers w i l l n o t go t h r o u g h one c e n t e r t o g e t t o a n o t h e r c e n t e r w i t h e q u a l f a c i l i t i e s . 3) Shoppers w i l l p a t r o n i z e the c l o s e s t c e n t e r w i t h 8 e q u a l f a c i l i t i e s . 4) Shoppers w i l l t e n d t o f o l l o w t r a d i t i o n a l c i r c u l a -t i o n p a t t e r n s . ^ The r e s u l t i n g t r a d e a r e a s h o u l d he somewhat e l l i p t i c a l i n shape w i t h the l a r g e r a x i s away from the C.B.D. Simons a r r i v e d a t s i m i l a r c o n c l u s i o n s but added t h a t t h i s d i s t o r t e d c e n t e r i s the r e s u l t o f d e c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n w i t h d i s t a n c e from the dominant c e n t e r because o f the r a d i a l p a t t e r n o f t r a n s p o r t r o u t e s , and the need t o s e r v i c e a l l a r e a s , w h i c h i n t u r n causes the w i d t h o f the market a r e a t o i n c r e a s e w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e from the dominant c e n t e r . S i m i l a r i l y , Applebaum and Cohen c o n c l u d e d t h a t " . . . s t r e e t p a t t e r n s p l a y the most s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n m o u l d i n g such shapes ( e l l i p t i c a l o r i r r e g u l a r ) and t h e y f r e q u e n t l y r u n c o u n t e r t o what would t h e o r e t i c a l l y be d e s i r e d . " 1 0 D e s p i t e the body of work t h a t has been done•/dealing w i t h the shape of t r a d i n g a r e a s , t h e r e i s s t i l l a g r e a t d e a l more r e f i n e m e n t r e q u i r e d . I t appears t h a t n e i t h e r the t r a d i t i o n a l h e x a g o n a l or c i r c u l a r t r a d e a r e a s o f f e r s u f f i c i e n t e x p l a n a -t i o n . The c r i t e r i a used i n t h e s e e a r l i e r s t u d i e s are b o t h i n -complete and o v e r s i m p l i f i e d . Nor does the e l l i p t i c a l shaped t r a d i n g a r e a o f f e r much of an improvement. The major f l a w i n a g r e a t d e a l o f the s t u d i e s i s the i n h e r e n t desire"'.to a r r -i v e a t a s i n g l e g e o m e t r i c shape w h i c h a l l t r a d e a r e a s f i t . C o n t r a r y t o t h i s n o t i o n , i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e r e i s no s i n g l e shape t h a t can s a t i s f a c t o r i l y d e s c r i b e the shape o f a l l t r a d -i n g a r e a s . Each c e n t e r , s t o r e , or good f o r t h a t m a t t e r , has 9 a unique shaped t r a d e a r e a w h i c h u l t i m a t e l y depends upon the makeup of the u r ban l a n d s c a p e and the p e o p l e o p e r a t i n g w i t h -i n t h a t l a n d s c a p e . ( i i ) Trade a r e a s i z e . C l o s e l y a l i g n e d t o those s t u d i e s d e a l i n g w i t h the gen-e r a l shape o f a t r a d e a r e a are t h o s e concerned w i t h i t s s i z e , and i n t u r n , t h o s e f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g i t s a r e a l ex-t e n t . Knowledge o f a t r a d e a r e a ' s s i z e n o t o n l y p r o v i d e s a b a s i s f o r e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e s a l e s , but a l s o a i d s i n d e t e r -m i n i n g i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r l a n d , b u i l d i n g s and f i x -t u r e s , as w e l l as the k i n d and e x t e n t o f merchandise o f f e r -i n g s , p r o m o t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s , e t c . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d a t the o u t s e t t h a t the t r a d e a r e a has come t o be viewed by most, n o t as a g e o g r a p h i c a l f a c t p e r s e , but as an a r e a c r e a t e d e n t i r e l y by the response and b e h a v i o r o f each i n d i v i d u a l t o a wide v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s . A t r a d e a r e a i s a dynamic phenomenon; i t i s c o n c e i v a b l e t h a t the b o u n d a r i e s c o u l d be s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t i n s i z e d u r i n g d i f f e r e n t days o f the week, or even d i f f e r e n t hours o f the day ( p r i m a r i l y depending upon the f r e q u e n c y o f purchase a t a g i v e n t i m e ) . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e s l i g h t f l u c t u a t i o n s are m i n i m a l s i n c e the t r u e importance o f d e l i n -e a t i n g the t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s i s t h a t i t d e f i n e s the a r e a o f s t u d y . As N e l s o n s t a t e s "...the t r a d e a r e a l i m i t s have no i m p o r t a n t s i g n i f i c a n c e t h e m s e l v e s . There i s a b s o l u t e l y n o t h i n g t h a t happens on one s i d e o f t h e l i n e t h a t does n o t happen on the o t h e r s i d e . The l i n e i s m e r e l y an a r b i t r a r y 10 boundary t o e x c l u d e from the a r e a o f r e s e a r c h those p l a c e s where the amount o f b u s i n e s s t h a t might come to the c e n t e r f a d e s out t o the l i n e of i m m e a s u r a b i l i t y , n o t any assump-12 t i o n t h a t p e o p l e are g o i n g t o a c t d i f f e r e n t l y . " Applebaum, i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the R e a l E s t a t e C o r p o r a -t i o n i d e n t i f i e d a number of f a c t o r s which t h e y s u g g e s t e d 13 i n f l u e n c e d the s i z e o f the t r a d e a r e a . ^ They a r e : 1) E x i s t i n g c o m p e t i t i v e a l i g n m e n t , ( t a k e s i n t o account the t y p e s o f goods o f f e r e d as w e l l as the d i s t a n c e t o compe-t i t o r s ) - I t i s g e n e r a l l y b e l i e v e d t h a t c l o s e l y spaced compe-t i t i o n a f f e c t s the i n t e n s i t y o f purchase w i t h i n the market ar e a s more t h a n the b o u n d a r i e s o f the a r e a s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s becoming more d i f f i c u l t f o r most s t o r e s t o i d e n t i f y t h e i r c o m p e t i t i o n because t h e r e i s i n c r e a s i n g l y becoming an o v e r l a p p i n g o f merchandise l i n e s among p r e v i o u s l y d i s t i n c t s t o r e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , the e v o l u t i o n o f the "super drug" s t o r e , w h i c h i n a d d i t i o n t o i t s t y p i c a l merchandise i s now c a r r y i n g a f a i r l y wide range of goods; cameras, hardware, s t e r e o equipment and s u p p l i e s , t o name j u s t a few examples. T h i s , o f c o u r s e , g r e a t l y e f f e c t s the c o m p e t i t i v e a l i g n m e n t as i t i s p e r c e i v e d by the consumer, hence h i s patronage p a t -t e r n s . 2) P o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y ( c i t y s i z e ) - Most s t o r e ' s t r a d -i n g a r e a s t e n d t o be s m a l l e r i n s i z e i n l a r g e r , d e n s e l y popu-l a t e d c i t i e s t h a n i n the s m a l l e r c i t y . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y due t o two f a c t o r s : l ) A denser p o p u l a t i o n a l l o w s f o r the c l o s e r s p a c i n g o f o u t l e t s , and; 2) The f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e 11 i s g r e a t e r . 3) A c c e s s i b i l i t y . ( i n c l u d e s t r a v e l t i m e , t r a v e l mode e t c . ) - As H u f f notes., "The a n t i c i p a t e d c o s t s o f t r a n s p o r t a -t i o n , the time and e f f o r t i n v o l v e d i n p r e p a r i n g f o r , as w e l l as making the t r i p , and o t h e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h a t must be f o r -gone, t e n d t o b r i n g about a c o n t r a c t i o n i n t r a v e l distances."" 1"^ C l e a r l y , t he mode o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a v a i l a b l e t o t h e consumer has a g r e a t impact on the c o s t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and hence, h i s w i l l i n g n e s s t o t r a v e l . The impact o f the au t o m o b i l e b e i n g the o b v i o u s example. ^) Income - On the whole i t i s f e l t t h a t h i g h e r income consumers w i l l t r a v e l f u r t h e r , more o f t e n , and v i s i t more 16 c e n t e r s . 5) Image o f the f a c i l i t y . ( t y p e o f goods, merchandise mix, p r i c e , q u a l i t y , s e l e c t i o n , atmosphere, r e p u t a t i o n , e t c . ) -A l o w e r i n g o f p r i c e s f o r example, g e n e r a l l y means an expanded t r a d e a r e a s i n c e p e o p l e are w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l f u r t h e r f o r goods when t h e y b e l i e v e t h e y can g e t the same good cheaper t h a n t h e y c o u l d a t a c l o s e r o u t l e t . A l t h o u g h t h i s i s a commonly h e l d b e l i e f , R o b e r t E t e n b e r g ' s o b s e r v a t i o n s e x h i b i t i t s d i m i n i s h i n g i m p o r t a n c e , l a r g e l y due t o i n c r e a s i n g d i s -c r e t i o n a r y incomes. He n o t e s "...convenience c o s t s i n terms o f time and ease o f sho p p i n g have become r e l a t i v e l y more i m p o r t a n t t o the consumer, w h i l e p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s have had a c o m p a r i t i v e l y h i g h i n d i f f e r e n c e t e f f e c t on the consumer 17 except f o r commodities i n the sh o p p i n g goods c a t e g o r y . " ' I n terms o f the type o f good, i t i s g e n e r a l l y the case t h a t 12 t h e market a r e a s f o r b o t h s p e c i a l t y and s h o p p i n g goods are w i d e r t h a n f o r convenience goods. Consumers are a l s o g e n e r a l l y w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l f u r t h e r f o r h i g h e r q u a l i t y goods, o r where the s t o r e i s endowed w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y s u p e r i o r s e l -e c t i o n , atmosphere, r e p u t a t i o n e t c . 6) L o c a t i o n o f the f a c i l i t y - A s t o r e ' s t r a d i n g a r e a can be a f f e c t e d by such t h i n g s as i t s v i s i b i l i t y , the p h y s i -c a l c o n d i t i o n o f the s u r r o u n d i n g a r e a s , i t s c o m p a t a b i l i t y w i t h nearby s t o r e s e t c . , i n f a i r l y o b v i o u s ways. 7) A t t r a c t i o n / r e s i s t a n c e f a c t o r s - A t t r a c t i o n : a v a i l a -b i l i t y o f merchandise, p r i c e a d v e r t i s i n g , p h y s i c a l c o m f o r t s , p a r k i n g , a c c e s s i b i l i t y , e t c . R e s i s t a n c e : t r a f f i c f r i c t i o n . A l t h o u g h o t h e r a u t h o r s ( i e V a i l l e e t ' a l 1952) have a l s o produced e m p i r i c a l l y d e r i v e d l i s t s o f f a c t o r s t h a t t h e y have found t o have an e f f e c t upon the s i z e o f a t r a d e a r e a , A p p l e -baum's c r i t e r i a seems t o be f a i r l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , and f o r the purpose o f t h i s s t u d y no o t h e r s s h a l l be c o n s i d e r e d . The p r e s e n t a t i o n and c u r s o r y o v e r v i e w o f t h e s e f a c t o r s i s s i m p l y i n t e n d e d t o be a t o o l t h r ough which t o e v a l u a t e some o f the methods and m o d e l s . t h a t have been deve l o p e d i n an attempt to d e l i n e a t e t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s . I t w i l l become c l e a r i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s t h a t n e i t h e r the t r a d e a r e a models nor the methods used i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d c o v e r s a wide enough range of t h e s e key v a r i a b l e s . Thus many o f the f l a w s i n the approaches w i l l become a p p a r e n t . (C) O u t l i n e o f c h a p t e r s . Chapter 2 - i s b a s i c a l l y a r e v i e w o f the r e l e v a n t 13 academic l i t e r a t u r e . A f t e r e s t a b l i s h i n g the prominance o f the g r a v i t y model i n t h e o r e t i c a l work, a c r i t i q u e o f a r e p -r e s e n t a t i v e sample of g r a v i t y models i s g i v e n . T h i s s'erves b o t h t o i d e n t i f y major t r e n d s i n the l i t e r a t u r e and t o i d e n -t i f y a number o f problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the m o d e l i n g app-r o a c h t o t r a d e a r e a a n a l y s i s . F o r example, one o f the major problems i d e n t i f i e d w i t h the a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s e models, was d e t e r m i n i n g the s a l i e n t v a r i a b l e s t o i n c o r p o r a t e . A second major problem was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e s t i m a t i n g the lambda ( f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e exponent) v a l u e f o r the model under d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s . I n t u r n , t h e s e problems were d i s c u s s e d and a n a l y z e d b o t h from a p r a c t i c a l and t h e o r e t i -c a l p e r s p e c t i v e . C h a p t e r 3 - c o n s i s t s o f a r e v i e w o f some of the approaches, f o r s e l e c t i n g and a n a l y z i n g r e t a i l l o c a t i o n s used by the p r a c -t i t i o n e r s . Of the v a r i o u s methods t h a t were i d e n t i f i e d i n the i n t e r v i e w s , t h r e e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e case s t u d i e s are examined. A s i d e from the obvi o u s purpose o f g a i n i n g an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the methods employed i n p r a c t i c e and how t h e y d i f f e r from those advocated i n t h e o r y , t h i s c h a p t e r a l s o a s s i s t s i n i d e n -t i f y i n g some o f the i n h e r e n t problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the t h e o r e t i c a l a pproaches. C h a p t e r ^ - d i s c u s s e s some o f the problems i d e n t i f i e d i n the p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r s i n g r e a t e r d e p t h . F o r example, c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o a v a r i e t y of i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h a t are o f t e n i g n o r e d i n the academic l i t -e r a t u r e . The m a j o r i t y o f the s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s c o n c e r n 1^ d e t e r m i n a n t s o f consumer patronage c h o i c e and i n c l u d e such f a c t o r s a s : a c c e s s i b i l i t y , s i t e q u a l i t y f a c t o r s , t e n a n t mix o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , the l o c a t i o n o f the t e n a n t s w i t h i n the c e n t e r , e t c . As w e l l , a number of o t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t t e n d t o c o n s t r a i n the l o c a t i o n o f a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r such as c o r p -o r a t e s t r a t e g i e s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y on the p a r t o f the anchor t e n a n t s ) i s a l s o d i s c u s s e d . G e n e r a l l y , t h i s c h a p t e r s e r v e s t o d i s p l a y a number of problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the t h e o r e -t i c a l methods and i n t u r n g i v e s some i n s i g h t i n t o a number o f p o s s i b l e r e a s o n s why t h e y have f a i l e d t o d i f f u s e i n t o the b u s i n e s s w o r l d . C h a p t e r 5 - summarizes and c o n c l u d e s the s t u d y . A num-be r o f p o s s i b l e d i r e c t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h are a l s o p r o p o s e d . 15 .- "FOOTNOTES .. 1. B r i a n J . L . B e r r y . Geography Of Market C e n t e r s  And R e t a i l D i s t r i b u t i o n . Englewood C l i f f s : P r e n t i c e -H a l l I n c . , 1967. p 62 . 2 . I b i d , p 6 3 . 3 . P e t e r S c o t t . Geography And R e t a i l i n g . London: H u t c h i n s o n U n i v e r s i t y L i b r a r y , 1970. p 85. 4. L o u i s P. B u c k l i n . "Trade a r e a b o u n d a r i e s : some i s s u e s i n t h e o r y and methodology." J o u r n a l Of M a r k e t i n g R e s e a r c h . V o l . 8, 1971. p 36. 5. I b i d , p 36. 6. I b i d , p 31 . 7. John B. P a r r and Kenneth G. D e n i k e . " T h e o r e t i c a l problems i n C e n t r a l P l a c e a n a l y s i s . " Economic Geography. V o l . ^6 O ) , 1970. "p 569. 8. R i c h a r d C. N e l s o n . The S e l e c t i o n Of R e t a i l  L o c a t i o n s . New York: F.W. Dodge C o r p o r a t i o n , 1958. 9. P e t e r L. Simons. "The shape o f suburban r e t a i l market a r e a s : i m p l i c a t i o n s from a l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w . " J o u r n a l Of R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 4-9 (k) , 197^. p 67 . 10. W i l l i a m Applebaum and S a u l B. Cohen. "The dyna-mics o f s t o r e t r a d i n g a r e a s and market e q u i l i b r i u m . " A n n a l s Of The A s s o c i a t i o n Of A m e r i c a n Geographers. V o l . 51 , 1961. p 80. 11 . Jac L G o l d s t u c k e r , Danny N. B e l l e n g e r , Thomas J . S t a n l e y and Ruth O t t e . New Developments I n R e t a i l T r a d i n g  A r e a A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n . G e o r g i a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y . R e s e a r c h Monograph, No. 78, 1978. p 6. 12 . Ross L. D a v i e s . M a r k e t i n g Geography - W i t h S p e c i a l  R e f e r e n c e To R e t a i l i n g . U n i v e r s i t y o f New C a s t l e Upon Tyne, 19781 p~96^ 13. G o l d s t u c k e r . New Developments I n R e t a i l T r a d i n g  A r e a A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n , p 7. l^J-. J . P e r r y L e w i s and A.L. T r a i l l . "The assessment o f s h o p p i n g p o t e n t i a l and demand f o r shops." Town P l a n n i n g  Review. V o l . 38 (^), p 323. 16 15. David L. Huff. " E c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of consumer behavior." Papers And Proceedings Of The Regional  Science A s s o c i a t i o n . V o l . 7, 1961. p 21 . 16. R.K. S c h i l l e r . "The measurement of the a t t r a c t -iveness of shopping centers to middle c l a s s l u x u r y consum-e r s . " Regional S t u d i e s . V o l . 6, 1972. p 292. 17» Goldstucker. New Developments In R e t a i l Trading  Area A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n , p 7. 18. I b i d , p 7. 19« Robert B. P o t t e r . "Spatialt.and s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a -t i o n s i n the q u a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of i n t r a - u r b a n r e t a i l -i n g centers." I n s t i t u t e of B r i t i s h Geographers, Transac- t i o n s , New S e r i e s . V o l . 5 (2) I 9 8 O . p 208. 17 CHAPTER 2.  TRADE AREA ANALYSIS MODELS.  (A) I n t r o d u c t i o n . W i t h i n the v a s t body o f academic l i t e r a t u r e p e r t a i n i n g t o r e t a i l l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s , the prominent t r e n d o v er the p a s t twenty y e a r s o r so has been towards m o d e l i n g and thus the quan-t i f i c a t i o n of those v a r i a b l e s c r i t i c a l to a n a l y z i n g consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . I n many ways t h i s t r e n d r e p r e s e n t s a r e a c t i o n a g a i n s t the h i g h l y s u b j e c t i v e a l t e r n a t e methods such as Applebaum's a n a l o g approach. I t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t these models w i l l s u p p l y the a n a l y s t w i t h a t o o l t h a t w i l l a l l o w him t o make r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t i o n s i n s i t u a t i o n s where d a t a from e x i s t i n g s t o r e s i s n o t a v a i l a b l e or does n o t seem a p p l i c a b l e . I t i s f e l t a l s o t h a t more r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t i o n s are p o s s i b l e w i t h an o b j e c t i v e approach t h a n w i t h a s u b j e c t i v e one ( p a r t i c u -l a r l y f o r s h o p p i n g goods s i n c e so many v a r i a b l e s p l a y a r o l e i n the consumers d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s ) as t h e r e i s n o t as much room f o r human e r r o r and t h e y do n o t depend as h e a v i l y on the a n a l y s t ' s a b i l i t y t o i n t e r p r e t s i t u a t i o n s or t o make judge-ments about t h e s e s i t u a t i o n s . I n e s s e n c e , the m o d e l i n g app-roa c h e s m i n i m i z e the y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e r e q u i r e d by the a n a l y s t . I n t h e o r y , o t h e r advantages a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the use o f models a r e : l ) The e v a l u a t i o n o f a g r e a t number o f p o s s i b i l i -t i e s a t a low c o s t ; 2) They d e l i n e a t e p r e c i s e l y t h e e f f e c t s o f weak e s t i m a t e s or poor judgements, and: 3) The models can keep a l a r g e number of f a c t o r s i n f o c u s w h i l e the c a l c u l a t i o n s are b e i n g made. The most prominent o f the numerous model t y p e s d e v e l o p e d 18 i s u n d o u b t e d l y the g r a v i t y model. As Simon s t a t e s , " T h i s model u n d e r l i e s the work o f R e i l l y , F e t t e r and the Hyson's, among o t h e r s , w h i l e H u f f i n c o r p o r a t e d p r o b a b i l i s t i c s n o t i o n s , the g r a v i t y model i s a l s o i m p l i c i t i n G o l l e g e ' s zones o f ad-vantage and d i s a d v a n t a g e , i n S t o u f f e r s ' c oncept o f i n t e r v e n -i n g o p p o r t u n i t y , i n N e l s o n ' s i d e a o f suburban s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s as i n t e r c e p t o r s , i n Rushton's work on i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e s and consumer space p r e f e r e n c e , and i n a l m o s t the u n i v e r s a l sub-d i v i s i o n o f r e t a i l market a r e a s i n t o p r i m a r y , s e c o n d a r y , and f r i n g e a r e a s . I n f a c t , i t i s f a i r to c l a i m t h a t d e s p i t e i t s p r o b l e m s , the g r a v i t y c o n c e p t i s the most p e r v a s i v e t h e o r y 2 c u r r e n t l y used m economic geography." G r a v i t y models are e s s e n t i a l l y based on the Laws of P l a n e -t a r y G r a v i t y . I n s i m p l e terms t h i s i m p l i e s t h a t as the mass (square f e e t o f s h o p p i n g a r e a i n t h i s c o n t e x t ) grows i n s i z e , i t c r e a t e s a g r e a t e r a t t r a c t i v e f o r c e . On the o t h e r hand, as the d i s t a n c e between the masses i n c r e a s e s , the a t t r a c t i v e p u l l t h a t t hey e x e r t on each o t h e r d e c r e a s e s . J A l t h o u g h t h e r e are a number of advantages i n u s i n g such models, t h e r e a r e a l s o a number o f weaknesses t h a t are i n h e r e n t i n the g e n e r a l makeup o f almost a l l forms of g r a v i t y model. The models are l i m i t e d i n the sense t h a t t h e y are d e s i g n e d to a c c o u n t f o r the b e h a v i o r o f l a r g e groups of p e o p l e , and r e s t on the a ssumption t h a t group b e h a v i o r i s p r e d i c t a b l e on the b a s i s o f m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o b a b i l i t y because the i d i o s y n c r a c i e s o f any one i n d i v i d u a l or s m a l l group t e n d to be c a n c e l l e d o u t . I n e s s e n c e , the model i s n o t d e s i g n e d t o r e f l e c t i n d i v i d u a l o r 19 i n d i v i d u a l group p e c u l i a r i t i e s , but i n s t e a d i s concerned w i t h f a r more g e n e r a l f a c t o r s . Thus the model i s o n l y app-l i c a b l e a t a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e s c a l e and has n o t been a b l e t o r e l i a b l y a ccount f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n b e h a v i o r among s u b s e t s o f the g e n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n . ^ B l o o m e n s t i e n e t a l , summarize many o f the f l a w s t h a t are g e n e r a l t o the g r a v i t y type model when the comment t h a t some o f the weaker p o i n t s o f the model are t h a t "The models are aggregate and do n o t d e s c r i b e o r e x p l a i n i n d i v i d u a l be-h a v i o r ; space p e r c e p t i o n i s l e f t out o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n ; the a t t -r a c t i v e n e s s measures do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c o r r e s p o n d to the shopper's p e r c e p t i o n and image o f the c e n t e r ; m u l t i p u r p o s e t r i p s are n e g l e c t e d ; the e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l s i d e i s n o t i n t e -g r a t e d ; and the models do n o t e x p l a i n the dynamics.of the r e -t a i l s e c t o r . " S c o t t expands on t h i s by n o t i n g t h a t t h e r e are problems w i t h : the d e f i n i t i o n o f the s t u d y a r e a and i t s c o n s t i t u e n t zones; the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a ; the need f o r a n a l y s i s by type o f t r a d e , s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e and t r a v e l mode; the c h o i c e o f measures f o r a t t r a c t i o n and f r i c t i o n ; the c a l i -b r a t i o n o f the model g i v e n o n l y c u r r e n t d a t a ; the i m p l i c i t a s s umption c o n c e r n i n g consumer and e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l b e h a v i o r ; the c o n v e r s i o n o f s a l e s i n t o f l o o r space; and the range o f t e c h n i c a l change and i n s t i t u t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making f o r which r e l i a b l e f o r c a s t s cannot be made. ' " I n s h o r t the model i s un d o u b t e d l y a v a l u a b l e t o o l f o r p r e l i m i n a r y m a c r o - a n a l y s i s but o i t remains e s s e n t i a l l y s t a t i c , d e s c r i p t i v e and s u p e r f i c i a l . " 20 The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n w i l l c r i t i c a l l y review some of the prominent g r a v i t y models th a t have been developed, beginning with a sample of d e t e r m i n i s t i c models, then working through the p r o b a b i l i s t i c models to the b e h a v i o r a l models. I t should be noted that despite the f a c t that only the g r a v i t y model w i l l be d e a l t w i t h , at the expense of other forms of models (ie r e g r e s s i o n , entropy-maximizing), t h i s i s not b e l i e v e d to be a shortcoming i n l i g h t of the purposes of t h i s work. The flaws i n these other types of models u l t i m a t e l y are s i m i l a r to those of the g r a v i t y model, and since the g r a v i t y model i s by f a r the emminent one, c o n c e t r a t i o n on t h i s form seem j u s t i -f i e d . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l deal p r i m a r i l y with the advantages and disadvantages a s s o c i a t e d with each of the i n d i v i d u a l models introduced. The purpose of the s e c t i o n i s to gain an understanding of the basic p r i n c i p l e of the grav-i t y model and to determine the d i r e c t i o n s that the research i s t a k i n g . A broader c r i t i q u e concerning the un d e r l y i n g r e a -sons why the g r a v i t y model i s of l i t t l e use i n p r a c t i c e w i l l be reserved u n t i l a l a t e r p o i n t . (B) A review of the r e t a i l r e l a t e d g r a v i t y models. Most models of r e t a i l l o c a t i o n are capable of both de-l i n e a t i n g the trade area boundaries and e s t i m a t i n g the poten-t i a l s a l e s volume of the f a c i l i t y i n question. Since i n most cases the design of the model changes very l i t t l e f o r each purpose, i t i s o f t e n d i f f i c u l t to d i s t i n q u i s h between the two i n t e n t i o n s . In an attempt to avoid some of t h i s c o nfusion, 21 the f o r t h c o m i n g models w i l l "be p r e s e n t e d i n the form t h a t w o u l d be used f o r d e l i n e a t i n g t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s . An e x p l a n a t i o n o f how these models c o u l d then be a p p l i e d f o r the purpose o f e s t i m a t i n g p o t e n t i a l s a l e s volumes w i l l be r e s e r v e d u n t i l a l a t e r p o i n t . ( i ) D e t e r m i n i s t i c models. One o f the e a r l i e s t models deve l o p e d f o r d e l i n e a t i n g t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s i s known as R e i l l y ' s Law Of R e t a i l G r a v i -t a t i o n . D e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t t h i s model i s q u i t e u n r e a l i s t i c i n n a t u r e , i t m e r i t s a t t e n t i o n s i n c e many o f the more r e c e n t models have been d e r i v e d from i t s u n d e r l y i n g p r i n c i p l e s . The o r i g i n a l model's p r i m a r y f o c u s was on d e t e r m i n i n g the r e l a t i v e p u l l i n g power o f two competing c i t i e s on an i n t e r v e n i n g a r e a , r a t h e r t h a n on d e l i n e a t i n g i n t r a - u r b a n t r a d e a r e a s . I n i t s o r i -g i n a l form the model i s e x p r e s s e d as f o l l o w s : B a = The p r o p o r t i o n o f t r a d e from the i n t e r m e d i a t e c i t y a t t r a c t e d by c i t y A; = The p r o p o r t i o n o f t r a d e from the i n t e r m e d i a t e c i t y a t t r a c t e d by c i t y B; P = The p o p u l a t i o n o f c i t y A; P^ = The populatio.no <3f c i t y B; D = The d i s t a n c e from the i n t e r m e d i a t e town t o c i t y B, = The d i s t a n c e from the i n t e r m e d i a t e town t o c i t y B. where: A; and 22 Q u a l i t a t i v e l y t h i s model a s s e r t s t h a t "two c i t i e s a t t -r a c t r e t a i l t r a d e from an i n t e r m e d i a t e c i t y or town i n the v i c i n i t y o f the b r e a k i n g p o i n t a p p r o x i m a t e l y i n d i r e c t p r o -p o r t i o n t o the p o p u l a t i o n of the two c i t i e s and i n i n v e r s e • p r o p o r t i o n t o the square of the d i s t a n c e s from the two c i t i e s t o the i n t e r m e d i a t e town." "^ ~0 I n 19^7 the C u r t i s P u b l i s h i n g Company made a s i g n i f i c a n t a d a p t a t i o n t o R e i l l y ' s model so t h a t i t produced an e q u i - p r o b a -b i l i t y l i n e ( b r e a k i n g p o i n t ) which r e p r e s e n t e d the p o i n t where the dominant t r a d i n g i n f l u e n c e o f one c i t y was r e p l a c e d by t h a t o f a n o t h e r . The model i s s y m b o l i c a l l y e x p r e s s e d a s : where: B^ = The b r e a k i n g p o i n t between c i t y A and c i t y B i n m i l e s from B. ^ab = ^ l a e d i s ^ a n c e s e p a r a t i n g c i t y A from c i t y B. P^ = The p o p u l a t i o n o f c i t y B. V = The p o p u l a t i o n o f c i t y A. 1 1 The model s t a t e s t h a t consumers w i l l n o r m a l l y t r a v e l t o the l a r g e s t p l a c e w i t h the most c o n v e n i e n t a c c e s s . I t assumes t h a t consumers w i l l i n v a r i a b l y p a t r o n i z e the c e n t e r c l o s e s t t o t h e i r p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e t h a t o f f e r s the goods t h e y d e s i r e . The model measures t r a v e l s o l e l y i n terms o f o b j e c t i v e d i s t a n c e and i g n o r e s a l l time and p e r c e p t i o n o f t r a v e l v a r i a b l e s . I t 23 assumes that a center twice as f a r away w i l l he e x a c t l y h a l f 12 as a t t r a c t i v e which i s c l e a r l y an inaccurate conception. As Wagner notes, on the whole "...the l a r g e r the d i f f e r e n c e i n c i t y s i z e , the greater the inaccuracy of R e i l l y ' s law (a name ofte n i n c o r r e c t l y given to the "breaking p o i n t model). The lawi'-s e f f e c t i v e n e s s i s also hampered by increases i n the 13 distance f i g u r e employed m the formula." The model also f a i l s to give c o n s i d e r a t i o n to automobile t r a f f i c p a t terns and the nature of the t r a f f i c mode from which p o t e n t i a l con-14 sumers are drawn. Huff notes f i v e major l i m i t a t i o n s of the adapted R e i l l y model (break p o i n t ) , which are as f o l l o w s : 1) The break p o i n t model i s incapable of p r o v i d i n g grad-uated estimates above or below the break even p o s i t i o n between two competing centers. Thus i t i s impossible to c a l c u l a t e ob-j e c t i v e l y the t o t a l demand f o r the product of a p a r t i c u l a r shopping center. 2) ,When used to de l i n e a t e the trade areas of s e v e r a l shopping c e n t e r s , the overlapping boundaries t h a t r e s u l t are i n c o n s i s t a n t with the basic o b j e c t i v e of the formula's use; to c a l c u l a t e the boundaries between competing shopping centers where the competetive p o s i t i o n of each i s equal. 3) In the case of m u l t i - t r a d i n g area d e l i n e a t i o n s , there may be areas that are not even w i t h i n the confines of any shopping center's trade area. 4) The parameter o r i g n i n a l l y estimated by R e i l l y (2) should not be i n t e r p r e t e d as a constant f o r a l l types of shopping t r i p s . 2k 5) The model was e m p i r i c a l l y d e r i v e d and p o s s e s s e s v e r y l i t t l e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n t e n t . That i s , i t does n ot r e -v e a l why ob s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s o c c u r as t h e y do. F i g u r e 2.1 HYPOTHETICAL TRADE AREA AS PRODUCED BY THE BREAKING POINT MODEL. Shopping c e n t e r Squ. f o o t a g e o f T r a v e l time B r e a k i n g p o i n t s e l l i n g s p a ce. from A from s h o p p i n g c e n t e r A. A 200,000 0 0 B 100,000 15 6 .2 C 150,000 20 9.3 D 50,000 i o 3 .3 E 300,000 25 13.8 25 More r e c e n t s t u d i e s have r e s u l t e d i n a number of sugg-e s t i o n s t h a t c o u l d p o s s i b l y improve the model. F o r example, R e y n o l d s u g g e s t e d t h a t t r a v e l time s h o u l d be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r t r a v e l time i s a b e t t e r measure of t h e f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e . T h i s s h o u l d be an improvement s i n c e one m i l e of t r a v e l may t a k e a g r e a t d e a l l o n g e r on a c o n g e s t e d r o a d t h a n i t might on a freeway. N e l s o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t i n the case o f a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , o n l y department s t o r e s , c l o t h i n g s t o r e s , f u r n i t u r e s t o r e s and a p p l i a n c e s t o r e s s h o u l d be used i n the f o r m u l a , as the o t h e r s t o r e s are n o t c o n s i d e r e d g e n e r a t o r s o f adequate im-17 p o r t a n c e . N o n e t h e l e s s , t h e s e s o r t s o f improvements do not s a t i s f y most of the o t h e r c r i t i c i s m s t h a t have been d i r e c t e d a t the model. ( i i ) P r o b a b i l i s t i c models. There were n o t r e a l l y any f u r t h e r developments of any consequence u n t i l the e a r l y 1960's and H u f f ' s a d a p t i o n o f R e i l l y * s Law t o i n c l u d e the n o t i o n o f consumer s p a t i a l be-h a v i o r . H u f f ' s r e t a i l a t t r a c t i o n model can be e x p r e s s e d as f o l l o w s : the d i s t a n c e v a r i a b l e . 16 The u n d e r l y i n g premise b e i n g t h a t / As At where: P. . = The p r o b a b i l i t y o f a consumer i n a r e a i s h o p p i n g a t r e t a i l l o c a t i o n j . I 26 S . = The square f e e t of r e t a i l s e l l i n g a r e a a t r e t a i l l o c a t i o n j . ^ g = The s e n s i t i v i t y of changes i n sho p p i n g p r o b a -b i l i t y t o changes i n s e l l i n g a r e a . T.. = The d r i v i n g time between a r e a i and r e t a i l l o c a t i o n j . ^ = The s e n s i t i v i t y o f changes i n s h o p p i n g p r o b a -18 b i l i t y t o changes i n d r i v i n g t i m e . A l t h o u g h i n many ways H u f f ' s model i s n o t g r e a t l y d i f f e r -e n t from R e i l l y ' s Law, i t s major achievement i s i n the d e s i g -n a t i o n o f the market a r e a as a s e r i e s of p r o b a b i l i t y i s o p l e t h s , and i n i t s a b i l i t y t o d i s t r i b u t e p o t e n t i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s among 19 more t h a n two c e n t e r s . y H u f f r e c o g n i z e d t h a t a t r a d e a r e a was s i m p l y n o t a f i x e d l i n e c i r c u m s c r i b i n g a sho p p i n g c e n t e r . The p r o b a b i l i s t i c c o n t o u r s t h a t the model produces r e f l e c t t h a t consumers are n o t a b l e t o d i s c r i m i n a t e among c h o i c e s p e r f e c t l y . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s t h a t when d i f f e r e n c e s among a l t e r n a t i v e s i s s m a l l , the consumer f i n d s i t d i f f i c u l t t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between them and t h e r e f o r e w i l l choose some-what randomly. A l s o , s i n c e consumers are u n c e r t a i n as to the p o t e n t i a l o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r f u l f i l l i n g t h e i r shopp-i n g d e s i r e s , t h e y t e n d t o r e l y on i n t u i t i v e b e l i e f s , and check th e s e by a l s o v i s i t i n g o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e s h o p p i n g cen-t e r s , " . . . i f a consumer i s c o n f r o n t e d w i t h the same c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n a number o f t i m e s , he w i l l t e n d t o choose among such a l t e r n a t i v e s i n some c o n s t a n t p r o p o r t i o n ; t h e r e f o r e a 20 r e l a t i v e u t i l i t y can be a s s i g n e d t o each ( c o n t o u r ) . " 27 F i g u r e 2.2 PROBABILITY CONTOURS AS PRODUCED BY THE HUFF MODEL (So u r c e : H u f f 1962) V i e w i n g r e t a i l t r a d i n g a r e a s as a s e r i e s of p r o b a b i l i t y c o n t o u r s i s q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from i t s t r e a t m e n t i n c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y , e a r l y g r a v i t y models ( i e R e i l l y ' s Law o f R e t a i l G r a v i t a t i o n ) , and most t r a d i t i o n a l economic t h e o r y , w h i c h im-p l i c i t l y o r e x p l i c i t l y assumes e x c l u s i v e ( d e t e r m i n i s t i c ) t r a d e a r e a s . I n r e f e r e n c e t o t h e p r o b a b i l i t y c o n t o u r s t h a t t h e model p r o d u c e s , B e r r y n o t e s t h a t "such a s u r f a c e r e n d e r s o p e r a -t i o n a l t h e c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r i s t s n o t i o n o f a s e t o f demand cones w h i l e b r o a d e n i n g the t h e o r y ' s s i m p l e n o t i o n s o f non-over-l a p p i n g market a r e a s t o more complex, c o n t i n u o u s , p r o b a b i l i s t i c b a s e s . . . t h i s s e t o f s u r f a c e s t o g e t h e r w i t h the c e n t e r on which 28 each o f the market p e n e t r a t i o n cones are f o c u s e d , summarizes the s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s t h a t are the h e a r t o f the geographers 21 co n c e r n s w i t h m a r k e t i n g systems." A l t h o u g h H u f f admits t h a t t h e r e are a g r e a t number of v a r i a b l e s t h a t a f f e c t consumer b e h a v i o r , he f e e l s t h a t e v i -dence s u g g e s t s t h a t two v a r i a b l e s e x e r t such an i n f l u e n c e on consumer c h o i c e t h a t a l l o t h e r v a r i a b l e s can be i g n o r e d w i t h -out too g r e a t a l o s s i n the models p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y . These two v a r i a b l e s a r e : l ) The number o f goods t h a t a s h o p p i n g cen-t e r o f f e r s ( g e n e r a l l y t h i s can be s i m p l i f i e d by u s i n g the square f e e t o f s e l l i n g a r e a as a s u r r o g a t e measure) and; 2) The t r a v e l 22 time from the consumer's r e s i d e n c e t o the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . I n e s s e n c e , H u f f assumes t h a t r e t a i l s h o p p i n g f a c i l i t i e s are p r e t t y much a l i k e e x c e p t f o r s i z e and d i s t a n c e , t h e r e f o r e , "The H u f f model can be e x p e c t e d t o y i e l d a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s o n l y when i t s u n d e r l y i n g a ssumption t h a t r e t a i l s t o r e s o r c e n t e r s a re r e a s o n a b l y s i m i l a r e x c e p t f o r s i z e and d i s t a n c e , a c c u r a t e l y p o r t r a y s the c o m p e t i t i v e s i t u a t i o n under i n v e s t i g a - ' t i o n . I n s i t u a t i o n s where consumers p e r c e i v e s u b s t a n t i a l c o m p e t i t i v e d i f f e r e n c e s between r e t a i l s t o r e s o r c e n t e r s , the use o f r e t a i l s t o r e o r c e n t e r s i z e w i l l n o t be a good measure o f a t t r a c t i v e n e s s and hence, w i l l most l i k e l y p r o v i d e 23 i n a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s o f r e t a i l t r a d e a r e a s and p a t r o n a g e . " ^ N e v e r t h e l e s s , d e s p i t e H u f f ' s c o n t e n t i o n s , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t the p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y o f the model can be q u e s t i o n e d s i n c e i t does n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c o u n t f o r a number o f i m p o r t -ant v a r i a b l e s such a s ; p r i c e , q u a l i t y o f m e r c h a n d i s e , a c c e s s i -29 b i l i t y ( a l t h o u g h some may assume t h a t t h i s i s i m p l i c i t l y a c c o u n t e d f o r w i t h i n the d r i v i n g time v a r i a b l e ) and a h o s t o f o t h e r s a l i e n t f a c t o r s . H u f f defended h i s models a g a i n s t such c r i t i c i s m s by s u g g e s t i n g t h a t " M a t h e m a t i c a l models are n o t i n f a l l a b l e . They are by n e c e s s i t y s i m p l i f i e d c o n s t r u c t s o f some a s p e c t s o f r e a l i t y . I t i s i m p o s s i b l e f o r such con-s t r u c t s t o i n c l u d e a l l p o s s i b l e f a c t o r s t h a t have a b e a r i n g on a p a r t i c u l a r problem. T h e r e f o r e , d e c i s i o n makers s h o u l d be aware t h a t t h e r e a re v a r i a b l e s o t h e r than those s p e c i f i e d i n the model t h a t a f f e c t s the s a l e s o f a r e t a i l f i r m . The r e p u t a t i o n o f a f i r m , the newness o f a s t o r e , the merchandise i t c a r r i e s , the s e r v i c e s i t o f f e r s , e t c . , are but a few ex-2k amples o f a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . " E m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t f o r H u f f ' s g r a v i t y model has been mixed. I t seems t o p r o v i d e a f a i r l y r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e f o r s h o p p i n g ar e a s or c e n t e r s but i s somewhat weaker when i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s are the main c o n c e r n . T h i s i s l i k e l y due to the f a c t t h a t consumers p e r c e i v e g r e a t e r d i f f e r e n c e s between d i f f e r e n t 2S s t o r e s t h a n between d i f f e r e n t s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s . ^ As K o t l e r comments, "S h o r t o f i n c l u d i n g a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , i t i s f e l t by many a n a l y s t s t h a t H u f f ' s e q u a t i o n i s o f l i m i t e d v a l u e i n e s t i m a t i n g s a l e s p o t e n t i a l f o r s i n g l e s t o r e s . I n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s i z e p e r se has n o t been found to have the g r e a t i n -f l u e n c e c l a i m e d on drawing power. S i z e appears t o be more of a f a c t o r i n e x p l a i n i n g d r a w i n g power d i f f e r e n c e s o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s and here i s where the H u f f model may be most e f f e c t i v e . " S c o t t , on the o t h e r hand, d i s a g r e e s to some e x t e n t w i t h K o t l e r . 30 He f e e l s t h a t "A mere i n c r e a s e i n o u t l e t s i z e unaccompanied by a change i n p r o d u c t mix i s u n l i k e l y t o m o d i f y a market a r e a , though i t may i n c r e a s e s u b s t a n t i a l l y a s t o r e s pene-27 t r a t i o n o f the market." ' I n o t h e r words, a l t h o u g h S c o t t a grees t h a t s t o r e s i z e has v e r y l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e p e r se on the a r e a l e x t e n t o f a market a r e a , the t h e o r i s t s d i v e r g e o v e r the q u e s t i o n o f s a l e s p e n e t r a t i o n . W h i l e K o t l e r c o n t i n u e s t o m a i n t a i n t h a t the e f f e c t o f s t o r e s i z e on market a r e a pene-t r a t i o n i s n e g l i g a b l e , S c o t t contends t h a t i t i s i n t h i s c a p a c i t y t h a t the s i z e o f the s t o r e has the g r e a t e s t i n f l u e n c e . A g r e a t d e a l more e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h i s r e q u i r e d b e f o r e t h i s d i s c r e p a n c y can be c l e a r e d up. ( i i i ) B e h a v i o r a l models. The c u r r e n t t r e n d s i n r e t a i l m o d e l i n g have p r e d o m i n a n t l y been a t t e m p t s to overcome some o f the l i m i t a t i o n s o f models such as H u f f ' s by i n t r o d u c i n g p s y c h o l o g i c a l v a r i a b l e s i n t o the model d e s i g n . P r o ponents o f the s e models f e e l t h a t con-sumers have d i f f e r e n t p e r c e p t i o n s o f r e t a i l c e n t e r s , and t h a t these images r e s u l t i n v a r i a t i o n s i n t r a d e a r e a s i z e and the share o f the market t h a t the c e n t e r w i l l u l t i m a t e l y r e c e i v e . However, i t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e as to how many models have s u c c e s s -f u l l y t e s t e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p between consumers p e r c e p t i o n and t h e i r o v e r t patronage b e h a v i o r . One o f the more e s t a b l i s h e d o f these models was developed by S t a n l e y and S e w e l l . A l t h o u g h supermarkets are t h e f o c u s o f i n t e r e s t i n the f o l l o w i n g example, the model c o u l d as e a s i l y be a p p l i e d t o o t h e r t y p e s o f s t o r e s o r t o s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s as a whole. 31 The model i s e x p r e s s e d a s : p _ a -XS m X t n X d / . n q X s T A t Xd where::. P. . = The p r o b a b i l i t y o f a consumer i n a r e a i shopp-i n g supermarket j . S . = The square f e e t of r e t a i l s e l l i n g a r e a o f supermarket j . , = The s e n s i t i v i t y o f changes i n s h o p p i n g p r o b a -A S b i l i t i e s t o changes i n s e l l i n g a r e a . T. . = The d r i v i n g time between a r e a i and supermarket j 1 J Xt The s e n s i t i v i t y of changes i n s h o p p i n g p r o b a -b i l i t y t o changes i n d r i v i n g t i m e . D.. = The measure o f image d i s t a n c e between an " i d e a l " supermarket c h a i n f o r consumers i n a r e a i and the c h a i n r e p r e s e n t e d i n the market a r e a by supermarket j - . Xd The s e n s i t i v i t y o f changes i n s h o p p i n g p r o b a -28 b i l i t y t o changes i n s t o r e image. A l t h o u g h i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h i s model, t h r o u g h the i n t r o -d u c t i o n of the image v a r i a b l e has a g r e a t e r p r e d i c t i v e capa-c i t y t h a n many of the e a r l i e r models, i t c e r t a i n l y i s not w i t h o u t i t s f a u l t s . F o r example, the model assumes t h a t consumer b e h a v i o r , i n the a g g r e g a t e , can be p r e d i c t e d on the b a s i s o f m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o b a b i l i t y even though the b e h a v i o r o f 29 the i n d i v i d u a l consumer i s not n o r m a l l y p r e d i c t a b l e . ' One i s a l s o l e d t o q u e s t i o n the v a l i d i t y o f q u a n t i f y i n g p s y c h o l o -g i c a l v a r i a b l e s i n the f i r s t p l a c e . A b r o a d e r c r i t i q u e of 32 •• t h i s problem s h a l l be r e s e r v e d u n t i l a l a t e r p o i n t . ' F u r t h e r -more, s i n c e S t a n l e y and S e w e l l have s i m p l y added an image v a r i a b l e t o the H u f f model, t h e y f a i l t o overcome a number of the p r e v i o u s l y mentioned f l a w s . I n a s i m i l a r v e i n , N e v i n and Houston f e l t t h a t a l t h o u g h most s t u d i e s i m p l y t h a t mass i s a u s e f u l p r o x y f o r a t t r a c t i o n , i t has n o t as y e t been a d e q u a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d whether i t , c o u p l e d w i t h t h e d i s t a n c e measure, i s s u f f i c i e n t f o r t h e p r e d -i c t i o n o f consumer s h o p p i n g p a t t e r n s . They, l i k e S t a n l e y and S e w e l l , attempt t o add an image measure t o the H u f f model. The f o l l o w i n g model adds two new components t o the o r i g i n a l H u f f model; image o f i n t r a - u r b a n s h o p p i n g a r e a s , and a s p e c i f i c s t o r e a t t r a c t i o n v a r i a b l e . 'S . T. .2 l j l ; i j 2 , i j k , i j where: P. . = The p r o b a b i l i t y o f consumer i shopping a p a r t i -c u l a r s h o p p i n g a r e a j . S j = S i z e o f r e t a i l s h o p p i n g a r e a a t l o c a t i o n j . T.. = Time i n v o l v e d i n g e t t i n g from consumer i ' s X J to to t r a v e l base t o s h o p p i n g a r e a j . n = The number o f c o m p e t i t i v e r e t a i l s h o p p i n g a r e a s . I . ., = The image consumer i has o f s h o p p i n g a r e a j on image d i m e n s i o n k. SPS.. = The a t t r a c t i o n o f consumer i t o a s p e c i a l s t o r e i n sh o p p i n g a r e a j . ^ The SPS.. v a r i a b l e r e c o g n i z e s the d u a l c h o i c e o f s h o p p i n g 33 a r e a as w e l l as s p e c i f i c s t o r e f a c e d by the consumer on any g i v e n s h o p p i n g t r i p . Some consumers may choose a s h o p p i n g a r e a t h a t t h e y do n o t p a r t i c u l a r i l y c a r e f o r j u s t because i t may c o n t a i n one s p e c i f i c s t o r e which t h e y may l i k e . The v a r i a b l e i s measured by s i m p l y a s k i n g the r e s p o n d e n t s whether o r n o t t h e r e i s a s p e c i f i c s t o r e t h a t a t t r a c t s them t o each s h o p p i n g a r e a , and i s i n t r o d u c e d i n t o the model as a dummy v a r i a b l e . To d e v e l o p the image measure ( I . ) t h e y chose s i x t e e n s t o r e a t t r i b u t e s (based on s t u d i e s by Bearden and L i n d q u i s t ) as b e i n g the s a l i e n t f a c t o r s t h a t comprise the consumer's o v e r -a l l image o f a p a r t i c u l a r f a c i l i t y . The a t t r i b u t e s were: q u a l -i t y o f s t o r e s , v a r i e t y o f s t o r e s , merchandise q u a l i t y , p r o d u c t s e l e c t i o n , g e n e r a l p r i c e l e v e l , s p e c i a l s a l e s / p r o m o t i o n s , l a y -out o f a r e a , p a r k i n g f a c i l i t i e s , a v a i l a b i l i t y o f l u n c h / r e f r e s h -ments, c o m f o r t a r e a s , s p e c i a l e v e n t s / e x h i b i t s , atmosphere, s t o r e p e r s o n n e l , easy to take c h i l d r e n , g r e a t p l a c e t o spend a few h o u r s , a c o n s e r v a t i v e c e n t e r . These 16 items were i n c o r p o r a t e d on a q u e s t i o n n a i r e and each i t e m was measured on a- 5 - p o i n t m o d i f i e d semantic d i f f e r e n t i a l r a t i n g s c a l e . They chose the semantic d i f f e r e n t i a l f o r m a t over o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e s ( i e m u l t i d i m i n s i o n a l s c a l i n g ) because, i t was easy t o a d m i n i s t e r , assumed minimum v e r b a l s k i l l s on the p a r t o f the r e s p o n d e n t s , and i s r e l a t i v e l y r e l i a b l e . The r e s p o n s e s were th e n f a c t o r a n a l y s e d u s i n g p r i n c i p l e component a n a l y s i s and v a r i m a x r o t a -t i o n i n o r d e r t o : l ) i d e n t i f y the u n d e r l y i n g dimensions of the image; 2) check f o r conguency a c r o s s a r e a s ; and 3) p u r i f y the 3^ measure of the r e s u l t i n g image dimensions by e l i m i n a t i n g a t t r i b u t e i tems w i t h low c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h the independent 32 f a c t o r s . J T e s t i n g o f the model showed t h a t i t s p r e d i c t i v e o r e x p l a n i t o r y c a p a c i t y was n o t t h a t much b e t t e r t h a n the t r a d i -t i o n a l H u f f model. The u t i l i t y o f i t s a p p l i c a t i o n o v er the H u f f model t h e r e f o r e , i s q u e s t i o n a b l e c o n s i d e r i n g the a d d i -t i o n a l d a t a c o l l e c t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s . Of c o u r s e , any a d d i -t i o n a l time c o s t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s imposed on the u s e r o f the mod e l i s v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t and must be j u s t i f i e d i n terms o f im-p r o v e d p r e d i c t a b i l i t y . As N e v i n and H o u s t i n n o t e , "The r e s u l t o f the s t u d y g e n e r a l l y do n o t s u p p o r t the h y p o t h e s i s t h a t add-i n g a r e t a i l image component t o the H u f f model w i l l improve p r e d i c t i o n s o f consumer c h o i c e s o f i n t r a - u r b a n s h o p p i n g a r e a s . (C) P r e d i c t i n g p o t e n t i a l s a l e s volume. A l t h o u g h the form o f the models p r e s e n t e d t o t h i s p o i n t have had the d e l i n e a t i o n o f t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s as t h e i r o u t p u t ( i n e i t h e r a d e t e r m i n i s t i c o r p r o b a b i l i s t i c form depend i n g upon the model i n q u e s t i o n ) p r e d i c t i o n s o f e x p e c t e d s a l e s volumes are a l s o p o s s i b l e t h rough t h e s e models. The p r o c e d u r e f o r e s t i m a t i n g p o t e n t i a l s a l e s volumes w i t h those models t h a t produce p r o b a b i l i s t i c t r a d e a r e a s ( i e H u f f ' s , N e v i n and H o u s t i n ' s , S t a n l e y and S e w e l l ' s and a h o s t o f o t h e r s n o t d i r e c t l y d i s c u s s e d h e r e ) i s v i r t u a l l y the same. Once the a n a l y s t has used the model t o c a l c u l a t e the p r o b a b i l i t y o f consumers i n each a r e a s h o p p i n g a t a p a r t i c u l a r 35 c e n t e r , he maps out the t r a d e a r e a by c o n n e c t i n g a l l s t a t i s -t i c a l u n i t s h a v i n g l i k e p r o b a b i l i t i e s . He must th e n d e t e r -mine the number of consumers i n each zone t h a t are e x p e c t e d to shop a t the c e n t e r i n q u e s t i o n . T h i s can be d e t e r m i n e d by s i m p l y m u l t i p l y i n g the c a l c u l a t e d p r o b a b i l i t y f o r the zone by the t o t a l number o f consumers r e s i d i n g i n the a r e a . He must th e n determine the average p e r c a p i t a and t o t a l i n -come f o r the a r e a . Once t h i s has been c a l c u l a t e d the n e x t s t e p i n v o l v e s d e t e r m i n i n g how much money i s a v a i l a b l e f o r the v a r i o u s p r o d u c t c l a s s e s t h a t the s u b j e c t c e n t e r i s ex-p e c t e d t o o f f e r . The census a l s o has q u i t e a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a -t i o n r e g a r d i n g the p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l income t h a t the average f a m i l y spends on v a r i o u s t y p e s o f goods ( a v a i l a b l e f o r d i f f e r -ent income g r o u p s ) . I f the a n a l y s t t h e n m u l t i p l i e s t h i s bud-g e t f i g u r e by the e x p e c t e d number o f consumers p e r u n i t a r e a and sums these e s t i m a t e s , he a r r i v e s a t the t o t a l s a l e s p o t e n -t i a l p e r p r o d u c t c l a s s . These c a l c u l a t i o n s can be done by the t r a d e a r e a d e l i n e a -t i o n model by s i m p l y m u l t i p l y i n g the o r i g i n a l f o r m u l a t i o n by C-^(number o f consumers i n a r e a i ) and i n t u r n by (budget f o r consumers i n a r e a i f o r p r o d u c t k ) . • The method used f o r d e t e r m i n i n g the s a l e s p o t e n t i a l f o r d e t e r m i n i s t i c t r a d e a r e a models such as R e i l l y ' s law o f r e t a i l g r a v i t a t i o n i s much the same ex c e p t f o r everyone w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a o f the f a c i l i t y c oncerned i s e x p e c t e d t o shop a t the c e n t e r (or s t o r e ) f o r a l l o f the d e s i r e d goods t h a t i t o f f e r s . Thus everyone i s i n c l u d e d i n the c a l c u l a t i o n . 36 (D) The a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the v a r i a b l e s . As s h o u l d be c l e a r , t h e r e has been a s t r o n g t r e n d i n r e c e n t y e a r s to attempt t o improve the b a s i c g r a v i t y model ( i e H u f f ) through the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f b e h a v i o r a l v a r i a b l e s . The premise i s t h a t the t r a d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s - mass and d i s t a n c e - are n o t a l o n e , s u f f i c i e n t d e t e r m i n a n t s f o r ex-p l a i n i n g consumer patronage p a t t e r n s i n u r b an a r e a s , espec-i a l l y when the d i s t a n c e between a l t e r n a t i v e s i s n o t t h a t g r e a t . The e m p i r i c a l r e s u l t s of the t e s t i n g o f a number of t hese "improved" models has been mixed. B u c k l i n , f o r ex-ample, comments t h a t h i s s s t u d i e s s u g g e s t t h a t the r o l e o f mass dominates t h a t o f image and s u p p o r t s the v a l i d i t y o f employing the t r a d i t i o n a l g r a v i t y model, a l t h o u g h he a l s o n o t e s t h a t the image f a c t o r s were n o t w i t h o u t s i g n i f i c a n c e and t h a t i n c l u d i n g image v a r i a b l e s i n g r a v i t y models c o u l d u l t i m a t e l y improve t h e i r p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y . Mass p r o v i d e d u t i l i t y by r e d u c i n g the time and e f f o r t r e q u i r e d f o r i n d i v i d -u a l t r a n s a c t i o n s and mad m u l t i p u r p o s e t r i p s more e c o n o m i c a l 35 and f a c i l i t a t e d i n t e r - s t o r e c omparisons. ^ He a l s o commented though, t h a t n o t everyone would v a l u e mass i n the same way, and t h a t i t s u t i l i t y would v a r y depending upon the n a t u r e of the s h o p p i n g t r i p . 3° j n e s s e n c e , he c o n c l u d e d t h a t o v e r a l l , " I t i s seen t h a t the consumer's s o c i a l p o s i t i o n , image, and the s h o p p i n g problem a f f e c t s the p e r c i e v e d reward from c a r e -f u l p r o d u c t s e l e c t i o n and i n t e r - s t o r e comparison as a b a s i s f o r s e a r c h . Mass r e t a i n s i t s o v e r a l l s i g n i f i c a n c e as a f a c t o r 37 f o r d e t e r m i n i n g the a t t r a c t i o n o f a c e n t e r , hut i t appears t h a t a d j u s t m e n t s o f g r a v i t y models t o f i t d i f f e r e n t i a l con-37 sumer p e r c e p t i o n s o f mass would improve p r e d i c t i b i l i t y . " Braumal and Ide's c o n c l u s i o n s are n o t f a r removed from those o f B u c k l i n . T h e i r argument i s b a s i c a l l y t h a t "The l a r g e r a c e n t e r , the g r e a t e r w i l l be the chance o f a p e r s o n s a t i s f y i n g h i s needs, but the chances of a p e r s o n t r a v e l l i n g 3 8 t o a c e n t e r w i l l d i m i n i s h w i t h d i s t a n c e . " ^ The u n d e r l y i n g premise of the argument i s t h a t consumers shop i n such ways as to maximize u t i l i t y , which t h e y f e e l i s governed d i r e c t l y by the i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p o f s i z e and d i s t a n c e . S.M. T a y l o r l i k e w i s e o b t a i n e d s i m i l a r r e s u l t s i n h i s s t u d y o f consumer s p a t i a l b e h a v i o r . He c o n c l u d e s h i s s t u d y by s u g g e s t i n g t h a t " I n g e n e r a l , the r e s u l t s p r o v i d e s t r o n g c o n f i r m a t i o n o f the importance p l a c e d upon l o c a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s i n e x i s t i n g models o f shopping b e h a v i o r . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e y c o n f i r m e d the v a l i d i t y r e g a r d i n g s i z e o f c e n t e r as a s u r r o g a t e measure of a t t r a c t i v e n e s s , w h i l e d e m o n s t r a t i n g the w i l l i n g n e s s o f consumers t o t r a v e l f a r t h e r t o p a t r o n i z e l a r g e r 39 c e n t e r s . " v y G e n t r y and Burns, i n t h e i r s t u d y o f consumer patronage m o t i v e s , s e t out t o determine what f a c t o r s the consumers weighed most h e a v i l y i n d e t e r m i n i n g s h o p p i n g c e n t e r c h o i c e . The r e s u l t s o f the s u r v e y showed t h a t consumers found d i s t a n c e t o be a r e l a t i v e l y u n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n t h e i r d e c i s i o n mak-i n g p r o c e s s . However, when these same consumers a c t u a l s h o p p i n g 38 p a t t e r n s were observed and t e s t e d , i t was found " . . . t h a t p e r c e i v e d p r o x i m i t y was the b e s t s i n g l e d i s c r i m i n a n t f o r a l l t h r e e o f the s h o p p i n g a r e a s , d e s p i t e i t s r e l a t i v e un-importance m the minds of the r e s p o n d e n t s . " A s i d e from r e i n f o r c i n g the importance o f d i s t a n c e i n s h o p p i n g c e n t e r c h o i c e , t h i s s t u d y a l s o l e a d s one t o q u e s t i o n the v a l i d i t y o f a s k i n g consumers to t e l l an i n t e r v i e w e r how i m p o r t a n t s e l e c t i v e e v a l u a t i v e c r i t e r i a are t o t h e i r p atronage d e c i s i o n s . S t a n l e y and S e w e l l c l a i m a l i t t l e more s u c c e s s i n t h e i r a ttempt to add the image v a r i a b l e t o the H u f f model, by con-c l u d i n g t h a t "The a d d i t i o n o f the image measure s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e s the model's a b i l i t y t o e x p l a i n v a r i a t i o n s i n r e t a i l f o o d s t o r e p a t r o n a g e . " However, t h e y added t h a t the power of d i s t a n c e remained the major f a c t o r i n p r e d i c t i n g consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . The importance o f d i s t a n c e was c l e a r l y ev-i d e n t s i n c e t h e y found t h a t the supermarket w i t h the l o w e s t image had the h i g h e s t patronage l e v e l . I n t h i s case d r i v i n g ho time appears t o outway the image f a c t o r . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d though, t h a t S t a n l e y and S e w e l l ' s s t u d y has been c r i t i c i z e d i n t h a t i t d i d n o t a d e q u a t e l y sample the domain o f image r e -l a t e d a t t r i b u t e s . They a l s o chose to t e s t the impact of image where the importance of u t i l i t y t o the consumer i s a t i t s minimum ( i e convenience f o o d s h o p p i n g ) . ^ P o s s i b l y the app-l i c a t i o n o f the model on a w i d e r range o f v a r i a b l e s and t r i p p u r p o s e s , might have produced more f r u i t f u l r e s u l t s . Never-t h e l e s s , N e v i n and H o u s t i n c o r r e c t e d some of th e s e f l a w s , but 39 s t i l l c o n c l u d e d t h a t " o v e r a l l , t h i s s t u d y seems t o l e n d e m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t f o r u s i n g the H u f f type g r a v i t y model t o 44 p r e d i c t i n t r a u r b a n t r a d e a r e a s and p o t e n t i a l s . " The r e s u l t s o f t h e s e s t u d i e s n e c e s s a r i l y l e a d s one t o q u e s t i o n the v a l u e o f image as a d e t e r m i n a n t of s t o r e c h o i c e . D e s p i t e t h i s f a c t a s i g n i f i c a n t number o f t h e o r i s t s c o n t i n u e to advocate s t r o n g l y t h a t more;.attention must be p a i d to the image measure and i t s r o l e i n s h o p p i n g c e n t e r c h o i c e , a l t h o u g h few have attempted t o s u b s t a n t i a t e t h e i r c l a i m s t h r ough m o d e l i n g o r e m p i r i c a l t e s t i n g . A g r e a t d e a l o f the r e s u l t a n t s t u d i e s have n o t d i r e c t l y been a t t e m p t s to d e r i v e an image measure s o l e l y f o r the purpose o f i n c o r p o r a t i n g i t i n a model, but r a t h e r have been a t t e m p t s t o s i m p l y under-s t a n d the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s e s t h a t antecede a consumers patronage d e c i s i o n . These s t u d i e s add a g r e a t d e a l o f i n s i g h t i n t o the p o t e n t i a l * " f o r u s i n g such a measure i n model form. C l e a r l y , t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e the concept o f image as a d e t e r m i n a n t o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r o r s t o r e c h o i c e , one must be-g i n by i s o l a t i n g , i n an unambiguous f a s h i o n , the dimensions a c t u a l l y used by consumers i n e v a l u a t i n g r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s . A l t h o u g h t h i s p r o b l e m has been t h e f o c u s o f a g r e a t d e a l o f a t t e n t i o n , t o date i t has y e t to be s o l v e d , as i s w i t n e s s e d by the d i s c r e p a n c i e s i n the range o f s t o r e a t t r i b u t e s used i n the v a r i o u s s t u d i e s . Roger Downs f o r example, i n h i s c l a s s i c a l s t u d y of the Broadmead Shopping C e n t e r i n B r i s t o l , employed the " c o g n i t i v e 40 b e h a v i o r a l approach" i n a r a t h e r u n s u c c e s s f u l attempt t o u n d e r s t a n d the r e a s o n s u n d e r l y i n g the consumer's s h o p p i n g c e n t e r c h o i c e . He b e l i e v e s t h a t a consumer w i l l e v a l u a t e a s i t u a t i o n by the c o g n i t i v e s t r u c t u r e o f an image, w h i c h i n t u r n i s the p r o c e s s of c o l l e c t i n g , c o d i n g and e v a l u a t i n g a l l o f the i n f o r m a t i o n he has o f the s p a t i a l environment. I n an attempt t o prove h i s t h e o r y he d e v i s e d a t e s t c o n t a i n - . i n g n i n e a t t r i b u t e s a l o n g which a consumer i s e x p e c t e d t o ev-a l u a t e a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . The n i n e f a c t o r s used were: p r i c e , s t r u c t u r e and d e s i g n , ease of i n t e r n a l movement and p a r k i n g , v i s u a l appearance, r e p u t a t i o n , range o f goods, s e r v i c e , shopp-y's i n g hours and atmosphere. However C a d w a l l e d e r , w i t h s i m i l a r i n t e n t i o n s , o n l y used t h e f f o l l o w i n g f o u r a t t r i b u t e s t o measure image: speed of check-46 out s e r v i c e , range o f goods s o l d , q u a l i t y , and p r i c e . T h i s i n c o n s i s t a n c y i n the a t t r i b u t e s the v a r i o u s t h e o r i s t s h o l d t o be s a l i e n t becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y e v i d e n t as one scans the l i t e r a -t u r e (see S c h i f f m a n e t a l 1978, L e s s i g 1973. E n g e l e t a l 1978, W a l t e r s 1978, and L l o y d and J e n n i n g s 1978 f o r a l t e r n a t e l i s t s o f a t t r i b u t e s ) . T h i s i s a c l e a r i n d i c a t i o n t h a t the components used by the consumers i n f o r m i n g an image of a s t o r e or c e n t e r has n o t as y e t been r e a l i z e d by the r e s e a r c h e r s . A n o t h e r problem w i t h most o f the s t u d i e s d e a l i n g w i t h the image o f a s t o r e or s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s t h a t the components denoted as b e i n g s a l i e n t i n c o m p r i s i n g an image, f a i l t o ex-p l a i n a v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f the v a r i a t i o n i n s hopping 4-1 p a t t e r n s . I t seems t h a t most s t o r e image s t u d i e s g i v e i n -s u f f i c i e n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o c o n t e n t v a l i d i t y . To he more ex-p l i c i t , most have assumed t h a t those v a r i a b l e s s a l i e n t t o s t o r e c h o i c e c o i n c i d e w i t h the o b j e c t i v e a t t r i b u t e s o f the r e t a i l environment such as p r i c e l e v e l , q u a l i t y o f goods, p e r s o n n e l , i n t e r i o r d e s i g n , and so on. W h i l e i t i s o b v i o u s t h a t such a t t r i b u t e s are o f fundemental i m p o r t a n c e , e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t more s p e c i f i c a s p e c t s o f these g e n e r a l i z e d 47 n o t i o n s c o n s i t u t e the c r i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s . ' T h i s p o i n t i s r e i n f o r c e d by the r e l a t i v e l y poor r e s u l t s of most of the s t u d i e s . F o r example, S c h i f f m a n a t t e m p t e d t o t e s t the r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h o f the image c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t he used i n h i s s t u d y (conven-i e n c e o f l o c a t i o n , b e s t p r i c e and/or d e a l s , g u a r a n t e e / w a r r a n t y p o l i c i e s , s a l e s p e r s o n ' s e x p e r t i s e , and v a r i e t y o f merchandise to choose from) through the employment of m u l t i p l e l i n e a r r e -g r e s s i o n . The c o e f f i c i e n t o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n r e v e a l e d t h a t o n l y 19.2$ o f the v a r i a b i l i t y i n s t o r e c h o i c e was e x p l a i n e d t h r o u g h the f i v e image c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . He n o t e s t h a t i t i s q u i t e common f o r the c o e f f i c i e n t o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n to be t h i s 4-8 low. The poor r e s u l t s are l i k e l y due to the f a c t t h a t s t o r e c h o i c e b e h a v i o r i s such a complex phenomenon t h a t i t would be c o m p l e t e l y u n r e a l i s t i c to assume t h a t these f i v e f a c -t o r s c o u l d a c c o u n t f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f the v a r i a b i l i y i n s h o p p i n g p a t t e r n s . L e s s i g ' s s t u d y i s a n o t h e r example of the poor p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f the image v a r i a b l e s . H i s s t u d y was an attempt to 42 p r e d i c t s t o r e l o y a l consumers t h r o u g h the image t h e y h e l d o f the v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s . The r e s u l t s were t h a t the model s u c c e s s f u l l y p r e d i c t e d s t o r e l o y a l t y f o r 17 out o f 29 h o u s e h o l d s . From t h i s he c o n c l u d e d t h a t the images consumers 49 had o f the s t o r e s were u s e f u l i n p r e d i c t i n g s t o r e l o y a l t y . ' A l t h o u g h he seems t o f e e l t h a t the model was s u c c e s s f u l , i t appears -that h i s c o n c l u s i o n s i n d e e d must be q u e s t i o n e d s i n c e h i s model was o n l y s u c c e s s f u l i n 59 p e r c e n t o f i t s p r e d i c t i o n s . T h i s i s n o t much g r e a t e r t h a n we would e x p e c t through chance, g i v e n the e q u a l p r o b a b i l i t y o f making a s u c c -e s s f u l o r u n s u c c e s s f u l p r e d i c t i o n . I n r e f e r e n c e t o the components used i n most s t u d i e s , Samson and H a r r i s c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e y " . . . l a c k p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e i n the type of s i t u a t i o n we f a c e , where groups o f con-sumers d i f f e r m arkedly i n t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s , and where the l o w e s t common denominator among v a r i a b l e s tends t o be v e r y l a r g e i n d e e d . " ^ I n o t h e r words, t h e r e has n o t been enough a t t e m p t s made to f i n d the u n d e r l y i n g a t t r i b u t e s t h a t comprise the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s o f the consumer. As a m a t t e r o f f a c t , a good d e a l of the s t u d i e s d e r i v e d t h e i r a t t r i b u t e s from the e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e . I n many ways t h i s i s s u r p r i s i n g , g i v e n t h a t many of the e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s have a l r e a d y d i s p l a y -ed t h e i r inadequacy. I t i s f e l t t h a t b e f o r e the p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f these s t u d i e s can be improved, a b e t t e r t h e o r e -t i c a l g r o u n d i n g i s needed. C l e a r l y , u n t i l such an improve-ment i s made, u s i n g such measures as image v a r i a b l e s i n the 43 g r a v i t y or o t h e r t y p e s o f models w i l l c o n t i n u e t o produce i n c o n c l u s i v e r e s u l t s . A n o t h e r problem w i t h d e r i v i n g an image measure f o r g r a v i t y type models i s t h a t the a n a l y s t must d e a l a l m o s t ex-c l u s i v e l y w i t h the i n d i v i d u a l and t h u s the models seem t o l a c k any p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y beyond the i n d i v i d u a l h i m s e l f , and as has been p o i n t e d o u t , even t h i s can be q u e s t i o n e d . T h i s makes the p o t e n t i a l f o r aggregate models of consumer s p a t i a l b e h a v i o r seem v e r y s m a l l i n d e e d . S t i l l a f u r t h e r problem seems t o be the q u e s t i o n as t o the v a l i d i t y o f a p p l y i n g t h e s e b e h a v i o r a l models a t the l e v e l o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , or even the s t o r e f o r t h a t m a t t e r . One of the major c r i t i c i s m s t h a t has a r i s e n stems from the f a c t t h a t i t does n o t appear t h a t consumers have an "image" o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r as a whole, but r a t h e r o n l y the s t o r e s i n which t h e y shop. T h i s i s found t o be e s p e c i a l l y t r u e o f neighbourhood c e n t e r s , where the consumer g e n e r a l l y o n l y shops f o r one convenience type purchase a t a t i m e . Thus he may have a d i f f e r e n t image each t r i p depending upon the purpose o f the p a r t i c u l a r s h o p p i n g t r i p . I t i s s u s p e c t e d t h a t the image dimensions w i l l v a r y depending upon the type off s t o r e under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , thus s u g g e s t i n g the n e c e s s i t y t o d e f i n e the s a l i e n t image d e t e r m i n a n t s i n d e p e n d e n t l y f o r d i f f e r e n t purchase s i t u a t i o n s . ^ S t u d i e s by E n g e l , K o l l a t and B l a c k -w e l l c a r r y t h i s argument one s t e p f u r t h e r by n o t i n g t h a t due t o the f a c t t h a t the d e t e r m i n a n t s of s t o r e c h o i c e v a r y by type o f p r o d u c t , s t o r e , and customer, i t i s u s u a l l y imposs-53 i b l e t o t a l k about g e n e r a l d e t e r m i n a n t s o f s t o r e c h o i c e . R i c h a r d Cordoza's s t u d y of department s t o r e s f u r t h e r h i g h -l i g h t s t hese v i e w p o i n t s . H i s d a t a i n d i c a t e d t h a t the image o f a s t o r e v a r i e d among the d i f f e r e n t p r o d u c t c l a s s e s , thus the consumer d i d n o t have an image o f the department s t o r e 54 as a whole. J A l t h o u g h by no means has the v a l u e o f i n c o r p o r a t i n g an image measure i n the g r a v i t y model been s a t i s f a c t o r i l y r e -s o l v e d , a t t h i s p o i n t i n time i t appears to be e q u a l l y s u f f i -c i e n t t o i n c l u d e o n l y the t r a d i t i o n a l s i z e and d i s t a n c e f a c -t o r s a t the expense o f the b e h a v i o r a l v a r i a b l e s . I n most cases the a d d i t i o n o f an image v a r i a b l e d i d n o t improve the p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y o f the models much beyond s i m p l e l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s c o n t a i n i n g o n l y d i s t a n c e and square f e e t o f sh o p p i n g a r e a measurement. I n s h o r t , the improvement i s v e r y modest r e l a t i v e t o the a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s o f c o l l e c t i n g the 55 demographic and so c i o e c o n o m i c i n f o r m a t i o n . P o s s i b l y one of the r e a s o n s t h a t the image v a r i a b l e s have n o t improved the p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y o f the models as much as one might e x p e c t i s t h a t s i z e , i n some a s p e c t s , i s a s u r r o g a t e measure o f many o f the components t h a t comprise a consumer's image of a p a r t i c u l a r c e n t e r . " I n h i s c l a s s i c s t u d y , H o l d r e n found t h a t most o f the v a r i a b l e s t h a t one might c o n s i d e r im-p o r t a n t i n exa m i n i n g the merchandise mix i n supermarkets ( i n t h i s example a l t h o u g h i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t the c o n c l u s i o n s a re 45 a p p l i c a b l e on a more g e n e r a l s c a l e ) were r e l a t e d t o the s i z e o f the s t o r e . P r i c e s v a r i e d i n v e r s e l y w i t h the s i z e o f the s t o r e w h i l e v a r i o u s t y p e s o f co n v e n i e n c e s such as a i r c o n d i -t i o n i n g , p a r k i n g , money o r d e r , completeness o f p r o d u c t l i n e , and so on, a l l v a r i e d d i r e c t l y w i t h the s i z e o f a s t o r e . " ^ F u r t h e r m o r e , g r a v i t y models are concerned w i t h the i n t e r a c t i o n between households and r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s and have o n l y l i m i t e d v a l u e as b e h a v i o r a l models. They are e s s -e n t i a l l y d e s i g n e d t o account f o r the b e h a v i o r of l a r g e groups of p e o p l e , and r e s t on the assu m p t i o n t h a t group b e h a v i o r i s p r e d i c t a b l e on the b a s i s o f m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o b a b i l i t y because the i d i o s y n c r a c i e s o f any one i n d i v i d u a l o r s m a l l group t e n d t o be c a n c e l l e d o u t . ^  The i n t e r a c t i o n t h e y s i m u l a t e i s a crude average s t a t e o f m a i n l y domestic s h o p p i n g measured s o l e l y i n terms o f the p r o p o r t i o n a l use made o f a l a r g e num-ber o f c e n t e r s by a l a r g e number of h o u s e h o l d s . Hence, the n e t e f f e c t o f u s i n g d e t a i l e d b e h a v i o r a l d a t a i n p u t s w i l l be to generate a mass o f i n f o r m a t i o n which w i l l t e n d t o b l u r r a t h e r t h a n c l a r i f y the o v e r a l l p a t t e r n o f movement. I n ess e n c e , the d a t a i s too good f o r the type o f model f o r which i t i s i n t e n d e d . A l t h o u g h i t i s c l e a r t h a t consumer s p a t i a l b e h a v i o r i s q u i t e a p o o r l y grounded c o n c e p t , i t s h o u l d be s t r e s s e d t h a t t h i s i s l i k e l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f i t s i n f a n c y , n o t an i n d i c a t i o n o f i t s p o t e n t i a l use v a l u e . The r e c e n t s h i f t i n emphasis from the a g g r e g a t e ^ t o the i n d i v i d u a l , and from the d e t e r m i n i s t i c t o 46 t h e p r o b a b i l i s t i c has been an i m p o r t a n t s t e p toward f u r t h e r -i n g our u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f how consumers behave i n a s p a t i a l c o n t e x t . D e s p i t e t h i s move i n the r i g h t d i r e c t i o n , B u n t i n g n o t e s t h a t , "As y e t . . . r e s e a r c h has n o t produced a c o h e r e n t body o f knowledge t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t l y augments our under-go s t a n d i n g o f man-environment m t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s . " y She f u r t h e r adds t h a t "...the l a r g e volume o f r e s e a r c h on e n v i r -onmental p e r c e p t i o n s , images, and p r e f e r e n c e s o f i n d i v i d u a l s has f u r n i s h e d no r e a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f a c t u a l b e h a v i o r p a t t -erns . " ^° I n e s s e n c e , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t u n t i l the f i e l d o f con-sumer s p a t i a l b e h a v i o r matures somewhat, and becomes a l i t t l e more f i r m l y e s t a b l i s h e d , a d d i n g the image measure to models such as the g r a v i t y model w i l l n o t prove f r u i t f u l enough t o m e r i t the a d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h r e q u i r e d . (E) Problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e s t i m a t i n g the f r i c t i o n o f  D i s t a n c e Parameter. A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s no q u e s t i o n t h a t the s i z e o f the shopp-i n g c e n t e r , and the d i s t a n c e from the consumer's r e s i d e n c e has a d i r e c t b e a r i n g on where consumers w i l l shop, "Consumers a l s o d i s p l a y d i f f e r e n c e s i n terms o f t h e i r w i l l i n g n e s s to t r a v -e l v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s f o r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f p r o d u c t s . T h i s a c c o u n t s f o r the d i s t a n c e exponent lambda. These v a r i a t i o n s can be a t t r i b u t e d c h i e f l y t o the v a l u e d i f f e r e n c e t h a t v a r -i o u s goods and s e r v i c e s p o s s e s s t o consumers. ^ Such v a l u e d i f f e r e n c e s are l a r g e l y based on: 47 1) The degree o f s u b s t i t u t i b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s p r o d u c t s ; 2) The e x p e c t e d a b s o l u t e p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l between d i f f e r e n t p r o d u c t s ; 3) The a b s o l u t e p r i c e of a p r o d u c t i n r e l a t i o n t o a consumer's income; and, 4) The degree o f p s y c h i c income a n t i c i p a t e d from d i f f -e r e n t p r o d u c t s ( e s s e n t i a l l y the s o c i a l p r e s t i g e v a l u e o f c e r t a i n g o o d s ) . When u s i n g most r e t a i l g r a v i t y models such as H u f f ' s , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t i f the c a l c u l a t e d e x p e c t e d s a l e s does n o t approximate the a c t u a l s a l e s , i t i s assumed t h a t the d i f f -erence i s ac c o u n t e d f o r by the f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e and a d j u s t -ments can be made by v a r y i n g the v a l u e o f lambda. The g r e a t e r the v a l u e o f the lambda exponent, the g r e a t e r the f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e , and hence, the s h o r t e r the d i s t a n c e the consumer i s w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l , and the l o w e r the p r o b a b i l i t y o f a p u r c h a s e . To e s t i m a t e the v a l u e o f lambda, H u f f made use o f a s u c c -e s s i v e a p p r o x i m a t i o n s o l u t i o n . The sequence o f s t e p s i n v o l v e d are as f o l l o w s : 1) Assume a p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e f o r lambda which i s g r e a t e r t h a n u n i t y . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , s u b s t i t u t e the v a l u e s f o r each o f the a p p r o p r i a t e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the model and c a l c u l a t e the e x p e c t e d p r o b a b i l i t i e s . 2) Compare the exp e c t e d p r o b a b i l i t i e s w i t h the a c t u a l r e l a t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s o b t a i n e d from the s u r v e y d a t a and c a l c u l a t e a c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t . 48 3) C o n t i n u e t o s u b s t i t u t e i n c r e m e n t a l v a l u e s f o r lambda u n t i l the h i g h e s t c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i s o b t a i n e d which w i l l r e p r e s e n t the optimum v a l u e of the parameter. ^ I n e s s e n c e , t h i s p r o c e d u r e c o n s i s t s o f a s e a r c h over a d e f i n e d i n t e r v a l t o f i n d a v a l u e o f lambda which g i v e s a l o w e r sum o f s q u a r e d d i f f e r e n c e s between the e x p e c t e d number o f p e o p l e s h o p p i n g and the o b s e r v e d number o f p e o p l e s h o p p i n g over the s t o r e l o c a t i o n s e t them some p r e d e t e r m i n e d 64 . a l l o w a b l e e r r o r . B a s i c a l l y , t h i s i s a n o n - l i n e a r l e a s t s quares approach. A n o t h e r common means of e s t i m a t i n g the parameter i s known as the m a x i m u m - l i k e l i h o o d method. T h i s method i s based on f i n d i n g the maximum of a l i k e l i h o o d f u n c t i o n which e x p r e s s e s the p r o b a b i l i t y o f d i f f e r e n t parameter v a l u e s p r o d u c i n g an observed r e s u l t . T h i s method has a s t r o n g i n t u i t i v e a p p e a l and a c c o r d i n g t o i t , one e s t i m a t e s the t r u e parameter by any s e t o f parameters which b e l o n g t o the most p l a u s i b l e s e t . O f t e n t h e r e i s a unique m a x i m i z i n g parameter s e t which i s the most p l a u s i b l e and t h u s the maximum l i k e l i h o o d e s t i m a t e . ^ A l t h o u g h b o t h s a l e s and s h o p p i n g t r i p d a t a can be used to c a l i b r a t e the parameter, s h o p p i n g t r i p d a t a i s more v a l i d s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i n c e a t r i v i a l s o l u t i o n g e n e r a l l y r e s u l t s when s a l e s i s used. As Openshaw comments, " I n t h i s case (the L a k s h -manan-Hansen model which uses cash f l o w s as the i n p u t ) the d a t a i s t o t a l l y i n adequate f o r the model and because o f t h i s 4-9 the t r i v i a l s o l u t i o n i s i n e v i t a b l e . . . these models cannot be e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e any s a t i s f a c t o r y b a s i s f o r d e s c r i b i n g r e t a i l systems and have l i t t l e s t a t i s t i c a l v a l i d i t y . The f a c t these models c o n t i n u e t o be g i v e n p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n r e f l e c t s b o th the absence o f any a l t e r n a t i v e , the l a c k o f 66 s u i t a b l e d a t a , and misuse o f the model i t s e l f . " N o n e t h e l e s s , the use o f t r i p d a t a , a l t h o u g h p o s s i b l y more v a l i d s t a t i s t i c a l l y , depends on the v a l i d i t y o f the assumption t h a t mean t r i p l e n g t h can be e s t i m a t e d when t r i p p a t t e r n i t s e l f i s n o t known. The o n l y f o r e s e e a b l e way to s o l v e t h i s problem i s t o a c t u a l l y c o l l e c t s h o p p i n g t r i p d a t a e i t h e r t h rough h o u s e h o l d s h o p p i n g t r i p q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , 67 o r even b e t t e r , s h o p p i n g d i a r i e s . ' Due to the i m p r a c t i -c a l i t y o f t h i s t a s k , s a l e s d a t a i s g e n e r a l l y p r e f e r r e d i n s p i t e o f i t s n o t e d d e f i c i e n c i e s . When u s i n g the models, Rhodes s u g g e s t s t h a t a d i f f e r -e n t exponent might need to be a p p l i e d t o each c e n t e r , s t o r e , or even each o f the i n d i v i d u a l goods o f f e r e d w i t h i n the c e n t e r s . Rhode's s t u d y a l s o h i n t e d t h a t the e x p e n d i t u r e g r a d i e n t s o ver d i s t a n c e may v a r y w i t h the so c i o e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e o f t h e • r e s i d e n t s o f each zone due to d i f f e r e n c e s 68 i n m o b i l i t y and c a r ownership. I t appears t h a t the a s s o -c i a t i o n between d i s t a n c e and the exponent would be a l o g i s -t i c c u r v e . T h i s means t h a t f o r s h o r t d i s t a n c e s s m a l l ex-ponents n e a r i n g zero w i l l be a p p r o p r i a t e , as d i s t a n c e s i n -c r e a s e , the exponent w i l l r i s e r a p i d l y but a t some p o i n t 50 t h i s r i s e w i l l he l e s s and alm o s t l e v e l o f f . °^ B u c k l i n ' s s t u d i e s show t h a t "The g r e a t e r the d i s t a n c e , the l a r g e r w i l l he the exponent t h a t m i n i m i z e s the e r r o r o f the model. The i m p l i e d g r a v i t y model t h e o r y t h a t t h e r e i s some u n i v e r s a l f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e f o r a g i v e n type o f s h o p p i n g t r i p , 70 l e . , an i n v a r i e n t exponent, i s , as a consequence i n c o r r e c t . ' " T h i s i m p l i e s d i f f i c u l t y , i n u s i n g the g r a v i t y model f o r a num-ber o f c e n t e r s because i f the d i s t a n c e s between the c e n t e r s v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y , the exponent used must r e p r e s e n t a comp-r o m i s e . W h i l e t h i s compromise may be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the e n t i r e group o f f a c i l i t i e s , t h i s exponent may make some v e r y bad p r e d i c t i o n s f o r i n d i v i d u a l c e n t e r s . A l s o r e i n f o r c i n g t h i s v a r i a b l e exponent i s the f a c t t h a t the lambda v a l u e w i l l be d i f f e r e n t f o r d i f f e r e n t s i z e d c e n t e r s due t o the v a r y i n g u t i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h these cen-t e r s . As H u f f notes,"The r e s u l t s o f the e m p i r i c a l s t u d y tends to i n d i c a t e t h a t the m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the '' s i z e o f a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i n c r e a s e s r a t h e r s l o w l y f o r s m a l l s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s , r i s e s r a t h e r markedly a t some l a r g e r l e v e l , and t h e n the m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y b e g i n s t o d e c l i n e w i t h s u c c e s s -i v e l y l a r g e r s i z e d c e n t e r s . Such a phenomenon s u g g e s t s t h a t t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p between m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y and s h o p p i n g c e n t e r 71 s i z e may take the form o f a l o g i s t i c c u r v e . " T h i s n o t i o n i s f u r t h e r s u b s t a n t i a t e d by Young's s t u d y i n P h i l a d e l p h i a , where he c o n c l u d e d t h a t the d i s t a n c e decay v a l u e f o r commun-i t y c e n t e r s s h o u l d be near 2.0, whereas f o r r e g i o n a l c e n t e r s 51 the exponent s h o u l d he n e a r u n i t y . ' Map p a t t e r n has a l s o been shown t o have an e f f e c t on the exponent and makes i t v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o e s t i m a t e the d i s t a n c e exponent i n e m p i r i c a l l y f i t t e d g r a v i t y models. I t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t because o f the map p a t t e r n e f f e c t , the d i s -tance exponent has n o t h i n g to do w i t h f r i c t i o n and e v e r y -t h i n g t o do w i t h map p a t t e r n ( p r i m a r i l y due t o a u t o c o r r e -l a t i o n among the p o p u l a t i o n v a l u e s ) . D i f f e r e n t degrees o f c l u s t e r i n g w i l l e x h i b i t d i f f e r e n t f r i c t i o n a l terms even i f 7 3 f r i c t i o n i s known to be c o n s t a n t . I J Thus, e s t i m a t e s o f the parameters can o n l y be o b t a i n e d i f o t h e r elements o f the s p a t i a l system are modeled t o o . To d a t e , such a s o l u t i o n has n o t been o b t a i n e d . D e r i v i n g a v a l u e f o r the lambda exponent p r e s e n t s one o f the g r e a t e s t problems i n a t t e m p t i n g t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e the v a r i o u s models. The v a l u e has to be e m p i r i c a l l y d e r -i v e d and t h e r e f o r e you can o n l y v a l i d l y use the models f o r a n a l y z i n g e x i s t i n g s h opping c e n t e r s . There i s a degree o f danger i n u s i n g analogous s i t u a t i o n s t o d e r i v e a v a l u e t o be used f o r a n a l y s i n g a proposed s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , due to the s e n s i t i v i t y o f the parameter. Even v e r y s m a l l changes i n the v a l u e can have a d r a s t i c impact on the end r e s u l t s , Thus, the models are r e a l l y o n l y u s e f u l as e x p l a n a t o r y t o o l s and have l i t t l e v a l u e i n terms o f p r e d i c t i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , most o f the methods advocated by the t h e o r i s t s f o r d e r i v i n g a lambda measure are e s s e n t i a l l y c u r v e - f i t t i n g e x e r c i s e s . 52 B a s i c a l l y , what t h e y are d o i n g i s f i t t i n g the model t o s u i t the s i t u a t i o n . I t i s no wonder t h a t t h e models p r e d i c t f a i r l y a c c u r a t e l y under t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s s i n c e the v a l u e o f the lambda chosen m i n i m i z e s the d i f f e r e n c e between obse r v e d and p r e d i c t e d s a l e s volume ( o r w h a t e v e r ) . I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t a g r e a t d e a l more r e s e a r c h i s r e -q u i r e d i n o r d e r t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e and i t s e f f e c t on sh o p p i n g c e n t e r c h o i c e . The models p r e d -i c t i o n s depend h e a v i l y on the v a l u e o f the exponent u s e d , and t h e r e appears to be no s a t i s f a c t o r y means o f d e t e r m i n i n g the v a l u e o f the measure s h o r t o f e m p i r i c a l l y f i t t i n g the model t o an e x i s t i n g o u t l e t . T h i s , however, does n o t s o l v e the problem f a c i n g the a n a l y s t t r y i n g t o p r e d i c t the s a l e s v o l -ume o f a proposed c e n t e r . C l e a r l y t h e r e i s danger i n u s i n g an analogous c e n t e r t o d e r i v e t h e measure. U n t i l t h i s p r o b -lem i s s o l v e d , the p r a c t i c a l v a l u e o f the model w i l l r e m a i n e x t r e m e l y l ow, no m a t t e r what a d a p t a t i o n s are made to the g e n e r a l d e s i g n o f the models. A l t h o u g h no d e t a i l e d d i s c u s -s i o n w i l l be g i v e n h e r e , e s t i m a t i n g the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s ex-ponent f o r t t h e s i z e v a r i a b l e (where a p p l i c a b l e ) p r e s e n t s a s i m i l a r s e t o f pro b l e m s . (F) Summary. T h i s r e v i e w o f the l i t e r a t u r e began w i t h a c r i t i q u e o f a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample o f g r a v i t y models, p a y i n g p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o the assumptions i n v o l v e d w i t h t h e i r use ( i e . t h a t a l l c e n t e r s are the same ex c e p t i n terms o f s i z e and d i s t a n c e ) , 53 the v a l i d i t y and range o f v a r i a b l e s u s e d , and t o some e x t e n t the problems i n v o l v e d w i t h t h e i r p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n . The a d d i t i o n o f image r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s was i d e n t i f i e d as a s t r o n g t r e n d i n much o f the r e c e n t work. I n many ways t h i s t r e n d i s a s p i n - o f f from the work t h a t i s b e i n g conducted i n the r e l a t e d f i e l d o f consumer s p a t i a l b e h a v i o r . A b r i e f o v e r - v i e w o f the r e l e v a n t work t h a t i s b e i n g done i n t h i s a r e a was g i v e n , and some o f the major problems t h a t were b e i n g e n c o u n t e r e d were i d e n t i f i e d . F i n a l l y , one o f the major problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the models o p e r a t i o n a l i z a -t i o n - the e s t i m a t i o n o f the lambda exponent-- was d i s c u s s e d . A l t h o u g h r e v i e w i n g the l i t e r a t u r e from t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e g i v e s some i n d i c a t i o n as t o why such approaches have f a i l e d t o d i f f u s e i n t o the b u s i n e s s w o r l d , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f why the p r a c t i c a l v a l u e o f these models i s e x t r e m e l y low can be o b t a i n e d through an a n a l y s i s o f the methods a c t u a l l y used i n p r a c t i c e , as t h i s w i l l g i v e some i n s i g h t i n t o the c o m p l e x i t i e s of the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o -c e s s . Thus, the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r i s a r e v i e w o f some o f these approaches. 54 .FOOTNOTES 1. R o b e r t W. McCabe. P l a n n i n g A p p l i c a t i o n Of R e t a i l  M odels. M i n i s t r y o f Economics And I n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l A f f a i r s , O n t a r i o , 1974. p 3 . 2. P e t e r Simons. "The shape of suburban r e t a i l market a r e a s : i m p l i c a t i o n s from a l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w . " J o u r n a l Of R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 49 ( 4 ) , 1974. p 69 . 3 . J a c L. G o l d s t u c k e r , Danny N. B e l l e n g e r , Thomas J . S t a n l e y and Ruth O t t e . New Developments I n R e t a i l T r a d i n g  A r e a A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n . G e o r g i a S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y . R e s e a r c h Monograph, No. 78. p 61 . 4 . D a v i d L. H u f f . "A note on the l i m i t a t i o n s o f i n t r a - u r b a n g r a v i t y models." Land Economics.- V o l . 3 8 , ; 1962. p 64. 5. I b i d , p 64. 6. Hans B l o o m e n s t e i n , P e t e r Nijkamp and Wouter Van V i e n e n d o a l . "Shopping p e r c e p t i o n and p r e f e r e n c e s : a m u l t i -d i m e n s i o n a l a n a l y s i s o f consumer and e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l a t t i -t u d e s . " Economic Geography. V o l . 56 ( 2 ) , 1980. p 160. 7. P e t e r S c o t t . Geography And R e t a i l i n g . London: H u t c h i n s o n U n i v e r s i t y L i b r a r y , 1970. p 178. 8. I b i d , p 178. 9. D a v i d L. H u f f . D e t e r m i n a t i o n Of I n t r a - u r b a n Trade  A r e a s . R e a l E s t a t e R e s e a r c h Program, U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r -n i a , Los A n g e l e s , 1962. p 7. 10. I b i d , p 7. 11. I b i d , p 9 . 12. J . P e r r y Lewis and A.L. T r a i l l . "The assessment of s h o p p i n g p o t e n t i a l and demand f o r shops." Town P l a n n i n g  Review. V o l . 38 ( 4 ) , p 320. 13- W i l l i a m B. Wagner. "A l o n g i t u d i n a l s t u d y o f r e -t a i l g r a v i t a t i o n between Columbus and S p r i n g f i e l d . " Edwin Rams ( e d . ) . A n a l y s i s And V a l u a t i o n Of R e t a i l L o c a t i o n s . 1975. P 127. 14. James R. C l a u s and W a l t e r G. H a r d w i c k . The M o b i l e  Consumer: A u t o m o b i l e O r i e n t e d R e t a i l i n g And S i t e S e l e c t i o n . C o l l i e r - M a c M i l l a n Canada L t d . , 1972. p 134. 55 15. David L. Huff. "A p r o b a b i l i s t i c < a n a l y s i s of shopping center trade areas." Land Economics. V o l . 29, 1963. p 84. 16. S c o t t . Geography And R e t a i l i n g , p 170. 17. Richard C. Nelson. The S e l e c t i o n Of R e t a i l  L o c a t i o n s . New York: F.W. Dodge Cor p o r a t i o n , 1958. p 144. 18. Huff. Determination Of Intra-urban Trade  Areas. ' p 7• 19. S c o t t . Geography And R e t a i l i n g , p 175' , 20. David L. Huff. "A programmed s o l u t i o n f o r app-roximating an optimum r e t a i l l o c a t i o n . " Land Economics. V o l . 42, 1966. p 295. 21. Goldstucker et a l . New Developments In R e t a i l  Trading Area A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n , p 25 . 2 2 . Huff. "A p r o b a b i l i s t i c a n a l y s i s of shopping center trade areas." p 85 . 23 . John R. Nevin and Michael J . Houston. "Image as a component of a t t r a c t i o n to i n t r a - u r b a n shopping areas." J o u r n a l Of R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 56 ( l ) , S p r i n g 1980. p 78. 24. Goldstucker et a l . New Developments In R e t a i l  Trading Area A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n , p 72. 2 5 . Nevin and Houstin. "Image 'as a component of a t t r a c t i o n to i n t r a - u r b a n shopping areas." p 78. •26. Goldstucker et a l . New Developments In R e t a i l  Trading Area A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n , p 70. 27. S c o t t . Geography And R e t a i l i n g , p 86. 28. T.J. Stanley and M.A. S e w e l l . "Image inputs to a p r o b a b i l i s t i c model: p r e d i c t i n g r e t a i l p o t e n t i a l . " J o u r n a l Of Marketing. V o l . 40 ( 3 ) , 1976. p 5 0 . 29. S c o t t . Geography And R e t a i l i n g , p 168. 30. Nevin and Houstin. "Image as a component of a t t r a c t i o n to i n t r a - u r b a n shopping areas." p 82. 31. I b i d , p 83 . 56 32. I b i d , p 83 . 33- I b i d , p 91 . 34. H u f f . "A p r o b a b i l i s t i c a n a l y s i s o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r t r a d e a r e a s . " p 85 . 35. L o u i s P. B u c k l i n . "The concept o f mass i n i n t r a -u r b a n s h o p p i n g . " J o u r n a l Of M a r k e t i n g . V o l . 3 11 1967. P<37. 36. I b i d , p 41. 37. I b i d , p 41. 38. Bryan Thompson. " I n t r a - u r b a n r e t a i l s t r u c t u r e : the supermarket s e c t o r . " J o u r n a l Of R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 4 3 , F a l l 1967. P 72. 39. S.M. T a y l o r . A n a l y s i s Of Consumer S p a t i a l Be- h a v i o r . ( U n p u b l i s h e d P.H.D. t h e s i s ) U.B.C. 1974. p~T98. 40. N e v i n and H o u s t i n . "Image as a component o f a t t r a c t i o n t o i n t r a - u r b a n s h o p p i n g a r e a s . " p 81. 41. S t a n l e y and S e w e l l . "Image i n p u t s t o a p r o b a b i -l i s t i c model: p r e d i c t i n g r e t a i l p o t e n t i a l . " p 52 . 42. I b i d , p 5 . 43. N e v i n and H o u s t i n . "Image as a component o f a t t r a c t i o n t o i n t r a - u r b a n s h o p p i n g a r e a s . " p 81. 44. I b i d , p 4 3 . 4 5 . Roger Downs. " C o g n i t i v e s t u c t u r e o f an urban shopping c e n t e r . " Environment and B e h a v i o r . V o l . 2, 1970. p 17. 46. M a r t i n C a d w a l l a d e r . "A b e h a v i o r a l model o f con-sumer s p a t i a l d e c i s i o n making." Economic Geography. V o l . 51, October 1975. P 343-47. T a y l o r . A n a l y s i s Of Consumer S p a t i a l B e h a v i o r . P 56. 48. Leon S c h i f f m a n , Joseph F. Dash and W i l l i a m R. D i l l o n . "The c o n t r i b u t i o n o f s t o r e image c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o s t o r e type c h o i c e . " J o u r n a l Of R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 53 ( 2 ) , p 10. 57 4 9 . V. P a r k e r L e s s i g . "Consumer s t o r e images and s t o r e l o y a l t i e s . " J o u r n a l Of M a r k e t i n g . October 1973* P 73 . 50. P e t e r Doyle and I a n Fenwick. "How s t o r e image a f f e c t s s h o p p i n g h a b i t s i n g r o c e r y c h a i n s . " J o u r n a l Of  R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 50 ( 4 ) , W i n t e r 1974-75- P ^1. 51 . Downs. " C o g n i t i v e s t r u c t u r e o f an urban shopp-i n g c e n t e r . " p 3 8 . 52. T a y l o r . A n a l y s i s Of Consumer S p a t i a l B e h a v i o r . P 23 . 53. J.R. E n g e l , D.J. K o l l a t and R.D. B l a c k w e l l . Consumer B e h a v i o r . (3 ed.) New Yor k : H o l t , R h i n e h a r t and W i n s t o n , 1979- P 22 . 54. R i c h a r d Cordozo. "How images v a r y by p r o d u c t c l a s s . " J o u r n a l Of R e t a i l i n g . V o l . 50 ( 4 ) , 1974-75. P 90. 55. George H a i n e s H.J.R., Leonard Simon and Marcus A l e x i s . "An a n a l y s i s o f c e n t r a l c i t y neighbourhood f o o d t r a d i n g a r e a s . " J o u r n a l Of R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e . V o l . 12 ( l ) , 1072. p 96. 56. I b i d . 57- H u f f . "A note on the l i m i t a t i o n s o f i n t r a - u r b a n g r a v i t y models." p 64. 58. Ross D a v i e s . "Comments on the problems o f c a l i -b r a t i n g s h o p p i n g models." R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s . V o l . 8 ( 4 ) , . 1974. p 307. 59- T r u d i E. B u n t i n g and Leonard G u e l k e . " B e h a v i o r -a l and p e r c e p t u a l geography: a c r i t i c a l a p p r a i s a l . " A n n a l s  Of The American A s s o c i a t i o n Of Geographers. V o l . 69 ( 3 ) , 1970. p 451. 6 0 . I b i d , p 460. 6 1 . H u f f . D e t e r m i n a t i o n Of I n t r a - u r b a n Trade A r e a s , p 19 62. I b i d , p 19. 63. I b i d , p 23 . 64. H a i n e s , Simon and A l e x i s . "An a n a l y s i s o f c e n t r a l c i t y neighbourhood f o o d t r a d i n g a r e a s . " p 100. 58 65. S. Openshaw. "Some t h e o r e t i c a l and a p p l i e d a s p e c t s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n s h o p p i n g models." Catmog. (Concepts and t e c h n i q u e s i n modern geography) No. 4 , 1975. P 12. 66. S. Openshaw. " I n s o l v a b l e problems i n s h o p p i n g model c a l i b r a t i o n when t r i p p a t t e r n i s not known." R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s . V o l . 7 ( 4 ) , 1973- P 370. 67. I b i d , p 370. 68. Tim Rhodes and Roy W h i t a k e r . " F o r e c a s t i n g s h o p p i n g demand." J o u r n a l Of The Town P l a n n i n g I n s t i t u t e . V o l . 53 . 1962. p 189. 69. L o u i s P. B u c k l i n . " R e t a i l g r a v i t y models and consumer choice*, a t h e o r e t i c a l and e m p i r i c a l c r i t i q u e . " Economic Geography. V o l . 57, 1971. P 4-92. 70. L o u i s P. B u c k l i n . "Trade a r e a b o u n d a r i e s ! some i s s u e s i n t h e o r y and methodology." J o u r n a l o f  M a r k e t i n g R e s e a r c h . V o l . 8, 1971. P 37. 71. H u f f . D e t e r m i n a t i o n Of I n t r a - u r b a n Trade  A r e a s . p 5 . 72. W i l l i a m J . Young. " D i s t a n c e decay v a l u e s and s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i z e . " P r o f e s s i o n a l Geographer. V o l . 27, 1975. P 307. 73. A.D. C l i f f , R.L. M a r t i n and J.F. Ord. " E v a l u a t -i n g the f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e parameter i n g r a v i t y models." R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s . V o l . 8 ( 4 ) , 1974. p 285. 59 CHAPTER 3  TRADE AREA ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE (A) I n t r o d u c t i o n . R e v i e w i n g the l i t e r a t u r e d i s p l a y s r a t h e r c l e a r l y t h a t many of the academics i n v o l v e d i n r e t a i l l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s have l i t t l e o r no knowledge of r e t a i l i n g and the c o n s t r a i n t s p l a c e d upon the p r a c t i t i o n e r s . I t i s f e l t t h a t the b e s t way t o g a i n an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l v a l u e o f the v a r i o u s t h e o r e t i c a l approaches f a v o r e d by the academics, i s t o a c h i e v e a g r e a t e r a p p r e c i a t i o n o f the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s by t a l k i n g to p e o p l e p r e s e n t l y i n v o l v e d i n the p l a n n -i n g and development of r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s . Thus, a number of c o n s u l t a n t s , p l a n n e r s , d e v e l o p e r s , and s t o r e merchants were i n t e r v i e w e d i n an attempt t o determine the methods and p r o -c e s s e s i n v o l v e d (see appendices A t h r o u g h D f o r q u e s t i o n n -a i r e s ) . The b u l k of the i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s e n t e d w i t h i n t h i s c h a p t e r i s a r e s u l t o f t h i s i n t e r v i e w i n g , a l t h o u g h a number of o t h e r s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n such as f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s were a l s o u t i l i z e d . Of c o u r s e , f o r r e a s o n s o f c o n f i d e n t i a l -i t y , the names o f the f i r m s i n v o l v e d cannot be u s e d . A l t h o u g h n o t a l l o f the c r i t e r i a thought t o be c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the a r e a l e x t e n t o f a t r a d e a r e a were mentioned i n the i n t e r v i e w s , i t was c l e a r t h a t on the whole, c o n s i d e r a t i o n was g i v e n t o a good p o r t i o n o f them. F o r ex-ample, one c o n s u l t a n t f i r m s t a t e d t h a t the s i z e o f a t r a d e a r e a i s a f u n c t i o n o f the c e n t e r ' s s i z e , l o c a l and r e g i o n a l 1 60 a c c e s s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and d r i v i n g t i m e s , the s t r e n g t h and l o c a t i o n o f c o m p e t i t i v e r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s , and n a t u r a l or man-made h a r r i e r s . They f e l t t h a t these were the o n l y s i g n i -f i c a n t c r i t e r i a t h a t c o u l d be used a t such an e a r l y s t a g e i n t h e p r o c e s s ( i e . b e f o r e the i n c e p t i o n o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r ) s i n c e o t h e r r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s such as the c h a r a c t e r , d e s i g n q u a l i t i e s , p l a n n i n g , and t o some e x t e n t the tenancy o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , c o u l d n o t be f i r m l y e s t a b l i s h e d u n t i l a l a t e r p o i n t i n t i m e . E v e n , a f t e r the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s e s -t a b l i s h e d , the s p a t i a l e x t e n t o f the t r a d e a r e a i s dynamic. As Kane p o i n t s o u t , "...the g e n e r a l shape and i n t e n s i t y o f a supermarket's ( i n t h i s s p e c i f i c c ase) t r a d e a r e a are sub-j e c t to change. A new manager, a new c o m p e t i t o r , a new m e r c h a n d i s i n g p o l i c y , a new highway, a new and l a r g e h o u s i n g development, a c o n s i d e r a b l e e x p a n s i o n o f s a l e s a r e a - are a l l e vents t h a t can e f f e c t a major change i n a supermarket's t r a d i n g a r e a . " I n a s m a l l town the b o u n d a r i e s o f a t r a d e a r e a are f a i r l y o b v i o u s , c o m p r i s i n g most or a l l o f the town p r o p e r , as w e l l as the o u t l y i n g r u r a l a r e a s . I n an u r ban environment, the b o u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d i n g a r e a s o f competing f a c i l i t i e s o v e r -l a p , making the d e l i n e a t i o n o f t h e s e b o u n d a r i e s q u i t e a b i t more d i f f i c u l t . F o r the purposes of the f o r t h c o m i n g d i s c u s -s i o n , t h e r e f o r e , i t s h a l l be assumed t h a t we are d e a l i n g ex-c l u s i v e l y w i t h the u r ban c a s e . One o f the main purposes o f d e l i n e a t i n g a t r a d e a r e a i s 61 t h a t i t d e f i n e s the a r e a o f s t u d y and thus a i d s i n e s t i m a t -i n g the p o t e n t i a l volume o f s a l e s t h a t the s u b j e c t c e n t e r might c a p t u r e . W i t h o u t an i d e a as to where you e x p e c t y o u r t r a d e t o come from, a r e l i a b l e market a n a l y s i s would be q u i t e a b i t more d i f f i c u l t . B a s i c a l l y , a market a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s whether s u f f i -c i e n t consumer b u y i n g power e x i s t s , whether r e t a i l merchan-d i s e needs are s a t i s f i e d , whether changes i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s -i n c l u d i n g b u y i n g h a b i t s and t r a v e l p a t t e r n s - w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a are c h a n g i n g , and whether growth p o t e n t i a l s j u s t i f y the type and s i z e o f c e n t e r proposed to be b u i l t . The a n a l y s i s a l s o e v a l u a t e s the c o m p e t i t i o n and e x i s t i n g r e t a i l c o n d i -t i o n , tempered by p r o s p e c t s f o r the immediate f u t u r e . A l -most w i t h o u t e x c e p t i o n , a l l s a l e s volume e s t i m a t i o n s i n v o l v e two s t e p s : l ) a d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f how much b u s i n e s s i s a v a i l -a b l e w i t h i n the b o u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d e a r e a , and* 2 ) an e s t i -m a t i o n o f how much o f t h a t b u s i n e s s the proposed s h o p p i n g cen-t e r can ex p e c t t o c a p t u r e . To conduct a market a n a l y s i s , the l i t e r a t u r e i d e n t i f i e s the f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s as b e i n g i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s : 1) p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y , d i s t r i b u t i o n , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and t r e n d s ; 2) e x i s t i n g r e t a i l s a l e s i n c o m p e t i t i v e c e n t e r s ; 3) f a m i l y income; 4) average monthly r e n t , v a l u e s , o w n e r s h i p , and c o n d i t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s , as they r e f l e c t the r e t a i l p o t e n -t i a l o f an a r e a ; 5) a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f the t r a d e a r e a t o the proposed s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , and; 6) c e r t a i n o t h e r f a c t o r s such 62 as p r e s e n t b u y i n g h a b i t s . A l t h o u g h the l i t e r a t u r e i d e n -t i f i e s t hese f a c t o r s as b e i n g s a l i e n t , the f o l l o w i n g d i s -c u s s i o n s h o u l d c l e a r l y d i s p l a y t h a t i n p r a c t i c e , n o t a l l o f t h e s e f a c t o r s are always t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n , and the degree o f t h e i r use v a r i e s c o n s i d e r a b l y depending upon the p a r t i c u l a r f i r m s methodology. T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l c o n s i s t o f a r e v i e w o f the methodol-o g i e s espoused by t h e businessmen f o r d e l i n e a t i n g the boun-d a r i e s o f the t r a d e a r e a s and i n t u r n e s t i m a t i n g the f a c i l i t y ' s market p o t e n t i a l . A l t h o u g h n o t a l l o f the approaches s p e c i -f i e d i n the i n t e r v i e w i n g w i l l be d e a l t w i t h here d i r e c t l y , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t an adequate p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the most r e p -r e s e n t a t i v e ones i s g i v e n . R a t h e r t h a n d e a l i n g w i t h t r a d e a r e a d e l i n e a t i o n and market a n a l y s i s i n s e p a r a t e s e c t i o n s , i t i s f e l t t h a t i t would be more i n f o r m a t i v e to d e a l w i t h each f i r m ' s approach i n e n t i r e t y . Thus the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n i s broken down i n t o t h r e e case s t u d i e s . (B) Methods o f t r a d e a r e a a n a l y s i s ,  ( i ) Case s t u d y one. A l t h o u g h p r i m a r i l y a method used o n l y by s u p e r m a r k e t s , the analogue approach i s a p o t e n t i a l l y v a l u a b l e t o o l f o r b oth the d e l i n e a t i o n o f t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s and the e s t i m a t i o n o f t o t a l s a l e s f o r most ty p e s o f s t o r e s , and f o r t h a t m a t t e r , s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s as a whole. A l t h o u g h the analogue approach has r e c e i v e d a s i g n i f i c a n t amount of a t t e n t i o n by v a r i o u s 63 academics (Applebaum, 1966, Kane, 1966) these works are f a i r l y d a t e d , and the ob v i o u s t r e n d i n the l i t e r a t u r e i s away from such approaches. F o r the s e r e a s o n s , i t i s j u s t i -f i a b l e t o r e g a r d t h i s method s o l e l y as a b u s i n e s s type app-r o a c h . I t s h o u l d a l s o be p o i n t e d out t h a t t h i s approach was b e i n g p r a c t i c e d p r i o r t o any d i s c u s s i o n o f i t by the academics. In' s h o r t , the analogue approach e n t a i l s s t u d y i n g a l l of the r e l e v a n t c r i t e r i a o f a f i r m ' s e x i s t i n g s t o r e s ' t r a d e a r e a s and t h e n a p p l y i n g t h i s knowledge t o a proposed s t o r e (assuming here we are d e a l i n g w i t h a c h a i n o f s t o r e s , but t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s n o t b e l i e v e d t o be a n e c e s s i t y ) . The u n d e r l y i n g p r i n c i p l e b e i n g t h a t i f t h e t r a d e a r e a i s g i v e n s i z e and shape f o r an e x i s t i n g s t o r e , the same s i t u a t i o n s h o u l d r e s u l t i n an analogous c i r c u m s t a n c e . As Kane p o i n t s out "...two supermarkets i n the same type l o c a t i o n a re l i k e l y to have l a r g e l y s i m i l a r t r a d i n g a r e a s , even though the s t o r e s are i n d i f f e r e n t c i t i e s . The a p p l i c a t i o n o f these f a c t s , w h ich are s u p p o r t e d by y e a r s o f customer d i s t r i b u t i o n and t r a d i n g a r e a a n a l y s i s , i s both o b v i o u s and h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t ...the a p p l i c a t i o n becomes e s p e c i a l l y sharpened when a s t a t e -ment can be made about the market o f a s i n g l e company." ^ N e v e r t h e l e s s , as H o r t o n p o i n t s o u t , one must be c a r e f u l when u s i n g the analogue approach because i t i s h a r d t o use the s h o p p i n g p a t t e r n s o f one p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n t o p r e d i c t them f o r a n o t h e r s i n c e two a r e a s seldom have i d e n t i c a l shopp-i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s . "Hence, i t i s n e c e s s a r y to i s o l a t e and 64 u t i l i z e f a c t o r s which u n d e r l i e the v a r i a t i o n i n the a t t r a c -t i o n c a p a b i l i t i e s o f s p e c i f i c r e t a i l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s . I n e f f e c t , r e s e a r c h s h o u l d f o c u s on the e s t a b l i s h m e n t s s e l e c -t e d r a t h e r t h a n the i n d i v i d u a l consumer." ^ H o r t o n f u r t h e r adds t h a t the main problem w i t h the analogue approach i s t h a t i t makes no attempt t o seek the c a u s i t i v e f a c t o r s 7 u n d e r l y i n g the observed b e h a v i o r . ' The f i r s t s t e p i s to determine the t r a d e a r e a boundar-i e s o f the f i r m ' s e x i s t i n g s t o r e s . There a re a number o f methods through which t h i s t a s k can be completed. F o r ex-ample, one f i r m c o n t i n u a l l y c o nducts i n - s t o r e s u r v e y s (em-p h a s i z i n g p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e and h o u s h o l d s i z e ) and have found t h i s t o be an e x c e l l e n t means o f d e t e r m i n g t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s . They have a l s o found t h a t l i c e n s e p l a t e s u r v e y s o f the c a r s i n t h e i r p a r k i n g l o t s i s a h i g h l y s u c c e s s f u l means o f d e t e r m i n i n g the a r e a l e x t e n t o f t h e i r p a t r o n a g e . From t h i s r e s e a r c h t h e y have been a b l e t o e s t a b l i s h a number o f r u l e s - o f - t h u m b , t h a t when e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t e d a re c o n s i s t e n t l y a c c u r a t e . F o r example, t h e y have found t h a t g i v e n a normal c o m p e t i t i v e network and a t y p i c a l r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a , p e o p l e w i l l o n l y t r a v e l one and o n e - h a l f m i l e s t o p u r -chase g r o c e r i e s from one o f t h e i r s t o r e s . I f the s i t u a t i o n i s n o t t y p i c a l , a d j u s t m e n t s can be made a c c o r d i n g t o the q u a l -i t y o f the proposed and e x i s t i n g c o m p e t i t i v e f a c i l i t i e s , as w e l l as r o a d p a t t e r n s and n a t u r a l or man-made b a r r i e r s . The degree o f such ad j u s t m e n t s i s most o f t e n d e t e r m i n e d by a n a l o -gous s i t u a t i o n s . 65 Once t h e y have d e t e r m i n e d the t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s , the n e x t s t e p - i n the p r o c e s s i s t o conduct a p o p u l a t i o n c o u n t . To do t h i s t h e y g e n e r a l l y g r i d the t r a d e a r e a i n t o o n e - h a l f m i l e c e l l s (sometimes o n e - q u a r t e r m i l e c e l l s ) and i n t u r n count the p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n each one o f t h e s e segments. A l t h o u g h p o p u l a t i o n c o u n t s are based p r i m a r i l y on census mat-e r i a l , t h e y spend a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f time k e e p i n g t h e s e f i g u r e s up t o d a t e . They are c o n t i n u a l l y i n t o u c h w i t h the v a r i o u s c i t y a u t h o r i t i e s i n o r d e r t o keep a b r e a s t o f a r e l e -v a n t o c c u r a n c e . They a l s o r e c e i v e v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n from hydro and t e l e p h o n e companies r e g a r d i n g any new c o n n e c t i o n s . As w e l l , t h e y keep i n t o u c h w i t h p o s t o f f i c e s as t h e y update t h e i r p o s t a l walk i n f o r m a t i o n a t l e a s t once or t w i c e a y e a r . T h i s i s a n a t i o n wide c h o r e , n o t j u s t one conducted i n the a r e a t h e y are p r o p o s i n g t o open a new s t o r e . F o r example, f o r e v e r y w e s t e r n c i t y ( t h e i r o u t l e t s are o n l y i n the west) t h e y w i l l have the e n t i r e a r e a g r i d d e d o f f , w i t h up t o date p o p u l a t i o n counts f o r each c e l l . I n e s s e n c e , t h e y f e e l t h a t p o p u l a t i o n i s the key v a r i a b l e when c o n s i d e r i n g market p o t e n -t i a l . A s i d e from the p o p u l a t i o n c o u n t s , t h e y a l s o devote a g r e a t d e a l o f e f f o r t t o s t u d y i n g the demographic c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s o f the p o p u l a t i o n s i n c e e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s have d i s -p l a y e d t h a t i t i s an i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t i n r e g a r d s t o how much b u s i n e s s i s u l t i m a t e l y r e c e i v e d . F o r example, i t has been found t h a t d i f f e r e n t e t h n i c groups d i s p l a y d i f f e r e n t l i f e s t y l e s and t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . They have a l s o found t h a t a 66 h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f o l d e r p e o p l e has a n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e on the l e v e l s o f e x p e n d i t u r e , whereas younger groups r e p r e s e n t h i g h s p e n d e r s . They f e e l t h a t hy the time t h e y complete t h i s p r e l i m i n a r y r e s e a r c h t h e y know a l l t h e y need t o know ahout the p o p u l a t i o n of t h e i r t r a d e a r e a . The n e x t s t e p i n the p r o c e s s i s t o a n a l y z e the c o m p e t i -t i o n . A g a i n t h i s s t a g e r e l i e s h e a v i l y on f i e l d work. T h i s f i r m contends t h a t t h e y have v i s i t e d e v e r y supermarket i n w e s t e r n Canada. They have d e v i s e d a c h e c k l i s t ( d e a l i n g w i t h a c c e s s , s i z e , appearance, p a r k i n g , number of c h e c k o u t s e t c . ) t h a t t h e y use t o a n a l y z e t h e i r own, and the c o m p e t i t i v e o u t -l e t s . They a l s o t r y and determine the o r i g i n o f t h e i r compe-t i t o r ' s customers; p r i m a r i l y t h r o u g h l i c e n s e p l a t e s u r v e y s . T h i s g i v e s them a f a i r l y a c c u r a t e i d e a as t o how many c u s t o -mers t h e y w i l l l i k e l y be a b l e t o c a p t u r e w i t h t h e i r new s t o r e . F u r t h e r m o r e , such s u r v e y s , i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the s u r v e y s of t h e i r own s t o r e s , a l l o w s f o r r e a d y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f v o i d s i n market co v e r a g e , t h u s i n d i c a t i n g p o t e n t i a l l o c a -t i o n s f o r new s t o r e s . Q u i t e r e g u l a r i l y , i n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e i r image r e l a t i v e t o t h e i r c o m p e t i t o r s , t h e y w i l l i n i t i a t e p a n e l d i s c u s s i o n s . T h i s i n v o l v e s o b s e r v i n g d i s c u s s i o n s between p a n e l l e a d e r s and f o o d shoppers from b e h i n d a two-way m i r r o r . The purpose o f t h i s i s t o f i n d out why p e o p l e shop where t h e y do. T h i s i n t u r n h e l p s them t o f i n d ways t o improve t h e i r image, and hence t h e i r drawing power. Once t h e y "know more about the p e o p l e w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a t h a n the p e o p l e know about them-67 s e l v e s " t h e y r e l y m a i n l y on s u b j e c t i v e judgement based on p a s t e x p e r i e n c e to e s t i m a t e the s a l e s p o t e n t i a l o f the new s t o r e . From s t u d y i n g analogous s i t u a t i o n s t h e y have a f a i r l y good i d e a as to the s i z e o f market a r e a and the p e n e t r a t i o n t h e y w i l l r e c e i v e when l o c a t i n g w i t h i n a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r , a community c e n t e r , and a neighbourhood c e n t e r or f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e (the l a t t e r two are r e g a r d e d as the same), g i v e n v a r i o u s c o n d i t i o n s . They have a l s o found t h a t t h i s knowledge, when a p p l i e d t o demographic, s i t e and l o c a t i o n s p e c i f i c v a r i a -b l e s , a l l o w s them t o make c o n s i s t a n t l y a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the amount of t r a d e t h a t they can e x p e c t to cap-t u r e . I n s h o r t , t h e y f e e l t h a t the most v a l u a b l e s o u r c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e t o them i s t h e i r e x i s t i n g s t o r e s . I n summary, the analogue approach i n v o l v e s a g r e a t d e a l o f r e s e a r c h i n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d most e v e r y t h i n g about the e x i s t i n g s t o r e ' s t r a d e a r e a s - from the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of i t s p o p u l a t i o n , t o the s t o r e s a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o t h a t p o p u l a t i o n -so t h a t t h i s knowledge can be used f o r d e t e r m i n i n g the f e a s -i b i l i t y o f a p r o p o s e d s t o r e . C l e a r l y , the f i r m would have to be o p ening q u i t e a few new s t o r e s each y e a r i f i t i s to j u s t i f y the c o n t i n u i n g r e s e a r c h c o s t s . I n t u i t i v e judgment p l a y s a l a r g e r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g which s i t u a t i o n can be viewed as analogous and what a d a p t a -t i o n s must be made, s i n c e no two s i t u a t i o n s are e v e r i d e n t i c a l . S i n c e each c i r c u m s t a n c e i s d i f f e r e n t i n one way o r a n o t h e r , i t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o determine what forms these a d j u s t m e n t s must t a k e . F u r t h e r , t h i s method cannot r e a l l y p i c k up on the 68 v a r i o u s b e h a v i o r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the r e s i d e n t s i n two d i f f e r e n t a r e a s so i t i s n o t always s a f e t o s i m p l y assume t h a t the r e s i d e n t s i n the two areas w i l l r e s p o n d i d e n t i c a l l y i n s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n s . To m i n i m i z e t h i s s o r t o f r i s k the f i r m would have t o have s t u d i e d a g r e a t number o f s t o r e s . S t i l l , t h e r e i s no t h e o r e t i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r e x p l a i n i n g why o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s o c c u r as t h e y do, s i n c e no attempt i s made t o u n d e r s t a n d the u n d e r l y i n g p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d i n the consumer's d e c i s i o n making, and i n g e n e r a l , what f a c t o r s he h o l d s s a l i e n t . N e v e r t h e l e s s , e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e has proven t h i s method t o be q u i t e a c c u r a t e , a t l e a s t i n the case of s u p e r m a r k e t s . T h i s approach i s p r o b a b l y e s p e c i a l l y c o n d u c i v e t o su p e r -m a r k e t s . S t o r e l o y a l t y i s q u i t e common i n t h i s type o f shopp-i n g , and the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s t h a t antecedes the pu r -chase o f convenience goods i s n o t as complex as i t i s b e l i e v e d to be f o r s h o p p i n g goods. I t i s a l s o f e l t t h a t t h i s method i s p r i n c i p a l l y s u i t e d f o r c h a i n s t o r e o p e r a t i o n s . As was mentioned, the company i n v o l v e d would have t o be opening q u i t e a few new s t o r e s a y e a r t o j u s t i f y the n e c e s s a r y r e s e a r c h c o s t s , and c h a i n s t o r e s seem t o be the o n l y ones t o meet t h i s r e q u i r e -ment. I t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e as t o whether a s i n g l e s t o r e merch-ant c o u l d s i m p l y s t u d y the s i t u a t i o n o f an o t h e r merchant s e l l -i n g s i m i l a r merchandise because t h e r e would be too many f a c t o r s t h a t c o u l d n o t a d e q u a t e l y be c o n s i d e r e d i n the a n a l y s i s . F o r example, whereas n a t i o n a l c h a i n s t o r e s t e n d t o h o l d s i m i l a r images i n the p a t r o n ' s minds from one a r e a t o a n o t h e r , d i f f e r e n t 69 images would be h a r d t o account f o r i n the case o f l o c a l s t o r e f i r m s . I n e s s e n c e , i t i s f e l t t h a t a g r e a t d e a l more r e s e a r c h and e m p i r i c a l t e s t i n g on o t h e r t y p e s of s t o r e s and sh o p p i n g c e n t e r s as a whole must be conducted b e f o r e the g e n e r a l app-l i c a b i l i t y o f t h i s approach can t r u l y be d e t e r m i n e d . ( i i ) Case s t u d y two. The second method t o be d i s c u s s e d , a l t h o u g h p o s s i b l y a c o n c e p t u a l l y weaker approach t h a n the analogue, i s f a r more common. The p r i n c i p l e i s t h a t i n o r d e r t o d e l i n e a t e the bo u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d e a r e a , the a n a l y s t must a n a l y z e the s t r e n g t h and weaknesses o f t h e competing f a c i l i t y ' s t e n a n t mix i n r e l a t i o n t o the o u t l e t i n q u e s t i o n . C l e a r l y , such a method i s somewhat a r b i t r a r y , p a r t i c u l a r i l y i f a sho p p i n g c e n t e r i s t h e f o c u s o f i n t e r e s t s i n c e the c o n c e i v e d t e n a n t mix o f the proposed c e n t e r i s seldom i d e n t i c a l t o what a c t -u a l l y r e s u l t s , and as w i l l become i n c r e a s i n g l y e v i d e n t , t h i s c o u l d have a p r o f o u n d e f f e c t . A l t h o u g h o c c a s i o n a l l y the t r a d e a r e a i s drawn f o r each i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e , the most common p r a c -t i c e i s s i m p l y t o draw a boundary f o r the convenience goods (which i s e s s e n t i a l l y t he p r i m a r y boundary) and one f o r the s p e c i a l t y and/or s h o p p i n g goods ( f o r a l l i n t e n t s and p u r p o s e s , the secondary b o u n d a r y ) . As a g e n e r a l r u l e , i f the c o m p e t i t i o n ' s convenience good mix i s s i m i l a r t o the s u b j e c t c e n t e r ' s , the boundary o f the p r i m a r y t r a d e a r e a s h o u l d l i e about h a l f w a y between the two c e n t e r s , a l l o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l . On the o t h e r hand, i f 70 one of the c e n t e r s o f f e r s a g r e a t d e a l more ( l i k e l y a l a r g e r s i z e d c e n t e r ) o r i f a c c e s s t o one o f the c e n t e r s i s c o n s i d e r -a b l y b e t t e r , the boundary must be s h i f t e d i n f a v o r o f the s u p e r i o r c e n t e r . T h i s s h i f t i s g e n e r a l l y n o t too g r e a t though due to the i n h e r e n t d e s i r e o f consumers t o m i n i m i z e the d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d t o purchase convenience goods. T h i s p r o c e d u r e w i l l be r e p e a t e d f o r each o f the c o m p e t i t i v e o u t -l e t s e n c i r c l i n g the proposed c e n t e r . A l i n e i s the n drawn c o n n e c t i n g the p o i n t s ; thus the p r i m a r y boundary. When draw-i n g the l i n e c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s a l s o g i v e n t o a c c e s s c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s as w e l l as any n a t u r a l or man-made b a r r i e r s t h a t might p h y s i c a l l y o r p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y impede consumer t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . A l t h o u g h the secondary boundary o f the t r a d e a r e a i s a l i t t l e more d i f f i c u l t t o e s t a b l i s h t h a n the p r i m a r y boun-d a r y , the b a s i c method i s the same. The f i r s t s t e p i s to compare the s t r e n g t h and weaknesses o f the s h o p p i n g goods and s p e c i a l t y goods s t o r e s o f the c o m p e t i t i o n and proposed s t o r e . The boundary i s t h e n drawn i n the same f a s h i o n as i t was f o r the p r i m a r y goods. I n most cases the secondary boundary w i l l f a l l i n s i d e o f the p r i m a r y boundary o f the s u r r o u n d i n g s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s , s i n c e p e o p l e a re w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s t o purchase th e s e goods t h a n con-v e n i e n c e goods. T h i s o v e r l a p i s a l s o a r e s u l t o f the f a c t t h a t the s p e c i a l t y goods and s h o p p i n g goods t e n a n t mix o f the v a r i o u s competing c e n t e r s i s seldom i d e n t i c a l . I f one c e n t e r has a music s t o r e and a n o t h e r does n o t , p e o p l e from w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a o f the s t o r e t h a t does n ot have the 71 music s t o r e w i l l have t o t r a v e l t o the one t h a t does, hence, the o v e r l a p p i n g b o u n d a r i e s . I n e s s e n c e , u s i n g t h i s a p proach, the b o u n d a r i e s of the t r a d e a r e a are a r b i t r a r i l y drawn t h r o u g h a s t u d y o f the s t r e n g t h and weakness o f the c o m p e t i t i o n r e l a -t i v e t o the proposed c e n t e r , and m o d i f i e d i n r e l a t i o n t o a c c e s s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and r o a d p a t t e r n s . A l t h o u g h t h i s approach has p r o v e n i t s e l f t o be f a i r l y r e l i a b l e , t h e r e are a number of i n h e r e n t problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t s use. As was mentioned, the p r i n c i p l e problem, when sho p p i n g c e n t e r s are the f o c u s of i n t e r e s t , i s t h a t i t i s h i g h l y a r b i t r a r y s i n c e the a c t u a l t e n a n t mix o f the proposed c e n t e r i s n e v e r known a t the time o f the market a n a l y s i s . Thus f a i r l y s i g n i f i c a n t assumptions a r e r e q u i r e d ; the most s e r i o u s one b e i n g t h a t the assumed t e n a n t mix i s s i m i l a r t o the a c t u a l t e n a n t mix. C l e a r l y , i f t h i s a s s u m p t i o n does n o t h o l d t r u e , the o v e r a l l p i c t u r e can change q u i t e d r a m a t i c a l l y . F o r t u n a t e l y however, e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t the i n t e r n a l s t r u c -t u r e of s i m i l a r type s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s ( i e r e g i o n a l , community or neighbourhood s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s ) v a r i e s l i t t l e . The o n l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e might be i n the a c t u a l anchor t e n a n t (s) r e p r e s e n t e d ( i e Sears vs Woodwards). T h i s t e n a n t however, i s g e n e r a l l y s e c u r e d b e f o r e the f i n a l market a n a l y s i s i s completed. The r e a s o n f o r the s i m i l a r i t y i n the t e n a n t mixes o f s i m i -l a r s i z e d s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i s the h i g h degree of r e p r e s e n t a -t i o n o f n a t i o n a l type t e n a n t s . Shopping c e n t e r d e v e l o p e r s are f o r c e d t o a c c e p t a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e s e t y p e s o f t e n a n t s s i n c e f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s are wary of g r a n t i n g l o a n s t o 72 d e v e l o p e r s whose sh o p p i n g c e n t e r s do n o t have a h i g h p r o -p o r t i o n of e s t a b l i s h e d " t r i p l e A" s t o r e s , due t o t h e i r ex-c e l l e n t c r e d i t r a t i n g s . " T h i s i n s i s t a n c e t h a t a l a r g e p r o -p o r t i o n o f the space be r e n t e d t o companies of h i g h c r e d i t r a t i n g s may appear t o have a tendancy t o s t r a i g h t j a c k e t the d e v e l o p e r ; i t n e c e s s i t a t e s h i s r e n t i n g to companies of h i g h c r e d i t . r a t i n g r e g a r d l e s s of whether l o c a l t e n a n t s o r t e n a n t s o f l o w e r c r e d i t would p r o v i d e a b e t t e r s h o p p i n g a t -mosphere and a b e t t e r complement of s h o p p i n g a m e n i t i e s f o r 8 the customer." The end r e s u l t , a t l e a s t i n terms of the t e n a n t mix, i s a h i g h degree of sameness. The d i f f i c u l t y i n a p p l y i n g t h i s approach comes when a t t e m p t i n g t o d e l i n e a t e the boundary between d i f f e r e n t s i z e d c e n t e r s . F o r example, v e r y l i t t l e i s known as t o what a f f e c t s i z e has on convenience good p a t r o n a g e ; w i l l the b o u n d a r i e s be d i f f e r e n t f o r c e r t a i n good i n a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r t h a n i n a neighbourhood c e n t e r ? One must a l s o q u e s t i o n whether the degree of p e n e t r a t i o n w i l l be s i m i l a r . These are q u e s t i o n s w hich m e r i t f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h b e f o r e any r e l i a b l e c o n c l u s i o n s can be made. T h i s f i r m n o t e d t h a t once the t r a d e a r e a o f the p r o -posed s t o r e has been d e t e r m i n e d , the n e x t s t e p , i n o r d e r t o c a l c u l a t e the amount of t r a d e t h a t you c o u l d e x p e c t t o r e -c e i v e , would be t o determine the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a . Reasonably a c c u r a t e p o p u l a t i o n f i g u r e s can g e n e r a l l y be r e c e i v e d from .census m a t e r i a l or t h r o u g h the 73 m u n i c i p a l i t y . I f the o n l y d a t a a v a i l a b l e from t h e s e s o u r c e s i s out o f d a t e , h o u s e h o l d c o u n t s are g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e from l o c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s . A rough e s t i m a t e o f the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n can t h e n be d e r i v e d by m u l t i p l y i n g the t o t a l number of h o u s e h o l d s by 2.75 (average f a m i l y s i z e ) . A l t h o u g h a d m i t t e d l y t h i s i s o n l y a crude e s t i m a t e , i t i s o f t e n the o n l y p r a c t i c a l means a v a i l a b l e f o r between census y e a r s . Once a r e a s o n a b l e p o p u l a t i o n f i g u r e has been d e r i v e d , the n e x t s t e p i s t o e s t i m a t e the t o t a l p u r c h a s i n g power of the t r a d e a r e a . T h i s f i g u r e i s e a s i l y o b t a i n e d by m u l t i p l y -i n g the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n by the p e r c a p i t a income. The p e r c a p i t a income f o r an a r e a i s a l s o g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e i n the c e n s u s , but i f i t i s out o f d a t e , the f i g u r e - has t o be ad-j u s t e d . One o f the e a s i e s t ways o f d o i n g t h i s i s t o compare the c o s t of l i v i n g i n d e x a t the p r e s e n t time w i t h what i t was d u r i n g the y e a r of the l a s t c e nsus. T h i s comparison w i l l g i v e the a n a l y s t a r e a s o n a b l e i d e a as t o how much incomes have r i s e n over the l a s t y e a r s . When u s i n g such an approach one must be v e r y c a r e f u l s i n c e incomes seldom r i s e a t e x a c t l y the same r a t e as the c o s t of l i v i n g , thus s u b j e c t i v e judgment comes i n t o p l a y . I t i s g e n e r a l l y a d v i s a b l e t o keep the e s t i m a t e s on the c o n s e r v a t i v e s i d e because i t i s b e t t e r t o u n d e r p r e d -i c t s a l e s p o t e n t i a l t h a n t o o v e r p r e d i c t . Once the p e r c a p i t a income and t o t a l income f o r the a r e a has been c a l c u l a t e d , the n e x t s t e p i s t o determine how much money i s a v a i l a b l e f o r the v a r i o u s p r o d u c t c l a s s e s t h a t the 74 s u b j e c t c e n t e r i s e x p e c t e d to o f f e r . The census has q u i t e a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n on the p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l income t h a t the average f a m i l y spends on v a r i o u s types o f goods ( a v a i l -a b l e f o r d i f f e r e n t income groups) so by r e l a t i n g t h i s bud-g e t f i g u r e t o the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , t h e t o t a l p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s f o r each s t o r e can be d e t e r m i n e d , (see t a b l e s 3-1 and 3.2). A l t h o u g h t h i s p r o c e d u r e d e t e r m i n e s the t o t a l a v a i l a b l e d o l l a r s f o r the t y p e s of goods o f f e r e d by a c e n t e r , i t does n o t i n d i c a t e how much of t h i s money the c e n t e r i s g o i n g t o a t t r a c t , s i n c e a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r r a r e l y r e c e i v e s a l l o f the t r a d e a v a i l a b l e w i t h i n i t s t r a d e a r e a . The amount of t r a d e :>" from w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a l o s t t o o t h e r c e n t e r s i s known as l e a k a g e o r o u t f l o w . The l e v e l of o u t f l o w can o n l y be sub-j e c t i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d and i s the r e s u l t o f a v a r i e t y o f f a c -t o r s ; w i t h the p r i m a r y ones b e i n g the amount and q u a l i t y o f the c o m p e t i t i v e f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a , and the degree of a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o these o t h e r o u t l e t s . P a r t i a l l y o f f s e t t i n g t h i s o u t f l o w o f s a l e s i s i n f l o w s a l e s , which come from t o u r i s t s and o t h e r i n c i d e n t a l customers. Once the t o t a l a v a i l a b l e s a l e s p e r p r o d u c t c l a s s has been a d j u s t e d (known as y o u r f a i r s h a re d o l l a r f i g u r e ) t h i s f i g u r e can t h e n be d i v i d e d by the amount of s a l e s p e r square f o o t r e q u i r e d t o s u p p o r t a s t o r e o f t h i s g i v e n t y p e . The amount of s a l e s needed p e r square f o o t i s a f i g u r e based on i n d u s t r i a l a v e r a g e s , r e n t s , and p a s t e x p e r i e n c e . I t s h o u l d now be c l e a r as t o whether the s t o r e can be s u p p o r t e d by the 75 Table 3.1 COMPARISON OF FAMILY BUDGETS IN  FOUR MAJOR WEST COAST STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS T o t a l Budget $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $16,204 10% 5% 9% 11% 1< 24% $15,989 "~~10% -2#-5% - 7% 13% 19% 22% $17,200 10% S e a t t l e / San E v e r e t t Diego 5% 7% 13% 20% 22% $16,016 San 10% 7% 13% 18% 23% Other P e r s o n a l c a r e S o c i a l s e c u r i t y M e d i c a l c a r e House f u r n i s h i n g s C l o t h i n g T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P e r s o n a l Income Taxes H o u s i n g Food 5 Los A n g e l e s / g g ^ c i g c o / Long Beach (Source: I n t e r v i e w s ) 76 TABLE 3.2 RETAIL EXPENDITURE RELATIONSHIPS - 1971 PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ($000's) $ Per Percentage Category $000's Capita 1971  CONVENIENCE Food $ 974,758 $ 446 26.6% Drug 95,203 44 • 2.6% Personal Service 67,897 31 1.9% Other 268,696 123 7.3% TOTAL CONVENIENCE $1,406,554 $ 644 38.4% DSTM General merchandise $ 629,835 $ 288 17.2$ Apparel & accessories 188,655 85 5.1% Hardware & home furnishings 193,042 88 5.3% Auto 1,147 1 0.0% Other 244,943 103 6.1% TOTAL DSTM $1,234,622 $ 565 33.7% AUTOMOTIVE $ 985,362 $ 541 26.9% OTHER $ 38,266 $ 18 1.0% TOTAL RETAIL $3,664,803 $1,768 100.0% NOTE: DSTM (Department Store Type Merchandise) includes the following categories: general merchandise, apparel hardware, and home furnishings, auto, other r e t a i l . (Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1971 Census.) 77 market a r e a , and how b i g the s t o r e can, or s h o u l d be. The s i z e of the a c t u a l s h o p p i n g c e n t e r t h a t can be s u p p o r t e d i s p r i m a r i l y a f u n c t i o n o f what t y p e , and how many i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s the market a r e a can m a i n t a i n . Of c o u r s e , the amount o f l a n d t h a t can be o b t a i n e d i s a l s o a f a c t o r c o n t r o l l i n g the s i z e of the c e n t e r . The main d i f f i c u l t y w i t h the use o f t h i s approach a r i s e s when d e t e r m i n i n g the l e v e l s o f o u t f l o w and i n f l o w . T h i s i s the key t o the whole approach s i n c e a l l o t h e r s t e p s s i m p l y determine the t o t a l p o t e n t i a l s a l e s , a v a i l a b l e w i t h i n a d e f i n e d g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n . A l t h o u g h the c a l c u l a t i o n o f the t o t a l p o t e n t i a l s a l e s w i t h i n an a r e a r e s t s on the a s s u m p t i o n t h a t the p e r c e n t a g e of t o t a l income sp e n t on v a r i o u s p r o d u c t c l a s s e s can be d e t e r m i n e d f a i r l y a c c u r a t e l y , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t the f i g u r e s a v a i l a b l e from the census are a c c u r a t e enough to n o t pose any major p r o b l e m s . Thus the l e v e l o f o u t f l o w and i n f l o w u sed u l t i m a t e l y d etermines the s a l e s l e v e l o f the s t o r e or c e n t e r i n q u e s t i o n . C l e a r l y , the f i g u r e s a r r i v e d a t are h i g h l y s u b j e c t i v e but t h e i r a c c u r a c y i s v e r y i m p o r t -ant because a one or two p e r c e n t e r r o r can g r e a t l y change the f i n a l p i c t u r e . E x p e r i e n c e and e n t r e p r e n u r i a l s k i l l a re e s s -e n t i a l i n such s i t u a t i o n s . ( i i i ) Case s t u d y t h r e e . Yet a n o t h e r approach f o r d e l i n e a t i n g the b o u n d a r i e s of a t r a d e a r e a c e n t e r s on t h r e e main c o n s i d e r a t i o n s : l ) the r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n o f the c o m p e t i t i o n ; 2) the type of compe-t i t i o n ( r e g i o n a l , community o r neighbourhood s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s ) 78 and; 3) "the d r i v i n g time and d i s t a n c e s separating"'.;the p r o -posed sh o p p i n g c e n t e r from i t s c o m p e t i t i o n . A g e n e r a l r u l e p e r t a i n i n g t o the d r i v i n g t i m e / d i s t a n c e f a c t o r , and the type o f c o m p e t i t i o n c o n s i d e r a t i o n ( w i t h r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n i n t h i s case b e i n g the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r ) has been deve l o p e d through y e a r s of s t u d y , and i s as f o l l o w s : consumers w i l l t r a v e l ; 1) Up t o 10 minutes o r two m i l e s t o shop a t ;a n e i g h b o u r -hood c e n t e r , 2) Up to 15-20 minutes or 5-10 m i l e s to shop a t a comm-u n i t y c e n t e r . 3) Up t o 30 minutes o r 15 m i l e s t o shop a t a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t the p r e c e e d i n g r u l e s are a p p l i -c a b l e o n l y i n b u i l t up u r b a n a r e a s . C a u t i o n s h o u l d be t a k e n when u s i n g these k i n d s o f r u l e s s i n c e v e r y l i t t l e work has been done c o n c e r n i n g the e f f e c t o f d r i v i n g t i m e s on consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . I n e s s e n c e , t h e r e i s v e r y l i t t l e t h e o r e t -i c a l c o n t e n t i n such r u l e s , and t h e r e i s no e x p l a n a t i o n as t o why o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s o c c u r as t h e y do, so d e v i a t i o n s from t h i s r u l e can happen w i t h o u t the s l i g h t e s t e x p e c t a t i o n . T h i s , o f c o u r s e , c o u l d have d i s a s t e r o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s . F u r t h e r m o r e , the s e g e n e r a l r u l e s assume t h a t a l l c e n t e r s o f a s i m i l a r type ( i e r e g i o n a l c e n t e r s ) have n o n s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n terms o f such t h i n g s as d e s i g n , i n t e r n a l s t r u c t u r e , image, a c c e s s , t e n a n t mix, consumer c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , e t c . The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s h o u l d s e r v e t o i l l u s t r a t e r o u g h l y what these g e n e r a l r u l e s c o n s i s t o f . A l t h o u g h supermarkets 79 are the focus of i n t e r e s t i n t h i s example, and the r e s u l t s w i l l vary depending upon the p a r t i c u l a r competitive a l i g n -ment, the general idea should be evident. TABLE 3-3 LOCATION TYPE AND SUPERMARKET SALES DISTRIBUTION Primary trade % of t o t a l area s i z e s a l e s 0-1 Type of l o c a t i o n ( R a d i a l dimensions) mile area Neighbourhood f r e e s t a n d i n g 1/2 - 3/4 mile 65--70% C.B.D. 1/2 - 3/4 " 70--75% Neighbourhood business d i s t r i c t 3/4 - 1 60- -65% Neighbourhood shopping center 3 A - 1 60. -65% Secondary business d i s t r i c t 1 1 1/4" 60- -65% Highway business s t r i n g 1 1 1/4" 55--60% Highway f r e e s t a n d i n g 1 2 40--45% Edge of town 1 1/2- 2 50- -55% Community shopping center 1 1/2- 2 50--55% Discount department store 1 1/2- 2 45--50% Supermarket center. 1 1/2- 2 40--45% Regional shopping center 1 1/2- 2 1/2" 35--40% (Source: Kane (1966) p 92) I t i s f e l t that these r u l e s are e s p e c i a l l y a p p l i c a b l e i n the case of r e g i o n a l c e n t e r s . I t i s g e n e r a l l y b e l i e v e d that a r e g i o n a l center has no s u b s t a n t i a l competition other than another r e g i o n a l center and the business d i s t r i c t , and these shopping areas are u s u a l l y spaced f a r enough apart to negate most of the competitive impact. Thus, the w i l l i n g -ness of the consumers to t r a v e l plays a p a r t i c u l a r i l y im-portant r o l e . For the smaller c e n t e r s , on the other hand, with t h e i r h i g h l y overlapping boundaries, the proximate 80 l o c a t i o n o f the c o m p e t i t i o n i n most cases p l a c e s l i m i t a -t i o n s on the w i l l i n g n e s s t o t r a v e l c r i t e r i a s i n c e t h e r e i s o f t e n an a l t e r n a t i v e c e n t e r w i t h i n a c l o s e r d i s t a n c e t h a n the consumer's d i s t a n c e t h r e s h o l d . I n es s e n c e , o t h e r f a c t o r s assume a s t r o n g e r r o l e i n the consumer's d e c i s i o n c o n c e r n i n g which c e n t e r t o p a t r o n i z e . I n g e n e r a l , i t can he s a i d t h a t the c l o s e r the s p a c i n g o f the network o f cen-t e r s , the more f l a w e d the r u l e s become s i n c e v e r y l i t t l e i s known about consumer p r e f e r e n c e p a t t e r n s , and d i s t a n c e i s no t as major a f a c t o r as i t would be i f the s p a c i n g was g r e a t e r . I t i s a l s o f e l t t h a t when d e l i n e a t i n g the b o u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d e a r e a , i t i s e s s e n t i a l t o take i n t o c o n s i d e r a -t i o n p h y s i c a l and man-made b a r r i e r s ( i e b o r d e r s , mountains, b r i d g e s , e t c . ) s i n c e t h e y can s e v e r e l y c u r t a i l o r ex t e n d the b o u n d a r i e s i n a g i v e n d i r e c t i o n . The n e x t s t e p i n v o l v e s mapping out the c o m p e t i t i v e f a c i -l i t i e s s u r r o u n d i n g the proposed s i t e , and t h e n d r a w i n g the bo u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d e a r e a i n terms o f the p r e v i o u s l y men-t i o n e d c r i t e r i a . E x p e r i e n c e p l a y s a b i g r o l e i n ' the f i n a l p r o c e d u r e s i n c e i t i n v o l v e s a f a i r l y h i g h degree o f i n t u i t i v e judgment. When dr a w i n g the b o u n d a r i e s the a n a l y s t can e i t h e r l e a v e the system open ( o v e r l a p p i n g b o u n d a r i e s ) o r c l o s e i t ( d e t e r m i n i s t i c b o u n d a r i e s ) . To c l o s e the system the co m p e t i -t i o n i s s i m p l y g i v e n a p o r t i o n ( u s u a l l y h a l f ) o f the o v e r l a p zone. T h i s f i r m ' s method o f e s t i m a t i n g the p o t e n t i a l s a l e s 81 volume f o r the p r oposed c e n t e r was "by f a r the prominant method espoused i n the numerous i n t e r v i e w s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e are a number of s i m i l a r i t i e s w i t h some o f the p r e c e e d i n g p r o c e d u r e s , t h e r e are a l s o some d i s t i n c t d i f f e r e n c e s . The method i s based on r e s i d u a l a n a l y s i s combined w i t h the mar-k e t share approach. Under the r e s i d u a l method o f c a l c u l a t -i n g market p o t e n t i a l , o n l y t h a t p o r t i o n of the t o t a l s a l e s p o t e n t i a l t h a t i s n o t b e i n g a d e q u a t e l y s e r v e d by the ex-i s t i n g s t o r e s i s a n a l y z e d . Thus, the f u l l and c o n t i n u i n g e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f e x i s t i n g s t o r e s i s r e c o g n i z e d . B a s i c a l l y , the r e s i d u a l approach g i v e s a f a i r l y good i n d i c a t i o n as to whether the market a r e a c a n c s u p p o r t a new s t o r e , and thus whether t h e r e i s a chance of a new o u t l e t o b t a i n i n g normal s a l e s volumes. F o r example, i f the a n a l y s i s shows t h a t the market a r e a can o n l y s u p p o r t a n o t h e r 20,000 square f e e t o f f l o o r space f o r a g i v e n s t o r e t y p e , i t would make no sense whatsoever t o b u i l d a 120,000 square f o o t s t o r e . Chances are t h a t i t would never o b t a i n the r e q u i r e d s a l e s l e v e l , and i f i t d i d , i t would do so o n l y by d e s t r o y i n g the p r o f i t -a b i l i t y o f some e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s . Businessmen w i l l r a r e -l y b u i l d when d o i n g so might be f i n a n c i a l l y r u i n o u s to a n o t h e r b u s i n e s s . I t must always be k e p t i n mind t h a t " . . . a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r cannot g e n e r a t e or create- new b u y i n g power; i t can o n l y a t t r a c t cutomers from e x i s t i n g b u s i n e s s e s , w h i c h may be a b s o l u t e , or c a p t u r e the i n c r e a s e i n p u r c h a s i n g power t h a t a c c r u e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n growth. I t can cause a r e d i s t r i b u -t i o n o f b u s i n e s s , but i t cannot c r e a t e new customers." ^ Thus, 82 the d e v e l o p e r must p l a y c l o s e a t t e n t i o n t o the impact t h a t a new c e n t e r w i l l have on the e x i s t i n g r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s i n o r d e r t o ensure t h a t t h e y can c o n t i n u e t o operat e w i t h r e a s o n -a b l e p r o f i t a b i l i t y . U s i n g the r e s i d u a l approach the a n a l y s t s i m p l y d e t e r -mines the t o t a l p u r c h a s i n g power o f the t r a d e a r e a f o r each g i v e n s t o r e type ( u s i n g the approach d i s c u s s e d i n the p r o -c e e d i n g s e c t i o n ) , and th e n d i v i d e s t h i s f i g u r e by the r e -q u i r e d s a l e s p e r square f o o t . The r e s u l t w i l l be the t o t a l f l o o r space t h a t the market a r e a can s u p p o r t a t p r o f i t a b l e l e v e l s . By th e n s u b t r a c t i n g the e x i s t i n g f l o o r space i n the market a r e a devoted to the p a r t i c u l a r p r o d u c t t y p e , the r e s i -d u a l a l l o w s him t o determine the s i z e o f the s t o r e t h a t can be s u p p o r t e d by the p r e s e n t b u s i n e s s p o t e n t i a l . A l t h o u g h b a s i n g the a n a l y s i s around t h e t t o t a l square f e e t of s e l l i n g a r e a (GLA) i s the most common approach, i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h i s d i s g u i s e s too many r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s . F o r example, i t t e l l s n o t h i n g about the p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f each i n d i v i d u a l c o m p e t i t i v e u n i t because the approach assumes e q u a l s a l e s p e r square f o o t i n each o f the s t o r e s . I t would be much b e t t e r i f i n s t e a d o f u s i n g t o t a l f l o o r space d a t a , r e a s o n a b l y a c c u r a t e s a l e s f i g u r e s f o r each o f the e x i s t i n g c o m p e t i t i v e o u t l e t s were a v a i l a b l e . A l t h o u g h g e t t i n g e x a c t s a l e s f i g u r e s f o r each o f the c o m p e t i t i v e s t o r e s or c e n t e r s i n the market a r e a would be n e x t to i m p o s s i b l e , t h e r e are a number o f ways through which e s t i m a t i o n s can be made, some o f which a r e : 83 1) The number o f p e r s o n s p e r r e t a i l e s t a b l i s h m e n t compared w i t h n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e s . 2) A v a i l a b l e r e t a i l e x p e n d i t u r e s p e r r e t a i l e s t a b l i s h -ment i s c a l c u l a t e d and compared w i t h n a t i o n a l or r e g i o n a l a v e r a g e s . The main problem w i t h t h i s approach i s t h a t no a l l o w a n c e s are made f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n s t o r e s i z e , and average p u r c h a s i n g power d i s g u i s e s too many r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s . 3) The number o f persons p e r s t o r e f r o n t f o o t a g e com-p a r e d w i t h n a t i o n a l or r e g i o n a l a v e r a g e s . The main problem w i t h t h i s method i s t h a t i t does n o t account f o r m u l t i -s t o r i e d b u i l d i n g s and s t o r e f r o n t a g e w i t h o u t depth i s n o t a t r u e a r e a i n d e x . 4) The r a t i o o f s t o r e v a c a n c i e s to t o t a l s t o r e s . 5) S a l e s p e r square f o o t o f s e l l i n g a r e a (GLA) compared w i t h n a t i o n a l or r e g i o n a l a v e r a g e s . T h i s i s p r o b a b l y the b e s t approach s i n c e i t measures p r o d u c t i v i t y and e f f i c i e n c y o f use of s p ace. There are a l s o a number o f problems a s s o c -i a t e d w i t h the use o f t h i s a p proach. F o r example, d i f f e r e n t companies, even though t h e y s e l l the same merchandise w i l l devote d i f f e r e n t p e r c e n t a g e s of the t o t a l a r e a to s e l l i n g a r e a . A n o t h e r problem i s t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s and changes i n the merchandise mix r e q u i r e a w e i g h t i n g o f measurement s t a n d a r d s . Q u a l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s between s t o r e s p r e s e n t s a s i m i l a r p r o b -lem. F u r t h e r m o r e , t h i s method f a i l s t o a c c o u n t f o r d i f f e r -ences i n m e r c h a n d i s i n g methods. N e v e r t h e l e s s , d e s p i t e these problems, as w e l l as a number of o t h e r s n o t d i r e c t l y r e f e r r e d t o , use o f t h i s method has had s a t i s f a c t o r y r e s u l t s . To o p e r a -8 4 t i o n a l i z e t h i s approach, s i m p l y sum the s a l e s o f each o f the e x i s t i n g s t o r e s and i n t u r n s u b t r a c t t h i s t o t a l from the t o t a l s a l e s p o t e n t i a l o f an a r e a , the r e s i d u a l shows how much i s n o t b e i n g s e r v e d by the e x i s t i n g s t o r e s , thus e n a b l i n g the merchant t o determine the p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f h i s v e n t u r e . P r o j e c t i o n s o f s a l e s f o r f u t u r e y e a r s are a l s o made i n o r d e r t o determine the p o t e n t i a l s u p p o r t a b l e f l o o r space f o r g i v e n y e a r s . I n o r d e r t o b e t t e r s e r v e the market, and be-cause of the chances o f y e t a n o t h e r s t o r e e n t e r i n g the a r e a , the wise merchant w i l l g e n e r a l l y b u i l d a s l i g h t l y l a r g e r s t o r e than i s r e q u i r e d d u r i n g the base y e a r . I n e s s e n c e , the r e s i d u a l approach c o n s i d e r s o n l y the p o r t i o n o f t o t a l s a l e s p o t e n t i a l n o t a d e q u a t e l y s e r v e d by e x i s t i n g s t o r e s . However, the r e s i d u a l approach does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y m i n i m i z e the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r a s p e c i f i c r e t a i l e r because f a c t o r s o t h e r t h a n those i n c l u d e d i n the approach must be c o n s i d e r e d i n the o v e r a l l s t r a t e g y o f the r e t a i l e r ( i e image and r e p u t a t i o n o f the s t o r e e t c . ) . I t s h o u l d a l s o be p o i n t e d out t h a t the r e s i d u a l market approach can be somewhat c o n s e r v a t i v e as i t assumes t h a t the p r o d u c t i v i t y o f e x i s t i n g , c o m p e t i t i v e f a c i l i t i e s w i l l r e m a i n c o n s t a n t even a f t e r the new f a c i l i t i e s e n t e r the market. There-f o r e , i t i s n o t a t a l l uncommon t o add t o the r e s i d u a l a c e r -t a i n p e r c e n t a g e , say 10%, o f the t o t a l b u s i n e s s p o t e n t i a l s i n c e i t i s u n r e a l i s t i c t o assume t h a t a new s t o r e o r c e n t e r w i l l n o t c a p t u r e any o f the e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t y ' s b u s i n e s s . The 85 amount added i s g e n e r a l l y s u b j e c t i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d and de-pends on the s t o r e ' s o v e r a l l s t r e n g t h i n r e l a t i o n t o i t s c o m p e t i t i o n . On the o t h e r hand, t h i s approach can a l s o be q u i t e dangerous s i n c e t h e r e i s no guarantee t h a t the c e n t e r w i l l t ake a l l o f the untapped b u s i n e s s . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y the r e a s o n why t h i s approach i s g e n e r a l l y c o nducted i n con-j u n c t i o n w i t h the market s h a r e approach. The market share approach i s l a r g e l y based on the share o f the market t h a t a s t o r e g e n e r a l l y g e t s i n o t h e r analogous s i t u a t i o n s . Once a g a i n , the f i r s t p r o c e d u r e i s to conduct a popu-l a t i o n c o u n t . T h i s p a r t i c u l a r f i r m f e e l s t h a t one o f the b e s t means of c o n d u c t i n g such a count i s t o draw c o n c e n t r i c r i n g s around the c e n t e r a t . o n e - h a l f or o n e - q u a r t e r m i l e i n t e r -v a l s . They n o t e d t h e r e are a number o f computer companies w i t h u p - t o - d a t e s t a t i s t i c s t h a t w i l l p e r f o r m t h i s t a s k a t a r e a s o n a b l e c o s t . Once t h i s count has been c o n d u c t e d , t h e r e a re a number o f r u l e s o f thumb t h a t can be used as a p r e l i m i n a r y a n a l y s i s t h a t c a n h e l p t o determine whether f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s mer-i t e d . F o r example, a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r g e n e r a l l y needs a t r a d e a r e a p o p u l a t i o n o f . a r o u n d 50,000 p e o p l e . Thus i f the a r e a has a . p o p u l a t i o n w e l l below t h i s f i g u r e , t h e r e i s l i k e l y no j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r f u r t h e r , more i n - d e p t h r e s e a r c h . I t must be s t r e s s e d though, that''.this i s o n l y a crude r u l e o f thumb and s h o u l d n e v e r be r e l i e d upon w i t h o u t f u r t h e r r r e s e a r c h . The economic c o n d i t i o n s ( i e p e r c a p i t a income, s t o r e r e n t s 86 e t c . ) are so d i f f e r e n t between a r e a s t h a t use o f such r u l e s , i n t h e m s e l v e s , c o u l d be v e r y dangerous. N e v e r t h e l e s s , i f f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s deemed w o r t h w h i l e , the t o t a l e x p e n d i -t u r e s r e q u i r e d t o s u p p o r t each s t o r e a t a g i v e n s i z e (based on the s a l e s p e r square f o o t r e q u i r e d ) i s c a l c u l a t e d . The f o l l o w i n g example s h o u l d s e r v e as an i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h i s p r o c e s s . F o r one department s t o r e o f say, 100,000 square f e e t , a t a r e q u i r e d 110 d o l l a r s p e r square f o o t , t he o u t l e t must c a p t u r e 11 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n t r a d e ( 100,000x110=11 ,000,000) t o j u s t i f y i t s e x i s t e n c e . To a r r i v e a t the p o p u l a t i o n r e -q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e 11 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n s a l e s , the f o l l o w -i n g p r o c e d u r e i s used: i f the r e t a i l e x p e n d i t u r e p e r c a p i t a a t department s t o r e s i s 17% of the t o t a l d i s p o s a b l e income, and the t o t a l p e r c a p i t a income i s 8,000 d o l l a r s , t h e n the amount p e r c a p i t a a v a i l a b l e f o r department s t o r e s i s 1,360 d o l l a r s (17% o f 8 ,000) . The a n a l y s t must t h e n determine the exp e c t e d market share s i n c e i t has such a p r o f o u n d e f f e c t on thernumber o f pe o p l e r e q u i r e d . F o r example: 8,038 p e o p l e s p e n d i n g $1,360 (100% market s h a r e ) = $11 ,000,000 16,076 p e o p l e s p e n d i n g $680 (50% market s h a r e ) = $11,000,000 3 2 , l 5 2 v p e o p l e s p e n d i n g $3^0 (25% market s h a r e ) = $11 ,000,000 To determine the market share of the s t o r e i n q u e s t i o n , you g e n e r a l l y r e l y on i n d u s t r y s t a n d a r d s . F o r example, one p a r t i c u l a r department s t o r e g e n e r a l l y commands a 30% market share i n a l l of i t s s t o r e s . U s i n g t h i s f i g u r e , i t i s p o s s i b l e 87 t o determine how much of the t o t a l s a l e s volume t h a t the s t o r e can e x p e c t t o r e c e i v e by s i m p l y r e l a t i n g t h i s f i g u r e t o the t o t a l a v a i l a b l e e x p e n d i t u r e w i t h i n the t r a d e a r e a , thus d e t e r m i n i n g the p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f the v e n t u r e . The s i z e o f s t o r e t h a t can be s u p p o r t e d by the market a r e a can then be c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the e x p e c t e d s a l e s volume by the r e q u i r e d s a l e s per square f o o t f i g u r e , (see t a b l e 3•4) The use of the two methods - r e s i d u a l a n a l y s i s and the market share approach - a l l o w s the d e v e l o p e r or s t o r e mer-chant to double check h i s e s t i m a t i o n s . I f the two approaches produce s i m i l a r c o n c l u s i o n s , he can be a l i t t l e more c o n f i d e n t i n h i s d e c i s i o n making. I f , on the o t h e r hand, a d i s c r e p a n c y r e s u l t s , the n e c e s s a r y f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h t h a t must be conducted b e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g w i t h the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s c o u l d save him from making a d i s a s t e r o u s - - d e c i s i o n . Over the y e a r s , t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f these two approaches has had c o n s i s t a n t l y s u c c e s s f u l r e s u l t s . (C) C o n c l u s i o n . On the whole, the main problem w i t h a l l of the approaches d e a l t w i t h here i s t h a t the key t o each method i s a l m o s t a l -ways c o m p l e t e l y r e l i a n t on a s u b j e c t i v e judgment o f one s o r t or a n o t h e r ( i e e x p e c t e d market s h a r e , l e v e l of o u t f l o w , e t c . ) . Thus the f i n a l d e c i s i o n r e s t s h e a v i l y on the d e c i s i o n maker's a b i l i t y to i n t e r p r e t the s i t u a t i o n c r r e c t l y . Any e r r o r i n h i s judgment c o u l d have d i s a s t e r o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s . Nor do any o f the approaches c o n s i d e r a l l o f the v a r i a b l e s 88 Table 3.4 FOODSTORE POTENTIAL  MARKET SHARE APPROACH ($000's) TRADE AREA 1981 1986 1991 1996 Primary- 4,873 5,797 6 ,885 8 ,158 Market Share 50% 47% 44% - 4 l % P o t e n t i a l 2,436 2,724 3 ,029 3,345 Secondary 3.630 4 ,114 4 ,653 5,251 Market Share 30% 28% 26% 24% P o t e n t i a l 1 ,089 1,151 1,209 1,260 T o t a l P o t e n t i a l 3.525 3,875 4 ,238 4,605 S a l e s P e r Sq. F t . 240 245 250 255 F l o o r Space R e q i r e d ( s q . f t . ) 14,688 15 ,816 16,952 18 ,058 ( S o u r c e : i n t e r v i e w s . ) 89 known t o be s a l i e n t ; t h e y t e n d t o v i e w s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s or s t o r e s s o l e l y i n o b j e c t i v e terms, f a i l i n g t o c o n s i d e r sub-j e c t i v e measures such as image e t c . They s i m p l y make c e r -t a i n assumptions t o c o n t r o l the e f f e c t o f the v a r i o u s non-q u a n t i f i a b l e f a c t o r s . I n many ways though, t h i s v i e w p o i n t i s j u s t i f i a b l e s i n c e t h e y are l i m i t e d by the f a c t t h a t the sh o p p i n g c e n t e r has n o t y e t been b u i l t . F o r example, s i n c e the proposed t e n a n t mix used d u r i n g the f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y w i l l n o t n e c e s s a r i l y be i d e n t i c a l t o the a c t u a l t e n a n t mix, use o f o t h e r t h a n o b j e c t i v e measures would be q u i t e i n v a l i d . How c o u l d one p r e d e t e r m i n e the image t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r s t o r e might have, e s p e c i a l l y i f i t i s n o t a c h a i n s t o r e o r i f t h a t c h a i n was n o t a l r e a d y r e p r e s e n t e d i n the r e g i o n ? F u r t h e r m o r e , the c e n t e r i s u s u a l l y n o t completed f o r 2 - 8 y e a r s a f t e r the time o f the f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y (depending upon the s i z e of the c e n t e r i n q u e s t i o n ) and n o t to i t s f u l l p o t e n t i a l f o r an o t h e r t h r e e t o f i v e y e a r s . C o n d i t i o n s can be q u i t e a b i t d i f f e r e n t from what t h e y were a t the time o f the s t u d y . I t i s p r i m a r i l y f o r r e a s o n s such as. the s e t h a t most o f those i n t e r v i e w e d f e l t t h a t the e s t i m a t i o n s p r e s e n t e d i n the f e a s i -b i l i t y s t u d y were h i g h l y t h e o r e t i c a l and were meant to be more of an a i d i n d e c i s i o n making, r a t h e r t h a n an a c t u a l p r e d i c -t i o n . There are s i m p l y too many f a c t o r s t h a t cannot be a c c -ounted f o r t h a t can have a g r e a t impact ( i e f u t u r e c o n d i t i o n s , m a n a g e r i a l s k i l l s e t c . ) . I n many ways t h i s r e a l i t y f o r c e s one' t o r e l a x many o f the c r i t i c i s m s t h a t c o u l d be l a u n c h e d 90 a g a i n s t the methods p r a c t i c e d . The importance o f t h i s v i e w p o i n t s i m p l y cannot he s t r e s s e d enough. C l e a r l y , t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e i s the o p p o s i t e t o what i s found i n the academic l i t e r a t u r e whereby t h e y g e n e r a l l y s t u d y an e x i s t i n g s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , aim f o r e x a c t n e s s i n the p r e d i c t i o n s and t h e n assume t h a t t h i s approach i s d i r e c t l y a p p l i c a b l e f o r a proposed s h o p p i n g c e n t e r w i t h o u t e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t i n g the v a l i d i t y of t h i s a s s u m p t i o n . I n many ways t h i s seems u n r e a l i s t i c g i v e n the dynamic n a t u r e o f the i n d u s t r y . A l t h o u g h i n some ways the p r a c t i t i o n e r s have a l r e a d y p r o v e n the v a l i d i t y of t h e i r approaches through the s a t i s -f a c t o r y s u c c e s s r a t e s o f t h e i r s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s , i t i s f e l t t h a t the r e a l t e s t i s y e t to come.' I n the p a s t you saw a l -most any s h o p p i n g c e n t e r w i t h adequate s i z e and p a r k i n g s u c c -e e d i n g , but the i n c r e a s i n g l y s a t u r a t e d markets are g o i n g t o c a l l f o r much more a c c u r a c y i n the methods employed i f t h i s s u c c e s s r a t e i s to be m a i n t a i n e d . I t i s f e l t t h a t such im-provements can o n l y be made through"more e m p i r i c a l t e s t i n g and i n g e n e r a l , through improvements upon the methods used. 91 FOOTNOTES.. 1. B e r n a r d J . Kane J r . A S y s t e m a t i c Guide To Super- market L o c a t i o n A n a l y s i s . New Y o r k : F a i r c h i l d P u b l i c a -t i o n s , I n c . , 1966. p 164. 2. J . Ross McKeever. Shopping C e n t e r Z o n i n g . Urban Land I n s t i t i u t e T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n 6 9 . 1973. P 15 . 3 . R i c h a r d C. N e l s o n . The S e l e c t i o n Of R e t a i l L o c a - t i o n s . New York: F.W. Dodge C o r p o r a t i o n , 1958. p 148. 4. Jac L. G o l d s t u c k e r , Danny N. B e l l e n g e r , Thomas J . S t a n l e y and Ruth O t t e . New Developments I n R e t a i l T r a d i n g  A r e a A n a l y s i s And S i t e S e l e c t i o n . R e s e a r c h Monograph, No. 78, 1978. p 19. 5• Kane. A S y s t e m a t i c Guide To Supermarket L o c a t i o n  A n a l y s i s . p 67. 6. - Frank E. H o r t o n . " L o c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s as d e t e r m i n -a n t s o f consumer a t t r a c t i o n s t o r e t a i l f i r m s . " A n n a l s Of  The American A s s o c i a t i o n Of Geographers. V o l . 58, 1958. P 787. 7. I b i d , p 789. 8. V i c t o r Gruen and L a r r y S m i t h . Shopping Towns  U.S.A.: The P l a n n i n g Of Shopping C e n t e r s . New Y o r k : R e i n -h o l d P u b l i s h i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , I960. p 6 0 . 9. McKeever. Shopping C e n t e r Z o n i n g , p 24. 10. W i l l i a m Applebaum and S a u l B. Cohen. "The dyna-mics o f s t o r e t r a d i n g a r e a s and market e q u i l i b r i u m . " A n n a l s  Of The A s s o c i a t i o n Of American Geographers. V o l . 51 . 1961. 92 CHAPTER 4 LOCATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS NOT  ACCOUNTED FOR IN MOST THEORETICAL APPROACHES (A) I n t r o d u c t i o n . The i n t e r v i e w s , i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n the p r e c e d i n g c h a p t e r s , a i d e d g r e a t l y i n i d e n t i f y i n g some o f the problems t h a t would be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f the t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l i n g approaches i n r e a l w o r l d s i t u a t i o n s . As w e l l , t h e y p o i n t e d t o a number of br o a d e r p r o b l e m s , r e s u l t i n g m a i n l y from the narrow p e r s p e c t i v e on the s u b j e c t t a k e n by the academics. The m o d e l i n g approaches f o r a n a l y s i n g the t r a d e a r e a s of r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s t e n d t o c o n s i d e r o n l y a s m a l l p o r t i o n o f the v a r i a b l e s c r i t i c a l i n d e t e r m i n i n g consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . A l t h o u g h the r e c e n t t r e n d has been t o add image v a r i a b l e s t o the t r a d i t i o n a l s i z e and d i s t a n c e v a r i a b l e s , a t t e m p t s i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n have produced l e s s t h a n s a t i s -f a c t o r y r e s u l t s . Even though the models t h a t do i n c o r p o r -a t e image r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s succeed i n c o v e r i n g a w i d e r dom-a i n o f f a c t o r s , t h e r e are s t i l l a m u l t i t u d e o f o t h e r c o n s i d -e r a t i o n s t h a t are n e g l e c t e d . One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the l a c k of a t t e n t i o n t h a t t h e s e f a c t o r s have r e c e i v e d i s t h a t t h e i r v e r y n a t u r e d e n i e s them o f q u a n t i f i c a t i o n . As a r e s u l t , c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the s e v a r i a b l e s would f o r c e the ana-l y s t i n t o the same p o s i t i o n he i s t r y i n g t o a v o i d ; s p e c i f i c -a l l y , making s u b j e c t i v e judgments. I f the a n a l y s t s u b j e c t -i v e l y a d j u s t s h i s models p r e d i c t i o n s i n o r d e r t o account f o r 93 t h e s e o t h e r f a c t o r s , i t f o r c e s one to q u e s t i o n the u t i l i t y o f u s i n g the model i n the f i r s t p l a c e , p a r t i c u l a r i l y c o n s i d e r i n g i t s f a i r l y demanding d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s . A s i d e from n e g l e c t i n g a number o f the v a r i a b l e s t h a t are s u s p e c t e d o f i n f l u e n c i n g consumers p u r c h a s i n g d e c i s i o n s , the t h e o r i s t s seem to have a l s o f a i l e d t o c o n s i d e r the s t r u c -t u r e o f the r e t a i l i n d u s t r y and the c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t the p r a c t i t i o n e r s must work w i t h i n . These are f a c t o r s t h a t a l -though t h e y do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y have a d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e on the l e v e l o f patronage t h a t a c e n t e r might r e c e i v e , c e r t a i n l y p l a y a s t r o n g r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g the a c t u a l l o c a t i o n chosen. I n e s s e n c e , the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i s n o t s o l e l y a f u n c t i o n o f the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f demand. I n many ways t h i s d i s r e g a r d i s a r e f l e c t i o n o f the academics i g n o r a n c e o f the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s . T h i s c h a p t e r r e v i e w s some o f the s a l i e n t f a c t o r s t h a t are o f t e n i g n o r e d by the academics i n g r e a t e r depth, which i n t u r n w i l l i n d i c a t e the need f o r a more w h o l i s t i c approach t o r e t a i l l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s . (B) A c c e s s i b i l i t y . I n a r e t a i l i n g framework, a c c e s s i b i l i t y i s one o f the most i m p o r t a n t l o c a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s , d e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t the b u l k of the academic l i t e r a t u r e f a i l s t o g i v e i t much d i r -e c t a t t e n t i o n ; o f t e n d e a l i n g w i t h i t s i m p l y i n terms o f t r a v e l t i m e s . I t seems t h a t the few s t u d i e s t h a t do c o n s i d e r t h i s c r i t e r i o n are g e n e r a l l y o f a f a i r l y p r a g m a t i c n a t u r e . N e l s o n s t a t e s t h a t f o r a s t o r e or s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , the 94 f a c t o r o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y may be o f prime i m p o r t a n c e , p o s s i b l y b e i n g more i m p o r t a n t than a l l of the income, f a m i l y composi-t i o n , o r s h o p p i n g h a b i t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the p e o p l e i n -v o l v e d . ^ Garner a l s o r e a l i z e d t h e i mportance o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y , as i s c l e a r from the f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t : The u t i l i t y t h a t i s added t o a s i t e o v e r and above the c a p i t a l and l a b o r a p p l i e d t o i t i s e s s e n t i a l l y t h a t added by i t s l o c a t i o n . I n a r e t a i l i n g frame-work l o c a t i o n i s viewed as the a c c e s s i b i l i t y o r c e n t r a l i t y a f f o r d e d by a p a r t i c u l a r s i t e to a p o r -t i o n o f the urban market. C e n t r a l i t y can be v i e w -ed a t two l e v e l s : A) the m a c r o - l e v e l , o r d i f f e r -ences i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y between a l t e r n a t e b u s i n e s s c e n t e r s , and B) the m i c r o - l e v e l , or d i f f e r e n c e s i n the advantage o f s i t e t o l o c a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f consumers w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f r e t a i l 2 n u c l e a t i o n s . E s s e n t i a l l y , the r e l a t i v e a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f a r e t a i l cen-t e r i s r e f l e c t e d i n i t s s p a t i a l d i s p o s i t i o n and i n the r o a d usage by p r i v a t e c a r s and p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t v e h i c l e s . A c c e s s i -b i l i t y i t s e l f i s dependent upon j o u r n e y t i m e s , r o a d c a p a c i t y and usage, c a r ownership and p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t s e r v i c e s , r o a d s u r f a c e c o n d i t i o n s , t r a f f i c f l o w s , v i s i b i l i t y , peaks and v a l l e y s o f t r a f f i c f l o w ( h o p e f u l l y peak t r a f f i c f l o w hours are n o t the same as the c e n t e r ' s peak h o u r s ) , s a t i s f a c t o r y l o c a t i o n f o r s i g n s , highway c a p a c i t y (which i n t u r n i s a f u n c t i o n o f the number and w i d t h of l a n e s , the number of heavy trucks,, the l e n g t h and s t e e p n e s s of g r a d e s , s i g h t d i s t a n c e f o r o v e r t a k i n g , t r a f f i c s i g n a l s , and p a r k e d c a r s ) the importance of each o f t h e s e f a c t o r s b e i n g dependent upon the type of c e n t e r . I t i s e s s e n t i a l f o r each of these t o be c o n s i d e r e d when a n a l y s i n g the 95 a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f a s i t e s i n c e d i s t a n c e a l o n e i s n o t a s a t i s -f a c t o r y measure o f where consumers w i l l shop. T h i s i s be-cause auto t r a v e l i n p a r t i c u l a r , i s r e l a t i v e l y i n e x p e n s i v e i n terms o f time or money, so a consumer w i l l be w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l f u r t h e r to a c e n t e r where the t r a f f i c c o n d i t i o n s are more f a v o r a b l e . The e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g f u e l p r i c e s i s as y e t v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e . I n s h o r t , when a n a l y z i n g the a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f the s i t e , the d e v e l p e r s h o u l d c o n s i d e r : a) The p o i n t s o f o r i g i n of the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r t r a f f i c . b) The r o u t e s customers are most l i k e l y t o t a k e . c) I n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g e x i s t i n g t r a f f i c l o a d s . d) C r i t i c a l t r a f f i c c o n d i t i o n s f o r peak h o u r s . e) Means through which to s o l v e any of the problems t h a t may have been i d e n t i f i e d . Of c o u r s e , t h e s e f a c t o r s must be a n a l y z e d i n l i g h t o f the s p e c i f i c r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r the p a r t i c u l a r c e n t e r type s i n c e e x p e r i e n c e has shown t h a t d i f f e r e n t t ypes o f c e n t e r s have d i f f e r e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s i n terms o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y . To be s p e c i f i c , neighbourhood c e n t e r s are l o c a t e d f o r a c c e s s from c o l l e c t o r s t r e e t s , whereas community c e n t e r s are l o c a t e d f o r a c c e s s from major t h o r o u g h f a r e s . R e g i o n a l c e n t e r s , on the o t h e r hand are g e n e r a l l y l o c a t e d where a s i t e i s e a s i l y a c c e s s -i b l e from i n t e r c h a n g e p o i n t s between e x p r e s s ways and f r e e w a y s . "The i d e a l s i t e f o r a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r i s r i n g e d by major t r a f -f i c r o u t e s which have a c c e s s p o i n t s and t r a f f i c c o n t r o l 96 d e v i s e s c a r e f u l l y d e s i g n e d t o d i s p e n s e t r a f f i c o v e r a major s t r e e t s ystem and t o h a n d l e t h e peak l o a d s g e n e r a t e d by such 3 c e n t e r s . " ^ The l i t e r a t u r e i n g e n e r a l , and the m a t h e m a t i c a l models i n p a r t i c u l a r f a i l t o r e a l i z e t h a t each c e n t e r has d i f f e r e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s i n terms of a c c e s s , by c o n s i d e r i n g o n l y t r a v e l t i m e s . A s i d e from the f a c t t h a t a c e n t e r must be easy t o r e a c h , i t must a l s o be easy t o e n t e r and l e a v e . Consumers more o f t e n t h a n not w i l l opt f o r the e a s i e s t a l t e r n a t i v e , so a s i t e t h a t does not f u l f i l t h i s r e q u i r e m e n t w i l l l o o s e a l o t o f p o t e n -t i a l b u s i n e s s t o c o m p e t i t i v e c e n t e r s . The consumer's c o g n i -t i v e p e r c e p t i o n of d i s t a n c e w i l l l i k e l y be maximized f o r the s i t e w i t h the p o o r e r l e v e l of a c c e s s , a l l o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l . A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r t h a t must be c o n s i d e r e d i n any s t u d y p e r t a i n i n g t o a c c e s s i b i l i t y , i s v i s i b i l i t y . A s i t e t h a t i s n ot v i s i b l e from s u r r o u n d i n g a r t e r i e s , n ot o n l y l o o s e s i t s b e s t form of a d v e r t i s i n g , but a l s o l o o s e s a s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f impulse t r a d e . I t i s g e n e r a l l y f e l t t h a t a c e n t e r has poor v i s i b i l i t y when i t i s n o t seen u n t i l l o c a l t r a f f i c speeds c a r r y the d r i v e r p a s t the p a r k i n g a r e a e n t r a n c e . Even though t r a f f i c f l o w a t t r a c t s r e t a i l b u s i n e s s , a s i t e t h a t f r o n t s on a highway h e a v i l y b u i l t up w i t h s t r i n g s of competing d i s t r a c -t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g s i g n s , has a d e c r e a s e d l e v e l of a c c e s s i b i l i t y . The f a i l u r e o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e t o a d e q u a t e l y c o n s i d e r most o f the p e r t i n e n t l o c a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a s t o r e or shopping 97 c e n t e r such as a c c e s s i b i l i t y , i s c l e a r l y a s e r i o u s f l a w . Re-t a i l p o t e n t i a l models, f o r example, do not account f o r such f a c t o r s and thus do h o t n e c e s s a r i l y p o r t r a y a t r u e r e p r e s e n -t a t i o n o f r e a l i t y . Any d i f f e r e n c e s i n the l e v e l o f a c c e s s i -b i l i t y between s i t e s would n o t be r e a l i z e d i n the model's c a l c u l a t i o n s ( u n l e s s these d i f f e r e n c e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e -f l e c t e d i n t r a v e l t i m e s ) but c o u l d g r e a t l y e f f e c t the s a l e s l e v e l s t h a t c o u l d be o b t a i n e d on t h e s e s i t e s . U n t i l such v a r i a b l e s are i n c o r p o r a t e d , the p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f the models must remai n s u s p e c t . (C) S i t e s p e c i f i c f a c t o r s . To t h i s p o i n t , the use o f the term " s i t e " has p r i m a r i l y had a l o c a t i o n a l c o n n o t a t i o n , but t h e r e are a number o f f a c -t o r s t h a t are s i t e s p e c i f i c t h a t must be g i v e n c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . The l i t e r a t u r e i s e x t r e m e l y weak when i t comes t o s i t e q u a l i t y a s p e c t s . I n most o f the models p r e s e n t e d e a r l i e r , i t appears t h a t s i t e q u a l i t y i s assumed t o be e q u a l . T h i s , o f c o u r s e , i s not a v a l i d assump-t i o n . The i n t e r n a t i o n a l C o u n c i l of Shopping C e n t e r s (I.C.S.C.) p r e s e n t s some key c o n s i d e r a t i o n s f o r a s s e s s i n g the q u a l i t y o f a s i t e , w hich are as f o l l o w s : ^ 1) The shape of a s i t e - The s i t e s h o u l d n o r m a l l y be o f a r e g u l a r shape, a l l i n one p i e c e , and u n d i v i d e d by highways or s t r e e t s ; 2) S i z e - Of c o u r s e the s i z e o f the s i t e s h o u l d be l a r g e enough t o a d e q u a t e l y house the b u i l d i n g and p a r k i n g . I n many c a s e s , where t h e r e i s a good p o s s i b i l i t y f o r growth i n an a r e a 98 t h e s i z e o f the s i t e s h o u l d a l s o a l l o w f o r e x p a n s i o n . T h i s r e s e r v e o f l a n d a l l o w s f o r a d d i t i o n a l p r o t e c t i o n f rom compe-t i t i o n s i n c e the p o s s i b i l i t y f o r e x p a n s i o n t o meet the grow-i n g needs o f the s u r r o u n d i n g p o p u l a t i o n might negate the p o t e n t i a l f o r a c o m p e t i t i v e o u t l e t c o n s i d e r i n g e n t e r i n g the market. However, i n t e r e s t r a t e s , t a x e s , and o t h e r c a r r y i n g c o s t s are p r o g r e s s i v e l y making t h i s p r a c t i c e u n e c o n o m i c a l . Thus the d e v e l o p e r must ensure t h a t the s i t e i s n o t unecono-m i c a l l y l a r g e . C l e a r l y the r i s i n g c o s t o f l a n d i s r e f l e c t e d i n t he i n c r e a s i n g use o f two and t h r e e s t o r i e d f a c i l i t i e s as w e l l as p a r k a d e s . As g e n e r a l r u l e - o f - t h u m b , you u s u a l l y need 40 , 0 0 0 square f e e t o f s i t e a r e a (about 1 a c r e ) f o r each 10,000 square f e e t o f b u i l d i n g (the r e m a i n i n g 30,000 square f e e t b e i n g de-v o t e d t o p a r k i n g , roadways e t c . T h i s p a r k i n g t o b u i l d i n g r a t i o i s o f t e n s e t as h i g h as s i x t o o n e ) . When d e t e r m i n i n g the p a r k i n g r a t i o , you must c o n s i d e r the f o l l o w i n g c o r r e c t i v e f a c t o r s : A) The amount o f f o o t t r a f f i c g e n e r a t e d from the immed-i a t e l y s u r r o u n d i n g a r e a s ; B) The amount o f shoppers t r a f f i c from p u b l i c t r a n s p o r -t a t i o n ; C) The s i z e of the c e n t e r , s i n c e the l a r g e r the number of s t o r e s and the l a r g e r the s t o r e s , the l e s s p a r k -i n g space needed i n r e l a t i o n t o the t o t a l r e n t a b l e a r e a ; D) The c h a r a c t e r o f the s t o r e s ; 99 E) The p r o j e c t e d o v e r a l l s a l e s volume p e r square f o o t ; F) Peak p e r i o d s and peak h o u r s . Once the s i z e of the c e n t e r has been e s t a b l i s h e d , and the b e s t p o s s i b l e p a r k i n g r a t i o d e t e r m i n e d , the s i z e o f the s i t e r e q u i r e d can e a s i l y be c a l c u l a t e d ; 3) Topography - G e n t l e s l o p i n g l a n d i s g e n e r a l l y p r e -f e r r e d a l t h o u g h g r e a t e r s l o p e s can be used t o the c e n t e r ' s advantage w i t h a s u i t a b l e a r c h i t e c t u r a l s t y l e . F o r example, a two s t o r y c e n t e r s h o u l d have a f a i r l y s t e e p s l o p e so t h a t on the one s i d e the customers must e n t e r on the second f l o o r , t hus a i d i n g i n making each f l o o r e q u a l l y a t t r a c t i v e ; 4) D r a i n a g e - The s i t e s h o u l d have s u f f i c i e n t d r a i n a g e c a p a c i t y so as not t o n e c e s s i t a t e any unwarranted expenses; 5) U t i l i t i e s - The w ater mains s h o u l d be of s u f f i c i e n t s i z e t o p r o v i d e adequate p r e s s u r e and f l o w , s a n i t a r y sewers must have the c a p a c i t y t o a c c e p t th e p r o j e c t e d e f f l u e n t , and s t o r m d r a i n a g e sewers must be of s u f f i c i e n t s i z e . The s i t e s h o u l d a l s o be c l o s e t o such f a c i l i t i e s i n o r d e r t o c u t down on the c o n n e c t i o n c o s t s ; 6) S u r r o u n d i n g s - The c e n t e r s h o u l d be compatable w i t h s u r r o u n d i n g a r e a s ; 7') Z o n i n g - F a v o r a b l e z o n i n g i s a n e c e s s i t y f o r any s i t e . No p r o j e c t i o n s of f u t u r e b u s i n e s s p o t e n t i a l can be made w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n the community's p o l i c y g o v e r n i n g p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y e t c . These f a c t o r s are of prime importance n o t o n l y i n t h a t t h e y can add t o the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s and f u n c t i o n a b i l i t y o f the 100 s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , hut a l s o ensure the l o n g e v i t y o f the p r o j e c t and c u t down on u n n e c e s s a r y c o s t s . L i k e the l o c a t i o n a l f a c -t o r s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , the s i t e q u a l i t y f a c t o r s are o f t e n o v e r l o o k e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e and i n the models. I t i s ob-v i o u s t h a t the above c o n s i d e r a t i o n s c a nnot be i g n o r e d s i n c e t h e y p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g the u l t i m a t e s u c c e s s o f the v e n t u r e as a whole. I t has been s t a t e d t h a t "...from a r e t a i l e r ' s p o i n t o f v i e w , the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f l a n d a t a r e a s o n a b l e p r i c e , p r o x i m i t y t o l i n e s of communi-c a t i o n to motorway a c c e s s p o i n t s i n the case o f a l a r g e r e -t a i l o p e r a t i o n , a v a i l a b i l i t y o f p a r k i n g s p a c e s , e t c . , a l l may be more i m p o r t a n t t h a n p h y s i c a l p r o x i m i t y to a r e t a i l 7 p o p u l a t i o n . " ' (D) Tenant mix. A l t h o u g h c h o o s i n g a s a t i s f a c t o r y l o c a t i o n f o r the cen-t e r i s e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t , a n o t h e r key c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n the development o f a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s the s e l e c t i o n o f the t e n a n t s . " S e l e c t i o n by the d e v e l o p e r of t e n a n t s " i s a prime f a c t o r i n the u l t i m a t e degree of s u c c e s s i n a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r o p e r a t i o n . The f i n a n c i a l s u c c e s s of a c e n t e r i s t i e d d i r e c t l y t o the management's a b i l i t y t o s e l e c t and b a l a n c e the mix of i t s t e n a n t s e x p e r t l y . . . w i t h the p r o p e r t e n a n t s e l e c t i o n and b a l a n c e , each t e n a n t l e n d s s t r e n g t h and market a p p e a l t o the g o t h e r s . . . " The d e v e l o p e r must e n s u r e t t h a t the mix o f t e n -a n t s w i l l p r o v i d e : c o m p e t i t i v e s h o p p i n g f o r a broad s e l e c t i o n o f merchandise, both i n terms of q u a l i t y and p r i c e ; s u f f i c i e n t c o m p e t i t i o n so t h a t the q u a l i t y o f s e r v i c e w i l l be a t l e a s t p a r 101 w i t h t h a t a v a i l a b l e a t any c o m p e t i t i v e f a c i l i t y ; and a comp-l e t e merchandise c o v e r a g e . The mix o f t e n a n t s s h o u l d a l s o c r e a t e a p l e a s a n t s h o p p i n g atmosphere, the l e a s e s s h o u l d be of a q u a l i t y t h a t w i l l p e r m i t the f i n a n c i n g r e q u i r e d , and r e n t s under such l e a s e s s h o u l d p r o v i d e a s a t i s f a c t o r y r e -t u r n on the i n v e s t m e n t . The t e n a n t mix i s a f a c t o r t h a t a l m o s t w i t h o u t excep-t i o n i s c o m p l e t e l y i g n o r e d i n r e t a i l models. A l t h o u g h t h e s e models accommodate an a t t r a c t i v e n e s s v a r i a b l e , i t i s gener-a l l y r e l a t e d o n l y t o the s i z e o f the f a c i l i t y . Even the a t t -r a c t i v e n e s s exponent i s s o l e l y a measure o f the u t i l i t y a s s o c -i a t e d w i t h s i z e o f the c e n t e r . C l e a r l y , t h i s i s a g r o s s o v e r -s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s i n c e f a c t o r s such as t e n a n t mix can have a g r e a t impact on the u l t i m a t e s a l e s l e v e l o f the s h o p p i n g cen-t e r . A c e n t e r w i t h a good t e n a n t mix w i l l out p e r f o r m a s i m i -l a r s i z e d c e n t e r w i t h a poor t e n a n t mix, a l l o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l . The models a v o i d such c o n s i d e r a t i o n s by assum-i n g t h a t t h e r e i s a h i g h degree o f sameness i n terms o f the t e n a n t mix o f l i k e - s i z e d c e n t e r s , and t h a t each s t o r e o f a g i v e n c h a i n o r type i s v a l u e d the same by the consumers i n v a r i o u s r e g i o n s . These assumptions a r e o f t e n i n c o r r e c t . W i t h o u t e x c e p t i o n , the f i r s t s t e p when e s t a b l i s h i n g the t e n a n t mix i s the s e l e c t i o n o f the key t e n a n t s . As a m a t t e r of f a c t , u n t i l some form of commitment from the key t e n a n t has been r e c e i v e d , much o f the f i n a l p l a n n i n g o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r ( i e i t s s i z e ) cannot be completed. The type o f key t e n a n t sought ( i e f u l l l i n e department s t o r e vs j u n i o r d e p a r t -102 ment s t o r e or supermarket) i s p r i m a r i l y based on the s i z e o f the p r o p o s e d c e n t e r . F o r example, i n a r e g i o n a l m a l l f u l l -l i n e department s t o r e s are the p r i m a r y key t e n a n t s . A c e n t e r of t h i s magnitude i s a l s o l i k e l y t o have secondary key t e n a n t s i n o r d e r t o enhance the d r a w i n g power of the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r ; a j u n i o r department s t o r e and a supermarket i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d . When d e t e r m i n i n g the most s u i t a b l e company ( i e S e a r s , Woodwards) f o r the c e n t e r , t h e r e are two p r i m a r y c o n s i d e r a -t i o n s which a r e : l ) the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the p o p u l a t i o n , andf 2) what i s a l r e a d y r e p r e s e n t e d i n the c o m p e t i t i v e c e n t e r s . I t i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t to know such c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the p o p u l a t i o n o f the t r a d e a r e a as age, income, sex , e t c . , when c h o o s i n g the t e n a n t s s i n c e i t g i v e s some i d e a as t o what type o f merchandise w i l l be b e s t a c c e p t e d . As w e l l as the merchandise c a r r i e d by the s t o r e s , one must a l s o c o n s i d e r the m e r c h a n d i s i n g p r a c t i c e s , and i n g e n e r a l , the image of the v a r -i o u s p o t e n t i a l • k e y t e n a n t s i n o r d e r t o determine which one b e s t s u i t s the r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n . C l e a r l y , d i f f e r e n t s t o r e s c a t e r t o , o r a t l e a s t a t t r a c t s p e c i f i c segments o f the p o p u l a -t i o n t o a much g r e a t e r degree t h a n o t h e r segments. F o r example, a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e degree o f Z e l l e r ' s b u s i n e s s comes from the l o w e r income, younger m a r r i e d type groups who t e n d t o be more p r i c e c o n s c i o u s t h a n f a s h i o n c o n s c i o u s . Sears a l s o c a t e r s t o the b l u e c o l l a r worker, a l t h o u g h t h e i r merchandise i s o f t e n a l i t t l e more f a s h i o n a b l e . Woodward's customers are u s u a l l y o l d e r and more e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n ( g e n e r a l l y w h i t e c o l l a r ) and are o f t e n i n the m i d d l e t o h i g h income b r a c k e t , and 103 are more t h a n l i k e l y m a r r i e d . E a t o n ' s customers are v e r y much l i k e Woodwards i n terms o f o c c u p a t i o n and income, but are g e n e r a l l y younger and more f a s h i o n c o n s c i o u s . I n t u r n , the Bay's customers are a l s o q u i t e f a s h i o n c o n s c i o u s , o f m i d d l e income, q u i t e young and o f t e n s i n g l e . From the few examples p r e s e n t e d above, the importance o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g b o t h the p r e f e r e n c e s o f your t r a d e a r e a r e s i d e n t s and the o f f e r i n g s o f the v a r i o u s t e n a n t s s h o u l d be e v i d e n t . C l e a r l y , t h e s e s t o r e s t a r g e t c e r t a i n segments of the p o p u l a t i o n , and hence the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the consumers i n an a r e a i s a key l o c a t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n . O b v i o u s l y , l o c a t i n g a Z e l l e r s i n an upper c l a s s r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a would n o t add much t o the drawing power o f your s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . The p r oblem o f s e l e c t i n g the key t e n a n t s becomes even more d i f f i c u l t when t h e r e i s more th a n one o f them, p a r t i c u l -a r l y when t h e r e i s more t h a n one o f the same t y p e , as i n the case o f a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r which may have two o r t h r e e department s t o r e s . Not o n l y do the anchor t e n a n t s have to be compatable w i t h the t r a d e a r e a p o p u l a t i o n , t h e y a l s o must be compatable w i t h t h e m s e l v e s . A l l o f the department s t o r e s i n t e r v i e w e d s t a t e d t h a t when l o c a t i n g i n a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r w i t h a n o t h e r department s t o r e , t h e y g e n e r a l l y wanted t o l o c a t e w i t h the b e s t m e r c h a n d i s e r so t h a t the s t r o n g e s t p o s s i b l e a t t r a c -t i o n t o the c e n t e r c o u l d be o b t a i n e d . They a l s o f e l t t h a t i t was i m p o r t a n t f o r the o t h e r s t o r e ' s merchandise mix and image t o be compatable w i t h the t r a d e a r e a r e s i d e n t s but d i f f e r e n t enough from t h e i r own i n o r d e r t o a v o i d u n n e c e s s a r y c o m p e t i t i o n . 104 The f o l l o w i n g g r o u p i n g s are a few examples o f p a r t n e r s h i p s t h a t have been h i g h l y c o m p a t i b l e i n the p a s t : S e a r s and Z e l l e r s ; S e a r s and The Bay, and; Woodwards and E a t o n s . Of c o u r s e , the most s u i t a b l e c o m b i n a t i o n w i l l depend on the c i r c u m s t a n c e s i n v o l v e d i n each i n d i v i d u a l s i t u a t i o n . I n essence, each s i t u a t i o n must be a n a l y z e d s e p a r a t e l y , r u l e s -of-thumb s i m p l y cannot be t a k e n as g i v e n . Once the major t e n a n t s have been s e l e c t e d , and some form o f commitment r e c e i v e d from them, the d e v e l o p e r may the n s e l e c t the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s t h a t w i l l c r e a t e the b e s t p o s s i b l e b a l a n c e . One o f the f i r s t s t e p s t h a t the d e v e l o p e r t a k e s t o a i d him i n h i s s e l e c t i o n i s t o conduct an i n v e n t o r y o f the s t o r e s r e p r e s e n t e d i n the c o m p e t i t i v e c e n t e r s . When c o n d u c t i n g such an i n v e n t o r y , the d e v e l o p e r s h o u l d pay p a r t i -c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o what s t o r e s are m i s s i n g from the v a r i o u s o u t l e t s and what ty p e s o f s t o r e s are under r e p r e s e n t e d . Under r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s c l e a r when a s t o r e ' s e s t i m a t e d s a l e s volume p e r square f o o t i s c o n s i d e r a b l y above i n d u s t r y s t a n d a r d s . I t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t t h a t when c o n d u c t i n g t h i s i n v e n t o r y t h a t i t i s remembered to i n c l u d e the merchandise c a r r i e d by the proposed department s t o r e s because i f t h e y have a s t r o n g f a s h -i o n o r i e n t a t i o n , f o r example, the c e n t e r might need to c u t back s l i g h t l y on the f a s h i o n o r i e n t e d s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s , a l -though the d e v e l o p e r would have t o be v e r y c a r e f u l i n how much he c u t back because the combined a t t r a c t i o n o f the f a s h i o n s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s can o f t e n s e r v e as an a d d i t i o n a l a t t r a c t i o n t o the c e n t e r . N o n e t h e l e s s , t h e r e i s o n l y so much p o t e n t i a l 105 b u s i n e s s w i t h i n a market a v a i l a b l e f o r f a s h i o n merchandise and t h e r e s i m p l y s h o u l d not be too much o f one t h i n g . Once i t has been det e r m i n e d which s t o r e s are under r e p r e s e n t e d i n the market a r e a and t h e s e v o i d s f i l l e d , the rem a i n d e r o f the v a c a n t s t o r e s must be f i l l e d i n such a manner t h a t the c e n t e r ' s mix i s p r o p e r l y b a l a n c e d . One must always keep i n mind t h a t one o f the main r e a s o n s t h a t shopp-i n g c e n t e r s came about i n the f i r s t p l a c e was t o s a t i s f y the i n h e r e n t d e s i r e o f consumers t o conduct one-stop s h o p p i n g , so t h e r e must be a wide enough range o f goods o f f e r e d t o s a t i s f y t h i s d e s i r e . One f i r m n o t e d t h a t as a g e n e r a l r u l e the f o l l o w i n g breakdown ( i n % G.L.A.) p r o v i d e d a f a i r l y rounded s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t mix f o r a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r : • - 25% l a d i e s ' f a s h i o n . - 10% men's wear. 7% j e w e l l e r y . - 30% g e n e r a l m erchandise. - the re m a i n d e r s h o u l d be s e r v i c e s and common a r e a . A l t h o u g h the above breakdown was g i v e n s p e c i f i c a l l y w i t h a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r i n mind, and i s n o t d i r e c t l y a p p l i c -a b l e t o o t h e r t y p e s o f c e n t e r s , the g e n e r a l i d e a i s c l e a r ; a w e l l rounded and b a l a n c e d t e n a n t mix i s the key t o s u c c e s s . A g a i n , the importance of a good t e n a n t mix t o the u l t i -mate s a l e s l e v e l of a sh o p p i n g c e n t e r must be s t r e s s e d . I t can make or break the endeavor i n c e r t a i n s i t u a t i o n s . When e s t i m a t i n g the p o t e n t i a l s a l e s l e v e l , one s i m p l y cannot 106 assume t h a t a l l s i m i l a r s i z e d c e n t e r ' s t e n a n t mixes are the same, as i s t h e case w i t h most r e t a i l models. Even i n t h e r a r e i n s t a n c e t h a t the merchandise mix i s the same f o r two c ompeting c e n t e r s , the a c t u a l companies r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e s e m a l l s i s l i k e l y t o he d i f f e r e n t . As was d i s c u s s e d i n an e a r l i e r s e c t i o n , t h i s a l o ne can have a d r a m a t i c impact s i n c e p a r t i c u l a r s t o r e s t e n d t o be p r e f e r r e d over o t h e r s i n c e r -t a i n a r e a s , so even though t h e r e o f t e n i s a h i g h degree o f sameness i n terms of t e n a n t mix between s i m i l a r s i z e d shopp-c e n t e r s , t h e r e a r e enough s u b t l e d i f f e r e n c e s t h a t can have an impact on the performance of the c e n t e r . T h i s p r e s e n t s one o f the major problems f a c i n g the a n a l y s t s i n c e a t the time he c o n d u c t s h i s s t u d y , the a c t u a l t e n a n t mix of the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s n o t l i k e l y t o be known. T h i s p u t s him i n the p o s i t i o n o f making c e r t a i n compromising assumptions as t o what the a c t u a l t e n a n t mix w i l l be. None-t h e l e s s , i f he c o nducts a s u r v e y of what type o f s t o r e s are needed ( u s i n g the p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d method) and i n t u r n recommends t h i s t o the d e v e l o p e r , h o p e f u l l y the r e s u l t a n t t e n a n t mix s h o u l d n o t be too d i f f e r e n t . I t i s f o r r e a s o n s such as t h i s t h a t the analysts!s p r e d i c t i o n s are meant t o be more of an a i d i n the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s t h a n an a c c u r -a t e p r e d i c t i o n . There are s i m p l y too many v a r i a b l e f a c t o r s t h a t he cannot account f o r a t such an e a r l y s t a g e i n the p r o c e s s . (E) L o c a t i n g the t e n a n t w i t h i n the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . A l t h o u g h l i k e l y n ot as i m p o r t a n t as the t e n a n t mix 107 i t s e l f , the a c t u a l p o s i t i o n i n g o f the s t o r e s w i t h i n the m a l l can have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the s a l e s l e v e l o f the shopp-i n g c e n t e r as a whole. A g a i n , t h i s f a c t o r i s assumed away i n models of r e t a i l l o c a t i o n . There are a number o f t h i n g s t h a t must be c o n s i d e r e d when l o c a t i n g the t e n a n t s w i t h i n the m a l l , some o f which a r e : 1) The s u i t a b i l i t y o f the t e n a n t f o r the l o c a t i o n . 2) The p u l l i n g power or customer a c c e p t a n c e " b y r e a s o n s of l o c a l p r e f e r e n c e f o r the merchant. 3) C o m p a t a b i l i t y and c o m p l i m e n t a r y s t a t u s w i t h a d j o i n -i n g s t o r e s . 4) Tenant's m e r c h a n d i s i n g p o l i c i e s . 5) P a r k i n g needs g e n e r a t e d by the t e n a n t . The p r i n c i p l e o b j e c t i v e when l o c a t i n g the t e n a n t s i s t o c r e a t e the g r e a t e s t degree of t r a f f i c t h r o u g h the m a l l . To do t h i s i t i s b e s t t o p o s i t i o n the anchor t e n a n t s i n such a manner t h a t the t r a f f i c between them n e c e s s a r i l y has to pass by the o t h e r s t o r e s . By p l a c i n g the p r i m a r y and s e condary a t t r a c t o r s i n l o c a t i o n s where t h e y f u n c t i o n as magnets; customers are p u l l e d t h r o u g h the c e n t e r from one magnet t o the o t h e r , p a s t the doors o f the t e n a n t s who f a l l i n t o the c a t e g o r y of t r a f f i c u s e r s . These l a t t e r cannot i n themselves a t t -r a c t a s u f f i c i e n t number of customers t o s u r -v i v e , and are t h e r e f o r e dependent upon f o o t t r a f f i c g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r i m a r y and second-a r y t r a f f i c a t t r a c t o r s and i n c e r t a i n cases are p r e p a r e d t o pay premium r e n t s f o r l o c a - Q t i o n s i n w hich t h e y can e n j o y such b e n e f i t s . A f t e r the p r i m a r y and s e condary a t t r a c t o r s have been l o c a t e d , the l o c a t i o n s of the o t h e r s t o r e s are c o n t r o l l e d t o some degree by the p r i n c i p l e o f c o m p a r t m e n t a l i z a t i o n - the 108 g r o u p i n g o f s t o r e s s e l l i n g r e l a t e d o r s i m i l a r m e rchandise, p a r t i c u l a r i l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t y p e , q u a l i t y , and p r i c e . F u r t h e r m o r e , the l o c a t i o n s o f the i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s depends upon t h e i r r e l a t i v e need f o r exposure^.to p e d e s t r i a n t r a f f i c and t h e i r a b i l i t y t o pay r e n t . A c a r d and g i f t shop, f o r example, which r e l i e s a lmost e x c l u s i v e l y on impulse p u r -chases w i l l need one o f the most c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s i n the m a l l i n o r d e r t o r e a c h i t ' s o p t i m a l ' s a l e s p o t e n t i a l ; p e o p l e s i m p l y do not s e a r c h f o r t h i s type o f s t o r e on most s h o p p i n g t r i p s . Most o f those i n t e r v i e w e d n o t e d t h a t t h e r e was no s e t p o s i t i o n f o r each type o f s t o r e w i t h i n the m a l l and t h a t t h e y r e l i e d m a i n l y on e x p e r i e n c e when l o c a t i n g the s t o r e s . One o f the most i m p o r t a n t t h i n g s i s t h a t the s t o r e must be easy t o f i n d . The d e v e l o p e r s h o u l d a l s o be aware o f p e d e s t r i a n t r a v e l f l o w t r e n d s . Thus, b e f o r e c o n s i d e r i n g the a c t u a l p o s i -t i o n i n g o f the s t o r e s w i t h i n the c e n t e r , t h e y must c o n s i d e r the d e s i g n o f the m a l l . F o r example, i f t h e r e are two, two s t o r e y department s t o r e s and a two s t o r e y m a l l , one d e p a r t -ment s t o r e s h o u l d have f a s h i o n on the l o w e r l e v e l and the o t h e r s h o u l d have f a s h i o n on the upper l e v e l ( h o p e f u l l y the en t r a n c e from the p a r k i n g l o t w i l l a l s o be on t h i s l e v e l ) . A t the same t i m e , the f a s h i o n - o r i e n t e d s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s s h o u l d be e q u a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d between the l e v e l s . T h i s p o l -i c y w i l l ensure t h a t each f l o o r i s e q u a l l y a t t r a c t i v e ( t h e r e -f o r e s i m i l a r r e n t s f o r the d e v e l o p e r ) and g e t s s i m i l a r volumes o f p e d e s t r i a n f l o w . 109 A n o t h e r g e n e r a l r u l e i s t h a t the f a s h i o n or j e w e l e r y s t o r e s w i l l u s u a l l y g e t the c o r n e r l o c a t i o n s ( g r e a t e s t ex-posure and window space) s i n c e t h e y can pay h i g h e r r e n t s . T h i s a l s o f o s t e r s g r e a t e r t r a f f i c f l o w s i n c e t h e r e are a t t -r a c t o r s a t each end o f the m a l l . Dead wings can have a d i s a s t e r o u s e f f e c t on the e n t i r e s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . A l t h o u g h the p r e v i o u s l y mentioned t h e o r y o f compart-m e n t a l i z a t i o n i s , as a g e n e r a l r u l e s a t i s f a c t o r y , one must c o n s i d e r the c o m p a t a h i l i t y o f n e i g h b o u r i n g s t o r e s i n g r e a t e r d e p t h . P a u l G u t h r i e , employed by a development company i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , conducted a s t a t i s t i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n o f s p e c i f i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s , which l e d to the f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s -i o n s : 1) G e n e r a l s t a t e m e n t s t h a t s i m i l a r uses b e n e f i t from b e i n g c l u s t e r e d t o g e t h e r a re u n r e l i a b l e ; 2) Women's wear and men's shoes are m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c -i a l but o t h e r women's o r i e n t e d p r o d u c t s do n o t b e n e f i t from c l o s e a s s o c i a t i o n ; 3) Men's wear b e n e f i t from b e i n g a d j a c e n t t o s i m i l a r u s e s ; 4) Men's wear and women's wear mix w e l l ; 5) Q u a l i t y j e w e l e r y and women's o r i e n t e d r e t a i l e r s dep-r e s s each o t h e r s s a l e s , w h i l e men's wear and j e w e l e r y mix w e l l ; 6) C a r d and g i f t shops b e n e f i t from c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o s i m i l a r u s e s , but s u f f e r when p l a c e d n e x t t o men's wear or women's shoes. C o n v e r s e l y , women's p r o d u c t s t e n d t o b e n e f i t when nex t t o c a r d and g i f t shops; 110 7) Department s t o r e s depress a d j a c e n t b u s i n e s s e x c e p t women's wear and f a b r i c - q u a l i t y j e w e l e r y , and d r u g / v a r i e t y , w h i l e s t a t i s t i c a l l y q u e s t i o n a b l e , may b e n e f i t from a b u t t i n g a department s t o r e ; 8) R e s t a u r a n t s h u r t the s a l e o f ego i t e m s , such as a p p a r e l a c c e s s o r i e s and shoes; 9) F a b r i c , p i a n o and organ, a u d i o , s e r v i c e s (except h a i r s t y l i s t s ) and banks g e n e r a l l y d e p r e s s e d the s a l e s volumes of t h e i r n e i g h b o u r s . A l t h o u g h c e r t a i n s t o r e g r o u p i n g s are more c o m p a t i b l e t h a n o t h e r s , more o f t e n the q u e s t i o n o f where t o l o c a t e the s t o r e w i t h i n the m a l l i s more i m p o r t a n t t h a n who l o c a t e s ad-j a c e n t t o i t . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y because c e r t a i n a r e a s w i t h i n the m a l l b e n e f i t from more p e d e s t r i a n t r a f f i c and v i s i b i l i t y . F o r example, i n a two l e v e l m a l l the f i r s t f l o o r g e n e r a l l y ' has a h i g h e r degree o f p e d e s t r i a n t r a f f i c t h a n t h e second f l o o r , t h e r e f o r e a p p a r e l , a c c e s s o r i e s , shoes and j e w e l e r y merchants, as w e l l as s p e c i a l t y f o o d r e t a i l e r s and o t h e r im-p u l s e merchants e x c e l on the f i r s t f l o o r . Drug, v a r i e t y , r e s t -a u r a n t , h a i r s t y l i s t s , and a u d i o shops on the o t h e r hand, a l l p e r f o r m w e l l on the second f l o o r . T h i s i s because t h e y gener-ate most o f t h e i r own b u s i n e s s . I n o t h e r words, the consumer goes t o the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r w i t h the s p e c i f i c i n t e n t i o n o f p u r c h a s i n g t h e i r goods or s e r v i c e s , and w i l l t h e r e f o r e s e a r c h f o r the s t o r e . Hence, the s e t y p e s o f s t o r e s do n o t r e q u i r e as v i s i b l e a l o c a t i o n as o t h e r s t o r e s m i g h t . ^ Co r n e r l o c a t i o n s , due t o t h e i r h i g h v i s i b i l i t y and I l l a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o p e d e s t r i a n f l o w s g e n e r a l l y are c o n d u s i v e t o h i g h e r s a l e s f o r c e r t a i n s t o r e s . S t u d i e s have shown t h a t women's a c c e s s o r i e s p a r t i c u l a r i l y e n j o y e d more t h a n m a r g i n a l b e n e f i t s from c o r n e r l o c a t i o n s , as d i d c a r d and g i f t shops, men's shoes, and q u a l i t y j e w e l e r y . The s t o r e s t h a t s u f f e r e d from c o r n e r l o c a t i o n s we're women's wear, u n i s e x , r e s t a u r a n t s , 12 and s p e c i a l t y f o o d s . S i n c e p e o p l e are w i l l i n g t o s e a r c h f o r t h i s l a t t e r group of s t o r e s , the i n c r e a s e d b u s i n e s s a c c -r u e d i n a h i g h l y a c c e s s i b l e l o c a t i o n s i m p l y would n o t j u s t i f y the i n c r e a s e d r e n t i n c u r r e d by a prime l o c a t i o n . I t must be s t r e s s e d t h a t when l o c a t i n g a s t o r e , thenmerchant must always weigh the p o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e d b u s i n e s s p o t e n t i a l a t a c e r t a i n l o c a t i o n a g a i n s t the i n c r e a s e d r e n t s c h a r g e d f o r such p o s i -t i o n s . I t i s s i m p l y a m a t t e r of economics. Because o f the n a t u r e o f the s h o p p i n g t r i p , and'i-the heavy demand f o r p a r k i n g s p a c e s , c a r e must always be t a k e n when l o c a -t i n g a supermarket. I f t h e r e i s n o t c o n v e n i e n t p a r k i n g f o r the supermarket (or t h e a t e r f o r t h a t m a t t e r ) i t w i l l l o o s e a good number of c u s t o m e r s . Supermarkets t h e r e f o r e , are gener-a l l y p l a c e d a t the end o f one wing. T h i s e n a b l e s the s u p e r -market t o have i t s own p a r k i n g a r e a and i t s own e n t r a n c e from the p a r k i n g l o t . Supermarkets are such a u b i q u i t o u s e n t i t y on the urban l a n d s c a p e t h a t the s l i g h t e s t i n c o n v e n i e n c e imposed upon the consumer might be j u s t enough t o make him opt f o r an a l t e r n a t i v e s t o r e . S e r v i c e shopss a l s o need a l o c a t i o n t h a t p r o v i d e s d i r e c t a c c e s s t o customer p a r k i n g due t o the r u n - i n , 13 r u n - o u t k i n d o f t r a d e t h a t t h e y t e n d t o c a p t u r e . J 112 Even from t h i s b r i e f o v e r v i e w , i t s h o u l d be q u i t e c l e a r t h a t t h e r e are a g r e a t many f a c t o r s t h a t must be t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n when l o c a t i n g a s t o r e w i t h i n a m a l l . The dev-e l o p e r or l e a s i n g agent must be f u l l y aware o f the n a t u r e o f each s t o r e ' s b u s i n e s s and the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s of the consumer t h a t p r e c e d e s h i s p u r c h a s e . I n the end i t r e a l l y comes down t o whether prominant p o s i t i o n s , and t h e r e f o r e h i g h e r r e n t s , r e s u l t i n g r e a t e r m a r g i n a l p r o f i t s f o r the s t o r e . S t o r e s whose b u s i n e s s volume does not v a r y much w i t h changes i n l o c a t i o n are s i m p l y b e t t e r o f f l o c a t i n g i n an a r e a i n the m a l l where the r e n t s are the c h e a p e s t . I t i s a l s o c l e a r t h a t a l t h o u g h i n r o a d s have been made i n t h i s a r e a o f i n t e r e s t , t h e r e i s need f o r a g r e a t d e a l more work on u n d e r s t a n d i n g th e r e q u i r e -ments o f the v a r i o u s s t o r e s and t h e consumers who p a t r o n i z e them. A l t h o u g h the few s t u d i e s t h a t have been conducted i n t h i s a r e a have i n d i c a t e d i t s importance t o the s a l e s l e v e l o f the i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s and t h u s the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r as a whole, most o f the academic l i t e r a t u r e pays no heed t o i t . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r i l y t r u e o f the q u a n t i t a t i v e t e c h n i q u e s espoused. As i n the case o f so many o t h e r f a c t o r s , these t e c h n i q u e s s i m p l y assume t h a t t h e r e are no d i f f e r e n c e s between s i m i l a r s i z e d s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i n terms of t h i s c r i t e r i a . T h i s i s a h i g h l y u n r e a l i s t i c v i e w p o i n t s i n c e a l l i n d i c a t i o n s t o date ( a l t h o u g h t h e r e have s i m p l y n o t been enough s t u d i e s t o prove i t ) p o i n t t o the g r e a t impact t h a t i n t e r n a l s t o r e l o c a t i o n has on the s a l e s l e v e l o f a s t o r e . E m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n a l s o 113 shows a marked i n c o n s i s t a n c y between c e n t e r s i n terms o f 14 what k i n d o f s t o r e s g e t what l o c a t i o n . I n e s s e n c e , app-r o a c h e s t h a t do not t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t the i n f l u e n c e o f t h i s c r i t e r i a are i n danger o f p r o d u c i n g weak r e s u l t s . (F) P r e d i c t i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth. I n many cases the d e v e l o p e r ' s u l t i m a t e d e c i s i o n as t o whether t o b u i l d o r n o t , and what the optimum s i z e o f the c e n t e r i s , i s dependent upon what the p o t e n t i a l f o r the cen-t e r w i l l be i n the f o r t h c o m i n g y e a r s . I n o r d e r t o s a t i s f a c -t o r i l y s e r v e the market, and t o m i n i m i z e the r i s k o f y e t a n o t h e r c o m p e t i t o r e n t e r i n g the a r e a , the w i s e d e v e l o p e r w i l l g e n e r a l l y b u i l d a s l i g h t l y l a r g e r s t o r e t h a n i s r e q u i r e d dur-i n g the base y e a r . C l e a r l y , w i t h o u t a r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t i o n as t o what the ne a r f u t u r e h o l d s f o r the a r e a , i t would be v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o determine what the damand f o r the v e n t u r e w i l l be, s i n c e o b v i o u s l y a growth i n the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i s s y n -onomous w i t h an i n c r e a s e i n demand, and i n t u r n , an i n c r e a s e i n the p o t e n t i a l s a l e s l e v e l o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . A mar-k e t a r e a where the p o t e n t i a l f o r f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n growth i s l i m i t e d i s o f t e n a l e s s d e s i r a b l e l o c a t i o n t h a n a s i t e t h a t i s i n an a r e a t h a t e x p e c t s f a i r l y h i g h l e v e l s o f p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the y e a r s t o come. C o n s e q u e n t l y some r e l i a b l e method f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n t r e n d s i s e s s e n t i a l . A s i d e from a few s l i g h t v a r i a t i o n s , the same method was used by al m o s t a l l o f those i n t e r v i e w e d . When a t t e m p t i n g t o p r e d i c t the l e v e l s o f p o p u l a t i o n growth, and the d i r e c t i o n of t h i s e x p a n s i o n , t h e y i n v a r i a b l y b e g i n by l o o k i n g a t h i s t o r i c a l 114 t r e n d s . I n o t h e r words, what has been the l e v e l o f p o p u l a -t i o n growth i n the p a s t ? Has the p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e been r i s i n g o r l o w e r i n g ? E m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e has s u g g e s t e d t h a t r a t e s of growth t e n d to be f a i r l y h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h the l e v e l o f growth i n the r e c e n t p a s t . One cannot s a f e l y assume though, t h a t p a s t t r e n d s w i l l r e m a i n c o n s t a n t so the a n a l y s t must a l s o check i n t o o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s t h a t c o u l d a l t e r the r a t e s o f e x p a n s i o n . One o f the b e s t s o u r c e s of the n e c e s s a r y supplementary i n f o r m a t i o n i s l o c a l p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t i e s . They w i l l be a b l e t o p r o v i d e v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e i r p l a n n i n g p o l i c i e s , z o n i n g b y l a w s , and any major events t h a t t h e y might be p a r t o f . The p l a n n e r s w i l l a l s o be a b l e t o i n d i c a t e where and what type of h o u s i n g i s s l a t e d t o be b u i l t over the n e x t few y e a r s . I t i s e s s e n t i a l t o have a c c e s s t o such i n f o r m a t i o n because i t can have a d r a s t i c impact upon the f u t u r e market p o t e n t i a l o f the s hopping c e n t e r . F o r example, i f the a r e a t h a t the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s t o be b u i l t i s zoned i n such a way t h a t i t r e s t r i c t s the d e n s i t y o f r e s i d e n t i a l development, the growth p o t e n t i a l o f the t r a d e a r e a c o u l d be s e v e r e l y c u r -t a i l e d . G e o g r a p h i c a l b a r r i e r s are a l s o a v e r y i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d -e r a t i o n , s i n c e t h e y can c o n t r o l t h e d i r e c t i o n o f e x p a n s i o n as w e l l as p l a c e a l i m i t on the amount of room l e f t t o d e v e l o p . F o r example, P e n t i c t o n , due t o g e o g r a p h i c a l b a r r i e r s cannot expand much more i n an outward d i r e c t i o n , whereas C a l g a r y . h a s u n l i m i t e d p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r e x p a n s i o n . The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f 115 t h i s are e v i d e n t . Major i n d u s t r i a l p r o j e c t s i n the area., i f any are p l a n n e d , must he c o n s i d e r e d , a l o n g w i t h any p r o j e c t s i n the p a s t t h a t might have i n f l a t e d the i n - m i g r a t i o n o f p e o p l e above r e a s o n a b l e l e v e l s , s i n c e i n f l a t e d growth r a t e s c a n n o t , and w i l l n o t , c o n t i n u e i n d e f i n i t e l y . T h i s t ype of i n f o r m a -t i o n i s c r i t i c a l because i n many ways i t i s the l e v e l o f new job c r e a t i o n w i t h i n an a r e a t h a t d e t e r m i n e s i t s l e v e l o f p o p u l a t i o n growth. When e s t i m a t i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth i n terms o f j o b s c r e a t e d , a s i m p l e e q u a t i o n o f : j o b s c r e a t e d x 2.75 (average f a m i l y s i z e ) = p o p u l a t i o n growth, i s g e n e r a l l y s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e . The n a t u r e o f the employment i s a l s o v e r y i m p o r t a n t . One must c o n s i d e r what the o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r each sex w i l l be, the g e n e r a l l e v e l o f pay a v a i l a b l e , and the l o n g e v i t y o f the p r o j e c t e t c . , i n o r d e r t o t r u l y a s s e s s i t s impact on the l e v e l o f demand f o r ^ t h e s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . The r e s e a r c h e r must a l s o l o o k and see what i s happen-i n g i n the p r o v i n c e as a whole i n o r d e r t o determine whether t h e r e i s a n y t h i n g s i g n i f i c a n t t a k i n g p l a c e t h a t c o u l d p o s s i b l y have an impact on the market a r e a of the p r o s p e c t i v e s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . The o i l boom i n A l b e r t a and the tremendous r a t e o f growth t h a t i t i s f o s t e r i n g i n a l m o s t a l l r e g i o n s o f the p r o v -i n c e i s one good example. Whatever i s s p a r k i n g the growth, as w e l l as the economic base o f the p r o v i n c e i n g e n e r a l , and more s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e market a r e a i n q u e s t i o n , a l s o g i v e s a g r e a t d e a l o f i n s i g h t i n t o the l i k e l y p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the f u t u r e r e s i d e n t s . 116 I n e s s e n c e , t o p r e d i c t the f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n growth and the d i r e c t i o n s o f t h i s e x p a n s i o n , h i s t o r i c t r e n d s c o u p l e d w i t h d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h a l l those who might have some i n s i g h t i n t o the problem w i l l g e n e r a l l y g i v e the a n a l y s t enough in** f o r m a t i o n t h a t s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s a re p o s s i b l e . Of c o u r s e , t h e term o f the p r o j e c t i o n i s p r i m a r i l y a f u n c t i o n o f the s i z e and type o f c e n t e r p r o p o s e d . F o r a r e g i o n a l cen-t e r , the l e n g t h o f the p r o j e c t i o n i s n e c e s s a r i l y g r e a t e r t h a n i t would be f o r a neighbourhood c e n t e r . F u r t h e r m o r e , the s h o r t e r the p r o j e c t i o n , the g r e a t e r the l i k e l i h o o d o f i t b e i n g a c c u r a t e , t h u s l e n g t h y p r o j e c t i o n s must be ke p t somewhat con-s e r v a t i v e (see appendix E f o r examples o f p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s ) (G) P o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . As was mentioned e a r l i e r , c e r t a i n s t o r e s t e n d t o be f a v o r e d over o t h e r s by p a r t i c u l a r segments o f the p o p u l a t i o n . F o r i n s t a n c e , Z e l l e r ' s o b t a i n s a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e share o f t h e i r customers from the l o w e r c l a s s segment. M a r t i n e a u ' s s t u d i e s p o i n t out t h a t a l t h o u g h the upper c l a s s consumers may have the income t o v i s i t a l most any s t o r e t o purchase a p a r t i c u l a r p r o d u c t , c e r t a i n s t o r e s w i l l n o t be p a t r o n i z e d due t o t h e i r a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h l o w e r s t a t u s consum-e r s . A s i d e from merchandise d i f f e r e n c e s , such a s s o c i a t i o n s may be the r e s u l t of g a r i s h a d v e r t i s e m e n t s , uneducated s t o r e p e r s o n n e l , o r some o t h e r f a c t o r t h a t the p o t e n t i a l consumer may f i n d somewhat o f f e n s i v e . S i m i l a r i l y , l o w e r c l a s s consumers may a v o i d c e r t a i n s t o r e s w h i c h e x h i b i t h i g h e r s t a t u s c o n n o t a -t i o n s , e.g. the p r o d u c t s do n o t d i s p l a y the p r i c e , o r s a l e s p e r s o n n e l c r e a t e the atmosphere t h a t the consumer does n o t 117 r e a l l y f i t i n . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o note though, t h a t such q u a l i t a t i v e d i f f e r e n c e s between s t o r e s do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a p p l y t o a l l t y p e s o f pu r c h a s e s made. M a r t i n e a u s t u d i e s a l s o i n d i c a t e t h a t m i d d l e c l a s s consumers i n g e n e r a l d i d not h e s i t a t e p u r c h a s i n g a p p l i a n c e s from d i s c o u n t o r b a r g a i n s t o r e s , p a r t i c u l a r i l y i f the s e s t o r e s d e a l t i n a few w e l l known brands where i t would be h a r d to make a m i s t a k e . I n the case o f f u r n i t u r e , on the o t h e r hand, t h e y were more l i k e l y t o go t o a s t a t u s c o n s c i o u s s t o r e because t a s t e s i n f u r n i t u r e were more s u b t l e , brand names were l e s s w e l l known, and the s u p p o r t o f the s t o r e ' s own t a s t e s would p r e v e n t a s o c i a l m i s t a k e b e i n g made. I n s h o r t , f o r one r e a s o n o r a n o t h e r , s t o r e s p r o j e c t a c e r t a i n "image and consumers p r e f e r t o shop i n s t o r e s t h a t r e f l e c t an image congruent w i t h t h e i r own s e l f image. Shopping p a t t e r n s i n downtown Vancouver d i s p l a y t h i s q u i t e c l e a r l y . The c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t c o n s i s t s o f two s u b - a r e a s , one c e n t e r i n g on H a s t i n g s S t r e e t and the Woodward's department s t o r e . T h i s a r e a e x h i b i t s the type of goods and s t o r e p e r s o n a l i t i e s which t e n d t o a p p e a l t o the l o w e r c l a s s consumers. The second a r e a f o c u s e s on G r a n v i l l e S t r e e t and the Hudson's Bay s t o r e . I n t u r n , t h i s a r e a i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f a h i g h e r s t a t u s s h o p p i n g d i s t r i c t , w i t h h i g h e r p r i c e d goods and s t o r e s w i t h more e x c l u s i v e p e r s o n a l i t i e s . G a y l o r ' s s t u d y found t h a t the G r a n v i l l e S t r e e t a r e a draws more h e a v i l y on the west s i d e o f Vancouver and the n o r t h s h o r e o f B u r r a r d I n -l e t (two o f the h i g h e r c l a s s a r e a s i n the r e g i o n ) t h a n on the 118 e a s t s i d e o f the c i t y (a l o w e r s t a t u s a r e a ) . The H a s t i n g s S t r e e t a r e a , on the o t h e r hand, draws customers more e v e n l y a c r o s s the c i t y , a l t h o u g h i t has more r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n the l 6 e a s t s i d e o f the c i t y t h a n i s t r u e f o r G r a n v i l l e S t r e e t . The s t u d y i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s i s a r e f l e c t i o n o f s t o r e c h o i c e , n o t s i m p l y one o f l o c a t i o n a l i n f l u e n c e , d e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t G r a n v i l l e S t r e e t i s more p r o x i m a t e t o the west s i d e . The r e s u l t s o f G a y l o r ' s s t u d y are not n e a r l y as con-c l u s i v e i n the s u r r o u n d i n g m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n however t h i s i s n o t r e a l l y s u r p r i s i n g . I n t h i s a r e a , the l o c a t i o n a l f a c -t o r s seem t o ta k e o v e r . F o r i n s t a n c e , a l t h o u g h a c e r t a i n consumer may p r e f e r Woodwards, he may p a t r o n i z e E a t o n s more r e g u l a r i l y i f the n e a r e s t Woodwards i s - c o n s i d e r a b l y f u r t h e r away from h i s p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e t h a n i s the n e a r e s t E a t o n s . I t i s s i m p l y a m a t t e r o f the consumer w e i g h i n g the c o s t s and b e n e f i t s o f each a l t e r n a t i v e . Due t o t h e f a c t t h a t n o t a l l department s t o r e s are r e p r e s e n t e d i n eaeh'j.-. a r e a (as i s t r u e of the CBD) t e s t i n g o f s t o r e p r e f e r e n c e t h r o u g h o b s e r v e d p a t -ronage i s n o t e n t i r e l y s a t i s f a c t o r y s i n c e the consumer i s n o t t o t a l l y f r e e t o e x e r c i s e h i s c h o i c e because of c e r t a i n con-s t r a i n t s , d i s t a n c e b e i n g the o b v i o u s one. \ - N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s c l e a r t h a t consumers do have p a r t i -c u l a r s t o r e p r e f e r e n c e s , and t h e s e must be c o n s i d e r e d when l o c a t i n g new s t o r e s . D e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t i t has been shown t h a t i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n , department s t o r e s a r e ca p a b l e o f a t t r a c t i n g s o c i a l c l a s s segments t h a t one would n o t ex p e c t t o be a t t r a c t e d by t h i s s t o r e , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t the s t o r e 119 would p e r f o r m b e t t e r i f l o c a t e d i n the v i c i n i t y o f consumers whose s e l f image i s more c o m p a t i b l e w i t h the s t o r e ' s own image. I t appears t h a t the s t o r e s are i n c r e a s i n g l y becoming aware o f the importance o f t h i s f a c t o r and are t h e r e f o r e p a y i n g a g r e a t d e a l more a t t e n t i o n t o p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s when making t h e i r l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n , s i n c e the com-p a t i b i l i t y o f the t r a d e a r e a p o p u l a t i o n w i t h the s t o r e has a c o n s i d e r a b l e impact on the l e v e l o f s a l e s t h a t the s t o r e w i l l u l t i m a t e l y r e c e i v e . T h i s f a c t o r a l o n e can s t o p a s t o r e from e n t e r i n g a market even though t h e r e i s enough g e n e r a l demand i n the a r e a t o s u p p o r t the p a r t i c u l a r s t o r e t y p e . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e o f j u n i o r department s t o r e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , one o f the j u n i o r department s t o r e s i n t e r v i e w e d chose n ot t o e n t e r a m a l l i n White Rock because t h e y d i d n o t f e e l t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f the t r a d e a r e a was congruent w i t h t h e i r image and merchandise mix. S i n c e the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the a r e a can i n f l u e n c e the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n of s t o r e s such as d e p a r t -ment s t o r e s , i t i n t u r n has an e f f e c t on t h e s h o p p i n g c e n t e r as a whole. I t can even determine whether the c e n t e r i t s e l f can be b u i l t o r n o t , because a c q u i r i n g a key t e n a n t can be v e r y d i f f i c u l t i f the o n l y compatable department s t o r e a l r e a d y has an o u t l e t i n the a r e a . I f one cannot be o b t a i n e d , the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i t s e l f cannot be b u i l t ( a l t h o u g h a d m i t t e d l y t h i s would be more o f an e x c e p t i o n t h a n a r u l e ) . I t can a l s o i n f l u e n c e the s i z e of the c e n t e r because i f "only a j u n i o r department s t o r e can be s e c u r e d as a key t e n a n t , a community 120 c e n t e r i s r e a l l y the o n l y o p t i o n . Of c o u r s e , one would have t o he sure t h a t a community c e n t e r would he s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r the a r e a i n q u e s t i o n . The a c t u a l anchor t e n a n t o b t a i n e d can a l s o have a d i r e c t e f f e c t on the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s r e q u i r e d . As can be seen the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f an a r e a can have b o t h a d i r e c t and an i n d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e on the s a l e s l e v e l t h a t can be a c h i e v e d by a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . A g a i n , t h i s i s a f a c t o r t h a t i s g e n e r a l l y i g n o r e d by the b u l k o f the l i t e r a t u r e , and c l e a r l y , t h i s i s a f l a w t h a t must be c o r r e c t e d i n o r d e r t o improve the p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y o f t h e i r t e c h n i -ques . (H) L o c a t i n g s t o r e s as p a r t o f a network. D e s p i t e the importance o f the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s , t h e anchor t e n a n t s are the key c o n s i d e r a t i o n when l o c a t i n g the sh o p p i n g c e n t e r . I f the d e v e l o p e r cannot o b t a i n the r i g h t key t e n a n t f o r the l o c a t i o n , he may as w e l l f o r g e t about b u i l d i n g the c e n t e r . I n may ways the l o c a t i o n o f the shopping c e n t e r must f i t i n w i t h the t e n a n t ' s c o r p o r a t e s t r a t e g i e s and master p l a n . I n most cases each o f the companyy.s s t o r e s are p l a n n e d as a p a r t o f a network. I n o t h e r words, new l o c a -t i o n s are p l a n n e d r e l a t i v e t o e x i s t i n g l o c a t i o n s . I n t h e case o f s u p e r m a r k e t s , due t o the massive amount of r e s e a r c h t h a t t h e y c o n d u c t , t h e y have a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s o f the t r a d e a r e a b o u n d a r i e s o f each o f t h e i r e x i s t i n g s t o r e s . When these t r a d e a r e a s are p l a c e d on a map, the a r e a s where t h e y are n o t s a t i s f a c t o r i l y r e p r e s e n t e d become o b v i o u s . These v o i d s are t h e n a n a l y s e d i n o r d e r t o determine t h e i r p o t e n t i a l . 121 The r e s e a r c h t h a t t h e y do a l s o p u t s them i n the p o s i t i o n o f b e i n g a b l e t o approximate how much t r a d e a new s t o r e w i l l s t e a l from t h e i r e x i s t i n g o u t l e t s . They emphasized t h a t a l -though t h e i r s t o r e s were p l a n n e d as p a r t o f a network, t h e y shoot f o r i n d i v i d u a l u n i t p r o f i t a b i l i t y . That i s , t h e y w i l l n o t b u i l d a s t o r e s i m p l y because i t f i t s n i c e l y i n t o the n e t -work. The demand must be adequate t o j u s t i f y the e x i s t e n c e of t he o u t l e t . The purpose o f t h i s network p e r s p e c t i v e i s more t o c o v e r the e n t i r e market t h a n t o d i m i n i s h c o m p e t i t i o n . The n a t u r e o f t h e i r e n t e r p r i s e does n o t r e q u i r e l o c a t i n g away from t h e i r c o m p e t i t o r s . As l o n g as the market p o t e n t i a l e x i s t s , t h e y can l o c a t e a c r o s s t h e s t r e e t from o t h e r o u t l e t s . Department s t o r e s a l s o t a k e a network p e r s p e c t i v e when t h e y a re l o c a t i n g t h e i r new s t o r e s . They gave two r e a s o n s f o r a d o p t i n g t h i s s t r a t e g y : l ) t o keep out the c o m p e t i t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e case o f j u n i o r department s t o r e s , and; 2) t o ensure t h a t t h e y are r e p r e s e n t e d i n a l l p o s s i b l e a r e a s . T h e i r s t r a t e g y was v e r y much the same as the supermar-k e t s except f o r one i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e ; t h e y were w i l l i n g t o e n t e r the market p r e m a t u r e l y i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h them-s e l v e s . They s a i d t h a t t h e y would go i n t o a m a l l even i f i t meant l o o s i n g money f o r the f i r s t f i v e y e a r s i f t h e y f e l t t h a t i t was p o s s i b l e t h a t i f t h e y d i d not e n t e r the market, a n o t h e r department s t o r e would. They f e l t t h a t t h e y were f o r c e d t o do so because i f th e y d i d n o t , t h e y might have t r o u b l e g e t t i n g i n t o the m a l l a t a l a t e r date and might be f o r c e d t o a c c e p t an i n f e r i o r l o c a t i o n and a weaker p a r t n e r ( o t h e r anchor t e n a n t ) 122 i n o r d e r t o c o v e r the market. N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e y s a i d t h a t i t was r a r e f o r them t o he f o r c e d i n t o such s i t u a t i o n s . The concept o f a network i s a s t r a t e g y t h a t i s gener-a l l y i g n o r e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e . On the whole, the academics assume t h a t the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s i s s o l e l y a f u n c t i o n o f the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f demand. A l -though t e c h n i c a l l y t h i s i s c o r r e c t , i t t e l l s o n l y p a r t o f the s t o r y . R a t h e r t h a n l o o k i n g a t the l o c a t i o n o f r e t a i l f a c i l i -t i e s s i m p l y a t the m i c r o l e v e l , i t appears n e c e s s a r y t o a l s o l o o k a t s t o r e ' l o c a t i o n from the macro l e v e l . The e x i s t i n g a l i g n m e n t o f most o f the major c h a i n s t o r e s o ver an e n t i r e r e g i o n s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e s t h e i r d e c i s i o n i n r e g a r d s t o the l o c a t i o n o f each new u n i t . I t i s e s s e n t i a l f o r the w e l l b e i n g o f the e n t i r e c h a i n t o be r e p r e s e n t e d i n a l l a r e a s o f the r e g i o n , as l o n g as the demand e x i s t s o f c o u r s e . T h i s can a l s o s e r v e t o m i n i m i z e the r i s k o f a c o m p e t i t o r m o n o p o l i z i n g a c e r t a i n a r e a . A l t h o u g h i t i s i m p o r t a n t f o r the company t o c o n s i d e r i n d i v i d u a l u n i t p r o f i t a b i l i t y , t h e y must a l s o c o n s i d e r the c h a i n as a whole when making t h e i r l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s . I n e s s e n c e , i t must be remembered t h a t these t e n a n t s a re n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t r y i n g f o r optimum p r o f i t i n each u n i t , t h e y may choose a l o c a t i o n even though a n o t h e r s i t e might p r o v i d e a s l i g h t l y h i g h e r s a l e s l e v e l . Of c o u r s e , the d i f f e r e n c e be-tween the two c o u l d n o t be t o o r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t . Thus i t can be seen t h a t a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r ' s l o c a t i o n can be s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by the master p l a n o f the v a r i o u s key t e n a n t s . 123 As a f i n a l p o i n t , i t was n o t e d t h a t due t o z o n i n g r e s t r i c t i o n s and the f a c t t h a t n o t a l l s i t e s are v a c a n t , the network seldom l o o k s as i t was o r i g i n a l l y e n v i s a g e d . ( I ) Z o n i n g . Zoning has a p a r t i c u l a r i l y s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e on the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s i n most urban a r e a s . G e t t i n g an a r e a r e z o n e d can be a d i f f i c u l t and l e n g t h y p r o c e s s . The d e v e l o p e r must know how t o d e a l w i t h the p o l i t i c a l a s p e c t s o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r development, and w i l l o f t e n have t o compromise on h i s o r i g i n a l p l a n s . He has t o be c o m p l e t e l y o r g a n i z e d and h i s t i m i n g has t o be r i g h t , so o n l y the most e x p e r i e n c e d d e v e l o p e r s s t a n d much of a chance. Any d i f f i c u l t i e s o r d e l a y s t h a t the d e v e l o p e r i n c u r s i n g e t t i n g an a r e a r e z o n e d adds t o the o v e r a l l c o s t o f the p r o -j e c t . Depending upon the s i t u a t i o n , s i z e o f c e n t e r , and c i t y c o n c e r n e d , i t may t a k e anywhere from 2 - 1 2 y e a r s . f r o m the time the c e n t e r was f i r s t p l a n n e d u n t i l the time i t f i n -a l l y opens i t ' s doors t o the p u b l i c . A l l o f the overhead c o s t s ( i e l e g a l f e e s ) t h a t such d e l a y s i n v o l v e must be r e -c o v e r e d by c h a r g i n g the t e n a n t s h i g h e r ' r e n t s . These t e n a n t s i n t u r n must charge the customer h i g h e r p r i c e s f o r i t ' s goods. "There i s no q u e s t i o n t h a t b u r e a u c r a c y , p a r t i c i p a t o r y democ-r a c y and p o l i t i c s can add a g r e a t d e a l t o the c o s t o f the r e n t 17 you must pay and pass a l o n g t o your customers." ' F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s , among o t h e r , d e v e l o p e r s u s u a l l y t r y t o a v o i d c o n f r o n t i n g such a s i t u a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r i l y i n the case o f a r e g i o n a l c e n t e r , due t o the amount of l a n d i n v o l v e d . 124 Some of the d e v e l o p e r s mentioned t h a t s i n c e most o f the so-c a l l e d growth areas' are p r e - p l a n n e d t o i n c l u d e s i t e s f o r s h o p p i n g c e n t e r development, i t i s s i m p l y a m a t t e r o f w a i t -i n g u n t i l the a r e a i s mature enough t o s u p p o r t the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . B u i l d i n g a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i n an a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d a r e a can he a r e a l p o l i t i c a l i s s u e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i f a r e z o n i n g a p p l i c a t i o n i s made, the p l a n n e r s must be aware, and i n many ways s y m p a t h e t i c o f t h e s i t u a t i o n t h a t t h e d e v e l o p e r i s i n , b u t a t the same ti m e be concerned w i t h what i s b e s t f o r the r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n . I d e a l l y t h e s e two concerns w i l l be mutual s i n c e what i s b e s t f o r the d e v e l o p e r s h o u l d be b e s t f o r h i s customers i f t h e r e i s a t r u e need f o r such a f a c i l i t y . However, the r e c e n t t r e n d has been towards a t i g h t e n i n g o f c o n t r o l s and t h i s c o u l d have some u n i n t e n d e d consequences. "There i s a d i s t i n c t danger t h a t t h r o u g h f u t u r e u t i l i t y n e t -works, z o n i n g powers and o t h e r r e g u l a t o r y and d i r e c t g o v e r n -ment c o n t r o l s , l a n d use p l a n n i n g w i l l become much l e s s f l e x i b l e so t h a t p l a n n e r s r a t h e r t h a n the market p l a c e w i l l decide'-the s p e c i f i c l o c a t i o n o f f u t u r e r e t a i l c e n t e r s , u n d o u b t e d l y t o the d e t r i m e n t o f the d e v e l o p e r , r e t a i l e r and the s h o p p i n g p u b l i c . Government a g e n c i e s have n e v e r p r o v e d t o be b e t t e r a l l o c a t o r s -| Q o f r e s o u r c e s t h a n a f r e e market." A g a i n , i t i s c l e a r t h a t i t i s not s o l e l y the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f demand t h a t d i c t a t e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f shopp-i n g c e n t e r s i n a r e g i o n . P l a n n e r s , among o t h e r government o f f i -c i a l s are i n c r e a s i n g l y p r e d e t e r m i n i n g what the s p a t i a l a l i g n m e n t .125 o f c e n t e r s w i l l be f o r many y e a r s t o come. As was mentioned, t h i s c o u l d have some u n i n t e n d e d i m p l i c a t i o n s u n l e s s t h e y con-s i d e r b oth the r e q u i r e m e n t s o f the d e v e l o p e r and the needs o f the r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n . F o r example, p l a n n e r s who are o v e r l y p r o t e c t i v e o f t h e e x i s t i n g r e t a i l c o r e might n o t see the de-mand f o r a new f a c i l i t y . I f an a r e a i s t r u l y u n d e r s t o r e d , and the e x i s t i n g o u t l e t s a re i n s a t i s f a c t o r y c o n d i t i o n , e t c . , a l l can p r o s p e r . S h o p p ing c e n t e r s a re a l s o o f t e n w r o n g l y viewed as e v i l and are f o r c e d i n t o u n s u i t a b l e , out o f the way a r e a s . O f t e n t i m e s t h i s i s n e i t h e r good f o r the b u s i n e s s comm-u n i t y o r good f o r t h e s h o p p i n g needs o f the p o p u l a t i o n i n the a r e a . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t must be r e a l i z e d t h a t a m u l t i t u d e o f f a c t o r s o u t s i d e o f the b u s i n e s s w o r l d can i n f l u e n c e the a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s over an u r b a n l a n d s c a p e , so when l o o k i n g a t the p r e s e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n , one must be aware t h a t i t has been a wide v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s t h a t have d e t e r -mined t h i s v i s a b l e p a t t e r n . ( j ) F r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e . The anchor t e n a n t s p l a y a major r o l e i n a t t r a c t i n g the consumer t o the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r and i n t u r n b o o s t the p o t e n -t i a l s a l e s o f the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s . Due t o t h e i r a t t r a c t i v e powers, as t e n a n t s t h e y r e c e i v e p r e f e r e n t i a l r e n t s and/or r e -c e i v e p a r t o f the g r o s s p r o f i t s ( o f t e n 1 0 % ) . I n e s s e n c e , the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s s u b s i d i z e the department s t o r e s . A l t h o u g h i t i s u n d e n i a b l y t r u e t h a t the anchor t e n a n t s a re b e n e f i c i a l t o the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s , i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d , the r e v e r s e i s a l s o t r u e . I n o t h e r words, the s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s a l s o b o o s t 126 the s a l e s o f the a n c h o r s . I n o t h e r words, i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s n o t as p a r a s i t i c as might be e x p e c t e d . To g a i n some i n s i g h t i n t o t h i s q u e s t i o n the anchor merchants were asked t o s t a t e t h e i r p o s i t i o n on f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e s as opposed t o s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s . I t was i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o te t h a t w i t h the e x c e p t i o n o f the s u p e r m a r k e t s , none of the major r e -t a i l e r s would c o n s i d e r l o c a t i n g i n a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e . There were a number of r e a s o n s g i v e n as an e x p l a n a t i o n o f why t h e s e s t o r e s would no l o n g e r l o c a t e i n a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e . They s a i d t h a t the f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e s were more e x p e n s i v e t h a n the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s , m a i n l y because t h e y had t o p r o v i d e e v e r y t h i n g themselves ( i e l a n d , b u i l d i n g s , p a r k -i n g , maintenance e t c . ) . P r e f e r e n t i a l r e n t s , among o t h e r t h i n g s , a l s o made sh o p p i n g c e n t e r s q u i t e a b i t c h e a p e r . A l t h o u g h c o s t i s most d e f i n i t e l y a f a c t o r , the main r e a -son t h a t t h e y d i d n o t want t o l o c a t e i n a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c -t u r e i s the p r i n c i p l e o f c u m u l a t i v e a t t r a c t i o n . To use a t e x t -book d e f i n i t i o n , the p r i n c i p l e s t a t e s t h a t : "A g i v e n number of s t o r e s d e a l i n g i n the same merchandise w i l l do more b u s i n e s s i f t h e y are l o c a t e d a d j a c e n t or i n p r o x i m i t y to each o t h e r t h a n i f t h e y are w i d e l y s c a t t e r e d . . . w h e r e items s o l d i n v o l v e d a good d e a l of s h o p p i n g f o r s t y l e , d e s i g n , c o l o u r , f i t , and the l i k e , t h e c l u s t e r p o s i t i o n i s p r e f e r a b l e , e s p e c i a l l y i f b r a n d names 19 are not a c r i t i c a l element i n the t y p i c a l consumer's d e c i s i o n . " 7 I n o t h e r words, the p r e s ence of s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s s e l l i n g dep-artment s t o r e type merchandise (DSTM) adds t o the d r awing pow-er of the department s t o r e . The p r e s ence o f a n o t h e r department 127 s t o r e a l s o s t r e n g t h e n s t h i s c u m u l a t i v e a t t r a c t i o n . T h i s a t t r a c t i o n outweighs the c o m p e t i t i v e impact o f the second department s t o r e because consumers would r a t h e r shop a t a p l a c e t h a t had two or t h r e e department s t o r e s t h a n a c e n t e r t h a t had o n l y one such s t o r e . A l t h o u g h a l l o f the department s t o r e s s t a t e d t h a t under no c o n d i t i o n would t h e y l o c a t e i n a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e , t h e s upermarkets i n d i c a t e d t h a t t t h e y would l o c a t e i n e i t h e r a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e o r a m a l l . They s a i d t h a t t h e y would sometimes a v o i d s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s because t h e y f e l t t h a t the r e n t s and common a r e a maintenance charges were u n j u s t i -f i a b l y h i g h . They f e e l t h a t t h e y a re a major drawing f o r c e f o r a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r and t h e r e f o r e s h o u l d g e t the same p r e -f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t t h a t the department s t o r e s do, and i f t h e y do n o t , w i l l o f t e n go f r e e s t a n d i n g . They do n o t b e l i e v e t h a t l o c a t i n g w i t h i n a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s as b e n e f i c i a l t o them as i t might be t o o t h e r t y p e s o f s t o r e s due t o the n a t u r e o f the type o f s h o p p i n g t r i p i n v o l v e d . They a l s o s a i d t h a t t h e y w i l l go f r e e s t a n d i n g when t h e r e i s n o t an a v a i l a b l e shopp-i n g c e n t e r i n t h e l o c a t i o n t h e y want. T h i s q u e s t i o n as t o f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e s vs s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s f o r c e s one t o q u e s t i o n some o f the t e c h n i q u e s advoc-c a t e d by the t h e o r i s t s f o r e s t i m a t i n g the s a l e s p o t e n t i a l o f s t o r e s and shopping c e n t e r s . F i r s t , i f the c a l c u l a t i o n s i n -c l u d e o n l y the s i z e o f the i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e i n q u e s t i o n , i t does not t a k e i n t o account the i n f l u e n c e t h a t the r e s t of the s t o r e s have on the drawing power o f the s t o r e . On the o t h e r 128 hand, i f the square f o o t a g e from the e n t i r e s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i s i n c l u d e d , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o assume t h a t each s t o r e type b e n e f i t s e q u a l l y from the p r e s e n c e o f o t h e r s t o r e s . A l s o , i n most c a s e s , by c o n s i d e r i n g the square f e e t o f r e t a i l space i n the e n t i r e m a l l , t h i s i s t r e a t i n g a l l of the s t o r e s e q u a l -l y . However, i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t the s t o r e s t h a t are gener-a t o r s o f b u s i n e s s s h o u l d be t r e a t e d d i f f e r e n t l y t h a n those s t o r e s t h a t have a r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l of drawing power. As w e l l , i t has been w i t n e s s e d t h a t s t o r e s such as s u p e r -markets b e n e f i t t o a l e s s e r degree by t h e presence of o t h e r s t o r e s t h a n department s t o r e s do. A l t h o u g h the more r e c e n t models have i n t r o d u c e d an a t t r a c t i v e n e s s exponent i n an a t t -empt t o accommodate such problems, i t i s q u e s t i o n a b l e t o what degree t h a t t h i s attempt has been s u c c e s s f u l , s i n c e v e r y l i t t l e e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h has been conducted i n t h i s r e g a r d . F u r t h e r m o r e , the academics g e n e r a l l y assume t h e y can e m p i r i c a l l y f i t the model t o an e x i s t i n g s t o r e and t h e n d i r -e c t l y t r a n s f e r t h e s e r e s u l t s t o the proposed c e n t e r i n ques-t i o n . The v a l i d i t y o f t h i s p r a c t i c e however, i s q u e s t i o n a b l e s i n c e t h i s approach i n f e r s a h i g h degree of sameness between l i k e - s i z e d s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i n terms o f such t h i n g s as t e n a n t mix and i t s a c c e ptance by the r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n , a c c e s s , e t c . C l e a r l y a g r e a t d e a l more r e s e a r c h i n t h i s a r e a i s r e -q u i r e d b e f o r e the e x a c t i n f l u e n c e t h a t the s hopping c e n t e r i t -s e l f has on the s a l e s volumes of i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s can be d e t -ermined. 129 Moreover, the l i t e r a t u r e o f t e n l o o k s o n l y a t the bene-f i t s o f c e r t a i n l o c a t i o n s w i t h o u t p a y i n g any a t t e n t i o n t o the c o s t f a c t o r s or the r e a l e s t a t e b e n e f i t s t h a t might be a c c r u e d by a p a r t i c u l a r • l o c a t i o n . F o r example, a l t h o u g h a s i t e might p r o v i d e a s l i g h t l y l o w e r s a l e s l e v e l t h a n a n o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e c o u l d , i t s t i l l may be the s u p e r i o r s i t e o v e r a l l . I t must n o t be f o r g o t t e n t h a t r e n t s and o t h e r such c o s t s must be deducted from the o v e r a l l s a l e s l e v e l of the s t o r e . I n s h o r t , u n l e s s the m a r g i n a l b e n e f i t s i n terms o f s a l e s t h a t can be o b t a i n e d by l o c a t i n g i n a s h o p p i n g c e n t e r o u t -s t r i p the a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s , i t i s o f t e n b e t t e r t o l o c a t e i n a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e . N r v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s f a i r l y r a r e , as i s w i t n e s s e d by the v e r y few f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e s t h a t are b e i n g b u i l t t o d a y . (K) F u t u r e t r e n d s . A number of p o s s i b l e t r e n d s i n the r e t a i l i n d u s t r y were a l s o i n d i c a t e d i n the i n t e r v i e w s . Any changes i n the t r a d i -t i o n a l forms of r e t a i l i n g o r development are o f g r e a t i n t e r e s t t o the a n a l y s t s i n c e t h e y can have a p r o f o u n d e f f e c t on the v a l i d i t y o f the a n a l y t i c a l approaches used. The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n c o n s i s t s o f an a n a l y s i s o f the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f a few o f the d i r e c t i o n s t h a t those i n t e r v i e w e d b e l i e v e d t h a t the f u t u r e o f r e t a i l i n g was more t h a n l i k e l y t o head. One o f the department s t o r e s i n t e r v i e w e d s t a t e d t h a t one o f the major problems w i t h most r e t a i l e r s , i n c l u d i n g t h e m s e l v e s , was t h a t t h e y i n s i s t e d on p l a c i n g a p r o t o t y p e s t o r e i n a l l new l o c a t i o n s . He s a i d t h a t a l t h o u g h the a r c h i t e c t u r a l s t y l e o f 130 t h e i r own b u i l d i n g s may v a r y , i t was the same 160,000 square f o o t s t o r e found anywhere. He f e l t t h a t i t was a m i s t a k e t o be so s t a n d a r d i z e d s i n c e each a r e a p r e s e n t s a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s . He f e l t t h a t i n some o f t h e a r e a s i n w hich t h e y have b u i l t new s t o r e s , o n l y s m a l l e r s t o r e s w i t h more l i m i t e d merchandise o f f e r i n g s were m e r i t e d . T h i s t r e n d towards s m a l l e r department s t o r e s was echoed i n almo s t a l l o f the i n t e r v i e w s . They f e l t t h a t i n the f u t u r e you c o u l d e x p e c t t o see a l l o f the major department s t o r e s e x p e r i m e n t i n g w i t h s m a l l e r s t o r e s , p o s s i b l y i n the 60,000 t o 80,000 square f o o t r a n g e . A l t h o u g h t h e y e x p e c t e d t h a t the department s t o r e s would be b u i l d i n g s m a l l e r u n i t s , c a r e would be t a k e n so t h a t t h e y d i d not l o o s e t h e i r image and be l o o k e d a t i n the same l i g h t as a j u n i o r department s t o r e . F u r t h e r , due t o the i n c r e a s i n g growth i n o u t l y i n g a r e a s , you c o u l d a l s o e x p e c t t o see more s m a l l e r c e n t e r s b e i n g b u i l t a t the expense o f the r e g i o n a l s . There are t h r e e p r i n c i p l e r e a s o n s f o r the e x p e c t e d d o w n - s i z i n g o f sh o p p i n g c e n t e r s , which a r e : ^° 1) The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a p p r o p r i a t e l a n d i s d i m i n i s h i n g . I t i s o f t e n e a s i e r t o l o c a t e on two or more p a r c e l s , each of l e s s t o t a l a r e a t h a n t o f i n d a l a r g e r s i n g l e s i t e ; 2) As t r a f f i c g e t s b u s i e r , p e o p l e cannot t r a v e l the same amount o f m i l e s i n t h e same amount o f t i m e . P e o p l e w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l 3° minutes b e f o r e , s t i l l may be w i l l i n g t o , but now can o n l y c o v e r h a l f the d i s t a n c e . Thus the g e o g r a p h i c p r o x i m i t y of two c e n t e r s may be l e s s c o m p e t i t i v e t h a n t h e y 131 would have been a few y e a r s ago. P e o p l e may n o t be w i l l i n g t o i n c r e a s e t r a v e l l i n g time p a r t i c u l a r i l y c o n s i d e r i n g f u e l c o s t s ; 3) R e n t a l c o s t s , energy c o s t s , u t i l i t y c o s t s and e v e r y -t h i n g e l s e t h a t has t o do w i t h space i s e s c a l a t i n g . A n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s s c a l i n g down of s i z e was the s u p e r m a r k e t s . They s a i d t h a t due t o the i n c r e a s i n g c o s t o f opening a new s t o r e , the t r e n d would be t o l a r g e r u n i t s . I t i s s i m p l y more e c o n o m i c a l f o r them t o b u i l d l a r g -e r s t o r e s t h a t would do g r e a t e r volumes. They have b u i l t some e x t r e m e l y l a r g e s t o r e s (50,000 square f e e t ) i n m i d d l e markets and are p l a n n i n g some i n the c i t i e s . These u n i t s have been v e r y s u c c e s s f u l t o d a t e , a l t h o u g h t h e y a re s t i l l t o o r e c e n t a phenomenon as y e t t o determine whether t h e y expand the a r e a l e x t e n t o f % t h e t r a d e a r e a , i t s p e n e t r a t i o n , b o t h or n e i t h e r . The e f f e c t o f the energy c r u n c h on s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e ; p e o p l e w i l l make l e s s t r i p s , but does t h i s mean g o i n g t o c l o s e s t o r e s , o r g o i n g f u r t h e r t o l a r g e r m a l l s f o r one s t o p shopping? The answers t o t h i s q u e s t i o n are mixed. F o r example, F r e d r i c k T. E a t o n o f T. E a t o n Co., L t d . s t a t e s t h a t I n an e r a t h a t I b e l i e v e w i l l be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n c r e a s i n g l y e x p e n s i v e f u e l , and t h e r e f o r e t r a v e l , fewer t r i p s w i l l be made by i n d i v i d u a l s and f a m i l i e s . The coming e r a w i l l see the r e -t u r n t o one s t o p s h o p p i n g . There w i l l be no c a s u a l d r i v i n g down t o t h e sho p p i n g p l a z a f o r one i t e m . C a r e f u l l y p l a n n e d s h o p p i n g e x c u r -s i o n s w i l l be the r u l e , and I b e l i e v e t h a t f o r 132 t h i s v e r y r e a s o n , the l a r g e r e g i o n a l m a l l s and the downtowns w i l l f l o u r i s h a t the ex-pense o f s t r i p m a l l s and o t h e r weaker shopp- £]_ i n g a r e a s . T h i s o p i n i o n however, i s not h e l d by a l l those i n the f i e l d . As Joe Meyer o f Grandma Lee's I n t e r n a t i o n a l comments, " I t i s our b e l i e f t h a t the s m a l l s t r i p c e n t e r c o u l d be the t h i n g o f the 80's. The r e g i o n a l c e n t e r w i l l be used l e s s f r e q u e n t -l y , but f o r l a r g e r p u r c h a s e s . The s t r i p c e n t e r , however, w i l l be used as a f i l l e r due t o the energy c r u n c h . These s m a l l c e n t e r s w i l l be more s o p h i s t i c a t e d t h a n they were i n 22 the p a s t to a p p e a l t o the more d i s c r i m i n a t i n g shopper." As i s demonstrated by the s e two c o n t r a d i c t o r y v i e w p o i n t s , as o f y e t i t i s s t i l l a l i t t l e e a r l y t o determine the e f f e c t t h a t r i s i n g f u e l c o s t s w i l l have on consumer patronage p a t -t e r n s , a l t h o u g h i t i s e q u a l l y e v i d e n t t h a t some changes are imminent. I t was a l s o f e l t t h a t due t o the "Save the Downtown" movement, as w e l l as the i n c r e a s i n g a d o p t i o n o f r a p i d t r a n -s i t , you c o u l d expect to see more suburban type s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s l o c a t i n g i n the downtown. The major s t r u c t u r a l t r e n d would be to a more compact m u l t i - s t o r i e d c e n t e r . S i n c e f o o d -s t o r e s are r a r e i n downtown s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s , t h e y a l s o ex-p e c t t o see more o f them g o i n g up as f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e s . As y e t though, r e l a t i v e l y few downtown s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s have been b u i l t , so v e r y l i t t l e i s known o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r the s u c c e s s o f such endeavours, a l t h o u g h i t i s ob v i o u s t h a t the t r a d i t i o n a l t e c h n i q u e s used f o r l o c a t i n g t h e i r suburban 133 c o u n t e r p a r t s are i n s u f f i e n t . " . . . C o m p l e t i n g a downtown p r o -j e c t i s c o m p l e t e l y d i f f e r e n t from d e v e l o p i n g a suburban r e g -i o n a l m a l l , and those who assume t h e y s i m p l y can t r a n s f e r t h e i r suburban e x p e r i e n c e t o the i n n e r c i t y are p r o b a b l y 23 d e s t i n e d t o f a i l . " F o r example, i f you r u n demographics on the a r e a , i t doesn't r e a l l y mean a n y t h i n g because most o f the peopl e who shop t h e r e don't l i v e t h e r . " U n l i k e t h e i r suburban c o u n t e r p a r t s , the p r i m a r y t r a d e a r e a o f an urban c e n t e r u s u a l l y does n o t c o n t a i n the peopl e l i v i n g n e a r the c e n t e r . However, the p r o x i m i t y o f o f f i c e b u i l d i n g s and h o t e l s w i t h the r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s o f i n - c i t y developments o f f e r s a new k i n d o f p r i m a r y t r a d e a r e a w i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f customers who are downtown f o r r e a s o n s o t h e r t h a n 24 shoppmg." The t h r e e mam s o u r c e s o f customers appear t o be : 1) The o f f i c e worker; 2) The ou t - o f - t o w n t o u r i s t s and b u s i n e s s v i s i t o r ; 3) The s u b u r b a n i t e s and i n n e r c i t y r e s i d e n t s . The degree o f r e s i d e n t i a l s e t t l e m e n t i n i n n e r c i t y n e i g h -bourhoods i s s i m p l y t o o s m a l l t o p r o v i d e a v i a b l e market f o r the s c a l e o f commercial a c t i v i t i e s r e p r e s e n t e d i n the C.B.D. A s t u d y i n S e a t t l e found t h a t shoppers from o u t l y i n g a r e a s i n the c i t y and s u r r o u n d i n g c o u n t i e s accounted f o r more t h a n 65 p e r c e n t o f a l l s a l e s t o downtown s t o r e s . The s t u d y f u r t h e r s u g g e s t s t h a t l e s s t h a n 50 p e r c e n t of a l l shoppers e n t e r the 2 ^  downtown f o r t h e p r i m a r y purpose of s h o p p i n g . ^ I t i s s i g n i -134 f i c a n t t h a t fewer t r i p s are b e i n g made f o r the s o l e pur-• pose o f s h o p p i n g , e a t i n g or r e c r e a t i o n , because t h i s means t h a t i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d the amount o f pur c h a s e s made by the worker enroute t o and from h i s j o b w i l l i n c r e a s e i n p r o p o r -t i o n . Thus i t i s f e l t t h a t the e x p a n s i o n o f o f f i c e employ-ment r e p r e s e n t s t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e growth market f o r r e t a i l i t e m s . S u rveys conducted i n downtown Denver show t h a t 85 p e r c e n t o f a l l employees make more t h a n o n e - q u a r t e r o f t h e i r e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r c l o t h i n g and a p p a r e l i n the downtown, w h i l e 2 30 p e r c e n t make v i r t u a l l y a l l such p u r c h a s e s m the C.B.D. A s t r o n g o f f i c e c o r e i n the C.B.D. i s g e n e r a l l y a l l i e d w i t h a s t r o n g commercial c o r e . A r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f C.B.D. r e t a i l s a l e s and C.B.D. o f f i c e space i n 37 U n i t e d S t a t e s m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s i n d i c a t e s a p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n o f r e t a i l s a l e s w i t h the q u a n t i t y o f o f f i c e space i n the urban c o r e . I t was found t h a t 60 p e r c e n t o f the v a r i a t i o n s i n C.B.D. s a l e s i s r e l a t e d t o the amount o f C.B.D. o f f i c e space i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . I n a t t -empting t o e x p l a i n v a r i a t i o n s i n the amount o f r e t a i l a c t i v i t y i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n C.B.D.'s, i t was found t h a t the most i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e r e l a t i n g t o the amount of C.B.D. s a l e s (R=0.86) was the p o p u l a t i o n s i z e s o f the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , but t h a t the n e x t most i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e 2 7 was the amount o f C.B.D. o f f i c e space (R=0.75)-N e v e r t h e l e s s , a l t h o u g h some i n s i g h t has been made i n terms of where the customers a re coming from, methods f o r p r e d i c t -i n g how much o f t h i s p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s can be tapped are as y e t v e r y few and r e l a t i v e l y u n t e s t e d . T h i s i s an a r e a t h a t 135 r e q u i r e s a g r e a t d e a l more i n v e s t i g a t i o n b e f o r e any r e l i a b l e c o n c l u s i o n s can be made. I t has a l s o been found t o be bene-f i c i a l t o mix the r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s i n w i t h a number o f o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s such as s m a l l p a r k s , p l a z a s , r e s t a u r a n t s , and t h i n g s o f t h i s n a t u r e i n o r d e r t o make s h o p p i n g p a r t o f 2 8 the u r b an e x p e r i e n c e . F u r t h e r , s i n c e the downtown i s a l s o a p l a c e o f b u s i n e s s , government, e n t e r t a i n m e n t , and much more, i t i s e s s e n t i a l f o r r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s t o work 29 , w i t h these o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s i n a m u t u a l l y s u p p o r t i v e f a s h i o n . I n e s s e n c e , you want t o merchandise the the downtown as a whole . I n terms of such developments,. The main r i s k s i n c l u d e the l i k e l i h o o d o f l o n g d e l a y s i n the pre-development phase, h a r d t o p r e d i c t c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , p o l i t i c a l u n c e r t -ainties?,.; p o t e n t i a l heavy t a x burden and the problems o f maintenance and s e c u r i t y . From the customer's p o i n t o f v i e w , the l i k e l y more r e s t r i c t e d opening hours compared to r e g i o n a l c e n t e r s , and the r e s i s t a n c e t o p a i d p a r k i n g are o t h e r p o t e n t i a l p r o blem a r e a s . D i f f i c u l t y w i t h i n t e r i m or permanent f i n a n c i n g from t r a d i -t i o n a l s o u r c e s must a l s o be e x p e c t e d . The l a c k of c o n t r o l o f nearby p u b l i c a r e a s must be r e c o g n i z e d as w e l l as a c c e s s problems g e n e r a l l y ' a s s o c i a t e d w i t h downtown l o c a t i o n s . The main p o s i t i v e f a c t o r s i n c l u d e the e x i s t a n c e o f a l a r g e market, e x t e n s i v e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i n p l a c e , i n c l u d i n g p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and the f a c t t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e e f f e c t i v e c o m p e t i t i o n f o r e x p e r i e n c e d downtown r e d e v e l o p e r s . • A l t h o u g h a r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t phenomenon, the development o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s i n the c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t appears t o be a t r e n d t h a t w i l l c o n t i n u e f o r some t i m e . I n f a c t , i t c o u l d be one o f the more s i g n i f i c a n t e v e n ts t h a t marks t h i s p e r i o d o f t r a n s i t i o n . As the suburban markets (the t r a d i t i o n a l 136 m a i n s t a y of the sho p p i n g c e n t e r i n d u s t r y ) become i n c r e a s i n g l y s a t u r a t e d , s h o p p i n g c e n t e r d e v e l o p e r s a re f o r c e d t o s e a r c h out new markets. As was mentioned, one o f the most p r o m i s -i n g o f t h e s e i s the downtown. The r e t a i l component o f the downtowns o f most major c i t i e s have been n e g l e c t e d e v e r s i n c e the exodous of i t s p o p u l a t i o n t o the s u b u r b s . I n many ways t h i s t r e n d i s r e v e r s i n g and hence s u p p l y i n g new o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Indeed, t h e s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s a re new, and are l a r g e l y the r e s u l t o f the f a c t t h a t p e o p l e ' s l i f e s t y l e s are c h a n g i n g and the urban c e n t e r i s i n c r e a s i n g l y becoming the f o c u s o f a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n o f the p e o p l e ' s a c t i v i t y . D e v e l o p i n g a downtown s h o p p i n g c e n t e r p r o v i d e s a unique s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s and has n e c e s s i t a t e d a change i n the' t r a d i t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s e s . The t e c h n i q u e s used f o r a n a l y s i n g the market p o t e n t i a l f o r a suburban s h o p p i n g c e n t e r a re n o t t r a n s f e r a b l e t o i t s urban c o u n t e r p a r t . The methods used i n the suburban case are s i m p l y not s e n s i t i v e enough. I t i s c l e a r t h a t c o n s i d e r i n g p u r e l y o b j e c t i v e mea-s u r e s such as s i z e o f c e n t e r , and t r a v e l time from the con-sumer's r e s i d e n c e t o the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , as the o n l y two d e t e r m i n a n t s of s h o p p i n g c e n t e r c h o i c e i s n o t adequate. There are too many n o n - q u a n t i f i a b l e f a c t o r s t h a t must a l s o be con-s i d e r e d . F o r example the r e s u r g e n c e o f downtown s h o p p i n g has demonstrated t h a t the p r o x i m i t y t o the customer's r e s i -dence i s not always the most i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i o n . I t has a l s o i n d i c a t e d t h a t when d e t e r m i n i n g the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f a s p e c i f i c s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , the s u r r o u n d i n g l a n d uses can 137 p l a y a p a r t i c u l a r i l y s t r o n g r o l e , as i s w i t n e s s e d by /the f a c t t h a t o n l y a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f the consumers e n t e r the downtown f o r the s o l e purpose o f s h o p p i n g . (L) C o n c l u s i o n . One of the t h i n g s t h a t has become i n c r e a s i n g l y e v i d e n t i s the need f o r a more w h o l i s t i c approach t o the s t u d y o f r e t a i l l o c a t i o n . The p r e s e n t approaches are too fragmented and thus t e l l o n l y p a r t o f the s t o r y . A l t h o u g h n o t a l l the f a c t o r s e x p e c t e d t o i n f l u e n c e where s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s a r e l o c a -t e d , and the s a l e s l e v e l t h a t the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r might u l t i -m a t e l y r e c e i v e were d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n , i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t a f a i r l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample o f the c r i t i c a l ones were examined. C o n s i d e r i n g o n l y the s i z e o f a c e n t e r and i t s p r o x -i m i t y t o i t s t r a d e a r e a r e s i d e n t s , as i s the case i n much of the academic l i t e r a t u r e , i s n o t s a t i s f a c t o r y due t o the my-r i a d of o t h e r p o t e n t i a l l y i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s . A l t h o u g h t h e s e o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e t t h o u g h t t o be s a l i e n t , v e r y l i t t l e i s known about e x a c t l y how s i g n i f i c a n t each o f them a r e . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y a' r e s u l t o f t h e g e n e r a l l a c k o f e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n t h a t has been conducted i n t h i s r e g a r d . T h i s i s an a r e a of r e s e a r c h t h a t c o u l d prove t o be q u i t e f r u i t f u l i n f u r t h e r i n g our u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h i s p roblem. L i k e l y one o f the r e a s o n s f o r the l a c k o f a t t e n t i o n i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n by most of the academics i s t h e i r concen-t r a t i o n on d e v e l o p i n g models whereby the a n a l y s t need o n l y t o p l u g i n the r e l e v a n t s t a t i s t i c s , l e a v i n g the computer t o do a l l o f the p r e d i c t i o n s . The problem w i t h u s i n g v a r i a b l e s 138 o t h e r t h a n s i z e and d i s t a n c e i s t h a t t h e y deny them s e l v e s o f q u a n t i f i c a t i o n and thus cannot be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the model. F o r example how does one v a l i d l y q u a n t i f y manager-i a l s k i l l ? Thus the a n a l y s t f i n d s i t e a s i e r t o s i m p l y i g n o r e t h e s e o t h e r v a r i a b l e s by assuming t h a t a l l s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s are the same, o t h e r t h a n i n terms of measures i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the models. T h i s i s a h i g h l y u n r e a l i s t i c a s sumption and must f o r c e one t o q u e s t i o n the v a l i d i t y o f the model's o u t p u t . A problem t h a t f a c e s both the academics and the b u s i n e s s -men when c o n d u c t i n g a b r o a d e r a n a l y s i s , i s t h a t t h e r e are a number o f i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h a t cannot be measured u n t i l w e l l i n t o the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s ( l o n g a f t e r the market a n a l y s i s must be c o m p l e t e d ) ; -one example b e i n g the t e n a n t mix o f t h e s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . I t appears t h a t t h e r e i s no r e a l s o l u t i o n t o such p r o b l e m s , so i t makes i t n e x t t o i m p o s s i b l e f o r the a n a l y s t t o make e x a c t p r e d i c t i o n s . T h i s i s one of the r e a s o n s t h a t most i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d v i e w s a l e s p r o j e c t i o n s as b e i n g h i g h l y t h e o r e t i c a l and more an a i d i n d e c i s i o n making t h a n an a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n . I n e s s -ence, the a n a l y s t i s t r y i n g t o determine whether the p r o j e c t i s f e a s i b l e , n o t p r e d i c t p r o f i t s . There are too many f a c t o r s t h a t cannot be a c c o u n t e d f o r i n the f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y t h a t can have a g r e a t impact on the s a l e s l e v e l o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r . A l t h o u g h t h i s v i e w p o i n t may seem to be a b i t of a cop-out on the p a r t of the businessmen, i t must be r e a l i z e d 139 t h a t t h i s a r e a o f i n t e r e s t i s not a s c i e n c e , d e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t many o f the academics p r e f e r t o t r e a t i t as su c h . I t i s a l s o e v i d e n t t h a t when c h o o s i n g a s i t e f o r a r e -t a i l f a c i l i t y , t h a t t h e s a l e s l e v e l s t h a t a re ex p e c t e d t o he a c h i e v e d a t each a l t e r n a t i v e a re n o t the o n l y c o n s i d e r a -t i o n t o be made. The d e v e l o p e r must always weigh the c o s t s o f a p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n a g a i n s t the b e n e f i t s . He must c o n s i d e r the r e n t s and the v a l u e o f the p a r c e l of l a n d as a p i e c e o f r e a l e s t a t e . He must a l s o account f o r the p o t e n t i a l l o n g e v i t y o f the s i t e by c o n s i d e r i n g what the f u t u r e may h o l d f o r each a l t e r n a t i v e and i t s r e s p e c t i v e h i n t e r l a n d . I t i s the v a r i o u s u n c e r t a i n t i e s t h a t o f t e n i n d u c e d e v e l o p e r s t o p l a y the r o l e o f s a t i s f i e r s . I n o t h e r words, i t i s n o t always the soundest d e c i s i o n i n the l o n g r u n t o aim f o r op-timum p r o f i t s s i n c e i t i s sometimes b e t t e r t o choose a s a f e r a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t s e c u r e s a s a t i s f a c t o r y r e t u r n , p a r t i c u l a r i l y c o n s i d e r i n g the dynamic n a t u r e o f the i n d u s t r y . As a f i n a l p o i n t , i t i s e s s e n t i a l t o g a i n a b e t t e r under-s t a n d i n g o f the n a t u r e o f the consumer's d e c i s i o n making p r o -c e s s t h a t p recedes h i s p u r c h a s e . T h i s c o u l d a i d g r e a t l y i n d e t e r m i n i n g where consumers w i l l shop, which i n t u r n w i l l e s t a -b l i s h the s a l e s l e v e l o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r as a whole. C l e a r l y , i t i s the p r e d i c t i o n o f consumer t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t h a t the whole a n a l y s i s i s about, so a n y t h i n g we l e a r n about h i s b e h a v i o r w i l l do n o t h i n g but h e l p . I n c o n c l u s i o n , i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t the academics b e g i n 140 t o t a k e a b r o a d e r o u t l o o k a t the c o m p l e x i t i e s o f r e t a i l l o c a -t i o n a n a l y s i s b oth i n terms of the v a r i o u s d e t e r m i n a n t s of s t o r e c h o i c e , and i n l i g h t of i t s r o l e i n the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s . As w e l l , g r e a t e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n must be g i v e n t o the c o n s t r a i n t s imposed on t h e i n d u s t r y b e f o r e any p r a c t i c a l advances can be e x p e c t e d t o be made by t h e t h e o r i s t s . 141 FOOTNOTES. 1. Richard C. Nelson. The S e l e c t i o n Of R e t a i l  L o c a t i o n s . New York: F.W. Dodge Co r p o r a t i o n , 1958. p 204. 2. Barry J . Garner. The I n t e r n a l S t r u c t u r e Of  R e t a i l N u c l e a t i q n s . Department of Geography, Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y . 1966. p 98. 3 . J . Ross McKeever, N a t h a n i e l M. G r i f f e n and Frank H. Spink J r . Shopping Center Development Handbook. Urban Land I n s t i t u t e . 1977• P 37-4. C o l i n S. Jones. Regional Shopping Centers: T h e i r  L o c a t i o n , Planning And Design. Business Books L i m i t e d , London, 1969- p 49. 5 . McKeever. Shopping Center Development Handbook. P 3^-35. 6. V i c t o r Gruen and L a r r y Smith. Shopping Towns  U.S.A.: The Planning Of Shopping Centers. New York: Reinhold P u b l i s h i n g C o r p oration, I960, p 90• 7« D.L. Thompson. "Consumer convenience and r e t a i l area s t r u c t u r e . " J o u r n a l Of Marketing Research. V o l . 4, February 1967. p 37. 8. Gruen and Smith. Shopping Towns U.S.A.: The  Planning Of Shopping Centers, p 132. 9 I b i d , p 128. 10. P a u l R. G u t h r i e . " S t a t i s t i c a l survey r e v e a l s e f f e c t on s a l e s of store l o c a t i o n i n s i d e m a l l . " Shopping  Center World. May, 1980. p 127. 11. I b i d , p 128. 12. I b i d , p 128. 13. McKeever. Shopping Center Development Handbook. P 139. 14. G u t h r i e . " S t a t i s t i c a l survey r e v e a l s e f f e c t on sal e s of sto r e l o c a t i o n i n s i d e m a l l . " p 128. 15. H.J. Gaylor. Consumer S p a t i a l Behavior, Vancouver. (Unpublished P.H.D. t h e s i s , U.B.C.) 1974. p 137. 142 16. I b i d , p 139. l ? . Reg F i f e , "Zoning problems - everyone's head-ache." Shopping Center Canada. V o l . 1 ( 2 ) , Nov. 1979. p 21 . 18. Herman J . K i r c h e r . "North American Shopping Center Development Trends In The 1980's." (Unpublished memo) Toronto, Canada: L a r r y Smith and A s s o c i a t e s L t d . 1980. p 9 . 19. Nelson. The S e l e c t i o n Of R e t a i l L o c a t i o n s , p 58 . 20. Margeret Opsata. " I n n e r - c i t y centers now prime a l t e r n a t i v e i n development arena." Shopping Center World. V o l . 9 (11) , November 1980. p 28. 21. F r e d r i c k S. Eaton. "Industry p r e d i c t i o n s . " Shopping Center Canada. V o l . 2 ( 2 ) , May, 1980. p 74. 22 . Joe Meyer. "Industry p r e d i c t i o n s . " Shopping  Center World. V o l . 2 ( 2 ) , May, 1980. p 75. 23« Opsata. " I n n e r - c i t y centers now prime a l t e r n a -t i v e i n development arena." p 25-24. Kim A. F r a s e r . "Marketing problems of urban centers r e q u i r e now s t r a t e g i e s . " Shopping Center World. V o l . 8 ( 9 ) , September 1979. P 24. 25. A l Smith. "The future of downtown r e t a i l i n g . " Urban Land. V o l . 3 ( l l ) , December 1972. p 4 . 26. I b i d , p 6. 27. W i l l i a m R. Code. C o n t r o l l i n g The P h y s i c a l  Growth Of The Urban Core: A Study On The I m p l i c a t i o n s Of  R e s t r i c t i v e Zoning In The C e n t r a l Business D i s t r i c t Of  Toronto. Industry and Labour Advisory Committee to the Mayor, C i t y of Toronto. 1975. p 158. 28. Michael C. Cunningham. "Can downtown be r e i n -vented?" E k i s t i c s . V o l . 43 , 1977. p 62 . 29. Lawrence A. Alexander, (ed.) Downtown M a l l s :  An Annual Review. V o l s . 1 , 2 , 3 . New York: Downtown r e -search and Development Centers. 1976. p 6 . 30. K i r c h e r . "North American Shopping C e n t e r Development Trends I n The 1980's." p 7 144 CHAPTER 5  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (A) I n t r o d u c t i o n . S i n c e i t i s c l e a r t h a t a lmost none o f the methods ad-v o c a t e d by the t h e o r i s t s f o r l o c a t i n g , and i n t u r n e s t i m a t i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l volume o f s a l e s of a r e t a i l f a c i l i t y has g a i n e d any l e v e l o f acceptance i n the b u s i n e s s w o r l d , a major ob-j e c t i v e o f t h i s s t u d y was t o determine the v a l u e of the t h e o r y o f r e t a i l l o c a t i o n ( s p e c i f i c a l l y the m o d e l i n g app-r o a c h e s ) as a p r a c t i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e t o the methods p r e s e n t l y employed. A r e l a t e d o b j e c t i v e was t o determine whether o r not the v a r i a b l e s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the models, a l o n e were s u f f i c i e n t d e t e r m i n a n t s o f consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . (B) The v a r i a b l e problem. One o f the major problems w i t h o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g r e t a i l l o c a t i o n models i s d e t e r m i n i n g t h e s a l i e n t v a r i a b l e s t o i n -c o r p o r a t e and i n e s t i m a t i n g the we i g h t t h a t each o f them s h o u l d be g i v e n . A l t h o u g h the use o f o n l y s i z e and d i s t a n c e v a r i a b l e s has been the t r a d i t i o n a l l y a c c e p t e d p r a c t i c e , more r e c e n t l y many academics have begun t o f e e l t h a t a l o n e t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s cannot a d e q u a t e l y e x p l a i n the complex d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s of the consumer, and t h e r e f o r e , i n themselves are n o t s u f f i c i e n t f o r the p r e d i c t i o n o f consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . T h i s group o f t h e o r i s t s a d v o c a t e s the a d d i t i o n o f image r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s t o the model. E s s e n t i a l l y t h i s v a r i a b l e would be d e s i g n e d t o take i n t o account the consumer's 145 p e r c e p t i o n o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r and/or i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e s . These p e r c e p t i o n s are s u s p e c t e d t o be based on s uch s t o r e a t t r i b u t e s as s a l e s p e r s o n n e l , v i s u a l appearance, atmos-p h e r e , p r i c e o f goods, e t c . A l t h o u g h t h e r e seems t o be no q u e s t i o n t h a t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s can have an impact on the •consumer's patronage c h o i c e , t h e i r v a l u e as a v a r i a b l e i n a model can be q u e s t i o n e d due t o t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y weak p r e d -i c t i v e c a p a c i t y . One o f the p o s s i b l e r e a s o n s t h a t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s have performed p o o r l y i s t h a t t h e y do n o t seem to c o v e r the domain of v a r i a b l e s t h a t consumers h o l d s a l i e n t . A second r e a s o n i s t h a t consumer s p a t i a l b e h a v i o r , on the whole, i s q u i t e a p o o r l y grounded t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t . How-e v e r , t h i s i s l i k e l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f the f i e l d ' s i n f a n c y , n o t an i n d i c a t i o n o f i t s p o t e n t i a l use v a l u e . I n g e n e r a l though, the r e c e n t s h i f t i n emphasis from the aggregate t o the i n -d i v i d u a l , and from t h e ' d e t e r m i n i s t i c t o the p r o b a b i l i s t i c has been an i m p o r t a n t s t e p i n f u r t h e r i n g our u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f how consumers behave in- a s p a t i a l c o n t e x t . D e s p i t e t h i s move i n the r i g h t d i r e c t i o n , "As y e t . . . r e s e a r c h has n o t p r o -duced a c o h e r e n t body of knowledge t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t l y aug-ments our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of man-environment i n t e r - r e l a t i o n -s h i p s ." 1 The poor p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f the image v a r i a b l e s a l s o stems from the f a c t t h a t the v a l i d i t y of' q u a n t i f y i n g such f a c t o r s i s q u e s t i o n a b l e . I t i s e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o d e r i v e a v a l i d measure t h a t w i l l r e a l i s t i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t a consumer's p e r c e p t i o n o f a g i v e n s t o r e s i n c e many of the 146 f a c t o r s t h a t would comprise t h i s v a r i a b l e cannot be d i r e c t l y q u a n t i f i e d . F o r example, how does one a f f i x a q u a n t i t a t i v e measure t h a t would a d e q u a t e l y r e p r e s e n t a p e r s o n s p e r c e p -t i o n o f a s t o r e ' s atmosphere? A l t h o u g h a number of a t t e m p t s have been made, the r e s u l t s have c o n s i s t a n t l y been l e s s t h a n s a t i s f a c t o r y . When d e a l i n g w i t h the image r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s a t an aggregate l e v e l , the t h e o r i s t s have a l s o e n c o u n t e r e d a g r e a t d e a l of d i f f i c u l t y i n d e t e r m i n i n g the r e l e v a n t con-sumer c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t c o u l d be used t o c l a s s i f y the con-sumer. To date the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s have been h a l f - h e a r t e d a t t e m p t s a t a g g r e g a t i n g the consumer i n t o homogenous groups whereby b e h a v i o r c o u l d be p r e d i c t e d t h r o u g h group membership. The r e s e a r c h e r s have f o c u s e d on r e l a t i n g images and p r e f e r -ences to such s i m p l e v s u b j e c t a t t r i b u t e s as age, s e x , s o c i o -economic s t a t u s , e t c . On the whole th e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s have t o l d v e r y l i t t l e . I n d i v i d u a l s d i f f e r i n so many ways t h a t i t i s u n r e a l i s t i c t o e x pect t h a t such broad g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s c o u l d e x p l a i n much o f the d i f f e r e n c e s i n b e h a v i o r between i n d i v i d u a l s . Thus, s h o r t o f i n d i v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n , i t i s u n c e r t a i n as t o how s u i t a b l e t h e s e v a r i a b l e s are as p a r t o f r e t a i l models, which by t h e i r , v e r y n a t u r e and p u r p o s e , work a t an aggregate l e v e l . I n e s s e n c e , a t t h i s time the i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f image r e -l a t e d v a r i a b l e s i n models does n o t r e a l l y seem j u s t i f i a b l e g i v e n t h a t t h e r e are s t i l l a number o f t h e o r e t i c a l problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i r i n c l u s i o n , and t h a t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s do 14-7 n o t seem t o add much t o the p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f the model. N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t must he s t r e s s e d t h a t t h i s does n o t mean t h a t such f a c t o r s can he i g n o r e d when a t t e m p t i n g t o determine the p o t e n t i a l o f a s i t e . The same h o l d s t r u e f o r the o t h e r v a r i a b l e s d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s work, such as t e n a n t mix, the l o c a t i o n o f the t e n a n t s w i t h i n the m a l l , a c c e s s , e t c . , s i n c e v a r i a b l e s o f t h i s n a t u r e are a l s o s u s -p e c t e d t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the u l t i m a t e s a l e s l e v e l o f the r e t a i l f a c i l i t y . However, a l t h o u g h these con-s i d e r a t i o n s have been mentioned and are b e l i e v e d t o be im-p o r t a n t , the degree o f t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e has n o t a d e q u a t e l y been de t e r m i n e d s i n c e t h e r e has been n e x t t o no s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t i n g o f t h e i r i m p a c t . I t i s f e l t t h a t i t i s such a s p e c t s o f r e t a i l l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s t h a t deserve the a t t e n t i o n o f the academics, f o r i t i s t h e y who are i n the p o s i t i o n o f s o l v i n g a number o f the i n h e r e n t p roblems. I t i s c l e a r t h a t s i n c e t h e s e f a c t o r s s i m p l y cannot be i g n o r e d , but a t the same time are n o t r e a d i l y o r r e l i a b l y q u a n t i f i a b l e , t h e i r i n f l u e n c e must be ac c o u n t e d f o r s u b j e c t i v e l y . Thus i f an a n a l y s t uses a model a t the o u t s e t , h i s p r e d i c t i o n s w i l l have t o be ad-j u s t e d i n o r d e r t o accommodate the n o n - q u a n t i f i a b l e f a c t o r s . Indeed t h i s f o r c e s one t o q u e s t i o n the use o f the model i n the f i r s t p l a c e , p a r t i c u l a r i l y c o n s i d e r i n g i t s f a i r l y s t r i n g -ent d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s . I n e s s e n c e , a more w h o l i s t i c v i e w p o i n t i s r e q u i r e d i f the academics w i s h t o improve the p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e i r methods. 148 (C) Modeling...A p r a c t i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e ? As a g e n e r a l r u l e the models have been used by the t h e o r i s t s i n an e x p l a n i t o r y or d e s c r i p t i v e c a p a c i t y as opposed t o a p r e d i c t i v e one. I n most i n s t a n c e s t h e y have s i m p l y f i t t e d the models t o an e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t y i n o r d e r t o e x p l a i n the o u t l e t ' s p e r f o r m a n c e . However, i t i s the model's p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y t h a t , i s o f i n t e r e s t t o the p r a c -t i t i o n e r s . P r o b a b l y the b e s t means of e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t i n g the p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f the models would be t o a p p l y them t o a proposed s h o p p i n g c e n t e r o r s t o r e , and t h e n check the v a l i d i t y of the p r e d i c t i o n s a f t e r the f a c i l i t y has become an e s t a b l i s h e d a l t e r n a t i v e t o the consumers i n the a r e a . The d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h t h i s t y pe of approach are f o r m i d a b l e . The time span between the two s t a g e s ( p r e d i c -t i o n s and t e s t i n g o f t h o s e p r e d i c t i o n s ) c o u l d be anywhere between two t o e i g h t y e a r s , t h e r e f o r e , a number of u n f o r -seen changes c o u l d have t a k e n p l a c e i n the i n t e r i m . Such changes might i n c l u d e : a new c o m p e t i t i v e c e n t e r b e i n g b u i l t , a new highway, z o n i n g changes, economic r e c e s s i o n / b o o m , an u n e xpected p o p u l a t i o n growth o r d e c l i n e , e t c . N o n e t h e l e s s , some work i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l i f any o b j e c t i v e c o n c l u s i o n s as t o the a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f the models i s t o be drawn. There i s a l s o a p r o blem w i t h the d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r such models. I t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t the average f i r m would be w i l l i n g t o spend the time and the money r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s 149 l e v e l of r e s e a r c h , e s p e c i a l l y i n the case of the more s o p h i s -t i c a t e d models. Of c o u r s e , ' t h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r i l y t r u e o f the s m a l l e r o p e r a t i o n s . I r o n i c a l l y , due t o the l a c k o f e m p i r i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e from t h e i r o t h e r f a c i l i t i e s (a r e s u l t o f the s m a l l number of them), t h i s i s the group f o r which such models would prove t o be the most b e n e f i c i a l . C l e a r l y , b e f o r e t h e s e models w i l l r e c e i v e any r e a s o n a b l e l e v e l o f a p p l i c a t i o n , improved s o u r c e s f o r o b t a i n i n g the r e q u i r e d d a t a must be d e v e l o p e d . L i k e l y the most 's e r i o u s s h o r t c o m i n g t o the m o d e l i n g app-r o a c h t o r e t a i l l o c a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s t h a t i t n e c e s s a r i l y i g -n o r e s p a s t l e a r n i n g e x p e r i e n c e s . Many b e l i e v e t h i s t o be the most v a l u a b l e s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t t t h e a n a l y s t has a t h i s d i s p o s a l . The emphasis i t was g i v e n by the p r a c t i t i o n e r s was c l e a r l y d i s p l a y e d i n the t h i r d c h a p t e r . P a s t l e a r n i n g e x p e r i e n c e s s u p p l y the a n a l y s t w i t h a w e a l t h o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t no amount of s t a t i s t i c a l r e s e a r c h c o u l d r e p l a c e . I t i s a l s o f e l t t h a t the models, i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form, are o n l y a p p l i c a b l e i n suburban s i t u a t i o n s . A l t h o u g h i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t • t h e models are c a p a b l e of p r o d u c i n g s a t i s f a c -t o r y r e s u l t s i n s m a l l town s i t u a t i o n s where t h e r e i s no d i r -e c t c o m p e t i t i o n o t h e r t h a n the c o m m e r c i a l d i s t r i c t o f the downtown, v e r y l i t t l e e m p i r i c a l t e s t i n g has been conducted i n t h i s a r e a ( a t l e a s t wit.h the more r e c e n t m o d e l s ) . How-e v e r , i t i s e q u a l l y l i k e l y t h a t a f a i r amount of a d a p t a t i o n t o the form o f the model would be r e q u i r e d t o make i t s u i t a b l e 150 under such c o n d i t i o n s . As w e l l , i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t the models are n o t v e r y u s e f u l f o r d e t e r m i n i n g the p o t e n t i a l o f a r e t a i l f a c i l i t y i n t he c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t o f l a r g e r c i t i e s . T h i s s i t u a t i o n p r e s e n t s such a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h a n t h e suburbs t h a t the a n a l y s t s i m p l y cannot t r e a t the two the same. F o r i n s t a n c e , one cannot use the s u r r o u n d i n g r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n as a b a s i s f o r e s t i m a t i n g the demand f o r the f a c i l i t y . One o f the main s o u r c e s o f b u s i n e s s i s the downtown o f f i c e worker and v e r y l i t t l e i s known about the patronage p a t t e r n s o f t h i s consumer. C l e a r l y though, f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e and s i z e o f c e n t e r are n o t n e a r l y as i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s t o the downtown consumer. The s u r r -ounding a m e n i t i e s , the downtown i t s e l f , and the t r i p p u r -pose are more prominent c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . I n e s s e n c e , you s i m p l y cannot a n a l y z e a downtown s t o r e o r s h o p p i n g c e n t e r a l o n g the same dime n s i o n s as you would f o r i t s suburban c o u n t e r p a r t . P a r t i a l l y due t o the i n c r e a s i n g l y s a t u r a t e d suburban m a r k e t s , s m a l l e r communities and the downtown o f most major c i t i e s are i n c r e a s i n g l y becoming a major f o c u s o f i n t e r e s t f o r many d e v e l o p e r s . As was mentioned, i t i s i n the s e two s i t u a t i o n s t h a t most models p e r f o r m t h e weakest. I t i s a l s o apparent t h a t the businessmen v i e w t h e p u r -pose o f t h e t r a d e a r e a a n a l y s i s d i f f e r e n t l y t h a n the academ-i c s . Whereas the academics s t r i v e f o r e x a c t n e s s i n the p r e d -151 i c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f such a n a l y s i s , the businessmen v i e w i t s i m p l y as an a i d i n the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . I n e s s -ence, t h e y want t o know the f e a s i b i l i t y o f a s i t e , n o t the e x a c t l e v e l o f s a l e s t h a t can be o b t a i n e d . I n many ways t h i s i s a more r e a l i s t i c v i e w p o i n t s i n c e i t r e a l i z e s t h a t t h e r e are a number o f i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h a t can-not be measured u n t i l w e l l i n t o the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s ( i e t e n a n t mix) and t h a t t h e r e are l i k e l y t o be a number o f u n f o r e s e e n changes i n the market c o n d i t i o n s between the time o f t h e a n a l y s i s and t h e o p ening of the o u t l e t . The d e v e l o p e r s f e e l t h a t because o f the dynamic n a t u r e o f the i n d u s t r y , e x a c t p r e d i c t i o n s are i m p o s s i b l e , and are t h e r e -f o r e not worth t r y i n g t o a c h i e v e . They f e e l i t i s s a f e r t o make c o n s e r v a t i v e e s t i m a t i o n s . The importance o f t h e s e o p p o s i n g v i e w p o i n t s i s paramount, f o r u n l e s s the o b j e c t i v e s o f the d e c i s i o n - m a k e r are c l e a r l y u n d e r s t o o d , d e t e r m i n i n g the a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f the v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e methods i s i m p o s s i b l e . The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f e x a c t s a l e s volume p r e d i c t i o n s t o the d e v e l o p e r becomes even l e s s i m p o r t a n t when one r e a -l i z e s t h a t t h e r e are a number of economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h a t are e x t e r n a l t o the a n a l y s i s i t s e l f t h a t must be made. F o r example, the d e v e l o p e r must c o n s i d e r the p r i c e o f r e n t s charged f o r a p i e c e o f l a n d as w e l l as i t s r e a l e s t a t e v a l u e . He must a l s o c o n s i d e r the p o t e n t i a l l o n g e v i t y of the s i t e . I n e s s e n c e , the academics must view r e t a i l 152 development from a much b r o a d e r p e r s p e c t i v e t h a n t h e y p r e s -e n t l y do. They must r e a l i z e t h a t t h e r e are a v a s t number o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n v o l v e d which g e n e r a l l y i nduce the d e v e l -oper t o p l a y the r o l e o f s a t i s f i c e r . I n o t h e r words, ob-t a i n i n g optimum s a l e s may n o t always be the soundest c r i t -e r i o n f o r s e l e c t i n g a s i t e . I n c o n c l u s i o n , i t can be s a i d t h a t the l o c a t i o n models advocated by the academics have n e x t t o no v a l u e i n the s i t u a t i o n f a c i n g d e v e l o p e r s . The academics appear t o have d e s i g n e d t h e s e methods w i t h v e r y l i t t l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the r e a l i t i e s o f r e t a i l i n g and t h e c o n s t r a i n t s p l a c e d upon the b u s i n e s s w o r l d . They appear t o be t r y i n g t o l o c a t e r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n the d e v e l o p m e n t a l p r o c e s s . I n o t h e r words, t h e y have s t u d i e d one a s p e c t of the p r o c e s s w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r i n g how i t f i t s i n t o the b r o a d e r framework, and as a r e s u l t have produced i m p r a c t i c a l approaches. C l e a r l y , i t i s time f o r the a c a -demics t o r e - e v a l u a t e the d i r e c t i o n t h a t t h e i r r e s e a r c h i s t a k i n g . (D) Recommendations f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . A l t h o u g h t o date the f i e l d o f consumer s p a t i a l be-h a v i o r has added r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e t o the a n a l y s t s a b i l i t y t o p r e d i c t the s a l e s p o t e n t i a l of a r e t a i l f a c i l i t y , w i t h some r e f i n e m e n t i t c o u l d become a v a l u a b l e t o o l . U n t i l the u n d e r l y i n g r e a s o n s f o r the observed s h o p p i n g p a t t e r n s of consumers can be i d e n t i f i e d , p r e d i c t i n g the aggregate 153 s h o p p i n g p a t t e r n s of t h e s e consumers w i l l i n v o l v e a h i g h degree of s u b j e c t i v e judgement. I t i s e s s e n t i a l t o under-s t a n d the n a t u r e o f the consumer's d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s t h a t p r e c e d e s h i s p u r c h a s e . T h i s , i n t u r n , w i l l l e n d a s i g n i f i c a n t degree o f i n s i g h t i n d e t e r m i n i n g where consum-e r s w i l l shop. Much more e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s i s r e q u i r e d i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n . T h i s work c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d the i n a d e q u a c i e s o f u s i n g d i s t a n c e and s i z e o f s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s as the s o l e d e t e r m i n -a n t s of p r e d i c t i n g consumer patronage p a t t e r n s . Some o f the more s a l i e n t f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d t h a t r a r e l y r e c e i v e t h e i r j u s t a t t e n t i o n were: t e n a n t mix, the l o c a t i o n o f the t e n a n t s w i t h i n the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r , a c c e s s i b i l i t y , an a r r a y o f s i t e q u a l i t y f a c t o r s , p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , e t c . A l t h o u g h t h e s e f a c t o r s were i d e n t i f i e d as b e i n g v e r y i m p o r t -a n t , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o determine the degree of t h e i r s i g n i -f i c a n c e . The p r i m a r y r e a s o n f o r t h i s d i f f i c u l t y stems from the l a c k o f e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n c o n d u c t e d i n t h i s r e g a r d . T h i s i s a v o i d i n r e t a i l l o c a t i o n r e s e a r c h t h a t must be f i l l e d . U n t i l some s o r t of s t a t i s t i c a l r e s e a r c h i s c o n d u c t e d i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n , the a n a l y s t ' s p r e d i c t i o n s w i l l r e m a i n h i g h l y sub-j e c t i v e and t h e o r e t i c a l . I t i s a l s o c l e a r t h a t i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t the academics b e g i n t o work i n c l o s e r a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h the b u s i n e s s w o r l d . To do t h i s t h e y must become more s y m p a t h e t i c of the c o n s t r -a i n t s of the i n d u s t r y and more aware o f the o b j e c t i v e s o f 154 t h o s e i n v o l v e d . P o s s i b l y , i n s t e a d o f c o n c e n t r a t i n g a lmost e x c l u s i v e l y on p r o d u c i n g s o p h i s t i c a t e d computer models t h a t are o f l i t t l e o r no use t o the b u s i n e s s w o r l d , i t might prove f r u i t f u l t o make some attempt a t i m p r o v i n g the methods p r e s e n t l y employed by the businessmen. 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What methods do you use t o determine the b o u n d a r i e s of the t r a d e a r e a ? F o r example, r u l e - o f - t h u m b methods such as t e n minute d r i v i n g time or t h r e e m i l e r a d i u s , o r ; i n t e r v i e w / s u r v e y , o r ; some form o f t r a d e a r e a computer model, o r ; the analogue method. 4. How do you c a l c u l a t e the amount o f t r a d e t h a t you expect t o r e c e i v e from w i t h i n the market area? 5. What methods do you use f o r c o l l e c t i n g y o u r data? F o r example, c e n s u s , i n t e r v i e w / s u r v e y , l o c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s , analogous s i t u a t i o n s . 6. How g r e a t o f an e f f e c t does the l e v e l o f income have on the number of peopl e t h a t you ex p e c t w i l l be needed t o s u p p o r t a c e n t e r ? 7. What methods do you use f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e t r e n d s such as l e v e l of p o p u l a t i o n growth and d i r e c t i o n o f expan s i o n ? 8. I n terms o f exposure;.and a c c e s s i b i l i t y , do you have any base r e q u i r e m e n t s when e v a l u a t i n g the a c c e s s r o u t e s ? 9. I n terms o f the s i t e i t s e l f , what type o f f a c t o r s do you g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r as i m p o r t a n t i n the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i -s i o n ? F o r example, s l o p e , shape, e t c . 170 Appendix A - ( c o n t i n u e d ) 10. A l t h o u g h I r e a l i z e t h a t t h e r e i s a h i g h degree of d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i n the r e g u l a t i o n s imposed on d e v e l -opers by the v a r i o u s m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , as a r u l e how d i f f i c u l t i s i t t o g e t an a r e a re-zoned? 11. How do you e s t a b l i s h y o u r t e n a n t mix? 12. Do you s t u d y the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s when es-t a b l i s h i n g your t e n a n t mix? 13. Are t h e r e any g e n e r a l r u l e s r e g a r d i n g the a c t u a l p o s i -t i o n i n g o f the t e n a n t s w i t h i n the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r i t -s e l f ? I n o t h e r words, what type of s t o r e s g e n e r a l l y r e c e i v e the most c e n t r a l p o s i t i o n s , and what type of s t o r e s do you g e n e r a l l y p l a c e t o g e t h e r ? 14. Do you go back a f t e r the c e n t e r has become e s t a b l i s h e d and check as t o how a c c u r a t e y o u r p r e d i c t i o n s or e s t i m a -t i o n s were? 15- Do you f o l l o w any o f the l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o s h o p p i n g c e n t e r development? 16. Do you see any changes i n the f u t u r e t h a t w i l l a f f e c t the way i n which you l o c a t e ? 17. Can you t h i n k o f a n y t h i n g t h a t you t h i n k i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t we have n o t t a l k e d about? 171 APPENDIX B: DEPARTMENT STORE'S QUESTIONNAIRE 172 APPENDIX B;  DEPARTMENT STORE'S QUESTIONNAIRE 1. How i s the p r o c e s s i n i t i a t e d ? I n o t h e r words, do you have p e o p l e out l o o k i n g f o r s i t e s o r are you u s u a l l y approached hy the d e v e l o p e r o r l a n d owner? 2. What i n d i v i d u a l s o r groups c o n t r i b u t e i n the s i t e s e l e c -t i o n p r o c e s s ? 3. What methods do you use t o determine the b o u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d e area? i e Rule-of-thumb methods such as 10 minute d r i v i n g time o r 3 m i l e r a d i u s ; o r a p o r t i o n o f . the d i s t a n c e t o the n e a r e s t c e n t e r ; or i n t e r v i e w / s u r v e y ; or some form o f t r a d e a r e a model; or use o f i n f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d from o t h e r c e n t e r s . 4. How do you c a l c u l a t e t h a amount o f t r a d e t h a t you can expect t o r e c e i v e from w i t h i n the market a r e a ? 5. How g r e a t o f an e f f e c t does the l e v e l o f income have on the number o f p e o p l e t h a t you ex p e c t w i l l be needed t o s u p p o r t a s t o r e ? 6. What methods do you use i n c o l l e c t i n g your data? i e cens u s , i n t e r v i e w or some form o f l o c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e . 7. What method do you use f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e t r e n d s such as l e v e l o f p o p u l a t i o n growth and d i r e c t i o n o f expan s i o n ? 8. I n terms of such f a c t o r s as exposure and a c c e s s i b i l i t y , do you have any base r e q u i r e m e n t s when e v a l u a t i n g the ac c e s s r o u t e s l e a d i n g t o the s i t e s ? Appendix B. ( c o n t i n u e d ) 9. I n terms o f the s i t e i t s e l f , what type o f f a c t o r s do you g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r as i m p o r t a n t i n the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n ( i e s l o p e , shape e t c . ) ? 10 . What b a s i c p o s i t i o n w i t h i n the m a l l do you g e n e r a l l y p r e f e r , b oth i n terms of a c t u a l p o s i t i o n and i n terms of r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n ? By t h i s I mean what type o f s t o r e s do you p r e f e r i n your immediate p r o x i m i t y ? 11. Due t o the p o t e n t i a l f o r comparison s h o p p i n g , do you f e e l t h a t a n o t h e r department s t o r e , or a s a t e l l i t e t e n a n t s e l l i n g s i m i l a r goods i n c r e a s e s y o u r s a l e s l e v e l above what i t might be i n a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e ? 12. Do you s t u d y the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (age, i n -come, l i f e s t y l e s e t c . ) t o any degree p r i o r t o making your l o c a t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s ? 13. Are your s t o r e l o c a t i o n s p l a n n e d as s o r t o f a network or system? I n other--words , w i l l you p u r p o s e l y l o c a t e due t o the r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n o f one o f your o t h e r s t o r e s i n o r d e r t o c r e a t e an a l i g n m e n t t h a t w i l l d i m i n i s h as much as p o s s i b l e the e n t r y o f a c o m p e t i t i v e o u t l e t ? 14. I s t h e r e any o t h e r l o c a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y you use t o combat c o m p e t i t i o n ? F o r example, i f a m a l l goes up somewhat p r e m a t u r e l y , w i l l you go i n even a t the r i s k o f l o o s i n g money f o r a few y e a r s i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h y o u r s e l f ? 15• Under what c i r c u m s t a n c e s would you p r e f e r a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e t o a m a l l ? 174 Appendix B. ( c o n t i n u e d ) l 6 . Do you go Pack a f t e r your s t o r e has become e s t a b l i s h e d and check as t o how a c c u r a t e your p r e d i c t i o n s and/or e s t i m a t i o n s were? 17- Do you see any changes i n the f u t u r e t h a t w i l l a f f e c t the way you l o c a t e y o u r s t o r e s ? 18. Do you f o l l o w any o f the l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o the methods of r e t a i l l o c a t i o n ? 19» Can you t h i n k o f a n y t h i n g o f importance t h a t we have not t a l k e d about? APPENDIX C: CONSULTANT'S QUESTIONNAIRE 176 APPENDIX C:  CONSULTANT'S QUESTIONNAIRE 1. What methods do you use t o determine the b o u n d a r i e s of the t r a d e a r e a ( p r i m a r y , s e c o n d a r y and t e r t i a r y ) ? 2. How do you c a l c u l a t e the amount o f t r a d e t h a t you can can e x pect t o r e c e i v e from w i t h i n the market a r e a ? 3. How g r e a t o f an e f f e c t does the l e v e l o f income have on the number of p e o p l e t h a t you e x pect w i l l be needed t o s u p p o r t a c e n t e r ? 4. What are t h e s o u r c e s o f y o u r d a t a , i e c e n s u s , i n t e r v i e w , o r some form of l o c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e ? 5. What methods do you use f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e t r e n d s such as l e v e l o f p o p u l a t i o n growth and d i r e c t i o n o f e x p a n s i o n ? 6. I n terms of such f a c t o r s as exposure and a c c e s s i b i l i t y , do you have any base r e q u i r e m e n t s when e v a l u a t i n g t h e a c c e s s r o u t e s l e a d i n g t o t h e s i t e s ? 7. I n terms of the s i t e i t s e l f , what t y p e s of f a c t o r s do you g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r as b e i n g the most i m p o r t a n t i n ' the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n ( i e s l o p e , shape etc.)'? 8. Do you assume a n y t h i n g about th e t e n a n t mix when d e t e r -m i n i n g the f e a s i b i l i t y o f the c e n t e r , i e the theme? 9- Do you g e n e r a l l y make any recommendations as t o the d e s i r e d t e n a n t mix? 10. Do you go back a f t e r the c e n t e r has become e s t a b l i s h e d and check as t o how a c c u r a t e your p r e d i c t i o n s or e s t i m a -t i o n s were? •1.77 Appendix C. ( c o n t i n u e d ) 11. Do you f o l l o w any o f the l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o s h o p p i n g c e n t e r development? 12. Do you see any changes i n the f u t u r e t h a t w i l l e f f e c t the way t h a t you l o c a t e ? 13. Can you t h i n k o f a n y t h i n g i m p o r t a n t t h a t we have n o t t a l k e d about? APPENDIX D: SUPERMARKET'S QUESTIONNAIRE 179 APPENDIX D:  SUPERMARKET'S QUESTIONNAIRE 1. How i s the p r o c e s s i n i t i a t e d ? I n o t h e r words, do you have peop l e out l o o k i n g f o r s i t e s o r are you g e n e r a l l y approached hy the d e v e l o p e r / l a n d o w n e r ? 2. What i n d i v i d u a l s o r groups c o n t r i b u t e i n the s i t e s e l e c -t i o n p r o c e s s ? 3. What methods do you use t o determine the b o u n d a r i e s o f the t r a d e area? i e Rule-of-thumb methods such as 10 minute d r i v i n g time o r 3 m i l e r a d i u s ; o r a p o r t i o n o f the d i s t a n c e t o the n e a r e s t c o m p e t i t i o n ; o r i n t e r v i e w / s u r v e y ; o r some form o f t r a d e a r e a model; or use o f i n -f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d from o t h e r c e n t e r s . 4 . How do you c a l c u l a t e the amount o f t r a d e t h a t you can expect t o r e c e i v e from w i t h i n the market area? 5- Do you s t u d y the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (age, i n -come, l i f e s t y l e s e t c . ) t o any degree p r i o r t o making your l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n ? 6. How g r e a t o f an e f f e c t does the l e v e l o f income have on the number of pe o p l e t h a t you expect w i l l be needed t o s u p p o r t a s t o r e ? 7. What methods do you use i n c o l l e c t i n g y o u r data? i e c e n s u s , i n t e r v i e w , o r some form o f l o c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e . 8 . What methods do you use f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e t r e n d s such as l e v e l o f p o p u l a t i o n growth and d i r e c t i o n o f exp a n s i o n ? •180 Appendix D ( c o n t i n u e d ) 9. I n terms o f exposure and a c c e s s i b i l i t y , do you have any base r e q u i r e m e n t s when e v a l u a t i n g the a c c e s s r o u t e l e a d i n g t o the s i t e s ? 10. I n terms o f the s i t e i t s e l f , what type o f f a c t o r s do you g e n e r a l l y c o n s i d e r as i m p o r t a n t i n the l o c a -t i o n a l d e c i s i o n , i e s l o p e , shape e t c . ? 11. Are your s t o r e l o c a t i o n s p l a n n e d as s o r t o f a n e t -• work o r system? I n o t h e r words, w i l l you p u r p o s e l y l o c a t e one s t o r e due t o t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n o f one of y our o t h e r s t o r e s so as t o c r e a t e an a l i g n m e n t t h a t w i l l d i m i n i s h as much as p o s s i b l e the e n t r y o f a c o m p e t i t i v e o u t l e t ? 12. W i l l you l o c a t e i n an a r e a p r e m a t u r e l y i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h y o u r s e l f ? 13- Under what c i r c u m s t a n c e s do you p r e f e r a f r e e s t a n d i n g s t r u c t u r e t o a m a l l ? 14. Do you go back a f t e r y o u r s t o r e has become e s t a b l i s h e d and check as t o how a c c u r a t e your p r e d i c t i o n s and/or e s t i m a t i o n s were? 15. Do you see any changes i n the f u t u r e t h a t w i l l a f f e c t the way you l o c a t e your s t o r e s ? 16. Do you f o l l o w any o f the l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g t o the methods o f l o c a t i n g s u p e r m a r k e t s ? 17- Can you t h i n k o f a n y t h i n g o f importance t h a t we have not t a l k e d about? 181 APPENDIX Es RETAIL TRADE AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS TABLE E - l PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH IN A TRADE AREA P r i m a r y Zone Secondary Zone T o t a l Trade A r e a Average a n n u a l -Average annual Average Year P o p u l a t i o n change P o p u l a t i o n change P o p u l a t i o n % changi 1971 79,334 3,428 82,762 1976 120,323 + 8.7 4,496 + . 5.6 124,819 + 8.6 1977 128,440 + 6.7 4,920 + 9.4 133,360 + 6.8 1980 180,785 + 12.1 10,505 + 28.8 191,290 + 12.8 1983 196,734 + 2.9 16,800 + 16.9 213,534 + 3-7 1986 198,384 + .3 23,486 + 11.8 221,870 + 1.3 1991 200,574 + .2 35,500 + 8.6 236,074 + 1.2 ( S o u r c e : I n t e r v i e w s ) 1—1 CO 183 I n terms o f the average % change i n the p o p u l a t i o n o f each o f the zones, some c l e a r t r e n d s can he seen i n T a b l e E - l . F i r s t o f f , t h e r e i s a d r a m a t i c p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e between the base y e a r o f 1977 and 1980. The r e a s o n f o r t h i s i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n b e i n g of a f a i r l y s i g n i f i c a n t magnitude i s e x p l a i n e d through the f a c t t h a t a number o f new h o u s i n g s t a r t s are s l a t e d f o r the y e a r s between t h e s e two d a t e s . T h i s i n c r e a s e i s p a r t i c u l a r i l y marked i n the secondary zone o f t h i s c e n t e r ' s t r a d e a r e a due t o the attempt by the a u t h o r i -t i e s o f t h i s c i t y t o d e c e n t r a l i z e p o p u l a t i o n growth. A f t e r the y e a r 1980 t h e r a t e o f growth drops c o n s i d e r a b l y , a l t h o u g h s t i l l r e m a i n i n g p o s i t i v e . The two r e a s o n s g i v e n f o r t h i s l e v e l i n g o f p o p u l a t i o n growth a r e : l ) The a r e a s w i t h i n the i n f l u e n c e o f the s h o p p i n g c e n t e r a re b e g i n n i n g t o become develo p e d t o i t s f u l l p o t e n t i a l ( u n l e s s the z o n i n g r e s t r i c -t i o n s are changed t o a l l o w f o r more h i g h d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l d e velopment), and; 2) A d e s i r e t o keep the e s t i m a t e s on the c o n s e r v a t i v e s i d e s i n c e the l o n g e r the term o f p r o j e c t i o n , the more u n c e r t a i n the e s t i m a t e s a r e . O f t e n t i m e s though, a company w i l l want such p r o j e c t i o n s broken down i n t o a l i t t l e more d e t a i l . T h i s breakdown w i l l o f t e n be based on age s i n c e i t has such a s t r o n g impact on the damand f o r r e t a i l f a c i l i t i e s . T a b l e E-2 i s an example o f such a breakdown. 'TABLE E-2 BRITISH COLUMBIA POPULATION PROJECTION SCHOOL DISTRICT #26 NORTH THOMPSON HISTORICAL YEARS 1966 1971 1976 1979 BIRTHS 47 95 117 139 AGE 0-4 371 385 475 619 5-9 394 425 490 495 10-14 301 420 550 556 15-19 227 320 510 569 20-24 188 305 455 571 25-29 200 283 470 550 30-34 215 252 365 467 35-39 184 207 300 338 40-44 165 178 275 318 45-49 142 163 195 236 50-54 122 143 . 185 180 55-59 106 130 135 154 60-64 80 95 135 123 65-69 46 M 90 96 70 + 68 75 90 127 TOTAL 2,809 3,^26 4,720 5,406 ( S o u r c e : Based on B.C. R e s e a r c h P o p u l a t S t a t i s t i c s Canada June 1 Census D a t a , B.i Of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s C a l e n d a r Year Data.) 1981 1983 1985 1991 1996 2001 156 175 195 232 225 247 732 845 952 1159 1130 1240 522 617 735 1076 1231 1202 549 540 549 847 1127 1289 589 591 587 597 886 1180 636 666 679 645 643 952 603 678 747 785 724 719 537 593 648 854 854 788 374 446 526 715 897 900 3^3 359 383 586 729 912 268 302 335 413 604 755 196 223 258 362 424 623 168 174 I83 272 357 421 116 130 150 185 266 351 96 96 99 150 177 257 154 176 195 232 346 412 5,881 6,435 7,023 8,877 10,395 12,002 on Model, . D i v i s i o n 

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