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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Technological change and women’s labour force participation in less developed countries Basu, Leslirae 1982

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c • 1 T E C H N O L O G I C A L C H A N G E AND W O M E N ' S L A B O U R F O R C E P A R T I C I P A T I O N I N L E S S D E V E L O P E D C O U N T R I E S b y L E S L I R A E B A S U B . M a t h . , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f W a t e r l o o , 1 9 7 8 M . A . , C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 8 2 A T H E S I S S U B M I T T E D I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L M E N T OF T H E R E Q U I R E M E N T S FOR THE D E G R E E OF M A S T E R OF S C I E N C E (in Business Aclministration) i n .. T H E F A C U L T Y OF G R A D U A T E S T U D I E S ( F a c u l t y o f C o m m e r c e a n d B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ) We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d . T H E U N I V E R S I T Y OF B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A MAY 1 9 8 2 © L e s l i r a e B a s u , 1 9 8 2 . I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e h e a d o f my d e p a r t m e n t o r by h i s o r h e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 1956 Main Mall V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1Y3 D a t e @f*^l ZH /9S3L DE-6 (.3/81) A B S T R A C T T h i s s t u d y a t t e m p t s t o e x a m i n e t h e e f f e c t s o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e o n w o m e n ' s l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a s i m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n m o d e l , u s i n g c r o s s s e c t i o n a l d a t a f o r t h i r t e e n I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s d u r i n g t h e l a t t e r h a l f o f t h e 1 9 6 0 ' s w a s u s e d . T h e l i t e r a t u r e s u r v e y o u t l i n e s h o w t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s m a y h a v e e i t h e r p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e e f f e c t u p o n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f w o m e n w o r k e r s i n i n d i v i d u a l s e c t o r s . H o w e v e r t h e o v e r a l l e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s o n a n a g r i c u l t u r a l l y - b a s e d e c o n o m y i s t o c a u s e a c h a n g e i n t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e e c o n o m y a n d a r i s e i n t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f u r b a n b a s e d i n d u s t r i e s . T h i s l e a d s t o a s e p a r a t i o n o f w o m e n f r o m p r o d u c t i o n , a n d a d e c l i n e i n t h e o v e r a l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e o f w o m e n . T h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s s t u d y s h o w t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e c a n h a v e a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t o n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f w o m e n i n i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s ; t h a t f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s a n d i n c r e a s i n g c a p i t a l / l a b o u r r a t i o a l s o h a v e p o s i t i v e i m p a c t s o n w o m e n ' s p a r t i c i p a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , i t i s f o u n d t h a t t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r f r o m f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s w a s p o s i t i v e l y a n d s i g n i f i c a n t l y l i n k e d t o t e c h n i c a l p r o g r e s s i n I n d i a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g i n t h e l a t e 1 9 6 0 s . TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT Page i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page i v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Page v INTRODUCTION Page 2 CHAPTER ONE: LITERATURE SURVEY 1.1 T e c h n o l o g y ' s Power and P o t e n t i a l Page 8 1.2 T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r and t h e M u l t i n a t i o n a l s ' R o l e Page 11 1.3 Women's L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t G o a l s Page 23 1.1 E f f e c t o f T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change and t h e D e v e l o p m e n t P r o c e s s on Women's L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n Page 36 CHAPTER TWO: THE THEORTICAL MODEL 2.1 The H y p o t h e s e s Page 45 2. 1 The M o d e l Page 4 6 CHAPTER THREE: DATA 3.1 D e s c r i p t i o n Page 56 3.2 M e a s u r e m e n t and S o u r c e s o f V a r i a b l e s Page 57 CHAPTER FOUR: THE FINAL MODEL 4.1 The E m p i r i c a l M o d e l Page 64 4.2 I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Page 65 CHAPTER F I V E : RESULTS 5.1 Summary R e g r e s s i o n R e s u l t s Page 67 5.2 D e t a i l e d R e s u l t s o f t h e R e g r e s s i o n s Page 68 CHAPTER S I X : DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 6.1 D a t a Page 71 6.2 T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change Page 74 6.3 Women's P a r t i c i p a t i o n Page 77 6.4 F o r e i g n B u s i n e s s and Women's P a r t i c i p a t i o n Page 87 CHAPTER SEVEN: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Page 89 BIBLIOGRAPHY Page 92 APPENDIX ONE: THE WU TEST FOR EXOGENEITY Page 98 APPENDIX TWO: DATA TABLES Page 100 A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S I w o u l d l i k e t o a c k n o w l e d g e s o m e o f t h e p e o p l e w h o h e l p e d m e : P r o f e s s o r J a n S v e j n a r f o r s u g g e s t i o n s w h i l e f o r m u l a t i n g t h e m o d e l , M s . G l o r i a S p a r k s f o r a l l h e r e n c o u r a g e m e n t , a n d h e r e x t e n s i v e a s s i s t a n c e i n d e a l i n g w i t h , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r o b l e m s f r o m a f a r , P r o f e s s o r S a n d r a S c h w a r t z f o r h e r i n t e r e s t , P r o f e s s o r J . W . C . T o m 1 i n s o n , my a d v i s o r , f o r h i s p a t i e n c e a :i a c a r e f u l r e a d i n g , P r o f e s s o r E r i k T h o r b e c k e , my P h . D . c ha i m a n f o r h i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t r i e t i n e c o n s t r a i n t s o f w o r k i n g o n t wo t h e s i s a t o n c e , My p a r e n t s f o r l o o k i n g a f t e r my d a u g h t e r w h e n I w a s f i n i s h i n g t h e f i r s t d r a f t o f t n i s t h e s i s , My h u s b a n d , S r e e m a y , f o r h i s s u p p o r t , s u g g e s t i o n s a n d 1: e 1 p i n e d i t i n g e v e n w h e n i n t h e l a s t f r a n t i c s t a g e s o f h i s o w n d i s s e r t a t i o n , My d a u g h t e r . D e w , f o r p u t t i n g u p w i t h me w h e n 1 h a d n o t i n e t o a i v e h e r a t t e n t i o n . if P a g e 1 m i s s e d i n n u m b e r i n g . i v a PAGE 2 INTRODUCTION P a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e has r e c e i v e d a l o t o f a t t e n t i o n i n r e c e n t y e a r s i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . I t i s commonly b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f e c o n o m i c a l l y a c t i v e women i s h i g h e r i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t h a n i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d o n e s . The q u e s t i o n s w h i c h s p a r k e d i n i t i a l i n t e r e s t i n u n d e r t a k i n g t h i s s t u d y w e r e : I s t h e h i g h e r f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o r o f d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l t r a d i t i o n s ? How i m p o r t a n t i s t e c h n o l o g y r e l a t i v e t o c u l t u r e and how do t h e s e i n t e r a c t ? The l a s t t w e n t y y e a r s has se e n a v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e West. Y e t i n 1976, t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e o f C a n a d i a n women 15-24 y e a r s o f age was a b o u t 5 7% w h i l e i n 1961, 20-24 y e a r o l d r u r a l I n d i a n women had a p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e o f 49%. I n t h e e a r l y s i x t i e s , i t a p p e a r s t h a t 'Crude L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n R a t e s f o r F e m a l e s ' d i d n o t d i f f e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y b etween t h e T h i r d W o r l d and t h e more d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . At t h a t t i m e , i n N e p a l t h i s f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e was 36.5%, f o r t h e USA, 30.2%, f o r I n d i a 2 7 . 9 % , f o r PAGE 3 S o u t h K o r e a 2 3 . 4% and f o r . Canada 2 2 . 3 % . * The main d i f f e r e n c e s l i e i n t h e t y p e o f e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s i n w h i c h women a r e e n g a g e d . Of t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k f o r c e i n N e p a l i n 1960-61, 41.8% were women, i n I n d i a 35.6%, i n M a l a y s i a 34%. In 1971-72, i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a c o m p a r a b l e f i g u r e was 17.4% and f o r Can a d a , 1 3 . 7 % . * * I n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and Ca n a d a , most o f t h e e c o n o m i c a l l y a c t i v e women i n t h a t decade were e m p l o y e e s ( 9 3 . 9 % i n Canada and 9 3 . 8 % i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ) , w h e r e a s o n l y 5 7.6% were e m p l o y e e s i n M a l a y s i a , 2 7 . 8 % i n S o u t h K o r e a , and 2 5 . 1 % i n I n d i a . T h i s d i f f e r e n c e b e t w een N o r t h and S o u t h i n o c c u p a t i o n s i s a c c e n t u a t e d when i t i s r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e e c o n o m i c a l l y a c t i v e f i g u r e s do not i n c l u d e c u l t i v a t o r s i n p u r e l y s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e . The q u e s t i o n t h e n a r i s e s w h e t h e r t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n have any e f f e c t on women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n and s t a t u s , o r r a t h e r on t h e t y p e o f e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s i n w h i c h women a r e e n g a g e d . I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t t h a t a l a r g e r p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e w o r k i n g women w i l l be engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s w h i c h have a g r i c u l t u r a l l y b a s e d e c o n o m i e s t h a n i n t h e more d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . In t h a t c a s e , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o a s s e s s w h e t h e r t e c h n o l o g i c a l change has a d i f f e r e n t i m p a c t on women t h a n on men as a g r i c u l t u r e d e c l i n e s i n i m p o r t a n c e and a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n o f b o t h men and women * E l i s e B o u l d i n g , Handbook o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l D a t a on Women pp. 27 - 28. * * I b i d , pp. 53-54. PAGE 4 a r e e m p l o y e d i n i t . I n s p i t e o f h a v i n g a c c e s s t o one o f t h e b e s t A s i a n l i b r a r i e s i n N o r t h A m e r i c a , t h e Wason c o l l e c t i o n a t C o r n e l l , i t was v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o c o l l e c t d a t a f o r an e m p i r i c a l s t u d y . A y e a r a f t e r b e g i n n i n g t o c o l l e c t d a t a , f o u r c o u n t r i e s had been c l o s e l y e x a m i n e d and had y i e l d e d o n l y one c o m p l e t e d a t a s e t c o n s i s t i n g o f j u s t t h i r t e e n o b s e r v a t i o n s . The f i r s t a t t e m p t t o f i n d d a t a w i t h w h i c h t o e x a m i n e some o f t h e s e q u e s t i o n s , began w i t h M a l a y s i a . T h i s was an LDC w i t h a s t i l l s u b s t a n t i a l r e l i a n c e on i t s a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r and n o t h i g h l y i n d u s t r i a l i z e d . T h e r e was a l a r g e amount o f d e t a i l e d d a t a a v a i l a b l e on women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , work h i s t o r i e s , wages, m i g r a t i o n , f a m i l y l i f e , f e r t i l i t y , e t c . , from a F a m i l y L i f e S u r v e y by RAND. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n was by o c c u p a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n by i n d u s t r y , so t h i s c o u l d n o t be c o m b i n e d w i t h o t h e r d a t a s o u r c e s s u c h as o f f i c i a l s t a t i s t i c s . An a t t e m p t was t h e n made t o c o l l e c t t h e d a t a f r o m M a l a y s i a n I n d u s t r y S u r v e y s , C e n s u s e s and o t h e r s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s b u t d a t a c o n c e r n i n g s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s had o n l y r e c e n t l y begun t o be c o l l e c t e d . As a r e s u l t , i n o r d e r t o g e t a m i n i m a l number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l change had t o be measured o v e r two y e a r i n t e r v a l s . T h i s was i n a p p r o p r i a t e as c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n and o t h e r f a c t o r s i n c l u d e d i n t h e ' r e s i d u a l ' measure o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , PAGE 5 loomed too l a r g e i n comparison w i t h the a c t u a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l change. C o n s e q u e n t l y , the r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s had no s i g n i f i c a n c e . The next c o u n t r y atempted was Korea. I t was b e l i e v e d t h a t Korea was not so h i g h l y developed as to be non-r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of LDCs, yet was l i k e l y t o have a c o m p a r a t i v e l y good s t a t i s t i c a l base. In a d d i t i o n , i t had e x p e r i e n c e d q u i t e h i g h growth and so i t was l i k e l y t h a t s u b s t a n t i a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s had o c c u r r e d over the pas t 20 y e a r s . Korea d i d have w e l l o r g a n i z e d data on most of the i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s s t r e t c h i n g back a good number of y e a r s . However, w h i l e t h e r e was s u b s t a n t i a l data on f o r e i g n a i d , n o t h i n g i n E n g l i s h r e g a r d i n g f o r e i g n ownership or investment by  i n d u s t r y c o u l d be uncovered e i t h e r i n the Wason c o l l e c t i o n or i n the L i b r a r y of Congress. Taiwan was the next c h o i c e , as t h e r e was some resemblence to the Korean case but at a h i g h e r l e v e l of development. As t h e r e i s a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between the l e v e l of development, and the q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y of p u b l i s h e d s t a t i s t i c s , i t was worth a t r y ! E x a c t l y the same problem r e g a r d i n g f o r e i g n ownership and investment by i n d u s t r y emerged however. PAGE 6 Two p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h i s very n o t i c e a b l e gap i n o t h e r w i s e very good data sources suggest t h e m s e l v e s . The f i r s t i s t h a t the p r e v a i l i n g development t h e o r i e s and co n c e p t s i n the s e two c o u n t r i e s had not yet i n c o r p o r a t e d f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t and ownership as i m p o r t a n t to t h e i r n a t i o n a l economies. But g i v e n the r e l i a n c e of both c o u n t r i e s on f o r e i g n a i d and i n v e s t m e n t , and the l e v e l s of a i d and investment which had taken p l a c e i n the p a s t , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o b e l i e v e t h i s was not c o n s i d e r e d i m p o r t a n t enough to c o l l e c t data about. The more r a d i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n might be t h a t because the r o l e of f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t and ownership was so s i g n i f i c a n t , v e s t e d i n t e r e s t s p r e f e r r e d t h a t i t not be too c l o s e l y i n v e s t i g a t e d . In Canada, f o r example, r e v e l a t i o n of the e x t e n t of f o r e i g n ownership of i n d u s t r y has produced c o n s i d e r a b l e p o p u l a r concern and even resentment (though t h i s has r e s u l t e d i n l i t t l e a c t i o n ) . The f i n a l c h o i c e was I n d i a . There i s known to be a l a r g e amount of s t a t i s t i c s c o l l e c t e d by v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s i n I n d i a and a l e s s r e c e p t i v e , or at l e a s t , a government l e s s f o r t u n a t e i n being a b l e to a t t r a c t l a r g e (per c a p i t a ) l e v e l s of f o r e i g n investment and a i d . I t was not l i k e l y I n d i a would be b a s h f u l about p u b l i s h i n g such d a t a . I n d i a n data was c e r t a i n l y not w i t h o u t i t s problems. A l a r g e volume of data e x i s t s , l a r g e l y u n c o - o r d i n a t e d , g e n e r a l l y not PAGE 7 c o n s i s t e n t o v e r t i m e and prone t o u s i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s not c o m p a r a b l e from one s o u r c e t o the n e x t . However, i t was f i n a l l y p o s s i b l e t o c o n s t r u c t a s m a l l c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l d a t a s e t f o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n the l a t e s i x t i e s . An economy-wide time s e r i e s d a t a s e t d i d not p r o v e f e a s i b l e . The e m p i r i c a l component o f t h i s s t u d y i s t h e r e f o r e based on (and l i m i t e d by) t h i s s m a l l I n d i a n d a t a s e t . CHAPTER ONE LITERATURE SURVEY PAGE 8 1.1 T e c h n o l o g y ' s Power and P o t e n t i a l T e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i s an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f LDCs. However, i t s i m p a c t i s c o m p l e x . I t i s o b v i o u s t h a t i t c a n c o n t r i b u t e t o i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i v i t y . B u t n o t o n l y can i t c r e a t e w e a l t h , i t can a l t e r r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n s and make c h a n g e s i n s o c i e t y i t s e l f . T o t a l e mployment o p p o r t u n i t i e s may be i n c r e a s e d o r d e c r e a s e d by a p a r t i c u l a r i n n o v a t i o n . The e f f e c t on any p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p t h o u g h , may n o t be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e o v e r a l l e f f e c t . E n t i r e s e t s ' o f p e o p l e who have t r a d i t i o n a l l y h a n d l e d p a r t i c u l a r t a s k s may be d i s p l a c e d by a d i f f e r e n t g r o u p . R e l a t i v e e c o n o m i c o p p o r t u n i t i e s , employment and even p o l i t i c a l power can be r e d i s t r i b u t e d by t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . An o f t e n o v e r l o o k e d f a c t o r i s t h e e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h ange upon s o c i e t y ' s v a l u e s . As D e n i s G o u l e t p o i n t s o u t , t e c h n o l o g y i s not v a l u e - f r e e . Embedded i n W e s t e r n t e c h n o l o g y a r e s u c h v a l u e s a s : 1) A r e d u c t i o n i s t a p p r o a c h t o r a t i o n a l i t y ( a s oppos e d t o a s y n t h e t i c a p p r o a c h t o t r u t h ) . , 2) E q u a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i v i t y w i t h e f f i c i e n c y , i g n o r i n g e x t e r n a l i t i e s . An example i s t h e r e p e t i t i v e n e s s and n a r r o w n e s s t h a t modern t e c h n o l o g y i m p o s e s upon many j o b s . PAGE 9 T h i s has been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l i e n a t i o n . W e s t e r n t e c h n o l o g y ' s i n c r e a s e s i n m a t e r i a l p r o d u c t i v i t y have o f t e n been g a i n e d a t t h e e x p e n s e o f c r e a t i v e f o r c e s o f w o r k e r s and t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w i t h t h e i r l a b o u r . 3) An a t t i t u d e o f c o n q u e r i n g n a t u r e r a t h e r t h a n h a r m o n i z i n g w i t h i t . T e c h n o l o g y , i n b e s t o w i n g f r e e d o m , has l a r g e l y d i s p l a c e d n a t u r e i n i t s power o v e r human l i f e i n i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , '... homage ( i s p a i d ) t o t e c h n o l o g y i n s t e a d o f n a t u r e ' * . I f t o o h i g h a v a l u e i s p l a c e d upon t e c h n o l o g y , i t c r e a t e s a d r i v e t o a c h i e v e w h a t e v e r i s w i t h i n r e a c h r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e u l t i m a t e c o n s e q u e n c e s . 4) E n c o u r a g e m e n t o f a c h i e v e m e n t o r i e n t a t i o n . In c o n t r a s t w i t h many W e s t e r n s o c i e t i e s , t h e v a l u e s o f many c u l t u r e s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d were p a r t i a l l y s haped by t h e f a c t t h a t r e s o u r c e s were l i m i t e d and c o u l d n o t be s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e d i n a g e n e r a t i o n . ' I n o r d e r t h a t s o c i e t y w o u l d n o t d e g e n e r a t e i n t o a ' z e r o sum game', i t was n e c e s s a r y t o c u r b t h e a c q u i s i t i v e s p i r i t . The i m p a c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change w i t h i t s embedded a n t i t h i c a l v a l u e s t e n d s '... t o s h a t t e r t h e f r a g i l e web w h i c h b i n d s a l l t h e v a l u e s o f p r e m o d e r n c o m m u n i t i e s i n t o a m e a n i n g f u l w h o l e 1 .* * * D e n i s G o u l e t , The U n c e r t a i n P r o m i s e ,p 32. »»Ibid, p. 20. PAGE 10 The q u e s t i o n o f v a l u e s and e q u i t y a r e a l s o l i n k e d . I t i s e a s i e r t o r a i s e a s p i r a t i o n s than t o i n c r e a s e r e s o u r c e s and even w i t h i n c r e a s e d r e s o u r c e s , the s u r v i v i n g s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s and n o r m a t i v e s t r u c t u r e s may not be a b l e t o l i m i t the e x t e n t t o w h i c h the i n c r e a s e s a r e a p p r o p r i a t e d by t h e few a t the expense o f the r e s t . In summary, t e c h n o l o g y i s a t o o l f o r r a i s i n g p r o d u c t i v i t y , i t i s a t o o l which can be used by i t s owners t o e x e r c i s e v a r i o u s forms o f s o c i a l c o n t r o l , i t can d e c i s i v e l y a f f e c t modes o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g and i t i s l i n k e d t o a l i e n a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f a f f l u e n t s o c i e t i e s . T e c h n o l o g y , b e i n g a p o w e r f u l t o o l , must be p r o p e r l y c o n t r o l l e d i f i t i s t o y i e l d net t o t a l b e n e f i t s i n s t e a d o f s o c i a l damage. The e s s e n s e o f t h a t c o n t r o l l i e s i n a s o c i e t y c r i t i c a l l y d e t e r m i n i n g i t s v a l u e s • and g o a l s and s e l e c t i n g the a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n o l o g y which t a k e s f u l l y i n t o a c c o u n t a l l e x t e r n a l i t i e s , not j u s t p r o d u c t i o n e f f i c i e n c i e s . PAGE 11 1.2 T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r and t h e M u l t i n a t i o n a l s ' R o l e The t e r m T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r i s u s u a l l y u sed i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t r a n s p l a n t a t i o n o f t e c h n o l o g y f r o m d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t o l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , and t h i s i s how t h e t e r m w i l l be u s e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h i s p a p e r . However, i t can as e a s i l y r e f e r t o movements i n t h e o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n , t o t h o s e between d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , between l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , o r t o t h o s e w i t h i n a s i n g l e c o u n t r y but between s e c t o r s , i n d u s t r i e s or f i r m s . S u p p l i e r s o f t r a n s f e r r e d t e c h n o l o g y i n c l u d e f o r e i g n f i r m s , f o r e i g n r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s , g o v e r n m e n t a l a g e n c i e s , u n i v e r s i t i e s , v o l u n t a r y a g e n c i e s , f o u n d a t i o n s , l a b o u r u n i o n s , p r o f e s s i o n a l a s s o c i a t i o n s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g e n c i e s and a c a d e m i e s o f s c i e n c e . In a c t u a l p r a c t i c e , most f r e q u e n t l y and most c o n t r o v e r s i a l l y , t h i s r o l e i s f i l l e d by M u l t i n a t i o n a l C o r p o r a t i o n s . M u l t i n a t i o n a l s a r e p r i m a r i l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h p r e s e n t and f u t u r e p r o f i t s . They t r y t o e n s u r e t h e i r f u t u r e p r o f i t a b i l i t y by m a i n t a i n i n g t h e i r c o m p e t i t i v e a d v a n t a g e . A m u l t i n a t i o n a l may t r a n s f e r t e c h n o l o g y i n i m p l e m e n t i n g a s t r a t e g y o f s p a t i a l l y d i f f e r e n t i a t e d m a r k e t s . The more c o n t r o l t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l has o v e r t h e t r a n s f e r r e d t e c h n o l o g y , t h e b e t t e r i t can p r o t e c t i t s c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n and have f r e e d o m t o move when an i n v e s t m e n t no l o n g e r a p p e a r s a t t r a c t i v e . PAGE 12 Though t h e - p r i c e charged f o r t e c h n o l o g y by m u l t i n a t i o n a l s may be h i g h , t h i s i s not an i m p o r t a n t source of revenue f o r them. The more i m p o r t a n t elements of such a d e c i s i o n are the e f f e c t s the s a l e of t e c h n o l o g y w i l l have upon the f i r m ' s s t r a t e g i c m a r k e t i n g p o s i t i o n . A f i r m may d e s i r e t o keep out c o m p e t i t o r s , g a i n a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of l o c a l market c o n d i t i o n s or d i v e r s i f y a p r o d u c t l i n e i n an e x i s t i n g market. The Produc t L i f e C y c l e H y p o t h e s i s p r o v i d e s one reason a f i r m may need to c o n s i d e r investment abroad t o m a i n t a i n i t s c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n . The r i s k s of such a c t i o n s l i e i n ha v i n g the knowledge l e a k t o a c o m p e t i t o r or i n c r e a t i n g a c o m p e t i t o r from a customer of t e c h n i c a l knowledge. T h i s l a s t may not be an i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n a s i t u a t i o n where the knowledge i s expected to become o b s o l e t e r a p i d l y , or where i t w i l l soon become non-p r o p r i e t o r y . The q u e s t i o n of whether or how to t r a n s f e r t e c h n o l o g y i s o n l y an aspect of the broader investment d e c i s i o n . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , i f i t appears a t t r a c t i v e t o t r a n s f e r t e c h n o l o g y o r , more b r o a d l y , to i n v e s t , a f i r m w i l l p r e f e r to have ownership and c o n t r o l , (and the, p r o f i t ) . Where t h i s i s not p o s s i b l e , c o n t r o l may be m a i n t a i n e d by means such as r e s t r i c t i v e c l a u s e s i n ' l i c e n s i n g agreements, c o n t r a c t s to manage the l o c a l o p e r a t i o n s , and the s i m p l e dependence of the l o c a l f i r m on the e x p e r t t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v i c e of the m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n . These means may not be as e f f e c t i v e f o r t h i s purpose as m a j o r i t y ownership. PAGE 13 However, t h e r e are c i r c u m s t a n c e s which may m i t i g a t e a d e s i r e f o r t o t a l ownership. A j o i n t v e n t u r e may be p r e f e r r e d t o reduce the r i s k of e x p r o p r i a t i o n , or to gain a p a r t n e r w i t h e x p e r t i s e i n l o c a l market c o n d i t i o n s . L e g a l c o n s t r a i n t s , such as a requirement f o r a c e r t a i n amount of l o c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n , may make a share i n a p r o f i t a b l e v e n t u r e l o o k p r e f e r a b l e t o none. While a p a r t n e r s h i p i s formed f o r the p a r t n e r s t o pursue mutual b e n e f i t s , t h e r e are bound to be some c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t . L i c e n s i n g t o o , has i t s own a t t r a c t i o n s i n some c i r c u m s t a n c e s . 1. When a f i r m a s s e s s e s the l o c a l market as too s m a l l or u n a t t r a c t i v e f o r i n v e s t m e n t , l i c e n s i n g p r o v i d e s some revenue w i t h o u t any d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t . 2. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i n s i t u a t i o n s when a f i r m wishes to f a m i l i a r i z e i t s e l f w i t h the l o c a l market more t h o r o u g h l y b e f o r e d e c i d i n g whether t o i n v e s t t h e r e i t s e l f , l i c e n s i n g p r o v i d e s t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y . 3. A f i r m may be c o n s t r a i n e d by a l a c k of r e s o u r c e s or the h i g h c o s t s o f o b t a i n i n g i n f o r m a t i o n t o as s e s s a market. I t may d e c i d e t o s e t t l e f o r the revenue t o be gained through l i c e n s i n g . 4. I t may be time consuming f o r a f i r m t o set up i t s own d i r e c t i nvestment but i t may need t o a c t q u i c k l y t o keep out c o m p e t i t i o n . L i c e n s i n g may be the f a s t e s t way of a c c o m p l i s h i n g t h i s . PAGE 14 5. The t e c h n o l o g y a f i r m has a v a i l a b l e f o r t r a n s f e r r i n g i s g e n e r a l l y a sunk c o s t . L i c e n s i n g i s a way o f g e n e r a t i n g a r e t u r n w i t h v e r y l i t t l e m a r g i n a l c o s t , p a r t i c u l a r l y i f th e f i r m i s e x p e r i e n c e d i n the n e g o t i a t i o n o f l i c e n s e s . B alasubramanyam* s u g g e s t s t h a t the amount and q u a l i t y o f t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r r e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o what might p o t e n t i a l l y be t r a n s f e r r e d , v a r i e s w i t h t h e d e g r e e o f o w n e r s h i p and c o n t r o l by the m u l t i n a t i o n a l . He g i v e t h r e e r e a s o n s f o r t h i s : 1. A f i r m may o n l y be a b l e t o f u n c t i o n e f f e c t i v e l y i n an i n t e g r a t e d f o r m . I t may be u n a b l e t o s e p a r a t e t h e knowledge t o be t r a n s m i t t e d from the r e s t o f i t s o p e r a t i o n . 2. With o w n e r s h i p t h e r e i s an i n c e n t i v e t o make t h e v e n t u r e as p r o f i t a b l e as p o s s i b l e . I f the r e c e i p t s from l i c e n s i n g a r e l i n k e d t o p r o f i t s or s a l e s , t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l w i l l have a g r e a t e r i n t e r e s t i n s u p p l y i n g c o m p l e t e and q u a l i t y t e c h n o l o g y than under a f i x e d f e e ag r e e m e n t . However, t h e i r i n t e r e s t w i l l s t i l l be l e s s t h a n f o r a d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t s i n c e t h e y don't s t a n d t o l o s e as much i n the c a s e o f f a i l u r e . 3 . A f i r m may have a d i s i n c e n t i v e t o r e v e a l a l l i f i t r e g a r d s the a r r a n g e m e n t as the f i r s t s t e p toward t h e i r own d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t at a l a t e r d a t e . * V.N. Balasubramanyam, I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s f e r o f T e c h n o l o g y t o I n d i a . PAGE 15 J u s t as i n s u r g e r y or i n a g r i c u l t u r e , the success of the t r a n s p l a n t depends c r u c i a l l y on the r e c e p t i v i t y of the new environment, or c o n v e r s e l y , on the s u i t a b i l i t y of the t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s p l a n t e d f o r the new environment*. I t i s not r e q u i r e d , however, t h a t the new and o l d environments be i d e n t i c a l . In d i s c u s s i o n s of t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r , the concept of ' a p p r o p r i a t e * has become t o p i c a l . I t i s o f t e n used n a r r o w l y though. C o n s i d e r a t i o n s of the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of t e c h n o l o g y s h o u l d extend to the s o c i a l , economic, g e o g r a p h i c a l , c u l t u r a l , p o l i t i c a l , c l i m a t i c and e c o l o g i c a l environment. The t e c h n o l o g y chosen should be s u i t a b l e f o r i t s host environment - both i n order to succeed and f o r the e t h i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of i t s impact upon t h a t environment. The emphasis i n t h i s paper w i l l be on the impact of t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r r e d upon women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the l a b o u r f o r c e . When t e c h n o l o g i c a l change o c c u r s through t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r , the problem of dependence upon f o r e i g n s o u r c e s a r i s e s . The g r e a t e r the dependence, the g r e a t e r the f o r e i g n i n f l u e n c e upon the s o c i e t y and the development p r o c e s s , e c o n o m i c a l l y , p o l i t i c a l l y , and c u l t u r a l l y . T h i s i s the r o o t o f l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s ' concern over how much t e c h n o l o g y i s a c t u a l l y t r a n s f e r r e d to n a t i o n a l s and about the amount of r e s e a r c h and development which m u l t i n a t i o n a l B.N. B h a t t a s a l i , T r a n s f e r of Technology Among the  D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . PAGE 16 c o r p o r a t i o n s u n d e r t a k e w i t h i n t h e b o u n d a r i e s o f t h e h o s t c o u n t r y . By b u i l d i n g up i t s t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t i s e , a c o u n t r y c a n r e d u c e i t s d e p e n d e n c e upon f o r e i g n s o u r c e s , r e d u c e i t s b r a i n - d r a i n , and be i n a b e t t e r b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n when i t must i m p o r t t e c h n o l o g y . I t has been s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e c o s t t o a u s e r f i r m o f p u r c h a s i n g t e c h n o l o g y i s an i n c r e a s i n g f u n c t i o n o f t h e r e c e p i e n t ' s r e l a t i v e i g n o r a n c e . T h e r e i s a c e r t a i n t h r e s h o l d o f s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l r e q u i r e d j u s t t o know what u s e a b l e t e c h n o l o g y e x i s t s , t o u n d e r s t a n d i t , t o r e p a i r and m a i n t a i n i t , t o a d a p t i t t o t h e c o u n t r y ' s s p e c i a l c o n d i t i o n s o r even t o o p e r a t e i t . . ' I f a c o u n t r y b u i l d s up i t s own s c i e n t i f i c and t e c h n i c a l c a p a c i t y , i t i s i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o u t i l i z e what e x i s t s e l s e w h e r e ' * * . I n many s u b s i d i a r i e s , t h e k n o w l e d g e may be c o n f i n e d t o f o r e i g n e m p l o y e e s . I f t h e f i r m l e a v e s , so does t h e t e c h n o l o g y . I f n a t i o n a l s have t h e k n o w l e d g e , i t becomes d i f f u s e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e economy, as e m p l o y e e s change j o b s . S i n c e p r i v a t e f i r m s i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s p r o v i d e o v e r 50% o f n a t i o n a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on r e s e a r c h and d e v e l o p m e n t , and m u l t i n a t i o n a l s o p e r a t e i n b o t h d e v e l o p e d and l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , some l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a r e b e g i n n i n g t o demand t h a t a s h a r e o f t h e s e r e s e a r c h f u n d s be s p e n t i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . M u l t i n a t i o n a l s have been v e r y r e l u c t a n t t o do s o , a r g u i n g t h e i r need f o r ' a v a i l a b i l i t y o f ** G l e n n E. S c h w e i t z e r , ' T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r and D e v e l o p m e n t M y t h o l o g y ' i n T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r ; S u c c e s s e s and F a i l u r e s , p. 137. PAGE 17 l a r g e a g g r e g a t e s o f c a p i t a l , a p o o l o f s k i l l e d r e s e a r c h e r s , t h e p r o x i m i t y t o p r i m a r y m a n u f a c t u r i n g and m a r k e t i n g u n i t s w h i c h makes R&D r e s p o n s i v e t o p r a c t i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s and a s u p p o r t i v e a t t i t u d e t o w a r d R&D i n s o c i e t y a t l a r g e ' * . The s m a l l s c a l e o f p r o d u c t i o n i n many l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s i s c o n s i d e r e d t o o low t o a m o r t i z e r i s k y , h i g h c o s t r e s e a r c h . A f u r t h e r n e g a t i v e f a c e t t o dep e n d e n c e on t r a n s f e r r e d t e c h n o l o g y i s t h a t i t i s o f t e n a c c o m p a n i e d by r e s t r i c t i o n s . T h e s e i n c l u d e r e s t r i c t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o e x p o r t s by t h e l o c a l f i r m , t o s o u r c e s o f s u p p l y f o r m a t e r i a l s and c o m p o n e n t s , and t o p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e d u r e s . S u c h r e s t r i c t i o n s a r e common b o t h i n t h e c a s e o f l i c e n s i n g and i n t h e r e l a t i o n s b etween p a r e n t f i r m and i t s s u b s i d i a r y . E x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s v a r y . T h e r e can be a c o m p l e t e ban on e x p o r t s i n g e n e r a l , on e x p o r t s t o c e r t a i n m a r k e t s , o r a r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t t h e l o c a l f i r m f i r s t o b t a i n p e r m i s s i o n . The c o n f l i c t l i e s i n t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l s ' f e a r o f c r e a t i n g c o m p e t i t o r s and t h e i r d e s i r e t o p r o t e c t p r e s e n t and p o t e n t i a l m a r k e t s , w h i l e t h e g o v e r n m e n t s o f l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s r e s e n t t h e l o s s o f p o t e n t i a l f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e e a r n i n g s . An UNCTAD s t u d y * * o f n i n e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s shows t h a t t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f c o n t r a c t s c o n t a i n i n g r e s t r i c t i v e c l a u s e s v a r i e d f r o m 28 t o 9 9 % i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s . Of t h o s e c o n t r a c t s w i t h r e s t r i c t i v e c l a u s e s , * D e n i s G o u l e t , The U n c e r t a i n P r o m i s e , p. 60. ** UNCTAD, M a j o r I s s u e s A r i s i n g f r o m T r a n s f e r o f T e c h n o l o g y PAGE 18 f r o m 38 t o 100% d e a l t w i t h e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s . However, B a l a s u b r a m a n y a m 1 s s t u d y * o f t w e n t y I n d i a n f i r m s s u g g e s t s t h a t even when t h e r e a r e no r e s t r i c t i v e c l a u s e s , t h e r e a r e u s u a l l y v e r b a l a g r e e m e n t s as t o r e s t r i c t i o n s . T h a t s t u d y f o u n d e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s t o be t h e norm, t h o u g h few f i r m s seemed t o mind them. U n d o u b t e d l y , t h i s w i l l v a r y f r o m c o u n t r y t o c o u n t r y , i n d u s t r y t o i n d u s t r y , d e p e n d i n g upon t h e s t a g e o f d e v e l o p m e n t and w i t h t h e s i z e o f t h e u s e r f i r m . B a l a s u b r a m a n y a m ' s s t u d y a l s o f o u n d t h a t t h e r e s p o n s e t o g o v e r n m e n t r e g u l a t i o n o f r o y a l t i e s and t h e d u r a t i o n o f l i c e n s i n g payments was an i n c r e a s e i n e x p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s . The f o r e i g n s u p p l i e r s were even l e s s w i l l i n g t o r i s k l o s i n g o t h e r m a r k e t s i f t h e i r m o n e t a r y c o m p e n s a t i o n was s m a l l e r . C o n c e r n o v e r r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e s u p p l y i s due t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f o v e r p r i c i n g by t h e f o r e i g n f i r m and t h e d e t r i m e n t a l e f f e c t t h i s can have on t h e b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s . When t e c h n o l o g y i s p u r c h a s e d as a p a c k a g e w h i c h i n c l u d e s t h e s u p p l y o f i n t e r m e d i a t e i n p u t s and e q u i p m e n t , s u c h i n p u t s a r e u s u a l l y p r i c e d above t h e g o i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l r a t e s . Much e v i d e n c e o f t h i s i s f o u n d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e and has been t e r m e d ' i n s t i t u t i o n a l m o n o p o l y 1 . A v a r i a t i o n on t h i s theme o c c u r s between s u b s i d i a r i e s and p a r e n t m u l t i n a t i o n a l s . The t r a n s f e r p r i c e o f s u c h i n t e r m e d i a t e i n p u t s i s e l e v a t e d above t o D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . * V.N. B a l a s u b r a m a n y a m , I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s f e r o f T e c h n o l o g y t o I n d i a . PAGE 19 t h e m a r k e t p r i c e i n an a c c o u n t i n g manoever t o r e d u c e f i n a l p r o f i t s i n t h e h o s t c o u n t r y . The p r i c e o f i n t e r m e d i a t e i n p u t s i s o f t e n r e a l l y an i n d i r e c t c o s t o f i m p o r t i n g t h e t e c h n o l o g y . L e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s * g o v e r n m e n t s a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h o b t a i n i n g t e c h n o l o g y a t t h e minimum p o s s i b l e t o t a l c o s t , p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e much o f t h a t c o s t must be p a i d i n t h a t v e r y s c a r c e r e s o u r c e , f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e . I t may a l s o be i m p o r t a n t t o m a x i m i z e t h e l o c a l r e s o u r c e s e x p e n d e d and m i n i m i z e t h e f o r e i g n component f o r any g i v e n t e c h n o l o g i c a l i m p r o v e m e n t t o pro m o t e i n t e r n a l d e v e l o p m e n t and i n t e r - i n d u s t r y l i n k a g e s . The most o b v i o u s c o s t s o f t e c h n o l o g y a r e t h e d i r e c t m o n e t a r y c o s t s s u c h as l i c e n s i n g and r o y a l t y p a y m e n t s . T e c h n o l o g y i s g e n e r a l l y c o s t l y . M u l t i n a t i o n a l s j u s t i f y t h i s on t h e b a s i s t h a t r e s e a r c h and d e v e l o p m e n t i s c o s t l y and r i s k y . LDCs c o u n t e r t h a t t h e c o s t has been a m o r t i z e d i n home m a r k e t s . One o b s e r v e r c o n c l u d e s t h a t w i t h t h e low m a r g i n a l c o s t and h i g h f i x e d c o s t , t h e a c t u a l p r i c e c h a r g e d ' i s e s t a b l i s h e d by what t h e m a r k e t w o u l d b e a r . ' * P a r t o f t h i s c o s t i s h i d d e n i n t h e o t h e r payments w h i c h a r e p a r t o f t h e p a c k a g e , o r i n t r a n s f e r p r i c i n g . F a c t o r s b e a r i n g on t h e b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n o f a l o c a l f i r m w h i c h a f f e c t t h e p r i c e p a i d f o r t e c h n o l o g y i n c l u d e : E r i c H aydon, T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r t o E a s t e r n E u r o p e , p. 3 3 . PAGE 20 1) I n f o r m a t i o n on a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e s o f s u p p l y o f k n o w l e d g e . 2) How much t h e l o c a l f i r m i s w i l l i n g t o pay t o g e t t h e k n o w l e d g e . 3 ) How o l d t h e t e c h n o l o g y i s . 4) How much i t knows a b o u t t h e t e c h n o l o g y i t i s b u y i n g . 5) G o v e r n m e n t r e g u l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e maximum amount a f i r m i s p e r m i t t e d t o pay f o r t e c h n o l o g y . T h i s may s t r e n g t h e n a l o c a l f i r m ' s b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n o r , more d i r e c t l y , l o w e r t h e c o s t when t h e c o n t r a c t i s s u b m i t t e d f o r o f f i c i a l a p p r o v a l ( a s s u m i n g t h a t t h e f o r e i g n f i r m w i l l a g r e e t o s u p p l y f o r a l o w e r p r i c e ) . The l o c a l f i r m ' s c o n c e r n t h a t t h e i r own p e r s o n n e l be t r a i n e d t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e a c q u i r e d t e c h n o l o g y so t h a t t h e f i r m i s n o t o v e r l y d e p e n d e n t on o u t s i d e s u p p l i e r s i s one i n s t a n c e where t h e i r c o n c e r n s a c t u a l l y do m i r r o r t h a t o f t h e h o s t g o v e r n m e n t . I n o t h e r m a t t e r s s u c h as o p t i m i z i n g use o f l o c a l m a t e r i a l s , r e d u c i n g o u t s i d e d e p e n d e n c e and l o w e r i n g c o s t s , t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ( e i t h e r p u b l i c or p r i v a t e ) w h i c h i s s e e k i n g t e c h n o l o g y , even when s y m p a t h i c w i t h s u c h n a t i o n a l g o a l s may f i n d i t s i n t e r e s t s i n c o n f l i c t w i t h t h o s e e s p o u s e d by t h e g o v e r n m e n t on s e v e r a l i s s u e s . The main d i f f e r e n c e i s u s u a l l y t h a t t h e n a t i o n a l p o i n t o f v i e w i n c o r p o r a t e s e x t e r n a l i t i e s . PAGE 21 T h e r e i s i n c r e a s i n g c a l l f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o e x e r t more c o n t r o l and r e g u l a t i o n o v e r t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r . G o u l e t , f o r e x a m p l e , a d v o c a t e s a ' v i t a l n e x u s ' * i n s o c i e t y w h e r e b y s o c i a l v a l u e d e c i s i o n s d e t e r m i n e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g i e s t o be f o l l o w e d , and t h e s e d e t e r m i n e p o l i c y on t e c h n o l o g y . He i n d i c a t e s t h a t i f p o l i c y m a k e r s do n o t s e i z e t h e i n i t i a t i v e and e x e r c i s e s u c h c o n t r o l , t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h o i c e s made may n o t be c o m p a t i b l e w i t h v a l u e s and d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g y , and t h e g o a l s f o r w h i c h t h e t e c h n o l o g y was a p p l i e d w i l l n o t be a c h i e v e d . I n f a c t , t e c h n o l o g y may end up s h a p i n g s o c i e t y r a t h e r t h a n v i c e v e r s a . On t h e o t h e r hand, Robock, Simmons and Z w i c k * * p o i n t o u t t h a t t h e s c o p e f o r c o n t r o l s by l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s can be v e r y s m a l l d e p e n d i n g upon t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e i r m a r k e t s and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e i r r e s o u r c e s . The e l a s t i c i t y o f f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t o r t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r i n r e s p o n s e t o c o n t r o l s by s m a l l , i m p o v e r i s h e d , r e s o u r c e - p o o r c o u n t r i e s a p p e a r s t o be v e r y l a r g e . The q u e s t i o n a r i s e s as t o how h i g h i s t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f l o s t f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t o r t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r . I t i s c o n v e n t i o n a l l y assumed t h a t t h i s i s g r e a t and t h a t many LDCs can n o t a f f o r d t o o much r e g u l a t i o n . R a d i c a l s a s s e r t t h e c o n t r a r y w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o c o n t r o v e r s i e s o v e r how much t e c h n o l o g y i s a c t u a l l y t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e h o s t c o u n t r y , how v a l u a b l e s u c h * D e n i s G o u l e t , The U n c e r t a i n P r o m i s e . ** S t e f a n H. Robock e t a l , I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s and  M u l t i n a t i o n a l E n t e r p r i s e s . PAGE 22 i n a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n o l o g y i s , and how much payment i s e x t r a c t e d d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y i n t h e form o f f e e s , r o y a l t i e s , t r a n s f e r payments, i m p o r t e d m a t e r i a l s and the non-monetary c o s t s o f d e p e n d e n c e . They m a i n t a i n t h e h o s t c o u n t r y would be b e t t e r o f f t o i s o l a t e i t s e l f and d e v e l o p on i t s own. L a t e r i n t h i s paper one s m a l l a s p e c t o f t h i s c o n t r o v e r s y w i l l be examined - whether f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t i s a c t u a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t e c h n o l o g i c a l change a t a l l . PAGE 2 3 1 . 3 Women's L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t G o a l s F e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n : i ) A f f e c t s t h e r a t e o f g r o w t h o f p o p u l a t i o n and c o m p o s i t i o n o f f a m i l i e s , i i ) A f f e c t s t o t a l and p e r c a p i t a p r o d u c t i v i t y , i i i ) A f f e c t s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f income amongst f a m i l i e s , i v ) Has r e p e r c u s s i o n s on s o c i a l j u s t i c e and s e x u a l e q u a l i t y . I n some LDCs p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l may p l a y a c r i t i c a l r o l e i n i m p r o v i n g l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s o f t h e poo r i n c a s e s where t h e s o c i a l c o s t s o f i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n o u t w e i g h any s o c i a l b e n e f i t s . The 'new home e c o n o m i c s ' p r o v i d e s a p a r t i a l a n a l y t i c f r a m e w o r k f o r e x a m i n i n g t h e e f f e c t o f f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n on f e r t i l i t y . T h i s f r a m e w o r k i s i n c o m p l e t e i n t h a t s o c i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s and t h e w e i g h t g i v e n t o p r e f e r e n c e s o f d i f f e r e n t f a m i l y members ( p o w e r ) a r e submerged i n t h e h o u s e h o l d u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n i t a d d r e s s e s o n l y t h e l a b o u r s u p p l y s i d e , n ot t h e l a b o u r demand s i d e o f t h e q u e s t i o n . F e r t i l i t y r a t e s o f a c o m m u n i t y , a r e i n g e n e r a l , c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p r i v a t e , t h o u g h n o t n e c e s s a r i l y w i t h s o c i a l , r a t i o n a l i t y . F o r e x a m p l e , i n h u n t i n g and g a t h e r i n g s o c i e t i e s where women a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r g a t h e r i n g t h e m a j o r p o r t i o n o f t h e f o o d s u p p l y , c o m p l e t e d f a m i l y s i z e a v e r a g e s a b o u t two c h i l d r e n . More c h i l d r e n w o u l d i n t e r f e r e w i t h t h e i r m o t h e r ' s m o b i l i t y and u n d u l y t h r e a t e n t h e f o o d PAGE 24 s u p p l y . * T h i s a l s o i l l u s t r a t e s t h e p o i n t t h a t t h e c o s t s and b e n e f i t s o f c h i l d r e n a r e n o t i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e t e c h n o l o g y o f p r o d u c t i o n . The new home e c o n o m i c s p o s t u l a t e s t h a t p a r e n t s * j o i n t u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s a r e an i n c r e a s i n g f u n c t i o n o f t h e number and ' q u a l i t y * o f c h i l d r e n , and o f o t h e r ' b a s i c c o m m o d i t i e s ' . Goods and s e r v i c e s do n o t d i r e c t l y e n t e r i n t o t h e h o u s e h o l d u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n b u t a r e p a r t o f t h e h o u s e h o l d p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n w h i c h c o m b i n e s m a r k e t goods and s e r v i c e s w i t h t i m e and c a p i t a l goods t o p r o d u c e t h o s e ' b a s i c c o m m o d i t i e s ' w h i c h a r e consumed by t h e h o u s e h o l d t o y i e l d s a t i s f a c t i o n s . C h i l d r e n a r e v i e w e d as b o t h an i n v e s t m e n t and a c o n s u m p t i o n good and r e q u i r e d i r e c t m o n e t a r y o u t l a y s as w e l l as t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s o f r a i s i n g them, i n r e t u r n f o r t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n s w h i c h t h e y p r o v i d e . Time i s a r e s o u r c e w h i c h can be a l l o c a t e d t o m a r k e t p r o d u c t i o n f o r i n c o m e , home p r o d u c t i o n or t o c o n s u m p t i o n , ( a s n e a r l y a l l t h i n g s w h i c h y i e l d u t i l i t y r e q u i r e d i f f e r e n t i a l amounts o f t i m e ) . A c h a n g e i n t h e wage r a t e ( o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f t i m e ) t h u s c h a n g e s r e l a t i v e c ommodity ' p r i c e s ' as some c o m m o d i t i e s a r e more t i m e i n t e n s i v e i n c o n s u m p t i o n t h a n o t h e r s . Non-wage i n c r e a s e s i n i ncome do n o t change t h e s e r e l a t i v e c o m modity p r i c e s . An i n c r e a s e i n a p a r e n t ' s wages, o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , w i l l have b o t h income and s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t s upon * Rae L e s s e r B l u m b e r g , ' F a i r y T a l e s and F a c t s : Economy, F a m i l y , F e r t i l i t y and t h e F e m a l e * , p. 17. PAGE 25 t h e number and q u a l i t y o f c h i l d r e n demanded. The s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t : i s t o r e d u c e the number of c h i l d r e n ( s i n c e c h i l d r e n a r e assumed t o be much more time i n t e n s i v e t h a n most o t h e r consumpton a c t i v i t i e s . ) An i n c r e a s e i n the m o t h e r ' s wage w i l l have a s t r o n g e r s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t t h an an e q u a l i n c r e a s e i n the f a t h e r ' s wage ass u m i n g t h a t c h i l d r e n a r e more demanding o f t h e i r mother's time t h a n t h e i r f a t h e r ' s . However t h i s makes a s s u m p t i o n s about the r e l a t i v e w e i g h t i n g o f each p a r t n e r ' s p r e f e r e n c e s i n t h e h o u s e h o l d u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n , a p o i n t which w i l l be r e t u r n e d t o l a t e r . An i n c r e a s e i n c h i l d r e n ' s wages, o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l w i l l i n c r e a s e the demand f o r q u a n t i t y o f c h i l d r e n s i n c e t h i s d e c r e a s e s the net p r i c e o f c h i l d r e n . R i s i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s and wage r a t e s f o r women may i n c r e a s e or d e c r e a s e the demand f o r c h i l d r e n d e p e n d i n g upon whether t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t or income i s s t r o n g e r but w i l l r e s u l t i n fewer c h i l d r e n t h an i f the same i n c r e a s e i n income r e s u l t e d from an e q u a l i n c r e a s e i n t h e f a t h e r ' s wages or from non-wage income. I t has been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t the outcome of the i n t e r a c t i o n between income and s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t s w i l l not come i n t o e f f e c t u n t i l a c e r t a i n p o v e r t y ' t h r e s h o l d ' has been c r o s s e d . Below t h a t t h r e s h o l d , i n c r e a s e s i n income and e d u c a t i o n l e a d t o b e t t e r h e a l t h p r a c t i c e s and c a r e and have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon p o t e n t i a l f e r t i l i t y . I f p o t e n t i a l f e r t i l i t y i s PAGE 26 b e l o w d e s i r e d f e r t i l i t y , t h e number o f c h i l d r e n w i l l r i s e u n t i l t h e t h r e s h o l d i s r e a c h e d , a t w h i c h p o i n t t h e income and s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t s w i l l b e g i n t o d e t e r m i n e t h e ou t c o m e . One way women g a i n a c c e s s t o i n c r e a s e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s t h r o u g h e d u c a t i o n . E d u c a t i o n r a i s e s b o t h o n e ' s m a r k e t p r o d u c t i v i t y and one's home p r o d u c t i v i t y . I t i s h e r e t h a t t h e l a b o u r demand s i d e (and hence t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h o i c e ) becomes i m p o r t a n t . I f e d u c a t i o n r a i s e s a h o u s e h o l d member's m a r k e t p r o d u c t i v i t y more t h a n t h e i r n o n - m a r k e t p r o d u c t i v i t y , t h e n t h e r e w i l l be more o f a s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t away from c h i l d r e n . I f e d u c a t i o n does n o t b r o a d e n t h e s c o p e o f m a r k e t o p p o r t u n i t i e s , i t s e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s e d home p r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l l e a d t o g r e a t e r demand f o r c h i l d r e n . The h u s b a n d ' s e d u c a t i o n w i l l have a s t r o n g e r income e f f e c t , ( l e a d i n g t o an i n c r e a s e d demand f o r c h i l d r e n ) as he u s u a l l y e v a d e s much o f h i s s h a r e o f t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n t i m e s p e n t on c h i l d -r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s . E d u c a t i o n may a l s o change b o t h t a s t e s f o r , and r e l a t i v e p r i c e s o f , c h i l d q u a l i t y v e r s u s c h i l d q u a n t i t y . E d u c a t i o n o f t h e p a r e n t s i s assumed t o l o w e r t h e p r i c e o f q u a l i t y (a s u b s t i t u t e f o r q u a n t i t y ) . T h i s may be p a r t l y due t o t h e e d u c a t i o n o f t h e p a r e n t s ' r u b b i n g o f f on t h e c h i l d r e n . A l s o , h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n i s c o r r e l a t e d w i t h h i g h e r income and t a s t e s f o r d u r a b l e goods s u c h as h o u s i n g , c a r and t r a v e l PAGE 27 w h i c h a r e p u b l i c goods w i t h i n t h e f a m i l y and c o m p l e m e n t a r y w i t h t h e d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e s t o p r o d u c e ' q u a l i t y * i n t h e c h i l d r e n . E d u c a t i o n , by m a k i n g c o u p l e s more e f f i c i e n t i n c o n t r a c e p t i v e t e c h n i q u e s , a l t e r s t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t o f a c h i l d . T h i s i s d e f i n e d t o be t h e d i r e c t c o s t o f r a i s i n g a c h i l d i n t i m e , goods and s e r v i c e s , l e s s t h e c o s t o f f e r t i l i t y r e g u l a t i o n . I f t h e c o s t o f f e r t i l i t y r e g u l a t i o n i s r e d u c e d , t h e c o s t o f c h i l d r e n i n c r e a s e s l e a d i n g t o a d e c r e a s e d demand f o r c h i l d r e n . R o l e t h e o r y f r o m s o c i o l o g y may be b r o u g h t t o b e a r on t h i s q u e s t i o n . I t i s b e l e i v e d t h a t employment has a t w o - f o l d e f f e c t upon f e r t i l i t y . 1) I t s e r v e s t o e r o d e t h e t r a d i t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n o f women's r o l e and b r o a d e n s women's c o n c e r n s f r o m t h o s e s t r e s s e d i n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s o c i a l i z a t i o n p r o c e s s . Employment o f f e r s a f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e r o l e and g i v e s women an o p p o r t u n i t y t o d e v e l o p p e r s o n a l c o n c e p t i o n s o f t h e m s e l v e s w h i c h d e v i a t e o r c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e t r a d i t i o n a l m o d e l . The h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n a l t e r s p r e f e r e n c e s and t a s t e s f o r c h i l d r e n . 2 ) P r e m a r i t a l employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s may mean that'women can a f f o r d t o n o t m a r r y or t o d e l a y m a r r i a g e t o a l a t e r a g e . The l i n k between l a t e r m a r r i a g e s and d e c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i s f a i r l y w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d . F o r e x a m p l e , C h i n a has e n c o u r a g e d l a t e m a r r i a g e s as one way o f r e d u c i n g t h e b i r t h r a t e . In t h e P h i l i p p i n e s , i n r e g i o n s w h i c h e x h i b i t e d a d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y i n 19 7 3 1 PAGE 28 between 3 3 - 5 5 % o f the d e c l i n e was a t t r i b u t e d t o a l a t e r age at m a r r i a g e s i n c e f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f o r the same age g r o u p s r e m a i n e d c o n s t a n t . In r e g i o n s where t h e r e was an i n c r e a s e , 20 - 5 7 % o f the i n c r e a s e was a t t r i b u t e d t o e a r l i e r m a r r i a g e p a t t e r n s ( a c c o r d i n g t o F l i e g e r 1 9 7 5 ) . However, o v e r the l o n g run t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s may not be s t a b l e i f p e o p l e make l i f e - t i m e d e c i s i o n s o f how many c h i l d r e n t o have and make up f o r l a t e r m a r r i a g e by h a v i n g more b i r t h s i n f u t u r e y e a r s . O t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l t h o u g h , t h i s s h o u l d o n l y m i t i g a t e the magnitude and not t h e d i r e c t i o n o f the change. And l i k e t a x e s , i n some s e n s e a b i r t h d e f e r r e d i s a b i r t h ' s a v e d ' . R o l e t h e o r y as a p p l i e d t o LDCs i s a l s o not unambiguous i n i t s p r e d i c t i o n s . Some LDC employment may not cause r o l e c o n f l i c t - t h e r e i s c o m p a t a b i 1 i t y o f women's worker and mother r o l e s . In t r a d i t i o n a l and u n o r g a n i z e d s e c t o r s , employment may not a l t e r women's sex r o l e o r i e n t a t i o n as the employment may p r o v i d e no a l t e r n a t i v e ' s a t i s f a c t i o n s or i d e n t i t y . The e x i s t e n c e o f e x t e n d e d f a m i l i e s , and f o r t h e upper and m i d d l e c l a s s e s , the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d o m e s t i c h e l p may r e d u c e t h e burden o f women's c h i l d c a r e s e r v i c e s and t h e r e f o r e , the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f employment as w e l l . M o t i v a t i o n and t y p e o f employment can a l s o a f f e c t f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s . Modern s e c t o r employment w i t h i t s more r i g i d w o r k i n g h o u r s and i t s g r e a t e r demand on s p e c i f i c s k i l l s may PAGE 29 r e s u l t i n a g r e a t e r s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t away from c h i l d r e n . I t i s l e s s e a s i l y viewed as a s i m p l e e x t e n s i o n o f w i f e and mother r o l e . J o b s f o r women i n t h e h i g h e r s o c i o e c o n o m i c c l a s s e s a r e more l i k e l y t o be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by g r e a t e r p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e w a r d s than t h o s e a v a i l a b l e t o lower c l a s s women. Where employment i s u n d e r t a k e n p u r e l y out o f economic n e c e s s i t y and not at a l l from p e r s o n a l p r e f e r e n c e , t h e ' a l t e r n a t i v e ' s a t i s f a c t i o n s and r o l e may have a much s m a l l e r i m p a c t . However, even work u n d e r t a k e n f o r p u r e l y f i n a n c i a l r e a s o n s may be i n d i c a t i v e o f a s t r o n g o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t t o the f a m i l y o f the women's l o s t wages i f she were t o q u i t . E m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s a r e hampered by t h e l a c k o f a u n i d i r e c t i o n a l c a u s a l mechanism between employment and f e r t i l i t y . A p e r f e c t l y good c a s e can be made f o r s e l f -s e l e c t i o n . Women who a r e u n m a r r i e d or who have fewer c h i l d r e n may f i n d i t e a s i e r t o remain i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . M a r r i a g e a t a l a t e r age c o u l d be due t o the c o r r e l a t i o n between more e d u c a t i o n and g r e a t e r p r o b a b i l i t y o f employment, as e d u c a t i o n i t s e l f has been found t o d e l a y the age o f m a r r i a g e . S i m i l a r l y , i f employed women a r e more i n d e p e n d e n t , ' c a r e e r - m i n d e d ' , and have n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l p e r c e p t i o n s o f s e l f , t h i s may not be t h e e f f e c t o f employment but the f a c t t h a t such women a r e drawn t o cho o s e employment. Measurement c o u l d e q u a l l y be c l o u d e d by t h e g r e a t e r p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a w i f e w i l l need t o e a r n the more PAGE 30 t h e c h i l d r e n t h e r e a r e (and t h e l o w e r t h e p e r c a p i t a h o u s e h o l d income i s ) . Most s t u d i e s do n o t c o n t r o l f o r s u c h p o s s i b l e s i m u l t a n e i t y b e t w e e n c u r r e n t l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n and a c c o m p l i s h e d f e r t i l i t y . T hose w h i c h have a d d r e s s e d t h e q u e s t i o n have f o u n d m u t u a l c a u s a t i o n e x i s t s b u t t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f work p l a n s on f e r t i l i t y was s t r o n g e r ( W a i t e and S t o l z e n b e r g 1976 ).. I n one s t u d y o f t h e P h i l i p p i n e s , e d u c a t i o n was f o u n d t o be p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h f e r t i l i t y b u t a t a d e c l i n i n g r a t e among r u r a l m o t h e r s w i t h v e r y low l e v e l s o f e d u c a t i o n . W i t h h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n e d u c a t i o n and f e r t i l i t y became n e g a t i v e f o r t h e r u r a l g r o u p . In t h e u r b a n s a m p l e , r i s i n g e d u c a t i o n had a d e p r e s s i n g e f f e c t upon f e r t i l i t y a t a l l l e v e l s a l t h o u g h t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p d i d n o t become s i g n i f i c a n t u n t i l t h e h i g h s c h o o l l e v e l was r e a c h e d . * M i r o and M e r t e n ( 1 9 6 8 ) a l s o f o u n d t h a t o n l y beyond p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n i s a n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t ween f e r t i l i t y and m o t h e r ' s e d u c a t i o n f o u n d . B a n s k o t a and E v e n s o n f o u n d t h a t t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f t h e number o f c h i l d r e n ' w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e m o t h e r ' s wage was -.27 w i t h no d i f f e r e n c e f o u n d w h e t h e r she worked i n a g r i c u l t u r e o r n o n - a g r i c u l t u r e . The wage o f t h e f a t h e r a l s o had a n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t b u t was i n s i g n i f i c a n t . W i t h r e s p e c t t o c h i l d r e n s wages, t h e e l a s t i c i t y was +.74. The • E l i z a b e t h K i n g Q u i z o n , 'Time i n t h e R u r a l P h i l i p p i n e s ' . A l l o c a t i o n and Home P r o d u c t i o n PAGE 31 e f f e c t o f t h e m o t h e r s ' e d u c a t i o n on t h e o t h e r hand, showed a s m a l l p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h f e r t i l i t y w i t h an e l a s t i c i t y o f +.09. The mother's wage a l s o had a much s t r o n g e r p o s i t i v e i mpact on the e x p e n d i t u r e s on s c h o o l i n g f o r t he c h i l d r e n ( i e the ' q u a l i t y ' o f c h i l d r e n ) t h a n d i d t h e f a t h e r ' s wage. The h i g h e r t h e mother's wage, t h e h i g h e r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f c h i l d r e n . T h i s may e x p l a i n why l o w e r - i n c o m e f a m i l i e s have more c h i l d r e n t han u p p e r - c l a s s f a m i l i e s . C a b a n e r o shows t h a t t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t the o u t - o f - p o c k e t , t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s o f p a r e n t a l time and the p o t e n t i a l market and home p r o d u c t i o n c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f c h i l d r e n , t h e y can become net a s s e t s as e a r l y as age 9 i n low income f a m i l i e s i n the P h i l 1 i p p i n e s . In h i g h e r income f a m i l i e s t h i s p o i n t does not come u n t i l age 15. One o f the c r i t i c a l t h i n g s l e f t out o f economic a n a l y s i s i s th e w e i g h t i n g g i v e n t o i n d i v i d u a l p a r t n e r s ' p r e f e r e n c e s . One r e c e n t s t u d y from the P h i l i p p i n e s shows t h a t w h i l e w o r k i n g and non-working women e x p r e s s e d the same i d e a l f a m i l y s i z e , t h o s e w i t h p r e m a r i t a l work e x p e r i e n c e ended up w i t h fewer c h i l d r e n ( c l o s e r t o the e x p r e s s e d i d e a l ) . T h i s may s u g g e s t t h a t t h e s e women had a g r e a t e r a b i l i t y t o s t i c k t o t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s . I t was a l s o found t h a t women who worked i n t h e modern s e c t o r had fewer c h i l d r e n t h a n t h o s e who d i d not work or who worked i n a g r i c u l t u r e or t h e PAGE 32 i n f o r m a l s e c t o r . T h i s may i n d i c a t e e i t h e r g r e a t e r p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e w a r d s from, and g r e a t e r committment t o modern s e c t o r employment 0£ t o t h e h i g h e r p r e s t i g e a c c o r d e d modern s e c t o r l a b o u r r e s u l t i n g i n h i g h e r f a m i l y s t a t u s f o r t h o s e women. Each p a r t n e r w i l l have t h e i r own c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s r e g a r d i n g c h i l d r e n . Where t h e s e d i f f e r , t he w e i g h t a t t a c h e d t o the woman's p r i o r i t i e s depends upon her r e l a t i v e power i n t h e h o u s e h o l d , which comes m a i n l y from the s t r a t e g i c i m p o r t a n c e o f her p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t i e s t o the w e l f a r e o f the f a m i l y . The i m p o r t a n c e i s u s u a l l y c o n n e c t e d w i t h e i t h e r t h e p r o d u c t i o n or c o n t r o l o f the fo o d s u p p l y or w i t h t h e c a s h r e w a r d s f o r p r o d u c t i v e l a b o u r . ' P r o d u c t i v e ' economic a c t i v i t y by women th e n p l a y s a c r u c i a l r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g f e r t i l i t y not o n l y by r a i s i n g the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i n b o t h monetary and non-monetary ways t o the f a m i l y and t o t h e woman, o f a d d i t i o n a l c h i l d r e n ; but i n p r o v i d i n g women w i t h g r e a t e r s t a t u s and power i n the h o u s e h o l d . G r e a t e r w e i g h t i n f e r t i l i t y d e c i s i o n s i s thus g i v e n t o p r e c i s e l y t h o s e women who a r e l i k e l y t o d e s i r e s m a l l e r f a m i l y s i z e . O t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , an i-ncrease i n f e m a l e employment s h o u l d r e s u l t i n g r e a t e r t o t a l o u t p u t and i n c r e a s e d per c a p i t a income among a l l c l a s s e s . T h i s s h o u l d improve the l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s o f the masses. But whether i t a c t u a l l y r e s u l t s i n improved income d i s t r i b u t i o n depends upon f o r PAGE 33 whom employment i s c r e a t e d and whether t h e t e c h n o l o g y employed d i s p l a c e s employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r p o o r e r c l a s s e s i n f a v o u r o f t h o s e who a r e b e t t e r o f f . I f , f o r example, t h e o n l y change was t h a t h i g h l y s k i l l e d j o b s were c r e a t e d f o r women i n the modern s e c t o r , t h e n one would e x p e c t t h a t o n l y m i d d l e and upper c l a s s women would have a c c e s s t o t h e s e and the o v e r a l l income d i s t r i b u t i o n would d e t e r i o r a t e . I f b r o a d - b a s e d r u r a l a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t programs d e s i g n e d w i t h women as w e l l as men i n mind were u n d e r t a k e n , one would e x p e c t an improvement i n p o o r e r f a m i l i e s ' l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s and an improvement i n e q u i t y as w e l l as p r o d u c t i v i t y . C e t e r i u s p a r i b u s , r i s i n g r e l a t i v e i n e q u a l i t y between the s e x e s combined w i t h r i s i n g male incomes might a l s o be t h o u g h t t o i n c r e a s e women's a b s o l u t e s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g i f f a m i l y incomes a r e r i s i n g . However, t h i s w i l l not be the c a s e i f f e m a l e - h e a d e d h o u s e h o l d s form a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f the low e r income f a m i l i e s . In f a c t , i n some c o u n t r i e s , up t o one t h i r d o f a l l h o u s e h o l d s a r e headed by women.* R e g a r d l e s s o f the e f f e c t upon income d i s t r i b u t i o n among s o c i o e c o n o m i c c l a s s e s , f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n s h o u l d improve t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f power and s t a t u s , as w e l l as c o n s u m p t i o n and human c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t , between the s e x e s w i t h i n t h e f a m i l y . T h i s d i f f e r e n c e i s o f t e n n o t e d i n • I r e n e T i n k e r , ' A d v e r s e Impact o f Development on Women', p . 3 2 . PAGE 34 c o n n e c t i o n w i t h sons r e c e i v i n g more e d u c a t i o n and t r a i n i n g t h a n d a u g h t e r s i n many c u l t u r e s . R ecent s t u d i e s from t h e P h i l l i p p i n e s i n d i c a t e however, t h a t p a r e n t a l c a r e , t i m e , and a t t e n t i o n a r e a l s o more c o n c e n t r a t e d on s o n s . * S i n c e n u t r i t i o n a l i n t a k e i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y below t h e Recommended D a i l y A l l o w a n c e s , t h e f a c t t h a t a f t e r a c c o u n t i n g f o r d i f f e r e n t i a l age-sex n u t r i t i o n a l needs, g i r l s f a r e d much worse than boys s u g g e s t s t h a t p a r e n t a l a l l o c a t i o n o f f o o d i s a l s o viewed as a d i f f e r e n t i a l i n v e s t m e n t i n t h e human c a p i t a l o f t h e i r c h i l d r e n . * * L a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n has g r e a t e r s t r a t e g i c i m p o r t a n c e t h a n home p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s a woman may be engaged i n , s i n c e such p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s e i t h e r c o n n e c t e d w i t h the p r o d u c t i o n o f the f o o d s u p p l y , or w i t h c a s h r e w a r d s f o r l a b o u r . C o n s e q u e n t l y , a s h i f t o f women's l a b o u r i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n may w e l l be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a r i s e i n women's s o c i a l s t a t u s and a r a t i o n a l s h i f t i n the a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s toward l e s s u n e q u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n human c a p i t a l i n the form o f f o o d , a t t e n t i o n , and e d u c a t i o n o f g i r l s and b o y s . *T. C a b a n e r o , 'Shadow P r i c e o f C h i l d r e n i n Laguna H o u s e h o l d s ' ** J . B a t t a d , ' D e t e r m i n a n t s o f N u t r i t i o n a l S t a t u s o f P r e s c h o o l e r s ' and R. V a l e n z u e l a , 'A Study on N u t r i t i o n a l D i s t r i b u t i o n W i t h i n t h e F a m i l y and F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g N u t r i e n t I n t a k e ' PAGE 35 In summary, w h i l e i t i s p o s s i b l e under some c i r c u m s t a n c e s f o r the 'income e f f e c t to outweigh the s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t ' , women's employment tends to reduce women's p r e f e r e n c e s f o r more c h i l d r e n . I t a l s o a f f e c t s t a s t e s and hence, demand f o r • q u a l i t y 1 or g r e a t e r investment i n the human c a p i t a l 6 f each c h i l d . I t i n c r e a s e s the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a r g e f a m i l i e s , d e l a y s age at and p r o b a b i l i t y of m a r r i a g e , and i n c r e a s e s women's s t a t u s w i t h i n the f a m i l y , r e s u l t i n g i n g r e a t e r weight accorded t o p r e f e r e n c e s f o r s m a l l f a m i l i e s than would o t h e r w i s e be the case. Both e d u c a t i o n and t e c h n o l o g y have i m p o r t a n t impact upon women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . But i t has been found t h a t g r e a t e r e d u c a t i o n w i t h o u t g r e a t e r economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s can le a d t o i n c r e a s e d r a t h e r than d e c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n growth. PAGE 36 .4 E f f e c t o f T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change and t h e D e v e l o p m e n t P r o c e s s on Women's L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n T h e r e i s a t e n d e n c y f o r p e o p l e t o assume t h a t h i g h e r l e v e l s o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t l e a d t o g r e a t e r e c o n o m i c i n d e p e n d e n c e and p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women and t h a t t h e more ' t r a d i t i o n a l ' o r ' u n d e r d e v e l o p e d ' a c o u n t r y ' s economy, t h e more ' t r a d i t i o n a l ' w i l l be t h e r o l e t h a t women p l a y . I n t h e more i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , women have come t o f o r m a s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . I n Ca n a d a , i n 1976, 45% o f a l l women above t h e age 15 were w o r k i n g women, o r 5 0 . 7 % o f women between 15 and 65. The c o m p a r a b l e f i g u r e s f o r C a n a d i a n men were 7 5 . 5 % and 8 2 % . F o r women 15-24 y e a r s o f age, t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e was 56.9%, n o t t h a t f a r b e l o w t h e male r a t e o f 68.2% f o r t h e same age c a t e g o r y , a r e f l e c t i o n o f c h a n g i n g v a l u e s h a v i n g g r e a t e r i m p a c t upon t h e y o u n g . * I n t h e U.S., by March 1976, t h e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e o f m a r r i e d men had d e c l i n e d t o 8 2 % , and t h a t o f m a r r i e d women had r i s e n t o 4 5 % . I t i s s u r p r i s i n g t o f i n d e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r f r o m more d e v e l o p e d t o l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r i s i n g i n e q u a l i t y between t h e s e x e s and * S t a t i s t i c s C a nada, Canada Y e a r b o o k 1978-79. PAGE 37 d e c l i n i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f o r women, a t l e a s t i n i t i a l l y . On t h e s u r f a c e , t h i s m i g h t be c o n s t r u e d t o be t h e r e s u l t o f t h e 'income e f f e c t o u t w e i g h i n g t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t ' . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e b e n e f i t s o f d e v e l o p m e n t has been t o t a k e more l e i s u r e f o r t h e wo m e n f o l k r a t h e r t h a n i n t e n s i f y i n g t h e i r work e f f o r t i n t h e f a c e o f g r e a t e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s . T h i s t u r n s o u t n o t t o be e n t i r e l y t h e c a s e . S t r u c t u r a l E f f e c t s : I t seems a U-shaped r e l a t i o n s h i p may be an a p p r o p r i a t e h y p o t h e s i s f o r e x p l a i n i n g t h e i m p a c t o f t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r upon women's s t a t u s and p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . T h i s i s b e c a u s e t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r i s a means o f a c c e l e r a t i n g g r o w t h w h i c h i s n o n - n e u t r a l i n i t s i m p a c t upon d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s o f t h e economy. As an i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h e r i g h t l i m b o f t h e 'U', c o n s i d e r t h e C a n a d i a n c a s e . O c c u p a t i o n s a r e l a r g e l y s e x - s e g r e g a t e d and c e r t a i n s e x - s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n s t e n d t o c l u s t e r i n t o c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i e s . As a r e s u l t i n t h e p a s t , women i n Canada have made up 40$ o r more o f t h e t o t a l l a b o u r f o r c e i n T e a c h i n g , M e d i c i n e and H e a l t h , C l e r i c a l and S e r v i c e o c c u p a t i o n s . They have made up l e s s t h a n 10% i n N a t u r a l S c i e n c e , E n g i n e e r i n g , C o n s t r u c t i o n , T r a n s p o r t and t h e P r i m a r y I n d u s t r i e s . B etween 1951 and 1971, Community and P e r s o n a l S e r v i c e , P u b l i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and T r a d e s e c t o r s h ave grown by 163.5%, 109.1% and 7 8 . 6 % r e s p e c t i v e l y i n PAGE 38 Ca n a d a . P r i m a r y s e c t o r s have e i t h e r d e c l i n e d , o r a t l e a s t h a v e done w o r s e t h a n t h e a g g r e g a t e r a t e o f g r o w t h o f 62.8% o v e r t h i s p e r i o d . A g r i c u l t u r e , F o r e s t r y , F i s h i n g and T r a p p i n g have s e e n employment f a l l by 41.8%, 42.8% and 5 0 . 5 % , w h i l e M i n i n g grew by o n l y 3 1.6%.* I t has been s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h i s skewed p a t t e r n o f g r o w t h has r e s u l t e d i n i n c r e a s e d j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r women c a u s i n g wage r a t e s f o r women t o c l i m b and a t t r a c t i n g more women i n t o t h e p a i d l a b o u r f o r c e . The i n c r e a s e d demand f o r s e r v i c e s and c o n v e n i e n c e s as a r e s u l t o f more women w o r k i n g , has r e i n f o r c e d t h e movement o f t h e economy t o w a r d s a l a r g e r e m p h a s i s on t h e t e r t i a r y s e c t o r and l e s s r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e f o r t h e p r i m a r y s e c t o r . S i m i l a r l y i n s u b s i s t e n c e e c o n o m i e s , as d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e e d s , t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f a g r i c u l t u r e f o r employment i n t h e economy must a t some s t a g e s t a r t t o d e c l i n e w h i l e t h e s e c o n d a r y and t e r t i a r y s e c t o r s g a i n i n i m p o r t a n c e . The e x t e n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n s u b s i s t e n c e e c o n o m i e s i s o f t e n o v e r l o o k e d h o w e v e r . Women must p e r f o r m two r o l e s and he n c e t h e i r ' p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s ' i n t h i s s e c t o r a r e v e r y h i g h . T h i s may n o t be r e v e a l e d s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i n c e , a l o n g w i t h e x c h a n g e l a b o u r , h o u s e h o l d work, c h i l d c a r e , and many o f t h e a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e i n f o r m a l s e c t o r , much o f u n p a i d work i n f a m i l y b u s i n e s s e s and a g r i c u l t u r a l work on f a m i l y • A l i c e Nakamura, Employment and E a r n i n g s o f M a r r i e d F e m a l e s , p p . 2 7 - 2 9 . PAGE 39 l a n d t h a t women do, i s n o t c o u n t e d as work i n o f f i c i a l s t a t i s t i c s . So d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t women, w o r k i n g up t o s i x t e e n h o u r s a day i n t h e f i e l d s p e r f o r m 6 0 - 8 0 % o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l work i n r u r a l a r e a s o f most A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s . . . ' * t h e U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f L a b o u r s t a t i s t i c s show t h a t o n l y 5 % o f t h e women i n A f r i c a work. T h i s i s p r o b a b l y a f a i r l y a c c u r a t e r e f l e c t i o n o f A f r i c a n women's modern s e c t o r l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p t i o n . Women's e n t r y i n t o t h e modern s e c t o r i s more l i m i t e d t h a n men's f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g r e a s o n s : 1) F a m i l y o b l i g a t i o n s a r e t r a d i t i o n a l l y v e s t e d p r i m a r i l y on women. T h i s d e c r e a s e s t h e i r m o b i l i t y s i g n i f i c a n t l y more t h a n men. As d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e e d s p a s t s u b s i s t e n c e l e v e l , f u n c t i o n a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n i n c r e a s e s and t h e c e n t e r o f p r o d u c t i o n t e n d s t o s h i f t away f r o m t h e home. T h i s r e d u c e s t h e a c c e s s o f women t o t h e means o f p r o d u c t i o n . ( T h i s may a l s o e x p l a i n why women t a k e l e s s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a g r i c u l t u r e i n s o c i e t i e s w h i c h had c u l t u r e s w i t h h i g h f u n c t i o n a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n . P r i o r t o t h e 1700's and W e s t e r n i n t e r f e r e n c e , A s i a n c i v i l i z a t i o n s had d e v e l o p e d f u n c t i o n a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and much o f t h e i r e c o n o m i e s were no l o n g e r s u b s i s t e n c e - b a s e d . ) • I r e n e T i n k e r , The A d v e r s e I m p a c t o f D e v e l o p m e n t on Women i n Women and W o r l d D e v e l o p m e n t , p.23 . PAGE 40 2) O c c u p a t i o n a l c h o i c e f o r women i s much more n a r r o w l y l i m i t e d by c u s t o m . 3 ) Women a r e g e n e r a l l y p r o v i d e d w i t h l e s s i n v e s t m e n t i n t h e i r human c a p i t a l . 4) E v e n t h o s e women who overcome t h e above b a r r i e r s may w e l l f a c e s e x u a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n t h e l a b o u r m a r k e t . As t h e s i z e o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r s h r i n k s i n p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e r e s t o f t h e economy, so t o o w i l l women's o v e r a l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n e ven i f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i s r i s i n g i n a l l s e c t o r s o f t h e economy i n c l u d i n g a g r i c u l t u r e . I n s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e , as f o r exa m p l e i n p a r t s o f A f r i c a , men may be a t t r a c t e d away f r o m t h e f a r m i n t o t h e h i g h e r wage s e c t o r w h i l e women t a k e on even g r e a t e r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e f a m i l y p l o t . T h i s i l l u s t r a t e s t h e l e f t l i m b o f t h e 'U'. E f f e c t s on I n d i v i d u a l S e c t o r s : M o v i n g f r o m an a g r i c u l t u r a l l y - b a s e d s u b s i s t e n c e economy t o a more d i v e r s i f i e d one i s a l m o s t c e r t a i n t o r e d u c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women due t o d e c r e a s e d a c c e s s t o p r o d u c t i v e p r o c e s s e s . How s e v e r e t h i s w i l l be depends upon t h e s e c o n d e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change - i t s e f f e c t on t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n i n d i v i d u a l s e c t o r s , b o t h a g r i c u l t u r a l and n o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l . Two e x a m p l e s may i l l u s t r a t e t h i s : A. P e r i o d 1: Women compose 5 0 % o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k f o r c e and 10% o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l w o r k f o r c e . A g r i c u l t u r e a c c o u n t s f o r 7 0 S o f t h e t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t . Economy-wide f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i s : PAGE 4 1 (.5) (.7) + ( . 1 M . 3 ) = .38 P e r i o d 2 : THe o n l y c h a n g e i s t h a t i n d u s t r y a c c o u n t s f o r 50} o f t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t . O v e r a l l f e m a l e employment r a t e i s : (.5) (.5) + (.DC. 5 ) = .30 B . P e r i o d 1 : The same s c e n a r i o as P e r i o d 1 a b o v e i s i n e f f e c t . P e r i o d 2 : F e m a l e employment i n c r e a s e s 1 0 } i n a g r i c u l t u r e and 3 0 } i n i n d u s t r y . O v e r a l l f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i s : ( . 5 5 M . 5 ) • ( . 1 3 M . 5 ) = .34 The a d v e r s e e f f e c t s o f t h e d e c l i n e i n a g r i c u l t u r e on women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , c a n be s o f t e n e d by a p p r o p r i a t e g o a l s , p r o g r a m s , t e c h n o l o g y , and p o l i c i e s d i r e c t i n g whom t o d e s i g n f o r , and t o whom t o c o n v e y k n o w l e d g e and o p p o r t u n i t e s . T h i s can s i g n i f i c a n t l y m i t i g a t e t h e m a g n i t u d e b u t i s u n l i k e l y t o a l t e r t h e o v e r a l l d i r e c t i o n o f t h e r e d u c t i o n o f l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n f o r women i n t h e r e l e v a n t r a n g e o f d e v e l o p m e n t . T e c h n o l o g y a t t h e l e v e l o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r y c a n be d e p l o y e d i n s u c h a way as t o i n c r e a s e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n p r o d u c t i v e l a b o u r i n b o t h a g r i c u l t u r e and i n t h e modern and g r o w i n g s e c o n d a r y and t e r t i a r y s e c t o r s o f t h e economy. I t i s t h e a c t i o n t a k e n on t h i s l e v e l , w h i c h w i l l d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e ' m i t i g a t i n g f o r c e s ' m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , w i l l be i n v o k e d . PAGE 42 T h e r e a r e many docum e n t e d c a s e s where t h e e f f e c t o f s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s on p a r t i c i p a t i o n have been w o r s e n e d by an i n b u i l t a s s u m p t i o n by t h o s e t r a n s f e r r i n g t e c h n o l o g y , as w e l l a s home g o v e r n m e n t p l a n n e r s , o f t h e sex o f f a r m e r s and w o r k e r s i n s u b s i s t e n c e e c o n o m i e s . As Mme. J e a n n e Zongo p u t s i t , ' R u r a l women do most o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k . . . b u t t h e m o d e r n i z a t i o n programmes a r e a l l a d d r e s s e d t o men'. I n one i n s t a n c e , wages were p a i d t o e n s u r e a t t e n d e n c e a t a d e m o n s t r a t i o n p l a n t i n g and a l l t h e u n e m p l o y e d men a t t e n d e d w h i l e t h e women c o n t i n u e d t h e i r work i n t h e f i e l d s . * I n a n o t h e r , i n a West A f r i c a n c o u n t r y , ' a l t h o u g h e x t e n s i o n w o r k e r s had shown men t h e c o r r e c t d e p t h t o d i g t h e h o l e s , c o f f e e c o n t i n u e d t o d i e b e c a u s e women were d o i n g t h e p l a n t i n g ' . * * Men r e c e i v e c r e d i t , t e c h n o l o g i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n s , t r a i n i n g i n u s e , r e p a i r and m a i n t e n a n c e , y e t i t i s n o t r e a l i z e d t h a t i t may be women who need t h i s . In some c a s e s i n A f r i c a , men w i l l l e t pump and p i p i n g s y s t e m s f a l l i n t o d i s r e p a i r s i n c e i t i s t h e women who a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r g e t t i n g t h e w a t e r and men who have i n s t r u c t i o n and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r m a i n t a i n i n g t h e p i p i n g s y s t e m . T h i s b i a s e x t e n d s t o even methane gas and s o l a r e n e r g y f o r c o o k i n g , t e c h n i q u e s t a u g h t u s u a l l y t o men r a t h e r t h a n women. Not o n l y i s t e c h n o l o g y n o t t r a n s f e r r e d t o women i n a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t a n c e s , ( p e r h a p s • I b i d . p.26. *• M a r i l y n C a r r , A p p r o p r i a t e T e c h n o l o g y f o r A f r i c a n Women, p. 2 7. PAGE 43 b e c a u s e o f i t ) , i t i s n o t d e s i g n e d t o be a p p r o p r i a t e f o r them e i t h e r . In a n o t h e r A f r i c a n i n s t a n c e g r i n d i n g m a c h i n e s were n o t d e s i g n e d w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l c o n c e p t s o f p r o p r i e t y f o r A f r i c a n women i n m i n d . As a r e s u l t , t h e women c o u l d n o t use them f o r t h i s t r a d i t i o n a l t a s k t h o u g h i t w o u l d have r e d u c e d t h e i r v o i * k l o a d c o n s i d e r a b l y . I n o t h e r c a s e s , t h o u g h t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t on p r o d u c t i v i t y was s m a l l e r , t h e d i r e c t i o n and d e s i g n o f t h e t e c h n o l o g y have none t h e l e s s had an a d v e r s e i m p a c t upon f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . S c y t h e s have been i n t r o d u c e d i n some a r e a s o f wet r i c e c u l t i v a t i o n s i n c e i t i s more e f f i c i e n t t h a n t h e s m a l l pen k n i v e s w h i c h women t r a d i t i o n a l l y use t o c u t e a c h i n d i v i d u a l s t a l k . However, women have r e s i s t e d t h e use o f s c y t h e s s i n c e t h e y have t o c a r r y t h e g r e a t e r w e i g h t o f e x c e s s s t a l k t h a t i s l e f t o v e r and when t h e y t h r a s h t h e c r o p w i t h t h e i r f e e t t h e y r e c e i v e n a s t y c u t s f r o m t h e t o u g h l o w e r s t a l k s . S i n c e men do n o t do t h e s e t a s k s , w i t h t h e more e f f i c i e n t t o o l s t h e y have d i s p l a c e d women's h a r v e s t e m p l o y m e n t , t h o u g h women c o n t i n u e t o do t h e t h r e s h i n g . W i t h l i t t l e d i r e c t a c c e s s t o c r e d i t , i m p r o v e d s e e d s , o t h e r t e c h n o l o g i c a l k n o w l e d g e , m e m b e r s h i p s i n c o - o p s , e t c . women a r e s l o w l y c u t o f f f r o m t h e more p r o d u c t i v e s e c t o r s o f t h e economy and s h u n t e d more and more t o t h e l o w e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y w o r k , p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e and m e n i a l t a s k s w i t h i n t h e home. D e v e l o p m e n t i s n o t e n h a n c e d by moving women fr o m e c o n o m i c PAGE 44 a s s e t s ( o f t e n s y m b o l i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t e d by a b r i d e p r i c e ) t o e c o n o m i c l i a b i l i t i e s ( r e p r e s e n t e d by a d o w r y ) . In c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h i s , women's s t a t u s i n s o c i e t y and i n t h e home d i m i n i s h e s . T h i s i s n o t t o i m p l y t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t i s an e v i l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i s t o be a v o i d e d . On t h e c o n t r a r y , new t e c h n o l o g y i s u r g e n t l y n e e d e d . In one West A f r i c a n c o u n t r y , t h e f a c t t h a t t h e a v e r a g e l i f e e x p e c t a n c y o f women ( 35 y e a r s v e r s u s 52 f o r men) i s f a l l i n g i s a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e i n c r e a s e d s t r a i n o f c u l t i v a t i n g e v e r l a r g e r a c r e a g e as t h e s o i l becomes d e p l e t e d . What i s n e e d e d , t o use an u b i q u i t o u s c a t c h p h r a s e , i s ' a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n o l o g y ' , u n b i a s e d by s t e r e o t y p e d n o t i o n s o f t h e r o l e o f women w h i c h do n o t c o r r e s p o n d w i t h t h e r e a l i t y o f s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e y a r e a p p l i e d . The i m p a c t o f b i a s e d t e c h n o l o g y upon t h e v a l u e s o f s u b s i s t e n c e s o c i e t i e s i s o f t e n s e l f - f u l f i l l i n g . Women a r e assumed t o be o n l y w i v e s and m o t h e r s and t h e t e c h n o l o g y e n s u r e s t h a t t h e i r s t a t u s and p r o d u c t i v i t y a r e r e d u c e d t o s u c h . PAGE 45 CHAPTER TWO : THE THEORETICAL MODEL 2. 1 H y p o t h e s e s 1. The h y p o t h e s i s r e g a r d i n g t h e c o n n e c t i o n between women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e must be s t a t e d i n two p a r t s . a) I t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l change s h o u l d have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n modern s e c t o r i n d u s t r i e s - s p e c i f i c a l l y i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n I n d i a i n t h e l a t t e r h a l f o f t h e 1960s. b) R e g a r d l e s s o f t h e e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a d e c l i n i n g e conomy-wide r a t e o f f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n due t o a s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e and c o n s e q u e n t r e d u c e d a c c e s s o f women t o t h e means o f p r o d u c t i o n . T h u s , even when f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s r i s i n g i n a l l s e c t o r s i n c l u d i n g t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r s , t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r s ' r e l a t i v e s i z e may have t h i s e f f e c t . 2. T e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p and i n v e s t m e n t . W i t h t h e p r e s e n t d a t a s e t , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o t e s t a model w i t h r e g a r d t o 1a) and 2 f o r I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s b e t w e e n 1964 and 1969. F o r 1 b ) , a g g r e g a t e n a t i o n a l t i m e s e r i e s d a t a a r e r e q u i r e d and t h e p r e s e n t d a t a s e t h a s o n l y c r o s s s e c t i o n a l d a t a . PAGE 46 2.2 The M o d e l The t h e o r e t i c a l model c o n s i s t s o f f i v e s i m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n s . EQUATION 1: Women's P a r t i c i p a t i o n = f ( 1. T e c h n i c a l L e v e l i n I n d u s t r y i 2. Wages 3 . F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p 4. R e q u i r e d S k i l l s 5. I n d u s t r y - s p e c i f i c s o c i a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f t h o s e j o b s f o r women. 6. G e n e r a l c u l t u r a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f women w o r k i n g 7. P h y s i c a l s t r e n g t h r e q u i r e d . ) 1. The e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change on women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s has been d i s c u s s e d i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n . I t i s n o t c l e a r w h e t h e r t h e s i g n o f t h i s v a r i a b l e w i l l be p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e . O n l y i f t h e component o f j o b s d e s i g n a t e d by c u s t o m t o be f e m a l e was e x p a n d i n g as a r e s u l t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , c o u l d i t be i n f e r r e d t h a t t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f employment a c c o u n t e d f o r by women s h o u l d r i s e . Even i f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e i t s e l f was c o m p l e t e l y n e u t r a l , as l o n g as t h e r e i s g r e a t e r s o c i a l v a l u e p l a c e d on a l l o c a t i n g i n c r e m e n t a l j o b s t o men t h a n t o women, one m i g h t o b s e r v e a s m a l l n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t p r o v i d e d t h e r e was a l a r g e p o o l o f u n e m p l o y e d t o draw f r o m . I t must be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e t o t a l e f f e c t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange on women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s n o t r e s t r i c t e d t o o n l y t h e d i r e c t e f f e c t s . T e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e w i l l a f f e c t wages i n t h e i n d u s t r y , t h e t y p e o f j o b s PAGE 47 and t h e i r r e q u i r e d s k i l l s , a s w e l l as t h e s o c i a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f w o r k i n g i n t h a t i n d u s t r y . The r e s u l t i n g c h a n g e s i n t h e s e v a r i a b l e s w i l l f e e d back and make an a d d i t i o n a l i m p a c t upon t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n t h a t i n d u s t r y . 2. One w o u l d e x p e c t r i s i n g wages t o a t t r a c t more women i n t o an i n d u s t r y . R i s i n g wages h o w e v e r , s h o u l d a l s o a t t r a c t men i n t o t h e i n d u s t r y and s o , u n l e s s t h e i n d u s t r y i s composed o f s e x - s p e c i f i c j o b s ( w h i c h may i n f a c t be a good a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f r e a l i t y ) , p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t i o s s h o u l d n o t c h a n g e . Even i n a l a b o u r s u r p l u s economy, t y p i c a l o f many LDCs, r i s i n g wages need n o t draw on t h e u n e m p l o y e d l a b o u r p o o l d i r e c t l y . T h i s may be i m p o r t a n t as i n most c o u n t r i e s t h e unemployment r a t e i s h i g h e r f o r women t h a n f o r men. T h i s may be even g r e a t e r t h a n i t a p p e a r s s t a t i s t i c a l l y a s women a r e more l i k e l y t h a n men t o s l i d e i n t o t h e h i d d e n unemployment c a t e g o r y , ' d i s c o u r a g e d w o r k e r ' , c o u n t e d as 'not i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e ' , s i n c e t h e y a r e more l i k e l y t o assume h o u s e h o l d d u t i e s and r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w h i l e u n e m p l o y e d . I t may j u s t be a s i g n a l f o r a change i n t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f s k i l l e d l a b o u r b e t ween i n d u s t r i e s . I f one assumes h i g h e r s k i l l l e v e l s ( g r e a t e r human c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t ) on a v e r a g e i n men as w e l l as g r e a t e r m o b i l i t y f o r men, one m i g h t e x p e c t a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f men i n t h e i n d u s t r y as a r e s u l t o f t h e h i g h e r r e l a t i v e wages. The l o w e r - s k i l l - l e v e l j o b s v a c a t e d by m o b i l e e m p l o y e e s f r o m o t h e r I n d u s t r i e s ( o r PAGE 48 b r a n c h e s o f t h e same i n d u s t r y ) n i g h t be f i l l e d by u n e m p l o y e d women ( a n d men). Even i n t h e a b s e n c e o f d i s c r i m i n a t i o n ( g r e a t e r s o c i a l v a l u e p l a c e d on p r o v i d i n g employment t o men), men's g r e a t e r m o b i l i t y m i g h t g i v e them an edge i n f i l l i n g t h e l o w e r s k i l l j o b s . O n l y i n t h e c a s e where male l a b o u r i s i n s c a r c e s u p p l y , w o u l d one e x p e c t t o s e e f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r i s i n g i n an i n d u s t r y , i n r e s p o n s e t o r i s i n g w ages. An e x c e p t i o n , o f c o u r s e , i s where s e x - s p e c i f i c f e m a l e j o b s a r e e x p a n d i n g f a s t e r r e l a t i v e t o t h e o t h e r t a s k s i n t h e i n d u s t r y . 3 . The i m p a c t o f f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p upon women's l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l depend on t h e r e l a t i v e l e v e l s o f f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e i n d u s t r y i n t h e ' h o s t ' c o u n t r y v e r s u s t h e 'home* c o u n t r y . I f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n t h e i n d u s t r y i s c u r r e n t l y h i g h e r i n t h e h o s t c o u n t r i e s one w o u l d e x p e c t a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t on t h e l a b o u r demand s i d e upon f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n as a r e s u l t o f f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t . 4. One w o u l d e x p e c t a n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n b e t w een s k i l l r e q u i r e m e n t s and p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n t h e i n d u s t r y i n c u l t u r e s where t h e r e i s g r e a t e r i n v e s t m e n t i n male human c a p i t a l , e x c e p t i n o c c u p a t i o n s where men a r e p r e c l u d e d by c u s t o m , s u c h as i n n u r s i n g . 5. The more s o c i a l l y a c c e p t a b l e s u c h i n d u s t r y s p e c i f i c e m p loyment i s f o r women, ( f o r e x a m p l e , n u r s i n g and t e a c h i n g ) , t h e h i g h e r t h e f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h a t PAGE 49 i n d u s t r y i s l i k e l y t o be u n l e s s i t i s a l r e a d y e x c l u s i v e l y f e m a l e . 6. The more c u l t u r a l l y a c c e p t a b l e employment i n g e n e r a l i s f o r women a t a p a r t i c u l a r t i m e and p l a c e , t h e h i g h e r t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women a c r o s s a l l i n d u s t r i e s i s l i k e l y t o be. EQUATION 2: T e c h n o l o g i c a l = f ( 1. E x t e r n a l l y I n d u c e d T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r Change a) F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t b) F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p c) O t h e r F o r e i g n s o u r c e s 2. I n t e r n a l l y I n d u c e d T e c h n o l o g y T r a n s f e r a) P r i v a t e D o m e s t i c I n n o v a t i o n b) G o v ' t I n d u c e d T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change 3 . E n d o g e n e o u s l y P r o d u c e d T e c h n i c a l Change a) S c a l e o f P r o d u c t i o n b) R e l a t i v e F a c t o r C o s t s ) 1 a ) . P r o v i d e d t h a t t h e f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t o r i g i n a t e s f r o m t h o s e w i t h a g r e a t e r t e c h n i c a l k n o w l e d g e o f p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e r e l e v a n t i n d u s t r y , a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t e c h n i c a l c hange and f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t i s e x p e c t e d . T h i s i s a r e a s o n a b l e a s s u m p t i o n as f i r m s w h i c h i n v e s t a b r o a d must e x p e c t t o compete s u c c e s s f u l l y d e s p i t e t h e I n h e r e n t d i f f i c u l t i e s o f o p e r a t i n g i n an a l i e n e n v i r o n m e n t and u n d e r u n f a m i l i a r i n s t i t u t i o n s , w i t h a t t e n d e n t r i s k s and d i m i n i s h e d l e g a l p r o t e c t i o n . T h e s e must be b e l i e v e d t o be o f f s e t by some a d v a n t a g e s o f a f i n a n c i a l , m a r k e t i n g , p r o d u c t i o n , o r m a n a g e r i a l n a t u r e o v e r i n d i g e n o u s f i r m s . Of t h e s e a s p e c t s , a t l e a s t p r o d u c t i o n and m a n a g e r i a l s k i l l s may be c o n s i d e r e d t o embody o r i n v o l v e ' t e c h n o l o g y ' o r t e c h n i c a l a b i l i t y . PAGE 50 b) I f t h e r a t e o f i n n o v a t i o n a t t h e s o u r c e o f f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t i s a t l e a s t as g r e a t as t h e d o m e s t i c l e v e l o f i n n o v a t i o n i n t h e ' h o s t ' c o u n t r y i n d u s t r y , o r i f t h e f o r e i g n i n v e s t o r s i n t r o d u c e t h e i r ' s t a t e o f t h e a r t ' t e c h n o l o g y g r a d u a l l y t o t h e h o s t c o u n t r y o p e r a t i o n s , i t might be e x p e c t e d t h a t f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p w i l l c o n t i n u e t o have a p o s i t i v e impact on t e c h n o l o g i c a l change. c) S c i e n t i f i c e x c hange, b i l a t e r a l and m u l t i l a t e r a l a i d e f f o r t s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y o f l a b o u r , e s p e c i a l l y s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l , a r e a few o f the o t h e r p o t e n t i a l means o f t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r . 2 a ) . O t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , t h e h i g h e r t h e l e v e l o f d o m e s t i c i n n o v a t i o n , the h i g h e r t h e l e v e l o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . 2 b ) . Government p r o j e c t s and g o v e r n m e n t - s p o n s e r e d r e s e a r c h may p r o d u c e t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . 3 a ) . Changes i n t h e c h o i c e o f t e c h n i q u e may o c c u r s i m p l y due t o a change i n t h e s c a l e o f p r o d u c t i o n . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t e c h n i q u e s w h i c h a r e o p t i m a l f o r low e r l e v e l s o f p r o d u c t i o n may be r e p l a c e d by methods which p r e v a i l a t h i g h e r l e v e l s o f o u t p u t , t h i s w i l l a p p e a r as ' t e c h n o l o g i c a l change'. B a r a n s o n * and M o r l e y 4 S m i t h 1 1 * b o t h d i s c u s s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e r o l e o f s c a l e o f p r o d u c t i o n i n c h o i c e o f t e c h n i q u e by PAGE 5 1 MNCs i n l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . 3 b ) . W h i l e one o f t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f o r t h o d o x e c o n o m i c t h e o r y r e s t s on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t p r o d u c t i o n l s o q u a n t s and f a c t o r p r i c e s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t , i t i s i n c r e a s i n g l y r e c o g n i z e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t l i t e r a t u r e t h a t o v e r t h e l o n g r u n , d e v e l o p m e n t o f t e c h n i q u e s i s i n f l u e n c e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g r e l a t i v e f a c t o r p r i c e s . 'In a p r o f i t - m a x i m i z i n g p e r f e c t l y c o m p e t i t i v e economy one can be more p r e c i s e a b o u t t h e n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n s f o r s u c c e s s f u l i n n o v a t i o n - v i z . , . g i v e n t h e r u l i n g p r i c e s o f r e s o u r c e s and p r o d u c t s , t h e new t e c h n i q u e w i l l g e n e r a t e more t h a n n o r m a l p r o f i t . In t h e more r e a l w o r l d o f m a r k e t i m p e r f e c t i o n s , and v a r i e d m o t i v a t i o n among i n n o v a t o r s , i t i s s t i l l t r u e t h a t a new i n n o v a t i o n i n a c a p i t a l i s t economy must f i t s u f f i c i e n t l y w e l l w i t h r e s o u r c e c o s t s and m a r k e t s t o p r o d u c e l o n g - r u n p r o f i t s . W hether o r n o t a t e c h n i q u e i s i n t r o d u c e d and d e v e l o p e d i s t h u s f i r m l y a n c h o r e d i n t h e h i s t o r i c and e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e d a t e a t w h i c h i t i s i n t r o d u c e d . ' * * * A c h a n g e i n r e l a t i v e f a c t o r p r i c e s ( p r o v i d e d t h i s i s i n t h e same d i r e c t i o n as t h e l o n g t e r m t r e n d ) may be e x p e c t e d t o s p u r t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . I f t h e r e l a t i v e f a c t o r p r i c e s c h a n g e , e x i s t i n g t e c h n i q u e s c l o s e t o t h e * J . B a r a n s o n , ' T r a n s f e r o f T e c h n i c a l K n o w l e d g e by I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o r p o r a t i o n s t o D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s ' . AER May 1966. pp. 2 5 9 - 2 6 7 . •• S.A. M o r l e y & G.W. S m i t h . 'The C h o i c e o f T e c h n o l o g y : M u l t i n a t i o n a l F i r m s i n B r a z i l ' , E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t and  C u l t u r a l C h a n g e , J a n . 1977. pp. 2 3 9 - 2 6 1 . F. S t e w a r t , T e c h n o l o g y and U n d e r d e v e l o p m e n t , pp. 3-4. PAGE 52 m a r g i n w o u l d no l o n g e r g e n e r a t e n o r m a l p r o f i t . T h i s w o u l d c r e a t e f o r c e s o f d i s e q u i l i b r i u m c a u s i n g some o f t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s ( a n d p o s s i b l y p r o d u c t s ) t o d i s a p p e a r , o t h e r s t o chan g e f o r m and s t i l l o t h e r s t o emerge. O t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , t h e p r o b l e m - s o l v i n g r e s e a r c h and a c t i v i t y d e v o t e d t o i n v e n t i o n and i n n o v a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o be h i g h e r a t t h a t t i m e t h a n i n p e r i o d s o f ' e q u i l i b r i u m ' , and so t o o may be t h e r e s u l t i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . EQUATION 3 : Wages = f ( 1. P r o p o r t i o n o f Women Em p l o y e d 2. T e c h n i c a l L e v e l 3 . P r o d u c t i v i t y 4. F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p 5. S c a r c i t y o f R e q u i r e d S k i l l s ) 1. O t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , i n t h e p r e s e n c e o f e i t h e r d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o r l o w e r m o b i l i t y o f women t h a n men, i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t i n d u s t r i e s w i t h a h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f women w o u l d have l o w e r wages t h a n t h o s e w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y g r e a t e r c o n c e n t r a t i d n o f men. 2. T e c h n i c a l L e v e l i s d e f i n e d t o be t h e o u t p u t p e r e m p l o y e e ( p r o d u c t i v i t y ) n o t a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f c a p i t a l . The h i g h e r t h i s l e v e l , t h e h i g h e r wages a r e e x p e c t e d t o be, c e t e r i u s p a r i b u s . 3 . T h i s v a r i a b l e i s o u t p u t p e r e m p l o y e e u n a d j u s t e d by t h e c a p i t a l l a b o u r r a t i o . P r o d u c t i v i t y ( a n d hence wages) may be h i g h , o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , s i m p l y due t o l a r g e amounts PAGE 5 3 o f c a p i t a l p e r e m p l o y e e . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e wage b i l l i s l i k e l y t o be a s m a l l e r component o f t o t a l c o s t s . A s s u m i n g f i r m s have some power i n t h e l a b o u r m a r k e t , i f t h e o p e r a t i n g p o i n t i s a t a l e v e l o f o u t p u t p a s t t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e a v e r a g e and m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t c u r v e s , t h e h i g h e r t h i s p o i n t o f o p e r a t i o n on t h e m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t c u r v e , t h e h i g h e r t h e a v e r a g e p r o d u c t and t h e wage. 4. A p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p b etween wages and f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p i s e x p e c t e d f o r t h r e e r e a s o n s : a) H a b i t p e r s i s t e n c e . I f wages a r e h i g h e r i n t h e 'home' c o u n t r y , l e s s m a n a g e r i a l a t t e n t i o n may be d e v o t e d t o k e e p i n g ' h o s t ' c o u n t r y wages t o t h e minimum n e c e s s a r y l e v e l s . b) B u y i n g ' G o o d w i l l ' and ' L a b o u r P e a c e ' . O p e r a t i n g i n an a l i e n e n v i r o n m e n t , t h e f i r m may use t h e r i s k a v e r t i n g s t r a t e g y o f a t t e m p t i n g t o c r e a t e i n d i g e n o u s g r o u p s w i t h a v e s t e d i n t e r e s t i n k e e p i n g t h e f i r m t h e r e . In o r d e r t o r e d u c e t h e c h a n c e s o f a t t r a c t i n g u n d e s i r a b l e p o l i t i c a l a t t e n t i o n and t o r e d u c e r e l i a n c e on management s k i l l i n an u n f a m i l i a r l a b o u r e n v i r o n m e n t , t h e f i r m may be w i l l i n g t o pay premium wages. c ) As d i s c u s s e d a b o v e , i f t h e f o r e i g n f i r m does p o s s e s s a s i g n i f i c a n t a d v a n t a g e , i t may have a g r e a t e r ' a b i l i t y t o p a y ' . PAGE 54 5. The s c a r c e r n e c e s s a r y s k i l l s a r e , t h e h i g h e r wages a r e e x p e c t e d t o be. EQUATION 4: P r o d u c t i v i t y = f ( 1 . L e v e l o f Employment 2. T e c h n i c a l L e v e l 3. C a p i t a l L a b o u r R a t i o ) 1. P r o v i d e d t h e f i r m i s p r o d u c i n g beyond t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f A v e r a g e P r o d u c t and M a r g i n a l P r o d u c t C u r v e s , t h e h i g h e r t h e l e v e l o f e m p l o y m e n t , t h e l o w e r t h e A v e r a g e P r o d u c t ( P r o d u c t i v i t y ) w i l l be, due t o ' D i m i n i s h i n g R e t u r n s ' , o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g c o n s t a n t . 2. The h i g h e r t h e ' t e c h n i c a l l e v e l * , t h e h i g h e r t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y i s l i k e l y t o be, o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l . 3 . An i n c r e a s e i n c a p i t a l p e r e m p l o y e e i s e x p e c t e d t o r a i s e l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y . EQUATION 5: C a p i t a l L a b o u r R a t i o = f ( 1. S c a l e o f O u t p u t 2. F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p 3 . R e l a t i v e F a c t o r P r i c e s ) 1. I t has been a r g u e d by MNCs t h a t l a r g e s c a l e o p e r a t i o n s a r e n e c e s s a r i l y more c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e t h a n s m a l l e r o n e s . * 2. F o r e i g n f i r m s a r e l i k e l y t o be b e t t e r a c q u a i n t e d w i t h more c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e t h a n l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e t e c h n i q u e s i f t h e y come f r o m an e n v i r o n m e n t o f h i g h e r r e l a t i v e l a b o u r *0p. c i t . , p p . 2 3 9 - 2 6 4 . PAGE 5 5 c o s t s . In a d d i t i o n , i t may r e d u c e r i s k b o t h i n l a b o u r and p o l i t i c a l a r e n a s t o be l e s s d e p e n d e n t on l a b o u r . 3 . The h i g h e r wage r a t e s r e l a t i v e t o i n t e r e s t r a t e s , t h e h i g h e r t h e c a p i t a l l a b o u r r a t i o i s l i k e l y t o be. PAGE 56 CHAPTER THREE: THE DATA 3.1 D e s c r i p t i o n The d a t a s e t c o n s i s t s o f t h i r t e e n o b s e r v a t i o n s , t w e l v e o f w h i c h r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s and t h e t h i r t e e n t h , t h e I n d i a n E l e c t r i c and Gas I n d u s t r y . E a c h o b s e r v a t i o n i s c o m p r i s e d o f n i n e v a r i a b l e s , e i g h t o f w h i c h were o b t a i n e d by c a l c u l a t i n g t h e l e v e l i n 1964, t h e l e v e l i n 1969, and t a k i n g t h e p e r c e n t a g e change o v e r t h e 5 y e a r p e r i o d u s i n g 1964 a s t h e b a s e . The e x c e p t i o n i s ' L e v e l o f F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p ' . T h e s e n i n e v a r i a b l e s a r e : 'Change i n P a r t i c i p a t i o n ' ( P a r t ) , • T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change' ( T C H ) , •Change i n R e a l Wages' (W), 'Change i n P r o d u c t i v i t y ' ( O E ) , •Change i n t h e L e v e l o f R e a l O u t p u t ' ( 0 ) , 'Change i n t h e L e v e l o f Employment* ( E ) , 'Change i n t h e C a p i t a l L a b o u r R a t i o ' ( K E ) , • L e v e l o f F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p ' (FRON), ' F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t * ( F I ) . PAGE 5 7 3.2 M e a s u r e m e n t and S o u r c e o f V a r i a b l e s 1. PART (Change i n Women's P a r t i c i p a t i o n ) D a t a f o r t h i s v a r i a b l e were c o l l e c t e d f r o m t h e t a b l e ' T o t a l A v e r a g e D a i l y E mployment and Women Employment (By M a j o r I n d u s t r i e s ) ' f r o m v a r i o u s i s s u e s o f t h e I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s p r o d u c e d by t h e I n d i a n L a b o u r B u r e a u . 2. TCH ( T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change) T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change was c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g t h e S o l o w M e a s u r e . T h i s p r o d u c e s an e s t i m a t e o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange as a r e s i d u a l . T h a t p o r t i o n o f i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i v i t y , o v e r a g i v e n t i m e p e r i o d , w h i c h c a n n o t be a t t r i b u t e d t o an i n c r e a s e d C a p i t a l L a b o u r R a t i o , i s t a k e n t o be t h e measure o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . TCH = ( 0 / E ) - r k ( K /E ) 0 = The p e r c e n t a g e change i n r e a l o u t p u t between 1969 and 1964 u s i n g t h e ' I m p l i c i t P r i c e D e f l a t o r I n d e x o f G r o s s D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t ' f o r I n d i a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s from t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Y e a r b o o k o f N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t s S t a t i s t i c s . The s o u r c e f o r t h e N o m i n a l O u t p u t was ' V a l u e Added by M a n u f a c t u r e ' f r o m t h e t a b l e ' A n n u a l S u r v e y o f I n d u s t r i e s -by I n d u s t r i e s ' i n v a r i o u s i s s u e s o f t h e S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t  I n d i a . E = The p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n t h e 'Number o f P e r s o n s E m p l o y e d ' f r o m t h e same t a b l e i n t h e S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t I n d i a . PAGE 58 K = The p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n r e a l ' P r o d u c t i v e C a p i t a l ' . P r o d u c t i v e C a p i t a l was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e above s o u r c e as w e l l . I n o r d e r t o c o n v e r t P r o d u c t i v e C a p i t a l t o c o m p a r a b l e r e a l d o l l a r t e r m s , t h e f o l l o w i n g p r o c e d u r e was u s e d . I n d u s t r y s p e c i f i c w e i g h t s were a p p l i e d t o d e t e r m i n e what p o r t i o n o f P r o d u c t i v e C a p i t a l was F i x e d C a p i t a l and what p o r t i o n was W o r k i n g C a p i t a l . F i x e d C a p i t a l was t l e n d e p r e c i a t e d . The amount o f d e p r e c i a t i o n , p l u s t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n ' F i x e d C a p i t a l ' f o r two a d j a c e n t y e a r s ( t h e n e t n o m i n a l amount a d d e d ) , p l u s t h e amount o f W o r k i n g C a p i t a l was d e f l a t e d . The d e f l a t o r u s e d was t h e ' I m p l i c i t P r i c e D e f l a t o r I n d e x o f G r o s s C a p i t a l F o r m a t i o n ' f o r M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s f o r I n d i a . T h i s i n d e x was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Y e a r b o o k o f N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t s  S t a t i s t i c s . R e a l P r o d u c t i v e C a p i t a l was c a l c u l a t e d as t h i s d e f l a t e d q u a n t i t y p l u s d e p r e c i a t e d f i x e d c a p i t a l . r k = ( 1 - rw ) , C a p i t a l ' s s h a r e i n F a c t o r C o s t s . rw = a v e r a g e o f ( W4S/CPI ) / VA f o r t h e y e a r s 1963, 1964, 1968, and 1969 w h e r e : W&S r 'Per C a p i t a A n n u a l Money E a r n i n g s o f W o r k e r s i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s ' i n I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s . VA = R e a l V a l u e Added as c a l c u l a t e d f o r p r o d u c i n g v a r i a b l e 0 a b o v e . CP I = 'Consumer P r i c e I n d e x Numbers f o r W o r k i n g C l a s s f o r A l l I n d i a - G e n e r a l I n d e x ' , i n I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s . PAGE 59 An a t t e m p t was made t o a d j u s t t h i s measure o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e f o r c h a n g e s i n c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n , b u t a d e q u a t e d a t a f o r t h e a p p r o p r i a t e y e a r s c o u l d n o t be f o u n d . The a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g t h e S o l o w m e a s u r e a r e : i ) C o n s t a n t R e t u r n s t o S c a l e . I f , i n f a c t , an i n d u s t r y ' s p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n e x h i b i t s i n c r e a s i n g o r d e c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s t o s c a l e , t h i s w i l l b i a s t h e measure o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e upwards o r downwards r e s p e c t i v e l y . i i ) T e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i s n e u t r a l i n t h a t i t i n c r e a s e s t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y o f l a b o u r and t h a t o f c a p i t a l p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y . i i i ) R e l a t i v e s h a r e s b e tween c a p i t a l and l a b o u r r e m a i n c o n s t a n t . T h i s w o u l d be a weak a s s u m p t i o n i f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e c h a n g e s t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n i t s e l f . F o r C a n a d a , t h e a g g r e g a t e r e l a t i v e f a c t o r s h a r e s o v e r t h e p a s t h a l f c e n t u r y have r e m a i n e d a l m o s t c o n s t a n t . (The S o l o w measure was o r i g i n a l l y d e v e l o p e d as an a g g r e g a t e i n d e x f o r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . ) H o w e v e r , when one b e g i n s t o d i s a g g r e g a t e by i n d u s t r y , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y , t h e p i c t u r e can be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t . F o r b o t h M a l a y s i a and I n d i a , r a t h e r l a r g e c h a n g e s i n r e l a t i v e f a c t o r s h a r e s were o b s e r v e d i n i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s . However, t h e a u t h o r ' s c a l c u l a t i o n s showed t h a t t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e o v e r a l l m e a s u r e o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange t o a p p a r e n t l y l a r g e c h a n g e s i n t h e r e l a t i v e f a c t o r s h a r e s f o r t h e I n d i a n PAGE 60 i n d u s t r i e s was v e r y s m a l l . P r e s u m a b l y t h e same w o u l d have been t r u e f o r t h e M a l a y s i a n d a t a s e t b u t t h e a n a l y s i s on t h i s d a t a s e t was n o t p u r s u e d due t o a l a c k o f r e l i a b l e o b s e r v a t i o n s . 3 . W (Change i n R e a l Wages). Wages and S a l a r i e s were o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e t a b l e 'Per C a p i t a A n n u a l Money E a r n i n g s o f W o r k e r s i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s * i n v a r i o u s i s s u e s o f I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s . T h ese were d e f l a t e d by t h e 'Consumer P r i c e I n d e x Number f o r W o r k i n g C l a s s f o r A l l I n d i a - G e n e r a l I n d e x ' o b t a i n e d f r o m I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s . 4. OE (Change i n P r o d u c t i v i t y ) . T h i s v a r i a b l e was d e r i v e d as t h e 0 / E t e r m i n TCH. 5. 0 (Change i n t h e L e v e l o f R e a l O u t p u t ) . The 0 t e r m from TCH i s i d e n t i c a l t o 0. 6. E (Change i n t h e L e v e l o f E m p l o y m e n t ) . T h i s was d e r i v e d as t h e E t e r m f r o m TCH. 7. KE (Change i n t h e C a p i t a l L a b o u r R a t i o ) . ( K / E ) f r o m TCH i s i d e n t i c a l t o KE. 8. FRON ( L e v e l o f F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p ) T h i s i s c a l c u l a t e d by t a k i n g ' D i r e c t I n v e s t m e n t C a p i t a l Component o f O u t s t a n d i n g Long Term F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t s i n C o r p o r a t e and C o m m e r c i a l E n t e r p r i s e s ' by i n d u s t r y a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1964 and e x p r e s s i n g t h i s as a p e r c e n t a g e o f P r o d u c t i v e C a p i t a l f o r PAGE 6 1 t h e i n d u s t r y . Whether t h i s g i v e s t h e a c t u a l l e v e l o f F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p by i n d u s t r y a c c u r a t e l y ( f o r 1964) does n o t m a t t e r , p r o v i d i n g i t a p p r o x i m a t e s f a i r l y c l o s e l y a m o n o t o n i a t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h i s v a r i a b l e i n t h e r e l e v a n t r a n g e . 9. F I ( F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t ) . The l a s t v a r i a b l e , ' F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t ' , ( F I ) was c a l c u l a t e d by d e t e r m i n i n g t h e ' L e v e l o f F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p ' a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1969 by t h e same p r o c e d u r e as d e s c r i b e d above and t a k i n g t h e p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e between 1969 and 1964. By t a k i n g ' p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e s ' i n s t e a d o f ' l e v e l s ' , and by t a k i n g a c r o s s s e c t i o n , many o f t h e i n d u s t r y - s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and d e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s h ave been h e l d c o n s t a n t . The ' G e n e r a l C u l t u r a l A c c e p t a b i l i t y o f Women W o r k i n g ' i s h e l d c o n s t a n t by v i r t u e o f r e f e r e n c e t o a s i n g l e t i m e p e r i o d . I n d u s t r y - s p e c i f i c s o c i a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f f e m a l e employment may be assumed c o n s t a n t i f s o c i a l a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d s v a r i o u s i n d u s t r i e s as p l a c e s o f employment f o r women ch a n g e d p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y t o t h e a t t i t u d e h e l d i n 1964, f o r a l l i n d u s t r i e s , o v e r t h e p e r i o d 1964 t o 1969. D o m e s t i c i n n o v a t i o n has been assumed t o have o c c u r r e d a t a c o n s t a n t p r o p o r t i o n o f e a c h i n d u s t r y ' s ' T e c h n i c a l L e v e l ' i n 1964. No I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y i n t h e l a t t e r h a l f o f t h e s i x t i e s c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d as t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h o s e i n t h e d e v e l o p e d PAGE 62 c o u n t r i e s , so i t seems s a f e t o assume t h a t t h e b u l k o f c o m m e r c i a l i n n o v a t i o n was a t l e a s t i n f l u e n c e d by i d e a s f r o m a b r o a d r a t h e r t h a n p u r e l y d o m e s t i c a l l y g e n e r a t e d . T h e r e f o r e , a t b e s t , d o m e s t i c i n n o v a t i o n may be assumed t o p l a y a f a i r l y m i n o r r o l e i n t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l i m p r o v e m e n t s o f t h i s p e r i o d . ' S c a r c i t y o f R e q u i r e d S k i l l s ' i s assumed t o h ave r e m a i n e d c o n s t a n t d u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d f o r e a c h i n d u s t r y , o r t o have c h a n g e d by t h e same p r o p o r t i o n i n a l l i n d u s t r i e s . The m a j o r s h i f t i n t h e I n d i a n economy i n v o l v i n g g r e a t e r m i l i t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e s a t t h e e x p e n s e o f i n d u s t r y o c c u r r e d i n t h e e a r l y 1960s a f t e r t h e war w i t h C h i n a . D u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1964 t o 1969 t h e r e was a l a r g e o v e r s u p p l y o f t e c h n i c a l and h i g h l y s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l . T h e r e i s , o f c o u r s e , a p e r p e t u a l o v e r s u p p l y o f u n s k i l l e d and s e m i - s k i l l e d l a b o u r . S i n c e i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o measure t h e c h a n g e s i n t h e ' R e q u i r e d S k i l l ' l e v e l s f o r e a c h i n d u s t r y , and c h a n g e s i n ' P h y s i c a l S t r e n g t h ' r e q u i r e d , t h e p r o x y 'Changes i n t h e C a p i t a l L a b o u r R a t i o * has been c h o s e n t o r e p r e s e n t t h e n e t e f f e c t o f t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s i n t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n e q u a t i o n . S i n c e t h e v a r i a b l e s have been e x p r e s s e d as p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e s i n most c a s e s , r a t h e r t h a n as l e v e l s , a l l t h e e q u a t i o n s o f t h e s i m u l t a n e o u s model e x c e p t f o r E q u a t i o n 2, t h e T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change e q u a t i o n , a r e a f f e c t e d . T h i s i n v o l v e s r e p l a c i n g t h e l e v e l w i t h t h e p e r c e n t a g e change f o r PAGE 63 th e a p p r o p r i a t e v a r i a b l e s , r e a d i n g F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t f o r F o r e i g n O w n e r s h i p i n E q u a t i o n s 1, 3, and 5, and s u b s t i t u t i n g T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change f o r T e c h n i c a l L e v e l i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e e q u a t i o n s . L a s t l y , as an i n d u s t r y - s p e c i f i c i n t e r e s t r a t e was not a v a i l a b l e , i t w i l l be assumed t h e change i n t h e c o s t o f c a p i t a l was the same f o r a l l i n d u s t r i e s d u r i n g the p e r i o d . The change i n t h e wage w i l l be used t o a p p r o x i m a t e t h e change i n t h e r e l a t i v e f a c t o r c o s t s f o r each i n d u s t r y i n t h e T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change and C a p i t a l Labour R a t i o E q u a t i o n s . PAGE 64 CHAPTER FOUR : THE FINAL MODEL The E m p i r i c a l M o d e l The S i m u l t a n e o u s E q u a t i o n M o d e l may now be p r e s e n t e d s y m b o l i c a l l y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f o r m : P A R T T C H W F I KE FRO N OE 1 0 •C31 0 0 - C 1 2 1 - C 3 2 - C 4 2 0 - C 1 3 - C 2 3 1 0 - C 5 3 - c m - C 2 4 - C 3 4 0 - C 5 4 -C 15 0 0 - C 4 5 1 0 • C 2 6 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 - C 2 7 0 0 0 - C 3 8 0 0 1 - C 4 9 - C 5 7 0 0 PAGE 65 4.2 I d e n t i f i c a t i o n S i n c e i t i s e q u a t i o n s one and two w h i c h a r e o f i n t e r e s t , t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s must be c h e c k e d f o r b o t h . E q u a t i o n One: O r d e r C o n d i t i o n The number o f o m i t t e d v a r i a b l e s i s 4, w h i c h i s e q u a l t o t h e number o f e q u a t i o n s l e s s 1. T h e r e f o r e , t h e o r d e r c o n d i t i o n h o l d s . Rank C o n d i t i o n I t must be p o s s i b l e t o f i n d a n o n - z e r o 4 X 4 d e t e r m i n a n t , f o r m e d f r o m t h e o m i t t e d v a r i a b l e s and t h e o t h e r e q u a t i o n s . J - C 2 5 - C 2 7 I 0 . 0 j o - 0 I 0 - C 5 7 = C 2 5 C 3 8 C 4 9 C 5 7 i 0 0 0 - C 3 8 0 1 - C 4 9 0 0 - C 2 5 0 - C 3 8 0 0 1 - C 4 9 - C 5 7 0 0 p r o v i d e d none o f t h e f o u r c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e z e r o . T h e r e f o r e t h e P a r t i c i p a t i o n e q u a t i o n i s j u s t - i d e n t i f i e d and can be e s t i m a t e d e q u i v a l e n t l y by Two S t a g e L e a s t S q u a r e s o r f r o m t h e Reduced Form. PAGE 66 E q u a t i o n Two: O r d e r C o n d i t i o n As t h e r e a r e a g a i n f o u r o m i t t e d v a r i a b l e s , t h e o r d e r c o n d i t i o n h o l d s . Rank C o n d i t i o n 1 - C 3 1 0 0 - C 1 5 0 - C 4 5 1 - C 3 8 1 0 0 0 - C 4 9 0 C 4 9 1 -C 3 1 0 • C 1 5 0 1 0 •C3 8 0 C 4 9 C 3 8 p r o v i d e d n e i t h e r C38 n o r C19 i s e q u a l t o z e r o . T h e r e f o r e t h i s e q u a t i o n i s a l s o e x a c t l y i d e n t i f i e d . CHAPTER FIVE : RESULTS PAGE 67 5.1 Summary R e g r e s s i o n R e s u l t s OLS R*=.58 R a r . 3 9 F =2.8 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l ) ( 1 ) PART = 13.5 + .78 TCH + .75 W • 2.1 F I + 1.46 KE The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f TCH and KE a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5% l e v e l . The c o e f f i c i e n t o f F I i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l . 2SLS R a=.92 R 3=.88 F r 2 3 . 9 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 1% l e v e l ) ( 2 ) TCH = -6.44 + .66 0 + 3.25 F I - 3.53W + 1.26 FRON The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f 0 and W a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 1% l e v e l . The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f F I and FRON a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5% l e v e l . T h e r e i s a p o s s i b l e m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y p r o b l e m b e t w e e n F I and FRON. PAGE 68 5.2 D e t a i l e d R e s u l t s o f t h e R e g r e s s i o n s E q u a t i o n 1 : The P a r t i c i p a t i o n E q u a t i o n The d a t a was a p p l i e d u s i n g b o t h t h e s i m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n model and OLS. The Wu t e s t f o r e x o g e n e i t y was p e r f o r m e d t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e v a r i a b l e s w h i c h were assumed t o be end o g e n o u s i n t h i s e q u a t i o n c o u l d a c t u a l l y be t r e a t e d as e x o g e n o u s . I t t u r n e d o u t t h a t s u c h was t h e c a s e ( s e e A p p e n d i x ) . OLS R*=.58 R A = . 3 9 F = 2.8 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l ) . ( 1 ) PART = 1 3 . 5 + .78 TCH + .75 W + 2.1 F I + 1.46 KE The c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r TCH and KE were s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5% l e v e l a n d , f o r F I , a t t h e 10% l e v e l . T h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w een t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s b u t t h e h i g h e s t a r e -.73 between TCH and F I , and -.70 between KE and F I . T h i s s h o u l d n o t c a u s e s e v e r e m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . Though OLS was f o u n d t o be t h e a p p r o p r i a t e model f o r t h i s e q u a t i o n , t h e Two S t a g e L e a s t S q u a r e r e s u l t s a r e a l s o p r e s e n t e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f c o m p a r i s o n . 2SLS R a = .41 R*=.15 F =1.4 ( n o t s i g n i f i c a n t ) PART = 82.21 + .02 TCH • 4.95 W + 1.70 F I + 3.92 KE O n l y t h e c o n s t a n t and KE a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . PAGE 69 E q u a t i o n 2: The T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change E q u a t i o n F o r t h e T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change E q u a t i o n , t h e o v e r a l l F f o r b o t h Two S t a g e L e a s t S q u a r e s and OLS i n d i c a t e d i n s i g n i f i c a n c e , and t h e c o r r e c t e d R a s were v e r y l o w . OLS R* =. 42 R a = . 15 F = 1.45 TCH = 25.9 + . 6 0 - 3.2 F I - 1 . 2 W - 1 . 7 FRON N e i t h e r t h e F n o r any c o e f f i c i e n t s ( e x c e p t t h e c o n s t a n t ) a r e s i g n i f i c a n t . 2SLS R a = . 3 2 R a s . 0 3 F =.93 TCH = 25.6 + . 6 0 - 3.2 F I - 1 . 1 W - 1 . 7 FRON N e i t h e r t h e F n o r any c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t . S i n c e t h e u n d e r l y i n g d a t a a p p e a r e d t o have a f a i r amount o f • n o i s e ' , TCH and KE were r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g a t h r e e y e a r m o v i n g a v e r a g e . In o t h e r w o r d s , t h e p e r c e n t a g e change t a k e n f o r e a c h , was t h a t o f t h e a v e r a g e f o r 1968, 1969, and 1970, as a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e a v e r a g e f o r 1963, 1964, and 1965. T h i s was n o t p o s s i b l e t o do f o r FRON and F I , so t h e y were n o t a l t e r e d . W was r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g t h e p e r c e n t a g e change b e t w e e n t h e a v e r a g e f o r 1968 and 1969, and t h e a v e r a g e f o r 1963 and 1964. The i m p r o v e m e n t was d r a m a t i c . The Wu T e s t f o r E x o g e n e i t y i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e e q u a t i o n c o u l d n o t be p r o p e r l y r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e OLS m o d e l . The Two S t a g e L e a s t S q u a r e r e s u l t s a r e t h e r e f o r e p r e s e n t e d . 2SLS R a = . 9 2 R a=.88 F =23.9 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 1* l e v e l ) . ( 2 ) TCH = -6.44 • .66 0 + 3.25 F I -3.53 W + 1.26 FRON PAGE 70 A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s e x c e p t t h e c o n s t a n t a r e s i g n i f i c a n t . 0 and A W a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 1% l e v e l and F I and FRON a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5 % l e v e l . In t h i s e q u a t i o n , t h e two i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s F I and FRON, show a v e r y h i g h s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n o f -.96 w h i c h l i k e l y i n d i c a t e s t h e p r e s e n c e o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y . I f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s a p r o b l e m , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s may r e f l e c t e a c h o t h e r ' s i n f l u e n c e and n o t be i n d i v i d u a l l y a c c u r a t e . However, t h e R* and t h e F a r e n o t a f f e c t e d . F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f c o m p a r i s o n , t h e OLS r e s u l t s a r e a l s o p r e s e n t e d . OLS R*=.85 R a=.78 F =11.2 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 1% l e v e l ) . TCH = 6.22 + .35 0 - .26 F I - .36 W + .1 FRON O n l y S c a l e o f O u t p u t i s s i g n i f i c a n t ( a t t h e 1% l e v e l ) . PAGE 71 CHAPTER S I X : DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 6.1 D a t a A t t e m p t i n g t o g a t h e r d a t a f o r t h i s s t u d y was b e s e t w i t h p r o b l e m s . To b e g i n w i t h , most LDCs do n o t have h i g h l y d e v e l o p e d s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s . S e c o n d l y , s t a t i s t i c s r e g a r d i n g women h a v e , even now, f a i r l y l ow p r i o r i t y . F o r e x a m p l e , no g o v e r n m e n t c o l l e c t s s t a t i s t i c s c o n c e r n i n g much o f t h e p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t i e s engaged i n by t h e v a s t m a j o r i t y o f women i n t h e w o r l d ( e m p l o y e d o r u n e m p l o y e d ) - f o o d p r e p a r a t i o n , c h i l d c a r e , c r a f t w o r k, u n p a i d l a b o u r i n s u b s i s t e n c e s e c t o r s and much o f t h e u n p a i d l a b o u r i n f a m i l y b u s i n e s s e s . As E l i s e B o u l d i n g p o i n t s o u t , c o n c e p t i o n s o f t h e f a c t s w h i c h a r e e s s e n t i a l t o e n u m e r a t e have c h a n g e d g r a d u a l l y f r o m c o u n t i n g s o l d i e r s t o c o u n t i n g p r o d u c t i o n . * So g a t h e r i n g s t a t i s t i c s f r o m s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s f o r s t u d i e s o f t h i s n a t u r e i s d i f f i c u l t . P r i m a r y s o u r c e s s u c h , a s t h e M a l a y s i a n RAND d a t a may be c o m p r e h e n s i v e and r i c h i n d e t a i l b u t t h e i r u s e f u l n e s s i s l i m i t e d u n l e s s t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s a r e d e s i g n e d t o be c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h o s e f r o m s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s . I t i s o b v i o u s t h a t most LDCs a r e a t t e m p t i n g t o i m p r o v e t h e i r s t a t i s t i c a l b a s e s , b u t t i m e l i n e s s and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n r e m a i n p r o b l e m s . At t h e t i m e o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , i n 1980, f o r e x a m p l e , t h e o n l y y e a r f o r w h i c h f a c t o r s h a r e s by i n d u s t r y f o r M a l a y s i a was a v a i l a b l e . * E l i s e B o u l d i n g , Handbook o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l D a t a on Women, pp.5-6. PAGE 72 was 1971. In t h i s a r e a o f s t u d y , i t w o u l d be v a l u a b l e t o h a v e d a t a on t h e m a l e / f e m a l e breakdown o f w o r k e r s i n a l l i n d u s t r i e s , a t l e a s t f o r t h e one d i g i t l e v e l , i f n o t t h e two d i g i t l e v e l o f t h e SIC ( S t a n d a r d I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n ) , a n n u a l l y , f o r a l l c o u n t r i e s . Many a r e a s o f r e s e a r c h w o u l d b e n e f i t f r o m s t a n d a r d i z e d , a n n u a l and up t o d a t e f i g u r e s f o r r e a l c a p i t a l s t o c k and f a c t o r s h a r e s by i n d u s t r y . I t w o u l d a l s o be h e l p f u l t o have c o s t o f c a p i t a l a n n u a l l y , by i n d u s t r y . T h e s e a r e r a t h e r m o d e r a t e r e q u e s t s f o r d a t a i m p r o v e m e n t s , w i t h t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f r e a l c a p i t a l s t o c k by i n d u s t r y w h i c h i n v o l v e s c o n c e p t u a l d i f f i c u l t i e s . A s e e m i n g l y more r a d i c a l r e q u e s t ( w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e number o f more s t a t i s t i c a l l y a d v a n c e d LDCs w h i c h a r e c u r r e n t l y p u b l i s h i n g s u c h d a t a ) i s f o r more c o m p r e h e n s i v e s t a t i s t i c s on f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p , a n n u a l l y and by i n d u s t r y . T h e s e c o u l d be p r e s e n t e d , f o r e x a m p l e , as a p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l a s s e t s owned by f o r e i g n e r s and by t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f g r o s s i n d u s t r y s a l e s a c c o u n t e d f o r by f o r e i g n c o n t r o l l e d f i r m s . I t w o u l d a l s o be h e l p f u l t o have t h i s f u r t h e r c l a s s i f i e d by d i r e c t f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t and p o r t f o l i o i n v e s t m e n t , and by c o u n t r y o f o r i g i n . I t i s hoped t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l a t t e m p t s t o s t a n d a r d i z e t h e t y p e s o f d a t a a v a i l a b l e , t h e i r q u a l i t y and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s be c o n t i n u e d and i n t e n s i f i e d . T h i s i s i m p o r t a n t n o t o n l y f o r c o m p a r a b i l i t y b e t w e e n c o u n t r i e s b u t a l s o t o g i v e added e n c o u r a g e m e n t t o v a r i o u s s t a t i s t i c a l a g e n c i e s and b r a n c h e s w i t h i n a s i n g l e c o u n t r y t o u t i l i z e t h e PAGE 73 same s t a n d a r d s and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n schemes f o r t h e i r v a r i o u s s t u d i e s and p u b l i c a t i o n s . PAGE 74 6.2 T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change The S o l o w measure r e g i s t e r e d a s u r p r i s i n g l y h i g h l e v e l o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n t h e I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e l a s t h a l f o f t h e 1960s. See T a b l e 1 b e l o w . T a b l e 1 D A T A ( P e r c e n t a g e C h a n g e ) * P A R T T C H W FRON OE F I 0 E KE F O O D S & EEV - 1 . 8 3 5 . 9 •3 •J . 0 1 . 1 2 9 . C 0 . 5 3 3 . 4 3 . 4 - 1 4 . T O B A C C O 9 . 4 6 5 . 8 0 . 6 7 3 . 8 6 9 . 7 - 3 1 . 7 1 0 1 . 8 18 . 9 6 . 2 T E X T I L E S - ' l O . O 1 5 . 3 - 4 . 7 2 . 6 7 . 6 - 0 . 4 - 3 . 2 - 1 0 . 0 - 2 9 . T R A N S P O R T E Q U I P M E N T 5 1 . 2 7 7 . 0 - 0 . 7 4 . 8 7 0 . 2 0 . 0 1 6 r> 2 1 . 2 - 2 7 . 0 M A C H I N E R Y 1 4 . 6 1 8 . 6 7 . 8 8 . 5 1 1 . 1 - 2 . 0 4 0 . 2 2 6 . 2 - 2 7 . 5 B A S I C M E T A L - 3 9 . 5 - 5 . 3 6 . 2 1 . 9 - 1 8 . 0 0 . 3 - 9 . 1 1 0 . 9 - 3 4 . 7 M E T A L PROD 2 6 . 3 1 2 . 6 7 . 4 7 . 8 1 0 . 9 1 . 7 2 0 . 9 9 . 0 - 7 • 4 E L E C T R I C A L M A C H I N E R Y 3 9 . 6 1 7 . 6 2 2 . 0 1 1 . 7 1 1 . 0 - 0 . 8 4 8 . 8 3 4 . 0 - 1 7 . 4 C H E M I C A L S - 0 . 7 3 5 . 1 1 2 . 1 1 1 . 3 2 1 . 4 -2 . 8 7 4 . 4 4 3 . 6 - 2 2 . 0 B U I L D I N G M A T E R I A L S - 3 . 6 2 7 • 5 0 . 5 3 . 9 2 0 . 7 0 . 6 2 5 . 9 4 . 3 - 2 7 . 4 R U B B E R - 1 2 . 0 2 2 . 4 - 7 . 9 3 1 . 7 1 9 . 8 - 7 . 6 5 6 • 9 3 1 . 0 - 5 . 2 M I S C . 8 . 1 4 9 • 8 5 . 7 6 . 1 4 0 . c 1 . 0 5 5 . 5 1 0 . 7 - 2 8 . 8 E L E C T R I C I T Y - 3 1 . 3 3 0 . 2 2 1 . 1 2 . 8 4 . 2 - 1 . 4 5 1 . 6 4 5 . 5 - 4 0 . 2 PAGE 74 B Table 1 c o n t i n u e d SMOOTHED DATA (P e r c e n t a g e Chang * PART TCH W FRON OE FI 0 E KE FOODS & BEV 2.1 15.5 -3.8 1.4 7.2 0.5 10 .4 3.0 -17.1 TOBACCO 8.7 50.2 -8.2 57.9 52.7- 31 .7 71 .0 12.0 9.8 TEXTILES -11.7 14.1 -7.6 2.4 8.0 -0.4 1 . 1 -6.4 -23. 1 TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT 43-2 15.7 -6.9 4.8 11.3 0.0 32 . 1 18.7 -18.3 MACHINERY 19.0 16.7 1.4 7.5 12.1 -2.0 33 .6 19.2 -16.8 BASIC METALS -36.7 -0.2 1.3 2. 1 -10.7 0.3 -1 .6 10.2 -28.6 METAL PROD 36.6 8.0 19.0 8.7 5.6 1.7 11 .5 5.6 -10.4 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY 44.5 17.6 9.1 11.3 9.5 -0.8 47 .5 3^.7 -21 .2 CHEMICALS 1 .7 23-9 8.4 10.0 15.0 -2.8 62 .8 41.6 -14.4 BUILDING MATERIALS -4.6 7.4 -3 .9 4.2 4.1 0.6 11 .0 6.6 -13-4 RUBBER -3-0 23.0 -10.7 28.0 10.5 -7.6 34 .4 21.5 -24.4 MISC.. 7.3 34.8 - 3.3 6.6 28.1 1 .0 42 .7 11.4 -20.8 ELECTRICITY -39.2 31.4 2.5 2. 1 7.7 -1.4 74 .5 62.0 -36.6 A l l coloumns except FRON FRON & F I are not smoothed PAGE 7 5 O u t p u t p e r e m p l o y e e was r i s i n g w h i l e c a p i t a l s t o c k p e r e m p l o y e e was f a l l i n g and m a n u f a c t u r i n g a p p e a r e d t o be m a k i n g huge s t r i d e s . M e a n w h i l e , t h e i n d e x o f r e a l p e r c a p i t a Net N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t moved o n l y f r o m 1 0 3 . 9 i n 1 9 6 4 , t o 1 0 7 . 7 * i n 1 9 6 9 . I f i n f a c t t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s i n t h i s s e c t o r was as g r e a t as i t a p p e a r s , t h e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e meagre i n c r e a s e i n p e r c a p i t a Net N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t must l i e i n s t a g n a t i o n o f o t h e r s e c t o r s o r i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s o f u n e m p l o y m e n t . T e c h n i c a l Change - S t a t i s t i c a l R e s u l t s T h e r e i s some s u p p o r t shown f o r t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p and i n v e s t m e n t were p o s i t i v e l y l i n k e d t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n I n d i a d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1 9 6 4 t o 1 9 6 9 . In o t h e r w o r d s , p r i v a t e t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r seems t o h a v e c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . T h e r e may be some s p e c i f i c a t i o n b i a s p r e s e n t as a measure o f g o v e r n m e n t a l , s c i e n t i f i c , and o t h e r t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r was n o t i n c l u d e d . I t i s c e r t a i n h o w e v e r , t h a t t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r i n t o t a l was an i m p o r t a n t e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e f o r T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change. The h i g h n e g a t i v e s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n ( - . 9 6 ) between f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t and f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p was p r o b a b l y t h e r e s u l t o f t h e i n v e s t m e n t c l i m a t e and d e l i b e r a t e g o v e r n m e n t p o l i c i e s t o r e d u c e t h e l e v e l o f f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p i n t h o s e m a n u f a c t u r i n g * I n d i a n L a b o u r B u r e a u , I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s . PAGE 76 i n d u s t r i e s w h i c h were most h e a v i l y f o r e i g n - o w n e d . S i n c e t h e a s s u m p t i o n was made t h a t t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e c h a n g e d by t h e same p e r c e n t a g e a c r o s s a l l i n d u s t r i e s w h i l e t h e wage r a t e v a r i e d i n d i v i d u a l l y , ( i n c r e m e n t a l c a p i t a l b e i n g more m o b i l e t h a n l a b o u r ) t h e n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r W c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d t o mean t h a t when t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e o f c a p i t a l r i s e s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s s t i m u l a t e d . T h e r e i s s u p p o r t f o r t h e h y p o t h e s i s r a i s e d i n M o r l e y and S m i t h ' s a r t i c l e t h a t i n c r e a s i n g s i z e i n i t s e l f , l e a d s t o a chan g e t o a more e f f i c i e n t t e c h n i q u e . PAGE 7 7 6.3 Women's P a r t i c i p a t i o n I n d i a seems t o be a good e x a m p l e o f t h e e x p e c t e d t r e n d s o u t l i n e d r e g a r d i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n s o c i e t y and t h e o v e r a l l i m p a c t on women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n . As n o t e d i n T a b l e 2 b e l o w , t h e r a t i o o f f e m a l e w o r k e r s * i n t h e f e m a l e p o p u l a t i o n o f w o r k i n g age has f a l l e n ( t h o u g h n o t a l w a y s c o n s i s t e n t l y ) , b e t w e e n 1 9 0 1 and 1961. In 1901, o f t h e t o t a l f e m a l e w o r k e r s , 7 0 . 4 % were i n t h e p r i m a r y s e c t o r . Of t o t a l m a l e w o r k e r s , 7*1.5% were i n t h e p r i m a r y s e c t o r . By 1961, t h e p r i m a r y s e c t o r ' s s h a r e o f f e m a l e w o r k e r s had r i s e n t o 81.6} and i t s s h a r e o f male w o r k e r s had f a l l e n t o 6 8 1 . ( S e e T a b l e 5 ) . W h i l e women's r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a g r i c u l t u r e i n c r e a s e d , t h e i r t o t a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e economy f e l l s l i g h t l y . The g r e a t e r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n a g r i c u l t u r e must have been m o s t l y f o r f a m i l y p l o t s , a s i t a p p e a r s t h a t women's a g r i c u l t u r a l employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s have f a l l e n o v e r t h e 60 y e a r p e r i o d ( s e e T a b l e 3 ) . The number o f f e m a l e c u l t i v a t o r s t o male c u l t i v a t o r s has r i s e n o v e r t h e p e r i o d ( a g a i n n o t c o n s i s t e n t l y ) w h i l e t h e number o f f e m a l e t o male a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k e r s has f a l l e n . * T h i s i n c l u d e s b o t h a g r i c u l t u r a l and i n d u s t r i a l . T a b l e 2 PAGE 78 Percentage o f (a) worke rs to to ta l populat ion and o f ( b ) workers to popnlat ion or work ing age I f - 6 0 . (1901 to 1961). Year . Sex. Workers to tota l popu la t ion . Workers to popu la t ion o f w o r k i n g age 15-60. 1901 Persons 46.61 78.95 Males Females 61.11 31.70 103.68 53.60 1911 Persons 48.07 79.81 Males Females 61.90 33.73 .02.56 56.13 1921 Persons 46 .92 78.65 Males Females 60.52 32.67 101.13 54.96 1931 Persons 43.30 71.95 Males Females 58.27 27.63 96.17 46.23 1951 Persons 39.10 62.49 Males Females 54.05 23.30 93.90 41.19 1961 Persons 42.98 78.99 Males Females 57.12 27.96 10-1.28 51.74 S O U R C E : P . N . S . P a n i c k e r , A H a n d b o o k o n S m a ' l 1 I n d u s t r i e s , P. 1.5 V. PAGE 79 T a b l e 3 Females per l.OW or males in (1) Total population, (2) Working in each category Females per 1,000 males T o t a l workers N u m b e r o f female workers per 1,000 male workers as cu l t ivators. N u m b e r o f female workers per 1,000 male workers as agr icu l tura l workers . N u m b e r o f female workers per 1,000 male workers as workers i n p lanta t ions, forests, m i n i n g , quar ry ing . ( M i n i n g and quar ry ing on l y ) Primary sector number o f female workers per 1,000 male workers . N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male workers i n household indus t ry . N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male worke rs i n manufac tu r ing . N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male workers i n e o n s t r u c t i o n — indust ry . N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male workers in the Secondary sector. N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male workers i n t rade and commerce. N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male-workers i n t ranspor t , storage and com-municat ions. N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male-workers i n services. N u m b e r o f female-workers per 1,000 male-workers i n the Tertiary sector. N u m b e r o f female non-workers per 1 ,CO0 male non -worke rs . 1901 1911 1921 1931 1951 1961 972 964 955 955 947 941 504 525 516 453 408 460 431 427 463 289 357 498 1,051 1,054 952 1,006 857 819 335 337 372 337 491 297 639 500 562 396 434 ... 543 550 545 466 470 552 ... ... ... ... ... 633 553 574 508 440 288 110 400 336 412 303 248 13' 543 548 501 423 291 34* 485 513 479 396 187 US 65 62 65 41 61 2: 325 371 357 484 332 28 358 390 379 410 257 21 1,707 1,676 1,629 1,656 1,580 1,58 S O U R C E : P . N . S . P a n i c k e r , A H a n d b o o k o n S m a l l I n d u s t r i e s , P . 1 5 8 . PAGE 80 I t i s a l s o n o t a b l e t h a t o v e r t h e 60 y e a r p e r i o d , t h e number o f f e m a l e t o male w o r k e r s has f a l l e n a l s o i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g , c o n s t r u c t i o n , t r a d e & commerce, and even i n s e r v i c e s . ( S e e T a b l e 3 ) . The e f f e c t o f u r b a n i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n shows up i n t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o f women i n r u r a l v e r s u s u r b a n I n d i a . I n 1 9 6 1 , i n r u r a l I n d i a , 3 1 . 4 women p e r 1 0 0 were w o r k e r s , w h i l e 58.2 men p e r 1 0 0 were w o r k e r s . I n u r b a n I n d i a , a t t h e same t i m e , o n l y 1 1 . 1 p e r 1 0 0 women were w o r k e r s w h e r e a s 52 p e r 1 0 0 men were w o r k e r s . (See T a b l e 4 ) . I n e v e r y age g r o u p , l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i s a t l e a s t d o u b l e , and i n many c a s e s more t h a n t r i p l e i n r u r a l I n d i a , compared t o u r b a n a r e a s ( s e e T a b l e 4 ) . The p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o f young and o l d e r men a l s o r e f l e c t t h i s d i f f e r e n t i a l a c c e s s t o p r o d u c t i v e p r o c e s s e s b e tween r u r a l and u r b a n a r e a s . W h i l e t i m e s e r i e s d a t a i s n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , i t a p p e a r s I n d i a f i t s t h e model o u t l i n e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e s u r v e y . Women's r o l e i n a l l s e c t o r s o f t h e economy, e x c e p t as c u l t i v a t o r s , has f a l l e n . The f a c t t h a t a g r i c u l t u r e has r e m a i n e d o v e r w h e l m i n g l y t h e l a r g e s t s e c t o r , and i t s r e l a t i v e d e c l i n e i n i m p o r t a n c e has been p r o c e e d i n g v e r y s l o w l y , a p p e a r s t o be t h e o n l y f a c t o r w h i c h has p r e v e n t e d I n d i a n women's o v e r a l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f r o m p l u n g i n g r a t h e r t h a n d e c l i n i n g s l o w l y as n o t e d . N o t e i n T a b l e 5 t h a t t h e s h a r e o f employment o f t h e ' P r i m a r y S e c t o r ' , ( w h i c h i n c l u d e s f o r e s t r y , m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g as PAGE 81 w e l l as p l a n t a t i o n s and o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r e ) has n o t d e c l i n e d a t a l l i n t h e 60 y e a r p e r i o d . One m i g h t p o s s i b l y c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e h i g h e r t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f u r b a n i z a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n s o c i e t y , t h e l o w e r t h e o v e r a l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women w i l l become, o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g c o n s t a n t . T a b l e 1 T H E S E X - A G E - S P E C I F I C LABOUR FORCE P A R T I C I P A T I O N RATES FOR R U R A L , URBAN AND A L L AREAS OF I N D I A A c c o r d i n g t o t h e 16th R o u n d o f t h e NSS a n d T h o s e B a s e d o n t h e 1961 C e n s u s D a t a f o r M a h a r a s h t r a ( p e r c e n t I n d i a R u r a l I n d i a U r b a n ] A g e G r o u p 1961 NSS 1961 NSS 1961 C e n s u s 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 C e n s u s 1960-61 C e n s u s M A L E S 5 - 9 2.51 2 . 8 1 2.91 3 . 2 8 0 . 5 4 10 - u 2 9 . 9 2 2 8 . 8 8 3 4 . 1 4 3 2 . 7 3 11.11 15 - 19 6 9 . 4 3 7 0 . 3 3 7 7 . 0 7 7 6 . 3 0 4 0 . 7 0 20 - at 9 0 . 9 5 91.31 94 .41 9 3 . 0 9 7 9 . 6 0 25-29 9 6 . 2 7 9 5 . 9 0 9 6 . 8 6 9 5 . 5 2 9 4 . 0 3 30-39 9 7 . 7 2 96.49 9 7 . 7 3 9 6 . 0 5 9 7 . 6 8 40-49 97.76 95.35 9 7 . 9 2 9 4 . 8 4 9 6 . 3 3 50-59 9 5 . 7 0 9 0 . 7 4 9 7 . 2 5 9 0 . 6 4 8 8 . 3 9 60 + 57.46 61.97 8 0 . 0 6 6 3 . 7 9 5 9 . 2 5 A l l A g e s 57.12 55 .06 5 8 . 2 2 55 .67 5 2 . 4 0 F E M A L E S 5-9 1.69 2.12 1 .98 2 . 4 0 0 . 2 4 10 - u 2 2 . 7 8 20.01 2 6 . 7 1 2 2 . 9 7 5.22 15 - 19 4 0 . 5 6 3 3 . 5 2 4 7 . 17 3 7 . 8 1 11 .43 2 0 - 2 4 4 3 - 0 7 3 7 . 0 7 4 9 . 2 6 41.03 1 5 .55 2 5 - 2 9 4 4 . 7 6 4 1 . 2 9 5 0 . 7 6 4 5 . 6 7 1 7 . 0 3 3 0 - 3 9 45.59 4 7 . 5 6 5 3 . 3 4 5 2 . 0 1 21.19 4 0 - 4 9 50.11 4 7 . 1 8 5 4 . 5 6 5 0 . 9 0 2 4 . 7 5 5 0 - 5 9 42 .91 38.37 4 6 . 9 4 4 0 . 6 0 2 0 . 7 1 6 0 «• 2 2 . 4 2 16 .89 2 4 . 3 5 1 7 . 6 4 11 .48 A l l A g e s 2 7 . 9 6 2 5 . 1 7 31-42 2 7 . 7 2 1 1 . 0 9 N o t e : The NSS r a t e s f o r a l l a r e l a s o f I n d i a h a v e b e e n o b t w e i g h t i n g t h e r a t e s f o r r u r a l a n d u r b a n a r e a s a c c o t h e r u r a l - u r b a n d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f a g e g r o u p , a s r e p o r t e d by t h e 1961 C e n s u s h a v e bet f r o m R e p o r t s 103 ( p . 2 3 ) ; 114 ( p p . 2 2 , 2 4 ) S o u r c e : ( 1 ) The N a t i o n a l S a m p l e S u r v e y , R e p o r t s 103 ( p . : ( p p . 2 2 , 2 4 ) (2) P r a v i n V i s a r i a , " E s t i m a t e s f o r P a r t i c i p a t i o : a n d L a b o u r F o r c e , I n c l u d i n g a n d E x c l u d i n g U F a m i l y W o r k e r s , f o r I n d i a , 1961-1981", i n P C o m m i s s i o n , G o v e r m e n t o f I n d i a . R e p o r t o f t  C o m m i t t e e o f E x p e r t s o n U n e m p l o y m e n t E s t l m a D e l h i , 1970. A p p e n d i x V. PAGE 83 T a b l e 5 ' percentage distribution of workers by sex, in three broad sectors (Primary, Second ? r« and Tertiary) 1901-1961. Year Sex T o t a l Pr imary Secondary Tert ian workers sector sector sec to 1901 Both sexes 100 71.76 12.61 15.6 - Males 100 70.37 12.31 17.3 Females 100 74.46 13.25 12.2 1911 Both sexes 100 74.86 11.13 14.0 Males 100 73.66 10.97 15.37 Females 100 77.14 11.45 11.41 192 J Bo th sexes 100 75.99 10.41 13.60 Males 100 74.54 10.51 14.95 Females 100 78.80 10.21 10.99 1931 Bo th sexes 100 74.75 10.21 15.04 Males 100 74.08 10.43 15.49 Females 100 76.23 9.74 14.03 1951 Bo th sexes 100 72.12 10.62 17.26 Males 100 69.08 11.59 19.33 Females 100 79.57 8.26 12.17 1961 Both sexes 100 72.28 11.70 16.02 Males 100 67.98 12.68 19.34 Females 100 81.58 9.59 8.83 SOURCE: P.-N.-S. P a n i c k e r , A Handbook on S m a l l I n d u s t r i e s , P.1T4 PAGE 84 H o w e v e r , t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s , i n i t s e l f , may have a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t on t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n e a c h i n d u s t r y . The c r o s s s e c t i o n a l d a t a i n t h i s s t u d y p r e s e n t a l i t t l e more o p t i m i s t i c p i c t u r e . T h e r e i s a s m a l l p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e c o m b i n e d o v e r a l l 1 3 m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s f e l l , w h i l e t e c h n o l o g i c a l change was l a r g e and p o s i t i v e f o r a l l b u t B a s i c M e t a l s . I f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change d i d i n f a c t e x e r t a p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n I n d i a i n t h e l a t e s i x t i e s , t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f f e m a l e w o r k e r s i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d can be a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h e f a l l i n t h e c a p i t a l l a b o u r r a t i o and t h e d e c l i n e i n f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p , b o t h o f w h i c h f a c t o r s e x h i b i t a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t upon p a r t i c i p a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s . P a r t i c i p a t i o n - S t a t i s t i c a l R e s u l t s A c c o r d i n g t o E q u a t i o n ( 1 ) f o r P a r t i c i p a t i o n , i t a p p e a r s t h a t s u p p o r t i s p r o v i d e d f o r a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change and P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n I n d i a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g between 1964 and 1 9 6 9 . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , s u c h d a t a as 'manner o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n ' i s u n l i k e l y t o be o b t a i n a b l e w i t h o u t f i e l d s t u d i e s and so i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o i n c l u d e as a v a r i a b l e i n t h i s e q u a t i o n . W i t h o u t f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h on o t h e r d a t a s e t s , i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o draw PAGE 85 c o n c l u s i o n s a b o u t t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange b e i n g f e m a l e l a b o u r d i s p l a c i n g o r e n c o u r a g i n g , i n g e n e r a l . As d i s c u s s e d b e f o r e , t h e r e i s no t h e o r e t i c a l r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t i t must be one o r t h e o t h e r , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e non-a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r s . T h e r e i s some s u p p o r t h o w e v e r , f o r t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i n c r e a s e d c a p i t a l i n t e n s i t y ( w h i c h may be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange p a r t i c u l a r l y t e c h n o l o g i c a l change a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f o r e i g n i n f l u e n c e s ) may l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e d p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n an i n d u s t r y ( t h o u g h n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n c r e a s e d f e m a l e employment i f c a p i t a l i n t e n s i t y r e d u c e s t h e amount o f l a b o u r , b o t h male and f e m a l e , t h a t w o u l d o t h e r w i s e be n e e d e d ) . B o t h t i m e s e r i e s and f i e l d s t u d i e s w o u l d h e l p t o c l a r i f y t h e a m b i g u i t y o f how t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange may have a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t on women's t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s , as i n I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g between 1964 and 1969, and y e t be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e d e c l i n i n g p r o p o r t i o n s o f women w o r k e r s i n a l l i n d u s t r i e s , e x c e p t a g r i c u l t u r e , i n I n d i a between 1901 and 1961. T h r e e p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t : t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange was f e m a l e l a b o u r d i s p l a c i n g o v e r t h e s i x t y y e a r p e r i o d , and chan g e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g d e c a d e , o r t h e r u r a l component o f t h e s e i n d u s t r i e s d e c l i n e d r e l a t i v e t o t h e u r b a n c o m p o n e n t , o r t h e r e was r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e o v e r t h a t p e r i o d and i t s i m p a c t was s m a l l i n c o m p a r i s o n t o o t h e r o f f s e t t i n g f a c t o r s . U n t i l t h e 1961 c e n s u s f o r e x a m p l e , h o u s e h o l d i n d u s t y was c o m b i n e d w i t h PAGE 86 o t h e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g . T h i s s e c t o r may have been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n o f f e m a l e employment i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g . T h i s c o u l d a c c o u n t f o r t h e s u d d e n d r o p i n t h e r a t i o o f f e m a l e t o male w o r k e r s o b s e r v e d i n T a b l e 3 b e t w e e n 1951 and 1961. A d e c l i n e i n t h i s s u b s e c t o r c o u l d , i n i t s e l f , a c c o u n t f o r a l a r g e p a r t o f t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g , o b s e r v e d i n T a b l e 3 b e t w e e n 1911 and 1951. PAGE 87 6.4 F o r e i g n B u s i n e s s and Women's P a r t i c i p a t i o n T h i s s t u d y seems t o s u g g e s t t h a t f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s i n v e s t m e n t i n LDCs ( f r o m more d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s ) i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n t h e h o s t c o u n t r y i n d u s t r i e s i n t h r e e ways: i ) The p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n i n d u s t r y , ( t h o u g h n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f e c o n o m i c a l l y a c t i v e women) i s much h i g h e r i n t h e West. F o r w h a t e v e r r e a s o n , p e r h a p s due t o ' h a b i t p e r s i s t e n c e ' , o r l e s s d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s does seem t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t l y p o s i t i v e i m p a c t upon t h e change i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n an LDC i n d u s t r y . i i ) T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change, p e r s e , has been shown t o have a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t upon t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n an i n d u s t r y , a t l e a s t u n d e r some c i r c u m s t a n c e s . F o r e i g n b u s i n e s s i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h i s s t u d y , shows a v e r y s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e . F o r t h a t r e a s o n , f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s s h o u l d a l s o have a p o s i t i v e i m p a c t on t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women i n an i n d u s t r y . i i i ) F o r e i g n b u s i n e s s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y m u l t i n a t i o n a l s , have a r e p u t a t i o n b o t h f o r p a y i n g premium wages, and f o r u s i n g more c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e p r o c e s s e s t h a n l o c a l f i r m s . W h i l e t h e use o f c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e p r o c e s s e s i n i n a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t a n c e s i s more l i k e l y t o r e d u c e t h a n t o i n c r e a s e t o t a l f e m a l e e m p l o y m e n t , t h e s t a t i s t i c a l r e s u l t s o f t h i s s t u d y i n d i c a t e t h a t h i g h e r c a p i t a l l a b o u r r a t i o s a r e a s s o c i a t e d PAGE 88 w i t h l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n s o f women w o r k e r s i n an a f f e c t e d i n d u s t r y . PAGE 89 CHAPTER SEVEN: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS S t a t i s t i c a l e v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e had a s m a l l p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s b e t w e e n 1964 and 1969, was f o u n d . A s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t o f t h e e f f e c t o f o v e r a l l t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange on o v e r a l l l e v e l s o f women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e economy was n o t p o s s i b l e . H owever, t h e d a t a s u g g e s t t h a t I n d i a n women's o v e r a l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e economy has f a l l e n s l i g h t l y s i n c e t h e t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y , due t o u r b a n i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n ( o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e ) . I t a p p e a r s n o t t o have f a l l e n d r a m a t i c a l l y and c o n s i s t e n t l y o v e r t h i s p e r i o d s i n c e t h e s h a r e o f employment a c c o u n t e d f o r by a g r i c u l t u r e has r e m a i n e d c o n s i s t e n t l y h i g h . What has been n o t e d , i s t h a t women's a g r i c u l t u r a l employment o p p o r t u n i t e s h a ve a p p e a r e d t o f a l l and t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t e s as c u l t i v a t o r s o f f a m i l y p l o t s have r i s e n . L a s t l y , s t a t i s t i c a l e v i d e n c e l i n k i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l change and t h e p r e s e n c e o f f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s was f o u n d f o r I n d i a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s b e t ween 1964 and 1969. F u t u r e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s m i g h t be d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s c l a s s i f y i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n t o c a t e g o r i e s d e s i g n e d t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n t h o s e t h a t e n c o u r a g e women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t h o s e t h a t d i s p l a c e women f r o m an i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r y . I t w o u l d be i n t e r e s t i n g t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange has a b e n e f i c i a l i m p a c t upon PAGE 90 women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s i n g e n e r a l . , o r o n l y u n d e r c e r t a i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s . I t w o u l d a l s o be u s e f u l t o have t i m e s e r i e s s t a t i s t i c a l s t u d i e s o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t e c h n o l o g i c a l change a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r i s i n g l e v e l s o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n l e a d s t o a d e c l i n e i n t h e economy-wide f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e . I n c o n c l u s i o n : 1. L a c k o f s t a n d a r d i z e d d a t a i n t h e f o l l o w i n g i m p o r t a n t a r e a s i s a s e r i o u s h i n d e r a n c e t o e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . a) P r o p o r t i o n o f men and women i n each i n d u s t r y , a n n u a l l y b) R e a l C a p i t a l S t o c k by i n d u s t r y , a n n u a l l y c ) C o s t o f C a p i t a l , a n n u a l l y , by i n d u s t r y d) F a c t o r S h a r e s a n n u a l l y , by i n d u s t r y e) F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t and O w n e r s h i p , ( D i r e c t and P o r t f o l i o ) a n n u a l l y , by i n d u s t r y . 2. In t h e same v e i n , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t h a t e f f o r t s t o s t a n d a r d i z e i n d u s t r i a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n schemes between and w i t h i n c o u n t r i e s c o n t i n u e t o p r e s s f o r w a r d . 3. C o n s i d e r i n g how l i t t l e g r o w t h i n GNP o c c u r r e d i n I n d i a i n t h e l a t e 1 9 6 0 s , t h e S o l o w m e a s u r e o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change r e g i s t e r s a s u r p r i s i n g l y h i g h l e v e l f o r I n d i a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . PAGE 91 4. Some s t a t i s t i c a l s u p p o r t i s shown f o r t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p and i n v e s t m e n t were p o s i t i v e l y l i n k e d t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hange i n I n d i a n m a n u f a c t u r i n g d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1964 t o 1969. 5. T h e r e i s s u p p o r t f o r t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t i n c r e a s i n g s i z e , o r s c a l e o f p r o d u c t i o n , i n i t s e l f l e a d s t o a change t o a more e f f i c i e n t t e c h n i q u e . 6. Women's t o t a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e I n d i a n economy has f a l l e n s l i g h t l y s i n c e t h e t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y t h o u g h t h e i r i n v o l v e m e n t i n a g r i c u l t u r e ( a s c u l t i v a t o r s n o t as e m p l o y e e s ) h a s r i s e n . 7. A s m a l l p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t e c h n o l g i c a l c hange was f o u n d d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e c o m b i n e d o v e r a l l 13 m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s f e l l , w h i l e t e c h n o l o g i c a l change was l a r g e and p o s i t i v e f o r a l l b u t B a s i c M e t a l s . 8. The above c a n be a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h e f a l l i n t h e c a p i t a l l a b o u r r a t i o and t h e d e c l i n e i n f o r e i g n o w n e r s h i p , b o t h o f w h i c h d e m o n s t r a t e p o s i t i v e s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h i s s t u d y . BIBLIOGRAPHY PAGE 92 A l l - I n d i a M a n u f a c t u r i n g O r g a n i z a t i o n . I n d u s t r i a l and  E c o n o m i c S t a t i s t i c s Compendium, Bombay; 1967. £12 B a l a s u b r a m a n y a m , V.N. I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a n s f e r o f Techno 1  t o I n d i a , New Y o r k ; P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1973. B a t t a d , J.R. ' N u t r i t i o n a l S t a t u s o f P r e s c h o o l e r s ' , The  P h i l i p p i n e E c o n o m i c J o u r n a l , No. 36, V o l . 1 7 , Nos. 1*2, 1978. B h a t t a c h a r y a , Debesh. 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( e d s ) Handbook o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l D a t a on Women, New Y o r k ; H a l s t e d P r e s s , J o h n W i l e y and S o n s , 1976. C a b a n e r o , T. 'The 'Shadow P r i c e ' o f C h i l d r e n ' , The  P h i l i p p i n e E c o n o m i c J o u r n a l , No. 36, V o l . 17, Nos. 142, 1978. C a r r , M a r i l y n . A p p r o p r i a t e T e c h n o l o g y f o r A f r i c a n Women, U n i t e d N a t i o n s E c o n o m i c C o m m i s s i o n f o r A f r i c a , 1978. PAGE 93 C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n , G o v e r n m e n t o f I n d i a . A n n u a l S u r v e y o f I n d u s t r i e s : Summary R e s u l t s o f t h e F a c t o r y S e c t o r , New D e l h i ; v a r i o u s i s s u e s . C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n , G o v e r n m e n t o f I n d i a . S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t I n d i a , New D e l h i ; v a r i o u s i s s u e s . C h a t t e r j e e , P r a n a b . 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PAGE 98 APPENDIX ONE The Wu T e s t f o r E x o g e n e i t y The Wu t e s t f o r e x o g e n e i t y i n v o l v e s r u n n i n g two r e g r e s s i o n s and c o m p a r i n g t h e i r sum o f s q u a r e d r e s i d u a l s t h r o u g h t h e use o f a Chow t e s t . F i r s t , a r e g r e s s i o n i s run w i t h t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s (no p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s as w o u l d be done f o r 2 S L S ) o f t h e i n c l u d e d v a r i a b l e s . T h i s i s t h e OLS r e g r e s s i o n . N e x t , a n o t h e r r e g r e s s i o n i s r u n w i t h t h e same r e g r e s s o r s b u t , i n a d d i t i o n , t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s as w e l l as t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s o f t h e end o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s a r e i n c l u d e d as s e p a r a t e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s . F o r t h e P a r t i c i p a t i o n e q u a t i o n , t h e two r e g r e s s i o n s w e r e : OLS PART = 1 3 . 5 + .78 TCH + .75 W + 2.1 F I • 1.46 KE SSE = 3272.4 DFE = 8 and P a r t = 37.16 + 1.07TCH + 1.85W • 1.34FI + 1.01KE - 1.0TCH -1.24W + .5KE SSE = 2105.3 DFE = 5 F = { ( 3 2 7 2 . 4 - 2105.3) / ( 8 - 5 ) / ( 2 1 0 5 . 3 /5 ) = .92 w h i c h i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t even a t t h e 25% l e v e l . T h e r e f o r e i t i s n o t n e c e s s a r y t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h i s e q u a t i o n i n a S i m u l t a n e o u s E q u a t i o n M o d e l . The OLS m o d e l i s a p p r o p r i a t e . PAGE 99 The Wu t e s t f o r t h e T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change E q u a t i o n u s i n g t h e smoothed d a t a was: OLS TCH = 6.22 + . 35 0 - .26 F I - .36 W + .1 FRON SSE = 315.53 DFE = 8 and TCH = 4.88 + .45 0 + .07 F I - .26 W - 1.15 W SSE = 257.05 DFE = 5 F = { (315.5 - 257.1) / (8 - 5 ) / ( 257.1 / 5) = 11.9 w h i c h i s s i g n i f i c a n t e ven a t t h e IX l e v e l . T h e r e f o r e , t h e p r e d i c t e d v a r i a b l e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y add t o t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power and t h i s e q u a t i o n s h o u l d r e m a i n p a r t o f t h e s i m u l t a n e o u s s y s t e m . PAGE 1 0 0 APPENDIX TWO: DATA TABLES Female. Employee P r o p o r t i o n s by Ind u s t r y (2) (1) Foods and Beverapes 1963 1964 1 965 1968 1969 .21974 .22508 .21861 . 7 4 " 6 .7V04S 21 384 ( 3 ' C i g a r e t t e s and Tobacco .63816 .64973 .65321 .71646 .71065 .68178 Text.il es .05566 .05163 .05110 .04749 .04646 .04594 • T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Equipment .00285 .00365 .00385 .00359 .00552 .0057] Machinerv and Machine Tools .00741 .00706 .00750 .00802 .00809 .01001 B a s i c Metals .02S88 .02779 .02544 .01869 .01681 .0164 9 Meta] Products .01108 .01238 .01172 .01505 .01564 .01738 E l e c t r i c a l Goods .03560 .04645 .04412 .05365 .06486 .06380 Chemicals and Products of Petroleum and Coal .0S229 . 0S805 .03859 .09077 .08740 .0S527 Wood and Cork and N o n - M e t a l l i c M i n e r a l Products .12405 .11993 .11516 .11789 .11639 Rubber Goods .02588 .02578 .02676 .02244 .02269 .03092 Other'Misc. Manuf., F u r n i t u r e , F i x t u r e s . Paper and P r i n t inc.. Lea ther .04016 .03988 .04036 .04143 .04310 .044 6'5 E l e c t r i c a l , Gas, Steam Water and S a n i t a r v S e r v i c e s .01479 .01141 .01109 .00658 .00784 .00827 TOTAL !l0362 .10166 .09579 .08512 .09241 .08875 Source: C a l c u l a t e d f r o x v a r i o u s i s s u e s of the I n d i a n Labour Stat i s t i cs For Notes ( 1 ) , ( 2 ) , (3) see l a s t page of Appendix 2 PAGE 101 Real Value Added (1) 1963 1964 19b5 1968 1969 1970 Foods and Beverapos 27. ,832 33 . 228 32,923 32,744 43,932 24.907 Tobacco 6, 263 5, 900 7,485 9.837 11 ,905 11,858 T e x t i l e s 88. ,097 93,154 88,088 86.604 90 , 174 95,432 Transports Li on Equipment 29. ,358 19,297 39,093 36,152 39 ,B11 39,914 Manufacture of Machinery 13. , 810 17. 853 21 ,415 20,652 25 ,027 25.228 Basic Metals 35. .742 4 5. 435 44,467 35,612 41 , 311 46.720 Manufacture of Meta l Products 7. ,922 8. .133 9,833 7,951 9 .836 11,066 Manufacture of E l e c t r i c a l Machinery 13. ,080 15. ,116 18.117 18,400 22 ,489 27,441 Basic I n d u s t r i a l Chemicals and Products of Petroleum and Coal 33. ,241 34. .361 41,323 52,169 59 , 912 65,240 Wood and Cork and N o n - M e t a l l i c Mineral Products 8. ,764 o, ,150 11.354 9.886 11 , 522 11.086 Rubber Goods 7 ,961 6. ,713 7,944 9.900 10 ,534 9,938 Other Misc. Manuf., F u r n i t u r e , F i x t u r e s . Paper and P r i n t i n g , Leather 23 ,671 25. ,914 25.415 29,038 40 ,304 37.998 E l e c t r i c i t y , L i c h t and Gas 19. .090 29. .17 6 31.264 41,172 44,234 53.392 Source: C a l c u l a t e d from Nominal 'Value Added by Manufacture- from the Table' Annual Survey of I n d u s t r i e s - by I n d u s t r i e s ' i n v a r i o u s i s s u e s of the S t at i st_i_cal,,, .Abstract .1 »4j.a by d e f l a t i n g by the '] rr.pli c a t P r i c e D e f l a t o r Index of Gross Domestic Product' f o r I n d i a n Manufacturing I n d u s t r i e s from the U-nlted Nations  Yearbook of N a t i o n a l Accounts S t a t i s t i c s (1): See notes on l a s t page of Appendix 2 PAGE 102 Nominal Productive- Capi t a l Slock ( c u r r e n t 1 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 Rs.) (1) 1963 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 8 3 9 6 9 1 9 7 0 Food and Beverages 3 3 , 3 9 6 3 3 , 4 6 8 4 0 , 4 7 0 4 6 , 6 0 6 4 7 , 7 1 4 5 3 , 1 2 7 5 7 . 6 5 7 Tobacco 3 , 3 3 0 3 , 5 7 9 3 , 8 6 5 3 , 9 0 9 6 , 3 4 3 7 , 5 8 4 7 , 2 2 5 T e x t i l e s 5 8 . 2 6 9 6 3 , 8 3 3 6 3 , 2 9 0 7 2 , 1 7 9 7 6 , 6 6 2 7 8 , 7 0 2 8 2 , 6 2 6 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Eauinment 2 5 , 2 9 9 3 1 , 2 1 7 3 5 . 3 9 4 4 5 , 8 4 5 5 1 , 5 5 0 5 3 , 6 1 1 5 6 , 8 1 8 Machinerv 1 4 , 0 7 4 IS . 8 8 7 2 4 , 6 0 2 3 8 . 1 4 5 3 7 , 9 1 4 3 8 . 5 1 1 3 9 . 6 7 4 basic Metals 1 0 2 , 2 1 0 1 1 1 . 7 6 3 1 2 3 . 1 0 8 1 3 6 , 8 6 5 1 5 6 , 6 7 1 1 6 2 , 5 1 6 1 7 0 , 2 9 9 Metal Products 6 , 4 7 8 7 . 2 9 9 £. 9 5 6 1 0 . 2 7 4 Q , 6 8 7 1 2 . 2 2 6 1 3 . 5 4 1 E l e c t r i c a l Machinerv 1 4 , 9 6 6 1 7 . 7 8 4 2 3 , 4 4 0 3 3 . 9 1 9 3 3 . 6 0 1 3 7 , 8 7 8 3 9 . 6 7 4 Chemi c a l s 4 9 . 0 4 3 5 5 , 1 6 7 6 4 . 6 3 7 9 0 . 4 8 4 U l , 9 ° 9 1 3 4 , 9 3 5 1 6 7 , 8 3 1 B u i l d i n g 1 0 , 5 0 0 1 1 . 7 9 9 1 3 . 0 7 5 1 4 . 7 3 1 IS , 8 9 8 2 0 . 7 0 9 2 5 . 1 7 2 Rubber 4 , 7 9 8 5 . 7 0 2 5 , S 7 7 6 , 4 9 0 7 , 6 4 7 9 , 7 5 4 9 , 5 4 3 M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r i n g 2 4 , 9 2 1 2 9 . 0 8 6 3 1 . 8 2 7 3 5 . 5 4 2 4 2 . 7 0 9 4 5 . 0 1 2 5 0 . 0 7 0 E l e . c t r i c i t v and Gas 8 2 . 6 3 9 1 3 6 . 1 7 5 1 9 1 . 5 0 1 2 1 9 . 1 5 3 3 0 0 . 9 6 5 3 3 8 . 7 4 7 3 9 5 . 3 5 5 Source: C a l c u l a t e d from 'Annual Survey of Indus t r i es - by I n d u s t i i e s ' i n v a r i o u i s i s s u e s of the St at i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t I n d i a (1) See notes on l a s t page of Appendix 2 PAGE 1 0 3 Employment 1963 3964 1965 1966 1969 1970 Foods and Beverages 396,306 427,668 444, ,788 411, 377 442, , 285 452,736 Tobacco 86 .813 92 ,813 92, ,718 103, 106 110, ,343 91.453 Text i l e s 1,253 .869 1,310 ,142 1,279, ,653 1,194,007 1,178. 820 1,226,063 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equipment 335. ,877 365 ,054 407, ,280 419, 936 442, ,283 453,126 Manufacture of Machinery 144. , 986 164. ,921 205, ,318 204, 008 208. 083 202,017 Basic Metals 289. .117 319, .068 333. ,227 333. 395 353,950 349.83E Manufacture of Metal Products ,764 79, ,476 85.566 78. 537 86,634 91,182 Manufacture of E l e c t r i c a l Machinery 111. 457 127. ,774 139. 645 154, 145 171. 268 184,950 Chemicals and Products of Petroleum and Coal 146. 443 159. ,553 181. 837 210, 323 229. 062 251.228 Wood and Cork and N o n - M e t a l l i c Mineral Products 80. 635 91. ,853 96. 664 93, 118 95. 757 98.089 Manufacture of Rubber 46. ,374 43. ,607 45. 846 53. 003 57. .134 47,658 Other Misc. Manuf., F u r n i t u r e , F i x t u r e s , Paper and P r i n t i n g . Leather 325. 509 350. 692 361. ,435 370. 215 3SS. .272 397.756 E l e c t r i c i t v . L i g h t and Gas 158, 702 267. ,019 279, 207 343, 133 388. ,429 410,523 Source: C a l c u l a t e d from'Annual Survey of I n d u s t r i e s - by I n d u s t r y ' i n v a r i o u s i s s u e s of the S t a t i s t i c a l  A b s t r a c t I n d i a For Note (1) see l a s t page of Appendix 2 PAGE 104 Dir e c t Investment C a p i t a l Component of Outstanding Long Term Foreign Investments i n Corporate and Commercial Enterprises (Rs. crores) (1) 1964 1969 Food and Beverages 34.0 49.1 Tobacco 26.4 31.9 T e x t i l e s 16.6 17.7 Transportation Equipment 15.0 25.7 Machinery 16.0 . 25.0 Basic Metals 13.7 29.3 Metal Products 19.4 31.9 E l e c t r i c a l Machinery 20.8 41.3 Chemicals 62.5 115.8 Building 4.6 9.3 Rubber 18.1 23.6 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 17.7 31.9 E l e c t r i c i t y and Gas 38.1 46.0 Source: Reserve Bank of India B u l l e t i n , July 1975 (1) See Note'l on l a s t page of Appendix 2 PAGE 105 India I m p l i c i t P r i c e Deflator Index of Gross Domestic Product Manufacturing Industries 1975=100 1963 40.2 1964 43.8 1965 47.7 1966 54.8 1967 59.0 1968 58.8 1969 61.2 1970 63.1 Source: United Nations Yearbook of National Accounts S t a t i s t i c s I m p l i c i t P r i c e Deflator Index  of Gross Fixed C a p i t a l Formation  for Manufacturing Industries  India 1975=100 1963 40.0 1964 41.1 1965 43.7 1966 46.8 1967 ' 48.5 1968 51.1 1969 53.8 1970 57.4 Source: United Nations Yearbook of National Accounts S t a t i s t i c s PAGE 106 Proportion of Fixed C a p i t a l Depreciation as a to Productive C a p i t a l % of Fixed C a p i t a l (1) Food and Beverages .53615 .1049 Tobacco .2948 .1604 T e x t i l e s .5911 .1275 Transportation Equipment .496 .1090 Machinery .5407 .1082 Basic Metals .6667 .0989 Metal Products .4432 .1063 E l e c t r i c a l Machinery .5135 .0902 Chemicals .6607 .0986 Building .6806 .1003 Rubber .5890 .1346 Miscellaneous Manufacturing .6211 .0988 E l e c t r i c i t y and Gas .8992 .0277 Source: Calculated from Summary Results Tables i n Annual Survey of Industries: of the Factory Sector, 1970/71, 1971/72 1973/74, 1974/75 Note (1) see l a s t page of Appendix 2 PAGE 107 R e a l Wages ( 1 ) 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 8 1 9 6 9 F o o d a n d B e v e r a g e s 8 0 2 . 27 7 6 7 . 7 3 7 1 9 . 30 7 9 0 . 63 T o b a c c o 6 4 8 . 93 5 9 5 . 4 7 5 4 3 . 78 5 9 9 . 12 T e x t i l e s 1 4 0 7 . 53 1 3 6 6 . 1 0 1 2 6 0 . 05 1 3 0 2 . 10 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t 1 7 9 8 . 65 1 6 8 0 . 5 5 1 5 7 1 . 9 1 1 6 6 7 . 98 M a c h i n e r y 1 4 8 5 . 33 1 4 6 4 . 5 3 1 4 1 1 . 78 1 5 7 9 . 32 B a s i c M e t a l s 1 8 7 7 . 4 1 1 8 1 3 . 4 5 1 8 1 2 . 09 1 9 2 6 . 3 0 M e t a l P r o d u c t s 1 2 8 0 . 83 1 2 3 0 . 4 1 1 6 6 8 . 00 1 3 2 1 . 17 E l e c t r i c a l M a c h i n e r y 1 8 2 9 . 56 1 6 3 8 . 0 2 1 7 8 6 . 05 1 9 9 7 . 75 C h e m i c a l s 1 9 9 7 . 12 1 9 5 3 . 1 3 2 0 9 3 . 96 2 1 8 9 . 74 B u i l d i n g 9 8 7 . 46 9 6 2 . 0 8 9 0 6 . 98 9 6 7 . 06 R u b b e r 2 1 5 9 . 42 2 1 0 5 . 2 6 1 8 6 7 . 85 1 9 3 9 . 17 M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r i n g 1 3 7 2 . 56 1 2 6 7 . 1 3 1 2 1 3 . 30 1 3 3 9 . 62 E l e c t r i c i t y a n d Gas 1 3 5 1 . 73 9 9 1 . 7 5 NA 1 2 0 1 . 36 S o u r c e : C a l c u l a t e d f r o m ' P e r C a p i t a A n n u a l M o n e y E a r n i n g s o f W o r k e r s i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s ' i n v a r i o u s i s s u e s o f I n d i a n L a b o u r S t a t i s t i c s , d e f l a t e d b y t h e ' C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x N u m b e r s f o r w o r k i n g c l a s s f o r a l l I n d i a a n d G e n e r a l I n d e x ' i n t h e same s o u r c e N o t e ( 1 ) s e e l a s t p a g e o f A p p e n d i x 2 \ PAGE 108 NOTES TO APPENDIX TWO N o t e 1: F o r c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h t h e o t h e r d a t a , some o f t h e above c a t e g o r i e s a g g r e g a t e more t h a n one c a t e g o r y f r o m t h e s o u r c e . N o t e 2: W h i l e t h e s o u r c e g i v e s a b s o l u t e numbers o f men and women, t h i s has been c o n v e r t e d t o a p e r c e n t a g e o f women t o t o t a l e m p l o y e e s . N o t e 3: ( P ) r e f e r s t o d a t a d e s i g n a t e d ' p r e l i m i n a r y ' by t h e s o u r c e . 

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