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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Recent migrants and non-migrants in an historically expanding economy : the case of B.C. 1966-1971 Sebastian, David Ted 1978

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RECENT MIGRANTS AND MON-MIGRANTS IN AN HISTORICALLY EXPANDING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF B . C . 1966-1971 by DAVID TED SEBASTIAN B . A . (Honours) U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1970 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1978 David ' .Ted'Sebast ian, 1978 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of Brit ish Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of Brit ish Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 i i ABSTRACT Past migra t ion s tudies have tended to concentrate on e i ther , the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants , the c o r r e l a t e s that ' e x p l a i n ' migrat ion f l o w s , o r the monetary gains which accrue to migrants b u t , despi te a growing i n t e r e s t i n the f i e l d o f S o c i a l Impact Assessment, there has been l i t t l e e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s o f the r e l a t i v e performance of migrants and non-migrants i n areas exper iencing economic expansion. The few r e l e v a n t case s tudies which have been done examine h i s t o r i c a l l y s t a g -nant areas that have managed to a t t r a c t a new economic a c t i v i t y . They g e n e r a l l y compare a s i n g l e aspect of migrant/non-migrant performance ( u s u a l l y income) and use data that has l i m i t e d informat ion on important socio-economic v a r i a b l e s . Hence, the a v a i l a b l e informat ion on the r e l a t i v e performance of migrants and non-migrants i s sparse and f r a g -mentary. The t h e s i s improves the l e v e l of understanding of the outcomes and i m p l i c a t i o n s o f i n - m i g r a t i o n . It achieves t h i s by comparing not only the r e l a t i v e mean wage incomes but a l s o the demands f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s and the occupational dis t r ibut ions /unemployment rates of migrants who entered B . C . between 1966-1971 with those of longer term p r o v i n c i a l r e s i d e n t s ( i n d i g e n e s ) . The a n a l y s i s uses b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s to examine data der ived from a one per cent sample of the 1971 p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n , the whole sample i s used i n the study of the dependency r a t i o s while the male household head subgroup was se lec ted f o r the examination of the r e l a t i v e income and employment performance of migrants and non-migrants . The a n a l y s i s can be d i v i d e d i n t o two main streams. F i r s t , the examination o f areas i n which some previous work had been done. In t h i s stream the a n a l y s i s revealed that higher incomes among younger i n -migrants , . which have been found i n previous s tudies and which are e v i d e n t i n the data examined i n the t h e s i s , cease to e x i s t when l e v e l o f educat ion i s held constant . Indigenes were found to have mean wage incomes that were predominantly higher than or equal to those of comparable i n - m i g r a n t s . whi le i n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants had incomes that were s u b s t a n t i a l l y below those of indigenes and i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . At the same time i t . w a s found that the indigenous populat ion had a lower p r o p o r t i o n of i t s populat ion employed i n s e r v i c e r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s than i n - m i g r a n t s . This i s the reverse of the s i t u a t i o n i n h i s t o r i c a l l y stagnant areas i i i a t t r a c t i n g new a c t i v i t i e s . In a d d i t i o n , with the exception of i n t e r -nat ional migrants , the migrant flow d i d not c o n s i s t e n t l y have a l a r g e r propor t ion of i t s populat ion i n high s k i l l occupations than i n d i g e n e s . Once a g a i n , t h i s r e s u l t i s i n c o n t r a s t to previous f i n d i n g s . : The second group of f i n d i n g s i s i n areas where previous work i s minimal or n o n - e x i s t e n t . I In these a reas , in-migrants were found: to have a lower r a t i o o f dependents per income earner than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n , to be employed i n a broad range of occupations r a t h e r than concentrated i n a few, and to import a l a r g e amount o f human c a p i t a l acquired i n other j u r i s d i c t i o n s . Yet the unemployment rate of the i n d i g -enous male household head populat ion was found to be approximately three per cent . The f i n d i n g s lead to three general conclusions r e l a t i n g to i n - m i g r a -t i o n to B . C . during the 1966-1971 p e r i o d : 1. i n terms of the f a c t o r s s t u d i e d , i n - m i g r a t i o n over the p e r i o d was b e n e f i c i a l to the p r o v i n c e . 2. there are only a few subgroups of the indigenous populat ion s tudied that d i d not perform as wel l as in-migrants i n the expanding p r o v i n c i a l economy. Furthermore, these groups i n c l u d e only a small per centage of the t o t a l indigenous popula t ion examined. j 3. among male household heads there i s no s u b s t a n t i a l support f o r the conventional wisdom that i n - m i g r a n t s f i l l a l a r g e number of jobs needed by the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter I Study Rat ionale and Background Information 1.1 Int roduct ion 1 1.2 The Rat ionale f o r Studying Migrants /Non-migrants . 2 1.3 The Migrant/Non-migrant Issue i n the Context o f M i g r a t i o n L i t e r a t u r e 3 1.4 Past Studies and Problems 6 1.5 Factors to be Considered 12 1.6 The St ruc ture of the Thesis 13 Footnotes 15 Chapter II The Data Source 2.1 Int roduct ion . . . . 1 7 2.2 The One i n a Hundred Sample .18 2.3 Methodology .-23 2.4 The D e f i n i t i o n of M i g r a t i o n 27 2.5 B . C . During the 1966-1971 Census Period 31 2.6 Summary 34 Footnotes 35 Chapter III R e l a t i v e Demand f o r S o c i a l Services-3.1 Int roduct ion .36 3.2 The Issue 37 3.3 The Measures , 39 3.4 The Expectat ion 42 3.5 The Findings 44 3.6 Summary/Conclusions 53 Footnotes 55 Chapter IV Income of Migrants and Non-Migrants 4.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 57 4.2 The Issue 57 4.3 The Measure 58 4.4 The Expectat ion 59 4.5 The Findings 66 4.6 Summary/Conclusions . .31 Footnotes 83 Chapter V Employment of Migrants and Non-Migrants 5.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 86 5.2 The Issue 87 5.3 The Measures 87 5.4 The Expectat ion '. 88 5.5 The Findings 89 5.6 Summary/Conclusions 107 Footnotes . 109 V Chapter VI Summary, Conc l u s i o n s , and Implications 6.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 114 6.2 Major Findings o f the A n a l y s i s 115 6.3 Major Conclusions that can be Drawn from the Study 119 6.4 Major I m p l i c a t i o n s of the Study's Findings ..120 6.5 Summary , • 122 Footnotes - -124 BIBLIOGRAPHY 126 TABLES Table I 1971 Population of B . C . i n Various Migrant Subgroups 30 Table II M i g r a t i o n Status vs Serow's (1974) and a Refined D e f i n i t i o n of the Dependency R a t i o . 45 Table III Dependency Ratios and Categories of M i g r a t i o n Status 46 Table IV Types of Dependency vs M i g r a t i o n Status 47 Table V D i s t r i b u t i o n of I n d i v i d u a l s Whose Major Source of Income i s Government T r a n s f e r Payments According to Age and M i g r a t i o n Status 49 Table VI T r a n s f e r Payment Rec ipients as a Percentage of the T o t a l C e l l P o p u l a t i o n , Age groups vs Migrant Groups 50 Table VII Mean Income of the Male Labour Force of B . C . by Age and Education Level (1971) 62 Table VIII Income and Labour Force Status of Migrant Groups (aged s ix teen to s i x t y - f i v e ) 67 Table IX Mean Wage Income (1971) of Male Household Heads by Migra t ion Class 70 Table X Mean Wage Income of Male Household Heads by M i g r a t i o n Status and Age Group 72 Table XI Mean Wage Income of Male Household Heads with Labour Force Experience and Education Level C o n t r o l l e d 74 Table XII Male Household Head Industry of Employment f o r D i f f e r e n t Migrant Groups . . 90 Table XIII Per Centage of Male Household Heads Employed i n M a n a g e r i a l , S c i e n c e / E n g i n e e r i n g , and Machining Occupations by Migra t ion Status and Community S i z e 95 Table XIV Unemployed Male Household Heads as a Per Centage of A l l Male Household Heads by M i g r a t i o n Class and Occupation . 98 TABLES c o n t i n u e d . Table XV Unemployed Male Household Heads as a Per Centage of A l l Male Household Heads w i t h i n Age/Educat ion/Migrant Status Subgroups 103 Table XVI Counts of the Indigenous Unemployed and In-migrant Employed Populat ions by Age Groups and Education Levels f o r S e r v i c e , Machining , and Const ruc t ion Occupations 106 vi i i FIGURES Figure 1 Labour Force , Employment and Unemployment i n B . C . 1962-1972 33 Figure 2 Average Annual Index of Numbers Employed i n Selec ted I n d u s t r i e s , B r i t i s h Columbia 1962-1972 33 Figure 3 T y p i c a l Income D i s t r i b u t i o n s when Number of Respondents i s Large . . . . 60 Figure 4 T y p i c a l Income D i s t r i b u t i o n s when Number of Respondents Reduced but 10 .61 ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This t h e s i s marks the end of the meandering path which I have fol lowed through the seemingly boundless but f a s c i n a t i n g realm of ' p l a n n i n g 1 . I must begin by thanking Brahm Wiesman f o r generously a l lowing me to take the extra time that I f e l t was necessary to round out my planning educat ion . As to the e v o l u t i o n of the t h e s i s i t s e l f , I am indebted to Doug Webster f o r h is guidance and comments on e a r l y d r a f t s , to Brahm Wiesman f o r h is a s s i s t a n c e i n the l a s t s tages , and to Michael Poulton f o r c o n s i s t e n t l y g i v i n g generous amounts of his time to o f f e r thought-f u l c r i t i c i s m and v a l u a b l e a d v i c e . However, a t h e s i s i s more than an i n t e r e s t i n g academic e x e r c i s e . It a l so r e q u i r e s a l o t of tedious , d r a i n i n g work. This load was made bearable by L o r i , ; who has been support ive and h e l p f u l throughout t h i s t r y i n g t ime. . 1 CHAPTER I STUDY RATIONAl AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION 1.1 INTRODUCTION The s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of economic a c t i v i t y changes over time as a r e s u l t of the d i s c o v e r y and d e p l e t i o n of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , changes i n e i t h e r consumer demand or i n t e r - n a t i o n a l t r a d i n g p a t t e r n s , and t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments which i n f l u e n c e the l o c a t i o n of i n d u s t r y (Anderson, 1966; Brewis, 1974). Concomitant with changes i n the l o c a t i o n of economic a c t i v i t y w i t h i n a nation are changes i n the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of i t s po p u l a t i o n . T h i s p o p u l a t i o n m i g r a t i o n i s a process t h a t i n v o l v e s a complex i n t e r a c t i o n of source and d e s t i n a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s , i n f o r m a t i o n flows, moving c o s t s and p s y c h o - s o c i o l o g i c a l d i s r u p t i o n s . T h i s t h e s i s examines one very s p e c i f i c and l a r g e l y ignored aspect of the movement of p e o p l e — t h e r e l a t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants and non-migrants i n a r e g i o n with a h i s t o r y of economic expansion. The study compares the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants s e t t l i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia between 1966 and 1971 with those of l o n g e r term p r o v i n c i a l (indigenous) r e s i d e n t s . 1 The geographic u n i t of a n a l y s i s i s the pro v i n c e as a whole r a t h e r than s m a l l e r sub-regions and the data used t o compare migrants and non-migrants i s a one per cent sample of the p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n on June 1, 1971., The t o p i c i s i n t r o d u c e d i n a broad context i n t h i s chapter while the remaining c h a p t e r s i s o l a t e and examine t h r e e s p e c i f i c aspects of migrant/non-migrant d i f f e r e n c e s i n a r e c e i v i n g r e g i o n : 2 the r a t i o of dependents t o employed persons; the r e l a t i v e incomes of experience/education s p e c i f i c subgroups; and the type and extent of employment. T h i s i n t r o d u c t o r y chapter i s d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t o u t l i n e s the r a t i o n a l e f o r s t u d y i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants at t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n . , In the second, previous s t u d i e s of migrants/non-migrants are b r i e f l y reviewed i n order to i n d i c a t e the s p e c i a l i z e d f o c u s or fragmentary nature of p r i o r r e s e a r c h . The remaining s e c t i o n summarizes the major t o p i c s t o be examined i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s and o u t l i n e s the format of the chapters c o n t a i n i n g the a n a l y s i s . 1.2 THE RATIONALE FOR STUDYING MIGRANTS/NON-MIGRANTS M i g r a t i o n i s a fundamental aspect of po p u l a t i o n and economic growth. Despite a p r o d i g i o u s nuaber of a r t i c l e s on the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants and causes of migration at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l and an expanding body o f l i t e r a t u r e on the s o c i a l impacts of migration a t a l o c a l s c a l e , there i s scant i n f o r m a t i o n on the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l impacts or outcomes of i n - m i g r a t i o n . T h i s t h e s i s examines some of the r e s u l t s of i n - m i g r a t i o n which occurred during a p e r i o d o f economic growth i n order t o improve the l e v e l of understanding o f t h i s aspect of m i g r a t i o n . The province i s chosen as the u n i t of a n a l y s i s s i n c e i t has some l e g i s l a t i v e j u r i s d i c t i o n t o act on immigration (BNA Act, 1974) and s i n c e i t s tax and l e g i s l a t i v e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s make i t the l o g i c a l u n i t to for m u l a t e , i n s t i t u t e , and fund any r e g u l a t o r y or m i t i g a t i n g programs r e l a t e d t o i n - m i g r a t i o n t h a t may be 3 d e s i r a b l e . 1.3 THE HIGRANT/NON-MIGRANT ISSUE IN THE CONTEXT OF MIGRATION LITERATURE H i g r a t i o n i s a p u r p o s e f u l act. Since movement n e c e s s i t a t e s the expenditure of both time and money, i t must be i n f e r r e d t h a t a migrant ( i n d i v i d u a l or household) b e l i e v e s he w i l l b e n e f i t from a move* 2 T h i s " d e s i r e to i n c r e a s e personal u t i l i t y " approach i s the b a s i s of the economic i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f migrati o n (Greenwood, 1975) and the economic viewpoint dominates the migrati o n l i t e r a t u r e (Shaw, 1975). T h i s s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s a b r i e f summary of the content of t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i n order t o show t h a t the author*s i n t e r e s t i n the comparison o f migrants and non-migrants i n an expanding r e g i o n i s both o r i g i n a l and a l o g i c a l e x t e n s i o n of past s t u d i e s . The bulk of mi g r a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e has concerned i t s e l f with i d e n t i f y i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f migrants and the c o r r e l a t e s t h a t ' e x p l a i n ' migrant flows. These s t u d i e s have i n v a r i a b l y found t h a t migrants are younger and b e t t e r educated than the non-migrant p o p u l a t i o n . The concensus i s that young a d u l t s are l e s s f i r m l y attached t o a l o c a t i o n than more mature a d u l t s because; t h e i r l i m i t e d experience i n the labour f o r c e means they are more l i k e l y t o be s e a r c h i n g f o r a s u i t a b l e o c c u p a t i o n than t o be t i e d t o a job by l e n g t h o f s e r v i c e b e n e f i t s ; they have fewer p e r s o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t e s (e.g., c h i l d r e n ) and l e s s s t r o n g l y developed community t i e s ( f r i e n d s and r e l a t i v e s ) ; and f i n a l l y , they have fewer f i x e d a s s e t s and p e r s o n a l possessions t o e i t h e r l e a v e behind or move., The b e t t e r educated groups are a l s o c o n s i d e r e d t o have a more d i s p e r s e d labour market and b e t t e r i n f o r m a t i o n on 4 p o s s i b l e d e s t i n a t i o n s (George, 1970; Greenwood, 1975; Shaw, 1975; and Stone, 196 9 ) . 3 The second major concern of previous m i g r a t i o n a n a l y s i s c e n t r e s on the c o r r e l a t e s or f a c t o r s which ' e x p l a i n * p o p u l a t i o n movements. From t h i s viewpoint, the d e s i r e to i n c r e a s e p e r s o n a l u t i l i t i y suggests t h a t the expected flow of migrants w i l l be: from low to high wage (income) areas, from areas with high unemployment r a t e s to those with lower r a t e s , and g r e a t e r over s h o r t than long d i s t a n c e s . * These e x p e c t a t i o n s have been v e r i f i e d by numerous r e s e a r c h e r s ( M i l l e r , 1972; Shaw, 1975; Stone, 1969; e t c ) . However, these r e l a t i o n s h i p s vary i n s t r e n g t h and are not always, i n f a c t , found to hold (Greenwood, 1975 and Shaw, 1975). T h i s v a r i a b i l i t y can be e x p l a i n e d by non-uniform discount r a t e s among migrants (Werthehimer, 1969), incomplete i n f o r m a t i o n (proxied by l e v e l o f education or f r i e n d s and r e l a t i v e s a t the d e s t i n a t i o n ) ( M i l l e r , 1972; P e t t o and Bender, 1974; Richarson, 1973), or a v a r i e t y of non-economic f a c t o r s such as c l i m a t e (Alonso, 1974; Greenwood and Anderson, 1972), crime r a t e s (Cebula, 1974), and p h y s i c c o s t s (Bender, Green, and Campbell, 1971) . A question t h a t i s addressed much l e s s f r e q u e n t l y i n migration r e s e a r c h i s the e x t e n t to which m i g r a t i o n a c t u a l l y p r o v i d e s monetary b e n e f i t s to migrants. T h i s area i s approached from two p e r s p e c t i v e s . The f i r s t q u estions whether a migrant's d e s t i n a t i o n wages are higher than h i s wages at the o r i g i n and the second questions whether the migrants' d e s t i n a t i o n wages are higher than the wages of comparable i n d i v i d u a l s remaining a t the o r i g i n . The f i n d i n g s of s t u d i e s d e a l i n g with these aspects of m i g r a t i o n have been somewhat i n c o n c l u s i v e (Greenwood, 1975). 5 Aggregate comparisons have i n d i c a t e d t h a t migrants do have higher sages than non-movers of the same age at the o r i g i n . Although i t has been shown that a l a r g e p o r t i o n of the d i f f e r e n t i a l can be e x p l a i n e d by the g r e a t e r l i k e l i h o o d t h a t migrants w i l l change t h e i r i n d u s t r y of employment (Cox, 1971), these s t u d i e s f a i l t o g u a n t i f y e i t h e r the out of pocket expenses and o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s i n c u r r e d d u r i n g the move ( R a b i a n s k i , 1972) or c o s t of l i v i n g d i f f e r e n c e s between the o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n r e g i o n s (Kiker and Trayham, 1977). 5 As a r e s u l t , higher wage r a t e s a t a d e s t i n a t i o n suggest, but do not prove, t h a t m i g r a t i o n p r o v i d e s a net economic b e n e f i t to migrants. Thus most of the past s t u d i e s of migration have d e a l t with the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f migrants and the causes of migration. Much l e s s a t t e n t i o n has been p a i d to g u a n t i f y i n g the c o s t and b e n e f i t s of migration through the comparison of migrants' incomes at the d e s t i n a t i o n with the incomes of comparable non-movers remaining at the o r i g i n . T h i s t h e s i s approaches migration from a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e . I t does not focus on the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants, i t does not c o n s i d e r the i n d i v i d u a l ' s reasons f o r migrating, nor does i t e x p l o r e the extent to which m i g r a t i o n b e n e f i t s the migrants.* Instead i t examines migrants i n the context of the r e c e i v i n g r e g i o n . I t takes the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants, the m o t i v a t i o n f o r m i g r a t i n g , and the rewards f o r mi g r a t i o n as given and e x p l o r e s an area t h a t has not been s t u d i e d i n d e t a i l i n a l a r g e , expanding r e g i o n . Conseguently, t h i s study w i l l tend t o complement r a t h e r than d u p l i c a t e the i n f o r m a t i o n contained i n most p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s . 6 1.4 PAST STUDIES AND PROBLEMS Even though the comparison of migrants and non-migrants i n areas e x p e r i e n c i n g expansion can be considered t o be a l o g i c a l e x t e n s i o n of past ' c o n v e n t i o n a l * m i g r a t i o n s t u d i e s , the r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e i s sparse and fragmentary. The bulk of the e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e i s a s s o c i a t e d with t h e l o c a t i o n of new economic a c t i v i t i e s i n l a g g i n g r e g i o n s . , The study o f l a g g i n g r e g i o n s may be seen to have f o l l o w e d from the American concern over the i n a b i l i t y of continued economic growth to e r a d i c a t e poverty. In a s e r i e s of a r t i c l e s u s i ng p u b l i s h e d n a t i o n a l data disaggregated a c c o r d i n g t o farm/non-farm p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e , r a c e , and sex of household head, Anderson (1964), Galloway (1964, 1967), and Aaron (1967) disagreed on both the reasons some groups were poverty prone and the type of programs t h a t would reduce t h e p o r t i o n of each p o p u l a t i o n subgroup i n poverty but agreed that the groups* median incomes and p r o p o r t i o n s i n poverty were d i f f e r e n t i a l l y r e s p o n s i v e to changes i n the l e v e l of n a t i o n a l aggregate income. The b a s i c debate over the extent to which economic growth reduces poverty i s s t i l l an i s s u e a t a r e g i o n a l l e v e l and i s no c l o s e r t o r e s o l u t i o n today than i t was at a n a t i o n a l l e v e l i n the s i x t i e s (see f o r example G r e e n f i e l d 1976, 1977 and Beck, 1977 ) . The methodological problem r e v e a l e d by these s t u d i e s c e n t r e s on the f a c t t h a t p u b l i s h e d data does not t r a c e i n d i v i d u a l cases. As a r e s u l t , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e , with s u c c e s s i v e s e t s of p u b l i s h e d census data, to d i s t i n g u i s h between i n d i v i d u a l s who t r a n s f e r i n t o the non-poor category because of i n c r e a s e s i n t h e i r income and i n d i v i d u a l s who remain poor but change l o c a t i o n . 7 At the same 7 time, the p r o p o r t i o n i n poverty i s not a u s e f u l i n d i c a t o r s i n c e p o p u l a t i o n growth commonly a s s o c i a t e d with r e g i o n a l economic growth w i l l reduce the p o r t i o n i n poverty even i f t h e i r a b s o l u t e number remains the same. Thus to be u s e f u l f o r the study of e i t h e r the r e l a t i o n s h i p between poverty and economic growth or the impacts of i n - m i g r a t i o n , data must d i s t i n g u i s h between non-movers and in-migrants. In the past, t h i s type of data has been gathered through the study o f i n d i v i d u a l p r o j e c t s i n h i s t o r i c a l l y d i s t r e s s e d a r e a s . 8 In depressed r e g i o n s i t i s assumed t h a t managerial and s k i l l e d personnel must be imported to provide the e x p e r t i s e r e g u i r e d d u r i n g economic expansion. Garnick et a l (1971) estimates t h i s category of employees accounts f o r approximately 32% of the d i r e c t employment growth expected from expansion. However, even i n c a s e s t h a t re-quire no s p e c i a l i z e d s k i l l s , s e v e r a l s t u d i e s of i n d u s t r i e s l o c a t i n g i n depressed areas reach a common gen e r a l c o n c l u s i o n : the l a c k of b a s i c s k i l l s amongst the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n and a s t r o n g tendency f o r out-migrants from previous p e r i o d s t o r e t u r n i n order to take jobs i n the e s t a b l i s h i n g i n d u s t r y r e s u l t s i n migrants i n t e r v e n i n g between the indigenous l a b o u r f o r c e and o p p o r t u n i t i e s c r e a t e d i n the region (Bender, Green, and Campbell, 1971; Hansen, 1973; and Gray, 1969). These migrants do not have a high s k i l l l e v e l , completion of high s c h o o l education and some r e l a t e d work experience i s enough t o give in-migrants and returnees an edge over the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . In a somewhat d i f f e r e n t context Bebster (1976) i n d i c a t e s t h a t , i n s p i t e of e x t e n s i v e t r a i n i n g and c o u n s e l l i n g of the indigenous labour f o r c e , in-migrant workers occupied over 50% of the jobs and had the highest average wages 8 i n a government supported p r o j e c t i n Northern A l b e r t a . Thus i t i s f a i r l y c l e a r that even i n l a g g i n g areas i n which under-employment or unemployment i s a problem, a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n of newly c r e a t e d p o s i t i o n s (at v a r i o u s l e v e l s ) , are f r e q u e n t l y occupied by i n - m i g r a n t s r a t h e r than t h e indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . 9 The migrant/non-migrant s i t u a t i o n i n s t a b l e and growing r e g i o n s i s not as c l e a r because fewer s t u d i e s examining t h i s aspect of these r e g i o n s have been done. Although the o c c a s s i o n a l study t a n g e n t i a l l y r e f e r s t o a s i n g l e measure of migrant/non-migrant performance i n non-depressed r e g i o n s , none d e a l with the t o p i c at l e n g t h . In order t o demonstrate the s c a r c i t y of i n f o r m a t i o n on the s i t u a t i o n i n these r e g i o n s , the most i n t e r e s t i n g s t u d i e s d i s c o v e r e d a f t e r an e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e search are o u t l i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g paragraphs.-Moseley (1975 b) s t u d i e d the spread of economic s t i m u l u s outward from s m a l l E n g l i s h growth c e n t r e s to t h e i r " h i n t e r l a n d s " . The two towns ( p o p u l a t i o n s approximately 13,000) he s t u d i e d were designated t o r e c e i v e a c t i v i t i e s r e l o c a t e d from London. Despite a p o l i c y o f s e l e c t i n g l a b o u r from a pool of London a p p l i c a n t s and the c o n s t r u c t i o n of c o u n c i l houses i n the towns f o r the express purpose of housing i n - m i g r a n t s , he i n d i c a t e s there was s t i l l q u i t e an i n c r e a s e i n the employment of l o c a l s : s e v e n t y - f i v e percent of the p o p u l a t i o n who l i v e d o u t s i d e the towns and commuted to work were o r i g i n a l l y from the immediate v i c i n i t y . On the other hand, w i t h i n the two c i t i e s themselves the r a t i o s of new l o c a l employees to Londoners were 1:3 and 1:4., U n f o r t u n a t e l y , Moseley does not provide i n f o r m a t i o n on the e d u c a t i o n , wage r a t e s , and employment s t a t u s of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . As a r e s u l t , d e s p i t e the statement t h a t t h e r e was 9 q u i t e an i n c r e a s e i n the number o f the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n employed, there i s no s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e type o f jobs they e n t e r e d , i o the t o t a l number employed, nor whether any remained unemployed. I n any case, there i s some quest i o n whether the E n g l i s h s i t u a t i o n i s comparable to North America, l e t alone B.C. A second study i s Summers' (1973) before and a f t e r survey of a community i n which a l a r g e s t e e l f a c i l i t y was d e v e l o p e d . 1 1 The res e a r c h i n v o l v e d the use of two household area p r o b a b i l i t y surveys i n the community i n which the s t e e l works were c o n s t r u c t e d plus i d e n t i c a l surveys i n an otherwise s i m i l a r community intended t o a c t as a ' c o n t r o l * . The f i r s t surveys were conducted d u r i n g the c o n s t r u c t i o n period and the second about f o u r years l a t e r while the s t e e l m i l l was o p e r a t i n g . The comparison w i t h i n and between communities i n d i c a t e d t h a t the s t e e l works had lowered the average age of household heads; produced a marginal i n c r e a s e i n the e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l and job s t a t u s ; and r e s u l t e d i n a s l i g h t decrease i n the skewedness of the income d i s t r i b u t i o n 1 2 r e l a t i v e t o the c o n t r o l r e g i o n . Summers i n t e r p r e t s these f i n d i n g s t o be an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t the younger age groups stayed i n or were a t t r a c t e d t o , while income d i s p a r i t i e s were s l i g h t l y reduced w i t h i n , the expanding community. However, h i s data does nothing t o i d e n t i f y the d i f f e r e n c e s between migrants and non-migrants s i n c e the second g u e s t i o n n a i r e was administered not t o the i n i t i a l survey's respondents but r a t h e r to a newly s e l e c t e d sample and ( i n the expanding area) i t d i d not d i s t i n g u i s h between s h o r t and long term r e s i d e n t s . As a r e s u l t , the d i f f e r e n c e s d i s c o v e r e d i l l u s t r a t e the changes produced by i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n without 1 0 i d e n t i f y i n g whether the d i f f e r e n c e s were caused by m i g r a t i o n i n t o , or r e t e n t i o n of the young and b e t t e r educated w i t h i n , the community. The f i n a l study summarized i s Courchene's (1974) examination of a sample of Canadian UIC r e g i s t r a n t s . The data was d e r i v e d from a 2% sample of s o c i a l i n s u r a n c e numbers from which a l l cases t h a t were female or t h a t d i d not have complete tax and UIC i n f o r m a t i o n f o r each year between 1965 and 1968 were d e l e t e d . T h i s meant the data only i n c l u d e d those males who c o n t r i b u t e d to and were covered by the p r o v i s i o n s of the Unemployment Insurance Commission—at t h a t time the maximum annual s a l a r y t h a t f e l l under the act was $5460 u n l e s s p a i d on an h o u r l y , d a i l y , or piece-meal b a s i s . I t excluded h o s p i t a l workers, t e a c h e r s , c i v i l s e r v a n t s , and self-employed i n d i v i d u a l s r e g a r d l e s s of income. In a d d i t i o n , the requirement t h a t a tax form be f i l e d each year tended t o d e l e t e lower income i n d i v i d u a l s . With t h i s l i m i t e d sample, Coucherene found t h a t f o r Canada as a whole in-migrants i n i t i a l l y had a lower average wage than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n but t h a t a f t e r two years the migrants had, i n most p r o v i n c e s , managed to r i s e to a h i g h e r average wage than non-migrants. When broken down i n t o t h r e e age c a t e g o r i e s the B r i t i s h Columbia r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d i n - m i g r a n t s aged 15-29 had a lower i n i t i a l but higher end of p e r i o d wage while the 30-44 and 45-64 age groups had both i n i t i a l and f i n i s h i n g wages lower than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . Although t h i s s e c t i o n of Courchene's study began to look a t aigrant/non-migrant performance, i t i s only a p a r t i a l view s i n c e : t h e r e are no c o n t r o l s f o r education; the sample i s l i m i t e d to a f a i r l y narrow band of incomes; the age c a t e g o r i e s are q u i t e broad; the l e v e l of indigenous unemployment i s not 11 i n d i c a t e d ; students from the r e c e i v i n g province were a p p a r e n t l y not e l i m i n a t e d from the sample; and f i n a l l y , t h e r e i s no i n d i c a t i o n of the number o f cases i n each category whose wages were averaged. However w i t h i n t h i s l i m i t e d sample there i s an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t i n - m i g r a n t s , at l e a s t i n the youngest group, f a r e b e t t e r than indigenous non-migrants. Since the youngest age group dominates the migrant f l o w , the s u g g e s t i o n i s c l e a r l y t h a t when e d u c a t i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s are not taken i n t o account migrants e n t e r jobs t h a t , a f t e r a very short time, pay b e t t e r than those of non-migrants. In summary, then, the s t u d i e s at the n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l l e v e l have i n d i c a t e d t h a t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of p u b l i s h e d aggregate s t a t i s t i c s make them i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r comparing the performance o f migrants and non-migrants., Small s c a l e s t u d i e s of s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s i n d i s t r e s s e d r e g i o n s have shown in-mi g r a n t s and r e t u r n e e s tend t o i n t e r c e p t many of the b e t t e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s made a v a i l a b l e by the establishment of new i n d u s t r y . , Other s t u d i e s i n l e s s d i s t r e s s e d areas i n d i c a t e t h a t a f a i r number o f newly c r e a t e d jobs go to the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n although the p o r t i o n , i f any, remaining unemployed i s not considered. F i n a l l y , r e s e a r c h using a r e s t r i c t e d sample has shown that young migrants to B.C. a t t a i n a higher average income than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n of a s i m i l a r age. O v e r a l l then, there i s a very low l e v e l of knowledge of t h e outcomes of i n - m i g r a t i o n when important socio-economic determinants are held constant or when an e x t e n s i v e p o p u l a t i o n i s analyzed. Nevertheless, there i s a t l e a s t a suggestion t h a t i n expanding r e g i o n s i n - m i g r a n t s may a t t a i n a higher average annual income than the comparable members of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . 12 1.6 FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED Although the a n a l y s i s w i l l extend the income r e l a t e d focus of p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h , o t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t are of i n t e r e s t from the p r o v i n c i a l viewpoint are a l s o c o n s i d e r e d i n order to provide a broader, although s t i l l e s s e n t i a l l y economic, assessment of the impacts of i n - m i g r a t i o n on the p r o v i n c e of B.C. From the viewpoint o f the province, a fundamental g u e s t i o n r e l a t e s to the l e v e l of s o c i a l s e r v i c e s that the i n - m i g r a n t s demand. As d i s c u s s e d i n chapter t h r e e , t h e r e are numerous problems t h a t prevent the d i r e c t measurement of the o v e r a l l demand f o r s e r v i c e s c r e a t e d by migration but two i n d i c a t o r s are examined t o give a p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t e of the migrants* demand f o r these s e r v i c e s r e l a t i v e to t h a t of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . The f i r s t i s a proxy t h a t r e l a t e s the number of people i n a p o p u l a t i o n who are l i k e l y to r e g u i r e some s o r t of s o c i a l s e r v i c e to the number of income e a r n e r s i n that p o p u l a t i o n . Comparing t h i s i n d i c a t o r f o r migrants and non-migrants e s t a b l i s h e s whether s e r v i c e s demanded by i n - m i g r a n t s are l i k e l y t o impose a c o s t on the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . A second measure, the p r o p o r t i o n of each group r e c e i v i n g government t r a n s f e r payments, i s used to estimate the r e l a t i v e demand f o r support payments from the p r o v i n c i a l government. Together, these two measures w i l l provide an i n s i g h t i n t o the extent to which migrants draw on and c o n t r i b u t e t o p r o v i n c i a l government revenues. In terms of the income focus of p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s , the t h e s i s examines r e l a t i v e wages o f migrants and non-migrants when important socio-economic determinants are h e l d c o n s t a n t . T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l serve two purposes. F i r s t , i t w i l l e s t a b l i s h the 13 e x i s t e n c e or abscence of age/education subgroups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n who r e c e i v e lower incomes than comparable in- m i g r a n t s . Second, i t w i l l begin to c a s t some l i g h t on the r e l a t i v e importance of human c a p i t a l • r e s i d u a l s * such as m o b i l i t y , c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, and i n f o r m a t i o n i n the determination of wage income Another aspect o f m i g r a t i o n which i s of i n t e r e s t a t the p r o v i n c i a l s c a l e i s the e x t e n t to which i t provides both key personnel and r e g u i r e d medium and/or low s k i l l workers. Key personnel are d e f i n e d as people with s p e c i a l i z e d s k i l l s who are near the top of the occupation h i e r a r c h y . These people are c r i t i c a l s i n c e they perform a r o l e t h a t supports or demands the i n p u t of l a r g e r numbers of lower s k i l l e d workers. At the same time, an expanding economy w i l l r e g u i r e a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e number of lower or u n s k i l l e d workers. I f the demands of expanding i n d u s t r y exceed the p r o v i n c i a l supply o f these workers, i n -migrants are a requirement of expansion. Other employment r e l a t e d items of i n t e r e s t examined i n chapter f o u r a r e the o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of i n - m i g r a n t s and the unemployment r a t e s o f the migrant and non-migrant p o p u l a t i o n s . O v e r a l l , the a n a l y s i s i n the t h e s i s takes a f i r s t s t e p towards i d e n t i f y i n g the l e v e l of s o c i a l s e r v i c e s demanded by migrants, the extent t o which i n - m i g r a n t s provide important and e s s e n t i a l workers, the r e l a t i v e incomes of migrants and non-migrants, and s p e c i f i c subgroups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n who have lower incomes than migrants or who are unemployed while comparable migrants are employed. Once these base c o n d i t i o n s have been e s t a b l i s h e d they may d i r e c t l y suggest p o l i c i e s needed t o a m e l i o r a t e unfavourable s i t u a t i o n s , i d e n t i f y u n c e r t a i n t i e s 14 t h a t r e g u i r e f u r t h e r study before p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n can begin, or i n d i c a t e t h a t no r e g u l a t o r y or m i t i g a t i o n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n i s r e q u i r e d . 1.7 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS The remainder o f the t h e s i s i s d i v i d e d i n t o f i v e c hapters. Chapter two c o n t a i n s a d e s c r i p t i o n of the data source and the type of a n a l y s i s used i n the t h e s i s . Chapter t h r e e , f o u r , and f i v e d e a l with the comparison o f migrant and non-migrant 'dependency r a t i o s ' , incomes, and employment s t a t u s e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . These chapters have a common s t r u c t u r e : they each have an i n t r o d u c t i o n f o l l o w e d by a statement of the i s s u e , the i n d i c a t o r s used i n the a n a l y s i s , the e x p e c t a t i o n s generated by theory or past f i n d i n g s , and f i n a l l y , the a n a l y s i s and f i n d i n g s (with d i s c u s s i o n ) . The f i n a l chapter c o n s i s t s of an o v e r a l l summary, a s e t of c o n c l u s i o n s r e l a t i n g to the f i n d i n g s , and a some p o l i c i e s suggested by the f i n d i n g s . FOOTNOTES The sample data p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n on the respondent's p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e at the time of the previous census. The indigenous p o p u l a t i o n (indigenes) c o n s i s t s of a l l i n d i v i d u a l s who r e s i d e d i n B.C. on both June 1, 1966 and June 1, 1971. In l a t e r c h a p t e r s i t w i l l be seen t h a t the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i s subdivided i n t o non-mover, i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l , i n t e r -m u n icipal, and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l s u b c a t e g o r i e s when compared with i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n -migrants. To s i m p l i f y t h e terminology i n t h i s and other c h a p t e r s , ' i n d i g e n e s ' r e f e r s t o a l l non- or i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l movers while the terms 'migrants' or 'in-migrants* a re used to r e f e r t o i n t e r - i p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants. Since each move i s an independent event t h i s c o n d i t i o n w i l l h o l d r e g a r d l e s s o f the number of moves made i n a pe r i o d . Greenwood (1975) and Shaw (1975) are e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e reviews on the t o p i c of mi g r a t i o n and they may be r e f e r r e d to f o r any point r a i s e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n even though they are only c i t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y i n a few l o c a t i o n s . , These two l i t e r a t u r e reviews i n d i c a t e the overwhelming number of migration c e n t r e d s t u d i e s : Greenwood l i s t s more than 250 r e f e r e n c e s and Shaw over 600. Note that some of these i n d i c a t o r s { e s p e c i a l l y employment and income) can, i n theory, be i n f l u e n c e d by migration. I f t h i s i s the case s t r a i g h t c o r r e l a t i o n s w i l l i n c l u d e an e r r o r f a c t o r . The c o r r e c t f o r m u l a t i o n would i n v o l v e the use o f simultaneous equations (see, f o r example, Greenwood and Anderson, 1974). These authors i n d i c a t e the importance o f thes e f a c t o r s but do not q u a n t i f y them. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t both Greenwood (1975) and Shaw (1975) f e e l t h a t t h e r e i s poor i n t e g r a t i o n between the v a r i o u s approaches to m i g r a t i o n and t h a t n e i t h e r of them f e e l s t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l and r i g o r o u s t h e o r y of migration, Hansen (1974:18) came to e s s e n t i a l l y the same c o n c l u s i o n : A f t e r a l l of the many s t u d i e s t h a t have been made of the d i r e c t i o n s and magnitude of migration flows we s t i l l know remarkably l i t t l e about whether and under what c o n d i t i o n s . . . m i g r a n t s stay... the reasons f o r t h e i r choosing one d e s t i n a t i o n over another; the means by which they adapt t o t h e i r new environments; [ o r ] t h e i r o v e r a l l impact on t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n s . . . Aaron (1967) i n d i c a t e d t h a t i t was i m p o s s i b l e to e s t a b l i s h whether r e d u c t i o n s i n the p r o p o r t i o n of the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g below the poverty l i n e was due to i n c r e a s e d incomes or movement of the poor to c i t i e s . " D i s t r e s s e d " r e f e r s to areas with below average per c a p i t a incomes, above average unemployment l e v e l s , and/or a h i s t o r y of net o u t - m i g r a t i o n . These p r e -c o n d i t i o n s e x i s t i n a l l cases d i s c u s s e d i n the f o l l o w i n g paragraph. Water resources p r o j e c t s have not been i n c l u d e d as examples s i n c e there i s an extremely s m a l l amount of long-term d i r e c t employment generated by these p r o j e c t s . Short term work duri n g the c o n s t r u c t i o n phase, due to i t s s p e c i a l i z e d nature, tends t o be done by people drawn from o u t s i d e the area adjacent to the s i t e (see Hannon(1973:9) f o r an example i n Ohio or C o l l i s o n (undated) f o r an example i n Northern Manitoba)., He does i n d i c a t e (page 82) that the commuters (who were 75% indigenous) were p r i m a r i l y attached t o the " s e r v i c e " s e c t o r i n such occupations as l o r r y and van d r i v e r s , c o u n c i l workers, and those i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y e t c . T h i s i s s i m i l a r to Gray's (1969) f i n d i n g (in a l a g g i n g area) t h a t most o f the employment of indigenous r e s i d e n t s o c c u r r e d i n the s e r v i c e s e c t o r . Beck, Dotson, and Summers (1973) provide a j o u r n a l a r t i c l e l e n g t h write-up o f t h i s study. At the time, t h i s study was c a l l e d one of the two before and a f t e r s t u d i e s t h a t had been done of the socio-economic consequences o f r u r a l i n d u s t r i a l development (Clemente, 1973). The other study mentioned i s not a v a i l a b l e at or through the U.B.C. L i b r a r y and my l i t e r a t u r e search r e v e a l e d no other s i m i l a r s t u d i e s conducted a f t e r 1973. Even though the r e s u l t s are not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t ( l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e not stated) i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t the average annual income d i d not r i s e as much i n the experimental r e g i o n as i n the c o n t r o l r e g i o n and t h a t the t o t a l f a m i l y income dropped $50 i n the experimental while r i s i n g over $650 i n the c o n t r o l r e g i o n . 17 CHAPTER I I — T H E DATA SOURCE Chapter one i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n the past l i t t l e r e s e a r c h has been done on migrant/non-migrant d i f f e r e n c e s i n expanding r e g i o n s even though i t appears t o be a l o g i c a l e x t e n s i o n of past migration s t u d i e s . Research i n t h i s area would begin t o e s t a b l i s h the f a i r n e s s of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of growth, t o i d e n t i f y indigenous subgroups by-passed by the b e n e f i t s o f growth, and to provide a r e c e i v i n g area stance on programs to i n c r e a s e the m o b i l i t y of the r e s i d e n t s of l a g g i n g r e g i o n s . The reasons f o r s t u d y i n g B.C. and the f a c t o r s to be s t u d i e d were a l s o o u t l i n e d . T h i s chapter e s t a b l i s h e s the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the data base, the type of a n a l y s i s used, and the economic a c t i v i t y o c c u r r i n g i n the province d u r i n g the census p e r i o d . S e c t i o n one c o n t a i n s a s h o r t i n t r o d u c t i o n then s e c t i o n two b r i e f l y d e s c r i b e s the source of the data and i t s major shortcomings. S e c t i o n three o u t l i n e s the r a t i o n a l e f o r and the type of a n a l y s i s used to examine the data. The f i n a l s e c t i o n o u t l i n e s the economic a c t i v i t y i n t h e p r o v i n c e d u r i n g the 1966-1971 p e r i o d i n order t o e s t a b l i s h that the p r o v i n c i a l economy was indeed expanding during the census p e r i o d . 2.1 INTRODUCTION Chapter one i n d i c a t e d t h a t most o f the s t u d i e s of migrants i n a r e c e i v i n g r e g i o n had e i t h e r been done i n l a g g i n g areas or had used data t h a t d i d not permit comparison between education/age subgroups o f t h e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s chapter d e s c r i b e s a more a p p r o p r i a t e data source, the methodology t h a t w i l l be used to analyse i t , and e s t a b l i s h e s the f a c t t h a t the p r o v i n c i a l economy d i d grow i n the census p e r i o d . In order to be u s e f u l , any data used to analyse migrant/non-migrant c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n a r e c e i v i n g area must have s e v e r a l q u a l i t i e s . The most fundamental requirement of the data i s t h a t i t c l e a r l y d i s t i n q u i s h e s between migrants and non-migrants. At 18 the same time i t must i n c l u d e a broad range of income c a t e g o r i e s and, i n order to study dependency r a t i o s , i t must be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the whole p o p u l a t i o n r a t h e r than j u s t employed persons. I t should c o n t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n on the age, e d u c a t i o n , income, occupation and employment s t a t u s o f the covered i n d i v i d u a l s . I d e a l l y , i t would permit r e - a g g r e g a t i o n at v a r i o u s l e v e l s t o meet s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h needs and f i n a l l y , i t would be analagous to a l o n g i t u d i n a l study i n that i t would permit comparison of migrants and non-migrants sometime a f t e r the migrants a r r i v e d i n the r e c e i v i n g r e g i o n s . C l e a r l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o gather a p p r o p r i a t e data independently. Checks with the Government P u b l i c a t i o n s and Data L i b r a r y S e c t i o n s of the U.B.C, L i b r a r y and S t a t i s t i c s Canada O f f i c e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the P u b l i c Use Tapes of the One i n Hundred Sample ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1975) were the only a v a i l a b l e data source c o n t a i n i n g the necessary i n f o r m a t i o n and p r o v i d i n g the r e q u i r e d f l e x i b i l i t y . The d e r i v a t i o n of and problems a s s o c i a t e d with t h i s data source are o u t l i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , 2.2 THE ONE IN A HUNDRED SAMPLE The data used i n t h i s t h e s i s i s , e s s e n t i a l l y , a one per cent sample of the B.C. p o p u l a t i o n on June 1, 1971. L i k e a l l data sources, i t has s e v e r a l p e c u l i a r i t i e s a r i s i n g , f r o m i t s method of s e l e c t i n g s u b j e c t s and the type of q u e s t i o n s asked. These q u i r k s need to be made e x p l i c i t to ensure t h a t the a n a l y s i s i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s i s kept i n p e r s p e c t i v e i n terms of the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s o f the data. On the other hand, t h e r e are some f e a t u r e s of census data t h a t make i t s u p e r i o r t o more 19 s p e c i a l i z e d data sources. T h i s s e c t i o n mentions the more important problems and advantages of the data. E r r o r i n t h e _one j -Per ^ Cent^Samplg, In order t o e s t a b l i s h the accuracy of the data used i n t h i s t h e s i s i t i s necessary t o o u t l i n e the accuracy of the census data from which i t i s d e r i v e d . The sheer magnitude of the data c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g the census makes i t i n e v i t a b l e t h a t i n a c c u r a c i e s occur. Even though these e r r o r s may be s m a l l when compared t o s i m i l a r e r r o r s i n other data sources, they need t o be made e x p l i c i t i n order to guard a g a i n s t the impression that the i n f o r m a t i o n contained i n the a n a l y s i s i s one hundred per cent r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the p o p u l a t i o n . From the viewpoint of the a n a l y s i s of migrants/non-migrants, some of the e r r o r s tend to over and under r e p r e s e n t s p e c i f i c subgroups of the p o p u l a t i o n and even though i t i s impossible to e s t i m a t e the extent to which th e s e b i a s e s i n f l u e n c e the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s t h e i r e x i s t e n c e should be made c l e a r . The f i r s t major source of e r r o r a r i s e s from the f a i l u r e t o enumerate a l l members of the p o p u l a t i o n . , Estimates of t h i s 'coverage* e r r o r f o r the 1961 census i n d i c a t e t h a t B.C.'s l e v e l of 4.1% was approximately one per cent higher than the n a t i o n a l r a t e . T h i s coverage e r r o r v a r i e s between socio-economic and geographic groups, with above average l e v e l s i n low s o c i o -economic and downtown d w e l l i n g groups (George, 1970).; In a d d i t i o n , the l e v e l v a r i e s with age groups and, f o r the 1971 census, has been estimated to be as high as 10% n a t i o n a l l y f o r the 20-25 age group (Dodds, 1971). Taken i n combination these coverage e r r o r s would seem to r e p r e s e n t a source of s y s t e m a t i c b i a s i n the p o p u l a t i o n c l a s s e s i n which we are most i n t e r e s t e d . 20 That i s , the downtown d w e l l i n g group would tend to c o n t a i n more rece n t migrants than the suburban groups while the 20-25 age group has a higher than average r a t e o f geographic m o b i l i t y . At the same time, membership i n low socio-economic groups o f t e n i m p l i e s a r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l o f education and thus would tend t o suggest t h a t the group has a below average per centage of migrants. Thus there i s a s u g g e s t i o n t h a t the lower income groups of the non-migrant and the younger/recent/urban d e s t i n e d groups of the migrant p o p o u l a t i o n are under represented i n the census data. In a d d i t i o n , i t may be expected t h a t u n i v e r s i t y educated i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l have an above average p r o p e n s i t y to respond to g u e s t i o n a i r e s and thus are over r e p r e s e n t e d w i t h i n any subgroup of the covered p o p u l a t i o n . I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o d i s c o v e r how these f a c t o r s i n t e r a c t t o i n f l u e n c e the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of the enumerated migrant and non-migrant p o p u l a t i o n ; u n f o r t u n a t e l y i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to do more than s p e c u l a t e on the more d e t a i l e d aspects of the missed p o r t i o n s of the subgroups. In a d d i t i o n to the coverage e r r o r , non-response b i a s has been q u a n t i f i e d f o r the 1961 census. Stone {1969) found that of those covered, 5.4% of B.C.'s p o p u l a t i o n d i d not answer the ques t i o n used t o d e f i n e m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s . These non-respondents were over represented i n the 15-34, s i n g l e , E n g l i s h speaking, and at l e a s t secondary educated groups. Since these are some of the more m i g r a t i o n prone groups, t h e r e would appear t o be a tendency f o r the data from the covered p o p u l a t i o n t o under-represent some p o r t i o n s of the migrant p o p u l a t i o n . Thus between coverage e r r o r and non-response b i a s there appears to be a tendency to both 21 under- and over- r e p r e s e n t migrants i n the census data. The magnitude of the e r r o r f o r the s p e c i f i c groups cannot be estimated. Response v a r i a n c e , response b i a s , and e r r o r during coding and p r o c e s s i n g add to the magnitude of the coverage e r r o r and non-response b i a s but the author was unable to f i n d any i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t these types of e r r o r s y s t e m a t i c a l l y i n f l u e n c e migrant or non-migrant responses. U n f o r t u n a t e l y no e s t i m a t e s of the l e v e l of e r r o r among the v a r i o u s subgroups examined i n t h i s study are a v a i l a b l e . However, Dodds (1971) has estimated cummulative e r r o r f o r the 1971 data on the b a s i s of e r r o r s i n p r e v i o u s censuses. When the number of cases i s s m a l l the p o t e n t i a l e r r o r i s estimated t o be s u b s t a n t i a l : i n c e l l s with data from f i v e cases the r o o t mean sguare e r r o r i s i n the neighbourhood o f 11%, T h i s e r r o r drops as the number of cases i n c r e a s e s , but i s s t i l l a t a l e v e l o f 8-17S when measures a r e based on 100 cases. Although these e r r o r s are not e x t r a o r d i n a r y , the reader should be aware of t h e i r e x i s t e n c e and that coverage and non-response b i a s would appear to under-r e p r e s e n t (to an unknown degree) the lower income groups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n and migrants who are downtown d w e l l e r s , aged 20-25, and secondary s c h o o l educated. The One i n a Hundred Sample has two a d d i t i o n a l sources of e r r o r . F i r s t , i t i s a c t u a l l y a subsample of the respondents to the Long Form q u e s t i o n a i r e s that are completed by members of every t h i r d household and a l l members of c o l l e c t i v e households ( h o t e l s , boarding houses, e t c . ) . S ince migrants are more l i k e l y t o be l i v i n g i n c o l l e c t i v e households than non-migrants, the 22 respondents t o the Long Form g u e s t i o n a i r e s (and thus the One i n a Hundred Sample) w i l l o v er-represent the migrant p o p u l a t i o n . At the same time, an o r i g i n a l one i n t h i r t y - t h r e e and a t h i r d sub-sample of Long Form respondents used as a base f o r the One Per Cent Sample was weighted u n t i l i t was congruent with the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole i n terms of the p r o p o r t i o n s of s e v e r a l demographic s u b c a t e g o r i e s (see S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1975:2.3.3 and Brackstone, 1971 f o r d e t a i l s ) . Since the weighting procedure d i d not take economic f a c t o r s or migration s t a t u s i n t o account, i t i s probable t h a t weighting i n t r o d u c e d a new source of e r r o r i n these i n d i c a t o r s . Thus the e r r o r i n the data examined i n t h i s t h e s i s i s most l i k e l y l a r g e r than the e r r o r i n the normal census data and the weighting procedure has destroyed the randomness of the One i n a Hundred Sample. Bestrictipas^Imposed^by^the Data Source. Census data i s u t i l i z e d by a number of i n i v i d u a l s and agencies. As a r e s u l t , some of the q u e s t i o n s asked are not i d e a l l y s u i t e d t o m i g r a t i o n a n a l y s i s . In a d d i t i o n , s t a t u t o r y c o n f i d e n t i a l i t y requirements l i m i t the range of i n f o r m a t i o n r e l e a s e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada. Two of the major problems imposed by these c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are o u t l i n e d below. A n a t u r a l s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r t h i s s u b s e c t i o n i s the method o f d e f i n i n g m i g r a t i o n i t s e l f . The f i l e o f f e r s a v a r i e t y of d e f i n i t i o n s but they a l l share the common but minor f a u l t t h a t they measure only the m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s of the p o p u l a t i o n on June 1, 1971., As a r e s u l t they n e i t h e r count those t h a t entered the province but subsequently d i e d or l e f t nor p i n - p o i n t t h e year o f i n - m i g r a t i o n . The l a t t e r f a u l t i s more s e r i o u s because s e v e r a l Census q u e s t i o n s , most noteably those on income, r e f e r t o the previous calendar year. 'Recent in-migrants w i l l , then, r e p o r t earnings made i n whole or i n part i n t h e i r p r ovince of o r i g i n . As a r e s u l t , the i n -m i g r a t i o n r a t e s w i l l be s l i g h t l y i n a c c u r a t e and the income data somewhat impe r f e c t . However, these d e f i c i e n c i e s are not as important i n the a n a l y s i s of migrants/non-migrants as they would be i n a study of the causes or r a t e s o f m i g r a t i o n . Other c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the migration q u e s t i o n s t h a t prevent r i g o r o u s a n a l y s i s are t h e i r f a i l u r e t o i s o l a t e the geographic area from which a migrant came or the d i s t a n c e which he t r a v e l l e d . Consequently, i t i s i m p o s s i b l e f o r us to r e l a t e our a n a l y s i s t o province of o r i g i n or d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d . Thus the o r i g i n s of the data used i n t h i s t h e s i s make i t d i f f i c u l t t o examine some f a c t o r s t h a t are o f i n t e r e s t . At the same time, the data i s s u b j e c t t o some forms of systematic e r r o r . Compensating f o r these l i m i t a t i o n s a r e the wide a r r a y of v a r i a b l e s (57), the a b i l i t y to examine i n d i v i d u a l respondents, and the l e g i t i m a c y of the c o l l e c t i o n agency which tends to make the responses more r e l i a b l e than most forms of independent o r u n i v e r s i t y sponsored surveys. 2.3 METHODOLOGY The examination of the data i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s i s , i n a s t r i c t sense, more d e s c r i p t i v e than a n a l y t i c . Comparisons between migrants and non-migrants are c h i e f l y made through the use of b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s r a t h e r than more e x o t i c methods of s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s . T h i s s e c t i o n f i r s t o u t l i n e s the reasons f o r the use of b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s and then d i s c u s s e s the use of 24 s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s . The major reason f o r u s i n g b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s i s t h a t they are understandable. I n d i v i d u a l cases are s o r t e d and p l a c e d i n t o the a p p r o p r i a t e c e l l s of a t a b l e t o show the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the sample p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n the v a r i a b l e s under study. the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the t a b l e s i s s t r a i g h t - f o r w a r d and can be checked by the r e a d e r . Thus, t h i s form o f d e s c r i p t i v e examination does not r e q u i r e knowledge of s o p h i s t i c a t e d s t a t i s t i c a l techniques as a p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r understanding the a n a l y s i s . A second reason f o r u s i n q a •straight-forward*- form of a n a l y s i s a r i s e s from the f a c t t h a t t h i s i s one of the f i r s t s t u d i e s o f migrant/non-migrant performance i n which important v a r i b l e s , such as e d u c a t i o n , can be c o n t r o l l e d . The study i s then a f i r s t attempt to s o r t out the i n f l u e n c e of s e v e r a l f a c t o r s on the performance of migrants and non-migrants i n an expandinq economy. As w i l l be seen i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s , t h e r e i s seldom a c l e a r a _ p r i o r i i n d i c a t i o n of which i n f l u e n c e s w i l l be dominant. Consequently the a n a l y s i s must be more e x p l o r a t o r y than s t r u c t u r e d i n a h y p othesis t e s t i n q format. The p r e s e n t a t i o n of data i n t a b l u l a r form i s u s e f u l i n t h i s context s i n c e i t does not presuppose the type of r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t e x i s t s between v a r i a b l e s . At the same time, d e t a i l e d t a b l e s make the number of respondents i n each category e x p l i c i t and thus may provide l e g i t i m a t e s t a r t i n g p o i n t s f o r o t h e r r e s e a r c h e r s . The f i n a l reason f o r u s i n g a b i v a r i a t e t a b l e approach to the a n a l y s i s i s the i n c o n s i s t e n t l e v e l of measurement used t o d e f i n e s u b - c a t a g o r i e s w i t h i n v a r i a b l e s . For example, income and age are measured on a r a t i o s c a l e , education on an o r d i n a l , occupation on 25 a nomimal s c a l e . The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s i s not dependent on the l e v e l of measurement and each t a b l e makes the l e v e l of measurement of each v a r i a b l e e x p l i c i t . In the chapters t h a t f o l l o w , each f a c t o r i s t e s t e d f i r s t a t a high l e v e l of aggregation and then f o r more s p e c i f i c subgroups through the i n t r o d u c t i o n of r e v e l a n t c o n t r o l s . For example, the i n f l u e n c e of m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s on income i s i n i t i a l l y t e s t e d f o r the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole., Subsequent t a b l e s show i f the r e l a t i o n s h i p remains unchanged when age and e d u c a t i o n a r e h e l d c o nstant. When a r e l a t i o n s h i p i s a l t e r e d by the i n t r o d u c t i o n of a c o n t r o l l i n g v a r i a b l e i t i s reasonable t o assume t h a t t h a t v a r i a b l e p r o v i d e s an 'explanation* f o r the r e l a t i o n s h i p . That i s , i f d i f f e r e n c e s i n income l e v e l s f o r migrants and non-migrants disappear when e d u c a t i o n i s c o n t r o l l e d the unegual incomes should be c r e d i t e d t o an unegual mix of e d u c a t i o n a l attainment r a t h e r than the d i f f e r e n c e i n m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s . However, i f a d i f f e r e n c e c o n t i n u e s to h o l d r e g a r d l e s s of the c o n t r o l s i n t r o d u c e d i t i s assumed the d i f f e r e n c e i s caused by a r e s i d u a l f a c t o r , such as p e r s o n a l i n c e n t i v e , which cannot be measured with the a v a i l a b l e data (Nie et a l , 1975). Q The f i n a l t o p i c c o n s i d e r e d in t h i s s e c t i o n i s the use of s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s o f : s i g n i f i c a n c e . Two f a c t o r s must be c o n s i d e r e d when c h o s i n g t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e t o be a p p l i e d to the t a b l e s produced duri n g the examination of the d ata: f i r s t the meaning of the word • s i g n i f i c a n c e * and second the nature of the data source used t o generate the t a b l e s . , S i g n i f i c a n c e does not r e f e r t o the t h e o r e t i c a l importance of 26 the r e s u l t s c o ntained i n a t a b l e . Rather i t r e f e r s to the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c found t o e x i s t i n a sample a c t u a l l y e x i s t s i n the p o p u l a t i o n . Thus the statement t h a t a c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t at the .05 l e v e l i n d i c a t e s o n l y t h a t there i s a .95 p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p e x h i b i t e d i s shared by the p o p u l a t i o n from which the sample was drawn. I t says nothing about the meaning, importance, or even s t r e n g t h of the r e l a t i o n s h i p (Nie et a l , 1975:222). T h i s l e a d s t o a problem of i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n our case. S t r i c t l y speaking, we are d e a l i n g with a sample of a sample 1 and, as a r e s u l t , t e s t s o f s i g n i f i c a n c e r e l a t e o n l y to the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t a r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l e x i s t i n the one i n three 'Long Form' sample r a t h e r than the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole. However, the o r i g i n a l sample i s a l a r g e enough p o r t i o n of the t o t a l enumerated p o p u l a t i o n t o guarantee, with .95 p r o b a b i l i t y , t h a t the sample values are w i t h i n two standard d e v i a t i o n s of the p o p u l a t i o n values ( Dodds, 1971). T h e r e f o r e , i f the One i n a Hundred Sample was a random sample of the Long Form respondents, i t would not seem t o be t e r r i b l y m i s l e a d i n g t o assume t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e a p p l i e d t o the One i n a Hundred Sample r e f e r r e d d i r e c t l y t o the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole. On the other hand, i t would be unwise to i g n o r e the f a c t t h a t an indeterminant amount o f s l i p p a g e or loos e n e s s does e x i s t between the one i n three and the One i n a Hundred samples. For example, c o n s i d e r i n g o n l y sampling e r r o r , the w e i g h t i n g 2 cf the subsample drawn from the Long Form p o p u l a t i o n i n t r o d u c e s i n a c c u r a c i e s t hat have not been estimated. In cases where the accuracy of a sample i s unknown or s t r i c t random s e l e c t i o n has not been f o l l o w e d , i t has been argued t h a t any kind of s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t i s i n v a l i d and only adds "...a specious 27 appearance of accuracy..." t o t h e data ( A l f o r d , 1964).? Under these c o n d i t i o n s the onl y a c c e p t a b l e approach t o data a n a l y s i s i s a c l o s e examination of the tren d s e x h i b i t e d i n the sample. A l f o r d ' s general statements are t a c i t l y confirmed by the approaches adopted by George (1970) and Stone (1969). Both authors use census data f o r the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole d e r i v e d from weighting the responses t o the long from g u e s t i o n n a i r e of the 1961 Canadian census and both chose t o merely examine t a b l e s and draw c o n c l u s i o n s without a p p l y i n g s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e or a s s o c i a t i o n . , In a d d i t i o n , o t h e r s t u d i e s u s i n g sample s i z e s t h a t approximate one per cent o f a p o p u l a t i o n have not a p p l i e d t e s t s o f s i g n i f i c a n c e (Courchene, 1974; Kiker and Trayham, 1977; and Vanderkamp, 1973). As a r e s u l t , i t was decided t o apply no t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e to the t a b l e s presented i n the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s . In summary, t h i s s e c t i o n has i n d i c a t e d t h a t the d e s i r e to make the t h e s i s as e a s i l y understandable as p o s s i b l e , combined with the u n c e r t a i n t y over the connections between m i g r a t i o n s t a t u s and performance and the d e s i r e t o d i s p l a y as much of the data as p o s s i b l e , has l e a d t o the s e l e c t i o n of b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s as the method of a n a l y s i s . In a d d i t i o n , the source o f the data and approach adopted by p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s with s i m i l a r samples l e a d t o the d e c i s i o n not to apply s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s o f s i g n i f i c a n c e t o the t a b l e s presented i n t h e c h a p t e r s which f o l l o w . 2.4 THE DEFINITION OF MIGRATION S e c t i o n 2.2 and 2.3 have d e s c r i b e d the data used i n the 28 f o l l o w i n g chapters and the reasons t h a t no t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e are i n c l u d e d . T h i s s e c t i o n e s t a b l i s h e s the census questions t h a t have been used t o decide what c o n s t i t u e s 'migration *. T h i s s t e p i s made necessary by the f a c t t h a t the term 'migration* dees not have a s i n g l e d e f i n i t i o n . For example i t may be de f i n e d as movement over a s p e c i f i e d d i s t a n c e , movement ac r o s s j u r i s d i c t i o n a l boundaries, or movement between s e l f i d e n t i f i e d communities (Peterson, 1968). The l a c k of an e x p l i c i t s p a t i a l dimension i n the One i n a Hundred Sample makes i t necessary t o d e f i n e m i g r a t i o n on the b a s i s of movement across j u r i s d i c t i o n a l boundaries. S i t h i n t h i s l i m i t a t i o n , the data i s s t r u c t u r e d i n a manner th a t permits d i v i s i o n of the respondents i n t o s e v e r a l mutually e x c l u s i v e migrant subgroups such as those who moved i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l l y , i n t r a - r e g i o n a l l y , i n t e r - r e g i o n a l l y , i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l l y and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l l y . In a d d i t i o n , i t i s p o s s i b l e to segregate those i n d i v i d u a l s who l i v e d i n the same dw e l l i n g i n 1971 and 1966. The t a b l e s i n t h i s t h e s i s t h e r e f o r e have a maximum of s i x mi g r a t i o n c a t e g o r i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g i n d i v i d u a l s who were r e s i d e n t s o f B.C. i n 1971 and who i n 1966 had l i v e d i n e i t h e r : the same d w e l l i n g , a d i f f e r e n t d w e l l i n g i n the same m u n i c i p a l i t y , a d i f f e r e n t m u n i c i p a l i t y i n the same r e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t , a d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t w i t h i n the pro v i n c e , a d i f f e r e n t p r o v i n c e , or a d i f f e r e n t country. These c a t e g o r i e s can be combined i n any manner d e s i r e d and, as a r e s u l t , the data can be examined a t s e v e r a l l e v e l s of s p e c i f i c i t y . For example, i n the t h e s i s the general terms 'indigenes* and 'non-migrants* are used t o s i g n i f y a l l i n d i v i d u a l s who r e s i d e d i n the province i n both 1966 and 1971 even though they may have moved i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l l y during t h i s 29 p e r i o d . However, i n most t a b l e s indigenes have been disaggregated i n t o non-movers, i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l , i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l , and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l migrants i n order t o d i s c o v e r i f any of these subgroups c o n s i s t e n t l y perform d i f f e r e n t l y than others. S i m i l a r l y , the g e n e r a l term •in-migrants* i s used t o d e s c r i b e a l l i n d i v i d u a l s e n t e r i n g the p r o v i n c e over the 1966-1971 p e r i o d even though i n most t a b l e s the d i s t i n c t i o n i s made between i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants because they are from d i s t i n c t l y d i f f e r e n t sources and because the c o n t r o l of f o r e i g n i n - m i g r a t i o n i s much more d i r e c t than the c o n t r o l of i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n . While d e s c r i b i n g the d e f i n i t i o n o f migration used i n the t h e s i s , i t should be emphasized that t h e r e i s not n e c e s s a r i l y a p e r f e c t c o r r e l a t i o n between the type of j u r i s d i c t i o n a l boundary cross e d and the a c t u a l d i s t a n c e migrated. For example, mi g r a t i o n between A l b e r t a and B.C. i m p l i e s , but does not n e c e s s a r i l y r e q u i r e , movement over l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s than i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n w i t h i n B.C. To be s t r i c t l y accurate i t i s , t h e r e f o r e , necessary to r e f e r t o the type o f m i g r a t i o n r a t h e r than the i m p l i e d d i s t a n c e of migration. The f i n a l f a c t o r t o be considered i n t h i s s e c t i o n i s the r a t i o n a l e f o r choosing to d e f i n e migration i n terms of p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e i n 1966 r a t h e r than i n terms of province o f b i r t h or province i n which the h i g h e s t s c h o o l grade was completed. One of the problems with the l a t t e r two d e f i n i t i o n s i s t h e i r i n a b i l i t y to measure the d i f f e r e n t types o f i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n . At the same time, the 'place of r e s i d e n c e i n 1966* i s the o n l y d e f i n i t i o n t h a t i n t r o d u c e s a temporal element and thus a l l o w s us t o examine i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants a f t e r a 30 Table I: The P r o p o r t i o n o f the 1971 B.C. Po p u l a t i o n i n Various Migrant Grops.. 1971 POPULATION MIGRANT T o t a l Working Age Working Age Male GROUP Po p u l a t i o n P o p u l a t i o n Household Heads Non- 43. 9% 41.8% 40. 2% Movers (8586) (4749) (1235) I n t r a - 22.5% 23.0% 23.7% Munic. , (4396) (2613) (728) I n t e r - 6.3% 6.5% 8.0% flunic. (1235) (742) (244) I n t e r - 11.3% 11.3% 11. 2% Region. (2207) (1282) (344) I n t e r - 10. 1% 10.3% 10. 5% Pro v. (196 8) (1173) (323) I n t e r - 5. 9% 7.1% 6. 4% Nation. (116 1) (800) (197) T o t a l (19553) (11359) (3071) Source: A n a l y s i s of One i n a Hundred Sample ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1975) p a r t i c u l a r p e r i o d o f time i n the province (assuming a co n s t a n t flow, the average r e s i d e n c e w i l l be e q u i v a l e n t t o 2 1/2 years) r a t h e r than aggregating i n d i v i d u a l s who have been i n the province f o r widely v a r y i n g and unknown per i o d s o f time. F i n a l l y , the use of data f o r r e c e n t migrants i s p r e f e r r e d because i t compares migrants and non-migrants a t a time as c l o s e as p o s s i b l e to the p e r i o d of a n a l y s i s . O v e r a l l then, although a study of a l l migrants i n the province i n 1971 vs the B.C. born or educated p o p u l a t i o n may be u s e f u l , the ch o i c e was made to analyse the impacts of migration d u r i n g the 1966-1971 p e r i o d because i t seems more germaine to the f o r m u l a t i o n o f new p o l i c y r e l a t i n g to migr a t i o n than an examination of the present s t a t u s of people 31 whose migrati o n to B.C. oc c u r r e d before, during, or immediately a f t e r such " a t y p i c a l " p e r i o d s as the world wars and the depression. Thus, f o r the purpose o f t h i s t h e s i s , m i g r a t i o n i s d e f i n e d a c c o r d i n g to the type of j u r i s d i c t i o n a l boundaries c r o s s e d and r e f e r s o n l y t o r e s i d e n t s who were migrants or non-migrants i n the 1966-1971 p e r i o d . The breakdown of the 1971 p o p u l a t i o n i n t o migrant subgroups i s shown i n Table I. 2.5 B.C. DUBING THE 1966-1971 CENSUS PERIOD Confirming t h a t B.C. d i d , i n f a c t , experience economic growth during the 1966-1971 census period i s the l a s t task undertaken i n t h i s chapter. Since t h i s i s e s s e n t i a l l y a f o r m a l i t y , only three i n d i c a t o r s w i l l be co n s i d e r e d : m i g r a t i o n , s i z e of the l a b o u r f o r c e , and indexes of employment i n s e v e r a l s e c t o r s . M i g r a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d with a growth i n employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s because each employed in-migrant f i l l s a p o s i t i o n t h a t e i t h e r was crea t e d or became vacant during the time p e r i o d under study. B.C.'s ten year net i n - m i g r a t i o n has tended t o vary c y c l i c a l l y s i n c e a t l e a s t 1921-1931 (Anderson, 1966), 1961-1971 being a peak p e r i o d (ECC, 1977). I f the flow of f a m i l i e s with c h i l d r e n are a constant p r o p o r t i o n of the migrant stream as a whole, the bulk of t h e i n - m i g r a t i o n i n t h i s l a s t peak perio d occurred d u r i n g 1966-1971 (Horna, 1974). The One i n a Hundred Sample data i n d i c a t e s t h a t the gross i n - m i g r a t i o n over the f i v e year p e r i o d was i n the order o f th r e e hundred thousand people. Thus i t would appear 1966-1971 was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by expansion o f 32 the p r o v i n c i a l economy, Fignre 1 shows t h a t the B.C. l a b o u r f o r c e grew s u b s t a n t i a l l y over the census p e r i o d . The number of employed i n d i v i d u a l s i n c r e a s e d from s l i g h t l y over 600,000 i n 1966 to approximately 850,000 i n 1971. The number unemployed a l s o i n c r e a s e d over the p e r i o d but not very d r a m a t i c a l l y , being r e l a t i v e l y constant from mid-1969 to the time of the census. F i g u r e 2 shows the changes i n the r e l a t i v e number employed i n s e v e r a l s e c t o r s of the p r o v i n c i a l economy. / The s e r v i c e s e c t o r grew s u b s t a n t i a l l y over the p e r i o d and while i n d i c e s f o r both manufacturing and the i n d u s t r i a l composite a l s o grew, t h e i r advance was at a much slower r a t e . The c o n s t r u c t i o n index was s l i g h t l y lower i n 1972 than i t had been i n 1966. w i t h i n the p e r i o d t h e r e was a peak i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d i c a t o r t h a t c o i n c i d e d with the maximum e f f o r t on the 8.A.C. Bennett Dam and a trough i n 1970, the year the f i n a l powerline from the dam was completed {B.C. Hydro, 1977) However, the c o n s t r u c t i o n employment index rose between 1970 and the time of the census and thus each of the economic s e c t o r s represented i n F i g u r e 2 had higher employment l e v e l s than i n the preceding year while the t o t a l employed labour f o r c e expanded over the e n t i r e p e r i o d . In a d d i t i o n there were no major s t r i k e s i n the t h r e e months before or the month immediately a f t e r the census day. O v e r a l l , the p r o v i n c e o f B.C. experienced employment growth over the census period and, d e s p i t e a longer term decrease i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n employment index, employment i n a l l s e c t o r s i n c r e a s e d from 1970 to 1971. 33 Figure 1 Labour Force, Employment and Unemployment i n B.C..1962-72 T o t a l l a b o u r Force **" :Employed Labour Force 196; 1964 ' 1966 1968 1970 1000 900 1/) -a ro </) o 800 '£ +-> 700 E o 1— n. 600 500 1972 Figure 2 Average Annual Index o f Numbers Employed i n S e l e c t e d I n d u s t r i e s B r i t i s h Columbia 1962-1972 y»<fservice c o n s t r u c t i o n .** ,225 200 175 Imanufacturing _» L. 1962 -> l _ 1964 CD O 150 ^ - I O C X x / - J cu X J 100 1966 1968 1970 1972 Both Tables from Trade and Commerce 1972 34 2.6 SUMMARY The data used t o examine the areas of i n t e r e s t o u t l i n e d i n the f i r s t chapter are c o n t a i n e d i n the I n d i v i d u a l F i l e of S t a t i s t i c s Canada's P u b l i c Use Sample Tapes. The f i l e c o n t a i n s i n d i v i d u a l r e c o rds of what i s , i n e f f e c t , a one i n a hundred sample of the p o p u l a t i o n of B.C. on June 1, 1971. Coverage e r r o r s of an estimated 10% f o r some subgroups combine with other non-sampling and sampling e r r o r s to y i e l d f i g u r e s t h a t , i f disaggregated to c a t e g o r i e s c o n t a i n i n g only f i v e cases may vary s u b s t a n t i a l l y from the t r u e p o p u l a t i o n values. In a d d i t i o n a weighting procedure was used which destroyed the randomness of the data and i n t r o d u c e s an unknown e r r o r i n t o the m i g r a t i o n and economic v a r i a b l e s . The d i f f e r e n c e s between migrants and non-migrants are t o be t e s t e d through the use of b i v a r i a t e t a b l e s i n order to r e v e a l as much o f the data as p o s s i b l e to the reader. Due to the non-random method used t o s e l e c t the data, no t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e are a p p l i e d to the data. The chapter a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h a t m i g r a t i o n i s d e f i n e d i n terras of j u r i s d i c t i o n a l boundaries c r o s s e d and r e f e r s only t o movement during the 1966-1971 p e r i o d , a p e r i o d which i s shown to have been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a g e n e r a l expansion of the employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n the p r o v i n c i a l economy. FOOTNOTES As o u t l i n e d e a r l i e r , the One i n a Hundred Sample i s d e r i v e d from a one i n t h i r t y - t h r e e and a t h i r d sample of the Long Form g u e s t i o n n a i r e responses. I t i s , then, a subsample of the Long Form q u e s t i o n n a i r e sample of the covered p o p u l a t i o n . Also as o u t l i n e d e a r l i e r , the One i n a Hundred Sample arose from an o r i g i n a l sample of the Long Form respondents which was subsequently weighted u n t i l i t corresponded with the t o t a l enumerated p o p u l a t i o n i n terms of s e v e r a l demographic v a r i a b l e s . S i n c e there was no weighting of migrant or economic v a r i a b l e s i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to estimate the e r r o r t h i s weighting introduced to the d i s t r i b u t i o n of values w i t h i n these v a r i a b l e s . In a d d i t i o n , the Long Form sample i t s e l f was conducted i n a manner that tended t o i n t r o d u c e a systematic e r r o r i n i t s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s . B l a l o c k (1960:410) expresses the same thought i n a more d e t a i l e d manner: "The major disadvantage of n o n p r o b a b i l i t y sampling i s t h a t se can o b t a i n no v a l i d e stimate of the r i s k of e r r o r . T h e r e f o r e , s t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e i s not l e g i t i m a t e and should not be used." There i s no proof t h a t the dam caused the peak but there appears t o be a s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n between the labour f o r c e c o n s t r u c t i n g the dam (200 i n 1961 to 4700 i n 1966), the powerhouse (2200 i n 1968 and 200 i n 1969), the completion of the powerlines i n 1970 and the shape of the c o n s t r u c t i o n employment i n d e x (Numbers from B.C. Hydro, 1977). 36 CHAPTER 3—RELATIVE DEMAND FOR SOCIAL SERVICES Chapter One e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t no d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s o f t h e r e l a t i v e performance of migrants and non-migrants i n an expanding r e g i o n e x i s t and o u t l i n e d t h e major areas o f i n t e r e s t t o an expanding province. Chapter two o u t l i n e d the l i m i t a t i o n s o f the data source used i n t h i s study and e s t a b l i s h e d that B.C. had an expanding economy over the peri o d f o r which the data was c o l l e c t e d . T h i s i s the f i r s t of t h r e e a n a l y s i s chapters each of which addresses a s p e c i f i c a s p e c t of the migrant/non-migrant s i t u a t i o n . T h i s chapter seeks t o e s t i m a t e the r a t e a t which in-migrants demand s o c i a l s e r v i c e s i n order t o e s t a b l i s h whether t h e i r demand i s high or low r e l a t i v e to t h a t o f the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . The chapter has s i x s e c t i o n s . The i n t r o d u c t i o n i s f o l l o w e d by a b r i e f statement of the reasons f o r i n t e r e s t i n t h i s area and the d i f f i c u l t y of a c c u r a t e l y measuring the demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s . The t h i r d s e c t i o n e x p l a i n s the p r o x i e s developed as i n d i c a t o r s of the demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s and the f o u r t h e x p l a i n s the c o n f l i c t i n g e x p e c t a t i o n s generated from e x t r a p o l a t i n g some f i n d i n g s of previous m i g r a t i o n r e s e a r c h . The f i f t h s e c t i o n examines the data on the p r o x i e s while the s i x t h and f i n a l s e c t i o n draws c o n c l u s i o n s about the r e l a t i v e demands f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s imposed by the in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n . 3.1 INTRODUCTION The t h e s i s as a whole examines a sample of the 1971 B.C. p o p u l a t i o n i n order t o p r o v i d e a more complete p i c t u r e of i n d i g e n e s and i n - m i g r a n t s i n an expanding r e g i o n than has been a v a i l a b l e i n p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s . The two f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s c o n s i d e r income and employment while t h i s chapter focuses on the 37 demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s among the indigenous and in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n s . The two p r o x i e s used t o compare the r e l a t i v e demands f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s are the r a t i o s o f dependents to income earners and the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n s r e c e i v i n g d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payments. 3.2 THE ISSUE The importance of the r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s can be a p p r e c i a t e d from an examination of the p r o v i n c i a l budget. Expenditures by the departments of Health, Education, and Human Resources r e q u i r e d over h a l f the t o t a l p r o v i n c i a l expenditure i n each of the years 1966-1976 (Department of Finance, annual). By 1976, the p r o v i s i o n of these s o c i a l s e r v i c e s consumed 5755 of the p r o v i n c i a l budget. T h e r e f o r e , some c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s i s an important aspect o f the comparison of migrants and non-migrants i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The i s s u e i s whether i n - m i g r a n t s have a higher or lower demand f o r these s o c i a l s e r v i c e s than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . I f in-migrants have a higher demand, i n - m i g r a t i o n w i l l be l i k e l y t o impose a r e l a t i v e l y high c o s t on the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n and p o l i c i e s t o discourage i n - m i g r a n t s with high l e v e l s of demand f o r these s o c i a l s e r v i c e s from e n t e r i n g the pro v i n c e may be considered. I f in-m i g r a n t s have a lower demand, i n - m i g r a t i o n w i l l tend to reduce the o v e r a l l per c a p i t a demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s and, as a r e s u l t , reducing the i n - f l o w of those using p r o v i n c i a l l y p r ovided s e r v i c e s w i l l not be a c e n t r a l i s s u e . There are, however, problems i n measuring the demand f o r s o c i a l 38 s e r v i c e s among in-mi g r a n t s and i n d i g e n e s . The c o l l e c t i o n of the data r e q u i r e d i n order to f u l l y and a c c u r a t e l y assess the per c a p i t a c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g these s e r v i c e s t o i n d i g e n e s and i n - m i g r a n t s i s w e l l beyond, the l i m i t s of t h i s t h e s i s . P a r t o f the problem i s t h a t a complete accounting would r e q u i r e the margJLnai c o s t s of p r o v i d i n q s e r v i c e s to in-migrants to be c a l c u l a t e d and t h r e e f a c t o r s make i t d i f f i c u l t t o a c c u r a t e l y e s t a b l i s h these marginal c o s t s . F i r s t , the marginal c o s t of p r o v i d i n g a s e r v i c e v a r i e s with both the type of s e r v i c e p r o v i d e d (Riew, 1974) and the s i z e c f the p o p u l a t i o n served (Hamilton and Ried, 1977). Second, i n s p e c i f i c c a s e s , the cost w i l l depend on the a b i l i t y o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s t o provide the a d d i t i o n a l s e r v i c e s . I f a d d i t i o n a l or expanded f a c i l i t i e s are r e g u i r e d t h e i r c o s t w i l l be v a r i a b l e and w i l l depend upon s e r v i c e design t h r e s h o l d s (Kolowski and Hughes, 1972) and s i t e s p e c i f i c f a c t o r s (Strong, Lamb, and Nelson), T h i r d , the range and c o s t of s e r v i c e s r e g u i r e d v a r i e s with stage i n the l i f e c y c l e (Drieqer, 1972; Mushkin and Weisbrod, 1963). Thus i t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t , i f a t a l l p o s s i b l e , t o a c c u r a t e l y e s t i m a t e the t o t a l marginal c o s t to the province of p r o v i d i n g h e a l t h , e d u c a t i o n , and w e l f a r e s e r v i c e s to the in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n . A l e s s exact approach to e s t i m a t i n g the r e l a t i v e per c a p i t a c o s t s of p r o v i d i n q s o c i a l s e r v i c e s to the indigenous and i n -migrant p o p u l a t i o n s c o u l d be developed i f i t was assumed that the marginal c o s t s e q u a l l e d the average cost of s e r v i c e p r o v i s i o n and i f c o s t data were a v a i l a b l e f o r s p e c i f i c subgroups of the combined p o p u l a t i o n . That i s , c a l c u l a t i n g the per c a p i t a c o s t of s e r v i c e p r o v i s i o n t o each subgroup i n the combined p o p u l a t i o n , m u l t i p l y i n g these per c a p i t a c o s t s by the number of i n d i v i d u a l s 39 the indigenous and in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n s had i n each subgroup, summing the c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g s e r v i c e s t o each subgroup of each p o p u l a t i o n and then d i v i d i n g these sums by the t o t a l number of i n d i v i d u a l s i n each p o p u l a t i o n would y i e l d f i g u r e s t h a t approximated the r e l a t i v e per c a p i t a c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g s e r v i c e s to the indigenous and in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n . However, the high l e v e l of g e n e r a l i t y of the a v a i l a b l e data makes a d e t a i l e d comparison u s i n g t h i s approach i m p o s s i b l e . For example, U.S. data i s a v a i l a b l e which shows per c a p i t a h e a l t h c o s t s vary not o n l y with age but a l s o with sex, income, and s i z e of community of r e s i d e n c e (HES, 1975); s i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d not be found f o r B.C. nor c o u l d i n f o r m a t i o n on the i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s between these v a r i a b l e s be found i n any j u r i s d i c t i o n . 1 As a r e s u l t , the per c a p i t a c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g p r o v i n c i a l l y funded s e r v i c e s to i n -migrants cannot be compared d i r e c t l y with the c o s t of p r o v i d i n g these s e r v i c e s t o i n d i g e n e s . Consequently, a l e s s r e f i n e d estimate of the r e l a t i v e demand f o r these s e r v i c e s among i n -migrants and i n d i g e n e s must be developed. 3.3 THE SEASURES Two i n d i c a t o r s t h a t measure the r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s generated by i n - m i g r a n t s are described i n t h i s s e c t i o n . The f i r s t i s simply a comparison of the modified 'dependency r a t i o * o f the in-migrant and indigenous p o p u l a t i o n s . The second i s the per centage of the in-migrant and indigenous p o p u l a t i o n (by age) whose major source of income i s d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payments. 40 The 'dependency r a t i o * of a p o p u l a t i o n , c a l c u l a t e d simply by adding the p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n under the age of f o u r t e e n to the p o r t i o n over the age o f s i x t y - f i v e and then d i v i d i n g the sum by the number of people aged f i f t e e n t o s i x t y - f i v e , has been used as a crude proxy f o r the number of people with the h i g h e s t p r o b a b i l i t y of drawing on government s e r v i c e s per person of working age (ECC, 1977; Serow,1974). The One i n a Hundred Sample data allows the d e f i n i t i o n of an i n d i c a t o r t h a t provides a more acc u r a t e measure of the r a t i o of non-income ea r n e r s drawing on p r o v i n c i a l h e a l t h , e d u c a t i o n , or w e l f a r e s e r v i c e s per income earner i n the p o p u l a t i o n . In order to p r o v i d e a more accurate r a t i o of dependents to independents than has been used i n previous s t u d i e s (ECC,1977; Serow, 1974), the d e f i n i t i o n of the dependency r a t i o i s modified by r e d u c i n g the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n c l a s s e d as independents. F i r s t , the age bracket of the independent group i s narrowed to i n c l u d e o n l y those aged 16-65 so t h a t the boundaries c o i n c i d e with the p r o v i n c i a l minimum l e g a l working age and the common age of r e t i r e m e n t . T h i s expands the d e f i n i t i o n of young dependents t o a l l i n d i v i d u a l s age f i f t e e n or l e s s but does not a l t e r t the d e f i n t i o n of e l d e r l y dependents. Next, a l l heads of households who are unemployed or whose major source of income i s t r a n s f e r payments are t r a n s f e r r e d i n t o the dependent catego r y s i n c e these i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l have a higher p r o b a b i l i t y of drawing on p r o v i n c i a l w e l f a r e when unemployed than other f a m i l y members. S i m i l a r l y students aged 16-25 are c l a s s e d as dependents unless they have an income g r e a t e r than $2,000/year. 2 In a d d i t i o n any person aged 16-65, not heading a household, and r e c e i v i n g a t r a n s f e r payment i s c o n s i d e r e d dependent.. The f i n a l group t h a t 41 would be c l a s s e d as independents i n previous d e f i n i t i o n s of the dependency r a t i o but who are c o n s i d e r e d dependents i n the r e f i n e d d e f i n i t i o n used i n t h i s t h e s i s (because they use h e a l t h s e r v i c e s but do not c o n t r i b u t e t o p r o v i n c i a l revenues) are nonhousehold heads who r e c e i v e n e i t h e r an income nor t r a n s f e r payments. Independents are thus any person aged 16-65 whose major source of income a r i s e s from e i t h e r wages and s a l a r i e s ; income from s e l f -employment; or investment income. With these m o d i f i c a t i o n s the dependency r a t i o becomes a more accurate i n d i c a t o r of the demand f o r government s e r v i c e s per income earner. Since the two l a r g e s t sources of p r o v i n c i a l government revenues are income and s a l e s taxes (Dept. of Finance, annual) and s i n c e income earners w i l l c o n t r i b u t e more to these taxes than i n d i v i d u a l s c l a s s e d as dependents, a comparison of the r a t i o s f o r the indigenous and in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n s w i l l i n d i c a t e whether in-migrants tend t o have a higher r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s than i n d i g e n e s and thus whether i n -mig r a t i o n tends to i n c r e a s e or decrease t h e per c a p i t a c o s t of s u p p l y i n g s o c i a l s e r v i c e s t o the aggregate p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n . The second i n d i c a t o r used i n t h i s chapter a l s o measures the degree of r e l i a n c e on government s e r v i c e s . The i n d i c a t o r i s the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n who r e c e i v e the m a j o r i t y o f t h e i r annual income from t r a n s f e r payments. The i n d i c a t o r thus measures d i r e c t dependency on government. T h i s i s the onl y d i r e c t measure of dependency a v a i l a b l e i n the sample data. Although i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to d i s t i n g u i s h with c e r t a i n t y among the younger age groups whether the t r a n s f e r payments a r i s e from f e d e r a l or p r o v i n c i a l sources, the p r o p o r t i o n of t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s among the indigenous and i n -42 migrant p o p u l a t i o n s w i l l p r o v i d e a secondary measure of the r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s . In a d d i t i o n , the examination of the p r o p o r t i o n of ten year age groups who are r e c i p i e n t s w i l l i n d i c a t e any d i f f e r e n c e s i n the age s p e c i f i c demands of the indigenous and in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n s Neither as s p e c i f i c a d e f i n i t i o n o f the depencdency r a t i o nor i n f o r m a t i o n on the d i r e c t dependency of i n - m i g r a n t s and i n d i g e n e s has been a v a i l a b l e i n p r i o r s t u d i e s . As a r e s u l t , the a n a l y s i s of these i n d i c a t o r s w i l l p r ovide the f i r s t d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on the r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r i v e s among i n -migrants and indigenes i n an h i s t o r i c a l l y expanding r e g i o n . 3.4 THE EXPECTATION T h i s s e c t i o n summarizes the f i n d i n g s and i m p l i c a t i o n s of previous s t u d i e s . Serow (1974), using h i s age based d e f i n i t i o n o f the dependency r a t i o 3 found t h a t m i g r a t i o n d i d not s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r the dependency r a t i o of a r e c e i v i n g r e g i o n , The r a t i o used i n t h i s t h e s i s i s more r e f i n e d and thus may y i e l d d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s . F a c t o r s have been i d e n t i f i e d which would suggest in-migrants have a higher dependency r a t i o than non-migrants., The flow of migrants has been found to i n c l u d e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e numbers of people who are i n the younger c o h o r t s of the labour f o r c e (George, 1970; Stone,1969) and i t i s not uncommon f o r the younger groups (16—25) to experience above average l e v e l s of unemployment.* T h i s , combined with the tendency f o r most migrants t o move i n search o f a j o b , 5 suggests t h a t a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number of r e c e n t in-migrants experience a t l e a s t 43 s h o r t term unemployment and thus would be c l a s s e d as dependents. On a more s p e c u l a t i v e l e v e l , t r a d i t i o n a l v a l u e s among i n t e r -n a t i o n a l immigrants may reduce the l a b o u r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s of women (Webster, 1977). These values would act t o r a i s e the dependency r a t i o o f immigrants by r e d u c i n g the number of independent non-heads i n the p o p u l a t i o n . On the other hand, the m o b i l i t y o f migrants (Anderson, 1966) suggests that a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l number of those who cou l d not f i n d work would stay i n the province f o r any l e n g t h of t i m e — t h i s tendency may compensate f o r the high unemployment r a t e of the younger segments of the p o p u l a t i o n . At the same time, m i g r a t i o n streams have been found t o c o n t a i n a high e r p r o p o r t i o n of young and married people than the nom-migrant p o p u l a t i o n (Greenwood, 1975; George, 1970; Stone, 1969)—and at t h i s stage of t h e i r l i f e c y c l e women tend to have a higher labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e than women i n l a t e r stages o f t h e i r l i f e c y c l e (Hayghe, 1974). Thus the in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n would be l i k e l y t o have a higher r a t i o o f independent non-heads than the ind i g e n e s s i n c e the women i n the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be more ev e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d among the v a r i o u s age groups. In a d d i t i o n , the in-migrants would tend t o have fewer c h i l d r e n to count as dependents than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . F i n a l l y , migrants g e n e r a l l y have a lower r a t i o o f those over s i x t y - f i v e than non-movers (Shaw, 1975). Although B.C.*s r e p u t a t i o n as the r e t i r e m e n t c a p i t a l of Canada would suggest the r a t i o of i n d i v i d u a l s over the age o f s i x t y - f i v e among i n - m i g r a n t s t o B.C. i s much higher than that i n the n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n stream, the p r o p o r t i o n o f »dependents* over the age of s i x t y - f i v e i s lower among in-migrants than i n d i g e n e s ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1975a). O v e r a l l , then, no c l e a r - c u t p r e d i c t i o n can be made on e i t h e r the r e l a t i v e values of the modified dependency r a t i o or the p o r t i o n r e c e i v i n g t r a n s f e r payments. There are, however, some i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t the i n -migrants w i l l have lower r a t i o s than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . , 3.5 THE FINDINGS T h i s s e c t i o n examines the data r e l a t i n g to the demand f o r s e r v i c e s as measured by the dependency r a t i o and the number of r e c i p i e n t s o f d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payments. The dependency r a t i o i s a more general i n d i c a t o r and, as a r e s u l t , i s examined be f o r e the more s p e c i f i c t e s t o f d i r e c t dependence. The modified r a t i o i s c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the number income earners 16 t o 65 years of age i n t o the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l s i n a p o p u l a t i o n who are c l a s s e d as dependents because they e i t h e r d i r e c t l y u t i l i z e government s e r v i c e s or have a high p r o b a b i l i t y of us i n g these s e r v i c e s . The q u e s t i o n under examination i n the f i r s t p a r t o f t h i s s e c t i o n i s , then: does the migrant p o p u l a t i o n e x h i b i t a dependency r a t i o t h a t i s egual to or gr e a t e r than t h a t o f the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . A f t e r t h i s g u e s t i o n has been answered the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n s among the v a r i o u s s u b - c a t e g o r i e s of dependency are examined more c l o s e l y . In order t o provide a comparison between the dependency r a t i o d e f i n e d by Serow (197ft) 6 and the more p r e c i s e d e f i n i t i o n formulated i n t h i s t h e s i s , both i n d i c a t o r s have been c a l c u l a t e d and are presented i n Table I I . As a n t i c i p a t e d , the d e f i n i t i o n of dependency used i n t h i s t h e s i s r e s u l t s i n a s u b s t a n t i a l l y higher 45 r a t i o of dependents per income earner than the measure used by Serov, TABLE I i i M i g r a t i o n S t a t u s vs Serow's (1974) and and a Refined D e f i n i t i o n o f the Dependency Ratio MIGRATION DEPENDENCY RATIO STATUS Serov Refined A l l Indigenes .61 1.75 I n t e r -P r o v i n c i a l .49 1.46 Migrants I n t e r -N a t i o n a l .24 1.26 Migrants S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s of the I n d i v i d u a l F i l e of the One i n a Hundred Sample ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1975) 7 Table I I shows that t h e dependency r a t i o i s not egual f o r migrants and non-migrants. Regardless of whether Serow's or a r e f i n e d d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e dependency r a t i o i s used, the r a t i o i s higher f o r those who •remained i n * the province than f o r those who moved i n t o the province from e i t h e r the r e s t of Canada or the remainder of the world. T h i s suggests the t e n t a t i v e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i n - m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g the 1966-1971 perio d b e n e f i t e d the province and i t s r e s i d e n t s by reducing the per c a p i t a dependency r a t i o and thus the per c a p i t a c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g s o c i a l s e r v i c e s . : However, such a c o n c l u s i o n c o n t a i n s the i m p l i c i t assumption that i n - m i g r a t i o n i s not r e s p o n s i b l e f o r any of the dependents i n the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . That i s , i t assumes i n - m i g r a t i o n n e i t h e r pushed any of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n from the independent t o the dependent category nor prevented any of the dependents from 46 Table I l l r Dependency R a t i o s and C a t e g o r i e s of M i g r a t i o n S t a t u s TYPE OF MOVE DEPENDENCY RATIO f Refined) Same d w e l l i n g (no move) A l l i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l 1.51 1. 98 -moved w i t h i n a m u n i c i p a l i t y -moved between m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h i n a d i s t r i c t -moved between r e g i o n a l 1.50 1.37 1.63 d i s t r i c t s Moved to B. C. from r e s t of Canada Moved to B. C. from r e s t of world 1.26 1.46 becoming independent. The f i g u r e s i n Table I I I p r o v i d e t e n t a t i v e support f o r t h i s assumption. when the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i s d i v i d e d i n t o subgroups, each c l a s s of i n t r a p r o v i n c i a l migrants has a dependency r a t i o t h a t more c l o s e l y approximates t h a t o f i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants than t h a t of non-movers. Even in d i g e n e s who moved but remained w i t h i n a l o c a l l a b o u r market over the census peri o d ( i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers) have a dependency r a t i o t h a t i s only m a r g i n a l l y higher than t h a t of i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants but which i s n o t i c e a b l y lower than t h a t of non-movers. Since 53% o f the t o t a l indigenous p o p u l a t i o n are non-movers, the d i f f e r e n c e between the dependency r a t i o s of the aggregate indigenous p o p u l a t i o n and the in-migrants, e v i d e n t i n Table I I , may t e n t a t i v e l y be a s c r i b e d to the p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of non-movers r a t h e r than an impact of i n -m i g r a t i o n Table IV shows the d e t a i l e d d i s t r i b u t i o n of dependent and independent i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h i n each migrant c l a s s . Comparing the dependents i n the non-mover p o p u l a t i o n with those of the i n t r a -TABLE IV TYPES OF DEPENDENCY VS MIGRATION STATUS (VERTICAL PERCENTAGES) .Dependents Less thin 16 More than 65 Head-Unemployed * Head-Transfer Payment Recipient Students, with Incomes >$2000/annum Non-Head Transfer Payment Recipient Non-Head with No Income Independents Independent Head, Income <$3000 Independent Wead, Income >$3000 Independent Non-Head' Totals No Response Horizontal % of total dependents Horizontal # of total independents Non-Mover. Intra-Provincial 25.4 (2016) 14.9 (1186) 2.8 ( 223) ( .3 22) 9.9 ( 790) 1.6 127) 11.6 922) 1.0 78) 19.0 (1510) 13.6 (1077) 7951 635 48.4 (5286) 40.0 (2665) Municipal Regional Provincial A l l Provincial National 25.4 (1018) 28.1 ( 318) 29.5 ( 584) 27.0 (1920) 27.1 ( 473) 20.4 ( 215) 9-3 ( 371) 6.4 ( 73) 5.7 ( 113) 7.8 ( 557) 5.8 ( 102) 3.7 ( 39) 3.6 ( 145) 3.1 ( 35) 3.3 ( 65) 3.4 ( 245) 4.5 ( 78) 2.9 ( 30). .6 ( 24) .5 ( 6) .3 ( 5) .5 ( 35) .5 ( 8) 1.0 ( 10) 6.8 ( 273) 7.0 ( 79) 8.2 ( 163) 7.2 ( 515) 7.6 ( 132) 8.9 ( 94) 2.8 ( H I ) 1.0 •( 11) 2.1 ( 41) •2.3 ( 163) 1.4 ( 25) 1.0 ( 10) 11.5 ( 459) 11.7 ( 132) 13.0 ( 258) 11.9 ( 849) 12.5 ( 218) 18.0 ( 190) 1.5 ( 58) 1.0 ( 11) 1.0 ( 20) 1.3 ( 89) 1.4 ( 24) 2.1 ( 22) 20.0 ( 802) 24.0 (272) 20.0 ( 394) 20.6 (1468) 20.6 ( 360) 19.2 ( 202) 18.5 ( 741) 17.3 ( 196) 17.0 ( 337) 17.9 (1274) 18.8 ( 328) 23.0 ( 242) 4002 1133 1980 7115 1748 1054 394 102 227 723 220 107 21.5 (2401) 5.8 ( 654) 10.8 (1221) 38.1 (4284) 9.1 ( 842) 4.4 ( 420) 24.0 (1601) 7.2 ( 479) 11.3 ( 751) 42.4 (2831) 10.7 ( 712) 7.0 ( 466) *Head-refers to household head 48 and i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants r e v e a l s that the non-movers have a much higher p r o p o r t i o n of those over s i x t y - f i v e and a higher p r o p o r t i o n of dependent students than the v a r i o u s migrant groups. S i n c e the respondents i n these c a t e g o r i e s cannot be c o n s i d e r e d t o have been f o r c e d i n t o these groups by i n - m i g r a t i o n , the major d i f f e r e n c e s i n the number o f dependents and thus the depencency r a t i o i s independent of the e f f e c t s of i n - m i g r a t i o n on the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . 8 Table IV a l s o shows t h a t the low dependency r a t i o of i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants i s due to a low p r o p o r t i o n of people over the age of s i x t y - f i v e and a low per centage of c h i l d r e n under the age of s i x t e e n . In a d d i t i o n , the i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants have a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of independent non-heads. Combining the l a c k o f evidence of m i g r a t i o n induced dependency among the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n with the lower dependency r a t i o of in-migrants l e a d s t o the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t migration b e n e f i t s the p r o v i n c e and i t s p o p u l a t i o n by red u c i n g the per c a p i t a demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s . In a d d i t i o n , the lower p r o p o r t i o n o f those over s i x t y - f i v e i n the in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n i n d i c a t e s the type of s e r v i c e s demanded by in-migrants are not as h e a v i l y weighted toward o l d age pension supplements* c h r o n i c h e a l t h c a r e , and s p e c i a l i z e d housing f r e q u e n t l y demanded by t h i s group 9 as the demands of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . The second i n d i c a t o r of the demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s considered i s the number o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n each ten year age group whose major source of income i s some form of government t r a n s f e r payment. Table V giv e s t h e data f o r t h i s t o p i c . 1 0 The d i s t r i b u t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l s whose major source of income i s government TABLE V: DISTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUALS WHOSE MAJOR SOURCE OF INCOME IS GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PAYMENTS ACCORDING TO AGE AND MIGRATION STATUS MIGRATION CLASS AGE GROUP Non A l l intra- Same Different Different mover provincial municipality municipality district Inter-provincial Inter-national 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71+ 1.4$~ 31.8$f ( 14? 2.7 22.5$ ( 27) 2.6$ 29.6$ ( 26) 4.6$ 41.6$ ( 47) 6.2$ 54.3$ ( 63) 24.2$ 56.7$ (247) 58.4$ 64.1$ (596) 3.2$ 50.0$ ( 22) 9.7$ 55.0$ ( 66) 7.1$ 54.5$ ( 48) 8.6$ 51.3$ ( 58) 6.9$ 40.5$ ( 47) 22.4$ 34.9$ (152) 42.0$ 30.7$ (285) 3.1$ 31.8$ ( 14) 9.0$ 34.2$ ( 41) 7.2$ 37.5$ ( 33) 9.2$ 37.2$ ( 42) 5.9$ 23.3$ ( 27) 21.0$ 22.0$ ( 96) 41.6$ 21.9$ (204) 2.7$ 4.6$ ( 2) 10.9$ 6.7$ ( 8) 2.7$ 2.3$ ( 2) 9.6$ 6.2$ ( 7) 6.9$ 4.3$ ( 5) 26.0$ 4.4$ ( 19) 41.1$ 3.2$ ( 30) 4.1$ 13.6$ ( 6) 11.5$ 14.2$ ( 17) 8.8$ 14.8$ ( 13) 6.1$ 8.0$ ( 9) 10.1$ 12.9$ ( 15) 25.0$ 8.5$ ( 37) 34.5$ 5.5$ ( 57) 6.1$ 15.9$ ( 7) 20.9$ 20.0$ ( 24) 7.8$ 10.2$ ( 9) 4.4$ 4.4$ ( 5) 2.6$ 2.6$ ( 3) 23.5$ 6.2$ ( 27) 34.8$ 4.3$ ( 40) 2.9$ 2.3$ ( 1) 8.8$ 2.5$ ( 3) 14.7$ 5.7$ ( 5) 8.8$ 2.7$ ( 3) 8.8$ 2.6$ ( 3) 29.4$ 2.3$ ( 10) 26.5$ 1.0$ ( 9) TOTAL 100.0$ 55.2$ (1020) 100.0$ 36.7$ (678) 100.0$ 24.7$ (457) 100.0$ 4.0$ ( 73) 100.0$ 8.0$ (148) 100.0$ 6.2$ (115) 100.0$ 1.8$ ( 34) V O •vertical percentage ^horizontal percentage number Sourcei Analysis of Individual File of One in a Hundred Sample (Statistics Canada, 1974) s o t r a n s f e r payments i s c o n s i s t e n t with the f i n d i n g s r e l a t i n g t o the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the v a r i o u s s u b c a t e g o r i e s of dependents o u t l i n e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s s e c t i o n . That i s , the combined 6 1 — 7 0 and 70+ age groups compose the maj o r i t y o f the t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s i n each migrant group. These two groups c o n t a i n over 80% of the non-mover t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s but only 55.9% of the i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrant r e c i p i e n t s . The i n t e r r p r o v i n c i a l and v a r i o u s s u b - c l a s s e s of i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l r e c i p i e n t s f a l l between these extremes. Although the b a s i c o l d age pension i s a t r a n s f e r payment from f e d e r a l sources, the pr o v i n c e p r o v i d e s a pension supplement o f up t o fou r hundred e i g h t y d o l l a r s a n n u a l l y and a r e n t a l a s s i s t a n c e g r ant of up to e i g h t y d o l l a r s to low income pensioners., Thus a per centage o f these i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l r e c e i v e t r a n s f e r payments from p r o v i n c i a l revenues, the r e l a t i v e p r o b a b i l t i y t h a t the v a r i o u s migrant groups a r e r e c e i v i n g the supplement i s estimated l a t e r i n t h i s s e c t i o n . TABLE VI: T r a n s f e r Payment R e c i p i e n t s as a Percentage of the T o t a l C e l l P o p u l a t i o n , Age Groups vs Migrant Groups MIGRANT GROUP AGE Son A l l i n t r a - I n t e r - I n t e r -GROUP Hovers p r o v i n c i a l p r o v i n c i a l n a t i o n a l 11-20 .7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 21-30 4.9% 3.8% 5.0% .8% 31-40 3. 2% 4.2% 3.0% 2. 1% 41-50 3.5% 6.7% 2. 3% 4.4% 51-60 4.9% 6.8% 2.4% 5.9% 61-70 30.4% 36.7% 2 8. 4% 23. 3% 71 + 72.0% 76.4% 6 5. 6% 40. 9% T o t a l 13.4% 10.1% 6.8% 3.7% T able V does not take i n t o account the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of each migrant group among the v a r i o u s age 51 brac k e t s . Thus i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to determine which c e l l s of the age-migrant s t a t u s t a b l e have the highest l e v e l of t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s when compared to the t o t a l number of i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h i n a subgroup. Consequently, T a b l e VI has been computed t o show the t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s as a per centaqe of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of each c e l l o f Table V. The t a b l e shows that f o r the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of each migrant qroup, the per centaqe whose major source of income i s t r a n s f e r payments i s h i g h e s t f o r non-movers, f o l l o w e d i n d e c r e a s i n q order by i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l , i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l , and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l miqrant groups. Once again these f i n d i n g s p a r a l l e l and thus r e i n f o r c e those r e l a t i n g t o the dependency r a t i o . Table VI a l s o c l e a r l y shows t h a t a l l migrant groups have t h e i r g r e a t e s t l e v e l o f demand f o r t r a n s f e r payment w i t h i n the o l d e r age groups. However, the p r o p o r t i o n dependent upon t r a n s f e r payments i n these age groups i s lower f o r i n - m i g r a n t s than f o r the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . In f a c t Table VI i n d i c a t e s almost 35% of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and 60% of i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n -migrants over the age of 70 have a source of income l a r g e r than government pensions and thus are u n l i k e l y t o draw on p r o v i n c i a l supplements (which a r e provided only t o those with low incomes). T h i s i s l i k e l y to be a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of non-claimers than among i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants and non-movers who have ( r e s p e c t i v e l y ) 23% and 28% of t h i s age group with t h e i r major source of income a r i s i n g from sources other than t r a n s f e r payments. Thus, the p r o p o r t i o n of e l d e r l y i n - m i g r a n t s drawing on p r o v i n c i a l programs designed to a s s i s t low income s e n i o r s i s s m a l l e r than the p r o p o r t i o n of comparable in-migrants r e q u i r i n g 52 these p r o v i n c i a l funds. Another i n t e r e s t i n g f e a t u r e of Table VI i s the f a c t t h a t the i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have the highest p r o p o r t i o n of d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s i n each age category over t h i r t y . Although i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to e s t a b l i s h the reasons f o r these high p o r t i o n s , they would appear to a r i s e from two sources. F i r s t , t h i s migrant group has a higher r a t i o of female f a m i l y heads than other groups and thus a h i g e r p r o b a b i l i t y of non-working, welfare dependent mothers. Second, i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have a higher p r o b a b i l i t y o f being unemployed and c o l l e c t i n g w e l f a r e o r UIC because i n t h i s migrant c l a s s both those t h a t move i n search of employment and those t h a t r e t u r n t o t h e i r o r i g i n a f t e r an u n s u c c e s s f u l or u n s a t i s f a c t o r y search are l i k e l y t o be recorded as unemployed. 1 1 Table VI a l s o shows t h a t i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants r e g u i r e the h i g h e s t l e v e l of t r a n s f e r payments i n the younger age groups. U n f o r t u n a t e l y the data i s not s t r u c t u r e d i n a manner t h a t permits the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e source of the t r a n s f e r payments to t h i s group and, as a r e s u l t , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to determine the r e l a t i v e demands f o r p r o v i n c i a l funds. I n a d d i t i o n , the s m a l l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the per centage of the v a r i o u s groups dependent on t r a n s f e r payments and the s m a l l absolute number of r e c i p i e n t s i n these age/migration c a t e g o r i e s i n d i c a t e s t h at the p r o d u c t i v i t y of more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s would be low. O v e r a l l , then, the t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t data c o n f i r m s the c o n c l u s i o n s of the dependency r a t i o . Although i n - m i g r a n t s are shown to c o n c e n t r a t e t h e i r dependence on t r a n s f e r payments i n the o l d e r age groups, the l e v e l ofdependence i s below that of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . 53 3.6 SUMMARY In summary, the examination i n t h i s chapter has shown t h a t the p o p u l a t i o n moving i n t o the p r o v i n c e has a lower r a t i o of dependents to wage earners than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . The d i f f e r e n c e i n the dependency r a t i o s i s l a r g e l y due to the higher p r o p o r t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l s i n the indigenous groups who are e i t h e r over the age of s i x t y - f i v e or students e a r n i n g l e s s than two thousand d o l l a r s a year. These f i n d i n g s are l a r g e l y confirmed by the d i s t r i b u t i o n of d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payment r e c i p i e n t s * As a s i n g l e e n t i t y , i n t e r -n a t i o n a l 1 * and i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrant groups have a lower percentage of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n dependent upon t r a n s f e r payments than e i t h e r the indigenous movers or the non-movers. In a d d i t i o n , the i n - m i g r a n t s over the age of s i x t y have a lower p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n dependent of t r a n s f e r payments than comparable i n d i g e n e s . Among the other age groups, the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have the highest per centage of r e c i p i e n t s i n the two youngest age c l a s s e s while i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have the h i g h e s t percentage o f r e c i p i e n t s i n the three remaining age c l a s s e s . However, data c o n s t r a i n t s prevent f u r t h e r examination of these groups with r e s p e c t to demands on p r o v i n c i a l funds. Thus f o r e i t h e r measure, the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants e x h i b i t a lower r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s than the indigenous non-movers and migrants. At the same time, the p o p u l a t i o n moving i n t o the province tends to have a lower r a t e of demand i n the area of s e r v i c e s provided to people over the age of s i x t y - f i v e . As a r e s u l t , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o conclude that m i g r a t i o n has a tendency to b e n e f i t the p r o v i n c e and i t s c i t i z e n s s i n c e i t acts to lower the r a t i o of dependents per income earner i n the p o p u l a t i o n . FOGTJOTJS The e x c e p t i o n i s age/sex which has the form: annual c o s t age The h e a l t h c o s t s f o r broad age groups are <19: $103/annum; 19-65: $268/annum; >65: $685/annum {includes h o s p i t a l and p h y s i c i a n c a r e c o s t s only i n 1973 H.E.W., 1975). Per student education c o s t s f o r 1971 were $610/student/year f o r p u b l i c s c h o o l s and $2129/student/year at u n i v e r s i t i e s and vocatuonal s c h o o l s ( o p e r a t i n g c o s t s paid by the p r o v i n c e — Department of E d u c a t i o n , 1972). The province c u r r e n t l y funds s e v e r a l programs whose co s t c o u l d not be c a l c u l a t e d . These i n c l u d e pharmacare, gauranteed income supplement, r e n t e r s grants and v a r i o u s h e a l t h r e l a t e d programs (a d u l t c a r e programs, r e s t homes and boarding houses f o r the e l d e r l y ) which are funded through the M i n i s t r y of Human Resources. Two thousand d o l l a r s a year i s used as a t h r e s h o l d i n d e f i n i n g dependent students because beyond t h i s income l e v e l the students would, i n 1971, pay some income tax. Students e a r n i n g l e s s than $2,000 year would e i t h e r be c l a s s e d as dependents on t h e i r parents t a x r e t u r n s or be l i k e l y to r e q u i r e p r o v i n c i a l bursuary a i d (thus i n c r e a s i n g the p r o v i n c i a l share o f u n i v e r s i t y education c o s t s beyond the alre a d y high $2,219+/student/year) . Those e a r n i n q over $2,000/year would be l e s s l i k e l y t o r e q u i r e b u r s u a r i e s and, throuqh income and s a l e s t axes, would c o n t r i b u t e t o p r o v i n c i a l revenues. Serow's dependency r a t i o was simply the i n d i v i d u a l s aqed 0-14 and 65+ d i v i d e d by those 15-65. Harbison and Bowen, 1965; Hayghe, 1974; and O s t r y , 1968. Greenwood (1975:406) i n d i c a t e s t h a t s t u d i e s show l e s s than f o r t y per cent of a l l migrants are movinq to a s p e c i f i c job. Serow's measure was simply the f i g u r e o b tained by d i v i d i n g the t o t a l number of people between the ages of 15 and 65 i n t o the remainder of the p o p u l a t i o n . The formula f o r c a l c u l a t i n g the dependency r a t i o used i n t h i s t h e s i s i s : (( YOUNG • OLD • HO • HT +S • NT * NN ) / ( HS + NW )) •••female — male where: IOUNG - i n d i v i d u a l s aged 0-15; OLD - i n d i v i d u a l s age 65*; HO - unemployed household heads; HT household heads whose major source of income i s t r a n s f e r payments; S - students with an income of l e s s than $2000/year; NT - non-household heads whose major source of income i s t r a n s f e r payments; NN-non-household heads who have no income from any source; HW household heads whose major source of income i s not t r a n s f e r payments; NW - non-household head whose major source of income i s not t r a n s f e r payments. Unless otherwise s t a t e d a l l t a b l e s are d e r i v e d from a n a l y s i s of the I n d i v i d u a l F i l e o f the One i n a Hundred Sample of the 1971 Cencus of Canada User Tapes (see S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1976 f o r d e t a i l s ) . Note that these r e s u l t s change s l i g h t l y when the head-unemployed, head t r a n s f e r and non-head c a t e g o r i e s are c a l c u l a t e d as a percentage of the p o t e n t i a l labour f o r c e . The r e l a t i v e p o r t i o n s of non-mover/inter-p r o v i n c i a l migrants i n t h e v a r i o u s c a t e g o r i e s a r e : -Unemployed Head-4.7/6.6; Head Transfer-0.5/0.7; Student-16.6/11.3; Non-head Transfer-2.7/2.1; N e u t r a l -19.4/18.6; Independent <$3000-1.6/2.0; Independent >3000~31.8/30.7; Independent Non-Head-22.7/28.0. Although i n t h i s s u b - p o p u l a t i o n the p o r t i o n o f non-head t r a n s f e r r e c i p i e n t s and n e u t r a l s are s l i g h t l y higher than i n the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l group, the d i f f e r e n c e s do not appear to be s u b s t a n t i a l nor e q u i v a l e n t t o the d i f f e r e n t p r o p o r t i o n s o f inependent Non-heads. The dependency r a t i o s of the p o p u l a t i o n s when the 65+, <16, and student groups are omitted are: non-mover-— ,49; i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l — . 4 6 ; i n t r a - r e g i o n a l — . 3 8 ; i n t e r -r e g i o n a l — , 4 6 ; i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l — . 4 6 ; and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l — .52. Notice t h a t the lower r a t i o of those over s i x t y - f i v e does not r u l e out the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t a l l these migrants move t o Vancouver or V i c t o r i a and thus cause s i g n i f i c a n t l o c a l impacts i n these c e n t r e s . I n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants unemployed a f t e r r e t u r n i n g from an u n s u c c e s s f u l s e a r c h w i l l not show up i n the B.C. t r a n s f e r payment f i g u r e s . 57 CHAPTER IV-THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME BENEFITS Chapter one e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t the r e l a t i v e performance o f migrants and non-migrants i n an expanding r e g i o n i s an important but r e l a t i v e l y untouched area of r e s e a r c h . Chapter two o u t l i n e d the l i m i t a t i o n s of the data source used i n t h i s study and e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t B.C. had an expanding economy at t h e time the data was c o l l e c t e d . T h i s i s the second of three a n a l y s i s c h a p t e r s each of which addresses a s p e c i f i c a spect of the migrant/non^migrant s i t u a t i o n . Chapter t h r e e examined the r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s as measured by the dependency r a t i o and the p o r t i o n o f each ten-year age group r e c e i v i n g d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payments. T h i s chapter examines the d i s t r i b u t i o n of income among migrants and non-migrants. The chapter i s d i v i d e d i n t o s i x s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t c o n t a i n s a b r i e f i n t r o d u c t i o n while the second i d e n t i f i e s the reasons f o r i n t e r e s t i n the income d i s t r i b u t i o n i s s u e . The t h i r d s e c t i o n o u t l i n e s the i n d i c a t o r used to d e f i n e the r e l a t i v e performance of the migrant groups and s e c t i o n f o u r examines the r e l a v a n t data. The f i n a l s e c t i o n summarizes the f i n d i n g s and c o n c l u s i o n s . 4 . 1 INTRODUCTION The o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s chapter i s to examine the d i s t r i b u t i o n of wage income between migrants and non-migrants. I t extends previous s t u d i e s by h o l d i n g f a c t o r s r e l a t e d to human c a p i t a l such as education, s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g courses, and on the job t r a i n i n g c onstant when comparing the incomes of i n d i g e n e s and i n -migrants. 4.2 THE ISSUE 58 The s t u d i e s of migrants and non-migrants i n d i s t r e s s e d areas reviewed i n chapter one g e n e r a l l y found i n - m i g r a n t s occupied b e t t e r paying p o s i t i o n s than i n d i g e n e s . A study of a sample of the OIC i n s u r e d p o p u l a t i o n of B.C. i n d i c a t e d t h a t younger i n -migrants had higher average incomes than indigenes of comparable age {Courchene, 1974). The i s s u e i s whether t h i s c o n d i t i o n holds when a more e x t e n s i v e data source i s used and whether the c o n d i t i o n a r i s e s from the d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the migrant and non-migrants p o p u l a t i o n or whether i t a r i s e s from r e s i d u a l f a c t o r s t hat e x i s t s w i t h i n age/education s p e c i f i c s u b c a t e g o r i e s of the p o p u l a t i o n s . 4.3 THE MEASURE Income (gross) from wages and s a l a r i e s i s compared f o r migrant and non-migrant groups. The One i n a Hundred Sample measured t h i s v a r i a b l e to the nearest ten d o l l a r increment up to a maximum of $45,00<H-higher incomes were r e p o r t e d as t h i s maximum f i g u r e ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1976). Unless they had no p r e v i o u s employment experience (and thus no p r e v i o u s income), i n d i v i d u a l s who were unemployed on the date of the census are i n c l u d e d i n the c a l c u l a t i o n of mean income f o r t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p o p u l a t i o n subgroup., The i n c l u s i o n of unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l not s y s t e m a t i c a l l y b i a s t h e mean incomes of p o p u l a t i o n subgroups because the census r e p o r t s income f o r the year ending on December 31 whereas employment s t a t u s r e f e r s t o the week p r i o r t o the census d a y — t h e f i v e month i n t e r v a l between r e p o r t i n g dates r e s u l t s i n tenuous connections between these v a r i a b l e s . 1 Courchene (1974) compared the mean incomes of migrants and non-migrants without i n d i c a t i n g the standard d e v i a t i o n or number 59 of respondents i n each f i f t e e n year age group s t u d i e d . The a n a l y s i s i n t h i s chapter a l s o compares mean incomes but p r o v i d e s the standard d e v i a t i o n and number of respondents as an i n d i c a t o r o f the shape of the d i s t r i b u t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , s i n c e income d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r a p o p u l a t i o n commonly have more low income than high income earners (Lebergott, 1968) the median incomes and histograms were compared i n order to determine i f the means were r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t o r s f o r the p o p u l a t i o n s under study. , The freguency d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r c a t e g o r i e s of the sample which have l a r g e numbers of respondents are of the g e n e r a l form of a b e l l curve with t h e i r l e f t t a i l t r u n c a t e d by the lowest income b a r r i e r (see F i g u r e 3 f o r examples). As the number of respondents i n p o p u l a t i o n s u b c a t e g o r i e s decreases the d i s t r i b u t i o n s r e t a i n an e s s e n t i a l l y normal p r o f i l e although some minor d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s are evident (see F i g u r e 4 f o r examples ), 4.4 THE EXPECTATION Income has been found t o i n c r e a s e with e d u c a t i o n ; the d i v i s i o n of a p o p u l a t i o n i n t o e d u c a t i o n subgroups r e v e a l i n g " . . . c l e a r and s t r o n g differentials™ i n mean incomes as the education l e v e l i n c r e a s e s ( M i n c e r , 1974:1). Income i s a l s o a f f e c t e d by the number o f years of work experience (Mincer, 1974). Since e d u c a t i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s can l e a d to a d i f f e r e n c e of up t o ten years i n t h e l e n g t h of an i n d i v i d u a l s work experience (Bozenwig and Morgan, 1976) and s i n c e the mean l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n a l achievement i s higher f o r younger c o h o r t s than o l d e r c o h o r t s i t i s necessary to compare 60 Figure 3 Typical Income Distributions when the Number of Respondents is Large (example: male household heads by migration group) Income (in $1500 increments) 61 Figure 4 Typical Income Distributions when i the Number of Respondents Reduced I (100) but Greater than Ten. ' (example: male household heads with junior secondary or less education and 10-19 years work experience) Income (in $1500 increments) 62 groups t h a t have s i m i l a r experience and education, although age TABLE VII : Mean Income of the Male Labour Force of B.C by Age and Education L e v e l (1971) AGE EDUCATION LEVEL <9 9-10 11 12-13 Some 0., Deqree 15-19 1 683 1276 1188 1586 1481 20-24 4634 4937 4999 4833 3153 3158 25-29 6316 6897 7193 7379 6384 7177 30-34 6989 7726 8177 8580 8288 10892 35-39 7452 8317 8786 9123 9604 14185 40-44 7527 8454 8691 9306 10452 16599 45-49 7161 8310 8793 9400 10038 17041 50-54 7026 7958 8728 9123 10299 16921 55-60 6634 7539 7948 8661 9438 16540 61-64 5830 6747 7645 7991 8266 15018 ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 197 5a: Table 10) can serve as a proxy f o r work experience w i t h i n a given education g r o u p ( a c t i n g t o make mean income d i f f e r e n t i a l s between age s p e c i f i c e ducation groups more pronounced than d i f f e r e n t i a l s between non-age s p e c i f i c education groups), the income d i f f e r e n t i a l s between education groups are f u r t h e r emphasized when experience r a t h e r than age i s h e l d constant (Mincer, 1974). To demonstrate the e x i s t e n c e o f age/education income d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n B.C., Table VII shows the mean incomes f o r v a r i o u s age/education subgroups of the 1971 p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n . The t a b l e r e v e a l s two f a c t o r s o f i n t e r e s t . f i r s t , the i n c r e a s e i n mean incomes with age begins t o f a l l o f f around age 45. T h i s i s e x p l a i n e d by an i n c r e a s i n g freguency of i l l n e s s and d i s a b i l i t y among, and v o l u n t a r y e a r l y withdrawl from f u l l time labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n by, the aging p o p u l a t i o n (Taubman, 1975). Second, f o r the younger age groups the completion of 'some u n i v e r s i t y * does not r a i s e the income above 63 t h a t o f i n d i v i d u a l s who attended s e n i o r secondary s c h o o l . T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t with previous s t u d i e s (Taubman, 1974). The f a i l u r e of past s t u d i e s to c o n t r o l f o r ed u c a t i o n and age i s a major short-coming because the l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n a l achievement i s d i f f e r e n t i a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d among the migrant and non-migrant populations; (Anderson, 1966; Shaw,1975; George, 1970; e t c . ) . The a n a l y s i s o f the One i n a Hundred Sample data i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n provides i n f o r m a t i o n on r e l a t i v e wage incomes when experience and educa t i o n are si m u l t a n e o u s l y h e l d constant. Despite the advance over p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s , there a r e s t i l l s e v e r a l f a c t o r s w i t h i n experience/education subgroups t h a t may i n f l u e n c e the r e l a t i v e incomes o f indigenes and in - m i g r a n t s . M o t i v a t i o n , Migrants move to search f o r o r f i l l a job. At the same time, they have a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i n age and l i f e - c y c l e c a t e g o r i e s t h a t have high labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s (young, married females; s i n g l e males; etc.) (Lansing and Mueller, 1966). These two f a c t o r s i n d i c a t e migrants as a whole have a higher l e v e l of motiv a t i o n than indigenes. T h i s may be r e f l e c t e d i n higher mean incomes among in-migrant subgroups than among otherwise comparable in - m i g r a n t s . M o b i l i t y , A second f a c t o r t h a t has the p o t e n t i a l to r a i s e the income of in-migrants above t h a t of comparable i n d i g e n e s i s the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t they w i l l be more mobile w i t h i n the pro v i n c e than i n d i g e n e s . Since a l l in-migrants entered the province d u r i n g the f i v e year p e r i o d they are more l i k e l y , o v e r a l l , than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n t o have t h e i r p o s s e s s i o n s i n a form which i s e a s i l y moved and t o have fewer 'psychic t i e s ' to break 64 before moving again (Anderson, 1966). As a r e s u l t , migrants may be expected to respond more r e a d i l y t o h i g h e r paying but s p a t i a l l y d i s p e r s e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s . There are however two f a c t o r which may a c t t o d e p r e c i a t e any m o b i l i t y advantage. F i r s t , a r e l u c t a n c e among employers to h i r e newly a r r i v i n g migrants because t h e i r r e s p onsiveness t o other o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n c r e a s e s the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the employer w i l l l o s e h i s t r a i n i n g investment should a b e t t e r paying p o s i t i o n come vacant.? Second, the c o s t of moving to the p r o v i n c e may reduce the a b i l i t y of r e c e n t i n -migrants t o f i n a n c e any f u r t h e r moves necessary to take advantage of s p a t i a l l y d i s p e r s e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h a t a r i s e once he has e s t a b l i s h e d h i s f i r s t r e s i d e n c e . Information i 8 -, Information on both the r e l a t i v e wages paid i n v a r i o u s occupations and the e x i s t e n c e of vacancies i s t r a n s m i t t e d through formal and i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n channels. The use of job search techniques v a r i e s with o c c u p a t i o n ( e d u c a t i o n ) — w h i t e c o l l a r ( b e t t e r educated) workers using formal methods such as l e t t e r s of a p p l i c a t i o n , p r i v a t e employment agencies, e t c . more o f t e n than blue c o l l a r ( l e s s educated) workers who r e l y h e a v i l y on i n f o r m a t i o n from f r i e n d s and r e l a t i v e s and d i r e c t ( o n - s i t e ) a p p l i c a t i o n t o the employer (Lansing and M u e l l e r , 1969; Maki, 1971; Y a v i t z e t a l , 1973). Part of t h i s d i f f e r e n c e has been a t t r i b u t e d t o ' f u n c t i o n a l i l l i t e r a c y 1 , the i n a b i l i t y t o f i l l out b a s i c a p p l i c a t i o n forms e t c . (VBB, 1976) or to the more a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n on working c o n d i t i o n s conveyed through i n f o r m a l channels (Parnes, 1956). The indigenous p o p u l a t i o n should have s u p e r i o r i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n sources while the f o r m a l flows would be e q u a l l y a v a i l a b l e to both p o p u l a t i o n s . T h e i r poorer i n f o r m a l flows may l e a d t o i n - m i g r a n t s e n t e r i n g occupations t h a t 65 pay poorly r e l a t i v e to the remainder o f the o c c u p a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e a v a i l a b l e t o i n d i v i d u a l s with a p a r t i c u l a r s e t of c r e d e n t i a l s . 3 On the J o b _ T r a i n i n g . The l e v e l of on-the-job t r a i n i n g an i n d i v i d u a l posses a f t e r a given p e r i o d of i n the labour f o r c e i s i n f l u e n c e d by the s t a t u s of the labour market. For example, • c r e d e n t i a l enhancement* may a r i s e i n areas i n which expansion c r e a t e s a demand f o r workers i n a v a r i e t y of i n d u s t r i e s . I f workers with a r e g u i r e d type of formal c r e d e n t i a l (say completion of grade 12) are i n s h o r t supply f i r m s may be f o r c e d to lower t h e i r minimum education or experience requirements. I n d i v i d u a l s with low i n i t i a l s k i l l s may thus gain e n t r y to p o s i t i o n s t h a t , i n labour markets with a lower l e v e l of demand f o r labour or a l a r g e r supply of q u a l i f i e d workers, would have hig h e r entrance requirements. 5s a r e s u l t of on-the-job t r a i n i n g under these c o n d i t i o n s the i n d i v i d u a l becomes q u a l i f i e d (and paid) beyond the l e v e l t h a t would be p r e v a l e n t f o r h i s f o r m a l t r a i n i n g i n l e s s expansionary s e t t i n g s . * Summer exployment may produce e q u i v a l e n t r e s u l t s f o r i n d i v i d u a l s f i r s t e n t e r i n g the labour market on a f u l l time b a s i s . T h i s c r e d e n t i a l enhancement i s l i k e l y to be more p r e v a l e n t i n the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n s i n c e the obverse to c r e d e n t i a l enhancement i s underemployment i n terms of the under u t i l i z a t i o n o f s k i l l s , a s i t u a t i o n which a r i s e s when workers with a v a r i e t y of s k i l l s compete f o r s c a r c e , low s k i l l employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s and which w i l l r e s u l t i n a low l e v e l of i n f o r m a l l y a c q u i r e d s k i l l s a f t e r a given p e r i o d i n the labour market (Jones, 1 9 7 1 ) — t h i s labour surplus/underemployment s i t u a t i o n i s a l s o one of the causes of o u t - m i g r a t i o n (Shaw, 1975). Thus we would expect any d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the l e v e l of on t h e job t r a i n i n g t o 66 favour the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . a p a r a l l e l and l a r g e l y i n d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e f a c t o r a c t i n g to give more experienced i n d i g e n e s higher wages than comparable in-m i g r a n t s i s l e n g t h of s e r v i c e b e n e f i t s . Since previous s t u d i e s have e i t h e r not used an e x t e n s i v e sample or held e d u c a t i o n c o n s t a n t , i t i s uncl e a r how m o t i v a t i o n , m o b i l i t y , i n f o r m a t i o n , and * c r e d e n t i a l enhancement 1 i n t e r a c t to give migrants or non-migrants a higher income. Since none of these v a r i a b l e s are a v a i l a b l e i n the census d a t a , i t w i l l be im p o s s i b l e r e s o l v e t h e i r r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e i r e x i s t e n c e needs t o be acknowledged i n order t o show t h a t the p r e d i c t i o n of the r e l a t i v e migrant/non-migrant incomes i s not s t r a i g h t forward even when educa t i o n and age are s i m u l a t e n o u s l y h e l d constant, 4.5 THE FINDINGS T h i s s e c t i o n examines the data r e l a t i n g t o the income of migrant and non-migrant r e s i d e n t s of B.C. i n 1971. i t begins by comparing the mean incomes of the v a r i o u s c l a s s e s of migrants. Once the performance of the o v e r a l l p o p u l a t i o n has been e s t a b l i s h e d , the s i z e of the p o p u l a t i o n under s c r u t i n y i s reduced and a more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f the incomes of the reduced group undertaken. Table VIII c o n t a i n s i n f o r m a t i o n r e l a t i n g to the economic performance of the d i f f e r e n t migrant groups. The e x p e c t a t i o n generated by the l i t e r a t u r e review i n chapter one t h a t the p o p u l a t i o n moving i n t o the province w i l l have h i g h e r incomes than the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i s not c o n c l u s i v e l y borne out by the 67 s a i p l e data. Although non-movers and a l l types of i n t e r n a l migrants have higher mean incomes than i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants, both non-movers and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l movers have lower mean incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants. However> from the range of labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i t i s c l e a r t h a t the mean incomes i n T a b l e V I I I are a poor i n d i c a t o r of incomes of the p o r t i o n o f each migrant c l a s s t h a t i s e i t h e r employed or seeking employment. S i n c e the examination of the dependency r a t i o i n TABLE V I I I : Income and Labour f o r c e Status of Migrant Groups (aged s i x t e e n t o s i x t y - f i v e ) , INCOME LABOUR FORCE STATUS MIGRANT Mean Standard Looked Not i n Worked CLASS Income D e v i a t i o n For Work Labour Force For Pav Non- $3297.11 $5378.68 4. 1% 45. 9% 46.1% Movers I n t r a - $3395.67 $4888.34 5.0% 38.7% 53. 2% M u n i c i p a l I n t r a - $3656.28 $4980.83 4.7% 34. 2% 56.9% Regional I n t e r - $3146.91 $4575.83 5. 1% 37.9% 53.7% Regional I n t e r - $3320.36 $4648.05 6.6% 36.6% 52.7% P r o v i n c i a l I n t e r - $3098.04 $4503.89 5. 3% 33. 1% 57.3% N a t i o n a l s e c t i o n 3. 5 c l e a r l y r e v e a l e d that each migrant c l a s s had d i f f e r e n t per centages of s t u d e n t s . working non-heads, i n d i v i d u a l s not working nor r e c e i v i n g t r a n s f e r payments, e t c . i t i s necessary t o s e l e c t a subpopulation i n each migrant group t h a t i s able and w i l l i n g t o work. Comparing the mean incomes of these migrant group sub-populations w i l l g i v e a more a c c u r a t e measure of the income performance of the migrant groups than a comparison of the incomes of the t o t a l working age p o p u l a t i o n of each migrant c l a s s . 68 l u the process of d e f i n i n g a sub-population with a more or l e s s uniform commitment to the workforce i t i s f a i r l y easy to e l i m i n a t e segments of the p o p u l a t i o n which have a l i m i t e d i n t e r e s t i n or a b i l i t y to work. For example, f u l l or p a r t - t i m e students should be dropped from the a n a l y s i s of r e l a t i v e economic performance. In a d d i t i o n females have t r a d i t i o n a l l y been viewed as having a weak attachment t o the labour f o r c e , t e n d ing t o v o l u n t a r i l y 'drop-out* dur i n g c e r t a i n stages of t h e i r l i f e c y c l e (Bowen and Harbison, 1965; O s t r y , 1968; Renaud and Phara, 1975). With the one i n a Hundred Sample i t i s i m p o s s i b l e to e s t a b l i s h a female respondent's degree of commitment to f u l l time p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the l a b o u r f o r c e . f T h i s , combined with the e x i s t e n c e of sex d i s c r i m i n a t i o n i n both o c c u p a t i o n a l s e l e c t i o n and wages paid d u r i n g the 1966-1971 pe r i o d (Goldfarb and Hosck, 1976; Holmes, 1976), l e a d to the d e c i s i o n t o drop a l l females from the r e s t r i c t e d s u b -population i n order to remove d i s t o r t i o n s i n the mean wage of the migrant groups *-<> caused by d i f f e r e n t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s of t h e i r females among l i f e c y c l e stages. Op to t h i s p o i n t , e x c l u s i o n of people who tend to have tenuous attachments to the l a b o u r f o r c e produces a sub-population which i s composed of non-student males between the ages of s i x t e e n and s i x t y - f i v e . , The sub-population was f u r t h e r reduced by e x c l u d i n g i n d i v i d u a l s who were not heads (economic or family) of households and who d i d not responded e i t h e r 'employed' or 'unemployed, seeking employment* to the Census labo u r f o r c e s t a t u s q u e s t i o n . T h i s a c t i o n was taken to remove any males who, due to e i t h e r c h o i c e , p h y s i c a l or mental d i s a b i l i t i e s , or preference f o r p e r i o d i c employment have a l i m i t e d involvement i n the labour f o r c e . Hale f a m i l y and economic household heads are 69 s t i l l t y p i c a l l y burdened with the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of p r o v i d i n g at l e a s t a part of t h e i r own or t h e i r f a m i l y ' s s u s t e n a n c e — t h e y would have a more or l e s s uniform need t o work ( S t e i n and Byscavage, 1974; S h i s k i n , 1976} and would, t h e r e f o r e , appear to be the best i n d i c a t o r s of r e l a t i v e economic performance of migrants and non-migrants. When examining t h i s r e s t r i c t e d but h i g h l y motivated segment of the p o p u l a t i o n i t i s p o s s i b l e t o r e a l i s t i c a l l y assume t h a t they would a l l work i f a reasonable o p p o r t u n i t y e x i s t e d (see Benaud and Pham, 1975 on t h i s p o i n t ) . At the same time the income of the household head i s t y p i c a l l y the prime determinant of the economic s t a t u s of the household u n i t ( S t e i n and Byscavage, 1974) . Although the use of a sub-sample that has more uniform m o t i v a t i o n d i s g u i s e s some of the complexity of the migrant/non-migrant s i t u a t i o n , i t i s the p r e f e r r e d o p t i o n i n a c h o i c e between more r e a l i s t i c assumptions about a key segment o f the p o p u l a t i o n and a s e t of l e s s reasonable assumptions about a more d i v e r s e sample. The v a r i o u s migrant groups w i t h i n t h i s s ub-population are compared i n terms of t h e i r performance as gauged by t h e i r income from wages and s a l a r i e s . , The measure of income p a i d as a d i r e c t reward f o r employment r a t h e r than t o t a l income from a l l sources e l i m i n a t e s d i s c r e p a n c i e s t h a t would a r i s e from investment income t h a t , i n the case o f migrants, would not be dependent on t h e i r move to B.C. Before c o n t i n u i n g i t may be u s e f u l t o r e - s t a t e that income i s a continuous v a r i a b l e measured t o the nearest ten d o l l a r s and reported f o r the calendar year p r i o r t o the Census. The p o p u l a t i o n examined has been l i m i t e d t o a sample with more or l e s s equal m o t i v a t i o n ; males between the ages of s i x t e e n and 70 s i x t y - f i v e who are the economic or f a m i l y heads of households, non-students, and members o f the labour f o r c e . T h i s p o p u l a t i o n i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o s i x migration c a t e g o r i e s f o r the purpose o f comparison. The mean income of the va r i o u s migrant groups of the subpopulation i s shown i n T a b l e IX. Examination of the t a b l e I2Li' Mean Wage Incomes (1971) o f Male Household Heads by M i g r a t i o n C l a s s . MIGRATION CLASS Non- I n t r a - I n t e r - I n t e r - I n t e r - I n t e r -Mover Munic. Munic. Regional Pro v. Nation. MEAN 9052.33 7932.12 8458.96 8404.83 7965.05 7284.16 INCOME std.dev (5036.05) (4 310.66) (3831.89) (3948.28) (4280.29) (6417.53 NUMBER (1235) (728) (244) (344) (323) (197) shows t h a t a l l groups r e s i d e n t i n Canada i n 1966 have higher mean incomes than those of i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants. In a d d i t i o n , the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n o f the pr o v i n c e , with the e x c e p t i o n of those moving w i t h i n a m u n i c i p a l i t y , had a higher income than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants. The s i z e o f the standard d e v i a t i o n s and the s m a l l d i f f e r e n c e between the mean incomes of i n t r a -m u nicipal and i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants ($35) suggest the d i f f e r e n c e s c o u l d a r i s e from sampling r e l a t e d s o u r ces r a t h e r than from an a c t u a l d i f f e r e n c e i n the mean incomes of the two groups. Thus, when education and labour f o r c e experience ( v a r i a b l e s t h a t have been found t o be s t r o n g l y c o r r e l a t e d with income) are not c o n t r o l l e d , the indigenous and i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrant groups both perform b e t t e r than i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants while the indigenous population f a r e s as w e l l or b e t t e r than the i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants. 71 The d i f f e r e n c e i n mean incomes between T a b l e VTII and Table IX i s the r e s u l t o f using simultaneous c o n t r o l s f o r sex, labour f o r c e membership, and household r o l e as a proxy f o r high mo t i v a t i o n . Within migrant groups the mean incomes of the subpopulations are approximately three times as l a r g e as the incomes of the c o r r e s p o n d i n g adult p o p u l a t i o n as a whole. In a d d i t i o n , the d i f f e r e n c e s between migrant groups i s more pronounced. In order t o compare the broader based One i n a Hundred Sample data and Courchene's (1974) study of OIC r e g i s t r a n t s , the sub-population i s f i r s t d i v i d e d i n t o age groups i n Table X. Courchene compared the income of male migrants and non-migrants i n each of t h r e e f i f t e e n year age c a t e g o r i e s and found t h a t o n l y in-migrants aged 15-30 had h i g h e r mean incomes than s i m i l i a r aged i n d i g e n e s . For the a n a l y s i s o f the One i n a Hundred Sample Data ten year age groups are used from age s i x t e e n t o f o r t y - f i v e to provide more d e t a i l e d comparisons i n the ages with the h e a v i e s t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants and a s i n g l e 46-65 age group i s used to both compensate f o r the s m a l i number of i n -migrants and s i g n a l the i n c r e a s i n g but p o t e n t i a l l y unegual p r o b a b i l i t y of poor h e a l t h and e a r l y withdrawl from the f u l l time labou r f o r c e among t h i s age group. The mean incomes of sample respondents shown i n Table X are compatible with Courchene's f i n d i n g s . In the 16-25 age group, the bulk of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i s i n the i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l mover c a t e g o r i e s and have mean incomes t h a t are equal t o the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants while i n the 26-35 age group a l l indigenous movers have lower incomes than i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants. In the 36-45 and 46-65 age groups a l l 72 TABLE X : Mean Wage Income o f Male Heads of Households by M i g r a t i o n Status and L e v e l o f Ed u c a t i o n MIGRATION STATUS Non- I n t r a - I n t r a - I n t e r - I n t e r - I n t e r -AGE Mover Munic., Begion. Region. P r o v i n . N a t i o n a l 16-25 6981.00* 6080.95 7217.78 6169.78 6144.09 4336.19 {4847) 2 (4847) (2272) (3090) (2663) (2967) { 1 0 ) 3 ( 95) i 27) ( 45) ( 44) ( 21) 26-35 8803.65 8079.76 8232. 45 8233.31 8570.57 7143.44 (3523) (3636) (2887) (3083) (3862) (3565) (127) (246) ( 94) (142) (123) \ 93) 36-45 9587.93 8885.77 9115.956 92 85.69 8711.98 7471.15 {5792) (4134) (4989) (3981) (4685) (4840) {349) (182) < 60) < 72) ( 81) ( 52) 46-65 8872.59 7766.15 8703.18 9128.47 7233.60 9389.67 (5188) (4678) (4238) (5063) (4851) (13175) (749) (205) { 63} ( 85) ( 75) ( 3 1 ) *mean income *standard i d e v i a t i o n 3 a c t u a l number c a t e r g o r i e s of i n d i g e n e s have higher mean incomes than i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants. Thus there i s a general congruency with Courchene's f i n d i n g t h a t among i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants t o B.C. only the 15-30 age group had hig h e r mean incomes than i n d i g e n e s . Courchene d i d not however, have i n f o r m a t i o n on the education of h i s respondents. Since education has been found to be a determinant of income (Mincer, 1974) and s i n c e education w i l l i n f l u e n c e the l e n g t h of on the job t r a i n i n g f o r an i n d i v i d u a l of a given age (Rozenwig and Morgan 1976) f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s i s necessary. Table XI c o n t a i n s the mean incomes f o r respondents w i t h i n education/experience groups. Experience i s used s i n c e i t i s a more accurate measure of time i n the labour f o r c e than age. 7 Before examing the data i n Table XI i t i s necessary t o note t h a t when the sub-populations are f u r t h e r s u b d i v i d e d i n t o e ducation/experience groups, t h e number of respondents i n some c e l l s becomes g u i t e small. Due t o the inherent e r r o r i n the census data, when the number o f respondents i s low i t becomes d i f f i c u l t t o say with c e r t a i n t y i f the d i s c r e p a n c i e s between mean 73 incomes a r i s e from a c t u a l group d i f f e r e n c e s or merely sampling b i a s e s . Consequently, mean incomes and standard d e v i a t i o n s are not reported f o r c e l l s i n which there are l e s s than ten respondents. at the same time, d i f f e r e n c e s between c e l l s are not con s i d e r e d t o be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e c f p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e n c e s unless they exceed f i v e hundred d o l l a r s . The d e c i s i o n to exclude a l l c e l l s i n which t h e r e are l e s s than ten respondents was based on the d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s i n the income d i s t r i b u t i o n s of these c e l l s . As a r e s u l t , i t i s im p o s s i b l e t o compare the incomes of migrants and non-migrants who have had some u n i v e r s i t y education., However, t h i s s h o r t coming would seem t o be minor from a p o l i c y m a k e r s viewpoint because the types of governmental a c t i v i t y t h a t would improve the performance of t h i s group i n the labour market i s l i m i t e d . That i s , u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t i o n i s more o f t e n s p e c i f i c t o an occupation or i n d u s t r y than general p u b l i c s c h o o l i n g ; income l e v e l s among the u n i v e r s i t y educated t h e r e f o r e have a higher p r o b a b i l i t y of being based on the type of s p e c i f i c t r a i n i n g o r, w i t h i n e q u a l l y t r a i n e d groups, personal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . In a d d i t i o n , u n i v e r s i t y educated respondents have the a b i l i t y t o u t i l i z e a v a r i e t y of job search t e c h n i q u e s , t h e i r l a b o u r markets o f t e n have a broad geographic base, and they are the most mobile segment of the p o p u l a t i o n . Thus, the high l e v e l of s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and m o b i l i t y among the u n i v e r s i t y educated, combined with the smal l p r o p o r t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n with t h i s l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n , suggests t h a t t h e r e are few c o s t e f f e c t i v e methods a v a i l a b l e t o i n c r e a s e the incomes of t h i s group of i n d i g e n e s s h o r t of r e s t r i c t i n g enrollment i n some f i e l d s of study. Table XI i s approached from three p e r s p e c t i v e s . f i r s t , the 7* TABLE XI: Mean Income of Male Household Heads with Labour Force Experience And Education C o n t r o l l e d . MIGRATION STATUS  Non- Same I n t r a - I n t e r - I n t e r - I n t e r -EDUCATION mover mnnic. r e g i o n , r e g i o n . p r o v i n . n a t i o n a l EXPERIENCE: 0-9 j u n i o r or : — 7456.28* — 7250.00 6330.71 — l e s s ( •—•) (6986)z ( — ) (2519) (2221) ( — ) ( 2) ( 3 5 ) 3 ( 3) ( 13) C 1**) ( 5) s e n i o r & 7217.69 6563.91 6929.69 6407.05 6517.86 6353. 04 grade 13 (2375) (2436) (2314) (2920) (2026) (2464) ( 13) ( 69) ( 32) ( 44) < 28) ( 23) some — 6374.12 — 6750. 00 — 6061.00 u n i v e r s i t y ( — ) (3523) ( — ) (2272) { — ) (2127) ( 2) ( 17) ( 3) { 10) ( 6) { 10) degree • — 9320.00 • — 8015. 46 7 8982. 11 10111. 82 or more ( — ) (4285) ( — ) (2524) (3886) (3095) { 0) ( 13) ( 9) ( 1 1 ) ( 19) ( 11) EXPERIENCE: 10-19 j u n i o r or 8245.59 7594.73 7298.52 8119.76 7904.50 6454.71 l e s s (2669) (2460) 12230) (2846) (4897) 12868) ( 5 8 ) ( 91) ( 27) ( »-D { 40) ( 17) s e n i o r 6 9399.54 8293.04 9981.33 8948. 42 8890.00 7474.05 grade 13 (3923) (2945) (3041) (2814) (2699) (3099) { 65) ( 92) { 45) ( 57) ( 57) ( 37) some 8596.92 11226.00 . - — — • — — u n i v e r s i t y (2671) (6940) ( — ) { — ) ( ~ ) ( — ) ( 13) { 15) ( 6) ( 6) ( 6) ( 2) degree 12012.86 13283.08 — 11918. 18 13220. 00 — or more (3105) (3419) ( — ) (2258) (4970) ( — ) ( 21) ( 13) i 5) ( 11) ( 11) ( 7) EXPERIENCE: 20-29 j u n i o r o r 8354.35 8365.19 7060.30 8391.72 7336w57 5999.29 l e s s (3462) (3806) (3015) (3818) (3486) (2136) (181) (104) ( 23) ( 29) { 35) ( 1«») s e n i o r S 11217.46 9695.51 90 28.18 9947.59 87 28.57 7457.14 grade 13 (5634) (3421) (3161) (374 9) (5435) (3157) (118) ( 49) ( 22) < 29) ( 2 8 ) < 21) some 8706.82 11355.00 — — . — u n i v e r s i t y (4223) (4970) ( — ) ( — ) ( — ) ( — ) ( 22) { 10) ( 2) ( 3) ( 7) ( 3) degree 16387.71 — • .—. — — — or more (8018) ( — ) ( — ) ( — ) ( — ) I ~ ) ( 35) ( 8) ( 3) ( 7) ( 8) ( 8) EXPERIENCE: 30+ j u n i o r or 7769.74 6974.13 7774.60 7201.47 5791.08 6722.73 l e s s (2975) (3009) (3602) (3596) (2601) (2888) (422) (11*) ( 37) ( 34) ( 37) ( 1 1 ) s e n i o r 6 9689.00 8957.16 8208.89 932 5. 00 8588.12 - -grade 13 (5470) (5171) (4804) (4898) (5452) ( — ) (221) ( 67) ( 18) ( 3 4 ) ( 20) ( 9) some 1150 9.52 — — — — • — u n i v e r s i t y (8101) ( — ) ( — ) ( ~ ) ( ) ( ~ ) ( 21) { 4) { 5) ( 5) ( 2) i D degree 16100.00 — - — — — — or more (12454) ( — ) ( — ) ( ~ ) i — ) ( — ) ( 21) ( 2) ( 0) ( 3) ( 3) ( D *mean income 2 s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n 3number of respondents 75 t a b l e wide income d i f f e r e n c e s between migrants and non-migrants are examined. Second, d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n e x p e r i e n c e and educat i o n groups are noted and f i n a l l y the t a b l e i s examined f o r evidence of income advantages gained from m o b i l i t y , i n f o r m a t i o n , and c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, A pairwise comparison of education and ex p e r i e n c e s p e c i f i c mean wage incomes of in-migrants and indigenes shows the i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants have higher mean incomes i n 14.255 (5/35) of the p o s s i b l e p a i r i n g s and equal incomes i n 34.2% (12/35) c f the p a i r i n g s . I n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants have higher mean incomes than indigenes i n only 7 . ( 2 / 2 8 ) and egual incomes i n 17.9% (5/28) of t h e i r p a i r i n g s . In terms of the percentage of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n that are i n p a i r i n g s t h a t have egual or lower incomes than i n - m i g r a n t s , 6.1% (162) have incomes l e s s than, and 17.0% (454) incomes equal t o , those of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . Only .9% (24) of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n have lower incomes than i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants while 10,2% (273) have equal mean incomes. 8 C l e a r l y , o n l y a smal l p o r t i o n of the t o t a l indigenous p o p u l a t i o n have lower mean wage incomes than in-migrants with com parable education and employment experience. However, f o u r o f the f i v e p a i r i n g s i n which i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have higher mean incomes than i n d i g e n e s occur i n the group with 10-19 years experience. In a d d i t i o n , f o u r of the twelve p a i r i n g s i n which i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants and indigenes have equal incomes are i n t h i s group. As a r e s u l t , w i t h i n t h i s experience group o n l y 32.9% (168/511) o f the i n d i g e n e s have high e r mean incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants and a s i m i l a r per centage (29.6%, 151/511) have lower incomes. I f the l e v e l a t which d i f f e r e n c e s i n mean incomes are taken t o i n d i c a t e 76 p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e n c e s i s lowered from $500 to $300, the p r o p o r t i o n o f i n d i g e n e s with mean incomes below those of i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants i n c r e a s e s t o 47.4% (242/511). Thus, i n t h i s experience group i n d i g e n e s perform only m a r g i n a l l y b e t t e r than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . y e t t h i s group has the l a r g e s t component (40%, 108/270) o f the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrant p o p u l a t i o n . The c o n c e n t r a t i o n of the smal l p o r t i o n of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n which has lower mean incomes than i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants i n the experience group which c o n t a i n s the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrant p o p u l a t i o n may, i f s t u d i e d i n i s o l a t i o n or with p a r t i a l data, c r e a t e the f a l s e impression t h a t i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants perform as well or b e t t e r than indigenes. In a l l other experience groups i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l i n-migrants have higher mean incomes than only a very s m a l l p o r t i o n of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . I n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants» mean incomes are w e l l below those of ind i g e n e s except i n the lowest and hi g h e s t experience groups. Only i n the subgroup with u n i v e r s i t y degrees and l e s s than t e n years work experience do the i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n-migrants out-perform comparable indigenes and t h i s e d u c a t i o n subgroup c o n t a i n s a very low p r o p o r t i o n (9.3%, 24/257) of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i n t h i s e x p e r i e n c e subgroup. Thus i n - m i g r a n t s do not tend t o have higher incomes than comparably educated i n d i g e n e s e i t h e r at the p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l or a t the l e v e l of i n d i v i d u a l experience groups. However, t h e r e are s u b s t a n t i a l numbers of ind i g e n e s with lower or equal incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants i n the two lower experience groups. I f the sample i s an a c c u r a t e measure of the p o p u l a t i o n , the lower experience groups c o n t a i n 11,900 i n d i g e n e s i n 77 education/experience/migrant groups with lower incomes than comparable i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants and 38,100 i n groups with equal incomes. When viewed from the p e r s p e c t i v e of education groups, only one c l e a r p a t t e r n emerqes. Three of the f i v e p a i r i n g s i n which i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s had higher mean incomes than comparable i n d i g e n e s are i n the bach e l o r ' s degree or more education category. S i m i l a r l y , both o f the cases i n which i n t e r -n a t i o n a l in-migrants have higher incomes than i n d i g e n e s are i n the u n i v e r s i t y educated category. As mentioned e a r l i e r these income d i f f e r e n c e s can be p l a u s a b l y e x p l a i n e d by e i t h e r a p a r t i c u l a r t y p e / l e v e l of s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g or more d e s i r a b l e p e r s o n a l i t y t r a i t s among in-mi g r a n t s but in - m i g r a n t s with degree l e v e l or higher u n i v e r s i t y education do tend t o have higher incomes than i n d i g e n e s i n the same educa t i o n group. Thus, when l e v e l o f educ a t i o n and labour f o r c e e x p e r i e n c e are held c o n s t a n t , i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants do not g e n e r a l l y have higher wage incomes than indigenous male household heads. S i m i l a r l y , i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants tend t o have lower mean incomes than e i t h e r indigenes or i n t e r ^ p r o v i n c i a l migrants i n comparable e x p e r i e n c e / e d u c a t i o n c a t e g o r i e s . The e x c e p t i o n s t o these general f i n d i n g s are u n i v e r s i t y educated migrants. Although the number of respondents with t h i s l e v e l of educ a t i o n i s s m a l l , the few experience groups i n which comparisons can be made show i n - m i g r a n t s f r e q u e n t l y have higher incomes than i n d i g e n e s . The remainder o f t h i s s e c t i o n examines the data i n Table XI i n order to d i s c o v e r i f c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, i n f o r m a l labour market i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w s , or m o b i l i t y provide an e x p l a n a t i o n f o r 78 d i f f e r e n c e s i n mean incomes between i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l , i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l , and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants. C r e d e n t i a l enhancement should be most e v i d e n t among non-u n i v e r s i t y educated respondents s i n c e p u b l i c s h o o l i n g i s l e s s occupation s p e c i f i c and high s c h o o l graduation more f r e q u e n t l y used as an a r b i t r a r y s c r e e n by employers than u n i v e r s i t y e ducation ( S i e b e r t , 1973). I f summer employment produces an i n i t i a l form of c r e d e n t i a l enhancement among the indigenous sub-p o p u l a t i o n , s e n i o r secondary educated indigenes i n t h e i r f i r s t years of labour f o r c e experience would be expected t o have higher incomes than comparable in-migrants. f T h i s i s not g e n e r a l l y the case, Although the non-mover high s c h o o l educated i n d i v i d u a l s i n the 0-9 year experience group have higher incomes as a n t i c i p a t e d * the i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers {even though they a l s o f u n c t i o n i n a l o c a l l a b o u r market over the census period) do not have higher mean incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . . S i m i l a r l y , the i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l migrants i n t h i s e x p e r i e n c e group would a l s o be expected t o have a t r a i n i n g advantage from summer employment ( i f i t e x i s t e d ) but do not have higher incomes than comparable i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants. Thus, summer employment does not appear t o g i v e indigenous male household heads an on the job t r a i n i n g advantage over in-migrants t h a t i s t r a n s l a t e d i n t o higher mean wage incomes during t h e i r f i r s t years i n the labour f o r c e . I f c r e d e n t i a l enhancement a r i s i n g from a tendency t o f i l l j o b s with a v a i l a b l e manpower were a dominant f e a t u r e o f the B.C. lab o u r market, i n d i g e n e s ( e s p e c i a l l y non- and i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers) would be expected t o have c o n s i s t e n t l y higher mean incomes than i n - m i g r a n t s . Table XI r e v e a l s t h a t , even among 79 those remaining i n the same m u n i c i p a l i t y over the census p e r i o d , i n d i g e n e s do not c o n s i s t e n t l y have higher mean incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . Despite the l a c k o f evidence o f widespread c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, t h e r e i s a suggestion of improved indigenous performance r e l a t i v e t o in - m i g r a n t s when the number of years i n the labour f o r c e exceeds twenty. Of the s i x t e e n p o s s i b l e i n d i g e n e / i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l in-migrant p a i r i n g s i n groups with more than twenty years experience, i n d i g e n e s * have lower incomes i n on l y one p a i r i n g and equal incomes i n only t h r e e o f the remaining p a i r i n g s . However, i n the nineteen p o s s i b l e p a i r i n g s i n groups with l e s s than twenty years experience, indigenes* mean incomes i n f i v e p a i r i n g s are lower than and i n nine p a i r i n g s equal to the incomes of the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s * The l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f i n d i g e n e s with higher mean incomes than comparable in-migrants i n the l o n g term e x p e r i e n c e groups suggest some form of advantage gained from employment w i t h i n the province but i t remains un c l e a r whether the advantage i s due to long term c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, automatic length o f s e r v i c e pay increments, or a d e f f i c i e n c y o f s k i l l s among o l d e r i n - m i g r a n t s as a r e s u l t of e i t h e r long term underemployment or experience i n a c t i v i t i e s t h a t pay p o o r l y i n B.C. Some aspects of Table XI do, however, provide t e n t a t i v e support f o r the underemployment or i n a p p r o p r i a t e experience e x p l a n a t i o n f o r these mean wage d i f f e r e n t i a l s . For example, i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants with j u n i o r or s e n i o r secondary education have m a r g i n a l l y lower mean incomes i n the 20 -29 year experience group than they do i n the 10-19 year experience group. Since on the job t r a i n i n g g e n e r a l l y a c t s to i n c r e a s e mean wages, t h i s weak t r e n d i s a r e v e r s a l of 80 e x p e c t a t i o n s . Six o f t h e e i g h t indigenous mover groups with comparable l e v e l s of education have some i n c r e a s e i n t h e i r mean incomes between these experience groups, .. Furthermore, the mean wage i n c r e a s e f o r indigenes who move i n t e r - r e g i o n a l l y suggest t h a t the i n c r e a s e s are not due t o s e n i o r i t y or l e n g t h of s e r v i c e increments s i n c e these i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have the hig h e s t p r o b a b i l i t y of a l l i n d i g e n e s of having changed f i r m s over the census p e r i o d and are thus the l e a s t l i k e l y t o r e c e i v e b e n e f i t s r e l a t e d t o extended employment with a s i n g l e f i r m , Thus, t h e r e i s a weak suggestion t h a t in-migrants* on the job t r a i n i n g f a i l s t o i n c r e a s e a f t e r 10-19 years experience while i n d i g e n e s * wage r e t u r n f o r i n f o r m a l t r a i n i n g i n c r e a s e s s l i g h t l y d u r i n g the subsequent experience p e r i o d . There i s a l s o l i t t l e unambiguous support f o r wage advantages a r i s i n g from s u p e r i o r sources o f i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n or higher l e v e l s o f pe r s o n a l m o b i l i t y . The case f o r b e t t e r sources o f i n f o r m a t i o n l e a d i n g t o higher wages i s supported by non-mover in d i g e n e s having higher incomes than in- m i g r a n t s i n the education groups which r e l y h e a v i l y on i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n d u r i n g the process of job search ( i . e . , n o n - u n i v e r s i t y educated i n d i v i d u a l s ) . However, indigenous i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers a l s o f u n c t i o n i n a l o c a l labour market and should have i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n l e v e l s s i m i l i a r to those o f non-movers. However, the mean incomes of i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers are g e n e r a l l y more than f i v e hundred d o l l a r s lower than those of non-movers. Furthermore, i f i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n was a dominant determinant of income w i t h i n an age/education group, mean incomes should decrease as the probable d i s t a n c e moved i n c r e a s e s . . Once a g a i n , t h i s i s not the c a s e — i n t e r - r e g i o n a l movers have mean incomes 81 t h a t are higher than or equal to those o f i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers i n a l l n o n - u n i v e r s i t y groups while i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l movers* mean incomes vary i r r e g u l a r l y . M o b i l i t y a l s o f a i l s t o provide a c o n s i s t e n t income advantage s i n c e i n t e r - r e g i o n a l migrants have incomes equal t o o r m a r g i n a l l y lower than those of non-movers while i n t e r - p r o v n c i a l migrants have mean incomes t h a t are equal t o or lower than both i n t e r -r e g i o n a l migrants and non-movers. Thus, examination o f T a b l e XI shows than n e i t h e r c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, s u p e r i o r i n f o r m a l l a b o u r market i n f o r m a t i o n flows, nor m o b i l i t y p rovide a c o n s i s t e n t and dominant income advantage. 4.6 SUMMABY T h i s chapter examines the incomes of indigenous and i n -migrant male household heads r e s i d e n t i n B.C. on June 1, 1971. Un l i k e previous s t u d i e s the One i n a Hundred Sample data permits comparisons between groups of i n d i g e n e s and i n - m i g r a n t s with s i m i l a r labour f o r c e experience and education. O v e r a l l , the maj o r i t y of indigenous education/experience subgroups have mean wage incomes t h a t a re higher than or equal t o the mean incomes of comparable subgroups of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n -migrants. When measured on the b a s i s of the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n , only 6.1% of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n were i n c a t e g o r i e s t h a t had lower mean incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants while An a d d i t i o n a l 17, i % had equal incomes. However, the 10-19 year experience group c o n t a i n s the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n (40%) of the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants but only 32,9% of the 82 i n d i g e n e s i n t h i s group have higher incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . Thus, although the o v e r a l l comparison of i n -migrants and i n d i g e n e s i n d i c a t e s that indigenes have an income advantage i n most education/experience c a t e g o r i e s ; t h e r e are some subgroups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n that do not have higher incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s (most noteably the 0-9 and 10-19 year experience, n o n - u n i v e r s i t y educated c a t e g o r i e s which c o n t a i n 11,900 indigenous male household heads with mean incomes below and 38,700 with mean incomes equal to those o f comparably educated i n - m i g r a n t s ) . The data a l s o permits i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n -migrants. I n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s tend to have lower mean incomes than both i n d i g e n e s and i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . T h e i r lower i n i t i a l l e v e l of labour market i n f o r m a t i o n , the high c o s t of t h e i r i n i t i a l move, and a p o s s i b l e language problem a l l reduce the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s can i n i t i a l l y e n t e r or s u b s e q u e n t i a l l y s u c c e s s f u l l y compete f o r higher income p o s i t i o n s F i n a l l y , w i t h i n experience/education subgroups of the p o p u l a t i o n , no c l e a r income advantage a r i s e s from c r e d e n t i a l enhancement, m o b i l i t y , o r s u p e r i o r i n f o r m a l i n f o r m a t i o n flows. FOOTNOTES I f i t i s a n i t c i p a t e d t h a t , as new a r r i v a l s , i n - m i g r a n t s w i l l have a higher p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n unemployed and thus earning a lower income than comparable non- migrants, i t may appear t h a t i n c l u s i o n o f the unemployed would a r t i f i c i a l l y lower the average income of in-migrants. However, t h e r e are two f a c t o r s which make t h i s apparent b i a s i n s i g n i f i c a n t . F i r s t , income i s measured f o r the year ending December 31 while employment s t a t u s i s measured a t the time of the census. Since the year end and census date are f i v e months apart t h e r e i s u n l i k e l y t o be a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between c u r r e n t employment s t a t u s and p r e v i o u s years income among in-migrants--an extended p e r i o d of unemployment among in-migrants i s l i k e l y to l e a d to t h e i r r e t u r n to t h e i r source province where l i v i n g c o s t s are lower and support from f a m i l y and f r i e n d s i s more r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . The o p t i o n to r e t u r n t o the p r o v i n c e of o r i g i n i n the f a c e of l o n g term unemployment i s not a v a i l a b l e t o the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . , Thus long term unemployment i n the year f o r which income i s r e p o r t e d would tend t o lower the r e p o r t e d mean income of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n more than t h a t o f the in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n . Measurement of income i n the previous year w i l l tend t o r e s u l t i n part or a l l o f the r e c e n t in-migrant»s income having been earned i n another province. T h i s w i l l tend to lower the o v e r a l l average income o f the in-migrant group s i n c e a l l other p r o v i n c e s except O n t a r i o have a lower per c a p i t a income than B.C. However these d i s c r e p a n c i e s are s m a l l f o r the p r o v i n c e s which provide the bulk of B. C.'s in-migrants ( A l b e r t a , Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario) and w i l l be balanced by the tendency f o r in-migrants who have been i n the p r o v i n c e f o r more than one year to be the b e t t e r educated or more s k i l l e d p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l migrant stream and thus more l i k e l y t o be employed than the o v e r a l l stream of migrants. In a d d i t i o n any unemployment on a r r i v a l and any income earned i n o r i g i n p r o v i n c e would only apply to a p o r t i o n of the t o t a l migrant p o p u l a t i o n . , For example, the f u l l i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l discrepancy i n wage r a t e s would on l y i n f l u e n c e the incomes of those i n - m i g r a n t s a r r i v i n g a f t e r January f i r s t and remaining i n the province on June f i r s t 1971—assuming a constant monthly flow of i n - m i g r a n t s — t h i s group would account f o r l e s s than 9% of the f i v e year stream. O v e r a l l , t h e r e may be a downward b i a s i n the measure of the i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrant's mean income from a l l sources, but the extent of the b i a s i s expected to be i n s i g n i f i c a t . S ince i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants are l i k e l y to have a lower per c a p i t a income i n t h e i r country of o r i g i n and a s m a l l e r p r o p e n s i t y to r e t u r n home i n the face of unemployment, the downward b i a s i n t h e i r mean incomes would tend t o be g r e a t e r than t h a t of i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , the magnitude of t h i s downward b i a s f o r the in-migrant groups cannot be determined or estimated with enough accuracy t o a d j u s t the mean incomes a c c o r d i n g l y . As a r e s u l t , the mean incomes are examined as i f they were p e r f e c t l y a c c u r a t e . C o n v e r s a t i o n s with s e v e r a l h i g h l e v e l men i n mining c o r p o r a t i o n s r e v e a l e d t h a t t h i s a t t i t u d e i s p r e v a l e n t (Mr. F a i r f i e l d , P l a c e r Developments; A r t Alexander, Granby Mines; Mr. Surge, Lornex). T h i s i s an e x t r a p o l a t i o n from Cox's (1971) f i n d i n g t h a t migrants tend to s w i t c h occupations more f r e g u e n t l y than non-migrants at the o r i g i n . Since p a r t o f t h i s s w i t c h i n g may be due to e n t e r i n g a d i f f e r e n t type of labour market at the d e s t i n a t i o n , i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t the i n i t i a l p o s i t i o n e n t e r e d , due t o u n f a m i l i a r i t y with the new labour market, i s i n an occupation t h a t pays b e t t e r than the migrant*s occupation a t the o r i g i n but which has r e l a t i v e l y low wages at i nthe. d e s t i n a t i o n . Indigenes would, of course, tend to have more knowledge of the r e l a t i v e wage r a t e s i n the v a r i o u s s e c t o r s of the p r o v i n c i a l economy and thus be more l i k e l y t o move i n t o the high paying occupations where ever p o s s i b l e . T h i s type of s i t u a t i o n may a l s o be a l o g i c a l outcome of the o c c u p a t i o n a l experimentation Brewis (1974) c i t e s as a reason f o r the predominance of m i g r a t i o n i n the younger age groups. Webster (1977) has mentioned t h i s phenomena and i t i s suggested i n Bender, Green, and Campbell (1971), Cordey-Hayes (1975), and Mathur (1970). The high p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e o f the non-heads i n the i n t e r - n a t i o n a l immigrant category i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h i s group of women are not p a r t i c u l a r l y t r a d i t i o n a l i n terms of t h e i r tendency t o work i n the home. Female heads of s i n g l e parent households were i n t i a l l y c o nsidered as a t o p i c f o r separate a n a l y s i s but the s m a l l number o f i n d i v i d u a l s f a l l i n g i n t h i s category and u n c e r t a i n t y over t h e i r a b i l i t y t o work f u l l - t i m e b efore the expansion o f day-care r u l e d out such separate a n a l y s i s . Experience i s c a l c u l a t e d by s u b t r a c t i n g the age a t which an i n d i v i d u a l completes h i s education (assuming grade one entrance at age s i x and no years are taken out or repeated) from the i n d i v i d u a l ' s age on the census day. As the t h r e s h o l d income i s lowered t o $300 and $100 the percentage of i n d i g e n e s who have lower incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migran£s climbs to 10% and 12.6% r e s p e c t i v e l y . However, the p o r t i o n with egual incomes drops t o 10.2% and 5.2% r e s p e c t i v e l y . The p o r t i o n with lower incomes than i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants remains constant at .9% when the t h r e s h o l d i s lowered but the p o r t i o n with equal incomes d e c l i n e s t o 8.5% and 1.6% r e s p e c t i v e l y . I n d i v i d u a l s with j u n i o r secondary o r l e s s education w i l l g e n e r a l l y have l e f t s c h o o l before they are o l d enough t o f o r m a l l y seek summer employment. 86 CHAPTER FIVE — EMPLOYMENT Chapter one e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t the r e l a t i v e performance o f migrants and non-migrants i n an expanding r e g i o n i s an important but r e l a t i v e l y untouched area of r e s e a r c h . Chapter two o u t l i n e d the l i m i t a t i o n s of the data source used i n t h i s study and e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t B.C. had an expanding economy over the p e r i o d represented i n the data. T h i s i s t h e l a s t of th r e e c h a p t e r s examining s p e c i f i c a spects o f the comparison of migrants and non-migrants i n an expanding r e g i o n . Chapter three c o n s i d e r e d the r e l a t i v e demands f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s per income earner and the numbers r e c e i v i n g t r a n s f e r payments. Chapter four examined the r e l a t i v e incomes of the migrant and non-migrant groups. T h i s chapter i s concerned with the o c c u p a t i o n a l and employment c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the two p o p u l a t i o n s . L i k e the other c h a p t e r s p r e s e n t i n g data, t h i s chapter i s d i v i d e d i n t o s i x s e c t i o n s : an i n t r o d u c t i o n to the t o p i c ; a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f the area of i n t e r e s t and the reasons f o r the i n t e r e s t ; the i n d i c a t o r s used i n t he a n a l y s i s ; the e x p e c t a t i o n s a r i s i n g from the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants and non-migrants; the p r e s e n t a t i o n of the data; and f i n a l l y , c o n c l u s i o n s t hat can be drawn from the examination of the data. the broad o c c u p a t i o n a l category d e f i n i t i o n s used i n the t a b l e , 5 . 1 INTRODUCTION The f i n a l comparisons between in-m i g r a n t s and non-migrants considered i n the t h e s i s r e l a t e to t h e i r o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s and unemployment r a t e s . The subpo p u l a t i o n o f wage earning male f a m i l y or economic household head respondents d i s c u s s e d i n the previous chapter i s f u r t h e r analyzed i n t h i s chapter. 87 5^2_THE_ISSDE The s t u d i e s reviewed i n chapter one d i d not provide d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on e i t h e r the r a t e of unemployment among in d i g e n e s or s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n on the occupations of i n - m i g r a n t s . Yet the e x i s t e n c e of high unemployment r a t e s w i t h i n age/education subgroups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n a t the end of a p e r i o d of employment growth and i n - m i g r a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o be of concern to the government of B.C. At the same time, the o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of i n - m i g r a n t s i s an important f a c e t o f the m i g r a t i o n process i n terms of the degree to which i t s u p p l i e s e i t h e r s p e c i a l i z e d workers con c e n t r a t e d i n a small number of occupations or a wide range o f workers i n a broad set of o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s . 5jJLfHE_HEASORE The census o c c u p a t i o n a l and i n d u s t r i a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s are used t o study the employment d i s t r i b u t i o n s of migrants and non-migrants. The p o p u l a t i o n s are compared i n terms of the per centage of each group i n the v a r i o u s occupations and i n d u s t r i e s . , The response to the q u e s t i o n on l a b o u r f o r c e s t a t u s i n the week p r i o r t o the census i s used i n the examination c f the employment s t a t u s e s of migrants and non-miqrants. Only i n d i v i d u a l s who 'worked f o r pay* or 'looked f o r work' are considered i n t h i s chapter. The s m a l l but n e a r l y equal p r o p o r t i o n s of the household heads i n each miqrant group f a l l i n g i n the somewhat indeterminant c a t e g o r i e s o f : 'not i n labour 88 f o r c e * , ' f a m i l y work-no pay*, and 'temporary l a y o f f * , were omitted s i n c e the these c a t e g o r i e s are l i k e l y to i n c l u d e respondents who are p h y s i c a l l y or mentally unable t o work and i n d i v i d u a l s who, f o r l i f e s t y l e or other reasons, chose not t o seek employment. although t h i s omission w i l l tend t o mask the •discouraged worker* phenonema, i t has been decided to accept t h i s u n d e r - r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the l e v e l of unemployment r a t h e r than d e a l with the u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n m o t i v a t i o n i n h e r e n t i n the other c a t e g o r i e s of l a b o u r f o r c e s t a t u s . Hence, the chapter examines o n l y male household or economic heads between the ages of s i x t e e n and s i x t y - f i v e who reported t h e i r labour f o r c e s t a t u s t o be 'worked f o r wages' or 'seeking employment 1. 1 5^^THE_EXP^ECTaTI0H Previous s t u d i e s p r o v i d e o n l y fragmentary i n f o r m a t i o n on the o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of migrants and non-migrants, the sparse i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e r e l a t e s to stagnant or l a g g i n g r e g i o n s . Hoseley (1975b) and Gray (1969) i n d i c a t e t h a t the pre-expansion p o p u l a t i o n tends to occupy newly c r e a t e d p o s i t i o n s i n s e r v i c e occupations while in-migrants are c o n c e n t r a t e d i n manufacturing r e l a t e d o c c u p a t i o n s — t h e export o r b a s i c a c t i v i t e s i n these areas. I n a d d i t i o n , Garnick e t a l (1971) suggest t h a t over t h i r t y per cent of p o s i t i o n s c r e a t e d i n a l a g g i n g r e g i o n r e q u i r e s k i l l s not found i n the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n and thus are f i l l e d by i n - m i g r a n t s . I f s i m i l a r c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l i n an h i s t o r i c a l l y expanding r e g i o n , the in-migrants* employment d i s t r i b u t i o n should be weighted toward b a s i c i n d u s t r i e s and s k i l l e d occupations t o a g r e a t e r degree than the indigenous 89 p o p u l a t i o n . Previous i n f o r m a t i o n on employment r a t e s among migrants and non-migrants i s e s s e n t i a l l y non-existent. Hone of the s t u d i e s reviewed i n chapter one i n d i c a t e i f t h e r e are s i g n i f i c a n t numbers of non-migrants who are unemployed a t the end of a p e r i o d of growth. Hence the examination of the unemployment r a t e s of the in-migrant and indigenous p o p u l a t i o n s cannot use s t u d i e s of other areas as a s t a r t i n g p o i n t . T h i s s e c t i o n examines the i n d u s t r i a l - o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the migrants/indigenes b e f o r e s t u d y i n g t h e i r employment s t a t u s . To s i m p l i f y the i n - m i g r a n t / i n d i g e n e comparisons and t o reduce the frequency of c e l l s with few respondents, the number of indigenous groups has been reduced from f o u r to two. The indigenous non-movers and i n t r a - m u n i c i p a l movers remain i n the same labour market over the p e r i o d and thus have been combined i n t o a s i n g l e g r o u p — f o r convenience the group w i l l be c a l l e d 'non-movers*. I n t r a - r e g i o n a l and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have been regrouped i n t o a c a t e g o r y l a b e l l e d * i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l * movers. Industry. Table XII shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the f o u r migrant groups among the eleven c a t e g o r i e s of the census i n d u s t r i a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . Comparing non-mover i n d i g e n e s with those who moved i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l l y i n the 1966-1971 p e r i o d r e v e a l s t h a t i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants had a m a r g i n a l l y h i g h e r per centage of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n employed i n f o r e s t r y , mining, 90 Table XII Male Household Head Industry of Employment f o r D i f f e r e n t Migrant Groups Migrant Group Industry , Non-1 •mover I n t r a - p r o v . ^ Inter- prov. I n t e r - n a t . A g r i c u l t u r e 1. 0% 1 0% 0 6% 1. 1% Fores t ry 5. 4% 5 9% 1 9% 1. 6% F i s h i n g / T r a p p i n g 0. 1% 0 2% 0 0% 0. 0% Mining 2. 0% 2 8% 4 b% i 4. 3% Manufacturing 26 1% 23 1% 22 i 26. 2% Const ruc t ion 9. 9% 11 2% 6 8% 7. 0% T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 15 4% 16 2% 16 7% 13 4% Trade 12 8% 13 8% ' 19 3% 12 8% Finance/Real E s t a t e / 4 3% 4 8% 4 8% 3 7% Insurance S e r v i c e 14 4% 14 .0% 14 5% 27 3% P u b l i c A d m i n . / 8 0% 6 9% 8 4% 2 7% Defence Number (1885) (579) (311) (187) 1. 2 inc ludes those remaining in same residence and those remaining i n same m u n i c i p a l i t y inc ludes i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l i n t r a - r e g i o n a l and i n t e r -regional movers. 91 c o n s t r u c t i o n , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n than the non-mover group. Although the non-movers had a higher per centage o f t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n employed i n manufacturing, s e r v i c e , and p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n / d e f e n c e , they a l s o had a lower per centage employed i n t r a d e and f i n a n c e - i n s u r a n c e - r e a l e s t a t e . Although i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n 'basic* i n d u s t r i e s , the d i f f e r e n c e s i n the p r o p o r t i o n s w i t h i n an i n d u s t r i a l category seldom exceeds one per centage p o i n t . Thus, among the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n there i s , at best, extremely weak support f o r the f i n d i n g s of Moseley (1975b) and Gray (1969) that l o n g e r term r e s i d e n t s tend to be employed i n s e r v i c e , c o n s t r u c t i o n , and l o c a l government a c t i v i t i e s while in-migrants entered newly c r e a t e d manufacturing p o s i t i o n s . I n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s are more h e a v i l y concentrated i n s e r v i c e - r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s than e i t h e r indigenous i n t r a -m u n i c i p a l or non-mover g r o u p s — r e l a t i v e t o i n d i g e n e s remaining w i t h i n a m u n i c i p a l i t y they have not only m a r g i n a l l y higher p r o p o r t i o n s of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n / d e f e n c e , s e r v i c e , and f i n a n c e - r e a l e s t a t e s e c t o r s but a l s o a s u b s t a n t i a l l y h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n i n t r a d e a c t i v i t i e s . Except f o r mining and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , i n d i g e n e s have higher p r o p o r t i o n s of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n a l l other i n d u s t r i e s . S i m i l a r l y , i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s have a lower p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n than indigenes i n a l l i n d u s t r i e s except mining and s e r v i c e s , with over one quarter of a l l i n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants employed i n the s e r v i c e i n d u s t r y . Consequently, both i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l in-migrants are not employed i n the i n d u s t r i e s suggested i n the s t u d i e s of h i s t o r i c a l l y non-expanding r e g i o n s by Moseley 92 {1975b) and Gray {1969). Furthermore, the p r o p e n s i t y f o r i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants i n B.C. to have higher p r o p o r t i o n s o f t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n s e r v i c e r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s than non-movers h o l d s when the pop u l a t i o n s are broken down ac c o r d i n g to s i z e o f community. 2 Three f a c t o r s may e x p l a i n the tendency f o r i n d i g e n e s i n B.C. t o be employed d i f f e r e n t l y than i n d i g e n e s who l i v e i n h i s t o r i c a l l y stagnant r e g i o n s t h a t a re e x p e r i e n c i n g short-term expansion. F i r s t , the comparison of a complete sample of migrant and non-migrant male household heads would a c t to reduce the s e r v i c e s e c t o r b i a s i n t r o d u c e d t o past s t u d i e s by i n f o r m a l survey methodologies (Gray, 1969; Moseley, 1975b) or a f a i l u r e t o i s o l a t e the f a m i l y membership of income earners (Summers, 1973). In the l e s s c o n t r o l l e d samples used i n previous s t u d i e s the b i a s would a r i s e from both s t u d e n t s working part-time and secondary wage earners who would tend t o skew the i n d u s t r i a l employment d i s t r i b u t i o n of a p o p u l a t i o n towards the s e r v i c e s e c t o r - - t h i s type o f b i a s i s l i k e l y to be roost s i g n i f i c a n t i n the non-mover pop u l a t i o n because o f a higher p r o p o r t i o n of working age students and mothers with o l d e r c h i l d r e n i n t h i s group. Second, the general h i s t o r y of employment expansion i n the pro v i n c e may permit i n d i v i d u a l s with a gi v e n l e v e l o f ed u c a t i o n to en t e r employment i n a p p r o p r i a t e i n d u s t r i e s / o c c u p a t i o n s e i t h e r d i r e c t l y a f t e r completing t h e i r f o rmal t r a i n i n g or a f t e r an interm p e r i o d of v o l u n t a r y underemployment w h i l e w a i t i n g f o r s u i t a b l e vacancies t o a r i s e . That i s , i n a d i s t r e s s e d r e g i o n b e t t e r educated i n d i v i d u a l s migrate i n search of employment or expanded c a r e e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s , l e a v i n g behind a s m a l l pool of poorly educated i n d i v i d u a l s . I f an a c t i v i t y r e q u i r i n g most of i t s employees to 93 have a minimum education {say grade 12) then e s t a b l i s h e s i t s e l f i n a community, i n - m i g r a t i o n w i l l be necessary t o f i l l the p o s i t i o n s i n the f i r m while new jobs i n the s e r v i c e s e c t o r can be f i l l e d by the poorly educated i n d i g e n e s . In an h i s t o r i c a l l y expanding r e g i o n the p r o b a b i l i t y f o r f u t u r e employment i n e s t a b l i s h i n g or expanding i n d u s t r i e s may cause b e t t e r educated i n d i v i d u a l s t o remain i n a community or r e g i o n i n order t o f i l l p o s i t i o n s as they are cr e a t e d or come vacant {this e x p l a n a t i o n a r i s e s from a combination of and e x t r a p o l a t i o n from Gray, 1969 and Summers, 1971). T h i r d , r e c e n t i n - m i g r a n t s may have d i f f i c u l t y g a i n i n g employment i n the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y {the provi n c e ' s major b a s i c i n d u s t r y ) because i t has a c l o s e d labour market i n the sense t h a t the union agreement d i c t a t e s vacant p o s i t i o n s w i l l be f i l l e d by promotion w i t h i n a f i r m u n l e s s no c u r r e n t employee wants the p o s i t i o n (Fox, 1977; see Dunlop 1966 f o r a c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n of c l o s e d l a b o u r markets). The unusually high p r o p o r t i o n o f i n t e r - n a t i o n a l immigrants employed i n the s e r v i c e s e c t o r probably a r i s e s from f a c t o r s s i m i l a r t o those used i n the previous chapter t o e x p l a i n t h e i r low mean incomes. To begin with, l i m i t e d f l u e n c y i n E n g l i s h w i l l act t o l i m i t the o c c u p a t i o n a l / i n d u s t r i a l choice of i n - m i g r a n t s . In a d d i t i o n , l a c k o f f a m i l i a r i t y with the p r o v i n c i a l wage r a t e s and c o s t of l i v i n g may make i n d u s t r i e s which are u n d e s i r a b l e to l o n g e r term r e s i d e n t s a t t r a c t i v e t o i m m i g r a n t s — t h i s tendency would be supported by the immigration p o l i c y of a s s i g n i n g e n t r y p o i n t s t o a p p l i c a n t s prepared to work i n areas o r a c t i v i t i e s having d i f f i c u l t y a t t r a c t i n g r e s i d e n t labour. F i n a l l y , the high c o s t o f the entry move would tend to l i m i t the p e r i o d of an immigrant's v o l u n t a r y unemployment while engaged i n a job search. 9H Since s e r v i c e s e c t o r employment i s l i k e l y to have high turnover r a t e s (Gordon, 1972) i t i s a n a t u r a l * s t a g i n g a r e a ' f o r recent migrants. Occupation. Garnick et a l (1971) a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t managerial, t e c h n i c a l , and s k i l l e d labour p o s i t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d with a c t i v i t i e s l o c a t i n g i n d i s t r e s s e d areas c o u l d not be f i l l e d by the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n although a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n of l e s s s k i l l e d p o s i t i o n s i n t h e s e i n d u s t r i e s c o u l d be f i l l e d by indigenes. I f the same s i t u a t i o n p r e v a i l e d i n B.C. d u r i n g the 1966-1971 p e r i o d , i t would be expected that the i n - m i g r a n t s s e t t l i n g i n communities o f a given s i z e would have a higher p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n the higher s k i l l e d occupations than the indigenous non-mover p o p u l a t i o n . The One i n a Hundred Sample c o n t a i n s i n f o r m a t i o n on the occupation of respondents and t h r e e of the c a t e g o r i e s (Managerial, S c i e n c e - e n g i n e e r i n g , and Machining) can be used t o provide a p r e l i m i n a r y i n d i c a t i o n of the s i t u a t i o n i n B.C. 3 Table XIII c o n t a i n s data on the p r o p o r t i o n of each migrant c l a s s who were employed i n the t h r e e occupations and who i n 1971 r e s i d e d i n communities o f the t h r e e s i z e s i d e n t i f i e d i n the sample. Although i n - m i g r a n t s from a l l sources had a higher p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n the high s k i l l c a t e g o r i e s than non-moving i n d i g e n e s i n both the l a r g e r and s m a l l e r communities, the d i f f e r e n c e s tend to be s m a l l i n per centage terms. However, r e l a t i v e t o non-movers, i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s have a n o t i c e a b l y h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i r t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n these o c c u p a t i o n a l groups, e s p e c i a l l y i n s c i e n c e - e n g i n e e r i n g and machining occupations., I n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have only m a r g i n a l l y h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n the high Table XIII Per Centage. of Male'Household Heads Employed ' " " " i n M a n a g e r i a l , S c i e n c e / E n g i n e e r i n g , and Machining Occupations by M i g r a t i o n Status and Community Size . . . . . c . . Occupation . Migra t ion Status r  and Community S i z e Managerial Science/Enqineer inq Machining Al 1 >30,000 non-mover 6. 6* 3. ,7% 12. 6% 22.9% (1115) i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l 12. 6* 6. ,3% 12. 2% 31.1* (534) i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l 6. 4* 5. ,758. 11. 5% 23.4* (117) i n t e r - n a t i o n a l 1. 8% 6. ,3% .27. 7% 35.8* (157) <30,000->5,000 non-mover 7. 2% 3. .7% 12. 3* 23.2% (227) i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l 4. 7% 2. .735 12. 2% 19.6* (149) i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l 9. 4% 3. 5* 9. 4% 22.3* • (87) i n t e r - n a t i o n a l 7. 3% 9. 8% 17. 1% 34.2* (42) <5,000 non-mover 3. 6% 2. 8% 12. 4% 18.8% (331) i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l 5. 2% 4. 7% y— 8. 7% 18.6% (159) i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l 6. 6% 4. 9% 11. 5% 23.0* (63) i n t e r - n a t i o n a l 6. 9% 6. 9% " 17. 2% 31.0* 96 s k i l l group than non-mover i n d i g e n e s but have a l a r g e r per centage i n managerial occupations i n the subgroup s e t t l i n g i n sma l l e r communities. In a d d i t i o n , movers remaining w i t h i n the province have a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n i n the combined c a t e g o r y o n l y i n the l a r g e s t community s i z e but have a managerial and s c i e n c e -e n g i n e e r i n g edge i n the s m a l l e s t s i z e d communities* Thus, except f o r the c l e a r l y h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f s k i l l e d i n d i v i d u a l s i n the i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrant group and a ma n a g e r i a l / s c i e n c e -engineeering weighting among migrants t o communities c o n t a i n i n g l e s s than f i v e thousand people, the high s k i l l o c c upations are not c o n s i s t e n t l y o r s t r o n g l y over-represented among s p e c i f i c i n -migrants groups s e t t l i n g i n the d i f f e r e n t s i z e d communities. Thus, the predominance o f high s k i l l personnel among in - m i g r a n t s a n t i c i p a t e d by Garnick e t a l * s (1971) general model of l a g g i n g regions i s supported i n the l a r g e s t and s m a l l e s t communities when the in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n i s con s i d e r e d as a s i n g l e u n i t but not w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l subpopulations except among i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n -migrants.* Once again t h e r e are s e v e r a l p o t e n t i a l e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r the divergence between the s i t u a t i o n s i n l a g g i n g r e g i o n s and B.C. F i r s t , i n t e r n a l promotion w i t h i n f i r m s / i n d u s t r i e s as a r e s u l t o f c l o s e d labour markets and on the job t r a i n i n g ( i n c l u d i n g a p p r e n t i c e s h i p s ) may reduce the need f o r high p r o p o r t i o n s o f upper l e v e l personnel among in-migrants. Second, the employment growth may a r i s e from the expansion of e x i s t i n g r a t h e r than the establishment o f new a c t i v i t i e s and thus r e q u i r e s s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n a l i n c r e a s e s among upper l e v e l personnel than among l e s s s k i l l e d o c cupations. F i n a l l y , t h e vac a n c i e s may a r i s e i n new town s i t u a t i o n s or i n areas where there i s a l r e a d y very c l o s e 97 t o f u l l employment whereas i n l a g g i n g areas unemployed workers f i l l some low s k i l l p o s i t i o n s while the higher s k i l l employees are imported. Employment., Table XI? shows t h e number of employed and unemployed male household head sample respondents i n occupation/migrant group s p e c i f i c c a t e g o r i e s . T h i s s u b s e c t i o n examines the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f employed in-migrants while the f o l l o w i n g s u b s e c t i o n s t u d i e s the unemployed i n d i g e n e s . Table XIV r e v e a l s t h a t , when taken together, i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants provide over 30 male household head respondents (the e g u i v a l e n t of 3000 workers i n the population) i n each of the 'managerial*, ' s a l e s ' , ' s e r v i c e s ' , • p r o c e s s i n g ' , 'machining', and ' c o n s t r u c t i o n ' occupations. In f a c t i n a l l occupations the number of employed in-migrants exceeds the number o f unemployed indigenes and, with the e x c e p t i o n of 'primary* occupations (other than farm r e l a t e d ) , the d i f f e r e n c e i s g r e a t e r than 1000 employees. C l e a r l y , the employment of i n - m i g r a n t s i s not r e s t r i c t e d t o a few i s o l a t e d occupations. Given the l a r g e numbers of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants employed i n each of the occupations l i s t e d i n Table XIV, i t would be expected t h a t they provide a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the employees i n each occupation who s e t t l e d i n d i f f e r e n t s i z e d communities i n the 1966-1971 p e r i o d . T h i s i s the case. I f migrants are s u b d i v i d e d i n t o three subgroups a c c o r d i n g to the s i z e of t h e i r community of r e s i d e n c e i n 1971, i n a l l but s i x (of f i f t y - t w o ) cases migrants from o u t s i d e the province account f o r over 30% of the p o p u l a t i o n with a given occupation moving i n t o a community of a given s i z e during the census p e r i o d Table XIV UNEMPLOYED MALE HOUSEHOLD HEADS AS A PERCENTAGE OF ALL MALE HOUSEHOLD HEADS BY MIGRATION CLASS AND OCCUPATION MIGRATION CLASS Occupation Same Dwelling Same Munic. Same District Different District Different Province Different Country Total Manage 87 42 21 30 26 8 0:214 Science & Engineering - A5 . 28 lO.O^1 1:9 5.9$ 1:17 15 13 1.6% 2:127 Teaching Etc. 34 13 ~6 16 6 10 0:85 Medicine and Health 25 18 3 3 9.1$ 1:10 1.5% 1:66 Clerical and Related 1.1$ Ii87 2.1$ 1:46 20 11 18 7 1.1% 2:189 Sales 1.8$ 3:160 1.0$ 1:99 4.7$ 2:41 1.9$ 1:52 4.8$ 3:60 4.8$ 1:20 2.5% 11:431 Services 1.7$ 2|121 3.3$ 3:87 5.6$ 1:17 7.1$ 3:39 8.0$ 2:23 5.3$ 1:18 3.8% 12:306 Farming 2.0$ 1:49 18 5 10.0$ 1:9 12.5$ 1:7 8 3.0% 3:96 Other Primary 5.1$ 4:75 13.7$ 7:44 16 9.1$ 2:20 7.7$ 1:12 3 7.6% 14:171 Processing 0.9$ 1:108 2.9$ 2:66 7.6$ 1:12 29 5.3$ 1:18 13 2.0% 5:246 Machining etc. 2.2$ 4:175 1.2$ 1:84 3.2$ 1:30 6.3$ 3:45 37 43 2.1% 9:414 Construction 6.5$ 13:187 6.1$ 6:92 6.3$ 2:30 6.3$ 3:45 5.1$ 2637 25 5.9% 26:416 Transportation 3:118 8.7$ 6:63 4.2$ 1:23 30 6.9* 2:27 10.0$ 1:9 4.4% 13:285 Other 4.3$ 5:111 4.7$ 3:61 4.0$ 1:24 24 8.3$ 2:22 10.0$ 1:9 4.62 12:251 Total 2.7% 38:1382 3.8* 30:761 3.7% 10:257 3.9% 15:370 4.5% 15:318 2.0% 4:193 ^unemployment rate number unemployed respondents: number employed respondents 99 (see Table 2 i n the f o o t n o t e s ) . Thus, dur i n g the 1966-1971 pe r i o d , i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants f i l l e d a l a r g e number of p o s i t i o n s c r e a t e d or f a l l i n g vacant i n a l l s i z e s of communities., although most of the o c c u p a t i o n s l i s t e d i n Table XIV c o n t a i n a wide range of s k i l l l e v e l s t h e r e i s c l e a r evidence t h a t i n -m i g r a t i o n provides a s i g n i f i c a n t number of 'key 1 p e r s o n n e l . The f i r s t f o u r occupations i n the t a b l e r e g u i r e s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g or experience and can be s a f e l y c l a s s e d as key p o s i t i o n s s i n c e they are e i t h e r supported by a l a r g e r number of l e s s s k i l l e d l a b o u r (management and engineering) or supply s e r v i c e s needed i n the community ( t e a c h i n g , medical and h e a l t h ) . The data i n Table XIV i n d i c a t e s t h at f i v e year in-migrants c o n t r i b u t e d 94 respondents (9400 workers i n the population) or 19% of a l l male household heads employed i n these occupations i n 1971. Hence, i t i s probable t h a t in-migrants provide more than twenty per cent of the personnel r e g u i r e d to f i l l key p o s i t i o n s c r e a t e d i n the 1966-1971 p e r i o d . Thus, i n - m i g r a t i o n provided an important segment of the h i g h l y t r a i n e d l a b o u r f o r c e r e g u i r e d during the expansion of B.C. fs p o p u l a t i o n and l a b o u r f o r c e . Despite the l a r g e number of employed in-migrants i n key occupations, t h e r e i s only minor unemployment of i n d i g e n e s i n these occupations. Of the t o t a l number o f indigenous respondents i n these o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s (396), o n l y .5% (2) are unemployed. Since both the unemployed indigenous respondents work i n s c i e n c e and e n g i n e e r i n g occupations, i t would be reasonable t o assume t h a t t h i s unemployment arose more from e i t h e r i n a p p r o p r i a t e t r a i n i n g i n t h i s s p e c i a l i z e d f i e l d or v o l u n t a r y unemployment duri n g job search r a t h e r than from a 100 f a i l u r e i n the i n f o r m a t i o n system. The f i n a l p o i n t to be r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g key personnel r e l a t e s to the value o f the human c a p i t a l provided by i n - m i g r a n t s i n these occupations. Obviously, the amount i s l a r g e . As a crude estimate of the c o s t s imposed on other governments to educate these i n - m i g r a n t s , the cummulative years o f u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t i o n among t h i s group (27,650 man years) i s m u l t i p l i e d by the per c a p i t a o p e r a t i n g c o s t s of u n i v e r s i t i e s paid by the p r o v i n c i a l government i n 1971 ($2,200 per student per c o l l e g e year) (Department o f Education, 1972:Table 3.2). Based on these c o s t s , i n - m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g the 1966-1971 perio d provided a gross i n - f l o w of u n i v e r s i t y education valued at approximately $59.2 m i l l i o n . , Combining t h i s with the minor l e v e l of unemployment among in d i g e n e s i n d i c a t e s no f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s i s necessary before r e a c h i n g the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i n - m i g r a t i o n of key personnel provides a s u b s t a n t i a l b e n e f i t t o the province i n terms of savings i n t r a i n i n g c o s t s , the p r o v i s i o n o f personnel r e g u i r e d to maintain l e v e l s of government f i n a n c e d s e r v i c e s (education, h e a l t h ) , and the supply o f p e r s o n n e l important f o r the expansion of the lower s k i l l l a b o u r f o r c e (managers, e n g i n e e r s ) . Thus, the f i g u r e s i n Table XIV show t h a t i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t male household heads provide a l a r g e number of employees i n a l l occupations r a t h e r than c o n c e n t r a t i n g i n a few s p e c i f i c occupations. At the same time, t h e s e in-migrants supply many of the 'key personnel* employed i n the province i n 1971 and b r i n g i n t o the p r o v i n c e formal e d u c a t i o n valued a t n e a r l y s i x t y m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . OnemploYment,, T h i s s u b s e c t i o n views the sample's unemployed indigenous respondents from t h r e e p e r s p e c t i v e s . F i r s t , the 101 o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the indigenous unemployed i s examined (using the data shown i n Table XIV). Second, the unemployment r a t e among educ a t i o n s p e c i f i c subgroups of each migrant c l a s s i s s t u d i e d . T h i r d , the unemployed i n the th r e e occupations c o n t a i n i n g the l a r g e s t number of unemployed i n d i g e n e s a r e checked i n order to d i s c o v e r i f they are d i f f e r e n t from the unemployed indigenes s t u d i e d a t a p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l of aggregation i n the f i r s t two p a r t s of t h i s s u b s e c t i o n . Although the s m a l l number of unemployed respondents i n each occupation/migrant c l a s s subcategory o f Table XIV makes d e t a i l e d study of s p e c i f i c s u b c a t e g o r i e s i n a p p r o p r i a t e , s e v e r a l i n t e r e s t i n g g eneral c o n d i t i o n s are apparent i n the t a b l e . The f i g u r e s i n the f i n a l row of the t a b l e i n d i c a t e t hat the unemployment r a t e among indigenous respondents i s 3* 351 with n i n e t y - t h r e e male household head respondents (9300 workers i n the population) unemployed. S l i g h t l y over 59% of t h e unemployed ind i g e n e s changed r e s i d e n c e over the census p e r i o d , a higher m o b i l i t y r a t e than t h a t of the employed indigenous p o p u l a t i o n (whose r a t e i s s l i g h t l y under 50%). T h i s suggests t h a t a general r e s i s t a n c e t o r e l o c a t i o n i s not a primary cause of unemployment among the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . The f i n a l g e n e r a l c o n d i t i o n evident i n Table XIV i s the very s m a l l number of indigenous unemployed i n each occupation. Even with the broad occupation c a t e g o r i e s used here, o n l y t h r e e occupations have ten o r more respondents (1,000 or more workers i n the popu l a t i o n ) seeking employment; c o n s t r u c t i o n (2400), t r a n s p o r t a t i o n (1000), and primary (1300) (followed by machining (900) and s e r v i c e s (900))s. O v e r a l l , examination o f Table XIV i n d i c a t e s t h a t the unemployment r a t e among indigenous male household heads i s 1 0 2 approximately 3%, almost 60% of the unemployed respondents changed r e s i d e n c e s over the census p e r i o d , and t h e a b s o l u t e number of unemployed i n each occupation i s s m a l l ( g e n e r a l l y l e s s than 1000 workers). At t h i s p o i n t , the focus of the a n a l y s i s s h i f t s from the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the unemployed t o the r a t e o f unemployment w i t h i n education/age subgroups of the po p u l a t i o n . In order t o reduce the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the employed in-migrant p o p u l a t i o n has e i t h e r a form of human c a p i t a l or an employment ac c e s s advantage over the unemployed indigenous p o p u l a t i o n , in-migrants who had taken a s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g course, who were self-employed, or who were engaged i n unpaid f a m i l y work are excluded from the sub-po p u l a t i o n examined i n the remainder of the t a b l e s i n t h i s c h a p t e r . 6 With these r e s t r i c t i o n s imposed on the s e l e c t i o n o f the in-migrant sub-populations under study i t i s f a i r l y reasonable to assume t h a t indigenes and in-migrants with comparable l e v e l s o f education a re g e n e r a l l y i n t e r - c h a n g e a b l e . 7 Before examining the unemployment r a t e s w i t h i n education s p e c i f i c subgroups of the male household head p o p u l a t i o n , i t i s necessary t o e s t a b l i s h an unemployment r a t e t h a t can be con s i d e r e d r e s i d u a l or a s s o c i a t e d with the normal process o f job-s w i t c h i n g which i s always o c c u r r i n g i n the labour market. Backman ( 1 9 6 4 ) i d e n t i f i e s an unemployment r a t e of H% f o r the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole t o be the maximum r a t e t h a t a r i s e s from r e s i d u a l f a c t o r s and S i e b e r t ( 1 9 7 3 ) i n d i c a t e s t h a t 51 i s the maxumum r a t e o f f r i c t i o n a l unemployment i n the p o p u l a t i c n a s a whole. The male household head respondents analyzed i n t h i s chapter w i l l have a g r e a t e r commitment to f u l l time employment than the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole. In a d d i t i o n , some subgroups of 103 respondents t h a t would be counted as unemployed i n n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c s ( i . e . respondents t e m p o r a r i l y l a i d - o f f or with a job but not working) have been omitted from the subpopulation under study. Hence, an unemployment r a t e of 555 among the male household head subpopulation w i l l be used as the c r i t e r i o n f o r determining s i g n i f i c a n t l e v e l s of unemployment among indigenes.« TABLE XV: Unemployed Hale Household Heads as a Per Centage o f A l l Male Household Heads w i t h i n Age/Education/Migration Status Subgroups. EDOCATION MIGRANT STATUS Non-mover In t r a - p r o v . I n t e r - p r o v . I n t e r - n a t . age: 16 -45 J u n i o r s e c . y -1.4% 6.2% 9.2% 3.6% or l e s s (3:212) * (19:309) (7:76) (1:28) Senior 0.0% 3.0% 1. 6% 4.9% secondary (0:115) (9:302) (1:6 3) (2:41) U n i v e r s i t y 4.2% 2.5% 0. 0% 0.0% educated (2:48) (3:122) (0:34) (0:35) age: 46 -65 J u n i o r sec. 4.9% 7.0% 16.7% 10.0% o r l e s s (17:344) (9:154) (4:24) (1:8) Senior 2.7% 2.1% 0. 0% 0.0% secondary (5:182) (2:97) (0:18) (0:8) U n i v e r s i t y 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% educated (0:30) (1:22) (0:12) (0:7) * number unemployed:total number Table XV d i s p l a y s the data r e l a t i n g t o unemployment w i t h i n education/age groups. The s m a l l number of unemployed respondents n e c e s s i t a t e s aggregation i n t o l a r g e r c a t e g o r i e s than were used i n the income a n a l y s i s : i n d i v i d u a l s with some u n i v e r s i t y e ducation were combined with those who had completed t h e i r f i r s t degree t o form the * u n i v e r s i t y educated* group and the respondents are d i v i d e d i n t o o n l y two age groups (16-45 and 46-65) Examination of Table XV r e v e a l s t h a t only respondents with j u n i o r secondary or l e s s e d u c a t i o n had unemployment r a t e s higher 104 than 5%. However, non-movers with t h i s l e v e l of education had unemployment r a t e s below 555.; Although the number of unemployed respondents i n each subgroup i s s m a l l , t h i s dicotomy between non-movers and movers g e n e r a l l y holds when the n o n - u n i v e r s i t y educated respondents are broken i n t o ten year age groups (see Table 3 at the end o f the f o o t n o t e s ) . The e x i s t e n c e o f t h i s g e n e r a l l y high l e v e l of unemployment among respondents with l e s s than grade 10 education who move i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l l y or i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l l y concomitant with much lower l e v e l s of unemployment among non-movers with the same l e v e l o f education suggests these movers encounter a problem i n r e c i e v i n g a c c u r a t e l a b o u r market i n f o r m a t i o n when they l e a v e a l o c a l (municipal) l a b o u r market. Since t h i s group w i l l c o n t a i n a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f ' f u n c t i o n a l l y i l l i t e r a t e ' i n d i v i d u a l s — t h o s e who are unable to f i l l out job a p p l i c a t i o n forms and who have d i f f i c u l t y r e a d i n g and c a r r y i n g out b a s i c computational tasks (VRB, 1 9 7 6 ) — i t seems l o g i c a l t o e x p l a i n t h e i r higher unemployment r a t e s as an outcome of i n e f f i c i e n t m igration d e c i s i o n s a r i s i n g from both d i f f i c u l t y i n e s t i m a t i n g the c o s t of a move (thus l i m i t i n g subsequent l o c a t i o n s h i f t s ) and an i n a b i l i t y to c o r r e c t l y a n t i c i p a t e which d e s t i n a t i o n would o f f e r the h i g h e s t p r o b a b l i t y o f s e c u r i n g employment a t a given time. .. Table XV a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h a t , i n 16-45 a g e / j u n i o r secondary or l e s s e d u c a t i o n group, the number of employed i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants i s much l a r g e r than the number of unemployed indigenes. At the same time 86% (19 of 22) o f the unemployed indigenous respondents moved during the 1961-1977 p e r i o d . In t h i s education/age group then, the high l e v e l o f m o b i l i t y and the number of s u i t a b l e jobs c r e a t e d or vacated over the study p e r i o d 105 tends t o support the poor labo u r market i n f o r m a t i o n e x p l a n a t i o n o u t l i n e d i n the p r e v i o u s paragraph. The s i t u a t i o n i s n o t i c e a b l y d i f f e r e n t i n the 46-65 a g e / j u n i o r secondary or l e s s education group. The f i g u r e s i n T a b l e XV r e v e a l t h a t the number o f unemployed i n d i g e n e s i n t h i s group i s l a r g e r than the number of employed i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n -migrants. In a d d i t i o n , o n l y 3555 (9 of 26) of these unemployed indigenous respondents moved d u r i n g the study p e r i o d . In t h i s education/age group then, any labour market i n f o r m a t i o n problems w i l l be compounded by a g e n e r a l shortage o f s u i t a b l e employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Thus, the data i n Table XV shows that unemployment r a t e s over f i v e per cent are a s s o c i a t e d with grade t e n or lower l e v e l s of education and i n t e r - m u n i c i p a l m i g r a t i o n . S i n c e , i n the 16-45 age group, r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e numbers of comparably educated i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l i n-migrants are employed, i t appears t h a t the unemployment r a t e o f t h i s subgroup of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n c o u l d be reduced by a i d i n g t h e i r e n t r y i n t o p o s i t i o n s t h a t are c r e a t e d and/or f a l l vacant d u r i n g a given time p e r i o d . The f i n a l part of t h i s s e c t i o n compares the unemployed i n the s e r v i c e , machining, and c o n s t r u c t i o n o c c u p a t i o n s t c those employed i n - m i g r a n t s with no formal t r a i n i n g beyond t h e i r i n d i c a t e d l e v e l of education. Table 5.5.5 g i v e s the counts i n the v a r i o u s migration-age-education c a t e g o r i e s f o r each of the occupations under study. Although the number of respondents i n each c e l l i s very s m a l l , the data i s o n l y used t o compare the s i t u a t i o n i n these o c c u p a t i o n s w i t h the more g e n e r a l cases examined e a r l i e r i n t h i s s u b s e c t i o n . B a s i c a l l y , the t a b l e 106 TABLE H I : Counts o f the Indigenous Unemployed and and In-migrant Employed Po p u l a t i o n s by Age Groups and Education L e v e l s f o r S e r v i c e , Machining, and C o n s t r u c t i o n Occupations AGE J u n i o r o r Less High or Grade 13 Some U n i v e r s i t y GROUP Tn I n t e r - I n t e r - In I n t e r - I n t e r - In I n t e r - I n t e r -Prov Prov. N a t M Prov Prov. N a t ' l Prov Prov. N a t * l SERVICES 1 6 - 2 5 — 1 1 10 3 - - 1 2 6 - 3 5 — 2 1 3 i 2 3 — 2 1 3 6 - 4 5 - - 3 — 1 3 2 — — 2 4 6 - 6 5 3 3 2 1 » 3 3 MACHINING 1 6 - 2 5 - - — — 1 * 6 5 2 6 - 3 5 — 1 4 1* 8 7 — — 1 3 6 - 4 5 1 2 1 1 4 2 1* 4 6 - 6 5 3 2 — 1 1 — — — . — CONSTRUCTION 1 6 - 2 5 — 1 2 1 * 6 1 — 1 1 2 6 - 3 5 — 4 4 1 3 4 — 1 — 3 6 - 4 5 2* 2 2 1* 2 2 4 6 - 6 5 6* 2 1 8J 1 1 • s u p e r s c r i p t s i n d i c a t e the number i n each c e l l with some form of s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n i n g confirms the d i s t r i b u t i o n t h a t would be expected from p r e v i o u s d i s c u s s i o n s , . The f i r s t point mentioned e a r l i e r and r e i n f o r c e d by Table 5 . 5 . 5 i s the sma l l number of unemployed i n age/education subgroups. When i t i s understood t h a t the o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s used here are extremely broad and t h a t the three occupations i n c l u d e d i n the t a b l e were s e l e c t e d f o r s c r u t i n y because they have the l a r g e s t number o f unemployed indigenous i n d i v i d u a l s , the g e n e r a l l y uniform d i s t r i b u t i o n of the unemployed a c r o s s age and educ a t i o n groups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n i s evident. The major e x c e p t i o n t o the dispersed p a t t e r n occurs i n the 4 6 - 6 5 age group. The unemployed indigenous i n d i v i d u a l s i n these i n d u s t r i e s , u n l i k e the employed i n - m i g r a n t s , tend to be concentrated i n the 4 6 - 6 5 age group ( 4 of 8 i n s e r v i c e s , 4 o f 9 i n machining, and 15 o f 20 i n c o n s t r u c t i o n ) . Except f o r s e r v i c e 107 occupations, the number of indigenous unemployed i n t h i s age group eguals or exceeds the number of employed i n - m i g r a n t s . Thus, t h i s g r o u p 1 s r a t e of unemployment i s probably due t o i n a p p r o p r i a t e t r a i n i n g , e x p e r i e n c e , o r age ( s t r u c t u r a l unemployment i n S i e b e r t ' s (1973) terms) and a r e l u c t a n c e to move 1 2 r a t h e r than i n f o r m a t i o n r e l a t e d problems. 5.6 SUMMARY The examination o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the unemployed indigenous and employed in-migrant male household heads i n d i c a t e s t h a t in-migrants provide a number of workers i n managerial and • p r o f e s s i o n a l ' occupations while the unemployment l e v e l of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n these occupations i s very low. In most other o c c u p a t i o n s , i n - m i g r a t i o n p r o v i d e s a s u b s t a n t i a l number of workers o v e r a l l and a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the workers who move i n t o a l l s i z e s of cummunities over the census p e r i o d . Indigenes remaining w i t h i n a community were not, as found i n s t u d i e s of stagnant r e g i o n s , more concentrated i n s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s than i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l , i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l , or i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants. I n f a c t , among i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants the p r o p o r t i o n i n s e r v i c e r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s was higher than the p r o p o r t i o n of non-mover i n d i g e n e s i n these i n d u s t r i e s . At the same time, with the exception of i n t e r -n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s , the p o p u l a t i o n moving t o B.C. communities d i d not have c o n s i s t e n t l y higher p r o p o r t i o n s of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n high s k i l l occupations than non-movers. Thus, although i n -migrants provide a s i g n i f i c a n t number o f key personnel, the 108 miqrant stream does not have s t r o n g l y d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e numbers of i n d i v i d u a l s i n high s k i l l o c c u p a t i o n s . O v e r a l l , there were 93 unemployed indigenous male household head respondents (the e q u i v a l e n t of 9300 i n d i v i d u a l s i n the population) y i e l d i n g an unemployment r a t e o f 3.3% among these i n d i g e n e s . The unemployed in d i g e n e s were spread over s e v e r a l occupations with a very low l e v e l of unemployment w i t h i n •managerial', ' s c i e n c e and e n g i n e e r i n g ' , "medicine and h e a l t h * , and 'teaching* occupations. However, d e s p i t e the g e n e r a l l y low l e v e l s o f unemployment among indigenous male household heads, the subgroup of i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants with grade t e n or l e s s education had unemployment r a t e s over 5%. I n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants i n t h i s subgroup a l s o had unemployment r a t e s over 5% but non-movers with t h i s l e v e l o f education had unemployment r a t e s below 5%. Within t h i s e d u c a t i o n a l subgroup, the unemployed indigenous respondents aged 16-45 had a high r a t e of m o b i l i t y and were found t o c o e x i s t with a much l a r g e r number o f employed i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s of the same age and l e v e l of education. Unemployed in d i g e n e s i n the j u n i o r secondary or l e s s e d u c a t i o n and 46-65 age subgroup were found t o not only have a much lower l e v e l of m o b i l i t y but a l s o to outnumber the employed i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n-migrants of comparable age and education. F i n a l l y , the unemployed i n the t h r e e occupations with the l a r g e s t a b s o lute number of indigenous unemployed were found t o be g e n e r a l l y d i s p e r s e d among age/education subgroups except f o r some c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n the 46-65 age group. FOOTNOTES In t h i s chapter female household heads are not examined s i n c e many p o s i t i o n s were, i n 1971, s t i l l r e s t r i c t e d t o the male sex. At the same time, non-head females and non-head males are excluded s i n c e the place of employment of the head tends to d i c t a t e t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n , o f t e n t o an area i n which a p p r o p r i a t e employment i s not a v a i l a b l e . Although they may be * l o o k i n g f o r work* t h e i r l o c a t i o n or a v a i l a b l e hours may reduce t h e i r o p p o r t u n i t i e s to an e x t e n t t h a t they Can be co n s i d e r e d *not i n the labour f o r c e * f o r p r a c t i c a l purposes. I n c l u d i n g these s u b - c a t e g o r i e s of ind i g e n e s i n the a n a l y s i s would r e s u l t i n m i s l e a d i n g c o n c l u s i o n s . They have, t h e r e f o r e , been ommitted. Table 1 at the end of these f o o t n o t e s c o n t a i n s the r e l e v a n t data, The r e l a t i v e l y low p r o p o r t i o n c f indigenes employed i n the mining i n d u s t r y i n d i c a t e s t h a t i t i s a low c h o i c e a c t i v i t y (Webster, 1977), T h i s i s due t o i t s tendency to be i s o l a t e d , d i r t y , and low paying r e l a t i v e t o f o r e s t r y ( F a i r f i e l d , personnel communication). The f u l l of l i s t o f occ u p a t i o n s can be seen i n Tab l e XIV, The a n a l y s i s must be i n d i c a t i v e s i n c e each of the remaining occupation c a t e g o r i e s may i n c l u d e some s u p e r v i s o r y personnel. Note t h a t the f i f t e e n o c c upations l i s t e d i n Table XIV are i d e n t i c a l t o the eighteen category c l a s s i f i c a t i o n used by the census except t h a t occupations i n r e l i g i o n ; a r t i s t i c and r e c r e a t i o n ; and s o c i a l s c i e n c e s have been i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the " o t h e r " category because of the s m a l l number of respondents i n these o c c u p a t i o n s . For a d e t a i l e d l i s t i n g o f t h e occupations i n each c a t e g o r y see S t a t i s t i c s Canada (1972). I n c l u d i n g Teaching and Medical occupations as s k i l l e d personnel t h a t are not d i r e c t l y r e q u i r e d by expanding a c t i v i t i e s does not a l t e r t h e gen e r a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of Table XIII except by r a i s i n g the p r o p o r t i o n of i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants i n t h e s k i l l e d category t o over 40% i n each of the th r e e community s i z e s . The high unemployment r a t e amongst, and low i n -mi g r a t i o n , of primary workers p o i n t s toward a case of s t r u c t u r a l r a t h e r than f r i c t i o n a l unemployment. E l i m i n a t i n g self-employed i n d i v i d u a l s removed ten unemployed i n d i g e n e s , t h i r t y - e i g h t employed i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migrants, and seventeen employed i n t e r -n a t i o n a l migrants from the male-household head subpopulation d e s c r i b e d i n the p r e v i o u s t a b l e s of t h i s s e c t i o n . T h i s i s 11.0%, 10.9% and 7.9% of the r e s p e c t i v e 'migrant 1 p o p u l a t i o n s . Thus, migrants e n t e r i n g the province from other c o u n t r i e s have both a lower r a t e and a b s o l u t e number o f self-employed i n d i v i d u a l s than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . ; At the same time, more than one t e n t h of t h e unemployed indigenous sub-population was self-employed. I n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants are not considered i n t h i s a n a l y s i s because the p r e v i o u s chapter found t h a t they had lower mean incomes than indigenes; t h i s suggests the p o s i t i o n s they occupy may be too low paying t o a t t r a c t i n d i g e n e s . The a n a l y i s i s c o n c e n t r a t e s on the unemployment r a t e of indigenes while f o r the most p a r t i g n o r i n g the unemployment r a t e of i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r -n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s . T h i s i s r a t i o n a l i z e d by the assumption that unemployment among in-mi g r a n t s i s i n d i c a t i v e of a poor m i g r a t i o n d e c i s i o n and t h a t i t w i l l be l e s s of a conern to the government of the r e c e i v i n g province than unemployment among i n d i g e n e s . The respondents are d i v i d e d i n t o two age groups because th e r e i s a tendency f o r i n d i v i d u a l s i n the 45-65 age group to withdraw from the f u l l - t i m e l a b o u r market e i t h e r v o l u n t a r i l y or because of poor h e a l t h (see chapter f o u r ) . T h i s e a r l y withdrawl i s l i k e l y to i n f l a t e the unemployment r a t e of the o l d e r age group. From the economist's viewpoint, the shortness of t h e i r remaining w o r k l i f e reduces the present v a l u e of the d i f f e r e n t i a l between the o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n wage r a t e s below a l e v e l t h a t would compensate f o r the c o s t of moving. At the same time, i f they are (which i s l i k e l y ) long term r e s i d e n t s , t h e i r l i n k s with the community and the s t r u c t u r e of t h e i r job market i n f o r m a t i o n flows w i l l probably a c t to make them take t h e i r chances where they are rather than migrate i n search of employment. Table 1 Industry Agriculture Forestry Fishing/Trap. Mining Manufacturing Construction Transportation Trade Fin./Real Estate/ Insurance Service Pub. Ad./ Defence Number Industry of Employment for Male Household Heads by Migrant Group and Size of Community Community Size and Migrant Group >30,000 1 ? Intra 1 Intra munic. prov, 0.2 0.4 <30,000 - >5000 <5000 1.4 0.3 0.6 23.7 10.5 17.1 15.2 6.0 16.1 8.9 (1115) 1 2.7 0.0 0.0 .21.8 10.1 17.1 16.7 7.4 16.3 7.4 (534) Inter-prov. 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 20.4 6.4 17.8 24.2 5.1 15.9 8.3 (117) Inter-na^ 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 28.1 7.0 15.9 14.9 5.3 28,1 1.8 (157) Intra- Intra- Inter- Inter- Intra- Intra- Inter-munic. prov. prov. 0.3 9.5 0.0 4.2 35.5 9.0 10.6 10.6 2.1 11.7 6.4 (277) 0.0 7.4 0.7 2.7 27.5 7.4 15.4 16.1 5.4 10.7 6.7 (149) 0.0 5.7 0.0 8.0 23.0 4.6 14.9 13.8 5.7 14.9 9.2 (87) nat. munic. prov. 0.0 2.1 1.9 3.9 13.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 4.2 6.9 28.6 29.0 21.4 4.8 - 8.8 15.7 14.3 15.4 14.5 9.5 7.9 8.2 2.4 1.5 0.0 17.8 11.5 14.5 7.1 6.6 6.9 (42) (331) (159) prov, 1.6 1.6 0.0 6.3 28.6 11.1 14.3 15.9 3.2 9.5 7.9 (63) Inter-net. 0.0 6.9 0.0 13.8 17.2 6.9 14.1 10.3 0.0 31.0 0.0 (29) non- and intra-municipal movers 2. inter-municipal , int ra - regional , and inter-regional movers TABLE 2z I n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n -migrants as as a P r o p o r t i o n of A l l Male Household Heads Moving i n t o V a r i o u s Community S i z e s . COMMUNITY SIZE OCCUPATION >30,000 <30,000-->5.000 <5.000 management 27. 3%* 38. 9% 40.0% (44) 2 (18) (15) s c i e n c e / 50.0% 63. 6% 41.7% engineer., (32) (11) (12) t e a c h i n g 41.7% 80. 0% 22. 2% (24) ( 5) ( 9) medicine 71.4% 71.4% 75.0% 6 h e a l t h ( 7) ( 7 ) ( D c l e r i c a l 50.0% 30.8% 50.0% 6 r e l a t e d (32) (13) ( 8) s a l e s 53. 7% 36. 8% 47.0% (95) (38) (17) s e r v i c e s 50.0% 30. 8% 50.0% (18) (20) (2 8) farming 40. 0% 80. 0% 50.0 % ( 5 ) { 5) ( 6 ) other 20.0% 38. 9% 23.5% primary ( 5) (18) (17) p r o c e s s i n g 47. 4% 40.6% 47. H% (19) (32) (19) machining 61.3% 45.5% 46.2% (80) (33) (26) c o n s t r u c t . 57. 1% 42.3% 24. 4% (49) (26) (22) t r a n s . 45. 2% 46.2% 31.8% (31) (26) (22) other 59.4% 36. 4% 40.0% (64) (22) (25) t o t a l 51.4% 46. 0% 36.1% (523) (274) (249) 1 % of a l l i n - m i g r a n t s who are from i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l sources 2 t o t a l number of i n - m i g r a n t s from a l l sources 113 TABLE 3: Unemployed Hale Household Heads as a Per Ecntage of A l l N o n - u n i v e r s i t y Educated Male Household Heads w i t h i n Age/Education/Migration Status Subgroups. . migrant s t a t u s e d u c a t i o n non-mover i n t r a - p r o v . i n t e r - p r o v . i n t e r - n a t . j u n i o r sec. 0.0% 4.3% 7.7% 0.0% or l e s s (0:2) * (2:47) {1:13) {0:4) s e n i o r 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% secondary (0:7) (6:70) (0:13) (0:9) age: 26-35 j u n i o r sec. 1.9% 6.1% 12.1% 7.1% or l e s s (1:54) (8: 132) (4:33) (1: 14) s e n i o r 0.0% 1.3% 3.3% 5.0% secondary (0:38) (2:160) (1:30) (1:20) age: 36-45 j u n i o r sec. 1.3% 6.9% 6.7% 0.0% or l e s s (2:156) (9:130) (2:30) (0:10) s e n i o r 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 8.3% secondary (0:70) (1:72) (0:20) (1: 12) age: 46-65 j u n i o r sec. 4.9% 7.0% 16.7% 10.0% or l e s s (17:344) (9:154) (4:24) (1:8) s e n i o r 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% secondary (5:182) (2:97) (0:18) (0:8) >- number unemployed:total number note: Unemployment l e v e l s below 5% i n the i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrant/>junior secondary education/16-25 age subgroup may be e x p l a i n e d by a p r o p e n s i t y to remain i n s c h o o l u n t i l graduation unless a t t r a c t e d i n t o the l a b o u r market by a s p e c i f i c job. The s m a l l number of non-movers i n t h i s category would then be e x p l a i n e d by a tendency to leave the p a r e n t a l home upon g a i n i n g (or to meet the l o c a t i o n a l requirements of) employment. The high r a t e of unemployment among the youngest s e n i o r secondary educated group may be e x p l a i n e d by l a r g e number of respondents who have r e c e n t l y been t h r u s t i n t o the f u l l time labo u r market f o r the f i r s t time. 114 CHAPTER VI SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND IMPLICATIONS Ch a p t e r ' o n e - e s t a b l i s h e d t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r the study of migrants and non-migrants i n an h i s t o r i c a l l y expanding r e g i o n . Chapter two o u t l i n e d the s t r u c t u r e , problems, and advantages o f the p o p u l a t i o n sample to be used as the data source f o r the study. Chapter t h r e e , f o u r , and f i v e examined the data r e l a t i n g t o the dependency r a t i o s , mean incomes, employment r a t e s and other c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d areas of i n t e r e s t . T h i s c hapter summarizes the f i n d i n g s of these c h a p t e r s and o u t l i n e s the major c o n c l u s i o n s and i m p l i c a t i o n s t h a t a r i s e from these f i n d i n g s . The chapter i s d i v i d e d i n t o f i v e s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t i s a i n t r o d u c t i o n . S e c t i o n two summarizes the major f i n d i n g s of the a n a l y s i s c h a p t e r s and s e c t i o n t h r e e draws c o n c l u s i o n s on i n - m i g r a t i o n to B.C. The f o u r t h s e c t i o n i n d i c a t e s the major i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the study and s e c t i o n f i v e summarized the t h e s i s as a whole. 6.1 INTRODUCTION The t h e s i s has sought t o i n c r e a s e the l e v e l of understanding of the outcome of i n - m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g a p e r i o d of economic growth. Using B.C. as an example of an area with a long term r e c o r d of employment growth and net i n - m i g r a t i o n , i t p r o v i d e s a more complete p i c t u r e than has been a v a i l a b l e i n p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s by comparing not o n l y the incomes but a l s o the dependency r a t i o s , the o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , and the employment r a t e s of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n with those of recent i n-migrants. The purpose of t h i s chapter i s t o summarize the f i n d i n g s and i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the a n a l y s i s which was done i n c h a p t e r s t h r e e through f i v e . 115 6.2 MAJOB FINDINGS OF THE ANALYSIS The t h e s i s i s the f i r s t study o f migrants and non-migrants t h a t s i m u l t a n e o u s l y : uses a l a r g e geographic area with an expanding economy as a u n i t o f a n a l y s i s , u t i l i z e s a sample of the area's e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n as a data source, and c o n t r o l s important sociodemographic/economic v a r i a b l e s . The a n a l y s i s i s l a r g e l y e x p l o r a t o r y , seeking to e i t h e r r e f i n e the scant and p a r t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n on i n - m i g r a n t s and i n d i g e n e s o c c a s i o n a l l y mentioned i n s t u d i e s of s t a b l e and expanding areas (Courchene, 1974; Hoseley, 1973b; and Summers, 1973) or to compare the outcome of i n - m i g r a t i o n t o B.C. during the 1966-1971 p e r i o d with the more complete s t u d i e s of the s i t u a t i o n i n l a g g i n g areas {Bender, Green, and Campbell, 1971; Gray, 1969; Hansen, 1973; e t c ) . The major f i n d i n g s of the a n a l y s i s are: Income. : P r e v i o u s s t u d i e s have i n d i c a t e d t h a t , f o r Canada as a whole, migrants are b e t t e r educated and younger than the non-migrant p o p u l a t i o n (Stone, 1969; George 1970) and t h a t , at the l o c a l l e v e l , the i m p o r t a t i o n of managerial and t e c h n i c a l p ersonnel i s a common reguirment of i n d u s t r i a l expansion (Garnick e t a l , 1971). In a d d i t i o n , i t has been found t h a t migrants earn more at t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n s than comparable non-migrants remaining at t h e i r o r i g i n (Greenwood, 1975; Cox, 1971). These f i n d i n g s , and p r e l i m i n a r y examination of the B.C. s i t u a t i o n by Courchene (1974), suggest t h a t in-migrants have higher incomes than i n d i g e n e s . However, the a n a l y s i s i n chapter f o u r i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s i s not true f o r the mean wage income of e i t h e r the p o p u l a t i o n of B.C. as a whole, or f o r the majority of the 116 experience and education c o n t r o l l e d sub-groups of male household heads. The higher mean incomes c f young in-migrants d i s c o v e r e d by Courchene (1974) and ev i d e n t i n the census sample data used i n t h i s study a re not g e n e r a l l y e v i d e n t when ed u c a t i o n and labour f o r c e e x p e r i e n c e are s i m u l t a n e o u s l y h e l d constant. Thus, i n the B.C. case, the income advantage enjoyed by i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n -migrants i n the 10-19 experience group appears t o a r i s e from a higher o v e r a l l l e v e l o f education among these i n - m i g r a n t s than e x i s t s i n t h i s group of ind i g e n e s . In other e x p e r i e n c e groups, indigenes g e n e r a l l y have higher mean incomes than i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s , with o r without c o n t r o l s f o r education. O v e r a l l then, i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrant male household heads r a r e l y have higher mean incomes than comparable i n d i g e n e s . At the same time, i n t e r - n a t i o n a l in-migrants c o n s i s t e n t l y have mean wage incomes t h a t are lower than those of both comparable ind i g e n e s and i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants. 1- Thus, the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n g e n e r a l l y performs b e t t e r than comparable subgroups of in-mig r a n t s from both Canadian and i n t e r - n a t i o n a l sources. Even though indigenous male household heads have hig h e r mean incomes than comparable i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l in-migrants i n t h i r t y -one of the t h i r t y - s i x p o s s i b l e p a i r wise comparisons of s i m i l a r e xperience/education s p e c i f i c subgroups, there i s a smal l p r o p o r t i o n of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n who have equal or lower mean incomes than comparable i n - m i g r a n t s . Four o f the f i v e p a i r i n g s i n which i n d i g e n e s have lower mean incomes than comparable in-migrants occur i n the 10-19 years o f experience group. These p a i r i n g s c o n t a i n t h i r t y per cen t o f t h e i n d i g e n e s i n t h i s experience group while an a d d i t i o n a l t h i r t y - s e v e n per cent have mean wage incomes which are equal t o those of 117 comparable i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l migrants. Although they are a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f indigenous male household heads, there are 162 respondents (16200 i n d i v i d u a l s i n the population) i n the subgroups with 10-19 years of experience t h a t have lower mean incomes than i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a n t s . j££l22I£nt.._ The a n a l y s i s i n chapter f i v e i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n -migrants to B.C. are employed i n d i f f e r e n t o c cupations and i n d u s t r i e s than i n - m i g r a n t s t o l a g g i n g r e g i o n s . Indigenes who remained i n the same m u n i c i p a l i t y over the 1966-1971 p e r i o d were g e n e r a l l y found to have a lower p r o p o r t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n employed i n " s e r v i c e - r e l a t e d " i n d u s t r i e s than i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l , i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l , or i n t e r - n a t i o n a l migrants. , T h i s i s the r e v e r s e of the s i t u a t i o n i n l a g g i n g r e g i o n s (see f o r example Gray, 1969). S i m i l a r l y , the only group of i n - m i g r a n t s who had a c o n s i s t e n t l y higher p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n high s k i l l o c c u pations than i n d i g e n e s remaining i n the same m u n i c i p a l i t y over the 1966-1971 p e r i o d were i n t e r - n a t i o n a l immigrants. T h i s i s c o n t r a r y to the s i t u a t i o n i n l a g g i n g r e g i o n s where the i n -migrant flow g e n e r a l l y has a higher p r o p o r t i o n o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n i n higher s k i l l occupations (Garnick e t a l , 1971). At another l e v e l , the a n a l y s i s found migrants s u p p l i e d a s i g n i f i c a n t number o f workers i n a wide v a r i e t y of occupations. The p r o v i s i o n of l a b o u r by in-migrants can be viewed at two l e v e l s . F i r s t , they f i l l key p o s i t i o n s , ones which are towards the top of the employment h i e r a r c h y , Second, i n - m i g r a n t s provide workers with lower s k i l l l e v e l s : the number of employed migrants exceeds the number o f unemployed in d i g e n e s by a f a c t o r of approximately 2.5 to one f o r the p o p u l a t i o n as a whole (137400 employed in-m i g r a n t s vs 53800 unemployed i n d i g e n e s ) . For male 118 household heads the r a t i o i s approximately 5.7 to 1 (53500 employed in-migrants vs 9300 unemployed i n d i g e n e s ) . 2 T r a n s f e r . o f Human C a p t j a i . when they move migrants c a r r y with them human c a p i t a l gained from formal e d u c a t i o n and i n f o r m a l t r a i n i n g . T h i s human c a p i t a l i s i n e f f e c t f r e e to the p r o v i n c e and i s a gain f o r the p r o v i n c i a l economy a t the expense of the sending p r o v i n c e s i n the sense t h a t the r e c e i v i n g p rovince and i t s f i r m s make use o f t h i s t r a i n i n g without having t o i n v e s t i n the f a c i l i t i e s and manpower necessary t o p r o v i d e the t r a i n i n g . The value of t h i s human c a p i t a l i s high. For example, the c o s t of p r o v i d i n g u n i v e r s i t y education to the male household head p o p u l a t i o n moving t o the province i n the 1966-1971 p e r i o d and employed i n key occupations was approximately f i f t y - n i n e m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . L e v e l o f Dependency. I n - m i g r a t i o n to the p r o v i n c e reduces the o v e r a l l dependency r a t i o of the p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n . As shown i n chapter t h r e e , the r e d u c t i o n i s l a r g e l y due to a lower r a t i o of students and those over s i x t y - f i v e i n the in-migrant flow than i n the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . Furthermore, the p r o p o r t i o n of persons over the age of s i x t y - o n e r e c e i v i n g d i r e c t t r a n s f e r payments i s lower f o r i n - m i g r a n t s than f o r i n d i g e n e s ; consequently i n - m i g r a n t s i n t h i s age group r e g u i r e a lower l e v e l o f a s s i s t a n c e from the p r o v i n c i a l government than i n d i g e n e s of the same age. Unemployment. The a n a l y s i s i n chapter f i v e i n d i c a t e d t h a t the unemployment l e v e l among indigenous male household heads was 3 .3%« The unemployed respondents were spread over a v a r i e t y o f occupations with seldom more than one thousand unemployed i n d i g e n e s i n a s p e c i f i c o c cupation. Indigenes with grade ten or 119 l e s s education who moved i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l l y had unemployment r a t e s over 5% while those with s i m i l a r l e v e l s o f education who remained w i t h i n a m u n i c i p a l i t y had unemployment r a t e s below 5%. Among the indigenous unemployed as a whole, and among the unemployed with grade ten or l e s s education, the r a t e of m o b i l i t y was high. F i n a l l y , the number of unemployed i n d i g e n e s aged 16-45 with grade ten or l e s s education who moved i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l l y was much lower than the number of comparable i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n -migrants who were employed., Among o l d e r i n d i g e n e s with t h i s l e v e l of education the number of unemployed was l a r g e r than the number of employed i n t e r - p r o v i n c i a l i n-migrants and the m o b i l i t y r a t e of the unemployed in d i g e n e s was low. Thus, the t h e s i s compares the mean wage incomes, the demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s , and the o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n / unemployment r a t e s o f i n d i v i d u a l s who entered B.C. i n the 1966-1971 p e r i o d with those of l o n g e r term p r o v i n c i a l r e s i d e n t s . The a n a l y s i s not o n l y p r o v i d e s a more comprehensive p i c t u r e of the migrant/non-migrant s i t u a t i o n than has been a v a i l a b l e i n p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s , i t a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h a t the s i t u a t i o n i n an h i s t o r i c a l l y expanding r e g i o n i s d i f f e r e n t from t h a t found i n l a g g i n g areas. 6.3 MAJOR CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN FROH THE STUDY The f i n d i n g s o u t l i n e d i n the previous s e c t i o n l e a d to three major c o n c l u s i o n s r e l a t i n g t o i n - m i g r a t i o n t o B.C. d u r i n g the 1966-1971 p e r i o d : F i r s t , i n terms of the f a c t o r s s t u d i e d , i n - m i g r a t i o n b e n e f i t s the province both by s u p p l y i n g key personnel who import human c a p i t a l p r ovided i n other j u r i s d i c t i o n s and by d e c r e a s i n g 120 the o v e r a l l r a t i o of dependents per income earner i n the p o p u l a t i o n . Yet i n - m i g r a n t s do not occupy a l a r g e r share o f high s k i l l , high paying jobs than i n d i g e n e s . Second, the l e v e l o f unemployment among the indigenous male household heads at the end of a p e r i o d of economic growth i s g e n e r a l l y low. T h i r d , there are o n l y a few groups of the indigenous male household head p o p u l a t i o n t h a t d i d not perform as w e l l as comparable in-migrants i n the expanding economy. Furthermore, these groups i n c l u d e o n l y a s m a l l per centaqe of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n under study. Fourth, among male household heads, there i s no s u b s t a n t i v e support f o r the c o n v e n t i o n a l wisdom that i n - m i g r a n t s f i l l l a r g e numbers of jobs needed by the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . 6.4 WAJOH IMPLICATIONS OF THE STDDY'S FINDINGS The study f i n d i n g s have s e v e r a l i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r planners i n expanding areas who are charged with the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of e i t h e r improving the income or employment performance of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n or d e c i d i n g on the merits of continued economic e x p a n s i o n : 3 F i r s t , the examination of the r e l a t i v e demand f o r s o c i a l s e r v i c e s i n d i c a t e s t h a t a decrease i n the p r o v i n c i a l growth r a t e i s l i k e l y t o reduce the moderating i n f l u e n c e of i n - r a i g r a t i o n on the dependency r a t i o o f , and thus the per c a p i t a c o s t of s u p p l y i n g s o c i a l s e r v i c e s t o , the aggregate p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n . Among i n - m i g r a n t s t h e per centage o f dependents over the age of s i x t y - f i v e (the group r e q u i r i n g p r o v i n c i a l funds f o r 121 pension supplements, r e n t e r s ' g r a n t s , s p e c i a l i z e d housing, and h o s p i t a l care) was found t o be lower than among i n d i g e n e s ; as a r e s u l t , the i n c r e a s e i n per c a p i t a c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g s o c i a l s e r v i c e s may be q u i t e dramatic. Furthermore, the tendency f o r r e t i r e d i n d i v i d u a l s t o move i n response t o the ame n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n an area (Cebula, 1974) suqgests t h a t i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l i n - m i g r a t i o n o f the e l d e r l y w i l l be l e s s r e s p o n s i v e to lower r a t e s of p r o v i n c i a l economic expansion than younger co h o r t s . Conseguently, the dependency r a t i o among in - m i g r a n t s i s l i k e l y t o be high e r during p e r i o d s o f slow growth than d u r i n g the 1966-1971 p e r i o d . The importance o f the flow of working age i n -migrants w i l l i n c r e a s e as the 'baby boom' co h o r t reaches r e t i r e m e n t age a f t e r the year two thousand. Second, even i f a l l the indigenous unemployed were taken up p r i o r t o the f i l l i n g o f va c a n c i e s by i n - m i g r a n t s , there would have been a requirement, over the 1966-1971 p e r i o d , f o r i n -migrants i n both p r o f e s s i o n a l and low s k i l l occupations. T h i r d , the high r a t e o f m o b i l i t y among the indigenous unemployed i n d i c a t e s t h a t a r e s i s t a n c e t o migr a t i o n , o f t e n i d e n t i f i e d as a problem i n l a g g i n g r e g i o n s (see Hansen, 1974), i s not a major b a r r i e r t o employment i n the B.C. c o n t e x t . Fourth, the low l e v e l o f education and thus the hig h p r o b a b i l i t y o f f u n c t i o n a l i l l i t e r a c y * amonq the indigenous subgroup with the h i g h e s t unemployment r a t e i n d i c a t e s they are very hard t o reach, a f a c t o r which must be taken i n t o account by any re m e d i a l programs which may be proposed. F i f t h , t he l a r g e numbers of in-migrants with grade ten or l e s s e d u c a t i o n who are employed a t the same time comparably educated i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l migrants have unemployment r a t e s over 122 5% i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e unemployment r a t e o f these i n d i g e n e s may be reduced by f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e i r movement i n t o p o s i t i o n s t h a t are c r e a t e d or come vacant over the census p e r i o d . F i n a l l y , any r e m e d i a l programs designed to i n c r e a s e the employment r a t e s and incomes of subgroups of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n must not i n t e r f e r e with the i n - m i g r a t i o n of key personnel r e g u i r e d to manage the expansion of o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n the lower s k i l l occupations. In a d d i t i o n , the s m a l l per centages of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n whose performance may need to be improved i n d i c a t e s t h a t r e m e d i a l programs should take advantage of vacancy ch a i n s (the chain o f job s w i t c h i n g t h a t occurs a f t e r a vacancy a r i s e s — s e e S h i t e , 1970) r a t h e r than o n l y attempting to p l a c e the unemployed or d i r e c t l y reach i n d i v i d u a l s who are p o o r l y paid.« 6.4 SUMMARY The l a c k of comprehensive s t u d i e s of migrants and non-migrants i n a r e g i o n with an expanding economy d i c t a t e d t h a t the t h e s i s focus on the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c o n d i t i o n s t h a t r e q u i r e some form of p o l i c y response r a t h e r than on the e v a l u a t i o n of the d i f f i c i e n c i e s of e x i s t i n g programs. In t h i s c o n t e x t m i g r a t i o n was found to g e n e r a l l y be b e n e f i c i a l t o the p r o v i n c e . * The sub-groups of the indigenous male househould head p o p u l a t i o n who have unemployment r a t e s over f i v e per cent and mean incomes below those of comparable in-migrants were found t o i n c l u d e o n l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . These i n d i g e n e s are g e n e r a l l y poorly educated but mobile. Recommendations on the 123 type of actions necessary to improve the relative performance of these indigenes would reguire further research to assess the effectiveness of existing programs and to discover i f actions suggested by an analysis during a period of growth (1966-1971) are appropriate in a period of relative stagnation (1976-1978). FOOTNOTES Note that these f i n d i n g s do not c o n f l i c t with past s t u d i e s . For example, the migrant incomes, although lower than those of i n d i g e n e s , may s t i l l be l a r g e r than t h e i r incomes at the o r i g i n . At the same time, the higher income of indigenes may be the outcome of the tendency f o r b e t t e r q u a l i f i e d i n d i v i d u a l s t o remain i n an area i n which there was recent expansion (Gray, 1969). The a v a i l a b i l i t y of these i n d i v i d u a l s i n the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n would tend to reduce the h i g h e r mean incomes of i n d i g e n e s apparent when groups i n l a g g i n g r e g ions are compared as a whole r a t h e r than broken down i n t o age/education s p e c i f i c sub-groups. At another l e v e l , i n t e r - n a t i o n a l i n - m i g r a n t s , as i n d i v i d u a l s , have lower incomes than a l l groups of people who r e s i d e d i n Canada i n 196 6. Thus i f immigrants appear t o have more wealth (home ownership, etc) than i n d i g e n e s , i t would appear to a r i s e from higher non-head labour f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s (suggested by p r o p o r t i o n of independent non-heads i n Table 3.5.3), d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s , a h i g h e r l e v e l of i n i t i a l wealth, or l o n g term incomes s u b s t a n t i a l l y d i f f e r e n t from s h o r t term incomes. Of these these employed in - m i g r a n t s , 9500 are i n the key occupations. Such p o l i c i e s may be r e q u i r e d i f one of the g o a l s of the p r o v i n c i a l government i s to use growth as a means of maximizing the income l e v e l s and employment r a t e s of the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n . From another p e r s p e c t i v e , higher wage and employment r a t e s among indigenes may be viewed as a form of i n f o r m a l compensation to the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n f o r negative e x t e r n a l i t i e s commonly a s s o c i a t e d with growth (such as i n c r e a s e d c o n g e s t i o n , l o c a l i n f l a t i o n , environmental d e g r a d a t i o n , e s c a l a t i n g l a n d v a l u e s , * p s y c h o - s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n s , and, i n many cases, a r e d u c t i o n i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y of e x i s t i n g community s e r v i c e s (see, as examples, C o l l i s o n , — ; Brucker, Smith, and Turner, 1972; Hoover, 1975; Krebs, 1975; S h i e l d , 1975; - W i l l i s , 1974)) . •Note: The c o s t of replacement housinq makes i t d i f f i c u l t f o r most groups of i n d i q e n e s to b e n e f i t from r i s i n q land v a l u e s and, u n l e s s land value i n c r e a s e s are accompanied by r e d u c t i o n s i n tax m i l l r a t e s , the c o s t of h o l d i n g a p r o p e r t y w i l l i n c r e a s e . Thus, e s c a l a t i n g land p r i c e s tend to b e n e f i t only i n d i g e n e s who have more than one p a r c e l of p r o p e r t y , h o l d r e n t a l accomodation t h a t i s not a f f e c t e d by r e n t c o n t r o l , l e a v e the expanding r e g i o n , or are absentee owners. The VRB (1976) r e p o r t i n d i c a t e d that approximately 301 of the a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n f a l l s i n t o the • f u n c t i o n a l l y i l l i t e r a t e ' c a t e g ory. I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o comprehend the gap t h a t separates these groups from b e t t e r educated segments of the p o p u l a t i o n . Perhaps the d i f f e r e n c e can be i l l u s t r a t e d by comparing the way i n which the two p o p u l a t i o n s became aware of a statewide p o l i o v a c c i n a t i o n program i n an American c i t y (Anderson, 1973); 811 o f higher income f a m i l i e s l e a r n e d of the program through r e a d i n g the newspaper while 66U of the lower c l a s s f a m i l i e s became aware of i t through the s c h o o l s and mass media other than newspapers. The vacancy c h a i n concept (White, 1970) r e c o g n i z e s t h a t most jobs have an e x i s t e n c e which i s independent of the person f i l l i n g i t . , Thus, i f a vacant job i s c r e a t e d or a vacancy a r i s e s i n an e x i s t i n g job (through the death, r e t i r e m e n t , or withdrawl from the labour f o r c e of the encumbent), the movement of an employed person t o f i l l the vacancy w i l l l e a v e another job vacant. A ' c h a i n ' of v acancies i s c r e a t e d t h a t ends when a person who i s not employed f i l l s a vacancy. The advantage of a l l o w i n g or encouraging a vacancy c h a i n r a t h e r than t r y i n g t o f i l l a vacancy d i r e c t l y with an unemployed person i s that the c h a i n may move down the o c c u p a t i o n a l h i e r a r c h y or move s p a t i a l l y so t h a t i t can be f i l l e d by unemployed i n d i g e n e s with low l e v e l s of e d u c a t i o n or a r e l u c t a n c e t o move ( o l d e r i n d i v i d u a l s ) . When a p o s i t i o n i s f i l l e d by an in-migrant d i r e c t l y e n t e r i n g the o r i g i n a l vacancy, a c h a i n w i l l not develop i n B.C. C u r r e n t l y Manpower O f f i c e s are not s e t up to a i d employed i n d i v i d u a l s who are seeking other employment. That i s , they a r e l o c a t e d c e n t r a l l y i n urban d i s t r i c t s and only i n the l a r g e r c e n t r e s of non-urban r e g i o n s ; i n a d d i t i o n , they are only open d u r i n g business hours and r e g u i r e j o b seekers to go to the c e n t r e s — t h u s d i s c r i m i n a t i n g a g a i n s t workers l o o k i n g f o r a l t e r n a t e employment. At the same time, the c e n t r e s c o n c e n t r a t e on f i n d i n g employment f o r i n d i v i d u a l s c o l l e c t i n g unemployment i n s u r a n c e (Manpower Information S e r v i c e s , P e r s o n a l Communication, 1977) . 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