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Great power war, 1815-1945 : an examination of some power politics arguments Moul, William B. 1980

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GREAT POWER WAR,  1815-1945:  AN EXAMINATION OF  SOME POWER POLITICS ARGUMENTS  by William B. Moul B.A., The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1968 M.A., The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1970  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY  in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Department o f P o l i t i c a l  Science)  We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s conforming to t h e r e q u i r e d  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1980 William  B. Moul, 1980  • E-6  In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s  thesis in partial  fulfilment  o f the requirements  an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I agree the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t I  further  freely  thesis  f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department  of t h i s  It  thesis for financial  i s understood t h a t copying or  \CK\-nccvi-  Di\£Ne:Tg  The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5  B P 75-5 I 1 E  or  publication  g a i n s h a l l not be allowed w i t h o u t my  written permission.  Department nf  that  a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y .  agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s  by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .  for  Table of Contents Chapter I : I n t r o d u c t i o n Great Powers and Bar Overview Chapter I I : Great  1 7  Power B a r , 1815-1945  C h a p t e r I I I : T h e B a l a n c e o f Power Preliminaries The Most P r o b a b l e T h e o r y Less P r o b a b l e P r o p o s i t i o n s A l l i a n c e Commitments a n d war E c o n o m i c Growth and War R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and Mar Bank and War Between G r e a t Powers  20 37 37 44 52 52 59 66 70  C h a p t e r I V : A Review o f t h e E x i s t i n g E m p i r i c a l S t u d i e s E c o l o g i c a l F a l l a c i e s and M e t h o d o l o g i c a l I n v o l u t i o n A l l i a n c e C o m m i t i m e n t s and War Bar and R a t e s o f I n d u s t r i a l Growth R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and Bar Pairwise Differences or Ratios Rank Percentage Shares D e v i a t i o n from Average Share Conclusion ,  85 85 98 110 117 117 132 135 137 141  C h a p t e r V: M e t h o d s and T h e o r y Introduction Rate o f I n d u s t r i a l Growth Long Baves A l l i a n c e commitments R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n Power C a p a b i l i t i e s  143 143 148 156 160 163 176  Chapter VI: A l l i a n c e s ,  I n d u s t r i a l Growth, and G r e a t Power B a r  Introduction A l l i a n c e s and B a r 1815 t o 1885 1885 t o 1939 P a c t a de C o n t r a h e n d o R a t e s o f E c o n o m i c Growth and Bar 1815 t o 1875 Summary 1875 t o 1945 Summary: 1815-1945 R i p p l e s , Waves and E n t e n t e s Baves G r e a t Power E n t e n t e s Conclusion  i  192 192 194 194 202 208 216 220 227 228 238 241 241 245 249  C h a p t e r V I I : R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n , Bank and B a r Introduction P r e p o n d e r a n c e and War Changes i n R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War 1816 t o 1899 Summary 1815-1875 1900 t o 1939 Rank and War 1815 t o 1875 1860 t o 1899 1900 t o 1939 Summary  254 254 257 260 264 277 280 294 298 306 314 326  Chapter V I I I : Catalogue  329 329  Conclusion and Coda  Bibliography  348  ii  TABLES Chapter 1:1  I: Introduction State P a r t i c i p a t i o n  Chapter 11:1 11:2 11:3 11:4 Chapter  I I : G r e a t Power War,  I I I : The Balance  Chapter VI:1 VI:2 Chapter  1815-1945  I V : A R e v i e w Of The E x i s t i n g  Empirical  I n d u s t r i a l Growth And G r e a t  Economic Growth Rates E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s VII: Relative  VIII:  VIII:1  34  and G r e a t and G r e a t  Power P o s i t i o n ,  Power War, Power War,  Rank And  58 82  Studies  Some R e s u l t s C o n c e r n i n g A l l i a n c e s And I n t e r s t a t e War Power C a p a b i l i t i e s D i s p a r i t y R a t i o s Above And Below The 1.45 L e v e l : War E v e n t s , 1850-1965 VI: A l l i a n c e s ,  23 24 32  Of Power  V I I : 1 I n c r e a s e i n RPP and G r e a t Power War, V I I : 2 I n c r e a s e i n RPP and G r e a t Power War, V I I : 3 I n c r e a s e i n RPP and G r e a t Power War, Chapter  1  War P e r f o r m a n c e o f A l l i e d G r e a t P o w e r s by A l l i a n c e C l a s s D u r i n g L i f e o f A l l i a n c e , 1815-1945 P r o p o s i t i o n s C o n c e r n i n g The I n c i d e n c e o f G r e a t I n t e r s t a t e War To Be T e s t e d  111:2  IV:1 IV:2  1815-1945  T y p e s o f ' B a l a n c e o f Power War', 1815-1945 Number o f E a c h T y p e o f I n t e r s t a t e War: G r e a t Powers I n i t i a t o r s I n G r e a t Power I n t e r s t a t e War, 1816-1945 G r e a t Power I n t e r s t a t e War, 1816-1945: D u r a t i o n , S e v e r i t y and Type o f P a r t i c i p a t i o n  111:1  Chapter  I n War,  Power  103 128  War  1815-1875 1815-1945  227 238  War 1815-1875 1875-1939 1815-1939  278 292 293  Conclusion  A Summary o f P r o p o s i t i o n s a n d F i n d i n g s  iii  345  FIGURES Chapter I: I n t r o d u c t i o n 1:1  T h e o r e t i c a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s I n The Power Literature Power P o l i t i c s R e l a t i o n s h i p s Examined In E m p i r i c a l S t u d i e s  1:2  C h a p t e r I V : A Review Of The E x i s t i n g IV:1  Chapter V:1  Empirical  Chapter  9 14 Studies  S c a t t e r p l o t o f R e l a t i o n s h i p Between I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t and F o r e i g n C o n f l i c t : H y p o t h e t i c a l Data on T w e l v e S t a t e s V: M e t h o d s And  VI: A l l i a n c e s ,  112  Theory  A Comparison o f 2 Estimates o f Iron P r u s s i a / G e r m a n y , 1815-1885 The Use o f Log T r a n s f o r m a t i o n s I The Use o f L o g T r a n s f o r m a t i o n s I I  V:2 V:3  Politics  Production:  I n d u s t r i a l Growth, And G r e a t  153 155 155 Power  War  VI: 1 VI: VI: VI: VI: VI: VI: VI: VI: VI:  A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : U n i t e d Kingdom, 1815-1885 2 A l l i a n c e Commitments and Bar I n v o l v e m e n t : F r a n c e , 1815-1885 3 A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : R u s s i a , 1815-1885 4 A l l i a n c e Commitments and Bar I n v o l v e m e n t : A u s t r i a , 1815-1885 5 A l l i a n c e Commitments and Bar I n v o l v e m e n t : P r u s s i a , 1815-1885 6 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : A u s t r i a , 1815-1885 7 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : P r u s s i a , 1815-1885 8 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : R u s s i a , 1815-1885 9 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : F r a n c e , 1815-1885 10 D e f e n s e A l l i a n a e Commitments and B a r : U n i t e d Kingdom, 1815-1885  iv  194 195 195 196 197 198 198 199 200 201  fl  V I : 11 V I : 12 V I : 13 V I : 14 V I : 15 VI: 16 V I : 17 V I : 18 V I : 19 V I : 20 V I : 21 V I : 22 VI: VI: VI: VI: VI:  23 24 25 26 27  V I : 28 V I : 29 V I : 30 V I : 31 V I : 32 V I : 33 V I : 34 V I : 35 V I : 36 V I : 37 V I : 38 V I : 39 V I : 40 V I : 41  A l l i a n c e Commitments and E a r I n v o l v e m e n t : I t a l y , 1860-1945 A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : E u s s i a / O S S E , 1885-1945 A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : F r a n c e , 1885-1945 A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : O n i t e d Kingdom, 1885-1945 A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y , 1885-1914 A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : Germany, 1885-1945 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : O n i t e d Kingdom, 1885-1945 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : F r a n c e , 1885-1945 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : E u s s i a / O S S E , 1885-1945 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : Germany, 1885-1945 D e f e n s e A l l i a n c e Commitments and B a r : A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y , 1885-1914 G r e a t P o v e r E n t e n t e s and A c t i v i s t B a r A g a i n s t A N o n - G r e a t Power, 1815-1885 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : F r a n c e , 1815-1875 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : P r u s s i a , 1815-1875 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : A u s t r i a , 1815-1875 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : R u s s i a , 1815-1875 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : O n i t e d Kingdom, 1815-1875 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h R a t e s and B a r : F r a n c e , 1875-1939 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : Germany, 1875-1B39 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y , 1875-1914 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : R u s s i a / U S S R E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : O n i t e d Kingdom, 1875-1939 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : I t a l y , 1860-1940 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h R a t e s and B a r : J a p a n , 1895-1939 E c o n o m i c Growth R a t e s and B a r : O n i t e d S t a t e s , 1895-194Q G r e a t Power B a r s On K o n d r a t i e f f B a v e s , 1815-1945 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , E n t e n t e s , and A c t i v i s t B a r A g a i n s t a N o n - G r e a t Power: R u s s i a , 1815-1885 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , E n t e n t e s , and A c t i v i s t B a r A g a i n s t a Non-Great Power: P r u s s i a , 1815-1885 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , E n t e n t e s , and A c t i v i s t B a r A g a i n s t a Non-Great Power: F r a n c e , 1815-1885 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , E n t e n t e s , and A c t i v i s t B a r A g a i n s t a Non-Great Power: A u s t r i a , 1815-1885 E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , E n t e n t e s , and A c t i v i s t B a r A g a i n s t a N o n - G r e a t Power: 0. K. 1815-1885  V  202 203 205 205 205 205 20 6 206 206 207 207 211 219 222 222 223 225 22 8 230 231 231 233 234 237 238 241 246 246 247 247 247  Chapter  711: R e l a t i v e  VII:1 V I I : :2 VII: 3 VII: 4 VII: 5 VII: 6 VII: 7 VII: 8 VII: 9 V I I : 10 V I I : 11 V I I : 12 V I I : 13 V I I : 14 V I I : 15 V I I : 16 VII:17 VII:18 VII:19 VII:20 VII:21  Power P o s i t i o n ,  Bank And B a r  B e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n (No A l l i a n c e s ) a n d Bar I n v o l v e m e n t : G r e a t Powers, 1815-1945 B e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n ( A l l A l l i a n c e s ) and B a r I n v o l v e m e n t : G r e a t Powers, 1815-1945 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and B a r : P r u s s i a , 1815-1860 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and B a r : P r u s s i a , 1860-1900 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and B a r : F r a n c e , 1815-1860 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and B a r : F r a n c e , 1860-1900 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: A u s t r i a , 1815-1860 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and B a r : A u s t r i a , 1860-1900 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: R u s s i a , 1815-1860 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n a n d War: R u s s i a , 1860-1900 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: O n i t e d Kingdom, 1815-1860 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y , 1900-1914 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: Germany, 1900-1939 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n , and War: F r a n c e , 1900-1939 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n a n d War: O n i t e d Kingdom, 1900-1939 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n , and War: R u s s i a / O S S R , 1900-1939 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: J a p a n , 1915-1940 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n and War: I t a l y , 1900-1940 Power C a p a b i l i t i e s : E u r o p e a n G r e a t Powers, 1815-1875 Power C a p a b i l i t i e s : E u r o p e a n G r e a t Powers, 1860-1900 Power C a p a b i l i t i e s : E u r o p e a n G r e a t Powers, 1900-1940  vi  257 259 264 265 267 269 270 272 273 273 276 28 0 280 281 281 282 285 287 298 307 314  Acknowledgements  I am g r a t e f u l t o many p e o p l e f o r t i m e , p r o d d i n g , advice, t a l e n t s , c r i t i c i s m s , and d a t a David J . Elkins supervised my work and r a n v a r i o u s a d m i n i s t r a t i v e h u r d l e s f o r me. Kal J. H o l s t i and M i c h a e l D» Wallace were t h e members o f my d i s s e r t a t i o n committee. Over t h e y e a r s I have l e a r n e d much a b o u t s o c i a l s c i e n c e and w o r l d p o l i t i c s f r o m them and from O l e R- H o l s t i (now a t Duke D n i v e r s i t y ) . Thank you. T h i s t h e s i s would n o t e x i s t w i t h o u t t h e work o f members o f t h e C o r r e l a t e s o f Bar p r o j e c t under the d i r e c t i o n of J , David Singer a t the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan. I t h a n k them f o r t h e use o f t h e i r d a t a s e t s and hope t h a t t h e y f i n d some m e r i t i n what I have done with them. T u n - J e n Cheng, Md. A b d u l Hakim, and Enzo B a r r a a s s i s t e d me i n t h e d r e a r y t a s k s o f c a l c u l a t i n g i n d e x numbers, and c h e c k i n g and r e - c h e c k i n g quotations, bibliography, and footnotes. G r a c e Logan showed me how t o r e d u c e t h e l a b o u r a thousand-fold. I t h a n k her and many o t h e r members o f Computing Services at the U n i v e r s i t y o f Waterloo who p a t i e n t l y suggested s o l u t i o n s t o t h e problems brought to them by a novice user of machines. The Department o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f W a t e r l o o p r o v i d e d me w i t h f u n d s f o r computer work. E s t h e r Macdonald, Joan Boyer, and L i z Smith t y p e d d r a f t s of the e a r l y Chapters. Trudy Moul and G a i l v a n V a r s e v e l d e d i t e d the f i n a l draft, and i n d o i n g s o , h e l p e d me t o c l a r i f y my t h o u g h t s . The a m b i g u i t i e s which r e m a i n a r e , more often than not, p l a c e s where I s t u b b o r n l y refused their expert advice. G a i l van V a r s e v e l d a l s o put most o f t h e t e x t i n t o machine r e a d a b l e f o r m . I v a n Avakumovic ( H i s t o r y ) s a v e d me f r o m a number o f h i s t o r i c a l blunders. B r u c e Bueno de M e s g u i t a ( U n i v e r s i t y o f R o c h e s t e r ) , R a n d o l p h M. Siverson (University of C a l i f o r n i a , D a v i s ) , P e t e r A. B u s c h , and D. G. P a t t e r s o n (Economics) made very u s e f u l c r i t i c i s m s . T r u d y d i d w i t h o u t a husband and F r a n c i s and Suzanne d i d w i t h o u t a f a t h e r d u r i n g t o o many summers. I hope t h a t t h e y w i l l f o r g i v e me.  vii  ABSTRACT  GREAT POWER WAR, 1815-1945:  AN EXAMINATION OF  SOME POWER POLITICS ARGUMENTS  The concept 'the balance o f power propositions, all maximize power.  1  covers a w e l t e r o f c o n f l i c t i n g  o f which f o l l o w from the b a s i c assumption t h a t The purpose o f t h i s  t h e s i s i s to examine  states  empirically  some o f the c o n f l i c t i n g power p o l i t i c s arguments c o n c e r n i n g the causes of each g r e a t powers' wars from 1815 to 1945. to be mustering y e t  if  a n y , o f these s t a t i s t i c a l  the arguments which they p u r p o r t to t e s t . test  I may appear  another p a r t y to e x p l o r e very f a m i l i a r  the power p o l i t i c s arguments have a t t r a c t e d However, few,  As s u c h ,  grounds f o r  many q u a n t i t a t i v e  studies.  a n a l y s e s are r e l e v a n t Therefore, this  of commonplace arguments and a demonstration o f the  to  thesis is a  inappropriate-  ness of the commonplace methodology. Sixteen propositions r e l a t i n g growth, and r e l a t i v e interstate  a l l i a n c e commitments,  power p o s i t i o n to great  industrial  power p a r t i c i p a t i o n  war are drawn from the power p o l i t i c s  'paradigm.'  examined u s i n g data s e t s from the C o r r e l a t e s o f War P r o j e c t , with o t h e r time s e r i e s .  My methods are l e s s e l e g a n t than the  analyses but the r e s u l t s a r e , t h e r e b y , While there  sturdier  types o f a l l i e s  Each i s augmented statistical  stuff.  i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between non-defense commitments  between g r e a t powers and a c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n a smaller s t a t e ,  in  there  by some o f them a g a i n s t  are no a s s o c i a t i o n s between the number o f v a r i o u s  and involvement i n war.  vi i i  The f o u r p r o p o s i t i o n s l i n k i n g economic p r o s p e r i t y and war involvement  r e c e i v e modest s u p p o r t .  They are modest p r o p o s i t i o n s .  For example, a c t i v i s t wars o c c u r r e d i n times o f high economic growth but high growth r a t e s years and few wars.  cannot p r e d i c t  to war.  There are many prosperous  Four o f the r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n p r o p o s i t i o n s  have the same l i m i t a t i o n .  Wars o c c u r a f t e r an i n c r e a s e i n  power p o s i t i o n but most i n c r e a s e s do not l e a d to Parity  relative  war.  o f g e o p o l i t i c a l l y n o n - s e p a r a t e d g r e a t powers i n c r e a s e s  l i k e l i h o o d o f war between them.  Preponderance and g e o p o l i t i c a l  preserve peace.  ix,  the  barriers  Chapter I INTRODUCTION  1.1  GREAT POWERS AND While the  threat  WAR  of  war p e r v a d e s  p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war i s q o t  States,  and  c a n and  in  more w a r - p r o n e t h a n o t h e r s numerous o t h e r i n t e r s t a t e  dependent. state,  1  The h i g h e r  do engage i n w a r f a r e ;  just  and  more i n t e r n a t i o n a l  The the  most  but  powers, a r e  participation  t e n d s t o be r a n k . more  powerful the  and t h e more f a t a l i t i e s i t  a s i t t r a d e s more g o o d s , e x p o r t s more c a p i t a l  active  1815-1945 p e r i o d  clubs than those  less  combatants i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l are l i s t e d  Table  1  Warfare, l i k e  t h e rank or the  inflicts, joins  the great  activities,  t h e more w a r s i t f i g h t s  across the  according to the conventional  members o f a d i s t i n c t c l a s s o f s t a t e s , far  system,  randomly d i s t r i b u t e d  population of states. legal definition,  the s t a t e  i n Table  powerful.  war  during  1:1.  1:1  The p h r a s e i s J o h a n G a l t u n g ' s . See, f o r example, the e s s a y s i n h i s P e a c e And World S t r u c t u r e : E s s a y s I n Peace R e s e a r c h , v o l . I V (Copenhagen: C h r i s t i a n E j l e r s , 1980) .  1a Table  1:1  State P a r t i c i p a t i o n In. War, 1.815-1945 State Interstate (Great Power) Wars  E x t r a Systemic Wars  Total Wars  B a t t l e Deaths Suffered  France (1815-1940)  10  4  14  1 813 540  Italy (1860-1945)  10  1  11  759 600  10  6  16  756 400  Bussia/OSSB (1815-1917, 1921- )  8  5  13  9 605 560  Japan (1895-1945)  7  0  7  1 365 300  Austria (1815-1918)  6  2  8  1 287 200  Prussia/Germany (1815-1918, 1925-1945)  6  0  6  5 353 500  6  0  6  53 270  5  11  16  1 293 590  Spain  5  4  9  188 900  China  5  0  5  2 170 000  4  1  5  554 800  Bumania  4  0  4  639 500  Bulgaria  4  0  4  74 000  Turkey  Greece Onited Kingdom (1815)  Onited S t a t e s (1898)  S o u r c e : J . D a v i d S i n g e r and M e l v i n S t a t i s t i c a l Handbook (New Y o r k :  4:2.  S m a l l , The Wa^es Of War: A John W i l e y , 1972), Table  Although more, The  some s m a l l e r  wars t h a n  s t a t e s were  some g r e a t p o w e r s ,  over-representation of  more s t r i k i n g  i f Table  remaining  hundred  of  the  interstate  wars and 130  one  the  years  end —  and than  and  states,  the  the  caused  The  The  Russia/USSR, more  War  of  Italy, occasions,  minority their  wars S i n g e r  for this  period.  w a r s and category, can  modern wars and  those  casualit4.es  more  one  2  among  number  and  Small  If  concentrate this be  from  the  Napoleonic  France,  least  far  members  Kingdom,  to suffer  at  be  powers o f  S i m i l a r percentages of  clear.  were  of the  on  or  to i n c l u d e  Always a d i s t i n c t  interstate  is  great  fought  i m p e r i a l or c o l o n i a l  more r e s t r i c t i v e  end  international  Wages Of  Wright's c o m p i l a t i o n  3  80  —  others  powers had  great  drops minutely.  2  II-  States  the  the  the  United  powers.  in  expanded  Austria/-Hungary, United  pattern  s t a t e s which  between  non-great  catalogued  be  twenty  War  the  many,  g r e a t powers w o u l d  could  namely t h e  engaged i n 6535 o f t h e  discount  and  o f World  s u f f e r e d and the  the  1:1  system  Prussia/Germany, Japan,  i n v o l v e d i n as  we upon  percentage  obtained  from  Richardson's  J. David Singer and H e l v i n S m a l l , The Wages o f 1 8 1 6 - 1 9 6 5 : A' S t a t i s t i c a l H a n d b o o k (New York: Wiley, T a b l e s 4:2 a n d 4: 4.  War, 1972),  Q u i n c y W r i g h t , A S t u d y O f War, 2nd e d . , rev. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1964); Lewis Richardson, S t a t i s t i c s o f Deadly Q u a r r e l s , (Pittsburg: Boxwood P r e s s , 1960) . S i n g e r and S m a l l compare t h e i r c o m p i l a t i o n of wars and c a s u a l i t i e s w i t h t h o s e o f W r i g h t and Richardson i n T a b l e 5:2 o f Wages O f War. George M o d e l s k i performs t h e Great Powers," Peace  similar computations i n "War and Research Society (International)  list  of deadly  Singer  quarrels.3  and S m a l l ,  n o t i n g which p a r t y the  Puthermore,  determine the i n i t a t o r first  attacked  This  fact  non-great China, great  nearly  accounts  of  at least  a l l were i n i t i a t e d  e a c h war by find  listed  more o f t e n t h a n n o t ,  one g r e a t  by a g r e a t  i n Table  1:1-  were t h e o b j e c t s  a s s o c i a t i o n between war a n d g r e a t  not unexpectedand  their  A defining quality  continues  effectively. with  by a  by a great  of a aeries  Japan.*  The s t r o n g  been,  power.  of attack  power and most o f h e r c a s u a l t i e s were t h e r e s u l t  is  power  T u r k e y and  A l l o f C h i n a ' s wars were i n i t i a t e d  o f wars w i t h  that, of  f o r t h e a b n o r m a l w a r - p r o n e n e s s o f t h e few  powers f o u n d  power.  following  i n f o r c e , we  52 i n t e r n a t i o n a l wars i n w h i c h  participated,  i f we,  t o be,  more e x t e n s i v e  system.  However,  important  than  whole matter,"  participation  and " t h i s  to incur a  continues  war."  Wight,  to  states  power h a s  wage war  powers a r e c o m m e n s u r a t e i n the inter-state  i n Wight's judgement,  interests"  powers c a n a f f o r d  of a great  the capacity  The i n t e r e s t s o f g r e a t  power  " power  means t h a t "We  might  "by s a y i n g  i s more  the great simplify  that  a  the  Great  £apjg£S/ 18(1972), 45-59. He shows t h a t while the b a t t l e f i e l d s have s h i f t e d from the t e r r i t o r i e s of the center states towards the t e r r i t o r i e s o f the periphery s i n c e W o r l d War I I , t h e i n v o l v e m e n t o f t h e g r e a t powers i n war r e m a i n s h i g h . See a l s o I s t v a n Kende, "Twenty-five Y e a r s o f L o c a l Wars," J o u r n a l Of P e a c e R e s e a r c h , 8 (1.971) , 5-22 and "Wars o f Ten Years (1967-1976)", J o u r n a l Of Peace R e s e a r c h , 15 ( 1 9 7 8 ) , 227-241. * The m i l i t a r y i n i t i a t o r s of interstate i n Wages Of War, pp.366-370.  wars  are i d e n t i f i e d  Power i s  one  t h a t can  whatever i n s i n g l e the  afford  combat."  intimate connections  criterion,  as  to take  Bight  Although  Italy  to take  certainly  unification, Prussia,  Italy  occupied  as  power w h a t e v e r  not  do  so.  joined the  with  their  industrial  and  demonstrating,  Italy,  on  the  E u r o p e a n wars, Africa  i n the  s t a t u s "by herself  was 19th  courtesy"  to  the  Italy's ally  century,  century,  P r u s s i a enhanced her  position  the  power h i e r a r c h y w i t h  a  5  a  achieved  to to  and  fight, fight.  successfully  great  ability 5  a g r e a t power a t t h e b e g i n n i n g i n the  in  ventures  to  in  power attach  Prussia,  followed the  Already  great  ability  power w a r s .  pattern.  and  more t h a n  military  the  S e v e n Weeks war,  France,  with which  yet maintained  i n great  combat."  increasing their  fought  o f o t h e r s and  not  wars o f n a t i o n a l  peers  by  humbled d u r i n g h e r  winners  i n the  Her  the  rarely  this  g r e a t power s e t ,  capabilities  hand,  to  matter.  Kingdom,  position  when n e c e s s a r y ,  other  the  them a p o s i t i o n f a r  predominant military  her  United the  war,  in single  After  Austria in  power  g r e a t powers c o u l d  above t h a t o f o r d i n a r y s t a t e s .  maintained  and  any  other  pointing correctly  i s aware, o v e r s i m p l i f i e s  could  R u s s i a and  thereafter notch  on  any  between s t a t e power and  Some s t a t e s which were a c c e p t e d "afford  on  of  textbook the  Bund and  s e r i e s o f wars a g a i n s t  19th in her  H a r t i n W i g h t , Power P o l i t i c s (London: Royal I n s t i t u t e of International Affairs, 1946),p.19.. A r e v i s e d and much expanded v e r s i o n o f Power P o l i t i c s has been p u b l i s h e d under t h e e d i t o r i a l s u p e r v i s i o n o f H e d l e y B u l l a n d C a r s t e n Holbrand. See Power P o l i t i c s ( L e i c e s t e r U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s : L e i c e s t e r , 1978).  5 neighbours: 1895,  Denmark, A u s t r i a and France.  Japan j o i n e d the European great powers a f t e r  China.  The  defeating  Onited  S t a t e s soon  followed i n  a l s o do  they become  surrendering i n temporarily,  1922.  Germany  while her  ally,  civil  war,  her a l l i e s , I t a l y and The r e l a t i o n s h i p  wars and  so  After  Austria-Hungary, from the i n 1917  withdrew from world  was  g r e a t power and  rent  affairs  by until  I I once more removed Germany  Japan, from the g r e a t power s e t .  between great  power s t a t u s  wars 'cause' great powers.  o f these s t a t e s i s thought t o i n t h i s feedback process-  war,  power s t a t u s  appears t o be s e l f - p e r p e t u a t i n g and c i r c u l a r : 1  after  by means of  l o s t great  defeated by Germany  The v i c t o r s of World War  •cause  defeating  1898  once again.  permanently excluded  Russia,  r e v o l u t i o n and  mere s t a t e s  1919,  dismembered and ranks.  in  Spain.  J u s t as s t a t e s become g r e a t powers  and  Similarly,  War,  and  war  g r e a t powers Often the  be the most i m p o r t a n t  element  i n Kohr's assessment,  i s the consequence not of e v i l schemes or e v i l d i s p o s i t i o n but of the power t h a t i s generated by excessive s o c i a l size. For whenever a nation becomes l a r g e enough to accumulate the c r i t i c a l mass of power, i t w i l l i n the end accumulate i t . And when i t has acquired i t , i t w i l l become an aggressor, i t s previous r e c o r d and i n t e n t i o n s t o the c o n t r a r y n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g . The mystery o f t h e i r war-mindedness was always t h e i r sudden a c q u i s i t i o n of power, as the mystery of t h e i r c o n v e r s i o n to the abandoned ways of peace was always t h e i r sudden l o s s of power. Nothing e l s e ever c o u n t e d . 6  6  Leopold  Kohr,  The  Breakdown of Nations  (1957;  size  rpt.  6 Others d i s a g r e e  and  stress  r e l a t i o n s h i p among  the  nature  the great powers  t h e i r war-proneness.  of the  i n order  Bather than s i z e £er  interto explain  se,  argues  Wright, the more important reason f o r the excessive b e l l i g e r e n c y of g r e a t powers... lies i n the structure of the balance of power, which p r a c t i c a l l y assures that a l l great powers w i l l enter wars which t h r e a t e n the balance i n o r d e r to preserve i t , a r e s p o n s i b i l i t y which the s m a l l e r . s t a t e s do not h a v e 7  S t i l l o t h e r s argue t h a t peace among the s m a l l e r s t a t e s i s maintained  by c o l l u s i o n  competition  between  of t h e great powers  them i s r e g u l a t e d  power.  Bather than a s s u r i n g war,  prevents  great  power war  and  and  by the  balance  the balance  keeps the l e s s  that t i e of  o f power  powerful  in  check. The purpose  of t h i s t h e s i s  these c o n f l i c t i n g views  i s to  examine e m p i r i c a l l y  o f the balance  of  power and  prominent "power p o l i t i c s " t h e o r i e s concerning each great power's power" entered  wars from 1815,  the d i p l o m a t i c vocabulary,  the d i s t i n c t i o n between the " g r e a t " became necessary.  "Science"  a f r a y fought  un,der  the term  "great  u n t i l 1945, the  when  " s u p e r " powers  would be f u t i l e and  Wright, A Study Of W a r .  to " s c i e n t i f i c " .  the banners of foolish.  Llandybie, Carmarthenshire: pp.35, 38-39. 7  and  the causes o f  These t h e o r i e s are o f t e n and p e j o r a t i v e l y  labelled " t r a d i t i o n a l , " i n contrast join i n  when  other  p.849.  The  To  "Wisdom" and c a r i c a t u r e s of  Christopher Davis,  197ft),  the  "traditionalists"  works  as  "insight  inflammatory  1.2  as "incompleat  t h e o r i s t s " and o f t h e i r  without evidence"  a n d more t o t h e p o i n t .  are  less  8  OVERVIEW Hoffmann c o n t e n d s  "indispensable  to  that the "balance the understanding  relations",  " d e s p i t e the very  the notion  and t h e e q u a l l y  of of  different  power"  meanings a n d uses o f  d i v e r g e n t assessments  realities  ambiguity  i n many c o n c e p t i o n s o f t h e b a l a n c e  chameleon-like  t o which i t r e f e r s . "  t h e s t a t u s quo a n t e I  am  concerned  g r e a t powers. "war"  i s  between t y p e s  with the i n c i d e n c e  source o f  o f power i s t h e i n one p l a c e war  and i n s t i l l  another,  o f t h e wars  o f the  G r e a t power war may be d e f i n e d p r e c i s e l y , b u t T h e r e a r e good  between t y p e s o f war and, of involvement  discuss the categories then  o f the  bellum.  a b l a n k e t term-  differentiating  peace;  One  9  nature o f t h e explanandum:  t o be e x p l a i n e d ; i n a n o t h e r ,  remains  international  political  is  far  in  war-  o f war and o f  reasons f o r more i m p o r t a n t l y ,  In Chapter involvement  d e s c r i b e t h e war e x p e r i e n c e o f e a c h  II I i n war,  o f t h e g r e a t powers  8  J . D a v i d S i n g e r , "The I n c o m p l e a t T h e o r i s t : I n s i g h t W i t h o u t Evidence," i n Contending A p p r o a c h e s To International Relations, ed. Klaus Knorr and James N. Rosenau ( P r i n c e t o n : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s 1 9 6 9 ) , pp.62-86-  9  Stanley Hoffmann, "Balance o f Power," International E n c y c l o p a e d i a o f t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s (New Y o r k : Macmillan and F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 ) . C f . S i d n e y F a y , " B a l a n c e o f Power," E n c y l c o p a e d i a o f t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s (New Y o r k : M a c m i l l a n , 1930)-.  8 in  the  1815-1945 p e r i o d .  Deadly  of  Quarrels,  particularly. once  Wright's  Singer's  formidable  Thanks to  task  A  Study  and S m a l l ' s  is  now  a  Richardson's  The  Of  War  Wages  relatively  Statistics  of  and, War,  this  straightforward  one. On t h e  other  power  of  hand,  the  explanation  of  straightforward of  power",  protect i f  such  the  confined of  to  specific  a particular  exists some  a set  of  cannot  Figure balance found others does  power  power  be  describe  literature  as  suggested,  jeopardy,  "balance  and within where the  the  key  they  of  the  and do  power"  works  concepts  of are  empirical implications theory  are  theory.  At  and a l l  the  of of  often beat  interstate which  nomological Some  but  visibility  a whole-  of  to  there war,  wobble  about  woven  by  maximization.  theorists-  its  serve  jeopardy,  single  particular conceptions  could  "balance  in  power  conflicting,  phrase  placed  explanations  summarizes  1:1  of  in  of  no  a  in  meaning  of  the  balance  not  it  definitions,  is  of  i s  place  theories  putative  are  assumption  The  to be  war  the  explanandum,  Moreover,  There of  which  than  balance  contradictory.  power  changing  different  theorists.  determining  ambiguities  rather  theories  between  individual  an  the  remain s c i e n t i f i c -  varies  great  The  as  theory  scientific  not  one.  problem of  These  of the and  of the  the  net  strands  balance  thickness  of of  importance  propositions  are  not  power, each  in  and  strand  the  relating  great  9 power  war  r e l a t i v e  to  a l l i a n c e  power  Chapter  a c t i v i t y ,  position  are  i n d u s t r i a l  discussed  theory  promise  of  of  power  great  f a c t o ,  experiment  or  competing  more  not  e x i s t .  mess,  I  t h i s  which  the  not  "A  i s  a  c l u s t e r  The  promise  p r e m i s s . "  1  0  empirically  the  c o n f l i c t i n g "Realist"  to  may  would  power  i s a  neither  eliminate  into  i n  of  r i v a l  tidy  work  commonplace  conclusions found  save  one  of  i s  to  another  do  power a  l e s s  of  a  examine  and,  yet  two  conseguenoes.  search  the  of  with  in  i n  post  theories  assumption  deduce  t h i s  ex  balance  conclusions  of  p l a u s i b l e ,  to  f u l l - f l e d g e d  a l b e i t  a l l  the  maximization  proceeded  a  d e c i s i v e ,  Articulate  reached  and  theory  nor  theories.  have  replaced  war  one,  very  upon  1:1  thesis  permissive  I  elaborated  and  III-  Figure  The  and  c a p a b i l i t i e s  at  times,  " t r a d i t i o n a l "  or  l i t e r a t u r e . appear  familiar  examine  to  be  mustering  ground.  have  Most  attracted  Modelski,  reviewing  p o l i t i c s ,  declares  behavioral  r e v o l u t i o n ) . - ,  10  Russell  Norwood  Cambridge  the  "the did  Hanson,  the  arguments  empirical  recent  that  University  of  history  of  l i t t l e  p_f  1965),  the  I  propose  study  than  Discovery p-90.  explore  Indeed  advances  more  to  which  studies.  technical  Patterns  Press,  party  of (of  give  world the some  (Cambridge:  Figure Theoretical Relationships  In  The  1:1 Power P o l i t i c s  literature  quantitative There  i s more  However, that  dimensions than  I think  few,  refers seriously Many o f t h e confront  the  truth  the  balance of  theories-""  in this  position.  i s more s i g n i f i c a n t  to  the  statistical  to  confront  the  doing  not  than  so.  of  studies  familiar  studies  More o f t e n  Realist balance  Realist  i t  only are  not The  Morgenthau's argument t h a t  analysis; the  little  p r o p o s i t i o n ^ which  p r e v e n t them f r c m  his  of  "relevant"  Chapter I I I .  not  a  that  i f any,  to familiar  power  argument i s t h a t  a  Realist do  not,  they  one  Chapter  the  I V i s between  quantitative  does e x i s t .  power a r g u m e n t s p r o p e r l y ,  in  advances  b a r r i e r must e x i s t t h e o r y and  he  cannot,  below  technical  argument of  which  arguments.  discussed  the  recognize  1 2  To  examine  b a r r i e r must  be  overcome.  1 1  1  2  George M o d e l s k i , P r i n c i p l e s o f World P o l i t i c s (New York: The F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 7 2 ) , p.7T h i s i s a l s o the conclusion o f J . Handelman, J . Vasque.2, M. O ' L e a r y and WGoplin i n t h e i r paper " C o l o r I t Morgenthau: A Data-based Assessment of Quantitative International Relations," p r e s e n t e d at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, New York, March 1973. ( C i t e d i n John Vasguaz, "Statistical Findings in International Politics," International Studies Quarterly, 20 (June 1976), 210. C i t a t i o n patterns r e v e a l the barrier and i t s semipermeable n a t u r e . Favourable references to Hans J Morgenthau's classic Politics Among Nations flow p e a c e f u l l y to t h e bottom o f pages i n "Indicators of C r o s s - N a t i o n a l and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P a t t e r n s " , f o r example. There they s h a r e the space with n o t e s such as " t h i s a n a l y s i s comprised the o b l i q u e ( b i q u a r t i i a i n ) r o t a t i o n o f the i n i t i a l fifteen factor solution." Rummel* the a u t h o u r o f t h i s p a p e r , d o e s use a w a t e r s i m i l e : As t h e course of a r i v e r i s determined by t h e fertile valleys through which i t f l o w s , so i s quantitative research c h a n n e l l e d by traditional  11 If  the  balance  work o f t h e  o f power t h e o r i e s a r e deemed  "incompleat  s t u d i e s which they his opposite compleat  number,  f a c t s of the the by  h i s method.  is  not  cannot  as  i s not  the naive  inductionist,  The  wary o f a s  avoid  one  demand p a r t i c u l a r  proudly  might  compleat  problem a t hand,  presence  empiricist".  w h i c h he  so t h a t t h e F e l l o w s  the  "compleat  busied  put  are  but they then  Royal  the  trunks Society The  generally r e l e v a n t to  are rendered  irrelevant  which t h e c o m p l e a t  empiricist  one  fact  he  should  methods and  not  together explanations.  empiricist  another-  to the  of  The  himself c o l l e c t i n g willed  the  quantitative  the  i n d i v i d u a l who  of m i s c e l l a n i a  many o f t h e  have a t t r a c t e d s u g g e s t  empiricist  apocryphal  theorist",  t o be  be i s t h a t t h e o r y  Particular  types  of  and  method  problems  h i s methods a r e i n a p p r o p r i a t e .  i n s i g h t and knowledge. Together the l a n d and r i v e r p r o d u c e an a b u n d a n t h a r v e s t and t o g e t h e r t h e . precision and reliability of quantitative scholarship combined with the rich comprehensiveness of t r a d i t i o n a l s c h o l a r s h i p bear new f r u i t . ( A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , 63 (March 1969) , 128-129. To c o n t i n u e t h e s i m i l e , Morgenthau's c i t a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h a t things simply have gone d o w n h i l l There i s a strong c o n t i n u i t y i n the references i n P o l i t i c s Among N a t i o n s f r o m t h e f i r s t e d i t i o n i n 1948 onwardsT h e r e a r e no r e f e r e n c e s t o any s t a t i s t i c a l s t u d i e s i n t h e l a t e s t e d i t i o n . F o r an example o f t h e good use t o which c i t a t i o n p a t t e r n s can be p u t locating various schools of international r e l a t i o n s s c h o l a r s , s e e B r u c e M. Russett, "Methodological and T h e o r e t i c a l Schools i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l Relations,", i n A Design f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s Research: Scope, Theory, Methods, and R e l e v a n c e , Monograph No. 10, A m e r i c a n Academy o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l S c i e n c e , edNorman D. Palmer ( P h i l a d e l p h i a , October 1970), pp.87-105. In t h i s area of r e s e a r c h J o h n M o r t o n ' s "on Recursive Reference," Cognition, 4 (1976), 309 i s a d e f i n i t i v e t r e a t m e n t .  To  solve  eliminate  a problem,  o r more  accurately to  s o l u t i o n s t o a problem,  structure  of  the  measurement a r e  problem i s  three types  of  disorganized  an a p p r e c i a t i o n o f  essential.  t o conform t o the  problem r a t h e r than  the  o t h e r way  scientific  complexity  of  Method  around.  analogy  Heaver uses  describes  organized complexity  a billiard  when d i s c u s s i n g R e a l i s t  the  simplicity,  t h e methods a p p r o p r i a t e t o e a c h o f them. distinctions  of  Heaver  of  the  and  shape o r form  problems —  and  try to  —  When m a k i n g  ball  analogy,  theories,  and  of and these  a very  one  I now  apt will  elaborate. I m a g i n e one and at  direction  wish  of  wish  sort,  variables, with the  the b i l l i a r d t a b l e : to  calculate  This i s a simple  and  to determine  this  on  complicate  the d i r e c t i o n  the.  and  various times.  e v e n i f we  of  ball  i t with speed  i f and  involving  occupied  one  students  a d d i t i o n o f another  problems  rapidly  available techniques.  became  problem  which we  where t h e y or  know i t s s p e e d  i t s course  the a d d i t i o n  of  we  and of  another  collide-  objects  position  remains  know a l s o .  will two  and  then  another  insurmountable  Weaver w r i t e s t h a t now  ball,  Now  we  Problems  and  few  of c l a s s i c a l dynamics. ball,  so  and with we  But another, the should  imagine a large b i l l i a r d table with m i l l i o n s of balls r o l l i n g over i t s surface, colliding w i t h one a n o t h e r and with the side rails. The g r e a t s u r p r i s e i s t h a t the p r o b l e m now becomes e a s i e r , f o r the methods o f s t a t i s t i c a l mechanics are applicable. To be s u r e the d e t a i l e d h i s t o r y of one s p e c i a l b a l l c a n n o t be t r a c e d , but c e r t a i n  13  important questions can be answered with useful precision, such a s : on the average how many balls-.? (T)he methods of s t a t i s t i c a l mechanics are v a l i d o n l y when the b a l l s are d i s t r i b u t e d , i n their p o s i t i o n s and t h e i r motions, in a helterskelter, t h a t i s t o say a d i s o r g a n i z e d w a y . 1 3  Now imagine f a r the t a b l e : speeds,  l e s s than m i l l i o n s of b i l l i a r d  they a r e d i f f e r e n t  often congregating  t r a v e l l i n g i n tandem; probable, very  helter-skelter  c o l l i s i o n s are r a r e ,  In short,  or random:  paths of  and move a t  various  at o p p o s i t e ends of the t a b l e  and the m a j o r i t y o f  large b a l l s .  c h a r t the  sizes  b a l l s upon  but not  and  equi-  c o l l i s i o n s i n v o l v e the  few  movement and c o l l i s i o n are not  they have an order to them.  the b a l l s  and  t o account  for  To  their  p e r i o d i c c o l l i s i o n s i s not a problem of s i m p l i c i t y nor i s one of" d i s o r g a n i z e d c o m p l e x i t y . s i z a b l e number o f  factors  which are i n t e r r e l a t e d  o r g a n i c whole," or o r g a n i z e d Whereas F i g u r e 1 : 1 , propositions, F i g u r e 1:2, they  have  simplicity.  1  3  W.  36 1  4  complexity.  the q u a n t i t a t i v e  describes  a set  The n o m o l o g i c a l net becomes,  Weaver,  "Science  i n t o an  1 4  a problem of o r g a n i z e d  which summarizes  (1948) , 537-538.  "a  which summarizes the b a l a n c e o f power  describes  attracted,  The problem i n v o l v e s  it  and  Complexity,"  complexity. work which  of problems under  American  of  quantita±ive  Scientist,  Ibid., 539. Also see H e r b e r t Simon's essay "The A r c h i t e c t u r e of Complexity" i n h i s book The S c i e n c e s o f the A r t i f i c i a l (Cambridge: The M-I.TPress,1969) and Jean Piaget, Structuralism (1970; r p t . New Y o r k : H a r p e r 8  Row,  1971).  14. scrutiny, relative tied  a knot: power  directly  each o f  position  t h e key f a c t o r s  and i n d u s t r i a l  -- a l l i a n c e s ,  capabilities  —  i s  and a u t o n o m o u s l y t o i n t e r s t a t e w a r .  F i g u r e 1:2  Of  course  s o c i a l world enable  we  must b r e a k a p a r t t h e  i n order t o understand  us t o r e t u r n t h e p i e c e s  whole i s d i f f e r e n t the  relative  that  state's  and  upon  power  from  the  by  primitive  The  these  and  complexity.  example,  power d e p e n d s upon  the  development  industrial  o t h e r g r e a t powers.  of  the existing  When t h e  the prospects empirical riches  a r e diminished  complex p r o p o s i t i o n s a r e t u r n e d over  t o methods s u i t a b l e  The common t e c h n i q u e s  assumptions which, I argue, incompatible  F o r example,  industrial  and  The  are diminished-  ones and t u r n e d  single  and  e m p i r i c a l r i c h e s themselves  organized  whole.  f a c t o r s a r e broken,  accumulation  a theorist  t o a coherent  activity  development o f each o f t h e  for  b u t some ways do n o t  o f a great  activity  alliance  strands connecting  it,  t h e sum o f t h e p a r t s .  position  alliance  complexities o f the  with  many o f  strands  cross-sectional  statistical  simple  of analysis r e s t  war a r e  manipulations.  upon  often are  organized complexity.  to interstate  The  to disorganized  the c o n c l u s i o n s about the  leading  into  must be met and w h i c h  problems o f  also.  For  strength o f products of This  cross-  14 a  INDUSTRY  RELATIVE POWER POSITION  Figure wer P o l i t i c s  1:2  R e l a t i o n s h i p s Examined I n E m p i r i c a l  Studie  15 sectional analysis  mode o f a n a l y s i s a n d , more o f t e n  relations  requiring  remedy t h e sectional "leads"  p r e c l u d e s any m e a n i n g f u l  than not,  such a n a l y s i s .  frequently-noted  a n a l y s e s by  exacerbate  any m e a n i n g f u l Moreover,  static  to  recover t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s  by  analysis  of  dyads.  proceed from, order, demand f u r t h e r  attention.  This  found i n t h e e m p i r i c a l (1)  between p a i r s (3)  position; of the  they  of  of great  A s i d e from  lost  not t o  i n C h a p t e r V. position.  o f r e l a t i v e power  position  reviewed  differences  i n Chapter IV.  i n war p o t e n t i a l (2)  powers o r t h e r a t i o s ;  a n d (4)  of the t o t a l  i s the inability  t h e percentage  war p o t e n t i a l .  t h e rank  wasting information  power v i s - a - v i s  a l l of the  means o f r e d r e s s i n g  Each  fully  the existing powers. great  of individual  indices disregard  t h e balance —  denominator  the p o s i t i o n o f a  i n terms  from  o f these  between t h e g r e a t  about  i t s competitors  deviation  t h e common  to exploit  on t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s  capabilities,  have been  precede,  receive  has s i g n i f i c a n t l i m i t a t i o n s ,  information  do a t t e m p t s  the percentage share o f the t o t a l c a p a b i l i t i e s  mean s h a r e  which  "lags" or  o f r e l a t i v e power  studies  the absolute  a group o f s t a t e s ;  indices  which  cross-  t h e p r o b l e m s o f measurement a n d method  Four d i f f e r e n t types o f i n d i c e s  They a r e :  So a l s o  I f chaos i s t o  C o n s i d e r o n c e more t h e n o t i o n  are  of  of time  these d i f f i c u l t i e s .  interstate  attempts t o  character  the introduction  causal  alliances.  the p r i n c i p a l  16  To  measure  account is  relative  the a l l i a n c e  to insulate  the e m p i r i c a l  of  r e f e r s to a s e t of scales it  i n equilibrium;  balance,  alliance  subtracts  from  that  i s thought  i t i s a theory  I f the balance  in equilibrium,  adds  others; i f the balance  In  I demonstrate  the t e c h n i c a l  l i m i t a t i o n s o f the a v a i l a b l e a more s u i t a b l e  indices  t o a bank and  o f power r e f e r s t o t h e  o f power, b a l a n c e d o r n o t , a l l i a n c e s  V  maintain  t o some a c c o u n t s  confiquration Chapter  o f power  alliances  i f t h e b a l a n c e o f power r e f e r s participation  balance  o r t o m a i n t a i n t h e more  t h e r e i s no d o u b t  and c o u n t e r - a l l i a n c e -  into  another  the b a s i c  Whether t h e b a l a n c e o f power  "stability",  alliance  taking  make t o o n e  a n a l y s i s from  g e n e r a t e war, t o c o n t i n u e p e a c e ,  nebulous  without  commitments s t a t e s  o f power a r g u m e n t . to  power p o s i t i o n  alter i t .  and s u b s t a n t i v e  and d e s c r i b e a n d  i n d e x o f r e l a t i v e power  position  defend  which I  have c o n s t r u c t e d The like  alliance  consist  War  of annual  production, expenditures,  1 5  and t h e i n d i c a t o r s  of  war  potential,  t h e i n f o r m a t i o n on g r e a t power war, a r e p r o d u c t s o f t h e  Correlates of  While  data  Project.  1 5  The power  observations  number  of  and e n e r g y  some w e i g h t e d  on i r o n  military  production,  personnel,  consumption  combinations  capabilities  of  f o r each  data steel  military g r e a t power-  t h e s e and o t h e r  series  They a r e d e s c r i b e d b r i e f l y i n J . D a v i d S i n g e r , "The •Correlates o f Pfar' Project: I n t e r i m Report and R a t i o n a l e , " World P o l i t i c s , 24 ( J a n u a r y 1972) , 243-270. My d e b t t o t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t and t o J . David Singer, t h e p r o j e c t ' s d i r e c t o r , i s immense.  17 are to b e found in the satisfactory. of  literature,  S o m e are very complicated, a n d in questions  m e a s u r e m e n t a n d technique,  concepts such  "the technical 1 6  potential",  the  requirement that  it is with  far m o r e  " p o w e r capability"  or " w a r  There  the technical difficulties be  adds to  a m a l g a m of  is no  m a d e m o r e  of complicated techniques.  for example, My  substratum is  problems are monstrous.  monstrous with the use  and  income" a n d  problems of index n u m b e r construction are  as  reduces them.  "national  With  Jiave adequate theoretical substrata,  W h e n the theoretical  rudimentary,  analysis,  I value simplicity.  as "foreign trade",  " u n e m p l o y m e n t " which do  heroic."  I have not found t h e m  Factor  the problems rather than  p o w e r capabilities is sijnple  the results are reasonable. Chapter V continues with a discussion of the difficulties  of  measuring industrial growth a n d alliance activity and  finding the appropriate techniques of analysis. the injunction is: little!  Do  of  Throughout  not w a s t e information w h e nw e have so  Proper procedures of data analysis,  like proper  measurements, conserve informationThe  formal  statistical techniques such  regression a n d various forms of  as correlation,  tabular analysis c o m m o n in  empirical studies of international relations compress rather than  conserve information  a n d are  ill-suited to a n  Eugene J . Webb e t a l , U n o b t r u s i v e M e a s u r e s : Non-Reactive Research i n the S o c i a l Sciences (Chicago: Rand McNally,  1966), p . 8 .  18 examination  of  the  balance of  o f power p r o p o s i t i o n s , are  crude,  provides  and  i s  expanding  often  the  analysis.  superfluous,  of  second  step  is  —  is  the  one  our  us  to  evidence requires  seriously —  i n the  statistical  hindering  balance field,  analysis  rather  than  t o f u r t h e r t h e o r e t i c a l development-  propositions  The  The  most p r o p o s i t i o n s  p r e c i s i o n formal  opportunities  Testing  paucity  the  like  power t h e o r i e s .  to expose the  data.  first  step  in  rudimentary take, As  and  data  theory to  Tukey and  and  take Hilk  argue: E x p o s u r e , t h e e f f e c t i v e l a y i n g open o f t h e d a t a t o display the unanticipated, is t o us a major p o r t i o n of data a n a l y s i s Formal s t a t i s t i c s has g i v e n a l m o s t no g u i d a n c e t o e x p o s u r e ; i n d e e d i t i s not c l e a r how t h e i n f o r m a l i t y and flexibility appropriate to the e x p l o r a t o r y character of e x p o s u r e c a n be f i t t e d i n t o any o f t h e s t r u c t u r e s o f f o r m a l s t a t i s t i c s so f a r p r o p o s e d . 1 7  Graphical  displays  techniques of  are  simple,  data a n a l y s i s ,  A s i d e from t h e i r self-deception,  quirks  analyses.  Perhaps b u l k i n e s s  absence of  graphics  1 7  the  I  use  s p a c e on  of  any  balance o f  a  flexible  them  extensively.  oppprtunties  g r a p h i c a l d i s p l a y s h a v e the  f a r more  to the  and  and  demanding  relevant  p o w e r f u l and  provided  disadvantage  page than  power  the  of  statistical  a c c c o u n t s f o r the sort in  for  near  published  complete studies  propositions.  JH. T u k e y and M. B. Hilk, " D a t a A n a l y s i s and Statistics: Techniques and Approaches," in The Q u a n t i t a t i v e A n a l y s i s of S o c i a l Problems, ed. Edward T u f t e ( R e a d i n g , Mass.: A d d i s o n - W e s l e y , 1 9 7 0 ) , p . 3 7 1 .  R.  . . The n e x t t h r e e conclusions In  chapters  they permit,  contain  t h e data  analyses,  and t h e c o n j e c t u r e s  they  C h a p t e r VI I examine t h e p r o p o s i t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g  commitments  and  between g r o w t h Relative  e c o n o m i c g r o w t h r a t e s and rates  and a l l i a n c e s  power p o s i t i o n and g r e a t  matter o f Chapter V I I . both  a catalogue  Chapter  and a coda-  f i n d i n g s and  illustrate  e x p l a i n some  of the  during  the  suggestalliance  the interaction  and g r e a t  power war.  power war i s t h e s u b j e c t VIII, the conclusion,  T h e r e I summarize my  how some o f  diverse  b a l a n c e o f power s y s t e m  1 8  . 1.9  results  them c a n be of studies  t h e 1815-1945  is  diverse used t o of the  period.  1 8  In p a r t i c u l a r , t h e r e s u l t s o f two m a j o r s t u d i e s f r o m t h e C o r r e l a t e s o f War P r o j e c t — J . David S i n g e r and Melvin Small, " A l l i a n c e A g g r e g a t i o n and t h e O n s e t o f War, 1815-1945," i n Quantitative International Politics: I n s i g h t s and E v i d e n c e , ed- J . D a v i d S i n g e r (New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 ) , pp.247-286; and J . D a v i d S i n g e r , S t u a r t Bremer, and J o h n Stuckey, "Capability Distribution, U n c e r t a i n t y , and H a j o r - P o w e r War, 1820-1965," i n P e a c e , War, Numbers, e d . B r u c e M. E u s s e t t , ( B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage, 1972) , pp. 19-48.  Chapter I I GREAT POWER iAR, 1815-1945 The but  balance  "stability"  peace,  signifies last  supposed  i s nebulous.  to preserve  "Stability"  o r t o t h e a b s e n c e o f m a j o r war,  s t a t u s quo  and  o f power i s  ante that  bellum.  to prevent  two  t h e b a l a n c e o f power has  i n s t a n c e war  The  purpose  refer  instances  the  A war  1  i s an  of this  study  o r more p o l i t i c a l  communities-  violent  a r e wars,  and  b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r i s t s .  The  the i n t e r n a t i o n a l  g r e a t power f o u g h t  one in we  conflicts  h u n d r e d and the  purview  must  determine  1  thirty  each  y e a r s between  of the balance  classify  distinguishing  wars  of  between wars and  system i s to  between  power  other v i o l e n t  the k i n d s o f involvement  in  the  i s to describe during  1815-1945 and  great  two  a l l organized  o f power t h e o r i s t s .  the types  war  i n the  n o t a l l wars c o n c e r n t a s k a t hand  the  consequences,  organized violent c o n f l i c t However, n o t  and  state  examine e x p l a n a t i o n s o f t h e i n c i d e n c e , n o t t h e o f war.  to  return to  "failed",  i s a means t o m a i n t a i n  empire.  may  or the  In the f i r s t  stability;  the  which  are  To do  so,  war,  conflicts,  and  war.  Of c o u r s e t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f a war, l i k e t h e c o n s e g u e n c e s f o r the c h i c k e n o f c r o s s i n g t h e r o a d , may be p a r t o f t h e e x p l a n a t i o n of the i n c i d e n c e o f war and must be a l a r g e p a r t of the e x p l a n a t i o n i n a t h e o r y which presumes r a t i o n a l a c t i o n , a s d o e s t h e b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r y . -  20  -  21 "Bar",  like  "cancer",  covers a variety carcinoma—so purports to system; states the  of  i s a blanket  types—leukemia,  t o o d o e s "war."  explain  the c i v i l  and t h e many i m p e r i a l powers a t t h e  is  too c r u d e f o r my p u r p o s e s .  are  wars  2  o f theories  involved  in  which o c c u p i e d here  (even  "balance  states,  Whether a p p l i e d  but t h i s  t o a group o f  a b o u t t h e c a u s e s o f war, t h e  power" o b s c u r e s what may  As M o r g e n t h a u  rend  f o r t h e b a l a n c e o f power).  w i t h w a r s between r e c o g n i z e d  o r t o a group  the state  S t u d y o f War i d e n t i f i e s  power w a r s "  states  b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r y  or colonial  of  l a b e l "balance of  sarcoma,  periphery are i r r e l e v a n t  W r i g h t i n h i s monumental A  differences.  lymphoma,  wars w h i c h o c c a s i o n a l l y  t h o u g h t h e y may have c o n s e q u e n c e s  wars,  and a s c a n c e r  w a r f a r e between members o f  therefore,  great  The  term  writes,  be  significant  the implication  the balance of  power i s  that a l l t o be  avoided. We have s p o k e n t h u s f a r o f t h e i m b a l a n c e o f power as i f i t were one s i n g l e s y s t e m c o m p r e h e n d i n g a l l nations actively engaged i n international politics. C l o s e r o b s e r v a t i o n , however, reveals t h a t s u c h a s y s t e m i s f r e q u e n t l y composed of a number o f s u b s y s t e m s t h a t a r e i n t e r r e l a t e d w i t h each o t h e r , but that maintain within themselves a balance o f power of their own. The i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e d i f f e r e n t s y s t e m s i s g e n e r a l l y one o f s u b o r d i n a t i o n , i n t h e sense t h a t one d o m i n a t e s b e c a u s e o f t h e r e l a t i v e l y g r e a t weight accumulated i n i t s s c a l e s , while others are, a s i t were, attached to the s c a l e s o f t h a t dominant system. 3  2 W r i g h t , A S t u d y o f War, A p p e n d i x 3  2 0 , e s p . p.638-  Hans J . H o r g e n t h a u , P o l i t i c s Among N a t i o n s , A l f r e d A. Knopf, 1 9 6 7 ) , 4 t h ed.-, p.191.  (New  York:  ; 22  Obviously, Kingdom,  Prussia,  "dominant century, in  t h e European g r e a t  powers—France,  A u s t r i a and  system" a t  Russia—constitute  the beginning  of the  and some s t a t e s a d h e r e t o i t ,  a s the years pass.  the United the  nineteenth  and o t h e r s  a r e drawn  The problem i s t o l o c a t e t h e s e  mainly non-European,  states i n relation  to t h e g r e a t  other, power  competition. A s e r i e s of sociograms d e s c r i b i n g power a c t i v i t i e s one  to  s i n c e the Congress  separate the  uninvolved rigorous  and  involved  and  do n o t e x i s t .  space.  The  o f V i e n n a and  enabling  be a  Indeed,  r e m a r k a b l e , and p e r h a p s a s i g n t h a t maps o f p o l i t i c a l  of great  influential  n o n - i n f l u e n t i a l would  guides  t h e networks  few a t t e m p t s  t o map  boon. i t  something  s p a c e were a s s t a r k a s  from  the Such  w o u l d be i s amiss,  i f  maps o f p h y s i c a l  politically  effective  distances  d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t a r b i t r a r i n e s s c a n be r e d u c e d , b u t  it  be a v o i d e d -  cannot  4  However,  t o be a r b i t r a r y d o e s n o t  mean t o be c a p r i c i o u s .  4  On t h e c o n c e p t o f " e f f e c t i v e d i s t a n c e " , s e e K a r l W. D e u t s c h and W a l t e r I s a r d , "A Note on a G e n e r a l i z e d C o n c e p t of E f f e c t i v e Distance," Behavioral Science, 6 (October 1961), 308-311. A l t h o u g h many e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s o f t h e w o r l d were done d u r i n g t h e 1950's and 1 9 6 0 ' s , t h e two .most relevant t o the period s t u d i e d here are Michael DWallace, "Clusters of Nations i n t h e G l o b a l System, 1865-1964;Some Preliminary Evidence," International S t u d i e s Q u a r t e r l y , 19 (March 1975), 67-110; and S t u a r t Bremer, "A Sociometric Analysis of Diplomatic Bonds, 1817-1940," u n p u b l i s h e d p a p e r , A p r i l 1971.  For  the  p e r i o d 1815  members o f t h e predominantly and  1919,  to  s t a t e system i n t o European with  s t a t e s p l u s almost War  I,  distinguish  they  the d i s t i n c t i o n s  o f Wright's  "balance  a c e n t r a l group,  groups and  powers and  the  core,  European  c a n be  states-  balances,  between t y p e s o f s t a t e s , o f power war"  After  simply  ordinary  problem of l o c a t i n g  the  which i s  non-European s t a t e s .  t h e two  great  r e s o l v e the  divide  i s composed o f m i n o r  the  merge  between t h e  T h i s does not with  a l l of  Small  t h e g r e a t powers a t  a p e r i p h e r a l g r o u p which  World  S i n g e r and  six  5  but  strains  identified.  See  11:1.  Table  Table  The  numbers i n  the c e l l s  interstate  conflicts  fatalities  d u r i n g the  each  may  type  vary  II:1  about  are  involving  here  the  at  frequencies  1815-1945 p e r i o d a s do  those  1000  least  to  The  of  battle  c a u s a l paths  various  to  biological  cancers.  Table  Table  11:2  summarizes the  the g r e a t powers. declaration minimum o f  s  to 1000  S i n g e r and  11:2  about  here  incidences  A s t a t e does not  do  so:  participation  o f war  participate requires  armed p e r s o n n e l engaged i n  Small,  The  Wages o f j j a r , pp.  f o r each  of  i n war  iy a  having  active  22-23.  "a  combat  Table 11:1 Types o f 'Balance c f Power War , 1  1815-1945  Combatants  Combatants  Great Power  Central State  Peripheral State  Great Power  8  Central State Peripheral State  13  6  4  6  Total  25  12  Source: Singer and Small, The Wages Of War,  7 Table  23 b  Table  11:2  flumber of Each Type of I n t e r s t a t e War: Great Powers,  1816-1945  Opponent Great Power  Onited Kingdom France Prussia/Germany Eussia/OSSE Austria/A-H Italy Onited S t a t e s Japan  Source:  Great Power  Other Central State  3 5 4 5 3 4 2 4  1 2 2 5 2 2 0 2  Singer and S a a l l , The Wages o f  Peripheral State 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0  Bar, T a b l e  Total  5 10 6 10 6 6 2 6  4:2.  24  w i t h i n the deaths.  war  t h e a t e r " or s u f f e r i n g  While the  6  distinguish  number o f  by  variables* the  the  o f war  dichotomous and,  but  of  variabledefinite  other  of  accounting  point,  political  means,"  8  but  —are  distinct indicators one  Within  Clausewitz,  i t i s not  not  i n severity  a  occur.  the  "nothing an  continuous  i t occurs  arises  of  is  i n t e r c o u r s e with  discrete:  or i t does  for variation  7  the other.  i s , t o quote von  I t i s extremely end  than  deadly,  severity—the latter  power e x p e r i e n c e s ;  hence, cruder  a continuation  killed  battle  a threshold to  merely a l t e r n a t i v e  a great  p a r a d i g m , war  admixture  number  100  though s t i l l  i n c i d e n c e and  They a r e n o t  amount  Realist  total  least  deaths provides  wars f r o m l e s s s i g n i f i c a n t ,  q u a r r e l s between s t a t e s , measured  at  and  has  The  task  once  a  a  of  great  6  I b i d . , pp.36, 35. c r t i t e r i o n f o r war  Note t h a t 1000 b a t t l e f a t a l i t i e s and n o t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a war.  is a  7  The t o t a l numbers o f m i l i t a r y dead a r e r e c o r d e d by modern states as a matter of bureaucratic necessity, but bureaucratic necessity does not guarantee a c c u r a c y and bureaus o f t e n differ. Singer and S m a l l discuss the a c c u r a c y and r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e s e numbers on pp. 347-370 of t h e i r compendium o f m i s e r y The Wages Of War.  Note t h a t c i v i l i a n casualties often outnumber m i l i t a r y casualties, b u t t h e numbers a r e u n r e l i a b l e Some v e r y r e a s o n a b l e e s t i m a t e s c a n be f o u n d i n G i l E l l i o t ' s p o r t r a i t of " t h e n a t i o n o f the dead"—the results of t h e mass p o l i t i c a l violence o f our centuryHis book. The Twentieth C e n t u r y Book of t h e Dead (Harmondsworth: P e n g u i n , 1 9 7 3 ) , i s a f i n e work o f n e c r o l o g y . Necrology, as E l l i o t d e f i n e s i t , " s i m p l y means t h e naming o r l i s t i n g of t h e d e a d . " 8  K a r l von Clausewitz, On War, ed, Anatol ( H a r m o n d s w o r t h : P e n g u i n , 1 9 6 8 ) , p. 119.  Rapoport  r  • . ' 25 power e n g a g e s i n war the c o r r e l a t e s To a c c o u n t state, He  and  easily  unlikely it  of the  imagine  that  person s u f f e r s prone  states  in a  poses  two  s i n g l e theme o f t h e amount o f An  examination  Distribution, illustrates  9  1 0  a  and  o f war  and  the.  be  and few  expect  o f war  may  accident-prone  bones,  accident-  fatalities  than  i n c i d e n c e and  s i m p l y v a r i a t i o n s on  the  war. study of  Major  pitfalls  of f a i l i n g  would  frequency  explaining  recent  U n c e r t a i n t y , and  the p o s s i b l e  wars t o g e t h e r incidence  of  Deutsch  one  with "minor"  not  would  were t o o c c u r ,  j u s t as the broken  unit.  would e x p e c t  world  sense,  To r e p e a t , problems,  a state  i f a war  multipolar  more wars  1 0  be  i s the  becomes t h e  w o r l d one  In t h i s  9  war  F o r example,  more b r u i s e s t h a n  suffer  need not  of a n a l y s i s  i n which  and,  with i n t e n s i t y :  major f a t a l i t i e s . severity  i n war  bloody-  severe wars.  inversely  unit  a situation  in a bipolar  b u t s e v e r e w a r s and  vary  the  for severity,  to participate extremely  c o r r e l a t e s o f one  other.  to account  S i n g e r argue  the  for incidence,  can  w o u l d be  many l e s s  and  "Capability  Power War,  of lumping  to d i s t i n g u i s h  1820-1965"  a l l g r e a t power between  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f wars once  the they  K a r l W. D e u t s c h and J . D a v i d S i n g e r , " M u l t i p o l a r Power Systems and I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a b i l i t y , " World P o l i t i c s , 16 ( A p r i l 1 9 6 4 ) , 390-406. Evidence that t h i s i s the case f o r deadly q u a r r e l s i n general, a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l wars i n p a r t i c u l a r , c a n be found i n Bichardson, S t a t i s t i c s o f Deadly Q u a r r e l s , p153, and i n S i n g e r and S m a l l , " A l l i a n c e A g g r e g a t i o n and t h e Onset o f War," pp.256-257.  : •  do  occur.  Singer,  incompatible  propositions  distribution  1 1  The  distribution inequality  first of  power and  made war  the  and  uncertainty"  (defined  elites  other  war.  as  in  system").  or  In War,"  the  Singer,  dependent write,  stumbling i n t o  section of  greater  contended  further  reasoning  The  war  purport  towards  to account  variable.  "The  "is a reflection  foreign  stratifications behaviour  question  to  be  of  settled  inhibited initiation one.  for the  Note  that  incidence  Stuckey e m p i r i c a l l y p a r t i c u l a r index  of the  both  "decisional  t h e i r p a p e r s u b t i t l e d "The  Bremer an,d  equality  which  the  of  that  underlying  p r e d i c t i n g the  whether d e c i s i o n a l u n c e r t a i n t y  propositions  unequal  difficulty  and  of  an  second  discerning  and  the  power g r o u p  would i n c r e a s e  was  permitted  that  The  The  "the  system  members o f t h a t  great  movements  parity  experience  c l u s t e r s i n the  the  movements t o w a r d s  chances of that  capabilities  both  of  war-  Incidence define  used,"  m a g n i t u d e o f war  of  of  the  they  underway,  as  measured i n n a t i o n - m o n t h s o f . . . m a j o r i n t e r s t a t e war"I  The  substitution  the  incidence  of  of  theoretically.  1 1  a  war  measure o f is  not,  the  and  Furthermore, the  magnitude o f cannot,  6  two  the c o n s e q u e n c e s o f  was  less likely.  was  and  concerning  proposition  propositions  policy  Stuckey i n v e s t i g a t e d  d i s t r i b u t i o n within  approximate p a r i t y decreased  and  of m i l i t a r y - i n d u s t r i a l  changes i n t h a t states-  Bremer  2  be  i n c l u s i o n of  war  for  justified a l l interstate  Singer, Bremer and Stuckey, "Capability Distribution U n c e r t a i n t y , and M a j o r Power War," pp.19-48-  wars " i n  which a t  least  p a r t i c i p a n t " i s not, is  can  be  gleaned  most o f t h e great  are  t r e a t e d as  an e n t i t y ,  Turkish  ill-fated  fleet  between g r e a t eight  such  should  1 2  not  1815  11:1  pitted  and  11:2,  a great  power  If the  as  Singer,  they  a r e by  active  theoretically,  m i n o r powers.  at  a coalition, of great  N a v a r i n o Bay,  limited powers,  or  great  and  t o remain  intermingled  with  the  destroyed his  theoretical  explanations  during the  and  little  I I I began  The  faithful  powers  Bremer  powers  Napoleon  Mexico.  to competing  wars w h i c h o c c u r r e d be  justified  f i g u r e s i n Tables  i m p e r i a l adventures i n  statements are  an  theoretical rationale offered provides  h e l p i n e x p l a i n i n g why the  power was  be  wars s i n c e  powers) a g a i n s t  the  major  cannot  from the  interstate  (or  Stuckey,  and  one  of  wars  t o them,  1815-1965  twenty-one  the  period  other  Singer, Bremer and S t u c k e y a r e aware o f some p r o b l e m s o f t h e i r c r i t e r i o n f o r i n c l u d i n g g r e a t power w a r s . They w r i t e i n a f o o t n o t e (p.41) : Parenthetically, f o r t h o s e who suspect t h a t the d e f i n i t i o n o f war used h e r e may be too broad i n t h a t i t embraces a l l i n t e r - s t a t e war i n v o l v i n g m a j o r powers, we m e n t i o n a r e l e v a n t f i n d i n g . That is, i f we l o o k o n l y a t t h o s e e i g h t wars i n w h i c h t h e r e i s a major power on e a c h s i d e , we f i n d t h a t t h e r e was a decline i n CON (concentration of c a p a b i l i t i e s ) d u r i n g the h a l f decade p r e c e d i n g a l l b u t one o f t h o s e w a r s . Since these are almost e q u a l l y d i v i d e d between t h e c e n t u r i e s , they lend some s u p p o r t to the peace through preponderance doctrine.  I f i n d t h i s footnote extremely puzzling. F o r one t h i n g , i t i m p l i e s a c o n t r a d i c t i o n w i t h the f i n d i n g s r e p o r t e d i n the body o f t h e i r p a p e r . Moreover, they conclude t h a t the " p a r i t y and f l u i d i t y " model f i t s t h e 19th c e n t u r y and t h e " p r e p o n d e r a n c e and s t a b i l i t y " model f i t s the 20th century, but t h e more r e l e v a n t a n a l y s i s noted " p a r e n t h e t i c a l l y "  28 interstate Eight  w a r s between  elaborate purpose the  wars i n w h i c h  statistical  participated-  t o o f e w a number f o r  manipulations-  I  variation reguired  techniques the  statistical  variation  authors  increased,  by  the fault  and t h e  Therefore,  p r o v i d e s a n example  domination**  3  The p r o b l e m  t h a t i s more i m p o r t a n t  state rather  t h a n a group  multiple  line  empirical tests  As  the  between t h e widened.  of t e c h n i q u e s  o f ' t o o few wars' f o r s t a t i s t i c a l  a n a l y s i s i s a s u b s t a n t i v e problem, one  the  employed-  t h e o r e t i c a l arguments study  suspect that the  d u r a t i o n f o r i n c i d e n c e was t c c r e a t e  regression  the  1 2  g r e a t powers i s  of substituting  statistical  a g r e a t power  n o t a t e c h n i c a l o n e and  where t h e u n i t o f a n a l y s i s i s t h e of states-  f a v o u r s t h e l a t t e r f o r t h e whole t i m e p e r i o d . F o r another thing, the footnoted finding i s mistaken. When t h e bivariate correlations (the p o i n t biserial i s the appropriate s t a t i s t i c ) a r e computed f o r CON, the other i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a n d t h e i n c i d e n c e o f war among t h e g r e a t powers, the o r i g i n a l f i n d i n g s a r e r e a f f i r m e d without m a n g l i n g t h e theory-. 1  3  T h e word " d o m i n a t i o n " i s u s e d with care"Tyranny o f t e c h n i q u e " i s a l l i t e r a t i v e and more common, but the phrase o b s c u r e s the problem. T y r a n n y i s o b v i o u s , and every reasonable person i s a g a i n s t tyranny; whereas, "domination, compared t o a l l o t h e r modes o f o p p r e s s i o n , i s unique i n t h a t t h e dominated remain o b l i v i o u s o f t h e i r domination." The w o r l d o f t h e d o m i n a t e d i sa falsified reality t h a t h a s been g r a n t e d t h e s e m b l a n c e o f t h e n a t u r a l which i n t u r n g r a n t s i t a n a u r a o f r a t i o n a l i t y and legitimacy;.  ( A l k i s Kontos, "Domination: Metaphor and P o l i t i c a l R e a l i t y " i n Domination ed. A l k i s Kontos (Toronto: University of T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1975) , pp.218-219. See C h a p t e r 4, b e l o w , f o r  29 I f the  great  becomes an  power g r o u p i s  attribute  unit of  the  g r o u p and  between s t a t e s :  therefore,  i t i s not  the  anonymity  group p r o v i d e s .  the  i n d i v i d u a l great  concerned, initiator validity is  the  as or  of  in  the  combatants are  and  t h i s study,  of  opposite,  the  between p o s i t  those i n the  s t a t e s , not that  must by  to  further  does a t t a c k  B,  a weaker s t a t e ,  t h i s argument  that  —  be  expansion  and  both  **  J e a n L a p o n c e , "Of Gods, D e v i l s , V a r i a b l e s , " Canadian J o u r n a l of (June 1974) , 203.  This  careful  "Remember be  not  are  that  zero  including  sum."  some o f  explanations war-  A,  of For  unless  neighbours,  numerous  war  embracing i t s  i t s dominance.  an  the  inappropriate  dominant s t a t e  i t s weaker  the to  mere i n v o l v e m e n t i n  the  are  "defenders."  war,  i n order  of  states  into  hand,  we  threat  need n o t  power s c h o o l ,  a c o a l i t i o n of  i n i t i a t e war  game  interstate  of  i t i s argued  c h e c k e d by  (in fact)  of  of  which identify  asymmetry.  opposite the  balance  bellicosity  example,  symmetry  assumption of and  to  pry  other  theoretically  However, we  assumption of  Hany e x p l a n a t i o n s  the  often  the  with  war  relationship  I t would i m p l y  " a g g r e s s o r s " or  symmetry i s  the  on  poses a p l a u s i b l e  empirically inaccurate-  to replace  failure  r e l a t i o n s h i p between  equally  a  necessary to  unit  r e s u l t s obtained.  analysis,  not  If,  power i s t h e  "aggressor"  a symmetrical  assumption  of  the  will  Whether A  i s something  to  be  illustrations.  Monsters, Bolitical  and One-Eyed Science, 7  30 examined. and  I f A d o e s s o , t h e war  the  explanation  straightforward--it heeded,  necessarily  evidence  if all  be  participation  i s defending i t s e l f -  not always  always  o f B's  i s decidedly  point  i s that  t h e y were s y m m e t r i c a p p r e c i a t e the  "Treating  c a n be  can  of adulteratinq  how  much h o r s e  meat he  one  h o r s e , one  rabbit'-"  compared  to  different  rabbit reliably  t h e answers  they  be  and  validly  1945  to the  meat.  by  'No  Hhen  of  asked  more t h a n  distinguishing  offered,  The  50%:,  of such  e q u i v a l e n t s of  not prove which  a  could  be,  helpful. had  the j u s t i f i c a t i o n s  p o i n t s out the  when between  even i f they  the states  according to  validity  He  i s t h e case  is trivial  i n war-  g i v e would  war  threat  rabbit  q u e s t i o n e d , and  after classifying  national leaders  There  h o r s e meat  Goldmann, since  misleading-  as  1 3  from  might  conflicts  be p e r p e t r a t e d  a d d e d , he r e p l i e d ,  k i n d s of involvement  the butcher cannot  i s not s h o u l d nxat  asymmetric  appropriate d e f i n i t i o n s of equality-  Separating  warfare  disastrously  fraud that  quite  elementary, i f  a g a i n s t t h e a r g u m e n t and  t a k e n as such-  the butcher accused  is  The  B's  asymmetrical  most  engaged i n which plausible  procedure.  After a l l , j u s t i f i c a t i o n s are d e t e r m i n e d by t h e desire to make an a c t i o n a p p e a r compatible with e x i s t i n g norms; t h e y may t e l l us l i t t l e about other types of motives and t h e y are o b v i o u s l y u n r e l i a b l e as sources o f i n f o r m a t i o n about the situation. 1 6  1  5  A n a t o l Rapoport, " V a r i o u s C o n c e p t i o n s of Peace Peace R e s e a r c h S o c i e t y ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l ) P a p e r s , 96-  Research," 19 (1972) ,  31 Goldmann s  concern i s  1  misleading  tests  disequilibrium  hypothesis i n Galtung's  aggression-  He  1 7  inappropriate between r a n k war-  illustrates  symmetric  data  disequilibrium,  that  the  of the  structural use  i n f l a t e s the  of  rank theory of the  relationship  or status i n c o n s i s t e n c y ,  A s s e s s i n g h i s "experiment  i n asymmetry",  and  Goldmann  writes: none o f t h e f o u r ways o f c r e a t i n g asymmetry t h a t have been e x p e r i m e n t e d w i t h here i s s a t i s f a c t o r y . The p o i n t i s , however, t h a t t h e s y m m e t r i c a p p r o a c h i s not very s a t i s f a c t o r y eitherI n d e e d , whereas the v a l i d i t y o f the f o u r asymmetric approaches can be a r g u e d f o r and a g a i n s t , the symmetric a p p r o a c h i s o b v i o u s l y i n v a l i d t o most h y p o t h e s e s c o n s i d e r e d here. 1 8  Goldman ends  h i s project  dejectedly.  It is difficult to distinguish between " a g g r e s s i o n " and " d e f e n s e " i n a way t h a t i s b o t h v a l i d and reliableTherefore, asymmetric theories about warfare---cannot be tested quantitativelyMuch c a n be s a i d i n f a v o u r of that d e f e a t i s t c o n c l u s i o n . 1 9  And  that i s t r u l y a d e f e a t i s t  accepted,  a l linquiry,  t h e o r i e s would upon a  quantitative  have to cease-  continuum  where  conclusion  because,  or not,  Reliability  they p u l l  against  into and one  i f i t were asymmetric  validity l i e another.  1  6  K j e l l Goldmann, "Some C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f S t a t e s and I n t e r s t a t e H a r f a r e r A n E x p e r i m e n t i n Asymmetry," in his I n t e r n a t i o n a l Norms and Kar Between S t a t e s : T h r e e S t u d i e s in International Politics (Stockholm: L a r o m e d e l s f o r e l a g e n , 1971) , p,.277.  1  7  Johan G a l t u n g , J o u r n a l o f Peace  1 8  Goldmann,  1 9  Ibid.,  "An  p.278.  "A S t r u c t u r a l T h e o r y of Aggression," R e s e a r c h , No.2, ( 1 9 6 4 ) , 95-119.  E x p e r i m e n t i n Asymmetry," pp. 277-278.  Instead;oiVtrying to  forego the  criterion and  tern  literally  o r an a l l - d u t y  reliable  war-  t o maximize b o t h , Utopian checklist  f o ridentifying  Perhaps the f i r s t  i t would search  be p r e f e r a b l e  for a  w h i c h would  be b o t h  behavior-"  t h i n g t o do i s t o d i s p e n s e  Our  task i s  not  superficial  one o f naming t h e c a u s e  can  say. i s  t h a t one n a t i o n i n i t i a t e d  the  war, b u t t h a t i s a d e s c r i p t i o n ,  beginning Singer identify the f i r s t  o f a war-" and S m a l l ,  2  i n their  attack i n strength 2 1  with the  of "active  the v u l g a r  and  o f e a c h waror  started  " A l l we o r opened  not e x p l a n a t i o n of the  0  compendium The Wages o f War,  the i n i t i a t o r s — t h o s e  territories"  valid  various types o f involvement i n  " a g g r e s s o r " a n d , f o l l o w i n g Goldmann, t o t a l k  conflict  single  s t a t e s "whose b a t t a l i o n s on t h e i r o p p o n e n t s '  — o f a l l b u t one o f t h e g r e a t  power  made  armies or wars-  T a b l e 11:3  As t h e f i g u r e s  i n Table  11:3 i n d i c a t e ,  g r e a t power  war r e f l e c t s  t h e asymmetry  between t h e  combatants-  Only  roared: Turkey  Sardinia  i n her f i r s t  i n t h e Crimean  two  mice appear  *  S i n g e r and S m a l l , 368-370.  t o have  war w i t h A u s t r i a i n 1849 and  state that their  <> G e o f f r e y B l a i n e y , The C a u s e s o f War, P r e s s , 1 9 7 3 ) , pp.173-174.  2  i n capabilities  War, o n e o f h e r many w a r s w i t h  S i n g e r and S m a l l c a r e f u l l y  2  t h e asymmetry o f  Russia.  identification  (New Y o r k :  The Wages o f War, T a b l e 14:7,  The  Free  pp.366,  Initiators Great  In G r e a t Power  Foyer I n t e r s t a t e  numbers i n c l u d e  Source: 14:7.  Navarino  Dumber o f Times G r e a t Power Initiated  4 4 5 2 2 2 2  Bay  a  j a r , 1816-1945.  Number o f Wars Against H e n - G r e a t Power  France Italy Eussia/DSSE Japan Austria Prussia O n i t e d Kingdom  The  32  11:3  Table  4 4 4 2 1 2 •2  (1827).  S i n g e r and S m a l l , The Wages Of War,  Tables  4:2 and  33 is  "as  crude  a s i t i s t e n t a t i v e " and  they are  not  t r y i n g to reach a f i r m data-based c o n c l u s i o n as to which p a r t i c i p a n t " c a u s e d " the war w h e t h e r by action, threat or other p r o v o c a t i o n . 2 2  The  "particularly  they  ambiguous c a s e s " o f  l i s t — N a v a r i n o Bay  Italian  Independence  (1827), (1859),  (1962)—suggest that the more " a c t i v e " and  Small's  party.  Turkey,  which  imposed  by  War,  may  and  o t h e r two  attempted  Singer  cases.  China  can  the  disputed border in  be  imperial,  involvement."  He  defines  a state "in  2  2  Ibid.,  p.366.  2  3  Singer  and  S m a l l , The  of  be  the  Singer's  a blockade  of her  Kingdom and  fleet  Russia,  initiator  according to  p o i n t out  that  their  actions  what became t h e be  by  Crimean  made i n  be s e e n a s r e s p o n d i n g  the  with  provocations,  responding  to Indian  activities  between  seeks  out  not  Sardinian  examines each and  left  War  t o the  his dissertation  g r e a t power war,  engagement by  s e e n as  need  o f argument c o u l d  actions  area  was  Turkey i n t o  A u s t r i a can  and  and  Small  t h a t t h e same s c r t  large scale military  Ray,  named t h e  have provoked  (1853-1856),  Sino-Indian  initiator  which  or d e f e a t t a b u l a t i o n s because  Onited  and  Crimean  the  Bay  to break  the  would be  definition. Russia  military  Navarino  France,  misleadingly  the and  initiation/victory  g r e a t power war  to  on  the  status  great  states.  power war, the  war  pp.  and  interstate "activist  involvement  international  Wages o f War,  2 3  inconsistency  identify  activist an  two  in  war  which  366-367.  as arises  33 a Table 1 1 : 3 Initiators  In Great Power I n t e r s t a t e War, 1816-1945.  Great Power  France Italy Bussia/DSSB Japan Austria Prussia United Kingdom  number o f Wars Against Non-Great Power 4 4 5 2 2 2 2  The numbers i n c l u d e Navarino Bay Source: 14:7.  Number o f Times Great Power Initiated 4 4 4 2 1 2 2  (1827).  Singer and S m a l l , The Wages Of War,  T a b l e s 4:2 and  34 out  of a c o n f l i c t  established  i n which  political  arrangements,"  arrangements a r e those The  t h a t s t a t e advocated  i n existence  rescued The  debatable  political  than  a  year-  2 4  but t h e debate,  f r o m t h e a b s t r a c t and u n i v e r s a l , c a n now be awarded-  military  activists Table  Established f o r more  a s y m m e t r i e s made a r e c e r t a i n l y  a change i n  initiators  are,  and t h e  more b r o a d l y  f a r more o f t e n t h a n n o t ,  I I : 4 describes  t h e same-  the incidence  power wars a n d t h e t y p e s  defined  and s e v e r i t y o f g r e a t  of involvement of each great Table  power-  11:4 0  From an h u m a n i t a r i a n far is  t o o long  perspective,  b u t , from  much t o o s h o r t .  natural scientists  are confronted  are d i f f i c u l t  the causal of  to predict  such n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r s  the  f o l l o w i n g comments on c u r r e n t e a r t h q u a k e  *  Some  problem. because  paths are not understood  opportunities f o rc l a r i f y i n q  2  war-  an analogous  the  apply  0  and t h e p a u c i t y  with  11:4 i s  analyst,i t  P e a c e i s f a r more common t h a n  are infrequent:  clearly  i n Table  the perspective o f a data  E a r t h q u a k e s , f o r example, they  the l i s t  the causal  paths.  restricts Consider  research.  They  w i t h e q u a l f o r c e t o t h e s t u d y o f man-made d i s a s t e r s . I r o n i c a l l y , i t i s t h e l a c k o f even m o d e r a t e l y s i z e d earthquakes i n California that i s proving most f r u s t r a t i n g t o A m e r i c a n r e s e a r c h e r s . Without a long period of observation, i n c l u d i n g a number of m o d e r a t e o r l a r g e earthquakes, i t w o u l d be i m p o s s i b l e t o s o r t out t h e v a r i o u s g e o p h y s i c a l  James Lee Ray, " S t a t u s I n c o n s i s t e n c y and War I n v o l v e m e n t Among E u r o p e a n S t a t e s , 1816-1970," D i s s . University of M i c h i g a n 1974, pp.48, 44-49-  34 a  Table 11:4 g r e a t Power I n t e r s t a t e War, .18 16-1945: D u r a t i o n . S e v e r i t y and Type of P a r t i c i p a t i o n  Har Franco-Spanish 1823  Duration (Months) 7.3  Battle  Deaths  1 000  Participants (ACTIVIST) France Spain  Navarino Eay 1827  .1  3 180  ONITED KINGDOM FRANCE BOSSIA Turkey  Russo-Turkish 1828  16.7  130 000  RUSSIA Turkey  tustror-Sardinian 1848  4.7  9 000  Austria Sardinia  Schleswig-Holstein 1848  8.1  6 000  PRUSSIA Denmark  Boman Republic 1849  1.8  2 200  France Austria Two S i c i l i e s Papal  Crimean 1853,1854  28.3  264 200  States  United Kingdom France Sardinia Turkey RUSSIA  Anglo-Persian* 1856  4.6  2 000  United Kingdom IRAN  Italian Unification 1859  2.5  22 500  SARDINIA FRANCE Austria  34 b Franco-Mexican 1862  57.7  20 000  FRANCE Mexico  Schleswig-Holstein 1864  3.6  Seven Weeks 1866  1.4  4 500  PRUSSIA Denmark  36 100  PROSSIA ITALY Austria Hanover Bavaria Baden Saxony Wuertemberg Hesse-Electoral Hesse-Grand Ducal MecklenburgSchuerin  Franco-Prussian 1870  7.3  Busso-Turkish 1877  8.8  187 500  France PEOSSIA Bavaria Baden Weurtemberg  285 000  BOSSIA Turkey  Sino-French 1884  11.8  Russo-Japanese 1904  19.3  Italo-Turkish 1911  12.7  12 100  FRANCE China  130 000  JAPAN Russia  20 000  ITALY Turkey  34 c  World War I 1914  51.5  9 000 000  Onited Kingdom France Belgium Bussia Portugal United S t a t e s Italy Serbia Greece Rumania JAPAN GERMANY AUSTRIA-HUNGARY BULGARIA TURKEY  Hanchurian 1931 Italo-Ethiopian 1935  16.6  JAPAN China  7.2  20 000  ITALY Ethiopia  Sino-Japanese 1937  53. 1  Busso-Japanese 1939  1.2  World War I I  60 000  1 000 000  JAPAN China  19 000  USSR/Bussia Japan  71.5  15 000 000  GERMANY HUNGABY ITALY Bulgaria Rumania Finland JAPAN United  Kingdom  France Russia Poland Belgium Canada United S t a t e s Brazil Holland Yugoslavia Greece Bulgaria Italy  34  Norway Ethiopia South A f r i c a China Mongolia New Zealand Australia Busso-Finnish 1939  3.4  90 000  OSSB Finland  Sources: Singer and S m a l l , The Hases o f J a r , Table 4:2 and James Lee Bay, "Status I n c o n s i s t e n c y And War Involvement Among European S t a t e s , 1816-1970," D i s s . Michigan, 1S74, Appendix A.  d  35 phenomena t h a t may f o r e t e l l a damaging earthquake from those t h a t are u n r e l a t e d But as l o n g as u n d e r l y i n g earthquake mechanisms remain poorly understood, the only a l t e r n a t i v e appears t o be to observe as many l i k e l y p r e c u r s o r y phenomena as p o s s i b l e and t r y t o deduce those that can be used to p r e d i c t the time, l o c a t i o n , and s i z e of major e a r t h q u a k e s . 25  Peace and war —  earthquakes  are t o be e x p l a i n e d .  and the absence o f earthquakes  2 6  Having d e s c r i b e d the dependent are:  variable,  t h e next t a s k s  1) t o draw out p u t a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s and p r e c u r s o r s o f  g r e a t power propositions;  war;  2)  to  f o r m u l a t e them  into testable  and 3) to examine the the e x i s t i n g e v i d e n c e .  Once those t a s k s a r e completed, I can turn to ways and means to examine the p r o p o s i t i o n s p r o p e r l y .  2 5  R i c h a r d A. Kerr, "Earthquakes: P r e d i c t i o n s P r o v i n g E l u s i v e , " S c i e n c e , Vol.200, No-4340 (28 A p r i l 1978), 419.  2 6  As Geoffrey B l a i n e y r i g h t l y s t r e s s e s , i t i s "peace that passeth u n d e r s t a n d i n g " i n many would be e x p l a n a t i o n s of war* "The Peace That Passeth Understanding" i s the t i t l e of the f i r s t c h a p t e r o f h i s sometimes i r r i t a t i n g , b/ut never d u l l , book The Causes Of War.  LEAF 36 OMITTED  Chapter I I I THE  3.1  PRELIMINARIES The  •balance  •Realist' The  BALANCE OF POWER  o r 'power p o l i t i e s '  identifying  following  o f power' i s  marks o f  a s s u m p t i o n s and  t h e most p r o m i n e n t  of the  e x p l a n a t i o n s o f war a n d p e a c e .  these  explanations  i n c l u d e the  definitions.  1.  The s t a t e i s t h e s o v e r e i g n  entity.  2.  The s t a t e i s a u n i t a r y a c t o r .  3.  Rational decision-making  4.  T h e g o a l i s t o m a x i m i z e power.  5.  C o n f l i c t s between s t a t e s , power, a r e u n a v o i d a b l e .  6..  War i s a r a t i o n a l i n s t r u m e n t o f p o l i c y . R a t h e r than a disease or a d i s a s t e r , war i s "a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l commerce, a c a r r y i n g o u t o f t h e same by o t h e r means"  prevails.  each  bent  upon  maximizing  1  7.  Peaceful international relations, t o r e v e r s e von Clausewitz's definition, are a continuation of v i o l e n t commerce, a c a r r y i n g o u t o f t h e same w i t h o t h e r means. 2  1  von C l a u s e w i t z ,  On War, p.119.  2  T h i s f o r m u l a t i o n i s from Anatol Rapoport's i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e P e n g u i n e d i t i o n o f On War, p.22- Rapoport compares t h e C l a u s e w i t z e a n p h i l o s o p h y o f war, t h e L e n i n i s t view, the p h i l o s o p h y o f modern p e a c e r e s e a r c h , and t h e t h i n k i n g o f contemporary n u c l e a r s t r a t e g i s t s who c l a i m t o be t h e P r u s s i a n ' s progeny. See a l s o W.B. G a l l i e , P h i l o s o p h e r s o f P e a c e and War ( C a m b r i d g e : A t t h e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1978), chp-3,. -  37 -  38  Before  d e s c r i b i n g and I  theory,  will  comment b r i e f l y  incompatible  with  a  of  criterion  evaluating the  these  upon  assumptions  e v a l u a t i o n which  balance  of  power  some v e r s i o n s w h i c h and  is  definitions both  and  common  are upon  and  incorrect. For the  'Realists',  assumption  That and  most  t h a t man  assumption  need  i n t e r s t a t e war.  rather  "with  goal i s  understand it  3  ought t o  innately aggressive be  their  some n o r m a t i v e - those  Realist  who  accepted  in  order  'power p o l i t i e s '  approach i s and  selfish.  t o examine,  explanations  glue  to bind  of  advocate  policies  'Realists'  against  which  against  work  t h e f o r c e s i n h e r e n t i n human n a t u r e . " a political  international be,  of the  I t c o n t r i b u t e s n o t h i n g t o them, a l t h o u g h i t  'Idealists' than  is  not  perhaps embrace,  does p r o v i d e  the cornerstone  "theory  politics  i n view o f i t s  as  which t r i e s  i t actually  intrinsic  3  The  to  is,  and  nature".  The  4  as  The R e a l i s t s t e n d t o assume t h a t men a r e s t a t e s w r i t s m a l l w h i l e they p r e t e n d t o l e a p the d i s t a n c e from the n a t u r e of man t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s t a t e s y s t e m . Idealists, and others, a r e c o r r e c t t o r e j e c t such c l a i m s . R e a l i s t s are correct to r e j e c t the claim of I d e a l i s t s that man i s by n a t u r e c o - o p e r a t i v e and, therefore, war i s u n n a t u r a l . Both s i d e s a r e c o r r e c t f o r t h e wrong r e a s o n s . Assuming man t o be a s e l f i s h , aggressive i n d i v i d u a l helps l i t t l e when t r y i n g t o e x p l a i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n w a r f a r e and o t h e r forms o f o r g a n i z e d d e s t r u c t i o n . The o p p o s i t e a s s u m p t i o n i s f a r more c o m p e l l i n g . See S t a n l e y M i l g r a m , O b e d i e n c e To A u t h o r i t y : An E x p e r i m e n t a l View (New Y o r k : Harper & Row, 1974).  For a c o n c i s e e x p o s i t i o n of the l o g i c of interstate r e l a t i o n s , see Kenneth Waltz, Han, The S t a t e , And War ( C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y Press:New Y o r k , 1 9 6 4 ) , p p . 1 5 9 - 1 8 6 . 4 Morgenthau, P o l i t i c s  Among N a t i o n s ,  p^14  }  39 distinction  between a p o s i t i v e  distinction  o f t e n hard  to R e a l i s t s ,  i s worth  Organski, theory, entire  an  t o make  ardent  and  i n other  the  rest  the  it  do  words, one  f o r the  so.  For  among a p i l e balance  of  critic  of  this  moderate,  i s yet  of c o n t r a d i c t i o n s . power t h e o r i s t s  of  be and  power of  the  a state wise".  a state in their British  whom  he  A.J.P.  to  that  6  the  documents  Taylor,  explanations.  attacked  those  l e a d e r s who  restrain  t h e m s e l v e s f o r t h e good o f E u r o p e ,  w i s e and  less  posit  cites,  professed u n l i k e the  moderate c o n t i n e n t a l s t a t e s m e n .  two  the  I think they  pamphleteer Organski  his country's  5  another c o n t r a d i c t i o n  However, n e i t h e r o f  from  aberrant  1836  anathema  moreover, i t i s e s s e n t i a l  namely M o r g e n t h a u and  in  a  s t a t e i s supposed t o a c t c o n t r a r y  Organski  of  an  i s the keystone  b a l a n c e r i s supposed t o  good o f a l l ;  Cobden, t h e  and  the balance  balancer  theory,  applaud  a n o r m a t i v e one,  i n practice  " r e s e r v e d , s e l f - r e s t r a i n e d , humane, Or,  and  maintaining.  w r i t e s t h a t "the theory"  theory  Cobden  so would who to less wrote  that  England has, for nearly a century, h e l d the European s c a l e s not with the b l i n d n e s s of the goddess o f j u s t i c e h e r s e l f , o r w i t h a view t o the e g u i l i b r i u m of opposite i n t e r e s t s , but with a c y c l o p e a n e y e t o h e r own a g g r a n d i z e m e n t . 7  5  A. F. Knopf,  K. O r g a n s k i , World P o l i t i c s 1968), pp.279-287-  (New  York: A l f r e d  A.  6  Morgenthau's d i s c u s s i o n of the "balancer" i s on pp. 187-190 o f P o l i t i c s Among N a t i o n s and T a y l o r ' s b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r y c a n be f o u n d i n h i s The S t r u g g l e F o r Mastery; In Europe. 1848-1918 (London: Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1954) .  no The  b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r y does  order to explain states,  each  vices,  publick  of  another,  what i s Like balance the  o f which pursues benefits"  promised.  writes  "the  a subtitle  Organski  "Private from  a work  pamphleteer)  the r e a l i t y  that  "not  are  their  own  to  t o t o p p l e the or accuracy  i t sits.  a l l  basic e r r o r s of  become a p p a r e n t "  attempts  upon w h i c h  upon m a x i m i z i n g  observations  of sovereign  advantage.  British  d i g g i n g away  assumptions he  group  8  o f power by  primarily  i t s own  (to borrow  many o t h e r c r i t i c s ,  accurately  require a balancer i n  among a  f a r more n e t t l e s o m e ,  realist  theory  the r e l a t i o n s  not  Quite  nations are  power"  9  and  the balance  of  bent from  of  his  power  him-  To b e g i n w i t h , i t i s b a s e d upon two e r r o n e o u s assumptions: 1) that nations are fundamentally static units whose power i s not changed from w i t h i n and 2) t h a t n a t i o n s have no permanent t i e s to each o t h e r but move a b o u t f r e e l y , motivated p r i m a r i l y by c o n s i d e r a t i o n s o f power. But we have seen t h a t these assumptions are not c o r r e c t , and s i n c e t h e a s s u m p t i o n s o f t h e t h e o r y a r e wrong, t h e  7  R i c h a r d Cobden, The P o l i t i c a l W r i t i n g o f R i c h a r d Cobden, 4th ed. (1903; r p t . New Y o r k ! Kraus7~1969)7 p.. 201. Organski c l o s e s h i s c r i t i q u e with the f o l l o w i n g v i t r o l i c p a s s a g e f r o m Cobden's work: t h e b a l a n c e o f power i s a chimera! I t i s not a fallacy, a mistake, an imposture, i t i s an undecided, indescribable, incomprehensible nothing; mere w o r d s , c o n v e y i n g t o t h e mind n o t i d e a s , but sounds.-.(197-198) .  T h i s need not 8  be  so,  B e r n a r d M a n d e v i l l e , The T a b l e o f t h e Bees, ed. H a r t h (Harmondsworth: P e n g u i n B o o k s , 1970).  9 O r g a n s k i , World  Politics,  p.298.  Phillip  41 conclusions As two  with  the  and  or at  Taylor  i s not  and  a part of a part  of  internally, military  i s l a y i n g the  transition"  which  differential  rates  discuss  theory  that  of  the  (say)  the  industrial  of  of of  by  means o f In  influence  his  that  power  Morgenthau  above.  assumptions are  generated industrial  critique, of  "power  of r a p i d  development.  point  these  1 1  f o r his theory  definitions outlined  1 0  theories  below b e c a u s e i t does  the  first  balance  spending.  a s s u m p t i o n s and here i s  the  a s t a t e ' s power be  groundwork  stresses  the  upon.  reguirement that not  1 0  balancer,  w h i c h O r g a n s k i draws  growth o r i n c r e a s e d Organski  of the  l e a s t not  T h e r e i s no externally  also in e r r o r .  assumption  assumptions  theory,  are  I  and will  f i t within The  the  important  theoretical  IJ2i£« / pp. 288,292,. Compare w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g c r i t i c i s m of "the balance o f power theory made by Georg S c h w a r z e n b e r g e r i n h i s Power P o l j . t i . c s : A Study, o f World S o c i e t y (New Y o r k : P r a e g e r , 1 9 6 4 ) . The b a l a n c e o f power i s a p h y s i c a l and m e c h a n i c a l idea. I t i s b a s e d on t h e q u e s t i o n a b l e assumption t h a t t h e f r i e n d - e n e m y r e l a t i o n s between S t a t e s a r e immutable, and t h a t o t h e r S t a t e s do not change o v e r f r o m one s i d e t o t h e o t h e r (174)..  1 1  T h e r e i s some a m b i g u i t y i n t h e c a s e o f A. J$P. Taylor. Taylor prefaces his The S t r u g g l e F o r M a s t e r £ i n Europe with a guantitative description of the industrial, military and d e m o g r a p h i c might that defined the p r o t a g o n i s t s and w r i t e s i n the b i b l i o g r a p h i c a l essay at t h e end o f t h e book t h a t " p o l i c y s p r i n g s f r o m deep s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c s o u r c e s ; i t i s not c r u d e l y manufactured i n f o r e i g n o f f i c e s " (215). However, i n the t e x t i n between, the reader i s plunged i n t o the elaborate diplomatic shuffle. E.B. Segal, r e f e r r i n g to T a y l o r ' s once c o n t r o v e r s i a l book on t h e o r i g i n s o f W o r l d War I I , sums up t h e d i f f i c u l t y . . E.B. Segal, "A.J.P. T a y l o r and H i s t o r y " , i n Tjie O r i g i n s o f t h e S e c o n d W o r l d War: A, J.P.  42 assumptions attack. Their  and,  as s u c h ,  a r e not open t o d i r e c t  They a r e i n a c c u r a t e . inaccuracy provides  propositions  that  no  How  c o u l d they  basis  a r e d e r i v e d from  empirical  be  otherwise?  for rejecting  the  them.  T r u l y i m p o r t a n t and s i g n i f i c a n t h y p o t h e s e s w i l l be found t o have "assumptions" t h a t are wildly i n a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i v e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of r e a l i t y and i n g e n e r a l , t h e more s i g n i f i c a n t t h e t h e o r y , t h e more u n r e a l i s t i c the assumptions (in this sense). The r e a s o n i s s i m p l e . A hypothesis i s i m p o r t a n t i f i t " e x p l a i n s " much by l i t t l e , t h a t i s i f i t a b s t r a c t s t h e common and c r u c i a l elements from the mass o f complex and detailed circumstances surrounding the phenomena t o be e x p l a i n e d and permits v a l i d p r e d i c t i o n s on t h e b a s i s o f them alone,. To be i m p o r t a n t , t h e r e f o r e , a hypotheiss must be d e s c r i p t i v e l y f a l s e in i t s assumptions; i t t a k e s a c c o u n t o f and a c c o u n t s f o r none o f t h e many o t h e r attendant circumstances, s i n c e i t s v e r y s u c c e s s shows them t o be i r r e l e v a n t f o r t h e phenomena t o be e x p l a i n e d . 1 2  The  underscored  the b a s i s of chapter far  and  phrase,  them a l o n e " ,  contradictory  balance  most s e v e r e  a s a whole,  within  and  theorists  critics).  complaint:  crux of  the  (plus the  C a r r y i n g so  W.R.  are  a l l sorts  balance  of  predictions  of  power  particular of  much i s a  sign  Louis  York:  (New  on  this  the assumptions  w i t h i n t h e works o f  T a y l o r and H i s C r i t i c s , ed. W i l e y S S o n s , 1972) , p, 16. 2  to the  predictions  They a r e a b l e t o s u p p o r t  predictions  o f power  permits v a l i d  b r i n g s me  of the c r i t i c s *  too permissive.  literature,  "and  their of  John  M i l t o n Friedman, "The M e t h o d o l o g y o f P o s i t i v e E c o n o m i c s " i n Essays In P o s i t i v e Economics (Chicago: U n i v e r s i t y of C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 5 3 ) , pp.14-15. Kenneth W a l t z makes t h e same p o i n t and a l s o f i n g e r s Organski i n h i s c r i t i c a l essay on "Theory of International Relations," in International Politics, V o l . 8 Handbook of P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e (New Y o r k : A d d i s o n - W e s l e y , 1975), p p . 1 - 8 6 i  weakness,  not  i n c i d e n c e of  strength-  To  interstate  war  have a p o s i t i v e t h e o r y s o m e t h i n g must  be  of  the  tightened,  added, t h r o w n away o r r e p l a c e d . For  those  theorists,  such  as  towards the d e d u c t i v e approach immediate t a s k  i s to r e p a i r  agree  w i t h them.  often  t h a t we  mislead  The  Our  behind  task  —  carpenter's.  then  inclined  1 3  I  admire,  metaphorical  must a l s o  The  latter  h i s work,  secures  i t to  be c r e a t e d  have s e c u r e the  ground.  "constructed",  I prefer to start  use  He  sky-hooks-.  can  afford  from  former  use  —  like  up.  i t i s to  the  foundations i n  does h i s work  near  so  nature,  the bottom  I f theories from  not  and e v e n t u a l l y  a r c h i t e c t ' s than  must  while the  work i n ,  the  do  m e t a p h o r s , w h i c h we  believe that theoretical structures  i s more a k i n t o t h e  o r d e r t o do  are  the f o u n d a t i o n s .  no l o n g e r r e c o g n i z e t h e i r  us t o  who  to theory c o n s t r u c t i o n ,  "building"  t h e o t h e r s t r u c t u r e s we leave  Riker,  must  the top  to ignore gravity  for a  and be  and  to  little  1 3  W i l l i a m H. R i k e r , The T h e o r y Of P o l i t i c a l C o a l i t i o n s (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1962)7 ~pp.T-3"T. Riker substitutes "winning" f o r "power" maximization and p r o c e e d s t o e r e c t a " s i z e p r i n c i p l e " upon t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l t h e o r y o f games. To w i t : " I n s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s s i m i l a r t o n - p e r s o n , z e r o sum games w i t h s i d e payments, p a r t i c i p a n t s c r e a t e c o a l i t i o n s j u s t as l a r g e as t h e y b e l i e v e w i l l e n s u r e w i n n i n g a n d no l a r g e r " (32-33)..  1 4  F o r t h o s e who t h i n k t h a t t h i s y i e l d s t o t h e t e m p t a t i o n o f inductivism or "mere f a c t g a t h e r i n g " , Robert Merton provides a homily. The h a c k n e y e d p h r a s e o f t e n e x p r e s s e s an unexamined and i m p a t i e n t p h i l o s o p h y of i n v e s t i g a t i o n . It r e f l e c t s the c o m p e l l i n g urge t o a r r i v e d i r e c t l y at an e x p l a n a t o r y i d e a . Yet p r a c t i c e d i n v e s t i g a t o r s  44  while  until  I can  now  power t h e o r y empirically  3.2  THE  we  see  i f t h e r e i s something to  rehearse and  the  present  examine  support. *  a m b i g u i t i e s of the the  1  balance  bundle of arguments  that  of I  below.  HOST PROBABLE THEORY  According  t o the  balance  o f power  theory,  A l l the v a r i o u s bodies, t h e g r e a t e r and the l e s s e r powers, were poised against one a n o t h e r , each e x e r c i s i n g a k i n d o f g r a v i t a t i o n a l p u l l on a l l t h e r e s t — and t h e p u l l o f each would be p r o p o r t i o n a t e t o i t s mass, t h o u g h i t s e f f e c t would be g r e a t l y r e d u c e d a s i t acted at a greater distance. When one o f t h e s e g r e a t b o d i e s i n c r e a s e d i t s mass, therefore - when f o r some r e a s o n , F r a n c e , f o r example, had an undue a c c e s s i o n o f strength - the r e s t could r e c o v e r an e q u i l i b r i u m o n l y by r e g r o u p i n g t h e m s e l v e s , l i k e sets of b a l l e t dancers, making a n e c e s s a r y r e c t i f i c a t i o n i n t h e d i s t a n c e s , and p r o d u c i n g new c o m b i n a t i o n s . Otherwise, t h e overgrown power w o u l d s w a l l o w up t h e l i t t l e ones n e a r a t hand, und become g r e a t e r s t i l l — j u s t a s t h e moon would f a l l i n t o t h e e a r t h i f t h e r e were no c o u n t e r a c t i n g f o r c e s to o f f s e t the e f f e c t of g r a v i t y . 1 5  tell us t h a t often a fruitful i d e a can be adequately formulated only a f t e r r e a s o n a b l y sound d a t a h a v e b r o u g h t i t t o mind. In s o c i o l o g y as i n other d i s c i p l i n e s , p s u e d o - f a c t s have a way o f i n d u c i n g pseudoproblems, which c a n n o t be s o l v e d b e c a u s e m a t t e r s a r e n o t a s t h e y p u r p o r t t o be. It i s o n l y when t e d i o u s r e c i t a t i o n s o f u n r e l a t e d f a c t are s u b s t i t u t e d f o r the absent i d e a t h a t i n q u i r y d e c l i n e s i n t o "mere" f a c t - f i n d i n g . " N o t e s on Problem-Finding i n Sociology," i n Sociology Today ed. R o b e r t K. H e r t o n , L e o n a r d Broom and L e o n a r d S. Cottrell, Jr. {New Y o r k : B a s i c B o o k s , 1 9 5 9 ) , pp. x i v - x v . See C h a p t e r IV below f o r many e x a m p l e s o f what I c o n s i d e r t o be p a r t i a l l y p r o c e s s e d psuedo-facts. 1 5  H e r b e r t B u t t e r f i e l d , "The B a l a n c e o f Power" i n D i p l o m a t i c I n v e s t i g a t i o n s , ed. H e r b e r t B u t t e r f i e l d and M a r t i n Wight ( C a m b r i d g e : H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966), p.132.  H5  The  theory,  this  with  Newtonian  balance  roots extending  description of  suggests,  relations  f a r t h e r and f u r t h e r a f i e l d  the s o - c a l l e d  i s among t h e  literature.  oldest i n  From t h e  classic  contemporary  post-Newtonian  where i t r e m a i n s c e n t r a l t o many e x p l a n a t i o n s  peace,  the r o o t s of the balance  Polybius'  histories  Kautilya's advice For  and  particular  t h e most  the balance  manifestation  o f war and  c a n be  G r e e c e and Rome,  to princes of ancient  Morgenthau,  Realism  o f power n o t i o n  of ancient  European  the i n t e r n a t i o n a l  world,  in  India.  influential  o f power,  the  of a general  than  followed and i n  1 6  exponent o f p o l i t i c a l latter  social  " i s only a  principle"  analogous  t o t h e law o f g r a v i t y i n p h y s i c s . the balance o f power and p o l i c i e s aiming at i t s preservation a r e n o t o n l y i n e v i t a b l e b u t a r e an e s s e n t i a l s t a b i l i z i n g factor i n a society of sovereign nations..... t h e i n s t a b i l i t y o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b a l a n c e o f power i s due n o t t o t h e f a u l t i n e s s o f t h e p r i n c i p l e , but to the p a r t i c u l a r conditions under w h i c h t h e principle must o p e r a t e i n a society of sovereign nations.. 1 7  To  t h o s e who v a l u e  their  accuracy,  p h y s i c a l laws such  an a c c u r a c y  bestowed  who, t h e r e f o r e , pooh-pooh s o c i a l is  dubious.  not,  scientific  »  6  laws.  and i n a c c u r a c y Scriven  Morgenthau's  statement  i s a very  respectable i s  trait in  " t h e key  For the i n t e l l e c t u a l history of the notion i n 17th and 18th c e n t u r y E u r o p e a n t h o u g h t and p r a c t i c e , s e e Edward Vose G u l i c k , Europe s C l a s s i c a l B a l a n c e Of Power (New Y o r k : H. W. N o r t o n , 1 9 6 7 ) . " Politics  Among  Nations,  p.161.  and  l a w s need n o t be, and o f t e n a r e  argues t h a t inaccuracy  1  1 7  by m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m ,  science,  However, s c i e n t i f i c  guantitative,  as t h e law o f g r a v i t y f o r  46 property of p h y s i c a l laws." a relationship approximation  between p r o p e r t i e s " w h i c h t o the true physical  be t h e o r e t i c a l l y simple  theoretically  truth  tractable.  approximation;  status  A p h y s i c a l l a w , he w r i t e s ,  1 8  We  i f i t i s descriptively i t  represents.  Here  i s the s i m p l e s t  useful  b e h a v i o r and w h i c h a p p e a r s  to  The b a l a n c e o f power i s c e r t a i n l y  however,  tractable.  expresses  i t  should  i s neither  a  u s e f u l nor  n o t ask a c a n d i d a t e f o r law  honest.  We  the balance  must ask what g r e a t o f power  i s very  ambiguous. Ambiguity the  s a t u r a t e s the notion of  longevity  ambiguity. excesses  i t has  F o r each  enjoyed person  of the balance  is a  who  o f power,  will  demonstrates  he  calculated  hero. changed  »  8  1 9  Pollard their  function  begets.  appears  and  of that  or d e c r i e s the and p o i n t s o u t  With t o n g u e f i r m l y i n  t h a t , i f t h i s i s t o be c o n t i n u e d ,  that  p e r m i t t e d by t h e v a r i o u s u s e s "power" a p p r o a c h e s  o f power,  the v i r t u e s  another  c o n t i n u e f o r some t i m e y e t .  Dictionary,  and  simple  extols  o n c e more t h e c o n f u s i o n t h e term cheek, P o l l a r d  the balance  Aided  by t h e O x f o r d  t h e number  of  English  permutations  o f t h e t h r e e words " b a l a n c e " ,  21,000.*  9  "of"  Like Heinlein's extraterrestial  "had d i s c o v e r e d t h a t meanings but s h o r t  i t  l o n g human  words  words were s l i p p e r y ,  rarely changing  Michael Scriven "The Key P r o p e r t y of Physical Laws Inaccuracy", i n C u r r e n t I s s u e s I n The P h i l o s o p h y Of S c i e n c e , e d . H. F i e g l and G. M a x w e l l (New Y o r k : R i n e h a r t and W i n s t o n , 1961) , pp.100-101. (Emphasis i n t h e original.) A.F. Pollard, "The B a l a n c e o f Power," J o u r n a l o f t h e British Institute of International Affairs 2 (March 1923)",~51-64.  47 without  pattern.  water w i t h a Haas and  knife."*  prescriptive  usages  respectively.  "balanced"  coalition  do s h a r e  that  The  choose  the instrument  alliance,  and  found  who six.  i t inhibits why  of p o l i c y  t o swallow  power a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h i s That  remarkable,  t h e o r i e s from and  perhaps  t h e same s c h o o l d i f f e r when t h e y d i f f e r , the ambiguity  2  0  2  1  2 1  their  and  rather  and  different be  do,  c o n c e r n i n g the  within meaning  the  no  The and  state virtue  preserves states  than One  which  (say) plausible  of the balance  other plausible  expected  and  Zinnes  schools d i f f e r  among t h e m s e l v e s ,  as they  As  when do  neighbours?  section,  i t i s to  eight  of states  empire  answer i s p r o v i d e d i n t h e N e w t o n i a n d e s c r i p t i o n  exist.  lift  excluded  of dominance.  q u e s t i o n remains:  attempt  to  a common f e a t u r e :  i s i n a position  o f power i s  as  located  Zinnes,  had i n c l u d e d ,  independence. war  surveys,  s u r v e y , t h e many d i s t r i b u t i o n s  have been l a b e l l e d  of the balance  trying  0  ones they  out i n her  or e x i s t i n g  human words were l i k e  W i g h t , i n more e m p i r i c a l  nine d i s t i n c t  points  Short  that  of  ones  i s not  those  within  but i t i s d i s c o n c e r t i n g  themselves. o f t h e term  Once we  extract  "balance  Robert H e i n l e i n , S t r a n g e r I n A S t r a n g e Land a s c i t e d W. J.M. Mackenzie, Power, Violence, Decision (Harmondsworth: P e n g u i n Books, 1 9 7 5 ) , p. 35.  in  E r n s t B. Haas, "The B a l a n c e o f Power: Prescription, C o n c e p t o r P r o p a g a n d a ? , " World P o l i t i c s , 5 ( J u l y 1953), 442-477; M a r t i n W i g h t , Power P o l i t i c s , (1946 and 1978; D i n a Z i n n e s , "An A n a l y t i c a l Study o f t h e B a l a n c e o f Power T h e o r i e s , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h 3 (1967), 270-288 and " C o a l i t i o n T h e o r i e s and t h e B a l a n c e o f Power," i n The Study of C o a l i t i o n B e h a v i o r , ed. Sven G r o e n n i n g s , E;W. . K e l l y and M i c h a e l L e i s e r s o n (New Y o r k : H o l t , R i n e h a r t and W i n s t o n , 1 9 7 0 ) , pp. 351-368.  of  48  power", this  the t h e o r e t i c a l ambiguity  a footnote  exhibited term  context  beneath the  above, has  four  that  meanings. the four  four  meanings t o be f o u n d principle: struggle The  (2)  power.  balance:  in  the  Among  Nations  that  i t i s not  c l e a r from t h e  and  lower l i m i t  hiswriting.  2 3  an i n c r e a s e  2 2  i n h i s book  hiscritics t o the  have  number o f  R e c a l l Morgenthau's  like  The  analogy  a l l politics,  capabilities, states.  basic  i sa  relative  power p o s i t i o n ;  (3) t h e  so  egual  distribution  two u s a g e s i s t o  assesses i t s account military  and  long  as  industrial  wars  states.  a l l the  a bank  and s e e k s a  with  d i v i d i n g n a t i o n a l c r e d i t s from  t o t h e accounts o f other  balance  approximate p a r i t y .  actual  a l l i a n c e s and f i g h t i n g  The l i n e  i n relation i sin  i n the f i r s t  by i n c r e a s i n g  joining  (1)  an a p p r o x i m a t e l y  state constantly  balance  are:  in relative (4)  o f power;and  each  favourable  account  i s only  Politics  h i s readers  i s operative,  d e f i n i t i o n s he d o e s g i v e  distribution  of  illustrate  f o r power".  position;  floats  Often  from  "international politics,  four  solvent  passage  Morgenthau i n f o r m s  which o f  suggested  of  L e t me  w i t h an e x a m p l e .  In  the  persists.  states  Each  less debits state's  are at  When s p e a k i n g o f e g u i b a l a n c e o r p a r i t y and  the actual d i s t r i b u t i o n  o f power, t h e a n a l o g y  i s to a physical  balance.  2  2  F o r example, I n i s C l a u d e , J r . , Power a n d I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , (New Y o r k : Random House, "1962)".  2  3  Morgenthau,  Politics  Among N a t i o n s ,  p.161,  f n . 1.  49 Now,  what i s t o be g a i n e d  power i s " n o t o n l y factor is  by d e c l a r i n g t h a t t h e b a l a n c e  inevitable"  b u t a l s o "an e s s e n t i a l  i n a s o c i e t y of sovereign nations"?  uninformative:  a number  a balance  of states,  of the t r u t h  i s 1.00.  like  between  states or  informative, Bicher and  still  prevents  less is  of the balance lacks this  assumption-  probable,  is  that eguibalance  more  potential.  preserves  peace  i s not t h a t i t but t h a t i t a l s o  creates uncertainty of  uncertainty of success,  makes t h e d e c i s i o n o f a n y s t a t e t o i n i t i a t e  created  far  Morgenthau•s d i s c u s s i o n  ( d e f i n e d as e g u i b a l a n c e )  a c c o r d i n g t o Morgenthau,  a d v a n t a g e , and t h i s  hand,  uncertain —  eguibalance  converse.  Equibalance,  the other  is  p r o p o s i t i o n , and o t h e r s e q u a l l y r i c h ,  c o n t a i n s the  r e s t a t e s the  t h a t an  theoretical  with  of other  when t h e f i r s t  inevitable  and h a s  given  probability  s e c o n d one s i m p l y  The m a j o r p r o b l e m  o f power  definition  the p r o b a b i l i t y  The s t a t e m e n t  coalitions  the statement  war.  The  The same c a n be s a i d  d e f i n i t i o n i s s u b s t i t u t e d and t h e power m a x i m i z a t i o n  The t h i r d  be d i s t r i b u t e d .  o f t h a t statement,  tautologies,  stabilizing  o f power i s i n e v i t a b l e b e c a u s e ,  power w i l l  of  c a l c u l a t i o n s of  t h e r e i s no c u r r e n c y  by a p p r o x i m a t e p a r i t y  may  i f war were t o o c c u r , war l e s s  n a t i o n a l power o f power — lead  likely.  are inherently  and t h e u n c e r t a i n t y  t o war a s w e l l a s  prevent  it. S i n c e i n a balance-of-power system a l l nations l i v e i n constant fear l e s t their r i v a l s d e p r i v e them, a t the f i r s t o p p o r t u n e moment, o f t h e i r power p o s i t i o n , a l l n a t i o n s have a v i t a l interest i n anticipating such a d e v e l o p m e n t and d o i n g unto o t h e r s what t h e y do n o t want o t h e r s t o do u n t o t h e m . * 2  On  50 While "peace balance  can  hard  the  beginning  t o see  balance  we  key  t o be  accept  and  probable  the  of  by  two  limitations  modern s t a t e s y s t e m This balance  2 5  p r o p e r t y any wrong,  of  devices"  on  conflict  have t h e i r  —  the  —  " i tis  the  a statement  a c c o r d i n g t o Popper, content  of the  between t h e  content  i s in direct  empirical content,  i f we  power t h e o r y  or s e t  of  statements  need  possess  or s e t of  statements  to explanatory  the balance  of  being  -  and,  nothing.  The  precludes  Ajnong N a t i o n s ,  a  most The  "true" i s ,  information  power.  therefore,  of  information  and  power t h e o r y  e x p l a i n i n g anything, content  is it.  p r o p o r t i o n to the  probable,  is  2 7  Empty  the  most  explaining  falsifiability  2  4  Morgenthau, P o l i t i c s  2  5  Ibid.,  2  6  This i s not a sin committed e x c l u s i v e l y by the " t r a d i t i o n a l " b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r i s t s . F o r example, M o r t o n A. Kaplan i n h i s i n n o v a t i v e "systems a n a l y s i s " points to many t e s t a b l e e m p i r i c a l c o n s e g u e n c e s of h i s " b a l a n c e o f power model" which i n f a c t serve to define t h a t model. See t h e P r e f a c e and pp.22-36 o f System And P r o c e s s I n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s {New Y o r k : John Wiley and Sons, 1957).  2  7  K a r l Popper, The L o g i c o f S c i e n t i f i c D i s c o v e r y , 2nd ed. (New Y o r k : Harper S Bow, 1968), pp.112-146 and C o n j e c t u r e s And R e f u t a t i o n s : The Growth o f S c i e n t i f i c Knowledge,, (New Y o r k : H a r p e r S Row, 1968), pp.33-65-  pp.22,  the  lacks,  d e s i r e the  of  proportion  l a c k of  in  probability  balance  i n inverse  statement  theory  since  2 6  d e g r e e o f c o r r o b o r a t i o n , and then  origin  power t h e o r y  explanatory  Popper's d i s t i n c t i o n  theory,  probability  only  t h a t most o f t h e wars t h a t have been f o u g h t  of power."  the a b i l i t y  normative  of the  t h e r e f o r e , one  theory  maintained  o f power and  not  If  be  p. 202.  204.  or  of  t  51 testability, In the  the basic criterion  part,  the d i f f i c u l t y  terms.  pinned  i s the ambiguity  t o eguibalance,  propositions.  informative,  the theory  that eguibalance  improbable  t h e o r y and a r e combined vanish.  useless;  the explanatory  the balance balance  ambiguities  i n the core  plus,  Rather  than  concept.  lines.  one from  devolve  from  i r r e f u t a b l e and eguibalance  envelops  i t and i n t h i s and  above t h e  In g r a p h i c a l terms, the l o g i c  The  logic i s f u l l  circles  be a r r a n g e d  To t e l l  are both  very d e s i r a b l e  of reversals,  are avoided,  as i f they  were  the  o n a moebius  As you f o l l o w i t , up becomes down; i n s i d e , minus.  deters  confronting empirical  c h i m e r i c a l over  tautological  p r o p o s i t i o n s seem t o  these  power o f t h e argument t h a t  o f power i s  straight  where t i g h t  strip.  conflicting  When t h e y  i s rendered  o f power t h e o r y  manner t h e  not along  o f power" i s  s t i m u l a t e s war,  within i t ,  Then t h e t h e o r y  l e a d s t o p e a c e o r war i s n i l . evidence,  contains  and f a l s i f i a b l e .  gualities  and,  and m a l l e a b i l i t y o f  To r e p e a t , the c o n j e c t u r e t h a t e g u i b a l a n c e  war, a n d i t s c o n v e r s e ,  is  theory.  E v e n where t h e meaning o f t h e " b a l a n c e  down  a single  of a s c i e n t i f i c  o u t s i d e ; and  the other, e m p i r i c a l evidence i s  needed. In  short, the balance  politics  literature,  power p o l i t i c s testable  are s c i e n t i f i c a l l y  literature  propositions.  arguments distribution explanation  alliance  o f power t h e o r i e s ,  does  commitments,  o f g r e a t power war.  i n t h e power  uninteresting,  and t h e  c o n t a i n numerous i n t e r e s t i n g and  Moreover,  of capabilities  as f o u n d  - do  the  b a s i c elements o f the  relative seem  power  essential  position, to  any  52 3a3  L E S S PROBABLE PROPOSITIONS An e x a m i n a t i o n  balance of  of t h e complete  power t h e o r i s t s would  f o r m a t i o n , maintenance whatever  else  a l l i a n c e s and and  be,  Although  upon t h e i r alliance this  3«,3= 1  entail investigation  of  the  My  2 8  putative  f o r m a t i o n and  aim  termination  a theory of  here i s l e s s  ambitious  e x p l a n a t i o n s o f g r e a t power  of a l l i a n c e s  power p o s i t i o n s  will  between  g r e a t powers  be t a k e n i n t o  a r e not  "dependent  account, variables"  work.  A l l i a n c e Commitments and  Because a l l i a n c e s scales  the  t h e b a l a n c e o f power i s  the i n f l u e n c e s  relative  by  breakdown o f c o a l i t i o n s o f s t a t e s , f o r  counter-alliances.  I c o n f i n e myself t o the  war.  in  i t may  and  processes described  up  attention  and in  War  between g r e a t  down v i g o r o u s l y , the balance  powers can  they r e c e i v e  o f power  literature  shift  the  f a r more than  do  commitments e x c h a n g e d  between g r e a t powers  and  non-great  powers.  mean t h a t  and  "latent  T h i s does not  the l a t t e r ,  war  8  And many o f t h e e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s which draw t h e o r e t i c a l s u s t e n a n c e from t h e b a l a n c e o f power l i t e r a t u r e examine alliance formation. See, f o r e x a m p l e s , O l e R. H o l s t i , P. T e r r e n c e Hopmann and John D. Sullivan, U n i t y and Disintegration i n International Alliances: Comparative S t u d i e s (New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y S S o n s , 1973) and; Patrick J. McGowan and R o b e r t M. Rood, " A l l i a n c e Behavior i n B a l a n c e o f Power S y s t e m s : Applying a P o i s s o n Model t o Nineteenth Century Europe," American P o l i t i c a l Science R e v i e w , 69 (September 1975), 859-870-  2 9  x h e p h r a s e i s f r o m R o b e r t E. Osgood, A l l i a n c e s and American F o r e i g n P o l i c y ( B a l t i m o r e : Johns Hopkins P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 ) , pp.18-19.  2  53 communities" i n g e n e r a l , o f war o r t h a t can  the putative  be an i n d i r e c t one  only.  (See F i g u r e  may  defensive  w i t h war o r t h e b l u f f  and  p a t h between a l l i a n c e s and war  particularly an  politics,  or offensive  continues:  the likelihood  power p o s i t i o n  1:1 above.)  represent  international  not increase  m e d i a t e d by r e l a t i v e  A l l i a n c e commitments, powers,  may  2 9  expansion  of  non-great  involvement i n  and " w h e t h e r • c o n t r a c t e d  purposes, of  to increase  the area  a d d i t i o n a l momentum t o t h e 3<  As S c h w a r z e n b e r g e r the f i e l d of f r i c t i o n  o f war," and t h e y  anarchic  s o c i e t y ^ " > Two p r o p o s i t i o n s  for  a l l i a n c e s are concluded  war i n v i e w . "  " a l l i a n c e s tend  i n case o f c o n f l i c t  those with  forces  t o be examined  "may  give  i n international then a r e :  P r o p o s i t i o n 1: The more a l l i e s , t h e more l i k e l y t h a t a g r e a t power w i l l become i n v o l v e d i n i n t e r s t a t e warP r o p o s i t i o n 2: The more n o n - g r e a t power a l l i e s , t h e more l i k e l y t h a t a g r e a t power w i l l become i n v o l v e d i n i n t e r - s t a t e war. W h i l e , as S c h w a r z e n b e r g e r among o t h e r s may add t o t h e c h a o s a n d along  like  J a n u s , have a n o t h e r f a c e .  A l l i a n c e s , i t i s argued,  some s t a b i l i t y Morgenthau  and c e r t a i n t y t o  declares  that  alliances  expand war once war o c c u r s ,  w i t h most b a l a n c e o f power t h e o r i s t s ,  alliances, chaos.  argues,  "an  recognizes  he, that  They c a n r e d u c e  may p r e v e n t war and l e n d international relations.  a l l i a n c e adds  precision,  30 S c h w a r z e n b e r g e r , Power P o l i t i c s , pp.166-167. See a l s o R i c h a r d R o s e c r a n c e , I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s : P e a c e Or War (New Y o r k : M c G r a w - H i l l Book~Company, 1973)7 pp.~T29, 298,.  54 especially  in  the  community o f concrete  form  interests  measures  of  limitation,  and  to  serving  commitments a r e  less  and  which t h e y  the  pattern  alliances join  alter  other states  still  to  other s t a t e s ) , The  stability  of  alliances  reduce the  create  this  and,  sense,  simplify  ecological  foes,  social  components i s r e d u c e d ; . power t e n d s t o or  coalitions,  interstate Similarly describing  polarize the  of  a  social  power  and  the  states  relative  relations  system,  like  between  As  states.  the  about  The  b a l a n c e or the  comes  event  between the  two  units  paddy r a t h e r  than  is a  In and  the  number  of  distribution  of  most p o w e r f u l  more  of  of  resemble a zero  nature"  and  resiliency  metaphor becomes more to  Formal  threat.  number o f  systems i s reduced as  balance of  a rice  p e r c e p t i o n s of  to  define  b y s t a n d e r s i n the  reduce the  3 2  of  commitments  (for  c h o i c e s open;  mechanical  competition "the  type of  position  they s i m p l i f y  thereby, focus  relations  and  of  their  number o f  alliances  the  numbers  e c o s y s t e m , d e p e n d s upon c o m p l e x i t y .  friends,  conflict;  the  and  form.  increase  stability an  than  existing  policies  Here t h e  3  distribution  and  an  general  them." *  important  the  states.  the  to  sum  suitable  meadow.  states apt: game. when  Bipolar  3 1  P o l i t i c s Among N a t i o n s ,  p.176.  3 2  On " r e s i l i e n c y " see C r a w f o r d S. Holling, "Stability in Ecological and S o c i a l Systems," in Diversity And S t a b i l i t y J_n E c o l o g i c a l S y s t e m s : R e p o r t o f Symposium b^eld May 26-28, 1969 "(Upton, N.Y.: Brookhaven N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y , 1969), pp-128-141.  55 configurations to small than  and  single species  c h a n g e s and,  less orderly  Because the  therefore,  gardens are require  arrangements of  c o n s e g u e n c e s o f even  slight  power a l l i a n c e s  e x t e n s i o n s of protect the  already  i n t e r e s t as  with  plants.  i n a t t e n t i o n are  so  33  "pawns" may  formal  resilient  f a r more a t t e n t i o n  s t a t e s and  ominous, e a c h i s c a r e f u l l y m a n a g e d . Great  less  public  existing interests.  not  be  so  much  declarations  to  S n y d e r , b u i l d i n g upon  bipolarity/multipolarity/stability  d e b a t e , p u t s the  case  succinctly: when a l i g n m e n t s a r e c l e a r and f i r m , the s t r e n g t h of the i n t e r e s t i n preventing the defeat o f an a l l y or an o p p o n e n t ' s increase of power w i l l encourage r e s i s t a n c e and favor deterrence of aggression. The most d a n g e r o u s c o n d i t i o n i s t h a t i n w h i c h a l l i a n c e commitments seem q u e s t i o n a b l e to o u t s i d e r s but a r e i n r e a l i t y q u i t e f i r m . 3 4  As of  Morgenthau a r g u e s , power " i s  an  an  accurate  i d e a l task  and  evaluation  of  the  hence i n c a p a b l e  balance of  achievement": The c r o w n i n g u n c e r t a i n t y . . . l i e s i n the f a c t t h a t one c a n n o t a l w a y s be s u r e who a r e one's own allies and who a r e t h e o p p o n e n t ' s . A l i g n m e n t s by v i r t u e o f a l l i a n c e t r e a t i e s are n o t a l w a y s i d e n t i c a l w i t h t h e a l l i a n c e s t h a t oppose e a c h o t h e r i n t h e a c t u a l war,. 35  3 3  See Kenneth N. W a l t z , "The S t a b i l i t y o f a B i p o l a r W o r l d , " Q a e d a l u s , 93 (Summer 1964), 881-909- and G l e n n H. S n y d e r , " C o n f l i c t and C r i s i s i n the Internatonal System," i n H2£i<l P o l i t i c s , e d . James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson and G a v i n Boyd (New York: The F r e e Press, 1976), pp.682-720.  3 4  S n y d e r , " C o n f l i c t and C r i s i s , " p..691. A l s o see B r u c e Russett, "The C a l c u l u s of Deterrence," Journal of C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n . 7 (June 1963) , 9 7 - 1 0 9 7  M.  56 Morgenthau's f i r s t unconscious d e n i a l precision  sentence should of h i s p o s i t i o n  to c a l c u l a t i o n s  careful  the  last  here  war  once i t  i s related  which  alliances  just  treated  alliances  politics,  i t is  worth  but  against  we  the  of t h e is  of  paper".  treaty  a maxim  which of  remembering t h a t  the  t h e U n i t e d Kingdom b e c a u s e word -  e x p e c t a t i o n s embodied upon?  possible relationships  'neutrality'  of space.  substitute for  in  formal  the  -.-..a s c r a p  and  discussion  the i n c i d e n c e  Schroeder suggests  "Nothing",  the p a i n f u l l y  alliance  I f not, further  between them  would be a waste o f s p a c e .  be a waste  and  of  3 6  commitments t o be r e l i e d  war  i t s course,  a r e "mere s c r a p s  of Belgium  t o "a  of  the i n c i d e n c e  to the  British  ihe  the  s c r a p s of paper"  cursing  Are  from  be  as "mere  the n e u t r a l i t y  were t o s t i c k  should  some  German C h a n c e l l o r was  paper,"  we  faces.  observation that  Bethmann's d e s c r i p t i o n  of  does have two  the  While  international  His  Certainly  a l l  guaranteed  or d i s a d v a n t a g e .  ad h o c e r g o p r o p t e r hoc from  an some  guoted,  conclusion that f o r some  alliances  i n c i d e n c e o f war  occurs.  proceeds  were  taken as lend  to the e x p e c t a t i o n s about  take care a g a i n s t logic  sentence  Janus  t o s e p a r a t e the  c o u r s e o f war  that  of advantage  argument i s s h a r p e r t h a n t h a t : Regarding  n o t be  he  concludes,  empirical  3  5  Morgenthau, P o l i t i c s  3  6  As c i t e d i n B a r b a r a Tuchman, The Y o r k : M a c m i l l a n , 1962), p. 153,  task  of  Among N a t i o n s , pp.147, Guns  of  i t would "can  functional  199.  Of Aucjust  (New  }  57 analysis of p a r t i c u l a r  alliances."  a n a l y z i n g and c a t e g o r i z i n g a l l i a n c e s according to t h e i r t y p e s or p r o v i s i o n s (defensive or o f f e n s i v e , l i m i t e d or u n l i m i t e d , c o n s u l t a t i v e or a u t o m a t i c , w i t h o r w i t h o u t m i l i t a r y c o n v e n t i o n s , b i l a t e r a l or multilateral) a r e n o t l i k e l y t o be v e r y f r u i t f u l i n d e s c r i b i n g what a l l i a n c e s r e a l l y d o . . . 3 7  To  see  i f formal a l l i a n c e s  modest, e l e m e n t a l ,  albeit  do  bind,  S i n g e r and  ex p_ost f a c t o  Small performed  experiment.  If alliance commitments r e f l e c t b o t h a congruence of i n t e r e s t s among t h e s i g n a t o r i e s and a c o n s t r a i n t on their f u t u r e freedom of a c t i o n , i t would seem r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t t h a t when an a l l i a n c e member g e t s i n t o war, the behavior of i t s partners would be something other t h a n random. That i s , alliance p a r t n e r s would be e x p e c t e d to f i g h t a l o n g s i d e one a n o t h e r more o f t e n t h a n n o n - p a r t n e r s , and a g a i n s t one another l e s s o f t e n than o t h e r s . 3 8  Classifying  alliances  o b l i g a t i o n s they  treaties  that  the  reproduced  3  7  was  t o the  types  (defense  pacts,  neutrality  imposed  non-aggression this  according  i n Table  and  case.  ententes), Some  Singer  of t h e i r  of  and  formal pacts  Small  calculations  found are  111:1.  Schroeder notes that he " r e f e r s e s p e c i a l l y " to the s t u d i e s by J . D a v i d S i n g e r and M e l v i n S m a l l , t h e makers o f t h e d a t a w h i c h I am u s i n g h e r e . He w r i t e s t h a t nor are attempts to establish statistical c o r r e l a t i o n s between t h e numbers and t y p e s of alliances existing at various t i m e s and the c o r r e s p o n d i n g l e v e l s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t and t e n s i o n l i k e l y t o be v e r y f r u i t f u l . P a u l W. Schroeder, " A l l i a n c e s , 1815-1945: Weapons o f Power and T o o l s o f Management", i n H i s t o r i c a l Dimensions of N a t i o n a l S e c u r t i y Problems ed. K l a u s K n o r r (Lawrence, K a n s a s : U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s o f K a n s a s , 1976), p.225.  3  8  and  J. D. S i n g e r and Melvin Small, "Formal A l l i a n c e s , 1815-1939: A Q u a n t i t a t i v e D e s c r i p t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h . 3 ( 1 9 6 6 ) , 16-17.  a  58  Table 111:1  about  here  The types of commitment, c o n t r a r y to Schroeder's s u g g e s t i o n ,  do  seem t o matter. Defense a l l i a n c e s impose the most severe demands and, ententes which r e g u i r e they are  o n l y c o n s u l t a t i o n i n the  f o r m a l l y unequivocal.  r a t h e r than f o s t e r Pawns are l i k e l y forewarned.  Defense  R e c a l l i n g the  logic  war,  commitments reduce,  ambiguity i n the r e l a t i o n s t o be c l o s e l y watched  event of  unlike  between s t a t e s .  and p o t e n t i a l p r e d a t o r s  o f the  *bipolarity-less  u n c e r t a i n t y - p e a c e ' c h a i n , a p r o p o s i t i o n to be examined i s : P r o p o s i t i o n 3: Defense commitments d e t e r . Non-defense • commitments are more l i k e l y than defense commitments to l e a d t o n o n - a c t i v i s t war. By i m p l i c a t i o n  from P r o p o s i t i o n  2:  P r o p o s i t i o n 4: Non-defense commitments t o non-great powers are more l i k e l y than defense commitments to lead t o n o n - a c t i v i s t war. No doubt, with a l i t t l e  more i m a g i n a t i o n ,  p r o p o s i t i o n s concerning types of  alliances,  I c o u l d unpack more the p a t t e r n s they  form, and the types of involvement i n war they might do so i n  the a b s t r a c t would be both  lead to,  To  t e d i o u s and unproductive.  The permutations  a r e too  numerous and  the balance  t h e o r i s t s wisely  avoid  t h e i r example now  and heed the a d v i c e of Tukey and Wilk "to begin  such d e t a i l e d s p e c u l a t i o n s .  o f power I follow  by o b t a i n i n g and t r y i n g t o e x p l a i n s p e c i f i c f i n d i n g s , r a t h e r than attempting  to  catalogue  a l l possible  findings  and  3 « Tukey and B i l k , "Data A n a l y s i s and S t a t i s t i c s , " p.373.  59  explanations." closely  3 9  Moreover,  i n the discussion  I will  try  o f economic  t o heed  t h e s e words more  growth r a t e s  and  war  follows.  3.3.2  E c o n o m i c Growth  War  B a t e s and  War  begets Poverty,  Then  People w i l l Biches  Poverty  traffic  Peace  and  increase  Biches produceth  Pride,  Pride i s  War's g r o u n d . War  Very rates  different  t o war  perspective usually  "stress", release  chains  and p e a c e . and t h e o t h e r  proceed  depressions  begets Poverty.  o f argument One  link  type f i t s  does  not.  go r o u n d .  "societal  "frustration",  or diversion  i n war.  economic  growth  The f o r m e r a r g u m e n t s recessions or  breakdown",  "tension"  4 0  t h e power p o l i t i c s  from economic downturns,  through  "nonrealistic".  So we  "strain",  or " i n s t a b i l i t y " to  They o f t e n  t a k e c o n f l i c t t o be  That i s c o n f l i c t s  not occasioned by the r i v a l ends of the antagonists, b u t by t h e n e e d f o r t e n s i o n r e l e a s e o f a t l e a s t one o f them. In t h i s case, the choice of antagonists depends on determinants not d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o a c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e and i s n o t oriented toward the attainment of specific  4  0  As c i t e d i n George Clark, War and S o c i e t y i n the S e v e n t e e n t h C e n t u r y (Cambridge: A t The U n i v e r s i t y ~ P r e s s , 1958), p.134. Also see B l a i n e y , The C a u s e s Of War, pp.91-96, 256-257 f o r a discussion of Clark's essay.  that  60 results..'. satisfaction itself.** I agree  with  is  Coser's  d e r i v e d from the  aggressive  act  comments.  Knowledge g a i n e d from the study of n o n r e a l i s t i c conflict i s being applied to the f i e l d of i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s , overlooking the f a c t that conflicts in t h i s f i e l d are primarily r e a l i s t i c c o n f l i c t s o f power, i n t e r e s t s o r v a l u e s and t h a t n o n r e a l i s t i c e l e m e n t s w h i c h may be i n t e r m i n g l e d i n t h e s t r u g g l e a r e c o n t i n g e n t and p l a y , a t b e s t , a reinforcing r o l e . 4 2  Boulding's  concept  of " s t r a i n "  i s not  psychological,  d o e s h i s argument s t r e s s n o n - r e a l i s t i c relates  "the  conditions, cycle,"  4 3  sudden as  worsening  i n the  t o war.  in  depression  conflict, general  phase o f  H i s example i s t h e  but  nor he  too  economic a  business  depression  of  the  k n o c k e d down and  run  1930s. Viner, over "I  the  can  another  e c o n o m i s t who  has  w a l l s between a c a d e m i c f i e l d s ,  find,"  he  argues the  contrary.  writes,  no d i s t i n c t h i s t o r i c a l p a t t e r n o f i m p a c t o f mass unemployment o r o f the b u s i n e s s c y c l e on t h e problem of war e x c e p t t h a t c o u n t r i e s were more c o n s c i o u s of their strength, were l e s s preo c c u p i e d by i n t e r n a l t r o u b l e s , and were i n b e t t e r f i n a n c i a l s h a p e f o r war, i n t h e p r o s p e r i t y t h a n i n the d e p r e s s i o n phases of their cycles, and t h a t t h i s seems t o have been r e f l e c t e d i n t h e temper o f their foreign p o l i c i e s . 4 4  4 1  Lewis Coser, The F u n c t i o n s o f S o c i a l C o n f l i c t The F r e e P r e s s , 1956) , p.49,55.  4 2  Ibid-,  4  Kenneth B o u l d i n g , S t a b l e Peace A u s t i n : T e x a s P r e s s , 1978, p.. 73.  3  (New  York:  p.49. The  U n i v e r s i t y of  61 The l i n k s i n t h i s  power p o l i t i c s  and  i s , thereby,  r  t h e argument  be l e s s  a b l e and l e s s  s u c h a s war,  against  argument  limited.  inclined  r a t e s o f economic growth, c e t e r i s  more a d v a n t a g e o u s  one.  but  engagements,  were f a l t e r i n g .  paribus,  result  t h e n c e , t o war,  The. g e n e r a l  few  G r e a t power A would  t o seek c o s t l y  B i f t h e economy  a d v a n t a g e o u s power p o s i t i o n ;  are c r i s p  High  i n a more  t o make i t a  proposition  t o be  examined i s : P r o p o s i t i o n 5: A g r e a t power i s more l i k e l y t o become i n v o l v e d i n war when i t s r a t e o f economic g r o w t h i s h i g h r a t h e r t h a n low. The d i s t i n c t i o n s between  types of  participation  t y p e s o f p a r t i c i p a n t s s u g g e s t more s p e c i f i c Wars have a c t i v i s t following  and  non-activist  t h e b a l a n c e o f power  a r e t o be f e a r e d ,  i n war  and  propositions.  participants,  assumption that  the  and,  powerful  the p r o p o s i t i o n i s :  Proposition 6: Activist participation in i n t e r s t a t e war i s more l i k e l y than n o n - a c t i v i s t participation when a great power's rate of economic growth i s h i g h . F u t h e r m o r e , b e c a u s e one  type of opponent i s ,  more p o w e r f u l t h a n t h e o t h e r , would in  be  wars  more s i g n i f i c a n t between  in  g r e a t powers  the c o n d i t i o n wars between  by  definition,  o f t h e economy  great  powers  than  and n o n - g r e a t powers.  P r o p o s i t i o n 7: The a s s o c i a t i o n between a c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n i n t e r s t a t e war and h i g h growth r a t e s i s s t r o n g e r when t h e o p p o n e n t i s another g r e a t power and weaker when a g r e a t power a t t a c k s a n o n - g r e a t power.  Jacob Viner, "Peace As An E c o n o m i c P r o b l e m , " i n his I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c s : S t u d i e s ( G l e n c o e : The F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 5 1 ) , pp.262-263.  62 Where  the  activist  from  this  advantage economic  party  crude does  power not  growth  is  not  great  politics  suggest  should  a  any  matter  power,  calculus reason  at  a l l .  the  of  why  reasoning  relative  the  rate  of  Therefore:  P r o p o s i t i o n 8: There i s no a s s o c i a t i o n between economic growth i n a g r e a t power and n o n - a c t i v i s t i n v o l v e m e n t i n war w i t h a n o n - g r e a t power. The them  set  of  because  empirically politics  the  proportion  no  Each  remains  propositions from  the be  know  are  preceded  in  advance  of by  the  propositions,  conclusive occurred  in  of  "errors"  support  war  to  one  of  which,  if  the  economic  growth  the  power  the  plausible  power  If  against  non-activist  the  propositions  the  The  they  economy  high  rates  so  also  fluctuations  the  another rates  is  involvements  in  politics  calculus  and  which  would  prosperous  be  no  times,  the  to  incidences  of  economic  and  few  wars.  prompted  of  of  not them.  instances  of  of  to  a l l  Wars but  peace.  we There  capacity affirm, The  great  of  the  war.  The  of  predict  growth,  years  deny,  of  cannot,  many  to  set  limitations  not,  too is  and  explanation  do  are  therefore,  calculus  finding  be  however.  that  too  politics  of  powers,  plain:  are  power  many  high  any  individually.  activist  by  would  weak,  state  the  over  support,  coincidence  results.  them  may  the  to more  could  of  preceded  advantage  lend  each  war  an  pattern  would  than  non-great  has  a  instances  receive  Mere the  of  as  with  would  suggests  accurate,  power  same  wars  it  thinking  proportion great  propositions  of the  most  power  war  63 To  be  around,  made s t r o n g e r and  the  way  to  interactions  with t h i r d  themselves.  The  "depression , comes f r o m t h e  at  the  and  variables.  beginning of t h i s the  business cycles from  of  9/10  Kondratieffs  50  t o 60  s o r t s of  possibilities,  Schumpeter Kondratieff He  finds i t  difficulties  *  s  one  i n an e l e g a n t possible,  refer to  This  o f which  "barring  the  guatrain  15 t o  I will  few  of  cycles: of  20  40  years  and  offers a l l  pursue  here.  Juglar  and  capitalist  very  but  Students  profusion  Kitchin,  model o f  second  have K i t c h i n s  Kuznets of  the  The  many d i f f e r e n t  we  5  words  "cycles",  p e r i o d i c i t y open.  years.*  interweaves  vagueness of t h e  propositions.  subsection  years,  for  i n t e r a c t i o n s suggest  anonomyous a u t h o r o f  variation,  turned  search  "prosperity".  have i n d e n t i f i e d  months, J u g l a r s of  and  g u e s t i o n -of  seasonal  Two  comes f r o m t h e  the  have t o be  them a r o u n d i s t o  a l l i a n c e commitment  Boulding  they l e a v e  aside  first  propositions  turn  "recession",  1 1  Viner,  these  development.  cases i n  which  arise,"  Joseph Schumpeter, Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and S t a t i s t i c a l A n a l y s i s of the C a p i t a l i s t P r o c e s s v o l . 1 (New Y o r k : H c G r a w - H i l l , 1939)7 PP- 173-174; E r n e s t Mandel, L a t e C a p i t a l i s m (London: New L e f t , 1975); Moses Abramovitz7 "The N a t u r e and S i g n i f i c a n c e o f K u z n e t s C y c l e s , " i n R e a d i n g s In B u s i n e s s C y c l e s e d . R o b e r t Aaron G o r d o n and Lawrence R. K l e i n (Homewood: R i c h a r d D. I r w i n , 1 9 6 5 ) , p p i 5 7 9 - 6 4 5 ; N.D,. K o n d r a t i e f f , "The Long Waves i n E c o n o m i c L i f e . " An a b r i d g e d t r a n s l a t i o n f i r s t a p p e a r e d i n Review o f Economic S t a t i s t i c s 17, (November 1935), 105-115 and a complete E n g l i s h v e r s i o n appears i n the s p e c i a l i s s u e of Review, devoted t o C y c l e s and T r e n d s ( v o l . 2 ( S p r i n g 1979)7~519-562.  64 to count off, historically statistically, s i x Juglars to t h r e e K i t c h i n s t o a J u g l a r ... However,  to  as well as a Kondratieff  follow  the  courses of  with p r e c i s i o n over  the  h i s t o r y of each great  a huge r e s e a r c h  task,  far  one,  beyond  the  abilities  economist,  the  'dirty'  make t h e  task  durations  are  weather o r less  political  severe  scheme,  Kondratieff very all  the  wave, so  argument. o c c u r on  the  great are 4 6  the  time The by  long  For  the records  events such  and  as  the  difficulties  are  wave w h i c h , i n thought to  be  were a v a i l a b l e ,  historical  The  Schumpeter's  generate.  The  s p e a k , a b s o r b s t h e s e p r o b l e m s by i t s o v e r two  Moreover, f o r  " e x t e r n a l " and revolutions,  more  generations  Kondratieff intregal  Kondratieff  upswing of economic a c t i v i t y ,  wave c h a r a c t e r i z e d  Juglars  points, amplitudes  'external'  wave l u r c h e s  Wars and  and  power would  neophyte.  turning  Kondratieff  powers..  less  evidence  disturbances.  to  Kitchins  s e r i e s and  s h o r t e r c y c l e s are  nature;  events  his  with the  the  of t h i s  difficult.. affected  i f the  the  and  by  a  prevelance of  and  over  political to  his  concluded, the  phase  of  prosperity.  Therefore, P r o p o s i t i o n 9: R e l a t i o n s h i p s between h i g h r a t e s o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war v a r y w i t h the long term phases of economic e x p a n s i o n and contraction.  4 6  George Garvy, " K o n d r a t i e f f ' s T h e o r y Of Long C y c l e s , " The Review Of E c o n o m i c S t a t i s t i c s , 25, (November 1 9 4 3 ) , 203-220 p r o v i d e s a good d i s c u s s i o n of the controversy i n the S o v i e t Onion s u r r o u n d i n g K o n d r a t i e f f » s work. See a l s o R i c h a r d B* Day, "The T h e o r y of t h e Long C y c l e : K o n d r a t i e v , T r o t s k y , M a n d e l , " New L e f t Review, No. 99 ( S e p t e m b e r - O c t o b e r 1 9 7 6 ) , 67-82.  65 Turning to alliance commitments, that a  sluggish attribute  such as  I find it incongruous " n u m b e r of  alliance  c o m m i t m e n t s " could h a v e a temporally specific effect such as the outbreak of war. c o m m i t m e n t sa n d rate predict  Perhaps the conjunction of alliance of economic change will  properly from  the independent  enable us to  variable to the  dependent variables, rather than the other w a y around. Proposition 10: Great p o w e r participation in interstate w a r depends u p o n a combination of alliance c o m m i t m e n t s a n d high rates of economic growth* T h e open-endedness of this T oa d d  the n u m b e r of  alliance partners,  c o m m i t m e n t s exchanged to the phases increases  proposition is quite deliberate.  the rates of economic  of the Kondratieff immensely  the  types of g r o w t h a n d  w a v eu p o nw h i c h they ride  the possible  permutations seeking  association with the incidence a n d types of involvement in great p o w e r war.  O n c e again there is little to guide o n e in  sifting the logically for the theoretically reasonable. have n o specific arguments. to b em a d e m o r e specific or the performance of the  I  Proposition 10 is a n invitation to b e withdrawn depending u p o n  previous propositions.  not a m o r e specific Proposition  W h e t h e r or  10 supports the crude p o w e r  politics calculus remains to b e seen.  66 R e l a t i v e Power P o s i t i o n  3-3.3  According enhance t h e i r increasing  to  the balance  power  alliances  enemies w i t h bipolar  Bar  o f power  relative  t o one  national capabilities  the c a p a b i l i t i e s of defense  and  theories,  another  and  o r by  denying  non-aggression  pacts.  sovereign e n t i t i e s .  I f not,  to  Eguibalance,  between p o w e r - m a x i m i z i n g ,  by  and  by  securing  themselves  advantages  or m u l t i p o l a r , i s the e x p e c t e d  the i n t e r p l a y  internally  externally  some o t h e r s t a t e s to  states  with  potential whether  natural result  security  instability  o r war  of  conscious, i s to  be  expected. S t a b i l i t y w i l l i n c r e a s e as t h e p a r i t y i n power o f states increases. I f t h e r e were o n l y two s t a t e s , t h e r e w o u l d be g r e a t i n s t a b i l i t y u n l e s s t h e y were v e r y n e a r l y e g u a l i n power. The same would be t r u e i f a l l t h e s t a t e s had become p o l a r i z e d i n two rival alliances. And,  i f t h e r e were n o t  any  g r e a t power  alliances,  with a large number of states acting i n d e p e n d e n t l y , c o m p a r a t i v e e g u a l i t y o f power would t e n d t o augment t h e c a p a c i t y o f each to defend i t s e l f and s o t o i n c r e a s e s t a b i l i t y . * 7  *  7  B r i g h t , A S t u d y Of War, pp.755.. I n 1934 i n Geneva W r i g h t gave an i l l u s t r a t i o n , l a t e r p u b l i s h e d i n P u b l i c a t i o n s of the Graduate I n s t i t u t e of I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , Geneva, No.14. ( L o n d o n : Longmans, G r e e n and Company, 1935). Germany wants e g u a l i t y , and by t h a t s h e means, eventually, not o n l y an e g u a l i t y between her armaments and t h o s e o f France, b u t an e g u a l i t y between h e r and h e r a l l i e s on t h e one hand and F r a n c e and h e r a l l i e s on t h e o t h e r . I f there i s such e g u a l i t y t h a t each s i d e t h i n k s the p r o s p e c t s of r a p i d v i c t o r y s l i g h t , i t i s probable, other things being egual, t h a t the prospects o f war would be r e d u c e d . I t w i l l , of course, be s a i d t h a t w i t h such e g u a l i t y , w h i l e the p r o s p e c t s of German victory w o u l d be greater than the  67 The  debate  stable  over which  i s far  specific  less furious  i n the  l i t e r a t u r e than i t i s e l s e w h e r e . depends upon p a r i t y - .  The r o u g h  power t h e o r i s t s i s t h a t checked and  the  4 8  Furthermore,  balance of  Bipolar  consensus  dominant  o r b a l a n c e d by t h e o t h e r s ,  wage war,  configuration  among b a l a n c e o f  g r e a t power,  will  p r e s s i t s advantage  relative general  power  are  powerful.  power i s more powerful.  'undue a c c e s s i o n s o f s t r e n g t h ' ,  The p r e s u m p t i o n  power p o s i t i o n  unless  war i s a means t o k e e p o r d e r and  P r o p o s i t i o n 11: The p r e d o m i n a n t l i k e l y t o f i g h t than are the l e s s  dangerous,  power  or not, s t a b i l i t y  t o p r e s e r v e a s t a t u s quo f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e most  I n c r e a s e s i n power,  i s more  is  that  increases i n relative  p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r war and  position  make one more  are  decreases i n  vulnerable.  The  proposition i s :  P r o p o s i t i o n 12: I n c r e a s e s r a t h e r t h a n d e c r e a s e s i n a g r e a t power's r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n a r e more l i k e l y t o l e a d i t s i n v o l v e m e n t i n war.  V e r s a i l l e s disarmament p r o v i s i o n s ; t h a t Germany, a n x i o u s f o r a war o f r e v e n g e w i l l t a k e t h e f i e l d e v e n t h o u g h t h e p r o s p e c t s o f v i c t o r y a r e no more than even. But t h a t d e n i e s t h e whole t h e s i s t h a t peace c a n be promoted by a stable military equilibrium (57-58). 4  8  The two p r i n c i p a l o p p o s i n g statements a r e Kenneth Waltz, "The S t a b i l i t y o f a B i p o l a r W o r l d , " D a e d a l u s , 93 (Summer 1964), 881-909 and D e u t s c h and S i n g e r , " M u l t i p o l a r Power S y s t e m s and I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a b i l i t y , " World P o l i t i c s , 16 (1964), 390-406, Richard Rosecrance, "Bipolarity, Multipolarity aad t h e F u t u r e , " Journal of Conflict R e s o l u t i o n , 10 ( 1 9 6 6 ) , 314-327, c r i t i z e s b o t h and seek t h e ~ m i d d l e g r o u n d w i t h a model o f " b i - m u l t i p o l a r i t y " .  68 Following  the  d i s t i n c t i o n s between t y p e s  and  types  of p a r t i c i p a n t s ,  The  first  specification i s :  of p a r t i c i p a t i o n  P r o p o s i t i o n 12 may  be  specified.  P r o p o s i t i o n 13: A c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war i s more l i k e l y than n o n - a c t i v i s t involvement to f o l l o w an increase i n a great power's r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n . The  'overgrown power  s w a l l o w s up t h e l i t t l e  ones near at  hand' b u t i f t h e o p p o n e n t i s l a r g e , n o t l i t t l e , relative  power p o s i t i o n a r e more n e c e s s a r y .  increases i n  Following  the  c r u d e power p o l i t i c s c a l c u l u s , t h e s e c o n d s p e c i f i c a t i o n i s : P r o p o s i t i o n 14: The a s s o c i a t i o n between a c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war and i n c r e a s e s in relative power p o s i t i o n i s s t r o n g e r when a g r e a t power attacks another g r e a t power and weaker when t h e t a r g e t i s a n o n - g r e a t power. If  a g r e a t power i s t h e t a r g e t  great  power s e e k s t o p r e s e r v e  o f a n o n - g r e a t power o r i f a t h e s t a t u s quo c o n t r a r y  interest  of a non-great  position  o f t h e g r e a t power would  gap  t o the  power, i n c r e a s e s o r d e c r e a s e s i n t h e be l e s s r e l e v a n t  than the  i n the l e v e l s of c a p a b i l i t i e s . P r o p o s i t i o n 15: T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e i s no a s s o c i a t i o n between c h a n g e s i n r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n and n o n - a c t i v i s t i n v o l v e m e n t i n war with a non-great power.  Like  Propositions  5 through  P r o p o s i t i o n s i s t o deny. the  evidence  i s t o the  argument would be  8,  the  ability  of  these  They c a n n o t p r e d i c t t o war b u t i f contrary,  undercut.  t h e b a s i c power  politics  69 The  assumption  the  result  for  one,  parity has  of  behind  imbalance;  asserts  and  often  these  peace been  the  propositions  parity  provides  contrary-  "appears  to  claimed."  He  be  The  i s that  peace.  war  is  Organski,  r e l a t i o n s h i p between  exactly  the  opposite  of  what  continues:  Indeed, i t i s not even l o g i c a l Nations are r e l u c t a n t to f i g h t unless they b e l i e v e they have a good chance of w i n n i n g , but t h i s i s t r u e f o r both s i d e s o n l y when t h e t w o are f a i r l y evenly matched o r , a t l e a s t , when t h e y b e l i e v e t h e y a r e . Thus, a b a l a n c e o f p o w e r i n c r e a s e s t h e c h a n c e s o f war. A p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f p o w e r on one s i d e , on t h e other hand, i n c r e a s e s the chances of peace, f o r the g r e a t l y s t r o n g e r s i d e need n o t f i g h t at a l l to get what i t w a n t s , w h i l e the weaker s i d e would be p l a i n l y f o o l i s h to attempt to b a t t l e f o r what i t wants. * 9  His  own  logic  i s not  unassailable.  participation,  each  and,  stronger  while  wants,  that  obvious. only  to  states  the i t  and  activist  will  Many count  state  note  11:3.  Organski's  limited  to  discuss  his  states  number  that  party.  need  shrink  weaker the  the  Recall  handling  wars  explanation  of  upon  i t to  extend  *  9  World  Politics,  p.294-  not  consent fight  from may great  join  in  employing  force  have  i n , but  caved  power  of  great great  powers  —  wars  was  i s f a r more  include  to  alliance  obtain  contents  'major'  with  to  power  between  great  powers.  not  great  argument  the  and  of  the  wars i n v o l v i n g a l l i t  need  Unlike  i s  we  the  II:2  and  powers.  a l l wars  need  smaller  compelling  and  not  always  Tables  power  war  what i t  with  not  a  I wars —  then  when will those  elaborate  between  great  70 3»3.4  Rank and War between Great Powers  Industrialization, and, hence,  Organski a r g u e s ,  r e l a t i o n s between them.  balance of power  jumble focuses  transformed s t a t e s  His a l t e r n a t i v e  on the  different  p o i n t s and d i f f e r e n t i a l r a t e s of growth. categories first great  of s t a t e s :  and i t s a l l i e s powers  which  dissatisfied"); and  the great {the  accepting,  to  Organski.  (the  The powerful  four  and  the  and  and l a s t ,  "weak  dissatisfied,  the  " p r i v i l e g e of  and seeks to r e p l a c e  "One c o u l d almost say that  a c h a l l e n g e r guarantees  a  major war,"  the the  writes  5 0  Others have made s i m i l a r c a s e s . to pick a strange bedfellow last  "powerful  phrase,  challenges  dominant s t a t u s guo power. r i s e of such  This y i e l d s  the "weak and s a t i s f i e d " :  h i s t o r i c backwardness",  starting  "powerful and s a t i s f i e d " ) ;  use T r o t s k y ' s  the  power which i n d u s t r i a l i z e d  followed  dissatisfied"-.  to  pages of h i s t r a c t  Lenin,  for example and  f o r O r g a n s k i , argued t h i s i n the  on I m p e r i a l i s m .  Finance c a p i t a l and the t r u s t s do not d i m i n i s h but i n c r e a s e the d i f f e r e n c e s i n the r a t e of growth of the v a r i o u s p a r t s of the world economy. Once the r e l a t i o n o f f o r c e s i s changed, what other s o l u t i o n of the c o n t r a d i c t i o n s can be found under c a p i t a l i s m than t h a t of f o r c e .  so world P o l i t i c s , p.361. Elman S e r v i c e puts the "power t r a n s i t i o n " argument upon a grander s c a l e . See h i s essay "The Law of E v o l u t i o n a r y P o t e n t i a l , " from which I took T r o t s k y ' s p h r a s e , i n E v o l u t i o n and C u l t u r e , e d . Marshall D. S a h l i n s and Elman RS e r v i c e (Ann Arbor: The U n i v e r s i t y o f Michigan P r e s s , 1960) , pp.93-122.  71 Any o t h e r b a s i s u n d e r c a p i t a l i s m f o r the d i v i s i o n of spheres of i n f l u e n c e , of i n t e r e s t s , of c o l o n i e s , e t c ; , t h a n a c a l c u l a t i o n of the s t r e n g t h of the p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the d i v i s i o n , t h e i r g e n e r a l economic, f i n a n c i a l , m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h , e t c . , is inconceivable-. And the s t r e n g t h of these p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e d i v i s i o n d o e s not change t o an equal degree, f o r the even development... of c o u n t r i e s i s i m p o s s i b l e under c a p i t a l i s m . 5 1  With two poised  coalitions,  opposite  balance  each  and  parity.  as  the  and  the  becomes more a p t a s  advantages are  the  magnified  equal  sum  tendency t o over-compensate,  a margin  the  of e r r o r ,  normal i n c i d e n c e s i n t o c r i s e s and  leads  crises  " i s most  dissatisfied  challenger  power o f t h o s e who Lenin  wars,  and  and  increase likely and  Organski are  for  the  5  Organski,  World  Compare w i t h  Politics,  George  or  importance  competition in  Major  primarily  for The  guickly  begins to quo.  zero  to allow  power o f  status  O r g a n s k i major wars a r e  V. I. Lenin, Imperialism, Capitalism. (Moscow: F o r e i g n n. d . ) , pp.165, 205.  5 3  the  concerned  sides  arms r a c e .  i n danger.  its allies  5 1  2  i n t o an  when  support  two  becomes d e f i n e d  of i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s  therefore,  the  easily  pan  position  The  between r e l a t i v e l y t e r m s , and  in  relative  t h e y become l e s s p o s s i b l e . coalitions  simple  in capabilities  more p r e c i s e c a l c u l a t i o n s o f  become c r u c i a l ,  t h 3 dissatisfied,  image o f  Small increments  potential diplomatic and,  satisfied  other,  i s suitable  approach  the  turn war,  the approximate  1 1 5 2  with  major  wars between  two  The H i g h e s t Stage of L a n g u a g e s P u b l i s h i n g House,  p.370.  M o d e l s k i ' s argument. He  declares  that  72  international  orders.  5 3  On  top l i e  them l i e t h e d i s s a t s f i e d Industrialization, vertical  Each  argues  mobility,  but  the s a t i s f i e d  under  i s fixed i n composition.  Organski,  severely  and  opened a v e n u e s f o r  reduced  horizontal  mobility.  Nations are not free to shift from one i n t e r n a t i o n a l order t o another without s e r i o u s i n t e r n a l changes involving usually a change i n economic systems, a change i n predominant c l a s s , a change i n t h e p o l i t i c a l and a change i n i d e o l o g y . Great or s m a l l , t h e i r whole way o f l i f e i s g e a r e d t o the o r d e r t o which they b e l o n g . * 5  Perhaps  this  was  t h e c a s e a t the time  forward  h i s "power t r a n s i t i o n "  d e s c r i p t i o n i s n o t an a p t one War  or s i n c e t h a t  transition agree  t o beg  are those  is  F,  E.  G and G by  H allies  F thereby s a t i s f i e d  answer i s n o t c l e a r  To  t o me.  I,  how  answer is,  initials  means o f war  Add  Once do  that I  we we the  think,  T a k e , f o r example,  H whose  and  the  to the Cold  1 i s satisfied,  with  but  problem.  f a v o u r t h e s t a t u s guo  identities.  approaches  why  E,  put  i t h o b b l e s t h e power  the guestion t o a large extent-  conceal t h e i r  Now  who  first  (1958),  world p r i o r  unnecessary  g r e a t power r a n k e d  g r e a t powers  F and  i n the  which o t h e r s t a t e s a r e s a t i s f i e d ?  satisfied  four  hypothesis  Furthermore,  argument w i t h an  that the  decide  time.  Organski  G and  do  surpasses H  F allies  H dissatisfied? another  not  great  with  and E.  The power.  " g l o b a l wars c o n s t i t u t e a s e p a r a t e c l a s s . . . a s p e c i e s of c o n f l i c t " and suggests that we compare g l o b a l wars only with each o t h e r , r a t h e r than swamp them " i n l o n g e r l i s t s of l e s s homogenous e v e n t s . " See h i s "War and the Great Powers." 5  4  World P o l i t i c s ,  p.354..  73  What i f I a l l i e s w i t h G and o f E and  F?  I,  F and  H and  then changes t o the s i d e  H s e e k t o a d v a n c e , and  t h e i r c h o i c e o f p a r t n e r s need n o t  be,  and  the reason  more o f t e n t h a n Defining F  not i s n o t , a consequence o f i n d u s t r i a l growthand  I  as s a t i s f i e d  because they a l l y  power g a i n s n o t h i n g f o r t h e t h e o r y  will  great also  illustrate,  hobble.  Some b a l a n c e Organski  as I s a i d ,  Ockam's r a z o r , a s I  r e s t r i c t s i t s range. cuts the  w i t h the dominant and,  for  o f power t h e o r i s t s  as O r g a n s k i  argue from  suggests  a r e n o t as  they a r e .  f a r from  Morgenthau does  'eguibalance' t o ' u n c e r t a i n t y ' t o 'peace', but  he  writes: a l l n a t i o n s must a l w a y s be a f r a i d t h a t t h e i r own m i s c a l c u l a t i o n s and t h e power i n c r e a s e s o f o t h e r nations m i g h t add up t o an i n f e r i o r i t y for themselves which t h e y must a t a l l c o s t s a v o i d Hence a l l n a t i o n s who h a v e g a i n e d an a p p a r e n t edge over t h e i r competitors tend to consolidate that a d v a n t a g e and use i t f o r c h a n g i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f power p e r m a n e n t l y i n t h e i r f a v o r . 5 5  The  edge one  actual  as  h o l d s over material  the  o t h e r may  capabilities  become  concomitantly, the e l u s i v e g u a l i t a t i v e as d i p l o m a t i c s k i l l ,  citizen  p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n become making c a l c u l u s .  This i s  prominent  5 5  Politics  military in  especially true  visible.  Among N a t i o n s , p . 2 0 2 .  egual  than  and,  a s p e c t s o f power  morale,  s i t u a t i o n s where a l l i a n c e s a r e many are  be more a p p a r e n t  and  the of  elan  such  and  decisionbipolar  both of t h e i r  faces  Alliances, uncertainty doing of  so,  which  side  capabilities from  form  of  the  crude  the  must  problem  of  sum  can  parity  to  know) ,  but  they  as  calculations.  Iifeblood guesses  the  and  Morgenthau, Simmel, puts  the  that the  rightly  preoccuppied  with  .closer,  of  of  of  essence  of  dubbed  "a  more war  and  and  nations,  can  be  clearly  of  we  a  need  7  to  finer  is  of  the  series  the  of in  precision  according power.  those  very  only  who  to  Georg paradox," are  international relations.  The most effective prereguisite for preventing struggle, the e x a c t knowledge o f the c o m p a r a t i v e strength of t h e two parties, i s very often a t t a i n a b l e o n l y by t h e a c t u a l f i g h t i n g out of the conflict. 5  are  c a l c u l a t i o n of  ascertained  of  the  very  variety  sociological  than  a  demand  i s ,  balance  to  coalitions  which  between  lumps.  capabilities  only  becomes a  available  master  two  "Rational  power  the  two  i s a l l that  contradiction is  the  question  weights  provides  in  non-material  into  statesmen  which  the  and  the  and,  national  algorithm  several  which  argument  that  to  proper  whether  (and  balance  This  5 6  aggregated  possible.  correctness  retrospect."  material  the  reduce  creates,  answers  coalition  i s no  are  strength  of  the  required  There  answers  be  tell  draw  the  adding  f o r each  closer  relative  in  assigning  power,  One  alliances,  question  The  states  drawing  the  who/whom  uncertainty  state  index.  reasonable  defense  i s stronger.  components of to  the  raise  which  Aside  particularly  75 Just  as  themselves wage war group  the  great  powers,  from  other  states  successfully,  distinguished.  opportunities superiority loser. over  so  to  of  Aside "no  specific  Franco-Prussian strength" foremost  such  group,  the are  the  order  as  great by  power.  ability within  powers  the  they  status may  be  characterizes  replaced  War  "was  France  to the  provide  demonstrating  diminishing  Taylor  and  gradations  Franco-Prussian  Prussia  distinguish  capacity  opportunities,  The  which  continental  and  object"  War.  after  too  rank  winner  from  by  a  Wars between  change  the  as  a as  the of  the  fought the test  of  the  5 8  Who i s s t r o n g e r a n d who i s weaker? Who will get h i s way a n d who will have to g i v e in? Such questions...lead to rank l i s t s — s u c h as the rankings of players in tennis or chess tournaments, of baseball clubs i n the world series, of chickens i n the peck order of the chicken yard, and o f g r e a t powers i n world politics. The f e w e r t h e r e c e n t a c t u a l e n c o u n t e r s t h a t have occurred,..the larger the e x t e n t to which such rank l i s t s m u s t be b u i l t up from hypotheses based upon the p a s t performances and present or expected resources of the contestants. 5 9  5  7  The c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n o f Simmel i s Lewis C o s e r ' s and i s from h i s "The D y s f u n c t i o n s of M i l i t a r y Secrecy," in C o n t i n u i t i e s i n t h e S t u d y o f S o c i a l C o n f l i c t e d . L e w i s A. C o s e r , (New York: The F r e e ~ P r e s s , 1967), p.247, The quotation i s cited i n C o s e r ' s The F u n c t i o n s Of Social Conflict, p.133. B l a i n e y i n h i s e x c e l l e n t book. The Causes o f War also follows Simmel t h r o u g h Coser's explications. See i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e C h a p t e r " T h e Abacus o f Power". Taylor,  5  K a r l W. D e u t s c h , The A n a l y s i s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l (Englewood C l i f f s ^ P r e n t i c e - H a l l J 1968), p.22.  9  The  Struggle  f o r Mastery  in  Europe,  p.217.  se  Relations  76 With t h e it  is  "breakout  of peace",  at other times  large.  As t h e  diminish,  the  when d i s p a r i t i e s i n  breakout rank  o f peace r e c e d e s  order i s blurred.  c o m p e t i t i v e and  competition  rising  g r e a t power,  adjacent  unacceptable iirst  and  position,  queue.  "War  must be  here,  excludes  War  between two  they  need n o t  i n time  A and  position,  and  which  terms of  power p o s i t i o n alliance  national  occur  between any  two  and  A and  B are  in relative  as  gaps  rapidly T i e s are  can  occupy down  the  peace  is  the  for  alliances;  moreover,  one  add.  closer  p.  be  would e x p e c t  B as  war the  powerful powerful.  compensated A and  B to  <>  G,. B l a i n e y , The  6i  Compare t h i s w i t h t h e p r e d i c t i o n s of c o a l i t i o n formation i n T. Caplow, Two A g a i n s t One: Coalitions i n Triads (Englewood C l i f f s : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1968), pp.21-40, e s p . Figure3:1; and M o r t o n Kaplan's r u l e s of conduct in a " b a l a n c e o f power" system i n h i s System and P r o c e s s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s (New Y o r k : John W i l e y , 1957) , p.23. The f o u r t h r u l e o f a b a l a n c e o f power s y s t e m i s :  6  C a u s e s o f War,  a more  to t h e l e s s  are to  61  capabilities.  powers A and  more w o r r i s o m e  on  individual  partners could  power  the  measurement."  probable  great  power p o s i t i o n  as  are  t o t h e b a l a n c i n g a r g u m e n t s , on t h e o t h e r hand,  Declines with  a  so on  rough a g r e e m e n t a b o u t  weight  and  measurement;  n a r r o w s , f o r t h e l a r g e gaps between C,  state,  B,  f o r o n l y one  g r e a t powers i s most  become i n  According  gap  the  capability  becomes z e r o sum.  relative  clear  Ordinal position i s  i s a d i s p u t e about  t h e o t h e r hand marks a  and  between  broken,  the second  itself  Note t h a t ,  t h e r a c k o r d e r i s as  122.  77  ally  i n order  Alliances partners the  by  t o check are  c o n s t r a i n the two  them,  war  augment by  occur.  individual  adjacently  6 1  a means t o  joining  group s h o u l d  C.  c a p a b i l i t i e s of  s u b s u m i n g the  individual  Such c o a l i t i o n s  bargaining  power,  r a n k e d g r e a t powers  a l l the  may and  i s stronger  into  detract  and  which of  the  and  which i s  weaker i s what t h e c o n f l i c t between them i s a l l a b o u t . great  powers  seek t o  assumption holds Each t h e r e f o r e itself  with  whether  smaller, less  allies  Neither  a t t e m p t s t o commit C, a war the  itself  committed  power, position  impossible;  on  6 downwards  would have  a great  other.  unless  they  are  to intervene.  mutual i n t e r e s t  in isolating  interference fight."  of the  A "fair  ally  to  I f great  into  4,  the to  thereby,  and/or  Moreover, their  gain  from both,  one  from  letting  dominant  great  threaten i t s other  A and  from  i n guaranteeing are  great  B have a  competition  i n which they  will  non-great  t o g a i n by  r a n k s need n o t  power  each  to deter  I f C i s the  h i g h e r - u p s and  f i g h t " i s one  that i s ,  anything  indecisive  powers t h r e a t e n  not.  power s u p e r i o r t o them  i n advance. lower  this  c o a l i t i o n or  position  C would h a v e l i t t l e  sguabbles i n the  and  partners.  A at rank  between them, and,  attacking be  up  power,  are i n a  powerful  from rank  power s t r a t u m .  to e n t e r  they  p r e f e r s the  B i n rank 5 i s drawing seek out  maximize t h e i r  All  the  a  the "fair  leading  " A c t t o o p p o s e any c o a l i t i o n o r s i n g l e a c t o r which t e n d s t o assume a p o s i t i o n o f p r e p o n d e r a n c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o the r e s t of the system." I do n o t e x p e c t i t t o be 'obeyed.'  78  contenders.  I f alliances  a r e made w i t h  higher  up, t h e y  should  p r o v e t o be i n d e c i s i v e .  a r e commitments t o k e e p c l e a r  Defense a l l i a n c e s , with  those  smaller  from n a t i o n a l occurs.  on t h e o t h e r  Smaller  may p r o v e  power h i e r a r c h y  the l a r g e r the  whole p e c k i n g and  order.  second ranked  they  will  always  coalitions—and  great  be dominant  f o r c e s those  o f war most p r o b a b l e .  The  over  powers f i g h t  parity  i n power  position.  —  respective  i n rank  great  positions 1  powers.  i n calculating  With  advantage,  w h i c h make t h e e m p i r i c a l t i m i n g o f a major  war i s  power p o s i t i o n s o f t h e c o a l i t i o n s the  of the matter.  great  ranked  o f war between t h e f i r s t  other  and t h e numerous c r i s e s  ranked  adjacently  f o rd i s r u p t i o n of the  those  a l l i a n c e s come d i f f i c u l t i e s  at the root  on t h e  below t o one s i d e o r t h e o t h e r .  t o a l l i a n c e s with  i n f l u e n c e d by t h e r e l a t i v e  is  are  Theirs i s a  within their  2 leads  even though t h e d i s p u t e  war  powers f o r c e s them t o s e e k a l l i e s  and  test  when  b e c a u s e war opens  side.  between  The p r o s p e c t  n a r r o w i n g o f t h e gap between  bipolarity  arranged  The f a r t h e r up t h e g r e a t  potential  The  those  t h e war  o f s k i d d i n g downwards, i f  choice.  the competition  powers  does n o t d e t r a c t  i f they  on t h e w i n n i n g  prudent, not a r a p a c i o u s ,  unless  may be  allies  upward m o b i l i t y ,  neighbours are  great  beneficial  states are w i l l i n g  v i c t o r i o u s s i d e , and p o s s i b i l i t i e s  pairs i s ,  hand,  s t a t e s whose c o o p e r a t i o n  power and  opportunities f o r  their  those  each  r a n k s o f t h e most  More g e n e r a l l y , other  when  they  powerful  adjacently approach  79 Thus f a r i n neglected land,  t h i s discussion of great  geography  —  physical  s e a and l o c a t i o n .  suggested  power  b a r r i e r s and  In t h e Sprouts'  as the p o l i s h e d  For  the adjacent  r a n k argument,  in:  t h e room becomes a c o r r i d o r , a t r a c k .  meets a n o t h e r ,  neglect  interaction by  social In  no  i s no s m a l l  I have  argument  or f r i c t i o n ,  matter:  As one g r e a t  adjacent  rank  other:  war  and p a r i t y p r e s e r v e s leads  according  t o war and  peace,  of  6 3  s p a c e where t h e r e a r e balance  argument a r e  t o the former,  behind,  are structured  The p r e d i c t i o n s o f one a r e o p p o s i t e  the  power  o f the l o s e r .  or i l l ,  common  6 2  are pulled  opportunities  proximities.  the  room."  the loser f a l l s  space, t h e pure s o c i a l  and t h e  distinct.  o f an empty  the side walls  between s t a t e s , f o r good  the ideal  parity  words,  advances t o a rank i n f r o n t  and g e o g r a p h i c a l  barriers  floor  blows a r e exchanged;  the winner  This  distances,  " t h e i n t e r p l a y o f p u p p e t s upon a s t a g e as b a r e and  undifferentiated  and  war I have  o f power clearly t o those of  preponderance  according  to the latter,  preponderance to peace.  consider  t h e two a r g u m e n t s on  the ground —  space —  some d i f f e r e n c e s become b l u r r e d .  leads to  When we  in geopolitical  6 2  H a r o l d and M a g a r e t S p r o u t , An E c o l o g i c a l P a r a d i g m f o r t h e Study, o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , R e s e a r c h Monograph No.30, Center of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Studies (Princeton: P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , March 1968), p.5.  6  F o r e x a m p l e s , s e e t h e s t u d i e s o f t h e f r e g u e n c y o f war and t h e numbers o f n e i g h b o u r s . They i n c l u d e : Richardson, S t a t i s t i c s o f Deadly Q u a r r e l s , pp.290-291 a n d James P a u l Wesley, " F r e g u e n c y o f Wars and G e o g r a p h i c a l Opportuniy," J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , 6 (1962), 387-389.  3  80 Consider with  some  power no  distance  argument  war.  its  most  there  to  vulnerable  powerful  capabilities  state  i s t o be f e a r e d  rank  i n  Stability  and geographic but distance  would  o f power  i n the  of  predict  argument  to the capacity system  i s a  to  resist  function of  seperation. erodes  states  the balance  argument  proportion  government  neighbor."  power  Both  t h e balance  to increase  a r e two u n e q u a l  them.  and t h e a d j a c e n t  tends  t h e most  where  i n between  According  "stability of  the situation  The  strong  strength. * 6  The g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e a p p l i e s t h a t each party can be s u p p o s e d t o b e a t h i s maximum p o w e r a t home ( t h i s may b e a n a r e a r a t h e r t h a n a p o i n t ) b u t t h a t h i s c o m p e t i t i v e power, i n t h e s e n s e o f h i s a b i l i t y to dominate another, declines t h e f a r t h e r from home h e o p e r a t e s . This i s the great p r i n c i p l e of the f u r t h e r t h e weaker. T h e amount by w h i c h t h e c o m p e t i t i v e power o f a party diminishes per mile movement away f r o m home i s t h e l o s s o f power gradient. 6 5  On  the other  rank  would  would  be  Now states of  6  *  6  5  n o t be a s o u r c e  t o the adjacent  of c o n f l i c t  rank  argument,  and, t h e r e f o r e ,  war  unlikely. the situation  seperated  b y some  eguality  argument  there  —  n o t be t h e  o f war —  the  Quincy Wright, pp.952-956. Kenneth Boulding, (New York: Harper  where  distance. would  and s e p e r a t i o n  would  outcome  according  consider  power  peace  hand,  there  According  be p e a c e .  defender  A Study  Of  two  to the  Both  are satisfied. result  are  of uncertainty win.  War,  Appendix  balance  conditions  Note  would  egual  Any  however  —  that  about the attacker's  XXIX a n d  C o n f l i c t and D e f e n s e : A General S Row, 1 9 6 2 ) , pp,.78-79-  Theory  81 combative  power  knowledge  of  would  the  outcome,  peace.  According  position  is  .a  to  source  outcome  i f war  With  uncertainty  no  war. in  There  the  were  would  nether  argument  be  the  of  a  Distances, very  relevant. interplay  of  not  have  "War  can  be  other  with  a  with  technologies.  helpful  theories  do  not  argument,  war  as  war, the  rank of  the  there  ground, the  matter  states  the  measure.  would  be  rather  adjacent  of  apart  reduce  as  the 6 7  6  6  and  can se  vary  than  rank  and  be  that trend  general  men  throwing  things  and  distance  has  of  the  Proposition  the  i s  clear. at  each  become of  obvious 16.  not  interplay  the  Corollaries  gauged  are  with  transportation costs  when e v a l u a t i n g  less  killing will  Suitable  exist,  Conflict  no  geography-  per  gradients  geography  intent,"  as  prove  preserves  uncertainty  line,  a  Only  roughly  important new  and  metric.  men  On  the  proposition.  strength  malicious  occur,  physical distances  of  defined  number  keep  technology  does  outcome o f  simply  but  Loss  to  and  Non-separated g r e a t powers f i g h t p a r i t y i n power c a p a b i l i t i e s .  example,  accurately,  leads  following  i s not  for  a  to  rank and  standoff.  of  P r o p o s i t i o n 16: as they a p p r o a c h Seperation  conflict  the  distance  were  adjacent  occur  of  over  i f war  the  to  world  yields  diminish  6  6  Boulding,  And  Defense,  p.266,  6  7  After reading M a r t i n Van Creveld's fascinating book, S u p p l y i n g War: L o g i s t i c s from W a l l e n s t e i n to Patton (Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1977), the g e n e r a l t r e n d i s no l o n g e r clear.  82 Sprout  and  G e q p o l i t i k and to  Sprout  provide  a  sustained c r i t i q u e  of those t h e o r i s t s who,  geopolitical  advocates,  c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and  use  do provide "ecological  paradigm" (2)  is  "environed  a u s e f u l device with which  composed and  the of  of (3)  Blunt as i t i s ,  Sprouts their  (1) "entity-  this triad i s  to r e c o n n o i t e r the  propositions  i n Table 111:2. 111:2  Those p r o p o s i t i o n s which secure points  attached  of the t r i a d  more  e l a b o r a t i o n s per se.  Reasonableness variables  point  i n the  or  f o r example,  triad.  The  P r o p o s i t i o n s 6 through  8,  c a l c u l u s of r e l a t i o n s between s t a t e s  but the r a t e of economic growth  remains an a t t r i b u t e of  i n d i v i d u a l great  power and a t t r i b u t e s  e x p l a i n peace..  Indeed,  s p e c i f i c a t i o n s make the  by  b r i n g i n g i n the 5,  ecological  or  than those  or s p e c i f i c a t i o n s  Propositions  s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of P r o p o s i t i o n 5, are based upon a crude  to but one  i s enhanced not  I t i s enhanced by  r e l a t i o n s between s t a t e s . one  themselves  are l e s s reasonable  to a l l t h r e e .  a d d i t i o n of  touches  The base  entity",  Table  the  metaphorically.  or a theory,  a triad  environment i n t e r r e l a t i o n s . "  two  geographical  s p a t i a l concepts only  the proper p e r s p e c t i v e .  "environment",  listed  perhaps i n r e a c t i o n  eschew  Although they do not o f f e r a metric  of  while,  of s t a t e s  i n one  sense,  do  an  not  the  general argument more p r e c i s e ,  they  82 a  T a b l e 111:2 Propositions  Concerning  The I n c i d e n c e o f G r e a t Power War To Ee T e s t e d .  Interstate  P r o p o s i t i o n 1) The more a l l i e s , t h e more l i k e l y that a great power will become involved in i n t e r - s t a t e war. P r o p o s i t i o n 2) The more n o n - g r e a t power t h e more l i k e l y t h a t a g r e a t power will i n v o l v e d i n i n t e r - s t a t e war.  allies, become  Proposition 3) Defense commitments deter. Non-defense commitments a r e more l i k e l y than d e f e n s e commitments t o l e a d t o n o n - a c t i v i s t war. Proposition 4) Non-defense c c i i i t m e n t s to n o n - g r e a t p o w e r s a r e more l i k e l y than defense c o m m i t m e n t s t o l e a d t o n o n - a c t i v i s t war. P r o p o s i t i o n 5) G r e a t power w a r s a r e most l i k e l y t o o c c u r when t h e r a t e o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i s high r a t h e r t h a n when i t i s l o w . Proposition 6) Activist participation in i n t e r s t a t e war i s more l i k e l y than n o n - a c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n when t h e r a t e o f economic growth i s high. P r o p o s i t i o n 7) The a s s o c i a t i o n between a c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n i n t e r s t a t e war and h i g h g r o w t h r a t e s i s s t r o n g e r when t h e o p p o n e n t i s a n o t h e r g r e a t p o w e r a n d w e a k e r when a g r e a t power a t t a c k s a n o n - g r e a t power. P r o p o s i t i o n 8) T h e r e i s no a s s o c i a t i o n b e t w e e n e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i n a g r e a t p o w e r and n o n - a c t i v i s t i n v o l v e m e n t i n war w i t h a n o n - g r e a t p o w e r . P r o p o s i t i o n 9) E e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n h i g h r a t e s c f economic growth and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war v a r y w i t h the long term phases o f economic e x p a n s i o n and contraction. P r o p o s i t i o n 10) G r e a t power participationi n i n t e r s t a t e war d e p e n d s upon a c o m b i n a t i o n o f a l l i a n c e commitments and h i g h r a t e s of economic growth.  P r o p o s i t i o n 11) The p r e d o m i n a n t power i s more l i k e l y t o f i g h t than are the l e s s powerful. P r o p o s i t i o n 12) I n c r e a s e s r a t h e r t h a n d e c r e a s e s i n r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n a r e more l i k e l y t o l e a d t o war. P r o p o s i t i o n 13) A c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war i s more l i k e l y than n o n - a c t i v i s t involvement to f o l l o w an i n c r e a s e i n r e l a t i v e p o w e r p o s i t i o n . P r o p o s i t i o n 14) The a s s o c i a t i o n b e t w e e n a c t i v i s t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n war and i n c r e a s e s i n r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n i s s t r o n g e r when a g r e a t p o w e r attacks another g r e a t power a n d w e a k e r when t h e t a r g e t i s a n o n - g r e a t power. P r o p o s i t i o n 15) T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e i s no a s s o c i a t i o n between c h a n g e s i n r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n and n o n - a c t i v i s t i n v o l v e m e n t i n war with a non-great power. P r o p o s i t i o n 16: as they approach  Non-separated g r e a t powers f i g h t p a r i t y i n power c a p a b i l i t i e s .  82 b  83 leave  many  reduces unlike  the the  explanation and  more  times  already  power  points  —  peace  be  between  argument  of  and  relevant  Chapter  like  IV-  when  empirical  Proposition  16,  offers  i n power  an  capabilities  the contrary  the  balance  relations  ecological  international  national  novel  each  and  international  territorial as  wars.  f o r because  war.  essentials,  inter  emerges  to the  —  commonplace:  about  of  a l l three  argument,  i s about  sovereign  commonplace fitted  rank  unaccounted  predominance  barriers  a l l save  to the  should  number  of  argument, of  small  touches  adjacent  stripped  peace  others,  geopolitical The  of  relations  and,  perspective  relations —  and  The  ecological  literature.  i s  relations  organizations. the  of  triad  This  i s  i s the  LEAF 84 OMITTED  Chapter A  The  REVIEW  arguments  quantitatively provide  a  Some o f  the  then  the  Most  of  the  sustenance  from  studies  rest  upon  of  the  particular  not-  empirical  these  balance  studies  the  states  order  mesh  unit to  precludes  capturing  variables  at  the  of  the  level  will  describe  of  power  studies  propositions.  to  individual  general  of  alliances,  position  problems  which  power  of  propositions are  unable which the  to  the  literature  concerning  compose  us the  permissible  aggregating  the  r e l a t i o n s h i p s at  finer  theoretical  Although  tell  much  - 85 -  If  they  state at a l l  system.  The  inferences.  attributes  the  system  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between states.  of  war.  power  system.  and  INVOLUTION  draw  balance  rates  and  METHODOLOGICAL  studies  by  of  empirical  peculiar  AND  restricts  examine  the  tested  inter-state relations first  states  mesh,  been  are  studies  and  STUDIES  r e j e c t i n g the  traditional  behaviour unit  of  relative  FALLACIES  the  I  have of  or  this  study  and  the  Expanding in  for  assumptions  behaviour, about  accepting  empirical  ECOLOGICAL  are  i f any,  are  growth,  EMPIRICAL  few,  quantitative  economic  EXISTING  presented  reasons  the  THE  just  for  Others  review  4.1  but  basis  studies. in  OF  IV  the  the  of  gauge same  correlation  86 coefficients  are  reported  f o r the  system of  states,  the  coefficients h a v e no a b s o l u t e v a l i d i t y independently of those u n i t s , b u t a r e r e l a t i v e t o themThey measure, as i t were, not only v a r i a t i o n s o f the q u a n t i t i e s under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , but the p r o p e r t i e s of the u n i t mesh w h i c h we have i m p o s e d , . . i n order to measure,-1  For  example  Singer,  the  balance  of  major  Bremer, and  Stuckey,  c a p a b i l i t i e s i n the  power war,  properly  p o i n t out  in their  major  study  power g r o u p  of and  that  no i n f e r e n c e s c a n be made as t o which p a r t i c u l a r nations...become i n v o l v e d i n war r e s u l t i n g from the distribution or redistribution of capabilities. 2  The  balance  great  a rise  into  war.  unless  in relative  of s t a t e s , not  those  i n order  of  to redress  pointed  out  propel  the  state  the  and  attempts  choice  f o r the  G. Odny Y u l e the Theory o f p.312.  a n a l y s i s problem"  that t i t l e , to  unwary,  spell  a state  system.  called  choice  the  p r o p o s i t i o n s must come from  international relations literature,  paper of  less  i n Chapter I I I ,  In the  " l e v e l of  predominant  states in  power p o s i t i o n may  Evidence f o r these  oft-cited  2  war  suggest that the  Some a l s o s u g g e s t , a s  that  analyses  initiate  p o s i t i o n s combine  balance.  1  power t h e o r i s t s  power w i l l  favourable  is  of  out  His the  paper  the  after  difficulty Singer's  begins  consequences  "Whether i n t h e  p h y s i c a l or  with of  a  that  social  and H a u r i c e G. K e n d a l l , An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o S t a t i s t i c s (London: C h a r l e s G r i f f i n , 1950),  Singer, Bremer and Stuckey, "Capability Distribution, U n c e r t a i n t y , and H a j o r Power War," p- 45.  87 science,"  Singer  writes,  t h e o b s e r v e r may c h o o s e t o f o c u s upon t h e p a r t s o r upon t h e w h o l e , upon t h e c o m p o n e n t s o r upon t h e system. He may, f o r example, c h o o s e between t h e flowers or the garden... the trees or the forest.... 3  The  p r o b l e m , i f i t be a " p r o b l e m " a t a l l , *  Since t h e p u b l i c a t i o n "Ecological an  i n 1950 o f R o b i n s o n ' s  Correlations  inference  from  an  and t h e  fallacy",  s  unfortunate; generally  While  "ecological  into  the  Ecological fallacies infreguent  in  relationship to  h a s been  t h i s name  dubbed  fits  easily  conceptual  of the f i r s t  guantitative  "the  i s now p r e v a l e n t ,  fallacy"  Sprouts'  classic  paper  Behavior of I n d i v i d u a l s , "  aggregate  individual relationship  i s an o l d one.  type,  studies  the  ecological i t i s and more  vocabulary.  Robinson's type, are of  international  3  J . David Singer, "The L e v e l o f A n a l y s i s Problem i n International Relations," The I n t e r n a t i o n a l System: T h e o r e t i c a l Essays, ed. Klaus K n o r r and S i d n e y V e r b a ( P r i n c e t o n : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 ) , p.77.  4  To " s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m " i s t o s t a t e what t h e u n i t w h i c h you a r e a n a l y z i n g i s and t o s t i c k w i t h i t . T h e r e a r e a number o f methods t o a s s e s s the accuracy of inferences from aggregates to individuals. In i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s , these methods a r e i r r e l e v a n t . The s t a t e most o f t e n i s the u n i t and we c r e a t e our aggregates r a t h e r than have taem r e a d y made. See W.B.Moul, "The L e v e l o f A n a l y s i s Problem R e v i s i t e d , " Canadian Journal o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e 6 ( S e p t e m b e r 1973), 494-513.  5  W.S.Robinson, " E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n s and t h e B e h a v i o r o f I n d i v i d u a l s , " American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, 15(1950), 351-357. For another typology of ecological fallacies, one which i s f a r more e l e g a n t t h a n t h e one p r e s e n t e d h e r e i n , s e e Hayward A l k e r , J r . , "A T y p o l o g y o f E c o l o g i c a l Fallacies" i n Quantitative Ecological Analysis i n the S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , ed.. MDogan and S. Rokkan (Cambridge:  88 relations  and t h e y  are not d i f f i c u l t  hand, e c o l o g i c a l f a l l a c i e s variety, more  type,  i n h e r e i n much o f t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e  ecological fallacy  analysis  the Sprouts'  work and a r e f a r  occurs  when t h e  d e n i e s one o r two p o i n t s o f t h e e c o l o g i c a l  t r i a d of  environed e n t i t y , interrelations. forest,  ecological a proper  entity-environment  choice of  t h e t r e e s or the  i s too r e s t r i c t i v e .  essence  and  of the e c o l o g i c a l  study o f t h e  approach,  relations.  most p l a i n l y , preposterous  F o l l o w i n g from  denies r e l a t i o n s  situation,  given  the t h r e e elements  6  i s and s h o u l d  An e c o l o g i c a l  and t h e  i s e s s e n t i a l to  r e l a t i o n s between s t a t e s .  international relations  international  and t h e  the f l o w e r s i n the garden.  p e r s p e c t i v e , i f not the language,  the t r u i s m :  HIT  and  sort  be between t h e t r e e s i n t h e f o r e s t  between t h e g a r d e n  This i s the  a  second  environment, The p r o f e r r e d  choice should  matter  o f the  or t h e f l o w e r s or the garden,  forest,  is  of the second  On t h e o t h e r  pernicious.  An  The  t o spot.  fallacy,  To r e p e a t be about t o put the  between s t a t e s . the  subject  This  matter.  of the ecological  triad,  P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 69-86.  This essence o f the Sprouts' e c o l o g i c a l approach is conspicuously absent from t h e o n l y s t a t i s t i c a l study of t h e S p r o u t s ' a r g u m e n t s which I c a n r e c a l l , . Unfortunately i t i s found i n a F e s t s c h r i f t t o t h e Sprouts. Dina Z i n n e s , "Some E v i d e n c e R e l e v a n t t o t h e M a n - M i l i e u H y p o t h e s i s " i n The A n a l y s i s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s : E s s a y s i n Honor o f H a r o l d and M a r g a r e t S p r o u t , e d . J.N. R o s e n a u , Vincent Davis, M a u r i c e E a s t (New Y o r k : The Free P r e s s , 1972), pp.209-251 c o n s i s t s o f e v i d e n c e i r r e l e v a n t t o t h e manm i l i e u h y p o t h e s i s and e v i d e n c e , r e l e v a n t and i r r e l e v a n t , rendered i r r e l e v a n t by a l l o f t h e e c o l o g i c a l f a l l a c i e s mentioned i n t h i s c h a p t e r .  89 there are three will  d e a l w i t h the f i r s t  chapter The results for  ways o f d e n y i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . briefly.  i s a prolonged discussion first, of a  and  behaviour.  relatively  The  of the  rare,  or  systemic  F o r example.  t h e o r y and  third.  system  influences  Singer,  remainder of the  subtype i s the use o f the  study o f the i n t e r n a t i o n a l  the external  systems  two  I  upon  to account state  i n his discussion  the e c o l o g i c a l approach,  of  suggests  t h a t we may t h i n k of the g l o b a l system as a hierarchy of n e s t e d subsystems each embraced by those at the next h i g h e r l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s and embracing those at a l l lower l e v e l s . It follows f r o m t h i s t h a t any s y s t e m o r s e t o f s y s t e m s a t one l e v e l of analysis constitutes t h e environment of a l l e n t i t i e s e x i s t i n g a t any l o w e r l e v e l . 7  7  J . D a v i d S i n g e r , A G e n e r a l Systems Taxonomy F o r P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , (New Y o r k : G e n e r a l L e a r n i n g P r e s s , 1 9 7 1 ) , p. 12. I t would f o l l o w t h a t a g r e a t power, (say) France, i s e n v i r o n e d by t h e g r e a t power s y s t e m which i n c l u d e s F r a n c e and, above t h a t , by t h e t o t a l i n t e r s t a t e s y s t e m which again i n c l u d e s France. I f so, a "boundary p r o b l e m , " no less serious t h a n t h o s e which plague the "systems of a c t i o n " school Singer c r i t i c i z e s t h r o u g h o u t h i s pamphlet, emerges i n Singer's "systems as e n t i t i e s " approachF r a n c e i s a member o f t h e g r e a t power s y s t e m and t h e t o t a l system; we c a n n o t t r e a t a s t a t e a s c o n s t i t u t i n g , i n p a r t , its own e n v i r o n m e n t and avoid conceptual confusion. Singer's argument h e r e undermines h i s argument for ecological or contextual analysis. I f we f o u n d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between two v a r i a b l e s to v a r y among s t a t e s , we would want t o see i f t h e v a r i a t i o n d e p e n d s upon e a c h s t a t e ' s c o n t e x t . The i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h e quotation i s that c o n t e x t o f each i s the same, and a constant cannot e x p l a i n a variation. See Cynthia Cannizzo, "Capability Distribution and M a j o r - P o w e r War E x p e r i e n c e , 1816-1965," O r b i s , 21 ( W i n t e r 1978), 947-957 f o r a r e c e n t example o f the c o n f u s i o n .  The  implication i s that  the  onset  the  properties  of  percentage state  war  of  in  the  of  the  the  by  system  the  dependent  v a r i a b l e s are  the  mesh  operationism meant with  the  trees  phrase,  the  be  in  and  embrace  trees  this  i n the  the  add  of  War  version  and  data,  Harf,  the In  only  for  relationships,  I  will  of  demonstrate  discuss  their  that  case  is  associated and  hackneyed  the  can  be  numbers  analysis James  display  the  computer  meaningful  study  any  The  8  reverse  result  and  a  the  for  forests  a recent  ecological fallacy, and  1 0  sum  by  invites  another  Hoovler  operationalism,  meaningless.  war  i n each  in  the  to  state.  that  use  crude  numerical  of  meanings  oranges,  meaningless.  added  suggestion  To  in  "explained"  because  a l l the  but  variation  that  operationism  with  fruits:  of  of  implication i s  apples  i s  the  incidence  The  together-  of  of  safely  same,  "By  The  9  number  Correlates  not  measures  added  when y o u  expressed forests  the  be  properties  reverse.  concept."  should  could  i s different.  in  endowing  percentage  i n t e r n a t i o n a l system  variation  "explained"  unit  the  of of  Jr. most cares  or  below.  8  This i s the i m p l i c a t i o n of the c o n c l u s i o n to J. David S i n g e r and M e l v i n S m a l l , " A l l i a n c e Aggregation and the O n s e t o f War, 1815-1945," p.286.  9  C l y d e Coombs, " T h e o r y and M e t h o d s o f i n Research Methods i n the B e h a v i o r a l F e s t i n g e r a n d D a n i e l K a t z (New York: 1953) , p . 4 7 6 .  1  0  S o c i a l Measurement," Sciences, ed. Leon The D r y d e n Press,  J. H a r f , D. H o o v l e r a n d T. James J r . , " S y s t e m i c and External Attributes i n Foreign Policy Analysis," in Comparing Foreign P o l i c i e s : Theories, Findings, and M e t h o d s , e d . J.N. R o s e n a u (New Y o r k : John W i l e y and Sons, 1974), pp.235-249,  91 The  second subtype  asking: the  are  the  the  ecological fallacy  a t t r i b u t e s of the  s t a t e or  The  guestion  interrelations. this  guestion  politics.  1 1 1  leaves  Rosenau w r i t e s  provide  always r e c o g n i z e d , * This  "one  of  i n the  in  Hoggard and  study  the  categories,  they  egually  find  far  more p o t e n t t h a n r e l a t i o n a l  the  assault will  fallacies  on be  the glad  described  findings  potent  Ramsey,  to  join  in.  come from A l l of  i n t h i s chapter  are  to  not  controversy  is  an  that  reguired. such  a  external,  or  f a c t o r s to  be  They  1 2  of  world  attempt  "internal"  factors.  will  of  possibility  D i v i d i n g p r e d i c t o r s i n t o i n t e r n a l and  relational,  I  the  if  Rosenau a r g u e s t h a t  admits  He  test.  extreme answers  nature/nurture  may  his colleagues,  behaviour  most p e r s i s t e n t ,  both s e t s of i n f l u e n c e s and  the  two  abstract.  be  a t t r i b u t e s of  that  the  which  in  entity-environment  analogue to the  j u s t as s t e r i l e  arose  out  controversies  empirical investigation  1 3  the  e n v i r o n m e n t most p o t e n t when e x p l a i n i n g  states?  is  of  "hope...that  many  guarters."  the  ecological  found  i n these  two  1 1  James N. Rosenau and Gary D. Hoggard, " F o r e i g n P o l i c y Behavior i n Dyadic Relationships: Testing a PreTheoretical Extension," i n Comparing Foreign P o l i c i e s : T h e o r i e s . Methods, and F i n d i n g s , e d . James N. Rosenau (New Y o r k : John H i l e y and S o n s / S a g e P u b l i c a t i o n , 1974), pp. 117-118,  1 2  Ibid, p. 142, and J.N. Rosenau and George H. Ramsey J r . , " E x t e r n a l and I n t e r n a l Typologies of F o r e i g n Policy Behavior: T e s t i n g t h e S t a b i l i t y o f an I n t r i g u i n g Set o f Findings," i n Sage I n t e r n a t i o n a l Yearbook o f Foreign Policy'Studies, Volume I I I , e d . Patrick J. McGowan ( B e v e r l y H i l l s : S a g e , 1975) pp. 245-262.  1 3  Rosenau and  Hoggard,  "Foreign  P o l i c y Behavior,"  p.143.  92 studies, concern  but the " i n t e r n a l vs.  as  and Hoggard  "the size  point  out  attribute i s  a national  one," and  developed/underdeveloped  that  a s much  the  same  dichotomy  could  variable. *  relational  category,  no r e l a t i o n s h i p s  the r e l a t i o n a l  pairs  findings Aside  of  from  dyads  that,  ("distance", between  terms. they  or  rectangle? longer  and  width  area it  1 4  Like  pose  or wider vary  Ibid.,  p,142.  we  or  A l l  from the  ecological  fallacy.  predictors  are relations  may  distance  have  may  distant  limit  visits  per se i s not a r e l a t i o n s h i p except i n two  studies point  I t i s t h e same contribute gardens,  than with  that  we  answer t h e  i s that  the  to  might  one;  the vantage  of both  cannot  thing  most  o f an i n t e r r e l a t i o n  be a l i t t l e  second  o f dyads o r  states  relational  states,  or social  Surveying  i s to talk  may  many  to  "homogeneity")  and t h e main  the width  will  and  These  ill-conceived,.  length  is  "balance"  but d i s t a n c e  geometric  is  Robinson's  and p h y s i c a l  them,  guestion  involves  the three  of  to the external  properties  inferences  of  attribute  a r e t o be f o u n d .  make  none  states.  relations to  To  suggested  i s the  Turning  attributes describe  of states.  have  be s a i d  which  predictor  1  others  a relational  "internal"  of  i s t h e primary  here,.  Rosenau that  external"  as asking:  does t h e  the area note  b u t what point, between  i s not very  question  that we  of a this  call  one  length  and t o t a l k o f t h e two.  helpful.  To s a y  93 If  a l l of  subtype  these  p r o b l e m s c o u l d be  of ecological  fallacy  the way g u e s t i o n s a b o u t rather  than  how t h e y  assumption giving  that  the  behaviours  recognized;  remains.  international  a r e posed.  sectional statistical  into  relations with  a r e answered the cross-  comes, c o v e r t l y ,  i s an i s o l a t e ,  a vacuum.  the t h i r d  T h i s one c o n c e r n s  Along  mode o f a n a l y s i s state  avoided,  o c c u p y i n g and  The a s s u m p t i o n  nevertheless, i ti s there-  the  i s not  An extreme  example  draws i t o u t . WcGowan and Rood book,  e x p a n d upon a remark by  System and P r o c e s s  perchance,  i s found  i n International  Kaplan Politics  i n h i sdiscussion of  The remark i s on t h e u n p r e d i c t a b i l i t y  bumping  together o f  predictibility  of temperature  volume o f a g a s . perspective  They  time i n d e p e n d e n t . " alliance o f one  1 5  That  and t h e  McGowan and Rood f i n d during  1 5  very  intriguing  and  the  of pressure f o ra  "when v i e w e d  is,  i n a balance  intervals  from t h e  next  are  randomly  the a l l i a n c e  about  system,  distributed-  activity  i n Europe  i f the process  No r e a s o n a b l e p e r s o n results  o f power  between t h e f o r m a t i o n  1814-1914 f i t t h e v a l u e s e x p e c t e d  randomly g e n e r a t e d . their  that  that  o f t h e random  a l l a l l i a n c e s a r e e g u i p r o b a b l e and  f o r m a t i o n and t h e alliance  molecules  and c h a n g e s  propose  o f the system  gas  which,  the balance of  power.  individual  in his  the  would i n f e r European  were from  state  P a t r i c k McGowan and R o b e r t Rood, " A l l i a n c e Behavior i n B a l a n c e o f Power S y s t e m s : Applying a P o i s s o n Model t o Nineteenth Century Europe," American P o l i t i c a l Science B § v i e w , 69 (September 1965), 859-870.  i  1  94 system  that  the great  fallacy  would b e  affront  to  that the  However,  of c l a s s i c a l  that  and t h e  creation  of a  international  craving  wholly  relations  t o t h e massive  that states  their  than  i s what must be assumed i f inference  are  forscience,  have  situation:  we must assume  that  t o be The  inference  with  l e d t othe to they  o r , i f they e x i s t , they e x i s t i n a haphazard  Moreoever,  past,  a f f r o n t t o common s e n s e  statistical  perverse  are  immediate  quantitative studies.  of c l a s s i c a l  science,  The a g g r e g a t e  1 6  compared  statistical  i n cross-national  identification  exist  and o f  randomly, i s a g r e a t e r  powers  randomly.  To assume  each other  inference..  invoked  a minor i r r i t a n t  common s e n s e .  indepedent o f "acting"  powers a c t e d  t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l mode o f a n a l y s i s ,  study do n o t manner.  1 7  t h e one  1 6  C e r t a i n l y t h e a u t h o r s do n o t . Q u i t e t h e c o n t r a r y : each a l l i a n c e " i s b a s e d s o l e l y upon p r e s e n t s t a t e i n t e r e s t and c u r r e n t t h r e a t s t o t h e b a l a n c e o f power-" I b i d . , 860.  1 7  This i s the substantive i m p l i c a t i o n of the apparently technical decisions. R e c a l l t h e d i s t i n c t i o n between o r g a n i z e d and d i s o r g a n i z e d c o m p l e x i t y . For d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e " i n d i v i d u a l i s t i c " , " a t o m i s t i c " , o r , l e s s commonly and more p e r c e p t i v e l y , t h e " l i b e r a l " f a l l a c y i n other areas of the s o c i a l sciences, s e e James S. Coleman, "Relational Analysis: The S t u d y o f S o c i a l O r g a n i z a t i o n s with Survey M e t h o d s , " Human, O r g a n i z a t i o n , 17 ( W i n t e r 1958-1959), 28-36; and Johan G a i t u n g , " T h e o r y and Methods o f S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , (New Y o r k : C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 7 ) , pp.148-160, 358-388, To c a s t t h e argument i n a t r i a d , we have t h r e e p o i n t s : (1) t h e o r y , (2) t e c h n i g u e , and (3) method. Where t h e lack of theory i s bemoaned, t e c h n i g u e and more s o p h i s t i c a t e d technigue are prescribed; methodology, t h e s t u d y o f r e l a t i o n s between t h e o r y and t e c h n i g u e , i s forgotten. Discussions of, and p r e s u m a b l y c o u r s e s o n , " T h e o r y a n d Method" a r e misnamed. They o f t e n c o n f i n e themselves t o e i t h e r the f i r s t point o r t h e second;  favoured/  precludes  illustrate  below.  any  causal  C r o s s - n a t i o n a l aggregate data the  supra-exponential  the  field  and  minor  r e p a i r s are  the  temporal  order  time l a g s are the  dyadic  analyses  which i s  p u s h e s up  I have c o n f i n e d separate  chapter.  they  and  are  politics.  suggested.  recommended.  e r r o r s and  the To  I  will  s t u d i e s are r e s p o n s i b l e  many d i v e r s e r e s u l t s ,  between s t a t e s  as  for  growth of q u a n t i t a t i v e p u b l i c a t i o n s i n  of i n t e r n a t i o n a l  reviews of the  analysis,  the  III,  the  numerous  To  1 9  Each  of  To  for causal  capture  analyses,  t h e r e p a i r s compounds  growth c u r v e . the  noted  restore relations  a r e recommended.  have a c c e p t e d  p r o p o s i t i o n s i n Chapter  In  some f a u l t s a r e  necessary  review of  t o have i n c l u d e d  1 8  For  empirical the  this  research  published  them i n t h e  reason, to a  results  d i s c u s s i o n of  would h a v e i n v i t e d  a  as the  multitude  where, on t h e l e f t , Ockham's r a z o r i s made b l u n t , r i g h t , n u m e r i c a l c r u n c h e r s p r a n c e on.  to  the  1 8  F o r an e m p i r i c a l estimate of t h e growth curve, see P a t r i c k McGowan, "The F u t u r e o f C o m p a r a t i v e S t u d i e s : An E v a n g e l i c a l P l e a , " i n In Search of Global P a t t e r n s , ed. J.N. Rosenau (New Y o r k : The F r e e Press, 1976), pc219-222. My e s t i m a t e o f t h e numbers o f c r o s s - n a t i o n a l a g g r e g a t e d a t a s t u d i e s i s an e d u c a t e d guess,.  1 9  P. McGowan and H. Shapiro, The C o m p a r a t i v e S t u d y o f Foreign P o l i c y : A Survey of S c i e n t i f i c F i n d i n g s (Beverly H i l l s : Sage, 1973); S. P e t e r s e n , " R e s e a r c h on R e s e a r c h : E v e n t s Data S t u d i e s , 1961-1972," i n Sage I n t e r n a t i o n a l Yearbook o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y Studies, 3 (Beverly H i l l s : Sage, 1975), pp7263-310; and J.A. Vasguez, " S t a t i s t i c a l Findings in International Politics: A Data-Based Assessment," I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s Quarterly, 2 0 (June 1 9 7 6 ) , 171-21?, a r e r e c e n t s t o c k - t a k i n g s .  2  M e r t o n , " N o t e s on  0  Problem-Finding,"  pp.  xiii-xvi.  of tseudo p r o b l e m s . C l e a r l y should  improve  what  the  data  a n a l y s i s i n C h a p t e r s VI  Through d e s p a i r  over  the  knowledge, relevant  there  not  reguired.  "the  negative  Any  e v o l u t i o n so  cultural  aspect  aspect  describes  one  i n the  power p o l i t i c s the  positive  lack of t a k e - o f f  i s a pattern  to the  involution, so  p o i n t i n g out  of  points  to  peculiarity  a  and  into  avoid VII.  cumulative  development o f  propositions. desired,  pattern  pattern  to  has  two  studies  It  or t h e  is  revolution  opposing  aspects:  e s t a b l i s h e s a taboo, task."  As  96  the  Goldenweiser  of p r i m i t i v e c u l t u r e s :  The p r i m a r y e f f e c t o f p a t t e r n i s , o f c o u r s e , to check development, or at l e a s t to l i m i t i t . As s o o n as t h e p a t t e r n f o r m i s r e a c h e d f u r t h e r change is inhibited by t h e tenacity of the p a t t e r n . While c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of a l l things cultural, especially i n primitiveness, t h i s aspect of p a t t e r n i s p a r t i c u l a r l y c o n s p i c u o u s i n r i t u a l s and t h e f o r m s o f r e l i g i o u s o b j e c t s , where t h e t e n a c i t y of pattern i s e n h a n c e d by social inertia or a sacred halo. The i n e v i t a b l e r e s u l t i s p r o g r e s s i v e complication, variety within uniformity, v i r t u o s i t y w i t h i n monotony. This i s i n v o l u t i o n . 2 1  My  i n t e n t i o n i s t o be  find  no  studies last  2 1  other  way  mischievous,  not  to understand the  which s h o u l d  be  relevant  to  malicious.  logic the  of  most  I  can  of  the  propositions in  the  chapter.  A l e x a n d e r A. G o l d e n w e i s e r , " L o o s e Ends o f T h e o r y on the Individual, Pattern, and Involution i n Primitive S o c i e t y , " i n Essays i n Anthropology: P r e s e n t e d t o A.L. Kroeber, ed. R o b e r t Lowie (Berkeley: U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1 9 3 6 ) , pp. 102-103.  97 How  else,  g i v e n good w i l l  b l a c k humour, "fundamental  can  the  problems"  and  logic  d i s c o u n t i n g attempts  of the  i n t h e o r y be  following  argument  at on  comprehended?  The nomothetically inclined investigator is n a t u r a l l y i n t e r e s t e d i n maximizing t h e number o f cases for s t a t i s t i c a l tests j.n o r d e r that empirical d e s c r i p t i o n s may be d e r i v e d . If research retains i t s e m p h a s i s on n a t i o n s as i t s units-of-analysis, the p o p u l a t i o n s i z e r e s u l t i n g does indeed c a s t some d o u b t s on the c a p a c i t y of statistical analysis to uncover meaningful contingency statements. 2 2  The  world  i s at  redressing the hundred  and  what end?  fault  problems"  forty Now,  and  the authors  by s t a t i s t i c a l  seek  "of  trust-busting.  s t a t e s a r e made t o y i e l d  they quote  ways  19,460 c a s e s .  One To  another approvingly:  t h e number i s l a r g e enough t o make random s a m p l i n g a sensible approach i n the study o f 'dyads'. Studies that produce estimates about the population of a l l dyads from a n a l y s i s o f random samples are s t a t i s t i c a l i n the e x a c t s e n s e . 2 3  2  2  C h a r l e s W. K e g l e y , Jr.. and R i c h a r d A. S k i n n e r , "The C a s e f o r - A n a l y s i s Problem" i n In Search of Global Patterns, p.311.  2  3  C-A. M c C l e l l a n d , "Two Conceptual Issues i n the Quantitative A n a l y s i s of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Events Data," mimeo, 1970, p.6, as c i t e d i n i b i d . p.312. In a f o o t n o t e on t h e same page, K e g l e y and S k i n n e r n o t e t h a t o f t h e 19,469 " d i r e c t e d d y a d s " (N (N-1) ) , a s m a l l number a c c o u n t f o r most o f t h e events recorded. Four hundred and f i f t y - t w o (452) d i r e c t e d d y a d s a c c o u n t e d f o r 81% o f the events r e c o r d e d . They t h e n go on, p a s s i n g t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t i n t h e i r paper, t o s t a t e t h a t we s h o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e s e 452. The 452 d y a d s a r e g e n e r a t e d f r o m a " p o p u l a t i o n ( s i c ) o f o n l y 91 " a c t i v e " s t a t e s . The enormous d i s c r e p a n c y between t h e two f i g u r e s t e l l s us much o f the s t r u c t u r e of the s t a t e system. I f the i n t e r a c t i o n s were random, 91 s t a t e s s h o u l d g i v e 91 (91-1) d y a d s where o n l y 452 a r e found. P e r h a p s more e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e w o r l d i s o r g a n i z e d a l o n g " f e u d a l " l i n e s would be s u p e r f l u o u s , b u t I f i n d i t a m a z i n g t h a t no s t u d y has used t h e m a s s i v e e v e n t s d a t a a r c h i v e s t o d i s p l a y and d e s c r i b e  98 They  continue,  remarked  during  make g o o d The  smooth  by Andrew  of this  chapter,  like  are not, i n themselves,  remain  and weakened  of  with  they  bore.  the  lips,  once  they  where  repetition,  In the f o l l o w i n g  studies  of  involvement industrial  and  the war,  growth  once  served  three  and war,  (3)  nexus  4.2  ALLIANCE  COMMITMENTS  AND  made  their  seminal  debate,  Singer  polarity/stability from  relationships empirical  the s t r u c t u r e do s o . *  worn  substitutes t o serve  Praxis, the  critical  I assess  between  not  particular  alliance between  the alliance/relative  a n d war.  "the  WAR  structure  contribution and  of  among i t s c o m p o n e n t s .  study  become  the relationships and  other.  insights:  are f i t only  sections  position  they  each  t h e mind.  relationships (2)  they  they  i n the previous  avoid  s t r e n g t h and  power  attention  even  a n d t h e theme i s  startling  Now  restores  edges.  (1)  cannot  repetition,  the thoughts  After  " I tdon't  those  novel,  and method  for  2  Jackson:  2  a r e what  further  C r o c k e t t i s r e p o r t e d t o have  nonsense." *  cliche—theory  Cliches  a s Davy  a speech  arguments  chapter, that  but,  which  deals  of the state  Small  the  exclusively  system  over  turned  system"  They  to  to  completed with  time.  the their the the only  national  I intend  to  As c i t e d i n David Hackett F i s h e r ' s comprehensive and w i t t y c a t a l o g u e , H i s t o r i a n ^ s F a l l a c i e s : Toward a L o g i c o f H i s t o r i c a l T h o u g h t (New Y o r k : H a r p e r a n d Row, 1970).  99 a l l i a n c e commitments and correlations involvement  between and  war  cross-section,  19th  Singer  signs.  century  The  basis  the  earlier  various  Small  lie  out  zero  of  during  the  that  the  conclude that  1815-1945  behind size  the and  negative c o e f f i c i e n t s in  p o s i t i v e ones i n t h e  t h i s reasoning  the  alliance  l a r g e r o n e s of e g u a l  That i s : the  cancel  for  and  Finding  measures  hovered near  minute c o e f f i c i e n t s , opposite  war-proneness.  i s that  (1968) s t u d y o f t h e  s u c h was  the  twentieth.  the  case i n  i n t e r n a t i o n a l system.  They  state: what h o l d s f o r t h e s y s t e m must a l s o hold, in general, f o r the n a t i o n s s i n c e they g e n e r a t e the b e h a v i o r from which our systematic properties are inferred. 2 5  Wrong-  The  inference  is  coefficients supposed  reasoning  to  moderate i n  is logically  i n c o r r e c t and  empirically inaccuractefor be  the  via  the  positive  in sign.  which a r e  are  and  smaller  the  Singer  One my  striking  re-analysis  width of  2  5  2 6  negative defect  to  of  Those  supposed to in size. and  w h i c h I have r e f e r r e d ,  each o f t h e  which  are  "ecological fallacy",  1900-1945 c r o s s - s e c t i o n , occasionally  correlation  1815-1899 c r o s s - s e c t i o n ,  negative  s i z e but  The  the  cross-sections  for be  are the  positive,  2 6  Small a n a l y s i s ,  and  i s the  immense  investigated.  It is  J.David Singer and M e l v i n S m a l l , "National A l l i a n c e Commitments and War Involvement, 1818-1945," I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s and F o r e i g n Policy, ed. J.N. R o s e n a u (New Y o r k : The F r e e P r e s s , 1969)", pp. 513,542 W.B.Moul, 500-501.  "The  Level  of  Analysis  Problem  Revisited,"  100 impossible  to  determine  essential  to  state  have  of  can  the  support  state  would  association inversely  and  between  related  in  effect,  lags".  2  8  (More  is his  a  cause  argument  serves  only  often  often  the  problem  It  i s that  to  the  labels warns  a  solution  back other  an  problem  one  offered the  the  corrigible  from  of  i s to  and,  they  with  sorting  are  the mode  out  build  analyst  the  a  of  relations  in  simply that  This  congenital  cause "time  notes  one  thereby,  empirically.)  one  a  portion Such  favoured  assumption  effect,  a  factor renders  solution  problem  of  analysis. i s  not  variation  that  one  across  f o r each  this  assumption  tacit i t i s  often  point  states  variation  that  be  not,  upon  i n one  international  to  i s  example,  in fact,  The  7  so  cross-section  when, 2  do  another.  analysis—the  thought  than  in  to  For  positive  variables  distract  cross-sectional The  the  less to  to  quantitative  falls and  statement.  a l l i t s warfare  two  and  alliance acitivity  statistical  and  difficulty;  i t s  priority,  historically.  the  literature—is and  causal  contribute  cross-sectional analysis  any  a l l of  interval  temporal  of  them  in  time  i s assumed through  and  to  time.  "developmental  unjustified  i s examined. correspond Somers  equivalence"  the  and  subseguent  2  7  The c a s e o f T u r k e y d u r i n g t h e 1900-1945 s t a r k example. I b i d . , 503-508*.  period  2  8  For example, see Robert Burrowes, " M u l t i p l e Time Series Analysis of Nation-Level Data," Comparative Political Studies, 2 ( J a n u a r y 1970) , 4 6 5 - 4 8 0 . ~ P  provides a  101 analysis  i s therefore  assumption  cannot  be  misleading. justified  relationship  f o r each s t a t e ,  in  place i s t o discover  the f i r s t  we know them, why p r o c e e d ? proceed, would  The t r a p i s  unless  we  "know"  following  know  the  y e t t h e purpose o f the a n a l y s i s those r e l a t i o n s h i p s .  If  I f we do n o t know them and  (by a s s u m p t i o n ) but  from  that  the relationship  the i n i t i a l  a mystery.  3 0  the  still  f o r any  assumption,  battering  sectional  d a t a base c a n p r o v i d e an e s c a p e  A longitudinal  statistical  a n a l y s i s of  of  significant  variations  one.  teasing  of a  cross-  from i t . between  the inaccuracy  developmental equivalence. i n the  would  No amount o f  the relationships  commitments and war r e v e a l s  assumption  s t a t e (and,  a l l states)  The t r a p i s a l o g i c a l or  strength  We  r e l a t i o n s h i p s are  empirical  alliance  t h a t the  much i s v e n t u r e d and n o t h i n g can be g a i n e d .  equivalent,  remain  2 9  There  and d i r e c t i o n  of the are among  2  9  B o b e r t Somers, " A p p l i c a t i o n s o f an E x t e n d e d Survey R e s e a r c h Model t o C o m p a r a t i v e I n s t i t u t i o n a l Studies," i n C o m p a r a t i v e Methods i n Sociology, ed. Ivan V a l l i e r (Berkeley: University of C a l i f o r n i a Press, 1971) , pp.301-305.  3  0  W.B.Moul, "On G e t t i n g N o t h i n g f o r S o m e t h i n g : A Note on Causal Models o f P o l i t i c a l Development," Comparative P o l i t i c a l Studies, 7 (July 1974), 142-147. Causal modelling o f c r o s s - n a t i o n a l data c o n t i n u e s t o be t o u t e d . See C h a r l e s P o w e l l , e t a l , " D e t e r m i n a n t s o f F o r e i g n Policy Behavior: A Causal M o d e l l i n g Approach" i n C o m p a r i n g F o r e i g n P o l i c i e s , pp. 151-170 f o r an example. D i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h ^"the a p p l i c a t i o n o f c a u s a l models i n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e a r e c h r o n i c l e d w i t h v e r v e and w i t i n K.I.Macdonald, "Causal Modelling i n P o l i t i c s and S o c i o l o g y , " Q u a l i t y and Q u a n t i t y , 10 (1976), 189-208.  ?  *  Moul,  "The L e v e l o f A n a l y s i s  Problem  R e v i s i t e d , " 500.  102 the  most  war-prone s t a t e s .  was t o i l l u s t r a t e states  were  from  were repeated,. correlation  That  (t1-t2,  i n one  may  coefficients  is:  span  was  inflated  I reported.  welcome  fact  short, but  this  improperly  The p r o b l e m  Harf,  to  creation  Hoovler  i s not  of interdependent  and James J r . involvement  and S m a l l f i n d :  have had l i t t l e powers g e t t i n g  2  This  the  modest simply the  temporal  be accommodated).  E u r o p e a n and 22 A s i a n s t a t e s  3  war w i t h i n t h e  continuity  The p r o b l e m i s observations.  suspect.  So a l s o  In  points, are the  s u b s e g u e n t r e - a n a l y s e s o f t h e same d a t a .  between a l l i a n c e  Singer  between  r e - a n a l y s i s d i s p l a y s the methodological  o f two  argued  number o f  t2—t3-t5...).  the substantive r e s u l t s are  results  to  an o b s t a c l e t o be overcome r a t h e r t h a n a  of l i f e  the d e l i b e r a t e  four  lagged  the c o e f f i c i e n t s  and t h e i n c i d e n c e o f  (t-1—t2-t4,  have  time  between t h e  calculated  year  i n general,  limited  unlike ordinary  existence of a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n ( i f indeed is,  only  study  p e c u l i a r i t i e s of the o r i g i n a l  t2-t3...) I  three years  procedure  time  pitfalls,  which S i n g e r and S m a l l e r r o n e o u s l y  a l l i a n c e s and war,  next  the  and some o f t h e  (1968)  alliances  methodological  examined,  1900-1945, paper  the  S i n c e t h e purpose i n t h a t  3 1  effect into  r e p o r t modest a s s o c i a t i o n s  and  i n t e r s t a t e war  d u r i n g t h e 1900-1964  •'....membership  in alliances  on t h e h i s t o r i c a l  war o r r e m a i n i n g  Harf, H o o v l e r and James, A t t r i b u t e s , " pp. 239-241.  Jr.,  likelihood  a t p e a c e " and  "Systemic  f o r 31 period.  3 2  seems t o o f major "...those  and E x t e r n a l  103  powers which likely  entered  into  to subsequently  get  powers which d i d n o t . statistically The the  different states and  alliances", However,  But  to  and  different  The the  between  the  other  Singer  and  Small tables  from  a  James,Jr.  something i s amiss i s  which  "number  to  were  of  j o i n i n g an a l l i a n c e .  which the  alliance/war and  attributed  by  unacceptable  generated one  3 4  the i d e n t i c a l  r e s u l t s are  same as  the  be  time periods  analysis  of  that  can  overshadowed  a l l of  methods o f  H a r f , H o o v l e r and  A sign of  the  are  method i s b a s i c a l l y t h e  discussion  findings  differences  differences  i s far  major  3 3  the  the  than those  association  in  methods b f a n a l y s i s , and  The  the  somewhat more  i n war  " a l l i a n c e membership" and  the  because o f  involved  s i g n i f i c a n t one."  discrepancies  examined  a l l i a n c e s were  j u s t met  them. in  the  studies. the  table the  relevant are  portions  reproduced  s i z e of  the  of  below.  N i n each  them.  3 3  J . D . S i n g e r and M.Small, "Foreign Policy Indicators: Predictors of Bar i n H i s t o r y and i n the State o f the W o r l d Message," P o l i c y S c i e n c e s , 5, (1974) , 293-294. E m p h a s i s added.  3 4  H a r f , H o o v l e r and James, J r . r e s o r t t o t h e most t o r t u r e d numerology i n o r d e r t o f a t t e n the v a r i a b l e s for multiple regression. To d e f i n e " a l l i a n c e membership" t o t h e i r s a t i s f a c t i o n they c o u n t t h e numbers o f a l l i a n c e s each s t a t e was i n v o l v e d i n d u r i n g t h e 13 halfdecades; add t o g e t h e r t h e memberships o f a l l t h e s t a t e s i n e a c h h a l f d e c a d e and t a k e the mean v a l u e s ; and t h e n c a l c u l a t e the d e v i a t i o n s from the mean f o r e a c h s t a t e i n each o f the thirteen slices. Expressed i n percentages these deviations from the t o t a l s become the "alliance membership" v a l u e s f o r e a c h s t a t e .  104 Table Singer  and  S m a l l examine t h e  which f l u c t u a t e d and  r e p o r t the  examine 31 not  exist  report  o f 323 is  assumption is  and  the  22  assumption  Small  and,  subsequently  i n doing  liability  all  whether i n 1913  The but  and  s t a t e / y e a r , not the  necessary  analysis  remains.  It  corresponds  the y e a r s .  The  of  use  the s t a t e / y e a r  as  the  r e s o l v e the problem o f c a u s a l  so,  provide  an e x t r e m e  cross-sectional To  note i t  or  to  build  illustration  studies  the table,  they  whether Germany was  entered  1914;  o f t h e y e a r s Germany was  the o t h e r g r e a t  James,Jr.  across state/years  explicitly  "Germany/1912"; and  and  and  a  war  repeat  a g r e a t power,  isolate  t h e n i n an  i n 1912 this  of  or  procedure  and  for  f o r a l l of  powers.  Observation  4,  justified.  international relations.  alliance  a minimum o f  many o f w h i c h d i d  respectively.  variation  be  of  span which they examine,  unit of analysis,  analysis i n order  another  (say)  Asian s t a t e s ,  time  129  Hoovler  f o r each s t a t e through  cannot  S i n g e r and  priority,  Harf,  t h e number  7 and  of ordinary c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l  variation  unit of  887.  total  assumed t h a t t h e  to the  of  N t o be  f c r the  the s t a t e ,  g r e a t powers,  between a maximum o f  E u r o p e a n and  N's  IV:1  In A l l i a n c e ?  Enter  Yes  Yes  No  Germany/1912  x  x  Germany/1913  x  x  War? No  104 a  Table Some R e s u l t s Concerning A:  IV:1  A l l i a n c e s And  Interstate  Freguencies with which majors belonged and then entered i n t o war. les les  1 16  No  532  In A l l i a n c e ?  to  gar  alliances  No 44  X=  0.03  V  Entered Bar?  648 B:  195 +  239  0.02  Q =  =  887  F r e q u e n c i e s with which majors j o i n e d a l l i a n c e s then entered i n t o war Joined les les  and  Alliance? No  31  129  1^=  2.6  104  623  Q =  0.18  Entered war? No  135 A l l i a n c e and  Europe Asia  +  752  =  887  War  ( a l l time p e r i o d s )  ( a l l time periods)  r  R"  B  N  0.21  4.4%  0.38,  323  C.30  9.05?  0.41  129  1  Sources: A and B from J . David Singer and Kelvin.Small,