UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Cottaging and the cost of travel Rowe, Greg Alan 1977

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COTTAGING AND THE COST OF TRAVEL by GREG ALAN ROWE B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1975  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS  in  THE SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g to t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1977  CQ\  Greg Alan Rowe  In  presenting  an  advanced  the I  Library  further  for  his  of  this  written  shall  agree  at make  that  thesis  freely  may It  is  fulfilment  of  of  Columbia,  British  available  for  for extensive  be g r a n t e d  financial  by  shall  that  not  of  University  copying  British  April 29; 1977  Columbia  of  I  agree  this  be a l l o w e d  or  for  that  study. thesis  my D e p a r t m e n t  copying  Community and Regional Planning of  requirements  r e f e r e n c e and  t h e Head o f  understood  gain  the  permission.  2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1W5  Date  it  permission  purposes  for  in p a r t i a l  the U n i v e r s i t y  representatives.  Department  The  thesis  degree  scholarly  by  this  or  publication  without  my  ii ABSTRACT Many N o r t h A m e r i c a n urban d w e l l e r s f i n d l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g t o be an a t t r a c t i v e a c t i v i t y .  On a t y p i c a l summer weekend i n most N o r t h  A m e r i c a n c i t i e s l a r g e numbers o f c o t t a g e r s make a u t o m o b i l e  trips  r a n g i n g i n l e n g t h from o n l y a few m i l e s to s e v e r a l hundred m i l e s i n order to reach t h e i r  cottages.  Many c o t t a g e r s from the G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r a r e a t r a v e l  greater  d i s t a n c e s t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do c o t t a g e r s from o t h e r l a r g e cities.  A l a r g e p o r t i o n o f t h e s e d i s t a n t c o t t a g e a r e a s were  i n t h e n i n e t e e n s i x t i e s and e a r l y s e v e n t i e s when p e r s o n a l t a t i o n was v e r y i n e x p e n s i v e .  developed  transpor-  The mid n i n e t e e n s e v e n t i e s have been t h e  scene o f s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n energy c o s t s with subsequent r i s e s i n the c o s t o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .  When t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f f u r t h e r e n e r g y p r i c e  increases i s considered i t appears t h a t there i s a d i s t i n c t  possibility  of these d i s t a n t cottages e x p e r i e n c i n g a d r a s t i c d e c l i n e i n use.  This  would have a number o f i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r p l a n n e r s i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a w i t h one o f the most i m p o r t a n t b e i n g the i n c r e a s e i n demand f o r c o t t a g i n g ( o r s i m i l a r a c t i v i t i e s ) c l o s e to Vancouver. In o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e  t h e m a g n i t u d e o f the r e s p o n s e o f c o t t a g e r s  to t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t i n c r e a s e s q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were m a i l e d t o f o u r d i f f e r e n t groups o f c o t t a g e r s who r e s i d e d i n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r .  Three of  t h e s e groups c o n s i s t e d o f c o t t a g e r s who owned c o t t a g e s on the B r i t i s h Columbia mainland  a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from V a n c o u v e r ( t h e c o t t a g e s o f  the f i r s t group were l o c a t e d a b o u t s e v e n t y m i l e s from V a n c o u v e r w h i l e  i ii the t h i r d group's c o t t a g e s were l o c a t e d a b o u t 330 m i l e s from V a n c o u v e r ) . The f o u r t h group c o n s i s t e d o f V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s who  owned c o t t a g e s  on V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d . The d a t a c o l l e c t e d measured r e s p o n s e s i n c r e a s e s , responses responses  to recent gasoline p r i c e  t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s , and c o t t a g e r s ' a n t i c i p a t e d  to f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s .  I t was found  that  c o t t a g e r s had r e s p o n d e d t o both the f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s and  gasoline  p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i t h r e d u c t i o n s i n t h e use o f t h e i r c o t t a g e .  The  data  was a l s o used t o e s t i m a t e the e f f e c t o f f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g e use.  The s t u d y r e v e a l s t h a t t h e c o s t s o f r e a c h i n g d i s t a n t  c o t t a g e s i s p r e s e n t l y a t a l e v e l such t h a t f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s c o u l d s e v e r e l y c u r t a i l t h e use o f t h e s e  cottages.  T h e s e f i n d i n g s can be c o n s i d e r e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h  estimated  f u t u r e t r e n d s f o r e n e r g y p r i c e s t o d e t e r m i n e the m a g n i t u d e o f the e f f e c t o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s on c o t t a g i n g a t a g i v e n t i m e .  This  r e s u l t c o u l d then be used t o p l a n f o r a l t e r n a t i v e o p p o r t u n i t i e s c l o s e r to Vancouver.  iv TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE  Page INTRODUCTION AND ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY Background C o t t a g i n g and t h e A u t o m o b i l e The E n e r g y S i t u a t i o n Purpose o f t h i s Study The Need f o r a S t u d y o f t h i s N a t u r e Scope o f t h e Study L i t e r a t u r e Review Hypotheses Methodology  TWO  DESCRIPTION OF INFORMATION COLLECTED AND ANALYSIS OF DATA Questionnaire Returns Responses o f t h e C o t t a g e r s t o . P a s t G a s o l i n e . P r i c e . , Increases Responses o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d C o t t a g e r s t o F e r r y Fare Increases C o t t a g e r s A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e „ Price Increases Gasoline Costs i n Relation to Other Costs o f Cottaging A n a l y s i s o f P r o f i l e Data R e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h i s Survey t o the E n t i r e Vancouver Cottage F i e l d  THREE  FOUR  CONCLUSIONS  1 1 4 5 11 13 15 16 2 0  21 23 28 30 33 40 57 59 gg 72  G a s o l i n e P r i c e s and R e d u c t i o n i n Use o f C o t t a g e s . . Income and L o c a t i o n o f C o t t a g e T r a v e l Time and T r a v e l C o s t A d d i t i o n a l Comments  73 76 77 78  THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE STUDY TO REGIONAL PLANNING . .  82  Indirect Effects o f Gasoline Price Increases . . . . C o t t a g i n g and P l a n n i n g Summary  82 83 86  BIBLIOGRAPHY  89  V  Page APPENDIX Map o f C o t t a g e A r e a L o c a t i o n s C a l c u l a t i o n s o f T r a v e l C o s t s f o r M a i n l a n d and V a n c o u v e r Island Cottagers Questionnaire Covering L e t t e r to Mainland Cottagers Covering L e t t e r to Vancouver I s l a n d Cottagers . . . . Follow-up L e t t e r Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Sent to Mainland Cottagers . . . . . . . (330 M i l e Subgroup Q u e s t i o n n a i r e * Questionnaire Sent to Vancouver I s l a n d Cottagers . . .  92 93 94 94 95 96 97 100  vi  LIST OF TABLES Table  Page  1  Q u e s t i o n n a i r e Returns  29  2  T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (70 M i l e Subgroup)  31  T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup)  31.  T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup)  32  T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (70 M i l e Subgroup)  34  T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup)  34  T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup)  35  T o t a l Annual Number o f Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e B e f o r e and A f t e r F e r r y F a r e I n c r e a s e s (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup)  36  T o t a l Annual Number o f H o l i d a y Weekend T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r F e r r y F a r e I n c r e a s e s (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup)  35  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  P r i c e E l a s t i c i t y o f Demand f o r T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e  11  Summary o f t h e Weather f o r t h e Summer o f 1976  12  T o t a l Annual Number o f Weeks o f V a c a t i o n Spent a t t h e C o t t a g e - B e f o r e and A f t e r F e r r y F a r e I n c r e a s e s (Vancouver I s l a n d Subgroup)  42  A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e s (240 M i l e Subsample)  44  13  ....  .  38 41  vii Table 14  Page A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e s (330 M i l e Subgroup)  .  15  Responses t o t h e Idea o f F u t u r e G a s o l i n e R a t i o n i n g (70 M i l e Subgroup)  ^ .  16  Responses t o t h e Idea o f F u t u r e G a s o l i n e R a t i o n i n g (240 M i l e Subgroup)  52  17  Responses t o t h e Idea o f F u t u r e G a s o l i n e R a t i o n i n g (330 M i l e Subgroup)  53  18  D e t a i l s About t h e T r i p t o t h e C o t t a g e  54  19  C u r r e n t M a r k e t V a l u e o f C o t t a g e s as E s t i m a t e d by t h e Owners  ..  '56  20  G a s o l i n e C o s t s and C o t t a g e V a l u e s  58  21  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Annual F a m i l y Income by Subgroup . . . .  60  22  F a m i l y Income and Response t o I n c r e a s e d F e r r y F a r e s  63  23  F a m i l y Income and T o t a l Number o f T r i p s t o t h e C o t t a g e  64  24 25  F a m i l y Income and Response t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s Length o f Ownership o f t h e C o t t a g e and Response t o Ferry Fare Increases Length o f Ownership o f t h e C o t t a g e and Responses t o Gasoline P r i c e Increases  64  26  . .  66 66  27  Reasons f o r G o i n g t o t h e C o t t a g e  67  28  A c t i v i t i e s Engaged i n P r i o r t o C o t t a g i n g  .68  29  R e c r e a t i o n a l Accommodation Owned by R e s i d e n t s o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r - L o c a t i o n and D i s t a n c e from V a n c o u v e r  .70  30  Length o f Ownership o f C o t t a g e  72  vi i i LIST OF FIGURES Figure  Page  1  O i l i n Canada - Demand and A v a i l a b i l i t y  2  P a s t Response and A n t i c i p a t e d F u t u r e Responses t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup) . . . . .  45  P a s t Response and A n t i c i p a t e d F u t u r e Responses t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup) . . . . .  46  4  P a s t Response t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (70 M i l e Subgroup)  47  5  Response o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d and M a i n l a n d C o t t a g e r s t o I n c r e a s e d T r a v e l C o s t s (Weekends)  49  6  Response o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d and M a i n l a n d C o t t a g e r s t o I n c r e a s e d T r a v e l C o s t s ( H o l i d a y Weekends)  50  7  E s t i m a t e d Response t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (330 M i l e Subgroup)  80  E s t i m a t e d Response t o F u t u r e G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s (240 M i l e Subgroup)  8JT  3  8  .......  8  1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION AND ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY Background C o t t a g i n g i s a p o p u l a r r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y i n p r e s e n t day American s o c i e t y .  North  A g e n e r a l d e f i n i t i o n o f c o t t a g i n g i s t h e use o f a  second home f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s .  Most c o t t a g i n g a c t i v i t y i s w a t e r  o r i e n t e d w i t h the o n l y m a j o r e x c e p t i o n b e i n g s k i c a b i n s .  In B r i t i s h  Columbia we have the f u r t h e r breakdown between s e a - s i d e c o t t a g e s and c o t t a g e s o r i e n t e d toward b o d i e s o f f r e s h w a t e r ( p r i m a r i l y l a k e s ) . t h e s i s w i l l be d i r e c t e d towards t h o s e c o t t a g e s l o c a t e d near  This  freshwater  lakes. C o t t a g i n g i n some form o r a n o t h e r has been a p a r t o f man's l i f e for centuries.  In f a c t the use o f summer v i l l a s f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s  was a v e r y p o p u l a r p u r s u i t o f t h e w e a l t h y p e o p l e o f a n c i e n t Rome. ( P l o t n i k o f f , 1969).  T h i s phenomena has c a r r i e d on i n v a r i o u s s o c i e t i e s  which have e x i s t e d s i n c e the time o f the Romans. communities a r o s e i n the A d i r o n d a c k (Payne, Gannon, and I r l a n d , 1975)  S i z e a b l e v a c a t i o n home  a r e a o f New York S t a t e i n t h e 1800's. By the 1920's a u t o m o b i l e s  had come i n t o  g e n e r a l use, the work week had s h o r t e n e d , and incomes had r i s e n .  More  p e o p l e were a b l e t o e s c a p e the crowded c i t i e s on weekends w i t h t h e more a f f l u e n t t r a v e l l i n g to second homes c l o s e t o m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s .  (Payne  e t . a l . , 1975). I t was n o t u n t i l t h e f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s t h a t c o t t a g i n g began t o e x p e r i e n c e t h e tremendous growth r a t e s w h i c h we know t o d a y .  During t h i s  p e r i o d a f a i r l y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f the N o r t h A m e r i c a n p o p u l a t i o n began  2  to  emerge as a m i d d l e and upper m i d d l e c l a s s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by r e l a t i v e l y  h i g h incomes and q u i t e l a r g e amounts o f l e i s u r e t i m e .  These y e a r s a l s o  w i t n e s s e d t h e s t a r t o f mass m e r c h a n d i z i n g o f r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d . 1974, p. 17)  (Ragatz,  Roads and a u t o m o b i l e s a l s o improved d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d which  opened up more d i s t a n t a r e a s t o c o t t a g i n g . W h i l e t h e p r i v e l e g e o f owning a second home f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s i s s t i l l l i m i t e d t o m i d d l e and upper c l a s s N o r t h Americans t h e l a s t t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s have seen t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f o u r p o p u l a t i o n t o whom c o t t a g e o w n e r s h i p i s a r e a l  pos-  sibility rise dramatically. T h e r e a r e many r e a s o n s f o r t h e c u r r e n t g r e a t i n t e r e s t i n c o t taging.  The p i o n e e r h e r i t a g e i s s t r o n g i n N o r t h A m e r i c a and w i t h e v e r  i n c r e a s i n g numbers o f p e o p l e l i v i n g i n l a r g e urban c e n t r e s a s t r o n g d e s i r e t o g e t o u t i n t o more n a t u r a l s u r r o u n d i n g s has d e v e l o p e d .  Various  o u t d o o r s p o r t s such as b o a t i n g and w a t e r s k i i n g which a r e s t r o n g l y l i n k e d t o c o t t a g i n g have become v e r y p o p u l a r i n t h e l a s t two (due o f c o u r s e t o t h e development o f t h e o u t b o a r d m o t o r ) .  decades  Once under-  way t h e t r e n d towards c o t t a g i n g became s e l f r e i n f o r c i n g s i n c e t h e c o t t a g e emerged as a s t a t u s symbol.  ( R a g a t z , 1969, p. 50)  This i s  p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e among t h e m i d d l e c l a s s o f our s o c i e t y who have o n l y r e c e n t l y been a b l e t o j o i n the r a n k s o f c o t t a g e owners. In Canada l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g f i r s t became p o p u l a r i n t h e E a s t w i t h t h e r e s i d e n t s o f T o r o n t o and M o n t r e a l c o l o n i z i n g t h e l a k e a r e a s n o r t h o f t h e s e two c i t i e s .  Many o f t h e s e a r e a s ( s u c h as t h e Muskokas)  were d e v e l o p e d f o r t h i s purpose i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h e t w e n t i e t h century.  C o t t a g i n g has s p r e a d t o many more l a k e a r e a s i n E a s t e r n  Canada s i n c e t h a t t i m e .  Due t o t h e l a r g e numbers o f l a k e s i n E a s t e r n  3 Canada c o t t a g e r s from even the l a r g e s t c i t i e s do n o t have t o t r a v e l e x c e p t i o n a l l y great distances to reach t h e i r cottages.  In f a c t a s t u d y  o f c o t t a g e r s from the M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o a r e a showed t h a t the  average  d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d t o t h e i r c o t t a g e s was 135 m i l e s w i t h the range from s i x t y t o two hundred m i l e s . (Hodge, 1970)  (The p o p u l a t i o n  range  would be much g r e a t e r than t h i s s i n c e t h e sample f o r t h i s s t u d y v e r y s m a l l , N=18  being  was  cottagers.)  In B r i t i s h Columbia i s i n E a s t e r n Canada.  t h e s i t u a t i o n i s somewhat d i f f e r e n t than i t  A c u r s o r y e x a m i n a t i o n o f a map o f B r i t i s h  Columbia  w i l l show t h a t t h e r e a r e n o t n e a r l y as many l a k e s i n t h i s p r o v i n c e as t h e r e a r e i n E a s t e r n Canada. t h e southwest  This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y true with regard to  corner of the province.  Due t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a l t e r -  n a t i v e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s a r e n o t as d e p e n d e n t upon l a k e s as a r e E a s t e r n C a n a d i a n s .  However many V a n c o u v e r i t e s  been b r o u g h t up i n E a s t e r n Canada and t o t h o s e p e o p l e the term i s a l m o s t synonymous w i t h l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e .  have cottage  Thus we f i n d t h a t many  Vancouverites d r i v e long d i s t a n c e s to reach lakeshore cottages. f a c t a l m o s t twenty p e r c e n t o f V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s t r a v e l a b o u t hundred m i l e s (one way d i s t a n c e ) t o r e a c h t h e i r c o t t a g e s .  In three  (Taylor,  1972) In g e n e r a l c o t t a g i n g a c t i v i t y o r i g i n a t i n g i n t h e V a n c o u v e r urban f i e l d seems t o be much more d i v e r s e , both i n terms o f i t s r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e o r i e n t a t i o n and i n terms o f d i s t a n c e from permanent r e s i d e n c e t o c o t t a g e than i s t h e c a s e i n E a s t e r n Canada. many r e a s o n s f o r t h i s but the m a j o r ones a r e u n d o u b t e d l y  There are r e l a t e d to the  4 great v a r i e t y o f r e c r e a t i o n a l resources which e x i s t i n B r i t i s h Columbia. W i t h i n t h r e e hundred m i l e s o f V a n c o u v e r t h e p r o s p e c t i v e c o t t a g e r c a n choose between s e a s i d e , m o u n t a i n , o r l a k e s h o r e l o c a t i o n s . A n o t h e r important variable i n this respect i s climate. t o u r i s t advertisements  F o r example n e a r l y a l l  f o r t h e Okanagan o r S o u t h C a r i b o o a r e a s s t r e s s  the sunny c l i m a t e s o f t h o s e a r e a s .  I t does seem t h a t many V a c o u v e r i t e s  are w i l l i n g t o t r a v e l the e x t r a d i s t a n c e t o these areas i n order t o r e l a x i n a warm, b r i g h t c l i m a t e . C o t t a g i n g and t h e A u t o m o b i l e A t t h e p r e s e n t time t h e c o t t a g e and t h e a u t o m o b i l e  a r e almost  i n s e p e r a b l e s i n c e , f o r t h e m a j o r i t y o f c o t t a g e owners, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o the c o t t a g e i s d e p e n d a n t on t h e f a m i l y c a r .  Public transportation to  c o t t a g e a r e a s has n e v e r been v e r y w i d e s p r e a d  i n B r i t i s h Columbia but a t  one time was q u i t e i m p o r t a n t i n E a s t e r n Canada.  ( J a a k s o n 1974, p. 220)  Even i n E a s t e r n Canada p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e s i s a t h i n g o f the p a s t w i t h one hundred p e r c e n t o f t h e c o t t a g e r s i n a T o r o n t o survey  i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e y t r a v e l l e d by a u t o m o b i l e  modes o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n were u s u a l l y a v a i l a b l e . The a u t o m o b i l e  cottager  although a l t e r n a t i v e  (Hodge, 1970, p. 5)  i s i d e a l l y s u i t e d f o r home t o c o t t a g e  travel.  I t p r o v i d e s a v e r y f l e x i b l e mode o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a t a m o d e r a t e p r i c e . The a u t o m o b i l e  a l s o a l l o w s t h e c o t t a g e r f r e e d o m o f movement a r o u n d t h e  v i c i n i t y o f h i s c o t t a g e w h i l e he i s t h e r e .  F o r t h o s e c o t t a g e r s who  wish t o t r a n s p o r t b u l k y and heavy r e c r e a t i o n a l equipment such as boats o r snowmobiles a u t o m o b i l e  transportation i s essential.  When p e o p l e l e a v e t h e i r homes i n urban a r e a s t o go t o t h e i r  5  c o t t a g e s t h e y g e n e r a l l y w i s h t o go t o an a r e a which i s much l e s s d e n s e l y p o p u l a t e d t h a n i s t h e c i t y from which t h e y came.  T h e r e f o r e most c o t t a g e  a r e a s a r e v e r y s p r e a d o u t which makes t h e a u t o m o b i l e even more o f a necessity.  This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y true o f areas developed i n the f i f t i e s  and s i x t i e s .  Some o f t h e o l d e r c o t t a g e a r e a s such as C u l t u s Lake have  e v o l v e d i n a v e r y compact n a t u r e . developments  T h i s i s a l s o t r u e o f some o f t h e  o f t h e l a s t few y e a r s such as B l o c k B r o t h e r s 108 M i l e  R e c r e a t i o n a l Ranch.  A s i d e from t h e s e and comparable  e x c e p t i o n s most  t y p i c a l l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e a r e a s i n B r i t i s h Columbia a r e n o t p a r t i c u l a r l y well s u i t e d to access v i a p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . I t can be s a f e l y s a i d t h a t w i t h o u t t h e cheap, e f f i c i e n t  automobile  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n which we p r e s e n t l y e n j o y i n B r i t i s h Columbia c o t t a g i n g would n o t have d e v e l o p e d t o n e a r l y t h e d e g r e e which i t h a s . The Energy S i t u a t i o n The e n e r g y c r i s i s c a n be t a k e n as meaning a s i t u a t i o n i n which demand f o r e n e r g y w i l l exceed s u p p l y a t r e a s o n a b l e p r i c e s .  (Although  t h e i n c l u s i o n o f t h e word " r e a s o n a b l e " does r e d u c e t h e o b j e c t i v e n e s s o f the d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e energy c r i s i s i t i s n e c e s s a r y s i n c e s u p p l y and demand w i l l be equal i n a s i t u a t i o n o f extreme s c a r c i t y i f p r i c e s a r e s e t h i g h enough.) When t h i s o c c u r s one o f t h e immediate and v i s i b l e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s w i l l be a s h o r t a g e o f g a s o l i n e f o r p e r s o n a l t r a n s p o r tation. The i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e e n e r g y c r i s i s o c c u r r e d i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and i n Western Europe i n t h e f a l l o f 1973 d u r i n g t h e A r a b o i l embargo.  Some g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g o c c u r r e d i n Europe a t t h i s time b u t  6 t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s weathered  the storm with a p o l i c y o f " c o n t r o l l e d chaos"  i n which l o n g l i n e u p s and i r r e g u l a r gas s t a t i o n hours d i s c o u r a g e d many motorists.  ( C a r t e r , 1974)  T h e r e was a d e f i n i t e r e d u c t i o n i n g a s o l i n e  consumption  d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d and i t i s c e r t a i n t h a t many  a u t o m o b i l e t r i p s were e l i m i n a t e d .  unnecessary  The Arab o i l embargo took p l a c e  d u r i n g t h e w i n t e r and t h e r e f o r e t h e e f f e c t on c o t t a g e use was p r o b a b l y slight.  T h e r e was p r o b a b l y a s u b s t a n t i a l e f f e c t on t h e use o f s k i a r e a s  but t h e r e do n o t appear t o be any r e p o r t s on t h i s a s p e c t o f t h e r e d u c e d oil  imports. W h i l e t h e Arab o i l embargo was an " a r t i f i c i a l " energy c r i s i s , i t  c o u l d p r o v e t o be an a c c u r a t e f o r e w a r n i n g o f t h e f u t u r e as demand e s c a l a t e s and s u p p l i e s d w i n d l e .  While i t i s d i f f i c u l t to p r e d i c t the exact  e n e r g y s i t u a t i o n w i t h which we w i l l be f a c e d i n f i v e , t e n , o r twenty y e a r s some g e n e r a l comments c a n be made a b o u t t h e f u t u r e .  Our demand  f o r e n e r g y i n g e n e r a l and g a s o l i n e i n p a r t i c u l a r has c o n t i n u e d t o grow s i n c e 1973 and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o do so b a r r i n g r a d i c a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . A t t h i s p r e s e n t r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n demand i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t r e a l s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s w i l l o c c u r i n t h e n e x t decade o r two.  I f and when  t h i s does happen e i t h e r r a t i o n i n g o r d r a s t i c p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o r both w i l l take place.  B e f o r e a m a j o r c r i s i s comes about i t i s l i k e l y t h a t  t h e r e w i l l be more o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s by p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s i n r e s ponse t o r i s i n g demand and s h r i n k i n g s u p p l i e s . In Vancouver  from 1974 t o 1976 g a s o l i n e p r i c e s have r i s e n from  about f i f t y - f i v e c e n t s p e r g a l l o n t o a b o u t e i g h t y - f i v e c e n t s p e r g a l l o n . (These f i g u r e s a r e a v e r a g e s o f low and h i g h p r i c e s f o r r e g u l a r g a s o l i n e i n t h e G r e a t e r Vancouver  area.)  (B.C. Energy Commission, 1975, p. 15)  7 T h i s i s an a v e r a g e p r i c e r i s e o f a b o u t t e n p e r c e n t p e r y e a r when p r i c e s a r e d e f l a t e d w i t h the consumer p r i c e index o f Canada. 1976)  (Between J a n u a r y , 1974 and J u n e , 1976  ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada,  the Consumer P r i c e Index  r o s e a b o u t 28 p e r c e n t whereas g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r o s e a b o u t 54  percent.  T h i s e q u a l s an a p p r o x i m a t e r e a l i n c r e a s e i n g a s o l i n e p r i c e s o f 25 c e n t w h i c h t r a n s l a t e s t o a r e a l r a t e o f i n c r e a s e o f a b o u t 10  per-  percent  per y e a r . )  I f t h i s r a t e c o n t i n u e s a v e r a g e p e r g a l l o n p r i c e s would be  a b o u t $1.25  i n 1981  and $1.70  i n 1986  ( i n 1976 d o l l a r s ) . The  period  under c o n s i d e r a t i o n has a l s o seen i n c r e a s e d government t a x e s on g a s o l i n e which do c o n t r i b u t e s u b s t a n t i a l l y t o the r a t h e r h i g h r a t e s o f p r i c e increase mentioned.  However t h i s does not s e r i o u s l y r e d u c e t h e  v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e f i g u r e s s i n c e i f the C a n a d i a n government had  allowed  g a s o l i n e p r i c e s t o i n c r e a s e f r e e l y a t t h e r a t e d i c t a t e d by w o r l d o i l p r i c e s the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e i n Canada would have been a t l e a s t as much i f not more than what i t was w i t h t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f the e x t r a taxes. The c e n t r a l p o i n t i n the C a n a d i a n o i l s i t u a t i o n i s t h a t i n 1975 Canada became a n e t i m p o r t e r o f o i l i n s t e a d o f a n e t e x p o r t e r has been the c a s e i n the p a s t . p. 24)  ( E n e r g y , M i n e s , and R e s o u r c e s ,  as  1976,  As F i g u r e #1 shows t h i s t r e n d w i l l c o n t i n u e i n t o the f u t u r e .  ( E n e r g y , M i n e s , and R e s o u r c e s , 1976,  p. 75)  Thus i n the l o n g run  Canada has l i t t l e c h o i c e but t o pay the i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r i c e f o r o i l . T h e r e a r e some g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w h i c h a r e p r e s e n t l y planned f o r Canada and thus a r e n e a r l y c e r t a i n to o c c u r . ment o f E n e r g y , M i n e s , and R e s o u r c e s i n t h e i r " N a t i o n a l  The D e p a r t Energy  FIGURE  #1  Domestic demand and availability: oil (1970-1990; low-price scenario) 3000-1  1970 71 72 73  74 75  76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 YEARS  Domestic demand and availability: oil (1970-1990; high-price scenario) 3 000  n  1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78"79 8(3 81 82'83 84 6586 87 88 89 90 YEARS  9 Strategy" state an objective of moving domestic o i l prices toward international levels within the next few years. are currently $8.00/barrel  with international prices being about $13/  barrel (delivered to Eastern Canada). 1976).  Canadian domestic o i l prices  (Energy, Mines, and Resources,  This impending domestic crude price increase obviously implies  increased gasoline prices for Canadians.  In f a c t the entire amount of  this increase w i l l be f e l t in real terms since O.P.E.C. w i l l  probably  continue to raise the world price of o i l at a rate s u f f i c i e n t to keep up with i n f l a t i o n in Western countries.  This 60 percent increase in the  price of crude o i l w i l l r e s u l t in a smaller percentage increase in gasoline costs (due to constant costs such as r e f i n i n g , d i s t r i b u t i o n , taxes, etc.,) but one that i s substantial.  In f a c t this increase in the  price of crude o i l w i l l add about 14<f per gallon to the cost of gasoline since about 35 Imperial gallons of gasoline can be produced from one barrel of petroleum. Aside from this upward adjustment in Canadian domestic prices and possible increased gasoline taxes (to reduce demand and therefore a l l e v i a t e balance of payments problems caused by massive imports  of  expensive o i l ) some observers believe that o i l prices w i l l be r e l a t i v e l y stable for the next few years.  For example:  We subscribe to the view that world o i l prices w i l l continue to increase, but at moderated rates, probably no greater than the general rate of i n f l a t i o n being experienced by western indust r i a l i z e d nations. S i g n i f i c a n t l y higher rates are not l i k e l y because the world o i l price is already at the l i m i t where further increases would only serve to promote the drive f o r energy independence, hasten the search for new energy sources, and render economic those sources previously deemed uneconomic. Since these effects would only serve to erode the earnings potential of O.P.E.C. o i l reserves, attempts by the cartel to increase o i l prices too rapidly would not be in i t ' s own s e l f i n t e r e s t . " (B.C. Energy Commission, A p r i l , 1976)  10 Thus i n terms o f m a x i m i z i n g s h o r t term r e v e n u e f o r o i l p r o d u c i n g t r i e s petroleum  coun-  p r i c e s a r e p r o b a b l y a l r e a d y n e a r o p t i m a l l e v e l s . How-  e v e r i n the f u t u r e as demand i n c r e a s e s , and s u p p l i e s d w i n d l e i t may  be i n  the i n t e r e s t o f o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s t o s e t much h i g h e r r e a l p r i c e s for t h e i r petroleum. I t does seem t h a t the t r e n d o f r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g g a s o l i n e p r i c e s o f the l a s t t h r e e y e a r s (1974-1977) w i l l slow down t o some e x t e n t between now and 1980 but the 1 9 8 0 s may w e l l see an i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f p r i c e 1  increases or r a t i o n i n g . To put t h e s e comments i n p e r s p e c t i v e i t s h o u l d be noted  that  g a s o l i n e p r e s e n t l y c o s t s over $2.00 per g a l l o n i n many European c o u n t r i e s . K e e p i n g i n mind the s t r o n g l i n k between c o t t a g i n g and  the  a u t o m o b i l e i t does seem l i k e l y t h a t the phenomena o f r a p i d growth o f c o t t a g i n g i n t h e f i f t i e s and s i x t i e s may energy r e s t r i c t i o n s .  be a l t e r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y  by  In t h e i r r e p o r t " S u b d i v i d i n g R u r a l A m e r i c a " t h e  A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s c i t e s the e n e r g y c r i s i s o f  1973  as t h e m a j o r r e a s o n f o r the sharp r e d u c t i o n i n r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d s a l e s which had p r e v i o u s l y been booming. O f f i c i a l s , 1976)  (American S o c i e t y o f  R e i n e r J a c k s o n views the s i t u a t i o n t h i s  Planning way:  I t i s q u i t e l i k e l y , however, t h a t a t l e a s t f o r some f a m i l i e s , where t h e expense o f m a i n t a i n i n g a c o t t a g e a l r e a d y s t r a i n s the budget, the p r o s p e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g l y more e x p e n s i v e p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e t r a v e l may r e s u l t i n c h a n g i n g r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t y s t y l e s . These changes may be f r o m c o t t a g e use t o more i n t e n s i v e use o f p u b l i c parks and o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s c l o s e t o urban c e n t r e s . P u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e a r e a s , once q u i t e i m p o r t a n t , may have t o be r e - e x a m i n e d w i t h i n the novel c o n t e x t o f t h e emergent v i e w o f what we c o n s i d e r t o be a p p r o p r i a t e uses o f e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s . ( J a a k s o n , 1974, p. 220) In l i g h t o f t h e s e comments i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t some p r e s e n t l y  popular  11 t r e n d s i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n g e n e r a l and c o t t a g i n g i n p a r t i c u l a r w i l l be s u b j e c t t o change i n the n e a r f u t u r e . The Purpose o f t h i s S t u d y In N o r t h A m e r i c a our p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l and  cottaging  (and o f c o u r s e our e n t i r e l i f e s t y l e ) a r e b u i l t on an abundant s u p p l y o f cheap e n e r g y .  P r i o r t o 1973 and p r o b a b l y even now our d e c i s i o n s w h i c h  commit us to a c e r t a i n c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i n t h e f u t u r e a r e based on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t e n e r g y w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e a t r e l a t i v e l y low p r i c e s ( i . e . s i m i l a r t o the p r i c e s o f t o d a y ) . b r i e f l y i t i s extremely  As I have e x p l a i n e d  i m p r o b a b l e t h a t i n the f u t u r e e n e r g y w i l l c o n -  t i n u e t o be as f r e e l y and c h e a p l y a v a i l a b l e as i t i s p r e s e n t l y . A c q u i r i n g a c o t t a g e i s a d e c i s i o n w h i c h f a l l s i n t o the  category  o f t h o s e w h i c h commit one to a c e r t a i n c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i n t h e f u t u r e . The d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h i s s t a t e m e n t i s t r u e v a r i e s f r o m one c o t t a g e owner to a n o t h e r  but o v e r a l l t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l d e g r e e o f i n t e n t i o n t o use  the c o t t a g e r e g u l a r l y .  O t h e r c o t t a g e s t u d i e s have shown f r e q u e n c y o f use  t o v a r y p r i m a r i l y between e v e r y weekend i n s e a s o n and once a  month i n  s e a s o n d e p e n d i n g on the d i s t a n c e from permanent r e s i d e n c e t o the ( C o l l i n s & H a r d w i c k , 1972;  Hodge, 1970)  cottage.  Any l e v e l o f use w i t h i n t h i s  r a n g e does i n d i c a t e t h a t the a q u i s i t i o n o f a c o t t a g e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l commitment t o u s i n g i t r e a s o n a b l y o f t e n .  Thus t h e r e i s l i t t l e d o u b t t h a t  c o t t a g e r s a r e c o u n t i n g on a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f the p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n o f cheap e n e r g y .  The o n l y e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s i s t h o s e p e o p l e who  have a c q u i r e d  a c o t t a g e p r i m a r i l y f o r the p u r p o s e o f u s i n g i t as a r e t i r e m e n t home. In l i g h t o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h t h e c o t t a g i n g phenomena has  12 grown on t h e b a s i s o f cheap e n e r g y s u p p l i e s the c e n t r a l purpose o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o i n v e s t i g a t e the i m p l i c a t i o n s w h i c h e n e r g y s h o r t a g e s a n d / o r p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i l l have f o r l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g . many p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s .  There a r e c e r t a i n l y  One o f t h e most o b v i o u s i s t h a t t h o s e  people  whose c o t t a g e s a r e l o c a t e d a t g r e a t d i s t a n c e s from t h e i r homes w i l l p r o b a b l y use t h e i r c o t t a g e w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g f r e q u e n c y as g a s o l i n e p r i c e s rise.  However, much more knowledge than t h i s i s n e c e s s a r y i f t h e r e i s  t o be e f f e c t i v e p l a n n i n g f o r f u t u r e c o t t a g e and o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n a l developments. In o r d e r t o do t h i s we s h o u l d have a good i d e a what r e s p o n s e ( i n terms o f d e c r e a s e d c o t t a g e use and d e c r e a s e i n demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l cottages) to expect to a given p r i c e r i s e f o r g a s o l i n e .  We s h o u l d a l s o  have some i d e a s a b o u t what s o r t o f s u b s t i t u t e a c t i v i t i e s a r e g o i n g t o be pursued by d i s p l a c e d c o t t a g e r s .  T h e s e p e o p l e have i n most c a s e s been  s p e n d i n g a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f t h e i r f r e e time a t t h e i r c o t t a g e and w i l l now have e x t r a time on t h e i r hands. c o t t a g e c l o s e r t o home?  another  C l o s e r to p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n routes? Will  they take r e s o r t v a c a t i o n s ? t h e i r home?  A r e t h e y l i a b l e t o buy  Or s t a y a t home?  Use p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s  nearer  The answers t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s a r e a l l  r e l e v a n t and i m p o r t a n t t o r e c r e a t i o n a l and l a n d use p l a n n i n g f o r t h e future. By i n f o r m e d p l a n n i n g t o d a y the e f f e c t s o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e energy s h o r t a g e s and p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g i n g can be r e d u c e d  con-  siderably.  New  T h i s can happen by a number o f d i f f e r e n t p r o c e s s e s .  c o t t a g e d e v e l o p m e n t s c o u l d be l o c a t e d c l o s e r t o the permanent r e s i d e n c e s  13 o f the p e o p l e who w i l l be u s i n g them.  New d e v e l o p m e n t s c o u l d be l o c a t e d  and d e s i g n e d i n such a way as t o make p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t t o and from them a real p o s s i b i l i t y .  The e x p a n s i o n o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t t o s e r v e e s t a b l i s h e d  c o t t a g e a r e a s c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d . c l o s e r t o c i t i e s c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d .  Alternative recreational facilities There a r e many a l t e r n a t i v e s t o the  c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n o f e x t e n s i v e c o t t a g i n g based on cheap e n e r g y .  Which  ones s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d and when t h e y s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d i s dependant upon the p r e c i s e n a t u r e o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f cheap e n e r g y .  I t i s i n t e n d e d and hoped t h a t t h i s  t h e s i s w i l l p r o v i d e p l a n n e r s w i t h some o f i n f o r m a t i o n n e c e s s a r y t o make these d e c i s i o n s . The emphasis o f the t h e s i s w i l l be p r i m a r i l y on the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c o t t a g i n g and energy as t h e c o t t a g e r sees i t . Some w r i t e r s on the s u b j e c t have s u g g e s t e d t h a t a u t o m o b i l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s may n o t be an a p p r o p r i a t e use o f our e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s . 1974)  (Jaakson,  I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h i s question i s l a r g e l y a question of personal  v a l u e s and t h e r e f o r e i s n o t a c e n t r a l p a r t o f t h i s t h e s i s . The Need f o r a Study o f t h i s  Nature  One o f the m a j o r r e a s o n s why work o f t h i s t y p e i s needed i s t h a t a l t h o u g h t h i s t y p e o f r e s e a r c h would be u s e f u l t o r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g ( i n the ways e x p l a i n e d p r e v i o u s l y ) l i t t l e has p r e v i o u s l y been done i n t h e field.  In f a c t a p r e o c c u p a t i o n w i t h o t h e r more p r e s s i n g problems such  as n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t has r e s u l t e d i n c o t t a g i n g s t u d i e s b e i n g g i v e n v e r y low p r i o r i t i e s .  In the p a s t a m a j o r r e a s o n f o r the l a c k o f  r e s e a r c h i n t o c o t t a g i n g i s as f o l l o w s :  14 The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s o b s e r v e d p a u c i t y o f r e s e a r c h stem from two f a c t o r s . The f i r s t o f t h e s e i s t h a t c o t t a g i n g r e l a t e d t o any f a c e t o f g o v e r n m e n t a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and q u e n t l y r e s e a r c h i n t h i s s p h e r e i s s e l f o m demanded f o r p u r p o s e s . S e c o n d l y i t i s both e x p e n s i v e and d i f f i c u l t d a t a on t h i s a r e a o f r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y . ( C a m p b e l l , In B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a (and i n many o t h e r P r o v i n c e s ) we now  mainly i s unconseplanning to obtain 1967, p l )  have r e g i o n a l  governments w h i c h can p l a n f o r and r e g u l a t e c o t t a g e d e v e l o p m e n t .  Although  c o t t a g i n g has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been u n p l a n n e d and f r e e f r o m r e s t r i c t i o n , t h a t time i s r a p i d l y coming to an end.  S i n c e the t r e n d i s toward p l a n n i n g f o r  c o t t a g i n g and we now have a means o f a c c o m p l i s h i n g  t h a t goal ( t h e  Regional  D i s t r i c t s ) t h i s i s the time to undertake s t u d i e s of c o t t a g i n g . In p a r t i c u l a r i t i s p r e s e n t l y i m p o r t a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and e n e r g y .  t h a t work be done on the  W h i l e some p r e v i o u s  research  has been done on c o t t a g i n g i n g e n e r a l and t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l amount o f l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g to o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n g e n e r a l t h e r e seems t o be very l i t t l e which r e l a t e s e i t h e r outdoor r e c r e a t i o n or c o t t a g i n g to i t s energy base.  T h i s i s a s e r i o u s gap i n the l i t e r a t u r e s i n c e w i t h o u t i t  any p l a n n i n g f o r f u t u r e c o t t a g i n g w i l l n e c e s s a r i l y be based upon  specu-  l a t i o n s a b o u t t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p . Those s t u d i e s w h i c h were most c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o my s u b j e c t a r e a s p e c i f i c a l l y m e n t i o n e d the need f o r r e s e a r c h in t h i s f i e l d : F i n a l l y r e s e a r c h i s needed t o p r e d i c t t h e amount, q u a l i t y , and l o c a t i o n o f f u t u r e second home d e v e l o p m e n t . Demand and m a r k e t i n g s t u d i e s can h e l p p r o v i d e t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n . S p e c i f i c a t t e n t i o n must be p a i d t o t h e e f f e c t s o f c o n t i n u e d s h o r t a g e s o f e n e r g y and p o t e n t i a l l i m i t a t i o n s imposed by h i g h e r c o s t s o f a u t o m o b i l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . (Payne, Gannon, and I r l a n d , 1975) Thus i t i s my o p i n i o n t h a t t h i s r e s e a r c h w i l l h e l p t o f i l l an gap which p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s i n the l i t e r a t u r e .  important  15 Scope o f t h e Study The scope o f t h i s s t u d y w i l l be r e s t r i c t e d i n a number o f dimensions.  Up t o t h i s p o i n t t h e terms c o t t a g i n g and l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g  have been used r a t h e r l o o s e l y . T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l c o n c e n t r a t e s o l e l y on l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g . The d e f i n i t i o n o f l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g f o r t h e purposes o f t h i s s t u d y w i l l i n c l u d e a l l c o t t a g e s f r o n t i n g d i r e c t l y on l a k e s and t h o s e c o t t a g e s whose p r i m a r y r e a s o n f o r e x i s t e n c e i s a nearby l a k e and a r e l o c a t e d w i t h i n one q u a r t e r m i l e o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r l a k e .  A  c o t t a g e i s a home l o c a t e d e i t h e r on o r w i t h i n one q u a r t e r m i l e o f a l a k e and i s used p r i m a r i l y i n t h e summer f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s .  Cottagers  a r e t h o s e p e o p l e who own and use t h e s e b u i l d i n g s . In c o n c e p t u a l terms t h e g e o g r a p h i c scope o f t h e s t u d y i s t h e c o t t a g e f i e l d o f t h e G r e a t e r Vancouver e x t e n d s outwards from Vancouver  area.  Since this cottage f i e l d  i n many d i f f e r e n t d i r e c t i o n s i t was  n e c e s s a r y t o choose o n l y one s l i c e o f t h i s c o t t a g e f i e l d .  According to  t h i s p r i n c i p l e i t was d e c i d e d t o f o c u s on l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g i n g a l o n g highways #1 and 97 ( i . e . from Vancouver Canyon i n t o t h e C a r i b o o ) .  t h r o u g h t h e F r a s e r V a l l e y and  W i t h i n t h i s u n i v e r s e o f c o t t a g e r s a sample  was s e l e c t e d . When o t h e r t y p e s o f c o t t a g i n g a r e b r o u g h t i n t o t h e s t u d y i t i s o n l y f o r t h e purpose o f c o m p a r i s o n . between c o t t a g e u s e on Vancouver  Thus w h i l e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p  I s l a n d and f e r r y r a t e s w i l l be con-  s i d e r e d t h i s w i l l be done o n l y t o shed more l i g h t on t h e l a k e s h o r e cottage use-energy c o s t q u e s t i o n . The s t u d y w i l l f o c u s on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g and energy as t h a t r e l a t i o n s h i p i s b r o u g h t o u t i n g a s o l i n e consumption f o r  16 t r a v e l t o and from the c o t t a g e .  O t h e r a s p e c t s o f e n e r g y use a t t h e  c o t t a g e such as power b o a t s f o r w a t e r s k i i n g w i l l n o t be c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s i s done i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t the r e s u l t s from becoming too c o n f u s i n g . A m a j o r t h r u s t o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l be d e v o t e d  to  d e v e l o p i n g a r e l a t i o n s h i p between e n e r g y ( i . e . g a s o l i n e ) c o s t s and t h e demand f o r c o t t a g i n g .  The scope o f t h e t h e s i s w i l l be c o n s i d e r a b l y w i d e r  than t h i s however i n o r d e r t o make the r e s u l t s more s u i t a b l e f o r p l a n n i n g purposes.  T h e r e f o r e an e f f o r t w i l l be made t o examine a l t e r n a t i v e s t o  automobile t r i p s to d i s t a n t cottages.  A l t e r n a t i v e s such as o t h e r forms  o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c l o s e r c o t t a g e s , and o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s i n s t e a d o f c o t t a g i n g w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d . L i t e r a t u r e Review T h e r e a r e two m a j o r c a t e g o r i e s o f l i t e r a t u r e w h i c h a r e p e r t i n e n t t o t h i s t h e s i s . One o f t h e s e i s t h e body o f l i t e r a t u r e w h i c h concerns i t s e l f with the measuring  o f t h e demand f o r and the v a l u e o f  o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . W h i l e i t c o u l d be d e b a t e d as t o w h e t h e r o r n o t c o t t a g i n g i t s e l f i s a form o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i t i s a t l e a s t v e r y c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o i t . T h e r e f o r e t h i s body o f l i t e r a t u r e i s v e r y import a n t t o the s t u d y . The second m a j o r c a t e g o r y o f l i t e r a t u r e w h i c h i s r e l e v a n t t o t h e s t u d y i s t h a t r e l a t i n g t o t h i s p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e . ( P r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand i s the p e r c e n t a g e change i n t h e q u a n t i t y o f a good demanded i n r e s p o n s e t o a one p e r c e n t change i n i t s p r i c e . ) a p p a r e n t from t h i s d e f i n i t i o n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i s p r i m a r i l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h d e t e r m i n i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p between g a s o l i n e p r i c e changes and  As i s  17 changes i n q u a n t i t y demanded. t a n t t o my s t u d y .  T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s o b v i o u s l y v e r y impor-  U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e r e seems t o have been r e l a t i v e l y  l i t t l e research i n this f i e l d . c o n c e n t r a t e d on t h e a g g r e g a t e  The r e s e a r c h w h i c h has been done has p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e as  opposed t o c o n s i d e r i n g t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand w i t h r e s p e c t t o s p e c i f i c uses.  ( H o u t h a k k e r , V e r l e g e r , and Sheehan, 1974; H o u t h a k k e r and  V e r l e g e r , 1974)  T h i s i s a s i g n i f i c a n t drawback t o u s i n g t h e s e s t u d i e s  as a c o m p a r i s o n t o t h i s s t u d y s i n c e i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e p r i c e e l a s i t c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e v a r i e s s u b s t a n t i a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o d i f f e r e n t uses.  ( i . e . f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l v e r s u s d r i v i n g t o work) Nevertheless  i t i s s t i l l worthwhile  o b t a i n e d by t h e s e s t u d i e s .  to consider the r e s u l t s  T h e s e two i n v e s t i g a t i o n s ( H o u t a k k e r ,  Verleger,  and Sheehan; H o u t h a k k e r and V e r l e g e r ) d i f f e r i n d a t a b a s e , m e t h o d o l o g y and conslusions.  The H o u t h a k k e r - V e r l e g e r  study i n d i c a t e s t h a t f o r the United  S t a t e s as a whole t h e s h o r t r u n p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e i s -.43 and t h e l o n g r u n p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand i s -.75. T h i s a n a l y s i s i s based on r e a l , p e r c a p i t a c o n s u m p t i o n f o r each o f t h e f o r t y - e i g h t s t a t e s and uses annual d a t a f o r t h e p e r i o d s from 1949 t h r o u g h 1971. The H o u t h a k k e r , V e r l e g e r , and Sheehan s t u d y i s based on q u a r t e r l y d a t a from 1963 t h r o u g h 1972.  S h a r p l y d i f f e r i n g c o n c l u s i o n s were r e a c h e d .  The s h o r t r u n p r i c e  e l a s t i c i t y o f demand was found t o be -.075 w i t h t h e l o n g r u n e s t i m a t e b e i n g -.24.  One c r i t i c s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e h i g h e r a b s o l u t e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s  found i n t h e H o u t h a k k e r , V e r l e g e r s t u d y may more a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e t r u e demand e l a s t i c i t i e s .  (W.J. Mead, 1974)  A n o t h e r s o u r c e makes t h e  f o l l o w i n g comments a b o u t t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e :  18 The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e i s known t o be low, such as -.2: i t i s e x p e c t e d t o be h i g h e r as t h e p r i c e r i s e s . In o t h e r words, t h e h i g h e r t h e p r i c e o f g a s o l i n e t h e more s e n s i t i v e p e o p l e become t o a s m a l l change i n i t s p r i c e . ( E a r l R o l p h , 1975) Thus even i f t h e h i g h e s t e s t i m a t e o f t h e H o u t a k k e r - V e r l e g e r  study i s cor-  r e c t t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand i s r e l a t i v e l y low., ( l e s s than one i n absolute  value) I t must be noted however t h a t r e l a t i v e l y low p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s  o f demand f o r g a s o l i n e by no means imply t h a t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i l l have a n e g l i g i b l e e f f e c t on c o t t a g i n g .  As was m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r  g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e o f 100 p e r c e n t ( i n r e a l t e r m s ) a r e by no means o u t o f t h e q u e s t i o n i n t h e next decade o r two.  A p r i c e i n c r e a s e o f t h i s mag-  n i t u d e when c o u p l e d w i t h a p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand o f -0.50 would r e s u l t i n a 50 p e r c e n t d e c r e a s e  i n g a s o l i n e demand,  to a s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n i n cottaging)  (which would l e a d  A l s o i t must be remembered t h a t  t h e s e e s t i m a t e s a r e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t o t a l demand f o r g a s o l i n e and n o t j u s t f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l g a s o l i n e demand. The l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e e c o n o m i c s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n suggests  s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t ways o f m e a s u r i n g demand f o r and v a l u e o f o u t -  door r e c r e a t i o n .  The i d e a b e h i n d most o f t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i s t h a t s i n c e  most o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n v o l v e s t h e use o f r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s as l a k e s , m o u n t a i n s , b e a c h e s , t r a i l s , e t c . ) w h i c h a r e g e n e r a l l y  (such  provided  f r e e o f c h a r g e ( e i t h e r by n a t u r e o r by t h e Government) t h e o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i s t i s a p p r o p r i a t i n g a "consumer's s u r p l u s " f o r h i m s e l f .  There-  f o r e t h e o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i s t s h o u l d be w i l l i n g t o pay up t o t h e l i m i t o f t h a t "consumer's s u r p l u s " f o r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o p a r t a k e i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r type o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n .  The l i t e r a t u r e a t t e m p t s t o d e v i s e  19  v a r i o u s methods by which t h i s consumer s u r p l u s can be measured  in order  to determine the value o f these r e s o u r c e s . T h e r e a r e two major a p p r o a c h e s t o t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f w i l l i n g n e s s t o pay by consumers  of outdoor r e c r e a t i o n .  One o f t h e s e i s a d i r e c t  method which r e l i e s on i n t e r v i e w s and the o t h e r i s an i n d i r e c t method based on t r a v e l c o s t s . A s t a n d a r d example o f t h e d i r e c t method o f consumer s u r p l u s e s t i m a t i o n i s a s t u d y c a l l e d "The V a l u e o f B i g Game Hunting in a Private Forest".  ( R o b e r t K. D a v i s , 1963)  The w i l l i n g n e s s t o pay o f a sample o f u s e r s was d e t e r m i n e d i n i n t e r v i e w s on t h e s i t e . The i n t e r v i e w s i n c l u d e d among o t h e r t h i n g s , a b i d d i n g game i n which r e s p o n d e n t s c o u l d r e a c t t o i n c r e a s e d c o s t s o f v i s i t i n g t h e a r e a . B i d s were s y s t e m a t i c a l l y r a i s e d (or lowered) u n t i l the user switched h i s r e a c t i o n from i n c l u s i o n t o e x c l u s i o n ( o r v i c e v e r s a ) . . . Demand c u r v e s showi n g how q u a n t i t y demanded i n c r e a s e s as p r i c e i s l o w e r e d a r e d e r i v e d from t h i s d a t a s i m p l y by a r r a y i n g t h e r e s p o n s e s o f w i l l i n g n e s s t o pay p e r h o u s e h o l d u n i t and c u m u l a t i n g downward. T h a t i s , the number o f b u y e r s who would pay as much o r more than a g i v e n p r i c e i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r each p r i c e . The r e s u l t i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n shows t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d s who w i l l be i n t h e market a t any p r i c e . ( D a v i s , 1963, p. 395) Thus a s i m u l a t e d demand c u r v e f o r h u n t i n g i s d e r i v e d by t h i s method. The o t h e r major a p p r o a c h t o t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f the magnitude t h e consumer's  s u r p l u s i s o u t l i n e d i n M a r i o n Clawson's work "Methods o f  M e a s u r i n g t h e Demand f o r and V a l u e o f Outdoor R e c r e a t i o n . " 1959)  of  (Clawson,  T h i s method i s based on t h e f a c t t h a t s i n c e u s e r c h a r g e s f o r most  forms o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a r e e i t h e r v e r y low o r non e x i s t e n t t h e major c o s t i n v o l v e d i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s t h e t r a v e l c o s t i n g o i n g from home t o r e c r e a t i o n s i t e .  In t h e Clawson a p p r o a c h one r e a c t i o n a r e a i s  s e l e c t e d ( i . e . Y o s e m i t e p a r k ) and t h e l o c a t i o n o f permanent a sample o f t h e u s e r p o p u l a t i o n i s d e t e r m i n e d .  residence of  U s e r o r i g i n zones a r e  20 c o n s t r u c t e d a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from the r e c r e a t i o n a r e a and p o p u l a t i o n i n each zone i s d e t e r m i n e d .  the  A u s e r r a t e i s then c a l c u l a t e d  f o r each zone by c o m b i n i n g t h e s u r v e y i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h the zone population data.  An a p p r o x i m a t e t r a v e l c o s t i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e  j o u r n e y from each zone t o the p a r k .  I t i s assumed t h a t o n l y m o n e t a r y  t r a v e l c o s t s a r e i m p o r t a n t and t h a t t i m e c o s t s a r e n o t .  It is also  assumed t h a t a t the m a r g i n t h e r e i s no consumer s u r p l u s i n each zone, ( i . e . t h a t t h e " l a s t p e r s o n " who  uses the park f r o m each zone would not  do so i f i t c o s t him s l i g h t l y more than i t p r e s e n t l y does t o do so)  A  demand c u r v e f o r the use o f t h e park (by p r o s p e c t i v e u s e r s a t d i f f e r e n t d i s t a n c e s f r o m i t ) i s thus c o n s t r u c t e d .  The e f f e c t o f t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f  a u s e r f e e ( o r i n d i r e c t l y the consumer s u r p l u s ) on use from a g i v e n zone i s e s t i m a t e d by moving a l o n g t h e c u r v e to the p o i n t where t r a v e l c o s t p l u s user.-fee'!for the zone i n q u e s t i o n e q u a l s t h e o r i g i n a l t r a v e l c o s t from a more d i s t a n t zone.  The u s e r r a t e i s taken t o be t h a t o f t h e a p p r o p -  r i a t e more d i s t a n t zone. These two methods o f f e r q u i t e d i f f e r e n t a p p r o a c h e s t o m e a s u r i n g the consumer s u r p l u s i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n and t o c o n s t r u c t i n g  simulated  demand c u r v e s f o r the o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e i n q u e s t i o n .  T h e r e have  been o t h e r methods t r i e d but i t i s g e n e r a l l y t h o u g h t t h a t t h e s e two the most r e l i a b l e .  are  ( K n e t s c h and D a v i s , 1966).  Hypotheses The h y p o t h e s e s w h i c h w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s a r e : 1)  As g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r i s e some a r e a s i n the V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g i n g  which a r e p r e s e n t l y p o p u l a r f o r c o t t a g i n g w i l l be r e j e c t e d by the  field present  21: c o t t a g e r s as b e i n g too e x p e n s i v e t o r e a c h . 2)  A t the p r e s e n t time the p r i m a r y l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i n r e g a r d t o the  d i s t a n c e p e o p l e w i l l t r a v e l to t h e i r c o t t a g e s i s t r a v e l t i m e .  In t h e  near f u t u r e t h e p r i m a r y l i m i t i n g f a c t o r w i l l become t r a v e l c o s t due  to  increased gasoline prices. 3)  Lower income p e o p l e have c o t t a g e s f a r t h e r from V a n c o u v e r than  h i g h e r income c o t t a g e r s ,  (because  do  the l a n d i s c h e a p e r t h e r e )  Methodology T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l be c o n d u c t e d of a questionnaire. 1)  i n a d i r e c t manner by means  T h i s c h o i c e was made f o r two  reasons:  I n d i r e c t methods o f r e s e a r c h such as the "Clawson a p p r o a c h "  are best  s u i t e d t o a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h t h e r e i s one c o t t a g i n g a r e a and s e v e r a l c i t i e s of origin.  In B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a the g e n e r a l c a s e i s one i n w h i c h  t h e r e i s one m a j o r p o i n t o f o r i g i n ( G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r ) and many d i f f e r e n t destinations.  Use o f t h e "Clawson t y p e " model would be v e r y d i f f i c u l t i n  t h i s s i t u a t i o n s i n c e i t would i n v o l v e some r a t h e r u n r e a l i s t i c a s s u m p t i o n s about user r a t e s .  The p r i m a r y problem i s o f c o u r s e t h a t " c i t i e s o f  o r i g i n " a r e o f a f i x e d and known s i z e whereas t h e c a p a c i t y o f c o t t a g e areas i s a r a t h e r nebulous 2)  concept.  A d i r e c t method ( q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) makes i t p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n o t h e r  r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e c o t t a g e r s whereas i n d i r e c t methods do n o t . Thus an i n d i r e c t a p p r o a c h would n e c e s s a r i l y l i m i t the s c o p e o f the  study  to the d i r e c t e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on t h e demand f o r cottaging.  The i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s such as s u b s t i t u t i o n o f o t h e r a c t i v i t i e s  f o r c o t t a g i n g c o u l d n o t be s t u d i e d . In o r d e r t o a t t e m p t t o i s o l a t e t h e e f f e c t o f t r a v e l c o s t s on  22 c o t t a g i n g sample a r e a s were s e l e c t e d a t t h r e e d i f f e r e n t d i s t a n c e s from Vancouver.  S i n c e t h e c l o s e s t group i s o n l y 70 m i l e s from Vancouver i t  can a c t as a c o n t r o l sample f o r some p a r t s o f the a n a l y s i s . F o r o t h e r p a r t s i t w i l l be compared d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e two more d i s t a n t s u b - g r o u p s . A p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w o f c o t t a g e r s w h i l e a t t h e i r c o t t a g e would have been the i d e a l way t o c a r r y o u t t h i s s t u d y .  Due t o t h e time o f  y e a r a t which t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n was u n d e r t a k e n t h i s was n o t p o s s i b l e and t h e r e f o r e a m a i l e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e was  used.  The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was m a i l e d t o a sample o f c o t t a g e r s a t s e l e c t e d l a k e s h o r e a r e a s a t v a r y i n g d i s t a n c e s from V a n c o u v e r . s e l e c t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner.  The sample was  F i r s t o f a l l t h e g e n e r a l a r e a s were  s e l e c t e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the p r e v i o u s l y d e f i n e d g e o g r a p h i c scope o f the s t u d y .  The c o t t a g e a r e a s s e l e c t e d a r e :  1)  C u l t u s Lake - a p p r o x i m a t e l y 70 m i l e s from V a n c o u v e r  v i a Highway 401.  2)  Loon Lake - a p p r o x i m a t e l y 240 m i l e s from Vancouver  v i a Highways 401,  1, and 3)  97.  Canim Lake, Deka Lake, and S u l p h u r o u s Lake - a p p r o x i m a t e l y 330 m i l e s  from Vancouver  v i a Highways 401, 1, and 97.  (See  Map).  I d e a l l y i t would have been p r e f e r a b l e t o have t h e second s a m p l i n g p o i n t c l o s e r t o Vancouver  i n o r d e r t o have a more u n i f o r m d i s t a n c e breakdown.  However t h i s was n o t p o s s i b l e due t o t h e r e b e i n g v e r y l i t t l e c o t t a g i n g i n t h e F r a s e r Canyon and Lower Thompson (Cache Creek t o L y t t o n ) r e g i o n s . Once t h e s e c o t t a g e a r e a s were s e l e c t e d the a p p r o p r i a t e t o p o g r a p h i c a l maps were examined and d i s t r i c t l o t numbers f o r the l a k e s h o r e a r e a s were n o t e d .  These d i s t r i c t l o t numbers were t a k e n t o the  B.C.  21  A s s e s s m e n t A u t h o r i t y r e c o r d s where the names and a d d r e s s e s o f t h e owners o f each sub l o t w i t h i n the a p p r o p r i a t e d i s t r i c t l o t s were o b t a i n e d . exact geographic  The  l o c a t i o n o f each sub l o t c o u l d n o t be d e t e r m i n e d ( i . e .  e x a c t l o c a t i o n w i t h i n the s p e c i f i c d i s t r i c t l o t ) and thus n o t a l l o f the sample were w a t e r f r o n t c o t t a g e s .  One a d v a n t a g e o f u s i n g the a s s e s s m e n t  r o l e i s t h a t i t d i s t i n g u i s h e d between empty l o t s and l o t s w i t h improvements and t h e r e f o r e the problem o f s a m p l i n g owners o f empty l o t s was  eliminated.  The c h o o s i n g o f sample s i z e u s u a l l y i n v o l v e s making a compromise between t i m e and funds a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e s u r v e y and the s i z e d e s i r a b l e for statistical r e l i a b i l i t y .  T h i s c a s e was no e x c e p t i o n .  I t was  decided  t o sample a b o u t s e v e n t y - f i v e c o t t a g e r s a t each l o c a t i o n . A t the C u l t u s Lake s i t e t h i s sample s i z e was e a s i l y a t t a i n e d s i n c e t h e r e a r e hundreds o f C u l t u s Lake c o t t a g e s owned by r e s i d e n t s o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r .  The  Loon Lake s i t e proved t o be more o f a p r o b l e m s i n c e a s e a r c h o f t h e A s s e s s m e n t Role i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e r e were o n l y 63 c o t t a g e s owned by r e s i dents o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r .  U n f o r t u a n t e l y t h e r e a r e no o t h e r  adjacent  l a k e s w h i c h c o u l d be added i n t o t h i s sample and t h e r e f o r e i t was a t 63.  left  The Canim Lake a r e a was a l s o d e f i c i e n t i n numbers o f V a n c o u v e r  owned c o t t a g e s but t h i s was e a s i l y compensated f o r by i n c l u d i n g two neighbouring  lakes.  I t must be noted t h a t t h i s i s a s u r v e y o f s e l e c t e d V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s o n l y and i s by no means a random sample. selected purposely.  The zones were  W i t h i n two o f the zones a l l c o t t a g e r s f i t t i n g  w i t h i n the s c o p e o f t h e s t u d y were sampled w h i l e i n t h e t h i r d  the  f i r s t s e v e n t y - f i v e c o t t a g e r s on the assessment, r o l e were sampled. A l l s e l e c t e d c o t t a g e r s r e c e i v e d a copy o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e  and  24 a covering l e t t e r .  T h i s was f o l l o w e d a b o u t t e n days l a t e r by a f o l l o w  up l e t t e r and a n o t h e r copy o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . In o r d e r t o r e l a t e t h i s d a t a t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n must be sampled f o r b a s i c d a t a such as income, e t c . ( T a y l o r , 1973).  F o r t u n a t e l y t h i s work has a l r e a d y been p e r f o r m e d .  The sample o f c o t t a g e r s can thus be compared t o the t o t a l  p o p u l a t i o n by c o m p a r i n g c e r t a i n r e l e v a n t p r o f i l e v a r i a b l e s ( D a v i s , 1963). In c o n c e p t u a l  terms the q u e s t i o n n a i r e can be d i v i d e d i n t o the  following parts: 1)  I n q u i r i e s a o b u t p r e s e n t and p a s t ( b e f o r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o f  the l a s t t w o - t h r e e y e a r s ) use t o d e t e r m i n e  i f t h e r e has been any change  due t o r e c e n t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . 2)  I n q u i r i e s about probable f u t u r e responses  increases.  to f u r t h e r gasoline p r i c e  T h e s e a r e i n both q u a n t i t a t i v e ( e s t i m a t e s o f r e d u c t i o n i n  use) and q u a l i t a t i v e ( s t r a t e g i e s t o cope w i t h g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g ) t e r m s . 3)  Q u e s t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o r e a s o n s f o r g o i n g t o the c o t t a g e and t o a l t e r -  native a c t i v i t i e s . 4)  G e n e r a l b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t the c o t t a g e r , h i s c o t t a g e ,  and  h i s t r i p t o the c o t t a g e . S i n c e the d a t a c o l l e c t e d a r e o f a w i d e l y v a r i e d n a t u r e s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t methods o f a n a l y s i s a r e r e q u i r e d .  F i r s t of a l l d i s t r i b u t i o n s  and mean v a l u e s f o r use b e f o r e and a f t e r p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e t a b u l a t e d f o r each subgroup i n order to d e f i n e the magnitude of the e f f e c t of past p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g e use.  Secondly the responses  to questions  r e g a r d i n g f u t u r e use a t g i v e n g a s o l i n e p r i c e s a r e a v e r a g e d w i t h i n each  25  group ( f o r each p r i c e ) i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a group e s t i m a t e o f f u t u r e response to a s p e c i f i e d p r i c e i n c r e a s e .  Next p r o f i l e d a t a  (socio-economic  v a r i a b l e s , l e n g t h o f ownership o f c o t t a g e e t c . ) a r e r e l a t e d t o p a s t r e s p o n s e t o g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s t o d e t e r m i n e what s o r t o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s ( i f any) e x i s t .  T h i s i s done by means o f s i m p l e b i - v a r i a t e  a n a l y s i s w i t h c h i - s q u a r e v a l u e s b e i n g c a l c u l a t e d t o check on t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f the r e s u l t s ;  The s o c i o - e c o n o m i c d a t a f o r each subgroup i s  compared t o o t h e r subgroups  i n order to determine i f s i g n i f i c a n t  v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t ( s u c h as lower income c o t t a g e r s g o i n g f a r t h e r t o t h e i r cottages, etc.).  A d i s t r i b u t i o n o f responses t o the questions r e l a t e d  to the reasons f o r c o t t a g i n g (and a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s ) i s given i n order t o i n v e s t i g a t e the secondary e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e increases o r r a t i o n i n g . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t a t t e n t i o n i s d i r e c t e d towards t h e e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e changes on c o t t a g i n g i n g e n e r a l and n o t s p e c i f i c a l l y towards t h e demand f o r c o t t a g e s ( i . e . t h e a c t i v i t y i s s t r e s s e d as opposed  to the o b j e c t ) . T h i s method o f d e r i v i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between g a s o l i n e p r i c e s  and c o t t a g i n g i s o b v i o u s l y dependant on t h e a c c u r a c y o f r e s p o n s e s t o hypothetical questions.  T h e r e f o r e i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o back up t h e s e  r e l a t i o n s h i p s with other data.  F o r t h i s r e a s o n a second q u e s t i o n n a i r e  was m a i l e d t o owners o f c o t t a g e s on Vancouver  Island.  T h i s was n o t  r e s t r i c t e d e n t i r e l y t o l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e r s ( i . e . some ocean f r o n t c o t t a g e r s were i n c l u d e d ) s i n c e t h e i n t e n t i o n i s s i m p l y t o u t i l i z e t h e s h a r p f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s o f l a s t summer as a proxy f o r g a s o l i n e p r i c e increases.  26  C o t t a g i n g a r e a s were s e l e c t e d from p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e , a p p r o p r i a t e t o p o g r a p h i c a l maps were c o n s u l t e d t o f i n d d i s t r i c t l o t numbers, and then the assessment  r o l e s were examined t o o b t a i n a sample o f Vancouver  c o t t a g e r s who r e s i d e d i n V a n c o u v e r . p a r t i c u l a r a r e a s on Vancouver  Island  S i n c e t h e r e do n o t appear t o be any  I s l a n d where l a r g e numbers o f V a n c o u v e r i t e s  have c o t t a g e s i t was n e c e s s a r y t o sample s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s . The a r e a s sampled were Q u a l i c u m Beach, Shawnigan Lake, and Lake Cowichan. These l o c a t i o n s were a l l lumped i n t o one sample s i n c e t h e r e i s n o t a g r e a t d e a l o f v a r i a t i o n among them i n terms o f d i s t a n c e from f e r r y t e r m i n a l s ( a t l e a s t n o t enough v a r i a t i o n t o be s i g n i f i c a n t i n terms o f travel cost).  The p o o l i n g o f a l l Vancouver  owned c o t t a g e s a t t h e s e a r e a s  p r o v i d e d a sample o f f o r t y c o t t a g e r s . As was the c a s e w i t h my o t h e r q u e s t i o n n a i r e two m a i l i n g s were c o n d u c t e d i n o r d e r t o i n c r e a s e the r a t e o f r e s p o n s e . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e was v e r y b r i e f .  I t asked a b o u t f r e q u e n c y o f  p a s t use o f the c o t t a g e ( p r i o r t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s ) and  frequency  o f p r e s e n t use o f the c o t t a g e i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e the e f f e c t s o f the f a r e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g e use.  Q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g f a m i l y income, v a l u e  o f t h e c o t t a g e , and l e n g t h o f ownership o f the c o t t a g e were a l s o asked i n o r d e r t o compare t h i s subgroup t o the o t h e r t h r e e subgroups  i n the  survey. The  a n a l y s i s of this data i s very simple.  Responses t o t h e  f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s a r e t a b u l a t e d i n d i s t r i b u t i o n form and mean use v a l u e s b e f o r e and a f t e r f a r e i n c r e a s e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . B i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s i s a l s o employed t o r e l a t e f a m i l y income t o r e c o r d e d  response.  27  These d e r i v e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e combined w i t h the r e s u l t s from the o t h e r t h r e e s u b g r o u p s i n o r d e r t o draw c o n c l u s i o n s .  i  28 CHAPTER  TWO  DESCRIPTION OF INFORMATION COLLECTED AND ANALYSIS OF DATA Questionnaire  Returns  Of a t o t a l o f 253 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w h i c h were m a i l e d f o r t h i s s t u d y 102 were r e t u r n e d . #1.  The r e t u r n s were d i s t r i b u t e d as shown i n T a b l e  The o v e r a l l r a t e o f r e t u r n o f 40 p e r c e n t i s q u i t e h i g h f o r a m a i l e d  q u e s t i o n n a i r e w h i c h i s n o t o f f i c i a l l y s a n c t i o n e d b u t i s by no means exceptional.  The r a t e o f r e t u r n o f 58 p e r c e n t f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d  subsample i s e x t r e m e l y h i g h .  T h i s i s a r e s u l t o f two f a c t o r s . The most  important reason i s that the f e r r y r a t e increase occurred  relatively  r e c e n t l y and was v e r y c o n t r o v e r s i a l . I t i s t h e s o r t o f i s s u e a b o u t w h i c h t h o s e a f f e c t e d take e v e r y c h a n c e p r e s e n t e d t o them t o comment on i t (including a research questionnaire).  The second r e a s o n f o r t h e h i g h  r e s p o n s e r a t e among t h i s subsample i s t h a t t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s e n t t o t h i s group was v e r y s h o r t . The number o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w h i c h c o u l d n o t be d e l i v e r e d by t h e p o s t o f f i c e was q u i t e low i n a l l c a s e s e x c e p t f o r t h e 330 m i l e subsample (Canim, C u l p h u r o u s ,  Deka l a k e s ) .  The a s s e s s m e n t r o l e f o r t h i s a r e a must  n o t have been u p d a t e d as r e c e n t l y as t h e o t h e r s . Nearly a l l o f the questionnaires returned i n d i c a t e d that the p r i m a r y p u r p o s e f o r o b t a i n i n g t h e c o t t a g e had been as a v a c a t i o n home and t h e r e f o r e were r e l e v a n t t o my s t u d y (90 p e r c e n t were bought f o r use as v a c a t i o n homes).  Only 2 p e r c e n t o f t h e r e t u r n e d  questionnaires  29 TABLE #1 QUESTIONNAIRE RETURNS  Sample Area (distance from Vancouver)  Number o f Cottagers Surveyed  Number o f Questionnaires which could not be d e l i v e r e d  Return from First Mai T i n g  Return from Second Mailing  Total Percent Return  70 m i l e s -Cultus Lake  75  3  25  7  43%  240 m i l e s -Loon Lake  63  5  17  4  33%  330 M i l e s -Canim, Deka,i Sulphurous Lakes  75  12  21  5  35%  Vancouver Island  40  1  22  1  58%  253  21  85  17  40%  Total  30 i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e owner now l i v e d f u l l t i m e a t t h e c o t t a g e ( o r f u l l for h a l f of the y e a r ) .  time  These few q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were n o t used i n t h e  a n a l y s i s s i n c e t h e y were n o t r e l e v a n t t o t h e s t u d y . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e s used i n t h e f i r s t m a i l i n g were i d e n t i f i a b l e from t h o s e used i n t h e s e c o n d .  I t was t h e r e f o r e p o s s i b l e t o compare  t h e r e s p o n s e s t o c e r t a i n key q u e s t i o n s between t h e s e two subsamples.  An  e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e r e t u r n s r e v e a l e d no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s between t h o s e who r e p l i e d t o t h e f i r s t m a i l i n g and t h o s e who r e p l i e d t o t h e s e c o n d .  I t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o p r o v e t h i s  ' s t a t i s t i c a l l y : due.:to:the.very low r e s p o n s e t o t h e s e c o n d m a i l i n g .  There-  f o r e t h e two groups were a n a l y s e d t o g e t h e r . Responses o f the C o t t a g e r s t o G a s o l i n e P r i c e I n c r e a s e s o f t h e L a s t Few Y e a r s A l t h o u g h t h e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o f t h e l a s t few y e a r s ( s p e c i f i c a l l y t h e a p p r o x i m a t e r e a l p r i c e r i s e o f 20 p e r c e n t between and 1976) have added o n l y a few d o l l a r s ( a b o u t $6.00 t o t h e r e a l  1974  round  t r i p c o s t t o the most d i s t a n t a r e a ) t o t h e c o s t o f t r a v e l l i n g t o t h e s e l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e a r e a s my r e s u l t s show t h a t t h e r e has been some e f f e c t on amount o f u s e .  F o r normal  weekends t h e d e c r e a s e i n number  o f t r i p s p e r y e a r ranged from o n l y 2 p e r c e n t f o r t h e C u l t u s Lake a r e a to 13 p e r c e n t f o r t h e Canim Lake a r e a .  (See T a b l e s #2, #3, and  #4)  These a p p e a r t o be r e a s o n a b l e r e s u l t s w i t h t h e r e b e i n g a l m o s t no change " ( i n the number o f t r i p s a t t h e c l o s e s t a r e a and t h e maximum r e s p o n s e o c c u r r i n g a t the f a r t h e s t area.  The c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a f o r h o l i d a y  weekends a l s o i n d i c a t e s a l o w e r r e s p o n s e a t C u l t u s Lake t h a n a t t h e two  31: TABLE #2.. TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 70 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f respondents) Number o f T r i p s Per Year 0 - 1 2 - 3 4 - 5 6 - 7 8 - 9 10 - 15 16 + Total Average % Reduction i n use  L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  1 2 2 6 1 5 11  1 2 2 3 2 6 11  28 10.7  28 10.9  2%  TABLE #3 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES1 - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 240 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f respondents) Number o f T r i p s Per Y e a r 0 2 4 6 8 10  +  1 3 5 7 9  Total Average % Reduction i n use  L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  6 3 1 2 2 3  5 4 1 1 2 4  16 4.4  16 4.8  8%  32 TABLE #4 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES - BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 330 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n of respondents) L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  14 4 2 1 0 2  12 4 4 1 0 2  Total Average  23 2.28  23 2.63  % R e d u c t i o n i n Use  13.3%  Number o f T r i p s Per Year 0 2 4 6 8 10  +  1 3 5 7 9  ( A v e r a g e v a l u e s f o r number o f t r i p s f o r T a b l e s #2, #3, and #4 were c a l c u l a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner: For v a l u e s (number o f t r i p s ) f r o m 0-9 a s t a n d a r d group mean p r o c e d u r e was used whereby t h e m i d p o i n t o f each group was m u l t i p l i e d by t h e number o f r e s p o n d e n t s i n t h a t group. In t h e 10+ group t h e number o f r e s p o n d e n t s was m u l t i p l i e d by 10. T h e s e numbers were t h e n summed and d i v i d e d by t h e t o t a l number o f r e s p o n d e n t s . )  33 more d i s t a n t a r e a s .  (See T a b l e s #5, #6, and #7)  The q u e s t i o n s  regarding  the number o f v i s i t s on e x t e n d e d v a c a t i o n each y e a r b e f o r e and a f t e r t h e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s seemed t o g e n e r a t e some c o n f u s i o n between number o f v i s i t s on e x t e n d e d v a c a t i o n and t o t a l number o f weeks o f e x t e n d e d vacation.  F o r t h i s r e a s o n i t was d i f f i c u l t t o a n a l y s e t h i s d a t a i n t h e  manner w h i c h was done f o r weekends and h o l i d a y weekends. d i d seem t o be one o f no a p p a r e n t change i n r e s p o n s e  The b a s i c t r e n d  to g a s o l i n e p r i c e  changes. I t i s o f c o u r s e p o s s i b l e t h a t some o f the i n d i v i d u a l changes i n amount o f use o v e r t h i s p e r i o d were due t o e x t r a n e o u s  f a c t o r s w h i c h by  c o i n c i d e n c e o c c u r r e d i n t h e same time p e r i o d as t h e g a s o l i n e p r i c e increases,  ( s u c h as change i n f a m i l y p r e f e r e n c e s  Responses o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d C o t t a g e s Ferry Fare Increases  etc.)  to  The o t h e r subsample o f c o t t a g e r s i n the s t u d y a l s o showed a s i g n i f i c a n t r e a c t i o n to increased costs of v i s i t i n g t h e i r cottage.  The  c o s t i n c r e a s e i n t h i s c a s e was more s u b s t a n t i a l ( f o r m a b o u t $26 r e t u r n t o $48 r e t u r n .  I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t a v e r a g e t o t a l g a s o l i n e c o s t s f o r t h e  most d i s t a n t group o f l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e r s have r i s e n from a b o u t $20 i n 1974 t o a b o u t $31 i n 1976.  T h e s e c o s t s a r e i n t h e same a b s o l u t e r a n g e  as the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s ' c o s t s w h i c h i s i m p o r t a n t t o t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o m p a r i s o n between g r o u p s . and c a l c u l a t i o n s b e h i n d t h e s e f i g u r e s . )  (See A p p e n d i x f o r t h e a s s u m p t i o n s T a b l e s #8 and #9 do show a  n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e t o the i n c r e a s e d f e r r y r a t e s w h i c h i n a b s o l u t e terms is  g r e a t e r than the r e s p o n s e s o f t h e m a i n l a n d  cottagers to g a s o l i n e  34 TABLE #5 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 70 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n of respondents) Number o f T r i p s Per Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6+ Total Average % R e d u c t i o n i n use  L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  0 2 8 7 6 3 3  0 1 8 4 8 3 5  19 3.3  19 3.6  8%  TABLE #6 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 240 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f respondents) Number o f T r i p s Per Year  L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  3 0 4 6 1 5  3 0 1 5 3 7  Total Average  19 2.9  19 3.4  % R e d u c t i o n i n use  15%  0 1 2 3 4 5+  35 TABLE #7 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO COTTAGES BEFORE AND AFTER GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES - 330 MILE SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f respondents) Number o f T r i p s Per Year  L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  4 6 6 3 3 2  4 1 9 5 2 3  Total Average  24 2.0  24 2.4  % R e d u c t i o n i n use  17%  0 1 2 3 4 5+  (These a v e r a g e s ( T a b l e s #5, #6, #7) were d e t e r m i n e d by t h e same method as was used f o r T a b l e s #2, #3, #4.)  36 TABLE #8 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKEND TRIPS TO THE COTTAGE BEFORE AND AFTER FERRY FARE INCREASES - VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) Number o f T r i p s Per Year  L a s t 12 Months  0 2 4 6 r 8 10+  8 6 3 1 3 2  1 3 5 7 9  Total Mean  23 3.7  % R e d u c t i o n i n use  31%  Before Price Increases 1 4 11 1 1 5 23 5.4  TABLE #9 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRIPS TO THE COTTAGEBEFORE AND AFTER FERRY FARE INCREASES -• VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s ) Number o f T r i p s Per Year  L a s t 12 Months  Before Price Increases  0 1 2 3 4 5+  10 1 5 2 4 1  5 0 6 5 3 4  Mean  23 1.7  % R e d u c t i o n i n use  35%  Total  23 2.6  37  price increases.  In r e l a t i v e terms t h e r e s p o n s e o f the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d  c o t t a g e r s t o t h e i n c r e a s e d f e r r y r a t e s was s m a l l e r than t h a t o f t h e i n t e r i o r cottagers to increased gasoline p r i c e s .  I t was e x p e c t e d  that  the r e v e r s e would be t r u e s i n c e the f e r r y f a r e s r e p r e s e n t a much h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l t r a v e l c o s t s t o the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s than do g a s o l i n e c o s t s t o t h e i n t e r i o r c o t t a g e r s . c i a t i o n and  (Automobile  depre-  m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s a r e u s u a l l y equal t o o r g r e a t e r than  gasoline costs.)  The r e l a t i v e r e s p o n s e s o f t h e v a r i o u s  subgroups of  c o t t a g e r s t o the i n c r e a s e s i n t r a v e l c o s t s i s shown i n T a b l e #10 i n the form o f p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r t r i p s t o t h e c o t t a g e .  One  pos-  s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s can be f o u n d i n p e o p l e ' s r e a c t i o n s t o inflation.  The f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e o c c u r r e d i n s t a n t a n e o u s l y and  thus  t h e f u l l d o l l a r amount o f t h e i n c r e a s e was p r o b a b l y seen as a r e a l p r i c e increase.  ( A t most i t c o u l d be argued t h a t from the c o t t a g e r s ' p o i n t o f  view t h e f a r e i n c r e a s e took p l a c e o v e r the e i g h t month p e r i o d from September 1975 when the p r e v i o u s summer's heavy use season ended t o A p r i l , 1976 when t h e i n c r e a s e s took e f f e c t . However, d e f l a t i n g the f a r e i n c r e a s e s t o a c c o u n t f o r t h i s e i g h t months o f i n f l a t i o n changes t h e r e s u l t s very l i t t l e . )  On t h e o t h e r hand t h e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s  took p l a c e o v e r a two y e a r p e r i o d i n w h i c h the r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n high.  was  The p r e v i o u s l y m e n t i o n e d p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s were c a l c u l a t e d w i t h  r e s p e c t to the d e f l a t e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s .  These p r i c e i n c r e a s e s  were l e s s than h a l f o f t h e a c t u a l p r i c e r i s e i n d o l l a r t e r m s .  The  p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s as c a l c u l a t e d w i t h u n d e f l a t e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e as f o l l o w s :  38 TABLE #10 PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR TRIPS TO COTTAGES ( w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e p r i c e o f g a s o l i n e and f e r r y f a r e s o n l y ) Long Weekends  Subgroup  Weekends  Vancouver I s l a n d  -0.36  -0.41  70 m i l e  -0.10  -0.38  240 m i l e  -0.39  -0.71  330 m i l e  -0.64  -0.83  Sample c a l c u l a t i o n : Vancouver I s l a n d - W e e k e n d s ) P r i c e - $26 -* $48 Quantity -  E = % Change i n Quantity % Change i n P r i c e = 85% i n c r e a s e  5.4 -> 4.7 = 31% d e c r e a s e E = 31% 85%  = -0.36  33  330 M i l e Sample - Weekends - E = -.22  H o l i d a y weekends E =  T.36  240 M i l e Sample - Weekends - E = -.15  H o l i d a y weekends E =  -.39  70 M i l e Sample - Weekends - E = -.06  H o l i d a y weekends E =  -.18  T h e s e v a l u e s compare much more c l o s e l y t o t h o s e c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d c o t t a g e s ( e x c e p t o f c o u r s e f o r t h e 70 M i l e sample w h i c h i s n o t d i r e c t l y c o m p a r a b l e t o the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d sample due t o t h e much s m a l l e r magnitude o f t o t a l t r a v e l c o s t s i n the 70 m i l e g r o u p .  In  r e a l i t y i t i s p r o b a b l y t r u e t h a t t h e c o t t a g e r ' s p e r c e p t i o n o f the m a g n i t u d e o f t h e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s i s somewhere between t h e i r r e a l amount and t h e i r u n d e f l a t e d amount.  This data suggests  t h a t the  c o t t a g e r s tend t o i g n o r e the m o d e r a t i n g e f f e c t s o f i n f l a t i o n on price increases to a large extent. experienced  W h i l e the r e s p o n d e n t s may  the  have  some income changes i n t h i s p e r i o d t h e s e p r o b a b l y would have  been upward w h i c h r e i n f o r c e s the p r e c e d i n g s t a t e m e n t a b o u t i n f l a t i o n . One a s p e c t o f t h i s d a t a w h i c h was r a t h e r u n e x p e c t e d i s t h a t the percentage  decrease  than the p e r c e n t a g e  i n number o f t r i p s on h o l i d a y weekends was decrease  greater  i n number o f t r i p s on r e g u l a r weekends.  T h i s was t r u e f o r a l l f o u r s u b g r o u p s .  I t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e  c o t t a g e r s would v a l u e h o l i d a y weekends more h i g h l y s i n c e t h e y them to spend an e x t r a day a t t h e c o t t a g e .  allowed  I t may be t h a t c o t t a g e r s  f i n d h o l i d a y weekends f r u s t r a t i n g due t o crowded highways and  ferry  l i n e u p s and t h e r e f o r e v a l u e r e g u l a r weekends more h i g h l y . As was corresponding  shown p r e v i o u s l y ( i n T a b l e s #2-#9) t h e r e d u c t i o n i n use t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s was  both p e r c e n t a g e s  s i g n i f i c a n t l y greater (in  and a b s o l u t e terms) i n t h e t h r e e s u b g r o u p s f o r w h i c h  40 t r a v e l c o s t was a l r e a d y s u b s t a n t i a l than f o r t h e 70 M i l e g r o u p where t r a v e l c o s t i s v e r y low.  This i s important s i n c e i t suggests  that  n e a r l y a l l o f the r e p o r t e d r e d u c t i o n i n use was a r e s u l t o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e o r f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s and was n o t due t o t h e r a t h e r p o o r w e a t h e r o f the 1976 summer s e a s o n .  T a b l e #11  summarizes some a s p e c t s  of the poor weather s i t u a t i o n which p r e v a i l e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d . g e n e r a l p i c t u r e i s one o f bad w e a t h e r t h r o u g h o u t  The  the province with  c o a s t a l and i n t e r i o r r e g i o n s both f a r i n g p o o r l y . The q u e s t i o n r e g a r d i n g e x t e n d e d v a c a t i o n was worded d i f f e r e n t l y on t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d q u e s t i o n n a i r e than i t was on t h e  mainland  c o t t a g e r s ' q u e s t i o n n a i r e and t h e r e f o r e the r e s u l t s c o u l d be t a b u l a t e d . (See T a b l e #12)  I t i s a p p a r e n t from r e a d i n g a d d i t i o n a l comments w r i t t e n  on some o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t h a t t h i s d e c r e a s e i n number o f weeks' v a c a t i o n a f t e r the f e r r y f a r e s i n c r e a s e s was  l a r g e l y due t o a few  f a m i l i e s who were i n the h a b i t o f moving to t h e c o t t a g e f o r the e n t i r e summer s c h o o l b r e a k w i t h the head o f t h e h o u s e h o l d on weekends and i n V a n c o u v e r d u r i n g the week.  l i v i n t a t the cottage  Therefore i t i s rather  d o u b t f u l i f the f a r e i n c r e a s e s had much e f f e c t on e x t e n d e d v a c a t i o n  use.  C o t t a g e r s A n t i c i p a t e d Responses t o F u t u r e Gasoline P r i c e Increases Q u e s t i o n #6 on t h e l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e r ' s q u e s t i o n n a i r e  attempted  t o g e t a d i r e c t measure o f the c o t t a g e r s ' a n t i c i p a t e d r e s p o n s e s gasoline price increases.  The r e s p o n s e s  s u b g r o u p s i n d i c a t e d t h a t most r e s p o n d e n t s  t o t h e 330 m i l e and 240 (81 p e r c e n t and 76  to f u t u r e mile  percent  r e s p e c t i v e l y ) a t l e a s t took t h e time t o c o n s i d e r the i n t e n t o f the  41: TABLE #11 CLIMATIC DATA FOR THE SUMMER OF 1976  May  Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) Shawnigan Lake Kamloops Loon Lake 100 M i l e House  June  Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) Shawnigan Lake Kamloops Loon Lake 100 M i l e House  56,'6 55.4 62.6 52.4 53.1  - 2.9 - 3.1 - 2.6  2.17 1.40 1.34 1 .98 2.59  .39 .03 .03  July  Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) Shawnigan Lake Kamloops 100 M i l e House  62.4 61 .0 68.6 58.1  -•1.0 - 2.0 - 1.4  0.91 0.59 2.28 2.25  - .26 - .29 1.31  Vancouver ( A i r p o r t ) Shawnigan Lake Kamloops Loon Lake 100 M i l e House  60.6 60.0 63.5 58.2 56.3  - 2.1 - 2.6 - 4.0  2.91 2.37 4.47 3.32 1.96  August  Location  Precipitation Total Difference Amount from Normal  Temperature Mean Difference Daily from Normal (°F) - 1.4 52.9 51.3 - 1.9 58.4 0.2 50.1 49.4  Month  II  1.03 0.63 .14  2.90 2.06 1.04  1  1.45 1.39 3.38  1.80" f e l l i n one d a y - t h u s t h e r e s t o f t h e month was v e r y d r y . ( S i m i l a r d i s t r i b u t i o n s were n o t e d f o r Loon Lake and 100 M i l e House)  TABLE # 12 TOTAL ANNUAL NUMBER OF WEEKS OF VACATION SPENT AT THE COTTAGE - BEFORE AND AFTER FERRY FARE INCREASES VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP.  Number o f Weeks of Vacation 0-1 - 3 4-5 6-7 8+ Total Mean  L a s t 12 Months 2 6 9 3 3 23 4.34  Before Increases 1 6 8 3 5 23 4.8  43 q u e s t i o n and make some e s t i m a t e o f t h e i r f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r u n d e r t h e conditions listed.  The r e s p o n s e s o f t h e s e two s u b g r o u p s a r e shown i n  T a b l e s #13 and #14.  A g a i n t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some c o n f u s i o n between  number o f t r i p s on e x t e n d e d v a c a t i o n and number o f weeks o f v a c a t i o n b u t the o v e r a l l t r e n d seems t o be one o f l i t t l e change w i t h gas p r i c e s .  The  c o t t a g e r s i n t h e 70 m i l e  s u b g r o u p showed v e r y l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n t h i s  question (understandably,  s i n c e t h e y would n o t be a f f e c t e d g r e a t l y ) w i t h  o n l y 32 p e r c e n t o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s respondents  f i l l i n g out the t a b l e .  Two  other  made comments a d j a c e n t t o the q u e s t i o n t h a t i f p r i c e s con-  t i n u e d t o r i s e t h e y would be f o r c e d t o s e l l t h e i r c o t t a g e s .  There i s  a s t r o n g l i k e l i h o o d t h a t t h e low r e s p o n s e r a t e t o the q u e s t i o n w i l l be a source of b i a s .  I t was f e l t t h a t many o f t h o s e who  thought  gasoline  p r i c e i n c r e a s e s would n o t a f f e c t t h e i r use o f t h e i r c o t t a g e d i d n o t answer t h i s q u e s t i o n whereas most o f t h o s e who d i d t h i n k i t would a f f e c t t h e i r use o f t h e i r c o t t a g e d i d answer. a n a l y z e the r e s p o n s e s  T h e r e f o r e i t was  decided not to  to t h i s q u e s t i o n by t h e 70 m i l e s u b g r o u p .  F o r t h e most p a r t t h e d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n t h e s e t a b l e s (#13 #14)  and  a p p e a r r e a s o n a b l e w i t h the o n l y i n c o n s i s t e n c y b e i n g t h a t the a v e r a g e  e s t i m a t e d number o f weekend t r i p s per y e a r f o r t h e c o t t a g e r s i n t h e m i l e subgroup a t a g a s o l i n e p r i c e o f $1.00  240  per g a l l o n i s g r e a t e r than  the number c u r r e n t l y b e i n g made (See T a b l e s #13 and #3).  Figures  #2,  #3, and #4 show t h a t a t p r i c e l e v e l s r e l a t i v e l y near t o t h o s e o f t h e p r e s e n t ( i . e . under $1.50  per g a l l o n ) r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s e s w i l l  f a i r l y s i m i l a r to t h a t experienced extreme p r i c e ranges  i n the p a s t .  be  I t i s only i n the  ($2-$3) p e r g a l l o n t h a t the c o t t a g e r s i n d i c a t e t h e y  44 TABLE #13 ANTICIPATED RESPONSES TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICES (240 M i l e subsample)  GASOLINE COSTS  ESTIMATED NUMBER OF V I S I T S PER YEAR  Per G a l l o n  Weekends (mean)  Round t r i p g a s o l i n e c o s t f o r 240 m i l e one way t r i p @ 20 m i l e s p e r g a l .  $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $3.00  $33.00 50.00 66.00 100.00  4.9 3.5 2.5 2.0  Holiday Weekends (Mean) 2.7 2.3 1 .6 1.2  TABLE #14 ANTICIPATED RESPONSES TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICES (330 m i l e subsample)  GASOLINE COSTS  ESTIMATED NUMBER OF V I S I T S PER YEAR  Per G a l l o n  Weekends (Mean)  $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $3.00  Round t r i p g a s o l i n e c o s t f o r 330 m i l e one way t r i p @ 20 m i l e s p e r g a l . $33.00 50.00 66.00 100.00  1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6  Hoiiday (Mean)  2.0 1.9 1.3 0.8  FIGURE #2 PAST RESPONSE AND ANTICIPATED FUTURE RESPONSES.TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (24-0 M i l e s u b g r o u p ) " i1 V -"j F r - | - '-f • " i " i ! r j I J . , 1 u! 1 I i I M M . . ! _ i i i _J i ! i "] i | | : j r •i i 1 ! ! ! ! I ; i ; ,1 .1 J..J [.„!. _ _ . it 1 i i i i j j 1 '! 1 1 " t i ~ [ " i.- i | i ! i 1 | i i i i i ! i i! ! j ; M ! M H I M ! J__j I L — ] I j ; j 1 i 1 i , j | ] 1 ! i : iI i i " H i !"" — 1 | i 1 I i 1 1 j _.!_.._ M M 1 Ii ^ _L.i_.L ii ! ;i i i I i i ..! ! , i. ! • 1 I ! ! i i ... i 1 ! L 4i ( — > i_; 1 ; j j j ! 1 i ! i : M M M M ! 1 i M M ' M i i i i 1 • ! ii i ; i j ! ; j ] i M M i M ! M i i ; I iI M M M ! 1 M M i l 1 1 ! 1 i 1 ' ! ! !• i ' i I ! ] 1 M i i i i i i 1M 1 i M i 1 i 1 1 M 1 "j M | i 1 : 1 1_ i _ L 1 ! j ! i j . 1i i l ; j l1 1 i! | iI ! ! • • 11 , l j 1 I i i . : 1 i i 'i i ! I 1 I 1 1 I j I —ii j I 1 ! j _J i u 1 ; i i i 1 l 1 ! 1 i ! i ' ! i 1 ! 1 M I ! i L i •i i : ii ? . . . . | 1 i\ M i l 1 ] _ ! _ ! !_!_, 1 L L L UU_I T i i ! ! \ 1 1 j i M i I M In i 1 \r i 1 \ i i 1 I i i I i ! i _ l _ j _ _ L _ J L _L. — M i l l __i i i i n n i i i — i ! ! ! :i j 1 ; __l ; ! . !! !i ! 1 i M ! 1 1 jI I | i i • i! 1 i i i V M M i i i ii "\; j ; ; Ii I .I i! . i i , 1 i M i M ! i i ! i 1 1 i i \ i ; ! . 1 , Li L . 'i .. : j '_. ' '- ' i 1 i i M M 1 I I i 1 1 i \ i i i.A i ' ! i i i • j_J t L M i l ! I i j 1 j .1_ ...J : i \ ! i i !\ i i ; . \ i 1 1 i V i M M i M ! i ! i i M 1 M i ! 1 i | :\ 1 — t — i i i ! • 1 ! ! • i | ! M M M \ M i 1 1 o i • • • •—-• ; i: — — V — r — s • I ! I i i 1 1 !M M ! i — ...Gasoline i ! \ ' i 1 i M M M ! !; 1 j ! ; i |•i \ I\ \I \ ! i > Price ' \ ' ! ' 1 i i i ! ! : | | i 1\I 11 ,—i—:—\-—J—f i ._.($: p e r j 1 I i : 1 I | !1 L iL | I M A M 1 M M ^ ! 1 ; 1. \ ! i \ J i l iI _ i L i i _ i i1 1 i i IJ M ..: V i i 1 \ l ! ] i i | ]I l j • I M | . 1 ! M l ! — t — — -^*V 1 1 ; ;1 v j i s M i l l I 1 M l i ! v . 1 I 1 ; i j i \ I i ! ! I 1 1i i 1 1 t [ i s. T M l • i : " M M ! ! i ! i > j i ^! 1 l 1 1 i i i— ; i 4 - 1 ,,—-—.i . ! 1 ! I 1i i l l ! i 1 1 i i •—i I 1 — - 1 j _« _ _ 4— V! 1 I1 — i i i 1 i 1 ! I i 1 1 • iI i i I ii , -j1 ! t i i j i — — i 1 1 - i ' ! i — 1 ; — _i 1 — ._ 1 ! 1 i | i j ! i ' 1 1 i 1 1' j. j 1 1 . 1 -1-6-JL 1 l L. i — -» d- • •! j 1 1 T + f j _i i M 1 --1.1 1 i — I — I Weekendj A — J l i I I i TOV'R 'OF TRTPS PER 1 i is m — i - i i j ! i i H o l i d a y ; W e e k e n d s _j i 1 I T i I• •i I * . — _i ~ * — — i -j— r j! I 1 ! i i I i 1 i I i !i ' • I I I ' ! i 1 1 1 ! 1  |  1  1  1  !  1  1  1  V  1  1  R  1  1  \-rfi  1  FIGURE #3 - PAST RESPONSES AND ANTICIPATED FUTURE RESPONSES TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (330 M i l e s u b g r o u p ) 1  "1  i  1  • ! ! '  i  I  i  i  i  i  i  i  !  1 1 i  I  i  j  i i  i 1 1 • 1  I  r  1  1  j  i  I  j  '  I  i1 '  s• i\  i \  \ 1  |  i • i  |  |  I —Gasoline —trice-  i i i  i  i  V I \ 1 —\\ i A ! l i\ M  j  \  i  !  V  i  l i 1 I ! i 1  | |  !  i  I  j.  \  j  ! 1  u  i i \  i  \  ;  . I ji '  ! j i l l !  1  i  i i !• ' I 1 !i  !  !  I  1 1  i  A j—!—< > i  j  \  !  \  T A—  i  —  (  :  j 1 j  !  1 1 1  r j •i  '  !  :  : j ! ,  '  i  i !  1  ;  i i  !  : I  1  1  1  ;—,—!  1  M M  !  . •  i  '  j I  i  I  :  j  i  ! i ! — -  : •— R  M  ! •  i . i ' : i • i ! 1 ! ! M M M —i—•  M M M i ! .M M M i M • i ; i i M M !M M  1  i 1  i 1  : .  •  1  !  i • i '! i ! ' ' 'M  1 M 1 M  1  i  ; j  j 1 • •' :  :  —  ii  1  !  1  1 i ; i ! ,  1  .  >•  1  1  —  r  i  , t  i —  —  *»—  i  M^  I  i i  1 —  !  i  1  i  —  I-  j I i i  I  1  |  ! ._  ! i i - IN 1  I  ~t—,—t— —  i  —  l_L_4_  —  | 1—  —  i  \  i  i  [  1  i  1  i  1  !  V i V 1 \ I ! i . _:.v !. l i ! V 1 !• 1 i *  i  '  !  !  >-  i 1 1 i : | ! 1-i ! _ 1 i ! 1 i '• ! ! I i 1 ! ! ! I i 1 1 i !  i  k :  :  i !  I  !  i • • '  '  !  ! I i1 ii  i  1  i  i 1  L_\-_L  '  •  i  J  I i j i  • •  :  ;  ( 1 i 1 i  !  i  :  ! i [ I : 1 \ ! i i ! i i r\. : 1 ! 1  M  11 i  i  ,  i • j*  ;  1  !\ ! ! 1 A 1 1 1 v r • !1 !1 " :\ v! iI  '  |  ! j  i\rr I  ~T  :  •  I i  i •!  \i  \  t i  — ($ p e r — g a 11 on-; -  ;  1  I I I !  i  i  !  1  ,  :  \  L. —  ; M M ! M l  1  ,  i ! 1 i i 1 i ! :  ! ^ !  \\ i  I  |  i  \ -\  _i_L_i  ! 1 ! ' •!  1 i it 1  |  I  ii  1 "A" i "I V v 1  !  i  1  I  i  i  \  i  i  i  M  ;  I  1  M  •i  :  1  1  !  !  i i  1 i  i  1  i i | | | I : ! I i j : ! i i ! i I ' ; ' i I > i. : . 1 i ! ! : ' i M ! i !' ; 1 i 1 ! I ! i  i  i  i 1  i  i •  i  ;  i  • i  i  ||  l j  1  i  i ' i  • i. 1 i i  ——j  i  I  ! ; ' i .'! i i _ 1 1 ! i ' i 1 1 M M M I I j '  i I  _LI ! i 1 | |  I  i....  ----  r ..i.. i  i  ,45  !  i i i  1 1  I  j  i  j 1  111 I"  >-~i !  |  1 1  i I |  .i ii i  [  I  1  I L.  ! ! 4 -  M  1 —;  1  ]  1  1  — r  -  .  T  _  I  i  i  i  J i  j !  Holiday_Weekends_..j J L I i i 1 i j — i i— ! i i' I 1 i  1  1 1  !  i  ! 1 1 1 1 1 11  ! E J - ~ Weekends ! 1  i  FIGURE # T - PAST RESPONSES TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (70 M i l e s u b g r o u p )  -  —  —  1 1  - r r -  —  1 1 | 1  | i I  r " I!  |  | I i  |  —p>~ !  1 1  r~—  i  1 j i  i 1 i ;i • j! i I ! ! i I i ; j | i ; | I  —  " i r ! i ! (Taft'ol i n e r r r 1 Price I i i i per r j --gal-lon-)i— — 1  1  T  i  I i—  —  —  1  i  I  i  1  r  j  !  i  1  i  1  M  '.  i  t  '  i  :  —  M : : ! ii M M i ! ; j ' ! ' ' 1 .1.J. ' ' ;  1  :  ;  M  ;  1 i  ;  M  !  !  1  :  ;  :  1  1 M M M M !' M M — ! ! ! I T l t r ! i I | ! I ! i I ] ji M i ' l l ! !! i ! : ' ;: j i 1 i 1 i 1 L . i i i i I! • i i i I i i ! M ! M M ! 1 i ! i ' " I T ! i i 1 1 ...... ! . . .. ! ! . : ! ! 1 1 1 •i I Ij Ii ! i1• 1 j i • 1 ... | .. 1i i — r 1 r1 1 i 1 \  1  : i  : M  :  M •I  :  i —  i .  :  l  1 .  i •'  •  1  |  i i  r  1  ]  '•  j  j. i  _ J_L j M M M ! j ; j — 1 ! i i M . i ..-! ! 1 i 1 M 1 M  1  i  1  • •! i.  ! i 1 j j 1 1 • i ! !• 1 n  \  —  1  i  1  •III' I 1. i j ;  ! ! 1i i l l ! ! i 1 i  i ! 1 !j M ! - .  1  1  i 1  I J U _' — i J-...I M : ; , ...i L ! _ 4 1 i M . . __\ \ -i j; 1 M ! M : . i ! ! •i ! •i i M MM J. : i 1 M M \ 1 M ; j . • : i l l 1 1 1i ;t 1 : ! : ^ • ; • —j ~! M M . M • ..M1 ; M1 i ! i i i ' .1 • . M ; ; ' i | | . i ; , : j  1 ! .  i  ;  j I —1—.j_ i r  i_—1—j-  ii 1 | j I' • • 1 ; \ ' 1 i • M M ! ! 1 i M i i. M  !  i i  ! 1  i  i  ;  1  ! j  1-  ! ! i 1 i M 1 ! \ M ! 'M M I| 1I ij •1 11 J L : 1 1 1 I ; 1 ! ! 1 M M 1 1 M M 1I •. -j i l !  ! f 1  i 1 j  i  1  1  j  1 i  — r — i  i  i .  11 !  j | - 1i — x .!~ i i _' L ! . ! '. i"! ' i ! 1 ; ; 1 ~1 j 1  . . _. j-  ! i  !  -—•  i  1  !  i  i i 1 i  !  i- 1  — »  i  i  —i  1  i  I  i  ..!.—  —  ';  .1  !  i'  \ 1  i i1  1  1  1  , 1]  I  -A  — —  |  !  —  t i1 1  —  . —  1  —  i 1 ! - 1 | | 1 !k \ j  2  I I I 1 DUMBER r ._. T 1  1i 1  O F  - ! ; T R I P S  i . J- i ! 1 1 1 1 J i I M M "4"<Y~: 1 : i j j Id | j i j j i i - Weekends - • i — r H o l i d a y Weelcenc 1  1  !  1 6  1 i 1  .P E R J Y E A R  l  1 !  j ! it j i.i 1 !  1  1  (  „  M i l l  M  l  !  L _ L  48  w i l l behave d i f f e r e n t l y from how t h e y have i n t h e p a s t .  This  moderation  i n r e s p o n s e t o g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a t h i g h e r p r i c e l e v e l s i s t o be e x p e c t e d s i n c e as c o t t a g e use a p p r o a c h e s z e r o the c o t t a g e r w i l l become more aware o f h i s c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t  probably  i n t h e c o t t a g e and w i l l want  to g e t some use o u t o f i t even i f i t i s e x p e n s i v e t o do so ( a l s o a t t h i s p o i n t i t w i l l o b v i o u s l y be v e r y d i f f i c u l t to s e l l the c o t t a g e ) . p r i c e s become s u f f i c i e n t l y h i g h the c o t t a g e r w i l l be m o t i v a t e d  As to take  s t e p s o t h e r than m e r e l y making f e w e r t r i p s i n o r d e r t o e c o n o m i z e (use s m a l l e r c a r s , c a r p o o l s , e t c . ) . Thus some m o d e r a t i o n h i g h e r p r i c e l e v e l s a r e r e a c h e d i s t o be e x p e c t e d .  i n response  as  For purposes of  c o m p a r i s o n F i g u r e s #5 and #6 r e l a t e t o t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d r e s p o n s e i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s t o the r e c o r d e d r e s p o n s e among t h e  to  mainland  cottagers. The p r i m a r y v a l u e o f t h i s p a r t o f the a n a l y s i s ( a n t i c i p a t e d responses  t o f u t u r e g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s ) has been t o show t h a t o u r  p a s t p r i c e r e s p o n s e d a t a c a n n o t be e x t r a p o l a t e d i n d e f i n i t e l y on a s t r a i g h t line basis.  I t p r o v i d e d an e s t i m a t e o f how f a r p a s t d a t a can be e x t r a -  p o l a t e d w i t h r e l i a b i l i t y as w e l l as an i n d i c a t i o n o f what t o e x p e c t beyond t h i s p o i n t .  F o r t u n a t e l y the response  to questions  regarding  p a s t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s and t o t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s was q u i t e good and t h e r e f o r e i t i s p o s s i b l e t o use a l l t h r e e s o u r c e s  of  d a t a to p r o j e c t the e f f e c t s o f the g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on c o t t a g i n g . T h i s i s v e r y f o r t u n a t e s i n c e i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o come t o c o n c l u s i o n s w i t h o u t r e l y i n g too h e a v i l y on d a t a g e n e r a t e d by answers t o h y p o t h e t i c a l questions.  FIGURE #5 - RESPONSES OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MAINLAND COTTAGERS TO INCREASED TRAVEL COSTS (weekends)  • 49  FIGURE #6 - RESPONSES OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MAINLAND COTTAGERS TO INCREASED TRAVEL COSTS ( h o l i d a y weekends)  "50  51 T a b l e s #15,  #16,  and #17 show t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s  range o f r e a c t i o n s t o f u t u r e e n e r g y s h o r t a g e s .  Many r e s p o n d e n t s seem  t o p r e f e r a s t r a t e g y o f s w i t c h i n g t o a s m a l l e r c a r and present d r i v i n g patterns.  T h i s i s to be e x p e c t e d  continuing  s i n c e i t would i n v o l v e  the l e a s t d i s r u p t i o n of t h e i r c o t t a g i n g h a b i t s .  The use o f p u b l i c t r a n s -  p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h t h e c o t t a g e d i d not seem t o be a v e r y p o p u l a r g e s t i o n b u t s e v e r a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e s had comments m e n t i o n i n g was no p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a i t o n t o t h e i r c o t t a g e .  to a  sug-  that there  Thus i t i s n o t c l e a r i f  the r e a s o n f o r the n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e t o t h e i d e a o f p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o c o t t a g e s i s b e c a u s e o f a d i s l i k e f o r p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n to cottage areas o r because i t i s p r e s e n t l y not p o s s i b l e to take p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n to the  cottage.  No s i n g l e s t r a t e g y f o r d e a l i n g w i t h the c o n f l i c t between g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g and c o t t a g e use was a c c e p t e d by a l l .  Rather i t appears that  most p e o p l e were r a t h e r u n c e r t a i n a b o u t w h i c h o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t h e y would f a v o u r and t h a t a t y p i c a l r e a c t i o n would p r o b a b l y combine a l l f o u r . T a b l e #18 shows v a r i o u s d e t a i l s a b o u t t h e t r i p t o the c o t t a g e s u c h as s i z e o f c a r , number o f p e o p l e i n t h e c a r f o r t h e t r i p , a v e r a g e gas . mileage,  e t c . , b r o k e n down by s u b g r o u p .  It i s evident that  those  c o t t a g e r s i n the most d i s t a n t subgroup use the l a r g e s t c a r s and c o n s e q u e n t l y g e t p o o r e r gas m i l e a g e than t h o s e w i t h c o t t a g e s n e a r e r  to  Vancouver. The d a t a c o l l e c t e d a l s o shows t h a t t h e use o f s m a l l e r c a r s i s a d i s t i n c t p o s s i b i l i t y f o r many o f the c o t t a g e r s .  (See T a b l e #18)  The  evidence to support t h i s statement i s t h a t i n a l l three subgroups there  52  8.  TABLE #15 RESPONSES TO THE IDEA OF FUTURE GASOLINE RATIONING 70 MILE SUBGROUP In t h e e v e n t o f a f u t u r e e n e r g y s h o r t a g e w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g , w h i c h o f t h e f o l l o w i n g would y o u do? P l e a s e c h e c k under the a p p r o p r i a t e column.  DEFINITELY 4  PROBABLY  UNLIKELY  9  7  2  4  2  2  11  4  8  7  0  0  0  C o n t i n u e t o u s e a c a r as r e g u l a r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n t h e c i t y and d i s c o n t i n u e ( o r d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e t h e number o f t r i p s t o t h e cottage. Use p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h t h e c o t tage. Switch p r i m a r i l y t o p u b l i c t r a n s i t ; i n the c i t y and c o n t i n u e t o d r i v e t o y o u r c o t t a g e . S w i t c h t o a s m a l l e r , more e c o n o m i c a l c a r and c o n t i n u e p r e s e n t d r i v i n g p a t t e r n s . Other, please s p e c i f y  TABLE #16  8.  RESPONSES TO THE IDEA OF FUTURE GASOLINE RATIONING 240 MILE SUBGROUP In t h e e v e n t o f a f u t u r e e n e r g y s h o r t a g e w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g , w h i c h o f t h e f o l l o w i n g would y o u do? P l e a s e c h e c k under t h e a p p r o p r i a t e column.  DEFINITELY 3  PROBABLY UNLIKELY 4 . 7  0  0  10  3  7  4  2  10  2  0  0  0  C o n t i n u e t o u s e a c a r as r e g u l a r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n t h e c i t y and d i s c o n t i n u e ( o r d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e t h e number o f ) t r i p s t o t h e cottage. Use p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h t h e cottage. Switch p r i m a r i l y t o p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n the c i t y and c o n t i n u e t o d r i v e t o y o u r c o t t a g e . S w i t c h t o a s m a l l e r , more e c o n o m i c a l c a r and continue present d r i v i n g patterns. Other, please s p e c i f y  53 TABLE #17 DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONSES TO THE IDEA OF FUTURE GASOLINE RATIONING - 330 MILE SUBGROUP 8.  In t h e e v e n t o f a f u t u r e e n e r g y s h o r t a g e w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n g a s o l i n e r a t i o n i n g , w h i c h o f t h e f o l l o i w n g would y o u do? P l e a s e c h e c k u n d e r the a p p r o p r i a t e column.  DEFINITELY 5  PROBABLY 7  1  2  2  6  5  10  0  1  UNLIKELY C o n t i n u e t o u s e a c a r as r e g u l a r t r a n s 10 p o r t a t i o n i n t h e c i t y and d i s c o n t i n u e ( o r d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e t h e number o f ) t r i p s to the cottage. 11 Use p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o r e a c h t h e cottage. Switch p r i m a r i l y to p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n 7 the c i t y and c o n t i n u e t o d r i v e t o y o u r cottage. S w i t c h t o a s m a l l e r , more e c o n o m i c a l c a r 4 and c o n t i n u e _ p r e s e h t d r i v i n q p a t t e r n s . 0 Other, please s p e c i f y  54 TABLE #18 DETAILS ABOUT THE TRIP TO THE COTTATE ( D i s t r i b u t i o n o f responses) NUMBER OF PEOPLE NORMALLY IN THE CAR FOR THE TRIP TO THE COTTAGE 2 or less 3 - 4 5 o r more  70 MILE SUBGROUP  240 MILE SUBGROUP  330 MILE SUBGROUP  14 10 3  13 7 0  11 15 0  18 5 4  12 4 4  20 3 3  20.6  21.9  17.9  SIZE OF CAR USED FOR THE TRIP TO THE COTTAGE Full size car (or truck) Compact Subcompact GAS MILEAGE OBTAINED ON THE TRIP TO THE COTTAGE Mean  55 a r e a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f r e s p o n d e n t s  who r e p o r t o n l y two p e o p l e  t r a v e l l i n g to the cottage i n a f u l l s i z e d car.  The s w i t c h t o s m a l l e r  c a r s i s l e s s o f a p o s s i b i l i t y f o r t h e c o t t a g e r s a t t h e most d i s t a n t a r e a (330 m i l e ) s i n c e t h e y g e n e r a l l y have more p a s s e n g e r s  on t h e t r i p .  ( T h i s i s r e a s o n a b l e s i n c e i t i s a newer c o t t a g e a r e a [ s e e T a b l e 30] and t h e r e f o r e i t i s more l i k e l y t o be used by f a m i l i e s w i t h c h i l d r e n than a r e t h e o t h e r a r e a s . )  The c o t t a g e r s a t t h e two c l o s e r a r e a s have  a l r e a d y made more o f a s w i t c h t o s m a l l e r , more e c o n o m i c a l  c a r s than have  t h o s e a t t h e 330 m i l e a r e a . T a b l e s #15 - #17 i n d i c a t e t h a t u s i n g s m a l l e r c a r s t o r e a c h t h e c o t t a g e was r e g a r d e d w i t h a b o u t equal f a v o u r by a l l t h r e e g r o u p s .  How-  e v e r t h i s i s r e a s o n a b l e s i n c e more o f t h e c o t t a g e r s a t t h e c l o s e r a r e a s a l r e a d y use s m a l l c a r s and thus t h e i r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o s w i t c h a r e reduced. The o t h e r m a j o r p o r b l e m w i t h s w i t c h i n g t o s m a l l e r c a r s f o r t r a v e l t o c o t t a g e s i s t h a t many p e o p l e f e e l t h a t s m a l l c a r s a r e s u i t e d o n l y f o r s h o r t t r i p s and a r e n o t d e s i r e a b l e f o r l o n g highway t r i p s (200300 m i l e s ) .  T h i s w i l l t e n d t o e n c o u r a g e t h e u s e o f s m a l l e r c a ^ s where  t h e y a r e needed l e a s t and d i s c o u r a g e i t where t h e y a r e needed most. T a b l e #19 shows t h e c o t t a g e r ' s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e v a l u e o f t h e i r cottages.  The t r e n d here i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t o f income where t h e two  c l o s e s t a r e a s ( V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d and C u l t u s Lake) have h i g h e r a v e r a g e v a l u e s than do t h e more d i s t a n t a r e a s .  56  TABLE #19 CURRENT MARKET VALUE OF COTTAGES AS ESTIMATED BY THE OWNERS ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s )  CURRENT MARKET VALUE (COTTAGE AND LOT) Less than $ 5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 + Mean  $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000  VANCOUVER ISLAND SUBGROUP  70 MILE SUBGROUP  0 0 0 4 4 6 9  0 1 3 6 7 7 3  $32,200  $25,600  240 MILE SUBGROUP 0 3 4 6 3 3 2 $20,800  330 MILE SUBGROUP 0 2 2 6 10 1 3 $22,900  57  Gasoline Costs i n R e l a t i o n to Other Costs o f Cottaging Table  #20 compares g a s o l i n e c o s t s t o c o t t a g e v a l u e s .  At the  p r e s e n t time i t a p p e a r s t h a t t r a v e l c o s t s a r e q u i t e s m a l l i n c o m p a r i s o n t o t h e t o t a l c o s t o f owning t h e c o t t a g e .  As a rough a p p r o x i m a t i o n i t  can p r o b a b l y be s a i d t h a t t a x e s , i n s u r a n c e , and m a i n t e n a n c e f o r t h e c o t t a g e w i l l be i n t h e range o f $250 - $450 p e r annum.  (This estimate  i s based on p e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n s w i t h c o t t a g e r s i n t h e C a r i b o o a r e a and on A m e r i c a n d a t a f o r c o t t a g i n g e x p e n s e s ) ( R a g a t z 1969, p. 117) F o r c o t t a g e r s i n t h e two more d i s t a n t s u b g r o u p s a u t o m o b i l e c o s t s o t h e r than gasoline ( i . e . maintenance, d e p r e c i a t i o n , e t c . ) which are a t t r i b u t a b l e to t r i p s t o t h e c o t t a g e w i l l p r o b a b l y be i n t h e $200-$300 p e r y e a r range.  ( T h i s i s based on 4000 m i l e s o f d r i v i n g p e r y e a r w i t h v e h i c l e  d e p r e c i a t i o n and m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s o f 5<f and 7.5<£ p e r m i l e r e s p e c t i v e l y . The 4000 m i l e s o f d r i v i n g r e p r e s e n t s 7 t r i p s p e r y e a r t o a c o t t a g e s l i g h t l y under 300 m i l e s away.)  T a b l e #19 i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e a v e r a g e  c o t t a g e v a l u e s a r e s l i g h t l y o v e r $20,000.  Assuming t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e  t o i n v e s t t h i s money e l s e w h e r e a t a 10 p e r c e n t r a t e o f i n t e r e s t a t f i r s t g l a n c e i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e r e would be an annual o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f a b o u t $2000 i n c u r r e d by owning t h e c o t t a g e .  However t h e t r u e v a l u e  o f t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i s much l e s s s i n c e c o t t a g e s g e n e r a l l y a p p r e c i a t e in value.  During periods i n which the values o f cottages a r e r i s i n g  q u i c k l y t h i s o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t would approach  zero.  I t s h o u l d a l s o be  n o t e d t h a t i n c r e a s e s i n t r a v e l c o s t s can a l s o i n c r e a s e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s r e d u c e demand f o r c o t t a g e s and s u b s e q u e n t l y r e d u c e t h e r a t e o f t h e i r a p p r e c i a t i o n .  5S TABLE #20 GASOLINE COSTS AND COTTAGE VALUES (330 M i l e Subsample) RESPONDENT  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 ' 19 20 21 22 Mean  INCOME COOO's)  GASOLINE VALUE OF COTTAGE COST PER ('000 o f $) TRIP $  16 13 18 20 16 15 15 18 15 13 12 15 25 12 22 20 15 15 35 16 25 28  20-30 20-30 15-20 15-20 40+ 40+ 10-15 10-15 10-15  15-20 10-15 15-20 20-30 20-30 20-30 15-20 10-15 5-10  ?  ?  10-15 15-20 30-40 20-30 20-30 10-15 15-20 15-20 20-30 15-20 15-20  17.9  21,700  NUMBER OF TRIPS PER YEAR*  GASOLINE MILEAGE (M.P.G.)  15 6 5 5 3 8 6 3 4 8 3 6 3 4 6 13 3 6 20 5 6 11 6..6  ?  TOTAL ANNUAL GASOLINE COST  30-40 5-10 20-30 20-30 20-30 20-30 40+ 40+ 10-20 20-30 15-20 20-30  35 43 31 28 35 37 37 31 37 43 27 37 22 47 26 28 37 37 16 35 22 20  560 260 155 140 105 296 222 93 148 344 141 222 66 188 156 364 111 222 320 175 135 220  22,900  $33.23  $219  • I n c l u d e s weekends, h o l i d a y weekends, and v a c a t i o n s .  59  Thus a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e the a v e r a g e annual g a s o l i n e c o s t f o r c o t t a g e s i n t h e 330 m i l e subgroup i s a b o u t one q u a r t e r o f t h e t o t a l annual c o s t o f owning the c o t t a g e ,  (aside from opportunity cost)  While  i t i s t r u e t h a t g a s o l i n e c o s t s a r e not t h e l a r g e s t c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o t t a g i n g a t t h i s time t h e y a r e becoming e v e r more i m p o r t a n t .  It also  must be remembered t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n any o f the c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o t t a g i n g w i l l f o r c e o u t some p a r t i c i p a n t s . A n a l y s i s o f P r o f i l e Data The a n a l y s i s up t o t h i s p o i n t has d e a l t w i t h d a t a d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to c o t t a g i n g and t r a v e l c o s t .  The r e m a i n d e r o f t h e a n a l y s i s w i l l be c o n -  c e r n e d w i t h o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and r e s p o n s e s  o f the c o t t a g e r s i n the  sample. F i r s t o f a l l i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o compare the a v e r a g e incomes o f t h e c o t t a g e r s i n t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d sample t o t h o s e o f t h e c o t t a g e r s i n the mainland subgroup. drawn t h e p a s t b e h a v i o u r  This i s important  s i n c e when c o n c l u s i o n s a r e  being  o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s w i l l be used as a  g u i d e to e s t i m a t i n g t h e f u t u r e b e h a v i o u r  of mainland cottagers.  Obviously  i f t h e r e a r e any s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n income between g r o u p s t h e s e s h o u l d be b r o u g h t o u t so t h a t t h e i r e f f e c t s can be a c c o u n t e d #21  for.  Table  shows d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a v e r a g e f a m i l y income f o r each s u b g r o u p .  It  i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e two c o t t a g e a r e a s most d i s t a n t from V a n c o u v e r a r e p o p u l a t e d w i t h s l i g h t l y l o w e r income c o t t a g e r s than e i t h e r the C u l t u s Lake a r e a o f the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d a r e a s sampled.  Thus t h e V a n c o u v e r  I s l a n d d a t a can be a p p l i e d t o t h e m a i n l a n d c o t t a g e r s knowing t h a t t h e i r responses  w i l l be a t l e a s t as g r e a t s i n c e t h e i r incomes a r e s l i g h t l y  lower.  60 TABLE 21 DISTRIBUTION OF ANNUAL FAMILY INCOME BY SUBGROUP  FAMILY  INCOME  l e s s than $ 5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 + Mean  $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000  VANCOUVER ISLAND 2 2 3 1 5 5 4 $24,600  70 MILE  240 MILE  330 MILE  _  _  _  4 1 4 7 4 4  3 6 5 2 1 2  4 9 6 1 2  $24,500  $21,200  -  $21,800  6T  When o c c u p a t i o n and e d u c a t i o n a r e combined w i t h income ( w i t h each b e i n g g i v e n e q u a l w e i g h t ) t h e a v e r a g e r e s u l t s a r e as f o l l o w s : 70 m i l e subsample  - 8.5  240 m i l e subsample  - 7.3  330 m i l e subsample  - 8.1  (Range o f s c a l e - 0-12 - f o r D e t a i l s see Appendix  3)  Thus w h i l e t h e r e i s some r e v e r s a l i n t r e n d between t h e two most d i s t a n t subgroups i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t c o t t a t e r s l o w e r i n s o c i a l s t a t u s t r a v e l f a r t h e r t o t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do t h o s e o f h i g h e r s o c i a l s t a t u s .  While  s t u d i e s have shown t h a t t h e s o c i a l c l a s s s t r u c t u r e o f c o t t a g i n g as a whole i s b r e a k i n g down ( F i n e and T u t t l e , 1966) t h e r e s t i l l i s some d i s t i n c t i o n between the p r e d o m i n a t i n g c l a s s e s i n s p e c i f i c a r e a s .  In  our. s u r v e y t h i s has t a k e n t h e f o r m o f l o w e r c l a s s c o t t a g e r s d r i v i n g f a r t h e r to t h e i r cottage.  T h i s o f course i m p l i e s ( p r i m a r i l y through  income e f f e c t s ) t h a t as g a s o l i n e p r i c e s r i s e t h e a r e a s most d i s t a n t from Vancouver w i l l p r o b a b l y e x p e r i e n c e a d e c l i n e i n use which i s more than p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e d i s t a n c e d i f f e r e n t i a l between t h e s e a r e a s and t h e c l o s e r ones. In t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e s a c h i - s q u a r e d t e s t was used t o i d e n t i f y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c e r t a i n p r o f i l e v a r i a b l e s and t h e r e s p o n s e t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s . C h i - s q u a r e d i s d e r i v e d as f o l l o w s : 2 C h i - s q u a r e d (X ) = I  (0-E)^ where 0 = t h e o b s e r v e d f r e q u e n c y i n a  c e l l , E i s t h e e x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c y i n a c e l l and i i s t h e t o t a l number of c e l l s , 12/21  ( i . e . i n t h e f i r s t c e l l o f T a b l e #22A where 0 = 7 ,  = 4.5)  E = 8 x  C h i - s q u a r e d i d e n t i f i e s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between two  nominal s c a l e d v a r i a b l e s by comparing o b s e r v e d v a l u e s t o c a l c u l a t e d  62 j o i n t p r o b a b i l i t i e s ( E ) . I f o b s e r v e d v a l u e s (0) a r e equal t o c a l c u l a t e d j o i n t p r o b a b i l i t i e s (E) i n a l l c e l l s then t h e r e i s no r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e two v a r i a b l e s . C o n v e r s e l y s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s between observed  (0) and e x p e c t e d v a l u e s ( E ) i m p l y t h a t t h e two v a r i a b l e s a r e  related.  Thus i n T a b l e #22 a h i g h v a l u e o f c h i - s q u a r e d i n d i c a t e s t h a t  r e s p o n s e t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s i s s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o income.  The  s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s quoted show t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g t h e a s s o c i a t e d v a l u e o f c h i - s q u a r e d p u r e l y by chance,  ( i . e . f o r T a b l e #22A  the c h i - s q u a r e d v a l u e o f 4.75 would o c c u r 5 t i m e s o u t o f 100 p u r e l y by chance) T a b l e #21 shows t h a t t h e r e i s a d e f i n i t e r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and r e s p o n s e t o f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s among V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d cottagers.  As one would e x p e c t t h e h i g h e r income c o t t a g e r s d i d n o t  r e s p o n d t o t h e f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s w i t h as much o f a r e d u c t i o n i n number o f t r i p s as d i d t h e lower income c o t t a g e r s . T a b l e #22 shows t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and t o t a l annual number o f t r i p s p e r y e a r t o t h e c o t t a g e f o r m a i n l a n d  cottagers.  A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e o f a weak p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between income and t o t a l annual number o f t r i p s t h i s c a n n o t be c o n s i d e r e d significant.  T a b l e #23 shows t h a t t h e r e i s no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p  ( i n f a c t t h e r e i s a weak i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p ) between income and response to g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s .  T h i s i s i n sharp c o n t r a s t t o the  V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d d a t a w h i c h i s p r o b a b l y more r e l i a b l e due t o t h e much g r e a t e r magnitude o f the c o s t i n c r e a s e i n t h a t case (and because the ferry fare increases occurred instantaneously instead of gradually  TABLE #22 FAMILY INCOME AND RESPONSE TO INCREASED FERRY FARES ( V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d S u b g r o u p ) A.  H o l i d a y Weekends INCOME  Response Negative (reduction in # of trips) 0 o r + (no change or i n c r e a s e )  L e s s than $20,000  B.  Row t o t a l  7  5  12  1  8  9  13  21  Column t o t a l  Chi s q u a r e = 4.75  $20,000 o r More  s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0.05 l e v e l  Weekends INCOME  Response  Less than $20,000  $20,000 o r More  Row t o t a l  Negative (reduction i n # of trips)  6  6  12  0 o f + (no change or i n c r e a s e )  2  7  9  13  21  Column t o t a l  Chi s q u a r e = 1.73 s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0.20 l e v e l  64  . TABLE #23 FAMILY INCOME AND-TOTAL NUMBER OF TRIPS TO THE COTTAGE (240 and 330 m i l e s u b g r o u p s )  INCOME Row Total  Less than $20,000  $20,000 o r More  3 or less 4-6 7 o r more  8 11 4  5 2 4  13 13 8  Column t o t a l  23  11  34  Number o f t r i p s p e r y e a r (weekends and l o n g weekends)  Chi s q u a r e = 2 . 5 7  s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0.30 l e v e l  TABLE #24 FAMILY INCOME AND RESPONSE TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (240 and 330 m i l e s u b g r o u p s )  INCOME Response ( f o r weekends & h o l i d a y weekends)  L e s s than $20,000  $20,000 o r More  Row Total  Negative (reduct i o n i n average number o f t r i p s ) 0 o r p o s i t i v e (no change o r i n c r e a s e )  4  6  10  15  7  22  Column t o t a l  19  13  32  Chi s q u a r e = 2.05  s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0.20 l e v e l  65  w h i c h r e d u c e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f o t h e r f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the  observed  changes i n amount o f u s e ) . T a b l e s #25 and #26  i n d i c a t e t h a t the l e n g t h o f o w n e r s h i p o f the  cottage i s not a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i s e x p l a i n i n g response to t r a v e l cost increases.  I t was o n l y p o s s i b l e t o c a r r y o u t t h i s a n a l y s i s f o r 2  o f t h e 4 subsamples but i t i s f e l t t h a t t h e y a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . T a b l e #27 shows t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s p o n s e s r e g a r d i n g r e a s o n s f o r g o i n g to the c o t t a g e .  to a question  This information i s of  l i m i t e d importance i n regard to p r e d i c t i n g primary e f f e c t s of  higher  g a s o l i n e p r i c e s on c o t t a g i n g b u t i s v e r y u s e f u l w i t h r e g a r d t o  secon-  dary e f f e c t s .  rated  F o r example s i n c e " g e t t i n g o u t o f t h e c i t y " was  as b e i n g an i m p o r t a n t  r e a s o n f o r g o i n g to t h e c o t t a g e by many o f the  r e s p o n d e n t s the d e v e l o p m e n t o f a d d i t i o n a l r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s i n o r n e a r c i t i e s w i l l n o t be a s a t i s f a c t o r y a l t e r n a t i v e t o c o t t a g i n g . S i m i l a r l y the r e l a t i v e l y l o w e r d e g r e e o f i m p o r t a n c e a t t a c h e d t o t h e c o t t a g e b e i n g "good f o r c h i l d r e n " i m p l i e s t h a t improved c h i l d r e n ' s r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e c i t i e s w i l l not be an e f f e c t i v e s u b s t i tute for cottaging.  On t h e o t h e r hand i t a p p e a r s t h a t a t l e a s t f o r  some o f t h e c o t t a g e r s t h a t a d d i t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o engage i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s c l o s e r t o t h e i r homes would a t l e a s t be a p a r t i a l s i t t u t e to using t h e i r cottage.  T a b l e #28  ( D i s t r i b u t i o n of  t o : What d i d you do i n y o u r s p a r e t i m e b e f o r e you had y o u r  sub-  responses cottage?)  i s a l s o i n t e n d e d f o r use i n s u g g e s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o t t a g i n g a t long d i s t a n c e s from Vancouver.  I t does p r o v i d e an i d e a o f what o t h e r  t y p e s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s m i g h t be p o p u l a r w i t h c o t t a g e r s .  All  66 TABLE #25 LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP OF THE COTTAGE AND RESPONSE TO FERRY FARE INCREASES (Weekends & H o l i d a y weekends) Length o f Ownership 10 Y e a r s o r more  9 Years o r Less  Response Negative (reduction in use) 0 o r p o s i t i v e (no change o r i n c r e a s e ) Column T o t a l c h i s q u a r e = 0.37  Row Total  5  8  13  5  5  10  10  13  23  s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.60 l e v e l TABLE #26  LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP OF THE COTTAGE AND RESPONSES TO GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (weekend, and h o l i d a y weekends) Length o f Ownership 9 Years o f Less  10 Years o r more  Row Total  Negative 0 or positive  4 5  2 7  6 12  Column T o t a l  9  9  18  Response  chi square =0.83  s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.40 l e v e l  67 TABLE #27 REASONS FOR GOING TO THE COTTAGE 70 MILE SUBGROUP 9. Why do y o u go t o y o u r c o t t a g e ? t h e i r importance.  5 0 6 1  0 0 2 0  240 MILE SUBGROUP 9. Why do y o u go t o y o u r c o t t a g e ? importance.  6 8 7 1  0 1 1 0  330 MILE SUBGROUP 9. Why do y o u go t o y o u r c o t t a g e ? importance.  9 10 9 2  0 0 0 0  Good f o r c h i l d r e n I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t Sense o f r o u g h i n g i t , b e i n g c l o s e to nature Relaxation To engage i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s Get o u t o f t h e c i t y Other -  Rate each o f t h e f o l l o i w n g as t o t h e i r  V e r y I m p o r t a n t Important Not I m p o r t a n t 2 9 1 11 9 0 0 6 9 11 10 11 2  Good f o r c h i l d r e n I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t Sense o f r o u g h i n g i t , b e i n g close to nature Relaxation To engacje i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s Get o u t o f t h e c i t y Other -  Rate each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g as t o t h e i r  V e r y I m p o r t a n t I m p o r t a n t Not I m p o r t a n t 1 3 6 0 9 6 0 3 9 11 6 6 1  o f responses)  Rate each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g as t o  V e r y I m p o r t a n t Important Not I m p o r t a n t 3 11 6 9 8 3 5 6 7 19 10 15 1  (distribution  Good f o r c h i l d r e n I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t Sense o f r o u g h i n g i t , b e i n g c l o s e to nature Relaxation To engage i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s Get o u t o f t h e c i t y ^ Other -  68 TABLE #28 A C T I V I T I E S ENGAGED IN PRIOR TO COTTAGING 70 MILE SUBGROUP Can y o u r e c a l l what y o u d i d i n y o u r s p a r e t i m e ( t i m e which y o u now spend a t y o u r c o t t a g e ) b e f o r e y o u had y o u r c o t t a g e ? Check more than one i f necessary. 8 v i s i t e d l o c a l parks o r r e c r e a t i o n areas (not o v e r n i g h t ) 9 camping 6 visited friends 7 r e l a x i n g a t home 3 boating 6 visited resorts 7 other (please explain)  240 MILE SUBGROUP Can y o u r e c a l l what y o u d i d i n y o u r s p a r e time ( t i m e which y o u now spend a t y o u r c o t t a g e ) b e f o r e y o u had y o u r c o t t a g e ? Check more than one i f necessary. 3 v i s i t e d l o c a l parks o r r e c r e a t i o n areas (not o v e r n i g h t ) 3 r e l a x i n g a t home 10 camping 3 visited friends 2 other (please explain) 4 boating 7 visited resorts  330 MILE SUBGROUP Can y o u r e c a l l what y o u d i d i n y o u r s p a r e time ( t i m e which y o u now spend a t y o u r c o t t a g e ) b e f o r e y o u had y o u r c o t t a g e ? Check more t h a n one i f necessary. 3 v i s i t e d l o c a l parks o r r e c r e a t i o n areas (not o v e r n i g h t ) 15 camping 4 visited friends 6 r e l a x i n g a t home 4 boating 6 visited resorts 3 other (please explain)  69 t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s cannot be c o n s i d e r e d as s u b s t i t u t e s a t t h i s time o r i n the f u t u r e however s i n c e some o f them i n d i c a t e a l i f e c y c l e t r e n d .  For  example t h e h i g h i n c i d e n c e o f camping as a p r e d e c e s s o r t o c o t t a g i n g i n d i c a t e s t h a t as t h e f a m i l y grows o l d e r i t t u r n s away from camping and towards the g r e a t e r c o m f o r t s o f c o t t a g i n g .  ( a l s o c o t t a g i n g becomes more  p o s s i b l e as peak income y e a r s a r e r e a c h e d )  Many o f t h e s e c o t t a g e r s would  p r o b a b l y n o t be w i l l i n g t o g i v e up the c o m f o r t s o f c o t t a g i n g and r e t u r n t o camping. R e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s Survey to the E n t i r e Vancouver Cottage Although  Field t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t u d y i s i n t e n d e d t o be a s u r v e y  o n l y and n o t a s t a t i s t i c a l sample o f the e n t i r e V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e  field  i t i s u s e f u l t o p r e s e n t some i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e e n t i r e c o t t a g e  field  i n o r d e r t o see e x a c t l y where t h i s s u r v e y f i t s i n . T a b l e #29 1973)  p r o v i d e s a breakdown o f where V a n c o u v e r i t e s  (Taylor  have t h e i r c o t t a g e s  and the a p p r o x i m a t e t r a v e l d i s t a n c e t o them. The sample does c o v e r a . r e p r e s e n t a t i v e range i n terms o f l e n g t h o f t r i p from home t o c o t t a g e . I t a l s o c o v e r s two o f the f o u r m a j o r l a k e s h o r e c o t t a g e a r e a s by  frequented  Vancouverites. The c o t t a g e owner's s u r v e y has a sample o f c o t t a g e r s w h i c h a r e  q u i t e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g i n g p o p u l a i t o n i n terms o f income.  The mean f a m i l y income o f c o t t a g e r s s u r v e y e d  combined) i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y  $23,000 ( i n 1977).  ( a l l sub samples  The mean f a m i l y income  f o r a random sample o f V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s i n 1972 was f o u n d t o be a b o u t $15,000 (1972 d o l l a r s ) .  ( V a n c o u v e r Urban F u t u r e s , 1972)  When t h i s i s  70 TABLE  #29  RECREATIONAL ACCOMMODATION OWNED BY RESIDENTS OF GREATER VANCOUVER - LOCATION AND DISTANCE FROM VANCOUVER (1972)  LOCATION Local Mountains Rural F r a s e r V a l l e y North Washington Mount W h i s t l e r Sunshine Coast Vancouver I s l a n d Gulf Islands Okanagan Cariboo E l s e w h e r e i n B.C. Other Locations M i s s i n g Data Total  NUMBER OF COTTAGES AT EACH LOCATION  % OF TOTAL  DISTANCE FROM VANCOUVER  17 17 31 7 19 11 31 17 21 24 4 8  8.21 8.21 14.97 3.38 9.18 5.31 14.97 8.21 10.15 11.59 1.96 3.86  .10 - 30 m i l e s 40 - 100 m i l e s 40 - 120 m i l e s 75 m i l e s 20 - 80 m i l e s 40 - 150 m i l e s 30 m i l e s 250 - 325 m i l e s 220 - 500 m i l e s  207  100.00  i n f l a t e d t o 1977 l e v e l s i t e q u a l s a b o u t $22,300 which i s v e r y c l o s e the mean f o r t h e sample used i n t h i s s t u d y , living  ( i n f l a t e d by c o s t o f  index) Thus t h e d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r c a n p r o v i d e some  i n s i g h t i n t o t h e e n t i r e Vancouver  cottage f i e l d .  72 TABLE #30 LENGTH OF OWNERSHIP OF COTTAGE ( d i s t r i b u t i o n o f respondents)  TIME  SUBGROUP 70 MILE  240 MILE  330 MILE  VANCOUVER ISLAND  "I y e a r  0  0  0  0  2-3 y e a r s  2  1  3  4  4-5 y e a r s  3  6  10  0  6-9 y e a r s  4  1  10 y e a r s  16  9  5  2 3  11  73 CHAPTER THREE CONCLUSIONS Gasoline Prices and Reduction i n Use of Cottages The f i r s t hypothesis made i n this study was that as gasoline prices r i s e some areas in the Vancouver cottaging f i e l d which are presently popular for cottaging w i l l be rejected as being too expensive to reach.  The investigation of this hypothesis dealt primarily with  reductions in use due to travel cost increases as opposed to attempting to find a point at which the cottages would no longer be used at a l l . This was done f o r the following reason: As travel costs r i s e the market value of those cottages located at a great distance from Vancouver w i l l tend to f a l l .  Thus i f travel costs  reach near p r o h i b i t i v e levels the value of the cottages w i l l  probably  have f a l l e n to such an extent that s e l l i n g them w i l l not be a t t r a c t i v e . As was mentioned in the previous chapter three methods of estimation w i l l be combined to draw conclusions about the response of cottagers to gasoline price increases.  Figures #7 and #8 show the  results of this amalgamation of the three estimation methods  (Mainland  cottager's response to gasoline price increased, mainland cottager's perceptions of their reactions to future price increases, and Vancouver Island cottager's responses to past price increases.) conducted i n the l a s t chapter i t can be concluded increases are not l i k e l y to be an important cottage use f o r the seventy mile subgroup.  From the analysis  that gasoline price  factor in determining  74 W i t h r e g a r d to the 240  m i l e and 330  m i l e s u b g r o u p s i t can  c o n c l u d e d t h a t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s w i l l p l a y q u i t e an role in determining  how much t h e s e a r e a s a r e u s e d .  t h e f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s s h o u l d be 1)  be  important  In p a r t i c u l a r  noted:  I t a p p e a r s as i f t h e r e has a l r e a d y been some r e d u c t i o n i n f r e q u e n c y  o f use i n r e s p o n s e t o r e c e n t g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . 2)  The r e d u c t i o n i n f r e q u e n c y o f use w i l l be q u i t e s e v e r e a t f i r s t but  i f p r i c e s a r e r a i s e d t o much h i g h e r l e v e l s ($2 r a t e o f r e d u c t i o n i n use w i l l d e c r e a s e  - $3.00 p e r g a l l o n ) the  ( t h e demand f o r t r i p s t o the  c o t t a g e becomes l e s s e l a s t i c as t h e number o f t r i p s t a k e n per y e a r approaches z e r o ) .  W h i l e t h i s c o n c l u s i o n i s based e n t i r e l y on the  c o t t a g e r ' s own e s t i m a t e o f how h i s f r e q u e n c y o f use would be a f f e c t e d i t i s backed up t o some e x t e n t by t h e r e s p o n s e s regarding gasoline rationing .  to the q u e s t i o n  (See T a b l e s #15-#17)  Here the c o t -  t a g e r s i n d i c a t e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r a v a r i e t y o f means f o r c o p i n g  with  the s i t u a t i o n . The r e s u l t s b a s i c a l l y showed t h a t a l l a c t i v i t i e s would be c u t back p a r t i a l l y i n s t e a d o f one b e i n g e l i m i n a t e d . suggest a moderation  T h i s would  i n degree of response with r e s p e c t to c o t t a g i n g  a c t i v i t y as p r i c e s r e a c h extreme l e v e l s . 3)  S i n c e t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d d a t a r e p r e s e n t s an a c t u a l r e a c t i o n t o a  s u b s t a n t i a l t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e (and n o t answers t o h y p o t h e t i c a l q u e s t i o n s o r r e s p o n s e to a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l i n c r e a s e i n t r a v e l c o s t ) i t s h o u l d p r o b a b l y be c o n s i d e r e d as b e i n g the most r e l i a b l e of mainland  cottager's future behaviour.  estimate  F o r t h i s r e a s o n F i g u r e #7  and #8 were c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h t h i s d a t a b e i n g g i v e n the most w e i g h t i n  75 the middle ranges of travel cost.  The past responses of mainland cot-  tagers to travel cost increases were considered primarily at the lower end of travel cost with the aticipated responses of these cottagers to increased travel costs being incorporated at the extreme upper reach of travel costs. The other major conclusion which can be drawn in r e l a t i o n to the magnitude of the effects of gasoline price increases on cottage use i s that use w i l l decline more markedly at the more distant areas than i t w i l l at the areas closer to Vancouver.  This i s shown c l e a r l y  in Table #10 (Chapter 2) where the absolute value of the price elast i c i t y of demand f o r t r i p s to the cottage increases steadily with distance from Vancouver.  These values correspond f a i r l y closely with  other estimates such as those made by Houthakker and Verleger f o r the price e l a s t i c i t y of demand f o r gasoline, run = -.75)  (short run = -.43, and long  It i s d i f f i c u l t to make a d i s t i n c t i o n between the short  and the long run with regard to cottaging (non essential nature of the t r i p s , d i f f i c u l t y in s e l l i n g the cottage i f gasoline prices r i s e too much, e t c . ) .  The major point to note here i s simply that the estimates  in this study were close to the range recorded by other studies. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of the effects of increased travel costs among the d i f f e r e n t categories of t r i p s to the cottage (weekend t r i p s , holiday weekend, t r i p s , vacation t r i p s , etc.) should also be considered. As was mentioned e a r l i e r there was some confusion regarding weeks of vacation versus number of vacation t r i p s .  However the basic trend  among a l l subgroups was one of l i t t l e change i n amount of extended  76  v a c a t i o n u s e . A l l s u b - g r o u p s i n d i c a t e d t h a t h o l i d a y weekend use would be c u t more than normal weekend use i n r e s p o n s e t o t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s w h i c h was c o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n s .  The e l a s t i c i t i e s ( p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s  o f demand f o r t r i p s t o t h e c o t t a g e ) f o r weekend and l o n g weekend t r i p s were v e r y s i m i l a r f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d subgroup w h i c h i s f e l t t o be t h e most r e l i a b l e .  The most r e a s o n a b l e c o n c l u s i o n w h i c h c a n be made from  t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s as f o l l o w s : Weekend and h o l i d a y weekend use w i l l d e c l i n e t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y  equal  degrees i n response to a given i n c r e a s e i n t r a v e l c o s t while extended v a c a t i o n use w i l l remain c o n s t a n t .  The o n l y way i n w h i c h e x t e n d e d v a c a t i o n  use w i l l be a f f e c t e d by t r a v e l c o s t s i s i f a f a m i l y o f c o t t a g e r s f i n d s t h a t s i n c e weekend and h o l i d a y weekend use has been c u r t a i l e d t o such an e x t e n t t h a t t h e y would r a t h e r d i s p o s e o f t h e c o t t a g e than use i t o n l y f o r extended v a c a t i o n . Income and L o c a t i o n o f C o t t a g e The second h y p o t h e s i s made i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n was t h a t lower income c o t t a g e r s t r a v e l a g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e t o t h e i r c o t t a g e s ( i n o r d e r to e s c a p e h i g h l a n d p r i c e s ) . sampled.  T h i s was f o u n d t o be t r u e i n t h e a r e a s  Also the Vancouver Island p o r t i o n o f the i n v e s t i g a t i o n  s u g g e s t s t h a t income i s an i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t r a v e l c o s t , increases.  T h e s e f i n d i n g s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e c o t t a g e r s a t t h e more d i s t a n t  a r e a s w i l l r e s p o n d t o i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s t o a much g r e a t e r d e g r e e ( i . e . a g r e a t e r r e d u c t i o n i n use) than w i l l t h o s e c o t t a g e r s a t a r e a s c l o s e r to Vancouver,  ( a g r e a t e r d i f f e r e n t i a l i n r e s p o n s e than what  i n c r e a s e d d i s t a n c e a l o n e would s u g g e s t )  I t a l s o suggests t h a t the mainland  77 c o t t a g e r s a t t h e two most d i s t a n t a r e a s w i l l e x h i b i t a g r e a t e r r e a c t i o n to i n c r e a s e d t r a v e l c o s t s than d i d the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d c o t t a g e r s  (due  to the income d i f f e r e n t i a l ) . T r a v e l Time and T r a v e l C o s t The t h i r d h y p o t h e s i s made i n t h i s p r o j e c t was t h a t a t the  present  time the e x t e n t o f V a n c o u v e r ' s c o t t a g e f i e l d i s p r i m a r i l y l i m i t e d by t r a v e l time as opposed t o t r a v e l c o s t whereas i n t h e f u t u r e t r a v e l c o s t w i l l be the m a j o r l i m i t a t i o n . I t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o draw d e f i n i t e c o n c l u s i o n s a b o u t t h i s s i n c e both f a c t o r s w i l l p l a y some p a r t i n l i m i t i n g distances t r a v e l l e d to cottages. r e s u l t s to the mainland  By r e l a t i n g the V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d  r e s u l t s i t can be seen t h a t w h i l e the  i n f l u e n c e (on t h e m a i n l a n d  primary  a t l e a s t ) on d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d i n s t i l l  t r a v e l time the s i t u a t i o n i s c h a n g i n g  t o one i n w h i c h c o s t i s more impor-  t a n t ( i . e . V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d t r a v e l c o s t s a r e more s i m i l a r to the  330  m i l e subgroup w h i l e t h e i r t r a v e l time i s c l o s e r to the 240 m i l e s u b g r o u p . T h e i r f r e q u e n c y o f use i s s t i l l c l o s e r t o t h e 240 m i l e g r o u p b u t i s b e g i n n i n g t o a p p r o a c h t h a t o f t h e 330 m i l e subgroup ( f o r r e g u l a r weekends)).  T h i s s t u d y does show t h a t t r a v e l c o s t i s becoming a v e r y  i m p o r t a n t component o f d i s t a n c e i n r e g a r d t o f r e q u e n c y o f use o f c o t t a g e s ( n o t e the s u b s t a n t i a l r e s p o n s e s  i n terms o f r e d u c t i o n i n number  o f t r i p s t o both g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s and f e r r y f a r e i n c r e a s e s ) . In a d d i t i o n to the c o n c l u s i o n s which r e l a t e d i r e c t l y t o t h e e a r l i e r s t a t e d h y p o t h e s e s t h e r e a r e some a d d i t i o n a l comments w h i c h s h o u l d be made.  One o f t h e s e i s w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h i s s t u d y ' s  o b s e r v e d e f f e c t s ( o f t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s upon number o f t r i p s t o t h e  78  c o t t a g e ) b e i n g r e d u c e d c o n s i d e r a b l y by a m a s s i v e s w i t c h o f c o t t a g e r s t o subcompact c a r s .  A l t h o u g h as was m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o  d i s t i n g u i s h between t h e s h o r t run and the l o n g run w i t h r e s p e c t t o demand f o r t r i p s t o the c o t t a g e the f o l l o w i n g breakdown can a t l e a s t be  suggested:  1)  The s h o r t run - t h i s i n v o l v e s no change i n t h e c a p i t a l e q u i p m e n t  r e q u i r e d f o r c o t t a g i n g ( i . e . the c o t t a g e and c a r ) . 2)  The medium run - t h i s time p e r i o d i n v o l v e s k e e p i n g the c o t t a g e  changing 3)  but  to a smaller car.  The l o n g run - both t h e c o t t a g e and c a r can be d i s p o s e d o f o r t r a d e d  f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h i s time p e r i o d . A d d i t i o n a l Comments W h i l e i t i s c l e a r t h a t my methods o f e s t i m a t i o n have been based on t h e f i r s t time p e r i o d i t i s l e s s c l e a r as to how s i g n i f i c a n t t h e l a s t two time p e r i o d s a r e .  If gasoline prices increase quickly i t is l i k e l y  t h a t l a r g e c a r s w i l l be as d i f f i c u l t t o s e l l as d i s t a n t c o t t a g e s .  Also  the data suggest t h a t a major switch to small cars i s u n l i k e l y to occur a t the most d i s t a n t a r e a s .  Although  t h a t by 1985 t h e s a l e s w e i g h t e d  the f e d e r a l government has s a i d  average mileage f o r a l l cars s o l d i n  Canada must be a t l e a s t 33 m i l e s per g a l l o n ( E n e r g y , M i n e s , and 1976)  Resources,  i t i s not l i k e l y t h a t the c a r s used by c o t t a g e r s f o r t r a v e l t o  t h e i r cottage w i l l a t t a i n that level of performance.  The r e a s o n s f o r  this are: 1)  I t w i l l be n e a r l y 10 y e a r s a f t e r t h a t d a t e b e f o r e t h a t f i g u r e i s  79  r e a c h e d f o r a l l c a r s on t h e r o a d due t o t h e s t o c k o f o l d e r c a r s . 2)  C o t t a g e r s a r e g e n e r a l l y m i d d l e and upper income p e o p l e .  Therefore  t h e y w i l l u s u a l l y have two c a r s * one o f w h i c h w i l l p r o b a b l y be a subcompact w h i c h g e t s l e s s than 33 m i l e s p e r g a l l o n .  I t i s l i k e l y (par-  t i c u l a r l y f o r t h o s e c o t t a g e r s who t a k e c h i l d r e n w i t h them, and t h o s e who t r a v e l l o n g d i s t a n c e s ) t h a t t h e l a r g e r c a r w i l l be used f o r t h e t r i p t o t h e c o t t a g e and s m a l l e r one i n t h e c i t y . 3)  The f i g u r e o f 33 m i l e s p e r g a l l o n i s a l a b o r a t o r y t e s t r e s u l t o n l y  and i s u n l i k e l y t o be a c h i e v e d i n p r a c t i c e . F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s i t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t a s w i t c h t o s m a l l e r c a r s by c o t t a g e r s would a l t e r t h i s s t u d y ' s p r e v i o u s l y made e s t i m a t e s o f e f f e c t s o f g a s o l i n e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on use by a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l amount in the foreseeable f u t u r e .  The c o t t a g e r s a n t i c i p a t e d f u t u r e  responses  p r o b a b l y i n c l u d e s t h e e f f e c t s o f u s i n g s m a l l e r c a r s and thus shows a d i m i n i s h i n g r e s p o n s e t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e s beyond a c e r t a i n l e v e l .  The  e f f e c t i s shown i n F i g u r e s #7 and #8. A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h e use of p u b l i c t r a n s i t to reach the cottage.  The r e s u l t s s u g g e s t e d  that  p u b l i c t r a n s i t t o c o t t a g e s would n o t be v e r y p o p u l a r b u t i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h i s was due t o c o t t a g e r s r e a c t i n g t o t h e p r e s e n t s t a t e o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n t h e i r a r e a and n o t t o t h e i d e a o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e p u b l i c t r a n s i t arrangements. I t c a n be s a i d t h a t t r a v e l c o s t i s becoming an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e amount o f use w h i c h c o t t a g e s r e c e i v e .  FIGURE #7  - ESTIMATED RESPONSE TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES (330 M i l e S u b g r o u p )  1 i  i  L0(;  •  1  i !  1  ;  ;  i  ; ; 1; 1  90  1  :  !  !  !  i  i  t . .. 1i \ \  j  .  1  v  i • ! i \ i iL i \ \ • I V : i i : ! \ r • ! i T 1 1 t 1 1 \ i \ \ : i _ i ! i j v : 1 ' 1 • »! v 1 ! L i ^ M i ' : \ i i•, , I M _ i\ ! 1 ! 1 ! •[ r n \ i i ! ! ; i i v I ;i i! |! i \ 1 • ! v ii — ~ — ; i i ;  '  i 6c 1  :  ! i  ! i • j  •  !  To t a l  j.  i; ; ...... .  :  n Cost f o r the t  1  ;  So — -  i  : !  !  i i i ! j i 1  1 i  !  _  i ! ; 1 ;• : i M -j ! 1 !..! 1 I. ; : i ! i i" i ;  I!  |  —  !  .  __i  !  i  •  S  r  ' \  i  j  !  .._...!. .  , . i! !! !! ;  i  s  :  !  !  !  :  i  '1  i  . j ;  »  •  ! j  ? i.... ! _ _ L_i._  ']  •;  ;  "  i  1  :  ] 1  :  ••  !  . . X  ... L  !•  . - .;_  !  !  L L . ._ :  i j j ;  !  !  i  N i ._ • •:_... V  _  ••  •WfiekfindR j -j  -  i : 1'  1  :  1  ! i  !• .I .  J - L U !  !  | _LJ  \ <; \  i  i !  L  \  i  ;  !  i  ;  ——-  i  ....  !  __  ; r  ?.o  T  i  i j ; ;• —  !  :  i. ;  :  <  I ! i j J  :...  |  1 | \  :  '  _  L  1  \  jL_i_i ,  :  i .! ....  X, ; ; 1 L L  \  !  i  :i  i  ...  _ '•. _. i  L  „  1  .  \  \; . : 1 v  H o i i d a y . Weekends;  : ; !  :•  .  ;  j  i 1 j !  !  i  '  !  ....  .... _ L . !  i  .  x  ._ •. _: .i .i —! . i. ' . ! i '  *  :  !  1  j .  —  '  *  7C)  !  i  . i.  \ .;  i  j  1 i i  \  !_  ..... i  —  "JLL ;  ••...  -;-r.. ...  j |  X  i  '• fir J  1  \  !  L i .! ; i •  •  !  1 !  ; i  i I  i i !  ---  i .... L ' i ; L .V  —  IIIl j  !  i  !  ..!  ....  10 !  1 c  1 UMBE ET Oi? 1HI PS "PER  K  I  _.  3>  !  I'ci' + imotarl •fr n» Vn'nnouver-Island- da" Anticipated..Future : 'Responses . | . j . j... j j _ ,  ;  i  - •  FIGURE #8 - ESTIMATED RESPONSE TO FUTURE GASOLINE PRICE INCREASES ( 2 ^ 0 M i l e S u b g r o u p ) i-  r~r  1_.—  1  !  !  i  !  L  1  i  ....!  i  I  j  1  i  i  !  ' ;  ;  90 !  L.JL ! ,1  i  •  i  i"' .!  .J . . .  |  t  — •  ! ;  ;  i  :  ; •  !  • ;  s o .• UU  ! !  j.! i ! ! i 1 _ L Li J _ |  |  ;  i  i  I  1  !  J  i  i  ;  i L  :  • !  !.  i  1  i i  \  1  i  \  :  ;  .  \\  ••  -  .  i  i * :_i  i  ! i !  i  :  '  i  i  '  ::  \  i  \  . : i  . i o. ' i . otal ! : T . i i : Ga s o l i n e •i C o s t i o :c =- - L pJ i .  _  !  0  i  ; !  "  i  '  \  ;  ~  9.  ,  J  o._  .'  J L !  ,-  : . _i  :  ! 1  1.  _L  20  ....  • • •  i  i  , ~ ^ ~i  ~  ; \\ I :. ;i i...\  i  "  :  -  1  — ;  ! !  .  i  \ i  '•  i  i  !  !  \  »I  :  ! • ......  '  r  ;  „ . . . ,  i  i' ' i  ..  ! , • '  i >  .  ,— ;  ••' i  ; i  !  i  !• •-  .j.  ;  r ! !  i  |  •  .  ;  i  1  i_ .  \  1  o  " : '  iI  ....  \  !  !  :\-  <  :  _,. ... ... ,.  j  !  i  ' !  !  •  |  11  i  !  V  !  '  ..  ....  \  !  i  ....  1  •  :  i  4 » !  — ^  !  ;!i•  .V !  >  !  ...... • j  10 i  •  _!>..._ NTIIVIBE  ——.  i  ™  !  I EAR OF TRIPS PER  —r  i  !  i !  !  ]  _  —  . . . . •  •  !  :  •  r ; !  »  ;  i  |  I  1i  i  1  t  ! ;  :  ;  !  -  i  ', j : •  * •  .i :  i  •  j  ;  !  !\  i  I  L •L"i :  |  ;  \ \  ...  j  i  |  !\! ! j  j  ;  •  !  i  h  i  —  -  '  • i l l  \  i !  ]  1  -  i i  ;  1 .  .  i | i v : : ~ T — i L :_;...j:.. f :  : —1 i_  :  1  :  v  ! i*  i  1 1  :  i\!  V  .v.  i  i  !  !  !  \  ;  . , L L \J.  i  i  :  ;  • !  ;  i  i  L ... •  ._....!  .\i  I-  .  ^  i  :  i"  ! j i • . :  •  u  ,  !  ;  i • •• \ '• \ \  : i  ;  ,  ;  :  A_Li_ •_JLJL!_  i  i  •  \'  ! !  j :  |  : *  !r  r  T  — . — — .  :  \  i  !  .......  •  1 ' j 1 i j • :  :  !  —.-  " "i"r  j -  i !1  ,  :  ! ; ij; .....}...._• : ! ! ' '  !  »!  1  1  .  !  ii  • :  '  !  i  i  •  !  i  ,  ;  .j 1 . i 6o-  j  •  ; | :  ! 'T"  s \\ M i ' .  ;  ....  !  I  y•  i  i ;  ,  L ;  ......  ......  —  i| r •LI "17  i  1  •  81  J  |  —  ;  :  1  i :  -  i  ••• 1 !  1 i Past Responses — T - r Estimated from Vancouver" l s i a n a • aata-r Responses  | ;  i  i  ;~!~•' r~  82 CHAPTER FOUR THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE STUDY TO REGIONAL PLANNING Indirect E f f e c t s o f Gasoline Price Increases In o r d e r t o p l a c e t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n c o n t e x t w i t h r e g a r d t o regional planning i t i s f i r s t necessary to c o n s i d e r the secondary e f f e c t s w h i c h w i l l o c c u r i f i n c r e a s e d g a s o l i n e p r i c e s make some o f Vancouver's present cottage areas unpopular.  These secondary e f f e c t s  w i l l be i n t h e form o f i n c r e a s e s i n t h e demand f o r a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i v i t i e s and o t h e r c o t t a g e s c l o s e t o V a n c o u v e r .  While none o f t h e q u e s t i o n s on  t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e used i n t h i s s t u d y a s k e d c o t t a g e r s d i r e c t l y what t h e y would do i n s t e a d i f i t became t o o e x p e n s i v e t o go t o t h e i r c o t t a g e ( t h i s would p r o b a b l y n o t produce m e a n i n g f u l  r e s u l t s ) some o f t h e d a t a w h i c h  was c o l l e c t e d p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o t h i s q u e s t i o n .  When t h i s d a t a i s  c o n s i d e r e d ( T a b l e s #27 and #28) i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t i f t h e s e  people  can no l o n g e r a f f o r d t o go t o t h e i r d i s t a n t c o t t a g e t h e y w i l l be l o o k i n g f o r a very s i m i l a r a l t e r n a t i v e (high value attached to g e t t i n g out o f the c i t y , r e l a x a t i o n , peace and q u i e t , e n g a g i n g  i n outdoor  activities,  and t h e h i g h i n c i d e n c e o f camping b e i n g an a c t i v i t y p a r t i c i p a t e d i n b e f o r e owning t h e c o t t a g e . . A l l o f t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h a t a s i m i l a r a c t i v i t y w i l l be sought as a r e p l a c e m e n t  f o r cottaging).  It i s  u n l i k e l y t h a t c o t t a g e r s d i s p l a c e d due t o h i g h e r c o s t s f o r g a s o l i n e w i l l be c o n t e n t t o s i t a t home and r e l a x i n t h e i r b a c k y a r d s . w i l l look elsewhere  These people  t o s a t i s f y d e s i r e s such as t h o s e l i s t e d a b o v e .  Two  major p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n o f these types o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s  83 c l o s e r to Vancouver: 1)  Intensive development o f land around small lakes i n o r c l o s e to the  Lower M a i n l a n d .  T h i s c o u l d be done i n a manner s i m i l a r t o the B l o c k  B r o t h e r s 108 m i l e r e c r e a t i o n a l r a n c h o r many o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t s i n N o r t h e r n W a s h i n g t o n where a l a r g e number o f c o t t a g e l o t s near a s m a l l l a k e a r e made a v a i l a b l e . The l o s s i n a t t r a c t i v e n e s s due t o the l o t s b e i n g non w a t e r f r o n t i s u s u a l l y compensated f o r by more i n t e n s i v e l y d e v e l o p e d  r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s ( s u c h as g o l f  courses, etc.) being included.  The r e d u c t i o n i n p r i v a c y n o r m a l l y  associated with higher d e n s i t i e s i s u s u a l l y minimized  by i n c r e a s e d  a t t e n t i o n t o d e s i g n and l a y o u t . 2)  I n c r e a s e d d e v e l o p m e n t o f the c o a s t a l r e c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e  Vancouver.  T h i s c o u l d take three  near  forms:  (a)  S t a n d a r d sea s h o r e c o t t a g e  lots.  (b)  Sea s h o r e r e c r e a t i o n v i l l a g e s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e d e s c r i b e d i n  s e c t i o n 1 where a l a r g e number o f c o t t a g e l o t s u t i l i z e a s m a l l  shore  area. (c)  Development o f more m a r i n a s p a c e and m a r i n e p a r k s t o e n c o u r a g e  weekend s a i l i n g t r i p s i n t h e G e o r g i a S t r a i t a r e a . C o t t a g i n g and  Planning  In o r d e r t o a t t a i n o b j e c t i v e s l i k e t h o s e o u t l i n e d above c o t t a g i n g must be p l a n n e d f o r on a s c a l e w h i c h c o n s i d e r s t h e l o c a t i o n o f both c o t t a g e r ' s permanent r e s i d e n c e and h i s c o t t a g e .  the  The p r o v i n c e o f B r i t i s h  Columbia does n o t have a c o m p r e h e n s i v e c o t t a g e p o l i c y .  In t h e p a s t  few y e a r s some p o l i c i e s r e l a t i n g t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f crown l a n d f o r  84  c o t t a g e p u r p o s e s have a p p e a r e d but t h e s e have been s i t e s p e c i f i c i n scope.  No a t t e m p t s  have been made t o d i r e c t V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s  towards p a r t i c u l a r a r e a s . Vancouver c o t t a g e r s tend to t r a v e l longer d i s t a n c e s to reach t h e i r c o t t a g e s than do r e s i d e n t s o f o t h e r l a r g e N o r t h A m e r i c a n c i t i e s . Friedman and M i l l e r s u g g e s t t h a t f o r most l a r g e A m e r i c a n c i t i e s t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l f i e l d i s predominantly city centre.  (Friedman  w i t h i n one hundred m i l e s o f t h e  and M i l l e r , 1965)  Toronto c o t t a g e r s a l s o suggested  A study o f metropolitan  t h a t s h o r t e r t r a v e l d i s t a n c e s were  i n v o l v e d t h e r e than i s the c a s e w i t h V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s .  (Hodge,  1970)  When c o n s i d e r i n g the f u t u r e o f the V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g i n g f i e l d the f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s s h o u l d be t a k e n i n t o 1)  account:  Vancouver c o t t a g e r s t r a v e l f a r t h e r to reach t h e i r cottages  than  do c o t t a g e r s i n most o t h e r c i t i e s . 2)  Energy c o s t s a r e l i a b l e t o c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e .  3)  Increased energy costs w i l l r e s u l t i n a considerable reduction i n  c o t t a g e use.  (See p r e v i o u s  chapter)  With t h e s e p o i n t s i n mind i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t c o m p r e h e n s i v e c o t t a g e p o l i c y f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a (and p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r the V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e f i e l d ) i s d e s i r e a b l e i n order to minimize  f u t u r e problems.  It is also  e v i d e n t t h a t the need f o r t h i s s o r t o f p l a n n i n g i s more p r e s s i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e f i e l d than i t i s f o r o t h e r l a r g e N o r t h A m e r i c a n c i t i e s s i n c e the g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d by V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e r s has t h e f o l l o w i n g i m p l i c a t i o n s : 1)  G r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s mean h i g h e r i n i t i a l t r a v e l c o s t s and thus f o r a  g i v e n income group a g r e a t e r s e n s i t i v i t y t o i n c r e a s e d c o s t s .  85  2)  Due p a r t i a l l y t o t h e g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s t r a v e l l e d t h e V a n c o u v e r c o t -  tage f i e l d i s more d i s p e r s e d than i s t h e c a s e around most o t h e r c i t i e s . T h i s makes t h e p r o v i s i o n o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t from c i t y t o c o t t a g e even l e s s p r a c t i c a l here than i t i s i n o t h e r p l a c e s . With regard t o a comprehensive p o l i c y f o r Vancouver's cottage f i e l d t h e r e a r e two r e l e v a n t t i m e p e r i o d s . S h o r t Run F i r s t o f a l l i n t h e s h o r t r u n emphasis s h o u l d be on t h e c o n t i n u e d a c c e p t a n c e o f a u t o m o b i l e d e p e n d a n t c o t t a g i n g as a r e a s o n a b l e form o f r e c r e a t i o n w i t h a t t e m p t s b e i n g made t o d i r e c t c o t t a g i n g i n t o l o c a t i o n s somewhat c l o s e r t o V a n c o u v e r .  T h e r e a r e many n a t u r a l f o r c e s a t work i n  t h e V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e f i e l d w h i c h have t h e e f f e c t o f d i r e c t i n g t h e p r o s pective cottager to the i n t e r i o r o f the provinces.  Some o f t h e s e a r e  as f o l l o w s : T)  A p h y s i c a l shortage o f lakeshore areas c l o s e to Vancouver.  2)  A sunnier climate i n the i n t e r i o r of the province.  3)  The p r i c e f o r l a n d g e n e r a l l y drops as one t r a v e l s f a r t h e r away  from V a n c o u v e r . T h e s e f o r c e s can be c o u n t e r a c t e d t o some e x t e n t ( e x c e p t f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a t i o n s ) by a c o n c e r t e d e f f o r t a t p l a n n i n g and d e v e l o p m e n t . The i n t e n s i v e d e v e l o p m e n t o f s m a l l l a k e s near t o V a n c o u v e r  suggested  e a r l i e r c o u l d r e s u l t i n t h e p r o v i s i o n o f many more c o t t a g i n g opport u n i t i e s c l o s e t o Vancouver.  Increased development o f the sea coast  r e s o u r c e c o u l d a l s o p r o v i d e more c o t t a g i n g and o t h e r r e c r e a t i o n a l  .86  o p p o r t u n i t i e s c l o s e t o Vancouver.  I f a c o n c e r t e d and c o o r d i n a t e d  e f f o r t i s made many more c o t t a g e r s c a n be accommodated c l o s e t o t h e i r homes.  Some changes i n t h e t y p e o f c o t t a g e s e t t i n g w i l l o c c u r b u t  t h e s e c a n be compensated f o r .  The o t h e r a d v a n t a g e o f more i n t e n s i v e  c o t t a g e d e v e l o p m e n t s i s t h a t t h e y a r e more r e a d i l y a d a p t a b l e t o t h e use o f p u b l i c t r a n s i t from home t o c o t t a g e than a r e t o d a y ' s  dispersed  cottage development. The Long Run A long run c o t t a g i n g p o l i c y f o r the Vancouver cottage f i e l d could be one o f d i s c o u r a g i n g f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t once a l l p o s s i b l e l o c a l are developed  intensively,  areas  ( d i s c o u r a g i n g f u r t h e r d i s t a n t development)  A t t h a t t i m e emphasis c a n be p l a c e d on e n c o u r a g i n g  use o f a l t e r n a t i v e  forms o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o e x i s t i n g a r e a s and on d e v e l o p i n g o t h e r forms of r e c r e a t i o n as a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o t t a g i n g .  Transportation possibilities  could include: 1)  More e f f i c i e n t  use o f t h e automobile  (more e f f i c i e n t c a r s , o r g a n i -  zation o f c a r pools, e t c . ) 2)  P u b l i c t r a n s i t t o i n t e n s i v e l y developed  3)  C o m b i n a t i o n s o f p u b l i c t r n a s i t and p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s  transit terminals.  areas. left at  A s y s t e m l i k e t h i s i s p r e s e n t l y used on S a l t s p r i n g  I s l a n d where many c o t t a g e r s l e a v e a v e r y o l d c a r a t t h e i s l a n d f e r r y t e r m i n a l f o r t h e t r o p from t h e t e r m i n a l t o t h i e r c o t t a g e . Summary W h i l e t h e s e s u g g e s t i o n s may g i v e t h e i m p r e s s i o n o f c a l l i n g f o r a  87  much g r e a t e r d e g r e e o f government i n v o l v e m e n t p a r t i c i p a n t s may  i n an a c t i v i t y where the  p r e f e r t o be l e f t a l o n e t h i s does not need t o be s o .  V a r i o u s l e v e l s o f government a r e i n v o l v e d i n c o t t a g i n g now. d i s t r i c t s regulate developments.  Regional  In the p a s t t h e P r o v i n c i a l Lands  Branch has been d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n l a k e s h o r e s u b d i v i s i o n s as a developer.  Thus the m a j o r change s u g g e s t e d  c o o r d i n a t e d c o t t a g e p o l i c y be d e v e l o p e d  here i s simply t h a t a  w h i c h c o n s i d e r s both where  the c o t t a g e r comes f r o m ( l o c a t i o n o f permanent r e s i d e n c e ) and where he goes t o ( l o c a t i o n o f c o t t a g e ) .  I f t h i s i s done t h e o b j e c t i v e s s u g -  g e s t e d h e r e ( o r o t h e r s ) c o u l d be a t t a i n e d w i t h i n t h e p r e s e n t framework o f t h e  planning  province.  T h i s s t u d y has shown t h a t i t would be v e r y b e n e f i c i a l t o have a c o o r d i n a t e d c o t t a g i n g p o l i c y f o r the V a n c o u v e r c o t t a g e f i e l d . o u t l i n e d an a r e a where f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f the r e g i o n a l  I t has  planning  p r o c e s s would be h e l p f u l . T h i s t h e s i s has examined the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o t t a g i n g  and  t h e c o s t o f t r a v e l f r o m t h e v i e w p o i n t o f an e x i s t i n g c o t t a g e r ( i . e . one who a l r e a d y owns h i s c o t t a g e ) . considered.  The p r o s p e c t i v e c o t t a g e r has not been  Thus the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s f o r the  r e c r e a t i o n a l p r o p e r t y m a r k e t have n o t been i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y . I t i s l i k e l y t h a t i n c r e a s e s i n the c o s t of t r a v e l to cottages w i l l c a u s e t h e v a l u e o f c o t t a g e s t o d r o p a t the most d i s t a n t a r e a s . Cottages  l o c a t e d c l o s e t o V a n c o u v e r w i l l p r o b a b l y r i s e i n v a l u e as t h e  demand f o r c o t t a g e s i s s h i f t e d f r o m the more d i s t a n t a r e a s t o t h e c l o s e r ones. I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t as t r a v e l c o s t  r i s e s and c o t t a g e p r i c e s f a l l  88  t h a t t h e t o t a l c o s t o f c o t t a g i n g w i l l remain approximately c o u l d t h e n be s u g g e s t e d  constant.  It  t h a t i n t h e l o n g r u n use o f t h e c o t t a g e s would  change v e r y l i t t l e i n r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s i n g t r a v e l c o s t s .  This  theory  assumes t h a t c o t t a g e r s t r e a t f i x e d and v a r i a b l e c o s t s i n t h e same manner. case.  On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s s t u d y i t does n o t a p p e a r t h a t t h i s i s t h e Further i n v e s t i g a t i o n into the reactions of cottagers to the  d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s a c t i v i t y would be helpful. I n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a v e l c o s t i n c r e a s e s and t h e m a r k e t v a l u e o f c o t t a g e s would be h e l p f u l . A s t u d y based on d a t a o f a t l e a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s d u r a t i o n would be d e s i r a b l e i n o r d e r t o determine: 1)  I f t h e r e i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a v e l c o s t s and r e c r e a t i o n a l  property  values.  2)  What t h a t r e l a t i o n s h i p i s .  3)  I f the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s constant or v a r i a b l e over  time.  F u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h e t o t a l c o s t s o f c o t t a g i n g would a l s o be d e s i r a b l e . understanding  R e s e a r c h o f t h i s n a t u r e would p r o v i d e a g r e a t e r  o f the responses  of cottagers to travel cost increases.  .89 BIBLIOGRAPHY American S o c i e t y o f Planning O f f i c i a l s , S u b d i v i d i n g Rural America, r e p o r t t o t h e C o u n c i l on E n v i r o n m e n t a l Q u a l i t y , W a s h i n g t o n . 1976. A t m o s p h e r i c E n v i r o n m e n t S e r v i c e s , E n v i r o n m e n t Canada. M o n t h l y R e c o r d o f M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O b s e r v a t i o n s , May, 1976 t o A u g u s t , 1976. B e r n h a r d t , Kenneth L. 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"A New A p p r o a c h t o t h e E v a l u a t i o n o f Non P r i c e d R e c r e a t i o n a l R e s o u r c e s " , Land E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 44, F e b r u a r y , 1968. P l o t n i k o f f , James. C o t t a g i n g and R e l a t e d S u p p o r t S e r v i c e s , t h e s i s i n the S c h o o l o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U . B . C , 1970. Ragatz, R i c h a r d L e e . V a c a t i o n Homes - An A n a l y s i s o f t h e M a r k e t f o r S e a s o n a l R e c r e a t i o n a l H o u s i n g , Department o f Housing and D e s i g n , C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y , New York, 1969. Ragatz, R i c h a r d L. R e c r e a t i o n a l P r o p e r t i e s : An A n a l y s i s o f t h e M a r k e t f o r P r i v a t e l y Owned R e c r e a t i o n a l L o t s and L e i s u r e Homes, R i c h a r d L. R a g a t z A s s o c . , I n c . , Eugene, O r e g o n , 1974. R o l p h , E a r l R. "The F u e l C r i s i s - I t ' s Causes and I m p l i c a t i o n s " , P o l i c y Options f o r the Gasoline Shortage, Iber S p e c i a l P u b l i c a t i o n s , I n s t i t u t e o f B u s i n e s s a n d Economic R e s e a r c h , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , 1974. S t a t i s t i c s Canada.  Canadian S t a t i s t i c a l Review, O c t o b e r . 1976.  T a y l o r , S. M a r t i n . V a n c o u v e r Urban F u t u r e s P r o j e c t - B i o g r a p h i c a l and B e h a v i o u r a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Owners and Non Owners o f R e c r e a t i o n a l Accommodation i n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r , U . B . C , 1973. V i c k e r m a n , Roger. "The Demand f o r Non Work T r a v e l " , J o u r n a l o f T r a n s p o r t Economics and P o l i c y , May 1972.  92  MAP OF COTTAGE AREAS STUDIED  >P'  -  ...  (201 \ KIccnianaKlccnc  o VIM  4> to  _ .. T \ N J V ^  '.' \ » . * . /  ail  H  '/ /  ,  *Atcs*CK  {  ^  ...  Triilaycko  ^-'"^  Tatttri  v  Maicafelc,;^ j  «e«hCreek"jy."  •  wale  Hanceville, j V  ' ti  HTN. A I06IS  tit  5  y  "'^-e'hiei,  Quexntt  Rijke Creel  I  L.  ,.  .. L-lacK Creek SpfinghouoeK' k  T  >  Croc*  ' I  ^ ^ a ' Lake  \ if  1  •«  eralarnc \  | \\  V 100 Mile HcusJ'--^.^!' v ^ t i  \ N,  ,c«JWlfi  v ni  ,«! <yffyv^<v  * ~  , \ -s  B..'r..lj ^>r-cr^ [i,, j  L.  Htrlirrx La {if  i.*wA  v  '  Meadows c\  ~=Cf Ha*  . ^  LaHache\-,5 Uk,, 5 / \ fwea fag:» Cee'- "',.-**' V  Gang RancSpy^oog Creek^!, &  ~ IAM -'  5  0 0  '  11'  C a ^ C r e o ^ - ,  Ai'  i W  Jior.apnrte  '/.-.'  L:-;C  ^ ^  f- -'.'//• c  C'-.V,;;-'-'-'  .J  /"Cn.sCreek .. 57  ^^^^.'Wi:^  <VK^,>^  ^  r  GARIBALDI  :  _^  g?Q i L.niiii,'.  -> ^  v  '  •• Ki::ro-n Cay  I  *i.!i*^  CCtftjO'V S <  PROVINCIAL  Vftiia^^^paapert ':-,\:y.\/ ,., / Y^.'S fl  >  *>«r J'f,« um.  I  •} %.%)  ^-Vi  • PARK  r  .  J'\  / \v  .  „/:;/..>r.rV X-:..".:.:-,:  '  65  ./  f[2)  Spcnces ///A' Shaw /«p^  Ljt^fesg^lL y) Lcv.'Cf / v lll^" Canlord.^sy.,' • . / -• !! « A i«>«a * V./ v\ / ~»  \  y , - - \-y.a-  a  r  •  i«t.  -:  '-.  J  /  PAfiK  -P^%^  •mil  £'  4,*.  Lake  '  n Grove ;  ('  %%ha mans^  y .i'*"  7u  P  " o  I ^  ^..^y;!\>>a«  a  Z  ^  Victoria! V«. --'-'"^  !  ' Ariacortuj )  - . ... .1.-60)  ^ ^  s  S  V  .rAX,  /-.J  """  itttte  ,- ,, .  .1  •  ti<""r>*m 1  -..,.,,,,.1, » \\  LkLOOET  GOLDEN F.t.i<$ PROVINCIAL  vs.  /  r.iifoH  Ukt  ccnyatc]  few  land,,-;.. \  ,  ^  « " 1 l t l e e 4 U ^ ' t V — "%<*'*./„ • Soto Ccee«yj(jj) / Bii>late\ Ranch ^  M  n,i:k„i..  ^  •V"*-  , ,Kd,a^te,.,.le,C«k ^  J  L*.L._,  lMkt  Ca-.lk RociO «'»!  i ..... V IS- 2t '^.'H-; \  Homalhko  ,:  %  nuns* f  O C  ^^/))^\"^ '"' \\^^J^'Y V _ - / </ / J/'-^h \ EafV.ervi; r..,l>..,  Tatla lak '  vr.  i  Charlotte  -'T>,  tnrt*r**c*c  & 7  W/i Mialhnaver . /ft! /  1  /  H  "i|  />.«*«*)  l^A^p'  \  ;\  t • ?y" ^ ,/' » .y^:v-,i-'i-<i,.i^O-i'v*'t Mj.i^nu r  ;v,  rnL  Lake Lake m i N 3 ^ e group ~ ~ ^g r o u p - L o o n X Deka„ " ' 3 g W W K a n d S u l p h u r o u s rLoaukpe s- c a n i r a , *^-a - Qualicum Beach ~ Lake Cowichan J  30  m  i  l  e  CALCULATIONS OF TRAVEL COSTS FOR MAINLAND AND VANCOUVER ISLAND COTTAGES 1)  MAINLAND GASOLINE COSTS  660 m i l e s (Round t r i p )  4  18 m i l e s p e r g a l l o n = 3 6 . 6 g a l l o n s  1974 c o s t = 36.6 x $.55 = $20.31 1976 c o s t = 36.6 x $.85 = $31.16  2)  VANCOUVER ISLAND TRAVEL COSTS  Assume:  3 P e r s o n s p e r v e h i c l e and a c o n s t a n t g a s o l i n e c o s t o f $4.00 p e r r o u n d t r i p .  1975 C o s t = F e r r y f a r e ($5 + $2 + $2 + $2 = $11 x 2 = $22) + $4 1976 C o s t = F e r r y f a r e ($10 + $4 + $4 + $4 = $22 x 2 = $44) + $4  194 T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F BRITISH C O L U M B I A 2075 WliSIlROOK MALL VANCOUVER, B.C., C A N A D A V6T  IWS  SCI IOOL OI COMMUNITY & REGIONAL PLANNING :  February 15, 1977 Dear Cottager: I am undertaking a study of the e f f e c t s of p o s s i b l e higher future p r i c e s f o r gasoline on cottaging i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Several lake ar i n the province have been selected. This study i s part of a research p r o j e c t at the School of Community and Regional Planning at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. In' order to carry out this study i t i s necessary f o r me to obtain some information about cottaging i n the,province and about cottager's responses to future gasoline p r i c e increases. To this end here i s a questionnaire which I would ask you to complete. Some thought w i l l be required for a few of the questions but very l i t t l e w r i t i n g i s involves The questionnaire w i l l only take about 15 minutes of your time. The d; which you provide w i l l be treated with s t r i c t confidence and your response w i l l be anonymous. Please complete the questionnaire as soon as p o s s i b l e and forward in the stamped self-addressed envelop which i s enclosed for your convenience. Please do not sign the questionnaire. I w i l l contact y c again at a l a t e r date to check as to whether or not you have returned questionnaire. Thank you for your help and co-operation.  Yours very  truly,  Greg A. Rowe gar/b  97.  COTTAGE OWNER'S SURVEY 1.  How long have you owned your property? 1 year 10 years  2.  2-3 years  non-waterfront  What i s your p r i n c i p l e form of transportation to your cottage? private car train bus  4.  carpool with nearby cottagers other (please specify)  v i s i t s on holiday weekends  Please indicate the number of v i s i t s you made per year before the gasoline price increases of the l a s t few years. v i s i t s on ordinary weekends v i s i t s on extended vacation.  6.  •  How often do you use your cottage now?. Please indicate the t o t a l number of v i s i t s you made i n the l a s t 12 months i n each category. v i s i t s on ordinary weekends v i s i t s on extended vacation  5.  6-9 years  How close i s your cottage to the lake? waterfront  3.  4-5 years  v i s i t s on holiday weekends  The price of gasoline w i l l probably continue to increase. Could you please try to estimate how often you would go to your cottage at the following gasoline prices (assuming other prices and your wages remain as they are today). Please give your estimate of the t o t a l number of v i s i t s per year i n each category. GASOLINE COSTS  Per Gallon  $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $3.00  Round t r i p gasoline cost for 330 mile one way t r i p @ 20 miles per g a l . $33.00 50.00 66.00 100.00  ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VISITS PER YEAR Weekends  Holiday Weekends  Extended Vacation  If you use a car to reach your cottage would you please answer the  7.  following questions: (a) How many people normally ride i n your car f o r the t r i p to the cottage? 2 or less . 3-4 5 or more (b) What size of car do you use f o r the trip? subcompact f u l l size car (or truck) compact miles per gallon (c) What gas mileage do you get on the trip? occasionally regularly (d) Do you often tow a t r a i l e r ? never In the event of a future energy shortage which resulted i n gasoline rationing, which of the following would you do? Please check under the appropriate column.  8.  DEFINITELY  PROBABLY  UNLIKELY  Continue to use a car as regular transportation i n the c i t y and discontinue (or d r a s t i c a l l y reduce the number of) t r i p s to the cottage. Use public transportation to reach the cottage. Switch primarily to public t r a n s i t m the c i t y and continue to drive to your cottage Switch to a smaller, more economical car and continue present driving patterns. DfVipr, please specify  Why do you go to your cottage? their importance. Very  .  Important Important Not  • •• • —  Rate each of the following as to  Important  Good for children I s o l a t i o n , peace and quiet Sense of roughing i t , being close to nature Relaxation To engage in outdoor a c t i v i t i e s Get out of the c i t y Other -  99 10.  What was the primary purpose of buying your cottage? vacation hone  investment  retirement home  permanent home 11.  Can you r e c a l l what you did i n your spare time (time which you.now spend at your cottage) before you had your cottage? Check more than one i f necessary. v i s i t e d l o c a l parks or r e c r e a t i o n areas (not overnight) camping  v i s i t e d friends  r e l a x i n g at home  boating  v i s i t e d resorts  other (please explain)  In your opinion what i s the current market value of your cottage, i n c l u d i n g the lot? less than $5,000  $15,000-$20,000  $40,000 or  $5,000-$10,000  $20,000-$30,000  greater  $10,000-$15,000  $30,000-$40,000  Under what arrangement do you hold your property? clear t i t l e  lease  What i s the annual income of your family?  .  less than $5,000  $15,000-$20,000.  $40,000 or  $5,000-$10,000  $20,000-$30,000  greater  $10,000-$20,000  $30,000-$40,000  What i s your occupation? managerial p r o f e s s i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l clerical sales . service and recreation ' 16.  •  transport and communication craftsman labourer retired other  Check the highest l e v e l of education that you have achieved. elementary school trade t r a i n i n g or t e c h n i c a l school  high school university  VANCOUVER ISLAND COTTAGE OWNER'S SURVEY  How l o n g have you owned your  property?  1 year  6-9  years  2-3 y e a r s  10 y e a r s and over  4-5 y e a r s How o f t e n d i d you use your c o t t a g e t h i s p a s t summer? t o t a l number o f t r i p s p e r y e a r i n each c a t e g o r y .  Please write  Number of o r d i n a r y weekends Number o f h o l i d a y weekends Number o f weeks v a c a t i o n How o f t e n d i d you use your b e f o r e the f e r r y of  cottage i n other years  r a t e s were i n c r e a s e d ) ?  t r i p s p e r y e a r i n each  (average use  P l e a s e w r i t e t o t a l number  category.  Number o f o r d i n a r y weekends Number o f h o l i d a y weekends Number of weeks v a c a t i o n Why do you go to your their  cottage?  Rate each o f t h e f o l l o w i n g as t o  importance.  VERY IMPORTANT  IMPORTANT  NOT IMPORTANT Good f o r c h i l d r e n I s o l a t i o n , peace and q u i e t Sense o f roughing i t , being close to nature Relaxation To engage i n outdoor activities Other  -  101 5. In your o p i n i o n what i s the c u r r e n t market v a l u e o f your c o t t a g e , i n c l u d i n g the l o t ? less  than $5,000  $20,000 - $30,000  $5,000 - $10,000  $30,000 - $40,000  $10,000 - $15,000 $15,000 - $20,000 6. What i s the annual income o f your f a m i l y ? less  than $5,000  $20,000 - $30,000  $5,000 - $10,000  $30,000 - $40,000  $10,000 - $15,000 $15,000 - $20,000 7. What was t h e p r i m a r y purpose  f o r b u y i n g your c o t t a g e ?  v a c a t i o n home (and/or weekend home) investment u  r e t i r e m e n t home permanent home  

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