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The theory and practice of conducting local housing needs studies : a framework for the assessment of… Maass, Barbara Ellis 1980

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THE THEORY STUDIES:  AND P R A C T I C E OF CONDUCTING  L O C A L HOUSING  A FRAMEWORK FOB THE A S S E S S M E N T OF HOUSING CANADIAN  CITIES  by  B ABB AH A E L L I S McGill  A THESIS  MAASS  University,  1977  SUBMITTED I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L L M E N T  OF  THE R E Q U I R E M E N T S FOE THE DEGREE OF MASTER  OF  ARTS  in THE F A C U L T Y School  o f Community  We a c c e p t to  THE  OF GRADUATE  this  STUDIES  and R e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g  thesis  the reguired  as  conforming  standard  U N I V E B S I T Y OF B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A October,  (t)  Barbara  Ellis  1980  M a a s s , 1980  NEEDS  NEED I N  In  presenting  this  an a d v a n c e d  degree  the  shall  I  Library  f u r t h e r agree  for  scholarly  by  his  of  this  thesis at  the U n i v e r s i t y  make  that  it  purposes  written  for  freely  permission may  representatives. thesis  in p a r t i a l  is  financial  of  British  available  for  for extensive  be g r a n t e d  It  fulfilment of  by  shall  requirements  Columbia,  copying  of  that  not  copying  this  or  , Community a n d R e g i o n a l  of  University  of  British  2075 W e s b r o o k P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1W5  October  6, 1980.  Columbia  that  thesis or  publication  be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t  Planning  for  study.  permission.  Department  Date  agree  r e f e r e n c e and  Barbara  The  I  t h e Head o f my D e p a r t m e n t  understood  gain  the  Maass  my  i i  ABSTRACT The  objective  of  framework, t o a i d h o u s i n g studies  f o r Canadian  housing authors  needs  actually author  have  of  of  1)  examination  of  needs s t u d i e s , authors,  define to  and  to  how  important  the  and  be  thesis  of  on  local various  how  the  The  considered i n  implications  of  issues.  i s derived  Canadian  topic,  from 2)  local  an  housing  a g u e s t i o n n a i r e sent  and/or  they  areas..  to deal with these  completed  needs  the or  need,  2)  of  planning  to  the  directors  of  needs  the  local  local  considerations, i t i s ambiguous  of the  data  conditions,  The  need.  Although  housing i t  was  ( a u t h o r s do  conducted),  2)  current  needs study found not  1)  to  need,  3)  the  5)  to  foster  literature  wanting  i t does not  growing  highlights  always  a i s  t o meet t h e  governments i n housing,  of  study  purposes:  concerning 4)  provides  residents  region.  following  t c provide  housing  s t u d i e s s h o u l d be  i s a r e p o r t which  metropolitan  local  a  study  shelter  or more  conduct  respects—1)  what  urban  should  needs  studies.  housing  alleviate tc  Canadian  i n the  results  housing  conducted,  comments upon t h e  directors,  relevance to  responsibilities  on  the  concerning  housing  ensure  action  3)  practical  are conducted,  literature  ten recently  f o r one  in  developed  current  municipality,  conducted  be  methods a v a i l a b l e  of  local  information town,  s t u d i e s and  f o r the  A  should  local  a  examines  they  major i s s u e s which  research  responsible  why  they  framework  review  i s to provide  thesis  conducted  the  alternative  a  The  are,  t o how  such  The  cities.  been  identifies  completion use  as  thesis  planners to conduct  studies  views  1  this  in agree  fully  some three  on  take  how into  i i i  account such  the  practical  studies,  and  topics  related  part  the  to  local  variety  of  housing  these  this  The  study  t o be  judgements,  analysis,  by  The  ten  advantages employ  "When view  and  of  success  to t h e i r  a  local  this  author  of  local  a  which  housing  to the  Content  chapter  t h a t an  needs study  information  decide to  what e x t e n t  resources  to  should  distinguishes the  type  of  value  related  to  demographic stock,  groups,  aspects  of  targets,  c o s t of  acting  Context  Issues  discussed.  The  of  i s  are  methodologies  then  the  successful?"  permit  the  to  outlined.  examines  i s the  be  3  field  models,  appropriate criterion  sufficient  need. .  Issues  a  future  housing  alternative  needs study  provides  housing  4  overall  treatment  of the t h e s i s  housing  housing  of  ten  Chapter  in this  reports (i.e.,  reviewed  in  requirements.  guality  the  the  enable  research  requirements,  studies  need.  Chapter  needs  Due  utilized  Issues"—those  special  research  topic,  have  to  affect  stock,  of  of  experience  in  conducting  study.  this  research  i n the  disadvantages  final  own  "Content  implications  The  order  outlined  housing  with regard  i s  in  recent past  contained  Canadian  on  housing  (i.e. , objectives,  areas  environment,  the  from  affordability,  analysis).  assess  Issues'*—those  quantity  suitability, local  to  format)--and  topic  number  needs s t u d i e s r e v i e w e d  work  produced  planners  of conducting the  of c u r r e n t theory  framework  "Context  specific  process  facing  include a  methodologies  to benefit  t o compare  between  to the  methodologies  researchers and  i t does not  limitations  Canadian  describes  3)  constraints  to  degree the  allocated  guestion It i s  assess  the the  t o which i t  politician to  to  alleviate  xv  T A B L E OF  CONTENTS  Page Chapter I.. II..  III.  1:  Introduction  What i s a L o c a l H o u s i n g N e e d s S t u d y ? Why C o n d u c t a L o c a l H o u s i n g N e e d s S t u d y ? 1. To D e f i n e H o u s i n g N e e d 2 . . To P r o v i d e D a t a C o n c e r n i n g t h e N e e d 3.. To E n s u r e R e l e v a n c e t o L o c a l Conditions 4. To M e e t t h e G r o w i n g R e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s o f L o c a l Governments i n Housing 5. To F o s t e r A c t i o n t o A l l e v i a t e • H o u s i n g Need Thesis Overview 1. Scope and O b j e c t i v e s 2. Methodology 3. Limitations 4. Organization  Chapter  2:  The T h e o r y — R e v i e w o f M e t h o d s From t h e L i t e r a t u r e  1 1 2 2 6 7 8 13 14 14 15 16 17 19  I. . Recommendations from t h e Manuals 1.. G e o g r a p h i c S c o p e 2. Content o f t h e Study 3. Research Models 4.. D e f i n i t i o n o f C o n c e p t s 5. Projections 6. . V a l u e J u d g e m e n t s I I . . Summary o f F i n d i n g s f r o m t h e M a n u a l s III. L i m i t a t i o n s of t h e Theory  20 20 22 24 40 47 49 50 51  Chapter  53  I.  3: The P r a c t i c e — T e n C a n a d i a n L o c a l H o u s i n g Needs S t u d i e s  Practical Constraints 1. Housing Market Areas Rarely Conform t o t h e B o u n d a r i e s c f an Appropriate Jurisdiction 2. Lack of Data 3. . L i m i t e d R e s o u r c e s 4. . I n a d e q u a t e T h e o r y  53 53 54 57 58  V  Page II..  III.  Ten C a n a d i a n L o c a l Housing 1. Halifax 2. Cornwall 3. Victoria 4. Waterloo 5. Winnipeg 6. Vancouver 7. Quebec 8. . Ottawa-Carleton 9. . Alberta 10. Metropolitan Toronto Summary  Chapter  I..  II.  III._  4:  Needs S t u d i e s  A Framework f o r C o n d u c t i n g L o c a l H o u s i n g Needs S t u d i e s  Context Issues 1. . O b j e c t i v e s 2. Research Models 3 . . Value Judgements 4. . Format Content Issues 1 . . Demographic A n a l y s i s 2i Quantity Housing Stock 3.. Q u a l i t y Housing Stock 4.. S u i t a b i l i t y 5.. Affordability 6. S p e c i a l Needs Groups 7.. Aspects of the Local Environment 8. : Housing Requirements 9. > Targets 1 0 . .'.Cost o f A c t i n g A n a l y s i s Summary  Chapter  5:  Conclusions--When i s a L o c a l H o u s i n g Needs S t u d y S u c c e s s f u l ?  59 61 64 68 73 78 82 89 94 100 104 107 111  112 112 114 115 116 117 117 120 121 123 127 131 134 135 139 142 143 145  Bibliography  151  Appendices A. The Q u e s t i o n n a i r e B. Methodology f o r Factoring  157 157 162  Up I n c o m e s  vi  LIST_OF_TABLES  Page 1.  R e g u i r e d Income  Approach--Halifax  2.  Housing  Targets—Cornwall  67  3.  Minimum  Dwelling  Size--Victoria  70  Standard—Victoria  70  Unit  4. . M i n i m u m  Occupancy  5.  Summary  o f Current Housing  6.  Density  Assumptions—Victoria  7.  Future Housing by  9.  10.  Reguirements  71 72 72  Density—Victoria  8. . F u t u r e H o u s i n g by  Needs—Victoria  63  Reguirements  72  Income--Victoria  Housing  Targets f o r Single  Citizen  Households—Waterloo  Occupancy  Senior  Patterns—Winnipeg  11. . F u t u r e H o u s i n g  Occupation—Vancouver  76  81 86  12.  Matching Technigue—Vancouver  87  13..  Summary H o u s i n g  98  14.  Housing  Market  15.  Shelter  Cost/Income R a t i o s - - A l b e r t a  Needs—Ottawa-Carleton Model—Ottawa-Carleton  99 102  vii  LIST  OF  CHARTS  Page 1.  Halifax  61  2.  Cornwall  64  3.  Victoria  68  4.  Waterloo  73  5.  Winn i p e g  78  6. . V a n c o u v e r  82  7.  Quebec  89  8.  Otta wa-Carleton  94  9.  Alberta  10.  Metropolitan  100 Toronto  104  viii  LIST  OF  FIGURES  Page 1.  A.I.P.  Housing  2..  Example  "Supply Framework" T a b l e  28  3..  Example  "Production  30  4.  C C S .  5..  Framework  D.  Model  Housing Summary  Basic  Tables  Requirements" Table  Requirements  Model  27  37 144  ix  ACKNOWLEGEMENTS I  would  encouragement, his  guidance  Corporation responded me  like  and and  to thank  Dr.  understanding; patience;  f o rtheir  Ann M c A f e e f o r h e r E r o f e s s c r Brahm  Canada  financial  t o the questionnaire;  Mortgage  a n d my d e a r  Wiesman f o r  and  aid; the individuals  advice,  Housing  who k i n d l y  friends for  "seeing  through". I  understanding,  dedicate  this  and support  thesis have  to  made t h i s  my  parents  whose  a l l possible.  love,  1  CHAPTER_Ji_INTRODDCTION  Io_. ^ W h a t _ i s _ A . . L o c a l H o u s i n g A local information town,  housing  concerning  municipality  studies  Needs  needs s t u d y  t h eshelter  or  corresponds  purpose  of t h estudy  needs  and  information implement  to  by  housing  of  housing  needs  simple  recent  efforts  therefore, conducting planners  i s to local  field.  review  housing  necessary  i n Canada. .  t o propose  Completing  task.  Local  o p p o r t u n i t y t o compare  both  The  purpose  t h etheory  needs s t u d i e s and  information concerning  considerations study  i s not a  i nthis  This  t h e a r t of conducting  developed.  not had the  housing  and  t h e need.  needs s t u d i e s i s n o t w e l l  have  such  o f study.. The  requirements..  housing  planners  a  whose  of current  t o a i d a government body  the state  study  agency  area  evidence  of  Most o f t e n  government  future  actions to alleviate However,  a  region.  t o t h egeographic  estimate  provides  needs o f t h e r e s i d e n t s  i s t o document  may b e u s e d  i sa r e p o r t which  metropolitan  a r e commissioned  jurisdiction  Study?  of  a  a  local  housing  and c o n t r a s t this  thesis,  and t h ep r a c t i c e o f t o  provide  t h emethodological  t o completing  local  local  housing  and p l a n n i n g  housing  needs  2  . Why C o n d u c t A  a Local  local  Housing  housing  more o f t h e f o l l o w i n g  Needs  Study?  needs study  i s conducted  purposes:  1.  to define housing  2.  t o p r o v i d e d a t a c o n c e r n i n g t h e need  3.  t o ensure  4. t o  meet  f o r one o r  need  relevance to local the  growing  conditions  responsibilities  of  local  governments i n housing 5.  1.  to foster  TO D E F I N E  action  HOUSING  to alleviate  housing  need  NEED  As defined i n most s o c i a l l e g i s l a t i o n , "need" i s a vague c o n c e p t . I t i s oten b u r i e d i n phrases so g l o b a l t h a t i t h a s l i t t l e v a l u e f o r p l a c i n g b o u n d a r i e s on t h e planning task. Alternatively, i t i s employed so narrowly that specific services a r e mandated. The t e r m i s used f r e q u e n t l y by p l a n n e r s and r e s e a r c h e r s a s well as by executives, but i t i s rarely operationalized. A l l t o o often the professional assumes t h a t i t will be understood and t h e r e f o r e reguires l i t t l e explanation. ( M o r o n e y , 1 9 7 7 , p. 133)  Need  i s  a normative  constitutes  need  particular  societal  pp.  changes  134 - 135) s t a t e s  defined--1.  the  environment, The changing  society  of  The d e f i n i t i o n and  i s  standards.  dependant Moroney  influence  living,  o f what  2. t h e  how  ( need  upon IBID i s  sociopolitical  a n d 3. r e s o u r c e s a n d t e c h n o l o g y . concept  and our  expectations  or  time  three factors  standard  standards  technology  over  norms that  concept.  and  as a whcle  of housing  over  time  standard the  need  i s  a  good  a n d among d i f f e r e n t of  standards  living  have  the  Canadian  p l a c e on t h e d e f i n i t i o n  example  of  societies.  As  progressed,  our  government and  of adequate  housing,  3  including altered likely  quality,  suitability,  upward. . appear The  In  very  and a f f o r d a b i l i t y  contrast,  h i g h t o many  distinction  the "Third  between  should  be  clarified..  Andrew  between  t h e two c o n c e p t s as  standards World"  the terms Armitage  criteria, we now  have  employ,  nations. "need"  neatly  and  "want"  distinguishes  follows:  "Want" i m p l i e s a p u r e l y p r i v a t e a s s e r t i o n by a p e r s o n ; "need" adds the notion of necessity and hence o b l i g a t i o n on t h e p a r t o f o t h e r s t o r e s p o n d . However, the "others" are free t o a l l o w or r e j e c t ' t h e need.. Rejection i n effect converts the alleged "need" back to t h e c a t e g o r y o f b e i n g a "want" b e c a u s e no one h a s a g r e e d on i t s n e c e s s i t y , n o r a c c e p t e d a n y obligation.. A l l o w i n g t h e "need" on the o t h e r hand, l e g i t i m i z e d i t . Thus "needs" are the subjects of social and n o t private or individual definition.. (Armitage, 1975, p. 19) Concern to  as e a r l y  Relations  f o r t h e housing needs  a s 1 9 1 9 when t h e  Royal  o f Canadians d a t e s back  Commisssion  on  Industrial  stated:  The high price of b u i l d i n g land and of b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l h a v e made i t i m p o s s i b l e f o r the worker t o provide h i m s e l f w i t h a h o m e , a n d some m e a n s s h o u l d b e adopted, with as l i t t l e delay as p o s s i b l e , to remedy t h i s d e f e c t . . (Canadian C o u n c i l on S o c i a l Development, 1 9 7 7 , p. 1) More  recently,  t h e Canadian government  has stated:  When we t a l k a b o u t ... h o u s i n g , we a r e t a l k i n g a b o u t a n e l e m e n t a l human n e e d — t h e need for shelter, for physical and e m o t i o n a l comfort i n that shelter.. ... g o o d h o u s i n g a t a reasonable cost i s a social right of every citizen of t h i s country. (Basford, M i n i s t e r o f S t a t e f o r Urban A f f a i r s , Commons D e b a t e s M a r c h 1 5 , 1973) r  However, Canada's the  notwithstanding housing  private  considered  stock  sector..  t h e above  has been  guotes, the vast  a n d c o n t i n u e s t o be p r o v i d e d  Housing i n Canada,  a market commodity,  majority of  as opposed  by  f o r t h e most p a r t , i s to  a  basic  need  or  4  right.  Most  housing  market,  purchase  i s  demand, and of  Canadians where t h e  housing,  cannot  regarded  the  cooperative  shelter market  o p e r a t i o n of for  rent  forces  major i n c e n t i v e  the  or  for  of supply for  the  programs  such  capital  cost  Furthermore,  sector continues to  public  solely  as  has  and  and  production  of  as  also the  the  housing of  Assisted  through transit,  the  of  has  the  and total  on  a i d e d the  and  "housing  the private  government (A.R. P.)  and  income  tax.  private  housing  maintenance  community  the  (by  and  federal Program  allowances  development  schools  elements  Rental  sector  housing  h o u s i n g . , The  from  housing  environment  Sector"  public  of  renovation  corporations)  benefitted  public  f o r housing  "Third  most  Thus  neighbourhood  of  depreciation  commodity.  funds  the  build  recognizes that  market  provided  management has  sector a  non-profit  industry  essential  private  development  and  construction  industry  the  i s the  improvement  (N.I.P.).,  public  the  government  (R.B.A.P.),  housing  of  through  units.  Canada's  federal  by  profit  Although  be  housed  price  determined where  housing  are  of  facilities, product".  roads,  which  McAfee  are has  written: As a r e s u l t of t h e q u a l i t i e s i n h e r e n t i n h o u s i n g as a c o m m o d i t y , and t h e s o c i a l a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d t h i s need, t h e h o u s i n g s e c t o r h a s d e v e l o p e d as a b l e n d o f p r i v a t e enterprise and government activity. Neither sector has proved i t s e l f a b l e t o a c t i n d e p e n d e n t l y . (City of V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 7 9 , p. I I - 3 ) Housing  need  authors  distinguish  and  affordability,  3.  1.  has  a  number  structural to  be  of  characteristics.  deficiencies,  the  major  2.  Most  overcrowding,  components of  housing  5  need.  Grigsby  problem  and  f o r low  Rosenburg l i s t  income  12  dimensions  of  the  housing  households:  ... l a c k of adequate housing space, guality and f u r n i s h i n g s ; poor neighborhood environment; excessive housing costs relative to family income; lack of s e c u r i t y of occupancy; restrictions upon choice of tenure; r e s t r i c t e d l o c a t i o n a l c h o i c e ; lack of s p e c i a l housing services for the physically handicapped; r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n ; excessive housing cost r e l a t i v e to quality and guantity of s p a c e r e c e i v e d ; and t h e stigma attached to receiving housing assistance. These dimensions of housing need are but a s m a l l subset of the t o t a l array of d e p r i v a t i o n s which low income f a m i l i e s must e n d u r e . . ( G r i g s b y and R o s e n b u r g , 1975, p..31-32) Each necessarily aspects  of  of  be  these  applicable  housing  particular  to  components  need  local  the  operational costs  variables  Specific  severity  of  definition  relative  t o income)  Difficulties  arise  a  instance, family  single  below  person  the  financial be  often  household  unable  without  set  to  set  their i n the  has  children  household  and,  affordability Similarly,  allocate  foregoing food  standards  standards  i s t h a t no  of  size  with  hardship.  in  may  not  s t u d y , and  those  comprising  of a f f o r d a b i l i t y  25%  family  to  cited  other  may  a  not  be  terms  been  should  uniform  standard, persons of  the  on  on  very  their  housing.  account.  A  expenses  than  may  spend  undergo  severe  low  incomes  income t o  requirements..  i n c o m e a l o n e , do  an  In  into  may  spend  standards..  household  they  to  housing  income  taken  developed  excessive  greater living  guarter  of  of  must  common  household  use  need  example, a  (i.e.,  although  or c l o t h i n g  For  gross  has  housing  need t o be  need e v i d e n c e d .  amount g r e a t e r t h a n  this  addition  need  conditions..  operationalized.  indicate  housing  t o the r e g i o n under  in  Such c o n c e p t u a l be  of  not  may  shelter  Affordability consider  the  6  household's  wealth  particularly the  important  affordability  standards  will  The  need  aspects The  evidenced  2.  to  right.  housing  data  planners and required  insufficient guality  of  environment make  this  to develop  the  compared  available housing  study  uniform  may  address.  of housing  a r e t o be  i s  whereby t h e  to  decide  what  situation.  degree  of  need  standards of  to  concerning housing  assess  local data  concerning  stock,  difficult  of housing  living  Common  public need..  task.  need  which  are outlined  sources i n Chapter  are  Unfortunately,  housing  incomes,  neighbourhood need,  I t i s often  often  necessary  are tailored  are irrelevant  This  actions  of the  c o n d i t i o n s and  data  need  t o enable  households'  aspects of  housing  necessary  what  housing  local  needs s t u d i e s .  information  data. . Standards  to actual  i n Canada  of  NEED  characteristics  a particularly  population..  planners  bulk  alleviate  and other  availability be  the  the  THE  of a l l l o c a l  polticians  to  needs  second,  relevant data  objective  comprises  to  are relevant t o the local  TO P R O V I D E DATA CONCERNING  a common  standard f o r  assessed.  Providing is  be  components t o d e f i n i n g  what a s p e c t s  standards  may  chapters of the thesis..  three  The  need  i s t o develop may b e  This  alternatives  housing  determine  a social  third,  homeownership.  are, therefore,  i s  of  accumulation..  when c o n s i d e r i n g a s u i t a b l e  that the l o c a l  first,  considered  of  capital  be d i s c u s s e d i n l a t e r  There housing  or  i f they  to  cannot  characteristics  available 3..  to  the  of  housing  7  3..  TO E N S U R E  R E L E V A N C E TO L O C A L  A local concentrates incidence  upon  as  housing  of housing  as  needs  need  characteristics  physical,  between  needs s t u d y ,  the  and t y p e s  homogeneous, stock;  housing  CONDITIONS the  of  a  evidenced of  the  term local  suggests, area..  i n Canada  are  population;  socioeconomic, and p o l i t i c a l  The not  housing  environment;  differ  r e g i o n s of the country. Characteristics  according  t o growth  rates  years)  age  elderly  i n Victoria)  housing  composition  and  areas.  the  The age  reflection  of  development,  of the population differ (e.g., C a l g a r y {e.g.,  and  condition  local  areas'  present  high  composition.  cost of l i v i n g  and  vs. Montreal  the relative  ethnic  differs of  the  economic  economic  among  regions  i n  recent  proportion of The  price  of  between housing  market  housing  are  and  stock  social  conditions  history  and  a  and  building  techniques. The these  local  factors  Furthermore, regarding  the  zoning,  availability servicing (e.g.,  of  housing which  study  land  location which  influence  of  affect  for  larger  tends  and  need  i n  the l o c a l e ,  health  area.  of m u n i c i p a l  bylaws  practices;  development  investigate scale.  environment  facilities,  Such  details  the housing  The a v e r a g i n g  t o hide the s p e c i f i c s  the  (including  community  t y p e , and q u a n t i t y o f  future.  account  the  building  residential  schools,  or nation-wide  scale  housing  into  and a s p e c t s o f neighbourhood  by s t u d i e s w h i c h  provincial  can take  can provide d e t a i l s  be c o n s t r u c t e d i n t h e n e a r  provided  needs study  demolition  capability);  centres); to  local  housing  cannot  be  situation  at a  of findings  on a  of l o c a l  housing  need.  8  4.  TO MEET THE GROWING R E S P O N S I B I L I T I E S  OF L O C A L GOVERNMENTS I N  HOUSING According their  the  provinces  and  housing.  However,  has  played  t h e major r c l e  of  housing,  British  the  defining  housing  (C.M.H.C.)  provincial,  have begun  issues  needs s t u d i e s and are  are  Policies"  Wartime  created  to  employees formed  iprior  i n  play  an  as a  housing  increased  provide  o f Canada's  article  Mortgage and (as o f 1978) the  role  housing  levels i n  participation  1970's, of  defining  Local  housing  i n  housing  programs  entitled  which  i n some d e t a i l  "Canadian  Housing  the evolving  role of  since  At t h a t  1941.  Limited,  a f e d e r a l crown c o r p o r a t i o n ,  housing  urgently  required  wartime i n d u s t r i e s .  Wartime  of the National  t o March,  housing  concerns.  discusses  Housing  initiating  programs.  to providing  recently quality  metropolitan  greater  over  on t h e  During  and m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n housing  t o supersede  provisions  Affairs.  well  link  to local  (1969),  provinces  time.  to  t h e important  responsive  as  this  and  very  a n d t h e now d e f u n c t  providing  reflect  Rose,  the  and  until  such a g e n c i e s a s Canada 1  Act, the  jurisdiction  research  policy  f o r Urban  municipal,  government, housing  State  have  i n conducting  Housing  of  America  f e d e r a l government  through  Corporation  North  municipalities  programs i n Canada,  Ministry  2  to  Housing Housing  1979, " C e n t r a l  Ltd.  was  t o accomodate  I n 1 9 4 5 , C.M.H.C.was and t o  A c t (N.H.A.)  administer  the  2  Mortgage and Housing  Corporation"  T h r e e major N a t i o n a l Housing A c t s have been l e g i s l a t e d — i n 1938, 1944, and 1954. E x t e n s i v e a m e n d m e n t s t o t h e 1 9 5 4 N.H.A. w e r e p a s s e d i n 1 9 6 4 , 1S73 a n d 1979..  9  A ... f a c t o r o f c o n s i d e r a b l e importance i n the expansion of the federal role i n theearly postwar y e a r s was t h e o b v i o u s weakness of the provincial governments i n t h e s e new f i e l d s o f u r b a n development. . . . . [ t h e y ] w e r e b y no means p r e p a r e d t o a s s u m e their constitutional responsibilities i n those areas of growth and development comprised by the term "urbanization". Not only were the provincial governments unprepared i n the political and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s e n s e t o p l a y much o f a r o l e i n h o u s i n g policy, but their financial resources were guite i n a d e q u a t e t o m e e t t h e new c h a l l e n g e s t h e y w e r e f o r c e d to f a c e w i t h i n 2 or 3 years after t h e war. (Rose, 1 9 6 9 , p . .79) In  1 9 4 9 , S e c t i o n 35 o f t h e N.H.A. e n t i t l e d  passed  which  s e t out t h e terms  of a  "Public  Housing"  federal-provincial  was  housing  partnership. What, i n fact, became c l e a r s o o n a f t e r e n a c t m e n t o f the f e d e r a l - p r o v i n c i a l partnership l e g i s l a t i o n ...was t h a t t h e f e d e r a l government ... i n t e n d e d t o play a strong and c o n t r o l l i n g role i n t h e development of publicly provided housing accomodation, wherever initiated i n Canada, as seemed t o b e f i t i t s s e n i o r role i n the provision of capital and operating s u b s i d i e s . . ( R o s e , 1 9 6 9 , p . 83)  Not N.H.A. w i t h  respect  participation important  corporation a  i n  the  owned  were  as the  1..loans by  a  housing  authority  ownership  for the  were  the f i r s t  and  housing,  authorized  o r purchase  project;  include  of  of  made  province, municipality  a n d 3. t h e d e f i n i t i o n  levels  changes  provincial  provision  plans;  local  major  increased  for the construction  low-rental  recognized  1964 to  provisions:  corporations  as  until  to  approve  government d i r e c t l y  of  through to  local housing"  into  provisions  or charitable  provincial  urban  for  use  clearly renewal  was r e v i s e d t o which  the f i e l d which  three  non-profit  of housing  by a p r o v i n c e o r m u n i c i p a l i t y ,  establishment  municipal  2. t h e p r o v i n c e s w e r e  of "public  t i m e . , I t was t h e s e  to the  brought  of housing  resulted  non-profit  i n  housing  10  corporations--e.g. , Ontario Scotia  Housing  (1966), and  Societe  Commission  The  of  1973  from  housing  Corporation  (1966),  P.E.I.  d' H a b i t a t i o n d u Q u e b e c  Renewal C o r p o r a t i o n  departure  Housing  past  amendments  to  (1967),  the  federal policies, liveable  first  amendments i n c l u d e d  the  of t h e Neighbourhood  Residential  co-operative Program  government's r o l e funds  and  N.I.P., on-site  administration resource, the  neighbourhoods  ensuring  made  was  the  evaluation  part  criteria  role.  and they  i n N.I.P.  with  (N.I.P.),  Homeownership The f e d e r a l  primarily  federal  but  to  with  provide  regards with  was  to  The  to the  have a  provinces  i n turn identified the  Progress  decisions  involvement  f o r the  for the  (R.R.A.P.),  program.  program,  of  provisions)  Program  For example,  aspects  stated  Assisted  major  terms  was n o t t o be i n v o l v e d  municipalities  the  program  were  confined  were  to  respected  1976) . . Many  the  of  locally,  that  (C. M.H.C.,  housing  programs  and  t o take  the  assembly  s e t program s t a n d a r d s .  designated  be  i n these  i n  (among o t h e r  Assistance  a land  t h e f e d e r a l government  funding,  to  and  a  the social  was e x p l i c i t l y  associations,  (A.H.O.P.).,  Housing  Improvement Program  Rehabilitation  housing  Manitoba  environment,  and community,  introduction  Authority  N.H.A. w e r e  i n that  one's neighbourhood The  Housing  Nova  (1967).  i n providing a  time.  (1964),  Canadian  m u n i c i p a l i t i e s took  programs o f t h e 1950*s and 60's.  1970's  corporations Corporation  that  the  were (1974),  first  i nthe public  However,  i t was d u r i n g  municipal  established—e.g.. Greater  part  Vancouver  non-profit  City  of Toronto  Housing  housing Housing  Corporation  11  (1974), time  City  also,  of  Vancouver  provincial  departments  of  Housing  Corporation  governments formed  housing  cr  uffcan  or  (1974).  expanded  at  this  their  own  affairs.  During the past 6 - 8 years, Ontario, B r i t i s h Columbia and the Prairie Provinces have assumed increasing responsibility for housing, transportation, infrastructure s e r v i c e s and l a n d use c o n t r o l i n t h e i r growing c i t i e s . W h i l e O t t a w a ' s power of t h e p u r s e is s t i l l s i g n i f i c a n t and e s s e n t i a l i n a s s u r i n g b a l a n c e o f concern for solving urban problems and ensuring e c o n o m i c e g u i t y and s o c i a l j u s t i c e , t h e p r o v i n c e s are fulfilling their constitutional obligations and assisting their municipalities to cope with their problems. ( O b e r l a n d e r , 1976, p. 7) Interestingly, initiated  in  provincial  the 1971,  March  was  ministries The  in  federal  of  strengthened  1979.. These of  administration been t e r m e d  disbanded  most r e c e n t  lessening  of  State  in their  the  government One  policy  Urban  Affairs  whereas  similar  roles.. N.H.A. w e r e  amendments c o n t i n u e  programs.  for  1S78,  amendments t o  federal of  Ministry  the  trend  involvement of  the  adopted  toward in  amendments  a the has  "disentanglement".:  T h i s means t h a t t h e f e d e r a l a u t h o r i t i e s w o u l d w i t h d r a w from the planning and r e g u l a t i o n of p u b l i c h o u s i n g p r o g r a m s and l i k e l y t h e community services programs such as neighbourhood improvement and residential r e h a b i l i t a t i o n as w e l l . M u n i c i p a l i t i e s and provinces would take a larger role i n the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of programs while the f e d e r a l government limited itself to a bigger role in financing. ( C i t y of T o r o n t o , 1978, p. 127) As related of  locus  issues  municipal  largely e.g.,  urban  the  has  planning  physical emphasis  of  become  land  concerning  decentralized,  d e p a r t m e n t s has  planning on  decision-making  concerns  of  use.planning,  so  housing  and  the  interests  diversified.  Previously  municipal zoning,  governments—  administration  of  10  corporations--e.g. , Ontario Scotia  Housing  (1966), and  Societe  Commission  The  of  1973  from  housing  Corporation  (1966),  P.E.I.  d• H a b i t a t i o n d u Q u e b e c  Renewal C o r p o r a t i o n  departure  Housing  past  Housing  (1967),  amendments  to  the  federal policies, liveable  environment,  amendments i n c l u d e d  of t h e Neighbourhood  Residential  co-operative Program  government's r o l e funds  and  N.I.P., on-site  administration resource, the  neighbourhoods  ensuring  made  t o take  the  criteria  federal  but  role.  and they  i n N.I.P.  with  (N.I.P.),  Homeownership The f e d e r a l  primarily  program,  to  with  was The  provide  regards with to  to the  have a  provinces  i n turn identified the  Progress  decisions  involvement  f o r the  of  (R.R.A.P.),  program.  F o r example,  evaluation  part  terms  was n o t t o be i n v o l v e d  municipalities  the  program  were  confined  were  to  respected  1976) . . Many  the  and  was  aspects  provisions)  Program  Assisted  assembly  programs  of  locally,  that  (C. M.H.C. ,  housing  i n these  s e t program s t a n d a r d s .  designated  be  a land  t h e f e d e r a l government  funding,  to  and  the  major  stated for the  (among o t h e r  Assistance  associations,  (A.H.O.P.).,  i n  Improvement Program  Rehabilitation  housing  a  i n that the social  first  the  Housing  N.H.A. w e r e  a n d c o m m u n i t y , was e x p l i c i t l y  introduction  Authority  Manitoba  one's neighbourhood The  Nova  (1967).  i n providing a  time.  (1964),  Canadian  m u n i c i p a l i t i e s took  programs o f t h e 1950's a n d 60's.  1970's  corporations Corporation  that  the  were (1974),  first  Greater  Vancouver  i nthe public  H o w e v e r , i t was d u r i n g  municipal  established—e.g.,  part  non-profit  City  housing  of Toronto  Housing  Housing  Corporation  12  local The  bylaws—have  local  good  been complemented  housing  needs s t u d i e s  examples o f t h e concerns  today  with  integration have  regard of both  to  major  influence  housing  within  the city..  &n provincial local  important  expertise  municipalities  have  deal  housing  with  such  local  Columbia  Brunswick,  of  redevelopment St..Lawrence local  programs  was  provincial,  Canada  by  was  to  sparse.  The  Reg U irments:__ A_Reyiew _gf_Re L  l  For  i  example,  -  -  see " S o c i a l  reflect  the which  and l o c a t i o n of  municipal  specific  and  Renters)  need  and  programs t o  allowance  schemes  i n British i n  New  including the  groups,  municipal  to residential  use (e.g.,  False  Creek,  projects..  Vancouver),  Each  research  housing  C.C.S.D.  by  agencies..  needs research i n  publication  Canadian_ Research  P l a n n i n g i n Vancouver"  of these  conducted  m u n i c i p a l government  mid-1970's,  the  upon  to theElderly)  extensive  m e t r o p o l i t a n , and/or  focus  issues  corporation projects  Toronto;  thesis, are  Provinces  shelter  land  1  the recent increasei n  aidfor Elderly  rehabilitation  preceeded  Prior  i s  instituted  underutilized  and  type  growing  f o r special  Neighbourhood,  heritage  planning  (Rental assistance  housing  of  studies  research.  needs—e.g.,  municipal housing  construction  of  housing  (Shelter  o r R.A.T.E.  The  housing  concerns.  municipalities  on t h e g u a n t i t y ,  recently  a s S.A.F.E.R.  i nthis  and s o c i a l  i n  i n  investigated  Canadian  result  involvement  social  housing.  physical  a  b y more  H°^siS3 (19 72)  by Egan, 1977.  13  investigated these,  seven  only  municipal  studies  conducted  from  t w o f o c u s upon t h e a s s e s s m e n t  level.  1964  -  1971.  o f h o u s i n g need  Of  1  at the  Furthermore,  None o f t h e h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s s t u d i e s u n d e r t a k e n s o far i n Canada have been s u p p o r t e d by a methodology permitting t h e statement o f housing goals i n a form against which t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n and rehabilitation programs can be conclusively evaluated. On t h e whole, studies t e n d t o be more c o n c e r n e d w i t h h o u s i n g demand ( a s a c l a s s i c a l economic concept) than with determining t h e dimensions of effective demand a n d unmet h o u s i n g n e e d s a n d s p e l l i n g these o u t i n terms o f both s u b s i d i z e d and u n s u b s i d i z e d new c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d r e h a b i l i t a t i o n g o a l s . . (Canadian C o u n c i l on S o c i a l Development, 1 9 7 2 , p. 69) It  has  been d u r i n g  required  more  housing  need  policy  sophisticated to facilitate  a n d program  reviewed  i n  this  of c o n s i d e r a b l e in  detailed  decisions  at the local  thesis  from  date  governments  research  regarding  formulation  increase  level..  i nresponsibilities  on  have local  housing planning The  1975-1979, d u r i n g  ACTION TO A L L E V I A T E HOUSING  A.local catalyst need..  1  and  local  of local  studies  the period government  housing.  5.. TO F O S T E R  and  t h erecent past that  to  housing  foster  As d i s c u s s e d  based  upon  needs  action above,  social  study  toward  NEED can  be  an  the alleviation  h o u s i n g need definition. .  i sa  effective of housing  normative  I n Canadian  concept  society, the  They a r e : 1. W.M. I l l i n g , H o u s i n g Demand t o 1970^. Economic Council of Canada, Dec. 1964; 2. A.C. G o r a c z , Housing R e q u i r e m e n t s t o 1 9 8 1 , C.M.H.C., F e b . 1 9 6 9 ; 3. S y s t e m s Research Group, Canada: F a m i l y , Household.and Housing P r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e Year 2000, Toronto, 1970; 4. P e t e r Barnard Associates, "Ontario's Housing Reguirements t o 1980", i n The Role o f t h e O n t a r i o Housing C o r p o r a t i o n i n System B u i l d i n g , Toronto, 19 7 0 ; 5. P a t t e r s o n Planning and Research, Mousinq_Needs_in_the M e t r o p o l i t a n . Toronto ^ P l a n n i n g Area/ Scarborough, 1969; 6. L . S m i t h , Housing i n Canada: Market S t r u c t u r e and P o l i c y Performance C.M.H.C.* 1 9 7 1 ; a n d 7. O n t a r i o H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , The O t t a w a H o u s i n g M a r k e t , T o r o n t o , 1968. r  14  means t o t h e a l l e v i a t i o n upon  government  necessary turn,  action.  The  t o meet h o u s i n g  needs  the  housing  public's  needs  housing  can  and  immediate  framework  needs be  problems.  in  Local  of  local  educating  o f need  both  within  of the  thesis  local  will  and  studies will  their  have  framework practice  identify  considered  views  of  theory  o n how  as  1. i t  i n completion  conducting i s  such  account  what  as to been  local  how.they conducted  developed  from  conducting  of  local  ambiguous  and  the  an  local  3.  studies,  objectives.. housing  (authors  be c o n d u c t e d ) ,  the p r a c t i c a l  studies,  needs  t h e major i s s u e s a n d . t o p i c  the studies should  into  conducting  on  practical  housing  examine  methods o f a c h i e v i n g the s t u d i e s *  i s inadeguate  take  actually  The  theory  Current  fully  they  areas.  s h o u l d be  alternative  agree  The  a n d how  urban  needs  which  planners to conduct  cities.  conducted,  examination  i s to provide a  studies are, various authors'  Canadian  planners  of the t h e s i s  to a i d housing  housing  not  vital  and,, i n  Overview  f o r Canadian  always  housing  planners as to t h e extent  studies  studies  a  programs  politicians'  role  objective  and  require  dependant  of public  play  The  areas  institution  the dimensions  OBJECTIVES  housing  largely  in articulating  1. . SCOPE AND  in  are  environment.  Thesis  should  need  awareness of l o c a l  studies,  need,  politicians  IVi  of housing  2.  constraints  i t does not  needs do  not  i t does facing  include  a  15  number local of  of  research  housing  will  document  to benefit  tool  needs  of  the  practice  demonstrates  methodologies  i n  from  work  recent  past  their  own  to  i n  the  the  a  thesis  t o enable  future  research will  on  The  experience  thesis  theory  have u t i l i z e d  need..  order  of t h e theory  f o r housing  current  studies  housing  and c l a r i f i c a t i o n  i nthis  field  reguirements.  serve both  on t h i s  topic  as an  as  well  planners.  METHODOLOGY The  1.  of conducting  of  studies  t o assess  developed  a practical  2.  needs  housing  these  framework  extension as  Canadian  t o compare t h i s  The  housing  of methodologies  researchers and  An i n v e s t i g a t i o n  i n part t o the l i m i t a t i o n s  topic,  variety  local  t o t h e process  o f c u r r e n t theory._  Due this  related  needs s t u d i e s .  conducting  shortcomings  topics  a  framework developed  review  of  examination  of  needs s t u d i e s , authors,  ten  recently  on  the  completed  directors,  on  Canadian  and/or  literature the  review  topic,  2..an  local  housing  planning  assessment  i n c l u d e s an e x a m i n a t i o n  of  under t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e United The  municipal  from  of a g u e s t i o n n a i r e sent t ot h e  local  housing  1975 a n d 1978 i n C a n a d a , t h e U n i t e d  prepared  i s derived  directors  f o r the studies.  The manuals  literature  a n d 3. t h e r e s u l t s  research  responsible  between  current  i n the thesis  or  t e n Canadian  local  commissioned  government  agencies  by  need  o f seven published  S t a t e s , B r i t a i n , and  Nations. housing  needs  provincial,  between  studies  were  metropolitan  1975 and 1979.. They  or  focus  17  thesis.  4. . O R G A N I Z A T I O N The housing local  introductory  needs  housing  study  chapter  has i n v e s t i g a t e d  i s , reviewed  needs s t u d i e s ,  five  purposes  and presented  an  what a  local  f o r conducting  overview  of  the  thesis. . Chapter housing the  needs  A  summary  of  assessment  the  The housing  needs  study  i n  stock;  groups;  aspects  housing  targets;  "context" consider  and  to  current  to  chapter  methods  needs  housing  recently  of  of  the  trends  and  of  the  particular  requirements;  the  The  local  theory  and  i n the previous  importance  housing  need.  to deal  o f 10  f o r conducting  account  the the  housing  i s presented.  s t u d i e s presented  issues  local  housing  a framework  discusses  proposed  a  constraints  suitability  the housing  the  chapter.  demographic and  takes into  the  "content"  this  on  and a  on  explanation  environment;  outlines which  presented  description  assess  local  published  theory  conduct  and t h e c o s t s o f a c t i n g ;  i n assessing local  alternative  of  quality,  of the l o c a l  4  manuals  suggestions  includes  affordability;  conducting The  seven  discusses the practical  which  needs s t u d i e s ,  chapters.  the  wish  guantity,  Chapter  of  from  A detailed  utilized the  o f methods t o conduct  need, concludes  who  Canada.  studies  housing  practice  of  chapter  planners  methodologies  housing  review  housing  third  facing  projections;  a  limitations  of l o c a l  completed  i s  studies collected  topic. .  discussion  2  of  planner  both should  implications  with s p e c i f i c  topic  of  areas  18  related  to  each The  issue,  are  concluding  chapter  framework  proposed  conducting  a  Concluding  remarks address  needs study  local  in  outlined.  Chapter  housing  successful?"..  of 4  the back  needs study the  guesticn  thesis to  outlined  the in  "When i s a  relates  the  purposes  for  Chapter  1.  local  housing  19  QjiAPTEE_2i._THE_THE0RY  Chapter recommendations  2  presents  an  concerning  conducting  local  contained  in  housing  seven  produced  i n Canada,  auspices  of the United  appropriate  needs  manuals  overview of various  studies.  methodologies  States,  Nations.  The  1  for  The r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e  f o r the estimation  the United  authors  Britain,  manuals  of housing and  under  need the  reviewed are:  1. American I n s t i t u t e of Planners/U.S. Department o f Housing and Urban Development (A. I . P./H.U. D.) . Regional„ H o u s i n g Planning: A Technical Guide. . Washington, D.C.: A . I . P . / H . U . D . , 1972. 2.. C a n a d i a n C o u n c i l o n S o c i a l D e v e l o p m e n t ( C . C . S . D . ) . R e q u i r e m e n t s:,. A_Re_yigw o f R e c e n t C a n a d i a n . J e s e a r c h . . C.C. S.D. , 1 9 7 2 .  Housing Ottawa:  3. Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation (C.M.H.C). P r o j e c t i n g _ L o n g - T e r m Housing Requirements and A s s e s s i n g C u r r e n t H o u s i n g Needs: The_Canadian E x p e r i e n c e . O t t a w a . : C . M . H . C , 19 7 8 . 4. H o u s i n g S e r v i c e s A d v i s o r y Group (H.S.A.G.). The of H o u s i n g R e g u i r e m e n t s . London, Eng.: Department E n v i r o n m e n t , 1977.  Assessment of the  5.. Teplitz, P.; Birch, d.; and Frieden, B.J.. Forecasting M e t r o p o l i t a n H o u s i n g Needs._. C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . : J o i n t C e n t e r f o r U r b a n S t u d i e s o f M.I.T. a n d H a r v a r d , 1973. . 6. United Nations Economic Commission f o r Europe. Housing R e q u i r e m e n t s a n d Demand: C u r r e n t M e t h o d s o f A s s e s s m e n t a n d Problems of Estimation. G e n e v a , S w i t z e r l a n d : U.N., 1 9 7 3 . . 7.. W a t s o n , C . J . , e t . a l . E s t i m a t i n g l o c a l Housing Needs: A Case Study and D i s c u s s i o n o f Methods. Birmingham, Eng.: Centre f o r U r b a n a n d R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s , The U n i v e r s i t y o f B i r m i n g h a m , 1 9 7 3 . The studies  should  manuals  suggest  how  be c o n d u c t e d . . T h e y  contrast  and compare t o t h e a c t u a l  housing  needs  of  studies  both the theory  and  ideally  provide practice  local  useful  housing  information  of conducting  (Ch. 3 ) .  I t i s t h r o u g h an  practice  of  conducting  needs to  local  investigation local  housing  16  upon  housing  reguireraents  areas,  and  N.S.  Victoria,  to  originate  approximately (1971;  Metropolitan The  cities  range  and  country—from in population  Ontario)  to  which  (see  with  each  seven  Winnipeg,  Appendix of  the  A)  ten  size  from  over  2,800,000  was  sent  studies  studies.  (Quebec,  to  Responses  Metropolitan  A l b e r t a , V a n c o u v e r and  were  thesis  conducted  focusses from  -  local  1979.  housing The  Victoria).  of  the  studies' findings.  that  findings reported  are  an  local  housing  Furthermore, housing  situation  the  author  accurate  according  does not  process  stated  w i t h i n the  t e x t s of  cases,  i n questionnaire responses.  respect a  the  degree  to  alleviating  wide  variety  political groups,  capability studies'  cf  level of  local  findings,  undertaken),  to  housing  public  each  need.  study,  not  of  the  utilized.  of  except or,  author the  This  (including,  i s  the  type  of  of  which  are  to  housing beyond  where  in  some able  studies  with  function  f o r example, of  f o r housing  agencies  the  i s not  a  a wide range  concern  government  investigation  methodology  e f f e c t i v e n e s s of  variables  and  reflection  Thus, the  perceptions  of  does  I t i s assumed  studies themselves  of  local  environment, the  related the  studies  have i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g  planning  evaluate  to the  needs  thesis  the  the  validity  1975  upon  examine  of  Halifax,  LIMITATIONS The  to  metropolitan  Toronto).  regarding  Cornwall,  the  (1971; C o r n w a l l ,  associated  were r e c e i v e d  3.  The  across  questionnaire  individuals  Toronto,  municipalities  from  B.C.  45,000  of  interest  issues,  implement planning the  scope  the  the the  process of  the  20  needs  studies,  preparing  that  future The  this  such  author  studies  will  i n Canada  publication of  propose (Ch.  the  above  concern  for  international  practical  methodologies f o r estimating  housing  The  this  recommendations from 1.  Geographic  2.  Content  Scope  D e f i n i t i o n of  5.  Projections  6.  Value  discussion  needs  of  the  manuals  reviews  recommendations  the THE  will  on  a  brief  conducting  follow.  Manuals STUDY surveyed  needs s t u d i e s  not always  theory  and  agree  at a  discusses local  methodologies  level.  as t o t h e d e f i n i t i o n  of  However, "local"  terms. The  as:  chapter  Study  the  t h e manuals  conducting housing  studies  of  from  for  spatial  need.  Concepts  studies  1. . G E O G R A P H I C SCOPE OF  do  and  Judgements  IJL _ R e c p m m e n d a t i o n s  in  of the  of the l i m i t a t i o n s of current  Each  clear  Study  summary  housing  determining  the  Models  4.  A  of  reflects  the manuals c o n c e r n i n g :  of the  3. . R e s e a r c h  local  section  4).  manuals  growing  first  a framework f o r  A.I.P./H.U.D..manual  s h o u l d be  conducted  by t h e  stresses "regional  that  housing  planning  needs  agency"  21  The housing delivery system is a r e g i o n a l system. What h a p p e n s in one part of the region directly affects what happens in other parts. It i s the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of the regional agency to see the region whole—to put forth a r e a w i d e p l a n s , t o make p o l i c y and a c t i o n r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s f o r b o t h local and state governments, ... a n d to evaluate the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of l o c a l a c t i o n s i n a r e g i o n a l framework and suggest alternatives where appropriate. ( A . I . P . / H . U . D . , 1 9 7 2 , p. 2) However, t h e  geographic extent  The Areas  C.M.H.C. m a n u a l  (C.M.A.'s)  counterpart  to  coincide  the  boundaries  study,  and  the  of  (S.M.S.A.'s) as  market  such  spatial  with  The  U.N.  manual  area"  as  the  describes  u n i t of  Census  defined.  Metropolitan the  American  Survey  Areas  a n a l y s i s , presumably  The  two  British  so  manuals  as  employ  counties. suggests the  ideal  the  to  i s not  Metropolitan  Census data. English  region  manual r e f e r s to  Statistical  the  a  refers  Teplitz  of  and  of  spatial  concept  as  concept  of  scope of  a  a  "housing  housing  needs  fellows:  The h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a i s a s p a t i a l u n i t w i t h i n w h i c h a household l o o k i n g f o r housing accomodation i s l i k e l y to c o n f i n e i t s e l f . U s u a l l y , i t i s an a r e a consisting o f a c e n t r a l p l a c e and s u r r o u n d i n g z o n e s , where p l a c e s of work and residence are concentrated w i t h i n such d i s t a n c e s t h a t enable t o l e r a b l e commuting. ... In such areas s i m i l a r d w e l l i n g s u s u a l l y have or tend t o have the same or a similar price, because the dwellings form a s p a t i a l system of i n t e r a c t i n g u n i t s . (U.N. , 1 9 7 3 , p. . 12) The  authors  boundaries practice, may areas  be  of as  a  overlap,  be  the a  U.N.  study  housing  market  state  that  area  number o f c e n t r a l p l a c e s  may or  clustered within a larger region.  easy t a s k . may  of  In  calculating  likely  a d d i t i o n , the  unstable  due  commuting  boundaries  of  delineating be  loci  difficult of  a housing  to a d m i n i s t r a t i v e , economic,  in  employment  Where h o u s i n g distances  the  market  i s not market  an area  communications  22  and  transportation  systematic would  application  mean a n i m p o r t a n t  (U.N.,  for  this  step i n  the local  the  of housing  "the  market  areas  refinement  of  estimates"  with t h i s  view  and p o i n t s  further  needs study  provincial  estimates are best  of a series  manual  housing  determining  reguirements, results  the concept  C.C.S.D. m a n u a l c o n c u r s  that should  basis  of  Nonetheless,  1972 , p. 1 2 ) . . The  out  developments and changes.  of l o c a l  or  obtained  housing  be e m p l o y e d national  by  as  a  housing  aggregating  market a n a l y s e s . .  the  However,  states:  . . . . i t i s also important that housing reguirements studies a t some point recognize the r e a l i t i e s of political jurisdictions—federal, provincial, and municipal—if t h e f i g u r e s f i n a l l y p r o d u c e d a r e t o be u s e f u l f o r p o l i c y and d e l i v e r y systems. (C.C.S.D., 1 9 7 2 , p. 6)  2..  CONTENT  OF  As encompasses relate decide  THE  STUDY  has  been  a variety  to a variety which  discussed  of variables  of conditions.  components  of  example,  the  i n and  C h . 1, may  be  The h o u s i n g  housing  need  "housing  need"  interpreted  to  planner needs t o s/he  intends  to  investigate. For distinguishing "affordability"  between of housing.  the  C.M.H.C. m a n u a l "adequacy",  recommends  "suitability",  and  23  ... A d e q u a c y , t h e s t r u c t u r a l c o n d i t i o n o f t h e d w e l l i n g u n i t ; S u i t a b i l i t y , t h e s i z e of t h e u n i t compared with the number o f p e o p l e l i v i n g i n i t ; and A f f o r d a b i l i t y , the degree t o which adequate, suitable accomodation can be secured at a socially acceptable r a t i o of e x p e n d i t u r e t o i n c o m e . . (C,M.H.C., 1 9 7 8 , p. 16) One needs study local  of the advantaqes  problems  which  at the provincial  planner  to  particular  a  local  housinq  i s the opportunity afforded t o investiqate  housing  conducted  of conductinq  be  within  go  or f e d e r a l  especially  groups  may  overlooked  level.  sensitive  to  This  in detail by s t u d i e s  allows  the housing  the  needs o f  the region.  .A c o m p r e h e n s i v e assessment of housing requirements must look beyond t h e t o t a l number and b e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e n e e d s o f p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p s , some o f whom may require special treatment. ... we c o n s i d e r w i t h i n t h e total requirement, the needs of elderly people; d i s a b l e d people; s i n q l e people of working age; oneparent faimlies, including unmarried mothers and battered women; mentally handicapped people; and m i n o r i t y groups. ( H . S . A . G . , 1 9 7 7 , p . . 12) Not  only  can  the  researcher  obtain  information concerning  group  currently  also  residing  investigate  particular  the  housing  the l o c a l  in  inadequate  preferences  researchers  can  t o the l o c a l  areas  o f t h e r e g i o n which  are lacking  such  as  libraries  can  be d i s t i n g u i s h e d  how  these  types as  health clinics,  areas  may  of r e s i d e n t i a l  areas  discussed  i n  need  i n Ch.  1,  of and  suitable  housing  does  not  areas  forward  on  f o r particular  be p i n p o n t e d ,  rehabilitation.  need  services  shopping  be improved.  housing  particular  i n neighbourhood  also  with  For example,  c a n be p u t  of  b u t s/he c a n  investigate  or accessible  may  each  location..  environment.  Areas  easily  people  and recommendations  development  more within  housing,  needs i n terms of design  problems r e l a t e d  level  t h e number o f p e o p l e  housing  Similarly, housing  at  As  relate  as  well  has been only  to  24  characteristics the  quality  Data  of  the  units  of the neighbourhood  concerning  environmental  impossible,  t o o b t a i n from  Census  monthly  or  planning surveys the p.  offices which  commencement  of  the  data  statistics  obtain  such  i s  which  sources  information  housing  we  study  i fnot  such  as  the  However,  local  through  field  been completed  needs  live. .  difficult,  reports..  have  but i n c l u d e s  prior  to  (Watson, 1973,  6) .  include  The  can  quality  established  housing  we r e s i d e ,  and r e g i o n i n  i n many i n s t a n c e s may  The  are  i n which  economic  within  important  environment  t h e scope  also  of the study.  of  data  concerning  consequences  i n future policy  and  of f u t u r e  be v e r y  important to  Employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s  to consider i n forecasting  inclusion  location  may  housing  requirements.  job p r o s p e c t s has i m p o r t a n t  decisions regarding  the  quantity  housing.  People t o be housed i n a locality need t o have r e a s o n a b l e p r o s p e c t s o f f i n d i n g employment t h e r e , and this has an important "bearing on h o u s i n g location policy. ... Help those i n bad h o u s i n g c o n d i t i o n , but be c a u t i o u s i n p r o v i d i n g a d d i t i o n a l h o u s i n g f o r p e o p l e whose job prospects may be better elsewhere. ( H . S . A . G . , 1 9 7 7 , p p . .2-3) In  a similar  vein,  t h e A.I.P./H.U.D.  manual p o i n t s o u t t h a t :  There must be a constant alertness to "special" situations i n the analysis. This includes problem situations t h a t a r e not always f u l l y r e f l e c t e d i n the s t a t i s t i c s ; and also includes special developments (such as an industrial plant impact) that might distort any particular set of statistics.. ( A . I . P . / H . U . D . , 1 9 7 2 , p . 15) 3.  RESEARCH A  allows  MODELS research  us t o understand  necessary  ingredient  model  i s , i n essence,  t h e dynamics to  the  c f housing  housing  a framework need.  needs s t u d y ,  I t  which i s  a  as not o n l y  25  does  i t describe  how t h e m a j o r a s p e c t s  but  will  the planner t o manipulate  enable  a meaningful  way.  The r e s e a r c h  reams o f s e e m i n g l y the  means  by  unrelated  which  model  of  need  the data  collected i n  i s the  statistics  "housing  housing  process  arise,  by  which  can t a k e on meaning, and  n e e d " may  be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d  and  quantified. Each estimating  of t h e manuals  housing  need. .  reviewed  proposes  The models d i f f e r  a  model  for  i n their level  complexity  and c o m p r e h e n s i v e n e s s .  However, two t y p e s  of  may  distinguished.  first  termed  be  "organizational related  data  retrievable may  be  model  i n  orderly  termed a "causal  of data  that  I t s purpose  the  may  i s  fashion,  how  Often  model".  The p r i m a r y  model i n  assemble  The s e c o n d  d i f f e r e n t types  the causal  to  be  such t h a t  be r e a d i l y u p d a t e d .  i s to specify  however in  an  a n d may  interrelate. range  model".  The  of data  be i n c l u d e d  the  causal  m o d e l i s a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d  i t c a n more c l e a r l y e x p l a i n  an  i ti s easily model  type  of t h i s  data  does n o t i n c l u d e  a s may  models  housing  objective or  of  series  as wide a  organizational  model,  research  interrelationships  tool  between  variables. . The example  A.I.?./HoU.D..  of the  organizational  C.C.S.D. m a n u a l s model The  manual  have  been  model selected  has been c h o s e n as a type.  The  Teplitz  as examples of t h e  good and  causal  type.  Organizational  Model  a) T h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s / D e p a r t m e n t o f Urban Development The  (A. I . P./H. U.D.)  A.I.P./H.U.D.  model  Model attempts t o  Housing and  26  ... b e a workable v e h i c l e f o r a n a l y s i n g the housing s u p p l y and demand s i t u a t i o n and d e v e l o p i n g a profile of t h e unmet n e e d s o f t h e a r e a i n t e r m s of numbers and types of housing units and other relevant c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . . ( A . I . P . / H . U . D . , 1 9 7 2 , p. . 15) Their new  "Housing  housing  Model"  p r o d u c t i o n on  The Supply  analyses  model  Series  Production  Requirements.  series  outlined The  a  B, The  requirements  for  basis.  series  of  Housing tables  in Fiqure  Supply  forecasts  a regional  i s in fact  Framework;  are  and  tables:  S e r i e s A,  Occupancy; and  to  be  The  Series  included  in  C,  each  1.  Framework  (Series  A)  tables  ... c a l l for the assembly of i n f o r m a t i o n on the c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s t o c k , o c c u p i e d and v a c a n t , by g e n e r a l c o n d i t i o n ; changes that are taking place in this stock, b o t h g a i n s and l o s s e s ; and p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y o f t h e l o c a l d e l i v e r y s y s t e m f o r new h o u s i n g , b y type and v a l u e . (A.I.P./H.U.D., 1972, p..17) An  example  Figure  2.  between  of  Each o f  take  into  into  these  although  of  specific  which  tables use  Subareas"  of  may  be  to  t h a t past The  and  local  to  in  this  the housing  norms.. Most be  A-2, very  useful  in  inadequacies. changes  trends  may  Series  B  data  be  of  distinguishes  housing planner data  through  i s shown i n  units, in  the  order  t o be  field  to  plugged surveys,  i s also  recommended  Current  Housing  where  Stock  by  geographically pinpointing Other  i n the  tables  housing  allow  the  over  time,  stock  evidenced.  tables of  tables  series  of the  collected  "Ereakdown  clarify  is  of these  d e c e n n i a l census  characteristics tables  one  "substandard"  i s left  the  of  tables  i s to  Table  housing  researcher  these  the  account  appropriate.  detail  format  "standard"  definition  such  the  the  concerning  Housing  region's population.  ccncerning  the  income  Occupancy Included  and  in  housing  27  Basic Tables in the Housing Model  Series A. The Supply Framework A-l A-2 A-3(a) A-3(b) A-3(c) A-4  Estimated Current Housing Stock, by Race and Tenure of Occupancy Breakdown of Current Housing Stock by Subareas Changes in Total Housing Inventory in Recent period Changes in Housing Inventory Occupied by White Households, Recent Period Changes in Housing Inventory Occupied by Minority Households, Recent Period Production and Occupancy of Non-Subsidized New Units in Recent Period  Series B. Housing Occupancy B-l B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6 B-7 B-8  Breakdown of Current Households by Income Groups and Race Breakdown of Current Elderly Households by Income Groups and Race Breakdown of Current Households by Income Groups, Race and Subarea Breakdown of Renter Households by Income and Monthly Rental, 1970 Breakdown of Large Families by Income Groups and Race, 1970 Breakdown of Households by Income Groups and Race, 1950-60-70 Forecasts of Population and Household by Race by 2-Year and 10-Year Periods Forecasts of Households by Race and Income Groups in 2 Years and 10 Years  Series C. Production Requirements C-l C-2 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6 C-7 C-8  Basic Factors in Estimating New Housing Production Requirements, Next 10 Years Basic Factors in Estimating New Housing Production Requirements, Next 10 Years Basic Factors in Estimating New Housing Production Requirements, Next 10 Years Basic Factors in Estimating New Housing Production Requirements, Next 10 Years Estimated Total New Housing Production Requirements and Potential Unmet Needs, Next 10 Years Breakdown of Total New Production Requirements for Program Purposes, Next 10 Years Changes in Inventory, Occupancy and Vacancy of Standard and Substandard Units if Total Production Requirements are Met, Next 10 Years Breakdown of New Production and Rehabilitation Increment of 10-Year Total Requirements, Next 2 Yean  Figure  expenditures  Is  of  A.I.P./H.U.D. H o u s i n g M o d e l B a s i c  both  renter  and  Tables.  owner o c c u p a n t s ,  as well  as  \  28  Table A - 2 . B R E A K D O W N O F C U R R E N T H O U S I N G S T O C K B Y S U B A R E A S (Number o f Units) Standard  Total  Substandard  Area A Occupied Units White Owner Occupancy Single-Family Multi-Family Subtotal White Renter Occupancy Single-Family Multi-Family Subtotal Minority Owner Occupancy Single-Family Multi-Family Subtotal Minority Renter Occupancy Single-Family Multi-Family Subtotal AU Occupied Units Single-Family Multi-Family Total Occupied Vacant Units: T O T A L UNITS Area B Same Breakdown as Above Area C Same Breakdown as Above  -  Area D Same Breakdown as Above  Figure 2i Example "Supply Framework" Table.  statistics  concerning  particular  groups  of people  known  to  have  29  especially  severe  investigate population  in and  population  housing  detail large  and  problems..  the  authors  characteristics  families.  household  The  Also  income  of  included  forecasts  have chosen the  in this  at  2-year  to  elderly series  and  are  10-year  intervals.  outline  The  final  what  the  housing  production  number  of  the  new  housinq  vacancies. 3. .  years year  new  be  table  to  in one  of  of  and  factors in estimating  These  factors  compensate the  this  these  of  tables  s e r i e s and  the  of  study,  in  households  model as  targets as  the  losses  i s shown i n  the  new  include  for future  number  rehabilitation  completion  and  adapted the  conditions a  of  may to  in  be  relatively  suit  local  planner  with  in  region.  the  A.I.P./H.U.D.. i n the  from  tables.  As  the the  have  1.  some d e t a i l ,  a  major disadvantage  collected  utilizinq  A.I.P./H.U.D.. a r e :  investigated  provide  part  of  advantaqes  by  organized  that  "basic  Eeguirements--  well  Figure  a  whole,  for as  and  the  2  a total  10  requirement.  proposed  be  growth  production  The  may  term  required  example  following  tables--Production  requirements".  stock,  final  outlines  authors  units  An  The  s e r i e s of  not  model.  that 2.  easy  model  to  such  a wide range  the  housing  clearly  i s  well-  model  may  conditions,  and  4.  can  picture  of  C is in  housing  this  author,  this  the  type.  data  derived the  i t  the  model o f  interrelated  That i s . S e r i e s  state:  factors  the  in a  collected  of  that  3.  However, i t appears t o  i s inherent  as  information  update,  comprehensive  information authors  a  Series  to  only A and  be in B  Table C-5. ESTIMATED TOTAL NEW HOUSING PRODUCTION REQUIREMENTS AND POTENTIAL UNMET NEEDS, NEXT 10 YEARS A. Housing Production Requirements 1. Growth Factor (Table C-l) 2. Replacement Factor (Table C-l) 3. Vacancy Factor (Table C-l) Subtotal 4. Reduction of Substandard Units (Table C-2) TOTAL PRODUCTION REQUIREMENTS B. Basic Production Output (assuming no additional program or subsidy efforts) 1. New private units likely to be produced without subsidy. 2. New units in subsidized project already planned or programmed. 3. New public housing units already planned or programmed. TOTAL BASIC PRODUCTION OUTPUT C. Potential Unmet Needs Housing needs to be met by production: Special needs: a. Elderly (Table C-3/Item E-3) b. Low-and moderate-income (Table C-4) (Table C-+/Items F - l , 2, 3) c. Repressed demand (Table C-4/Item G) N  Total Special  Non-special needs' Total Needs Less: Total Basic Production Output POTENTIAL UNMET NEEDS 'Total Production Requirements less Special Needs.  F i g u r e 3:  Most  Example " P r o d u c t i o n R e q u i r e m e n t s "  of the factors  i n Series  C  Table.  ... i n v o l v e  estimates  31  of unit replacements that a r e judgemental i n c h a r a c t e r . . .... A l l o f t h e j u d g e m e n t a l estimates i n these tables have their statistical roots i nthe S e r i e s A and S e r i e s B t a b l e s , but they do not flow automatically from the data i n these e a r l i e r tables.. T h e y come f r o m a hard-headed e v a l u a t i o n of whether there will be a d d i t i o n a l needs f o r s t a n d a r d housing over and above those provided by normal production processes. (A. I . P./H. U. D. , 1 9 7 2 , p . 35) Thus,  although  methodology housing  in  from  i t i s  this  one e l e m e n t  tables,  succeed  t o d e s c r i b e a wide range  system,  derived  A. I . P./H. 0.D.  i t  range  unclear  of the "Supply i s  unclear  developing  of f a c t o r s  how  of data.  i n  comprising  housing  how  this  or "Housing  will  the  reguirements are  That i s , s h o u l d a change  Framework"  a  occur  Occupancy"  affect  "Production  Eeguirements". The a)  Causal  Model  The T e p l i t z  Model  The estimation  Teplitz of  A.I.P./H.0.D. components concern need of  t h e need  other  model,  within  each  model  in  contrast  originates. which  of  the  reports,  or  field  t c make s e n s e  how  which  can  indicators.  distinguished Each  of  to  the  various  The  explain  the  primary housing A number  t o d e s c r i b e how variables  i s  a r e amenable t o g u a n t i f i c a t i o n .  In  variables  composed  i n p u b l i s h e d census  of  for  interrelate.  accessible  are f i r s t  available  model a t t e m p t s  system  relatively  indicators  through  which,  a methodology  d e f i n e d i n terms  constructing  need  a  s t r e s s e s an u n d e r s t a n d i n g  variables  f o r housing  words,  describes  the housing  utilizing  conceptual  then  housing  i s t o develop  while  manual  i s  these  operationalized  of s t a t i s t i c s  reports  surveys. of data  and  which  housing  by  are either statistics  Whereas t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l collected,  the causal  model  32  determines  first  need  and  only then  these  elements. The  for  Urban  and  what a r e t h e e l e m e n t s  perceived  Teplitz  inadeguacies  which  carried  are  of  in  targets. out  included The  view  been  I t has  of Housing  housing  been  model has  University.  U.S..Department  has  attempts t o structure  1  the and  f o r San  as  Diego  authors of t h i s  housing  movements"  (p.  the  Joint  of  to  Center  Technology  i n response  utilized  by  to the  Development i n d e t e r m i n i n g employing  and  the  Chicago,  to the  model  housing  to correspond  developed  methods Urban  appendices  data  Institute  been  Analysis  comprise  d e v i s e d by  S t u d i e s of the Massachusetts  Harvard  national  which  Teplitz  model  the f i n d i n g s  of  manual.  stress  taking  a "behavioural  10).  The purpose i s n o t t o s p e c i f y what t h e needs s h o u l d be, b u t t o p r o p o s e a method of a n a l y s i s — b a s e d upon the best available understanding of people's b e h a v i o u r - - t o e s t i m a t e what t h e n e e d s will be under different assumptions about t h e f u t u r e and d i f f e r e n t goals for public policy. Only a thorough, metropolitan-level analysis can expose the m u l t i p l e causes of h o u s i n g need i n s u f f i c i e n t d e t a i l t o permit effective action. ( T e p l i t z , e t . a l . , 1 9 7 3 , p . . 7) The  authors  traditional defines  contrast approach"  housing  Housing  approach  to  to assessing housing  reguirements as  Reguirements  demolitions  their  =  new  + substandard  the  sum  need.  of f o u r  household housing  what t h e y term This  "the  approach  factors:  formations  + acceptable  +' e x p e c t e d vacancy  rate  !The d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e s e t a r g e t s i s e x p l a i n e d i n the Report of the President's Committee on Urban Housing, A_Decent_Home W a s h i n g t o n , D.C.: U.S. G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1968; Edgar F. K a i s e r , C o m m i t t e e Chairman..  33  The  number of  count,  and  trends  into  substandard the  the  other  housing  underlying  the  need.  trends  above.  These  area,  including  causes  rates,  separate  households of  or  a desire  required to  with  a  minimum  to  indicators  component has to  housing  to  direct  projecting  past  mix,  due  of  each  of the rates  local  + net  migration,  population to l i v e  of t h e i r  these to  of  loss"  The  approach  metropolitan  2.  goals of  of  components  traditional  housing;  housing.  of  rate");  to "accidental  public  set  p i n p o i n t the - causes  and  the  3..  in  local old  unit  additional  providing a l l citizens authors major  then  develop  a  components:  meet d e m o g r a p h i c c h a n g e s movements + h o u s i n g  has  these which  been  defined,  conceptual can  make u s e  been s u b d i v i d e d as  data  is  variables. of  available  +  to  required  to  In  to  data  order  sources,  follows:  meet d e m o g r a p h i c c h a n g e s = n a t u r a l  increase  a  goals  each  of  the  "headship  accomodate  public  in  demography  Need = h o u s i n g  describe  housing  the  to  p r o p e n s i t y of the  relates  relationship  each  attempt  for different  Once t h i s  develop  by  d e r i v e d by  different  population  (the  quality  which  housing  1.  satisfy  Housing  achieve  the  people  units  Additional  are:  and  movements  These  a  described  i t s  fertility  model  established  components are  e t . a l . propose  to comprise  simple  i s  future.  Teplitz,  through  units  growth  +  headship  migration  accomodate  local  movements  =  replacement  of  34  accidental housing  to  achieve  without In  some  l o s s e s + upward  full  public  goals  plumbing  instances,  -  these  no  is available  of as  upward being  upward  filtering.  1  overcrowded  units  +  units  with both c o n d i t i o n s  subcomponents  i n order t o correspond which  =  units  further data  filtering  must  to available  corresponds  be  data  directly  subdivided  sources.. to  the  Thus,  concept  T h i s subcomponent i s t h e r e f o r e r e d e f i n e d  eguivalent to:  filtering  = new  units  -  new  households  -  accidental  losses The relevant most  f o r each  heavily  Problems  are  migration  consider  The  Teplitz  variety  that  of  rate  may  the  relevant  tackle  of  sources  model,  and  decennial  data—e.g.,  size.  these  are rely  census. re  net  need  I t does  evident i n  needs  not more  are  considerations  (The  authors  state  a s p e c t s as r e l a t e d  maintain i n their housing  simple.  housing  omissions  household  study  data  forecasts.  Notable  authors  "to  research  d e r i v e d from  components  incomes and  The  American  model i s r e l a t i v e l y  models..  research  filtering.)  1  statistics  headship  a  which  component of t h e i r  and  households'  manual  cn  explain  inherent i n finding  sophisticated  future  authors  introduction  to  of  that  upward to  the  without c o n s i d e r i n g the  Teplitz et..al. here employ the term " u p g r a d i n g " . . This term, however, may be confusing to the reader a s i t i s commonly employed t o d e s c r i b e the p h y s i c a l upgrading of a housing u n i t or housing r e h a b i l i t a t i o n . As t h e a u t h o r s d e s c r i b e " u p g r a d i n g " as the net c o n s t r u c t i o n demand which surfaces as a r e s u l t of h o u s e h o l d s w i s h i n g t o move t o b e t t e r a c c o m o d a t i o n (p..24) i t i s felt that t h e t e r m " u p w a r d f i l t e r i n g " may b e u s e d i n i t s p l a c e t o c o n n o t e t h e same c o n c e p t . . S e e d i s c u s s i o n w h i c h f o l l o w s . .  35  complementary some  of  needs f o r environment  the  principal  and  services  determinants  of  i s to  overlook  people's  behaviour"  (p. . 7 ) . . C u r i o u s l y e n o u g h , h o w e v e r , e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are  not  included  recognize upon t h e  that  in  the  housing  They  factors  as  construction  a  very  housing  research  detailed  analysis  could  the  the  three  b)  The  Canadian  A  the  of  This  authors  conducted  land,  the  of  The  authors  demands  placed  and  housing  changes  i n c l u d e housing labour,  supply  financing  For  redefined to  and  range  and a  housing  housing  housing  into  to  be  i n Canada a t  the  as  first  in  of  suggested account  missing time.  the  subdivision  The  a in  a  More basic public  concept  of  related  or  to  inserted breakdown  proposed.  Development  range  n e e d , as  model t a k e s felt  account  p r e f e r e n c e s c o u l d be  framework,  wider  the  achieve  (C.C.S.D.)  r e s e a r c h model proposed  based a  to  considerations  more d e t a i l e d  Social  which  included within  into  of  by  model  i s formulated.  "housing  take  Teplitz  process  causal type  example,  wider  above, the  the  c o u l d c o n c e i v a b l y be  C o u n c i l on  introducing  assessment  of  to  major c o n c e p t u a l v a r i a b l e s  employs a c a u s a l l y  model.  model of  model through  of  while  cost  illustration  changes  The  attempt  notwithstanding the  good  be  affordability.  into  proposed.  demographic  not  the  proposed.  demographic  as  materials.  provides  goals"  by  do  However,  framework  model  model c o n f i n e s i t s e l f t o t h e  system  preferences. . such  the  by  the  the  Model  C.C.S.D.,  Teplitz  model,  factors  related  by  A.I.P./H.U.D.  the  to  the  number o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n s housing  model  deos  needs not  studies consider  36  supply  factors,  housing  and  concentrates  on  the  problem  of a s s e s s i n g  reguirements:  T h i s p a p e r p r o v i d e s no c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the housing units supply side of the demand-supply equation.. ... i t i s i m p o r t a n t that these factors be treated separately as p a r t of the c o n s i d e r a t i o n as t o whether reguirements can actually be met, rather than confusinq t h e a n a l y s i s o f r e q u i r e m e n t s by i n t r o d u c i n g these supply variables. ( s i c ; C . C . S . D . , 1 9 7 2 , p. .26)  The 1.  the  3.  Housing  model  Household  the  model  derived  investigates  eight in  4.  data.  first  stage  data  household  types  on  types.  to correspond  how  three  Housing  each  sections—  Analysis,  stage  of  the  also  illustrates  how  each  section  the  of the  characteristics  group  order  This diagram and  of  2..the  components of  related  The  authors  The  interrelate  from  i s comprised  Analysis,  Goals.  shown i n F i g u r e of  proposed  model,  of the  the  of  types  housing  are  needs.  are  stages  model  i s  Analysis,  population..  population characteristics  to probable  the  Household  region's  These household  model  and  according  The to  distinguished The  household  are: 1. s i n g l e — a g e d 20-24 2. . s i n g l e — a g e d 2 5 - 6 5 3. s i n g l e — a g e d 65 p l u s 4. m a r r i e d c o u p l e w i t h o u t c h i l d r e n — u n d e r 6 5 5..married couple without c h i l d r e n — 6 5 plus 6. s i n g l e a d u l t o r m a r r i e d c o u p l e — 1 o r 2 c h i l d r e n 7. s i n g l e a d u l t o r m a r r i e d c o u p l e — 3 o r 4 c h i l d r e n 8.  The  single  authors  adult or married recognize  households'  income  occupy  housing  afford  the i t "  indicator  (p.9). of  a  and  the wealth:  couple—5  importance "The  plus of  children including  ability  of  t h e y n e e d i s c o n s t r a i n e d by Data  on  income alone  household's  ability  data  households their  may  be  to  afford  ability  m i s l e a d i n g as housing,  on tc to an and  A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING HOUSING REQUIREMENTS  HOUSEHOLD ANALYSIS  Canadian Population  Population i n Urban Area  Population of Households  Households Income and Wealth  Dimension of T o t a l E f f e c t i v e and NonE f f e c t l v e Househ o l d Need  HOUSING GOALS  P r o p o r t i o n o f Househ o l d Income and Wealth f o r Housing  Dimensions o f E f f e c t i v e and NonE f f e c t i v e Demand  HOUSING REQUIREMENTS GOALS  - New C o n s t r u c t i o n - Rehabilitation  HOUSING ANALYSIS Cost  Standards  Stock  - Removals Cost o f C o n v e r t i n g to Standard Housing  Cost of Standard Housing  Concept of Standard Housing  Standard Housing f o r Each Household Type  Housing Stock Analysis  Amount and ] Types o f Standard Housing Amount and Type o f Non-Standard Housing  F i g u r e k: W  Allowance for Loss, Vacancies, etc.  C.C.S.D. H o u s i n g Requirements  Model.  -  Subsidies  38  accumulated  capital--should  Unfortunately,  as  the  also  be  authors state,  such  taken data  into  i s  account.  difficult  to  obtain. A clear also  be  definition  established  i n c o m e and  wealth  Ideally,  in  costs  interest  component of  of  appliances,  housing not  important that  that  this  stages  the  of  indicate and  by  1.  the  number  of  of  the  3.  cost  taxes.  The  may  decided  decide i t  i s  upon  and  of  the  each  the  concept  of  housing  services  should  physical  a  standard  each  eight  household  of  condition  contains,  and  access housing  the  include  size  of  unit  area  combinations  of  model,  housing".. as  the  the  a  and  provision  transportation. . should  types outlined  be  above.  developed The  the The  minimum:  u n i t , 2.  unit  4. . t h e  to  a  ( p . _15) .  "standard  the  and  3.  "by  urban  varying  for housing"  is  concluded  selected  of  stage  i t  be  f o r the  second  of  write:  be  should  the  definition the  type  utilities,  rooms  neighbourhood  of  or  However,  throughout  to  and  basic  of  Analysis  available  standard  structural  provision  5.  of  needs.  L.rent  assumptions,  cost  must  proportion  shelter  and  components.  housing  region  utilities,  costs,  consistent  household  income  Analysis,  definition  remain  to  2.  upon i n i t i a l  of  the  account:  the numbers of households  Essential Housing  into  payments,  these cost  Household  of tables  wealth  determine  transportation  a definition  f o r the  model..  The  that  of  definition  of  series  each  cost  devoting  take  mortgage  p l a n n e r , depending  to include  to  are  should  4.  housing  order  households  housing  major  of  the the of .The for  authors  39  ... i t i s conceivable that dist n e e d t o be d e v e l o p e d f o r s p e c i f i c the same sized household. For r e g u i r e s p e c i a l d e s i g n f e a t u r e and variety of indoor and outdoor ( C . C . S . D . , 1 9 7 2 , p . 16) The  standard  which  are  time. each  housing  unit  widely shared  Once t h e s e standard  constitutes  unit  types  within  calculated.  housing  cost  should  back  the  to  model, afford  point  i n order  the  in  example,  of  standard  may  25%—or  housing  Stock  Analysis"  existing  units  which  The  housing  final  stage  planner  for  the  others  types  granting  subsidies to the  household  of  may  the  i s to  go  A n a l y s i s stage  of  unit.  unable  The  cut-off  proportion of  vary  i n fact  according  be  an  fully  the  previously  here  adeguate may  occur  utilized.  A of  of standard  housing  for  defined. Housing  to  provide  households  should  removals,  either  of  number  how of  to  total  model o u t l i n e s  number  and  be  region, overcrowding not  of  what  in  planner  set at a certain  Consideration  tied  cost  number o f h o u s e h o l d s  criteria  considers  rehabilitation,  or  employed  Household  may  of the  construction,  housing)  definition  housing  investigates  units.  of  The  the  level  i n the  substandard  particular  upon, the  that  t h e r e may  estimated  a  norms  r e q u i r e d r e g a r d i n g c u r r e n t use  meet t h e  of household  housing  the  Although  "Housing  The  be  i s also  whereas  variety  decided  appropriate standard  units  the  some  stock.  the  reflect  at  be  i n the  identify an  Information  housing  supply  to  affordability  income—for  point,  produced  the c o s t of  re  income.  tables  should  community  should  A n a l y s i s . . At t h i s  the  the  have been  Household to  developed  standards be  i n c t standards will age categories of example, the old access to a certain recreation space..  be as  t o the  (e.g., s h e l t e r  adeguate  living  given  well unit  Goals. .  as (e.g.,  allowance  in  to  new  to  the  public  schemes).  40  The  concept  determine  of  how  standard  decreased the  detail,  housing,  dwellings  model  which,  while  similar  c a n be e m p l o y e d t o  can  be  converted  to  construction.  succeeds  of analysis  planner.  the  Through  authors  dimensions  provide  unit  i n  maintaining  retaining  a  t c the Teplitz  a  reasonable  m o d e l , may  be  or increased according to the research reguirements of  housing  the  C.C.S.D.  framework  of  housing  a t b e l o w t h e c o s t o f new  The  degree  standard  many s u b s t a n d a r d  units  consistent  a  utilizing  of this  of effective  t h e concept  model have  and i n e f f e c t i v e  of  standard  been a b l e t o g u a n t i f y demand, a s  an e s t i m a t e o f t h e c o s t o f a c h i e v i n g h o u s i n g  well  as  requirement  goals. .  4. . D E F I N I N I T I O N Most texts  o f t h e manuals r e v i e w e d  to discussions  "household", Although  their  manuals  of c l e a r l y  discussions  the case.  model chosen, defined. meaning  "housing  not  defining  that  of t h e terms  t o add p r e c i s i o n  a)  Household What publication  i s  central  i n  concepts  planner  upon  so  implies  that  s h o u l d be c a r e f u l  to the statistics  meaning  distinguishes  words  t o housing  terms  s/he employs i n o r d e r  the  many  concepts  to  t o be  of  a  as  and " v a c a n c i e s " .  related  of these  of their  concepts  r e g a r d l e s s of the type  i t s h o u l d be based housing  sections  losses",  state  on t h e meaning  and  U.N.  do  I t appears  The  devote  o f how t o d e f i n e s u c h  "overcrowding",  these  importance  be  OF CONCEPTS  the need,  this to  of r e s e a r c h are  clearly  t o analyze the  avoid  confusion  collected,  "household"?  The  between a " h o u s e h o l d - d w e l l i n g " , a  41  "family  household"  dwelling"  concept  does n o t p r o v i d e lodgers  definition of  to  equates  i n  the  of  with  the  unit.  number  and b o a r d e r s  number o f h o u s e h o l d s " European  independant  the  on  unit".  The  housing  number  The families  i n  a  countries  i s  the  boarders  or  household"  i s  statistical  concept  and t h u s  r e g i o n . ..  or lodgers can r e s u l t  (p. 6 ) . . The  "household-  unit,  of  "family  may b e m i s l e a d i n g a s " d i f f e r e n t  relatives  most  household  information  residing  equivalent  and a "housekeeping  treatment  i n a  different  currently  "housekeeping  This  used  i n  unit"  or  household.  A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s concept a household i s e i t h e r a oneperson household—a person who lives alone i n a separate h o u s i n g u n i t o r who o c c u p i e s , a s a l o d g e r , a s e p a r a t e room ( o r rooms) of a housing unit—or a multi-person household— a group o f t w o o r more p e r s o n s who c o m b i n e t o o c c u p y t h e w h o l e o r p a r t of a h o u s i n g u n i t . . (U. N. , 1 9 7 3 , p. 6) The  H.S.A.G. p u b l i c a t i o n  concept  of a household,  utilizes  defining  the  i tas  "housekeeping  unit"  follows:  ... a s e i t h e r o n e p e r s o n l i v i n g a l o n e , o r a group of persons (who may o r may n o t be r e l a t e d ) l i v i n g a t t h e same address with common housekeeping (generally accepted t o mean t a k i n g m e a l s t o g e t h e r ) . (H.S.A.G., 1 9 7 7 , p . .40) This  i s the definition  authors  point  employed  out, however, t h a t  by t h e  British  Census.  These  i ti s not  ... e n t i r e l y satisfactory f o r estimating dwelling requirements because i t does not include those households who a r e p r e v e n t e d from f o r m i n g by l a c k o f housing or other reasons, while i t includes households c u r r e n t l y s h a r i n g a d w e l l i n g and n o t w i s h i n g t o occupy a separate dwelling of their own. (H.S.A.G., 1 9 7 7 , P- . 4 0 ) In  order  Department households"  to  overcome  these  of the Environment which  includes  limitations,  i n 1960 t h e B r i t i s h  devised t h e concept  the t o t a l  of census  of  type  "potential households,  42  PLUS m a r r i e d c o u p l e f a m i l i e s , forming  or  heading  married  couple  person  households  However,  separate  separate  who  married  couple and  wish t o share The  share  household  with  (termed  their  the  with  number  may  of  The  Canadian  households" are is  ten  and  or  termed  occupy or  to  Census  definition housing  separate units  institutions  to of  the  the assessment  readily  be  choice  of  affect  the  cognizant  who  also  of  of the  persons  housing of  a l l  need  a  households  Thus,  the  counted  constitute  study.  meaning chosen  t o employ which  this  persons  who  houses,  language  one  i s  groups  might  will  s/he  of  central  Thus,  i f the housing can  any  t o omit  household  of the term,  there  lodging  household.  the term Only  when  dwelling,  i s likely  a  "family  separately.  a concept  s/he  concept..  between  large  p l a n n e r choose  of  household,  dwelling. or without c o n s i s t of a g r o u p Of (Statistics  unrelated  t o our everyday  definition  a  o c c u p y i n g one  "household",  according  of  or  However,  o f rooms o f h o t e l s ,  of housing need,  results  not  needs s t u d i e s , i s :  distinguishes  household".  considered to the  as  "household-dwelling"  of a l l t y p e s , are not  above d e f i n i t i o n s  people  U.N.•s  unrelated  a "collective  households..  one-person  "non-family households".  Should the  the  census  more  one-  accomodation.  i n recent Canadian  corresponds  not  those  want  A person or group of persons o c c u p y i n g one I t u s u a l l y c o n s i s t s of a f a m i l y group, with lodgers, employees, etc. H o w e v e r , i t may two o r more f a m i l i e s s h a r i n g a d w e l l i n g , o f u n r e l a t e d p e r s o n s o r o f one p e r s o n a l o n e . . Canada, 1972) This  and  "concealed  other  concept  households"  a large  Canadian  used  without children  dwellings  persisted  dwelling,  commonly  or  h o u s e h o l d s " ) , LESS t h r e e - g u a r t e r s o f  problems  "concealed  may  a  with  quite the  directly  planner i s compensate  4 3  for  omissions i n the The  U.N.  difficulties of  classification in  Different varying a to  age,  marital as  criteria  b)  as  and  a  i s , the  housing  reduced  by  more the  c)  categorizing  detiailed  housing  requirements  (i.e.,  the  planner  of the  region.  households  under  small.  In  i n the  recommends  U.N.  and  case  the  i s  cycle  i n terms unit).  manual  formed  each  type  life  primarily  type of dwelling  The newly  household  changes  the  are d i f f e r e n t i a t e d according  categories—a)  and  of  detailed  situation  categorizing  which  "Many  character  number o f c h i l d r e n .  three  number o f b e d r o o m s , and b)  That  that  C.C.S.D., a s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r ,  to the household's  housing  normative be  categories  for  out  can  the  stabilized,  used  the  recommend  status  few  points  t h e more p r e c i s e  describing  of eight  expanding,  to  employed,  typologies..  adopts  related  (P«.6)._  studies  minimum  with  household  classification"  be  publication  connected  definition  can  data.  directly  as  related  of the  size,  1  Overcrowding  variety  "Overcrowding"  i s another term  of  concept  existince  ways.. The  of  measures of  overcrowding u t i l i z e  per  floor  ratio  persons  per  space. . room  The  a ratio U.N.  i s suitable,  may  overcrowding  some n o r m o r s t a n d a r d w h i c h  persons of  of  which  be d e f i n e d  in  implies  the  i s surpassed.  of persons  p e r room  manual p o i n t s however,  i t  Common  out t h a t  can  not  or a be  *The H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n o f B r i t i s h Columbia has developed an interesting scheme which illustrates the s t a g e s of the l i f e c y c l e grouped a c c o r d i n g t o general housing demand preference (unconstrained by income) which i s d i s c u s s e d i n B±C± Housinq Q u a r t e r l y v o l . 1 , no. .2, O c t o b e r , 1978..  44  used  in  i t s  meaningless average is  aggregate  i f  under-occupied  over-occupied. data and  into  This  norm  which chosen  to  density  economic,  and  suggests  that  the  will  be  in  family  spaces  compensating  which  be  drawn  houses,  i n part  as  The  "between the  for the  latter  lack  are census  number o f  local U.N.  rooms  households.  different  upon  the  which  number o f p e r s o n s i n  dependant  concept  arranging  the  between  the  distinguishes  as t h o s e  indicate  conditions..  a distinction  and  o f t h e r e g i o n . .. T h e  a c c o m p l i s h e d by  distinguish  becomes  characterizing  as w e l l  rows which  climatic  flats  levels  cultural,  manual  also  overcrowding usually  of  have  of  habitable  that  a space-  in open  space"  9).  The per-person norm  be  indicate  occupation  (P,  may  the concept  index  i s collected  dwellings,  matrices, with  columns  The  data  i s ,  as an  i n a l l the dwellings  useful  number o f  That  i f i t i s calculated  density  most  form.  C.M.H.C. p u b l i c a t i o n  indicator  i s held  of  states  overcrowding  may  be  or  room-  misleading i f the  constant.  An a l t e r n a t i v e ... i s t h e space-per-person indicator where t h e norm v a r i e s w i t h t h e number o f p e r s o n s i n a household. I t allocates a certain basic amount of space to a one-person h o u s e h o l d and i n c r e a s e s t h i s square metrage f o r each additional person but in d e c r e a s i n g i r c r e m e n t s . . ( C . M . H . C , 1 9 7 8 , p. .18) A disadvantage treatment  of  recreational However, the  a  size  of  household A third  remains  with  space and  person-per-room  size  as  indicator,  approach  types--e.g.,  sleeping  rooms and  this  i s not  space  of  are  net  there i s egual room,  adjusted to  tied  t o space  persons-per-bedroom,  kitchen,  differentiated.  does not t a k e  easily  i s the i n d i c a t o r that  living  indicator as  in that  into  account  account  for  reguirements. may  also  be  45  employed,  however  person-per-room  i t  index  suffers  and c a n n o t  of  kitchen facilities, etc.  c)  Housing  two  losses,  reasons.  "... o c c u r related  t h e same d i s a d v a n t a g e  take  into  account  as a  the provision  Losses Housing  for  from  What t h e s e  randomly;  to  the  (p.. 13)..  Housing  disasters,  as  according t o Teplitz,  there  value, units  well  urban  lost  examples  of accidental  that  occur  losses", they  are  or c o n d i t i o n s of the unit"  destroyed  and s i m i l a r losses..  "accidental  evidence  due t o f i r e s ,  units  renewal,  term  i s no c l e a r occupants,  as  highways,  authors  et. a l . ,  floods, t o make  construction,  "Economic  and  natural  room  f o r new  are cited  losses",  as  on t h e o t h e r  hand, ... a r e w i l l f u l l y d e s t r o y e d e v e r y y e a r o r c o n v e r t e d t o o t h e r u s e s , s u c h a s p r o f e s s i o n a l o f f i c e s . . ... Their value has d e c l i n e d (or f a i l e d t o r i s e ) t o the p o i n t a t w h i c h o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s c a n make t e t t e r e c o n o m i c u s e o f the structure or the land. These u n i t s , r a t h e r than b e i n g a c c i d e n t a l l o s s e s , a r e c a s u a l t i e s of t h e ebb and flow of progress. ( T e p l i t z , e t . a l . , 1 9 7 3 , p . 13) In  distinguishing  housing  planner  occurrence, or  underlying  loss  distinguishing distinguish  2.  three  or other age,  public  two  causes  focus  of  attention  to extrapolating  statistics  which  housing upon  monitoring  trends have  losses,  from  not  the their  demolition  differentiated  causes. The  the  can  as opposed  housing  fire  these  A.I.P./H.U.D..  manual  between  of  t y p e s . : 1. n o r m a l  accidental  obsolescence, action  types  causes or  removals  also  housing  losses  They from  d e m o l i t i o n s due t o  status  "... r e s u l t i n g  losses.  "...resulting  cr involving  uneconomic  recommends  from  of  the  public  unit", programs  46  and  policies",  or s e v e r a l d)  and 3..mergers,  units  where two u n i t s  have been r e n o v a t e d  into  have  fewer  become  units  one  (p..23).  Vacancies The  U.N.  "vacancies" necessary  and  of  reserve  publication  manual  comments  determining of  vacant  differentiates  functional"  vacancies.  on t h e p r o b l e m  criteria  to  dwellings  between  i n  of  defining  determine  the  region.  This  a  "functional"  and  "non-  Functional vacancies are  ... t h o s e which may be r e g a r d e d a s b e i n g e f f e c t i v e l y i n t h e housing market. ... t h o s e newly constructed, free between tenancies, undergoing renovation, or d w e l l i n g s which a r e f r e e because o f temporary changes in housing requirements. (U.N. , 1 9 7 3 , p. .10) Non-functional taken  vacancies  fordifferent  location)  even  are  reasons  i f there i s a housing only  that  forming  the r e s e r v e of vacant that  functional  " i t i s  i n  which  (e.g., because  stress  state  "those  obvious  should  dwellings. that  of their  shortage"..  vacancies  o f v a c a n c i e s c a n be o f f e r e d  classifying  such  unfitness of  These  authors  be c o n s i d e r e d a s  Nonetheless,  no  definition  no i n t e r e s t i s  generally  they  also  acceptable  nor general c r i t e r i a f o r  d w e l l i n g s " (p. . 1 0 ) .  Summary The concepts  briefly  importance be  term—as  may  i n  a  housing  be t h e c a s e  "household"--or  i n  needs  other  defining  section,  t h e meaning study.  due t o a poor  when u t i l i z i n g  over-estimated—as In  with  this  understanding  be u n d e r - e s t i m a t e d  may  "vacancies".  associated  discussed  of clearly  employed  results  problems  cases,  results  four  i l l u s t r a t e the of the terms  to  I n some i n s t a n c e s , understanding  standard  probable  the  of  definitions  when  a of  considering  may b e m i s l e a d i n g — f o r  47  example,  re  aggregated overcome what  "housing index  each  term  which  are  cost",  "housing  5.  "overcrowding".  refers  rather  the concept.  "housing  of  even  to  than  Other  and  sets  s h o u l d be  i n t h e manuals reviewed, market  area",  an  may  clearly  t o encompass  the analyst  demand", " h o u s i n g  unit",  problems  planner  employing  one t e r m  terms  mentioned  by  meaningless—e.g., These  t o some e x t e n t i f t h e h o u s i n g  classifications of  losses"—or  be  states  of  detailed  a l l meanings wary o f , and  include  "housing  "housing  need",  "income".  PROJECTIONS The  forecasting  majority  periods.  of  t h e manuals reviewed  advocate  T h e a u t h o r s o f t h e H.S.A.G. r e p o r t  short write:  Medium and long-term forecasts of p o p u l a t i o n and households are not very r e l i a b l e . I t may t h e r e f o r e be more f r u i t f u l t o p l a c e l e s s e m p h a s i s on p r e d i c t i n g t h e f u t u r e i n d e t a i l , a n d more o n a t t e m p t i n g t o u n d e r s t a n d the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n . . Forecasts should n o t be made for a longer period than i s n e c e s s a r y as a b a s i s f o r a c t i o n , and f o r e c a s t s longer than t e n y e a r s s h o u l d n e v e r be a t t e m p t e d f o r h o u s i n g purposes. ( H . S . A . G . , 1 9 7 7 , p . 8) The  U.N.  report concurs  with this  view.  They  that  the r e l i a b i l i t y  of forecasts  the  time  the estimate, but also  size  of  delineated are  likely  span the  of region  for  under  declines  study.  The  point  out  not only according t o as a f u n c t i o n  of the  smaller  region  s t u d y i s , t h e more u n r e l i a b l e  t o be. .  also  the  housing  forecasts  48  Experiences f r o m many c o u n t r i e s p r o v e that estimates are fairly reliable f o r the p e r i o d of f i v e to seven years. The reliability of estimates for longer periods decreases rapidly. ... The m a i n r e a s o n why long-term f o r e c a s t s are l e s s accurate than forecasts for the whole country or f o r l a r g e r e g i o n s , are the u n c e r t a i n t i e s c a u s e d by m i g r a t i o n . (U.N., 1 9 7 3 , p..1 a n d p . .15) The do  Watson the  manual p r e s e n t s  other  a similar  manuals c i t e d )  that  a r g u m e n t , and  forecasts  be  proposes  (as  r e g u l a r l y updated.  Whilst population change can be fairly accurately p r e d i c t e d i n the short-term, long-term p r o j e c t i o n s are inevitably subject to considerable variation, d e p e n d i n g upon t h e a c c u r a c y o f the natural increase and migration assumptions that are incorporated. . I t i s t h e r e f o r e e s s e n t i a l that p r o j e c t i o n s are regularly revised, and that a range of assumptions should be adopted f o r longer term planning purposes. ... It must, however, be emphasised that concern f o r long t e r m f l e x i b i l i t y i n p l a n n i n g ... c a n n o t be a l l o w e d to detract from the urgency with which s o l u t i o n s are sought to present and immediate future needs. ( W a t s o n , 1 9 7 3 , p. 127) The The  manuals longest  states  that  present period  updating The  favours  range  reccmmended  r e v i s i o n s should  H.S.A.G. r e p o r t , and  a  of  be  of  recommended u p d a t i n g  i s that  of  the  undertaken  U.N.  each  periods.  ..manual  five  i n c o n t r a s t , recommends a c o n t i n u a l  years.  which The  monitoring  forecasts.  A.I.P./H.U.D.  inclusion  of  long  manual  term  is  the  only  report  projections:  Planning agencies, while greatly concerned with a v a i l a b l e short term a c t i o n , are a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e for t a k i n g a l o n g e r v i e w - - i d e n t i f y i n g problems t h a t can be solved i n t h e l o n g t e r m a n d s u g g e s t i n g new approaches or m o d i f i e d l e v e l s of e f f o r t which w i l l bear f r u i t in five to ten years or longer. ... s u g g e s t s the development of 10-year forecasts of housing requirements. ( A . I . P . / H . U . D . , 1 9 7 2 , p. 2)  which  49  6. V A L U E J U D G E M E N T S The  whole  numerous  value  evident  during  judgements.  the  development  are  also  such  process  the  "standard  "overcrowding". refer  normative  or  to a variety subjective  The  particularly  any terms ahich imply "adeguate  t h a t "a  (p.  standard, or  1,  a l l o f which  For  significant  important  a  Chapter  these  model,  judgements  housing",  of conditions,  even  "housing include  reasons, the  degree  of  citizen  i n defining  the normative  recommends  contacting  75).  H.S.A.G. p u b l i c a t i o n  of interested  i s  o f t h e C.C.S.D. h o u s i n g  judgements.  i s particulary  f o rthe analysis"  needs i n v o l v e s  g o a l s . . However, normative  housing",  C.C.S.D. . r e p o r t s t a t e s participation  this  As h a s b e e n d i s c u s s e d i n  n e e d " may  variety  stage  inherent i n defining  as  inputs  F o r example,  third  of housing  of assessing housing  parties  i n the development o f the  a  housing  n e e d s s t u d y. Consultation with a l l other public and private bodies—including t h e Housing Corporation, local housing associations, area health authorities, building societies, builders and voluntary organizations—whose activities have a bearing on l o c a l housing plans, i s also essential. Assumptions made as a result cf this consultation s h o u l d be clearly stated a n d made available to assist the planning of other public s e r v i c e s on w h i c h h o u s i n g p r o v i s i o n i m p i n g e s . . ( H . S . A . G . , 1 9 7 7 , p . 5) The judgements  A.I.P./H.U.D..  will  needs study..  manual  agrees  encompass a s i g n i f i c a n t  These a u t h o r s  write:  that  portion  normative  of the housing  50  ... t h e g o o d H o u s i n g M o d e l m u s t b e b u i l t as much on judgements a s on v e r i f i a b l e d a t a , and i t s c r e d i b i l i t y w i l l depend l a r g e l y upon how good these judgements a r e . . (A. I . P. /H. U. D. , 1 9 7 2 , p. 15) Unfortunately, arriving of  however, these  a t "good  t h e U.N.  authors  judgements".  study  which  states  do n o t s u g g e s t  A similar  criticism  methods o f  may b e  made  only:  The normative elements, which always reflect the s t r u c t u r e and changes o f s o c i e t y as w e l l a s i t s v a l u e orientation, determine not only the c r i t e r i a of unfitness of d w e l l i n g s , but penetrate even into the d e f i n i t i o n of the basic concepts. ( U . N . , 1 9 7 3 , p . .1)  11*. , S u m m a r y  o f F i n d i n g s from  What concering  Features  3.  of  should  The s t u d y  severe  findings for  The m a n u a l s r e v i e w e d  environment 2.  the  methodologies  studies? 1. .  are  be  should  housing  The  the  the_Manuals  local  agree  physical,  i n c l u d e an  a  local  surveyed  housing  social  needs  points:  and  economic  the study..  analysis  employ  literature  on t h e f o l l o w i n g  included within  should  the  conducting  problems o f s p e c i a l  study  of  of  the  needs groups clear  particularly  within  framework  the area.  o r model o f  analysis. . 4.  Terms and c o n c e p t s  5.  Results should  employed  s h o u l d be p r e c i s e l y  be m o n i t o r e d  and  updated  defined..  atleast  every  5  years. 6.  Value  housing The 1.  judgements  manuals  do n o t a g r e e  Geographic  Type  of assessing  need..  jurisdiction, 2..  are inherent i n the process  on t h e f o l l o w i n g  scope—housing  or census  of research  statistical  market  points: area,  area.  model—organizational or causal.  political  51  3..  Time  horizons  of p r o j e c t i o n s — s h o r t o r long  I Iii. - L i m i t a t i c n s ^ o f _the The to  derived  Theory  manuals as a whole p r e s e n t  t h e assessment from  of housing  the  term.  manuals  need. may  interesting  However, t h e body  approaches of  b e s e e n t o be l a c k i n g  theory on  three  counts. First, summary always  i ti s ambiguous.  of the f i n d i n g s agree  on how  practical  local  such  facing  alternative  i s  impossible  In to  households'  conducting  perform  local  housing  of  what  should (e.g.,  projections, i s  an  note  the  constraints  2.  process absence  how  not  format  of conducting of  complete may  by of  by t h e C . C . S . D . ) .  needs  derive for  agree  analysis  housing  discuss  to  may  task  an  facing  housing  explain  without  prescribed  as suggested  local  appropriate  the actual  study  research  do n o t p r e s e n t  needs s t u d i e s i s p r o v i d e d  a  conducting  they  they  providing  t h e m a n u a l s do  conducting  the  do n o t  account  do n o t  Although  find,  the  (e.g.,  of the p r a c t i c a l  Thirdly,  calculate  to  cases,  income and wealth  description  aspects  difficult  some  into  planners  chapter,  data.  methods t o c o m p l e t i n g  information.  fully  For example, t h e three i n this  the  conducted.  housing  studies..  i n some d e t a i l  data  be  manuals do n o t t a k e  t o overcome gaps i n a v a i l a b l e  that  3.  the  needs  models d i s c u s s e d how  o f t h e manuals above, t h e authors  constraints  housing  i s , as i s seen from  the studies should  Secondly, the  That  planners  i n Chapter  four  the study,  the study  be  3.  important  study—1. housing  A  how t o targets,  a n d 4.  how  undertaken  recommendations concerning  value  judgements) . These t h r e e the  thesis.  issues  are examined  in  the  remainder  53  STUDIES This studies  have  chapter been  will  review  conducted  Although  the  theory  discussed  i n Chapter  i n  of  conducting  and  to achieve Four  brief  to  housing conclude I.,  needs  studies  will  of  jurisdictions study's  and  program  achieve  both  level  of  the  practice  i s s u e s which  should  must be o v e r c o m e i n  the  needs.  housing  needs, s t u d y .  constraints,  The  of the studies  planner  Following a  10 C a n a d i a n  described.  RARELY  local  chapter  will  reviewed.  findings  chapter the  also may  BOUNDARIES OF  that  should  housing be t a k e n  be u s e d  AN  in  Often,  be  market into  ideally  determined area.  account  government  the by t h e  Political  i n order  housing  that  policy  however, i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o  objectives simultaneously. market area  municipalities.  of government  states  study  formulation.. these  CONFORM TO THE  JURISDICTION  region's  should  A housing neighbouring  be  summary  previous  scope  boundaries  housing  of these  of the i s s u e s  Constraints  POLITICAL  geographic  needs s t u d i e s  of housing  face  areas.  the actual  which  documentation  needs  urban  housing  studies,  difficulties  a local  HOUSING MARKET AREAS  The  local  constraints  o f each  with a brief  APPROPRIATE  the  a useful  undertake  Practical  1..  the  practical  discussion  housing  Canadian  the s t u d i e s points out further  addressed,  wishing  local  2, p r o v i d e s a g o o d b a c k g r o u n d  be c o n s i d e r e d i n p r e p a r i n g s u c h  order  ten  of c o n d u c t i n g  to  be  how  i s  not  usually I f  i n  a  place  e n c o m p a s s e s a number regional which  of  or metropolitan approximates  i n  54  spatial  terms  the  existing  agency  may  programs  or  be  very  to  conduct  they  boundaries be  cannot  studies,  adeguately within  A problem government  is  may  example,  regional  zoning  bylaws a  provincial  levels  which  Adeguate  opt  between  migration  regional  does  not  as  between  have  level  findings..  nor  (as  the  funding  t h e powers  have)  of  possess or  study's  when  to  the  the  either  conducting  For  change  funds  to  federal  or  solution  between  the the  political study  does  market area, or the l e v e l  the reguisite  different  inaccurate  have).  body  A compromise  be  a  scheme  housing  not possess  may  powers  the  arises  of the government  means t o a c t u p o n  must  often  various levels  of  be  of the  chosen  government,  j u r i s d i c t i o n s o f t h e same l e v e l  of  municipalities).  DATA  Insufficient planners  some m u n i c i p a l i t i e s  i t  municipalities  (e.g., neighbouring  2. , L A C K OF  to  implement  dilemma  findings.  government  will  i f  i f  of government  a  dees  as  of the study  market.  even  allcwnace  no and  account  legislative  requires cooperation  well  into  arise  c i r c u m s c r i b e the e n t i r e  study's  the  area,  study,  findings  governments r a r e l y  shelter  Thus  as  to  (as  implement  take  place,  and  resourcesnecessary  their  market  conduct  Should  the regional  in  administrative  government  to  t o implement..  separate  municipalities  not  available  the housing  p o l i c i e s recommended a s a r e s u l t  difficult  jurisdiction  of  conducting  relevant data local  serious  problem  for  needs  studies  i n Canada.  i n f o r m a t i o n i s often not a v a i l a b l e  to allow  researchers  discuss i n d e t a i l aspects  housing  i s a  of the area's  physical  and  social  55  environment, costs is  related  available  C.M.H.C.[s  of  The  Housing  the  the  that  i t includes  shelter  decennial  costs,  census  Census Census  other  of  and  topics  sources  ARE  a) t h e C e n s u s ,  records,  and  d)  Units  characteristics  Deriving  utilizing  definitions  planner  (e.g.,  census  i n  census  similar  to  household dwelling  (e.g.,  to  relate  patterns  which  are  2) . ..  and s h e l t e r  information  alone.  i s  vs."collective  "census  family"  household",  although  the next.  t o include  t o compare t h i s  Changes i n c e n s u s  tract  bulletins  t o the housing  may i n some c a s e s a i d t h e p l a n n e r  redefined  guickly  variables i s  Census  ofen not useful  Furthermore,  incomes,  units  meaningful trends of these  common-law), i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e census  of  Such  data  however  10 y e a r s ) i s c o m p l e t e i n  occupancy  tract..  "household"  definitions  5 years,  age).. I t i s d i f f i c u l t  census  Chapter  each  concerning  concerning  utilize  discussed  i spublished (once each  t h a n by c e n s u s  date.  possible  as  changes t o (e.g.,  couples data  the  living  from  one  b o u n d a r i e s pose  a  problem.  C.M.H.C.•s H o u s i n g  Statistics  C.M.H.C. p u b l i s h e s concerning rental  data  c) m u n i c i p a l  information  information  costs,  b)  Four  o f these  housing planners:  of Housing  number o f rooms, f a c i l i t i e s ,  1976  study.  Statistics  Canadian  only  not  Yet each  housing  Census The  out  incomes.  t o Canadian  C.M.H.C. ' s 1 9 7 4 S u r v e y a)  o f t h e housing s t o c k , and l o c a l  t o residents'  an i m p o r t a n t part  readily b)  thequality  housebuilding  apartment  units);  annually  activity mortgage  a  report  (including  lending  of  vacancy  activity;,  tables rates of  financing,  56  and  characteristics  the  N.H.A.;  of dwellings,  p r i c e and c o s t  loans,  and p a r t i c i p a n t s under  i n d i c e s ; and  across  housing  demand;  province  and m u n i c i p a l i t y . . These s t a t i s t i c e s  C.M.H.C. m o n t h l y available.  provide with  regional  Although  concerning  information  affordability.  c)  Municipal  a  size,  count  d)  which  local  derived  are  also  useful  housing  and  instances,  are  by from  readily  information  s e c t o r , i t does n o t  local  housing  need—i.e.,  stock,  overcrowding  o f the housing  records A review  provides  can  be  of local  used  demolitions  statistics,  1974 S u r v e y The  information  only  records  useful information  minimal  Onits  Study  concerning housing  the  concerning  of Housing S.H.O..  i n  affordability,  adequacy  housing  stock;  and  housing  stock  region.  as  However, s i m i l a r t o c a n be c o l l e c t e d need..  (S.H.U.) a variety  housing  of  of  useful  and ownerpatterns;  characteristics  arrangements metropolitan  very  rental  expenditure  and s u i t a b i l i t y  o f 23 C a n a d i a n  as w e l l  i n d i c a t o r s o f housing  characteristics  mortgage  augment  regarding the  units,  information  provides  stock;  to  building, demolition  a n d l o c a t i o n o f new a n d r e n o v a t e d  municipal  occupied  some  provides  indicates  municipal  permits  of  C.M.H.C.'s from  which  statistics.  conversion  type,  the  i n  change  Records  Local  and  data  to the gualtiy  or  C.M.H.C.'s  i n  and,  reports,  this  activity  respect  Canada  population  for  areas..  ofthe  owner-occupied  57  ... t h e objectives were to relate dwelling unit characteristics and occupant characteristics by individual household, t o f a c i l i t a t e understanding of the adjustment process of households to dwelling units, t o l e a r n why h o u s e h o l d s c h a n g e t h e i r p a t t e r n s of h o u s i n g consumption, and t o p r o v i d e data relating demographic and economic v a r i a b l e s a t more f r e q u e n t i n t e r v a l s and i n q r e a t e r detail than the decennial Census. ( C . M . H . C , 1 9 7 4 , p . 1) Nonetheless,  two  S.H.U.. S t u d y . study's  First,  according compare  to  as  problem  of  money.  For  lack  dwelling  of  environments.  l  can  not  be  disaqgregated  i s  very  difficult to  t o any  was c o m p l e t e d made  other  data  sources.  i n 1 9 7 4 , i t i s now  t o update  out of  the survey.  teams to  of  planner  data  researchers  document  the  shelter  particular,  neighbourhoods*  However, such 1  a survey  such  a  overcome  sufficient  time  the and  could  conduct  a  structural  quality  of  c o s t t o income  ratios,  physical  i s unrealistic  L o c a l government  t o undertake  could  given  households*  of the exercise. or s t a f f  the housing relevant  survey  units,  attributes  of  example,  comprehensive  funds  data  i t  Census  RESOURCES  Conceivably,  cost  the  Thus,  with  the  coincide  No p l a n s h a v e b e e n  LIMITED  delineate  not  o f t h e survey  study  to  do  municipality.  the  chosen  areas  and  the findings  Second,  3.  Areas  a r e i n h e r e n t i n use o f t h e  the boundaries  metropolitan  Metropolitan  date..  major d i f f i c u l t i e s  agencies  massive  and  social  given  rarely  research  and  the  have t h e project.  The Northern Municipal Council of Saskatchewan completed a comprehensive h o u s i n g n e e d s s u r v e y i n 1977 which reguired 17 field staff workers, 7 staff from t h e I n s t i t u t e of N o r t h e r n S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y of Saskatchewan, i n a d d i t i o n t o the p l a n n i n g s t a f f o f t h e N.M.C. T h e s t u d y t o o k 1 y e a r t o c o m p l e t e a t a c o s t o f $ 3 2 0 , 0 0 0 , i n o r d e r t o s u r v e y 1,753 h o m e s l o c a t e d i n s c a t t e r e d communities within the region.  58  The  time  required  important due or  to  undertake  c o n s i d e r a t i o n , as f i n d i n g s  t o changes  i n the local  s e n i o r government  can provide  housing  need.  results  i n  More t i m e a longer  the region's  housing  planner  work  done  housing  needs study  can g u i c k l y market,  become  migration  between t h e amount o f d e t a i l  a n d money a l l o c a t e d and l e s s  housing  ( i n common provides  outdated  programs.  b e made  delay  i s an  patterns,  vs. i t s u l t i m a t e usefulness toward  solving  the  housing  housing  A t r a d e o f f must study  a  with  just  alleviating  t o housing  money a v a i l a b l e  problems.  At  a l l planners)  adeguate  some must  a  research  to actually point,  the  conclude  that  information to achieve i t s  objectives. 4.  INADEQUATE  THEORY  Current study the  theory  discussed i n Chapter implications  planner  posed The  aspects  by  o f t h e above  theory  also  which  2..how  t o d e r i v e housing  format  f o r the study.  review  of  Canada,  current  actual  i s a useful  field.  researchers  into  constraints.  deciding  how  theory  local  not  housing  to  needs account  Thus t h e  overcome  needs  three  the  i s inadeguate needs  important  study—L.how  a n d 3. w h a t i s a n  housing  source  discuss  projections are important  targets,  a n d why,  appropriate  i n these  studies  to  respects, a  conducted  i n  of information f o r future research i n  The f o l l o w i n g have  take  housing  mentioned  does  a local  projections,  As  a local  them.  of conducting  calculate  t o conduct  2, d o e s n e t f u l l y  i s " o n h i s / h e r own" i n  problems  this  o n how  succeeded  section i n  of this  overcoming  chapter the  examines  how  constraints  59  discussed  above.  II. .Ten CanadianLgcal The in  this  of  their  Housing.Needs_Studies  t e n Canadian  local  chapter are presented  housing  needs s t u d i e s d e s c r i b e d  i n order of increasing  m e t h o d o l o g i e s . . The s t u d i e s  t o be r e v i e w e d a r e :  1. HALIFAX Housing City of D e c . 1 9 7 5 , p r e p a r e d by J . P h i l i p s - C l e l a n d 2. . CORNWALL Municipality of Cornwall, R. H u n t e r  complexity  Housing February  Halifax,  P o l i c y (Phase I I ) 1978, p r e p a r e d by  3. VICTORIA - Housing, i n M e t r o p o l i t a n , V i c t o r i a _ ^ P h a s e I and_IIj_ Capital Regional DistrictT J u l y 1976 a n d J a n u a r y 1977 4. WATERLOO - H o u s i n g ..Needs:.,, A n _ A p p r a i s a l _ 1976 - 19 8 1 R e g i o n a l M u n i c i p a l i t y Of W a t e r l o o , 1979 5. W I N N I P E G - H o u s i n g in_Winni£ecj City of 1 9 7 9 , p r e p a r e d by P . . B a r n a r d a n d A s s o c i a t e s 6. VANCOUVER C i t y of Vancouver, P. M o n d o r  Winnipeg,  Understanding Vancouver's Housing 1979, p r e p a r e d by A. M c A f e e a n d  7. QUEBEC - H a b i t e r Au Q u e b e c G c u v e r n e m e n t d u Q u e b e c , 1976, p r e p a r e d by G r o u p e de T r a v a i l s u r 1 • h a b i t a t i o n , G. R. L e g a u l t , D i r e c t o r 8. . OTTAWA-CARLETON Housing i n Ottawa-Carleton Regional Municipality of Ottawa-Carleton, 1976, p r e p a r e d by P a t e r s o n P l a n n i n g and R e s e a r c h , and Comay P l a n n i n g C o n s u l t a n t s 9.. ALBERTA - Low I n c o m e H o u s i n g C a l g a r y and Edmonton, Alberta Works, C.M.H.C, 1978, p r e p a r e d Associates  i n A l b e r t a C i t i e s of Housing and Public by Clayton Research  1 0 . . M E T R O P O L I T A N TORONTO - Low I n c o m e H o u s i n a : M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o , 1977 The f o l l o w i n g geographic  scope,  and  ten charts outline cost  of  each  Rental_Assisted  the purpose,  study,  format,  and d e s c r i b e t h e  60  salient  issues  employed.. greater to  Each  detail  footnote  presented only  this  space  thesis.  not  should  information  which  a  clear  methodologies  i n the  which  of  consult  the  understanding  a  the  require  contained  i n the the  cf  w i t h i n each  of  be  first  also  used  Due  to in  that  noted.  The  sufficient  to  data  studies  to  than  study  issues,  the  included  detail  should  the  be  clarify  approach  time.)  can  are  explained  study  second  specific  been  Notes to  greater  the  Notes  Cornwall  in  correspond studies  income"  studies  however,  the  have not  "reguired  who  i s provided,  These Notes  the  the  methodologies which e x p l a i n  complexity,  explained  a l l details  Notes  As  although  not  and  chart.  i s discussed  and,  by  study.  methodologies  Readers  provided,  allow  the  increasing  affordability Halifax,  sources  followed  (For e x a m p l e , as  approach, i t i s  limited the  of  t e r m s and  on  i s  h i g h l i g h t s of  order  previously. assessing  chart  data  numbers i n c l u d e d  in  those  chart  discussed,  sources reviewed.  and  61  CHART  1:  HALIFAX  - H o u s i n g , C i t y of H a l i f a x , J. Philips-Cleland.  Purpose  "to bring together market c o n d i t i o n s ; demand i n H a l i f a x "  Format  length  -  tables, Geographic Cost  2.  3.  nontechnical  maps of  Area  Demographic Analysis  Quantity Housing  Quality Housing  Stock  -  39  Halifax  Issues  visual and  Stock  Suitability Housing Stock  5.  Affordability  Discussed  outlying  of  -  yes^  important  suburbs  Needs  Sources  -vacancy rates (apts.) -demolitions, conversions -tenure  CMHC H o u s i n g  -age  -family  -housing Special  Data  Census  (not  points  no  clear)  Census  income  Aspects of L o c a l -employment Environment  linear  projection  linear  projection  1951-71  municipal  Stats,  permits  Census  Census  1971  r e a l estate agents local newspaper c l a s s i f i e d ads  choice  -public housing (low income) - m i l i t a r y housing -senior citizen housing -student housing  Methodology  1951-71  condition survey previously published CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s , municipal permits  -ownership cost -rental cost  7.  some  language  emphasis  -population past trends -population projections -househ.old past trends -household projections  -external  4.  6.  by  a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k a n d p r e s e n t , p a s t and f u t u r e h o u s i n g needs and (p.l)  pages  City  prepared  unknown  Topic 1.  Scope  77  graphs,  1975i  windshield  adjusted for inflation interview survey required  related  personnel  interview  related related  personnel personnel  interview interview  related  personnel  interview  Census principal  employers  survey  income  (1)  linear projection interview  62  CHART  HALIFAX  1:  Topic 8.  Area  Housing Requirements  9.  Targets  10.  C o s t of Acting Analysis  11.  Other  (cont'd) Issues  Discussed  Data  Sources  t r a d i t i o n a l method(2) apts.=1-3 p e r s o n s / household other=^+ p e r s o n s / household  - t o t a l n o . 1975-81 -type (apts. or "other")  -annual  1976-81  -mortgage market - s a l e s market  Methodology  Requirements  major major  data  lenders developers  annual  average  interview interview  63  NOTES TO CHART  1: HALIFAX  1 . „ An e s t i m a t e o f t h e a f f o r d a b i l i t y problem establishing t h e r e q u i r e d income necessary dwelling a t specified costs.  i s p r o v i d e d by t o own o r r e n t a  Step 1 . . E s t a b l i s h c r i t e r i a f o r " a f f o r d a b l e housing" as 27% o f m o n t h l y i n c o m e f o r r e n t a l u n i t s , a n d 2.5 t i m e s a n n u a l i n c o m e f o r ownership units. Step 2. Determine what i n c o m e i s r e q u i r e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e c r i t e r i a a n d what percentage of t h e region's population i s w i t h i n e a c h i n c o m e g r o u p . . The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e i s d e r i v e d :  INCOME  GROUP  PERCENTAGE HALIFAX POPULATION  1.0 2. 0  u n d e r $2000  $2000 - $2999 $25,000+ Table  1:  ii! R e q u i r e d Income  MONTHLY under  RENT  $45  $^5 - $67  0  $562+  HOUSE  PRICE  under  $5000  $5000 - $7500 $62!500+  Approach—Halifax.  S t e p 3. The a u t h o r s s t a t e t h a t t h e s e f i g u r e s c a n b e c o m p a r e d t o actual s h e l t e r c o s t s i n o r d e r t o e s t i m a t e "what t y p e o f h o u s i n g H a l i g o n i a n s c a na f f o r d and t h e areas i nwhich they c a na f f o r d t o live". (This step i s not completed w i t h i n t h e report.) 2. The t r a d i t i o n a l method t o 'determining total number o f h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s i s t h e t o t a l sum o f : a ) p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e in number o f h o u s e h o l d s , b) t h e e x p e c t e d n u m b e r o f d e m o l i t i o n s to occur i nthe period (i.e., replacement units), and c) an additional number of units t o allow f o r a reasonable vacancy r a t e ( c o m m o n l y s e t a t 3%) . .  64  CHART  2: CORNWALL -  Housing P o l i c y p r e p a r e d by R.  (Phase I I ) , Hunter.  Municipality  of  Cornwall,  1978;  Purpose  1. D e t e r m i n e a p p r o p r i a t e r o l e o f t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y i n t h e l o c a l housing market. 2. R e v i e w m u n i c i p a l p o l i c i e s a n d a s s e s s t h e i r relevance. 3. S t u d y p a s t p o p u l a t i o n a n d h o u s i n g t r e n d s t o w a r d the determination of d e s i r e a b l e and r e a l i s t i c r e s i d e n t i a l development t a r g e t s . 4. N o t e m a j o r o p p o r t u n i t i e s a n d c o n s t r a i n t s t o a c h i e v i n g t a r g e t s . 5- O u t l i n e f e a s i b l e a p p r o a c h e s t o h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t t h a t a r e both f e a s i b l e and under m u n i c i p a l c o n t r o l .  Format  length  -  tables, Geographic Cost  2.  3'  Scope  City  nontechnical  maps  of  -  36  Cornwall  Area  Demographic Analysis  Quantity Housing  Quality Housing  Stock  Stock  4.  Suitability Housing Stock  5.  Affordability  language  v i s u a l emphasis (includes  " Issues  Discussed  Sources  - p o p u l a t i o n by age group -persons per household -type of household -population projections -household projections  Census  -type  Census 1971 CMHC H o u s i n g Census CMHC H o u s i n g  of  unit  -tenure -starts, complet i o n s by u n i t type -demolitions, conversions  1966,  Census  ' Methodology  survival  headship rate  1961-76  municipal municipal  (1)  (2)  Stats. Stats.  permits permits  Financial Post "Survey of M a r k e t s " 1976-77 Revenue Canada Ontario Welfare Council F i n a n c i a l Post Ontario Stats, study previously published  choice  no  area)  cohort  - p e r s o n a l income (percentage p o p u l a t i o n by income c l a s s )  -housing  -  Census  survey previously published CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s .  -rents  points  19?li  -areas i n need of rehab, -age  -no. f a m i l i e s by income c l a s s -average house price  yes  ~  Data  1976  -  important  housing market  unknown Topic  1.  82 p a g e s graphs,  l o c a l newspaper c l a s s i f i e d ads  annual  average  1966-76  windshield  survey  average s e l l i n g price for 2 subdivisions  1967-76  survey  required  income  65  CHART 2s CORNWALL ( c o n t ' d ) Topic 6. S p e c i a l  Area Needs  Issues Discussed -senior citizens -low income families -mother-led families -physically, mentally disabled  Data waiting waiting  Sources  Methodology  lists lists  Social Service dept.  interview  ?. A s p e c t s o f L o c a l Environment 8. H o u s i n g Requirements  - t o t a l no. 1976-81  9. T a r g e t s (3)  -new c o n s t r u c t i o n - a s s i s t e d housing  requirements CMHC s t a f f  -renovations  CMHC s t a f f  -by  t r a d i t i o n a l method apply current ratio  tenure  -serviced  land  data  unit allocation method (4) unit allocation method minimum 3 - y e a r supply o f l o t s  10. C o s t o f Acting Analysis 11.  Other  -land  available  -municipal participation i n s e n i o r govt, programs  m u n i c i p a l r e c o r d s undeveloped l a n d zoned r e s i d e n t i a l descriptive  66  NOTES TO  CHABT 2:  CORNWALL  1. Population projections u t l i l i z e t h e c o h o r t - s u r v i v a l method which estimates future population according t o a g e g r o u p by taking i n t o account assumptions concerning f e r t i l i t y , m o r t a l i t y , and migration rates. For a detailed explanation of this procedure, see Hightower, " P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s " i n P r i n c i p l e s and P r a c t i c e o f Urban P l a n n i n g W. G o o d m a n ( e d . ) . , W a s h i n g t o n , D.C.: I n t e r n a t i o n a l C i t y Managers A s s o c i a t i o n , 1968, pp. . 51-75. 2. Household p r o j e c t i o n s a r e d e r i v e d by employing t h e h e a d s h i p ratemethod . A headship rate or ratio i s defined as the p r o p o r t i o n of t h e population t h a t i s a household head. As t h e propensity of household formation v a r i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y according t o a g e , a g e - s p e c i f i c h e a d s h i p r a t e s a r e d e v e l o p e d . . T h e s e may b e based upon p a s t t r e n d s o r may i n t e g r a t e a s s u m p t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g future conditions (e.g., due t o l i k e l y increased divorce and separation rates, the heaship r a t e f o r t h o s e aged 30-35 w i l l increase i n the future). These rates are then applied to p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s a c c o r d i n g t o age group i n o r d e r t o d e r i v e t h e number o f f u t u r e h o u s e h o l d s . 3. Cornwall's summary o f h o u s i n g t a r g e t s i s p r e s e n t e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g page. The t o t a l number o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n units (800) corresponds t o housing reguirements derived using the t r a d i t i o n a l method. These a r e then disagregated by applying "the following d i s t r i b u t i o n [which] i s considered desireable t o 1981: 70% s i n g l e detached, 20% semi-detached, 10% row a n d apartments" (p. 3 9 ) . 4. . The assisted housing targets a r e d e r i v e d by e s t i m a t i n g likely p r o v i n c i a l and f e d e r a l government housing subsidies through consultation with senior government s t a f f . Reliance upon s e n i o r l e v e l s o f government t o e s t a b l i s h t a r g e t s has been termed t h e u n i t a l l o c a t i o n method.  C i t y o f Cornwall Summary o f H o u s i n g T a r g e t s ,  1978  t o 1981  1  Total  1978  1979  1980  1981  Units  800  200  200  200  200  detached  560  145  115  150  150  160  45  35  40  40  80  10  50  10  10  160  40  40  40  40  50  —  —  New C o n s t r u c t i o n Dwelling Single  Semi-detached Row & a p a r t m e n t Assisted  Housing  AHOP-HOME P.A.R.P.  2  3  -  Senior  50  -  Family  —  Serviced  Rent  — —  Land  Registered Plans (# o f l o t s ) Existing  —  800  200  200  200  200  —  —  —  —  40  40  40  40 110  Housing  Supplement  Senior  —  Family  160  Rehabilitation  1  710  200  200  200  RRAP  270  90  90  90  OHRP  440  110  110  110  110  240  60  60  60  60  (Rental) 1.  Refer  2.  I n d i c a t e s p e r c e n t a g e o f homes c o n s t r u c t e d s h o u l d be e l i g i b l e f o r a s s i s t a n c e .  to relevant sections f o r details.  3.  P.A.R.P. and Rent Supplement a r e n o t t obe c o n s i d e r e d f i n a l t a r g e t s u n t i l a f t e r t h e s u r v e y t o be u n d e r t a k e n by t h e M i n i s t r y o f H o u s i n g i s c o m p l e t e d (May 1978) .  f o r ownership which  Table 2s Housing T a r g e t s — C o r n w a l l .  63  CHART 3 :  VICTORIA  -  Housing i n Metropolitan V i c t o r i a Capital  Purpose  Format  length  3.  4.  5.  -  Scope  Ph. I, 78 p a g e s Ph. I I , 62 p a g e s g r a p h s , maps 59 Victoria  Census  Area  Demographic Analysis  Quantity Housing  Quality Housing  Stock  Stock  Suitability Housing Stock Affordability  Issues  and  II),  nontenhninal langnagp - ypn v i s u a l emphasis important p o i n t s Metropolitan  Discussed  -population past trends -population projections -household past trends -household projections  -  no  Area  Special  Needs  Data  Census  Sources  cohort  headship  -physical condition - b y income and tenure -age  S.H.U.  -unit size/ household  S.H.U.  - b y income and tenure -by age, tenure and h o u s e h o l d type -projection to  -senior  citizens  - p r o j e c t i o n low income e l d e r l y h o u s e h o l d s by tenure, household size  survival  Census  CMHC H o u s i n g CMHC H o u s i n g  size  Methodology  1951-71  -dwelling starts -government assisted housing by t y p e -no. of bedrooms -tenure  1986  6.  I  $80,000  Topic  2.  (Phase  1976-77  E s t a b l i s h r e g i o n a l and l o c a l t a r g e t s by t y p p n f h n n s i n g , tenure and p r i c e r e l a t i v e to r e a l s h e l t e r needs and h o u s e h o l d incomes. 2. Evaluate existing programs. 3Recommend i m p r o v e m e n t s t o p r i v a t e a n d p u b l i c l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t practices. 4. I n v e s t i g a t e a n d recommend i n n o v a t i o n s o f h o u s i n g f o r m s and servicing standards. N . B . : Purpose achieved only i n p a r t . Intended Phase I I I of s t u d y w i l l n o t be c o m p l e t e d .  Geographic  1.  District,  1.  tables,  Cost  Regional  rate  Stats. Stats.  S.H.U. Census  S . H . U. Census  Census  1971  1971  minimum occupancy  standard(l)  S.H.U. S.H.U. Census  1971  S . H . U. Census 1971 household projections studies previously published Corporate Planning D i v . , CMHC O t t a w a  income/expenditure a p p r o a c h (2)  69  CHART 3:  VICTORIA  Topic  Area  (cont'd) Issues  Discussed  7. A s p e c t s o f L o c a l Environment  -economic  outlook  8. H o u s i n g Requirements  -summary current needs (3) - t o t a l n o . 1976-86  Data  Sources  D e p t . Manpower and Immigration  modified traditional method (4) density assumptions  -by type and l a n d requirements -by q u a l i t y  -by household and tenure - b y age g r o u p tenure  9.  Targets  10.  C o s t of Acting Analysis  11.  Other  -land  (5) a p p l y 1976 r a t i o s of inadequate housing to housing stock projections a p p l y 1976 r a t i o s  type  a p p l y 1976 r a t i o s to population projections  and  - b y income group 1976-86 (6) -program options  requirements  - i n v e n t o r y and analysis vacant land -analysis federal govt, programs (AHOP, A R P )  Methodology  available senior govt, program guidelines  B.C. Dept. Housing Regional  of  Plan  land consumption by t y p e of dwelling s e r i e s o f map overlays survey of developers and l e n d i n g institutions  70  NOTES TO CHART 3 :  VICTORIA  1. A minimum o c c u p a n c y s t a n d a r d i s used s u i t a b i l i t y of t h e housing stock as f o l l o w s : Step size  1. H o u s e h o l d s b y s i z e a r e a s s i g n e d by number o f bedrooms. The minimum  to  a minimum d w e l l i n g requirements are:  1 2 3 4 5 6 7+  1 2 3 3 4 4+  Size—Victoria.  S t e p 2. T h e a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d stock size i s presented. This data  UNIT SIZE bachelor, l b d .  2bd. 3bd.  i s then  matched a s  "A" HOUSING STOCK  15.415 13.990  .8,440  MINIMUM  "B" REQUIREMENTS  29.592  5.247  4,344  43,097  T a b l e 4 : Minimum Occupancy  Standard—Victoria.  Total  size  and  housing  follows:  5,252 43,097  4+bd.  unit  bachelor  T a b l e 3 : Minimum D w e l l i n g U n i t  3.  the  MINIMUM NO. BEDROOMS  PERSONS/HOUSEHOLD  Step  determine  3.914  "A - B"  -14,177 8,743 4 , 096 1.338  0  According t o t h i s t a b l e , 1 4 , 1 7 7 1- a n d 2 - p e r s o n h o u s e h o l d s a r e "overhoused", as they currently occupy units of 2 or more bedrooms. . I t i s u n c l e a r from this d a t a , h o w e v e r , how many additional households a r e "overhoused" a n d how many are "underhoused", as t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f those households occupying larger or smaller units than i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e q u i r e d ,i s unknown. The a u t h o r s o f t h e s t u d y c o n c l u d e " . . . i t does point out t h e need f o r governments to collect much m o r e r e f i n e d h o u s i n g s t a t i s t i c s ... t h a t w i l l a l l o w t h e m to carefully plan housing production by s i z e o f u n i t s , as w e l l a s t o t a l s t a r t s "  71  (p. 1 8 ) . 2.. T h e i n c c m e / e x p e n d i t u r e a p p r o a c h t o e s t i m a t i n g t h e e x t e n t o f the affordability, problem i n t h e f u t u r e e s t a b l i s h e s t h e number of h o u s e h o l d s c u r r e n t l y s p e n d i n g i n e x c e s s o f some percentage (in t h i s i n s t a n c e , 3 5 % ) o f t h e i r i n c o m e on h o u s i n g a c c o r d i n g t o the age of household head. These r a t i o s a r e then applied to household projections. 3. the  A c o n c i s e summary r e p o r t as f o l l o w s :  of current  hgusing_needs  i s presented i n  SUMMARY OF HOUSING NEEDS IN VICTORIA CMA - 1976 - PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION Total  Stock  T o t a l Stock Adequate  T o t a l Stock Inadequate  100.0%  95.7%  4.3%  T o t a l U n i t s Without Af f o r d a b i l i t y Problem  83.0%  89.6%  3.4%  T o t a l U n i t s With A f f o r d a b i l i t y Problem  17.0%  16.1%  Total  ( R e p r e s e n t s H o u s i n g Needs i n V i c t o r i a CMA  Table  5:  Summary  of  Current  Housing  0.9% i n 1976)  Needs—Victoria.  T h e t a b l e s h o w s t h a t o n l y C.9% o f t h e t o t a l housing stock i s both physically inadeguate a n d w i t h an a f f o r d a b i l i t y problem. The m a j o r h o u s i n g p r o b l e m i n V i c t o r i a i s a f f o r d a b i l i t y a s 1 6 . 1 % physically adequate u n i t s have an a f f o r d a b i l i t y p r o b l e m — i . e . , the u n i t ' s r e s i d e n t s a r e s p e n d i n g o v e r 3 5 % o f t h e i r income on shelter.. 4. The m o d i f i e d _ t r a d i t i o n a l method i s t h e same as t h e t r a d i t i o n a l m e t h o d , e x c e p t t h a t t h e number of c u r r e n t l y poor quality units i s taken into a c c o u n t . , These "replacement requirements" a r e added to the traditional method total (expected increase i n number o f h o u s e h o l d s , p l u s d e m o l i t i o n s , plus vacancy allowance).. 5. T o t a l h p u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d by t y p e and land requirements by a p p l y i n g d e n s i t y assumptions a c c o r d i n g t o the age of household head. Step  1.. E s t a b l i s h 3 d e n s i t y c a t e g o r i e s a s f o l l o w s : a) l o w d e n s i t y = sinqle family, semidetached, and duplex units at 5 units/acre b) medium density = row a n d g a r d e n a p a r t m e n t s up t o  72  t h r e e s t o r e y s a t 20 u n i t s / a c r e c) h i g h d e n s i t y = a p a r t m e n t s at units/acre. Step  2.  Assign  densities to different  A G E OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD  Table  6:  0%  S t e p 3.. A p p l y t h e s e to determine future land reguirements.  INCREASE  1976 - 1986  GROUP  Future Housing  1976  low moderate high Total Table  8:  LOW  0 4, 000 3.825 0 7.825  1.450 8,000 5.100 17.750 32.300  Total  INCOME  Future Housing  HIGH  100$ 25% 0% 25%  Assumptions—Victoria.  15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 54 55+ ?:  50  d e n s i t i e s t o household projections i n order h o u s i n g r e g u i r e m e n t s by d e n s i t y , and f u t u r e  A G E OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD  Table  at  age groups. .  0% 25% 25% 75%  75% 0%  Density  storeys  DENSITY: MEDIUM  LOW  15 - 24 24 - 34 35 - 54 55+  4+  R e q u i r e m e n t s by  INADEQUATE UNITS  R e q u i r e m e n t s by  HIGH  0 2, 000 1.275 13.310 16,585  1,450 2, 000 0 4,400 7.890  Density-- V i c t o r i a .  1976 - 86 GROWTH IN.HOUSEHOLDS  2,085 850 539 3.474  DENSITY: MEDIUM  10,760 10,760 10,760 32,280 Income  TOTAL  12,845 11,610 11,300 35.755  G r o u p - -V i c t o r i a .  ANNUALLY  1,288 1,146 1,146 3.580  73  CHART 4 :  WATERLOO -  Housing Needs: Municipality  Purpose  1.  length  -  tables, Geographic Cost  t e x t , 60 p a g e s a p p e n d i x , 67 p a g e s g r a p h s , maps - 30  Scope  Demographic Analysis  Quantity Housing  Stock  3-  Quality Housing  Stock  5.  Issues  Discussed  (7  -  municipalities)  Data  Sources  Methodology cohort  survival  headship  rate  -type -tenure, includes condominiums -starts, completions  CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s . CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s , municipal permits CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s .  -comparison s e l e c t e d wages vs. housing costs  CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s . Canadian Statistical Review estimates from realtors, builders social services dept. S . H . U. inc ome/expenditure "Guides for Family approach Budgetting", budget approach(1) Social Planning C o u n c i l of Toronto a p p l y 1974 ratios to household projections survey previously published  Suitability Housing Stock Affordability  -projection 1981  to  -rents Special  Needs  -senior  citizens  -mother-led families 7.  Waterloo  -population projections -household projections  -by income, tenure, household type, age o f h o u s e h o l d head  6.  n o n t e c h n i c a l language - ves v i s u a l emphasis important p o i n t s yes ( i t a l i c script)  R e g i o n a l M u n i c i p a l i t y of  Area  2.  k.  Regional  1979.  unknown  Topic 1.  Waterloo,  E x p l o r e t r e n d s i n c o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , h o u s e h o l d f nrma+.i o n , h o u s i n g s u p p l y a n d h o u s i n g c o s t as a f f e c t the h o u s i n g m a r k e t . R e v i e w n e e d f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n t o 1 9 8 1 . O u t l i n e i m p l i c a t i o n s of trends and p r o j e c t i o n s f o r consumers, builders, planners, social services, m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and senior governments.  2. 3.  Format  A n A p p r a i s a l 1976-1981,  of  social dept. Census S . H . U.  services 1976  A s p e c t s of L o c a l Environment  8. H o u s i n g ' Requirements  - t o t a l n o . new units -by tenure(2)  traditional adjusted ratios  method  1976  74  CHART 4:  WATERLOO  Topic 8.  9.  10.  i  Area  Issues  Discussed  Housing Requirements (cont'd)  -sinele senior citizens (3)  Targets  -by  Cost  Other  Data  Sources  -mother-led families  municipality  requirements  data apply share of projected population growth  Analysis -land  supply  Methodology budget approach income/expenditure approach budget approach income/expenditure approach  of  Acting 11.  (cont'd)  previously published  study  75  NOTES TO CHART  4:  WATERLOO  1. The b u d g e t ^ a p p r o a c h u s e d t o estimate the extent of the affordability p r o b l e m , c o n s i d e r s h o u s e h o l d s i z e , t h e age o f t h e h o u s e h o l d h e a d , number a n d a g e s o f c h i l d r e n , a l t e r n a t i v e h o u s i n g c o s t s and budget c o s t s " f o r adequate family functioning" (as opposed t o c o s t s o f t h e " b a s i c s t o s u r v i v e " , p.2.9). Step 1.. Utilize the Social Planning Council of Toronto's p u b l i c a t i o n " G u i d e s f o r F a m i l y B u d g e t t i n g " (1976) w h i c h m e a s u r e s the cost of requirements f o r food, clothing, transportation, home upkeep, health and personal care; discretionary e x p e n d i t u r e s such as e d u c a t i o n , recreation, alcohol, tobacco; and home and u t i l i t y expenses f o r alternative accomodation a c c o r d i n g t o s i z e and age c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f h o u s e h o l d s . Step 2. Substitute local costs f o r any i t e m s which are e s p e c i a l l y s e n s i t i v e t o l o c a l e . . S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r i c e i n d i c e s may b e u s e d a s a g u i d e . Step 3.. Update t h e 1976 f i g u r e s i n c r e a s e i n t h e consumer p r i c e i n d e x .  by  applying  the average  S t e p 4. Compare r e s u l t s t o p r e s e n t and p r o j e c t e d incomes o f t h e r e g i o n ' s h o u s e h o l d s t o e s t i m a t e t h e number of households who cannot a f f o r d s u i t a b l e housing i n c o n j u n c t i o n with o t h e r budget requirements.. 2. The d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s b y t e n u r e i s b a s e d upon a s s u m p t i o n s o f a number o f s o c i o - e c o n o m i c trends seen to i n f l u e n c e whether a household w i l l p r e f e r an ownership o r r e n t a l unit i n the future. A s s u m p t i o n s a r e made c o n c e r n i n q q r o u p s o f h o u s e h o l d s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e age o f h o u s e h o l d head.. F o r example, the authors state: The 1 9 8 1 f o r e c a s t of probability of ownership f o r households a g e d 15 t o 24 i s 1 4 . 0 % . T h i s d e c l i n e from the 1976 a c t u a l h a s been predicted because i t i s expected that t h i s g r o u p w i l l be more s u s c e p t i b l e t o unemployment and j o b u n c e r t a i n t i e s . Also, government programs t o a s s i s t home o w n e r s h i p a r e n o t e x p e c t e d t o be a s f i n a n c i a l l y a t t r a c t i v e t o f i r s t t i m e purchasers as t h e y have been i n t h e p a s t , (p. 9) These r a t i o s a r e then household head.  applied  t o household  3.. Housing reguirements f o rsingle determined as f o l l o w s : Step  1.  Calculate  budget  of  a  projections  senior  single  citiizens senior  by age o f  have  been  citizen  who  76  receives O l d Age S e c u r i t y , Guaranteed G u a r a n t e e d A n n u a l Income Needs Supplement of households with an annual d e f i c i t .  Income Supplement, and and determine number  S t e p 2. U t i l i z e f i n d i n g s o f S.H.U. t c e s t i m a t e n u m b e r o f s i n g l e senior citizen households paying i n excess o f 40% o f t h e i r income on s h e l t e r . S t e p 3. S u b t r a c t t h e n u m b e r o f s i n g l e l i v i n g i nrent-geared-to-income units, S t e p s 1 a n d 2.  senior citizens currently from f i g u r e s derived i n  Step 4. .. S u b t r a c t t h e n u m b e r o f s i n g l e s e n i o r c i t i z e n o w n e r s e x p e c t e d t o s e l l t h e i r homes a n d b e c o m e r e n t e r s , a n d who thus would not require assisted housing i n t h enext 5 y e a r s , from f i g u r e s d e r i v e d i n S t e p 3. S t e p 5. U s e t h e f i g u r e s d e r i v e d i n S t e p 4 (one e m p l o y i n g t h e budget approach, t h e other t h ei n c o m e / e x p e n d i t u r e approach) t o arrive a t t h e number of single senior citizen households r e g u i r i n g a s s i s t a n c e f o r 1979-81. Step  6.  Derive an annual  average  target.  SINGLE SENIOR CITIZEN HOUSING TARGETS REGION OF WATERLOO 1979 -1981 Income / Budget A* sumptions (59.7*. have income* too low to rent without assistance in 1981) 2.420  Income / Expenditure Ratio Assumptions (62.8*. spend more than 402 of income on accommodation In 1961)  Ownership Household becoming Rental Households 221  Assisted Single Senior Housing Units 1978 1B36  2,549  Table 9 : Housing Targets f o r Single Senior C i t i z e n Households—Waterloo. ~|  Allocate regional targets to municipalities on a p e r c a p i t a basis. A very similar methodology utilizing an average of findings according to the budget approach and t h e i n c o m e / e x p e n d i t u r e a p p r o a c h , h a s been used f o r estimating the  77  need  for assisted  housing  f o r mother-led  families  (p..46).  i  78  CHART  WINNIPEG  Purpose  Format  length tables,  Geographic Cost  Scope  -  t e x t , 92 p a g e s a p p e n d i x , 30 p a g e s g r a p h s , maps - 4-3  City  of  housing  Winnipeg  Area  Demographic Analysis  Issues  Discussed  - p o p u l a t i o n growth rates -age structure trends -city vs. suburban growth -household size trends -population projections  Quantity Housing  -starts Stock  by  1961-76  -stock  by  type type  -vacancy rates f o r apartments 3.  4.  Quality Housing  -by Stock  Data Census  Sources  1956-76  location  -comparison with other Canadian cities  Methodology 5-year  rates  Census Census Census cohort survival, h i g h and low growth s c e n a r i o s headship rate  CMHC H o u s i n g  Stats.  Census CMHC H o u s i n g CMHC H o u s i n g  Stats. Stats.  study previously published S.H.U.  Suitability Housing Stock  5. A f f o r d a b i l i t y  -average household income v s . housing cost  1966-76  - b y income and tenure -by household s i z e and income -particular groups (1 a n d 2 p e r s o n households, single parent families, single seniors) 6.  situation.  n o n t e c h n i c a l language - yes v i s u a l emphasis of important p o i n t s - yes (underline summary sentence each paragraph)  -household projections 2.  1979s  $50,000  Topic 1.  H o u s i n g i n W i n n i p e g , C i t y of W i n n i p e g , p r e p a r e d by P. B a r n a r d and A s s o c i a t e s .  P r o v i d e i n - d e p t h u n d e r s t a n d i n g of c u r r e n t Forecast future housing requirements. I d e n t i f y h o u s i n g i s s u e s and problems. Develop program recommendations.  1. 2. 3. 4. (1)  -  Special  Needs  CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s . Financial Post "Survey of Markets" S.H.U. Social Planning Council of Winnipeg report "Guides for Family Budgetting", Toronto  income/expenditure approach  budget  approach  79  CHART 5 :  WINNIPEG  Topic  (cont'd)  Area  7.  Aspects of L o c a l Environment  8.  Housing Requirements  9. 10.  Issues  Discussed  Data  Sources  - t o t a l no. -by u n i t type  Methodology  traditional method occupancy patterns (2)  Targets Cost of Acting Analysis  -of recommendations  departmental budge t s  those  which  additional  v s . those do n o t 11.  Other  -housing market: house p r i c e s  absorption new u n i t s  Multiple  Listings  Service CMHC " C o m p l e t e d and U n o c c u p i e d Inventory  entail costs which .  80  NOTES TO  CHART 5:  WINNIPEG  1. The f o r m a t o f t h i s s t u d y — e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r m s o f t h e w r i t i n g s t y l e and l a y o u t o f t a b l e s , graphs and maps—makes i t e s p e c i a l l y easy t o u n d e r s t a n d . The t i t l e s o f t h e r e p o r t ' s g r a p h i c s e x p l a i n why t h e i n f o r m a t i o n Presented i s i m p o r t a n t as opposed t o s i m p l y d e s c r i b i n g what t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s . F o r e x a m p l e , a t a b l e which compares Winnipeg and Manitoba growth r a t e s from 1956-1976, i s e n t i t l e d "Both Winnipeg's and M a n i t o b a ' s Growth Rates Have Slowed". . S i m i l a r l y , a graph which d e p i c t s t h e percentage o f t o t a l d w e l l i n g s t a r t s by t y p e ( s i n g l e , s e m i , row a n d apartment) from 1961-1976, i s entitled "Singles Have D e c l i n e d i n T h e i r Share o f Housing Starts". Every few p a r a g r a p h s include a summary sentence which i s underlined, allowing the reader t o skim pages g u i c k l y w i t h o u t m i s s i n g i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s , or t o read the section more carefully f o r detailed information. For example: S i g n i f i c a n t s h i f t s have a l s o o c c u r r e d i n t h e age structure,of the population. T h i s has been due t o t h e l a r g e number o f b a b i e s b o r n after the second world war. As E x h i b i t 1.2 shows, the percentage of the p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 15 y e a r s h a s d e c r e a s e d b y 6% between 1966-1976. ... (p. 2) 2. by by  Occupancy p a t t e r n s are a p p l i e d t o t o t a l housing aqe qroup and household type t o e s t i m a t e housinq u n i t type as f o l l o w s :  Step 1. non-family  requirements requirements  D i v i d e t h e t o t a l number o f h o u s e h o l d s i n t o components by aqe o f h o u s e h o l d head..  family  and  S t e p 2. U s i n q s p e c i a l S t a t i s t i c s Canada cross-tabulations f o r 1971 and 1 9 7 6 a n d b a s e d on t h e t r e n d s i n f a m i l y a n d n o n - f a m i l y headship r a t e s observed between these two p e r i o d s , calculate f u t u r e h e a d s h i p r a t e s f o r each household type t o 1999. Step 3. Adjust these rates according t o assumptions future household formation t o derive a "modified trend". .  concerning historical  Step 4. Apply estimated headship rates p r o j e c t i o n s t o e s t i m a t e t h e number of family h o u s e h o l d s by age group t o 1999.  population non-family  to and  Step 5. Inflate t h e f i g u r e s d e r i v e d i n Step 4 by vacancy and r e p l a c e m e n t r a t e s e m p l o y e d f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t o t a l number o f 1976 housing requirements ( t r a d i t i o n a l method). Step 6. . A p p l y 1976 o c c u p a n c y patterns available from t h e C e n s u s , t o t o t a l h o u s i n q r e q u i r e m e n t s by a g e g r o u p a n d h o u s e h o l d t y p e t o d e r i v e u n i t t y p e h o u s i n g r e q u i r m e n t s t o 1999..  81  The a u t h o r s o f t h i s s t u d y have a l s o employed t h e a o o v e p r o c e d u r e e l i m i n a t i n g Step 3 t o d e r i v e p r o j e c t i o n s according t o h i s t o r i c a l trends ( i . e . , assume h e a d s h i p r a t e s w i l l f o l l o w p a s t t r e n d s ) , a s w e l l a s under two p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s — h i g h p o p u l a t i o n growth and l o w p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . Thus, four d i f f e r e n t scenarios are presented c o n c e r n i n g f u t u r e housing reguirements by u n i t type-a) H i s t o r i c a l h e a d s h i p rate trend/low population growth, b) Historical headship rate trend/high population growth, c) Modified headship rate trend/low population growth, a n d d) Modified headship rate trend/high population growth—which can then be compared. . F o r example:  AVERAGE ANNUAL ADDITIONS % DISTRIBUTION—MODIFIED TREND/HIGH  s ingle semi row apt. T o t a l No Table  10:  H-O  7,000 Occupancy  JO  6.500  J*-  4,600  Patterns—Winnipeg.  7  4,000  TO S T O C K POPULATION  .  i - r  2.400  GROWTH  ~s  700  82  CHART 6 :  Purpose  Format  VANCOUVER -  length  Geographic  -  Scope  t e x t , 313 p a g e s a p p e n d i x , 39 p a g e s g r a p h s , maps City  of  n o n t e c h n i c a l language - yes _ ^ v i s u a l emphasis important p o i n t s y e s (many s u b h e a d i n g s , cartoons)  Vancouver  $70,000 Topic  1.  Area  Demographic Analysis  Discussed  Data  -population distribution -population age-sex composition -family structure -household distribution, size, types -headship patterns -population projections  Census  1976  Census  1971.76  Census Census  1971.76  Issues  Sources  Census development trends(1) c ohort-survival ("demographic trends") development trends headship rate method  -household projections  Quantity Housing  Stock  - u n i t s by structural type and t e n u r e -ground orientation of units - i l l e g a l suites  -rooming  houses  - d i s t r i b u t i o n by type -density - c o m p l e t i o n s by type -demolitions, conversions  -non-profit,cooperative and public housing by t y p e a n d location  Methodology  1976  1979-86  2.  Vancouver,  " t o p r o v i d e a framework f o r t a c k l i n g the most b a s i c and f u n d a m e n t a l i s s u e s C o u n c i l has to d e a l w i t h i n h o u s i n g . It is hoped t h a t the r e p o r t s , t h e d e b a t e s u r r o u n d i n g them a n d t h e constituencies f o r m e d a r o u n d the i s s u e s w i l l shape the future h o u s i n g p o l i c i e s o f t h e C i t y a n d p r o v i d e one c o m p o n e n t o f a new C i t y P l a n . "  tables,  Cost  U n d e r s t a n d i n g V a n c o u v e r ' s H o u s i n g , C i t y of 1979; p r e p a r e d b y A . M c A f e e a n d P . M o n d o r  Census  1971.76  Census  1971,76  municipal records "educated guess" Census "collective households" C e n s u s 76 Census 71,76 CMHC H o u s i n g - S t a t s . 51-78 CMHC H o u s i n g Stats. municipal records l o c a l CMHC records  distinguish unit t y p e as " g r o u n d o r i e n t e d " or " a d u l t "  83  CHART 6 :  VANCOUVER Topic  2.  Area  QuantityHousing Stock ( c o n f d)  (cont'd) Issues  Discussed  -vacancy rates for a p t s . by s i z e -completed but unoccupied units by t y p e  Sources  Methodology  CMHC H o u s i n g Stats. CMHC H o u s i n g Stats.  1976-78  Census  <'•i s s u m e r e m o v a l s a f t e r 1971 composed of u n i t s before 1946  3.  Q u a l i t y Housing Stock  -age by  4.  Suitability Housing Stock  -crowding -ground orientation(2) -unit size  Census'  -unit design (handicapped)  previously published study  -household i n c ome  C e n s u s 1971 b y i n c ome market category research co. sample survey  -rents, dwelling values -rents, 1976 -house prices  Census  5.  Affordability  distribution census tract  Data  1971  matching technique(3) minimum o c c u p a n c y standard  only  1972-1978  -housing -no. by  6.  Special  Needs  1971  Multiple Listing Service  choice  of households tenure & type  -low income households  -families with children  S.H.U.  Economic C o u n c i l of Canada Statistics Canada social assistance records C e n s u s 1976 special tabulation 76 C e n s u s (migration) social assistance records B.C. Housing Management waiting lists  r e q u i r e d income example households income/expenditure approach budget approach  84  CHART  6:  VANCOUVER  Topic 6.  Area  S p e c i a l Needs (cont'd)  .  (cont'd) Issues  Discussed  8.  Housing Requirements  71  & 76  -single  Aspects of Local Environment  Methodology  Sources  Census,  -elderly  -handicapped  7.  Data  persons  SAFER (Shelter Aid for Elderly Renters) records social assistance records B.C. Housing Management Commission records Social Planning and Review C o u n c i l of B.C. B.C. Dept. of H o u s i n g B.C. Housing Management Commission records Census, 1976 social assistance records previously published studies  -location of health care & related social services -evolution city's residential areas -existing local area housing policies  Planning Dept.  -total  C e n s u s , CMHC Housing Stats provisions of Zoning and Development By-law  number  -elderly 1986 by district -  review municipal by-laws  population projections  1.  traditional  2.  method development trend  development potential (current residential land developed to maximum permissible density) assume c u r r e n t ratio elderly require assisted h o u s i n g by district; subtract seniors housing starts  3.  85  CHART  6:  Topic 8.  9.  10.  VANCOUVER Area  Housing Requirements (cont'd)  Targets  C o s t of Acting Analysis  (cont'd) Discussed  Data  -program  options  review current government programs & possible alternatives  by 4 " n e e d groups" (4) according to housing adequacy, assets & expectations  -Special Groups  Needs  Special data  K e e p up & c a t c h up  Issues  -1980  targets  -post 1980 targe ts 11.  Other  -housing families at high densities  Sources  Needs  available sr. govt, programs C i t y budget maximum u n i t price guidel i n e s (CMHC) recent c omple te d project costs  Methodology  comparative cost scenarios  (6)  descriptive previously published report  (5)  86  NOTES TO CHSET 6: VANCOUVER  1. P o p u l a t i o n and household projections have been estimated according t o two methods--a) "demographic t r e n d s " which i s equivalent to cohort-survival and headship rate methods p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d , a n d b) " d e v e l o p m e n t t r e n d s " . T h i s method estimated t h e 1986 p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h would result from t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f r e c e n t r e s i d e n t i a l development t r e n d s . S t e p 1. A s s u m e a) t h a t t h e t o t a l s t o c k c f o c c u p i e d h o u s i n g will i n c r e a s e b e t w e e n 1976-1986 a t a compounding of the rate of increase observed b e t w e e n 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 7 6 , a n d b) t h a t n e t a d d i t i o n s to t h e s t o c k will h a v e , t h e same composition i n terms of structural type as t h e n e t a d d i t i o n s made i n t h e 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 7 6 period. . Step type  2. P r o j e c t t h e e x p e c t e d c h a n g e t o t h e s t o c k t o 1986, u t i l i z i n g t h eassumptions above.  by  dwelling  Step 3.. A s s u m e future housing w i l l a t t r a c t households i n the same m a n n e r a s i n 1976 t o d e t e r m i n e f u t u r e h o u s i n g o c c u p a t i o n .  HOUSEHOLD TYPE  ADULT  DWELLING TYPE GROUND-ORIENTED  TOTAL  f a m i l i e s with c h i l d r e n couples without c h i l d r e n non-family households  10,362  39.571  49.93-0  Total  97.235  77,925  175.160  75.725  84,500  160,225  -6,575 -7-78%  +14,935  1976  occupied  dwellings  1 9 7 6 - 8 6 change Table l i s Future Housing  22,818 64,055  +21,510  +28.41%  45.625 79.600  22,806 15.548  +9.32%  Occupation—Vancouver.  S t e p 4.. A p p l y 1976 a g e c o m p o s i t i o n of household household type, t o determine estimated households f o r Step 5.. population  Apply 1976 a g e - s p e c i f i c by a g e g r o u p s f o r 1 9 8 6 .  headship  The d e v e l o p m e n t t r e n d m e t h o d t a k e s l i t t l e v a r i a b l e s and focusses  rates  account  heads 1986..  by  t o determine  of  demographic  ...almost exclusively on recent residential development trends i n shaping t h e f u t u r e s i z e and composition o f t h ehousing stock. Current headship rates and d w e l l i n g occupancy ratios were used t o e s t i m a t e t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i z e and age c o m p o s i t i o n that  87  c o u l d be a c c o m o d a t e d (P. .7-33)  i n this  stock  of dwellings.  This i s i n contrast t o t h e demographic t r e n d s s c e n a r i o which c o n c e n t r a t e s on d e m o g r a p h i c variables while largely ignoring development trends a n d t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s . The t w o s c e n a r i o s developed a r e then compared t o suggest probable upper and lower l i m i t s t o the c i t y ' s population andhousehold growth. "Over t h e long term, Vancouver's housing stock a s w e l l a s i t s p o p u l a t i o n w i l l l a r g e l y be a r e s u l t of interaction between what people want, and can a f f o r d , a n d what b u i l d e r s and developers can s u p p l y " ( p . 7-38) . 2.. T h e a u t h o r s c a t e g o r i z e single detached dwellings, double h o u s e s , r o w h o u s e s , d u p l e x e s a n d m o b i l e hemes a s g r o u n d o r i e n t e d and suitable f o r occupancy by f a m i l i e s w i t h young c h i l d r e n . Apartments and other attached u n i t s (e.g., rooming houses) a r e designated "adult". . 3.. T h e a u t h o r s u s e a m a t c h i n g t e c h n i q u e t o c o m p a r e t h e number o f a f f o r d a b l e g r o u n d o r i e n t e d u n i t s t c t h e number of families r e q u i r i n g such housing anda r r i v e a t t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e :  F A M I L I E S WITH YOUNG C H I L D R E N HOUSING N E E D S : A F F O R D A B L E , 2 BEDROOM, GROUND-ORIENTED U N I T S . household  Table  12:  income  Matching  under $8,000 $ 8 , 000 - 4 1 2 , 0 0 0 $12,000 - $18,000 over $18,000  TECHNICAL SHORTFALL UNITS REQUIRED  shortfall  shortfall shortfall  1,000  8,000 7,000  units  units units  ample accomodation available  Technique—Vancouver.  4. The s t u d y i d e n t i f i e s f o u r n e e d g r o u p s a c c o r d i n g t o h o u s i n g adequacy, a s s e t s and e x p e c t a t i o n s o f househclds. They a r e : Group I : N o n - L i g u i d i t y Group - h o u s e h o l d s who u s u a l l y own t h e i r o w n h o m e s , b u t h a v e low d i s p o s a b l e i n c o m e s . G r o u p I I : I n e f f e c t i v e Demand G r o u p -househclds l i v e i n housing of adequate q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y , b u t spend a n e x c e s s i v e amount o f t h e i r income on shelter. Group I I I : Underemployed Group similar t o Group I I , h o w e v e r may b e a b l e t o m e e t t h e i r needs g i v e n r e a s o n a b l e employment p r o s p e c t s .  88  Group I V : Underhoused Group - households l i b i n g i n i n a p p r o p r i a t e housing (e.g., f a m i l i e s above grade, persons r e q u i r i n g s p e c i a l design h o u s i n g ) o r i n a d e q u a t e h o s u i n q due t o c r o w d i n g o r p o o r guality. The number of households i n each c a t e g o r y i s e s t i m a t e d based upon findings preented in the report. Government program requirements, their advantages and limitations as well as r e l a t i v e c o s t s are compared t o t h e needs of each group.  5. Three o p t i o n s are presented as c r i t e r i a f o r t a r g e t s e t t i n g - a) r e s p o n d t o e x i s t i n g C i t y h o u s i n g p o l i c i e s , b) r e t a i n present ratios o f s p e c i a l n e e d s h o u s i n g t o h o u s e h o l d s b y t y p e ("Keep Up T a r g e t " ) , c) s u b s t a n t i a l l y r e d u c e c u r r e n t unmet h o u s i n g n e e d s o f t h o s e e x p e r i e n c i n g h o u s i n g q u a l i t y , q u a n t i t y AND affordability problems over a s e v e r a l y e a r t i m e s p a n (" K e e p Up,;*!}^ C a t c h ^Up Target ") . The authors also took " i n t o account land availability, staffing requirements, and e n v i s a q e d CMHC u n i t a l l o c a t i o n s t c a r r i v e a t t a r g e t s f o r 1980. . 6. Comparative cost scenarios are presented which compare d i f f e r e n c e s i n s e n i o r qovernment f u n d i n q l e v e l s , a v a i l a b i l i t y of s i t e s , s t a f f i n q r e q u i r e m e n t s , and o p e r a t i n q s u b s i d i e s . A "best" and a "worst" scenario i s presented. Due t o v a r i e d s e n i o r qovernment prcqrams, the e f f e c t of a change of the targets' h o u s i n g mix i s a l s o c o n s i d e r e d .  89  CHART 7:  QUEBEC - H a b i t e r Au Quebec, Gouvernement du Quebec. 1976; p r e p a r e d by Groupe de T r a v a i l s u r 1 ' H a b i t a t i o n , G.R. L e g a u l t , D i r e c t o r A p p e n d i x no. 4: "La demande e f f e c t i v e e t l e s b e s o i n s logement au Quebec de 1971 a 1981", Georges Mathews  To a n a l v z e the c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s i t . n a t i n n i n a n r e g i o n s of Quebec. To propose a h o u s i n g p o l i c y i n c l u d i n g c o n c r e t e o b j e c t i v e s and programs f o r i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .  1.  Purpose  2. Format  l e n g t h - 132  vss.  with appendix; 17 background r e p o r t s have a l s o been p u b l i s h e d graphs , maps - 8  n o n t e c h n i c a l l a n g uage - yes v i s u a l emphasis of i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s - yes ( m a r g i n n o t e s )  20 pg .  tables, Geographic Cost  2.  3-  Scope  P r o v i n c e of Quebec. M o n t r e a l . Ci+.v nf Onphpr. , C h i c o u t i m i - J onquiere  Hull,  unknown Topic  1.  en  Area  Demographic Analysis  Q u a n t i t y Hous ng Stock  Quality Stock  Housing  Issues Discussed -population projections  1981  -household projections  1981  - u n i t s under construction, completed - s t o c k by type -demolitions -age -facilities -abandoned units  Data  Sources  Bureau de Statistiques du Quebec  Census municipal permits  Suitability Housing Stock  - u n i t s of more than one p e r s on per room  Census  5-  Affordability  -projection  Simlon(l) (for Montreal)  -family  to  incomes  -household incomes v s . r e n t s , 1970  -  survival  CMHC H o u s i n g Stats.  4.  1981  cohort  headship rate, takes i n t o a c c o u n t househ o l d type  Census Census Dept. P e r m i t s and I n s p e c t i o n s , Montreal previously published studies  - i n need of renovation  Methodology  survey of t e n Montreal districts  i n c ome/ expenditure approach (25% of n e t income)  Statistics Canada c a t . no. 13-208,  1975  Census, 1971 c a t . no. 9 3 -  711  adjusted according to difference i n average income i n H u l l , Quebec City, Montreal, ChicoutimiJonquiere f o r these metrop o l i t a n areas  90  CHART 7:  QUEBEC  Topic  (cont'd)  Area  Issues Discussed  5.  Affordability (cont'd)  -non-family  6.  S p e c i a l Needs  -low income households -students  incomes  Data  Sources  a p p l y t o Quebec p o p u l a t i o n by age groups  Census, 1971 f o r Canada  review govt,  • Methodology  available housing  -elderly -physically handicapped 7.  A s p e c t s of Local Environment  8.  Housing Requirements  "frustrated demand" (2)  -no. h o u s e h o l d s n o t a b l e t o be housed by private sector,  1981  -no. h o u s e h o l d s with a f f o r d a b i l i t y problem, 1981 -no. of u n i t s by size  9.  10.  11.  Targets  C o s t of A c t i n g Analysis  Other  -targets for Year I  p r o j e c t household size to 1981 assuming 1971 d i s t r i b u t i o n . Add the number of u n i t s by s i z e t o overcome c u r r e n t overcrowding assuming one p e r s o n per room; and e x p e c t e d demolitions guesstimate r e s u l t s of separate studies regarding renovation, land a c q u i s i t i o n , mortgage financing, aid to m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , new c o n s t r u c t i o n , consumer p r o t e c t i o n , a i d tc h o u s i n g groups  -targets f o r Year I  past  -economic a s p e c t s of c o o p e r a t i v e s  separate appendices the s t u d y  -renovation .programs  experience  to  provincial, federal, municipal shares  91  CHART 7:  QUEBEC ( c o n t •d)  Topic 11.  Other  Area (cont'd)  Issues Discussed -housing abandonment - e v o l u t i o n of construction costs - h o u s i n g codes -land a v a i l a b i l i t y -impact CMHC programs -review housing programs i n Ontario  Data  Sources  Methodology  92  NOTES TO  CHART 7:  QUEBEC  1« SIMLOM was a s u r v e y c o n d u c t e d i n 1972 b y l ' U i s t i t u t N a t i o n a l de l a H e c h e r c h e S c i e n t i f i g u e o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Quebec. The survey provided information on the characteristics of 1500 households, characteristics of their current and previous dwelling u n i t s , t h e i r future aspirations with regard to housing, and e v o l u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s incomes. T h e s a m p l e was drawn to be representative of the socio-economic, ethnic, and " e c o l o g i c a l " (primarily density of housing units) situation of Metropolitan Montreal by c e n s u s t r a c t . F i n d i n g s of the survey i n c l u d e t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d s p a y i n g in excess of 25% of their i n c o m e on s h e l t e r . . ( F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h i s s u r v e y , see P r p j e t SIMLOM: L'.e v o l u t i o n d u m a r c h e d u l o q e m e n t de l a r e g i o n d e c D M o n t r e a l de 1 9 7 0 , 3 1974 G. M a t h e w s , Montreal: I . N . E . S . / U n i v e r s i t e d u Quebec,"" 1 9 7 4 . ) 1  2. The s t u d y e s t i m a t e s t h o s e households whose shelter needs will n o t b e met b y t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r o r e x p e c t e d p u b l i c s e c t o r u n i t s , t e r m e d f r u s t r a t e d demand , i n 1 9 8 1 . , T h i s i s a c c o m p l i s h e d f o r t h e p r o v i n c e as a w h o l e as f o l l o w s : Step 1. Establish the number of rental units available according to monthly rent. Assume that rent increases w i l l f o l l o w i n c r e a s e s i n t h e c o s t of l i v i n g ( e s t i m a t e d a t 100% for 1971-81) . S t e p 2. D e t e r m i n e f r o m t h e 1971 C e n s u s t h e n u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s by i n c o m e g r o u p a n d a c c o r d i n g t o m o n t h l y r e n t . . ( N o t e : t h i s d a t a is available for Canada and the Provinces only.) Apply p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n t o h o u s e h o l d p r o j e c t i o n s f o r 1981. . S t e p 3. Compare the figures derived in Steps 1 e s t a b l i s h the expected s h o r t f a l l of u n i t s per r e n t a l Step 4. required  Assume t h a t t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r o v e r $ 3 0 0 . 0 0 p e r month r e n t .  will  and 2 group..  to  provide a l l units  S t e p 5. a) A l l o c a t e p r o p o s e d p u b l i c housing units to lowest income h o u s e h o l d s (under $10,000 a n n u a l i n c o m e ) . Asume t h a t i t w i l l be i m p o s s i b l e f o r t h e r e m a i n d e r o f h o u s e h o l d s e a r v i n g b e l o w $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 t o a f f o r d new h o u s i n g . b) S i m i l a r l y , n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s e a r n i n g w i l l b e u n a b l e t o a f f o r d new h o u s i n g . c) However, families more e x p e n s i v e h o u s i n g shelter.  of and  $10,000  incomes $10,000 - $16,000 pay o v e r 25% of their  -  $16,000  will occupy incomes on  Step 6.. The h o u s e h o l d s w i t h " f r u s t r a t e d demand" a r e 5a + 5b. " P o o r l y h o u s e d " h o u s e h o l d s a r e 5 a + 5b + 5 c , p l u s those poorly h o u s e d i n 1971 ( i . e . , p a y i n g i n e x c e s s o f 2 5 % o f t h e i r i n c o m e on  93  shelter). The study follows a s i m i l a r methodology f o r M o n t r e a l , Quebec C i t y , H u l l , and C h i c o u t i m i - J o n g u i e r e . Step 2 of the procedure is c o m p l e t e d by c o m p a r i n g t h e p r o v i n c i a l a v e r a g e i n c o m e t o t h a t of each of the metropolitan areas and adjusting the census r e s u l t s which r e l a t e t o t h e p r o v i n c e as a whole, a c c o r d i n g l y .  94  CHART 8:  Purpose  Format  OTTAWA-CARLETON - H o u s i n g i n O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n , R e g i o n a l M u n i c i p a l i t y of O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n , 1 9 7 6 ; p r e p a r e d by P a t e r s on ' P l a n n i n g and R e s e a r c h , and Comay P l a n n i n g Consultants " t o c l a r i f y t h e h o u s i n g g o a l s o f the O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n R e g i o n , and t o recommend sound s h o r t and l o n g range p o l i c i e s and programs t o a t t a i n them"  l e n g t h - 296 pgs, 148 pg. a p p e n d i x . S i x a d d i t i o n a l volumes d e t a i l i n g background t o the s t u d y have been published, tables,graphs.maps - 3 2  G e o g r a p h i c Scope  Cost  R e g i o n a l M u n i c i p a l i t y O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n (4 m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) -does n o t i n c l u d e housing, market a r e a as H u l l , Quebec i s excluded  unknown Topic  1.  Area  Demographic Analysis  Issues Discussed - t o t a l population . by m u n i c i p a l i t y , d e n s i t y , mother tongue, age, marital status - f a m i l i e s by age, t y p e , s i z e , no. of c h i l d r e n - h o u s e h o l d s by s i z e , type,age - t o t a l population,  1971-74  -population projections -household projections 2.  Quantity Housing Stock  -occupied dwellings hy t y p e , t e n u r e , no. bedrooms -unit starts, c o m p l e t i o n s by municipality - d e m o l i t i o n s by type, 1969-74  3.  n o n t e c h n i c a l language - y e s v i s u a l emphasis i m p o r t a n t points - yes ( i t a l i c s , u n d e r l i n i n g , subheadings)  Quality Housing  Stock  -age -require  rehab.  -plumbing facilities -need major r e p a i r ,  1971  Data  Sources  Methodology  Census, 1971  Census Census Municipal Directories, Assessment Rolls survey a v a i l a b l e projections J. K i r k l a n d , CMHC  cohort  survival  headship rate  Census, 1971 Census Municipal Directories CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t s Statistics Canada, B u s i n e s s Finance Div. Census, 1971 study p r e v i o u s l y published Census, 1971 Census, 1961  windshield survey Housing Market M o d e l (1)  95  CHART 8 : OTTAWA-CARLETON Topic k.  5.  Area  Suitability Housing Stock  Affordability  (cont'd) Issues Discussed  Data  Sources  -crowding  Census, 1 9 6 1 ,  -sharing  h'holds  S t a t s . Canada, Consumer Income and E x p e n d i t u r e Div. Census, 1 9 6 1 ,  -lodging  families  Census 1 9 6 1 ,  -by  size  unit  -monthly r e n t s -rent index  -income, h ' h o l d s , f a m i l i e s by s i z e and tenure  -wages  1966, 1971  1966, 1971  Census, 1971 S t a t s . Canada, Prices Div. CMHC "Apt. Vacancy Survey" Census, 1971 CMHC H o u s i n g Stats. Multiple Listing Service newspaper c l a s s i f i e d ads Census, 1971 S p e c i a l Tabulations Tabulations, Census Revenue Canada, Taxation Stats. S t a t s . Canada Census  -housing choice -Housing M a r k e t Model (1)  7.  S p e c i a l Needs  1+ person/room  1971  -rents, vacant apts. . -value s . f . d . -housing p r i c e i n d i c e s by type -sale prices  6.  Methodology  -elderly -students -roomers -handicapped  minimum occupancy s tandard  i n c ome requirements computer model recommend s t u d y recommend s t u d y recommend s t u d y  study p r e v i o u s l y published  -farm workers -mother-led families -families  recommend s t u d y  traditional method  Aspects of L o c a l Environment  8.  Housing Requirements  - t o t a l number  9.  Targets  - s h o r t term ( 1 9 7 6 1978) by t e n u r e , t y p e , i n c ome group, program, municipality N. B. : differentiates public, private starts .  1976-78  h i s t o r i c trends Housing Market Model f i n d i n g s market c o n d i t i o n s land a v a i l a b i l i t y  guesstimate  96  CHART 8: OTTAWA-CARLETON Topic Area 9. T a r g e t s ( c o n t ' d )  (cont'd) Issues Discussed  Data S o u r c e s  -medium term (1978-81)  guesstimate ( w i l l review 1978) a p p l y medium term a s s i s t e d h'hold r a t i o s to r e q u i r e d n e t additions to house 1 m i l l i o n  - l o n g term (1981-2011)  10.  Cost of A c t i n g Analysis  -staffing -public housing subsidy - l a n d assembly - s h o r t and l o n g term  Methodology  costs incurred by O n t a r i o H o u s i n g Corp. f o r OttawaCarleton  municipal contribution =  7-5%  assume 1200 . units/year ave. s u b s i d y w i l l r i s e 3.5% i n  1975  11.  Other  -vacant land suitable for residential development  $'B  inventory, surveys  field  97  NOTES TO  CHART 8:  OTTAWA-CARLETON  1.. The authors of t h i s study have developed a housinq_maricet model which c r o s s - t a b u l a t e s p o p u l a t i o n , incomes, shelter costs and s h e l t e r q u a l i t y t o i n d i c a t e t h e number o f f a m i l i e s and nonf a m i l y i n d i v i d u a l s h o u s i n g i n a d e q u a t e and inadequate housinq, and those payinq within or beyond t h e i r incomes f o r s h e l t e r . The information for the model i s derived from special t a b u l a t i o n s o f t h e 1971 C e n s u s . Step 1. . D e f i n e terms to correspond "Shelter u n i t s " are equal to the number u n i t s p l u s t h e number o f l o d g i n g f a m i l i e s individuals. . Step 2.. Distribute families and i n c o m e c l a s s and c a t e g o r y o f t e n u r e .  to census definitions. of occupied dwelling and l o d g i n g n o n - f a m i l y  non-family  individuals  by  S t e p 3.. Distribute families and non-family individuals by shelter cost, income category and category of tenure. The s h e l t e r c o s t s of l o d g e r s i s i n f e r r e d from a sample o f c l a s s i f i e d advertisements. S t e p 4. Determine s h e l t e r cost to income relationship. The standard of measurement employed i s the rent-to-income s c a l e used f o r d e t e r m i n i n g r e n t i n public housing projects of the Ontario Housing C o r p o r a t i o n , which r a n g e s from 16.7% t o 25% o f g r o s s i n c o m e , d e p e n d i n g upon t h e l e v e l o f a n n u a l g r o s s i n c o m e . S t e p 5. Determine income categories. A low-income category c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h a t s e r v e d by p u b l i c h o u s i n g . The middle-income group i s not e l i g i b l e f o r r e n t - g e a r e d - t o -income u n i t s , y e t may s t i l l r e g u i r e some t y p e o f a s s i s t a n c e t o o b t a i n a d e q u a t e h o u s i n g w i t h i n t h e i r i n c o m e s . . The h i g h i n c o m e g r o u p i s " c l e a r l y a b l e t o find adequate shelter within their incomes without any assistance thouqh s o m e o f t h e m may v o l u n t a r i l y d e c i d e t o s p e n d m o r e t h a n n e c e s s a r y o r t o p u t up w i t h some i n a d e q u a c i e s s u c h as crowding" (p..97, T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t ) . Step 6.. Determine dwelling inadequacies according to three indicators--a) crowding (more t h a n one person per room), b) sharing (more than one family p e r d w e l l i n g ) , a n d c) i n p o o r condition (in a structure c l a s s i f i e d as needing major repair according to the c r i t e r i a u s e d b y t h e 1961 C e n s u s ) . As t h e r e e x i s t e d a h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n p o o r c o n d i t i o n a n d a) period of construction before 1920, b) h o u s e h o l d s w i t h more t h a n 6 p e r s o n s , c ) h o u s e h o l d s w i t h m o r e t h a n one p e r s o n p e r room, and d) m o n t h l y r e n t b e l o w $ 4 0 . 0 0 p e r m o n t h i n 1 9 6 1 ; 1971 v a l u e s w e r e substituted into regression eguations of these variables to o b t a i n e s t i m a t e s of poor c o n d i t i o n i n 1971. The p r e s e n c e o f a n y one of the three c o n d i t i o n s was sufficient to classify accomodation as inadequate, b u t i n many c a s e s t w o o r t h r e e o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s were f o u n d t o g e t h e r .  98  S t e p 7. C r o s s - t a b u l a t e t h e t h r e e income group and tenancy.  categories  of  inadequacy  by  Step 8. Combine cross-tabulations of population, income, s h e l t e r c o s t and s h e l t e r g u a l i t y i n t o a h o u s i n g market model t o p r o d u c e t h e t a b l e p r e s e n t e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g page. Step  9.  Summarize  housing  needs as f o l l o w s :  ADEQUATE SHELTER UNITS  INADEQUATE SHELTER UNITS  167,730  151.930  15.800  SHELTER COSTS WITHIN INCOME  114,340  104;330  9.510  SHELTER COSTS BEYOND INCOME  53.390  47.100  6.290  TOTAL  ADEQUATE  SHELTER UNITS TO INCOME RELATIONSHIP .TOTAL  INCOME  BEYOND INCOME  INADEQUATE  90. 6%  9.4%  68.2$  62.5%  5-7%  31.8%  28.1%  3.7%  100$  TOTAL WITHIN  TOTAL SHELTER UNITS  represents a " h o u s i n g need" Table 1 3 :  Summary H o u s i n g N e e d s — O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n .  i  99  HOUSING  MARKET MODEL HOUSING  MARKET MODEL, ONTARIO PORTION OF THE OTTAWA-HULL METROPOLITAN  I N D I V I D U A L S AND F A M I L I E S ,  AREA, 1 9 7 1  BY R E L A T I O N S H I P OF SHELTER-COST-TO-INCOME AND BY ADEQUACY  Q U A L I T Y  O F  S H E L T E R :  OF S H E L T E R  U N I T S  I N A D E Q U A T E ADEQUATE  COST WITHIN OR ALL BEYOND SHELTER 1NCOHE UNITS  TOTAL  CONDITION ALONE OR CONDITION AND OVERCROWDING  CONDITION AND SHARING OR CONDITION, SHARING AND OVERCROWDING  SHARING ALONE OR SHARING AND OVERCROWDING  OVERCROWDING ALONE  SHARING ALONE OR SHARING AND OVERCROWDING  OVERCROWDING ALONE  ALONE  6,110 3,600 2,530  5,740 4,010 1,710  660 100 360  590 270 320  1,970 1,630 340  2,520 1.(10 710  5,760 1,410 2,350  2,770 2,060 710  60 10 30  590 270 320  1.970 1,(30 340  15* 130 20  370 190 180  2,970 1,950 1,020  (00 270 3)0  1*480 780 700  2,740 1,870 870  790 280 510  420 90 1)0  2,020 1,190 9)0  3,380 970 2,410  4,690 1,1)0 3,560  1,040 190 850  2)0 60 170  740 190 550  2,680 690 1,990  2,790 1,440 1,350  430 (0 350  380 80 100  1.2(0 1,000 2(0  2,020 1,190 830  2,650 720 1.930  4,170 1.100 3,270  820 180 640  2)0 60 170  740 190 550  2,5; • 670 1.910  1,770 1,140 630  40 10 10  1.280 • 1.000 280  710 250 480  320 30 290  220 10 210  100 20 80  1,020 300 720  390 70 320  380 80 300 _  3,850 2,910 940  960 690 270  200 160 40  680 530 150  •2,010  2,270 1,990 280  2)0 220 10  210 1(0 20  (90 430 (0  1,140 950 190  1,890 1,490 400  3,480 2,740 740  760 610 150  200 160 40  680 510 150  1,840 1,440 400  970 890  20 20  210 190 20  (90 OO 60  SO 50  1,260 990 270  370 170 200  200 80 120  170 90 80  1,100 1,100 200  210 200 10  680 580 100  3,450 2,410 1,040  8,650 5,410 3,240  TOTAL NIthin Beyond  107,030 80,160 26,870  94,990 72,880 22.110  12,040 280 1,760  1,640 820 820  1,040 510 530  3,450 2,410 1,040  5,910 3,540 2.370  NON-FAMILY INDIVIDUALS  TOTAL Within Doyond  60,700 34,180 26,530  56,940 31,950 24,990  760 2,210 530  1,020 360 660  ALL FAMILIES AND NON-FAMILT INDIVIDUALS  TOTAL Within Boyond  45,210 12,570 32,640  17.7)0 10,000 27,710  7.480 2,570 4,910  1,470 270 1,200  610 140 470  TOTAL Within Beyond  21,440 5,540 15,900  15,300 3,300 12,000  6,140 2,240 900  860 190 670  610 140 470  TOTAL Within Boyond  23,770 7,0)0 16,740  22,4)0 6,700 15,7)0  340 330 1,010  610 80 5)0 1,170 1,160 210  10,060 5,500 4,560  3,150 2,480 670  iiiio  TOTAL Within Beyond  68,500 51,110 17,390  62,390 46,210 16,170  6,120 4,900 1,220  1,190 910 280  TOTAL Within Beyond  41,600 33,960 9,640  39,150 10,330 8,820  4,450 3,630 820  780 610 150  NON-FAMILT INDIVIDUALS  TOTAL Within Beyond  24,900 17,150 7,750  23,2)0 15,880 7,350  1,670 1,270 400  410 280 110  ALL FAMILIES AND NON-FAMILT INDIVIDUALS  TO' Wii t h l n Boyond  54,020 50,660 1,360  51,120 48,620 3,200  2,200 2,040 160  20 20  60 60  2,120 1,960 160  1,520 1,460 60  20 20  60 SO  1,440 1,180 60  TOTAL Within Beyond  41,990 40,660 1,330  40,540 39,250 1,290  1,450 1,410 40  20 20  (0 60  1,170 1,3)0 40  1,420 1,180 40  20 20  60 60  1,340 1,300 40  TOTAL Within  12,030 10,000 2,0)0  11,280 9,)70 1,910  750 610 120  750 6)0 120  100 80 20  'Beyond  OVZRCRDWDINC |  450 240 210  1,040 510 530  NOW-FAMILY INDIVIDUALS  SHARING ALONE OR SHARING AND OVERCROWDING  1,580 790 790  2,660 1,180 1,480  410 350 60  CONDITION AMD SOARING OR CONDITION, SHARING AND OVERCROWD180  9,270 5.2204,050  15,800 9,510] 6,290l  ALL FAMILIES AND NON-FAMILT INDIVIDUALS  TOTAL  CONDITION ALONE OR CONDITION AND OVERCROWDING  . 450 240 210  151,910 104,830 47,100  410 350 60  CONDITION AMD SHARING OR CONDITION, SHARINC AND OVERCROWDING  2,000 880 1.120  167,7)0 114,340 53,390  NON-FAMILY INDIVIDUALS  TOTAL  CONDITION ALONE OR CONDITION AND OVERCROWDING  1,480 700 700  TOTAL Within Beyond  ALL FAMILIES AND HON-FAMILY INDIVIDUALS  LODGER OCCUPIED UNITS  I1WNF.R AND TENANT OCCUPIED UNITS  ALL INADEQUATE UNITS  1,170 1,160 210  T a b l e 14: H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l — O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n .  490  100 80 20  1.37* 1,690 690  •  _ •  -  700 280 420 70 50 20 (30 230 400  1,090 900 190 (80 580 100 )0 30  (50 550 100  (50 550 100  100  CHART 9: ALBERTA - Low Income H o u s i n g i n A l b e r t a , P o l i c y and Program Development B r a n c h ( A l b e r t a ) , C i t i e s o f Edmonton and C a l g a r y , A l b e r t a H o u s i n g and P u b l i c Works, C.M.H.C, 1978; p r e p a r e d by C l a y t o n R e s e a r c h A s s o c i a t e s . Purpose  1. 2. 34. 5'  Format  l e n g t h - 112 pgs. " a p p e n d i x , 84 p g s . t a b l e s , g r a p h s , maps - 44  Geographic Cost  E s t i m a t e need f o r low income r e n t a l h o u s i n g . A n a l y s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f h o u s e h o l d s w i t h a f f o r d a b i l i t y problem. Estimate their d i s t r i b u t i o n . E s t i m a t e demand f o r Community H o u s i n g Program (C.H.P.) t o 1982. Comment on i m p l i c a t i o n s o f f e d e r a l low income h o u s i n g p r o p o s a l s .  Scope  Cities  $20,000 p l u s s t a f f  Topic  Area  1. Demographic Analysis  n o n t e c h n i c a l language - y e s v i s u a l emphasis i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s yes (subheadings)  o f C a l g a r y and Edmonton; P r o v i n c e o f A l b e r t a time f o r 4 months f o r s t a f f Issues Discussed -no. o f t a r g e t households (1)  Data  of 5 a g e n c i e s  Sources  S.H.U. S t a t s . Canada "Survey of H o u s e h o l d Income F a c i l i t i e s and Equipment" (H.I.F.E. ), 1976 headship rate (assume c o n s t a n t r a t i o renters)  -renters to 1982 2. Q u a n t i t y Housing Stock  3. Q u a l i t y Housing  -currently a v a i l a b l e C.H.P. units - a s s i s t e d low income r e n t a l h o u s i n g by neighbourhood and no. bedrooms - p r i v a t e market r e n t a l housing vacancy r a t e s , completions, under c o n s t r u c t i o n -rents  Methodology  C.H.P. r e c o r d s CMHC, A l b e r t a , municipal records CMHC H o u s i n g Stats.  study p r e v i o u s l y published  Stock  4. S u i t a b i l i t y Housing Stock  5. A f f o r d a b i l i t y  - l o c a t i o n C.H.P. units vs. target households -C.H.P. u n i t s i z e vs. t a r g e t h'hold size  i n t e r v i e w , C.H.P. records, charact e r i s t i c s target households  -projection target households  S.H.U., H.I.F.E.  -characteristics of t a r g e t h o u s e h o l d s (3)  S.H.U. , H.I.F.E.  shelter cost/ income model (2) assume r e m a i n constant to 1982  101  CHART 9: ALBERTA Topic 5-  (cont'd)  Area  Affordability (cont'd)  Issues  Discussed  -distribution t a r g e t h ' h o l d s by neighbourhood ( 4 ;  Data  Sources  Methodology  S t a t s . Canada c a t . no.  93-773  " S t a t i s t i c s on Low Income"  1970  Census, 1971 S.H.U. municipal records 6. S p e c i a l Needs 7.  Aspects of L o c a l Environment  8. H o u s i n g Requirements  -total  9-  -C.H.P. P r o d u c t i o n T a r g e t s #1 (5) 1979-82  Targets  number  -C.H.P. P r o d u c t i o n T a r g e t s #2 (6) 1979-82 10.  11.  Cost of A c t i n g Analysis  Other  -example u n i t type costs including construction, land, design, legal fees, f i n a n c i n g , overhead - r e s i d e n t i a l land costs f o r various zoning categories, suburban v s . inner c i t y ; e f f e c t on u n i t p r i c e  -number, characteristics t a r g e t h'holds current rental 1. ' h ' h o l d s experience eligible for C a l g a r y , Edmonton C.H.P.' u n i t s Housing A u t h o r i 2. s u b t r a c t no. Authorities t a r g e t h'holds l i k e l y t o be accomodated o t h e r programs 3. estimated "demand" C.H.P. units "our p r o f e s s i o n a l judgement"  C.H.P. r e c o r d s  interview realtors municipal records C.H.P. r e c o r d s  102  NOTES TO CHART 9: A L B E R T A  1. Target_households a r e defined as "renter households under t h e a g e o f 65 i n t h e l o w e r t h i r d i n c o m e r a n g e p a y i n g 3 0 % o r m o r e of t h e i r i n c o m e f o r s h e l t e r ( c a s h r e n t s ) " (p. . 1 3 ) . . The s t u d y describes technical a s p e c t s o f t h e S.H.U. a n d H . I . F . E . s u r v e y s i n c l u d i n g sample s i z e , t e r m i n o l o g y and l i m i t a t i o n s . 2. . T h e s h e l t e r . c o s t / i n c p m e m o d e l e m p l o y e d t c p r o j e c t of t a r g e t h o u s e h o l d s t o 1982 i s a s f e l l o w s :  t h e number  Step 1.. C h a r t cross-tabulation o f t h e number of renter households by i n c o m e group and s h e l t e r / c o s t income r a t i o f o r 1974 ( d a t a a v a i l a b l e f r o m S.H.U. a n d H . I . F . E . s u r v e y s ) .  INCOME GROUPS  below $2000  $2000-$2999  $25,000+  T0TAL ' HOUSEHOLDS  SHELTER COST/ INCOME RATIO below  .15  . 1 5 - -199 i45+ Total Households Table  15:  S h e l t e r Cost/Income R a t i o s — A l b e r t a .  S t e p 2.. Assume i n i t i a l l y t h a t a n y i n c r e a s e i n r e n t e r h o u s e h o l d s i s d i s t r i b u t e d i d e n t i c a l l y with t h ee x i s t i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n of a l l r e n t e r h o u s e h o l d s - - e . g . , i f 10% o f a l l r e n t e r households have incomes below $2000 and s h e l t e r c o s t / i n c c m e r a t i o s o f .45+, i t i s assumed t h a t 10% o f t h e i n c r e a s e i n r e n t a l households also f a l l s i n t o t h i s g r o u p i n g (p. B-14). Step 3. Apply inflation f a c t o r s t o i n d i v i d u a l income groups w i t h t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d s within each income group a r ee v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d . I n c r e a s e s i n income 19741978 a r e b a s e d upon i n c r e a s e s i n average weekly earnings. A s s u m e i n c o m e s w i l l g r o w c n a v e r a g e b y 7% f o l l o w i n g 1 9 7 8 . S t e p 4.. A p p l y i n f l a t i o n f a c t o r s t o r e n t s : 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 7 8 b y t h e r e n t component o f t h e consumer p r i c e i n d e x . F o l l o w i n g 1978 assume s h e l t e r cost/income r a t i o s w i l l n o t change. S t e p 5.. D e r i v e t h e n u m b e r of target households from these f i g u r e s under 5 need c r i t e r i a : 1. Renter h o u s e h o l d s under a g e o f 65 i n l o w e r t h i r d  103  income range having a shelter cost/income ratio of .254-. . 2. Renter households under age 65 i n lower t h i r d income range having s h e l t e r cost/income r a t i o of . 3 0 + . 3. R e n t e r h o u s e h o l d s under age 65 i n lower third income range having s h e l t e r cost/income r a t i o of . 4 0 + . 4. Renter households under age 6 5 i n l o w e r h a l f income range h a v i n g s h e l t e r cost/income r a t i o o f . 3 0 + . 5. Renter households under age 65 having incomes below $ 1 3 , 0 0 0 per year.. 3. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ^ g f , t a r g e t households d e s c r i b e d a r e : number of p e r s o n s , number o f p a r e n t s , s o u r c e o f i n c o m e , age o f head, number of c h i l d r e n , number o f bedrooms, persons per bedroom, sguare f e e t per person, c o n d i t i o n of dwelling u n i t . 4. The distributi 1978 i s estimated households to t o t a l t r a c t , and a p p l y i n g dwellings i n 1978 municipal records).  o n o f t a r q e t h o u s e h o l d s by n e i g h b o u r h o o d to by d e r i v i n g a r a t i o o f low income t e n a n t t e n a n t - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s f o r 1 9 7 1 by c e n s u s t h i s t o t h e t o t a l number o f t e n a n t - o c c u p i e d (1976 Census p l u s i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d from  5 . . C . H . P . . P r o d u c t i o n T a r g e t s #1 w h i c h a s s u m e n o c h a n g e i n the scope and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f C.H.P..are based upon t h e p r o j e c t e d number o f t a r g e t h o u s e h o l d s , m i n u s : a) l o w i n c o m e r e n t e r s who have been housed i n assisted low income r e n t a l u n i t s from 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 7 8 b) s i n g l e p e r s o n t a r g e t h o u s e h o l d s ( a s t h e y a r e n o t e l i g i b l e f o r C.H.P. h o u s i n g ) c) p r o d u c t i o n t a r g e t s f o r o t h e r a s s i s t e d l o w i n c o m e u n i t s (i.e., a s i d e f r o m C.H.P.) d) consideration o f l o w l e v e l o f d e m a n d f o r C.H.P. u n i t s ( d u e primarily tc suburban location, minimal marketing and advertising procedures). 6.. C ^ H ^ P i P r o d u c t i o n T a r g e t s . # 2 assume f u n d a m e n t a l changes a r e made t o t h e p r o g r a m with respect to location, unit sizes, a d v e r t i s i n g , and t h e e l i g i b i l i t y o f s i n g l e p e r s o n s , r e s u l t i n g i n much higher targets. The a u t h o r s do n o t e x p l a i n t h e d e t a i l s a s t o how t h e s e t a r g e t s a r e d e r i v e d .  104  CHART 10: METROPOLITAN TORONTO - Low Income R e n t a l A s s i s t e d H o u s i n g , M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o P l a n n i n g Dept., Purpose  1977.  1. t o a s s i s t i n f o r m u l a t i n of p o l i c y on a s s i s t e d h o u s i n g 2. t o examine p r e s e n t and f u t u r e needs f o r a s s i s t e d h o u s i n g i n T o r o n t o h o u s i n g market a r e a 3. t o o f f e r g u i d a n c e on p r o v i n c i a l and m u n i c i p a l government participation within limits of e x i s t i n g programs. "The s t u d y ' s d e s i g n s e e k s ... t o i d e n t i f y t h a t p o r t i o n of h o u s e h o l d s i n the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n which meets the e l i g i b i l t y c r i t e r i a e s t a b l i s h e d by the O n t a r i o H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n and the M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o H o u s i n g Company L t d . , and t o e v a l u a t e both the demand c r e a t e d by t h i s group p r o j e c t e d i n t o the f u t u r e and the c o s t i m p l i c a t i o n s of s a t i s f y i n g v a r i o u s l e v e l s of t h i s demand." (P. 3-D  Format  l e n g t h - 111 pgs. t a b l e s , maps, graphs  G e o g r a p h i c Scope Cost  n o n t e c h n i c a l language - no v i s u a l emphasis of i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s  - 100  "Four C e n t r a l R e g i o n s " and Durham) .  (Metropolitan Toronto, Peel,  - no  York,  $80,000 Topic  Area  Issues Discussed  1. Demographic Analysis  -projection total population -projection a l l h ' h o l d "heads by age, m a r i t a l status  2, Q u a n t i t y . Housing  Stock  -available housing  3- Q u a l i t y Housing  Stock  assisted  Data  Sources  Methodology cohort  p l a n n i n g dept. projection model  survival  translate population projections a c c o r d i n g to 6 marital status and 6 age groups  Metro. Toronto H o u s i n g Co. , Ontario Housing Corp., CMHC records  4. S u i t a b i l i t y Housing Stock 5- A f f o r d a b i l i t y  - h ' h o l d head income r a n g e s by age, m a r i t a l s t a t u s , tenure, 1975 -profile assisted households characteristics  6. S p e c i a l Needs of 7. A s p e c t s L o c a l Environment  —  Census,  1971  Metro. Toronto H o u s i n g Co., Ontario Housing Corp., r e c o r d s  f a c t o r up incomes (1)  100%  inventory  1 i n 7 random sample  105 I  CHART  10: Topic  8.  METROPOLITAN Area  Housing Requirements  9 • Targe ts  TORONTO  (cont'd)  Issues  Discussed  -  level  of  service  Data  Sources  current no. assisted h'holds  - l e v e l of service targe ts (2) - p r o j e c t i o n of range of assisted housing targets be  1981,  10.  11.  C o s t of A c t i n g Analysis  Other  achieved or  compare % assisted h'holds by m u n i c i p a l i t y and region penetration factors (2) apply penetration factors to h ' h o l d head projections  1975-1991  -to  Methodology  1991  -by government program: a ) 100% rent g e a r e d to income b ) 100% rent supplement c ) 70% g e a r e d to i n c o m e a n d 30% supplement -per capita cost -maintenance costs  Metre. Toronto Housing C o . , Ontario Housing C o r p . , CMHC records  Metro. Toronto Housing C o . , Ontario Housing C o r p . , CMHC records  determine example unit cost prices prices, subsidei subsidies, and capital costs. takes i n t o aco account inflatio inflation  106  NOTES TO CHART  10: METROPOLITAN  TORONTO  1. I n o r d e r t o u p d a t e 1971 C e n s u s information on households* i n c o m e s , t h e a u t h o r s f a c t o r up i n c o m e s b y t a J c i n g i n t o a c c o u n t a) t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n g r o w t h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a v e r a g e w e e k l y wages and s a l a r i e s by industrial division, b) the increase i n unemployment a n d a s s o c i a t e d i n c o m e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and c) t h e increase i n social assistance recipients.. 1971 Census i n f o r m a t i o n was g r o u p e d a n d u p d a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of household heads r e l e v a n t t o these three f a c t o r s . The a u t h o r s d e t e r m i n e d 1975 i n c o m e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of employed household heads (by a p p l y i n g i n c r e a s e s i n wages a n d s a l a r i e s 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 7 5 ) , unemployed household heads and those r e c e i v i n g s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e (change f o r m 1971-1975) by age g r o u p , m a r i t a l s t a t u s and income ranges. . Computer programs were run t o complete t h i s task. R e p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e 16 s t e p s u s e d t o u p d a t e 1971 i n c o m e s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x B.  2. Housing requirements a r e presented as a function of l e v e l _ o f service targets , which i n t u r n a r e derived by a p p l i c a t i o n o f penetration factors . A " p e n e t r a t i o n f a c t o r " i s d e f i n e d as t h e ratio o f a s s i s t e d r e n t a l household heads t o t h e t o t a l household heads w i t h i n s i x m a r i t a l s t a t u s c a t e g o r i e s by s i x aqe groups (p. , 1 2 ) . . P e n e t r a t i o n f a c t o r s w e r e p r o d u c e d by c o m p i l i n g d a t a o f characteristics o f c u r r e n t a s s i s t e d r e n t a l h o u s e h o l d heads and r e l a t i n g them t o c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . This analysis produced penetration factors which indicated the extent o f the population meeting t h e eligibility criteria for assisted housing who participate i n the available programs.. The s t u d y r e l a t e d these p e n e t r a t i o n f a c t o r s t o t h e f u t u r e growth of t h e p o p u l a t i o n which i n d i c a t e d t h e extent o f f u t u r e n e e d b a s e d o n ihe existing level of service. . I t further examined the p o t e n t i a l f o r p r o v i d i n g a higher provision level of service t o satisfy unmet housing need e x i s t i n g i n t h e b a s e y e a r o f t h e s t u d y , 1975, by a n a l y z i n g those meeting e l i g i b i l i t y c r i t e r i a b u t who were u n a b l e t o o b t a i n a c c o m o d a t i o n i n 1975 b e c a u s e o f an i n s u f f i c i e n t s t o c k o f a s s i s t e d h o u s i n g . , (p..1.3). Thus " l e v e l o f s e r v i c e t a r g e t s " a r e based either on current penetration factors ("expressed need") o r t h o s e t h a t t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t t h e a d d i t i o n a l "unmet n e e d " . C r i t e r i a f o r two s e t s of targets related t o unmet need a r e presented which take i n t o a c c o u n t a g e , m a r i t a l s t a t u s and income r a n g e o f the household head, and s i z e o f t h e household. The f i r s t c o n c e n t r a t e s on t h e n e e d s o f s e n i o r s ; t h e s e c o n d on t h e n e e d s o f f a m i l i e s .  107  III..  _Sammar_y_ The  studies reviewed  characteristic to  achieve  given  i n common.  theobjectives  f o r each The  of  attributes  needs. the  households*  data  i n  requirement  The  requirements  final  fiqures  need  purposes data  are and  only..  to  by u n i t  Victoria,  concerning  detail  detailed  breakdown  employed  the findings  Critical  t o t h e methodologies  headship  rate  utilize  not  Each  extent by  by  of the  establishing  integrated to  be  these  into  estimates  from  problem These  for  employ  the Cornwall  studies  C.M.H.C. provide  and a more  three studies  of Housing_Units  studies  household  housing  presented  however  Survey  incomes  studies  and Winnipeg  these  estimated  Similarly,  reguirements.  of  market  r e q u i r e m e n t s . ..  allocation  of determining  housing  are not  tarqets,  of these  i n order  approach  appear  o f t h e C.M.H.C.  of  this  population projections  technique.  sources  The  the affordability  of housing  method  The a u t h o r s  vs. actual  Both  Waterloo,  notes  units  of  determine  and  and Cornwall)  are  estimated  of housinq  greater  survival  method".  roughly  groups  a r e auqmented The  turn  requirements  findings  estimates,  information  in  o f data  r e q u i r e d incomes t o a f f o r d  on s p e c i a l  targets  i s  framework.,  variety  "traditional  problem  (Halifax  of the current local  Housing  the.populations.  included  a wide  tables  was a c c o m p l i s h e d .  an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  d e s c r i b e major  affordability  how t h i s  an i m p o r t a n t  i n i t s own f a s h i o n  The  two s t u d i e s reviewed  s t u d i e s have used  employing  as o u t l i n e d .  first  these  housing  has succeeded  explain  essentially  and  Each  c h a p t e r have  study  employ  to  i nthis  i s  use  of the  projections,  based  studies  .  which  upon t h e c o h o r t puts  forward  108  assumptions  concerning  regarding  tenure,  problems),  which  Once t h e s e one  point  household  the  they  according  "baby  to  age  hypothesized,  The W a t e r l o o  provide  greater  than  one p r o j e c t i o n  the  future.  based  combines a t t r i b u t e s addition,  goes  o f each  one  step  wide  of  and  unit  households  this,  i t  preferences  studies  in  estimates  i s  i n the  particular  also  by p r e s e n t i n g  more  assumptions  concerning  two s t u d i e s augment f i n d i n g s o f Approach  to  determine  problem.  further.  of data  Due  distribution time,  of the  range  a very  estimates  to  study  from  of  primarily  age g r o u p s .  t h e Budget  organizational  These  age  the  different  Halifax/Cornwall  by  i n  of the a f f o r d a b i l i t y Vancouver  projections  changes  these  extent  scenarios),  future  their  upon  the  future  account  housing  S.H.U..study by employing  or  at  past  over  the  upon c o n d i t i o n s  1  projecting  the  in  head.  simply  and Winnipeg  In addition,  The  1  boom",  detail  affordability  than  within  affect  future.  or  future conditions.  changes  will  (based  trends,  into  of households  post-war  made  accurate  take  guality  household  t o estimate  c h a r a c t e r i s e s (be t h e y  t o t h e age o f t h e h o u s e h o l d  been  to  t o b e more  unit  past  are applied  as  proportion  have  time,  head  occupancy  type,  are related  i n  be s e e n  trends,  unit  assumptions  proportions  may  housing  utilizes  an  preceding The s t u d y  approach sources.  as  approach studies  which  and,  i s similar  i n  to the  i t collects  This i s especially  data true  L i t e r a t u r e concerning housing occupancy c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s point t o a h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between housing p r e f e r e n c e s and households' " l i f e c y c l e " , which i s r e l a t e d t o age o f t h e h o u s e h o l d head ( s e e C h a p t e r 1) . .  109  of  the  discussion  similar  to  affordability  1976  to  by  unit  type  Trends  attempts  take  to which  approach also  within i s termed  (These  i n c l u d e d , as  housinq  current  employing as  Quebec  commissioned  a methodology  their  study by  the  cost is  Metropolitan  and  computer  Montreal,  estimating  a  authors  term  study  also  future supply  bases  Scenario". of  and  qovernment Catch  of not  This  The  households  study whose  program  Up"  The  of  method  17  separate  r e p o r t which  outlines  demand and  housing  i t s findings  the  1971  need  i n p a r t on  m o d e l "SIMLOM" c o n d u c t e d on  but  projection.  compendiu.m  Province.  and  assuminq  implications.  for determining effective  survey  from  discussed  feasible  " K e e p Up  Quebec's m e t r o p o l i t a n areas  housing  have  number  or  the  this  requirements  the  data  requirements  the  probable  studies  study,  projections  projections  the  The  for  housing  "Development Trends  to  well  approach  However,  account  in pinpointing  The  for  the  utilizes  upon h o u s e h o l d  previous  correspond  reports  needs groups.  projects  Scenario".)  their  options. . Targets are  and  based  into  the  succeeds  needs  special  budget  patterns.  "Demographic  included  the  problems,  occupancy  housinq  housing  Victoria/Waterloo/Winnipeg,  S.H.U. a u g m e n t e d  according  of  i n 1972  Census  a  for  bulletin  0  " H o u s e h o l d s by  Income  Characteristics  and  Provinces". . demand"  this  demand and  By  The Metropolitan  Living  Head  similar  factor  three  households  to Vancouver,  rely  studies quite  Selected Dwelling for  Canada  with a  brings  i n estimating housing  remaining  Toronto)  Showing  Conveniences  estimating those  study,  supply  Group of  "frustrated  together  both  requirements.  (Ottawa-Carleton,  havily  and  upon c o m p u t e r  Alberta, programs  110  to  quantify  housing  concentrates  upon  the  aqe  i n the  of  their  of  65  income  H.I.F.E..survey  public  the  housing,  public  developed of  the  a  the  as  market model Similar  The  model  developed  "penetration households provided assisted  factors" to  data  The the  studies,  as  To  this  total  data  end.  methodologies  as  Chapter  based to  paying  30%  the By  population in  of the  this  4 which  by  study,  follows, a local  rental  large study.  based  upon  heads  of  Cross-tabulations  of h o u s e h o l d s (1971  living  i n  Census d a t a ) .  chapter,  leads  employed  us by  needs  the  issues  study.  to  these  manuals of Chapter  re-examines  housing  a  the  assisted  the  study  tabulations  i s  methodologies  advocated  in  concerning  Toronto  heads).  and  living  special  Alberta  more  comparing  Ottawa-Carleton  upon  of  or  S.H.U.  currently  the  ratio  contained  of c o n d u c t i n g  under  base.  The  Metropoltan  total  those  households  recommendations  characteristics  implications well  data  at  household  to the  study  were r e g u i r e d t o c o m p l e t e  (the  comparing  housing  consider  by  alberta  utilizes  program.  number o f c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n s  range  households  arrive  housing  Census.  and  their  target  (renter  income  shelter)  authors  housing  1971  lcwer t h i r d  results of  The  "tarqet households"  for  characteristics  Alberta's  requirements.  2. and  111  CHAPTER_4l_A_FEM—OfiJ_FO^ STUDIES  This housing  chapter  The  the  i s s u e s and  p l a n n e r s s h o u l d c o n s i d e r when c o n d u c t i n g  needs s t u d y . first  outlines  The  chapter  considers "Context  third  section  of t h e  i s  presented  Issues", the chapter  in  a  local  three  second,  briefly  methodologies housing  parts..  The  "Content  Issues".  summarizes the  material  presented. "Context be  produced.  Issues" affect  Included  objectives,  research  judgements.  A  observations these  brief  the  "Content and  methodologies  contained those  within  outlined  analysis,  and  of  of the  cost of  Data stock  report.  in  the  form  particular information  housing  to the  the  environment,  to  study's  of  value  author's  treatment  of  reviewed.. appropriate data  topic  areas  sources  topic  areas  coincide  3—i.e. ,  stock, guality  stock,  the  the  with regard to s p e c i f i c These  study  with  demographic  of  housing  stock,  affordabiity,  special  needs,  housing  reguirements,  targets,  analysis..  basis  aspects as  of  studies  r e g a r d i n g demcgrahics the  outlines  c h a r t s of Chapter  housing  of  treatment  implications  employ  the  local  and  discussion the  the type  c o n s i d e r a t i o n of  format,  Issues" refer to  acting  i s  ten Canadian  q u a n t i t y of  suitability aspects  model,  concerning  i s s u e s by  here  overall  base  of  for  and  determining  housing  data, analyse  need  guantity housing  investigated  i t and  investigate  of  housing  need. use  The this  further  to  112  f i l l  i n any i n f o r m a t i o n  combined  (ideally)  targets  may  addition  t o taking  the  be  capacity  to  gaps.  Each  produce  s e t using into  of  account  a p a r t i c u l a r time  cost  to  the  topics  reguirement  Finally,  municipality  or  targets  i n  programs o r  upon t h e f i n d i n g s  considerations  region  then  Housing  findings  government  agenci.es t o a c t  frame.  i s  requirements.  available  recommendations and implementing may  these  housing  housing  government  within  of  of  included  of the  actinq i nthe  upon study,  be s p e c i f i e d . DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS QUANTITY HOUSING : STOCK NEEDS: -Quality -Suitability -Affordability - S p e c i a l Needs -Aspects L o c a l Environment  Figure  5: C o n t e n t I s s u e s  Each  o f t h e Content  its  purpose  with  theissue,  and  alternatives. studies  COST OF ACTING ANALYSIS  RECOMMENDATIONS and TARGETS  HOUSING REQUIREMENTS  Issues  importance, c)  advantages  The  alternative  i n Chapter  suggestions  from  t h e manuals  I.  Context  Issues  1..  OBJECTIVES Generally  i n terms  o f a)  b) a l t e r n a t i v e m e t h o d s o f d e a l i n g  and  reviewed  i s discussed  3,  and  disadvantages  of the  methods  are derived  from t h e  as  discussed  speaking,  well,  where  i n Chapter  the  applicable,  2.  complexity  of  the  113  methodologies to  the  specificity  Halifax  of  study's  information past  employed  and  on  housing  and  data.  Other  housing  p r o b l e m s and  resulted  application  of  subsidized to  be  of  requirements particular to  Often persons has  other  than  discretion  allow  f o r the  study  i s  action  to  within  the  the  in  the  alleviate report..  of  housing  the  to  research  proposals.  assess  of  and  the  of  the  upon  of  the  publically employed  specific  future  investigation  region's  households  of  compared  criteria..  study  are  determined  However, i f the  study's  purpose,  potential.  needs  Two  methodologies  contribute  wide-  assembled  particularly  planner. the  were  recommendations,  original  the  the  present,  identification  program  including  of  i f i t can housing  the  the  available  previously  eligibility  practical  example,  together  construction  the  future  defining  useful  of  detail  objectives  greatest  most  upon  housing,  possible  of  concentrated  characteristics  e x i s t i n g and  of  included  these cases,  such  For  demand i n H a l i f a x " )  degree  needs  corresponded  market c o n d i t i o n s ;  implementation  sufficient  for  and  development  Alberta)  housing  bring  collection  greater  In  ("to  stock  reviewed  objectives.  objectives  findings to  units.  studies  n e e d s and  the  a  (Toronto,  effect  had  of  ten  studies'  i n the  studies'  necessitated  studies  the  housing  ranging  which  the  objectives  the  future  by  A  toward  described  s/he  planner should  housing  needs  proposals and  by  for  analysed  114  No research program can be j u s t i f i e d i f i t merely a t t e m p t s t o prove the o b v i o u s , at g r e a t expense t o the public. Nor can a research program be deemed effective i f i t delves i n t o a r e a s where a d d i t i o n a l d a t a c a n make n o difference in policy formulation. ... A v a l i d p u b l i c l y - s u p p o r t e d r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m must be one whose findings will help remove doubt or clarify public issues and thus facilitate the f o r m u l a t i o n o f p o l i c y and the making of decisions. (Raymond, 1970, pp. .203-204) 2.  RESEARCH  MODELS  The second two  issue.  research  housing (the  The  be  data  those  Most two have wide that  of  of  outlined  of  the  range  They a r e  often  of the  as  of  original  sources..  in  which  each  assessment  of  the  data  and  and  i n Chapter  Cornwall  3 are  secondary i s then  housinq  a  and  re-assembled  and  not  need i s n o t  consider the  realistic  i t i s important  implications  c a u s a l framework difficult  to  of  proposed achieve  the by in  studies  similar 2.  hybrid of  the  researchers from  meet  those  seme o f  a  final Thus,  researcher  collected, the  practice  the  study  in practice.  data  the  of  causal  to achieve  f o r the  a  yet causal i n to  just  to  Chapter  possible  sources  causal  framework.  in that the as  of  related  C.C.S.D. i n  component i s i n t e r r e l a t e d  carefully  extremely  the  data  I t appears t h a t a s t r i c t l y  i n qeneral terms  be  the  researcher  althouqh  theoretical  and  organizational  collected  requirements data  b)  organizational  much r e l e v a n t d a t a  primary data  consider  s t u d i e s f o l l o w s a c a u s a l framework Teplitz,  collected  an  to  the  (the assembly and  of  Halifax  model i s  us  fashion), types  The  s t u d i e s examined  approaches. often  orderly  need).  2 led  organizational  following  the by  Chapter  different  housing  none o f  appropriate research  the  i n an  c a t e g o r i z e d as  However,  an  d i s c u s s i o n of  interrelation  may  of  model t y p e s — a )  related  indicators  to  choice  manuals (due  to  to the may  data  115  information 3.  VALUE  gaps, and time JUDGEMENTS  As vis  pointed  a v i s value  the  out i n Chapter  j u d g e m e n t s may  2, t h e r e s e a r c h e r ' s  greatly affect  the  approach  findings  of  study.. Three  Carleton, input. with  the have  The Quebec s t u d y  provincial,  first  Paper"  community were  then  culminated  and municipal  The  study  published  Ottawa-  account  public  or interviews  government  agencies,  (136 i n t o t a l ) . .  was c o m p l e t e d  i n two  stages.  Discussion  by members o f t h e g e n e r a l industry.  separately  prior  Their  public, reactions  to the publication  Eeport".  published  of future  into  i n t h e p u b l i c a t i o n o f "A  reviewed  "Final  (Quebec,  submissions from  and t h e development  i n turn  the study's  discussion  included  taken  and i n t e r e s t groups  was t h e n  groups  reviewed  explicitly  Ottawa-Carleton  stage  which  studies  metropolitan  organizations The  The  of  Vancouver)  citizens  of  and c o s t c o n s t r a i n t s ) .  Vancouver  report  was a  "first  cut" to  actions:  It i s hoped t h a t t h e r e p o r t s , t h e debate surrounding them a n d t h e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s f o r m e d a r o u n d the issues will shape the future housing p o l i c i e s of the City. ( C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 7 9 , p . 1-1) In research studies groups  response  directors stressed  i n the  to  and/or  the  questionnaire,  planninq  the importance  the  authors,  d i r e c t o r s of three  of involving different  of the  interest  study.  I n v o l v e t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r and t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c , b u t at different times and at different levels. (Winnipeg) Try to involve a s many actors i n the possible, i . e . , Housing A u t h o r i t i e s , C i v i l  study as Servants,  116  Developers,  Lenders,  etc..  (Victoria)  P l a n on d r a f t f o r m a t w i t h a m p l e i n p u t from ( i n c l u d i n g those i n need). (Vancouver) It  i s  not  Toronto  known  what d e g r e e t h e  studies solicited Due  about  to  to the  housing  have the study's  needs,  approach are  and  input.  range  of  input  is  a  interest  i t i s important their  findings.  i n fact  C o r n w a l l and  public  opportunity to state  problems public  wide  those  concerned  t h a t opposing  viewpoints  case  with  regard  confronted  most k n o w l e d g e a b l e data  Metropolitan  groups  As t h o s e  valuable  "experts"  source  to  the  with  housing  of t h e i r  nature,  for  housing  needs  studies. 4. . FORMAT If understood problems is  the  by and  essential  make t h e  Chapter  3  Particular  the  public  planner and  alternative  understood. . to  housing  that  the  Graphics, study  methods  are noted—e.g.,  notes..  The  format,  as  Winnipeg been  to use  i s an  as  t o be  programs a r e be  of each  visually of  italics,  example  discussed i n the  issues,  and  The  easily  enormously charts  study's  emphasize  of a r e p o r t  important  with 5.  of  format.  subheadings,  Notes to Chart  and  complex, i t  clear  a wide audience.  read  housing  even c a r t o o n s , a i d  descriptions  the  study  to  and  study  and  style  maps, and  employed  points  has  writing  brief  the  politicians,  policies  accessible  include  wishes  margin good  117  I I C o n t e n t  1.  Issues  DEMOGRAPHIC A N A L Y S I S  Purpose/Importance: Demographic housing  needs study  housing  requirements.  analyst  needs  are  and w i l l  The  more  Clearly  detail  the  units  i s  total  example,  how  how  much  can  housed, many  housinq  provide  be a b l e  so  people i s  the there  required. .  regarding  and f u t u r e h o u s e h o l d s  degree o f s e v e r i t y  closely  related  a  (e.g.,  age of h o u s e h o l d  the  family  head) t h e  to provide regarding the type  of housing  units  and a l i k e l y  between  increased  affordability occur,  unnoticed  expected,  to  and  problems i n c r e a s e with  changes changes  characteristics..  For  population size an  increased  (as p r i c e housing  cater to the general  housing i n  of  total  Due  demand  of  rises),  for  housing,  overcrowding  needs w i l l  likely  go  market. are  Although  population  at a given  to the l a g time  supply  households  planner.  housing the  increased  special  characteristics the  i n  of  i n population size,  and household  results  demand  and g r o u p s  The  significant  changes  variety  increase i n i t s price.  as b u i l d e r s  important  to  of a wide  marked i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l  housing  may  and foremost  of children,  number o f h o u s e h o l d s  supply  i n g r e d i e n t t o any  reguired. , The  needs  be  analyst  of present number  must  t o judqe  more i n f o r m a t i o n s/he w i l l of  people  first  be i n o r d e r  non-family,  i s a necessary  as i t provides a b a s i s f o r e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e  t o know  characteristics or  analysis  i n  growth  i n t h e number o f p a r t i c u l a r  especially some  may  household  cases  not  be  groups  118  will  affect  expected note of  housing  increase  family  f o rfamily  housing  f o r 1 bedroom a  result,  expensive.  will not  also  need  Linear  affect  into  the  This  " d e m a n d " may  soon  average  and, as a  household  size  r e q u i r e d whether o r  In development  upon  i s the only  households,  from  study  growth  which  rate  employs  number o f  average  households,  household  size;  Sate  and  the  headship  rate  technigue method f o r  Some o f t h e s t u d i e s p r o v i d e l o w , m e d i u m ,  s c e n a r i o s , based  rates,  expected  rate  1951 - 1 9 7 1 f o r t o t a l  total  and  past  a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f p a s t t r e n d s t o 199 1.  projections  headship  account  based  T r e n d s were p l o t t e d  projections.  Development  which  units  concurrently  o t h e r s t u d i e s employ t h e c o h o r t s u r v i v a l  high growth  specific  study  Survival/Headship  population  and  are  p o p u l a t i o n by a g e g r o u p ,  All  household  orientation,  and  t h e number o f u n i t s  The H a l i f a x  p r o j e c t e d assuming  for  i s important to  a r e i n short supply  trends i n  an  alters.  and non-family  b) C o h o r t  may d e c r e a s e .  projections  technigue.  population,  and  (ground  example,  Projection  trends only.  family  households  increase  units  For  Methods:  Linear  this  units  Shifting  population size  Alternative  will  i fs u i t a b l e  greatly  significantly.  young  2 bedrooms and l a r g e r )  become  c)  i n  a s t h e demand  demand  a)  needs  upon  or modified  socioeconomic  past  historic  trends  i n age-  t r e n d s which  take  influences.  Trends  addition,  t h e Vancouver  trends to estimate  c o u l d be housed  study  made  t h e nuaber and s i z e  should these  trends  use of  of  past  households  c o n t i n u e , and compared  119  this  with  t h e headship  rate  method r e s u l t s .  Commentary: The preferable  cohort  over  linear  accuracy  regarding  household  head  the  based  solely  projections  the  number  and household  distribution  significantly  survival/headship  of  upon p a s t  (family  Canadian  (due p r i m a r i l y t o trends  they  of future  type  the  as  rate  the  methods  provide  are  greater  h o u s e h o l d s by age o f or  non-family) ..  population "baby  i s  boom")  are misleading..  As  changing  projections  T h e U.N.  manual  states: The h e a d s h i p r a t e m e t h o d i s t h e most adeguate f o r several reasons. I t uses the available population p r o j e c t i o n s by s e x , age a n d m a r i t a l s t a t u s a n d i t c a n assess the extent t o which future changes i nt h e number o f h o u s e h c l d s will be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the effect of changes i n the s t r u c t u r e of the population on t h e o n e h a n d a n d t o e c o n o m i c a n d s o c i a l c h a n g e s on the other. ( U . N . , 1 9 7 3 , p . 15) Vancouver's interesting housing local  "development  as i ti m p l i e s  supply,  but  that  that  trends"  not only  does  the reverse  scenario  population  may a l s o  i s  affect  be t r u e  at the  level. All  of the studies  base t h e i r  projections  upon  Census  C.C.S.D. m a n u a l h a s r e c o m m e n d e d  greater  data. Although detail  i n describing  eight  types;  project  characteristics  of  households  Ch„ .2) , n o n e o f t h e s t u d i e s  these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o t h e future..  household feasible, children  see  the  s i z e other as  than  a s one a v e r a g e  i ti s impossible  families will  have..  t o gauge The  figure i n such  (i.e.,  by  has attempted t o Projections  of  a p p e a r n o t t o be detail  how  C.C.S.D. c a t e g o r i z a t i o n  many of  120  household  types  manual  i s useful  does  not  characteristics  f o r the  suggest  into  the  2 . . Q U A N T I T Y HOUSING  present  situation,  methods  tc  however  project  the  household  future.  STOCK  Purpose/Impcrtance: Characteristics needs  significantly.  given  year  rarely type  (over and  exceeds  of  units  2%  clear  to  above  available,  to  Alternative  of  the  the  constructed  in  housing..  of  population housing  housing  quantity  The  of  any  units)  number  and  growth  need.  planner  and  Thus, i n  must h a v e  housing  a  available  Methods: of  the  concerning  g u a n t i t y of  Statistics  , the This  studies housing  data  density,  location,  and  Municipal  permits  update the  from  collected  C.M.H.C.'s  information concerning  single  detached),  recent  C.M.H.C.or  unit  demolitions  r e g a r d i n g d e m o l i t i o n s and  latest  has  data Housing  municipal permits..  provides row,  reviewed stock  Census, and/or  duplex,  to  need,  housing  r e p l a c e demolished  with  types  affect  type.  Each  (apartment,  which  available  a l l  housing  understanding  according  those  stock  housing  i n concert  affects  determine  housing  Additional  of a c i t y ' s  characteristics, order  of the  Statistics  unit  size,  and  type  tenure,  conversions.  conversions are Canada  used  data..  Commentary: Collecting overview important  of  data  from  characteristics  characteristics  these of  relating  sources the  to  i s adeguate f o r  housing .quality  stock.. and  price  an  Other must  121  often  be  researched  elsewhere  [see  below  "quality",  "affordability").  3. . Q U A L I T Y  HOUSING  STOCK  Purpose/Importance: Inadequate need.  In  should  order  to assess  be.replaced,  physical located  the  condition within  Alternative a)  quality  of  the reqion  housinq how  many  housinq units  i s units  to  know  the  housinq i s  c o n c e r n i n q aqe o f  dwellinqs,  study.  Census Census  units  provides data  ten  years.  The aqe o f d w e l l i n g s h a s been  for  housinq  quality  did  r e p o r t on " c o n d i t i o n Windshield A  condition the  w i t h b a t h , shower  of units  Market  condition  (see  Notes  Survey  as  a  of dwellinq"  every  surroqate The C e n s u s  i n 1961 o n l y . .  survey  which  i n particular investiqated  areas  cateqorizes the exterior was c a r r i e d  quality  cf housinq  o u t by  3  of  stock.  Model  Ottawa-Carleton of dwellinq  units  study  updated  by e m p l o y i n g  196 1 C e n s u s  results  regression equations  t o Chart 8 ) . o f Housing The  good,  used  facilities  Survey  7 s t u d i e s which Housinq  and t o i l e t  i n some o f t h e s t u d i e s r e v i e w e d .  windshield  The  d)  housing  quality  those  on  needs  poor  and  c)  of  Methods:  The  b)  form  require renovation or  planner  a n d where  under  one  Units  (S.H.U.)  S.H.U. c l a s s e d d w e l l i n g u n i t s  according  to  11  characteristics  as  poor,  fair,  of the exterior  or  of the  122  building. Commentary: Use method  of  points  out  of  too  age  may  housing  may  be  of  the  as  assessment  of  a  very  guality.  of  The  satisfactory  C.M.H.C..manual  Depending  upon  to  (including  guality  of  sagging  roof,  minimizes  (e.q.,  the  1961  only.  Census)  fact  examines  the the  to  condition  of  drop  guestions  score  unit,  r e l a t i n g to local  techniques  and  building  may  or  opposed  to  qood,  poor,  very  to  of  consider  poor).  on  particular  broken  ranking  be  1960. stock,  materials, the  which a  conditions loose a  some  defects  uniform  on  the  interior  overcome t o  windows,  conditions  the  in  housing  reflect  may  conditions  absence  as  not  problems  trained  wood,  may  in  caused  guality  the  These  or  the  of  units  decaying  bias  in  standardizing  unit.  presence  not  in  building  the  are  and  Difficulty  important Noting  upkeep  guality.  are  to  of  occur  degree i f i n t e r v i e w e r s and  degree  i t  may  of  the  upon t h e  guality,  Problems  construction condition  housing  "alternatives"  characteristics  exterior  of  stock.  dwellings  responses Census  indicator  depending  exterior  American  an  remaining each  condition  including  as  housing  three  different,  individual  used  inaccurate  The  basis  not  have shown t h a t t h e r e is little correlation this indicator [lack of basic plumbing e s ] and s t r u c t u r a l h o u s i n g a d e q u a c y , possibly of the low incidence of d w e l l i n q s without c i l i t i e s i n t h e l a r q e u r b a n a r e a s . . ... Lack f a c i l i t i e s occurs almost exclusively i n r u r a l ( C . M . H . C , 1978, pp. 16-17)  be  exterior  is  that:  renovation  very  Census alone  determining  Studies between faciliti because basic f a of such areas. Althouqh  the  are  scale. (e.g., bricks)  qualitative  123  In interior A  order  condition  study  to of  prepared  conduct  units  by  a  will  the  households  exterior  i n the  city  defects,  Social  facilities  absent  alternative  means o f e g r e s s  as  a  subjective  building,  and  the  inadeguate  housing  quality.  In  of the  this  and  not  be  similar  available.  alternative. studies  4..  to  and  by  the  unless  local  previously In  use  conducted  of the i n the  Winnipeg over major  amenities  or  absence  of  u n i t d w e l l i n g s ; as  adeguacy  the  household. to  and  determine types  a  of the  well  unit,  the  Analysis  of  who  in  lives  of housing  high c o r r e l a t i o n  of  poor  between  disrepair. housing  needs  published studies,  this case,  cost. .  number o f  the  location  degree of  the  building;  for multiple  researchers  and  (Note:  be  unit  of  and  interviewed  defects,  i n s t a n c e , t h e r e was  building  to  the  the  However, access  interior  neighbourhood  allowed  197 9)  investigated  evaluation  responses  age  from  i n c l u d e s the  P l a n n i n g C o u n c i l of  March,  and  minor  which  require greater time  (Housing, C o n d i t i o n s i n Winnipeg, 1500  survey  studies such  a windshield survey S.H.U. s t u d y  i s now  have  detail  may  i s the  best  outdated  for  1980's.)  SUITABILITY  Purpose/Importance: The between  characteristics  household. set size  Any  norm.. of  household  suitability  For  discussion example,  household, and  an  of a housing of the  unit  unit and  of s u i t a b i l i t y i n comparing "acceptable"  some " i n d i c a t o r  of  refers  match  characteristics is the  dependant size  ratio  unit  to the  size  of  of  of upon  unit  persons i s  to  the a the per  established.  124  Overcrowdinq--i.e., of  housing  who  occupy  there  need. large  i s  which  may  occupy  when t h i s  units)  set  may  floor  be  of  persons'  also  use  states  be  of the  that  ground-oriented  nonetheless  i s surpassed--is  Underutilization  inefficient be  norm  housing  units. .  housing  households  sufficient i s  size  on  be  norm should  the  a norm f o r  units  as  Another  children  i t  Similarly,  aspect  problem,  stock.  of  i f  that  a  with  unit  family  require  (small  p e r c e i v e d as  A  building..  may  units  families  unsuitable for a  a high-rise  of  one  may 12th  disabled  accessible  to  wheelchairs. It examine  i s  but  together.  features,  are  of  the  which  examine  can  not  to s i z e ,  poorly  for  the  population  should  according  Alternative a)  s/he  Households  defined  design  sufficient  characteristics  separately,  it  not  how  housinq and  planner  housinq  aspects  obtain suitable  to  stock  of both f i t housing,  g r o u n d - o r i e n t a t i o n , or  be  necessary  housed.  Methods:  Census The  Census  includes  households  that  have  more  number o f  families  who  Special  tabulations  for  Occupancy  Standard  do  not  statistics  than  on  one  person  maintain  their  specific  the per  number  of  room, and  the  own  households.  geographic  areas  are  available. b)  Minimum  The  Victoria  overcrowding  based  per  size  unit  household size  by  study  upon t h e  has  established  minimum  count  norm  to  assess  number o f bedrooms r e g u i r e d  (see Notes t o C h a r t  bedrocm  a  i s compared  3 ) . . Data to these  which  describes  requirements.  125  c)  Matching  Technigue  The however  alsc  households aspects  Vancouver  and  of  study  includes  has  taken  income  similar  approach,  characteristics  ground-orientation.  suitability—cost  a  The  of  study  the  unit,  of  family  combines size,  three  and  ground-  orientation . d)  Survey  of Housing  Units  The  of  occupation and  Survey  of  dwelling  per  i n t e r v a l s - - e . g . , the 0.49  to  given  which  over  units  provides  according to  person.  Each  at i n t e r v a l s  compares household  household  Units  index  inccme  of  size  data  on  the  persons-per^bedroom  index  persons-per-bedroom  3.50  persons-per-bedroom and  Housing  dwelling  area  (S.H.U.)  i s  presented  index ranges  from  in  under  0.5. . H o w e v e r , d a t a i s n o t  t o persons-per-bedroom.  i s compared  t o age  of  The  household  head  only.  Commentary: The importance  of  household.  or  varying Use  the Census) kitchen,  manuals'  of a  does not  living  norm  of overcrowding for  person-per-rocm  unit—i.e.,  Manual's  suggestion  index  account  takes  sguare that  i n apartments  a  unit  the type Neither  into  footage  distinction  vs. houses  by  of room, a  has  be  the of by i t  person-per-room size  metrage. be  size  (as employed  account or  stressed  size  indicator  room, bedroom, e t c .  dwelling  any  the  take i n t o  person-per-bedroom  overcrowding  discussion  of The  drawn  not been  the U.N.  between  attempted  by  of the . s t u d i e s . . Use  of h o u s e h o l d s  of the Census, who  have  which  more t h a n  tells  one  us  person  the aggregate per  room,  number  does  not  126  indicate  the  dwellings. sguare  number  We  do  not  footage  specified.  of  know t h e  (metrage)  The  under-cccupied size  and  of  do  or  the  not  over-occupied  dwelling  know t h e  unit  type  norm i s h e l d c o n s t a n t , r e g a r d l e s s  of  of  in  rooms  household  size. The theory room  upon type  household  minimum  use  occupancy  standard technigue  o f t h e C e n s u s on  (bedrocms o n l y ) , size,  and  2.  three  in practice,  successful  as  data  to  to  Chart  minimum  3  the  explain  i s  information available  why  there  stock,  but  we  and  overhoused  object  the  exercise.  only  a theoretical  large  units  occupancy  by  unit  Utilizing  which  f o r market  housing,  w i t h young  restrictions  reguired  are  technigue  children  the  The  to and  to  occupancy from  this and  proportion of i s  the  that information be  interesting who  of  control i t  prefer  available housing  i s  highly  the  number  desireable.  has  assessed  a c c o r d i n g t o f o u r income  income  Notes  stock  presumably  in utilization  size  matching  households  Small households  imbalance  very  reguirements  s t o c k may  exists  such  of  housing  noted  legislation  whether  a  between  housing  not  conclude  no  Vancouver's of f a m i l i e s  of  i s  actual  determine  viewpoint.  c r e a t e an  the  I t s h o u l d be  from  however  mismatch  size  the  only  households,  underutilization  housing,  on  can  specifies  under-occupied  available.. of  data  cannot  concerning  may  i s not  We  is a  underhoused  questionable  describes the  without  of  approach  comparison  misleading. that  of  this  persons-per-bedroom,  reguirements  pattern  which  in  i s adjusted according to  3..it allows consideration  However,  according  counts—1. .it  t h e norm  dwellings.  improves  approach  (see  ranges. below,  127  "affordability")  t h e authors have c a l c u l a t e d  which  are available  size  (2  of  bedroom)  units  act  upon.  This  accomodation  would  have  shortfall detail  a s t h e norm s e t f o r s u i t a b l e  t o t h e number o f p e r s o n s  made  the Victoria size  dwelling  area  this  may h a v e b e e n the  to  family  per person.  degree  most  which  leaves  current  Census data  for  specific  5..  AFFORDABILITY  to  along  household  type  o f a norm  i n Canadian  and  relevant to  only  to  metropolitan  i s now o u t  planners  with  Nonetheless,  persons-per-room  S.H.U. d a t a  housing  data  a p p r o p r i a t e . methodology  o f overcrowding  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however,  This  workable.  Establishment  the  does not compare  p e r bedroom.  approach  of household  area.  utilizing  adequate  The r e s u l t i n q  c u r i o u s t h a t t h e S.H.U. s t u d y  S.H.U. d o e s c o m p a r e  establish  of  i n f o r m a t i o n as i ti s o f s u f f i c i e n t  i s possible,  i s  size  data  as  i s precise.  It household  t h a t a r e a f f o r d a b l e as well and qround-oriented.  i s useful  t h e number o f u n i t s  the  of  date,  option  Vancouver's matching  of  technique  requirements.  Purpose/Importance The household's household design,  ability  aspect to  may l i v e  of  afford  i n good  portion  of  Methods:  a)  Income  Required  adeguate  Approach  need  relates  shelter..  housing  of s u i t a b l e  income,  t othe  Although  reguires the expenditure  the household's  housed.  Alternative  housing  guality  i fthe cost of the unit  excessive poorly  third  a  s i z e and of  an  the household i s  128  standard  The  reguired  income approach  of  affordable  housing  to actual  m o s t common  s t a n d a r d employed  units  30 - 3 5 % o f g r o s s i n c o m e  and  the  benefits  of c a p i t a l  for  ownership  states  exceed  2.5  times  monthly  shelter  and  compared  the  area.  afford  The  and, i n  general  on  fordifferent  i s  the proportion  approach  of households  from  of their  Vacouver, on  income  Victoria),  province-wide  Statistics  Canada  Ottawa-Carleton according  to  varies income  the range  Projections  using  experiencing  affordability  studies  income  attempt  inflation  i n  residents can to  experience  this  and/or  t o update  factors  i n  data  excess  the basis  from  1971 only)  and  standard (from  for  tabulations  by a g e  of  tenure, t o household  the  t a k e n by  affordability  16.7% f o r households e a r n i n g  method, a p p l y p a s t r a t i o s  ratios  25-35%)  (Quebec—data  or special  e a r n i n g $4896 a n d  problems  a  S.H.U. . ( W a t e r l o o ,  Census  used  which of  (commonly r a n g i n g from  ( O t t a w a - C a r l e t c n ) . The a p p r o a c h  $2304 i n 1971 t o 2 5 % f o r t h o s e  household  housing  utilizes  paying  s h e l t e r . . The d a t a h a s been c o l l e c t e d  available  groups  Approach  income/expenditure  percentage  Winnipeg,  should not Affordable  types of  likely  standard  income  us what h o u s i n g  who  (due t o  problems,  The  fixed  terms,  of a unit  The  rental  units  annual income.  f o rdifferent tells  for  An a l t e r n a t i v e  price  household's  comparison  Income/Expenditure  describes  the selling  costs  established  shelter costs..  f o r ownership  are calculated  to actual  affordability b)  the  an  i s 25% c f g r o s s income  accumulation).  that  costs  compares  to  shelter  the  up  i n  1971).  of households  household  head,  projections..  Some  present  component  by  applying  of the cost of  129  living  index  prior  to  applying  figures  to  household  projections.. c)  Budget  Approach The  services to  reguired  merely  size  Planning  basics  Council  funds  can  "affordable" means t h a t food,  cost  estimates  derived,  shelter  households  clothing, health  for  cost.  To  must  forego  of  or  opposed  different by t h e  the  United  and updated  costs  excluding  accomodation,  incomes.  The  housing  other  remaining  determine  pay i n e x c e s s  care,education,  (as  provided  Toronto  and s u b s t i t u t e l o c a l  allocated  of goods and  of households  t o a c t u a l household be  the costs functioning"  of Metropolitan  The b u d g e t s  compared  which  family  t c survive")  Mainland  where a p p r o p r i a t e . then  catelogues  The s t u d i e s e m p l o y  o f t h e Lower  are  approach  " f o r adeguate  "the  and age.  Social Way  budget  the  of this  amount,  reguirements  (e.g.,  recreation).  Commentary: As need, the function  with  methodologies  success  of  the  of the availability The  information  reguired  i f planners  regarding  the  cost  up-to-date  data  on r e n t s  rents  vacant  of  newspapers' very  of  units  when  i s  other  approach  can  housing  largely  be  a  estimated This  useful  t o draw  incomes.  available  i s i n short  provide  sources  and household  advertisements. housing  i s  of  data.  rarely  may  aspects  alternatives  d e t a i l e d data  o f housing  classified  inaccurate  above  income have  for  However,  although  asking  by s u r v e y i n g technigue  supply,  upon  local  may  be  and l a n d l o r d s  130  need  not  advertise.*  ownership upon  c o s t s of purchased  interest  downpayment. only can  once tell  best  at  Households*  time  this  h a s an a f f o r d a b i l i t y purposes  income/expenditure  source  type, household  head.  The C e n s u s  ratios  by income range The  crosstabulations, categories), Although  clearly  greatest  detail,  standard  to  affordability The clearly  be  type  t h e S.H.U. s t u d y problems set  by  provided  by  compared tenure,  (family  provides  Statistics  income  provides  i n  f o r determining  deciding the  the  or non-family)  class  or non-family)  thus  persist  the  effective  condition,  employing  (family  upon  and age o f t h e h o u s e h o l d  type  provides the ratios  household  based  b y t h e Quebec s t u d y  study  i ti s  distribution  I t s most  unit  size  and household  Ottawa-Carleton  problem,  S.H.U. s u r v e y  to dwelling  r e p o r t used  methodology  of detail  The  income,  i s  problems.  upon t h e d e g r e e  ratios  Census  unknown.  approach  employed..  the  as the actual  costs remains  dependant  and the s i z e o f  although  income/expenditure  only.  o f purchase  ten years. . F i n a l l y ,  vs. .housing  household  are  by  incidence of affordability  data  payments  reported  i s , a g a i n , dependant  the  as  to estimate  incomes a r e  forillustrative  The  i t i sdifficult  units  the  u s who m o s t l i k e l y  of households  use  rates  each  used  actual  Similarly,  Canada (three  and t e n u r e .  us  with  what  existence  the  i s the of  an  problem. rationale  presented  behind  by t h e b u d g e t  setting  this  standard  i s most  approach.  The  budget  approach  i See l£^tment_and_Hpuse_Vacan C 1 a s s i f i e d _ A d s _ a s _ I n d i c a t o r , G.V.R.D.,  1978..  131  is  also  problems  most  successfully  of special  alternative  households  best  provide  as  i t i s  approach  good  of  ratios  derived  by  employing  approach  may b e u s e d  metropolitan  6. . S P E C I A L  sensitive  to  i s  not  t o take  into  related  The  budget  t o the local  family of  (e.g.,  due  household size  children  problems  these  size.  which can  t o the supply  findinqs  to  t h e budget  include only  t h e b u d g e t a p p r o a c h . . The r e q u i r e d  t o supplement  what  situation..  of t h e survey) account  to  approach  determining  appropriate  area, date  which  i s t o combine t h e  for  o f t h e number and age  affordability  problem  are applicable  the survey  problems  consideration  very  t o d e t e r m i n i n g t o what e x t e n t  guidelines  s h o u l d be used  Affordability  afordability  of households.  u s e o f t h e S.H.U. d a t a  delineation  determine  and budget approaches.  income/expenditure  approach  to  e x p e r i e n c e an a f f o r d a b i l i t y  income/expenditure  If  groups  requirements  The  can  need  used  be  income  and t o  relate  of low c o s t housinq  i n the  area.  NEED GROUPS  Purpose/Importance:  misnomer are  term  as  the actual  identical  obtain the  The  good  t o those  guality,  implementation  differ families  from  young  need  housing  of  the  suitable,  reguirements  other groups  with  physically  "special  single  i s  needs o f these population  at  and a f f o r d a b l e  i n  the  person  sense  large—i.e.,  the  n e e d s do families,  mentally  and low income  to  However,  these  parent  a  of people  housing.  Single  elderly,  a  groups  needed t o s a t i s f y  of residents..  children,  disabled,  qroups"  and  households,  132  are  often  characterized  published Housing, of  by  the  as  special  U n i t e d Way  of the  A Regional. Perspective,  people  with special  need  housing  groups.  A  Lower M a i n l a n d  M a r . , 1980)  lists  report  ( Access  14  key  to  groups  needs:  These groups o v e r l a p i n m e m b e r s h i p , have a number o f common n e e d s a n d f a c e s i m i l a r barriers to obtaining a d e g u a t e and a f f o r d a b l e h o u s i n g . They a r e s e e n as t h e people who f a c e t h e m o s t s e v e r e h o u s i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n a housing market t h a t i s increasingly difficult for a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n . Each group i s heterogeneous, representing a wide variation i n h o u s i n g needs and d e s i r e s . ( U n i t e d Way o f t h e L o w e r M a i n l a n d , 1 9 8 0 , p. . 3) The extend the and  housing  beyond  requirements  characteristics  u n i t — i t s  services—is  the  particular  number  of  households  within  t c propose  specific  their  of  a special  within  needs.  the  a)  Primary  needs group  income.  unit  may  may  be  itself.  and  the  number  of  and  realities  although the housing  problem  households  small.  Data  Sources  Census can  which  be  used  are characterized  However,  i t  can  not  to by  distinguish their  provide  age, us  with  relates  these  relationship  which  results  in  "special  need  can  discern  the  number o f  elderly,  we single  person,  and  low  the  size  household  which  family,  which  planners  to the  information  although  Details  enable  attuned  severe, the  relatively  medical,  households  group,  often  Location of  to community,  these  actions  be  groups  important.  of  each  need  Methods:  The groups  reguirements  I n some i n s t a n c e s ,  group  Alternative  of the  especially  outline  of  special  proximity or a c c e s s i b i l i t y  social  politicians  of  characteristics,  type  or  sufficient  and  i t i s  groups".  income, households  of  single  this Thus,  parent  separately,  we  133  do n o t know  the  households  of  comparison and  proportion  low  income..  of household  age o f household  the  Census  individuals  or  of  households  records  each  special  social  10 f o r a c o m p r e h e n s i v e Interviews  are  a  list with  single  any  may h a v e c o m p l e t e d  does p r o v i d e a  parent  families)  ratios.  information  Neither regarding  planner  must  often  search  a  s o u r c e s t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f need  group. . Such s o u r c e s  housing  waiting  agencies.  of sources members  source  special  person  disabilities.  cf  of  needs  lists,  by each  special  and  the  and  1 -  study.)  need  groups,  social  services  information  groups.  include  (Refer t o Charts  used  organizations,  good  of  us  service  volunteer  requirements groups  data  data, public  of local  personnel,  (including  t h e housing  single  S.H.U. s t u d y  or mental  primary  assistance  associated  The  S.H.U. g i v e s  within  f o r example,  t o income/expenditure  with physical  range  social  type  head  Therefore, wide  of,  regarding  the  I n some i n s t a n c e s ,  such  research relevant  t o the housing  needs  study. Commentary: Although importance  of  a  number  considering  difficulties  i n obtaining  information  i s especially  current Census  secondary and  inadequate  i n  households  who  is  data  the  particular  adequate  mcnitorinq  useful  to  groups  the  suggest  the  who h a v e  and  severe  although  such  t o p l a n n e r s and p o l i t i c i a n s , topic  are  Housing_Statisti.es  c f housinq  determininq  the  scarce.  are  characteristics  a multiplicity  o n l y one a l t e r n a t i v e  manuals  shelter,  sources on t h i s  C.M.H.C. * s  have  of  of  sorrowfully qroups  problems.  scope  The  of  of There  housing  134  problems  experienced  investigate  a wide  by  special  need  groups, and that  variety of relatively  obscure  i st o  primary  data  sources. Studies households  within  of  the elderly),  The  Waterloo  income  only,  households is  7..  t c  groups  has  citizens  and  i n these  of obtaining  which groups  mother-led the  vs.  number  past  families  change  the total  trends. o f low  based  are f o ra  i n  of  exception  of t h e n e e d s  projections  little  the  the noted  made p r o j e c t i o n s  However,  within  project (with  due t c t h e d i f f i c u l t y  findings.  period  attempt  s p e c i a l need  report  senior  current  rarely  upon 2-year  percentage  household  of  population,  expected..  A S P E C T S OF THE L O C A L  ENVIRONMENT  Purpose/Importance:  to  the  Housing  needs a r e o f t e n  dwelling  unit, but also  considered  to relate not  t o i t s surrounding  (refer  t o Ch. 1.).  A unit  which i s o f  good  and  affordable,  may  nonetheless  be  neighbourhood shopping  areas)  facilities, to  such  makeup and  facilities  libraries)  medical  and  services.  amenities  and  amenities residents  disabled, community  be w i t h i n  walking  Families  schools,  parks,  clearly  (and v i c e  f o r example,  versa).. require  services.  distance  o f shopping areas  children  reguire  i f  facilities, recreational of  proximity  related  support  with  suitable  inappropriate  The i m p o r t a n c e i s  environment  guality,  medical  (e.g.,  are lacking.  the area's  physically  should  and  facilities of  (e.g.,  only  to  The  mentally  proximity  The e l d e r l y and  schools,  the  to  ideally health  parks and  135  recreational  facilities.  Another consider and  i s  aspect of the l o c a l  the  household  ecomonic  should take  important  prospects of the region.  projections,  requirements,  environment  which  this  i n  factor  turn  into  to  Population  affect  housing  account.  Commentary: Only the  local  consider Only  three of the studies  environment. .  the reqions*  t h e Vancouver  particular  economic  to  the  particular  groups  of  facilities  and  city  (Halifax  households  Provision  special  need  8.  HOUSING  REQUIREMENTS  who  require  would  of such  them, would  for  Victoria) forecasts. i n  services.  o f h o u s i n g c h o i c e p l a c e d on  maps o f t h e i r  vs. suburbs)  lacking  and  facilities,  c a r e and r e l a t e d  constraints  information.  areas currently  these  aspects of  o u t l o o k and employment  of health  amenities,  neighbourhoods  planning  of  study examines neiqhbourhood  the location Due  Two  reviewed consider  neighbourhood  location be  (e.g., inner  useful  community  housing  facilities  i n  extend the supply of housing  groups.  Purpose/Importance: The  information  various  headings  provide  an a s s e s s m e n t  greater  the'detail  reguirements unit which  type  discussed  and s i z e  analysis  contained  a b o v e s h o u l d be b r o u g h t  under  the  together  to  c f t h e r e g i o n ' s h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . . The that  (e.g., u n i t s  reguire  and  can  be  reguired  related  renovation  given  to  describe  housing  i n the short  and l o n g  term  to households' by  location,  needs, number  number o f and  by  units  type  of  136  households better.  who  However,  previously can  be  provided  Alternative  are d e r i v e d from  data  a n a l y s e d , t h e amount o f d e t a i l  which  depend  upon  the  data  sources  and  employed.  method  demolitions over  sums  a set period  at the t o t a l  number  expected  household  p l u s an a l l o w a n c e f o r of  new  units  to  be  f o r t h e p e r i o d . .'  This headship  rate  provide  a  method  has  method  for  breakdown  of  current  assumptions  land  for  new  row,  concerning future  income  size  size  and  and  n u m b e r o f new can  Victoria  renter  then  be  has  so t h a t  households  to  type,  density  units  study  income and t e n u r e  low  by  or occupancy p a t t e r n s  apartments) The  projections,  reguired  household  of expected  family,  i n conjunction with the  household  units  of  reguirements. .  S.H.U. r e s u l t s  used  3, V i c t o r i a )  Knowledge  single  been deriving  ratios  (see C h a r t  5, W i n n i p e g ) .  housing  the  Method  to arrive  constructed  estimate  of income a s s i s t a n c e ) ,  requirements  traditional  and  vacancies,  (e.g.,  will  form  Methods:  The  utilizing  and  previously  Traditional  increase  some  as h o u s i n g  collected  methodologies  a)  require  (Chart by  type  used  to  applied  additional can  be  modified to also  take  estimated. b)  Modified Traditional The  into  account  simply c)  added  Frustrated The  Method  traditional poor  quality  to the t o t a l  method units.  may  be  Replacement  reguirements  are  derived i n a).  Demand "frustrated  demand"  technique  (see  Chart  7,  137  Quebec) group  e s t i m a t e s the and  rents  of  public  monthly  units  to  housing  number  of  rent.  be  households  Assumptions  supplied  starts,  future  by  the  to determine  are  income  made c o n c e r n i n g  private the  by  m a r k e t and  expected  the  expected  shortfall  of  units. d)  L e v e l of  Service  Criteria characteristics units.  may  of households  Estimates  to  indicate  e)  Program  housing  the  be  of  eligible  their  number  established for  distribution  of a s s i s t e d  units  to  describe  publically  assisted  i n the f u t u r e  are  used  reguired. .  Options The  data  need  may  Vancouver),  collected be  including  for  related those  the  study  t o program  currently  of  each  options  in  type  of  (see C h a r t  operation  or  6,  those  envisaged. Most from  guality  alleviated be  by  studies  separate  and  suitability  the  construction  solved through  provision  affordability issues,  o f new  of income  as  units  considerations  they  can  alone, but  not may  be best  support.  The [ a f f o r d a b i l i t y ] problem, which affects almost 14,000 households i s o b v i o u s l y t o o l a r g e t o be s o l v e d by t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f units. These problems can only be s o l v e d through bread p o l i c i e s of income r e d i s t r i b u t i o n , o r ... e m p l o y m e n t o f s u c h m e a s u r e s as shelter a l l o w a n c e s , t a x c r e d i t s , and so on. (City of V i c t o r i a , 1977, p..28)  Commentary: The (Halifax, housing  traditional  Winnipeg,  demand  from  method  Waterloo, housing  as  most  Cornwall) need.  commonly does not  Although,  employed  distinguish  when  used  in  138  conjunction  with  interesting  detail  integrated the  with  types  of  regarding  the  new  need  to  However,  house  this  alleviation approach  i s more  region.  s t i l l  housing  u s e f u l as  The  the with  i t does take  be  regarding  Victoria  study,  income l e v e l s  take  into  of  by and  units  problems. .  account  modified  into  not  study  affordability  The  provide  can  proportion  does not  needs.  can  i t  households'  indicating  alone  method  c o l l e c t e d i n the  future households  current  the  construction,  i n the  in  method  of  new  c o n s t r u c t i o n by  does succeed  reguired  rates,  information  housing  disagregating tenure,  headship  the  traditional  account  replacement  reguirements.. However, describing  housing  concentrate approach  the  wholly is  three  reguirements  are  upon  needs.  housing  ccncerned  considerations. . as  i t considers  a  problem  The  affordability in  f o r the  to  q u e s t i o n n a i r e , the  study  level  of  Service  and  that  criteria the  of  alternatives  most  useful  The  primarily  Level  remains  remaining  be  D i r e c t o r of  in  criteria,  difficult  provided. the  they  affordability  method i s w i d e r  i t i s very  service to  as  f r u s t r a t e d demand  with  suitability  to  scope  however  to establish In  response  Metropolitan  Toronto  comments: What p r o p o r t i o n o f t h o s e m e e t i n q e l i g i b i l i t y criteria should be served? ... i t [ i s ] u n l i k e l y t h a t g o o d c r i t e r i a c a n be d e v e l o p e d f o r the level of service provided.  The  Program  approach essence and  to  Options arriving  approach at housing  summarizes each  fits  Households  them with  is  to  specific  of  the  probably  the  requirements.  The  needs d i s c u s s e d  feasible housing  government needs are  most  sensible  approach  within the program  grouped  to  in  report  options. coincide  139  with  9.  possible  government  actions.  TARGETS  Purpose/Importance: Housing actions  the  government  housing  need  Targets  differ  account  which  Targets  to  agency  are  are  act  an  a statement  In the  study  Alternative  Methods:  Requirements The  annual  discussion  of  Halifax  average; tc  the  renovated  the  commitment  of  take  the  into  frame.  publically the  housing  study.  c a p a c i t y of  time  in  the  Most assisted  short  needs  the  term..  study  government  as  agency  study.  as  they  of the  may  be  not  included  determined  region's housing  after  reguirements.  Data and  reguirements  according  number o f  of the  the  itself,  and  housing  of  and  the  alleviate  some i n s t a n c e s , n u m e r i c a l t a r g e t s a r e  publication  a)  aspect  terms  i n that they  a particular  or  to  sections  programs  expected  of the  findings  take  Reguirements  built  important  upon t h e  within  be  guantitative  previous  within  the  in  should  government to act  may  in  Housing  targets outline  units  they  from  specify  agency  described  available  government often  targets  Waterloo  data  Waterloo their  with  of  have  targets.  determined  share  studies  each  eguated  Halifax  their  derived  municipality's  an  target  the region's projected p o p u l a t i o n  growth. . b)  Unit  estimate  Allocation  Method  The  Cornwall  the  number  study  interviewed  of a s s i s t e d  units  C.M.H.C. p e r s o n n e l  towards  which  the  to  federal  140  government  will  contribute  "The m u n i c i p a l i t y housing those  continue  programs  which  of  encourage  pertaining  t o the coming  are  reguired..  c)  Guesstimate The material  clear  year.  Vancouver  study  of s p e c i a l  Target) , and c) s u b s t a n t i a l l y experiencing problems,  for  for federal  programs t o  (e.g., zoning  targets  program  apporovals)  have  estimate  reviewed  targets. .  A  presents three options f o r target City  b)  t o households  reduce  housing  over  policies,  retain  by type  present ("Keep  c u r r e n t unmet h o u s i n g guality,  a several  needs  quantity,  year time  span  Up  ("Keep  AND Up  Up T a r q e t " ) .  Level of Service Tarqets Both  based  upon  eligible  a)  for  criteria, for  especially  Up  needs housing  e)  various  o p p o r t u n i t y " . . The  and Quebec s t u d i e s  ratios  Catch  that  i s not explained.  and C a t c h  affordability  the  approach  write-downs,  to existing  and  this  contained i n the reports to  those  in  contributions  setting--a)respond  of  recommends  of government,  In order  Ottawa-Carleton  The  study  of housing  used  municipal land  methodology  d) K e e p Op  also  municipal  administration,  the  has  feasible,  levels  a wide range  study  The  i t s participation  senior  Vancouver  be  subsidies.  and  assisted  Commentary:  the Alberta the  and M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o  number  assisted  of  housing  households given  b) t h e n u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s  housing  who  tarqets  a r e and w i l l  current who  be  eligibility  will  given changes i n e l i g i b i l i t y  are  be  eligible  criteria.  141  A problem that  there  is  w i t h use  not  of  a clear  reguirements  distinction  private  sector involvement  i n the  method  does  sufficient  not  municipality's The of  role unit  government  upon  a  in  derive targets.  public  presents the i t  information  can  more e f f e c t i v e l y  to  levels  in  the  of  three  more c l o s e l y  based  upon  households  The  and  housing.  This the  The  be  government  upon  senior  levels  local  but  upon  the  housing  needs  study  of  local  need  local  level.  This  assessment at the  used  such  reflect  need,  i f i t  is  that they  the  based  degree  communicated  may  of  adjust  housing  unit need  community.  relate  are..  public  These t a r g e t s a r e not  been conducted  t c more c l o s e l y  The  The  i s  with respect to  relies  accurate  as  allocations  of  detail  local  funds..  most has  of  available,  senior  targets  made b e t w e e n  provision  method  understanding of  as  housing.  allocation  to  clear  availability itself  provide  data  some who  to the  should  "Keep  targets  are  difficult criteria, debated  Up  the  the  Up"  to the  housing  assumptions  publically  and  are  to assess  tell  us  what t h e s e  criteria planner  and  to  politicians.  Each  i s of  actions. criteria  substantiate.  " L e v e l of S e r v i c e "  chosen. to  each  t h e number  government  difficult  targets  targets  studies..  local  underlying the  with  deriving  the  criteria  does not  Catch as  of  from  t a r g e t s chosen  explicit for  or  benefit  method  and  methods t o  findings  standards  ••guesstimate" Thus the  remaining  Although  establish criteria  i t  i s  appropriate  chosen  can  be  142  10..  COST OF A C T I N G  ANALYSIS  Purpose/Importance: The targets  cost  presented  factor  of  housing  They  needs  are  study  provision  of publically the  reviewed  a  as  concerning  and  not  housing  after  they  of  the  not  publication  based  are local  to arrive at  upon  i nthe  both  the  Some o f t h e s t u d i e s  cost  implication  of target setting, and  the  participation  the venture. the  important  of  politicians  housing  and  recommendations  government's  included  most  component  enable  assisted  recommendations  discussion  these  of  may b e  of the region's  requirements.  Alternative a)  often  or  r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s . . As i n t h e c a s e determined  the  necessary  the local  benefits  have  are  whether  decisions  costs  upon  i n t h e study  determining  implemented.  acting  Methods:  r e Recommendations Although  it  comments  the  report.  i n f i l l  t h e Winnipeg  upon The  growth,  which  do  those  which  recommendations  expenditures in  percentage  b)  r e Targets The  overcoming  (including  entail  do  targets,  additional  entail i s  as w e l l  costs.  i n terms  as a breakdown  a r e grouped  of  facilitating as  to  those  c o s t s t o t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y and  additional  described  within  encouragement  c u r r e n t problems,  and m o n i t o r i n g housing)  not  recommendation  does net present  t h e cost of recommendations contained  development,  future  study  Each  specific  o f o p e r a t i n g and c a p i t a l  by d e p a r t m e n t  and  program,  terms.  Vancouver,  Quebec, O t t a w a - C a r l e t o n ,  A l b e r t a , and  143  Metropolitan the  municipalities  based  upon  scenarios senior  future  to  according  walk-up,  or  developed  supplement  and  of  cost  The  construction,  computer 100%  The  model  70%  cost  and  non-recoverable. Toronto  Alberta  study  design,  of  (row  fee,  study  under  b)  has three  100%  rent-geared-to-income  land  housing,  legal  Toronto  costs  studies includes  costs  unit types  estimate  purchase  disaggregated  vs.  rent-geared-to-income,  program, and c)  land  are  Metropolitan  to  Each i s  includes  factors—i.e.,  to l o c a t i o n , three  to  p o s s i b l e changes i n  include  costs,  prices.  overhead.  scenarios—a)  upon  are recoverable  unit cost  high-rise),  a  based  costs  set.  study  A l b e r t a , and M e t r o p o l i t a n  variety  assembly  rent  which  of the  the targets  The V a n c o u v e r  staffing  those  and  upon  targets  and  example  financing,  estimates  programs. . Estimates  Ottawa-Carleton,  greatest  provide  acting  for  calculate the  of  experience.  costs,  according  studies  past  government  holding  The  Toronto  rent  and  30%  supplement.  Commentary: Each more s p e c i f i c  of  these  methods  recommendations  and  report  a r e , t h e more d e t a i l e d c o s t  III.  Summary The  summarized  material  i n Figure  presented  5 (overleaf).  i s very targets estimates  in  this  useful.  Clearly the  presented  i n  the  can be.  chapter  i s briefly  144  COMMENTARY  CONTEXT ISSUE • 1.  Objectives  -allow f o r greatest p r a c t i c a l p o t e n t i a l  2. R e s e a r c h Models  - h y b r i d a p p r o a c h i s most u s e f u l  3- V a l u e  - i n v o l v e wide range o f i n t e r e s t groups  Judgements  4. Format CONTENT 1.  -clear writing style essential  ISSUE  Demographic  and g r a p h i c s  PREFERRED METHODOLOGIES -cohort survival/headship -Development Trends  Analysis  2. Q u a n t i t y H o u s i n g S t o c k  -CMHC H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s -Census -Municipal Permits  3- Q u a l i t y H o u s i n g S t o c k  -windshield  4. S u i t a b i l i t y  -Census - M a t c h i n g Technique  5- A f f o r d a b i l i t y  -Budget Approach -Income/Expenditure  6. S p e c i a l Need Groups  -primary data sources -interviews  7- A s p e c t s o f t h e L o c a l  -map l o c a t i o n o f community and a m e n i t i e s -employment f o r e c a s t s  8. H o u s i n g Requirements  -Program O p t i o n s Approach - L e v e l of S e r v i c e - F r u s t r a t e d Demand  9. T a r g e t s  -Keep Up and C a t c h Up -Level of Service Targets  Environment  10.  Cost of A c t i n g  survey  Approach  facilities  -by department a n d program, p e r c e n t a g e terms -example u n i t c o s t p r i c e s -cost scenarios  Analysis  Figure  r a t e method  6:-  Framework Summary.  145  CHAPTER  5: C O N C L U S I O N S — W H E N  I S A 1QCAL HOUSING NEEDS STUDY  SUCCESSFUL?  Chapter local  housing  1 outlined  needs study.  1.  To d e f i n e h o u s i n g  2.  To p r o v i d e d a t a  3.  To e n s u r e  4.  To  five They  purposes  f o r conducting  a  were:  need  concerning  t h e need  relevance to local conditions  meet  the  growing  responsibilities  of l o c a l  government i n housing 5. The  To f o s t e r  material  action  to alleviate  presented  i n  framework  f o r conducting  in  Chapter  4, t e l l s  be  achieved.  that  local  suggestions alleviate  of this  success it  of  housing  needs  needs s t u d i e s p r e s e n t e d  four of these  studies  i n Chapter  conducted  4 will  i n fact  according t o the foster  action t o  need. as t o whether  i s ultimately  or not actions w i l l  up t o t h e p o l i t i c i a n s .  author,  t h a t an a p p r o p r i a t e c r i t e r i o n  a local  housing  t o what e x t e n t  needs s t u d y ,  should  i s the  to assess the  i s t h e degree t o  information t o permit resources  I t  proceed  the  which  politician  be a l l o c a t e d  to  to  alleviate  need. we  politicians actions  the  true  provides sufficient  decide  and  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however, i t i s not n e c e s s a r i l y  decision  view  chapters  may  housing  the study  housing  need.  purposes  presented  from  local  following  u s how t h e f i r s t  housing  The  the  housing  can would  conceive  either  to allocate  delay  resources  of  a  number  or reject  of  the  to alleviate  instances study's  housing  when  proposed  need, due t o  146  insufficient 1.,  We  do n o t u n d e r s t a n d  -Thus  2.. our  readable  We  do  i t  related  -Thus  now,  The  explain  important and  we w i l l  this to  targets  wait  i t i s important  i n  with  f  the  respect  special  the  needs,  methodologies, the  i t  study  to include  i f the voters  be  the study  which  are  jurisdiction. study  before  relate  housing  term..  actions  cost  to  acting.  projections,  proposed  include  specific  will  estimates  cost. of  and t a r g e t s .  i s important may  include  i n the short  much t h e s e to  information.  i n your  u n t i l then  and t a r g e t s ,  i ti s important  d o n o t know  -Thus  to  and p r o j e c t i o n s  recommendations We  of  figures are correct.  w h a t t o do w i t h  d o n o t k n e w how  -Thus  need i n  environment.  t o t h e powers o f t h e l o c a l  requirements,  7.  estimates  and the c o n s t r a i n t s , u n d e r l y i n g  i s  As t h e t a r g e t s frcra  housing  presented.  recommendations  We  concerning  include  the study's  assumptions,  -Thus  6.  data  i n the area--i.e.  of the local  We d o n o t know  years  to  need  i ti s important  figures  clear  v  do n o t b e l i e v e  the  in a  or region.  of housing  aspects  -Thus  5.  the study  guality, suitability, affordability,  and  4..  sufficient  i ti s important  kinds  We  to present  format.  not have  municipality  to  the study.  i t i s important  and  -Thus  3.  information.  used  care about  t o have input  as a  vehicle  to  housing from  issues.  the public.  solicit  public  10  147  views  through  {including 8..  This  should  we  a c t when i t  regional  important  level,  and/or  decide  ( e . g . , "We  through  In  t o minimize  process  Only  free  (e.g.,  market  directors, interesting  "yes".  and/or  study  the  at a  politicians  be  study's  "We  perceived  findings,  or  resources  to  housing  their  should  m e c h a n i s m s by t h e p r i v a t e of rejection  too  however our  contrary  believe  as  be  sector"). .  of the  study's  throughout  the  study. (see  Appendix  or accomplishments  director  of  The r e a s o n s  research  as they  provided,  to involve politicians  guestionnaire  planning  unconditional  the  not?  actions to allocate  the likelihood  with the results  the  may  area--why  t o co-ordinate the p r o j e c t with  l i e elsewhere"),  of conducting  satisfied  conduct  with your  i ti s important  The  to  to reject  position  provided  proposals,  results  market  municipalities  T h e s e a c t i o n s may  agree  priorities  order  housing  i n f o r m a t i o n has been  t h e need.  philosophical  i t s  municipalities.  nonetheless  funding  net i n c l u d e the  neighbouring  Once t h i s  costly  of  media) .  i s  neighbouring  to a l l e v i a t e  dissemination  use of l o c a l  r e p o r t does  -Thus  may  wide  Winnipeg cited  directors  highlight  A) a s k e d of  the  responded  by t h e a u t h o r s ,  of the  other  a number o f t h e p o i n t s  you  study?". with  an  planning  studies above.  Council and Administrator not followed through number o f k e y r e c e m m e n d a t i o n s . (Cornwall) No. Did not set local Department d i d not develop guestion with l o c a l planners the r e g i o n ] . Major d i f f i c u l t obtaining i n i t i a l political main issues of the study. n o t p e r c e i v e d t o be politica  "Were  on a  targets [as] Planning any c o n s e n s u s o v e r t h i s [ o f municipalities within y w i t h t h i s s t u d y was n o t identification with the A f f o r d a b i l i t y , e t c . , were lly significant i n the  are  148  C.R.D. a t t h e t i m e - - m a i n i n t e r e s t s o f t h e C.R.D. i n 1977 w e r e i d e n t i f i e d t o b e i n economic development (safeguarding jobs), p r o t e c t i n g t h e environment, and minimizing the cost of l o c a l services. Another major difficulty was t h a t c a u s e d by i n a d e g u a t e l i a s o n w i t h l o c a l planners. (Victoria) Generally, but the Provincial government philosophically rejects any cost-shared action, t h e r e f o r e n o a c t i o n d e s p i t e w i l l i n g n e s s by t h e F e d e r a l government and C i t y . (Vancouver) No, v e r y l i t t l e h a s b e e n a c c o m p l i s h e d . T h e r e p o r t was r e j e c t e d by t h e L i b e r a l g o v e r n m e n t a n d upon a change in government, t h e P.Q. h a s n o t f o l l o w e d t h r o u g h o n d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f housing programs. (Quebec) Y e s , b u t n o t e n o u g h e x p l a n a t i o n c f why waiting lists were low d e s p i t e statistics s h o w i n g t h a t demand i s high. ... P e r h a p s m o r e e m p h a s i s s h o u l d b e p l a c e d on the behavioural issues such as a t t i t u d e s o f people towards p u b l i c housing, etc. (Alberta) No. Inability to establish criteria f o r level of service t o be p r o v i d e d [ a s ] f i n a n c i a l commitment o f v a r i o u s l e v e l s of governemtn difficult t o estimate. (Metropolitan Toronto) The do  guestionnaire you have  considering of  a l s o asked  any recommendations undertaking  the responses  clearly  "Looking or  a housing relate  back  advice  on y o u r  experience,  f o r other  needs s t u d y ? "  Again,  t o t h e p o i n t s mentioned  1. . Be r e a l i s t i c w i t h r e s p e c t the p r o j e c t i o n s used. 2.. Be careful t o consider trends as opposed to s t r i c t (Cornwall)  agencies a number above.  t o housing  t a r g e t s and  household population  development parameters..  1. T r y t o examine p h y s i c a l aspects of program takeup in addition to traditional statistical analysis. 2. Try t o involve a s many a c t o r s i n t h e s t u d y a s p o s s i b l e , i . e . Housing Authorities, Civil Servants, Developers, Lenders, e t c . 3. Don't l e t the consultant do a l l t h e w o r k , otherwise staff at the local l e v e l w i l l not learn by the experience. 4.. Involve t h e p o l i t i c i a n s a t a much e a r l i e r d a t e . (Victoria) 1. 2. but  H i r e c o n s u l t a n t s who c a n p r o v i d e c r e d i b i l i t y . I n v o l v e t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r and t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c , a t d i f f e r e n t times and a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s .  149  3. Keep the (Winnipeg)  media i n f o r m e d  as  to  what  is  going  on.  1. Make sure "cost" o f study does not approach or exceed [ t o t a l housing budget] funding a v a i l a b l e ! 2.. S e t up d a t a b a s e w h i c h c a n be maintained/updated and d o n ' t h a v e t o r e c r e a t e a few y e a r s later. 3.. Plan on draft format with ample input from "experts" ( i n c l u d i n g those i n need). 4. D e v e l o p i n g a commonly a c c e p t e d s t a t e m e n t o f n a t u r e and m a g n i t u d e of need i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t f o u n d a t i o n f o r p o l i c y work and d i s c u s s i o n c f o p t i o n s . Aim s h o u l d be t o f o c u s d i s c u s s i o n on o p t i o n s , n o t d a t a v a l i d i t y . 5. Development o f p o l i c y b y i n - h o u s e s t a f f may take longer than through consultants but does increase agency understanding and skills. Tradeoff benefit/cost. (Vancouver) D o n ' t do i t . A r e p o r t j u s t g e t s not please and is difficult d o n ' t j u s t need s t a t i s t i c s , but (Quebec)  done. I t may o r may t o be u n d e r s t o o d . We on-going knowledge..  Joint s t u d i e s while d i f f i c u l t t o o r c h e s t r a t e , are f a r more v a l u a b l e than those done by one agency. I consider t h i s s t u d y u n i q u e b e c a u s e a) t h r e e l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t w e r e i n v o l v e d , b) s t a f f a t t h e l o c a l level assisted in t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e r e s u l t s and n o t j u s t i n the p r o v i s i o n of data. Thus, a l l s t a f f learned a g r e a t d e a l from t h e e x e r c i s e . (Alberta) Housing needs studies must be a composite of demographic-income c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the population. Good d e m o g r a p h i c income p r o f i l e o f e x i s t i n g population essential. It i s e s s e n t i a l t o have a computer model to simulate cost of alternative targets and i t is u n l i k e l y t h a t g o o d c r i t e r i a c a n be d e v e l o p e d f o r l e v e l o f s e r v i c e t o be p r o v i d e d . Being able to simulate the cost of different t a r g e t s permits the p o l i t i c i a n to decide what programs and targets are affordable.. (Metropolitan Toronto) It  is  interesting  comment upon t h e may the  have  study--a  important If  i n the  the  note  importance longer  consultant,  i s to  be  that there  that  of  term.  The  choice  staff,  regards  conducted be  a number o f  considering  local  consideration with  study  important  to  close  by  liason  as  one  to  these  what e f f e c t t o who agency  future  the  will or  local  study  conduct  many--is  possible  consultants, with  responses  i t  staff.  an  actions. appears If  not,  150  upon of  comepletion  the  of the  issues involved.  results  of  regard.  (Six of  replied  that there are  of  the  the  of  study  The  little  opportunity  i s also  the  remains  an  seven  for  important  repondants  plans to  monitoring  the  consideration in  this  to  monitor  understanding  the  and  guestionnaire  update  the  findings  study.) At  the  work, t h e r e  the  author the  ten  need..  i s not  (including, of  a  wide  for  housing  a  of  function  the  implement  of  a  the  capability  of  studies'  process  explained of  variety  level the  of  undertaken),  factors  perceptions  public  concern  government  and  about  housing  cf  local  findings,  that  effectiveness  environment,  groups,  the  was  degree  wide  political  interest  issues,  planning  i t  with respect to a l l e v i a t i n g  f o r example, the range  to  housing  i s  thesis,  a b l e t o e v a l u a t e the  s t u d i e s reviewed  This  agency  outset of t h i s  the  which  type we  of  have  incomplete information.. However, assess  the  reviewed.  success Rather,  information  failure  the  not  purpose the to  the  objective  of  of  the  Canadian  studies  was  to provide  housing  planners  and  planning  and  the  completing  thesis  lccal  to achieving a l l five  ten  methodological  I t i s hoped t h a t  planners t o conduct view  or  necessary  study i n Canada. chapter  was  concerning  considerations  this  i t  housing of the  the  as  a  this, thesis  a local material  whole,  housing  aid  outlined  in  housing  needs s t u d i e s i n Canada purposes  needs  presented  will  to  above.  with  a  151  BIBLIOGRAPHY  American I n s t i t u t e of Planners a n d t h e U.S. Department Housing and Urban Development. Regional Housinq: A T e c h n i c a l G u i d e . . W a s h i n g t o n : A.I.P./H.U.D., 1972. .  of  Armitage, A. S o c i a l W e l f a r e in..Canada: I d e a l s a n d R e a l i t i e s . T o r o n t o : M c C l e l l a n d a n d S t e w a r t L t d . , 1975. . Audain, Michael. £lan_Canada  1  3  "Transform Housing (1973): 91-111.  Into  a Social  Service."  B e n n i s , W. G.; B e n n e , K.D. ; C h i n , R.C.; C o r e y , K.E.; e d s . P l a n n i n g o f Change. New York: Holt, R i n e h a r t and Winston, 1976.  The  Berthoud, Richard. The_Disadyantaqes o f ^ I n e q u a l i t y : . A Study o f Social Deprivation. , London, Eng.: Macdonald and J a n e ' s , 1976. Bradshaw, J . 640-643.  "The Concept  of Social  Need."  New S o c i e t y  (1972):  Birch, D. , et.al. & g g r i c a _ s _ H o u s i n g Needs:. 1970 t o 1 9 8 0 . Cambridge, Mass.: Joint C e n t e r f o r Urban S t u d i e s o f M.I.T. a n d H a r v a r d , 1973. C a n a d i a n C o u n c i l on S o c i a l Social.Housing Policy.  Development. A Review o f Canadian O t t a w a : C.C.S.D., 1 9 7 7 .  Beyond S h e l t e r : _ A , S t u d y , o f _.H_A.-financed IlderlXs. O t t a w a : C.C.S.D., 1 9 7 3 . Research.  Housing^Requirements: A Review O t t a w a : C.C.S.D., 1 9 7 2 .  Housinq  of Recent  Capital Regional District. Housing P h a s e s I a n d I I . 19 7 6 - 7 7 . .  i n Metropolitan  Carter, Novia, ed. Social Indicators: O t t a w a : C.C.S.D., 1 9 7 2 .  Proceedings of a  for the Canadian  Victoria, Seminar.  C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r t i c n . . 1974,Survey o f Housing U n i t s : Background I n f o r m a t i o n a n d S t a t i s t i c a l N o t e s . O t t a w a : C.M.H.C, 1974. 1.974^ S..H. U. : C r o s s - T a b u l a t i o n s o f D w e l l i n g Households^ O t t a w a : C.M.H.C, 1 9 7 4 . •  N i I _ , P i ._Op.^ator_.s_HaMbooJs  4L  Ottawa:  U n i t s and  C.M.H.C, 1976.  152  P r o j e c t i n g Long-term Housing Beguirements and A s s e s s i n g C u r r e n t H o u s i n g N e e d s : The C a n a d i a n , , , E x p e r i e n c e . O t t a w a : C.M.H.C, 1978.. Ottawa:  Seminar on t h e M e t h o d o l o g y C.M.H.C, 1970.  of Housing  City  of Cornwall.  H o u s i n g , P o l i c y (Phase I I ) .  City  of Edmonton. Housing F u t u r e F e b . , 1976.  City  of Halifax.  City  of Toronto, L i v i n g ftpopi- > A p p r o a c h Land, B a n k i n g f o r t h e C i t y of. T o r o n t o .  Housing.  New D i r e c t i o n s  .. 1980..  OnTarget: 1 978.  City  o f Vancouver..  City  of Winnipeg. Inner  City  Feb.,1978.  i n Edmonton: D i r e c t i o n s  for^the  Dec. , 1 9 7 5 . ftr  •  Projections.  i n Housing.  t o Home B a n k i n g a n d D e c , 1973.  197 7.  Program_Review  1977 a n d H o u s i n g  Understanding Vancouver's Housing  Strategy t o  Housing.  1979.  in__Winnipeg, 1979.  H o u s i n g . . 1979.  Clayton Research Associates; f o r Alberta Housing and P u b l i c W o r k s , C.M.H.C., C i t i e s o f C a l g a r y a n d E d m o n t o n . 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Submitted for Presentation A.I.P. 57th Annual Conference, 1975. Metropolitan Assisted  Toronto Housing.  Planning 19 77.  Department.  Low  Income R e n t a l  M o r o n e y , R.M. " N e e d s A s s e s s m e n t f o r Human S e r v i c e s " i n M a n a g i n g Human S e r v i c e s , , E d i t e d by W.L. Anderson, et, a l . Washington, D.C.: International City Management A s s o c i a t i o n , 1977. . M u r i e , A.; N i n e r , P.; H o u s i n g System. L t d . , 1976.~  and Watson, London, Enq.:  C. Housinq Georqe A l l e n  P o l i c y and and Unwin  N a t i o n a l C o m m i s s i o n on Urban Problems. B u i l d i n g the Cit_y_ New Y o r k , N.Y.: Praeger Publishers, 1969. Northern Municipal Council. Northern Saskatchewan S u r v e y R e p o r t : 1976- 1977. 1 977.  American  Housinq  Oberlander, H.P., ed. Canada:_An Urban Agenda. C o m m u n i t y P l a n n i n q P r e s s a n d A.S.P.O. Press, 1976. Pennance, Urban  G., Land  et. a l . Economics  H o u s i n q : I t ' s Y o u r Move. . D i v i s i o n , U . B . C , 1976.  Polansky, N.A., ed. S o c i a l Work R e s e a r c h . o f C h i c a q o P r e s s , 1960. .  Chicaqo:  The  Needs Ottawa:  Vancouver: University  155  President's Committee on Home. Washington: U.S. 1969.  Urban Housing.. A Decent Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e ,  .  P y n o o s , J . ; S c h a f e r , E. ; a n d H a r t m a n , C.W.; eds... Housing A m e r i c a . . C h i c a g o : A l d i n e P u b l i s h i n g Co., 1973..  Urban  Raymond, G.M. "Simulation vs..Reality" i n Urban P l a n n i n g i n Transition. Edited by E. E r b e r . . New York, N.Y.: American I n s t i t u t e of P l a n n e r s , 1 9 7 0 . . Reeb,  D.J., and K i r k , J . T . , e d s . Housinq N.Y.: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1973.  Regional Municipality Carleton. 19 7 6 .  of  Reqional  of Waterloo.  Municipality  i97e__J__31..  Ottawa-Carleton.  Poor.  New  Housinq  Housinq  Needs:  in  An  M.G. 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H e a t h and Co., 1977  the Case  Making. .  158  Was the study i n i t i a t e d t o d e a l w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r l y s e r i o u s housing problem i n the r e g i o n ? I f yes : a ) What was the problem?  b)  Was the r e p o r t completed and presented a t a time when t h i s problem remained as important an i s s u e ? That i s was the r e p o r t t i m e l y ?  D i d you have a c c e s s t o s i m i l a r r e s e a r c h conducted i n Canada on housing need, or to any manuals on the s u b j e c t , to use as g u i d e l i n e s i n p r e p a r i n g the r e p o r t ? I f so, can you l i s t other agencies or r e p o r t s which you found t o be of a s s i s t a n c e .  7. a) Dp_you r e c a l l what kinds of problems you may have f a c e d w h i l e c o n d u c t i n g the r e s e a r c h ? Do you remember any t r a d e o f f s you may have made c o n c e r n i n g the degree of d e t a i l of the a n a l y s i s due t o f i n a n c i a l , time, or other c o n s t r a i n t s ? Issue  Problems, C o n s t r a i n t s , L i m i t a t i o n s , T r a d e o f f s  1. Data a v a i l a b i l i t y 2. Geographic scope (e.g. housing market area vs. p o l i t i c a l jurisdiction) 3. P r o j e c t i o n s (e.g. s h o r t v s . l o n g term) 4. D e f i n i t i o n terms  of  5. Terms of r e r e r e n c e  6. Research g u i d e l i n e s  7. Target s e t t i n g  8.  Content (e.g. c h o i c e of need groups)  9.  T6T  b)  Please c i r c l e your three most serious problems.  159  8.  Much of the i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the a f f o r d a b i l i t y of housing has been d e r i v e d from the C.M.H.C. and S t a t i s t i c s Canada 1974 Survey of Housing U n i t s . I f t h i s study i s n o t repeated i n the near f u t u r e , w i l l t h i s pose s e r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s on f u t u r e housing needs r e s e a r c h i n the r e g i o n ?  9.  To whom was the study d i s t r i b u t e d ? in-house use only Politicians Development I n t e r e s t s R e a l E s t a t e Board(s) N o n - P r o f i t Groups C i t i z e n s Groups P r e s s and Media Other  10.  Was the r e s e a r c h c o n t r o v e r s i a l ?  What r e a c t i o n d i d the r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s r e c e i v e from:  1ffs § • C a)  6* £ | ° 8: -a  o.  v Comments  Politicians! Municipal Council(s) M e t r o p o l i t a n Govt.  b) Development I n t e r e s t s c) Real Estate Board(s) d) Non-Prof i t  Groups  e) C i t i z e n s Groups f) 6) h)  11.  D i d the r e s e a r c h i t s e l f r e s u l t i n any governmental p o l i c i e s and/or programs which a i d e d i n the a l l e v i a t i o n of housing need i n your community? I f so, what were they?  160  12.  What e l s e do you f e e l the study a) Increased p o l i t i c i a n s ' yes  accomplished?  awareness of housing need no  b) Generated i n t e r e s t i n the housing s i t u a t i o n i n the m u n i c i p a l i t y or r e g i o n yes  __|  no  __  c ) Other accomplishments i  13.  Are you s a t i s f i e d w i t h the r e s u l t s or accomplishments study?  of the  If noti In what r e s p e c t s were you disappointed?  14.  Why do you t h i n k the r e s u l t s d i d n o t meet your e x p e c t a t i o n s ?  Although i t may as y e t be e a r l y t o s t a t e , do you f e e l the h o u s i n g t a r g e t s ( and the recommendations ( have proven t o be r e a l i s t i c and/or a c h i e v a b l e ?  that ) )  Are the t a r g e t s u s e f u l g u i d e l i n e s ?  15.  Are there plans t o monitor and update s t u d y ? I f so, how o f t e n ?  the f i n d i n g s of the  161  16.  17.  I f today you had the o p p o r t u n i t y to conduct another housing needs study, would you approach the r e s e a r c h any d i f f e r e n t l y ? That i s , i n r e t r o s p e c t , would you modify the r e s e a r c h methodology employed i n the study? I f so, how?  Looking back on your e x p e r i e n c e , do you have any recommendations or a d v i c e f o r other a g e n c i e s c o n s i d e r i n g u n d e r t a k i n g a h o u s i n g needs study?  Thank you.  162 Appendix  M e t h o d o l o g y f o r F a c t o r i n g Up (Metropolitan Toronto, 1977.  B:  FACTORING  UP  HOUSEHOLD  The  factoring  and  marital  and  in  the  increase  in  The  methodology  each  income  by  19 75  after  the  incremental  those  receiving  income  determined were  then  and  t e r i s t i c s size of  of  The 1.  of  the  and  p o l i t a n  a l l  unemployed  latter  more  a  group,  further  the  characteristics price  index  Toronto,  detailed of  These  by  status,  1970  percentage to  1975  of  the  percentage  in  and  heads  to  provide  group,  marital  of  charac-  and  the  income  by  distribution income  tenure.  steps:  the  increase  status  households  1975  size  the  were  head  marital  in  deducted.  analysis  by  to  heads  age  the  incomes  number  groups  to  the  1971  been  applied  to  percentage  in  (c)  marital  household  ratio  Derive  and  the  household  the  growth  had  two  and  percentage  increase  the  and  heads  following  from  up  ranges.  breakdown  of  the  weekly  household  benefits  the  was  the  (a)  distributed  group  household  A  age  involved  the  age  was  employment  tenure  by  determine  Derive  of  (b)  reapportioned  1975 income total  to  of. average  factored  1971 d i s t r i b u t i o n  heads  methodology  by  of  of  ranges.  household  to  the  p r o f i l e  = consumer  2.  to  income  household  ranges  given  sensitive  group  recipients.  assistance  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  comprehensive status  heads  age  characteristics,  1975 and  number  s o c i a l  added  income  reapportionment  household  within  was  division,  therefore,  to  The  1975 by  characteristics  adopted,  range.  head  assistance  heads  1975  1971 to  industrial  s o c i a l  predicted  The  from  associated  ho u s e h o l d  19 71 TO  household  growth  s a l a r i e s and  the  incomes of  the  unemployment  of  of  status  difference wages  up  INCOMES  Incomes pp. 10.1-10.4)  growth  for  of  Canada  Metropolitan  growth  average  for  the and  Toronto  Canada.  weekly  Metro-  163 wages 1970  and to  salaries  1975,  change  in  and  the  and  Prepare  summary  each  total  age  male  Distribute household of  the  female  the  total  male  industrial  for  median  i n f l a t i o n  according  division  the  selected  based  on  values of  the  in  Apply  Determine between  19 7 1 a n d  and  according  sex  segment  of  the  above. age  increase 19 7 5 , to  in  the  female  of  in  ea  1971  d i s t r i -  and  apportion  median 2  to  household  three  the  numbe  sub-  values  the  obtain  the  chosen  group  the  heads  category  on  and  the  number  distribute  in  which the  1971  f a l l  study median  proportion  marital  income  profile  for  the  Calculate  general  population.  status,  within  step  status  these  in  marital  the  i n f l a t i o n  the  within  values.  marital  within  and  group  of  f a l l i n g  ranges.  group,  to  inflated  each  categories,  categories  group,  impact  in  heads  distribution  male  incomes  (4)  to  female  their  of  step  (1)  due  status  income  ranges  households  category  to  determined  and  in  factor.  total  income  1971 number  group  and  income  Determine age  and  age  1975  each  ratio  categories.  corresponding  the  as  total  and  that  factors  the  division  by  values.  to  marital  total  households  group  six  status  industrial  applies  19 7 1 h o u s e h o l d  and  category  it  as  a  marital  each  index  incomes  this  Within  the  increase  by  Canada  reflect  on  for  for  to  percentage  Apportion By  division  increase  price  table  group  major  bution  of  rising  heads  census.  the  based  this  i n f l a t i o n  for  adjust  Toronto  Express  a  industrial  consumer  Metropolitan above.  by  status  ranges.  of by  unemployed age  pattern  group of  this  in  164 Distribute and  relate this  household group  profile  to obtain status  distribute  the Family  and June  the family  Determine  status  caseload  the incremental  s u b s e q u e n t l y by age group  mothers, f i r s t  age g r o u p and m a r i t a l  This  status  provides  status  who  i . e . status  fathers citizen  status  and  was  o f h o u s e h o l d heads  receive  status  d e t e r m i n e d by a n a l y s i n g  available  f r o m "the f a m i l y  Determine  t h e 1975 t o t a l  group and m a r i t a l  projections. unemployed  Deduct  derived  the family  family  by  benefits.  benefits  the rates  of  assistance  i n step program.  and m a r i t a l  total  the incremental  (7) a n d t h e i n c r e m e n t a l  program d e r i v e d  s t a t u s , minus  h e a d s who  benefit  i n step  the incremental  a r e (a) u n e m p l o y e d  program.  by  from the demographic  from t h i s  i n step  (10)  assistance  number o f h o u s e h o l d h e a d s  status  benefits  obtained  and  number number  (10) t o  t h e number o f 1975 h o u s e h o l d h e a d s by age  household  (d)  range c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the household  above  family  (c) s e n i o r  the profile  by age group and m a r i t a l  produce  by m a r i t a l  (b) d e p e n d e n t  heads  on  by  h o u s e h o l d heads by age g r o u p and m a r i t a l  group and m a r i t a l  The income  age  caseload  heads by age group and m a r i t a l  and d i s a b l e d  status.  growth  t h e components o f growth,  and  blind  1971  characteristics of the  family  household  (7)  caseload.  (a)  age  benefit  i n step  i n June  growth o f family b e n e f i t  studying-separately  by  obtained  Benefits  the distribution  incremental  by age  household heads  ranges.  benefits  of  o f household head.  income  1975 t o o b t a i n  status  rate  t h e unemployed  t h e unemployed  the appropriate  Compare  f u r t h e r by m a r i t a l  to the formation  age g r o u p a n d m a r i t a l  into  in  heads  population  and m a r i t a l  Further by  this  group  growth o f (b) i n t h e  165  Distribute by  age  into their  Add  1975  household  status obtained  income  numbers a c c o r d i n g  to  r a n g e s by the  heads  in step  (12)  apportioning  proportion determined  by  (5).  to  this  distribution  step  (13)  the  provide  the age  Distribute status  the  tenant  the  19 71  on  marital  of  and  (11)  to  a l l household  status.  h e a d s by  c a t e g o r i e s under  characteristics  (8)  family  based  age  group and  $15,000 i n t o on  an  marital owner  a n a l y s i s of  pattern.  Distribute step  i n steps  age  obtained  u n e m p l o y e d and  Income P r o f i l e  household  heads by  income ranges  obtained  group and  i n income  and  based  1975  household  incremental  households  heads by  of  s t a t u s and  benefit  in  number o f  marital  appropriate  group, m a r i t a l in  modified  g r o u p and  the  step  the  f u r t h e r the  (15) an  above  into  a n a l y s i s of  tenant size the  household  heads  of  households  1971  pattern.  obtained  

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