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The inshore-offshore conflict in the Newfoundland fishery Voutier, Keltie C. 1981

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THE INSHORE-OFFSHORE CONFLICT IN THE NEWFOUNDLAND FISHERY by KELTIE C. VOUTIER B.A., Memorial U n i v e r s i t y of Newfoundland, 1979 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES ( S c h o o l of Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g ) We ac c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA June <.-T98t © K e l t i e C. V o u t i e r I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I agre e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a gree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e head o f my department o r by h i s o r h e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s un d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f ^.aw^*^y>J^-j^ ^a^-^L f\ ^ -^^<Ji- A. The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V ancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 DE-6 (2/79) i i ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s examines the Government of Newfoundland's d e c i s i o n t o emphasize the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y at the expense of the o f f s h o r e i n the f u t u r e development of the i n d u s t r y . The i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i s l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e and i s composed of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 30,000 l i c e n s e d f i s h e r m e n who o p e r a t e on a s e a s o n a l b a s i s from Newfoundland's c o a s t a l communities. More than 10,000 p r i v a t e l y -owned v e s s e l s - w i t h maximum range of 50 m i l e s - a r e d e p l o y e d i n t h i s s e c t o r and account f o r 65% of t o t a l l a n d e d tonnage..These v e s s e l s do not exceed 65 f e e t i n l e n g t h and over 90% a r e under 38 f e e t l o n g . In c o m p a r i s o n , the o f f s h o r e f l e e t i s c a p i t a l -i n t e n s i v e and i s e x e c u t e d from l e s s than a dozen p o r t s by 80 c o r p o r a t e l y - o w n e d t r a w l e r s t h a t range from 120 - 210 f e e t i n l e n g t h . The 1,100 men employed i n t h i s s e c t o r f i s h y e a r - r o u n d as f a r as 200 m i l e s out t o sea and t a k e the r e m a i n i n g 35% of t o t a l l a n d e d tonnage. A p a r t from one major e x c e p t i o n , each s e c t o r t a k e s s t o c k s t h a t are not e x p l o i t e d by the o t h e r . A major p o r t i o n of the cod r e s o u r c e , however, f o l l o w s e x t e n s i v e m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s and i s h a r v e s t e d by both s e c t o r s . T h i s s e r i o u s l y c o m p l i c a t e s the Newfoundland f i s h e r y because cod i s the s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t s t o c k and a c c o u n t s f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 40% of the d o c k s i d e v a l u e of the t o t a l Newfoundland c a t c h . The cod r e s o u r c e i s i n f a c t composed of a number of s e p a r a t e s t o c k s but about 60% of the t o t a l cod c a t c h comes from one s t o c k complex. T h i s complex i s known as the ' n o r t h e r n cod' and o n l y t h i s cod f o l l o w s e x t e n s i v e m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s . Thus the i n s h o r e - o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y c o n f l i c t i s c o n f i n e d s o l e l y t o n o r t h e r n cod. The i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s are not on an e q u a l f o o t i n g r e g a r d i n g n o r t h e r n cod because the i n s h o r e s e c t o r depends upon the s e a s o n a l shoreward m i g r a t i o n of the cod t h a t escape o f f s h o r e e x p l o i t a t i o n . The v i a b i l i t y of the i n s h o r e cod f i s h e r y i s t h e r e f o r e c o n t i n g e n t upon the r e s t r i c t i o n of o f f s h o r e h a r v e s t i n g t o l e v e l s t h a t a l l o w adequate volumes of cod t o m i g r a t e i n s h o r e . T h i s i s s u e has been a c e n t r a l problem i n the Newfoundland f i s h e r y f o r some time but i t has become c r i t i c a l s i n c e the e x t e n s i o n of f i s h e r i e s j u r s i d i c t i o n t o 200 m i l e s i n 1977 . The e x t e n s i o n of f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n i s e x p e c t e d t o r e s u l t i n a 250% i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l l a n d i n g s by Canadian f i s h e r m e n from 1977 t o 1985. In Newfoundland, l a n d i n g s a r e p r e d i c t e d t o i n c r e a s e from 400,000 m e t r i c tonnes t o 1,000,000 m e t r i c tonnes by 1985. N o r t h e r n cod i s a n t i c i p a t e d t o form the b u l k of t h i s w i t h l a n d i n g s e x p e c t e d t o r i s e from 80,000 m e t r i c tonnes t o 365,000 m e t r i c tonnes d u r i n g t h i s - p e r i o d . The Government of Newfoundland i s c u r r e n t l y i m plementing s t r a t e g i e s t o d e a l w i t h these i n c r e a s e s b u t , b e f o r e d o i n g so, i t f i r s t had t o d e t e r m i n e where the emphasis f o r the a l l o c a t i o n of the e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e s of n o r t h e r n cod was t o be p l a c e d . I t d e c i d e d t h a t , s i n c e i n s h o r e f i s h i n g c o n t r i b u t e s more t o the s t a b i l i z a t i o n of r u r a l s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s and l i f e s t y l e s , p r i o r i t y ought t o be p l a c e d w i t h t h i s s e c t o r . i v To a n a l y z e whether t h i s was j u s t i f i e d , the f i s h e r i e s management l i t e r a t u r e was reviewed i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y a p p r o p r i a t e c r i t e r i a f o r e v a l u a t i o n . The l i t e r a t u r e i l l u s t r a t e s t h a t t h e t h r e e fundamental c o n c e r n s a r e w i t h u t i l i z i n g t he r e s o u r c e on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s , m a x i m i z i n g economic e f f i c i e n c y and s a t i s f y i n g the s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s of the p e o p l e . On t h i s b a s i s , the c r i t e r i a l i s t e d below were c o n s i d e r e d . R e s o u r c e - R e l a t e d C r i t e r i a : ( 1 ) A b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t cod. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o know i f each s e c t o r i s c a p a b l e of h a r v e s t i n g the major p o r t i o n of the t o t a l a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of n o r t h e r n cod. I f one s e c t o r i s n o t , p l a c i n g p r i o r i t y w i t h i t would be an i n e f f i c i e n t approach t o managing the r e s o u r c e . ( 2 ) A b i l i t y t o ensure s u s t a i n e d h a r v e s t i n g . F i s h e r i e s management i s concerned w i t h s u s t a i n e d h a r v e s t i n g . I f one s e c t o r d i s p l a y s a c a p a b i l i t y f o r s t o c k d e p l e t i o n much g r e a t e r than the o t h e r , i t may not be the most a t t r a c t i v e f o r the l o n g term management of the r e s o u r c e . Thus, a second c r i t e r i o n i s the p h y s i c a l a b i l i t y of each s e c t o r t o h a r v e s t cod w i t h o u t o v e r -e x p l o i t i n g the s t o c k . Economic C r i t e r i a : (3) M a x i m i z a t i o n of economic r e n t . The management l i t e r a t u r e o u t l i n e s t h a t a fundamental management concern i s t o maximize economic r e n t . A t h i r d e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n , t h e r e f o r e , i s which s e c t o r h a r v e s t s f i s h most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e l y f o r a g i v e n volume of c a t c h . (4) M a x i m i z a t i o n of economic e f f i c i e n c y . M a x i m i z i n g r e n t f o r a f i s h e r y i s o n l y an a c c e p t e d measure of economic e f f i c i e n c y d u r i n g p e r i o d s of f u l l employment. O t h e r w i s e , i m m o b i l i t y of l a b o u r , low o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s and the c o m b i n a t i o n of f i s h i n g w i t h supplementary a c t i v i t i e s may mean t h a t e f f i c i e n c y i s f u l f i l l e d by over-employment i n a f i s h e r y . T h e r e f o r e , a f o u r t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s which s e c t o r c o n t r i b u t e s most t o economic e f f i c i e n c y t h r o u g h the c r e a t i o n of employment and V c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h supplementary economic a c t i v i t i e s . (5) P l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . The p r o c e s s o r s have p o i n t e d t o the f a c t t h a t one of t h e i r most i m p o r t a n t c o n c e r n s i s i n c r e a s e d p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . A f i f t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n , c o n s e q u e n t l y , i s an e x a m i n a t i o n of the impact t h a t each f i s h e r y s e c t o r has on t h i s . S o c i a l C r i t e r i o n : (6) S a t i s f a c t i o n of s o c i a l c o n c e r n s . An i n t e g r a l a s p e c t of f i s h e r i e s management i s s a t i s f a c t i o n of s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s . In the Newfoundland f i s h e r y , t h e s e i n c l u d e p r o v i s i o n of employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s and p r e s e r v a t i o n of e x i s t i n g s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s . A f i n a l c r i t e r i o n i s how the two s e c t o r s compare r e g a r d i n g t h i s . E x a m i n a t i o n of the a v a i l a b l e d a t a i l l u s t r a t e s t h a t b oth the i n s h o r e and the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s have the a b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t the major p o r t i o n of the n o r t h e r n cod. I n s h o r e f i s h i n g , however, employs a l e s s r a p a c i o u s t e c h n o l o g y than o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g and h a r v e s t s o n l y the m i g r a t o r y p a r t of the r e s o u r c e . Thus, i t runs a lower r i s k of o v e r - h a r v e s t i n g . At the same t i m e , d a t a p r o v i d e d by Schrank et a l (1980) i n d i c a t e t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y g e n e r a t e s g r e a t e r economic r e n t s than th e o f f s h o r e , i . e . i t i s the most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e approach t o h a r v e s t i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , because i t i s l a b o u r - r a t h e r than c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e , i n s h o r e f i s h i n g c r e a t e s more job s and, because i t i s s e a s o n a l , a l s o a l l o w s f o r a g r e a t e r range of supplementary a c t i v i t i e s . Thus, i t c o n t r i b u t e s more t o "economic e f f i c i e n c y " . The two s e c t o r s a l s o d i f f e r r e s p e c t i n g p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . O f f s h o r e f i s h i n g p r o v i d e s y e a r - r o u n d o p e r a b i l i t y f o r a h a n d f u l of p l a n t s whereas i n s h o r e f i s h i n g s u p p l i e s over 150 p l a n t s but on a s e a s o n a l b a s i s o n l y . S i n c e both s e c t o r s d i s p l a y an a b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t the major v i p o r t i o n of cod, n e i t h e r has any advantages as f a r as i n c r e a s i n g t o t a l p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n i s c o n c e r n e d . O f f s h o r e f i s h i n g c e n t r a l i z e s p l a n t a c t i v i t y , however, and the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y may have b e n e f i t s here by c o n t r i b u t i n g more t o e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i a i n c r e a t i n g a g r e a t e r number of p a r t - t i m e j o b s which can be f i t t e d i n w i t h o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s . F i n a l l y , the i n s h o r e s e c t o r i s more s u p p o r t i v e of e x i s t i n g s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s than the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y because i t p r o v i d e s employment i n a l l o u t p o r t s and, s i n c e i t a l l o w s f o r t r a d i t i o n a l supplementary a c t i v i t i e s more so than the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r , i s a l s o more c o m p a t i b l e w i t h r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s . In summary, the i n s h o r e s e c t o r o u t p e r f o r m s the o f f s h o r e r e g a r d i n g the g e n e r a t i o n of r e n t and the m a x i m i z a t i o n of economic e f f i c i e n c y . I t i s a l s o l e s s l i k e l y t o o v e r - h a r v e s t the r e s o u r c e and more f u l l y s a t i s f i e s the s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s of the Newfoundland p e o p l e . There a r e no d i s t i n c t d i f f e r e n c e s between the two s e c t o r s i n t h e i r a b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t cod or t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t o t a l p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . The i n s h o r e f i s h e r y t h e r e f o r e s u r p a s s e s or i s a t l e a s t comparable t o the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r i n ev e r y c r i t e r i o n . On the s t r e n g t h of t h i s , i t i s the c o n c l u s i o n of t h i s t h e s i s t h a t t h e Government of Newfoundland has made an a p p r o p r i a t e d e c i s i o n i n p l a c i n g emphasis on the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y . v i i TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ABSTRACT i i LIST OF TABLES v i i i LIST OF FIGURES i x ACKNOWLEDGEMENT . , x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1 I I METHODS 7 F i s h e r i e s Management Theory 7 L i m i t a t i o n s i n t h e Theory 12 D e c i s i o n Framework 19 R e s o u r c e - r e l a t e d c r i t e r i a 19 Economic c r i t e r i a 20 S o c i a l c r i t e r i o n 21 The Problem of E v a l u a t i o n 22 I I I HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF THE THE INSHORE-OFFSHORE CONFLICT 28 E a r l y Background 28 The I n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of O f f s h o r e F i s h i n g and the 200 M i l e L i m i t 33 E f f e c t s of I n t e n s i f i e d O f f s h o r e F i s h i n g on Newfoundland 44 C u r r e n t Socio-Economic C o n d i t i o n s . . . 46 IV EVALUATION OF RESOURCE-RELATED CRITERIA 50 Overview 50 A b i l i t y t o H a r v e s t Cod 53 A b i l i t y t o Ensure C o n t i n u e d , Long Term H a r v e s t i n g 55 S y n o p s i s 56 V EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC CRITERIA 57 Overview 57 M a x i m i z a t i o n of Economic Rent , 60 M a x i m i z a t i o n of Economic E f f i c i e n c y 70 P l a n t U t i l i z a t i o n 72 Employment C o n s i d e r a t i o n s 74 S y n o p s i s 78 VI EVALUATION OF SOCIAL CRITERION ..' 79 V I I CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 83 REFERENCES 86 v i i i LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I N o r m a l i z e d S o c i a l Economic S u r p l u s e s , of Insh o r e and O f f s h o r e F i s h i n g V e s s e l s 89 i x LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1 A Rent M a x i m i z a t i o n Model f o r a S i n g l e S tock F i s h e r y ... 9 2 The Grand Banks 30 3 The ICNAF C o n v e n t i o n A r e a 35 4 T o t a l C a t c h A l l S p e c i e s i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c 36 5 T o t a l C a t c h M a c k e r a l i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c 37 6 T o t a l C a t c h C a p e l i n i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c 38 7 T o t a l C a t c h S q u i d i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c 39 8 T o t a l C a t c h Cod i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c 40 9 T o t a l C a t c h H e r r i n g i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c . .. 41 10 F i s h i n g Areas Beyond the 200 M i l e L i m i t 51 X ACKNOWLEDGEMENT D u r i n g the p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s I was funded by a Graduate S c h o l a r s h i p from the Canada Mortage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n . Without t h i s s u p p o r t , the c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s work would not have been p o s s i b l e and t o CMHC I wish t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e . I wi s h a l s o t o e x p r e s s a p p r e c i a t i o n t o CMHC f o r i t s r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t i n r u r a l a r e a s i n g e n e r a l but Newfoundland i n p a r t i c u l a r , problems r e l a t i n g t o h o u s i n g extend f a r beyond needs f o r income s u p p o r t , b a r r i e r - f r e e d e s i g n , e t c . In many i n s t a n c e s - such as the effacement of e n t i r e communities and the t o t a l l o s s of the ho u s i n g s t o c k - the problems o r i g i n a t e i n the economic s t r u c t u r e of a r e g i o n and can o n l y be s o l v e d by f o c u s s i n g on broader i s s u e s . I s i n c e r e l y hope t h a t t h i s work s e r v e s t o r e i n f o r c e CMHC's c o n v i c t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h i s . F i n a l l y , I wish t o ext e n d s p e c i a l thanks t o Dr. W i l l i a m Rees of the School of Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g and Mr. Tony Dorcey of Westwater R e s e a r c h Centre f o r a s s i s t a n c e r e n d e r e d . 1 I ; INTRODUCTION The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o examine and e v a l u a t e the Government of Newfoundland's d e c i s i o n t o emphasize the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y a t the expense of the o f f s h o r e i n the f u t u r e development of the i n d u s t r y . The i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i s l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e and i s composed of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 30,000 l i c e n s e d f i s h e r m e n who o p e r a t e on a s e a s o n a l b a s i s out of Newfoundland's c o a s t a l communities (Government of Newfoundland, 1980). More than 10,000 p r i v a t e l y -owned v e s s e l s - w i t h maximum range of 50 m i l e s - a r e d e p l o y e d i n t h i s s e c t o r and account f o r r o u g h l y 65% of t o t a l l a n d e d tonnage (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). Over 90% of the v e s s e l s i n the i n s h o r e f l e e t a r e under 38 f e e t i n l e n g t h and the l a r g e s t i n s h o r e v e s s e l s do not exceed 65 f e e t (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). In co m p a r i s o n , the o f f s h o r e f l e e t i s c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e and i s ex e c u t e d from l e s s than a dozen p o r t s by 80 c o r p o r a t e l y - o w n e d v e s s e l s t h a t range from 120-to 210 f e e t i n l e n g t h (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). The 1,100 men employed i n t h i s s e c t o r f i s h y e a r - r o u n d as f a r as 200 m i l e s out to sea and t a k e the r e m a i n i n g 35% of t o t a l l a n d e d tonnage (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). The Newfoundland f i s h e r y r e s o u r c e c o n s i s t s of a m u l t i t u d e of s t o c k s . I n c l u d e d among the s e a r e : g r o u n d f i s h , i . e . cod, haddock, r e d f i s h , f l o u n d e r , p l a i c e and hake; p e l a g i c h e r r i n g and m a c k e r a l ; anadromous salmon; sea mammals, i . e . s e a l s ; and c r u s t a c e a n s i n c l u d i n g c r a b , l o b s t e r , s c a l l o p and shrimp. W i t h the e x c e p t i o n of the g r o u n d f i s h , a l l of these s t o c k s i n h a b i t the 2 i n s h o r e waters and are e x p l o i t e d s o l e l y by the i n s h o r e s e c t o r . These s t o c k s account f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 35% of the l a n d e d v a l u e of the t o t a l Newfoundland c a t c h (Government of Newfoundland, 1978c). Only the g r o u n d f i s h i n h a b i t the more d i s t a n t w a t e r s and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , they form th e b a s i s f o r t h e o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y . Y e t , a major p a r t of the cod r e s o u r c e f o l l o w s s e a s o n a l shoreward m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s and i s h a r v e s t e d i n s h o r e as w e l l . Thus, both s e c t o r s compete f o r cod but each a l s o t a k e s a d d i t i o n a l s t o c k s t h a t a r e e s s e n t i a l l y i n a c c e s s i b l e t o the o t h e r . The c o m p e t i t i o n f o r cod c o m p l i c a t e s the Newfoundland f i s h e r y because cod i s the s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t s t o c k and a c c o u n t s f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 40% of the d o c k s i d e v a l u e of the t o t a l Newfoundland c a t c h (Munro, 1980). The cod r e s o u r c e i s i n f a c t composed of a number of s e p a r a t e s t o c k s but about 60% of the t o t a l cod c a t c h (or 25% of the v a l u e of the t o t a l Newfoundland c a t c h ) comes from one s t o c k complex. T h i s complex i s known as the ' n o r t h e r n c o d ' 1 and o n l y t h i s cod f o l l o w s e x t e n s i v e s e a s o n a l i n s h o r e m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s . Hence, the i n s h o r e - o f f s h o r e cod c o m p e t i t i o n i s c o n f i n e d t o n o r t h e r n cod. Y e t , the two s e c t o r s are not on an e q u a l f o o t i n g i n t h i s matter because the i n s h o r e cod f i s h e r y i s dependent on the s e a s o n a l shoreward m i g r a t i o n of the cod t h a t escape o f f s h o r e e x p l o i t a t i o n . Thus, the v i a b i l i t y of the i n s h o r e cod f i s h e r y i s 1The n o r t h e r n cod s t o c k complex i s found i n a r e a 2J3KL of F i g u r e 1, page 31. The o t h e r cod s t o c k s a r e l o c a t e d i n a r e a s 2GH, 3M, 3NO, 3P and 4RS. 3 c o n t i n g e n t upon the r e s t r i c t i o n of o f f s h o r e h a r v e s t i n g t o l e v e l s t h a t a l l o w adequate volumes of cod t o m i g r a t e i n s h o r e . T h i s i n s h o r e - o f f s h o r e c o n f l i c t has been a problem i n the Newfoundland f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y f o r some time but i t has become a c r i t i c a l i s s u e s i n c e the i m p o s i t i o n of extended f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n t o 200 m i l e s i n 1977. The e x t e n s i o n of f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n by Canada means t h a t f i s h i n g by f o r e i g n n a t i o n s w i t h i n t h i s a r e a w i l l be phased out . T h i s , i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h s t o c k r e h a b i l i t a t i o n programmes, i s e x p e c t e d t o r e s u l t i n a 250% i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l Canadian l a n d i n g s by 1985 (Government of Canada, 1977a). In the P r o v i n c e of Newfoundland, l a n d i n g s a r e a n t i c i p a t e d t o r i s e from 400,000 m e t r i c tonnes (1977) t o over 1,000,000 m e t r i c tonnes d u r i n g t h i s same p e r i o d (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). The Government of Newfoundland (1978a) has p r o j e c t e d t h a t the l a n d e d v a l u e of t h i s c a t c h , i n c o n s t a n t 1977 d o l l a r s , w i l l i n c r e a s e from $85 m i l l i o n t o $194 m i l l i o n by 1985 and t h a t i t s e x p o r t v a l u e w i l l i n c r e a s e from $250 m i l l i o n t o $600 m i l l i o n . The P r o v i n c i a l Government i s c u r r e n t l y implementing s t r a t e g i e s t o accommodate t h e s e i n c r e a s e s i n b oth l a n d i n g s and revenues. B e f o r e embarking on t h i s however, i t had t o d e c i d e which f i s h e r y s e c t o r would be g i v e n p r i o r i t y i n the a l l o c a t i o n of n o r t h e r n cod. N o r t h e r n cod i s e x p e c t e d t o form the b u l k of i n c r e a s e d l a n d i n g s i n Newfoundland w i t h y i e l d s p r e d i c t e d t o r i s e from 80,000 m e t r i c tonnes (1977) t o 365,000 m e t r i c tonnes (1985) (Munro, 1980). The debate t h a t d e v e l o p e d over the a l l o c a t i o n of 4 t h i s e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e was t h e r e f o r e i n t e n s i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t whatever d e c i s i o n was reached would s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e the l o n g term f u t u r e of the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . The key s u p p o r t e r s of i n c r e a s e d o f f s h o r e a l l o c a t i o n s a r e the o f f s h o r e p r o c e s s i n g f i r m s which i n c l u d e 12 of the 189 p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s i n Newfoundland. These t w e l v e p l a n t s a r e f u l l y i n t e g r a t e d , i . e . they o p e r a t e the 80 o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s and, because they a l s o p r o c e s s i n s h o r e f i s h , account f o r 50% of t o t a l p r o c e s s e d output (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). T h e i r m o tive f o r a d v o c a t i n g o f f s h o r e development i s s t r i c t l y economic - a d d i t i o n a l o f f s h o r e c a p a c i t y would c r e a t e a g r e a t e r , more dependable s u p p l y of f i s h which would c o n t r i b u t e t o g r e a t e r p l a n t e f f i c i e n c y , h i g h e r p r o d u c t i v i t y and more p r o f i t . The main proponents of an i n c r e a s e d i n s h o r e f i s h e r y a r e the s e a s o n a l i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n . They view any i n c r e a s e o f f s h o r e as removing f i s h from them and c o n s e q u e n t l y f e e l t h a t f u t u r e development i n the f i s h e r y s h o u l d g i v e p r i o r i t y t o i n c r e a s i n g both l a n d i n g s and incomes i n the i n s h o r e s e c t o r . Even a c c o u n t i n g f o r the f a c t t h a t a g r e a t many l i c e n s e d i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n do not a c t u a l l y f i s h f o r a f u l l season (Munro, 1980), i t i s apparent t h a t the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y i s more e f f e c t i v e than the i n s h o r e i n terms of l a n d i n g s per man. I t i s a l s o more c o n d u c i v e t o y e a r - r o u n d p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . The o f f s h o r e s e c t o r , however, would c r e a t e fewer jo b s than the i n s h o r e i f e x p a n s i o n .were t o o c c u r . In a d d i t i o n , the e x t r a employment would be c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a few p o r t s and would do 5 l i t t l e t o a l l e v i a t e the unemployment problems of the r e m a i n i n g f i s h i n g communities where the b u l k of Newfoundland's p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d e s . For t h e s e r e a s o n s , the P r o v i n c i a l Government d e c i d e d t o r e s o l v e the i n s h o r e - o f f s h o r e c o n f l i c t by p l a c i n g p r i o r i t y w i t h the development of the i n s h o r e s e c t o r (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). I t has n o t , however, undertaken any i n d e p t h a n a l y s e s t o e v a l u a t e t h i s d e c i s i o n . R a t h e r , s i n c e the p r e s e r v a t i o n of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y has become a k i t c h e n t o p i c i n Newfoundland d u r i n g the p a s t few y e a r s , the gut f e e l i n g one g e t s i s t h a t i t was based on p o l i t i c a l e x p e d i e n c y . In a s t r i c t economic sense t h i s may not seem a wise r e s o u r c e management d e c i s i o n . The s e a s o n a l i t y i n h e r e n t i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y c o n t r i b u t e s t o p l a n t u n d e r - u t i l i z a t i o n and g r e a t e r overhead c o s t s per u n i t of o u t p u t . The g r e a t e r number of i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n a l s o i m p l i e s t h a t , i n comparison to the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r , the economic r e n t i s b e i n g d i s t r i b u t e d l e s s e f f i c i e n t l y . Y e t , the Newfoundland Government has d e c i d e d t h a t s p r e a d i n g the b e n e f i t s over a l a r g e r number of p e o p l e t o ensure t h e i r c o n t i n u e d w e l l b e i n g t a k e s p r i o r i t y . As such, i t i s a c l a s s i c example of s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s s u c c e s s f u l l y c h a l l e n g i n g what may, i n i s o l a t i o n , appear n o t h i n g more than s t r i c t l y an economic problem. T h i s s t u d y a t t e m p t s t o determine whether t h i s d e c i s i o n i s j u s t i f i e d . I t s h o u l d be r e i t e r a t e d a t the o u t s e t t h a t the i s s u e of c o n c e r n here i s the a l l o c a t i o n of the i n c r e a s e d s u p p l y of n o r t h e r n cod t h a t i s e x p e c t e d t o a c c r u e from the e x t e n s i o n of 6 f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n . As has been n o t e d , n o r t h e r n cod i s the o n l y major f i s h e r y a c c e s s i b l e t o b o t h s e c t o r s and i s , t h e r e f o r e , the o n l y a r e a of major c o n f l i c t between them. 7 I I : METHODS F i s h e r i e s management t h e o r y A review of t h e f i s h e r i e s management l i t e r a t u r e p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o b o t h the f i s h e r i e s management approaches t h a t have been used i n the p a s t as w e l l as the c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . t h a t a r e c u r r e n t l y i n c o r p o r a t e d i n f i s h e r i e s management d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . From t h i s , I e x t r a c t management s t a n d a r d s a p p l i c a b l e t o the Newfoundland f i s h e r y and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , the c r i t e r i a f o r e v a l u a t i n g whether the d e c i s i o n t o f a v o u r the i n s h o r e s e c t o r i s j u s t i f i e d . P r i o r t o the 1950's, the recommended management regime f o r f i s h e r i e s r e s o u r c e s emphasized m a x i m i z i n g the s u s t a i n a b l e b i o p h y s i c a l y i e l d t h a t a f i s h s t o c k was c a p a b l e of p r o v i d i n g ( K o e r s , 1973 and Munro, 1980). T h i s approach was c h a l l e n g e d , however, when eco n o m i s t s began t o take i n t e r e s t i n the management of f i s h e r i e s r e s o u r c e s . Economic a n a l y s i s of f i s h e r i e s r e s o u r c e s came t o prominence i n the e a r l y 1950's w i t h the p i o n e e r i n g work of H. S c o t t Gordon. Gordon was i n t e r e s t e d i n the e f f e c t s t h a t the common p r o p e r t y or open-access n a t u r e of a f i s h e r y had upon the o v e r a l l economic performance of t h a t r e s o u r c e . H i s a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d t h a t s i n c e f i s h i n g grounds a r e not p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y , t h e r e i s no p r o p r i e t o r t o l i m i t the employment of l a b o u r when economic r e n t on the ground i s maximized (Gordon, 1954). 8 The a n a l y t i c work de v e l o p e d by Gordon was pursued by s e v e r a l of h i s c o l l e a g u e s - i n c l u d i n g Anthony S c o t t , F r a n c i s T. C h r i s t y and James C r u t c h f i e l d - and became the f o u n d a t i o n of f i s h e r i e s economics. I t i s r e p r e s e n t e d i n the model i n F i g u r e 1 . The h o r i z o n t a l and v e r t i c a l axes r e p r e s e n t s t o c k s i z e or d e n s i t y , and y i e l d and t o t a l revenue (volume of c a t c h t i m e s p r i c e per pound) r e s p e c t i v e l y f o r a s i n g l e s t o c k f i s h e r y . I t i s assumed t h a t o n l y one r e s o u r c e user e x p l o i t s the s t o c k and t a k e s e x a c t l y the r e c r u i t m e n t . R e c r u i t m e n t i s the t h e o r e t i c a l number of f i s h added per season t o the f i s h e r y by a s t o c k of a g i v e n s i z e . The a r c i n F i g u r e 1 t h e r e f o r e r e p r e s e n t s the t h e o r e t i c a l net r e c r u i t m e n t t o the biomass f o r a l l p o s s i b l e s t o c k s i z e s . At low d e n s i t y , r e c r u i t m e n t i s o b v i o u s l y low because of l i m i t e d s t o c k s . For a w h i l e , r e c r u i t m e n t i n c r e a s e s w i t h s t o c k as the st o c k expands. However, as the s t o c k expands, so i n t h e o r y does d e n s i t y dependent n a t u r a l m o r t a l i t y . C o n s e q u e n t l y , r e c r u i t m e n t reaches a maximum a t i n t e r m e d i a t e s t o c k s i z e but then drops u n t i l i t rea c h e s z e r o a t maximum s t o c k d e n s i t y . R e c r u i t m e n t t o the s t o c k a l s o r e p r e s e n t s s u s t a i n a b l e y i e l d s (maximized a t M). L i n e S d e p i c t s the r e l a t i v e c o s t s of l a n d i n g a u n i t of f i s h a t d i f f e r e n t s t o c k d e n s i t i e s . I t i s assumed t h a t the g r e a t e r the d e n s i t y of the s t o c k , the e a s i e r i t i s ' t o h a r v e s t a u n i t of f i s h . At h i g h d e n s i t i e s , t h e r e f o r e , the c a t c h per u n i t of e f f o r t i s h i g h and c o s t s per u n i t l a n d e d a r e low. As d e n s i t y f a l l s , however, so t o does c a t c h per u n i t of e f f o r t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the c o s t per u n i t l a n d e d i n c r e a s e s as d e n s i t y d e c r e a s e s . 9 O z < G i Mi Fi K STOCK 8IZE FIGURE 1: A RENT MAXIMIZATION MODEL FOR A SINGLE STOCK FISHERY 10 In F i g u r e 1 economic r e n t i s maximized a t F. F i s h i n g a t the maximum s u s t a i n a b l e y i e l d produces l e s s than the maximum economic r e n t because of the i n c r e a s e d u n i t h a r v e s t i n g c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d e c r e a s e d s t o c k d e n s i t y ( C h r i s t y and S c o t t , 1965). A s i n g l e r e s o u r c e u s e r e x p l o i t i n g the s t o c k , c o n s e q u e n t l y , would l i m i t f i s h i n g e f f o r t when s t o c k s f a l l t o F i . In an open-access f i s h e r y , however, any economic r e n t a t t r a c t s new e n t r a n t s because r e n t i s the s u r p l u s over t o t a l f i s h i n g c o s t s which i n c l u d e both the c o s t s t o l a n d the f i s h and the i n d i v i d u a l ' s o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t ( C h r i s t y and S c o t t , 1965). The e x i s t e n c e of r e n t i s an i n c e n t i v e , t h e r e f o r e , and f i s h e r m e n w i l l c o n t i n u e t o e n t e r an open-access f i s h e r y u n t i l a l l r e n t v a n i s h e s , i . e . t o t a l revenues e q u a l t o t a l c o s t s (Gordon, 1954; S c o t t , 1957; C h r i s t y and S c o t t , 1965; and C a u v i n , 1979). In F i g u r e 1 t h i s o c c u r s a t G and i s r e f e r r e d t o as the p o i n t of bionomic e q u i l l i b r i u m . The tendency of open-access f i s h e r i e s t o approach bionomic e q u i l l i b r i u m l e d economists t o c r i t i c i z e e x i s t i n g f i s h e r i e s management as c o n t r i b u t i n g t o a m i s a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s ( S c o t t , 1957). The e a r l y consensus of economists was t h a t a f i s h e r y c o u l d o n l y make a maximum c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the economic w e l f a r e of s o c i e t y by m a x i m i z i n g net economic y i e l d or r e n t ( C r u t c h f i e l d , 1965). O t h e r w i s e , more fi s h e r m e n than n e c e s s a r y are employed u s i n g more of s o c i e t y ' s r e s o u r c e s than r e q u i r e d . T h i s not o n l y means t h a t e x c e s s i v e c a p i t a l i s used but t h a t s o c i e t y a l s o has t o do w i t h o u t the e x t r a goods and s e r v i c e s t h a t 11 c o u l d be produced i f the unnecessary f i s h e r m e n were employed e l s e w h e r e i n the economy ( C h r i s t y and S c o t t , 1965). E x c e s s i v e l a b o u r i n p u t s a l s o mean t h a t average incomes a r e much lower than they would be under c o n d i t i o n s m a x i m i z i n g economic r e n t . In s h o r t , e c o n o m i s t s argued t h a t the purpose of f i s h e r i e s management " s h o u l d be t o promote the h i g h e s t e f f i c i e n c y i n the use of v e s s e l s and f i s h e r m e n " ( B e l l , 1977, p. 9 ) . In o t h e r words, m a x i m i z a t i o n of economic r e n t was re g a r d e d as the be s t c r i t e r i o n of economic e f f i c i e n c y and hence the r a t i o n a l g o a l of f i s h e r i e s management. Indeed, C h r i s t y and S c o t t (1965) equate maximum economic e f f i c i e n c y w i t h r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n . C r u t c h f i e l d (1979, p. 743) i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n o r d e r t o a t t a i n economic e f f i c i e n c y , the f i s h e r i e s would have t o undergo r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n , i . e . "the r e a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s under open-access t o a c o n t r o l l e d system d e s i g n e d t o maximize the n e t v a l u e of p r o d u c t i o n " . Both d e f i n i t i o n s i m p l y a r e d u c t i o n i n the amount of e f f o r t from t h a t which s u p p r e s s e s s t o c k s t o G i towards t h a t r e q u i r e d t o produce F i . P o n t e c o r v o (1977, p. 67) s u p p o r t e d t h i s by p o i n t i n g out t h a t " e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of ( f i s h e r i e s ) r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e s t h a t a t r a n s f e r of c a p i t a l and l a b o u r out of the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y " s h o u l d be encouraged t o l e v e l s which "would not d e c r e a s e the v a l u e of o u t p u t " from the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . C r u t c h f i e l d (1962, p. 384) a l s o i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n a "more fundamental sense, i t must be emphasized t h a t maximum employment f o r a g i v e n output i s a n o n s e n s i c a l o b j e c t i v e " . F i n a l l y , Pearse (1979, p. 9) i m p l i e d a s i m i l a r r e d u c t i o n of f i s h i n g e f f o r t by s t a t i n g t h a t "the most c o n s p i c u o u s s o u r c e of p r o d u c t i o n i n e f f i c i e n c y i s employment of e x c e s s i v e and redundant 12 l a b o u r and c a p i t a l t o take the c a t c h i n a p o t e n t i a l l y p r o f i t a b l e f i s h e r y " . L i m i t a t i o n s i n the Theory At the h e a r t of the t r a d i t i o n a l economic argument i s the b e l i e f t h a t f i s h e r i e s management d e c i s i o n s s h o u l d r e f l e c t t h i s c o n c e r n f o r m i n i m i z i n g the amount of "wasted" e f f o r t . For a number of r e a s o n s , however, t h i s has not o f t e n been the cas e . C h r i s t y and S c o t t (1965, p. 223) s t a t e t h a t i n a d v o c a t i n g a r e d u c t i o n of f i s h e r m e n , f o r i n s t a n c e , e conomists assume "(a) t h a t the g a i n t o the i n d u s t r y would be g r e a t enough t o compensate th o s e who l o s t and t h a t such compensation would a c t u a l l y be p a i d or (b) t h a t compensation would not be n e c e s s a r y because s o c i e t y would s w i f t l y and p a i n l e s s l y t r a n s f e r those who l o s t i n t o e q u a l l y a t t r a c t i v e j o b s e l s e w h e r e " . In many i n s t a n c e s , however, one or both of t h e s e assumptions a r e i n v a l i d . S c o t t (1957), f o r example, s u g g e s t s t h a t the m i s a l l o c a t i o n of r e s o u r c e s t h a t r e s u l t s from h a v i n g too many f i s h e r m e n i s not n e c e s s a r i l y a n e g a t i v e t h i n g from s o c i e t y ' s p o i n t of view because the " s u f f e r e r s " a r e the f i s h e r m e n . He i n d i c a t e d t h a t a change i n t e n u r e might o n l y b e n e f i t t h o s e f i s h e r m e n l e f t i n the h a r v e s t i n g s e c t o r because they would r e c e i v e h i g h e r wages. Compensation t o the d i s p l a c e d f i s h e r m e n , however, would have t o be made by s o c i e t y a t l a r g e ( S c o t t , 1957). S c o t t (1957) s t a t e d t h a t t h i s would have t o i n c l u d e some o t h e r source of income which the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y , by reason of the v e r y need f o r r e d u c t i o n of s i z e i n the f i r s t p l a c e , would be unable t o 13 p r o v i d e . The a ssumption t h a t the g a i n t o the i n d u s t r y from a r e d u c t i o n of f i s h e r m e n would a c t u a l l y be used t o compensate those t h a t were d i s p l a c e d i s t h e r e f o r e r a t h e r tenuous. More s e r i o u s s t i l l a r e the l i m i t a t i o n s of the assumption t h a t s o c i e t y c o u l d " s w i f t l y and p a i n l e s s l y " t r a n s f e r d i s p l a c e d f i s h e r m e n t o o t h e r j o b s . C r u t c h f i e l d (1972, p. 78) p o i n t e d out t h a t the "economic, s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l i s o l a t i o n of f i s h e r m e n makes them p a r t i c u l a r l y immobile" and t h a t i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o p l a c e them i n a l t e r n a t i v e employment. Lokken (1959, p. 80) i n d i c a t e d t h a t " f i s h e r m e n c a n ' t move or be moved t h a t e a s i l y , and t h e i r needs and views must be c o n s i d e r e d i n f r a m i n g a r e g u l a t o r y programme". In a d d i t i o n , S c o t t (1957, p. 437) s t a t e d t h a t f i s h i n g l a b o u r i s immobile because i t i s " g e o g r a p h i c a l l y and i n d u s t r i a l l y u n a d a p t a b l e " . F i n a l l y , ' C auvin (1979, p. 829) noted t h a t f i s h e r m e n have "few employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h a t a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e i r s k i l l s and e x p e r i e n c e s " . A p a r t from the f l a w s w i t h the assumptions r e g a r d i n g the r e d u c t i o n of f i s h i n g l a b o u r , o t h e r c o n s t r a i n t s have l i m i t e d the w i d e s p r e a d use of maximum economic r e n t as the major f i s h e r i e s management o b j e c t i v e . One of t h e s e i s an e x p a n s i o n of the p o i n t r a i s e d e a r l i e r when S c o t t (1957) noted t h a t s o c i e t y might have t o p r o v i d e the d i s p l a c e d f i s h e r m e n w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e s of income. E s s e n t i a l l y , S c o t t r a i s e d the i s s u e t h a t the e x t e r n a l i t i e s caused by i n c r e a s i n g e f f i c i e n c y i n a f i s h e r y may outweigh the b e n e f i t s so gained... C h r i s t y and S c o t t (1965, p. 11), f o r example, s u g g e s t e d t h a t " t h e o r e t i c a l l y , a t l e a s t , i t i s 14 p o s s i b l e t o q u e s t i o n whether or not s o c i e t y would be b e t t e r o f f by r e s t r i c t i n g e n t r y . The .... p o s s i b i l i t y of r a i s e d p r i c e s t o the consumer because of o l i g o p o l y and .... h i g h movement c o s t s ( t o move d i s p l a c e d workers) p l u s l a c k of o u t s i d e employment may mean t h a t o t h e r goods and s e r v i c e s produced (by d i s p l a c e d w orkers) a r e more than o f f s e t by the c o s t s of d i s p l a c e m e n t " . C r u t c h f i e l d (1972, p.78) s t a t e d t h a t " i t may even be t h a t e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i a a r e s a t i s f i e d i f e x c e s s i v e l a b o u r i n p u t s t o the f i s h e r y a r e l e s s c o s t l y than a l t e r n a t i v e ways of p r o v i d i n g (them w i t h ) minimum a c c e p t a b l e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s " . Both C r u t c h f i e l d (1972) and Mackenzie (1979) have e l a b o r a t e d upon t h i s by s t a t i n g t h a t , because of l a b o u r i m m o b i l i t y and the n a t u r e of the s k i l l s , the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t f o r f i s h i n g l a b o u r i f not z e r o - i s v e r y low. P r o v i d i n g d i s p l a c e d f i s h e r m e n w i t h j o b s elsewhere i n the economy where the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s are much h i g h e r , t h e r e f o r e , means t h a t , i n the l o n g r u n , t h i s l a b o u r w i l l demand a h i g h e r pay l e v e l . Once a g a i n , s o c i e t y may be b e t t e r o f f k e e p i n g t h i s l a b o u r i n the f i s h e r y and p a y i n g i t a s m a l l e r wage, e s p e c i a l l y i f the economy i s not a t or near f u l l employment. Rogers (1979, p. 787) a l s o viewed the i m m o b i l i t y of f i s h i n g l a b o u r as a s e r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t and suggested t h a t " i f l a b o u r e r s a r e , i n f a c t , not moveable or r e t r a i n a b l e or combinable w i t h o t h e r m o b i l e f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n , then economic e f f i c i e n c y may d i c t a t e the maintenance of the l e s s c o m p e t i t i v e f i s h e r m e n a t the expense of the more s u c c e s s f u l " . C r u t c h f i e l d (1979, p. 747) i n d i c a t e d t h a t an a d d i t i o n a l economic l i m i t a t i o n t o the maximum r e n t o b j e c t i v e i s t h a t "many 1 5 f i s h e r i e s a r e not s u i t a b l e c a n d i d a t e s f o r l i m i t e d e n t r y programmes because the c o s t of d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n and the management framework n e c e s s a r y t o u t i l i z e i t e f f i c i e n t l y would exceed any b e n e f i t s t h a t might a c c r u e " . He a l s o added t h a t "most a n a l y s e s have tended t o assume t h a t "economic e f f i c i e n c y would be improved i f the f i s h e r y were t o s h i f t more and more t o p r o f e s s i o n a l , f u l l - t i m e f i s h e r m e n .... (but) .... i n i s o l a t e d communities a working s c h e d u l e t h a t combines the s e a s o n a l h a r v e s t i n g of f i s h w i t h complimentary a g r i c u l t u r e would be more e f f i c i e n t " ( C r u t c h f i e l d , 1979, p. 748). Another c o n s t r a i n t l i m i t i n g the use of the maximum economic r e n t c r i t e r i o n as the major f i s h e r i e s management t o o l i s s o c i a l and/or p o l i t i c a l i n n a t u r e . E s s e n t i a l l y , those t o be d i s p l a c e d from a f i s h e r y do not view the s i t u a t i o n i n the same l i g h t as do the e c o n o m i s t s and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , r e s i s t any move they p e r c e i v e as j e o p a r d i z i n g t h e i r l i v l i h o o d . T u s s i n g (1979, p. 480), commenting on l i m i t e d e n t r y i n the A l a s k a n salmon f i s h e r y , f o r i n s t a n c e , noted t h a t : "the c o n c e r n w i t h a l l o c a t i o n e f f i c i e n c y i s a p r o f e s s i o n a l i d i o s y n c r a c y of e c o n o m i s t s ; the o r d i n a r y c i t i z e n assumes i m m o b i l i t y and t a k e s the p o s s i b i l i t y of s t r u c t u r a l unemployment v e r y s e r i o u s l y . He t h e r e f o r e r e g a r d s ' j o b c r e a t i o n ' as h a v i n g more m e r i t than c o s t r e d u c t i o n . I f a p h y s i c a l h a r v e s t which i s c o n s t a n t over time can indeed p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t y incomes f o r ever g r e a t e r numbers of f i s h e r m e n , perhaps the e x i s t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n of the r e s o u r c e i s a t r u l y w o n d e r f u l i n n o v a t i o n " . N e e d i e r (1979, p. 723) v o i c e d a s i m i l a r o p i n i o n when he n o t e d t h a t : "The d o c t r i n a i r e e c o n o m i s t , v i e w i n g a f i s h e r y , might 1 6 be i n c l i n e d t o count wages ( i n c l u d i n g r e t u r n s t o f i s h e r m e n ) as a c o s t and t o c o n c e n t r a t e on m a x i m i z i n g the "economic r e n t " and p r e v e n t i n g i t s d i s s i p a t i o n ; the f i s h i n g community c a r e s l i t t l e about the o v e r a l l p r o f i t as l o n g as i t i s enough t o keep the whole show g o i n g . The economist i s prone t o r e g a r d l a b o u r ( i n c l u d i n g f i s h e r m e n ) as m o b i l e and t o say t h a t l a b o u r s h o u l d seek some o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n i f i t s r e t u r n i s below the n a t i o n a l average; most f i s h e r m e n are r e l u c t a n t t o l e a v e e i t h e r t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n or t h e i r l o c a l e and, i n r e c e n t y e a r s , get no encouragement from the f a t e of many who have l e f t the s m a l l community f o r the l a r g e " . James (1959) s t a t e d t h a t p e o p l e w i l l use p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e to i n f l u e n c e d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t i n g t h e i r j o b s and i n d i c a t e d t h a t a management scheme t o i n c r e a s e r e n t i n the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y of the S t a t e of M a r y l a n d by r e d u c i n g the number of p a r t i c i p a n t s was t h w a r t e d i n such a manner. Other i n s t a n c e s where " s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s " , i . e . the j o b s and w e l l b e i n g of p e o p l e , have a f f e c t e d f i s h e r i e s management d e c i s i o n s are p r e v a l e n t i n the l i t e r a t u r e . Lokken (1959), f o r i n s t a n c e , p o i n t e d out t h a t the P a c i f i c h a l i b u t f i s h e r y was not managed f o r m a x i m i z a t i o n of economic r e n t out of c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r the r e p e r c u s s i o n s t o the f i s h e r m e n i n v o l v e d . Both A d a s i a k (1979) and Rogers (1979) noted t h a t management p l a n s t o i n c r e a s e r e n t s i n the A l a s k a n salmon f i s h e r y by l i m i t i n g e n t r y was i n f l u e n c e d by s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . E n t r y i n t o the f i s h e r y was r e s t r i c t e d but not t o the e x t e n t t h a t undue h a r d s h i p f e l l upon s m a l l communities where f i s h i n g formed a s m a l l but i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e of income ( A d a s i a k , 1979). S i m i l a r l y , M i t c h e l l (1979) suggested t h a t s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s p l a y e d an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g the shape of the management regime f o r the B.C. salmon f i s h e r y . L i c e n s i n g was i n t r o d u c e d t o c o n t r o l e n t r y but was not s t r u c t u r e d so t h a t 1 7 e x i s t i n g salmon f i s h e r m e n would be f o r c e d out of the i n d u s t r y . A f i n a l c o n s t r a i n t i s the f a c t t h a t the d e t e r m i n i s t i c b i o l o g i c a l model on which r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n i s founded i s a t h e o r e t i c a l o v e r - s i m p l i f i c a t i o n of d e n s i t y dependent p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l f o r f i s h s t o c k s . Stock r e c r u i t m e n t , i n f a c t , i s s u b j e c t t o extreme and wide f l u c t u a t i o n s because of e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a r i a t i o n s i n water t e m p e r a t u r e , s a l i n i t y and a v a i l a b l e n u t r i e n t s u p p l i e s and t h e i r marked impact on p r e - r e c r u i t m e n t m o r t a l i t y ( G r a n t , 1934; P i n h o r n , 1976; and S i l v e r t , 1977). Sandeman (1977), f o r example, has i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n 1958 and 1959 r e c r u i t m e n t t o the A t l a n t i c h e r r i n g s t o c k was more than 100 tim e s g r e a t e r than normal w h i l e r e c r u i t m e n t t o the r e d f i s h s t o c k had been obse r v e d t o be n e g l i g i b l e f o r as much as e i g h t y e a r s i n row. The u n r e l i a b i l i t y of the b i o l o g i c a l models i s i n c r e a s e d f u r t h e r m o r e by the f a c t t h a t they do not c o n s i d e r i n t e r - s p e c i e s r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The u n c e r t a i n t y s u r r o u n d i n g the b i o l o g y of f i s h s t o c k r e c r u i t m e n t i s a p t l y d e s c r i b e d by Sandeman (1977, p. 103) as f o l l o w s : the d e t e r m i n i s t i c models used not o n l y p r o v i d e no i n f o r m a t i o n about the r e l a t i v e e r r o r s i n the e s t i m a t e s , but a l s o i n g e n e r a l c o m p l e t e l y i g n o r e the i m p o r t a n t i n t e r s p e c i f i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t e x i s t i n the ecosystem. The models, t h e r e f o r e , a r e c o n s i d e r e d by some t o be c o m p l e t e l y i n a d e q u a t e " . In s h o r t , a p p l i c a t i o n of the maximum economic r e n t c r i t e r i o n has, f o r a number of r e a s o n s , been l i m i t e d . These i n c l u d e u n c e r t a i n t y about the u n d e r l y i n g economic a s s u m p t i o n s , the economic b e n e f i t s t h a t would r e s u l t and the b i o l o g i c a l model upon.which r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n i s based. S o c i a l r e s i s t a n c e and 18 p u b l i c c h o i c e a r e a l s o f a c t o r s . In a d d i t i o n , s e v e r a l a u t h o r s have argued t h a t maximum economic e f f i c i e n c y may i n f a c t be o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h the maintenance of " e x c e s s i v e " employment i n the f i s h e r y . These l i m i t a t i o n s p l a c e c o n t r a i n t s on the r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n o b j e c t i v e but do n o t , however, negate the i m p o r t a n t r o l e t h a t economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s p l a y i n f i s h e r i e s management; they merely q u a l i f y t h a t r o l e . C r u t c h f i e l d (1977, p. 18), f o r i n s t a n c e , has r e c e n t l y w r i t t e n t h a t the p r i m a r y g o a l of f i s h e r i e s management i s "some composite of human w e l l - b e i n g " which i s "not measured s o l e l y by net economic b e n e f i t s i n the narrow monetary sense s i n c e c o n s i d e r a t i o n must be g i v e n t o income d i s t r i b u t i o n , employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s and o t h e r s o c i a l a s p e c t s " . Y e t , he a l s o added t h a t "economic m a x i m i z a t i o n r e p r e s e n t s a b a s i c s t a r t i n g p o i n t ; i f f o r no o t h e r reason than t h a t p e r i p h e r a l s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s can be met more r e a d i l y i f the f i s h e r y i s on a sound economic f o o t i n g " ( C r u t c h f i e l d , 1977, p. 18). S i m i l a r l y , R o t h s c h i l d (1971, p. 5) has s t a t e d t h a t " w h i l e t h e economic g o a l s are undoubtedly the g o a l s t h a t our f i s h i n g system s h o u l d f o l l o w .... the best a l l o c a t i o n i s t h a t which makes the g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the q u a l i t y of l i f e of the i n d i v i d u a l s t h a t own, h a r v e s t and p r o c e s s the r e s o u r c e " . F i n a l l y , the Government of Canada (1977b, p. 1) r e c e n t l y announced t h a t the " p r i n c i p l e o b j e c t i v e of Canadian f i s h e r i e s p o l i c y i s t o d e r i v e the best o v e r a l l b e n e f i t s f o r Canadians i n g e n e r a l and f i s h e r m e n i n p a r t i c u l a r " but s t a t e d t h a t b oth economic and s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s a r e i n v o l v e d . 1 9 Thus, f i s h e r i e s management has changed d r a m a t i c a l l y s i n c e e conomists f i r s t c h a l l e n g e d the m a x i m i z a t i o n of b i o p h y s i c a l y i e l d s as the recommended management regime. From an e a r l y c o ncern w i t h m a x i m i z i n g economic r e n t s , f i s h e r i e s management has added s e v e r a l d i m e n s i o n s and now g i v e s c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o a host of a d d i t i o n a l economic and s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s . D e c i s i o n Framework Re g a r d i n g the Newfoundland f i s h e r y , the i s s u e under c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s which h a r v e s t i n g s e c t o r ought t o be g i v e n p r i o r i t y i n the f u t u r e e x p l o i t a t i o n of n o r t h e r n cod. The l i t e r a t u r e p r e v i o u s l y r e v i e w e d o u t l i n e s t h a t t h e major management c o n c e r n s are w i t h u t i l i z a t i o n of the r e s o u r c e on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s , economic e f f i c i e n c y and s a t i s f a c t i o n of s o c i a l c o n c e r n s . An a p p r o p r i a t e s e t of c r i t e r i a t o e v a l u a t e management s t r a t e g i e s f o r the Newfoundland f i s h e r y i s suggested below. R e s o u r c e - r e l a t e d c r i t e r i a ( 1 ) A b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t the cod s t o c k s : S i n c e the two s e c t o r s a re e s s e n t i a l l y competing f o r the m i g r a t o r y cod, i t i s fundamental t h a t t h e i r c a p a b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t t h i s r e s o u r c e be c o n s i d e r e d a c r i t e r i o n f o r e v a l u a t i o n . T h i s p r o v i d e s i n d i c a t o r s f o r d e t e r m i n i n g whether p l a c i n g p r i o r i t y w i t h e i t h e r s e c t o r would r e s u l t i n the f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n of the t o t a l a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of cod. I f one s e c t o r cannot f u l l y u t i l i z e the r e s o u r c e , 20 i t can be c o n c l u d e d t h a t p l a c i n g p r i o r i t y w i t h i t would be an i n e f f i c i e n t way t o manage the r e s o u r c e . (2) A b i l i t y t o ensure c o n t i n u e d , l o n g term h a r v e s t i n g : The f i s h e r y of Newfoundland i s viewed as a s u s t a i n a b l e r e s o u r c e which can y i e l d l o n g term b e n e f i t s t o both the P r o v i n c e and s o c i e t y as a whole. A fundamental management c o n c e r n , t h e r e f o r e , i s t h a t the s t o c k s do not become o v e r - e x p l o i t e d . I f , f o r i n s t a n c e , one s e c t o r d i s p l a y s an apparent c a p a b i l i t y t o d e p l e t e the s t o c k s much more so than the o t h e r , then i t may not be the most a t t r a c t i v e f o r the l o n g term management of the r e s o u r c e . Thus, a second e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s the p h y s i c a l c a p a b i l i t y of each s e c t o r t o h a r v e s t cod w i t h o u t o v e r - e x p l o i t i n g the s t o c k . Economic c r i t e r i a (3) M a x i m i z a t i o n of Economic Rent: The f i s h e r i e s l i t e r a t u r e o u t l i n e s t h a t a key o b j e c t i v e of f i s h e r i e s management i s t o g e n e r a t e the h i g h e s t economic r e n t . In a s t r i c t economic sense t h e n , i t f o l l o w s t h a t a t h i r d e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s which s e c t o r l a n d s f i s h most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e l y . (4) M a x i m i z a t i o n of Economic E f f i c i e n c y : The l i t e r a t u r e a l s o s u g g e s t s , however, t h a t m a x i m i z a t i o n of economic r e n t i s o n l y an a c c e p t e d t e n e t d u r i n g p e r i o d s of f u l l employment. O t h e r w i s e , i m m o b i l i t y of l a b o u r , low o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s and c o m b i n a t i o n of f i s h i n g w i t h o t h e r economic a c t i v i t i e s may mean t h a t economic e f f i c i e n c y i s f u l f i l l e d by m a i n t a i n i n g o v e r -2 1 employment i n a f i s h e r y . Thus, a f o u r t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s which s e c t o r c o n t r i b u t e s most t o economic e f f i c i e n c y v i s a v i s g e n e r a t i o n of employment as w e l l as c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h supplementary a c t i v i t i e s and r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s . In the event t h a t "economic e f f i c i e n c y " as d e f i n e d i s b e t t e r s a t i s f i e d than m a x i m i z a t i o n of r e n t , the l a t t e r c r i t e r i o n w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d s u b o r d i n a t e t o the former. The r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s i n c l u d e d , however, because t h e r e may be i m p o r t a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the two t h a t would o t h e r w i s e go u n n o t i c e d . (5) P l a n t U t i l i z a t i o n : The o f f s h o r e p r o c e s s o r s have p o i n t e d t o the f a c t t h a t one of the most i m p o r t a n t a t t r i b u t e s of o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g i s t h a t i t c o n t r i b u t e s t o i n c r e a s e d p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . I t i s t h e r e f o r e a p p r o p r i a t e t h a t a f i f t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n be the impact t h a t each h a r v e s t i n g s e c t o r has on p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . By v i t u e of the f o u r t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n , however, the most a t t r a c t i v e s e c t o r may be t h a t which g e n e r a t e s the g r e a t e s t number of j o b s i n p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s and i s most c o m p a t i b l e w i t h supplementary economic a c t i v i t i e s ; not n e c e s s a r i l y t h a t which promotes g r e a t e s t economic e f f i c i e n c y of p l a n t use. S o c i a l c r i t e r i a ( 6 ) S a t i s f a c t i o n of S o c i a l Concerns: The l i t e r a t u r e has r e v e a l e d t h a t an i n t e g r a l a s p e c t of f i s h e r i e s management i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s of the p e o p l e t h a t depend on the f i s h e r y f o r t h e i r l i v e l i h o o d . I t has been 22 i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t i n numerous i n s t a n c e s economic o b j e c t i v e s have been s e t a s i d e out of concern f o r the s o c i a l g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s of the p e o p l e . Indeed, the b a s i c purpose of f i s h e r i e s management i s t o make the g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the " q u a l i t y of l i f e " ( R o t h s c h i l d , 1971, p. 4) and t h i s u n doubtedly e n t a i l s s o c i a l i s s u e s . I t i s t h e r e f o r e f i t t i n g t h a t a s i x t h c r i t e r i o n be an e v a l u a t i o n of the a b i l i t y of both s e c t o r s t o f u l f i l l the s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s of the Newfoundland p e o p l e . The Problem of E v a l u a t i o n The f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n of f i s h e r i e s management and p a r t i c u l a r l y the economic c o n c e r n s f o c u s s e d on f a c t o r s and v a l u e s t h a t , d e s p i t e t h e o r e t i c a l problems, a r e r e l a t i v e l y easy t o measure and e v a l u a t e . F i s h e r i e s management i n Newfoundland, however, i n v o l v e s a range, of l e s s t a n g i b l e v a l u e s t h a t do not l e n d t hemselves so r e a d i l y t o q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s . We have touched upon t h i s i n our c o n s i d e r a t i o n of s o c i o p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s i n f i s h e r i e s management, but the p o i n t r e q u i r e s f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n the p r e s e n t c o n t e x t . Many q u a n t i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s , such as c o s t -b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s , have atte m p t e d t o i n c o r p o r a t e i n t a n g i b l e v a l u e s by q u a n t i f y i n g the q u a l i t a t i v e t h r o u g h the use of shadow p r i c e s . Recent l i t e r a t u r e i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l economics, however, has i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t t h i s i s not s a t i s f a c t o r y . E h r e n f e l d (1978), f o r i n s t a n c e , has u n d e r s c o r e d t h i s by d e s c r i b i n g the d i f f i c u l t i e s t h a t a r e met when a t t e m p t s a r e made t o p r o t e c t 23 e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a l u e s from commercial development. He p o i n t e d out t h a t modern i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s a r e dominated by the " c u l t of re a s o n " and an e s s e n t i a l l y h u m a n i s t i c p e r s p e c t i v e t h a t r e s u l t s i n an e n t i r e l y u t i l i t a r i a n approach t o n a t u r e . E h r e n f e l d (1978, p. 177) noted t h a t t h i s man-centred view of the w o r l d demands a " l o g i c a l and p r a c t i c a l reason f o r s a v i n g each and every p a r t of the w o r l d we wi s h t o p r e s e r v e " . . A s a r e s u l t , "those p a r t s of the n a t u r a l w o r l d t h a t a r e not known t o be u s e f u l t o us a r e c o n s i d e r e d w o r t h l e s s u n t i l some p r e v i o u s l y unsuspected v a l u e i s d i s c o v e r e d " ( E h r e n f e l d , 1978, p. 177). L e o p o l d (1966, p. 266) noted t h a t one response t o t h i s has been t h a t "when one of these non-economic v a l u e s i s t h r e a t e n e d and i f we happen t o l o v e i t , we i n v e n t s u b t e r f u g e s t o g i v e i t economic i m p o r t a n c e " , i . e . we c o n t r i v e an economic v a l u e f o r i t . C o n s e r v a t i o n i s t s have attempted t o p r e s e r v e marshlands from commercial development, f o r i n s t a n c e , by p l a c i n g a d o l l a r v a l u e on t h e i r n a t u r a l p r o p e r t i e s of p u r i f y i n g waste water. As E n r e n f e l d (1978) and Rees (1979) have i l l u s t r a t e d , however, the f a t a l f l a w w i t h t h i s i s t h a t once c o n s e r v a t i o n i s t s have a c c e p t e d pure economic v a l u e s as the s o l e c r i t e r i o n f o r r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n , they have n o t h i n g t o f a l l -back upon a t the b a r g a i n i n g t a b l e . They may attempt t o a s c r i b e economic v a l u e t o some e s s e n t i a l l y i n t a n g i b l e r e s o u r c e i n an e f f o r t t o p r o t e c t i t from a l t e r n a t e development. However, when the v a l u e of some more w i d e l y r e c o g n i z e d commercial use of a r e s o u r c e exceeds the " c o n t r i v e d " v a l u e , they a re bound by the adopted economic r a t i o n a l e t o a c c e p t the s a c r i f i c e of what i n f a c t a non-24 economic v a l u e . T h i s l e a d Rees (1979, p. 9) t o c o n c l u d e t h a t " q u a n t i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s such as b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s a r e i n h e r e n t l y b i a s e d and s i m p l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e t o o l s f o r making d e c i s i o n s about the v a l u e s we were r e a l l y t r y i n g so d e s p e r a t e l y t o r a t i o n a l i z e " . S i m i l a r l y , economic e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s are u n s u i t a b l e t o o l s f o r making d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g p u r e l y s o c i a l v a l u e s . C o n s i d e r , f o r i n s t a n c e , a r e t i r e d schooner c a p t a i n who, d e s p i t e h i s age and a s u f f i c i e n t r e t i r e m e n t income, s t i l l d a b b l e s i n the f i s h e r y . Assume he f i s h e s o n l y f o r salmon and l o b s t e r from a s m a l l , open boat. In the w i n t e r he sews salmon n e t s and c o n s t r u c t s l o b s t e r , p o t s and i n the s p r i n g he p r e p a r e s h i s boat f o r the w a t e r . D u r i n g the summer he f i s h e s - perhaps w i t h the h e l p of a grandson - and i n the f a l l he s t o r e s h i s gear and h i s v e s s e l away f o r the w i n t e r . A l s o assume t h a t he e a r n s o n l y $ 1,000 a y ear f i s h i n g but i s not r e a l l y concerned w i t h t u r n i n g a p r o f i t . R a t h e r , h i s i n t e r e s t i s t o be near the water a t the o c c u p a t i o n t o which he has d e v o t e d h i s l i f e . To c o n t i n u e f i s h i n g f o r him i s t o prove h i s c o n t i n u e d w o r t h i n e s s as a man, t o d i s p l a y h i s u n d e f e a t e d mastery of the sea and perhaps t o be a b l e t o pass a l o n g some of h i s e x p e r t i s e t o h i s grandson. To v a l u e the u t i l i t y t h a t t h a t . f i s h e r m e n r e c e i v e s from f i s h i n g a t the $ 1,000 he e a r n s from i t or t o t e l l him t h a t , f o r economic r e a s o n s , he i s no l o n g e r a l l o w e d t o c o n t i n u e f i s h i n g i s s i m p l y inhumane. There may i n f a c t be no economic measure t h a t would a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t the v a l u e t h a t he r e c e i v e s from f i s h i n g or would persuade him t o g i v e i t up. Any attempt t o p l a c e an 25 economic v a l u e on the s o c i a l u t i l i t y he d e r i v e s from f i s h i n g , t h e r e f o r e , may be i n a p p r o p r i a t e . The i n a b i l i t y of economic a n a l y t i c t e c h n i q u e s t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h non-monet'ary v a l u e s has l e d t o the development of " s o c i a l impact assessment". S h i e l d s (1975) notes t h a t " s o c i a l i m p a c t s " i n v o l v e a d a p t a t i o n s on the p a r t of s o c i a l systems t o " e x t e r n a l " a g ents of change. Ols e n and Merwin (1978, p. 44) add t h a t " s o c i a l impacts r e f e r t o a l l changes i n the s t r u c t u r e and f u n c t i o n i n g of p a t t e r n e d s o c i a l o r d e r i n g t h a t occur i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h an e n v i r o n m e n t a l , t e c h n o l o g i c a l or s o c i a l i n n o v a t i o n or a l t e r a t i o n " . F i n s t e r b u s c h (1978a) s t a t e s t h a t , i n broad terms, s o c i a l impact assessment t h e r e f o r e a t t e m p t s t o d e termine the f u l l range of c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s of a c t i o n . Many r e s e a r c h e r s see s o c i a l impact assessment as a t t e m p t i n g t o measure the " q u a l i t y of l i f e " . (See: F i n s t e r b u s c h , 1978b; O l s e n and Merwin, 1978; and L i u , 1978). The n o t i o n of a t e c h n i q u e t h a t spans both q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e elements and e n a b l e s d e c i s i o n makers t o d e t e r m i n e which development a l t e r n a t i v e would c o n t r i b u t e most t o the " q u a l i t y of l i f e " i s i n d e e d an a t t r a c t i v e one. I t i s , however, f r a u g h t w i t h d i f f i c u l t y because any d e f i n i t i o n of " q u a l i t y of l i f e " i s based on a v a l u e judgement and t h e r e i s no s t a n d a r d on what s h o u l d be i n c l u d e d as measures or i n d i c a t o r s of i t ; O l s e n and Merwin (1978), f o r example, used 55 i n d i c a t o r s t o d etermine " q u a l i t y of l i f e " w h i l e L i u (1978) used 123. As O l s e n and Merwin (1978, p. 26 43) have no t e d : " S o c i a l impact assessment i s s e v e r e l y hampered by the l a c k of a s t a n d a r d methodology. Thus f a r , v i r t u a l l y a l l s o c i a l impact assessments have been made on an ad  hoc b a s i s , w i t h no attempt t o ground the work on any k i n d of t h e o r e t i c a l f o u n d a t i o n or t o employ a methodology t h a t c o u l d be r e p l i c a t e d by o t h e r s .... As a r e s u l t , we do not a t the p r e s e n t time have a sound e m p i r i c a l base from which t o d e r i v e s o c i a l impact assessments." T h i s v i e w p o i n t i s a l s o s u p p o r t e d by F i n s t e r b u s c h (1978a), L i u (1978), Sassone (1978) and S h i e l d s (1975). G i v e n the t h e o r e t i c a l and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l weaknesses of s o c i a l impact assessment, the problem of comparing d i f f u s e q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e c r i t e r i a may seem u n s o l v a b l e . F i n s t e r b u s c h and Wolf (1978), however, have t h e r e f o r e suggested t h a t the s o c i a l impacts of a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s might b e s t be a n a l y z e d u s i n g the c r i t e r i a put f o r t h by those most d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d . In o t h e r words, the v a l u e s of the peopl e can be used t o make the d e c i s i o n between incommensurable v a r i a b l e s . Indeed, i n a d e m o c r a t i c s o c i e t y , t h i s i s how one would expect d e c i s i o n s t o be made. Downs (1967) has w r i t t e n t h a t even though p o l i t i c i a n s may.only be i n t e r e s t e d i n a c i t i z e n ' s v o t e , they must c a t e r t o t h a t c i t i z e n ' s w e l f a r e i n o r d e r t o get h i s v o t e . Brown (1981, p. 17) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t , i n .making d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e i r w e l f a r e , " i n d i v i d u a l s have p r e f e r e n c e s which d e t e r m i n e t h e i r d e c i s i o n s and they w i l l a c t i n such a way as t o p r o v i d e themselves the g r e a t e s t net b e n e f i t s as weighed by the s e p r e f e r e n c e s " . The v a l u e s of the people d e t e r m i n e t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s which, i n t u r n , s h o u l d d i r e c t the b e h a v i o u r of p o l i t i c i a n s . 27 T h i s a p p r o a c h , however, i s not s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r e v a l u a t i n g a f i s h e r y . C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the " s o c i a l c o n c e r n s " or " v a l u e s " of the people i s i d e n t i f i e d i n the f i s h e r i e s l i t e r a t u r e as b e i n g a management o b j e c t i v e . To use i t as the d e c i d i n g f a c t o r i n e v a l u a t i n g f i s h e r y o p t i o n s would t h e r e f o r e b i a s the r e s u l t s and would undermine the v a l u e of c a r r y i n g out o t h e r a n a l y s e s . To a v o i d ' t h i s problem, t h i s t h e s i s w i l l r e a c h a d e c i s i o n between the two s e c t o r s of the Newfoundland f i s h e r y o n l y i f one s e c t o r has a l l the b e n e f i t s . O t h e r w i s e , i t w i l l be c o n c l u d e d t h a t n e i t h e r s e c t o r has any advantages over the o t h e r and t h a t p r i o r i t y i n the f u t u r e a l l o c a t i o n of cod c o u l d j u s t i f i a b l y have been p l a c e d w i t h e i t h e r . B e f o r e a n a l y s i s of the c r i t e r i a o u t l i n e d h e r e i n i s i n i t i a t e d , however, i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o have a f i r m u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the c o m p l e x i t y of the i s s u e a t hand. A b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n of the changes t h a t have t a k e n p l a c e i n the Newfoundland f i s h e r y from the days of the s a l t cod f i s h e r y t o the e x t e n s i o n of f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n i s t h e r e f o r e p r o v i d e d . I t i s o n l y w i t h a h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e t h a t a f u l l a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r the i n t r i c a c i e s of the Newfoundland f i s h e r y can be a t t a i n e d . 28 I I I : HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF THE INSHORE-OFFSHORE CONFLICT E a r l y Background The P r o v i n c e of Newfoundland was i n i t i a l l y s e t t l e d f o r the p u r s u i t of the s a l t cod f i s h e r y . F i s h formed the backbone of the economy and as l a t e as t h e e a r l y 1900*s r e p r e s e n t e d 85% of t o t a l e x p o r t s (Munro, 1980). S e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s r e f l e c t e d t h i s dependence on the s e a : 1,300 f i s h i n g communities - the " o u t p o r t s " - d o t t e d the I s l a n d ' s 6,000 m i l e s of c o a s t l i n e w h i l e the i n t e r i o r remained v i r t u a l l y u n i n h a b i t e d u n t i l the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of the Grand F a l l s paper m i l l i n 1904 (Canning and I n g l i s , 1977). The s a l t cod f i s h e r y was a s e a s o n a l o c c u p a t i o n t h a t depended upon the s e a s o n a l shoreward m i g r a t i o n of a major s t o c k complex. I t was c a r r i e d on c l o s e t o shore and employed a " p a s s i v e " t e c h n o l o g y - b a i t e d hooks, j i g g e r s , e t c . - t h a t o n l y took the f i s h t h a t happenned upon i t . The c a t c h was then g u t t e d , s p l i t ( i . e . the backbone was removed), c u r e d w i t h s a l t and d r i e d i n the sun. N o r m a l l y the e n t i r e f a m i l y was i n v o l v e d i n p r o c e s s i n g the c a t c h . In the f a l l , when the season was c o m p l e t e , the d r i e d f i s h was s o l d t o the l o c a l merchant who a r r a n g e d f o r i t s e x p o r t . The peak of the t r a d i t i o n a l s a l t cod f i s h e r y was u s u a l l y a s i x t o e i g h t week p e r i o d from June t o August d u r i n g which the b u l k of l a n d i n g s was made. A l t h o u g h f i s h i n g and r e l a t e d 29 a c t i v i t i e s - mending n e t s , r e p a i r i n g v e s s e l s , e t c . - l a s t e d much l o n g e r , the average f i s h e r m a n was l e f t w i t h a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount of time on hand. S a l t cod, however, never commanded v e r y h i g h p r i c e s and f i s h i n g income was n o r m a l l y i n s u f f i c i e n t t o p r o v i d e f o r an a c c e p t a b l e l i v e l i h o o d . The " o f f - s e a s o n " , c o n s e q u e n t l y , was u t i l i z e d i n p r o d u c i n g income i n k i n d through h u n t i n g , t r a p p i n g , t e n d i n g gardens and c u t t i n g wood f o r both b u i l d i n g s u p p l i e s and f u e l . Through t h i s c o m b i n a t i o n of a c t i v i t i e s , an a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l of m a t e r i a l c o m f o r t was r e a l i z e d (Matthews, c i r c a 1970). The Newfoundland i n s h o r e cod f i s h e r y c o n t i n u e d almost unimpeded from a p p r o x i m a t e l y the 1750's t o the 1920's. A l e x a n d e r (1977) notes t h a t the encroachment of European i n f l u e n c e began at t h i s p o i n t w i t h the i n t r o d u c t i o n of S p a n i s h and Portuguese f l e e t s t o the Grand Banks (see map, next page). These Europeans competed w i t h the l a r g e C anadian, American and Newfoundland f l e e t s which were a l s o w e l l d e v e l o p e d by t h i s t i m e . The "bankers" - as these v e s s e l s were known - e x p l o i t e d the o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g grounds and d e p l o y e d t h e i r crewmen i n s m a l l d o r i e s t o f i s h f o r cod and haddock th r o u g h the t r a d i t i o n a l methods of h a n d l i n e s and j i g g e r s . The bankers remained on the f i s h i n g grounds throughout the summer, s a l t e d the c a t c h h e a v i l y t o compensate f o r the absence of s u n - c u r i n g , and r e t u r n e d t o p o r t o n l y w i t h a f u l l l o a d or when f a l l g a l e s became p r e v a l e n t . T h i s e a r l y bank f i s h e r y a l s o depended on p a s s i v e gear and the s t r a i n i t had on the f i s h e r y r e s o u r c e was r e l a t i v e l y l i g h t . 30 F I G U R E 2: T H E G R A N D B A N K S 3 1 In the e a r l y 1920's, however, the f i r s t t r a w l e r s were a l s o i n t r o d u c e d t o the Northwest A t l a n t i c f i s h e r y t o p r o v i d e f o r the f r e s h f i s h i n d u s t r y t h a t had s t a r t e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d i n A t l a n t i c Canada (Government of Canada, 1928). These v e s s e l s r e p r e s e n t e d a r e v o l u t i o n a r y concept i n f i s h i n g s i n c e , t h r o u g h the use of o t t e r t r a w l s , " a c t i v e " f i s h i n g gear was used f o r the f i r s t t i m e . T h i s t y p e of gear - dragged a l o n g the ocean bottom -c o u l d , i n e f f e c t , pursue f i s h and scoop v a s t q u a n t i t i e s out of the water. T h i s t e c h n i q u e seemed so e f f e c t i v e t h a t the t r a d i t i o n a l f i s h i n g i n t e r e s t s l o b b i e d a g a i n s t i t (Government of Canada, 1928). I t was f e l t t h a t the t r a w l e r s would d e p l e t e f i s h s t o c k s because they d e s t r o y e d f i s h spawn, damaged the f i s h i n g grounds and c a p t u r e d l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s of immature and unmarketable f i s h (Government of Canada, 1928). The o p p o s i t i o n was so i n t e n s e t h a t the Canadian Government p r o h i b i t e d them from f i s h i n g i n s i d e t e r r i t o r i a l l i m i t s . T e r r i t o r i a l l i m i t s , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , o n l y extended t h r e e m i l e s and the t r a w l e r s were f r e e t o f i s h o u t s i d e t h i s zone. For r easons r e l a t i n g t o poor r e f r i g e r a t i o n t e c h n o l o g y and consumer p r e j u d i c e s a g a i n s t the q u a l i t y of f r e s h f i s h p r o d u c t s , however, the development of a t r a w l e r f l e e t i n t h e Northwest A t l a n t i c d i d not r i s e d r a m a t i c a l l y u n t i l a f t e r World War I I ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). For a p e r i o d of a p p r o x i m a t e l y twenty y e a r s , t h e r e f o r e , the i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n , the bankers and the o f f s h o r e t r a w l e r s co-e x i s t e d . In the wake of World War I I , however, two r a d i c a l changes 32 o c c u r r e d which g r e a t l y a l t e r e d the fa c e of the Northwest A t l a n t i c f i s h e r y and the way of l i f e of the Newfoundland o u t p o r t s . The f i r s t of t h e s e was t h e massive b u i l d - u p of European t r a w l e r f l e e t s on the c o n t i n e n t a l s h e l f o f f Canada. The second was the d e c l i n e of the s a l t f i s h i n d u s t r y . A l e x a n d e r (1977) has devoted c o n s i d e r a b l e energy t o a n a l y z i n g the d e c l i n e of the s a l t f i s h i n d u s t r y i n Newfoundland. Among o t h e r t h i n g s , he s t a t e d t h a t the post-war economic problems t h a t many n a t i o n s f a c e d put Newfoundland's e x p o r t s i n a ve r y poor p o s i t i o n , i . e . "because of the i n s i g n i f i c a n t s i z e of her d o m e s t i c market, she was an u n a t t r a c t i v e t r a d i n g p a r t n e r f o r any of the i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s and, hence, the f i r s t t o be s a c r i f i c e d i n any t r a d e or payment c r i s i s " ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977, p. 163). He a l s o argued t h a t union w i t h Canada s h o u l d have s o l v e d t h i s problem b u t , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , d i d not. The two most im p o r t a n t reasons were the F e d e r a l Government's condemnation of the s a l t f i s h i n d u s t r y as a " h o p e l e s s r e l i c of the p a s t " and i t s b e l i e f , which was s p a r k e d by the f i s h s t i c k boom of the 1950's, t h a t the f u t u r e of the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y l a y w i t h a c o r p o r a t e l y o r g a n i z e d t r a d e i n f r o z e n f i s h p r o d u c t s t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the F e d e r a l Government d i d not s u p p o r t the s a l t f i s h i n d u s t r y . I n s t e a d , emphasis was p l a c e d w i t h the development of a f r o z e n f i s h i n d u s t r y geared t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s market ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). Without a s s i s t a n c e , the s a l t f i s h i n d u s t r y was u n a b le t o p r e v a i l a g a i n s t t h e m a r k e t i n g problems of the post-war e r a and i t a l l but v a n i s h e d ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). The bank f i s h e r y c o m p l e t e l y e x p i r e d and the t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n of s a l t f i s h 33 plummeted from a peak of 336,000 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1919 (Macdonald, 1977) t o 13,000 m e t r i c tonnes by 1968 ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). In the meantime, the f r e s h f i s h i n d u s t r y c o n t i n u e d t o expand. A s m a l l volume of s a l t f i s h i s s t i l l produced i n Newfoundland but the v a s t m a j o r i t y of f i s h e r m e n have s h i f t e d t o the p r o d u c t i o n of f r e s h f i s h f o r the f r o z e n food i n d u s t r y . The development of a f r e s h f i s h i n d u s t r y i n Newfoundland prompted the need f o r p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s . In 1953, Newfoundland had 14 f r o z e n f i s h p l a n t s but by 1956 t h i s number had s w e l l e d t o 50 ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). These p l a n t s were most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e when o p e r a t i n g on a y e a r - r o u n d b a s i s because c o n t i n u o u s o p e r a t i o n t r a n s l a t e d i n t o lower overhead c o s t s per u n i t of o u t p u t . The s e a s o n a l m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s of the major f i s h s t o c k s as w e l l as h a r s h w i n t e r f i s h i n g c o n d i t i o n s p r e v e n t e d the i n s h o r e s e c t o r from p r o v i d i n g f o r t h i s . As a r e s u l t , the major p l a n t s began t o a c q u i r e o f f s h o r e t r a w l e r s c a p a b l e of f i s h i n g the e n t i r e y e a r . By 1956, t h e s e p l a n t s were o p e r a t i n g 34 deepsea v e s s e l s ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). The I n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of O f f s h o r e F i s h i n g and the 200 M i l e L i m i t The development of o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g by Newfoundland, however, was i n s i g n i f i c a n t i n comparison w i t h the growth of o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c by f o r e i g n n a t i o n s . By 1949, c o m p e t i t i o n f o r f i s h i n t h e s e waters had i n c r e a s e d t o such a s c a l e t h a t the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Commission f o r the Northwest A t l a n t i c F i s h e r y (ICNAF) was formed t o . r e g u l a t e i t ( K o e r s , 34 1973). ICNAF was composed of f i f t e e n member n a t i o n s 1 and i t s mandate was t o manage the r e s o u r c e s of the ar e a so t h a t s t o c k s would be kept a t l e v e l s n e c e s s a r y t o s u s t a i n maximum y i e l d s ( K o e r s , 1973). To ensure i t s s u c c e s s , ICNAF's i n c o r p o r a t i o n c h a r t e r gave i t power t o impose r e s t r i c t i o n s on a l l member n a t i o n s . D e s p i t e t h i s " p o l i c e " power, u n f o r t u n a t e l y , ICNAF d i d not l i v e up t o i t s mandate. F i g u r e 4, f o r i n s t a n c e , r e v e a l s t h a t the t o t a l c a t c h of a l l s p e c i e s i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c rose from 2.144 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes i n 1959 t o a r e c o r d h i g h of 4.646 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes i n 1968 - an i c r e a s e of 217%. F i g u r e 4, however, a l s o shows t h a t s i n c e 1968 l a n d i n g s have f a l l e n and by 1976 were reduced t o 3.461 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes - a d e c r e a s e of 26%. Moreover, F i g u r e s 5 - 7 show t h a t l a n d i n g s have o n l y been m a i n t a i n e d a t h i g h l e v e l s t h r o u g h the e x p l o i t a t i o n of new s p e c i e s . M a c k e r a l l a n d i n g s ( F i g u r e 5) from 1962 t o 1973 i n c r e a s e d by a f a c t o r of f i f t y - t w o and s i m i l a r sharp i n c r e a s e s a r e shown f o r c a p e l i n ( F i g u r e 6) and s q u i d ( F i g u r e 7 ) . Fu r t h e r m o r e , F i g u r e s 8 and 9 i n d i c a t e t h a t s t o c k s t h a t were once v e r y abundant and im p o r t a n t i n terms of t o t a l l a n d i n g s have become d i m i n i s h e d over t i m e . Cod l a n d i n g s ( F i g u r e 8) reached a 1The member n a t i o n s of ICNAF i n c l u d e d Canada, Denmark, the F e d e r a l R e p u b l i c of Germany, I c e l a n d , I t a l y , J apan, Norway, P o l a n d , P o r t u g a l , S p a i n , Romania, the U n i t e d Kingdom, the U n i t e d S t a t e s of America and the Union of S o v i e t S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c s . F i g u r e 3 d e p i c t s the ICNAF c o n v e n t i o n a r e a . 35 F I G U R E 3: T H E I C N A F C O N V E N T I O N A R E A 3 6 O O o 2 0 0 0 CD CD CD C D CD C D O l "M C D I O CTl 00 0> Y E A R F I G U R E 4: T O T A L C A T C H A L L S P E C I E S , N O R T H W E S T A T L A N T I C SOURCE: ICNAF (1977) 37 UJ « 4 5 0 < CD <D CD C D C D C D C D O l 0> O ) 0) *M CO I O O l 00 -* * o> Y E A R F I G U R E 5: T O T A L C A T C H M A C K E R A L , N O R T H W E S T A T L A N T I C SOURCE'- ICNAF (1077) 38 Y E A R F I G U R E 6: T O T A L C A T C H C A P E L I N , N O R T H W E S T A T L A N T I C 80URCE: ICNAF (1977) 3 9 F I G U R E 7: T O T A L C A T C H S Q U I D , N O R T H W E S T A T L A N T I C 80URCE: ICNAF (1977) 40 1 9 0 0 5 0 0 CD AD C D C D CD CD CD cn a> d o> -4 ->t C D I O O l 0 0 - t 4 ^ - 0 ) Y E A R F I G U R E 8: T O T A L C A T C H C O D , N O R T H W E S T A T L A N T I C SOURCE: ICNAF (1977) 41 © z D C CC 1 0 5 0 111 X o I-LU O O O 9 0 0 7 5 0 O 6 0 0 4 5 0 3 0 0 1 5 0 CD C D (0 CD CD CD CD O l O ) <j) 0) - g >J * J CO f O O l CO _ L A O J Y E A R F I G U R E 9: T O T A L C A T C H H E R R I N G , N O R T H W E S T A T L A N T I C SOURCE: ICNAF (1077) 42 h i g h of 1.876 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes i n 1968 but f e l l by 1976 t o j u s t .525 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes - a r e d u c t i o n of 73%. H e r r i n g c a t c h e s ( F i g u r e 9) t o t a l l e d .967 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes i n 1969 but by 1976 had been reduced t o .322 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes - a r e d u c t i o n of over 66%. Other s p e c i e s , i n c l u d i n g haddock and r e d f i s h , show s i m i l a r t r e n d s . High l a n d i n g s of some s t o c k s i n c e r t a i n y e a r s may be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o b i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s such as water t e m p e r a t u r e s and s a l i n i t y which a f f e c t y e a r - c l a s s s u r v i v a l and growth r a t e s . The c o n t i n u e d d e c rease i n l a n d i n g s of a p a r t i c u l a r s t o c k , however, can o n l y be a t t r i b u t e d , i n t h i s c a s e , t o o v e r - f i s h i n g . The s t a t i s t i c s suggest t h a t a number of s t o c k s have been o v e r -f i s h e d t o the p o i n t of s e r i o u s s t o c k d e p l e t i o n . Johnstone (1972) a s s e r t s t h a t t h i s has been the c a s e ; p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h cod, haddock and h e r r i n g . An o v e r a l l r e d u c t i o n i n f i s h s i z e , as r e p o r t e d by the A t l a n t i c Development Board (1969) over a decade ago, l e n d s suppport t o t h i s - as w e l l . The most c o n v i n c i n g e v i d e n c e of t h i s , however, i s the f a c t t h a t o v e r - e x p l o i t a t i o n has l e d t o the c l o s i n g of s p e c i f i c f i s h e r i e s on s e v e r a l major f i s h i n g grounds; the most r e c e n t example b e i n g the h a l t of cod f i s h i n g on the Grand Banks i n 1980. In t h i s l i g h t , i t becomes apparent t h a t the i n c r e a s e d l a n d i n g s of many s p e c i e s i s not due t o b i o l o g i c a l bonanzas as much as i t i s t o the a m b i t i o n s of f i s h e r m e n t o keep t o t a l c a t c h l e v e l s h i g h t h r o u g h the replacement of d e p l e t e d s t o c k s w i t h s t o c k s t h a t have not been f u l l y e x p l o i t e d . 43 C l e a r l y , ICNAF's power t o impose r e s t r i c t i o n s on i t s members was no guarantee t h a t s t o c k s would be managed a t maximum s u s t a i n a b l e y i e l d s . F u r t h e r e v i d e n c e of ICNAF's i n a b i l i t y t o manage the Northwest A t l a n t i c f i s h e r y e f f e c t i v e l y i s p r o v i d e d by examining the consequences of i t s quota system. U n t i l 1972, quotas were made not on a n a t i o n a l b a s i s but on the b a s i s of each s t o c k . Copes (1972) noted t h a t each f i s h i n g n a t i o n t r i e d t o o u t - f i s h i t s r i v a l s and, under t h i s broad quota system, t h e r e was a w i l d scramble a t the b e g i n n i n g of each year by each f i s h i n g n a t i o n t o t a k e as much of the o v e r a l l quotas as p o s s i b l e . P a r t l y as a r e s u l t of t h i s , the f l e e t became o v e r -c a p i t a l i z e d . The g r o s s tonnage of the f l e e t f i s h i n g the Northwest A t l a n t i c i n c r e a s e d from 507,970 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1959 t o 1,505,852 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1971 (ICNAF, 1972). D u r i n g t h i s same p e r i o d , however, c a t c h per u n i t of e f f o r t - as measured by the r a t i o of t o t a l l a n d i n g s t o g r o s s tonnage - f e l l from 4.2 t o 2.9; a d e c r e a s e of 31%. C o n s e q u e n t l y , ICNAF's performance i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c f i s h e r y not o n l y f a i l e d t o p r e v e n t the d e p l e t i o n of the r e s o u r c e but t o s a f e g u a r d the i n d u s t r y from becoming e c o n o m i c a l l y i n e f f i c i e n t as w e l l . T h i s t r e n d , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , worsened throughout the 1970's and Canada came t o view ICNAF's management e f f o r t s as c o m p l e t e l y inadequate (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). By the mid-1970's, the A t l a n t i c Canada f i s h e r y had c o l l a p s e d and t o t a l l a n d i n g s had f a l l e n by such an e x t e n t t h a t the F e d e r a l Government had t o i n j e c t massive s u b s i d i e s t o keep the e n t i r e i n d u s t r y a f l o a t ( A l e x a n d e r , 1977). W i t h both the 44 r e s o u r c e and the i n d u s t r y a p p a r e n t l y on the road t o o b l i v i o n , Canada r e a c t e d by u n i l a t e r a l l y e x t e n d i n g i t s f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n t o 200 n a u t i c a l m i l e s on January 1, 1977 (Government of Canada, 1978a). E f f e c t s of I n t e n s i f i e d O f f s h o r e F i s h i n g on Newfoundland The e f f e c t s of o v e r - f i s h i n g by the o f f s h o r e , v e s s e l s were not c o n f i n e d s o l e l y t o reduced c a t c h e s o f f s h o r e . The d e c i m a t i o n of the s t o c k s a l s o g r e a t l y reduced the s e a s o n a l m i g r a t i o n s of f i s h upon which the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y of Newfoundland depended. S i l v e r t (1977) p o i n t e d out t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y had been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a c h r o n i c s h o r t a g e of f i s h s i n c e the e a r l y 1960's as a r e s u l t of the impact of t r a w l e r f i s h i n g on f i s h s t o c k s i z e . In 1969, the A t l a n t i c Development Board s t a t e d t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y was showing the e f f e c t s of the i n c r e a s i n g o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y and was, i n e f f e c t , l o s i n g t o the t r a w l e r s i n a c o m p e t i t i o n f o r s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s . McCracken (1975, p. 2) noted t h a t not o n l y was i t "easy t o see t h a t the p o r t i o n of the s t o c k m i g r a t i n g i n s h o r e i s s e r i o u s l y d e p l e t e d " but t h a t the average age and s i z e of t h e f i s h had been reduced as w e l l . Anderson (1974, p. 27) i n d i c a t e d t h a t " o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s v i r t u a l l y i n t e r c e p t e d f i s h t h a t might have been taken by • the s e a s o n a l i n s h o r e s e c t o r " . Throughout most of the 1960's and the 1970's the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y was i n a v e r y anemic c o n d i t i o n . The A t l a n t i c Development Board (1969, p. 33) r e f e r r e d t o i t as an " i n s t r u m e n t of p o v e r t y " 45 and Copes (1972, p. 1) condemned i t as Newfoundland's " c h i e f economic l i a b i l i t y " . Both the A t l a n t i c Development Board (1969, p. 33) and F e d e r a l M i n i s t e r of F i s h e r i e s Jack D a v i s ( J o h n s t o n e , 1972, p. 84) s a i d t h a t much of the f a u l t f o r t h i s l a y i n the f a c t t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y was composed of "too many men w i t h too much gear" f i s h i n g a l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e . As l o n g as e x t e n s i v e t r a w l e r f i s h i n g i n the Northwest A t l a n t i c c o n t i n u e d t o decimate the s t o c k s , i t was apparent t h a t the performance of the Newfoundland i n s h o r e f i s h e r y was u n l i k e l y t o improve. Without e x t e n d i n g f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n t h e r e was l i t t l e Canada c o u l d do t o change the s i t u a t i o n e i t h e r ; e s p e c i a l l y i f the ICNAF ^ n a t i o n s r e f u s e d v o l u n t a r y quota r e d u c t i o n s . The problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the low r e s o u r c e s u p p l i e s a v a i l a b l e t o Newfoundland's i n s h o r e f i s h e r y t h e r e f o r e seemed i n c u r a b l e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i f low incomes and the poor economic showing of the i n s h o r e s e c t o r were t o be overcome, the o n l y o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e was t o reduce the number of f i s h e r m e n . I t was l a r g e l y from t h i s p o i n t of view t h a t Copes (1972.) advocated the need t o r a t i o n a l i z e the i n s h o r e s e c t o r which, e s s e n t i a l l y , meant l i q u i d a t i n g many of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n . The r e s e t t l e m e n t of s m a l l e r o u t p o r t s t o l a r g e r c e n t r e s was one way i n which t h i s was a c h i e v e d . The P r o v i n c i a l Government embarked on t h i s scheme p a r t l y t o c o n s o l i d a t e people and make the p r o v i s i o n of s e r v i c e s - s c h o o l s , r o a d s , e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , e t c . -more c o s t - e f f e c t i v e (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada. ' 1980). Copes (1971), however, added t h a t a fundamental a s p e c t of the programme was t o move peopl e from i n s h o r e f i s h i n g communities t o 4 6 towns geared towards o f f s h o r e p r o d u c t i o n which were c a p a b l e of competing w i t h f o r e i g n f l e e t s . Under the r e s e t t l e m e n t scheme, i n c i d e n t a l l y , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 300 communities and 28,000 p e o p l e were r e l o c a t e d . I n i t i a l l y , the m a j o r i t y of a community's r e s i d e n t s had t o v o t e i n f a v o u r of r e s e t t l e m e n t b e f o r e the a c t u a l r e l o c a t i o n took p l a c e . In 1975, however, the programme was h a l t e d by i n t e n s e p u b l i c p r o t e s t because i t was f e l t t h a t the Government was f o r c i n g p e o p l e t o move a g a i n s t t h e i r w i l l (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). C u r r e n t Socio-Economic C o n d i t i o n s D e s p i t e the r e s e t t l e m e n t programme and the poor f i s h e r y h a r v e s t s , the i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n and f i s h i n g communities c o n t i n u e d t o s u r v i v e . By p r e s e n t c o u n t , t h e r e a r e over 30,000 i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n i n the p r o v i n c e s c a t t e r e d throughout 700 o u t p o r t s . I n s h o r e f i s h i n g i s s t i l l s e a s o n a l but many f i s h e r m e n and o t h e r s dependent on f i s h e r i e s - r e l a t e d employment augment f i s h e r y e a r n i n g s w i t h o t h e r wage income or t h r o u g h t r a d i t o n a l s e l f - s u b s i s t e n c e o c c u p a t i o n s . In a d d i t o n , most Newfoundland communities now have the b a s i c p u b l i c s e r v i c e s t h a t r e s e t t l e m e n t was d e s i g n e d t o reduce the c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g . I t i s u n l i k e l y , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t r e s e t t l e m e n t w i l l be i m p o r t a n t as a means of d i m i n i s h i n g t h e s e expenses. The Newfoundland f i s h e r y , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , i s not the o n l y segment of the p r o v i n c i a l economy t h a t has e x p e r i e n c e d 47 d i f f i c u l t y . S i n c e c o n f e d e r a t i o n , the P r o v i n c i a l Government has e n t e r e d i n t o a v a r i e t y of development p r o j e c t s t h a t have had f a r from s a t i s f a c t o r y r e s u l t s . Newfoundland, f o r i n s t a n c e , has the h i g h e s t per c a p i t a p r o d u c t i o n of m i n e r a l s of any Canadian p r o v i n c e but the Government earns more i n t o b a c c o tax than i t does i n m i n i n g r o y a l t i e s (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). In the 1950's, the Newfoundland Government i n v e s t e d h e a v i l y i n f a c t o r i e s t o produce r u b b e r , c h o c o l a t e , l e a t h e r , g l o v e s and b a t t e r i e s b u t , w i t h i n a few y e a r s of t h e i r i n c e p t i o n , a l l had f o l d e d (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). Over an e i g h t y e a r p e r i o d , the Government i n v e s t e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y $400 m i l l i o n i n a k r a f t l i n e r b o a r d m i l l which was l a t e r s o l d t o A b i t i b i - P r i c e f o r $41 m i l l i o n (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). In a d d i t i o n , the ERCO phosphorous p l a n t i n Long Harbour, P l a c e n t i a Bay i s a n n u a l l y g i v e n a power s u b s i d y v a l u e d a t more than the company pays out i n wages (Canning and I n g l i s , 1977). F i n a l l y , the Newfoundland Government r e c e n t l y e s t i m a t e d t h a t , due t o a p o o r l y n e g o t i a t e d , l o n g term c o n t r a c t w i t h Hydro Quebec, i t has f o r s a k e n a p p r o x i m a t e l y $400 m i l l i o n a y e a r on the C h u r c h i l l F a l l s hydro development (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). The economic i n d i c a t o r s r e v e a l t h a t Newfoundland has p a i d d e a r l y f o r t h e s e p o l i c y b l u n d e r s . The per c a p i t a income and the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i n the l a b o u r f o r c e , f o r i n s t a n c e , a r e o n l y 68% and 83% r e s p e c t i v e l y of the Canadian average (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). In a d d i t i o n , o f f i c i a l unemployment r a t e s f o r the p r o v i n c e - c u r r e n t l y a t 16% - have t r a d i t i o n a l l y 48 been t w i c e 1 the n a t i o n a l average w h i l e s a l e s tax - a t 11% - i s the h i g h e s t i n Canada. Moreover, Newfoundland's per c a p i t a p u b l i c debt - $3,200 - i s the h i g h e s t of a l l the p r o v i n c e s . The c o s t of l i v i n g i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y above average as w e l l (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980). The economic c o n d i t i o n s of the P r o v i n c e , however, a r e not u n i f o r m l y d i s t r i b u t e d . In 1976, f o r i n s t a n c e , the Department of R e g i o n a l Economic E x p a n s i o n i d e n t i f i e d the e n t i r e A v a l o n P e n i n s u l a as the u r b a n - i n d u s t r i a l c o r e and i n d i c a t e d t h a t c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n t h i s a r e a are comparable t o o t h e r growth r e g i o n s i n Canada (Government of Canada, 1976). C e r t a i n o t h e r a r e a s - the a i r p o r t town of Gander, the two p u l p m i l l towns and the m i n i n g towns of Labrador - a l s o have p r o s p e r o u s economies. These r e g i o n s , c o l l e c t i v e l y , c o n t a i n a p p r o x i m a t e l y 45% of the P r o v i n c e ' s p o p u l a t i o n . The b u l k of Newfoundland's economic problems, c o n s e q u e n t l y , l i e s w i t h the r e m a i n i n g p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n t h a t r e s i d e s i n the o u t p o r t communities. Many of t h e s e r e g i o n s - the South C o a s t , B a i e d ' E s p o i r and t h e N o r t h e a s t Coast - o f t e n e x p e r i e n c e unemployment r a t e s i n e x c e s s of 40% and, i n extreme c a s e s , as much as 60% (Newfoundland F e d e r a t i o n of Labour, 1978). 1The P e o p l e ' s Commission on Unemployment has argued t h a t a more a c c u r a t e unemployment f i g u r e making a l l o w a n c e f o r the d i s c o u r a g e d workers t h a t have l e f t the l a b o u r f o r c e would approach 35%. See: Now That We've Burnt Our B o a t s : Newfoundland F e d e r a t i o n of Labour; S t . J ohn's, 1978. 49 In l i g h t of t h i s unbalanced economic s i t u a t i o n , the f i s h e r y i s of paramount impor t a n c e . Munro (1980) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t the f i s h e r y p r o v i d e s a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of the economic base of t h e s e r e g i o n s and a c c o u n t s f o r 13% of t o t a l employment i n the P r o v i n c e as a w hole. 1 The i n t r o d u c t i o n of the 200 m i l e l i m i t , however, has i n t e n s i f i e d i t s i m p o r t a n c e . The Government of Newfoundland (1978a) f o r s e e s i t b e i n g the major growth component of the economy d u r i n g the 1980's. I t i s c o n f i d e n t t h a t the P r o v i n c e i s " i n a p o s i t i o n t o b e n e f i t e x t e n s i v e l y from the r a t i o n a l e x p l o i t a t i o n of renewable s t o c k s a v a i l a b l e t o the f i s h e r i e s s e c t o r " (Government of Newfoundland, 1980, p. 7 8 ) . I t i s w o r t h w h i l e a t t h i s p o i n t t o examine the b i o l o g i c a l and r e s o u r c e - r e l a t e d c r i t e r i a c o n c e r n i n g these "renewable s t o c k s a v a i l a b l e t o the f i s h e r i e s s e c t o r " and t o d e t e r m i n e how the i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s compare. T h i s shows t h a t not o n l y are t h e r e d i f f e r e n c e s between the two s e c t o r s b u t , e q u a l l y as i m p o r t a n t , t h a t t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e s p e c u l a t i o n i n h e r e n t i n the Government's assessment of what the. r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l a c t u a l l y i s . 1To p l a c e t h i s i n p e r s p e c t i v e , i t s h o u l d be noted t h a t the much-vaunted f o r e s t i n d u s t r y of B r i t i s h Columbia a c c o u n t s f o r o n l y 12% of t o t a l employment i n t h a t p r o v i n c e . 50 IV; EVALUATION OF RESOURCE-RELATED CRITERIA Overview The b a s i s f o r f i s h e r i e s e x p a n s i o n i n Newfoundland i s the p h a s i n g out of f i s h i n g by f o r e i g n n a t i o n s w i t h i n the 200 m i l e l i m i t and the r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of the s t o c k s t h r o u g h c o n s e r v a t i o n programmes. The e x t e n s i o n of f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n has p r o v i d e d Canada the o p p o r t u n i t y t o i n i t i a t e b o th t h e s e measures but h o l d s no guarantee t h a t the s t o c k s w i l l respond as p r o j e c t e d . There a r e i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n s f o r t h i s and e l a b o r a t i o n i s w a r r a n t e d . One of the most im p o r t a n t reasons i s t h a t f i s h s t o c k growth p r o j e c t i o n s , as has a l r e a d y been n o t e d , a r e a t b e s t o n l y crude measures of how the s t o c k s a r e e x p e c t e d t o behave over t i m e . The Government of Canada (1977a) has u n d e r s c o r e d t h i s by s t a t i n g t h a t many of i t s r e s o u r c e p r o j e c t i o n s are based on v e r y weak d a t a . I t has i n d i c a t e d t h a t f o r many s t o c k s - s q u i d , h e r r i n g , l o b s t e r , m a c k e r a l , s c a l l o p , c a p e l i n and o t h e r s - fundamental b i o l o g i c a l d a t a i s l a c k i n g . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the Government of Canada (1977a, p. 1) has emphasized t h a t i t s " p r e d i c t i o n s of s t o c k s t a t u s i n the 1980's are t o a l a r g e e x t e n t best guesses". T h i s problem i s compounded by t h e ' f a c t t h a t the e x t e n s i o n of f i s h e r i e s j u r i s d i c t i o n d i d not p r o v i d e Canada c o n t r o l over the e n t i r e e a s t e r n c o n t i n e n t a l s h e l f . Three i m p o r t a n t g r o u n d f i s h spawning a r e a s - the F l e m i s h Cap and the "nose" and the " t a i l " of the Grand Banks (see map, next page) - f a l l o u t s i d e i t s 51 F I G U R E 10: F I S H I N G A R E A S B E Y O N D T H E 200 M I L E LIMIT 52 j u r i s d i c t i o n . A l t h o u g h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l management committee has been e s t a b l i s h e d t o a d m i n i s t e r these a r e a s , a t l e a s t one c o u n t r y , i . e . S p a i n , has proceeded w i t h i n d i s c r i m i n a t e e x p l o i t a t i o n of them. T h i s not o n l y c o m p l i c a t e s the management problems Canada f a c e s w i t h t h e f i s h e r y but c a s t s a d d i t i o n a l u n c e r t a i n t y on i t s r e s o u r c e p r o j e c t i o n s . The n o r t h e r n cod s t o c k complex, f o r t u n a t e l y , l i e s e n t i r e l y i n s i d e the 200 m i l e l i m i t . I n t e r f e r e n c e from f o r e i g n n a t i o n s i s t h e r e f o r e not a problem but t h e r e i s c o n f l i c t over t h i s r e s o u r c e w i t h i n Canada. Newfoundland views n o r t h e r n cod s o l e l y as a p r o v i n c i a l r e s o u r c e because of i t s h i s t o r i c a l dependence upon i t as w e l l as t h e f a c t t h a t , under the terms of c o n f e d e r a t i o n i n 1949, i t r e t a i n e d f u l l c o n t r o l over a l l i t s n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . I t i s t h e r e f o r e c l a i m i n g complete a c c e s s t o the n o r t h e r n cod. Nova S c o t i a n f i s h i n g i n t e r e s t s , however, want t o e x p l o i t these grounds w i t h f r e e z e r t r a w l e r s t o p r o v i d e raw m a t e r i a l f o r t h e i r p l a n t s . Thus, a v i r t u a l "cod war" has broken out w i t h both P r o v i n c e s c l a i m i n g a " r i g h t " t o the r e s o u r c e and no r e s o l u t i o n i n s i g h t . T h i s i s s u e may or may not be s e t t l e d i n f a v o u r of Newfoundland. U n t i l i t i s r e s o l v e d , however, any assumption by Newfoundland t h a t i t w i l l o b t a i n f u l l a c c e s s t o the n o r t h e r n cod i s open t o c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y . T h i s , i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h the u n c e r t a i n t i e s of r e s o u r c e e s t i m a t i o n p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d , i m p l i e s t h a t t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e s p e c u l a t i o n i n h e r e n t i n the management framework r e g a r d i n g the Newfoundland f i s h e r y . These 53 p l a c e s e r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s on the p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s f o r the management of the f i s h e r y and, u n l e s s the Government of Newfoundland i s unconcerned about making d e c i s i o n s i t may l a t e r r e g r e t , demand t h a t the P r o v i n c e remain f l e x i b l e i n implementing development s t r a t e g i e s . Having noted t h a t t h i s problem e x i s t s , however, does not p r e c l u d e a n a l y s i s of each s e c t o r r e g a r d i n g the two r e s o u r c e c r i t e r i a t h a t have been o u t l i n e d . A b i l i t y t o H a r v e s t Cod The r e l a t i v e a b i l i t y of each s e c t o r t o h a r v e s t the t o t a l a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of cod has been l i s t e d as the f i r s t c r i t e r i o n f o r e v a l u a t i o n . In p u r s u i n g t h i s a n a l y s i s , i t i s assumed t h a t , f o r the time b e i n g , the u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n h e r e n t i n the p r o j e c t i o n of the cod r e s o u r c e i s not a problem. In o t h e r words, the t o t a l a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of n o r t h e r n cod i s e s t a b l i s h e d a t 365,000 m e t r i c tonnes - the maximum p r o j e c t e d f o r the p l a n n i n g p e r i o d t o 1985. E v a l u a t i o n of t h i s c r i t e r i o n i s d i f f i c u l t n o n e t h e l e s s , because the m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s of the n o r t h e r n cod a r e p o o r l y u n d e r s t o o d . I t i s not a c c u r a t e l y known what p e r c e n t a g e of the st o c k biomass m i g r a t e s shoreward and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , the c a t c h c a p a c i t y of the i n s h o r e s e c t o r i s troublesome t o a s s e s s . Munro (1980) has noted t h a t i t w i l l t a k e s e v e r a l y e a r s f o r knowledge of the m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s t o improve. In the meantime, Munro (1980) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t the Newfoundland Government i s assuming the h i g h e s t h i s t o r i c a l c a t c h - 336,000 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1919 - t o be the maximum t h a t c o u l d be taken by the i n s h o r e 54 s e c t o r . W ith the 1985 a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of n o r t h e r n cod e s t i m a t e d a t 365,000 m e t r i c , t o n n e s , the i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t the i n s h o r e s e c t o r would f a l l j u s t s h o r t of l a n d i n g t h i s amount. Y e t , the 1919 c a t c h was h a r v e s t e d w i t h c o m p a r a t i v e l y p r i m i t i v e gear and was a l s o c u r e d by the f i s h e r m e n . In f a c t , i t was o n l y 14 y e a r s b e f o r e t h i s t h a t d i e s e l e n g i n e s became common i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y ( A t l a n t i c Development Board, 1969). T h i s f i g u r e , t h e r e f o r e , may not r e f l e c t the maximum t h a t c o u l d have been caught had modern t e c h n o l o g y been used and the fi s h e r m e n not been burdened w i t h c u r i n g the c a t c h . Thus, i t i s not u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e i n s h o r e s e c t o r i s c a p a b l e of l a n d i n g more than 336,000 m e t r i c tonnes of cod and may i n f a c t be a b l e t o take the e n t i r e a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of cod e s t i m t e d f o r 1985. In comparison, the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r i s not dependent on cod m i g r a t i o n s but can e x p l o i t the cod s t o c k s y e a r - r o u n d on the d i s t a n t , o f f s h o r e grounds. The p a s t performance of o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g by the ICNAF n a t i o n s ( F i g u r e 8) i n d i c a t e s t h a t an o f f s h o r e t r a w l e r f l e e t would have no d i f f i c u l t y whatsoever i n t a k i n g the e n t i r e a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of cod. Without more s o l i d e v i d e n c e t o prove t h a t the i n s h o r e s e c t o r can t a k e s u b s t a n t i a l l y more than the 336,000 m e t r i c tonnes l a n d e d i n 1919, the i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t a Newfoundland o f f s h o r e f l e e t c a p a b l e of o u t - f i s h i n g the i n s h o r e s e c t o r c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d . T h i s would suggest t h a t i t i s more a b l e t o u t i l i z e t he cod r e s o u r c e than the i n s h o r e s e c t o r . T h i s , however, i s a n o n - i s s u e i n the sense t h a t the c o n c e r n 55 i s not whether one s e c t o r s h o u l d be a l l o c a t e d the e n t i r e cod r e s o u r c e . The i s s u e i s whether the h a r v e s t i n g c a p a b i l i t y of e i t h e r s e c t o r i s i n s u f f i c i e n t f o r i t t o be g i v e n p r i o r i t y f o r the f u t u r e a l l o c a t i o n of cod. S i n c e the e v i d e n c e i n d i c a t e s t h a t both s e c t o r s a r e c a p a b l e of l a n d i n g almost a l l of the a n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e , the c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t , i n terms of c a t c h i n g c a p a b i l i t y , p r i o r i t y f o r l a n d i n g cod c o u l d j u s t i f i a b l y be p l a c e d w i t h e i t h e r s e c t o r . A b i l i t y t o Ensure C o n t i n u e d , Long Term H a r v e s t i n g E n s u r i n g t h a t the f i s h e r y does not become d e p l e t e d from o v e r - h a r v e s t i n g has been i d e n t i f i e d as a second e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n . The i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s d i f f e r c o n s i d e r a b l y i n t h i s r e s p e c t . E s s e n t i a l l y , i n s h o r e f i s h i n g o n l y h a r v e s t s the f i s h e r y r e s o u r c e t h a t m i g r a t e s shoreward. I t does not f i s h the e n t i r e s t o c k biomass and, i n a d d i t i o n , i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by l e n g t h y p e r i o d s d u r i n g which no f i s h i n g t a k e s p l a c e . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t u t i l i z e s p a s s i v e t e c h n o l o g y t h a t t a k e s o n l y the f i s h t h a t happens upon t h i s type of gear. Thus, i t i s not a r a p a c i o u s f i s h e r y and i s u n l i k e l y t o d e p l e t e the r e s o u r c e . In c o m p a r i s o n , o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g e x p l o i t s the e n t i r e biomass - not j u s t the p o r t i o n t h a t i s m i g r a t o r y - on a y e a r - r o u n d b a s i s . I t a l s o employs an a c t i v e t e c h n o l o g y which e f f e c t u a l l y scoops v a s t q u a n t i t i e s of f i s h out of the w a t e r . I t p r o v i d e s l i t t l e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r s t o c k r e g e n e r a t i o n and employs a more r a p a c i o u s 56 t e c h n o l o g y than i n s h o r e f i s h i n g . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i t has a much g r e a t e r p h y s i c a l p o t e n t i a l f o r s t o c k d e p l e t i o n and i s l e s s a t t r a c t i v e f o r the l o n g term management of the r e s o u r c e as d e f i n e d . S y n o p s i s T h i s s e c t i o n has i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t , on the b a s i s of the above c r i t e r i a , t h e r e a re d i f f e r e n c e s between the i n s h o r e and the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s of the Newfoundland f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . Both s e c t o r s a r e c a p a b l e of h a r v e s t i n g cod a t l e v e l s s u f f i c i e n t t o j u s t i f y p r i o r i t y i n the a l l o c a t i o n of f u t u r e s u p p l y i n c r e a s e s but the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r has a g r e a t e r p h y s i c a l c a p a b i l i t y f o r o v e r - f i s h i n g the r e s o u r c e . An e x a m i n a t i o n of the economic c r i t e r i a r e v e a l s t h a t the two s e c t o r s r a t e d i f f e r e n t l y r e s p e c t i n g t h e s e as w e l l . 57 V: EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC CRITERIA Overview Economic a n a l y s e s of the i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s of the Newfoundland f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y a re d i f f i c u l t t o undertake because of l i m i t a t i o n s , i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s and a m b i g u i t i e s w i t h the a v a i l a b l e d a t a . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y the case w i t h the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y . The s e a s o n a l n a t u r e of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y makes i t e x t r e m e l y troublesome t o a s s e s s a c c u r a t e l y the amount of e f f o r t - measured i n man-years - r e q u i r e d i n t h i s s e c t o r t o l a n d a g i v e n volume of f i s h . T h i s problem i s i n t e n s i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i s more s e a s o n a l i n some p a r t s of the p r o v i n c e than i t i s i n o t h e r s because of the v a g a r i e s of weather, i c e c o n d i t i o n s and f i s h s t o c k f l o w s . F u r t h e r m o r e , because of d i f f e r e n c e s i n v e s s e l s i z e s , t h e r e a re i n t r a -r e g i o n a l as w e l l as i n t e r - r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the l e n g t h of the i n s h o r e f i s h i n g season. The l a r g e s t i n s h o r e v e s s e l s - the decked, 65 f o o t l o n g l i n e r s - can f i s h i n weather c o n d i t i o n s , f o r i n s t a n c e , u n s u i t e d t o the s m a l l e s t v e s s e l s . Y e t , the l o n g l i n e r s on the n o r t h e a s t c o a s t of the p r o v i n c e a re ice-bound f o r s i g n i f i c a n t p e r i o d s when s i m i l a r and even s m a l l e r v e s s e l s i n the s o u t h e r n r e g i o n s a r e f i s h i n g . On top of t h i s , the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y - i n c o n t r a s t t o the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y - e x p l o i t s o t h e r s t o c k s b e s i d e s g r o u n d f i s h . As has been n o t e d , t h e s e i n c l u d e : p e l a g i c h e r r i n g and m a c k e r a l ; anadromous salmon; c r u s t a c e a n s 58 i n c l u d i n g l o b s t e r , shrimp, s c a l l o p and c r a b ; and sea mammals, i . e . s e a l s . These are a l l s e a s o n a l f i s h e r i e s w hich occur at d i f f e r e n t t i m e s of the year and f l u c t u a t e i n l e n g t h due t o weather, market c o n d i t i o n s and r e s o u r c e s u p p l i e s . Inshore f i s h e r m e n pursue these f i s h e r i e s i n a v a r i e t y of c o m b i n a t i o n s and the r e s u l t i s t h a t , u n l e s s a complete i n v e n t o r y i s t a k e n , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o determine the dynamics of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y . As an i l l u s t r a t i o n , of the 13,700 men engaged i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i n 1973, 3,000 f i s h e d f o r l e s s than t h r e e weeks, 350 f i s h e d f o r over 42 weeks and the r e s t f i s h e d between 3 t o 42 weeks w i t h the m a j o r i t y f i s h i n g between 10 t o 28 weeks (Munro, 1980). Apart from p r o v i d i n g a rough breakdown, t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n t e l l s v e r y l i t t l e about t o t a l employment i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y and would have t o be much more d e t a i l e d b e f o r e b e i n g of any use i n an economic a n a l y s i s of i n s h o r e h a r v e s t i n g e f f i c i e n c y . In a d d i t i o n t o the wide f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the l e n g t h of employment g e n e r a t e d i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y , t h e r e a r e a l s o l a r g e v a r i a t i o n s from year t o year r e g a r d i n g the a c t u a l number of i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n . Copes (1972) i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s i s a f u n c t i o n of the l a c k of a l t e r n a t i v e job o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n Newfoundland, i . e . the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y s w e l l e d when job s elsewhere became s c a r c e . More r e a l i s t i c a l l y , Munro (1980) has s uggested t h a t i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n a r e income m a x i m i z e r s and t h a t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i s more dependent on the a b i l i t y of f i s h e r y e a r n i n g s t o compete w i t h a l t e r n a t e s o u r c e s of income. In e i t h e r e v ent, i t i s g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t h a t , i n the Newfoundland i n s h o r e f i s h e r y , t h e r e a r e a g r e a t many more 59 l i c e n s e d i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n than t h e r e a r e a c t u a l l y f i s h i n g on a y e a r l y b a s i s . The Government of Newfoundland (1978b), f o r i n s t a n c e , i n d i c a t e d t h a t a l t h o u g h 20,250 f i s h i n g l i c e n s e s were i s s u e d i n 1977, o n l y 17,500 men a c t u a l l y f i s h e d . In a d i f f e r e n t p u b l i c a t i o n p r i n t e d the same y e a r , however, the Government of Newfoundland (1978a) s t a t e d t h a t 20,862 f i s h e r m e n were employed i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i n 1977. T h i s i n c o n s i s t e n c y , i f n o t h i n g e l s e , a g g r a v a t e s the d i f f i c u l t i e s e n c o u n t e r e d i n a t t e m p t i n g t o undertake economic a n a l y s e s of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y In c o m p a r i s o n , the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y i s much e a s i e r t o i n d e n t i f y and d e s c r i b e . I t i s e x p l o i t e d by o n l y 80 deepsea t r a w l e r s which f i s h on a y e a r - r o u n d b a s i s and r e q u i r e a t o t a l crew on the o r d e r of 1,100 - 1,200 men (Munro, 1980). I t i s , t h e r e f o r e , q u i t e easy t o determine both the ex a c t amount of e f f o r t r e q u i r e d i n and the net revenues produced by t h i s s m a l l number of v e s s e l s . The o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y , however, does p r e s e n t problems t o economic a n a l y s e s comparing the i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s . T h i s r e l a t e s t o the e f f e c t of o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g on the i n s h o r e cod m i g r a t i o n s and has been g i v e n ample coverage e a r l i e r as a c e n t r a l i s s u e . I t i s of p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e because i n the pr e s e n c e of o f f s h o r e h a r v e s t i n g of the m i g r a t o r y s t o c k s , any economic a n a l y s i s of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y w i l l not a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t t he maximum - i n terms of b o t h l a n d i n g s and revenues -t h a t t h i s s e c t o r i s c a p a b l e of p r o d u c i n g . H i s t o r i c a l d ata on the f i s h e r y p r i o r t o o f f s h o r e development o f f e r no s o l u t i o n t o t h i s 60 problem e i t h e r because, as has been i l l u s t r a t e d , r e l a t i v e l y p r i m i t i v e t e c h n o l o g y was used then and the f i s h e r m e n a l s o had t o c u r e the c a t c h . O b v i o u s l y , any attempt a t u n d e r t a k i n g economic a n a l y s e s of the i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e h a r v e s t i n g s e c t o r s of the Newfoundland f i s h e r y w i l l be f r a u g h t w i t h d i f f i c u l t y , c o n f u s i o n and i n c o n s i s t e n c y . In e v a l u a t i n g the economic c r i t e r i a t h a t have been o u t l i n e d , t h e r e f o r e , t h i s c o n s t r a i n t must be borne i n mind. M a x i m i z a t i o n of Economic Rent The c o s t - e f f e c t i v e n e s s of each h a r v e s t i n g s e c t o r , i . e . i t s a b i l i t y t o maximize r e n t , has been i d e n t i f i e d as a t h i r d e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n . There i s , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , a n o t a b l e l a c k of l i t e r a t u r e on t h i s s u b j e c t and o n l y two i n d e p t h a n a l y s e s have appeared i n r e c e n t y e a r s . Both equated t h a t s e c t o r which g e n e r a t e d the h i g h e s t p r o f i t margins as t h a t which maximized economic r e n t . The f i r s t s t u d y , by the Government of Newfoundland (1978a), was e x t r e m e l y narrow i n scope and compared economic d a t a of o n l y one o f f s h o r e t r a w l e r w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e d a t a f o r the 700 decked i n s h o r e l o n g l i n e r s . The v a s t m a j o r i t y of b oth the i n s h o r e v e s s e l s as w e l l as the o f f s h o r e t r a w l e r s were not i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the s t u d y . T h i s l i m i t a t i o n i s i n t e n s i f i e d by the f a c t t h a t the o f f s h o r e v e s s e l r e f e r r e d t o i n the study was a 171 f o o t t r a w l e r w h ich, a c c o r d i n g t o Schrank e_t a_l (1980), does not e x i s t 61 as a component of the Newfoundland o f f s h o r e f l e e t . Most Newfoundland t r a w l e r s a r e s m a l l e r but s i n c e a t l e a s t one i s l a r g e r (Schrank e_t a l , 1980), i t i s not u n l i k e l y t h a t t h i s v e s s e l c o u l d become p a r t of the Newfoundland o f f s h o r e f l e e t . The r e s u l t s of the s t u d y a r e worthy of c o n s i d e r a t i o n but f i r s t a d e s c r i p t i o n of methods used i s w a r r a n t e d . T h i s i s s u b j e c t t o c r i t i c i s m because i t i n c o r p o r a t e d an u n r e a l i s t i c o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r which i s expanded upon l a t e r i n t h i s s e c t i o n . E s s e n t i a l l y , the Government study used e x t e n s i v e c o s t and revenue d a t a p r o v i d e d by ICNAF and the P r o v i n c i a l Department of F i s h e r i e s f o r 1977 t o d e t e r m i n e the " n o r m a l i z e d s o c i a l economic s u r p l u s " of each v e s s e l t y p e . T h i s i s the r a t i o of t o t a l revenue minus t o t a l c o s t s t o t o t a l revenue. T o t a l c o s t s i n c l u d e d a l l o p e r a t i n g and maintenance c o s t s as w e l l as c a p i t a l c o s t s a m o r t i z e d over the l i f e e x p e ctancy of the v e s s e l . Labour was v a l u e d a t an a r b i t r a r y o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of $12,000 per i n p u t , i . e . the average y e a r l y i n d u s t r i a l - c o m p o s i t e e a r n i n g s i n Newfoundland. T o t a l revenues were the average l a n d e d v a l u e of the c a t c h of these v e s s e l s . The n o r m a l i z e d s o c i a l economic s u r p l u s cannot not m a t h e m a t i c a l l y exceed the v a l u e of 1 1 and, 1Assuming t h a t t o t a l c o s t s e q u a l z e r o , t h e n : t o t a l revenues - t o t a l c o s t s t o t a l revenues = 1 62 t h e r e f o r e , the most c o s t - e f f e c t i v e v e s s e l i s t h a t h a v i n g the h i g h e s t s u r p l u s . The r e s u l t s of the study i n d i c a t e t h a t f o r b o t h v e s s e l s the n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s was- n e g a t i v e , i . e . t o t a l c o s t s were g r e a t e r than t o t a l revenues. A l t h o u g h the i n s h o r e v e s s e l s s c o r e d a h i g h e r s u r p l u s t h a t the o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s (-.47 compared t o .65), i t i s apparent t h a t both c l a s s e s of v e s s e l s a re h i g h l y i n e f f i c i e n t . The i n c i d e n c e of these n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s w a r r a n t s e x p l a n a t i o n which i s p r o v i d e d a f t e r the second study i s p r e s e n t e d . T h i s s t u d y , p r e p a r e d i n 1980 by Schrank e_t al f o r the Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, pursued the i s s u e of r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n i n much g r e a t e r d e t a i l . The a u t h o r s began by c a l c u l a t i n g the r e l a t i v e p r o d u c t i v i t y , i . e . the average d i f f e r e n c e s i n f i s h c a t c h i n g power, f o r t h i r t y - t h r e e v e s s e l and gear c o m b i n a t i o n s which r e p r e s e n t the e n t i r e spectrum of g r o u n d f i s h h a r v e s t i n g t e c h n i q u e s used i n both the i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s . T h i s was accompished through a m u l t i - v a r i a t e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s of data from 4,000 f i s h i n g t r i p s from 1973 to 1978 p r o v i d e d by ICNAF and the F e d e r a l Department of F i s h e r i e s and Oceans. These d a t a a l s o e n a b l e d the a u t h o r s t o e s t i m a t e the average c a t c h per day f i s h i n g over the sample p e r i o d f o r each v e s s e l - g e a r c o m b i n a t i o n . They th e n d e t e r m i n e d the n o r m a l i z e d s o c i a l economic s u r p l u s of a l l v e s s e l t y p e s f o r 1978 and undertook two o t h e r a n a l y s e s based upon the r e l a t i v e p r o d u c t i v i t i e s and e s t i m a t e d c a t c h per day. These i n v o l v e d 63 s i m u l a t i o n s i n which h y p o t h e t i c a l c a t c h by gear and v e s s e l type were assumed i n o r d e r t o o b s e r v e how t h e s e changes a f f e c t e d c o s t - e f f e e t i v e n e s s . T h i s s t u d y , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , i s f l a w e d ; not the l e a s t problem the obscure d i s c u s s i o n of format and methodology used. Other more s e r i o u s problems i n c l u d e the f a c t t h a t the r e l a t i v e p r o d u c t i v i t i e s f o r each v e s s e l - g e a r c o m b i n a t i o n were based upon dat a f o r y e a r s t h a t were p a r t i c u l a r l y poor f o r the f i s h e r y . The i n s h o r e f i s h e r y , however, s u f f e r e d more d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d than d i d the o f f s h o r e because of i t s dependence on f i s h t h a t escape o f f s h o r e e x p l o i t a t i o n . I t i s t h e r e f o r e l i k e l y t h a t the r e l a t i v e p r o d u c t i v i t y d a t a f o r the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i s b i a s e d downward. A second f l a w l i e s w i t h the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r t h a t was used. The a u t h o r s e v a l u a t e d l a b o u r a t the average weekly e a r n i n g s of the 1978 i n d u s t r i a l c omposite of the Newfoundland economy ($241). T h i s f i g u r e was a d j u s t e d downward, however, because the a u t h o r s assumed t h a t , s i n c e the unemployment r a t e i n Newfoundland i s 16.4%, the average Newfoundland f i s h e r m a n s h o u l d e x p e c t t o be unemployed t h a t much t i m e . As a r e s u l t , the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r i n the Newfoundland f i s h e r y was e s t a b l i s h e d a t $10,781. G i v e n the economic s i t u a t i o n i n Newfoundland, however, t h i s f i g u r e seems u n r e a l i s t i c . C o n s i d e r t h a t the a c t u a l average income of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y was a p p r o x i m a t e l y $2,000 i n 1977 (Government of Newfoundland, 1978a). I n s h o r e f i s h i n g does a l l o w 64 f o r o t h e r j o b a c t i v i t i e s but w i t h the unemployment r a t e of many o u t p o r t s r a n g i n g from 30% t o 60%, i t i s e x t r e m e l y u n l i k e l y t h a t o t h e r employment i s a v a i l a b l e . The a b i l i t y t o produce income i n k i n d c o n t r i b u t e s t o o u t p o r t e a r n i n g s but i t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t i t makes a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n . Dyke (1968) has suggested t h a t , on av e r a g e , one t h i r d of a f i s h e r m a n ' s e a r n i n g s come from income i n k i n d but t h i s would i n c r e a s e 1977 incomes t o j u s t $3,000. The o n l y o t h e r source of income a v a i l a b l e t o f i s h e r m e n i n the o f f - s e a s o n i s unemployment i n s u r a n c e but i t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t t h i s makes up f o r the i m p l i e d gap i n the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t f i g u r e . The problem w i t h u s i n g an i n a c c u r a t e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r i s t h a t i t was a p p l i e d t o e v e r y f i s h e r m e n and was c o n s i d e r e d , as has a l r e a d y been n o t e d , as p a r t of the h a r v e s t i n g c o s t of each s e c t o r . I f the r e a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t , f o r example, were z e r o , i t would mean t h a t an a r t i f i c i a l burden .of $10,781 per f i s h e r m e n was b e i n g added t o the c a l c u l a t i o n s . At the time of the s t u d y , however, t h e r e were over seventeen t i m e s as many i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n as t h e r e were o f f s h o r e and t h i s means t h a t , i n computing the n o r m a l i z e d s o c i a l economic s u r p l u s e s , the i n s h o r e s e c t o r was burdened much more than the o f f s h o r e by any e r r o r i n the e s t i m a t e . These two f l a w s b i a s the study by Schrank e_t a l (1980) a g a i n s t the i n s h o r e s e c t o r and i t i s o b v i o u s t h a t i t s f i n d i n g s cannot be a c c e p t e d as i n d i s p u t a b l e . Reproduced i n Ta b l e I (next p a g e ) , they n e v e r t h e l e s s c o n f i r m the f i n d i n g s of the government TABLE I N o r m a l i z e d S o c i a l Economic S u r p l u s e s of I n s h o r e and O f f s h o r e F i s h i n g V e s s e l s V e s s e l Type N o r m a l i z e d S o c i a l Economic S u r p l u s Tonnage C l a s s I ( I n s h o r e ) -1.54 - open v e s s e l s of l e s s than 39 f e e t and 10 g r o s s tonnes Tonnage C l a s s I I ( I n s h o r e ) -1.50 - decked v e s s e l s between 39 and 45 f e e t and under 25 g r o s s tonnes Tonnage C l a s s I I I ( I n s h o r e ) -3.28 - decked v e s s e l s between 46 t o 55 f e e t and 25 t o 49.9 g r o s s tonnes Tonnage C l a s s IV ( I n s h o r e ) -1.34 - decked v e s s e l s between 56 t o 65 f e e t and 50 t o 149.9 g r o s s tonnes Tonnage C l a s s V ( O f f s h o r e ) -1.40 - t r a w l e r s under 145 f e e t and between 150 t o 499.9 g r o s s tonnes Tonnage C l a s s VI ( O f f s h o r e ) -1.50 - t r a w l e r s over 145 f e e t and over 500 g r o s s tonnes 66 study by i n d i c a t i n g t h a t i n e v e r y i n s t a n c e the s u r p l u s i s n e g a t i v e . More i m p o r t a n t l y , however, they a l s o r e v e a l t h a t i n almost e v e r y case the s u r p l u s e s were w i t h i n a few p o i n t s of one a n o t h e r . The s o l e e x c e p t i o n i s the Tonnage C l a s s I I I v e s s e l s which- have a n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s over t w i c e t h a t of any o t h e r . Schrank et a l (1980, p. 30) have suggested t h a t the reason i s t h a t t h e s e v e s s e l s tend t o be " o v e r l o a d e d w i t h e l e c t r o n i c gear which r e q u i r e s e x t e n s i v e maintenance and d r i v e s o p e r a t i n g c o s t s up" but added t h a t c o s t s might be lowered i f t h i s " a u x i l i a r y gear were more c a r e f u l l y chosen and the s k i p p e r s g i v e n s p e c i a l t r a i n i n g " i n i t s use. On the b a s i s of t h e i r f i n d i n g s , Schrank e_t a l (1980, p. 29) were l e d t o c o n c l u d e t h a t " l a r g e v e s s e l s are not i n g e n e r a l more e c o n o m i c a l than s m a l l v e s s e l s " . They noted the reason was t h a t the c a p i t a l and o p e r a t i o n c o s t s " a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t r a w l e r s b a l a n c e the e x t r a l a b o u r i n p u t s r e q u i r e d i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y when a l l l a b o u r i s v a l u e d a t i t s e x p e c t e d i n d u s t r i a l wage" (emphasis mine). I f , as has been suggested h e r e , the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s were much too h i g h , then the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y s h o u l d r a t e f a r b e t t e r than the o f f s h o r e . The a u t h o r s have u n d e r s c o r e d t h i s by i l l u s t r a t i n g t h a t the s u r p l u s e s were s e n s i t i v e t o s u b s t a n t i a l changes i n the assumed o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r . They emphasized t h i s t h r o u g h an a n a l y s i s of the 1978 performance of the most l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e v e s s e l - g e a r c o m b i n a t i o n . Assuming a z e r o o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t gave a s u r p l u s of .71 but an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of $10,781 r e s u l t e d i n a n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s of -2.31. As a r e s u l t , Schrank et a_l (1980, p. 28) s t a t e d t h a t " w i t h s t r o n g 67 i m p l i c a t i o n s such as the s e r e s u l t i n g from a change i n the assumption of the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r , i t i s o b v i o u s l y o n l y w i t h g r e a t c a r e t h a t t h i s f i g u r e s h o u l d be m a n i p u l a t e d " . The l a b o u r c o s t s used i n the s t u d y , t h e r e f o r e , may be l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the magnitude of the n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s i n the i n s h o r e s e c t o r . Schrank e t a l (1980), however, have i n d i c a t e d t h a t l a b o u r c o s t s a r e not the cause of the n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s . They have noted t h a t the i n c i d e n c e of n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s i n s h o r e i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o government s u b s i d i e s . S u b s i d i e s are p r o v i d e d f o r gear r e p l a c e m e n t , v e s s e l c o n s t r u c t i o n and a host of o t h e r items but were not i n c l u d e d i n the s t u d y . Schrank et a_l (1980) e x p l a i n t h a t , s i n c e e n t r y i n the f i s h e r y i s not r e s t r i c t e d , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t r e n t s w i l l be c o m p l e t e l y d i s s i p a t e d . T h e r e f o r e , " i f the Government pays s u b s i d i e s t o a z e r o - r e n t f i s h e r y , then f i s h e r m e n w i l l e n t e r the i n d u s t r y u n t i l r e n t s ( i n c l u d i n g s u b s i d i e s ) a r e a g a i n d i s s i p a t e d " (Schrank et  a l , 1980, p. 68). C o n s e q u e n t l y , r e n t s net of s u b s i d i e s have t o be n e g a t i v e . S u b s i d i e s from both the government as w e l l as the p a r e n t company can a l s o be used t o e x p l a i n n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s i n o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s (Schrank e_t a l , 1980). Whereas l a b o u r c o s t s b i a s e d the performance of the i n s h o r e s e c t o r , however, Schrank et a l (1980) have i n d i c a t e d t h a t o p e r a t i n g and c a p i t a l c o s t s b i a s e d the performance of the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r . The most i m p o r t a n t o p e r a t i n g c o s t i s f u e l . The a u t h o r s have shown t h a t f u e l c o s t s become a g r e a t e r component of t o t a l o v e r a l l o p e r a t i n g 68 c o s t s as v e s s e l s i z e i n c r e a s e s . The v a l u e of f u e l consumed by the Tonnage C l a s s I I v e s s e l s was j u s t under 10% of the landed v a l u e of the average c a t c h of t h e s e v e s s e l s (Schrank e_t a l , 1980). For the Tonnage C l a s s VI o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s - r e p r e s e n t i n g 80% of the f l e e t - f u e l c o s t s were over 30% of the l a n d e d v a l u e of the average c a t c h . These f i g u r e s , i n c i d e n t a l l y , are c o r r o b o r a t e d by the Government of Newfoundland, (1978b). As a s i d e i s s u e , i t s h o u l d be noted t h a t f u e l used i n the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y i s exempt from p r o v i n c i a l t a x and, at $.55 per g a l l o n (Schrank et a l , 1980), c o s t s l e s s than o n e - t h i r d the p r i c e t h a t consumers i n Newfoundland pay a t the pump. F u e l used i n the f i s h e r y i s t h e r e f o r e s u b s i d i z e d but t h i s was not taken account of i n the s t u d y . The i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t i f the o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s had t o pay t a x on f u e l consumed, f u e l c o s t s would eq u a l or exceed the p r e s e n t d o c k s i d e v a l u e of t h e i r e n t i r e c a t c h . In c o m p a r i s o n , Tonnage C l a s s I I i n s h o r e v e s s e l s would have t o pay l e s s than 30% of the v a l u e of t h e i r average c a t c h f o r f u e l . These d a t a would have had extreme i n f l u e n c e s on the n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s e s had they been i n c l u d e d . Moreover, g i v e n the e x p e c t e d f u t u r e i n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of f u e l , i t i s apparent t h a t h i g h energy c o s t s a r e g o i n g t o t r o u b l e the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y much more than the i n s h o r e . T h i s i s not o n l y a f u n c t i o n of the f a c t t h a t the t r a w l e r s f i s h the more d i s t a n t grounds but a l s o because they r e l y on a c t i v e r a t h e r than p a s s i v e f i s h i n g g ear. F u e l c o s t s , a l t h o u g h i m p o r t a n t , are not the major cause of i n e f f i c i e n c y i n the o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s . The s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t 69 reason f o r n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s i n the s e v e s s e l s a r e the c a p i t a l c o s t s . Schrank et a l (1980) have p o i n t e d out t h a t as v e s s e l s i z e i n c r e a s e s , so t o does the per c e n t a g e of the average la n d e d v a l u e of the c a t c h r e q u i r e d t o a m o r t i z e the c a p i t a l c o s t s over v e s s e l l i f e - e x p e c t a n c y . In Tonnage C l a s s I v e s s e l s , l e s s than 20% of the v a l u e of the c a t c h i s needed t o a m o r t i z e a n n u a l debt charges (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980 and Schrank et a l , 1980). In Tonnage C l a s s VI v e s s e l s , however, annua l c a p i t a l debt charges exceed the e n t i r e v a l u e of the c a t c h . Not even the Tonnage C l a s s I I I v e s s e l s - p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d as b e i n g o v e r - c a p i t a l i z e d w i t h e x c e s s i v e a u x i l i a r y equipment and h a v i n g the lowest n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s - expend more than the t r a w l e r s on annual debt f i n a n c i n g ; 91% compared t o 101% (Schrank et a l , 1980). In summary, Schrank e t a_l (1980) suggest t h a t n e i t h e r the i n s h o r e nor the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y has a c l e a r economic advantage as f a r as h a r v e s t i n g i s concerned. In each c a s e , the n o r m a l i z e d s o c i a l economic s u r p l u s e s a r e n e g a t i v e . Labour c o s t s and s u b s i d i e s a re the main reasons f o r t h i s i n the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y w h i l e e x c e s s i v e f u e l and c a p i t a l c o s t s c o n t r i b u t e more h e a v i l y t o n e g a t i v e s u r p l u s e s i n the o f f s h o r e v e s s e l s . Y e t , t h e i r e v a l u a t i o n i s f l a w e d not o n l y because i t i n c o r p o r a t e d an i n f l a t e d o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of l a b o u r which lowered the n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s e s f o r the i n s h o r e v e s s e l s but because i t i g n o r e d the f u e l t a x s u b s i d y which r a i s e d the n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s e s of the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r . Had the s e two f a c t s been c o n s i d e r e d i n the a n a l y s e s , they would have a l t e r e d the d a t a f o r the two f i s h e r i e s i n f a v o u r of the o f f s h o r e . Thus, i n s t e a d of b e i n g unable t o 70 d i f f e r e n t i a t e between the economic performance of e i t h e r s e c t o r , Schrank et a_l (1980) s h o u l d have had an i n d i s p u t a b l e b a s i s f o r s t a t i n g t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y more n e a r l y maximizes economic r e n t . M a x i m i z a t i o n of Economic E f f i c i e n c y Many a u t h o r s have i n d i c a t e d t h a t r e n t m a x i m i z a t i o n may not be the most e c o n o m i c a l l y e f f i c i e n t approach t o managing a f i s h e r y ; e s p e c i a l l y i f the economy i s not at or near f u l l employment. (See: C h r i s t y and S c o t t , 1965; C r u t c h f i e l d , 1972; and M a c k e n z i e , 1979.) The i m m o b i l i t y of f i s h e r m e n , low o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s f o r f i s h i n g l a b o u r and the p o s s i b i l i t y of combining s e a s o n a l f i s h i n g w i t h o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s have been c i t e d t o s u pport t h a t economic e f f i c i e n c y may be s a t i s f i e d t h r o u g h the maintenance of over-employment i n the f i s h e r y . In Newfoundland t h i s c o u l d w e l l be the c a s e . C o n s i d e r , f o r i n s t a n c e , t h a t the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y i s j u s t one component of o u t p o r t l i f e s t y l e s . Many Newfoundlanders s t i l l combine f i s h i n g w i t h o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s i n c l u d i n g h u n t i n g , f o r e s t r y - r e l a t e d work and, t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t , a g r i c u l t u r e . A l t h o u g h the t o t a l monetary v a l u e of t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s may be s m a l l , they n e v e r t h e l e s s c o n s t i t u t e an i m p o r t a n t component of the o u t p o r t economy. In a d d i t i o n , l i v i n g i n an o u t p o r t compared t o urban a r e a s i s l e s s e x p e n s i v e . Not o n l y i s the l i f e s t y l e l e s s s o p h i s t i c a t e d but the tax burden i s much l i g h t e r as w e l l . P r o p e r t y t a x and o t h e r u r b a n / m u n i c i p a l t a x e s , f o r i n s t a n c e , 71 s i m p l y do not e x i s t i n the m a j o r i t y of o u t p o r t s . As a consequence of a l l these f a c t o r s , S k o l n i k and Wadel (1969) have suggested t h a t the average Newfoundland o u t p o r t f a m i l y r e q u i r e d j u s t 65% of the cash income of an urban ( S t . John's) household t o a t t a i n an a c c e p t a b l e m a t e r i a l s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g . F e r r i s and P l o u r d e (1980) have s u p p o r t e d t h i s by s t a t i n g t h a t non-market income from the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y a l o n e r e p r e s e n t s perhaps as much as 25% of t o t a l i n s h o r e f i s h i n g income. 1 C o n s e q u e n t l y , the f i f t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s which s e c t o r c o n t r i b u t e s most t o economic e f f i c i e n c y v i s a v i s the g e n e r a t i o n of employment as w e l l as c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h supplementary economic a c t i v i t i e s and r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s . The two s e c t o r s r e v e a l d i s t i n c t d i f f e r e n c e s r e g a r d i n g t h i s . The s e a s o n a l , l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e i n s h o r e f i s h e r y not o n l y g e n e r a t e s a l a r g e volume of employment but a l s o f i t s i n w e l l w i t h the range of supplementary economic a c t i v i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n Newfoundland. In comparison, the c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e , y e a r - r o u n d o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y not o n l y p r o v i d e s l e s s employment t o tak e a 1 T h i s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the f a c t t h a t i n s h o r e f i s h i n g f a m i l i e s consume s u b s t a n t i a l amounts of f i s h ; much of i t b e i n g the h i g h v a l u e v a r i e t i e s such as salmon and l o b s t e r . I n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n u s u a l l y f i s h on a d a i l y b a s i s and have the o p p o r t u n i t y t o b r i n g f i s h home e v e r y day. O f f s h o r e f i s h e r m e n u s u a l l y f i s h t e n day t r i p s and not o n l y cannot b r i n g f i s h home as o f t e n b u t , because they f i s h o n l y g r o u n d f i s h , have l e s s of a v a r i e t y t o choose from. 72 g i v e n c a t c h but a l s o p r o h i b i t s the u n d e r t a k i n g of supplementary a c t i v i t i e s . I t i s t h e r e f o r e l e s s e c o n o m i c a l l y e f f i c i e n t than the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y as d e f i n e d by t h i s c r i t e r i o n . P l a n t U t i l i z a t i o n A f i f t h e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n i s the impact t h a t each h a r v e s t i n g s e c t o r has on p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . The t o t a l Newfoundland p l a n t c a p a c i t y i s c u r r e n t l y u n d e r - u t i l i z e d because of a s h o r t a g e of raw m a t e r i a l and the p r o c e s s i n g s e c t o r i s a n x i o u s t o m i t i g a t e t h i s . There a r e d i s t i n c t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the performance of the i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s i n t h i s m a t t e r . The i n s h o r e f i s h e r y p r o v i d e s f o r s e a s o n a l p l a n t o p e r a t i o n and thus c o n t r i b u t e s t o h i g h e r overhead c o s t s per u n i t of o u t p u t . To i l l u s t r a t e the magnitude of t h i s , Munro (1980) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t a l l of the 177 n o n - i n t e g r a t e d p l a n t s a r e shut down from t h r e e t o f i v e months of the y e a r . In c o m p a r i s o n , o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g i s y e a r - r o u n d . The i n t e g r a t e d p l a n t s a l s o o p e r a t e y e a r -round and a r e not hampered by the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s e a s o n a l i t y . On t h i s b a s i s , i t may seem t h a t a f i s h e r y e m p h a s i z i n g o f f s h o r e h a r v e s t i n g would be a b l e t o s o l v e the problem of p l a n t u n d e r - u t i l i z a t i o n . T h i s , however, i s a f a l l a c y because the f i s h e r y r e s o u r c e i s i n s u f f i c i e n t t o a l l o w f o r the f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n of t o t a l p l a n t c a p a c i t y . The Government of Newfoundland (1977) has i n d i c a t e d t h a t p l a n t c a p a c i t y i s u t i l i z e d o n l y 35% on the b a s i s of an e i g h t - h o u r s h i f t per 73 w o r k i n g day. C o n s e q u e n t l y , even assuming t h a t the 250% i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l l a n d i n g s by 1985 i s r e a l i z e d , the u n d e r - u t i l i z a t i o n problem w i l l s t i l l e x i s t . Thus, o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g i n c r e a s e s p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n o n l y i n the sense t h a t i t e x p l o i t s the s t o c k s t h a t a r e i n a c c e s s i b l e to the i n s h o r e s e c t o r . As f a r as n o r t h e r n cod i s c o n c e r n e d , i t i n c r e a s e s the u t i l i z a t i o n of the i n t e g r a t e d p l a n t s by c a t c h i n g f i s h t h a t might have been taken i n s h o r e and p r o c e s s e d e l s e w h e r e . I t t h e r e f o r e i n c r e a s e s the u t i l i z a t i o n of the i n t e g r a t e d f i r m s o n l y by e f f e c t u a l l y l o w e r i n g i t i n the o t h e r p l a n t s . O b v i o u s l y , o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g - by p r o v i d i n g f o r f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n - promotes the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the t w e l v e i n t e g r a t e d f i r m s . I t i s d u b i o u s , however, t h a t m a x i m i z i n g the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of a s m a l l number of p r o c e s s o r s i s the most a t t r a c t i v e way t o manage the r e s o u r c e . C o n s i d e r , f o r i n s t a n c e , t h a t the t w e l v e i n t e g r a t e d p l a n t s account f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50% of t o t a l p r o c e s s e d o u t p u t . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , t w e n t y - f o u r such p l a n t s c o u l d p r o c e s s the e n t i r e Newfoundland c a t c h . Y e t , t h i s would not o n l y mean t h a t the r e m a i n i n g p l a n t s would be f o r c e d t o shut down but t h a t s e v e r a l thousand p a r t - t i m e j o b s would be r e p l a c e d by a few hundred f u l l - t i m e p o s i t i o n s . G i v e n Newfoundland's g e n e r a l economic c o n d i t i o n s , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t the d i s p l a c e d workers would be a b l e t o f i n d employment e l s e w h e r e . As w i t h h a r v e s t i n g , economic e f f i c i e n c y may be s a t i s f i e d t h r o u g h the maintenance of over-employment, i . e . a g r e a t e r number of j o b s i n the p r o c e s s i n g s e c t o r ; e s p e c i a l l y i f p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t incomes can be supplemented by o t h e r 74 a c t i v i t i e s . In o t h e r words, the economic - b e n e f i t s of s e a s o n a l p r o c e s s i n g of f i s h may outweigh those of y e a r - r o u n d p r o c e s s i n g . In t h i s e v e n t , the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y c l e a r l y has an advantage over the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r . I t c r e a t e s a g r e a t e r p h y s i c a l number of p r o c e s s i n g j o b s - even i f they a re o n l y p a r t - t i m e - and a l l o w s f o r the u n d e r t a k i n g of supplementary a c t i v i t i e s . In summary, as f a r as cod i s co n c e r n e d , o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g i n c r e a s e s the p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n of some f i r m s by l o w e r i n g i t e l s e w h e r e . Thus, i t has no advantage over the i n s h o r e s e c t o r as f a r as t o t a l p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n i s concerned. I n s h o r e f i s h i n g p r o v i d e s raw m a t e r i a l f o r the m a j o r i t y of p l a n t s but e n a b l e s them t o o p e r a t e on a s e a s o n a l b a s i s o n l y . Y e t , i t does c r e a t e more job s and may t h e r e f o r e c o n t r i b u t e more t o economic e f f i c i e n c y . Employment C o n s i d e r a t i o n s I t i s w o r t h w h i l e t o note as a s i d e i s s u e t h a t two fundamental employment i s s u e s warrant more c o n s i d e r a t i o n than they have n o r m a l l y been g i v e n i n the management of the Newfoundland f i s h e r y . These r e l a t e t o the p o s s i b i l i t y of h a v i n g e i t h e r an over-abundance or a s h o r t a g e of l a b o u r i n the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . The l i k e l i h o o d of a l t e r n a t i v e employment d e v e l o p i n g i n the p r o v i n c e t o the e x t e n t t h a t i t may cause l a b o u r s h o r t a g e s i n the f i s h e r y seems d o u b t f u l - e s p e c i a l l y i n l i g h t of the f a c t t h a t 75 t h e r e a r e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 70,000 unemployed c u r r e n t l y i n Newfoundland (Newfoundland F e d e r a t i o n of Labour, 1978). Y e t , a demand f o r workers h a v i n g s k i l l s s i m i l a r t o f i s h e r m e n c o u l d do e x a c t l y t h i s and o f f s h o r e o i l development o f f e r s t h a t p o s s i b i l i t y . The Government of Newfoundland (1980) has r e c e n t l y s t a t e d t h a t , a l t h o u g h no commercial o i l f i e l d has y e t been proven, the p r o v i n c e f a c e s the " p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t the development phase (of a major o i l f i e l d ) may commence p r i o r t o 1984". Between 1,000 1,500 j o b s would be d i r e c t l y c r e a t e d by one development and many of t h e s e would be e i t h e r on the r i g s or on the v e s s e l s s e r v i c i n g them (Government of Newfoundland, 1980). The h i g h incomes p a i d by the o i l companies would c e r t a i n l y exceed the " o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t " f i g u r e s p r e v i o u s l y c i t e d and c o u l d persuade men t o exchange f i s h i n g b o a t s f o r o i l r i g s and s e r v i c e v e s s e l s . The i n d i r e c t i n j e c t i o n s i n t o the economy through r o y a l t i e s , t a x e s , e t c . , would a l s o c r e a t e j o b s t h a t may cause men t o p u l l t h e i r b o a t s a s h o r e . The e x p e r i e n c e of o t h e r o i l boom economies - the S h e t l a n d I s l a n d s and S c o t l a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r - i s t h a t t h i s can e a s i l y happen. C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e r e may be reason t o g i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o the p o t e n t i a l impacts of a major o i l development on the f i s h e r y . The most v i s i b l e impacts of o f f s h o r e o i l development would be w i t h the o f f s h o r e f i s h e r y because of the s m a l l number of men i n v o l v e d . Whereas the d i s p l a c e m e n t of s e v e r a l hundred f i s h e r m e n from the i n s h o r e s e c t o r would go u n n o t i c e d , i t would l i t e r a l l y 76 c r i p p l e the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r . I t i s e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t d e l i b e r a t e c o n s i d e r a t i o n be g i v e n t o the p o t e n t i a l e f f e c t s t h a t o f f s h o r e o i l development may have on t h i s s e c t o r . O t h e r w i s e , f i s h e r y management p l a n s may go u n r e a l i z e d because of l a b o u r s h o r t a g e s . On the c o n t r a r y , c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d a l s o be g i v e n t o the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t o o much l a b o u r might e n t e r the f i s h e r y . The problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o v e r - e n t r y i n an open-access f i s h e r y have a l r e a d y been g i v e n ample coverage and need not be r e i t e r a t e d . T h i s i s l e s s l i k e l y t o occur w i t h the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r because e n t r y r e q u i r e s extreme c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t . The r a p i d r i s e i n the number of i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n from 13,700 i n 1973 (Munro, 1980) t o 30,000 i n 1980 (Government of Newfoundland, 1980), u n f o r t u n a t e l y , s u g gests t h a t t h i s c o u l d w e l l be a problem w i t h the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y . At the p r e s e n t t i m e , the government has l i m i t e d e n t r y i n the Newfoundland f i s h e r y by p l a c i n g a f r e e z e on . l i c e n s i n g . L i m i t i n g e n t r y i n t o the f i s h e r y , however, i s no guarantee t h a t r e n t s w i l l not be t o t a l l y d i s s i p a t e d . Attempts a t r e g u l a t i n g the B.C. salmon f i s h e r y , f o r example, have i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t l i m i t i n g e n t r y i s not an e f f e c t i v e s o l u t i o n of i t s e l f . P e a r se and W i l e n (1979, p. 764) n o t e d t h a t the l i m i t e d e n t r y "programme ( i n B.C.) has, n e v e r t h e l e s s , f a i l e d i n i t s purpose of p r e v e n t i n g f u r t h e r e x p a n s i o n of redundant c a p i t a l i n the f l e e t " . F r a s e r (1979, p. 760) added t h a t "the (B.C.) l i m i t a t i o n programme has f a i l e d t o reduce the c o s t of f i s h i n g i n any a b s o l u t e sense. The reducti'on 77 i n f l e e t s i z e has s i m p l e c a l l e d f o r t h s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e s i n the c a p i t a l i n t e n s i t y of the r e m a i n i n g v e s s e l s " . Meany (1979, p. 789), i n commenting on the r e s t r i c t e d e n t r y programme f o r the A u s t r a l i a n l o b s t e r f i s h e r y , a l s o s t a t e d t h a t " e x c e s s i v e r e i n v e s t m e n t i n boats and equipment" has l i m i t e d the su c c e s s of the programme. The reason f o r t h i s i s t h a t l i m i t i n g e n t r y i n a f i s h e r y does not s o l v e the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e of the r e s o u r c e . A l l i t does i s c r e a t e a common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e w i t h fewer p a r t i c i p a n t s . The e x i s t i n g f i s h e r m e n s t i l l t r y t o out compete each o t h e r by employing e x t r a gear and more-advanced t e c h n o l o g y . S i n c e each f i s h e r m e n i s competing w i t h e v e r y o t h e r , a l l tend t o do the same and the r e s u l t i s t h a t r e n t i s d i s s i p a t e d . The Economic C o u n c i l of Canada (1980) has suggested t h a t one- way t o s o l v e t h i s problem i s t o i n c o r p o r a t e a " s t i n t e d " q u ota system. T h i s i s a method under which each f i s h e r m a n i s a l l o w e d o n l y l i m i t e d l a n d i n g r i g h t s , i . e . "he i s p e r m i t t e d t o l a n d and s e l l no more than a s p e c i f i e d number of pounds of f i s h of a c e r t a i n s p e c i e s , caught i n a c e r t a i n zone of the ocean i n a c e r t a i n season of the y e a r " (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980, p. 123). S t i n t e d quotas have a l s o been ad v o c a t e d by Pearse (1979) as a p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n t o the problem of r e n t d i s s i p a t i o n i n f i s h e r i e s . The Government of Newfoundland may f i n d t h a t s t i n t e d q u otas c o u l d have a g r e a t d e a l of m e r i t i n the management of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y . Even i f e x c e s s i v e e n t r y i n t o 78 the i n s h o r e s e c t o r does not become a problem, i t s h o u l d i n v e s t i g a t e b o t h the b e n e f i t s and d e t r i m e n t s of a p p l y i n g t h i s t e c h n i q u e t o the management of the Newfoundland f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . S y n o p s i s The i n s h o r e and o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s d i f f e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y r e g a r d i n g the t h r e e economic c r i t e r i a . I n s h o r e f i s h i n g not o n l y more n e a r l y maximizes economic r e n t but i t a l s o c o n t r i b u t e s more to economic e f f i c i e n c y v i s a v i s the c r e a t i o n of employment and c o m p a t i b i l i t y w i t h supplementary a c t i v i t i e s . In a d d i t i o n , a l t h o u g h n e i t h e r s e c t o r d i s p l a y s any advantages as f a r as t o t a l p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n i s c o n c e r n e d , the i n s h o r e s e c t o r d i s p e r s e s p l a n t employment thr o u g h o u t the e n t i r e p r o v i n c e and may c o n t r i b u t e more to economic e f f i c i e n c y as d e f i n e d h e r e i n . 79 V I ; EVALUATION OF SOCIAL CRITERION C o n s i d e r a t i o n of s o c i a l c o n c e r n s i s the s i x t h and f i n a l e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i o n r e g a r d i n g the Newfoundland f i s h e r y . The l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t the l a c k of employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s the most p r e s s i n g s o c i a l i s s u e i n Newfoundland. The Economic C o u n c i l of Canada has h i g h l i g h t e d t h i s i n i t s study Newfoundland From Dependency t o S e l f - R e l i a n c e . I t has noted t h a t Newfoundland "remains a Canadian metaphor f o r i s o l a t i o n , p o v e r t y , and dependency" (Economic C o u n c i l of Canada, 1980, p. x i ) and has i n d i c a t e d t h a t the major symptom of t h i s i s the P r o v i n c e ' s s e v e r e unemployment problem. The most d e t a i l e d account of Newfoundland's unemployment problem, however, i s p r o v i d e d by the P e o p l e ' s Commission on Unemployment. Formed by the Newfoundland F e d e r a t i o n of Labour i n 1978, the P e o p l e ' s Commission was charged the s p e c i f i c t a s k of a n a l y z i n g the economic, s o c i a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s of unemployment on i n d i v i d u a l s , f a m i l i e s and communities throughout the P r o v i n c e . In s i x months, i t t r a v e l l e d over 4,000 m i l e s , h e a r d over 45 hours of f o r m a l b r i e f s and t e s t i m o n y and assembled more than 1,000 pages of m a t e r i a l (Newfoundland F e d e r a t i o n of Labour, 1978). Based upon t h e s e d a t a , t h e P e o p l e ' s Commission commented on the f i s h e r y as f o l l o w s : "The f i s h e r y o f f e r s the p o s s i b i l i t y of an i n d u s t r y where the economy can s e r v e s o c i e t y ; where Newfoundland r u r a l and f a m i l y l i f e can be m a i n t a i n e d ; where e x i s t i n g p a t t e r n s of s e t t l e m e n t and s o c i a l l i f e can be i n t e g r a t e d w i t h a r e w a r d i n g and secure base of employment f o r many. Wh i l e the f i s h e r y o f f e r s hopes f o r j o b s and r e w a r d i n g employment, the type of development which i s pursued w i t h i n t h i s i n d u s t r y i s p i v o t a l t o the k i n d of 80 f u t u r e we w i l l a l l s h a r e . W i l l we have a f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y which enhances the q u a l i t y , c h a r a c t e r and s t r u c t u r e of our r u r a l communities or w i l l t h i s i n d u s t r y be o r g a n i z e d around the p r i n c i p l e s of c e n t r a l i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n t h a t have pl a g u e d the p r o v i n c e f o r decades?" (Newfoundland F e d e r a t i o n of Labour, 1978, pp. 103 - 104). A c c o r d i n g t o the Commission, t h e r e f o r e , the major s o c i a l c o n c e r n r e g a r d i n g the f i s h e r y i s the p r o v i s i o n of employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o ensure the p r e s e r v a t i o n of e x i s t i n g s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s and the c o n t i n u a t i o n of r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s . T h i s attachment t o the o u t p o r t s i n p a r t i c u l a r i s v e r y s t r o n g l y i n s t i l l e d i n the Newfoundland p e o p l e . Much of the documented e v i d e n c e of t h i s i s p r o v i d e d i n community e t h n o l o g i e s p u b l i s h e d by the I n s t i t u t e of S o c i a l and Economic R e s e a r c h a t Memorial U n i v e r s i t y of Newfoundland. These s t u d i e s c o v e r communities throughout the I s l a n d and o f f e r u s e f u l i n s i g h t s i n t o community att a c h m e n t s as w e l l as r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s . (See, f o r i n s t a n c e : F a r i s , 1966; F i r e s t o n e , 1967 and Chiarmonte, 1970.) M i g r a t i o n d a t a r e c e n t l y p u b l i s h e d by the Economic C o u n c i l of Canada (1980) l e n d s s u pport t o t h i s as w e l l . I t noted t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of Newfoundlanders t h a t l e a v e the p r o v i n c e r e t u r n a t some l a t e r d a t e . In a d d i t i o n , i t s t a t e d t h a t s i n c e the e a r l y 1970's, i n - m i g r a t i o n has been growing a t a f a s t e r r a t e than o u t -m i g r a t i o n . M i g r a t i o n f l o w s , of c o u r s e , a r e d i f f i c u l t t o e v a l u a t e . Newfoundlanders, f o r example, may not be r e t u r n i n g because they want t o but because they cannot f i n d employment. In a c t u a l i t y , b o t h reasons - as w e l l as o t h e r s not mentioned - are p r o b a b l y v a l i d . The r e l e v a n t p o i n t here i s t h a t many do r e t u r n s i m p l y because they have s t r o n g p e r s o n a l a t t a c h m e n t s . 81 Perhaps the best e v i d e n c e of t h e s e community t i e s , however, i s the p o l i t i c a l o p p o s i t i o n t o the r e s e t t l e m e n t programme t h a t d e v e l o p e d d u r i n g i t s l a s t y e a r s . Matthews (1976) i n h i s study of t h r e e communities f a c i n g the t h r e a t of r e s e t t l e m e n t g i v e s an e x c e l l e n t example of t h i s . Matthews (1976, p. 3) has w r i t t e n " A l l t h r e e communites a r e s m a l l , w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s r a n g i n g from 200 t o 700 p e o p l e .... Even though they are exposed t o the p u l l s of urban l i v i n g , they appear t o have m a i n t a i n e d a v i a b l e r u r a l l i f e . More i m p o r t a n t l y they have r e s i s t e d a l l e f f o r t s t o encourage them t o r e s e t t l e " . He noted t h a t two of the communities e x p r e s s e d t h e i r i n d i g n a t i o n a t the Government's i n t e n t i o n t o r e s e t t l e them by s e n d i n g the f o l l o w i n g t e l e g r a m t o the m i n i s t e r r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the programme: " I t i s hard t o b e l i e v e t h a t our government c o u l d have so l i t t l e r e g a r d f o r human b e i n g s and r e a c h such a d e p l o r a b l e d e c i s i o n . T h i s d e c i s i o n by our government t o s t r i p us of our b i r t h r i g h t and our freedom of c h o i c e i s o n l y the same as the R u s s i a n s d i d i n C z e c h o s l o v a k i a i n 1968. S i n c e 98 per c e n t of the p e o p l e of our communities a r e opposed t o the c e n t r a l i z a t i o n programme we a r e proud t o announce t h a t we a r e here t o s t a y " (Matthews, 1976, p. 2 5 ) . The Newfoundland and L a b r a d o r R u r a l Development C o u n c i l (1975) i n d i c a t e d t h a t the r e s e t t l e m e n t t h r e a t s p a r k e d communities throughout the e n t i r e I s l a n d t o form " r e g i o n a l developmemt a s s o c i a t i o n s " t o i n i t i a t e a c t i o n t o c o n f r o n t t h e programme and i s f u r t h e r e v i d e n c e of the Newfoundland p e o p l e ' s o p p o s i t o n t o community c e n t r a l i z a t i o n . F i n a l l y , the Economic C o u n c i l of Canada (1980, p. 14) u n d e r s c o r e d th e e n t i r e i s s u e by n o t i n g t h a t the r e s e t t l e m e n t programme has l e f t a " b i t t e r n e s s t h a t f u t u r e p l a n n e r s w i l l o v e r l o o k a t t h e i r p e r i l " . 82 U s i n g the p r o v i s i o n of employment t o ensure the c o n t i n u i t y of e x i s t i n g s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s and r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s as the s o c i a l c r i t e r i o n f o r e v a l u a t i n g a major s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t i n the Newfoundland f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e a r e c l e a r and fundamental d i s t i n c t i o n s between the i n s h o r e and the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s . E s s e n t i a l l y , the c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e o f f s h o r e s e c t o r reduces the amount of l a b o u r r e q u i r e d t o l a n d a g i v e n volume of f i s h . Moreover, the j o b s i t p r o v i d e s a r e f u l l - t i m e and a r e t h e r e f o r e not c o m p a t i b l e w i t h the maintenance of the t r a d i t o n a l r u r a l l i f e s t y l e s . In c o m p a r i s o n , the i n s h o r e s e c t o r c r e a t e s a g r e a t d e a l of employment and f i t s i n w e l l w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l o u t p o r t l i f e . I f a d e c i s i o n i n the Newfoundland f i s h e r y were t o be based s o l e l y on s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , i t would have no o t h e r c h o i c e but t o p l a c e p r i o r i t y w i t h the i n s h o r e s e c t o r . 8 3 V I I : CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION In t h i s t h e s i s I have i d e n t i f i e d s i x c r i t e r i o n t o e v a l u a t e whether the Government of Newfoundland i s j u s t i f i e d i n d e c i d i n g t o p l a c e p r i o r i t y w i t h the i n s h o r e s e c t o r i n the f u t u r e development of the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . These c r i t e r i a i n c l u d e : - a b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t cod; - a b i l i t y t o ensure s u s t a i n e d h a r v e s t i n g ; - m a x i m i z a t i o n of economic r e n t ; - m a x i m i z a t i o n of economic e f f i c i e n c y ; - impacts on p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n ; and - s a t i s f a c t i o n of s o c i a l c o n c e r n s . I t was i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t b oth the i n s h o r e and the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r s have the a b i l i t y t o h a r v e s t the major p o r t i o n of the a n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e i n the a l l o w a b l e c a t c h of n o r t h e r n cod. T h e r e f o r e , no d i s t i n c t i o n between the two can be made i n t h i s r e s p e c t b u t , because the i n s h o r e s e c t o r employs p a s s i v e t e c h n o l o g y and h a r v e s t s o n l y the m i g r a t o r y p o r t i o n of the s t o c k s , i t runs a l i g h t e r r i s k f o r r e s o u r c e d e p l e t i o n . At the same t i m e , the i n s h o r e s e c t o r g e n e r a t e s h i g h e r economic r e n t s , i . e . assuming the n o r m a l i z e d s u r p l u s e s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r i n f l a t e d o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s and f u e l t a x exemptions. F u r t h e r m o r e , by c r e a t i n g more j o b s and f i t t i n g i n w e l l w i t h e x i s t i n g supplementary a c t i v i t i e s , t he i n s h o r e f i s h e r y c o n t r i b u t e s more t o economic e f f i c i e n c y i n terms of p r o v i d i n g f o r the economic w e l l b e i n g of the g r e a t e s t number of p e o p l e . The two s e c t o r s a l s o d i f f e r w i d e l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n . N e i t h e r s e c t o r 84 c o n t r i b u t e s more t o t o t a l p l a n t u t i l i z a t i o n as f a r as n o r t h e r n cod i s c o n c e r n e d but the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y tends t o d i s p e r s e p r o c e s s i n g a c t i v i t y throughout the p r o v i n c e w h i l e o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g c o n c e n t r a t e s i t i n a s m a l l number of p o r t s . The i n s h o r e f i s h e r y may have b e n e f i t s h e r e , t h e r e f o r e , by c r e a t i n g more p r o c e s s i n g j o b s and c o n t r i b u t i n g more t o the o v e r a l l economic w e l l b e i n g of more p e o p l e . F i n a l l y , the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y c l e a r l y o u t r a t e s the o f f s h o r e i n i t s a b i l i t y t o f u l f i l l the s o c i a l a s p i r a t i o n s of the Newfoundland p e o p l e . Not o n l y i s i t more s u p p o r t i v e of e x i s t i n g s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s but i t i s a l s o more c o m p a t i b l e w i t h o u t p o r t l i f e s t y l e s . In summation, the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y o u t p e r f o r m s or a t l e a s t matches the o f f s h o r e s e c t o r i n e v e r y e v a l u a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s the c o n c l u s i o n of t h i s t h e s i s t h a t the Government of Newfoundland ap p e a r s , on the s t r e n g t h of the e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d h e r e i n , t o have made the p r o p e r d e c i s i o n i n p l a c i n g p r i o r i t y w i t h the i n s h o r e s e c t o r i n the f u t u r e development of the f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y . I t i s . apparent t h a t such a move w i l l c a p t u r e the maximum s o c i a l and economic b e n e f i t s and, c o n s e q u e n t l y , w i l l ensure the b e s t u t i l i z a t i o n of the r e s o u r c e . B e f o r e c l o s i n g , however, one l a s t i s s u e must be a d d r e s s e d . Many have p o i n t e d t o the h i s t o r i c a l i n a b i l i t y of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y t o p r o v i d e o u t p o r t p e o p l e a n y t h i n g except meager s t a n d a r d s of l i v i n g as c o n v i n c i n g e v i d e n c e t h a t i t w i l l never amount t o more than an " i n s t r u m e n t of p o v e r t y " . Indeed, i t has o f t e n been suggested t h a t perhaps the most humane a c t i s t o 8 5 h a s t e n the demise of the i n s h o r e f i s h e r y , e l i m i n a t e the r e m a i n i n g o u t p o r t communities and move the peopl e en masse t o more p r o s p e r o u s r e g i o n s e lsewhere i n Canada. In response t o t h i s , i t has t o be conceded t h a t t h e i n s h o r e f i s h e r y a l o n e i s unable t o s o l v e a l l of Newfoundland's economic a i l m e n t s . In f a c t , the Government of Newfoundland (1978a) has r e c o g n i z e d t h i s and has i n d i c a t e d t h a t the i n s h o r e s e c t o r cannot be e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e a c c e p t a b l e s t a n d a r d s of l i v i n g f o r any more than the 30,000 i n s h o r e f i s h e r m e n a l r e a d y l i c e n s e d . Y e t , t h i s s h o u l d not be taken as a d m i s s i o n t h a t t h e s e f i s h e r m e n have t o be i m p o v e r i s h e d . One has o n l y t o l o o k at o t h e r c o u n t r i e s t o a p p r e c i a t e t h a t p r o s p e r o u s economies can be b u i l t upon a f i s h e r y . I c e l a n d and Norway i n p a r t i c u l a r a r e two examples where t h i s has been done. The h a r v e s t i n g and p r o c e s s i n g of f i s h i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h s h i p b u i l d i n g and f i s h e r i e s r e s e a r c h and development make s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o the economic w e l l b e i n g of the s e n a t i o n s . I n s t e a d of w r i t i n g t h e i r c o a s t a l communities o f f as economic l i a b i l i t i e s , they have t u r n e d them i n t o n a t i o n a l a s s e t s . There i s no reason why Newfoundland cannot a c h i e v e the same. 86 REFERENCES A d a s i a k , A.. " A l a s k a ' s E x p e r i e n c e w i t h L i m i t e d E n t r y " i n J o u r n a l of the F i s h e r i e s R e search Board of-Canada: volume 36, number 7 , ( J u l y ) , 1979, pages 770 - 782. A l e x a n d e r , D a v i d . The Decay of Trade: I n s t i t u t e of S o c i a l and Economic R e s e a r c h ; Memorial U n i v e r s i t y of Newfoundland, S t . John's, Newfoundland, 1977. Anderson, R a o u l . 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