UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Planning for climatic variability Rutgers, P. U. 1977

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PLANNING FOR CLIMATIC VARIABILITY by PIETER ULRICH RUTGERS B.A., University of Newcastle upon Tyne;, 197.3' A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES, SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1977 0 Pieter Ulrich Rutgers, 1977 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requ i rement s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumb ia , I ag ree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s tudy . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s u n d e r s t o o d that c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i thout my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f Community and Regional Planning The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 29-4-1977 Date A B S T R A C T P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y A c c o r d i n g t o most c l i m a t o l o g i s t s the r e c e n t weather extremes a r e symptomatic o f the r e t u r n t o a more v a r i a b l e c l i m a t e a f t e r an u n u s u a l l y warm and s t a b l e t h i r t y t o f o r t y y e a r s t h a t came t o an end i n the e a r l y 1970s. T h i s p r o l o n g e d c l i m a t i c s t a b i l i t y has i n s t i t u t i o n a l i s e d the concept of a s t a b l e c l i m a t e among most p o l i c y and d e c i s i o n makers and c o n s e q u e n t l y , most l i f e s u p p o r t systems, f o o d , energy and w a t e r have been p l a n n e d f o r t o o narrow a range of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . Recent events b e g i n t o i l l u s t r a t e the s e r i o u s impacts t h a t a more v a r i a b l e , but more no r m a l , c l i m a t e has on t h e s e systems. T h i s t h e s i s has a t t e m p t e d t o : 1. A s s e s s the impact o f i n c r e a s e d c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y on the g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y of the M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams p r o j e c t s and o t h e r components of B.C. Hydro's i n t e g r a t e d power g e n e r a t i o n system. 2. Develop a p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n the c o n t e x t of e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia. i i The s t u d y i n c l u d e d a r e v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e on c l i m a t i c change, a r e v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e on p l a n n i n g under u n c e r t a i n t y , the development of a p l a n n i n g model and the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s model t o the h y d r o e l e c t r i c developments i n the Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n . The p l a n n i n g model i s i t e r a t i v e and r e c o g n i s e s seven phases: problem r e c o g n i t i o n , system i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of u n c e r t a i n t y , e x p l o r a t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y , f o r m u l a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , e v a l u a t i o n , and development of a commitment package. The case s t u d y p r o v i d e s an a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s model t o the management o f the M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams, and the c o n s t r u c t i o n and management of o t h e r components of the i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i o n system. The f o r t y y e a r s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d (1928-1968), the b a s i s o f g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g , appears t o be u n u s u a l l y s t a b l e when compared t o h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y as i n d i c a t e d by r e l e v a n t t r e e - r i n g d a t a . The " c r i t i c a l " p e r i o d on w h i c h the system's f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y i s based i s exceeded i n the Lake A t h a b a s c a c h r o n o l o g y . T h i s t r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g y , w h i c h c o r r e l a t e s w e l l w i t h the Columbia R i v e r s t r e a m f l o w , c o n t a i n s e v i d e n c e of a d r o u g h t , t w i c e the magnitude and t h r e e t i m e s the d u r a t i o n of the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d , w h i c h might have s t r u c k the Rocky Mountains between 1864 and 1880. Under these c o n d i t i o n s the M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams would g e n e r a t e r e s p e c t i v e l y 19$ and 17-8$ below d e s i g n p r o d u c t i o n . These l o s s e s c o u l d be absorbed by t h e , i n t e g r a t e d system, but f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n s i n o u t p u t , p o s s i b l y a r i s i n g i n the p o s t draw-down p e r i o d might, beyond 1980, l e a d t o o v e r a l l s u p p l y s h o r t f a l l s . I f t h i s d rought were t o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a f f e c t a l l h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n p l a n t s , power s h o r t a g e s of between 2$ and 6$ o f a n n u a l demand l o a d s c o u l d be e x p e c t e d . To improve the e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g system's r e s i l i e n c e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y , i t i s recommended t h a t i n i t i a l l y B.C. Hydro d e v e l o p and implement an energy c o n s e r v a t i o n program, w h i c h would reduce f o r e c a s t e d demands by 6% by 1980, c o n t r a c t power t o new i n d u s t r i a l customers on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s , e x t e n d the s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s o f the Peace and Columbia R i v e r s by means of t r e e - r i n g s and m o n i t o r c l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h . The extended r e c o r d s h o u l d f o r m the b a s i s o f a new energy c a p a b i l i t y b a l a n c e and some o f t h e o p t i o n s the a u t h o r i t y c o u l d t h e n c o n s i d e r a r e the c r e a t i o n of a t h e r m a l power r e s e r v e , the i n c r e a s e of l i v e s t o r a g e i n e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r s , the i n s t a l l a t i o n of a d d i t i o n a l g e n e r a t i n g equipment and the development of c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s t o f u r t h e r c u r t a i l demand and u t i l i s e the t h e r m a l r e s e r v e . T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S Page A b s t r a c t i i L i s t of Tables i x L i s t of F i g u r e s x Acknowledgement x i Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1 P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y 2 Methodology 9 2 CLIMATIC CHANGE 14 The Atmospheric System 15 H i s t o r i c Trends 16 C l i m a t i c E v o l u t i o n 19 Sources of C l i m a t i c Change 20 The Warming Hypothesis 22 The C o o l i n g Hypothesis 24 The S o l a r C l i m a t i c Hypothesis 27 G l o b a l P r e d i c t i o n s Based on the S o l a r C l i m a t i c Hypothesis 28 Conclus i o n s 30 v C h a p t e r Page 3 TOWARDS A PROCESS POR PLANNING- POR CLIMATIC VARIABILITY 3 2 C l i m a t i c U n c e r t a i n t i e s 33 I n t e g r a t i o n o f C l i m a t i c P l a n n i n g i n D e c i s i o n - m a k i n g P r o c e s s e s 36 Emerging Approaches t o P l a n n i n g under U n c e r t a i n t y 37 - A P r o b a b i l i t y Approach t o U n c e r t a i n t y 39 - U n c e r t a i n t y and E n v i r o n m e n t a l Impact 41 - . DOSRAP 45 - S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e 48 Towards a P l a n n i n g Model 53 L i m i t a t i o n s t o P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y 59 Summary 63 4 PLANNING POR CLIMATIC VARIABILITY THE CASE OP THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN 64 D e s c r i p t i o n o f Study A r e a 65 R e l e v a n c e o f Study A r e a 67 P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s 69 A. Problem R e c o g n i t i o n 69 B. System I d e n t i f i c a t i o n 70 C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of U n c e r t a i n t i e s 73 D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y 75 - T r e e - r i n g A n a l y s i s 75 C l i m a t i c H i s t o r y o f N o r t h w e s t e r n N o r t h A m e r i c a 77 v i C h a p t e r Page 4 ( C o n t i n u e d ) - Lake A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s 81 - P e y t o Lake Study 8 4 - U n c e r t a i n t y o f Impact 8 8 - M i c a Dam 88 - R e v e l s t o k e Dam 90 Impact on I n t e g r a t e d System 91 - C o n d i t i o n s o f System F a i l u r e 91 U n c e r t a i n t y of R i s k V a l u a t i o n 96 E. F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s 97 - O p e r a t i o n a l P l a n s 97 C o n t i n g e n c y P l a n s 98 D e s i g n C r i t e r i a and P o l i c y A d j u s t m e n t s 98 - E x p l o r a t o r y A c t i o n s 99 - U n c e r t a i n t y o f C l i m a t i c System S t r u c t u r e 99 U n c e r t a i n t y o f V a r i a n c e .... 100 - U n c e r t a i n t y of Impact 101 - U n c e r t a i n t y o f R i s k V a l u a t i o n 101 - M o n i t o r i n g P l a n s 102 F. E v a l u a t i o n 102 G-. Development o f a Commitment Package 103 5 SUTYMARY AND C O N C L U S I O N S 105 Use o f Data from the N a t u r a l S c i e n c e s ....... 105 P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y 107 v i i C h a p t e r Page 5 ( C o n t i n u e d ) C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y and H y d r o e l e c t r i c G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y 108 BIBLIOGRAPHY 116 APPENDIX ONE : DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL INFORMATION R e c o n s t r u c t e d C l i m a t e o f Western N o r t h A m e r i c a R e c o n s t r u c t e d L e v e l s f o r Lake A t h a b a s c a v i i i L I S T O F T A B L E S T a b l e Page 1 R e l a t i v e D e p a r t u r e by M a g n i t u d e and D u r a t i o n 78 2 Mean and S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n o f P a r t i a l and E n t i r e S e r i e s 80 3 Mean and V a r i a n c e o f L a k e A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s 83 4 Lake A t h a b a s c a A nomaly P e r i o d s 84 5 Mean and V a r i a n c e P e y t o L a k e C h r o n o l o g y ... 86 6 P e y t o L a k e Anomaly P e r i o d s 86 7 E n e r g y C a p a b i l i t y B a l a n c e - I n t e g r a t e d S y s t e m 93 8 E n e r g y C a p a b i l i t y B a l a n c e w i t h 5$ and 10$ R e d u c t i o n i n H y d r o e l e c t r i c P i r m E n e r g y 94 i x L I S T O F F I G U R E S F i g u r e Page 1 Pood f o r T h o u g h t 5 2 Mean T r e n d s i n G l o b a l C l i m a t e : The P a s t M i l l i o n Y e a r s 1 8 3 Warming o r C o o l i n g ? 25 4 M o d e l f o r DOSRAP 47 5 The S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e A p p r o a c h 5 0 6 L o c a t i o n Map f o r U p p e r C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n 66 7 S y s t e m R e l a t i o n s h i p s 71 x A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T The a u t h o r would l i k e t o e x p r e s s h i s s i n c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n t o I r v i n g Pox, J o h n Hay, M i c h a e l Q u i c k and M a r i o n P a r k e r f o r t h e i r t h o r o u g h a s s i s t a n c e and many h e l p f u l comments d u r i n g t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s . My t h a n k s a l s o t o many o t h e r f a c u l t y members and f r i e n d s who d i r e c t l y o r i n d i r e c t l y a s s i s t e d i n t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y . x i C h a p t e r One INTRODUCTION A c c o r d i n g t o many c l i m a t o l o g i s t s t h e r e c e n t w e a t h e r e x t r e m e s a r e s y m p t o m a t i c o f t h e r e t u r n t o a more v a r i a b l e c l i m a t e a f t e r an u n u s u a l l y warm and s t a b l e t h i r t y t o f o r t y y e a r s t h a t came t o an end i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 7 0 s . I t i s p r e c i s e l y i n t h i s u n u s u a l c l i m a t i c p e r i o d t h a t t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n d o u b l e d , a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n expanded and w e s t e r n s o c i e t i e s became i n c r e a s i n g l y r e l i a n t on s t e a d y e n e r g y s u p p l i e s . T h i s p r o l o n g e d c l i m a t i c s t a b i l i t y has i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d t h e c o n c e p t o f a s t a b l e c l i m a t e among most p o l i c y and d e c i s i o n makers. C o n s e q u e n t l y most l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s , f o o d , e n e r g y and w a t e r have been p l a n n e d f o r t o o n a r r o w a r a n g e o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y a nd r e c e n t e v e n t s b e g i n t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e s e r i o u s i m p a c t s t h a t a more v a r i a b l e , b u t more n o r m a l , c l i m a t e has on t h e s e s y s t e m s . C l i m a t o l o g i s t s c a n n o t g i v e us a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s o f t h e f u t u r e , b u t c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y p r o v i d e s a s o u r c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e m a g n i t u d e , d u r a t i o n and r a t e s o f c l i m a t i c c hange. I n p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y t h e 2 p l a n n e r o p e r a t e s i n t h e r e a l m o f u n c e r t a i n t y and a human r e s p o n s e w i l l have t o be f o u n d e d on an o n g o i n g a t t e m p t t o i d e n t i f y and d e f i n e t h e bounds o f c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t y . T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e d e c i s i o n makers w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t w i l l a s s i s t them t o d e s i g n s y s t e m s and p u r s u e p o l i c i e s t h a t a r e l e s s s u s c e p t i b l e t o f a i l u r e b e c a u s e o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . The c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s .are f o r m i d a b l e . C l i m a t o l o g i s t s a r e u n c e r t a i n a b o u t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m and i t s v a r i a t i o n i n d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s . E v e n l e s s i s known a b o u t t h e i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t i c change upon l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s and t h e r i s k s s o c i e t y i s p r e p a r e d t o t a k e . T h i s s t u d y i s an a t t e m p t t o examine t h e r a t i o n a l e o f and l i m i t a t i o n s upon p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y and has d e v e l o p e d a p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e i n t h e c a s e o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n i n B.C. P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y H i s t o r i c a l l y most p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y has been g e n e r a t e d i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f a d v e r s e c o n d i t i o n s . Some o f t h e e a r l i e s t examples of. p u r p o s e f u l p l a n n i n g h a v e , s u r p r i s i n g l y , been a r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . Many o f t h e f i r s t u r b a n s e t t l e m e n t s on t h e banks o f t h e R i v e r I n d u s , E u p h r a t e s , T i g r i s and t h e N i l e were s u b j e c t t o s u d d e n f l o o d s and p e r i o d i c i n u n d a t i o n s , and t h i s s p u r r e d i n h a b i t a n t s t o t a k e r e m e d i a l a c t i o n . O v er t i m e t h i s l e d t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a n e t w o r k o f embankments, c a n a l s and 3 i r r i g a t i o n works to p r o t e c t the settlements and improve the a g r i c u l t u r a l economy (Freund, 1974). In the e a r l y 1900's the main d r i v i n g f o r c e "behind p l a n n i n g i n England was the a p a l l i n g housing and s a n i t a r y c o n d i t i o n s of the i n d u s t r i a l towns. In North America, concern about the adverse impact of r a p i d urban and i n d u s t r i a l growth upon the s o c i a l and p h y s i c a l environment has been a major m o t i v a t i o n f o r p l a n n i n g . The focus of p l a n n i n g has widened c o n s i d e r a b l y from a predominant tendency to provide p h y s i c a l s o l u t i o n s f o r s o c i a l , environmental, and economic problems, to a more d i v e r s e approach i n c o r p o r a t i n g both p h y s i c a l and s o c i o -economic programs. U n t i l very r e c e n t l y p l a n n i n g assumed an u n l i m i t e d a b i l i t y to c o n t r o l and harness the p h y s i c a l environment. However, the emerging environmental c o n s c i o u s -ness and i t s a s s o c i a t e d p l a n n i n g p h i l o s o p h y are more r e s p e c t f u l of nature. Mankind's renewed awareness of h i s dependence on nature i s a complete r e v e r s a l from the t r a d i t i o n a l view t h a t nature was here to serve man. In t h i s new era of environmental concern, c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s b e ginning to be p e r c e i v e d as an element that might a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t the v e r y l i f e support systems of our ur b a n i s e d s o c i e t y . The h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e suggests t h a t the d e c i s i o n to p l a n f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y w i l l be based on p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t s to the a n t i c i p a t e d performance of our a g r i c u l t u r a l , energy and water supply systems. 4 E s s e n t i a l l y the g l o b a l community has become more s u s c e p t i b l e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e l a s t t h i r t y t o f o r t y y e a r s , because i n a p e r i o d of c l i m a t i c a l l y f a v o u r a b l e c o n d i t i o n s f o r f o o d p r o d u c t i o n (McKay, 1975) the w o r l d p o p u l a t i o n v i r t u a l l y d o u b l e d , g l o b a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i n c r e a s e d and i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n and s e l f i n d u l g e n t consumption p r o l i f e r a t e d i n the de v e l o p e d w o r l d . The d o u b l i n g of p o p u l a t i o n and the i n c r e a s e d i n t e r -dependence have c r e a t e d an a g r i c u l t u r a l s u p p l y and d i s t r i b u t i o n system i n w h i c h p r o d u c t i o n l o s s e s p o t e n t i a l l y a f f e c t the l i v e s o f m i l l i o n s i n the und e r d e v e l o p e d w o r l d . The s e n s i t i v i t y o f the a g r i c u l t u r a l system has been i l l u s t r a t e d i n a s t u d y c a r r i e d out by a group a t the U n i v e r s i t y of W i s c o n s i n (CIA, 1974). A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n has expanded enormously w i t h the u t i l i s a t i o n of m a r g i n a l l a n d s and the development o f c r o p s t r a i n s e s p e c i a l l y s u i t e d t o c a p i t a l i s e on the p r e v a i l i n g c l i m a t e . An assessment was made of the i m p l i c a t i o n s of a r e t u r n t o c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l i n g i n t he 1800s when the mid-western g r a i n p r o d u c i n g a r e a s of the U n i t e d S t a t e s were much c o o l e r and w e t t e r and the s n o w l i n e s o f the R u s s i a n Steppes l a s t e d f o r l o n g e r p e r i o d s o f t i m e . Under the s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s the p r e s e n t w o r l d p o p u l a t i o n c o u l d n ot be s u p p o r t e d ; m a r g i n a l l a n d s would become u n s u i t a b l e and t e c h n o l o g y would n ot be a b l e t o o f f e r o v e r n i g h t s o l u t i o n s . F u r t h e r m o r e , a g r i c u l t u r e would become more energy dependent. The e f f e c t s of d e c l i n i n g average a n n u a l t e m p e r a t u r e s on v a r i o u s r e g i o n s of the w o r l d i s shown Food for Thought Persons per hectare 5° Annual temperature centigrade Figure 1: Food for Thought From: A study of Climatic Research as i t pertains to Intelligence, C.I.A., 1974-i n F i g u r e 1 . A 1 C d r o p i n t e m p e r a t u r e w i l l c u t p r o d u c t i v i t y i n C h i n a by a b o u t 40$. F o r Canada t h i s f i g u r e i s 50$ w h i c h w o u l d be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a 75$ c u t i n e x p o r t s . However c r u d e , t h i s s t u d y s t r e n g t h e n s t h e b e l i e f t h a t p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t s a r e v e r y r e a l i n d e e d . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d when p o p u l a t i o n has doubled, e n e r g y u t i l i s a t i o n i n a b s o l u t e terms and p e r c a p i t a have a l s o i n c r e a s e d t r e m e n d o u s l y , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e d e v e l o p e d w o r l d where t h e i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n p r o c e s s e f f e c t i v e l y s u b s t i t u t e d human and a n i m a l power w i t h f o s s i l f u e l b a s e d e n e r g y i n p u t s . I n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y and i t s s u c c e s s o r , t h e consumer s o c i e t y , have e n c o u r a g e d a p r o f l i g a t e u s e o f e n e r g y t o a p o i n t where 30$ o f t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n now u s e 80$ o f t h e a n n u a l e n e r g y consumed ( I L E A , 1973). E x c e s s i v e e n e r g y u s e does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y e q u a t e w i t h s t a n d a r d s o f l i v i n g . Sweden, f o r i n s t a n c e , u s e s o n l y h a l f t h e p e r c a p i t a e n e r g y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , w h i l e s t a n d a r d s o f l i v i n g a r e c o m p a r a b l e (Ward, 1976). The p e r c a p i t a , c o n s u m p t i o n o f e n e r g y i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a has d o u b l e d between 1955 t o 1970. T h i s d o u b l i n g a p p l i e s t o b o t h g e n e r a l and h e a v y i n d u s t r i a l u s e r s o f e l e c t r i c i t y (BCPC, 1972). I n 1973 e l e c t r i c i t y a c c o u n t e d f o r 13.6$ o f t o t a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n B.C. T h i s i s e x p e c t e d t o r i s e t o 22.9$ i n 2006 (B.C. E n e r g y C o m m i s s i o n , 1976). P r e s e n t l y y 74-9$ o f p r o v i n c i a l power s u p p l i e s , i s h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y , b u t t h e l a t e s t p u b l i c f o r e c a s t s show a d e c l i n e t o 50$ by 1990. T h i s means t h a t a t l e a s t h a l f t h e p r o v i n c e ' s e l e c t r i c i t y 7 s u p p l i e s are d i r e c t l y impacted by i n c r e a s e d c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . Other energy sources, too, are a f f e c t e d but more i n d i r e c t l y through f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the c o s t s of e x t r a c t i o n , storage and d i s t r i b u t i o n . Energy demand i s a l s o s e n s i t i v e to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . L i t t l e has been p u b l i s h e d but the extreme c o l d i n the e a s t e r n U.S. and Canada d u r i n g the past year has i l l u s t r a t e d the consequences of p l a n n i n g on too s h o r t an i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d . In economic terms i t has been estimated that h i g h e r f u e l b i l l s and l o s t wages and s a l a r i e s have reduced p u b l i c spending power by between $3 and $8 b i l l i o n (Economist, 1977). S t u d i e s of demand s e n s i t i v i t y suggest t h a t a -2.2°C departure from normal d a i l y mean temperatures f o r the three w i n t e r months w i l l r e s u l t i n a 9$ i n c r e a s e i n f u e l consumption f o r space h e a t i n g i n Toronto (Science C o u n c i l of Canada, 1975). T h i s study a l s o estimates that a r e c u r r e n c e of a c o l d s p e l l t h a t s t r u c k the n o r t h e r n U.S. and Canada i n February 1936 would have i n c r e a s e d f u e l consumption by 50$ above average. The c u r r e n t drought i n the western p a r t of the c o n t i n e n t and the d i s a s t r o u s Sahel drought i n 1972 provide. 1 s i m i l a r i l l u s t r a t i o n s of system f a i l u r e . R a t i o n i n g of water i n C a l i f o r n i a , s e r i o u s cutbacks i n t h a t s t a t e ' s a g r i c u l t u r a l output and the threatened power shortages i n Washington are symptomatic of a s o c i e t y which has been deluded by a f a l s e i m pression of c l i m a t i c s t a b i l i t y . 8 I n summary the r a t i o n a l e f o r p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s r o o t e d i n p e r c e i v e d t h r e a t s t o the performance of the a g r i c u l t u r a l , energy and wa t e r s u p p l y systems, w h i c h are v i t a l i n s u s t a i n i n g our u r b a n i z e d s o c i e t y . C l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y s h o u l d s u b s t i t u t e c l i m a t i c s t a b i l i t y as a major a s s u m p t i o n i n p l a n n i n g . I n B r i t i s h Columbia between 10$ and 15$ of the t o t a l energy r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e met from a c l i m a t i c a l l y dependent energy s o u r c e , h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y . The p l a n n i n g and development of the h y d r o e l e c t r i c system has l a r g e l y been p r e d i c a t e d on a s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d f rom the p e r i o d 1928-1968 (B.C. Hydro, 1977), w h i c h c l i m a t o l o g i s t s have argued t o be g l o b a l l y u n u s u a l l y s t a b l e . I f , as t h i s t h e s i s w i l l s u g g e s t , t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t h a t the s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d i s u n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of l o n g term h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y , t hen the managers of t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c system do n o t appear t o be t a k i n g c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n t o a c c o u n t . I t i s i n t h i s c o n t e x t t h a t the s t u d y w i l l a t t e m p t : t o a s s e s s the impacts of i n c r e a s e d c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y on the g e n e r a t i n g c a p a b i l i t y of the M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams and o t h e r components-of B.C. Hydro's i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i n g system; t o o u t l i n e a p l a n n i n g response t h a t w i l l d e v e l o p an i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i n g system f o r B.C. t h a t w i l l be more r e s i l i e n t t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . 9 The m e t h o d o l o g y u s e d t o a c h i e v e t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s i s d e s c r i b e d b elow. M e t h o d o l o g y I n v e r y b r o a d t e r m s , t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e s was f o l l o w e d by a r e v i e w o f l i t e r a t u r e on c l i m a t i c c hange, a r e v i e w o f l i t e r a t u r e on p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y , t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a p l a n n i n g model and t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s model t o t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c d e v e l o p m e n t s i n t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n . The f o r m u l a t i o n >of o b j e c t i v e s was d y n a m i c . W o r k i n g o b j e c t i v e s were s e t b a s e d on a s c a n n i n g o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e , and t h e s e were m o d i f i e d as r e s e a r c h p r o c e e d e d and new p e r s p e c t i v e s o f t h e p r o b l e m e v o l v e d . The l i t e r a t u r e on c l i m a t i c change was r e v i e w e d t o g a i n f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h e b a s i c s t r u c t u r e and d y n a m i c s o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m , t h e h i s t o r i c t r e n d s i n c l i m a t i c c h a n g e, t h e c a u s e s o f c l i m a t i c c h a n g e , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between g l o b a l and l o c a l c l i m a t i c r e g i m e s , t h e c o n v e r g e n c e o r d i v e r g e n c e i n t h e o r i e s a b o u t c l i m a t i c change and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f g l o b a l p r e d i c t i o n s . T h i s l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w p r o v e d t h a t t h e s u b j e c t o f c l i m a t i c change p r e s e n t e d c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y i n t e r m s o f u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e s t r u c t u r e o f s y s t e m , t h e s t a t e s o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m and i t s i m p a c t s on l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e p l a n n i n g a p p r o a c h t o be d e v e l o p e d w o u l d have 10 t o be f l e x i b l e . I t had t o be f l e x i b l e enough t o a b s o r b t h e a n t i c i p a t e d r a p i d and c o n t r o v e r s i a l d e v e l o p m e n t s i n t h e knowledge a b o u t c l i m a t i c c h a n g e, and y e t be a b l e t o t a k e p l a n n i n g d e c i s i o n s b a s e d on l i m i t e d d a t a , w i t h o u t a s s u m i n g t h e d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n t y t h a t i s i n f e r r e d f r o m B.C. H y d r o ' s p r e s e n t d a t a b a s e . T h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o c u s e d t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w o f p l a n n i n g m e t h o d o l o g i e s t o t h o s e e x p l i c i t l y d e a l i n g w i t h t h e i s s u e o f p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y . P o u r a p p r o a c h e s t o p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y were r e v i e w e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o methods o f i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and management o f u n c e r t a i n t y and t h e c o n t e x t i n w h i c h t h e y have been a p p l i e d . A l l f o u r a p p r o a c h e s assumed t h a t man had t o t a l o r p a r t i a l c o n t r o l o v e r t h e s y s t e m w h i c h p r e s e n t e d t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s . C l i m a t e on t h e o t h e r hand has a c o n t r o l l i n g i n f l u e n c e o v e r many o f t h e human l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s and i s n o t s u b j e c t t o p u r p o s e f u l human m a n i p u l a t i o n . A model a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e p l a n n i n g , d e s i g n and management o f l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s w h i c h a r e s u s c e p t i b l e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y was d e v e l o p e d , u s i n g some o f t h e components o f more t r a d i -t i o n a l a p p r o a c h e s t o p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y . T h i s p l a n n i n g model i s c y c l i c a l and has t h e f o l l o w i n g p h a s e s : A. P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n B. S y s t e m I d e n t i f i c a t i o n C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y E . F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s 11 F. E v a l u a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s G. D e v e l o p m e n t o f a Commitment P a c k a g e The c a s e s t u d y e x a m i n i n g t h e i n a d e q u a c y o f t h e management r e s p o n s e r e l a t i v e t o t h e i m p a c t s o f p o t e n t i a l c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y on t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c d e v e l o p m e n t s i n t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n , i m p l e m e n t s one i t e r a t i o n o f t h e f i r s t f i v e p h a s e s o f t h i s p r o c e s s . The work on t h e s e p h a s e s was c a r r i e d out a s f o l l o w s : A. P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n - r e v i e w o f e n g i n e e r i n g s t u d i e s and an i n t e r v i e w w i t h Hydro o f f i c i a l s . B. S y s t e m I d e n t i f i c a t i o n - The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p e r t i n e n t s y s t e m was b a s e d on a l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w and d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h e n g i n e e r s and c l i m a t o l o g i s t s . C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y - U n c e r t a i n t y o f s y s t e m s s t r u c t u r e and v a r i a n c e were i d e n t i f i e d s u b s e q u e n t t o a r e v i e w o f t h e c l i m a t i c l i t e r a t u r e and t h e m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a f o r t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a B a s i n . D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y - The f e a s i b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s methods o f e x p l o r i n g u n c e r t a i n t y o f v a r i a n c e was d i s c u s s e d w i t h f a c u l t y i n t h e d e p a r t m e n t s o f b o t a n y , g e o l o g y , g e o g r a p h y and f o r e s t r y . T r e e - r i n g a n a l y s i s p r o v e d t o be most p r o m i s i n g and- r e p o r t s on r e l e v a n t t r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g i e s were c o l l e c t e d and a n a l y s e d . T r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g i e s were examined r e l a t i v e t o t h e i r r e l a t i o n t o s t r e a m f l o w i n t h e C o l u m b i a B a s i n and v a r i a b i l i t y f o r t h e whole s e r i e s and a f o r t y y e a r p e r i o d i n t h e 1900's. Anomaly p e r i o d s were a s s e s s e d on t h e m a g n i t u d e 12 and d u r a t i o n o f t h e p e r t u r b a t i o n s . T h e s e h i s t o r i c i n d i c a t o r s f o r m e d t h e i n p u t f o r s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s e s on t h e e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams and t h e i n t e g r a t e d s y s t e m c o n s i s t i n g o f h y d r o and t h e r m a l components. E. F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s - The i n i t i a l i n d i c a t i o n s o f t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y s u g g e s t e d power s h o r t a g e s m i g h t a r i s e u n d e r c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s . O p t i o n s f o r a p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y c o n s i s t i n g o f o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s , c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s , f u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n s o f u n c e r t a i n t y and m o n i t o r i n g was d e v e l o p e d t o a v o i d c r i t i c a l s y s t e m f a i l u r e as a r e s u l t o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . The e v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s and f o r m u l a t i o n o f a commitment p a c k a g e has been o m i t t e d f r o m t h i s t h e s i s b e c a u s e o f t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s . T h r o u g h a p r o c e s s o f g o a l f o r m u l a t i o n , l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w , d e v e l o p m e n t o f a p l a n n i n g model and t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s model t o t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n t h e t h e s i s has i l l u s t r a t e d t h e n e e d f o r and t h e p o s s i b l e s c o p e o f human r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . The r e m a i n d e r o f t h e r e p o r t i s o r g a n i z e d i n t h r e e c h a p t e r s . C h a p t e r two i s a r e v i e w o f t h e c l i m a t i c change l i t e r a t u r e , C h a p t e r t h r e e c h a r a c t e r i s e s t h e c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s , and examines e m e r g i n g a p p r o a c h e s t o p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y . I t a l s o d e v e l o p s a model f o r t h e p l a n n i n g and management o f s y s t e m s whose p e r f o r m a n c e i s d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . C h a p t e r f o u r a p p l i e s t h i s model t o t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams i n t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a 1 3 B a s i n and o t h e r components o f t h e i n t e g r a t e d s y s t e m . C h a p t e r f i v e c o n t a i n s t h e c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e s t u d y . On t h e o a s i s o f t r e e - r i n g i n d i c a t o r s t h e s t u d y c o n c l u d e s t h a t t h e c l i m a t e o f t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a B a s i n has p r o b a b l y been c o n s i d e r a b l y more v a r i a b l e t h a n t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d w ould s u g g e s t . A r e c u r r e n c e o f t h i s v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e C o l u m b i a and P e a c e R i v e r w o u l d a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y l e a d t o s h o r t f a l l s i n power s u p p l y u n l e s s i n c r e a s e d v a r i a b i l i t y i s r e c o g n i z e d and p l a n n e d f o r . P l a n n i n g o p t i o n s would i n c l u d e i n c r e a s i n g t h e l i v e s t o r a g e i n r e s e r v o i r s , c r e a t i n g a t h e r m a l r e s e r v e , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f an e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n p r o g r a m and m a i n t a i n i n g c o n t a c t w i t h c l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h a c a d e m i c and g o v e r n m e n t a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a c r o s s N o r t h A m e r i c a . Chapter Two CLIMATIC CHANGE The purpose of t h i s chapter i s to pr o v i d e a b a s i c o u t l i n e of : - the atmospheric system the h i s t o r i c c l i m a t i c trends the v a r i o u s t h e o r i e s of c l i m a t i c change the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of g l o b a l c l i m a t i c bounds, w i t h i n which the c l i m a t i c system of the Columbia R i v e r study area can be expected to f l u c t u a t e over the 50-year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d . The d i s t i n c t i o n between weather, c l i m a t e , c l i m a t i c change and f l u c t u a t i o n should be made. Weather i s u s u a l l y d e f i n e d as 'the t o t a l i t y of atmospheric c o n d i t i o n s at a p a r t i c u l a r p l a c e and time', while c l i m a t e i s 'the sum t o t a l -of weather experiences at a p l a c e i n a year or over years, i n c l u d i n g normal as w e l l as extreme c o n d i t i o n s ' (Lamb, 1972). C l i m a t i c change i s o f t e n used i n a g e n e r i c sense r e f e r r i n g to a l l c l i m a t i c v a r i a n c e . In t h i s study i t w i l l be used to d e s c r i b e v a r i a n c e measured on the s c a l e of c e n t u r i e s and the term c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y r e l a t e s to v a r i a n c e measured on the s c a l e of decades. A whole gambit of nomenclature a s s o c i a t e d 15 w i t h the d i f f e r e n t time p e r i o d s has been suggested hut t h i s seems u n n e c e s s a r i l y complex f o r t h i s p l a n n i n g study-, which w i l l focus on decadal v a r i a b i l i t y . The Atmospheric System The atmospheric c i r c u l a t i o n system can be conceived of as a g i a n t heat engine d r i v e n by s o l a r energy. Absorbed s o l a r r a d i a t i o n heats the globe, which i n t u r n r e - r a d i a t e s some of the heat i n t o space, hence m a i n t a i n i n g a g l o b a l energy e q u i l i b r i u m . Much of the energy i s expended i n h o r i z o n t a l and v e r t i c a l c i r c u l a t i o n of a i r masses, which r e s u l t s from the d i f f e r e n t i a l r a t e s of s o l a r h e a t i n g and long-wave r a d i a t i o n c o o l i n g , the r o t a t i o n of the e a r t h and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of land and sea masses. The incoming s o l a r energy, which v a r i e s over m i l l i o n s of years w i t h the o r b i t and t i l t of the e a r t h , i s f i l t e r e d through s t r a t o s p h e r e and troposphere. About 25-30$ of incoming energy i s s c a t t e r e d and r e f l e c t e d back i n t o space by dust and clouds at a l l e l e v a t i o n s . At the lower l e v e l s clouds, dust and C 0 2 and E^O absorb another 18$ and the e a r t h absorbs 47$ ( O l i v e r , 1973). The g e n e r a l r e f l e c t i v i t y or albedo of the earth's s u r f a c e and atmosphere are determinants of the amounts a v a i l a b l e f o r heat a b s o r p t i o n . The albedo i s r e l a t i v e l y h i g h f o r snow and i c e (40-85$) and much lower f o r vegetated areas (5-30$). Oceans have a wider range of r e f l e c t i v i t y (2-78$) IB-d e p e n d i n g on a n g l e o f i n s o l a t i o n and r o u g h n e s s o f t h e s e a s u r f a c e (Lamb, 1 9 7 2 ) . W i t h between 7 - 5 $ and 1 5 $ o f t h e e a r t h ' s s u r f a c e c o v e r e d by snow and i c e , snow a l b e d o becomes a m a j o r v a r i a b l e i n t h e h e a t b a l a n c e ( K u k l a , 1 9 7 4 ) . T e r r e s t r i a l r a d i a t i o n i s a b s o r b e d by t h e a t m o s p h e r e and i n p a r t i c u l a r by c l o u d s and CO^, c r e a t i n g t h e s o - c a l l e d g r e e n -house e f f e c t . The H^O and CO^ a b s o r b t h e r a d i a t i o n and t h e s i t u a t i o n i s t h u s a n a l o g o u s t o a g r e e n h o u s e w h i c h i s more t r a n s p a r e n t t o t h e i n c o m i n g s o l a r s h o r t wave r a d i a t i o n t h a n i t i s t o l o n g wave r a d i a t i o n s e n t out f r o m e a r t h (Lamb, 1 9 7 2 ) . A t a v e r y b r o a d g l o b a l l e v e l s o l a r and t e r r e s t r i a l r a d i a t i o n , d u s t l o a d i n g and l e v e l s o f CO^ and HgO, s u r f a c e a l b e d o , t h e e a r t h ' s r o t a t i o n and t h e i n t e r a c t i o n between a t m o s p h e r e , oceans and l a n d m a s s e s t h r o u g h t h e h y d r o l o g i c c y c l e a r e t h e m a j o r components a f f e c t i n g t h e g l o b a l c l i m a t e . Changes i n t h e s e f a c t o r s and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c l i m a t i c c h a n g e s and f l u c t u a t i o n s . H i s t o r i c T r e n d s The c l i m a t e has a l w a y s b e e n c h a n g i n g , c o n t r a r y t o t h e p o p u l a r p e r c e p t i o n t h a t , b e s i d e s t h e change f r o m g l a c i a l t o i n t e r g l a c i a l , t h e c l i m a t e has been s t a t i c . T h i s m i s c o n c e p t i o n t e n d s t o be r e i n f o r c e d by t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f 3 0-year n o r m a l p e r i o d s i n m e t e o r o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s . The i n f e r r e d n o r m a l i t y i s a l m o s t d a i l y t r a n s m i t t e d t o m i l l i o n s o f h o u s e h o l d s i n s u c h comments as 'the temperature i s above normal f o r the time o f • the y e a r ' . The weather i t s e l f has l a t e l y seen t o c h a l l e n g e n o r m a l i t y , t h r o u g h d r o u g h t s , c r o p f a i l u r e s and extreme w i n t e r c o n d i t i o n s i n the e a s t e r n N o r t h A m e r i c a s . T h i s t o g e t h e r w i t h the advent of v o c a l c l i m a t i c change proponents has s p r e a d c o n c e r n i n many p a r t s of t h e w o r l d . R e v i e w i n g c l i m a t i c change on time s c a l e s f rom 100 t o 1,000,000 y e a r s ( F i g . 2/>) i t i s i m m e d i a t e l y o b v i o u s t h a t v a r i a b i l i t y i s a key c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f c l i m a t i c b e h a v i o u r and t h a t on a l l time s c a l e s the p r e s e n t c l i m a t e i s a r e l a t i v e l y warm one. The l a s t f u l l s c a l e i c e age e x i s t e d some 17,000 y e a r s ago, a g l o b a l maximum temp e r a t u r e was reached 8,000 y e a r s b e f o r e p r e s e n t and s i n c e t h e n a f l u c t u a t i n g but g e n e r a l l y c o o l i n g t r e n d has s e t i n . I n t h e l a s t m i l l e n n i u m ( F i g . 2) a l i t t l e i c e age o c c u r r e d between the 15th and 18th c e n t u r i e s . A number of q u a s i - p e r i o d i c o s c i l l a t i o n s over 100,000, 42,000, 23,000 and 2,500 y e a r s and o t h e r s i n the o r d e r of 200 to 100 y e a r s have been p e r c e i v e d ( F e d e r a l C o u n c i l f o r S c i e n c e and Technology, 1974). The 100,000 and 23,000 y e a r c y c l e s are t h ought t o r e l a t e t o the o r b i t a l changes of the e a r t h . The changes i n the t i l t of the e a r t h ' s a x i s are b e l i e v e d t o f o l l o w t h e 42,000 y e a r c y c l e . The cause f o r the n e o g l a c i a l or 2,500 y e a r c y c l e remains unknown but t h i s c y c l e i n c l u d e s the l i t t l e i c e age. The 100 t o 200 y e a r c y c l e s are i n d i s p u t e but a t l e a s t t h r e e s c i e n t i s t s (Dansgaard, 1971; Lamb, 48 MAIN TRENDS IM G L O B A L CLIMATE: THE PAST MILLION YEARS AIR TEMPERATURE COLO WARM i — r COLD WARM 1 i 1 I 0 .2 .4 .6 A T ° C A. T H E LAST 10* YRS. LEGEND: 1. T H E R M A L MAXIMUM O F 1940s 2. LITTLE ICE A G E 3. YOUNGER DRYAS COLD INTERVAL 4. PRESENT INTERGLACIAL (HOLOCENE) 5. PENULTIMATE INTERGLACIAL (EEMLAN) B. THE LAST 10 3 YRS. MID — LATITUDE COLD- WARM AIR TEMPERATURE COLD WARM ~ 1 0 ° C C. T H E LAST 10 4 YRS. -0 ~ 1 0 ° C D. THE LAST 10 5 YRS. G L O B A L ICE V O L U M E MAX MIN ~ 5 x 1 0 1 6 m 3 E . T H E L A S T 1 0 6 Y R S . Figure 1—Main trends jn global climate: tho past million years, (a) Changes in the five-year average surface temperatures over the region 0 - SON; (b) Winter severity index for eastern Europe; (c) Generalized northern hemisphere air-temparature trends, bas<*d on fluctuations in alpine glaciers, changes in tree-iines, marginal fluctuations in continental glaciers, and shifts in vegetation patterns recorded in pollen spectra; (d) Generalized northern hemisphere air-temperalure trends based on mid-latitude sea-surface temperature, pollen records, and on worldwide sea-level records; (e) Fluctuations in global ice-volume recorded as changes in isotopic composition of fossil plankton in deep-sea core V23-233. Reproduced from Report of the GARP Panel on Climatic Variation (submitted to USC/GARP). F i g u r e 2: Main Trends i n G l o b a l Climate The P a s t M i l l i o n Years From: Report o f the Ad Hoc P a n e l on the P r e s e n t 1974. 19 1972; W i l l e t , 1975) acknowledge t h e i r e x i s t e n c e i n the l a s t century, but no c o n c l u s i v e evidence has been found p r i o r t o t h a t p e r i o d (FCST, 1974). The s o l a r c l i m a t i c hypothesis d i s c u s s e s the s h o r t e r term c y c l e s a t l e n g t h (see below). Two p o i n t s should be borne i n mind. F i r s t l y , i t i s wrong to be d u l l e d by the apparent smoothness of c l i m a t i c dynamics, these o s c i l l a t i o n s have been averaged s t a t i s t i c a l l y and i c e core a n a l y s i s i n Greenland has shown that very abrupt changes have occurred. F o r i n s t a n c e , the change from f u l l g l a c i a t i o n to an average temperature warmer than p r e s e n t l y experienced took l e s s than 100 years (Dansgaard, 1971)- Secondly, decadal v a r i a b i l i t y may appear s m a l l when viewed from the c l i m a t o -l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , but on the human time s c a l e these changes have proven to be very s i g n i f i c a n t i n terms of food supply (Bryson, 1974). C l i m a t i c E v o l u t i o n The e x i s t e n c e of the c y c l e s should not be i n t e r p r e t e d as evidence of complete p e r i o d i c i t y i n the c l i m a t i c e v o l u t i o n . Some s c h o l a r s present a case f o r a n o n - l i n e a r almost random e v o l u t i o n a r y development of the c l i m a t e (Lorenz, 1967). A t h i r d s c h o o l adhering to what i s c a l l e d the Hearst phenomenon have combined both i d e a s , w i t h the major trends being r e c u r r i n g f e a t u r e s , but i n t e r s p e r s e d w i t h random 'auto-excursions' from these t r e n d s . The three concepts 20 r e q u i r e d i f f e r e n t a p p r o a c h e s b o t h i n t e r m s o f a n a l y s i s and p r e d i c t i o n . They a l s o p ose f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m s f o r a m o n i t o r i n g p r o g r a m . A v a r i a t i o n f r o m an e s t a b l i s h e d mean c a n be t h e s t a r t o f t h e new l o n g t e r m t r e n d , an a u t o e x c u r s i o n o r m e r e l y s t a t i s t i c a l n o i s e . T h i s dilemma i s l i k e l y t o h a u n t t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f a human r e s p o n s e f o r some c o n s i d e r a b l e t i m e . S o u r c e s o f C l i m a t i c Change I n t h i s s e c t i o n t h e t e r m c l i m a t i c change i s u s e d i n i t s g e n e r i c m e a n i n g r e f e r r i n g t o f l u c t u a t i o n s a t a l l t i m e s c a l e s . C l i m a t i c change mechanisms have been c l a s s e d i n two c a t e g o r i e s : e x t e r n a l and i n t e r n a l . E x t e r n a l c a u s e s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m s o u r c e s t h a t have no f e e d b a c k l i n k s w i t h t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m , w h i l e i n t e r n a l c a u s e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s e d by f e e d b a c k l i n k s . E x a m p les o f e x t e r n a l c a u s e s a r e t h e e a r t h ' s o r b i t and t i l t , t h e s o l a r o u t p u t , and a n t r o p o g e n i c a l l y i n d u c e d s o u r c e s s u c h as COg, p a r t i c u l a t e and f r e o n p o l l u t i o n . CO^ and p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n a r e c o r n e r s t o n e s i n t h e warming and c o o l i n g h y p o t h e s e s and t h e s e w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l b elow. F r e o n p o l l u t i o n has o n l y r e c e n t l y g a i n e d p r o m i n e n c e as a p o t e n t i a l m o d i f i e r o f t h e c l i m a t e . F r e o n , s c i e n t i f i c a l l y known as c h l o r o f l u o r o c a r b o n , i n t e r a c t s w i t h t h e c h e m i s t r y o f 21 the p r o t e c t i v e ozone l a y e r , r e s u l t i n g i n i n c r e a s e d t r a n s p a r e n c y t o u l t r a v i o l e t l i g h t . A l t h o u g h the p h y s i c a l p r o c e s s i s an e s t a b l i s h e d f a c t , t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e doubt whether the q u a n t i t i e s r e l e a s e d t h r o u g h a e r o s o l s a r e s u f f i c i e n t t o be s i g n i f i c a n t . The n a t u r a l l y o s c i l l a t i n g l e v e l of ozone, has been m o n i t o r e d f o r t o o s h o r t a p e r i o d t o p r o v i d e c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e ( B a i n , 1976). R e t u r n i n g t o i n t e r n a l causes of change, i t s h o u l d be noted t h a t the feedback mechanisms can be p o s i t i v e ( r e i n f o r c i n g the d e v i a t i o n ) o r n e g a t i v e ( c o u n t e r a c t i n g the d i s t u r b a n c e ) i n n a t u r e . Furthermore our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e s e adjustment mechanisms i s v e r y l i m i t e d (NAS, 1975). Two of the most i m p o r t a n t i n t e r n a l causes o f change, the atmosphere-ocean r e l a t i o n s h i p s and the atmosphere-cryosphere system;,, w i l l be d i s c u s s e d . The atmosphere-ocean system has many r e l a t i o n s h i p s and i t s i m p o r t a n c e can r e a d i l y be u n d e r s t o o d , c o n s i d e r i n g the oceans r e c e i v e h a l f t h e s o l a r r a d i a t i o n and have a c o m p l i c a t e d p a t t e r n of f l o w s t h a t t r a n s f e r heat h o r i z o n t a l l y . The oceans s t o r e v a s t amounts of energy i n the top 100 m l a y e r and depending on s u r f a c e - a i r temperature r a t i o , s e n s i b l e heat t r a n s f e r o c c u r s between the two media. I n a d d i t i o n water vapour p r e s s u r e r a t i o s r e g u l a t e the t r a n s f e r of m o i s t u r e . Lamb (1972) has been a b l e t o r e l a t e some o c e a n i c t e m p e r a t u r e anom-a l i e s t o the weather a few months hence. The atmosphere-cryosphere system has l o n g been 22 acknowledged as an i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e i n c l i m a t i c f l u c t u a -t i o n s . However, i t was not u n t i l s a t e l l i t e photography t h a t a s y s t e m a t i c r e c o r d of the e x t e n t of snow and i c e c o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d . B o t h the i n c r e a s e d s u r f a c e a l b e d o and the energy r e q u i r e d i n the m e l t i n g p r o c e s s l e a d t o a c o o l i n g t r e n d . The anomalous weather p a t t e r n s of 1972/3 may have been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the u n u s u a l l y e x t e n s i v e snow and i c e coverage i n the p r e c e d i n g t h r e e y e a r s ( K u k l a , 1974). C o n s i d e r a b l e c a u t i o n must be e x e r c i s e d i n t h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n as s a t e l l i t e mapping i s o n l y seven y e a r s o l d . The Warming H y p o t h e s i s P r o ponents of t h i s h y p o t h e s i s argue t h a t the i n c r e a s e d use of f o s s i l f u e l s r e l e a s e s amounts of 00^ i n t o the atmosphere, w h i c h w i l l by the end of t h i s c e n t u r y l e a d t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e warming of the g l o b a l atmosphere (2.4°C). The term runaway greenhouse i s a l s o used t o d e s c r i b e t h i s s c e n a r i o . The amount of a t m o s p h e r i c C 0 2 produced i n excess of the n a t u r a l c a r b o n d i o x i d e c y c l e has i n c r e a s e d f rom .9$ i n 1900 t o 10.2$ i n 1970 and i s e x p e c t e d to double i t s c o n c e n t r a t i o n a g a i n by 1990, assuming t h a t the oceans w i l l c o n t i n u e t o absorb 50$ of CO^ produced and t h a t the a b s o l u t e amount w i l l i n c r e a s e 3$ a n n u a l l y . Based on c a l c u l a t i o n s by v a r i o u s s c i e n t i s t s a 10$ i n c r e a s e i n C 0 o has been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a 23 3°C r i s e i n g l o b a l mean temperature ( B r o e c k e r , 1 9 7 5 ) . A t t h i s r a t e the g l o b a l mean temperature i s a n t i c i p a t e d t o r i s e by 2.4°C by the end o f the c e n t u r y . T h i s t h e o r y has been c r i t i c i s e d by many. W i l l e t ( 1 9 7 5 ) , by r e f e r e n c e t o the p i o n e e r i n g work on the 00^ and wa t e r vapour a b s o r p t i o n c o n c l u d e s t h a t " e i t h e r d o u b l i n g o r h a l v i n g t h e p r e s e n t amount of c a r b o n d i o x i d e c o u l d a l t e r but l i t t l e the t o t a l amount o f r a d i a t i o n a c t u a l l y absorbed by t h e atmosphere and t h e r e f o r e s e e m i n g l y c o u l d n o t a p p r e c i a b l y change the average t e m p e r a t u r e o f the e a r t h o r be a t a l l e f f e c t i v e i n the p r o d u c t i o n o f marked c l i m a t i c changes". B r o e c k e r ( 1 9 7 5 ) has suggested the warming e f f e c t has been su p p r e s s e d by a n a t u r a l c o o l i n g t r e n d observed i n the Gre e n l a n d i c e c o r e and t h a t t h e warming t r e n d w i l l s t a r t i n t h e 1980s. However, i t does n ot appear as i f the v a r i a n c e of the observed v a l u e s around t h e mean o f the n a t u r a l c o o l i n g t r e n d i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from the v a r i a n c e around the mean o f t h e combined c o o l i n g and warming t r e n d , hence the h y p o t h e s i s cannot be c o n f i r m e d . W i l l e t e x p e c t s t h a t CO^ has c o n t r i b u t e d much l e s s t h a n 5 $ of the r e c e n t changes i n g l o b a l mean temperature and Lamb (1972) s t a t e s t h a t i n v i e w o f r e c e n t observed c o o l i n g t r e n d s o t h e r agents must have had a more p o w e r f u l e f f e c t . 24 The Cooling; Hypothesis T h i s h y pothesis suggests a g r a d u a l c o o l i n g of the g l o b a l mean temperature as a r e s u l t of i n c r e a s i n g a man-induced p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n . P a r t i c u l a t e s , by v i r t u e of t h e i r r e f l e c t i v i t y and b a c k s c a t t e r w i l l reduce s o l a r r a d i a t i o n . H i s t o r i c a l l y the sources of p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n were f i r e s , d e s e r t dust and v o l c a n i c a c t i v i t y . Major v o l c a n i c e r u p t i o n s such as Tambora (1815), Krakatoa (1883) and Agung (1963) are a l l e g e d l y r e f l e c t e d i n c o o l i n g i n subsequent years (Bryson, 1974). I t i s estimated t h a t f i n e ash p a r t i c u l a t e s remain i n the atmosphere f o r 2-12 years (Lamb, 1972). T h i s c r e a t e s u n c e r t a i n t y i n a s s e s s i n g the atmospheric p a r t i c u l a t e l o a d i n g at any one time, but ai d e d by sample s t a t i o n s i n remote l o c a t i o n s (Hawaii, Greenland) and analyses of i n d u s t r i a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l p a r t i c u l a t e g e n e r a t i o n , s c i e n t i s t s have concluded t h a t s i n c e 1940, man as w e l l as volcanoes has been capable of a f f e c t i n g the c l i m a t e . The man induced p a r t i c u l a t e l o a d i n g i s estimated to be between 8 to 24 x 10^ metric tons, an amount comparable to moderate v o l c a n i c a c t i v i t y . Increases i n the order of 2 x 10^ metric tons are assessed to be capable of r e d u c i n g the g l o b a l mean temperature by 0.4°C (Bryson, 1974). P r o j e c t i o n s of the maximum thermal c o o l i n g e f f e c t s and the CO^ warming t r e n d show the two would c a n c e l each other out ( M i t c h e l l , 1972). F i g u r e -3 shows the observed v a l u e s of g l o b a l mean temperature and the warming 25 Figure B—Trends of global mean temperature, 1860-2000 A D . Upper smooth curve represents warming contribution by CO* growth in tho atmosphere. Lower smooth curve represents probable maximum cooling contribution by particle increases. Broken curve is the observed temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere, equivalent to the curve in Figure 1-A after adjustment to remove estimated Inhomogeneity associated with local urban g'osvlh effects. After Mitchell (1972). Pigure 3: Warming or Cooling? Prom: Report of the A d Hoc Panel on the Present I n t e r g l a c i a l , 1974. 26 and c o o l i n g e f f e c t s . A c r i t i c a l assumption i n the c o o l i n g h ypothesis i s that p a r t i c l e r e f l e c t i o n predominates over p a r t i c l e a b s o r p t i o n . T h i s may be true f o r f i n e v o l c a n i c ashes which s e t t l e a t s t r a t o s p h e r i c l e v e l s , but i t has been argued the e f f e c t s , of the c o a r s e r dust at t r o p o s p h e r i c l e v e l s are opposite ( W i l l e t , 1975). In view of t h i s u n c e r t a i n t y M i t c h e l l (1972) concludes that warming i s l i k e l y to predominate at l e a s t u n t i l f o s s i l f u e l s are n e a r i n g exhaustion. W i l l e t i s more s k e p t i c a l about both t r e n d s . I f the e f f e c t of human p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n can e i t h e r be n e g ative or p o s i t i v e , on the.grounds t h a t the s i z e , d i s t r i b u t i o n and r a d i a t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are d i f f e r e n t from v o l c a n i c ash, and a b s o r p t i o n a n a l y s i s suggests that the warming e f f e c t of CO^ i s c o n s i d e r e d n e g l i b l e , then the n e c e s s i t y of any b a l a n c i n g of c o o l i n g and warming trends i n e x p l a i n i n g r e c e n t f l u c t u a t i o n s disappears completely. Furthermore the f a c t t h a t both the c o o l i n g and warming peaks' occur 25-30 years e a r l i e r i n the h i g h l a t i t u d e s than they do i n s u b t r o p i c a l l a t i t u d e s i s unexplained by these two causes. Hence, W i l l e t argues, the s u b s t a n t i a l f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the g l o b a l mean temperature are more l i k e l y e x p l a i n e d by f a c t o r s which r e p e a t e d l y have caused s i m i l a r f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the past, namely s o l a r f l u c t u a t i o n s . 27 The S o l a r C l i m a t i c H y p o t h e s i s T h i s h y p o t h e s i s s u g g e s t s t h a t c l i m a t i c f l u c t u a t i o n s appear t o be r e l a t e d t o c y c l i c a l sunspot a c t i v i t y . A l t h o u g h s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n s e x i s t between l a t i t u d i n a l c i r c u l a t i o n , t e m p e r a t u r e and p r e c i p i t a t i o n , o n l y h i n t s of p h y s i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n s a r e o f f e r e d . S i x s o l a r a c t i v i t y c y c l e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d : the 11 y e a r , the double s u n s p o t , the l o n g e r s e c u l a r 80-90 y e a r and the l o n g e r 100,000, 42,000 and 23,000 y e a r c y c l e s . The f i r s t t h r e e c y c l e s a r e used t o p r e d i c t c l i m a t i c f l u c t u a t i o n s , w h i l e the l a s t t h r e e a r e used t o p r o j e c t c l i m a t i c changes. The l a t t e r a r e on the time s c a l e of t e n s of thousands of y e a r s and are r e g a r d e d i r r e l e v a n t f o r p l a n n i n g p u r p o s e s . The 11 y e a r c y c l e c o r r e l a t e s t o e q u a t o r i a l t emperature o n l y and i s not judged s i g n i f i c a n t o t h e r t h a n i n r e i n f o r c i n g the extremes of the double sunspot c y c l e . The l o n g s e c u l a r c y c l e a l t e r n a t e s between an 80 and 100 y e a r phase. W i t h i n t h e s e phases the d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s and r a t e s o f sunspot a c t i v i t y a r e r e l a t e d t o a v e r y d e t a i l e d p i c t u r e of c l i m a t i c f l u c t u a t i o n , d e s c r i b i n g d e c a d a l t e m p e r a t u r e , c i r c u l a t i o n and p r e c i p i t a t i o n p a t t e r n s f o r d i f f e r e n t l a t i t u d e s . The b a s i c c l i m a t i c e x p r e s s i o n of the double sunspot c y c l e i s the sharp c o n t r a s t s i n g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s i n the w i n t e r seasons a t h i g h a l t i t u d e s . Not o n l y does W i l l e t suggest t h a t b e h a v i o u r o f the c l i m a t e c o r r e s p o n d s v e r y c l o s e l y t o sunspot c y c l e s i n the l a s t c e n t u r y , but throughout the 1950's he 28 p u b l i s h e d a number o f f o r e c a s t s b a s e d on h i s model, w h i c h have s u b s e q u e n t l y been c o r r o b o r a t e d by e x p e r i e n c e . The p h y s i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n s a r e s o u g h t i n changes i n t h e c h a r g e d p a r t i c l e e m a n a t i o n s o r s o l a r w i n d s . T h e s e a r e b e l i e v e d t o p r o v i d e a c l u e t o t h e s h a r p c o n t r a s t s i n s t r o n g z o n a l c i r c u l a t i o n and c e l l u l a r b l o c k i n g phenomena i n n o r t h e r n l a t i t u d e s . A l a c k o f r e s e a r c h i s blamed f o r t h e p o o r s t a t e o f knowledge ( W i l l e t , 1975 )• G l o b a l P r e d i c t i o n s B a s e d on t h e  S o l a r C l i m a t i c H y p o t h e s i s The t h r e e h y p o t h e s e s l e a d t o v a r i o u s s c e n a r i o s f o r change, b u t o n l y t h e s o l a r c l i m a t i c h y p o t h e s i s has been documented i n d e c a d a l and z o n a l d e t a i l . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s u n d o u b t e d l y t h e r i c h n e s s o f t h e a n a l y s i s , w h i c h has s o u g h t t o e x p l a i n t h r e e c l i m a t i c v a r i a b l e s a t d i f f e r e n t l a t i t u d e s . The o t h e r two h y p o t h e s e s were m e r e l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e . A t a b r o a d l e v e l , g l o b a l c o o l i n g w o u l d l e a d t o s m a l l e r d i f f e r e n t i a l s between p o l e and e q u a t o r r e s u l t i n g i n a more v a r i a b l e c l i m a t e . Warming on t h e o t h e r hand would l e a d t o l o n g e r s t a b l e p e r i o d s . As t o W i l l e t ' s p r e d i c t i o n s t h e r e seems l i t t l e s c o p e f o r i m p r o v i n g h i s c o n c i s e n e s s , hence t h e s c e n a r i o f o r t h e p e r i o d up t o 2030 i s q u o t e d i n f u l l : " P r e d i c t i o n s f o r the n e x t double s e c u l a r c y c l e 180 y e a r s , 1975-2155 The f o l l o w i n g p r e d i c t i o n s are based on the a s s u m p t i o n t h a t the n e x t two s e c u l a r c y c l e s , 80 and 100 y e a r s r e s p e c t i v e l y , w i l l f o l l o w the s o l a r c h r o n o l o g y and r e l a t e d c l i m a t i c p a t t e r n of the l a s t two as o u t l i n e d above. The double sunspot c y c l e i s c o n s i d e r e d o n l y i n t h e d e t a i l o f the n e x t 30 y e a r s , and fudged somewhat, owing t o the u n c e r t a i n t y as t o i t s imminent r e v e r s a l of phase, i t s tendency t o be l e s s dominant d u r i n g the f i r s t r e l a t i v e l y q u i e t h a l f of the l o n g s e c u l a r c y c l e , and i g n o r a n c e as t o i t s m a n i f e s t a t i o n s i n the 1795-1875 p e r i o d of the l a s t 80 y e a r c y c l e , w h i c h s h o u l d be analogous t o the n e x t 80 y e a r s . W i t h t h e s e r e s e r v a t i o n s , the f o l l o w i n g p r e d i c t i o n s are v e n t u r e d : (1) The n e x t 25 y e a r s (a) A renewed f a l l o f temperature i n a l l l a t i t u d e s t o s i g n i f i c a n t l y l o w e r l e v e l s t h a n those reached i n the mid-60's. Whether t h i s f a l l s t a r t s i m m e d i a t e l y and the l o w e s t l e v e l s a r e reached i n the 80's, or s t a r t s i n the 80's and l o w e s t l e v e l s ar e r e a c h e d i n the 9 0 1 s depends on whether the double sunspot c y c l e r e v e r s e s phase. (b) No.major p r o l o n g e d drought i n l o w e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s e x c e p t p o s s i b l y a l o n g t h e sub-t r o p i c a l margin ( e . g . M e x i c a n b o r d e r s t a t e s o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s ) . Whether such an o c c u r r e n c e i s c e n t e r e d i n the f i r s t or second decade ahead depends on whether t h e d o u b l e sunspot c y c l e r e v e r s e s phase. I f n o t , the 1975-85 p r e d i c t i o n s t a n d s . (c) I n h i g h e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s , a p r e d o m i n a n t l y dr y p e r i o d d u r i n g the n e x t two decades, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n Canada and n o r t h e r n Europe, w i t h a s e v e r e drought decade p o s s i b l y a c r o s s the Canadian p l a i n s . (d) I n s u b t r o p i c a l l a t i t u d e s , a l s o a p r e d o m i n a n t l y d r y p e r i o d d u r i n g the n e x t two decades, w i t h a n o t h e r decade of s e v e r e drought l i k e l y i n s o u t h e r n A s i a n and s u b t r o p i c a l A f r i c a , but d e c a d a l t i m i n g i s u n c e r t a i n . 30 (2) The p e r i o d 2000-2030 A.D. (a) An a b r u p t r e t u r n t o markedly warmer weather i n m i d d l e and h i g h e r l a t i t u d e s d u r i n g the f i r s t decade of the n e x t c e n t u r y , f o l l o w e d r a t h e r q u i c k l y by a r e t u r n o f t e m p e r a t u r e s t o the low l e v e l s p r e d i c t e d f o r the n e x t two decades. The warmth of the 2000-2010 decade w i l l n o t a pproach t h a t of the 1931-60 p e r i o d i n degree. (b) The warm decade w i l l tend t o be w e t t e r i n h i g h e r m i d d l e and i n s u b t r o p i c a l l a t i t u d e s , t e r m i n a t i n g the p r o s p e c t i v e drought c o n d i t i o n s i n t hose l a t i t u d e s . I t w i l l be d r i e r i n l o w e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s , but s t r e s s c o n d i t i o n s of drought and c o a s t a l s'torminess w i l l n o t a pproach those of the 1931-60 p e r i o d . (c) The r e t u r n t o c o o l e r c o n d i t i o n s (low l a t i t u d e z o n a l c i r c u l a t i o n ) d u r i n g the 2010-30 decades s h o u l d w i t n e s s a l s o a r e t u r n t o r e l a t i v e wetness i n l o w e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s and r e l a t i v e d r y n e s s i n h i g h e r m i d d l e and s u b t r o p i c a l l a t i t u d e s . " ( W i l l e t , 1975) P o r the p e r i o d beyond 2030 he p r e d i c t s t h a t the warm p e r i o d of 1931-60 w i l l be r e p e a t e d between 2110-2140 and a l i t t l e i c e age i s p r e d i c t e d f o r 2200-2550. A f u l l s c a l e i c e age i s u n l i k e l y f o r the n e x t 10,000 y e a r s , but i s more tha n l i k e l y w i t h i n t h e n e x t 30,000. G o n e l u s i o n s T h i s c h a p t e r has r e v i e w e d the b a s i c components of the weather and c l i m a t i c systems. The v a r i a b i l i t y o f the c l i m a t e on a l l time s c a l e s was e s t a b l i s h e d and the p r e s e n t c l i m a t e appears u n u s u a l l y warm. The t h r e e hypotheses of c l i m a t i c change a r e a l l based on f a c t o r s e x t e r n a l t o t h e c l i m a t i c system: p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n ( c o o l i n g ) , CO^ p o l l u t i o n (warming) and s o l a r a c t i v i t y ( v a r i a b i l i t y ) . The i n t e r n a l f eedback systems do n o t p e r f o r m a c a u s a l r o l e i n c l i m a t i c change and f l u c t u a t i o n and appear to be h o m e o s t a t i c i n n a t u r e . C o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y e x i s t s i n the p h y s i c s of c o o l i n g and warming caused by p a r t i c l e s and CC^ r e s p e c t i v e l y . U n l e s s a s i g n i f i c a n t breakdown o f the ozone l a y e r o c c u r s c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s more l i k e l y t h a n n ot be governed by s o l a r a c t i v i t y . I f as t h i s c h a p t e r has suggested a more v a r i a b l e c l i m a t e i s l i k e l y t o govern the world, t h e n one must c o n c l u d e t h a t t e s t i n g t h e Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n H y d r o e l e c t r i c system f o r c l i m a t i c regimes o t h e r t h a n the normal p e r i o d 1928-68, i s ' a n e c e s s i t y t o a v o i d s u r p r i s e s i n sudden exc e s s e s and s h o r t a g e s of f l o w i n the Columbia R i v e r . The s e l e c t i o n o f h i s t o r i c , c l i m a t i c regimes t o be s i m u l a t e d s h o u l d be g u i d e d , but not e x c l u s i v e l y d e t e r m i n e d by the g l o b a l p r e d i c t i o n s . 32 C h a p t e r T h r e e TOWARDS A PROCESS POR PLANNING POR CLIMATIC V A R I A B I L I T Y The f i v e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s c h a p t e r a r e t.o d i s c u s s : 1. The c h a r a c t e r i s a t i o n o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s p r e s e n t e d b y c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . 2 . The n e e d f o r i n t e g r a t i n g , c l i m a t i c a n a l y s i s i n d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s . 3. The r e v i e w o f e m e r g i n g a p p r o a c h e s o f p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y . . 4. An o u t l i n e o f a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . 5. The c u r r e n t l i m i t a t i o n s t o t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f t h i s p r o c e s s . The p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r h a s p r e s e n t e d a c o n d e n s e d v e r s i o n o f some o f t h e t h e o r i e s a b o u t c l i m a t i c c h a n g e a nd t h e g a p s i n o u r k n o w l e d g e t h a t r e q u i r e n a r r o w i n g i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a human r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c c h a n g e . The n e e d f o r s u c h a r e s p o n s e l i e s i n t h e i n a d v e r t e n t f i n e t u n i n g o f l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s t o a c l i m a t i c r e g i m e , t h a t now a p p e a r s t o be h i g h l y u n u s u a l i n b o t h s h o r t and l o n g t e r m t i m e p e r s p e c t i v e s ( C h a p t e r O n e ) . 33 C l i m a t i c U n c e r t a i n t i e s The c l i m a t i c system presents a complex set of u n c e r t a i n t i e s on at l e a s t two time s c a l e s . C l i m a t i c change r e f e r r i n g to f l u c t u a t i o n s on the s c a l e of c e n t u r i e s and c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y r e f e r r i n g to decadal o s c i l l a t i o n s . I f one b e l i e v e s i n the c y c l i c a l nature of the c l i m a t e i t may be argued t h a t a number of time s c a l e s e x i s t from the 100,000 year c y c l e r i g h t down to the 11 year one. Por t h i s study we adopt the concept that c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s superimposed on l o n g e r term trends of c l i m a t i c change as i l l u s t r a t e d below. c l i m a t i c change — c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y The c l i m a t i c system has l a r g e l y been monitored i n terms of two of i t s m a n i f e s t a t i o n s , temperature and p r e c i p i t a t i o n . Both of these v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r p o s s i b l e combinations and sequences of occurrence are s i g n i f i c a n t i n the p l a n n i n g a n a l y s i s and add to the complexity of the u n c e r t a i n t i e s . The purpose of the p l a n n i n g process i s to a n t i c i p a t e and, i f p o s s i b l e , mould f u t u r e c o n d i t i o n s , hence there i s an i n t e r e s t i n the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of the f u t u r e c l i m a t e . P r e d i c t a b i l i t y d e c l i n e s w i t h i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s of r e s o l u t i o n and l e n g t h of time h o r i z o n at which the system i s viewed. There f o r e u n c e r t a i n t y i n c r e a s e s with an i n c r e a s i n g r e s o l u t i o n l e v e l and d i s t a n c e of time h o r i z o n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y most p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s are d i r e c t e d at the h i g h e r l e v e l s of r e s o l u t i o n , where p r e d i c t i o n becomes more d i f f i c u l t i f not i m p o s s i b l e . C l i m a t o l o g i s t s tend to support the view that p r e d i c t i o n i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e to p l a n n i n g (Hare, 1975), yet p r e d i c t a b i l i t y i s a long way o f f f o r most (Mason, 1976), although some have made attempts at a g l o b a l - z o n a l l e v e l ( W i l l e t , 1975). C u r r e n t l y the p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y seems l i m i t e d and f o r our study area an i n d i c a t i v e range of c l i m a t i c h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y would seem more f e a s i b l e to a s c e r t a i n . However, as u n c e r t a i n t y i s f u r t h e r reduced, p r e d i c t i o n s might g r a d u a l l y be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r i n d i c a t i o n s and the p l a n n i n g response w i l l evolve a c c o r d i n g l y . The premise of our p l a n n i n g approach i s to i d e n t i f y and to manage u n c e r t a i n t y p u r p o s e f u l l y r a t h e r than to ignore i t . Por t h i s reason the u n c e r t a i n t i e s presented by c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y and change must be d e f i n e d ; f o u r c l a s s e s each r e q u i r i n g a d i f f e r e n t commitment f o r i t s r e s o l u t i o n s are i d e n t i f i e d : U n c e r t a i n t y of C l i m a t i c System S t r u c t u r e U n c e r t a i n t y of C l i m a t i c V a r i a n c e U n c e r t a i n t y of Impacts U n c e r t a i n t y of R i s k V a l u a t i o n 35 U n c e r t a i n t y o f C l i m a t i c S y s t e m S t r u c t u r e . T h i s r e f e r s t o gaps i n t h e knowledge a b o u t t h e b a s i c o p e r a t i o n o f t h e a t m o s p h e r i c s y s t e m , t h e c a u s e s o f c l i m a t i c change and t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f human a c t i v i t y on t h e a t m o s p h e r e . The b a s i c commitment f o r r e s o l u t i o n i s f u n d a m e n t a l m e t e o r o l o g i c a l r e s e a r c h . U n c e r t a i n t y o f V a r i a n c e . T h i s r e f e r s t o u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e d u r a t i o n , m a g n i t u d e , t i m i n g and l o c a t i o n o f d e v i a t i o n s f r o m a r b i t r a r i l y e s t a b l i s h e d c l i m a t i c means and t h e r a t e s and s e q u e n c e s o f s u c h c h a n g e s . U n c e r t a i n t y c a n be r e d u c e d t h r o u g h an a n a l y s i s o f h i s t o r i c a l 'proxy', r e c o r d s s u c h as t r e e - r i n g w i d t h and d e n s i t y and g l a c i a l and p o l l e n l a y e r i n g . T h i s n a r r o w s t h e bounds o f v a r i a b i l i t y e ven i n one l o c a t i o n , p r o v i d e d one assumes t h a t t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m i s n o t d e v e l o p i n g o n t o a n e n t i r e l y new t a n g e n t . U n c e r t a i n t y o f Impacts." C l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y has a p e r v a s i v e i n f l u e n c e on human l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s . Some o f t h e s e i m p a c t s a r e d i r e c t ( q u a n t i t y o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t e d ) w h i l e o t h e r s a r e i n d i r e c t (power s h o r t a g e s , l a y o f f s ) . T h e r e i s u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e n a t u r e , t i m e l a g s and m a g n i t u d e o f i m p a c t s on l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s . How much power w i l l be l o s t a s a r e s u l t o f a 15$ d r o p i n s t r e a m f l o w ? How l o n g i s a r e s e r v o i r ' s draw down p e r i o d u n d e r t h i s s t r e a m f l o w s c e n a r i o ? T h i s t y p e o f u n c e r t a i n t y c a n be r e d u c e d by s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s o f t h e i m p a c t e d s y s t e m . 36 U n c e r t a i n t y o f R i s k V a l u a t i o n . T h i s r e f e r s t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t y t h a t e x i s t s r e g a r d i n g t h e p r i c e s o c i e t y i s w i l l i n g t o p a y f o r i n c r e a s e d l o n g t e r m s t a b i l i t y . P o r i n s t a n c e , t h e r e may be a t r a d e o f f between d e c r e a s e d s h o r t t e r m l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m p r o d u c t i v i t y and i n c r e a s e d l o n g t e r m s e c u r i t y a g a i n s t c r i t i c a l f a i l u r e . U n c e r t a i n t y c a n be r e d u c e d by f o s t e r i n g p u b l i c and p o l i t i c a l d e b a t e b a s e d on ' c l i m a t i c i m p a c t s t a t e -ments' and a l t e r n a t i v e m i t i g a t i v e a c t i o n p r o p o s a l s . I n t e g r a t i o n o f C l i m a t i c P l a n n i n g i n D e c i s i o n M a k i n g P r o c e s s e s P o r c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g t o be e f f e c t i v e i t has t o be i n t e g r a t e d i n t h e e x i s t i n g d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s t h a t a f f e c t t h e o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t o f w a t e r s u p p l y , e n e r g y d i s t r i b u t i o n , a g r i c u l t u r a l and h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i n g s y s t e m s . I n power g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g , f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e r e a r e many f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d and p r e s e n t l y e n g i n e e r i n g f e a s i b i l i t y , f i n a n c i n g , e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t a n a l y s i s and demand f o r e c a s t i n g a r e a l l i n t e g r a t e d i n a d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s . C l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g s h o u l d p r o v i d e r e l e v a n t e v a l u a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t p r e d e t e r m i n e d a l t e r n a t i v e p r o p o s a l s , a s w e l l a s g e n e r a t i n g new d e c i s i o n o p t i o n s w h i c h a i m t o m i t i g a t e a d v e r s e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s and m a x i m i s e b e n e f i t s f r o m more f a v o u r a b l e r e g i m e s . I n s t i t u t i o n a l r i g i d i t y w i l l p r o b a b l y l i m i t i n i t i a l e f f o r t s a t c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g t o a p u r e l y 3 7 e v a l u a t i v e i n p u t , b u t as i t becomes more e s t a b l i s h e d i t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t s u b s t a n t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e s g e n e r a t e d i n t h e c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s w i l l r e c e i v e f u l l c o n s i d e r a t i o n . E m e r g i n g A p p r o a c h e s t o P l a n n i n g U n d e r U n c e r t a i n t y The c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s must be c a p a b l e t o i d e n t i f y , e x p l o r e and manage u n c e r t a i n t y , as w e l l as t o g e n e r a t e 'new' a l t e r n a t i v e s , n o t p r e v i o u s l y i d e n t i f i e d i n d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s c o n c e r n i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n and d e v e l o p m e n t o f c l i m a t i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e s y s t e m s . U n t i l v e r y r e c e n t l y p l a n n i n g t h e o r y and p r a c t i c e have f a i l e d t o a c k n o w l e d g e t h e e x i s t e n c e o f u n c e r t a i n t y . More c r i t i c a l a n a l y s i s o f p l a n n i n g f a i l u r e s , t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t o u r b a n and r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g and t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g o r i e n t a t i o n o f some p l a n n i n g t h e o r y have l e d t o u n c e r t a i n t y b e i n g r e c o g n i s e d as a v a r i a b l e i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . The a w a r e n e s s o f t h e c o m p l e x i t y and i n t e r c o n n e c t e d -n e s s o f s y s t e m components and i n t e r v e n t i o n i s t d e c i s i o n s have c r e a t e d c o n d i t i o n s where a g r e a t many d e c i s i o n s a r e made i n r e c o g n i t i o n o f i m p e r f e c t k n o w l e d g e . S e v e r a l a p p r o a c h e s t o p l a n n i n g u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y have emerged i n t h e l a s t d e c a d e and t h i s r e v i e w w i l l c o n c e n t r a t e on f o u r m e t h o d o l o g i e s d e v e l o p e d i n d i v e r s e a c a d e m i c and b u s i n e s s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n e n v i r o n m e n t s . 38 The f i r s t approach i s an example of s t a t i s t i c a l d e c i s i o n theory which d i s c u s s e s methods of d e a l i n g w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y f a c e d by a super i n t e l l i g e n t r a t i o n a l decision-maker w i t h an i n f i n i t e c a p a b i l i t y to evaluate q u a n t i t a t i v e l y the consequences and u t i l i t i e s of h i s a c t s ( R a i f f a , 1968). The second approach deal s w i t h managing the unknown i n environmental impact assessment and was developed by the I n s t i t u t e of Animal Resource E c o l o g y at UBC (Yorque, 1976). The t h i r d approach d i s c u s s e s a g e n e r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e method r e f e r r e d to as 'DOSRAP', which i s short f o r d e l i b e r a t i v e , ongoing, staged, r e c u r s i v e , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e process which aims to reduce the cost of u n c e r t a i n t y (Mack, 1971). The f o u r t h methodology i s r e f e r r e d to as S t r a t e g i c Choice and was developed by the I n s t i t u t e of O p e r a t i o n a l Research, i n Coventry England. I t i s very much an o p e r a t i o n a l i s e d form of 'DOSRAP' (Pr i e n d & Jessop, 1971). Two g e n e r a l p o i n t s about p l a n n i n g on u n c e r t a i n t y should be made. P i r s t l y , p l a n n i n g on u n c e r t a i n t y i s not the e x c l u s i v e domain of p r o f e s s i o n a l decision-makers, common sayings such as " I ' l l c r o s s t h a t bridge when I get to i t " or "play i t by ear" r e f l e c t the u n i v e r s a l i t y of the concept (Mack, 1971). Secondly, t r a d i t i o n a l l y , u n c e r t a i n t y i n environmental management has been r e s o l v e d by a t r i a l and e r r o r approach under the paradigm of an i n f i n i t e l y f o r g i v i n g nature. Under t h i s paradigm the system would always r e c o v e r and p r o v i d e u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n on wh i c h f u r t h e r a c t i o n i s based. The s c a l e and p e r v a s i v e n e s s of some p r o j e c t s i s now such t h a t the environment can no l o n g e r be probed i n t h i s f a s h i o n , and i t has been suggested t h a t t h e r e f o r e s o c i e t y o p e r a t e s on the b a s i s of h y p o t h e t i c a l i t y ( H a e f e l e , 1974)• I n n u c l e a r power development, f o r i n s t a n c e , the s a f e t y systems and the impacts of a r e a c t o r meltdown cannot be r e a l i s t i c a l l y t e s t e d and r e s i d u a l u n c e r t a i n t y r e m a i n s . C l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y p r e s e n t s the o p p o s i t e case where e n v i r o n m e n t a l change has enormous impacts on t h e human l i f e s u p p o r t systems. The magnitude and d u r a t i o n of p a s t d i s t u r b a n c e s can be r o u g h l y a s s e s s e d , but the f u t u r e r e c u r -r e n c e s of s i m i l a r e v e nts are as y e t u n p r e d i c t a b l e and hence r e s i d u a l u n c e r t a i n t y w i l l p e r s i s t . A P r o b a b i l i t y Approach t o U n c e r t a i n t y The d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t h e o r y s e t f o r t h by H a r o l d R a i f f a i s a s t a t i s t i c a l a p proach t o d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g under u n c e r t a i n t y ( R a i f f a , 1968). I t i s a p o s i t i v e t h e o r y , r a t i o n a l i s i n g the b e h a v i o u r of a super i n t e l l i g e n t d e c i s i o n -maker who i s f a c e d w i t h a c h o i c e among p r e d e l i n e a t e d a l t e r n a t i v e s . The d e c i s i o n - m a k e r has the c a p a c i t y t o determine the u t i l i t y of c o n s e q u e n c i e s and t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f events o c c u r r i n g . A l l u n c e r t a i n t y i s t h e r e f o r e t r a n s l a t e t o r i s k , the l a t t e r b e i n g d e f i n e d as the s i t u a t i o n where a set of known consequences w i l l r e s u l t from a probable event occurring. R a i f f a suggests the following model of the decision-making process: 1. Describe the anatomy of a problem i n a decision-flow diagram or tree. 2. Evaluate the consequences i n u t i l i t y numbers. 3 . Assign p r o b a b i l i t i e s to branches of the. chance forks. 4 . Determine optimal strategy by averaging out and fol d i n g back. The decision-flow diagram shows points of decision, points of chance, and actions and outcomes f o r the various courses of action open to a decision-maker. The consequences are evaluated i n terms of do l l a r s or u t i l e s , a hypothetical unit expressing the decision-makers' r e l a t i v e preference, applicable i n areas where uncertainty defies accurate monetary evaluation. At every chance fork, locations where the consequences of the decision-makers' actions are determined by chance, p r o b a b i l i t i e s are assigned. In some of the more complicated decision trees, R a i f f a assumes the existence of teams of experts to supply the decision-maker with the p r o b a b i l i t i e s . The f i n a l stage involves the summation of p r o b a b i l i t i e s along the paths of the tree and then se l e c t i n g the path that y i e l d s the highest rewards f o r the decision-maker. The approach has only a very limited a p p l i c a t ion to the problems of cl i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y and i t s consequences on the 41 C o l u m b i a R i v e r f l o w . U n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m i s t o o l i m i t e d t o even a p p l y j u d g e m e n t a l p r o b a b i l i t y t o t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f c e r t a i n e v e n t s , and more i m p o r t a n t l y , a l t e r n a t i v e c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n a r e more l i k e l y t o e v o l v e d u r i n g t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , r a t h e r t h a n b e i n g a p r e r e q u i s i t e o f t h e e v a l u a t i v e p r o c e s s . S t a t i s t i c a l d e c i s i o n -m a king may however be v e r y u s e f u l i n t h o s e p a r t s o f t h e p r o c e s s where more c o m p l e t e knowledge o f t h e s y s t e m e n a b l e s t h e a n a l y s t t o a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e c o n s e q u e n c e s and p r o b a b i l i t i e s . The h y d r o e l e c t r i c s u b s y s t e m may be s u c h a n a r e a . U n c e r t a i n t y and E n v i r o n m e n t a l Impact U n c e r t a i n t y has r e c e n t l y g a i n e d p r o m i n e n c e i n r e s e a r c h i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t ( Y o r q u e , 1976). The c e n t r a l t h e s i s i s t h a t s y s t e m s have m u l t i p l e r e g i o n s o f s t a b i l i t y . W i t h i n t h e s t a b i l i t y b o u n d a r i e s t h e s y s t e m c a n a b s o r b e x t e r n a l d i s t u r b a n c e s and r e t u r n t o i t s p r e v i o u s e q u i l i b r i u m . However, when a s y s t e m ' s s t a t e i s c l o s e t o a s t a b i l i t y b o u n d a r y a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l e x t e r n a l p e r t u r b a t i o n c a n f o r c e t h e s y s t e m t o ' f l i p ' f r o m one e q u i l i b r i u m t o a n o t h e r . Erom t h i s t h e t w i n c o n c e p t s o f s y s t e m r e s i l i e n c e and p o l i c y r o b u s t n e s s a r e d e v e l o p e d . The f o r m e r i s a measure o f s y s t e m s t a b i l i t y u n d e r v a r i o u s p o l i c i e s , w h i l e t h e l a t t e r ~ i s a measure o f p o l i c y e f f e c t i v e n e s s u n d e r v a r i o u s s t a t e s o f 42 the system. I n e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact a n a l y s i s , the team i d e n t i f i e s the f o l l o w i n g s o u r c e s of u n c e r t a i n t y : " 1 . E x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on systems under c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s i n s u f f i c i e n t l y r e s e a r c h e d . 2. C e r t a i n a s p e c t s a re u n p r e d i c t a b l e i n p r i n c i p l e , i . e . e n v i r o n m e n t a l change beyond the observed s t a t e s of system l e v e l s of d e t a i l t h a t d e f y p r e d i c t i o n system w i t h a l a r g e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n cannot be p r e d i c t e d a c c u r a t e l y (e.g. m e t e o r o l o g i c a l systems) 3. A n a l y s i s i s o f t e n e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y b i a s e d , c o m p l e t e l y i g n o r i n g s o c i e t a l i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e b i o l o g i c a l system. 4- E n v i r o n m e n t a l a n a l y s t s a r e o f t e n r e q u i r e d t o make v a l u e judgements, w h i c h a r e more th a n l i k e l y t o be m o d i f i e d by c h a n g i n g s o c i a l p e r c e p t i o n over a p r o j e c t time of 50 y e a r s or more. " Three means of f a c i n g u n c e r t a i n t y a re suggested: 1. L o o k i n g Outward 2. Q u a l i t a t i v e D e s c r i p t i o n of System 3. A d a p t i v e Management L o o k i n g outward can be a c h i e v e d by i n s t i t u t i n g m u l t i -d i s c i p l i n a r y teams t h a t i t e r a t i v e l y q u e s t i o n each o t h e r about the r e l a t i o n s h i p s among the v a r i o u s subsystems, or the s i g n i f i c a n t p r o c e s s e s w i t h i n t h e s e . The q u a l i t a t i v e d e s c r i p t i o n o f the system aims 4 3 s p e c i f i c a l l y a t t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t r i g g e r c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h c a u s e s y s t e m s t o e v o l v e f r o m one e q u i l i b r i u m t o a n o t h e r . T r a d i t i o n a l e c o l o g y has f o c u s e d more on t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e a s p e c t s o f a l l v a r i a b l e s i n t h e s y s t e m , b u t i n t h e q u a l i t a t i v e method t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s c o m p r e s s e d i n t o a much s i m p l e r m o d e l . The a d a p t i v e management a p p r o a c h i s r e a l l y t h e e c o l o g i c a l e q u i v a l e n t o f t h e i n c r e m e n t a l i s t a p p r o a c h d e s c r i b e d by L i n d b l o m (1959) and i s a l s o r e f l e c t e d i n t h e commitment package o f t h e s t r a t e g i c c h o i c e a p p r o a c h . The i n i t i a l p h a s e s o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l management a r e d i r e c t e d t o g e n e r a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t e f f e c t s r e s u l t i n g f r o m s m a l l changes i n t h e s y s t e m . I t i s a d v o c a t e d t h a t s y s t e m s be d e l i b e r a t e l y p e r t u r b e d t o p u s h them beyond bounds o f s t a b i l i t y . The ' a d a p t i v e management a p p r o a c h s u g g e s t e d has a t e m p o r a l d i m e n s i o n o n l y ; i t i s however c o n c e i v a b l e t o t e s t a s y s t e m , o r s i m i l a r s y s t e m , by means o f s p a t i a l l y s e g r e g a t e d e x p e r i m e n t s . T h e s e i n c r e m e n t a l s t e p s c a n o n l y b e ' t a k e n s a f e l y i f t h e s t a b i l i t y b o u n d a r i e s a r e known, o t h e r w i s e t h e a d a p t i v e management a p p r o a c h i s p o t e n t i a l l y as d a n g e r o u s as t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s i n g l e s h o t e x p e r i m e n t . Many i d e a s g e n e r a t e d i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t a s s e s s -ment r e s e a r c h a r e a p p l i c a b l e i n c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g , as f a r as t h e y p r o v i d e i n s i g h t s i n s y s t e m b e h a v i o u r . The c l i m a t e i t s e l f has m u l t i p l e r e g i o n s o f s t a b i l i t y , i c e age -i n t e r g l a c i a l , summer-winter, low v a r i a b i l i t y - h i g h v a r i a b i l i t y , b u t t h e i m p a c t e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c and a g r i c u l t u r a l s y s t e m s d i s p l a y s i m i l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m , f o r i n s t a n c e , i s d e s i g n e d t o o p e r a t e w i t h i n one s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f mean a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w s . S t r e a m f l o w s e q u e n c e s e x c e e d i n g t h i s b o u n d a r y w i l l r e s u l t i n s i g n i f i c a n t c h a n g e s i n c o n s u m p t i o n p a t t e r n s , e i t h e r i n t h e f o r m o f c o n s e r v a t i o n o r s u b s t a n t i a l e x p o r t s a l e s t o o t h e r u t i l i t i e s , s e t t i n g a new p r o d u c t i o n - c o n s u m p t i o n e q u i l i b r i u m . The h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m c a n a l s o be v i e w e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o s y s t e m r e s i l i e n c e . How w e l l does i t a b s o r b c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y ? M i t i g a t i v e p o l i c i e s c a n be t e s t e d f o r r o b u s t n e s s . How e f f e c t i v e a r e p o l i c i e s t h a t a i m t o e x t e n d t h e p e r f o r m a n c e bounds u n d e r v a r i o u s c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s ? D e s c r i b i n g t h e s y s t e m i n a q u a l i t a t i v e manner and l o o k i n g o u tward a r e u s e f u l methods i n f a c i n g c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s . However, a d a p t i v e management i s n o t t r a n s f e r r a b l e t o c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g b e c a u s e , f i r s t l y , t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m i s n o t ( y e t ) s u b j e c t t o p u r p o s e f u l e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n by man. S e c o n d l y , a r e l a t i v e l y w e l l d e v e l o p e d d a t a b a s e o*f a man d e s i g n e d and c o n t r o l l e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m p e r m i t s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a s i m u l a t i o n m odel c a p a b l e o f g e n e r a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t s y s t e m p e r f o r m a n c e u n d e r v a r i o u s c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s w i t h o u t e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n . 45 DOSRAP Ru t h Mack's s t r a t e g y f o r d e a l i n g w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y i s c a l l e d DOSRAP, s h o r t f o r d e l i b e r a t i v e , ongoing, s t a g e d , r e c u r s i v e , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r o c e s s (Mack, 1971). The words ongoing and s t a g e d r e f l e c t c o n c e r n f o r t h e time d i m e n s i o n of u n c e r t a i n t y and r e c u r s i v e i s i n d i c a t i v e of the c y c l i c a l n a t u r e of t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . D e l i b e r a t i v e r e f e r s t o the pr e s e n c e of purpose, a v a l u e framework of p r e f e r e n c e s w i t h i n w h i c h many problems,, d e f i n i t i o n s and s o l u t i o n s can e v o l v e as a r e s u l t of i n t e r a c t i o n among p a r t i e s . T h i s methodology can employ a r i c h v a r i e t y of d e c i s i o n a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s a t v a r i o u s s t a g e s of the p r o c e s s . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s a pproach i s t o m i n i m i z e the c o s t of u n c e r t a i n t y i n terms of the n e t exp e c t e d u t i l i t y of p u r p o s i v e , d e l i b e r a t i v e c o n d u c t . The c o s t of u n c e r t a i n t y i s found i n t h r e e s o u r c e s . The f i r s t s o u r c e i s the d i s c o u n t r e l a t i v e t o o b t a i n i n g r e s u l t s f o r s u r e . An example of t h i s c o s t might be the d i f f e r e n c e betweai a s t a t i o n - t o - s t a t i o n c a l l and a p e r s o n - t o - p e r s o n c a l l . To be a b s o l u t e l y s u r e ( p r o b a b i l i t y 1.0) one p l a c e s a p e r s o n - t o - p e r s o n c a l l ' a t say $2.00, w h i l e a s t a t i o n - t o - s t a t i o n c o s t s o n l y $1.50 ( p r o b a b i l i t y 0.75). The chance o f h a v i n g the c o n v e r s a t i o n i s thus w o r t h t h r e e q u a r t e r s of h a v i n g i t f o r s u r e . I f t h e chances o f the p e r s o n b e i n g out are g r e a t e r t h a n t h r e e out of f o u r , one opts f o r the p e r s o n - t o - p e r s o n c a l l . The d i s c o u n t i s p a r t of the c o s t of u n c e r t a i n t y . The second source of the 46 c o s t o f u n c e r t a i n t y i s i n t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n t h e d e c i s i o n b e h a v i o u r w h i c h r e s u l t s f r o m s u p p r e s s i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y when f a c e d w i t h i t . T h i r d l y , u n c e r t a i n t y t e n d s t o e x a g g e r a t e t h e e x t e r n a l c o s t o f a d e v e l o p m e n t and t h e s e a r e t h e n o f t e n i g n o r e d i n p r i v a t e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g s i t u a t i o n s . T h e s e t h r e e s o u r c e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y t e n d t o l e a d t o a c o n s e r v a t i v e b i a s i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . The DOSRAP p r o c e s s i s shown i n F i g u r e 4-. A few p o i n t s o f e x p l a n a t i o n a r e w a r r a n t e d . F i r s t l y , t h e a p p r o a c h r e f l e c t s t h e c o n t i n u o u s i n t e r a c t i o n o f d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s w i t h t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l ( c h e c k i n g t h e bounds o f p a s t b e h a v i o u r ) and s o c i e t a l ( v a l u e s , c u s t o m s ) f r a m e w o r k s . The s h a d i n g o f t h e d i s k s r e f l e c t s t h e l e v e l o f agreement ( t h e d a r k e r / t h e • m o r e a g r e e m e n t ) w h i c h i n c r e a s e s as t h e p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s . The s i z e o f t h e d i s k i n d i c a t e s t h e r a n g e o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . A f t e r a n i n i t i a l w i d e n i n g t h e f o c u s i s g r a d u a l l y n a r r o w e d down. The 'DOSRAP' a p p r o a c h has some v a l u a b l e components t h a t s h o u l d be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y p l a n n i n g m o d e l . F i r s t l y , t h e c o s t o f u n c e r t a i n t y c a n be v e r y h i g h i n c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g . F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e c a s e s t u d y i n t h i s r e p o r t w i l l d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t f a i l u r e t o p l a n f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y c a n c o s t B. C. H y d r o up t o $84 m i l l i o n p e r annum i n power s h o r t f a l l s . S e c o n d l y , c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s p e r v a s i v e , u n p r e d i c t a b l e and c o n t i n u o u s , t h e r e f o r e an o n g o i n g and i n t e r a c t i v e p r o c e s s i n v o l v i n g t h e Problem recognition Specification of Decision Effectuation Correction alternatives proper Time • Diagram 11-1 Model for DOSRAP. F i g u r e 4: DOSRAP Prom: P l a n n i n g under U n c e r t a i n t y , 1971. managers o f d i f f e r e n t c l i m a t i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e s y s t e m s seems e s s e n t i a l . T h i s p r o c e s s w o u l d a i m t o i d e n t i f y and a d j u s t t h e bounds o f c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t y i n o r d e r t o make b e t t e r o p e r a t i o n a l and d e v e l o p m e n t a l d e c i s i o n s . U n c e r t a i n t y w o u l d be r e d u c e d i n a s t a g e d manner and p o l i c i e s n e e d t o be r e v i e w e d a s new i n f o r m a t i o n i s g e n e r a t e d . T h i r d l y , t h e 'd e c i s i o n - m a k e r ' s i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h h i s s o c i e t a l s y s t e m i s i m p o r t a n t t o a s s e s s -the v a l u e s o c i e t y a t t a c h e s t o a c l i m a t e p r o o f s y s t e m . A t p r e s e n t t h e i s s u e o f p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s o n l y o f c o n c e r n t o a s m a l l component o f C a n a d i a n s o c i e t y , n a m e l y a d o z e n o r so a c a d e m i c s and c i v i l s e r v a n t s , who a r e a t t e m p t i n g t o e s t a b l i s h l i n e s o f communi-c a t i o n w i t h r e l e v a n t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s t h r o u g h t h e S c i e n c e C o u n c i l ' s ' L i v i n g w i t h C l i m a t i c Change' p r o g r a m . I n many ways t h e 'DOSRAP' model i s o p e r a t i o n a l i s e d i n th e S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e m e t h o d o l o g y . The S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e A p p r o a c h T h i s a p p r o a c h f o c u s e s on t h e p o i n t o f c h o i c e , t h e common d e n o m i n a t o r i n a l l d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , be i t o f a p u b l i c , p r i v a t e , i n d i v i d u a l o r g r o u p n a t u r e . I n t h e c o u r s e o f a f i v e - y e a r o p e r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h s t u d y o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n C o v e n t r y , E n g l a n d , a team f r o m t h e I n s t i t u t e o f O p e r a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h d e v e l o p e d t h e so c a l l e d S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e d e c i s i o n m e t h o d o l o g y . 49 F i r s t l y , i t must be c a p a b l e o f i d e n t i f y i n g t h e c h a n g i n g f o c u s o f a p r o b l e m , s e c o n d l y , i t must manage c o m p l e x i t y and t h i r d l y , i t must be c a p a b l e o f managing u n c e r t a i n t y ( H i c k l i n g , 1976). A c y c l i c a l model o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s w i t h m u l t i p l e f e e d b a c k l o o p s among t h e v a r i o u s p h a s e s i s s u g g e s t e d . The p r o c e s s i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n A l a n H i c k l i n g ' s r e m a r k a b l y l u c i d d i a g r a m ( s e e F i g . 5). The c o l l e c t i o n o f t e c h n i q u e s and methods a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s p r o c e s s i s known as AIDA, t h e a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r -c o n n e c t e d d e c i s i o n a r e a s . AIDA b e g i n s w i t h t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f d e c i s i o n a r e a s w i t h i n w h i c h m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e c h o i c e s o r o p t i o n s a r e f e a s i b l e . The i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s and i m p o s s i b l e c o m b i n a t i o n s a r e i d e n t i f i e d and a l i s t o f f e a s i b l e s o l u t i o n s i s f o r m u l a t e d i n a s o l u t i o n t r e e . The l a t t e r i s a r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e s e q u e n t i a l n a t u r e o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . I n t h e e v a l u a t i o n , t h e a n a l y s i s o f u n c e r t a i n t y s u r f a c e s most p r o m i n e n t l y w i t h a d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e r a n g e (what and who), t h e s c a l e (how much) and t h e c a u s e o f t h e e f f e c t s (what w o r t h ) . F r i e n d (1971) d i s t i n g u i s h e s t h r e e c l a s s e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y r e q u i r i n g d i f f e r e n t commitments f o r t h e i r r e s o l u t i o n : "1. U n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e o p e r a t i n g e n v i r o n m e n t (UE) ( e . g . t h e p h y s i c a l , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t o f a l o c a l a u t h o r i t y ) . 2. U n c e r t a i n t y i n r e l a t e d a r e a s o f c h o i c e (UR.) ( e . g . a c t i o n s c o n t e m p l a t e d o r p r o c e e d e d w i t h by o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s ) . 50 The Strategic Choice Approach process ; concepts ; methods; f<ck,iu> Decision, ATZAS ' \ (lwMal tbcus) \ fyfonBars ' (movers? Feasible Solution*, ^ Whfi&r shall* we do? i , , . . . . . x. \ # Analysis ft*&rtai*ty frAyieti: feyise Units) Criteria/ Valuatun,l> Evaluate*, Criteria.) (tawU cf~K?VLtw) (Utetisu/C, Area, sa Sa2(4#H£iuj) figure 5 : Strategic Choice Approach. From: Aids to Strategic Choice, 1976. 51 3 . U n c e r t a i n t y t o a p p r o p r i a t e v a l u e judgements (UV) ( e . g . t h e v a l u e s t h a t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s a t t a c h t o t h e e f f e c t s o f d e c i s i o n s on t h e i r c o n s t i t u e n t s ) . " S o l u t i o n s a r e t e s t e d f o r r o b u s t n e s s , t h e s e n s i t i v i t y t o t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y i n f i e l d s o u t s i d e t h e a g e n c i e s ' c o n t r o l , o r f o r a d a p t i v e n e s s , t h e a b i l i t y t o a d j u s t a s e t o f a c t i o n s i n t h e l i g h t o f p a r t i c u l a r t r e n d s e m e r g i n g a t a l a t e r p o i n t i n t i m e . W i t h t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g e n e r a t e d a commitment p a c k a g e i s f o r m u l a t e d . T h i s i s made up o f an a c t i o n s e t and a p o l i c y s e t . The a c t i o n s e t s c o n t a i n s a c t i o n s t h a t c a n be t a k e n now and t h e s e may i n c l u d e e x p l o r a -t i o n s i n t o u n c e r t a i n t y . The p o l i c y s e t has a d e l a y e d a c t i o n s e t and a s e r i e s o f c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s c o n d i t i o n a l on c e r t a i n s i t u a t i o n s a r i s i n g . The s t r a t e g i c c h o i c e a p p r o a c h i s p r i m a r i l y d e v e l o p e d t o i d e n t i f y s y s t e m i c a l l y t h e e f f e c t s o f a c h o i c e i n one a r e a on c h o i c e s i n r e l a t e d f i e l d s and i t assumes e q u a l i t y among d e c i s i o n a r e a s . I n p l a n n i n g f o r h y d r o e l e c t r i c d e v e l o p m e n t t h e r e i s a h i e r a r c h y o f d e c i s i o n s , t h e d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d i s s e v e r a l o r d e r s o f m a g n i t u d e g r e a t e r t h a n s u b o r d i n a t e d e c i s i o n s d e a l i n g w i t h t h e h e i g h t o f t h e dam, t h e s i z e o f t h e r e s e r v o i r and t h e number o f g e n e r a t o r s . The t y p e s o f c h o i c e s r e f e r r e d t o by t h i s m e t h o d o l o g y a f f e c t t h e s t a t e and s t r u c t u r e o f a s y s t e m p a r t i a l l y o r t o t a l l y u n d e r t h e c o n t r o l o f an a g e n c y . P l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s a t l e a s t f o r t h e t i m e b e i n g , n o t c o n c e r n e d w i t h d e c i s i o n s a f f e c t i n g t h e s t r u c t u r e and s t a t e 52 o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m . I n t h e S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e model t h e c l i m a t i c i n p u t c o u l d come a t two l e v e l s . The p r o b l e m c o u l d be d e f i n e d as "How many dams and t h e r m a l p l a n t s s h o u l d be b u i l t ? " I n t h i s c a s e c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y w o u l d be an e v a l u a t i v e f a c t o r and i s c l a s s e d as a n UE ( U n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e o p e r a t i n g e n v i r o n m e n t ) . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e p r o b l e m can a l s o be v i e w e d as "How t o p l a n and o p e r a t e t h e g e n e r a t i n g s y s t e m t o be more r e s p o n s i v e t o g r e a t e r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y ? I n t h e l a t t e r s i t u a t i o n t h e a n a l y s t s p e c i f i c a l l y d e a l s w i t h t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f o p t i o n s i n a p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y . Many o f t h e c o n c e p t s d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s a p p r o a c h a r e r e l e v a n t f o r our p u r p o s e s . The v e r y b a s i c s , l i k e m anaging u n c e r t a i n t y , t h e i n t e r c o n h e c t e d n e s s o f v a r i o u s p a r t s o f s y s t e m s , and t h e i t e r a t i v e n a t u r e o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s a r e o b v i o u s l y a p p l i c a b l e . The c o n c e p t s o f s o l u t i o n r o b u s t n e s s and a d a p t i v i t y a r e u s e f u l e v a l u a t i v e a i d s when a s s e s s i n g t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m ' s p e r f o r m a n c e u n d e r d i f f e r e n t c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s , and t h e i m p a c t s o f d i f f e r e n t r e s p o n s e s t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . The u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e o p e r a t i n g e n v i r o n m e n t (UE)' has been d e f i n e d f o r our p u r p o s e s so as t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between s t r u c t u r e and s t a t e o f s y s t e m . U n c e r t a i n t y o f v a l u e (UV) has b een a d o p t e d p a r t i c u l a r l y t o i d e n t i f y and e x p l o r e r i s k v a l u a t i o n i n t h e s o c i e t a l s y s t e m . The i d e a o f a commitment p a c k a g e i s a p p e a l i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y p r e s e n t s an o n g o i n g n e e d t o e x p l o r e 53 • u n c e r t a i n t y , w h i l e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i m p l e m e n t i n g a c t i o n s t h a t s a f e g u a r d man-made s y s t e m s a g a i n s t c r i t i c a l f a i l u r e . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n a t t e m p t s t o f o r m u l a t e a t h e o r e t i c a l p l a n n i n g model t h a t i s i n p a r t b a s e d on some o f t h e components o f t h e f o u r a p p r o a c h e s r e v i e w e d . The e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t a s s e s s m e n t a p p r o a c h h a s s u g g e s t e d means f o r i m p r o v i n g t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m , w h i l e t h e S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e a p p r o a c h has some i n v a l u a b l e components w h i c h f o c u s t h e c o l l e c t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f d a t a on t h e c h o i c e s f a c e d by t h e managers o f c l i m a t i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s . Towards a P l a n n i n g M o d e l C l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y p r e s e n t s a p e r v a s i v e n e s s , d e t e r m i n a c y and a l a c k o f human c o n t r o l , t h a t c a l l s f o r some s p e c i a l f e a t u r e s o f a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s t h a t w i s h e s t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h i s v a r i a b l e . T h i s p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s s h o u l d a l s o be a b l e t o be i n t e g r a t e d i n h i g h e r o r d e r d e c i s i o n -m a king p r o c e s s e s o f r e l e v a n t a g e n c i e s , y e t be c a p a b l e o f g e n e r a t i n g new a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t m i g h t o t h e r w i s e be o v e r l o o k e d . D r a w i n g on t h e above a n a l y s i s o f c u r r e n t p l a n n i n g m e t h o d o l o g i e s , t h e p l a n n i n g model has s e v e n p h a s e s : A. P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n B. S y s t e m I d e n t i f i c a t i o n 5 4 C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y E. F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s F. E v a l u a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s G. D e v e l o p m e n t o f a Commitment P a c k a g e The s e q u e n c e o f s t e p s r e s e m b l e s t h e S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e m o del, b u t i n o u r model t h e c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d and e x p l o r e d p r i o r t o t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s . The c o n t e n t o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l s t e p s i s m o d e l l e d on a c o m b i n a t i o n o f i d e a s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e E n v i r o n m e n t a l Impact, DOSRAP, and S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e a p p r o a c h e s . • A. P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n . I n t h i s p h a s e i n t e r a c t i o n between v a r i o u s s o c i e t a l components s u c h as t h e "'weather w a t c h e r s ' and t h e e n e r g y d e v e l o p m e n t i n t e r e s t s , b e g i n t o p e r c e i v e a p r o b l e m . I n o u r c a s e t h i s m i g h t be r o u g h l y d e f i n e d as t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e h y d r o -e l e c t r i c p r o d u c t i o n t o p r e v i o u s l y u n a n t i c i p a t e d c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . The p r o b l e m t h e n n e e d s t o be t r a n s f e r r e d t o an a g e n c y t h a t i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r h y d r o e l e c t r i c d e v e l o p m e n t and i s c o m m i t t e d t o a l l o c a t e r e s o u r c e s t o f u r t h e r i n v e s t -i g a t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m . B. S y s t e m s I d e n t i f i c a t i o n . An i n t e r a c t i v e , i t e r a t i v e p r o c e s s among members o f a s m a l l m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y g r o u p o f e x p e r t s i s l i k e l y t o be t h e most e f f e c t i v e way o f i d e n t i f y i n g s y s t e m s and s y s t e m r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t a f f e c t t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a human r e s p o n s e t o i n c r e a s e d c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y " i n h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g . I n t h e c a s e s t u d y f i v e s y s t e m s a r e i d e n t i f i e d : a g l o b a l c l i m a t i c , a l o c a l h y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l , a h y d r o e l e c t r i c , a n i n s t i t u t i o n a l and a s o c i e t a l s y s t e m . C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y . W i t h i n t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m two s o u r c e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y have a l r e a d y b e en i d e n t i f i e d : - U n c e r t a i n t y o f c l i m a t i c s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e - U n c e r t a i n t y o f v a r i a n c e As f a r as t h e i m p a c t e d s y s t e m s -are c o n c e r n e d t h e r e i s u n l i k e l y t o be u n c e r t a i n t y o f s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e b e c a u s e most o f them a r e man-made. However, t h e r e m i g h t be u n c e r t a i n t i e s a b o u t t h e v a r i a n c e o f s y s t e m s t a t e s s h o u l d t h e c l i m a t i c r e g i m e move i n t o p r e v i o u s l y u n o b s e r v e d r e a l m s . As p r o j e c t e d p r o d u c t i o n o u t p u t s o f many s y s t e m s have been b a s e d on an u n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e c l i m a t i c r e c o r d , t h e r e t u r n t o a more v a r i a b l e r e g i m e w i l l a f f e c t p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s . The n a t u r e and m a g n i t u d e o f t h e s e o u t p u t c h a n g es have been c l a s s e d as u n c e r t a i n t i e s o f i m p a c t . U n c e r t a i n t i e s o f r i s k v a l u a t i o n a r e b e s t i d e n t i f i e d and e x p l o r e d a t a l a t e r s t a g e o f t h e p r o c e s s . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y i s b e s t c a r r i e d o u t t h r o u g h a literature.-.-revi-ew-. 56 D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y . The o b j e c t o f t h i s p h a s e i s t o i d e n t i f y and p o s s i b l y n a r r o w t h e b o u n d s o f u n c e r t a i n t y . A s f a r a s c l i m a t i c s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e i s c o n c e r n e d , a n a l y s i s s h o u l d i d e n t i f y c o n v e r g e n c e o r d i v e r g e n c e o f t h e o r i e s . A s s u m i n g t h e p a s t i s t h e b e s t g u i d e t o t h e f u t u r e t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f v a r i a n c e , l o c a t i o n , c o m b i n a t i o n and s e q u e n c e , c a n be e x p l o r e d by e x t e n d i n g r e c o r d e d m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a t h r o u g h a n a n a l y s i s o f i c e c o r e s ; t r e e - r i n g s o r p o l l e n . S t o c h a s t i c s i m u l a t i o n m i g h t a l s o be u s e d . Upon c o m p l e t i o n o f a n i t e r a t i o n o f t h i s a n a l y s i s t h e u n c e r t a i n t y o f i m p a c t s on t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c ( o r a n y o t h e r s y s t e m ) c a n be a s s e s s e d t h r o u g h m o d e l l i n g t h e i m p a c t e d s y s t e m . C l i m a t i c a l l y v a r i a b l e i n p u t s t o t h e m o d e l s h o u l d p r o v i d e t h e a n a l y s t w i t h a n i n d i c a t i v e r a n g e o f s y s t e m b e h a v i o u r . A p p l i c a t i o n o f p r o b a b i l i t y t e c h n i q u e s may a l s o be e m p l o y e d t o a c q u i r e a n i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y . r e i c.urr.ing;^ -E. F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e A c t i o n s . F i v e c l a s s e s o f a c t i o n s a r e c o n s i d e r e d : 1. O p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s 2 . C o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s 3. D e s i g n c r i t e r i a and p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t s 4. E x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s i n t o : C l i m a t i c s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e C l i m a t i c v a r i a n c e 57 Impacts on h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m s - R i s k v a l u a t i o n 5 . M o n i t o r i n g p l a n s The t y p e s o f a c t i o n s and p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s w i l l now be d i s c u s s e d . O p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s would c o n s i s t o f a c t i o n s i n t h e o p e r a t i o n o f a h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i n g s y s t e m t h a t c a n be c a r r i e d out i m m e d i a t e l y . T h i s m i g h t be a c h a n g i n g o f t h e w a t e r l e v e l s i n r e s e r v o i r s o r a d j u s t m e n t s i n t h e g e n e r a t i n g e q u i p m e n t . C o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s a f f e c t t h e o p e r a t i o n s o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m , b u t w i l l o n l y be i m p l e m e n t e d c o n d i t i o n a l on c e r t a i n a n t i c i p a t e d t r e n d s m a t e r i a l i s i n g a t a f u t u r e d a t e . D e s i g n c r i t e r i a and p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t s a f f e c t t h e d e s i g n s t a n d a r d s o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c equipment y e t t o be i n s t a l l e d . I t m i g h t i n v o l v e d e s i g n i n g r e s e r v o i r s w i t h l o n g e r draw down p e r i o d s , o r c r e a t i n g a t h e r m a l r e s e r v e so t h a t g r e a t e r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y c a n be. a b s o r b e d . E x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s a r e f u r t h e r s t u d i e s a d d r e s s i n g s p e c i f i e d a r e a s o f u n c e r t a i n t y . T h e s e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s a r e c o n s i d e r a b l y more i n t e n s i v e t h a n t h e f i r s t a t t e m p t s t o n a r r o w t h e bounds o f u n c e r t a i n t y . The p e r v a s i v e n e s s o f t h e c l i m a t e i s a s u f f i c i e n t r e a s o n f o r j o i n t c o o p e r a t i o n b etween a number o f a g e n c i e s a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l , n a t i o n a l o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l . R e s e a r c h i n t o t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m i s a l r e a d y c a r r i e d out i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y t h r o u g h t h e G-ARP p r o j e c t , b u t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n does n o t a p p e a r t o be e f f e c t i v e l y 58 a b s o r b e d by t h o s e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r d e v e l o p i n g and m a i n t a i n i n g l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s ( S c h n e i d e r , 1 9 7 6 ) . The n a t i o n a l l e v e l w o u l d a l s o be recommended f o r t h i s k i n d o f r e s e a r c h and t h i s l e v e l may a l s o p r o v e c o n v e n i e n t f o r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a n c e . The l a t t e r e f f o r t s s h o u l d however be c o n c e n t r a t e d a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l w i t h a p r o g r a m o f t r e e - r i n g and i c e - c o r e a n a l y s e s t h a t w o u l d a t t e m p t t o -extend w r i t t e n r e c o r d s o f t e m p e r a t u r e , p r e c i p i t a t i o n and r u n o f f i n a r e a s where c r i t i c a l l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s a r e l o c a t e d . U n c e r t a i n t y o f i m p a c t i s p r i m a r i l y w i t h i n t h e s p h e r e o f t h e a g e n c y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e p a r t i c u l a r l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m . O p t i o n s h e r e m i g h t be i m p r o v e d t h r o u g h m o d e l l i n g o f c r i t i c a l a s p e c t s o f t h e s y s t e m . F u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n s i n t o u n c e r t a i n t i e s a b o u r r i s k v a l u a t i o n i n t h e s o c i e t a l s y s t e m s h o u l d a l s o be a t t e m p t e d as i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l p r o v i d e an i m p o r t a n t i n p u t i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i o n s . M o n i t o r i n g p l a n s - C r i t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s i n t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m s h o u l d be m o n i t o r e d b o t h a t t h e g l o b a l and p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l i n o r d e r t o d e t e c t t h e o n s e t o f a n t i c i p a t e d t r e n d s t h a t may r e q u i r e t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s . J o i n t a c t i o n programs w i t h f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s s u c h as AES w o u l d seem most f e a s i b l e . O p t i o n s as t o t h e e x t e n t o f t h e a g e n c y ' s i n v o l v e -ment s h o u l d be e v o l v e d . C l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h and e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s s h o u l d a l s o be s u b j e c t t o m o n i t o r i n g as t h e p r o c e s s p r o c e e d s i n t o t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p h a s e . 59 P. E v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e a c t i o n s . A f a i r l y c o n v e n t i o n a l c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s a n a l y s i s c a n be a p p l i e d t o most o f t h e m o n i t o r i n g and e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s . A l t e r n a t i v e o p e r a t i o n and c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s and d e s i g n c r i t e r i a and p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t s s h o u l d a l s o be t e s t e d f o r r o b u s t n e s s , i . e . t h e i r a p p l i c a b i l i t y u n d e r v a r i o u s c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s . G-. D e v e l o p m e n t o f a commitment p a c k a g e . T h i s p h a s e ' f i n a l i s e s ' t h e p l a n n i n g w i t h t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a s e t o f o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s , c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s , d e s i g n c r i t e r i a a d j u s t m e n t s , e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s and a m o n i t o r i n g p l a n , and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n c a n t h e n p r o c e e d . H a v i n g o u t l i n e d i n g e n e r a l terms a p o s s i b l e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s , we w i l l now d i s c u s s some o f t h e c u r r e n t l i m i t a t i o n s o f p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . L i m i t a t i o n s t o P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y The s u g g e s t e d p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s a t t e m p t s t o i d e n t i f y t h e bounds o f u n c e r t a i n t y and d e v e l o p a n i n d i c a t i v e r a n g e o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y w i t h i n w h i c h ou r l i f e s u p p o r t systems,-f o o d , e n e r g y and w a t e r s u p p l y m i g h t be e x p e c t e d t o p e r f o r m . I t i l l u s t r a t e s t h e v a r i o u s a c t i o n s t h a t a r e s p o n s i b l e a g e n c y c a n and s h o u l d t a k e p r i o r t o s c i e n c e d e v e l o p i n g t h e ' p e r f e c t ' p r e d i c t i v e model, i f i t e v e r w i l l . T h e r e a r e l i m i t a t i o n s t o s u c h a p r o c e s s , t h e a b s e n c e o f p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y i s a n example o f t h e i n c o m p l e t e knowledge 60 i n the c l i m a t e - l o g i c a l f i e l d , but t h e r e a r e a l s o l i m i t a t i o n s i n p l a n n i n g methodology and t h e p o l i t i c a l commitment r e q u i r e d t o i n i t i a t e and m a i n t a i n such a p r o c e s s . A t t h e p r e s e n t time p o l i t i c a l commitment i s the key t o encourage th e r e s e a r c h and m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y a c t i o n needed t o s u c c e s s f u l l y i n i t i a t e a c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . -O b t a i n i n g t h i s commitment i s impeded by the d i f f e r e n t t ime s c a l e s of the p o l i t i c i a n and t h e c l i m a t i c p l a n n e r . The p o l i t i c i a n has e s s e n t i a l l y a s h o r t term time h o r i z o n , w h i l e the' c l i m a t i c p l a n n e r has a v e r y l o n g term p e r s p e c t i v e . I t seems t h a t the s t r a t e g y o f a l l o c a t i n g r e s o u r c e s t o the development of a p r e d i c t i v e c l i m a t i c model can o n l y be p a r t i a l l y s u c c e s s f u l i n o b t a i n i n g f u r t h e r l o n g term commit-ments. C l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h i s u n l i k e l y t o be p o l i t i c a l l y c o n s e q u e n t i a l i n the s h o r t term. An overemphasis on p r e d i c t i v e r e s e a r c h may be c o u n t e r - p r o d u c t i v e p o l i t i c a l l y , as i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t the c l i m a t i c system can be " c r a c k e d " i n t h e s h o r t term. P o l i t i c a l d i s a p p o i n t m e n t i n the s c i e n t i f i c community may then l e a d t o a c e s s a t i o n of f u n d i n g . Impact o r i e n t e d r e s e a r c h on t h e o t h e r hand might more q u i c k l y be i n d i c a t i v e of some d r a m a t i c p o t e n t i a l d i s a s t e r s t h a t loom on the " c l i m a t i c horizon".. S o c i e t a l c o n c e r n about th e p o s s i b l e f a i l u r e o f the l i f e ' s u p p o r t system may t h e n more e a s i l y l e a d t o c o n t i n u e d f u n d i n g of r e s e a r c h and the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s as o u t l i n e d above. I n t h i s r e s p e c t t h e swine f l u i m m u n i s a t i o n program, f o r i n s t a n c e , was a r e s p o n s e t o a f e a r o f t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s r a t h e r t h a n a f i r m p r e d i c t i o n t h a t i t w o u l d h appen. U n d o u b t -e d l y t h e b e s t s t i m u l a n t f o r t h e s t a r t o f a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i s a good d o s e o f v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e n e x t d e c a d e . B e s i d e s t h e p o l i t i c a l commitment, t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l i n s t i t u t i o n a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l h u r d l e s t o overcome b e f o r e i c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y w i l l become j u s t a n o t h e r v a r i a b l e i n i p u b l i c and p r i v a t e , d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s t a t i s t i c a l 30 y e a r a v e r a g e i n o u r r e c o r d i n g o f m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a has t e n d e d t o d e l u d e most e n g i n e e r s and a g r i c u l t u r i s t s i n v o l v e d i n t h e m a s s i v e d e v e l o p m e n t o f l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s t h a t a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e d o u b l i n g o f p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e l a s t 30 y e a r s . The f e a r o f b e i n g e x p o s e d t o o v e r o r u n d e r d e s i g n o f f a c i l i t i e s w i l l i n i t i a l l y be a r e a l b a r r i e r i n e n l i s t i n g t h e s k i l l s o f e n g i n e e r s and a g r i c u l t u r i s t s i n t h e c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . P l a n n i n g t o o p r e s e n t s i t s l i m i t a t i o n s , a s was r e m a r k e d e a r l i e r . I t i s o n l y v e r y r e c e n t l y t h a t p l a n n i n g t h e o r y and p r a c t i s e h a v e become aware o f t h e v a r i a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y . W i t h i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o f e s s i o n s t h e r e a r e many t h a t p r e f e r t o i g n o r e i t , r a t h e r t h a n manage i t . The b r o a d e n i n g b a s e o f p l a n n i n g , t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f m o n i t o r i n g , t h e c o n c e p t o f u n c e r t a i n t y and e v a l u a t i v e measures s u c h as r o b u s t n e s s a r e o f m a j o r i m p o r t a n c e t o c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t as t h e m e t h o d o l o g y i m p r o v e s , t h e p r o f e s s i o n w i l l 62 g r a d u a l l y become more r e c e p t i v e to the concepts. Climatology and c l i m a t o l o g i s t s provide l i m i t a t i o n s to the c l i m a t i c planning process. C l i m a t o l o g i s t s have, by t h e i r own confes s i o n , not been very e f f e c t i v e i n developing a human response to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n s p i t e of the f a c t that they are mostly employed by the f e d e r a l government, which i s an important point of leverage i n the system (Hare, 1975). Overly concerned w i t h e s t a b l i s h i n g s c i e n t i f i c t r u t h beyond reasonable doubt, l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n has been passed onto p o l i t i c i a n s and policymakers, who have consequently based d e c i s i o n s on ignorance r a t h e r than u n c e r t a i n t y . The science of c l i m a t o l o g y i s undergoing an immense t r a n s i t i o n w i t h the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the d i g i t a l computer which has enabled massive data processing and the s a t e l l i t e which has given us one eye on the globe and one on the sun. Science has only begun to explore the p o t e n t i a l of these two t o o l s . Although knowledge i s p r e s e n t l y l i m i t e d and d i v e r s e , the r a p i d expansion of knowledge i s l i k e l y to continue and some s c i e n t i s t s expect the development of numerical models to lead to p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of long term v a r i a t i o n s , but that the sma l l e r yet economically s i g n i f i c a n t f l u c t u a t i o n s might defy p r e d i c t i o n (Mason, 1976). The question of the s o l a r v a r i a b i l i t y and the phenomena suggested by W i l l e t i s another current l i m i t a t i o n to our understanding that could be explored w i t h the s a t e l l i t e s . At the more l o c a l s c a l e t r e e - r i n g and g l a c i a l research has not been 63 s p e c i f i c a l l y g e a r e d t o e s t a b l i s h i n g h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n c r i t i c a l a r e a s . C l i m a t o l o g y b o t h i n f i e l d s o f u n c e r t a i n t y o f s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e and s y s t e m v a r i a n c e p o s e s c u r r e n t c o n s t r a i n t s upon t h e c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . Summary T h i s c h a p t e r has a t t e m p t e d t o i l l u s t r a t e how a p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s b a s e d on t h e p r e m i s e o f i d e n t i f y i n g , e x p l o r i n g and managing u n c e r t a i n t y m i g h t be d e v e l o p e d . The u n c e r t a i n t i e s p r e s e n t e d by t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m have been c a t e g o r i s e d i n f o u r c l a s s e s and, t h r o u g h an a n a l y s i s o f e m e r g i n g p l a n n i n g a p p r o a c h e s u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y , a p l a n n i n g model r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f e a c h c l a s s o f u n c e r t a i n t y was d e v e l o p e d . To be e f f e c t i v e t h i s p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s s h o u l d g e n e r a t e b o t h e v a l u a t i v e d a t a and new d e c i s i o n o p t i o n s t o f e e d i n t o e x i s t i n g d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s t h a t a f f e c t t h e development' and o p e r a t i o n o f l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s . C u r r e n t l i m i t a t i o n s t o e f f e c t i v e p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y a r e a l a c k o f a p o l i t i c a l commitment and v a r i o u s b a r r i e r s w i t h i n t h e p r o f e s s i o n s . C h a p t e r F o u r PLANNING- POR CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ; THE CASE OP THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN T h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g model t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c r e s o u r c e s i n t h e Upper C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n . T h i s d e v e l o p -ment o f t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s and t h e p l a n n i n g o f g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y has p r o c e e d e d on t h e b a s i s o f a s e t o f m e t e o r o l o g i c a l d a t a and a f o r t y y e a r s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d t h a t r e l a t e p r i m a r i l y t o a p e r i o d o f c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y , w h i c h i s now j u d g e d t o be u n u s u a l l y warm and s t a b l e ( s e e C h a p t e r Two). T h i s c a s e s t u d y e x p l o r e s some i n d i c a t o r s o f l o n g e r t e r m v a r i a b i l i t y i n the c l i m a t e , t e s t s t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m f o r d i f f e r e n t c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s , and s u g g e s t s a p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y t o i m p r o v e t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m ' s r e s i l i e n c e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . 65 D e s c r i p t i o n o f Study A r e a The s t u d y a r e a i s the Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n w h i c h c o n s t i t u t e s the e n t i r e d r a i n a g e a r e a o f the Columbia R i v e r above R e v e l s t o k e . The d r a i n a g e a r e a of the b a s i n i s 10,300 square m i l e s and i t s l o c a t i o n i s shown on f i g u r e 6. The r i v e r ' s s o u r c e i s i n Columbia Lake and f r o m t h e r e t r a v e l s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 200 m i l e s i n a n o r t h w e s t e r l y d i r e c t i o n where i t makes an a b r u p t t u r n and t h e n f l o w s i n a s o u t h e a s t e r l y d i r e c t i o n f o r 100 m i l e s t o R e v e l s t o k e . The dams a t M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e w i l l c r e a t e two a d d i t i o n a l l a k e s i n the system. The b o u n d a r i e s of the watershed are formed by f i v e mountain ran g e s , the Monashee and C a r i b o o mountains form the w e s t e r n boundary, the Rocky Mountains c h a i n i n the e a s t and the P u r c e l l and S e l k i r k mountains s e p a r a t e the n o r t h e r l y f l o w i n g s e c t i o n o f the Columbia R i v e r from the s e c t i o n f l o w i n g s o u t h from M i c a Dam. The mountains c o n t a i n s e v e r a l peaks i n excess of 10,000 f e e t and a p p r o x i m a t e l y 10$ of the d r a i n a g e a r e a i s c o v e r e d w i t h permanent snow f i e l d s and g l a c i e r s . The r u n o f f from the Columbia B a s i n i s p r i m a r i l y g e n e r a t e d by snow accumulated over the w i n t e r and s p r i n g . The J u n e - J u l y r u n o f f a c c o u n t s f o r 50$ of the a n n u a l t o t a l . The M i c a Dam d r a i n a g e c o m p r i s e s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 80$ o f the b a s i n and has a mean a n n u a l d i s c h a r g e f o r the M i c a Dam s i t e of 20,510 c f s compared t o 28,830 c f s a t R e v e l s t o k e . The a r e a between R e v e l s t o k e and M i c a , a l t h o u g h o n l y 20$ o f the t o t a l a r e a g e n e r a t e s about h a l f as much r u n o f f , as the a r e a 66 F i g u r e 6: L o c a t i o n Map f o r Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n From: R e v e l s t o k e (1880) P r o j e c t , 1975. 67 u p s t r e a m o f t h e M i c a Dam. The b a s i n i s l o c a t e d some 300 t o 400 m i l e s i n l a n d f r o m t h e c o a s t m o u n t a i n s and i t s m a j o r c l i m a t i c d e t e r m i n a n t s a r e th e e a s t w a r d moving m a r i t i m e a i r masses and t h e m o u n t a i n r a n g e s t h a t b o r d e r t h e b a s i n . A n a l y s e s o f t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l m e t e o r o l o g i c a l r e c o r d (75 y e a r s ) show; t h a t t h e t e m p e r a t u r e r e g i m e i s h i g h l y d e p e n d e n t on e l e v a t i o n b u t t h e p a t t e r n o f t e m p e r a t u r e a c r o s s t h e b a s i n i s f a i r l y u n i f o r m (B. C. H y d r o , i 1975a). R e l e v a n c e o f t h e S t u d y A r e a The s t u d y a r e a was s e l e c t e d t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f c l i m a t i c change on t h e e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n p o t e n t i a l o f two m a j o r dams a n d t o o u t l i n e a p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e t o t h e s e c l i m a t i c a l l y i n d u c e d v a r i a t i o n s i n e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y . I t i s r e l e v a n t t o c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n o t h e r c r i t i c a l l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s s u c h as a g r i c u l t u r e and w a t e r s u p p l y i n s o f a r as t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s a b o u t t e m p e r a t u r e and p r e c i p i t a t i o n a r e i d e n t i c a l and t h e mode, b u t n o t t h e s u b s t a n c e o f p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e , i s t o be s i m i l a r . The U p p e r C o l u m b i a B a s i n i s i l l u s t r a t i v e o f a g r o u p o f r i v e r b a s i n s ( e . g . P e a c e R i v e r , B.C., L a Grande R i v i e r e , P.Q.) b e c a u s e i t i s d e v e l o p e d e x t e n s i v e l y f o r h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n . The two dams a r e a n t i c i p a t e d t o c o n t r i b u t e 68 15% of B.C.'s t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y supply by 1990. E l e c t r i c i t y i s p r o j e c t e d to i n c r e a s e i t s share i n B.C.'s o v e r a l l energy supply from 18.6% (1976) to 22.9% (2006) (BCEC, 1976). C l i m a t i c a l l y the a r e a i s of i n t e r e s t because the r i v e r i s p a r t i a l l y f e d by the Columbia i c e f i e l d where g l a c i e r s have r e c e n t l y s t a r t e d to advance agai n a f t e r a two hundred year r e c e s s i o n p e r i o d (MacLean's, 1977) and a c o n t i n u a t i o n of t h i s t rend might p o s s i b l y l e a d to i n c r e a s e d d u r a t i o n of snowpack at h i g h e r e l e v a t i o n s . The h y d r o e l e c t r i c developments on the Columbia are a l s o r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of a c l a s s of c l i m a t i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e p r o j e c t s , which are designed on the b a s i s of a s h o r t c l i m a t i c r e c o r d . The designs f o r Mica and Revelstoke Dams with a suggested l i f e expectancy of 70 - 100 y e a r s , were based on a 40 year streamflow r e c o r d 1928 - 1968 and a d i s c o n t i n u o u s temperature and p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e c o r d from 12 s t a t i o n s , f o u r of which date back 60 to 75 y e a r s . Using a s h o r t c l i m a t i c r e c o r d f o r a major p r o j e c t can c r e a t e problems, p a r t i c u l a r l y i f the l o n g e r term i n d i c a t o r s appear to be i n c o n s i s t e n t with the design regime. A l l g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g i n B.C. and indeed most a g r i c u l t u r a l , energy development and water supply p l a n n i n g have a s i m i l a r f o u n d a t i o n (Chapter One). Increased v a r i a b i l i t y i n r u n o f f w i l l be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h corresponding f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e l e c t r i c i t y output. T h i s r e q u i r e s the development of a d a p t i v e a c t i o n s and an a n a l y s i s of trade o f f s between s h o r t term p r o d u c t i o n l o s s e s and 69 e x c e s s e s on t h e one hand and l o n g t e r m s y s t e m s e c u r i t y on t h e o t h e r . I n summary t h e s t u d y a r e a i s r e l e v a n t b o t h on t h e g r o u n d s o f s i g n i f i c a n c e t o B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a power s u p p l i e s and as a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e c a s e o f a c l a s s o f p r o b l e m s where t h e p l a n n i n g o f l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s has been b a s e d on a s h o r t and, i n r e t r o s p e c t , u n u s u a l c l i m a t i c r e g i m e . P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s A n a t t e m p t has been made t o a p p l y t h e p r e v i o u s l y o u t l i n e d p l a n n i n g model ( s e e C h a p t e r T h r e e ) t o t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n , and t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s d e v o t e d t o d e s c r i b i n g i n d e t a i l t h e f i r s t f i v e s t e p s o f t h i s s e v e n - p h a s e p r o c e s s . The p r o c e s s s t e p s : A. P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n B. S y s t e m I d e n t i f i c a t i o n C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y E . P o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s P. E v a l u a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s G-. D e velopment o f a Commitment P a c k a g e w i l l be u s e d as h e a d i n g s f o r t h e d i s c u s s i o n . The l a s t two p h a s e s have n o t been t r e a t e d i n d e t a i l . A. P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n The p r o b l e m i n t h i s c a s e was r e c o g n i z e d by an i n d i v i d u a l r e s e a r c h e r and t h e p r o b l e m has b e e n d e f i n e d as 70 an i n a d e q u a t e management response t o g r e a t e r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y when the o r i g i n a l d e s i g n s t u d i e s were u n d e r t a k e n . The p r e s e n t base f o r energy c a p a b i l i t y p l a n n i n g i s the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d 1941-1946, a r e l a t i v e l y d r y f i v e y e a r s i n the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d , but o n l y h a l f the magnitude and one t h i r d the d u r a t i o n o f a drought t h a t t r e e - r i n g i n d i c a t o r s o u r c e s s uggest might have s t r u c k the b a s i n f rom 1864-1884. B. C. Hydro's p r e s e n t r e sponse t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s t o c o n t i n u e t o p l a n minimum p r o d u c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y on the b a s i s of the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d u n t i l a worse drought i s r e c o r d e d . T h i s "new" r e c o r d drought i s l i k e l y t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h power s h o r t a g e s u n l e s s t h e c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s a r e i d e n t i f i e d and managed i n a manner s i m i l a r t o the one o u t l i n e d i n t h i s r e p o r t . B. System I d e n t i f i c a t i o n The systems p e r t i n e n t t o the development of a human response t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n the Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n a r e comprised of two n a t u r a l systems, one e n g i n e e r i n g system, and an i n s t i t u t i o n a l system a l l a f f e c t i n g o r o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n the s o c i e t a l system. F i g u r e 7 shows the systems and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The h y d r o e l e c t r i c system i n the Upper Columbia B a s i n comprises the M i c a Dam and power s t a t i o n and the R e v e l s t o k e Dam and powerhouse c u r r e n t l y under c o n s t r u c t i o n . The M i c a Dam i s p a r t o f the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y and performs an i m p o r t a n t s t o r a g e r o l e f o r p r o j e c t s downstream i n Canada 71 WATCHERS I /ATMOSPHERIC E U V I R O K E W T seavi.cE j SOCIETAL S Y S T B K 1 / I -~^\ IENERQY i 'INTERESTS I \ _ ^  / '*-^\ . ELECTRIC- \ MTY USERSi \ GLOBAL CUHAT1C SYSTEM — - A $ INSTITUTIONAL S Y S T E M (B.C. HYDROS I I I "TFT k — U P P E R COLUMBIA HYDRO - HETEREO LOqICAL SYSTEM H Y D R O - E L E C T R I C S Y S T E M -» > IMFORMATIOKJ FLOWS PHYSICAL CONTROL Figure 7: System Relationships 7 2 and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . M i c a has a g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y o f 2600 MW, w h i c h i s a c h i e v e d a t a mean a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w of 20,510 c f s and R e v e l s t o k e ' s c a p a c i t y i s 2700 MW based on a mean a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w o f 28,830 c f s . The i n s t i t u t i o n a l system (B.C. Hydro) has been d e v e l o p i n g and o p e r a t i n g a h y d r o e l e c t r i c system i n the Upper Columbia R i v e r . The performance of t h i s system i s dependent on the h y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l system. To t h i s - e n d the i n s t i t u t i o n m o n i t o r s t e m p e r a t u r e , p r e c i p i t a t i o n , snowpack and s t r e a m f l o w i n the a r e a , and these r e c o r d s form the b a s i s f o r i n i t i a l development and subsequent o p e r a t i o n of the R e v e l s t o k e and M i c a Dams. The pr e s e n c e of the r e s e r v o i r s i mpacts s t r e a m f l o w and the e v a p o r a t i o n regime. The g l o b a l c l i m a t i c system a f f e c t s the l o c a l c l i m a t i c regime, but i t i s o n l y r e c e n t l y t h a t some p a r t s o f s o c i e t a l system have begun t o r e c o g n i s e g l o b a l c l i m a t i c t r e n d s and t h e i r i m p a c t s on l o c a l r e g i m e s . The weather w a t c h e r s , academics, n a t i o n a l weather o f f i c e s (and the C.I.A.) a r e a t t e m p t i n g t o pass t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n on t o the r e s t o f the s o c i e t a l system t h r o u g h news coverage, r e p o r t s i n p r e s s and p o p u l a r s c i e n t i f i c magazines. A t t e m p t s have a l s o been made t o i n c r e a s e the c l i m a t i c awareness of i n s t i t u t i o n s . An example i s the p r o j e c t " L i v i n g w i t h C l i m a t i c Change", sponsored by the S c i e n c e C o u n c i l of Canada and t h e Canadian ' M e t e o r o l o g i c a l S o c i e t y , w h i c h has encouraged i n s t i t u t i o n s t o a s s e s s the i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e v a r i o u s c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s t h a t the group has o u t l i n e d ( S c i e n c e C o u n c i l , 1976). C. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of U n c e r t a i n t i e s The t h e o r e t i c a l model s u g g e s t s the f o l l o w i n g c l a s s e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y : 1. u n c e r t a i n t y of c l i m a t i c system s t r u c t u r e 2. u n c e r t a i n t y of c l i m a t i c v a r i a n c e 3. u n c e r t a i n t y of impacts 4- u n c e r t a i n t y of r i s k v a l u a t i o n U n c e r t a i n t y c l a s s e s 2 and 3 have been a c t i v e l y a d d r e s s e d i n the case s t u d y . U n c e r t a i n t y o f system s t r u c t u r e has been r e f e r r e d t o i n Cha p t e r Two and the main c o n c l u s i o n s were: a) g l o b a l l y the 30-40 y e a r s p r i o r t o 1970 were u n u s u a l l y warm and s t a b l e ; b) the causes of c l i m a t i c change are obscure but t h e r e a re s t r o n g p o i n t e r s towards the s o l a r output i n terms of i n t e n s i t y , spectrum and magnetic o r i e n t a t i o n as w e l l as t e r r e s t i a l i causes such as the breakdown o f t h e ozone l a y e r , i n c r e a s e d CO^ and p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n ; c) t h e p r o c e s s e s t h a t r e d i s t r i b u t e energy a c r o s s the g l o b e a r e n o t c o m p l e t e l y u n d e r s t o o d ; d) a r e l a t i v e l y c o n s i s t e n t p i c t u r e of the h i s t o r i c c l i m a t e can be b u i l t up by use of p r o x y r e c o r d s . U n c e r t a i n t y of v a r i a n c e has been i d e n t i f i e d by comparing the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d w i t h a c c o u n t s of l o n g t e rm v a r i a b i l i t y i n t he l i t e r a t u r e (NAS, 1975; Lamb, 1972; S c i e n c e C o u n c i l , 1975). I t appeared, u n l i k e l y that the i n s t r u m e n t a l streamflow r e c o r d (1928-1968) would he r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the magnitude, d u r a t i o n and r a t e s of h i s t o r i c c l i m a t i c change i n the Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n . P r e s e n t l y the h i s t o r i c r e c o r d i s regarded as the best base f o r pl a n n i n g , hence c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y about the range of f u t u r e s t a t e s of the hydro-m e t e o r o l o g i c a l system e x i s t s . U n c e r t a i n t y of impact has been i d e n t i f i e d by reviewing the analyses p e r t a i n i n g to g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g . The i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i n g system has been designed to perform w i t h i n the range of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n d i c a t e d by the 40 year r e c o r d . The l o n g e s t sequence of low streamflows (1941-1946) i s d e f i n e d as the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d when the f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y or minimum p r o d u c t i o n of the system i s reached. These analyses s p e c i f i c a l l y exclude a n t i c i p a t e d p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s under worse sequences than those i n s t r u m e n t a l l y recorded. I t i s a l s o assumed t h a t a drought • sequence w i l l not be accompanied by a prolonged thermal g e n e r a t i o n outage (B. C. Hydro, 1975). U n c e r t a i n t y of r i s k v a l u a t i o n has not been f u l l y addressed. The t r a d e o f f s between long term system s e c u r i t y and short term p r o d u c t i o n l o s s e s are r e c o g n i s e d , but have not been q u a n t i f i e d . I t appears the system i s p r e s e n t l y regarded as safe and Hydro's present p o l i c y to have none of i t s major i n d u s t r i a l customers on i n t e r r u p t i b l e c o n t r a c t s i s i n d i c a t i v e of t h i s c o n f i d e n c e . 7 5 D. E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y I n t h e c o u r s e o f t h i s s t u d y s e v e r a l a r e a s o f u n c e r t a i n t y were e x p l o r e d . A l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w has a t t e m p t e d t o n a r r o w t h e r a n g e o f u n c e r t a i n t y o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e and t h i s s t u d y i s f u l l y r e p o r t e d on i n C h a p t e r Two. The b u l k o f t h e e f f o r t has been d i r e c t e d t o s t u d i e s a i m i n g t o r e d u c e t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s o f v a r i a n c e , s e q u e n c e and c o m b i n a t i o n i n t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a B a s i n . A r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e s o o n r e v e a l e d t h e e x i s t e n c e o f " p r o x y " d a t a w h i c h c o u l d be u s e d t o e x t e n d t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d b a c k i n h i s t o r y . L a y e r e d i c e c o r e s , t r e e - r i n g s , f o s s i l p o l l e n and m o u n t a i n g l a c i e r s , a l l c a r r y t h e p a l e o c l i m a t i c r e c o r d i n d i f f e r e n t f o r m s . C o n s i d e r a t i o n s o f t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s o f t h e f o u r p r o x y d a t a s o u r c e s s o o n n a r r o w e d t h e c h o i c e t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f t r e e - r i n g s as t h e most f e a s i b l e f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s t u d y (UBC, 1 9 7 7 ) . T r e e - r i n g A n a l y s i s T r e e - r i n g a n a l y s i s o r d e n d r o c h r o n o l o g y was i n i t i a l l y d e v e l o p e d -.in t h e e a r l y n i n e t e e n h u n d r e d s and was g r a d u a l l y p e r f e c t e d t o become an e x t r e m e l y u s e f u l s o u r c e o f p r o x y d a t a w i t h a r e s o l u t i o n l e v e l o f one y e a r and r e c o r d s e x t e n d i n g up t o 1 , 3 0 0 y e a r s b e f o r e t h e p r e s e n t i n \ B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 76 Depending on s p e c i e s and l o c a t i o n , the t r e e - r i n g width or latewood d e n s i t y r e f l e c t s the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r (or f a c t o r s ) i n the t r e e ' s annual growth. T h i s might be temperature, p r e c i p i t a t i o n or s o i l moisture or a combination of these but more s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s can be obtained i f the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i s o n l y one of these. Por c l i m a t i c analyses the t r e e - r i n g width data are converted to r i n g - w i d t h i n d i c e s by the removal of the growth t r e n d . A h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d and r i n g width or latewood d e n s i t y i n d i c e s enables the a n a l y s t to extend the c l i m a t i c r e c o r d back through time by means of a . r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s on the t r e e - r i n g data. A sample of t r e e s i s n o r m a l l y covered i n a number of l o c a t i o n s and the sample means form the b a s i s of dendro-c l i m a t o l o g i c a l analyses (Smith, 1970). For t h i s study i t proved f e a s i b l e t o o b t a i n an i n d i c a t i o n of only the magnitude and d u r a t i o n of d e v i a t i o n s from c l i m a t i c means that had been observed elsewhere i n northwestern America. Three i n d i c a t o r sources were used: a) An account of 26 t r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g i e s i n northwestern America d a t i n g back to 1500 ( F r i t t s , 1965). b) An e m p i r i c a l r e c o n s t r u c t i o n of water l e v e l s f o r Lake Athabasca (1810-1967) (Stockton, 1971). 77 c) The Peyto Lake chronology c o r r e l a t i n g latewood d e n s i t y w i t h August r u n o f f s i n three r i v e r s d a t i n g hack to 1680 (Parker, 1971). A l l three sources have t h e i r l i m i t a t i o n s , but they a l l suggest the same range of expected v a r i a b i l i t y . C l i m a t i c H i s t o r y of Northwestern Worth America The c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y of northwestern America has been r e c o n s t r u c t e d by P r i t t s (1965) on the b a s i s of r i n g width a n a l y s i s of 26 c h r o n o l o g i e s , three of which are i n Canada i n Banff, Jasper and on the P r a s e r R i v e r near W i l l i a m s Lake. In t h i s study the p h y s i o l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c l i m a t i c v a r i a b l e s and the phot o s y n t h e s i s and food accumu-l a t i o n s are demonstrated and a f t e r e l a b o r a t e s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s i t i s concluded t h a t " i n g e n e r a l r i n g width r e l a t e s to a 14 month p e r i o d from June to J u l y , but most t r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g i e s e x h i b i t a c l o s e r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h autumn, w i n t e r and s p r i n g moisture than w i t h summer moisture.' Narrow r i n g s r e s u l t from abnormally dry and warm c o n d i t i o n s d u r i n g the p e r i o d p r e c e d i n g the growth season, c o n d i t i o n s which l e a d to slow c e l l f o r m a t i o n . Moist and c o o l c o n d i t i o n s r e s u l t i n wider t r e e - r i n g s . " T h i s g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n holds f o r a l l t r e e s but those growing on h i g h e l e v a t i o n s or c l o s e to the n o r t h e r n t r e e l i n e . 78 Por the Canadian R o c k i e s the p e r i o d s 1651-1660, 1751-1760, 1786-1805, 1856-1875, 1896-1905 a r e c l a s s e d as r e l a t i v e l y d r y , w h i l e m o i s t c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l e d i n 1726-1740, 1761-1775, 1816-1841, 1876-1890, 1901-1915- P r i t t s i d e n t i f i e s t hese p e r i o d s a f t e r d e t e r m i n i n g the r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e s of o v e r l a p p i n g t e n - y e a r p e r i o d s . R e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e f o r each t e n - y e a r p e r i o d i s : _ 10 y r . mean - 270 y r . mean  s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n of 270 y r . i n t e r v a l RD thus becomes a d i m e n s i o n l e s s e x p r e s s i o n w h i c h can "be used f o r c o m p a r a t i v e p u r p o s e s . I n the s t u d y the r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e ranges from -1.95 t o 2.04- The magnitude and d u r a t i o n of p e r t u r b a t i o n s was a s s e s s e d by a n a l y s i n g P r i t t ' s r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e t a b l e s f o r the 26 c h r o n o l o g i e s ( r e p r o d u c e d i n Appendix One) f o r d e p a r t u r e s g r e a t e r t h a n 1. D e p a r t u r e s were c l a s s e d i n f o u r c a t e g o r i e s of magnitude and f o u r p e r i o d s of d u r a t i o n . T a b l e 1: R e l a t i v e D e p a r t u r e by Magnitude and D u r a t i o n 10 y r s 15 y r s 20 y r s i 25 y r s 1.00 < RD < 1.20 -1.20 < RD < 1.00 53 15 1 1.21 < RD < 1.40 -1 .40 < RD < -1 .21 17 19 8 1 .41 < RD < 1.60 -1 .60 < RD <-1.41 4 8 1 2 RD > 1.61 < -1.61 1 1 1 The t a b l e shows the numbers of events i n w h i c h the r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e of a c e r t a i n magnitude l a s t e d f o r a d e f i n e d p e r i o d of t i m e . Por example, t h e r e have been 19 events s i n c e 1300 A.D. when c h r o n o l o g i e s d e p a r t e d , f o r a p e r i o d o f 15 y e a r s , between +1.21 and + 1.41 times the 270 y e a r SD f r o m the 270 y e a r mean. E v e n t s a r e c l a s s e d by t h e i r l o n g e s t d u r a t i o n and t h e average r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e . T h i s t a b l e s h o u l d not be i n t e r p r e t e d i n p r o b a b i l i s t i c terms but m e r e l y as i l l u s t r a t i n g t he range of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . I f the amount o f r u n o f f i n the Columbia i s a f u n c t i o n o f temperature and p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e n r e a s o n a b l e s e n s i t i v i t y t e s t s f o r the h y d r o e l e c t r i c system would be c o n d i t i o n s where the mean i s 1.5 SD of the d e s i g n f l o w s e r i e s f o r a p e r i o d o f 15 y e a r s , o r 1.3 x SD f o r 20 y e a r s . The o r i g i n a l t r e e - r i n g d a t a s e r i e s i n B a n f f , J a s p e r and W i l l i a m s Lake were a n a l y s e d i n d e t a i l t o g a i n an i m p r e s s i o n of the s e n s i t i v i t y of u s i n g o n l y a s h o r t r e c o r d and assuming i t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e f o r a much l o n g e r time frame as t h i s i s the c o r n e r s t o n e o f B. C. Hydro's p l a n n i n g . The mean and s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n of the r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e s e r i e s was c a l c u l a t e d and compared t o t h e mean and s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n of the p e r i o d 1916-1940. The l a t t e r was s e l e c t e d because the d a t a d i d n o t extend t o 1968. The r e s u l t s of t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e shown i n Tab l e 2. 80 Table 2: Mean & Standard D e v i a t i o n of P a r t i a l & E n t i r e S e r i e s S e r i e s S e r i e s Mean 1916-1940 Mean S e r i e s S.D. • 1916-1940 S.D. Banff 1461-1955 -0.07 -0.43 0.44 0.17 J asper 1541-1945 -0.07 -0.32 0.48 0.37 W i l l i a m s Lake 1426-1940 -0.07 -0.55 0.45 0.29 The mean and the standard d e v i a t i o n s of the whole s e r i e s can be seen to be h i g h e r than those of the p a r t i a l ' s e r i e s . T r a n s l a t e d - i n c l i m a t i c terms t h i s means t h a t the f i r s t h a l f of t h i s century was. r e l a t i v e l y warmer and d r i e r but w i t h much s m a l l e r f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the regime than the long term d a t a would suggest. These data a l s o i n f e r t h a t the a p p l i c a t i o n of the r e l a t i v e departures d e r i v e d e a r l i e r to streamflow data w i t h an u n u s u a l l y s m a l l v a r i a n c e w i l l tend to underestimate the departures t h a t might be expected. We will-now examine the r e l a t i v e departure i n two other c h r o n o l o g i e s which r e f l e c t r u n o f f i n the Athabasca and Saskatchewan r i v e r s . 81 Lake A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s The Lake A t h a b a s c a s t u d y was p a r t of an i n t e r -d i s c i p l i n a r y s t u d y t o determine l o n g term r i v e r r u n o f f and l a k e l e v e l s and t h e i r e f f e c t s on a n i m a l and p l a n t l i f e i n the Peace-Athabasca D e l t a . ' S t o c k t o n and P r i t t s (1971) used 60 t r e e - r i n g s e r i e s f r om s i x s i t e s and a p p l i e d a c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s , r e l a t i n g w a t e r l e v e l measurements to the t r e e - r i n g d a t a of the s i x s i t e s , t o r e c o n s t r u c t the l e v e l s o f Lake A t h a b a s c a back t o 1810. The team s e l e c t e d w h i t e s p r u c e , w h i c h i n the Peace-Athabasca i s f a r enough from i t s c l i m a t i c l i m i t not t o be v e r y r e s p o n s i v e t o te m p e r a t u r e . The s p e c i e s tends t o grow w e l l when a r i v e r o r s t r e a m i s c l o s e by, but i f a stream meander i s c u t o f f or m i g r a t e s , t r e e growth d e t e r i o r a t e s and o t h e r s p e c i e s b e g i n t o i n v a d e the s i t e s . The a u t h o r s suggest t h a t water' s t a g e a f f e c t s the t r e e growth o f w h i t e s p r u c e . The t r e e g r o w t h - w a t e r s t a g e r e l a t i o n s h i p may n o t always be p o s i t i v e ; f l o o d i n g f o r i n s t a n c e might l i m i t r o o t growth, a f f e c t i n g the t r e e ' s water a b s o r p t i o n i n t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r s , or f l o o d i n g might s u p p l y an excess, of n u t r i e n t s r e s u l t i n g i n h i g h growth . i n subsequent y e a r s . The a u t h o r s admit t h e s e p o s s i b i l i t i e s c o u l d n o t be f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t e d . A f u n d a m e n t a l a s s u m p t i o n i n a l l d e n d r o c h r o n o l o g y i s t h a t the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r remains the same over t i m e . I n c r e a s e d sample s i z e s f r om a v a r i e t y of s i t e s tends t o improve d a t a q u a l i t y . 82 D e t a i l e d l a k e l e v e l v a l u e s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h r e e p e r i o d s i n each y e a r , May 21-30, J u l y 11-20, September 21-30 and the t a b l e i s c o n t a i n e d i n Appendix One. The May l e v e l appeared t o p r e s e n t the g r e a t e s t v a r i a n c e i n comparison w i t h the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d 1935-1967 and t h e s e d a t a were p l o t t e d on g r a p h paper (see Appendix One). The Lake A t h a b a s c a l e v e l s appear t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e s i g n i f i c a n c e as an i n d i c a t o r o f s t r e a m f l o w i n the Columbia R i v e r . A c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s between t h e a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d (1928-1968) a t R e v e l s t o k e and t h e s i m u l a t e d May l a k e l e v e l s i n the subsequent y e a r s gave r = 0.52 s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.001 l e v e l . I t was a l s o e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t f o r the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d (1941-1946) r = 0.93 s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.05 l e v e l s i m i l a r l y i n the p e r i o d of h i g h s t r e a m f l o w between 1929 and 1934 g i v e s an r = 0.98 s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.05 l e v e l . Because no time s e r i e s c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s was used, the r e s u l t s o v e r e s t i m a t e the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p . However a p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p can be o f f e r e d . The main c o n t r i b u t o r t o Lake A t h a b a s c a i s the A t h a b a s c a R i v e r w h i c h o r i g i n a t e s i n t h e Rocky Mountains and i s f e d by the Columbia I c e f i e l d , w h i c h a l s o f e e d s t h e Columbia R i v e r . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 30% of the A t h a b a s c a R i v e r r u n o f f a t Lake A t h a b a s c a i s d e r i v e d f r o m Rocky M o u n t a i n snowmelt ( S t o c k t o n , 1971) and t h i s a grees c l o s e l y w i t h the 27% e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e between the Columbia s t r e a m f l o w and L a k a A t h a b a s c a l e v e l s . I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o suggest t h a t i n p e r i o d s o f extreme drought the m o i s t m a r i t i m e a i r masses d e p o s i t most o f the p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n the Rocky Mountains w h i l e i n e x t r e m e l y wet p e r i o d s p r e c i p i t a t i o n f a l l s b o t h i n the R o c k i e s and a l o n g the e n t i r e s t r e t c h of the A t h a b a s c a d r a i n a g e b a s i n . I n "normal" y e a r s p r e c i p i t a t i o n e a s t of the R o c k i e s i s dependent on l o c a l f a c t o r s . C l e a r l y t h i s would make the Lake A t h a b a s c a s i m u l a t e d l a k e l e v e l s a v a l u a b l e i n d i c a t o r of extreme p e r i o d s i n the Columbia b a s i n . The mean and v a r i a n c e of the e n t i r e s e r i e s were compared t o the 1928-1968 p e r i o d . T a b l e 3: Mean and V a r i a n c e of Lake A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s S e r i e s Mean 1928-1968 Mean S e r i e s S.D. 1928-1968 S.D. S i m u l a t e d l e v e l s . Lake A t h a b a s c a (1810-1967) Ft. above s e a level-685.9 685.2 1 .76 1 .058 The 40 y e a r mean i s o n l y s l i g h t l y below the s e r i e s mean, but the v a r i a n c e i n the 40 y e a r p e r i o d i s c o n s i d e r a b l y s m a l l e r , c o n f i r m i n g e a r l i e r s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t Hydro's 40 y e a r p e r i o d i s not r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of l o n g e r term c l i m a t i c r e g i m e s . The g r a p h of s i m u l a t e d l a k e l e v e l s was s u b j e c t e d t o a v i s u a l a n a l y s i s of p e r s i s t e n t a nomalies above or below the mean v a l u e . The p e r i o d p r i o r t o 1850 was i g n o r e d due t o the l i m i t e d s i z e of t r e e - r i n g samples. The d a t a show t h a t s i n c e 84' 1850 t h e r e have been t h r e e anomaly p e r i o d s : T a b l e 4: Lake A t h a b a s c a Anomaly P e r i o d s P e r i o d Charact-e r i-s-t-i c R e l a t i v e D e p a r t u r e 157 y r S.D. R e l a t i v e D e p a r t u r e 40 y r S.D. I 1864-1880 l o w e r l e v e l s -1 .39 -1 .92 I I 1892-1910 h i g h e r l e v e l s + 1.19 + 2.62 I I I 1921-1925 h i g h e r l e v e l s - + 1.17 + 2.59 U s i n g the r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e t e c h n i q u e w i t h the 40 y e a r and the 157 y e a r s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n as d e n o m i n a t o r s , the v a l u e s shown i n T a b l e 4 a r e w e l l w i t h i n t h e range of F r i t t s 1 s u g g e s t i o n s f o r n o r t h w e s t e r n A m e r i c a . The c r i t i c a l p e r i o d s u g g e s t e d by t h i s a n a l y s i s would be the 15 y e a r drought t h a t s t r u c k the r e g i o n between 1864 and 1880 and w h i c h would be about 1.9 t i m e s t h e S.D. o f the 40 year s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d . There i s o n l y p a r t i a l o v e r l a p w i t h the 1864-1875 d r y p e r i o d s u g g ested by P r i t t s (1965) i n h i s s t u d y o f c l i m a t i c a n o m a l i e s i n n o r t h w e s t e r n A m e r i c a . P e y t o Lake Study The t h i r d i n d i c a t i o n of the p e r s i s t e n c e and magnitude of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y was d e r i v e d f r o m a t r e e - r i n g c hrono-l o g y n e a r P e y t o Lake, w h i c h was h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d t o b o t h the August temperature o f the Lake L o u i s e weather s t a t i o n and 85 the August r u n o f f i n the N o r t h Saskatchewan, Surwapta, and M i s t o y a R i v e r s ( P a r k e r , 1971). A sample of c o r e s t a k e n f r o m 17 t r e e s a t an e l e v a t i o n of 6,600 f t . was a n a l y s e d i n terms of r i n g w i d t h and l a t e w o o d d e n s i t y . The la t e w o o d d e n s i t y p r o v i d e d a b e t t e r master t r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g y and t h i s was used f o r c o m p a r i s o n a g a i n s t c l i m a t i c v a r i a b l e s . Latewood d e n s i t y as opposed t o w i d t h tends t o r e f l e c t b e t t e r the g r o w i n g c o n d i t i o n s a t the s h o r t p e r i o d of the y e a r when latewood d e v e l o p s . August r u n o f f and temperature c o r r e l a t e d h i g h l y , r = 0.85 and r = 0.79 r e s p e c t i v e l y and s i g n i f i c a n t a t the 0.001 l e v e l . The August t e m p e r a t u r e s and r u n o f f were c o r r e l a t e d w i t h r = 0.72 s i g n i f i c a n t a t . t h e 0.01 l e v e l ( P a r k e r , 1971). The August r u n o f f i n the r i v e r system i s l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o g l a c i a l m elt r a t h e r t h a n snowpack and summer mel t as i s the case i n the Columbia R i v e r . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s was f u r t h e r t e s t e d i n t h i s s t u d y by c o r r e l a t i n g accumulated p r e c i p i t a t i o n f r om September t o August minus a y e a r l y e v a p o r a t i o n l o s s on the one hand and latewood d e n s i t y on the o t h e r w h i c h gave r = 0.67 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.01 l e v e l ) . Because o f the p r o x i m i t y o f t h e P e y t o G l a c i e r t h e s e d a t a p r i m a r i l y r e f l e c t the August s t r e a m f l o w c o n d i t i o n s i n a r i v e r system f e d by g l a c i a l m e l t w a t e r and f o r t h i s r e a s o n c a u t i o n s h o u l d be e x e r c i s e d i n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e s e d a t a as a r e l e v a n t i n d i c a t i o n of a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w regime i n o t h e r b a s i n s . S u r p r i s i n g l y t h i s c h r o n o l o g y d i s p l a y e d o p p o s i t e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o the f o u r o t h e r s . The mean and v a r i a n c e of t h e whole s e r i e s and the 4 0 y e a r p e r i o d a re shown i n Table 5 and the 40 y e a r mean i s h i g h e r and t h e v a r i a b i l i t y f o r the same p e r i o d was g r e a t e r . T a b l e 5 : Mean and V a r i a n c e P e y t o Lake Chronology S e r i e s 1928-1968 S e r i e s 1928-1968 Mean Mean S.D. S.D. Latewood D e n s i t y 99.6 103.32 23.1 28.9 I n d i c e s - -• F o r the purposes of i d e n t i f y i n g the d u r a t i o n and magnitude of c l i m a t i c a n o m a l i e s the t r e e - r i n g d a t a , e x t e n d i n g back t o 1800, were used t o o b t a i n r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e s . T a b l e 6: Pe y t o Lake Anomaly P e r i o d s R e l a t i v e D e p a r t u r e w i t h P e r i o d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e r i e s - S.D. 40 y r S.D. I 1804-1818 , low f l o w / l o w T -0.96 -0.74 I I 1882-1886 h i g h f l o w / h i g h T +0.98 +0.60 I I I 1928-1942 h i g h f l o w / h i g h T +0.73 +0.42 The r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e s a r e w e l l w i t h i n the range of magnitude and d u r a t i o n o f those observed i n n o r t h w e s t e r n A m e r i c a and c o n s i d e r a b l y s m a l l e r t h a n t h o s e i n the Lake A t h a b a s c a -chronology-. 87 The i n d i c a t o r data were a l s o analysed f o r sequence and r a t e of change i n low, normal and h i g h f l o w s . A thorough a n a l y s i s c o u l d not he c a r r i e d out hut a v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n of the simulated l e v e l s of Lake Athabasca suggests that the t r a n s i t i o n p e r i o d between the three phases v a r i e s from one to t h r e e years and appears independent of the nature or d u r a t i o n of the previous phase. These e x p l o r a t i o n s of the u n c e r t a i n t y of v a r i a n c e i n the Upper Columbia B a s i n show that the 40 year streamflow r e c o r d probably underestimates average annual streamflow and that long term v a r i a b i l i t y i s probably c o n s i d e r a b l y g r e a t e r than t h i s i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d has i n d i c a t e d . T h i s evidence of l o c a l s t a b i l i t y lends support to the t h e s i s of g l o b a l s t a b i l i t y , which dominated the 30 to 40 years before 1970 and was presented i n Chapter Two. I f , as many m e t e o r o l o g i s t s have s t a t e d (Science C o u n c i l , 1975), the past r e c o r d i s the best a v a i l a b l e b a s i s f o r p l a n n i n g f o r e f f e c t s of the f u t u r e c l i m a t e , then c l e a r l y a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e r e c o r d should be used. The d e n d r o c h r o n o l o g i c a l evidence presented should be i n t e r p r e t e d w i t h c a u t i o n and the s t a t i s t i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n between the Lake Athabasca l e v e l s and the Columbia streamflow has p r o b a b l y been overestimated. The worst p o s s i b l e drought that can be i n f e r r e d from the evidence i s three times as long and almost twice the magnitude of the " c r i t i c a l p e r i o d " which forms the present base f o r power g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g . The evidence a l s o suggests that l o n g e r term average streamflow i s l i k e l y to be h i g h e r and that p e r i o d s of h i g h flow of up to 2.5 times the standard deviation of the streamflow s e r i e s have p e r s i s t e d f o r p e r i o d s of up to 15 y e a r s . Obvious areas f o r improving the r e l i a b i l i t y of these analyses w i l l be suggested i n the s e c t i o n d e a l i n g w i t h the f u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n s of u n c e r t a i n t y , but the subsequent s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s w i l l be based on the above s c e n a r i o . U n c e r t a i n t y of Impact Having e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t the 4 0 year streamflow r e c o r d used f o r d e s i g n purposes i s not r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y of the Upper Columbia Basin, and t h a t i n d i c a t o r sources c l o s e by show f l u c t u a t i o n s of 1.9 times the S.D. downwards and 2.5 times the S.D. upward, d u r i n g longer p a r t s of a r e c o n s t r u c t e d r e c o r d , the consequences of prolonged p e r i o d s of drought and i n c r e a s e d p r e c i p i t a t i o n must be examined. Mica Dam The Mica Dam has a nameplate c a p a c i t y of 2600 MW and has an annual average d e s i g n streamflow of 20,510 c f s w i t h a S.D. (standard d e v i a t i o n ) of 2,055 c f s (B. C. Hydro, 1977). The dam's f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y , the minimum annual power p r o d u c t i o n under the lowest f i v e years of recorded streamflows (1941-1946) i s 7,422 x 10 kwh/year or 9-7$ below average d e s i g n flow. Based on t h i s c r i t i c a l p e r i o d , i n which average annual streamflow i s 1 S.D. below d e s i g n streamflow, the dam w i l l r e a c h i t s draw-down l e v e l s , the p o i n t a t which no a c t i v e storage i s l e f t and e l e c t r i c i t y -output becomes p r o p o r t i o n a l to annual streamflow, i n 3 i y e a r s . In subsequent years the p l a n t ' s annual power p r o d u c t i o n i s reduced even f u r t h e r . T h i s c o u l d not be c a l i b r a t e d but some rough c a l c u l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e minimum p r o d u c t i o n may drop a f u r t h e r 5$. Under the Lake Athabasca drought s c e n a r i o , 1864-1880, average annual streamflow i s 1.9 S.D. below d e s i g n streamflow minimum. P r o d u c t i o n would be 6,658 x 10^ kwh/year or 19$ below average d e s i g n product-i o n . Draw-down l e v e l s would be reached i n 21 months, and over the remaining 13-14 years of the drought average p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s would p o s s i b l y be 5$ lower. Under the Lake Athabasca s c e n a r i o the draw-down p e r i o d f o r Mica c o u l d p o s s i b l y be extended another year by u s i n g the storage p r e s e n t l y r e s e r v e d f o r the U n i t e d S t a t e s under the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y . In l i g h t of the c u r r e n t water and p o t e n t i a l power shortages i n the U.S. p o r t i o n of the Columbia R i v e r such a move seems p o l i t i c a l l y i n f e a s i b l e a t p r e s e n t . Under a s c e n a r i o of p e r s i s t e n t l y h i g h streamflow sequences, i n c r e a s e s above the design streamflow w i l l be converted i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y and the system w i l l absorb t h i s reduced thermal power p r o d u c t i o n and the export of power to 90 other u t i l i t i e s . No c a l c u l a t i o n s have been c a r r i e d out, hut Hydro o f f i c i a l s i n d i c a t e d t hat even minor s p i l l a g e seemed u n l i k e l y under these h i g h streamflow sequences' (B. C. Hydro, 1977). Revelstoke Dam The impact on the Revelstoke Dam i s i n the same order of magnitude as Mica. The two are c l o s e l y i n t e r c o n n e c t e d w i t h Mica c a r r y i n g the st o r a g e f o r both r e s e r v o i r s . The Revelstoke Dam has a nameplate c a p a c i t y of 2700 MW and has an average annual design streamflow of 28,830 c f s w i t h an S.D. of 2,708 c f s (B. C. Hydro, 1977). The dam's f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y i s 7420 x 10^ which i s 9.3$ below d e s i g n average and the draw-down p e r i o d i s 3h y e a r s . Under the Lake Athabasca drought s c e n a r i o the average annual streamflow at Revelstoke would be 23,684 c f s and t h i s would produce 6490 x 10^ kwh/yr. or 17.8$ below d e s i g n average. A f t e r 21 months the Mica r e s e r v o i r would reach draw-down l e v e l s and Revelstoke power p r o d u c t i o n would be s o l e l y dependent on streamflow, and average minimum p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s could p o s s i b l y decrease a f u r t h e r 5$ to 23.8$ below d e s i g n p r o d u c t i o n . 9 1 Impact on I n t e g r a t e d S y s t e m The M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams f o r m a b o u t one t h i r d o f t h e t o t a l p l a n n e d e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c component o f t h e g e n e r a t i n g s y s t e m i n t h e l a t e '80's (B.C. H y d r o , 1 9 7 5 ) . B a s e d on p u b l i c documents, t h e t h e r m a l component w i l l c o n s t i t u t e a p p r o x i m a t e l y h a l f t h e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y , a l t h o u g h i t i s u n d e r s t o o d (B.C. E n e r g y C o m m i s s i o n , 1 9 7 7 ; B.C. H y d r o , 1 9 7 7 ) t h a t H y d r o ' s c u r r e n t p l a n s s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e d u c e t h e t h e r m a l component, m a k i n g t h e e n t i r e s y s t e m more s u s c e p t i b l e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . I f t h e Lake A t h a b a s c a d r o u g h t s c e n a r i o r e m a i n s c o n f i n e d t o t h e U p p e r C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n o n l y and t h e r e s t o f t h e s y s t e m p r o d u c e s t h e f i r m e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e 7 , t h e r e s t o f t h e i n t e g r a t e d s y s t e m w o u l d a b s o r b any power l o s s e s t h a t w i l l o c c u r i n t h e pre-draw-down p e r i o d . I n s u b s e q u e n t y e a r s , however, p r o j e c t e d power demands m i g h t o u t s t r i p power s u p p l y . C o n d i t i o n s o f S y s t e m F a i l u r e T h i s s e c t i o n examines t h e i m p a c t o f t h e L a k e A t h a b a s c a d r o u g h t s c e n a r i o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a f f e c t i n g a l l h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s i n B.C. G i v e n t h e p e r v a s i v e n e s s o f c l i m a t i c change and the f a c t t h a t t h e P e a c e and C o l u m b i a B a s i n s a r e f a i r l y c l o s e t h i s seems a more r e a s o n a b l e p o s s i b i l i t y . I n t h e s e s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s e s , t h e e x i s t i n g f i r m e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c and t h e r m a l p l a n t s , t h e f o r e c a s t e d demand l o a d and t h e f i r m e n e r g y m a r g i n a r e r e p r o d u c e d on T a b l e 7, w h i c h i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e t a s k f o r c e r e p o r t " A l t e r n a t i v e s f r o m 1975-1990" (B.C. H y d r o , 1975). "The f i r m e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n on t h e s y s t e m i s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e l o w e s t f i v e y e a r s o f r e c o r d e d s t r e a m f l o w s (1941 t o 1946) r e f e r r e d t o as t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d . " F o r t h e r m a l p l a n t s t h e e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y r a n g e s f r o m 60-80% o f p l a n t c a p a c i t y , d e p e n d i n g on t y p e , s i z e and m a t u r i t y o f t h e u n i t s . I n t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d when s t r e a m f l o w l e v e l s a r e 1.0 S.D. below d e s i g n f l o w s , M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e w o u l d r e a c h draw-down l e v e l s b u t i t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t W i l l i s t o n Lake w o u l d n o t . The c r u c i a l a s s u m p t i o n s i n H y d r o ' s s t u d i e s a r e : The f o r t y y e a r (1928-1968) s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e c l i m a t e i n t h e r e g i o n . The f i v e y e a r c r i t i c a l p e r i o d (1941-1946) i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f l i k e l y minimum s t r e a m f l o w e v e n t s . To d e t e r m i n e t h e e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y u n d e r worse t h a n r e c o r d e d s t r e a m f l o w s i t has b e e n assumed t h a t : - A v e r a g e a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w l e v e l s o f 1.5 and 1.9 S.D. b e l o w d e s i g n s t r e a m f l o w p e r s i s t f o r 15 y e a r s . -. T h e s e r e d u c t i o n s i n s t r e a m f l o w r e s u l t i n u n i f o r m power l o s s e s o f r e s p e c t i v e l y 14% and 19% b e l o w t h e d e s i g n a v e r a g e w h i c h works out t o 5% and 10% b e l o w p r e s e n t f i r m e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t i e s shown i n T a b l e 7-P r e and p o s t draw-down power l o s s e s a r e e q u a l . no R E C O M M E N D E D P L A N TABLE 7:' E N E R G Y C A P A B I L I T Y B A L A N C E — I N T E G R A T E D S Y S T E M B A S E D ON C R I T I C A L PER IOD (In Millions of kwrt) Fiscal Year 75/76. 76/77 77/78 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/8i 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 Firm Energy Capability In-Service / Hydroelectric Plants (S) - Existing 7070 7070 7126 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 7161 - CM. Shrum 12250 12250 12250 12250 12250 12250 12250 12250 12250 12250 13904 14457 14457 144S7 144S7 14457 - Kootenay Cunal 583 2088 2330 2330 2330 2330 2330 . 2330 2330 2220 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 - Mica - 2386 6040 6740 6740 6740 6740 6740 6740 6967 7422 7422 7422 7422 7422 7422 - Site One - - - - 1881 3222 32S0 3250 3250 3250 3659 3793 3793 3793 3793 3793 - Seven Hllo - - - - 2458 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2610 2675 - Revelstoke - - - - - - 3553 6872 6894 7069 7420 7420 7420 7420 7420 .7420 Sub t o t a l 19903 23794 27746 28481 30362 34161 37894 41213 41235 41527 44173 44860 . 44860 44860 44860 44925 Thermal-electric Plants (6) (excluding gas turbines) - Burrard 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 - Hat Creek • - - - - - - . - 711 5745 10452 12624 18050 23500 29086 31042 31730 - Eost Kootenay - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ 3800 7910 Sub tota l 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 6231 11265 15972 18144 23570 29020 34606 40362 45160 Gas Turbines (7) 1117 1226 1226 1476 1476 1476 1805 2462 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 Total Firm Energy Capability 26540 30540 34492 35477 37358 41157 45219 49906 55290 60289 65107 71220 76670 82256 88012 92875 forecast E l e c t r i c Energy Demand 23400 26200 29200 32600 36500 40100 44200 48700 53300 58300 63100 68600 74S00 80200 86200 92600 Firm Energy Margin 3140 4340 5292 2877 858 1057 1019 1206 1990 1989 2007 2620 2170 2056 1812 275 Notes: (1) City of Rcvclstoko Integrated i n 1977/78 adding 56 Cwh of hydroelectric energy. (2) North Coast area integrated i n 1978/79 adding 3S Cwh of hydroelectric and 250 Gwh of gas turbine energy. (3) Kootenay Diversion added i n 1984/85 increasing Mica by 682 Cwh and Rcvclstoko by 526 Cwh and docrcasing Kootenay Canal by 333 Cwh, (4) McGregor Diversion added i n 1985/86 increasing CM. Shrum by 2207 Cwh and Site One by S43 Gwh. (5) Hydroelectric energy based on average annual energy available during c r i t i c a l period. (6) Thermal-electric energy excluding gas turbine energy based on annual capacity factors allowing for maintenance and forced outages. (7) Gas turbine energy based on averago requirement during c r i t i c a l period. Prom: "Alternatives from 1975-1990", B.C. Hydro, 1975. Table 8: Energy capability balance under 5% and 10% reductions 0~\ in hydroelectric firm energy capability (in millions of kwh). Fiscal Year 75/76 76/77 77/78 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 A Hydroelectric firm energy capability 19903 23794 27746 28481 30362 34161 37894 41213 41235 41527 44173 44860 44860 44860 44860 44925 B Thermal F.E.C. 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 5520 6231 11265 15972 18144 23570 29020 34606 40362 45160 C Gas turbines F.E.C. 1117 1226 1226 1476 1476 1476 1805 2462 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 2790 D Total firm energy capability 26540 30540 34492 35477 37358 41157 45219 49906 55290 60289 65107 71220 76670 82256 88012 92875 E Forecast electric enfergy demand 23400 26200 29200 32600 36500 40100 44200 43700 53300 58300 63100 68600 74500 80200 86200 92600 F Firm energy margin (now) 3140 4340 5292 2877 858 1057 1019 1206 1990 1989 2007 2620 2170 2056 1812 275 G F.E.M. at -5% in Hydro F.E.C. 2145 3151 3905 1453 -660 -651 -875 -854 -71 -87 -201 . +377 -73 -187 -431 -1971 H F.E.M. at -10% in Hydro F.E.C. 1150 1961 2518 29 -2178 -2359 -2770 -2915 -2133 -2163 -2410 -1866 -2316 -2430 -2674 -4217 I F / E % 13.4 16.5 18.1 8.8 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.4 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.9 K G / E % (-5%) 9.1 12.0 13.3 4.4 -1.8 -1.6 -1.9 -1.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 +0.5 -0.09 -0.2 -0.5 -2.1 L H / E % (-10%) 4.9 7.4 8.6 0.08 -5.9 -5.8 -6.2 -5.9 * -4.0 -3.7 -3.S -2.7 -3.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.5 T a b l e 8 shows the r e s u l t s of p r o l o n g e d d r o u g h t s w i t h s t r e a m f l o w s o f 1 .5 and 1.9 t i m e s t h e i r s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s . A t 5% the f i r m energy m a r g i n becomes n e g a t i v e a f t e r 1979 and s t a y s m a r g i n a l l y so up t o 1990. A t 10% t h e margin a l s o becomes n e g a t i v e a f t e r 1979, but i t s magnitude g e n e r a l l y exceeds t h a t of the p o s i t i v e m a r g in. The energy s h o r t f a l l s a re a l s o shown as p e r c e n t a g e s of p r o j e c t e d demands. A t the 5% l e v e l demand w i l l have t o be c u t between 0.09 and 2.1% but a t the 10% l e v e l t h i s i n c r e a s e s f r o m 2 .7% t o 6.2%. These s h o r t a g e s would u n d o u b t e d l y l e a d t o demand c u r t a i l m e n t and brown outs beyond 1980. To B.C. Hydro t h e s e s h o r t a g e s r e p r e s e n t l o s t revenue i n t h e range o f $1.4 t o $84 m i l l i o n p e r annum i n 1976 d o l l a r s a t 20 p e r kwh. Hydro's a b i l i t y t o pay o f f deb t s would be reduced and t h i s might l e a d t o f u r t h e r s h o r t term b o r r o w i n g . T h i s i n t u r n would be r e f l e c t e d i n h i g h e r charges t o the consumer i n subsequent y e a r s . The impact on the B.C. economy would be more wide r a n g i n g . Resource e x t r a c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s may be f o r c e d t o c l o s e down f o r s u b s t a n t i a l p e r i o d s of t i m e . Unemployment would r e s u l t and p r o v i n c i a l e a r n i n g s and p u b l i c s p e n d i n g power would be a f f e c t e d . The a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s t o the h y d r o e l e c t r i c system shows t h a t a r e t u r n of some of the d r y p e r i o d s t h a t p e r s i s t e d f o r 5 t o 20 y e a r s i n n o r t h w e s t e r n A m e r i c a i n the 18th and 19th c e n t u r i e s would s e r i o u s l y 96 a f f e c t h y d r o e l e c t r i c output. These l o s s e s could not he compensated f o r by c u r r e n t l y planned thermal c a p a c i t y , and f o r the next 15 years cutbacks i n demand up to 6% are foreseen. Absence of design plans beyond 1990 does not a l l o w the a n a l y s i s to be extended. Two notes of c a u t i o n , f i r s t l y , the demand p r o j e c t i o n s are based on the unusual "normal c l i m a t i c p e r i o d " , and although e l e c t r i c i t y i s l e s s s e n s i t i v e to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y than f u e l s e x t e n s i v e l y used i n space-heating, demand l e v e l s might be m a r g i n a l l y d i f f e r e n t . Secondly, c a l c u l a t i o n s of post draw-down production were not undertaken, but the Peace R i v e r r e s e r v o i r s would reach t h i s p o i n t i n 2-J- - 3 years and the Columbia r e s e r v o i r s i n 21 months. This assumption tends to underestimate the probable production l o s s e s i n hydro-e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n by approximately 5$ of design average. U n c e r t a i n t y of R i s k V a l u a t i o n No s p e c i f i c analyses could be c a r r i e d out to reduce the u n c e r t a i n t y . Prom the s t a t e d o b j e c t i v e to maintain a p o s i t i v e energy margin (B.C. Hydro, 1975) i t can be deduced that u n i n t e r r u p t e d power supply i s important to the a u t h o r i t y . The f a c t that the a u t h o r i t y has no customers on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s i s an expression of f a i t h i n i t s generation planning procedure. The a u t h o r i t y h i g h l y values supply s e c u r i t y and t h i s forms grounds to speculate that i t 97 w o u l d be p r e p a r e d t o p a y a h i g h p r i c e f o r c o n t i n u e d s e c u r i t y . However t h i s whole a r e a s h o u l d be s u b j e c t o f f u r t h e r s t u d i e s . E . F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s The s y s t e m i d e n t i f i c a t i o n h as p r o v i d e d u s w i t h t h e s o c i e t a l c o n t e x t o f t h e l e a d i n s t i t u t i o n and t h e i d e n t i f i -c a t i o n and e x p l o r a t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y have i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t t h e p r e s e n t p l a n n i n g b a s e i g n o r e s s i g n i f i c a n t c l i m a t i c a n o m a l i e s w h i c h have o c c u r r e d i n t h e r e c e n t p a s t . The p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t h e p o s s i b l e r a n g e o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a t i o n s and t h e i r i m p a c t on t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m r e v e a l e d t h a t t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f c r i t i c a l f a i l u r e a r e s u c h t h a t t h e s e c l i m a t i c a b e r r a t i o n s must be p a r t o f t h e p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y and t h e f o l l o w i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e a c t i o n s t h a t m i g h t be c o n s i d e r e d . O p e r a t i o n a l P l a n s - I n c r e a s e t h e l i v e s t o r a g e a t M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e up t o t h e maximum s a f e l e v e l s r e l a t i v e t o maximum f l o o d e v e n t s . T h i s w i l l e x t e n d t h e draw-down p e r i o d , p r o v i d i n g i n c r e a s e d l e a d t i m e f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f demand c u r t a i l m e n t and t h e r m a l r e s e r v e c a p a c i t y u t i l i s a t i o n . T h i s o p t i o n m i g h t o n l y p r o v i d e a m a r g i n a l e x t e n s i o n o f l e a d t i m e . F u r t h e r t i m e c a n a l s o be bought by i n i t i a t i n g demand c u r t a i l m e n t at' t h e end o f 98 t h e f i r s t o r t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e s e c o n d y e a r o f a s e r i o u s d r o u g h t . T h i s w o u l d p u s h draw-down l e v e l s f u r t h e r away. G i v e n t h e s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s e s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r and t h e p o s s i b l e d u r a t i o n o f t h e d r o u g h t b o t h o p t i o n s p r o v i d e o n l y a p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n . C o n t i n g e n c y P l a n s D e v e l o p demand c u r t a i l m e n t p r o c e d u r e s , s p e c i f y i n g methods, t a r g e t u s e r s and c o n d i t i o n s . M ethods o f c u r t a i l m e n t c o u l d be p r i c i n g , r a t i o n i n g o r v o l u n t a r y r e s t r a i n t . T a r g e t u s e r s c o u l d be r e s i d e n t i a l , i n d u s t r i a l o r c o m m e r c i a l c o n s u m e r s , e i t h e r a s a u n i f i e d c l a s s o r d i f f e r e n t i a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o q u a n t i t i e s consumed. The c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h i m p l e m e n t a t i o n w o u l d s t a r t s h o u l d i n d i c a t e t h e c r i t i c a l r e s e r v o i r l e v e l s and number o f y e a r s i n d r o u g h t . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t i n t h e Lake A t h a b a s c a d r o u g h t c u r t a i l m e n t would s t a r t no l a t e r t h a n t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e s e c o n d y e a r . D e v e l o p t h e r m a l r e s e r v e c a p a c i t y u t i l i s a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s . T h i s c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n i s b a s e d on t h e p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t a s s u m p t i o n t h a t a t h e r m a l r e s e r v e w i l l be c r e a t e d . C o n d i t i o n s and q u a n t i t i e s u s e d s h o u l d be s p e c i f i e d . D e s i g n C r i t e r i a and P o l i c y A d j u s t m e n t s C r e a t i o n and m a i n t e n a n c e o f a t h e r m a l r e s e r v e c a p a c i t y o f b e t w e e n 5$ and 10$ o f p r e s e n t f o r e c a s t e d f i r m h y d r o -e l e c t r i c c a p a b i l i t y . • The r e s e r v e w o u l d have t o i n c r e a s e 99 over time i n p r o p o r t i o n t o the f i r m h y d r o e l e c t r i c energy i n o r d e r t o w i t h s t a n d p r o l o n g e d d r o u g h t s a t 1.5 and 1.9 times the S.D. below p r e s e n t d e s i g n f l o w s . I n t r o d u c e an energy c o n s e r v a t i o n program a i m i n g t o c u r t a i l the f o r e c a s t e d demands (Hydro, 1975) between 2% and 6%, i n o r d e r t o cope w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of t h e 1864-1880 d r o u g h t . C o n t r a c t e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s up t o 6% of the t o t a l a n t i c i p a t e d e l e c t r i c i t y consumption. R e v i s e h y d r o e l e c t r i c f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y based on c r i t i c a l p e r i o d 1864-1880. - A d j u s t d e s i g n o f f u t u r e hydro dams t o accommodate g r e a t e r l i v e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y . Only r e s e r v o i r s i n the o r d e r of magnitude of W i l l i s t o n Lake might p r o v i d e a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n l e a d t ime d u r i n g d r o u g h t . E x p l o r a t o r y A c t i o n s T h i s s t u d y has a t t e m p t e d to i n d i c a t e the bounds of c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s . F u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n s f o c u s on n a r r o w i n g t h e s e bounds of u n c e r t a i n t y , u l t i m a t e l y s t r i v i n g towards an u n d e r s t a n d i n g and an a b i l i t y t o p r e d i c t c l i m a t i c b e h a v i o u r . 1. U n c e r t a i n t y o f C l i m a t i c System S t r u c t u r e - A s e r i e s of j o i n t e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s w i t h governmental, and academic i n s t i t u t i o n s are p r o posed. Hydro would p r o v i d e f u n d i n g f o r 100 f u n d a m e n t a l r e s e a r c h and t h e a g e n c i e s w o u l d p r o v i d e s t a f f , f a c i l i t i e s and exchange i n f o r m -a t i o n w i t h H y d r o i n s e m i n a r o r r e p o r t f o r m a t . T h i s w i l l p e r m i t t h e a g e n c y t o be a b r e a s t o f r e l e v a n t c l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h and w o u l d e n a b l e i t t o e n c o u r a g e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . J o i n t f u n d i n g w i t h o t h e r u t i l i t i e s m i g h t a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d . 2. U n c e r t a i n t y o f V a r i a n c e - The e x t e n s i o n o f t h e s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s i n t h e P e a c e and C o l u m b i a r i v e r s , by means o f t r e e - r i n g s o r o t h e r " p r o x y " methods. S e d i m e n t c o r e s i n r i v e r beds m i g h t i m p r o v e knowledge a b o u t f l o o d s . - The e x t e n d e d r e c o r d t o f o r m t h e b a s i s o f a r e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d , maximum a n n u a l f l o w s and t h e l o n g t e r m mean s t r e a m f l o w . The s e q u e n c e o f h i g h and low f l o w s and t h e l e a d t i m e s w i l l a l s o p r o v i d e more d e t a i l e d i n f o r m -a t i o n r e l a t i v e t o t h e s p e e d t h a t a d a p t i v e demand c u r t a i l m e n t and r e s e r v e c a p a c i t y u t i l i s a t i o n m i g h t have t o be i m p l e m e n t e d . - The l o n g e r r e c o r d s c a n p r o v i d e a s o u n d e r b a s i s f o r p r o b a b i l i t y a n a l y s i s o f r e c u r r e n c e o f d r o u g h t s and f l o o d s . 101 Uncertainty of Impact The impact of climatic v a r i a b i l i t y on the energy c a p a b i l i t y should be tested with B.C. Hydro's unpublished information about forecasted demand and thermal generation. - Upon completing the extension of the instrumental record, the c r i t i c a l period should be redefined, new maximum and minimum operating l e v e l s s p e c i f i e d , and new firm energy c a p a b i l i t y balances drawn up, and the construction program revised. The f e a s i b i l i t y of i n s t a l l i n g a d d i t i o n a l generators, i n the l i g h t of higher long term means and variance should be examined. The extended temperature series should form the basis of demand s e n s i t i v i t y analyses, which w i l l be integrated i n the new energy c a p a b i l i t y balance. Uncertainty of Risk Valuation - An assessment of r i s k s from c e r t a i n climatic scenarios occurring and the costs of avoiding these r i s k s should be made on the basis of the improved data base. This should be subject to p o l i t i c a l and public reaction to obtain an impression of the price people are w i l l i n g to pay for a climate-proof e l e c t r i c i t y system. 102 M o n i t o r i n g P l a n s T h i s i s c u r r e n t l y the most de v e l o p e d component w i t h r e s p e c t t o the h y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l system of the Upper Columbia B a s i n . A network of 28 s t r e a m f l o w gauges, 38 snow cour s e s t a t i o n s and 9 m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s t a t i o n s c o v e r the a r e a and i n f o r m a t i o n i s c o n s t a n t l y f e d i n t o t h e U.B.C. f l o w model p r e d i c t i n g d a i l y r u n o f f f o r p e r i o d s of up t o one. y e a r . T h i s m o n i t o r i n g program s h o u l d be c o n t i n u e d . I n a d d i t i o n , the a u t h o r i t y s h o u l d keep a b r e a s t of knowledge about the g l o b a l c l i m a t e . T h i s i s b e s t under-t a k e n t h r o u g h c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h g o v e r n m e n t a l and academic i n s t i t u t i o n s . As o u t l i n e d e a r l i e r , the e x t e n t of v a r i a b i l i t y and g l o b a l t e m p e r a t u r e s and o c e a n i c t e m p e r a t u r e t r e n d s would be p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t . P.. E v a l u a t i o n The a c t i o n s s u g g e s t e d above are a mere l i s t i n g ; some of them are m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e a l t h o u g h most a r e n o t . The energy c o n s e r v a t i o n and p l a n n e d r e s e r v e c a p a c i t i e s are p r o b a b l y t h e most e f f e c t i v e means of p r o v i d i n g power s h o r t a g e s i n a p r o l o n g e d d r o u g h t . I n c r e a s e d l i v e s t o r a g e has o n l y a m a r g i n a l p o s i t i v e i m p a c t . I f the p a s t i s the b e s t b a s i s f o r p l a n n i n g the f u t u r e c l e a r l y t h e e x t e n s i o n o f s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s i n t h e Peace and Columbia b a s i n s s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n i m m e d i a t e l y . An e v a l u a t i o n i n terms of r e s o u r c e 103 a v a i l a b i l i t y and c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n t o s e l e c t t h e most s u i t a b l e s e t o f a c t i o n s t o c o m p r i s e t h e commitment p a c k a g e . W i t h i n t h i s p r o j e c t l i m i t e d t i m e and r e s o u r c e s p r e v e n t e d s u c h an e v a l u a t i o n b e i n g u n d e r t a k e n . G-. D e v e l o p m e n t o f a Commitment P a c k a g e Upon t h e b a s i s o f t h e e v a l u a t i o n a commitment p a c k a g e would be f o r m u l a t e d and i m p l e m e n t e d . C l e a r l y t h i s p a c k a g e i s s u b j e c t t o r e v i e w , p r o b a b l y on an a n n u a l b a s i s o r w i t h r e l e v a n t new i n f o r m a t i o n s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e d u c i n g t h e i d e n t i f i e d u n c e r t a i n t i e s . The make up o f t h e p a c k a g e i s e x p e c t e d t o change o v e r t i m e . The f i r s t commitment p a c k a g e i s b i a s e d t o w a r d s e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n w i t h a t t e m p t s t o r e c o n s t r u c t c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y . H a t e r commitment p a c k a g e s a r e a n t i c i p a t e d t o be more o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s o p e r a t i o n a l and c o n t i n g e n c y a c t i o n s w i t h t h e e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i o n s m o ving t o w a r d s t h e p r e d i c t i v e s p h e r e o f c l i m a t o l o g y . I f p r e d i c t i o n i m p r o v e s , t h e o p e r a t i o n a l and c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s c a n be r e v i e w e d i n c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e n a r r o w e r bounds o f u n c e r t a i n t y , and a more f i n e l y t u n e d and more e f f i c i e n t e n e r g y s y s t e m w i l l r e s u l t . The c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r o f t h i s t h e s i s i n c l u d e s a recommended commitment p a c k a g e t h a t can. be j u s t i f i e d p r e s e n t l y w i t h o u t t h e b e n e f i t o f a t h o r o u g h e v a l u a t i o n . The recommended p a c k a g e s u g g e s t s t h e immediate d e v e l o p m e n t and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f an e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n p r o g r a m , t h e c o n t r a c t i n g o f power on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s t o new m a j o r i n d u s t r i a l c u s t o m e r s , t h e i m m e d i a t e e x t e n s i o n o f s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s on t h e P e a c e and C o l u m b i a R i v e r s and t h e m o n i t o r i n g o f r e s e a r c h . 105 C h a p t e r F i v e SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS T h i s s t u d y has a t t e m p t e d t o f o r m u l a t e a p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y on t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i n g c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e i n t e g r a t e d B.C. s y s t e m i n g e n e r a l and M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams i n p a r t i c u l a r . I t i s s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s d e v e l o p e d has a wide a p p l i c a t i o n t o o t h e r s y s t e m s w h i c h a r e i m p a c t e d by c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y and has a l s o some r e l e v a n c e i n o t h e r p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s e s w h i c h d e r i v e a s u b s t a n t i a l i n p u t f r o m a r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g s c i e n t i f i c d i s c i p l i n e . E l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e s e g e n e r a l o b s e r v a t i o n s w i l l p r e c e d e t h e c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e c a s e s t u d y . Use o f D a t a f r o m t h e N a t u r a l S c i e n c e s The a p p l i c a t i o n o f d a t a f r o m d e v e l o p i n g d i s c i p l i n e s i n t h e n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s t o p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m s has been u n n e c e s s a r i l y l i m i t e d . The s c i e n t i f i c community has o f t e n been r e l u c t a n t t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g b e c a u s e f i n d i n g s and c o n c l u s i o n s were o f t e n s u b j e c t t o 106 q u a l i f i c a t i o n s w h i c h d e c i s i o n makers have t e n d e d t o i g n o r e i n t h e i r q u e s t f o r c e r t a i n t y . Now t h a t u n c e r t a i n t y i s b e c o m i n g an a c c e p t e d v a r i a b l e i n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , a new common g r o u n d f o r m u t u a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g has opened up. The p a s t u s e o f g e o p h y s i c a l d a t a may be compared t o t h e u s e o f a random 40 y e a r s n a p s h o t o f c l i m a t i c h i s t o r y f o r l o n g t e r m h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n n i n g p u r p o s e s . I n r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e dynamic d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e " s t a t e o f t h e a r t " i n s c i e n c e , any p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s w h i c h d e r i v e s a m a j o r i n p u t ' f o r t h e n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s , s h o u l d e v o l v e o n g o i n g l i n k a g e s w i t h r e l e v a n t s e c t o r s o f t h e s c i e n t i f i c community i n o r d e r t o c o n t i n u a l l y u p d a t e t h e bounds o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t y stemming f r o m i t s m a j o r a s s u m p t i o n s . The f u n d i n g o f j o i n t e x p l o r a t i o n s o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n s y s t e m s o u t s i d e t h e a g e n c y ' s i m m e d i ate s p h e r e o f c o n t r o l seems a v i a b l e o p t i o n . I n t h i s s t u d y , f o r i n s t a n c e , i t i s recommended t h a t B.C. H y d r o m o n i t o r s r e s e a r c h i n c l i m a t i c change and a t t e m p t s t o f o s t e r a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f h i s t o r i c c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n B.C. P l a n n i n g a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o f i s h e r i e s , w a t e r q u a l i t y , n u c l e a r e n e r g y d e v e l o p -ment and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s on A r c t i c e c o s y s t e m s w o u l d seem p r i m e a r e a s o f o r g a n i z i n g s i m i l a r i n t e r a c t i o n between s c i e n t i f i c c o m m u n i t i e s and t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r s . 107 P l a n n i n g f o r C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y T h i s s t u d y has c o n c e n t r a t e d on p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e f i e l d o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n , b u t i n o t h e r a r e a s o f e n e r g y d e v e l o p m e n t , a g r i c u l t u r a l and w a t e r s u p p l y d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n n i n g , s i m i l a r p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s e s s h o u l d be i n i t i a t e d . V i r t u a l l y a l l p l a n n i n g i n t h e s e a r e a s has p r o c e e d e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e u n u s u a l c l i m a t i c r e g i m e t h a t p r e v a i l e d i n t h e t h i r t y t o f o r t y y e a r s p r i o r t o 1970, and t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f i n c r e a s e d v a r i a b i l i t y a r e f o r m i d a b l e . The c h a n g i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l f o r t u n e s o f v a r i o u s r e g i o n s o f t h e w o r l d i s a m a t t e r o f l i f e and d e a t h f o r h u n d r e d s o f m i l l i o n s and t h e p o t e n t i a l p o l i t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s s h i f t i n g b a l a n c e has p r o mpted D r . K i s s i n g e r t o c a l l f o r a U n i t e d N a t i o n s c o n f e r e n c e on c l i m a t i c c h a n g e . S i m i l a r p r o b l e m s a r i s e i n e n e r g y d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n n i n g w h i c h i s l a r g e l y b a s e d on an a s s u m p t i o n o f a r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e c l i m a t i c r e g i m e . P l u c t u a t i o n s s u c h a s t h i s w i n t e r i n E a s t e r n N o r t h A m e r i c a c a n n o t be accommodated w i t h o u t s y s t e m f a i l u r e . The d i r e c t i m p a c t s o f s c h o o l c l o s u r e s , unemployment and h i g h e r f u e l b i l l s h ave been e s t i m a t e d t o r e d u c e p u b l i c s p e n d i n g power by between $3 and $8 b i l l i o n . I n a l o n g e r t i m e p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e s t a b l e and r e l a t i v e l y m i l d c l i m a t i c r e g i m e has c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f o s s i l f u e l s f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p u r p o s e s . Cheap t r a n s p o r t a t i o n has b een m a j o r d e t e r m i n a n t 188 of the a u t o m o b i l e o r i e n t e d u r ban s t r u c t u r e t h a t has e v o l v e d . The g r a d u a l d e c l i n e i n f o s s i l f u e l s i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h a d v e r s e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s would r a p i d l y make t h e s e urban systems unworkable as f o s s i l f u e l s became d i v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r a l and space h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s . As a f o r e w a r n i n g of f o s s i l f u e l d i v e r s i o n p roblems, some o b s e r v e r s b e l i e v e t h i s s p r i n g might see the f i r s t g a s o l i n e s h o r t a g e as a r e s u l t of a c l i m a t i c a l l y i n d u c e d d i v e r s i o n of r e f i n i n g c a p a c i t y t o home h e a t i n g o i l d u r i n g the r e c e n t c o l d s p e l l ( E conomist, 1977). The same message o f system f a i l u r e i s g a i n e d i n the a r e a of w a t e r s u p p l y . R a t i o n i n g i s a l r e a d y e x e r c i s e d i n p a r t s of C a l i f o r n i a and s e r i o u s c u r t a i l m e n t i n the Okanagan i s c o n s i d e r e d . These examples of the consequences o f i n c r e a s e d c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y s e r v e t o i l l u s t r a t e the u r g e n t need t o i n c o r p o r a t e c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y as a f a c t o r i n t h e p l a n n i n g of energy, a g r i c u l t u r e , w a t e r s u p p l y and i n d e e d u r ban development. C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y and H y d r o e l e c t r i c G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s s t u d y have been: 1. To a s s e s s the impact of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y on the g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y o f the M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams p r o j e c t s and o t h e r components 109 o f B.C. H y d r o ' s i n t e g r a t e d power g e n e r a t i o n s y s t e m . 2. To d e v e l o p a p l a n n i n g r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . A s u r v e y o f c l i m a t i c change l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l e d t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y e x i s t s a b o u t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c l i m a t i c s y s t e m , t h e c a u s e s o f c l i m a t i c change, and t h e f u t u r e s t a t e s o f t h e g l o b a l ' c l i m a t i c s y s t e m . However, c l i m a t o l o g i s t s seemed t.o a g r e e f i r s t l y , t h a t t h e t h i r t y t o f o r t y y e a r s p r i o r t o 1970 were c h a r a c t e r i s e d by a n u n p r e c e d e n t e d warmth and s t a b i l i t y and s e c o n d l y , t h a t a more u s u a l b u t more v a r i a b l e c l i m a t i c r e g i m e , p o s s i b l y m o d i f i e d by human a c t i v i t i e s , w i l l once a g a i n g o v e r n t h e w o r l d . The l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t e d t h a t most p l a n n e r s i n v o l v e d i n a g r i c u l t u r a l , e n e r g y and w a t e r s u p p l y d e v e l o p m e n t o p e r a t e d i n v i r t u a l i s o l a t i o n o f c l i m a t i c k n owledge beyond t h a t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e " n o r m a l " c l i m a t i c p e r i o d p r e c e d i n g 1970. To be r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e s e p r o b l e m s t h e p l a n n i n g a p p r o a c h t o be d e v e l o p e d would have t o : a) be c a p a b l e o f i d e n t i f y i n g and m a n aging f o u r c l i m a t i c u n c e r t a i n t i e s ( u n c e r t a i n t y o f s y s t e m , . s t r u c t u r e , v a r i a n c e , i m p a c t and r i s k e v a l u a t i o n ) ; b) f o s t e r i n t e r a c t i o n between c l i m a t o l o g i s t s and managers o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m ; c) be r e s p o n s i v e t o B.C. H y d r o ' s o n g o i n g commitment t o make d e c i s i o n s a b o u t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t and o p e r a t i o n o f g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , i n o r d e r t o meet i t s o b j e c t i v e o f g u a r a n t e e d power s u p p l i e s . On t h e s e g r o u n d s f o u r p l a n n i n g / d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s e s u n d e r u n c e r t a i n t y were r e v i e w e d , b u t a l l assumed t o t a l o r p a r t i a l c o n t r o l o f t h e s y s t e m p r e s e n t i n g t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s . The c l i m a t i c s y s t e m , on t h e o t h e r hand, has a c o n t r o l l i n g i n f l u e n c e o v e r many l i f e s u p p o r t s y s t e m s and i s , as y e t , immune t o - c o n s c i o u s s t e e r i n g by human i n t e r v e n t i o n . F o r t h i s r e a s o n an i t e r a t i v e p l a n n i n g model u s i n g components o f t h e f o u r a p p r o a c h e s was d e v e l o p e d . The p l a n n i n g model r e c o g n i s e s t h e f o l l o w i n g p h a s e s : P r o b l e m R e c o g n i t i o n S y s t e m I d e n t i f i c a t i o n I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y E x p l o r a t i o n o f U n c e r t a i n t y F o r m u l a t i o n o f A l t e r n a t i v e s D e velopment o f a Commitment P a c k a g e I t i s a c y c l i c a l p r o c e s s i n w h i c h t h e a n a l y s t i s e x p e c t e d t o move " f o r w a r d and b a c k w a r d " . The c a s e s t u d y p r o v i d e s an a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s m o d e l . The p r o b l e m i s t h e i n a d e q u a c y o f B.C. H y d r o ' s r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . I n c r e a s e d v a r i a b i l i t y w i l l a f f e c t t h e management o f t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams, and t h e 111 c o n s t r u c t i o n and management of o t h e r components of the i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i o n system. A l l g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g i s p r e s e n t l y p r e d i c a t e d on a f o r t y y e a r s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d (1928-1968). Minimum h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i s based on t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d i n the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d (1941-1946), a r e l a t i v e l y d r y e p i s o d e when s t r e a m f l o w was a p p r o x i m a t e l y 10$ below "normal". Any c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h would exceed t h i s event i n magnitude and d u r a t i o n would c o n s t i t u t e an unplanned s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h r e s e r v o i r draw-down l e v e l s would be r e a c h e d and a n n u a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c output would become s o l e l y dependent on a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w . An a n a l y s i s o f p r e c i p i t a t i o n and t e m p e r a t u r e s e n s i t i v e c h r o n o l o g i e s of t r e e - r i n g i n d i c e s a t B a n f f , J a s p e r , W i l l i a m s Lake and Lake A t h a b a s c a i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e mean and s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f the t r e e - r i n g i n d i c e s were r e s p e c t i v e l y l o w e r and s m a l l e r f o r f o r t y y e a r s i n the 1900's t h a n f o r the e n t i r e s e r i e s . Some c h r o n o l o g i e s d a t e d back t o 1700 A.D. and t h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d r e p r e s e n t s a r e l a t i v e l y d r y p e r i o d w i t h l i t t l e v a r i a b i l i t y , a c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i s s u p p o r t e d by o t h e r s o u r c e s o f l i t e r a t u r e . There i s a l s o e v i d e n c e o f . a drought t w i c e the magnitude and t h r e e t i m e s t h e d u r a t i o n o f the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d t h a t might have s t r u c k the Rocky Mountains between 1864 and 1880. The l i k e l i h o o d of t h i s event has p o s s i b l y been o v e r e s t i m a t e d , because the s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s used have not a d e q u a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f the c o r r e l a t i o n between Lake 1'12 Athabasca l e v e l s and Columbia streamflow. Developing a s c e n a r i o i n which a l l h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s would be s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a f f e c t e d by t h i s so c a l l e d Lake Athabasca drought, average streamflow and average e l e c t r i c i t y output would f a l l approximately 19% below the average d e s i g n flow. T h i s would r e s u l t i n average annual cuts of between 2% and 6% of the f o r e c a s t e d demand loads (B.C. Hydro, 1975). These l o s s e s would c o s t B.C. Hydro up to a maximum of $84 m i l l i o n per annum (based on 1976 $ a t 20 per kwh) i n revenue w i t h more severe i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the B.C. economy such as l a y o f f s , reduced p r o v i n c i a l earnings and p u b l i c spending. T h i s p i c t u r e i s c o n s e r v a t i v e , c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t these f i g u r e s are averages, and that once a l l r e s e r v o i r s r e a c h draw-down l e v e l s ( a f t e r a maximum of 3 y e a r s ) , power p r o d u c t i o n may be cut even f u r t h e r i n extremely d r y y e a r s . On the p o s i t i v e s i d e the t r e e - r i n g i n d i c a t o r s suggest h i g h e r average streamflows w i t h many p e r i o d s of h i g h p r e c i p i t a t i o n and streamflow l e v e l s approximately 25% above the d e s i g n f l o w of the Columbia p e r s i s t i n g f o r p e r i o d s of up to ten y e a r s . The s e n s i t i v i t y of the h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i n g system to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s c o n s i d e r a b l e once the s t a b i l i t y of the f o r t y year streamflow r e c o r d i s s u b s t i t u t e d w i t h a range of v a r i a b i l i t y suggested by the t r e e - r i n g r e c o r d s . 11-3 A number of p o l i c y o p t i o n s have been f o r m u l a t e d ; t h e y f a l l i n t o s i x c a t e g o r i e s : o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s , c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s , d e s i g n and p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t s , e x p l o r a t i o n s of u n c e r t a i n t y o f system s t r u c t u r e , v a r i a n c e and i m p a c t , and m o n i t o r i n g p l a n s . An adequate e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e s e o p t i o n s proved i m p o s s i b l e w i t h i n the time c o n s t r a i n t s of t h i s s t u d y , but the f o l l o w i n g commitment package can n e v e r t h e l e s s be recommended. E x p l o r a t i o n s o f U n c e r t a i n t y The s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s o f t h e Columbia and Peace R i v e r B a s i n s s h o u l d be extended by means of t r e e - r i n g a n a l y s i s . C l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h i n t o h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n B.C. s h o u l d be sponsored and the programs of o t h e r s s h o u l d be m o n i t o r e d c a r e f u l l y . P o l i c y Adjustments An energy c o n s e r v a t i o n program s h o u l d be d e v e l o p e d and implemented. I t s h o u l d aim t o c u r t a i l f o r e c a s t e d demand by 6$ by 1980, i n o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n a p o s i t i v e energy margin even under the Lake A t h a b a s c a drought s c e n a r i o . P u t u r e power c o n t r a c t s w i t h major i n d u s t r i a l u s e r s s h o u l d be on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s . A l l t h e s e a c t i o n s a r e r e l a t i v e l y c heap and r e v e r s i b l e . S h o u l d t h e e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n p r o g r a m l e a d t o a s u r p l u s o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c e n e r g y b e i n g p r o d u c e d i n good y e a r s , t h i s c a n c o n t i n u e t o be s o l d t o o t h e r u t i l i t i e s on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s . Upon c o m p l e t i n g t h e e x t e n d e d s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d s , w h i c h i s e s t i m a t e d t o t a k e two y e a r s , t h e e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y b a l a n c e s h o u l d be r e d r a w n , b a s e d on a "new" c r i t i c a l p e r i o d and r e v i s e d e n e r g y demand p r o j e c t i o n s . A t t h a t t i m e t h e f o l l o w i n g o p t i o n s a r e l i k e l y t o be open: E x p l o r a t i o n s o f U n c e r t a i n t y A s s e s s t h e n e e d f o r and t h e f e a s i b i l i t y and c o s t s o f : a) i n s t a l l i n g a d d i t i o n a l g e n e r a t i n g e q uipment t o c a p i t a l i s e on h i g h s t r e a m f l o w s e q u e n c e s b) t h e c r e a t i o n and m a i n t e n a n c e o f a t h e r m a l power r e s e r v e ; c) s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s i n g t h e l i v e s t o r a g e i n b o t h e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m s . P o s t e r p u b l i c and p o l i t i c a l d e b a t e a b o u t p r o p o s a l s f o r a c l i m a t e p r o o f e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g s y s t e m . These s t u d i e s s h o u l d f o r m a f i r m - b a s i s t o c o n s i d e r f u r t h e r a c t i o n s . H y d r o ' s p r e s e n t r e s p o n s e t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s t o a d j u s t t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d when a worse d r o u g h t s e q u e n c e i s r e c o r d e d . The s e t t i n g o f new r e c o r d s w o u l d a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h w i d e s p r e a d power s h o r t a g e s . The s t r a t e g y o u t l i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s i s d e s i g n e d t o r e d u c e t h e p r e s e n t c l i m a t i c s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m t o a p o i n t where o u t p u t s t a b i l i t y c a n be g u a r a n t e e d i n s p i t e o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y . 116 BIBLIOGRAPHY Bain, S.E., C.L. Mateer, and W.P.J. Evans, (1976). " M e t e o r o l o g i c a l and Ozone Data f o r P r o j e c t Sfratoprobe," Atmosphere, V o l . (14) 3. B. C. Energy, Commission, (1976). B r i t i s h Columbia's Energy  Outlook 1976-1991, V o l . 1, BCEC. (1977). 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R.E. K u c e r a ( G e o l o g y ) , D r . J.H.G. S m i t h APPENDIX ONE : DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL INFORMATION - R e c o n s t r u c t e d C l i m a t e , W e s t e r n N o r t h A m e r i c a R e c o n s t r u c t e d L e v e l s , Lake A t h a b a s c a TABLE 7: TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY STATIONS TABLE 8: RELATIVE DEPARTURES FOR 26 STATIONS From: T r e e - r i n g E v i d e n c e f o r C l i m a t i c Changes i n Western N o r t h A m e r i c a , F r i t t s , 1965. 121 Table 1: T r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g i e s p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e 8 No. Name Max. No. of Trees P e r i o d Used 1 Durango, Mexico V 5 1641-1940 2 Bi g Bend, Tex. 15 1646-1945 3 Casas Grandes, Mexico 6 1526-1960 4 Southern A r i z o n a 277 1416-1950 5 C l o u d c r o f t , N. Mex. 8 1516-1960 6 S. C a l i f . , B i g Cone Spruce 60 1386-1950 7 Upper Rio Grande, N. Mex. 11 911-1930 8 San Bernardino Mts., C a l i f . 12 1351-1930 9 . F l a g s t a f f , A r i z . 23 576-1960 10 Navajo N a t l . Monument, A r i z . 5 701-1955 11 Mesa Verde N a t l . Park, Colo. 12 736-1945 12 White Mts., C a l i f . 10 801-1950 13 Arkansas R i v e r , Colo. 16 1431-1950 14 South P l a t t e R i v e r , Colo. 15 1426-1940 15 N.E. C a l i f o r n i a 5 1486-1930 16 S.E. Oregon 15 1456-1930 17 Snake R i v e r , Idaho 20 1286-1950 18 Upper M i s s o u r i DP, Mont. 52 1306-1950 19 Columbia R i v e r , Wash. 29 1651-1940 20 Banff, Canada 33 1461-1950 21 P r a s e r R i v e r , Canada 41 1421-1940 22 E. C e n t r a l C a l i f o r n i a 14 1356-1940 23 Nine M i l e Canyon, Utah 18 1201-1945 24 North P l a t t e R i v e r , Colo. 6 1336-1945 25 Upper M i s s o u r i DP, Mont. 21 981-1950 26 Jasper, Canada - 8 1541-1945 T.int.K » . — K i l u t i r t lOryr. departures al 6-yr. interval! for !6 tree-i S T A T I O N N I ' M I I K I l C\J 351 • WW W*- MIA Mil - .'To v* . A ;A I • 171- .VJl 576- M A All- 890 5N4-5'.ll- WO AWV-fttJl- Al) ! 0U6- (15 I 'ill- 620 } 616- 62A ll. ' l - U K : j n.u ttt.A •III I (Lie. 'ii.\ I CM - (99) CAO- 6.1A I a i l - (i;u Aul. t!73 it;I- MO 676- IWA 681- IV) ooi- :uo 000- 71X1 701- 710 7 i » - 71A "II- 720 716- 725 721- 7.'*) 728- 735 331- 740 715- 715 741 - 750 7)4- 715 7J1- 760 754- 711 761- 7711 7C6- 775 771- 780 77*- 7»1 781- 790 7MJ-- 795 7(11- NO 760- WU s/.l Ml) Mrt- 814 s i I- 820 816- *23 M l - 810 . 820- 825 831- BID 6o«- S U ui- mo 84*- SJJ ml- 8.W 830- 865 M l - 870 s.«v s;s 871- KHO 876- KU H I - 890 fcav k 'ji »oi- »xi 906 . W l - 010 lus- . I O i l - IM! W l - MO i. - » * -am • -a« ( l . l l 1.17 0 47 0.04 - a oi a w - 0 51 - 0 . 48 0. H7 0. 81 - l l :i7 11. I * 11 (U - II AM -1.41 -11. 7rt -11.73 --ll.nl 0. 55 II. A 7 o i i o.ni I I . « - l l 44 -1.11 -- 0 . 77 0.07 -0.70 -0.13 -0 .43 - n . i l -0.11 0.11 a w a s v a w . a 72 a 21 - a j i - a 6» -0.33 - 0 . 82 0.02 a 23 - 0 . J7 -0.11 a m -0.5.1 -0.54 - 0 24 -0 .4I -1.31 -0.40 -0 .2 J -1.49 -0.11 -0.IW - 1 . 24 - a « -0 .44 -1.09 -0.51 -0.il - a 7; - 0 . 4 9 -0.24 -0.117 0 10 -0 .44 -0.53 0 45 -II. ID 0.27 a 12 0.17 1.11 0.10 t u O i l - a o 2 - a o s -0.42 0.01 -0.07 -0 .49 0.27 - 0 .<1 -0.57 - a n -0.11 -0 . 3 9 -0.38 0.51 "' - I M S - - a M 0.11 -0.02 - a 47 -0 .77 - a n - a u -0.711 -0 .39 - a t ) r 0 V U 0.W • a«7 0.43 0.54 1.28 0.14 0.SS a 7ii -0.37 l . M a 10 - 0 47 a 22 -0 .27 - a u -1.04 - a « -0.82 -1.31 - a 67 - a w -1 .19 - a n -0.24 -0.96 -0 .25 U K -o.»< ft 39 - a i r - a n • 0 .U - 1 . 0 J ' -aw -o .«» - a n an 0 21 - a 05 l . M -a.il : ' - a n -0 .02 -au -a s i - a . 4 » - 0 . M -0.61 - a 4 7 - a 22 0.01 0.88 0. It -0.27 - a v o - a o 3 a 17 a 47 - a 4 i - a 58 - 0 . 17 - 0 . Ill 0 06 a os 1.02 M O - a » - a co a u - a n - a n chronologic! from icextern \'orth America. Stations ure identified and described in tabic HTATION NI 'MHKR V.'9- 015 031- 010 106- 045 W l - 950 iHn- 015 M l - 060 9.V3- U15 toil- 070 WO- U75 971- K4> 976- 985 W l - 990 9*6- IW5 frOl-IOUO 900-1005 looi-toio UXW-IU15 1011-10-9 1016-1025 1021-1010 10-1M01S 11131-1040 1016-1045 1011-11153 1010-1055 Itttl-IOJO ltt'rfJ-llliW IdOI-lDTO IUkk-1074 1071 11 SO 1010-1084 1081-1090 1UH4-109S 1U91-UW lL'J.-llOA 1101-1110 I I I U - l l l ] H U 1120 1116-1125 1121-1110 1126-1115 1111-1110 1110-1145 1141-1150 1140-1155 1151-1100 1158-IIU5 11 '11 -1170 1164-1175 l m - n s o n i o - i i s s l lHl- l l ' JO 1186-1104 1191-1200 1190-1205 1201-1210" ' 1206-1215 j 1311-1220 U2l6-l2- '4 : 1221-1210 1226-1215 1211-1240 I23r>-1!43 I211-12M 1210-1255 I251-12S0 I2J0-I2C5 1201-1270 12116-1274 I27I-12M 1276-12H4 12SI-I20O 1286-1224 12111-13! 10 I W M U t t a i o ". 62 i>.54 .1.27 -0 .45 - a 14 a ei a w 11.28 -0.54 - 0 48 U. 24 0.76 0.31 - o . 2» - 1 . R5 -0.76 —11 50 0.12 I. l"* II. 06 0. U -0.31 -11 W -0.118 - ' 120 . 0.30 U.21 -0.74 -0.48 - 0 . 42 - a 72 -0 .60 -0 .65 -1118 I. 211 10 II. 47 -0 .31 - 0 . 87 - O 26 -0.48 - a 55 -C .40 28 0. 17 0 32 ai !8 0.41 r i l 25 - a i n 0.91 0.81 ~ C.62 - a II - a 91 - a yi -0.31 o. i l o.t i 0.97 a n - a i i - a 45 : - o . o : - a 10 - a 17 - a 76 - a o i - a f o - a vv - a iv o 79 -0.22 - 0 . 20 1.03 I. i ll 0.11 -1 .03 -0 .40 0.11 - a 12 -0 .12 - O K I 0. 15 n 3i -11.52 - 0 . 57 - a JI o i l —0. Ill II. II 0.31 0. 44 -ll 11 -0 .19 - 0 . 10 - 0 II -0.04 0 II - 0 . II -0.78 0.02 0. Ul 0.11 -0.68 -0.81 -0.63 -0 .52 0.20 O 67 0.17 0.31 a n - 0 . M - 0 J 6 " -0 .26 r 0 . 16 - 0 23 - O 13 —0. 08 - a 20 -0 .08 0.11 a 12 - a l l - a 10 • a94 0.06 -0 .00 -1.1)3 -1 .26 - a m - 0 . 4 J -0 .S1 0.U7 -0.06 - a 08 a j 7 a to -0 .19 -0 .03 - a 22 - a 67 - a w —i. is -1.04 - a n - a ID o.o; I). 14 11.31) 0.08 a o i 0.38 0.13 0.48 0.21 -0.17 1.21 . 0.91 -0 .47 -0.51 - 0 . 42 -0.01 -0.17 - 0 . 13 -II. 01 - 0 . 22 -0 .00 - 0 09 - 0 . 77 0.17 0.65 1.22 0.O4 -0 .49 -0 .17 0. 61 0.21 - 0 50 -0 .99 -0 .40 - 0 . 27 -0.11 O.f.9 1.35 1.16 -0.31 -1 .43 -1 .10 - 1 . 2 T -1.48 -0.9-2 -11 .11 -0 .41 -1 .02 -0 .69 - a n -0.74 - I . I I - » 2 1 0.70 • 0.81 a 75 -0 .20 -0.88 -0.61 - a u -0 .28 0.26 0.141 -a i i ao» - a o i -0 .83 - a ss - a s i - l . M - i . j j -1 .43 - l . M -a ii o. iw .j - 0 . II 0 14 1 0.91 i 0. 49 ; a 17 0.45 0.41 0.61 0. 16 -0.71 0 41 0.72 - 0 . 13 -0.18 - 0 . 42 0. irj . 0. Ill 0.70 0.70 - 0 . 3 * -I). 57 - 0 . Ill - 0 31 0. 09 11, 59 1. 61 1.62 0 92 1.00 0.91 - 0 . 10 - 0 . 51 - 0 . W -0.44 - 0 . 1 ] 0. 21 1. 2 ; 1.17 0.45 -0.18 -0.56 0 13 - a IM -0.42 -0.20 a i i a 18 - a 12 a w -0.21 - 0 1 5 -0.16 a n a i l — a os 0.16 -0 .25 -0 .49 -0.04 -0 .02 0.20 a 25 -0.1)1 - 0 . 2 J - a as -0.08 n o 0.00 - a 60 -0.79 - a n - a m -0 .45 - a on - i n a to a 2 i - a 25 a i i a i i - a jo au4 0.67 a n a so a 16 - a e i -0.67 -0.75 - a oi -1.03 - a w -0.60 - a Oi 0 16 I 0. 40 ' 0 4.'. • ii lit ; 11 28 , - „ .2 i 11.07 ' 11.25 | 11.07 I). Un-1 -0 .21 ! - I ) . 14 ! o. i ; I 0.1>I o. nj j • , 1 , 7 ! 0 u i ; 0.26 0.62 : i). 11 ; -0.07 I 11 1.1 ; 0. 67 II. 47 0. 15 - 0 . 09 1 0. Ill) 11.28 -0 .55 -I). 12 0.81 I o!i« 0.50 0.18 -0.3S - a 22 ll. -0.57 - a 81 -0 .07 0.13 0. K ll 12 - 0 . 11 0. II 1121 0.1)2 0.ft> 0.65 a u 0. 61 a oi a n a n 0.21 a m a 08 a w - a 01 - a 42 -0 .00 a 18 ' a n - a 22 -0.54 - 0 . 69 - a o s -at>« - a n - 0 (IN -II 51 -0.06 0.23 a 14 123 illSgillil plpfflll |2fip2f :iii U|spii|.i mlBBFm si§§?i§§!s Silislssil i i i l i l i i l l Ilillfllli silllllill illlEiilEl §l§iifs§ll C O I t I I I I I I I I I I p o p c p p p ^ * e pppppppppp p o c c o I I I I I I I t I "lit I I I " l PPP P f C O O N - p p O h£ — p — — — p p Oj- C D S — — — CP—a !s=£SS55SS2 sssssiiissse sskijasssks sssaesq I I I I  p O O p C Q C p p p K B S S S S E 5 S 2 l l l l I I 11 - p o p w p c c c o c c a o o p p p o — 3 E £ = g £ i S 5 S r . ' S a S E S S r C B I I I I p p p p c p p p p -I I I I I I ooooocc " I I I I I I til cpcocppope cepcc Ti T T T T ' i i p ppc.-rPPppp ope 111 ~ i" "i r~i i i i PPP ocpppccocp pp: -Stilt cceii^sEhsnS C £ 5 ppppp ccppp-pppc ppppppsppp " " ' M ' t V i ??P"5r pppppppppo C£g£Sfc*ssax aags;=si£ys. £S£~xS£S£- gsfcryrsys =s«=^sg^as sscttss-E^s C S C J ^ E S ^ S S I Ml f I I I I I I I I l I l I ll I i i t I l l i i l 1 i : Mil opccccocoo ccococoppo coooccoccc csoccce^ co p~ppppppop pppcjceppo ss8gc2«fcrs= c» i s2£ s s s552 e s s e s g s s s s sWbkL;f.ssbb ssys^sssss askscssscs t I 1 I I M I i I II I I I t I I I I ( f I It! Ill It 11 t t I 1 i I j | < [ i I I oe?cecc—ceo oppcc =pccp pppppppoop oocpccocpo pppppppppp cp-poopppp pppp--popr*P isb'-isssats s E s a s s s c s s ^ s s e s s s s s s assesses:: sssgsassgg sssggesass ms&sziz^-i I I I I I I 1 I I I l' I I I I I I I I I I I I I " I I i I t : II I • o — oepp — — oc pppp — popca pppcaopccs ocopoooppp ppcp — ppoop — — PPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPP ksk=sbesss skas'sssbsa s s s s s s s s s u s s ' s ' s s s f l s s s s s s s k s s s = 8 ssss i .38s.28 t s s e s s s s i s s i I I i i i i 111 i MI i I I i i i i i III i i i i i II MI i pcocccopcp pppr'r-PPPPP pppppppppp pppppppppp pppppppppp • pp pp pppppp pppppppppp asssssksks B S E C S S S S B S ssgsssssss. sasassasea s s s s s s s s e s esssssssB- s ssas-Ksssra • 11 i i 1111 i i 11 i i i i i i i i 11 opcocppooo poecoooooo eopopocopo OPOCOPPOCO poop , sbsssEsssk s s s s k s a a a s ssesssqkts sisgakregus s a k e I I I I I II 11111 i MI i I I I III i i i p p p p p p p p p p pppppppppp p c p o p p p p p o e c p e c c p o o o ppppp ES==ssssac sEssssgsss S S B S S B S S S S E S c k ' s s o k s k cssfes I I I I 111111 i i i' i i i 11 i i I I I IM I I I II II IM c p p c p p - - c - p p p c c o p c p - p p p p o c p p o o c o c p p o o o o o p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p o p p p p p p o gssssgsticE s s e a i S i i s s s ssegssessa stk'sikssks sessstsssss esskksssrss assasssksk 11 11 11111 i II i II I I I i I I I i 111 pp--PPP p p p c o p p e c p p p — — p p p p p p c o o p p — — p p c o o c — p o — — p p p p — p p p p p p p p p p o p p ••isss-isssaa esssasssss SESsessscrk ssscssssika sssssssssr yESssssrsas bas I I I I t i i II i III i ppppocppcc oocoocc— cc CP — — ppoecc' copppp — ppp p e p p p p - p p - — — — ——pPppp s s s t s s s a s s s g s a s s k s s s a g g s g s s s a b a s b s a s k a i s s s ' s k s k s s i s a s s B s a e s s k s s k k s s k B S S B s a i " i i i i i i i i i III IIII i II III i i i i i i i i. i : i i ' i - f - - P p O p p p p p p - p p p C p p P p P O P D P C P — C C p S C P C C - - — — — — pP^PO P p p p p . p p p P sssgass&ss sassss^p'sa sagbkeskbU kkksaeesks fsbitEgssis sse^Ksssii-i 1111 11 i 111 i i i v MI i i • p o o p — — o p p o p p c o c o o c c o p o — — k o o e o p — — p .essssgss fcg Bsssbsskssis xk&Edjssfsgk sbk _ I I l I Ml M M \ I I M t PPPPPPPPPP C C C C C C O C C O O C C O © 6 p o p e o o c o c o e s s a g g a s ^ s ssaragasse skksessbeb 'krekkskse i„- 11 - „ j. • _11 111111 i 1111 11 MI i i t III i i 11 11 I I I F P P r P r r p ^ P PPPPPPPPr"^ p p p o p c — — p o c o c e c c o c o — — p o — o p o o c p p p p c o p p p e c e p e o p p p p p p resssssssie 8S8SSSS25S asE s s t i i s s s sakskkss'as kssskskask sskkksssss sskgksagss i 11 i 111 i i i i i i i i IIII i t i i i i i i PPPT'r-PPPPP PPPPPr-pppp rPPPPPPPPP pppppppppp pppppppppp IIII -PPPPP Eg s t i g s a s aa esrgsa.ssp =esr££gesii s a s s e s s t s a gaessssses sezsskscsa ssagssssss i„_i i _ „ ' J L 1 1 1 1 1 i I I I II i t I I I I i i i • i r i i i III i I I PPPPPP—PPP pppp — pPr-PP ppopopcocc ccppcecopp eppppcoepp ococopeppo ppep —oppo eaaeasseas Sfe-gsrass^ii Bsgsissskss ssksskgssss ksssskkssk kkkksssgsk ssssessafik i r „ ' J , ' ' 1 1 11111 11 IM i i i t i i i i PPPPPPPPPP ppppp.pc.ppp SC. 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' 0 n r o - 01 1 O i 0 t.l 11 i r o - 1011- > t o E O 'O - » r . o S t 0 IS 1) w i - BV"0- 11 Tl C E O - a i o - 911 ' f l - f . l 0 SE 0— K l l - I S O sr o i s o - iC 0 - c r o -XtD- 0 » 0 - K O ' O - 10 0 O J O - 9 0 D ss T i -V t ' O - 0 0 1 - 1 V I - t i m - c o o - 0 1 0 - l t i i -01 0 t o o - M D - et 0 - 00 0 - Et 11— VH'O VII 0 — 11111 o r o - C l T i - OP'O- e r o - t i n wro— 021 0811- l l T i - HE 0 - E J ' f l - H O ' f l -VI 0 - c r i 01 V l l 0 - 0 1 ' f l - 1 E T I - at fl C H l l - m-o CS 0 Ot'O it 0 - « B 0 - nin 11 0 - E l l ) 1H0 El 1 05 0 1?.'0- m T i -V E O - 111) M ) ' l CE 1 u n - es o - ts 0 -m T I - W . ' 0 10 0 Ot 1 c i "0 91 0 DtJ - ' I O i - J E 0 - t t ' O - n o 11 Tl O R t l Ot'O m- M 11- 17. D U O - 81 D - I t 0 H I I I C O - VI 0 CB'O l t fl- VJ 'O 9 E D - H o d t ' O - 0 1 0 - ! t H - i t I - v o o - • 1 1 - JC 0 C O ' O - V T . O - W 0 - OO'".- C D 'O - 19 0 - r o n -l » ' 0 n o tt 0 - . C I ' l - EE 0 - "CJT( t o n ( S O 01 D 1ST) » 1 u - B T I 9 Q D OS 0 iio o c a m o (JE'O- E I O - 5 C 0 S t ' O I C ' O - V E O - S t D - 10 I I - W 0 - . 00'0- v o o » t 0 - d t ' O - 11 D - B ' O - c ? . o - « t D - t r o -t i o - 00 0 o s o i o n 98 '0 OSTI (W.T U ' O - rv o IS D K T l ES'O 01 0 1 1 0 W 0 - f t l - Ot'O- reo 90 0 11 0 - W 0 -01 T l - 01 0 - o r . T i - It fi- C 7 . 0 - t i o - 10 T i -111 "0 1E 0 - o r . o ll 0 - t l T i - w o - l t 0 19 0 C S ' O - 51 fl- ft-.O- l l 0 - r.vo DIT) t r o - O E ' O - OH 0 - 1 1 1 roD— or.o HCT) M ' O - K ' O - t f . ' O - Ct 0 fO'O 0 1 0 - P i ' O -10 0 (1E0- DOO EED t l 0 19 T l - 9 1 1 -« t o H O - no III 0 n o cv o - H ) 0 -B t O M 0 01 D K l ' O - 90 b t r o - i m cm H T i - I C O - W.'O- t E O EO'O OS T i -o i o to D - n o - U l - 91 0 - t l ' O r t o ' 0 -51 0 tft'O ( V l ' O - E5 0 51 0 8 > 0 - r.9 o -15 0 t t o U 0 5 « n Ot 'O- ! 1 D » D -K ' O • f O u n 00 1 oo I v - t r o - K) 0 I C O 010 15 0 01 1 o r i - 10 0 - SS'O-Bo'O HI 0 P E ' O - t ; l r ? . o - C l ' f l - I I 0 c o o ; 9 E 0 - ( W ' O - t i l l 1 1 1 H I ' O - OC'O v r o - 1 E « o - (11 0 - ; 1 - c s o - »m- Cl 0 -f o « n - » n - t t ' l OMI-ISM I E I - K ' O - i i n - 9 t ' l V S I I - W H 01 0 9 0 1 - r.so t o n r i f l 94 0 - II 1 0 V 1 I - 1 M I B ' O - i o n 11 1 - ( K ' O to 0 t t i I t 0 - CS'O to n - S M I - V O M t E O - s o n - t i n - n n - i n n t u m i It 0 - i s n t o n - IX fl- o n i i c n i i l ' O - 11 0 i i n - O t ' O - ICO • (17. 0 - W ' l 10 0 d s n 51 n - OC 0 V t O l - O W l 10 ' f l O C 'O - 01 0 fl 0 01 0 It'O 07 . 0 t n n at It 0 - ro o K l 0 - 10 0 - Omi-170! . tE 'O 01 ' 0 - w o t « n ( M l d s n 1! 0 IE 0 ot 0 c o o s s n - o o n lo l i - SWI -0101 11 0 11 0 c o o B l 19 1 i n 11 1 t t 0 IS 0 7 ^0 O E O - t e n st 0 t l W I - H M EV '0 It 0 w o 01 I i n n i n n c m ( W O s i n 1 * 0 I I ) 0 e i : o IS 0 s i n i -emu 11 T i - 91 0 - 91 0 - 0 ! 0 - 70 0 - o r o i r o - s i n K ' O - 90 0 u 0-• t o 01 0 - O l f l l - I O O l l l ! ' 0 - ' 11 0 - 01 o - m n - 00 0 - t u n - ts n - « o n - t s n - u n - I t ' O - 01 0 - 70 I l - 5II0I-VO«t » w > 10 fl 59 " 0 - E t 0 - t o n t u n e t o - t t o - 5 1 0 - i t T i - s t 0 - 59 0 - l s 0 - otmi-in"! HI 0 - n o R l ' O m t t 0 EV 0 0 1 0 p s n C l l ' f l - 01 0 - CV t i - (K 0 - « s n - 50vi-py*;i 9E 0** oni) 90 ' 0 I I 0 - Ot 0 - i i n - O E O s i n K 0 - o r o l l 0 - 10 0 - H t ' O O W - I K * ! IZ u - t l 0 Ct I l - I C ' O - B l - t o n - t o n - 9 1 0 - •19 0 - VI 0 i t n - 90 0 - t u n V V - I - O i V l s s o - 11 0 l s ' 0 - SI 0 - t » n - O E 'O- 07. n - 99 0 - 4* 0 - J E 0 - * i n - S S ' f l - h i n - t m i i i s i c r o tz 0 I I 0 - so n - Ct 0 t t n E E 0 00 0 t : n - t o n - « t fl- 4 t ' 0 - Et 0 - S 1 « I - V I « I 93 '0 K ' O - M l ' f l 50 0 t i n V T . 0 K J O - i o n M O - S E ' O - i c u - I S ' D - t t n - o i » i - i i n i E t ' O - reo- 10 0 - 11 0 - 19 0 - t H ' f l - O E ' O - u n - ES 0 - M o - oi fl- 9 1 1 1 - * l n - S V U - V S H l SU 0 - 10 O T ECO t i n 1 1 0 - Dt 0 - 0 1 0 t i l ' 59 0 - * T t o i c n - » ) 0 - S l 0 - tWII - ISNI O i ' O - 10 0 - OC'O n o a n - t i n PC 0— IE 0 t s n - t n n - I t ' O - c r n 51 0 - -,V»t-01HI uo- S S ' O r>n t i n W t l - 0 1 0 - Ct 0 - u n - 9£ 0 - VI 0 - K C ' D — U t ' U EI 0 I K V I - I I V I 11 0 OC ' I i r o P S ' O 90 D m o - 97.'fl i o n 91 0 - t l 0 HO 0 41 0 9 ; i i S W l - V C V l V E O 01 I 9 S ' 0 10 1 t i n C9 0 s s n t o o Ct 0 - w o O i l 19 0 I K 0 n m i - l e s l RE 11 c o n SE 0 19 (1 9 H n " I I 0 ' i w n HI 0 l ! 0 t i n CO 0 C E . I ue fl- v t > i - v r y ! s o n - o v n III 0 - t o n - 1 1 1 r . r o - t o o - SO 0— 7.1 0 m i n - 70 0 92 1 oe l - n i ^ i - i r . i i i c o - 59 '0 « n - es o - 9 w n - « o - « T i - 1 1 0 - i o n - ts 0 - i n o 01 11 K E 0 - V W I - V I H l E l 0 1 5 0 U ' O - 01 0 - 51 0 - 41 T i - l l 1 - t m - llt 0 70 0 w tl w.'. t i - P l 0 I K H - l l H t « t 0— H5 0 - S E ' O — t l ' O - oi n - l l T i - io n - 91 0 - t o n to 0 to i nt u - I E 0 V l n l ^ ' r l l V9 0 - 1 1 1 - OS o - n o - 11 fl- l l n - i t n - HE'O w o CO 0 I t 0 Ct 0 - Vi o - n i M - i y v i t o n - f l 0 90 0 - El 0 i t ' 0 - 90 fl Sl fl- I W O c o n t o n - I I 0 t o n - o m - V O B l - V O i l i s n t o o 90 0 91 0 o i n ' t l ' f l i t 0 IV 0 10 0 vo 0 (It 0 VI 0 O f . ' O - U W I - I O l l t u n • It 0 - OX fl- t l l - 711 0 \1 0 t i n VI 0 HI 0 to 0 - m o nr. o - I E ' 0 - V01I ( H i l 91 T I - 50 0 - i t 1 1 - 1)5 0 - 7.C 0 - l i n - n u - no o t o n - OE l i - IV. 0 - VI 0 - r v n - O f l l l - I R l l ES 0 - t t ' O - o t o - w o - 0 1 0 - i m n - l l i i - It 0 - 91 0 st I l - fti o VI 0 - I I 0 - W l l - 9 : i l C S ' O - t l 0 - 85 n - S8 0 - m o - 91 n - rr. o - Wl 0 - e i o - l s 0 - III 0 91 A - 91 1 - OHil l i l l OO'O tt 0 t l l i - 00 0 M fl- r.im M 11 C9 0 ro i i - ir . i i u n 01) 0 . 110 0 - 51:1 v n C t 0 i t a on n - 97.'0 i t 0 (II 0 1 1 1 I I 0 47, n n o IH 'O V H l l 1(1 II m i l . I l ' i l i s n 9 1 0 O S ' O - CO 0 ( W O 51 0 - t n o - tv l i - t « i i t l 0 US II III 0 n i l v i i : . i w : i i t n t e n o n - Ot T l - t c n - 1H 0 - IE 0 - ra o - U,*. 11 1C 0 - rt n IV 0 - SK 11 If.'II I V M o t n o i n IE '0 Ot n $ 1 0 - o t i n o t n - 110 (NO 91 ' f l - i n i i r t i i - on i) V V l t M l t i l 01 ' 0 s i n - KO 1 9 0 o v n o i n i t n - t o n .00*1 i t n 1 S T 11 0 - tv.a I K I l 1111 I C ' O - s i n - e t ' o - t o n - O t ' O - o t n - t s n - s o n - O E n o n o - IE 1 •>.in CA 11 v t i l - 9 v i i E t n - t t n - 91 0 - 10 0 - i n n - - s o n - I I T i - i t o - 9 1 0 - 01 0 - H S ' O S t 0 77. II o i : i - n : : l ot n - 5t n - 11 0 - i » 0 - o i n - t t n - l l T I - « o n - 9E 0 - 10 0 11 0 - I I 0 - 01 II S t i ! l).'.ll K n io n t t 0 511 0 - 17. n - o E n - K I ) r . i n t . t n 50 0 9 1 0 - 7.t 0 t / E ' O O t H - l * I I V t o n a o w n SE'O n n « m - 47. n C l 0 s o n 17. 0 - o o n - t o n H t ' O - 5 ' i l 11111 1 i s n t i n - t t o 57. 0 e c n 10 0 - t i n t « i n - ce n ttl 0 o s n - t i n - . I I 1 - I V ^ l - l l i l , c o n i t n - K C ' O 91 n w o - t o n - rc'o t l fl- 77.1) 01 0 - t v n - I t 0 - 11 1 - V l l l W C I ^ 11 0 - o n - OE 0 s o n t o n - 91 0 c o n - i t n - t c n - B t n - « n - 01 0 o m - m i l . l o l l *-10 '0— t t n - 11 o OC 0 - - 1 ( 0 - t e n s t ' f l - I I 0 I I -ti- I t 0 - o t n - non to 0 - VO.'.I w>\ -01 0 O l ' O - 91 0 Cl 0 - (IC 0 i m i t fl- n i i ll 0 - oi n IH n - 01 0 1 1 0 - m i l im'i ft 10 l l - C S ' O - CO' l l to ( 1 - t t 0 i n n i t 0 01 0 10 0 t i n I I I I - ir . 'n vr. o v^ 1 t i i ic . i t HO 0 - tB 1 1 - K ' f l - ( V . ' f l - r.i o f t 0 E C O - IV 0 I t 0 i n o t t 0 - 91 0 - t e n im-H is-i l K 0 t l o - 9 C 0 - IV) 0 - 1C 0 s e n 05 0 - d s n 40 0 - t i n t » n - ct 0 - IV II W O V i l l i S s e n Ts n 11 0 91 0 no E7 . n Ct'O 90 n 70 0 o t n sn 0 - 40 0 C l 1! (TWI1-WV1 1-510— « o n - 1 1 1 - d o n « i n i r . n - t r o - i m - i s n - (11 0— 90 0 - oo n 51 0 - VI-M v n t c s n - K ' 0 - 1 9 0 - c o n 11 0 1 m i - i t n - S S ' O - 9 7 . ' f l - 9 1 * 0 - OS 0 - n i i - 90 0 n i ' i t - l f M ' oi n O O ' O 90 0 s s n n o n i CZ'O 10 0 - Cd 0 K l ' O v r o i t n - I t 0 V . M l V.".'t 0 ! 0 n o - ISO u n ( i n - 1 s i n t e n t s n - It I 10 o - u n - IC n 11 0 im\ l'.vt RECONSTRUCTED WATER LEVELS POR LAKE ATHABASCA (1810-1967) IN PEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LE V E L Prom: An E m p i r i c a l R e c o n s t r u c t i o n of Water L e v e l s f o r Lake Athabasca (1810-1967) by A n a l y s i s of T r e e - r i n g s . Moon X e a r May 21-30 July 11-20 .Sept. 21-30 Mo An M««n Meon *«""" May 21-30 July 11-20 Stpt. *i-3U. CM l e i o 631.371 1311 687.486 IS 12 682.796 1813 6 3 3 . M l 1314 634.140 1915 689.061 IS 15 634.795 1317 631.400 1318 633.572 1819 635.432 1320 684.015 1321 639.191 1322 6 8 7. 7 8 B 1S23 637.695 1321, 636.227 1823 636.185 1526 6e6.037 1327 537.978 1328 638.751 1329 690.264 1330 690.320 1331 633.274 1932 6 3 7.S95 15 33 6*7. <n 1334 533.142 1335 688.666 1336 637.570 1837 635.667 1338 636.262 1339 635.268 1343 635.944 1341 634.953 1842 685.566 1343 636.052 13 44 635.395 131*5 6 5 3.363 13i46 634.375 1347 636.622 13i»3 634.836 1349 634.700 1350 636.259 1851 635.755 1352 6 3 6.3 93 1353 635.290 135i» 637.634 1355 6 3 7.300 IS 56 635.825 1857 636.137 1853 636.806 1859 685.757 1363 635.267 1361 63b.352 1362 63 8.017 684.587 690.644 637.243 639.714 636.609 685.474 683.956 682.113 636.155 686.096 688.919 693.187 639.681 690.333 690.029 639.182 691.721 692.183 693.551 693.771 692.771 693.346 691.769 691.727 691.664 691.206 690.592 6 3 3.434 639.652 687.499 657.373 633.368 683.747 635.885 637.540 684.524 684.940 687.412 636.659 687.173 687.464 638.312 633.6Q5 690.431 639.064 639.483 685.389 683.471 688.458 638.927 683.766 639.507 690.375 685.257 689.678 682.038 669.363 684.401 686.835 684.011 680.531 683.834 684.753 685.506 689.274 684.657 686.347 685.897 684.631 687.558 687.071 687.653 688.610 687.638 68 6.318 656.90 9 6 « 6 . 7 9 7 68 6.775 687.178 686.328 684.P.32 685.811 684.314 685.946 685.954 685.629 684.834 685.973 682.35 3 684.561 685.892 684.879 ' 685.610 685.713 686.057 685.552 686.422. 687.025 687.732 683.274 686.147 685.425 686.313 685.573 685.493 687.512 1863 1364 1865 1866 1367 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1373 1874 1875 1876 13 77 1378 1379 1380 1831 1332 1333 1334 1335 1".36 1337 18 33 1889 1390 13 91 1392 . 1393 1894 1395 1396 1397 13 93 ' U 9 9 1900 1901 1902 1933 1904 1905 •1906 19 0 7 1938 • 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 687.C38 635.434 685.684 684.239 634.558 630.377 634.041 683.194 684.272 637.C43 636.426 684.326 684.025 683.198 633.675 633.729 684.140 683.445 686.754 635.690 686.896 635.555 635.661 636.815 636.652 634.443 683.696 684.856 636.121 636.363 637.863 687.763 687.831 637.780 637.447 687.423 £ 3 7 . 7 8 6 690.051 639.191 688.281 638.202 638.608 6 8 8.017 686.709 686.737 688.893 689.443 688.298 688.148 635.989 686.925 636.650 685.166 65 9.266 667.013 685.848 635.660 684.479 681.299 683.608 685.457 688.360 688.824 687.936 686.344 686.103 685.310 636.027 686.376 686.435 686.242 693.131 690.152 639.453 688.439 639.569 693.493 689.433 636.380 687.216 689.211 689.322 690.319 691.006 691.256 691.344 692.334 690.974 639.682 691.241 694.427 693.946 691.179 691.257 692.415 691.279 688.947' 689.537 693.755 693.116 693.042 691.0 98 689.516 690.366 639.524 687.153 686.241 684.032 685.306 683.812 684.381 679.717 685.201 684.171 685.662 686.416 686.297 684.056 684.046 683.733-684.364 684.340 683.540 682.600 687.996 686.170 636.030 685.423 685.6:; 8 685.961 685.031 683.755 684.737 686.381 666.007 686.673 686.227 606.545 666.34B 687.330 686.433 685.93 9 6 « / . 3 2 2 689.400 637.983 686.608 687.912 668.135 667.399 685.958 666. 746 688.745 68 7. 76.1 637.281 686.244 686.363 687. 303 686.151 684.364 Ttear 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1933 . 1931 1932 1933 19 34 1935 19 35 1937 1933 1939 .1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1943 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1953 1959 1963 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Mean Kccui Mean May 21-30 July 11-20 Sept. 21-30 635. 150 634.734 635.404 683.562 684.327 636.977 638.469 633.971 633.619 686.819 536.117 684.813 684.633 683.885 685.107 633.281 683.936 6C4.038 685.594 65>.193 63 3.322 6 86.152 683.736 634.861 635.223 635.861 684.374 6 3 4.711 634.212 633.906 683.653 635.302 6 « 5 . 117 635.344 685.C19 685.782 635.376 0 i4 ,541 635 .C34 635.752 635.034 604.690 635.737 635.762 634.874 635.799 686.789 636.919 685.616 687.054 635.245 635.690 6P9.206 £ 3 7 . 4 8 6 687.937 687.663 687.740 693.201 692.48Q 691.204 692.295 689.373 637.73C 633.213 636.544 637.155 686.264 635.485 637.304 638. 445 690.135 693. 123 691.735 657.553 685.376 637.313 687.073 536.725 686.756 688.005 685.830 684.372 685.310 687.729 688.208 687.403 686.906 687.833 633.733 685.381 6 3 7.917 687.717 636.911 63 7.60 6 637.410 669.316 688.621 669.146 693.554 689.530 690.037 690.057 639.425 689.725 686.132 684.379 666.044 684.44 7 685.261 68°.33ft 688.106 688.000 688.277 685.152 686.103 685.097 684.342 6P4.6?0 6e5.298 684.222 664. 9 » 7 685.317 687.553 639.314 £3 3.77 2 685.7*1 683.098 6e5.694 684.406 684.C56 ' 684.652 684.734 683.175 682.703 683.227 664.640 685.537 684.*=> 2 664.234 635.211 685.171 662.S92 68 5. 494 685.313 684.277 685.821 664.996 667.105 6R6.467 636.530 688.036 6e6.4-31 669.235 63 7,fc3 3 73 2 686.95 3 tt, & V- t ^ i M> ^ 8 to fa 8«i % 95 cj© qz <m «,b qS l<p oz ot, c6 08 

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