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Fertility and marriage patterns in Canada, 1851-1971 Gee, Ellen Margaret Thomas 1978

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FERTILITY AND MARRIAGE PATTERNS IN CANADA: 1851-1971 by ELLEN MARGARET THOMAS GEE B.A., U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1971 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF • THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department of Anthropology and Sociology We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the req u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA June, 1978 (c^) E l l e n Margaret Thomas Gee, 1978 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumb i a , I a g ree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s tudy . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i thou t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f A n t h r o p o l o g y and S o c i o l o g y The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumbia 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a V6T 1WS Date May 1, 1978 ABSTRACT This research i s concerned w i t h r e c o n s t r u c t i n g and anal y z i n g the h i s t o r y of f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i n Canada from 1851 to 1971. The Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n , viewed from a four stage framework, i s examined w i t h i n the context of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory, w i t h the aims of d e l i n e a t i n g both the common and the unique features of the Canadian experience and of a s c e r t a i n i n g the t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i n d i n g s concerning Canadian t r a n s i t i o n . Canadian census and v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s data are used s o l e l y . C o r r e c t i o n s to the e a r l y b i r t h data are made, u t i l i z i n g the s u r v i v a l rate method w i t h adjustments, based on s t a b l e population models, made f o r the under-enumeration of population under age 5. A l s o , census data on population d i s t r i b u t i o n by age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s by age are adjusted, by i n t e r p o l a t i o n , i n instances when such data are presented i n too h i g h l y aggregated form to allow f o r d e s i r e d analyses. The o v e r a l l trend of f e r t i l i t y change i n Canada d i s p l a y s a p a t t e r n i n which e a r l y , i . e . , commencing at the middle of the nineteenth Century, d e c l i n e s are r e g i s t e r e d , followed by a p e r i o d of p l a t e a u , and then a p e r i o d of f l u c t u a t i o n u n t i l the decade of . the 1960s when r a p i d d e c l i n e occurs. By a n a l y z i n g the separate components op e r a t i n g to a f f e c t t h i s o v e r a l l trend, i t i s found t h a t m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y p l a ys the major r o l e , one of s u b s t a n t i a l and c o n s i s t e n t d e c l i n e . The d e v i a t i o n s from d e c l i n e i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y t h a t occur r e s u l t from the operation of a second component, female n u p t i a l i t y . Together, the v a r i a b l e s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y f u n c t i o n to determine the p a r t i c u l a r nature of the f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i n Canada, the unique features of which are e a r l y , l a r g e -scale d e c l i n e followed by a p e r i o d of constancy. These two v a r i a b l e s are examined s e p a r a t e l y , and i n d e t a i l , i n an e f f o r t to a s c e r t a i n p o s s i b l e causal i n f l u e n c e s operating to determine l e v e l and trend. M a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i s ' found to be a f f e c t e d by d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s over time. M a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s , at e a r l y p e r i o d s , are c l o s e l y r e l a t e d w i t h c u l t u r a l v a r i a b l e s , i . e . , e t h n i c i t y and r e l i g i o n . Over time, these v a r i a b l e s l o s e t h e i r importance, replaced by economic-related v a r i a b l e s . The heightened o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y i n the post - World War II p e r i o d i s not accompanied by a general or s i g n i f i c a n t increase i n completed f a m i l y s i z e ; r a t h e r , t i m i n g d i f f e r e n c e s are l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e . C e r t a i n sub-populations of women i n Canada, however, are c h a r a c t e r i z e d by n o t i c e a b l e increases i n completed f a m i l y s i z e . The women so c h a r a c t e r i z e d are women who, p r i o r t o the "baby boom," d i s p l a y r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , i . e . , women of B r i t i s h e t h n i c o r i g i n , of P r o t e s t a n t r e l i g i o n , and of high l e v e l s of i v e d u c a t i o n a l attainment. The examination of female n u p t i a l i t y i n Canada rev e a l s a t r a n s i t i o n from the low l e v e l s t h a t h i s t o r i c a l l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d western European populations to r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l s . The course of n u p t i a l i t y change i n Canada i s found to be a f f e c t e d by mi g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s . Whereas i n the past, n u p t i a l i t y i n s t r o n g l y a f f e c t e d by the v a r i a b l e of e t h n i c i t y , major convergence has occurred throughout the course of t h i s century. A number of t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s r e s u l t from t h i s research, and can be d i v i d e d i n t o two types. There are, f i r s t , i m p l i c a t i o n s r e l a t i n g to the Canadian t r a n s i t i o n i t s e l f . Much of the uniqueness of the Canadian experience surrounds the issues of c u l t u r e and migration p a t t e r n s . As such, there was not "one" f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i n Canada, but s e v e r a l , stemming from d i f f e r e n t i a l combinations of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y behaviour t h a t v a r i o u s groups brought w i t h them to Canada. Second, the f i n d i n g s here r e l a t e to a number of debates e x i s t i n g w i t h i n demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i i TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF TABLES v i LIST OF GRAPHS x ACKNOWLEDGEMENT x i CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION 1 I I . THE CANADIAN DATA 18 I I I . FOUR STAGES OF FERTILITY IN CANADA 44 IV. COMPONENTS OF FERTILITY CHANGE 105 V. MARRIAGE PATTERNS 165 VI. MARITAL FERTILITY 228 V I I . ASPECTS OF THE CANADIAN FERTILITY TRANSITION. . 280 V I I I . CONCLUSION 300 BIBLIOGRAPHY 321 APPENDICES 3 32 V LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page I Reported and Expected Male and Female Po p u l a t i o n , aged 0-4, and Percent D i f f e r e n c e . Canada, 1851-1911 27 I I Reported and Estimated B i r t h s . Canada, 1851-1941 30 I I I Sex Ratios at B i r t h . Canada, 1851-1911 . . . . 32 IV A l t e r n a t i v e Canadian Crude B i r t h Rate S e r i e s . 1851-1911 32 V Estimated P r o v i n c i a l Crude B i r t h Rates. 1851-1911 37 VI Estimates of P r o v i n c i a l B i r t h Under-enumeration. 1851, 1861, 1871, 1881, and 1901 38 VII Crude B i r t h Rates and General F e r t i l i t y Rates: L e v e l and Percent Change. Canada, 1851-1971 45 V I I I Percent of Population Urban. Canada, 1851-1891 54 IX Foreign-Born Population of Canada. 1851-1891 58 X Percent Foreign-Born, by Province. 1871-1891 59 XI Foreign-Born Population of Canada. 1891-1921 71 XII Percent of Population Urban. Canada, 1891-1921 77 X I I I Occupational D i s t r i b u t i o n . Canada, 1891-1921 79 v i v i i TABLE Page XIV T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates f o r Selected Sub-Populations of Canada. 1921 81 XV Percent of Population Urban. Canada, 1921-1961 85 XVI A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y Rates. Canada, 1921-1961 86 XVII Mean Age at C h i l d b e a r i n g . Canada, 1921-1961 . 89 XVIII Aspects of Average C h i l d b e a r i n g Schedule. Canada, 1951-1961 90 XIX T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates f o r Selected Sub-Populations of Canada. 1921-1951 92 XX A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y Rates. Canada, 1961-1971 98 XXI Aspects of Average C h i l d b e a r i n g Schedule. Canada, 1961-1971 99 XXII Observed Values of the Components of the Crude B i r t h Rate and the General F e r t i l i t y Rate. Canada, 1851-1971 I l l XXIII(a) Standardized Crude B i r t h Rates. Canada, 1851-1971 113 XXIII(b) Standardized General F e r t i l i t y Rates. Canada, 1851-1971 113 XXIV P r o v i n c i a l Crude B i r t h Rates. 1851-1971 . . . 130 XXV Percent of T o t a l Decline i n Crude B i r t h Rate Occurring i n S p e c i f i e d Periods. Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick 133 XXVI R e l a t i o n s h i p between Value of Crude B i r t h Rate i n 19 21 and Extent of Change between 1921 and 1961. Canadian Provinces 135 XXVII(a) Percent Change i n Standardized Crude B i r t h Rates, by F e r t i l i t y P e r iods. Canadian Provinces 15 0 v i i i TABLE Page XXVII(b) Percent Change i n Standardized General F e r t i l i t y Rates, by F e r t i l i t y Periods. Canadian Provinces 15 2 XXVIII Percent Single at Ages 20-24, 25-29, and 45-49 and Average Age at ( F i r s t ) Marriage, f o r Males and Females. Canada, 1851-1971 168 XXIX Percent of Marriages Occurring at Given Ages, Males and Females. Canada, 1921-1971 170 XXX Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24, 25-29, and 45-49, f o r Males and Females. Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Canada, C i r c a 1900 176 XXXI Sex Rat i o s . Canada, 1851-1971 186 XXXII A c t u a l and Expected Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24, Males and Females. Canada, 1851-1971 189 XXXIII Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24 f o r Males and Females and Sex Ratio s . Canada and Western Provinces, 1881, 1891, 1911 194 XXXIV Percent of Married Women aged 45-54 Marrying f o r the F i r s t Time under 2 5 Years, by E t h n i c i t y , E d ucational Attainment, Earnings of Head, and Place of Residence. Canada, 1941 202 XXXV Percent of Married Women aged 45-54 Marrying f o r the F i r s t Time under 25 Years, C r o s s - C l a s s i f i e d by Educ a t i o n a l Attainment, E t h n i c i t y , and Earnings of Head. Canada, 1941 204 XXXVI Percent S i n g l e at Ages 2 0-24, 25-29, and 45-49 f o r Males and Females. Rural and Urban Areas. Canada, 1931-1971 209 XXXVII Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24, 25-29, and 45-49 f o r Males and Females by Ethn i c Groups. Canada, 1931-1961 213 i x TABLE Page XXXVIII Average Age at ( F i r s t ) Marriage f o r Males and Females. Provinces, 1891-1971 221 XXXIX A g e - S p e c i f i c M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates. Canada, 1921-1971 237 XL C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Age of Women. Canada, 19 41, 1961, 1971 242 XLI Percent of Ever-Married Women by Number of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born and Age of Women. Canada, 1941, 1961, 1971 244 XLII C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Age at Marriage and Age of Women. Canada, 1941, 1961, 1971 251 XLI I I Observed and Expected Values of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Age of Women. Canada. 1961, 1971 255 XLIV C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Place of Residence and Age of Woman. Canada, 1941, 1961, 1971 258 XLV Observed and Expected Values of C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Place of Residence and Age of Woman. Canada, 19 71 '. 260 XLVI C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Le v e l of Income and Age of Woman. Canada, 1941, 1961, 1971 263 XLVII M a r i t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates by E t h n i c i t y of Mother. Canada, 1931, 1941, 1951 265 XLVIII C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by E t h n i c i t y and Age of Woman. Canada, 1941, 1961, 1971 266 XLIX C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by R e l i g i o n and Age of Woman, Canada. 1941, 1961, 1971 270 L C h i l d r e n Ever-Born per Ever-Married Woman, by Le v e l of Educational Attainment and Age of Woman. Canada, 1941, 1961, 1971 . . 272 LIST OF GRAPHS GRAPH Page 1 Crude B i r t h Rates and General F e r t i l i t y Rates. Canada, 1851-1971 46 x ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Th i s r e s e a r c h was i n p a r t funded by The Canada C o u n c i l , D o c t o r a l F e l l o w s h i p s W732834 and W744669. I would l i k e to thank a number of i n d i v i d u a l s f o r a s s i s t a n c e t h a t has been given me. Dr. Yunshik Chang deserves a s p e c i a l thank-you, both as teacher and f r i e n d . i I t was he who f i r s t i n t r o d u c e d me to demography i n 19 68, and has guided me throughout my graduate s c h o o l c a r e e r , being v a r i o u s l y g e n t l e and f i r m a t j.ust the r i g h t times. I would a l s o l i k e t o thank the other members of my a d v i s o r y committee: Dr. George Gray, Dr. R. G. Matson, Dr. Kenneth Stod d a r t and Dr. Roderick Wong. Thanks a l s o go to Dr. Braxton A l f r e d and Dr. Donald L a v i s , who served on my committee i n the past. Mr. Frank F l y n n , of the U.B.C. S t a t i s t i c a l Centre, a l s o a s s i s t e d me. I would l i k e to express my g r a t i t u d e to P a t t y B e a t t i e - G u e n t e r and Lin d a Bergman Healey, both of the U n i v e r s i t y o f V i c t o r i a , f o r t h e i r academic and moral support i n the l a s t two years. A l s o , I am g r a t e f u l t o Mrs. Barbara Smith f o r her speed and p a t i e n c e i n t y p i n g t h i s t h e s i s . Very s p e c i a l thanks are due my husband, Gordie, f o r h i s l o v e , support, p a t i e n c e , and acceptance of l o n e l y hours f o r what must have seemed a very long time. x i CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Demographic t r a n s i t i o n , as the term i m p l i e s , i s concerned w i t h changes over time i n p o p u l a t i o n - r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s . One such v a r i a b l e i s f e r t i l i t y , " * " which has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r p o p u l a t i o n growth and age composition which, i n t u r n , are consequential i n r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h economic, p o l i t i c a l , and s o c i a l f a c t o r s . The r e l a t i o n s h i p of f e r t i l i t y and f e r t i l i t y change w i t h a wide range of demographic and non-demographic f a c t o r s has r e s u l t e d i n the r e l e g a t i o n of the study of f e r t i l i t y to an important place i n both demographic and s o c i o l o g i c a l spheres. The study of f e r t i l i t y can be, and has been, approached i n various ways, i n c l u d i n g o r i e n t a t i o n s which are p r i m a r i l y d e s c r i p t i v e , a n a l y t i c a l , explanatory, or p r e d i c t i v e ; dynamic, focussing upon change over time, or s t a t i c , where temporal patterns are of l i t t l e importance; macro, concentrating upon the s t r u c t u r a l aspects of f e r t i l i t y , or micro, fo c u s s i n g upon i n d i v i d u a l behaviour. This research aims at d e s c r i b i n g , a n a l y z i n g , and, to a l e s s e r extent, e x p l a i n i n g f e r t i l i t y change i n Canadian s o c i e t y over a time p e r i o d spanning the years from 1851 to 2 1971. Thus, i t can be s a i d t h a t the major concern here i s to r e c o n s t r u c t and analyze the h i s t o r y of f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i n Canada. Both pragmatic and t h e o r e t i c a l concerns d i c t a t e the relevance of the above-stated aim. From the pragmatic p o i n t of view, an understanding of the s t r u c t u r e o f , and the processes i n v o l v e d i n , f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n a given s o c i e t y , l i k e Canada, can be h e l p f u l i n d e l i n e a t i n g the steps necessary to implement d e c l i n e i n s o c i e t i e s t h a t have not commenced to a t t a i n , or are s t i l l i n the process of ac h i e v i n g , sustained low f e r t i l i t y . Although one would h e s i t a t e t o d i r e c t l y apply the f i n d i n g s of the f e r t i l i t y experience of one population to another ( C a l d w e l l , 1976: 336; O k e d i j i , 1974:12), i t can be argued that c e r t a i n aspects may be of relevance, g e n e r a l i z a b l e to other contexts. A second p r a c t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n of the research here i s r e l a t e d , not to i n t e r n a t i o n a l concerns, but to the home base. I t can be argued that the pau c i t y of research 2 concernxng Canadian s o c i e t y both r e f l e c t s , and exacerbates, a s o c i e t y fraught w i t h problems of n a t i o n a l i d e n t i t y . Canadian-based research can serve to ameliorate t h i s s i t u a t i o n through p r o v i d i n g an understanding of, and a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r , the Canadian experience. The research aim, as s t a t e d , places t h i s study w i t h i n the province of t h e o r e t i c a l concerns known g e n e r a l l y , and l o o s e l y , as "demographic t r a n s i t i o n . " As 3 Demeny (1968:502) s t a t e s , the c e n t r a l concern of modern demography i s demographic t r a n s i t i o n , change from high to 3 low v i t a l r a t e s , both as d e s c r i p t i o n and as theory. D e s c r i p t i v e l y , the aims are to a s c e r t a i n the t i m i n g , p l a c e , and speed of f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n from p r e - d e c l i n e l e v e l s . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , i t seeks to e x p l a i n the described path of 4 change. Although a consensus seems to e x i s t concerning what aspects of f e r t i l i t y change l i e w i t h i n the domain of d e s c r i p t i o n and, hence, e x p l a n a t i o n , considerable disagreement e x i s t s as to the content of explan a t i o n . In i t s broadest f o r m u l a t i o n , demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory r e l a t e s f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n w i t h socioeconomic development or modernization. The t r a n s i t i o n from a t r a d i t i o n a l a g r a r i a n s o c i e t y to a modern urban one i s seen as the cause of n a t a l i t y d e c l i n e (Beaver, 1975:8), as modernization operates to a l t e r the s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l elements t h a t f a c i l i t a t e the production of large numbers of 5 c h i l d r e n . However, the theory does not s p e c i f y any p r e c i s e e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l of s o c i o -economic development and l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y . E f f o r t s to e s t a b l i s h an e m p i r i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l of modernization and tim i n g of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n the European case, f o r example, have met w i t h f a i l u r e (van de Walle and Knodel, 196 7). What demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory l a c k s i n p r e c i s i o n , though, i s countered by i t s undeniable correctness i n i d e n t i f y i n g a general r e l a t i o n s h i p 4 between f e r t i l i t y change and modernization (Coale, 1973:64). The general a p p l i c a b i l i t y of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory, i n conjunction w i t h i t s lack of p r e c i s i o n , has given r i s e to a number of t h e o r e t i c a l debates concerning the mechanisms t h a t u n d e r l i e the t r a n s i t i o n to modern l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y . One debate centres on the r e l a t i v e importance of c u l t u r a l as opposed to socioeconomic f a c t o r s i n the determination of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Some statements of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory a t t r i b u t e a minor r o l e to c u l t u r a l values and t r a d i t i o n i n the course of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , viewing them as r e f l e c t i o n s of the s o c i a l and economic s t r u c t u r e r a t h e r than independent causal f a c t o r s (Burch, 1975:130; Davis, 1963). S i m i l a r l y , viewpoints that s t r e s s economic r a t i o n a l i t y as the d r i v i n g force behind human behaviour, and t h a t see f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e as a r e s u l t of changes i n the c o n s t i t u t i o n of r a t i o n a l behaviour t h a t accompany socioeconomic development (Ryder, 1967:32), are ass i g n i n g c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s an unimportant r o l e i n f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . On the other hand, some recent statements of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory emphasize the r o l e of c u l t u r e as an independent causal i n f l u e n c e i n determining the course of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Perhaps the most e x p l i c i t a s s e r t i o n s along t h i s l i n e are those of Coale (1973:62-7) who i n d i c a t e s t h a t the f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n Europe that cannot be explained by 5 recorded socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s can be tra c e d to t r a d i t i o n s and h a b i t s of mind a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e t h n i c background, language, and r e l i g i o n . Other researchers provide i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s emphasizing c u l t u r a l v a r i a b l e s , r e l i g i o n and e t h n i c i t y i n the case of Demeny (1968:520-1) and r e l i g i o n i n the case of L i v i - B a c c i (1971:129), i n a f f e c t i n g e a r l y d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y i n the absence of s i g n i f i c a n t modernization, i . e . , i n underdeveloped p o r t i o n s of Europe. A l s o , i t can be argued that data i n d i c a t i n g 7 large d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y i n pre-modern Europe (Coale, 1969:9-10) suggest the a c t i o n of c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s i n determining f e r t i l i t y l e v e l . Another debated issue i s that concerning the r e l a t i v e importance of co n t r a c e p t i v e technology, as d i s t i n c t from reproductive m o t i v a t i o n , i n determining g f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Advocates of the t e c h n o l o g i c a l school argue t h a t i n c r e a s i n g a v a i l a b i l i t y , and knowledge, of e f f e c t i v e c o ntraceptive methods i s a prime determinant of reduced f e r t i l i t y . For example, Sweezy (1975:6) argues t h a t high f e r t i l i t y i n t h i r d world c o u n t r i e s i s unwanted, r e s u l t i n g from the i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y of fa m i l y planning f a c i l i t i e s . S i m i l a r l y , Westoff (1973:19) i n t e r p r e t s recent d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y i n the United States as the r e s u l t of improvements and innovations i n co n t r a c e p t i v e technology t h a t have made p o s s i b l e the c o n t r o l of unwanted b i r t h s . On the other side i s the m o t i v a t i o n a l school, which views 6 reduced f e r t i l i t y as a f u n c t i o n of changing motivations concerning reproduction t h a t accompany s o c i a l and economic development. This view has adherents amongst students of f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i n both t h i r d world populations (Demeny, 1975; O k e d i j i , 1974) and developed s o c i e t i e s (Blake and Das Gupta, 1975). While the m o t i v a t i o n a l school does not deny the importance of c o n t r a c e p t i v e technology as a f a c t o r i n reducing f e r t i l i t y , i t views i t s r o l e as a 9 f a c i l i t a t i n g one r a t h e r than a causal one. Another t h e o r e t i c a l debate concerns the process by which the behaviour of f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l i s introduced and spread throughout a p o p u l a t i o n . The debate concerning i n t r o d u c t i o n was brought to the foreground by Carlsson (1966) who, on the b a s i s of the a n a l y s i s of Swedish data p r i m a r i l y , argues against the i m p l i c i t assumption t h a t he a t t r i b u t e s to demographic t r a n s i t i o n t h e o r i s t s , t h a t sustained f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e commences a f t e r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of a new or i n n o v a t i v e type of behaviour, f a m i l y l i m i t a t i o n . For C a r l s s o n , d e l i b e r a t e c o n t r o l of f e r t i l i t y i s not a new s o c i a l i n v e n t i o n ; d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y represents the adjustment of an a l r e a d y - e s t a b l i s h e d behaviour to new forces concomitant w i t h i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . Knodel (1977), on the other hand, argues t h a t f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n r e s u l t s from the spread of the i n n o v a t i v e behaviour of f a m i l y l i m i t a t i o n . Arguments concerning the spread of f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l 7 behaviour d i f f e r i n the extent t h a t d i f f u s i o n i s seen as operative and what elements are viewed as important i n the d i f f u s i o n process. In regard to the second i s s u e , sometimes the spread of inf o r m a t i o n about c o n t r a c e p t i v e p r a c t i c e s i s str e s s e d (Carlsson, 1966:150); sometimes the emphasis i s upon ideas, a s p i r a t i o n s and a t t i t u d e s (Demeny, 1968:520). In regard to importance of d i f f u s i o n , some t h e o r i s t s doubt i t s relevance and the s i g n i f i c a n c e of l e a d i n g and lagging sectors i n f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n (Carlsson, 1966:152); others place great emphasis on the d i f f u s i o n process, s t r e s s i n g spread of f e r t i l i t y l i m i t a t i o n behaviour from leading sectors to lagging sectors (Coale, 1973:67; Demeny, 1968: 519; Knodel, 1977:247). A new set of debates has emerged i n demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory f o l l o w i n g the i n c o r p o r a t i o n of marriage as an important v a r i a b l e , i n lar g e p a r t the r e s u l t of Hajnal's (1965) a n a l y s i s of marriage patterns i n Europe. Hajnal i d e n t i f i e d an h i s t o r i c a l p a t t e r n of marriage behaviour, unique to western Europe u n t i l around 1940 when i t s t a r t e d to break down, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by high average ages at marriage and high p r o p o r t i o n s never married, which operated to d e f l a t e f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s i n Europe. This f i n d i n g had both t h e o r e t i c a l and methodological i m p l i c a t i o n s . M e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y , researchers came to c l e a r l y separate m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y and to measure t h e i r independent e f f e c t s upon f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and trend. 8 T h e o r e t i c a l l y , European f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n came to be viewed from the perspe c t i v e of a two-stage framework. The f i r s t stage, known as Malthusian t r a n s i t i o n , witnessed the development of the unique marriage p a t t e r n t h a t served to lower f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s ; the second stage, known as non-Malthusian t r a n s i t i o n , saw the advent of c o n t r o l of f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage, the re d u c t i o n i n l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y (Coale, 1973:57). One debate concerns the nature of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o n t r o l of f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage, on the one hand, and proportions married, on the other. Coale (19 69: 16) has argued t h a t a causal r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s such that the achievement of a high degree of c o n t r o l of f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage l e d d i r e c t l y to an increase i n pr o p o r t i o n s married. Van de Walle (1968:499), on the other hand, views the r e l a t i o n s h i p as one i n which d e c l i n e s i n marriage age n e c e s s i t a t e d a change i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y behaviour. Thus, demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory contains disagreements concerning the i s s u e s of the r e l a t i v e importance of c u l t u r a l as opposed to s o c i a l and economic f a c t o r s , the r e l a t i v e r o l e of contraceptive technology as opposed to m o t i v a t i o n a l f a c t o r s , the i n t r o d u c t i o n and spread of f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l , and the r e l a t i o n s h i p between m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y . However, a consensus does e x i s t t h a t modernization operates to determine f e r t i l i t y change. The disagreements seem to revolve around 9 which aspects of the modernization process are viewed as e s p e c i a l l y important. In p a r t , disagreements stem from the v a r i a b l e f i n d i n g s t h a t have come to l i g h t as a r e s u l t of the study of f e r t i l i t y change i n n a t i o n a l and sub-national populations. As Coale (1969:19) i n d i c a t e s , f i n d i n g s are so v a r i e d , i n d i c a t i v e of the great complexity i n v o l v e d i n the process of f e r t i l i t y change, th a t only an o p t i m i s t would expect to f i n d an easy g e n e r a l i z a t i o n t h a t can account f o r f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . In l i g h t of Coale's statement, one cannot expect t h a t the a n a l y s i s of Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n w i l l lead to a d e f i n i t i v e statement about the nature of the process of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n general or to a r e s o l u t i o n of the issues t h a t are debated w i t h i n demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory. However, the study of Canadian f e r t i l i t y change should prove i n s t r u c t i v e i n d e l i n e a t i n g the kinds of f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n one context and, hence, provide some statement concerning the processes at work i n f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . In f a c t , Canadian s o c i e t y provides us w i t h a demographic l a b o r a t o r y t h a t , due to c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s unique to Canada, allows f o r an examination of the r o l e of c e r t a i n f a c t o r s i n f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e t h a t i s not p o s s i b l e i n other populations. Although a l l s o c i e t i e s have d i s t i n c t i v e f e atures i n t h e i r h i s t o r i e s t h a t account, to some degree, f o r uniqueness i n the p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , Canadian 10 s o c i e t y i n i t s h i s t o r i c a l development has c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s so s i n g u l a r i n nature t h a t i t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t the course of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e w i l l r e f l e c t t h a t d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s . The d i s t i n c t i v e feature of Canadian s o c i e t y i n i t s h i s t o r i c a l development, t h a t makes p o s s i b l e the examination of s p e c i a l f a c t o r s i n t r a n s i t i o n and leads t o the a n t i c i p a t i o n of uniqueness i n f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n , i s the r o l e played by, and the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f , immigration i n the Canadian experience. Canada, as a European-derived p o p u l a t i o n , has been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by successive waves of immigration. The waves per se are not of p a r t i c u l a r importance here, but one c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the wave-like movement i s . The p a t t e r n of settlement i n Canada was one i n which d i f f e r e n t e t h n i c groups tended to enter at s p e c i f i c periods of time, p a r t i a l l y a r e s u l t of s p e c i f i c "push" f a c t o r s operating i n d i f f e r e n t p a r t s of Europe'''''" at d i f f e r e n t times and p a r t i a l l y as a r e s u l t of Canadian immigration p o l i c y . I n i t i a l European p e n e t r a t i o n was French, o c c u r r i n g i n the 16 0 0s, w i t h settlement l a r g e l y concentrated i n the c e n t r a l region of Canada and aimed at the establishment of a "new" France. The B r i t i s h were the second European group to s e t t l e w i t h i n Canada, ga i n i n g c o n t r o l over the French areas f o l l o w i n g the Seven Years' War. I n i t i a l i n - m i g r a t i o n of B r i t i s h - o r i g i n peoples i n t o Canada was, i n the main, v i a two d i s t i n c t routes; from the United S t a t e s , United Empire 11 L o y a l i s t s entered Canada f o l l o w i n g the American Rev o l u t i o n , and from Great B r i t a i n , d i r e c t movement, i n s i g n i f i c a n t numbers, occurred at the end of the Napoleonic Wars. A l s o , the B r i t i s h - o r i g i n p o p u l a t i o n i n Canada was augmented by an i n f l u x of I r i s h escaping famine c o n d i t i o n s i n the 1840s. In-migration of B r i t i s h - o r i g i n p o p ulation was so great t h a t by the middle of the nineteenth Century, the s i z e of t h a t p o p u l a t i o n i n Canada exceeded t h a t of the e a r l i e r - a r r i v i n g French p o p u l a t i o n . However, the d i f f e r e n t geographical l o c a t i o n s of the two population groups w i t h i n Canada, the French i n Quebec and the B r i t i s h i n the Maritime provinces and Ontario, meant t h a t the French m a j o r i t y i n Quebec was never threatened n u m e r i c a l l y . 12 The i n - m i g r a t i o n of peoples from western Europe, p a r t i c u l a r l y Germany, began i n the nineteenth Century, p r i m a r i l y a f t e r the Napoleonic e r a , a response to p o p u l a t i o n pressures i n the home areas. The immigration of eastern Europeans occurred l a t e r , i n the e a r l y years of the present century, was concentrated i n time, and was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by l o c a l i z a t i o n i n area of. settlement. The e a r l y decades of the twentieth Century saw a change i n immigration p o l i c y such t h a t p r e v i o u s l y non-preferred European people, i . e . , persons other than western Europeans, were allowed r e l a t i v e l y easy entrance i n t o Canada. This p o l i c y change r e f l e c t e d a Canadian concern w i t h p o p u l a t i n g the western, r u r a l p a r t s of the country w i t h a g r i c u l t u r a l i s t s , i n conjunction w i t h a lessened propensity f o r western European r u r a l populations to emigrate, given a r a p i d i n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n t h a t allowed f o r t h e i r absorption i n t o i n d u s t r i a l employment at home. The r e s u l t was a l a r g e - s c a l e i n -migration of people from eastern Europe, where surplus r u r a l populations could not so e a s i l y be absorbed, i n t o western Canada, p a r t i c u l a r l y the p r a i r i e provinces. In more recent years, the Canadian population has continued to be augmented by i n - m i g r a t i o n , w i t h immigrants l a r g e l y drawn from the pop u l a t i o n pools t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e d 13 e a r l i e r settlement, but w i t h increased proportions of southern Europeans and non-Europeans. However, what i s important here i s t h a t e a r l i e r settlement was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by what one could c a l l d i s c r e t e n e s s , i . e . , d i f f e r e n t e t h n i c groups tended to enter Canada at d i f f e r e n t periods of time and to s e t t l e i n g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d i s t i n c t regions. The s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h i s feature l i e s i n i t s d i c t a t i n g a Canadian s o c i e t y t h a t was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by no common t r a d i t i o n a l p a t t e r n i n terms of f e r t i l i t y and f e r t i l i t y - r e l a t e d behaviour. Rather, a number of pa t t e r n s e x i s t e d , t r a n s p l a n t e d from home environments d i f f e r e n t from one another i n c u l t u r a l t r a d i t i o n and i n extent of s o c i a l and economic modernization at time of departure. I t seems l i k e l y t h a t d i s c r e t e n e s s i n t i m i n g of i n - m i g r a t i o n and i n areas of settlement would operate to perpetuate, to some degree, lack of commonality i n behavioural p a t t e r n s . 13 Demographic t r a n s i t i o n i s u s u a l l y conceived as i n v o l v i n g a change from "the" t r a d i t i o n a l to "the" modern, i n terms of p a t t e r n s of behaviour that are consequential f o r f e r t i l i t y l e v e l . However, such a c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n i s i n a p p l i c a b l e i n the Canadian case. Thus, the study of Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n lends i t s e l f to an examination of f a c t o r s t h a t do not present themselves i n other p o p u l a t i o n s . I t i s expected that the a n a l y s i s of these f a c t o r s w i l l , to some degree, account f o r uniqueness i n the trend of Canadian f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e and w i l l have some relevance i n r e l a t i o n to the i s s u e s debated w i t h i n demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory. In regard to t h i s l a s t p o i n t , the r o l e played by c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s i n the trend of f e r t i l i t y change can be analyzed i n a somewhat novel way i n the Canadian case, given the e t h n i c a l l y - r e l a t e d p a t t e r n of m i g r a t i o n . Given these i n t r o d u c t o r y comments, i t i s necessary to d e l i n e a t e i n more d e t a i l what i s to f o l l o w . To repeat, the major concern here i s a r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and a n a l y s i s of the h i s t o r y of Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . As such, the focus i s p r i m a r i l y upon demographic a n a l y s i s r a t h e r than s o c i o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s . This i s not to say that s o c i o -l o g i c a l v a r i a b l e s , concepts, and c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are ignored, but r a t h e r t h a t t h e i r i n c l u s i o n i s somewhat secondary to the main task at hand. As an a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y trends r e q u i r e s , by 14 d e f i n i t i o n , i n f o r m a t i o n that extends back i n t o time and as the q u a l i t y of c o l l e c t e d data d e t e r i o r a t e s markedly as one moves back i n t o h i s t o r y , a necessary f i r s t step i s the c o r r e c t i o n of f a u l t y data. The f o l l o w i n g chapter o u t l i n e s the general problems i n c u r r e d w i t h the e a r l i e r Canadian data, and discusses the c o r r e c t i o n s made to the b i r t h data f o r the p e r i o d up to 19 41 and the adjustments made to data concerning age-sex d i s t r i b u t i o n and m a r i t a l s t a t u s . Chapter I I I examines the l e v e l s and trends of Canadian f e r t i l i t y , employing a four stage framework, w i t h i n the context of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory. Each stage i s discussed s e p a r a t e l y , f o c u s s i n g upon the f e r t i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each p e r i o d and p o s s i b l e a s s o c i a t e d f a c t o r s . Having described the path of f e r t i l i t y change i n Canada, Chapter IV sets out to more f u l l y examine the determining elements. O v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y i s d i v i d e d i n t o i t s c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s , m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , non-marital f e r t i l i t y , female n u p t i a l i t y , and age-sex compositional f a c t o r s , i n order t o assess the extent t h a t change i n each component pla y s i n the Canadian t r a n s i t i o n over the e n t i r e p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , and i n each separate stage of f e r t i l i t y . As the component a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s the overwhelming importance of the v a r i a b l e s of female n u p t i a l i t y and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i n the Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n , Chapters V a n d V I , r e s p e c t i v e l y , a r e d e v o t e d t o t h e s e t o p i c s s e p a r a t e l y . C h a p t e r V I I , t h e l a s t s u b s t a n t i v e c h a p t e r , p r e s e n t s a f r a m e w o r k t h a t s e e m s t o p r o v e u s e f u l i n t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e C a n a d i a n e x p e r i e n c e i n f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . T h e f o c u s i s u p o n t h e u n i q u e f e a t u r e s o f f e r t i l i t y c h a n g e i n C a n a d a , v i e w e d f r o m a p e r s p e c t i v e t h a t r e l a t e s t o g e t h e r t h r e e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f C a n a d i a n s o c i e t y : c u l t u r a l d i v e r s i t y , a p a t t e r n o f i m m i g r a t i o n r e l a t e d t o e t h n i c i t y , a n d t h e l a c k o f t r a d i t i o n a l p a t t e r n s o f d e m o g r a p h i c b e h a v i o u r . 16 Footnotes The term " f e r t i l i t y " i s used to denote the a c t u a l reproductive performance of a woman or group of women. I t should be d i s t i n g u i s h e d from "f e c u n d i t y , " which denotes the p h y s i o l o g i c a l c a p a c i t y to conceive and bear c h i l d r e n (Thompson and Lewis, 1965:240). The only l a r g e - s c a l e contemporary research concerning f e r t i l i t y at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l i s the Hen r i p i n study, a 1961 Census Monograph (1972). This can be contrasted w i t h the United S t a t e s , f o r example, where n a t i o n a l f e r t i l i t y s t u d i e s are numerous. 'Demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory, i n the broadest sense, i s concerned w i t h both f e r t i l i t y change and m o r t a l i t y change and t h e i r i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s . However, recent research has focussed p r i m a r i l y upon the f e r t i l i t y aspect, i n pa r t because f e r t i l i t y e x e r t s the greater i n f l u e n c e on futu r e p o p u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s and because f e r t i l i t y has been found to be more s e n s i t i v e to s o c i a l i n f l u e n c e s . This research s i m i l a r l y concentrates on the f e r t i l i t y component, p a r t i a l l y f o r the above reasons and, a l s o , because of severe data l i m i t a t i o n s concerning past l e v e l s of m o r t a l i t y i n Canada. And to p r e d i c t future change, based upon those explanations. 'The linkages between s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l changes accompanying modernization and decreases i n f e r t i l i t y are more e x p l i c i t l y o u t l i n e d i n Chapter I I I . ' D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n timing of d e c l i n e . 'which cannot be explained by d i f f e r e n c e s i n bre a s t f e e d i n g behaviour or h e a l t h . 'A d i s c u s s i o n of t h i s debate, w i t h f u l l e r r eferences, i s provided i n Blake and Das Gupta (19 75). *This debate has i m p l i c a t i o n s over and above t h e o r e t i c a l ones. Po p u l a t i o n p o l i c y d i f f e r s depending upon which model i s accepted by policy-makers and funders. A l s o , the p o l i t i c s of population tend t o p o l a r i z e on t h i s i s s u e , as was evident at the United Nations Conference on Population i n 19 74 i n Rumania. There, a sharp d i v i s i o n could be observed between the " t e c h n o l o g i s t s " or fami l y planners, c a l l e d neo-Malthusians by the opposition, and the m o t i v a t i o n a l i s t s , whose slogan was "Take care of the people, and the pop u l a t i o n w i l l take care of i t s e l f . " 17 "Family l i m i t a t i o n , " f o r Knodel, r e f e r s to p a r i t y - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l . "And the United States. N o n - B r i t i s h and non-French. 'However, French immigration has never been s i g n i f i c a n t since the i n i t i a l p e r i o d of settlement. A l s o , immigration of eastern Europeans, p a r t i c u l a r l y since World War I I , has been blocked by p o l i c i e s operative i n those c o u n t r i e s . One exception, though, was the i n - m i g r a t i o n of Hungarian refugees i n t o Canada during the mid 195 0s. CHAPTER I I THE CANADIAN DATA Census-taking on a re g u l a r b a s i s began i n Canada i n 1851. Although New France (Quebec) i s c r e d i t e d w i t h the f i r s t census of modern times (1665-66), census-taking a f t e r the B r i t i s h Conquest was sporadic, the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of c o l o n i a l governors. In 184 7, an Act of the United Provinces created a Board of R e g i s t r a t i o n and S t a t i s t i c s which was re s p o n s i b l e f o r c o l l e c t i n g and disseminating s t a t i s t i c s (Coats, 1923:1-2). Therefore, beginning i n 1851-52, census data are a v a i l a b l e on a ten year basis."*" However, census informa t i o n f o r a l l Canadian provinces i s not a v a i l a b l e from t h i s e a r l y date. In the pre-conf e d e r a t i o n Census of 1851-52, only Upper Canada 2 (Ontario) and Lower Canada (Quebec) were covered; i n 1861, data f o r New Brunswick and Nova S c o t i a became a v a i l a b l e a l s o . In the f i r s t Census of (confederated) Canada i n 1871, these four provinces were enumerated. In the 18 81 Census, P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , Manitoba, and B r i t i s h Columbia were inc l u d e d and, i n 1891, Saskatchewan and A l b e r t a were added. Newfoundland, which became a Canadian province i n 19 49, was covered i n the censuses from 1951 onwards. Thus, i t was not 18 u n t i l 19 51 t h a t census coverage f o r a l l ten Canadian 3 provinces .was a t t a i n e d . As no complete set of p r o v i n c i a l data e x i s t s f o r the p e r i o d from 1851 to 1971, c o m p a r a b i l i t y i s hampered by lack of a v a i l a b l e data. On a more p o s i t i v e note, once the Canadian census i n c l u d e d a province, that province continued to be enumerated i n a l l f o l l o w i n g censuses. Therefore, f o r each province there e x i s t s an uninterrupted set of data, w i t h i n the c o n s t r a i n t s of the types of i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d i n any given census year. 4 U n t i l 19 21, when a nation-wide v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n system was i n s t i t u t e d , data concerning v i t a l events were c o l l e c t e d by the censuses. However, these data proved to be so u n r e l i a b l e t h a t the Census of 1911 abandoned t h e i r c o l l e c t i o n (Brower et a l . , 1956:94). With the advent of the v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n system, the accuracy of v i t a l data improved markedly as a r e s u l t of the requirements imposed by the system. As a c o n d i t i o n f o r entry i n t o the n a t i o n a l r e g i s t r a t i o n system, each province had to demonstrate t h a t r e g i s t r a t i o n was at l e a s t 90 percent complete (Brower et a l . , 1956:95). Thus, i n f o r m a t i o n on t o t a l b i r t h s was obtained from two sources: the Canadian censuses and, from 1921 onwards, the V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s Reports. Apart from the v a r i a t i o n i n r e l i a b i l i t y of inform a t i o n contained i n these two sources, they d i f f e r i n the types and consistency of data provided. In the Censuses of 1851-52 to 1881 and the Census of 1901, 20 data on t o t a l b i r t h s during the year p r i o r to the date of 5 the census were given. In the Censuses of 1891 and 1911, no data concerning b i r t h s were provided. In the censuses which d i d present i n f o r m a t i o n on b i r t h s , the type of informat i o n v a r i e d . Data on b i r t h s by sex were provided i n the Censuses of 1851-52 to 1881; b i r t h s by month of occurrence as w e l l as data on s t i l l b i r t h s were a v a i l a b l e only i n 1871 and 1881. At no time i n the census coverage of b i r t h s was in f o r m a t i o n presented concerning b i r t h s by age or m a r i t a l s t a t u s of mother. More d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on b i r t h s and other v i t a l events was made a v a i l a b l e by the published V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s Reports. B i r t h s were c r o s s - t a b u l a t e d by age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s of mother; data concerning b i r t h order, i l l e g i t i m a c y , s t i l l b i r t h s , i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , and age at marriage became a v a i l a b l e on an annual b a s i s . A l s o , the Censuses of 1941, 19 61 and 19 71 provided data concerning number of c h i l d r e n ever-born t o ever-married women, as a supplement to the inf o r m a t i o n on annual b i r t h s a v a i l a b l e i n V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s Reports. Thus, data concerning b i r t h s are a v a i l a b l e from 1851-52 onwards, at l e a s t f o r some provinces, w i t h the exception of 1891 and 1911. However, the data e x t r a c t e d from the e a r l i e r Century censuses cannot be accepted at face-value. As noted above, the Census of 1911 discontinued t h e i r c o l l e c t i o n because of u n r e l i a b i l i t y . Not only were b i r t h s undercounted, but a l s o a c e r t a i n degree of confusion surrounds the census treatment of s t i l l b i r t h s . As s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , the Censuses of 1871 and 1881 provided separate informa t i o n on number of s t i l l b i r t h s . But, i n the other census years, i t i s not known i f s t i l l b i r t h s were in c l u d e d as b i r t h s , as deaths, or were ignored. A l s o , none of the nineteenth century censuses provided data concerning i l l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h s . I t remains an open question as to whether these b i r t h s were included i n , or omitted from, the census counts of b i r t h s . In view of these ambiguities and the c e r t a i n t y of b i r t h undercounts, the census data on b i r t h s were abandoned i n favour of new estimates. F o l l o w i n g i s a d i s c u s s i o n of the methodology employed to estimate b i r t h s f o r the census years 1851-52 to 1911, and to c o r r e c t f o r undercounts i n the v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n data i n the years 1921, 1931 and 1941. The number of b i r t h s was estimated by the method of childhood s u r v i v a l r a t e s , as used by Jacques H e n r i p i n (1972) f o r Canada and s e l e c t e d provinces. With t h i s method, p l a u s i b l e s u r v i v o r s h i p r a t e s are a p p l i e d t o the population of males and females, s e p a r a t e l y , aged 0-4 and 5-9 i n the census ten years f o l l o w i n g the census year under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . In theory, the number of male and female c h i l d r e n aged 0-4 and 5-9 i n the second census year i s simply d i v i d e d by the appropriate s u r v i v a l r a t e i n order to o b t a i n an estimate of the number of b i r t h s of each sex 22 o c c u r r i n g i n the quinquennial periods between census years. Then the estimates f o r each sex are added together to o b t a i n the t o t a l number of b i r t h s . I t should be pointed out t h a t the estimate of b i r t h s a t t a i n e d by t h i s method r e f e r s to the two f i v e year periods between census years, or, i f the estimate i s d i v i d e d by ten i n order to o b t a i n an annual estimate,^ i t i s a b e t t e r i n d i c a t o r of the number of b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g i n the middle year between censuses than i n the census year i t s e l f . This problem was p a r t i a l l y avoided by applying s u r v i v a l r a t e s to the population aged 0-4 i n the census year and to the population aged 5-9 i n the f o l l o w i n g census year. In t h i s way, the estimate r e f e r r e d to b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g during the two f i v e year periods c e n t e r i n g on the census year i t s e l f . When t h i s f i g u r e was d i v i d e d by ten, the r e s u l t i n g estimate i n d i c a t e d the number of b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g i n the census year. The method of childhood s u r v i v a l r a t e s y i e l d s reasonably accurate estimates only when c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s are met. F i r s t , the s u r v i v a l r a t e s t h a t are a p p l i e d must correspond to a c t u a l m o r t a l i t y c o n d i t i o n s . However, a c t u a l s u r v i v o r s h i p i n nineteenth and e a r l y t w e n t i e t h Century Canada i s unknown. Thus, i t was necessary to borrow known trends of s u r v i v o r s h i p i n s i m i l a r populations. The s u r v i v a l r a t e s used were derived from E n g l i s h l i f e t a b l e s f o r the Censuses of 1851 to 19 01 and Glover's American l i f e t a b l e s 23 f o r the Census of 1911, as presented by H e n r i p i n (1972:360). Second, accurate estimates are dependent upon a f u l l census count of c h i l d r e n aged 0-4 and 5-9. However, i t i s young ages t h a t are most prone to u n d e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . As p o i n t e d out by H e n r i p i n (1972:360), when the p o p u l a t i o n s aged 0-4 and 5-9 are d i v i d e d by s u r v i v a l r a t e s , i t occurs s y s t e m a t i c a l l y t h a t the number of b i r t h s c orresponding to the age group 0-4 i s n o t i c e a b l y lower than t h a t a t t r i b u t e d t o the age group 5-9. T h i s phenomenon i n d i c a t e s t h a t c h i l d r e n 0-4 are undercounted r e l a t i v e t o c h i l d r e n aged 5-9. Undercounts are a f u n c t i o n of underenumeration and of age misstatement. That i s , some of the c h i l d r e n aged 0-4 were missed by the census and others were c l a s s i f i e d i n c o r r e c t l y i n terms of age. T h i r d , the method of c h i l d h o o d s u r v i v a l r a t e s assumes zero net m i g r a t i o n between census years. Losses to the p o p u l a t i o n under age 10 are due to deaths alone while a d d i t i o n s are the r e s u l t o f b i r t h s alone. I f t h i s assumption i s v i o l a t e d , t h i s method overestimates b i r t h s when net m i g r a t i o n of c h i l d r e n under 10 i s p o s i t i v e , and underestimates b i r t h s when net m i g r a t i o n of c h i l d r e n under 10 i s n e g a t i v e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , there i s no way to assess the m i g r a t i o n experiences o f the c h i l d p o p u l a t i o n ( K e y f i t z , 1950:50). Although the net m i g r a t i o n of persons aged over 10 years and over was n e g a t i v e f o r the years from 1861 to 1901, there i s no b a s i s f o r assuming t h a t a s i m i l a r case e x i s t e d i n regard to c h i l d r e n . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t persons who migrated to Canada w i t h c h i l d r e n were more l i k e l y to s e t t l e w i t h i n Canada, ra t h e r than moving on to the United S t a t e s , than person immigrating alone. S i m i l a r l y , i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t Canadian-born persons emigrating from Canada were more l i k e l y to be unattached i n d i v i d u a l s than persons w i t h c h i l d r e n . In e i t h e r event, the net migration of c h i l d r e n would d i f f e r from t h a t of the ad u l t p o p u l a t i o n , and i n a d i r e c t i o n favouring p o s i t i v e net migration. I f such was the case, although i t i s impossible to assess, the technique of s u r v i v a l rates y i e l d s b i r t h estimates t h a t are too high. As a r e s u l t of c e r t a i n v i o l a t i o n of the assumption of complete census r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the childhood p o p u l a t i o n and probable v i o l a t i o n of the assumption of zero net m i g r a t i o n of c h i l d r e n under age 10, i t was necessary to make c o r r e c t i o n s to the estimates based on the childhood s u r v i v a l rate method. The method of c o r r e c t i o n i n v o l v e d the computation of a s e t of b i r t h r a t e s , f o r each sex, t h a t corresponded to the p r o p o r t i o n of the male and female population under age 10 as reported i n the census volumes (United Nations, 1967:29). This technique i n v o l v e d the use of model s t a b l e populations i n conjunction w i t h assumed l e v e l s of m o r t a l i t y . The m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s u t i l i z e d were those der i v e d by Coale and Demeny (1966) t h a t most c l o s e l y approximated the m o r t a l i t y schedules presented by K e y f i t z (1950:49) and H e n r i p i n (1972:360). The assumed l e v e l s are as f o l l o w s : Census Year Model L i f e Table L i f e Expectancy at B i r t h Male Female 1851-52 1861 1871-1881 1891-1901 1911 West 8 West 9 West 10 West 11 West 13 34. 9 37. 3 39. 7 42.1 47.1 37.5 40.0 42. 5 45. 0 50.0 The use of model s t a b l e populations may appear to be unwarranted i n a s i t u a t i o n where the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of s t a b i l i t y , i . e . , unchanging f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y , are not met. However, i t has been found t h a t v a l i d estimates of b i r t h s can be obtained i n populations t h a t are not s t a b l e , as long as the estimates are based on ages under 15 (Shryock and S i e g e l , 1973:827; United Nations, 1967:29). As t h i s second c o n d i t i o n was met, the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s technique was j u s t i f i e d . assumed m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s , estimated crude b i r t h r ates ( b i r t h s per 1000 population) f o r males and females were obtained. From these crude b i r t h r a t e s , i t was p o s s i b l e to estimate the p r o p o r t i o n and, hence, the t o t a l number, of males and females aged 0-4 expected i f no undercounts of c h i l d r e n 0-4 occurred and i f net migration i n t h i s age group was n e g l i b l e . Any d i f f e r e n c e between the expected number and the a c t u a l or reported number was a t t r i b u t e d to the combined e f f e c t s of census underrepresentation and non-zero With the use of model s t a b l e populations and the 26 net m i g r a t i o n on the reported f i g u r e s . The a c t u a l number of males and females aged 0-4 was replaced by the expected number f o r the e s t i m a t i o n of b i r t h s by the childhood s u r v i v a l r a t e method, as t h i s technique assumes f u l l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n and n e g l i b l e net migration. The reported male and female population aged 0-4, the expected p o p u l a t i o n , and the percent d i f f e r e n c e are presented i n Table I . I t w i l l be noted t h a t the percent d i f f e r e n c e s between the expected population and the reported population are not l a r g e , l e s s than 8 percent i n a l l cases. A p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h a t the e f f e c t s of underrepresentation and non-zero net migr a t i o n work i n opposite d i r e c t i o n s , s e r v i n g to cancel out one another. That i s , census under-r e p r e s e n t a t i o n creates an undercount whereas non-neglible migration works to r a i s e the a c t u a l count over the expected l e v e l . The s p e c u l a t i o n made e a r l i e r , concerning the p o s s i b i l i t y of p o s i t i v e net migration of c h i l d r e n , f i t s i n wi t h t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n . By r e p l a c i n g the reported population aged 0-4 w i t h the expected p o p u l a t i o n aged 0-4, a new estimate of b i r t h s was obtained. I t has been argued t h a t the population aged 5-9, as reported i n these e a r l y censuses, i s i n need of c o r r e c t i o n a l s o (Henripin, 1972:360-1). However, a d e c i s i o n not to make c o r r e c t i o n s f o r the census count of c h i l d r e n aged 5-9 was made, based on the f o l l o w i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . 27 Table I Reported and Expected Male and Female P o p u l a t i o n , aged 0-4, and Percent D i f f e r e n c e Canada, 1 1 8 5 1 - 1 9 1 1 5 R e p o r t e d P o p u l a t i o n E x p e c t e d P o p u l a t i o n P e r c e n t D i f f e r e n c e Year Male Female Male Female Male Female 1851 2 172,205 166,122 170,352 166,327 +1.1 -0.1 1861 3 245,938 236,322 239,337 232,059 +2.8 +1.8 1871 4 258,865 248,907 279,408 268,658 -7.5 -7.9 1881 304,050 294,535 318,242 309,045 -4.7 -4.9 1891 310,089 301,503 322,322 313,680 -3.9 -4.0 1901 327,842 321,056 337,359 328,761 -2.9 -2.4 1911 451,371 440,565 444,116 441,020 +1.6 -0.1 R e f e r s t o p r e s e n t a r e a of Canada, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland, u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e s t a t e d . I n c l u d e s Upper Canada ( O n t a r i o ) and Lower Canada (Quebec). 3 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada, Lower Canada and Nova S c o t i a . ^ I n c l u d e s O n t a r i o , Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 5 " - " i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e p o r t e d p o p u l a t i o n i s s m a l l e r than t h e expected p o p u l a t i o n ; "+" i n d i c a t e s t h a t the r e p o r t e d p o p u l a t i o n i s l a r g e r t h a n the e xpected p o p u l a t i o n . S o u r c e s : The r e p o r t e d p o p u l a t i o n s aged 0-4 were taken from the f o l l o w i n g census s t a t i s t i c s . Censuses of Canada: 1851-52 (v. 1, a p p e n d i c e s 5 and 6, t a b l e 4 ) ; 1861 (v. 1, G e n e r a l A b s t r a c t o f A g e s ) ; 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 9 ) . There i s a g e n e r a l tendency f o r the census counts o f c h i l d r e n t o be a f f e c t e d more by age misstatements than by underenumeration ( G r a b i l l e t a l . , 1 9 5 8 : 4 0 6 ) . In other words, i t i s more l i k e l y t h a t a c h i l d i s m i s c l a s s i f i e d by age, u s u a l l y i n terms of an approaching b i r t h d a y , e s p e c i a l l y one ending i n a d i g i t "O" or " 5 " , than i t i s t h a t a c h i l d i s 28 missed by the census a l t o g e t h e r . For example, some four year olds w i l l be c l a s s i f i e d i n c o r r e c t l y as f i v e year olds and some nine year olds w i l l be misreported as ten year o l d s . I f data on s i n g l e years of age are a v a i l a b l e , i t i s p o s s i b l e to t e s t f o r the occurrence of t h i s phenomenon, through the c a l c u l a t i o n of age r a t i o s . When the number of persons reported at a given age i s d i v i d e d by the a r i t h m e t i c mean of the numbers reported i n the two adjacent ages, the expectation i s t h a t a r a t i o of 1 w i l l be obtained, assuming l i n e a r i t y i n the age d i s t r i b u t i o n . A r a t i o l a r g e r than 1 i n d i c a t e s t h a t there i s an overcount or "heaping" a t that age, w h i l e an age r a t i o smaller than 1 i n d i c a t e s a p o s s i b l e undercount. As the Census of 1881 presented data on s i n g l e years of age, age r a t i o s f o r ages 4, 5, 9 and 10 were c a l c u l a t e d . Evidence of "heaping" was found at ages 5 and 10; the age r a t i o s were 1.01 and 1.07 r e s p e c t i v e l y . Ratios lower than 1, i n d i c a t i v e of underreporting, were found at ages 4 (.99) and 9 (.95). Therefore, e r r o r s due to m i s r e p o r t i n g i n the census counts f o r the age group 5-9, as i n d i c a t e d by the 1881 data, tend to cancel out one another. The l o s s of nine year olds counted as ten year olds i s p a r t i a l l y compensated f o r by the a d d i t i o n of f o u r year olds counted as f i v e year olds. A l s o , any age misstatements at the non-boundary ages (6, 7 and 8) are i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l i n terms of the t o t a l count of c h i l d r e n aged 5-9. As a r e s u l t of the p a t t e r n i n g of age misstatement, the net e f f e c t of census e r r o r due to age mi s r e p o r t i n g , i n terms of the t o t a l count at ages 5-9, i s not great. Therefore, the census counts f o r t h i s age group were not adjusted f o r the purposes of b i r t h e s t i m a t i o n by g the s u r v i v a l rate method. For the census years 1851-52 to 1911, b i r t h estimates based on the s u r v i v a l method, w i t h adjustments made on the census counts at ages 0-4, were c a l c u l a t e d f o r Canada. These estimates, compared w i t h the census counts of b i r t h s , are presented i n Table I I . I t was p o s s i b l e to make estimates f o r b i r t h s i n 1921, 1931 and 1941 by a simpler procedure. As noted p r e v i o u s l y , since 19 21 annual b i r t h data have been c o l l e c t e d by a n a t i o n a l v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n system, which demanded a minimum of 9 0 percent completeness by provinces as a c o n d i t i o n f o r i n c l u s i o n i n the system. I t has been estimated t h a t b i r t h s were 91 percent complete i n 1921, 94 percent complete i n 19 31, and 97 percent complete i n 1941 9 (Ryder, 1954:80). B i r t h estimates i n these years, c o r r e c t e d f o r u n d e r r e g i s t r a t i o n i n l i g h t of the above estimates of completeness, are presented i n Table I I . Since 1946, w i t h the advent of the f a m i l y allowance programme, b i r t h r e g i s t r a t i o n has been s u f f i c i e n t l y complete to req u i r e no c o r r e c t i o n s . 30 Table I I Reported and Estimated B i r t h s Canada, 1 1851-1941 • Year Reported B i r t h s Estimated B i r t h s Completeness of Reported B i r t h s Q. "O 1851 2 69,400 86,309 80.4 1861 3 103,574 118,315 87.5 1871 4 117,446 136,615 86. 0 1881 138,347 152,776 90.6 1891 - 156,817 -1901 149,448 176,807 84. 5 1911 - 224,329 -1921 5 168,979 185,691 91.0 1921 6 - 274,439 -1931 240,654 256,015 94. 0 1941 ,255,705 263,613 97.0 1 R e f e r s t o present area of Canada, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland, unless otherwise stat e d . 2 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada (Ontario) and Lower Canada (Quebec). 3 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada, Lower Canada and Nova S c o t i a . 4 I n c l u d e s Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 5Excludes Quebec. 6 I n c l u d e s Quebec. Sources: The numbers of reported b i r t h s were taken from the f o l l o w i n g s t a t i s t i c s . Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 1, appendices 5 and 6, t a b l e 4); 1861 (v. 1, General A b s t r a c t of Ages); 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1881 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1901 (v. 4, t a b l e 9). V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1921 (table 4); 1931 (table 3 and appendix 2); 1941 (table 11 and appendix 2, ta b l e A). 31 For the estimates made on the census counts of b i r t h s , i . e . , f o r the years 1851-52 to 1911, a crude v a l i d i t y check was made, through the computation of sex r a t i o s at b i r t h . In a western p o p u l a t i o n , i t i s expected that the sex r a t i o at b i r t h w i l l be approximately 105 male b i r t h s f o r every 100 female b i r t h s . As male and female b i r t h s were estimated independently, i t was p o s s i b l e to compare the estimated sex r a t i o w i t h the expected sex r a t i o . Values c l o s e to 105 w i l l provide some confidence that the estimates are reasonable. The c a l c u l a t e d sex r a t i o s , presented i n Table I I I , are close to the expected value of 105. In f a c t , i n f i v e of the seven census years, the value i s e x a c t l y as expected. A second way t o assess the a c c e p t a b i l i t y of the b i r t h estimates i s to compare them w i t h other estimates and attempt to account f o r d i f f e r e n c e s . Three sets of Canadian h i s t o r i c a l b i r t h estimates, i n the form of crude b i r t h r a t e s , are i n ex i s t e n c e : those of K e y f i t z (1950), H e n r i p i n (1972), and Mclnnis (1974). These crude b i r t h r a t e s e r i e s , along w i t h the one c a l c u l a t e d here, are presented i n Table IV. I t w i l l be noted t h a t the He n r i p i n estimates are c o n s i s t e n t l y the hig h e s t , the K e y f i t z estimates are c o n s i s t e n t l y the lowest, and the Mclnnis and research estimates are i n the middle range, w i t h l i t t l e disagreement. The l a r g e s t d i f f e r e n t i a l between these l a t t e r two s e r i e s 32 Table I I I Sex Ratios at B i r t h : Canada, 1 1851-1911 Year Male B i r t h s per 100 Female B i r t h s 1851 2 105 1861 3 105 1871 4 105 1881 105 1891 105 1901 104 1911 103 d e f e r s unless to present area of Canada, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland, otherwise s t a t e d . 2 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada (Ontario) and Lower Canada (Quebec). 3 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada, Lower Canada, and Nova S c o t i a . ^Includes Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. Table IV A l t e r n a t i v e Canadian Crude B i r t h Rate S e r i e s : 1851-1911 B i r t h s per 1000 population Year Henripin Estimate K e y f i t z Estimate Mclnnis ^ Research Estimate Estimate 1851 46.2 43.1 46.8 1861 44.9 39. 7 45.0 41.7 1871 45.0 37.1 39.0 39.2 1881 39. 3 34 .1 35.0 35.3 1891 35. 7 31. 8 32.5 32.4 1901 36.0 28.8 30.5 32.9 1911 34.4 26.8 31.0 31.1 Estimated from Figure 3 i n Mclnnis (1974). Sources: H e n r i p i n (1972:366); K e y f i t z (1950:55); Mclnnis (1974:16) . 33 occurs w i t h the 1861 estimate, when the percent d i f f e r e n c e approaches 8 percent. In terms of trend, the research estimates agree w i t h both the K e y f i t z and Mclnnis estimates i n i n d i c a t i n g a steady downward trend. The H e n r i p i n s e r i e s alone does not e x h i b i t a downward trend u n t i l a f t e r 1871. The K e y f i t z , H e n r i p i n , and research estimates are based on the childhood s u r v i v a l r a t e method and assume e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s . The major f a c t o r accounting f o r the d i f f e r e n c e s among these estimates concerns the way i n which census underrepresentation of c h i l d r e n i s handled. Henripin (1972) made c o r r e c t i o n s f o r underrepresentation w i t h i n the age groups 0-4 and 5-9; the technique employed here c o r r e c t e d f o r counting e r r o r w i t h i n the age group 0-4 only; K e y f i t z (1950) made no c o r r e c t i o n f o r census undercount, although h i s c a l c u l a t i o n s , based on data of c h i l d r e n aged under 10, r a t h e r than 0-4 and 5-9, i n v o l v e d an i n d i r e c t c o r r e c t i o n f o r age misstatement. I t has been argued t h a t H e n r i p i n o v e r c o r r e c t s f o r underenumeration, e s p e c i a l l y f o r the age group 5-9, and thus produces b i r t h estimates t h a t are too high (Mclnnis, 1974: 14). His c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s are g e n e r a l l y large and e x h i b i t a wide range, i n d i c a t i n g underenumeration as high as 14 percent ( i n 1911-19 21) and s l i g h t overenumeration ( i n 1851-1861) (Henripin, 1972:363). I t seems do u b t f u l t h a t c h i l d r e n aged 5-9 were underenumerated i n excess of 10 percent. On the one hand, as was s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , the 34 more common e r r o r i n v o l v e s age misstatements which have the tendency to cancel out one another. On the other hand, K e y f i t z ' s m i g r a t i o n estimates f o r the age group 5-9 do not r e v e a l n o t i c e a b l e d i s t o r t i o n s , suggestive of s i g n i f i c a n t underenumeration, whereas h i s m i g r a t i o n estimates f o r the age group 0-4 do (Mclnnis, 1974:14). Both the magnitude and the trend of the H e n r i p i n estimates appear to be r e l a t e d to the s i z e and v a r i a b i l i t y i n the c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s f o r ages 5-9. The adjustments o v e r c o r r e c t f o r underenumeration and, thus, r e s u l t i n estimates t h a t are l i k e l y too high i n most years. A l s o , as stated above, h i s s e r i e s e x h i b i t s a unique trend, w i t h the crude b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n i n g only a f t e r 1871. An e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s trend l i e s i n the s i z e and d i r e c t i o n of the c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s i n these e a r l y years. His c a l c u l a t i o n s imply t h a t c h i l d r e n aged 5-9 were underemunerated by more than 12 percent i n 1871 but s l i g h t l y overenumerated i n 1851 and 1861. As a r e s u l t , b i r t h s are perhaps underestimated i n 1851 and 1861 and overestimated i n 1871. Such a p a t t e r n of e r r o r i n e s t i m a t i o n would account f o r the trend apparent i n the H e n r i p i n s e r i e s . Mclnnis' estimates, which l i e between those of K e y f i t z and H e n r i p i n and are c l o s e to the research estimates, represent the r e s u l t of the average of s e v e r a l techniques, i n c l u d i n g the s u r v i v a l r a t e method. The major change introduced by Mclnnis was the use of cohort reverse s u r v i v a l method, a technique which i n v o l v e s the repeated s u r v i v i n g backwards of a b i r t h cohort, as i t i s observed over censuses, i n order to o b t a i n a set of b i r t h estimates which are then averaged. Mclnnis combined the native-born Canadian po p u l a t i o n r e s i d e n t i n Canada and the Canadian-born population r e s i d e n t i n the United States i n order t o o b t a i n m i g r a t i o n - f r e e estimates of s u r v i v i n g cohort p o p u l a t i o n s i z e . The advantages of t h i s technique are that the confounding e f f e c t s of m i g r a t i o n are e l i m i n a t e d and t h a t census enumeration e r r o r i s averaged out. However, t h i s method, l i k e the s u r v i v a l r a t e method, i s dependent upon assumed m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s . A l s o , an important l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i s t h a t lack of data does not allow the use of t h i s procedure at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l . I t i s d i f f i c u l t to account f o r the d i f f e r e n c e s among the Mclnnis and other s e r i e s , mainly because of lack of i n f o r m a t i o n concerning the other procedures t h a t Mclnnis employed. However, because the cohort reverse s u r v i v a l method deals more adequately w i t h m i g r a t i o n , e s s e n t i a l l y by " c r e a t i n g " a c l o s e d p o p u l a t i o n , than does the reverse s u r v i v a l method, and because the Mclnnis s e r i e s i s based on the r e s u l t s of a multi-method procedure, i t seems l i k e l y t h at the Mclnnis Canadian s e r i e s i s the s u p e r i o r one. The f a c t that the present research, which could not employ cohort methods because of data l i m i t a t i o n s at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l , produced estimates that c o i n c i d e c l o s e l y w i t h those of Mclnnis adds a measure of b e l i e v a b i l i t y to the present r e s u l t s . Apart from e s t i m a t i n g b i r t h s f o r Canada as a whole, a set of acceptable p r o v i n c i a l estimates was d e s i r e d . The s u r v i v a l r a t e method, w i t h the o u t l i n e d adjustments f o r underrepresentation at ages 0-4, was used. However, when the population of a province grew s u b s t a n t i a l l y , defined as more than 50 percent, between census years, t h i s technique was not u t i l i z e d . I t was assumed t h a t growth of such dimension, n e c e s s a r i l y due to a s i g n i f i c a n t amount of i n -m i g r a t i o n , was l i k e l y to be f e l t i n the childhood population as w e l l . The i n a p p l i c a b i l i t y of the s u r v i v a l r a t e technique, due to s i g n i f i c a n t v i o l a t i o n of the assumption of zero net m i g r a t i o n , occurred i n the case of the western provinces i n the p e r i o d spanning from 1881 to 1911. A l l western provinces covered i n these census years experienced i n t e r c e n s a l growth exceeding 5 0 percent. In some in s t a n c e s , the growth w e l l exceeded 100 percent, as was the case i n Manitoba i n 1881-1891 (131 p e r c e n t ) , B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1901-1911 (120 p e r c e n t ) , Saskatchewan i n 1901-1911 (440 percent) and A l b e r t a i n 1901-1911 (413 per c e n t ) . In the l i g h t of such s u b s t a n t i a l growth, i t was decided t h a t b i r t h estimates f o r each western province were not f e a s i b l e . Rather, an estimate, f o r each census year, f o r the t o t a l west"'""'" was obtained i n a r e s i d u a l f a s h i o n . 37 The number of b i r t h s estimated f o r the eastern provinces was subtracted from the number of b i r t h s estimated f o r Canada as a whole i n each census year from 1881 to 1911. The p r o v i n c i a l b i r t h rate estimates are presented i n Table V. Table V Estimated P r o v i n c i a l Crude B i r t h Rates 1851-1911 B i r t h s per 1000 Population Year P.E.I. Nova S c o t i a New Brunswick Quebec Ontario "West" 1851 - - 46. 0 47.7 -1861 - 39.1 40. 6 43.1 -1871 - 37. 3 38.4 39.9 39. 3 -1881 34. 0 32.6 33.9 39.0 33.5 37.5 1891 30.9 30. 3 32.2 36.5 28. 8 40.6 1901 27.0 29.5 30.9 36.9 27.0 47.2 1911 25.1 28.3 30.5 34.8 26.2 35. 3 A p a r t i a l t e s t of the v a l i d i t y of the p r o v i n c i a l estimates was made by comparing the enumerated b i r t h s w i t h the estimated b i r t h s , i n an attempt to measure the extent of b i r t h underenumeration. I f the p r o v i n c i a l estimates are f a i r l y accurate, two phenomena are expected to emerge. One, the degree of underenumeration i n Quebec w i l l be low, as t h a t province possessed an e x c e l l e n t r e g i s t r a t i o n system f o r C a t h o l i c b i r t h s since the beginning of French c o l o n i z a t i o n (Henripin, 1972:351). Two, the western provinces (combined) w i l l experience a high degree of underenumeration due to 38 t h e i r p o p ulation composition and inexperience w i t h census-t a k i n g . As shown i n Table VI these expected d i f f e r e n t i a l s d i d , i n f a c t , emerge. Table VI Estimates of P r o v i n c i a l B i r t h Underenumeration: 1851, 1861, 1871, 1881, and 1901 Percent Underenumeration Nova New Year P.E.I. S c o t i a Brunswick Quebec Ontario "West" 1851 - - - 10. 2 28.0 -1861 - 25.7 - 9.7 11. 7 -1871 - 19.5 16. 3 2.7 20. 8 -1881 11. 8 13. 6 10.1 0. 0 12.6 45.0 1901 21.9 21. 2 15.9 1.6 11.4 47.7 Sources: The numbers of reported b i r t h s were taken from the f o l l o w i n g census s t a t i s t i c s . Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 1, appendices 5 and 6, t a b l e 4); 1861 (v. 1, General A b s t r a c t of Ages); 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1901 (v. 4, t a b l e 9) The second major problem i n v o l v e d w i t h the use of Canadian census data concerns the reaggregation of t o t a l p o p u lation by age and population by age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s i n t o f i v e year age groups. This problem i s p a r t i c u l a r l y important i n the case of t o t a l women and married women i n the c h i l d b e a r i n g ages of 15-49, as subsequent analyses r e q u i r e t h a t a l l women and married women of c h i l d b e a r i n g age be aggregated i n t o f i v e - y e a r age groups. A l s o , estimates of the male and female s i n g l e p o p ulation i n t o 39 f i v e - y e a r age c a t e g o r i e s f o r ages between 15 and 5 4 were de s i r e d . The e a r l y Canadian censuses d i d not present i n f o r m a t i o n on age-sex d i s t r i b u t i o n and m a r i t a l status by age i n the d e s i r e d form. In the censuses p r i o r to 1881, the age d i s t r i b u t i o n of the Canadian male and female p o p u l a t i o n was presented i n ten-year age c a t e g o r i e s a f t e r age 20. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of the population by m a r i t a l status was aggregated i n ten-year age groups a f t e r age 20 i n the Censuses of 1851-52 and 1861 and was presented f o r age groups 15-20, 21-30, 31-40 and 41-60 i n 1871 and 1881. In 1891, the data on m a r i t a l s t a t u s were presented f o r age groups 15-24, 25-34, 35-44 and 45-54. The 1951 Census provided data on m a r i t a l status f o r ten-year age groups a f t e r age 25 f o r the p r o v i n c e s , although i n f o r m a t i o n f o r Canada as a whole was given f o r f i v e - y e a r age groups. A l s o , the 19 01 Census provided no i n f o r m a t i o n concerning m a r i t a l s t a t u s by age. The i n t e r p o l a t i o n of grouped data was performed by the c u m u l a t i o n - d i f f e r e n c i n g method using data on absolute numbers (Shryock and S i e g e l , 1973:698). This method has a sounder t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s than the more common "midpoint" technique as the assumption that a group average corresponds e x a c t l y to the group midpoint i s not made. This method has the pragmatic advantage of a p p l i c a b i l i t y to grouped data of any i n t e r v a l s i z e and to grouped data 40 corresponding to any curve. Therefore, t h i s technique was a p p l i e d f o r i n t e r p o l a t i o n s at a l l census years when data were not grouped i n t o f i v e - y e a r age c a t e g o r i e s , regardless of length of age i n t e r v a l provided i n the census. The f i r s t step of t h i s procedure i n v o l v e d cumulating, from the youngest age group, the population i n each age 12 group as given i n the census. Through cumulation, the o r i g i n a l data were transformed from group data i n t o data r e f e r r i n g to s p e c i f i c ages. Then, i n t e r p o l a t i o n was performed using Aitken's i t e r a t i v e procedure which i s a system of successive l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n s e q u i v a l e n t to i n t e r p o l a t i o n by a polynomial of any des i r e d degree (Shryock and S i e g e l , 1973:684). This technique i s i l l u s t r a t e d using the data f o r women i n Quebec (Lower Canada) i n 1851-5 2. The numbers of women as reported i n the census were as f o l l o w s : 53,180 aged 15-19; 74,536 aged 20-29; 45,032 aged 30-39; and 31,829 aged 40-49. Suppose one i s i n t e r e s t e d i n knowing the number of women aged 20-24. I t i s necessary to f i n d the cumulative t o t a l , to age 25, the upper l i m i t of the age group, and subtra c t from i t the cumulative t o t a l to age 20. The b a s i c format f o r i n t e r p o l a t i o n among four given p o i n t s f o r the value f(x) i s as f o l l o w s : Computational Stages Proportionate Ordinates (1) (2) (3) P a r t s f(a) - - - a-x f(b) f(x;a,b) - b-x f(c ) f(x;a,c) f(x;a,b,c) c-x f(d) f(x;a,d) f(x;a,b,d) f(x;a,b,c,d) d-x where, i n t h i s example, a = 20, b = 30, c = 40, d = 50, x = 25 The computational f o r m u l i are presented i n Shryock and S i e g e l (1973:685). In general terms, the procedure i n v o l v e s computing diagonal cross-products, d i f f e r e n c i n g them and d i v i d i n g by the d i f f e r e n c e between the proportionate p a r t s . The proportionate p a r t s are d i f f e r e n c e s between the given a b s c i s s a and the one f o r which the i n t e r p o l a t i o n i s wanted. The c a l c u l a t i o n s of the 1851 Quebec data f o r f(x) = 25 are as f o l l o w s : Cumulated Computations Proportionate Ordinates Population (1) (2) (3) Pa r t s 20 53,180 - - - -5 30 127,716 90,448 - - +5 40 172,748 83,072 94,136 - +15 50 204,577 78,413 93,457 95,155 +25 The i n t e r p o l a t e d f i g u r e 95,155 r e f e r s to the cumulative t o t a l number of women up to age 25. The number of women aged 20-24 i s t h i s f i g u r e minus the number cumulated to age 20 (53,180) which equals 41,975. A l s o , s u b t r a c t i n g the cumulative t o t a l to age 25 (95,155) from the given cumulative t o t a l t o age 30 (127,716) produces the number of women aged 25-29, 32,561. This procedure i s repeated f o r ages 35 and 45 i n order to ob t a i n an e n t i r e s e r i e s of women i n f i v e year age groups encompassing the c h i l d b e a r i n g ages. The r e s u l t s of t h i s i n t e r p o l a t i o n method are presented i n Appendix A, f o r a l l cases i n which the presented f i g u r e s r e q u i r e d reaggregation and i n which the r e q u i s i t e informa-t i o n was given. When d e a l i n g w i t h census data covering a long time span, problems of data accuracy and data c o m p a r a b i l i t y emerge, p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h the inf o r m a t i o n provided i n the nineteenth Century censuses. This chapter has attempted to describe the problems, and to de l i n e a t e the adjustments t h a t were made, i n the data r e l a t e d to b i r t h s , age-sex d i s t r i b u t i o n and m a r i t a l s t a t u s d i s t r i b u t i o n . 43 Footnotes "'"Beginning i n 1956, quinquennial censuses have been taken. 2 In 1851-52, censuses were taken by the provinces of Nova •Scotia and New Brunswick. However, data provided were very scant and aggregated. 3 Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s are not d e a l t w i t h s p e c i f i c a l l y here. However, data f o r these areas are i n c l u d e d i n the Canadian averages, as are data f o r unenumerated provinces, except Newfoundland, from 1881 onwards. 4 Quebec d i d not enter the r e g i s t r a t i o n system u n t i l 1926 and Newfoundland entered i n 1949, upon j o i n i n g Confederation. However, even today, the i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e f o r Newfoundland i s l i m i t e d . 5 The date of the census v a r i e d : i n 1871-1901, the census was taken i n A p r i l ; the 1851-5 2 Census was taken i n January, 185 2; the Census of 1911 occurred i n June. The date of the 1861 Census could not be obtained. ^The procedure of d i v i d i n g the estimates of b i r t h s f o r two f i v e - y e a r periods by ten i n order to o b t a i n an annual estimate i s not wholly j u s t i f i a b l e as i t assumes t h a t b i r t h s are d i s t r i b u t e d i n l i n e a r fashion throughout the ten-year p e r i o d . However, f o r the purposes of subsequent analyses, i t was necessary to estimate annual b i r t h s f o r each census year. Therefore, i n the handling of m o r t a l i t y , the method used here does not d i f f e r from the procedures used by K e y f i t z (1950) or H e n r i p i n (1972) . g As i s discussed l a t e r , H e n r i p i n (19 72) made c o r r e c t i o n s f o r underenumeration at ages 5-9. 9 V i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n i n f o r m a t i o n f o r 1921 d i d not i n c l u d e Quebec. The estimate provided by Henripin (1972:372) of b i r t h s i n Quebec i n 1921 was borrowed. "^These f i g u r e s were c a l c u l a t e d from s t a t i s t i c s given i n the 1921 Census of Canada (v. 2, t a b l e 9). "'""'"Total west i n c l u d e d the four western provinces and the northern t e r r i t o r i e s . 12 Persons of unstated age were d i s t r i b u t e d p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y i n t o the given age c a t e g o r i e s . CHAPTER I I I FOUR STAGES OF FERTILITY IN CANADA In order to a t t a i n a very broad p i c t u r e of the l e v e l and trends of Canadian f e r t i l i t y throughout the p e r i o d from 1851 to 1971, two general measures of f e r t i l i t y were constructed: the crude b i r t h r a t e , the t o t a l number of b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g per 1000 t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , and the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , the t o t a l number of b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g per 1000 t o t a l women i n the c h i l d b e a r i n g ages of 15-49. These rates are presented i n Table VII and p i c t u r e d i n Graph 1. I t can be seen th a t the o v e r a l l t r e n d of f e r t i l i t y f o r the pe r i o d from 1851 to 19 71 was one of marked d e c l i n e . The course of Canadian f e r t i l i t y r e v e a ls a t r a n s i t i o n from i n i t i a l l y high rates to low rates i n 19 71, w i t h a d e c l i n e i n the magnitude of approximately 65 percent from the 1851 l e v e l of the crude b i r t h rate and the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . Although the d e c l i n e was s u b s t a n t i a l , i t was not continuous throughout the e n t i r e p e r i o d . I t i s t h i s unevenness i n the trend of d e c l i n e that suggests the u t i l i t y of a stage framework i n d e s c r i b i n g the Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . Four stages of f e r t i l i t y i n Canada can be i d e n t i f i e d , embracing the years 1851-1891, 1891-1921, 4 4 45 Table VII Crude B i r t h Rates and General F e r t i l i t y Rates: L e v e l and Percent Change. Canada, 1 1851-1971 Crude B i r t h Percent General F e r t i l i t y Percent Year Rate Change Rate Change 1851 2 46.8 - 206.5 1861 3 41.7 -10.9 179.2 -13.2 1871 4 39. 2 -6.0 164.7 -8.1 1881 35. 3 -9.9 144.3 -12.4 1891 32. 4 -8.2 131.4 -8.9 1901 32. 9 + 1.5 133.4 +1.5 1911 31.1 -5.5 129.9 -2.6 1921 31. 2 + 0.3 128.1 -1.4 1931 24.7 -20. 8 99.5 -22.3 1941 22.9 -7.3 89.1 -10.5 1951 5 27. 2 + 18.8 110.1 +23.6 1961 5 26.0 -4.4 112.7 +2.4 1971 5 16.8 -35.4 68.6 -39.1 1851-1891 -30. 8 -36.4 1891-1921 -3.7 -2.5 1921-1961 -16.7 -12.0 1961-1971 -35.4 -38. 7 1851-1971 -64.1 -66. 8 d e f e r s to present area of Canada, ex c l u d i n g Newfoundland, unless otherwise s t a t e d • 2 R e f e r s to Upper Canada (Ontario) and Lower Canada (Quebec) 3 R e f e r s to Upper Canada, Lower Canada, and Nova S c o t i a . 4 R e f e r s to Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 5 I n c l u d e s Newfoundland. Sources: Data on b i r t h s were taken from the est i m a t i o n s performed i n Chapter I I and V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1971 ( B i r t h s , t a b l e 5). Data on t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n and females aged 15-49 were taken from the f o l l o w i n g census s t a t i s t i c s . Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 1, appendices 5 and 6, t a b l e 4); 1861 (v. 1, General A b s t r a c t of Ages); 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 9 ), 1971 (cat. 92-715, t a b l e 7). 46 2-Oc --l8o-H O - -* 6 o . . I4O_-Vio . . Mo - -^Oo 8o lo 6o \ \ \ \ J I I L J I I I I I J L ^8) \Sit W3| 1<>SI »<»H i<* 0 | i ^H l<Wt »<5f4\ TSO 4s -4o --SS 3o is l o 10 4- 5-y ^ 1921-1961, and 1961-1971. Each of these stages i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a p a r t i c u l a r average l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y and a p a r t i c u l a r trend of f e r t i l i t y change. The s e l e c t i o n of the stages was based on the observed data and the trends embodied t h e r e i n . Three p r i n c i p l e s were used i n the s e l e c t i o n : m i n i m i z a t i o n of the number of stages, homogeniety i n l e v e l and/or trend w i t h i n a stage, and de-emphasis of short-term f l u c t u a t i o n . A c e r t a i n amount of s u b j e c t i v e judgment was i n v o l v e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the d e l i n e a t i o n of the t h i r d stage. One could sub-divide the t h i r d stage i n t o two, 1921-1941 and 1941-1961. However, the d e c i s i o n was made not to sub-divide, on the b a s i s of the f i r s t and t h i r d p r i n c i p l e s . Underlying the examination of the l e v e l s and trends of Canadian f e r t i l i t y , i n the context of a stage framework, are the b a s i c p r o p o s i t i o n s of the theory of demographic transition"'" as i t r e l a t e s to f e r t i l i t y change i n western 2 populations. Demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory o f f e r s a d e s c r i p t i v e and explanatory account of f e r t i l i t y change. At the broadest l e v e l , the explanation views f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s and trends as the product of s o c i a l and economic f a c t o r s . Pre-modern f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s are high, as are m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s , although research documenting European t r a n s i t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t f e r t i l i t y may be c o n t r o l l e d to some extent (Demeny, 1968; Leasure, 1963; L i v i - B a c c i , 19 71). High f e r t i l i t y r e s u l t s from a complex of 48 f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p r e - i n d u s t r i a l s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e . C h i l d r e n are economically advantageous as they c o n t r i b u t e to a g r i c u l t u r a l production at young ages and f u n c t i o n as a source of s e c u r i t y f o r aged parents. On the other hand, the costs of c h i l d r e a r i n g are s m a l l , p a r t i c u l a r l y the costs of education. The economic u t i l i t y of c h i l d r e n i s b u t t r e s s e d by a system of s o c i a l b e l i e f s t h a t r e i n f o r c e s the value of c h i l d r e n . Modernization, or socioeconomic development, operates to lower f e r t i l i t y by transforming the s o c i a l s t r u c t u r a l elements conducive to the production of large numbers of c h i l d r e n . Decreasing m o r t a l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , serves to reduce f e r t i l i t y by making "insurance" b i r t h s l e s s necessary. U r b a n i z a t i o n , one f a c e t of modernization, decreases the productive u t i l i t y of c h i l d r e n . The cost of c h i l d r e a r i n g r i s e s i n an urban environment, as l e v e l s of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment increase. Economic development a l t e r s the s t r u c t u r e of production by de-emphasizing the f a m i l y as a production u n i t , by f o s t e r i n g an impersonal system of job a l l o c a t i o n , and by c r e a t i n g economic r o l e s f o r women outside the home. As a r e s u l t , o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r economic m o b i l i t y are enhanced and can be best taken advantage of w i t h a small f a m i l y (Coale and Hoover, 1958:11). In other words, economic development o f f e r s goals t h a t compete w i t h large numbers of c h i l d r e n . L a s t l y , economic modernization creates a transformed value s t r u c t u r e , w i t h an emphasis on i n d i v i d u a l i s m , achievement, and secularism. The transformation i n values i s f a c i l i t a t e d by the increased l e v e l s of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment that an i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y r e q u i r e s . Thus, the motiv a t i o n to c o n t r o l f e r t i l i t y i s viewed as stemming from the s o c i a l and economic concomitants of 3 modernization. However, the tim i n g and pace of sustained f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e need not correspond to any s p e c i f i c l e v e l of s o c i a l and economic development. The path of f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i s a complex one; s o c i e t i e s do not respond uniformly to given s t i m u l i . The p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r r e l a t i o n -ships among the elements of the p r e - i n d u s t r i a l s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e cannot be ignored. As Coale (19 73) has s t a t e d , pre-modern s o c i e t i e s vary i n the extent to which they are amenable to f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n . I t i s suggested t h a t t h i s v a r i a t i o n i s r e l a t e d to c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s . D i f f e r e n c e s i n pre-modern receptiveness lead to v a r i a t i o n s i n the timing and speed of f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n once modernization com-mences. A l s o , as Davis (19 63) has pointed out, demographic response to modernization may take many forms, f e r t i l i t y r e duction being only one. F i r s t Stage Looking at the f i r s t stage of f e r t i l i t y , from 1851 to 1891/ i t can be observed t h a t the l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y at the beginning of t h i s p e r i o d was high: the crude b i r t h rate approached 47 b i r t h s per 1000 t o t a l population and the 50 general f e r t i l i t y r a t e exceeded 200 b i r t h s per 1000 women aged 15-49. Despite these high r a t e s , there i s no guarantee t h a t the f e r t i l i t y l e v e l i n 1851 was the highest o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n the Canadian experience. I t i s p o s s i b l e that Canadian f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e commenced p r i o r to the mid-nineteenth Century. Henripin's (1972:366) crude b i r t h rate estimates f o r present-day Ontario and Quebec suggest t h a t reductions d i d occur before 1851. However, as discussed i n the previous chapter, H e n r i p i n 1 s estimates tend to be rat h e r high. Therefore, a degree of u n c e r t a i n t y e x i s t s i n terms of the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the upper l i m i t of Canadian f e r t i l i t y . As a r e s u l t , i t i s not p o s s i b l e to p i n p o i n t the decade of i n i t i a l , sustained d e c l i n e i n Canadian f e r t i l i t y . As Table V I I i n d i c a t e s , the percent d e c l i n e i n rat e i n the decade 1851-19 61 was rat h e r s u b s t a n t i a l , i n the range of 11 to 13 percent. Reductions may have occurred e a r l i e r and the d e c l i n e r e g i s t e r e d between 1851 and 1861 merely r e f l e c t a co n t i n u a t i o n of a previously-begun d e c l i n e . In terms of i n i t i a l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and ti m i n g of d e c l i n e , the s a f e s t statement t h a t may be made i s the i n i t i a l , p r e - d e c l i n e l e v e l i n Canada was at l e a s t as high as t h a t r e g i s t e r e d i n 1851 and t h a t d e c l i n e was w e l l on i t s way by 1861. One d e f i n i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the f i r s t f e r t i l i t y stage i s the high l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y experienced. A second major c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i s i n terms of trend. In the p e r i o d from 1851 t o 1891, Canadian f e r t i l i t y underwent a marked 51 d e c l i n e , w i t h r a t e s f a l l i n g i n excess of 30 percent. The d e c l i n e was continuous throughout the p e r i o d , w i t h no one decade accounting f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t l y l a r g e r p o r t i o n of the d e c l i n e than any other decade. This trend of c o n t i n u a l d e c l i n e ended abruptly i n 1891, s i g n a l l i n g the termination of the f i r s t f e r t i l i t y p e r i o d . In order to b e t t e r understand why Canadian f e r t i l i t y i n the l a t t e r h a l f of the nineteenth Century was i n i t i a l l y high and underwent s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n , i t i s necessary to look at s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s during the p e r i o d . In the beginning of t h i s p e r i o d , Canada, then c a l l e d B r i t i s h North America, was a colony of B r i t a i n , w i t h an economy based on primary product e x t r a c t i o n and e x p o r t a t i o n . A number of changes i n economic o r g a n i z a t i o n occurred during t h i s p e r i o d , changes t h a t can best be viewed i n the context of Canada's r o l e as exporter of raw m a t e r i a l s and the economic dependency thus engendered. In the 1850's, B r i t a i n d i s c o n t i n u e d the p r a c t i c e of c o l o n i a l preference i n trade arrangements and, thus, forced B r i t i s h North America to a l t e r i t s system of economic o r g a n i z a t i o n i n the l i g h t of i n t e r n a t i o n a l competition. The key elements of economic r e -o r g a n i z a t i o n were the r a i l w a y and the t a r i f f (Easterbrook and A i t k e n , 1967:355). The c o n s t r u c t i o n of the t r u n k - l i n e r a i l w a y s was p a r t i c u l a r l y s i g n i f i c a n t as i t marked the emergence of i n d u s t r i a l technology i n t o Canada. Thus, the beginning of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n Canada occurred during 52 t h i s f i r s t stage of f e r t i l i t y . Increased t a r i f f s on manufactured goods, i n s t i t u t e d so as to finance r a i l w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n , met w i t h unfavourable r e a c t i o n from the Americans who c a n c e l l e d the R e c i p r o c i t y Treaty of 1854. This changing economic cli m a t e had p o l i t i c a l repercussions. E x t e r n a l f o r c e s , namely the a c t i o n s of the B r i t i s h and the Americans, had created the need f o r change i n a s o c i e t y t h a t had based i t s economy on the e x p o r t a t i o n of primary products, l e a v i n g i t s e l f vulnerable t o outside market c o n d i t i o n s and the p o l i c i e s of other c o u n t r i e s . S p e c i f i c problems thus i n c u r r e d , such as the f i n a n c i n g of the r a i l w a y s and the market d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h the United S t a t e s , and the f e a r of American t e r r i t o r i a l expansion, were among the f a c t o r s t h a t l e d to the Confederation of Canada i n 1867. Thus, the p e r i o d from the mid-nineteenth Century to the time of Confederation was marked by s i g n i f i c a n t change i n economic and p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s i n Canada. The emergence of i n d u s t r y and the development of an independent Canada were perhaps the most s i g n i f i c a n t developments. I t i s noteworthy th a t these changes were generated by forces e x t e r n a l to Canada, or were Canadian r e a c t i o n s t o outside i n f l u e n c e s . The f a c t that the nexus of change was not i n t e r n a l l y propagated suggests nineteenth Century Canada was not an i n n o v a t i v e s o c i e t y : she reacted to change r a t h e r than i n i t i a t e d i t . 53 The p e r i o d iirariediately a f t e r Confederation witnessed the development of many f a c t o r s upon which an i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y would be based. The completion of the i n t e r -c o n t i n e n t a l r a i l w a y i n 1885 provided a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and communication l i n k from coast to coast. The " N a t i o n a l P o l i c y " was i n s t i t u t e d i n an e f f o r t to f a c i l i t a t e i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . The core elements of the " N a t i o n a l P o l i c y " were: c o n t i n e n t a l expansion, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n improvements to a i d expansion, emphasis on a few s t a p l e exports designed f o r European markets, development of secondary i n d u s t r y and f i n a n c e , and increased p r o t e c t i v e t a r i f f s (Easterbrook and A i t k e n , 1967:388). Other p o l i c i e s were designed to expand the domestic market and to encourage investment of f o r e i g n c a p i t a l ( F i r e s t o n e , 1969: 105) . I t i s important to keep i n mind, however, the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the s o c i e t y upon which these new programmes were launched. At the time of the f i r s t census a f t e r Confederation, i n 18 71, the population was l a r g e l y r u r a l , w i t h only approximately 18 percent of the population l i v i n g i n urban areas, as shown i n Table V I I I . S t a t i s t i c s on occupational d i s t r i b u t i o n i n 1871 i n d i c a t e that 51 percent of the economically a c t i v e population was engaged i n farming, lumbering and f i s h i n g , 13 percent i n manufacturing and h a n d i c r a f t s , 18 percent i n c o n s t r u c t i o n and u n s k i l l e d labour, and 18 percent i n s e r v i c e occupations (Report of 54 Table V I I I Percent of Population Urban. Canada, 2 1851-1891 1851 13.1 1861 15.8 1871 18. 3 1881 23.3 1891 29. 8 *Urban population defined as the population r e s i d i n g i n incorporated c i t i e s , towns, and v i l l a g e s of 1,00 0 or more. 2Excludes Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Source: Stone (1967:29). the Royal Commission on Dominion-Provincial R e l a t i o n s , 1940:22). Therefore, the economy was b a s i c a l l y a g r a r i a n . The manufacturing sec t o r was small and i t has been pointed out t h a t i t had an " a g r i c u l t u r a l " nature, w i t h concentration on b l a c k s m i t h i n g , h a n d i c r a f t s , and a g r i c u l t u r a l implements (Clement, 1975:69). Persons i n the s e r v i c e occupations were predominantly domestic servants, a feature c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of n o n - i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s . However, the n o t - n e g l i b l e p r o p o r t i o n i n v o l v e d i n c o n s t r u c t i o n , a r e f l e c t i o n of r a i l w a y b u i l d i n g , suggests the beginning of change i n an a g r a r i a n -based economic s t r u c t u r e . Thus, Canadian s o c i e t y i n the two i n i t i a l decades of t h i s f i r s t stage (and e a r l i e r ) was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a system of economic o r g a n i z a t i o n conducive to high f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s . Canada was p r i m a r i l y a r u r a l s o c i e t y and, as such, provided an environment i n which the production of c h i l d r e n i n large numbers was both economically f e a s i b l e and d e s i r a b l e . The manufacturing sec t o r was so small and so c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a g r i c u l t u r a l p u r s u i t s t h a t i t s existence probably posed l i t t l e t h r e a t to the a g r a r i a n s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e and the values and behaviour embodied t h e r e i n . Yet, change was o c c u r r i n g , as discussed above, and that change was r e f l e c t e d i n d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y . The d e c l i n e i n the crude b i r t h rate i n the twenty years between 1851 and 1871 was s u b s t a n t i a l , more than 7 p o i n t s . However, i t w i l l be noted t h a t d e c l i n e commenced p r i o r to the l a r g e - s c a l e i n t r o d u c t i o n of i n d u s t r y i n t o Canada and while Canada was overwhelmingly a r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n . The f i n d i n g of s u b s t a n t i a l f e r t i l i t y r e d uction p r i o r to s i g n i f i c a n t development of the i n d u s t r i a l and urban s e c t o r i n western s o c i e t i e s i s not a new one (Coale, 1969:18). This f i n d i n g i n the Canadian case r e i n f o r c e s the general c o n c l u s i o n that the commencement of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e need not be dependent upon any s p e c i f i c l e v e l of economic or s o c i a l development (van de Walle and Knodel, 19 6 7), although sustained r e d u c t i o n may be dependent upon i n c r e a s i n g development. The n o n - i n d u s t r i a l character of Canada at the time of Confederation r e s u l t e d from a number of f a c t o r s . Important was the i n i t i a l raison d'etre of the B r i t i s h North American c o l o n i e s : p r o v i d e r s of raw m a t e r i a l s f o r European i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . As a r e s u l t , commercial or merchant 56 i n t e r e s t s had been dominant i n Canada and competed w i t h the e a r l y i n d u s t r i a l i n t e r e s t s , o p e r a t i n g to hamper the development of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , as merchant c a p i t a l i s o r i e n t e d toward quick e x t r a c t i o n r a t h e r than i n d u s t r i a l p rocessing (Clement, 1975:95). The geography of Canada a l s o played a r o l e as the development of i n d u s t r i a l c a p i t a l r e q u i r e s low t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . Despite these b a r r i e r s , a c e r t a i n degree of economic growth c h a r a c t e r i z e d the l a s t quarter of the nineteenth Century, even i n the face of a general depression t h a t began i n 1873, l a s t i n g 23 years. The depression can be a t t r i b u t e d to unfavourable economic c o n d i t i o n s overseas and d e c l i n i n g p r i c e s f o r Canadian exports. Easterbrook and A i t k e n (1967:396) p o i n t out t h a t the tempo of American development, which d i v e r t e d c a p i t a l and population away from Canada, played a r o l e a l s o . Nevertheless, Canada made some gains i n economic development w i t h , f o r example, Gross N a t i o n a l Product ( i n constant d o l l a r s ) i n c r e a s i n g 76.1 percent per c a p i t a i n the p e r i o d from 1867 to 1896 ( F i r e -stone, 1969:106). A l s o , the percent of the population urban grew to n e a r l y 30 percent i n 1891, as shown i n Table V I I I . This growth i n economic output and u r b a n i z a t i o n was accompanied by f u r t h e r d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y . The crude b i r t h rate f e l l another 7 p o i n t s between 1871 and 1891. Despite the gains r e g i s t e r e d i n economic development, the expectations of the founders of Confederation had been disappointed. Of p a r t i c u l a r concern was the issue of imrnigration. In the second h a l f of the nineteenth Century (and l a t e r ) , Canada attempted to assure h e r s e l f a la r g e and steady volume of immigrants. The view of the day was t h a t i n d u s t r i a l development was dependent upon a large p o pulation and a growing domestic market (Macdonald, 1966: 30). R e f l e c t i n g t h i s view, the Canadian government i n s t i t u t e d a number of p o l i c i e s aimed at encouraging immigration. Chief among these was extensive a d v e r t i s i n g i n p r e f e r r e d c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y Great B r i t a i n . An a s s i s t e d passage system was a l s o o p e r a t i v e , s t r u c t u r e d to a t t r a c t a g r i c u l t u r a l labourers and domestic servants. Despite such a c t i o n s , the number of immigrants e n t e r i n g Canada was not encouraging. Even more alarming, from the Canadian p o i n t of view, was the f a c t of emigration. In the decades from 1861 to 1891, the number of out-migrants surpassed the number of immigrants, r e s u l t i n g i n negative net mi g r a t i o n ( K e y f i t z , 1950:51). As the Canadian a u t h o r i t i e s d i d not keep records of the out-migrants, i t i s not p o s s i b l e to a s c e r t a i n who, i n f a c t , was l e a v i n g Canada. I t i s c e r t a i n though, t h a t Canadian-born were among the out-migrants, as United States census f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e a f a i r l y l a r g e number of Canadian-born r e s i d e n t s (Kalbach and McVey, 1971:43). Nineteenth Century census s t a t i s t i c s on. place of b i r t h , as shown i n Table IX, r e f l e c t Canada's growing lack 58 Table IX Foreign-Born Population of Canada, 1851-1891 Percent B r i t i s h Number Percent of of T o t a l Foreign-Born T o t a l P o p u lation Foreign-Born 18511 487,218 26.4 84. 5 1861 2 608,762 21.5 83.7 1871 3 585,230 16.2 83. 0 i s s i 1 ' 602,063 14.1 78. 0 1891 4 628,492 13. 3 73.8 1 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada and Lower Canada. 2 I n c l u d e s Upper Canada, Lower Canada, and Nova S c o t i a . 3 I n c l u d e s Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a , and New Brunswick. ^Includes Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a , New Brunswick, P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , Manitoba and B r i t i s h Columbia. 5 I n c l u d e s E n g l i s h , Welsh, S c o t t i s h and I r i s h . Sources: Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 2, t a b l e 3); 1861 (Abstract of O r i g i n s ) ; 1871 (v. 1, t a b l e 4); 1881 (v. 4, t a b l e D); 1891 (v. 4, t a b l e D). of a t t r a c t i o n f o r immigrants. The percent foreign-born (born outside the boundaries of present-day Canada) was 26.4 percent i n 1851, but only 13.3 percent i n 1891. However, the provinces shared unequally i n the d e c l i n i n g percent foreign-born as seen i n Table X. The provinces of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes experienced d e c l i n i n g percentages foreign-born during t h i s p e r i o d whereas the provinces of B r i t i s h Columbia and Manitoba r e g i s t e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t gains. Therefore, although i n the l a t t e r years 59 Table X Percent Foreign-Born, by Province, 1871-1891 1871 1881 1891 P.E.I. 8.1 5.9 Nova S c o t i a 7.5 5.9 5.9 New Brunswick 13.1 9.6 6.9 Quebec 6.5 5.6 5.5 Ontario 27.2 22.5 19. 2 Manitoba 21. 3 29. 2 B. C. 29.3 42. 1 Sources: Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 2, t a b l e 3); 1861 (Abstract of O r i g i n s ) ; 1871 (v. 1, t a b l e 4); 1881 (v. 4, t a b l e D); 1891 (v. 4, t a b l e D). of the nineteenth Century, Canada, as a whole, was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a decreasing percentage foreign-born, there was a western s h i f t i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the foreign-born p o p u l a t i o n . The foreign-born population i n the nineteenth Century was predominantly of B r i t i s h o r i g i n , although the percentage B r i t i s h d e c l i n e d somewhat from 1851 t o 1891, as shown i n Table IX. That the composition of the foreign-born p o p u l a t i o n remained B r i t i s h i n o r i g i n was i n keeping w i t h the immigration aims of English-speaking Canada. However, many of the immigrants were not of the type d e s i r e d by Canada: persons of the a g r i c u l t u r a l c l a s s e s . In p a r t , t h i s s i t u a t i o n r e f l e c t e d the opposing aims of migration as perceived by the sender s o c i e t y , Great B r i t a i n , and the 60 r e c e i v e r s o c i e t y , Canada. Canada sought to encourage a g r i c u l t u r i s t s and to bar out "undesirables" (Magrath, 1910:71). B r i t a i n , on the other hand, viewed emigration as one means of r i d d i n g h e r s e l f of burdensome elements (Kalbach, 1970:10). The r e s u l t was t h a t Canada, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the years immediately f o l l o w i n g Confedera-t i o n to the end of the nineteenth Century, r e c e i v e d unemployed craftsmen and u n s k i l l e d labourers from urban B r i t a i n (Macdonald, 1966:92). The poor, the unemployed, and the d e s t i t u t e came to Canada, aided by B r i t i s h c h a r i t a b l e o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n many cases. M i g r a t i o n and' u r b a n i z a t i o n were r e l a t e d forces i n Canada during t h i s p e r i o d . I t appears t h a t many of the foreign-born r e s i d e d i n urban centres i n Canada. The Mayor of Toronto, i n a sworn statement to the Royal Commission on the R e l a t i o n s of Labor and C a p i t a l i n Canada, 1889, s a i d t h a t one of the causes of poverty i n that c i t y was: the sending out to t h i s country of people who are unsuited to make a l i v i n g here - the sending out of great numbers of people who have got the poor-house t a i n t , and who w i l l never work or do any good anywhere. (quoted i n Cross, 1974:198) The is s u e of "poor-house t a i n t " a side, i t seems t h a t Canada was r e c e i v i n g immigrants from urban backgrounds and that these people tended to remain i n urban centres when i n Canada. In c o n t r a s t , out-migration of Canadian-born, p a r t i c u l a r l y from Quebec, was i n larg e p a r t from r u r a l areas (Henripin and Peron, 1972:225). Therefore, the 61 growing urban population i n nineteenth Century Canada can be p a r t i a l l y accounted f o r by the d i f f e r e n t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the in-migrants and the out-migrants. The d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y of the f i r s t stage must be viewed, at l e a s t i n p a r t , i n the l i g h t of t h i s m i g r a t i o n -determined s h i f t i n population composition. Given r u r a l -urban d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y performance, i t can be suggested t h a t an i n - m i g r a t i o n of persons of urban back-ground coupled w i t h an out-migration of persons from r u r a l areas e x e r t s a f e r t i l i t y - l o w e r i n g e f f e c t , independent of any i n t e r n a l l y - g e n e r a t e d changes conducive to lowered f e r t i l i t y . A l s o , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t urban values were introduced i n t o Canadian s o c i e t y along w i t h the urban immigrants. The growing urban po p u l a t i o n i n Canada was not only a product of d i f f e r e n t i a l m i g r a t i o n , but a l s o of i n c r e a s i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , which e x e r t s a more d i r e c t e f f e c t on reducing f e r t i l i t y . In 1870, there were 38,89 8 manufacturing establishments, employing 181,6 79 people, 13 percent of the labour f o r c e , or an average of 4.7 persons per establishment. The average c a p i t a l investment of these establishments was $1,900 (Clement, 1975:69). Information provided i n the 1891 Census re v e a l s t h a t , by that year, the number of i n d u s t r i a l establishments had n e a r l y doubled to 75,968, employing 370,256 persons, or 23 percent of the labour f o r c e . Average c a p i t a l investment was $2,30 0. Manufacturing was beginning to lose i t s " r u r a l " character. 62 Twenty-seven percent of the i n d u s t r i a l employees worked i n 4 establishments i n nine major c i t i e s . In these establishments, the average number of persons employed was 5 12 per establishment. The urban establishments, which had an average c a p i t a l investment of $5,900, accounted f o r approximately 30 percent of t o t a l c a p i t a l investment. Coupled w i t h t h i s growth i n i n d u s t r y was a d e c l i n e i n the percent of a g r i c u l t u r a l occupations. Nevertheless, the country remained h i g h l y a g r i c u l t u r a l i n 1891, w i t h 45.8 percent of a l l occupations designated as a g r i c u l t u r a l . One f a c e t of the changing occupational s t r u c t u r e of Canada during t h i s p e r i o d concerns the i n c r e a s i n g employment of women i n the p a i d labour force. The Censuses of 1871 and 1881 d i d not p u b l i s h s t a t i s t i c s on the t o t a l labour force p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women, except to i n d i c a t e 39,499 female domestic servants i n 1871 and 49,345 female domestic servants and 3,768 female school teachers i n 1881. The 1881 f i g u r e s account f o r 4 percent of the t o t a l adult female p o p u l a t i o n over age 15, although i t i s c e r t a i n that t h i s f i g u r e i s an underestimate. By 1891, the number of employed women was 195,990, 13 percent of t o t a l women aged over 15 and 12.2 percent of the t o t a l labour f o r c e . By and l a r g e , two o c c u p a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s encompassed the female working population i n 1891, domestic s e r v i c e which employed 46.6 percent of a l l working women, and manufacturing which employed 31.9 percent. 63 As t o the m a r i t a l status of the female working p o p u l a t i o n , i t seems l i k e l y t h a t most of the women were unmarried, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the case of domestic servants. In terms of the women employed i n manufacturing, the matter i s l e s s c e r t a i n . The Royal Commission of 1882, found few married women working i n the f a c t o r i e s i n v e s t i g a t e d , l e s s than 3 percent of the female work force. On the other hand, an a r t i c l e w r i t t e n i n the Toronto Globe i n 1881 suggested that Canadian f a c t o r i e s i n s t i t u t e funds t o allow women "to cease work f o r a s u f f i c i e n t l y long time before and a f t e r the b i r t h of t h e i r c h i l d r e n to prevent i n j u r y to the c o n s t i t u t i o n of mother or i n f a n t " (quoted i n Cross, 19 74:75). I t seems l i k e l y t h a t some married women d i d work, probably out of economic n e c e s s i t y . Evidence from the Royal Commission on the R e l a t i o n s of Labor and C a p i t a l i n Canada, 1889, suggests t h a t economic co n d i t i o n s may r e a d i l y have fo r c e d married women i n t o the labour f o r c e . One boot and shoe maker made the f o l l o w i n g statement concerning the e f f e c t s of mechanization: Q. Has the i n t r o d u c t i o n of machinery i n the boot and shoe trade r e s u l t e d i n a lowering of wages? A. Yes; and t h a t i s the reason that I came here, before t h i s Commission to say t h a t our wages have been lowered, and not only the wages but the work has decreased, inasmuch as today one machine most c e r t a i n l y takes the p l a c e , on an average, of f i v e or s i x men. (quoted i n Cross, 1974:92) The same Commission heard the testimony of a Nova S c o t i a 64 miner whose employer deducted v a r y i n g amounts f o r r e n t , c o a l , taxes, e t c . so t h a t each month h i s deductions e q u a l l e d h i s earnings, l e a v i n g him w i t h no cash, regardless of monthly f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the amount he earned (Cross, 19 74: 85). The Inspector of F a c t o r i e s i n Ontario reported r e c e i v i n g the f o l l o w i n g l e t t e r i n 189 2 from a 12 year o l d g i r l : Dear S i r : I take the p r i v i l e g e of asking your consent, i f you w i l l k i n d l y allow me to go t o work. I have no f a t h e r , and mother has worked and supported us f o r s i x years. Her h e a l t h i s f a i l i n g and she cannot stand such hard l a b o r any more.... (quoted i n Cross, 1974:99-100). These examples p o i n t out that the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of e a r l y i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y , such as i n c r e a s e d mechanization, unscrupulous employers, death and i l l n e s s , and the absence of s o c i a l insurance may have been f a c t o r s operating to force married and widowed women and c h i l d r e n i n t o the labour f o r c e . These same f a c t o r s may have been res p o n s i b l e f o r the d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y experienced i n Canada during t h i s p e r i o d , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h i n the growing urban pop u l a t i o n . Adverse s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r the working c l a s s e s of the urban cen t e r s , may have exerted a strong motivation i n favour of l i m i t i n g f e r t i l i t y . Another c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the nineteenth Century labour force was the e x i s t e n c e of c h i l d labourers. The c o n d i t i o n s of c h i l d labour were a major concern of the Royal Commission i n 1889, although the incidence of i n d u s t r i a l 65 c h i l d labour was not high, w i t h , f o r example, i n 1891, 26,552 boys and g i r l s below 16 years of age, or 7.2 percent of a l l i n d u s t r i a l employees or approximately 4 percent of c h i l d r e n aged 10-16, employed i n i n d u s t r i a l establishments. Nevertheless, the f a c t of c h i l d employment i s important. I t suggests t h a t c h i l d r e n continued t o f u n c t i o n i n an economically productive r o l e i n the e a r l y stages of the t r a n s i t i o n to an i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y . The f a c t t h a t c h i l d r e n were p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t o r s to f a m i l y earnings probably operated as a f a c t o r p l a c i n g p o s i t i v e v a l u a t i o n on c h i l d r e n , and, i n t h a t way, functioned to keep f e r t i l i t y r a tes as high as they were. Thus, c h i l d employment may have operated as a counterpressure against the other f a c t o r s determinant of lowered f e r t i l i t y . A secondary e f f e c t of the incidence and c o n d i t i o n s of c h i l d labour was t h a t i t i n t e n s i f i e d p u b l i c concern w i t h the value and r o l e of education. Census f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e that approximately one-half of c h i l d r e n between the ages of 4 and 15 were e n r o l l e d i n schools i n 1851. By 1881, the f i g u r e increased t o approximately 73 percent. However, enrollment f i g u r e s are somewhat d e c e i v i n g , as a c t u a l attendance tended to be i r r e g u l a r and spasmodic at mid-century. Between 1870 and 19 00, the provinces took measures making s c h o o l i n g compulsory. Ontario l e d i n t h i s regard, enacting l e g i s l a t i o n which r e q u i r e d parents, by t h r e a t of pen a l t y , to have c h i l d r e n between the ages of 7 and 12 attend school f o r a minimum of four months per year ( P h i l l i p s , 1957:187). The r o l e of education was viewed i n two ways i n nineteenth Century s o c i e t y . On the one hand, the economic fun c t i o n s of education were emphasized, w i t h the argument that increased education was a p r e r e q u i s i t e of an i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y . For example, the Royal Commission of 18 82 s t a t e d "a demand i s gai n i n g f o r i n t e l l i g e n t and educated l a b o r i n our m i l l s and f a c t o r i e s " (Lawr and Gidney, 1973:66). On the other hand, the moral content and consequences of education proved to be a contentious i s s u e . The separation of church and s t a t e and denominationalism vs. non-denominationalism were matters causing considerable c o n f l i c t i n Canada at t h i s time. I t has been argued ( F i r e s t o n e , 1969:181) t h a t the st r u g g l e s over education, i n i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h r e l i g i o n , served to r e t a r d the development of education i n Canada. The issues of i r r e g u l a r attendance, non-attendance, e t c . , were pushed to the back. This argument has a c e r t a i n v a l i d i t y as i t was only l a t e i n the nineteenth Century, when i n d u s t r i a l employment made c h i l d workers v i s i b l e , the con d i t i o n s of t h e i r labour suspect, and when the economic b e n e f i t s of an educated labour force became recognized, t h a t attempts were made to insure that c h i l d r e n attend school r e g u l a r l y and f o r a longer time. As such, Canadian educa-t i o n lagged behind t h a t of the United States ( F i r e s t o n e , 1969:181). A l s o , the c o n f l i c t engendered concerning the r o l e of r e l i g i o n i n education serves t o h i g h l i g h t the important place t h a t r e l i g i o n h e l d i n the minds of nine-teenth Century Canadians. I t i s p o s s i b l e that the r e l i g i o u s i t y of Canadians, given the d i c t a t e s of the C h r i s t i a n r e l i g i o n , may have been a f a c t o r keeping f e r t i l i t y high and counteracting pressures f o r d e c l i n e . S i m i l a r l y , the r e l i g i o u s i n p u t i n education may have hampered the development of s e c u l a r thought, the usual concomitant of increased education. I t could be s a i d t h a t Canada, during the p e r i o d from 1851 to 1891, was a s o c i e t y e x i s t i n g i n a tension between the forces of change, on the one hand, and the forces of i n e r t i a , on the other. In the e a r l y p a r t of the p e r i o d , as a colony, Canada's r o l e was one of s u p p l i e r of raw m a t e r i a l s f o r B r i t i s h i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n was introduced i n t o Canada only a f t e r B r i t a i n f orced Canada's hand. Even so, Canada continued to perceive h e r s e l f i n her former r o l e , w i t h i n d u s t r i a l technology introduced by Canada, i n r a i l w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n an e f f o r t to a llow h e r s e l f to continue i n that r o l e . I t w i l l be remembered that one of the core elements of the " N a t i o n a l P o l i c y " was concen t r a t i o n on a few s t a p l e s f o r export. A l s o , the i n t e r e s t s of the merchant c a p i t a l i s t s perpetuated t h i s course of a c t i o n . The high f e r t i l i t y of Canada at the beginning of the p e r i o d has been viewed w i t h i n the context of the Canadian 68 economic and s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e . Canada was a predominantly a g r a r i a n s o c i e t y , w i t h a l a r g e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n i n r u r a l areas. The economy was based on primary product e x t r a c t i o n , i n keeping w i t h the needs of Great B r i t a i n . Thus, the economic s i t u a t i o n was one i n which l a r g e numbers of c h i l d r e n per f a m i l y was an e c o n o m i c a l l y sound response. When the p o p u l a t i o n - l a n d r a t i o became too high, the response was one of o u t - m i g r a t i o n , as was evidenced i n Quebec at the mid-century ( H e n r i p i n and Peron, 1973). With the western f r o n t i e r and the p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f f e r e d by the neighbouring American economy, o u t - m i g r a t i o n must have appeared as an a t t r a c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e to l i m i t i n g f e r t i l i t y . The r e l i g i o u s nature of n i n e t e e n t h Century Canadians, as evidenced by the debate concerning s c h o o l s , probably r e i n f o r c e d t h i s course of a c t i o n . When the e x t e r n a l l y generated f o r c e s of change began to emerge, a l t e r i n g the i n t e r n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of Canadian s o c i e t y , f e r t i l i t y w i t nessed a sharp d e c l i n e . The hig h f e r t i l i t y o f a r u r a l , a g r a r i a n s o c i e t y was no longer a p p r o p r i a t e i n a s o c i e t y undergoing u r b a n i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n . A number of s p e c i f i c f a c t o r s may have been conducive to lowered f e r t i l i t y : the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f women i n t o the p a i d l a b o u r f o r c e ; the experience of i n d u s t r i a l employment; the urban i n f l u e n c e of the immigrants; urban l i v i n g and housing c o n d i t i o n s . P o s s i b l y c e r t a i n c o u n t e r p r e s s u r e s were o p e r a t i n g as w e l l , 69 p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l i g i o n and c h i l d employment. One cannot help but be struck by the magnitude of the d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y during t h i s p e r i o d . I t almost seems t h a t the f e r t i l i t y response to s o c i a l and economic change was greater than the change i t s e l f . At the end of t h i s p e r i o d , Canada was s t i l l a predominantly r u r a l s o c i e t y w i t h a l a r g e a g r i c u l t u r a l p o p u l a t i o n . Second Stage The second stage of f e r t i l i t y was a p e r i o d of p l a t e a u i n Canadian f e r t i l i t y . As revealed i n Table V I I , both the crude b i r t h rate and the general f e r t i l i t y rate r e g i s t e r e d only s l i g h t decreases during t h i s p e r i o d w i t h , f o r example, the crude b i r t h rate d e c l i n i n g s l i g h t l y over 1 p o i n t . This 30 year p e r i o d of r e l a t i v e constancy i n f e r t i l i t y marks a r a d i c a l departure from the f i r s t stage. One would expect that Canadian s o c i e t y was s i m i l a r l y going through a p e r i o d of l i t t l e change i n s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s . However, such was d e f i n i t e l y not the case; t h i s p e r i o d was one of marked s o c i a l change i n Canada. In f a c t t h i s p e r i o d has been dubbed as the time of the "transformation" of Canada (Brown and Cook, 1974). This transformation took the form of change i n the economy and change i n popu l a t i o n . During t h i s p e r i o d , the population of Canada almost doubled, from 4,833,234 to 8,788,483. However, t h i s 70 increase i n population was unequally d i s t r i b u t e d throughout the country. The maritime provinces witnessed small growth, w i t h one province, P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , r e g i s t e r i n g decrease. The c e n t r a l provinces of Ontario and Quebec experienced a moderate amount of growth. I t was the western provinces t h a t r e g i s t e r e d extremely l a r g e percentage increases i n population s i z e . The years from 1891 to 19 21 may w e l l be termed the p e r i o d of western expansion i n Canada. Of t h i s t o t a l growth of 3,955,244, 29 percent has been a t t r i b u t e d to net migration (Mclnnis,1974:41). Thus, u n l i k e the p r i o r p e r i o d , net migration was p o s i t i v e , p l a y i n g an important r o l e i n augmenting the s i z e of the p o p u l a t i o n . One aspect was increased immigration, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the decades 1901-1911 and 1911-1921 (Kalbach and McVey, 1971:41). The foreign-born population increased from 628,492 i n 1891 to 1,955,736 i n 1921. As a r e s u l t , the percent foreign-born i n the t o t a l p o p ulation grew from 13.3 percent to 22.3 percent, as shown i n Table XI. As i n the p r i o r p e r i o d , the western provinces r e c e i v e d l a r g e numbers of immigrants. By 19 21, the western provinces, comprising approximately one-quarter of the t o t a l Canadian p o p u l a t i o n , contained 54 percent of the foreign-born. J u s t as s i g n i f i c a n t as the i n c r e a s i n g numbers e n t e r i n g Canada, and the consequent increase i n the percent foreign-born, was the changed e t h n i c composition of the Table XI Foreign-Born Population of Canada, 1 1891-1921 Number Percent of Foreign-Born T o t a l Population 1891 2 628,492 13.3 1901 699,500 13.0 1911 1,586,961 22.0 1921 1,955,736 22.3 ^Refers t o present area of Canada, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland. 2Excludes Saskatchewan, A l b e r t a , Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Sources: Censuses of Canada: 1891 (v. 4, t a b l e D); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 35). immigrants. No longer was the m a j o r i t y of immigrants from B r i t a i n and other p r e f e r r e d c o u n t r i e s of western Europe; r a t h e r , southern and eastern Europeans comprised a la r g e p o r t i o n of the immigrants. This change was i n p a r t the r e f l e c t i o n of an a l t e r e d Canadian immigration p o l i c y which, i n t u r n , r e f l e c t e d the changing economic c o n d i t i o n s of Europe. Rapid i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n B r i t a i n and Germany meant t h a t these c o u n t r i e s could now absorb i n t o i n d u s t r i a l employment t h e i r r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n s , p o t e n t i a l immigrants t o Canada (Macdonald, 1966:147). Thus Canada was forced to look elsewhere f o r immigrants of a g r i c u l t u r a l background. The c o u n t r i e s of Austria-Hungary, I t a l y , Poland and Russia, which could not absorb t h e i r surplus r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n s , provided the answer. As a r e s u l t , the e t h n i c i t y of the 72 foreign-born population i n Canada changed s u b s t a n t i a l l y . In 1891, 76.2 percent of the foreign-born population was of B r i t i s h o r i g i n ; by 1921, the percent was 54.5. The man p a r t i c u l a r l y important i n launching t h i s i n creased immigration was C l i f f o r d S i f t o n , M i n i s t e r of the I n t e r i o r i n the f i r s t L a u r i e r cabinet. The s e t t l i n g of the west was the c h i e f goal of the S i f t o n - l e d immigration p o l i c y . To t h a t end, only one d i s c r i m i n a t o r y p r i n c i p l e was o p e r a t i v e : urban immigrants were not d e s i r e d (Brown and Cook, 1974:55). The issue of e t h n i c i t y took a back-seat to the r a p i d s e t t l i n g of r u r a l immigrants. Immigrants of any e t h n i c i t y were d e s i r e d as long as they possessed the. r e q u i s i t e r u r a l s k i l l s . The only exception was the A s i a n , who was considered p a r t i c u l a r l y i l l - s u i t e d f o r a s s i m i l a t i o n i n t o Canadian s o c i e t y . O f f i c i a l o p p o s i t i o n to O r i e n t a l immigration focussed on the f a c t t h a t the Asians d i d not i n t e n d to s e t t l e permanently as a g r i c u l t u r i s t s ( T i m l i n , 1960:519). This open-door p o l i c y concerning immigration from t r a d i t i o n a l l y non-preferred c o u n t r i e s was not without i t s c r i t i c s . Some of the c r i t i c i s m was d i r e c t e d at the " f o r e i g n ways" t h a t the immigrants brought w i t h them, and l a c k of knowledge of B r i t i s h - b a s e d i n s t i t u t i o n s and p r i n c i p l e s . Suggested s o l u t i o n s t o the problems created by t h i s new type of immigrant o f t e n revealed considerable ignorance. Of the U k r a i n i a n s , i t was w r i t t e n "To Canadian 73 them, they have to be C h r i s t i a n i z e d " (quoted i n Brown and Cook, 1974:67). Other c r i t i c i s m s of S i f t o n ' s p o l i c y were d i r e c t e d at the f a c t t h a t , to a c e r t a i n extent, i t had not accomplished what i t had set out to do. I t was S i f t o n ' s goal t h a t a l l immigrants would s e t t l e i n the r u r a l areas of the western provinces, forming the b a s i s of Canadian a g r i c u l t u r a l development. However, there were no mechanisms t o ensure t h a t immigrants, once admitted i n t o Canada, d i d , i n f a c t , engage i n the p u r s u i t s t h a t were intended f o r them by the Canadian a u t h o r i t i e s . As a r e s u l t , s u b s t a n t i a l numbers of immigrants e i t h e r remained i n the c i t i e s , or d r i f t e d i n a f t e r a g r i c u l t u r a l f a i l u r e (Brown and Cook, 1974:71). S t a t i s t i c s are not a v a i l a b l e concerning the exact numbers of immigrants who s e t t l e d i n urban areas r a t h e r than r u r a l areas before 1921. The 1921 Census, which c r o s s - t a b u l a t e d place of b i r t h and place of residence (rural/urban) i n d i c a t e d that a higher percentage of the foreign-born, 56.4 percent, was l i v i n g i n urban areas than of the n a t i v e -born, 4 7.6 percent. Canada's success i n a t t r a c t i n g greater numbers of immigrants, coupled w i t h the departure from i n s i s t e n c e on immigrants from p r e f e r r e d c o u n t r i e s , served to a l t e r the e t h n i c composition of Canadian s o c i e t y . Census data on e t h n i c composition show an i n c r e a s i n g trend of n o n - B r i t i s h and non-French populations i n Canada. In 1901, 12.3 percent 74 o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n w a s o f n o n - B r i t i s h - n o n - F r e n c h o r i g i n . B y 19 21, t h a t p e r c e n t h a d r i s e n t o 16.7 p e r c e n t . T h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e " o t h e r p o p u l a t i o n " w a s o f E u r o p e a n o r i g i n . H o w e v e r , t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e " o t h e r E u r o p e a n " p o p u l a t i o n a l t e r e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . I n 1901, t h e l a r g e m a j o r i t y w a s o f n o r t h a n d w e s t E u r o p e a n o r i g i n , 83.7 p e r c e n t . B y 1921, t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f n o r t h a n d w e s t E u r o p e a n o r i g i n h a d d e c r e a s e d t o 5 0.9. T h e r e l a t i v e p r o p o r t i o n o f s o u t h a n d e a s t E u r o p e a n o r i g i n s i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y . T h e p r o v i n c e s d i d n o t s h a r e e q u a l l y i n t h i s i n c r e a s e d d i v e r s i t y o f p o p u l a t i o n . I n l i n e w i t h S i f t o n ' s p o l i c y o f d i v e r t i n g i m m i g r a n t s t o t h e w e s t e r n p r o v i n c e s , t h e p r a i r i e p r o v i n c e s a n d B . C . w e r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e f o r e i g n - b o r n , i n t h e r a n g e o f 40-6 0 p e r c e n t o n t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h i s p e r i o d . S i m i l a r l y , t h e e t h n i c c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e p r o v i n c e s v a r i e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y . I f a p r o v i n c e h a v i n g a t l e a s t 75 p e r c e n t o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n o f o n e e t h n i c g r o u p c a n b e t a k e n a s e t h n i c a l l y h o m o g e n e o u s , t h e n o n l y f o u r p r o v i n c e s w e r e s o c h a r a c t e r i z e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . T h e p r o v i n c e s o f P r i n c e E d w a r d I s l a n d , N o v a S c o t i a , a n d O n t a r i o w e r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y B r i t i s h ; t h e p r o v i n c e o f Q u e b e c w a s h o m o g e n e o u s l y F r e n c h . New B r u n s w i c k , w i t h a p r e d o m i n a n t l y F r e n c h p r o v i n c e t o t h e w e s t a n d l a r g e l y B r i t i s h p r o v i n c e s t o t h e e a s t , w a s c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a m i x e d B r i t i s h - F r e n c h p o p u l a t i o n . 75 The f o u r western provinces d i s p l a y e d considerable e t h n i c d i v e r s i t y . The population of these provinces was d i v i d e d between the B r i t i s h and n o n - B r i t i s h - non-French groups. Gen e r a l l y , the B r i t i s h formed the l a r g e s t s i n g l e group; however, the percentage of n o n - B r i t i s h - non-French or "other" was not i n c o n s e q u e n t i a l , i n the range of 30-40 percent, on the average, throughout the p e r i o d 1901-1921. Focussing on the population designated as "other" i n the western p r o v i n c e s , i t was, i n c r e a s i n g l y throughout the p e r i o d , a European pop u l a t i o n . As European immigrants f i l l e d up the west, the r e l a t i v e s i z e of the n a t i v e Indian population decreased s i g n i f i c a n t l y . The western provinces were the r e c e p t a c l e of the "other" European population i n Canada, and i n c r e a s i n g l y so during t h i s p e r i o d . In 1901, 27.4 percent of the t o t a l "other" European population r e s i d e d i n the west; i n 1921, the f i g u r e was 59.7 percent. In view of the f a c t t h a t the western provinces comprised only 11.1 percent and 28.2 percent of the t o t a l Canadian population i n 1901 and 1921, r e s p e c t i v e l y , the concentration of "other" Europeans i n the west was marked. Coupled w i t h the p o p u l a t i n g of the west of Canada was a s i g n i f i c a n t transformation i n the o r g a n i z a t i o n of the Canadian economy. This era was t h a t of the "wheat boom." The importance of wheat i n the economy expanded, r e p l a c i n g lumber and f u r as the major exports of Canada. 76 A number of e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s operated at the beginning of t h i s p e r i o d to f a c i l i t a t e economic development i n Canada. A general increase i n world p r i c e s occurred a f t e r 189 6, p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r raw m a t e r i a l s such as wheat; the growing urban and i n d u s t r i a l populations of western Europe and the United States provided a market f o r Canadian f o o d s t u f f s ; d e c l i n i n g shipping costs helped to keep the p r i c e of Canadian exports competitive. These f a c t o r s , coupled w i t h p o p u l a t i o n increase and i t s western extension, produced a boom i n wheat production. In 189 6, Canada produced approximately 8 m i l l i o n bushels of wheat; i n 1911, 78 m i l l i o n bushels; i n 1921, 151 m i l l i o n bushels. At the same time, the p r i c e of g r a i n rose by over 60 percent (Brown and Cook, 1974:50-3). This increase i n production both r e f l e c t e d and created the increased population i n the western provinces. The increased production and population of the west had a number of e f f e c t s on the Canadian economy as a whole. The boom of the wheat economy served to a t t r a c t the f o r e i g n investment necessary f o r i n d u s t r i a l development. A l s o , the growing population of the west provided a market f o r the goods manufactured i n the more eastern p a r t s of Canada. The a g r i c u l t u r e of the west made p o s s i b l e the i n d u s t r y of the east. Together, an economic base was created t h a t could support an i n c r e a s i n g urban p o p u l a t i o n . Canada underwent considerable u r b a n i z a t i o n during 77 t h i s p e r i o d . The p e r c e n t urban i n c r e a s e d from s l i g h t l y under 30 p e r c e n t i n 1891 to a f i g u r e approaching 50 p e r c e n t i n 19 21, as shown i n Table XII. The i n c r e a s e i n the p o p u l a t i o n urban r e f l e c t e d the growth of i n d u s t r y brought about by the "wheat boom." Indeed, the growth o f the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r was s u b s t a n t i a l d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . The number of manufacturing e s t a b l i s h m e n t s (with 5 or more employees) i n c r e a s e d from 14,650 i n 1900 to 41,323 i n 1921: the average c a p i t a l investment i n c r e a s e d from $30,000 to $78,000: the gross value of products i n c r e a s e d from $481,053,000 to $2,747,900: the number of persons employed i n manufacturing i n c r e a s e d from 284,000 to 556,000 (Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1924:415). Table XII Percent of P o p u l a t i o n Urban 1 Canada 2 1891-1921 1891 29. 8 1901 34. 9 1911 41. 8 1921 47.4 xUrban p o p u l a t i o n , f o r 1891-1911, d e f i n e d as the p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d i n g i n i n c o r p o r a t e d c i t i e s , towns, and v i l l a g e s o f 1,000 or more. In 1921, urban p o p u l a t i o n d e f i n e d as the p o p u l a t i o n r e s i d i n g i n i n c o r p o r a t e d c i t i e s , towns and v i l l a g e s of 1,000 and over and u n i n c o r p o r a t e d towns and v i l l a g e s of 1,000 and over and u n i n c o r p o r a t e d suburbs, ad j a c e n t t o i n c o r p o r a t e d c i t i e s , towns, and v i l l a g e s of 5,000 and over, which had a p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y o f a t l e a s t 1,000 persons per square m i l e . 2 E x c l u d e s Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Source: Stone (19 67:29) 78 Thus, the "wheat boom" had st i m u l a t e d considerable growth and change i n the Canadian economy. By 1914, the "wheat boom" was over due to a number of f a c t o r s : r i s i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e s ; d e c l i n i n g f o r e i g n investment; f a l l i n g p r i c e s f o r wheat; and p r a i r i e drought. However, the economic d i f f i c u l t i e s and the p o s s i b i l i t y of a depression were averted by World War I. The "wheat boom" was s u b s t i t u t e d by a "war boom." As the overseas demand f o r Canadian f o o d s t u f f s was high, p r i c e s of Canadian a g r i c u l t u r a l exports rose. An i n c r e a s i n g munitions i n d u s t r y served to b o l s t e r a sagging manufacturing se c t o r . The changing d i s t r i b u t i o n of occupations throughout t h i s p e r i o d r e f l e c t s the "maturing" of the Canadian economy. The p r o p o r t i o n of the labour force engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r e d e c l i n e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y , as shown i n Table X I I I . Although the percent engaged i n manufacturing and b u i l d i n g occupations d i d not a l t e r n o t i c e a b l y , the occupations t h a t are supported by or support the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , trade and merchandising and the p r o f e s s i o n s , r e g i s t e r e d i n c r e a s e s . The percent of domestic and personal s e r v i c e occupations decreased, r e f l e c t i n g , i n the main, the lessened importance of servants i n an i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y . The percentage of women i n the p a i d labour force increased a few p o i n t s , to approximately 16 percent i n 1921. More s i g n i f i c a n t was the changing occupational d i s t r i b u t i o n of the female labour f o r c e . The percent engaged i n 79 Table X I I I Occupational D i s t r i b u t i o n , Canada, 1 1891-1921 A g r i c u l t u r e Manufacturing and B u i l d i n g Domestic and Personal Service Trade and Merchandising P r o f e s s i o n s Percent i n Occupation 1891 1901 1911 1921 44.5 43. 9 34. 3 32. 8 26. 3 27.9 27.1 26.5 8.1 8.6 7. 8 6.7 6.8 9.0 10. 4 11. 8 3.9 4.7 4.4 7.0 E x c l u d e s Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Source: Census of Canada: 1921 (v. 4, t a b l e 1). manufacturing and personal and domestic s e r v i c e dropped s u b s t a n t i a l l y . Together, these two o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s comprised n e a r l y 80 percent of the working women i n 1891; by 19 21, the f i g u r e was l e s s than 50 percent. Large increases were r e g i s t e r e d i n the p r o f e s s i o n s , mainly teaching and n u r s i n g , and the commerce-related occupations. A number of changes o c c u r r i n g i n t h i s second p e r i o d would l e a d us to expect f u r t h e r d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y . The increase i n the percent urban, the d e c l i n i n g p r o p o r t i o n engaged i n a g r i c u l t u r a l occupations, the growth of i n d u s t r y , are among the f a c t o r s conducive to lowered f e r t i l i t y . C e r t a i n l y the d e c l i n e s experienced i n the f i r s t p e r i o d are congruent w i t h such a framework. Yet, d e c l i n e s were not r e g i s t e r e d ; r a t h e r f e r t i l i t y r a t e s remained r e l a t i v e l y constant. Rather than d i s c a r d these explanatory v a r i a b l e s , 80 and evidence to be presented s h o r t l y guards against t h e i r d i s m i s s a l , one should look elsewhere f o r a v a r i a b l e or set of v a r i a b l e s t h a t perhaps exerted a counter-pressure against the f e r t i l i t y - l o w e r i n g f orces of modernization. The V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s r eport of 1921 presents c e r t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n on b i r t h s c r o s s - t a b u l a t e d by c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the mother, namely province of residence, place of residence ( r u r a l or urban), and place of b i r t h of mother, f o r a l l e x i s t i n g provinces i n 1921 except Quebec. With the data given, t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r the s p e c i f i e d sub-populations of Canada, using the i n d i r e c t method as set f o r t h by Shryock and S i e g e l (1973:484). 6 The r a t e s , which i n d i c a t e the t o t a l number of c h i l d r e n a woman would bear i f she bore c h i l d r e n at the a g e - s p e c i f i c schedule p r e v a i l i n g i n a given year (1921 i n t h i s case), are presented i n Table XIV. A r a t h e r strong f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l i n terms of rura l / u r b a n place of residence may be observed. Rural women, on the average, had one more c h i l d than urban women. This d i f f e r e n t i a l , which i s an expected one w i t h i n the general framework of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory, r e f l e c t s the d i f f e r e n t i a l r o l e of c h i l d r e n i n r u r a l and urban environments, as w e l l as the d i f f e r i n g c o n d i t i o n s of, and o r i e n t a t i o n s toward, l i v i n g i n the two s e t t i n g s . This d i f f e r e n t i a l a l s o serves to e x p l a i n the r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s i n t o t a l f e r t i l i t y t h a t are presented i n Table XIV. The 81 Table XIV T o t a l F e r t i l i t y - Rates f o r S e l e c t e d Sub-Populations of Canada, 1 1921 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Mother T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rate Rural 4.3 Urban 3. 3 Canadian-Born 3. 5 T o t a l Foreign-Born 4.6 B r i t i s h - B o r n 3. 3 Maritimes 4.2 Ontario 3.6 P r a i r i e s 4.5 B r i t i s h Columbia 3. 1 1Excludes Quebec, Yukon, and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Source: C a l c u l a t e d from data presented i n the 1921 volume of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s and the 1921 Census (v. 2, t a b l e s 6 and 7). maritime provinces and the p r a i r i e provinces were two regions of high f e r t i l i t y i n 19 21; the percent of the female po p u l a t i o n aged 15-49 t h a t was urban was 43 and 42, r e s p e c t i v e l y . On the other hand, Ontario and B r i t i s h Columbia, w i t h 63 and 53 percent urban, r e s p e c t i v e l y , e x h i b i t e d much lower t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . I f the r u r a l / u r b a n d i f f e r e n t i a l , as i t e x i s t e d i n 19 21, can be taken as i n d i c a t i v e of rural/urban d i f f e r e n c e s e a r l i e r on, one i s faced w i t h the question why the i n c r e a s i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n of t h i s p e r i o d d i d not r e s u l t i n d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y . A p a r t i a l answer l i e s i n the place of 82 b i r t h d i f f e r e n t i a l s t h a t are pres e n t e d i n Table XIV. I t can be seen t h a t the f e r t i l i t y of f o r e i g n - b o m women was much highe r than the f e r t i l i t y of the Canadian-born, w i t h the exc e p t i o n of B r i t i s h - b o r n women, who d i s p l a y e d a t o t a l 7 f e r t i l i t y r a t e lower than the Canadian-born. I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , the per c e n t f o r e i g n - b o r n of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n grew s u b s t a n t i a l l y and, w i t h i n the fo r e i g n - b o r n p o p u l a t i o n , the p e r c e n t B r i t i s h - b o r n d e c l i n e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Given the d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n d i c a t e d i n 1921, the changing composition of the Canadian p o p u l a t i o n , w i t h the a d d i t i o n of Europeans from h i g h - f e r t i l i t y r e g i o n s , may have operated to co u n t e r a c t f o r c e s conducive to lowered f e r t i l i t y , p roducing a p e r i o d of constancy i n f e r t i l i t y r a t h e r than the expected d e c l i n e . In t h i s way, the r o l e t h a t western expansion p l a y e d was somewhat p a r a d o x i c a l : on the one hand, i t p r o v i d e d the impetus f o r i n d u s t r i a l development and growth; on the other hand, i t i n t r o d u c e d i n t o Canada people w i t h r u r a l , h i g h - f e r t i l i t y backgrounds who would be expected t o behave i n ways congruent w i t h t h a t background f o r some p e r i o d o f time. T h i r d Stage The d i s t i n c t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y , from 19 21 to 19 61, was f l u c t u a t i o n . While the f i r s t stage was marked by steady d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y , and the second stage d i s p l a y e d v i r t u a l l y no change i n f e r t i l i t y , 83 the t h i r d stage witnessed a trend of considerable unevenness. In the f i r s t two decades of t h i s p e r i o d , and p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the decade of the 1920s, f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y : the crude b i r t h r a t e f e l l more than 8 p o i n t s ; the general f e r t i l i t y r ate was lowered by 39 p o i n t s . By 1951, f e r t i l i t y had made a marked recovery, w i t h , f o r example, the crude b i r t h rate i n 1951 over 4 p o i n t s higher than i t s 19 41 counterpart. This heightened l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y continued on u n t i l 19 61. The crude b i r t h rate r e g i s t e r e d a s l i g h t d e c l i n e between 1951 and 1961 but, the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , a more r e f i n e d measure than the crude b i r t h r a t e , showed a small increase. As a r e s u l t of t h i s p r o t r a c t e d p e r i o d of r e l a t i v e l y high f e r t i l i t y , the percent reduction i n f e r t i l i t y over the e n t i r e t h i r d stage was q u i t e s m a l l , i n the range of 12-16 percent. The f l u c t u a t i o n s i n f e r t i l i t y t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e d the t h i r d stage may be viewed i n the context of the changing s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s of the time. The two most prominent events were the economic depression that struck i n the l a t e 1920s and World.War I I , events which a f f e c t e d the f e r t i l i t y p a t terns of the e n t i r e western world. Between 19 21 and 19 31, the crude b i r t h rate was reduced by 20.8 percent, the l a r g e s t decade reduction that had so f a r occurred. The depression, which commenced i n 1929, played a c o n t r i b u t i n g r o l e . The depression h i t Canada hard i n her r o l e as exporter of primary products, causing a s i g n i f i c a n t r eduction i n standard of l i v i n g . However, the e f f e c t s of the depression were not e q u a l l y f e l t i n a l l p a r t s of the country. The region most dependent on primary product e x p o r t a t i o n , the p r a i r i e provinces, was the hardest h i t . Other areas, notably Nova S c o t i a , experienced much l e s s severe decreases i n income (Report of the Royal Commission on Dominion-Provincial R e l a t i o n s , 1940:150). I f the depression was a major f a c t o r determining reduced f e r t i l i t y , one would expect the d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y to r e f l e c t i t s d i f f e r e n t i a l impact. The data bear out t h i s e x p e c t a t i o n . While the crude b i r t h r a t e of Canada as a whole d e c l i n e d 20.8 percent, the p r a i r i e provinces r e g i s t e r e d a reduction of 26.2 percent whereas the crude g b i r t h rate of Nova S c o t i a d e c l i n e d only 11.7 percent. A l s o , u r b a n i z a t i o n continued during t h i s decade, w i t h the percent urban i n c r e a s i n g from 4 7.4 to 5 2.5, as shown i n Table XV. Given rural/urban d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y , the trend of i n c r e a s i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n was another f a c t o r o p e r a t i n g to lower Canadian f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . The depression and oincreased u r b a n i z a t i o n should perhaps not be viewed as separate phenomenon, as i t i s l i k e l y t h a t depressed r u r a l c o n d i t i o n s f o r c e d people i n t o the c i t i e s i n search of employment. The second decade of t h i s p e r i o d witnessed f u r t h e r d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y w i t h , f o r example, the crude b i r t h f a l l i n g 7.3 percent to a low of 22.9 i n 1941. The economic 85 Table XV Percent of Population Urban 1 Canada, 2 1921-1961 1921 47.4 1931 52.5 1941 55. 7 1951 62.4 1961 69. 7 1 Urban po p u l a t i o n defined as the population r e s i d i n g i n incorporated and unincorporated c i t i e s , towns and v i l l a g e s of 1000 and more, and unincorporated suburbs, adjacent to i n c o r p o r a t e d c i t i e s , towns and v i l l a g e s of 5000 and over, which had a p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y of at l e a s t 1000 persons per square m i l e . 2Excludes Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Source: Stone (1967:29). d i f f i c u l t i e s of the immediate past were over, aided by the war which commenced i n 19 39. I t i s l i k e l y t h a t the war e f f o r t produced the economic s t i m u l a t i o n conducive to heightened f e r t i l i t y ; however, other w a r - r e l a t e d f a c t o r s , such as the separation of couples and the u n c e r t a i n t i e s of l i f e , exerted counter-pressures. been termed the "post-war baby boom," a phenomenon common to a l l western populations. The "making up" of marriages and babies postponed by the war r e s u l t e d i n increased p e r i o d f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . This "making up" was p o s s i b l e given the favourable economic c o n d i t i o n s i n the post-war west. Yet, i n Canada, t h i s boom continued on u n t i l 1961, w i t h 1961 general f e r t i l i t y rates even higher than the 1951 r a t e s . The heightened f e r t i l i t y of 1951 r e f l e c t s what has Data on a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y , a v a i l a b l e f o r the e n t i r e p e r i o d , shed c o n s i d e r a b l e l i g h t on the p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y change. A g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , presented i n Table XVI, i n d i c a t e the d i f f e r e n t i a l f e r t i l i t y behaviour of the separate age groups w i t h i n the c h i l d b e a r i n g ages throughout t h i s t h i r d stage. Table XVI A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y Rates Canada, 1 1 9 2 1 - 1 9 6 1 Rate p e r 1000 women aged: „ _., a F e r . t x l 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Rate 1921 38.8 185.2 225.8 193.2 135.3 61.4 8.2 4.2 1931 31.7 146.0 186.4 154.5 109.6 46.7 5.6 3.4 1941 31.2 142.2 164.2 125.6 82.1 32.4 3.6 2.9 1951 48.1 188.7 198.8 144.5 86.5 30.9 3.1 3.5 1961 58.2 233.6 219.2 144.9 81.1 28.5 2.4 3.8 P e r c e n t Change 1921-31 -18.3 -21.2 -17.4 -20.0 -19.0 -23.9 -30.2 -19.0 1931-41 -1.6 -2.6 -11.9 -18.7 -25.1 -30.6 -35.7 -14.7 1941-51 +54.2 +32.7 +21.1 +15.0 +5.4 -4.6 -13.9 +20.7 1951-61 +21.0 +23.8 +10.3 +0.3 -6.2 -7.8 -22.6 +8.6 1921-61 +50.0 +26.1 -2.9 -25.0 -40.1 -53.6 -70.7 -9.5 E x c l u d e s Newfoundland f o r a l l y e a r s and Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s p r i o r t o 1951. Source: V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1971 ( B i r t h s : t a b l e 10), w i t h c o r r e c t i o n s f o r under r e g i s t r a t i o n i n 1921-1941. 87 The pervasive e f f e c t of the depression can be seen i n the changes o c c u r r i n g at each age group i n the decade 19 21-19 31. A l l age groups experienced a percent reduction i n f e r t i l i t y of approximately 20 percent. However, a f t e r 1931,.the d i f f e r e n t i a l behaviour of younger women and o l d e r women can be seen. In every decade a f t e r 19 31, women of ages 35 and over d i s p l a y e d d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y . Even i n the decade from 1941 t o 1951, when f e r t i l i t y rose d r a m a t i c a l l y , the f e r t i l i t y of women aged over 40 d e c l i n e d . On the other hand, the f e r t i l i t y of younger women d i s p l a y e d a very d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n . Women i n the ages under 30 experienced only s l i g h t reductions i n the decade from 19 31 to 1941, much smaller than that of t h e i r o l d e r counterparts. In the second h a l f of t h i s p e r i o d , the f e r t i l i t y of younger women, aged under 30, rose sharply. Thus, the upswing i n f e r t i l i t y experienced i n 1951 and 1961 was caused by the higher f e r t i l i t y of younger women, and was not the r e s u l t of a general increase i n f e r t i l i t y at a l l ages. While the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y decreased 9.5 percent over the e n t i r e p e r i o d , the rates of change f o r the separate age groups showed a large v a r i a t i o n : the f e r t i l i t y of younger women increased a great d e a l , 5 0 percent i n the case of women aged 15-19; women aged 25-29 d i s p l a y e d l i t t l e change; the f e r t i l i t y of women aged over 30 decreased, w i t h the extent of decrease v a r y i n g p o s i t i v e l y w i t h advancing age, such t h a t women of the o l d e s t group, aged 45-49, experienced a 88 r e d u c t i o n of 70.7 percent. The changing s t r u c t u r e of a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y i n d i c a t e s a change i n the mean age of c h i l d b e a r i n g . This change may be seen, i n a rough way, by comparing the r a t i o of the a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r ate of women aged 25-29 to th a t of women aged 20-24. In 1921, the r a t i o was 1.22, i n d i c a t i n g a higher f e r t i l i t y f o r women aged 25-29; i n 1961, the r a t i o was .94, i n d i c a t i n g that peak c h i l d b e a r i n g had s h i f t e d from the age group 25-29 to the age group 20-24. The mean age at c h i l d b e a r i n g , as presented i n Table XVII, shows a steady downward t r e n d , from age 30 i n 1921 to age 27.8 i n 1961. The bulk of t h i s 2.2 year d e c l i n e i n mean age was concentrated i n the l a t t e r two decades of t h i s p e r i o d . Therefore, one f a c t o r accounting f o r the heightened o v e r a l l l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y i n 1951 and 1961 was a downward s h i f t i n mean age of c h i l d b e a r i n g , which serves to i n f l a t e measures such as the crude b i r t h rate and the general f e r t i l i t y rate because of the p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l a r g e r number of women at younger ages. Change i n the age pa t t e r n of c h i l d b e a r i n g i s u s u a l l y r e l a t e d to change i n the timing of marriage, a v a r i a b l e that w i l l be considered i n f u r t h e r d e t a i l l a t e r . Thus, i n the midst of the f l u c t u a t i o n of the t h i r d f e r t i l i t y stage, elements of constancy may be found. Women i n the o l d e r age groups e x h i b i t e d d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y r a t e s throughout the e n t i r e p e r i o d , even i n the face of the s u b s t a n t i a l increase i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y experienced a f t e r 89 Table XVII Mean Age at C h i l d b e a r i n g , Canada, 1 1921-1961 Mean Age 2 1921 30. 1 1931 29. 9 1941 29.2 1951 28.5 1961 27.8 E x c l u d e s Newfoundland f o r a l l years and Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s p r i o r to 1951. 2 C a l c u l a t e d w i t h the data presented i n Table XVI, using the formula set down by Shryock and S i e g e l (1973:473). World War I I . A l s o , the mean age at c h i l d b e a r i n g r e g i s t e r e d a steady, downward trend. Therefore, the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y i s best c h a r a c t e r i z e d as one i n which women began and completed t h e i r f a m i l i e s at p r o g r e s s i v e l y e a r l i e r ages, r a t h e r than one i n which completed fa m i l y s i z e changed s u b s t a n t i a l l y . Data presented i n the V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s p u b l i c a t i o n s of 1951 and 1961 allow f o r the e s t i m a t i o n of the average c h i l d b e a r i n g schedule of women. These estimates, c a l c u l a t e d from a g e - b i r t h o r d e r - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , as described by Shryock and S i e g e l (1973:476), are presented i n Table XVIII. I t can be seen t h a t , at each b i r t h order, the median age of mother d e c l i n e d between 1951 and 1961. Women i n 1961 completed t h e i r f a m i l i e s , on average, at a younger age than women i n 1951, despite the f a c t t h a t the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y 90 rate was higher i n 1961. Thus, the rate of c h i l d b e a r i n g was acc e l e r a t e d . In 1951, the average time span between the f i r s t and l a s t (3.5) c h i l d was 2.6 years per c h i l d ; i n 19 61, the comparable f i g u r e was 2.2 years. Table XVIII Aspects of Average C h i l d b e a r i n g Schedule Canada, 1 1951-1961 1951 1961 Median Age of Mother at each B i r t h Order: F i r s t 23.5 22.9 Second 26.5 25.0 T h i r d 28.7 27. 7 Fourth 30. 3 29.5 F i f t h 31.8 31. 2 S i x t h 33. 0 32. 4 Seventh 34.0 33. 6 Eighth + 37. 2 36. 6 T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rate: 3.5 3. 8 Median Age at Completion: 29.5 29. 1 Rate of C h i l d b e a r i n g : 2 2.6 2.2 Excludes Newfoundland. Rate of c h i l d b e a r i n g r e f e r s to the average number of years per c h i l d between the f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d . C a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the average number of years between the f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d by the average number of c h i l d r e n born between the f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d . Sources: V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1951 (tables 38 and 40); 1961 (table B l l ) . Census of Canada: 1971 (Cat. 92-715, t a b l e 7). 91 Viewed i n t h i s l i g h t , the r i s e i n f e r t i l i t y , e s p e c i a l l y i n the decade 1951-1961, seems l e s s anomalous: the p r o s p e r i t y of the times allowed women to a l t e r t h e i r c h i l d b e a r i n g schedule. However, i t should be remembered tha t younger age at c h i l d b e a r i n g b r i n g s w i t h i t the p o s s i b i l i t y of l a r g e r completed f a m i l y s i z e as the p e r i o d of exposure to the r i s k of a d d i t i o n a l pregnancies i s lengthened to i n c l u d e years of r e l a t i v e l y high f e c u n d i t y . Data presented i n the V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s p u b l i c a t i o n s f o r the p e r i o d from 1921 t o 1951 a l l o w f o r the examination of s e l e c t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y . T o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ates f o r sub-populations of Canada, c a l c u l a t e d using the i n d i r e c t method discussed e a r l i e r , are presented i n Table XIX. Rural/urban d i f f e r e n t i a l s were strong f o r a l l years except the war year of 1941. However, the trends of r u r a l and urban f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e d markedly. Urban f e r t i l i t y underwent a general trend of d e c l i n e , w i t h the 1951 rate 21 percent lower than the 1921 r a t e . On the other hand, r u r a l f e r t i l i t y , a f t e r d e c l i n i n g s u b s t a n t i a l l y from 1921 to 1941, d i s p l a y e d a la r g e increase i n the decade 1941-1951, i n c r e a s i n g approximately 86 percent. As a r e s u l t , the r u r a l t o t a l f e r t i l i t y rate i n 1951 was 26 percent higher than the 1921 r a t e . In other words, the "baby boom" i n the post-war years was a r u r a l phenomenon i n Canada. P a r t i a l explana-t i o n s l i e i n d i f f e r e n t i a l r u r a l / u r b a n marriage patterns and 92 Table XIX T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rates f o r Selected Sub-Populations of Canada, 1 1921-1951 1921 2 1931 1941 1951 Rural 4.3 4.1 2.9 . 5.4 Urban 3.3 2.9 3.0 2.6 Canadian-Born 3.5 3.5 3.1 — T o t a l Foreign-Born 4.6 3.1 2.2 -B r i t i s h - B o r n 3 3.3 2.6 1.9 -Born In: Northwest Europe 4 - 3.9 2.4 -Southeast Europe 4 - 3.9 2.3 -United States - 3.2 2.5 -A s i a - 6.1 3.9 — E t h n i c O r i g i n : B r i t i s h - 2.6 2.3 3.1 French - 4.7 3.9 4.1 North and West Europe 4 - 3.3 2.8 3.5 East and South Europe 4 - 4.2 2.7 3.0 Asian 5.8 3.6 3.0 E x c l u d e s Newfoundland, Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . ^Excludes Quebec. 3 I n c l u d e s England, Wales, Scotland, I r e l a n d . 4 R e f e r s to s l i g h t l y v a r y i n g populations i n d i f f e r e n t years due to census i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s . Sources: C a l c u l a t e d from data presented i n V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1921 (tables 4 and 7); 1931 (tables 21, 27, and 29); 1941 (tables 29, 36 and 38), 1951 (tables 27 and 34) and i n the Censuses of Canada: 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e s 6 and 7); 1931 (v. 3, t a b l e s 13, 27, and 29); 1941 (v. 3, t a b l e 7 and v. 4, t a b l e 3); 1951 (v. 2, t a b l e s 1 and 4). the migration of young women from r u r a l areas to urban areas, i n the l i g h t of employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n the c i t i e s i n the post-war e r a , r e s u l t i n g i n a sex r a t i o favourable to e a r l y marriage and, hence, e a r l y c h i l d b e a r i n g i n the r u r a l areas and unfavourable i n the urban areas, due to a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number of young women r e l a t i v e to young men. These v a r i a b l e s w i l l be examined l a t e r . E t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e may be observed through the p e r i o d f o r which data are a v a i l a b l e , 1931-1951, although the extent of the d i f f e r e n t i a l s narrow over time. In 1931, a d i f f e r e n c e of 3.2 c h i l d r e n per woman e x i s t e d between the lowest f e r t i l i t y group, the B r i t i s h , and the highest group, the Asians. Omitting the Asians, who comprise a small p r o p o r t i o n of the Canadian p o p u l a t i o n , the d i f f e r e n c e remains large w i t h 2.1 c h i l d r e n per woman separa t i n g B r i t i s h women and French women. By 1951, the d i f f e r e n t i a l had narrowed to approximately 1 c h i l d per woman. The convergence i n t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a tes was due to d i f f e r e n t i a l trends of change w i t h i n the various e t h n i c c a t e g o r i e s . The t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s of the three groups d i s p l a y i n g a r a t e of over 4 i n 19 31, the French, the eastern and southern Europeans, and the Asians, showed an o v e r a l l trend of d e c l i n e between 1931 and 1951. The rates f o r French and eastern and southern Europeans underwent some increase between 1941 and 1951, but of minor s i g n i f i c a n c e . On the other hand, the lower f e r t i l i t y groups of 19 31, the B r i t i s h and the western Europeans, r e g i s t e r e d l a r g e increases i n the decade 1941-1951, 35 percent i n the case of the B r i t i s h and 25 percent i n the case of the Western Europeans. Thus, as was the case i n terms of rura l / u r b a n d i f f e r e n t i a l s , the increase i n f e r t i l i t y a f t e r World War I I was not e q u a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d throughout the various sub-populations of Canada. Rather, women of B r i t i s h and western European o r i g i n c o n t r i b u t e d d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y to the "boom"; perhaps r e f l e c t i n g the favourable s o c i a l and economic p o s i t i o n of these groups, a l l o w i n g them to engage i n e a r l i e r marriage and e a r l i e r c h i l d b e a r i n g i n the prosperous years f o l l o w i n g the war. D i f f e r e n t i a l s by place of b i r t h of mother are a v a i l a b l e f o r the p e r i o d 1921-1941. The s i z e of the 1921 Canadian-born/foreign-born f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l should be i n t e r p r e t e d w i t h caution as the province of Quebec i s excluded. Given the f a c t t h a t Quebec was l a r g e l y comprised of French women born i n Canada, and t h a t French-Canadian f e r t i l i t y was high at t h i s time, the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate f o r the Canadian-born, as presented i n Table XIX, i s lower than i t would be i f Quebec was inc l u d e d . Therefore, the Canadian-born/foreign-born d i f f e r e n t i a l i s l a r g e r than i t would otherwise be. Given the estimated t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a te of Quebec i n 1921 (5.2) and the percent of a l l women r e s i d i n g i n Quebec (26.7 p e r c e n t ) , a rough re-estimate of the Canadian-born t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate i n 1921 i s 3.9. Thus, the d i f f e r e n t i a l remains, w i t h the foreign-born e x h i b i t i n g higher f e r t i l i t y than the Canadian-born, but i t i s s m a l l e r . In 19 31, the d i f f e r e n t i a l was reversed; the f o r e i g n -born r e g i s t e r e d a lower t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate than the Canadian-born. This reversed d i f f e r e n t i a l r e f l e c t s the f a c t that the foreign-born reduced t h e i r f e r t i l i t y s u b s t a n t i a l l y more than d i d the Canadian-born. Using the re-estimated 19 21 t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e f o r the Canadian-born, 3.9, the re d u c t i o n from 1921 to 1931 was .4 or 10 percent. The t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate of the t o t a l f oreign-born, on the other hand, d e c l i n e d 1.5 or 32.6 percent. This d e c l i n e exceeds the d e c l i n e experienced by the B r i t i s h - b o r n ; t h e r e f o r e , the foreign-born of o r i g i n s other than B r i t i s h reduced t h e i r f e r t i l i t y more than d i d the B r i t i s h - b o r n . The same p a t t e r n was e x h i b i t e d i n 1931-1941: the t o t a l foreign-born experienced l a r g e r d e c l i n e s than the Canadian-born; the non-B r i t i s h foreign-born d i s p l a y e d l a r g e r reductions than the B r i t i s h - b o r n . As a r e s u l t , the Canadian-born/foreign-born f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l widened i n 1941, and the d i f f e r e n t i a l s amongst the sub-populations of the.European-born narrowed. I f the place of b i r t h d i f f e r e n t i a l s of 1921 can be taken as i n d i c a t i v e of the second stage of f e r t i l i t y as a whole, then the i n t r o d u c t i o n of i n c r e a s i n g numbers of the foreign-born i n t h i s p e r i o d operated as a f a c t o r i n c r e a s i n g the f e r t i l i t y of Canada. By 19 31, t h i s s i t u a t i o n had changed, suggesting that the r o l e of the foreign-born i n the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y was one of lowering o v e r a l l Canadian f e r t i l i t y . Two c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s emerge as important i n the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y . One, the p e r i o d was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by marked f l u c t u a t i o n , as Canada faced f i r s t economic depression, then war. Despite the trend of f l u c t u a t i o n , one constant element emerged: the age p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y underwent a c o n t i n u a l trend towards younger c h i l d b e a r i n g . Two, the various sub-populations of Canada e x h i b i t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l f e r t i l i t y and d i f f e r e n t i a l trends over time. Rural f e r t i l i t y was higher than urban f e r t i l i t y ; women of B r i t i s h o r i g i n d i s p l a y e d lower t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s than other women; the foreign-born were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by lower f e r t i l i t y than the Canadian-born, at l e a s t i n 1931 and 1941. The r i s e i n f e r t i l i t y i n 1951 was due to the increased f e r t i l i t y of women i n r u r a l areas; although a l l e t h n i c groups experienced some increase i n t o t a l f e r t i l i t y i n 1951, the r a t e s f o r the B r i t i s h and western European women rose p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y higher than the rat e s of the other e t h n i c groups, p a r t i c u l a r l y French women whose f e r t i l i t y rose only a small degree. Fourth Stage The f o u r t h stage of f e r t i l i t y , the decade from 19 61 to 19 71, was marked by a l a r g e - s c a l e reduction i n 97 f e r t i l i t y . The crude b i r t h rate d e c l i n e d from 26.0 to an unprecedented low of 16.8, a reduction of 35.4 percent, the l a r g e s t d e c l i n e o c c u r r i n g i n any decade or i n any stage. S i m i l a r l y , the general f e r t i l i t y rate d e c l i n e d by 39.1 percent. The f o u r t h stage, t h e r e f o r e , s i g n a l l e d a retu r n to low f e r t i l i t y a f t e r a twenty-year upswing. Data on a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y are a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s p e r i o d and are presented i n Table XX. As i n the t h i r d stage, c h i l d b e a r i n g was concentrated i n the age groups from 20 to 34. A l l age groups experienced d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s p e r i o d . However, d e c l i n e was not evenly d i s t r i b u t e d ; again, the o l d e r age groups r e g i s t e r e d l a r g e r d e c l i n e s than the younger groups. As a r e s u l t , the mean age at c h i l d -bearing d e c l i n e d from 27.8 to 27.1. Thus, despite t h e i r d i f f e r e n t trends, the t h i r d and f o u r t h stages of f e r t i l i t y were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a common fe a t u r e : a p r o g r e s s i v e l y younger age at c h i l d b e a r i n g . The combination of s i g n i f i c a n t reductions at a l l ages and the l a r g e r reductions at the o l d e r ages suggests that the decade of 19 61-19 71 s i g n a l s the f i n a l stage of demographic t r a n s i t i o n . Women of the ol d e r age groups had been reducing t h e i r f e r t i l i t y since at l e a s t 1921, the year when a g e - s p e c i f i c data f i r s t became a v a i l a b l e i n Canada. But, i t was only i n the decade 19 61-19 71, that younger women reduced t h e i r f e r t i l i t y a s i g n i f i c a n t amount, i n excess of 30 percent. 98 T a b l e XX A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y R a t e s , C a n a d a , 1 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 Rate per 1000 women aged: T o t a l ° — F e r t i l i t y 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Rate 1961 58.2 233.6 219.2 144.9 81.1 28.5 2.4 3.8 1971 40.1 134.4 142.0 77.3 33.6 9.4 0.6 2.2 • P e r c e n t Change 1961-71 -31.1 -42.5 -35.2 -46.7 -58.6 -67.0 -75.0 -42.0 E x c l u d e s Newfoundland. Source: V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1971 ( B i r t h s , t a b l e 1 0). C a u t i o n i s r e q u i r e d i n t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e t r e n d o f r e d u c e d a g e a t c h i l d b e a r i n g . S u c h r e d u c t i o n may mean t h a t women a r e b e a r i n g c h i l d r e n a t y o u n g e r a g e s a t e a c h b i r t h o r d e r . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e d u c t i o n may b e d u e t o a d e c l i n e i n b i r t h s a t h i g h e r o r d e r s . T h e d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e X X I s h e d some l i g h t o n t h i s m a t t e r . I t c a n b e s e e n t h a t , b e t w e e n 1 9 6 1 a n d 1 9 7 1 , a t e a c h b i r t h o r d e r , t h e m e d i a n a g e o f m o t h e r s i n c r e a s e d . A l s o , t h e r a t e o f c h i l d b e a r i n g d e c e l e r a t e d . I n o t h e r w o r d s , women i n 19 71 w e r e , r e l a t i v e t o 1 9 6 1 , p o s t p o n i n g b i r t h s t o some d e g r e e . T h e d e c l i n e i n t h e a v e r a g e a g e a t c h i l d b e a r i n g r e s u l t e d f r o m t h e s h a r p d e c l i n e i n c o m p l e t e d f a m i l y s i z e , i . e . , a c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f b i r t h s a t t h e l o w e r o r d e r s a n d , t h e r e f o r e , a t t h e y o u n g e r a g e s . Women i n 1 9 7 1 w e r e c o m p l e t i n g t h e i r f a m i l i e s a t y o u n g e r a g e s b e c a u s e t h e y w e r e f i n i s h i n g c h i l d b e a r i n g a t 99 Table XXI Aspects of Average C h i l d b e a r i n g Schedule Canada, 1 1961-1971 1961 1971 Median Age of Mother at each B i r t h Order: F i r s t 22.9 23.3 Second 25. 0 26. 2 Th i r d 27.7 28. 6 Fourth 29.5 30.8 F i f t h 31. 2 32.6 S i x t h 32.4 33.6 Seventh 33.6 35.0 Eighth + 36.6 37. 2 T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rate: 3.8 2.2 Median Age at Completion: 29.1 26.7 Rate of C h i l d b e a r i n g : 2 2.2 2.8 Excludes Newfoundland. 2Rate of c h i l d b e a r i n g r e f e r s to the average number of years per c h i l d between the f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d . C a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the average number of years between the f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d by the average number of c h i l d r e n born between the f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d . Sources: V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1961 (table B l l ) ; 1971 ( B i r t h s , t a b l e 13). Census of Canada: 1971 (cat. 92-715, t a b l e 7). lower orders, r a t h e r than bearing lower order c h i l d r e n at younger ages. As the V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s d i s c o n t i n u e d t a b u l a t i n g b i r t h s by c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the mother, f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s , as presented i n the d i s c u s s i o n of the t h i r d 100 stage, are not a v a i l a b l e . Given the lack of data, the f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n w i l l be s p e c u l a t i v e i n nature. Two f a c t o r s t h a t have been i d e n t i f i e d as determinants of recent lowered f e r t i l i t y i n Canada are the increased a v a i l a b i l i t y and e f f e c t i v e n e s s of con t r a c e p t i o n and the changing r o l e of women i n s o c i e t y ( G r i n d s t a f f , 1975). There can be no denying t h a t a v a i l a b i l i t y of cont r a c e p t i v e s has increased, w i t h the breaking down of the s o c i a l and l e g a l b a r r i e r s to d i s t r i b u t i o n and use, and that e f f e c t i v e n e s s has increased i n the era of the p i l l and the I.U.D. However, the degree t o which lowered f e r t i l i t y i s "caused" by advances i n cont r a c e p t i v e technology and d i s t r i b u t i o n has been s e r i o u s l y questioned (Blake and Das Gupta, 1974). The f a c t that Canadians were able to lower t h e i r f e r t i l i t y s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n an era i n which co n t r a c e p t i v e s were n e i t h e r widely a v a i l a b l e nor notably e f f e c t i v e suggests t h a t advances i n cont r a c e p t i v e technology and a v a i l a b i l i t y act as f a c i l i t a t o r s r a t h e r than as causal agents. I t remains a moot p o i n t whether the f e r t i l i t y l e v e l of 1971 could have been achieved i n the absence of increased a v a i l a b i l i t y of modern c o n t r a c e p t i v e s . However, the f a c t that the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e of 1971, 2.2 c h i l d r e n per woman, was achieved by c e r t a i n sub-groups of the Canadian pop u l a t i o n i n 1941 suggests the p o s s i b i l i t y , at l e a s t , t h a t the low l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y i n 19 71 could have been achieved 101 without modern con t r a c e p t i o n . The changing r o l e of women i n s o c i e t y r e l a t e s to increases i n a l t e r n a t i v e s to c h i l d b e a r i n g and c h i l d r e a r i n g . One a l t e r n a t i v e l i e s i n employment outside the home, which has two consequences i n terms of f e r t i l i t y behaviour. On the one hand, i t can serve to r e - d e f i n e , f o r women, t h e i r selves and t h e i r p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n to the wider s o c i e t y . On the other hand, i t means t h a t the worker r o l e and the domestic r o l e , which c o n t a i n c o n f l i c t i n g expectations and which both c a r r y heavy demands, i n terms of time and energy, have to be accommodated. The perceived advantages of the f i r s t consequence have l e d to an accommodation i n which the demands of the t r a d i t i o n a l , domestic r o l e have been l i g h t e n e d . One way to a f f e c t such an accommodation i s through lowered f e r t i l i t y . The existence of change i n the female r o l e i n s o c i e t y can be seen i n data concerning the increased labour force p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women i n the p e r i o d 1961-1971. The percentage of women aged 15-64 i n the labour force increased from 33.5 percent i n 1961 to 44.2 percent i n 1971. Even more s i g n i f i c a n t , the percent of married women grew from 23.7 percent i n 1961 to almost 40 percent i n 1971. Therefore, t h i s decade marked a s i g n i f i c a n t augmentation of women i n t o the labour force who, given the t r a d i t i o n r o l e of women i n s o c i e t y , t y p i c a l l y remained i n s i d e the home. These data, although i n d i c a t i n g s i g n i f i c a n t change 102 i n female r o l e behaviour, perhaps do not r e v e a l the magnitude of change th a t occurred i n the decade of the 6 0s. The emergence of the Women1s Movement operated to re-d e f i n e behaviour and perceptions i n ways that do not surface i n labour force p a r t i c i p a t i o n s t a t i s t i c s . Coupled w i t h the transformation of the r o l e of women i n s o c i e t y , and perhaps not unrelated w i t h i t , was the emergence of a f u l l - f l e d g e d consumer s o c i e t y . Aided by the forces of the media, a d v e r t i s i n g and easy a v a i l a b i l i t y of c r e d i t , the possession of "thi n g s " competed w i t h the ever-i n c r e a s i n g costs of c h i l d r e n i n an urban, i n d u s t r i a l environment and served as a status v e h i c l e i n i t s own r i g h t . The increased labour force p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women both r e f l e c t s and helps to create t h i s a l t e r e d set of p r i o r i t i e s . The three f a c t o r s of increased contraceptive technology and a v a i l a b i l i t y , the changing r o l e of women, and emphasis on consumption operated together to a f f e c t the f e r t i l i t y r e duction of the f o u r t h stage. Advances i n contra c e p t i o n placed f e r t i l i t y behaviour i n the realm of choice behaviour; the choice i t s e l f was s t r u c t u r e d by changing p r i o r i t i e s and perceptions as determined by transformations i n the wider s o c i e t y . 103 Footnotes The theory of demographic t r a n s i t i o n i n i t s e n t i r e t y i s concerned w i t h both m o r t a l i t y change and f e r t i l i t y change, i n r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h population growth. M o r t a l i t y i s g e n e r a l l y excluded from the a n a l y s i s here as a r e s u l t of severe data l i m i t a t i o n s and i n view of the general f i n d i n g t h a t m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s and trends are l e s s s e n s i t i v e to s o c i a l i n f l u e n c e s than f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s and trends. A l s o , the impact of f e r t i l i t y on f u t u r e population patterns i s greater than the impact of m o r t a l i t y . Demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory has been c r i t i c i z e d f o r a purported f a i l u r e to account f o r demographic processes i n the non-western world. Examples are C a l d w e l l (19 76) and O k e d i j i (1974). The d i r e c t a p p l i c a b i l i t y or i n a p p l i c a b i l i t y of demographic t r a n s i t i o n theory to non-western p o p u l a t i o n s , although an important issue i n i t s own r i g h t , i s not of concern here. Rather, the aim i s to examine f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n i n a western, European-based s o c i e t y i n l i g h t of the theory that was based on that p a r t i c u l a r experience. 'The knowledge and a c c e s s i b i l i t y of the means to c o n t r o l f e r t i l i t y s i m i l a r l y improves w i t h modernization. However, one cannot argue t h a t f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n i s caused by improvements i n c o n t r a c e p t i v e technology and the knowledge and a c c e s s i b i l i t y t hereof. I t seems l i k e l y t h a t improved means operate to f a c i l i t a t e f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n , once increased modernization has created to m o t i v a t i o n t o do so. The c i t i e s are Toronto, Hamilton, Kingston, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec C i t y , H a l i f a x , St. John, and Winnipeg. There e x i s t s c e r t a i n evidence t h a t suggests t h a t some establishments were much l a r g e r than t h i s average f i g u r e . In 1882, the Royal Commission enquiry i n t o the "working of the m i l l s and f a c t o r i e s of the Dominion and the labour employed t h e r e i n " i n v e s t i g a t e d 465 f a c t o r i e s employing, i n t o t a l , 43,571 persons, or an average of 94 persons per establishment (Cross, 1974:74). This method, which takes i n t o account age-sex d i f f e r e n c e s , employs the use of a standard set of a g e - s p e c i f i c r a t e s . The standard chosen was that of Canada as a whole i n 1921. The d i f f e r e n t i a l s are somewhat d i s t o r t e d , due to the f a c t t h a t data f o r the province of Quebec are l a c k i n g f o r 1921. The e x c l u s i o n of French Canadian women, who are almost t o t a l l y Canadian-born, operates to lower the t o t a l 104 f e r t i l i t y rate for the Canadian-born. If Quebec data were included, one would expect a higher rate for the Canadian-born, and, therefore, a smaller d i f f e r e n t i a l between the t o t a l foreign-born and the Canadian-born and a larger d i f f e r e n t i a l between the Canadian-born and the B r i t i s h -born . Estimated from data presented i n 1971 V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s (Births), table 5, with corrections for underregistration. CHAPTER IV COMPONENTS OF FERTILITY CHANGE F e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n r e s u l t s from the composite e f f e c t of change i n a number of v a r i a b l e s . In an e f f o r t to understand the underlying mechanisms at work i n determining f e r t i l i t y change i n Canada, the major f a c t o r s operating upon s o c i e t a l f e r t i l i t y are analysed i n t h i s chapter. These f a c t o r s , which i n c l u d e age-sex compositional f a c t o r s , female n u p t i a l i t y , m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and non-marital f e r t i l i t y , are examined i n order to assess the r o l e t h a t each plays i n f e r t i l i t y change i n Canada over the e n t i r e p e r i o d from 1851 to 1971 and i n each of the four stages of f e r t i l i t y . A l s o , t h i s chapter seeks to describe and analyze p r o v i n c i a l f e r t i l i t y i n terms of l e v e l , trend, and temporal convergence. The components of f e r t i l i t y change are exam-ined at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l , i n an e f f o r t t o understand the d i f f e r e n t i a l i n f l u e n c e s at work, and thereby, more f u l l y e x p l a i n p r o v i n c i a l f e r t i l i t y v a r i a t i o n . The importance of a component a n a l y s i s i n the Canadian case l i e s i n the co m p l e x i t i e s of f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n t h a t have come to l i g h t i n recent research concerning the European experience (Coale, 1969; Coale, 105 106 1973; Demeny, 1968; Knodel, 1974; L i v i - B a c c i , 1971; L i v i -B a c c i , 19 77; van de Walle, 19 68; van de Walle and Knodel, 1967). T h i s Princeton-based r e s e a r c h has focussed p a r t i c u l a r l y on the v a r i a b l e s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y i n the de t e r m i n a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and trends i n the f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n o f v a r i o u s European s o c i e t i e s . In t h i s c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n , f e r t i l i t y l e v e l departs from the p h y s i o l o g i c a l maximum as a r e s u l t o f the o p e r a t i o n of two main types of c o n t r o l : the l i m i t a t i o n o f f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage, or what has been termed non-Mal t h u s i a n c o n t r o l , and the l i m i t a t i o n of marriage w i t h i n a p o p u l a t i o n , M a l t h u s i a n c o n t r o l . A p o p u l a t i o n can r e s o r t to one, or both, mechanisms i n an e f f o r t t o l i m i t f e r t i l i t y . Wide v a r i a t i o n has been found, between s o c i e t i e s and between d i f f e r e n t p r o v i n c e s w i t h i n European n a t i o n a l boundaries, i n l e v e l of g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y p r i o r t o the onset of s u s t a i n e d d e c l i n e . T h i s v a r i a t i o n i s due to the combined e f f e c t s of d i f f e r e n c e s i n l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and l e v e l of female n u p t i a l i t y . That is., p r i o r t o major s o c i a l change t h a t a f f e c t e d s u s t a i n e d f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n , European p o p u l a t i o n s d i f f e r e d i n f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and i n the mechanisms t h a t determine t h a t l e v e l . A l s o , two p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s may have achieved t h a t l e v e l through a d i f f e r e n t i a l mixture o f components. The t i m i n g and path o f s u s t a i n e d f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i s , s i m i l a r l y , determined by the j o i n t e f f e c t s o f the components 107 of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y . In pre-modern western European s o c i e t i e s , f e r t i l i t y d i d not approach maximum l e v e l s . Departure from maximum l e v e l s was, i n larg e p a r t , achieved through marriage l i m i t a t i o n , or the Malthusian c o n t r o l mechanism. However, evidence suggests t h a t d e l i b e r a t e c o n t r o l of f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage occurred as w e l l , at l e a s t i n some western populations (Coale, 1973:59). The sustained f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , which commenced i n most western European c o u n t r i e s i n the l a s t decades of the 1800s, was accomplished through the widespread adoption of c o n t r o l of f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage, although Malthusian c o n t r o l continued t o operate as w e l l . A f t e r s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y had been accomplished, the mechanism of marriage l i m i t a t i o n ceased to operate i n i t s former f a s h i o n . Beginning i n the 1940s, western European s o c i e t i e s abandoned the p a t t e r n of l a t e age at marriage and high prevalence of permanent non-marriage (Hajnal, 1965:101). As a r e s u l t , l e v e l s of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y rose r a t h e r sharply before d e c l i n e recontinued. Opinions d i f f e r as to the nature of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the mechanisms of Malthusian and non-Malthusian c o n t r o l . On the one hand, Coale (1969:17) argues t h a t reduction i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y operated i n a causal way t o increase n u p t i a l i t y . Van de Walle (1968:499), on the other hand, argues t h a t the abandonment of Malthusian c o n t r o l was a " n a t u r a l tendency" which the d e c l i n e s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y 108 made p o s s i b l e . Against the background of t h i s general p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e , wide p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n s have been observed, i n terms of the p r e - d e c l i n e mix of the l e v e l s of the components of f e r t i l i t y , the timing of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , and the r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l s of socio-economic development and l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . Coale (197 3: 67) has p o s i t e d two hypotheses, both emphasizing c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s , to account f o r the observation t h a t f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n Europe d i s p l a y e d a strong r e g i o n a l p a t t e r n . One hypothesis s t a t e s t h a t the c u l t u r e operating i n a given region determines the extent of r e s i s t a n c e that f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l w i t h i n marriage w i l l meet. The second hypothesis focusses upon the mechanism of d i f f u s i o n of modern demographic behaviour and ideas. Regions, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a common language and c u l t u r e , act as n a t u r a l boundaries w i t h i n which d i f f u s i o n , through i m i t a t i o n and/or i n f o r m a l communication, can occur. S i m i l a r l y , regions act as b a r r i e r s c o n f i n i n g the spread of c o n t r o l l e d f e r t i l i t y . The complexity of European f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , i n terms of the d i f f e r e n t i a l f a c t o r s determining trend and i n the extent of r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n , i l l u s t r a t e s the importance of a component a n a l y s i s f o r the comprehension of Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . An understanding of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e can only be accomplished i f the under-l y i n g mechanisms so determinant are sorted out. 109 C o m p o n e n t A n a l y s i s o f C a n a d i a n F e r t i l i t y A n y g i v e n v a l u e o f t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e i s a c t u a l l y t h e c o m p o s i t e o f a n u m b e r o f f a c t o r s o p e r a t i n g t o g e t h e r , s u c h a s a g e - s e x d i s t r i b u t i o n , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f f e m a l e s m a r r i e d ( o r u n m a r r i e d ) , a n d t h e f e r t i l i t y o f m a r r i e d a n d u n m a r r i e d w o m e n . T h e s e f a c t o r s a r e r e l a t e d t o g e t h e r a r i t h m e t i c a l l y s u c h t h a t : (1) B / T = B / F * X F * / F X F / T w h e r e : B = t o t a l b i r t h s F * = 1000 w o m e n 15-49 y e a r s F = 1000 t o t a l w o m e n T = 1000 t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n a n d (2) B / F * = L B / M * x M * / F * + I B / U M * X U M * / F * w h e r e : L B = t o t a l l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h s I B = t o t a l i l l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h s M * = 1000 m a r r i e d w o m e n 15-49 y e a r s U M * - 1000 u n m a r r i e d w o m e n 15-49 y e a r s F r o m e x p r e s s i o n (1), i t c a n b e s e e n t h a t t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e ( B / T ) i s t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e ( B / F * ) a n d t w o d e m o g r a p h i c s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s , t h e s e x r a t i o a n d t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e f e m a l e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e c h i l d -b e a r i n g a g e s . E x p r e s s i o n (2) s h o w s t h a t t h e g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i s i t s e l f a f u n c t i o n o f f o u r f a c t o r s , t w o o f w h i c h a r e r e l a t e d t o f e r t i l i t y , L B / M * o r t h e m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e a n d I B / U M * o r t h e n o n - m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , a n d t w o o f w h i c h a r e r e l a t e d t o f e m a l e n u p t i a l i t y , M * / F * o r t h e p r o p o r t i o n m a r r i e d a n d i t s c o n v e r s e , U M * / F * , t h e 110 p r o p o r t i o n unmarried. Thus, an a n a l y s i s of the course of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e r e q u i r e s an examination of the r o l e s played by demographic f a c t o r s , marriage f a c t o r s , and " f e r t i l i t y " f a c t o r s . Table XXII presents data f o r the observed l e v e l s of the f a c t o r s s p e c i f i e d by expressions (1) and (2). These data provide a general overview of the changes t h a t occurred i n the r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s . On the broadest l e v e l , i t can be seen th a t the trend of the general f e r t i l i t y r ate p a r a l l e l e d c l o s e l y the trend of the crude b i r t h r a t e , due to the r e l a t i v e l y small changes o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n the age-sex d i s t r i b u t i o n a l f a c t o r s . Breaking down the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n t o i t s c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s , i t can be noted th a t the o v e r a l l t r e n d i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was one of d e c l i n e , except f o r the decade spanning the 40s and, as such, d i f f e r e d from the p a t t e r n of reduction e x h i b i t e d by the crude b i r t h r a t e and the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . The data presented i n Table XXII provide the h i n t t h a t a changing marriage p a t t e r n , as measured by the p r o p o r t i o n of women aged 15-49 married, was a f a c t o r accounting f o r the d i s p a r i t y between the trend of the crude b i r t h rate and the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , on the one hand, and the m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , on the other. The p a t t e r n of change i n the pr o p o r t i o n married, one of s l i g h t d e c l i n e i n the l a t t e r h a l f of the nineteenth Century f o l l o w e d by an upswing i n the e a r l y years of t h i s century and another more marked increase, I l l T a b l e XXII Observed V a l u e s of the Components of t h e Crude B i r t h Rate and the G e n e r a l F e r t i l i t y Rate Canada, 1 1851-1971 Year LB/M* x M*/F* + IB/UM* 6 x UM*/F* = B/F* x F*/F x F/T = B/T 1851 2 357.0 .5670 9.5 .4330 206.5 .4678 .4849 46.8 1861 3 340.2 .5163 7.4 .4837 179.2 .4785 .4860 41.7 1871 4 311.6 .5179 6.8 .4821 164.7 .4821 .4937 39.2 1881 276.9 .5107 5.9 .4893 144.2 .4958 .4939 35.3 1891 253.6 .5078 5.3 .4922 131.4 .5126 .4816 32.4 1901 - - • - - 133.4 .5061 .4877 32.9 1911 227.9 .5587 5.9 .4413 129.9 .5101 .4697 ' 31.1 1921 213.1 .5880 . 6 . 8 .4120 128.1 .5031 .4845 . 31.2 1931 170.9 .5620 7.9 .4380 99.5 .5140 .4821 24.7 1941 151.0 .5669 8.1 .4331 89.1 .5269 .4872 22.9 1951 5 160.3 .6608 12.4 .3392 110.1 .5001 .4940 27.2 1961 5 154.7 .6957 16.7 .3043 112.7 .4680 .4945 26.0 1971 5 95.4 .6543 17.9 .3457 68.6 .4903 .4995 16.8 R e f e r s t o p r e s e n t a r e a of Canada, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland, u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e s t a t e d . R e f e r s t o Upper Canada ( O n t a r i o ) and Lower Canada (Quebec). R e f e r s t o Upper Canada, Lower Canada and Nova S c o t i a . ^ R e f e r s t o O n t a r i o , Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 5 I n c l u d e s Newfoundland. 6 2 p e r c e n t i l l e g i t i m a c y assumed u n t i l 1921. Sources: Data on b i r t h s were taken from the e s t i m a t i o n s performed i n Chapter I I and V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1971 ( B i r t h s , t a b l e s 5 and 11). Data on t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , male and female p o p u l a t i o n , and females aged 15-49 were taken from the f o l l o w i n g census s t a t i s t i c s . Censuses o f Canada: 1851 (v. 1, app e n d i c e s 5 and 6); 1861 (v. 1, G e n e r a l A b s t r a c t of Ages; 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 9 ); 1971 ( c a t . 92-715, t a b l e 7 ) . Data on m a r i t a l s t a t u s were e x t r a c t e d from the f o l l o w i n g Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 1, a p p e n d i c e s 5 and 6 ) ; 1861 (v. 1, G e n e r a l A b s t r a c t of Ag e s ) ; 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 8 ) ; 1881 (v. 4, t a b l e G); 1891 (v. 4, t a b l e H); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 29); 1931 (v. 3, t a b l e 13); 1941 (v. 3, t a b l e 7 ); 1951 (v. 2, t a b l e 2 ); 1961 ( c a t . 92-552, t a b l e 78); 1971 ( c a t . 92-730, t a b l e 1 ) . 112 a f t e r W o r l d War I I , a f f e c t e d t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e , v i a t h e g e n e r a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , w i t h o u t d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c i n g t h e m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . The p a t t e r n o f change i n non-m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was one o f r e l a t i v e c o n s t a n c y u n t i l 1931 when t h e r a t e began t o s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s e . " ^ The t r e n d i n n o n - m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was u n i q u e , n o t p a r a l l e l i n g t h e t r e n d i n any o f t h e o t h e r f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y . I n o r d e r t o measure t h e " p u r e " e f f e c t o f e a c h o f t h e above components on f e r t i l i t y l e v e l , a s e r i e s o f s t a n d a r d i z e d r a t e s was c o n s t r u c t e d . The o b j e c t o f t h e s t a n d a r i z a t i o n p r o c e d u r e i s t o d e t e r m i n e what p a r t o f t h e o b s e r v e d change i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y r e s u l t s s o l e l y f r o m change i n e a c h component. F o r b o t h e x p r e s s i o n s (1) and ( 2 ) , o n l y one t e r m i n t h e e q u a t i o n i s a l l o w e d t o t a k e on i t s r e a l i z e d o r o b s e r v e d v a l u e , w h i l e t h e o t h e r t e r m s a r e h e l d c o n s t a n t a t t h e i r 1851 v a l u e , r e s u l t i n g i n a h y p o t h e t i c a l r a t e w h i c h r e f l e c t s o n l y t h e e f f e c t o f t h e v a r i a b l e t h a t i s a l l o w e d t o v a r y . E a c h t e r m i n t h e e q u a t i o n i s t r e a t e d i n t h i s f a s h i o n , t h e r e b y p a r c e l l i n g o u t t h e o b s e r v e d c h a n g e s i n 2 f e r t i l i t y t o t h e c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s . T a b l e s X X I I I (a) and X X I I I (b) p r e s e n t t h e s t a n d a r d i z e d r a t e s . L o o k i n g f i r s t a t t h e h y p o t h e t i c a l o r s t a n d a r d i z e d c r u d e b i r t h r a t e s , i t c a n be s e e n t h a t t h e e f f e c t s o f s e x r a t i o a n d age d i s t r i b u t i o n c h a n g e s were v e r y m i n o r , w i t h a s l i g h t t e n d e n c y o p e r a t i n g t o i n f l a t e o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and, t h e r e f o r e , t o a v e r y s m a l l d e g r e e , 113 Table XXIII (a) Standardized Crude Canada, 1 1851 B i r t h -1971 Rates Year B/F* Allowed to Vary F*/F Only: F/T 1851 2 46.8 46.8 46.8 1861 3 40.7 47.9 47.0 1871^ 37. 3 48.3 47.7 1881 32.7 49.7 47.7 1891 29. 8 51. 3 46.5 1901 30. 2 50.7 47.1 1911 29. 5 51.1 45.4 1921 29.1 50.4 46. 8 1931 22.6 51.5 46.6 1941 20.2 52.8 47.1 1951 5 25 .0 50.1 47.7 1961 5 25. 6 46.9 47.8 1971 5 15 . 6 49.1 48.3 Table XXIII (b) Standardized General F e r t i l i t y Rates Canada, 1 1851-1971 Year LB/M* Allowed to Vary M*/F*6 Only: IB/UM* 1851 2 206.5 206.5 206.5 1861 3 197. 0 188. 9 205. 6 1871 4 180 . 8 189.5 205. 4 1881 161.1 187. 0 205.0 1891 147.9 186.0 204. 7 1901 - - -1911 133. 4 203. 7 205.0 1921 125. 0 213. 9 205.4 114 Table XXIII (b), Continued Year LB/M* Allowed to Vary M*/F* 6Only: IB/UM* 1931 101. 0 204. 8 205. 8 1941 89.7 206.5 205.9 1951 5 95.0 239.1 207. 8 1961 5 91. 8 251.3 209.7 1971 5 58.2 236.9 210/2 1 R e f e r s to present area of Canada, excluding Newfoundland, unless otherwise s t a t e d . 2 R e f e r s to Upper Canada (Ontario) and Lower Canada (Quebec). 3Refers t o Upper Canada, Lower Canada and Nova S c o t i a . ^Refers to Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 5 I n c l u d e s Newfoundland. 6 I s e q u i v a l e n t to a l l o w i n g UM*/F* t o vary as UM*/F* equals 1 - (M*/F*). Source: Table XXII. hamper the process of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . In other words, i f the age-sex composition of Canada had remained at i t s 1851 l e v e l , the crude b i r t h rate i n Canada i n subsequent years would have been a l i t t l e lower, f o r example, 15.6 i n 19 71 i n s t e a d of the observed 16.8. The overwhelmingly important component i n expression (1) was the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , the pure e f f e c t of which was t o lower the Canadian crude b i r t h rate by over 31 p o i n t s during the p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The standardized general f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , as 115 presented i n Table XXIII (b) r e v e a l the important r o l e that d e c l i n e s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y played i n Canadian f e r t i l i t y r e d uction. Keeping the p r o p o r t i o n of females married (and, thus, unmarried, as w e l l ) and non-marital f e r t i l i t y constant at 1851 l e v e l s , i t can be seen that the e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e was s u b s t a n t i a l and r e l a t i v e l y steady. The f l u c t u a t i o n s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the crude b i r t h rate and the general f e r t i l i t y rate are not embodied i n the h y p o t h e t i c a l m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . I f change i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y had been the sole f a c t o r at work, Canadian s o c i e t a l f e r t i l i t y would not have e x h i b i t e d the uneven trend that i t d i d . In c o n t r a s t w i t h the steady, d e c l i n i n g e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , changes i n Canadian n u p t i a l i t y were uneven, having an o v e r a l l i n f l a t i o n a r y e f f e c t . As shown i n Table XXIII (b), the pure e f f e c t of changing marriage patterns was t o r a i s e the general f e r t i l i t y rate by over 30 p o i n t s . A l s o , the d i r e c t i o n of the e f f e c t v a r i e d over time. In the l a t t e r h a l f of the nineteenth Century, the e f f e c t of n u p t i a l i t y change was to lower general f e r t i l i t y whereas i n more recent times, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the years f o l l o w i n g World War I I , the e f f e c t was i n the opposite d i r e c t i o n , to r a i s e general f e r t i l i t y . These h y p o t h e t i c a l general f e r t i l i t y r a t e s i l l u s t r a t e two important f a c t s concerning Canadian f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . One, the e f f e c t of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y f a r 116 outweighed the e f f e c t of changing n u p t i a l i t y i n terms of the extent of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y change. The f a c t t h a t o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e d as much as i t d i d a t t e s t s to the importance of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y over and above the e f f e c t of g e n e r a l l y i n c r e a s i n g n u p t i a l i t y . Two, much of the unevenness e x h i b i t e d by the Canadian s o c i e t a l f e r t i l i t y t r e nd can be a t t r i b u t e d to the e f f e c t s of a f l u c t u a t i n g n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e . This compositional a n a l y s i s can shed some l i g h t on the nature of f e r t i l i t y change w i t h i n the o u t l i n e d four stages. I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d that the f i r s t stage, from 1851 to 1891, was one of major d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y , as measured by both the crude b i r t h rate and the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . None of the d e c l i n e was due to changes i n age-sex d i s t r i b u t i o n a l f a c t o r s ; as Table XXIII (a) shows, the e f f e c t of the female age composition v a r i a b l e , to increase f e r t i l i t y , was greater than the s l i g h t decreasing e f f e c t of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e . The d e c l i n e s experienced i n t h i s p e r i o d were the r e s u l t of the combined e f f e c t s of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and d e c l i n i n g female n u p t i a l i t y . Although the e f f e c t of decreasing m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y out-weighed the e f f e c t of decreasing n u p t i a l i t y f o r the p e r i o d as a whole, the important f a c t to note i s tha t the two v a r i a b l e s were operating together, r e i n f o r c i n g one another i n the determination of major f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . The e f f e c t of the n u p t i a l i t y f a c t o r was p a r t i c u l a r l y strong i n the f i r s t decade of the p e r i o d , 1851-1861, surpassing the e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . In tha t decade, the pure e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e on the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e was l e s s than 5 percent whereas the pure e f f e c t of n u p t i a l i t y d e c l i n e approached 9 percent. This f a c t i s a consequential one i n terms of the issue of the onset of d e c l i n e . I f one assumes a 10 percent d e c l i n e i n " f e r t i l i t y " as i n d i c a t i v e of the commencement of t r a n s i t i o n , i t matters very much what measure of f e r t i l i t y i s u t i l i z e d . As discussed e a r l i e r , the decade 1851-1861 witnessed a d e c l i n e i n excess of 10 percent i n both the crude b i r t h r a t e and the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . That d e c l i n e was only p a r t i a l l y due t o l i m i t a t i o n of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and was, i n large p a r t , the r e s u l t of a rat h e r s u b s t a n t i a l d e c l i n e i n p r o p o r t i o n of the female po p u l a t i o n married. This f a c t puts i n t o question the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Often, a d e c l i n e i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y i n excess of 10 percent i s taken as "meaning" t h a t f e r t i l i t y behaviour i s moving w i t h i n the realm of d e l i b e r a t e and conscious c o n t r o l . Underlying such an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s one of two assumptions: t h a t the magnitude of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e r e f l e c t s the magnitude of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e ; or that decreases i n n u p t i a l i t y r e f l e c t a d e l i b e r a t e e f f o r t to l i m i t f a m i l y s i z e at the l e v e l of the i n d i v i d u a l . The f i r s t assumption i s c l e a r l y i n v a l i d i n the 118 Canadian case, as the d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y exceeded the d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s e a r l y decade. The second assumption i s a more d i f f i c u l t one to deal w i t h given the c o n s t r a i n t s of secondary data. On the one hand, i t has been argued t h a t lowered n u p t i a l i t y i s a mechanism con s c i o u s l y used by i n d i v i d u a l s i n an attempt to c u r t a i l f a m i l y s i z e (Drake, 1972). Others, however, have suggested th a t the d e c i s i o n t o postpone marriage stems from a d i f f e r e n t set of motivations than the d e c i s i o n to c o n t r o l f a m i l y s i z e w i t h i n marriage, although the e f f e c t s on o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l may be s i m i l a r (Coale, 1969:7; van de Walle, 1972:149). Support f o r t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n l i e s i n the age p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y change th a t i s commonly detected w i t h i n populations at the e a r l y stages of f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . Within a population beginning voluntary b i r t h c o n t r o l , the i n i t i a t i n g segment i s couples i n which the woman i s i n the l a t e r years of c h i l d b e a r i n g and of high p a r i t y . In other words, attempts t o l i m i t f a m i l y s i z e are made l a t e i n married l i f e . The second argument appears to be more p l a u s i b l e i n the Canadian case. Although data concerning a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y are l a c k i n g f o r t h i s e a r l y p e r i o d , other data are supportive of the argument made by Coale and van de Walle. I f n u p t i a l i t y and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y behaviour r e f l e c t e d the same underlying set of moti v a t i o n s , one would expect that the r e s p e c t i v e trends would bear a constant r e l a t i o n s h i p to one another, 119 although not n e c e s s a r i l y a p o s i t i v e one, i n the s t a t i s t i c a l sense. However, i n t h i s f i r s t f e r t i l i t y stage, no such p a r a l l e l i s m e x i s t e d . While the e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e was r e l a t i v e l y even throughout the p e r i o d , the e f f e c t of n u p t i a l i t y was marked i n the f i r s t decade of the p e r i o d and minor a f t e r t h a t . Therefore, the d e c l i n e i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n the decade 1851-1861 should be i n t e r p r e t e d w i t h c a u t i o n , as i t r e s u l t e d from the j o i n t e f f e c t s of two v a r i a b l e s , only one of which may be i n t e r p r e t e d as i n d i c a t i n g d e l i b e r a t e f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l . Taking d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y as a more v a l i d i n d i c a t o r of the onset of the d e l i b e r a t e attempt to c o n t r o l f a m i l y s i z e , 1871 may be i d e n t i f i e d as the t h r e s h o l d year i n terms of t i m i n g of d e c l i n e i n Canada, as i t was then t h a t d e c l i n e from the 1851 l e v e l exceeded 10 percent. The f a c t t h a t n u p t i a l i t y and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y operated j o i n t l y , a f f e c t i n g o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , helps to e x p l a i n the large reduction experienced i n the f i r s t stage of f e r t i l i t y . The response to i n i t i a l i n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n was t w o - f o l d , thus c r e a t i n g a d e c l i n e l a r g e r than i f only one mechanism had been at work. Viewed i n t h i s l i g h t , major f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n the face of only emergent s o c i a l change, seems l e s s anomalous. In the second p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y i n Canada, from 1891 to 19 21, a very d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n emerged i n terms of 120 the r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n of the components of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y . I t w i l l be remembered th a t t h i s p e r i o d was one i n which l i t t l e change was r e g i s t e r e d i n crude b i r t h and general f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . A n a l y s i s of the c o n s t i t u e n t elements warns against the inference that t h i s p e r i o d was one of demographic s t a b i l i t y . As Table XXIII (b) r e v e a l s , t h i s p e r i o d witnessed a c o n t i n u a t i o n of the trend of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , such t h a t the pure e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y change upon the general f e r t i l i t y r ate was an approximate 15 percent r e d u c t i o n from the 1891 l e v e l . This e f f e c t was matched by a 15 percent n u p t i a l i t y e f f e c t , but i n the opposite d i r e c t i o n , t h a t of increase. In other words, the two f a c t o r s worked to cancel one another out and, thus, created a 30 year p e r i o d w i t h the appearance of constancy, but only the appearance. Whereas i n the f i r s t p e r i o d m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y changes operated together to j o i n t l y lower o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l , w i t h m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y reductions e x e r t i n g the stronger i n f l u e n c e , i n the second p e r i o d the two v a r i a b l e s e x e r c i s e d an approximately equal i n f l u e n c e , but i n opposing d i r e c t i o n s . ^ The e f f e c t of the age-sex compositional v a r i a b l e s on the crude b i r t h r a t e was again small i n absolute terms. However, i n r e l a t i v e terms, the v a r i a b l e of female age composition exerted a d e c l i n i n g e f f e c t t h a t was greater than the very s l i g h t d e c l i n i n g e f f e c t of general f e r t i l i t y r ate 121 upon the crude b i r t h r a t e . Therefore, the a n a l y s i s of components i n the second stage of f e r t i l i t y r e v e a l s a steady d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , as i s expected given the s u b s t a n t i a l growth i n i n d u s t r y and continued u r b a n i z a t i o n t h a t occurred between 1891 and 1921. As Canada was transformed i n t o an urban, i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y , f e r t i l i t y w i t h i n marriage e x h i b i t e d a continued, downward trend, i n response to new s o c i a l f o r c e s . However, that trend was n u l l i f i e d by an increase i n the p r o p o r t i o n of married females aged 15-49. One i s forced to ask why female n u p t i a l i t y r e g i s t e r e d such increases during t h i s p e r i o d , a development q u i t e u n l i k e that experienced i n western European populations. I t i s suggested t h a t the answer l i e s i n the composition of the immigrants e n t e r i n g Canada i n the e a r l y decades of the twentieth Century. As discussed p r e v i o u s l y , t h i s i n - m i g r a t i o n was dominated by persons of o r i g i n s other than western European. I t has been found t h a t the h i s t o r i c a l marriage p a t t e r n i n western Europe d i f f e r e d from that i n the non-western p a r t s of Europe, w i t h the l a t t e r c h a r a c t e r i z e d by much higher proportions married, e s p e c i a l l y i n the case of women (Hajna.l, 1965). Thus, the l a r g e - s c a l e i n - m i g r a t i o n of persons from areas of Europe t y p i f i e d by high proportions married could account f o r the increase r e g i s t e r e d i n female n u p t i a l i t y . In t h i s view, then, no i n t e r n a l l y generated f a c t o r s operated to r a i s e female n u p t i a l i t y . 122 The t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y change, from 1921 to 1961 was, as noted p r e v i o u s l y , a p e r i o d of r a t h e r large f l u c t u a t i o n i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l , although the general trend was downward wi t h the 19 61 crude b i r t h r a t e , f o r example, about 5 p o i n t s lower than the 1921 l e v e l . Declines i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y were s o l e l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the downward trend of general f e r t i l i t y , as revealed i n Table XXIII (b). However, the e n t i r e p e r i o d d i d not experience d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y ; there was an upswing i n 1951 which p a r t i a l l y accounts f o r the lack of constancy w i t h i n the p e r i o d . Nevertheless, the pure e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i n t h i s p e r i o d was t o lower general f e r t i l i t y 26.5 percent from the standardized 1921 l e v e l , an i n f l u e n c e almost as strong as t h a t o c c u r r i n g during the f i r s t p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y change i n Canada. Yet, the net e f f e c t was considerably smaller i n the t h i r d p e r i o d , due to the f a c t t h a t other v a r i a b l e s operated together to i n h i b i t the down-ward trend. Of p a r t i c u l a r importance was the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e which exerted an i n f l u e n c e the pure e f f e c t of which was to increase general f e r t i l i t y 17.5 percent over the 1921 l e v e l . The e f f e c t of n u p t i a l i t y increase between 1941 and 1951, coupled w i t h a concomitant, although comparatively s m a l l e r , increase i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , e x p l a i n s the high o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l experienced by Canada i n the years f o l l o w i n g World War I I . The p o s i t i v e i . e . , i n f l a t i o n a r y , i n f l u e n c e of n u p t i a l i t y continued operating i n 1961 to such 123 an extent t h a t i t negated the i n f l u e n c e of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and, thus, created a general f e r t i l i t y r a te i n 1961 t h a t exceeded the 1951 l e v e l . The v a r i a b l e of non-marital f e r t i l i t y a l s o e x e r c i s e d a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t upon o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y during t h i s p e r i o d . Increases i n i l l e g i t i m a c y operated to r a i s e general f e r t i l i t y approximately 2 percent over the standardized 19 21 l e v e l , as i n d i c a t e d i n Table XXIII (b). The i n f l u e n c e of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e was s i m i l a r to the non-marital f e r t i l i t y v a r i a b l e , a small e f f e c t i n the upward d i r e c t i o n , as seen i n Table XXIII (a). However, the female age composition v a r i a b l e was more s i g n i f i c a n t and i n the oppo-s i t e d i r e c t i o n , downward. The major, downward change i n the female age v a r i a b l e occurred between 1951 and 1961, probably r e f l e c t i n g the f a c t that a p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y smaller cohort of women were e n t e r i n g the c h i l d b e a r i n g years during the decade of the 5 0s as a r e s u l t of the low f e r t i l i t y of the depression years. The v a r i a b l e of female age composition operated i n conjunction w i t h the v a r i a b l e of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y to a f f e c t the o v e r a l l d e c l i n e experienced i n the p e r i o d , whereas the other three f a c t o r s , n u p t i a l i t y , non-m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , and the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e acted j o i n t l y to dampen the downward trend. Thus, the t h i r d stage witnessed a c o n t i n u a t i o n i n the trend of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . The one i n t e r r u p t i o n i n the trend of d e c l i n e , the increase o c c u r r i n g 124 between 1941 and 1951, may be i n t e r p r e t e d , i n p a r t , as the r e s u l t of a "making up" of b i r t h s postponed by the war. Increasing n u p t i a l i t y operated to n u l l i f y the trend of decrease i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , as i n the second stage of f e r t i l i t y . . However, whereas Canada was unique i n experiencing increases i n female n u p t i a l i t y i n the e a r l y decades of the t w e n t i e t h Century, the trend of i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n s married t h a t occurred at mid-century was not a d i s t i n c t i v e l y Canadian phenomenon. Rather, a l l western populations experienced a s u b s t a n t i a l r i s e i n female n u p t i a l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y a f t e r World War I I . The l a s t p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y change, and the s h o r t e s t i n time, the decade of the 6 0s, was one i n which major d e c l i n e s i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y were r e g i s t e r e d . General f e r t i l i t y r ate underwent a d e c l i n e approaching 40 percent and 30.7 percent of the t o t a l d e c l i n e from 1851 to 19 71 occurred w i t h i n t h i s p e r i o d . Again, the major f a c t o r o p e r a t i n g was m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y which depressed general f e r t i l i t y n e a r l y 37 percent from the 1961 standardized l e v e l . In t h i s p e r i o d , the i n f l u e n c e of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was r e i n f o r c e d by a lowering female n u p t i a l i t y . Although the i n f l u e n c e of n u p t i a l i t y was small i n comparison w i t h t h a t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , the important p o i n t to note i s t h a t , l i k e the f i r s t f e r t i l i t y stage and u n l i k e the second and t h i r d stages, the two f a c t o r s operated together to a f f e c t o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . 125 Whereas n u p t i a l i t y and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i n f l u e n c e d general f e r t i l i t y i n a downward d i r e c t i o n , the other f a c t o r s operated to i n h i b i t f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n the f o u r t h stage of f e r t i l i t y . Both the demographic f a c t o r s , and p a r t i c u l a r l y the female age composition v a r i a b l e , exerted an e f f e c t to r a i s e general f e r t i l i t y . S i m i l a r l y , the e f f e c t of non-m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was i n f l a t i o n a r y . The e f f e c t s of these three f a c t o r s were small i n comparison w i t h the e f f e c t s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y , working to negate the o v e r a l l d e c l i n e only s l i g h t l y . This compositional a n a l y s i s has revealed the over-whelmingly important r o l e that d e c l i n e s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y played i n the o v e r a l l t r e n d of f e r t i l i t y change i n Canada from 1851 to 1971. Not only d i d t h i s v a r i a b l e play the l a r g e s t r o l e i n a f f e c t i n g f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , but the most c o n s i s t e n t one as w e l l . In a l l four stages of f e r t i l i t y , the i n f l u e n c e of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was negative or f e r t i l i t y - i n h i b i t i n g . In c o n t r a s t , the r o l e of female n u p t i a l i t y , the second most i n f l u e n t i a l v a r i a b l e i n terms of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y change, was markedly i n c o n s i s t e n t , although the o v e r a l l e f f e c t was p o s i t i v e or f e r t i l i t y -enhancing. In the f i r s t and f o u r t h periods of f e r t i l i t y , the e f f e c t of female n u p t i a l i t y on general f e r t i l i t y was negative, r e i n f o r c i n g the e f f e c t of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , whereas i n the two middle p e r i o d s , the i n f l u e n c e of female n u p t i a l i t y was p o s i t i v e , s e r v i n g to negate, to some degree, 126 the i n f l u e n c e of the m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y f a c t o r . This negating i n f l u e n c e was p a r t i c u l a r l y strong i n the second p e r i o d and was re s p o n s i b l e f o r the observed p l a t e a u i n f e r t i l i t y l e v e l . Therefore, the e f f e c t of changes i n female n u p t i a l i t y was two-fold: i t hampered d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y and i t worked to create an unevenness i n the trend of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y i n Canada. The i n f l u e n c e of the remaining three v a r i a b l e s , the sex r a t i o f a c t o r , the female age composition f a c t o r and the non-marital f e r t i l i t y f a c t o r , was small f o r the e n t i r e p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n and f o r each f e r t i l i t y p e r i o d as w e l l . The o v e r a l l e f f e c t of a l l three f a c t o r s was p o s i t i v e , although some w i t h i n - p e r i o d v a r i a t i o n e x i s t e d . Although the o v e r a l l e f f e c t of a l l v a r i a b l e s except the m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y v a r i a b l e was p o s i t i v e , the observed crude b i r t h rate d e c l i n e d 30 p o i n t s between 1851 and 19 71. The standardized crude b i r t h r a t e , a l l o w i n g only general f e r t i l i t y r ate to vary, d e c l i n e d 31.2 p o i n t s over the same p e r i o d . The a c t u a l general f e r t i l i t y r a t e decreased 137.9 p o i n t s ; the standardized general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , a l l o w i n g only m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y to assume i t s r e a l i z e d value, d e c l i n e d 148.3 p o i n t s . Thus, the observed 19 71 r a t e s were only s l i g h t l y higher than they would have been had the f e r t i l i t y - e n h a n c i n g f a c t o r s not been o p e r a t i v e , thereby i l l u s t r a t i n g the extreme importance of the one c o n s i s t e n t l y operating f e r t i l i t y - d a m p e n i n g f a c t o r , m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . 127 T h a t r e d u c t i o n s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y p l a y e d t h e l a r g e s t r o l e i n a f f e c t i n g f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n Canada i s i n k e e p i n g w i t h t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f w e s t e r n p o p u l a t i o n s . S i m i l a r l y , t h e i n c r e a s e i n f e m a l e n u p t i a l i t y a f t e r W o r l d War I I , w h i c h o p e r a t e d t o i n f l a t e o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y , was a d e v e l o p m e n t common t o w e s t e r n p o p u l a t i o n s . The u n i q u e n e s s o f t h e C a n a d i a n f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n , r e l a t i v e t o t h a t o f w e s t e r n E u r o p e , l i e s i n t h e h i g h l e v e l s o f f e r t i l i t y a t commencement o f d e c l i n e , t h e m a g n i t u d e o f e a r l y d e c l i n e , and t h e u n e v e n n e s s i n t h e t r e n d o f d e c l i n e . Canada, i n 1851, r e g i s t e r e d a c r u d e b i r t h r a t e i n e x c e s s o f 45 b i r t h s p e r 1000 p o p u l a t i o n . As s u c h , C a n a d i a n f e r t i l i t y was h i g h e r t h a n f e r t i l i t y i n w e s t e r n E u r o p e a n s o c i e t i e s a t m i d - c e n t u r y , w h i c h r e g i s t e r e d l e v e l s o f t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e r a n g i n g i n t h e m i d d l e 30s ( M i t c h e l l , 19 7 5 ) . However, a c r u d e b i r t h r a t e h i g h e r t h a n 4 0 was n o t a t y p i c a l o f E u r o p e a n o v e r s e a s p o p u l a t i o n s a t t h e m i d d l e o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h C e n t u r y . I n 1861-65, t h e A u s t r a l i a n c r u d e b i r t h r a t e was 42.4 ( S p e n c e r , 1971:249) and i n 1850, t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was 43.3 (Thompson and W h e l p t o n , 1933:263). T h e s e h i g h e r l e v e l s i n t h e E u r o p e a n o v e r s e a s s o c i e t i e s were t h e r e s u l t o f h i g h e r l e v e l s o f m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and h e i g h t e n e d f e m a l e n u p t i a l i t y . A l s o , t h e age s t r u c t u r e was amenable t o h i g h e r b i r t h r a t e s i n t h e o v e r s e a s p o p u l a t i o n s as t h e a g e - s e l e c t i v i t y i n v o l v e d i n m i g r a t i o n r e s u l t s i n h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s i n t h e c h i l d b e a r i n g 128 ages. Canada witnessed s u b s t a n t i a l e a r l y d e c l i n e s i n f e r t i l i t y ; the b i r t h rate d e c l i n e d approximately 31 percent between 1851 and 1891. The overseas populations of A u s t r a l i a and the United States r e g i s t e r e d comparable 4 d e c l i n e s over t h i s p e r i o d . However, western European 5 s o c i e t i e s d i d not witness reductions of t h i s magnitude. This d i f f e r e n t i a l i n the extent of nineteenth Century f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e can be accounted f o r by the operation of the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e . Whereas the l e v e l of female n u p t i a l i t y remained r e l a t i v e l y constant i n western Europe, the p r o p o r t i o n of married females dropped i n Canada and i n A u s t r a l i a and New Zealand, r e i n f o r c i n g the trend of o v e r a l l d e c l i n e (Jones, 1971:309). The trend of Canadian f e r t i l i t y departed from that i n both western Europe and the other overseas s o c i e t i e s i n i t s unevenness a f t e r d e c l i n e commenced. The p l a t e a u i n f e r t i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the second stage, from 1891 to 1921, was a phenomenon unique to Canadian t r a n s i t i o n . A l l other western populations r e g i s t e r e d d e c l i n e s i n b i r t h rate at t h i s time, w i t h percent reductions t y p i c a l l y i n excess of 7 15 percent, due, i n large p a r t , to decreases i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . Although Canada s i m i l a r l y experienced d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , i t s e f f e c t was counterbalanced by a comparable increase i n female n u p t i a l i t y . I t has been suggested that t h i s increase was not i n t e r n a l l y generated, but r a t h e r r e s u l t e d from the changed c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the immigrants e n t e r i n g Canada during t h i s p e r i o d . P r o v i n c i a l V a r i a t i o n s i n F e r t i l i t y Table XXIV presents crude b i r t h r ates f o r the provinces of Canada f o r the p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , w i t h i n the c o n s t r a i n t s of data a v a i l a b i l i t y . As can be seen at a glance, considerable v a r i a t i o n e x i s t e d among the Canadian provinces i n terms of f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and trend. Quebec stood out as the high f e r t i l i t y province u n t i l the middle of the twentieth Century at which time Newfoundland took over t h a t r o l e . At the other extreme, B r i t i s h Columbia was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the lowest p r o v i n c i a l crude b i r t h r a t e s u n t i l 1971 when Quebec, the previous high b i r t h r a t e province, e x h i b i t e d the lowest r a t e i n Canada. The f a c t t h a t one province can move from the p o s i t i o n of highest rank to the p o s i t i o n of lowest rank i n crude b i r t h rate i s suggestive of d i f f e r e n t i a l trends i n b i r t h rate d e c l i n e . Unfortunately, complete data are not a v a i l a b l e at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l t o allo w f o r a complete a n a l y s i s of d i f f e r e n t i a l trends, mainly due to a lack of e a r l y data f o r the western provinces. Therefore, the i n i t i a l comments are l i m i t e d t o the provinces from Ontario eastward, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland. Focussing f i r s t on the provinces of Ontario and „ Quebec, the two provinces f o r which complete data are Table XXIV P r o v i n c i a l Crude B i r t h Rates. 1851-1971 Year Province 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 Newfoundland - - - - - - 32. 5 34. 1 24. 5 P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d — — 34.0 30.9 27. 0 25. 1 26. 7 22. 7 22. 2 26. 9 27. 1 18. 8 Nova S c o t i a - 39. 1 37. 3 32.6 30.3 29. 5 28. 3 27. 3 24. 1 24. 8 26. 7 26. 3 18. 1 New Brunswick. - - 38. 4 33.9 32.2 30. 9 30. 5 32. 5 28. 1 27. 7 31. 2 27. 7 19. 2 Province of Quebec 1 46.0 40. 6 39. 9 39.0 36.5 36. 9 34. 8 37. 6 30. 9 27. 6 29. 8 26. 1 14. 8 Ontario 47.7 43. 1 39. 3 33.5 28. 8 27. 0 26. 2 27. 8 21. 5 19. 7 25. 0 25. 3 16. 9 Manitoba - - - - - - - 33. 3 21. 8 20. 9 25. 7 25. 3 18. 2 Saskatchewan - - - - - - - 32. 6 24. 6 21. 2 26. 1 25. 9 17. 3 A l b e r t a - - - - - - - 30. 9 25. 1 22. 4 28. 7 29. 2 18. 8 B r i t i s h Columbia - - - - - - - 22. 3 15. 9 19. 0 24. 1 23. 7 16. 0 1921 data on b i r t h s taken from Henripin (1972:372). Sources: Data on b i r t h s were taken from the estimations performed i n Chapter I I and V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1971 ( B i r t h s , t a b l e 5). Data on t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n and females aged 15-49 were taken from the f o l l o w i n g census s t a t i s t i c s . Censuses of Canada: 1851 (v. 1, appendices 5 and 6, t a b l e 4); 1861 (v. 1, General A b s t r a c t of Ages); 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 9), 1971 (cat. 92-715, t a b l e 7). a v a i l a b l e from 1851 onwards, i t can be seen t h a t the o v e r a l l extent of d e c l i n e i n crude b i r t h rate was s u b s t a n t i a l and q u i t e s i m i l a r i n magnitude. As shown i n Table XXIV, the crude b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e d from 46.0 t o 14.8, or 67.8 percent, i n Quebec and from 4 7.7 t o 16.9, or 64.6 percent, i n Ontario. Despite such s i m i l a r i t y i n extent of d e c l i n e , the path of d e c l i n e was markedly d i f f e r e n t i n the two provinces. Ontario, i n i t i a l l y e x p e r i e n c i n g crude b i r t h r a tes higher than Quebec, underwent a more r a p i d i n i t i a l d e c l i n e such t h a t i n 1871 the rates i n the two provinces were approximately equal but by 1891 the Ontario r a t e was n e a r l y 7 p o i n t s lower. In other words, i n the f i r s t p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y , Ontario experienced a greater d e c l i n e than d i d Quebec, 39.6 percent as compared to 2 0.7 percent. In the second p e r i o d , both provinces experienced the p l a t e a u that was c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of Canada as a whole. I t was i n the t h i r d p e r i o d t h a t the two provinces diverged s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n terms of crude b i r t h r a t e trend. During t h i s p e r i o d , the r a t e i n Quebec dropped d r a m a t i c a l l y , over 30 percent from the 19 21 l e v e l , while i n Ontario the d e c l i n e was much s m a l l e r , 9 percent. Much of t h i s d i f f e r e n t i a l can be accounted f o r i n the l a t t e r decades of the p e r i o d . Ontario e x h i b i t e d a much l a r g e r upswing i n crude b i r t h rate between 1941 and 1951, when the rate jumped from 19.7 to 25.0, or n e a r l y 2 7 percent. The analogous increase i n Quebec was 8 percent. A l s o , i n 132 Ontario the upswing continued on u n t i l 19 61 whereas, i n Quebec, a downward trend occurred between 1951 and 1961. As a r e s u l t the crude b i r t h r a t e s i n the two provinces were w i t h i n one p o i n t of one another i n 1961 but, i n Quebec, the 1961 rate was 11.5 po i n t s lower than the 1921 rat e w h i l e , i n Ontario, i t was only 2.5 p o i n t s lower. In the decade 19 61-19 71, both provinces experienced a lar g e d e c l i n e i n crude b i r t h r a t e , although the d e c l i n e was greater i n Quebec. The d i f f e r e n t i a l p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i n the two provinces can be summarized by e s t i m a t i n g the c o n t r i b u t i o n made during each p e r i o d to the t o t a l d e c l i n e experienced. These estimates were constructed by s u b t r a c t i n g the percent r e d u c t i o n o c c u r r i n g up to but not i n c l u d i n g a given p e r i o d from the percent reduction o c c u r r i n g i n tha t p e r i o d and a l l preceding periods and by t r e a t i n g the t o t a l r eduction i n each province as 100 percent. As shown i n Table XXV, Quebec and Ontario e x h i b i t e d very d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s of d e c l i n e . In the case of Ontario, d e c l i n e was concentrated i n the f i r s t and f o u r t h stages of f e r t i l i t y , w i t h the l a r g e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n made during the f i r s t p e r i o d . As such, the p a t t e r n i n Ontario p a r a l l e l e d t h a t of Canada as a whole. On the other hand, i n Quebec, the p a t t e r n was one i n which d e c l i n e was concentrated i n the t h i r d and f o u r t h periods. Although the two provinces shared the feature of a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n made i n the decade of the 60s, the f o u r t h p e r i o d , they diverged i n terms of the 133 Table XXV Percent of T o t a l D e c l i n e i n Crude B i r t h Rate O c c u r r i n g i n S p e c i f i e d P e r i o d s . O n t a r i o , Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick Percent of D e c l i n e O c c u r r i n g i n : Pr o v i n c e 1851-1891 1 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961- 1971 O n t a r i o 61. 3 3.3 8.2 27 .2 Province of Quebec 30.5 + 3.5 36.9 36 .1 Nova S c o t i a 41. 9 14. 3 4.7 39 . 1 New Brunswick 32. 2 +1.4 25.0 44 . 2 i l S G l - l S g i f o r Nova S c o t i a ; 1871-1891 f o r New Brunswick. Source: Table XXIV. t i m i n g of e a r l i e r d e c l i n e s , w i t h Quebec l a g g i n g behind i n t h i s regard. By 1861 and 1871, data are a v a i l a b l e f o r Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick, r e s p e c t i v e l y . I f these two p r o v i n c e s can be taken as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the Maritime p r o v i n c e s , i t i s p o s s i b l e to estimate the Maritime p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e and compare i t wi t h the p a t t e r n s found i n O n t a r i o and Quebec, u s i n g the same e s t i m a t i o n procedure. As i s r e v e a l e d i n Table XXV, the two Maritime p r o v i n c e s e x p e r i e n c e d a p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e i n crude b i r t h r a t e s i m i l a r to t h a t o f the p r o v i n c e of O n t a r i o , w i t h major c o n t r i b u t i o n s made i n the l a t t e r years of the n i n e t e e n t h Century and i n • the decade of the. 19 60s. However, New Brunswick, a p r o v i n c e g e o g r a p h i c a l l y contiguous t o Quebec and wi t h a s i g n i f i c a n t 134 French Canadian p o p u l a t i o n , d i d e x h i b i t a p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e more s i m i l a r to the Quebec p a t t e r n , w i t h a f a i r l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n made during the t h i r d p e r i o d . Looking at the p e r i o d from 19 21 onwards, f o r which complete p r o v i n c i a l data e x i s t w i t h the exception of Newfoundland, r a t h e r large d i f f e r e n t i a l s e x i s t e d , both i n terms of magnitude of crude b i r t h rate and p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e . In terms of magnitude, i n 1921, a 15.3 p o i n t spread e x i s t e d between the Quebec rate of 37.6 and the B r i t i s h Columbia rate of 22.3, a d i f f e r e n c e of 68.6 percent. In 19 71, p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n remained, w i t h n e a r l y 10 p o i n t s , or 65.5 percent, spanning the d i f f e r e n c e between the province e x h i b i t i n g the highest r a t e , Newfoundland, and the province w i t h the lowest, Quebec. However, i f Newfoundland i s excluded, p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n 19 71 was only 29.7 percent. In terms of the p a t t e r n i n g of d e c l i n e , again s i g n i f i c a n t p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s emerged, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the p e r i o d from 1921 to 1961. During that p e r i o d , p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n spanned from a percent decrease, from 1921 l e v e l s , of 30.6 i n Quebec to a percent increase of 6.3 i n B r i t i s h Columbia. On the average, the eastern provinces r e g i s t e r e d greater d e c l i n e s than the western provinces. A r e l a t i o n s h i p emerges between the extent of change i n crude b i r t h r a t e during the p e r i o d 1921-1961 and the l e v e l of crude b i r t h rate i n 19 21. I f the provinces are 135 placed i n rank order i n terms of 19 21 crude b i r t h r a t e , from highest to lowest, t h a t o r d e r i n g p a r a l l e l s , w i t h one minor exception, the ranking of the provinces i n terms of extent of d e c l i n e i n crude b i r t h rate from 1921 to 1961, from greatest d e c l i n e to l e a s t , or i n t h i s case, i n c r e a s e . As shown i n Table XXVI, the higher the crude b i r t h rate i n 1921, the l a r g e r the d e c l i n e from 19 21 to 19 61. I t may be s a i d that t h i s p e r i o d was one of p r o v i n c i a l convergence i n crude b i r t h r a t e . Table XXVI R e l a t i o n s h i p between Value of Crude B i r t h Rate i n 19 21 and Extent of Change between 1921 and 1961. Canadian Provinces Change, 1921 - 1961 Province Crude B i r t h Rate, 19 21 P o i n t Percent Province of Quebec Manitoba Saskatchewan New Brunswick A l b e r t a Ontario Nova S c o t i a P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d B r i t i s h Columbia 37. 6 33.3 32.6 32.5 30. 9 27.8 27.3 26.7 22. 3 -11. 5 -8.0 -6.7 -4.8 -1. 7 -2.5 -1. 0 +0.4 +1.4 -30. 6 -24.0 -20. 5 -14. 8 -5.5 -8.9 -3.7 + 1. 5 + 6.3 Source: Table XXIV. 136 The p e r i o d from 1961 to 1971 was one of major d e c l i n e f o r a l l Canadian provinces. Each province experienced a d e c l i n e i n excess of 28 percent from the 1961 l e v e l and, i n the case of Quebec, the d e c l i n e exceeded 43 percent. As a r e s u l t , by 19 71, p r o v i n c i a l crude b i r t h r ates were w e l l below 20, w i t h the exception of Newfoundland. Components of P r o v i n c i a l F e r t i l i t y As s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , the crude b i r t h r a t e i s a f u n c t i o n of general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , sex r a t i o , and female age composition and the general f e r t i l i t y r ate i s , i n t u r n , a f u n c t i o n of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , non-marital f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y . Appendix B presents data on the observed l e v e l s of these f a c t o r s i n each Canadian province f o r the years t h a t data are a v a i l a b l e . The observed p r o v i n c i a l trends and d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y r ate p a r a l l e l t h a t of the crude b i r t h r a t e . A l l provinces underwent s i g n i f i c a n t d e c l i n e i n l e v e l of general f e r t i l i t y r ate so t h a t by 19 71, the l e v e l was l e s s than 100 i n a l l provinces except Newfoundland, where the l e v e l s l i g h t l y exceeded 10 0. Although the o v e r a l l p a t t e r n was one of d e c l i n e , the path of d e c l i n e was f a r from smooth, wi t h a l l provinces r e g i s t e r i n g an upswing a f t e r 1941 and c e r t a i n p rovinces, i . e . , Quebec, New Brunswick and Ontario, undergoing s l i g h t increases i n the decade 1911-19 21. A l l provinces, w i t h minor exceptions, 137 followed the o v e r a l l trend i n general f e r t i l i t y r a t e t h a t was c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the Canadian average data: d e c l i n e s i n the f i r s t f e r t i l i t y stage, a l e v e l l i n g i n the second p e r i o d , a f l u c t u a t i n g t h i r d p e r i o d and major d e c l i n e s o c c u r r i n g i n the f o u r t h p e r i o d . Despite t h i s o v e r a l l commonality i n p r o v i n c i a l trend of general f e r t i l i t y , two f a c t s are noteworthy. One concerns the net e f f e c t of f e r t i l i t y change i n the t h i r d p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y . The o v e r a l l change i n the general f e r t i l i t y rate i n Canada from 1921 to 1961 was a percent decrease of approximately 12 percent, an average which masks considerable p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n the trend of the general f e r t i l i t y r ate i n t h i s p e r i o d . P r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n ranged from a percent increase of almost 15 percent i n P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d to a percent decrease of n e a r l y 30 percent i n Quebec. Again, as w i t h the crude b i r t h r a t e , t h i s d i f f e r e n t i a l p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e was r e l a t e d to l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y i n 19 21. The four provinces e x p e r i e n c i n g the lowest values of general f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n 1921, i . e . , P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , Nova S c o t i a , Ontario and B r i t i s h Columbia, were the only provinces r e g i s t e r i n g an increase i n general f e r t i l i t y r ate over the t h i r d p e r i o d . S i m i l a r l y , Quebec, wi t h the highest value of the general f e r t i l i t y rate i n 1921 experienced the l a r g e s t degree of d e c l i n e from 1921 to 1961. Therefore, the t h i r d p e r i o d i s perhaps best c h a r a c t e r i z e d as one of f l u c t u a t i o n i n trend 138 but convergence i n p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s of general f e r t i l i t y . Second, i n the f i r s t two stages, p r i o r t o the p r o v i n c i a l convergence of the t h i r d stage, r a t h e r strong p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n general f e r t i l i t y rate e x i s t e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the second stage. In 1891, at the end of the f i r s t stage, there e x i s t e d a 40 p o i n t spread i n l e v e l of general f e r t i l i t y rate among the f i v e provinces f o r which data are a v a i l a b l e . By 1921, t h a t range had expanded to an approximate 6 2 p o i n t s spanning the l e v e l experienced by B r i t i s h Columbia, 92.5, and Quebec, 154.9. I f one r e s t r i c t s the a n a l y s i s to only those f i v e provinces f o r which a v a i l a b l e data e x i s t e d i n 1891, the range i n p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l s of general f e r t i l i t y r ate i s approximately 4 7 p o i n t s . Although such a r e s t r i c t i o n lowers the range of v a r i a b i l i t y experienced, the major p o i n t remains. P r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n was r a t h e r l a r g e and somewhat l a r g e r i n the p e r i o d from 1891 to 19 21 than i n the p e r i o d spanning the l a t t e r years of the nineteenth Century. In c o n t r a s t w i t h p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the range of 40-47 or 40-62, depending upon which provinces are considered, by 1961, the range had narrowed to approximately 30 p o i n t s , w i t h P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d e x p e r i e n c i n g the highest r a t e , 134.6, and B r i t i s h Columbia g the lowest, 104.1. Again, i f only the o r i g i n a l f i v e provinces are considered, the 19 61 range was about 26 p o i n t s , from the P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d high t o the Ontario 139 low of 108.3. This p a t t e r n of convergence remained i n 1971, when the range was again around 30 p o i n t s . The trend of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was one of a more steady d e c l i n e than th a t of the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t the Canadian data i n d i c a t e d a sustained d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y throughout the whole p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , except f o r an increase i n the decade from 1941 t o 1951. A l l provinces experienced t h i s o v e r a l l t r e n d of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , although c e r t a i n p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s e x i s t e d i n terms of l e v e l and p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e . In terms of l e v e l , p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s were q u i t e small i n the f i r s t stage of f e r t i l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the e a r l i e r p a r t . For example, i n 18 71, i n the four provinces f o r which data are a v a i l a b l e , the range i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e was approximately 13 p o i n t s , between Ontario (305.9) and Quebec (318.9). By 1891, the range had widened to approximately 72 p o i n t s , w i t h P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d e x p e r i e n c i n g the highest m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , 29 3.2, and Ontario, the lowest-, 221.1. I f P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d i s excluded, and the comparison i s l i m i t e d to the same four provinces as i n 1871, the gap i n 1891 narrows s l i g h t l y to about 6 2 p o i n t s . The second stage witnessed a c o n t i n u a t i o n of t h i s widening of p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . I f a l l provinces are considered, the range 140 was approximately 146 p o i n t s between Quebec, on the one hand, and B r i t i s h Columbia, on the other. R e s t r i c t i n g the comparison to the f i v e provinces considered i n 1891, the range was about 102 p o i n t s . E i t h e r way, the p o i n t remains that during the second p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y there occurred a widening i n p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . In c o n t r a s t , the t h i r d p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y s i g n a l l e d a trend toward convergence. Excluding Newfoundland, the range of p r o v i n c i a l values was approximately 62 p o i n t s . Considering only the o r i g i n a l f i v e provinces, the range was somewhat, sm a l l e r , about 52 p o i n t s . In the f o u r t h stage of f e r t i l i t y , the t r e n d of convergence continued. As w e l l as p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , there e x i s t e d p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n terms of the p a t t e r n of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y change. I f no such d i f f e r e n t i a l s e x i s t e d , we would expect a l l provinces to e x h i b i t a c o n t i n u a l d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate w i t h the exception of the decade 1941-1951. However, some p r o v i n c i a l d e v i a t i o n from t h i s main Canadian 9 trend d i d occur. The f i r s t d e f i n i t e evidence of d e v i a t i o n occurred i n the decade 1911-19 21, at which time the provinces of Quebec and New Brunswick experienced increases i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . The increase was p a r t i c u l a r l y l a r g e i n the case of Quebec, where the m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e rose 14.2 p o i n t s or 5.3 percent. As a r e s u l t , Quebec was the only province t h a t d i d not undergo an o v e r a l l 141 decrease i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y during the second p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y , 1891-1921. The second instance of p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n the p a t t e r n of f e r t i l i t y change occurred i n the decade 1941-1951 when the Canadian data e x h i b i t e d a c l e a r - c u t trend of increase i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , from a l e v e l of 151.0 i n 1941 to a l e v e l of 160.3 i n 1951, an increase of j u s t over 6 percent. Against t h i s background of general i n c r e a s e , two provinces experienced decreases i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , Quebec and Nova S c o t i a . The decrease was s l i g h t l y l a r g e r i n the province of Quebec, 5.4 percent as compared to a 3.7 percent decrease i n Nova S c o t i a . As a r e s u l t of decrease i n the decade 1941-1951, by 1951 Quebec was no longer the province of highest m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , a p o s i t i o n which she had assumed since around the t u r n of the century. The decade 1951-1961 was a l s o a p e r i o d of p r o v i n c i a l divergence i n trend. In t h i s p e r i o d , the o v e r a l l trend i n Canada was one of s l i g h t d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . The l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e decreased from the 1951 l e v e l of 160.3 to a l e v e l of 154.7 i n 1961, a percent decrease of 3.5. I t w i l l be noted that t h i s decrease d i d not match the increase experienced i n the p r i o r decade, so the Canadian m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n 19 61 continued to be higher than i n 1941. Although the o v e r a l l trend i n 1951-19 61 was one of decrease, the p r o v i n c i a l data i n d i c a t e d both upward and downward movement. In f a c t , only 142 two provinces experienced d e c l i n e s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e , Quebec and New Brunswick. The remaining e i g h t provinces e x h i b i t e d increases i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . Thus, large d e c l i n e s i n two provinces, 13.5 percent i n Quebec and 7.2 percent i n New Brunswick, outweighed smaller increases i n e i g h t provinces and created the o v e r a l l trend of d e c l i n e i n t h i s decade. I f Canada had not contained the provinces of Quebec and New Brunswick, the 1951 and 19 61 m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s would have been 145.9 and 14 8.6, r e s p e c t i v e l y . In other words, Canada would have experienced an approximate 2 percent increase i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e r a t h e r than a percent decrease of 3.5 during the decade 1951-1961. However, i n absolute terms, the l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n 1951 and 1961 would have been lower than the recorded l e v e l s , given the e x c l u s i o n of New Brunswick and Quebec. In other words, i t was two r e l a t i v e l y high f e r t i l i t y provinces t h a t r e g i s t e r e d d e c l i n e s i n the decade 1951-1961. The above f i n d i n g i s suggestive of a p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between d i r e c t i o n of change i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate and l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e . Considering the e n t i r e p e r i o d of 19 41-19 61, there i s evidence of such a r e l a t i o n s h i p . In 1941, the four eastern provinces of P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , Nova S c o t i a , New Brunswick, and Quebec experienced l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y higher than the Canadian average of 151.0. Three 143 of these provinces, Nova S c o t i a , New Brunswick, and Quebec, underwent o v e r a l l d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate from 1941 to 1961 although only Quebec experienced d e c l i n e s i n both i n t e r n a l decades. On the other hand, a l l provinces to the west of Quebec were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by 1941 l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y lower than the Canadian average and a l l experienced a percent increase i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y from 1941-1961, g e n e r a l l y i n excess of 10 percent. In t h i s group of f i v e western provinces, there was no exception to the trend of 20 year increase and a l l f i v e provinces e x h i b i t e d increases i n both i n t e r n a l decades, although the increases were l a r g e r i n the e a r l i e r decade. Thus, there e x i s t e d a r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and p a t t e r n of change i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate throughout the p e r i o d 1941-1961; a r e l a t i o n s h i p which p a r a l l e l s an east-west geographical s p l i t and which helps e x p l a i n the convergence i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate t h a t was experienced i n the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y . The trend of the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e , the p r o p o r t i o n of females aged 15-49 t h a t are married, was g e n e r a l l y upward f o r the whole p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , although the p e r i o d from 1961 to 1971 witnessed some decrease. There e x i s t e d , however, p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n terms of magnitude of l e v e l and extent of change i n female n u p t i a l i t y . In terms of extent of the magnitude of p r o v i n c i a l 144 d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n female n u p t i a l i t y , one f a c t stands out c l e a r l y : an undeviating trend of p r o v i n c i a l convergence i n 12 p r o p o r t i o n married. In 1891, .2 330 p o i n t s spanned the d i f f e r e n c e between the province experiencing the highest p r o p o r t i o n married and the province experiencing the lowest; i n 1921, the d i f f e r e n c e was .1812; i n 1961, the d i f f e r e n c e had narrowed to .1262; and i n 1971, f u r t h e r convergence occurred such t h a t the d i f f e r e n c e was .0726. Against t h i s background of steady and marked convergence i n extent of p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n female n u p t i a l i t y , there e x i s t e d strong p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l and extent of change. In the nineteenth Century, la r g e p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l of female n u p t i a l i t y e x i s t e d . In the western provinces, the propor-t i o n married was w e l l i n excess of .60 whereas i n the eastern provinces, the proportions were g e n e r a l l y around .5 0. The extent of change i n the second and t h i r d stages was r e g i o n a l l y based as w e l l . The western provinces experienced s l i g h t increases i n p r o p o r t i o n married, whereas the eastern provinces witnessed l a r g e gains. For example, i n the p e r i o d from 1921 to 1961, the eastern provinces r e g i s t e r e d increases i n the neighbourhood of 2 0 percent, w i t h the increases i n P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d and Ontario approaching 30 percent. On the other hand, no western province experienced an increase i n excess of 15 percent; Manitoba, w i t h an increase of 12.8 percent, witnessed the 145 l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e . The e x i s t e n c e of p r o v i n c i a l convergence i n magnitude of female n u p t i a l i t y l e v e l i n conjunction w i t h l a r g e d i f f e r e n c e s i n p a t t e r n of change i s suggestive of a r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l and magnitude of change. The provinces experiencing i n i t i a l l y high l e v e l s of p r o p o r t i o n married, i . e . , the provinces west of Ontario, underwent f a i r l y small changes i n n u p t i a l i t y whereas the provinces c h a r a c t e r i z e d by lower l e v e l s of female n u p t i a l i t y i n the e a r l i e r years underwent more s u b s t a n t i a l changes i n t h i s v a r i a b l e . This inverse r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l and extent of change e x p l a i n s the steady and marked trend of p r o v i n c i a l convergence i n the female marriage v a r i a b l e . I t w i l l be noted that the d i r e c t i o n of the r e l a t i o n -ship between l e v e l and extent of change i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i s opposite to that between l e v e l and extent of change i n female n u p t i a l i t y . In terms of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , f o r the p e r i o d from 1921 t o 1961, the provinces experiencing the highest i n i t i a l l e v e l s underwent more s i g n i f i c a n t d e c l i n e s than the provinces e x p e r i e n c i n g low i n i t i a l 13 l e v e l s . In c o n t r a s t , i n terms of female n u p t i a l i t y , the provinces w i t n e s s i n g the highest i n i t i a l l e v e l s underwent smaller changes than d i d the other provinces. This f a c t sheds some l i g h t on the i n t e r n a l workings of the p r e v i o u s l y mentioned p r o v i n c i a l convergence i n general f e r t i l i t y i n the p e r i o d from 19 21 to 19 61. In both 1921 and 1961, east-west d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n general f e r t i l i t y r a te were s l i g h t . The mean general f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n 1921 i n the eastern provinces was 12 6.9 and, i n the western provinces, 128.3. S i m i l a r l y , i n 1961, the d i f f e r e n c e was s m a l l ; 119.8 i n the east and 117.2 i n the west. Underlying t h i s r e g i o n a l s i m i l a r i t y was a d i f f e r e n t i a l combination of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y , i n terms of l e v e l and extent of change. In the eastern provinces, comparatively high l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y combined w i t h low l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y i n both 1921 and 1961. In the west, the reverse was the case. As already mentioned, the absolute l e v e l of each v a r i a b l e was r e l a t e d to extent of change, i n opposite ways. Therefore, i n the eastern provinces, considerably more change occurred i n both v a r i a b l e s between 19 21 and 1961 than i n the west. The eastern provinces underwent a 62.0 p o i n t d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate and a .1278 p o i n t increase i n the p r o p o r t i o n married. In c o n t r a s t , i n the western provinces, m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate d e c l i n e d only 39.6 p o i n t s and female p r o p o r t i o n married increased only .0666 p o i n t s . The m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e d e c l i n e s i n the eastern provinces were l a r g e l y " c a n c e l l e d out" by l a r g e increases i n female n u p t i a l i t y , such t h a t t o t a l d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y r a t e during the p e r i o d was s m a l l , approximately 5 p o i n t s . In the western provinces, on the other hand, m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s d i d not encounter t h i s negating i n f l u e n c e 147 to such a high degree. However, general f e r t i l i t y r ate l e v e l s i n 19 61 d i d not e x h i b i t s i g n i f i c a n t east-west v a r i a t i o n because of the continued higher l e v e l s of female n u p t i a l i t y i n the west, which operated t o negate, i n the absolute sense, the lower m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y of the west. I f the western provinces had experienced the n u p t i a l i t y l e v e l of the east, the general f e r t i l i t y rate there i n 1961 would have been 109.9 r a t h e r than the a c t u a l l e v e l of 117.2. Thus, r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n i n general f e r t i l i t y r a t e would have been greater i f r e g i o n a l s i m i l a r i t y i n female n u p t i a l i t y had e x i s t e d . Regional s i m i l a r i t y i n general f e r t i l i t y rate i n 19 21 was p a r t i a l l y the r e s u l t of an inverse r e l a t i o n s h i p between l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and l e v e l of n u p t i a l i t y . The t h i r d v a r i a b l e operating on the general f e r t i l i t y r ate i s the v a r i a b l e of non-marital f e r t i l i t y . The trend of t h i s v a r i a b l e from 19 21 onwards was upward. As w i t h the v a r i a b l e s discussed p r e v i o u s l y , p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l and t r e n d may be observed. However, no convergence i n non-marital f e r t i l i t y between 1921 and 1961 was experienced. Rather, p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n non-m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y expanded during t h i s time p e r i o d and was followed by a c o n t r a c t i o n i n 19 71. P a r t of the uniqueness i n the p a t t e r n of change i n non-marital f e r t i l i t y was due to one province, Quebec. While a l l other provinces experienced increases of over 150 percent i n the p e r i o d from 1921 to 148 1961, Quebec's ra t e of non-marital f e r t i l i t y i n 1961 was only 19.2 percent higher than the 19 21 r a t e . Again, a r e g i o n a l , i . e . , east-west, phenomenon may be observed i n terms of extent of change, but i t i s unrelated w i t h i n i t i a l (1921) l e v e l s . In 1921, no r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e e x i s t e d i n terms of mean l e v e l of non-marital f e r t i l i t y . In the western provinces, the mean rat e was 6.2 and, i n the eastern provinces, i t was approximately 6 as w e l l , whether Quebec i s in c l u d e d or not. However, by 1961 a strong r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e emerged, w i t h the mean of the western provinces, 28.1, nea r l y 60 percent higher than the mean of the eastern provinces, 17.9. I f Quebec i s excluded, the d i f f e r e n c e remains s u b s t a n t i a l , approximately 45 percent. By 1971, the extent of the r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e had subsided somewhat. The western provinces experienced l e v e l s of non-m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y 45 percent higher than the eastern provinces. Excluding Quebec, the d i f f e r e n c e i s 33 percent. Therefore, the western provinces r e g i s t e r e d much more s u b s t a n t i a l gains i n non-marital f e r t i l i t y than d i d the eastern provinces f o r the t o t a l p e r i o d 1921-1971, a 23 p o i n t or 368 percent increase i n the west compared to a 13.6 p o i n t or 206 percent increase i n the east. Component A n a l y s i s of P r o v i n c i a l F e r t i l i t y Given the f a c t of considerable p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n l e v e l and extent of change of f e r t i l i t y and i t s 149 c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s , a component a n a l y s i s was performed on the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l , a r e p l i c a t i o n of the s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n 14 procedure t h a t was performed on the Canadian data. Again, the aim was t o determine what p a r t of the observed change i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y r e s u l t e d s o l e l y from change i n each component. The standardized, or h y p o t h e t i c a l , rates are presented i n Appendix C and a summary i s provided i n Tables XXVII (a) and (b). Looking f i r s t at the standardized crude b i r t h r a t e s , i t can be seen t h a t , on the general l e v e l , changes i n general f e r t i l i t y rate e x e r c i s e d a greater i n f l u e n c e than change i n the v a r i a b l e s of female age composition and the sex r a t i o . Of these l a t t e r two v a r i a b l e s , female age composition had the greater e f f e c t and i n the two i n t e r n a l stages of f e r t i l i t y , 1891-1921 and 1921-1961, i n most provinces, i t e x e r c i s e d an i n f l u e n c e almost equal to t h a t of general f e r t i l i t y and i n the same d i r e c t i o n , negative or f e r t i l i t y - i n h i b i t i n g . In the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y , the negative i n f l u e n c e of t h i s v a r i a b l e was p a r t i c u l a r l y strong. The e f f e c t was somewhat stronger i n the four western provinces and, given the f a c t t h a t the pure e f f e c t of general f e r t i l i t y was a l i t t l e l a r g e r , i n the negative d i r e c t i o n as w e l l , i n the western provinces, one would expect t h a t o v e r a l l d e c l i n e i n the crude b i r t h r a t e would be l a r g e r i n the western provinces than i n the eastern provinces. However, such was not the case: the change i n 150 Table XXVII (a) Percent Change i n Standardized Crude B i r t h Rates, by F e r t i l i t y P e r iods. Canadian Provinces F e r t i l i t y P e r i o d Percent Change: Allowed t o Vary Only: B/F' F*/F F/T Newfoundland 1961-1971 Pr i n c e Edward I s l a n d 1881-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 1881-1971 -33.42 -06.09 -09.22 +14.66 -34.75 -36.22 +07.01 -03.17 -04.11 -10.92 +05.34 -12.87 +00.85 -00.21 -00.63 -00.84 +01.48 -00.21 Nova S c o t i a 1861-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 1861-1971 New Brunswick 1871-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 1871-1971 Quebec 1851-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 ' 1961-1971 -21.11 -07.39 +02.28 -33.83 -50.28 -16.76 +03.96 -06.98 -35.49 -48.08 -24.06 +02.03 -29.91 -46.75 -01.21 -01.43 -06.24 +02.44 -06.48 +00.41 -03.05 -08.60 +06.65 -05.10 +03.66 +00.83 -00.82 +05.81 -00.83 -00.84 +00.21 +01.05 -00.41 +00.21 +00.42 +00.21 +00.63 +01.48 +01.05 00. 00 00. 00 +00.62 1851-1971 -71.08 +09.68 +01.67 151 Table XXVII (a), Continued F e r t i l i t y P e r i o d Percent Change: Allowed to Vary Only: B/FJ F*/F F/T Ontario 1851-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 1851-1971 "West" 1891-1921 Manitoba 1921-1961 1961-1971 1921-1971 Saskatchewan 1921-1961 1961-1971 1921-1971 A l b e r t a 1921-1961 1961-1971 1921-1971 B r i t i s h Columbia 1921-1961 1961-1971 -47.62 -03.56 +00.82 -36.99 -67.91 -30.91 -18.91 -30.04 -43.27 -15.18 -37.54 -47.02 -05.54 -39.70 -43.00 +12.40 -35.60 +11.23 -00.57 -09.96 +05.11 +04.66 -04.91 -09.59 +01.52 -08.22 -11.52 +04.42 -07.61 -06.86 +04.00 -03.14 -15.48 +03.66 +03.70 +00.21 +00.63 +00.62 +05.22 +13.17 +03.49 +01.68 +05.23 +05.92 +02.15 +08.20 +07.37 +01.93 +09.45 +11.27 +01.05 1921-1971 -27.62 -12.39 +12.44 Source: Appendix C. 152 Table XXVII (b) Percent Change i n Standardized General F e r t i l i t y Rates, by F e r t i l i t y P e r iods. Canadian Provinces F e r t i l i t y P e r i o d Percent Change: Allowed to Vary Only: LB/M* M*/Fi IB/UM* Newfoundland 1961-1971 -33.76 -03.45 -01. 70 Pr i n c e Edward I s l a n d 1881-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 •05. 60 •22.91 •13. 33 •31.46 -00.22 +17.32 + 28'. 14 -06.55 -00.07 +00.20 +02.84 -00.06 1881-1971 Nova S c o t i a -56.78 +40.17 +02.91 1861-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 •22.88 •20. 36 •20. 27 •32.30 +02.81 +14.78 +23.36 -04.95 -00.24 +00.64 +03.76 +00.70 1861-1971 •66.85 +38.37 +04.24 New Brunswick 1871-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 -15.07 -08.59 -22.82 -34.27 -01.51 +13.53 +17.31 -04.97 -00.24 +00.05 +02.45 +00.97 1871-1971 Quebec 1851-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 -60.61 -20.32 +00.07 -40.00 -45.74 +24.66 -04.19 +01.45 +16.80 -02.67 +03.25 -00.52 +00.50 +00.35 +00.27 1851-1971 -74.04 +10.50 +00.60 153 T a b l e X X V I I ( b ) , C o n t i n u e d F e r t i l i t y P e r i o d P e r c e n t C h a n g e : A l l o w e d t o V a r y O n l y : L B / M ^ M * / F ^ I B / U M * O n t a r i o 1851-1891 1891-1921 1921-1961 1961-1971 1851-1971 " W e s t " 1891-1921 M a n i t o b a 1921-1961 1961-1971 1921-1971 S a s k a t c h e w a n 1921-1961 1961-1971 1921-1971 A l b e r t a 1921-1961 1961-1971 1921-1971 B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 1921-1961 1961-1971 -37.22 -17.40 -21.10 -32.04 -72.19 -34.34 -30.06 -28.72 -50.15 -24.96 -33.66 -50.21 -15.16 -36.48 -46.11 •04.79 •32.19 -14.90 +16.74 +25.81 -07.44 +15.69 +07.11 +12.22 -06.59 +04.82 +08.27 -11.38 -04.05 +06.83 -07.75 -01.45 +11.26 -07.75 -01.22 +00.23 +01.86 -00.07 +00.78 -00.78 +03.30 +01.15 +04.48 +05.19 +00.58 +05.80 +04.79 -00.37 +04.41 +05.20 -00.47 1921-1971 -35.44 +02.64 +04.70 S o u r c e : A p p e n d i x C . 154 crude b i r t h rate from 1921 t o 1961 was s l i g h t l y greater i n the eastern provinces. This apparent anomaly can be explained by the d i f f e r e n t i a l operation of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e i n the two regions of Canada. In the eastern provinces, the e f f e c t of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e during t h i s p e r i o d was v i r t u a l l y zero, whereas i n the western provinces, the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e exerted a l a r g e r e f f e c t , i n the p o s i t i v e , or f e r t i l i t y - e n h a n c i n g d i r e c t i o n . In the western provinces during t h i s p e r i o d , the sex r a t i o was becoming more "normal," and the p r o p o r t i o n a l increase i n the female population worked i n the d i r e c t i o n of i n c r e a s i n g the crude b i r t h r a t e . Thus, i n the west, the d e c l i n i n g e f f e c t of general f e r t i l i t y and the female age composition v a r i a b l e were negated, to some degree, by the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e . One province, Quebec, stood out as unique during the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y i n terms of the e f f e c t s of the three f a c t o r s on the crude b i r t h r a t e . The a c t u a l d e c l i n e i n the crude b i r t h r a t e i n Quebec was very l a r g e , more than double the Canadian average. This s u b s t a n t i a l d e c l i n e was almost t o t a l l y the r e s u l t of d e c l i n i n g general f e r t i l i t y , as the e f f e c t of the two "demographic" v a r i a b l e s was v i r t u a l l y zero. I f Quebec had, l i k e her f e l l o w eastern provinces, experienced a more s u b s t a n t i a l negative e f f e c t of female age composition, the a c t u a l change i n crude b i r t h rate would have been even l a r g e r than i t was. In the f o u r t h stage of f e r t i l i t y , from 1961 to 1971, 155 general f e r t i l i t y operated s o l e l y to decrease the crude b i r t h r a t e , as the e f f e c t of the two "demographic" v a r i a b l e s was p o s i t i v e , although s l i g h t . In a l l provinces, both the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e and the female age composition v a r i a b l e worked to i n f l a t e o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y somewhat, although the e f f e c t of the l a t t e r v a r i a b l e was s l i g h t l y greater. Therefore, by the f o u r t h stage, the sex r a t i o i n the western provinces had normalized to such a degree t h a t i t no longer e x e r c i s e d a marked, p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on the crude b i r t h r a t e . In f a c t , by t h i s p e r i o d , much of the east-west d i f f e r e n t i a l i n a l l three f a c t o r s had disappeared. The a c t u a l change i n crude b i r t h rate was a l i t t l e g r e ater i n the eastern provinces, but i f Newfoundland i s excluded, the d i f f e r e n t i a l was very minor. The s l i g h t l y l a r g e r decrease i n crude b i r t h r ate i n the eastern provinces was due to the combined e f f e c t s of a l a r g e r d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y and a l a r g e r negative e f f e c t of the age composition v a r i a b l e . In terms of the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e , i t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y e x e r c i s e d the greatest e f f e c t , but th a t i t s e f f e c t was, i n some p a r t , mediated by the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e . In the f i r s t stage of f e r t i l i t y , when d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and decreasing proportions married operated together to a f f e c t a l a r g e d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y on the n a t i o n a l l e v e l , s i g n i f i c a n t p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s e x i s t e d i n terms of the r e l a t i v e combination 156 of these f a c t o r s . Although a l l provinces experienced d e c l i n e s i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y , i n only one province was there a corresponding, l a r g e d e c l i n e i n proportions married. The s u b s t a n t i a l e f f e c t of d e c l i n i n g p roportions married on the general f e r t i l i t y r ate on the n a t i o n a l l e v e l was due almost e n t i r e l y to the work of the most populous province, Ontario. In Ontario, the e f f e c t of d e c l i n i n g p roportions married was to lower the general f e r t i l i t y r ate approximate-l y 32 p o i n t s . In the other p r o v i n c e s , the pure e f f e c t was smaller and i n Nova S c o t i a , from 1861 t o 1891, the e f f e c t of the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e was p o s i t i v e . Therefore, only i n Ontario d i d d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and s u b s t a n t i a l l y d e c l i n i n g p r o p o r t i o n s married operate j o i n t l y t o a f f e c t a d e c l i n e i n the general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . This f i n d i n g strengthens the argument th a t the nineteenth Century Canadian demographic response to s o c i a l and economic change was t w o - f o l d , as Ontario was the l e a d i n g province i n terms of i n d u s t r i a l development. In the second stage of f e r t i l i t y , observed Canadian general f e r t i l i t y underwent a d e c l i n e , although small i n magnitude compared to the d e c l i n e experienced i n the f i r s t stage. In a l l provinces, except Quebec, m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e d over t h i s p e r i o d . S i m i l a r l y , i n a l l provinces, increases i n proportions married were r e g i s t e r e d . In most prov i n c e s , these two v a r i a b l e s exerted an approximately equal e f f e c t , thus accounting f o r r e l a t i v e constancy i n the 157 observed general f e r t i l i t y r a t e s . Although the combined e f f e c t s were e q u i v a l e n t , the r e l a t i v e change r e g i s t e r e d d i f f e r e d widely by province. For example, i n Ontario, a pure e f f e c t of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y of approximately 17 percent was matched by i n c r e a s i n g p roportions married which exerted a pure e f f e c t of approximately 17 percent as w e l l . On the other hand, i n Quebec, the pure e f f e c t s of p r o p o r t i o n s married and m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y were l e s s than 1.5 percent each. The f a c t t h a t a l l provinces were subject to an i n c r e a s i n g female n u p t i a l i t y e f f e c t may appear, at f i r s t glance, to take away from the argument t h a t the i n c r e a s i n g n u p t i a l i t y of the second stage was due to the i n - m i g r a t i o n of persons, i n t o the western p a r t s of Canada, from areas of Europe t y p i f i e d by high p r o p o r t i o n s married. However, the 15 provinces l e a s t e f f e c t e d by t h i s migration experienced 16 only a 5 percent e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g n u p t i a l i t y from 1891 to 19 21. In comparison, the pure e f f e c t f o r Canada as a whole was 15 percent. Therefore, the argument holds t h a t , i n l a r g e p a r t , the i n c r e a s i n g n u p t i a l i t y of the second stage was a m i g r a t i o n - r e l a t e d phenomenon. The p e r i o d from 1921 to 19 61 was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a continued d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l , although the d e c l i n e was smaller than that r e g i s t e r e d during the second stage of f e r t i l i t y . I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t t h i s p e r i o d experienced a marked r i s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n 158 married which again functioned to negate, i n large degree, the e f f e c t of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . The observed change i n general f e r t i l i t y was greater i n the western provinces than i n the eastern provinces. The d i f f e r e n t i a l i s p a r t i c u l a r l y marked i f Quebec i s excluded, as the observed d e c l i n e i n Quebec was s i g n i f i c a n t l y greater than that experienced by any other province during t h i s p e r i o d . A l s o , the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g non-marital f e r t i l i t y was smaller i n the eastern provinces. The smaller observed d e c l i n e i n general f e r t i l i t y r ate i n the east, t h e r e f o r e , was due to the e f f e c t of the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e . The pure e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g proportions married was much l a r g e r i n the eastern provinces, approximately double t h a t of the western provinces. As was discussed e a r l i e r , the eastern provinces experienced greater changes i n the v a r i a b l e s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y during t h i s p e r i o d than d i d the western provinces and the extent of change was r e l a t e d t o the i n i t i a l (1921) l e v e l s of the v a r i a b l e s . The f o u r t h p e r i o d of f e r t i l i t y witnessed a c o n t i n u a t i o n of an east-west d i f f e r e n t i a l i n extent of a c t u a l change i n general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . However, i n t h i s p e r i o d , the d i f f e r e n t i a l was reversed, w i t h the eastern provinces r e g i s t e r i n g l a r g e r d e c l i n e s than the western provinces. In t h i s p e r i o d , i t was not the operation of the n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e that was c r u c i a l i n determining the east-west d i f f e r e n t i a l . A l l provinces experienced d e c l i n i n g 159 n u p t i a l i t y i n the decade from 1961 to 1971, w i t h a l a r g e r d e c l i n i n g e f f e c t i n the western provinces. Thus, i f n u p t i a l i t y was the important determining f a c t o r , we would expect the western provinces to have been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the l a r g e r d e c l i n e i n observed general f e r t i l i t y r a t e . Such di d not occur because of the d i f f e r e n t i a l e f f e c t of the v a r i a b l e of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y . In the eastern provinces, the e f f e c t of d e c l i n i n g m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was greater than i n the western provinces; the mean pure e f f e c t i n the east was a 37 p o i n t d e c l i n e whereas i n the west the comparable f i g u r e was 29. The e f f e c t of non-marital f e r t i l i t y , which was g e n e r a l l y p o s i t i v e , was extremely small and s l i g h t l y g r e ater i n the eastern provinces. This component a n a l y s i s can shed some l i g h t on the p r e v i o u s l y mentioned p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . F i r s t , the anomalous p o s i t i o n of Quebec can be c l a r i f i e d . The smaller d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y i n Quebec, as compared t o Ontario, i n the f i r s t stage was, i n large p a r t , due to the smaller d e c l i n e r e g i s t e r e d i n female n u p t i a l i t y . Of course, the d e c l i n e i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a te was a l s o smaller i n Quebec than Ontario during t h i s p e r i o d , but the degree of d i f f e r e n t i a l i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y would have been considerably l e s s i f both provinces had experienced s i m i l a r n u p t i a l i t y change. A l s o , the small increase i n f e r t i l i t y e x h i b i t e d by Quebec, and by New Brunswick, i n the second stage of f e r t i l i t y , was almost 160 e n t i r e l y the r e s u l t of i n c r e a s i n g n u p t i a l i t y . Quebec experienced an overwhelming large d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y i n the t h i r d stage of f e r t i l i t y , 1921-1961, the r e s u l t of a favourable combination of f a c t o r s . The e f f e c t of increased n u p t i a l i t y was l e s s i n Quebec, r e l a t i v e to her eastern neighbours; the e f f e c t of decreasing m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was greater; the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g non-marital f e r t i l i t y was very minor. A l l three e f f e c t s combined i n the determination of large d e c l i n e i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y . I t can be s a i d that much of the "uniqueness" i n Quebec's f e r t i l i t y experience, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the f i r s t and t h i r d stages of f e r t i l i t y , was the r e s u l t of the p a r t i c u l a r combination of changes i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y r a t h e r than the extent of change i n e i t h e r v a r i a b l e alone. Nevertheless, Quebec d i d l a g behind the other provinces i n the trend of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . At the beginning of the t h i r d stage, 19 21, the m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate i n Quebec, at 283.7, was 33 percent higher than the Canadian average. The province second to Quebec was New Brunswick, a province a d j o i n i n g Quebec and w i t h a la r g e French Canadian p o p u l a t i o n . This pocket of high m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y i n the c e n t r a l region of Canada, corresponding to a po p u l a t i o n l i n g u i s t i c a l l y and e t h n i c a l l y d i s t i n c t from populations t o the east and to the west, suggests the importance of c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s i n the acceptance of f e r t i l i t y c o n t r o l w i t h i n marriage, as has been found i n 161 western Europe. The importance of c u l t u r e as a determinant of demographic behaviour has been observed i n terms of the female n u p t i a l i t y v a r i a b l e as w e l l . The western p a r t of Canada, w i t h an e t h n i c composition d i s t i n c t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t from t h a t of more eastern p o r t i o n s , d i s p l a y e d high l e v e l s of female n u p t i a l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the second stage, the p e r i o d of western settlement. From these d i f f e r i n g l e v e l s of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and p r o p o r t i o n s married, the Canadian provinces embarked on a path of convergence, beginning i n 1921. Where m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was high, i t d e c l i n e d a l a r g e amount; where m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y was l e s s high, i t d e c l i n e d a l e s s e r degree. Where proportions married was low, i t increased s u b s t a n t i a l l y ; where proportions married was higher, i t increased to a l e s s e r amount. As a r e s u l t , p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y lessened, as w e l l as p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the major components, m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and female n u p t i a l i t y . T r a d i t i o n a l c u l t u r a l f a c t o r s began to lose t h e i r importance, as a Canadian p a t t e r n emerged. The path t h a t each province took i n the achievement of t h i s Canadian p a t t e r n d i f f e r e d depending upon the p a r t i c u l a r mix of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and proportions married t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e d i t p r i o r to the trend toward convergence. I t can be s a i d t h a t i t i s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between 162 m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y and p r o p o r t i o n s married, i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and t r e n d , t h a t l i e s at the h e a r t of Canadian f e r t i l i t y t r a n s i t i o n . The f o l l o w i n g two chapters examine these two v a r i a b l e s i n f u r t h e r d e t a i l . Footnotes 'The pre-1931 constancy i s a forced one; because of l a c k of data p r i o r to 1921, i l l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h s are assumed to comprise 2 percent of t o t a l b i r t h s . > 'The sum of changes i n the c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s does not equal the t o t a l change i n observed s o c i e t a l f e r t i l i t y , due to i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t s . !As data concerning i l l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h s are l a c k i n g f o r the second p e r i o d , the same assumption i s made, i . e . , t h a t i l l e g i t i m a t e b i r t h s comprise 2 percent of t o t a l b i r t h s . Therefore, i t i s not p o s s i b l e to measure the e f f e c t of non-m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y change i n any r e a l way. In A u s t r a l i a , between 1861-65 and 1891-95, the crude b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e d approximately 19 percent (Spencer, 1971:249). In the United S t a t e s , the r e d u c t i o n between 1850 and,1890 was about 28 percent (Coale and Z e l n i k , 1963:21; Thompson and Whelpton, 1933:263). Between 1850 and 1890, the percent reduction i n crude b i r t h r a t e i n s e l e c t e d western European s o c i e t i e s was as f o l l o w s : United Kingdom (England and Wales) 9.6 percent; Germany 4.0 percent; Netherlands 4.9 percent; Sweden 12.2 percent ( M i t c h e l l , 1975:108f). In P o r t u g a l , a s l i g h t increase i n the crude b i r t h rate was r e g i s t e r e d between these years ( L i v i - B a c c i , 1971:21). Data concerning female n u p t i a l i t y i n the United States p r i o r to 1890 do not e x i s t . In t h i s p e r i o d , crude b i r t h r a t e s r e g i s t e r e d the f o l l o w i n g percent reductions: A u s t r a l i a 27.5 percent; United States (whites only) 19.9 percent; United Kingdom (England and Wales) 15.6 percent; Germany 27.4 percent; Netherlands 13.1 percent; Sweden 15.7 percent; I t a l y 15.5 percent (Coale and Z e l n i k , 1963:21; M i t c h e l l , 1975:108f; L i v i -B a c c i , 1977:21; Spencer, 1971:249). Ex c l u d i n g Newfoundland. The data f o r the "West" i n d i c a t e d an increase i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n the decade 1881-1891. However, the data d e f i c i e n c i e s of t h i s area cast doubt upon any i n t e r p r e t a -t i o n that m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y d i d , i n f a c t , r i s e . 164 'Quebec experienced the highest l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y u n t i l 1881, but p r o v i n c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s were small at that time. In 1881 and 1891, P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d e x h i b i t e d a l e v e l of m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y higher than Quebec. I t was only a f t e r the t u r n of the century t h a t Quebec's m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate was c o n s t a n t l y and s u b s t a n t i a l l y the highest i n the n a t i o n . "The one exception i s Pri n c e Edward I s l a n d , an eastern province, which experienced a high m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n 19 41 but which experienced an increase i n m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y during the p e r i o d 1941-1961. I ' B r i t i s h Columbia and Manitoba are inclu d e d . 'This r e l a t i o n s h i p i s most notable f o r the sub-period, 1941-1961. The r a t e s were standardized at the l e v e l s observed f o r Canada i n 1851. The provinces are Pri n c e Edward I s l a n d , Nova S c o t i a , New Brunswick, and Quebec. This i s a weighted mean, c a l c u l a t e d using 1921 p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n f i g u r e s . CHAPTER V MARRIAGE PATTERNS Marriage p l a y s an important r o l e i n the demography of a p o p u l a t i o n . On the one hand, marriage, or n u p t i a l i t y , i s a demographic v a r i a b l e i n i t s own r i g h t , as marriages are " v i t a l " events i n a sense analogous t o b i r t h s and deaths. On the other hand, n u p t i a l i t y can p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of other demographic v a r i a b l e s , n o t a b l y f e r t i l i t y . Thus, the v a r i a b l e of marriage may be viewed from two p e r s p e c t i v e s : i n terms of i t s e f f e c t s and i n terms of i t s determinants. We have al r e a d y looked a t the e f f e c t of marriage p a t t e r n s upon the Canadian f e r t i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e . A r e l a t e d concern i s the marriage p a t t e r n i t s e l f , w i t h the aim of d i s c o v e r i n g the v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e d to n u p t i a l i t y . T h i s concern i s i n no way a t r i v i a l one, i n terms of the a n a l y s i s of f e r t i l i t y , as marriage i s a f a m i l y formation v a r i a b l e , s e t t i n g the stage f o r c h i l d b e a r i n g i n a s o c i e t y t h a t n o r m a t i v e l y views marriage and c h i l d b e a r i n g as i n s e p a r a b l e phenomenon. A necessary f i r s t step i s a more d e t a i l e d examination of the Canadian marriage p a t t e r n over the p e r i o d 165 166 from 1851 t o 1971. So f a r , n u p t i a l i t y has been looked at i n r e l a t i v e l y gross f a s h i o n , i n terms of the p r o p o r t i o n of the female po p u l a t i o n aged 15-49 that i s married. For the purposes of assessing the e f f e c t of n u p t i a l i t y upon o v e r a l l f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and trend, t h a t measure i s adequate. However, i t i s a general measure t h a t does not i l l u m i n a t e v a r y i n g aspects of n u p t i a l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y change. I t ignores the issue of male n u p t i a l i t y a l t o g e t h e r , as i t plays no d i r e c t f e r t i l i t y - d e t e r m i n i n g r o l e . A l s o , i t does not e l u c i d a t e two important aspects of n u p t i a l i t y : i t s t i m i n g and i t s q u a n t i t y . In order t o more f u l l y understand marriage i n Canada, these two aspects must be examined se p a r a t e l y . The timing of marriage r e f e r s to the age at which people marry and i s t y p i c a l l y assessed by measuring the percent of the male and female po p u l a t i o n aged 20-24 and 25-29 that i s s i n g l e ( i . e . , never-married). A l a t e r -marrying population w i l l have a higher percent s i n g l e i n the age groups 20-24 and 25-29 than w i l l an e a r l i e r - m a r r y i n g p o p u l a t i o n . The s t a t i s t i c of the average (mean or median) age at ( f i r s t ) marriage i s a l s o commonly used. >The q u a n t i t y of marriage, the extent to which people marry, i s u s u a l l y measured i n terms of the percent of the male and female pop u l a t i o n at the end of the c h i l d b e a r i n g ages, t y p i c a l l y 45-49, th a t i s s i n g l e . A p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i z e d by what 167 i s c a l l e d " u n i v e r s a l " marriage w i l l t y p i c a l l y have a lower percent s i n g l e i n the age group 45-49, u s u a l l y around 2-3 percent, than a p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i z e d by "non-universal" marriage. Table XXVIII presents data on the percent of the male and female p o p u l a t i o n aged 20-24, 25-29 and 45-49 that i s s i n g l e and the average age at ( f i r s t ) marriage f o r Canada from 1851 to 1971. Focussing on t i m i n g of marriage, s e v e r a l features can be noted. F i r s t , the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 i s always higher f o r males than f o r females, i n d i c a t i n g the commonly observed phenomenon of younger marriage f o r women than f o r men. The s t a t i s t i c s on average age at marriage i n d i c a t e that the age d i f f e r e n c e has approximated 3 years, w i t h a narrowing gap over time such t h a t by 1971 the d i f f e r e n c e was s l i g h t l y over 2 years. A second feature concerns the trend of the timing of marriage. The o v e r a l l trend i n the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 was one of i n c r e a s i n g percentages s i n g l e over the course of the l a t t e r h a l f of the nineteenth Century followed by decreasing percentages s i n g l e throughout the twentieth Century. There do e x i s t a few exceptions to t h i s general trend: a s l i g h t r e v e r s a l of the d e c l i n e i n the twentieth Century occurred i n the depression year of 19 31; the decade 1961-1971 witnessed an increase i n the percent of females s i n g l e i n the age group 20-24. A t h i r d feature concerns the r e l a t i v e importance of decreases i n the percent 168 T a b l e XXVIII P e r c e n t S i n g l e a t Ages 20-24, 25-29, and 45-49 and Average Age a t ( F i r s t ) M a r r i a g e , f o r Males and Females. Canada, 1851-1971 Males Females P e r c e n t S i n g l e A v e r a g e 6 Age a t M a r r i a g e P e r c e n t S i n g l e A v e r a g e 6 Age a t M a r r i a g e 20-24 25-29 45-49 20-24 25-29 45-49 1851 1 66.2 44.8 9.1 26.1 42.1 29.4 8.2 23.0 1861 2 73.9 50.9 10.3 27.1 52.3 37.2 10.0 24.5 1871 3 74.2 53.0 6.7 28.1 51.3 38.3 7.3 25.4 1881 4 78.6 53.5 •9.2 27.9 57.2 38.1 11.3 25.1 1891 4 87.1 50.6 9.7 29.1 66.8 34.7 9.4 26.0 1911 5 82.5 54.3 15.1 29.2 59.6 32.3 12.0 24.9 1921 5 81.7 47.6 14.1 28.0 56.9 28.7 11.1 24.3 1931 5 85.5 52.1 14.0 28.5 63.1 32.4 10.3 25.1 1941 5 83.8 50.7 14.2 26.3 61.0 32.9 11.2 23.0 1951 74.4 35.1 13.1 24.3 48.5 20.7 11.7 22.0 1961 69.5 29.6 10.5 24.0 40.5 15.4 9.5 21.1 1971 67.6 25.6 9.1 23.5 43.5 15.4 7.0 21.3 1 R e f e r s t o Lower Canada and Upper Canada. ^ R e f e r s t o Lower Canada, Upper Canada and Nova S c o t i a . °Refers to O n t a r i o , Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 4Same as 3, w i t h P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , Manitoba and B r i t i s h Columbia. 5 R e f e r s t o p r e s e n t a r e a of Canada, e x c l u d i n g Newfoundland. 6 F o r 1851-1931, the f i g u r e s a r e computed s i n g u l a t e mean ages a t ( f i r s t ) m a r r i a g e , f o r 1941-1971, the f i g u r e s a r e median ages a t ( f i r s t ) m a r r i a g e . F o r t h e p e r i o d from 1851 t o 1891, the d a t a were i n t e r p o l a t e d i n t o 5 y e a r age groups. S o u r c e s : Censuses o f Canada: 1851-52 (v. 1, appendices 5 and 6); 1861 (v. 1, G e n e r a l A b s t r a c t of A g e s ) ; 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 8 ); 1881 (v. 4, t a b l e G); 1891 (v. 4, t a b l e H); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 29); 1931 (v. 3, t a b l e 12); 1941 (v. 3, t a b l e 7); 1951 (v. 2, t a b l e 1 ) ; 1961 ( c a t . 92-552, t a b l e 78); 1971 ( c a t . 92-730, t a b l e 1 ) . V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1971 (v. 2, t a b l e 7 ) . s i n g l e i n the age groups 20-24 and 25-29 to the general p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e i n the twentieth Century. Although decreases were r e g i s t e r e d i n both age groups, l a r g e r reductions occurred at ages 25-29 than ages 20-24 f o r the p e r i o d from 1911 to 1971. Thus, change i n the timing of marriage does not s i g n a l a trend of marrying at very young ages so much as i t i n d i c a t e s a trend of d i s c o n t i n u a t i o n of marrying at r e l a t i v e l y l a t e ages. In other words, the age span during which the m a j o r i t y of persons contracted marriage narrowed during t h i s century. Data presented i n the V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s p u b l i c a t i o n s f o r the years 1921-1971 confirm t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n . The data presented i n Table XXIX i n d i c a t e a trend of convergence i n the age d i s t r i b u t i o n of marriages. Although the percentage of marriages o c c u r r i n g at the teen-age years increased somewhat, approximately 5 percent f o r both males and females, the increase at ages 20-24 was more marked. The trend of concentration of marriage i n the age group of the e a r l y 20s was p a r t i c u l a r l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n the case of men: i n 1921, 30.4 percent of marriages occurred i n the age group 2 0-24, by 1971, the percent was 52.7. The percent of marriages at ages over 25 s t e a d i l y d e c l i n e d from 1921 to 1971 f o r both sexes. There-f o r e , the twentieth Century p a t t e r n of change i n marriage ti m i n g i n v o l v e d two d i s t i n c t aspects: a trend toward marrying at younger ages and a convergence i n the ages at which the m a j o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n married. The trend of 170 Table XXIX Percent of Marriages Occurring at Given Ages, Males and Females, Canada, 1921-1971 Percent of Marriages Occurring at Ages: - 19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35--39 40--44 Males 1921 1 1 . 9 30 . 4 31 . 3 16 . 3 8. .5 4. .5 1931 2 2 .5 35 .4 32 .2 13 .4 6. . 4 3. . 6 1941 2 2 .5 34 . 0 33 . 8 14 . 8 6. .5 3. . 0 1951 3 5 . 2 42 .5 27 .0 10 . 6 5. . 2 2. ,9 1961 6 .8 47 .1 24 .4 9 . 1 4. .2 2. , 2 1971 7 .2 52 .7 21 . 4 6 .4 3. . 3 2. . 3 Females 19 21 1 21 .9 39 . 0 20 . 0 8 . 7 4. , 6 2. ,5 1931 2 23 . 0 43 . 7 18 .5 6 .2 3. , 2 1. ,9 1941 2 19 . 3 42 .9 19 .9 7 .9 3. . 3 1. . 6 1951 3 24 . 8 43 .0 16 . 2 6 . 3 3. . 3 2. , 1 1961 31 . 6 42 .5 11 .4 4 .9 2. .8 1. . 8 1971 27 . 3 48 .4 11 . 3 3 . 9 2. , 2 1. . 7 Excludes Yukon, Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s , Newfoundland and Quebec. 2Excludes Yukon, Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s , and Newfoundland. 3Excludes Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s . Sources: V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s : 1921 (table 26); 1931 (table 55); 1971 (v. 2, t a b l e 10). 171 decreased v a r i a b i l i t y i n age at marriage appears to i n d i c a t e the development of an age at marriage norm th a t d i c t a t e s marriage occur i n the e a r l y 20s, although somewhat l a t e r f o r men than f o r women. A f o u r t h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c embodied i n the data concerning marriage timing i s the s i m i l a r i t y of trend f o r the sexes. Although the magnitude of the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 and of the average age at marriage s t a t i s t i c s d i f f e r s f o r males and females, w i t h the data f o r males i n d i c a t i n g an older marriage age throughout the e n t i r e p e r i o d , the changes over time are r a t h e r s i m i l a r . Both men and women experienced the trend of general increase i n marriage age i n the second h a l f of the nineteenth Century and decrease since the turn of the century. S i m i l a r l y , both sexes experienced decreased v a r i a t i o n i n the range of the ages at marrying. One notable d e v i a t i o n from the s i m i l a r i t y of male and female trends i n marriage timing e x i s t s . In the decade 1961-1971, males continued to e x h i b i t a trend toward younger age at marriage: the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 d e c l i n e d and the median age at marriage decreased from 24.0 years to 2 3.5 years. On the other hand, females e x h i b i t e d some increase i n marriage age during t h i s decade: the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 increased 3 percent, the percent s i n g l e at 25-29 remained constant, and the median age at marriage increased s l i g h t l y , from 21.1 to 21.3 years. A p o s s i b l e explanation f o r the male and female d i s s i m i l a r i t y 172 i n trend i n t h i s decade w i l l be provided s h o r t l y . The major p o i n t here i s that the general p a t t e r n of marriage t i m i n g change was e s s e n t i a l l y the same f o r men and women. The second aspect of n u p t i a l i t y i s t h a t of i t s q u a n t i t y . Data on the extent t o which Canadians have married, as assessed by the percent s i n g l e i n the age group 45-49, are presented i n Table XXVIII. I t can be seen that the data on q u a n t i t y of marriage are somewhat more ambiguous than the data on timing of marriage, although a few general p o i n t s can be made. In terms of the magnitude of the percent s i n g l e , again a sex d i f f e r e n t i a l e x i s t s . J u s t as women have married at younger ages than men, they have tended to marry more than men. The percent s i n g l e f o r women i s always higher f o r males than f o r females, although the d i f f e r e n c e s are s m a l l , i n the range of 2-3 percent f o r the most p a r t . Thus, i t can be s a i d t h a t marriage f o r women i n Canada has been s l i g h t l y more " u n i v e r s a l " than f o r men. Yet, one would h e s i t a t e to c l a s s i f y Canada as a s o c i e t y c h a r a c t e r i z e d by u n i v e r s a l marriage. The percent s i n g l e at ages 45-49 has t y p i c a l l y been c l o s e t o , or i n excess o f , 10 percent f o r men and women. In terms of trend i n marriage q u a n t i t y , no c l e a r c u t trend e x i s t s . The l a t t e r h a l f of the nineteenth Century was marked by f l u c t u a t i o n around r e l a t i v e l y low values of the percent s i n g l e . The p e r i o d around the turn of the century was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a large upswing i n the percent s i n g l e which l a s t e d u n t i l 173 around 1951. The recent decades experienced r a t h e r l a r g e reductions i n the percent s i n g l e . This t r e n d i n marriage q u a n t i t y was e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r f o r both sexes, although women d i d not experience the e a r l y twentieth Century upswing to the same extent t h a t men d i d . The trend of q u a n t i t y of marriage d i d not c l o s e l y p a r a l l e l the trend of the timing of marriage. The trend of i n c r e a s i n g percent s i n g l e i n the age groups 20-24 and 25-29 i n the l a t e 1800s was not accompanied by increases at ages 45-49. The d e c l i n i n g percent s i n g l e at the younger ages i n the twentieth Century was not p a r a l l e l e d by d e c l i n e s i n the o l d e r age group u n t i l a f t e r 1951. Therefore, i t can be s a i d that timing and q u a n t i t y are two d i s t i n c t aspects of n u p t i a l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y change, aspects which do not n e c e s s a r i l y respond i n s i m i l a r ways to changing s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s . In terms of e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y , the t i m i n g aspect of marriage, the age at marriage, plays a more important r o l e than the q u a n t i t y aspect i n p o p u l a t i o n s , l i k e Canada, i n which the m a j o r i t y of persons e v e n t u a l l y marries. However, i n terms of the marriage p a t t e r n i t s e l f , the q u a n t i t y of marriage cannot be ignored. The a n a l y s i s of marriage patterns i n Europe has l e d t o the discovery of a unique h i s t o r i c a l European p a t t e r n . Hajnal (1965) found t h a t the nations of western Europe e x h i b i t e d a marriage pattern, i n t h e i r h i s t o r i c a l past that d i s t i n g u i s h e d i t s e l f i n terms of both t i m i n g and q u a n t i t y . 174 This p a t t e r n , which he termed the "European" p a t t e r n , was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by marriage at r e l a t i v e l y o l d ages and by a s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n never marrying, r e l a t i v e to the predominantly S l a v i c populations of eastern Europe and to non-European s o c i e t i e s . Although i t i s d i f f i c u l t to know i n any p r e c i s e way when the European p a t t e r n o r i g i n a t e d , i t i s b e l i e v e d to have commenced during the 1600s i n the general p o p u l a t i o n and perhaps a l i t t l e e a r l i e r i n upper c l a s s groups. While the beginning i s hard to p i n p o i n t , given i n c r e a s i n g data l i m i t a t i o n s as one moves back i n time, the end i s q u i t e i d e n t i f i a b l e . By the 1940's, the European marriage p a t t e r n was disappearing. At t h i s time, a l l s o c i e t i e s of Europe experienced what has been termed a "marriage boom," w i t h decreases i n the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 r e g i s t e r e d , i n d i c a t i v e of a trend toward younger age at marriage, and w i t h decreases o c c u r r i n g i n the percent s i n g l e at o l d e r ages, i n d i c a t i v e of an increased q u a n t i t y of marriage. A question r e a d i l y comes to mind: was Canada c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a marriage p a t t e r n of the European type, or d i d marriage occur at younger ages and more u n i v e r s a l l y i n Canada than i n the s o c i e t i e s of western Europe? There are reasons to expect e i t h e r p o s s i b i l i t y to be the case. On the one hand, Canada was populated, i n large p a r t , by persons of western European o r i g i n . I f the reasons underlying the European p a t t e r n l i e i n the c u l t u r a l realm, we would expect 175 a transference of the marriage p a t t e r n , r e l a t i v e l y i n t a c t , to Canada. On the other hand, although Canadians share a common c u l t u r a l background w i t h western Europeans, the f a c t of m i g r a t i o n may have operated to a f f e c t marriage i n Canada i n a non-European fashion . For in s t a n c e , given the f a c t t h a t m i g r a t i o n tends to be male-dominated, the balance of the sexes i n Canada would presumably be favourable f o r women i n terms of the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates. Therefore, we would expect a younger age at marriage and a l a r g e r q u a n t i t y of marriage f o r Canadian women than f o r western European women, who have t y p i c a l l y s u f f e r e d from male shortage. A l s o , the experience of immigration i t s e l f could lead to younger marriage as people seek to regain "a fa m i l y . " A l s o , d i f f e r e n c e s i n economic c o n d i t i o n s could have functioned t o a f f e c t a d i f f e r e n t i a l marriage p a t t e r n i n Canada than i n western Europe. The excess of land r e l a t i v e to people i n Canada, as compared w i t h Europe, could have operated to increase the propensity to marry i n Canada by making marriage more f e a s i b l e . On the other hand, i f the more favourable land/people r a t i o i n Canada operated as a f a c t o r r a i s i n g expectations f o r upward m o b i l i t y , then marriage would occur at r e l a t i v e l y o l d ages and l e s s u n i v e r s a l l y given competition w i t h economic goals. Table XXX presents values of the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24, 25-29, and 45-49 f o r males and females i n western Europe, eastern Europe, and Canada at the turn of 176 Table XXX Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24, 25-29, and 45-49, For Males and Females. Western Europe, 1 Eastern Europe 2 and Canada, C i r c a 1900 Females Males Percent S i n g l e Range Percent S i n g l e Range Western Europe 20-24 71. 7 (86-55) 88. 2 (96-81) 25-29 41. 8 (59-26) 52.7 (78-34) 45-49 15.6 (29-10) 12.8 (20-6) Eastern Europe 20-24 22. 2 (28-16) 57.8 (67-50) 25-29 5.6 (9-2) 22.2 (31-18) 45-49 2.2 (4-1) 4.0 (4-1) Canada 3 20-24 66.8 87.1 25-29 34. 7 50. 6 45-49 9.4 9.7 1Unweighted mean of 16 western European populations. 2Unweighted mean of 5 eastern European populations. 31891 f i g u r e s . Sources: Hajnal (1965:102-3); Table XXVIII. 177 the century. As the nations of Europe e x h i b i t e d a c e r t a i n amount of v a r i a t i o n i n percent s i n g l e , the range of values i n eastern and western Europe i s a l s o i n d i c a t e d . The l i n e of demarcation between the "European" p a t t e r n and the "non-European" p a t t e r n can be c l e a r l y drawn. In the European p a t t e r n , marriage occurs at s u b s t a n t i a l l y o l d e r ages. For example, i n the case of women, approximately three-quarters of the age group 20-24 remain s i n g l e i n western Europe as compared wi t h l e s s than one-quarter i n eastern Europe. In the age group 25-29, more than 40 percent are s i n g l e i n the European p a t t e r n as opposed t o l e s s than 6 percent. In the non-European p a t t e r n , nearly a l l women have married by age 25 whereas i n the European case, a large percentage has yet to marry. In the case of men, values of the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 i n both eastern and western Europe are higher than f o r women, but the r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l remains.- In terms of the q u a n t i t y of marriage, i n the European p a t t e r n a s u b s t a n t i a l percent of both males and females remains unmarried by ages 45-49 whereas i n eastern Europe, marriage i s v i r t u a l l y u n i v e r s a l . What p a t t e r n does the Canadian marriage experience most c l o s e l y correspond to? There i s no question but that Canada f i t s i n t o the European "camp" i n terms of both t i m i n g and q u a n t i t y of marriage. For the three age groups, the percent s i n g l e i n 1891 i s s l i g h t l y lower than the mean 178 of the western European c o u n t r i e s , but the values f a l l w e l l w i t h i n the range experienced i n western Europe. The one exception i s the case of women i n the age group 45-49 where the value of the percent s i n g l e f a l l s outside of the range experienced i n the western European c o u n t r i e s . Neverthe-l e s s , the Canadian value w e l l exceeds the range e x h i b i t e d i n e astern Europe. I t w i l l be remembered t h a t Canada experienced increases i n percent s i n g l e during the l a t t e r h a l f of the nineteenth Century, such t h a t the values were s u b s t a n t i a l l y higher i n 1891 than i n 1851. Thus, one could ask whether the Canadian p a t t e r n of marriage at the middle of the nineteenth Century s i m i l a r l y corresponded to the European p a t t e r n . At t h i s p o i n t i n time, the p l a c i n g of Canada i s somewhat more ambiguous. For males and females at ages 25-29 and f o r males at ages 45-49, the values of the percent s i n g l e i n Canada are w i t h i n the European range. However, f o r the age group 20-24, the Canadian values are q u i t e a b i t lower than r e g i s t e r e d i n western Europe. Hajnal (19 65:108) provides us w i t h a " r u l e of thumb" f o r the determination of marriage p a t t e r n . Marriage i s of the European type i f the average age at ( f i r s t ) marriage f o r women i s at l e a s t 23 years of age and i s of the non-European v a r i e t y i f the age i s under 21 years. The f i g u r e f o r Canada i n 1851 i s 2 3 years. Therefore, marriage i n Canada at the middle of the nineteenth Century was of the European v a r i e t y as w e l l . The 179 values of the percent s i n g l e f o r both sexes at ages 25-29 su b s t a n t i a t e t h i s argument. The low l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e d western European s o c i e t i e s help t o e x p l a i n the r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y experienced, through the operation of the Malthusian c o n t r o l mechanism, p r i o r to i n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n and u r b a n i z a t i o n . That mechanism was operative i n Canada as w e l l , although not to the same extent, f u n c t i o n i n g to l i m i t f e r t i l i t y l e v e l . A number of f a c t o r s determined the r e l a t i v e l y low n u p t i a l i t y t h a t acted as a check on f e r t i l i t y p r i o r to modernization. One set of v a r i a b l e s i s t h a t of f a m i l y s t r u c t u r e and the norms concerning fa m i l y . Goode (196 3:22) has pointed out that f a m i l y systems i n the west d i f f e r e d from f a m i l y systems i n the non-west even before i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n gained a f o o t h o l d i n the west. The west d i f f e r e d i n i t s absence of lineage as the b a s i s of k i n s h i p and i n i t s emphasis on the i n d i v i d u a l and i n d i v i d u a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y as superordinate over the group, i . e . , k i n . The greater emphasis upon the i n d i v i d u a l was t r a n s l a t e d i n t o a f a m i l y norm that s t a t e d t h a t a couple, upon marriage, set up an independent household and be p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e i r own needs and the needs of t h e i r c h i l d r e n . Therefore, marriage was postponed, and sometimes f o r f e i t e d a l t o g e t h e r , u n t i l a couple could accumulate the resources necessary f o r f a m i l y and household formation. The f e a s i b i l i t y of e a r l y 180 marriage i s reduced when the requirements of marriage are demanding ( i . e . , independent household) and f a l l on the i n d i v i d u a l couple alone (Dixon, 1971:226). A l s o , the absence of lineage as the b a s i s of k i n s h i p was a f a c t o r determining reduced n u p t i a l i t y as the compulsion to marry i s l e s s strong when the k i n group lacks a vested i n t e r e s t i n i t (Davis, 1955:36; Dixon, 1971:226). Clan pressures to marry and reproduce are l a c k i n g as are the r e l i g i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s i n the form of ancestor worship. Although the unmarried s t a t e was never considered to be an i d e a l f o r the general p o p u l a t i o n , i t was somewhat more acceptable i n the west than i n other places where i t c o n s t i t u t e d a d e n i a l of lineage o b l i g a t i o n s . The stem f a m i l y t r a d i t i o n , w i t h i t s system of non-p a r t i b l e i n h e r i t a n c e , was another f a c t o r determining the European marriage p a t t e r n . This custom of n o n - d i v i s i o n of land over generations operated to reduce n u p t i a l i t y by making marriage more d i f f i c u l t f o r n o n - i n h e r i t i n g c h i l d r e n . I t p o s s i b l y functioned i n the same fashion f o r i n h e r i t i n g sons i f they were forced to postpone marriage u n t i l the death or retirement of t h e i r f a t h e r s . Any s u b s t a n t i a l r eduction i n m o r t a l i t y , i . e . , increase i n l i f e expectancy, would lengthen the w a i t i n g p e r i o d f o r i n h e r i t o r s . Evidence of the n o n - p a r t i b i l i t y of land and i t s subsequent e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g age at marriage and c e l i b a c y has been documented i n various p a r t s of p r e - i n d u s t r i a l Europe such as I r e l a n d 181 (Kennedy, 1973:151-2), Netherlands (Petersen, 1960:342), Norway (Drake, 1972:190), and P o r t u g a l ( L i v i - B a c c i , 1971:55), and i n the western p a r t s of eastern Europe ( S k l a r , 1974:236). Another f a c t o r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the development of the European marriage p a t t e r n i s the do c t r i n e s and p r a c t i c e s of the C h r i s t i a n r e l i g i o n . C h r i s t i a n i t y , i n both i t s P r o t e s t a n t and Roman C a t h o l i c forms, a f f e c t e d reduced n u p t i a l i t y through i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h f a m i l y s t r u c t u r e and f a m i l y - r e l a t e d norms. P r o t e s t a n t i s m i s i n t i m a t e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the development of the value of i n d i v i d u a l -ism and i t s extension to the conjugal u n i t as superordinate over the extended k i n group. S i m i l a r l y , Roman C a t h o l i c i s m promotes the subordination of the wider k i n group i n a number of ways. I t holds t h a t choice of spouse i s the domain of the marrying persons themselves; i t competes wi t h f a m i l y members as a b e n e f i c i a r y of e s t a t e s ; i t , at l e a s t i m p l i c i t l y , accepts non-marriage i n the l a i t y through i t s i d e a l i z a t i o n of c e l i b a c y f o r church personnel; and i t , as an organized body, f o s t e r s a l l e g i a n c e to i t s e l f as a source of a u t h o r i t y . Support f o r the argument th a t P r o t e s t a n t i s m and Roman C a t h o l i c i s m , although employing d i f f e r e n t i a l means, a f f e c t the same end, t h a t of the de-emphasis of the a u t h o r i t y of the extended k i n u n i t which, i n tu r n , i m p l i e s reduced n u p t i a l i t y , can be found i n the research of S k l a r (1974) . Therefore, the operation of a set of i n t e r r e l a t e d 182 f a c t o r s appears to account f o r the existence of the European marriage p a t t e r n . The de-emphasis on the extended k i n group, a by-product of the C h r i s t i a n form of r e l i g i o n and of the western system of reckoning descent, i s t r a n s l a t e d i n t o a set of norms t h a t makes marriage more d i f f i c u l t and non-marriage more acceptable i n the west than elsewhere. Applying t h i s framework to the Canadian case, Canada's n u p t i a l i t y experience, as one g e n e r a l l y conforming to the European p a t t e r n , can be e l u c i d a t e d . Canada was populated predominantly by persons of western European o r i g i n who would be expected to b r i n g w i t h them t h e i r values, norms, and p r a c t i c e s concerning fa m i l y o r g a n i z a t i o n . The pre-eminence o f , t r a d i t i o n even over p o l i c y can be seen i n the case of New France. France attempted to augment the s i z e of the colony i n the face of low l e v e l s of i n - m i g r a t i o n by o f f i c i a l l y encouraging and i n s t i t u t i n g means favouring e a r l y and u n i v e r s a l marriage. However, i t has been estimated that the mean age at ( f i r s t ) marriage i n the e a r l y years of the eighteenth Century was approximately 2 3 f o r women and 27 f o r men, f i g u r e s t y p i c a l of the European marriage p a t t e r n (Henripin, 1957:12). The existence of the European marriage p a t t e r n i n Canada must be viewed i n the l i g h t of the European-t r a n s f e r r e d system of f a m i l y o r g a n i z a t i o n . I t goes without . saying that Canadians were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the absence of 183 l i n e a g e , as were t h e i r European forebearers. S i m i l a r l y , i t seems l i k e l y t h a t the value of i n d i v i d u a l i s m and i n d i v i d u a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y e x i s t e d w i t h i n the Canadian m i l i e u and perhaps even i n stronger form i f migration i s s e l e c t i v e of that c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . The norm of independent household at marriage seems l i k e l y given these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and the added one that some p o r t i o n of the po p u l a t i o n , those immigrating as s i n g l e a d u l t s , would have no a l t e r n a t i v e but to be re s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e i r own fami l y upon marriage. I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t the western European stem fami l y form and the system of n o n - p a r t i b l e i n h e r i t a n c e of land may be viewed as determinants of postponed marriage and high rates of permanent c e l i b a c y . Unfortunately, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to obta i n information about these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r Canada. The only c l e a r c u t evidence t h a t e x i s t s concerns the province of Quebec. In tha t province, the stem f a m i l y system was oper a t i v e . One son, not n e c e s s a r i l y the e l d e s t , would i n h e r i t the fa m i l y farm i n t a c t . His s i b l i n g s would leave the farm i n search of economic and marriage o p p o r t u n i t i e s (Gerin, 19 64:35; Miner, 19 39:79-8 0). Miner found no d i f f e r e n t i a l i n mean age at marriage, approximately 26 years, between i n h e r i t i n g and n o n - i n h e r i t i n g sons. For the n o n - i n h e r i t o r s , the r e l a t i v e l y l a t e age at marriage can be a t t r i b u t e d to the economic d i f f i c u l t i e s encountered i n accumulating the resources necessary f o r marriage, although the f a m i l y d i d provide some a i d . For the i n h e r i t i n g son, 184 marriage occurred l a t e , even i n the face of a more secure economic s i t u a t i o n , while he waited u n t i l the death or retirement of h i s f a t h e r and u n t i l the ma j o r i t y of h i s s i b l i n g s l e f t the p a t e r n a l farm. Thus f a r , marriage has been discussed i n terms of f a c t o r s r e l a t e d w i t h the f e a s i b i l i t y and the d e s i r a b i l i t y of marriage. A f a c t o r not to be discounted i s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates (Dixon, 1971). Other things being equal, the l e v e l of n u p t i a l i t y of a given sex w i l l be reduced i f there do not e x i s t s u f f i c i e n t numbers of the opposite sex of marriageable age. Factors operating to a f f e c t a d i s t o r t e d sex r a t i o are war and high rates of out or i n - m i g r a t i o n . War and out-m i g r a t i o n , due to the sex s e l e c t i v i t y of these occurrences, have the e f f e c t of lowering the number of e l i g i b l e males t o e l i g i b l e females. Thus, Europe, which has been a f f e c t e d by war and which experienced emigration i n the past, was, u n t i l r e c e n t l y , t y p i c a l l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a woman surplus or, conversely, a male shortage at the marriageable ages. On the other hand, high r a t e s of i n - m i g r a t i o n have the opposite e f f e c t ; woman shortage at the marriageable ages. In e i t h e r s i t u a t i o n of sex r a t i o d i s t o r t i o n , one sex b e n e f i t s at the expense of the other i n terms of the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates. In the woman surplus case, we would expect higher l e v e l s of male n u p t i a l i t y and lower l e v e l s of female n u p t i a l i t y , as the s i t u a t i o n i s a favourable one f o r males and an unfavourable one f o r females. In the case of a woman 185 shortage, we would expect the opposite to be the case. Given the p o t e n t i a l importance of the v a r i a b l e of the balance of the sexes, t h i s v a r i a b l e i s examined w i t h i n the Canadian context. F i r s t , l e t us look at the extent of sex r a t i o d i s t o r t i o n i n Canada f o r the p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . Table XXXI presents the number of males per 100 females f o r two age c a t e g o r i e s : males aged 22%-27% to females aged 20-24 and males aged 20-49 to females aged 17%-47%. The f i r s t measure r e f l e c t s the extent of sex imbalance at the c h i e f marrying ages; the second the extent over the t o t a l age span at which the m a j o r i t y of people marry. The r a t i o i s not c a l c u l a t e d f o r the exact same ages; r a t h e r , the age groups are 2% years o l d e r f o r males, r e f l e c t i n g the male/female age d i f f e r e n t i a l i n marrying age. Thus, these measures r e f l e c t the number of males r e l a t i v e to the number of females they are most l i k e l y to marry. The data f o r the two age groups r e v e a l the same general p a t t e r n . In the nineteenth Century, the sex r a t i o s were w e l l below u n i t y , i n d i c a t i n g a woman surplus and, t h e r e f o r e , a s i t u a t i o n unfavourable to the marriage chances of women. At f i r s t glance, t h i s might seem to be an unexpected occurrence, given that Canada has been populated by immigrants and tha t immigration tends to be s e l e c t i v e of males. However, i t w i l l be remembered t h a t the p e r i o d from 18 61 to 19 01 was one of negative net migration i n Canada. The s e x - s e l e c t i v i t y of migration would imply a greater 186 Table XXXI Sex R a t i o s , Canada, 1851-•1971 Number of Males per 100 Females Males 17%-4 7%/Females 20-49 Males 22%-27%/Females 20-24 1851 1 96.6 93.1 1861 2 93.9 92.8 1871 3 89.5 85.5 1881 4 81. 4 86.5 1891 4 95. 2 91.4 1911 5 116.5 118. 7 1921 5 103. 8 97.0 1931 5 .. 104.1 97.7 1941 5 99.6 97.8 1951 97.4 98.9 1961 98.1 100. 7 1971 96.7 91.9 d e f e r s to Upper Canada and Lower Canada. 2 R e f e r s to Upper Canada, Lower Canada, and Nova S c o t i a . 3 R e f e r s to Ontario, Quebec, Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick. 4Same as 3, w i t h P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , Manitoba, and B r i t i s h Columbia. 5Excludes Newfoundland. Sources: Censuses of Canada: 1851-52 (v. 1, appendices 5 and 6); 1861 (v. 1, General A b s t r a c t of Ages), 1871 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1881 (v. 2, t a b l e 7); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 9); 1971 (cat. 92-715, t a b l e 7). 187 movement o f men o u t o f t h e c o u n t r y t h a n women, r e s u l t i n g i n an u n f a v o u r a b l e b a l a n c e o f t h e s e x e s , f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f women. As a r e s u l t o f t h e l a r g e - s c a l e i m m i g r a t i o n a c c o m p a n y i n g w e s t e r n e x p a n s i o n a f t e r t h e t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y , t h e s e x r a t i o was r e v e r s e d , w i t h a s u r p l u s o f men r e l a t i v e t o women. A l a r g e d i s t o r t i o n o c c u r r e d o n l y i n 1911, a t i m e o f peak i m m i g r a t i o n . A f t e r t h a t , t h e r a t i o r e m a i n e d q u i t e c l o s e t o u n i t y u n t i l 1971. I n 1971, t h e s e x r a t i o d r o p p e d r a t h e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e y o u n g e r age g r o u p . T h i s phenomenon r e f l e c t s n o t so much t h e e f f e c t o f m i g r a t i o n as t h e e f f e c t o f p r i o r d e m o g r a p h i c b e h a v i o u r . Women aged 20-24 i n 1971 were b o r n a t t h e h e i g h t o f t h e "baby boom" whereas men aged 22%-27% were b o r n e a r l i e r , some o f them i n t h e low f e r t i l i t y y e a r s o f t h e mid 40s. T h e r e f o r e , t h e g r o u p o f women aged 20-24 i s l a r g e r e l a t i v e t o t h e g r o u p o f men 2 2%.-27% b e c a u s e o f t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l s i z e o f the b i r t h c o h o r t s . I f m a r r y i n g age l a c k e d a s e x d i f f e r e n t i a l , i . e . , i f men and women m a r r i e d a t t h e same a v e r a g e age, t h i s phenomenon w o u l d n o t o c c u r . F o r example, t h e r a t i o o f m a l e s 2 0-24 t o f e m a l e s o f t h e e x a c t same age g r o u p i n 1971 i s v e r y c l o s e t o u n i t y , 99.4, as o p p o s e d t o t h e s e x r a t i o o f 91.9 as p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e XXXI. I t i s p o s s i b l e t o a s s e s s t h e e f f e c t o f s e x r a t i o change on t h e t i m i n g o f m a r r i a g e , as me a s u r e d by t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e a t ages 2 0-24.''" By m u l t i p l y i n g t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e i n a s t a n d a r d y e a r by t h e r a t i o o f t h e s e x r a t i o i n t h e 188 standard year ( i n t h i s case, 1851) to the sex r a t i o observed i n a given year, one obtains an expected percent s i n g l e , i . e . , the percent s i n g l e t h a t would occur i f only the e f f e c t of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e was o p e r a t i v e . For example, f o r females i n 1861 the observed percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 was 52.3; the expected percent s i n g l e i s 42.2 (42.0 times 93.1/92.8). The a c t u a l change over the decade 1851-1861 was a 10.3 percent increase i n percent s i n g l e ; the expected change, on the b a s i s of sex r a t i o change alone, i s .2 percent. The d i f f e r e n c e between the a c t u a l change and the expected change can be i n t e r p r e t e d as the amount of change i n percent s i n g l e due to f a c t o r s other than the sex r a t i o . I t can be seen i n Table XXXII that f o r most years, f o r both.sexes, the e f f e c t of changes i n the sex r a t i o on the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l , and, as would be expected, i n opposite d i r e c t i o n f o r the sexes. The major departures, i n terms of magnitude of e f f e c t , occur i n 1911, 1921, and 1971. In 1911, l a r g e - s c a l e immigration of males produced a sex r a t i o h i g h l y favourable f o r women i n terms of marriage, and the r e d u c t i o n i n the percent of females s i n g l e i n the age group 20-24 r e f l e c t s t h a t f a c t . Looking at the case of males at t h i s time, a very i n t e r e s t -i n g phenomenon can be observed. The expected change i n percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 from 1891 to 1911 i s a 19.4 percent increase i n percent s i n g l e , given a change i n sex 189 Table XXXII A c t u a l and Expected Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24 Males and Females. Canada, 1851-1971 A c t u a l Expected A c t u a l -Males A c t u a l Expected Change Change Expected 1851 66. . 16 66. .16 - -1861 73, . 85 65. .93 + 7. 69 23 +7. .92 1871 74. .19 60. . 72 + . 34 -5. 21 +5. . 55 1881 78. . 61 61. . 44 + 4 .42 + . 72 + 3. .70 1891 87. .12 64. .96 + 8 .51 + 3. 52 + 4. . 99 1911 72. . 14 84. . 34 • -4 .98 +19. 38 -24. . 36 1921 81. . 72 68. .91 - . 42 -15. 43 + 15. . 01 1931 85. .53 69. . 38 + 3 . 81 + . 47 + 3. . 34 1941 83. . 73 69. . 48 -1 .80 + . 10 -1. . 70 1951 74. .44 70. . 27 -9 .29 + . 79 -10. .08 1961 69. .49 71. .52 -4 .95 +1 .25 -6. . 20 1971 67. .63 65. . 32 -1 . 86 -6 . 20 + 4. . 34 Females 1851 42. . 03 42. .03 -1861 52. .32 42. . 17 + 10 . 29 + .14 +10. .15 1871 51. .31 45. . 80 -1 . 01 + 3 . 63 -4. .64 1881 57. , 21 45. . 26 +5 .90 - .54 + 6. .44 1891 66. , 75 42. .81 +9 .54 -2 .45 + 11. ,99 1911 59. . 39 32. ,97 -7 . 36 -9 .84 +2. , 48 1921 56. .92 40. , 35 -2 .47 + 7 . 38 -9. , 85 1931 63. , 15 40. , 08 +6 .23 - . 27 + 6. ,50 1941 60. , 95 40. ,02 -2 . 20 - . 06 -2. , 14 1951 48. .52 39. ,57 -12 .43 - . 45 -11. .98 1961 40. ,47 38. ,88 -8 . 05 - . 69 -7. , 36 1971 43. 50 42. ,57 + 3 . 03 + 3 . 69 • -. 66 Sources: Tables XXVIII and XXXI. 190 r a t i o h i g h l y unfavourable to the marriage chances of men. However, the a c t u a l or observed change was a 5 percent decrease i n the percent s i n g l e . Factors other than the sex r a t i o exerted a counterbalancing e f f e c t l a r g e r than t h a t of the sex r a t i o , a f f e c t i n g a decrease where an increase would be expected given the change i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates. One can only speculate as to what these f a c t o r s might be. One v a r i a b l e t h a t comes to mind i s e t h n i c i t y . I t w i l l be remembered that as a r e s u l t of L a u r i e r ' s immigration p o l i c y , Canadian immigration i n the years f o l l o w i n g the turn of the century was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a s i g n i f i c a n t movement i n t o Canada of people from eastern Europe, an area t y p i c a l l y e x h i b i t i n g a non-European marriage p a t t e r n . In terms of Canada, two p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t . One, the male eastern European immigrants i n Canada were already married, given the e a r l y age at marriage i n eastern Europe, but t h e i r wives d i d not accompany them to Canada. These men would be c l a s s i f i e d as married i n the Canadian census. Two, the male eastern European immigrants were s i n g l e upon a r r i v a l i n Canada, but married soon, drawing from women i n Canada or from women i n t h e i r home c o u n t r i e s . I t seems l i k e l y t h a t both occurred and wit h the same e f f e c t , t h a t of d e f l a t i n g the percent s i n g l e f o r males i n the age group 20-24. Whether the e t h n i c v a r i a b l e i s the c r u c i a l one i s somewhat open t o quest i o n , given lack of data: what i s not open to question i s t h a t something other than a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates 191 was a f f e c t i n g the timing of marriage f o r males i n 1911. A l s o , i n 1921, the expected e f f e c t of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e i s q u i t e l a r g e , given a r e t u r n to "normalcy" i n the balance of the sexes. The change between 1911 and 1921 i n the sex r a t i o was one favourable t o women and unfavourable to men. Thus, we would expect to observe an increase i n the percent s i n g l e f o r men and a decrease f o r women. However, the a c t u a l change over the decade was q u i t e s m a l l , and i n the unexpected d i r e c t i o n f o r men. Therefore, again, change i n the sex balance v a r i a b l e was not an important determinant of the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24. In 1971, as a r e s u l t of the combined e f f e c t s of the "baby boom" and the sex d i f f e r e n c e s i n marrying age, the r a t i o of males 22%-27% t o females 20-24 f e l l w e l l below u n i t y , an occurrence conducive to the marrying chances of men. The a c t u a l change i n the percent s i n g l e i n the decade 1961-1971 was i n the expected d i r e c t i o n f o r both sexes; males experienced a decrease i n percent s i n g l e whereas females experienced an increase. However, the r e l a t i v e importance of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e d i f f e r e d f o r the sexes. For women, the bulk of the increase i n percent s i n g l e between 1961 and 1971 can be accounted f o r by the change i n the sex balance. For men, though, the a c t u a l decrease was qu i t e a b i t smaller than expected on the b a s i s of the sex r a t i o change alone. Two conclusions can be drawn. One, the e f f e c t of 192 sex r a t i o change on changes i n the percent s i n g l e i n the age group 20-24 was somewhat greater f o r women than f o r men. In both 1921 and 19 71, the observed change i n the percent s i n g l e can be l a r g e l y accounted f o r by change i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y of men. On the other hand, f o r men, changes i n the percent s i n g l e were g e n e r a l l y i n s e n s i t i v e to changes i n sex balance. Two, f o r the e n t i r e p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , the e f f e c t of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e was minor. This can be seen i n a general way by the f a c t t h a t changes i n the observed percent s i n g l e tended to be i n the same d i r e c t i o n f o r both males and females. Concomitant change i n the percent s i n g l e f o r males and females i s not t o be expected i f a v a r i a b l e that exerts opposing forces on males and females i s an important f a c t o r . A l s o , the greatest decade change i n the percent s i n g l e occurred i n 1941-1951, w i t h a 12 percent decrease f o r women and a 9 percent f o r men. Yet, the change i n the sex r a t i o r e g i s t e r e d between 1941 and 1951 was extremely s m a l l . This observation strengthens the argument t h a t the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates has not played a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n the determination of marriage patterns i n Canada, at l e a s t i n terms of the timing aspect of n u p t i a l i t y . The above comments apply to marriage at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l . However, s p e c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s due the case of the western provinces at the time of major western expansion. Due to the l a r g e - s c a l e movement of males i n t o 193 t h a t area, the sex r a t i o became p a r t i c u l a r l y d i s t o r t e d . Table XXXIII i n d i c a t e s the magnitude of the sex imbalance i n the c h i e f marrying ages i n the west r e l a t i v e t o the whole of Canada i n the years 1881, 1891, and 1911. I t can be seen t h a t the western p r o v i n c e s were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a l a r g e preponderance of males r e l a t i v e to females i n the c h i e f marrying ages. We would, t h e r e f o r e , expect t h a t the western p r o v i n c e s would e x h i b i t a h i g h e r p e r c e n t s i n g l e f o r males a t ages 2 0-24 and a lower percent s i n g l e f o r females than the Canadian average, other t h i n g s b e i ng equal. In the case of women, t h i s e x p e c t a t i o n proves t o be c o r r e c t . However, i n the case of men, the values o f the pe r c e n t s i n g l e i n the western p r o v i n c e s were approximately the same as those experi e n c e d i n Canada as a whole and, thus, do not r e f l e c t the unfavourable marriage o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n c u r r e d by men as a r e s u l t o f sex imbalance. Even though the pe r c e n t of s i n g l e women a t ages 20-24 i n the western p r o v i n c e s i s i n the expected d i r e c t i o n , i . e . , lower than the Canadian average, a c l o s e r look at the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the magnitude of the sex r a t i o and the l e v e l of the percent s i n g l e w i t h i n the western p r o v i n c e s r e v e a l s a c e r t a i n degree of ambiguity. For i n s t a n c e , i n both B r i t i s h Columbia and Manitoba, the pe r c e n t s i n g l e i n c r e a s e d over the p e r i o d from 1881 t o 1911, but the sex r a t i o became p r o g r e s s i v e l y more f a v o u r a b l e f o r the marriage 194 Table XXXIII Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24 f o r Males and Females and Sex Ra t i o s . Canada and Western Provinces, 1881, 1891, 1911 Sex Ratio Percent S i n g l e Number of Males Aged 22%--27% per 100 Males Females Females Aged 20-24 Canada 1881 78.6 57.2 86.5 1891 87.1 66.8 91.4 1911 82.1 59. 4 118. 7 Manitoba 1881 71.4 14.0 16 4. 0 1891 89. 8 51. 7 137. 8 1911 85.9 52.2 133.2 Saskatchewan 1911 86. 3 39. 3 197.9 A l b e r t a 1911 84.0 43.9 206. 4 B r i t i s h Columbia 1881 58.7 32.1 15 8. 4 1891 87. 5 43.3 230.0 1911 83. 6 47.7 251.9 Sources: Censuses of Canada: 1881 (v. 2, t a b l e 7; v. 4, t a b l e G); 1891. (v. 4, t a b l e H); 1921 (v. 2, t a b l e 9; v. 2, t a b l e 29). 195 chances of women i n B r i t i s h Columbia and l e s s favourable i n Manitoba. A l s o , i n the year 1911, the sex r a t i o i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y as one moves westward. The p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n percent s i n g l e d i d not r e v e a l a corresponding p a t t e r n . In th a t year, the lowest value of the percent s i n g l e was experienced i n the province of Saskatchewan, despite the f a c t t h a t i t s sex r a t i o was l e s s favourable to women than that of e i t h e r A l b e r t a or B r i t i s h Columbia. Therefore, even i n the case of women, the determining e f f e c t of the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e on the tim i n g of marriage i s not c l e a r c u t . A second demographic i n f l u e n c e must be considered i n i t s e f f e c t on n u p t i a l i t y . Again, the issue i s m i g r a t i o n , but i n terms of i t s e f f e c t on the percent s i n g l e independent of the sex r a t i o f a c t o r . Hajnal (1953) has pointed out tha t a given value of the percent s i n g l e not only r e f l e c t s marriage behaviour, but i s a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by migration and m o r t a l i t y e f f e c t s . To the extent that the migration and m o r t a l i t y experiences of the s i n g l e and ever-married populations d i f f e r , the value of the percent s i n g l e i s a f f e c t e d . T y p i c a l l y , the s i n g l e p o p ulation experiences a higher l e v e l of m o r t a l i t y than the ever-married p o p u l a t i o n ; to the degree that t h i s phenomenon occurs, observed values of the percent s i n g l e are d e f l a t e d . Generally, m o r t a l i t y e f f e c t s are q u i t e s m a l l , however. On the other hand, migration e f f e c t s can be q u i t e s u b s t a n t i a l . Not only i s migrat i o n s e x - s e l e c t i v e , i t a l s o tends t o be m a r i t a l s t a t u s -196 s e l e c t i v e , w i t h s i n g l e p e r s o n s m o r e l i k e l y t o m i g r a t e t h a n e v e r - m a r r i e d p e r s o n s . T o t h e e x t e n t t h a t m a r i t a l s t a t u s -s e l e c t i v i t y i s o p e r a t i v e , v a l u e s o f t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e a r e i n f l a t e d i n a r e a s o f p o s i t i v e n e t m i g r a t i o n a n d d e f l a t e d i n a r e a s o f n e g a t i v e n e t m i g r a t i o n . I t w i l l b e r e m e m b e r e d t h a t C a n a d a , d u r i n g t h e l a t t e r h a l f o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h C e n t u r y , e x p e r i e n c e d n e g a t i v e n e t m i g r a t i o n . G i v e n t h e m a r i t a l s t a t u s - s e l e c t i v i t y o f m i g r a t i o n , t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s o f t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e w e r e l o w e r t h a n t h e y w o u l d b e i n t h e a b s e n c e o f t h i s m i g r a t i o n e f f e c t . A s d a t a o n m i g r a t i o n b y m a r i t a l s t a t u s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e , i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o a s s e s s t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h i s e f f e c t . I t c a n b e s t a t e d , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e v a l u e s o f t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e w o u l d l i k e l y h a v e b e e n s o m e w h a t l a r g e r h a d n e g a t i v e n e t m i g r a t i o n n o t o c c u r r e d . T h e r e f o r e , n i n e t e e n t h C e n t u r y C a n a d i a n n u p t i a l i t y w o u l d h a v e e v e n m o r e c l o s e l y a p p r o x i m a t e d t h e E u r o p e a n p a t t e r n , i n t h e a b s e n c e o f t h e o p e r a t i o n o f a v a r i a b l e w h o s e e f f e c t i s t o r e d u c e o b s e r v e d l e v e l s o f t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e . I n a s i m i l a r v e i n , C a n a d a a s a w h o l e w a s c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y p o s i t i v e n e t m i g r a t i o n i n t h e t w e n t i e t h C e n t u r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y l a r g e i n t h e y e a r s i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g t h e t u r n o f t h e C e n t u r y t o t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e d e p r e s s i o n . T h e v a l u e s o f t h e p e r c e n t s i n g l e , a s s h o w n i n T a b l e X X V I I I w e r e g e n e r a l l y h i g h a t t h i s t i m e , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r m e n . T o s o m e e x t e n t , t h e s e h i g h l e v e l s c a n b e a c c o u n t e d 197 f o r by the i n f l a t i o n a r y e f f e c t s of m a r i t a l s t a t u s -s e l e c t i v i t y i n mig r a t i o n . One might wonder why the values of the percent s i n g l e f o r women at t h i s time do not e x h i b i t the high l e v e l s one would expect as a r e s u l t of the migration e f f e c t . For example, i n 1911 and 1921, the values at ages 25-29 were qu i t e a b i t lower than experienced during the p e r i o d 1861-1891 and the values at ages 20-24 were not p a r t i c u l a r l y high. The h i n t of a p o s s i b l e explanation i s provided i n data presented i n the 19 41 Census s p e c i a l report on fa m i l y s i z e (Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1945:23). The percent of women ever-married at ages 45-54 i n 1941, the m a j o r i t y of whom married f o r the f i r s t time around 1911-1921, i s cr o s s -tabulated by place of b i r t h . The d i f f e r e n t i a l i s r a t h e r l a r g e , w i t h 8 7 percent of Canadian-born women ever-married (or 13 percent remaining s i n g l e ) and 9 8 percent of European-born ( n o n - B r i t i s h ) women ever-married (or 2 percent remaining s i n g l e ) . The greater propensity of European-born women t o marry suggests e i t h e r that m i g r a t i n g women were married, a r e v e r s a l of the usual p a t t e r n , or t h a t they married soon a f t e r a r r i v a l i n Canada, perhaps migr a t i n g f o r the express purpose of marrying European foreign-born men i n Canada. The low values of the percent s i n g l e f o r females i n the western provinces, as discussed p r e v i o u s l y , can be viewed i n t h i s l i g h t . An area e x p e r i e n c i n g extremely high 19 8 l e v e l s of i n - m i g r a t i o n , an i n f l a t i o n a r y e f f e c t on values of the percent s i n g l e i s expected, and can be observed f o r men i n Table XXXIII. Yet, f o r women, the l e v e l s of the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 were low. To some extent, these low l e v e l s can be accounted f o r by the sex r a t i o f a c t o r , as discussed. However, the d i f f e r e n t i a l marriage propensity of Canadian-born and European-born women l i k e l y operated as w e l l to a f f e c t the lower l e v e l s of female n u p t i a l i t y i n the west, given that European-born women s e t t l e d predominantly i n the west. The a n a l y s i s of the marriage p a t t e r n i n Canada i s complicated by the e f f e c t of m i g r a t i o n , both i n terms of sex r a t i o d i s t o r t i o n as a f a c t o r determining mate a v a i l a b i l i t y and i n terms of the m a r i t a l s t a t u s - s e l e c t i v i t y i n f l u e n c e . I t has been seen t h a t the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e d i d not play a major determining r o l e , at l e a s t i n terms of the timing aspect of n u p t i a l i t y . The e f f e c t of m a r i t a l status s e l e c t i v i t y i s somewhat more d i f f i c u l t to assess. However, looked at i n very general terms, i t s i m i l a r l y appears to have played a r e l a t i v e l y minor p a r t i n the determination of the Canadian n u p t i a l i t y p a t t e r n . For example, values of the percent s i n g l e over the p e r i o d 1891-1921 r e g i s t e r e d decreases at ages 20-24 and 25-29 f o r both men and women. I f the m a r i t a l s t a t u s - s e l e c t i v i t y v a r i a b l e was an important one, increases would be expected, given the high r a t e s of in - m i g r a t i o n i n the e a r l y years of the twentieth Century. 199 S i m i l a r l y , the decade of l a r g e s t decreases i n percent s i n g l e , 1941-1951, was not accompanied by negative net migration i n Canada. I t can be concluded t h a t the trend of Canadian n u p t i a l i t y would not have been s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t i f Canada had been a c l o s e d p o p u l a t i o n . In the l i g h t of t h i s c o n c l u s i o n , marriage i n Canada must be examined w i t h i n the context of s o c i a l , c u l t u r a l , and economic f a c t o r s . We have seen t h a t , i n general, the l e v e l s and trend of n u p t i a l i t y i n Canada correspond to t h a t of western Europe. The p e r i o d p r i o r to 19 41 was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the European p a t t e r n of high average age at ( f i r s t ) marriage and r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l s of permanent c e l i b a c y . P o s s i b l e reasons f o r t h i s p a t t e r n have been discussed w i t h i n a framework foc u s s i n g on the f e a s i b i l i t y and d e s i r a b i l i t y of marriage as mediated by the s t r u c t u r e of western f a m i l y o r g a n i z a t i o n and i t s a s s o c i a t e d norms. The p e r i o d a f t e r 19 41 was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a "marriage boom" as was the case i n other western populations. In some p a r t , t h i s boom was p r e c i p i t a t e d by World War I I , i . e . , the "making up" of post-poned marriages, and appears p a r t i c u l a r l y l a r g e when compared to the reduced l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y t h a t r e s u l t e d from the economic depression i n the immediately preceding p e r i o d . Yet, the boom continued f o r a longer time p e r i o d than the postponement e f f e c t of World War I I could p o s s i b l y account f o r . For men, average age at ( f i r s t ) marriage 200 r e g i s t e r e d d e c l i n e s f o r the e n t i r e p e r i o d from 1941 t o 1971. For women, some r e v e r s a l o f the tr e n d o f continuous d e c l i n e o c c u r r e d i n the decade 1961-1971, which can be accounted f o r by the phenomenon termed the "marriage squeeze." The "marriage squeeze," a commonly observed occurrence w i t h i n western p o p u l a t i o n s at t h i s time, r e s u l t e d from the combined e f f e c t s of the "baby boom" and d i f f e r e n t i a l ages at marriage f o r men and women, produci n g a s i t u a t i o n i n which a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e cohort o f women e x i s t s w i t h i n a marriage market t h a t c o n s i s t s o f a s m a l l e r cohort o f men. A t t e n t i o n may be d i r e c t e d t o a somewhat d i f f e r e n t i s s u e than the l e v e l and t r e n d of n u p t i a l i t y : d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n marriage w i t h i n Canada. These i s s u e s are not u n r e l a t e d as an examination of marriage d i f f e r e n t i a l s can a i d i n the understanding of the changes i n n u p t i a l i t y t h a t have occu r r e d over time. One source of i n f o r m a t i o n i s the s p e c i a l study o f fa m i l y s i z e t h at was performed i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the 19 41 Census. In t h a t study, c e r t a i n data were p u b l i s h e d concerning female age a t marriage. The data are r a t h e r l i m i t e d , however: they d e a l o n l y w i t h women aged 45-5 4 i n 1941 who are c u r r e n t l y ( i . e . , i n 1941) married and l i v i n g w i t h t h e i r husbands i n f a m i l i e s i n which there i s a t l e a s t one wage-earner, t y p i c a l l y the husband. The data are prese n t e d i n terms o f the perc e n t of these women who married f o r the f i r s t time before the age of 25, c r o s s - c l a s s i f i e d by 201 a number of census-selected c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Therefore, the data r e f e r t o d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n age at f i r s t marriage f o r women who d i d marry and were married at the ages 45-54. The information cannot be thought of as r e l a t i n g to non-marriage, as never-married women are not i n c l u d e d , or as r e l a t i n g to age at f i r s t marriage f o r a l l women who d i d marry. The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c r o s s - c l a s s i f i e d w i t h percent marrying f o r the f i r s t time under 25 years of age are e t h n i c i t y ( categorized as French, B r i t i s h , or Other), place of residence ( r u r a l or urban), years of sch o o l i n g ( l e s s than 8 years or more than 13 y e a r s ) , and earnings of fami l y head (l e s s than $950 or more than $2950). The data are presented i n Table XXXIV. I t can be seen that young age at marriage (high percentages marrying under age 25) i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e t h n i c i t y other than B r i t i s h or French, low l e v e l of edu c a t i o n a l attainment, and low l e v e l of earnings of fa m i l y head. Conversely, o l d e r age a t marriage i s as s o c i a t e d w i t h B r i t i s h e t h n i c i t y , high e d u c a t i o n a l attainment l e v e l , and high income l e v e l . The place of residence v a r i a b l e appears 2 to e x e r t no important e f f e c t on age at marriage. I t appears t h a t l e v e l of ed u c a t i o n a l attainment exerts the strongest i n f l u e n c e on age at marriage at t h i s time. Both the highest and the lowest values of the percent marrying under age 25 occur w i t h i n t h i s category: the magnitude of the d i f f e r e n t i a l i s 16.4 percent, i . e . , 70 percent of women w i t h l e s s than 8 years of sch o o l i n g married 202 Table XXXIV Percent of Married Women aged 45-54 Marrying f o r the F i r s t Time under 25 Years, by E t h n i c i t y , E d ucational Attainment, Earnings of Head, and Place of Residence. Canada, 19 41 Percent Marrying Under Age 25 Ethn i c Group French 6 2.8 B r i t i s h 57.9 Other 65.0 Educational Attainment 0-8 years 70.0 13+ years 53.6 Earnings of Head -$950 65.7 +$2950 57.3 Place of Residence Rural 6 2.5 Urban 61.2 Source: Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s (1946:30). at ages under 25, whereas, 16.4 percent l e s s , or 5 3.6 percent of women w i t h more than 13 years of sch o o l i n g married under age 25. I t i s probable that the e f f e c t of increased education on age at marriage i s two-fold. One, woman who are attending school postpone marrying u n t i l t h e i r education i s completed. Two, education i t s e l f can operate 203 to transform a t t i t u d e s and values i n such a way t h a t marriage becomes only one of s e v e r a l options. The p r o v i s i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s to marriage can decrease the d e s i r a b i l i t y of marriage and r a i s e marriage age by making marriage l e s s an economic n e c e s s i t y and l e s s an unquestioned goal. The v a r i a b l e of earnings of fa m i l y head s i m i l a r l y e x e r t s an i n f l u e n c e on age at marriage, although somewhat smaller than the v a r i a b l e of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment, w i t h low earnings a s s o c i a t e d w i t h younger age at marriage. A l s o , the e t h n i c v a r i a b l e i s important, w i t h a 7.1 percent d i f f e r e n t i a l between the B r i t i s h , d i s p l a y i n g the lowest percent marrying under age 25, and the Other category, which c o n s i s t s of n o n - B r i t i s h and non-French e t h n i c groups i n Canada which are, i n the main, of European o r i g i n . This d i f f e r e n t i a l i s not unexpected given the previous d i s c u s s i o n of marriage patterns i n Europe. I t seems l i k e l y t h a t the above three v a r i a b l e s -e t h n i c i t y , e d u c a t i o n a l attainment, and earnings of fa m i l y head - are r e l a t e d one w i t h the other. T y p i c a l l y , the B r i t i s h - o r i g i n group i n Canada has been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by higher l e v e l s of edu c a t i o n a l attainment and higher income l e v e l s than the groups of c o n t i n e n t a l European o r i g i n . Because of the p o s s i b l e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s among the v a r i a b l e s , i t i s necessary t o examine these data i n the l i g h t of the three v a r i a b l e s a c t i n g together. The c r o s s -t a b u l a t i o n s are presented i n Table XXXV. The o v e r r i d i n g 204 Table XXXV Percent of Married Women aged 45-54 Marrying f o r the F i r s t Time under 25 Years, C r o s s - C l a s s i f i e d by Edu c a t i o n a l Attainment, E t h n i c i t y , and Earnings of Head. Canada, 1941 Percent Marrying Under Age 25 Educational Attainment 0-8 13+ Di f f e r e n c e T o t a l 70. 0 53. 6 16. 4 B r i t i s h 65.9 50.6 15.3 Other 72.9 56.5 16.4 -$950 72.7 58.2 14.5 +$2950 65.5 48. 2 17. 3 B r i t i s h , -$950 67.5 58.5 9.0 B r i t i s h , +$2950 65.0 44.0 21. 0 Other, -$950 75.5 56.5 19. 0 Other, +$2950 66.5 53.5 13. 0 E t h n i c i t y Other B r i t i s h D i f f e r e n c e T o t a l 65.0 57.9 7.1 -$950 67.5 62.3 5.2 +$2950 60.3 54.2 •6.1 0-8 72.9 65.9 7.0 13+ 56.5 50.6 5.9 $950, 0-8 75.5 67.5 8.0 $950, 13+ 56.5 58.5 2.0 $2950, 0-8 66.5 65. 0 1.5 $2950, 13+ 53.5 44.0 9.5 Table XXXV, Continued 205 Earnings -$950 +$2950 Dif f e r e n c e T o t a l 65.7 57. 3 8.4 0-8 72.7 65.5 7.2 13+ 58.2 48.2 10.0 Other 67.5 60. 3 7.2 B r i t i s h 62.3 54.2 8.1 0-8, Other 75.5 66.5 9.0 0-8, B r i t i s h 67.5 65.0 2.5 +13, Other 56.5 53.5 3.0 +13, B r i t i s h 58.5 44. 0 14. 5 Source: Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s (1946:30). importance of the edu c a t i o n a l attainment v a r i a b l e i s c l e a r . Strong d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n marrying age e x i s t i n terms of l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment f o r a l l v a r i a b l e s , considered se p a r a t e l y or j o i n t l y . However, d i f f e r e n t i a l s e x i s t w i t h i n each category of l e v e l of sch o o l i n g a l s o . For example, a d i f f e r e n t i a l of 12.5 percent can be found between B r i t i s h women w i t h earnings of fami l y head i n excess of $2950 and Other women wit h earnings of fami l y head lower than $950, even though both groups of women e x h i b i t e d the same l e v e l of schoo l i n g . Such a d i f f e r e n t i a l suggests t h a t the v a r i a b l e s of e t h n i c i t y and earnings of f a m i l y head are e x e r t i n g a force independent of the edu c a t i o n a l attainment v a r i a b l e . I n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t s can be seen i n the cro s s -206 t a b u l a t i o n s of e t h n i c o r i g i n w i t h other v a r i a b l e s . The d i f f e r e n t i a l between the e t h n i c groups of B r i t i s h and Other, h o l d i n g e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l constant at 13 years and over and earnings of fa m i l y head constant at l e s s than $950, i s i n an unexpected d i r e c t i o n . The Other group d i s p l a y s a somewhat l a t e r marrying age than the B r i t i s h group. This can be accounted f o r by the strong e f f e c t that education plays f o r Other women. The percent marrying under age 25 f o r women of Other e t h n i c i t y i s markedly reduced as l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment increases. S i m i l a r l y , the et h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l i n marrying age more or l e s s disappears f o r women c h a r a c t e r i z e d by high earnings of fami l y head and low l e v e l s of schooling. The lack of a d i f f e r e n t i a l can be accounted f o r by the high percentage marrying under age 25 d i s p l a y e d by t h i s group of B r i t i s h women, which again appears to be an e f f e c t of the education v a r i a b l e . D i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n the B r i t i s h group and w i t h i n the Other group are l a r g e r than the d i f f e r e n c e s between the two groups. For both groups, the d i f f e r e n c e between women w i t h l e s s than 8 years of schooli n g and earnings of fa m i l y head l e s s than $950 and women w i t h more than 13 years of school-i n g and earnings of fami l y head i n excess of $2950 i s l a r g e , more than 20 percent. Thus, the e f f e c t s of income and education, together, are greater than the e f f e c t of e t h n i c i t y . The e f f e c t of the earning v a r i a b l e i s intermediate 207 between the e f f e c t of the education v a r i a b l e and the e f f e c t of the e t h n i c i t y v a r i a b l e , i n terms of magnitude. Here, a l s o , the d i f f e r e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l l y disappears i n two comparisons: f o r B r i t i s h women wit h l e s s than 8 years of education and f o r Other women wit h more than 13 years of schooling. In both cases, i t i s the education v a r i a b l e that accounts f o r the lack of a d i f f e r e n t i a l . Thus, these data suggest t h a t three v a r i a b l e s operate together i n determining age at marriage. The most important v a r i a b l e i s e d u c a t i o n a l attainment. Of somewhat l e s s e r importance are the v a r i a b l e s of e t h n i c background and earnings of fa m i l y head. D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the l a t t e r two v a r i a b l e s can and do disappear, which g e n e r a l l y can be accounted f o r by the a c t i o n of the education v a r i a b l e . Yet, many remain strong, i l l u s t r a t i n g the importance of e t h n i c i t y and earnings as explanatory v a r i a b l e s . R e l a t i n g these f i n d i n g s t o the data concerning the trend of n u p t i a l i t y i n Canada, i t can be suggested t h a t the de c l i n e s t h a t occurred i n the e a r l y decades of the twentieth Century i n the percent of women s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 and the average age at marriage f o r women can, i n some p a r t , be a t t r i b u t e d to the a d d i t i o n i n t o Canada at t h i s time of women e x h i b i t i n g a complex of f a c t o r s r e l a t e d to young age at marriage. The p e r i o d of western expansion was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by an i n f l u x of population from eastern and southern Europe. These data suggest t h a t , at l e a s t i n the 208 case of women, the marriage p a t t e r n of t h a t p a r t of Europe was t r a n s f e r r e d to Canada. These women emigrated from p a r t s of Europe i n which the p o p u l a t i o n was not w e l l educated and one suspects t h a t the emigrants were c h a r a c t e r i z e d by p a r t i c u l a r l y low l e v e l s o f e d u c a t i o n a l attainment. L a s t l y , the h i s t o r i c a l r o l e t h a t immigrants have p l a y e d i n the Canadian economy i s t h a t of f i l l i n g low paying jobs t h a t "Canadians don't want." Th e r e f o r e , Canada at t h i s time was augmented by a p o p u l a t i o n t h a t was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by Other e t h n i c o r i g i n s , low l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment and low ear n i n g s , the three f a c t o r s t h a t operated together t o determine young age a t marriage. The a d d i t i o n of t h i s sub-p o p u l a t i o n served t o a f f e c t a younger age a t marriage f o r the whole Canadian female p o p u l a t i o n . A second source of i n f o r m a t i o n concerning marriage d i f f e r e n t i a l s i s the r e g u l a r censuses from 1931 to 1971 which c r o s s - t a b u l a t e d age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s by two other v a r i a b l e s , p l a c e o f residen c e ( r u r a l and urban) and e t h n i c o r i g i n . These data, which i n d i c a t e the t i m i n g and q u a n t i t y of marriage f o r both women and men, are pres e n t e d i n Tables XXXVI and XXXVII. F o c u s s i n g f i r s t on the r u r a l / u r b a n d i f f e r e n t i a l s , i t can be seen t h a t the d i r e c t i o n o f the d i f f e r e n t i a l d i f f e r s f o r males and females. In the case of men, the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by o l d e r age a t marriage and hig h e r l e v e l s of permanent c e l i b a c y than the urban 209 Table XXXVI Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24, 25-29 and 45-49 f o r Males and Females. Rural and Urban Areas. 1 Canada 1931-1971 Percent S i n g l e Males Females  20-24 25-29 45-49 20-24 25-29 45-49 1931 Rural 87.1 55.3 17.1 55.8 23.8 7.1 Urban 83.9 49.4 11.5 68.2 37.7 12.4 1941 Rural 85.8 52.9 17.0 53.5 24.6 7.1 Urban 81.9 47.2 12.0 65.7 38.0 13.8 1951 Rural 79.4 40.8 16.2 40.3 13.9 6.9 Urban 71.3 32.0 11.3 52.2 23.7 14.0 1961 Rural 74.9 35.5 13.8 34.7 11.4 5.7 Urban 67.2 27.5 9.0 42.3 16.8 10.8 1971 Rural 70.9 26.5 12.2 37.0 10.0 4.3 Urban 66.8 25.4 8.2 44.9 16.7 7.7 •••Definition of urban i s i n c o n s i s t e n t over censuses. Sources: Censuses of Canada: 1931 (v. 3, t a b l e 13), 1941 (v. 3, t a b l e 7); 1951 (v. 2, t a b l e 1); 1961 (cat. 92-552, t a b l e 78); 1971 (cat. 92-730, t a b l e 1). 210 p o p u l a t i o n . On the other hand, i n the case of women, the urban population i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by o l d e r marrying age and higher l e v e l s of non-marriage at o l d e r ages than the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n . To some extent, t h i s phenomenon i s the r e s u l t of i n t e r n a l m igration which tends to be female s e l e c t i v e . Thus, lower n u p t i a l i t y of the female urban population i s the r e s u l t of the f a c t that a v a i l a b i l i t y of mates i s ' unfavour-able f o r t h e i r marriage prospects. S i m i l a r l y , r u r a l men are a f f e c t e d by the out-migration of women as they face a woman shortage. However important the sex r a t i o v a r i a b l e may be i n determining r u r a l / u r b a n d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n marriage p a t t e r n at any given time, i t appears not to be an important v a r i a b l e i n terms of the trend of n u p t i a l i t y . In terms of age at marriage, the decade experiencing the greatest amount of change was 1941-1951. In both the r u r a l and urban po p u l a t i o n s , the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and 25-29 r e g i s t e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t d e c l i n e s . However, the sex r a t i o d i d not change appreciably. Rural males faced i n 1951 a sex 3 r a t i o as unfavourable to marriage prospects as i n 1941, yet the percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 decreased 6.4 percent and at ages 25-29, the decrease was 12.1 percent. For urban 4 females, the sex r a t i o was s l i g h t l y more unfavourable i n 1951, probably due to higher l e v e l s of migration a f t e r the war i n the face of i n c r e a s i n g job o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r women i n the a f f l u e n t post-war p e r i o d . Despite t h i s , the decrease i n 211 the decade 19 41 to 19 51 i n the percent single at ages 2 0-24 and 25-29 was 13.5 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively. The rural/urban d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n age at marriage and permanent celibacy continued to e x i s t over the entire period from 1931 to 1971. For every decade, r u r a l males exhibited lower levels, of n u p t i a l i t y than urban males; s i m i l a r l y , i n every decade, urban females registered lower leve l s of n u p t i a l i t y than r u r a l females. However, the extent of the d i f f e r e n t i a l d i f f e r e d for men and women, with women displaying a larger rural/urban d i f f e r e n t i a l than men. The extent of change in the percent single was simil a r i n the ru r a l and urban populations. Both sectors responded equally to the s o c i a l and economic factors conducive to e a r l i e r marriage and reduced permanent celibacy. As a re s u l t , the extent of the rural/urban d i f f e r e n t i a l i n percent single at each age group for both sexes was approximately the same i n 19 71 as i t was i n 19 31. However, rural/urban v a r i a t i o n i n the trend of decrease in the percent single for women aged 2 0-24 and 25-29 e x i s t s . In the decade 1941-1951, r u r a l women experienced larger reductions i n percent single than did urban women. For ru r a l women, the percent reductions were 24.7 and 43.5 for ages 20-24 and 25-29, respectively; for urban women, the decreases were 2 0.5 and 37.6 percent. This d i f f e r e n t i a l reduction i s important i n i t s relationship with the f e r t i l i t y increase experienced between 1941 and 1951. 212 I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate f o r r u r a l women increased markedly over t h i s decade while the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate f o r urban women d i d not. In p a r t , t h i s d i f f e r e n t i a l i n the trend of t o t a l f e r t i l i t y can be a t t r i b u t e d to d i f f e r e n t i a l marriage, as opposed t o f e r t i l i t y , behaviour. In more general terms, i t can be s a i d t h a t r u r a l / urban d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n female n u p t i a l i t y operated to a f f e c t rural/urban d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y . The younger age at marriage f o r r u r a l women served t o increase t h e i r f e r t i l i t y , as measured c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l l y , by a f f e c t i n g younger ages at c h i l d b e a r i n g . Data concerning e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n age at marrage and permanent c e l i b a c y are presented i n Table XXXVII f o r the years t h a t data are a v a i l a b l e . The data r e f e r t o four broad e t h n i c groups: the B r i t i s h groups; the French; western European groups, i n c l u d i n g the Scandina-vi a n s ; eastern European groups, which in c l u d e I t a l i a n s . A s ians, p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y a small group i n Canada, are excluded from the a n a l y s i s because of severe sex r a t i o d i s t o r t i o n , due i n some pa r t t o Canadian immigration laws, which p a r t i c u l a r l y a f f e c t s the n u p t i a l i t y of a group whose out-marriage p o s s i b i l i t i e s have been g r e a t l y l i m i t e d . Focussing f i r s t on the extent of e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s , two f a c t s become apparent. One, as was the case w i t h the rural/urban d i f f e r e n c e s , the magnitude of the 213 Table XXXVII Percent S i n g l e at Ages 20-24, 25-29 and 45-49 f o r Males and Females by Ethnic Groups. Canada 1931-1961 Percent S i n g l e Males Females  20-24 25-34 45-54 1 20-24 25-34 45-54 1 1931 B r i t i s h 85.4 42. 2 14. 3 65. 3 27. 3 11. 6 French 86.1 38. 7 10. 6 66. 9 30. 1 11. 6 Western European 87.2 48. 8 16.9 56.5 19. 8 6,. 2 Eastern European 85. 6 37. 0 8.4 41.4 8. 2 1.5 1951 B r i t i s h 70. 6 24. 2 12. 4 44. 7 15. 2 11. 6 French 78.0 29. 8 12.5 55. 5 22. 5 15. 4 Western European 74. 7 27. 8 16.0 44. 5 14. 6 6.9 Eastern European 79.4 35. 0 13. 8 34.4 14. 4 2.7 1961 B r i t i s h 65. 3 19. 3 9.7 37. 2 11. 3 9.5 French 74.0 25. 6 11. 6 49.0 17. 5 14. 3 Western European 67.4 22. 0 10. 3 33.2 9. 7 6.4 Eastern European 72. 1 25. 1 11.4 33.1 9. 2 4.1 45-64 i n 1931. Sources: Census of Canada: 1931 (v. 4, t a b l e 49); 1951 (v. 2, t a b l e 30); 1961 (cat. 92-558, t a b l e 106). 214 d i f f e r e n t i a l s i s greater f o r women than f o r men. Two, a trend of convergence i n e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n marriage occurred, greater f o r women than f o r men, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n terms of age at marriage. For example, i n 1931, there e x i s t e d a 25.5 percent d i f f e r e n c e i n percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 and a 19.1 percent d i f f e r e n c e at 25-34. By 1961, the re s p e c t i v e d i f f e r e n t i a l s were 15.9 percent and 8.3 percent. However, d i f f e r e n t groups were responsible f o r the s i z e of the d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n 1931 as compared t o 1961. In 1931, the large d i f f e r e n t i a l was i n the main due to the high n u p t i a l i t y of the eastern European women r e l a t i v e to the other e t h n i c groups. On the other hand, i n 19 61, eastern European women d i d not d i s p l a y s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y . Rather, the 1961 d i f f e r e n t i a l was due to the r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l s of percent s i n g l e r e g i s t e r e d by French Canadian women. Excludi n g French Canadian women from the a n a l y s i s , the d i f f e r e n t i a l i n 19 61 i s extremely s m a l l : 4.1 percent f o r the age group 20-24 and 2.1 percent f o r the age group 25-34. This f a c t suggests t h a t the trend i n percent s i n g l e over the p e r i o d from 19 31 t o 19 61 d i f f e r e d r a t h e r markedly f o r the e t h n i c groups. Indeed, the e t h n i c groups d i d r e g i s t e r d i f f e r i n g amounts of change i n percent s i n g l e over the time p e r i o d . Women of B r i t i s h e t h n i c o r i g i n d i s p l a y e d the l a r g e s t reductions i n percent s i n g l e at a l l ages. They were followed by women of western European o r i g i n . The 215 experience of women of eastern European o r i g i n was q u i t e d i f f e r e n t . They d i s p l a y e d increases i n percent s i n g l e at ages 25-34 and 45-54 and only a small decrease at ages 20-24. In the p e r i o d from 1931 to 1951, when the reduction i n percent s i n g l e at ages 20-24 was p a r t i c u l a r l y marked f o r a l l other groups of women, the eastern European women r e g i s t e r e d an increase of approximately 4 percent. I t appears t h a t eastern European women were engaged i n a process of shedding themselves of t h e i r t r a d i t i o n a l marriage p a t t e r n , which, as we have seen, was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by young age at marriage and v i r t u a l l y u n i v e r s a l marriage. In 19 31, they d i s p l a y e d the e s s e n t i a l s of t h i s p a t t e r n : by 1961, they d i s p l a y e d a "Canadian" marriage p a t t e r n . In so doing, they were r e l a t i v e l y immune to the trend of reduction i n percent s i n g l e t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e d the other groups of women i n Canada. The case of the French women was d i f f e r e n t again. They, i n 1931, d i d not e x h i b i t percents s i n g l e t h a t were d i f f e r e n t than B r i t i s h women i n any major way. A l s o , they e x h i b i t e d the general p a t t e r n of d e c l i n e , at l e a s t f o r the age groups 20-24 and 25-34. T h e i r d e v i a t i o n i n 1961 r e s u l t s from the f a c t that the reductions they d i s p l a y e d were not l a r g e , p a r t i c u l a r l y as compared w i t h B r i t i s h and western European women i n the age group 20-24. Thus, although French women d i s p l a y e d a trend toward younger age at marriage, i t was a r e l a t i v e l y small change. 216 The trend i n extent of permanent c e l i b a c y from 19 31 to 1961 was s i m i l a r l y diverse f o r the d i f f e r e n t groups of women. Only B r i t i s h women d i s p l a y e d a reduction i n the percent s i n g l e at ages 45-54. The French and eastern European women r e g i s t e r e d increases of s i m i l a r magnitude, approximately 2.5 percent, but from widely d i f f e r i n g l e v e l s i n 1931. The conclusion that can be drawn concerning e t h n i c marriage patterns f o r women i s t h a t a convergence has occurred. In 19 31, a c l e a r l i n e can be drawn between the n u p t i a l i t y of women of a l l western European o r i g i n s , on the one hand, and women of eastern European o r i g i n , on the other, a l i n e corresponding to the d i s t i n c t i o n between western and eastern European marriage p a t t e r n s , as brought to l i g h t by Hajnal (1965). By 1961, the l i n e had disappeared i n the l i g h t of the d i f f e r e n t i a l amounts of change i n n u p t i a l i t y experienced by the two groups. This observation provides support f o r the argument that a Canadian marriage norm emerged during the course of the twent i e t h Century. However, a c e r t a i n q u a l i f i c a t i o n must be made. The percent s i n g l e at a l l age groups f o r B r i t i s h , western European and eastern European women i n 19 61 was extremely s i m i l a r . French women stand out i n that year f o r t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l s of the percent s i n g l e . The former groups of women have been a s s i m i l a t e d , f o r the most p a r t , i n what could be c a l l e d Anglo-Canadian c u l t u r e whereas the French women e x i s t apart i n a separate l i n g u i s t i c and c u l t u r a l m i l i e u , g e o g r a p h i c a l l y separated from t h e i r English-speaking counterparts. I t could be argued that two separate norms concerning marriage have emerged, one i n Anglophone Canada and one i n Francophone Canada. However, the opinion o f f e r e d here i s t h a t s u f f i c i e n t grounds do not e x i s t f o r such an argument. A counter-argument can be made on the f o l l o w i n g grounds. One, the d i f f e r e n t i a l t h a t e x i s t s i n 1961 i s not a l l t h a t l a r g e ; i t i s 10 percent smaller than the d i f f e r e n t i a l at ages 20-24 and 25-34 i n 1931. Two, the tre n d i n n u p t i a l i t y f o r French women at ages 20-24 and 25-34 from 1931 to 1961 di s p l a y e d decreases t h a t are g e n e r a l l y comparable w i t h t h a t experienced by B r i t i s h women and western European women. Three, the percents s i n g l e d i s p l a y e d by French men i n 19 61 do not d i f f e r i n any s i g n i f i c a n t way from that of men of other e t h n i c o r i g i n s i n Canada. I f a separate French Canadian norm concerning marriage had emerged, we would expect i t to surface f o r French men as w e l l as French women. Looking at e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n male n u p t i a l i t y , i t has already been pointed out t h a t they are smaller than i n the case of females. There i s no c l e a r - c u t trend of convergence simply because there e x i s t e d r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n to s t a r t w i t h . Nevertheless, i n 19 61, the et h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n percent s i n g l e are smaller f o r men than f o r women at a l l ages. 218 The d i f f e r e n t i a l t h a t does e x i s t i n 19 31 p o i n t s to the higher l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y experienced by eastern European males, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n terms of lower l e v e l s of permanent c e l i b a c y . By 1961, eastern European men no longer d i s t i n g u i s h e d themselves i n terms of higher l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y . In 1931, B r i t i s h and western European men e x h i b i t e d the highest l e v e l s of percent s i n g l e ; by 1961, they d i s p l a y e d the lowest. Therefore, as was the case w i t h women, there e x i s t e d e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the extent of change i n the percent s i n g l e over time. The g r e a t e s t decreases were experienced by men of B r i t i s h and western European o r i g i n s . Lesser decreases, approximately equal i n magnitude, were d i s p l a y e d by French and eastern European males. These l a t t e r two groups experienced some increases i n percent s i n g l e at ages 45-54. Therefore, the same general observations concerning e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n n u p t i a l i t y can be made f o r males as f o r females. Eastern Europeans dis c o n t i n u e d e x h i b i t i n g r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l s of percent s i n g l e ; the l a r g e s t reduction i n percent s i n g l e was experienced by the B r i t i s h and western European groups; by 19 61, e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l s of the percent s i n g l e were r e l a t i v e l y small i n magnitude. The data concerning e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n female n u p t i a l i t y , both i n terms of l e v e l and tr e n d , are important i n t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h e t h n i c patterns of f e r t i l i t y 219 behaviour. The low t o t a l f e r t i l i t y rate f o r women of B r i t i s h e t h n i c i t y i n 1931 can be, at l e a s t i n p a r t , a t t r i b u t e d to low n u p t i a l i t y l e v e l s . S i m i l a r l y , eastern European women i n 19 31 e x h i b i t e d a high t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate i n conjunction w i t h high l e v e l s of n u p t i a l i t y . Women of western European o r i g i n s d i s p l a y e d intermediate l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y . This r e l a t i o n s h i p between f e r t i l i t y l e v e l and n u p t i a l i t y l e v e l , however, does not hold up f o r women of French e t h n i c background. They were c h a r a c t e r i z e d , i n 1931, by a high l e v e l of t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate i n conjunction w i t h low n u p t i a l i t y . In the case of French women, then, the mechanism of Malthusian l i m i t a t i o n was used t o the e x c l u s i o n of non-Malthusian c o n t r o l . Between 19 31 and 1951, the t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate f o r women of B r i t i s h o r i g i n and women of western European o r i g i n increased, as d i d t h e i r n u p t i a l i t y . For eastern European women, n u p t i a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y decreased. A d e c l i n i n g t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r ate c h a r a c t e r i z e d women of French o r i g i n , accompanied by some increases i n n u p t i a l i t y , although small compared w i t h the increases experienced by B r i t i s h -o r i g i n women. Thus, f o r groups other than French, l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y r ate and l e v e l of n u p t i a l i t y are d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d . S i m i l a r l y , change i n f e r t i l i t y and n u p t i a l i t y go hand i n hand f o r the p e r i o d between 19 31 and 1951. As a r e s u l t of convergence i n marriage behaviour, decreased v a r i a t i o n i n 220 f e r t i l i t y occurred. A tr e n d toward convergence i n n u p t i a l i t y can be seen i n data concerning p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l s of age at ( f i r s t ) marriage, as shown i n Table XXXVIII. For both men and women, an age span of more than 5 years i n average age at marriage e x i s t e d at the end of the nineteenth Century across the provinces. By 19 71, the age range i n p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n had narrowed to 1.1 years f o r men and 1.5 years f o r women. The provinces tended to e x h i b i t the same trend over time, w i t h s l i g h t reductions o c c u r r i n g i n the e a r l y decades of the present century, marked by some increase i n the depression year of 19 31, w i t h major reduction o c c u r r i n g a f t e r 1941. Convergence can be accounted f o r by the l a r g e r reductions i n average age at marriage i n the provinces t h a t i n i t i a l l y d i s p l a y e d r e l a t i v e l y o l d ages at marriage, g e n e r a l l y the provinces i n the west, i n the case of men, and the provinces i n eastern Canada, i n the case of women. The wider range of p r o v i n c i a l v a r i a t i o n i n the years spanning the tu r n of the century was l a r g e l y due to the marriage p a t t e r n e x h i b i t e d i n the western provinces, p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r women. That p a t t e r n , of younger age at marriage f o r women, was l a r g e l y due to two f a c t o r s : sex r a t i o d i s t o r t i o n h i g h l y favourable to marriage f o r women, and the e t h n i c background of the women r e s i d i n g i n these provinces. Throughout the course of t h i s century, the sex r a t i o became normalized and e t h n i c d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n marriage 221 T a b l e XXXVIII Average Age o f ( F i r s t ) M a r r i a g e 1 f o r Males and Females. P r o v i n c e s , 1891-1971 Average Age 1891 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 Males Newfoundland 24. .4 23. ,6 22. .9 P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d 31. .1 31. .0 30. ,0 29, .7 26, .4 25, ,1 23. ,3 23. .1 Nova S c o t i a 30. .1 29. .5 28. .7 28, . 7 25. .6 24, .8 23, .3 23. ,1 New Brunswick 29. .4 28