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Cottaging and the cost of travel 1977

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COTTAGING AND THE COST OF TRAVEL by GREG ALAN ROWE B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS THE SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1977 CQ\ Greg Alan Rowe i n t o the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumb ia , I a g ree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s tudy . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i thou t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f Community and Regional Planning The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 Date A p r i l 2 9 ; 1 9 7 7 i i ABSTRACT Many North American urban d w e l l e r s f i n d l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g t o be an a t t r a c t i v e a c t i v i t y . On a t y p i c a l summer weekend i n most N o r t h American c i t i e s l a r g e numbers o f c o t t a g e r s make a u t o m o b i l e t r i p s r a n g i n g i n l e n g t h from o n l y a few m i l e s to s e v e r a l hundred m i l e s i n o r d e r t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s . Many c o t t a g e r s from the G r e a t e r Vancouver a r e a t r a v e l g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do c o t t a g e r s from o t h e r l a r g e c i t i e s . A l a r g e p o r t i o n o f t h e s e d i s t a n t c o t t a g e a r e a s were d e v e l o p e d i n t h e n i n e t e e n s i x t i e s and e a r l y s e v e n t i e s when p e r s o n a l t r a n s p o r - t a t i o n was v e r y i n e x p e n s i v e . The mid n i n e t e e n s e v e n t i e s have been the scene o f s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n energy c o s t s w i t h subsequent r i s e s i n the c o s t o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . When the p o s s i b i l i t y o f f u r t h e r energy p r i c e i n c r e a s e s i s c o n s i d e r e d i t appears t h a t t h e r e i s a d i s t i n c t p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h e s e d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s e x p e r i e n c i n g a d r a s t i c d e c l i n e i n use. T h i s would have a number o f i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r p l a n n e r s i n B r i t i s h Columbia w i t h one o f the most i m p o r t a n t b e i n g the i n c r e a s e i n demand f o r c o t t a g i n g ( o r s i m i l a r a c t i v i t i e s ) c l o s e t o Vancouver. In o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e the magnitude o f the r e s p o n s e o f c o t t a g e r s t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t i n c r e a s e s q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were m a i l e d t o f o u r d i f f e r e n t groups o f c o t t a g e r s who r e s i d e d i n G r e a t e r Vancouver. Three o f t h e s e groups c o n s i s t e d o f c o t t a g e r s who owned c o t t a g e s on the B r i t i s h Columbia m a i n l a n d a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from Vancouver ( t h e c o t t a g e s o f the f i r s t group were l o c a t e d about s e v e n t y m i l e s from Vancouver w h i l e i i i the t h i r d group's c o t t a g e s were l o c a t e d about 330 m i l e s from V a n c o u v e r ) . The f o u r t h group c o n s i s t e d o f Vancouver c o t t a g e r s who owned c o t t a g e s on Vancouver I s l a n d . The d a t a c o l l e c t e d measured r e s p o n s e s t o r e c e n t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , r e s p o n s e s t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s , and c o t t a g e r s ' a n t i c i p a t e d r e s p o n s e s t o f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . I t was found t h a t c o t t a g e r s had responded t o both the f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s and g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i t h r e d u c t i o n s i n the use o f t h e i r c o t t a g e . The d a t a was a l s o used t o e s t i m a t e the e f f e c t o f f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g e use. The s t u d y r e v e a l s t h a t the c o s t s o f r e a c h i n g d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s i s p r e s e n t l y a t a l e v e l such t h a t f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s c o u l d s e v e r e l y c u r t a i l t h e use o f t h e s e c o t t a g e s . These f i n d i n g s can be c o n s i d e r e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h e s t i m a t e d f u t u r e t r e n d s f o r energy p r i c e s t o d e t e r m i n e the magnitude o f the e f f e c t o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s on c o t t a g i n g a t a g i v e n time. T h i s r e s u l t c o u l d then be used t o p l a n f o r a l t e r n a t i v e o p p o r t u n i t i e s c l o s e r t o Vancouver. i v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER Page ONE INTRODUCTION AND ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY 1 Background 1 C o t t a g i n g and the Au t o m o b i l e 4 The Energy S i t u a t i o n 5 Purpose o f t h i s Study 11 The Need f o r a Study o f t h i s Nature 13 Scope o f t h e Study 15 L i t e r a t u r e Review 16 Hypotheses 2 0 Methodology 21 TWO DESCRIPTION OF INFORMATION COLLECTED AND ANALYSIS OF DATA 23 Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Returns 28 Responses o f the C o t t a g e r s t o . P a s t G a s o l i n e . P r i c e . , I n c r e a s e s 30 Responses o f Vancouver I s l a n d C o t t a g e r s t o F e r r y Fare I n c r e a s e s 33 C o t t a g e r s A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e „ P r i c e I n c r e a s e s 40 G a s o l i n e C o s t s i n R e l a t i o n t o Ot h e r C o s t s o f C o t t a g i n g 57 A n a l y s i s o f P r o f i l e Data 59 R e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h i s Survey t o the E n t i r e Vancouver C o t t a g e F i e l d gg THREE CONCLUSIONS 72 G a s o l i n e P r i c e s and R e d u c t i o n i n Use o f C o t t a g e s . . 73 Income and L o c a t i o n o f C o t t a g e 76 T r a v e l Time and T r a v e l C o s t 77 A d d i t i o n a l Comments 78 FOUR THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE STUDY TO REGIONAL PLANNING . . 82 I n d i r e c t E f f e c t s o f G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s . . . . 82 C o t t a g i n g and P l a n n i n g 83 Summary 86 BIBLIOGRAPHY 89 V Page APPENDIX Map o f C o t t a g e Area L o c a t i o n s 92 C a l c u l a t i o n s o f T r a v e l C o s t s f o r M a i n l a n d and Vancouver I s l a n d C o t t a g e r s 93 Q u e s t i o n n a i r e 94 C o v e r i n g L e t t e r t o M a i n l a n d C o t t a g e r s 94 C o v e r i n g L e t t e r t o Vancouver I s l a n d C o t t a g e r s . . . . 95 Follow-up L e t t e r 96 Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Sent t o M a i n l a n d C o t t a g e r s . . . . . . . (330 M i l e Subgroup Q u e s t i o n n a i r e * 97 Q u e s t i o n n a i r e S e n t t o Vancouver I s l a n d C o t t a g e r s . . . 100 v i LIST OF TABLES T a b l e Page 1 Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Returns 29 2 T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (70 M i l e Subgroup) 31 3 T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup) 31. 4 T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup) 32 5 T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (70 M i l e Subgroup) 34 6 T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup) 34 7 T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup) 35 8 T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r F e r r y Fare I n c r e a s e s (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup) 36 9 T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r F e r r y Fare I n c r e a s e s (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup) 35 10 P r i c e E l a s t i c i t y o f Demand f o r T r i p s to the C o t t a g e . 38 11 Summary o f the Weather f o r the Summer o f 1976 . . . . 41 12 T o t a l Annual Number o f Weeks o f V a c a t i o n Spent a t t h e C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r F e r r y Fare I n c r e a s e s (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup) 42 13 A n t i c i p a t e d Responses to F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e s (240 M i l e Subsample) 44 v i i T a b l e Page 14 A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e s (330 M i l e Subgroup) . 15 Responses t o the Idea o f F u t u r e G a s o l i n e R a t i o n i n g ^ (70 M i l e Subgroup) . 16 Responses t o the Idea o f F u t u r e G a s o l i n e R a t i o n i n g (240 M i l e Subgroup) 52 17 Responses t o the Idea o f F u t u r e G a s o l i n e R a t i o n i n g (330 M i l e Subgroup) 53 18 D e t a i l s About the T r i p t o the C o t t a g e 54 19 C u r r e n t Market V a l u e o f C o t t a g e s as E s t i m a t e d by the Owners .. '56 20 G a s o l i n e C o s t s and C o t t a g e V a l u e s 58 21 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Annual F a m i l y Income by Subgroup . . . . 60 22 F a m i l y Income and Response t o I n c r e a s e d F e r r y F a r e s . . 63 23 F a m i l y Income and T o t a l Number o f T r i p s t o the C o t t a g e 64 24 F a m i l y Income and Response t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s 64 25 Length o f Ownership o f the C o t t a g e and Response t o F e r r y Fare I n c r e a s e s 66 26 Length o f Ownership o f the C o t t a g e and Responses t o 66 G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s 27 Reasons f o r Going t o t h e C o t t a g e 67 28 A c t i v i t i e s Engaged i n P r i o r t o C o t t a g i n g .68 29 R e c r e a t i o n a l Accommodation Owned by R e s i d e n t s o f G r e a t e r Vancouver - L o c a t i o n and D i s t a n c e from Vancouver .70 30 Length o f Ownership o f C o t t a g e 72 v i i i LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e Page 1 O i l i n Canada - Demand and A v a i l a b i l i t y . . . . . . . 8 2 P a s t Response and A n t i c i p a t e d F u t u r e Responses t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup) . . . . . 45 3 P a s t Response and A n t i c i p a t e d F u t u r e Responses t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup) . . . . . 46 4 P a s t Response t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (70 M i l e Subgroup) 47 5 Response o f Vancouver I s l a n d and M a i n l a n d C o t t a g e r s t o I n c r e a s e d T r a v e l C o s t s (Weekends) 49 6 Response o f Vancouver I s l a n d and M a i n l a n d C o t t a g e r s t o I n c r e a s e d T r a v e l C o s t s ( H o l i d a y Weekends) 50 7 E s t i m a t e d Response to F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup) 80 8 E s t i m a t e d Response t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup) 8JT 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION AND ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY Background C o t t a g i n g i s a p o p u l a r r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y i n p r e s e n t day North American s o c i e t y . A g e n e r a l d e f i n i t i o n o f c o t t a g i n g i s the use o f a second home f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s . Most c o t t a g i n g a c t i v i t y i s water o r i e n t e d w i t h the o n l y major e x c e p t i o n b e i n g s k i c a b i n s . In B r i t i s h Columbia we have the f u r t h e r breakdown between s e a - s i d e c o t t a g e s and c o t - tages o r i e n t e d toward b o d i e s o f f r e s h water ( p r i m a r i l y l a k e s ) . T h i s t h e s i s w i l l be d i r e c t e d towards tho s e c o t t a g e s l o c a t e d near f r e s h w a t e r l a k e s . C o t t a g i n g i n some form o r a n o t h e r has been a p a r t o f man's l i f e f o r c e n t u r i e s . In f a c t the use o f summer v i l l a s f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l purposes was a v e r y p o p u l a r p u r s u i t o f the w e a l t h y p e o p l e o f a n c i e n t Rome. ( P l o t n i k o f f , 1969). T h i s phenomena has c a r r i e d on i n v a r i o u s s o c i e t i e s which have e x i s t e d s i n c e the time o f the Romans. S i z e a b l e v a c a t i o n home communities a r o s e i n the A d i r o n d a c k a r e a o f New York S t a t e i n the 1800's. (Payne, Gannon, and I r l a n d , 1975) By the 1920's a u t o m o b i l e s had come i n t o g e n e r a l use, the work week had s h o r t e n e d , and incomes had r i s e n . More peopl e were a b l e t o escape the crowded c i t i e s on weekends w i t h the more a f f l u e n t t r a v e l l i n g to second homes c l o s e t o m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s . (Payne e t . a l . , 1975). I t was not u n t i l the f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s t h a t c o t t a g i n g began t o e x p e r i e n c e the tremendous growth r a t e s which we know to d a y . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d a f a i r l y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f the North American p o p u l a t i o n began 2 t o emerge as a m i d d l e and upper m i d d l e c l a s s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by r e l a t i v e l y h i g h incomes and q u i t e l a r g e amounts o f l e i s u r e t i m e . These y e a r s a l s o w i t n e s s e d the s t a r t o f mass m e r c h a n d i z i n g o f r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d . ( R a g a t z , 1974, p. 17) Roads and a u t o m o b i l e s a l s o improved d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d which opened up more d i s t a n t a r e a s t o c o t t a g i n g . While the p r i v e l e g e o f owning a second home f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l purposes i s s t i l l l i m i t e d t o m i d d l e and upper c l a s s North Americans the l a s t t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s have seen the p r o p o r t i o n o f our p o p u l a t i o n t o whom c o t t a g e ownership i s a r e a l pos- s i b i l i t y r i s e d r a m a t i c a l l y . T h e r e a r e many r e a s o n s f o r the c u r r e n t g r e a t i n t e r e s t i n c o t - t a g i n g . The p i o n e e r h e r i t a g e i s s t r o n g i n North America and w i t h e v e r i n c r e a s i n g numbers o f p e o p l e l i v i n g i n l a r g e urban c e n t r e s a s t r o n g d e s i r e t o g e t out i n t o more n a t u r a l s u r r o u n d i n g s has d e v e l o p e d . V a r i o u s o u t d o o r s p o r t s such as b o a t i n g and water s k i i n g which a r e s t r o n g l y l i n k e d t o c o t t a g i n g have become v e r y p o p u l a r i n the l a s t two decades (due o f c o u r s e t o the development o f the o u t b o a r d m o t o r ) . Once under- way the t r e n d towards c o t t a g i n g became s e l f r e i n f o r c i n g s i n c e the c o t t a g e emerged as a s t a t u s symbol. ( R a g a t z , 1969, p. 50) T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e among the m i d d l e c l a s s o f our s o c i e t y who have o n l y r e c e n t l y been a b l e t o j o i n the ranks o f c o t t a g e owners. In Canada l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g f i r s t became p o p u l a r i n the E a s t w i t h the r e s i d e n t s o f T o r o n t o and M o n t r e a l c o l o n i z i n g the l a k e a r e a s n o r t h o f t h e s e two c i t i e s . Many o f t h e s e a r e a s (such as the Muskokas) were d e v e l o p e d f o r t h i s purpose i n the f i r s t h a l f o f the t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y . C o t t a g i n g has s p r e a d t o many more l a k e a r e a s i n E a s t e r n Canada s i n c e t h a t time. Due t o the l a r g e numbers o f l a k e s i n E a s t e r n 3 Canada c o t t a g e r s from even the l a r g e s t c i t i e s do not have t o t r a v e l e x c e p t i o n a l l y g r e a t d i s t a n c e s t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s . In f a c t a s t u d y o f c o t t a g e r s from the M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o a r e a showed t h a t the average d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d t o t h e i r c o t t a g e s was 135 m i l e s w i t h the range b e i n g from s i x t y t o two hundred m i l e s . (Hodge, 1970) (The p o p u l a t i o n range would be much g r e a t e r than t h i s s i n c e the sample f o r t h i s s t u d y was v e r y s m a l l , N=18 c o t t a g e r s . ) In B r i t i s h Columbia the s i t u a t i o n i s somewhat d i f f e r e n t than i t i s i n E a s t e r n Canada. A c u r s o r y e x a m i n a t i o n o f a map o f B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l show t h a t t h e r e a r e not n e a r l y as many l a k e s i n t h i s p r o v i n c e as t h e r e a r e i n E a s t e r n Canada. T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e w i t h r e g a r d t o the southwest c o r n e r o f the p r o v i n c e . Due t o the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a l t e r - n a t i v e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s Vancouver c o t t a g e r s a r e n o t as dependent upon l a k e s as a r e E a s t e r n C a n a d i a n s . However many V a n c o u v e r i t e s have been brought up i n E a s t e r n Canada and t o t h o s e p e o p l e the term c o t t a g e i s a l m o s t synonymous w i t h l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e . Thus we f i n d t h a t many V a n c o u v e r i t e s d r i v e l o n g d i s t a n c e s t o r e a c h l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e s . In f a c t a l m o s t twenty p e r c e n t o f Vancouver c o t t a g e r s t r a v e l about t h r e e hundred m i l e s (one way d i s t a n c e ) t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s . ( T a y l o r , 1972) In g e n e r a l c o t t a g i n g a c t i v i t y o r i g i n a t i n g i n the Vancouver urban f i e l d seems t o be much more d i v e r s e , both i n terms o f i t s r e c - r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e o r i e n t a t i o n and i n terms o f d i s t a n c e from permanent r e s i d e n c e t o c o t t a g e than i s the case i n E a s t e r n Canada. There a r e many reaso n s f o r t h i s but the major ones a r e u n d o u b t e d l y r e l a t e d t o the 4 g r e a t v a r i e t y o f r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s which e x i s t i n B r i t i s h Columbia. W i t h i n t h r e e hundred m i l e s o f Vancouver t he p r o s p e c t i v e c o t t a g e r can choose between s e a s i d e , mountain, o r l a k e s h o r e l o c a t i o n s . A n o t h e r impor- t a n t v a r i a b l e i n t h i s r e s p e c t i s c l i m a t e . F or example n e a r l y a l l t o u r i s t a d v e r t i s e m e n t s f o r the Okanagan o r South C a r i b o o a r e a s s t r e s s the sunny c l i m a t e s o f thos e a r e a s . I t does seem t h a t many V a c o u v e r i t e s a r e w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l the e x t r a d i s t a n c e t o t h e s e a r e a s i n o r d e r t o r e l a x i n a warm, b r i g h t c l i m a t e . C o t t a g i n g and the Au t o m o b i l e A t t he p r e s e n t time t he c o t t a g e and the a u t o m o b i l e a r e a l m o s t i n s e p e r a b l e s i n c e , f o r the m a j o r i t y o f c o t t a g e owners, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o the c o t t a g e i s dependant on the f a m i l y c a r . P u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e a r e a s has never been v e r y w i d e s p r e a d i n B r i t i s h Columbia but a t one time was q u i t e i m p o r t a n t i n E a s t e r n Canada. (Jaakson 1974, p. 220) Even i n E a s t e r n Canada p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e s i s a t h i n g o f the p a s t w i t h one hundred p e r c e n t o f the c o t t a g e r s i n a T o r o n t o c o t t a g e r s u r v e y i n d i c a t i n g t h a t they t r a v e l l e d by a u t o m o b i l e a l t h o u g h a l t e r n a t i v e modes o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n were u s u a l l y a v a i l a b l e . (Hodge, 1970, p. 5) The a u t o m o b i l e i s i d e a l l y s u i t e d f o r home t o c o t t a g e t r a v e l . I t p r o v i d e s a v e r y f l e x i b l e mode o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a t a moderate p r i c e . The a u t o m o b i l e a l s o a l l o w s the c o t t a g e r freedom o f movement around the v i c i n i t y o f h i s c o t t a g e w h i l e he i s t h e r e . F or t h o s e c o t t a g e r s who wish t o t r a n s p o r t b u l k y and heavy r e c r e a t i o n a l equipment such as boats o r snowmobiles a u t o m o b i l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l . When peopl e l e a v e t h e i r homes i n urban a r e a s to go t o t h e i r 5 c o t t a g e s they g e n e r a l l y wish t o go t o an a r e a which i s much l e s s d e n s e l y p o p u l a t e d than i s the c i t y from which they came. T h e r e f o r e most c o t t a g e a r e a s a r e v e r y s p r e a d out which makes the a u t o m o b i l e even more o f a n e c e s s i t y . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f a r e a s d e v e l o p e d i n the f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s . Some o f the o l d e r c o t t a g e a r e a s such as C u l t u s Lake have e v o l v e d i n a v e r y compact n a t u r e . T h i s i s a l s o t r u e o f some o f the developments o f the l a s t few y e a r s such as B l o c k B r o t h e r s 108 M i l e R e c r e a t i o n a l Ranch. A s i d e from t h e s e and comparable e x c e p t i o n s most t y p i c a l l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e a r e a s i n B r i t i s h Columbia a r e not p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l s u i t e d t o a c c e s s v i a p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . I t can be s a f e l y s a i d t h a t w i t h o u t the cheap, e f f i c i e n t a u t o m o b i l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n which we p r e s e n t l y e n j o y i n B r i t i s h Columbia c o t t a g i n g would not have d e v e l o p e d to n e a r l y t he degree which i t has. The Energy S i t u a t i o n The energy c r i s i s can be taken as meaning a s i t u a t i o n i n which demand f o r energy w i l l exceed s u p p l y a t r e a s o n a b l e p r i c e s . ( A l t h o u g h the i n c l u s i o n o f the word " r e a s o n a b l e " does reduce the o b j e c t i v e n e s s o f the d e f i n i t i o n o f the energy c r i s i s i t i s n e c e s s a r y s i n c e s u p p l y and demand w i l l be equal i n a s i t u a t i o n o f extreme s c a r c i t y i f p r i c e s a r e s e t h i g h enough.) When t h i s o c c u r s one o f the immediate and v i s i b l e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s w i l l be a s h o r t a g e o f g a s o l i n e f o r p e r s o n a l t r a n s p o r - t a t i o n . The i n t r o d u c t i o n t o the energy c r i s i s o c c u r r e d i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s and i n Western Europe i n the f a l l o f 1973 d u r i n g the Arab o i l embargo. Some g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g o c c u r r e d i n Europe a t t h i s time but 6 the U n i t e d S t a t e s weathered t he storm w i t h a p o l i c y o f " c o n t r o l l e d c h a o s " i n which l o n g l i n e u p s and i r r e g u l a r gas s t a t i o n hours d i s c o u r a g e d many m o t o r i s t s . ( C a r t e r , 1974) There was a d e f i n i t e r e d u c t i o n i n g a s o l i n e consumption d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d and i t i s c e r t a i n t h a t many u n n e c e s s a r y a u t o m o b i l e t r i p s were e l i m i n a t e d . The Arab o i l embargo took p l a c e d u r i n g the w i n t e r and t h e r e f o r e the e f f e c t on c o t t a g e use was p r o b a b l y s l i g h t . There was p r o b a b l y a s u b s t a n t i a l e f f e c t on the use o f s k i a r e a s but t h e r e do not appear t o be any r e p o r t s on t h i s a s p e c t o f the reduced o i l i m p o r t s . While the Arab o i l embargo was an " a r t i f i c i a l " energy c r i s i s , i t c o u l d prove t o be an a c c u r a t e f o r e w a r n i n g o f the f u t u r e as demand e s c a - l a t e s and s u p p l i e s d w i n d l e . While i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o p r e d i c t the e x a c t energy s i t u a t i o n w i t h which we w i l l be f a c e d i n f i v e , t e n , o r twenty y e a r s some g e n e r a l comments can be made about t he f u t u r e . Our demand f o r energy i n g e n e r a l and g a s o l i n e i n p a r t i c u l a r has c o n t i n u e d t o grow s i n c e 1973 and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o do so b a r r i n g r a d i c a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . A t t h i s p r e s e n t r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n demand i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t r e a l s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s w i l l o c c u r i n the ne x t decade o r two. I f and when t h i s does happen e i t h e r r a t i o n i n g o r d r a s t i c p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o r both w i l l t a k e p l a c e . B e f o r e a major c r i s i s comes about i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e r e w i l l be more o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s by p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s i n r e s - ponse t o r i s i n g demand and s h r i n k i n g s u p p l i e s . In Vancouver from 1974 t o 1976 g a s o l i n e p r i c e s have r i s e n from about f i f t y - f i v e c e n t s p er g a l l o n t o about e i g h t y - f i v e c e n t s per g a l l o n . (These f i g u r e s a r e averages o f low and h i g h p r i c e s f o r r e g u l a r g a s o l i n e i n t h e G r e a t e r Vancouver a r e a . ) (B.C. Energy Commission, 1975, p. 15) 7 T h i s i s an a v e r a g e p r i c e r i s e o f about t e n p e r c e n t p e r y e a r when p r i c e s are d e f l a t e d w i t h the consumer p r i c e index o f Canada. ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1976) (Between J a n u a r y , 1974 and June, 1976 the Consumer P r i c e Index r o s e about 28 p e r c e n t whereas g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r o s e about 54 p e r c e n t . T h i s e q u a l s an approximate r e a l i n c r e a s e i n g a s o l i n e p r i c e s o f 25 p e r - c e n t which t r a n s l a t e s t o a r e a l r a t e o f i n c r e a s e o f about 10 p e r c e n t per y e a r . ) I f t h i s r a t e c o n t i n u e s a verage per g a l l o n p r i c e s would be about $1.25 i n 1981 and $1.70 i n 1986 ( i n 1976 d o l l a r s ) . The p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n has a l s o seen i n c r e a s e d government t a x e s on g a s o l i n e which do c o n t r i b u t e s u b s t a n t i a l l y t o the r a t h e r h i g h r a t e s o f p r i c e i n c r e a s e mentioned. However t h i s does not s e r i o u s l y r e duce the v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e f i g u r e s s i n c e i f the Canadian government had a l l o w e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e s t o i n c r e a s e f r e e l y a t the r a t e d i c t a t e d by w o r l d o i l p r i c e s the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e i n Canada would have been a t l e a s t as much i f not more than what i t was w i t h the i m p o s i t i o n o f the e x t r a t a x e s . The c e n t r a l p o i n t i n the Canadian o i l s i t u a t i o n i s t h a t i n 1975 Canada became a n e t i m p o r t e r o f o i l i n s t e a d o f a n e t e x p o r t e r as has been the case i n the p a s t . ( E n e r g y , Mines, and R e s o u r c e s , 1976, p. 24) As F i g u r e #1 shows t h i s t r e n d w i l l c o n t i n u e i n t o the f u t u r e . (Energy, Mines, and R e s o u r c e s , 1976, p. 75) Thus i n the l o n g run Canada has l i t t l e c h o i c e but t o pay the i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r i c e f o r o i l . There a r e some g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s which a r e p r e s e n t l y planned f o r Canada and thus a r e n e a r l y c e r t a i n to o c c u r . The D e p a r t - ment o f Energy, Mines, and Resources i n t h e i r " N a t i o n a l Energy FIGURE #1 Domestic demand and availability: oil (1970-1990; low-price scenario) 3000-1 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 YEARS Domestic demand and availability: oil (1970-1990; high-price scenario) 3 000 n 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78"79 8(3 81 82'83 84 6586 87 88 89 90 YEARS 9 Strategy" state an objective of moving domestic o i l prices toward inter- national levels within the next few years. Canadian domestic o i l prices are currently $8.00/barrel with international prices being about $13/ barrel (delivered to Eastern Canada). (Energy, Mines, and Resources, 1976). This impending domestic crude price increase obviously implies increased gasoline prices for Canadians. In fact the entire amount of this increase will be f e l t in real terms since O.P.E.C. will probably continue to raise the world price of o i l at a rate sufficient to keep up with inflation in Western countries. This 60 percent increase in the price of crude o i l will result in a smaller percentage increase in gasoline costs (due to constant costs such as refining, distribution, taxes, etc.,) but one that is substantial. In fact this increase in the price of crude o i l will add about 14<f per gallon to the cost of gasoline since about 35 Imperial gallons of gasoline can be produced from one barrel of petroleum. Aside from this upward adjustment in Canadian domestic prices and possible increased gasoline taxes (to reduce demand and therefore alleviate balance of payments problems caused by massive imports of expensive o i l ) some observers believe that o i l prices will be relatively stable for the next few years. For example: We subscribe to the view that world o i l prices will continue to increase, but at moderated rates, probably no greater than the general rate of inflation being experienced by western indus- tr i a l i z e d nations. Significantly higher rates are not likely because the world o i l price is already at the limit where further increases would only serve to promote the drive for energy indepen- dence, hasten the search for new energy sources, and render economic those sources previously deemed uneconomic. Since these effects would only serve to erode the earnings potential of O.P.E.C. oi l reserves, attempts by the cartel to increase o i l prices too rapidly would not be in i t ' s own self interest." (B.C. Energy Commission, April, 1976) 10 Thus i n terms o f m a x i m i z i n g s h o r t term revenue f o r o i l p r o d u c i n g coun- t r i e s p e t r o l e u m p r i c e s a r e p r o b a b l y a l r e a d y near o p t i m a l l e v e l s . How- ever i n the f u t u r e as demand i n c r e a s e s , and s u p p l i e s d w i n d l e i t may be i n the i n t e r e s t o f o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s t o s e t much h i g h e r r e a l p r i c e s f o r t h e i r p e t r o l e u m . I t does seem t h a t the t r e n d o f r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g g a s o l i n e p r i c e s o f the l a s t t h r e e y e a r s (1974-1977) w i l l slow down t o some e x t e n t between now and 1980 but the 1980 1s may w e l l see an i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o r r a t i o n i n g . To put t h e s e comments i n p e r s p e c t i v e i t s h o u l d be noted t h a t g a s o l i n e p r e s e n t l y c o s t s over $2.00 per g a l l o n i n many European c o u n t r i e s . Keeping i n mind the s t r o n g l i n k between c o t t a g i n g and the a u t o m o b i l e i t does seem l i k e l y t h a t the phenomena o f r a p i d growth o f c o t t a g i n g i n the f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s may be a l t e r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y by energy r e s t r i c t i o n s . In t h e i r r e p o r t " S u b d i v i d i n g Rural A m e r i c a " the American S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s c i t e s the energy c r i s i s o f 1973 as the major r e a s o n f o r the sharp r e d u c t i o n i n r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d s a l e s which had p r e v i o u s l y been booming. (American S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , 1976) R e i n e r J a c k s o n views the s i t u a t i o n t h i s way: I t i s q u i t e l i k e l y , however, t h a t a t l e a s t f o r some f a m i l i e s , where the expense o f m a i n t a i n i n g a c o t t a g e a l r e a d y s t r a i n s the budget, the p r o s p e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g l y more e x p e n s i v e p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e t r a v e l may r e s u l t i n c h a n g i n g r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t y s t y l e s . These changes may be from c o t t a g e use t o more i n t e n s i v e use o f p u b l i c parks and o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s c l o s e t o urban c e n t r e s . P u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e a r e a s , once q u i t e i m p o r t a n t , may have t o be re-examined w i t h i n the novel con- t e x t o f the emergent view o f what we c o n s i d e r t o be a p p r o p r i a t e uses o f energy r e s o u r c e s . ( J a a k s o n , 1974, p. 220) In l i g h t o f t h e s e comments i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t some p r e s e n t l y p o p u l a r 11 t r e n d s i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n g e n e r a l and c o t t a g i n g i n p a r t i c u l a r w i l l be s u b j e c t t o change i n the near f u t u r e . The Purpose o f t h i s Study In North America our p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l and c o t t a g i n g (and o f c o u r s e our e n t i r e l i f e s t y l e ) a r e b u i l t on an abundant s u p p l y o f cheap energy. P r i o r t o 1973 and p r o b a b l y even now our d e c i s i o n s which commit us to a c e r t a i n c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i n the f u t u r e a r e based on the assumption t h a t energy w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e a t r e l a t i v e l y low p r i c e s ( i . e . s i m i l a r t o the p r i c e s o f t o d a y ) . As I have e x p l a i n e d b r i e f l y i t i s e x t r e m e l y improbable t h a t i n the f u t u r e energy w i l l con- t i n u e t o be as f r e e l y and c h e a p l y a v a i l a b l e as i t i s p r e s e n t l y . A c q u i r i n g a c o t t a g e i s a d e c i s i o n which f a l l s i n t o the c a t e g o r y o f t h o s e which commit one to a c e r t a i n c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i n the f u t u r e . The degree t o which t h i s s t a t e m e n t i s t r u e v a r i e s from one c o t t a g e owner to a n o t h e r but o v e r a l l t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l degree o f i n t e n t i o n t o use the c o t t a g e r e g u l a r l y . Other c o t t a g e s t u d i e s have shown f r e q u e n c y o f use t o v a r y p r i m a r i l y between e v e r y weekend i n season and once a month i n season depending on the d i s t a n c e from permanent r e s i d e n c e t o the c o t t a g e . ( C o l l i n s & Hardwick, 1972; Hodge, 1970) Any l e v e l o f use w i t h i n t h i s range does i n d i c a t e t h a t the a q u i s i t i o n o f a c o t t a g e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l commitment t o u s i n g i t r e a s o n a b l y o f t e n . Thus t h e r e i s l i t t l e doubt t h a t c o t t a g e r s a r e c o u n t i n g on a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f the p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n o f cheap energy. The o n l y e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s i s t h o s e p e o p l e who have a c q u i r e d a c o t t a g e p r i m a r i l y f o r the purpose o f u s i n g i t as a r e t i r e m e n t home. In l i g h t o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n i n which the c o t t a g i n g phenomena has 12 grown on t h e b a s i s o f cheap energy s u p p l i e s the c e n t r a l purpose o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o i n v e s t i g a t e the i m p l i c a t i o n s which energy s h o r t a g e s and/or p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i l l have f o r l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g . There a r e c e r t a i n l y many p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s . One o f the most o b v i o u s i s t h a t t h o s e p e o p l e whose c o t t a g e s a r e l o c a t e d a t g r e a t d i s t a n c e s from t h e i r homes w i l l p r o b a b l y use t h e i r c o t t a g e w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g f r e q u e n c y as g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r i s e . However, much more knowledge than t h i s i s n e c e s s a r y i f t h e r e i s t o be e f f e c t i v e p l a n n i n g f o r f u t u r e c o t t a g e and o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n a l developments. In o r d e r t o do t h i s we s h o u l d have a good i d e a what r e s p o n s e ( i n terms o f d e c r e a s e d c o t t a g e use and d e c r e a s e i n demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l c o t t a g e s ) t o e x p e c t t o a g i v e n p r i c e r i s e f o r g a s o l i n e . We s h o u l d a l s o have some i d e a s about what s o r t o f s u b s t i t u t e a c t i v i t i e s a r e g o i n g t o be pursued by d i s p l a c e d c o t t a g e r s . These p e o p l e have i n most c a s e s been spending a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f t h e i r f r e e time a t t h e i r c o t t a g e and w i l l now have e x t r a time on t h e i r hands. Are they l i a b l e t o buy a n o t h e r c o t t a g e c l o s e r t o home? C l o s e r t o p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r o u t e s ? W i l l t hey take r e s o r t v a c a t i o n s ? Use p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s n e a r e r t h e i r home? Or s t a y a t home? The answers t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s a r e a l l r e l e v a n t and i m p o r t a n t to r e c r e a t i o n a l and l a n d use p l a n n i n g f o r the f u t u r e . By informed p l a n n i n g today the e f f e c t s o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e energy s h o r t a g e s and p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g i n g can be reduced con- s i d e r a b l y . T h i s can happen by a number o f d i f f e r e n t p r o c e s s e s . New c o t t a g e developments c o u l d be l o c a t e d c l o s e r to the permanent r e s i d e n c e s 13 o f the p e o p l e who w i l l be u s i n g them. New developments c o u l d be l o c a t e d and d e s i g n e d i n such a way as t o make p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t t o and from them a r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y . The e x p a n s i o n o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t to s e r v e e s t a b l i s h e d c o t t a g e a r e a s c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d . A l t e r n a t i v e r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s c l o s e r t o c i t i e s c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d . There a r e many a l t e r n a t i v e s t o the c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n o f e x t e n s i v e c o t t a g i n g based on cheap energy. Which ones s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d and when they s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d i s depen- dant upon the p r e c i s e n a t u r e o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f cheap energy. I t i s i n t e n d e d and hoped t h a t t h i s t h e s i s w i l l p r o v i d e p l a n n e r s w i t h some o f i n f o r m a t i o n n e c e s s a r y to make th e s e d e c i s i o n s . The emphasis o f the t h e s i s w i l l be p r i m a r i l y on the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c o t t a g i n g and energy as the c o t t a g e r sees i t . Some w r i t e r s on the s u b j e c t have su g g e s t e d t h a t a u t o m o b i l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s may n o t be an a p p r o p r i a t e use o f our energy r e s o u r c e s . ( J a a k s o n , 1974) I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h i s q u e s t i o n i s l a r g e l y a q u e s t i o n o f p e r s o n a l v a l u e s and t h e r e f o r e i s n o t a c e n t r a l p a r t o f t h i s t h e s i s . The Need f o r a Study o f t h i s Nature One o f the major r e a s o n s why work o f t h i s type i s needed i s t h a t a l t h o u g h t h i s type o f r e s e a r c h would be u s e f u l t o r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g ( i n the ways e x p l a i n e d p r e v i o u s l y ) l i t t l e has p r e v i o u s l y been done i n the f i e l d . In f a c t a p r e o c c u p a t i o n w i t h o t h e r more p r e s s i n g problems such as n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e development has r e s u l t e d i n c o t t a g i n g s t u d i e s b e i n g g i v e n v e r y low p r i o r i t i e s . In the p a s t a major r e a s o n f o r the l a c k o f r e s e a r c h i n t o c o t t a g i n g i s as f o l l o w s : 14 The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s o b s e r v e d p a u c i t y o f r e s e a r c h stem m a i n l y from two f a c t o r s . The f i r s t o f t h e s e i s t h a t c o t t a g i n g i s un- r e l a t e d t o any f a c e t o f governmental a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and conse- q u e n t l y r e s e a r c h i n t h i s sphere i s s e l f o m demanded f o r p l a n n i n g p u r p o s e s . S e c o n d l y i t i s both e x p e n s i v e and d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n d a t a on t h i s a r e a o f r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y . ( C a m p b e l l , 1967, p l ) In B r i t i s h Columbia (and i n many o t h e r P r o v i n c e s ) we now have r e g i o n a l governments which can p l a n f o r and r e g u l a t e c o t t a g e development. A l t h o u g h c o t t a g i n g has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been unplanned and f r e e from r e s t r i c t i o n , t h a t time i s r a p i d l y coming to an end. S i n c e the t r e n d i s toward p l a n n i n g f o r c o t t a g i n g and we now have a means o f a c c o m p l i s h i n g t h a t goal ( t h e R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t s ) t h i s i s t h e time t o u n d e r t a k e s t u d i e s o f c o t t a g i n g . In p a r t i c u l a r i t i s p r e s e n t l y i m p o r t a n t t h a t work be done on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and e nergy. While some p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h has been done on c o t t a g i n g i n g e n e r a l and t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l amount o f l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g to o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n g e n e r a l t h e r e seems t o be v e r y l i t t l e which r e l a t e s e i t h e r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n o r c o t t a g i n g t o i t s energy base. T h i s i s a s e r i o u s gap i n the l i t e r a t u r e s i n c e w i t h o u t i t any p l a n n i n g f o r f u t u r e c o t t a g i n g w i l l n e c e s s a r i l y be based upon specu- l a t i o n s about t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p . Those s t u d i e s which were most c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o my s u b j e c t a r e a s p e c i f i c a l l y mentioned the need f o r r e s e a r c h i n t h i s f i e l d : F i n a l l y r e s e a r c h i s needed t o p r e d i c t the amount, q u a l i t y , and l o c a t i o n o f f u t u r e second home development. Demand and m a r k e t i n g s t u d i e s can h e l p p r o v i d e t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n . S p e c i f i c a t t e n t i o n must be p a i d t o the e f f e c t s o f c o n t i n u e d s h o r t a g e s o f energy and p o t e n t i a l l i m i t a t i o n s imposed by h i g h e r c o s t s o f a u t o m o b i l e t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n . (Payne, Gannon, and I r l a n d , 1975) Thus i t i s my o p i n i o n t h a t t h i s r e s e a r c h w i l l h e l p t o f i l l an i m p o r t a n t gap which p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s i n the l i t e r a t u r e . 15 Scope o f the Study The scope o f t h i s s t u d y w i l l be r e s t r i c t e d i n a number o f dimen- s i o n s . Up t o t h i s p o i n t the terms c o t t a g i n g and l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g have been used r a t h e r l o o s e l y . T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l c o n c e n t r a t e s o l e l y on l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g . The d e f i n i t i o n o f l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g f o r the purposes o f t h i s s t u d y w i l l i n c l u d e a l l c o t t a g e s f r o n t i n g d i r e c t l y on l a k e s and t h o s e c o t t a g e s whose p r i m a r y r e a s o n f o r e x i s t e n c e i s a nearby l a k e and a r e l o c a t e d w i t h i n one q u a r t e r m i l e o f the p a r t i c u l a r l a k e . A c o t t a g e i s a home l o c a t e d e i t h e r on o r w i t h i n one q u a r t e r m i l e o f a l a k e and i s used p r i m a r i l y i n the summer f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s . C o t t a g e r s a r e t h o s e p e o p l e who own and use t h e s e b u i l d i n g s . In c o n c e p t u a l terms t he g e o g r a p h i c scope o f the stu d y i s the c o t t a g e f i e l d o f the G r e a t e r Vancouver a r e a . S i n c e t h i s c o t t a g e f i e l d extends outwards from Vancouver i n many d i f f e r e n t d i r e c t i o n s i t was n e c e s s a r y t o choose o n l y one s l i c e o f t h i s c o t t a g e f i e l d . A c c o r d i n g to t h i s p r i n c i p l e i t was d e c i d e d t o f o c u s on l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g a l o n g highways #1 and 97 ( i . e . from Vancouver through the F r a s e r V a l l e y and Canyon i n t o t he C a r i b o o ) . W i t h i n t h i s u n i v e r s e o f c o t t a g e r s a sample was s e l e c t e d . When o t h e r t y p e s o f c o t t a g i n g a r e broug h t i n t o the st u d y i t i s o n l y f o r the purpose o f comparison. Thus w h i l e t he r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g e use on Vancouver I s l a n d and f e r r y r a t e s w i l l be con- s i d e r e d t h i s w i l l be done o n l y t o shed more l i g h t on the l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e use-energy c o s t q u e s t i o n . The s t u d y w i l l f o c u s on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and energy as t h a t r e l a t i o n s h i p i s brought o u t i n g a s o l i n e consumption f o r 16 t r a v e l t o and from the c o t t a g e . Other a s p e c t s o f energy use a t the c o t t a g e such as power boats f o r w a t e r s k i i n g w i l l not be c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s i s done i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t the r e s u l t s from becoming too c o n f u s i n g . A major t h r u s t o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l be devoted t o d e v e l o p i n g a r e l a t i o n s h i p between energy ( i . e . g a s o l i n e ) c o s t s and the demand f o r c o t t a g i n g . The scope o f the t h e s i s w i l l be c o n s i d e r a b l y w i d e r than t h i s however i n o r d e r t o make the r e s u l t s more s u i t a b l e f o r p l a n n i n g p u r p o s e s . T h e r e f o r e an e f f o r t w i l l be made t o examine a l t e r n a t i v e s t o a u t o m o b i l e t r i p s t o d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s . A l t e r n a t i v e s such as o t h e r forms o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c l o s e r c o t t a g e s , and o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s i n s t e a d o f c o t t a g i n g w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d . L i t e r a t u r e Review There a r e two major c a t e g o r i e s o f l i t e r a t u r e which a r e p e r - t i n e n t t o t h i s t h e s i s . One o f t h e s e i s the body o f l i t e r a t u r e which c o n c e r n s i t s e l f w i t h the measuring o f the demand f o r and the v a l u e o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . While i t c o u l d be debated as t o whether o r not c o t t a g i n g i t s e l f i s a form o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i t i s a t l e a s t v e r y c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o i t . T h e r e f o r e t h i s body o f l i t e r a t u r e i s v e r y impor- t a n t t o the s t u d y . The second major c a t e g o r y o f l i t e r a t u r e which i s r e l e v a n t t o the study i s t h a t r e l a t i n g t o t h i s p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e . ( P r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand i s the p e r c e n t a g e change i n the q u a n t i t y o f a good demanded i n r e s p o n s e t o a one p e r c e n t change i n i t s p r i c e . ) As i s a p p a r e n t from t h i s d e f i n i t i o n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i s p r i m a r i l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h d e t e r m i n i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p between g a s o l i n e p r i c e changes and 17 changes i n q u a n t i t y demanded. T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s o b v i o u s l y v e r y impor- t a n t t o my s t u d y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e r e seems t o have been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e r e s e a r c h i n t h i s f i e l d . The r e s e a r c h which has been done has c o n c e n t r a t e d on the a g g r e g a t e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e as opposed t o c o n s i d e r i n g t he p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand w i t h r e s p e c t t o s p e c i f i c u s e s . (Houthakker, V e r l e g e r , and Sheehan, 1974; Houthakker and V e r l e g e r , 1974) T h i s i s a s i g n i f i c a n t drawback to u s i n g t h e s e s t u d i e s as a comparison t o t h i s s t u d y s i n c e i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t he p r i c e e l a s i t c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e v a r i e s s u b s t a n t i a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o d i f f e r e n t u s e s . ( i . e . f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l v e r s u s d r i v i n g to work) N e v e r t h e l e s s i t i s s t i l l w o r t h w h i l e t o c o n s i d e r the r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d by t h e s e s t u d i e s . These two i n v e s t i g a t i o n s (Houtakker, V e r l e g e r , and Sheehan; Houthakker and V e r l e g e r ) d i f f e r i n d a t a base, methodology and c o n s l u s i o n s . The H o u t h a k k e r - V e r l e g e r s t u d y i n d i c a t e s t h a t f o r the U n i t e d S t a t e s as a whole the s h o r t run p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e i s -.43 and the l o n g run p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand i s -.75. T h i s a n a l y s i s i s based on r e a l , per c a p i t a consumption f o r each o f the f o r t y - e i g h t s t a t e s and uses annual d a t a f o r the p e r i o d s from 1949 through 1971. The Houthakker, V e r l e g e r , and Sheehan s t u d y i s based on q u a r t e r l y d a t a from 1963 through 1972. S h a r p l y d i f f e r i n g c o n c l u s i o n s were r e a c h e d . The s h o r t run p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand was found t o be -.075 w i t h the l o n g run e s t i m a t e b e i n g -.24. One c r i t i c s u g g e s t s t h a t the h i g h e r a b s o l u t e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s found i n the Houthakker, V e r l e g e r s t u d y may more a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t the t r u e demand e l a s t i c i t i e s . (W.J. Mead, 1974) Another s o u r c e makes the f o l l o w i n g comments about the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e : 18 The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e i s known t o be low, such as -.2: i t i s e x p e c t e d t o be h i g h e r as the p r i c e r i s e s . In o t h e r words, the h i g h e r the p r i c e o f g a s o l i n e the more s e n s i t i v e p e o p l e become t o a sm a l l change i n i t s p r i c e . ( E a r l R o l p h , 1975) Thus even i f the h i g h e s t e s t i m a t e o f t h e H o u t a k k e r - V e r l e g e r s t u d y i s c o r - r e c t t he p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand i s r e l a t i v e l y low., ( l e s s than one i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e ) I t must be noted however t h a t r e l a t i v e l y low p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e by no means imply t h a t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i l l have a n e g l i g i b l e e f f e c t on c o t t a g i n g . As was mentioned e a r l i e r g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e o f 100 p e r c e n t ( i n r e a l terms) a r e by no means o u t o f t he q u e s t i o n i n the next decade or two. A p r i c e i n c r e a s e o f t h i s mag- n i t u d e when c o u p l e d w i t h a p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand o f -0.50 would r e s u l t i n a 50 p e r c e n t d e c r e a s e i n g a s o l i n e demand, (which would l e a d t o a s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n i n c o t t a g i n g ) A l s o i t must be remembered t h a t t h e s e e s t i m a t e s a r e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t o t a l demand f o r g a s o l i n e and n o t j u s t f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l g a s o l i n e demand. The l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h the economics o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n s u g g e s t s s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t ways o f measuring demand f o r and v a l u e o f o u t - door r e c r e a t i o n . The i d e a b e h i n d most o f t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i s t h a t s i n c e most o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n v o l v e s the use o f r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s (such as l a k e s , mountains, beaches, t r a i l s , e t c . ) which a r e g e n e r a l l y p r o v i d e d f r e e o f charge ( e i t h e r by n a t u r e o r by the Government) the o u t d o o r r e c - r e a t i o n i s t i s a p p r o p r i a t i n g a "consumer's s u r p l u s " f o r h i m s e l f . T h e r e - f o r e the o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i s t s h o u l d be w i l l i n g to pay up t o the l i m i t o f t h a t "consumer's s u r p l u s " f o r the o p p o r t u n i t y t o p a r t a k e i n the pa r - t i c u l a r type o f ou t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . The l i t e r a t u r e a t t e m p t s t o d e v i s e 19 v a r i o u s methods by which t h i s consumer s u r p l u s can be measured i n o r d e r t o determine the v a l u e o f t h e s e r e s o u r c e s . There a r e two major approaches t o the e s t i m a t i o n o f w i l l i n g n e s s t o pay by consumers o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . One o f t h e s e i s a d i r e c t method which r e l i e s on i n t e r v i e w s and the o t h e r i s an i n d i r e c t method based on t r a v e l c o s t s . A s t a n d a r d example o f the d i r e c t method o f con- sumer s u r p l u s e s t i m a t i o n i s a s t u d y c a l l e d "The V a l u e o f B i g Game Hun- t i n g i n a P r i v a t e F o r e s t " . ( R o b e r t K. D a v i s , 1963) The w i l l i n g n e s s t o pay o f a sample o f u s e r s was d e t e r m i n e d i n i n t e r v i e w s on the s i t e . The i n t e r v i e w s i n c l u d e d among o t h e r t h i n g s , a b i d d i n g game i n which r e s p o n d e n t s c o u l d r e a c t to i n - c r e a s e d c o s t s o f v i s i t i n g the a r e a . B i d s were s y s t e m a t i c a l l y r a i s e d ( o r lowered) u n t i l t he u s e r s w i t c h e d h i s r e a c t i o n from i n c l u s i o n t o e x c l u s i o n ( o r v i c e v e r s a ) . . . Demand c u r v e s show- i n g how q u a n t i t y demanded i n c r e a s e s as p r i c e i s lowered a r e d e r i v e d from t h i s d a t a s i m p l y by a r r a y i n g the r e s p o n s e s o f w i l l i n g n e s s t o pay per h o u s e h o l d u n i t and c u m u l a t i n g downward. T h a t i s , the number o f buyers who would pay as much o r more than a g i v e n p r i c e i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r each p r i c e . The r e s u l t i n g d i s - t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n shows the number o f households who w i l l be i n the market a t any p r i c e . ( D a v i s , 1963, p. 395) Thus a s i m u l a t e d demand c u r v e f o r h u n t i n g i s d e r i v e d by t h i s method. The o t h e r major approach t o the e s t i m a t i o n o f the magnitude o f the consumer's s u r p l u s i s o u t l i n e d i n Marion Clawson's work "Methods o f Measuring the Demand f o r and V a l u e o f Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . " (Clawson, 1959) T h i s method i s based on the f a c t t h a t s i n c e u s e r c h a r g e s f o r most forms o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a r e e i t h e r v e r y low o r non e x i s t e n t the major c o s t i n v o l v e d i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s the t r a v e l c o s t i n g o i n g from home t o r e c r e a t i o n s i t e . In the Clawson approach one r e a c t i o n a r e a i s s e l e c t e d ( i . e . Yosemite park) and t h e l o c a t i o n o f permanent r e s i d e n c e o f a sample o f the u s e r p o p u l a t i o n i s d e t e r m i n e d . User o r i g i n zones a r e 20 c o n s t r u c t e d a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from the r e c r e a t i o n a r e a and the p o p u l a t i o n i n each zone i s d e t e r m i n e d . A u s e r r a t e i s then c a l c u l a t e d f o r each zone by combining the s u r v e y i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h the zone p o p u l a t i o n d a t a . An approximate t r a v e l c o s t i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r the j o u r n e y from each zone t o the park. I t i s assumed t h a t o n l y monetary t r a v e l c o s t s a r e i m p o r t a n t and t h a t time c o s t s a r e n o t . I t i s a l s o assumed t h a t a t the margin t h e r e i s no consumer s u r p l u s i n each zone, ( i . e . t h a t t h e " l a s t p e r s o n " who uses the park from each zone would not do so i f i t c o s t him s l i g h t l y more than i t p r e s e n t l y does t o do so) A demand c u r v e f o r the use o f the park (by p r o s p e c t i v e u s e r s a t d i f f e r e n t d i s t a n c e s from i t ) i s thus c o n s t r u c t e d . The e f f e c t o f the i m p o s i t i o n o f a u s e r f e e ( o r i n d i r e c t l y the consumer s u r p l u s ) on use from a g i v e n zone i s e s t i m a t e d by moving a l o n g the c u r v e to the p o i n t where t r a v e l c o s t p l u s user.-fee'!for the zone i n q u e s t i o n e q u a l s the o r i g i n a l t r a v e l c o s t from a more d i s t a n t zone. The u s e r r a t e i s taken t o be t h a t o f the approp- r i a t e more d i s t a n t zone. These two methods o f f e r q u i t e d i f f e r e n t approaches t o measuring the consumer s u r p l u s i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n and t o c o n s t r u c t i n g s i m u l a t e d demand c u r v e s f o r the o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e i n q u e s t i o n . There have been o t h e r methods t r i e d but i t i s g e n e r a l l y t hought t h a t t h e s e two a r e the most r e l i a b l e . ( K n e t s c h and D a v i s , 1966). Hypotheses The hypotheses which w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s a r e : 1) As g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r i s e some a r e a s i n the Vancouver c o t t a g i n g f i e l d which a r e p r e s e n t l y p o p u l a r f o r c o t t a g i n g w i l l be r e j e c t e d by the p r e s e n t 21: c o t t a g e r s as b e i n g too e x p e n s i v e t o r e a c h . 2) A t the p r e s e n t time the p r i m a r y l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i n r e g a r d t o the d i s t a n c e p e o p l e w i l l t r a v e l to t h e i r c o t t a g e s i s t r a v e l t i m e . In the near f u t u r e the p r i m a r y l i m i t i n g f a c t o r w i l l become t r a v e l c o s t due t o i n c r e a s e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e s . 3) Lower income people have c o t t a g e s f a r t h e r from Vancouver than do h i g h e r income c o t t a g e r s , (because the l a n d i s c h e a p e r t h e r e ) Methodology T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l be c o n d u c t e d i n a d i r e c t manner by means o f a q u e s t i o n n a i r e . T h i s c h o i c e was made f o r two r e a s o n s : 1) I n d i r e c t methods o f r e s e a r c h such as the "Clawson ap p r o a c h " a r e b e s t s u i t e d t o a s i t u a t i o n i n which t h e r e i s one c o t t a g i n g a r e a and s e v e r a l c i t i e s o f o r i g i n . In B r i t i s h Columbia the g e n e r a l c a s e i s one i n which t h e r e i s one major p o i n t o f o r i g i n ( G r e a t e r Vancouver) and many d i f f e r e n t d e s t i n a t i o n s . Use o f the "Clawson t y p e " model would be v e r y d i f f i c u l t i n t h i s s i t u a t i o n s i n c e i t would i n v o l v e some r a t h e r u n r e a l i s t i c assumptions about use r r a t e s . The p r i m a r y problem i s o f c o u r s e t h a t " c i t i e s o f o r i g i n " a r e o f a f i x e d and known s i z e whereas the c a p a c i t y o f c o t t a g e a r e a s i s a r a t h e r nebulous c o n c e p t . 2) A d i r e c t method ( q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) makes i t p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n o t h e r r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n about the c o t t a g e r s whereas i n d i r e c t methods do n o t . Thus an i n d i r e c t approach would n e c e s s a r i l y l i m i t the scope o f the s t u d y to the d i r e c t e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on the demand f o r c o t t a g i n g . The i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s such as s u b s t i t u t i o n o f o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s f o r c o t t a g i n g c o u l d not be s t u d i e d . In o r d e r t o a t t e m p t t o i s o l a t e the e f f e c t o f t r a v e l c o s t s on 22 c o t t a g i n g sample a r e a s were s e l e c t e d a t t h r e e d i f f e r e n t d i s t a n c e s from Vancouver. S i n c e the c l o s e s t group i s o n l y 70 m i l e s from Vancouver i t can a c t as a c o n t r o l sample f o r some p a r t s o f the a n a l y s i s . For o t h e r p a r t s i t w i l l be compared d i r e c t l y w i t h the two more d i s t a n t sub-groups. A p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w o f c o t t a g e r s w h i l e a t t h e i r c o t t a g e would have been the i d e a l way t o c a r r y o u t t h i s s t u d y . Due t o the time o f y e a r a t which the i n v e s t i g a t i o n was undertaken t h i s was not p o s s i b l e and t h e r e f o r e a m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e was used. The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was m a i l e d t o a sample o f c o t t a g e r s a t s e l e c t e d l a k e s h o r e a r e a s a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from Vancouver. The sample was s e l e c t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g manner. F i r s t o f a l l the g e n e r a l a r e a s were s e l e c t e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the p r e v i o u s l y d e f i n e d g e o g r a p h i c scope o f the s t u d y . The c o t t a g e a r e a s s e l e c t e d a r e : 1) C u l t u s Lake - a p p r o x i m a t e l y 70 m i l e s from Vancouver v i a Highway 401. 2) Loon Lake - a p p r o x i m a t e l y 240 m i l e s from Vancouver v i a Highways 401, 1, and 97. 3) Canim Lake, Deka Lake, and Sulphurous Lake - a p p r o x i m a t e l y 330 m i l e s from Vancouver v i a Highways 401, 1, and 97. (See Map). I d e a l l y i t would have been p r e f e r a b l e to have the second sampling p o i n t c l o s e r t o Vancouver i n o r d e r t o have a more u n i f o r m d i s t a n c e breakdown. However t h i s was n o t p o s s i b l e due t o t h e r e b e i n g v e r y l i t t l e c o t t a g i n g i n t he F r a s e r Canyon and Lower Thompson (Cache Creek to L y t t o n ) r e g i o n s . Once t h e s e c o t t a g e a r e a s were s e l e c t e d the a p p r o p r i a t e t o p o g r a - p h i c a l maps were examined and d i s t r i c t l o t numbers f o r the l a k e s h o r e a r e a s were not e d . These d i s t r i c t l o t numbers were taken t o the B.C. 21 Assessment A u t h o r i t y r e c o r d s where the names and a d d r e s s e s o f the owners o f each sub l o t w i t h i n the a p p r o p r i a t e d i s t r i c t l o t s were o b t a i n e d . The e x a c t g e o g r a p h i c l o c a t i o n o f each sub l o t c o u l d n o t be d e t e r m i n e d ( i . e . e x a c t l o c a t i o n w i t h i n the s p e c i f i c d i s t r i c t l o t ) and thus not a l l o f the sample were w a t e r f r o n t c o t t a g e s . One advantage o f u s i n g the assessment r o l e i s t h a t i t d i s t i n g u i s h e d between empty l o t s and l o t s w i t h improvements and t h e r e f o r e the problem o f s a m p l i n g owners o f empty l o t s was e l i m i n a t e d . The c h o o s i n g o f sample s i z e u s u a l l y i n v o l v e s making a compromise between time and funds a v a i l a b l e f o r the s u r v e y and the s i z e d e s i r a b l e f o r s t a t i s t i c a l r e l i a b i l i t y . T h i s c a s e was no e x c e p t i o n . I t was d e c i d e d t o sample about s e v e n t y - f i v e c o t t a g e r s a t each l o c a t i o n . A t the C u l t u s Lake s i t e t h i s sample s i z e was e a s i l y a t t a i n e d s i n c e t h e r e a r e hundreds o f C u l t u s Lake c o t t a g e s owned by r e s i d e n t s o f G r e a t e r Vancouver. The Loon Lake s i t e proved t o be more o f a problem s i n c e a s e a r c h o f the Assessment Role i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e r e were o n l y 63 c o t t a g e s owned by r e s i - dents o f G r e a t e r Vancouver. U n f o r t u a n t e l y t h e r e a r e no o t h e r a d j a c e n t l a k e s which c o u l d be added i n t o t h i s sample and t h e r e f o r e i t was l e f t a t 63. The Canim Lake a r e a was a l s o d e f i c i e n t i n numbers o f Vancouver owned c o t t a g e s but t h i s was e a s i l y compensated f o r by i n c l u d i n g two n e i g h b o u r i n g l a k e s . I t must be noted t h a t t h i s i s a s u r v e y o f s e l e c t e d Vancouver c o t t a g e r s o n l y and i s by no means a random sample. The zones were s e l e c t e d p u r p o s e l y . W i t h i n two o f the zones a l l c o t t a g e r s f i t t i n g w i t h i n the scope o f the s t u d y were sampled w h i l e i n the t h i r d the f i r s t s e v e n t y - f i v e c o t t a g e r s on the assessment, r o l e were sampled. A l l s e l e c t e d c o t t a g e r s r e c e i v e d a copy o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e and 24 a c o v e r i n g l e t t e r . T h i s was f o l l o w e d about ten days l a t e r by a f o l l o w up l e t t e r and a n o t h e r copy o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . In o r d e r t o r e l a t e t h i s d a t a t o the p o p u l a t i o n o f G r e a t e r Vancouver c o t t a g e r s the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n must be sampled f o r b a s i c d a t a such as income, e t c . F o r t u n a t e l y t h i s work has a l r e a d y been performed. ( T a y l o r , 1973). The sample o f c o t t a g e r s can thus be compared t o the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n by comparing c e r t a i n r e l e v a n t p r o f i l e v a r i a b l e s ( D a v i s , 1963). In c o n c e p t u a l terms the q u e s t i o n n a i r e can be d i v i d e d i n t o the f o l l o w i n g p a r t s : 1) I n q u i r i e s aobut p r e s e n t and p a s t ( b e f o r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o f the l a s t two-three y e a r s ) use t o d e t e r m i n e i f t h e r e has been any change due t o r e c e n t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . 2) I n q u i r i e s about p r o b a b l e f u t u r e r e s p o n s e s t o f u r t h e r g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . These a r e i n both q u a n t i t a t i v e ( e s t i m a t e s o f r e d u c t i o n i n use) and q u a l i t a t i v e ( s t r a t e g i e s t o cope w i t h g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g ) terms. 3) Q u e s t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o r e a s o n s f o r g o i n g t o the c o t t a g e and t o a l t e r - n a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s . 4) General background i n f o r m a t i o n about the c o t t a g e r , h i s c o t t a g e , and h i s t r i p t o the c o t t a g e . S i n c e the d a t a c o l l e c t e d a r e o f a w i d e l y v a r i e d n a t u r e s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t methods o f a n a l y s i s a r e r e q u i r e d . F i r s t o f a l l d i s t r i b u t i o n s and mean v a l u e s f o r use b e f o r e and a f t e r p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e t a b u l a t e d f o r each subgroup i n o r d e r t o d e f i n e the magnitude o f the e f f e c t o f p a s t p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g e use. S e c o n d l y the r e s p o n s e s t o q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g f u t u r e use a t g i v e n g a s o l i n e p r i c e s a r e a v e r a g e d w i t h i n each 25 group ( f o r each p r i c e ) i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a group e s t i m a t e o f f u t u r e r e s p o n s e t o a s p e c i f i e d p r i c e i n c r e a s e . Next p r o f i l e d a t a ( s o c i o - e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s , l e n g t h o f ownership o f c o t t a g e e t c . ) a r e r e l a t e d t o p a s t r e s p o n s e t o g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s t o de t e r m i n e what s o r t o f r e l a t i o n - s h i p s ( i f any) e x i s t . T h i s i s done by means o f s i m p l e b i - v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s w i t h c h i - s q u a r e v a l u e s b e i n g c a l c u l a t e d t o check on the s i g - n i f i c a n c e o f the r e s u l t s ; The s o c i o - e c o n o m i c d a t a f o r each subgroup i s compared t o o t h e r subgroups i n o r d e r t o de t e r m i n e i f s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t (such as lower income c o t t a g e r s g o i n g f a r t h e r to t h e i r c o t t a g e s , e t c . ) . A d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s t o the q u e s t i o n s r e l a t e d t o t he reaso n s f o r c o t t a g i n g (and a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s ) i s g i v e n i n o r d e r t o i n v e s t i g a t e the s e c o n d a r y e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o r r a t i o n i n g . I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t a t t e n t i o n i s d i r e c t e d towards t h e e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e changes on c o t t a g i n g i n g e n e r a l and not s p e c i - f i c a l l y towards the demand f o r c o t t a g e s ( i . e . t he a c t i v i t y i s s t r e s s e d as opposed t o the o b j e c t ) . T h i s method o f d e r i v i n g t he r e l a t i o n s h i p between g a s o l i n e p r i c e s and c o t t a g i n g i s o b v i o u s l y dependant on the a c c u r a c y o f r e s p o n s e s t o h y p o t h e t i c a l q u e s t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o back up t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h o t h e r d a t a . F or t h i s r e a s o n a second q u e s t i o n n a i r e was m a i l e d t o owners o f c o t t a g e s on Vancouver I s l a n d . T h i s was n o t r e s t r i c t e d e n t i r e l y t o l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e r s ( i . e . some ocean f r o n t c o t t a g e r s were i n c l u d e d ) s i n c e the i n t e n t i o n i s s i m p l y t o u t i l i z e t h e sharp f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s o f l a s t summer as a proxy f o r g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . 26 C o t t a g i n g a r e a s were s e l e c t e d from p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e , a p p r o p r i a t e t o p o g r a p h i c a l maps were c o n s u l t e d t o f i n d d i s t r i c t l o t numbers, and then the assessment r o l e s were examined t o o b t a i n a sample o f Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s who r e s i d e d i n Vancouver. S i n c e t h e r e do not appear t o be any p a r t i c u l a r a r e a s on Vancouver I s l a n d where l a r g e numbers o f V a n c o u v e r i t e s have c o t t a g e s i t was n e c e s s a r y t o sample s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s . The a r e a s sampled were Qualicum Beach, Shawnigan Lake, and Lake Cowichan. These l o c a t i o n s were a l l lumped i n t o one sample s i n c e t h e r e i s n o t a g r e a t d e a l o f v a r i a t i o n among them i n terms o f d i s t a n c e from f e r r y t e r - m i n a l s ( a t l e a s t not enough v a r i a t i o n t o be s i g n i f i c a n t i n terms o f t r a v e l c o s t ) . The p o o l i n g o f a l l Vancouver owned c o t t a g e s a t t h e s e a r e a s p r o v i d e d a sample o f f o r t y c o t t a g e r s . As was the case w i t h my o t h e r q u e s t i o n n a i r e two m a i l i n g s were conducted i n o r d e r t o i n c r e a s e the r a t e o f r e s p o n s e . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was v e r y b r i e f . I t asked about f r e q u e n c y o f p a s t use o f the c o t t a g e ( p r i o r t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s ) and f r e q u e n c y o f p r e s e n t use o f the c o t t a g e i n o r d e r to d e t e r m i n e the e f f e c t s o f the f a r e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g e use. Q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g f a m i l y income, v a l u e o f the c o t t a g e , and l e n g t h o f ownership o f the c o t t a g e were a l s o asked i n o r d e r t o compare t h i s subgroup t o the o t h e r t h r e e subgroups i n the s u r v e y . The a n a l y s i s o f t h i s d a t a i s v e r y s i m p l e . Responses t o the f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s a r e t a b u l a t e d i n d i s t r i b u t i o n form and mean use v a l u e s b e f o r e and a f t e r f a r e i n c r e a s e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . B i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s i s a l s o employed t o r e l a t e f a m i l y income t o r e c o r d e d r e s p o n s e . 27 These d e r i v e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e combined w i t h the r e s u l t s from the o t h e r t h r e e subgroups i n o r d e r t o draw c o n c l u s i o n s . i 28 CHAPTER TWO DESCRIPTION OF INFORMATION COLLECTED AND ANALYSIS OF DATA Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Returns Of a t o t a l o f 253 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s which were m a i l e d f o r t h i s s tudy 102 were r e t u r n e d . The r e t u r n s were d i s t r i b u t e d as shown i n T a b l e #1. The o v e r a l l r a t e o f r e t u r n o f 40 p e r c e n t i s q u i t e h i g h f o r a m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e which i s not o f f i c i a l l y s a n c t i o n e d b ut i s by no means e x c e p t i o n a l . The r a t e o f r e t u r n o f 58 p e r c e n t f o r the Vancouver I s l a n d subsample i s e x t r e m e l y h i g h . T h i s i s a r e s u l t o f two f a c t o r s . The most i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n i s t h a t t he f e r r y r a t e i n c r e a s e o c c u r r e d r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t l y and was v e r y c o n t r o v e r s i a l . I t i s the s o r t o f i s s u e about which thos e a f f e c t e d take e v e r y chance p r e s e n t e d t o them to comment on i t ( i n c l u d i n g a r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) . The second r e a s o n f o r the h i g h response r a t e among t h i s subsample i s t h a t t he q u e s t i o n n a i r e s e n t t o t h i s group was v e r y s h o r t . The number o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s which c o u l d n o t be d e l i v e r e d by the p o s t o f f i c e was q u i t e low i n a l l c a s e s e x c e p t f o r the 330 m i l e subsample (Canim, C u l p h u r o u s , Deka l a k e s ) . The assessment r o l e f o r t h i s a r e a must not have been updated as r e c e n t l y as t h e o t h e r s . N e a r l y a l l o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s r e t u r n e d i n d i c a t e d t h a t the pr i m a r y purpose f o r o b t a i n i n g the c o t t a g e had been as a v a c a t i o n home and t h e r e f o r e were r e l e v a n t t o my st u d y (90 p e r c e n t were bought f o r use as v a c a t i o n homes). Only 2 p e r c e n t o f the r e t u r n e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s 29 TABLE #1 QUESTIONNAIRE RETURNS Sample Area ( d i s t a n c e from Vancouver) Number o f C o t t a g e r s Surveyed Number o f Q u e s t i o n n a i r e s which c o u l d not be d e l i v e r e d Return from F i r s t Mai T i n g Return from Second M a i l i n g T o t a l P e r c e n t Return 70 m i l e s - C u l t u s Lake 75 3 25 7 43% 240 m i l e s -Loon Lake 63 5 17 4 33% 330 M i l e s -Canim, Deka, Sulphurous Lakes i 75 12 21 5 35% Vancouver I s l a n d 40 1 22 1 58% T o t a l 253 21 85 17 40% 30 i n d i c a t e d t h a t the owner now l i v e d f u l l time a t the c o t t a g e ( o r f u l l time f o r h a l f o f t h e y e a r ) . These few q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were n o t used i n the a n a l y s i s s i n c e they were not r e l e v a n t t o the s t u d y . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e s used i n the f i r s t m a i l i n g were i d e n t i f i a b l e from t h o s e used i n the second. I t was t h e r e f o r e p o s s i b l e t o compare the r e s p o n s e s to c e r t a i n key q u e s t i o n s between t h e s e two subsamples. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f the r e t u r n s r e v e a l e d no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s between t h o s e who r e p l i e d t o t h e f i r s t m a i l i n g and t h o s e who r e p l i e d t o the second. I t was not p o s s i b l e t o prove t h i s ' s t a t i s t i c a l l y : due.:to:the.very low r e s p o n s e t o the second m a i l i n g . T h e r e - f o r e the two groups were a n a l y s e d t o g e t h e r . Responses o f the C o t t a g e r s t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s o f t h e L a s t Few Years A l t h o u g h the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o f the l a s t few y e a r s ( s p e c i f i c a l l y the approximate r e a l p r i c e r i s e o f 20 p e r c e n t between 1974 and 1976) have added o n l y a few d o l l a r s ( a b o u t $6.00 t o the r e a l round t r i p c o s t t o the most d i s t a n t a r e a ) t o t h e c o s t o f t r a v e l l i n g to t h e s e l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e a r e a s my r e s u l t s show t h a t t h e r e has been some e f f e c t on amount o f use. For normal weekends the d e c r e a s e i n number o f t r i p s per y e a r ranged from o n l y 2 p e r c e n t f o r the C u l t u s Lake a r e a to 13 p e r c e n t f o r the Canim Lake a r e a . (See T a b l e s #2, #3, and #4) These appear t o be r e a s o n a b l e r e s u l t s w i t h t h e r e b e i n g a l m o s t no change " ( i n the number o f t r i p s a t t h e c l o s e s t a r e a and the maximum re s p o n s e o c c u r r i n g a t the f a r t h e s t a r e a . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a f o r h o l i d a y weekends a l s o i n d i c a t e s a lower r e s p o n s e a t C u l t u s Lake than a t the two 31: TABLE #2.. TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 70 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 - 1 1 1 2 - 3 2 2 4 - 5 2 2 6 - 7 6 3 8 - 9 1 2 10 - 15 5 6 16 + 11 11 T o t a l 28 28 Average 10.7 10.9 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 2% TABLE #3 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES 1 - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 240 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 - 1 6 5 2 - 3 3 4 4 - 5 1 1 6 - 7 2 1 8 - 9 2 2 10 + 3 4 T o t a l 16 16 Average 4.4 4.8 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 8% 32 TABLE #4 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 330 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 - 1 14 12 2 - 3 4 4 4 - 5 2 4 6 - 7 1 1 8 - 9 0 0 10 + 2 2 T o t a l 23 23 Average 2.28 2.63 % R e d u c t i o n i n Use 13.3% (Average v a l u e s f o r number o f t r i p s f o r T a b l e s #2, #3, and #4 were c a l c u l a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner: For v a l u e s (number o f t r i p s ) from 0-9 a s t a n d a r d group mean p r o c e d u r e was used whereby the m i d p o i n t o f each group was m u l t i p l i e d by the number o f r e s p o n d e n t s i n t h a t group. In the 10+ group the number o f r e s p o n d e n t s was m u l t i p l i e d by 10. These numbers were then summed and d i v i d e d by the t o t a l number o f r e s p o n d e n t s . ) 33 more d i s t a n t a r e a s . (See T a b l e s #5, #6, and #7) The q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the number o f v i s i t s on extended v a c a t i o n each y e a r b e f o r e and a f t e r the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s seemed t o g e n e r a t e some c o n f u s i o n between number o f v i s i t s on extended v a c a t i o n and t o t a l number o f weeks o f extended v a c a t i o n . F o r t h i s reason i t was d i f f i c u l t t o a n a l y s e t h i s d a t a i n the manner which was done f o r weekends and h o l i d a y weekends. The b a s i c t r e n d d i d seem t o be one o f no a p p a r e n t change i n r e s p o n s e to g a s o l i n e p r i c e changes. I t i s o f c o u r s e p o s s i b l e t h a t some o f the i n d i v i d u a l changes i n amount o f use o v e r t h i s p e r i o d were due t o e x t r a n e o u s f a c t o r s which by c o i n c i d e n c e o c c u r r e d i n the same time p e r i o d as t h e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , (such as change i n f a m i l y p r e f e r e n c e s e t c . ) Responses o f Vancouver I s l a n d C o t t a g e s t o F e r r y F a r e I n c r e a s e s The o t h e r subsample o f c o t t a g e r s i n the s t u d y a l s o showed a s i g n i f i c a n t r e a c t i o n t o i n c r e a s e d c o s t s o f v i s i t i n g t h e i r c o t t a g e . The c o s t i n c r e a s e i n t h i s case was more s u b s t a n t i a l (form about $26 r e t u r n t o $48 r e t u r n . I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t average t o t a l g a s o l i n e c o s t s f o r the most d i s t a n t group o f l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e r s have r i s e n from about $20 i n 1974 t o about $31 i n 1976. These c o s t s a r e i n the same a b s o l u t e range as the Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s ' c o s t s which i s i m p o r t a n t t o the v a l i d i t y o f comparison between groups. (See Appendix f o r the assumptions and c a l c u l a t i o n s b e h i n d t h e s e f i g u r e s . ) T a b l e s #8 and #9 do show a n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e t o the i n c r e a s e d f e r r y r a t e s which i n a b s o l u t e terms i s g r e a t e r than the r e s p o n s e s o f the m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s t o g a s o l i n e 34 TABLE #5 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 70 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 8 8 3 7 4 4 6 8 5 3 3 6+ 3 5 T o t a l 19 19 Average 3.3 3.6 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 8% TABLE #6 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 240 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 3 3 1 0 0 2 4 1 3 6 5 4 1 3 5+ 5 7 T o t a l 19 19 Average 2.9 3.4 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 15% 35 TABLE #7 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 330 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 4 4 1 6 1 2 6 9 3 3 5 4 3 2 5+ 2 3 T o t a l 24 24 Average 2.0 2.4 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 17% (These averages ( T a b l e s #5, #6, #7) were d e t e r m i n e d by the same method as was used f o r T a b l e s #2, #3, #4.) 36 TABLE #8 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO THE COTTAGE - BEFORE AND AFTER FERRY FARE INCREASES - VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 - 1 8 1 2 - 3 6 4 4 - 5 3 11 6 r 7 1 1 8 - 9 3 1 10+ 2 5 T o t a l 23 23 Mean 3.7 5.4 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 31% TABLE #9 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO THE COTTAGE- BEFORE AND AFTER FERRY FARE INCREASES -• VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) Number o f T r i p s L a s t 12 B e f o r e P r i c e Per Year Months I n c r e a s e s 0 10 5 1 1 0 2 5 6 3 2 5 4 4 3 5+ 1 4 T o t a l 23 23 Mean 1.7 2.6 % R e d u c t i o n i n use 35% 37 p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . In r e l a t i v e terms the r e s p o n s e o f the Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s t o t h e i n c r e a s e d f e r r y r a t e s was s m a l l e r than t h a t o f t h e i n t e r i o r c o t t a g e r s t o i n c r e a s e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e s . I t was e x p e c t e d t h a t the r e v e r s e would be t r u e s i n c e the f e r r y f a r e s r e p r e s e n t a much h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l t r a v e l c o s t s t o the Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s than do g a s o l i n e c o s t s t o the i n t e r i o r c o t t a g e r s . ( A u t o m o b i l e d e p r e - c i a t i o n and maintenance c o s t s a r e u s u a l l y equal t o o r g r e a t e r than g a s o l i n e c o s t s . ) The r e l a t i v e r e s p o n s e s o f the v a r i o u s subgroups o f c o t t a g e r s t o the i n c r e a s e s i n t r a v e l c o s t s i s shown i n T a b l e #10 i n the form o f p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e . One pos- s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s can be found i n p e o p l e ' s r e a c t i o n s t o i n f l a t i o n . The f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e o c c u r r e d i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y and thus the f u l l d o l l a r amount o f t h e i n c r e a s e was p r o b a b l y seen as a r e a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e . ( A t most i t c o u l d be argued t h a t from the c o t t a g e r s ' p o i n t o f view t h e f a r e i n c r e a s e took p l a c e o v e r the e i g h t month p e r i o d from September 1975 when the p r e v i o u s summer's heavy use season ended t o A p r i l , 1976 when the i n c r e a s e s took e f f e c t . However, d e f l a t i n g the f a r e i n c r e a s e s t o a c c o u n t f o r t h i s e i g h t months o f i n f l a t i o n changes the r e s u l t s v e r y l i t t l e . ) On the o t h e r hand the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s took p l a c e o v e r a two y e a r p e r i o d i n which the r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n was h i g h . The p r e v i o u s l y mentioned p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s were c a l c u l a t e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o the d e f l a t e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . These p r i c e i n c r e a s e s were l e s s than h a l f o f the a c t u a l p r i c e r i s e i n d o l l a r terms. The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s as c a l c u l a t e d w i t h u n d e f l a t e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e as f o l l o w s : 38 TABLE #10 PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR TRIPS TO COTTAGES ( w i t h r e s p e c t t o the p r i c e o f g a s o l i n e and f e r r y f a r e s o n l y ) Subgroup Weekends Long Weekends Vancouver I s l a n d -0.36 -0.41 70 m i l e -0.10 -0.38 240 m i l e -0.39 -0.71 330 m i l e -0.64 -0.83 Sample c a l c u l a t i o n : E = % Change i n Quantity Vancouver Island-Weekends) % Change i n P r i c e P r i c e - $26 -* $48 = 85% i n c r e a s e Q u a n t i t y - 5.4 -> 4.7 = 31% d e c r e a s e E = 31% = -0.36 85% 33 330 M i l e Sample - Weekends - E = -.22 H o l i d a y weekends E = T.36 240 M i l e Sample - Weekends - E = -.15 H o l i d a y weekends E = -.39 70 M i l e Sample - Weekends - E = -.06 H o l i d a y weekends E = -.18 These v a l u e s compare much more c l o s e l y t o t h o s e c a l c u l a t e d f o r the Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e s ( e x c e p t o f c o u r s e f o r the 70 M i l e sample which i s n o t d i r e c t l y comparable t o the Vancouver I s l a n d sample due t o the much s m a l l e r magnitude o f t o t a l t r a v e l c o s t s i n the 70 m i l e group. In r e a l i t y i t i s p r o b a b l y t r u e t h a t the c o t t a g e r ' s p e r c e p t i o n o f the magnitude o f the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s i s somewhere between t h e i r r e a l amount and t h e i r u n d e f l a t e d amount. T h i s d a t a s u g g e s t s t h a t the c o t t a g e r s tend t o i g n o r e the m o d e r a t i n g e f f e c t s o f i n f l a t i o n on the p r i c e i n c r e a s e s t o a l a r g e e x t e n t . W h ile the r e s p o n d e n t s may have e x p e r i e n c e d some income changes i n t h i s p e r i o d t h e s e p r o b a b l y would have been upward which r e i n f o r c e s the p r e c e d i n g s t a t e m e n t about i n f l a t i o n . One a s p e c t o f t h i s d a t a which was r a t h e r unexpected i s t h a t the p e r c e n t a g e d e c r e a s e i n number o f t r i p s on h o l i d a y weekends was g r e a t e r than the p e r c e n t a g e d e c r e a s e i n number o f t r i p s on r e g u l a r weekends. T h i s was t r u e f o r a l l f o u r subgroups. I t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t the c o t t a g e r s would v a l u e h o l i d a y weekends more h i g h l y s i n c e they a l l o w e d them to spend an e x t r a day a t t h e c o t t a g e . I t may be t h a t c o t t a g e r s f i n d h o l i d a y weekends f r u s t r a t i n g due t o crowded highways and f e r r y l i n e u p s and t h e r e f o r e v a l u e r e g u l a r weekends more h i g h l y . As was shown p r e v i o u s l y ( i n T a b l e s #2-#9) the r e d u c t i o n i n use c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s was s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r ( i n both p e r c e n t a g e s and a b s o l u t e terms) i n the t h r e e subgroups f o r which 40 t r a v e l c o s t was a l r e a d y s u b s t a n t i a l than f o r t h e 70 M i l e group where t r a v e l c o s t i s v e r y low. T h i s i s i m p o r t a n t s i n c e i t s u g g e s t s t h a t n e a r l y a l l o f the r e p o r t e d r e d u c t i o n i n use was a r e s u l t o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e o r f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s and was not due t o the r a t h e r poor weather o f the 1976 summer se a s o n . T a b l e #11 summarizes some a s p e c t s o f the poor weather s i t u a t i o n which p r e v a i l e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . The g e n e r a l p i c t u r e i s one o f bad weather t h r o u g h o u t t h e p r o v i n c e w i t h c o a s t a l and i n t e r i o r r e g i o n s both f a r i n g p o o r l y . The q u e s t i o n r e g a r d i n g extended v a c a t i o n was worded d i f f e r e n t l y on t h e Vancouver I s l a n d q u e s t i o n n a i r e than i t was on t h e m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s ' q u e s t i o n n a i r e and t h e r e f o r e the r e s u l t s c o u l d be t a b u l a t e d . (See T a b l e #12) I t i s a p p a r e n t from r e a d i n g a d d i t i o n a l comments w r i t t e n on some o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t h a t t h i s d e c r e a s e i n number o f weeks' v a c a t i o n a f t e r the f e r r y f a r e s i n c r e a s e s was l a r g e l y due t o a few f a m i l i e s who were i n the h a b i t o f moving to the c o t t a g e f o r the e n t i r e summer s c h o o l break w i t h the head o f the h o u s e h o l d l i v i n t a t the c o t t a g e on weekends and i n Vancouver d u r i n g the week. T h e r e f o r e i t i s r a t h e r d o u b t f u l i f the f a r e i n c r e a s e s had much e f f e c t on extended v a c a t i o n use. C o t t a g e r s A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s Q u e s t i o n #6 on the l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e r ' s q u e s t i o n n a i r e attempted t o g e t a d i r e c t measure o f the c o t t a g e r s ' a n t i c i p a t e d r e s p o n s e s t o f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . The r e s p o n s e s t o the 330 m i l e and 240 m i l e subgroups i n d i c a t e d t h a t most r e s p o n d e n t s (81 p e r c e n t and 76 p e r c e n t r e s p e c t i v e l y ) a t l e a s t took the time t o c o n s i d e r the i n t e n t o f the 41: TABLE #11 CLIMATIC DATA FOR THE SUMMER OF 1976 Month L o c a t i o n Temperature P r e c i p i t a t i o n Mean D i f f e r e n c e T o t a l D i f f e r e n c e D a i l y from Amount from Normal (°F) Normal II May Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) 52.9 - 1.4 2.90 1.03 Shawnigan Lake 51.3 - 1.9 2.06 0.63 Kamloops 58.4 0.2 1.04 .14 Loon Lake 50.1 100 M i l e House 49.4 June Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) 56,'6 - 2.9 2.17 .39 Shawnigan Lake 55.4 - 3.1 1.40 .03 Kamloops 62.6 - 2.6 1.34 .03 Loon Lake 52.4 1 .98 100 M i l e House 53.1 2.59 J u l y Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) 62.4 -•1.0 0.91 - .26 Shawnigan Lake 61 .0 - 2.0 0.59 - .29 Kamloops 68.6 - 1.4 2.28 1 1.31 100 M i l e House 58.1 2.25 August Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) 60.6 - 2.1 2.91 1.45 Shawnigan Lake 60.0 - 2.6 2.37 1.39 Kamloops 63.5 - 4.0 4.47 3.38 Loon Lake 58.2 3.32 100 M i l e House 56.3 1.96 1.80" f e l l i n one day-thus the r e s t o f the month was v e r y d r y . ( S i m i l a r d i s t r i b u t i o n s were noted f o r Loon Lake and 100 M i l e House) TABLE # 12 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKS OF VACATION SPENT AT THE COTTAGE - BEFORE AND AFTER FERRY FARE INCREASES - VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP. Number o f Weeks L a s t 12 B e f o r e o f V a c a t i o n Months I n c r e a s e s 0 - 1 2 1 - 3 6 6 4 - 5 9 8 6 - 7 3 3 8+ 3 5 T o t a l 23 23 Mean 4.34 4.8 43 q u e s t i o n and make some e s t i m a t e o f t h e i r f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r under the con- d i t i o n s l i s t e d . The r e s p o n s e s o f t h e s e two subgroups a r e shown i n T a b l e s #13 and #14. A g a i n t h e r e appeared t o be some c o n f u s i o n between number o f t r i p s on extended v a c a t i o n and number o f weeks o f v a c a t i o n but the o v e r a l l t r e n d seems t o be one o f l i t t l e change w i t h gas p r i c e s . The c o t t a g e r s i n t h e 70 m i l e subgroup showed v e r y l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n t h i s q u e s t i o n ( u n d e r s t a n d a b l y , s i n c e t h e y would n o t be a f f e c t e d g r e a t l y ) w i t h o n l y 32 p e r c e n t o f the r e s p o n d e n t s f i l l i n g o u t the t a b l e . Two o t h e r r e s p o n d e n t s made comments a d j a c e n t t o the q u e s t i o n t h a t i f p r i c e s con- t i n u e d t o r i s e they would be f o r c e d t o s e l l t h e i r c o t t a g e s . There i s a s t r o n g l i k e l i h o o d t h a t the low r e s p o n s e r a t e t o the q u e s t i o n w i l l be a s o u r c e o f b i a s . I t was f e l t t h a t many o f t h o s e who t h o u g h t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s would n o t a f f e c t t h e i r use o f t h e i r c o t t a g e d i d not answer t h i s q u e s t i o n whereas most o f t h o s e who d i d t h i n k i t would a f f e c t t h e i r use o f t h e i r c o t t a g e d i d answer. T h e r e f o r e i t was d e c i d e d not t o a n a l y z e the r e s p o n s e s to t h i s q u e s t i o n by the 70 m i l e subgroup. F o r t h e most p a r t the d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n t h e s e t a b l e s (#13 and #14) appear r e a s o n a b l e w i t h the o n l y i n c o n s i s t e n c y b e i n g t h a t the average e s t i m a t e d number o f weekend t r i p s per y e a r f o r the c o t t a g e r s i n the 240 m i l e subgroup a t a g a s o l i n e p r i c e o f $1.00 per g a l l o n i s g r e a t e r than the number c u r r e n t l y b e i n g made (See T a b l e s #13 and #3). F i g u r e s #2, #3, and #4 show t h a t a t p r i c e l e v e l s r e l a t i v e l y near t o t h o s e o f the p r e s e n t ( i . e . under $1.50 per g a l l o n ) r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s e s w i l l be f a i r l y s i m i l a r t o t h a t e x p e r i e n c e d i n the p a s t . I t i s o n l y i n the extreme p r i c e ranges ($2-$3) per g a l l o n t h a t the c o t t a g e r s i n d i c a t e they 44 TABLE #13 ANTICIPATED RESPONSES TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICES (240 M i l e subsample) GASOLINE COSTS ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VISITS PER YEAR Per G a l l o n Round t r i p g a s o l i n e c o s t Weekends H o l i d a y f o r 240 m i l e one way t r i p (mean) Weekends @ 20 m i l e s p er g a l . (Mean) $1.00 $33.00 4.9 2.7 $1.50 50.00 3.5 2.3 $2.00 66.00 2.5 1 .6 $3.00 100.00 2.0 1.2 TABLE #14 ANTICIPATED RESPONSES TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICES (330 m i l e subsample) GASOLINE COSTS ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VISITS PER YEAR Per G a l l o n Round t r i p g a s o l i n e c o s t Weekends H o i i d a y f o r 330 m i l e one way t r i p (Mean) (Mean) @ 20 m i l e s per g a l . $1.00 $33.00 1.1 2.0 $1.50 50.00 1.1 1.9 $2.00 66.00 0.9 1.3 $3.00 100.00 0.6 0.8 FIGURE #2 PAST RESPONSE AND ANTICIPATED FUTURE RESPONSES.TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (24-0 M i l e subgroup) - i -"j F r - | - '-f " V • i J . , 1 u-,1 : i 1 i " i " i ! r i i i 1 I _J i.- j i I M M ! 1 I i " ] i | | ..!_ j ; ! r • i i t 1 ! i i ! ! ! I _ _ . .1 J..J [.„!. ; i " t i ~ [ " i i i i j ; j ..! ! , i. i 1 ' i i ! 1 1 j i | i ! i 1 | j ! ! ! j ; "Hi !"" — i i H I M ! J__j I L M ! M — ] i i i 1 1 ! 1 i , j | ] I 1 i : i I _ . ! _ . . _ 1 j M M 1 I ^ i 1 _ L . i _ . L 1 I i i | i i i i ! i ! ! i | ... i 1 ! ; i ! L 4- • 1 I I i i i ( —> _; 1 i ! M M ' M i j j j M M M M ! 1 i ! i : i 1 ; i i i i i j ! ; j 1 ] i M M i M ! 1 M i 1 • ! i i i ; 1 i I 1 1 ! 1 i 1 ' ! ! ! • i ' i I ; I ! ! i M i l M M M ! 1 M ] | i 1 i 1 i 1 1 M 1 "j M M i i 1 ! i l l i i i 1 M 1 i M 1 1 i I j 1 : 1 , l ! ! • 1 1 | i 1 i ; j 1 1 ! j ! i j . I i i . : — i - _ i _ L 1 i i ; i ! j 'i i ! I 1 I 1 _ J i u 1 1 1 I j 1 I i j I ! 1 M ! 1 ! i 1 I ! i L i • i i i 1 l 1 i : i i i ! i ' 1 ? - .. | i ! i\ M i l L L L U U _ I T i 1 ] _ ! _ ! !_!_, 1 1 i 1 \ \ r i 1 \ i i n n i I M I n i 1 j i M i i ! 1 — I i M i l l I i ! __ i i i i i _ l _ j _ _ L _ J L _ L . i i ! 1 — i ! 1 i M ! ! ! : i j 1 ; ! . ! I | ! ! i __l ; i i i i i i V M M 1 j I i i • i I I I ! ! 1 i i ! i i 1 i 1 1 i i \ i ; ! "\; j ; i M i M . 1 , L- ! i ; i . i . i i , i L. 'i .. : j ' _ . ' '- ' 1 I I i 1 1 i \ i i i.A i ' i 1 ! i M M . _ ...J : L I i i i i \ ! i i !\1 M i l ! t i • j_J j 1 j 1 i ! i ! 1 i ;. \ i \ 1 1 1 i V M 1 M i i i M M i M ! — t — i i o ! ! • i 1 i | : 1 i \ • 1  1 ! i i | M i ! M M M ...Gasoline P r i c e • • •—-• ; : — V — V — r — - ! 1 ! i \ ' \ \ \ s • I ! i i — i • 1 1 ! M M ! I ! ; j ; | • i \ I I 1 > \-rfi L i L i ! ! i 1 i i M M M ._.($: per - ! ! : | i ' \ ' 1 \ I | i 1 1 !' 1 i 1 i , — i — : — \ - — J — f i M M | M A M 1 I j 1 I i : ^ ! 1 ; 1. 1 I | ! 1 i I J M i I i  1  \ J i i 1 \ - i i \ ! ..: V l l ! _ i L i i _ i i 1 1 j • l M l ! ] 1 i ! — -V i — t — | ] I 1 I I M | . ! M l i 1 ; ; 1 v j i ^* s v - M i l l 1 1 i . 1 ; i j i \ 1 i 1 I 1 I i ! ! I i T M l • t i : " M M [ s. 1 l 1 4- i i > ! 1 1 1 j i ̂ ! ! i — ! i i i ; i ! I ! 1 1 ,,—-—.i . i i 1 i l l ! 1 i _ • — i -i — 1 I 1 4 — V ! I 1 — - 1 j _ _ « 1 i 1 I 1 i i i • i I 1 ! i I i , - j - i ! 1 t i i i j i — — - 1 1 i - i ' — ! i 1 ; — _i 1 1 ! — ._ i 1 ! i | j — - 1 1 . d- • •!1 1 j - j i ' T + f 1 L. 1 -JL 1 1 1 ' i -1-6- i j. - - -i - » R M 1 1 1 l 1 1 1.1 j _ i i J l i I I i — i is m i TOV'R 'OF TRTPS PER 1 i I A — — I Wee kendj — i - i i i 1 I T j i I • • I ! i i Holiday;Weekends _ j i - j — * . — _ ~ * — — ! 1 ' • I I I ' r j- -1 1 1 1 ! ! I ! i i i I i i 1 i I i ! FIGURE #3 - PAST RESPONSES AND ANTICIPATED FUTURE RESPONSES ,45 TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (330 M i l e subgroup) " 1 1 I i • ! ! ' ! 1 1 i i r ..i.. i ! ; ' 1 i 1 .'! i i _ i i i i I j i _ L I i 1 1 ! i ' i 1 1 M 1 i i i i ! i I M M I I j 1 ' ---- i.... I 1 | | i • i i M M _ i _ L _ i L . I i i i i i ! 1 ! '• ! — i i ' i 1 i : 1 i 1 1 ——j • i. 1 | | i • i t i i ; M M i , , ; , • • ' I >- ! i i i i I ; i | | | I : ! ! I i j : ! i i ! M l ! 1 1 1 • i l i j ! ! i I ' ; ' ; i I > i . : . : 1 !  • 1 r 1 I i j i 1 i ! ! : ' \ \ i M 1 ' ! i • • '  ! ' : i i i I i !' i ' ! i 1 i 1 !  1 I : ; : : j ! , ; i 1 I 1 | | • ' i • j * ! 1 ' i i i ! i j i i I i I I I ! 1 I I I | ; ! i : ; ! ' i :  1 ! i . • i ! 1 i i i i ! l i 1 I i 1 1 i : | ! 1 - i ! _ ' "A" i "I V 1 i i ! i 1 1 i ! 1 i '• 1 ! ! I i v 1 1 i ! : i ( I 1 i 1 1 ! ! ! I i 1 1 • i ! i \ s • i | | j. i [ j 1 j ! ; j i I • i \ i i i ! ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 : I ' : 1 j \ ! ^ ! i •! J i u 1 1 i i ! i ! ; — , — ! 1 ! — - R \ ! \ - \ ! j i \ r j M i • i '! i : • — 1 \ i \ i j 1 i ! j \ ; . 1 i ' • i M ! ' ' ' M M i 1 V I ! \ ! ! i l l ! I j i ! • | i • i \ 1 1 A 1 1 1 I i i 1 ! j 1 • •' : : i i . i ' — i — • — | | — \ \ i v r • j i i A ! ! ! :\ ! i i i !• ' ! I i i i 1 M • i ! 1 ! ! I i l i \ 1 1 " v I I 1 ! i 1 i : i 1 1 M M M M — G a s o l i n e i i i M \ M V ! i [ I : j M M M i — t r i c e - — ($ : per t i i\rr 1 \ ! i i ! i I 1 i 1 ! . M M M ~ T \ \ I i r\. : j L_\-_L ! I A j 1 ! 1 i : . i 1 M • i ; i — — — g a i 11 on-; - i ! 1 1 i —!—< i V i k : i ! M M i i 1 1 i > 1 M M i ! i \ I ! i l i ! V 1 . _:.v !. 1 ! 1 1 — i r j V 1 ! • 1 i * \ i i 1 i ; \ ! i i 1 1 i ! , , t T \ — ( >• . l _ L _ 4 _ A— — — — *»— i i M^ 1 — i i I i ! — 1 i I- j I i ! T i i i ! 1 - I _ i 1 I I 1 1 . i i 1 1 | ! j i 1 i i ! ! 1 1 1 1 i | ! i i i 111 I" j 1 I L. 4 - 1 — ; i J i 1— - IN i >!-~i [ M ! E J - ~ Weekends ! j ! ! i 1 i 1 1 — r Holiday_Weekends_..j J L ._ I — | I | ] 1 1 1 1 i i i — i — I i ~t—,—t— i 1 1 I 1 1 . ! i i' j i I 1 FIGURE # T - PAST RESPONSES TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (70 M i l e subgroup) - — - r r - 1 1 ..!. — i 1 — - — • | i _L 1- j - 1— x . ~ i ! ! j i_ j I —1—.j_ 1 i ! 1 —1—j- i r i | | 1 1 — » 1 i ' ! . ! '. i" ! ' i ! 1 i ! 1 i ! 1 ; 1 . 1 . ;_. j-~1 j i 1 1 ! j I | r " ! i ! i . i i i 1 | j M M ! - . I i i I '• 1 ; \ '• '. t i 1 i : I i 1 1 1 i 1 i • M M ! ! 1 1 ' i i i ! ! 1 r i M i i. M — i 1 ! f I i j ! ! i M : : 1 ! i i 1 1 i M 1 ! \ ; ; ! i i ; ; : ; ; i i- 1 | I i | 1 i M ! ' M M M M i ! ; M M ! 1 i I 1 i • 1 ! 1 j ' 1 1 ' ' 1 ! I ' | I j 1 1 ' ! ' . .J. J U _ — i J L : 1 - i J-...I M : : ; , ...i L ! _ 4 i — r — i ! ! 1 1 I ; 1 ! : 1 i M . ; . __\ \ -i j ; —p>~ i 1 M M 1 M ! M : . i ! ! • i ! ! 1 i i 1 1 1 • -j 1 M M •i i 1 M M M 1 J . : r~— 1 1 1 j I . i 1 l ! ; i 1 ; t — j ~ ! .. 1 ; 1 M M \ 1 M j i 1 ! . 1 1 1 i j . • : i l l 1 : ! : ^ • 1 ; • 1 i • j i • I I I ' M M M M M • i ; j i i 1 i ! ! 1 i I 1. i i ! i i i ' .1 • . M ! I i l l ! j ; ; ; ' i | | . i ; , : j ! ! ! i 1 i 1 ! ! M M M M : : M i : r i I i T l t r ' M M — ! ! ! I i : M • I — l 1 i ; j | i i I '• | ! I ! i I ] j i M i - ] 1 . " i r — I ; | ' l l ! ! ! 1 i 1 i 1 L : . i ! : ' ; : j i i . (Taft'ol i n e ! i ! i I ! • i i i I i i i i i 1 i ; j 1 P r i c e - r r r M M ! i ! M ! '• i i | j j . _ J _ L j - — i i I 1 i " I T ! 1 i i • ! i ' i 1 1 1 p e r r - -gal-lon-)i— 1 — j ...... ! . . .. 1 1 1 ! ! . : ! ! • I I I ! M M M ! j i • 1 i j i 1 ! i i M . i ..-! — 1 1 i • j ! 1 i 1 M 1 M T i ... | .. 1 i i • ! 1 • i . '; .1 ! i' I — i ! i 1 \ 1 1 1 r 1 j j i I 1 , ] — — i — — 1 r 1 1 1 i 1 1 — \ i 1 • i — \ ! !• -A — 1 n — | ! — t 1 i  . J- - i — ! 1 1 i 1 J ! 1 1 1 i 1 ! - 1 1 j ! i 1 I M M - 1 "4"<Y~: . — 2 | | 1 ! k \ j I I I - ! 1 6 i 1 . P E R J Y E A R i t j i. i1 j „ : i j j I d ( | 1 D U M B E R O F ; T R I P S 1 - Weekends i j j i i — r . _ . T i l ! - • i—r H o l i d a y Weelcenc 1 1 1 1 1 ! M i l l M l ! L _ L 48 w i l l behave d i f f e r e n t l y from how they have i n the p a s t . T h i s m o d e r a t i o n i n r e s p o n s e t o g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a t h i g h e r p r i c e l e v e l s i s t o be e x p e c t e d s i n c e as c o t t a g e use approaches z e r o the c o t t a g e r w i l l p r o b a b l y become more aware o f h i s c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t i n the c o t t a g e and w i l l want to g e t some use out o f i t even i f i t i s e x p e n s i v e t o do so ( a l s o a t t h i s p o i n t i t w i l l o b v i o u s l y be v e r y d i f f i c u l t to s e l l the c o t t a g e ) . As p r i c e s become s u f f i c i e n t l y h i g h the c o t t a g e r w i l l be m o t i v a t e d t o t a k e s t e p s o t h e r than m e r e l y making fewer t r i p s i n o r d e r t o economize (use s m a l l e r c a r s , c a r p o o l s , e t c . ) . Thus some mo d e r a t i o n i n r e s p o n s e as h i g h e r p r i c e l e v e l s a r e reached i s t o be e x p e c t e d . F o r purposes o f comparison F i g u r e s #5 and #6 r e l a t e t o the Vancouver I s l a n d r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s t o the r e c o r d e d r e s p o n s e among the m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s . The p r i m a r y v a l u e o f t h i s p a r t o f the a n a l y s i s ( a n t i c i p a t e d r e s p o n s e s t o f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s ) has been t o show t h a t o u r p a s t p r i c e response d a t a cannot be e x t r a p o l a t e d i n d e f i n i t e l y on a s t r a i g h t l i n e b a s i s . I t p r o v i d e d an e s t i m a t e o f how f a r p a s t d a t a can be e x t r a - p o l a t e d w i t h r e l i a b i l i t y as w e l l as an i n d i c a t i o n o f what t o e x p e c t beyond t h i s p o i n t . F o r t u n a t e l y the response t o q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g p a s t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s and t o the Vancouver I s l a n d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s was q u i t e good and t h e r e f o r e i t i s p o s s i b l e t o use a l l t h r e e s o u r c e s o f d a t a to p r o j e c t the e f f e c t s o f the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g i n g . T h i s i s v e r y f o r t u n a t e s i n c e i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o come t o c o n c l u s i o n s w i t h o u t r e l y i n g too h e a v i l y on d a t a g e n e r a t e d by answers t o h y p o t h e t i c a l q u e s t i o n s . FIGURE #5 - RESPONSES OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MAINLAND • 49 COTTAGERS TO INCREASED TRAVEL COSTS (weekends) FIGURE #6 - RESPONSES OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MAINLAND "50 COTTAGERS TO INCREASED TRAVEL COSTS ( h o l i d a y weekends) 51 T a b l e s #15, #16, and #17 show t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s t o a range o f r e a c t i o n s t o f u t u r e energy s h o r t a g e s . Many r e s p o n d e n t s seem to p r e f e r a s t r a t e g y o f s w i t c h i n g t o a s m a l l e r c a r and c o n t i n u i n g p r e s e n t d r i v i n g p a t t e r n s . T h i s i s to be e x p e c t e d s i n c e i t would i n v o l v e the l e a s t d i s r u p t i o n o f t h e i r c o t t a g i n g h a b i t s . The use o f p u b l i c t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h the c o t t a g e d i d not seem t o be a v e r y p o p u l a r sug- g e s t i o n but s e v e r a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e s had comments m e n t i o n i n g t h a t t h e r e was no p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a i t o n t o t h e i r c o t t a g e . Thus i t i s n o t c l e a r i f the reason f o r the n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e t o the i d e a o f p u b l i c t r a n s p o r - t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e s i s because o f a d i s l i k e f o r p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n to c o t t a g e a r e a s o r because i t i s p r e s e n t l y n o t p o s s i b l e t o t a k e p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o the c o t t a g e . No s i n g l e s t r a t e g y f o r d e a l i n g w i t h the c o n f l i c t between g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g and c o t t a g e use was a c c e p t e d by a l l . R a t h e r i t appears t h a t most p e o p l e were r a t h e r u n c e r t a i n about which o f the a l t e r n a t i v e s they would f a v o u r and t h a t a t y p i c a l r e a c t i o n would p r o b a b l y combine a l l f o u r . T a b l e #18 shows v a r i o u s d e t a i l s about the t r i p t o the c o t t a g e such as s i z e o f c a r , number o f p e o p l e i n the c a r f o r the t r i p , average gas . m i l e a g e , e t c . , broken down by subgroup. I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h o s e c o t t a g e r s i n the most d i s t a n t subgroup use the l a r g e s t c a r s and con- s e q u e n t l y g e t p o o r e r gas m i l e a g e than t h o s e w i t h c o t t a g e s n e a r e r t o Vancouver. The d a t a c o l l e c t e d a l s o shows t h a t the use o f s m a l l e r c a r s i s a d i s t i n c t p o s s i b i l i t y f o r many o f the c o t t a g e r s . (See T a b l e #18) The e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h i s s t a t e m e n t i s t h a t i n a l l t h r e e subgroups t h e r e 52 TABLE #15 RESPONSES TO THE IDEA OF FUTURE GASOLINE RATIONING 70 MILE SUBGROUP 8. In the ev e n t o f a f u t u r e energy s h o r t a g e which r e s u l t e d i n g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g , which o f the f o l l o w i n g would you do? P l e a s e check under the a p p r o p r i a t e column. DEFINITELY PROBABLY UNLIKELY 4 9 7 Co n t i n u e t o use a c a r as r e g u l a r t r a n s p o r - t a t i o n i n the c i t y and d i s c o n t i n u e ( o r d r a s - t i c a l l y r e d uce the number o f t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e . 2 4 Use p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h t he c o t - t a g e . 2 2 11 S w i t c h p r i m a r i l y t o p u b l i c t r a n s i t ; i n the c i t y and c o n t i n u e t o d r i v e t o y o u r c o t t a g e . 4 8 7 Sw i t c h t o a s m a l l e r , more economical c a r and c o n t i n u e p r e s e n t d r i v i n g p a t t e r n s . 0 0 0 O t h e r , p l e a s e s p e c i f y TABLE #16 RESPONSES TO THE IDEA OF FUTURE GASOLINE RATIONING 240 MILE SUBGROUP 8. In the event o f a f u t u r e energy s h o r t a g e which r e s u l t e d i n g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g , which o f the f o l l o w i n g would you do? P l e a s e check under the a p p r o p r i a t e column. DEFINITELY PROBABLY UNLIKELY 3 4 . 7 Co n t i n u e t o use a c a r as r e g u l a r t r a n s p o r - t a t i o n i n the c i t y and d i s c o n t i n u e ( o r d r a s - t i c a l l y reduce the number o f ) t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e . 0 0 10 Use p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h the c o t t a g e . 3 7 4 Swi t c h p r i m a r i l y t o p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n the c i t y and c o n t i n u e t o d r i v e t o y o u r c o t t a g e . 2 10 2 Sw i t c h t o a s m a l l e r , more economical c a r and c o n t i n u e p r e s e n t d r i v i n g p a t t e r n s . 0 0 0 Oth e r , p l e a s e s p e c i f y 53 TABLE #17 DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONSES TO THE IDEA OF FUTURE GASOLINE RATIONING - 330 MILE SUBGROUP 8. In the e v e n t o f a f u t u r e energy s h o r t a g e which r e s u l t e d i n g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g , which o f the f o l l o i w n g would you do? P l e a s e check under the a p p r o p r i a t e column. DEFINITELY PROBABLY UNLIKELY 5 7 10 Co n t i n u e t o use a c a r as r e g u l a r t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n i n the c i t y and d i s c o n t i n u e ( o r d r a s t i c a l l y r e duce t he number o f ) t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e . 1 2 11 Use p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h t he c o t t a g e . 2 6 7 S w i t c h p r i m a r i l y t o p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n the c i t y and c o n t i n u e t o d r i v e t o y o u r c o t t a g e . 5 10 4 S w i t c h t o a s m a l l e r , more economical c a r and c o n t i n u e _ p r e s e h t d r i v i n q p a t t e r n s . 0 1 0 Oth e r , p l e a s e s p e c i f y 54 TABLE #18 DETAILS ABOUT THE TRIP TO THE COTTATE ( D i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) NUMBER OF PEOPLE NORMALLY 70 MILE 240 MILE 330 MILE IN THE CAR FOR THE TRIP SUBGROUP SUBGROUP SUBGROUP TO THE COTTAGE 2 o r l e s s 14 13 11 3 - 4 10 7 15 5 o r more 3 0 0 SIZE OF CAR USED FOR THE TRIP TO THE COTTAGE F u l l s i z e c a r ( o r t r u c k ) 18 12 20 Compact 5 4 3 Subcompact 4 4 3 GAS MILEAGE OBTAINED ON THE TRIP TO THE COTTAGE Mean 20.6 21.9 17.9 55 a r e a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f res p o n d e n t s who r e p o r t o n l y two pe o p l e t r a v e l l i n g to the c o t t a g e i n a f u l l s i z e d c a r . The s w i t c h t o s m a l l e r c a r s i s l e s s o f a p o s s i b i l i t y f o r the c o t t a g e r s a t the most d i s t a n t a r e a (330 m i l e ) s i n c e t h e y g e n e r a l l y have more passenge r s on t h e t r i p . ( T h i s i s r e a s o n a b l e s i n c e i t i s a newer c o t t a g e a r e a [ s e e T a b l e 30] and t h e r e f o r e i t i s more l i k e l y to be used by f a m i l i e s w i t h c h i l d r e n than a r e t h e o t h e r a r e a s . ) The c o t t a g e r s a t the two c l o s e r a r e a s have a l r e a d y made more o f a s w i t c h t o s m a l l e r , more economical c a r s than have thos e a t t h e 330 m i l e a r e a . T a b l e s #15 - #17 i n d i c a t e t h a t u s i n g s m a l l e r c a r s t o r e a c h t he c o t t a g e was r e g a r d e d w i t h about equal f a v o u r by a l l t h r e e g r o u p s . How- ev e r t h i s i s r e a s o n a b l e s i n c e more o f the c o t t a g e r s a t the c l o s e r a r e a s a l r e a d y use sm a l l c a r s and thus t h e i r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o s w i t c h a r e re d u c e d . The o t h e r major porblem w i t h s w i t c h i n g t o s m a l l e r c a r s f o r t r a v e l t o c o t t a g e s i s t h a t many pe o p l e f e e l t h a t s m a l l c a r s a r e s u i t e d o n l y f o r s h o r t t r i p s and a r e not d e s i r e a b l e f o r l o n g highway t r i p s (200- 300 m i l e s ) . T h i s w i l l tend t o encourage the use o f s m a l l e r c a^s where they a r e needed l e a s t and d i s c o u r a g e i t where they a r e needed most. T a b l e #19 shows the c o t t a g e r ' s e s t i m a t e s o f the v a l u e o f t h e i r c o t t a g e s . The t r e n d here i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t o f income where the two c l o s e s t a r e a s (Vancouver I s l a n d and C u l t u s Lake) have h i g h e r average v a l u e s than do the more d i s t a n t a r e a s . 56 TABLE #19 CURRENT MARKET VALUE OF COTTAGES AS ESTIMATED BY THE OWNERS ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) CURRENT MARKET VALUE VANCOUVER 70 MILE 240 MILE 330 MILE (COTTAGE AND LOT) ISLAND SUBGROUP SUBGROUP SUBGROUP SUBGROUP Less than $5,000 $10,000 0 0 0 0 $ 5,000 - 0 1 3 2 $10,000 - $15,000 0 3 4 2 $15,000 - $20,000 4 6 6 6 $20,000 - $30,000 4 7 3 10 $30,000 - $40,000 6 7 3 1 $40,000 + 9 3 2 3 Mean $32,200 $25,600 $20,800 $22,900 57 G a s o l i n e C o s t s i n R e l a t i o n t o Othe r C o s t s o f C o t t a g i n g T a b l e #20 compares g a s o l i n e c o s t s t o c o t t a g e v a l u e s . A t the p r e s e n t time i t appears t h a t t r a v e l c o s t s a r e q u i t e s m a l l i n comparison t o the t o t a l c o s t o f owning the c o t t a g e . As a rough a p p r o x i m a t i o n i t can p r o b a b l y be s a i d t h a t t a x e s , i n s u r a n c e , and maintenance f o r the c o t t a g e w i l l be i n the range o f $250 - $450 per annum. ( T h i s e s t i m a t e i s based on p e r s o n a l communications w i t h c o t t a g e r s i n t h e C a r i b o o a r e a and on American d a t a f o r c o t t a g i n g expenses) (Ragatz 1969, p. 117) For c o t t a g e r s i n the two more d i s t a n t subgroups a u t o m o b i l e c o s t s o t h e r than g a s o l i n e ( i . e . maintenance, d e p r e c i a t i o n , e t c . ) which a r e a t t r i b u t a b l e to t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e w i l l p r o b a b l y be i n the $200-$300 per y e a r range. ( T h i s i s based on 4000 m i l e s o f d r i v i n g per y e a r w i t h v e h i c l e d e p r e c i a t i o n and maintenance c o s t s o f 5<f and 7.5<£ per m i l e r e s p e c t i v e l y . The 4000 m i l e s o f d r i v i n g r e p r e s e n t s 7 t r i p s p e r y e a r to a c o t t a g e s l i g h t l y under 300 m i l e s away.) T a b l e #19 i n d i c a t e s t h a t t he average c o t t a g e v a l u e s a r e s l i g h t l y o v e r $20,000. Assuming t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e t o i n v e s t t h i s money else w h e r e a t a 10 p e r c e n t r a t e o f i n t e r e s t a t f i r s t g l a n c e i t appears t h a t t h e r e would be an annual o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f about $2000 i n c u r r e d by owning the c o t t a g e . However the t r u e v a l u e o f t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i s much l e s s s i n c e c o t t a g e s g e n e r a l l y a p p r e c i a t e i n v a l u e . During p e r i o d s i n which the v a l u e s o f c o t t a g e s a r e r i s i n g q u i c k l y t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t would approach z e r o . I t s h o u l d a l s o be noted t h a t i n c r e a s e s i n t r a v e l c o s t s can a l s o i n c r e a s e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s t o the e x t e n t t h a t t he i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s reduce demand f o r c o t t a g e s and s u b s e q u e n t l y reduce the r a t e o f t h e i r a p p r e c i a t i o n . 5S TABLE #20 GASOLINE COSTS AND COTTAGE VALUES (330 M i l e Subsample) RESPONDENT NUMBER OF GASOLINE INCOME VALUE OF GASOLINE TOTAL TRIPS PER MILEAGE COOO's) COTTAGE COST PER ANNUAL YEAR* (M.P.G.) ('000 o f $) TRIP $ GASOLINE COST 1 15 16 20-30 15-20 35 560 2 6 13 20-30 10-15 43 260 3 5 18 15-20 15-20 31 155 4 5 20 15-20 20-30 28 140 5 3 16 40+ 20-30 35 105 6 8 15 40+ 20-30 37 296 7 6 15 10-15 15-20 37 222 8 3 18 10-15 10-15 31 93 9 4 15 10-15 5-10 37 148 10 8 13 ? ? 43 344 11 3 12 10-15 30-40 27 141 12 6 15 15-20 5-10 37 222 13 3 25 30-40 20-30 22 66 14 4 12 20-30 20-30 47 188 15 6 22 20-30 20-30 26 156 16 13 20 10-15 20-30 28 364 17 3 15 15-20 40+ 37 111 18 ' 6 15 15-20 40+ 37 222 19 20 35 20-30 10-20 16 320 20 5 16 15-20 20-30 35 175 21 6 25 15-20 15-20 22 135 22 11 28 ? 20-30 20 220 Mean 6. .6 17.9 21,700 22,900 $33.23 $219 • I n c l u d e s weekends, h o l i d a y weekends, and v a c a t i o n s . 59 Thus a t the p r e s e n t time the a verage annual g a s o l i n e c o s t f o r c o t t a g e s i n the 330 m i l e subgroup i s about one q u a r t e r o f the t o t a l annual c o s t o f owning the c o t t a g e , ( a s i d e from o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t ) W h ile i t i s t r u e t h a t g a s o l i n e c o s t s a r e not the l a r g e s t c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o t t a g i n g a t t h i s time they a r e becoming e v e r more i m p o r t a n t . I t a l s o must be remembered t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n any o f the c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o t t a g i n g w i l l f o r c e o u t some p a r t i c i p a n t s . A n a l y s i s o f P r o f i l e Data The a n a l y s i s up t o t h i s p o i n t has d e a l t w i t h d a t a d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to c o t t a g i n g and t r a v e l c o s t . The remainder o f the a n a l y s i s w i l l be con- c e r n e d w i t h o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and r e s p o n s e s o f the c o t t a g e r s i n the sample. F i r s t o f a l l i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o compare the average incomes o f the c o t t a g e r s i n the Vancouver I s l a n d sample t o t h o s e o f t h e c o t t a g e r s i n the m a i n l a n d subgroup. T h i s i s i m p o r t a n t s i n c e when c o n c l u s i o n s a r e b e i n g drawn the p a s t b e h a v i o u r o f Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s w i l l be used as a guide to e s t i m a t i n g the f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r o f m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s . O b v i o u s l y i f t h e r e a r e any s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n income between groups t h e s e s h o u l d be b r o u g h t o u t so t h a t t h e i r e f f e c t s can be a c c o u n t e d f o r . T a b l e #21 shows d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a verage f a m i l y income f o r each subgroup. I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t the two c o t t a g e a r e a s most d i s t a n t from Vancouver a r e p o p u l a t e d w i t h s l i g h t l y lower income c o t t a g e r s than e i t h e r the C u l t u s Lake a r e a o f the Vancouver I s l a n d a r e a s sampled. Thus the Vancouver I s l a n d d a t a can be a p p l i e d t o the m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s knowing t h a t t h e i r r e s p o n s e s w i l l be a t l e a s t as g r e a t s i n c e t h e i r incomes a r e s l i g h t l y l o w e r. 60 TABLE 21 DISTRIBUTION OF ANNUAL FAMILY INCOME BY SUBGROUP FAMILY INCOME VANCOUVER 70 MILE 240 MILE 330 MILE ISLAND l e s s than $5,000 2 _ _ _ $ 5,000 - $10,000 2 4 3 -$10,000 - $15,000 3 1 6 4 $15,000 - $20,000 1 4 5 9 $20,000 - $30,000 5 7 2 6 $30,000 - $40,000 5 4 1 1 $40,000 + 4 4 2 2 Mean $24,600 $24,500 $21,200 $21,800 6T When o c c u p a t i o n and e d u c a t i o n a r e combined w i t h income ( w i t h each b e i n g g i v e n equal w e i g h t ) the average r e s u l t s a r e as f o l l o w s : 70 m i l e subsample - 8.5 240 m i l e subsample - 7.3 (Range o f s c a l e - 0-12 - f o r D e t a i l s see 330 m i l e subsample - 8.1 Appendix 3) Thus w h i l e t h e r e i s some r e v e r s a l i n t r e n d between the two most d i s t a n t subgroups i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t c o t t a t e r s lower i n s o c i a l s t a t u s t r a v e l f a r t h e r t o t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do t h o s e o f h i g h e r s o c i a l s t a t u s . While s t u d i e s have shown t h a t the s o c i a l c l a s s s t r u c t u r e o f c o t t a g i n g as a whole i s b r e a k i n g down ( F i n e and T u t t l e , 1966) t h e r e s t i l l i s some d i s t i n c t i o n between the p r e d o m i n a t i n g c l a s s e s i n s p e c i f i c a r e a s . In our. s u r v e y t h i s has taken the form o f lower c l a s s c o t t a g e r s d r i v i n g f a r t h e r t o t h e i r c o t t a g e . T h i s o f c o u r s e i m p l i e s ( p r i m a r i l y through income e f f e c t s ) t h a t as g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r i s e t he a r e a s most d i s t a n t from Vancouver w i l l p r o b a b l y e x p e r i e n c e a d e c l i n e i n use which i s more than p r o p o r t i o n a l to the d i s t a n c e d i f f e r e n t i a l between t h e s e a r e a s and the c l o s e r ones. In t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s a c h i - s q u a r e d t e s t was used t o i d e n t i f y t he r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c e r t a i n p r o f i l e v a r i a b l e s and the r e s p o n s e t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s . C h i - s q u a r e d i s d e r i v e d as f o l l o w s : 2 ( 0 - E ) ^ C h i - s q u a r e d (X ) = I where 0 = the o b s e r v e d f r e q u e n c y i n a c e l l , E i s the e x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c y i n a c e l l and i i s the t o t a l number o f c e l l s , ( i . e . i n t h e f i r s t c e l l o f T a b l e #22A where 0 = 7 , E = 8 x 12/21 = 4.5) C h i - s q u a r e d i d e n t i f i e s t he r e l a t i o n s h i p between two nominal s c a l e d v a r i a b l e s by comparing o b s e r v e d v a l u e s t o c a l c u l a t e d 62 j o i n t p r o b a b i l i t i e s ( E ) . I f o b s e r v e d v a l u e s (0) a r e equal t o c a l c u l a t e d j o i n t p r o b a b i l i t i e s (E) i n a l l c e l l s then t h e r e i s no r e l a t i o n s h i p between the two v a r i a b l e s . C o n v e r s e l y s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s between observed (0) and e x p e c t e d v a l u e s (E) imp l y t h a t t he two v a r i a b l e s a r e r e l a t e d . Thus i n T a b l e #22 a h i g h v a l u e o f c h i - s q u a r e d i n d i c a t e s t h a t r e s p o n s e to f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s i s s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o income. The s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s quoted show the p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g the a s s o c i a t e d v a l u e o f c h i - s q u a r e d p u r e l y by chance, ( i . e . f o r T a b l e #22A the c h i - s q u a r e d v a l u e o f 4.75 would o c c u r 5 times o u t o f 100 p u r e l y by chance) T a b l e #21 shows t h a t t h e r e i s a d e f i n i t e r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and re s p o n s e t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s among Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s . As one would e x p e c t t h e h i g h e r income c o t t a g e r s d i d n o t respond to the f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s w i t h as much o f a r e d u c t i o n i n number o f t r i p s as d i d the lower income c o t t a g e r s . T a b l e #22 shows the r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and t o t a l annual number o f t r i p s per y e a r t o the c o t t a g e f o r m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e o f a weak p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and t o t a l annual number o f t r i p s t h i s c annot be c o n s i d e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t . T a b l e #23 shows t h a t t h e r e i s no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p ( i n f a c t t h e r e i s a weak i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p ) between income and response t o g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . T h i s i s i n sharp c o n t r a s t t o the Vancouver I s l a n d d a t a which i s p r o b a b l y more r e l i a b l e due t o the much g r e a t e r magnitude o f the c o s t i n c r e a s e i n t h a t c a s e (and because the f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s o c c u r r e d i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y i n s t e a d o f g r a d u a l l y TABLE #22 FAMILY INCOME AND RESPONSE TO INCREASED FERRY FARES (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup) A. H o l i d a y Weekends Response Less than $20,000 INCOME $20,000 o r More Row t o t a l N e g a t i v e ( r e d u c - t i o n i n # o f t r i p s ) 0 o r + (no change o r i n c r e a s e ) Column t o t a l 7 1 5 8 13 Chi square = 4.75 s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.05 l e v e l 12 9 21 B. Weekends Response Less than $20,000 INCOME $20,000 o r More Row t o t a l N e g a t i v e ( r e d u c - t i o n i n # o f t r i p s ) 6 0 o f + (no change o r i n c r e a s e ) 2 6 7 12 9 Column t o t a l 13 21 Chi square = 1.73 s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.20 l e v e l 64 . TABLE #23 FAMILY INCOME AND-TOTAL NUMBER OF TRIPS TO THE COTTAGE (240 and 330 m i l e subgroups) INCOME Number o f t r i p s p er y e a r (weekends and lo n g weekends) Less than $20,000 $20,000 o r More Row T o t a l 3 o r l e s s 8 5 13 4-6 11 2 13 7 o r more 4 4 8 Column t o t a l 23 11 34 Chi square =2.57 s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.30 l e v e l TABLE #24 FAMILY INCOME AND RESPONSE TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (240 and 330 m i l e subgroups) INCOME Response ( f o r week- ends & h o l i d a y weekends) Less than $20,000 $20,000 o r More Row T o t a l N e g a t i v e ( r e d u c - t i o n i n average number o f t r i p s ) 4 6 10 0 o r p o s i t i v e (no change o r i n c r e a s e ) 15 7 22 Column t o t a l 19 13 32 Chi square = 2.05 s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.20 l e v e l 65 which reduces the p o s s i b i l i t y o f o t h e r f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the o b s e r v e d changes i n amount o f u s e ) . T a b l e s #25 and #26 i n d i c a t e t h a t the l e n g t h o f ownership o f the c o t t a g e i s n o t a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i s e x p l a i n i n g r e s p o n s e t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s . I t was o n l y p o s s i b l e t o c a r r y o u t t h i s a n a l y s i s f o r 2 o f the 4 subsamples but i t i s f e l t t h a t they a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . T a b l e #27 shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s t o a q u e s t i o n r e g a r d i n g r e a s o n s f o r g o i n g to the c o t t a g e . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s o f l i m i t e d i mportance i n r e g a r d t o p r e d i c t i n g p r i m a r y e f f e c t s o f h i g h e r g a s o l i n e p r i c e s on c o t t a g i n g but i s v e r y u s e f u l w i t h r e g a r d t o secon- d a r y e f f e c t s . F o r example s i n c e " g e t t i n g o u t o f t h e c i t y " was r a t e d as b e i n g an i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n f o r going to the c o t t a g e by many o f the r e s p o n d e n t s the development o f a d d i t i o n a l r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s i n o r near c i t i e s w i l l n o t be a s a t i s f a c t o r y a l t e r n a t i v e t o c o t t a g i n g . S i m i l a r l y the r e l a t i v e l y lower degree o f importance a t t a c h e d t o the c o t t a g e being "good f o r c h i l d r e n " i m p l i e s t h a t improved c h i l d r e n ' s r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n the c i t i e s w i l l not be an e f f e c t i v e s u b s t i - t u t e f o r c o t t a g i n g . On the o t h e r hand i t appears t h a t a t l e a s t f o r some o f the c o t t a g e r s t h a t a d d i t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o engage i n o u t - door a c t i v i t i e s c l o s e r t o t h e i r homes would a t l e a s t be a p a r t i a l sub- s i t t u t e t o u s i n g t h e i r c o t t a g e . T a b l e #28 ( D i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s t o : What d i d you do i n y o u r s p a r e time b e f o r e you had y o u r c o t t a g e ? ) i s a l s o i n t e n d e d f o r use i n s u g g e s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o t t a g i n g a t l o n g d i s t a n c e s from Vancouver. I t does p r o v i d e an i d e a o f what o t h e r types o f r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s might be p o p u l a r w i t h c o t t a g e r s . A l l 66 TABLE #25 LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP OF THE COTTAGE AND RESPONSE TO FERRY FARE INCREASES (Weekends & H o l i d a y weekends) Length o f Ownership Response 9 Years o r Less 10 Years o r more Row T o t a l N e g a t i v e ( r e d u c t i o n i n use) 5 8 13 0 o r p o s i t i v e (no change o r i n c r e a s e ) 5 5 10 Column T o t a l 10 13 23 c h i square = 0.37 s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.60 l e v e l TABLE #26 LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP OF THE COTTAGE AND RESPONSES TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (weekend, and h o l i d a y weekends) Length o f Ownership Response 9 Years o f Less 10 Years o r more Row T o t a l N e g a t i v e 4 2 6 0 o r p o s i t i v e 5 7 12 Column T o t a l 9 9 18 c h i square = 0 . 8 3 s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.40 l e v e l 67 TABLE #27 REASONS FOR GOING TO THE COTTAGE ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) 70 MILE SUBGROUP 9. Why do you go t o y o u r c o t t a g e ? Rate each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g as t o t h e i r i m p o r t a n c e . Very Important Important Not Important 11 6 3 Good f o r c h i l d r e n 9 8 3 I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t 5 6 7 Sense o f r o u g h i n g i t , b e i n g c l o s e t o n a t u r e 19 5 0 R e l a x a t i o n 10 0 0 To engacje i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s 15 6 2 Get o u t o f the c i t y 1 1 0 Other - 240 MILE SUBGROUP 9. Why do you go to y o u r c o t t a g e ? Rate each o f the f o l l o w i n g as t o t h e i r i m p o r t a n c e . Very Important Important Not Important 6 1 3 Good f o r c h i l d r e n 9 6 0 I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t 3 9 0 Sense o f r o u g h i n g i t , b e i n g c l o s e t o n a t u r e 11 6 0 R e l a x a t i o n 6 8 1 To engage i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s 6 7 1 Get o u t o f the c i t y 1 1 0 Other - 330 MILE SUBGROUP 9. Why do you go to y o u r c o t t a g e ? Rate each o f the f o l l o i w n g as t o t h e i r i m p o r t a n c e . Very Important Important Not Important 1 9 2 Good f o r c h i l d r e n 11 9 0 I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t 6 9 0 Sense o f r o u g h i n g i t , b e i n g c l o s e t o n a t u r e 11 9 0 R e l a x a t i o n 10 10 0 To engage i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s 11 9 0 Get o u t o f the c i t y ^ 2 2 0 Other - 68 TABLE #28 ACTIVITIES ENGAGED IN PRIOR TO COTTAGING 70 MILE SUBGROUP Can you r e c a l l what you d i d i n y o u r s p a r e time ( t i m e which you now spend a t y o u r c o t t a g e ) b e f o r e you had y o u r c o t t a g e ? Check more than one i f n e c e s s a r y . 8 v i s i t e d l o c a l parks o r r e c r e a t i o n a r e a s ( n o t o v e r n i g h t ) 9 camping 6 v i s i t e d f r i e n d s 7 r e l a x i n g a t home 3 b o a t i n g 6 v i s i t e d r e s o r t s 7 o t h e r ( p l e a s e e x p l a i n ) 240 MILE SUBGROUP Can you r e c a l l what you d i d a t y o u r c o t t a g e ) b e f o r e you n e c e s s a r y . 3 v i s i t e d l o c a l parks o r 10 camping 3 v i s i t e d 4 b o a t i n g 7 v i s i t e d i n y o u r s p a r e time ( t i m e which you now spend had y o u r c o t t a g e ? Check more than one i f r e c r e a t i o n a r e a s ( n o t o v e r n i g h t ) f r i e n d s 3 r e l a x i n g a t home r e s o r t s 2 o t h e r ( p l e a s e e x p l a i n ) 330 MILE SUBGROUP Can you r e c a l l what you d i d i n y o u r s p a r e time ( t i m e which you now spend a t y o u r c o t t a g e ) b e f o r e you had y o u r c o t t a g e ? Check more than one i f n e c e s s a r y . 3 v i s i t e d l o c a l parks o r r e c r e a t i o n a r e a s ( n o t o v e r n i g h t ) 15 camping 4 v i s i t e d f r i e n d s 6 r e l a x i n g a t home 4 b o a t i n g 6 v i s i t e d r e s o r t s 3 o t h e r ( p l e a s e e x p l a i n ) 69 t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s cannot be c o n s i d e r e d as s u b s t i t u t e s a t t h i s time o r i n the f u t u r e however s i n c e some o f them i n d i c a t e a l i f e c y c l e t r e n d . For example the h i g h i n c i d e n c e o f camping as a p r e d e c e s s o r t o c o t t a g i n g i n - d i c a t e s t h a t as the f a m i l y grows o l d e r i t t u r n s away from camping and towards the g r e a t e r c o m f o r t s o f c o t t a g i n g . ( a l s o c o t t a g i n g becomes more p o s s i b l e as peak income y e a r s a r e r e a c h e d ) Many o f t h e s e c o t t a g e r s would p r o b a b l y n o t be w i l l i n g t o g i v e up the c o m f o r t s o f c o t t a g i n g and r e t u r n t o camping. R e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h i s Survey t o the E n t i r e Vancouver C o t t a g e F i e l d A l t h o u g h t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t u d y i s i n t e n d e d t o be a s u r v e y o n l y and n o t a s t a t i s t i c a l sample o f the e n t i r e Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d i t i s u s e f u l t o p r e s e n t some i n f o r m a t i o n about the e n t i r e c o t t a g e f i e l d i n o r d e r t o see e x a c t l y where t h i s s u r v e y f i t s i n . T a b l e #29 ( T a y l o r 1973) p r o v i d e s a breakdown o f where V a n c o u v e r i t e s have t h e i r c o t t a g e s and the approximate t r a v e l d i s t a n c e t o them. The sample does c o v e r a . r e p r e s e n t a t i v e range i n terms o f l e n g t h o f t r i p from home to c o t t a g e . I t a l s o c o v e r s two o f the f o u r major l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e a r e a s f r e q u e n t e d by V a n c o u v e r i t e s . The c o t t a g e owner's s u r v e y has a sample o f c o t t a g e r s which a r e q u i t e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the Vancouver c o t t a g i n g p o p u l a i t o n i n terms o f income. The mean f a m i l y income o f c o t t a g e r s s u r v e y e d ( a l l sub samples combined) i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y $23,000 ( i n 1977). The mean f a m i l y income f o r a random sample o f Vancouver c o t t a g e r s i n 1972 was found t o be about $15,000 (1972 d o l l a r s ) . (Vancouver Urban F u t u r e s , 1972) When t h i s i s 70 TABLE #29 RECREATIONAL ACCOMMODATION OWNED BY RESIDENTS OF GREATER VANCOUVER - LOCATION AND DISTANCE FROM VANCOUVER (1972) LOCATION NUMBER OF COTTAGES % OF TOTAL DISTANCE FROM AT EACH LOCATION VANCOUVER L o c a l Mountains 17 8.21 .10 - 30 m i l e s Rural F r a s e r V a l l e y 17 8.21 40 - 100 m i l e s North Washington 31 14.97 40 - 120 m i l e s Mount W h i s t l e r 7 3.38 75 m i l e s Sunshine C o a s t 19 9.18 20 - 80 m i l e s Vancouver I s l a n d 11 5.31 40 - 150 m i l e s G u l f I s l a n d s 31 14.97 30 m i l e s Okanagan 17 8.21 250 - 325 m i l e s C a r i b o o 21 10.15 220 - 500 m i l e s Elsewhere i n B.C. 24 11.59 Other L o c a t i o n s 4 1.96 M i s s i n g Data 8 3.86 T o t a l 207 100.00 i n f l a t e d t o 1977 l e v e l s i t e q u a l s about $22,300 which i s v e r y c l o s e the mean f o r the sample used i n t h i s s t u d y , ( i n f l a t e d by c o s t o f l i v i n g i n d e x ) Thus the d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r can p r o v i d e some i n s i g h t i n t o t he e n t i r e Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d . 72 TABLE #30 LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP OF COTTAGE ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s ) TIME SUBGROUP 70 MILE 240 MILE 330 MILE VANCOUVER ISLAND "I y e a r 0 0 0 0 2-3 y e a r s 2 1 3 4 4-5 y e a r s 3 6 10 0 6-9 y e a r s 4 1 5 2 10 y e a r s 16 9 3 11 73 CHAPTER THREE CONCLUSIONS Gasoline Prices and Reduction in Use of Cottages The f i r s t hypothesis made in this study was that as gasoline prices rise some areas in the Vancouver cottaging f i e l d which are presently popular for cottaging will be rejected as being too expensive to reach. The investigation of this hypothesis dealt primarily with reductions in use due to travel cost increases as opposed to attempting to find a point at which the cottages would no longer be used at a l l . This was done for the following reason: As travel costs rise the market value of those cottages located at a great distance from Vancouver will tend to f a l l . Thus i f travel costs reach near prohibitive levels the value of the cottages will probably have fallen to such an extent that selling them will not be attractive. As was mentioned in the previous chapter three methods of estimation will be combined to draw conclusions about the response of cottagers to gasoline price increases. Figures #7 and #8 show the results of this amalgamation of the three estimation methods (Mainland cottager's response to gasoline price increased, mainland cottager's perceptions of their reactions to future price increases, and Vancouver Island cottager's responses to past price increases.) From the analysis conducted in the last chapter i t can be concluded that gasoline price increases are not likely to be an important factor in determining cottage use for the seventy mile subgroup. 74 With r e g a r d to the 240 m i l e and 330 m i l e subgroups i t can be c o n c l u d e d t h a t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i l l p l a y q u i t e an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g how much t h e s e a r e a s a r e used. In p a r t i c u l a r the f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s s h o u l d be noted: 1) I t appears as i f t h e r e has a l r e a d y been some r e d u c t i o n i n f r e q u e n c y o f use i n r e s p o n s e t o r e c e n t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . 2) The r e d u c t i o n i n f r e q u e n c y o f use w i l l be q u i t e s e v e r e a t f i r s t but i f p r i c e s a r e r a i s e d t o much h i g h e r l e v e l s ($2 - $3.00 per g a l l o n ) the r a t e o f r e d u c t i o n i n use w i l l d e c r e a s e ( t h e demand f o r t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e becomes l e s s e l a s t i c as the number o f t r i p s taken per y e a r approaches z e r o ) . W h ile t h i s c o n c l u s i o n i s based e n t i r e l y on the c o t t a g e r ' s own e s t i m a t e o f how h i s f r e q u e n c y o f use would be a f f e c t e d i t i s backed up t o some e x t e n t by the r e s p o n s e s t o the q u e s t i o n r e g a r d i n g g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g . (See T a b l e s #15-#17) Here the c o t - t a g e r s i n d i c a t e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r a v a r i e t y o f means f o r c o p i n g w i t h the s i t u a t i o n . The r e s u l t s b a s i c a l l y showed t h a t a l l a c t i v i t i e s would be c u t back p a r t i a l l y i n s t e a d o f one b e i n g e l i m i n a t e d . T h i s would su g g e s t a m o d e r a t i o n i n degree o f r e s p o n s e w i t h r e s p e c t t o c o t t a g i n g a c t i v i t y as p r i c e s r e a c h extreme l e v e l s . 3) S i n c e t h e Vancouver I s l a n d d a t a r e p r e s e n t s an a c t u a l r e a c t i o n t o a s u b s t a n t i a l t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e (and n o t answers t o h y p o t h e t i c a l q u e s t i o n s o r r e s p o n s e to a r e l a t i v e l y s mall i n c r e a s e i n t r a v e l c o s t ) i t s h o u l d p r o b a b l y be c o n s i d e r e d as b e i n g the most r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e o f m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r ' s f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r . F o r t h i s r e a s o n F i g u r e #7 and #8 were c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h t h i s d a t a b e i n g g i v e n the most we i g h t i n 75 the middle ranges of travel cost. The past responses of mainland cot- tagers to travel cost increases were considered primarily at the lower end of travel cost with the aticipated responses of these cottagers to increased travel costs being incorporated at the extreme upper reach of travel costs. The other major conclusion which can be drawn in relation to the magnitude of the effects of gasoline price increases on cottage use is that use will decline more markedly at the more distant areas than i t will at the areas closer to Vancouver. This is shown clearly in Table #10 (Chapter 2) where the absolute value of the price elas- t i c i t y of demand for trips to the cottage increases steadily with distance from Vancouver. These values correspond f a i r l y closely with other estimates such as those made by Houthakker and Verleger for the price el a s t i c i t y of demand for gasoline, (short run = -.43, and long run = -.75) It is d i f f i c u l t to make a distinction between the short and the long run with regard to cottaging (non essential nature of the trips, d i f f i c u l t y in selling the cottage i f gasoline prices rise too much, etc.). The major point to note here is simply that the estimates in this study were close to the range recorded by other studies. The distribution of the effects of increased travel costs among the different categories of trips to the cottage (weekend trips, holiday weekend, trips, vacation trips, etc.) should also be considered. As was mentioned earlier there was some confusion regarding weeks of vacation versus number of vacation trips. However the basic trend among a l l subgroups was one of l i t t l e change in amount of extended 76 v a c a t i o n use. A l l sub-groups i n d i c a t e d t h a t h o l i d a y weekend use would be c u t more than normal weekend use i n re s p o n s e t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s which was c o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n s . The e l a s t i c i t i e s ( p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f demand f o r t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e ) f o r weekend and l o n g weekend t r i p s were v e r y s i m i l a r f o r the Vancouver I s l a n d subgroup which i s f e l t to be the most r e l i a b l e . The most r e a s o n a b l e c o n c l u s i o n which can be made from t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s as f o l l o w s : Weekend and h o l i d a y weekend use w i l l d e c l i n e t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y equal degrees i n r e s p o n s e t o a g i v e n i n c r e a s e i n t r a v e l c o s t w h i l e extended v a c a t i o n use w i l l remain c o n s t a n t . The o n l y way i n which extended v a c a t i o n use w i l l be a f f e c t e d by t r a v e l c o s t s i s i f a f a m i l y o f c o t t a g e r s f i n d s t h a t s i n c e weekend and h o l i d a y weekend use has been c u r t a i l e d t o such an e x t e n t t h a t they would r a t h e r d i s p o s e o f the c o t t a g e than use i t o n l y f o r extended v a c a t i o n . Income and L o c a t i o n o f C o t t a g e The second h y p o t h e s i s made i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n was t h a t lower income c o t t a g e r s t r a v e l a g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e t o t h e i r c o t t a g e s ( i n o r d e r to escape h i g h l a n d p r i c e s ) . T h i s was fou n d t o be t r u e i n the a r e a s sampled. A l s o t h e Vancouver I s l a n d p o r t i o n o f the i n v e s t i g a t i o n s u g g e s t s t h a t income i s an i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t r a v e l c o s t , i n c r e a s e s . These f i n d i n g s s u g g e s t t h a t the c o t t a g e r s a t the more d i s t a n t a r e a s w i l l respond t o i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s t o a much g r e a t e r degree ( i . e . a g r e a t e r r e d u c t i o n i n use) than w i l l t h o s e c o t t a g e r s a t a r e a s c l o s e r t o Vancouver, (a g r e a t e r d i f f e r e n t i a l i n r e s p o n s e than what i n c r e a s e d d i s t a n c e a l o n e would s u g g e s t ) I t a l s o s u g g e s t s t h a t the m a i n l a n d 77 c o t t a g e r s a t the two most d i s t a n t a r e a s w i l l e x h i b i t a g r e a t e r r e a c t i o n to i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s than d i d the Vancouver I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s (due t o the income d i f f e r e n t i a l ) . T r a v e l Time and T r a v e l C o s t The t h i r d h y p o t h e s i s made i n t h i s p r o j e c t was t h a t a t the p r e s e n t time the e x t e n t o f Vancouver's c o t t a g e f i e l d i s p r i m a r i l y l i m i t e d by t r a v e l time as opposed t o t r a v e l c o s t whereas i n the f u t u r e t r a v e l c o s t w i l l be the major l i m i t a t i o n . I t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o draw d e f i n i t e c o n c l u s i o n s about t h i s s i n c e both f a c t o r s w i l l p l a y some p a r t i n l i m i t i n g d i s t a n c e s t r a v e l l e d t o c o t t a g e s . By r e l a t i n g the Vancouver I s l a n d r e s u l t s t o t h e m a i n l a n d r e s u l t s i t can be seen t h a t w h i l e the p r i m a r y i n f l u e n c e (on t h e m a i n l a n d a t l e a s t ) on d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d i n s t i l l t r a v e l time the s i t u a t i o n i s c h a n g i n g t o one i n which c o s t i s more impor- t a n t ( i . e . Vancouver I s l a n d t r a v e l c o s t s a r e more s i m i l a r to the 330 m i l e subgroup w h i l e t h e i r t r a v e l time i s c l o s e r to the 240 m i l e subgroup. T h e i r f r e q u e n c y o f use i s s t i l l c l o s e r t o t h e 240 m i l e group b u t i s b e g i n n i n g t o approach t h a t o f the 330 m i l e subgroup ( f o r r e g u l a r week- e n d s ) ) . T h i s s t u d y does show t h a t t r a v e l c o s t i s becoming a v e r y i m p o r t a n t component o f d i s t a n c e i n r e g a r d t o f r e q u e n c y o f use o f c o t - tages ( n o t e the s u b s t a n t i a l r e s p o n s e s i n terms o f r e d u c t i o n i n number o f t r i p s t o both g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s and f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s ) . In a d d i t i o n to the c o n c l u s i o n s which r e l a t e d i r e c t l y t o the e a r l i e r s t a t e d hypotheses t h e r e a r e some a d d i t i o n a l comments which s h o u l d be made. One o f t h e s e i s w i t h r e g a r d t o the p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h i s s t u d y ' s o b s e r v e d e f f e c t s ( o f t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s upon number o f t r i p s t o the 78 c o t t a g e ) b e i n g reduced c o n s i d e r a b l y by a massive s w i t c h o f c o t t a g e r s t o subcompact c a r s . A l t h o u g h as was mentioned e a r l i e r i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d i s t i n g u i s h between the s h o r t run and the l o n g run w i t h r e s p e c t t o demand f o r t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e the f o l l o w i n g breakdown can a t l e a s t be s u g g e s t e d : 1) The s h o r t run - t h i s i n v o l v e s no change i n the c a p i t a l equipment r e q u i r e d f o r c o t t a g i n g ( i . e . the c o t t a g e and c a r ) . 2) The medium run - t h i s time p e r i o d i n v o l v e s k e e p i n g the c o t t a g e but c h a n g i n g t o a s m a l l e r c a r . 3) The l o n g run - both the c o t t a g e and c a r can be d i s p o s e d o f o r t r a d e d f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h i s time p e r i o d . A d d i t i o n a l Comments While i t i s c l e a r t h a t my methods o f e s t i m a t i o n have been based on the f i r s t time p e r i o d i t i s l e s s c l e a r as to how s i g n i f i c a n t the l a s t two time p e r i o d s a r e . I f g a s o l i n e p r i c e s i n c r e a s e q u i c k l y i t i s l i k e l y t h a t l a r g e c a r s w i l l be as d i f f i c u l t t o s e l l as d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s . A l s o the d a t a s u g g e s t t h a t a major s w i t c h t o small c a r s i s u n l i k e l y t o o c c u r a t the most d i s t a n t a r e a s . A l t h o u g h the f e d e r a l government has s a i d t h a t by 1985 the s a l e s w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e m i l e a g e f o r a l l c a r s s o l d i n Canada must be a t l e a s t 33 m i l e s per g a l l o n ( E n e r g y , Mines, and R e s o u r c e s , 1976) i t i s not l i k e l y t h a t the c a r s used by c o t t a g e r s f o r t r a v e l t o t h e i r c o t t a g e w i l l a t t a i n t h a t l e v e l o f p erformance. The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s a r e : 1) I t w i l l be n e a r l y 10 y e a r s a f t e r t h a t d a t e b e f o r e t h a t f i g u r e i s 79 r e a c h e d f o r a l l c a r s on the road due t o the s t o c k o f o l d e r c a r s . 2) C o t t a g e r s a r e g e n e r a l l y m i d d l e and upper income p e o p l e . T h e r e f o r e they w i l l u s u a l l y have two c a r s * one o f which w i l l p r o b a b l y be a sub- compact which g e t s l e s s than 33 m i l e s p er g a l l o n . I t i s l i k e l y ( p a r - t i c u l a r l y f o r thos e c o t t a g e r s who t a k e c h i l d r e n w i t h them, and t h o s e who t r a v e l l o n g d i s t a n c e s ) t h a t t he l a r g e r c a r w i l l be used f o r the t r i p t o the c o t t a g e and s m a l l e r one i n the c i t y . 3) The f i g u r e o f 33 m i l e s per g a l l o n i s a l a b o r a t o r y t e s t r e s u l t o n l y and i s u n l i k e l y t o be a c h i e v e d i n p r a c t i c e . For t h e s e r e a s o n s i t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t a s w i t c h t o s m a l l e r c a r s by c o t t a g e r s would a l t e r t h i s s t u d y ' s p r e v i o u s l y made e s t i m a t e s o f e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on use by a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l amount i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . The c o t t a g e r s a n t i c i p a t e d f u t u r e r e s p o n s e s p r o b a b l y i n c l u d e s t he e f f e c t s o f u s i n g s m a l l e r c a r s and thus shows a d i m i n i s h i n g r e s p o n s e t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e s beyond a c e r t a i n l e v e l . The e f f e c t i s shown i n F i g u r e s #7 and #8. Another i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s the p o s s i b i l i t y o f the use o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t t o r e a c h t h e c o t t a g e . The r e s u l t s s u g g e s t e d t h a t p u b l i c t r a n s i t t o c o t t a g e s would n o t be v e r y p o p u l a r b ut i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h i s was due t o c o t t a g e r s r e a c t i n g t o the p r e s e n t s t a t e o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n t h e i r a r e a and n o t t o the i d e a o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e p u b l i c t r a n s i t arrangements. I t can be s a i d t h a t t r a v e l c o s t i s becoming an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g t he amount o f use which c o t t a g e s r e c e i v e . FIGURE #7 - ESTIMATED RESPONSE TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (330 M i l e Subgroup) i 1 i I I I -l j — ••- ... ! j „ --- - ; - r - — i 1 i ! ..... i j ! L0( i i .... i ; ! .. ... j ! ; • ! 1 ! L ' L . V X . . i i " J L L ; : — * .... _L. .... i i 1 ; i ! \ j | ! ! ! \ L i .! t 1 i 1 i i i i j L _ i _ i I i ; i • 1 ; 1 \ \ \ i ' ' 1 ' : ! ! 90 ; ; 1 : !_ j . 1 v . i. ! i i ; ; i : i 1 ; ! i • ! i \ i i L i \ i \ . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . : , _ ; i • i i : ! • I V : \ .; ! i \ _ _ i : !... I ! j < '• fir • ! i t \ 1 1 r • j j i J , . i i ! ! J 1 * 1 T \ i i ._..!. . ! ! ! ; T i i \ \ : _ i ! ! _ '•. _. i .! .. i : ! 1 '1 • i » ! j v : i 1 v ! L | ! 7C ) ' M i ' : \ i ^ i i • , , I M _ i \ L 1 L i i 1 ! 1 ! • [ r n ! X, ; ; 1 : 6c i \ i ! L L ! ; ; i i i i | ! v • S ! . j ; ! 1 1 ; ! ! i I r ' \ 1 | \ 1 \ i i ! j ! 1 1 i : : ' j . 1 i i • ! v : i. L ! ? i - •• '] ! ! 1 ! : • ; i — ~ — i ; x . ; s ; \ ; . : 1 v ' 1 i .... ! _ _ L _ i . _ •; ; i T ! o t a l • : i i ! i :• i \ i | _ L J ! j. n ._ . _ . . — . . ' .: ! i ' : ! ! ! ! \ i !• .I . i Cost f o r Hoiiday. Weekends ;_ : \ <; •WfiekfindR : 1 !• . - .;_ the t » -\ j -j : ; 1 1 i i ! ; 1 ;• : i i j ; ;• i i ! ; M -j ! — • J - L U ] : ! i i !..! 1 I. 1 i N i ._ • •:_... V •• So i ! ; : i ! i ! " 1 ! L L . ! _ : — - j i i" I i ; i j i 1 ! — — — - j ; . . X ... L .... | _ ! ; _ _ ?.o r ! ! i . . ! .... 10 ! 1 _. I 3- ET 1 PS "P ER c UMBE Oi? 1 HI K ! I'ci' + imotarl •fr,n» > i - • Vn'nnouver-Island- da" Anticipated..Future : 'Responses ;. | . j . j... j j _ FIGURE #8 - ESTIMATED RESPONSE TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICE 81 INCREASES (2^0 M i l e Subgroup) i - r~r 1_.— • 1 i ! ; i j ; i | ! 1 ! —.- ! .....}...._ • : ! ! ' ' r i ! — ...... ...... ! . . . . . ! i •LI "17 L 1 i"' — • ! 'T" j - : " T " i " r r i:" . J . . . .! I ! — • | ii ....... -t i i ....! i L.JL L i - 1 i \ \ 1 i ! 1 i u • ! j i L •L"i • ; ! ,1 ; i : , ! | • , ! : • . : i 1 j ' ! 90 ! y • s » ! — . — — . — i ; I i i ; ! ; ; i : \\ M i ' . . , ; i i ! 1 : j i : ; ; ; • 1 : • : 1 • • ; ! ! ! so • . i i ; 1 ' : j • : * ' i i ; 1 ; ! i - j. | | ; i UU , ; | j 1 : i • 1 \ \\ ' : : : ! : : 1 - ! • ! i ! ! i 1 • ' ; : ! : \' ; . 1 . j ! ; i ! _L Li J _ 1 , ! i ! r i i \ . . : L ... | i - | ! i ; i ! . i i * :_i i • ._....! i I ; | I i J • ! ! ! A_Li_ • \ ! ; . ' ! •_JLJL!_ 9 , i \ ! ; i | i . j 1 . j : ! i . \ i i v : : ~ T I : i ! 6o- • i ! I- V i L:_...:. f — ! • i t ; - . : i \ ^ : v ; j . ...... i ' i j i : i i • • \ '• \ \ \ \ ' , j : • ; ' i !• •- ' ! , • ' ,— ; . ; i i L . i " ' \ ; ~ ,- , ~ ^ ~ i ~ " _ i .v. : —1 : ; \ :. i . r „ . . . , ; . j . .. • • ' i ; . ' i . o - : i i ! i * i _ . _i i... \ I ; \ ! i ! : T o t a l a s o l . i i i ; > ! i | — ^ : G ine • i . , L L \ J . • i l l \ i r ! ! i ! ; Cost io: c p- i i ' • i ; ! i • • ;. i =- -LJ . . ' •  • i i : i : i 0 ; i J L ! ! \ ! ! 1 i i ! : ! i ! * • \ ; \ 4 1 i ! i i h i j » I » ! 1 .... j ! ' _,. ... ... ,. ! i i o- i ! . V ! ! J i !\ 1 : \ - i_ . .... i I " : ' ' : ! ._ 1  \ . . . . . . < • ! ! ] 1 1. _ L ... \ • \ | 1 1 i : .... j .i : ! 20 i ! o ! V • > ! r ; ! ...... : • j i 1 0 1 : i - i i ——. ; •• 1 1 • ! ™ • J — ! | ! » _!>..._ NTIIVI BE I - 1 i OF TRIPS PER EAR —r P a s t Responses — T - r i E s t i m a t e d from ! _ Vancouver" l s i a n a • aata- r i . . . . • — Responses ; i i ! ! ] | ;~!~•' r~ 82 CHAPTER FOUR THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE STUDY TO REGIONAL PLANNING I n d i r e c t E f f e c t s o f G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s In o r d e r t o p l a c e t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n c o n t e x t w i t h r e g a r d t o r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g i t i s f i r s t n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r the se c o n d a r y e f f e c t s which w i l l o c c u r i f i n c r e a s e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e s make some o f Vancouver's p r e s e n t c o t t a g e a r e a s u n p o p u l a r . These s e c o n d a r y e f f e c t s w i l l be i n the form o f i n c r e a s e s i n the demand f o r a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s and o t h e r c o t t a g e s c l o s e t o Vancouver. While none o f the q u e s t i o n s on th e q u e s t i o n n a i r e used i n t h i s s t u d y asked c o t t a g e r s d i r e c t l y what t h e y would do i n s t e a d i f i t became too e x p e n s i v e t o go t o t h e i r c o t t a g e ( t h i s would p r o b a b l y n o t produce m e a n i n g f u l r e s u l t s ) some o f the d a t a which was c o l l e c t e d p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o t h i s q u e s t i o n . When t h i s d a t a i s c o n s i d e r e d ( T a b l e s #27 and #28) i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t i f t h e s e p e o p l e can no l o n g e r a f f o r d t o go t o t h e i r d i s t a n t c o t t a g e t h e y w i l l be l o o k i n g f o r a v e r y s i m i l a r a l t e r n a t i v e ( h i g h v a l u e a t t a c h e d t o g e t t i n g o u t o f the c i t y , r e l a x a t i o n , peace and q u i e t , engaging i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s , and the h i g h i n c i d e n c e o f camping b e i n g an a c t i v i t y p a r t i c i p a t e d i n b e f o r e owning the c o t t a g e . . A l l o f t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h a t a s i m i l a r a c t i v i t y w i l l be sought as a r e p l a c e m e n t f o r c o t t a g i n g ) . I t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t c o t t a g e r s d i s p l a c e d due t o h i g h e r c o s t s f o r g a s o l i n e w i l l be c o n t e n t t o s i t a t home and r e l a x i n t h e i r b a c k y a r d s . These p e o p l e w i l l l o o k e l s e w h e r e t o s a t i s f y d e s i r e s such as t h o s e l i s t e d above. Two major p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t f o r the p r o v i s i o n o f t h e s e t y p e s o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s 83 c l o s e r t o Vancouver: 1) I n t e n s i v e development o f l a n d around s m a l l l a k e s i n o r c l o s e t o t h e Lower M a i n l a n d . T h i s c o u l d be done i n a manner s i m i l a r t o the B l o c k B r o t h e r s 108 m i l e r e c r e a t i o n a l r a n c h o r many o f the r e c r e a t i o n a l developments i n N o r t h e r n Washington where a l a r g e number o f c o t t a g e l o t s near a s m a l l l a k e a r e made a v a i l a b l e . The l o s s i n a t t r a c t i v e n e s s due t o the l o t s b e i n g non w a t e r f r o n t i s u s u a l l y compensated f o r by more i n t e n s i v e l y d e v e l o p e d r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s (such as g o l f c o u r s e s , e t c . ) b e i n g i n c l u d e d . The r e d u c t i o n i n p r i v a c y n o r m a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h e r d e n s i t i e s i s u s u a l l y m i n i m i z e d by i n c r e a s e d a t t e n t i o n t o d e s i g n and l a y o u t . 2) I n c r e a s e d development o f the c o a s t a l r e c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e near Vancouver. T h i s c o u l d take t h r e e forms: (a) S t a n d a r d sea shore c o t t a g e l o t s . (b) Sea s h o r e r e c r e a t i o n v i l l a g e s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e d e s c r i b e d i n s e c t i o n 1 where a l a r g e number o f c o t t a g e l o t s u t i l i z e a s m a l l shore a r e a . (c) Development o f more marina space and marine parks t o encourage weekend s a i l i n g t r i p s i n t h e G e o r g i a S t r a i t a r e a . C o t t a g i n g and P l a n n i n g In o r d e r t o a t t a i n o b j e c t i v e s l i k e t h o s e o u t l i n e d above c o t t a g i n g must be planned f o r on a s c a l e which c o n s i d e r s the l o c a t i o n o f both the c o t t a g e r ' s permanent r e s i d e n c e and h i s c o t t a g e . The p r o v i n c e o f B r i t i s h Columbia does n o t have a comprehensive c o t t a g e p o l i c y . In the p a s t few y e a r s some p o l i c i e s r e l a t i n g t o the development o f crown l a n d f o r 84 c o t t a g e purposes have appeared but t h e s e have been s i t e s p e c i f i c i n scope. No attempts have been made t o d i r e c t Vancouver c o t t a g e r s towards p a r t i c u l a r a r e a s . Vancouver c o t t a g e r s tend t o t r a v e l l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do r e s i d e n t s o f o t h e r l a r g e North American c i t i e s . Friedman and M i l l e r s u g g e s t t h a t f o r most l a r g e American c i t i e s t he r e c r e a t i o n a l f i e l d i s p r e d o m i n a n t l y w i t h i n one hundred m i l e s o f the c i t y c e n t r e . (Friedman and M i l l e r , 1965) A s t u d y o f m e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o c o t t a g e r s a l s o s u g g e s t e d t h a t s h o r t e r t r a v e l d i s t a n c e s were i n v o l v e d t h e r e than i s the c a s e w i t h Vancouver c o t t a g e r s . (Hodge, 1970) When c o n s i d e r i n g the f u t u r e o f the Vancouver c o t t a g i n g f i e l d the f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s s h o u l d be taken i n t o a c c o u n t : 1) Vancouver c o t t a g e r s t r a v e l f a r t h e r t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do c o t t a g e r s i n most o t h e r c i t i e s . 2) Energy c o s t s a r e l i a b l e t o c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e . 3) I n c r e a s e d energy c o s t s w i l l r e s u l t i n a c o n s i d e r a b l e r e d u c t i o n i n c o t t a g e use. (See p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r ) With t h e s e p o i n t s i n mind i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t comprehensive c o t t a g e p o l i c y f o r B r i t i s h Columbia (and p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r the Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d ) i s d e s i r e a b l e i n o r d e r t o m i n i m i z e f u t u r e problems. I t i s a l s o e v i d e n t t h a t the need f o r t h i s s o r t o f p l a n n i n g i s more p r e s s i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o the Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d than i t i s f o r o t h e r l a r g e North American c i t i e s s i n c e the g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d by Vancouver c o t t a g e r s has the f o l l o w i n g i m p l i c a t i o n s : 1) G r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s mean h i g h e r i n i t i a l t r a v e l c o s t s and thus f o r a g i v e n income group a g r e a t e r s e n s i t i v i t y t o i n c r e a s e d c o s t s . 85 2) Due p a r t i a l l y t o the g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s t r a v e l l e d the Vancouver c o t - tage f i e l d i s more d i s p e r s e d than i s t h e case around most o t h e r c i t i e s . T h i s makes the p r o v i s i o n o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t from c i t y t o c o t t a g e even l e s s p r a c t i c a l here than i t i s i n o t h e r p l a c e s . With r e g a r d t o a comprehensive p o l i c y f o r Vancouver's c o t t a g e f i e l d t h e r e a r e two r e l e v a n t time p e r i o d s . S h o r t Run F i r s t o f a l l i n the s h o r t run emphasis s h o u l d be on the c o n t i n u e d a c c e p t a n c e o f a u t o m o b i l e dependant c o t t a g i n g as a r e a s o n a b l e form o f r e c r e a t i o n w i t h attempts b e i n g made t o d i r e c t c o t t a g i n g i n t o l o c a t i o n s somewhat c l o s e r t o Vancouver. There a r e many n a t u r a l f o r c e s a t work i n th e Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d which have the e f f e c t o f d i r e c t i n g the p r o s - p e c t i v e c o t t a g e r t o the i n t e r i o r o f the p r o v i n c e s . Some o f t h e s e a r e as f o l l o w s : T) A p h y s i c a l s h o r t a g e o f l a k e s h o r e a r e a s c l o s e t o Vancouver. 2) A s u n n i e r c l i m a t e i n the i n t e r i o r o f t h e p r o v i n c e . 3) The p r i c e f o r l a n d g e n e r a l l y drops as one t r a v e l s f a r t h e r away from Vancouver. These f o r c e s can be c o u n t e r a c t e d t o some e x t e n t ( e x c e p t f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a t i o n s ) by a c o n c e r t e d e f f o r t a t p l a n n i n g and development. The i n t e n s i v e development o f sm a l l l a k e s near t o Vancouver s u g g e s t e d e a r l i e r c o u l d r e s u l t i n the p r o v i s i o n o f many more c o t t a g i n g oppor- t u n i t i e s c l o s e t o Vancouver. I n c r e a s e d development o f the sea c o a s t r e s o u r c e c o u l d a l s o p r o v i d e more c o t t a g i n g and o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n a l .86 o p p o r t u n i t i e s c l o s e t o Vancouver. I f a c o n c e r t e d and c o o r d i n a t e d e f f o r t i s made many more c o t t a g e r s can be accommodated c l o s e t o t h e i r homes. Some changes i n t h e t y p e o f c o t t a g e s e t t i n g w i l l o c c u r but these can be compensated f o r . The o t h e r advantage o f more i n t e n s i v e c o t t a g e developments i s t h a t t h e y a r e more r e a d i l y a d a p t a b l e t o the use o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t from home t o c o t t a g e than a r e today's d i s p e r s e d c o t t a g e development. The Long Run A l o n g run c o t t a g i n g p o l i c y f o r the Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d c o u l d be one o f d i s c o u r a g i n g f u r t h e r development once a l l p o s s i b l e l o c a l a r e a s a r e d e v e l o p e d i n t e n s i v e l y , ( d i s c o u r a g i n g f u r t h e r d i s t a n t development) At t h a t time emphasis can be p l a c e d on e n c o u r a g i n g use o f a l t e r n a t i v e forms o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o e x i s t i n g a r e a s and on d e v e l o p i n g o t h e r forms o f r e c r e a t i o n as a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o t t a g i n g . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s c o u l d i n c l u d e : 1) More e f f i c i e n t use o f t h e a u t o m o b i l e (more e f f i c i e n t c a r s , o r g a n i - z a t i o n o f c a r p o o l s , e t c . ) 2) P u b l i c t r a n s i t t o i n t e n s i v e l y d e v e l o p e d a r e a s . 3) Combinations o f p u b l i c t r n a s i t and p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s l e f t a t t r a n s i t t e r m i n a l s . A system l i k e t h i s i s p r e s e n t l y used on S a l t s p r i n g I s l a n d where many c o t t a g e r s l e a v e a v e r y o l d c a r a t the i s l a n d f e r r y t e r m i n a l f o r the t r o p from the t e r m i n a l t o t h i e r c o t t a g e . Summary While t h e s e s u g g e s t i o n s may g i v e the i m p r e s s i o n o f c a l l i n g f o r a 87 much g r e a t e r degree o f government i n v o l v e m e n t i n an a c t i v i t y where the p a r t i c i p a n t s may p r e f e r t o be l e f t a l o n e t h i s does not need t o be s o . V a r i o u s l e v e l s o f government a r e i n v o l v e d i n c o t t a g i n g now. R e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s r e g u l a t e developments. In the p a s t the P r o v i n c i a l Lands Branch has been d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n l a k e s h o r e s u b d i v i s i o n s as a d e v e l o p e r . Thus the major change sug g e s t e d here i s s i m p l y t h a t a c o o r d i n a t e d c o t t a g e p o l i c y be d e v e l o p e d which c o n s i d e r s both where the c o t t a g e r comes from ( l o c a t i o n o f permanent r e s i d e n c e ) and where he goes t o ( l o c a t i o n o f c o t t a g e ) . I f t h i s i s done the o b j e c t i v e s sug- g e s t e d here ( o r o t h e r s ) c o u l d be a t t a i n e d w i t h i n the p r e s e n t p l a n n i n g framework o f t h e p r o v i n c e . T h i s s t u d y has shown t h a t i t would be v e r y b e n e f i c i a l t o have a c o o r d i n a t e d c o t t a g i n g p o l i c y f o r the Vancouver c o t t a g e f i e l d . I t has o u t l i n e d an a r e a where f u r t h e r development o f the r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s would be h e l p f u l . T h i s t h e s i s has examined the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and the c o s t o f t r a v e l from the v i e w p o i n t o f an e x i s t i n g c o t t a g e r ( i . e . one who a l r e a d y owns h i s c o t t a g e ) . The p r o s p e c t i v e c o t t a g e r has not been c o n s i d e r e d . Thus the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s f o r the r e c r e a t i o n a l p r o p e r t y market have no t been i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y . I t i s l i k e l y t h a t i n c r e a s e s i n the c o s t o f t r a v e l t o c o t t a g e s w i l l cause t h e v a l u e o f c o t t a g e s t o drop a t the most d i s t a n t a r e a s . C o t t a g e s l o c a t e d c l o s e t o Vancouver w i l l p r o b a b l y r i s e i n v a l u e as t h e demand f o r c o t t a g e s i s s h i f t e d from the more d i s t a n t a r e a s t o the c l o s e r ones. I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t as t r a v e l c o s t r i s e s and c o t t a g e p r i c e s f a l l 88 t h a t t h e t o t a l c o s t o f c o t t a g i n g w i l l remain a p p r o x i m a t e l y c o n s t a n t . I t c o u l d t h e n be su g g e s t e d t h a t i n the l o n g run use o f the c o t t a g e s would change v e r y l i t t l e i n r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s i n g t r a v e l c o s t s . T h i s t h e o r y assumes t h a t c o t t a g e r s t r e a t f i x e d and v a r i a b l e c o s t s i n the same manner. On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s s t u d y i t does n o t appear t h a t t h i s i s the c a s e . F u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the r e a c t i o n s o f c o t t a g e r s t o the d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s a c t i v i t y would be h e l p f u l . I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t he r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s and t he market v a l u e o f c o t t a g e s would be h e l p f u l . A s t u d y based on da t a o f a t l e a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s d u r a t i o n would be d e s i r a b l e i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e : 1) I f t h e r e i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a v e l c o s t s and r e c r e a t i o n a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . 2) What t h a t r e l a t i o n s h i p i s . 3) I f the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s c o n s t a n t or v a r i a b l e o v e r t i m e . F u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the t o t a l c o s t s o f c o t t a g i n g would a l s o be d e s i r a b l e . Research o f t h i s n a t u r e would p r o v i d e a g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the r e s p o n s e s o f c o t t a g e r s t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s . .89 BIBLIOGRAPHY American S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , S u b d i v i d i n g Rural A m e r i c a , r e p o r t t o t he C o u n c i l on Env i r o n m e n t a l Q u a l i t y , Washington. 1976. Atm o s p h e r i c Environment S e r v i c e s , Environment Canada. Monthly Record o f M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O b s e r v a t i o n s , May, 1976 t o August, 1976. B e r n h a r d t , Kenneth L. V a c a t i o n Housing and R e c r e a t i o n Land Development, I n d u s t r i a l Development D i v i s i o n , I n s t i t u t e o f S c i e n c e and T e c h n o l o g y , The U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n , Ann A r b o r , M i c h i g a n , 1973. B i r t w e l l , I a n . Lar g e S c a l e Second Home R e c r e a t i o n Communities i n the P a c i f i c Northwest: P o t e n t i a l f o r Permanent S e t t l e m e n t , School o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U.B.C, 1971. B r i t i s h Columbia Energy Commission. B r i t i s h Columbia's Energy O u t l o o k , 1976-1991 - Volume 1, A p r i l , 1976. B r i t i s h Columbia Energy Commission. Report on M a t t e r s C o n c e r n i n g G a s o l i n e M a r k e t i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1975. Campbell, C.K. An A n a l y s i s o f Shore!and Use and C a p a b i l i t y f o r C o t t a g i n g i n t h e G e o r g i a Lowland o f B r i t i s h Columbia, A.R.D.A. P r o j e c t #16014, 1967. C a r t e r , John P. "Chaos as P o l i c y , " P o l i c y O p t i o n s f o r t h e G a s o l i n e S h o r t a g e , I b e r S p e c i a l P u b l i c a t i o n s , I n s t i t u t e o f B u s i n e s s and Economic R e s e a r c h , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , 1974. C i c c h e t t i , C h a r l e s J . , Anthony F i s h e r , and V. K e r r y Smith. "Economic Models and P l a n n i n g Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n , O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h , V o l . 21, May 1973. Clawson, M a r i o n . Land and Water f o r R e c r e a t i o n , Rand M c N a l l y , C h i c a g o , 1963. Clawson, M a r i o n . Methods o f Measuring t he Demand f o r and V a l u e o f Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n , Resources f o r the F u t u r e , Washington, D . C , 1959. Clawson, M a r i o n , and J a c k K n e t s c h . Economics o f Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n , Resources f o r t h e F u t u r e , Johns Hopkins P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e , 1966. C o l l i n s , John, and W a l t e r Hardwick. Vancouver Urban F u t u r e s P r o j e c t , (raw d a t a ) , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C olumbia, 1972. D a v i s , R o b e r t K. "The V a l u e o f B i g Game H u n t i n g i n a P r i v a t e F o r e s t " , T r a n s a c t i o n s o f the T w e n t y - n i n t h North American W i l d l i f e C o n f e r e n c e , 1963. go Department o f Energy, Mines, and R e s o u r c e s , Government o f Canada. An Energy S t r a t e g y f o r Canada, Ottawa, 1976. F i n e , I.V., and R. T u t t l e . P r i v a t e Seasonal Housing i n Wisconson. Department o f Resource Development, S t a t e o f W i s c o n s i n , 1966. Friedman, John, and John M i l l e r . The Urban F i e l d , J o u r n a l o f the American I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s , November 1965. Hodge, G e r a l d . C o t t a g i n g i n the T o r o n t o Urban F i e l d , U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o Research Paper #29, 1970. Houthakker, H.S., P h i l l i p V e r l e g e r , and Dennis P. Sheehan. "Dynamic Demand A n a l y s e s f o r G a s o l i n e and R e s i d e n t i a l E l e c t r i c i t y " , American J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, May, 1974.1 Houthakker, H.S., and P h i l l i p V e r l e g e r . Paper on E l a s t i c i t y o f Demand f o r G a s o l i n e P r e p a r e d f o r the F o r d F o u n d a t i o n Energy P o l i c y P r o j e c t , 1974. J a a k s o n , R e i n e r . P l a n n i n g Towards an O n t a r i o C o t t a g e P o l i c y , The F o r e s t r y C h r o n i c l e , December, 1974, pages 220-223. K n e t s c h , J a c k . Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n and Water Resources P l a n n i n g , American G e o p h y s i c a l U nion, Washington, D . C , 1974. K n e t s c h , Jack and Robert D a v i s . A Comparison o f Methods f o r R e c r e a t i o n E v a l u a t i o n , i n Water R e s e a r c h , A l l e n Kneese and Stephen Smith e d i t o r s , B a l t i m o r e , Johns Hopkins P r e s s , 1966, page 215. K r u t i l l a , John, and J a c k K n e t s c h . "Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n Economics", The , A n a l s o f the American Academy o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l S c i e n c e , May, 1970. Mead, W a l t e r J . D i s c u s s i o n o f the Houthakker V e r l e g e r and Sheehan paper and o f the Houthakker and V e r l e g e r paper,American J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, May 1974, pages 433-436. Moser, G.A. Survey Methods i n S o c i a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n , W i l l i a m Heineman L t d . , T o r o n t o , 1958. O'Rourke, B a r r y . T r a v e l i n the R e c r e a t i o n a l E x p e r i e n c e - A L i t e r a t u r e Review, i n J o u r n a l o f L e i s u r e R e s e a r c h , S p r i n g 1974. Payne, B r i a n R., R i c h a r d C. Gannon, and L l o y d I r l a n d . The Second Home R e c r e a t i o n Market i n the N o r t h e a s t , U.S. Dept. o f A g r i c u l t u r e , Amherst, M a s s a c h u s s e t t s , 1975. P e a r s e , P e t e r H. "A New Approach t o the E v a l u a t i o n o f Non P r i c e d R e c r e a t i o n a l R e s o u r c e s " , Land Economics, V o l . 44, F e b r u a r y , 1968. P l o t n i k o f f , James. C o t t a g i n g and R e l a t e d S u p p o r t S e r v i c e s , t h e s i s i n the School o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U.B.C, 1970. Ragatz, R i c h a r d Lee. V a c a t i o n Homes - An A n a l y s i s o f the Market f o r Seasonal R e c r e a t i o n a l Housing, Department o f Housing and D e s i g n , C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y , New York, 1969. Ragatz, R i c h a r d L. R e c r e a t i o n a l P r o p e r t i e s : An A n a l y s i s o f the Market f o r P r i v a t e l y Owned R e c r e a t i o n a l L o t s and L e i s u r e Homes, R i c h a r d L. Ragatz A s s o c . , I n c . , Eugene, Oregon, 1974. Rolph, E a r l R. "The Fu e l C r i s i s - I t ' s Causes and I m p l i c a t i o n s " , P o l i c y O p t i o n s f o r t h e G a s o l i n e S h o r t a g e , I b e r S p e c i a l P u b l i c a - t i o n s , I n s t i t u t e o f B u s i n e s s and Economic R e s e a r c h , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , 1974. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. Canadian S t a t i s t i c a l Review, O c t o b e r . 1976. T a y l o r , S. M a r t i n . Vancouver Urban F u t u r e s P r o j e c t - B i o g r a p h i c a l and B e h a v i o u r a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Owners and Non Owners o f R e c r e a t i o n a l Accommodation i n G r e a t e r Vancouver, U.B.C, 1973. Vickerman, Roger. "The Demand f o r Non Work T r a v e l " , J o u r n a l o f T r a n s p o r t Economics and P o l i c y , May 1972. MAP OF COTTAGE AREAS STUDIED 92 tnrt*r**c*c VIM - Charlotte o 4 > to vr. nuns* f -'T>, ... (201 wale O C tit ccnyatc] \ KIccna >P' & 7 W/i Mialhnaver . - /ft! / i r..,l>.., ̂ ^/))^\"^,:'"' \\^^J^'Y •,V"*- EafV.ervi; inaKlccnc _H.. T\NJV ^ ail '.' \ » . * . / ' / V _ - / </ / J/'-^h \ Tatla lak ' , ... *Atcs*CK { Triilaycko -̂'"̂ ^ i % . . . . . V L*.L._, Homalhko lMkt ^ ' HTN. A I06IS Ukt ' I / v Tatttri Ca-.lk RociO «'»! ^ Mai IS- 2t '̂.'H-; «e«hCreek"jy." • «"1ltlee4U^'tV— "%<*'*./„ "'^-e'hiei, \ M • Soto Ccee«yj(jj) / Bii>late\ Ranch ̂  Quexntt cafelc,;̂  j 5 , ,Kyd,â  te,.,.le, C«k ^ Hanceville, J n,i:k„i.. j V Rijke Creel ti I L. ,. > T SpfinghouoeK' k .. L-lacK Creek r.iifoH / Croc* •« ~ ~=Cf Ha* L. IAMV-' . ^ Htrlirrx La {if \ if ^ ^ a 1 ' Lake few Gang RancSpŷoog Creek5!̂, & \ N , V 100 Mile HcusJ'--̂ .̂ !' v ^ t i * ~ LaHache\-,5 Uk,, 5 / i.*wA \ fwea fag:» Cee'- " ' , . - * * ' i eralarnc \ | \\ , \ Meadows c\ B..'r..lj ̂ >r-cr^ [i,,vjni -s v '/.-.' L:-;C f- -'.'//• ' Jior.apnrte ^ ^ c C'-.V,;;-'-'-' land r,,-;.. \ ^ ,c«JWlfi ' C a ^ C r e o ^ - , .J /"Cn.sCreek 57.. GARIBALDI > J'\ _̂  * i . ! i * ^ / \v : •• Ki::ro-n Cay I CCtftjO'V S < PROVINCIAL •} %.%) g?Q „/:;/..>r.rV V f t i i a ^ ^ ^ p a a - . ^ - V i i L.niiii,'. -> v̂ X-:..".:.:-,: pert ':-,\:y.\/fl,.,r/ Y^.'S  65 • ' ./ \ ' y,-- \-y.a-a ,«! <yffyv̂<v 0 0 11 ' A i ' i W ^ ^ ^ ^ . ' W i : ^ <VK^,>^ . *>«r J'f,« um. f[2) Spcnces ///A' I Shaw /«p^ Ljt^fesg^lL PARK • GOLDEN F.t.i<$ PROVINCIAL PAfiK • i«t. -: J '-. ti<""r>*m / 1 4,*. Lake ' (' LkLOOET lll^" Canlord.̂ sy.,'! « « * V./ • y) Lcv.'Cf / v .1 r. / -•  A i«> a v\ ~» -..,.,,,,.1, » \\ , - , , . £' •mil - P ^ % ^ H 7u%%haPmans^ n Grove ; "i| />.«*«*) l^A^p' \ ^ . . ^ y ; ! \ > > a « I ̂ a Z ^ ^ N 3^ m i ^ e group - Loon X ^! " ' J 330 m i l e group - canira, " o y 1 ;\ t • . i ' * " / ?y- r ; v ," r n L^ ,/' » .ŷ :v-,i-'i-<i,.îO-i'v*'t Mj.înu i vs. Victoria! V«. s--'-'"- ^ ' Ariacortuj ) .rAX, - .. ... .1.-60) S V /-.J """ itttte ~ ~ - group W W K and S u l p h u r o u s L a k e s *^-a - Q u a l i c u m Beach ~ Lake Cowichan Lake Lake Deka„ CALCULATIONS OF TRAVEL COSTS FOR MAINLAND AND VANCOUVER ISLAND COTTAGES 1) MAINLAND GASOLINE COSTS 660 m i l e s (Round t r i p ) 4 18 m i l e s p er g a l l o n = 36.6 g a l l o n s 1974 c o s t = 36.6 x $.55 = $20.31 1976 c o s t = 36.6 x $.85 = $31.16 2) VANCOUVER ISLAND TRAVEL COSTS Assume: 3 Persons per v e h i c l e and a c o n s t a n t g a s o l i n e c o s t o f $4.00 per round t r i p . 1975 C o s t = F e r r y f a r e ($5 + $2 + $2 + $2 = $11 x 2 = $22) + $4 1976 C o s t = F e r r y f a r e ($10 + $4 + $4 + $4 = $22 x 2 = $44) + $4 194 T H E UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH C O L U M B I A 2075 WliSIlROOK MALL VANCOUVER, B.C., CANADA V6T IWS SCI IOOL OI : COMMUNITY & REGIONAL PLANNING February 15, 1977 Dear Cottager: I am undertaking a study of the effects of possible higher future prices for gasoline on cottaging in Bri t i s h Columbia. Several lake ar in the province have been selected. This study is part of a research project at the School of Community and Regional Planning at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia. In' order to carry out this study i t is necessary for me to obtain some information about cottaging in the,province and about cottager's responses to future gasoline price increases. To this end here is a questionnaire which I would ask you to complete. Some thought w i l l be required for a few of the questions but very l i t t l e writing is involves The questionnaire w i l l only take about 15 minutes of your time. The d; which you provide w i l l be treated with s t r i c t confidence and your response w i l l be anonymous. Please complete the questionnaire as soon as possible and forward in the stamped self-addressed envelop which i s enclosed for your convenience. Please do not sign the questionnaire. I w i l l contact yc again at a later date to check as to whether or not you have returned questionnaire. Thank you for your help and co-operation. Yours very truly, gar/b Greg A. Rowe COTTAGE OWNER'S SURVEY 97. 1. How long have you owned your property? 1 year 2-3 years 4-5 years 6-9 years 10 years 2. How close is your cottage to the lake? waterfront non-waterfront 3. What is your principle form of transportation to your cottage? private car carpool with nearby cottagers train bus other (please specify) • 4. How often do you use your cottage now?. Please indicate the total number of v i s i t s you made in the last 12 months in each category. v i s i t s on ordinary weekends v i s i t s on holiday weekends v i s i t s on extended vacation 5. Please indicate the number of v i s i t s you made per year before the gasoline price increases of the last few years. v i s i t s on ordinary weekends v i s i t s on holiday weekends v i s i t s on extended vacation. 6. The price of gasoline w i l l probably continue to increase. Could you please try to estimate how often you would go to your cottage at the following gasoline prices (assuming other prices and your wages remain as they are today). Please give your estimate of the total number of v i s i t s per year in each category. GASOLINE COSTS ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VISITS PER YEAR Per Gallon Round trip gasoline cost for 330 mile one way trip @ 20 miles per gal. Weekends Holiday Weekends Extended Vacation $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $3.00 $33.00 50.00 66.00 100.00 7. If you use a car to reach your cottage would you please answer the following questions: (a) How many people normally ride in your car for the trip to the cottage? 2 or less . 3-4 5 or more (b) What size of car do you use for the trip? f u l l size car (or truck) compact (c) What gas mileage do you get on the trip? subcompact (d) Do you often tow a trailer? never regularly miles per gallon occasionally 8. In the event of a future energy shortage which resulted in gasoline rationing, which of the following would you do? Please check under the appropriate column. DEFINITELY PROBABLY UNLIKELY Continue to use a car as regular transpor- tation in the city and discontinue (or drastically reduce the number of) trips to the cottage. Use public transportation to reach the cottage. Switch primarily to public transit m the city and continue to drive to your cottage Switch to a smaller, more economical car and continue present driving patterns. DfVipr, please specify Why do you go to your cottage? their importance. Rate each of the following as to Very Important Important Not Important Good for children Isolation, peace and quiet Sense of roughing i t , being close to nature Relaxation To engage in outdoor act i v i t i e s Get out of the city . • • • • — Other - 99 10. What was the primary purpose of buying your cottage? vacation hone investment retirement home permanent home 11. Can you re c a l l what you did in your spare time (time which you.now spend at your cottage) before you had your cottage? Check more than one i f necessary. vi s i t e d local parks or recreation areas (not overnight) camping vi s i t e d friends relaxing at home boating visited resorts other (please explain) In your opinion what i s the current market value of your cottage, including the lot? less than $5,000 $15,000-$20,000 $40,000 or $5,000-$10,000 $20,000-$30,000 greater $10,000-$15,000 $30,000-$40,000 Under what arrangement do you hold your property? clear t i t l e lease What is the annual income of your family? less than $5,000 $15,000-$20,000. $40,000 or $5,000-$10,000 $20,000-$30,000 greater . $10,000-$20,000 $30,000-$40,000 What i s your occupation? managerial transport and communication professional and technical craftsman c l e r i c a l labourer sales . retired service and recreation ' • other 16. Check the highest level of education that you have achieved. elementary school high school trade training or technical school university VANCOUVER ISLAND COTTAGE OWNER'S SURVEY How long have you owned your property? 1 year 6-9 years 2-3 years 10 years and over 4-5 years How often did you use your cottage t h i s past summer? Please write t o t a l number of t r i p s per year i n each category. Number of ordinary weekends Number of holiday weekends Number of weeks vacation How often did you use your cottage i n other years (average use before the f e r r y rates were increased)? Please write t o t a l number of t r i p s per year i n each category. Number of ordinary weekends Number of holiday weekends Number of weeks vacation Why do you go to your cottage? Rate each of the following as to the i r importance. VERY IMPORTANT IMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT Good for chi l d r e n I s o l a t i o n , peace and quiet Sense of roughing i t , be- ing close to nature Relaxation To engage i n outdoor a c t i v i t i e s Other - 101 5. In your opinion what i s the current market value of your cottage, in c l u d i n g the l o t ? less than $5,000 $20,000 - $30,000 $5,000 - $10,000 $30,000 - $40,000 $10,000 - $15,000 $15,000 - $20,000 6. What i s the annual income of your family? l e s s than $5,000 $20,000 - $30,000 $5,000 - $10,000 $30,000 - $40,000 $10,000 - $15,000 $15,000 - $20,000 7. What was the primary purpose f o r buying your cottage? vacation home (and/or weekend home) investment u retirement home permanent home

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