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The influence of industrial structure on female labour force participation in Canadian urban areas Robinson, Pamela 1980

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THE INFLUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ON FEMALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN ' CANADIAN URBAN AREAS by PAMELA ROBIN SON B.A., The University of Lancaster, 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (School of Community and Regional Planning) We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the reguired standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA June 1980 @ Pamela Robinson In p resent ing t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Co lumbia , I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r re fe rence and s tudy . I f u r t h e r agree tha t permiss ion f o r e x t e n s i v e copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s understood t h a t copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l ga in s h a l l not be a l lowed wi thout my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department of Community and Regional P l a n n i n g The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook P lace Vancouver , Canada V6T 1W5 Date TMth June. 1980 ABSTRACT i i An u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s i m p o r t a n t t o p l a n n e r s b o t h f o r manpower p l a n n i n g and r e l a t e d p u r p o s e s and b e c a u s e o f t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c w e l l - b e i n g . A l t h o u g h t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s of women, p a r t i c u l a r l y m a r r i e d women, have r i s e n d r a m a t i c a l l y i n r e c e n t d e c a d e s , wide r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s r e m a i n ^ Most s t u d i e s o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n Canada have f o c u s s e d e i t h e r on i n d i v i d u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o r on t h e r e s p o n s e t o unemployment c o n d i t i o n s . T h i s s t u d y a r g u e s t h a t , b e c a u s e women's employment i s h i g h l y c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a few i n d u s t r i e s and o c c u p a t i o n s , t h e i n d u s t r i a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f l o c a l l a b o u r m a r k e t s i s l i k e l y t o be an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r , i n h i b i t i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n where few j o b s a r e a v a i l a b l e . An a t t e m p t i s made t o measure t h i s i n f l u e n c e by i n c l u d i n g i n a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s o f 1971 Census d a t a an i n d e x v a r i a b l e r e p r e s e n t i n g , f o r 101 C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s and Census A g g l o m e r a t i o n s , t h e e x t e n t t o wh i c h i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e f a v o u r s women's employment. T h i s v a r i a b l e i s e x p e c t e d t o show a s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s ; i t s i n c l u s i o n i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e model and t o r e d u c e t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e dummy v a r i a b l e s r e f l e c t i n g ' i n d e p e n d e n t ' r e g i o n a l f a c t o r s . The a n a l y s i s , however, p r o v i d e s o n l y l i m i t e d s u p p o r t f o r t h e s e h y p o t h e s e s . A c o n s i s t e n t p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n i s r e v e a l e d , b u t , f o r most age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s g r o u p s , t h i s i s n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . R e g i o n a l i n f l u e n c e s a p p e a r t o be r e f l e c t i n g i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e f a c t o r s only s l i g h t l y and, i n the case of Quebec, not a t a l l . F a c t o r s which may account f o r t h i s d i s a p p o i n t i n g r e s u l t are d i s c u s s e d , i n p a r t i c u l a r , shortcomings i n the p r o x i e s themselves and the prevalence of strong r e l a t i o n s h i p s among the independent v a r i a b l e s . The hypothesised r e l a t i o n s h i p appears t o be one which i s not r e a d i l y r e f l e c t e d i n a study of t h i s type; some sugge s t i o n s are t h e r e f o r e made f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . C o n s i d e r a t i o n i s n e v e r t h e l e s s given to a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y measures a p p l i c a b l e t o areas where i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e does appear t o i n h i b i t p a r t i c i p a t i o n , the c o n c l u s i o n being t h a t , unless accompanied by vigorous a p p l i c a t i o n of e q u a l o p p o r t u n i t y and "equal pay f o r work of equal v a l u e " measures, the encouragement of " f e m a l e - i n t e n s i v e " i n d u s t r i e s would p r o v i d e only a p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n . i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i i TABLE OF CONTENTS . i v LIST OF TABLES v i LIST OF FIGURES v i i CHAPTER 1: FEMALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN CANADA .... 1 1. Introduction 1 2..Recent Trends i n Female Labour Force Participation i n Canada . 2 3. The Theory of Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n 9 4. Empirical Studies of Labour Force Pa r t i c i p a t i o n i n Canada .... 22 5. Female Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n and I n d u s t r i a l Structure 34 6. Study Objectives 44 CHAPTER 2: METHODOLOGY AND DATA DESCRIPTION 46 1. _ Introduction .46 2..The Model 46 3. Data Source 48 4. Description of Variables 51 (i) Dependent Variables .51 (ii ) 'Personal 1 Factors: a. Education 51 b. Ethnic Composition 52 c. Children 52 ( i i i ) Labour Market Factors: a. .Female Wages 53 b. Male Income 53 c. . Unemployment 53 d. Schooling .54 (iv) Residence factors: a. . Region 54 b. .City Size 55 (v) I n d u s t r i a l Structure .55 V CHAPTER 3: RESULTS .57 1 . _ I n t r o d u c t i o n .57 2. The B a s i c M o d e l 57 3. S h o r t c o m i n g s o f t h e A n a l y s i s .67 4. Summary o f R e s u l t s and R e l a t i o n t o P r e v i o u s S t u d i e s , .74 CHAPTER 4: CONCLUSIONS 79 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n 79 2. P o l i c y S t r a t e g i e s Dt1 80 3. S u g g e s t i o n s F o r F u r t h e r Data C o l l e c t i o n and R e s e a r c h 93 BIBLIOGRAPHY 93 APPENDIX 1 : RESULTS OF SUPPLEMENTARY REGRESSIONS .....96 v i LIST OF TABLES Page TABLE I: Female Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n In Canada by Age Group, 1921 to 1977 3 TABLE I I : Female Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n Rates by Province , 1911 to 1976 8 TABLE I I I : Female Labour Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n Rates by Province and Marital Status, 1971 .10 TABLE IV: Major Industry Groups Showing Percentage of Workforce Female and Proportions of Female and Male Labour Force 36 TABLE V: Leading Female Occupations, Canada, 1971 .38 TABLE VI: D i s t r i b u t i o n of CMAs and Census Agglomerations 49 TABLE VII: Results of Step 1 Regression: Excluding INDMIX 58 TABLE VIII: Distribution of Variable INDMIX . ....65 TABLE IX: Results of Step 2 Regression: Including INDMIX 66 TABLE X: Dis t r i b u t i o n of Employment by Major Industry Group and Sex, 1971 and 1979 84 TABLE XI: Average Weekly Earnings by Industry, 1979 .85 TABLE XII Average Earnings of Persons Who Worked Mainly Full-time for the F u l l Year 1970, by Occupation and Sex 87 APPENDIX 1: RESULTS OF SUPPLEMENTARY REGRESSIONS .96 a. Weighted Regressions 96 b. Omitting Male Income .97 c. Omitting Regional Dummy Variables .98 d. .Omitting City Size Dummy Variables 99 e. Using Logarithm of INDMIX 100 f. Using Region/Industry Mix Interaction Terms 101 g. .Using Region/Industry Mix Interaction Terms Without Dummy Variables 102 LIST OF FIGURES v i i Page FIGURE 1: Female Participation P r o f i l e s by Age, Canada, 1951 to 1971 . . . 5 FIGURE 2: The Individual Labour Supply Function .12 FIGURE 3: The Effect of Wage and Income Changes on Individual Labour Supply 14 1 CHAPTER 1 Female L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n I n Canada S e c t i o n 1. I n t r o d u c t i o n . T h i s s t u d y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e d e t e r m i n a n t s o f f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , t h a t i s , w i t h t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a f e m a l e p o p u l a t i o n o f w o r k i n g age w h i c h i s e i t h e r employed o r a c t i v e l y s e e k i n g employment. More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e s t u d y s e e k s t o i d e n t i f y t h e e x t e n t t o which f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s w i t h i n u r b a n a r e a s a r e i n f l u e n c e d by t h e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h o s e a r e a s . Why s h o u l d t h e f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e be o f i n t e r e s t t o p l a n n e r s ? F i r s t l y , and most g e n e r a l l y , c h a n g e s i n t h e unemployment r a t e — o n e o f the major i n d i c a t o r s o f t h e e c o n o m i c • h e a l t h 1 o f a r e g i o n — a r e i n f l u e n c e d by changes i n t h e s i z e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e as w e l l as by c h a n g e s i n t h e a b s o l u t e number unemployed. To draw v a l i d c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m unemployment s t a t i s t i c s , and t o f o r m u l a t e a p p r o p r i a t e p o l i c i e s , an a w a r e n e s s o f t h e f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g t h e s i z e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e i s n e c e s s a r y . . S e c o n d l y , any a t t e m p t a t manpower p l a n n i n g — t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f u t u r e i m b a l a n c e s between l a b o u r s u p p l y and demand, i n a g g r e g a t e o r i n s p e c i f i c a r e a s or o c c u p a t i o n s , and t h e t a k i n g o f s t e p s t o c o r r e c t t h e s e i m b a l a n c e s — m u s t be b a s e d on an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e d e t e r m i n a n t s o f l a b o u r s u p p l y . On a more p r a c t i c a l l e v e l , l a r g e p r o j e c t s i n r e l a t i v e l y remote a r e a s may f a c e l a b o u r s h o r t a g e s , s h o r t a g e s which have t r a d i t i o n a l l y been met by i m m i g r a t i o n b u t f o r which i n t e r e s t i s i n c r e a s i n g l y t u r n i n g t o w a r d s the a t t r a c t i o n o f a p r e v i o u s l y l a r g e l y u n t a p p e d f e m a l e p o t e n t i a l l a b o u r f o r c e ( s e e , f o r example, V e i t , 1 9 7 6 ) . T h i r d l y , t h e l e v e l o f f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n c l e a r l y i n f l u e n c e s t h e demand f o r government s e r v i c e s . . T h e most o b v i o u s example i s t h a t o f c h i l d c a r e s e r v i c e s , b u t e d u c a t i o n a l and t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s , employment programmes, and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s , t o name bu t a few, w i l l be i n f l u e n c e d by, as w e l l as t h e m s e l v e s i n f l u e n c i n g , t h e l e v e l o f f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . . E q u a l l y , i f n o t more, i m p o r t a n t a r e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n f o r t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l o f e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l w e l l b e i n g i n a community. I t i s i n t h i s r e s p e c t t h a t t h e i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e has p a r t i c u l a r r e l e v a n c e , f o r r e a s o n s which a r e d i s c u s s e d i n s e c t i o n 5 o f t h i s c h a p t e r . To p l a c e t h e s e arguments i n c o n t e x t , t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s r e c e n t t r e n d s and c u r r e n t v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e l e v e l o f f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n Canada. The t h i r d s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e s t h e t h e o r y o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n on an i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l , t h e r e b y i s o l a t i n g t h o s e f a c t o r s which may be e x p e c t e d t o i n f l u e n c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . The e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e c o n c e r n i n g t h e s e f a c t o r s i s p r e s e n t e d i n S e c t i o n 4. The f i n a l s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e aims and o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e r e s e a r c h . . S e c t i o n _ 2 . R e c e n t T r e n d s , I n _ F e m a l e _ L a b o u r _ F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n I n Canada^ The t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e p e r i o d s i n c e t h e S e c o n d World War, has s e e n a d r a m a t i c i n c r e a s e i n f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . T a b l e I i l l u s t r a t e s t h e e x t e n t o f t h i s i n c r e a s e . I n 1921, l e s s t h a n one f i f t h o f w o r k i n g age f e m a l e s were i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . By 1977, t h i s p r o p o r t i o n had r i s e n t o a l m o s t h a l f . TABLE_I Female L a b o u r _ F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n I n Canada By Age Group, 1921 To 1977 Age Group Year 14-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 35-64 65+ 14 + 1921 29.6 39.8 19.5 12. 2i n.a. N.a. 12. 0 6.6 19.9 1931 26.5 4 7. 4 24.4 14.3 12. 9 11. 3 13. 2 6. 2 21.8 1941 26.8 46. 9 27.9 18. 1 14.5 11. 1 15. 2 5. 8 22.9 1951 37.8 46.9 24. 2 21.8 20. 4 14.5 19. 6 5. 1 24. 1 19612 34.2 C 49.5 29.6 31. 1 33. 4 24.4 30. 3 6.7 29.7 1971 2 37.0 6 2. 8 44.5 43.9 44. 4 34. 4 41. 5 8.3 39.9 19762 3 47. 9 69.8 54. 2 52.9 47.8 31.9 4 5. 2 4.0 45.4 1977 46.9 71. 3 55.6 55.3 49. 2 32.0 46. 5 4. 3 46. 2 1 Women 35-49 2 Women 15-19 3 L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y , May-June a v e r a g e . S o u r c e : O s t r y and Z a i d i (1979, p. 41.) F o r y e a r s 1921-1941, t a k e n from D e n t o n and O s t r y (1965); f o r 1951-1971, C e n s u s o f Canada,1971; f o r 1976-7, R e v i s e d L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y . . These f i g u r e s r e p r e s e n t l a b o u r f o r c e membership d u r i n g a p a r t i c u l a r s u r v e y week; a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f women would be l a b o u r f o r c e members a t some t i m e d u r i n g any y e a r . Most s t r i k i n g has been t h e i n c r e a s e i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n by m i d d l e aged and o l d e r women. The p r o p o r t i o n o f women between 35 and 64 who were i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e a l m o s t q u a d r u p l e d o v e r t h i s p e r i o d , w h i l e t h e i n c r e a s e i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n by y o u n g e r women was modest by c o m p a r i s o n . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e p r o p o r t i o n of m a r r i e d women i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e has i n c r e a s e d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , d e t a i l e d h i s t o r i c a l s t a t i s t i c s on p a r t i c i p a t i o n by m a r i t a l s t a t u s do n o t e x i s t ; however, O s t r y and Z a i d i (1979) s u g g e s t t h a t P r i o r t o W o r l d War Two, f e w e r t h a n 3 o r 4 p e r c e n t o f m a r r i e d women worked o u t s i d e t h e i r homes..Even i n 1951, o n l y j u s t o v e r 10 p e r c e n t had e n t e r e d t h e l a b o u r market, (p.42.) By 1961 t h i s p r o p o r t i o n had r i s e n t o 22 p e r c e n t ; by 1971, 37 p e r c e n t . The c o m p a r a b l e f i g u r e f o r 1976 was 43.7 p e r c e n t . . T h e i n f l u e n c e o f i n c r e a s e d l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 1 . . P r i o r t o 1951, a g e - s p e c i f i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s peaked i n t h e 20 t o 24 age group and d e c l i n e d t h e r e a f t e r . By 1961, a 'two-peaked' p a r t i c i p a t i o n p r o f i l e was a p p a r e n t , w i t h p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s r e l a t i v e l y low d u r i n g t h e c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s from 25 t o 34 and r i s i n g t h e r e a f t e r t o a s e c o n d , l o w e r peak between t h e a g e s o f 35 and 44, r e f l e c t i n g r e - e n t r y i n t o t h e l a b o u r m a r k e t . T h i s change i n t h e b e h a v i o u r o f m a r r i e d women l e d t o an i n c r e a s e o f more t h a n 25 p e r c e n t i n t h e o v e r a l l f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e between 1951 and 1961, d e s p i t e a s l i g h t d e c r e a s e i n t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f s i n g l e f e m a l e s and d e s p i t e c h a n g e s i n t h e age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h , a l o n e , would have t e n d e d t o d e p r e s s r a t e s FIGUBE 1 Female . . P a r t i c i p a t i o n , Prof iles_BY_Age x_Canada t. 1951 To 1971 P a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e 1971 \ 1961 1951 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1971 Census Volume 3 Part 1 Table 1 45-54 55-64 6 (Allingham, 1967a). A number of factors have contributed to t h i s increase i n female labour force p a r t i c i p a t i o n . On the supply side, decreased f e r t i l i t y and the greater a v a i l i b i l i t y of labour-saving devices have lightened domestic r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . At the same time,the range of goods and services considered necessary for a •reasonable' standard of l i v i n g has expanded, providing a strong f i n a n c i a l incentive towards market work (Connelly, 1976,1978). Urbanization has f a c i l i t a t e d access to employment opportunities, while the general increase i n education levels may have both strengthened women's preferences for work outside the home and increased their attractiveness to employers (Ostry and Zaidi,1979). On the demand side, s t r u c t u r a l changes i n the economy have led to a more than proportional increase i n those jobs generally considered to be suitable for women. 1 Growth i n rea l incomes has increased the demand for services of various types, including professional services. Because service industries are i n general labour intensive, offering l i m i t e d scope for productivity increase, the demand for labour in these industries has rise n r e l a t i v e to the economy as a whole. The increasing complexity of production and exchange, together with the expansion of the public sector, has led to a greater need for c l e r i c a l workers. I t i s i n these sectors that the majority of women work: i n 1971, almost two th i r d s of the female labour force was i n professional, c l e r i c a l or service occupations. Between 1935 and 1961, the proportion of the labour force i n 1 The i n d u s t r i a l and occupational d i s t r i b u t i o n of the female labour force i s discussed in more d e t a i l i n section 5. t h e s e t h r e e o c c u p a t i o n g r o u p s i n c r e a s e d f r o m 22 p e r c e n t t o 34.7 p e r c e n t ( M e l t z , 1 9 6 5 ) . . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e Economic C o u n c i l o f Canada (1 9 7 6 ) , o f t h e n e t growth i n employment between 1961 and 1974, 39 p e r c e n t was i n s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s , and a f u r t h e r 17.8 p e r c e n t i n t r a d e . Thus b o t h demand and s u p p l y f a c t o r s have e n c o u r a g e d f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , w h i l e t h e demand f o r goods and s e r v i c e s g e n e r a t e d by women's i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n has i n i t s e l f c r e a t e d demand f o r t h e l a b o u r o f o t h e r women. I n a d d i t i o n , a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d s f e m a l e employment have u n d o u b t e d l y become more f a v o u r a b l e , a l t h o u g h whether t h i s was a m o t i v a t i n g f a c t o r b e h i n d t h e i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n , or> a r e s u l t o f i t , i s a m a t t e r f o r d e b a t e . A l t h o u g h f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s have i n c r e a s e d i n a l l r e g i o n s of Canada, wide r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s o c c u r and i n some c a s e s have p e r s i s t e d o v e r most o f t h e c e n t u r y . T a b l e I I shows f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s by p r o v i n c e o v e r t h e p e r i o d from 1911 t o 1976 (1951 t o 1976 i n t h e c a s e o f N e w f o u n d l a n d ) . T h r o u g h o u t t h e p e r i o d , r a t e s i n t h e A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s have been low r e l a t i v e t o t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e , t h e o n l y e x c e p t i o n b e i n g i n P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d where t h e y have i n c r e a s e d r a p i d l y s i n c e 1961, s o t h a t by 1976 t h e y were c l o s e t o t h e n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e . R a t e s i n O n t a r i o and M a n i t o b a have c o n s i s t e n t l y been h i g h , w h i l e b o t h A l b e r t a and S a s k a t c h e w a n , where p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s were low a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e p e r i o d , e x p e r i e n c e d r a p i d growth i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n s u c h t h a t by 1976 t h e r a t e s i n A l b e r t a were t h e h i g h e s t i n t h e c o u n t r y . P a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a have grown a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same r a t e as i n t h e c o u n t r y a s a 8 T A B L E _ I I Female L a b o u r F o r c e _ . P a r t i c i p a t i g n _ g a t e s _ ^ 1 9 1 1 1921 1931 19411 1951 1 9 6 1 1971 1976 Canada 16. 2 17.6 19.6 20. 7 24. 1 29.5 39. 2 44.8 N f l d . - - - 16.0 18.4 25.7 31.9 P.E.I. 12.3 .13. 5 15.0 16. 1 18.5 24.7 38. 1 43.9 N.S. . 15.0 16. 8 16.6 18.6 19. 9 24.5 33.4 37.9 H.B. . 14.7 16. 2 17. 1 18.2 20.5 24.8 33.6 38.6 Que.. 16. 2 18.7 21.9 22.9 25. 0 27.9 33.9 41.2 Ont.. 17. 6 19. 1 20.6 22. 3 26. 5 32.6 43. 7 47.8 Man. 16.7 17.6 20.0 19.3 24.2 31.5 41.7 46.4 Sask. 10.9 12.6 14.3 14.9 1°8.7 26.4 38. 6 46.4 A l t a . . 12.7 13. 2 15.7 15.7 20. 4 30.8 43.8 50.0 B.C. 17. 1 16.2 19.5 18.6 23.4 28.3 39.8 44.9 I n c l u d i n g p e r s o n s on a c t i v e s e r v i c e S o u r c e ; 1911 - 1971: S t a t i s t i c s Canada 1971 Census Volume 3 P a r t 1 T a b l e 1 1976 S t a t i s t i c s Canada 1976 Census Volume 5 T a b l e 5 whole. In Quebec, which a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e p e r i o d had t h e h i g h e s t f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f any p r o v i n c e , p a r t i c i p a t i o n grew r e l a t i v e l y s l o w l y and by 1976 r a t e s t h e r e were below t h e C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e . The a b s o l u t e r a n g e o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s has widened somewhat, even e x c l u d i n g N e w f o u n d l a n d , w h i l e i n r e l a t i v e t e r m s t h e r e has been some s l i g h t t e n d e n c y t o c o n v e r g e n c e . . As T a b l e I I I shows, a s i m i l a r p a t t e r n i s e v i d e n t f o r a l l m a r i t a l s t a t u s g r o u p s , a l t h o u g h t h e v a r i a t i o n among s i n g l e women i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l . I n a d d i t i o n t o i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n c e s , i n t r a p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s may be o b s e r v e d between u r b a n and r u r a l a r e a s , between r u r a l f a rm and non-farm women, and between u r b a n a r e a s of d i f f e r e n t s i z e . With a few e x c e p t i o n s , t h e t e n d e n c y i s f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s t o be h i g h e s t i n m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s and l o w e s t among r u r a l n o n - f a r m women, t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i n s m a l l e r towns and f o r f a r m women b e i n g i n t e r m e d i a t e . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e s some of t h e f a c t o r s w hich may i n f l u e n c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n by i n d i v i d u a l s , and c o n s e q u e n t l y which may a c c o u n t f o r some o f t h e s e v a r i a t i o n s . . S e c t i o n 3._The TheprY_Of L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n ^ I n t r a d i t i i o n a l e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s , p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s viewed as an a s p e c t o f l a b o u r s u p p l y , o t h e r d i m e n s i o n s o f l a b o u r s u p p l y b e i n g t h e h o u r s s u p p l i e d by l a b o u r f o r c e members, t h e i n t e n s i t y o f e f f o r t a nd t h e p a r t i c u l a r s k i l l s o f f e r e d . The t o o l s o f consumer c h o i c e a r e a d o p t e d t o d e p i c t f o r an i n d i v i d u a l an o p t i m a l d i v i s i o n o f t i m e between work and l e i s u r e , on t h e b a s i s o f t h e g o i n g wage r a t e and t h a t i n d i v i d u a l ' s s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e s 10 TABLE I I I Female L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n R a t e s By P r o v i n c e A n d M a r i t a l Status,, 1971. S i n g l e M a r r i e d Widowed ( i n c l u d e s s e p a r a t e d ) and d i v o r c e d Canada N f l d . P .E.I. . N.S. . N.B. Que. Ont. . Man. Sask. A l t a . B.C. 53.5 42. 2 47.4 47. 1 45.0 52.2 56. 3 55.6 46. 5 56. 1 56.6 37.0 21.3 38.2 31.2 31.9 28. 4 43.0 40. 4 39.5 42.7 37.4 26. 6 13. 4 26. 6 22. 8 22. 5 20.8 29. 2 27.6 24. 9 31. 9 30.3 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s Canada 1971 C e n s u s . Volume 3 P a r t 1 T a b l e 5. 11 between l e i s u r e and the goods earned by market work.. This optimum i s depicted graphically in Figure 2 (a) . The v e r t i c a l axis represents income or goods, the horizontal axis time. T (0) indicates the t o t a l time avai l a b l e , with hours of l e i s u r e measured rightwards from the o r i g i n , and hours of work leftwards from the point T (0). X (1) . . . . . X (n) represent the i n d i v i d u a l ' s indifference curves, each one showing the various combinations of goods and l e i s u r e which w i l l y i e l d equal u t i l i t y . At any point on a curve, the slope indicates the marginal rate of substitution of l e i s u r e for goods, that i s , the amount of goods which would be traded for an a d d i t i o n a l unit of l e i s u r e . The • r a t i o n a l ' i n d i v i d u a l w i l l seek to maximise u t i l i t y , subject to the constraints imposed by time and income. The potential income available i s represented by the l i n e VYmax, the slope (z) of t h i s l i n e being the wage rate. Non-labour income available to the i n d i v i d u a l i s shown by T(0)V. Working a l l available hours w i l l y i e l d an income of Ymax. Working (T(0)-T ( 1 ) ) hours yields an income of Y ( 1 ); i n t h i s position, the wage rate exceeds the marginal rate of substitution and the individual can increase his u t i l i t y (move to a higher indifference curve) by working longer hours. Conversely, working (T(0)-T(2)) hours, the marginal rate of substitution exceeds the wage rate, and the i n d i v i d u a l ' s u t i l i t y w i l l be increased by working fewer hours and 'consuming' more le i s u r e and fewer goods. At T(*) hours of work, the marginal rate of substitution equals the wage rate (the income l i n e i s tangent to the indifference curve) and the i n d i v i d u a l i s therefore attaining the maximum utility.compatible with the given wage rate and 'tastes'. FIGURE_2 1 3 I f t h e p r e f e r e n c e f o r l e i s u r e i s s u c h t h a t t h e m a r g i n a l r a t e o f s u b s t i t u t i o n o f l e i s u r e f o r goods e v e r y w h e r e e x c e e d s t h e wage r a t e , t h e n t h e o p t i m a l h o u r s o f work w i l l be z e r o and t h e i n d i v i d u a l w i l l n o t p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e ( F i g u r e 2 (b)) . I f t h e i n d i v i d u a l i s n o t f r e e t o v a r y c o n t i n u o u s l y t h e h o u r s o f l a b o u r s u p p l i e d and must work some i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y d e t e r m i n e d minimum i f he o r she works a t a l l , t h e n u t i l i t y may a g a i n be maximised by r e m a i n i n g o u t s i d e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . T h i s i s shown i n f i g . . 2 ( c ) . . S i n c e t h e p r e f e r r e d w o r k - l e i s u r e c o m b i n a t i o n T ( * ) , Y ( * ) i s not a v a i l a b l e , a h i g h e r l e v e l o f u t i l i t y i s o b t a i n e d by wo r k i n g z e r o h o u r s ( u t i l i t y = x ( 2 ) ) t h a n by w o r k i n g t h e minimum h o u r s T(min) ( u t i l i t y = x ( 1 ) ) . F i g u r e 3 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e e f f e c t o f c h a n g e s i n n o n l a b o u r income and wages on l a b o u r s u p p l y . Assuming t h a t l e i s u r e i s a •n o r m a l ' g o o d , t h a t i s , has a p o s i t i v e income e l a s t i c i t y o f demand, t h e n an i n c r e a s e i n n o n - l a b o u r income f r o m T ( 0 ) V ( 1 ) t o T(0)V(2) w i l l c a u s e t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f l e i s u r e t o i n c r e a s e and t h e h o u r s c f l a b o u r s u p p l i e d t o f a l l , f r o m ( T ( 0 ) T T ( 1 ) ) t o ( T ( 0 ) -T (2)) . ( F i g u r e 3 (a)) . A change i n t h e wage r a t e may, however, i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e t h e l a b o u r s u p p l i e d . S i n c e t h e income which c a n be e a r n e d f r o m a g i v e n number o f h o u r s worked h a s i n c r e a s e d , t h e i n d i v i d u a l c an a f f o r d t o ' p u r c h a s e ' more l e i s u r e , as i n t h e p r e v i o u s c a s e . On t h e o t h e r hand, s i n c e t h e ' c o s t ' o f l e i s u r e , i n t e r m s o f e a r n i n g s f o r e g o n e , has i n c r e a s e d , making g o o d s c h e a p e r r e l a t i v e t o l e i s u r e t h a n f o r m e r l y t h e i n d i v i d u a l may wish t o s u b s t i t u t e goods f o r l e i s u r e , w o r k i n g l o n g e r h o u r s . I n 1 5 F i g u r e 3{b) t h e n e g a t i v e 'income e f f e c t ' on l a b o u r s u p p l y p r e v a i l s , i n f i g u r e 3 ( c ) , t h e p o s i t i v e ' s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t ' . C o n f i n i n g t h e a n a l y s i s t o t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n d e c i s i o n — t h e c h o i c e between s u p p l y i n g z e r o and some p o s i t i v e q u a n t i t y o f h o u r s t o t h e m a r k e t — a n i n c r e a s e i n n o n - l a b o u r income w i l l t e n d t o have a d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . An i n c r e a s e i n t h e wage r a t e , however, w i l l t e n d t o e n c o u r a g e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , s i n c e a p e r s o n n o t c u r r e n t l y p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e w i l l e x p e r i e n c e no income e f f e c t s a l t h o u g h t h e " c o s t " o f l e i s u r e w i l l s t i l l be i n c r e a s e d . A wage i n c r e a s e may t h e r e f o r e draw a non-p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n d i v i d u a l i n t o t h e l a b o u r market o r l e a v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n unchanged b u t , i n t h i s s i m p l e model, c a n n o t r e d u c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . C o n v e r s e l y a wage d e c r e a s e may c a u s e w o r k e r s t o l e a v e t h e . l a b o u r f o r c e , b u t , s i n c e t h e r e w i l l be no i n c o m e e f f e c t on t h o s e o u t s i d e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e t h e r e w i l l be no o f f s e t t i n g t e n d e n c y f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n t o i n c r e a s e . A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s s i m p l e model, t h e r e f o r e , t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l v a r y d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e wage r a t e , i n v e r s e l y w i t h n o n - l a b o u r i n c o m e , and w i l l be l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e s f o r l e i s u r e a s o p p o s e d t o g o o d s . T h i s a n a l y s i s i s p r i m a r i l y s u i t e d t o m a r g i n a l r e s p o n s e t o s m a l l c h a n g e s r a t h e r t h a n t o t h e e i t h e r / o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n d e c i s i o n . To e x t e n d i t , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r t h e f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g p r e f e r e n c e s , and t o i n t r o d u c e a number o f r e f i n e m e n t s . F i r s t l y , t h e w o r k / l e i s u r e d i c h o t o m y o f t h e s i m p l e model i s c l e a r l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e . F o r most i n d i v i d u a l s and p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r m a r r i e d women, t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f t i m e w i l l i n s t e a d i n v o l v e a t r i p a r t i t e c h o i c e : between market work, 16 l e i s u r e and 'nonmarket work 1, which i n c l u d e s a l l types of work i n the home as w e l l as e d u c a t i o n . While the income d e r i v e d from market work can p r o v i d e s u b s t i t u t e s i n the form of paid c h i l d c a re, r e s t a u r a n t meals, and so on, i n g e n e r a l , the g r e a t e r the extent of work i n the home the higher w i l l be the wage at which p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the labour market becomes worthwhile.. In p a r t i c u l a r , the presence of young c h i l d r e n i s l i k e l y to i n h i b i t p a r t i c i p a t i o n . In the theory of labour supply, t h i s has l e d t o the concept of the 'asking wage' or ' r e s e r v a t i o n wage', r e f l e c t i n g the i n d i v i d u a l ' s p r o d u c t i v i t y i n the home and consequently the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s of t a k i n g a job. I f t h i s r e s e r v a t i o n wage i s not met or exceeded, then the i n d i v i d u a l w i l l not p a r t i c i p a t e i n the labour f o r c e . We can t h e r e f o r e p r e d i c t t h a t the g r e a t e r the extent of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s 'home p r o d u c t i v i t y ' , or the g r e a t e r the extent of domestic or s i m i l a r r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , the l e s s l i k e l y t h a t he or she w i l l p a r t i c i p a t e i n the labour f o r c e . Secondly, the labour supply d e c i s i o n s of f a m i l y members are l i k e l y t o be taken on a j o i n t r a t h e r than an i n d i v i d u a l b a s i s . In the case of married women, i f i t i s assumed t h a t the husband's labou r supply d e c i s i o n i s primary and independent,with the wife's d e c i s i o n c o n d i t i o n a l , then the nonlabour income a n a l y s i s d e s c r i b e d above i s a p p r o p r i a t e and i t can be p r e d i c t e d t h a t the p r o b a b i l i t y of a married woman's p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l vary i n v e r s e l y with her husband's income. I f i t i s assumed t h a t the labour supply d e c i s i o n s of both or a l l f a m i l y members are interdependent and are t h e r e f o r e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y determined, then a more complex a n a l y s i s based on the r e s p e c t i v e home and market 17 p r o d u c t i v i t i e s of both members i s c a l l e d f o r . In g e n e r a l , though, the former assumption has been made. In a d d i t i o n t o the earnings of f a m i l y members, the f a m i l y ' s a s s e t and debt p o s i t i o n may be r e l e v a n t . P h y s i c a l as w e l l as f i n a n c i a l a s s e t s may be thought of as y i e l d i n g nonlabour income, and may a l s o be converted to cash to s u s t a i n consumption d u r i n g p e r i o d s of temporary hardship. Other t h i n g s being equal, then, the higher a f a m i l y ' s l e v e l of asset h o l d i n g s the l e s s l i k e l y i s the wife to be i n the labour f o r c e . T h i r d l y , the question a r i s e s of whether 'permanent' or • t r a n s i t o r y ' income i s the r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e on the b a s i s o f which supply d e c i s i o n s are taken. Mincer (1960) , d e a l i n g s p e c i f i c a l l y with the p a r t i c i p a t i o n of married women, suggests that the t o t a l g u a n t i t y of labour s u p p l i e d to the market over a woman's married l i f e i s made on the b a s i s of the f a m i l y ' s l o n g -run or permanent income, e x c l u d i n g her own e a r n i n g s . However, the t i m i n g of market a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be ad j u s t e d t o r e f l e c t the i n f l u e n c e s o p e r a t i v e at a p a r t i c u l a r time. Some of these i n f l u e n c e s w i l l vary according t o ' l i f e c y c l e ' i n f l u e n c e s . . T h u s p a r t i c i p a t i o n by married women i s l i k e l y to be higher i n the e a r l y years of marriage when the husband's income i s below i t s expected long run l e v e l , lower when the presence of young c h i l d r e n t e m p o r a r i l y i n c r e a s e s the r e s e r v a t i o n wage. The t i m i n g of p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l a l s o be i n f l u e n c e d by, . . . c y c l i c a l and random v a r i a t i o n s i n wage r a t e s , employment op p o r t u n i t i e s , i n c o m e and employment of other f a m i l y members, p a r t i c u l a r l y of the head. (Mincer, 1960, p. 68.) The r e f e r e n c e to c y c l i c a l c o n d i t i o n s b r i n g s us to a f o u r t h 18 amendment n e c e s s a r y t o t h e s i m p l e model. The i m p l i c i t a s s u m p t i o n i s made o f an i n f i n i t e l y e l a s t i c demand f o r l a b o u r , p r e c l u d i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f unemployment. I n r e a l i t y , a l a b o u r f o r c e member may c f c o u r s e be employed o r unemployed, and t h e l e v e l o f unemployment i s i t s e l f l i k e l y t o e x e r t an i n f l u e n c e on t h e s i z e o f the l a b o u r f o r c e . The d i r e c t i o n and m agnitude o f t h i s i n f l u e n c e have been m a t t e r s f o r much d e b a t e . The ' d i s c o u r a g e d worker* h y p o t h e s i s s u g g e s t s t h a t h i g h unemployment r a t e s w i l l c a u s e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e t o s h r i n k . Some w r i t e r s , f o r example S w i d i n s k y (1969) have r e f e r r e d t o t h e d i s c o u r a g e d worker e f f e c t a s r e f l e c t i n g d i r e c t l y t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t s o f c y c l i c a l c h a n g e s i n (or s t r u c t u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n ) t h e l e v e l o f wages. M i n c e r (1960) a l s o a t t r i b u t e d t h e d i s c o u r a g e d w o r k e r e f f e c t t o c h a n g e s i n wage r a t e s , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t h e ' r a t i o n a l ' woman would t i m e h e r l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n t o c o i n c i d e w i t h t i m e s o f market p r o s p e r i t y when work o f f e r s g r e a t e r r e w a r d s . A somewhat p r e f e r a b l e t h e o r e t i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e d i s c o u r a g e d w o r k e r e f f e c t — p r e f e r a b l e i n t h a t i t does n o t r e s t on t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f wage r a t e s which a r e f l e x i b l e i n b o t h d i r e c t i o n s — w a s d e v e l o p e d by K u n i n ( 1 9 7 0 ) . I n K u n i n ' s model, t h e m a r g i n a l w o r k e r t a k e s t h e d e c i s i o n t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n o r r e m a i n o u t s i d e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e on t h e b a s i s o f t h e e x p e c t e d c o s t s and b e n e f i t s o f a j o b s e a r c h . I n t i m e s o f h i g h unemployment, e v e n w i t h c o n s t a n t wages, t h e r e w i l l be a r e d u c e d i n c e n t i v e t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e by s e e k i n g o r c o n t i n u i n g t o s e e k work, s i n c e , w i t h f e w e r v a c a n c i e s , b o t h t h e t i m e and money c o s t s o f a j o b s e a r c h w i l l be i n c r e a s e d , w h i l e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f f i n d i n g work w i l l be r e d u c e d . 19 The a d d e d worker h y p o t h e s i s , by c o n t r a s t , s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e l a b o u r f o r c e w i l l e xpand r a t h e r t h a n s h r i n k d u r i n g t i m e s o f h i g h unemployment. T h i s h y p o t h e s i s s u g g e s t s t h a t , as ' p r i m a r y workers* become unemployed, o t h e r f a m i l y m e m b e r s — m a r r i e d women, r e t i r e d p e r s o n s , t e e n a g e r s — w i l l e n t e r t h e l a b o u r f o r c e i n o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n f a m i l y i n c o m e s . . U s i n g M i n c e r ' s t e r m i n o l o g y , t h e added w o r k e r r e s p o n s e i s a r e a c t i o n t o n e g a t i v e t r a n s i t o r y income i n d u c e d by unemployment. Of c o u r s e , b o t h e f f e c t s may o c c u r s i m u l t a n e o u s l y , t h e n e t r e p o n s e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e t o c h a n g e s i n unemployment d e p e n d i n g upon w h i c h e f f e c t i s s t r o n g e r . The r e s p o n s e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e t o v a r i a t i o n s i n l a b o u r demand i s o f p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i n i t s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r e c onomic p o l i c y . P r e d o m i n a n t d i s c o u r a g e d worker b e h a v i o u r would s u g g e s t t h a t , i n t i m e s o f heavy unemployment, s i g n i f i c a n t d i s g u i s e d unemployment e x i s t s a s w e l l . T h a t i s , t h e r e a r e more p e o p l e w i t h o u t work who would l i k e t o work t h a n a r e i n d i c a t e d by unemployment s t a t i s t i c s . Where r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s i n unemployment e x i s t — e i t h e r as d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e l e v e l o f s t r u c t u r a l unemployment o r as d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e l e v e l o f c y c l i c a l s e v e r i t y — t h e n t h e p r e s e n c e o f d i s g u i s e d unemployment i n t h e more s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d r e g i o n s i s l i k e l y t o l e a d t o an u n d e r e s t i m a t e o f t h e e x t e n t of r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t i e s . The a d o p t i o n o f p o l i c i e s aimed a t f u l l employment becomes c o m p l i c a t e d s i n c e , as employment e x p a n d s , t h o s e who were • d i s c o u r a g e d w o r k e r s ' w i l l r e - e n t e r t h e l a b o u r f o r c e i n r e s p o n s e t o i m p r o v e d c o n d i t i o n s , p e r h a p s l e a v i n g t h e l e v e l o f open unemployment l i t t l e c h a n ged. C o n v e r s e l y , d o m i n a n t added w o r k e r b e h a v i o u r may l e a d t o an 20 overstatement of the r e a l c y c l i c a l s e v e r i t y o f , or r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t i e s i n , unemployment. In t h i s case, the a c t u a l shortage of jobs w i l l be l e s s than the numbers unemployed, s i n c e the new e n t r a n t s to the labour f o r c e i n times of unemployment w i l l need work, not i n a d d i t i o n to those unemployed, but only f o r the d u r a t i o n of t h e i r unemployment, and w i l l withdraw from the labour f o r c e when c o n d i t i o n s improve. The t h e o r y o u t l i n e d above prov i d e s the r a t i o n a l e f o r most of the e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s which are d i s c u s s e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . I t p r e d i c t s — n o t u n e x p e c t e d l y — t h a t the g r e a t e r a woman's e a r n i n g power, and t h e r e f o r e her education and other s k i l l s , the more l i k e l y she i s t o be i n the labour f o r c e . The higher the f a m i l y ' s other income and a s s e t h o l d i n g , and the g r e a t e r the extent of her domestic r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , the more l i k e l y she i s to be o u t s i d e i t . Unemployment e x e r t s both p o s i t i v e and negative i n f l u e n c e s , the net e f f e c t being a matter f o r e m p i r i c a l d e t e r m i n a t i o n . There remains w i t h i n the theory a r o l e f o r p e r s o n a l t a s t e s and p r e f e r e n c e s , some of which may be r e f l e c t e d as d i f f e r e n c e s i n behaviour of groups of women d i f f e r i n g i n e t h n i c , r e l i g i o u s or r e s i d e n t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I t should be pointed out t h a t t h i s consumer choice based approach t o labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n has been the s u b j e c t of c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t a c k by more r a d i c a l w r i t e r s : a t t a c k based both on i t s l i m i t a t i o n s and on i t s u n d e r l y i n g assumptions. McFarland (1976) comments t h a t the e m p i r i c a l works d i s c u s s e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n ...show l i t t l e f a m i l i a r i t y with any of the women's l i t e r a t u r e , which suggest t h a t the three most important f a c t o r s a wife's d e c i s i o n about whether or not to work 21 would be the a t t i t u d e of those around her to her working, p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t of her husband; how she p e r c e i v e s her p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n the labour m a r k e t — s p e c i f i c a l l y , the extent of d i s c r i m i n a t i o n she w i l l have to face and the l i m i t s to her upward m o b i l i t y ; and l a s t l y , the a v a i l i b i l i t y o f daycare f a c i l i t i e s at a reasonable c o s t , (p.30.) Marsden (1977) c r i t i c i s e s the standard assumption that women w i l l i n e v i t a b l y be secondary workers with c h i l d r e a r i n g t h e i r c e n t r a l concern. At the same time she que s t i o n s the automatic acceptance of the prime age male work p a t t e r n as a norm, which n e g l e c t s t o examine the power r e l a t i o n s h i p s which have l e d i t t o be regarded i t as such while l a r g e l y denying access to t h i s norm to married women. In a more e x t e n s i v e a n a l y s i s from a M a r x i s t s t a n d p o i n t , C o n n e l l y (1978) argues that women have f i l l e d the r o l e of a r e s e r v e army of labour i n c a p i t a l i s t p r o d u c t i o n , p r o v i d i n g a cheap and r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e source of workers f o r pe r i o d s of expansion. Fear by male workers of t h e i r c o m p e t i t i o n e x e r t i n g a downward pressure on male wages f has l a r g e l y segregated them i n 'female' occupations and, because of changes i n the s t r u c t u r e of the economy, these have been c h a r a c t e r i s e d i n r e c e n t decades by constant expansion. She comments. In r e j e c t i n g the consumer c h o i c e model I have e s s e n t i a l l y r e j e c t e d an approach that c e n t r e s on s u b j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s and i n d i v i d u a l c h o i c e s to e x p l a i n behaviour. . The consumer c h o i c e approach reduces the d i f f i c u l t i e s working women f a c e to i n d i v i d u a l problems and by i m p l i c a t i o n d i r e c t s women to seek p r i m a r i l y i n d i v i d u a l s o l u t i o n s . She suggests i n s t e a d that Women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n wage labour i s not a matter of immediate s i t u a t i o n a l f a c t o r s , but r a t h e r of p r e s t r u c t u r e d a l t e r n a t i v e s which d i r e c t the d e c i s i o n s women are compelled t o make, (p. 76.) While r e c o g n i s i n g the v a l i d i t y of these c r i t i c i s m s , i n 22 d e f e n c e o f t h e consumer c h o i c e t h e o r y i t might be s a i d t h a t , i n g e n e r a l , i t p r e t e n d s no more t h a n an a n a l y s i s o f c u r r e n t b e h a v i o u r . E x a m i n i n g p a t t e r n s o f b e h a v i o u r w i t h i n a g i v e n s t r u c t u r a l c o n t e x t need n o t be i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s which have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h a t c o n t e x t . The d i f f e r e n c e l i e s m a i n l y i n e m p h a s i s , and i f t h e consumer c h o i c e t h e o r y h a s l e d t o an o b s c u r i n g o f s u c h w i d e r i n f l u e n c e t h e n t h i s i s a weakness l e s s i n t h e t h e o r y i t s e l f t h a n i n t h o s e who have a p p l i e d i t . S e c t i o n , , 4. . E m p i r i c a l , S t u d i e s Of Female L a b o u r F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n I n Canada. T h i s s e c t i o n summarises t h e e v i d e n c e c o n c e r n i n g i n f l u e n c e s on f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n p r o v i d e d by t h e e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s c a r r i e d o u t i n Canada i n r e c e n t y e a r s . T h e s e s t u d i e s f a l l r o u g h l y i n t o two g r o u p s . .The f i r s t f i v e , o f wh i c h f o u r were c a r r i e d o u t under t h e a u s p i c e s o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada o r i t s p r e d e c e s s o r , a r e c o n c e r n e d o n l y w i t h women and, i n a l l b u t one c a s e , o n l y w i t h m a r r i e d women. They p r o v i d e a f a i r l y g e n e r a l o v e r v i e w o f t h e i n f l u e n c e s a t work, c o n s i d e r i n g s o c i a l , d e m o g r a p h i c and economic f a c t o r s . The o t h e r s t u d i e s i n v e s t i g a t e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e b e h a v i o u r o f b o t h s e x e s , a r e c o n c e r n e d s p e c i f i c a l l y w i t h e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s and, i n p a r t i c u l a r , w i t h t h e e f f e c t s of unemployment on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The f i r s t o f t h e s t u d i e s c o n s i d e r e d ( A l l i n g h a m , 1 9 6 7 b ) u s e d s p e c i a l c r o s s - t a b u l a t i c n s from t h e 1961 Ce n s u s t o examine t h e i n f l u e n c e o f a g e , e d u c a t i o n and m a r i t a l s t a t u s on f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . T a b u l a t i n g t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o f women i n d i f f e r e n t age g r o u p s , c o n t r o l l e d f o r e d u c a t i o n , A l l i n g h a m 23 reached the c o n c l u s i o n that m a r i t a l s t a t u s was the s i n g l e most important v a r i a b l e but th a t education e x e r t s a very s t r o n g p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e . In p a r t i c u l a r , the more educated women showed a more s t r i k i n g l y two peaked p a r t i c i p a t i o n p r o f i l e , r e f l e c t i n g a higher i n i t i a l l e v e l of p a r t i c i p a t i o n , a s t r o n g e r tendency f o r c h i l d b e a r i n g to be conce n t r a t e d i n the 30 to 34 age group, and a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n r e t u r n i n g t o work a f t e r t h i s age. The i n f l u e n c e of age as an independent v a r i a b l e was r e l a t i v e l y s l i g h t . Allingham and Spencer (1968), using the same data source, extended t h i s a n a l y s i s to i n v e s t i g a t e i n a d d i t i o n the i n f l u e n c e s of c h i l d s t a t u s , r e s i d e n c e and husband's educ a t i o n on married women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n . M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s using dummy v a r i a b l e s was used t o d e r i v e an estimate of the independent i n f l u e n c e s of each c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . For women under 44, c h i l d s t a t u s was found t o be the most important f a c t o r , the presence of c h i l d r e n under 6 e x e r t i n g a s t r o n g negative i n f l u e n c e . . T h i s e f f e c t was p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r o n g f o r women i n urban areas, which the authors suggest r e f l e c t s a higher c o s t of c h i l d c a r e s e r v i c e s . Education exerted a s t r o n g p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e on women i n a l l age groups, and was the most important f a c t o r f o r women over 45.. The i n f l u e n c e of education was most pronounced f o r women i n s m a l l e r urban c e n t r e s , perhaps i n d i c a t i n g high demand f o r such women's labour r e l a t i v e to t h e i r supply. Husband's education, used here as a proxy f o r income, exerted a n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e f o r a l l age and re s i d e n c e groups. Ostry (1968) a l s o analysed 1961 census data, using c r o s s -t a b u l a t i o n s , m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n with dummy v a r i a b l e s and 24 a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e . I n a d d i t i o n t o c o n f i r m i n g t h e r e s u l t s o f p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s c o n c e r n i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f e d u c a t i o n and c h i l d r e n , and t h e r e l a t i v e l y m i n o r i n d e p e n d e n t i n f l u e n c e o f age, h e r r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d a n e g a t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between p a r t i c i p a t i o n and husbands income, t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e i n g p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r o n g above a t h r e s h o l d o f $5,000. O s t r y i n c l u d e d r e g i o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . . The c o e f f i c i e n t s s u g g e s t e d t h a t , w h i l e t h e r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e was a l e s s i m p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n t h a n c h i l d s t a t u s , e d u c a t i o n , o r h u s b a n d ' s income, t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n d i d a p p e a r t o d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y f o r women o f d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s , i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f t h e o t h e r f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d . M a r r i e d women o f a l l a g e s i n t h e A t l a n t i c P r o v i n c e s and Quebec were l e s s l i k e l y t o be i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e t h a n women i n O n t a r i o , t h e P r a i r i e p r o v i n c e s , o r , t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . S p e n c e r and F e a t h e r s t o n e (1970) used d a t a c o l l e c t e d by t h e Dom i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s f r o m a sample o f n o n - f a r m h o u s e h o l d s used i n i t i a l l y f o r a S u r v e y o f Consumer F i n a n c e s i n 1964. M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n was u s e d , t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t a k i n g on a v a l u e of 1 where t h e w i f e was i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e , 0 o t h e r w i s e . . T h e f i n d i n g s of t h i s s t u d y r e g a r d i n g t h e m a j o r v a r i a b l e s c o n f i r m e d p r e v i o u s r e s u l t s . Women w i t h unemployed husbands were more l i k e l y t o be i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e , p r o v i d i n g e v i d e n c e o f added worker b e h a v i o u r . S i g n i f i c a n t r e g i o n a l i n f l u e n c e s , i n t h e same d i r e c t i o n s a s i n t h e p r e v i o u s s t u d y and p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r o n g f o r o l d e r women, were a l s o a p p a r e n t . The i n f l u e n c e o f t h e f a m i l y ' s a s s e t and d e b t p o s i t i o n was a l s o c o n s i d e r e d . H i g h e r h o l d i n g s o f v a r i o u s s h o r t and l o n g t e r m 25 f i n a n c i a l a s s e t s were a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e d u c e d p r o b a b i l i t y o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n , w h i l e a p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between p a r t i c i p a t i o n and d e b t h o l d i n g s was a p p a r e n t . A n o t h e r f a c t o r c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y was t h e p r e s e n c e o f a d d i t i o n a l a d u l t s . A p r i o r i , t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h i s f a c t o r on p a r t i c i p a t i o n c o u l d be p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e , d e p e n d i n g upon whether t h e a d d i t i o n a l h o u s e h o l d member was c o n t i b u t i n g t o , o r g e n e r a t i n g a d d i t i o n a l , h o u s e h o l d t a s k s . The n e t e f f e c t p r o v e d w e a k l y p o s i t i v e . S k o u l o s (1974) u n d e r t o o k an e x t e n s i v e e c o n o m e t r i c a n a l y s i s o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f m a r r i e d women i n Canada, u s i n g two d a t a s o u r c e s . The f i r s t was a sample o f n o n - f a r m f a m i l i e s w i t h husband and w i f e p r e s e n t , o b t a i n e d by m e r g i n g S t a t i s t i c s Canada's 1968 S u r v e y o f Consumer F i n a n c e s w i t h t h e L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p e r i p o d . . The s e c o n d c o n s i s t e d o f a g g r e g a t e d a t a from t h e 1961 C e n s u s , e x a m i n i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f o r 174 c i t i e s , towns and m u n i c i p a l s u b d i v i s i o n s . A n a l y s i n g t h e m i c r o d a t a , S k o u l o s u s e d r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t o e s t i m a t e t h e p a r a m e t e r s o f a f a m i l y u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n , u t i l i t y b e i n g a f u n c t i o n o f t h e w i f e ' s housework, t h e t o t a l f a m i l y income and t h e l e i s u r e o f b o t h p a r t n e r s , s u b j e c t t o t i m e and b udget c o n s t r a i n t s . The e x t e n t of housework was p r o x i e d by v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e number and age o f c h i l d r e n , t h e p r e s e n c e o f o t h e r a d u l t s i n t h e h o u s e h o l d , and o w n e r / r e n t e r s t a t u s (homeowners b e i n g assumed t o have a h i g h e r p r e f e r e n c e o r need f o r h o u s e w o r k ) . The w i f e ' s e d u c a t i o n was t a k e n as a p r o x y f o r h e r p o t e n t i a l market e a r n i n g s , w i t h o t h e r i n f l u e n c e s on f a m i l y p r e f e r e n c e s r e f l e c t e d by t h e i n c l u s i o n o f v a r i a b l e s 26 r e p r e e n t i n g t h e w i f e ' s age and i m m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s , t h e h u s b a n d ' s o c c u p a t i o n and employment s t a t u s , and t h e f a m i l y ' s p l a c e and r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e . S e p a r a t e r e g r e s s i o n s were r u n f o r t h e sample as a whole and f o r s u b s a m p l e s d e f i n e d i n t u r n by age, income g r o u p , r e s i d e n c e and r e g i o n . A g a i n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g c h i l d s t a t u s , e d u c a t i o n and f a m i l y income were s i g n i f i c a n t and had t h e e x p e c t e d s i g n . . P a r t i c i p a t i o n was h i g h e r f o r r e c e n t i m m i g r a n t s , women i n u r b a n a r e a s and t h o s e w i t h a t h i r d a d u l t i n t h e home. P a r t i c i p a t i o n was i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e number of weeks unemployment t h e husband had e x p e r i e n c e d d u r i n g t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r . However, s i n c e t h e i n c o m e v a r i a b l e r e f e r r e d t o t h e same t i m e p e r i o d , t h e i n f l u e n c e o f unemployment would a l s o be r e f l e c t e d i n r e d u c e d income, t e n d i n g t o i n c r e a s e t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n . S i n c e t h e i ncome e f f e c t was t h e s t r o n g e r , S k o u l o s s u g g e s t e d a n e t p o s i t i v e i m p a c t o f unemployment on p a r t i c i p a t i o n , a g a i n o f f e r i n g some s u p p o r t f o r t h e e x i s t e n c e o f n e t added worker b e h a v i o u r among m a r r i e d women. S i m i l a r r e s u l t s a p p l i e d t o women w i t h h u s b a n d s o u t s i d e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r . When s e p a r a t e r e g r e s s i o n s were r u n by r e g i o n , t h e r e s u l t s f o r t h e A t l a n t i c P r o v i n c e s and Quebec were f o u n d t o d i f f e r c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m t h o s e a r r i v e d a t f o r t h e r e s t o f t h e c o u n t r y . I n t h e A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s , t h e i n f l u e n c e e x e r t e d by t h e h usband's e d u c a t i o n , a husband o u t s i d e t h e l a b o u r f o r c e , and home o w n e r s h i p , were s t r o n g e r , t h e i n f l u e n c e s o f age and c h i l d s t a t u s l e s s i m p o r t a n t . I n g e n e r a l , t h e e q u a t i o n b o r e a s t r o n g r e s e m b l a n c e t o t h a t d e r i v e d from th e sample o f r u r a l women o n l y . I n Quebec, age, e d u c a t i o n and i m m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s a p p e a r e d t o 27 have a s t r o n g e r e f f e c t t h a n i n t h e r e s t o f t h e c o u n t r y . S k o u l o s ' s a n a l y s i s o f a g g r e g a t e C e nsus d a t a p r o v i d e d s i m i l a r r e s u l t s , a g a i n p r o v i d i n g s u p p o r t f o r t h e added w o r k e r h y p o t h e s i s . A wage v a r i a b l e , d e f i n e d as a v e r a g e e a r n i n g s o f f e m a l e s w o r k i n g f u l l t i m e was a l s o i n c l u d e d . I t s e f f e c t was p o s i t i v e , and e x c e e d e d t h e n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e x e r t e d by o t h e r f a m i l y i n c o m e . B o t h wage and income e f f e c t s d e c l i n e d w i t h age, which t h e a u t h o r i n t e r p r e t s as i n d i c a t i n g t h a t a s t r o n g i n d u c e m e n t , i n t h e f o r m o f need o r i n c e n t i v e , i s r e g u i r e d t o b r i n g a b o u t p a r t i c i p a t i o n by m a r r i e d women i n t h e c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s . The f i n a l s t u d y i n t h i s g r o u p was u n d e r t a k e n by G u n d e r s o n (1977) u s i n g a sample o f i n d i v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s ( n o n - f a r m women, hu s b a n d p r e s e n t ) f r o m t h e 1971 C e n s u s t o u n d e r t a k e an a n a l y s i s o f f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . A n a l y s e s were c a r r i e d o u t f o r e a c h r e g i o n and f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a whole. The e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of p a r t i c i p a t i o n and e d u c a t i o n , r e s i d e n c e , c h i l d s t a t u s and f a m i l y income were o b t a i n e d f o r a l l r e g i o n s . Age e x e r t e d some i n d e p e n d e n t i n f l u e n c e , s t r o n g e s t a f t e r t h e age o f 45. The e f f e c t o f age was c o n s i d e r a b l y s t r o n g e r i n Quebec t h a n i n t h e o t h e r r e g i o n s ; i n a d d i t i o n , t h e d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t o f s c h o o l a ge c h i l d r e n was g r e a t e r t h e r e . The p o s i t i v e i m p a c t o f e d u c a t i o n was g r e a t e s t i n th e M a r i t i m e s . F o r s t a t i s t i c a l r e a s o n s , t h e i n f l u e n c e o f an unemployed husband was e v a l u a t e d o n l y f o r t h e a l l - C a n a d a c a s e . S i n c e , u n l i k e i n t h e p r e v i o u s s t u d y , t h e income and unemployment v a r i a b l e s r e f e r r e d t o d i f f e r e n t t i m e p e r i o d s , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t on t h e unemployment v a r i a b l e c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d as r e p r e s e n t i n g 28 the n e t e f f e c t s o f unemployment r a t h e r t h a n o n l y a p a r t o f t h e e f f e c t s . B e c a u s e an i n d i v i d u a l ' s employment s t a t u s i s i n f l u e n c e d by many f a c t o r s b e s i d e s l o c a l employment c o n d i t i o n s , i t would t e n d t o r e f l e c t added worker b e h a v i o u r more r e a d i l y t h a n d i s c o u r a g e d w orker b e h a v i o u r , and was t h e r e f o r e e x p e c t e d t o have a p o s i t i v e s i g n . However i t p r o v e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y n e g a t i v e . G u n d e r s o n i n t e r p r e t e d t h i s r e s u l t as s t r o n g l y i n d i c a t i n g t h e a b s e n c e of added worker b e h a v i o u r , a l t h o u g h he warned t h a t c a u t i o n s h o u l d be used i n t a k i n g i t as e v i d e n c e o f a d i s c o u r a g e d worker e f f e c t . I n summary, a l l t h e s t u d i e s d i s c u s s e d above c o n f i r m t h e o r e t i c a l e x p e c t a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o most o f t h e major i n f l u e n c e s on f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , n o t a b l y , t h e p r e s e n c e o f c h i l d r e n , f a m i l y i n c o m e , t h e woman's p o t e n t i a l e a r n i n g s . Where r e g i o n a l f a c t o r s a r e c o n s i d e r e d , a c l e a r d i s t i n c t i o n i s a p p a r e n t between t h o s e r e g i o n s where f a c t o r s n o t e x p l i c i t l y c o n s i d e r e d a p p e a r t o f a v o u r p a r t i c i p a t i o n — O n t a r i o and t h e P r a i r i e P r o v i n c e s and, t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a — a n d t h o s e where an i n d e p e n d e n t n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s a p p a r e n t — t h e A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s and Quebec. The s t u d i e s p r o v i d e c o n f l i c t i n g r e s u l t s c o n c e r n i n g t h e i n f l u e n c e o f unemployment on p a r t i c i p a t i o n ; a c o n f l i c t which becomes s t i l l more a p p a r e n t when th e s t u d i e s w h i c h f o c u s s p e c i f i c a l l y on t h i s s u b j e c t a r e c o n s i d e r e d . The f i r s t s u c h s t u d y was c a r r i e d o u t by P r o u l x i n 1969. P r o u l x u s e d a n n u a l t i m e s e r i e s d a t a f r o m t h e L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y , r e g r e s s i n g t h e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f v a r i o u s a g e - s e x g r o u p s on, i n some c a s e s , t h e a g g r e g a t e unemployment 29 r a t e , i n o t h e r c a s e s , an i n d e x v a r i a b l e o f e x c e s s demand. P r o u l x * s r e s u l t s p r o v i d e d s u p p o r t f o r t h e a d d i t i o n a l w orker h y p o t h e s i s i n t h e c a s e o f men i n a g g r e g a t e and males ages 20 t o 24, and women aged 45 t o 64 and 65 and o v e r . D i s c o u r a g e d worker b e h a v i o u r was a p p a r e n t among women aged 20 t o 24 and men aged 14 t o 19... R e s u l t s were not r e p o r t e d f o r t h e o t h e r a g e - s e x g r o u p s , p r e s u m a b l y b e i n g s t a t i s t i c a l l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . O f f i c e r and A n d e r s o n ( 1 9 6 9 ) , u s i n g q u a r t e r l y L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y d a t a , r e g r e s s e d a g e - s e x s p e c i f i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s on v a r i o u s m e asures o f male unemployment, t h e measures i n c r e a s i n g i n t h e • i n t e n s i t y * r e f l e c t e d f r o m t h e number c u r r e n t l y unemployed t o t h o s e s e e k i n g work f o r s i x months o r l o n g e r . S e c u l a r c h a n g e s were r e f l e c t e d by t h e i n c l u s i o n o f v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g r e a l p e r c a p i t a i n come, consumer c r e d i t and, f o r f e m a l e s , t h e b i r t h r a t e . C o n t r a r y t o t h e f i n d i n g s o f P r o u l x , t h e d i s c o u r a g e d worker e f f e c t was f o u n d t o p r e d o m i n a t e f o r a l l male age g r o u p s . A l t h o u g h t h e l a b o u r f o r c e r e s p o n s e t o c u r r e n t unemployment was p o s i t i v e i n some c a s e s , t h i s was o u t w e i g h e d by a s t r o n g l y n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e to l o n g - t e r m unemployment..The same p a t t e r n was o b s e r v e d f o r t e e n a g e f e m a l e s , a l l o t h e r f e m a l e s e x h i b i t i n g added worker b e h a v i o u r . . S w i d i n s k y (1969) used t i m e s e r i e s d a t a from t h e L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y and c r o s s - s e c t i o n d a t a from t h e 1961 C e n s u s . The time s e r i e s e s t i m a t e s r e g r e s s e d g r o u p p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s on t h e l a g g e d a g g r e g a t e employment t o p o p u l a t i o n r a t i o . .A d o m i n a n t added w o r k e r e f f e c t was i n d i c a t e d f o r males aged 20 t o 24 and 25 t o 44 y e a r s , and f o r f e m a l e s o v e r 45 y e a r s . . The d i s c o u r a g e d worker e f f e c t p r e d o m i n a t e d f o r males o f 14 t o 19 and 65 and 30 over, and f o r females between 20 and 44. The net aggregate impact of unemployment on the labour f o r c e was r e l a t i v e l y s l i g h t . By c o n t r a s t , the c r o s s - s e c t i o n e s t i m a t e s , using as independent v a r i a b l e s the aggregate unemployment r a t e and a number of socio-demographic c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s i n 44 la b o u r market a r e a s , suggested a dominant discouraged worker e f f e c t i n almost every group, whether grouped by age, m a r i t a l s t a t u s or l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n . The responsiveness of females t o unemployment was g e n e r a l l y weaker than t h a t of males.. Among women, i t was s t r o n g e s t among s i n g l e females, s t r o n g e r f o r married women than f o r widows. When disaggregated by educa t i o n i t proved s t r o n g e s t among those with elementary education o n l y , n e g l i g i b l e f o r women with a u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t i o n . Using the c r o s s - s e c t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , Swidinsky c a l c u l a t e d d i s g u i s e d unemployment amounting to some 271,000 i n Census week 1961 r e s u l t i n g from the d i f f e r e n c e between the a c t u a l open unemployment r a t e of 7.5 percent and i t s assumed full-employment l e v e l of 4 percent. Kunin (1970) a l s o used aggregate data from the 1961 Census, a n a l y s i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f o r both sexes by census t r a c t , and f o c u s s i n g p a r t i c u l a r l y on d i f f e r e n c e s i n behaviour by r e s i d e n t s of high, medium and low income census t r a c t s . Summarising the r e s u l t s of the r e g r e s s i o n s f o r females, Kunin found, as expected, t h a t the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e was i n v e r s e l y a s s o c i a t e d with the p r o p o r t i o n married, with the average number ox c h i l d r e n , and with male earnings. The l a t t e r v a r i a b l e was not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n low income t r a c t s , s u g g e s t i n g , as did the pre v i o u s works, the e x i s t e n c e of some t h r e s h o l d e f f e c t 31 i n the impact of income on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The expected p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between female earnings and p a r t i c i p a t i o n was confirmed, the r e l a t i o n s h i p proving s t r o n g e s t i n the middle income group. The author i n t e r p r e t s t h i s as suggesting t h a t lower income women w i l l , through n e c e s s i t y , tend to work at whatever wage p r e v a i l s , while upper income women w i l l be more i n f l u e n c e d by non-pecuniary f a c t o r s . . Regressing female p a r t i c i p a t i o n on the t o t a l unemployment r a t e n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s were obtained throughout suggesting a dominant discouraged worker e f f e c t ; however, evidence of added worker behaviour behaviour was i n d i c a t e d i n the s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between the p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n medium and upper income t r a c t s and the male unemployment r a t e . For a l l income groups, p a r t i c i p a t i o n was lower i n t r a c t s where a high p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n were of French o r i g i n , or were of n e i t h e r E n g l i s h nor French o r i g i n . The same e f f e c t was found when the p r o p o r t i o n of immigrants was used, c o n t r a d i c t i n g the f i n d i n g s of Skoulos who found p a r t i c i p a t i o n higher among immigrants. A l a t e r study by Kuch and S h a r i r (1978) , using monthly Labour Force Survey data, a l s o provided support f o r the discouraged worker h y p o t h e s i s . The authors r e g r e s s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f o r age-sex groups on v a r i a b l e s r e f l e c t i n g , f i r s t l y , t h a t group's own employment r a t e and secondly, the r a t i o of employment to p o p u l a t i o n i n a l l other groups. A p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t r e p r e s e n t i n g the discouraged worker e f f e c t was expected f o r the f i r s t v a r i a b l e , a ne g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t r e f l e c t i n g the added worker e f f e c t f o r the second. The expected 32 r e s u l t s were obtained f o r a l l groups. However, f o r males between 25 and 44 n e i t h e r e f f e c t was s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , while f o r younger and o l d e r men only the discouraged worker e f f e c t s were s i g n i f i c a n t . For women, both e f f e c t s were s i g n i f i c a n t i n a l l age groups, with the discouraged worker e f f e c t predominating. Women's responsiveness to the unemployment r a t e was lowest i n the 20 to 24 age group, which the authors suggested i n d i c a t e d t h a t such women should be thought of as p a r t of the primary workforce r a t h e r than as secondary workers. The s t r e n g t h of the added worker e f f e c t appeared to d e c l i n e with age.. E s t i m a t i n g the net c y c l i c a l e f f e c t s , a discouraged worker e f f e c t was found f o r a l l males except teenagers, and f o r females 25 to 44 and 65 p l u s , the net response f o r other groups being i n d e t e r m i n a t e . , The work by Swan (1974), as the only one of the 'economic' s t u d i e s t o d e a l e x p l i c i t l y with r e g i o n a l f a c t o r s , i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t . . Swan t e s t e d and s t r i k i n g l y r e j e c t e d the hypothesis t h a t i n the regions where unemployment f a l l s l e a s t i n r e c e s s i o n s (Ontario and the P r a i r i e provinces) the discouraged worker e f f e c t was o p e r a t i n g more s t r o n g l y , s u b s t i t u t i n g d i s g u i s e d f o r open unemployment. Q u a r t e r l y data from the Labour Force Survey were used, c o v e r i n g the p e r i o d from 1953 t o 1971. In each r e g i o n , male p a r t i c i p a t i o n was r e g r e s s e d on the unemployment r a t e i n a neighbouring r e g i o n , while male unemployment was the independent v a r i a b l e i n the female r e g r e s s i o n s . These adjustments were made to reduce the s t s t i s t i c a l b i a s i n t r o d u c e d by common measurement e r r o r i n dependent and independent v a r i a b l e s . Other v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d 33 were wages and s a l a r i e s p e r employed p e r s o n , r e g i o n a l b i r t h and m a r r i a g e r a t e s and s e a s o n a l and t r e n d v a r i a b l e s . . I n O n t a r i o and Quebec, s i g n i f i c a n t a d d i t i o n a l w o r k e r e f f e c t s were i n d i c a t e d , w h i l e i n t h e P r a i r i e s and t h e A t l a n t i c r e g i o n , t h e r e g r e s s i o n f o r men showed an a d d i t i o n a l w o r k e r e f f e c t b u t no n e t e f f e c t was a p p a r e n t f o r women. In B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , unemployment a p p e a r e d t o e x e r t no e f f e c t on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Swan t h e n c a l c u l a t e d t h e e x t e n t t o which unemployment would r i s e i n e a c h r e g i o n f o l l o w i n g a f a l l o f 1 p e r c e n t i n employment, with and w i t h o u t a d d i t i o n a l w orker e f f e c t s . I n O n t a r i o , he e s t i m a t e d t h e i n c r e a s e i n measured unemployment t o be some 50 p e r c e n t g r e a t e r t h a n i t would be w i t h o u t t h e a d d i t i o n a l worker e f f e c t . I n t h e A t l a n t i c s , t h e i n c r e a s e was a b o u t 20 p e r c e n t and i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , t h e r e was no d i f f e r e n c e . Swan commented t h a t , i n t h e A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s and B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a Not o n l y a r e more p e o p l e o ut o f work t h a n i n t h e r e s t o f C a n a d a , i t i s a l s o t h e c a s e t h a t more o f t h o s e who a r e l o o k i n g f o r work a c u a l l y need i t , i n t h a t more o f them w i l l a c t u a l l y t a k e a j o b when employment o p p o r t i e s i m p r o v e , (p. 428.) And he c o n c l u d e d t h a t . Any a d j u s t m e n t t o measured unemployment r a t e s t o a l l o w f o r t h e r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f l a b o u r s u p p l y t o demand would r e v e a l e ven g r e a t e r d i f f e r e n c e s a c r o s s r e g i o n s i n s e n s i t i v i t y t o r e c e s s i o n t h a n were p r e v i o u s l y t h o u g h t t o o b t a i n , (p..432.) To summarise, t h e r e i s a c o n s i d e r a b l e d e g r e e o f c o n f l i c t r e g a r d i n g t h e i n f l u e n c e of unemployment on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . L o o k i n g o n l y a t t h a t p a r t o f t h e e v i d e n c e r e l a t i n g t o women, t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s t u d i e s by Swan and O f f i c e r and A n d e r s o n , and, f o r o l d e r women, t h a t o f P r o u l x and t h e t i m e s e r i e s work o f 34 Swidinsky, would suggest a dominant added worker response. . This conclusion i s supported by some of the more general studies which were discussed f i r s t . On the other hand, a net discouraged worker e f f e c t i s i n general indicated by Swidinsky's cross-section work and by the studies of Gunderson, Kunin and Kuch and Sharir. I t i s usual to interpret time series studies as r e f l e c t i n g response to short run changes, and cross-section changes as r e f l e c t i n g response to long run or s t r u c t u r a l differences. .It i s to some extent possible to reconcile the evidence by suggesting an added worker response to short run changes i n the l e v e l of unemployment, while discouraged worker behaviour predominates as a response to long run unemployment. This inte r p r e t a t i o n i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y and i n t u i t i v e l y reasonable; however, i t f a i l s to account f o r a l l the c o n f l i c t s , i n p a r t i c u l a r , the dominant discouraged worker e f f e c t found by Kuch and Sharir, as well as the added worker response found i n Skoulos* analysis of 1 9 6 1 Census data. In general, then, the conclusion to be drawn from t h i s review of the second group of studies must be that our understanding of the rela t i o n s h i p between labour supply and demand remains very limited. Section 5. Female Labour,Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n And I n d u s t r i a l Structure. The basic hypothesis of t h i s study i s that, just as there w i l l be a tendency for workers to become discouraged and leave the labour force when high unemployment reduces the chance of finding work—a tendency which may or may not be o f f s e t by the 35 entry i n t o the labour market of other i n d i v i d u a l s — s o t h e r e w i l l be a tendency f o r married women to remain o u t s i d e the la b o u r f o r c e where the demand f o r female labour i s low. In t h e o r e t i c a l terms, f o l l o w i n g the job search approach, we may say th a t the low p r o b a b i l i t y of f i n d i n g work and the high c o s t s of time and e f f o r t which would be expended i n seek i n g work would reduce the expected u t i l i t y of a job search t c a l e v e l short of the r e s e r v a t i o n wage—whatever the average market wage. In more i n t u i t i v e terms, where women know that l i t t l e work i s a v a i l a b l e , only the most determined w i l l seek work, the r e s t remaining o u t s i d e the labour f o r c e even where they would l i k e to work. The d i s t i n c t i o n between t h i s e f f e c t , c a l l e d here the i n d u s t r y mix e f f e c t , and the more c o n v e n t i o n a l discouraged worker e f f e c t i s that the r e s u l t i n g low p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s stem from a shortage of a s p e c i f i c .kind of job r a t h e r than from a low demand f o r labour i n g e n e r a l . The a s s e r t i o n t h a t an i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e may be more or l e s s f a v o u r a b l e to female employment, and consequently p a r t i c i p a t i o n , r e q u i r e s f u r t h e r e l a b o r a t i o n . The f i r s t column o f Table IV shows the p r o p o r t i o n of the Canadian labour f o r c e i n each i n d u s t r y group which, i n 1971, was female. T h i s p r o p o r t i o n i s sometimes known as the degree of sex-typing i n an i n d u s t r y . E x c l u d i n g the ' i n d u s t r y u n s p e c i f i e d ' category, an above average p r o p o r t i o n of the labour f o r c e was female i n three major i n d u s t r y groups: r e t a i l t r a d e ; f i n a n c e , insurance and r e a l e s t a t e ; and community, business and personal s e r v i c e s . In the f o r e s t r y , f i s h i n g and mining i n d u s t r i e s , l e s s than 10 percent of the labour f o r c e was female. The second and t h i r d columns show 36 TABLE IV Ma j p r , I n d u s t r y ..Groups, Showing P e r c e n t a q e _ O f Wgrkf g r c e _ F e m a l e .And P r o p o r t i o n s Of Female And Male L a b o u r F o r c e £ 1971 I n d u s t r y F e m a l e s as % o f i n d u s t r y l a b o u r f o r c e ; o f t o t a l f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e » o f t o t a l male l a b o u r f o r c e A g r i c u l t u r e F o r e s t r y F i s h i n g M i n i n g M a n u f a c t u r i n g C o n s t r u e t i o n T r a n s p o r t , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , u t i l i t i e s W h o l e s a l e t r a d e R e t a i l t r a d e F i n a n c e , i n s u r a n c e , r e a l e s t a t e Community, b u s i n e s s , p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e s P u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and d e f e n c e U n s p e c i f i e d 23.2 4.5 3.6 6.8 24.6 4.9 17.0 22.8 42.0 51.4 57.6 25.5 44.2 3.8 0. 1 0.3 13.7 0. 9 0.4 2.7 13. 1 6. 2 39.7 5.5 10.2 6. 5 1. 2 0. 4 2. 3 23. 0 9. 0 4. 8 9. 4 3. 1 15. 3 8. 4 6. 7 ALL INDUSTRIES 33.4 100. 0 100. 0 S o u r c e : C a l c u l a t e d f r o m S t a t i s t i c s Canada 1971 C e n s u s . Volume 3 P a r t 4 T a b l e 2. 37 the p r o p o r t i o n of the female and male labour f o r c e s r e s p e c t i v e l y i n each i n d u s t r y group. The former i s sometimes known as the degree of female c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n an industry..The three 'female i n t e n s i v e ' i n d u s t r i e s contained almost 60 percent of the female labour f o r c e , compared with l e s s than 30 percent of the male labour f o r c e . Primary i n d u s t r i e s and manufacturing contained 4. 2 and 13 percent of the female labour f o r c e , compared with 10.4 and 23.0 percent of males. A more d e t a i l e d breakdown shows the extent o f both sex-typing and female c o n c e n t r a t i o n to be g r e a t e r than t h a t r e v e a l e d by the aggregate f i g u r e s . For example, a breakdown of the community, bus i n e s s and p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e s s e c t o r shows t h a t i n the category ' h e a l t h and w e l f a r e s e r v i c e s ' the p r o p o r t i o n of females was 75.1 percent, i n ' p e r s o n a l , s e r v i c e s ' , 69.1 percent. These two groups alone accounted f o r 17.2 percent of the female labour f o r c e . Within manufacturing, the t e x t i l e and c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y , with a workforce almost 60 percent female, contained 3.5 percent of the female labour f o r c e as compared with 1.3 percent of the male labour f o r c e , A s i m i l a r p a t t e r n i s apparent when an o c c u p a t i o n a l r a t h e r than an i n d u s t r i a l breakdown i s examined. Table V, adapted from Gunderson (1976) shows the 25 major female-employing o c c u p a t i o n s , ranked i n descending order and showing a l s o the percentage of the t o t a l female labour f o r c e i n each group. Over 60 percent of females who were i n the labour f o r c e i n 1971 h e l d one of these occupations. In a t h i r d of these occupations, the p r o p o r t i o n of female workers i s over 50 percent; i n a l l but three i t exceeds 50 percent. There i s , then, strong evidence of a segregated l a b o u r 38 TABLE V L e a d i n g , Female O c c u p a t i o n s , . C a n a d a , 1971 O c c u p a t i o n F e m a l e s as P e r c e n t o f p e r c e n t o f f e m a l e l a b o u r o c c u p a t i o n F o r c e S e c r e t a r i e s / s t e n o g r a p h e r s 97.4 8. 1 S a l e s c l e r k s 66.0 5. 4 B o o k k e e p e r s / a c c o u n t s c l e r k s 67.6 4. 6 E l e m e n t a r y t e a c h e r s 82. 3 4. 1 W a i t r e s s e s 82.9 3. 6 T e l l e r s and C a s h i e r s 91.3 3. 5 Farm w o r k e r s 46. 2 3. 2 N u r s e s , g r a d u a t e 95.8 3. 1 T y p i s t s , c l e r k t y p i s t s 95.6 2. 9 G e n e r a l o f f i c e c l e r k s 62. 2 2. 7 Sewing machine o p e r a t o r s 90. 1 1.9 P e r s o n a l s e r v i c e n.e.c. 92.0 1. 9 J a n i t o r s / c l e a n e r s s 32. 4 1.9 N u r s i n g a i d s S o r d e r l i e s 74.4 1.8 S e c o n d a r y t e a c h e r s 44.5 1. 7 O t h e r c l e r i c a l n . e . c . 62.0 1. 5 R e c e p t i o n i s t s 92.6 1.4 S u p e r v i s o r s , s a l e s 16. 8 1. 4 C h e f s & c o o k s 50. 2 1. 3 P a c k a g i n g n . e . c . 56.3 1.3 B a r b e r s S h a i r d r e s s e r s 63. 2 1. 2 T e l e p h o n e o p e r a t o r s 95. 9 1.3 L i b r a r y & f i l e c l e r k s 82.2 0. 9 L a b o u r & e l e m e n t a l work 47.0 0. 8 B a b y s i t t e r s 96.6 0.7 t o t a l i n 25 l e a d i n g o c c u p a t i o n s 65.9 61.7 S o u r c e : G u n d e r s o n , 1 9 7 6 , p.114-115. (Taken from S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1971 C e n s u s ) . 39 m a r k e t , w i t h f e m a l e s d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y r e p r e s e n t e d i n a few i n d u s t r y and o c c u p a t i o n a l g r o u p s , which a r e , t o a l a r g e e x t e n t , f e m a l e d o m i n a t e d . I n g e n e r a l , t h e r e w i l l be more employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r women i n a r e a s where a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y i s d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s t h e s e i n d u s t r i e s o r o c c u p a t i o n s . C o n v e r s e l y , where t h e s e s e c t o r s a r e r e l a t i v e l y p o o r l y r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e economy o f a l o c a l l a b o u r m a r k e t , o r where much p r o d u c t i o n t a k e s p l a c e i n t h e p r i m a r y o r heavy m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s , f e m a l e employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l be r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d , we f o c u s h e r e on i n d u s t r i a l r a t h e r t h a n o c c u p a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e b e c a u s e t h e demand f o r l a b o u r i n s p e c i f i c o c c u p a t i o n s w i l l be l a r g e l y c o n t i n g e n t upon i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , even t h o u g h t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f f e m a l e s i n any i n d u s t r y w i l l i t s e l f be a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e o c c u p a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h a t i n d u s t r y i s o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s t h e t r a d i t i o n a l l y f e m a l e o c c u p a t i o n s . The e x i s t e n c e o f t h e i n d u s t r y mix e f f e c t has n o t , o f c o u r s e , been u n r e c o g n i z e d . . I n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . Oppenheimer (1970) i d e n t i f i e d t h e major c a u s e o f t h e i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n by women between 1940 and 1960 a s t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e i n c r e a s e d demand f o r l a b o u r i n ' f e m a l e 1 o c c u p a t i o n s . . C o n n e l l y ( 1 9 7 8 ) , q u o t e d i n S e c t i o n 3 o f t h i s c h a p t e r , v i e w s f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n as b e i n g p r i m a r i l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f c a p i t a l i s t p r o d u c e r s . . I n g e n e r a l , however, most e c o n o m i c a n a l y s e s o f t h e s u b j e c t have g i v e n somewhat c u r s o r y t r e a t m e n t t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . I t s i m p o r t a n c e i n t h e h i s t o r i c a l c o n t e x t i s u s u a l l y r e c o g n i s e d , and t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f ' f e m a l e ' i n d u s t r i e s i n u r b a n a r e a s i s o f t e n assumed t o c o n t r i b u t e t o 40 h i g h e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s t h e r e . But most c r o s s - s e c t i o n s t u d i e s have t r e a t e d i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , l i k e ' t a s t e s ' and ' c u l t u r e * as a k i n d o f r e s i d u a l f a c t o r t o p a r t i a l l y a c c o u n t f o r t h a t p o r t i o n o f o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n w hich c a n n o t be a t t r i b u t e d t o e c o n o m i c o r d e m o g r a p h i c f a c t o r s . A few s t u d i e s h a v e a d d r e s s e d t h e i n d u s t r y mix e f f e c t d i r e c t l y . I n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Bowen and F i n e g a n (1969) u n d e r t o o k a m a j o r c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l s t u d y o f l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n S t a n d a r d M e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l A r e a s (SMSA's). An i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e r e f l e c t i n g t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e o f e a c h SMSA was o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s f e m a l e e m p l o y m e n t 2 was i n c l u d e d i n r e g r e s s i o n s f o r women by age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s . A l s o i n c l u d e d were o t h e r l a b o u r m arket v a r i a b l e s , i n c l u d i n g t h e unemployment r a t e and f e m a l e e a r n i n g s , and a number o f c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s s u c h as age and a v e r a g e e d u c a t i o n . . The i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e p r o v e d s t r o n g l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r m a r r i e d women e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e u n d e r 24 and o v e r 45, and f o r widowed and s e p a r a t e d women, but not f o r s i n g l e o r d i v o r c e d women. K i n g ( 1 9 7 8 ) e l a b o r a t e d on Bowen and F i n e g a n ' s s t u d y , u s i n g 1970 C e n s u s d a t a . K i n g examined t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n was p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e v a r i a b i l i t y o f h o u r s o f work w i t h i n a l a b o u r market, t h e r a t i o n a l e b e i n g t h a t m arket work and d o m e s t i c r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s may be more e a s i l y c o m b i n e d where f l e x i b l e w o r k i n g h o u r s and w i d e s p r e a d o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r p a r t - t i m e work e x i s t . The mean and v a r i a n c e o f t h e p r e d i c t e d d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u r s i n each SMSA were c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s t h i s i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e was t h e same a s i s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r . . 2 The f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h a t u s e d h e r e , which 41 of that c i t y ' s i n t e r - i n d u s t r y employment d i s t r i b u t i o n and of the n a t i o n a l hours of work by i n d u s t r y . The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the d i s t r i b u t i o n of hours was indeed s i g n i f i c a n t f o r women with p r e - s c h o o l c h i l d r e n , whether as a s u b s t i t u t e f o r or i n a d d i t i o n to Bowen and Finegan's i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e . For other groups, however, the hours d i s t r i b u t i o n v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t i n n e i t h e r case, and the author concluded t h a t ...The i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e owes i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e to f a c t o r s other than the v a r i a b i l i t y i n hours c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r i e s . . (p. 406.) In Canada, two of the s t u d i e s d i s c u s s e d i n the p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n which used aggregate 1961 Census data i n c l u d e d v a r i a b l e s r e f l e c t i n g the p r o p o r t i o n of an area's labour f o r c e i n c e r t a i n i n d u s t r y groups to r e f l e c t the i n d u s t r y mix e f f e c t on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Swidinsky(1969) used three v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g r e s p e c t i v e l y the pro p o r t i o n i n manufacturing, trade and s e r v i c e s . For most age groups, the e f f e c t of each v a r i a b l e was p o s i t i v e , but not s i g n i f i c a n t , probably because these groups were too h i g h l y aggregated t o r e f l e c t employment c o n d i t i o n s adequately. . Skoulos (1974) represented i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e by the p r o p o r t i o n of the labour f o r c e i n managerial and p r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l , c l e r i c a l and s a l e s occupations. T h i s v a r i a b l e was found to be s i g n i f i c a n t f o r most age groups and p a r t i c u l a r l y so f o r the under 25 and 55 to 64 age groups.. I t s i n f l u e n c e was a l s o s t r onger i n low income areas than i n middle or high income areas. Nakamura e t a l (1979) examined labou r supply behaviour using data on i n d i v i d u a l s from the 1971 Census P u b l i c Use Sample 42 Tapes. This sample provides geographic i n f o r m a t i o n by p r o v i n c e and u r b a n / r u r a l r e s i d e n c e only, consequently the 'oppo r t u n i t y f o r j o b s ' index used i n t h i s study r e l a t e d t o r e g i o n a l r a t h e r than l o c a l labour markets.. The index was c o n s t r u c t e d by c a l c u l a t i n g the r a t i o between the expected number of jobs f o r women and the t o t a l number of women 15 years and o l d e r i n each province and place of r e s i d e n c e . The expected number of jobs f o r women was d e r i v e d from the p r o p o r t i o n of women i n each occupation group i n Canada as a whole, and the breakdown of the labour f o r c e by occupation i n each province and place o f r e s i d e n c e . T h i s v a r i a b l e was then i n c l u d e d with personal and f a m i l y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and the p r o v i n c i a l unemployment a n a l y s i s i n a p r o b i t a n a l y s i s of married female participation..Somewhat s u r p r i s i n g l y i n view of the f a c t t h a t p r o v i n c i a l and not l o c a l labour market c o n d i t i o n s were r e f l e c t e d , the v a r i a b l e was found to be q u i t e s t r o n g l y s i g n i f i c a n t . S e c t i o n 1 suggested, i n general terms, why the labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e should be a matter of concern t o planners and p o l i c y makers. Having o u t l i n e d the major determinants of p a r t i c i p a t i o n at the i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l , i n c l u d i n g the i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , some more s p e c i f i c reasons may now be given. A h i g h female p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i s i n no sense n e c e s s a r i l y p r e f e r a b l e to a lower one. Low p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i n an area may be a r e f l e c t i o n of demographic f a c t o r s , such as above average f e r t i l i t y or a r e l a t i v e l y high p r o p o r t i o n of the female p o p u l a t i o n i n age groups where p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s low because o f reti r e m e n t or s c h o o l attendance. They may r e f l e c t the prevalence 43 of t r a d i t i o n a l v a l u e s p l a c i n g a heavy emphasis on domestic and c h i l d b e a r i n g r o l e s . They may i n d i c a t e a r e l a t i v e l y prosperous s o c i e t y i n which those f a m i l i e s who can a f f o r d t o l i v e on one income can a f f o r d to do so. . On the other hand, p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s may be depressed by f a c t o r s o u t s i d e the c o n t r o l of the i n d i v i d u a l , so t h a t women who would l i k e to work are unable to do so. One such f a c t o r i s a shortage of employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n aggregate, r e f l e c t e d by the d i s c o u r a g e d worker phenomenon; another i s the shortage of s p e c i f i c employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s we have termed the i n d u s t r y mix e f f e c t . S i m i l a r l y , p a r t i c i p a t i o n may be depressed by a l a c k of necessary s k i l l s , by the la c k of adeguate daycare arrangements, by poor p h y s i c a l a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o employment, and so on. Low female p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s may t h e r e f o r e r e p r e s e n t the e x i s t e n c e of s o c i a l and economic problems on s e v e r a l l e v e l s . At the i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l , an absence o f employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s may r e p r e s e n t not only l o s s of earn i n g s but a l s o of the chances f o r s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n and s e l f - r e a l i z a t i o n which may be a s s o c i a t e d with work o u t s i d e the home. At the f a m i l y l e v e l , low female p a r t i c i p a t i o n a r i s i n g from • i n v o l u n t a r y ' causes may i n d i c a t e an i n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e of poverty as well as g r e a t e r i n e q u a l i t i e s of income d i s t r i b u t i o n . Since the p a r t i c i p a t i o n of married women d e c l i n e s with i n c r e a s e s i n the husband's income, a higher p r o p o r t i o n of low income f a m i l i e s have more than one wageearner, so that the d i s t r i b u t i o n of f a m i l y incomes i n gen e r a l i n d i c a t e s l e s s i n e q u a l i t y than does the d i s t r i b u t i o n f o r i n d i v i d u a l s . Evidence suggests t h a t the maj o r i t y o f wives who work do so l a r g e l y out of f i n a n c i a l need, 44 while many low income f a m i l i e s may be beyond the poverty l i n e only because of the wife's income. (Connelly,1976; Gunderson, 1976; Armstrong and Armstrong, 1976.) To the r e g i o n a l economy, a low female p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e may i n d i c a t e an u n d e r u t i l i s a t i o n of resources and, consequently, an o v e r a l l standard of l i v i n g f a l l i n g short of i t s p o t e n t i a l . The l o s s of purchasing power r e s u l t i n g from i n v o l u n t a r y n o n p a r t i c i p a t i o n may i n i t s e l f c o n t r i b u t e t o a shortage of aggregate demand, f u r t h e r i n h i b i t i n g the development of employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e working women are more l i k e l y to c r e a t e a demand f o r the s e r v i c e s of other women. The problem may thus present c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a ' v i c i o u s c i r c l e ' . In g e n e r a l , then, low female p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from an unfavourable i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e may be thought of as r e p r e s e n t i n g a problem of d i s g u i s e d unemployment, with c o s t s analogous to those of open unemployment. . S e c t i o n 6. Study O b j e c t i v e s . The d i r e c t aims of the resear c h d e s c r i b e d i n the f o l l o w i n g chapter are as f o l l o w s : (1) To develop a measure of the degree t o which the i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e of l o c a l labour markets i s f a v o u r a b l e towards the employment of women; (2) To measure and compare the i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e on the labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women i n d i f f e r e n t age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s groups; (3) To i n v e s t i g a t e whether and to what extent t h i s i n f l u e n c e v a r i e s between.regions; 45 (4) To i n v e s t i g a t e whether d i f f e r e n c e s i n i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e can account f o r a p o r t i o n of the p r e v i o u s l y unexplained v a r i a t i o n i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n between re g i o n s . These aims are expressed as s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h hypotheses i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a pter. In i n t e r p r e t i n g the r e s u l t s , the aim i s to c o n s i d e r how i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , through i t s i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , a f f e c t s s o c i a l and economic welfare and, t h e r e f o r e , the p o l i c y measures which might be adopted to d e a l with the e f f e c t s of an adverse i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . CHAPTER 2 Methodology And Data_DescriptiQn S e c t i o n J . _ I n t r g d u c t i p n . T h i s c hapter p r o v i d e s a d e s c r i p t i o n of the b a s i c model adopted, the data source and the o p e r a t i o n a l dependent and independent v a r i a b l e s . The next s e c t i o n o u t l i n e s the g e n e r a l model, together with the s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h hypotheses t o be t e s t e d . . S e c t i o n 3 d i s c u s s e s the nature of the data and the l e v e l of aggregation used f o r the a n a l y s i s . The f i n a l s e c t i o n d e f i n e s the p r o x i e s used to repr e s e n t the i n f l u e n c e s allowed f o r i n the g e n e r a l model. Section,2. The Model, The purpose of the study was t o examine the i n f l u e n c e o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e on female labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n urban areas, while c o n t r o l l i n g t o the extent p o s s i b l e f o r i n t e r -urban d i f f e r e n c e s i n other f a c t o r s known or thought t o i n f l u e n c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The technigue used was stepwise m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , with the dependent v a r i a b l e the l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e of the i ' t h group of women, groups being d e f i n e d by age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s . The f o l l o w i n g b a s i c model was used: LFP =b +b X1i + b X2i +b C +b R *b IM + u i 0 1 2 3 4 5 where; X i i r e p r e s e n t s those p e r s o n a l , s o c i a l and demographic f a c t o r s f o r the i ' t h group which are known to i n f l u e n c e 47 women's w i l l i n g n e s s t o p a r t i c i p a t e ; X 2 i r e p r e s e n t s t h o s e l a b o u r market f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g t h e r e w a r d s t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n f o r t h e i ' t h g r o u p ; C,R r e p r e s e n t t h e ' i n d e p e n d e n t ' i n f l u e n c e s of r e s i d e n c e f a c t o r s , d e f i n e d a s c i t y s i z e and r e g i o n ; IM r e p r e s e n t s t h e i n f l u e n c e o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e ; u i s a s t a t i s t i c a l d i s t u r b a n c e t e r m . I n t h e f i r s t s t e p , l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s f o r eac h g r o u p were r e g r e s s e d on p r o x i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g f a c t o r s X1 t h r o u g h R, d i s c u s s e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . I n t h e s e c o n d s t e p , t h e v a r i a b l e r e f l e c t i n g i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e was added t o t h e r e g r e s s i o n . Changes i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e model and i n t h e b c o e f f i c i e n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t o f R, were examined, t h e s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s e s b e i n g , (1) A p o s i t i v e , s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s and t h e v a r i a b l e IM; (2) I n c l u s i o n o f t h e IM v a r i a b l e w i l l l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e model and a r e d u c t i o n i n th e a p p a r e n t l y i n d e p e n d e n t i n f l u e n c e o f r e g i o n on l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . S e p a r a t e r e g r e s s i o n s were p e r f o r m e d f o r t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o f a l l women between t h e ages o f 15 and 64, and f o r m a r r i e d ( i n c l u d i n g s e p a r a t e d ) , s i n g l e (never m a r r i e d ) , and • o t h e r ' (widowed and d i v o r c e d ) women i n t h e same age g r o u p . I n t h e c a s e o f m a r r i e d women, t h e sample was f u r t h e r d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e age g r o u p s : 15 t o 24, 25 t o 44 and 45 t o 64. T h i s was done t o a l l o w f o r c h a n g i n g i n f l u e n c e s o v e r t h e * l i f e c y c l e ' , as w e l l as f o r a t t i t u d i n a l d i f f e r e n c e s between women i n d i f f e r e n t age 48 groups. U n f o r t u n a t e l y the same breakdown was not p o s s i b l e i n the case of s i n g l e and other women. In many of the s m a l l e r a r e a s , the number of such women i n any age group was too small f o r the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e t o be a meaningful f i g u r e , while e x c l u d i n g such areas would have r e s u l t e d i n too small a sample s i z e . Some comment on the assumptions u n d e r l y i n g the model should be made. In g e n e r a l , the use of m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s t h a t the f o l l o w i n g assumptions be adopted; (1) The d i s t u r b a n c e terms u are independently d i s t r i b u t e d with a mean of 0 and a constant v a r i a n c e ; (2) The v a r i a b l e s X1....Xn are f i x e d (non-random) numbers, l i n e a r l y r e l a t e d to the dependent v a r i a b l e s ; no exact l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between any of the X v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r e f f e c t s are a d d i t i v e . The e x t e n t to which the data j u s t i f y these assumptions i s considered i n the f o l l o w i n g chapter. S e c t i o n _ 3. . Data Source;. Data were obtained from the User Summary Tapes made a v a i l a b l e by S t a t i s t i c s Canada from the 1971 Census. Although more r e c e n t data would have been p r e f e r a b l e i n view of c o n t i n u i n g i n c r e a s e s i n female p a r t i c i p a t i o n , s u c c e s s i v e censuses provide the onl y source of much of the s o c i a l and demographic i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d , while the d e c e n n i a l census g i v e s the onl y d e t a i l e d and comprehensive breakdown of the labour f o r c e by i n d u s t r y and sex f o r s u b - p r o v i n c i a l areas. Use of aggregate data ( p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates) as opposed t o the a n a l y s i s of i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s — a technique i n many ways p r e f e r a b l e — w a s d i c t a t e d by the f a c t t h a t the P u b l i c 49 TABLE_VI D i s t r i b u t i o n Of CMAs &nd_Census A g g l o m e r a t i o n s P r a i r i e s A t l a n t i c O n t a r i o Quebec B.C.. T o t a l CMA's 5 3 9 i 3 3 22 Census A g g l o m e r a t i o n s 50,000- - 2 7 3 - 12 100,000 25,000- 1 3 3 13 6 26 50,000 10,000- 2 8 10 6 5 31 25,000 5,000- 1 3 2 3 1 10 10,000 T o t a l 9 19 31 28 15 101 ? I n c l u d i n g O t t a w a - H u l l . 50 Use Sample Tapes c o n t a i n i n g d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on i n d i v i d u a l C ensus r e s p o n d e n t s do not c o n t a i n p r e c i s e g e o g r a p h i c i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . An a c c u r a t e r e f l e c t i o n o f l a b o u r m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s would t h e r e f o r e be i m p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n . The l e v e l o f a g g r e g a t i o n c h o s e n f o r t h e a n a l y s i s was t h a t o f t h e C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a and C e n s u s A g g l o m e r a t i o n . . C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s (CMA's), o f which t h e r e a r e 22, a r e d e f i n e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada as t h e main l a b o u r market a r e a o f a c o n t i n u o u s b u i l t - u p a r e a h a v i n g 100,000 o r more p o p u l a t i o n . Known by t h e name o f t h e l a r g e s t c i t y , t h e y c o n t a i n whole m u n i c i p a l i t i e s o r c e n s u s s u b d i v i s i o n s . The main l a b o u r market a r e a , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a commuting f i e l d , i n c l u d e s t h o s e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s l y i n g w i t h i n t h e c o n t i n u o u s b u i l t - u p a r e a o r , s u b j e c t t o c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s , w i t h i n a 20 m i l e r a d i u s o f t h e l i m i t s o f t h i s a r e a . The C e n s u s A g g l o m e r a t i o n i s d e f i n e d a s , A s t a t i s t i c a l a r e a h a v i n g an u r b a n c o r e o f o v e r 1,000 p o p u l a t i o n w i t h an a d j a c e n t b u i l t - u p a r e a o f a t l e a s t 1,000 p o p u l a t i o n and a minimum d e n s i t y o f 1,000 p e r s o n s p e r s q u a r e m i l e . The l a r g e s t u r b a n a r e a and i t s a d j a c e n t u r b a n c o r e must be i n two d i f f e r e n t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and c o n s t i t u t e a c o n t i n u o u s b u i l t - u p a r e a w i t h no s e p a r a t i o n g r e a t e r t h a n one m i l e . The p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e u r b a n i z e d c o r e must be a t l e a s t 2,000. A r e a s w i t h an u r b a n i z e d c o r e o f 100,000 o r more a r e C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s . The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f CMA's and C e n s u s A g g l o m e r a t i o n s i s shown i n T a b l e V I . 51 S e c t i o n 4. D e s c r i p t i o n Of V a r i a b l e s . ( i ) D e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s (PRWU65, PRSFU65, PROFU65, PRYGMF, PRMF065, PRMAMF, EROLMF) The d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s were c a l c u l a t e d as t h e r a t i o o f l a b o u r f o r c e members t o t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n a g i v e n g r o u p o f women. The e x a c t d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e used i n s u c c e s s i v e c e n s u s e s has v a r i e d somewhat; i n 1971, l a b o u r f o r c e members were d e f i n e d as N o n - i n m a t e s , 15 y e a r s and o v e r , who, i n t h e week p r i o r t o e n u m e r a t i o n , worked f o r pay o r p r o f i t , h e l p e d w i t h o u t pay i n a f a m i l y b u s i n e s s o r f a r m , l o o k e d f o r work, were on t e m p o r a r y l a y - o f f , or had j o b s from w h i c h t h e y were t e m p o r a r i l y a b s e n t b e c a u s e o f i l l n e s s , v a c a t i o n , s t r i k e , e t c . P e r s o n s d o i n g housework i n t h e i r own home o r v o l u n t e e r work o n l y , a r e e x c l u d e d from t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . A l s o e x c l u d e d a r e f e m a l e f a r m w o r k e r s who i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y worked w i t h o u t pay i n a f a m i l y f a r m o r b u s i n e s s f o r l e s s t h a n 20 h o u r s . PRWU65, PRSF065, PROFU65, PRMFU65 r e f e r r e s p e c t i v e l y t o t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o f a l l women, s i n g l e women, o t h e r and m a r r i e d women between t h e ages o f 15 and 64.. PRYGMF, PRMAMF, PROLMF r e f e r r e s p e c t i v e l y t o t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o f m a r r i e d women aged 15 t o 24, 25 t o 44 and 45 t o 64. 4 ( i i ) ' P e r s o n a l ' _ f a c t o r s 4 ( i i ) a . E d u c a t i o n (XXFED12; xxFUNI) A p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between e d u c a t i o n and p a r t i c i p a t i o n was e x p e c t e d , r e f l e c t i n g b o t h h i g h e r p o t e n t i a l e a r n i n g s and a g r e a t e r ' t a s t e ' f o r market work on t h e p a r t of more h i g h l y e d u c a t e d i n d i v i d u a l s . Two s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s were used t o r e f l e c t e d u c a t i o n l e v e l s i n u r b a n a r e a s : ALLFED12, YGFED12, MAFED12, OLFED 12 measure t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f e a c h age group h a v i n g an e d u c a t i o n a b o v e G r a d e 11. ALLFUNI, YGFUNI, MAFONI, OLFONI measure t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f a l l 52 women and of each age group having at least some university education. 3 4 ( i i ) b . Ethnic^ Composition (PCTOTH) This variable was included with no a p r i o r i expectations regarding the dir e c t i o n of influence, to allow for the e f f e c t s of c u l t u r a l differences. PCTOTH measures the percentage of working age population for whom the 'language most often spoken at home' was neither English nor French. I t was o r i g i n a l l y intended to include also the percentage of the population which was French speaking, however, the degree of c o l l i n e a r i t y between this variable and the dummy variable representing Quebec (see section 4(iv)a.) was such as to preclude i t s use. 4 ( i i ) c . Children ( PCTCHDN,PCTNOCH, FEETxx) A negative rel a t i o n s h i p was expected between the presence of children and the parti c i p a t i o n of married and divorced and widowed females. The influence of young children was expected to be the strongest, however, to the extent that r a i s i n g children involves interruptions to a woman's working experience and consequently to the wage she can expect to earn, an independent negative rel a t i o n s h i p between children ever born and pa r t i c i p a t i o n i s expected, PCTCHDN measures the percentage of a l l f a m i l i e s i n which there i s at least one c h i l d under the age of 6 years. PCTNOCH measures the proportion of a l l families i n 3 Ideally, age and marital status s p e c i f i c measures of education should be used, since women i n one marital status group may have a systematic tendency to have a higher or lower l e v e l of education from women i n the same age group but with d i f f e r e n t marital status. However, such measures were not available. 53 which t h e r e a r e no c h i l d r e n under t h e age o f 19 y e a r s . FERTALL, FERTYG, FERTMA, FERTOL measure t h e number o f c h i l d r e n e v e r b o r n p e r t h o u s a n d women e v e r m a r r i e d a ged r e s p e c t i v e l y 15 t o 64, 15 t o 24, 25 t o 44 and 45 t o 64. 4 ( i i i ) L a b o u r - m a r k e t f a c t o r s 4 ( i i i ) a. F e m a l e wages (AVFWAG) A p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between f e m a l e wages and f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n was e x p e c t e d . No measure o f wage r a t e s as s u c h was a v a i l a b l e , o n l y e a r n i n g s d a t a b e i n g p r o v i d e d . As a r o u g h p r o x y , t o m i n i m i s e t h e i n f l u e n c e o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n h o u r s and weeks worked, t h e a v e r a g e e a r n i n g s o f women who worked f u l l - t i m e f o r between 40 and 52 weeks d u r i n g t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r was used. 4 ( i i i ) b. M a l e _ i n c o m e (AVEMMY) A n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between male income and f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n was e x p e c t e d f o r m a r r i e d women and, t e n t a t i v e l y , f o r o t h e r women. AVEMMY measures t h e a v e r a g e income (from a l l s o u r c e s ) o f m a r r i e d men d u r i n g t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r . 4 ( i i i ) c. .Unemployment ( FUR, MUR, PCMFT70) T h r e e v a r i a b l e s were used t o r e p r e s e n t t h e i n f l u e n c e o f unemployment on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . FUR m e asures t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e unemployed d u r i n g e n u m e r a t i o n week; a n e g a t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n , r e p r e s e n t i n g d i s c o u r a g e d w orker b e h a v i o u r , was e x p e c t e d . The c o e f f i c i e n t o f MUR, t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e male l a b o u r f o r c e unemployed, may r e f l e c t b o t h added and d i s c o u r a g e d worker e f f e c t s ; t h e r e were t h e r e f o r e no f i r m e x p e c t a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g i t s s i g n . PCMFT70 measures t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e male e x p e r i e n c e d l a b o u r f o r c e which worked between 40 and 52 weeks i n 1970. T h i s 54 v a r i a b l e was i n t e n d e d as an i n d i c a t o r o f l o n g - t e r m l a b o u r m arket c o n d i t i o n s , r e f l e c t i n g t h e e x t e n t o f p e r s i s t e n t and s e a s o n a l unemployment. Male r a t h e r t h a n f e m a l e unemployment was used t o m i n i m i s e t h e e x t e n t t o which p e r i o d s s p e n t v o l u n t a r i l y o u t s i d e t h e l a b o u r market were r e f l e c t e d . A g a i n , t h e d i r e c t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e c o u l d be p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t a g e n e r a l l y p oor o r h i g h l y s e a s o n a l l a b o u r market d e t e r s f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , a p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n r e f l e c t i n g d i s c o u r a g e d worker b e h a v i o u r would be e x p e c t e d . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t i n t e r r u p t i o n s i n male employment i n d u c e women t o e n t e r t h e l a b o u r m a r k e t , a n e g a t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n i n d i c a t i v e o f added w o r k e r b e h a v i o u r was e x p e c t e d . However, s i n c e t h e l a t t e r e f f e c t w i l l a l r e a d y be r e f l e c t e d by t h e v a r i a b l e AVEMMY, c o v e r i n g t h e same p e r i o d , PCTMFT70 i s l i J c e l y t o be more s e n s i t i v e t o d i s c o u r a g e d worker e f f e c t s . 4 ( i i i ) d. . S c h o o l i n g ( PCSCHFT ) S i n c e f o r a l a r g e number o f young women t h e major a l t e r n a t i v e t o market work i s c o n t i n u e d e d u c a t i o n , i t was t h o u g h t n e c e s s a r y t o c o n t r o l f o r t h i s f a c t o r , even t h o u g h t h e d e c i s i o n t o s t a y i n s c h o o l may i t s e l f be i n f l u e n c e d by l a b o u r market f a c t o r s . A n e g a t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n i s e x p e c t e d between p a r t i c i p a t i o n and PCSCHFT , which measures t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f a l l women aged 15 and o v e r r e c e i v i n g f u l l - t i m e e d u c a t i o n . . 4. ( i v ) R e s i d e n c e f a c t o r s 4 i l i y ) L a i _ R e g i o n { DATL, DQUE, DPR A, DEC) To a c c o u n t f o r u n e x p l a i n e d r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n t a s t e s , c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s and o t h e r i n f l u e n c e s n o t e x p l i c i t l y a l l o w e d f o r , dummy v a r i a b l e s were i n c l u d e d . . T h u s , DATL i s s e t e q u a l t o 1 f o r a r e a s i n t h e A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s , t o 0 o t h e r w i s e . The i n f l u e n c e i s ' assumed t o be i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s e x p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e d , and s o t h e c o e f f i c i e n t i s i n t e r p r e t e d as t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e i n t e r c e p t o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n l i n e r e l a t i v e t o t h e b a s e c a s e — i n t h i s i n s t a n c e , O n t a r i o . P r i o r work would s u g g e s t , a t l e a s t f o r m a r r i e d women, a n e g a t i v e s i g n f o r t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f DATL, DQUE and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , DBC. 4 ( i v ) b. C i t y s i z e (DCMA, D2550, D1025, D510 S i m i l a r l y , f o u r dummy v a r i a b l e s were u s e d t o r e f l e c t t h e • i n d e p e n d e n t ' i n f l u e n c e o f c i t y s i z e , t h e r e f e r e n c e c a s e b e i n g a c e n s u s a g g l o m e r a t i o n w i t h 50,000 t o 100,000 p o p u l a t i o n . 4 (v) I n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e ( INDMIX ) A p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t h e e x t e n t t o which an a r e a ' s i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e i s o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s t h e employment of f e m a l e s was e x p e c t e d . S i n c e t h e a c t u a l p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l employment ( o r l a b o u r f o r c e ) which i s f i l l e d by women w i l l be i n f l u e n c e d by a v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s b e s i d e s i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , i n c l u d i n g , o f c o u r s e , t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i t s e l f , an i n d e p e n d e n t measure was r e g u i r e d . The measure used was t h a t d e v e l o p e d by Bowen and F i n e g a n ( 1 9 6 9 ) . . C a n ada's t o t a l e x p e r i e n c e d l a b o u r f o r c e was d i v i d e d i n t o 26 i n d u s t r y g r o u p s , and t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e w h i c h was f e m a l e i n e a c h i n d u s t r y g r o u p was c a l c u l a t e d . F o r each c i t y , t h e a c t u a l (male p l u s f e male) l a b o u r f o r c e i n e a c h i n d u s t r y g r o u p was m u l t i p l i e d by t h i s r a t i o , and summed a c r o s s i n d u s t r y g r o u p s . T h i s t o t a l was d i v i d e d by t h e a r e a ' s t o t a l e x p e r i e n c e d l a b o u r f o r c e , and e x p r e s s e d a s a p e r c e n t a g e . T h i s i n d e x v a l u e may be t h o u g h t o f as t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f f e m a l e s i n t h e t o t a l l a b o u r 56 f o r c e of an area expected on the b a s i s of that area's i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . CHAPTER 3 57 Results Sectign_JL _ I n t r o d u c t i o n . . This s e c t i o n presents the r e s u l t s of the s e r i e s of r e g r e s s i o n s which were c a r r i e d out as d e s c r i b e d i n the previous chapter. S e c t i o n 2 d i s c u s s e s the r e s u l t s of e s t i m a t i n g the b a s i c model, with and without i n c l u s i o n of the i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e . On the whole, these r e s u l t s proved d i s a p p o i n t i n g , only s l i g h t support being provided f o r the hypotheses. The t h i r d s e c t i o n t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r s p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r the g e n e r a l l y poor performance of the i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e which are c o n s i s t e n t with an u n d e r l y i n g i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e on l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . . I t a l s o d e s c r i b e s b r i e f l y the r e s u l t s of a l t e r n a t i v e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of the model which were estimated i n order to i n v e s t i g a t e the v a l i d i t y of these e x p l a n a t i o n s . S e c t i o n 3 summarises the c o n c l u s i o n s which may be drawn from the a n a l y s i s , making comparisons, where r e l e v a n t , with p r e v i o u s work on female labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . S g c t i g n ?. „The_Basic Model. . The r e s u l t s of the e s t i m a t i o n of the b a s i c model, without i n c l u s i o n of the i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e , are summarized i n Table VII. The r e g r e s s i o n s showed moderately high R squares,mainly i n the range from .8.to .9, except i n the case of s i n g l e women, where i t was c o n s i d e r a b l y lower (. 68). The performance of each set of v a r i a b l e s i n the Step 1 r e g r e s s i o n i s d i s c u s s e d b r i e f l y , b e fore the e f f e c t s of adding the v a r i a b l e INDMIX are commented on. A l l Women 15-64 Married Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-64 Marr i e d Women 15-24 Marr i e d Women 25-44 Ma r r i e d Women 45-64 DATL -4.032* (4.66) -4.761 (3.57) -3.182 (1.15) 2.675 (0.41) -9.458* (8.12) -5.812* (6.61) -1.074 (0.13) DQUE 0.184 (0.02) -4.189* (.4.65) 5.618* (5.58) -8.046* (6.20) -3.414 (1.55) -5.505* (6.46) -0.238 CO. 01) DPRA -4.515* (8.28) -4.351* (4.23) -5.161* (4.21) -1.414 (0.16) -1.180 (0.17) -4.755* (5.12) -1.518 (0.37) DBC -5.580* (17.64) -6.648* (13.77) -3.981 (3.64) 1.731 CO.34) -5.584* (5.60) -7.151* (.15.65) -2.152 (1.15) DCMA 0.065 (0.00) -0.549 (0.15) 0.663 (0.14) -1.570 (0.45) -1.364 (0.43) -0.615 (0.18) -0.573 (0.10) D2550 0.858 (0.65) -1.382 (0.93) 0.020 (0.00) 0.295 (0.02) -0.459 (0.05) 1.446 (0.98) 1.042 (0.34) D1025 0.979 (0.86) 2.287 (2.58) -1.729 (1.03) 1.745 (.0.54) -2.687 (1.61) 2.114 (2.08) 3.139 (3.20) D510 -6.808* (.25.61) -7.097* (15.31) -6.506* (8.53) 0.172 (0.00) -14.011* (25.12) -8.698* (22.23) -4.057 (3.10) ISO-Id) 110 le tr-ier 110 il-t) I IW l(+ IfD to (D CO I CO IH-IO IP I" I ltd I* IO IM IC lOi IH-IS I IS lo Is IH IX IH IO loo l w l<5 IH IH MUR -0.130 (1.09) -0.286 (2.92) -0.036 (0.04) -0.257 (0.85) -0.492 (3.97) -0.319 (3.51) -0.347 C2.71) FUR -0.741* (24.82) -0.751* (14.02) -0.166 (0.54) -0.648 (3.77) -1.078* (.15.64) -0.633* (10.11) -0.913* (14.76) PCMFT70 -0.064 (0.57) 0.008 (0.01) -0.002 (0.00) 0.895* C21.97) 0.077 (0.29) 0.060 (0.31) 0.035 (0.06) AVFWAG -0.002 (2.39) 0.000 (0.04) -0.005* (6.28) 0.004 (.1.61) 0.002 (0.78) 0.001 (0.20) 0.000 (0.01) AVEMMY -0.003* (16.59) -0.004* (16.54) -0.004* (6.55) -0.003* (6.67) -0.004* (15.42) -0.004* (11.97) PCSCHFT -0.523 (2.78) -0.371 (0.77) -1.907* (29.38) -1.262 (3.23) -0.739 (2.78) -0.446 (1.87) 0.613 (1.92) PCTCHDN 0.093 (0.43) 0.018 (0.01) -0.168 (0.28) -0.097 (0.14) -0.018 (0.01) 0.347 (1.43) PCTNOCH -0.151 (0.20) -0.186 (0.17) -0.443 (.0.34) -0.118 (.0.03) -0.069 (0.02) -0.438 (0.53) FERTxx -0.006* (7.65) -0.006* (4.13) -0.004 (.0.53) -0.015* (5.33) -0.004 (2.52) -0.009* (13.64) PCTOTH 0.115* (.4.67) 0.117 (2.64) 0.161 (.3.49) 0.007 (0.00) -0.137 (1.62) 0.139 (3.85) 0.128 (1.62) xxFED12 0.438* (25.57) 0.445* (14.47) 0.193 (2.33) 0.475* C5.97) 0.117 (1.15) 0.372* 0-5.72) 0.459* (7.21) xxxFUNI 0.495* (.4.56) 0.287 (0.84) 1.464* (15.69) 0.386 CO.55) 0.755* (8.48) 0.103 (0.20) -0.104 CO.06) CONSTANT R 2 93.047 .898 84.419 .876 85.085 .680 44.626 .873 96.796 .781 75.796 .858 77.341 .859 FIGURES IN PARENTHESES-SHOW F VALUES; COEFFICIENTS MARKED ARE SIGNIFICANT AT 5%. 5 9 C o n s i d e r i n g f i r s t t h e ' p e r s o n a l * v a r i a b l e s , b o t h s e t s o f e d u c a t i o n v a r i a b l e s showed, w i t h o n l y one e x c e p t i o n , t h e e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The v a r i a b l e s xxFED12, r e f l e c t i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a g i v e n g r o u p w i t h e d u c a t i o n above G r a d e 11 were s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5% l e v e l f o r a l l g r o u p s e x c e p t s i n g l e women and young m a r r i e d women. C o n v e r s e l y , t h e v a r i a b l e s xxFUNI, r e f l e c t i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n w i t h some u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t i o n were s i g n i f i c a n t o n l y f o r t h e s e g r o u p s i n t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d r e g r e s s i o n s . T h i s r e s u l t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g i n view of t h e g e n e r a l l y h i g h e r l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n a l a t t a i n m e n t among y o u n g e r women who o f c o u r s e , f o r m a l s o t h e m a j o r i t y o f s i n g l e women. The c o e f f i c i e n t o f t h e e t h n i c c o m p o s i t i o n , v a r i a b l e PCTOTH was p o s i t i v e i n 6 of t h e 7 c a s e s , s u g g e s t i n g , o t h e r t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , h i g h e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n by women fr o m b a c k g r o u n d s o t h e r t h a n F r e n c h o r E n g l i s h s p e a k i n g . I t was s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5% l e v e l f o r women a s a whole, b u t not i n any o f t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d r e g r e s s i o n s , t h o u g h s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 10% l e v e l f o r s i n g l e women and m a r r i e d women i n t h e m i d d l e age g r o u p . . The v a r i a b l e s FEETxx m e a s u r i n g t h e number o f c h i l d r e n b o r n t o e v e r - m a r r i e d women showed t h e e x p e c t e d n e g a t i v e s i g n i n e a c h o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n s i n which t h e y a p p e a r e d . They were s i g n i f i c a n t a t 5% f o r women as a whole and f o r m a r r i e d women a s a whole, and f o r young and o l d e r m a r r i e d women, b u t n o t f o r o t h e r women o r , r a t h e r s u r p r i s i n g l y , f o r m a r r i e d women i n t h e m i d d l e age g r o u p . The p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e o t h e r v a r i a b l e s r e f l e c t i n g c h i l d s t a t u s was u n i f o r m l y p o o r . PCTCHDN was i n no c a s e s i g n i f i c a n t and showed an u n e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e s i g n i n 3 o f t h e g r o u p s . PCTNOCH, 60 again not s i g n i f i c a n t , showed an unexpected negative s i g n i n every case. These s u r p r i s i n g r e s u l t s are a t t r i b u t e d p a r t l y t o c o l l i n e a r i t y between the v a r i a b l e s , making the separate e f f e c t s hard to d i s t i n g u i s h , p a r t l y to the f a c t t h a t they were not age s p e c i f i c . . PCTNOCH may t h e r e f o r e be r e f l e c t i n g the age s t r u c t u r e of the p o p u l a t i o n and be only l o o s e l y r e l a t e d to the presence o f c h i l d r e n w i t h i n any age group. C o n s i d e r i n g next the labour market v a r i a b l e s , male income, AVEMJ3Y, showed the expected negative s i g n and was s i g n i f i c a n t i n each case. However, the performance of the female wage v a r i a b l e AVTWAG was p u z z l i n g . In no case was the s i g n s i g n i f i c a n t l y p o s i t i v e , and i n 2 of the 7 groups, women as a whole and s i n g l e women, i t showed an unexpected negative s i g n , w h i c h , f o r the l a t t e r group, was s i g n i f i c a n t a t 5%. I t would not be a p p r o p r i a t e to draw from t h i s the c o n c l u s i o n that p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s unaffected by, or responds n e g a t i v e l y t o , changes i n wage r a t e s . There are s e v e r a l reasons why these r e s u l t s may be c o n s i s t e n t with an u n d e r l y i n g p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e of wages on i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n . AVFWAG, r e p r e s e n t i n g as i t does earnings r a t h e r than wages as such, i s a poor proxy f o r the average wage r a t e . I n t e r c i t y d i f f e r e n c e s i n weeks worked w i t h i n the range 40 t o 52 would c l o u d the r e l a t i o n s h i p between wages and e a r n i n g s , and, i f there were a s y s t e m a t i c tendency to work fewer weeks with hi g h e r average wages, would impart a downward b i a s to the c o e f f i c i e n t . I t may be t h a t r e a l r a t h e r than money wages would be more a p p r o p r i a t e . No c o r r e c t i o n was made f o r i n t e r - c i t y c o s t of l i v i n g d i f f e r e n c e s which, i f p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d to money wages, would again l e a d to a downward b i a s to our estimate of the 61 influence of wages on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . Even without these problems, the average wage rate might i t s e l f be a poor ind i c a t o r of the pot e n t i a l wages faced by inhabitants of an area, p a r t i c u l a r l y i f the d i s t r i b u t i o n of wages i s highly skewed, or i f the the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of women working f u l l time, on whom the variable i s based, d i f f e r systematically from those of the remainder.. Thus a weak relat i o n s h i p between p a r t i c i p a t i o n and our measure of wage rates i s not r e a l l y surprising.. The e f f e c t s of c o l l i n e a r i t y should also be pointed out. A strong simple co r r e l a t i o n between male income and female earnings was apparent.\This was to be expected, and would be absent only i f men and women faced f u l l y separate labour markets. However, i t does make the separate effects of the variables d i f f i c u l t to dis t i n g u i s h . Omitting the male income variable led to a s i g n i f i c a n t negative c o e f f i c i e n t for AVFWAG i n every case but one, r e f l e c t i n g the influence of the omitted variable and confirming i t s stronger influence. It was also suspected that the wage variable might i t s e l f be r e f l e c t i n g the influence of i n d u s t r i a l structure. Since the major female industries are predominantly low wage, a negative c o r r e l a t i o n between the female orientation of industry and both AVEMMY and AVFWAG was expected, and was evidenced by negative, although not p a r t i c u l a r l y large, simple correlations between INDMIX and both of these variables. Thus wage and industry effects might be o f f s e t t i n g . However, subsequent addition of the variable INDMIX showed that the number of cases in which the c o e f f i c i e n t of AVFWAG was negative actually increased when t h i s factor was controlled for. The s i g n i f i c a n t negative c o e f f i c i e n t obtained i n 62 the regression for single females i s also hard to explain since, although AVEMMY was omitted from t h i s eguation f o r t h e o r e t i c a l reasons we have no reason to expect t h i s omitted variable to influence strongly the par t i c i p a t i o n of single women. We can only suggest that the the negative sign r e f l e c t s a tendency to substitute education and other non-market a c t i v i t i e s f or market work i n areas of general prosperity, and that, for some reason, th i s i s not adeguately reflected by inclusion of the variable PCSCHFT. Of the other labour market variables, the female unemployment rate FUR showed the expected negative sign for a l l groups and was s i g n i f i c a n t at the 5% l e v e l for women as a whole and for each of the married groups..The male unemployment rate MUR was also negative in each group. It was nowhwere s i g n i f i c a n t at the 5% l e v e l but was s i g n i f i c a n t at 10% for each group of married women except those over 45. PCTMFT70 showed a pos i t i v e sign i n a l l cases except that of women as a whole, however, i t was s i g n i f i c a n t only for other women, where i t was strongly so. We thus f i n d no evidence of any net added worker behaviour, and considerable support for the existence of a net discouraged worker e f f e c t . . PCSCHFT, as expected, showed a negative association with p a r t i c i p a t i o n which was s i g n i f i c a n t at 5% for single females only. F i n a l l y , we consider the performance of those variables r e f l e c t i n g residence factors. Region of residence proved a s i g n i f i c a n t influence on pa r t i c i p a t i o n for a l l groups except for older married women. Residence in the Atlantic provinces was 63 associated with lower p a r t i c i p a t i o n by women as a whole, by single women and by each group of married women; for other women, the e f f e c t was positive, although not s i g n i f i c a n t l y so. . Residence i n Quebec was also associated with lower p a r t i c i p a t i o n by married women, p a r t i c u l a r l y in the middle age group, and by widowed and divorced women. For single women, the effect was s i g n i f i c a n t l y positive; i t was also p o s i t i v e , though small, for women as a whole, presumably r e f l e c t i n g an above average concentration of high p a r t i c i p a t i o n single women. Location i n the P r a i r i e provinces was associated with lower p a r t i c i p a t i o n r e l a t i v e to the base case of Ontario, for each of the 7 groups. The eff e c t was s i g n i f i c a n t for four groups: a l l women, single women and married women i n aggregate and i n the middle age group. The influence of B r i t i s h Columbia was also generally negative, the c o e f f i c i e n t being negative for a l l groups except other women, and s i g n i f i c a n t for women as a whole and for each group of married women except those over 45. Of the variables r e f l e c t i n g c i t y s i z e , only that representing a Census Agglomeration with population of 5,000 to 10,000 showed s i g n i f i c a n t differences r e l a t i v e to the base case, a Census Agglomeration with population of 50,000 to 100,000.. In this case, a strong negative influence was exerted on par t i c i p a t i o n for a l l groups except other women. The signs on the c o e f f i c i e n t s of the other dummy variables varied, between groups, but these were i n no case s i g n i f i c a n t . Somewhat sur p r i s i n g l y , i n 5 out of the 7 groups^ the sign on the c o e f f i c i e n t of the CMA dummy variable was negative, while those 64 on D2550 and D1025 were each p o s i t i v e i n most o f t h e g r o u p s . However, t h e s e e f f e c t s were i n g e n e r a l s l i g h t . C a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e i n d u s t r y mix v a r i a b l e INDMIX showed a r a n g e between 22.5 ( L a b r a d o r C i t y , Nfd.) and 45.2 (Magog, Q u e . ) , w i t h an o v e r a l l mean o f 33.8. The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a l u e s by c i t y s i z e and r e g i o n i s shown i n T a b l e V I I I . T h e r e was a g e n e r a l t e n d e n c y f o r l o w e r v a l u e s t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s m a l l e r u r b a n a r e a s , w h i l e , o v e r a l l , t h e v a l u e s were h i g h e s t i n Quebec and l o w e s t i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . The r e s u l t s o f a d d i n g INDMIX t o t h e b a s i c model a r e shown i n T a b l e IX. The c o e f f i c i e n t o f INDMIX was p o s i t i v e f o r e v e r y g r o u p , b u t was s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 5% l e v e l o n l y f o r women as a whole, which would seem t o s u g g e s t t h a t , a l t h o u g h i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e does have some i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n , i t s i n d e p e n d e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n i s r e l a t i v e l y minor a n d , f o r t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d g r o u p s , i s o u t w e i g h e d by o t h e r f a c t o r s and by random i n f l u e n c e s . I n c r e a s e s i n R s g u a r e s were n e g l i g i b l e , and o u r e x p e c t a t i o n s o f a g e n e r a l r e d u c t i o n i n t h e magnitude and s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e r e g i o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s were f u l f i l l e d o n l y t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t . I n t h e c a s e o f t h e A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s , t h e P r a i r i e s and B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , a d d i t i o n o f INDMIX d i d b r i n g a b o u t some r e d u c t i o n i n t h o s e c a s e s , t h e m a j o r i t y , where c o e f f i c i e n t s were n e g a t i v e . T h e r e was a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n t h e magnit u d e and s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r o t h e r women i n B.C. And t h e A t l a n t i c s . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e n e g a t i v e r e g i o n a l e f f e c t s a r e p a r t l y r e f l e c t i n g i n d u s t r y mix e f f e c t s a n d , where t h e i n f l u e n c e s a r e p o s i t i v e , t h e y a r e so d e s p i t e an u n f a v o u r a b l e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , so t h a t t h e T A B L E _ V I I I D i s t r i b u t i o n Of V a r i a b l e INDMIX. P r a i r i e s O n t a r i o Quebec A t l a n t i c B.C. CMA's 35. 3 33.2 35. 5 35. 5 35.1 (1.7) (2.9) (1.9) (1.3) (1 . 7 ) C e n s u s A g g l o m e r a t i o n s : 50,000- - 34.8 37.6 31.7 100,000 (4.0) (3. 5) (1 .5) 25,000- 34.9 31.6 35. 8 34.3 30.5 50,000 (0.0) (2.8) (4. 2) (3.9) (3. 5) 10,000- 33.7 33. 9 35. 8 33.2 29.2 25,000 (1 1-4) (3. 2) (6. 9) (5.0) (2. 3) 5,000- 26.0 32.2 32.9 33.5 29.9 10,000 (0.0) (4. 5) (2. 9) (3.7) (3.7) T o t a l 33.9 33.6 35.6 33.6 30.6 (5.1) (3.2) (4.3) (3.9) (3.3) F i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s show s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s . A l l M a r r i e d S i n g l e Women Women Women 15-64 15-64 15-64 DATL -2.716 -4.155 -2 . 9 8 8 (1.95) (2.40) (0.96) DQUE -0.311 -4.417* 5.496* CO.05) (4.98) (5.14) DPRA -4.216* -4.213 -5.159* (7.43) (3.90) (4.16) DBC -5.028* -6.394* -3.815 (14.26) (12.13) (3.11) DCMA 0.178 -0.498 0.703 (0.03) (0.12) CO.16) D2550 v 1.241 1.558 0.078 (1.37) (1.13) (0.00) D1025 1.434 2.497 -1.692 (1.83) (2.92) (0.98) D510 -5.441* -6.467* -6.237* (13.49) (10.02) (7.07) MUR -0.092 -0.269 -0.032 (0.56) (2.50) (0.03) FUR -0.645* -0.707* -0.148 (17.69) (11.17) (0.40) PCMFT70 -0.059 0.011 0.010 (0.50) (0.01) (0.01) AVFWAG -0.002 0.000 -0.005* (3.22) (0.02) (5.52) AVEMMY -0.002* -0.003* (4.31) (7.93) PCSCHFT -0.450 -0.338 -1.879* (2.11) (.0.63) (26.43) PCTCHDN 0.031 -0.011 (0.05) CO.00) PCTNOCH -0.273 -0.241 (0.65) (0.27) FERTxx -0.006* -0.006 (6.42) (3.69) PCTOTH 0.145* 0.131 0..167 (7.16) (3.04) C3.54) xxFED12 0.424* 0.438* 0.187 (24.74) (13 . 8 7 ) (2.13) xxFUNDI 0.311 0.202 1.438* (1.61) (0.36) (14.26) INDMIX 0.258* 0.112 0.054 (4.12) (0.46) (0.10) CONSTANT 78.200 77.584 81.612 R 2 .903 .877 .680 Other Women 1 5 - 6 4 Married Women 1 5 - 2 4 M a r r i e d Women 2 5 - 4 4 Married Women 4 5 - 6 4 4 . 1 8 1 ( 0 . 8 9 ) - 8 . 6 1 6 * ( .6 .59) - 4 . 8 3 8 ( 3 . 9 8 ) - 0 . 6 7 4 ( 0 . 0 5 ) - 8 . 6 1 2 * ( 6 . 9 0 ) - 3 . 6 8 3 ( 1 . 8 1 ) - 5 . 6 3 4 * ( 6 . 7 7 ) - 0 . 6 9 7 ( 0 . 0 6 ) - 1 . 0 7 2 ( 0 . 0 9 ) - 1 . 1 2 0 CO.15) - 4 . 3 9 5 * ( 4 . 2 8 ) - 1 . 6 8 8 ( 0 . 4 5 ) 2 . 3 6 1 ( 0 . 6 0 ) - 5 . 3 4 3 * ( 5 . 1 5 ) - 6 . 4 8 4 * ( 1 1 - 5 9 ) - 2 . 1 1 9 ( L I D - 1 . 4 4 3 ( 0 . 3 8 ) 1 . 2 2 9 CO.35) - 0 . 5 5 4 ( 0 . 1 5 ) - 0 . 4 8 6 ( 0 . 0 7 ) 0 . 7 3 3 ( 0 . 0 9 ) - 0 . 0 6 9 ( 0 . 0 0 ) 1 . 7 5 6 ( 1 . 4 0 ) 1 . 3 9 4 ( 0 . 5 8 ) 2 . 2 6 7 ( 0 . 8 7 ) - 2 . 1 6 6 ( 1 . 0 2 ) 2 . 3 3 6 ( 2 . 5 0 ) 3 . 6 2 4 ( 3 . 9 0 ) 1 . 7 3 7 ( 0 . 2 6 ) - 1 2 . 4 8 5 * ( .17.40) - 7 . 5 5 9 * ( 1 2 . 7 6 ) - 2 . 9 8 0 ( 1 . 3 2 ) - 0 . 2 1 4 ( .0 .58) - 0 . 4 3 3 ( 3 . 0 2 ) - 0 . 2 8 9 ( 2 . 8 0 ) - 0 . 3 1 3 ( 0 . 2 1 ) - 0 . 5 3 8 ( 2 . 3 6 ) - 0 . 9 3 4 * ( 1 0 . 3 3 ) - 0 . 5 5 5 * ( 6 . 9 2 ) - 0 . 8 1 9 ( 0 . 2 6 ) 0 . 9 0 1 * ( 2 2 . 2 6 ) 0 . 0 6 5 ( 0 . 2 1 ) 0 . 0 7 2 ( 0 . 4 6 ) 0 . 0 2 7 ( 0 . 0 4 ) 0 . 0 0 4 ( 1 . 3 1 ) 0 . 0 0 1 ( 0 . 2 5 ) 0 . 0 0 1 ( 0 . 1 0 ) - 0 . 0 0 0 ( 0 . 0 0 ) - 0 . 0 0 3 ( .2 .02) - 0 . 0 0 2 ( 1 . 6 3 ) - 0 . 0 0 3 * ( 4 . 6 7 ) - 0 . 0 0 3 * ( 6 . 5 9 ) - 1 . 1 7 9 ( 2 . 7 8 ) - 0 . 6 2 7 ( 1 . 9 6 ) - 0 . 3 9 2 ( 1 . 4 1 ) 0 . 6 6 2 ( 2 . 2 0 ) - 0 . 2 3 9 ( 0 . 5 5 ) - 0 . 1 7 7 ( 0 . 4 3 ) - 0 . 0 7 5 CO.16) 0 . 3 3 9 ( .1 .36) - 0 . 5 8 4 CO.57) - 0 . 2 5 1 ( 0 . 1 4 ) - 0 . 0 1 3 CO.08) - 0 . 4 9 7 ( 0 . 6 7 ) - 0 . 0 0 3 ( 0 . 3 5 ) - 0 . 0 1 2 C 3 . 1 7 ) - 0 . 0 0 3 ( 1 . 2 3 ) - 0 . 0 0 9 * ( 1 3 . 9 8 ) - 0 . 0 4 2 CO.11) - 0 . 1 0 3 ( 0 . 8 7 ) 0 . 1 6 4 * ( 4 . 8 8 ) 0 . 1 4 5 ( 1 . 9 9 ) 0 . 4 5 9 * ( 5 . 5 4 ) 0 . 0 9 9 ( 0 . 8 2 ) 0 . 3 5 6 * ( .14.04) 0 . 4 5 8 * ( 7 . 1 4 ) 0 . 1 7 5 ( 0 . 1 0 ) 0 . 6 4 5 * ( 5 . 7 0 ) - 0 . 0 1 9 ( 0 . 0 0 ) - 0 . 1 7 6 CO.15) 0 . 2 9 5 ( 1 , 0 3 ) 0 . 3 4 4 ( 1 - 8 9 ) 0 . 2 1 9 C I . 21) 0 . 1 7 6 ( 0 . 8 4 ) 2 7 . 6 3 6 7 9 . 0 7 9 6 0 . 5 0 5 6 9 . 0 1 7 . 8 7 5 . 7 8 6 . 8 6 0 . 8 6 0 FIGURES IN PARENTHESES SHOW F VALUES; COEFFICIENTS MARKED '*' ARE SIGNIFICANT 67 r e g i o n a l e f f e c t h e r e becomes s t r o n g e r once t h i s f a c t o r h as been a l l o w e d f o r . I n t h e c a s e o f Quebec, t h e r e v e r s e was t r u e . . F o r women as a whole, t h e s i g n on t h e dummy v a r i a b l e c h a n g e d f r o m p o s i t i v e t o n e g a t i v e , w h i l e t h e p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e on s i n g l e women was r e d u c e d and t h e n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s i n d i c a t e d f o r e a c h g r o u p of m a r r i e d and o t h e r women were i n c r e a s e d . I t seems t h e r e f o r e a s t h o u g h t h e n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s on t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f t h e s e women i n Quebec o c c u r d e s p i t e i t s f a v o u r a b l e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . I t must be s t r e s s e d , however, t h a t t h e s e c h a n g e s a r e v e r y s m a l l , i n most c a s e s l e s s t h a n one p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t . I n o n l y t h r e e c a s e s would a d d i t i o n o f INDMIX c a u s e a c o e f f i c i e n t f o r m e r l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t 5% t o a p p e a r i n s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h i s l e v e l . I t would t h e r e f o r e h a r d l y be j u s t i f i e d t o draw any f i r m c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h e s e r e s u l t s . . S e c t i o n _ 3 a._Shcrtcominqs Of T h e ^ A n a l y s i s . T h i s s e c t i o n c o n s i d e r s t h e e x t e n t t o which s h o r t c o m i n g s i n t h e d a t a and met h o d o l o g y may a c c o u n t f o r t h e r a t h e r d i s a p p o i n t i n g r e s u l t s which were o b t a i n e d . F i r s t l y , we c o n s i d e r how f a r t h e d a t a j u s t i f i e d t h e use o f a l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n model, e x a m i n i n g e v i d e n c e r e l a t e d t o t h e a s s u m p t i o n s o f h o m o s k e d a c i t y , l i n e a r i t y and t h e i n d e p e n d e n c e o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s . A v i s u a l e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p a t t e r n o f r e s i d u a l t e r m s showed some e v i d e n c e o f h e t e r o s k e d a c i t y , t h a t i s , of u n e q u a l v a r i a n c e s . . The v a r i a n c e a p p e a r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r f o r t h e s m a l l e r u r b a n a r e a s . . T h i s i s h a r d l y s u r p r i s i n g , s i n c e t h e s m a l l e r t h e number o f i n d i v i d u a l s on which t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f 68 p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i s based, the g r e a t e r w i l l be the i n f l u e n c e of random f a c t o r s . H e t e r o s k e d a c i t y does not, i n ge n e r a l , b i a s the e s t i m a t e s of c o e f f i c i e n t s , but does l e a d to estimates which are i n e f f i c i e n t , t h a t i s , i s , which have an u n n e c e s s a r i l y l a r g e standard e r r o r . H e t e r o s k e d a c i t y which f o l l o w s t h i s kind o f pa t t e r n may be c o r r e c t e d f o r by weighting each o b s e r v a t i o n p r o p o r t i n a t e l y to the square root of the f a c t o r which i s i n v e r s e l y a s s o c i a t e d with v a r i a n c e . The model was t h e r e f o r e adjusted by g i v i n g each case a weight p r o p o r t i o n a l to the sguare roo t of the a d u l t female p o p u l a t i o n . The r e s u l t s from t h i s s et of r e g r e s s i o n s are presented i n Appendix 1a. Apart from a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n the o v e r a l l e x p l a n a t o r y power of the r e g r e s s i o n s , the r e s u l t s were e f f e c t i v e l y i d e n t i c a l with those of the b a s i c model. INDMIX was again s i g n i f i c a n t only i n the case of women as a whole. The assumption of a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between the dependent and independent v a r i a b l e s i m p l i e s t h a t a given change or d i f f e r e n c e i n the l e v e l of an independent v a r i a b l e w i l l have an equal e f f e c t whatever the l e v e l of t h a t v a r i a b l e . P l o t t i n g the values of each independent v a r i a b l e a g a i n s t the dependent v a r i a b l e s showed no obvious v i o l a t i o n s of the l i n e a r i t y assumptions. . Using the loga r i t h m of INDMIX as the independent v a r i a b l e , which would imply an un d e r l y i n g curved r e l a t i o n s h i p between INDMIX such t h a t a given a b s o l u t e change i s r e l a t i v e l y more important at lower l e v e l s , we again obtained very s i m i l a r r e s u l t s , INDMIX being once more s i g n i f i c a n t only f o r women as a whole. (Appendix 1b.) The problem of m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y has a l r e a d y been a l l u d e d t o . M u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y e x i s t s when an independent v a r i a b l e i s l i n e a r l y r e l a t e d to one or more of the o t h e r s . In the extreme case, where the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s p e r f e c t or almost so, c o e f f i c i e n t s cannot be computed. In l e s s extreme cases, the f o l l o w i n g may r e s u l t ; (1) The c o e f f i c i e n t s w i l l tend to have very l a r g e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s , l e a d i n g to i n a c c u r a t e estimates and to the appearance o f i n s i g n i f i c a n c e even where an u n d e r l y i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p i s strong; (2) While e i t h e r one of two r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s may s i n g l y appear s i g n i f i c a n t , i f both are i n c l u d e d one or both may appear i n s i g n i f i c a n t , (3) R e l a t i v e l y s m a l l m o d i f i c a t i o n s to the data or to the s t r u c t u r e of the eguations may b r i n g about l a r g e changes i n the c o e f f i c i e n t s . The e f f e c t of m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s , then, to make the separate e f f e c t s of each v a r i a b l e d i f f i c u l t t o d i s t i n g u i s h . As mentioned i n the previous s e c t i o n , t h i s l e d to problems with the wage and income v a r i a b l e s . Although none of the simple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between INDMIX and the other independent v a r i a b l e s were l a r g e enough to g i v e cause f o r concern, the l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between i t and the s e t of other independent v a r i a b l e s , obtained by r e g r e s s i n g INDMIX on the other v a r i a b l e s , was s t r o n g , the n e g a t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n with the male income v a r i a b l e being p a r t i c u l a r l y s i g n i f i c a n t . . T h e r e were a l s o f a i r l y strong r e l a t i o n s h i p s with the dummy v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g B r i t i s h Columbia, the A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s and the s e t of Census Agglomerations with p o p u l a t i o n s of 5,000 t o 70 1 0 , 0 0 0 — a n i n e v i t a b l e r e f l e c t i o n of t h e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s e a r e a s . To t e s t f o r t h e e x i s t e n c e and e f f e c t s o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y , f u r t h e r r e g r e s s i o n s were r u n o m i t t i n g , f i r s t l y , AVEMMY, s e c o n d l y , t h e r e g i o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s and t h i r d l y t h e c i t y s i z e dummy v a r i a b l e s . The r e s u l t s o f t h e s e r e g r e s s i o n s , which a r e shown i n A p p e n d i c e s 1c t h r o u g h 1e, a r e q u i t e s t r i k i n g . O m i s s i o n o f AVEMMY r e s u l t e d i n a s i g n i f i c a n t l y p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r INDMIX i n e a c h o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n s . O m i s s i o n o f t h e r e g i o n a l dummies i n c r e a s e d t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f INDMIX g e n e r a l l y , making i t s i g n i f i c a n t a t 5% f o r m a r r i e d women i n t h e m i d d l e age g r o u p and a t 10% f o r young m a r r i e d women. I t was a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t f o r s i n g l e women, th o u g h we s u s p e c t t h e l a t t e r a s s o c i a t i o n t o be a l a r g e l y s p u r i o u s one r e f l e c t i n g t h e h i g h e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n by s i n g l e women i n Quebec, which does not n e c e s s a r i l y r e s u l t f r o m i t s more f a v o u r a b l e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . When t h e c i t y s i z e dummy v a r i a b l e s were e x c l u d e d , INDMIX a g a i n p r o v e d s i g n i f i c a n t f o r women as a whole and f o r e a c h g r o u p o f m a r r i e d women e x c e p t f o r t h o s e o f 45 and o v e r , f o r whom, i t w i l l be r e c a l l e d , c i t y s i z e f a c t o r s were t h e m s e l v e s n o t i m p o r t a n t . We i n t e r p r e t t h e s e r e s u l t s a s s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t h e u n d e r l y i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e and f e m a l e l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n may be p a r t l y masked by i t s c l o s e a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h o t h e r v a r i a b l e s . The f a c t t h a t i n t h e a b s e n c e o f dummy v a r i a b l e s i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e becomes q u i t e s t r o n g l y s i g n i f i c a n t a l s o s u g g e s t s t h a t , i n t h e o r i g i n a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e s e dummy v a r i a b l e s were p a r t l y r e f l e c t i n g 71 i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . That, i n the b a s i c model, they remained s i g n i f i c a n t when INDMIX was added i m p l i e s the i n f l u e n c e of other f a c t o r s as w e l l , so t h a t the dummy v a r i a b l e s provided a more powerful e x p l a n a t i o n than INDMIX alone. Because of the s t r o n g a s s o c i a t i o n between these v a r i a b l e s , INDMIX i t s e l f t h e r e f o r e appeared l a r g e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . Thus we again f i n d some support f o r our hypotheses, although an e s t i m a t i o n cf the magnitude of the independendent e f f e c t s of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e cannot be a r r i v e d a t . Next, we c o n s i d e r the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t w e a k n e s s e s — e i t h e r conceptual or m e t h o d o l o g i c a l — i n the v a r i a b l e INDMIX used t o re p r e s e n t i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e may themselves have c o n t r i b u t e d to our somewhat i n c o n c l u s i v e r e s u l t s . There are t h r e e p o s s i b l e sources o f d i s t o r t i o n ; u n f o r t u n a t e l y , given the e x i s t i n g data, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to do more than s p e c u l a t e on the degree of e r r o r which may have been i n t r o d u c e d by these weaknesses. F i r s t l y , the measure was based on the i n t e r - i n d u s t r y d i s t r i b u t i o n of the experienced labour f o r c e r a t h e r than of employment as such. The experienced labour f o r c e — w h i c h d i f f e r s from the t o t a l labour f o r c e by the e x c l u s i o n of those members who had never worked or who l a s t worked p r i o r t o January 1 1 9 7 0 — i n c l u d e s unemployed as we l l as employed and i s t h e r e f o r e an i m p e r f e c t i n d i c a t o r of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . . So long as unemployment i s d i s t r i b u t e d approximately e g u a l l y between i n d u s t r i e s , t h i s i s not important. I f , however, unemployment were s y s t e m a t i c a l l y higher i n some i n d u s t r i e s , or i f an i n d u s t r y ' s share of t o t a l r e g i o n a l unemployment d i f f e r e d s y s t e m a t i c a l l y between r e g i o n s , then a source of b i a s i s 72 i n t r o d u c e d . Higher unemployment i n i n d u s t r i e s with a high p r o p o r t i o n of females w i l l l e a d to an overestimate of the f a v o u r a b l e n e s s of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , which w i l l be g r e a t e r the l a r g e r the p r o p o r t i o n of an area's labour f o r c e i s employed i n t h a t i n d u s t r y . The c o e f f i c i e n t would then be lower than i t would i f a t r u e measure were used. I f unemployment were r e l a t i v e l y higher i n male-dominated i n d u s t r i e s , the r e v e r s e would be the case. I t does not seem unreasonable to suppose t h a t such e r r o r s would be l a r g e l y . o f f s e t t i n g and the net e f f e c t r e l a t i v e l y minor. Secondly, there i s the p o s s i b i l i t y of aggregation b i a s . I f wi t h i n an i n d u s t r y there are two s u b - s e c t o r s the f i r s t of which employs a higher p r o p o r t i o n of females than the second, then the use of aggregate s e c t o r data w i l l l e a d us to underestimate the f a v o u r a b l e n e s s of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e i n an area s p e c i a l i s i n g i n the f i r s t and to overestimate i t i n one s p e c i a l i s i n g i n the second. R e l a t e d to t h i s , there may be i n t e r c i t y d i f f e r e n c e s i n the o c c u p a t i o n a l composition of an i n d u s t r y ' s l a b o u r f o r c e , which w i l l not be r e f l e c t e d by our measure. There may, f o r example, be a tendency to underestimate the f a v o u r a b l e n e s s towards female employment of C.M.A.'s because of what might be termed the head o f f i c e e f f e c t : a r e l a t i v e l y high demand f o r female c l e r i c a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e workers i n i n d u s t r i e s which are , o v e r a l l , male dominated.. In both these i n s t a n c e s , INDMIX w i l l be an i m p e r f e c t i n d i c a t o r and the t r u e r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i l l be to some ext e n t clouded. T h i r d l y , i t may be t h a t the response t o i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e v a r i e s s y s t e m a t i c a l l y between r e g i o n s . I f i n some r e g i o n s employers are more w i l l i n g to h i r e women, and women t o be h i r e d , o u t s i d e the t r a d i t i o n a l occupations and i n d u s t r i e s , then we would expect the e f f e c t s of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e to be l e s s marked t h e r e . E s t i m a t i n g i t s e f f e c t s f o r the country as a whole w i l l t h e r e f o r e l e a d t o poor r e s u l t s . We allowed f o r t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y by c r e a t i n g i n t e r a c t i o n terms between INDMIX and each of the dummy v a r i a b l e s . The c o e f f i c i e n t s of these v a r i a b l e s , INDATL, INDQUE, INDPRA, INDBC, re p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the response to i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , or slope of the r e g r e s s i o n l i n e , between each r e g i o n and the base case o f On t a r i o , a p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t i n d i c a t i n g g r e a t e r , and a negative one l e s s e r responsiveness..The r e s u l t s of adding these terms to the b a s i c model are i n d i c a t e d i n appendix 1 f . The c o e f f i c i e n t of INDATL was p o s i t i v e i n every case but one, t h a t of s i n g l e women, and was s i g n i f i c a n t a t 5% f o r women as a whole. That of INDQUE was ne g a t i v e i n every case except t h a t of s i n g l e women, and was s i g n i f i c a n t f o r married women as a whole and i n the middle age group. The c o e f f i c i e n t of INDBC was negative f o r women as a whole and f o r each group of married women, but was s i g n i f i c a n t i n no case, while t h a t of INDPRA showed no c l e a r p a t t e r n . . Thus there i s some i n d i c a t i o n t h a t women i n the A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s are more r e a d i l y d e t e r r e d , and women i n Quebec l e s s so, by an unfavourable i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . However, t h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n should be made very c a u t i o u s l y i n view of the problems of c o l l i n e a r i t y . . The simple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between each o f the dummy v a r i a b l e s and i t s corresponding i n t e r a c t i o n term was i n t h e o r d e r o f .99. The s t a n d a r d e r r o r s o f t h e dummy v a r i a b l e s became v e r y l a r g e when t h e i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s were a d d e d , so t h a t t h e y r e m a i n e d s i g n i f i c a n t i n o n l y 2 c a s e s . Many o f t h e s i g n s changed and i t was n o t i c e a b l e t h a t a p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r t h e dummy v a r i a b l e was i n e v e r y c a s e matched by a n e g a t i v e s i g n on t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m , and v i c e v e r s a . M o r e o v e r , when t h e dummy v a r i a b l e s were o m i t t e d f r o m t h e model, t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s became g u i t e d i f f e r e n t . ( A ppendix 1g.) The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n t e r m s were, i n t e r m s o f s i z e and s i g n i f i c a n c e , v i r t u a l l y i d e n t i c a l w i t h t h o s e o f t h e s i m p l e dummy v a r i a b l e s i n t h e b a s i c model, s o t h a t i t was c l e a r l y r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n f a c t o r s n o t s p e c i f i c a l l y i n c l u d e d b e i n g r e f l e c t e d r a t h e r t h a n g e n u i n e d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e s p o n s e . Thus w h i l e we c a n n o t r u l e o u t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a r e s p o n s e d i f f e r i n g s y s t e m a t i c a l l y between r e g i o n s , n o r can we draw any f i r m c o n c l u s i o n s . S e c t i o n , 4 . Summary_Of_Results A n d , R e l a t i o n To P r e v i o u s S t u d i e s . I n t h i s s e c t i o n , we summarise and comment on t h e r e s u l t s o u t l i n e d a b o v e , and draw c o m p a r i s o n s w i t h p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s . Our ' p e r s o n a l 1 v a r i a b l e s , used p r i m a r i l y a s c o n t r o l s , r e q u i r e l i t t l e comment. They showed t h e e x p e c t e d r e s u l t s w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f o f t h e poor p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e a g g r e g a t e c h i l d s t a t u s v a r i a b l e s . The f i n d i n g o f a p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n n e i t h e r E n g l i s h n o r F r e n c h s p e a k i n g c o n f o r m s w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f S w i d i n s k y (1969) and S k o u l o s (1970) , t h o u g h c o n t r a s t i n g w i t h t h o s e o f K u n i n ( 1 9 7 0 ) . . 75 The demonstration of a dominant discouraged worker e f f e c t i s , too, i n conformity with the m a j o r i t y of Canadian c r o s s -s e c t i o n s t u d i e s . C o n s i d e r a b l e d i f f e r e n c e s were found i n the response t o unemployment of the groups of women by d i f f e r e n t m a r i t a l s t a t u s . The response was l e a s t by s i n g l e women and g r e a t e s t by married women, p a r t i c u l a r l y those i n the 15 to 24 age group. . T h i s f i n d i n g c o n t r a s t s with the c r o s s s e c t i o n study by Swidinsky, which showed the g r e a t e s t response by s i n g l e women. T h i s d i f f e r e n c e may perhaps be a t t r i b u t e d t o a d e c l i n e i n the pr e v a l e n c e of o f f s e t t i n g added worker behaviour by married women by 1971, which would be c o n s i s t e n t with the r e s u l t s obtained by Gunderson (1977), which demonstrated no evidence of t h i s behaviour. Our i n c l u s i o n of a v a r i a b l e r e f l e c t i n g the p r o p o r t i o n i n s c h o o l would a l s o tend to l e s s e n the apparent s e n s i t i v i t y of s i n g l e women. Widowed and di v o r c e d women showed l i t t l e r e sponsiveness t o unemployment, but, alone among the groups, were h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e to our measure of the o v e r a l l s t a b i l i t y o f unemployment, suggesting t h a t , while more f l e x i b l e than s i n g l e women i n t h e i r labour market attchment, they l e a v e the la b o u r f o r c e l e s s r e a d i l y than married women i n response to c u r r e n t unemployment.. The l a c k of a s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e response t o the l e v e l o f female wages seems t o be without precedent. While, f o r reasons e x p l a i n e d i n s e c t i o n 2, t h i s r e s u l t cannot be used to draw i n f e r e n c e s r e g a r d i n g i n d i v i d u a l behaviour, a s i m i l a r aggregate measure was used by both Swidinsky and Skoulos, with the expected p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s . T h i s d i f f e r e n c e may perhaps r e f l e c t a r e a l weakening i n the i n f l u e n c e of wages s i n c e those s t u d i e s were c a r r i e d out, or may merely i n d i c a t e t h a t f o r some reason the problems a s s o c i a t e d with i t s e s t i m a t i o n have i n c r e a s e d . . Turning t o the area of major i n t e r e s t , our a n a l y s i s confirmed the e x i s t e n c e of an i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e on female p a r t i c i p a t i o n , an i n f l u e n c e i n the expected d i r e c t i o n , with the groups showing the most c o n s i s t e n t response being married women i n the 15 to 24 and 25 to 44 age groups. I t provided some evidence t o suggest t h a t part of the 'unexplained* r e g i o n a l i n f l u e n c e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y the n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e of the A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s , may be a t t r i b u t e d t o i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , and t h a t , i n a d d i t i o n , p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i n the A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s may be p a r t i c u l a r l y s e n s i t i v e t o i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . However, i t i s c l e a r t h a t other f a c t o r s are a l s o being r e f l e c t e d i n r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s , and, i n p a r t c u l a r , i n the negative i n f l u e n c e of Quebec d e s p i t e i t s f a v o u r a b l e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . The c l o s e a s s o c i a t i o n between our measure of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e and other v a r i a b l e s made i t impossible to e s t i m a t e with any accuracy the r e l a t i v e importance of the e f f e c t o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e ; we can, however, a s s e r t t h a t i t appeared t o e x p l a i n l e s s of the v a r i a t i o n i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s than the l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n o r , f o r married women, the more c o n v e n t i o n a l measure of labour demand. In the f i r s t c h apter, we c i t e d s e v e r a l i n s t a n c e s where measures of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e proved c o n s i s t e n t and s i g n i f i c a n t i n e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a t i o n s i n female p a r t i c i p a t i o n . The r e l a t i v e l y poor performance of our v a r i a b l e t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e s some comment. The stronger i n f l u e n c e estimated f o r the s i m i l a r measure by Bowen and Finegan i n t h e i r 1969 study may well r e f l e c t genuine b e h a v i o u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s between the U n i t e d S t a t e s i n 1960 and Canada i n 1971, stemming from a l e s s e r degree of l a b o u r market s e g r e g a t i o n i n the second i n s t a n c e , . On the other hand, when e i t h e r s e t of dummy v a r i a b l e s were omitted from our a n a l y s i s , the r e s u l t s were not d i s s i m i l a r . The poor performance of our measure r e l a t i v e t o that used by Skoulos, r e p r e s e n t i n g the p r o p o r t i o n of the la b o u r f o r c e i n white c o l l a r occupations may again be r e g l e c t i n g a l e s s e n i n g o f the i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e s i n c e 1961. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i t may r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the formation of the v a r i a b l e or i n the l e v e l of aggregation a t which the a n a l y s i s was performed--in S k o u l o s 1 s case, c i t i e s , towns and mun i c i p a l s u b d i v i s i o n s . Our measure should be • s u p e r i o r ' i n both r e s p e c t s , i n t h a t i t r e f l e c t s the e n t i r e range of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e r a t h e r than merely a white c e l l a r / o t h e r dichotomy, and i n t h a t i t r e f l e c t s c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n an area which approximates a labour market r a t h e r than an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e d i v i s i o n . By using o c c u p a t i o n a l r a t h e r than i n d u s t r y - b a s e d data Skoulos' measure w i l l pick up the 'head o f f i c e e f f e c t ' ; i n doing so, i t may a l s o be t h a t h i s measure r e f l e c t s a t t i t u d i n a l i n f l u e n c e s r a t h e r than a'pure' employment o p p o r t u n i t y e f f e c t . Nakamura et a l (1979) used 1971 Census data, so t h a t the p o s s i b i l i t y of a genuine s h i f t i n the i n f l u e n c e o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e does not a r i s e . The g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h e i r • o p p o r t u n i t y f o r j o b s ' index may be i n part a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e i r use of i n d i v i d u a l data, with a dichotomous dependent v a r i a b l e r e f l e c t i n g labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o . Many of the 78 problems o f m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i n v o l v e d when aggregate data were used would t h e r e f o r e be absent, which may have more than compensated f o r t h e i r use of province-wide r a t h e r than urban area data. I t may a l s o be t h a t , s i n c e they d i d not c o n t r o l f o r •independent' r e g i o n a l i n f l u e n c e s , t h e i r measure of job o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s r e f l e c t i n g these e f f e c t s . . The 'perverse' e f f e c t s of re s i d e n c e i n Quebec, with i t s low p a r t i c i p a t i o n d e s p i t e f a v o u r a b l e i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , would be l a r g e l y r e f l e c t e d i n the negative c o e f f i c i e n t s which r e s u l t e d f o r dummy v a r i a b l e s r e f l e c t i n g r e l i g i o n (Roman C a t h o l i c ) and language (French); i t may t h e r e f o r e be t h a t t h e i r v a r i a b l e , i s p i c k i n g up the kind of miscellaneous i n f l u e n c e s which, i n our a n a l y s i s , were r e f l e c t e d by the r e g i o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s . 79 CHAPTER 4 Conclusio n s S e c t i o n 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n . . The r e s u l t s d e s c r i b e d i n the pr e v i o u s chapter showed t h a t , while a c o n s i s t e n t p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between the female l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i n a labour market and the extent t o which t h a t labour market's i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e i s o r i e n t e d towards the employment of females was i n d i c a t e d , t h i s f a c t o r d i d not appear to be a major i n f l u e n c e . In e x p l a i n i n g the v a r i a t i o n i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , i t s performance proved i n f e r i o r to t h a t of the al r e a d y well-documented i n f l u e n c e s of edu c a t i o n , aggregate l a b o u r demand and, f o r married women, f e r t i l i t y and male income. Furthermore, a l l o w i n g f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e d i d not s i g n i f i c a n t l y reduce the r o l e of the 'independent' i n f l u e n c e of r e g i o n on p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , although we showed t h a t , with the e x c e p t i o n of Quebec, th e r e was evidence to suggest t h a t the r e g i o n a l i n f l u e n c e s on the p a r t i c i p a t i o n of married women were p a r t l y r e f l e c t i n g i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . . We a l s o showed t h a t s t a t i s t i c a l p r o b l e m s — b o t h weaknesses i n the a c t u a l p r o x i e s used t o rep r e s e n t the v a r i o u s i n f l u e n c e s , and the prevalence of c o l l i n e a r i t y between these p r o x i e s — m a y have been, i n l a r g e p a r t , the cause of these r a t h e r d i s a p p o i n t i n g r e s u l t s . Thus the o v e r a l l c o n c l u s i o n i s , not t h a t women's p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s l i t t l e a f f e c t e d by i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e , but th a t the i n f l u e n c e appears t o be such as i s not r e a d i l y r e f l e c t e d by an aggregate, c r o s s - s e c t i o n study of t h i s type. 80 The i s s u e examined was a f a i r l y narrow one though, as the f i r s t chapter pointed out, i t has c o n s i d e r a b l e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r welfare, and consequently f o r plann i n g and p o l i c y making, a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s . Even had the r e s u l t s provided more support f o r the hypotheses, i t would s t i l l have been necessary t o p o i n t out a number of caveats before making such i n f e r e n c e s , while, g i v e n the i n c o n c l u s i v e nature of the r e s u l t s , any d i s c u s s i o n of p o l i c y i s s u e s must n e c e s s a r i l y be l i m i t e d t o general terms. In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , we f i r s t l y c o n s i d e r these c a v e a t s and, s e c o n d l y , plac e the i s s u e i n the wider context by d i s c u s s i n g the two broad s t r a t e g i e s which might be used t o combat the i n f l u e n c e o f unfavourable i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . In the f i n a l s e c t i o n , some suggestions are o f f e r e d f o r f u r t h e r data c o l l e c t i o n and r e s e a r c h which might l e a d t o a g r e a t e r understanding of the i s s u e . S e c t i o n , 2 . . P o l i c y S t r a t e g i e s . _ I t was s t r e s s e d i n the f i r s t chapter that a higher p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e should not a u t o m a t i c a l l y be assumed p r e f e r a b l e t o a lower one. The i s s u e should not be how to r a i s e the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e w i t h i n an area f o r i t s own sake, but r a t h e r how to deal with those f a c t o r s p r e s e n t i n g i n v o l u n t a r y c o n s t r a i n t s on p a r t i c i p a t i o n . To the extent t h a t i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e does present such a c o n s t r a i n t , i t may be only one of a number of f a c t o r s . . I t s r e l a x a t i o n w i l l b r i n g about a d e s i r e d i n c r e a s e i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n only to the extent t h a t other c o n d i t i o n s such as c h i l d - c a r e f a c i l i t i e s , t r a i n i n g p r o v i s i o n s , p h y s i c a l m o b i l i t y and the l e v e l of eggregate demand permit women to respond. 81 While the i n f l u e n c e of i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e has been viewed i n terms of i t s i n f l u e n c e as a f a c t o r encouraging or i n h i b i t i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n , i t must be remembered that the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e i t s e l f i s a crude measure, g i v i n g no i n d i c a t i o n of the extent t o which labou r f o r c e members are f u l l y employed. A high p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e w i t h i n a labour market may s t i l l be combined with problems o f high unemployment or underemployment, the l a t t e r e i t h e r i n the form of women working part-time who would p r e f e r f u l l - t i m e work, or of women employed i n work below t h e i r c a p a b i l i t y and pr e f e r e n c e . B e a r i n g i n mind these f a c t o r s , i f the s e g r e g a t i o n of women i n t o jobs i n c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i e s and occupations r e s u l t s i n i n v o l u n t a r y n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i o n where an area i s under-endowed with such jobs, then, l o g i c a l l y , t h e r e are two ways t o combat t h i s s t a t e o f a f f a i r s : by encouraging the p r o v i s i o n of such jobs, o r by breaking down the s e g r e g a t i o n through encouraging e n t r y i n t o other types of employment. To the extent t h a t t h i s second approach i s encompassed by broader a n t i - d i s c r i m i n a t i o n and equal o p p o r t u n i t y measures, i t has long been an o b j e c t of government p o l i c y . In 1964, the F e d e r a l Government r a t i f i e d an I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labour Convention concerning d i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n r e s p e c t of employment and occ u p a t i o n , imposing the o b l i g a t i o n t o ...pursue a n a t i o n a l p o l i c y of promoting e q u a l i t y o f op p o r t u n i t y and treatment i n r e s p e c t of employment without d i s c r i m i n a t i o n on a number of grounds, i n c l u d i n g sex.. (Women's Bureau, 1974, p.24.) The Employment Convention r a t i f i e d two years l a t e r c a l l e d f o r p o l i c y designed t o promote f u l l , p r o d u c t i v e and f r e e l y chosen employment, such t h a t 82 The f u l l e s t p o s s i b l e o p p o r t u n i t y should be provided f o r each worker t o q u a l i f y f o r and use i n d i v i d u a l s k i l l s i n a jo b , i r r e s p e c t i v e c f sex, (Labour Canada, 1979, p.5.) The Canadian Human E i g h t s Act passed i n 1977 p r o h i b i t s d i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n employment or employment p o l i c i e s , i n c l u d i n g advertisements r e l a t i n g to employment..By 1979, each p r o v i n c e and t e r r i t o r y had passed s i m i l a r l e g i s l a t i o n , though v a r y i n g somewhat i n coverage. The Hoyal Comission on the Status of Women was e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1967, i t s b a s i c terms of r e f e r e n c e •to recommend what steps might be taken by the F e d e r a l Government t o ensure f o r women egual o p p o r t u n i t i e s with those of men'. I t s recommendations covered a wide range of i s s u e s under f e d e r a l j u r i s d i c t i o n , i n c l u d i n g the t a k i n g of measures to reduce sex-typin g w i t h i n the C i v i l S e r v i c e . (Royal Commission on the S t a t u s of Women i n Canada, 1970). . F o l l o w i n g the p u b l i s h i n g of t h i s r e p o r t , a F e d e r a l Government m i n i s t e r was giv e n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the S t a t u s o f Women.. T h i s o f f i c e , i n 1979, publis h e d a Plan of Ac t i o n which c o n t a i n e d the f i r s t s i g n i f i c a n t commitment to a f f i r m a t i v e a c t i o n , the t h r e e b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s b eing, (a) A l l persons should enjoy equal r i g h t s , o p p o r t u n i t i e s and r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s without regard to d i f f e r e n c e s of sex and m a r i t a l s t a t u s , and these r i g h t s should be p r o t e c t e d by law. , (b) Both men and women should have the opp o r t u n i t y to make f r e e and informed choices about how they l i v e . T h e r e f o r e , n e i t h e r laws, nor s o c i e t y , should impose s e x - s t e r e o t y p e d r o l e s cn women or men.. (c) There s h a l l be no s p e c i a l treatment on the b a s i s of sex, with two exc e p t i o n s : measures r e l a t i n g to maternity, and short-term measures t o reduce or e l i m i n a t e disadvantages s u f f e r e d by women due t o past d i s c r i m i n a t i o n . (Status of Women, 1979, p. 9.) This same r e p o r t admits t h a t . 83 Removal of d i s c r i m i n a t o r y language from l e g i s l a t i o n w i l l not alone achieve our o b j e c t i v e s . E q u a l i t y , i n p r a c t i c e , r e q u i r e s a t t i t u d i n a l and economic changes which w i l l a f f e c t a l l our r e l a t i o n s h i p s , ...although there has been a dramatic i n c r e a s e of women i n many of the p r o f e s s i o n s , we must re c o g n i s e that most women i n Canada s t i l l work i n the t r a d i t i o n a l occupations of stenographer, t y p i s t , s a l e s c l e r k , baby s i t t e r , maid, s e r v i c e worker, s c h o o l t e a c h e r , seamstress, w a i t r e s s , nurse, n u r s i n g a s s i s t a n t and a i d e , telephone o p e r a t o r , j a n i t o r and c l e a n e r . Improvement i n women's wages and i n the nature and c o n d i t i o n of t h e i r work w i l l come n e i t h e r e a s i l y nor q u i c k l y , (p. 11.) o We do not propose t o question the d e s i r a b i l i t y of the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s i m p l i e d here. However, to achieve any s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s , a f a r g r e a t e r commitment than has been accorded such statements i n the past w i l l be necessary. The l i m i t e d impact of a decade and more of equal o p p o r t u n i t y measures i s p a r t l y i l l u s t r a t e d by Table X, which compares the d i s t r i b u t i o n of employment by major i n d u s t r y group and sex f o r 1971 and 1979. Though the p r o p o r t i o n of women i n every i n d u s t r y group d i d as more women entered the labour f o r c e , over 70 percent of female workers were s t i l l i n the three 'female' i n d u s t r y groups. I t remains to be seen wheher the recent p o l i c y s tatementsts w i l l b r i n g about any more:far-reaching changes. To comment on the d e s i r a b i l i t y of the other s t r a t e g y , the encouragement of 'women's jobs', i t i s necessary to examine some of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of these' j o b s . In g e n e r a l , most are low s k i l l , low p r o d u c t i v i t y and low pay. Looking f i r s t at the i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of ear n i n g s , Table XI shows average weekly earnings f o r major i n d u s t r y d i v i s i o n s i n 1979. S e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s and r e t a i l t r a d e , the l a r g e s t employers of female l a b o u r , show the lowest weekly earnings. Within the manufacturing i n d u s t r y , the l e a t h e r , c l o t h i n g and k n i t t i n g 84. TABLE X D i s t r i b u t i o n of Employment by Major Industry Group and Sex 1971 and 1979 . 1971 1 1979 2 % % of % of % 5 I of % of Female Female Male Female Female Male Labour Labour Labour Labour Industry Force Force Force Force A g r i c u l t u r e 14.6 2.7 7.9 25.2 3.0 4.7 Other Primary I n d u s t r i e s 3.8 0.3 4.1 8.7 0.5 2.6 Manufacturing 23.9 15.8 25.6 26.5 13.6 20.0 Construction 4.4 0.8 9.2 8.0 1.3 6.2 Transport, Communication 15.4 4.0 11.0 20.6 4.5 8.7 & U t i l i t i e s Trade 36.3 17.9 15.9 42.2 18.9 17.4 Finance, Insurance 51.9 6.9 3.2 59.3 8.2 5.3 & Real E s t a t e Community, Business 59.7 46.9 16.1 59.7 43.7 28.4 & Personal Services P u b l i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n 25.3 4.7 7.0 34.8 6.1 6.8 A l l I n d u s t r i e s 33.7 100.0 100.0 38.8 100.0 100.0 Average, September to December 1971 2 Annual Average, 1971 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Labour Force Survey. September 1971 to December 1971 and December 1979 Issues. TABL_E_XI Average Weekly Earnings By„Industry £ ,1979 Industry $ per week F o r e s t r y 40 3.71 Mining 444.57 Manufacturing: 323.13 Durable 348.48 Non-durable 301.03 Food 6 beverages 294.15 Tobbacco products 355.13 Rubber products 331.20 Leather products 204.33 T e x t i l e s 263.53 K n i t t i n g 204. 55 C l o t h i n g 193.94 Wood products 334.43 F u r n i t u r e 8 f i x t u r e s 241.12 Paper 382.55 P r i n t i n g S p u b l i s h i n g 303.94 Primary metals 386.33 Metal f a b r i c a t i n g 333.60 Machinery 349.76 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment 368.58 E l e c t r i c a l products 314. 25 Non-metallic minerals 351.98 Petroleum S c o a l products 459.16 Mi s c e l l a n e o u s manufactures 265. 33 C o n s t r u c t i o n 428.79 Transport, Communications, U t i l i t i e s 349.36 Wholesale t r a d e 298.25 R e t a i l t r a d e 187.63 Finance, Insurance, Real e s t a t e 279.46 S e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s 197.79 Source; S t a t i s t i c s Canada, "Employment, Earnings and Hours, December, 1979. . 86 d i v i s i o n s , the three with more than f i f t y percent female employees, show lowest e a r n i n g s . However, because of the g r e a t e r prevalence of part-time labour among female employees, examining such data does not permit v a l i d comparisons t o be made. Hourly wage data are a v a i l a b l e n e i t h e r by i n d u s t r y nor occupation f o r the f u l l range of employment. For a comparable i l l u s t r a t i o n of earnings d i f f e r e n c e s i t i s necessary to examine again 1971 Census d a t a . Table XII shows the average earning of persons who worked mainly f u l l - t i m e f o r the f u l l year 1970, by major o c c u p a t i o n a l groups arranged i n descending order of the average earnings by both sexes. . Earnings i n the major female o c c u p a t i o n s , c l e r i c a l and s e r v i c e , were the lowest of any group except f o r farming. Of course, these aggregate f i g u r e s i l l u s t r a t e o n l y part of the e f f e c t o f o c c u p a t i o n a l s e g r e g a t i o n . The r a t i o of female t o male ear n i n g s i s given i n the f i n a l column, and ranges from 34.3 percent i n Medicine S Health to 70.5 percent i n t e a c h i n g . To an extent, t h i s i s an i l l u s t r a t i o n of the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of women i n the lower pay, lower s k i l l c a t e g o r i e s w i t h i n each group. For example, the l a r g e d i f f r e r e n c e w i t h i n the Medicine and Health occupation d e r i v e s p a r t l y from the f a c t t h a t w i t h i n the h i g h l y paid 'health d i a g n o s t i c and t r e a t i n g ' category, only about 8 percent of workers are female, i n the lower p a i d nursing and r e l a t e d c a t e g o r i e s , over 80 p e r c e n t . s i m i l a r examples could be given i n almost every group. I t i s p r i m a r i l y the e f f e c t s of o c c u p a t i o n a l s e g r e g a t i o n with which we are concerned here, and consequently with such •between-occupation' wage gaps. Even so, i t should be p o i n t e d out t h a t , i n so f a r as the two can be s e p a r a t e d , the r o l e of 87. TABLE X I I .Average Earnings f o r Persons Who Worked Mainly F u l l Time f o r the F u l l  Year 1970, by Occupation and Sex. Average Earnings Female Female Earning ($ per year) Employees Male Earning Occupation Both Sexes ; Male Female (%) Managerial, A d m i n i s t r a t i v e 13157 14058 7193 46035 51.2 S o c i a l Sciences & Related 12295 14596 7377 17180 50.5 Mining, Quarrying 10775 10775 -N a t u r a l Sciences, Engineering 10385 10437 6693 2485 64.1 Medicine & Health 9000 16437 5641 155885 34.3 Teaching & Related 8828 10507 7403 124985 70.5 Other C r a f t s , n.e.c. 7929 8304 4386 9000 52.8 Construction 7846 7862 5497 2510 69.9 A r t i s t i c , L i t e r a r y 7453 8005 5087 4150 63.6 Machining & Related 7357 7506 4355 9225 58.0 Transport Equipment Operating 7249 7286 4504 3320 61.8 Sales 7244 8158 3756 95310 46.0 F o r e s t r y & Logging 6893 6914 4178 220 60.4 Processing 6726 7134 4087 33765 57.3 Product F a b r i c a t i o n & Assembling 6532 7238 3702 100555 51.2 M a t e r i a l s Handling 6427 6960 3968 22800 57.0 Service . 5575 6685 3326 193920 49.7 C l e r i c a l & Related 5558 7059 4699 601190 66.6 Farming, H o r t i c u l t u r e , 3960 4033 2661 15310 66.0 Animal Husbandry Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada,, 1971 Census. Volume 3 Part 6 Table 18, 88 • w i t h i n - o c c u p a t i o n • wage gaps remains l a r g e , d e s p i t e the advent of equal pay l e g i s l a t i o n . The 1977 i s s u e of "Women i n the Labour F o r c e : F a c t s and F i g u r e s " l i s t s , f o r s e l e c t e d o c c upations, narrowly d e f i n e d , average male and female wage r a t e s f o r 1976 and 1977. In the f i r s t year, the male wage r a t e exceeded the femal i n 48 of 52 occupations, i n the second year, i n 46 of 58. In a number of i n s t a n c e s , the female:male wage r a t i o was i n the order of 65 percent and, i n almost h a l f the c a s e s , i t a c t u a l l y d e c l i n e d between the two years. From such data, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to a s s e s s the c o n t r i b u t i o n of d i f f e r e n c e s i n e x p e r i e n c e , e d u c a t i o n and other f a c t o r s not d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o sex to the d i s c r e p a n c y . However, d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s suggest the r o l e of d i s c r i m i n a t i o n to be c o n s i d e r a b l e . Gunderson (1977), using 1971 Census d a t a , decomposed the earnings d i f f e r e n t i a l i n t o • p r o d u c t i v i t y r e l a t e d ' and 'wage d i s c r i m i n a t i o n * f a c t o r s . E s t i m a t i n g the former i n v o l v e d c o n t r o l l i n g f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n , among other t h i n g s , e d u c a t i o n , t r a i n i n g , e x p e r i e n c e , and o c c u p a t i o n a l and i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s , at l e a s t a p o r t i o n of which might be c l a s s i f i e d as r e f l e c t i n g the r e s u l t s of cumulative d i s c r i m i n a t i o n . These f a c t o r s together accounted f o r a l i t t l e over one t h i r d of the d i f f e r e n t i a l , with the d i s t r i b u t i o n c o n t r i b u t i n g about one-half of t h i s f r a c t i o n . The remaining t w o - t h i r d s was a t t r i b u t a b l e t o d i f f e r e n t rewards f o r comparable endowments, a r e s u l t b r oadly comparable with those of 89 previous s t u d i e s i n the United S t a t e s and Canada. * Apart from the p r e v a l e n c e of low wages, women's jobs are l i k e l y t o be c h a r a c t e r i s e d by a low degree of c o n t r o l over work pr o c e s s e s , and by poor o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r advancement. Marchak (1973) sampled 307 white c o l l a r workers i n B r i t i s h Columbia, measuring e i g h t dimensions of work i n which workers c o u l d have d i f f e r e n t amounts of c h o i c e , d i s c r e t i o n or c o n t r o l over t h e i r jobs. Each measure showed women to be over-represented at the lower end of the s c a l e , men at the upper. A much s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n of women than of men f e l t t h a t they c o u l d r e l i s t i c a l l y expect s i g n i f i c a n t promotion, though the major i t y d e s i r e d i t . . Connelly(1978) suggests t h a t the female occupations .. . p r o v i d e h o r i z o n t a l r a t h e r than v e r t i c a l c a r e e r p a t t e r n s f o r women; t h a t i s , women continue to tea c h , nurse and type, with i n c r e a s e s i n pay but not promotions, (p.42.) and, as Gunderson (1976) comments, Many of the predominantly female occupations have been c h a r a c t e r i z e d as dead-end jobs; they are not conducive t o ca r e e r advancement or to independent decision-making, and few are st e p p i n g stones to more c h a l l e n g i n g jobs. In a d d i t i o n , many jobs, such as cooking, c l e a n i n g or t a k i n g c a r e o f c h i l d r e n , are e x t e n s i o n s of household a c t i v i t i e s , (p. 113.) a study i n Whitehorse, a c i t y with a r e l a t i v e l y high demand f o r labour i n c l e r i c a l and s e r v i c e occupations, and a high * Although both i n d u s t r i a l and o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n made a c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n t r i b u t i o n t c the ea r n i n g s gap, i n another study (Gunderson, 1977) the author p o i n t s out that merely c o r r e c t i n g f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n broad category does not i n i t s e l f i t s e l f l e a d to a r e d u c t i o n i n the o v e r a l l e arnings gap, s i n c e t h i s would i n v o l v e s h i f t i n g female employees from c l e r i c a l and t e a c h i n g o c c u p a t i o n s where the gap i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l , t o primary and blue c o l l a r o c cupations where i t i s l a r g e . 90 p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e , r e v e a l e d that the l i m i t e d range of jobs a v a i l a b l e was i t s e l f a major source of d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n among women. Although most women co n s i d e r e d market work a n e c e s s i t y due to the high c o s t of l i v i n g , the only jobs e f f e c t i v e l y open to them were i n these low paid and low r e s p o n s i b i l i t y jobs. Even where women were employed o u t s i d e the t r a d i t i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s , t h e i r employment was g e n e r a l l y c o n f i n e d to r o u t i n e and p o o r l y paid jobs u n a t t r a c t i v e to male workers. (Women's Research Centre, 1979). Thus i t seems t h a t , where women are d e t e r r e d from p a r t i c i p a t i n g by a shortage of 'female' jobs, the mere p r o v i s i o n of such jobs would provide at best a p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n t o the problem, perhaps a t t r a c t i n g women i n t o the labour f o r c e but, unless combined with an a c t i v e commitment to the p r i n c i p l e s of equ a l o p p o r t u n i t y and equal pay ' f o r work of equal v a l u e ' , tending t o perpetuate the r e l a t e d problems a s s o c i a t e d with o c c u p a t i o n a l s e g r e g a t i o n . Segtion_3^_Suggestions Eor_,Futare_Data j g o l l e ^ t i g n And Research. Many of the s t a t i s t i c a l problems encountered c o u l d have been reduced or e l i m i n a t e d by the use of data p r o v i d i n g d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on i n d i v i d u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and hence a l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s of the i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n d e c i s i o n r a t h e r than of p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . T h i s was the procedure f o l l o w e d by Gunderson (1977) and by Nakamura et a l (1979), as well as a number of s t u d i e s i n the United S t a t e s . The c u r r e n t p o l i c y o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada i s to r e l e a s e such data from the Census with geographic i n f o r m a t i o n l i m i t e d to province and pl a c e o f 9 1 r e s i d e n c e . Thus t h e r e i s n e c e s s a r i l y a p r o b l e m i n c a r r y i n g o u t a s t u d y o f t h i s t y p e s i n c e t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f a homogeneous r e g i o n a l l a b o u r m a r k e t , i m p l i c i t l y made i n t h e s t u d y by Nakamura e t a l , seems s c a r c e l y j u s t i f i e d . I t would n o t seem u n r e a s o n a b l e t o s u g g e s t t h a t t h e c o n f i d e n t i a l i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada might be c o m p a t i b l e w i t h a somewhat more p r e c i s e g e o g r a p h i c i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , a t l e a s t f o r r e s i d e n t s o f C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s . I t w ould a l s o be u s e f u l t o r e l a t e changes i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n o v e r t i m e t o c h a n g e s i n i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . A g a i n , t h e e x t e n t t o w hich t h i s i s p o s s i b l e on any s y s t e m a t i c b a s i s i s l i m i t e d by c u r r e n t d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y . I n v i e w o f t h e p e r i o d i c c h a n g e s i n C e n s u s g u e s t i o n s , d e f i n i t i o n s and d a t a p r e s e n t a t i o n , c o m p a r i s o n o f d e c e n n i a l C e n s u s d a t a would be u n l i k e l y t o p r o v i d e more t h a n an i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h e o b v i o u s f a c t t h a t , a s t h e demand f o r f e m a l e l a b o u r has i n c r e a s e d , so has f e m a l e p a r t i c i p a t i o n . . Two S t a t i s t i c s Canada p u b l i c a t i o n s : The L a b o u r F o r c e S u r v e y and Employment, E a r n i n g s and Hours would p r o v i d e some o f t h e r e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n , b u t the a v a i l a b i l t y o f c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s would be v e r y l i m i t e d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e l a t t e r p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m l a r g e r f i r m s o n l y , and n e i t h e r p r o v i d e s a d e t a i l e d breakdown o f employment by i n d u s t r y f o r s u b - p r o v i n c i a l a r e a s . . C o n c e r n i n g a l l a s p e c t s of l a b o u r s u p p l y , i n c l u d i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n , one i s s t r u c k by t h e g r e a t e r s o p h i s t i c a t i o n o f e c o n o m i c r e s e a r c h i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s which i s p e r m i t t e d by t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d e t a i l e d d a t a c o n c e r n i n g t h e b e h a v i o u r o f i n d i v i d u a l s o v e r t i m e s u c h a s e x i s t i n t h e N a t i o n a l L o n g i t u d i n a l 92 Survey. These have been used, alone or with t a x a t i o n s t a t i s t i c s , i n a v a r i e t y of p r o j e c t s . The absence of such a data source, has presented a c o n s t r a i n t to economic rese a r c h on the s u b j e c t i n Canada, I t may be, however, t h a t t h e r e i s l e s s to be l e a r n e d from s o p h i s t i c a t e d q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s than from more g e n e r a l s t u d i e s at the l o c a l labour market l e v e l . From sample surveys, i t would be p o s s i b l e to make some assessment of the magnitude of d i s g u i s e d unemployment and underemployment among women i n an a r e a , r e l a t i n g these problems t o s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the area's i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e and so provide a b a s i s f o r the f o r m u l a t i o n of c o r r e c t i v e p o l i c y measures. Such s t u d i e s c o u l d form a b r i d g e between two r e s e a r c h approaches t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n now l a r g e l y d i s t i n c t : the t e c h n i c a l and somewhat a b s t r a c t e d economic s t u d i e s i n the consumer choice framework, viewing labour supply d e c i s i o n s as a r a t i o n a l response to i n d i v i d u a l c o s t s and b e n e f i t s , and the more q u a l i t a t i v e and d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d i e s which have focussed on women's problems i n the l a b o u r market, w i t h i n a t r a d i t i o n which sees such ' d e c i s i o n s ' as, i n l a r g e p a r t , s o c i e t a l l y imposed. 93 BIBLIOGRAPHY A l l i n g h a m , J o hn D. (a) The Dem o g r a p h i c , B a c k g r o u n d , to_ Change . i n t h e Numbers_and C o m p o s i t i o n o f Female Wage E a r n e r s i n Canada 1951 t o , 1 9 6 1 . 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D e t e r m i n a n t s . . o f t h e P a r t i c i p a t i o n R ate o f M a r r i e d Women i n t h e C a n a d i a n L a b o u r F o r c e : An E c o n o m e t r i c A n a l y s i s . O t t a w a : I n f o r m a t i o n Canada, 1974. S p e n c e r , B y r o n . G. And D e n n i s c . F e a t h e r s t o n e , F e m ale L a b o u r _ F o r c e P a r t i c i p a t i o n : A M i c r o S t u d y . Queen's P r i n t e r , 1970. Swan, N e i l M. . "The Response o f L a b o u r S u p p l y t o Demand i n C a n a d i a n R e g i o n s " C a n a d i a n . , J g u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s v o l . 7 , no.3, August *974. S w i d i n s k y , R o b e r t . Unemployment and L a b g u r . F o r c e . P a r t i c i ^ a t i p n : T h e ^ C a n a d i a n E x p e r i e n c e . D i s c u s s i o n p a p e r no. 16, D e p a r t m e n t o f E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 196 9. V e i t , , S u z a n n e , Women_in M i n i n g : A n , E x p l o r a t o r y S t u d y . P r e p a r e d f o r B.C. D e p a r t m e n t o f E c o n o m i c Development, B.C. Manpower Sub-committee on N o r t h - e a s t C o a l D e v e l o p m e n t , 1976. Women's R e s e a r c h C e n t r e . . Beyond t h e . P i p e l i n e . : R e p o r t P r e p a r e d f o r t h e N o r t h e r n P i p e l i n e Agency. . V a n c o u v e r , 1979. Taux de C a n a d i a n M a r r i e d O t t a w a : A l l Women 15-64 Married Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-64 Married Women 15-24 Married Women 25-44 Married Women 45-64 DATL -2.618 (1.59) -4.152 (2.40) -2.915 (1.01) 4.171 (0.94) -6.046 (3.88) -3.996 (2.49) -1.845 (0.36) DQUE -1.315 (0.85) -4.511* (6.02) 2.522 (1.46) -6.166* (4.36) -4.446 (3.79) -5.303* (7.16) -1.752 (0.52) DpRA -2.845* (4.87) -4.037* (5.91) -2.119 (1.38) 0.761 (0.08) -1.714 (0.67) -4.249* (6.49) -1.484 (0.69) DBC -4.425 (10.61) -6.919* (15.63) -1.701 (0.75) 2.384 (0.72) -6.867* (9.95) -6.740* (13.01) -2.469 (2.06) DCMA -0.142 (0.03) -1.021 (0.81) 0.966 (0.54) -2.324 (1.63) -1.364 (0.81) -1.062 (0.83) -1.023 (0.58) D2550 1.624 (2.58) 1.900 (2.13) 0.971 (0.43) 0.227 (0.01) 1.405 (0.63) 2.059 (2.34) 1.825 (1.41) D1025 1.291 (1.37) 2.463 (3.01) -2.325 (2.38) 2.233 (0.96) -0.477 (0.06) 2.293 (2.49) 3.731* (4.97) D 510 -5.125* (7.97) -6.109* (6.83) -5.766* (4.90) 0.690 (0.03) -10.031* (10.27) -7.051* (8.35) -2.501 (0.80) MUR -0.128 (0.74) -0.289 (2.27) 0.011 (0.00) -0.439 (2.04) -0.306 (1.39) -0.275 (1.91) -0.321 (2.04) FUR -0.667* (14.22) -0.679* (8.87) -0.318 (1.77) -Oi'470 (1.65) -0.783* (7.28) -0.584* (6.16) -0.744* (8.21) PCMFT70 ,0.047 (0.22) 0.130 (1.01) 0.171 (2.47) . 0.825* (15.83) 0.119 (0.60) 0.166 (1.80) 0.163 (1.22) AVFWAG -0.002 (2.31) 0.001 (0.26) -0.005* (7.35) 0.005 (2.96) 0.001 (0.11) 0.002 (0.80) W).000 CO.02) AVEMMY -0.002 (2.90) -0.004* (9.38) -0.004* (4.40) -0.002 (1.40) -0.003* (5.80) -0.003* (7.35) PCSCHFT -0.419 (1.56) -0.394 (0.83) -1.415* (18.60) -1.092 (2.47) -0.806 (3.71) -0.416 (1.48) 0.580 (1.89) PCTCHDN 0.038 (0.06) -0.021 (0.01) -0.587 (0.03) -0.114 (0.19) -0.120 (0.34) 0.374 (1.89) PCTNOCH -0.046 (0.01) -0.115 (0.05) 0.090 (0.01) -0.225 (0.12) -0.124 (0.06) 0.008 (0.00) FERTxx -0.005 (3.27) -0.004 (1.92) -0.005 (0.79) -0.019* (8.66) -0.002 (0.47) -0.007* (10.57) PCTOTH 0.143* (7.55) 0.158* (5.55) 0.112 (2.23) 0.091 (0.71) -0.027 (0.09) 0.175* (6.58) 0.209* (6.88) X X F E D 1 2 0.361* (20.55) 0.395* (14.80) 0.182 (2.78) 0.428* (6.75) 0.179 (3.68) 0.319* (12.66) 0.403* (8.73) xxxFUNI 0.352 (2.00) 0.443 (1.76) 1.001* (8.40) 0.418 (0.79) 0.567* (5.74) 00.180 (0.47) 0.194 (0.19) INDMIX 0.314* (5.21) 0.111 (0.39) 0.244 (1.83) 0.086 (0.09) 0.394 (2.63) 0.198 (0.91) 0.173 (.0.86) CONSTANT 63.346 63.920 68.149 27.474 74.148 51.401 48.618 R 2 .910 .895 .779 .894 .819 .873 .895 FIGURES IN PARENTHESES SHOW F VALUES, COEFFICIENTS MARKED '*' ARE SIGNIFICANT A l l Women 15-64 Married Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-64 Marr i e d Women 15-24 Married Women 25-44 Married Women 45-64 DATL -1.446 (0.59) -1.780 (0.45) 6.170 (2.11) -7.800* (5.56) -3.072 (1.73) 0.221 (0.01) DQUE -0.559 (0.15) - 4.881* (5.64) - 9.001* (7 . 4 9 ) -3.631 (1.7.5) -5.536* (6.25) -1.984 (0.46) DPRA -3.594* (5.39) -3.049 (1.96) -0.097 (0.00) -0.593 (0.04) -3.260 (2.40) -1.258 (0.23) DBC -4.788* (12.51) -5.944* (9.72) 2.739 (0.81) -5.388* (5.19) -5.605* (8.68) -2.531 (1.50) DCMA 0.165 (0.03) -0.517 (0.12) -1.459 (0.38) -1.216 (0.34) -0.579 (0.16) -0.554 (0.09) D2550 1.622 (2.31) 2.270 (2.28) 1.330 (0.31) 0.298 (0.02) 2.371 (2.54) 2.243 (1.44) D1025 2.065 (3.97) 3.677* (6.34) 3.255 (1.94) -1.423 (0.47) 3.057* (4.31) 5.290* (8.89) D510 -4.261* (9.31) -4.261* (4.69) 3.584 (1.30) -11.312* (15.64) -5.590* (8.19) -0.519 (0.04) MUR -0.060 (0.22) -0.207 (1.38) -0.162 (0.33) -0.381 (2.39) -0.232 (1.78) -0.238 (1.18) FUR -0.578* (14.29) -0.582* (7.30) -0.434 (1.58) -0.851* (8.95) -0.449* (4.57) -0.663* (6.48) PCMFT70 -0.099 (1.41) -0.064 (0.30) 0.839* (20.10) -0.014 (0.01) 0.024 (0.05) -0.108 (0.64) AVFWAG -0.004* (8.24) -0.002 (1.24) 0.002 (0.37) -0.001 (0.08) -0.001 (0.41) -0.003 (1.71) AVEMMY PCSCHFT -0.467 (2.18) -0.369 (0.69) -1.205 (2.87) -0.591 (1.73) -0.362 (1.15) 0.632 (1.88) PCTCHDN -0.081 (0.36) -0.219 (1.36) -0.414 (1.88) -0.296 (1.37) -0.232 (1.70) 0.159 (0.30) PCTNOCH -0.425 (1.60) -0.526 (1.23) -0.821 (1.18) -0.400 (.0.37) -0.256 (0.30) -0.756 (1.49) FERTxx -0.005* (4.38) -0.004 (1.66) -0.001 (0.08) -0.009 (2.11) -0.001 (0.14) -0.009* (12.23) PCTOTH 0.164* (8.93) 0.165* (4.56) 0.070 (0.32) -0.088 (0.64) 0.193* (6.64) 0.155 (2.13) xxFEDl2 0.421* (23.35) 0.431* (12.37) 0.453* (5.34) 0.094 (0.72) 0.336* (.12.06) 0.431* (5.93) xxxFUNI 0.133 (0.32) -0.131 (0.16) -0.104 CO.04) 0.526* (4.28) -0.255 (1.17) -0.344 (0.55) INDMIX 0.417* (16.37) 0.417* (8.25) 0.545* (5.49) 0.533* (6.95) 0.509* (11.47) 0.416* (5.78) CONSTANT 69.555 61.414 14.098 71.962 40.538 63.454 R 2 .898 .864 .871 .782 .851 .849 DATL DQUE DPRA DBC A l l ; Womeii 15-64 Marr i e d Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-64 Married Women 15-24 Married Women 25-44 Married Women 45-64 DCMA 0.170 (0.02) -0.990 (0.44) 1.656 (0.79) -3.252 (1.71) -1.345 (Q.40) -1.092 (0.50) -0.559 (0.10) D2550 , 0.435 (0.16) 0.031 (0.00) -0.198 CO.01) -0.643 (0.07) -0.779 (0.13) 0.572 (0.14) 0.889 (0.26) D1025 0.848 (0.59) 1.758 (1.32) -3.359 C3.81) 1.943 (0.58) -2.103 (.0.95) 1.304 (0.71) 3.354 (3.61) D510 -5.806* (14.76) -7.724* (13.51) -6.643* (.7.39) -1.727 ? (0.24) ^-12.155* (16.84) -8.080* (13.63) -3.474 (1.98) MUR -0.185 (2.34) -0.375* (4.98) -0.147 (0.56) -0.404 (2.09) -0.387 (2.62) -0.363* (4.47) -0.370 (3.66) FUR -0.791* (28.26) -1.044* (25.47) 0.001 (0.00) -0.867 (.6.33) -1.088* (15.48) -0.786* (12.90) -0.880* (.13.54) PCMFT70 -0.683 CO.66) 0.075 (0.42) -0.038 CO.14) 1.039* (.28.58) 0.139 (0.99) 0.211* (4.24) 0.036 CO.075) AVFWAG -0.002 (1.68) 0.000 (0..03) -0.001 CO.09) 0.002 (.0.23) 0.002 (0.49) 0.001 CO. 16) -0.000 (0.00) AVEMMY -0.001 (2.05) -0.003* C8.47) -0.005* (8.37) -0.002 (0.97) -0.162 (1.72) -0.003* (7.97) PCSCHFT -0.019 (0.04) 0.148 (P.13) -1.593* (19.29) -1.757* (6.37) -0.357 (0.62) -0.171 (.0.27) 0.784 (3.72) PCTCHDN 0.014 CO. 01) -0.032 (0.03) -0.013 (0.00) -0.348 (1.83) -0.221 (1.41) 0.345 (2.13) PCTNOCH -0.191 CO.33) -0.177 CO.15) -0.124 CO.02) -0.451 (0.52) -0.054 CO. 01) -0.453 (P. 71) FERTxx -0.008* (10.01) -0.008* (5.30) -0.001 (.0.02) -0.015* (7.31) -0.000 (.0.02) -0.009* (.19.13) PCTOTH 0.094* (6:09) 0.136* (6.60) 0.030 CO.22) 0.061 CO.47) 0.032 (.0.16) 0.200* (12.97) 0.109 (2.94) xxFED12 0.362* (25.07) 0.477* (22.50) 0.035 (P. 13) 0.769* (21.03) 0.154 (.2.02) 0.406* (25.51) 0.463* (14.15) xxxFUNI -0.218 (1.88) -0.444* (4.05) 0.901* (12.48) 0.728 (.3.92) 0.104 (0.25) -0.589* (9.61) -0.353 (1.19) INDMIX 0.391* (12.45) 0.148 CO.92) 0.342* (4.63) -0.349 (.1.85) 0.492 (3.79) 0.417* (5.01) 0.178 (.1.04) CONSTANT 72.470 76.131 61.449 50.930 71.559 32.109 69.541 R 2 .884 .850 .614 .846 .755 .828 .858 o a H-cf (+ H-D _J CD VQ H-O 3 P> O C a a >< < P> H H-cr p-1 ro cn CO DATL DQUE DPRA DBC DCMA D2550 D1025 D510 MUR FUR PCMFT70 AVFWAG AVEMMY PCSCHFT PCTCHDN PCTNOCH FERTxx PCTOTH xxFED12 xxxFUNI INDMIX CONSTANT R 2 o A l l Women 15-64 Married Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-64 Married Women 15-24 Married Women 25-44 Married Women 45-64 B H -r+ r+ H-B n r r -2.093 (.0.81) -3.741 (1.41) -3.014 (0.89) 3.167 (0.53) -6.715 (3.18) -2.903 (1.03) -3.391 (1.14) -1.629 (0.96) -6.573* (8.49) 6.126* (6.58) -9.753* (9.80) -5.010 (2.75) -7.405* (8.35) -4.542 (2.51) CO H -N (t> O C S C3 -4.278* (5.29) -4.253 (2.84) -6.693* (6.81) -0.852 (0.06) -2.375 (0.54) -3.549 (1.96) -2.562 (0.94) -3.881* (6.32) -4.700* (5.05) -4.497* (4.62) 3.198 (1.23) -4.938 (3.60) -3.267 (2.25) -1.112 (0.30) CS < H (D -0.033 (0.52) -0.520* (8.20) 0.021 (0.04) -0.002 (1.64) . -0.001 (0.48) -0.198 (0.29) -0.145 (0.74) -0.659 C2-.70) -0.005 (3.07) 0.147* (5.54) 0.334* (10.89) 0.251 (.0.73) 0.555* (17.07) -0.115 -0.052 (0.35) (0.07) : -0.550 -0.038 (4.99) (0.03) 0.125 0.099 (0.88) (0.98) 0.001 -0.004 (0.23) (3.99) -0.002 (3.23) -0.029 -1.733* (0.50) (21.31) -0.229 (1.01) -0.749 (1.90) -0.005 (1.49) 0.110 0.223* (.1.69) (6.51) 0.316* 0.190 (5.29) (2.11) 0.120 1.642* (0.09) (17.71) 0.467* 0.235 (6.56) (1.90) -0.240 (0.79) -0.547 (2.59) 0.936* (25.89) 0.004 (2.17) 0.004* (4.87) -1.209 (3.06) -0.231 (0.54) -0.655 (0.76) -0.003 (0.23) -0.019 CO.03) 0.431* (5.17) 0.164 (0.09) 0.206 (0.67) -0.221 (0.65) -0.608 (3.59) 0.132 (0.67) 0.000 (0.01) 0.000* (0.01) -0.144 (0.08) 0.354 (1.36) -0.600 (0.65) -0.129 (0.42) -0.368 (2.21) 0.190 (2.32) 0.001 (0.36) 0.001 (0.24) 0.047 (.0.02) -0.395 (3.31) -0.672 (.1.53) -0.202 (0.86) -0.788* (8.44) 0.126 (0.74) 0.002 (0.56) -0.003* (10.36) 0.647 (1.93) 0.284 (0.86) -0.656 (1.05) -0.015* -0.001 -0.008* (4.13) (0.03) (.10.56) -0.033 (0.08) 0.173* (4.10) 0.063 (0.37) 0.049 (0.16) 0.195 (3.17) 0.253 (2.15) 0.567 (3.47) -0.245 (0.66) 0.227 CO.25) 0.844* 0.748* 0.241 59.356 .851 55.545 .816 61.288 .630 34.951 .870 47.785 .705 (13.74) 25.422 .787 (.1.81) 61.560 .833 CD c V) A l l Women 15 -64 Married Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-24 Married Women 15^24 Married Women 25-44 Married Women 45-65 3 t"< O i a P> h H-r+ DATL -2.566 (1.76) -3.958 (2.18) -3.029 (0.98) 4.485 (1.023) -8.310* (6.19) -4.664 (3.72) -0.558 (0.003) DQUE -0.322 (0.05) -4.467* (5.14) 5.533* (5.23) -8.671* (7.061) -3.698 (1.86) -5.594* (6.72) -0.778 (0.073) a o Hi DPRA -4.056* (6.90) -4.099 (3.68) -5.144* (4.13) -0.847 (0.057) -0.911 (0.10) -4.219 (3.91) -1.634 (0.42) H S3 a 3 H X DBC -4.907* (13.63) -6.279* (11.65) -3.844 (3.13) 2.561 (0.71) -5.184* (4.90) -6.305* (10.85) -2.073 (1.07) DCMA 0.090 (0.01) -0.535 (0.14) 0.679 (0.15) -1.538 (0.43) -1.339 (0.43) -0.634 (0.20) -0.538 (0.64) D2550 * 1.274 (1.46) 1.610 (1.22) 0.061 (0.00) 0.808 (0.11) 0.042 (0.00) 1.805 (1.49) 1.466 (4.19) D1025 1.509 (2.04) 2.578 (3.11) -1.700 (0.98) 2.399 (0.98) -1.953 (0.84) 2.397 (2.64) 3.757 (1.14) D510 -5.304* (13.01) -6.272* (9.50) -6.332* (7.23) 2.028 • (0.36) -12.063* (16.50) -7.355* (12.16) -2.749 (1.13) MUR -0.094 (0.60) -0.267 (2.49) -0.034 (0.03) -0.516 (0.58) -0.426 (2.99) -0.289 (2.84) -0.310 (2.13) FUR -0.634* (17.28) -0.692* (10.75) -0.153 CO.43) -0.516 (2.17) -0.894* (9.61) -0.540* (6.55) -0.798* (9.54) PCMFT70 -0.055 (0.08) 0.013 (0.01) 0.008 (0.00) 0.906* (22.62) 0.064 (0.20) 0.077 (0.53) 0.027 (.0.04) AVFWAG -0.002 (0.00) 0.000 (0.01) -0.005* (5.51) 0.003 (1.30) 0.001 (0.18) 0.001 (0.09) -0.000 (0.01) AVEMMY -0.002 CO.00) -0.003* (6.99) -0.002 (1.61) -0.002 (1.10) -0.002 (3.91) -0.003* (5.96) PCSCHFT -0.461 (0.00) -0.338 (0.63) -1.886* (26.77) -1.186 C2.84) -0.614 (1.92) -0.399 (1.49) 0.655 (2.19). PCTCHDN -0.029 (0.05) -0.017 (.0.01) -0.246 CO.58) -0.181 (0.47) -0.. Q80 (.0.18) 0.340 (1.38) PCTNOCH -0.267 (0.64) -0.249 (0.29) -0.586 (0.59) -0.247 (0.14) -0.115 (.0.06) -0.494 ( P . 67) FERTxx -0.006* (6.12) -0.006 C3.52) -0.003 CO.30) -0.011 (3.00) -0.003 (0.99) -0.009* (13.88) PCTOTH 0.149* (7.61) 0.135 (3.27) 0.166 C3.48) 0.049 (0.16) -0.091 (0.69) 0.169* C5.16) 0.149 (2.12) xxFED12 0.419* (24.37) 0.343* (13.64) 0,188 (2.12) 0.451* (3.38) 0.092 CO, 71) 0.350* 0-3,55) 0,456* C7.13) xxxFUNI 0.294 (.1.46) 0.177 (0.28) 1 . 4 4 5 * (.14.42) 0.137 (0.06) 0.612* (5.20) -0.037 ( P . 02) -0.193 CP, 18) LOGINDMIX 9.637* (5.12) 5.283 (.0.80) 1.381 (.0.057) 11.893 C I .48) 14.643 (3.14) 8.727 (1.68) 7.218 (1.27) CONSTANT 51.455 61.619 78.928 -6.705 36.68 34.858 48.414 0.904 .877 .680 .875 .789 a.861 .861 A l l Women 15-64 Married Women 15-64 DATL -21.996* (6.45) -16.552 (1.92) DQUE 8.206 (1.20) 20.229 (3.82) DPRA -3.021 (0.11) 2.348 (0.03) DBC -3.245 (0.12) 0.873 (0.01) DCMA -0.433 (0.17) -1.215 (0.72) D2550 0.630 (0.37) 0.952 (0.44) D1025 0.724 (0.49) 1.648 (1.33) D510. -6.583* -7.984 MUR FUR PCMFT70 AVFWAG AVEMMY PCSCHFT PCTCHDN PCTNOCH FERTxx PCTOTH xxFED12 xxxFUNDI INDMIX INDATL INDQUE (19.33) -0.132 (0.97) -0.598* (15.79) -0.044 (0.27) -0.002 (3.19) -0.002* (4.34) -0.806* (6.31) 0.178 (1.35) 0.011 (0.00) -0.005* (4.89) 0.146* (7.28) 0.451* (29.35) 0.167 (0.49) 0.292 (2.43) -0.289 (2.42) -0.673* (10.51) L0.073 (0.38) -0.000 (0.02) S i n g l e Women 15-64 -11.104 (0.59) -13.523 (1.07) -11.267 • (0.49) =16.007 (1.00) 0.689 (0.13) 0.091 (0.00) -1.575 (0.79) -5.943* C5.74) -0.078 (0.12) -0.114 (0.21) -0.021 (0.04) -0.004 (3.77) Other Women 15-64 15.517 (0.56) 9.858 (0.30) -18.321 (0.70) 1.321 (0.00) -1.823 (0.54) 1.055 (0.18) 2.315 (0.87) 2.180 (0.37) -0.012 (0.00) -0.630 (3.05) Marr i e d Women 15-24 -21.081 (1.38) 14.932 (1.03) -6.146 (0.11) 3.105 (0.03) -1.782 (0.67) -0.528 (0.06) -2.794 (1.67) Mar r i e d Women 25-44 -11.436 (0.87) 27.460* (7.01) 14.304 (1.28) -2.242 (0.03) -1.280 (0.80) 1.199 CO. 71) 1.533 (1.17) Married Women 45-64 -26.082 (2.97) 16.669 (1.83) -1.302 (0.01) 8.070 (0.25) -1.434 (0.61) 0.398 CO.05) 2.420 CI.76) 0.581* (5.36) -0.239 (1.33) -0.003* (8.24) -0.907* (4.19) 0.145 (0.47) 0.093 (0.04) -0.004 (1.71) 0.162* (4.73) 0.501* (18.98) -0.009 (0.00) 0.403 C2.42) 0.383 (1.22) -0.691* (5.84) 1.027* (25.50) 0.003 (0192) -0.003 (2.18) -1.765* (20.56) 0.139 (2.20) 0.171 (1.67) 1.561* (15.32) -0.255 (0.74) 0.227 (0.28) 0.538 (2.21) -1.430 (3.45) -0.272 (0.55) -0.501 (0.35) -0.002 (0.15) 0.090 (0.48) 0.501* (6.27) 0.103 (0.03) 0.476 (1.12) -0.321 (0.29) -0.506 (1.04) -13.396* (18.11) -0.364 CI.63) -0.928* (9.66) 0.108 (0.50) 0.001 (0.10) -0.002 (1.68) -1.005* (4.19) -0.037 (0.01) 0.044. (0.00) -0.012 (3.20) -0.082 (0.54) 0.120 (1.16) 0.513 (3.36) 0.508 (1.88) 0.380 (.0.51) -0.531 (1.65) -9.724* (20.66) -0.381* (4.12) -0.530* (6.65) 0.117 (1.19) -0.000 (0.06) -0.003* (6.47) -5.157 (3-64) -0.343 (2.06) -0.701* (7.24) 0.095 :(0.42) -0.001 (0.05) -0.003* (7.86) -0.914* -0.038 (6.91) (0.01) 0.205 (0.92) 0.430 (2.05) 0.429 (0.77) -0.146 (0.05) -0.201 (0.20) -0.007* (8.52) 0.195* (7.24) 0.176 (3.01) 0.424* (21.55) 0.559* (10.71) -0.084 (0.12) -0.328 (0.53) 0.610* (4.72) 0.164 (0.22) -0.911* (10.44) 0.262 (0.79) 0.768 (2.89) -0.497 (2.05) INDRRA -0.010 (.0.00) -0.177 (0.23) 0.186 (0.16) INDBC -0.041 (0.19) -0.194 (.0.23) 0.360 (0.51) CONSTANT 70.426 58.871 89.500 R 2 .916 .892 .689 0.485 (.0.58) 0.156 (0.08) -0.550 (2.19) 0..002 (0.00) 0.053 (.0.06) -0.242 (0.16) -0.09.0 (0.05) -0.321 (0.39) 16.495 70.618 37.328 59.957 .880 .797 .883 .876 A l l Women 15-64 Married Women 15-64 S i n g l e Women 15-64 Other Women 15-64 Married Women 15-24 Married Women 25-44 Married Women 45-64 INDATL -0.050 (0.78) -0.100 (1.69) -0.091 (1.04) 0.097 (0.58) -0.234* (5.58) -0.135 (3.95) .0.010 (0.01) INDQUE -0.014 (0.13) -0.140* (7.06) 0.157* (5.77) -0.262* (8.90) -0.121 (2.56) -0.187* (10.70) -0.034 (0.18) INDPRA -0.115* (6.43) -0.117 (3.60) -0.148* (4.11) -0.008 (0.01) -0.036 (0.19) -0.130* (4.49) -0.045 (0.39) INDBC -0.160* (13.93) -0.197* (11.44) -0.125 (3.35) 0.104 (1.16) -0.172* (5.19) -0.192* (10.16) -0.080 (1.511) DCMA 0.405 (0.15) -0.277 (0.04) 1.019 (0.34) -1.805 (0.06) -0.982 (0.23) -0.358 (0.06) -0.405 (0.05) D2550 1.342 (1.60) 1.692 (1.37) 0.124 (0.01) 0.501 (0.04) 0.264 (0.02) 1.897 (1.70) 1.469 (0.65) D1025 1.517 (2.05) 2.516 (3.05) -1.561 (0.85) 1.868 (0.61) -1.917 (0.81) 2.315 (2.55) 3.659* (4.04) D510 -5.240* (12.69) -6.294* C9.90) -6.200* (7.09) 1.095 (0.11) -11.982* (16.47) -7.333* (12.78) -2.924 (1.31) MUR -0.099 (0.69) -0.262 (2.57) -0.093 (0.25) -0.245 (0.82) -0.396 (2.69) -0.272 (2.73) -0.315 (2.33) FUR -0.613* (15.68) -0.699* (10.12) -0.117 (0.25) -0.544 (2.42) -0.911 (9.92) -0.530* (6.49) -0.768* (8.72) PCMFT70 -0.083 (1.00) 0.000 (0.00) -0.021 (0.05) 0.924* (24.56) 0.060 (0.18) 0.061 (0.35) 0.019 (0.02) AVFWAG -0.002 (2,78) 0.000 (0.02) -0.005* (5.41) 0.003 (1.23) 0.001 CO.25) 0.001 (0.08J 0.000 (0.00) AVEMMY -0.001 (2.87) -0.003* . (6.57) -0.003 (2.23) -0.002 (1.41) -0.002* (4.11) -0.003* (5.87) PCSCHFT -0.418 (1.85) -0.360 (0.74) -1.795* (24.42) -1.331 (3.66) -0.598 (1.79) -0.375 (.1.40) 0.574 (.1.58) PCTCHDN -0.020 (0.02) -0.054 (0.08) -0.134 (0.18) -0.230 (0.74) -0.097 (0.29) 0.256 CO. 81) PCTNOCH -0.396 (1.39) -0.329 (0.52) -0.316 CO.17) -0.352 (0.28) -0.173 (0.15) -0.612 (1.04) FERTxx -0.006* (6.17) -0.006 (3.36) -0.003 CO.28) -0.013 (.3.69) -0.003 (.1.53) -0.008* (11.93) PCTOTH 0.150* (8.47) 0.135 (3.73) 0.156 (3.52) 0.023 (0.04) -0.090 (0.72) 0.168* (5.85) 0.152 C2.45) xxFED12 0.425* (26.19) 0.435* (14.82) 0.197 (2.54) 0.450* (5.74) 0.096 (0.78) 0.334* (13.40) 0.467* (7.43) xxxFUNI 0.211 (0.73) 0.102 (0.09) 1.469* (5.08) 0.152 (0.07) 0.615* (4.97) -0.068 (0.08) -0.251 (P.30) INDMIX 0.345* (7.30) 0.276 (2.52) 0.027 CO.02) 0.373 (1.67) 0.466 (3.43) 0.398* C4.33) 0.229 (1.34) CONSTANT 76.013 72.249 82.65 20.729 77.148 56.007 67.343 R 2 .902 .879 .683 .876 .786 .828 .862 H • H -0> cr c H cn fD H -cn 3 so fD u a H -o s X H 3 PJ C cn r+ H >~< 3 H -X 3 r+ fD H P> O r+ H* O 3 H3 CD •i B cn S3 H-r+ O r+ O C 3 -i S O ^ NJ 

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