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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Planning for climatic variability Rutgers, P. U. 1977

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PLANNING FOR CLIMATIC VARIABILITY by  PIETER ULRICH RUTGERS B.A., University of Newcastle upon Tyne;, 197.3'  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES, SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING  We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1977  0  Pieter U l r i c h Rutgers, 1977  In  presenting  this  an a d v a n c e d  degree  the  shall  I  Library  f u r t h e r agree  for  scholarly  by h i s of  this  written  at make  that  thesis  freely  may It  is  fulfilment  of  of  Columbia,  British  available  for  for extensive  be g r a n t e d  financial  by  shall  that  not  of  University  copying  of  British  29-4-1977  Columbia  I  agree  this  copying  be a l l o w e d  or  for  that  study. thesis  my D e p a r t m e n t  Community and Regional Planning of  requirements  r e f e r e n c e and  t h e Head o f  understood  gain  the  permission.  2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5  Date  it  permission  purposes  for  in p a r t i a l  the U n i v e r s i t y  representatives.  Department The  thesis  or  publication  without  my  A B S T R A C T Planning f o r Climatic  Variability  A c c o r d i n g t o most c l i m a t o l o g i s t s t h e r e c e n t w e a t h e r extremes  are symptomatic  o f t h e r e t u r n t o a more v a r i a b l e  c l i m a t e a f t e r an u n u s u a l l y warm and s t a b l e t h i r t y y e a r s t h a t came t o a n end i n t h e e a r l y prolonged c l i m a t i c  1970s.  to  This  s t a b i l i t y has i n s t i t u t i o n a l i s e d  c o n c e p t o f a s t a b l e c l i m a t e among most p o l i c y and m a k e r s and  c o n s e q u e n t l y , most l i f e  the decision  support systems, food,  e n e r g y and w a t e r h a v e b e e n p l a n n e d f o r t o o n a r r o w a of the  climatic variability.  Recent  forty  events begin to  range  illustrate  s e r i o u s i m p a c t s t h a t a more v a r i a b l e , b u t more n o r m a l ,  c l i m a t e has  on t h e s e s y s t e m s .  T h i s t h e s i s has a t t e m p t e d t o : 1.  Assess the impact of i n c r e a s e d c l i m a t i c  variability  on t h e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y o f t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams p r o j e c t s and  o t h e r c o m p o n e n t s o f B.C.  Hydro's  i n t e g r a t e d power g e n e r a t i o n s y s t e m . 2.  Develop a p l a n n i n g response to c l i m a t i c i n the c o n t e x t of e l e c t r i c i t y in British  Columbia. ii  variability  generation planning  The  study  included a review  change, a r e v i e w the  of l i t e r a t u r e  development of a p l a n n i n g  of l i t e r a t u r e  on p l a n n i n g  on c l i m a t i c  under u n c e r t a i n t y ,  model and t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f  t h i s model t o t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c developments i n t h e Upper Columbia R i v e r The phases:  Basin.  planning  m o d e l i s i t e r a t i v e and r e c o g n i s e s  problem r e c o g n i t i o n , system  seven  identification,  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of uncertainty, exploration of uncertainty, formulation  o f a l t e r n a t i v e s , e v a l u a t i o n , and development o f  a commitment p a c k a g e . The  case study  provides  an a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s  t o t h e management o f t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d management o f o t h e r integrated generation record  system.  The f o r t y y e a r  period  streamflow  planning,  s t a b l e when c o m p a r e d t o h i s t o r i c  v a r i a b i l i t y as i n d i c a t e d by r e l e v a n t "critical"  Dams, and t h e  components o f t h e  (1928-1968), the b a s i s o f g e n e r a t i o n  a p p e a r s t o be u n u s u a l l y  model  t r e e - r i n g data.  The  on w h i c h t h e s y s t e m ' s f i r m e n e r g y  c a p a b i l i t y i s based i s exceeded i n t h e Lake Athabasca chronology.  This  t r e e - r i n g chronology, which c o r r e l a t e s  w e l l w i t h the Columbia R i v e r streamflow, contains of a d r o u g h t , t w i c e  t h e magnitude and t h r e e  evidence  times the  d u r a t i o n o f t h e c r i t i c a l p e r i o d , w h i c h m i g h t have  struck  t h e R o c k y M o u n t a i n s b e t w e e n 1864 and 1880. c o n d i t i o n s t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e  Under  Dams w o u l d  these  generate  r e s p e c t i v e l y 19$ a n d 17-8$ b e l o w d e s i g n p r o d u c t i o n .  These  l o s s e s c o u l d be a b s o r b e d b y t h e , i n t e g r a t e d s y s t e m , b u t further reductions  i n output,  p o s s i b l y a r i s i n g i n the post  draw-down p e r i o d m i g h t , b e y o n d 1980, l e a d t o o v e r a l l shortfalls. all  I f t h i s d r o u g h t were t o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y  hydroelectric generation  c o u l d be  To i m p r o v e t h e e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g  initially  of  expected.  system's  t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y , i t i s recommended  that  B.C. H y d r o d e v e l o p a n d i m p l e m e n t a n e n e r g y  conservation by  affect  p l a n t s , power s h o r t a g e s  b e t w e e n 2$ and 6$ o f a n n u a l demand l o a d s  resilience  supply  program, w h i c h would reduce f o r e c a s t e d  6% b y 1 9 8 0 , c o n t r a c t power t o new i n d u s t r i a l  on a n i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s , e x t e n d t h e s t r e a m f l o w  demands  customers records  of  t h e P e a c e a n d C o l u m b i a R i v e r s b y means o f t r e e - r i n g s a n d monitor c l i m a t i c research.  The e x t e n d e d r e c o r d s h o u l d  t h e b a s i s o f a new e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y b a l a n c e options  form  a n d some o f t h e  the a u t h o r i t y could then consider are the c r e a t i o n  of a thermal  power r e s e r v e , t h e i n c r e a s e  of l i v e storage i n  e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e r e s e r v o i r s , t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n o f additional generating contingency thermal  plans  reserve.  e q u i p m e n t and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f  t o f u r t h e r c u r t a i l demand a n d u t i l i s e t h e  TABLE OF  CONTENTS Page  Abstract  i i  List  of Tables  ix  List  of F i g u r e s  x  Acknowledgement  xi  Chapter  1  INTRODUCTION  1  Planning  2  for Climatic Variability  Methodology  2  9  CLIMATIC CHANGE The  Atmospheric  Historic  14 System  15  Trends  16  Climatic Evolution  19  Sources  20  o f C l i m a t i c Change  The  Warming H y p o t h e s i s  22  The  Cooling  24  The  Solar Climatic Hypothesis  Hypothesis  G l o b a l P r e d i c t i o n s Based Climatic Hypothesis Conclusions  on t h e  27 Solar 28 30  v  Chapter 3  Page TOWARDS A PROCESS POR PLANNING- POR CLIMATIC  VARIABILITY  3 2  Climatic Uncertainties  33  Integration of Climatic Planning i n Decision-making Processes Emerging Approaches t o P l a n n i n g under Uncertainty -  A P r o b a b i l i t y Approach t o Uncertainty  -  36 37 39  U n c e r t a i n t y and Environmental Impact  41  - . DOSRAP  45  -  48  S t r a t e g i c Choice  Towards a P l a n n i n g M o d e l  53  Limitations t o Planning for Climatic  4  Variability  59  Summary  63  PLANNING POR CLIMATIC  VARIABILITY  CASE OP THE UPPER COLUMBIA  THE  BASIN  64  D e s c r i p t i o n o f Study Area  65  Relevance o f Study Area  67  Planning Process  69  A.  Problem Recognition  69  B.  System I d e n t i f i c a t i o n  70  C.  Identification  73  D.  Exploration of Uncertainty  75  -  Tree-ring Analysis  75  Climatic H i s t o r y of Northwestern North America v i  77  of Uncertainties  Chapter 4  Page  (Continued) -  Lake A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s  81  -  Peyto Lake Study  84  -  Uncertainty  88  -  M i c a Dam  -  Revelstoke  -  88  91  Conditions  91  Formulation -  90  Dam  I m p a c t on I n t e g r a t e d S y s t e m  Uncertainty E.  o f Impact  of System F a i l u r e  96  of R i s k V a l u a t i o n  97  of A l t e r n a t i v e s  Operational Plans  97  Contingency Plans  98  D e s i g n C r i t e r i a and  Policy  Adjustments  98  -  Exploratory Actions  99  -  Uncertainty  of C l i m a t i c  System 99  Structure Uncertainty of Variance  5  ....  100  -  Uncertainty  of Impact  101  -  Uncertainty  of Risk V a l u a t i o n  101  -  Monitoring Plans  F.  Evaluation  G-.  Development  102 102 103  o f a Commitment P a c k a g e  SUTYMARY AND C O N C L U S I O N S  Use o f D a t a f r o m t h e N a t u r a l S c i e n c e s Planning f o r Climatic V a r i a b i l i t y vii  105  .......  105 107  Chapter 5  Page (Continued) Climatic Variability Generation Capacity  and H y d r o e l e c t r i c 108  BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX ONE  116 :  DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL  INFORMATION  Reconstructed Climate of Western North America Reconstructed Levels f o r Lake Athabasca  viii  LIST  OF  TABLES  Table 1  2  3  Page Relative Duration  Departure  by Magnitude  78  Mean and S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n and E n t i r e S e r i e s Mean  and  and V a r i a n c e o f Lake  of  Partial 80  Athabasca  Levels  83  4  Lake  Athabasca Anomaly  5  Mean  and V a r i a n c e  6  Peyto  7  Energy C a p a b i l i t y Balance - Integrated System E n e r g y C a p a b i l i t y B a l a n c e w i t h 5$ a n d 10$ R e d u c t i o n i n H y d r o e l e c t r i c P i r m Energy  8  Lake  Anomaly  Periods  Peyto  Lake  84 Chronology  Periods  ix  ...  86 86  93  94  LIST  OF  FIGURES  Figure  Page  1  Pood  2  Mean T r e n d s  5  f o r Thought i n Global  Climate:  The  Past  Million  Years  18  3  Warming  or Cooling?  25  4  Model  5  The  6  47  f o r DOSRAP  Strategic  Location  Map  f o r Upper  Basin 7  System  50  Choice Approach Columbia  River 66 71  Relationships  x  ACKNOWLEDGEMENT  The  author  appreciation Marion  Parker  comments also or  would  like  to Irving f o rtheir  to express  Pox, John thorough  h i s sincere  Hay, M i c h a e l assistance  during the preparation of this  t o many  other faculty  indirectly assisted  xi  and  a n d many  thesis.  members a n d f r i e n d s  i n the completion  Quick  My who  of this  helpful thanks  directly  study.  Chapter  One  INTRODUCTION  According extremes climate forty  came  i n this  population western  that  supplies.  This  institutionalized  for  systems,  too narrow  events  begin  variable,  food,  a range  the  future,  information climatic  energy  cannot  but c l i m a t i c about  change.  stable  expanded on  climate  have  impacts  climate  on t h e s e  give  has  us a c c u r a t e  life  planned  and that  recent a  more  systems.  predictions  history  provides  a source  the magnitude,  duration  and r a t e s  In planning  has  among  most  been  the serious  and  steady  stability  Consequently  and w a t e r  It i s  the world's  of climatic variability  normal,  Climatologists  of a  makers.  to illustrate  b u t more  that  climatic  to  1970s.  increasingly reliant  the concept  variable  thirty  climatic period  prolonged  p o l i c y and d e c i s i o n  support  warm a n d s t a b l e  a g r i c u l t u r a l production  s o c i e t i e s became  weather  t o a more  t o a n end i n t h e e a r l y  unusual  doubled,  the recent  of the return  a f t e r an u n u s u a l l y  precisely  most  climatologists  a r e symptomatic  years  energy  t o many  of  of of  for climatic variability  the  2  planner  operates  response  will  identify  and  This  will  will  assist  that  are  have  to  define  provide them  less  realm  be  the  bounds  to  design  climatic  are  system  and  i s known a b o u t  upon  life  support  of  and  and  This  study  limitations  has  developed  hydroelectric  Planning  response  of  the  to  earliest  surprisingly,  River to  the  Indus,  sudden  the  first  a  c o n s t r u c t i o n of  formidable.  examine  i n the  the  locations. change  the  prepared rationale  variability case  of  been  generated  B.C.  adverse  of. p u r p o s e f u l to  Tigris  remedial network  has  conditions.  planning  climatic  settlements  periodic  a  climatic  society is  activity  of  response  urban  take  of  for climatic  in  planning  Euphrates,  to  policies  climatic  risks to  that  s t r u c t u r e of  of  to  Variability  examples  been  attempt  in different  response  perception  f l o o d s and  inhabitants  planning  generation  most  the  the  attempt  planning  for Climatic  in  of  a  power  Historically  Many  upon  pursue  u n c e r t a i n t i e s .are  the  human  uncertainty.  because  impacts  a  information  and  failure  and  i s an  ongoing  with  systems  the  systems  an  climatic  i t s variation  less  take.  of  u n c e r t a i n about  Even  to  on  d e c i s i o n makers  The  Climatologists  o f u n c e r t a i n t y and  founded  s u s c e p t i b l e to  variability.  climatic  i n the  and  on the  action.  Nile  of  Over  have,  variability.  the  inundations,  Some  banks were and  the  subject  this  time  embankments,  of  spurred  this  led  canals  and  to  3 i r r i g a t i o n works t o p r o t e c t the a g r i c u l t u r a l  economy  1900's t h e main d r i v i n g was  t h e s e t t l e m e n t s and  ( F r e u n d , 1974).  adverse  towns.  impact  the s o c i a l  and  I n the  early  f o r c e "behind p l a n n i n g i n E n g l a n d  t h e a p a l l i n g h o u s i n g and  industrial  improve  sanitary  In North America,  of r a p i d  u r b a n and  physical  environment  conditions  of the  c o n c e r n about  industrial  the  growth  has b e e n a  upon  major  motivation f o r planning. The  f o c u s o f p l a n n i n g has w i d e n e d  a predominant  tendency  to provide p h y s i c a l  social,  e n v i r o n m e n t a l , and  diverse  approach  economic  an u n l i m i t e d environment. n e s s and  Until  ability  However, t h e e m e r g i n g  of nature.  this is  new  view t h a t  that based  p l a n n i n g assumed  harness  the  n a t u r e was  reversal  here  from  the d e c i s i o n on p e r c e i v e d  The  to plan threats  o f our a g r i c u l t u r a l ,  that  s u p p o r t systems  historical  perspective  for climatic  supply  In  variability might of  our  suggests  variability  t o the a n t i c i p a t e d  e n e r g y and w a t e r  the  t o s e r v e man.  as an e l e m e n t  the v e r y l i f e  society.  physical  environmental conscious-  e r a of e n v i r o n m e n t a l concern, c l i m a t i c  adversely affect  socio-  M a n k i n d ' s renewed a w a r e n e s s o f h i s  b e g i n n i n g t o be p e r c e i v e d  urbanised  t o a more  p l a n n i n g p h i l o s o p h y a r e more  d e p e n d e n c e on n a t u r e i s a c o m p l e t e traditional  problems,  very r e c e n t l y  from  solutions for  b o t h p h y s i c a l and  t o c o n t r o l and  i t s associated  respectful  economic  incorporating  programs.  considerably  will  be  performance systems.  4 E s s e n t i a l l y t h e g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y h a s become more susceptible to climatic v a r i a b i l i t y  i n the l a s t t h i r t y to  f o r t y y e a r s , because i n a p e r i o d of c l i m a t i c a l l y  favourable  c o n d i t i o n s f o r f o o d p r o d u c t i o n (McKay, 1975) t h e w o r l d population v i r t u a l l y doubled,  global  interdependence  i n c r e a s e d a n d i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n and s e l f proliferated The  i n the developed  indulgent  consumption  world.  d o u b l i n g o f p o p u l a t i o n and t h e i n c r e a s e d  inter-  d e p e n d e n c e h a v e c r e a t e d an a g r i c u l t u r a l s u p p l y and d i s t r i b u t i o n system i n which p r o d u c t i o n l o s s e s a f f e c t the l i v e s sensitivity  of m i l l i o n s  i n the underdeveloped  o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l system has been  i n a study c a r r i e d Wisconsin  potentially world.  The  illustrated  out by a group a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f  ( C I A , 1974).  A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n has expanded  enormously w i t h the u t i l i s a t i o n  of marginal  l a n d s and t h e  development o f crop s t r a i n s  especially suited to capitalise  on t h e p r e v a i l i n g c l i m a t e .  A n a s s e s s m e n t was made o f t h e  implications  of a r e t u r n to c l i m a t i c  conditions prevailing  i n t h e 1800s when t h e m i d - w e s t e r n g r a i n p r o d u c i n g  areas of  t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w e r e much c o o l e r and w e t t e r a n d t h e snowlines  o f the Russian Steppes l a s t e d f o r longer  of time.  Under these c i r c u m s t a n c e s  p o p u l a t i o n c o u l d n o t be s u p p o r t e d ; become u n s u i t a b l e a n d t e c h n o l o g y overnight solutions.  annual  temperatures  world  m a r g i n a l lands would  w o u l d n o t be a b l e t o o f f e r  Furthermore,  more e n e r g y d e p e n d e n t .  the present  periods  a g r i c u l t u r e w o u l d become  The e f f e c t s o f d e c l i n i n g  average  on v a r i o u s r e g i o n s o f t h e w o r l d  i s shown  Food for Thought  Persons per hectare  5° Annual temperature centigrade  Figure 1:  Food for Thought  From: A study of Climatic Research as i t pertains to Intelligence, C.I.A., 1974-  in  Figure  in  China  would  by  be  crude,  1.  about  study  are very  During  i n temperature For  with  75$  a  period  i n a b s o l u t e terms  where  industrialisation animal  Industrial have 30$  of  the  energy  consumed  instance, States,  per  doubled  both  total  22.9$  in  use  per  the of  1955  1973  In  (B.C.  perceived  per  fuel  based  energy 80$  of  industrial electricity i n B.C.  are  to a  society, where  annual use  does  Sweden,  United  1976).  (Ward,  in British  not  for  of the  comparable  Columbia  doubling applies  users  of  for  13.6$  i s expected  Commission,  to  electricity  accounted This  inputs.  point  the  energy  This  world  substituted  consumer  of  energy  also  energy  living.  capita  energy  developed  effectively  of  1970.  Energy  have  E x c e s s i v e energy  living  to  consumption  2006  which  However  doubled,  capita  use  standards  half  heavy  has  i n the  of  now  capita, consumption  1972). energy  and  1973).  standards  between  that  i t s s u c c e s s o r , the  with  only  productivity  i s 50$  figure  belief  process  population  (ILEA,  g e n e r a l and  (BCPC,  to  uses  cut  i n exports.  especially  profligate  equate  while  The has  a  and  world's  necessarily  cut  power w i t h f o s s i l  society  encouraged  this  when p o p u l a t i o n  tremendously,  human and  will  indeed.  increased the  Canada  strengthens the real  this  utilisation  drop  40$.  associated  this  threats  1 C  A  1976).  to  of rise  Presently  y  74-9$ the This  of p r o v i n c i a l  latest means  public that  at  power  supplies, i s h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y ,  forecasts least  show a  half  the  decline  to  province's  50$  by  but 1990.  electricity  7 supplies  are  directly  variability.  by  increased  Other energy sources,  more i n d i r e c t l y extraction,  impacted  too,  are  t h r o u g h f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the  storage  and  climatic affected costs  U.S.  has  and  been p u b l i s h e d  Canada d u r i n g  consequences In  and  of p l a n n i n g  power by  lost  and  o f demand s e n s i t i v i t y  the  past  on  too  year  has  short  salaries $8  result  heating study  i n a 9$  i n Toronto  s t r u c k the  northern  have i n c r e a s e d The and  the  current  California,  (Science  and  symptomatic impression  the  instrumental that higher  (Economist,  in fuel  record.  fuel spending  1977).  Studies  Council  U.S.  and  i n the  o f Canada,  drought  above  i n 1972  stability.  space  1975).  This  state's  1936  that  would  average. of the  provide.  Rationing  power s h o r t a g e s  o f a s o c i e t y w h i c h has of c l i m a t i c  50$  i n that  months  of a c o l d s p e l l  western part  of system f a i l u r e .  threatened  winter  Canada i n F e b r u a r y  c o n s u m p t i o n by  cutbacks  three  from  consumption f o r  that a recurrence  drought  serious  the  s u g g e s t t h a t a -2.2°C d e p a r t u r e  disastrous Sahel  illustrations  output  fuel  eastern  have r e d u c e d p u b l i c  billion  increase  a l s o estimates  illustrated  an  n o r m a l d a i l y mean t e m p e r a t u r e s f o r t h e will  variability.  extreme c o l d i n the  been e s t i m a t e d  wages and  between $3  but  the  economic terms i t has  bills  of  distribution.  E n e r g y demand i s a l s o s e n s i t i v e t o c l i m a t i c Little  but  1  continent  similar  of water  in  agricultural  i n Washington  been deluded  by  a  are  false  8 In  summary t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r p l a n n i n g f o r c l i m a t i c  variability of are  i s r o o t e d i n perceived t h r e a t s t o the performance  the a g r i c u l t u r a l , vital  e n e r g y and w a t e r s u p p l y s y s t e m s ,  i n s u s t a i n i n g our urbanized s o c i e t y .  variability  should substitute c l i m a t i c  which  Climatic  s t a b i l i t y as a major  assumption i n planning. In  British  C o l u m b i a b e t w e e n 10$ a n d 15$ o f t h e t o t a l  e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e met f r o m a c l i m a t i c a l l y energy s o u r c e , h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y . of  the h y d r o e l e c t r i c  The p l a n n i n g a n d  development  system has l a r g e l y been p r e d i c a t e d  streamflow record from the period  I f , as t h i s  thesis w i l l  variability,  suggest, there i s evidence  I t i s i n this to  the  context that the study w i l l  assess the impacts of increased  variability  on t h e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a b i l i t y o f  c o m p o n e n t s - o f B.C. H y d r o ' s  to  climatic  M i c a a n d R e v e l s t o k e Dams and o t h e r  generating  integrated  system;  o u t l i n e a p l a n n i n g response that  will  d e v e l o p an i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i n g system for  B.C. t h a t w i l l  climatic  term  t h e n t h e managers o f t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c  s y s t e m do n o t a p p e a r t o be t a k i n g c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y account.  1977),  unusually  that the streamflow record i s unrepresentative of long historic  on a  1928-1968 (B.C. H y d r o ,  w h i c h c l i m a t o l o g i s t s h a v e a r g u e d t o be g l o b a l l y stable.  dependent  be more r e s i l i e n t  variability.  to  into  attempt:  9 The  methodology  described  used  to  achieve  these  objectives  is  below.  Methodology In  very  followed review  by  of  a  literature  on  planning  of  River  Basin.  the  were  and in  model  >of  based  modified  of  the  on  as  a  problem on  basic  system,  the  historic  climatic  regimes,  about  of  change  the  was  and  trends  the  climatic  a  the  Upper  dynamic.  proceeded  structure  local  i n the  was  this  Columbia  Working literature,  and  new  evolved.  the  change,  change,  a p p l i c a t i o n of  scanning  climatic  climatic  objectives  uncertainty,  the  research  with  theories  under and  of  climatic  o b j e c t i v e s was  of  global  reviewed  dynamics  in climatic  to  of  the  change,  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between  the  convergence  change  and  the  or  gain  the  global  divergence  availability  of  predictions.  This climatic of  set  literature  familiarity  causes  planning  on  h y d r o e l e c t r i c developments  were  perspectives  climatic  a  formulation  objectives  The  formulation  literature  to  these  the  of  model  and  terms,  review  development  The  broad  literature change  understanding  climatic  system  therefore,  the  review  presented the and  proved  considerable  structure  of  i t s impacts  planning  that  approach  the  uncertainty  system,  on to  subject  the  of in  states  life  support  be  developed  terms of  the  systems, would  have  10  to  be  flexible.  anticipated knowledge planning the  review with  of  data of  the  or  base.  of  with of  is  not  over  subject  appropriate support was  to  systems  developed,  tional  model  over  Climate many to the  of  under  methods and  the on the  using to  to  absorb  some  to  take  assuming  B.C.  focused  Hydro's  the  under of  uncertainty  context  that  susceptible  has  support  man  a  to  has  the  systems A  following  A.  Problem  Recognition  B.  System  C.  Identification  of  D.  Exploration  of  Uncertainty  E.  Formulation  of A l t e r n a t i v e s  Identification Uncertainty  and  model of  life  variability  more  uncertainty. the  total  controlling  climatic of  have  had  management  components  under  they  presented  hand  and  and  i n which  assumed  design  and  dealing  were  identification  other  the  literature  explicitly  human m a n i p u l a t i o n .  planning  is cyclical  the  without  those  human l i f e  of  in  the  uncertainty.  the  the  able  from  system which  planning, are  be  data,  to  approaches  purposeful  which  yet  is inferred  planning  to  A l l four  approaches  planning  planning to  and  limited  methodologies  control  enough  requirements  uncertainty  uncertainties. influence  on  These  respect  applied.  flexible  change,  based  approaches  partial  be  c o n t r o v e r s i a l developments  climatic  planning  management  to  certainty that  issue  reviewed  had  and  decisions  Pour  been  rapid  about  degree  present  It  tradi-  This phases:  11  The  case  F.  Evaluation  G.  Development  study  response  relative  variability Columbia five  out  A.  and  B.  as  follows:  of  the  D.  Exploration of  and  promising  and- r e p o r t s  collected  and  in  1900's.  review  a  and  The  climatic  analysed.  i n the of  these  of  the  first  phases  identification review  was  of  and  climatologists.  were  -  Uncertainty  identified and  the  -  The  of  subsequent  to  meteorological  Basin. feasibility  of  departments  variance  of  botany,  Tree-ring a n a l y s i s proved relevant  tree-ring  to  were  series  a  whole  Anomaly  periods  were  and  geology,  chronologies  i n the  f o r the  was  most  streamflow  forty  assessed  on  to  of  be  Tree-ring chronologies  relation  Upper  engineering  literature  literature  i n the  on  management  officials.  Uncertainty  forestry.  variability the  of  faculty  their  on  on  exploring uncertainty  geography  to  the  iteration  work  Hydro  variance  Columbia  with  relative  of  of Uncertainty  climatic  discussed  and  based  engineers  the  methods  Package  potential  one  -  Identification  Upper  of  The  interview with  for  various  impacts  Recognition  with  Commitment  inadequacy  process.  s t r u c t u r e and  review  data  this  Identification  systems  the  a  implements  of  an  of  h y d r o e l e c t r i c developments  s y s t e m was  discussions C.  the  Basin,  System  pertinent  to  the  Problem  studies  a  on  River  phases  carried  examining  of A l t e r n a t i v e s  were  examined  Columbia year the  Basin  period magnitude  12  and  duration  formed  of the perturbations.  the input  capability system  f o rs e n s i t i v i t y  of the Mica  Formulation  indications suggested  power  conditions.  of Alternatives  shortages  Options plans,  uncertainty  and monitoring  system  failure  The  time  application  of this  remainder  chapters.  under and  model  affected model  t h e need  three  this  of goal  River  Basin  variability. i n three  of the climatic  develops  a model  performance Chapter Dams  change  the climatic  approaches  and Revelstoke  and t h e  f o r and the p o s s i b l e  i s organized  variability.  because  formulation,  model  emerging  whose  of a  thesis  Columbia  characterises  I t also  by c l i m a t i c  from  to climatic  o f systems  to the Mica  critical  variability.  t o the Upper  and examines  uncertainty.  management  explorations of  t o avoid  of a planning  two i s a r e v i e w  Chapter  uncertainties,  consisting of  further  a process  of the report  Chapter  literature,  plans,  development  o f human r e s p o n s e The  certain  strategy  omitted  Through  t h e s i s has i l l u s t r a t e d  scope  variability  under  of climatic  has been  review,  initial  o f a l t e r n a t i v e s and f o r m u l a t i o n  constraints.  literature  the  package  The  was d e v e l o p e d  as a r e s u l t  evaluation  commitment of  contingency  components. -  arise  f o ra planning  operational  on t h e e n e r g y  of climatic  might  indicators  Dams a n d t h e i n t e g r a t e d  and thermal  of the consequences  historic  analyses  and Revelstoke  c o n s i s t i n g of hydro  E.  These  to  planning  f o rthe planning i s directly  four  applies  i n the Upper  this  Columbia  13  Basin five  and  other  contains On  the  components  the  the  been  considerably  would  climate  suggest.  Columbia  and  of of  A  the  more  recognized  and  planned  increasing  the  live  contact  academic  America.  and  the  i n d i c a t o r s the  of  storage  with  of  Basin  the  in  almost  certainly  lead  increased  energy  climatic  governmental  probably  instrumental  would  institutions  the to is  include  creating a  conservation  research  record  variability  options  in reservoirs, an  has  concludes  variability  Planning  Chapter  study  this  unless  for.  system.  study.  Columbia  would  supply  implementation  maintaining  integrated  v a r i a b l e than  River  i n power  with  Upper  recurrence  Peace  of  tree-ring  shortfalls  reserve,  the  conclusions  oasis  that  of  thermal  program  in association across  North  and  Chapter  CLIMATIC  The outline  purpose of :  -  of t h i s  Two  CHANGE  chapter  the atmospheric the  historic  the v a r i o u s change  i s to provide  a basic  system  climatic theories  trends of c l i m a t i c  the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f g l o b a l c l i m a t i c bounds, w i t h i n w h i c h t h e c l i m a t i c system of the Columbia R i v e r study a r e a c a n be e x p e c t e d t o f l u c t u a t e o v e r the 50-year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d . The  d i s t i n c t i o n between w e a t h e r , c l i m a t e ,  change and f l u c t u a t i o n s h o u l d defined  as 'the t o t a l i t y  p a r t i c u l a r place  be made.  of atmospheric  and t i m e ' , w h i l e  of weather e x p e r i e n c e s  at a place  climatic  Weather i s u s u a l l y conditions  climate  i s ' t h e sum t o t a l -  i n a year  or over  i n c l u d i n g n o r m a l a s w e l l a s extreme c o n d i t i o n s ' Climatic  change i s o f t e n u s e d  to a l l c l i m a t i c v a r i a n c e . describe  variance  measured  term c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y scale  of decades.  i n a generic  In this  study  on t h e s c a l e  years,  (Lamb,  sense i t will  be u s e d t o and t h e  measured  of nomenclature  1972).  referring  of centuries  relates to variance  A whole g a m b i t  at a  on t h e  associated  15 with the d i f f e r e n t  t i m e p e r i o d s has b e e n s u g g e s t e d  seems u n n e c e s s a r i l y will  The  f o c u s on d e c a d a l  Atmospheric The  solar  heat  radiation  heats  land  rates  and s e a m a s s e s .  filtered  i n turn  space,  i s expended  results  from the  radiation  o f t h e e a r t h and t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f The i n c o m i n g  solar  energy,  and t i l t  which  energy  i s scattered  2  47$ ( O l i v e r ,  About  and r e f l e c t e d  and E^O a b s o r b  back  into  A t the lower another  18$ and  1973). of the earth's  and a t m o s p h e r e a r e d e t e r m i n a n t s  o f t h e amounts  absorption.  snow and i c e ( 4 0 - 8 5 $ )  varies  of the e a r t h ,  or albedo  f o r heat  energy  i n horizontal  h e a t i n g and l o n g - w a v e  general r e f l e c t i v i t y  available  (5-30$).  re-radiates  t h r o u g h s t r a t o s p h e r e and t r o p o s p h e r e .  earth absorbs  surface  Absorbed  hence m a i n t a i n i n g a g l o b a l  o f a i r masses, w h i c h  c l o u d s , d u s t and C 0  The  for  the g l o b e , which  by d u s t and c l o u d s a t a l l e l e v a t i o n s .  levels the  c a n be c o n c e i v e d o f energy.  of years with the o r b i t  25-30$ o f i n c o m i n g space  system  by s o l a r  of s o l a r  the r o t a t i o n  over m i l l i o n s is  into  driven  circulation  differential cooling,  circulation  Much o f t h e e n e r g y  vertical  which  variability.  engine  some o f t h e h e a t equilibrium.  p l a n n i n g study-,  System  atmospheric  as a g i a n t  and  complex f o r t h i s  hut t h i s  The a l b e d o  i s relatively  high  and much l o w e r f o r v e g e t a t e d a r e a s  Oceans have a w i d e r  range  of r e f l e c t i v i t y  (2-78$)  IB-  depending  on  angle  surface  (Lamb,  earth's  surface  a  variable  major  Terrestrial particular house  it  is  to At  is  albedo,  the  are  Changes  thus to  in  oceans  The  climate  tends  to  periods is  has  be  the  that,  daily  and  of the  been  transmitted  earth  and  is  the  more than  (Lamb,  1 9 7 2 ) .  terrestrial  and  HgO,  surface  interaction the the  between  hydrologic global  climate.  are  fluctuations.  changing, the  in  green-  radiation  and  change  has  been  the  introduction  to  which  relationships  and  and  radiation  through  analysis.  1 9 7 4 ) .  wave  CO^  becomes  so-called  from  solar  their  besides  by  the  sea the  atmosphere  the  affecting  changes  in meteorological  almost  level  and  climate  reinforced  out  levels  always  the  of  1 5 $  (Kukla,  short  sent  components  climatic  snow a l b e d o  greenhouse  landmasses  factors  perception  interglacial,  and  ice,  by  solar  global and  a  the  and  absorb  to  rotation  major  Trends  CO^  of  7 - 5 $  creating  radiation  broad  Historic  CO^,  and  roughness  balance  absorbed  incoming  wave  for  snow and  analogous  the  these  responsible  popular  and  and  between  heat  is  H^O  earth's  the  by  the  dustloading  atmosphere, cycle  in  The  very  radiation,  covered  clouds  long a  With  1 9 7 2 ) .  effect.  transparent  insolation  radiation by  situation  of  static.  The  millions  contrary from This of  the  glacial  to  misconception  30-year  inferred of  to  normal  normality  households  in  such  comments as  'the t e m p e r a t u r e  the year'.  The  i s above n o r m a l  w e a t h e r i t s e l f has  f o r the time of •  l a t e l y seen t o c h a l l e n g e  n o r m a l i t y , t h r o u g h d r o u g h t s , c r o p f a i l u r e s and c o n d i t i o n s i n the e a s t e r n N o r t h Americas. the advent  of v o c a l c l i m a t i c  extreme w i n t e r  This together with  change p r o p o n e n t s  has  spread  c o n c e r n i n many p a r t s o f t h e w o r l d . Reviewing c l i m a t i c 1,000,000 y e a r s variability  (Fig.  c h a n g e on t i m e s c a l e s f r o m  2/>) i t i s i m m e d i a t e l y o b v i o u s  i s a key c h a r a c t e r i s t i c  last f u l l  s c a l e i c e age  c o o l i n g t r e n d has a little  i c e age  reached  relatively  8,000 y e a r s  s i n c e then a f l u c t u a t i n g but set i n .  o c c u r r e d b e t w e e n t h e 1 5 t h and  4 2 , 0 0 0 , 23,000 a n d  generally  I n t h e l a s t m i l l e n n i u m ( F i g . 2)  A number o f q u a s i - p e r i o d i c  oscillations  2,500 y e a r s and  18th  over  centuries.  100,000,  o t h e r s i n the o r d e r of  200  100 y e a r s h a v e b e e n p e r c e i v e d ( F e d e r a l C o u n c i l f o r S c i e n c e  and T e c h n o l o g y ,  1974).  23,000 y e a r  cycles  t o r e l a t e t o the o r b i t a l changes of the  earth.  are  thought  The  changes i n the t i l t  The  100,000 and  of the e a r t h ' s a x i s are b e l i e v e d  f o l l o w t h e 42,000 y e a r c y c l e . or  and  e x i s t e d some 17,000 y e a r s  a g l o b a l maximum t e m p e r a t u r e was  b e f o r e p r e s e n t and  to  that  one. The  ago,  to  of c l i m a t i c behaviour  t h a t on a l l t i m e s c a l e s t h e p r e s e n t c l i m a t e i s a warm  100  2,500 y e a r c y c l e r e m a i n s  the l i t t l e  i c e age.  The  100  The  cause  f o r the  to  neoglacial  unknown b u t t h i s c y c l e  includes  t o 200 y e a r c y c l e s a r e i n  d i s p u t e but a t l e a s t t h r e e s c i e n t i s t s  (Dansgaard,  1971;  Lamb,  48 M A I N T R E N D S IM G L O B A L AIR  TEMPERATURE  COLO WARM  COLD  i—r  1  0  C L I M A T E : THE PAST MILLION Y E A R S  WARM LEGEND: 1.  T H E R M A L M A X I M U M O F 1940s  2.  L I T T L E ICE A G E  3.  YOUNGER DRYAS COLD  i 1 I .2 .4 .6  4.  PRESENT INTERGLACIAL (HOLOCENE)  AT°C  5.  P E N U L T I M A T E I N T E R G L A C I A L (EEMLAN)  INTERVAL  A . T H E L A S T 10* Y R S . B. T H E L A S T 1 0 MID — L A T I T U D E COLD-  WARM  AIR  YRS.  3  TEMPERATURE  COLD  G L O B A L ICE V O L U M E  WARM  MAX  MIN  -0  ~10°C C. T H E L A S T 1 0  4  ~10°C YRS.  D. T H E L A S T 1 0  5  YRS.  ~5x10 E . T H E LAST 10  6  1 6  m  3  YRS.  Figure 1—Main trends jn global climate: tho past million years, (a) Changes in the five-year average surface temperatures over the region 0 - SON; (b) Winter severity index for eastern Europe; (c) Generalized northern hemisphere air-temparature trends, bas<*d o n fluctuations in alpine glaciers, changes in tree-iines, marginal fluctuations in continental glaciers, and shifts in vegetation patterns recorded in pollen spectra; (d) Generalized northern hemisphere air-temperalure trends based on mid-latitude sea-surface temperature, pollen records, and on worldwide sea-level records; (e) Fluctuations in global ice-volume recorded as changes i n isotopic composition of fossil plankton in deep-sea core V23-233. Reproduced from Report of the G A R P Panel on Climatic Variation (submitted to U S C / G A R P ) .  Figure  2:  Main Trends  From:  Report 1974.  i n G l o b a l C l i m a t e The P a s t M i l l i o n  o f t h e A d Hoc P a n e l  on t h e P r e s e n t  Years  19  1972;  Willet,  century,  1975)  b u t no  that period discusses  acknowledge t h e i r  c o n c l u s i v e evidence  (FCST,  1974).  the s h o r t e r term  points  should  be  dulled  by  apparent  the  oscillations analysis  For  an a v e r a g e  temperature  than  100  variability logical  has  to  hypothesis Two  i t i s wrong t o  statistically  shown t h a t v e r y change f r o m  dynamics, and  abrupt full  (Dansgaard,  1971)-  be these  i c e core c h a n g e s have  glaciation  Secondly,  a p p e a r s m a l l when v i e w e d f r o m  t o be  prior  warmer t h a n p r e s e n t l y e x p e r i e n c e d  p e r s p e c t i v e , but  have p r o v e n (Bryson,  may  Firstly,  smoothness of c l i m a t i c  i n s t a n c e , the  years  been f o u n d  last  c y c l e s a t l e n g t h (see below).  have b e e n a v e r a g e d  i n Greenland  has  solar climatic  borne i n mind.  occurred.  less  The  e x i s t e n c e i n the  very  on t h e human time  significant  to took  decadal  the c l i m a t o -  scale  these  i n terms of f o o d  changes  supply  1974).  Climatic Evolution The as  e x i s t e n c e of the  evidence  of complete p e r i o d i c i t y  Some s c h o l a r s p r e s e n t  a case  e v o l u t i o n a r y development A third  c y c l e s should not  school adhering  i n the  be  interpreted  climatic evolution.  f o r a n o n - l i n e a r almost  of the c l i m a t e  (Lorenz,  t o what i s c a l l e d  the  1967).  Hearst  phenomenon have combined b o t h  i d e a s , w i t h the major  b e i n g r e c u r r i n g f e a t u r e s , but  interspersed with  ' a u t o - e x c u r s i o n s ' from  these  trends.  The  random  three  trends  random concepts  20 require  different  prediction. monitoring can  They  be t h e s t a r t  haunt  In generic  o f t h e new  i n terms  fundamental  long  statistical  of Climatic this  change  derived  sources  from  climatic  system,  feedback  links.  Examples  the term  referring  external  trend,  noise.  an  This  response  mean  auto  dilemma  i s likely  f o r some  c l i m a t i c change  have  and i n t e r n a l . that  while  output,  have  been  classed  External  no f e e d b a c k  internal  causes  causes  i n i t s  links  and these  will  i n two  with  the  are characterised  and a n t r o p o g e n i c a l l y  orbit  induced  pollution.  p o l l u t i o n are cornerstones  scales.  causes are  are the earth's  a s COg, p a r t i c u l a t e a n d f r e o n  hypotheses  i s used  t o f l u c t u a t i o n s a t a l l time  mechanisms  of external  the s o l a r  cooling  f o r a  Change  section  meaning  particulate  problems  an e s t a b l i s h e d  term  o f a human  o f a n a l y s i s and  time.  categories:  such  both  v a r i a t i o n from  the formulation  Climatic  tilt,  pose  A  or merely  considerable  Sources  also  program.  excursion to  approaches  CO^  by  and  sources  and  i n t h e warming and  be d i s c u s s e d  i n detail  below. Freon a  p o l l u t i o n has only  potential modifier  recently  of the climate.  known a s c h l o r o f l u o r o c a r b o n ,  gained Freon,  interacts with  prominence  as  scientifically the chemistry  of  21 the p r o t e c t i v e  ozone l a y e r , r e s u l t i n g i n i n c r e a s e d  transparency to u l t r a v i o l e t  light.  p r o c e s s i s an e s t a b l i s h e d f a c t , whether  Although the p h y s i c a l  there i s considerable  doubt  the q u a n t i t i e s released through aerosols are  s u f f i c i e n t t o be s i g n i f i c a n t .  The n a t u r a l l y  oscillating  l e v e l o f o z o n e , has b e e n m o n i t o r e d f o r t o o s h o r t a p e r i o d to provide c o n c l u s i v e evidence (Bain,  1976).  R e t u r n i n g t o i n t e r n a l causes of change,  i t s h o u l d be  n o t e d t h a t t h e f e e d b a c k m e c h a n i s m s c a n be p o s i t i v e  (reinforcing  the d e v i a t i o n ) o r n e g a t i v e ( c o u n t e r a c t i n g t h e d i s t u r b a n c e ) i n nature.  Furthermore  our understanding of these  mechanisms i s v e r y l i m i t e d  (NAS, 1 9 7 5 ) .  i m p o r t a n t i n t e r n a l causes o f change,  adjustment  Two o f t h e most  the  atmosphere-ocean  r e l a t i o n s h i p s and t h e a t m o s p h e r e - c r y o s p h e r e  system;,, w i l l  be  discussed. The its  atmosphere-ocean  s y s t e m h a s many r e l a t i o n s h i p s a n d  i m p o r t a n c e c a n r e a d i l y be u n d e r s t o o d , c o n s i d e r i n g t h e  o c e a n s r e c e i v e h a l f t h e s o l a r r a d i a t i o n and h a v e a c o m p l i c a t e d p a t t e r n of f l o w s that t r a n s f e r heat h o r i z o n t a l l y . s t o r e v a s t amounts o f e n e r g y i n t h e t o p 100 m depending  on s u r f a c e - a i r t e m p e r a t u r e r a t i o ,  t r a n s f e r o c c u r s b e t w e e n t h e two m e d i a .  The  oceans  l a y e r and  sensible  In addition  heat water  v a p o u r p r e s s u r e r a t i o s r e g u l a t e t h e t r a n s f e r o f m o i s t u r e . Lamb (1972) h a s b e e n a b l e t o r e l a t e some o c e a n i c t e m p e r a t u r e anoma l i e s t o t h e w e a t h e r a f e w months The  atmosphere-cryosphere  hence.  system has l o n g  been  22 a c k n o w l e d g e d as an i m p o r t a n t tions.  H o w e v e r , i t was  that a systematic be d e t e r m i n e d .  variable  not u n t i l  record  Both the  of the  in climatic  satellite  extent  fluctua-  photography  o f snow and  i c e could  i n c r e a s e d s u r f a c e a l b e d o and  the  energy r e q u i r e d i n the m e l t i n g process  lead to a cooling  trend.  o f 1972/3 may  The  anomalous w e a t h e r p a t t e r n s  been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the u n u s u a l l y coverage i n the preceding  extensive  three years  c a u t i o n must be  as s a t e l l i t e  mapping i s o n l y seven y e a r s  The  Hypothesis  Warming  of f o s s i l  by  the  end  interpretation  old.  argue t h a t the  f u e l s r e l e a s e s amounts o f 00^  atmosphere, which w i l l  ice  1974).  exercised i n this  Proponents of t h i s h y p o t h e s i s use  snow and  (Kukla,  Considerable  have  into  increased the  of t h i s c e n t u r y  lead to  c o n s i d e r a b l e w a r m i n g o f t h e g l o b a l a t m o s p h e r e (2.4°C). term runaway greenhouse i s a l s o used t o d e s c r i b e  a  The  this  scenario. The  amount o f a t m o s p h e r i c C 0  n a t u r a l c a r b o n d i o x i d e c y c l e has to  10.2$  a g a i n by  i n 1970 1990,  a b s o r b 50$  and  p r o d u c e d and  i n c r e a s e 3$ a n n u a l l y . s c i e n t i s t s a 10$  produced i n excess of  increased from  .9$  in  the 1900  i s expected to double i t s c o n c e n t r a t i o n  assuming t h a t the  o f CO^  2  oceans w i l l  continue  t h a t the a b s o l u t e  B a s e d on c a l c u l a t i o n s by  increase i n C0  o  has  to  amount  will  various  been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  a  23  3°C At  rise  i n g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e  (Broecker,  1 9 7 5 ) .  t h i s r a t e t h e g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e i s a n t i c i p a t e d t o  rise  by  2.4°C  by t h e e n d o f t h e c e n t u r y .  been c r i t i c i s e d  by many.  Willet  t h e p i o n e e r i n g w o r k on t h e 00^ concludes that  This  by r e f e r e n c e t o  ( 1 9 7 5 ) ,  and w a t e r v a p o u r  "either doubling  t h e o r y has  absorption  o r h a l v i n g the present  amount o f c a r b o n d i o x i d e c o u l d a l t e r b u t l i t t l e  the t o t a l  amount o f r a d i a t i o n a c t u a l l y a b s o r b e d b y t h e a t m o s p h e r e a n d therefore  seemingly could not appreciably  change t h e  a v e r a g e t e m p e r a t u r e o f t h e e a r t h o r be a t a l l e f f e c t i v e i n the p r o d u c t i o n ( 1 9 7 5 )  o f marked c l i m a t i c changes".  has s u g g e s t e d t h e warming e f f e c t has been s u p p r e s s e d  by a n a t u r a l c o o l i n g t r e n d and  Broecker  observed i n the Greenland  t h a t t h e warming t r e n d w i l l  s t a r t i n t h e 1980s.  However, i t does n o t a p p e a r as i f t h e v a r i a n c e observed values trend  icecore  of the  a r o u n d t h e mean o f t h e n a t u r a l c o o l i n g  i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from the variance  around  t h e mean o f t h e c o m b i n e d c o o l i n g a n d w a r m i n g t r e n d ,  hence  the h y p o t h e s i s  that  c a n n o t be c o n f i r m e d .  Willet  expects  CO^ h a s c o n t r i b u t e d much l e s s t h a n 5 $ o f t h e r e c e n t  changes  i n g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e a n d Lamb ( 1 9 7 2 ) s t a t e s t h a t i n view of recent  observed c o o l i n g trends  h a v e h a d a more p o w e r f u l  effect.  o t h e r a g e n t s must  24  The  Cooling; Hypothesis This hypothesis  suggests  g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e induced their  particulate  reflectivity  as a r e s u l t  pollution.  Historically  were f i r e s ,  d e s e r t dust  and  Agung  the sources  (Bryson,  i s estimated  locations  that fine  reflected  pollution  Major  Krakatoa  (1883)  i n cooling i n  ash particulates (Lamb,  1972).  remain i n  This creates  particulate  G r e e n l a n d ) and a n a l y s e s  agricultural particulate concluded  (1815),  b u t a i d e d by sample s t a t i o n s  (Hawaii,  solar  of p a r t i c u l a t e  i n a s s e s s i n g the atmospheric  a t a n y one t i m e ,  reduce  1974).  t h e a t m o s p h e r e f o r 2-12 y e a r s uncertainty  by v i r t u e o f  and v o l c a n i c a c t i v i t y .  (1963) a r e a l l e g e d l y  subsequent years It  Particulates,  e r u p t i o n s s u c h a s Tambora  of the  o f i n c r e a s i n g a man-  and b a c k s c a t t e r w i l l  radiation.  volcanic  a gradual cooling  loading  i n remote  o f i n d u s t r i a l and  generation, s c i e n t i s t s  have  t h a t s i n c e 1940, man a s w e l l a s v o l c a n o e s  has b e e n  capable  of a f f e c t i n g  the climate.  The man i n d u c e d  loading  i s estimated  t o be between 8 t o 24 x 10^ m e t r i c  an amount c o m p a r a b l e t o m o d e r a t e v o l c a n i c Increases  i n t h e o r d e r o f 2 x 10^ m e t r i c  t o be c a p a b l e 0.4°C  effects  1974).  tons  are assessed  P r o j e c t i o n s o f t h e maximum  values  by  thermal  and t h e CO^ warming t r e n d show t h e two would  c a n c e l each o t h e r out ( M i t c h e l l , observed  tons,  activity.  o f r e d u c i n g t h e g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e  (Bryson,  cooling  particulate  1972).  F i g u r e -3 shows t h e  o f g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e  and t h e warming  25  Figure B—Trends of global mean temperature, 1860-2000 A D . Upper smooth curve represents warming contribution by CO* growth in tho atmosphere. Lower smooth curve represents probable maximum cooling contribution by particle increases. Broken curve is the observed temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere, equivalent to the curve in Figure 1-A after adjustment to remove estimated Inhomogeneity associated with local urban g'osvlh effects. After Mitchell (1972).  P i g u r e 3: Prom:  Warming or C o o l i n g ?  Report o f the A d Hoc P a n e l on the P r e s e n t I n t e r g l a c i a l ,  1974.  26  and  cooling  hypothesis particle  effects. i s that  A  critical  This  ashes which s e t t l e a t  may  be  the  e f f e c t s , of the  levels  are  opposite  coarser  at  and  from v o l c a n i c  explaining  o f any  f u e l s are  absorption  f a c t that earlier  latitudes  Hence, W i l l e t a r g u e s ,  of c o o l i n g  and  disappears  b o t h the i n the  cooling  been  this likely  nearing  are  either  by  size, different  suggests  the  the  warming t r e n d s  in  completely. and  warming peaks'  these  explained  similar fluctuations  fluctuations.  that  then  two  fluctuations  more l i k e l y  If  be  h i g h l a t i t u d e s than they  substantial  have c a u s e d  p a s t , namely s o l a r  analysis  i s unexplained  the  g l o b a l mean t e m p e r a t u r e which r e p e a t e d l y  the  i s considered n e g l i b l e ,  fluctuations  o c c u r 25-30 y e a r s subtropical  the.grounds that  balancing  recent  Furthermore the  on  and  warming e f f e c t o f CO^ necessity  i t has  warming i s  r a d i a t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are  ash,  volcanic  In view of  fossil  over  i s more s k e p t i c a l a b o u t b o t h t r e n d s .  or p o s i t i v e ,  distribution  cooling  tropospheric  e f f e c t o f human p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n can  negative  in  dust  (1972) c o n c l u d e s t h a t  to predominate at l e a s t u n t i l  the  for fine  l e v e l s , but  ( W i l l e t , 1975).  Mitchell  Willet  true  stratospheric  argued  exhaustion.  i n the  p a r t i c l e r e f l e c t i o n predominates  absorption.  uncertainty  assumption  in  do  causes. the  by  factors  in  the  27 The  Solar Climatic  Hypothesis  This hypothesis suggests that c l i m a t i c a p p e a r t o be r e l a t e d  fluctuations  t o c y c l i c a l sunspot a c t i v i t y .  s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n s e x i s t between l a t i t u d i n a l t e m p e r a t u r e and p r e c i p i t a t i o n , explanations are offered. identified:  circulation,  of p h y s i c a l  Six solar activity  cycles  are  t h e 11 y e a r , t h e d o u b l e s u n s p o t , t h e l o n g e r  s e c u l a r 80-90 y e a r and year cycles.  only hints  Although  The  first  t h e l o n g e r 100,000, 42,000 and t h r e e c y c l e s are used  to predict  c l i m a t i c f l u c t u a t i o n s , w h i l e the l a s t t h r e e are used project climatic  changes.  of tens of thousands  The  23,000  to  l a t t e r a r e on t h e t i m e  o f y e a r s and a r e r e g a r d e d  scale  irrelevant  f o r p l a n n i n g purposes. The o n l y and  11 y e a r c y c l e c o r r e l a t e s t o e q u a t o r i a l i s not  judged s i g n i f i c a n t  other than i n r e i n f o r c i n g  the extremes of the double sunspot c y c l e . c y c l e a l t e r n a t e s b e t w e e n a n 80 a n d these phases the d i f f e r e n t a c t i v i t y are r e l a t e d  temperature  The  long secular  100 y e a r p h a s e .  l e v e l s and r a t e s o f  Within  sunspot  to a very detailed picture  of  climatic  f l u c t u a t i o n , d e s c r i b i n g decadal temperature, c i r c u l a t i o n precipitation patterns f o r different climatic  latitudes.  The  and  basic  e x p r e s s i o n of the double sunspot c y c l e i s the  sharp  c o n t r a s t s i n g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s i n the w i n t e r seasons a t h i g h a l t i t u d e s .  Not  o n l y does W i l l e t  suggest  behaviour of the climate corresponds v e r y c l o s e l y to c y c l e s i n t h e l a s t c e n t u r y , b u t t h r o u g h o u t t h e 1950's  that  sunspot he  28  published have  subsequently The  charged  zonal  of f o r e c a s t s based been  corroborated  physical explanations particle  believed  emanations  to provide  circulation  northern poor  a number  a clue  state  A  or solar  blocking  of research  (Willet,  which  experience. i n changes  winds.  to the sharp  lack  o f knowledge  by  are sought  and c e l l u l a r  latitudes.  on h i s m o d e l ,  i n the  These a r e  contrasts  i n strong  phenomena i n i s blamed  f o r the  1975)•  G l o b a l P r e d i c t i o n s B a s e d on t h e Solar Climatic Hypothesis The change,  three  but only  documented is  hypotheses  sought  other  g l o b a l mean  cooling  would  equator  resulting  the  other  Willet's his 2030  hand  to smaller  would  lead  conciseness,  hence  i n  full:  The r e a s o n  variables at  two h y p o t h e s e s  i n a more  has  of the a n a l y s i s , which  temperature.  lead  scenarios f o r  hypothesis  detail.  climatic  p r e d i c t i o n s there  i s quoted  climatic  the richness  The  to various  and z o n a l  to explain three  latitudes. with  the solar  i n decadal  undoubtedly  lead  seems  little  the scenario  concerned  between  variable climate. stable  has  level, global  differentials  to longer  f o r this  different  were m e r e l y  A t a broad  been  Warming  periods.  scope  pole  for  f o r the period  and  on  As t o improving up t o  " P r e d i c t i o n s f o r the next double s e c u l a r c y c l e y e a r s , 1975-2155  180  The f o l l o w i n g p r e d i c t i o n s a r e b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e n e x t two s e c u l a r c y c l e s , 80 and 100 y e a r s r e s p e c t i v e l y , w i l l f o l l o w t h e s o l a r c h r o n o l o g y and r e l a t e d c l i m a t i c p a t t e r n o f t h e l a s t two a s o u t l i n e d a b o v e . The d o u b l e s u n s p o t c y c l e i s c o n s i d e r e d o n l y i n t h e d e t a i l o f t h e n e x t 30 y e a r s , and f u d g e d somewhat, o w i n g t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t y as t o i t s i m m i n e n t r e v e r s a l o f p h a s e , i t s t e n d e n c y t o be l e s s d o m i n a n t d u r i n g t h e f i r s t r e l a t i v e l y q u i e t h a l f o f t h e l o n g s e c u l a r c y c l e , and i g n o r a n c e as t o i t s m a n i f e s t a t i o n s i n t h e 1795-1875 p e r i o d o f t h e l a s t 80 y e a r c y c l e , w h i c h s h o u l d be a n a l o g o u s t o t h e n e x t 80 y e a r s . With these r e s e r v a t i o n s , the p r e d i c t i o n s are ventured: (1)  The  n e x t 25  following  years  (a) A renewed f a l l o f t e m p e r a t u r e i n a l l l a t i t u d e s to s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower l e v e l s than those reached i n the mid-60's. Whether t h i s f a l l s t a r t s i m m e d i a t e l y and t h e l o w e s t l e v e l s a r e r e a c h e d i n t h e 8 0 ' s , o r s t a r t s i n t h e 80's and l o w e s t l e v e l s a r e r e a c h e d i n t h e 9 0 s d e p e n d s on w h e t h e r t h e double sunspot c y c l e r e v e r s e s phase. 1  (b) No.major p r o l o n g e d d r o u g h t i n l o w e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s except p o s s i b l y a l o n g the subt r o p i c a l margin (e.g. Mexican border s t a t e s of the United States). W h e t h e r s u c h an o c c u r r e n c e i s c e n t e r e d i n the f i r s t or second decade ahead d e p e n d s on w h e t h e r t h e d o u b l e s u n s p o t c y c l e r e v e r s e s phase. I f n o t , t h e 1975-85 p r e d i c t i o n s t a n d s . (c) In higher middle l a t i t u d e s , a predominantly d r y p e r i o d d u r i n g t h e n e x t two d e c a d e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n C a n a d a and n o r t h e r n E u r o p e , w i t h a s e v e r e d r o u g h t decade p o s s i b l y a c r o s s the Canadian p l a i n s . (d) In subtropical latitudes, also a p r e d o m i n a n t l y d r y p e r i o d d u r i n g t h e n e x t two d e c a d e s , w i t h a n o t h e r decade o f s e v e r e drought l i k e l y i n s o u t h e r n A s i a n and s u b t r o p i c a l A f r i c a , b u t d e c a d a l timing i s uncertain.  30  (2)  The  period  2000-2030  A.D.  (a) An a b r u p t r e t u r n t o m a r k e d l y warmer w e a t h e r i n m i d d l e and h i g h e r l a t i t u d e s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t decade of the next c e n t u r y , f o l l o w e d r a t h e r q u i c k l y by a r e t u r n o f t e m p e r a t u r e s t o t h e l o w l e v e l s p r e d i c t e d f o r t h e n e x t two d e c a d e s . The warmth of the 2000-2010 decade w i l l n o t a p p r o a c h t h a t o f t h e 1931-60 p e r i o d i n d e g r e e . (b) The warm d e c a d e w i l l t e n d t o be w e t t e r i n h i g h e r m i d d l e and i n s u b t r o p i c a l l a t i t u d e s , t e r m i n a t i n g the p r o s p e c t i v e d r o u g h t c o n d i t i o n s i n those l a t i t u d e s . I t w i l l be d r i e r i n l o w e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s , but s t r e s s c o n d i t i o n s of drought and c o a s t a l s'torminess w i l l n o t a p p r o a c h t h o s e o f t h e 1931-60 p e r i o d . (c) latitude decades wetness dryness (Willet,  The r e t u r n t o c o o l e r c o n d i t i o n s ( l o w z o n a l c i r c u l a t i o n ) d u r i n g t h e 2010-30 should witness a l s o a r e t u r n to r e l a t i v e i n l o w e r m i d d l e l a t i t u d e s and r e l a t i v e i n h i g h e r m i d d l e and s u b t r o p i c a l l a t i t u d e s . " 1975)  Por  p e r i o d b e y o n d 2030 he  the  period  of  little  i c e age  i c e age  1931-60 w i l l  be  predicts that  warm  r e p e a t e d b e t w e e n 2110-2140 and  i s p r e d i c t e d f o r 2200-2550.  is unlikely  the  f o r the next  than l i k e l y w i t h i n the next  A full  10,000 y e a r s ,  but  a  scale i s more  30,000.  Gonelusions This  chapter  w e a t h e r and  has  climatic  reviewed the b a s i c systems.  on a l l t i m e s c a l e s was appears u n u s u a l l y change a r e  warm.  The  variability  e s t a b l i s h e d and The  three  components of  the  of the  present  hypotheses of  a l l b a s e d on f a c t o r s e x t e r n a l t o t h e  the climate  climate climatic  climatic  system:  particulate  pollution  (warming) and s o l a r a c t i v i t y  (cooling),  CO^  (variability).  pollution The i n t e r n a l  f e e d b a c k s y s t e m s do n o t p e r f o r m a c a u s a l r o l e  i n climatic  change a n d f l u c t u a t i o n a n d a p p e a r t o be h o m e o s t a t i c i n nature. cooling  Considerable uncertainty  exists  i n the physics of  a n d w a r m i n g c a u s e d b y p a r t i c l e s a n d CC^  respectively.  U n l e s s a s i g n i f i c a n t b r e a k d o w n o f t h e ozone l a y e r climatic variability by  solar  occurs  i s more l i k e l y t h a n n o t be g o v e r n e d  activity.  I f a s t h i s c h a p t e r h a s s u g g e s t e d a more  variable  c l i m a t e i s l i k e l y t o g o v e r n t h e w o r l d , t h e n one must c o n c l u d e that  t e s t i n g t h e Upper C o l u m b i a R i v e r B a s i n  system f o r c l i m a t i c  Hydroelectric  regimes other than the normal  1928-68, i s ' a n e c e s s i t y  to avoid surprises  period  i n sudden  e x c e s s e s and s h o r t a g e s o f f l o w i n t h e C o l u m b i a R i v e r . selection  of h i s t o r i c ,  c l i m a t i c r e g i m e s t o be s i m u l a t e d  s h o u l d be g u i d e d , b u t n o t e x c l u s i v e l y global  predictions.  d e t e r m i n e d by t h e  The  32  Chapter  Three  TOWARDS A P R O C E S S POR P L A N N I N G POR C L I M A T I C  The 1.  five  objectives  of this  c h a p t e r a r e t.o d i s c u s s :  The c h a r a c t e r i s a t i o n o f t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s p r e s e n t e d climatic  2.  VARIABILITY  The need  by  variability. f o rintegrating, climatic analysis  i n decision  processes. 3.  The r e v i e w  of emerging approaches  of planning  under  uncertainty.. 4.  An o u t l i n e  5.  The c u r r e n t  of a planning  process  forclimatic  limitations to the f e a s i b i l i t y  variability.  of this  process. The of our  previous  chapter has presented  some o f t h e t h e o r i e s knowledge  that  human r e s p o n s e response  lies  about  require  t o c l i m a t i c change. i n the inadvertent  to a c l i m a t i c regime,  unusual  i n both  (Chapter One).  short  and l o n g  version  c l i m a t i c change and t h e gaps i n  narrowing  systems  a condensed  i n the development The n e e d  fine tuning  that  f o r such of l i f e  now a p p e a r s  term time  t o be  perspectives  of a  a support highly  33  Climatic  Uncertainties  The  c l i m a t i c system p r e s e n t s  uncertainties referring climatic  to  one  be  argued  least  the  longer  two  fluctuations  believes that  year cycle  on  at  variability  If  adopt  on  time s c a l e s . the  scale  of  cyclical  a number  of  r i g h t down t o that  term trends  nature  time s c a l e s  the  11  year  o f two  of  Both of  analysis The and,  of and  e x i s t from the  one.  Por is  climatic  variability  temperature  and  i n terms  precipitation.  add  complexity  i n the  of the  planning process  mould f u t u r e  the  and  planning  uncertainties. i s to  conditions,  p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of  below.  change  s i g n i f i c a n t i n the  of t h e  we  climatic  are  purpose  100,000  illustrated  occurrence the  may  superimposed  t h e i r p o s s i b l e combinations  to  it  t h i s study  and  i f possible,  interest  and  climate  l a r g e l y been m o n i t o r e d  i t s manifestations,  these v a r i a b l e s  sequences  the  c l i m a t i c change as  c l i m a t i c s y s t e m has  change  oscillations.  of  —  The  Climatic  climatic variability of  of  centuries  r e f e r r i n g to d e c a d a l  i n the  concept  on  a complex s e t  anticipate  hence t h e r e  future  climate.  is  an  Predictability and  length  declines with  of time h o r i z o n  Therefore  uncertainty  level  distance  and  planning  efforts  resolution, impossible. prediction  increasing levels  at which the  increases  with  are  d i r e c t e d at  system i s viewed.  an  of time h o r i z o n . the  of r e s o l u t i o n  increasing resolution  Unfortunately  most  higher  of  levels  where p r e d i c t i o n becomes more d i f f i c u l t C l i m a t o l o g i s t s tend  to  support  i s a p r e r e q u i s i t e to planning  predictability  i s a l o n g way  the  (Hare,  o f f f o r most  view  (Mason,  study area  variability  1976),  the an  predictive ability  and  for  However,  i s f u r t h e r reduced, p r e d i c t i o n s might the  gradually  planning  response  will  approach i s to  identify  and  accordingly.  The  premise  o f our  t o manage u n c e r t a i n t y Por  seems l i m i t e d  i n d i c a t i v e range of c l i m a t i c h i s t o r i c  s u b s t i t u t e d f o r i n d i c a t i o n s and  evolve  level  w o u l d seem more f e a s i b l e t o a s c e r t a i n .  as u n c e r t a i n t y be  yet  1975).  Currently our  that  1975),  a l t h o u g h some have made a t t e m p t s a t a g l o b a l - z o n a l (Willet,  i f not  this  r e a s o n the  variability requiring  and  planning  p u r p o s e f u l l y r a t h e r than to ignore i t .  u n c e r t a i n t i e s presented  change must be  a different  defined;  commitment  by c l i m a t i c  four  classes  for i t s resolutions  identified: Uncertainty  of C l i m a t i c System  Uncertainty  of C l i m a t i c  Uncertainty  of  Uncertainty  of Risk  Structure  Variance  Impacts Valuation  each are  35  Uncertainty gaps  o f C l i m a t i c System  i n the knowledge  atmospheric  system,  implications commitment  about  the basic  the causes  o f human  Structure.  activity  This  operation  of climatic  refers to of the  change  and t h e  on t h e a t m o s p h e r e .  f o r r e s o l u t i o n i s fundamental  The  basic  meteorological  research. Uncertainty the  of Variance.  duration,  from  through  width  narrows  provided  Uncertainty influence  while is  that  o f Impacts."  are direct  life  on l i f e  support  the nature,  support  15$ d r o p  reservoir's  draw  down p e r i o d  type  analysis  of uncertainty of the impacted  and p o l l e n l a y e r i n g . even  i n one  system  systems.  Some  shortages, time How  lags  location,  i snot  has a  pervasive  of these  under  generated)  layoffs).  this  c a n be r e d u c e d  There  and magnitude  much p o w e r w i l l  i n streamflow?  system.  as  tangent.  systems.  of a  such  o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c power  (power  a result  This  and g l a c i a l  new  reduced  'proxy', r e c o r d s  the climatic  (quantity  about  c a n be  Climatic variability  are indirect  uncertainty  means a n d t h e r a t e s a n d  of variability  an e n t i r e l y  o n human  others  impacts as  t h e bounds  onto  climatic  Uncertainty  and d e n s i t y  about  and l o c a t i o n o f d e v i a t i o n s  of h i s t o r i c a l  one assumes  developing  impacts  changes.  an a n a l y s i s  refers to uncertainty  timing  established  of such  tree-ring This  magnitude,  arbitrarily  sequences  This  How  long  streamflow by  be  of lost  i s a scenario?  sensitivity  36  Uncertainty  of Risk  uncertainty  that  to  Valuation.  exists  pay f o r increased  may  be a t r a d e  system  long  term  o f f between  failure.  and p o l i t i c a l  ments'  and a l t e r n a t i v e  Integration Por  i n the existing  operation  distribution, systems.  many f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d  demand  climatic  favourable  new  regimes.  initial  efforts  security  against  by  'climatic  Making  that  affect  energy generating  a n a l y s i s and  i n a decision  relevant  process.  evaluative  alternative  proposals,  which  will  to a  as  aim to mitigate  b e n e f i t s from  rigidity  planning  there  engineering  impact  and maximise  at climatic  Processes  f o r instance,  and p r e s e n t l y  d e c i s i o n options  state-  i t h a s t o be  and h y d r o e l e c t r i c  Institutional  impact  supply,  planning,  fostering  proposals.  effective  of water  provide  conditions  support  d e c i s i o n processes  predetermined  as generating  adverse  limit  should  about  term  there  life  i n Decision  f i n a n c i n g , environmental  planning  information well  on  forecasting are a l l integrated  Climatic  term  c a n be r e d u c e d  t o be  I n power g e n e r a t i o n  feasibility,  short  long  based  and development agricultural  society i s willing Por instance,  mitigative action  planning  to the  stability.  of Climatic Planning  climatic  integrated  debate  refers  the price  decreased  Uncertainty  public  are  regarding  p r o d u c t i v i t y and i n c r e a s e d  critical  the  This  more  probably  purely  37  evaluative  input,  anticipated climatic  that  but  process  Emerging Approaches climatic  identify,  explore  generate  'new'  decision  processes  of  failed  to  critical systems  very  and  ness  of  created  of planning urban  of  planning  under  and  review  this  developed  imperfect  i n diverse  environments.  and  as  well  to as  to  identified and  in  development  of  a  as  uncertainty. the  a  and  theory i n the  and  Several  concentrate and  on  four  of  the have  led  planning  decisions  many d e c i s i o n s a r e  emerged  More  interconnected-  interventionist  knowledge.  have  introduction  variable  complexity  great  academic  practice  some p l a n n i n g  the and  of  and  regional planning  u n c e r t a i n t y have will  theory  failures,  recognised  where  capable  operation  existence  components  conditions  be  systems.  the  awareness  the  consideration.  previously  the  o r i e n t a t i o n of  system  recognition  not  in  Uncertainty  must  recently planning  uncertainty being  full  uncertainty,  concerning  a n a l y s i s to  The  Under  process  manage  sensitive  analysis  process.  receive  Planning  planning  acknowledge  decision-making to  to  established i t i s  a l t e r n a t i v e s generated  will  alternatives,  climatically Until  i t becomes more  substantive  planning  The  as  made  approaches  i n the  last  have in to  decade  methodologies  business  administration  38  The theory faced  first  which discusses  capability  utilities  deals  with  of h i s acts  a general  (Raiffa,  very  Jessop,  made.  The s e c o n d  by t h e I n s t i t u t e o f A n i m a l 1976).  The t h i r d  process  "play  approach  staged,  w h i c h aims t o r e d u c e t h e  1971).  The f o u r t h m e t h o d o l o g y i s  Research,  i n Coventry England.  much a n o p e r a t i o n a l i s e d f o r m o f 'DOSRAP'  It  (Priend  &  1971). points  Pirstly,  about p l a n n i n g  planning  on u n c e r t a i n t y  on u n c e r t a i n t y  such as " I ' l l  cross  i t by e a r " r e f l e c t  (Mack, 1 9 7 1 ) .  Secondly,  that  bridge  should  i s not the  e x c l u s i v e domain o f p r o f e s s i o n a l d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , sayings  approach  impact  f o r d e l i b e r a t i v e , ongoing,  (Mack,  of Operational  Two g e n e r a l be  1968).  t o a s S t r a t e g i c C h o i c e and was d e v e l o p e d by t h e  Institute is  an  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e method r e f e r r e d t o as  administrative  of uncertainty  referred  decision-maker with  q u a n t i t a t i v e l y the consequences  (Yorque,  'DOSRAP', w h i c h i s s h o r t  cost  decision  uncertainty  managing t h e unknown i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l  R e s o u r c e E c o l o g y a t UBC  recursive,  rational  to evaluate  a s s e s s m e n t and was d e v e l o p e d  discusses  of s t a t i s t i c a l  methods o f d e a l i n g w i t h  by a s u p e r i n t e l l i g e n t  infinite and  a p p r o a c h i s an example  common  when I g e t t o i t " o r  the u n i v e r s a l i t y of the concept traditionally,  uncertainty i n  e n v i r o n m e n t a l management has b e e n r e s o l v e d  b y a t r i a l and  e r r o r approach under t h e paradigm of an i n f i n i t e l y f o r g i v i n g nature.  Under t h i s  p a r a d i g m t h e s y s t e m would a l w a y s  recover  and  provide  based.  useful information  on w h i c h f u r t h e r a c t i o n i s  The s c a l e and p e r v a s i v e n e s s  such that  o f some p r o j e c t s  t h e e n v i r o n m e n t c a n no l o n g e r  be p r o b e d i n t h i s  f a s h i o n , and i t has been s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e r e f o r e o p e r a t e s on t h e b a s i s In nuclear  i s now  society  of h y p o t h e t i c a l i t y (Haefele,  power development, f o r i n s t a n c e ,  1974)•  the safety  s y s t e m s a n d t h e i m p a c t s o f a r e a c t o r m e l t d o w n c a n n o t be realistically  t e s t e d and r e s i d u a l u n c e r t a i n t y  C l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y presents  remains.  the opposite  case where  e n v i r o n m e n t a l change h a s enormous i m p a c t s on t h e human support systems. disturbances  The m a g n i t u d e and d u r a t i o n  c a n be r o u g h l y  life  of past  assessed, but the future  r e n c e s o f s i m i l a r e v e n t s a r e as y e t u n p r e d i c t a b l e  recur-  and h e n c e  residual uncertainty w i l l persist.  A P r o b a b i l i t y Approach t o Uncertainty The  decision-making theory  is a statistical uncertainty  1968).  I t i s a positive  theory,  the behaviour of a super i n t e l l i g e n t  maker who i s f a c e d alternatives.  Raiffa  approach t o decision-making under  (Raiffa,  rationalising  s e t f o r t h by H a r o l d  with a choice  among  decision-  predelineated  The d e c i s i o n - m a k e r h a s t h e c a p a c i t y t o  d e t e r m i n e t h e u t i l i t y o f c o n s e q u e n c i e s and t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of events o c c u r r i n g . to r i s k ,  A l l uncertainty  the l a t t e r being  defined  i s therefore  translate  a s t h e s i t u a t i o n where a  set  of known consequences w i l l r e s u l t from a probable  occurring.  event  R a i f f a suggests the f o l l o w i n g model of the  decision-making  process:  1.  D e s c r i b e the anatomy of a problem i n a d e c i s i o n - f l o w diagram or t r e e .  2.  E v a l u a t e the consequences i n u t i l i t y numbers.  3.  A s s i g n p r o b a b i l i t i e s to branches of the. chance f o r k s .  4.  Determine optimal s t r a t e g y by averaging out and f o l d i n g back.  The d e c i s i o n - f l o w diagram shows p o i n t s of d e c i s i o n , p o i n t s of chance, and a c t i o n s and of a c t i o n open t o a The utiles,  outcomes f o r the v a r i o u s courses  decision-maker.  consequences are evaluated i n terms of d o l l a r s a h y p o t h e t i c a l u n i t e x p r e s s i n g the  or  decision-makers'  r e l a t i v e p r e f e r e n c e , a p p l i c a b l e i n areas where u n c e r t a i n t y d e f i e s a c c u r a t e monetary e v a l u a t i o n .  At every chance f o r k ,  l o c a t i o n s where the consequences of the a c t i o n s are determined In  decision-makers'  by chance, p r o b a b i l i t i e s are a s s i g n e d .  some of the more complicated d e c i s i o n t r e e s , R a i f f a  assumes the e x i s t e n c e of teams of experts to supply the decision-maker  w i t h the p r o b a b i l i t i e s .  The f i n a l  stage  i n v o l v e s the summation of p r o b a b i l i t i e s a l o n g the paths  of  the t r e e and then s e l e c t i n g the path that y i e l d s the h i g h e s t rewards f o r the  decision-maker.  The approach has  only a v e r y l i m i t e d a p p l i c a t i o n to the  problems of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y  and i t s consequences on the  41 Columbia is  too  River  limited  occurrence  of  alternative during  the  the  Understanding  even  certain  apply  of  however  where  analyst  more  to  are  more  process,  very  likely  rather  process.  useful  determine  hydroelectric  to  than  to  being  parts  of the  of  may  a decision-  the  system  consequences  subsystem  the  evolve  Statistical  i n those  knowledge  system  probability  action  complete  The  climatic  more i m p o r t a n t l y ,  accurately  probabilities.  judgemental  evaluative be  the  and  of  the  of  events,  decision-making  may  process  to  courses  prerequisite making  flow.  enables  and be  such  an  area.  Uncertainty  and  Environmental  Uncertainty in  environmental  central  thesis  stability. absorb  has  i s that  external  equilibrium.  can  the  and  policy  the  a  this  system  stability  is  a measure  of  when a  to the  robustness  of  stability  are  under  policy  boundaries return  to  i n research  1976).  multiple  system's  'flip' twin  prominence  (Yorque,  have  relatively  system  Erom  assessment systems  However,  boundary  another.  gained  d i s t u r b a n c e s and  stability force  recently  impact  Within  Impact  The  regions the  of  system  can  i t s previous  state  i s close  to  a  small external perturbation from  one  concepts  developed.  equilibrium  of  system  The  effectiveness  under  resilience  former  various policies,  to  while  is a the  measure latter ~  various states  of  42 the  system. I n e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t a n a l y s i s , t h e team  the  identifies  f o l l o w i n g sources of u n c e r t a i n t y : "1. 2.  E x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on s y s t e m s u n d e r consideration i s i n s u f f i c i e n t l y researched. Certain aspects are unpredictable principle, i . e .  in  e n v i r o n m e n t a l change beyond t h e observed s t a t e s of system l e v e l s of d e t a i l that prediction  defy  system w i t h a l a r g e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n c a n n o t be p r e d i c t e d a c c u r a t e l y (e.g. meteorological systems) 3.  Analysis i s often environmentally biased, completely ignoring s o c i e t a l i n t e r a c t i o n with the b i o l o g i c a l system.  4-  Environmental analysts are often required to make v a l u e j u d g e m e n t s , w h i c h a r e more t h a n l i k e l y t o be m o d i f i e d b y c h a n g i n g s o c i a l p e r c e p t i o n over a p r o j e c t t i m e o f 50 y e a r s o r more. "  T h r e e means o f f a c i n g u n c e r t a i n t y a r e s u g g e s t e d : 1.  L o o k i n g Outward  2.  Q u a l i t a t i v e D e s c r i p t i o n of System  3.  A d a p t i v e Management  L o o k i n g o u t w a r d c a n be a c h i e v e d b y i n s t i t u t i n g m u l t i disciplinary the  teams t h a t  i t e r a t i v e l y question  r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e v a r i o u s  significant The  processes w i t h i n  each other  subsystems, or the  these.  q u a l i t a t i v e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e system aims  about  43  specifically cause  at  systems  Traditional aspects method  of  the  to  description  evolve  ecology  from  has  of  one  focused  information  conditions  e q u i l i b r i u m to more  a l l v a r i a b l e s i n the  this  trigger  on  another.  the q u a n t i t a t i v e  system,  i s compressed  which  but  into  i n the a  much  qualitative simpler  model. The  adaptive  equivalent Lindblom package of  of  the  management  the  is also  strategic  environmental about  system.  i s advocated  perturbed adaptive only;  to  push  them  management  by  means  incremental boundaries approach single  shot  systems  approach  bounds  suggested  conceivable spatially  can  known,  only  to  the  dangerous  has a  a  The  temporal  system,  the  ' dimension  or  similar  experiments.  These  safely  i f the  adaptive as  in  deliberately  segregated  otherwise  phases  changes  stability.  test  be'taken  as  of  initial  generating  small  be  by  commitment  The to  from  ecological  the  stability  management traditional  experiment.  ideas  ment  research  they  provide has  resulting that  i n the  directed  the  described  approach.  are  beyond  is potentially  Many  itself  of  steps are  choice  effects  i t i s however  system,  reflected  management  information It  is really  i n c r e m e n t a l i s t approach  (1959) and of  approach  generated  are  i n the  applicable in climatic  insights  i n system  multiple regions  interglacial,  environmental  summer-winter,  of  planning,  behaviour. stability,  low  impact  The  -  far  climate  i c e age  variability  as  assess-  -  high  as  variability,  but  systems  display  system,  for  standard  changes  instance,  a  or  new  system  resilience.  How  the  are  How  well  bounds system  useful  under in  a  methods  management  climatic  planning  because,  Secondly, designed  subject a and  well  controlled of  a  information  about without  form  be  viewed  i t absorb  facing  be  climatic  the  aim  and  under  of  extend  looking  uncertainties.  base  system  capable  experimentation.  to  scenarios?  climatic  data  respect  for  transferrable  developed  performance  utilities,  with  tested  experimentation  model  of  climatic  climatic  hydroelectric  simulation system  does  firstly,  in significant  other  p o l i c i e s that  purposeful  relatively  development  scenarios  to  also  i s not  Streamflow  the  to  one  equilibrium.  various  in  adaptive  (yet)  within  q u a l i t a t i v e manner  However,  not  in  sales  p o l i c i e s can  e f f e c t i v e are  hydroelectric  result  either  can  agricultural  The  operate  will  export  system  Mitigative  performance  outward  patterns,  and  streamflows.  boundary  substantial  hydroelectric  Describing  to  production-consumption  variability?  the  this  The  robustness.  designed  mean a n n u a l  consumption  conservation  hydroelectric  characteristics.  is  of  exceeding  in  setting  impacted  similar  deviation  sequences  to  the  to system  by  is  man.  o*f a  man  permits  the  generating  various  climatic  45 DOSRAP R u t h Mack's s t r a t e g y f o r d e a l i n g w i t h u n c e r t a i n t y i s c a l l e d DOSRAP, s h o r t f o r d e l i b e r a t i v e , r e c u r s i v e , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e process ongoing of  concern f o r t h e time  of the decision-making process.  the presence  w i t h i n which  of purpose,  staged,  (Mack, 1 9 7 1 ) .  u n c e r t a i n t y and r e c u r s i v e i s i n d i c a t i v e  nature to  and staged r e f l e c t  ongoing,  The w o r d s dimension  of the c y c l i c a l  Deliberative  a v a l u e framework o f p r e f e r e n c e s  many p r o b l e m s , , d e f i n i t i o n s a n d s o l u t i o n s c a n  e v o l v e as a r e s u l t  o f i n t e r a c t i o n among p a r t i e s .  This  methodology c a n employ a r i c h v a r i e t y o f d e c i s i o n techniques The of  a t various stages  o b j e c t i v e of t h i s approach  purposive, deliberative  conduct.  i n three sources.  analysis  of the process. i s to minimize  u n c e r t a i n t y i n terms o f the n e t expected  i s found  refers  the cost  u t i l i t y of  The c o s t o f u n c e r t a i n t y  The f i r s t  source  r e l a t i v e t o obtaining r e s u l t s f o r sure.  i s the discount  An example o f t h i s  c o s t m i g h t be t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e a i a s t a t i o n - t o - s t a t i o n c a l l and a p e r s o n - t o - p e r s o n (probability  call.  To be a b s o l u t e l y s u r e  1.0) one p l a c e s a p e r s o n - t o - p e r s o n  c a l l ' a t say  $ 2 . 0 0 , w h i l e a s t a t i o n - t o - s t a t i o n c o s t s o n l y $1.50 ( p r o b a b i l i t y 0.75). is  thus worth  The c h a n c e o f h a v i n g t h e c o n v e r s a t i o n  three quarters of having i t f o r sure.  I f the  chances o f t h e person b e i n g out a r e g r e a t e r than t h r e e out of  f o u r , one o p t s f o r t h e p e r s o n - t o - p e r s o n  is part of the cost of uncertainty.  call.  The s e c o n d  The d i s c o u n t source  of the  46 cost  of uncertainty  behaviour  which  i s i n the d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n the d e c i s i o n  results  when f a c e d  with  exaggerate  the external  then  ignored  often  These  three  of  bias  DOSRAP  explanation  the  disks  cost  i n  decision-making tend  Firstly,  t h e bounds  frameworks.  o f agreement  increases  size  i n d i c a t e s the range  gradually The that  'DOSRAP'  should  planning very  high  study for  climatic  million  Firstly,  report  variability  points  with  reflects  their  b e h a v i o u r ) and of the  (the darker/the•more continues.  The  of possibilities  widening  under  the focus i s  h a s some v a l u a b l e  the cost  will  can cost  i s pervasive,  components variability  of uncertainty  For instance,  demonstrate  i n power  an ongoing  i n the c l i m a t i c  planning.  variability  p e r annum  therefore  approach  i n climatic  i n this  few  down.  be i n c o r p o r a t e d  model.  A  The s h a d i n g  as t h e p r o c e s s  A f t e r an i n i t i a l  narrowed  to a  the approach  of past  agreement) which  investigation.  4-.  of decision-makers  customs)  the level  of the disk  are  situations.  to lead  i s shown i n F i g u r e  (checking  reflects  and t h e s e  decision-making.  process  (values,  tends to  of a development  of uncertainty  interaction  organizational  of uncertainty  Thirdly, uncertainty  are warranted.  continuous  societal  suppression  i n private  sources  conservative The  i t .  from  that  shortfalls. unpredictable  and i n t e r a c t i v e  t h e case  failure  B. C . H y d r o  process  to plan  up t o  Secondly, and  c a n be  $84  climatic  continuous, involving the  Problem recognition Time  Specification of alternatives  Decision proper  Effectuation  Correction  • Diagram 11-1  Model for DOSRAP.  Figure  4:  DOSRAP  Prom:  Planning 1971.  under  Uncertainty,  managers  of different  essential. the  This  bounds  reduced  reviewed  i n a staged  variability Canadian  cation  with  Council's In  i s only  who  with  the issue  of concern  namely  are attempting  with  many ways  t h e 'DOSRAP' m o d e l  the  Strategic  Choice  methodology.  The  Strategic  Choice  Approach  This  approach  common d e n o m i n a t o r public, In study the  private,  o r group  Choice  i n Coventry,  decision  f o r climatic  lines  of  and  civil  o f communi-  the Science  of choice, the be i t o f a  nature.  operational research  of Operational Research  Strategic  climate  i s operationalisedi n  on t h e p o i n t  of a five-year  of decision-making  to a  program.  i n a l l decision-making,  individual  the course  Institute  called  focuses  system i s  component  through  Change'  would  Thirdly, the  or so academics  to establish  Climatic  better  t o be  of planning  relevant decision-makers  'Living  need  attaches  to a small  a dozen  and a d j u s t  t o make  his societal  society  seems  Uncertainty  and p o l i c i e s  -the v a l u e  At present  society,  servants,  decisions.  manner  systems  aim to i d e n t i f y  uncertainty i n order  interaction  to assess  system.  sensitive  information i s generated.  'decision-maker's  proof  would  and developmental  a s new  important  process  of climatic  operational be  climatically  England, developed  methodology.  a team t h e so  from  49 Firstly, focus  of a  thirdly,  problem,  i t must  The  remarkably  lucid  The  connected of  A  decision  options  areas  among  areas.  AIDA  w i t h i n which The  are i d e n t i f i e d i n a solution  mutually  list  tree.  The  In  the e v a l u a t i o n , the a n a l y s i s  (how  associated  with  the  of  inter-  identification  exclusive choices  latter  solutions  i s a recognition process.  of u n c e r t a i n t y surfaces o f the range  the cause  or  impossible  of f e a s i b l e  of the decision-making  a determination  much) a n d  process  phases i s  the analysis  a  the s e q u e n t i a l nature  scale  and  i n Alan Hickling's  and methods  begins  and  of  the  of the planning  i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s and  formulated  with  complexity  the various  as AIDA,  is  prominently  changing  ( s e e F i g . 5).  of techniques  are feasible.  combinations  model  i s illustrated  i s known  decision  manage  the  of managing u n c e r t a i n t y  loops  diagram  process  of i d e n t i f y i n g  i t must  cyclical  process  collection  this  capable  capable  m u l t i p l e feedback  suggested.  with  be  secondly,  be  1976).  (Hickling, with  i t must  (what  of the e f f e c t s  and  most who),  (what  worth). Friend requiring "1.  2.  (1971) d i s t i n g u i s h e s t h r e e c l a s s e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y  different  commitments  for their  resolution:  U n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e o p e r a t i n g e n v i r o n m e n t (UE) (e.g. the p h y s i c a l , socio-economic environment of a l o c a l a u t h o r i t y ) . U n c e r t a i n t y i n r e l a t e d a r e a s o f c h o i c e (UR.) (e.g. a c t i o n s contemplated or proceeded with by o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s ) .  50  The Strategic Choice Approach process; concepts; methods;  f<ck,iu> Decision, ATZAS  Whfi&r shall*  we do?  '  \  \ (lwMal tbcus)  i , , . . . . .  # Analysis ft*&rtai*ty  frAyieti:  \  x.  feyise  Units)  fyfonBars ' (movers? Feasible Solution*, ^ Criteria.) Criteria/ Valuatun,l> Evaluate*,  (tawU cf~K?VLtw) (Utetisu/C, Area, sa Sa2(4#H£iuj)  figure  5:  From:  Aids to S t r a t e g i c  Strategic  Choice Approach. Choice, 1 9 7 6 .  51 3 .  U n c e r t a i n t y to a p p r o p r i a t e v a l u e judgements (UV) (e.g. the values that decision-makers a t t a c h t o t h e e f f e c t s o f d e c i s i o n s on t h e i r constituents)."  Solutions  are  resolution control, of  of u n c e r t a i n t y i n f i e l d s  or  actions  later  tested f o r robustness,  f o r adaptiveness, i n the  point  light  i n time.  commitment  package  action  and  set  actions tions set  that  into  and  a  be  taken  uncertainty.  now The  choice  fields  In  and  planning  h i e r a r c h y of  number  of  generators.  types  of  choices  of magnitude  the  state  under  concerned  these set  plans  a  set  emerging  sets  at  a  a  of  an  contains  may  include  has  a  explora-  delayed  conditional  the  height  and  with  of  of  a  choice  i t assumes  greater the  dam,  on  action  certain  i s at  of  an  least  than  to  equality  a  system  agency.  the  area  to  build  of  the  is  decisions reservoir  methodology  partially  time  on  development  Planning  f o r the  decisions affecting  this  to  among  subordinate size  by  developed  i n one  decision  the  referred  s t r u c t u r e of  control  variability  is primarily  d e c i s i o n s , the  and  climatic  adjust  for hydroelectric  with  totally  and  effects  dealing  the  action  approach  orders  affect  agencies'  i s made u p  The  the  arising.  areas.  The  to  trends  This  policy  several  the  the  to  information generated  of contingency  in related  is a  the  set.  s y s t e m i c a l l y the  decision there  policy  outside  particular  With  sensitivity  ability  i s formulated.  strategic  identify choices  can  series  situations The  a  of  the  the  or  for  being, not  s t r u c t u r e and  state  52  of  the climatic  climatic could be  input  built?"  come  a t two l e v e l s . many  case  can  also  climatic  environment).  be v i e w e d  as  "How  On  the l a t t e r  situation  formulation  relevant  of the concepts f o r our purposes.  uncertainty, systems,  applicable.  adaptivity  hydroelectric scenarios,  evaluative  system's  and t h e impacts  the  generating  variability? deals  with  approach are  basics,  like  of various  managing  parts  of the planning  of  process  are  of s o l u t i o n robustness  and  aids  performance  be a n  strategy.  i n this  The v e r y  should  the problem  specifically  discussed  The concepts  are useful  hand,  climatic  i n a planning  nature  would  and o p e r a t e  to greater  plants  (Uncertainty i n  the other  the interconhectedness  and t h e i t e r a t i v e  obviously  a s a n UE  model the  problem  variability  the analyst  of options  The  and thermal  to plan  t o be more r e s p o n s i v e  Many  dams  f a c t o r and i s c l a s s e d  operating  system  I n the Strategic Choice  a s "How  In this  the  the  could  be d e f i n e d  evaluative  In  system.  when  under  of different  assessing the  different responses  climatic to  climatic  variability. The been  defined  structure has  uncertainty  been  valuation The climatic  i n the operating  f o r our purposes  and s t a t e adopted  o f system.  particularly  i n the societal idea  (UE)' h a s  so as t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e Uncertainty to identify  of value  between (UV)  and explore  risk  system.  o f a commitment  variability  environment  presents  package  i s appealing f o r  an ongoing  need  to  explore  53 •uncertainty, safeguard The  man-made  simultaneously systems  planning  components  model  that  for  improving  the understanding  the  Strategic  Choice  choices  faced  support  systems.  Towards  a Planning  determinacy special  this  be a b l e  making  generating  of the c l i m a t i c  new  o n some o f The  of data  presents  o f human  of a planning variable.  a  on t h e  sensitive  life  pervasiveness,  control, process  This  alternatives  that  that  that  planning  of relevant agencies,  on t h e above  methodologies,  while  components  might  calls  wishes  process  order  f o r some to  should  decision-  y e t be c a p a b l e otherwise  be  overlooked. Drawing  means  system,  invaluable  of c l i m a t i c a l l y  t o be i n t e g r a t e d i n h i g h e r  processes  based  Model  variability  features  a  approach has suggested  h a s some  that  failure.  reviewed.  and a n a l y s i s  by t h e managers  and a l a c k  incorporate also  approach  the collection  Climatic  i s i n part  assessment  actions  to formulate  of the four approaches impact  focus  critical  attempts  environmental  which  implementing  against  following section  theoretical the  while  analysis  the planning  A.  Problem  B.  System  model  Recognition Identification  of current has seven  planning  phases:  of  5  C.  Identification  of  D.  Exploration  of  Uncertainty  E.  Formulation  of Alternatives  F.  Evaluation  G.  Development  The  sequence  of steps  but  i n our model  and  explored  alternatives. modelled  o f a Commitment  resembles  The c o n t e n t  Impact,  Package  the Strategic Choice  uncertainties are  to the formulation  on a c o m b i n a t i o n  Environmental  Uncertainty  of Alternatives  the climatic  prior  of ideas  DOSRAP,  identified  and e v a l u a t i o n  of the individual derived  model,  of  steps i s  from the  and S t r a t e g i c  Choice  approaches.  • A.  Problem  between v a r i o u s watchers' perceive defined  and t h e energy  production  variability.  and  societal  that  igation B.  I n our case  phase  such  development  interaction  as t h e "'weather  interests,  this  might  of existing  be  begin  i s responsible  then  needs  to  roughly  and f u t u r e  to previously unanticipated  The p r o b l e m  i s committed  In this  components  as the s e n s i t i v i t y  electric  agency  Recognition.  a problem.  hydro-  climatic  t o be t r a n s f e r r e d t o a n  f o r hydroelectric  to a l l o c a t e resources  development  to further  invest-  of the problem. Systems  Identification.  process  among members  experts  i s likely  systems  and system  4  of a  small  t o be t h e m o s t  An  interactive,  iterative  multidisciplinary effective  relationships that  way  affect  of  the  group  of  identifying formulation  and  implementation  variability" case a  study  local  and  five  systems  to increased planning.  are identified:  hydrometeorological,  C.  response  i n hydroelectric generation  a societal  system  o f a human  In the  a global  a h y d r o e l e c t r i c , an  climatic  climatic, institutional  system.  Identification two s o u r c e s  of Uncertainty.  Within  o f u n c e r t a i n t y have  already  the climatic been  identified:  As  Uncertainty structure  of climatic  -  Uncertainty  of variance  f a ras the impacted  unlikely of  -  t o be u n c e r t a i n t y  t h e m a r e man-made.  about  the variance  regime  move  production  into  unrepresentative variable and  regime  magnitude  uncertainties  of system  o f many  will  states  record,  might  should  have  the climatic  been  the return  changes  As  based  projected on a n  t o a more  levels. have  most  be u n c e r t a i n t i e s  realms.  production  output  there i s  s t r u c t u r e because  there  systems  affect  of these  The  been  nature  c l a s s e d as  of impact.  at a later  uncertainty  of system  However,  climatic  Uncertainties explored  s y s t e m s -are c o n c e r n e d  p r e v i o u s l y unobserved  outputs  system  i s best  of r i s k stage  v a l u a t i o n are best of the process.  carried  out through  identified  Identification  and of  a literature.-.-revi-ew-.  56 D. phase  Exploration  i s to  identify  uncertainty. concerned, of  As  the  sequence,  can  be  Stochastic  on  of  through modelling inputs  to  the  indicative  indication  by of  of  of  the  extending  also  be  system behaviour.  likelihood  of  guide  divergence to  the  tree-rings Upon  or  pollen.  completion of  be  impacts  assessed  Climatically variable analyst  with  Application  employed  historic  to  an of  acquire  an  variability  .reic.urr.ing;^ -  E. of  Formulation  actions  are  of A l t e r n a t i v e A c t i o n s .  Five  considered:  1.  Operational  plans  2.  Contingency  plans  3.  Design  4.  Exploratory  criteria  and  actions  Climatic Climatic  policy  adjustments  into:  system  structure  variance  and  meteorological  uncertainty  the  be  of  is  or  recorded  system.  also  this  bounds  system) can  provide  may  best  used.  the  other  impacted  techniques  of  l o c a t i o n , combination  i c e cores;  ( o r any  the  i s the  analysis  model should  range  probability  past  might  this  hydroelectric  the  convergence  of v a r i a n c e ,  analysis  iteration  the  identify  explored  simulation  object  c l i m a t i c system s t r u c t u r e  the  uncertainty  The  p o s s i b l y narrow  should  Assuming  d a t a t h r o u g h an  of an  and  f a r as  analysis  theories.  future  of U n c e r t a i n t y .  classes  57  Impacts 5. The  types  Risk  actions  hydroelectric  systems  valuation  Monitoring  of  on  plans  and  possible  alternatives will  now  be  discussed. Operational of  a  plans  This  r e s e r v o i r s or plans  system,  will  but  anticipated Design  might  affect only  trends  criteria  standards  might  of  climatic  variability  more of  creating a  actions  intensive  than  uncertainty.  changing i n the  are  at  the  Research  into  These  carried  out  but  information  the  water  of  carried  levels  the  hydroelectric  c o n d i t i o n a l on a  future  to  reserve  so  certain  date.  affect  yet  out  equipment.  the  be  design  installed.  longer that  draw  down  greater  studies  joint  addressing  i n v e s t i g a t i o n s are  first  structure  already  be  be. a b s o r b e d .  provincial,  the  operation  can  reservoirs with  attempts  pervasiveness  for  i n the  generating  adjustments  further  the  of  operations  thermal  can  The  reason  agencies  the  that  implemented  policy  uncertainty.  sufficient  system  a  the  designing  or  of  actions  h y d r o e l e c t r i c equipment  periods,  areas  be  of  m a t e r i a l i s i n g at  and  involve  Exploratory  be  adjustments  Contingency  It  consist  hydroelectric generating  immediately. in  would  of  to the  considerably  narrow  the  climate  is  bounds a  cooperation  between  national  international level.  of  the  or  climatic through  does  to  appear  be  a number  system  internationally not  specified  the  of  is  G-ARP p r o j e c t ,  effectively  58  absorbed life  by  those  support  would  also  level  may  climatic  systems  be  tree-ring  areas  prove  variance.  records  agency  latter  life  might  aspects  of the  Further  be  explorations  i n the s o c i e t a l  into  provide  an  Monitoring  plans  order  require  monitored  with  proceeds  be  should into  with  and  however  a program  would  attempt  precipitation systems  this  through  be  of to  -extend  and r u n o f f i n  are located.  within life  the sphere support  modelling  of  of  system.  critical  should  important  be  input  attempted i n the  i n the climatic  a t the g l o b a l and p r o v i n c i a l of a n t i c i p a t e d  of contingency such  as t o the extent  be  also  risk  actions.  agencies  evolved. also  u n c e r t a i n t i e s abour  indicators  the onset  federal  Options  should  actions  both  the implementation  feasible. ment  - Critical  to detect  programs  that  system  of the alternative  in  level  should  f o r the p a r t i c u l a r  evaluation  be  level  system.  information w i l l  should  of research  is primarily  improved  maintaining  The n a t i o n a l  kind  efforts  support  of impact  and  f o r investigations into  of temperature,  responsible  here  as  The  critical  Options  valuation  convenient  ice-core analyses  Uncertainty the  1976).  f o r this  at the p r o v i n c i a l  and  where  f o r developing  (Schneider,  recommended  also  concentrated  written  responsible  as AES  the implementation  plans. would  and  to monitoring phase.  as  level  that Joint  seem  of the agency's  Climatic research subject  trends  system  may action  most  involve-  exploratory the  process  59  P.  Evaluation  conventional most  of  the  operation policy i.e.  cost  the  operational  plans,  Having we  planning  the  climatic food, It can  then  Planning  of  should  predictive  the  model, are  some  and  of  scenarios.  This a  phase  set  of  criteria  monitoring  a  plan,  possible  the  and  planning  current  limitations  supply  prior  limitations i s an  to  attempts  our  might  actions to  Variability  develop  which  i f i t ever  capacity  terms  process  within  various  take  design  and  robustness,  climatic  a  for Climatic  planning  water  for  to  Alternative  criteria  s e l e c t i o n of  and  applied  variability.  uncertainty  and  be  proceed.  discuss  illustrates  There  actions  fairly  package.  plans,  will  now  tested  the  i n general  variability  predictive  with  can  design  commitment  A  actions.  various  contingency  can  and be  outlined  to  energy  and  planning  suggested  bounds  a  for climatic  Limitations The  of  also under  exploratory  implementation  of  should  Development  adjustments,  exploratory plans  applicability  'finalises'  process,  and  contingency  adjustments  G-.  alternative actions.  effectiveness analysis  monitoring  and  their  of  an  that  science  identify  indicative  life be  to  support  expected a  range  systems,-  to  perform.  responsible  developing  of  the  agency  'perfect'  will. such  example  a of  process, the  the  absence  incomplete  of  knowledge  60  in  the c l i m a t e - l o g i c a l f i e l d , but  i n p l a n n i n g m e t h o d o l o g y and required At  to i n i t i a t e the present  and  process.  has  and  the d i f f e r e n t  the c l i m a t i c planner.  a very  ments.  s t r a t e g y of a l l o c a t i n g resources  i n the s h o r t term.  r e s e a r c h may  be  as i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e i n the s h o r t term.  climatic  Political  c o m m u n i t y may  indicative  on t h e  then  " c l i m a t i c horizon".. of the  e a s i l y lead to continued implementation above.  the  only  be  on  politically,  s y s t e m c a n be  "cracked"  i n the  l e a d to a c e s s a t i o n of  funding.  o t h e r h a n d m i g h t more q u i c k l y p o t e n t i a l d i s a s t e r s t h a t loom  S o c i e t a l concern  l i f e ' support funding  of a c l i m a t i c  politically  overemphasis  disappointment  o f some d r a m a t i c  possible failure  An  counter-productive  I m p a c t o r i e n t e d r e s e a r c h on t h e be  to  It  s u c c e s s f u l i n o b t a i n i n g f u r t h e r l o n g term commit-  consequential  scientific  The  l o n g term p e r s p e c t i v e .  C l i m a t i c r e s e a r c h i s u n l i k e l y t o be  predictive  time  horizon, while  development of a p r e d i c t i v e c l i m a t i c model can partially  to  m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y a c t i o n needed  e s s e n t i a l l y a s h o r t term time  the' c l i m a t i c p l a n n e r seems t h a t t h e  commitment  commitment i s t h e k e y  t h i s commitment i s i m p e d e d b y  has  limitations  a c l i m a t i c planning process. -  s c a l e s of the p o l i t i c i a n politician  such a  time p o l i t i c a l  successfully initiate  Obtaining  the p o l i t i c a l  maintain  e n c o u r a g e t h e r e s e a r c h and to  there are a l s o  system  about may  o f r e s e a r c h and  planning process  the  then  more  the  as o u t l i n e d  In  this  instance, rather  the  is  good  a  was  than  edly  respect a  a  Besides  climatic public  of  prediction  that  i t would  and  f o r the  political  and  will  year  tended  to  involved  i n the  massive  that  are  associated with  last  30  years. of  enlisting climatic  have  the  that  as  too  presents  i s only become  i t , rather the  and  life of  be  and  several  overcome  before  i  variable in i  of  and  the  meteorological  agriculturists support  systems  population  exposed  initially  to  over  a real  in  or  the  under  barrier  agriculturists  very aware  i t s limitations, recently that of  the  professions than  in in  the  methodology  planning  remarked  theory  are  many  i t .  The  broadening  monitoring,  climatic  was  such  planning.  improves,  and  variable uncertainty.  e v a l u a t i v e measures to  as  there  manage  i n t r o d u c t i o n of  importance the  doubling  engineers  are  i n t r o d u c t i o n of  engineers  being  decade.  recording  of  process  process.  planning  uncertainty major  of  of  practise  planning,  fear  skills  planning  ignore  the  the  It  of  The  most  Undoubt-  planning  another The  i n our  happen.  there to  program, f o r  consequences  a  next  just  development  will  earlier.  to  become  delude  facilities  Planning  Within  i n the  of  commitment,  average  has  design  start  private, decision-making. 30  the  professional hurdles  variability  statistical data  fear  of v a r i a b i l i t y  the  institutional  to  f l u immunisation  a  stimulant  dose  swine  response  firm  best  the  the  the as  that  prefer base  concept  robustness It  is  profession  of are  expected will  of  62 g r a d u a l l y become more r e c e p t i v e t o t h e c o n c e p t s . C l i m a t o l o g y and c l i m a t o l o g i s t s p r o v i d e l i m i t a t i o n s t o the c l i m a t i c p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s .  C l i m a t o l o g i s t s have, by t h e i r  own c o n f e s s i o n , n o t been v e r y e f f e c t i v e i n d e v e l o p i n g a human response  t o c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i n s p i t e o f the f a c t t h a t  they a r e m o s t l y employed by t h e f e d e r a l government, w h i c h i s an i m p o r t a n t p o i n t of l e v e r a g e i n the system (Hare, O v e r l y concerned  1975).  w i t h e s t a b l i s h i n g s c i e n t i f i c t r u t h beyond  r e a s o n a b l e doubt, l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n has been passed p o l i t i c i a n s and p o l i c y m a k e r s , who have c o n s e q u e n t l y  onto based  d e c i s i o n s on i g n o r a n c e r a t h e r than u n c e r t a i n t y . The  science of c l i m a t o l o g y i s undergoing  an immense  t r a n s i t i o n w i t h the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f the d i g i t a l computer w h i c h has enabled massive data p r o c e s s i n g and the s a t e l l i t e w h i c h has g i v e n us one eye on t h e globe and one on the sun. S c i e n c e has o n l y begun t o e x p l o r e the p o t e n t i a l of these two t o o l s .  A l t h o u g h knowledge i s p r e s e n t l y l i m i t e d and  d i v e r s e , t h e r a p i d expansion  of knowledge i s l i k e l y t o  c o n t i n u e and some s c i e n t i s t s expect t h e development o f n u m e r i c a l models t o l e a d t o p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f l o n g term v a r i a t i o n s , but t h a t the s m a l l e r y e t e c o n o m i c a l l y  significant  f l u c t u a t i o n s might d e f y p r e d i c t i o n (Mason, 1976). q u e s t i o n o f the s o l a r v a r i a b i l i t y and t h e phenomena  The suggested  by W i l l e t i s another c u r r e n t l i m i t a t i o n t o our u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t c o u l d be e x p l o r e d w i t h t h e s a t e l l i t e s .  A t the more  l o c a l s c a l e t r e e - r i n g and g l a c i a l r e s e a r c h has n o t been  63 specifically in  critical  of  system  geared areas.  upon  establishing historic  Climatology  structure  constraints  to  and  the  both  system  variability  in fields  variance  climatic planning  poses  of  uncertainty  current  process.  Summary This process  based  managing  the  categorised  responding  To  be  was  might  existing operation  to  the  Current variability  classes  identifying,  by  the  and,  under  how  a  planning  exploring  and  c l i m a t i c system  through  an  uncertainty,  r e s o l u t i o n of  data  this and  planning new  each  support  a  lack  the  of  process  decision that  have  analysis a  class  of  planning of  should  options  affect  the  to  generate feed  into  development'  and  systems.  l i m i t a t i o n s to  within  illustrate  developed.  life  are  to  developed.  presented  d e c i s i o n processes of  of  be  approaches  effective  evaluative  barriers  premise  in four  planning  uncertainty  both  on  attempted  uncertainties  emerging model  has  uncertainty  The been  chapter  a  effective  planning  political  commitment  professions.  for climatic and  various  Chapter  PLANNING- POR THE  This planning  chapter model  resources ment  of  CASE  the  capacity  now This  case  to  to  to  and  climatic  a  a  of  BASIN  the  Basin.  climatic  This  planning  of  of  of  year  of  the  the h y d r o e l e c t r i c  River  a  set  develop-  generation  streamflow  climatic  warm and  some  ;  a p p l i c a t i o n of  basis  forty  climate,  climatic  and  period  explores  improve  the  the  unusually  i n the  different  strategy  be  on  VARIABILITY  U P P E R COLUMBIA  Columbia  resources  data  study  variability for  Upper  p r i m a r i l y to  judged  THE  development  proceeded  meteorological relate  the  water  has  CLIMATIC  describes  to  i n the  OP  Four  record  history,  stable  i n d i c a t o r s of  (see  that  which  Chapter  longer  is Two).  term  tests  the  h y d r o e l e c t r i c system  scenarios,  and  suggests  the  variability.  h y d r o e l e c t r i c system's  a  planning  resilience  65  D e s c r i p t i o n of Study The  Area  study area i s the Upper Columbia R i v e r B a s i n  which  c o n s t i t u t e s the e n t i r e d r a i n a g e a r e a of the Columbia R i v e r above R e v e l s t o k e . square  m i l e s and  river's  source  approximately  The  d r a i n a g e a r e a o f t h e b a s i n i s 10,300  i t s l o c a t i o n i s shown on f i g u r e  i s i n C o l u m b i a L a k e and  from there  t u r n and  travels  then flows i n a s o u t h e a s t e r l y  d i r e c t i o n f o r 100 m i l e s t o R e v e l s t o k e . Revelstoke w i l l boundaries  ranges,  The  200 m i l e s i n a n o r t h w e s t e r l y d i r e c t i o n where  i t makes an a b r u p t  The  6.  c r e a t e two  dams a t M i c a  a d d i t i o n a l l a k e s i n the  of the watershed  t h e Monashee and  The  system.  a r e f o r m e d by f i v e  mountain  Cariboo mountains form the  western  b o u n d a r y , t h e R o c k y M o u n t a i n s c h a i n i n t h e e a s t and P u r c e l l and  and  the  S e l k i r k mountains separate the n o r t h e r l y f l o w i n g  s e c t i o n of the Columbia R i v e r from the s e c t i o n f l o w i n g south f r o m M i c a Dam. excess  The  mountains c o n t a i n s e v e r a l peaks i n  o f 10,000 f e e t and  approximately  10$  of the  a r e a i s c o v e r e d w i t h p e r m a n e n t snow f i e l d s and The generated  glaciers.  r u n o f f from the Columbia B a s i n i s p r i m a r i l y by snow a c c u m u l a t e d  The  June-July r u n o f f accounts  The  M i c a Dam  b a s i n and  drainage  has  drainage  o v e r t h e w i n t e r and f o r 50$  comprises  a mean a n n u a l  spring.  of the annual  a p p r o x i m a t e l y 80$  of  the  d i s c h a r g e f o r t h e M i c a Dam  o f 20,510 c f s compared t o 28,830 c f s a t R e v e l s t o k e . a r e a b e t w e e n R e v e l s t o k e and M i c a , a l t h o u g h o n l y 20$ t o t a l area generates  total.  site The  of  a b o u t h a l f as much r u n o f f , as t h e  the area  66  Figure  6:  L o c a t i o n Map f o r U p p e r Columbia R i v e r B a s i n  From:  Revelstoke  (1880) P r o j e c t ,  1975.  67 upstream The  of the Mica basin  the  coast  the  eastward  ranges  moving border  meteorological regime  i s located  mountains  that  300  some  and i t smajor maritime  (75  across the basin  i s fairly  inland  from  determinants are  and the  mountain  of the instrumental that  the  temperature  but the pattern uniform  ( B . C.  of  Hydro,  i  Relevance  of the Study study  implications potential response  show;  on e l e v a t i o n  1975a).  The  climatic  Analyses  years)  dependent  t o 400 m i l e s  a i r masses  the basin.  record  i s highly  temperature  Dam.  Area  a r e a was  of climatic  o f two m a j o r to these  electricity activities  selected change  agriculture  and water  life  temperature  mode,  but not the substance  a planning  to climatic  support  supply insofar  about  generation  induced v a r i a t i o n s i n  I t i s relevant  i n other c r i t i c a l  the  on t h e e l e c t r i c i t y  dams a n d t o o u t l i n e  climatically  supply.  t o demonstrate  and p r e c i p i t a t i o n  planning  systems  such as  as the u n c e r t a i n t i e s are identical  of planning response,  and t h e i s t o be  similar. The  Upper  river  basins  P.Q.)  because  generation.  Columbia  Basin i s illustrative  ( e . g . Peace  River,  i t i s developed T h e two dams  o f a group  B.C., L a G r a n d e  extensively  are anticipated  of  Riviere,  f o r hydroelectric to  contribute  68  15%  o f B.C.'s t o t a l  is projected supply  from  electricity  to increase 18.6%  is partially  the  f e d by  area  the  by  22.9%  (2006)  of t h i s  trend  (BCEC,  Columbia i c e f i e l d  (MacLean's,  1977)  and  a  on  the  designed  40  designs  expectancy  and  o f 70 1928  to  75  record  f o r a major p r o j e c t  if  longer  with  the  design  regime.  most a g r i c u l t u r a l ,  supply  planning  requires  the  of trade  offs  of  100  - 1968  years. can  sensitive  of a s h o r t c l i m a t i c  were b a s e d  and  a  discontinuous  12  stations, four  Using  inconsistent  planning  between s h o r t  i n B.C.  (Chapter  output.  actions  term production  and  and  water  associated  fluctuations in electricity  a  particularly  e n e r g y d e v e l o p m e n t and  be  on  a short c l i m a t i c  problems,  A l l generation  of adaptive  a  years,  from  create  i n runoff w i l l  development  are  R e v e l s t o k e Dams w i t h  have a s i m i l a r f o u n d a t i o n  variability  corresponding  -  basis  t e r m i n d i c a t o r s a p p e a r t o be  indeed  Increased  the  p r e c i p i t a t i o n record  o f w h i c h d a t e b a c k 60  the  on  f o r M i c a and  year streamflow record  temperature  duration  Columbia  p r o j e c t s , w h i c h are  life  hundred  continuation  of a c l a s s of c l i m a t i c a l l y  suggested  river  elevations.  h y d r o e l e c t r i c developments  The  1976).  a f t e r a two  also representative  record.  energy  where g l a c i e r s  might p o s s i b l y l e a d t o i n c r e a s e d  snowpack a t h i g h e r The  Electricity  i s of i n t e r e s t because the  have r e c e n t l y s t a r t e d t o a d v a n c e a g a i n year r e c e s s i o n period  1990.  i t s s h a r e i n B.C.'s o v e r a l l  (1976) t o  Climatically  supply  One). with This  an  losses  analysis and  69 excesses  on  the  one  hand  and  the  other.  In  summary  the  grounds  of  significance  supplies where on  a  and  the  An  a  and,  on  British  support  Columbia of  a  power  class  systems  has  of  problems  been  the  River to  been  model  Basin,  made (see  and  to  the  process.  apply  Chapter  based  regime.  The  the  process  B.  System  C.  Identification  of  D.  E x p l o r a t i o n of  Uncertainty  E.  Pormulation  P.  Evaluation  G-.  Development  of  as  f o r the  not  the  this five  Upper  chapter steps  is  of  Recognition Identification  of A l t e r n a t i v e s  headings been  a  treated  Problem  Recognition  The  problem  in this  researcher  Uncertainty  of A l t e r n a t i v e s  A.  individual  to  steps:  Problem  have  of  first  A.  used  previously  Three)  remainder  describing in detail  seven-phase  phases  i s r e l e v a n t both  has  Columbia  be  life  on  climatic  planning  will  of  security  i n retrospect, unusual  outlined  this  to  area  system  Process attempt  devoted  study  term  r e p r e s e n t a t i v e case  planning  short  Planning  as  the  long  and  case the  Commitment  in  was  Package  discussion.  The  last  two  detail.  recognized  problem  has  by  been  an defined  as  70  an  i n a d e q u a t e management r e s p o n s e t o g r e a t e r  v a r i a b i l i t y when t h e The  present  o r i g i n a l design  i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d , but  one  third  o n l y h a l f the magnitude  s u g g e s t might have s t r u c k the b a s i n f r o m  C.  Hydro's present  to  continue  and  recorded.  critical  This  record drought i s l i k e l y  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h power s h o r t a g e s  one  capability  on  the  p e r i o d u n t i l a worse drought i s  "new"  u n c e r t a i n t i e s are  1864-1884.  response to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y i s  t o p l a n minimum p r o d u c t i o n  of the  the  in  the d u r a t i o n of a drought t h a t t r e e - r i n g i n d i c a t o r  B.  to  i s the  1941-1946, a r e l a t i v e l y d r y f i v e y e a r s  the  basis  s t u d i e s were u n d e r t a k e n .  base f o r energy c a p a b i l i t y p l a n n i n g  c r i t i c a l period  sources  climatic  identified  outlined i n this  unless  and  the  to  be  climatic  managed i n a manner  similar  report.  B.  System  Identification  The  s y s t e m s p e r t i n e n t t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a human  response to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y B a s i n are  c o m p r i s e d o f two  s y s t e m , and  an  s y s t e m s and The  n a t u r a l s y s t e m s , one  institutional  o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n the  i n the Upper Columbia R i v e r  societal  system a l l a f f e c t i n g system.  Figure  engineering or  7 shows  their relationships.  h y d r o e l e c t r i c system i n the Upper Columbia  c o m p r i s e s t h e M i c a Dam  and  p o w e r s t a t i o n and  Dam  and  Dam  i s p a r t of the Columbia R i v e r T r e a t y  the  powerhouse c u r r e n t l y under c o n s t r u c t i o n .  important  the  storage  and  Basin  Revelstoke The  performs  Mica an  r o l e f o r p r o j e c t s downstream i n Canada  71  WATCHERS  GLOBAL CUHAT1C SYSTEM  I  /ATMOSPHERIC EUVIROKEWT  seavi.cE j SOCIETAL SYSTBK1  UPPER  — - A  INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM (B.C. HYDROS  $  /  I "TFT  -~^\  I I I  IENERQY i 'INTERESTS I  \  k —  COLUMBIA HYDRO - HETEREO LOqICAL S Y S T E M  _ ^/  '*-^\  . ELECTRIC- \ MTY USERSi \  -»  >  IMFORMATIOKJ FLOWS PHYSICAL CONTROL Figure  7:  System R e l a t i o n s h i p s  H Y D R O -ELECTRIC SYSTEM  72  and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . 2600 MW,  M i c a has a g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y o f  w h i c h i s a c h i e v e d a t a mean a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w o f  20,510 c f s a n d R e v e l s t o k e ' s c a p a c i t y i s 2700 MW b a s e d on a mean a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w o f 28,830 c f s . The  i n s t i t u t i o n a l system  (B.C. Hydro) has been  d e v e l o p i n g and o p e r a t i n g a h y d r o e l e c t r i c  system i n t h e Upper  Columbia R i v e r .  system i s dependent  The p e r f o r m a n c e  of t h i s  on t h e h y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s y s t e m .  To t h i s - e n d t h e  i n s t i t u t i o n monitors temperature, p r e c i p i t a t i o n ,  snowpack  and s t r e a m f l o w i n t h e a r e a , a n d t h e s e r e c o r d s f o r m t h e b a s i s for i n i t i a l  development  and subsequent  R e v e l s t o k e a n d M i c a Dams.  operation ofthe  The p r e s e n c e o f t h e r e s e r v o i r s  i m p a c t s s t r e a m f l o w and t h e e v a p o r a t i o n r e g i m e . The  global climatic  system a f f e c t s the l o c a l  climatic  r e g i m e , b u t i t i s o n l y r e c e n t l y t h a t some p a r t s o f s o c i e t a l s y s t e m have begun t o r e c o g n i s e g l o b a l c l i m a t i c t h e i r i m p a c t s on l o c a l r e g i m e s . academics, n a t i o n a l weather attempting t o pass t h i s  The w e a t h e r  offices  t r e n d s and  watchers,  ( a n d t h e C.I.A.)  are  i n f o r m a t i o n on t o t h e r e s t o f t h e  s o c i e t a l s y s t e m t h r o u g h news c o v e r a g e , r e p o r t s i n p r e s s and p o p u l a r s c i e n t i f i c m a g a z i n e s .  A t t e m p t s have a l s o  made t o i n c r e a s e t h e c l i m a t i c a w a r e n e s s An  example i s t h e p r o j e c t  been  of i n s t i t u t i o n s .  "Living with  Climatic  C h a n g e " , s p o n s o r e d by t h e S c i e n c e C o u n c i l o f C a n a d a a n d t h e Canadian ' M e t e o r o l o g i c a l S o c i e t y , which has encouraged institutions  t o assess the implications of the various  climatic  scenarios  Council,  1976).  of  Identification  The  t h e o r e t i c a l model suggests t h e f o l l o w i n g  of U n c e r t a i n t i e s  1.  uncertainty  of c l i m a t i c system  2.  uncertainty  of c l i m a t i c  3.  uncertainty  of impacts  4-  uncertainty  of r i s k  case  classes  structure  variance  valuation  2 and 3 h a v e b e e n a c t i v e l y a d d r e s s e d i n  study. o f system s t r u c t u r e has been r e f e r r e d t o i n  C h a p t e r Two a n d t h e m a i n c o n c l u s i o n s  were:  30-40 y e a r s p r i o r t o 1970 w e r e u n u s u a l l y  a) g l o b a l l y t h e  warm a n d s t a b l e ;  t h e c a u s e s o f c l i m a t i c change a r e o b s c u r e b u t t h e r e a r e  strong pointers intensity,  increased  towards t h e s o l a r output i n terms of  s p e c t r u m and m a g n e t i c o r i e n t a t i o n a s w e l l a s  terrestiali  c a u s e s s u c h a s t h e b r e a k d o w n o f t h e ozone l a y e r ,  CO^ a n d p a r t i c u l a t e p o l l u t i o n ; c ) t h e p r o c e s s e s  that r e d i s t r i b u t e energy across understood; historic  the globe are not  d) a r e l a t i v e l y c o n s i s t e n t  climate  Uncertainty the  classes  uncertainty:  Uncertainty  b)  (Science  C.  Uncertainty the  t h a t t h e group has o u t l i n e d  instrumental  i n the l i t e r a t u r e  p i c t u r e of the  c a n be b u i l t up by u s e o f p r o x y  of variance record  completely  records.  has been i d e n t i f i e d by comparing w i t h accounts of long term  (NAS, 1 9 7 5 ; Lamb, 1 9 7 2 ; S c i e n c e  variability Council,  1975).  I t appeared, u n l i k e l y t h a t  record  (1928-1968) w o u l d he r e p r e s e n t a t i v e  duration  and r a t e s  Columbia R i v e r regarded  Basin.  about  meteorological Uncertainty analyses  system  longest  o f low s t r e a m f l o w s  generation Uncertainty  specifically  (B. C. H y d r o ,  term p r o d u c t i o n quantified.  of t h i s  exclude a n t i c i p a t e d those  by a p r o l o n g e d  a drought •  thermal  1975). addressed.  t e r m s y s t e m s e c u r i t y and s h o r t  losses are recognised,  b u t have n o t been  I t appears the system i s p r e s e n t l y regarded as  and H y d r o ' s p r e s e n t  industrial  of the system i s reached.  o f r i s k v a l u a t i o n has n o t b e e n f u l l y  t r a d e o f f s between l o n g  record.  energy  I t i s a l s o assumed t h a t  n o t be a c c o m p a n i e d  outage  The i n t e g r a t e d  (1941-1946) i s  p e r i o d when t h e f i r m  recorded.  the  to perform within the  l e v e l s u n d e r worse s e q u e n c e s t h a n  sequence w i l l  o f the hydro-  i n d i c a t e d by t h e 40 y e a r  o r minimum p r o d u c t i o n  instrumentally  considerable  by r e v i e w i n g  planning.  s y s t e m has b e e n d e s i g n e d  These a n a l y s e s production  states  record i s  exists.  as t h e c r i t i c a l  capability  safe  of future  hence  o f i m p a c t h a s been i d e n t i f i e d  sequence  of the magnitude,  the h i s t o r i c  base f o r p l a n n i n g ,  of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y  defined  The  Presently  the range  streamflow  c l i m a t i c change i n t h e U p p e r  pertaining to generation  generating  The  of h i s t o r i c  as the best  uncertainty  range  the instrumental  customers  confidence.  p o l i c y t o have none o f i t s m a j o r  on i n t e r r u p t i b l e  contracts  i sindicative  7 5  D.  Exploration  In  the  course  uncertainty attempted system  to narrow  of  the  to  the  reduce  the  uncertainties  review  i n the  of  data  the  study  is fully  which  record  in different  merits  of  the  four  choice  to  the  analysis  purposes  Tree-ring  reported  on  climatic in  perfected  could  be  glaciers, forms.  this  to  of v a r i a n c e ,  soon used  study  to  extend  a l l carry  sources  (UBC,  sequence  r e v e a l e d the  icecores,  tree-rings  studies  Basin.  the  the  soon as  existence instrumental  tree-rings,  fossil  paleoclimatic  C o n s i d e r a t i o n s of  data  of  directed  Columbia  Layered  proxy  of  been  the  relative  narrowed  the  most  the  feasible  1 9 7 7 ) .  Analysis  Tree-ring developed  Upper  i n history. mountain  has  literature  and  to  of u n c e r t a i n t y of  effort  pollen  a  of has  the  back  with  range  areas review  of  bulk  record  the  literature  this  "proxy"  for  A  several  and  combination A  study  Two.  The  and  of t h i s  explored.  structure  Chapter  aiming  were  of U n c e r t a i n t y  analysis  -.in t h e to  early  become  resolution  1 , 3 0 0 years  dendrochronology  n i n e t e e n hundreds  an  extremely  level  before  or  of  the  one  useful  year  present  and  and  was was  source  gradually  of proxy  records  in\British  initially  data  extending  Columbia.  up  76  D e p e n d i n g on s p e c i e s and latewood in  density reflects  the t r e e ' s  precipitation  annual  i s o n l y one  Por  climatic  converted  T h i s might  and  c a n be  by t h e r e m o v a l  or latewood  density  the c l i m a t i c  indication from  northwestern Three a)  (Smith,  study i t proved  means t h a t  had  for  data.  of  dendro-  feasible  t o o b t a i n an  d u r a t i o n of  deviations  elsewhere  in  America.  account  (Fritts, An  time  1970).  been o b s e r v e d  s o u r c e s were o f 26  used:  tree-ring  northwestern America  b)  enables  i n a number o f  t h e sample means f o r m t h e b a s i s  indicator  An  indices  on t h e t r e e - r i n g  o f o n l y t h e m a g n i t u d e and  climatic  of the  r e c o r d back t h r o u g h  i s normally covered  c l i m a t o l o g i c a l analyses this  limiting  A h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e i n s t r u m e n t a l  A sample o f t r e e s  For  these  a n a l y s e s the t r e e - r i n g w i d t h d a t a are  t o extend  and  of  o b t a i n e d i f the  by means o f a . r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s  locations  temperature,  of t h e s e .  r i n g width  the a n a l y s t  be  or  (or factors)  or a combination  to r i n g - w i d t h i n d i c e s  growth t r e n d . record  growth.  results  the t r e e - r i n g w i d t h  the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r  or s o i l m o i s t u r e  b u t more s p e c i f i c factor  location,  chronologies i n  d a t i n g back t o  1500  1965).  empirical reconstruction Lake A t h a b a s c a  of water  (1810-1967)  levels  (Stockton,  1971).  77 c)  The P e y t o  Lake c h r o n o l o g y  correlating  latewood  d e n s i t y w i t h August r u n o f f s i n three dating All  h a c k t o 1680 ( P a r k e r ,  three sources  suggest  t h e same r a n g e  Climatic  climatic  reconstructed analysis  variability.  Worth A m e r i c a  of northwestern  climatic  (1965) on t h e b a s i s o f r i n g  the p h y s i o l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s  variables  and t h e p h o t o s y n t h e s i s  a r e d e m o n s t r a t e d and a f t e r  analysis  i tis  concluded  chronologies exhibit  Narrow r i n g s  result  from  and f o o d  elaborate  t o slow c e l l  i n wider  f o r a l l t r e e s but those to the n o r t h e r n  formation.  tree-rings."  tree  width b u t most  t h a n w i t h summer  with moisture.'  d r y and warm c o n d i t i o n s  the p e r i o d p r e c e d i n g t h e growth season,  which lead  accumu-  a closer relationship  abnormally  Lake.  statistical  June t o J u l y ,  autumn, w i n t e r and s p r i n g m o i s t u r e  result  width  between  that " i n general ring  t o a 14 month p e r i o d f r o m  tree-ring  during  A m e r i c a has been  J a s p e r and on t h e P r a s e r R i v e r n e a r W i l l i a m s  study  lations  by P r i t t s  but they a l l  o f 26 c h r o n o l o g i e s , t h r e e o f w h i c h a r e i n C a n a d a  i n Banff, In t h i s  of expected  history  1971).  limitations,  H i s t o r y of Northwestern  The  relates  have t h e i r  rivers  Moist  conditions  and c o o l c o n d i t i o n s  This general conclusion holds  g r o w i n g on h i g h e l e v a t i o n s o r c l o s e  line.  78 Por the Canadian Rockies 1751-1760,  the periods  1651-1660,  1786-1805, 1 8 5 6 - 1 8 7 5 , 1896-1905 a r e c l a s s e d a s  r e l a t i v e l y dry, while moist  conditions prevailed  i n 1726-1740,  1 7 6 1 - 1 7 7 5 , 1 8 1 6 - 1 8 4 1 , 1 8 7 6 - 1 8 9 0 , 1901-1915-  Pritts  these p e r i o d s a f t e r determining the r e l a t i v e  departures of  overlapping ten-year periods.  identifies  R e l a t i v e departure f o r each  ten-year period i s :  _  10 y r . mean - 270 y r . mean s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f 270 y r . i n t e r v a l  RD t h u s becomes a d i m e n s i o n l e s s e x p r e s s i o n w h i c h f o r comparative ranges  from  purposes.  c a n "be u s e d  I n the study the r e l a t i v e  -1.95 t o 2.04-  p e r t u r b a t i o n s was a s s e s s e d  departure  The m a g n i t u d e a n d d u r a t i o n o f by a n a l y s i n g P r i t t ' s  relative  d e p a r t u r e t a b l e s f o r t h e 26 c h r o n o l o g i e s ( r e p r o d u c e d i n A p p e n d i x One) f o r d e p a r t u r e s g r e a t e r t h a n  1.  Departures  were  c l a s s e d i n f o u r c a t e g o r i e s o f magnitude and f o u r p e r i o d s o f duration. Table  1:  R e l a t i v e Departure  by M a g n i t u d e and D u r a t i o n  10 y r s  15 y r s  20 y r s i 25 y r s  1.00 < RD -1.20 < RD  < 1.20 < 1.00  53  15  1  1.21 < RD -1 .40 < RD  < 1.40 < -1 .21  17  19  8  1 .41 < RD -1 .60 < RD  < 1.60 <-1.41  4  8  1  1  1  1  RD > 1.61 < -1.61  2  The relative period 1300  t a b l e shows t h e numbers o f e v e n t s departure  of time.  of a c e r t a i n magnitude l a s t e d f o r a d e f i n e d  P o r e x a m p l e , t h e r e h a v e b e e n 19 e v e n t s  A.D. when c h r o n o l o g i e s d e p a r t e d ,  y e a r s , b e t w e e n +1.21 a n d + 1.41 the  i n which the  270 y e a r mean.  times  f o r a p e r i o d o f 15 t h e 270 y e a r SD  E v e n t s a r e c l a s s e d by t h e i r  d u r a t i o n and t h e a v e r a g e r e l a t i v e  since  from  longest  departure.  T h i s t a b l e s h o u l d n o t be i n t e r p r e t e d i n p r o b a b i l i s t i c terms b u t m e r e l y as i l l u s t r a t i n g variability.  t h e range of c l i m a t i c  I f t h e amount o f r u n o f f i n t h e C o l u m b i a i s a  f u n c t i o n o f t e m p e r a t u r e and p r e c i p i t a t i o n , sensitivity  then  reasonable  t e s t s f o r t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c s y s t e m w o u l d be  c o n d i t i o n s where t h e mean i s 1.5 SD o f t h e d e s i g n f l o w s e r i e s f o r a p e r i o d o f 15 y e a r s , The  o r 1.3 x SD f o r 20 y e a r s .  o r i g i n a l t r e e - r i n g d a t a s e r i e s i n B a n f f , J a s p e r and  W i l l i a m s Lake were a n a l y s e d  i n d e t a i l t o g a i n an i m p r e s s i o n  o f t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f u s i n g o n l y a s h o r t r e c o r d and a s s u m i n g it  r e p r e s e n t a t i v e f o r a much l o n g e r t i m e  cornerstone  o f B. C. H y d r o ' s p l a n n i n g .  deviation of the r e l a t i v e and  departure  extend Table  The mean and s t a n d a r d  d e v i a t i o n of the period  The l a t t e r was s e l e c t e d b e c a u s e t h e d a t a d i d n o t  t o 1968. 2.  i s the  s e r i e s was c a l c u l a t e d  c o m p a r e d t o t h e mean and s t a n d a r d  1916-1940.  frame as t h i s  The r e s u l t s  of this  a n a l y s i s a r e shown i n  80 Table  2: Mean & S t a n d a r d  • 1916-1940 S.D.  -0.43  0.44  0.17  -0.07  -0.32  0.48  0.37  -0.07  -0.55  0.45  0.29  Series Mean  Banff 1461-1955  -0.07  J asper 1541-1945 W i l l i a m s Lake 1426-1940  series series. first  1916-1940 Mean  mean and t h e s t a n d a r d  c a n be s e e n  d e v i a t i o n s o f t h e whole  t o be h i g h e r t h a n  Translated-in climatic  half  of this  d a t a would  departures  infer  Saskatchewan  to streamflow  tend  examine t h e r e l a t i v e  rivers.  of the data  to underestimate  with the  expected.  other c h r o n o l o g i e s which r e f l e c t and  i n the regime than the  that the a p p l i c a t i o n  derived earlier  t h a t m i g h t be  We w i l l - n o w  means t h a t t h e  suggest.  an u n u s u a l l y s m a l l v a r i a n c e w i l l departures  of the p a r t i a l '  c e n t u r y was. r e l a t i v e l y warmer and d r i e r  These d a t a a l s o relative  those  terms t h i s  b u t w i t h much s m a l l e r f l u c t u a t i o n s l o n g term  Series  Series S.D.  Series  The  D e v i a t i o n of P a r t i a l & E n t i r e  departure  i n two  r u n o f f i n the Athabasca  81 Lake A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s The L a k e A t h a b a s c a s t u d y was p a r t o f a n i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y s t u d y t o d e t e r m i n e l o n g term r i v e r r u n o f f and l a k e l e v e l s and t h e i r e f f e c t s the Peace-Athabasca D e l t a . '  on a n i m a l a n d p l a n t l i f e i n  S t o c k t o n and P r i t t s  (1971)  used  60 t r e e - r i n g s e r i e s f r o m s i x s i t e s and a p p l i e d a c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s , r e l a t i n g w a t e r l e v e l measurements t o the t r e e - r i n g d a t a o f t h e s i x s i t e s , levels  to reconstruct the  o f L a k e A t h a b a s c a b a c k t o 1810.  The t e a m s e l e c t e d  white spruce, which i n the Peace-Athabasca from i t s c l i m a t i c temperature.  i s f a r enough  l i m i t n o t t o be v e r y r e s p o n s i v e t o  The s p e c i e s t e n d s t o grow w e l l when a r i v e r  o r s t r e a m i s c l o s e by, b u t i f a s t r e a m meander i s c u t o f f or m i g r a t e s , t r e e g r o w t h d e t e r i o r a t e s and o t h e r s p e c i e s begin to invade the s i t e s .  The a u t h o r s s u g g e s t t h a t w a t e r '  stage a f f e c t s the tree growth of white spruce.  The t r e e  g r o w t h - w a t e r s t a g e r e l a t i o n s h i p may n o t a l w a y s be p o s i t i v e ; f l o o d i n g f o r i n s t a n c e might l i m i t r o o t growth, a f f e c t i n g the tree's water absorption i n the f o l l o w i n g y e a r s , or f l o o d i n g might s u p p l y an excess, o f n u t r i e n t s r e s u l t i n g i n h i g h growth .in subsequent  years.  The a u t h o r s a d m i t t h e s e  c o u l d n o t be f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t e d . in a l l  possibilities  A fundamental  assumption  dendrochronology i s that the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r  t h e same o v e r t i m e . of s i t e s  remains  I n c r e a s e d sample s i z e s f r o m a v a r i e t y  tends t o improve d a t a q u a l i t y .  82 D e t a i l e d l a k e l e v e l v a l u e s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h r e e p e r i o d s i n e a c h y e a r , May  21-30, J u l y  11-20,  and t h e t a b l e i s c o n t a i n e d i n A p p e n d i x One.  September The May  21-30 level  appeared to present the g r e a t e s t v a r i a n c e i n comparison w i t h the i n s t r u m e n t a l record plotted  on g r a p h p a p e r  1935-1967 and t h e s e d a t a w e r e (see Appendix  One).  The L a k e A t h a b a s c a l e v e l s a p p e a r t o h a v e  considerable  s i g n i f i c a n c e as an i n d i c a t o r o f s t r e a m f l o w i n t h e C o l u m b i a River. record  A c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s between (1928-1968)  the annual streamflow  a t R e v e l s t o k e and t h e s i m u l a t e d May  l e v e l s i n t h e s u b s e q u e n t y e a r s gave r = 0.52 t h e 0.001  level.  c r i t i c a l period  I t was  lake  significant  at  a l s o e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t f o r the  (1941-1946)  r = 0.93  s i g n i f i c a n t a t the  0.05 l e v e l s i m i l a r l y i n t h e p e r i o d  of h i g h s t r e a m f l o w between  1929 and  s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.05  1934 g i v e s a n  r = 0.98  B e c a u s e no t i m e s e r i e s c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s was results  overestimate the s i g n i f i c a n c e  of the  level.  used, the  relationship.  However a p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p c a n  be  offered. The m a i n c o n t r i b u t o r t o L a k e A t h a b a s c a i s t h e A t h a b a s c a R i v e r w h i c h o r i g i n a t e s i n t h e R o c k y M o u n t a i n s and i s f e d by the Columbia I c e f i e l d , which a l s o feeds the Columbia R i v e r . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 30% o f the A t h a b a s c a R i v e r r u n o f f a t Lake Athabasca i s d e r i v e d from Rocky Mountain  snowmelt  (Stockton,  1971) and t h i s a g r e e s c l o s e l y w i t h t h e 2 7 % e x p l a i n e d between  t h e C o l u m b i a s t r e a m f l o w and L a k a A t h a b a s c a  variance  levels.  It  i s reasonable  drought the moist  t o suggest t h a t i n periods maritime  o f extreme  a i r masses d e p o s i t most o f t h e  p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n the Rocky Mountains w h i l e i n extremely periods p r e c i p i t a t i o n f a l l s  both  i n the Rockies  the e n t i r e s t r e t c h o f t h e A t h a b a s c a d r a i n a g e "normal" years  simulated  and a l o n g  basin.  p r e c i p i t a t i o n east of the Rockies  on l o c a l f a c t o r s .  wet  In  i s dependent  C l e a r l y t h i s w o u l d make t h e L a k e A t h a b a s c a  l a k e l e v e l s a v a l u a b l e i n d i c a t o r o f extreme  periods  i n the Columbia basin. The  mean a n d v a r i a n c e  of the e n t i r e  s e r i e s were compared  t o t h e 1928-1968 p e r i o d . Table  3:  Mean a n d V a r i a n c e Series Mean  1928-1968 Mean  Series S.D.  1928-1968 S.D.  685.2  1 .76  1 .058  Simulated l e v e l s . Lake A t h a b a s c a 685.9 (1810-1967) Ft. a b o v e s e a level-  The  o f Lake A t h a b a s c a L e v e l s  40 y e a r mean i s o n l y s l i g h t l y b e l o w t h e s e r i e s mean, b u t  the v a r i a n c e  i n t h e 40 y e a r p e r i o d i s c o n s i d e r a b l y s m a l l e r ,  confirming e a r l i e r suggestions  t h a t H y d r o ' s 40 y e a r  i s not r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of l o n g e r term c l i m a t i c The  graph of simulated  period  regimes.  l a k e l e v e l s was s u b j e c t e d t o a  v i s u a l a n a l y s i s o f p e r s i s t e n t a n o m a l i e s above o r below t h e mean v a l u e .  The p e r i o d p r i o r t o 1850 was i g n o r e d due t o t h e  limited  of t r e e - r i n g samples.  size  The d a t a show t h a t  since  84' 1850  t h e r e have been t h r e e anomaly p e r i o d s : T a b l e 4:  Lake A t h a b a s c a Anomaly P e r i o d s Relative Departure 157 y r S.D.  Relative Departure 40 y r S.D.  Period  Charact-e r i-s-t-i c  I  1864-1880  lower  levels  -1 .39  -1 .92  II  1892-1910  higher  levels  + 1.19  + 2.62  III  1921-1925  higher  levels-  + 1.17  + 2.59  U s i n g t h e r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e t e c h n i q u e w i t h t h e 40 y e a r t h e 157 y e a r s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n as d e n o m i n a t o r s , shown i n T a b l e 4 a r e w e l l w i t h i n t h e r a n g e  of  and  the v a l u e s  Fritts  1  suggestions f o r northwestern America. The  critical  p e r i o d s u g g e s t e d by t h i s  a n a l y s i s would  be  t h e 15 y e a r d r o u g h t t h a t s t r u c k t h e r e g i o n b e t w e e n 1864  and  1880  40  and w h i c h w o u l d  be a b o u t  year streamflow record.  There  1.9  t i m e s t h e S.D.  i s only p a r t i a l  t h e 1864-1875 d r y p e r i o d s u g g e s t e d by P r i t t s  of the  overlap with  (1965)  in his  study of c l i m a t i c anomalies i n northwestern America.  P e y t o Lake The  Study  third  i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e p e r s i s t e n c e and  o f c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y was  derived from a t r e e - r i n g  l o g y n e a r P e y t o L a k e , w h i c h was the August  temperature  magnitude chrono-  h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d to both  o f the Lake L o u i s e w e a t h e r  station  and  85 the August  r u n o f f i n the N o r t h Saskatchewan,  Surwapta,  and  M i s t o y a R i v e r s ( P a r k e r , 1971). A s a m p l e o f c o r e s t a k e n f r o m 17 t r e e s a t a n e l e v a t i o n o f 6,600 f t . density.  was a n a l y s e d i n t e r m s  o f r i n g w i d t h and l a t e w o o d  The l a t e w o o d d e n s i t y p r o v i d e d a b e t t e r  master  t r e e - r i n g c h r o n o l o g y a n d t h i s was u s e d f o r c o m p a r i s o n climatic variables.  against  Latewood d e n s i t y as opposed t o w i d t h  tends t o r e f l e c t b e t t e r the growing c o n d i t i o n s a t the s h o r t period  o f t h e y e a r when l a t e w o o d d e v e l o p s .  temperature  August  c o r r e l a t e d h i g h l y , r = 0.85 a n d r = 0.79  r e s p e c t i v e l y a n d s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0.001 l e v e l . temperatures significant  r u n o f f and  The  August  and r u n o f f w e r e c o r r e l a t e d w i t h r = 0.72 a t . t h e 0.01 l e v e l  r u n o f f i n the r i v e r system  ( P a r k e r , 1971).  The A u g u s t  i s largely attributable to glacial  m e l t r a t h e r t h a n snowpack a n d summer m e l t a s i s t h e c a s e i n the Columbia R i v e r . this  T h i s h y p o t h e s i s was f u r t h e r t e s t e d i n  s t u d y by c o r r e l a t i n g a c c u m u l a t e d  September t o August  precipitation  from  m i n u s a y e a r l y e v a p o r a t i o n l o s s on t h e  one hand a n d l a t e w o o d d e n s i t y on t h e o t h e r w h i c h r = 0.67 ( s i g n i f i c a n t a t 0.01 l e v e l ) .  gave  Because o f the  p r o x i m i t y of the Peyto G l a c i e r these data p r i m a r i l y the August  streamflow conditions i n a r i v e r  g l a c i a l meltwater  reflect  s y s t e m f e d by  and f o r t h i s r e a s o n c a u t i o n s h o u l d be  e x e r c i s e d i n i n t e r p r e t i n g these d a t a as a r e l e v a n t of annual streamflow regime  indication  i n other basins.  S u r p r i s i n g l y t h i s chronology displayed  opposite  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o the four others.  The mean and v a r i a n c e  t h e w h o l e s e r i e s a n d t h e 4 0 y e a r p e r i o d a r e shown i n  of  T a b l e 5 a n d t h e 4 0 y e a r mean i s h i g h e r a n d t h e v a r i a b i l i t y for  t h e same p e r i o d was g r e a t e r .  Table 5:  Mean a n d V a r i a n c e P e y t o L a k e  Latewood Density Indices -  Series S.D.  1928-1968 Mean  Series Mean 99.6  103.32  Chronology 1928-1968 S.D.  23.1  28.9  -•  For the purposes  o f i d e n t i f y i n g t h e d u r a t i o n and  magnitude o f c l i m a t i c anomalies back t o 1800, were used  T a b l e 6:  the t r e e - r i n g data, extending  to obtain relative departures.  Peyto Lake Anomaly P e r i o d s R e l a t i v e Departure  Period I  series S.D.  40 y r S.D.  T  -0.96  -0.74  Characteristic  1804-1818 , l o w  flow/low  with  -  II  1882-1886  high flow/high T  +0.98  +0.60  III  1928-1942  high flow/high T  +0.73  +0.42  The r e l a t i v e d e p a r t u r e s a r e w e l l w i t h i n t h e r a n g e o f magnitude and d u r a t i o n o f t h o s e observed  i n northwestern  A m e r i c a and c o n s i d e r a b l y s m a l l e r t h a n t h o s e i n t h e Lake A t h a b a s c a -chronology-.  87  The rate  i n d i c a t o r d a t a were a l s o a n a l y s e d  o f change i n low,  analysis the  could not  simulated  transition  levels  carried  and  of the  A  hut  i n s p e c t i o n of  a visual  of Lake A t h a b a s c a s u g g e s t s three  thorough  that  the  phases v a r i e s from  appears independent  previous  of the n a t u r e  one  or  phase.  These e x p l o r a t i o n s of the u n c e r t a i n t y of v a r i a n c e the Upper Columbia B a s i n record  probably  show t h a t t h e  underestimates  that  long  term v a r i a b i l i t y  than  this  instrumental  of l o c a l  stability  stability, and  was  presented  have s t a t e d best  i s probably  support  which dominated  the  i n Chapter  The  clearly  streamflow  considerably  to the  30  and  greater  This  evidence  t h e s i s of g l o b a l  t o 40  Two.  (Science C o u n c i l ,  then  year  indicated.  years  before  I f , as many  1975), t h e  1970  meteorologists  past  record  is  for effects  o f the  future  a representative record  should  be  available basis f o r planning  climate,  40  in  average annual streamflow  r e c o r d has  lends  and  high flows.  out  p e r i o d between t h e  to three years duration  he  n o r m a l and  f o r sequence  dendrochronological  evidence  between t h e  Lake A t h a b a s c a l e v e l s  and  the  been o v e r e s t i m a t e d .  The  worst p o s s i b l e drought  that and  can  be  almost  forms the evidence  inferred twice  present  from the  the magnitude  statistical  be  with  probably  the  should  used.  interpreted  has  c a u t i o n and  presented  the  evidence  Columbia  i s three  of the " c r i t i c a l  b a s e f o r power g e n e r a t i o n  a l s o suggests  that  correlation  longer  streamflow  times period"  planning.  term average  as  long  which The  streamflow  is  likely  to  2.5  t o be  higher  times the  and  standard  that periods  deviation of the  have p e r s i s t e d f o r p e r i o d s Obvious areas analyses  will  be  o f up  to  f o r improving  suggested  further explorations  15  the  i n the  analysis w i l l  Uncertainty  of  be  used f o r d e s i g n  based  up  streamflow s e r i e s  years.  reliability  but  on  purposes  the  the  the  i s not  4 0 year  of  these the  subsequent  above  scenario.  of the Upper Columbia B a s i n ,  sources  c l o s e by  and  show f l u c t u a t i o n s o f  2.5  times the  of a reconstructed  record,  o f d r o u g h t and  S.D. the  streamflow  representative  history  periods  of  Impact  Having e s t a b l i s h e d that  downwards and  flow  section dealing with  of u n c e r t a i n t y ,  sensitivity  of h i g h  of the  climatic  that i n d i c a t o r  1.9  times  upward, d u r i n g consequences of  increased  record  the  S.D.  longer  parts  prolonged  p r e c i p i t a t i o n must  be  examined.  Mica  Dam The  has S.D.  an  M i c a Dam  has  a nameplate c a p a c i t y of  annual average d e s i g n  (standard The  deviation)  under the  and  s t r e a m f l o w o f 20,510 c f s w i t h  o f 2,055 c f s  dam's f i r m e n e r g y c a p a b i l i t y ,  power p r o d u c t i o n  2600 MW  lowest  five  (B. C. the  Hydro,  minimum  years  of  a  1977).  annual  recorded  streamflows  (1941-1946) i s 7,422 x  below a v e r a g e i n which  average  streamflow, point  design flow. annual  t h e dam  a t w h i c h no  Based  will  calibrated  b u t some r o u g h  1.9 be  S.D.  further.  5$.  10^ kwh/year o r 19$  over the r e m a i n i n g  13-14  p o s s i b l y be presently  scenario  extended  indicate  reached  design product-  i n 21 months,  Under  the  f o r Mica  of the c u r r e n t portion  water  the  could  and  potential  o f the Columbia  infeasible  of p e r s i s t e n t l y  Columbia  River  at present.  high  streamflow  i n c r e a s e s above the d e s i g n s t r e a m f l o w w i l l into  and  average  5$ l o w e r .  t h e draw-down p e r i o d  s u c h a move seems p o l i t i c a l l y  converted  Athabasca  P r o d u c t i o n would  years of the drought  power s h o r t a g e s i n t h e U.S.  sequences,  minimum  a n o t h e r y e a r by u s i n g t h e s t o r a g e  In l i g h t  Under a s c e n a r i o  be  annual streamflow i s  r e s e r v e d f o r the U n i t e d S t a t e s u n d e r  River Treaty.  power  could not  below a v e r a g e  p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s w o u l d p o s s i b l y be Lake A t h a b a s c a  in 3i  U n d e r t h e Lake  1864-1880, a v e r a g e  the  electricity-  annual  This  calculations  Draw-down l e v e l s w o u l d be  reduced  and  b e l o w d e s i g n s t r e a m f l o w minimum.  6,658 x  ion.  even  drop a f u r t h e r  scenario,  period,  below d e s i g n  to annual streamflow,  years the p l a n t ' s  i s reduced  drought  critical  i s 1 S.D.  storage i s l e f t  production  p r o d u c t i o n may  9-7$  r e a c h i t s draw-down l e v e l s ,  active  I n subsequent  kwh/year o r  on t h i s  streamflow  o u t p u t becomes p r o p o r t i o n a l years.  10  electricity  and  the system w i l l  t h e r m a l power p r o d u c t i o n and  absorb  be this  t h e e x p o r t o f power t o  90  other u t i l i t i e s .  No c a l c u l a t i o n s  hut Hydro o f f i c i a l s  indicated  seemed u n l i k e l y u n d e r ( B . C. H y d r o ,  Revelstoke The  have b e e n c a r r i e d o u t ,  that  even minor  these h i g h streamflow  spillage sequences'  1977).  Dam  impact  on t h e R e v e l s t o k e Dam  o f magnitude as M i c a .  i s i n t h e same  The two a r e c l o s e l y i n t e r c o n n e c t e d  with Mica c a r r y i n g the storage f o r both r e s e r v o i r s . R e v e l s t o k e Dam an average S.D.  is  has a n a m e p l a t e  capacity  annual design streamflow  o f 2,708 c f s (B. C. H y d r o , The  dam's f i r m  order  energy  and has  o f 28,830 c f s w i t h a n  1977).  capability  9.3$ b e l o w d e s i g n a v e r a g e  o f 2700 MW  The  i s 7420 x 10^ w h i c h  and t h e draw-down  period i s  3h y e a r s . Under t h e Lake A t h a b a s c a  drought  scenario  the average  a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w a t R e v e l s t o k e w o u l d be 23,684 c f s and t h i s would produce average.  After  draw-down  levels  solely  6490 x 10^ kwh/yr. o r 17.8$ b e l o w d e s i g n  21 months t h e M i c a r e s e r v o i r w o u l d  dependent  production levels  reach  and R e v e l s t o k e power p r o d u c t i o n would be on s t r e a m f l o w , could  and a v e r a g e  minimum  p o s s i b l y decrease a f u r t h e r  23.8$ b e l o w d e s i g n p r o d u c t i o n .  5$ t o  9 1  Impact  on  The the  Integrated Mica  total  planned  component (B.C.  and  of the  Hydro,  System  R e v e l s t o k e Dams f o r m energy  capability  generating Based  1 9 7 5 ) .  on  public  will  capacity,  although i t i s understood  B.C.  Hydro,  significantly system Lake  more  reduce  Columbia  produces  the  the  of the  rest  losses  that  subsequent outstrip  This  plants and  River  firm  scenario  Basin  energy  only  occur  years,  i n the  however,  making  confined  and  rest  system  Commission,  plans  remains the  projected  power  If to  entire  the the system  i n Table 7 ,  absorb  pre-draw-down  the  of the  indicated  would  thermal  generating  variability.  capability  integrated  will  of System section  scenario i n B.C.  the  close  drought  the  current  climatic  the  Energy  t h e r m a l component, to  '80's  documents,  Hydro's  of  hydroelectric late  (B.C.  third  any  period. demands  power In might  power s u p p l y .  Conditions  drought  the  one  approximately half  that  susceptible  Athabasca  Upper  1 9 7 7 )  of the i n the  component  1 9 7 7 ;  constitute  system  about  fact  this  examines  the  impact  of the  simultaneously affecting Given  that  seems  Failure  the  a more  and  Columbia  reasonable  Athabasca  a l l hydroelectric  pervasiveness of  the Peace  Lake  climatic  change  Basins are  fairly  possibility.  In energy  these  sensitivity  capability  forecasted  demand  reproduced  on  report "The on  the  of hydroelectric load  Table  7,  "Alternatives  firm  energy  system  critical  period."  size  and  from  For  Revelstoke  would  Williston  1.0  Lake  would  year  representative The  five  year  recorded -  determine  S.D. -.  the  streamflows Average  to  from  the  lowest  five  referred the  capacity, In below  of  of  losses  1975).  to  as  energy  of  the  capability on  type,  period  when  design flows, Mica but  i t is  and  reported  not. i n Hydro's  the  climate  studies  i n the  period  likely  capability been  works  firm  energy  Pre  post  draw-down power  worse  of  1.5  to  capabilities  and  f o r 15  result  14%  events. than  that:  persist  out  present  is  region.  under  levels  i n streamflow  which  record  streamflow  assumed  of r e s p e c t i v e l y  are:  (1941-1946) i s  minimum  design streamflow  power  force  generation  critical  levels  streamflow  reductions  task  years  depending  the  the  are  Hydro,  (1928-1968) s t r e a m f l o w  These  and  margin  (B.C.  plants  firm  plants,  hydroelectric  1946)  S.D.  i t has  average  thermal  energy  the  units.  energy  annual  below  design  the  by  critical  representative To  of  assumptions  forty  existing  i s derived  r e a c h draw-down  crucial The  are  firm  thermal  the  and  1975-1990"  (1941  m a t u r i t y of levels  The  which  60-80% o f p l a n t  streamflow  that  the  i s established  streamflows  from  and  capability  recorded  ranges  analyses, the  1.9 years.  i n uniform  and  19%  below  5%  and  10%  shown  losses  are  the  below  i n Table equal.  7-  R E C O M M E N D E D  no  TABLE 7:'  E N E R G Y  C A P A B I L I T Y  B A L A N C E  P L A N —  I N T E G R A T E D  S Y S T E M  BASED ON CRITICAL PERIOD (In Millions of kwrt)  F i s c a l Year  75/76. 76/77  77/78  78/79  79/80  80/81  82/8i  83/84  84/85  85/86  86/87  87/88  88/89  89/90  90/91  7161 12250 2330 6740 3222 2458  7161 7161 7161 12250 12250 12250 2330 . 2330 2330 6740 6740 6740 32S0 3250 3250 2610 2610 2610 3553 6872 6894  7161 12250 2220 6967 3250 2610 7069  7161 13904 1997 7422 3659 2610 7420  7161 14457 1997 7422 3793 2610 7420  7161 14457 1997 7422 3793 2610 7420  7161 144S7 1997 7422 3793 2610 7420  7161 144S7 1997 7422 3793 2610 7420  7161 14457 1997 7422 3793 2675 .7420  37894  41213  41235  41527  44173  44860 .44860  44860  44860  44925  5520  5520 711  5520 5745  5520 10452  5520 12624  5520 18050  5520 29086  5520 31042 3800  5520 31730 7910  Firm Energy C a p a b i l i t y In-Service  81/82  /  Hydroelectric Plants (S) -  7070  Existing CM. Shrum Kootenay Cunal Mica S i t e One Seven H l l o Revelstoke  12250 583 -  Sub t o t a l  7070 12250 2088 2386  7126 12250 2330 6040  -  -  -  7161 12250 2330 6740 1881  -  -  -  23794  27746  28481  30362  34161  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  -  -  -  -  19903  5520  -  7161 12250 2330 6740  -  Thermal-electric Plants (6) (excluding gas turbines) - Burrard - Hat Creek - Eost Kootenay  •  Sub t o t a l Gas Turbines (7) Total Firm Energy C a p a b i l i t y  f o r e c a s t E l e c t r i c Energy Demand Firm Energy Margin  Notes:  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)  -  -  -  -  -  -  -  . -  -  -  -  -  -  5520 23500 -  _  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  6231  11265  15972  18144  23570  29020  34606  40362  45160  1117  1226  1226  1476  1476  1476  1805  2462  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  26540  30540 34492  35477  37358  41157  45219  49906  55290  60289  65107  71220  76670  82256  88012 92875  23400  26200  29200  32600  36500  40100  44200  48700  53300  58300  63100  68600  74S00  80200  86200  4340  5292  2877  2007  2620  3140  858  1057  1019  1206  1990  1989  2170  2056  1812  92600 275  C i t y o f Rcvclstoko Integrated i n 1977/78 adding 56 Cwh o f hydroelectric energy. North Coast area integrated i n 1978/79 adding 3S Cwh o f hydroelectric and 250 Gwh o f gas turbine energy. Kootenay Diversion added i n 1984/85 increasing Mica by 682 Cwh and Rcvclstoko by 526 Cwh and docrcasing Kootenay Canal by 333 Cwh, McGregor Diversion added i n 1985/86 increasing CM. Shrum by 2207 Cwh and S i t e One by S43 Gwh. Hydroelectric energy based on average annual energy a v a i l a b l e during c r i t i c a l period. Thermal-electric energy excluding gas turbine energy based on annual capacity factors allowing f o r maintenance and forced outages. Gas turbine energy based on averago requirement during c r i t i c a l period.  Prom:  "Alternatives from 1975-1990", B.C. Hydro, 1975.  Table 8: 0~\  Energy capability balance under 5% and 10% reductions i n hydroelectric  firm energy c a p a b i l i t y  (in millions of kwh). F i s c a l Year  75/76  76/77  77/78  78/79  79/80  80/81  81/82  82/83  83/84  84/85  85/86  86/87  87/88  88/89  89/90  90/91  A  Hydroelectric firm energy c a p a b i l i t y  19903  23794  27746  28481  30362  34161  37894  41213  41235  41527  44173  44860  44860  44860  44860  44925  B  Thermal F.E.C.  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  5520  6231  11265  15972  18144  23570  29020  34606  40362  45160  C  Gas turbines F.E.C.  1117  1226  1226  1476  1476  1476  1805  2462  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  2790  D  Total firm energy capability  26540  30540  34492  35477  37358  41157  45219  49906  55290  60289  65107  71220  76670  82256  88012  92875  E  Forecast e l e c t r i c enfergy demand  23400  26200  29200  32600  36500  40100  44200  43700  53300  58300  63100  68600  74500  80200  86200  92600  F  Firm energy margin (now)  3140  4340  5292  2877  858  1057  1019  1206  1990  1989  2007  2620  2170  2056  1812  275  G  F.E.M. at -5% in Hydro F.E.C.  2145  3151  3905  1453  -660  -651  -875  -854  -71  -87  -201  . +377  -73  -187  -431  -1971  H  F.E.M. at -10% in Hydro F.E.C.  1150  1961  2518  29  -2178  -2359  -2770  -2915  -2133  -2163  -2410  -1866  -2316  -2430  -2674  -4217  I  F /E %  13.4  16.5  18.1  8.8  2.3  2.6  2.2  2.4  3.7  3.4  3.1  3.8  2.9  2.5  2.1  2.9  K  G / E % (-5%)  9.1  12.0  13.3  4.4  -1.8  -1.6  -1.9  -1.7  -0.1  -0.1  -0.3  +0.5  -0.09  -0.2  -0.5  -2.1  L  H / E % (-10%)  4.9  7.4  8.6  0.08  -5.9  -5.8  -6.2  -5.9  -4.0  -3.7  -3.S  -2.7  -3.1  -3.0  -3.1  -4.5  *  T a b l e 8 shows t h e r e s u l t s  of prolonged droughts  with  s t r e a m f l o w s o f 1 . 5 a n d 1.9 t i m e s t h e i r s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s . A t 5% t h e f i r m e n e r g y m a r g i n becomes n e g a t i v e a f t e r and s t a y s m a r g i n a l l y s o up t o 1990.  A t 10% t h e m a r g i n  becomes n e g a t i v e a f t e r 1979, b u t i t s m a g n i t u d e exceeds  that of the p o s i t i v e  1979 also  generally  margin.  The e n e r g y s h o r t f a l l s a r e a l s o shown a s p e r c e n t a g e s o f A t t h e 5% l e v e l demand w i l l h a v e t o be  p r o j e c t e d demands.  c u t b e t w e e n 0.09 a n d 2 . 1 % b u t a t t h e 1 0 % l e v e l  this  i n c r e a s e s f r o m 2.7% t o 6.2%. T h e s e s h o r t a g e s w o u l d u n d o u b t e d l y l e a d t o demand c u r t a i l m e n t and brown o u t s beyond shortages r e p r e s e n t l o s t revenue  1980.  To B.C. H y d r o t h e s e  i n t h e range  o f $1.4 t o  $84 m i l l i o n p e r annum i n 1976 d o l l a r s a t 20 p e r kwh. Hydro's  ability  t o p a y o f f d e b t s w o u l d be r e d u c e d a n d t h i s  might l e a d t o f u r t h e r s h o r t term borrowing.  This i n turn  w o u l d be r e f l e c t e d  i n h i g h e r charges t o t h e consumer i n  subsequent  The i m p a c t on t h e B.C. economy w o u l d  years.  more w i d e r a n g i n g .  Resource  be  e x t r a c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g  i n d u s t r i e s may be f o r c e d t o c l o s e down f o r s u b s t a n t i a l periods of time.  Unemployment w o u l d r e s u l t a n d p r o v i n c i a l  e a r n i n g s a n d p u b l i c s p e n d i n g power w o u l d  be a f f e c t e d .  The a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s t o t h e hydroelectric  s y s t e m shows t h a t a r e t u r n o f some o f t h e d r y  p e r i o d s t h a t p e r s i s t e d f o r 5 t o 20 y e a r s i n n o r t h w e s t e r n A m e r i c a i n t h e 1 8 t h and 1 9 t h c e n t u r i e s w o u l d  seriously  96 a f f e c t h y d r o e l e c t r i c output.  These l o s s e s c o u l d not  he  compensated f o r by c u r r e n t l y planned t h e r m a l c a p a c i t y , f o r the n e x t 15 y e a r s c u t b a c k s i n demand up t o 6% foreseen.  Absence of d e s i g n p l a n s beyond 1990  the a n a l y s i s t o be Two  and  are  does not  allow  extended.  n o t e s of c a u t i o n , f i r s t l y , the demand p r o j e c t i o n s  are based on the u n u s u a l "normal c l i m a t i c p e r i o d " ,  and  although e l e c t r i c i t y i s l e s s s e n s i t i v e to c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y than f u e l s e x t e n s i v e l y used i n s p a c e - h e a t i n g , demand l e v e l s might be m a r g i n a l l y d i f f e r e n t . p o s t draw-down p r o d u c t i o n  S e c o n d l y , c a l c u l a t i o n s of  were not u n d e r t a k e n , but the Peace  R i v e r r e s e r v o i r s would r e a c h t h i s p o i n t i n 2-J- - 3 y e a r s the Columbia r e s e r v o i r s i n 21 months.  T h i s assumption tends  t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e the p r o b a b l e p r o d u c t i o n e l e c t r i c i t y generation  Uncertainty No  of R i s k  c o u l d be c a r r i e d out t o reduce  Prom the s t a t e d o b j e c t i v e t o m a i n t a i n  that uninterrupted  Hydro, 1975)  power s u p p l y  i s i m p o r t a n t t o the a u t h o r i t y .  i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s i s an e x p r e s s i o n  supply  planning procedure.  s e c u r i t y and  a  i t can be deduced  f a c t t h a t the a u t h o r i t y has no customers on  generation  average.  Valuation  p o s i t i v e energy margin (B.C.  The  l o s s e s i n hydro-  by a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5$ of d e s i g n  s p e c i f i c analyses  the u n c e r t a i n t y .  and  The  an  of f a i t h i n i t s authority highly  t h i s forms grounds t o s p e c u l a t e  values that i t  97 would  be p r e p a r e d  security. further  However  E.  Formulation  The  system  cation  of the lead  planning  which  preliminary climatic system  should  be s u b j e c t  planning  ignores  of  investigation into  that  these  strategy be  Operational  illustrated  significant  impact  climatic  past.  the possible  that  The  range of  on t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c of c r i t i c a l  aberrations  must  failure  be p a r t  of the  and t h e f o l l o w i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e a c t i o n s  considered.  Plans  Increase  the l i v e  maximum  events.  safe  This  storage levels  will  increased  of  curtailment  demand  utilisation. extension  This  of lead  lead  and Revelstoke t o maximum  t h e draw-down time  time.  might Further  demand  up t o  flood  period,  f o r the implementation  and thermal r e s e r v e  option  by i n i t i a t i n g  at Mica  relative  extend  providing  bought  and t h e i d e n t i f i -  have  the consequences climatic  us with the  i n the recent  v a r i a t i o n s and t h e i r  might  the  institution  occurred  that  has provided  of uncertainty  base  have  revealed  such  -  area  f o r continued  of Alternatives  and e x p l o r a t i o n  anomalies  that  whole  identification  context  present  are  this  price  studies.  societal  the  t o pay a high  only time  capacity  provide  a  can also  curtailment  marginal be  at' t h e e n d o f  98 the  first  or the beginning  serious  drought.  further  away.  earlier  and the p o s s i b l e  options  provide  Contingency  of the second  T h i s would  Given  demand  methods,  the sensitivity  only  a partial  target  users  Target  commercial  conditions indicate  under which  the c r i t i c a l  Athabasca  drought  beginning  reservoir  i s based  Conditions  and q u a n t i t i e s  Creation of  and P o l i c y  5$ a n d  would  The  start  should  and number  that  of  i n t h e Lake  start  no l a t e r  utilisation  than  reserve w i l l used  procedures.  on t h e p o l i c y  should  of a thermal  10$ o f p r e s e n t  capability.•  or  adjustment  be c r e a t e d . be  specified.  Adjustments  and maintenance  between  electric  a thermal  class  year.  reserve capacity  that  industrial  consumed.  levels  c u r t a i l m e n t would  of  or voluntary  as a u n i f i e d  implementation  assumption  Criteria  either  I t i s expected  contingency plan  Methods  c o u l d be r e s i d e n t i a l ,  o f t h e second  thermal  specifying  rationing  according to quantities  i n drought.  Develop  users  consumers,  differentiated  Design  both  solution.  and c o n d i t i o n s .  restraint.  This  analyses discussed  curtailment procedures,  c o u l d be p r i c i n g ,  the  levels  d u r a t i o n o f the drought  curtailment  years  draw-down  of a  Plans  Develop  or  push  year  reserve  forecasted  The r e s e r v e would  have  capacity  firm  hydro-  to increase  99  over time i n p r o p o r t i o n energy i n order and  1.9  an  c u r t a i l the 2% and the  6%,  below present  energy c o n s e r v a t i o n forecasted  i n order  design  1.5  flows.  program aiming  demands ( H y d r o , 1975)  to  between  t o cope w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y  e l e c t r i c i t y supply  t o 6%  Revise  of the  of  design  greater  live  basis  consumption.  Exploratory  on  1864-1880.  o f f u t u r e h y d r o dams t o accommodate storage  capacity.  Only r e s e r v o i r s i n  of magnitude of W i l l i s t o n Lake might p r o v i d e  significant  This  interruptible  h y d r o e l e c t r i c f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y based  Adjust  order  on an  total anticipated electricity  c r i t i c a l period -  S.D.  prolonged droughts at  1864-1880 d r o u g h t .  Contract up  to withstand  times the  Introduce  to the f i r m h y d r o e l e c t r i c  increase  i n lead time during  the a  drought.  Actions  study  has  a t t e m p t e d t o i n d i c a t e the bounds  climatic uncertainties.  Further  e x p l o r a t i o n s focus  of on  n a r r o w i n g t h e s e bounds of u n c e r t a i n t y , u l t i m a t e l y s t r i v i n g t o w a r d s an u n d e r s t a n d i n g  and  an a b i l i t y  to p r e d i c t  climatic  behaviour. 1.  Uncertainty -  of C l i m a t i c System  A s e r i e s of  joint  g o v e r n m e n t a l , and proposed.  Structure  exploratory actions  with  academic i n s t i t u t i o n s  are  Hydro would p r o v i d e  funding  for  100  fundamental provide ation  staff,  with  This  with  the agency  t o be a b r e a s t  climatic  research  other  and would  the development  of B r i t i s h  of  Peace  of a  Columbia.  u t i l i t i e s might  of  enable i t  climatic  Joint  also  format.  be  funding considered.  Variance of the streamflow  and Columbia  tree-rings  or other  cores  i n river  about  floods.  rivers,  "proxy"  beds  might  records i n b y means  methods.  improve  Sediment  knowledge  record  redefinition  of the c r i t i c a l period,  maximum  annual  and t h e l o n g  streamflow.  flows  sequence  of high  times  will  ation  relative  demand  also  The  longer  for  probability  droughts  term  more  t o the speed  might records  the basis  that  have  t o be  inform-  adaptive  capacity  implemented.  can provide  analysis of  of a  and the l e a d  detailed  and r e s e r v e  and f l o o d s .  mean  and low f l o w s  provide  curtailment  utilisation  t o form  of  The extended  The  -  inform-  permit  The e x t e n s i o n the  -  f a c i l i t i e s and exchange or report  2. U n c e r t a i n t y -  would  i n seminar  encourage  history  and t h e a g e n c i e s  Hydro  will  relevant to  research  a  sounder  recurrence  basis of  101  Uncertainty The  of Impact  impact of c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y on the energy  c a p a b i l i t y should  -  be t e s t e d w i t h B.C. Hydro's  unpublished  i n f o r m a t i o n about f o r e c a s t e d demand  and  generation.  thermal  Upon completing  the extension  o f the i n s t r u m e n t a l  r e c o r d , the c r i t i c a l p e r i o d should be r e d e f i n e d , new maximum and minimum o p e r a t i n g  levels  s p e c i f i e d , and new f i r m energy c a p a b i l i t y  balances  drawn up, and the c o n s t r u c t i o n program r e v i s e d . The  f e a s i b i l i t y of i n s t a l l i n g a d d i t i o n a l  generators,  i n the l i g h t o f h i g h e r long term means  and  v a r i a n c e should be examined.  The  extended temperature s e r i e s should form the  b a s i s of demand s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s e s , which w i l l be i n t e g r a t e d i n the new energy c a p a b i l i t y balance. U n c e r t a i n t y of R i s k V a l u a t i o n -  An assessment of r i s k s from c e r t a i n c l i m a t i c s c e n a r i o s o c c u r r i n g and the c o s t s of a v o i d i n g these r i s k s should be made on the b a s i s of the improved data base.  T h i s should be s u b j e c t to  p o l i t i c a l and p u b l i c r e a c t i o n t o o b t a i n an impression  of the p r i c e people are w i l l i n g t o pay  f o r a climate-proof  e l e c t r i c i t y system.  102 Monitoring  Plans  T h i s i s c u r r e n t l y t h e most d e v e l o p e d  component w i t h  r e s p e c t t o the h y d r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s y s t e m of the Upper Columbia B a s i n . 38 snow c o u r s e cover  A n e t w o r k o f 28 s t r e a m f l o w s t a t i o n s and  t h e a r e a and  gauges,  9 meteorological stations  information i s constantly fed  into  t h e U.B.C. f l o w m o d e l p r e d i c t i n g d a i l y r u n o f f f o r p e r i o d s o f up  t o one. y e a r .  This m o n i t o r i n g program should  be  continued. I n a d d i t i o n , the a u t h o r i t y should keep a b r e a s t knowledge about the g l o b a l c l i m a t e . taken through  This i s best  c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h g o v e r n m e n t a l and  institutions. v a r i a b i l i t y and temperature  As  outlined earlier,  g l o b a l temperatures  Evaluation  The  a c t i o n s suggested  e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n and  shortages  of  oceanic  a b o v e a r e a mere l i s t i n g ;  them a r e m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e a l t h o u g h most a r e  are probably  academic  the extent and  under-  t r e n d s w o u l d be p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t .  P..  The  of  planned  some o f  not.  reserve  capacities  t h e most e f f e c t i v e means o f p r o v i d i n g power  i n a prolonged  only a marginal p o s i t i v e  drought.  Increased  impact.  I f the past  live  storage  i s the  best  b a s i s f o r p l a n n i n g the f u t u r e c l e a r l y the e x t e n s i o n of f l o w r e c o r d s i n t h e P e a c e and undertaken  immediately.  An  Columbia basins should  e v a l u a t i o n i n terms of  has  stream  be  resource  103  availability select  the  most  commitment resources  G-.  is  be  Development  of  the  basis  to  new  review,  be  with  the  operational  consideration more  finely  first  action Hater  with  of  and  of  tuned  and  more  is  plans  to  efficient  are  the  identified  is  to  biased  anticipated  towards  be  the  improves,  reviewed  uncertainty,  energy  with  contingency  prediction  of  or  reconstruct  and  can  package  expected  package  moving  If  bounds  and  package  basis  packages  actions  narrower  the  time  this  reducing  operational  contingency  the  annual  attempts  climatology.  to  undertaken.  Clearly  package  commitment  towards  limited  commitment  commitment  exploratory  sphere  a  an  the  comprise  being  significantly of  undertaken  Package  implemented. on  be  to  project  evaluation  probably  The  oriented  predictive the  time.  actions  evaluation  make u p  history.  more  actions  The  should  Commitment  the  and  exploratory  climatic to  of  of this  an  a  information  over  set  Within such  uncertainties.  towards  suitable  formulated  relevant  effectiveness  package.  subject  change  cost  prevented  Upon would  and  system  in and  a  will  result.  The  concluding  recommended presently  commitment  without  recommended  chapter  the  package  of  this  thesis  package  that  can. be  benefit  suggests  of the  a  thorough  immediate  includes  a  justified evaluation. development  The and  implementation  of  contracting  power  of  an  industrial  customers,  records  the  of  on  research.  Peace  energy on  an  the and  conservation interruptible  immediate Columbia  program, basis  extension  Rivers  and  to  the new  major  of  streamflow  the  monitoring  105  Chapter  SUMMARY AND  This strategy on  study  has attempted  i n response  Five  CONCLUSIONS  to formulate  t o the impacts  the hydroelectric generating  B.C.  system  i n general  particular. developed  I t i s suggested  has a wide  impacted  by c l i m a t i c  in  planning  other  from  a rapidly  of  these  of  the case  Use  The the  to other  derive  scientific will  process  systems  and has a l s o  which  observations  from  the Natural  application  natural sciences  of data  which are  some  relevance  a substantial  discipline.  precede  input  Elaboration  the conclusions  Sciences from  to planning  limited.  developing problems  The s c i e n t i f i c  reluctant to provide  because  the planning  Dams i n  study.  unnecessarily been  that  variability  of the integrated  and R e v e l s t o k e  variability  processes  planning  of climatic  capability  application  developing  general  of Data  and M i c a  a  information  f i n d i n g s and c o n c l u s i o n s  were  disciplines i n  has  been  community  has o f t e n  f o r decision-making often  subject to  106 qualifications  which  in  for certainty.  their  quest  becoming a  new  The of  an  a  term  accepted  common g r o u n d  past  use  random  of 40  year  process  sciences, sectors update  should  of  the  the  variable  snapshot planning of  the  which evolve  of  the  The  uncertainties  i n systems  of  instance, in  related ment  and  change  climatic to  and  of  environmental  seem p r i m e  areas  of  scientific  communities  history  In the  outside viable that  attempts  water  the  up.  to  use  the  for  long of  the  a r t " i n science,  input'for  the  any  natural  to  continually  from  i t s major  e x p l o r a t i o n s of  the  agency's  option. B.C.  In  Hydro  to foster  i n B.C.  an  immediate this  nuclear  on A r c t i c  decision  study,  monitors  for  research  understanding  Planning  organizing similar and  opened  recognition  i n order  quality,  impacts  process,  linkages with relevant  joint  variability  fisheries,  compared  climatic  of  has  u n c e r t a i n t y stemming  a  ignore  uncertainty i s  be  purposes.  of  to  decision-making  may  "state  i t i s recommended  climatic  historic  seems  tended  understanding  community  funding  control  that  i n the  ongoing  scientific  bounds  have  d e r i v e s a major  assumptions.  sphere  Now  f o r mutual  development  planning  makers  geophysical data  hydroelectric  dynamic  decision  activities  energy  ecosystems  interaction makers.  of  developwould between  107  Planning  for Climatic  This  study  variability but  i n the  i n other  water  has  be  on  the  The  changing  world  consequences  is a  the  matter  potential  Nations  conference  Similar  climatic  regime.  North  failure.  The  higher  spending In  America direct  fuel  power a  relatively  longer mild  purposes.  Cheap  of  forty  climatic  years  prior  death  have  be of  school  and  regime  of  such  of  the  millions  shifting  for a  a  United  as  $8  has  fuels  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n has  to  planning  relatively this  winter  without  closures,  estimated  perspective,  fossil  of  this  accommodated  been $3  regions  development  assumption  cannot  1970,  change.  i n energy  an  regime  formidable.  f o r hundreds  call  areas  to  are  and  processes  i n these  of v a r i o u s  Pluctuations  climatic  availability  unusual  K i s s i n g e r to  on  between time  planning  i m p l i c a t i o n s of  impacts  bills by  and  arise  based  Eastern  the  problems  to  climatic  is largely  stable  to  Dr.  on  generation,  a l l planning  the  climatic  agricultural  similar  fortunes  life  prompted  for  increased v a r i a b i l i t y  political  has  and  of  of  of  thirty  agricultural  balance  which  planning,  basis  p r e v a i l e d i n the  planning  development,  Virtually  the  on  hydroelectricity  energy  initiated.  and  and  of  of  development  proceeded  that  concentrated field  areas  supply  should  has  Variability  in  system  unemployment  reduce  public  billion. the  stable  and  contributed  significantly  for transportation been  major  determinant  188 of the automobile The  o r i e n t e d u r b a n s t r u c t u r e t h a t has e v o l v e d .  gradual d e c l i n e i n f o s s i l f u e l s i n combination  adverse  with  c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d r a p i d l y make t h e s e  urban  s y s t e m s u n w o r k a b l e a s f o s s i l f u e l s became d i v e r t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r a l and space h e a t i n g purposes. of f o s s i l f u e l d i v e r s i o n problems, t h i s s p r i n g might see the f i r s t  As a f o r e w a r n i n g  some o b s e r v e r s b e l i e v e  g a s o l i n e s h o r t a g e as a r e s u l t  of a c l i m a t i c a l l y induced d i v e r s i o n of r e f i n i n g c a p a c i t y t o home h e a t i n g o i l d u r i n g t h e r e c e n t c o l d  spell  (Economist,  1977). The of water  same message o f s y s t e m supply.  failure  i s gained i n the area  Rationing i s already exercised i n parts of  C a l i f o r n i a a n d s e r i o u s c u r t a i l m e n t i n t h e Okanagan i s considered. These examples o f t h e consequences o f i n c r e a s e d variability  serve to i l l u s t r a t e  climatic  t h e u r g e n t need t o  i n c o r p o r a t e c l i m a t i c v a r i a b i l i t y as a f a c t o r i n t h e p l a n n i n g of energy,  a g r i c u l t u r e , water  s u p p l y and i n d e e d  urban  development.  C l i m a t i c V a r i a b i l i t y and H y d r o e l e c t r i c G e n e r a t i o n The  Capacity  o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s s t u d y have been: 1.  To a s s e s s t h e i m p a c t  of c l i m a t i c  variability  on t h e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y o f t h e M i c a and R e v e l s t o k e Dams p r o j e c t s and o t h e r  components  109 of  B.C.  Hydro's  integrated  power  generation  system. 2.  To  develop  a  variability generation A  survey  considerable climatic future  of  of  years  usual by  but  human  agricultural, virtual  available To to  be  variable  literature  be  and  a)  of  be  once  climatic  system.  firstly,  that  characterised and  again  supply  of  However, the by  thirty  the  that  a  more  modified  world.  planners  involved  that  preceding planning  1970. approach  to: i d e n t i f y i n g and  variance,  managing  (uncertainty  impact  and  of  four system,  risk  evaluation); b)  foster  i n t e r a c t i o n between  managers  of  in  operated  beyond  the  to  an  development  problems  the  the  possibly  govern  that of  and  secondly,  most  uncertainties  . structure,  change,  climatic period  these  have  capable  structure  c l i m a t i c knowledge  to  would  the  climatic  that  water  "normal"  responsive  developed  about  c l i m a t i c regime,  suggested  energy  the  revealed  stability  will  isolation for  were  and  activities,  The  in  1970  hydroelectric  literature  global' c l i m a t i c t.o a g r e e  climatic  Columbia.  the  warmth  of  of  to  in British  causes  seemed  more  context  change exists  response  the  p r i o r to  unprecedented  the  planning  climatic  system,  climatologists forty  in  uncertainty  states  planning  the  climatologists  hydroelectric  system;  and  c)  be  responsive  commitment  these  under  facilities,  i n order  The  control  climatic  influence immune this the  guaranteed  grounds  four The  of  an  the  many l i f e  approaches planning  was  model  other  support  a l l assumed  hand,  has  systems  by  human  planning  model  the  i s , as  yet, For  components  of  f o l l o w i n g phases:  Identification  Uncertainty  Formulation  of  Alternatives  Development  of  a  process  to  move  "forward  and  Uncertainty  Commitment  i n which  the  Package  analyst  is  expected  backward". provides  an  inadequacy  variability. of  or  controlling  using  of  management  a  intervention.  Exploration  i s the  total  uncertainties.  and  of  study  processes  Recognition  cyclical  the  but  recognises  is a  climatic  i t s objective  developed.  It  problem  meet  Identification  case  generating  p r e s e n t i n g the  steering  iterative  System  The  to  of  the  power s u p p l i e s .  system  on  Problem  The  operation  reviewed,  the  to-conscious  reason  ongoing  four planning/decision-making  system,  over  Hydro's  make d e c i s i o n s a b o u t  and  u n c e r t a i n t y were  partial  B.C.  development  of On  to  to  the  application  of  Increased Mica  and  B.C.  of  Hydro's  variability  Revelstoke  this  model.  response will  Dams,  to  affect  and  the  111 c o n s t r u c t i o n and management o f o t h e r c o m p o n e n t s o f t h e i n t e g r a t e d g e n e r a t i o n system.  A l l generation planning i s  p r e s e n t l y p r e d i c a t e d on a f o r t y y e a r s t r e a m f l o w r e c o r d (1928-1968). based  Minimum h y d r o e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i s  on t h e c r i t i c a l  (1941-1946),  p e r i o d i n the  a r e l a t i v e l y d r y e p i s o d e when s t r e a m f l o w  a p p r o x i m a t e l y 10$ b e l o w " n o r m a l " . which would would  instrumental record  exceed  climatic  conditions  t h i s e v e n t i n m a g n i t u d e and d u r a t i o n  c o n s t i t u t e an u n p l a n n e d  draw-down l e v e l s w o u l d output would  Any  was  s i t u a t i o n i n which  be r e a c h e d and a n n u a l  hydroelectric  become s o l e l y d e p e n d e n t on a n n u a l  An a n a l y s i s o f p r e c i p i t a t i o n and  reservoir  streamflow.  temperature  sensitive  c h r o n o l o g i e s of t r e e - r i n g i n d i c e s at B a n f f , J a s p e r , W i l l i a m s L a k e and L a k e A t h a b a s c a deviation and  standard  o f t h e t r e e - r i n g i n d i c e s were r e s p e c t i v e l y  lower  s m a l l e r f o r f o r t y y e a r s i n t h e 1900's t h a n f o r t h e  entire series. and  i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e mean and  this  Some c h r o n o l o g i e s d a t e d b a c k t o 1700  A.D.  suggests t h a t the i n s t r u m e n t a l r e c o r d r e p r e s e n t s a  r e l a t i v e l y dry period with l i t t l e  variability,  a conclusion  t h a t i s s u p p o r t e d by o t h e r s o u r c e s o f l i t e r a t u r e .  There i s  a l s o evidence o f . a drought  three  t w i c e t h e m a g n i t u d e and  times the d u r a t i o n of the c r i t i c a l s t r u c k the Rocky Mountains likelihood  b e t w e e n 1864  and  1880.  have The  o f t h i s e v e n t has p o s s i b l y b e e n o v e r e s t i m a t e d ,  because the s t a t i s t i c a l determined  p e r i o d t h a t might  t e c h n i q u e s used have not  the s i g n i f i c a n c e  adequately  o f the c o r r e l a t i o n between Lake  1'12  Athabasca  levels  Developing  and C o l u m b i a  streamflow.  a s c e n a r i o i n which a l l h y d r o e l e c t r i c  p l a n t s w o u l d be s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a f f e c t e d Lake A t h a b a s c a electricity average cuts  drought,  average  output would f a l l  design flow.  streamflow  and  approximately  T h i s would r e s u l t  so c a l l e d average  19% below t h e  i n average  o f between 2% and 6% o f t h e f o r e c a s t e d demand  (B.C.  Hydro,  1975).  (based  20 p e r kwh) i n r e v e n u e w i t h more s e v e r e t h e B.C. economy s u c h as l a y o f f s , e a r n i n g s and p u b l i c considering  that  reservoirs  annual loads  T h e s e l o s s e s w o u l d c o s t B.C. H y d r o up  t o a maximum o f $84 m i l l i o n p e r annum  all  by t h i s  spending.  implications f o r  reduced  provincial  This picture  these f i g u r e s  i s conservative,  are averages,  r e a c h draw-down l e v e l s  on 1976 $ a t  and t h a t  once  ( a f t e r a maximum o f  3 y e a r s ) , power p r o d u c t i o n may be c u t e v e n f u r t h e r i n extremely  dry years.  On t h e p o s i t i v e h i g h e r average precipitation  side  streamflows  the t r e e - r i n g  suggest  w i t h many p e r i o d s o f h i g h  and s t r e a m f l o w  levels  the d e s i g n f l o w o f the Columbia up  indicators  approximately  persisting  25% above  f o r periods of  to ten years. The  sensitivity  to c l i m a t i c  o f the h y d r o e l e c t r i c  variability  of v a r i a b i l i t y  system  i s c o n s i d e r a b l e once t h e s t a b i l i t y  of t h e f o r t y y e a r s t r e a m f l o w range  generating  record i s substituted  suggested  with a  by t h e t r e e - r i n g r e c o r d s .  11-3  A number o f p o l i c y o p t i o n s h a v e b e e n they f a l l  into s i x categories:  p l a n s , d e s i g n and  formulated;  operational plans,  p o l i c y adjustments,  contingency  e x p l o r a t i o n s of  u n c e r t a i n t y o f s y s t e m s t r u c t u r e , v a r i a n c e and  impact,  and  monitoring plans. An  adequate e v a l u a t i o n of these  w i t h i n the time  options proved  c o n s t r a i n t s of t h i s study, but  commitment p a c k a g e c a n n e v e r t h e l e s s be  the  impossible following  recommended.  E x p l o r a t i o n s of U n c e r t a i n t y The  streamflow  records of the Columbia  Peace R i v e r B a s i n s of t r e e - r i n g  s h o u l d be  and  e x t e n d e d by means  analysis.  Climatic research into h i s t o r i c v a r i a b i l i t y B.C.  s h o u l d be  sponsored  and  o t h e r s s h o u l d be m o n i t o r e d  the programs  in  of  carefully.  P o l i c y Adjustments An  energy c o n s e r v a t i o n program should  developed  and  implemented.  be  I t s h o u l d aim 1980,  to  c u r t a i l f o r e c a s t e d demand by  6$ by  in  order to maintain a p o s i t i v e  energy margin  even u n d e r the Lake A t h a b a s c a d r o u g h t s c e n a r i o . Puture  power c o n t r a c t s w i t h m a j o r  u s e r s s h o u l d be  industrial  on an i n t e r r u p t i b l e b a s i s .  All Should  these  actions  the energy  hydroelectric continue basis. which  Upon  sold  should  revised  following  being  be r e d r a w n ,  energy  options  demand  of  Assess costs a)  on a n  can  interruptible  based  "new"  projections.  this  of  records, capability  critical time  the  f o r and t h e f e a s i b i l i t y  and  t o be  At that  period  open:  Uncertainty  of:  installing  additional generating  capitalise  on h i g h  streamflow  t h e c r e a t i o n and m a i n t e n a n c e power  c)  years,  streamflow  on a  reversible.  to a surplus  the energy  the need  to b)  utilities  and  two y e a r s ,  are l i k e l y  Explorations  lead  i n good  the extended  to take  cheap  program  produced  to other  completing  i s estimated  balance and  conservation  energy  t o be  are r e l a t i v e l y  sequences  of a  thermal  increasing the l i v e  storage  reserve;  significantly in  equipment  both  existing  and f u t u r e h y d r o e l e c t r i c  systems. Poster  public  proposals generating  These  studies  actions.  should  and p o l i t i c a l  for a  climate  debate  proof  about  electricity  system.  form  a firm- basis  to consider  further  Hydro's to  adjust  is  recorded.  certainly  present response  the  be  critical The  setting  associated  The  strategy  the  present climatic  system in  to  spite  a of  period  outlined  point  climatic  when  o f new  output  of  power  the  is  sequence  almost shortages.  i s designed  stability  variability.  drought  r e c o r d s would  thesis  sensitivity  variability  a worse  with widespread  in this  where  climatic  to  to  reduce  hydroelectric can  be  guaranteed  116  BIBLIOGRAPHY B a i n , S.E., C.L. Mateer, and W.P.J. Evans, (1976). " M e t e o r o l o g i c a l and Ozone Data f o r P r o j e c t Sfratoprobe," Atmosphere, V o l . (14) 3. B. C. Energy, Commission, (1976). B r i t i s h Columbia's Outlook 1976-1991, V o l . 1, BCEC. 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" T h e N a t u r a l B r e a k d o w n o f t h e Present I n t e r g l a c i a l and i t s P o s s i b l e I n t e r v e n t i o n by Human A c t i v i t i e s , " Q u a r t e r n a r y R e s e a r c h , V o l . 2,  p p . 436-445.  N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s , . (1975). Understanding Climatic C h a n g e , A P r o g r a m f o r A c t i o n , NAS, W a s h i n g t o n , D.C. O l i v e r , John E., John Wiley.  (1973).  C l i m a t e a n d Man's  Environment,  P a r k e r , M . L . a n d W.E.S. H e n o c h , (1971). "The Use o f Engelmann Spruce Latewood D e n s i t y f o r D e n d r o c h r o n o l o g i c a l Purposes," C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f P o r e s t R e s e a r c h , V o l . 1, N o . 2, 1971. Raiffa, on  H. , (19.68.). _ D e c i s i o n A n a l y s i s , I n t r o d u c t o r y L e c t u r e s C h o i c e s Under U n c e r t a i n t y , A d d i s o n Wesley, 1968.  S c h n e i d e r , S t e p h e n H.-, P r e s s , New Y o r k . Science  Council  (1976).  o f Canada,  Change, P r o c e e d i n g s of Canada.  T h e G-enesis  (1975).  of Toronto  Living  S t r a t e g y , Plenum  with  Workshop,  Climatic  Science  Council  S m i t h , J . H . G . a n d J'. W o r r a l , . .(1970).. Tree-ring Analysis w i t h s p e c i a l r e f e r e n c e t o N o r t h w e s t A m e r i c a , UBC F a c u l t y o f F o r e s t r y , B u l l e t i n N o . 7. S t o c k t o n , C.W. a n d H.C. F r i t t s , (1971). A n E m p i r i c a l R e c o n s t r u c t i o n of. W a t e r L e v e l s f o r L a k e A t h a b a s c a T"1810-1967J b y A n a l y s i s o f T r e e - r i n g s , T h e P e a c e Athabasca Project. Ward,  Barbara, Stewart.  (1976).  T h e Home  o f Man, M a c l e l l a n d a n d  W i l l e t , H u r d C , (1975). "Do R e c e n t C l i m a t i c T r e n d s P o r t e n d an Imminent I c e Age,". A t m o s p h e r i c Q u a l i t y and C l i m a t i c C h a n g e , E d . R. K o p e c . UNG S t u d i e s i n . G e o g r a p h y . n o . 9. Y o r q u e , R a l f , (1976). E c o l o g i c a l and R e s i l i e n c e F a c t o r s f o r Management, M a n a g i n g t h e Unknown: Methodologies f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l Impact Assessment, Second Workshop R e p o r t PR 4, I n s t i t u t e o f A n i m a l R e s o u r c e E c o l o g y , U B C . UBC,  (1977).  P e r s o n a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n s w i t h D r . M. C h u r c h ( G e o g r a p h y ) , D r . R . E . K u c e r a ( G e o l o g y ) , D r . J.H.G.  Smith  APPENDIX ONE  -  : DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL INFORMATION  Reconstructed  Climate,  Reconstructed  Levels,  Western North Lake  Athabasca  America  TABLE 7:  TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY STATIONS  TABLE 8:  R E L A T I V E DEPARTURES FOR  From:  Tree-ring Evidence f o r C l i m a t i c Changes i n W e s t e r n N o r t h F r i t t s , 1965.  26 STATIONS  America,  121  1:  Table  Tree-ring  chronologies presented i n table Max. No. of Trees  Name  No.  8  Period Used  V  1  Durango,  2  Big  3  Casas Grandes,  4  Southern  5  C l o u d c r o f t , N. Mex.  6  S. C a l i f . ,  7 8 9  Mexico  5  1641-1940  15  1646-1945  6  1526-1960  277  1416-1950  8  1516-1960  60  1386-1950  U p p e r R i o Grande, N. Mex.  11  911-1930  San  12  1351-1930  23  576-1960  Bend, T e x . Mexico  Arizona B i g Cone  Spruce  Bernardino Mts., C a l i f .  .Flagstaff,  Ariz.  10  N a v a j o N a t l . Monument,  Ariz.  5  701-1955  11  Mesa V e r d e N a t l . P a r k ,  Colo.  12  736-1945  12  White Mts., C a l i f .  10  801-1950  13  Arkansas River,  16  1431-1950  14  South P l a t t e R i v e r ,  15  1426-1940  15  N.E.  California  5  1486-1930  16  S.E.  Oregon  15  1456-1930  17  Snake R i v e r ,  20  1286-1950  18  U p p e r M i s s o u r i DP, Mont.  52  1306-1950  19  Columbia R i v e r ,  29  1651-1940  20  Banff,  Canada  33  1461-1950  21  Praser  River,  41  1421-1940  22  E.  14  1356-1940  23  Nine M i l e  18  1201-1945  24  North P l a t t e River,  6  1336-1945  25  U p p e r M i s s o u r i DP, Mont.  21  981-1950  26  Jasper,  8  1541-1945  Central  Colo. Colo.  Idaho Wash.  Canada  California Canyon,  Canada -  Utah Colo.  T.int.K  » . — K i l u t i r t lOryr.  departures  al 6-yr. interval!  STATION  C\J  for  !6 tree-i  ll.'l - U K : j n.u ttt.A •III  I  11.  (Lie. 'ii.\ I  -11.  --ll.nl 0. 55 II. A 7 o ii o.ni  MO  - l l 44 -1.11  000- 71X1 701- 710 7 i » - 71A "II- 720 716- 725 721- 7.'*) 728- 735 331- 740 715- 715 741 - 750 7)4- 715 7J1- 760 754- 711 761- 7711 7C6- 775 771- 780 77*- 7»1 781- 790 7MJ-- 795 7(11- N O 760- WU  -  0.07 -0.13 -n.il 0.11 asv a 72 - a ji -0.33 0.02 -0.11  a 23 am  -0.5.1 -0.4I -0.2J -0.IW -0.44  -0.54 -1.31 -1.49 - 1 . 24 -1.09 - a 7; -0.117 -0.53 0.27 1.11  - 0 24 -0.40 -0.11 -a « -0.51 -0.49 0 10 0 45 a 12 0.10  Oil -0.42 -0.49 -0.57 -0.39 "' - I M S -0.02 - a n -0.39  -ao2 0.01 0.27 - a n -0.38 --a M - a 47 - a u -at)  -0.M -0.61 -a47 - a 22 0.01 0.88 0. It -0.27 -avo -ao3  0.54 0.SS l.M a 22 -1.04 -1.31 -1.19 -0.96 -o.»< - a n  1.28 a 7ii a 10 -0.27 -a « - a 67 - a n -0.25 ft 39 • 0.U  a 17 a 47 -a4i - a 58 - 0 . 17 - 0 . 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Stations  ure identified  aio ". 62 i>.54 .1.27 -0.45  -0.22 - 0 . 20 1.03 I. ill 0.11  - a ID o.o; I). 14  - a 14 a ei aw 11.28 -0.54 - 0 48 U. 24 0.76 0.31 - o . 2»  -1.03 -0.40 0.11 - a 12 -0.12 -OKI 0. 15 n 3i  a oi 0.38 0.13 0.48 0.21 -0.17 1.21 . 0.91 -0.47 -0.51  - 1 . R5 -0.76 —11 50 0.12 I. l"* II. 06 0. U -0.31 -11 W -0.118  looi-toio UXW-IU15 1011-10-9 1016-1025 1021-1010 10-1M01S 11131-1040 1016-1045  -1.41  Aul. t73 it;I-  I*  11 ( U  a i l - (i;u !  015 010 045 950 015  K4>  - II AM  CM - (99) CAO- 6.1A I  \'orth  M l - 060 9.V3- U15 toil- 070 WO- U75 971976- 985 W l - 990 9*6- IW5 frOl-IOUO 900-1005  aw - 0 51 - 0 . 48 0. H7 0. 81 - l l :i7  I  icextern  V.'9031106WliHn-  (l.ll 1.17 0 47 0.04 - a oi  MA  from  and described  HTATION  351 • WW W*- MIA Mil - .'To v * . A;A I  •57167-1- .VJl All5N4- 890 5' .ll-V-WO AW fttJl0'iUll-6- (6 15 All) ! 616- 62A20 }  chronologic!  NI'MIIKIl  -'120 . 0.30 U.21 -0.74 -0.48 - 0 . 42 - a 72 -0.60 -0.65 -1118  1101-1110 IIIU-lll] H U 1120 1116-1125 1121-1110 1126-1115 1111-1110 1110-1145 1141-1150 1140-1155  II. 47 -0.31 - 0 . 87 - O 26 -0.48 - a 55  1151-1100 1158-IIU5 11 -1170 1164-1175 lm-nso nio-iiss llHl-ll'JO 1186-1104 1191-1200 1190-1205  -C.40 28 0. 17 0 32 ai!8 0.41 r i l 25 -ain 0.91 0.81  I. 211 10  1'1  1201-1210" ' 1206-1215 j 1311-1220 U2l6-l2-'4 : 1221-1210 1226-1215 1211-1240 I23r>-1!43 I211-12M 1210-1255 I251-12S0 I2J0-I2C5 1201-1270 12116-1274 I27I-12M 1276-12H4 12SI-I20O 1286-1224 12111-13! 10 IWMUtt  ~  C.62 - a II - a 91 - a yi -0.31 o. i l o.ti 0.97 a n - a ii  - a 45 : -o.o: - a 10 - a 17 - a 76 - a oi -afo - a vv - a iv o 79  -11.52  - 0 . 57 - a JI oil —0.  Ill  II. II  0.31 0. 44 11 -0.19 - 0 . 10 - 0 II -0.04 0 II - 0 . II -0.78 0.02 0. Ul 0.11 -0.68 -0.81 -0.63 -0.52 0.20 O 67 0.17 0.31 a n -0. M -0J6 " -0.26 0 . 16  -ll  r  - 0 23 - O 13 —0. 08 - a 20 -0.08 0.11 a 12 -all - a 10  • a94 0.06 -0.00 -1.1)3 -1.26 -am -0.4J -0.S1 0.U7 -0.06 - a 08 aj7 a to -0.19 -0.03 - a 22 - a 67 -aw is -1.04 - a n  —i.  0.65 1.22 0.O4 -0.49 -0.17 0. 61 0.21 - 0 50 -0.99 -0.40 - 0 . 27 -0.11 O.f.9 1.35 1.16 -0.31 -1.43 -1.10 -1.2T -1.48 -0.9-2 -11.11  -0.41 -1.02 -0.69 - a n -0.74 - I . II -»21 0.70 • 0.81 a 75 -0.20 -0.88 -0.61 -a u -0.28 0.26 0.141 -a i i ao» -aoi -0.83 - a ss - a si -l.M  -i.jj  -1.43 -l.M  -a  ii  0 16 I 40 ' 0 4.'. • ii lit ;  .j  0.  1  11.31)  - 0 . 42 -0.01 -0.17 - 0 . 13 -II. 01 - 0 . 22 -0.00 - 0 09 - 0 . 77 0.17  NI'MHKR  o. iw - 0 . II 0 14 0.91 i 0. 49 ; a 17 0.45 0.41 0.61 0. 16 -0.71 0 41 0.72 - 0 . 13 -0.18  0.08  .  11  11.25 | 11.07  I). Un-1  -0.21 !  - I ) . 14  !  - 0 (IN  I  o. i ; 0.1>I o. nj j  -II  • ,1,7! 0 ui; 0.26 0.62 : i). 11 ; -0.07  -I).  I  -0.3* 57  11 1.1 ;  - 0 . Ill - 0 31 0. 09  0. 67 II. 47 0. 15 - 0 . 09 0. Ill)  59  1. 61 1.62 0 92 1.00 0.91 - 0 . 10 - 0 . 51 -0.W -0.44  1  11.28  -0.55 -I). 12  -0.1] 0. 21 1. 2 ; 1.17 0.45 -0.18 -0.56 0 13 - a IM  0.81  I  o!i«  0.50 0.18 -0.3S - a 22 ll. -0.57 - a 81 -0.07 0.13 0. ll 12 - 0 . 11 0. II 1121  -0.42  - a as -0.08 n o 0.00 - a 60 -0.79 - a n -am -0.45 - a on  i  11.07 '  irj  -0.20 a ii a 18 - a 12 aw -0.21 -015 -0.16 a n ail — a os 0.16 -0.25 -0.49 -0.04 -0.02 0.20 a 25 -0.1)1 -0.2J  28 ,  - „ .2  - 0 . 42 0. 0. 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M l V.".'t  1  1  im\  l'.vt  R E C O N S T R U C T E D WATER  LEVELS  POR  LAKE  ATHABASCA  IN  PEET  A B O V E MEAN S E A  Prom:  An E m p i r i c a l  (1810-1967)  Reconstruction  of Water L e v e l s Athabasca Analysis  LEVEL  f o r Lake  (1810-1967) b y of Tree-rings.  X  e  a  r  leio  CM  1311 IS 12 1813 1314 1915 IS 15 1317 1318 1819 1320 1321 1322 1S23 1321, 1823 1526 1327 1328 1329 1330 1331 1932 15 33 1334 1335 1336 1837 1338 1339 1343 1341 1842 1343 13 44 131*5 13i46 1347 13i»3 1349 1350 1851 1352 1353 135i» 1355 IS 56 1857 1853 1859 1363 1361 1362  Moon May 21-30 July 11-20 .Sept. 21-30 631.371 687.486 682.796 633.Ml 634.140 689.061 634.795 631.400 633.572 635.432 684.015 639.191 6 8 7. 7 8 B 637.695 636.227 636.185 6e6.037 537.978 638.751 690.264 690.320 633.274 6 3 7.S95 6*7. <n 533.142 688.666 637.570 635.667 636.262 635.268 635.944 634.953 685.566 636.052 635.395 6 5 3.363 634.375 636.622 634.836 634.700 636.259 635.755 6 3 6.3 93 635.290 637.634 6 3 7.300 635.825 636.137 636.806 685.757 635.267 63b.352 63 8.017  684.587 690.644 637.243 639.714 636.609 685.474 683.956 682.113 636.155 686.096 688.919 693.187 639.681 690.333 690.029 639.182 691.721 692.183 693.551 693.771 692.771 693.346 691.769 691.727 691.664 691.206 690.592 6 3 3.434 639.652 687.499 657.373 633.368 683.747 635.885 637.540 684.524 684.940 687.412 636.659 687.173 687.464 638.312 633.6Q5 690.431 639.064 639.483 685.389 683.471 688.458 638.927 683.766 639.507 690.375  685.257 689.678 682.038 669.363 684.401 686.835 684.011 680.531 683.834 684.753 685.506 689.274 684.657 686.347 685.897 684.631 687.558 687.071 687.653 688.610 687.638 68 6.318 656.90 9 6«6.797 68 6.775 687.178 686.328 684.P.32 685.811 684.314 685.946 685.954 685.629 684.834 685.973 682.35 3 684.561 685.892 684.879 ' 685.610 685.713 686.057 685.552 686.422. 687.025 687.732 683.274 686.147 685.425 686.313 685.573 685.493 687.512  *«""" 1863 1364 1865 1866 1367 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1373 1874 1875 1876 13 77 1378 1379 1380 1831 1332 1333 1334 1335 1".36 1337 18 33 1889 1390 13 91 1392 . 1393 1894 1395 1396 1397 13 93 ' U99 1900 1901 1902 1933 1904 1905 •1906 19 0 7 1938 • 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915  Mo An M««n Meon May 21-30 July 11-20 Stpt. *i-3U. 687.C38 635.434 685.684 684.239 634.558 630.377 634.041 683.194 684.272 637.C43 636.426 684.326 684.025 683.198 633.675 633.729 684.140 683.445 686.754 635.690 686.896 635.555 635.661 636.815 636.652 634.443 683.696 684.856 636.121 636.363 637.863 687.763 687.831 637.780 637.447 687.423 £37.786 690.051 639.191 688.281 638.202 638.608 6 8 8.017 686.709 686.737 688.893 689.443 688.298 688.148 635.989 686.925 636.650 685.166  65 9.266 667.013 685.848 635.660 684.479 681.299 683.608 685.457 688.360 688.824 687.936 686.344 686.103 685.310 636.027 686.376 686.435 686.242 693.131 690.152 639.453 688.439 639.569 693.493 689.433 636.380 687.216 689.211 689.322 690.319 691.006 691.256 691.344 692.334 690.974 639.682 691.241 694.427 693.946 691.179 691.257 692.415 691.279 688.947' 689.537 693.755 693.116 693.042 691.0 98 689.516 690.366 639.524 687.153  686.241 684.032 685.306 683.812 684.381 679.717 685.201 684.171 685.662 686.416 686.297 684.056 684.046 683.733684.364 684.340 683.540 682.600 687.996 686.170 636.030 685.423 685.6:; 8 685.961 685.031 683.755 684.737 686.381 666.007 686.673 686.227 606.545 666.34B 687.330 686.433 685.93 9 6«/.32 2 689.400 637.983 686.608 687.912 668.135 667.399 685.958 666. 746 688.745 68 7. 76.1 637.281 686.244 686.363 687. 303 686.151 684.364  Ttear 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1933 . 1931 1932 1933 19 34 1935 19 35 1937 1933 1939 .1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1943 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1953 1959 1963 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  Mean  Kccui  Mean  May 21-30 July 11-20 Sept. 21-30 635. 150 634.734 635.404 683.562 684.327 636.977 638.469 633.971 633.619 686.819 536.117 684.813 684.633 683.885 685.107 633.281 683.936 6C4.038 685.594 65>.193 63 3.322 6 86.152 683.736 634.861 635.223 635.861 684.374 6 3 4.711 634.212 633.906 683.653 635.302 6 « 5 . 117 635.344 685.C19 685.782 635.376 0i4,541 635 .C34 635.752 635.034 604.690 635.737 635.762 634.874 635.799 686.789 636.919 685.616 687.054 635.245 635.690  6P9.206 686.132 £37.486 684.379 687.937 666.044 687.663 684.44 7 687.740 685.261 693.201 68°.33ft 692.48Q 688.106 691.204 688.000 692.295 688.277 689.373 685.152 637.73C 686.103 633.213 685.097 636.544 684.342 637.155 6P4.6?0 686.264 6e5.298 635.485 684.222 637.304 664. 9 » 7 638. 445 685.317 690.135 687.553 639.314 693. 123 £3 3.77 2 691.735 657.553 685.7*1 685.376 683.098 6e5.694 637.313 684.406 687.073 684.C56 ' 536.725 684.652 686.756 684.734 688.005 683.175 685.830 682.703 684.372 683.227 685.310 664.640 687.729 685.537 688.208 684.*=> 2 687.403 664.234 686.906 635.211 687.833 685.171 633.733 662.S92 685.381 68 5. 494 6 3 7.917 685.313 687.717 684.277 636.911 685.821 63 7.60 6 664.996 637.410 667.105 669.316 6R6.467 688.621 636.530 669.146 688.036 693.554 6e6.4-31 689.530 669.235 690.037 63 7,fc3 3 690.057 73 2 639.425 686.95 3 689.725  tt,  &  V-  t^i  M> ^  8  to  fa  8«i %  95 cj© qz  < m «,b qS l<p oz  ot, c6  08  

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