Open Collections

UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

The impact of modernization on British Columbia electoral patterns : communications development and the… Wilson, Robert Jeremy 1978

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1978_A1 W54_6.pdf [ 21.86MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0094497.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0094497-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0094497-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0094497-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0094497-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0094497-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0094497-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0094497-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0094497.ris

Full Text

THE  IMPACT OF MODERNIZATION  ELECTORAL AND  ON B R I T I S H  PATTERNS: COMMUNICATIONS  THE UNIFORMITY  COLUMBIA  DEVELOPMENT  OF SWING, 190 3-1975  by  ROBERT JEREMY WILSON B.A M.A  U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a , 1967 U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a , 1970  A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department o f P o l i t i c a l  Science  We a c c e p t t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n as conforming to t h e required standard  THE  UNIVERSITY  OF B R I T I S H  September  (cT)  Robert  COLUMBIA  1978  Jeremy W i l s o n ,  1978  In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s  thesis  an advanced degree at the L i b r a r y I further for  of  this  fulfilment of  the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h  s h a l l make it  freely  available  for  agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e  scholarly  by h i s  in p a r t i a l  the  requirements  Columbia,  I agree  reference and copying o f  this  for  that  study. thesis  purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or  representatives. thesis for  It  financial  i s understood that gain s h a l l  written permission.  Department The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1W5  Columbia  not  copying or  publication  be allowed without my  ABSTRACT  This  study  e x p l o r e s changes i n B r i t i s h  Columbia  toral  patterns during the twentieth century,  these  changes t o dimensions  modernization. shift and  of s o c i e t a l  elec-  and r e l a t e s  and p o l i t i c a l  I t f o c u s s e s on s w i n g , t h e p e r c e n t a g e  i n a party's support  between two s u c c e s s i v e  point  elections,  e x a m i n e s c o n s t i t u e n c y - arid s u b c o n s t i t u e n c y - l e v e l r e s u l t s  in provincial tested  elections  between 1903 a n d 1975.  i s t h a t development o f t h e p r o v i n c e ' s  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e was a c e n t r a l ments w h i c h t o o k The  first  The t h e s i s  communications  cause o f t h e e l e c t o r a l  develop-  place.  p a r t o f the study  clarifies  the e l e c t o r a l  d e v e l o p m e n t s by t r a c i n g c h a n g e s i n t h e l e v e l  o f swing  f o r m i t y and the degree o f swing p a t t e r n i n g .  I t begins  evidence  t h a t s w i n g s became much more u n i f o r m  progressed. and  Analyses  nonmetropolitan  parallel elections  direction after  to indicate  toral  forces.  shifts  communities both  as t h e c e n t u r y  i nconstituencies  show t h a t s w i n g s o f  T h i s t r e n d t o swing u n i f o r m i t y i s  a d e c l i n e i n the importance  I t i s hypothesized  l o c a l i s m by f a c i l i t a t i n g  of local  that the twentieth  communications r e v o l u t i o n c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s electoral  with  and m a g n i t u d e were much more l i k e l y i n  1952.  taken  of electoral  uni-  century  decrease i n  the establishment of  locality-arching patterns of p o l i t i c a l  elec-  influence.  After we  demonstrating the increase  examine t h r e e  developments which c o u l d  The p r e m i s e u n d e r l y i n g increased  patterning  this  atory  Tests  The  trend  more l i k e l y  account f o r increased  was  i n the explan-  competitiveness,  and r e g i o n — s h o w  that  the  n o t a c c o u n t e d f o r by  to uniformity  aggregates with d i f f e r e n t simply  may  variables—electoral  i n swing v a r i a n c e  patterning.  trend.  o f s w i n g by t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f  socio-economic composition, decline  e x p l a i n the  f o r c r o s s - e l e c t i o n changes  power o f t h r e e  uniformity,  part of the study i s that  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s o r communities uniformity.  i n swing  was  increased  unpatterned; voter  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and  t o produce p a r a l l e l  overall  l o c a t i o n s were  swings i n l a t e r  elec-  tions. The  second p a r t of the study explores  these developments. pretation  The  communications  The  improvements  i n communications  an i n c r e a s e  communications  i n the u n i f o r m i t y  on d i s p e r s e d  constituencies  to b r i n g about i n c r e a s e d  These s t a t e :  and t h e t r e n d  that  infrastructure contributed of electoral  forces  and c o m m u n i t i e s ,  swing u n i f o r m i t y .  (a) t h a t t h e r e  t o swing u n i f o r m i t y ;  r e g i o n a l communications iii  (b) t h a t  patterns  operating  C h a p t e r s 7 and  from t h i s  should  to  and t h u s h e l p e d 8  interpre-  be a d e t a i l e d  c o r r e s p o n d e n c e between t h e p a c e o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n s  intense  inter-  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n argues  four p r o p o s i t i o n s which are d e r i v e d  tation.  development  i s t e s t e d and a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a r e  considered.  test  the reasons f o r  development  the appearance of  should  p r e d i c t the  regional  swing p a t t e r n s which marked the 1969, 1972 and 1975  elections; the  (c) t h a t r e g i o n a l  differences  i n the t i m i n g of  t r e n d t o u n i f o r m i t y should be e x p l a i n e d by  differences  i n the pace o f communications development; and (d) t h a t communications i s o l a t i o n should e x p l a i n  the tendency o f some  contemporary communities t o swing i n ways which that they a r e i n s u l a t e d  indicate  from p r e v a i l i n g e l e c t o r a l  forces.  The r e s u l t s o f these t e s t s enhance the c r e d i b i l i t y o f the  communications i n t e r p r e t a t i o n .  alternative  interpretations  In s p e c u l a t i n g  about  we acknowledge t h a t a complete  c a u s a l map wduld have t o grant other f a c t o r s an important place.  But the evidence s u p p o r t i n g the t e s t  and the f a c t t h a t  the most p l a u s i b l e  propositions,  alternative  interpre-  t a t i o n s complement the communications i n t e r p r e t a t i o n ,  argue  t h a t communications change was a p r i n c i p a l cause o f the p r o v i n c i a l i z a t i o n o f B r i t i s h Columbia e l e c t o r a l p o l i t i c s . Communications  modernization a l t e r e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p  between  geography and the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e l e c t o r a l r e s u l t s .  Supervisor:  iv  TABLE OF  CONTENTS  ABSTRACT  i i  LIST OF TABLES  viii  LIST OF FIGURES  xi  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  xiv  Chapter 1  2  INTRODUCTION  1  E l e c t o r a l L o c a l i s m and Communications Change  2  P a t t e r n i n g o f Swing by E l e c t o r a l C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s  8  P a t t e r n i n g o f Swing by Socio-Economic Composition  9  P a t t e r n i n g o f Swing by Region  13  An Unpatterned Trend t o Swing U n i f o r m i t y  16  Conclusion  20  INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTUAL AND UNDERPINNINGS OF THE STUDY  METHODOLOGICAL 30  I n f e r e n c e s from Uniform Swings t o Uniform F o r c e s : The Stokes-Katz Exchange  33  C o n c e p t u a l i z i n g U n i f o r m i t y o f Swing: Percentage P o i n t v e r s u s P r o p o r t i o n a t e Measures  46  Comparison o f Swings Where There i s C o n s t i t u e n c y V a r i a t i o n i n the Presence o f Minor P a r t i e s on the B a l l o t Data R e l a t e d Problems 3  '  54 57  DESCRIPTION AND PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF TREND TO UNIFORMITY OF ELECTORAL SWING .  THE 76  F i n d i n g s : Swing U n i f o r m i t y A c r o s s V o t e r Aggregates, 1903-1975 The Argument t h a t Trends are an A r t i f a c t the I n c r e a s e d S i z e o f V o t e r Aggregates  77 of 87  The Argument t h a t Trends to..Uniformity.i.Would D i s a p p e a r i f the E f f e c t s o f S h i f t s i n Community Composition Were Removed  90  The Argument t h a t D i f f e r e n c e s i n C o n s i s t e n c y o f Minor P a r t y Presence on the B a l l o t Cause the Observed Trends  91  v  Chapter The Argument t h a t t h e F i n d i n g s May be A r t i f a c t u a l o f Increased Uniformity o f Base L e v e l s o f P a r t y Support  95  The Argument t h a t t h e Observed Trends A r e an A r t i f a c t o f Changes i n the E l e c t o r a l System  4  5  98  A Further Test: Uniformity Within Constituencies  102  Conclusion  106  PATTERNING OF SWING BY ELECTORAL COMPETITIVENESS  109  Methodology  112  The  117  Findings  THE PATTERNING OF ELECTORAL SWING BY SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMPOSITION  123  Socio-Economic C o r r e l a t e s o f V o t i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia: I n t r o d u c t i o n  124  Design o f A n a l y s i s : C o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e P a r a l l e l R e g r e s s i o n Equations  129  T r i a l Runs o f the Models: Socio-Economic Composition and P a r t y Support  134  The Methodology Employed i n T e s t i n g f o r Explanatory The  Power o f P a t t e r n i n g Models  Findings  145  Interpretation o f Findings 6  142  164  THE PATTERNING OF SWING BY REGION  183  The Impact o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n - H i n t e r l a n d Division  184  The Impact o f a More R e f i n e d Categorization  189  Regional  D e t a i l e d Examination o f R e g i o n a l i s m i n Nonmetropolitan Areas  199  E v a l u a t i o n o f Some S t r a i g h t f o r w a r d Explanations o f the Findings  205  Conceptualizing Regionalism  214  Conclusion  218  vi  Chapter 7  8  EXAMINATION OF THE COMMUNICATIONS DEVELOPMENT INTERPRETATION  225  Correspondence Between t h e Trend t o E l e c t o r a l U n i f o r m i t y and the Pace o f Communications Development  228  The Communications T h e s i s and the Appearance o f R e g i o n a l Swing P a t t e r n s i n the 1966-1975 P e r i o d  250  R e g i o n a l D i f f e r e n c e s i n Paths t o Swing U n i f o r m i t y  262  EXPLAINING DIFFERENCES IN ELECTORAL INSULARITY  279  The Dependent V a r i a b l e s : Measures o f Electoral Insularity  282  Remoteness and E l e c t o r a l I n s u l a r i t y  285  M a r g i n a l i t y and D i v e r s i t y Electoral Insularity  291  as P r e d i c t o r s o f  Examination o f Cases w i t h Extreme I n s u l a r i t y Scores  302  C o n c l u s i o n : The S t a t u s o f the Communications Development I n t e r p r e t a t i o n 9  CONCLUSION  308 323  BIBLIOGRAPHY  338  Appendix A LIST OF PLACES IN THE SAMPLE OF NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES  367  B  C  D  E  AVAILABILITY OF CENSUS INFORMATION AND LEVEL OF AGGREGATION, 1931-1971 INTRODUCTION TO THE DATA SETS USED IN ANALYSIS OF PATTERNING AROUND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENCES IN CHAPTER 5 . .  371  375  REGRESSION EQUATIONS USED TO OBTAIN PREDICTED SWINGS IN 1972 AND 1975  381  MAPS SHOWING CONSTITUENCY VARIATION IN STATIC SUPPORT LEVELS: LIBERAL SUPPORT, 1941; SOCIAL CREDIT SUPPORT, 1963; AND NDP SUPPORT, 197:2.-  385  vii  LIST OF TABLES Table 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  A comparison o f p r o p o r t i o n a t e measures o f swing Swings t o be a n a l y z e d data  and percentage p o i n t  using constituency  48 level 59  Comparison o f sampled n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities o f v a r i o u s s i z e s w i t h t o t a l number o f p o l l i n g p l a c e s o f v a r i o u s s i z e s i n each c o n s t i t u e n c y  63  S i z e o f the nonmetropolitan e l e c t i o n y e a r s , 1933-1972  66  community sample f o r  H i s t o r i c a l comparison o f swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975, where swing i s measured as p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s h i f t  78  H y p o t h e t i c a l swings i n two communities: votes percentages  °^  H i s t o r i c a l comparison o f swing u n i f o r m i t y n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities, 1933-1973  and  across 85  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s nonmetropolitan communities a f t e r c o n t r o l s on community s i z e  89  H i s t o r i c a l comparison o f swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975, where swing i s measured proportionately  97  H i s t o r i c a l comparison o f swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s communities w i t h i n the same c o n s t i t u e n c y , 1933-1972  105  Trends i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p between swings i n government p a r t y support and assumed p a r t y e f f o r t : c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975  118  12  E t h n i c i t y v a r i a b l e s as p r e d i c t o r s o f p a r t y support  135  13  I n d u s t r i a l and e t h n i c i t y - r e l i g i o n v a r i a b l e s as p r e d i c t o r s o f p a r t y support  137  O c c u p a t i o n and income v a r i a b l e s as p r e d i c t o r s o f p a r t y support  139  11  14  viii  Table 15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  R e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s from an i l l u s t r a t i v e case i n v o l v i n g a p p l i c a t i o n o f e x p l a n a t o r y model C l t o swing i n NDP support, 1969-1972  144  E t h n i c i t y - r e l i g i o n v a r i a b l e s as p r e d i c t o r s o f swing  152  I n d u s t r i a l c o m p o s i t i o n v a r i a b l e s as p r e d i c t o r s o f swings  155  O c c u p a t i o n a l composition and income v a r i a b l e s as p r e d i c t o r s o f S o c i a l C r e d i t and CCF-NDP swings; 1960, 1972 and 1975  159  Income as a p r e d i c t o r o f swings; 1952, 1960, 1972 and 1975  163  Models ERC2 and C l compared w i t h models which i n c l u d e a f u l l range o f census v a r i a b l e s  172  B e s t p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s emerging as a r e s u l t o f stepwise r e g r e s s i o n w i t h t h e a l l i n c l u s i v e model o f c l a s s , e t h n i c i t y and r e l i g i o n e f f e c t s  173  The changing impact o f r e g i o n a l i s m c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975  196  on swing;  The changing impact o f r e g i o n a l i s m on swing; n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities, 1933-1972  201  The changing impact o f r e g i o n a l i s m on swing a f t e r c o n t r o l s ; c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975  210  Changes i n w i t h i n - r e g i o n u n i f o r m i t y a f t e r c o n t r o l s ; c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975  213  I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s among a b s o l u t e d e v i a t i o n s from swings expected i n 1972 and 1975  284  R e l a t i o n s h i p s between the i s o l a t i o n o f communities and t h e i r e l e c t o r a l i n s u l a r i t y , 1972 and 1975  287  R e l a t i o n s h i p s between the i s o l a t i o n o f communities and t h e i r e l e c t o r a l i n s u l a r i t y , 1972 and 1975 a f t e r c o n t r o l s on p o p u l a t i o n s i z e  287  ix  Table 29  30  31  32  R e l a t i o n s h i p s between the i s o l a t i o n o f communities and e l e c t o r a l i n s u l a r i t y ; 1941, 1952 and 1960, a f t e r c o n t r o l s on p o p u l a t i o n s i z e  290  R e l a t i o n s h i p s between e t h n i c and i n d u s t r i a l d i v e r s i t y , and e l e c t o r a l i n s u l a r i t y , 1972 and 1975  292  R e l a t i o n s h i p s between measures o f s o c i e t a l m a r g i n a l i t y and e l e c t o r a l i n s u l a r i t y , 1972 and 1975  296  P r e d i c t o r s o f e l e c t o r a l i n s u l a r i t y , 1972 and 1975 s e l e c t e d by stepwise m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n  298  X  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  Diagram d e p i c t i n g the e v o l u t i o n o f w i t h i n - and between-groups v a r i a n c e components  31  Three p o s s i b l e trends i n the r e l a t i v e magnitude o f w i t h i n - and between-groups components  32  Swings r e s u l t i n g when u n i f o r m e l e c t o r a l f o r c e s o p e r a t e on h y p o t h e t i c a l c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w i t h varying resistance levels  36  The Katz model: r e s u l t s showing c o r r e l a t i o n between n a t i o n a l vote movement and vote movement i n three h y p o t h e t i c a l d i s t r i c t s a c r o s s s i x elections  39  Diagram showing t h e p r o b a b l e e v o l u t i o n o f e l e c t o r a l f o r c e s and r e s i s t a n c e l e v e l s i n v o l v e d i n p r o d u c i n g i n c r e a s e d swing u n i f o r m i t y  44  The e f f e c t o f c o n t r o l l i n g f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n E i support l e v e l  55  Two h y p o t h e t i c a l c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w i t h d i f f e r e n t e l e c t i o n - t o - e l e c t i o n contest patterns  56  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y 1903-1975  across  80  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y communities-,; 1933-1972  across  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y 1903-1975  across  constituencies,  nonmetropolitan 84 constituencies, 94  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975, a f t e r e x c l u s i o n o f cases where base l e v e l o f support i s extreme  99  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities w i t h i n the same c o n s t i t u e n c y , 19331972  104  Diagram d e p i c t i n g assumptions about p a r t y i n government and o p p o s i t i o n r i d i n g s  115  L i s t o f r e g r e s s i o n models w i t h v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n each model -.  xi  effort  133  Figure 15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  Trends i n the e x p l a n a t o r y power o f two models i n c l u d i n g e t h n i c , r e l i g i o u s and c l a s s v a r i a b l e s , 1952, 1972 and 1975  147  Trends i n the e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h r e e models i n c l u d i n g e t h n i c , r e l i g i o u s and c l a s s v a r i a b l e s , 1952, 1960, 1972 and 1975 swings  148  Trends i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h r e e models i n c l u d i n g e t h n i c and r e l i g i o u s v a r i a b l e s ; 1941, 1952, 1960, 1972 and 1975 swings  150  Trends i n the e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h r e e models i n c l u d i n g c l a s s v a r i a b l e s ; 1952, 1960, 1972 and 1975 swings  158  D e p i c t i o n o f composition p a t t e r n i n g i n e a r l y and modern p e r i o d s and as h y p o t h e s i z e d i n the modern period  177  Trends i n the e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e metrop o l i t a n - h i n t e r l a n d d i v i s i o n ; c o n s t i t u e n c y swings, 1903-1975  187  A r e g i o n a l d i v i s i o n o f B r i t i s h Columbia w i t h a l i s t o f c o n s t i t u e n c i e s i n each r e g i o n  191  Trends i n the e x p l a n a t o r y power o f the t e n r e g i o n d i v i s i o n ; c o n s t i t u e n c y swings, 1903-1975  193  Trends i n w i t h i n - r e g i o n u n i f o r m i t y o f swing; c o n s t i t u e n c y swings, 1903-1975  195  Trends i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f r e g i o n ; swings i n n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities, 1933-1972  202  Trends i n w i t h i n - r e g i o n u n i f o r m i t y o f swing; n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities, 1933-1972  203  Trends i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e t e n r e g i o n d i v i s i o n a f t e r c o n t r o l s ; c o n s t i t u e n c y swings, 1903-1975  209  Trends i n w i t h i n - r e g i o n u n i f o r m i t y o f swing a f t e r c o n t r o l s ; c o n s t i t u e n c y swings, 1903-1975  212  Depiction of regional patterning i n different periods  219  xii  Figure 29  30  31  Growth o f the B r i t i s h Columbia r a i l w a y 1911-1971 Growth o f the B r i t i s h Columbia highways 1921-1971  network, 231 network, 231  Growth i n the number o f r e g i s t e r e d motor v e h i c l e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1921-1971-  232  32  Growth i n Canadian a i r passenger t r i p s , 1941-1971  232  33  Growth i n the number o f t e l e p h o n e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1921-1971  233  34  Growth o f l o n g d i s t a n c e telephone c a l l i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951-1971  233  Growth i n the percentage o f B r i t i s h Columbia d w e l l i n g s w i t h r a d i o , 1931-1971  241  Growth i n the percentage o f B r i t i s h Columbia d w e l l i n g s w i t h t e l e v i s i o n , 1953-1971  241  The pace o f communications development curve j u x t a p o s e d a g a i n s t curves d e s c r i b i n g the t r e n d t o swing u n i f o r m i t y  247  Trends i n the c i r c u l a t i o n o f newspapers i n nonm e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , 1920-1975  252  39  Growth o f r a d i o and t e l e v i s i o n s t a t i o n s , 1939-1975  257  40  Percentage o f d w e l l i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t d i v i s i o n s w i t h r a d i o , 1951  census 263  Percentage o f d w e l l i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t d i v i s i o n s w i t h t e l e p h o n e s , 1951  census  35  36  37  38  41  42  43  44  45  264  Percentage o f d w e l l i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t census d i v i s i o n s w i t h t e l e v i s i o n , 1961, 1971  265  Percentage o f d w e l l i n g s i n d i f f e r e n t census d i v i s i o n s w i t h passenger a u t o m o b i l e s , 1951, 1961  266  Trends t o w i t h i n - r e g i o n u n i f o r m i t y f o r f i v e m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n s , 1937-1972  269  L i s t o f p l a c e s w i t h extremely h i g h i n s u l a r i t y s c o r e s , 1972 and 1975  xiii  non-  electoral ..  303  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  I would l i k e tance with its  this project.  flaws.  Bob  were i n t e r e s t e d Amos,  and  limits  t o thank s e v e r a l people  Mel  o f my  None b e a r  any  for their  responsibility  M c D o n a l d , Andrew P e t t e r and and  helpful  friends.  Don  Virginia  Green,  E l e a n o r Lowther  thanks  t y p i n g and  about  many f a c e t s o f t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n .  calming Don  influence  Blake  time  and  and  throughout  David  the  her  Bryant  deserves advice  p a t i e n c e was  months o f t h e  e n c o u r a g e m e n t , and  s u p p l i e d p e r c e p t i v e and  f r i e n d -Durdica f o r h e r  Most o f a l l ,  l o v e and  xiv  support.  a  project.  E l k i n s were a l w a y s g e n e r o u s w i t h  c r i t i c i s m o f numerous d r a f t s . my  final  Her  reached.  G a i l Chin  helped with the graphic d i s p l a y s .  David  the  k n o w l e d g e o f computer t e c h n i q u e s were  D e b o r a h Watson a s s i s t e d w i t h t h e maps, and  for  MacDonald  K l a s s e n were r e a d y w i t h a d v i c e when  f o r more t h a n h e r e x c e l l e n t  assis-  their prompt  I want t o  thank  CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION  This  t h e s i s explores  modernization  of British  of p r o v i n c i a l  election  tury. the  I t focusses  t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e Columbia  swing p a t t e r n s  on e l e c t o r a l  percentage p o i n t s h i f t  successive  elections.  stituency-level century  voter  analysis  support  aggregates  to identify  nonmetropolitan  presented  parallel  direction  elections  f o r the  i n Chapter uniform  3,  as t h e  o f c o n s t i t u e n c y and  show t h a t s w i n g s o f  a n d m a g n i t u d e were much more l i k e l y i n  this  i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s undertaken i n order t o  t r e n d t o swing u n i f o r m i t y .  which i s i n t r o d u c e d 6, e x p l o r e s terned  results  point  a f t e r 1952.  A two-part clarify  Separate analyses  community  and s u b c o n -  changes i n swing  The b e g i n n i n g  by e v i d e n c e  progressed.  between two  i n e l e c t i o n s throughout the  w h i c h shows t h a t s w i n g s became much more century  cen-  s w i n g , w h i c h i s d e f i n e d as  Swings o f c o n s t i t u e n c y -  and s w i n g p a t t e r n s .  i s provided  i n the twentieth  i n a party's  a r e examined i n o r d e r  uniformity  s o c i e t y and t h e e v o l u t i o n  b e l o w and r e p o r t e d  changes i n t h e e x t e n t  by t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  p o s t u l a t e d t h a t an i n c r e a s e  The f i r s t i n Chapters  part, 4 through  t o w h i c h s w i n g was  of voter  aggregates.  patIti s  i n swing p a t t e r n i n g accounts f o r  1  2  the  trend to uniformity.  studies c l a r i f y f o r the  The  electoral  the  research  ications swing  principal  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e was  i n g the  values  first  aspects  thesis guiding of  the  this  the  of  part  province's  a c e n t r a l cause of  different sketch  century.  p a r t of the  of  commun-  increased  and  the  degree of  elections.  the  we  elucidate  s o c i o l o g y by  determin-  dependent v a r i a b l e s — t h e l e v e l  second stage  developments a c r o s s  o f a n a l y s i s we  independent v a r i a b l e s — c o m m u n i c a t i o n s dimensions of s o c i e t a l  and  of  swing p a t t e r n i n g — t a k e  In p l o t t i n g changes i n these  a p i c t u r e of e l e c t o r a l At  study  Columbia e l e c t o r a l  which our  swing u n i f o r m i t y  other  stage  uniformity.  changes i n B r i t i s h  we  patterning s e t the  d e v e l o p m e n t s and  i s that modernization  Thus, i n t h e  for  the  i n v e s t i g a t i o n which examines  r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e The  of  d e v e l o p m e n t s , and  second p a r t of the  modernization.  results  values  the  introduce  our  development a l o n g  political  on  change—in  with  an  attempt t o e x p l a i n t h i s p i c t u r e .  Electoral Localism and Communications Change B r i t i s h Columbia p r o v i d e s f o r p r o p o s i t i o n s about the d e v e l o p m e n t s on l a r g e and the rain  excellent testing  effects  electoral  diverse p o l i t i e s .  obstacles and  the  an  of twentieth  sociology of The  climate  are  easy t o a p p r e c i a t e .  century  geographically  province's  t o communication p r e s e n t e d  ground  by  vastness,  and  i t s size,  ter-  I t covers  366,255  3 square per  miles.  square  areas,  In 1971  mile, but  t h e r e were s l i g h t l y  o u t s i d e the  d e n s i t i e s were r e d u c e d  by  m i l e s by  the  community n e a r e s t  the p r o v i n c e ' s  and  742  respectively  in  541  and  southeastern  t h e m a j o r c e n t r e on  the  northern  boat  and  pockets  over  9 00 m i l e s by  are  terrain,  along with  separated  by  d i s t a n c e on  patterns of s o c i a l  applied tieth  g o v e r n m e n t s and  the wealth  century  with  and  t o the  of geography. ago  One  i s almost  automobile,  valleys  to get  and  this  British  exaggerates ±he impact  have n o t  citizens  gone  of  unchallenged.  have a s s i d u o u s l y twen-  task of overcoming the n e g a t i v e  like  miles The  t e c h n o l o g i c a l advances o f the  a c o n t e m p o r a r y one,  Rupert,  475  from Vancouver.  need o n l y compare a r o a d map  ation of innovations or the  Prince  interaction."'"  These g e o g r a p h i c a l r e a l i t i e s province's  to  centre,  e i g h t m o u n t a i n r a n g e s and  location,  over  communities  the c l i m a t e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  Columbia's n o r t h P a c i f i c  The  regions.  of p o p u l a t i o n which dot the p r o v i n c e ' s  plateaus  It is  geographical  coast,  road  people  of Vancouver  t o the major  the northeastern  by  half.  from the major m e t r o p o l i s  miles  six  large metropolitan  more t h a n  500  and  road  two  over  or c o n s i d e r the  radio,  television,  some i n k l i n g  of  rapid the  of the  effects  50  years  dissemin-  telephone  success  of  2 these  efforts. I t was  curiosity  about the  impact  these which s t i m u l a t e d the present r e v o l u t i o n , w h i c h u n d o u b t e d l y had  of developments  study.  The  like  communications  a great e f f e c t  on  patterns  4 of  economic  and s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h i n  should also tion.  have  affected  patterns of p o l i t i c a l  By e x a m i n i n g c h a n g e s  geography changes  and e l e c t o r a l  Our  findings  conclusions like  argue t h a t  modernization. characterized  The  suggest that  about the impact o f  B r i t i s h Columbia.  was  v e r y much a l t e r e d  i n the f i r s t  local stimuli  half  and i n f l u e n c e s  The t r e n d t o s w i n g u n i f o r m i t y  development  this electoral  indicates  localism.  o f the communications  factors  to  1952.  modernization  infrastructure of the  that  helped i n geographical  a n o t h e r , and h a d h i n d e r e d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f  locality-arching patterns of p o l i t i c a l apparent diminution of e l e c t o r a l w i t h communications  The  interaction,  characteristics idea  that  to p o l i t i c a l  change,  seems  influence  The  consistent  increasing  s h o u l d have  of p o l i t i c a l  improvements  interaction.  localism  c h a n g e s w h i c h , by  of cross-area  spatial  lead  prior  which had s e r v e d t o i s o l a t e p a r t s o f t h e p r o v i n c e  f r o m one  bility  which  hypothesize  t h i s p r o c e s s by a m e l i o r a t i n g t h e e f f e c t s  by  had a r e l a t i v e l y  that  We  geo-  of the century  g r e a t e f f e c t on e l e c t o r a l s h i f t s i n e l e c t i o n s  undermined  between  r e l a t i v e l y n o n - u n i f o r m swings  elections  these  hope t o r e a c h  the r e l a t i o n s h i p  graphy and e l e c t o r a l s o c i o l o g y  between  and by r e l a t i n g  d e v e l o p m e n t s , we  and g e n e r a l i z a b l e  m o d e r n i z a t i o n on s o c i e t i e s  communica-  i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p  swing p a t t e r n s ,  t o communications  important  the province,  the  changed  possithe  networks.  i n communication  systems  and s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e i d e a  that  5 such has  d e v e l o p m e n t s c a u s e a breakdown o f p o l i t i c a l been p r o m i n e n t l y  ment.  Probably  p l a c e d i n models o f p o l i t i c a l  t h e b e s t known example i s K a r l  theory of s o c i a l m o b i l i z a t i o n . tion  o f developments i n c l u d i n g  ards  and  literacy,  infrastructure, in  motion  and  people  develop-  Deutsch's  that a  constella-  advances i n e d u c a t i o n of  i n which major c l u s t e r s  f o r new  will  of o l d  p s y c h o l o g i c a l commitments a r e e r o d e d  become a v a i l a b l e  stand-  communications  i n c r e a s e d mass m e d i a e x p o s u r e ,  "the process  e c o n o m i c and  It predicts  u r b a n i z a t i o n , expansion  and  localism,  patterns of  or  set  social, broken  socialization  3 and  behavior."  In a s i m i l a r  "development o f c r o s s - l o c a l wider  v e i n , Rokkan has  c o n t a c t s , " and  that  "entry into  a  market o f i n f o r m a t i o n exchange w i t h i n t h e n a t i o n , " a r e  among t h e  indicators  o f e c o n o m i c and  s o c i a l m o b i l i z a t i o n of  the k i n d " r e q u i r e d to t r i g g e r processes polarization and  noted  and  cross-local  e l a b o r a t i o n s of these  of  within-community  p a r t y development."  i d e a s have b e e n p u t  Variations  forward  by  5 other theorists  like  Lerner  and  Huntington.  A l l focus  to  some e x t e n t on p o l i t i c a l  changes a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the e r o s i o n  of  behaviour  patterns of p o l i t i c a l  local  influence agencies.  We  which are perpetuated  might term  this  erosion  by  process  "delocalization.." Models of d e l o c a l i z a t i o n British  C o l u m b i a was  not,  are s u g g e s t i v e here  d u r i n g the  even  twentieth century,  going c r i s e s of i n t e g r a t i o n or n a t i o n - b u i l d i n g l i k e experienced  i n the modernizing  s o c i e t i e s which are  though under-  those examined  by  the  aforementioned  localism  introduced  scholars."  The  here i s d i f f e r e n t  l o c a l i s m w h i c h i s p o s i t e d as  an  of  themselves frontier,  settlers,  British  s o c i e t i e s and  freed themselves  electoral  kind  of  national  Columbia i s a  a s o c i e t y o f p e o p l e who,  from o l d e r usually  than the  impediment t o  i n t e g r a t i o n o r regime maintenance. society  concept of  in  uprooting  moving t o t h e from the  western  traditional  7 commitments w h i c h a r e the  associated with  c o m m u n i t i e s w h i c h grew up  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by tural  traditional  solidarities,  assumptions,  subject  parochialism  had  they  geographical  patterns  o f i n t e r a c t i o n and should  suggesting leap  The  have p o s t u l a t e d all  of  i t s vestiges  presented  in this  province's that  the  localism.  twentieth  electoral  century  of p a r o c h i a l i s m  extent  is valid,  sociology  saw  British  to the  new  charac-  to  which  bounded.  t h a t we  are  But  t h e n we  i f the can  say  not  Columbia  politics  i n pure form.  been e r a d i c a t e d .  nature of the  This  based p a r o c h i a l i s m which  never present  study  outset  cul-  our  i n f l u e n c e were l o c a l l y  geographically was  the  if  part,  or  Its essential  and  made c l e a r a t t h e  politics  to  of parochialism. roots.  But  most  religious  were, a c c o r d i n g  around i s o l a t i o n  t h a t the  from the  modernity.  be  f o r the  linguistic,  to a kind  revolved  It  were n o t ,  still  teristic  parochialism.  Nor  of we  have  evidence that  the  c h a n g e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y , and  change s u g g e s t s a d e c l i n e i n  electoral  7 In t h e terning  remainder of  studies  explanations studies other  of  focus  on  the  trend  to  temporal  changes i n the  the  b e t w e e n - g r o u p s components. patterning  v a r i a b l e s which take a t u r n withinone  and  t h e n we  around the decline  In e f f e c t ,  and  region.  total  will  partitioned into  within-  want t o e s t a b l i s h , f o r (that i s , f o r each of  conclude that  swing the  the  a s e r i e s of  local  increased  helps  the  to  elecmore  patterning  to account  for  the  variance.  search  f o r new  or tightening patterns  exploration  s w i n g s w h i c h were r e l a t i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d by  Each  swing  d e f i n i n g " g r o u p " ) , how  away f r o m e l e c t o r a l l o c a l i s m .  A  of  three  possible  paths  we  have b e e n s u p e r s e d e d by  aggregates.  p o s s i b l e p a t h s away f r o m l o c a l i s m i n t h e to e s t a b l i s h that  In  sketching  sections  by  surmise,  i n which swing d i f f e r e n c e s c o r r e l a t e d s t r o n g l y  seek o n l y  of  situation characterized  n o n - u n i f o r m and,  f a c t o r s , may  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of voter  f o l l o w , we  (or, i n  t h e w i t h i n - g r o u p s component d e c l i n e s  swing v a r i a t i o n i n v o l v e s  the  We  variable i n question  in total  situation  patterning  that  I f comparative a n a l y s i s of  shows t h a t  rapidly,  Separate  b e t w e e n - g r o u p s components move i n r e l a t i o n  another.  tions  be  variables,  pat-  three v a r i a b l e s — e l e c t o r a l  simple truism  e l e c t i o n can  the  possible  swing u n i f o r m i t y .  socio-economic composition  i n a given  each o f the  introduce  w h i c h were d e s i g n e d t o e x p l o r e  i s p r e m i s e d on  variance and  c h a p t e r we  w o r d s , e x p l a n a t o r y ) power o f  competitiveness, study  this  a with  the  which  each p o s s i b i l i t y  has  8 a c e r t a i n amount o f p l a u s i b i l i t y . will  be l e f t  Patterning Electoral  until  t h e f a c t s have c l a r i f i e d  first  patterning  most s p e c u l a t i v e l y , competitiveness  or safety  assumptions s u p p o r t i n g C h a p t e r 4.  hypothesis,  of ridings,  correlate  Most c e n t r a l  decisions  with  swing.  The l a y e r s o f  are discussed i n  i s the assumption that of constituencies  party  strat-  when m a k i n g  a b o u t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f campaign r e s o u r c e s .  i s s o , and i f s t r a t e g y  i s pursued s u c c e s s f u l l y ,  the  d i s t r i b u t i o n of resources  and  an a s s o c i a t i o n  should c o r r e l a t e  with  If  then swing,  between s w i n g and t h e l e v e l o f s a f e t y  follow.  The tion  i n the e l e c t o r a l  and on t h e e x t e n t t o  t h i s hypothesis  consider the safety  should  developments.  and t h e one a d v a n c e d  f o c u s s e s on d i f f e r e n c e s  which these d i f f e r e n c e s  this  discussion  of Swing by Competitiveness  The  egists  More d e t a i l e d  l o g i c underlying the hypothesis that  this  associa-  s h o u l d have s t r e n g t h e n e d o v e r t i m e i s n o t b e y o n d  c o n t e n t i o n , b u t a t l e a s t one argument c a n be made i n i t s support.  M o d e r n i z a t i o n may have e n h a n c e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f  successful, it For  easier  centrally-directed electoral strategies  f o r s t r a t e g i s t s to d i s t r i b u t e resources r a t i o n a l l y .  example, t h e a b i l i t y  party  leader's  greatest  by making  o f campaign p l a n n e r s t o a l l o c a t e t h e  t i m e t o r i d i n g s where i t w o u l d a c h i e v e t h e  payoffs,  may have i n c r e a s e d  as a r e s u l t o f c h a n g e s  9  w h i c h made i t e a s i e r t o move a b o u t t h e p r o v i n c e . ization  did facilitate  then our  success  competitiveness elections  are  application  i n p r e d i c t i n g c o n s t i t u e n c y swings w i t h variable  should  Swing  i n c r e a s e as more r e c e n t  possibility  that socio-economic  derivation to a variety modernization  may  5.  have b r o u g h t  bolus  evolution.  undergo a n a t i o n a l  to our case.  possible electoral  r e p l a c e d by  developments.  of c e r t a i n  cleavages which overarch  interests.  t h e r e may "...  be  Lipset  they  s u b j e c t s and  do  suggest find  of s i m i l a r l y  some in  patterns  determining  factors,  areas  and  shared  bind  be  together  characteristics  Rokkan, f o r example, n o t e  households  Colum-  electoral  an e v o l u t i o n t o w a r d s f u n c t i o n a l  produce a l l i a n c e s  oriented  and  those  revolution  Most n o t a b l y , we  geographically dispersed c i t i z e n s with g and  First,  models a r e not a p p l i c a b l e  Nevertheless,  g i v e n the o c c u r r e n c e  owes i t s  Since B r i t i s h  or i n d u s t r i a l  t h e s e m o d e l s t h e theme t h a t l o c a l i s t i c may,  hypothesis  developments a k i n to  d u r i n g the p e r i o d s t u d i e d , these holis  The  might  electoral  of t h e o r e t i c a l o r i g i n s .  i n models o f c l e a v a g e  d i d not  composition  as a c o r r e l a t e o f  swing i s c o n s i d e r e d i n Chapter  bia  the  by Composition  have i n c r e a s e d i n i m p o r t a n c e  posited  of e l e c t o r a l strategy,  considered.  Patterning of Socio-Eoonomic The  the  I f modern-  that  conflicts  situated or  over wide ranges  which  similarly of  locali-  10 ties  and t e n d t o u n d e r m i n e t h e i n h e r i t e d s o l i d a r i t y  of the  9 established  territorial  In p a r t , as  communities."  this evolution  to functional cleavages  c o m i n g a b o u t b e c a u s e d i f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s become  politically societies  s a l i e n t as t h e s o c i e t y  i n character,  new i n d u s t r i a l  emerge and s u p p l a n t t e r r i t o r i a l evolution  organization  ones.  Urbanization,  extension local  ality  increased  In p a r t  also, the  i n o l d patterns  interregional migration,  and t o a h e i g h t e n e d scattered  t o an  and  erosion  s e n s e o f common-  individuals with  like  C o m m u n i c a t i o n s c h a n g e s s h o u l d make i t e a s i e r f o r  cleavage organizing  agencies  like  trade  together t h e i r dispersed  m o d e r n i z a t i o n may c a u s e l o c a l t o be r e p l a c e d hypothesized  unions t o i n f l u e n c e  members o r c l i e n t e l e s .  In e f f e c t , c l e a v a g e e v o l u t i o n  theory proposes  electoral influence  by c r o s s - l o c a l i t y p a t t e r n s .  that patterns  K e v i n Cox h a s  that:  Those b e l o n g i n g t o [ i n f o r m a l o r f o r m a l ] s o c i a l networks a t the l o c a l l e v e l w i l l be much more i n f l u e n c e d i n t h e i r p a r t i s a n a t t i t u d e s by t h e p o l i t i c a l m i l i e u a t t h e l o c a l l e v e l than w i l l be those b e l o n g i n g t o . . . s o c i a l networks a t t h e e x t r a l o c a l level. 1 Q  The this  of  and t h e g r o w t h o f new  o f mass media may a l l c o n t r i b u t e  among g e o g r a p h i c a l l y  pull  divisions.  o r communication,  solidarities,  interests.  and  F o r example, as  class divisions  may be a c o n s e q u e n c e o f d e c l i n e  social  the  changes.  t r a n s f o r m f r o m r u r a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l t o u r b a n and  industrial  of  i s seen  possibility  posed  i n Chapter  5 r e s t s on a v e r s i o n o f  h y p o t h e s i s which speaks t o the q u e s t i o n  o f -temporal  11  change: as t h e e x t e n s i v e n e s s o f networks i n c r e a s e s , t h e importance  o f the l o c a l m i l i e u or context should  I n c r e a s e d p a t t e r n i n g o f swing should  by d i f f e r e n c e s  i n composition  follow.  Other  d e v e l o p m e n t s m i g h t have c a u s e d  between s o c i o - e c o n o m i c  composition  reacted to r e l a t i v e l y  the association  and s w i n g  F o r i n s t a n c e , i t may be t h a t an i n i t i a l voters  decline.  localized  to strengthen.  situation electoral  where simuli  was  transformed  i n t o one where t h o s e  cialized. "  Changes i n t h e r o l e o f p a r t y l e a d e r s , c h a n g e s i n  campaign  style,  s t i m u l i were more " p r o v i n -  o r i n c r e a s e s i n government p r o v i s i o n  puts with u n i v e r s a l  impacts,  of out-  a r e some o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s  w h i c h m i g h t have c o n t r i b u t e d t o a p r o v i n c i a l i z a t i o n o f stimuli. The tions  significance  c a n be e x p l a i n e d a s f o l l o w s .  position  o f v o t e r aggregates  throughout  the century.  composition ferent  and s w i n g  That  the resultant  and h i g h l y v a r i a n t . by  But strong c o r r e l a t i o n s  would r e s u l t  swing between  provincialized  to local  by c o m p o s i t i o n ,  i s s u e s and p e r s o n a l i t i e s ,  s w i n g s w o u l d be l o c a l l y  idiosyncratic,  On t h e o t h e r hand, r e s p o n s e  c o m p o s i t i o n , b u t based  com-  o n l y when v o t e r s i n d i f -  c o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d  i f v o t e r s were r e a c t i n g  then  may have i n f l u e n c e d  would a r i s e  i s , swing  f o r our expecta-  The s o c i o - e c o n o m i c  a r e a s began t o r e a c t t o common,  stimuli. but  of p r o v i n c i a l i z a t i o n  on r e a c t i o n  determined  to provincial  i n swings which c o r r e l a t e d w i t h  issues,  composition.^  The  make-up o f v o t e r a g g r e g a t e s  swing because o f i n d i v i d u a l socio-economic  may r e l a t e  level  characteristics  to electoral  relationships  and e l e c t o r a l  between  switches, or  a l t e r n a t e l y because c o n t e x t u a l p r o p e r t i e s which r e l a t e t o composition  cause swings which a r e d i f f e r e n t  f r o m what w o u l d 12  be  expected  important  given those  individual  relationships.  What i s  i s t h a t n e i t h e r r e l a t i o n s h i p w o u l d be l i k e l y t o  appear u n l e s s v o t e r s i n d i f f e r e n t  a r e a s were r e a c t i n g t o t h e  same s t i m u l i .  of this  fulfilled  And t h e l i k e l i h o o d  s h o u l d have i n c r e a s e d o v e r  time  c o n d i t i o n being a s i s s u e s were  provincialized. Our British  limited  understanding  o f how t h e s e  Columbia's t w e n t i e t h century  frame h y p o t h e s e s  i n very  development  s p e c u l a t i v e terms.  change i n some o f t h e c a u s a l v a r i a b l e s considerable, but there i s l i t t l e  variables.  political  history  The l i t e r a t u r e provides  little  about changes i n t h e q u a l i t y munication tivities to  We know t h a t  evidence  which would  on B r i t i s h guidance,  Columbia f o r example,  and e x t e n s i v e n e s s  o f t h e com-  n e t w o r k s w h i c h b i n d t o g e t h e r members o f c o l l e c -  or interest  groups.  As a r e s u l t ,  the supposition that, given s o c i e t a l  occur,  sup-  changes i n i n t e r -  we a r e n o t a b l e  s e t down complex m o d e l s o f t h e change p r o c e s s .  with  l e a d s us t o  d i s c u s s e d has been  p o r t o r deny o u r s p e c u l a t i o n a b o u t s p i n o f f vening  ideas apply to  i ti s plausible  to expect  We  begin  changes which d i d  an i n c r e a s i n g l y  a s s o c i a t i o n between s w i n g a n d t h e c o m p o s i t i o n  strong  of voter  13 aggregates. justify  The p o s s i b i l i t i e s  investigation of this  predicted  electoral  sketched  in this  section  hypothesis; evidence  developments would j u s t i f y  of the  further  exam-  i n a t i o n of the processes involved.  Patterning  of Swing  The  third  increased impact  by  Region  possibility  i s that electoral regionalism  as l o c a l i s m d e c l i n e d .  of areal  contexts.  w i t h areas would c o n t i n u e  boundaries  extensive.  Electoral  tively  intense patterns of social  and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l i n t e r l o c k .  adopt  regional identities. These e x p e c t a t i o n s r u n c o u n t e r  the previous suggests  section.  and n o t j u s t  localistic  of modernization.  media  reladiffu-  V o t e r s would tend t o  t o t h o s e w h i c h c a n be  evolution literature  The s c h o o l o f t h o u g h t  that a l l t e r r i t o r i a l  increasingly  came t o d e l i m i t  interaction,  sion,  becoming  i n f l u e n c e c l i m a t e s whose  r e g i o n a l ones w o u l d  v o t e r s as r e g i o n a l b o u n d a r i e s  the cleavage  modernization  t o i n f l u e n c e swings w h i l e  synchronized with  from  causing the  The m i l i e u x a s s o c i a t e d  affect  derived  than  influence contexts to diminish,  may have b r o a d e n e d t h e s e  more s p a t i a l l y  Rather  electoral  discussed i n  introduced there  response  patterns,  ones, s h o u l d d e c l i n e as a consequence  As summarized by B l a k e ,  t h e argument i s  that: Over time, one can expect t o see a s h i f t from a " t e r r i t o r i a l " cleavage p a t t e r n i n which " v o t i n g geography" i s h i g h l y c l u s t e r e d and i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the p o p u l a t i o n o f a r e g i o n  14 d e f e n d i n g p a r t i c u l a r c u l t u r a l , e t h n i c o r r e l i g i o u s , o r economic i n t e r e s t s a g a i n s t t h e n a t i o n i t s e l f o r a g a i n s t o t h e r r e g i o n s , t o a " f u n c t i o n a l " cleavage p a t t e r n i n which s o c i a l c l a s s cleavages p r e d o m i n a t e . ^  A l t h o u g h t h i s model o f p o l i t i c a l support  i n t e s t s i n v o l v i n g European n a t i o n s ,  indicates ience.  that  Blake's  i t does n o t f i t t h e E n g l i s h C a n a d i a n  I n Canada, r e g i o n a l c o n t e x t  important of  e v o l u t i o n has r e c e i v e d  some  studyexper-  h a s p e r s i s t e d a s an  determinant of the vote i n s p i t e of the occurrence  some o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s w h i c h t h e t h e o r i e s  cause e v o l u t i o n .  There a r e , a c c o r d i n g  suggest  to Blake,  will  several  14 possible the as  explanations  persistence  o f these r e s u l t s .  They may i n d i c a t e  of r e g i o n a l socio-economic d i f f e r e n c e s  such  those connected t o v a r i a t i o n i n the rate of i n d u s t r i a l i -  zation. refers  Or t h e y may s i g n a l t h e r i s e t o as " l i m i t e d  identities"  o f what J.M.S.  Careless  b a s e d on a s c e n d a n t  provin-  15 cial  m e t r o p o l e s and p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t s . Some o f t h e s e i d e a s  tightening  contribute  t o t h e argument t h a t a  o f r e g i o n a l swing p a t t e r n s  for our o v e r a l l  increase  i n swing  Even though a l l r e g i o n s  might p a r t i a l l y  uniformity.  within  British  Columbia  m i x e s o f e c o n o m i c g r o u p s , t h e y a r e somewhat d i s t i n c t one  another i n t h e i r  relate mic  e c o n o m i c b a s e s and i n t h e way  to the p r o v i n c i a l ,  systems.  tourism,  They d i f f e r  mining,  contain from  they  n a t i o n a l , and t r a n s n a t i o n a l i n their  account  econo-  d e p e n d e n c e on f o r e s t r y ,  and a g r i c u l t u r e , as w e l l a s w i t h  respect to  16 their  status along  a metropolitan-hinterland  dimension.  15  With d i f f e r e n c e s  like  t h e s e , p r e s u m a b l y , go d i f f e r e n c e s i n  o r i e n t a t i o n s t o w a r d s p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s and g o v e r n m e n t cies.  Thus i t may be t h a t  political-economic pation  in  o f each r e g i o n  tending  locations within  these respects  differences  i n shared  ethos e x i s t , with the p r e v a i l i n g preoccu-  communities w i t h d i f f e r e n t ferent  regional  t o be w i d e l y  shared  across  e c o n o m i c b a s e s , as w e l l  the region.  may c o a l e s c e  as d i f -  Communities which  around a d e s i r e  region's  main i n d u s t r y ,  a perception  But  regionalization of electorally  One argument may be drawn f r o m C a r e l e s s ' politanism. dotted  Prince  region.  The n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n p a r t s by r e g i o n a l  centres  like  salient  of British  of regional  suggests centres aggressive strong  leaders  regional  o f p r o v i n c i a l economies.  centres  effective  would, i n p a r t ,  confident Careless  The g r o w t h o f  have r e s u l t e d  between t h e s e c e n t r e s  And w i t h t h e s e c h a n g e s ,  i n t e r e s t s based  George,  V a n c o u v e r and Edmonton became more  improvements i n l i n k a g e s peripheries.  Columbia  P e r h a p s , as t h e  e c o n o m i e s i n t h e same way t h a t  like  o f metro-  Kamloops, P r i n c e  R u p e r t , Dawson C r e e k and C r a n b r o o k .  about  attitudes?  discussion  c e n t u r y p r o g r e s s e d , t h e s e became more v i b r a n t , centres  treatment  why w o u l d m o d e r n i z a t i o n be e x p e c t e d t o b r i n g  increased  are  stimulate  of unfair  f r o m a government, o r a r e s e n t m e n t o f a n o t h e r  vary  f o r regional  e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , a demand f o r government a c t i o n t o the  poli-  i t could  from  and t h e i r be a r g u e d ,  i n t h e s u b m e t r o p o l e s w o u l d become more  disseminators of p o l i t i c a l attitudes  and images  to surrounding areas.  An i n c r e a s i n g degree of c o i n c i d e n c e  between swing p a t t e r n s and r e g i o n a l boundaries expected  would be  as a consequence of t h i s i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of w i t h i n -  region p o l i t i c a l  communications.  While l i t t l e  i s known about r e g i o n a l i s m i n B r i t i s h  Columbia e l e c t o r a l behaviour,  most renderings of the conven-  t i o n a l wisdom about p o l i t i c s i n the p r o v i n c e do a s s e r t t h a t r e g i o n has had a r o l e i n determining  e l e c t o r a l preferences.  E s p e c i a l l y prominent i s the n o t i o n t h a t t e n s i o n s and  differ-  ences between the m e t r o p o l i t a n and h i n t e r l a n d p a r t s of the p r o v i n c e have been The Chapter  important."*"^  i n v e s t i g a t i o n of r e g i o n a l e f f e c t s r e p o r t e d i n 6 begins w i t h a n a l y s i s of d i f f e r e n c e s across a crude  metropolitan-hinterland d i v i s i o n .  Our  a t t e n t i o n then t u r n s  to a more r e f i n e d c o n f i g u r a t i o n of r e g i o n s , and to a d d i t i o n a l a n a l y s i s of r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n the p a r t s of the p r o v i n c e .  nonmetropolitan  Once again, the t e s t s are  designed  to compare the extent to which e l e c t o r a l swing was  patterned  in different elections.  by  The h y p o t h e s i s , suggested  the  arguments outlinedlhere,, i s t h a t p a t t e r n i n g of swing by r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s should have i n c r e a s e d over  time.  An Unpatterned Trend to Swing Uniformity Our  three f o r a y s i n search of swing p a t t e r n s produced  negative r e s u l t s , and l e d us to j e t t i s o n most of the ideas  17  which u n d e r l i e the p a t t e r n i n g p o s s i b i l i t i e s .  In e l i m i n a t i n g  these p o s s i b i l i t i e s , we added c r e d i b i l i t y t o the view t h a t the t r e n d t o swing u n i f o r m i t y was unpatterned. there simply  That i s ,  appears t o have been an i n c r e a s e i n the extent  to which s c a t t e r e d and d i v e r s e v o t e r aggregates produce p a r a l l e l swings.  The f o r c e s behind  the t r e n d t o u n i f o r m i t y  seem t o have a f f e c t e d a l l v o t e r aggregates, r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o r geographical p o s i t i o n s .  Although  t h i s path away from l o c a l i s m was i n i t i a l l y viewed as our " d e f a u l t o p t i o n , " i t does have p l a u s i b i l i t y . arguments can be mounted i n support unpatterned  Several r e l a t e d  o f the view t h a t an  t r e n d t o u n i f o r m i t y should,  indeed,  have been  expected. In developing tions.  these arguments we again face two ques-  F i r s t , what c o n d i t i o n s would account f o r d i f f e r e n c e s  i n the general u n i f o r m i t y o f swing; and second, why would modernization  enhance these  conditions?  Common sense suggests t h a t o v e r a l l u n i f o r m i t y o f swing should vary w i t h t h e nature nature  o f e l e c t o r a l campaigns and the  o f the s t i m u l i p l a c e d before v o t e r s .  F o r example, i n  e l e c t i o n s f e a t u r i n g c h a r i s m a t i c l e a d e r s , o r i n "time o f emergency" e l e c t i o n s i n which appeals  a r e made f o r s o l i d a r i t y  a g a i n s t a common enemy, we would expect t o f i n d g r e a t e r than average u n i f o r m i t y o f swing across s c a t t e r e d v o t e r aggregates.  In such e l e c t i o n s , p a r t i s a n f o r c e s would p r e v a i l  relatively  evenly across t h e e n t i r e s o c i e t y , with  issues  18 which operate d i f f e r e n t i a l l y regional  lines,  being  b e h i n d what c o u l d  be  which would n o r m a l l y  relegated  be  s u c h e l e c t i o n s and,  be  relatively  part  to secondary  in effect,  dominant e l e c t o r a l argument c a n  be  presented  uniform  deals  should ety's The  r e n d e r an voters  first  part  significant  aggregates would concerns  i n support  the  with  of  likelihood  the of  developments which  increasingly large proportion  of the  susceptible to u n i f y i n g or d i f f u s e  second p a r t  and  stimuli.  increase  The  be  to t h e i r  view t h a t m o d e r n i z a t i o n should swing.  or  Differences  a l l voter  respect  class  importance  important would not  homogeneous w i t h  r e a c t i o n s t o the  locality,  termed d i f f u s e i s s u e s .  in  A two  across  suggests t h a t m o d e r n i z a t i o n put  soci-  appeals. i n place  the  c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h make s u c h a p p e a l s p o s s i b l e . Key  elements f o r the  drawn f r o m what may perspective,  1 8  and  be  first  p a r t of the  termed the  "new  e m p h a s i z e s t h e way  the  the middle c l a s s d i m i n i s h  logical  commitment.  The  weakening o f c o n n e c t i o n s groups. pool  middle  increases  second  the  focusses  of voters  who  t h o s e c e n t r i n g on l i k e h o n e s t y and t o have u n i f o r m  The  leadership competence.  impact a c r o s s  and  i n t e n s i t y of i n p a r t on  between i n d i v i d u a l s and  are vulnerable  first  in affluence  B o t h s u g g e s t t h a t m o d e r n i z a t i o n may  ideo-  the  social  increase  to d i f f u s e appeals  a t t r i b u t e s , or  be  majority"  f r o m mass s o c i e t y t h e o r y .  perspective s i z e of  argument can  the such  general  issues  S u c h a p p e a l s a r e more  likely  the  as  s o c i e t y i f socio-economic  19  d i s t i n c t i o n s are weak and i f there primary group o p i n i o n The  i s l e s s r e l i a n c e on  leaders.  second p a r t o f the argument proposes t h a t the  growth and u n i v e r s a l p e n e t r a t i o n  o f e l e c t r o n i c mass media,  e s p e c i a l l y t e l e v i s i o n , w i l l have important e f f e c t s .  The  advent o f these media opens the way f o r e l e c t i o n s conducted according  t o " a d v e r t i s i n g " o r " m e r c a n t i l i s t " campaign s t y l e s .  During e l e c t i o n campaigns, p a r t y a d v e r t i s e r s can d i r e c t the same message a t l a r g e u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d pools  of voters.  between e l e c t i o n s , the d i f f e r e n t community- and l e v e l aggregates comprising  And  constituency-  the t o t a l e l e c t o r a t e are pre-  sented w i t h s i m i l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f p o l i t i c a l events and s i m i l a r images o f p o l i t i c s .  Even more g e n e r a l l y ,  mass media encourage common c u l t u r a l p a t t e r n s  " . . . the  and values  21  among i t s heterogeneous audience."  Contrary  t o the argu-  ments we made above i n d e l i n e a t i n g the composition  pattern-  i n g p o s s i b i l i t y , the r o l e o f groups and o r g a n i z a t i o n s  may be  undermined i n the age o f t e l e v i s i o n , w i t h the r e s u l t t h a t there  i s an i n c r e a s e d p r o b a b i l i t y o f a d i r e c t flow o f com22  munication from source t o audience. An  extension  preconditions  o f these arguments s t a t e s t h a t , with the  f o r u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d appeals i n p l a c e ,  agencies  o f p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e change the content o f t h e i r messages t o s u i t the new media.  The way i s opened f o r s u c c e s s f u l  appeals made on the b a s i s o f p e r s o n a l i t y , o r image, and f o r p o l i t i c a l messages which s i m p l i f y r e a l i t y by c o n s t r u c t i n g i t  20  in  terms  o f p r e v a i l i n g myths, o r b y l i n k i n g  i tto powerful  23 symbols.  W i t h mass a u d i e n c e s i n r e a c h , " l o w e s t common  denominator" stress local  a p p e a l s make more s e n s e t h a n a p p e a l s w h i c h  division within  society  or the p a r t i c u l a r  concerns o f  electorates.  Conclusion We have i n t r o d u c e d stage o f our e x p l o r a t i o n electoral workable to  sociology.  i n t o changes  After  guided the f i r s t  in British  translating  hypotheses  these ideas  i n C h a p t e r 3, we t e s t  i n C h a p t e r s 4, 5 a n d 6.  developments  which  point  The p i c t u r e o f e l e c t o r a l  emerges f r o m t h e s e c h a p t e r s s e r v e s a s t h e  f o r t h e second stage o f our a n a l y s i s .  s w i n g u n i f o r m i t y by  relating  from t h e communications  w h i l e n o t unambiguously do s u g g e s t t h a t  a key r o l e  i n causing the e l e c t o r a l  four hypotheses development  communications  s p e c u l a t e a b o u t a more d e t a i l e d  That d i s c u s s i o n w i l l  return  which  thesis.  The  inter-  improvements  developments.  end o f C h a p t e r 8 we c o n s i d e r a l t e r n a t i v e and  develop-  supportive of this  pretation,  In t h i s  the trend to  i t t o communications  I n C h a p t e r s 7 and 8 we t e s t  are d e r i v e d results,  into a  the patterning  s e c o n d p a r t o f t h e s t u d y we s e e k t o e x p l a i n  ments.  Columbia  r e s e a r c h d e s i g n i n C h a p t e r 2, a n d o u t l i n i n g t h e ~ t r e n d  swing u n i f o r m i t y  starting  the ideas which  had  At the  interpretations,  map o f c a u s a l  mechanisms.  us t o t h e t h o u g h t s j u s t p r e s e n t e d  a b o u t t h e r e a s o n s f o r an u n p a t t e r n e d t r e n d t o s w i n g  uniformity.  21 The  g e n e r a l focus of the t h e s i s ,  electoral Canadian  p a t t e r n s , has political  subjected  received l i t t l e  scientists.  the v o t i n g h i s t o r i e s  a n a l y s e s and  historical  change i n  attention  Political  sociologists  of other s o c i e t i e s  have been r e w a r d e d w i t h  from  important  to  have  thorough  insights  con-  24 cernxng  the  impact  of modernization.  But  the  "historical  traces"  c o n s t i t u t e d by d a t a on Canada's e l e c t o r a l  history  25 have r e m a i n e d  f o r t h e most p a r t u n t i l l e d .  Whatever  the  26 reasons, I t has  this  meant t h a t C a n a d i a n  imperfectly and  n e g l e c t has  that  understood  had  unfortunate  political  implications.  sociologists  have  t h e r o o t s o f t h e phenomena t h e y  students of p o l i t i c a l  modernization  study,  have b e e n  d e p r i v e d o f t h e knowledge w h i c h might have been produced more s t u d i e s o f Canada's u n i q u e This  path  to  by  modernity.  study r e p r e s e n t s a step towards overcoming  this  neglect.  I t s h o u l d a d v a n c e o u r knowledge o f B r i t i s h  Columbia  political  history,  insights on  about  the  the p o l i t i c a l  polities.  w h i l e at the impact  same t i m e  providing general  of twentieth century  sociologies  developments  of geographically diverse  22 Footnotes ''"For f u r t h e r d e t a i l s on B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a g e o g r a p h y s e e : J . L e w i s R o b i n s o n , e d . , Studies in Canadian Geography: B r i t i s h Columbia ( T o r o n t o : U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1972); and J . L e w i s R o b i n s o n and W a l t e r H a r d w i c k , "The C a n a d i a n C o r d i l l e r a , " i n Canada: A Geographical Interpretation, ed. J . W a r k e n t i n ( T o r o n t o : Methuen, 1 9 6 8 ) , c h a p . 13. 2 See i n f r a , c h a p . 7, f o r a f u l l d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s e developments. 3 . . K a r l W. D e u t s c h , " S o c i a l M o b i l i z a t i o n and P o l i t i c a l D e v e l o p m e n t , " American P o l i t i c a l Science Review.IN (Septemb e r 1961):494. 4 S t e i n Rokkan, w i t h Angus C a m p b e l l , P e r T o r s v i k and Henry V a l e n , C i t i z e n s , Elections, P a r t i e s : Approaches to the Comparative Study of the Processes of Development (New Y o r k : D a v i d McKay Co., 1 9 7 0 ) , pp. 238-39. 5 See, f o r example, D a n i e l L e r n e r , The Passing of Trad%t i o n a l Society: Modernizing the Middle East (Glencoe, 111.: The F r e e P r e s s , 1958); D a n i e l L e r n e r , "Toward a C o m m u n i c a t i o n T h e o r y o f M o d e r n i z a t i o n : A S e t o f C o n s i d e r a t i o n s , " i n Communi c a t i o n s and P o l i t i c a l Development, ed. L u c i e n Pye (Princeton: P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 3 ) , pp. 327-50; D a n i e l L e r n e r , "Communication Systems and S o c i a l S y s t e m s : A S t a t i s t i c a l E x p l o r a t i o n i n H i s t o r y and P o l i c y , " Behavioral Science 2 (1957):266-75; Samuel P. H u n t i n g t o n , P o l i t i c a l Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 ) . See a l s o t h e e s s a y s by S t e i n Rokkan e n t i t l e d : "Methods and Models i n the Comparative Study o f N a t i o n - B u i l d i n g , " "NationB u i l d i n g , C l e a v a g e F o r m a t i o n and t h e S t r u c t u r i n g o f Mass P o l i t i c s , " "The M o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e P e r i p h e r y , " and " E l e c t o r a l M o b i l i z a t i o n , P a r t y C o m p e t i t i o n and N a t i o n a l I n t e g r a t i o n , " i n Rokkan e t a l . , C i t i z e n s , Elections, Parties. Additional w r i t i n g s by D e u t s c h on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between communicat i o n s and p o l i t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n c l u d e : K a r l D e u t s c h , Nationalism and Social Communication: An Inquiry into the Foundations of N a t i o n a l i t y (Cambridge: MIT P r e s s , 1953); and e s s a y s by D e u t s c h i n P h i l i p E. J a c o b and James V. T o s c a n o , e d s . , The Integration of P o l i t i c a l Communities (Philadelphia: J . B. L i p p i n c o t t , 1 9 6 4 ) . T h e r e a r e i n t e r e s t i n g and i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n s concerni n g t h e way t h e p r o v i n c i a l e q u i v a l e n t s o f t h e n a t i o n - b u i l d i n g and i n t e g r a t i o n c r i s e s were n e g o t i a t e d d u r i n g t h e n i n e t e e n t h centuy. B u t d u r i n g t h i s c e n t u r y t h e r e have n o t been s e r i o u s t h r e a t s to the p e r s i s t e n c e of the B r i t i s h Columbia p o l i t i c a l  23 community e v e n t h o u g h i n t e r e s t s i n b o t h b o r d e r and nonb o r d e r c o m m u n i t i e s have p e r i o d i c a l l y e x p r e s s e d s e p a r a t i s t u r g e s ( s e e , f o r example, "Towns.I'in.e r a i l t o jump s h i p — G o l d e n , F e r n i e , Cariboo:., m u t i n o u s , " Vancouver Sun February 15, 1974, pp. 1, 2). And n o t s i n c e D o u g l a s and B e g b i e i n the 18 50's and 18 60's has t h e r e been any r e a l q u e s t i o n a b o u t regime l e g i t i m a c y . F o r t h e most p a r t , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s n o n - i n d i g e n o u s p e o p l e a r r i v e d t o f i n d p o l i t i c a l community w e l l d e f i n e d and p o l i t i c a l r e g i m e f i r m l y i n p l a c e . On t h e establishment of p o l i t i c a l order i n nineteenth century B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a s e e M a r g a r e t A. Ormsby, B r i t i s h Columbia: A History, S t u d e n t e d . ( T o r o n t o : M a c m i l l a n , 1958), c h a p s . 3  5-11.  7 On s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e p r o v i n c e s e e A l f r e d H. S i e m e n s , " S e t t l e m e n t , " i n Studies in Canadian Geography: British Columbia, pp. 9-31; and J o h n Norris_, Strangers Entertained: A History of the Ethnic Groups of B r i t i s h Columbia (Vancouver: E v e r g r e e n P r e s s , 1971). A few c o m m u n i t i e s b a s e d on t r a d i t i o n a l ethnic s o l i d a r i t i e s d i d take root. Examples i n c l u d e Doukhobor c o m m u n i t i e s i n t h e K o o t e n a y s , and t h e F i n n i s h community o f S o i n t u l a on t h e c o a s t , g An a b s t r a c t model o f c l e a v a g e e v o l u t i o n and d i s c u s s i o n of t h e i m p a c t o f t h e n a t i o n a l and i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n s on c l e a v a g e and p a r t y s y s t e m s i n E u r o p e a n n a t i o n s i s p r o v i d e d i n Seymour M. L i p s e t and S t e i n Rokkan, " C l e a v a g e S t r u c t u r e s , P a r t y Systems, and V o t e r A l i g n m e n t s : An I n t r o d u c t i o n , " i n Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspect i v e s , e d s . Seymour M. L i p s e t and S t e i n Rokkan (New Y o r k : The F r e e P r e s s , 1967), pp. 1-65. See a l s o Rokkan, " N a t i o n B u i l d i n g , " and "The M o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e P e r i p h e r y . " For a more g e o g r a p h i c a l a p p r o a c h t o c l e a v a g e e v o l u t i o n s e e K e v i n Cox, "The S p a t i a l E v o l u t i o n o f N a t i o n a l V o t i n g R e s p o n s e S u r f a c e s : T h e o r y and Measurement," a p a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t t h e 1969 a n n u a l m e e t i n g o f t h e A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , New Y o r k . F o r a summary o f c l e a v a g e e v o l u t i o n l i t e r a t u r e s e e D o n a l d E . B l a k e , "The Measurement o f R e g i o n a l i s m i n C a n a d i a n V o t i n g P a t t e r n s , " Canadian Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science V (March 1972):55-59. For a study of h i s t o r i c a l r e a l i g n m e n t s i n American e l e c t o r a l support bases which i s based on a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e than the t h e o r i e s o f E u r o p e a n c l e a v a g e e v o l u t i o n , and w h i c h f i n d s t h a t r e a l i g n ments r e c u r p e r i o d i c a l l y , s e e W a l t e r Dean Burnham, C r i t i c a l ' Elections and the Mainspring of American Politics (New Y o r k : N o r t o n , 1970). I n a s i m i l a r v e i n s e e V. O. Key, "A T h e o r y o f C r i t i c a l E l e c t i o n s , " Journal of P o l i t i c s 17 ( F e b r u a r y 1955): 3-18. D o n a l d E . S t o k e s has a l s o t r e a t e d h i s t o r i c a l e v o l u t i o n o f A m e r i c a n v o t e b e h a v i o u r and f o u n d e v i d e n c e o f d e c l i n i n g localism. T h i s c h a n g e , i t i s s p e c u l a t e d , may be l i n k e d t o the c h a n g i n g s t r u c t u r e o f mass c o m m u n i c a t i o n s . See " P a r t i e s 1  24 and t h e N a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f E l e c t o r a l F o r c e s , " Party System: Stages of P o l i t i c a l Development, Dean Burnham and W i l l i a m N i s b e t Chambers (New U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1967), pp. 182-202.  i n The American eds. Walter York: Oxford  9 Lipset  and  Rokkan, " C l e a v a g e S t r u c t u r e s , " p.  10.  " ^ K e v i n R. Cox, "The S p a t i a l S t r u c t u r i n g o f I n f o r m a t i o n F l o w and P a r t i s a n A t t i t u d e s , " i n Social Ecology, eds. M a t t e i Dogan and S t e i n Rokkan (Cambridge: MIT P r e s s , 1969), p. 165. Cox f i n d s s u p p o r t f o r t h e p a r t o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s w h i c h c o n cerns the r o l e o f formal s o c i a l networks. That i s , people b e l o n g i n g to " a r e a l l y i n t e n s i v e " formal o r g a n i z a t i o n s (e.g., l o c a l s e r v i c e groups, church groups) but not " a r e a l l y e x t e n s i v e " formal o r g a n i z a t i o n s (e.g., l a b o u r unions, v e t e r a n s ' clubs) are much more a f f e c t e d by t h e l o c a l c o n t e x t . No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s a r e f o u n d when t h e c o m p a r i s o n i s made a c r o s s i n t e n s i v e and e x t e n s i v e i n f o r m a l n e t w o r k s . For r e l a t e d f i n d i n g s w h i c h c o n c e r n t h e e f f e c t s o f membership i n d i f f e r e n t r e l i g i o u s g r o u p s on t h e power o f t h e l o c a l c o n t e x t see D a v i d R. S e g a l and M a r s h a l l W. Meyer, "The S o c i a l C o n t e x t o f P o l i t i c a l P a r t i s a n s h i p , " i n Social Ecology, pp. 217-32. related p o s s i b i l i t y i s that great differences i n c o l l e c t i v i t i e s ' exposure to p r o v i n c i a l i z e d communications m i g h t s u r f a c e o n c e p r o v i n c i a l i z e d s t i m u l i became more i m p o r tant. F o r example, s t u d i e s o f e x p o s u r e t o t h e N i x o n - K e n n e d y t e l e v i s i o n d e b a t e s f o u n d marked v a r i a n c e a c r o s s e d u c a t i o n a l and r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n d i f f e r e n c e s . Such d i f f e r e n c e s might t r a n s l a t e t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n e l e c t o r a l response a c r o s s collectivities. P a t t e r n s o f s w i n g w o u l d t h e n be r e l a t e d t o community c o m p o s i t i o n . See E l i h u K a t z and J a c o b J . Feldman, "The D e b a t e s i n t h e L i g h t o f R e s e a r c h : A S u r v e y o f S u r v e y s , " i n The Process and Effects of Mass Communications, r e v . ed., e d s . W i l b u r Schramm and D o n a l d F. R o b e r t s ( U r b a n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , 1971), pp. 715-21.  12 The c o n t e x t u a l p e r s p e c t i v e has b e e n e m p h a s i z e d i n D o n a l d E. B l a k e , " C o n s t i t u e n c y C o n t e x t s and C a n a d i a n E l e c t i o n s : An E x p l o r a t o r y S t u d y , " Canadian Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science XI (June 1978). Blake argues t h a t the c o n s t i t u e n c y c o n t e x t w i l l be p a r t i a l l y d e t e r m i n e d by i t s c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s and t h e b a l l o t a l t e r n a t i v e s o f f e r e d , as w e l l as by i t s composition. H i s s t u d y shows t h a t c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s , p a t t e r n o f c o n t e s t , t u r n o u t , a l o n g w i t h c e r t a i n e t h n i c and o c c u p a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s r e l a t e t o d e v i a t i o n s from c o n s t i t u e n c y v o t e ( f o r t h e L i b e r a l P a r t y i n 1968) p r e d i c t e d from knowledge o f c o m p o s i t i o n and i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . For a study w h i c h summarizes a good d e a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n r e s e a r c h on c o n t e x t u a l e f f e c t s see G e r a l d C. W r i g h t , J r . , " C o n t e x t u a l M o d e l s o f E l e c t o r a l B e h a v i o r : The S o u t h e r n W a l l a c e V o t e , "  25 American  Political  Science  Review  LXXI  (June 1977):497-508.  13 B l a k e , "The Measurement o f R e g i o n a l i s m i n C a n a d i a n V o t i n g P a t t e r n s , " p. 57. F o r a b r i e f summary o f t h e "der e g i o n a l i z a t i o n " t h e o r y see M i l d r e d A. S c h w a r t z , P o l i t i c s and T e r r i t o r y , the Sociology of Regional Persistence in Canada ( M o n t r e a l : M c G i l l - Q u e e n ' s U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1974), pp. 7-12.  14  Voting  B l a k e , "The Patterns."  Measurement o f R e g i o n a l i s m  i n Canadian  15 J. Canadian  M. S. C a r e l e s s , H i s t o r i c a l Review  " ' L i m i t e d I d e n t i t i e s ' i n Canada," L (March 1969):1-10.  16 For i n t r o d u c t i o n to B r i t i s h Columbia's r e g i o n a l e c o n o m i c g e o g r a p h y s e e R o n a l d A. S h e a r e r , "The D e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a Economy: The R e c o r d and t h e I s s u e s , " i n E x p l o i t i n g Our Economic Potential, ed. R. S h e a r e r ( T o r o n t o : H o l t , R i n e h a r t and W i n s t o n , 1968), pp. 5-8; K. G. D e n i k e and Roger L e i g h , "Economic G e o g r a p h y , 1960-70," i n Studies in Canadian Geography: B r i t i s h Columbia, c h a p . 4; and James George N e s b i t t , " R e g i o n a l D i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e S t r u c t u r e and Growth o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a " (M.A. t h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1973).  17  See, f o r example, E . R. B l a c k , " B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a : The P o l i t i c s o f E x p l o i t a t i o n , " i n E x p l o i t i n g Our Economic Potent i a l , p. 25; and M a r t i n R o b i n , "The P o l i t i c s o f C l a s s Conf l i c t , " i n Canadian P r o v i n c i a l P o l i t i c s : The Party Systems of the Ten Provinces, ed. M a r t i n R o b i n ( S c a r b o r o u g h : P r e n t i c e H a l l , 1972), pp. 36-37.  18 F o r example, see Seymour M a r t i n L i p s e t , "The C h a n g i n g C l a s s S t r u c t u r e and C o n t e m p o r a r y E u r o p e a n P o l i t i c s , " Daedalus, No. 93 (1964), pp. 271-303; O t t o K i r c h h e i m e r , "The Transformation o f the Western European P a r t y Systems," i n P o l i t i c a l Parties and P o l i t i c a l Development, eds. Joseph La Palombara and Myron W e i n e r ( P r i n c e t o n : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966), pp. 177-200; and R o b e r t E. L a n e , "The P o l i t i c s o f C o n s e n s u s i n an Age o f A f f l u e n c e , " American Political Science Review L I X (December 1965):874-95.  19  On mass s o c i e t y t h e o r y see W i l l i a m K o r n h a u s e r , The P o l i t i c s of Mass Society ( G l e n c o e : The F r e e P r e s s , 1955); Edward A. S h i l s , "The T h e o r y o f Mass S o c i e t y , " i n Center and Periphery: Essays in Macrosociology, by Edward A. S h i l s ( C h i c a g o : U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1975); and H a r o l d L. W i l e n s k y , "Mass S o c i e t y and Mass C u l t u r e , " i n Reader in Public Opinion and Communication, 2d ed., e d s . B e r n a r d B e r e l s o n and M o r r i s J a n o w i t z (New Y o r k : The F r e e P r e s s ,  26 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 293-327. For a b r i e f review of c l a s s i c a l v e r s i o n s o f mass s o c i e t y w r i t i n g f r o m Comte t h r o u g h T o n n i e s and D u r k heim s e e M e l v i n L. D e f l e u r and S a n d r a B a l l - R o k e a c h , Theories of Mass Communication, 3d e d . (New Y o r k : D a v i d McKay Co., 1975), c h a p . 6. 20 R i c h a r d J e n s e n , " A m e r i c a n E l e c t i o n Campaigns: A T h e o r e t i c a l and H i s t o r i c a l Typology," a paper d e l i v e r e d a t t h e 1968 c o n v e n t i o n o f t h e Midwest P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , c i t e d i n W a l t e r Dean Burnham, C r i t i c a l Elections and the Mainspring . of American P o l i t i c s , pp. 72-73, 95-96. Jensen c o n t r a s t s t h e a d v e r t i s i n g campaign s t y l e w i t h t h e m i l i t a r i s t s t y l e w h i c h was r e l i a n t on a s t r o n g l y m o t i v a t e d o r g a n i z a t i o n at t h e l o c a l l e v e l . I n t h e a d v e r t i s i n g s t y l e "an a p p e a l must be made t o u n a f f i l i a t e d o r i n d e p e n d e n t v o t e r s a n d i t can no l o n g e r be made by r e a c t i v a t i o n o f p a r t y l o y a l t y . A d v e r t i s i n g i s the basic technique of the m e r c a n t i l i s t i c s t y l e , and v o t e r s a r e t r e a t e d l i k e p o t e n t i a l consumers o f merchandise" ( J e n s e n q u o t e d i n Burnham, p . 9 6 ) . 21 H a r v e y Waterman, P o l i t i c a l Change in Contemporary France: The P o l i t i c s of an I n d u s t r i a l Democracy (Columbus: C h a r l e s E . M e r r i l l , 1 9 6 9 ) , p . 35. 22 A r g u m e n t s a b o u t t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e mass m e d i a (and about t h e tendency o f p r i m a r y and secondary group r e l a t i o n s t o a t r o p h y i n mass s o c i e t y ) h a v e , o f c o u r s e , b e e n met w i t h a r g u m e n t s b a s e d on t h e w e l l - k n o w n e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e i m p o r tance o f f a c e - t o - f a c e o p i n i o n l e a d e r s p e r s i s t s even a f t e r mass m e d i a . T h i s e v i d e n c e i s p u t f o r w a r d i n s e v e r a l s t u d i e s which p o s t u l a t e a two-step flow o f communication from t h e media t o o p i n i o n l e a d e r s , a n d t h e n t o l e s s i n v o l v e d members of t h e mass p u b l i c . S e e , f o r example, P a u l F. L a z a r s f e l d , B e r n a r d B e r e l s o n , and H a z e l G a u d e t , The People's Choice (New Y o r k : C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1948); B e r n a r d B e r e l s o n , P a u l F. L a z a r s f e l d and W i l l i a m N. McPhee, Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a P r e s i d e n t i a l Campaign (Chicago: U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1954); E l i h u K a t z a n d P. F. L a z a r s f e l d , Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communications ( G l e n c o e : The F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 5 5 ) ; and J o s e p h T. K l a p p e r , The Effects of Mass Communication (New Y o r k : The F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 0 ) . The argument t h a t t h e mass m e d i a ' s i m p o r t a n c e s h o u l d n o t be d o w n p l a y e d h a s b e e n l e d by K u r t and G l a d y s L a n g . They a r g u e t h a t campaign s t u d i e s s u c h as t h e E l m i r a s t u d y " . . . have f o c u s e d on t h e s h o r t - r a n g e influences operating during the period of active electioneeri n g and on how t h e s e c u l m i n a t e i n a f i n a l v o t i n g d e c i s i o n . I t so happens . . . t h a t t h i s approach t o t h e problem, w i t h i t s emphasis on i n d i v i d u a l c o n v e r s i o n d u r i n g t h e ' o f f i c i a l ' campaign, m i n i m i z e s t h e i m p o r t a n t c u m u l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s o f t h e mass m e d i a and e m p h a s i z e s i n s t e a d how p o l i t i c a l communi-  27  c a t i o n s are t r a n s m i t t e d through p e r s o n a l networks." Accordi n g t o t h e L a n g s , i n s t e a d o f f o c u s s i n g on t h e l i m i t s o f media i n f l u e n c e we s h o u l d t r y t o c l a r i f y t h e " c u m u l a t i v e and s o c i e t y - w i d e e f f e c t s a b o u t w h i c h we o f t e n t a l k v a g u e l y as s h i f t s i n p u b l i c moods o r d r i f t s i n p o l i t i c a l o p i n i o n . " Such s h i f t s o f t e n o c c u r between, r a t h e r t h a n d u r i n g , c a m p a i g n s . See K u r t L a n g and G l a d y s E n g e l L a n g , "The Mass M e d i a and V o t i n g , " i n American Voting Behavior, e d s . Eugene B u r d i c k and A. B r o d b e c k ( G l e n c o e : The F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 5 9 ) , pp. 234-35. A l s o s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e "unmediated communications f l o w " h y p o t h e s i s are: D e n i s M c Q u a i l , "The I n f l u e n c e a n d E f f e c t s o f Mass M e d i a , " i n Mass Communication and Society, e d s . James C u r r a n , M i c h a e l G u r e v i t c h , and J a n e t W o o l l a c o t t (London: Edward A r n o l d Publ i s h e r s i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h The Open U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 7 ) ; D o r i s A. G r a b e r , Verbal Behavior and P o l i t i c s ( U r b a n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , 1 9 7 6 ) , c h a p . 6, "Mass M e d i a and t h e V e r b a l D e f i n i t i o n o f P o l i t i c a l R e a l i t y " ; J o h n P. R o b i n s o n , " I n t e r p e r s o n a l I n f l u e n c e i n E l e c t i o n Campaigns: Two S t e p - F l o w H y p o t h e s e s , " Public Opinion Quarterly 40 ( F a l l 1976):304-19; W a l t e r W e i s s , " E f f e c t s o f t h e Mass M e d i a o f C o m m u n i c a t i o n , " i n Handbook of Social Psychology, 2d e d . , Vol. 5, e d s . G a r d n e r L i n d z e y and E l l i o t A r o n s o n ( R e a d i n g : A d d i s o n - W e s l e y , 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 141-54; and K a r e n S i u n e and F. G e r a l d K l i n e , "Communication, Mass P o l i t i c a l B e h a v i o r , and Mass S o c i e t y , " i n P o l i t i c a l Communication: Issues and Strategies for Research, e d . S t e v e n H. C h a f f e e ( B e v e r l y H i l l s : Sage P u b l i c a t i o n s , 1 9 7 5 ) , pp. 65-84. 23 On "image" and " s y m b o l i c " p o l i t i c s s e e G r a b e r , Verbal Behavior and P o l i t i c s ; M u r r a y Edelman, The Symbolic Uses of Politics ( U r b a n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , 1 9 6 4 ) ; and M u r r a y Edelman, P o l i t i c s as Symbolic Action: Mass Arousal and Quiescence ( C h i c a g o : Markham P u b l i s h i n g , 1 9 7 2 ) . 24 F o r e x a m p l e s , see e s s a y s c o l l e c t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g : Rokkan e t a l . , C i t i z e n s , Elections, P a r t i e s ; L i p s e t and Rokk a n , e d s . , Party Systems and Voter Alignments; Burnham a n d Chambers, e d s . , The American Party System; Dogan and Rokkan, eds., Social Ecology, p a r t s 5 and 6; L a P a l o m b a r a and W e i n e r , eds., P o l i t i c a l Parties and P o l i t i c a l Development; Stein Rokkan, e d . , Approaches to the Study of P o l i t i c a l P a r t i c i p a tion ( B e r g e n : The M i c h e l s o n I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 6 2 ) ; R i c h a r d L. Merr i t t and S t e i n Rokkan, e d s . , Comparing Nations: The Use of Quantitative Data in Crossnational Research (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966); E r i k A l l a r d t and Y r j o L i t t u n e n , eds., Cleavages, Ideologies and Party Systems: Contributions to Comparative P o l i t i c a l Sociology ( H e l s i n k i : Westermarck S o c i e t y , 1 9 6 4 ) ; R i c h a r d Rose, e d . , Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Handbook (New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 1974); and E r i k A l l a r d t and S t e i n Rokkan, e d s . , Mass P o l i t i c s (New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 1970). S u r v e y r e s e a r c h e r s have a l s o shown  28  i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t i n h i s t o r i c a l change i n v o t i n g p a t t e r n s . See, f o r example, P a u l R. Abramson, Generational Change in American P o l i t i c s ( L e x i n g t o n , Mass.: L e x i n g t o n B o o k s , 1 9 7 5 ) ; and Norman H. N i e , S i d n e y V e r b a and J o h n R. P e t r o c i k , The Changing American Voter (Cambridge: H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1976). 25 The most n o t a b l e r e s e a r c h on c h a n g e i n C a n a d i a n e l e c t o r a l p a t t e r n s i s D o n a l d E. B l a k e , "The Measurement o f Regionalism i n Canadian V o t i n g P a t t e r n s . " For e x p l o r a t i o n of a t h e o r y w h i c h c o n n e c t s m o d e r n i z a t i o n t o c h a n g e s i n t h e p r o v i n c i a l p a r t y s y s t e m s and p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e s , see J o h n W i l s o n , "The C a n a d i a n P o l i t i c a l C u l t u r e s : Towards a R e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e N a t u r e o f t h e C a n a d i a n P o l i t i c a l System," Canadian Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science V I I (September 1 9 7 4 ) : 438-83. 26 S e v e r a l r e a s o n s may be p u t f o r w a r d . The C a n a d i a n p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e p r o f e s s i o n i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l and t h e l a b o u r s o f i t s members a r e s p r e a d t h i n l y a c r o s s a l a r g e number of subject areas. Most o f t h o s e i n t e r e s t e d i n e l e c t o r a l b e h a v i o u r have f a v o u r e d s u r v e y r e s e a r c h , and d u r i n g t h e l a s t d e c a d e o r so have f o u n d ample o u t l e t f o r t h e i r e n e r g i e s i n the t a s k of a n a l y z i n g the r e s u l t s of n a t i o n a l e l e c t i o n s u r v e y s c o n d u c t e d i n 1965, 1968 and 1974. For a review of e l e c t o r a l b e h a v i o u r r e s e a r c h i n Canada, see D o n a l d E. B l a k e , and D a v i d J . E l k i n s , " V o t i n g R e s e a r c h i n C a n a d a : P r o b l e m s and P r o s p e c t s , " Canadian Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science VIII (June 1975):313^25; arid J . C. T e r r y and R. S c h u l t z , " C a n a d i a n E l e c t o r a l B e h a v i o u r : A P r o p o s i t i o n a l I n v e n t o r y , " i n The Canadian P o l i t i c a l Process: A Reader, r e v . ed., eds. O r e s t M. K r u h l a k j , ,, R i c h a r d S c h u l t z and S i d n e y I . P o b i h u s h c h y ( T o r o n t o : H o l t , R i n e h a r t and W i n s t o n , 1 9 7 3 ) , pp. 248-85. T h o s e i n c l i n e d t o examine h i s t o r i c a l e l e c t o r a l r e t u r n s may have b e e n d i s c o u r a g e d by t h e p r a c t i c a l p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f i t t i n g h i s t o r i c a l c e n s u s and e l e c t o r a l d a t a , t h e q u a l i t y o f d a t a , o r by s k e p t i c i s m a b o u t t h e v a l i d i t y o f i n f e r ences from aggregate d a t a a n a l y s i s . For d i s c u s s i o n of these p r o b l e m s s e e : W. S. R o b i n s o n , " E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n s and t h e B e h a v i o r o f I n d i v i d u a l s , " American Sociological Review 15 (June 1950):351-57; and W. P h i l l i p s S h i v e l y , " ' E c o l o g i c a l ' I n f e r e n c e : The Use o f A g g r e g a t e D a t a t o S t u d y I n d i v i d u a l s , " American P o l i t i c a l Science Review 63 (December 1969):1183-96. For more g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e u s e o f a g g r e g a t e e l e c t o r a l d a t a see J u a n J . L i n z , " E c o l o g i c a l A n a l y s i s and S u r v e y R e s e a r c h , " i n Dogan and Rokkan, e d s . , Social Ecology, pp. 91-132; and J o h n W i l s o n , "The Use o f A g g r e g a t e D a t a i n the A n a l y s i s of Canadian E l e c t o r a l Behaviour," a paper presented to the Canadian P o l i t i c a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n Confere n c e on S t a t i s t i c s , C a r l e t o n U n i v e r s i t y , O t t a w a , 1967. For comments on t h e p a s t and f u t u r e use o f a g g r e g a t e d a t a i n  29 A m e r i c a n e l e c t o r a l s t u d i e s s e e W a l t e r Dean Burnham, "The U n i t e d S t a t e s : The P o l i t i c s o f H e t e r o g e n e i t y , " i n Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Handbook, e d . R o s e , pp. 695-97.  CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION TO  THE  CONCEPTUAL  METHODOLOGICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF  This the  chapter  o u t l i n e s the  exploratory sketch  able  research  design.  o f the The  i n f e r e n c e s w h i c h can  levels  of  concerning  the  the  p a r t of the  into  and  a p p l i c a t i o n of these  to the  con-  about The  considers  data  a work-  chapter  swing p a t t e r n i n g .  a v a i l a b l e data,  analysis deals with  party's percentage support a d o p t s w i n g as o u r  available  indicator  electoral  between two  central  o f an  second  options  questions  can  say  for  i n f e r e n c e s about the  focus  time.  t h a t measures b a s e d on  operating  i n one  comparison across study  swing--the s h i f t successive  Following  swing p r o v i d e  u n i f o r m i t y and  election,  and  thus,  best  electoral  from t h i s , the b e s t  we  basis  p a t t e r n i n g of  the b e s t  in a  elections.  because i t i s the  aggregate's response to  forces o p e r a t i n g at a given  The  chapter  translating  us.  The  We  STUDY  drawn f r o m e v i d e n c e  s w i n g u n i f o r m i t y and  introduces  before  be  THE  involved i n  previous  first  siders  part  steps  AND  forces  grounds  for  elections.  begins  with  evidence  aggregates  ( c o n s t i t u e n c i e s and  uniform  as  the  account  for this  twentieth  t h a t the  voter  c o m m u n i t i e s ) became more  century  progressed.  i n c r e a s e i n u n i f o r m i t y by  30  swings o f  We  seek  examining  to changes  31  in  t h e way  the  aggregates.  simple can  truism  patterned  The s t u d i e s  that  be d i v i d e d  ents.  total  by c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f  of patterning  into within-groups  that  a r e b a s e d on t h e  swing v a r i a t i o n i n a given  As t h e d i a g r a m i n F i g u r e  knowledge but  s w i n g was  election  and b e t w e e n - g r o u p s  1 i n d i c a t e s , we  begin  with  the t o t a l magnitude o f swing v a r i a t i o n d e c l i n e d ,  w i t h no knowledge a b o u t c h a n g e s i n t h e r e l a t i v e  the w i t h i n -  compon-  and b e t w e e n - g r o u p s  components.  Within-Groups V a r i a t i o n at E i  T o t a l Swing V a r i a t i o n at E l e c t i o n 1 (E ) 1;  sizes of  Between-Groups Variation at Ei  +  (declines)  (?)  (?)  + Within-Groups V a r i a t i o n a t E„  T o t a l Swing V a r i a t i o n a t E~ FIGURE 1:  We  will  conduct three  socio-economic composition,  each t a k e t h e i r  in  as t h e p a t t e r n i n g words,  the within-  o f changes i n E l e c t o r a l com-  and r e g i o n  agent under  as t h e v a r i a b l e w h i c h  Each o f these analyses  unison,  rapidly  turn  or, i n other  "group."  separate analyses  and b e t w e e n - g r o u p s components.  petitiveness,  things:  n  Diagram d e p i c t i n g the e v o l u t i o n o f w i t h i n - and between-groups v a r i a n c e components.  the w i t h i n -  gation  Between-Groups Variation at E  should  turn  than the other.  may  investi-  defines  up one o f  and b e t w e e n - g r o u p s components  o r e i t h e r o f t h e s e components  will  may  decline  That i s , the p a t t e r n i n g  three decline  more  studies  will  tell  us w h i c h  replace  of the combinations  the question  shown i n F i g u r e  marks i n F i g u r e  1.  Wi thin-Groups Component (a)  Rate o f d e c l i n e  =  Rate o f d e c l i n e  Combination  (b)  Rate o f d e c l i n e  >  Rate o f d e c l i n e  Combination  (c)  Rate o f d e c l i n e  <  Rate o f d e c l i n e  Three p o s s i b l e t r e n d s i n the r e l a t i v e magnitude o f w i t h i n and between-groups components.  C o m b i n a t i o n , (b) w o u l d question  had  increased  Some o f t h e d e c l i n e attributed dimension. patterning  indicate that  i n importance  in total  Combination  or  that  (c) d e s c r i b e s  (a) w o u l d 5,  involves ships  and  developments,  i n d i c a t e no  t h e n we  will  in different elections.  a l l t e s t s the degree  uniformity occurs  o f swing  The  to multiple  of patterning  will  either  unpatterned. patterning of  relation-  techniques  range  regression,  but  h i n g e on  whether  among c a s e s s h a r i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  i n combination with v a r i a t i o n across  in characteristics.  this  conclude  then, the e x a m i n a t i o n o f swing  from s i m p l e a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e  be  change.  6 indicate that  t e s t s f o r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and c o m p a r i s o n  obtaining  swing.  i n d i c a t e a decrease i n  t h e d e c l i n i n g o v e r a l l v a r i a t i o n i n s w i n g was Essentially,  in  as a c o r r e l a t e o f  a r o u n d d i f f e r e n c e s on  (c) w o u l d  while combination  the v a r i a b l e i n  v a r i a t i o n i n swing c o u l d  to t i g h t e r patterning  t h e r e s u l t s i n C h a p t e r s 4,  (a)  Between-Groups Component  Combination  FIGURE 2:  If  2 should  cases  differing  33 The  proposed  analysis  raises  conceptualization of uniform arise  i f the  concern  mation about the  was  shifts,  d a t a and  thus  in this  and  Inferences from Swings to Uniform The Stokes-Katz The  All  other studies using electoral  voter  and  magnitude  aggregates.  Uniform Forces: Exchange  c o n c e p t u a l q u e s t i o n s t o be  relate  t o a model o f e l e c t o r a l  Donald  Stokes.^"  in original  infor-  i n swing.  t o draw i n f e r e n c e s a b o u t t h e d i r e c t i o n different  the  would  to present descriptive  s w i n g as a measure o f  o f i n f l u e n c e s o p e r a t i n g on  about  None o f t h e s e  degree o f v a r i a t i o n  a r i s e because of a concern, aggregate  swing.  simply  changing  three questions  f o r c e s w h i c h was  T h i s model has  o r '.adapted  discussed i n this  subsequently  form, i n a n a l y s e s  section  developed  by  been a p p l i e d ,  of e l e c t o r a l  shifts  2 in  a number o f n a t i o n s .  present  study  The  model c a n n o t  be  not  satisfied  But  arguments c o n c e r n i n g full  same g e n e r a l The national, of the  adjustments—is  f o r t h e e a r l y p e r i o d s w h i c h we  attention  the v a l i d i t y  of the  wish  t o examine.  Stokes  s i n c e our methodology r e s t s  model on  the  assumptions.  Stokes  model a s s i g n s v a r i a n c e i n e l e c t o r a l  r e g i o n a l (state or p r o v i n c i a l ) ,  influence. local  i n the  since a condition for i t s a p p l i c a t i o n — " r u n s "  o f e l e c t i o n s between c o n s t i t u e n c y b o u n d a r y  deserve  adopted  units  The  main a s s u m p t i o n  comprising  a larger  and  local  i s that uniform territory  swing  to  levels swings  (that i s , a  by  34 region or nation) operating forces  across  i n d i c a t e that uniform that territory.  are inferred  t o be s t r o n g  u n i f o r m i t y o f swing across variance is  electoral  forces are  So, f o r e x a m p l e , n a t i o n a l to the extent  the nation.  that there i s  A high  proportion of  i n swing i s a t t r i b u t e d t o r e g i o n a l f o r c e s i f t h e r e  h i g h w i t h i n - r e g i o n u n i f o r m i t y o f swing i n combination  marked b e t w e e n - r e g i o n d i f f e r e n c e s . t o be s t r o n g where t h e r e either nation or region.  is little  Local  with  f o r c e s a r e assumed  uniformity  I n t h e words o f  o f swing  across  Stokes:  I t can be seen i n t u i t i v e l y t h a t i f the f o r c e s moving the e l e c t o r a t e were p e r f e c t l y i d i o s y n c r a t i c t o i n d i v i d u a l c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , v a r i a t i o n s o f t u r n o u t o r p a r t y s t r e n g t h would show no more than a chance s i m i l a r i t y a c r o s s the c o n s t i t u e n c i e s o f a s t a t e o r r e g i o n o r a c r o s s the whole n a t i o n . D e t e c t i n g no more than a chance s i m i l a r i t y , the model would a t t r i b u t e a l l f o r c e s on e l e c t o r a l change t o the c o n s t i t u e n c y , l e v e l . But i f p o l i t i c s a t the s t a t e o r n a t i o n a l l e v e l d i d have common e f f e c t s a c r o s s a number o f c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , t u r n o u t o r p a r t y s t r e n g t h would show p a r a l l e l movements, and t h e model would a t t r i b u t e an i n f l u e n c e t o these h i g h e r l e v e l s o f p o l i t i c s a c c o r d i n g t o the degree o f observed s i m i l a r i t y . In t h i s manner t h e t o t a l average v a r i a n c e of t u r n o u t o r p a r t y s t r e n g t h can be p a r t i t i o n e d i n t o components due t o f o r c e s a c t i n g on the e l e c t o r a t e a t each o f s e v e r a l l e v e l s .  Stokes c o n f r o n t s inflated  estimates  incorrectly  t h e argument t h a t h i s model may p r o d u c e  o f t h e n a t i o n a l component's i m p o r t a n c e by  attributing  to higher  swing v a r i a t i o n which i s u n i f o r m by  state or d i s t r i c t  made a b o u t e s t i m a t e s locally  state  argument c o u l d be  of state e f f e c t s being district  i n f l a t e d by  swings.)  i f t h e number o f s t a t e s and d i s t r i c t s  i s l a r g e , ". . . i t w o u l d b e v e r y  average o f t h e vote  (or d i s t r i c t )  but which i s a c t u a l l y caused  (A p a r a l l e l  determined, but uniform,  to Stokes, nation  forces.  levels,  According  i n the  u n l i k e l y that the  over t h e whole c o u n t r y  w o u l d be d e f l e c t e d  by  the net e f f e c t  To  the e x t e n t t h a t  from one  o f what i s h a p p e n i n g state  and  area to the next,  district  national  c o u l d be  and  effects  are  sure t h a t  turnout or p a r t y  districts—and  the vote  level."  independent other.  division  i t s v a r i a t i o n was  f o r c e s which i n f l u e n c e  the s t a t e s  state  they t e n d t o c a n c e l each  " T h e r e f o r e , when t h e n a t i o n a l moved, we  at the  due  to  i n most o r a l l o f  n o t t o a sum  of state or d i s -  5 trict  forces." A more b a s i c p r o b l e m  criticisms districts  of the Stokes  i s a t t h e hub model.  are not i d e n t i c a l  on  Katz  ( s u c h as s o c i o - e c o n o m i c  should not  expect  And  districts to  which vary i n i n i t i a l  that  i f local  salient  initial  result  of uniform  swing  conditions,  differ  As on  Katz  puts  certain  across  s h o u l d be  e n t g r o u p s may  react  the d i r e c t i o n  as w e l l  i t , i f i t i s accepted  dimensions,  then  ".  we  i n uniform  t h a t the o p e r a t i v e f o r c e s are d i f f e r e n t  than uniform. units  Katz's  composition), then  that uniform forces w i l l  conversely, evidence  indicate  argues  electorally  conditions  swing.  of Richard  taken  rather  that  . . since  local differ-  i n o p p o s i t e ways t o t h e same s t i m u l u s , as t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e s h i f t  caused  7  by  a single  f a c t o r may  Katz's Figure  3.  vary across  p o i n t c a n be  seen  i n the diagram  This c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n i s modelled  stimulus-organism-response aggregates  districts."  paradigm.  scores to s i g n i f y  on  a  I t i s assumed  ( s u c h as c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ) c a n be  "resistance"  presented i n  differences  assigned in  simple that distinct  electorally  Strength of net partisan force  FIGURE 3:  Four h y p o t h e t i c a l constituencies with shading t o i n d i c a t e the degree o f r e s i s t a n c e to p a r t i s a n force  Electoral  swing  Swings r e s u l t i n g when u n i f o r m e l e c t o r a l f o r c e s o p e r a t e on hypothetical constituencies with varying resistance l e v e l s .  salient  initial  conditions.  gate's r e s i s t a n c e  (or o p p o s i t e l y ,  prevailing partisan levels  These  forces.  scores  indicate  i t s susceptibility) to  In t h e diagram,  these  a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e s h a d i n g o f t h e  constituencies, f o r example, It  w i t h those which  t o pro-government  same d i r e c t i o n and m a g n i t u d e , length  i n the l e f t  swings. signal  side  clearly,  i t could  necessarily  hypothetical  s h a d e d more  net partisan  forces  o f the diagram,  of non-uniform  be i l l u s t r a t e d  p r o d u c e d by u n i f o r m  that  This  assumption  And j u s t as  u n i f o r m swings  tions  that  forces  forces.  local  s h o u l d be a t t r i b u t e d t o h i g h e r l e v e l  t i o n of variance  swings  and  local  to national  a local  unit  match n a t i o n a l  c o v a r i a n c e between l o c a l  swings  and s t a t e  dif-  deflecKatz  Stokes  t o the degree  i n d i r e c t i o n and  and n a t i o n a l  on  f o r the a t t r i b u -  components.  i s nationalized swings  vote  forces.  set of conditions  K a t z , on t h e o t h e r hand, a r g u e s t h a t  which  state,  v o t e , b u t i t i s grounded  a b o u t t h e way i n w h i c h  proposes a l e s s s t r i n g e n t  its  for infer-  from these l e v e l s determine  district  assumptions  assumes t h a t  are not  model i s s i m i l a r t o t h e S t o k e s model i n i t s  around the normal ferent  of equal  do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y  forces.  about t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f n a t i o n a l ,  forces.  of the  cause d i f f e r e n t  K a t z o f f e r s an a l t e r n a t i v e model a s a b a s i s ences  heavily.  r e p r e s e n t e d by a r r o w s  C l e a r l y , t h e n , non-uniform swings the operation  resistance  a r e more r e s i s t a n t ( s a y ,  forces)  c a n r e a d i l y be s e e n t h a t  the aggre-  magnitude.  i t i s the degree o f (or state)  that  swings  should determine the importance a t t r i b u t e d t o the  38 higher level  forces.  Thus, i n the f o r c e s -may  Katz model, i t i s a c c e p t e d t h a t  have d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s on  If  local  and  of  elections  national  different local  swings covary c l o s e l y a c r o s s  ( i f , i n o t h e r words, t h e r e  relationship  the  between s w i n g s a t t h e  two  levels),  units.  a  i s a close  series  linear  then  s w i n g i s t a k e n t o be  d e t e r m i n e d by  Local  u n i t s may  n a t i o n a l i z e d whether t h e i r  are is  negatively the  or  equally  p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d to n a t i o n a l  maintenance o f  a consistent  which i s c r u c i a l .  And  need not  magnitude of  match t h e  relationship s w i n g s +10  t o be  national  forces  In t h e local  in  estimating  be  and  national  of  low  the  or  local  district  where, on  s w i n g s as  hypothetical  to E 6  which,  each time the no  +10  +5  state  period.  the  by  for  the  example, swings  in  of  +10  by response  covariation  crucial  factor  forces.  The  national  forces  districts,  l i n e a r equation  of national  a f f e c t e d by A's  swing  swing f o r  points  explained  d a t a and  District  covariation  nation  swings i s the  average across  a function  it  points.  variance an  shifts  shifts;  more a f f e c t e d  example diagrammed i n F i g u r e  B were b o t h s t r o n g l y Ei  district  importance of h i g h e r - o r d e r  a p o o r f i t between t h e ing  national  which s h i f t s  of  of  K a t z m o d e l , t h e n , the' c o n s i s t e n c y  in  proportion  the  i s assumed t o be  shift  pattern  forces.  magnitude o f c o n s t i t u e n c y  strong—a  t h a n one  to each n a t i o n a l  will  the  percentage points  percentage points  national  the  local  be  same  national  swings. 4,  there  expressIn  Districts  forces  swings c o r r e l a t e  is  during  the A  and the  negatively  FIGURE 4:  The Katz model: r e s u l t s showing c o r r e l a t i o n between n a t i o n a l vote movement and vote movement i n t h r e e h y p o t h e t i c a l d i s t r i c t s across s i x e l e c t i o n s .  40 with  the  tively,  national but  swings, w h i l e D i s t r i c t  i n both cases the  movements i n D i s t r i c t relate the  t o the  C,  on  results will  from d i s t r i c t s  clearly It  the  other  be  i s our  high  contention  problems a s s o c i a t e d  i s b a s e d on  these.  i f there  hand, do  are  The few  an  seem  to  average  national  cases  t h a t Katz f a i l s  w i t h the  not  Vote  Katz's o v e r a l l estimate  forces  like  correlate posi-  c o r r e l a t i o n i s strong.  n a t i o n a l movements.  importance of n a t i o n a l  B's  of  of  estimate  like  District  to solve  a l l of  C. the  Stokes v a r i a n c e a t t r i b u t i o n  g model. ated  with  tions is  K a t z has  Stokes's r e s t r i c t i v e  necessary  true  uniform  correctly identified  that  f o r the  uniform  forces  d i r e c t i o n but  It  cause swings which are  not  By  taking other  possi-  a model w h i c h  attri-  those swings which d i f f e r which are  in  a c t u a l l y produced  by  problem.  uni-  same f o r c e s . But  there  i s another s i d e t o the  form swings nor order  close  thetical assertion totally) about the  across  the  means t h a t p a r a l l e l territory.  c a s e s shown i n F i g u r e that  d e t e r m i n e d by  t h e s e two  I f we 4,  swings i n D i s t r i c t s  initial  Neither  c o v a r i a t i o n between l o c a l  s w i n g s necessarily  operating  in  condi-  forces.  direction.  butes to h i g h e r - l e v e l forces  the  may  associ-  assumptions concerning  i n t o account, Katz c o n s t r u c t s  m a g n i t u d e and  problems  a t t r i b u t i o n of uniform  i n m a g n i t u d e and  bilities  the  national  conditions  districts.  we  A and  forces  see  to the why.  B are  higher are hypoThe  equally  depends on  (or r e s i s t a n c e  Since  forces  return  can  and  (and  assumptions  levels) prevailing  these d i s t r i c t s  a l w a y s move  41 in  opposite directions,  assume t h a t tions.  they d i f f e r  of both,  another.  conclusion i s valid  i n terms o f s a l i e n t  I f they are s i m i l a r ,  the swings one  this  t h e n we  and  national  expect t h e i r  C o n v e r s e l y , i f we  had  movements were e x a c t l y  t h e same, we  t h a t t h e y were s i m i l a r  in initial  conclude  Katz  procedure results, istics  really  forces swings  though  teristics,  and  istics  and do  uniform As  forces  could  the o t h e r .  the His  the v a r i a t i o n  which  with opposite characterforces.  to these  thus unable  between t h e  to distinguish  In the  The  charac-  swing  first  c a s e we  case  oppo-  can c o n c l u d e  a r e o p e r a t i n g , w h i l e i n t h e s e c o n d we  to higher l e v e l  may  forces,  o f n a t i o n a l and  incorrectly  and may  state  thus  patterns of influence  swing  c a n o n l y be  what have b e e n t e r m e d  by  attribute  t o draw c o n c l u s i o n s  controlling  resistance  cannot.  exaggerate  from e v i d e n c e about  circumvented  that  influences.  problems which undermine attempts  about  in  assured  side of  t o t h e same n a t i o n a l  the Katz procedure  the importance The  whose v o t e  t h e c a s e where d i s t r i c t s w i t h s i m i l a r c h a r a c t e r -  forces  variation  parallel  i s t h a t t h e model i s b l i n d  t h e same.  a result,  to  forces.  where d i s t r i c t s w i t h o p p o s i t e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s sitely,  determine  c o n d i t i o n s b e f o r e we  f o r example, when d i s t r i c t s oppositely  do  districts  f o r p r o b l e m s on one  to national  condi-  w o u l d h a v e t o be  compounds p r o b l e m s on  attributes  respond  problem  initial  t h a t t h e y were a f f e c t e d by t h e same  Thus, i n c o r r e c t i n g coin,  two  o n l y i f we  levels.  p a t t e r n s of  for differences In  effect,  c o n t r o l s would i n v o l v e w e i g h t i n g they the  occurred situation  i n more o r as  o p e r a t i o n would areas  so  t h a t we  t o magnitude o f  i t was "grey" could  resistant  portrayed  areas.  o r homogenize t h e infer  the  thing other  t h a n an  Stipulation  of s a l i e n t  directly  In terms the  experimental initial  disadvantage associated with have t o p r e c e d e t h e  b a s i s w o u l d be  conditions  (that i s , s t i p u the  r e s i s t a n c e con-  p a r t i s a n advantage  particular  control operation.  Obviously  researcher  quickly  confronted  differences order  f u r t h e r be i f we  t o draw s u c h c o n c l u s i o n s , i n the  o r have some b a s i s  information, party  out  s u c h as  data.  that a tautology  one  data  on  usually  type  suggested.  a v a i l a b l e t o the  But,  f o r c e s were  has  researcher  constituency  t o assume would  equal. equal  possess  differences in  a l a s , such i n f o r m a t i o n  electoral  In  constituencies,  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n p a t t e r n s , which would support  o f the  about  w o u l d have t o know a b o u t  f o r c e s , one  I d e a l l y , the  is  from aggregate data.  f o r assuming t h a t these  levels.  normally  aggregate v o t i n g  forces a p p l i e d to d i f f e r e n t  t o know t h e m a g n i t u d e o f  resistance  these  a t t e m p t t o draw c o n c l u s i o n s  in resistance levels  differences  But  pointed  or  c o n d i t i o n s , would  available  using  any-  difficult.  r e q u i r e i n f o r m a t i o n which i s not  i t should  swing  c o n t r o l s on  antecedent steps  And  shaded  from magnitude o f  a p p l i c a t i o n of these  measurement o f t h e n e t  to the  of  control  differently  o f d e t e r m i n a n t s o f d i f f e r e n c e s on  tinuum) , and  3,  i n Figure  to whether  forces.  Unfortunately,  lation  less  swings a c c o r d i n g  historian.  controls is  not  43 A f i r s t response t o these problems i s embodied i n the design of our study. an attempt  The a n a l y s i s of p a t t e r n i n g r e p r e s e n t s  t o explore three f a c t o r s which may  differences i n resistance levels. e l e c t o r a l l o c a l i s m may  determine  We have acknowledged t h a t  have been supplanted by a s i t u a t i o n  where swings were p a t t e r n e d by composition or o t h e r dimens i o n s , and we have argued t h a t p a t t e r n i n g by composition or e l e c t o r a l s i t u a t i o n would r e p r e s e n t a type of p r o v i n c i a l i z a t i o n of f o r c e s . Our second response must be to a d j u s t n o t i o n s about meaning of i n c r e a s e d u n i f o r m i t y of swing  ( e i t h e r across the  p r o v i n c e , across r e g i o n s , or across cases w i t h s i m i l a r acteristics) .  the  In l i g h t of what has been argued,  char-  i t must  now  be noted t h a t i n c r e a s e d u n i f o r m i t y r e q u i r e s the j o i n t o c c u r rence of two d e v e l o p m e n t s — i n c r e a s e d levels  homogeneity of r e s i s t a n c e  (or maintenance of c o n s i s t e n t l y h i g h l e v e l s ) ,  i n c r e a s e d u n i f o r m i t y of e l e c t o r a l f o r c e s .  and  Thus, t o d e a l w i t h  an example which assumes no i n c r e a s e i n p a t t e r n i n g , the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of an i n c r e a s e i n o v e r a l l swing u n i f o r m i t y would have to note t h a t developments are probably l i k e p o r t r a y e d i n F i g u r e 5.  The probable s i t u a t i o n i n pre-modern  e l e c t i o n s f i n d s non-uniform tance l e v e l s combining  f o r c e s and non-homogeneous r e s i s -  t o produce  non-uniform  swings.  other p o s s i b l e combinations which would produce swings—non-uniform  those  The  non-uniform  f o r c e s with homogeneous r e s i s t a n c e  or uniform f o r c e s w i t h non-homogeneous r e s i s t a n c e  levels,  levels—  44 PROBABLE PRE-MODERN SITUATION INVOLVING NON-UNIFORM SWING  Forces  FIGURE 5:  Resistance Levels  Swings  PROBABLE MODERN SITUATION INVOLVING RELATIVELY UNIFORM SWING Forces  Resistance Levels  Swings  Diagram showing t h e p r o b a b l e e v o l u t i o n o f e l e c t o r a l f o r c e s and-resistance l e v e l s i n v o l v e d i n p r o d u c i n g i n c r e a s e d swing uniformity.  would seem t o be l e s s l i k e l y given what we suspect modern c o n d i t i o n s .  about pre-  The probable s i t u a t i o n i n modern e l e c t i o n s  i n v o l v e s r e l a t i v e l y uniform f o r c e s and r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous r e s i s t a n c e l e v e l s combining t o produce q u i t e uniform swings. The  other p o s s i b i l i t y h e r e — t h a t  non-uniform f o r c e s and non-  homogeneous r e s i s t a n c e l e v e l s j u s t happen t o combine i n a way  which produces uniform swings—seems t o t a l l y u n l i k e l y . Acceptance o f the i d e a t h a t i n c r e a s e d  uniformity of  f o r c e s and i n c r e a s e d homogeneity o f r e s i s t a n c e l e v e l s must operate j o i n t l y t o produce a t r e n d t o swing u n i f o r m i t y ,  does  not n e c e s s i t a t e major adjustment i n our t h i n k i n g about the  45 effects  of modernization.  closely  related  of  forces  which  relates  tors  of  localism. were ing  We  totally  do  relevant assert  viewed  by  not  argue by  may  should  we  stable  that  predic-  in  decid-  electorally do,  however,  communications  diverse  to which  of  electorates  We  particularly  as  Homogeneity  Indeed,  to exist.  homogenized  stimuli  increase  local  acknowledge  and  Uniformity  diminuition  modernization.  the extent  issues  with  scattered  continue  have  increasing  increase  that  patterning,  political  should  to parallelism of  should  modernization,  development, province  and  differences  that  coin.  become more p r o v i n c i a l i z e d .  homogenized  t o examine  represent  application of  e l e c t i o n , and  levels relates  response,  developments  of the modernization  t o one  campaigns  resistance  two  to the p a r a l l e l  are s p e c i f i c  election of  sides  The  parts  local  from p r o v i n c i a l , rather  of  the  electorates than  local,  perspectives. The tion  of a  possibility true  hypothesis  something which to  uniformity  discernible tions we  together.  trend  e f f e c t on  fairly Thus,  toral  sociology  about  changes  I errors  or, that  happened)  or a  about the  c a n be  of type  does  (those  i s , failure  remain  since  t o homogeneity  swing  uniformity.  impact of modernization confident  that  involving  could But  i n the uniformity  and  a  occur i f our  trend with  show up  patterning  will  on in  the  no  assump-  are reasonable,  the developments  should  identify  either  the e f f e c t s of modernization of the province  to  rejec-  then  occur elec-  evidence  of e l e c t o r a l  46 swing.  We  must now  t u r n t o an  w h i c h c o n c e r n t h e way Conceptualizing Swing: Percentage Proportionate  on  of versus  electoral  p r e m i s e t h a t s w i n g s i n two when t h e  questions  i n which swing i s measured.  Uniformity Point Measures  Most r e s e a r c h  examination of  s w i n g has  been b a s e d on  o r more c o n s t i t u e n c i e s a r e  percentage p o i n t s h i f t s  i n support  the uniform  f o r the p a r t y  (or  9  parties) this  i n question  a s s u m p t i o n has  are  equal.  However, t h e  come u n d e r c o n s i d e r a b l e  particularly  from B r i t i s h  noted a t the  outset  I t should  arguments a r e n o t  with  the  with  a l t e r n a t i v e grounds f o r i n f e r e n c e s  measurement o f s w i n g u n i f o r m i t y p e r  swing t o c o n c l u s i o n s  be  concerned  se, but  rather  from evidence  about the magnitude o f  of  questioning,  psephologists."*"^  t h a t the  validity  about  electoral  influences. The one  that  several  first  point  raised in this  swings t e l l  us  only  about the  e l e c t o r a t e and  well  of voters  as m i g r a t i o n s  determine s h i f t s direction  components had equal  net  f o r c e s which determine e l e c t o r a l  t h e make-up o f t h e  equal  literature  the  swings are  ever  truly  of  obvious the  Changes i n  changes i n t u r n o u t ,  b a c k and  magnitude o n l y same n e t  result  shifts.  signify  effect, uniform.  as  f o r t h between p a r t i e s ,  i n a g g r e g a t e results."'""'' and  i s the  Since  swings  that these  of various  i t i s unlikely that  two  47 The serious of  so l o n g  uniform  party's in  problems  section  tell  we  electoral  can  anything  ( i f we  changes A  swing of  major  swing  we  can only  up i n o n e a r e a of the  i s stronger.  had i n producing  cannot  migrations  of the electorate,  these  shifts.  point  measure o f  a proportionate  basis  a n d down  previous  We  voter  t o the percentage that  speak  the n e t pro-government  the r o l e s which  a more v a l i d  are not too  I f t h e government  that  area  i n t h e argument  provides  that  i n the composition  challenge  h a s come  truism  the point  conclude  more a b o u t  i n turnout  goes  ignore  i n the f i r s t  among p a r t i e s , c h a n g e s or  this  influences.  o f the vote  f o r t h e moment)  operating  from  as i t i s acknowledged  percentage  another  force  net  stemming  f o r judgements  measure about  12 electoral the it  influences.  characteristics differs 1  Table  from  losses  words,  X's s h a r e  of i t s first  as p r o p o r t i o n s  these  rows  to successively  seen  derived gain>"  i f we  shifts  the corollary treat  vote  different  I t c a n be  a s we  move  totals.  of Party  as  point per-  or, i n other  a t riski','  at risk  how  row i n  percentage  seen  down t h e  I t can also  Y's s w i n g s i s  as p r o p o r t i o n s  o r t h a t i s , as a p e r c e n t a g e  a n d show  are expressed  increase  measure  Y's g a i n s  Equal  to elucidate  Each  for a  (Ei) support  o f i t s "vote  lower  measure.  results  o f the vote  helps  measure,  election.  election  proportionate  that  point  hypothetical  that  be  example  of a proportionate  i n a two-party  i n Party  centages  simple  the percentage  represents  constituency  A  o f t h e (100%  o f i t s "vote minus  Y's  to Ei  TABLE 1:  A COMPARISON OF PROPORTIONATE AND PERCENTAGE POINT MEASURES OF SWING. HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS FOR A TWO-PARTY CONTEST IN TEN CONSTITUENCIES, SHOWING EQUAL PERCENTAGE POINT SHIFTS FROM DIFFERENT BASE SUPPORT POSITIONS EXPRESSED PROPORTIONATELY PARTY X  Constituency  Ei Support  Percentage P o i n t Swing E;i-E 2  PARTY Y Swing as a Percentage o f X's Vote a t R i s k  Ei Support  Percentage P o i n t Swing Ei-E 2  Swing as a Percentage o f Y's Vote t o Gain  CI  100  -10  -10.0  0  +10  +10.0  C2  90  -10  -11.1  10  +10  +11.1  C3  80  -10  -12.5  20  +10  +12.5  C4  70  -10  -14.3  30  +10  +14.3  C5  60  -10  -16.7  40  +10  +16.7  C6  50  -10  -20.0  50  +10  +20.0  C7  40  -10  -25.0  60  +10  +25.0  C8  30  -10  -33.3  70  +10  +33.3  C9  20  -10  -50.0  80  +10  +50.0  CIO  10  -10  -100.0  90  +10  +100.0  49 support  level)  The can be  remainder.  argument i n d e f e n c e  expressed  o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure  i n v a r i o u s ways.  I t can  be  pointed  out,  f o r example, t h a t what happens t o P a r t y X i n C o n s t i t u e n c y (C2)  i s very d i f f e r e n t ,  and  much l e s s  happens t o i t i n C o n s t i t u e n c y measure seems t o e x p r e s s the net  result  the  If  f o r c e s equal to those  in seriousness—  90%.  i s equivalent to  supporters, while  i n two  of i t s Ei  o p e r a t i n g i n C9  had  operated  in  latter  p e r s p e c t i v e the  i n C2.  In t h e  former  o u t o f two  while one  i n C2,  p e o p l e who  d i d not  support  i n C9  riding,  the  tested and  t o be  level  drawn f r o m  relationships  t h e i r base d a t a on  only  non-supporters.  T h e r e i s a c o n v e r g e n c e between t h e s e implication  of  the p a r t y a t E i ,  the gains are e q u i v a l e n t to c o n v e r s i o n of  out of nine E i  x  gains  p r o - P a r t y Y f o r c e s cause gains e q u i v a l e n t t o c o n v e r s i o n one  C2,  or, that i s , one-half of i t s E  From P a r t y Y's  a r e more p r o n o u n c e d t h a n  in  supporters.  p o i n t swing a g a i n s t P a r t y X i n the  r i d i n g w o u l d have b e e n 45% of  what  proportionate  differences  i s e q u i v a l e n t t o one  the percentage  support  The  i n n i n e o f i t s E\  C9  then  these  (C9).  o f a n t i - P a r t y X f o r c e s i n C2  t h e d e f e c t i o n o f one loss  9  s e r i o u s , than  2  levels  a r g u m e n t s and  the  r e s u l t s w h i c h o b t a i n e d when  between p a r t i e s ' of support  percentage  (Ej s u p p o r t ) .  a l l swings around S o c i a l C r e d i t  we  p o i n t swings Constituency  and  the  CCF-NDP 13  in  s i x e l e c t i o n s between 1953  constituency  swing t o o r from  and  1972  were a n a l y z e d .  one  of these p a r t i e s  i n one  Each of  50  t h e e l e c t i o n s was of  522  swing  c a s e s was and  E  x  treated  as a c a s e .  assembled.  s u p p o r t was  The  -.42.  I n t h i s way  overall Parties  are  point losses  where t h e i r  support  election  high, of  and  more l i k e l y  support  i s low.  starts One  quite  r e a s o n why  limits;  level  level  to lose percentage  o f base  are measuring  that  i s , no  than  to p o t e n t i a l  p a r t y can  percentage  those w i t h i n L t h e grasp  F o r example, t h e p e r c e n t a g e a c h i e v e d by where i t s E made a b o u t  a p a r t y i n one x  support  t h e way  i m p r o v e on  a level  constrained  the s i z e of percentage port  levels.  low  have an e a s i e r  10%  than  from  30%  The  to be  converse  60% matched  p o i n t can  of the  spectrum.  "empirical'' l i m i t s point shifts  x  be  p o i n t losses are d i f f e r e n t i a l l y  from  may  also  different  time a c h i e v i n g a percentage  a party with E  are  support.  constrain base  F o r example, t h e p a r t y w i t h E i s u p p o r t o f  may  sup-  The  levels  Ei  c o n s t i t u e n c y , cannot  i s above 70%.  termed  with  p o i n t gains which are s m a l l e r  point shift  a t t h e o p p o s i t e end  What c a n be  be  an E{  of zero.  of p a r t i e s with  percentage  oper-  change w i t h i n a r a n g e  o r do w o r s e t h a n  level  p o i n t s where  should  consequence i s t h a t p a r t i e s w i t h h i g h Ej support limited  base  support.  regression e f f e c t s operate  We  o f 100%  of the p a i r i s  I n o t h e r words, r e g r e s s i o n e f f e c t s  a high  apparent.  absolute port  from  in ridings  t o a c h i e v e g a i n s where t h e i r  a t e , w i t h a p a r t y more l i k e l y it  between  significantly  to s u f f e r percentage first  sample  correlation  more l i k e l y  i n the  a  s u p p o r t o f 80%.  The  sup20%  point gain of party i n the  51 latter  s i t u a t i o n w o u l d p r o b a b l y be more l i k e l y  to lose  port.  Underlying this  that,  argument i s t h e p r e m i s e  p a r t y ' s p e r s p e c t i v e , the p r e v i o u s l y non-supportive of the e l e c t o r a t e  (100%  minus i t s Ei  s t r a t a which are s u c c e s s i v e l y Ei  support base comprises  prone t o d e f e c t i o n . ably  The  less  support)  sup-  from  a  portion  comprises  "conquerable^"  while  the  s t r a t a which are s u c c e s s i v e l y party with support of  80%  has  less prob-  c a p t u r e d most o f t h e e l e c t o r a t e w h i c h i s r e m o t e l y  inclined  to support  party with  i t (the conquerable  s u p p o r t o f 20%  sympathetic  c a n more e a s i l y  from  likely  than  the  loss  from  d e s e r t i o n by  defection-prone  It  noted  pursued  s h o u l d be  that  i n what m i g h t be  From  an E j s u p p o r t  p r o b a b l y means d e f e c t i o n o f b e d r o c k  the  g a i n because  s t r a t a have n o t y e t b e e n c o n v e r t e d .  opposite perspective, a loss  less  strata), while  level  s u p p o r t e r s , and  80% w h i c h w o u l d  the of  20%  i s thus  involve  strata. the o p p o s i t e l o g i c  labelled  the  "rich  i s sometimes  get r i c h e r "  argu-  14 ment.  Basically  this  i s t h e argument t h a t  a strong  support  base p r o v i d e s a c o n t e x t o r c l i m a t e which i s f a v o u r a b l e t o further  gains.  T h i s argument m i g h t be  especially within certain 20%  t o 50%  support  r a n g e ) where t h e  argument m i g h t n e u t r a l i z e  strata  argument.  those  to  apply  (say p e r h a p s  the  i n the r i c h  get  introduced i n the  A check o f the p l o t o f p o i n t s a s s o c i a t e d  the swing-base support  however, t h a t  ranges  forces envisaged  richer  with  expected  correlation  analysis  indicates,  t h e n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between E  z  support  52 and  percentage  extreme  p o i n t swing  (low o r h i g h )  46-45% r a n g e  of f i r s t  watershed—when  o b t a i n s e v e n when c a s e s  E i support election  levels  support  t h e major p a r t i e s  b a s e b e l o w 40% t h e y were l i k e l y s u p p o r t ; when t h e y t h e y were l i k e l y Use ize  (on t h e a v e r a g e )  from  From any l e v e l  suffer  losses  an E i s u p p o r t  to lose  from  of f i r s t  to gain  s u p p o r t h i g h e r t h a n 45% support.  o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure o f s w i n g  problem.  The  seems t o mark t h e  (on t h e a v e r a g e )  some o f t h e p r o b l e m s stemming  can  a r e removed.  started  started with E i  involving  would  the absolute  election  support  neutrallimits  a party  a m o u n t i n g t o between z e r o and 10 0% o f t h a t  s u p p o r t , o r a c h i e v e g a i n s e q u i v a l e n t t o between z e r o and 100% of  the p r e v i o u s l y non-supportive  effects  electorate.  o f what were t e r m e d e m p i r i c a l  limits  But w h i l e t h e on g r o w t h o r  w a s t a g e o f s u p p o r t may be a m e l i o r a t e d by a p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure, t h e y w i l l  n o t be n e u t r a l i z e d .  earlier  second  about  this  The a r g u m e n t s  type o f c o n s t r a i n t  can apply  as w e l l where t h e p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure i s u s e d . a party w i l l tionate quered In tionate ency  have an e a s i e r  time  g a i n when i t s E i s u p p o r t strata spite  are r e l a t i v e l y  data i n d i c a t e  between t h e two. constituency  swing  that  propor-  low, and t h e u n c o n -  susceptible to conversion.  of the d i f f e r e n t  and p e r c e n t a g e  just  F o r example,  achieving a certain i s very  made  underpinnings  p o i n t measures, t e s t s  of the proporusing  there i s l i t t l e p r a c t i c a l  We c a l c u l a t e d  constitudifference  a p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure o f  w h i c h was b a s e d  on t h e l o g i c u n d e r l y i n g  53  Table the  1.  P o s i t i v e s w i n g s were t r e a t e d as a p r o p o r t i o n o f  party's  negative vote  vote  t o gain  s w i n g s were t r e a t e d as a p r o p o r t i o n ( i t s Ei  at risk  portionate  support).  Then we c o r r e l a t e d t h e p r o -  Separate analyses  throughout the century  which o b t a i n e d  swings o f t h e  of results  were c o n d u c t e d .  from e l e c -  The c o e f f i c i e n t s  were a l w a y s s t r o n g l y p o s i t i v e — o n t h e a v e r a g e  t h e i r m a g n i t u d e was i n t h e .90 r a n g e .  Relatively large  p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t swings t r a n s l a t e t o r e l a t i v e l y portionate  and p r o p o r t i o n a t e  primarily  analysis w i l l  and  the results w i l l  be r e p l i c a t e d  But t h e r e  b a s e d on d i f f e r e n t  was d e c i d e d  t o apply  o f these  whether they party's  i s no r e a s o n  to  m e a s u r e s wouGL'd y i e l d  o f base levels  relasupport, i n the  t o uncover c o r r e l a t e s o f swing.  c o n t r o l s i s t o weight swings a c c o r d i n g t o  are larger or smaller  Ej support  level  c o n t r o l s on E i s u p p o r t  parts o f the a n a l y s i s designed effect  measures  of a strong negative  t i o n s h i p between s w i n g a n d t h e p a r t y ' s  The  Where p o s s i b l e ,  conclusions.  In r e s p o n s e t o t h e e v i d e n c e  it  percentage  using proportionate  be compared.  that analyses  different  pro-  measures l e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o r e l y  on t h e p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t m e a s u r e .  our  believe  large  s w i n g s and so o n .  E v i d e n c e o f a s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n between point  while  of the party's  and p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t c o n s t i t u e n c y  government p a r t y . tions  (100% minus i t s E i s u p p o r t ) ,  than expected  i n the constituency,  r e l a t i o n s h i p between E i s u p p o r t  given the  and t h e p r e v a i l i n g  and s w i n g .  We c a n i l l u s t r a t e  54 with the a i d of the h y p o t h e t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n l i n e shown i n Figure  6.  This l i n e describes  the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a  p a r t y ' s percentage p o i n t swings i n one support l e v e l s .  The  between a c t u a l and and  e l e c t i o n and  v e r t i c a l l i n e s show the  i t s Ei  difference  expected swings i n t h r e e  constituencies  thus i n d i c a t e the degree to which a swing i s s t r o n g e r  weaker than was  expected on the b a s i s of E i support  By c o n t r o l l i n g f o r E i support, we e f f o r t s on adjusted  focus our  or  levels.  explanatory  swings or, i n other words, on swing above  or below what i s expected given the way  E i support c o n s t r a i n s .  15 swing.  And  we  remove the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t an observed  r e l a t i o n s h i p between swing and be the spurious  an explanatory  v a r i a b l e could  r e s u l t of i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between swing,  E i support l e v e l s , and  the explanatory  variable.  Comparison of Swings Where There is Constituency Variation in the Presence of Minor Parties on the Ballot  Throughout the a n a l y s i s we two  major p a r t i e s .  We  d e a l w i t h swings around  examine L i b e r a l and  i n the 1903-1928 p e r i o d , L i b e r a l and 1941 and  p e r i o d , C o a l i t i o n and S o c i a l C r e d i t and  fact that t h i r d  swings 1933-  swings i n the 1941-1952 p e r i o d , 1952-1975 p e r i o d .  studied.  (and a d d i t i o n a l ) p a r t i e s g e n e r a l l y  have an i n c o n s i s t e n t presence across certain d i f f i c u l t i e s .  swings i n the  CCF-NDP swings i n the  T h i r d p a r t y swings are not The  CCF  CCF  Conservative  the  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s leads  In most of the e l e c t i o n s s t u d i e d ,  to  55  +20%'  100% E l e c t i o n 1 Support L e v e l  FIGURE 6:  The e f f e c t o f c o n t r o l l i n g f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n E i support l e v e l . H y p o t h e t i c a l r e s u l t s f o r t h r e e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s showing a c t u a l percentage p o i n t swings i n a p a r t y ' s v o t e , and swings expected g i v e n the p a r t y ' s E i support i n the c o n s t i t u e n c y .  56 t h e r e was  substantial variation  o f m i n o r p a r t i e s on variation  i n the  in different  by  study p a r t y Here, w i t h culties  ballot.  this  the  In the  situation will  focus  on  encountered  analyst's best world,  i n both e l e c t i o n s . comparing  illustrated  Election  One  familiar  featured Instead,  Two  to those  congruent the  who  systems. diffi-  compared  contestant  researcher  i s apt  constituencies like  to the  7.  ONE Slate:  CONSTITUENCY Election  One  TWO Slate:  Governing p a r t y & main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y  + Slate:  Governing p a r t y & major o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y  It  ballots  difficulties  s w i n g w o u l d be  4+ Election  The  voters  form.  Governing p a r t y , main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y & two minor p a r t i e s  FIGURE; 7:  words,  a result,  parliamentary  swings a c r o s s  i n Figure  ..: CONSTITUENCY  be  i n compounded  slates  two  i n other  s w i n g s between e l e c t i o n s , t h e  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s which  himself  As  sets of party options.  across  find  T h e r e was,  number  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s have u s u a l l y r e s p o n d e d t o  voting i n multi-party  are  r i d i n g s i n the  "pattern of contest.""^  containing different presented  the  across  Election  Two  Slate:  Governing p a r t y , main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y & t h r e e minor p a r t i e s  Two h y p o t h e t i c a l c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w i t h d i f f e r e n t e l e c t i o n - t o e l e c t i o n contest patterns.  i s impossible  these opposite  t o p r e d i c t p r e c i s e l y what t h e  movements o f c o n t e s t a n t  effects  slates w i l l  of  mean,  57 although  we  would expect the  parties  to  natives  increase.  f a r e worse i n C o n s t i t u e n c y We  can  confounds comparison of  be  several junctures  the  contest  trends with  assured  trend  each r i d i n g  for  after  type  contest  Data  Related  the  which o b t a i n  we  will  are not  explanatory  of  whether to  do  want t o  be  the  spurious  variable  number o f  control variable will  be  and  candidates. coded  for  s l a t e s i n both  swing under a n a l y s i s .  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s f e a t u r i n g government contests  Thus, party  i n both e l e c t i o n s of  d i s t i n g u i s h e d from c o n s t i t u e n c i e s f e a t u r i n g i n the  first  election  and  a  three-party  second.  s e c t i o n , we  explanatory  research.  effects  Problems  In t h i s ing  And  analysis  have a n y t h i n g  consideration of contestant  of contest  i n the  alter-  variation  i n t o the  want t o see  patterns  between t h e  main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y be  kind of  monitor the  will  e l e c t i o n s i n v o l v e d i n the  the p a i r w i l l this  can  We  contest  pattern  example, t h o s e  versus  introduced  a c r o s s " c o n s t i t u e n c i e s i n the  contest  opposition  2 where v o t e r s '  that this  to swing u n i f o r m i t y .  of a connection  The  of the  factor.  t h a t swing p a t t e r n s  differences  be  so t h a t we  t o more u n i f o r m  the  result  pattern  sure  main  swings.  A control variable will at  government and  Our  o u t l i n e the  final  steps  in  framework i n t o a w o r k a b l e d e s i g n  main t a s k  d e r i v i n g maximum v a l u e  i s to consider  from the  convertfor  strategies for  a v a i l a b l e data.  Empirical  58  studies  seldom f i n d  the r e a l world  the types of a n a l y s i s o u t l i n e d study and  i s no  these  exception.  limit  investigation  The  completely  i n r e s e a r c h d e s i g n s , and  d a t a do have c e r t a i n  our a b i l i t y  t o c a r r y out  as e n v i s a g e d .  t h a t the a v a i l a b l e  untapped r e s o u r c e political  data c o n s t i t u t e  history,  use  a rich  f o r e x p l o r a t i o n of B r i t i s h and  that,  constituency level  wish  to  of  the  related  sight and  of  the  virtually  Columbia's  f o r t h e most p a r t ,  a r e amenable t o t h e a n a l y s e s we We  a l l facets  us t o l o s e  this  shortcomings,  A catalogue of data  p r o b l e m s s h o u l d n o t , however, c a u s e fact  receptive to  these  data  undertake.  d a t a t o compare s w i n g s  the breadth of the p r o v i n c e i n e l e c t i o n s  throughout  across  the  cen-  17 tury.  Twenty-two p r o v i n c i a l  between 19 03, when p a r t i e s elections,  and  first  competed  occurred  in provincial  Fifteen  of the  21 p o s s i b l e  inter-  e l e c t i o n .swings a r e a n a l y z e d .  Table  2 specifies  which  election pairs  1975.  general elections  are i n c l u d e d or excluded,  and  indicates  that  c o n s t i t u e n c y b o u n d a r y c h a n g e s a r e t h e main r e a s o n why 18  six  p a i r s have t o be  also  be n o t e d and  that  two  excluded  that  resisted.  elections  so we  from  Since i t i s  a l l historical  of dropping  are l e f t  affected  (1933-37 extremely  periods  these e l e c t i o n s  F o r t u n a t e l y , the adjustments  redistributions  cies,  I t should  of the p a i r s which are i n c l u d e d  examined, the e x p e d i e n t  two  analysis.  1953-56) f l a n k b o u n d a r y c h a n g e s .  important  be  from  limited  w i t h ample c a s e s  be had  to  i n v o l v e d i n these  numbers o f c o n s t i t u e n for analysis  after  59  TABLE 2:  Election  SWINGS TO BE ANALYZED USING CONSTITUENCY LEVEL DATA. ELECTION PAIRS, 1903-1975, SHOWING THOSE PAIRS INCLUDED OR EXCLUDED FROM ANALYSIS WITH REASONS FOR EXCLUSION Pairs  Excluded/ Included  Reason f o r E x c l u s i o n  1903-1907  Included  1907-1909  Included  1909-1912  Excluded  Dearth o f L i b e r a l c a n d i d a t e s , h i g h number o f a c c l a m a t i o n s .  1912-1916  Excluded  Redistribution,  1915.  1916-1920  Included  1920-1924  Excluded  Redistribution,  1923.  1924-1928  Included  1928-1933  Excluded  Redistribution,  1932.  1933-1937  Included*  1937-1941  Excluded  Redistribution,  1938  1941-1945  Included  1945-1949  Included  1949-1952  Included  1952-1953  Included  1953-1956  Included*  1956-1960  Included  1960-1963  Included  1963-1966  Excluded  Redistribution,  1966.  1966-1969  Included  1969-1972  Included  1972-1975  Included  * C e r t a i n cases w i l l be excluded from the a n a l y s i s o f the 1933-1937 and 1953-1956 swings due t o c o n s t i t u e n c y boundary changes. See f o o t n o t e 19 to t e x t .  60  r i d i n g s w h i c h were a f f e c t e d The  c o n s t i t u e n c y d a t a were t r a n s f o r m e d  readable lated.  by t h e c h a n g e s were  f o r m and v o t e p e r c e n t a g e s  dropped.  into  machine-  f o r p a r t i e s were  calcu-  Then, a f t e r t h e d a t a were o r g a n i z e d i n a f i l e  allowed comparison elections,  o f each  the percentage  constituency's vote  19  which  i n successive  p o i n t and p r o p o r t i o n a t e s w i n g s o f 20  t h e government a n d m a j o r o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s were The of  second  data s e t contains r e s u l t s  nonmetropolitan  cities, 21  between 1933 and 1972. red  tional  by  area.  We u n d e r t a k e  t h e impact  u n i f o r m i t y and p a t t e r n i n g .  the nonmetropolitan  Although  isolated,  most have h a d t h e i r  of their  insights  about drawing  an a t t e m p t  communities  isolation  shifts  of these  diminished  t h e censuses  quite  substan-  Intensive inves-  should y i e l d  important  developments.  t h e sample o f n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n  f o r which census  we  affected  remain  communities,  was made t o a c h i e v e : t h e g o a l s n o t e d  (1) C o m m u n i t i e s of  electoral  t h e impact  of modernization  w h i c h we a r e s o  by t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y d e v e l o p m e n t s .  tigation  In  many h i n t e r l a n d  test  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  t h e communications developments about  tially  these a d d i -  a r e a t o have been most  curious.  be r e f e r -  i n additional  a r e a p r o v i d e s an i d e a l  f o r p r o p o s i t i o n s about  on e l e c t o r a l expect  hinterland  s e t , i s used  sample  i n elections  T h i s data s e t , which w i l l  s t u d i e s because t h i s  situation  f o ra large  towns, and v i l l a g e s  t o a s t h e community d a t a  analysis of the  computed.  below:  data are a v a i l a b l e  i n any  between 1941 a n d 1971 s h o u l d be i n c l u d e d  61  in  order  the (2) As  to allow  the  fullest  p o s s i b l e i n v e s t i g a t i o n of  socio-economic c o r r e l a t e s of  swings i n Chapter  many a d d i t i o n a l m a j o r p o p u l a t i o n  should  be  order  of  remoteness from  centres  should  with  enough c o m m u n i t i e s  be  in  1960  election.  constituency  was  geographical  to  this  places  10-25  The as  i n the  sample  polling  communities  number t o v a r y  as  form the  stations per  according  constituency  community  of a l l nonmetropolitan The  places  chosen  and  to  its  and  most p l a c e s w h i c h had  for  the  sample i n c l u d e d  communities w i t h  close polling  i n c l u d e d a l l census r e p o r t i n g  ( i n o t h e r words, i n c o r p o r a t e d )  cities,  more t h a n 500  towns and  villages,  voters registered  22 1960  was  diversity.  In i t s f i n a l one-half  A t a r g e t of  set, with  number o f p o l l i n g  stations.  from each  described  sampling w i t h i n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s .  f r o m c o m m u n i t i e s w h i c h were l i s t e d  to  taken  be  practical constraints.  chosen  the  the  e x p l o r a t i o n of u n i f o r m i t y w i t h i n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s .  s a m p l i n g s t r a t e g y w h i c h emerged c a n  the  included i n  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s should  T h e s e g o a l s were w e i g h e d a g a i n s t  stratified  be  metropoli-  e x p l o r a t i o n of hypotheses about  nonmetropolitan  represented,  The  possible  remoteness.  (4) A l l o f t h e  allow  in their  submetropolitan  to allow  effects  as  included.  (3) C o m m u n i t i e s v a r y i n g t a n and  centres  5.  election.  In the  sample drawn f r o m  each  62  constituency,  this  g r o u p o f m a j o r c e n t r e s was  number o f s m a l l e r , more remote p l a c e s . randomly  from pools of p l a c e s  Table  provides  3  and t h e t o t a l  This table  indicates  medium-sized between  100  in  and 250  t h e sample  that  1933  number o f c o m m u n i t i e s  at the time o f e a r l i e r  polling  and  places  Table  4 shows t h e  f o r w h i c h d a t a c o u l d be e x t a n t a t 1960  enough  elections,  when a n a l y s i s  constituency  1938  o r 1955  were  so t h e s i z e  caused the d e c l i n e  t o i g n o r e t h e 1963-1966 s w i n g .  o f 1934,  with of  included  either  of the  station, sample  Amalgamations  i n numbers a f t e r  changes o f  Communities  of  1960.  seem t o have  represented,  i t was  1966, decided  w h i c h were  to another i n the  redistribu-  are dropped from the  f o c u s s e s on t h e e l e c t i o n s  total  found i n each  t o rank a p o l l i n g  f r o m 1960.  and s i n c e modern s w i n g s a r e w e l l  tions  and  A.  c o i n c i d e d w i t h the c o n s t i t u e n c y boundary  f r o m one  i n each range.  Commmunities  S i n c e a l a r g e number o f t h e s e a m a l g a m a t i o n s  shifted  population  i n c l u d e s most l a r g e  voters.  1972.  move b a c k w a r d s  stations  from each  breakdown  o f t h e s e c o m m u n i t i e s were c o d e d f o r  Many o f t h e p l a c e s  as we  ranges.  ( i n 1 9 6 0 ) , and a b o u t o n e - t h i r d  i n Appendix  non-existent, or not large  declines  size  selected  about o n e - h a l f o f communities  f e w e r t h a n 100  The v o t i n g r e s u l t s  election.  sampled  t h e sample  voters  are l i s t e d  e l e c t i o n s between  in different  number o f p o l l i n g  communities,  communities w i t h  T h e s e were  a c o n s t i t u e n c y by c o n s t i t u e n c y  s h o w i n g t h e number o f p l a c e s range,  augmented by a  sample  immediately f o l l o w i n g  63  TABLE 3:  COMPARISON OF SAMPLED NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES OF VARIOUS SIZES WITH TOTAL NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES OF VARIOUS SIZES IN EACH CONSTITUENCY. SIZES BASED ON NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS IN THE 1960 ELECTION Number o f R e g i s t e r e d  All  Total Constituencies Sample Total  Under 50  50-100  286.  149 84  12  101-250 251-500 197  57  75  5  4  5011000  Over 1000  47  53  6  807 46  36  51  99  Total: All Sizes  Voters  2  0  373 29  Alberni Sample Total  2  2 7  5  6  7  1  0  0  2  0  17 15  0  Atlin Sample Total  2 18  7  1 8  18  i  0  2  1  3  10  0  0  50  Cariboo Sample Total Columbia R i v e r Sample Total  6 3  13  12  5  15  0 64  5  6  24 26  0 2  1 13  18  10  2  1 2  1  7 2  5  2  9  4  Comox Sample Total Cowichan-Newcastle Sample Total  3  1  0  19 6  3 2  0  19  3 4  3  2  2  3  5  2  0  0  3  5 2  10  0  0  4  1  14  Cranbrook 2  Sample Total  4  4  5  2  2  1  1  1  2  0  9 16  1  Fernie Sample Total  3 12  18  2  4  2  8  1  1  2  1  12  1 43  F o r t George Sample  5  5  3  1  1  2  17  64  Table 3  (continued)  Number, o f R e g i s t e r e d V o t e r s .  Total Grand FkSrGreenwd* Sample Total  Under 50  50-100  2  2 1  19  101-250 251-500 4  8  1  1 3  1 9  501i1000  1  11  1  8-;  1  1 2  5  Over 1000  Total: All Sizes  2  45  Kamloops Sample Total  3 15  4 9  5 3  3  2  1  3  31  0  1  18  KaslorSlocan 4  Sample Total  7  11  2  2 8  1  3 4  3  12  0 34  1  Lillooet 4  Sample Total  13  2 9  2  5 6  17  1  4 4  4  18 53  Mackenzie 3  Sample Total Nelson-'Creston Sample  8  Total North Okanagan Sample  7  Total  12 1  4  2 9  3  2 1  37 2  0 2  2  5  2  0  2  16 24  3  12  3 1  1  19  3  3  4  5  2  1  1 4  11  5  16  6  3  31  North Peace Sample Total  4 19  4  0 6  2  9  1  1  0  3  11  1 39  Omine'ca Sample Total P r i n c e Rupert Sample Total  2 12  5  6  2 2  8 1  6 11  4  3  2  4 4  0  0  28  1 1  0  14 22  1  0  14  0  3  Revelstoke Sample *Grand Forks-Greenwood  5  2  3  0  0  1  11  65 Table 3  (continued)  Number o f R e g i s t e r e d V o t e r s Under 50 Total Ro s s1and-Tra i l Sample Total  8  50-100 3  3 13  101-250 251-500 3  2 7  6 3  9  5011000 4  3 3  Over 1000 5  3 1  Total: All Sizes 29  3 1  17 34  Salmon Arm Sample Total  3 0  3 2  5 2  2 2  1 1  1 4  M5 11  Similkameen Sample Total  0 16  1 4  2 7  2 1  4  1 1  10 32  3  Skeena Sample Total South Okanagan Sample Total  7 2  0 0  1 15  2 2  0 9  1 2  0 4  1 7  2 1  3 3  4 1  14 16  2 1  9 31  South Peace Sample Total  4 10  4 6  1 4  1 1  1  1 2  0  12 23  Yale Sample  4  3  4  1  0  2  14  66  TABLE 4:  SIZE OF THE NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITY SAMPLE FOR ELECTION YEARS, 1933-1972 Election Year  Number o f Communities  1933  272  1937  294  1941  308  1945  320  1949  338  1952  330  1953  336  1956  340  1960  373  1963  369  1966  326  1969  319  1972  318  67  those  redistributions. The  are of  both u t i l i z e d swing  impact  out  n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n community d a t a  i n Chapter  a r e documented, and  of region  effects  by  c o n s t i t u e n c y and  i n Chapter  socio-economic  The  i n Chapters  problems.  4 and  6 c a n be  of  electoral  s w i n g were g e n e r a t e d  additional  the s e a t .  identification  of For  Measures  from the e l e c t o r a l  d a t a and  of  from status around  c o m p o s i t i o n d i f f e r e n c e s were more c o m p l i c a t e d .  for patterning  census  data to e l e c t o r a l  call  the l o g i c  f o r comparison  (or s e t o f v a r i a b l e s )  example, c o m p a r i s o n  class  6.  in  Preparations f o r a n a l y s i s of p a t t e r n i n g  t h e same v a r i a b l e  requires  codes  i n Chapter  d i s c u s s e d , i t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t tests  community  c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s a t the time  Before options f o r f i t t i n g  posed  on  any  i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e government o r o p p o s i t i o n  socio-economic  are  5 rely  generated without  A l l c a s e s i n b o t h c o n s t i t u e n c y and  constituencies'  patterning  (patterning) variables  accordance with boundaries o u t l i n e d  each  of  sample.  samples were a s s i g n e d r e g i o n a l  of  the  4 i s carried  composition reported i n Chapter  o f t h e community  changing  examination of  explorations  Measures o f the independent tested  The  6 where t h e  competitiveness i n Chapter  with constituency data.  variants  3, where c h a n g e s i n u n i f o r m i t y  i s investigated.  of electoral  sets  of the changing  examination o f the e x p l a n a t o r y impact  v a r i a b l e on  swings  in different  of the  across  impact  of the  of  data pro-  impact  elections. class  o f t h e same  elections.  Compara-  68 bility  should a l s o extend  variable  o f measurement.  The  i n q u e s t i o n s h o u l d be m e a s u r e d i n a c o n s i s t e n t  way,  and,  s i n c e we  tant  that parallelism  a l s o be data  are d e a l i n g with aggregate  maintained.  i n one  with those  t o the matter  i n the  level  R e s u l t s from  data,  of aggregation  analysis  should  analysis of constituency  p e r i o d , f o r i n s t a n c e , are not from  i t i s impor-  really  comparable  o f more homogeneous p o l l s  in  another  period. When t h e a v a i l a b l e light  of these  c e n s u s d a t a were s u r v e y e d  comparability c r i t e r i a ,  disappointing.  A  first  the  i n the  results  glance of the p i t f a l l s  can  proved be  gleaned  from Appendix B which i n d i c a t e s whether e t h n i c , r e l i g i o u s class  composition  1961,  and  1971  census r e p o r t s .  the t a b l e  also  shows t h e  reported. provided of  use  d a t a were p r o v i d e d i n t h e  I t c a n be  the a v a i l a b l e  fundamentally  determined  able  available,  the  census  of aggregation which  are  after consideration  d a t a , the need f o r p a r a l l e l  practical  The  1951,  aggregation  t o 1961,  d e c i s i o n s were t a k e n  m e a s u r e s , and  terning  levels  1941,  here.  Three important of  that prior  s p o t t y data a t the  t o us  Where d a t a were  smallest unit of  seen  1931,  and  constraints. the  around composition  and  These d e c i s i o n s v e r y  shape o f the a n a l y s i s o f  d i f f e r e n c e s planned  e x p l o r a t o r y scheme w h i c h r e s u l t e d lowering of sights  variables  pat-  f o r Chapter  represents  f r o m what w o u l d have been  5.  a'considerdesirable.  69  The  first  decision,  availability  of  Chapter  the  and  1975, and  5 to to  the  in  focus  the  period The  census  to  the  poor,  the  and  number  because  Chapter  metropolitan  parts  around  determined  by  first  areas. have  in  the  results  the  of  the  view,  of  and  to  the out  stated  a  the  census  data  constituency  applied deal  option  be  areas. given  boundaries  would have  is  (their of  the  in  methodology.  the  with  analysis This  pat-  decision  that  should  non-  of  the  have  result,  was  impact been  most  was  felt  investigation  it  It  rejected  to  but  fitting  was  a  metropolitan  of  results  As  the  heterogeneous  to  explained  previously, patterns  of  application  exclusively in  slice  constituencies  restrict will  observing  results.  and  as  to  idea  first  of  1949-1952  narrow  The  differences.  be  in  study.  electoral fit  of  limited  during  rule  province  should  desirable, large  to  on e l e c t o r a l  priority  for  best was  the  explorations  swings  are  of  number  which,  nonmetropolitan  Inclusion  been  census  composition  modernization  apparent  try  small  decision  the we  level  level.  techniques  third  to  48) w o u l d  5, r e p r e s e n t  The  terning  the  exceeds  multivariate  that  to  between  on  parts  was  our  by  1941, 1952, 1960, 1972, and  result,  constituency  fit  never  of  composition  decision  reasonable  constrained  restrict  other  subconstituency  because  to  a  of  in  totally  heavily  As  impact  second  seemed more  of  most  examined  data  was  elections  1969-1972-1975.  changes  at  data,  one  it  of  these  areas  certainly  would  been  necessary  to  population  use  aggregates.  70  The data  data  s e t s c o n s t r u c t e d by  f o r nonmetropolitan In  changing its  r e g i o n and  alteration. effects  The  analyses of e l e c t o r a l  electoral  situation  of composition,  and  practical  a n a l y s i s planned nonmetropolitan  constraints.  f o r Chapter areas  dence a b o u t t h e s e  i n the  5 should l a s t 25  of census The  of  the from  data  patterning  identify  changes i n  t o 40 y e a r s , and  evi-  changes s h o u l d p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r i n f e r -  e n c e s a b o u t t h e more g e n e r a l v a l i d i t y o f t h e patterning p o s s i b i l i t y . underlined  swing  emerges r a t h e r s c a r r e d full  C.  can be a p p l i e d  t h i r d proposal, for analysis  c o n f r o n t a t i o n with a r e a l world  limitations  electoral  p l a c e s are d e s c r i b e d i n Appendix  c o n c l u s i o n , the proposed  p a t t e r n i n g by without  m e r g i n g c e n s u s and  But  composition  t h e word e x p l o r a t o r y s h o u l d  i n d e s c r i p t i o n s of this  section  of the  be  analysis.  71  Footnotes ''"Donald E. S t o k e s , " P a r t i e s and t h e N a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f E l e c t o r a l F o r c e s , " i n The American Party Systems: Stages of P o l i t i c a l Development, e d s . W a l t e r Dean Burnham and W i l l i a m N i s b e t Chambers (New Y o r k : O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 7 ) , pp. 182-2 02; and D o n a l d E. S t o k e s , "A V a r i a n c e Components M o d e l o f P o l i t i c a l E f f e c t s , " i n Mathematical Applications in P o l i t i c a l Science, e d . J o h n M. C l a u n c h ( D a l l a s : A r n o l d F o u n d a t i o n , 1 9 6 5 ) , pp. 61-85. 2 See Don A i t k i n , " E l e c t o r a l F o r c e s i n F e d e r a l P o l i t i c s , " a paper p r e s e n t e d t o t h e Tenth Annual Conference o f t h e Australasian P o l i t i c a l Studies Association, University of T a s m a n i a , 1968; R o b e r t W. Jackman, " P o l i t i c a l P a r t i e s , V o t i n g , and N a t i o n a l I n t e g r a t i o n : The C a n a d i a n C a s e , " Comparative P o l i t i c s 4 ( J u l y 1972):511-36; a n d R. P. W o o l s t e n c r o f t , "The I n t e r p l a y between Geography and P o l i t i c s : The Case o f C a n a d a , 1953 t o 1965," a p a p e r p r e s e n t e d t o t h e a n n u a l m e e t i n g o f t h e Canadian P o l i t i c a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a , Edmonton, 19 75. 3 Stokes, " P a r t i e s and t h e N a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f E l e c t o r a l F o r c e s , " p . 185. 4 S t o k e s , "A V a r i a n c e Components M o d e l o f P o l i t i c a l E f f e c t s , " p . 71. 5  Ibid.,  pp. 71-72.  R i c h a r d S. K a t z , "The A t t r i b u t i o n o f V a r i a n c e i n E l e c t o r a l R e t u r n s : An A l t e r n a t i v e Measurement T e c h n i q u e , " American P o l i t i c a l Science Review L X V I I (September 1973):817-28. See a l s o S t o k e s ' s r e s p o n s e , "Comment: On t h e Measurement o f E l e c t o r a l D y n a m i c s , " i b i d . , 829-31; and K a t z , " R e j o i n d e r t o 'Comment by D o n a l d E . S t o k e s , " i b i d . , 832-34. 1  7 Katz,  "The A t t r i b u t i o n  o f V a r i a n c e , " p . 819.  g in  I am i n d e b t e d t o P r o f e s s o r D a v i d E l k i n s i d e n t i f y i n g problems w i t h t h e Katz model.  f o r h i s help  9  T h i s , f o r example, i s t h e a s s u m p t i o n made by S t o k e s and K a t z i n t h e r e s e a r c h a l r e a d y n o t e d . The B r i t i s h g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s t u d i e s , w h i c h have p i o n e e r e d t h e a n a l y s i s o f s w i n g , have u s e d a p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t m e a s u r e . B u t i t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e measure u s e d i n t h e B r i t i s h s t u d i e s h a s t r i e d t o summarize s h i f t s between t h e two m a j o r p a r t i e s . Thus, i n The B r i t i s h General Election of 1945, s w i n g was d e f i n e d a s t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e [ w i n n i n g p a r t y ' s ] g a i n and t h e [ l o s i n g party's] loss. C a l c u l a t i o n s were b a s e d on p e r c e n t a g e s o f  72 t o t a l votes c a s t . See R. B. McCallum and A l i s o n Readman, The B r i t i s h General E l e c t i o n of 1945 XLondon: Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1947), pp. 263-64. The a n a l y s i s i n the 1964 and subsequent volumes i s based on a r e v i s e d d e f i n i t i o n which c a l c u l a t e s swing "on the b a s i s o f the votes c a s t f o r the two major p a r t i e s o n l y . " See M i c h a e l Steed, "The A n a l y s i s of the R e s u l t s , " Appendix I I i n The  British  General  Election  of  1964, by D. E. B u t l e r and Anthony King (London: M a c m i l l a n , 1965), p. 338. T h i s d e f i n i t i o n a l s h i f t i s p o i n t e d out.'.in A u s t i n Ranney, "Review A r t i c l e : T h i r t y Years of 'Psephology'," British  Journal  of P o l i t i c a l  Science  6  (April  1976):223-225.  "^On the c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f swing, see Hugh B. Berr i n g t o n , "The General E l e c t i o n of 1964," Journal of the Royal S t a t i s t i c a l S o c i e t y , S e r i e s A, 128 (1965):17-51 (with d i s c u s s i o n , 51-66); M i c h a e l Steed, "The A n a l y s i s of the R e s u l t s " ; W. L. M i l l e r , "Measures of E l e c t o r a l Change Using Aggregate Data," Journal  of  the  Royal  Statistical  Society,  S e r i e s A, 135 (1972):122-42; A. G. Hawkes, "An Approach t o the A n a l y s i s of E l e c t o r a l Swing," Journal of the Royal S t a t i s t i c a l S o c i e t y , S e r i e s A, 132 (1969):68-73; Jorgen Rasmussen, " D i s u t i l i t y o f the Swing Concept i n B r i t i s h Psephology," P a r l i a m e n t a r y A f f a i r s 18 (Autumn 1965) : 442-54; David B u t l e r , "A Comment on P r o f e s s o r Rasmussen's A r t i c l e , " P a r l i a m e n t a r y A f f a i r s 18 (Autumn 1965):455-57; Ian Robinson, "The Candidate's Share of the Vote: The C o n s t r u c t i o n of I n d i c e s o f E l e c t o r a l P r o x i m i t y , " P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s XIX, 4 (1971):447-54; N i g e l S. Roberts, "The Roundabout Swings of A u s t r a l i a n Psephology," P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s XIX, 3 (1973): 380-84; A l a n T a y l o r , "Measuring Movements of E l e c t o r s Using E l e c t i o n R e s u l t s , " P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s XXII, 2 (1973):204-09; J . I. Gershuny, "The Non-paradox o f Swing," B r i t i s h Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science 4 (January 1974):115-19; and David B u t l e r and Donald Stokes, P o l i t i c a l Change i n B r i t a i n (London: Macmillan, 1969), pp. 303-12. ^On  the components o f e l e c t o r a l change, see B u t l e r and  Stokes, P o l i t i c a l  Change  in B r i t a i n ,  pp.  4-5;  and  Angus  Campbell, "Surge and D e c l i n e : A Study of E l e c t o r a l Change," in  Elections  and  the  Political  Order,  -.by, Angus Campbell,  P h i l i p E. Converse, Warren E. M i l l e r and Donald E. Stokes (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1966), pp. 40-62. 12  See e s p e c i a l l y , Hugh B e r r m g t o n , "The General E l e c t i o n 1964"' and I. McLean, "The Problem o f P r o p o r t i o n a t e Swing." 13 CCF-NDP stands f o r the C o - o p e r a t i v e Commonwealth F e d e r a t i o n , and i t s successor a f t e r 1960, the New Democratic Party. The swings i n c l u d e d i n t h i s t r i a l were those of 1952-1953, 1953-1956, 1956-1960, 1960-1963, 1966-1969, and 1969-1972. The swing of 1963-1966 was omitted because cons t i t u e n c y boundary changes i n t e r v e n e d between the two e l e c tions . of  73  pp.  Butler 305-07.  and S t o k e s ,  Political  Change  in  Britain,  15 T h a t i s , a d j u s t e d s w i n g s w o u l d be o b t a i n e d by s u b t r a c t i n g e x p e c t e d swings from a c t u a l swings. Thus, i n these t h r e e e x a m p l e s , a d j u s t e d s w i n g s w o u l d e q u a l : f o r A, -1'6%; f o r B, +4%; a n d f o r C, -9%. ( f i g u r e s a p p r o x i m a t e ) . 16 R e f e r e n c e i s made t o " p a t t e r n o f c a n d i d a t u r e s " and " p a t t e r n o f c o n t e s t " i n B e r r i n g t o n , "The G e n e r a l E l e c t i o n o f 1964." 17 D a t a on v o t e by p a r t y f o r t h e 1903-,- 1907, 1909 and 1916 e l e c t i o n s a r e f r o m The Canadian Parliamentary Guide, 1905, 1908, 1910 and 1917. C e r t a i n e r r o r s and o m i s s i o n s i n t h e r e t u r n s g i v e n f o r t h e 1903, 1907, a n d 1909 e l e c t i o n s were c o r r e c t e d a f t e r c o m p a r i s o n w i t h r e s u l t s g i v e n i n R. E. G o s n e l l , The Yearbook of B r i t i s h Columbia and Manual of P r o v i n c i a l Information ( V i c t o r i a : n.p., 1 9 1 1 ) , pp. 76-80. The f o l l o w i n g c o r r e c t i o n s were made: (a) The Parliamentary Guide o f 1905 e x c l u d e d K a s l o i n i t s r e p o r t o f 1903 r e s u l t s , so G o s n e l l ' s f i g u r e s were u s e d ; (b) G o s n e l l ' s r e s u l t s were u s e d f o r L i l l o o e t i n 1907; (c) G o s n e l l ' s 1907 r e s u l t s f o r V a n c o u v e r a n d V i c t o r i a were u s e d b e c a u s e t h o s e g i v e n i n The Parliamentary Guide are incomplete; (d) w,e replaced!."the r e s u l t s g i v e n i n The Parliamentary Guide f o r Dewdney and F e r n i e in-19.09..with t h o s e g i v e n i n G o s n e l l ; (e) we r e s o l v e d d i s c r e p a n c i e s b e t w e e n G o s n e l l and The Parliamentary Guide on t h e m a t t e r o f p a r t y l a b e l s a t t a c h e d t o c a n d i d a t e s i n favour of the information given i n Gosnell. The f o l l o w i n g s h o u l d a l s o be n o t e d : (1) A c e r t a i n number o f MLAs were e l e c t e d by a c c l a m a t i o n i n e a r l y e l e c t i o n s . Constituencies i n w h i c h c a n d i d a t e s were a c c l a i m e d i n one o r b o t h e l e c t i o n s i n v o l v e d i n an e l e c t i o n p a i r were e x c l u d e d f r o m a n a l y s i s o f t h a t swing. (2) D a t a on t h e number o f r e g i s t e r e d v o t e r s p e r c o n s t i t u e n c y were n o t g i v e n i n The Parliamentary Guide f o r 1903, 1907, 1909, o r 1916 e l e c t i o n s b u t were g i v e n by G o s n e l l (p. 81) f o r 1903, 1907, and 1909. D a t a on v o t e by p a r t y , a n d number o f r e g i s t e r e d v o t e r s i n t h e 1920 and 1924 e l e c t i o n s were t a k e n f r o m B r i t i s h Columb i a , Department o f the P r o v i n c i a l S e c r e t a r y , B r i t i s h Columbia General E l e c t i o n , 1920--Statement of the P o l l s as C e r t i f i e d by Returning O f f i c e r s on Completion of Final Count; and General Election and P l e b i s c i t e , 1924--Statement of the P o l l s as C e r t i f i e d by Returning O f f i c e r s on Completion of Final Count. The p a r t y l a b e l s o f c a n d i d a t e s were n o t g i v e n i n t h e s e two s t a t e m e n t s so p a r t y l a b e l s were t a k e n f r o m t h e r e t u r n s g i v e n i n The Parliamentary Guide. D a t a on v o t e by p a r t y a n d number o f r e g i s t e r e d v o t e r s i n a l l o t h e r e l e c t i o n s were t a k e n f r o m B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , C h i e f E l e c t o r a l O f f i c e r , Statement of Votes: General Election (1928, 1933, 1937, 1941,  74  1945,  1 9 5 2 , 1 9 5 3 , 1 9 5 6 , 1 9 6 0 , 1 9 6 3 , 1 9 6 6 , 1 9 6 9 , 1 9 7 2 , 1 9 7 5 )  (Victoria,  various  dates).  18  For a d i s c u s s i o n o f c o n s t i t u e n c y boundary adjustments i n t h i s c e n t u r y s e e J o h n R o b e r t C h a l k , "A P r o p o s e d R e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f P r o v i n c i a l E l e c t o r a l D i s t r i c t s on t h e B a s i s o f N o d a l R e g i o n s " (M.A. t h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 2 3 - 3 1 ; B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Redefinition of Electoral Districts (Victoria, 1 9 6 6 ) , and B r i t i s h Columbia, C h i e f E l e c t o r a l O f f i c e r , Provinc i a l Electoral D i s t r i c t s : R e d i s t r i b u t i o n of 1966 ( V i c t o r i a , 1966) . 19  In 1 9 3 4 t h e C o l u m b i a - R e v e l s t o k e c o n s t i t u e n c y was i n t o t h e Columbia and R e v e l s t o k e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . There a l s o minor changes i n t h e Cranbrook c o n s t i t u e n c y . In 1 9 t h e P e a c e R i v e r c o n s t i t u e n c y was d i v i d e d i n t o t h e N o r t h R i v e r and S o u t h P e a c e R i v e r c o n s t i t u e n c i e s .  split were 55 Peace  20  F i r s t b a l l o t r e s u l t s o f t h e 1 9 5 2 and 1 9 5 3 e l e c t i o n s were u s e d . In a l l e l e c t i o n s , p a r t y p e r c e n t a g e s i n m u l t i member r i d i n g s were e s t i m a t e d by f i r s t d i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l v o t e s o b t a i n e d by t h e p a r t y ' s c a n d i d a t e s by t h e number o f members t o be r e t u r n e d f r o m t h e c o n s t i t u e n c y , and t h e n d i v i d i n g t h e r e s u l t by t h e f i g u r e r e a c h e d when t h e t o t a l number o f v o t e s c a s t was d i v i d e d by t h e number o f members t o be r e t u r n e d . 21  The 1 9 3 3 - 1 9 7 2 p e r i o d o f a n a l y s i s was d e t e r m i n e d by the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f data. R e s u l t s on v o t i n g a t t h e p o l l l e v e l were n o t p u b l i s h e d f o r e l e c t i o n s p r i o r t o 1 9 2 8 , w h i l e p o l l l e v e l r e s u l t s f o r t h e 1 9 7 5 e l e c t i o n were n o t a v a i l a b l e when most o f t h e a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d o u t . The 1 9 2 8 - 1 9 3 3 s w i n g was i g n o r e d b e c a u s e t h e 1 9 3 3 e l e c t i o n i n v o l v e d a number of s p e c i a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s which might b i a s r e s u l t s . P o l l data were o b t a i n e d f r o m B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , C h i e f E l e c t o r a l O f f i c e r , Statement of Votes: General Election ( 1 9 3 3 , 1 9 3 7 , 1 9 4 1 , 1 9 4 5 1949,  1 9 5 2 , 1 9 5 3 , 1 9 5 6 , 1 9 6 0 , 1 9 6 3 , 1 9 6 6 , 1 9 6 9 , 1 9 7 2 , 1 9 7 5 )  (Victoria, various dates). P o l l b o u n d a r i e s have never been r i g i d l y defined i n nonmetropolitan constituencies. For example, t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f p o l l s i n t h e s e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s a f t e r the 1 9 6 6 r e d i s t r i b u t i o n reads: the constituency i s " d i v i d e d i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g [x] p o l l i n g s t a t i o n s , b e i n g t h e p l a c e s named and t h e t e r r i t o r y t r i b u t a r y t o them f r o m t h e standpoint of a c c e s s i b i l i t y . " See B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , D e p a r t ment o f t h e P r o v i n c i a l S e c r e t a r y , P o l l i n g Divisions for the 48 Electoral D i s t r i c t s Established by the 1966 R e d i s t r i b u t i o n (Victoria, 1 9 6 6 ) . Although exact comparability of the areas i n c l u d e d i n s u c c e s s i v e e l e c t i o n s c a n n o t be assumed, t h e c o r r e s p o n d e n c e s h o u l d be v e r y c l o s e . The s t e p s i n c a l c u l a t i n g p e r c e n t a g e s and s w i n g s f o r p o l l s were t h e same as t h o s e  ,  75  f o l l o w e d w i t h the were u s e d f o r t h e  constituency data. First 1952 and 1953 elections.  ballot  results  22 I n o r d e r t o l e a v e room i n c o n s t i t u e n c y q u o t a s f o r more remote p l a c e s a few c o m m u n i t i e s i n e x c e s s o f 500 v o t e r s were e x c l u d e d i n Comox, Kamloops, R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , C o w i c h a n N e w c a s t l e , M a c k e n z i e and S o u t h Okanagan.  CHAPTER  DESCRIPTION THE  The  Columbia  in  to  this  swings  Separate  both  led  to to  Analysis  chapter.  for  the  uniformity  the  investigations of  most  Chapters The The  first  for  15  4,  5,  two  data  are  sets  y i e l d s general uniformity.  Analysis  affected  by  in  thus  patterns  r e s u l t s on  of the  1907  estimates The  second  these areas  modernization,  change.  swings  in  shows  swing  and  that  widely  community  efforts in  the  at  the  which  swings  part  offered is  are  to  interpreting  second  stage  is  British  in elections prior  explanations  examined were  nonmetropolitan  developments  and  swing  e l e c t i o n s between  1933.  reported  SWING  electoral  century  Initial  OF  set  of are,  for  reported  in  6.  contains  of  of  constituency  rejected  and  of  likely  straightforward  part,  sample  tions  of  conclusion.  the  the  much more  studies  The  ELECTORAL  chapter.  were  this  OF  uniformity  trend  swing  UNIFORMITY  EXAMINATION  increased  the  data  PRELIMINARY  e l e c t i o n s throughout  divergent 1952.  TREND TO  trend  described  AND  3  swings and of  contains  r e s u l t s helps  and  Analysis  changing  communities  which  i n Chapter  in a l l constituencies  1975. the  set  introduced  should  in to  of  degree  these of  results for  12  elections  clarify  have  particularly  been by  a after  electoral most  communica-  2.  The  u n i f o r m i t y o f swing i n a given e l e c t i o n i s gauged  by the d i s p e r s a l o f swings around the mean p r o v i n c i a l swing. Both the standard  d e v i a t i o n , and the percentage o f cases  f a l l i n g w i t h i n a narrow range o f the mean p r o v i n c i a l swing are taken as evidence o f t h i s d i s p e r s a l . t i v e l y uniform, then the standard  I f swing i s r e l a -  d e v i a t i o n i s s m a l l , and a  l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f cases produce swings f a l l i n g w i t h i n (or  five  ten) percentage p o i n t s o f the mean swing. Swings around the government p a r t y and the major  t i o n p a r t y are analyzed  opposi-  s e p a r a t e l y t o ensure t h a t we have  more than one i n d i c a t o r o f the p r e v a i l i n g swing p a t t e r n s . In order t o maintain ing  as much parsimony as p o s s i b l e i n r e p o r t -  o f r e s u l t s , the s t a t i s t i c s presented  of those obtained Findings: Swing Voter Aggregates,  Table  i n the separate  Uniformity 1903-1975  are u s u a l l y averages  analyses.  Across  5 shows the marked i n c r e a s e i n c r o s s - c o n s t i t u e n c y  u n i f o r m i t y o f swing.  The e n t r i e s d e s c r i b e average l e v e l s o f  d i s p e r s a l around mean swings d u r i n g f o u r p e r i o d s : 1903-28, 1933-52, 1953-63, and 1966-75.  1  The p e r i o d demarcation  p o i n t s were chosen with an eye t o -having equal numbers o f e l e c t i o n s .  each p e r i o d  include  The 1933 and 1952 e l e c t i o n s pro-  v i d e n a t u r a l c u t - o f f p o i n t s s i n c e each marked the beginning of a d i s t i n c t p e r i o d i n the h i s t o r y o f the p a r t y The  CCF f i r s t  ran candidates  i n 1933, while  system.  1952 marked the  a r r i v a l o f S o c i a l C r e d i t as a major f o r c e , and the s t a r t of  TABLE 5:  Period  HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF SWING UNIFORMITY ACROSS CONSTITUENCIES, 1903-1975, WHERE .; SWING IS MEASURED AS PERCENTAGE POINT SHIFT. PERIOD AVERAGES OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROPORTIONS OF CONSTITUENCY SWINGS WITHIN CERTAIN RANGES. AVERAGES ACROSS RESULTS FROM ANALYSES OF GOVERNMENT PARTY AND MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY SWINGS, AND ACROSS ELECTIONS WITHIN PERIODS Number o f Swings i n Period 3  Average S.D. Around Mean Percentage P o i n t Swings  Average  Percentage o f C o n s t i t u e n c i e s W i t h i n :  (±) 5 Percentage P o i n t s o f Mean Swings^  (±) 10 Percentage P o i n t s o f Mean Swings  1903-28  8  10.1  38.5  64.2  1933-52°  8  10.5  43.2  72.4  1953-63  8  5.9  66.8  89.5  1966-75  6  7.0  59.4  85.4  'The number o f swings i n a p e r i o d i s e q u a l t o t h e number o f e l e c t i o n s times two (the number o f p a r t i e s whose swings were a n a l y z e d i n each e l e c t i o n ) . I f we were l o o k i n g a t swings i n one p a r t y ' s support i n one e l e c t i o n , and found a mean percentage p o i n t swing a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s o f *10%, the f i g u r e i n t h i s column would t e l l us the percentage o f c o n s t i t u e n c i e s i n which percentage p o i n t swings t o t h a t p a r t y were between +5% and +15%. The f i g u r e s g i v e n , as noted, a r e averages a c r o s s the two major p a r t i e s and a s e r i e s o f e l e c t i o n s . In 1952 t h e government p a r t y swing was taken t o be the d i f f e r e n c e between C o a l i t i o n support i n 1949 and combined L i b e r a l and C o n s e r v a t i v e support i n 1952.  79 the p e r i o d i n which S o c i a l C r e d i t and the CCF-NDP were the principal  protagonists.  Perhaps the most dramatic i n d i c a t i o n of the t r e n d t o u n i f o r m i t y i s found i n the column o f Table  5 which g i v e s the  p r o p o r t i o n o f cases w i t h i n f i v e percentage p o i n t s o f mean swing.  P r i o r t o 1952 the average on t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s about  4 0 % — o n the average, about t h r e e - f i f t h s of  constituency  swings diverge by more than f i v e percentage p o i n t s from the mean swing i n a given e l e c t i o n .  For e l e c t i o n s a f t e r  1952  the average i s over 6 0 % — o n the average, only about o n e - t h i r d of c o n s t i t u e n c y  swings diverge by more than f i v e percentage  p o i n t s from mean swings. Thus, frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n curves c o n s t r u c t e d  t o show  the p r o p o r t i o n o f c o n s t i t u e n c i e s which produce swings of v a r i o u s d e v i a t i o n s would vary c o n s i d e r a b l y  i n peakedness.  Curves f o r the e a r l y p e r i o d would be much l e s s peaked,  indi-  c a t i n g the g r e a t e r d i s p e r s a l around mean swings i n t h a t period. The p e r i o d summation s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h a t the t r e n d t o g r e a t e r u n i f o r m i t y o f swing l e v e l l e d o f f a f t e r 1963. F i g u r e 8, which p l o t s the movement of standard  deviations  across 15 e l e c t i o n s , allows more d e t a i l e d s c r u t i n y of t h i s trend.  T h i s map  o f d i s p e r s a l r a t e s i n d i c a t e s t h a t the l e v e l -  l i n g o f f p e r i o d came i n the e a r l y 1960's, with the degree of u n i f o r m i t y o b t a i n i n g i n 1963 not matched i n subsequent e l e c tions.  The 1963 e l e c t i o n f e a t u r e d more u n i f o r m i t y than any  80  •  1907  i  i  i  i  •  1909  1920  11928  1937  i 1945  i  i  1949  1952  I  1953  I  1956  i 1960  i 1963  1  1969  i 1972  , ( 1975  Year o f Swing  FIGURE 8:  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975. Standard d e v i a t i o n s around mean percentage p o i n t swings. Averages from s e p a r a t e a n a l y s e s o f government p a r t y and main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y swings.  81 other with the  to fathom, but  election  i s ignored,  f r o m 1937 uniform  the  i s the  after  t o 1963.  than  If  on  exception  exceptionally high  ficult  so  the  1953  election.  u n i f o r m i t y o f 1953 i t i s interesting  we  find  a steady  Swings i n t h e  i n any  other  Reasons f o r  are  initially  t h a t i f the  decrease  1937  in  i n 19 6 3 i s  T r e n d s c a n n o t be elections,  but  the  evidence  hold  i n t h e mid-1960's. than  i n any  Swing i n t h e  election  above a n a l y s i s was  nonmetropolitan  communities  This a d d i t i o n a l study  1975  importance of the  should  be  encies  just  allows  replicated  sug-  swing  e l e c t i o n was of  u s i n g the  took less  the  examined, the  data  i n e l e c t i o n s f r o m 1933 c l o s e r examination  communications  most a p p a r e n t .  to our  ideas  development,  In comparison w i t h nonmetropolitan  by  In t h i s  so t h e  a b o u t u n i f o r m i t y w i t h i n , as w e l l as  uencies .  in  about  change  communities  results  1972.  the c o n s t i t u -  sample, each c o n s t i t u e n c y  s e v e r a l communities,  to  on .  of trends  a l a r g e r sample o f s m a l l e r , more homogeneous  collectivities.  thing  does  of  s i n c e the b e g i n n i n g  t h e p a r t s o f t h e p r o v i n c e where, a c c o r d i n g  sented  interesting,  Credit era.  The  prise  less  conclusively established  t h a t a t r e n d towards g r e a t e r h e t e r o g e n e i t y  the  dispersal  e l e c t i o n were  gest  Social  1953  a p p a r e n t movement away f r o m u n i f o r m i t y w h i c h began ;  basis of three  uniform  dif-  analyzed.  downward t r e n d c u l m i n a t i n g  that date.  the  of the  com-  voter i s repre-  i n d i c a t e some-  across,  constit-  82 The t e s t s of d i s p e r s a l were a p p l i e d t o two v e r s i o n s of the b a s i c community sample.  T h i s d u p l i c a t i o n of t e s t s was  undertaken i n order t o minimize c e r t a i n methodological  dan-  gers which stem from the f a c t t h a t swings i n very s m a l l v o t e r c o l l e c t i v i t i e s are not s t r i c t l y comparable with swings i n l a r g e r ones. presented  The comparison of h y p o t h e t i c a l communities  i n Table  or negative)  6 shows t h a t l a r g e swings  (either p o s i t i v e  are more l i k e l y i n very small communities and  thus i l l u s t r a t e s why  s e t s of small communities are l i k e l y t o  i n f l a t e s t a t i s t i c s on dispersal... .  • TABLE 6:  HYPOTHETICAL SWINGS IN TWO  COMMUNITIES: VOTES AND  Small Community Election 1  PERCENTAGES  Large Community  Election 2  Election 1  Election 2  Party A  5  (20%)  10  (40%)  200  (20%)  400  (40%)  Party B  20  (80%)  15  (60%)  800  (80%)  600  (60%)  25  25  1000  1000  I t i s assumed i n t h i s example t h a t swings r e s u l t from preference s w i t c h i n g among members of f i x e d e l e c t o r a t e s . the s m a l l community, a change of mind by f i v e v o t e r s to the d o u b l i n g o f p a r t y A's support swing o f 20%.  In leads  and a percentage p o i n t  In the l a r g e community, the same swing  r e q u i r e s change by 200 v o t e r s .  Our argument  i s t h a t the  change i n the s m a l l community i s much more l i k e l y .  The  small community i s more homogeneous so a l l o f i t s v o t e r s  83 could all  easily  of  crew.  be i n f l u e n c e d by one o p i n i o n  i t s voters  small  One w o u l d e x p e c t t o s e e  v a r i a t i o n i n swing across  places,  Indeed,  c o u l d b e l o n g t o one f a m i l y o r l o g g i n g  The i m p l i c a t i o n i s c l e a r .  more e x t r e m e  leader.  because l a r g e  a sample  containing  s w i n g s a r e more l i k e l y  i n such  places. Unfortunately, it.  this  Q u e s t i o n s remain about t h e s i z e  crossed the  to recognize  before  comparability  distribution  size  p r o d u c e d by c o m m u n i t i e s t o questions  most s e n s i b l e o p t i o n have v e r y  small  of communities  thresholds  c a n be assumed.  w h i c h must be  F o r example, i s  o f s w i n g s p r o d u c e d by c o m m u n i t i e s  f r o m 100 t o 200 v o t e r s  c u t answers  problem i s not t o solve  comparable w i t h  with  the d i s t r i b u t i o n  more t h a n 1000 v o t e r s ?  like  this  i n v o l v e s m u l t i p l e t e s t s on s a m p l e s  communities examined  excluded.  The f i r s t  consists of a l lplaces  e l e c t i o n o f t h e swing p a i r .  ranges i n s i z e A s e c o n d sample criterion  collection  i n t h e com-  left  i n the  a sample  This  which  i n 1937 t o 271 i n 1972.  was a r r i v e d a t by s e t t i n g 100 v o t e r s  lines  7 both t e l l  revealed  This  which  sample  ranges i n s i z e  as t h e f r o m 87  i n 1937 t o 199 i n 1972.  The t r e n d Table  f r o m 183 c o m m u n i t i e s  for selection.  communities  Clear-  a r e n o t p o s s i b l e , so t h e  m u n i t y sample w h i c h h a d more t h a n 35 p e o p l e v o t i n g first  ranging i n  i n Figure  a s t o r y which  9, and t h e p e r i o d  i s consistent with  i n the study o f constituency  towards swing u n i f o r m i t y  averages i n  swings.  i s apparent i n both  that  A sharp trend community  FIGURE 9:  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities, 1933-1972. Standard d e v i a t i o n s around mean percentage p o i n t swings. Averages from s e p a r a t e a n a l y s e s o f government p a r t y and main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y swings. T e s t s on two samples o f communities s e l e c t e d by a p p l y i n g d i f f e r e n t s i z e c r i t e r i a . 3  Both samples were drawn from the b a s i c community sample o u t l i n e d i n Chapter 2. They d i f f e r i n terms o f the s i z e o f communities s e l e c t e d . For an e x p l a n a t i o n see the t e x t , pp. 82-83.  85  TABLE 7:  HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF SWING UNIFORMITY ACROSS NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES, 1933-1973. PERIOD AVERAGES OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN TWO SAMPLES OF COMMUNITIES 3  Average S.D. Around Govt. P a r t y Swings Sampled with 100  than  voters  excluded:  15. 2  16.8  16.0  13.8  13. 3  13.6  1953-63  10.4  9.1  9.8  1966-72  10.4  8.9  9.6  18.8  21.2  20.0  1945-52°  17.3  16.2  16.8  1953-63  12. 2  11.2  11.7  1966-72  12.2  10.6  11.4  b  1945-52  C  Sampled 35  Average S.D. Both P a r t i e s  communities fewer  1933-41  with  Average S.D. Around Main O p p o s i t i o n P a r t y Swings  communities fewer  than  voters  1933-41  excluded: b  Both samples were drawn from the b a s i c community sample o u t l i n e d i n Chapter 2. They d i f f e r i n terms o f t h e s i z e o f communities e x c l u d e d . F o r an e x p l a n a t i o n see t h e t e x t , pp. 82-83. 'in 1941 the CCF was t r e a t e d as the main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y . In 1952 the government p a r t y swing was taken t o be the d i f f e r e n c e between C o a l i t i o n s u p p o r t i n 1949 and combined L i b e r a l and C o n s e r v a t i v e support i n 1952.  86 samples.  The  magnitude o f the  change o v e r t i m e i s  consider-  2 able. the  When we  compare a c r o s s  average standard  1953-63 and  f o r the  the  are  trends The  1953  constituency  latter  1972  i n v a r i a n t across  results,  1953  i n these  marks t h e  elections reveal a less  these  decrease  e l e c t i o n s may  within-constituency The establish ity.  Confirmation tery  undertaking  of  the  exceptions,  H e r e , as  f r o m 1937  in  find  t o 1963.  The  the  pronounced t r e n d and  1969  across  off  and  away f r o m  1972  by  the  we  of a l e v e l l i n g  results,  1969  the  samples.  have been b a l a n c e d  the  chapter  focusses  o f any  surrounding  two  in uniformity  meaning o f t h e  Each, a t t e m p t  that  the  results  constituencies  an  increase  in  uniformity.  remainder of the  W i t h a few  beginning  The  size  swing i s i g n o r e d ,  nonmetropolitan  h i g h w a t e r mark o f u n i f o r m i t y .  in  the  decline in variation  suggest t h a t the  find  about h a l f the  appears aberrant.  i f the  e l e c t i o n again  p e r i o d but,  are  pre-1952 p e r i o d .  swing a g a i n  a q u i t e steady  we  d e v i a t i o n s a r o u n d mean s w i n g s i n  1966-72 p e r i o d s  deviations  four periods,  the  of the  r e p o r t s on  observed trends on  a fairly  four attempts i n swing  simple  f i n d i n g s and  further explorations.  s a v e us  the  uniform-  explanation.  arguments w o u l d u n r a v e l  the  trouble  to  mysof  87 The Argument that Trends are an A r t i f a c t of the Increased Size of Voter Aggregates  The  f i r s t and most d i s t u r b i n g a l t e r n a t i v e to the view  t h a t the observed trends province's  i n d i c a t e a profound change i n the  e l e c t o r a l sociology  has been suggested i n the  argument about the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the s i z e o f v o t e r aggregates and t h e i r p r o p e n s i t y f o r l a r g e swings. ference between the two  The  dif-  t r e n d l i n e s shown i n F i g u r e 9 bears  out the c o n t e n t i o n of t h a t argument—when the sample  analyzed  i n c l u d e s s m a l l e r communities, the r a t e s of d i s p e r s a l are larger. The  The p o s s i b l e i m p l i c a t i o n of t h i s argument i s c l e a r .  g r e a t e r swing u n i f o r m i t y of the modern p e r i o d may  be  a r t i f a c t u a l s i n c e modern samples c o n t a i n l a r g e r v o t e r aggregates  (the same p l a c e s grown l a r g e r ) . It  i s d i f f i c u l t to c o u n t e r a c t  t h i s argument without  f u l l understanding  of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between community  and the p r o p e n s i t y  f o r l a r g e swings.  reason  size  C e r t a i n l y there i s no  t o assume l i n e a r i t y o f e f f e c t s .  of 10 v o t e r s may  a  That i s , communities  be ten times more prone to w i l d f l u c t u a t i o n s  than communities of 100  v o t e r s , but those of 100  not ten times as prone as those of 1000.  are  probably  I t should be  ated t h a t , i n the a n a l y s i s of the community r e s u l t s ,  reiter-  the  trends p e r s i s t as more of the s m a l l p l a c e s are removed from the sample.  And  i t i s a l s o important  t o remember t h a t i n the  a n a l y s i s of c o n s t i t u e n c y data, the c o l l e c t i v i t i e s d e a l t w i t h contained hundreds and thousands of v o t e r s , not dozens  and  88 hundreds not  of voters.  have o p e r a t e d . In  order to test  community of  The same s o u r c e o f s p u r i o u s n e s s s h o u l d  the a l t e r n a t i v e  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , the  a n a l y s i s o f u n i f o r m i t y was r e p l i c a t e d  similarly  sized  communities.  Swing  i n four  (1941, 1952, 1960 and 1972) was a n a l y z e d . only  communities  selected The  f a l l i n g w i t h i n narrow  from t h e b a s i c  results  community  included  s i z e o f community a r e g i v e n These native of  findings  inflict  interpretation.  swing p e r s i s t s  munities which  and t h e a v e r a g e r a n g e , we f i n d 16.0 and 16.8  i n each  f o r each fatal  election.  damage t o t h e f i r s t  The f a m i l i a r  The  study and t h e average  trend  i n t h e 75 t o 500 v o t e r  towards  Thus,  alter-  uniformity  among comf o r example,  range a r e s e l e c t e d ,  o f community r e m a i n s  average  r a n g e s were  o f T a b l e 8.  even when we compare d i s p e r s a l  size  election,  f o r examination.  are roughly equal i n s i z e .  where c o m m u n i t i e s  for  population  sample  samples  elections  In each  are presented i n the four parts  number o f c o m m u n i t i e s  using  i n t h e 175 t o 200  standard deviations  declining  from  f o r t h e 1941 and 1952 s w i n g s , t o 12.6 and 10.7  t h e 1960 a n d 1972 s w i n g s .  w i t h more t h a n 250 v o t e r s  Where o n l y  a r e examined,  sampled  communities  the average standard  d e v i a t i o n s a r e n e a r l y h a l v e d a s we move f r o m 1941 t o 1972. In the  a l l four tests, earlier  t h e t r e n d s match t h o s e f o u n d t o e x i s t i n  investigaton.  t r e n d s toward u n i f o r m i t y way p r o p o s e d by t h e f i r s t  Thus we c a n be s u r e t h a t t h e are not spuriously alternative  related  i n the  interpretation.  TABLE 8:  Swing Between Sampled  TRENDS IN SWING UNIFORMITY ACROSS NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES AFTER CONTROLS ON COMMUNITY SIZE. ANALYSES OF 1941, 1952, 1960 AND 1972 SWINGS AMONG NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES OF SIMILAR SIZES. STANDARD DEVIATIONS AROUND MEAN SWINGS. FOUR PARTS FOR DIFFERENT SIZE PARAMETERS.  communities  1937-41 1949-52 1956-60 1969-72 Sampled  1937-41 1949-52 1956-60 1969-72 Sampled  1937-41 1949-52 1956-60 1969-72  with  more  27 56 65 90  1937-41 1949-52 1956-60 1969-72 Sampled  Average S i z e o f Communities I n c l u d e d (Voters)  No. o f Cases  communities  with  more  80 111 111 105  voting  than  14.1 12.8 7.9 8.0 250  with  between  75  voting  500  voting  190 193 202 between  75  140 140 142 143  and  250  14.8 10.5 9.0 6.1  14.4 11.6 8.4 7.0  15.6 10.3 10.1 7.0  14.6 11.2 9.3 7.8  17.0 14.9 12.7 10.0  16.0 16.8 12.6 10.7  17.2 16.2 12.7 10.4  16.3 18.3 12.8 11.1  voters:  14.9 18.6 12.4 11.4  111  with  Average S.D. Both P a r t i e s  voters:  13.5 12.1 8.5 8.5 and  S.D. f o r Main O p p o s i t i o n P a r t y Swings  voters:  928 1143 1185 1591  99 145 148 144 communities  500  1344 1624 1663 2124  46 90 102 129 communities  than  S.D. f o r Government P a r t y Swings  voting  voters:  15.4 20.4 13.0 11.8  90 The Argument that Trends to Uniformity Would Disappear i f the Effects of S h i f t s in Community Composition Were Removed  A second argument i s t h a t the trends to swing u n i f o r m i t y simply  r e f l e c t the f a c t t h a t major s h i f t s i n the  composition  of v o t e r aggregates were more common i n some h i s t o r i c a l iods.  Composition s h i f t s such as the one  a community of farmers i s transformed  per-  t a k i n g p l a c e when  i n t o a community of  c o n s t r u c t i o n workers, would n a t u r a l l y cause wide e l e c t i o n - t o e l e c t i o n s h i f t s i n the vote. composition  Thus, when major changes i n  are common, extreme swings should be  and r a t e s of swing d i s p e r s a l h i g h . those presented  prevalent  D i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s than  above might o b t a i n i f r a t e s of d i s p e r s a l  across s t a b l e communities were compared f o r d i f f e r e n t e l e c tions.  I f so, we would have to a l t e r our ideas  the causes of the No evidence two  concerning  trends. can be brought to bear on t h i s argument, but  p o i n t s can be made i n a s s e r t i n g t h a t i t does not  o u s l y c h a l l e n g e our i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the t r e n d s .  seri-  In the  f i r s t p l a c e , the argument should not apply where c o n s t i t u e n c y r e s u l t s are concerned s i n c e c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , u n l i k e communit i e s , are u n l i k e l y to undergo r a d i c a l s h i f t s i n  composition.  In the second p l a c e , the p e r i o d of B r i t i s h Columbia h i s t o r y which seems most l i k e l y t o have f e a t u r e d a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number of major s h i f t s i n community composition, 1970  p e r i o d , i s the p e r i o d of h i g h e s t u n i f o r m i t y .  the  1950-  This  91 s u g g e s t s t h a t c o n t r o l s f o r community s t a b i l i t y , be  a p p l i e d , would probably  i f they  could  show t h a t t h e f i n d i n g s a c t u a l l y  underestimate p e r i o d d i f f e r e n c e s i n uniformity. The Argument that Differences in Consistency of Minor Party Presence on the Ballot Cause the Observed Trends A third voters  in different  was t h i s  r i d i n g s became more u n i f o r m ,  fixes  as d i s c r e t e , a n d  isolated  The p r e m i s e u n d e r l y i n g  riding-to-riding there  variation  and t h a t i t  f o r a n a l y s i s , even  i s wide v a r i a t i o n  constant,  This  across  voters  though  social-political  t h e argument i s t h a t  i n swing s h o u l d  develgreat  be e x p e c t e d where  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s i n the presence  o f m i n o r p a r t i e s on t h e b a l l o t . is  offered  a t t e n t i o n on a p o s s i b l e t r e n d w h i c h c a n be  w o u l d be c o n n e c t e d t o more g e n e r a l  opments.  options  s o c i o l o g y which produced the observed t r e n d s .  alternative treated  i s that the b a l l o t  d e v e l o p m e n t r a t h e r t h a n more p r o f o u n d c h a n g e s i n  electoral  it  possibility  Where m i n o r p a r t y  i n a l l r i d i n g s face s i m i l a r  swings around t h e major p a r t i e s s h o u l d  presence  s l a t e s , and  be more u n i f o r m .  For  example, i n 1975, when t h e r e were s u b s t a n t i a l c o n s t i t u e n c y differences swing should party  i n Liberal  and P r o g r e s s i v e  have been l e s s  uniform  p r e s e n c e was more u n i f o r m .  greater  consistency  have t i e d  o f minor p a r t y  the observed trends  than  presence,  i n 1972 when m i n o r  I f t h e r e was a t r e n d t o  d e v e l o p m e n t c a n be l i n k e d t o t r e n d s will  Conservative  p r e s e n c e , and i f s u c h a to uniformity, t o a systemic  then  we  development  92  w h i c h i s a good d e a l more s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d t h a n t h e  develop-  ments e n v i s a g e d  The  present ballot It  i n some o f o u r  argument does n o t options  simply  between s o c i e t a l explanatory connection An had  no  to the  t o one and  arguments.  deny t h a t i n c r e a s e d u n i f o r m i t y  would probably  points  earlier  stem f r o m b r o a d e r  t a s k w o u l d be  c h a n g e , and  simplified  i f we  p a r t i c u l a r monopoly on  suggests that  our  could  the  the  c o n d i t i o n s which,  i n swing.  But  the  hypothesis  the  controls advised,  seems  in  o f minor p a r t y  the  In o r d e r  pattern" control variable introduced i n swing u n i f o r m i t y  consistency  when t h e  explanatory  impact of the  to  to apply  the  i n Chapter  connected to  presence w i l l contest  great  important  i t i s necessary  Temporal v a r i a t i o n  according  encourage  enough t o demand a more s t r e n u o u s r e s p o n s e .  "contest  confirm  suggests that e a r l i e r e l e c t i o n s  argument u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , s h o u l d  institute  intervene  posited.  i m p r e s s i o n i s t i c survey  variation  developments.  d i s c r e t e v a r i a b l e w h i c h may  electoral  of  be  2.  variation removed  variable is  clar-  ified. We within  will  is  concerned with  the  amount o f  groups o f c o n s t i t u e n c i e s s h a r i n g the  Election the  be  2 contest  patterns.  1952-53 s w i n g , we across  the  24  For  want t o see  instance, how  uniformity same E l e c t i o n 1i n the  case  much u n i f o r m i t y  of  there  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s i n which f o u r p a r t i e s con-  t e s t e d b o t h e l e c t i o n s , how c o n s t i t u e n c i e s w h i c h had  much t h e r e  i s across  four party-plus  the  contests  in  10 1952  93 and  four party-plus  contests  i n 1953, and s o o n .  In e f f e c t ,  we want t o compare t h e a v e r a g e " w i t h i n - c o n t e s t  type"  tion  elections.  forthis  e l e c t i o n with  averages  we p e r f o r m a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e tern  f o r other  on swings u s i n g  contest  level  provides  constituencies sharing  T h i s component r e p r e s e n t s  t h e same  a variance  mate w h i c h i s u n c o n t a m i n a t e d by c r o s s - c o n s t i t u e n c y minor p a r t y The  trend  i n t h e average v a r i a n c e  correlates  earlier  i n the chapter.  showed t h e t r e n d b e f o r e  level that  higher  these  inconsistencies  The l i n e  the l i n e controls.  i n Figure  i n Figure  I t might have been  still  i n Liberal  i n major p a r t y  and P r o g r e s s i v e  t h e peak expected  Conservative  swings even a c r o s s patterns.  s w i n g t h a n any e l e c t i o n  party  considerable  constituencies  a p p e a r s t o have b e e n marked by l e s s  constituency  is still  v a r i a t i o n w o u l d have b e e n r e l a t e d t o  s h a r i n g t h e same 1972-1975 c o n t e s t tion  10  8 which  Uniformity  p r e s e n c e , b u t i t i s f o u n d i n s t e a d t h a t t h e r e was variation  Clearly  i n the post-1952 p e r i o d , w i t h  r e a c h e d i n 1960 a n d 1963. some o f t h e 19 75  10.  v a r i a b l e do n o t e r o d e t h e t r e n d  quite closely with  substantially  variation  among c o n s t i t u e n c i e s  i s plotted i n Figure  c o n t r o l s on t h e c o n t e s t  evidenced  esti-  presence.  sharing contest patterns the  mean  a good i n d i c a t o r o f t h e a v e r a g e  o f uniformity across  contest patterns.  If  pat-  as t h e Independent v a r i a b l e , t h e n t h e w i t h i n - g r o u p s  square s t a t i s t i c  in  varia-  The 1975 e l e c uniformity of  s i n c e t h e 1940's.  94  170  150-  1907  1909  1920  1928  1937  1945  1949  1952  1953  1956  1960  1963  1969  1972  1975  Year o f Swing  FIGURE 10:  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975, a f t e r c o n t r o l s on p a t t e r n o f c o n t e s t . Within-groups mean square s t a t i s t i c s which r e f l e c t the average l e v e l o f u n i f o r m i t y among c o n s t i t u e n c i e s s h a r i n g the same c o n t e s t p a t t e r n s . Averages from s e p a r a t e a n a l y s e s o f government p a r t y and main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y swings.  95 I t must be c o n c l u d e d occurred testant  i n spite slates.  variation Election  that trends  o f any i n c r e a s e  to uniformity  o f swing  i n the consistency  o f con-  T h e r e was a s u b s t a n t i a l d e c l i n e i n s w i n g  among c o n s t i t u e n c i e s s h a r i n g 2 contest  t h e same E l e c t i o n 1-  patterns.  The Argument that the Findings May Be A r t i f a c t u a l of Increased Uniformity of Base Levels of Party Support The  f o u r t h argument a b o u t t h e f i n d i n g s b e g i n s  ing t o the strong  negative  r e l a t i o n s h i p (which was demon-  strated  i n Chapter  a party  ( i t s E i s u p p o r t ) and i t s s w i n g .  gests  2) between t h e b a s e l e v e l o f s u p p o r t  a p a i r of connected p r o p o s i t i o n s .  extreme c o n s t i t u e n c y the  overall  swings e x p e r i e n c e d  heterogeneity  where t h e p a r t y  begins  incidence  reason,  This evidence  low Ei  from very  high  by a p a r t y ,  levels  spurious.  The f i n d i n g s may i n d i c a t e n o t h i n g  higher  levels i n  i n others.  If  s w i n g i n e a r l y e l e c t i o n s may be  that the operation  according  and t h u s  i n e a r l y e l e c t i o n s , then the r e s u l t s  less  differ  sug-  i s , f o r some  indicating  obvious fact  uniform  be  support  o f extreme base l e v e l p o i n t s  more p r e v a l e n t  of  The number o f  o f i t s swing, should  some c o n s t i t u e n c i e s a n d f r o m v e r y the  by p o i n t -  more t h a n t h e  of regression effects  t o t h e homogeneity o f base l e v e l s  will  of party  support. Two i n q u i r i e s were c a r r i e d alternative  interpretation.  out i n order  First,  to evaluate  this  t h e .a-aalysis o f t r e n d s i n  the u n i f o r m i t y of c o n s t i t u e n c y swings was  replicated  using  the p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure of swing o u t l i n e d i n Chapter We  developed  t h i s measure to circumvent  2.  the l i m i t s i n growth  (or d e c l i n e ) problem which seemedoto.;.explain^.partiallyi;Athe negative c o r r e l a t i o n between swing and base l e v e l of The new  support.  measure takes swing as a p r o p o r t i o n of the p a r t y ' s  "vote a t r i s k "  (its E  x  support)  i n cases where swing i s  n e g a t i v e , and as a p r o p o r t i o n of i t s "vote to gain ' (or 1  minus i t s Ei  support)  100%  i n cases where swing i s p o s i t i v e .  The problem o f absolute l i m i t s on growth and wastage of support  i s a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y a t i s s u e here.  A party's  swings are not l i k e l y to be uniform where i t s base  support  l e v e l s c l u s t e r at o p p o s i t e extremes because p o s s i b l e percentage p o i n t changes i n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s where base l e v e l s are low, vice versa.  Use  support  cannot be matched where l e v e l s are high of the p r o p o r t i o n a t e measure should  the argument t h a t our f i n d i n g s may base l e v e l e x t r e m i t y .  undercut  be spurious of trends i n  Non-uniformity  of p r o p o r t i o n a t e swings  should not be caused by h e t e r o g e n e i t y of extreme base The  and  levels.  r e s u l t s from a n a l y s i s of p r o p o r t i o n a t e swing which  are presented  i n Table 9 suggest  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n can be r e j e c t e d .  t h a t the f o u r t h a l t e r n a t i v e The  f a m i l i a r t r e n d towards  u n i f o r m i t y p e r s i s t s i n u n a l t e r e d form when the r a t e s of p r o p o r t i o n a t e swings are examined. d e v i a t i o n s f o r the post-1952 p e r i o d are s t i l l the magnitude of those  dispersal  The  standard  about t w o - t h i r d  f o r the pre-1952 p e r i o d .  TABLE 9:  HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF SWING UNIFORMITY ACROSS CONSTITUENCIES, 1903-1975, WHERE SWING IS MEASURED PROPORTIONATELY. PERIOD AVERAGES OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROPORTIONS OF CONSTITUENCY SWINGS WITHIN CERTAIN RANGES. AVERAGES ACROSS RESULTS OF ANALYSES OF GOVERNMENT PARTY AND MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY SWINGS, AND ACROSS ELECTIONS WITHIN PERIODS No. o f Swings Analyzed i n Period  Average S.D. Around Mean P r o p o r t i o n a t e Swing  1903-28  8  18.3  25.4  44.4  1933-52°  8  18.1  19.3  48.4  1953-63  8  11.6  40.9  67.2  1966-75  6  12.5  37.5  64.6  Period  3  o  Average Percentage o f C o n s t i t u e n c i e s W i t h i n : (±)5 Percentage P o i n t s o f Mean P r o p o r t i o n a t e Swing' 3  (±)10 Percentage P o i n t s o f Mean P r o p o r t i o n a t e Swing  The number o f swings i n a p e r i o d i s equal t o the number o f e l e c t i o n s times two (the number o f p a r t i e s whose swings were a n a l y z e d i n each e l e c t i o n ) . ' i f we were l o o k i n g a t swings i n one p a r t y ' s support i n one e l e c t i o n , and found a mean p r o p o r t i o n a t e swing a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s o f +20%, the f i g u r e i n the column would t e l l us the percentage o f cons t i t u e n c i e s i n which p r o p o r t i o n a t e swings t o t h a t p a r t y were between 15% and 25%. The f i g u r e s g i v e n , as noted, a r e averages a c r o s s the two major p a r t i e s and a s e r i e s o f e l e c t i o n s . In 1952 the government p a r t y swing was taken t o be the d i f f e r e n c e between C o a l i t i o n support i n 1949 and combined L i b e r a l and C o n s e r v a t i v e support i n 1952.  98 A simpler  t e s t of the a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n can  a p p l i e d by r e t u r n i n g to the percentage p o i n t measure  be  and  r e p l i c a t i n g the e a r l i e r a n a l y s i s on samples from which cases w i t h extreme E l e c t i o n 1 support l e v e l s have been removed. This honing was  done by dropping cases where the  E l e c t i o n 1 support was  below 20%  or above 60%.  party's I f there  is  more base l e v e l extremity i n e a r l y e l e c t i o n s , i t s hypothes i z e d e f f e c t s should be n e u t r a l i z e d when we  examine swings  from t h i s narrowed range of base l e v e l p o s i t i o n s . Figure  11 p l o t s the standard d e v i a t i o n s which r e f l e c t  the u n i f o r m i t y  across  t h i s reduced sample of  constituencies.  As u s u a l , the p o i n t s p l o t t e d are averages of r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n separate t e s t s on government p a r t y and main party  swings.  Figure 1937  Comparison w i t h the t r e n d  8 r e v e a l s a few  and  1945  minor d i f f e r e n c e s  e l e c t i o n s reverse  opposition  l i n e shown i n ( f o r example,  p o s i t i o n s r e l a t i v e to  another w h i l e remaining the e l e c t i o n s which f e a t u r e d heterogeneity  o f swing), but  i n general,  o f the chapter again p e r s i s t i n the e x p l a i n them away as  the one  extreme  the major f i n d i n g s  face of an attempt to  spurious.  The Argument that the Observed Trends Are an A r t i f a c t of Changes in the E l e c t o r a l . System  One t h a t the sociology  f i n a l question  must be d i r e c t e d at the  assumption  f i n d i n g s r e f l e c t broader changes i n the e l e c t o r a l of the p r o v i n c e .  Is i t p o s s i b l e t h a t these f i n d i n g s  99 14 ~  Year o f Swing  FIGURE 11:  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , 1903-1975, a f t e r e x c l u s i o n o f cases where base l e v e l o f s u p p o r t i s extreme. Standard d e v i a t i o n s around mean percentage p o i n t swings. Averages from s e p a r a t e a n a l y s e s o f government p a r t y and main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y swings. 3  3  T h a t i s , cases where base l e v e l o f s u p p o r t ( o r support i n the f i r s t e l e c t i o n o f the p a i r ) was below 20% or above 60% have been e x c l u d e d .  100 can  be  accounted  particular, with  f o r by  Legislated one  r u l e s governing  change i n r e g a r d s  suspect.  subsidize  For  constituency  cause l e v e l l i n g  uniformity.  c o u l d be  the  electoral  t o the  repre-  limit  or  expected  to  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , and  law  occurred  this  swing  r e j e c t e d s i n c e no during  such the  per-  relevant.  names s i n c e t h e  This  affiliation  less  importance of p a r t y importance of the  o f swing s h o u l d uniformity of  of party  lead  be  and  ballot  to  would  candidate  included,  more i m p o r t a n t ,  and  local there  swing. set aside.  affiliation  Changes  regarding  were l e g i s l a t e d  into  3 provincial  electoral  change was  more c o n s e q u e n t i a l  the  electoral  law  law  i n 1921  to provide  and  1939.  than the  The  first  f o r grouping  second  which  to  candi-  leader  local  i s not  the  law  expected  l a b e l s were a t t a c h e d  argument c a n n o t be  inclusion  on  Swings w o u l d be  Thus, when a f f i l i a t i o n  determination be  the  might a l s o  provisions of e l e c t o r a l  of party  where p a r t y  h e i g h t e n e d , and  should  form of the b a l l o t  inclusion  particularly  diminished.  the  finance  i n more u n i f o r m  be  Changes i n t h e  more u n i f o r m  dates' be  conduct of e l e c t i o n s ?  under a n a l y s i s .  concerning  be  can  In  associated  campaign s p e n d i n g m i g h t be  This p o s s i b i l i t y  Alterations to  the  to e l e c t o r a l  of spending across  change i n p r o v i n c i a l iod  changes?  example, c h a n g e s w h i c h w o u l d  development might i n t u r n ramify results.  to systemic  might i n c r e a s e d u n i f o r m i t y have been  changes i n the  sents  reference  amended  of candidates  by  101 party  i n the Vancouver C i t y  and V i c t o r i a  b o t h e l e c t e d m u l t i p l e members. to  Each group o f c a n d i d a t e s  or i n t e r e s t with  the candidates'  Wholesale i n t r o d u c t i o n o f party came w i t h altering Act  t h e new p r o v i n c i a l the s i t u a t i o n  provided  sented all  was  other  names.  l a b e l s onto the b a l l o t  election  law o f 1939.  Without  i n t h e m u l t i p l e member r i d i n g s ,  that the " p o l i t i c a l  by e a c h c a n d i d a t e constituencies.  party  or interest"  this  repre-  w o u l d be p r i n t e d on t h e b a l l o t i n T h i s p r o v i s i o n remained i n e f f e c t  a l l e l e c t i o n s f r o m 1941 onwards. It  the  i s , o f course,  observed trends  this do  r i d i n g s which  be i n d i c a t e d by p l a c e m e n t o f t h e name o f t h e p o l i t i c a l  party  in  City  simple  change.  impossible  C e r t a i n l y a l l the trend  taken place effect iate  r a t h e r than gradual.  law s h o u l d  While t h i s  between t h e u n i f o r m i t y  a d d i t i o n a l important  uniformity levels  immed-  f a c t o r no  o f swing, t h e d i f -  m a r k i n g t h e 1945, 1949  forces operated  after  1952 i n d i c a t e  t o b r i n g about  formity.  T h i s a l t e r n a t i v e would c l e a r l y  to  i f t h e changes t o a p a r t y b a l l o t  reject  have  have been  systemic  1952 s w i n g s , and t h e l e v e l s p r e v a i l i n g  that  should  plateau  i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e change we a r e e x a m i n i n g — t h e  doubt c o n t r i b u t e d t o i n c r e a s e d  and  l a i d out  o f a new  Such a d e v e l o p m e n t , we t h i n k ,  o f t h e change i n e l e c t o r a l  ferences  lines  f o r by  i n u n i f o r m i t y o f swing a f t e r t h e  B u t none show t h e i m m e d i a t e a r r i v a l  of uniformity.  t o which  i n s w i n g u n i f o r m i t y were a c c o u n t e d  i n d i c a t e a sharp i n c r e a s e  1930's.  t o know t h e e x t e n t  be more  uni-  difficult  had taken  place  102 between 1952 and 1953 o r , i n o t h e r w o r d s , a t t h e t h r e s h o l d p o i n t m a r k i n g t h e a d v e n t o f t h e modern p l a t e a u  A Further Within  Test: Uniformity Constituencies  The  argument t h a t t h e d e c l i n e i n s w i n g v a r i a t i o n  c a u s e d by a l e v e l l i n g  of contest  munities  within  t h e same c o n s t i t u e n c y .  correct,  then the observed trends  o f d i f f e r e n c e s across  increase  should  Since  causes other  than those  us t o t e s t  the trend  constituency-related trends dates  province. across,  given  operated.  uniformity  levels  p r o p o s i t i o n s which  F o r example, t h e o b s e r v e d i n the q u a l i t y of candi-  parties i n different  parts of the  i s a development which would  but not w i t h i n , c o n s t i t u e n c i e s .  p a r t s o f c o n s t i t u e n c i e s have a l w a y s f a c e d so  that  t o homogenization of other  factors.  .Again/, j t h i s  argument  certain corollary  m i g h t stem f r o m a l e v e l l i n g representing  any l e v e l l i n g  u n i f o r m i t y would argue  posited i n this  i n uniformity  communities  Evidence of a generalized  Examination of within-constituency also allows  levelling  have h a d no i m p a c t on w i t h i n -  u n i f o r m i t y o f swing.  i n within-constituency  com-  I f t h e argument i s  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s f a c e d t h e same b a l l o t ,  constituency  link  i n swing a c r o s s  r e s u l t e d from a  constituencies.  of minor p a r t y presence  was  d i f f e r e n c e s c a n be f u r t h e r  e x a m i n e d t h r o u g h an a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e  within  of uniformity.  differences i n factors like  candidate  b e n c y , w h i c h may e x p l a i n v a r i a t i o n  Voters  level  i n different  t h e same  ballot,  q u a l i t y and i n c u m -  i n swing a c r o s s c o n s t i t u -  103  encies, cies.  should An  relate  increase  have t o be across  not  to differences within  i n within-constituency  c a u s e d by  factors other  uniformity  than those  v a r i a t i o n was  samples o f n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n  levelling  studied using  communities.  constituency  concern  i s with  s e r v i n g as  trends  the  i n the magnitude o f the  mean s q u a r e  within-constituency  statistic  average across  results  government and  main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y  If  the  then the periods  obtained  plotted i n Figure  i n Table, 10,  should  wide d e c l i n e i n v a r i a n c e exact  opposite  obtains;  i d e n t i c a l with trend  those  i s apparent.  uency v a r i a t i o n than that The and fact  1972  show no  the  f o r swings b e f o r e within-constituency  1966  component.  The  average we  analyses  of  summarized  evidence  the  1952  of the In  trend  but  are  the  for  province-  fact,  lines  valid  are  familiar  the not downward  of w i t h i n - c o n s t i t -  i s considerably  smaller  1952. uniformity  elections i s especially  t h a t the  and  average l e v e l  f o r swings a f t e r  within-groups  i t s corollaries  observed e a r l i e r . in detail  Our  swings.  12,  shown e a r l i e r , And  1972,  Once a g a i n  i n separate  a l t e r n a t i v e argument o r  results  and  i n d i c a t e s the  u n i f o r m i t y o f swing.  two  variance  independent v a r i a b l e .  (or, t h a t i s , w i t h i n - c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ) v a r i a n c e within-groups  the  Analysis of  a p p l i e d t o s w i n g s f o r e l e c t i o n s between 1933  with  would  constituencies.  Within-constituency  was  constituen-  redistribution  obtaining  noteworthy increased  i n the  in light the  of  19 69 the  geographical  104  20  I  1937  1941  1945  1949  1952  1953  I  1956  I  1960  I  1963  1969  1972  Year o f Swing FIGURE 12:  Trends i n swing u n i f o r m i t y a c r o s s n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n communities w i t h i n the same c o n s t i t u e n c y , 1933-1972. Changes i n t h e w i t h i n - c o n s t i t u e n c y mean square s t a t i s t i c which r e f l e c t s average u n i f o r m i t y w i t h i n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . Averages from s e p a r a t e a n a l y s e s o f government p a r t y and main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y swings. R e s u l t s f o r two samples o f communities s e l e c t e d by a p p l y i n g d i f f e r e n t s i z e c r i t e r i a . 3  Both samples were drawn from the b a s i c community sample o u t l i n e d i n Chapter 2. They d i f f e r i n terms o f the s i z e o f communities e x c l u d e d . F o r an e x p l a n a t i o n , see t h e t e x t , pp. 82-83.  TABLE 10:  HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF SWING UNIFORMITY ACROSS COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE SAME CONSTITUENCY, 1933-1972. PERIOD AVERAGES OF THE WITHIN-CONSTITUENCY MEAN SQUARE STATISTIC WHICH INDICATES AVERAGE UNIFORMITY WITHIN CONSTITUENCIES. RESULTS FROM ANALYSES OF TWO SAMPLES OF COMMUNITIES 3  Sampled Communities w i t h Fewer than 35 V o t e r s E x c l u d e d from the Sample Average  Period  Witl lin-Constituenc  Government P a r t y Swings  Main Oppos. P a r t y Swings  :y  M.S.  for:  Average Both P a r t i e s  Sampled Communities w i t h Fewer than 100 V o t e r s Excluded from the Sample Average  With in-Constituenc  Government P a r t y Swings  y M.S.  for:  Main Oppos. P a r t y Swings  Average Both P a r t i e s  183.6  165.1  174.4  123.8  102.9  113.4  1945-52°  178.9  154.2  166.6  78.5  73.4  76.0  1953-63  109.3  88.5  98.9  67.4  50.2  58.8  1966-72  106.5  80.6  93.6  68.9  54.4  61.6  1933-41  b  Both samples were drawn from t h e b a s i c community sample o u t l i n e d i n Chapter 2. They d i f f e r i n terms o f the s i z e o f communities e x c l u d e d . F o r an e x p l a n a t i o n , see the t e x t , pp. 82-83. In 1941 t h e CCF was t r e a t e d as the main o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y . In 1952 t h e government p a r t y swing was taken t o be the d i f f e r e n c e between C o a l i t i o n support i n 1949 and combined L i b e r a l and C o n s e r v a t i v e support i n 1952.  106 size  and  encies ments  diversity  o f many o f t h e  studied here. in  the  The  trend  Similkameen area  is illustrated of the  swings o f seven communities w i t h constituency (a s t a n d a r d party  nonmetropolitan  100  developThe  1941  voters  in  o f S i m i l k a m e e n were c o n s i d e r a b l y more deviation of  15.4  s w i n g ) , t h a n were t h e  around the  19 72  same s i z e  constituency  of Boundary-Similkameen  around the  criterion)  sampled  13  disparate  communities  from the  (a s t a n d a r d  mean government p a r t y  the  mean government  swings o f  (meeting the  o f 4.3  by  province.  more t h a n  constitu-  larger  deviation  swing).  Conclusion This ation  chapter  of h i s t o r i c a l  patterns. twentieth of  reported  The  encies  Our  and  electoral  brought  studies of geographically  localism.  chapter  Modern l e v e l s  explained  which, w h i l e  for increased  resulting  regarded  i n the  as  the  uniformity  of d e c l i n i n g  bearing swing  appear The  on  to  second  a s e r i e s of  uniformity.  developments c o u l d  be  f r o m some s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d  distinct.  swing  scattered constitu-  evidence  perhaps connected t o general  ments, c o u l d be  explor-  u n f o l d i n g of  of uniformity  results  argued t h a t the  away as  i n our  the mid-century p o i n t .  presented  hypotheses about reasons Each h y p o t h e s i s  strong  steps  Columbia e l e c t o r a l  sharp i n c r e a s e s  communities p r o v i d e  of the  initial  change i n B r i t i s h  have b e e n r e a c h e d a f t e r part  the  f i n d i n g s i n d i c a t e t h a t the  century  swing.  on  societal  In r e j e c t i n g  change  developthese  107  hypotheses we trends  add  c r e d i b i l i t y to the n o t i o n t h a t the observed  r e f l e c t important changes i n the e l e c t o r a l  of the province  which are r e l a t e d  sociology  to broader s o c i e t a l  and  p o l i t i c a l developments. We  now  t u r n to c o n s i d e r a t i o n of three  developments which may The  swing p a t t e r n i n g  account f o r the t r e n d to  uniformity.  evidence s e t out i n t h i s chapter i s c o n s i s t e n t with  the  argument t h a t the t r e n d was  unpatterned, but evidence t h a t  p a t t e r n i n g d i d not i n c r e a s e  i s needed before  can be  accepted.  t h a t argument  108  Footnotes "''The s w i n g s examined i n e a c h p e r i o d were as f o l l o w s : f o r t h e 1903-28 p e r i o d , L i b e r a l and C o n s e r v a t i v e s w i n g s i n 1907, 1909, 1920 a n d 1928; f o r t h e 1933-52 p e r i o d , Liberal and CCF s w i n g s i n 1937, C o a l i t i o n and CCF s w i n g s i n 1945, 1949 a n d 1952 ( w i t h C o a l i t i o n s w i n g i n t h e 1952 e l e c t i o n t a k e n as t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n C o a l i t i o n s u p p o r t i n 1949, and t h e combined s u p p o r t o f t h e L i b e r a l s a n d C o n s e r v a t i v e s i n 1952); f o r t h e 1953-63 p e r i o d , S o c i a l C r e d i t a n d CCF-NDP s w i n g s i n 1953, 1956, 1960 and 1963; and f o r t h e 1966-75 p e r i o d , S o c i a l C r e d i t and NDP s w i n g s i n 1969, 1972 and 1975. 2 The s w i n g s examined i n e a c h p e r i o d were as f o l l o w s : f o r t h e 1933-41 p e r i o d , L i b e r a l a n d CCF s w i n g s i n 1937 and 1941; f o r t h e 1945-52 p e r i o d , C o a l i t i o n and CCF s w i n g s i n 1949 and 1952 ( s e e n o t e 1 above c o n c e r n i n g c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e 1952 C o a l i t i o n s w i n g ) ; f o r t h e 1953-63 p e r i o d , Social C r e d i t and CCF-NDP s w i n g s i n 1953, 1956, 1960 and 1963; and f o r t h e 1966-72 p e r i o d , S o c i a l C r e d i t a n d NDP s w i n g s i n 1969 and 1972. 3 See, B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Statutes, 1921 ( F i r s t S e s s i o n ) , c h a p . 17, "An A c t t o amend t h e ' P r o v i n c i a l E l e c t i o n s A c t ' , " S e c t i o n 9; and B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Statutes, 1939, c h a p . 16, "An A c t R e s p e c t i n g E l e c t i o n s o f Members o f t h e L e g i s l a t i v e A s s e m b l y , " S e c t i o n s 88(4) a n d 8 8 ( 5 ) . See a l s o B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Revised Statutes, 1960, c h a p . 306, " P r o v i n c i a l E l e c t i o n s A c t , " Section 86(4).  CHAPTER 4 PATTERNING OF  This  chapter  i n v e s t i g a t i o n of is  SWING BY  reports  ELECTORAL COMPETITIVENESS  the  first  part  changes i n e l e c t o r a l  of a  swing p a t t e r n s  d e s i g n e d to a s c e r t a i n whether p a t t e r n i n g  with  increased  uniformity  been mapped r e q u i r e s agents. will  be  The  first  explored  of  swing.  The  constituency  ment t h a t e l e c t o r a l  layer  Our all  periods,  to apply seat  an  and  the  or  possible  competitiveness,  swing.  premises about the  effects  the  supports the  The  existence  o f m o d e r n i z a t i o n on  competing p a r t i e s w i l l strategy—a  advantageous d i s t r i b u t i o n  of  differential  assumed t h a t  constituency  possibly  status  the  of the  plan  resources  electoral  b a s e d on  success.  109  or  pro-  i s that, an the  to d i f f e r e n t  competitiveness seat  and  strategy.  perceive  S e c o n d , i t i s assumed t h a t e l e c t o r a l  correlate with  first  second c o n s i s t s of  most f u n d a m e n t a l a s s u m p t i o n  electoral  argu-  on  m a x i m i z a t i o n w h i c h embodies d e c i s i o n s a b o u t t h e  uenceis.  has  patterning  s a f e t y took  a determinant of  strategy, while  about the first  as  general  nature of party positions  competitiveness  importance  includes  coincided  here.  A t w o - l a y e r e d network o f assumptions  increased  changes  which  s t r a t e g y which  examination of three  of these,  three-pronged  in  incentive goal  of  most constit-  strategy  will  Third, i t i s  safety,  (as government o r  and  opposition  110 held)  will  influencing  affect  resources.  ments c o n c e r n i n g about the The  d e c i s i o n s about the  histories  two  campaign d i r e c t o r s o f t h e  encies  according  included  t h a t p a r t i e s do  t o degree of  judge-  information  a r e most a r g u a b l e .  organizers  concluded  b a s e d on  vote  ridings.  on  parties,  subject  be  whose r e s e a r c h and  the  will  of  assumptions  of  i t i s assumed t h a t  competitiveness  electoral latter  Finally,  distribution  Lovink,  interviews with two  eight  major n a t i o n a l  attempt t o rank c o n s t i t u -  safety."*"  But,  according  to  Lovink: N e i t h e r p a r t y bases t h i s r a t i n g s o l e l y on a s e a t ' s e l e c t o r a l h i s t o r y ; each a l s o takes account o f the e s t i m a t e d r e l a t i v e appeal o f the p a r t y ' s c a n d i d a t e , the c o n d i t i o n o f the l o c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , and o f any o t h e r r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t may be a v a i l a b l e ( f o r example, data on s h i f t s i n the socio-economic make-up o f the l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n ) . A l l respondents a l s o agreed i n a s s i g n i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e importance t o the q u a l i t y o f the l o c a l candidate.  Further  r e s e a r c h would p r o b a b l y  or b y - e l e c t i o n r e s u l t s cies  as  i n contiguous  survey  poll  or s i m i l a r  strategists.  e l e c t o r a l h i s t o r y i s an r e m a i n a b o u t how  party  Lovink  important  be  taken  a l s o n o t e s t h a t even i f  consideration,  questions  s t r a t e g i s t s w e i g h more and  i n coming t o a r e c k o n i n g  results,  constituen-  e x a m p l e s o f a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r s w h i c h may  i n t o a c c o u n t by  results  suggest  less  of a constituency's  recent  safe-  3 ness. Some measure o f v a l i d i t y the  results  of a study  i s accorded  of B r i t i s h  our  assumptions  C o l u m b i a highway  by  expendi-  4  t u r e s by  J o h n Munro.  Munro t e s t e d t h e  r e l a t i o n s h i p between  Ill  c o n s t i t u e n c y margin of v i c t o r y expenditures  and  highways was  s e v e r a l o t h e r v a r i a b l e s i n a model w h i c h  was  in five  t w o - y e a r p e r i o d s between  With the e f f e c t s  account,  of  Margin of v i c t o r y  spending  1969.  levels  across constituencies.  included with t e s t e d on  and  of other v a r i a b l e s taken  the margin of v i c t o r y  v a r i a b l e was  a  In a l l t h r e e p e r i o d s t h e  expected  direction—more  stituencies  than  constituency, stituency, not  the  cantly  was  expected  on  spent  so on.  r i d i n g was related  1961-63  r e l a t i o n s h i p was  the b a s i s o f the  and  i n the  i n more c o m p e t i t i v e  t h e number o f r e g i s t e r e d  and  into  reasonably  good p r e d i c t o r i n t h r e e o f t h e p e r i o d s — 1 9 5 4 - 5 6 , 1967-69.  1954  s i z e of  conthe  v e h i c l e s i n the  con-  A v a r i a b l e which i n d i c a t e d whether  h e l d by  a Cabinet  to expenditures  i n the  M i n i s t e r , was 1954-56 and  or  signifi1964-66  periods. There i s , then,  some e v i d e n c e  that British  governments i n the post-1952 e r a d i d , a t l e a s t b a s e one  instrument  of electoral  about d i f f e r e n c e s i n the stituencies.  And  We ization sition  of  can on  perceptions  t h e r e a r e grounds f o r the i n the  r i d i n g was  surmise  of  con-  that  a d o p t e d as  one  competitiveness. now  the  t o be  sporadically,  s a f e t y or competitiveness  p r e v i o u s margin o f v i c t o r y indicator  strategy.on  Columbia  t u r n t o arguments a b o u t t h e application  of electoral  impact  strategy.  tested i s that successful application  s h o u l d have i n c r e a s e d .  Modernization  should  o f modernThe  propo-  of strategy  have e n h a n c e d  112  the a b i l i t y of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s to " t a r g e t " e l e c t o r a l resources and i n c r e a s e d the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t p a r t y  resources  would be d i r e c t e d towards the r i d i n g s where they would achieve the most b e n e f i t .  Communications developments are  c e n t r a l to t h i s argument.  With improvement i n  province-wide  communication and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n networks, p a r t i e s  should  have found i t e a s i e r t o apply c e n t r a l l y d i r e c t e d campaign s t r a t e g y based on t a r g e t i n g of r e s o u r c e s .  For example, as  movement about the p r o v i n c e became e a s i e r , more e f f e c t i v e use should have been made of p a r t y l e a d e r s ' campaign time. This argument i s very s p e c u l a t i v e and o b v i o u s l y , other f a c e t s of modernization  suggest  For example, modernization  may  contradictory expectations. have i n c r e a s e d the  relative  importance of u n i v e r s a l i s t i c , i n d i v i s i b l e government outputs, and magnified the amount of p o l i t i c a l a d v e r t i s i n g based on a "shotgun" approach.  In t h i s chapter, q u i t e to the c o n t r a r y ,  we propose t h a t there should have been an i n c r e a s e i n the s t r a t e g i c d i s t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t o r a l and  governmental  resources. •Methodology  Munro's f i n d i n g s suggest  t h a t a simple margin o f v i c t o r y  i n d i c a t o r should serve as a v a l i d measure of  strategists'  p e r c e p t i o n s concerning c o n s t i t u e n c y s a f e t y .  A measure of  s a f e t y which takes i n t o account margins i n s e v e r a l p r e v i o u s e l e c t i o n s , i n a d d i t i o n to evidence  about the r i d i n g ' s past  113  vote by  variability  Lovink,  but  perceptions i m p l i e d by  and  there  the  where t h e r e  and  measure.^  At  utilized  exist  1965  frequent our  any  measure o f  first  will  rely  How  on  should  a simple  that  relate  tive.  be  should  illustrated  Greatest  where t h e r e  seat  an  an  to t h i s  should  uppermost i n the  An  be  use  the  an  for  independent v a r i a b l e for a l l periods,  c o u l d not  The  be  a  applied.  measure.  previous simple  election  be  answer i s  margin o f  government p a r t y ' s  victory. perspec-  be  devoted to r i d i n g s  probability  of  losing  where t h e r e  i s the  opposition seat.  assumption,  the  or the  size  be  p r o p o s i t i o n that, given  a  Whether  government  the party,  margin  strategists.  developed to the  seat  greatest  of v i c t o r y  c a l c u l a t i o n s of  a l t e r n a t i v e measure s h o u l d  account of the  after  i t i s important  i n the  opposition party  according  applied  should  to those  of capturing  i s h e l d by  the  campaign e f f o r t  and  occur  n e g a t i v e l y to the  i s the h i g h e s t  presently held, possibility  Since  effort?  using  o n l y be  of  b o u n d a r y c h a n g e s were  Lovink's  margin of v i c t o r y  index  r u n s u n b r o k e n by e l e c t o r -  margin of v i c t o r y  to party  T h i s can  complex c a l c u l u s  Such r u n s do  date.  on  developed  strategists'  r a t e , Lovink's  t h a t we  expected to r e l a t e effort  that  measured i n a p a r a l l e l way  safety styled  been  here because i t can  comparison o f e f f e c t s be  the  multiple election  t o the  has  evidence  r e d i s t r i b u t i o n s but  prior  w h i c h can  We  is little  boundary r e d i s t r i b u t i o n s .  1938  patterns,  o f s a f e t y a r e b a s e d on  s a f e t y c a n n o t be  al  turnover  take  same m a r g i n i n  114  government and o p p o s i t i o n party w i l l  apply  it  holds.  Where m a r g i n o f v i c t o r y  is  that  will by  greater  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , t h e government  their  of  1  opposition  to retaining  seats.  seats  opposition  held  they  precariously  devote t o c a p t u r i n g the  T h i s may be b e c a u s e  precarious  i n s t r a t e g y making, o r because t h e t o reach  the ears  than are the appeals o f those c h a l l e n g i n g i n  held  i s that  which  the assumption  that i s , that  o f s u c h i n c u m b e n t s a r e more l i k e l y  strategists  tion  i s small,  own members t h a n t h e y w i l l  i n c u m b e n t s have a r o l e pleas  to the constituencies  governments a r e c o n s e r v a t i v e ;  d e v o t e more e f f o r t  winable^  effort  seats.  Where m a r g i n s a r e l a r g e , t h e assump-  governments a r e i n c l i n e d  t o r e w a r d and  punish.  That i s , the c o n s t i t u e n c y  w h i c h handed t h e government a l a r g e  plurality  election will  (and  i n the previous  thus,  i n o u r s e n s e , more e f f o r t )  s e a t s , which w i l l Figure  be p u n i s h e d o r  13 h e l p s  the  t o p p a r t , we  ing  from s a f e o p p o s i t i o n  part, the  f o r these  find  to c l a r i f y  four  government e f f o r t  of the assumptions stated, safe  provides  than safe  opposition  ignored.  t h e s e new a s s u m p t i o n s .  four hypothetical to safe  s e a t s , we  r e c e i v e more b e n e f i t s  constituencies  government.  find  In rang-  In t h e bottom  l i n e s which  represent  w h i c h w o u l d be p r e d i c t e d on t h e b a s i s  j u s t noted.  The argument, as s o f a r  no g u i d a n c e a b o u t c o m p a r a t i v e e f f o r t  government and c o m p e t i t i v e  opposition  seats.  i n the  In the  d i a g r a m , and i n t h e measure d e v e l o p e d b e l o w , i t i s assumed that  the l a t t e r  type o f constituency  will  g e t more  effort  115  20%  Safe Opposition Seat  Safe Government Seat  !H  o n-> o •rH  >  o fl •H  Cn U rd S Competitive Govt. Seat  Competitive Oppos. Seat  1%  -p MH O 4->  SH  O  >H IH  W  B >1 Q H-> 6  +  M  CM  -P  •H  0Cg)  PH  >  U  +  (^1H) 0M)C  TJ  +  O  o  Safe Opposition Seat  FIGURE 13:  Competitive Opposition Seat  Competitive Government Seat  Safe Government Seat  Diagram d e p i c t i n g assumptions about p a r t y e f f o r t i n government and o p p o s i t i o n r i d i n g s . Predicted-'.party e f f o r t i n four h y p o t h e t i c a l r i d i n g s varying i n competitiveness.  116 f r o m t h e government. The  f o l l o w i n g equation  function of previous produces e f f o r t  Government Party E f f o r t  For tor  scores  like  f o r government  i n order  to reflect  s t a t u s , and  those p l o t t e d i n F i g u r e  A  as a  13:  -,/: . „.—• vMargin o f V i c t o r y  can s e t the weight fac-  and a t 1 f o r o p p o s i t i o n  seats  the assumption t h a t  governments  i n the c o n s t i t u e n c i e s they hold.  With  a s s u m p t i o n we g e t : For  the safe o p p o s i t i o n  Effort  For  the competitive  Effort  For  For  =  the competitive  Effort  The c h o i c e  seat,  1  X  =  opposition  =  i  t h e s a f e government  Effort  order  m a r g i n and s e a t  Weight F a c t o r (higher f o r government p a r t y )  make 50% more e f f o r t this  victory  t h e s a k e o f i l l u s t r a t i o n we  a t 1.5  seats,  _  t r e a t s campaign e f f o r t  =  seat,  x  =  1 ;  seat,  1.5  X  —^— /20  government  =  .22 ;  1.5  X  =  .33 ;  seat,  =  1.5 .  o f w e i g h t f a c t o r s must o b v i o u s l y  be a r b i t r a r y .  t o c o v e r a range o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s , measures o f p a r t y  In  117 e f f o r t based on I f we  1.5:1, 1.2:1, and  2:1  a successful  e l e c t o r a l strategy,  ment swing should r e l a t e n e g a t i v e l y v i c t o r y v a r i a b l e , and  to the  would i n d i c a t e t h a t the o p p o s i t i o n e l e c t o r a l strategy.  simple margin of  which s i g n a l s whether the  strength  argument has  A f i n a l methodological p o i n t Given the  reverse d i r e c t i o n  party successfully  I t i s , then, the  controlled.  then govern-  p o s i t i v e l y to the measures of p a r t y  S i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s i n the  should be  tried.  continue to assume t h a t i t i s the government p a r t y  which a p p l i e s  effort.  r a t i o s w i l l be  any  association  validity.  concerns v a r i a b l e s  which  r e l a t i o n s h i p between swing  and  base l e v e l support which was  and  given the h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y of a p o s i t i v e  between margin of v i c t o r y and  of  applies  demonstrated i n Chapter relationship  base support, i t seems  latter variable.  might be  I t i s important to remember, then,  we  are r e a l l y l o o k i n g  Otherwise,  advis-  able to c o n t r o l the spurious.  f o r evidence t h a t  correlations  e l e c t i o n support l e v e l of the p a r t y i n those  first  seats.  Findings  The  reader who  i s dubious about any  assumptions u n d e r l y i n g the h y p o t h e s i s and no  that  swing i s g r e a t e r i n  c o m p e t i t i v e seats than would be expected given the  The  2,  surprises  i n g the  i n Table 11.  The  or a l l of  measures w i l l f i n d  p a r t i a l correlations  r e l a t i o n s h i p between government p a r t y swing  measures of expected p a r t y e f f o r t , are  the  reflectand  s i g n i f i c a n t i n only a  118  TABLE 11:  TRENDS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SWINGS IN GOVERNMENT PARTY SUPPORT AND ASSUMED PARTY EFFORT: CONSTITUENCIES, 1903-1975. PARTIAL CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS WITH BASE LEVEL OF SUPPORT CONTROLLED Party  Swing Election  E f f o r t as P r e d i c t e d from Margin o f V i c t o r y (in 1 s t e l e c tion of pair)  E f f o r t Measures  E f f o r t as P r e d i c t e d by Assumptions About D i f f e r e n c e s i n E f f o r t Between Government and O p p o s i t i o n S e a t s . Measures Based on the F o l l o w i n g Government Seat: O p p o s i t i o n Seat E f f o r t R a t i o s : 1.5:1  1.2:1  2.0:1  .31*  .32*  .28  1903-07  -.27  1907-09  .07  -.12  -.08  -.15  1916-20  .08  -.23  -.15  -.31*  1924-28  .14  .08  .09  .06  1933-37  .24  -.26  -.24  -.26  1941-45  -.04  -.17  -.16  -.17  1945-49  .11  -.07  -.10  -.03  1949-52  -.12  -.15  -.12  -.18  1952-53  .02  .23  .23  .22  1953-56  -.29*  .34*  .31*  .33*  1956-60  -.03  .08  .05  .12  1960-63  .18  -.18  -.16  -.19  1966-69  -.04  -.00  1969-72  -.21  .16  .12  .20  1972-75  .19  -.07  -.15  .01  S i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l : *.05  .01 .  -.03  119 few  cases.  And  there  constituencies'  i s no  sign that  a connection  s t r a t e g i c a l i m p o r t a n c e and  their  more l i k e l y i n modern e l e c t i o n s .  The  strong  interspersed  r e l a t i o n s h i p s show up  century.  In  and  strong  1972,  1907  constituencies ing  to our  attention 1937  and  ceding  e l e c t i o n s i n which across  arid t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t  w h i c h were more c o m p e t i t i v e  a s s u m p t i o n s , more l i k e l y from the  b a s e d on  According  swing i s  the  in  1953  p r o - g o v e r n m e n t s w i n g s were more l i k e l y  h i n t t h a t the  strategy  1956,  are  between  government. opposition  The had  considerations  and  thus,  accord-  t o have r e c e i v e d  special  r e s u l t s f o r 1920  some s u c c e s s of  in  in  constituency  and  applying safety.  t o Munro's a n a l y s i s o f h i g h w a y s e x p e n d i t u r e s  the  five  constituencies  e l e c t i o n s between 1956  and  1969,  d i d r e c e i v e more a t t e n t i o n , a t  pre-  competitive  least in  the  f o r m o f highway s p e n d i n g , p r i o r t o t h o s e o f  1956,  1963  and  1969.  attention  paid  Our  findings indicate that  off  f o r the  the  e f f e c t seems, i f a n y t h i n g ,  what was  government o n l y  intended,  seems t o have had We  can  support. tions may  i n the  extra  1956  election.  t o have b e e n t h e  i n 19 69  the  bias  in  In  1963  opposite  of  expenditure  e f f e c t at a l l . a b o u t why  It i s possible  the  t h a t we  h y p o t h e s i s has  erred  i n our  target  i n t o account  resources,  i n designing  t h o s e germane t o s t r a t e g i s t s .  our  but  not  initial  nature or consequences of p a r t y  t h a t p a r t i e s do  t i o n s taken reflect  no  speculate  about the  be  while  the  the  assump-  strategy. considera-  m e a s u r e s may  In o t h e r  gained  words,  not our  It  120 measures o f t h e about l i k e l y accurate. of  instances  has  that  but  that  precarious,  bring  uniformity,  an  there  not  easier  was  feel  may  help  safely  opposition  t o e x p l a i n why increase  a b o u t an  i t may  about  ensconced party  strate-  by  be  true  Perhaps  w i t h modern p o l i t i c s  elec-  to  d i d make p o s s i b l e a  shotgun  t h a t p a r t i e s were •  apply  to blanket  did  that  unpatterned trend  i s probably true  communications.  appli-  modernization  i t a l s o made more p o s s i b l e  That i s , while  then  i s espe-  in patterning  notes that while modernization  i t also  hold  argument, w h i c h c o n v e r g e s w i t h  (or more a f f o r d a b l e )  associated  the  another.  predicted  One  their  feel  increasingly better position to  influencing  fact  such i n c o n s i s t e n t  when t h e y  in speculating  s t r a t e g i c way,  in  P e r h a p s government p a r t i e s w o r r y  a t a r g e t i n g approach, approach.  are  m a x i m i z i n g s t r a t e g i e s were a p p l i e d ,  but  about the  made e a r l i e r  assumptions  p e r h a p s government and  situation.  type strategy  t e s t s have c o r r e c t l y i d e n t i f i e d  u s u a l l y n e u t r a l i z e one  toral  in  a priori  a b o u t why  Numerous i d e a s not  the  s t r a t e g i e s when t h e y  Or,  this  be  assumed e f f e c t s .  strategy.  i n power.  not  a c t u a l l y been a p p l i e d ,  where s e a t  distributive  gies  t h e s e p r e d i c t i o n s may postulated  our  speculate  cation of  cially  and  the  accept that  sound, and  can  effort,  predictions  i s that  have t h e  I f we  we  party  Another p o s s i b i l i t y  strategy  does n o t  independent v a r i a b l e represent  resources  that the  they  found i t  province  influence  in a  with  campaigns  have more s p i l l o v e r  effects  121 from one area t o another and thus n e u t r a l i z e attempts t o t a r g e t resources.  Perhaps p a r t i c u l a r i s t i c government outputs  have become r e l a t i v e l y l e s s important compared t o u n i v e r s a l ones which, by d e f i n i t i o n , cannot be d i r e c t e d a t c e r t a i n constituencies.  F i n a l l y , i t may be t h a t  changes which i n c r e a s e d  communication  the c a p a c i t y o f p a r t i e s t o apply  c e n t r a l l y d i r e c t e d s t r a t e g i e s were n e u t r a l i z e d i n t h e i r e f f e c t by decreased s o c i e t a l t o l e r a n c e age it  and f a v o u r i t i s m .  o f government p a t r o n -  Contemporary governments may f i n d  that  i s much l e s s acceptable to s p o i l some c o n s t i t u e n c i e s  with  spending programs w h i l e i g n o r i n g  others.  While more a n a l y s i s , and a d i f f e r e n t type o f a n a l y s i s , would be r e q u i r e d  i n order t o get t o the bottom o f the ques-  t i o n s r a i s e d by the above s p e c u l a t i o n ,  the r e s u l t s  i n t h i s chapter do serve our l i m i t e d purposes. us t o s e t a s i d e the f i r s t p r o p o s a l terns o f e l e c t o r a l swing.  reported  They  allow  concerning ascendant p a t -  Our c o n c l u s i o n  has t o be t e n t a t i v e  s i n c e the t e s t r e s t s on a network o f assumptions, but patt e r n i n g by e l e c t o r a l competitiveness does not help t o account f o r the trend t o swing  uniformity.  Footnotes J. Canadian X  372;  A. A. L o v i n k , " I s C a n a d i a n P o l i t i c s t o o C o m p e t i t i v e Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science V I (September 1973):  2  Ibid.  3  Ibid.,  p p . 372-73.  4 J o h n Munro, "Highways i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a : E c o n o m i c s and P o l i t i c s , " Canadian Journal of Economics V I I I (May 1975)  192-204.  Lovink,  pp. 360-61.  "Is Canadian P o l i t i c s  too Competitive,"  CHAPTER 5 THE  PATTERNING OF  BY  In t h i s t e r n i n g by trend and  examine t h e i d e a t h a t  socio-economic  follow,  tion.  SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMPOSITION  c h a p t e r we  t o swing  ELECTORAL SWING  uniformity.  c o m p o s i t i o n may As  find  that  account  the e f f e c t s  the l o c a l l y  determined  of  moderniza-  characterized  the e a r l y  were s t r o n g l y  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o m p o s i t i o n , t h e n we  helped to account  f o r the t r e n d to u n i f o r m i t y  our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of m o d e r n i z a t i o n ' s impact  precede  swings  p e r i o d were r e p l a c e d by  which  swings  which  will  and  on  pat-  f o r the  i n the chapters which  the goal i s to c l a r i f y  I f we  increased  have  improved  political  influence processes. A general outline  o f the i n t e n d e d a n a l y s i s  by t h e f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s . correlates Second,  o f swing  ing class about  and m i d d l e  class  t o compare s w i n g s  of specific  Instead,  on e v i d e n c e a b o u t  and t h e p r o p o r t i o n  characteristics.  the e f f e c t s  ecological  of voter aggregates.  communities.  p a t t e r n i n g must be b a s e d  certain  examine t h e  a r e n o t homogeneous s o , t o t a k e  are not i n a p o s i t i o n  t i o n between s w i n g  we  a c r o s s samples  the aggregates  example, we  First,  i s provided  Third,  the  variables  in different  123  correla-  o f an a g g r e g a t e  variables,  elections.  Using  having  identify  but  t o compare t h e s t r e n g t h o f a s s o c i a t i o n between s w i n g background  i n work-  inferences  the goal i s not to  socio-economic  an  rather and  multiple  124 regression  techniques,  v a r i a b l e , we  variables.  changes i n the  package o f  Previous  hypothesis.^  by  little  Changes i n p a t t e r n i n g a r e  electoral  evidence  t o compare t h e And  together d i f f e r e n t  consistency across  cleavage  which bears  T h e r e have b e e n no  across e l e c t i o n s .  other  directly  of  and  across elections.  provide  adduced  We  Also, levels  maintain in a  that  given  p r o v i d e s a b e t t e r b a s i s f o r comparison In s p i t e o f i t s l a c k o f d i r e c t  of B r i t i s h  to the  Columbia e l e c t o r a l  exception noted  support  be  support  i n d i c a t o r of response  r e s e a r c h does i n t r o d u c e us  W i t h one  electoral  s w i n g between e l e c t i o n s .  thus  historical  s t u d i e s , because t h e r e i s  static  s w i n g i s a more s e n s i t i v e  the  s t u d i e s i n the v a r i a b l e s examined,  research deals with  r a t h e r than w i t h  on  c o m p a r i s o n can  previous  correlates  the  socio-economic  methodologies used.  previous  indi-  British  systematic  impact no  in  o r t h e m e a s u r e s , s a m p l e s and  election,  sets  amount o f v a r i a n c e e x p l a i n e d by  r e s e a r c h on  designed  pulling  power o f p a r a l l e l  Correlates British Introduction  C o l u m b i a p r o v i d e s no  variables  dependent  variables.  Socio-Economic of Voting in Columbia:.  analyses  t a k i n g s w i n g as t h e  compare t h e e x p l a n a t o r y  of composition c a t e d by  and  f o r the  relevance,  socio-economic  behaviour.  below, s t u d i e s o f c l a s s  view t h a t p a r t y p r e f e r e n c e s  voting  vary  2 across class  categories.  CCF-NDP s u p p o r t  has  b e e n shown  (or,  125 i n the case o f aggregate  data s t u d i e s , i n f e r r e d ) t o be h i g h e r  (and S o c i a l C r e d i t support l o w e r ) , among working m a r g i n a l l y employed people, 5  3  union members,  4  c l a s s and  and those w i t h  lower incomes.  Recent  survey r e s u l t s show t h a t NDP support  i s above average  among those employed i n the resource e x t r a c -  t i o n and education i n d u s t r i e s , and below average among those g i n v o l v e d i n the commerce s e c t o r . While c l a s s d i f f e r e n c e s c e r t a i n l y do e x i s t , t h e i r magnitude i s not as s t r i k i n g as the c o n v e n t i o n a l wisdom i m p l i e s . D i f f e r e n c e s are o f t e n e s p e c i a l l y s m a l l when S o c i a l support i s examined.  Credit  F o r example, i n the recent Koenig and  Proverbs study i t i s shown t h a t the d i f f e r e n c e i n NDP support between union and nonunion v o t e r s was 13.6 percentage p o i n t s (49.4% among union members t o 35.8% among nonunion members). But the d i f f e r e n c e i n S o c i a l C r e d i t support between the two groups was l e s s than 5 percentage p o i n t s (27.9% among union members t o 32.2% among nonunion members).  S i m i l a r l y , across  Koenig and Proverbs' "'objective o c c u p a t i o n a l grouping see t h a t NDP support f a l l s from 59.2% i n the working  1  we  category,  to 51.2% i n the m a r g i n a l l y employed category, t o 37.5% among the managerial group.  S o c i a l C r e d i t support across these  c a t e g o r i e s i s much l e s s v a r i a n t ; i t does not s t r a y beyond the 23.3%  t o 27.2% range.  The same c o n c l u s i o n emerges when we  examine d i f f e r e n c e s across Koenig and Proverbs' measure o f o c c u p a t i o n .  subjective  126  Sproule-Jones s  regression analysis  1  l e a d s him  to express  o f t h e 1960  s i m i l a r qualms a b o u t  the c l a s s  vote politics  7 interpretation. Sproule-Jones s 1  There  argument and  that modernization electoral  swing  of d i f f e r e n t  i s an  our  parallel  as d i f f e r e n t  Social Credit  advantage from e l e c t i o n t h e weaker i d e n t i f i e d  "has  to e l e c t i o n  NDP,  Liberal  a net  According  partisan  in pulling and  communities  locations.  had  1  uniformity of  i s , to uniformity across  t y p e s as w e l l  between  s p e c u l a t i o n i n Chapter  might l e a d t o u n p a t t e r n e d  or, that  to Sproule-Jones,  interesting  o v e r more o f  T o r y v o t e r s , and  more  g of the Independents." is  seen  tual  Social  as stemming f r o m  appeals  i d e o l o g y , " a term used  versus  Credit's based  success on  "sponsored  t o d e s c r i b e the  s o c i a l i s m c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n of issue  d e f i n e d by  Social  Credit.  appeal across c l a s s  The  in this  free  regard  concep-  enterprise  alternatives  e x p l a n a t i o n of t h i s  ideology's  g r o u p s p o i n t s t o t h e weakness o r  absence  9 of  "intermediate structure[s]  these  structures  "from  the p a r t i s a n  t h e r e can be no appeals  group t o the e l e c t o r a t e , " class of  of group i n f l u e n c e . "  position, w i l l  be  two-step  through and  Sproule-Jones's  v o t e r s , no  matter  what  mediating their  s u b j e c t e d t o t h e same " o n e - s t e p  as a r e s u l t ,  Uniformity of be  argument, t h e n ,  proposition that modernization between c o l l e c t i v i t i e s .  influence  t h e norms o f t h e  i n f o r m a t i o n from the p a r t i e s . " ^  across classes w i l l ,  flow of  Without  The  g r e a t e r than runs  alternative  response expected.  counter to  should sharpen  flow"  the  differences  c l a i