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UBC Theses and Dissertations

A proposed goals oriented urban transit monitoring system Morton, John Roger 1977

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A PROPOSED GOALS ORIENTED URBAN TRANSIT MONITORING SYSTEM by JOHN ROGER MORTON B.A., York University, Toronto, 1973 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF ' THE REQUIREMENTS , FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES: School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September, 1977 © John Roger Morton, 1977 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements fo r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e fo r reference and study . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t permiss ion for e x t e n s i v e copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l ga in s h a l l not be a l lowed without my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department of Community and Regional Planning The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1WS D a t e Sept 7 , 1 9 7 7 ii ABSTRACT In recent years, the scope and role which urban t r a n s i t i s expected to play i n our c i t i e s has been expanded s u b s t a n t i a l l y . This renewed interest i n t r a n s i t has coincided with a greater awareness of the impacts of widespread automobile use and con-cerns over the future a v a i l a b i l i t y and price of petroleum pro-ducts. Policy makers are also more sensi t i v e to the needs of groups who may be experiencing mobility hadicaps. The purpose of t h i s thesis i s to develop a systematic urban t r a n s i t monitoring program designed to generate i n f o r -mation on the e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness of t r a n s i t services. A major emphasis has been to suggest a methodology which i s e x p l i c i t l y goal oriented and which provides useful feedback to t r a n s i t planners and management. The thesis f i r s t determines which goals are apparently being pursued by governments i n t h e i r expanded t r a n s i t programs. This review consists of an analysis of present t r a n s i t related l e g i s l a t i o n , p o l i c y statements by senior Ministers, and a review of recent urban transportation planning studies. I t i s noteworthy that many senior government t r a n s i t goals are only i n d i r e c t l y related to transportation. A second major task of the thesis i s to c r i t i c a l l y examine the potential of t r a n s i t systems to contribute to the achieve-ment of goals that are frequently stated as reasons for providing t r a n s i t service. This has been accomplished through a review of relevant t h e o r e t i c a l and empirical l i t e r a t u r e . i i i The t h i r d section of the thesis documents the c r i t e r i a and procedures presently used to monitor t r a n s i t services and describes the procedures by which decisions are made concerning the a l l o c a t i o n of t r a n s i t resources to d i f f e r e n t areas. The p r i n c i p l e sources of information i n t h i s section were obtained through a survey of Canadian and American t r a n s i t operators, the published reports of industry conferences, and a review of t r a n s i t evaluation procedures u t i l i z e d by senior governments. The major conclusions of the thesis are set out i n the form of a proposed monitoring system suitable for use i n medium to large metropolitan areas. Unlike current monitoring procedures, the proposed system i s e x p l i c i t l y goal oriented and would f a c i l i t a t e t r a n s i t resource a l l o c a t i o n decisions. Furthermore, implementation of such a system should foster more precise d e f i n i t i o n s of operational objectives by t r a n s i t management. Hence, i t i s conceivable that the conclusions of the thesis could contribute to the evolution of more cost-e f f e c t i v e urban transportation systems. IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENT In the preparation of t h i s t h e s i s , I received a great deal of help from faculty at the University, fellow students, and friends. I would l i k e to express my s p e c i a l thanks to my advisers and friends, Professors Poulton and Horn, Their many cr i t i c i s m s and suggestions caused me much anguish but i n the end helped me to produce a vastly improved f i n a l d r a ft. More importantly, they taught me to be more c r i t c a l of the subject matter at hand« In the course of my studies at U.B.C., I received f i n a n c i a l assistance from several sources to which I wishi to express my gratitude. These include the B.C.Telephone Company, The Roads and Transportation Association of Canada, and the Centre for Transportation Studies, U.B.C. F i n a l l y , I would l i k e to thank Beverly f o r her help im typing t h i s t h e s i s and f o r her perserverance and patience i n the many e a r l i e r drafts. Without her constant encouragement, I have my doubts as to whether I would ever have finished t h i s work. page v TABLE OF CONTENTS page ABSTRACT i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i i v LIST OF TABLES v i i LIST OF FIGURES v i i i Chapter I PROLOGUE 1 II RESEARCH OBJECTIVES • 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 Objectives of the Thesis 13 2.3 Need for Research 17 2.4 Overview of the Thesis 22 III CONCEPTUAL GOALS 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 The Policy Statements - Senior Levels of Government 28" 3.3 Local Government Policy Statements 34 3.4 P r o v i n c i a l Administrative Mechanisms 39 3.5 Transportation Plans 45 3.6 Summary 50 page v i Chapter page IV TRANSIT AND TRANSIT GOALS: THE ACCUMULATING EVIDENCE 4.1 Introduction 52 4.2 Transit as a S o c i a l Service 54 4.3 Transit and the Urban Structure 63 4.4 Transit as an Energy Conservation Measure 88 4.5 Closure 98 V TRANSIT MONITORING: CRITERIA IN USE 5 . 1 - Introduction 5.2 A Taxonomy of Urban Transit C r i t e r i a 102 5.3 C r i t e r i a Relating to Operational Outputs 107 5 .4 C r i t e r i a Relating to Program E f f i c i e n c y 109 5.5 C r i t e r i a Relating to Program Effectiveness 124 5.6 Summary 131 VI A PROPOSED GOALS ORIENTED URBAN TRANSIT MONITORING SYSTEM 6 . 1 Introduction 134 6 .2 The Role of Transit Monitoring 136 6 .3 S p e c i f i c a t i o n of Operational Output Measures 145 6 . 4 Indicators of Program Inputs 152 page v i i page 6.5 Programme Outputs 15$ 6 . 6 The Goals of Transit 162 6 .7 Proposed Indicators Relating to S o c i a l Objectives 166 6.8" Proposed Indicators Relating to Land Use Objectives 176 6 . 9 Proposed Measures Relating to Levels of Congestion 18"1 6 .10 Proposed Measures Relating to Energy and Environmental Objectives 185 6 . 1 1 Summary and Conclusions 189 REFERENCES 191 page v i i i LIST OF TABLES Table page 3 . 1 P r o v i n c i a l Assistance to Local Transit Systems 44 3 .2 Incomes of BART Riders 60 4.2 Land Value Increase i n Toronto 80 4 .3 Total Energy Consumption per Vehicle Mile for Several Urban Transportation Modes 93 5 . 1 Level of Service Standard U t i l i z e d i n Toronto 114 5.2 Level of Service Standard U t i l i z e d i n the Boston Metropolitan Area 115 5.3 Level of Service C r i t e r i a i n San Diego 118 5 . 4 Transportation Service Measures 121 6 . 1 Effect of Change i n Headway on Operational Output Measure 149; 6 .2 E f f e c t of Change i n Route Spacing on Operational Output Measure 149 6 .3 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to S o c i a l Objectives 169 6 . 4 Changes i n Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to Hypothetical Example 174 6 .5 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to Land Use Objectives 180 6 . 6 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to Congestion Reduction Objectives 1$4 6 . 7 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to Energy, and Environmental Objectives 18"8 page ix LIST OF F IGURES Figure page 1.1 Trends i n Total Ridership and Vehicle Miles 3 1.2 Trends i n Costs And Revenues 7 3.1 Elements of Recommended Land Use Plan in Toronto 48" 4.1 Hypothetical Costs and Benefits of Transportation F a c i l i t i e s 56 4.2 Diagrammatic Representation of C l a s s i c a l Location Theory 66 4.3 Rent Cone i n Pure One Commodity Market 67 4.4 Economic Rent Curve For Competing Land Uses 68 4.5 Conceptual Impact of Transportation upon Urban Development 72 4.6 Per Capita Office Construction i n Selected American C i t i e s 83 4.7 Modal Energy E f f i c i e n c y vs. Vehicle U t i l i s a t i o n ' U t i l i z a t i o n 95 5.1 Diagrammatic Representation of Levels of Transit C r i t e r i a 105 5.2 I l l u s t r a t i v e Mapping Procedure to Determine Transit A c c e s s i b i l i t y 113 5.3 Levels of Service of Alternative Transit Plans i n San Diego 117 5.4 Percentage of Opportunities Accessible to Average Household - Vancouver 120 6.1 Relationship of Transit Monitoring to Higher Level Monitoring Programs 144 1 C H A P T E R 1 P R O L O G U E On November 21, 1861, some s i x years before the f o r -mation of the Canadian Confederation, an important event occurred i n old Montreal Town. On that day, the Montreal City Passenger Railway Company opened i t ' s f i r s t horse-drawn public transportation system. The new system was generally well received by the c i t i z e n r y although accounts of the event note that the o f f i c i a l opening ceremonies were marred by a public demonstration by i r a t e cab drivers, f e a r f u l that they might lose business. The f i r s t cars of the new system were constructed at a cost of $1500 each. The early company expanded at a good rate despite high fares which were set at 8 t i c k e t s for 25# during peak hours. By 1875, the company owned some 4oo horses and over 100 vehicles.(Hayes, 1963, P»3) 2 On June 17 , 1977, on the Vancouver, B r i t i s h Columbia waterfront, an event of s i m i l a r fanfare, i f not importance, \ occurred with the opening of the Burrard Inlet Ferry public transportation system. The passenger-only ferry was designed to l i n k up two urban areas of Metropolitan Vancouver without the necessity of a new bridge crossing the formidable Burrard I n l e t . The new " Seabus "system, consisting of two f e r r i e s and a l l i e d port f a c i l i t i e s was reported to have cost i n excess of 46 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . Press accounts suggest the new system was also well received by the public although a demonstration by bicycle club members, angry because the system could not accomodate cycles, was held at the o f f i c i a l ceremonies. F i r s t day ridership f o r the ferry system was high, perhaps due i n part to the low fares of 35£ charged by the system. ( The Vancouver Sun, June 17, 1977, P»l ) That the opening of public t r a n s i t systems l i k e the Montreal tramway and the many technological improvements which were to follow were events of great c i v i c importance i s not disputed. The new technology of t r a n s i t provided a means f o r the middle and upper income groups to escape the squalid conditions of the densely populated i n d u s t r i a l 3 FIGURE .1.1 Trends inTotol Ridership and Vehicle.Miles CANADIAN TRANSIT PROPERTIES I 1 : 1 1 1 -*1 '—I 1940 1950 1960 " 1970 YEAR source: Canadian Urban T r a n s i t A s s o c i a t i o n , T r a n s i t Fact  Book (Ottawa, 1975) e: 1976 estimate based on S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Urban T r a n s i t ( P u b l i c a t i o n 53-003, D e c , 1976) c i t i e s which were emerging in the LSOO's. The effect of transit was to greatly increase the importance and influence of the central core by making i t accessible to a greater area. The new lines were often quickly followed by new residential development and i t was observed that central city densities generally declined. The importance of transit was explicitly recognized by Burgess and Hoyt in the early models of the internal structure of the city. Hence, the impact of transit upon the nineteenth century city was far greater than a simple transportation improve-ment. Rather, the effect of early transit is known for i t ' s social impact; especially for the suburbanization and segregation of the middle classes. (Yeates and Garner, 1971, pp217-22.1.) The nature of early transit's relationship with urban development, however, is not straightforward. It is commonly assumed that the new lines were simply extended into the hinterland somehow causing new devel-opment to occur autonomously. Warner ( 1962 ) argues convincingly, that a close co-operation existed between the early transit companies and the developer-speculators of the time. It was the developer who actually deter-mined the areas where new residential development should 5 occur* Having already decided on a land use plan, the t r a n s i t company then s t r a t e g i c a l l y l a i d out new l i n e s through the preplotted subdivision thereby guaranteeing future t r a f f i c and p r o f i t s . The importance of t r a n s i t i n t h i s symbiotic relationship was c l e a r l y of only secon-dary nature. The various private companies and systems continued to expand t h e i r networks and these were generally followed by s i m i l a r rises i n patronage and revenues. The fortune of most t r a n s i t companies however, as a high growth industry was s h o r t - l i v e d . Ridership levels i n most North American c i t i e s peaked during the 1920 Ts especially when measured on a per-capita basis. There followed a long term decline that has continued v i r t u a l l y to t h i s day. While there Have been many reasons c i t e d as responsible f o r the decline, the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mass produced automobiles must be recognized as the chief determinant.. Others have also cited a general p r o f i t squeeze caused by escalating costs and the general r i s e i n affluence of the populace. For a number of reasons, to be explored in detail later, public attitudes about transit began to change in the middle sixties. Increasingly, governments at a l l levels were prepared to subsidize various aspects of tran-s i t ' s operations. The chief reasons associated with fchis re-emergence of transit has been a new perception of the external social costs of widespread automobile use, and, in some cases, a belief that transit is required to sup-port densely developed commercial areas. In addition, there is concern for groups of people in society who may be handicapped through lack of access to an automobile. For whatever the reasons, the aggregate effect of new public support has been to increase the supply of transit services available. This increased supply of transit has apparently been responsible for a modest but significant increase in national patronage levels which have been observed in recent years. The public cost of these improvements has been great. In 1976, i t is est&iafctffidfctnat total operating expenses of Canadian transit properties exceeded operating profits by some $200 million. 1) estimate based on Statistics Canada, URBAN TRANSIT (publi-cation 53-003, December 1976 ) * The term transit "property" is used throughout the industry and refers to that organization which actually operates tran-s i t systems whether such systems are public or private. FIGURE 1.2 Trends in Costs and Revenue Canadian Transit Properties 1940 I9SO I960 1970 YEAR source: Canadian Urban T r a n s i t A s s o c i a t i o n , T r a n s i t Fact Book (Ottawa, 1975) 1976 estimate based on S t a t i s t i c s Canada, e Urban T r a n s i t ( P u b l i c a t i o n 53-003, Dec., 1976) The re-emergence of t r a n s i t , however, has not been without heated debate by those who question whether bene f i t s accruing from t r a n s i t are worth the costs. I f cur-rent projects bear an uncanny resemblance to t r a n s i t ' s antecedents, one should not assume they can be evaluated i n the same manner. Issues and urban conditions are not the same. Public goals and objectives have changed. A fundamental dilemma f o r t r a n s i t managers, public plan-ners and elected o f f i c i a l s has thus emerged. Like most public issues, the benefits derived from t r a n s i t do not lend themselves to quick m e t r i f i c a t i o n . While there i s general agreement that p r o f i t s cannot be used as indicators of the worth of a system or of i t ' s compon-ent parts or routes, l i t t l e concensus has been reached! as to an acceptable alternative mechanism. There i s a need f o r a systematic methodology through which trade-offs between economic e f f i c i e n c y and the furthering of community objectives can be f a c i l i t a t e d . The purpose of t h i s thesis i s to suggest a conceptual framework by which these trade-offs can be made e x p l i c i t . 9 C H A P T E R 2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 2.1 INTRODUCTION The re-emergence of transit as a potent urban i n s t i -tution has been accompanied by a host of new objectives which in the past have been largely ignored by the urban transportation planning process. This re-emergence has also required increasingly large injections of public monies to keep pace with rising costs and to finance increased service. The magnitude of def i c i t financing which is apparently necessary to keep transit viable is so great that i t has caused substantial debate.. Hilton (1974) , for example, in his scathing review of American transit policy, questions the desirability of a transportation policy which accepts continuing annual deficits as a matter of fact. A p a r t i c u l a r problem f o r those charged with admin-i s t e r i n g and managing new rpograms of t r a n s i t assistance stems from the d i f f i c u l t y of evaluating the ef f e c t of the various programs. When t r a n s i t was a private, a l b e i t sometimes regulated industry, t h i s evaluation was simple. The ultimate test was whether a system or a component part of the system was p r o f i t a b l e . Admittedly, the process may have been complicated by a regulatory body whose concerns were more than simple p r o f i t and loss statements. Nor i s the evaluation methodology employed i n the t r a d i t i o n a l transportation planning process appropriate for many t r a n s i t a l l o c a t i o n decisions. The t r a d i t i o n a l model views evaluation as the culminating step i n what i s e s s e n t i a l l y a design process. After several a l t e r -natives have been formulated, evaluation attempts to rank alternatives with respect to some exogenously deter-mined normative c r i t e r i a . . Decision makers are then free to choose that alternative which best meets t h e i r own perceptions of what values and concerns are important. This alternative i s then implemented. I t i s noteworthy that the model just described evolved i n a period when urban transportation"planning was almost e n t i r e l y concerned with the construction of new streets and highways. I f forecasted levels of t r a f f i c proved to be wrong, there was l i t t l e that could be done to correct past errors. I f , following construction, community tastes or demands changed, the roadway was not expected to respond to t h i s change. Hence, there was l i t t l e need for a continuing evaluation of the worth of the roadway. Beginning sometime i n the mid-sixties, c r i t e r i a r e f l e c t i n g new s o c i a l and environmental considerations were integrated into the urban transportation planning process. In addition, the range of alternatives considered i n the strategic planning process was broadened. Compre-hensive programs emphasising public transportation were e x p l i c i t l y considered along with the more t r a d i t i o n a l highway programs. From this process, a number of metro-politan areas opted for t r a n s i t oriented programs designed to solve t h e i r long-term transportation problems. The decision to adopt a particular transit alterna-tive is based on a favourable evaluation of i t ' s effect-iveness in meeting certain goals. Such a decision is made based on an "a pri o r i " evaluation relying on forecasts of anticipated consequences which may never be realized. Failure to properly anticipate consequences may result because of a lack of understanding of dynamic processes or because of lack of control over other relevant variables. Because transit programs are usually incremental in nature and, compared to highway projects, require a greater proportion of public expenditures to cover operating costs, a much greater reliance is placed on a system of continued monitoring. < 2.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE THESIS The objective of this thesis is the development of an improved conceptual model of performance monitoring appropriate for use by transit operators and planning organizations. The implementation of an improved system of transit monitoring is not of course, an end in i t s e l f . Monitoring the effect of past actions i s important to insure that apparticular action is causing the anticipated outcome. Hence, i t i s important that a transit monitor-ing system develop the type of information which is related to preferred policy outcomes. An underlying premise of the thesis is that the development of more explicitly goal oriented measure-ment techniques and criteria w i l l enable and foster the development of more r e a l i s t i c and precise object-ives for transit. An important aspect of precise oper-ational objectives, however, is specification of the means by which they may be measured. The development of an appropriate mechanism to do so i s the main objective of the t h e s i s . Better information should also improve t r a n s i t mar-keting s t r a t e g i e s. With such information, t r a n s i t mar-keting could adopt a stance more akin to that of most consumer ind u s t r i e s . Service could be offered to meet the s p e c i a l needs of segmented portions of the t r a n s i t market. Unlike private firms who seek to maximize eco-nomic p r o f i t , the driving force of the t r a n s i t marketing program should be the maximization of s o c i a l p r o f i t as revealed through a communities' goals and objectives. Clearly, the economic v i a b i l i t y of t r a n s i t invest-ments w i l l always be an important aspect of a l l commun-i t i e s ' t r a n s i t programs. It does not follow, however, that maximizing economic p r o f i t , revenues, or passen-gers (given a budget constraint) w i l l be the best means to achieve community goals. Transit resources might bette be allocated to s p e c i f i c groups, to s p e c i f i c s p a t i a l areas or to speeifie temporal periods. Moreover, differing conditions and aspirations be-tween urban areas are likely to give rise to differing objectives for transit. A major effort has been the deve ment of a goal-oriented monitoring strategy. The intent of the thesis is not to suggest which goals are appro-priate for a l l communities. Rather, an attempt has been made to delineate the main recurring objectives suggested for transit; and to integrate those goals which are likely to be influenced through the service function (i.e. specification of routes, schedules, and service policy) into a systematic measurement system. The implementation of such a system is likely to be of particular value to those in a position to allocate the available resources to different spatial areas (i.e. a transit planning organization). Information generated by such a system should also be of value to higher levels of planning such as urban transportation planning and 16 urban/regional planning. If the conditions and circum-stances where transit is working and where i t does not seem to work become explicit, planners should be in a better position to influence the evolution ©f a more cost-effective urban transportation system. 2.3 NEED FOR RESEARCH Existin g methods of performance monitoring f o r urban t r a n s i t r e l y upon a variety of operational measures of t r a n s i t performance collected and usually compiled by l o c a l t r a n s i t operators. Generally such measures are collected on a route by route (link) basis and are often aggregated into system wide (urban) indices. The s t a t i s -t i v a l reports of t r a n s i t operators t y p i c a l l y present i n -formation on inputs, outputs, and some r a t i o of inputs to outputs. Measures of t r a n s i t performance at the zonal (or area) l e v e l are p a r t i c u l a r i l y lacking. Basic marketing information i s also notably lacking. For most firms, markets are broken down into segments to meet the specia l i z e d needs of diff e r e n t groups of peo-ple. Transit, however, i s one of the few industries s t i l l producing an e s s e n t i a l l y standardized product. (Reed, 1976, p.9). Moreover, l i t t l e i s known about the t r a v e l behaviour of i n d i v i d u a l passengers nor the cha r a c t e r i s t i c s of individuals and groups who currently make up the transit market, Smerk (1974, p. 231), commenting on the lack of specific data collected by transit operators conclud-ed • "(F)ew transit operators can give day-by-day, trip-by-trip information on patron-age or on the origins or destinations of patrons, or can provide a data profile of i t ' s patrons. Few can, as a matter of course, detail the cost of a given t r i p , or the revenue contributions such routes or trips make, or the benefits conferred to the public by such t r i p s . Much of the federal program is based on the assumption that there are overspill benefits from transit sufficient to warrant the subsidy of transit operations yet there is no definitive, standardized method of calculating the benefits." Likewise, methodologies designed to quantify the attributes of the transit system or the"level of service" are crude.^ Conventional methodology expresses level of 1) No suitable definition of level of service directly applicable to transit has been found. For highway planning, the most authoritative source, the Highway Capacity Manual, defines 1 i t as follows: "Level of service Is a term which broadly interpreted, denotes any one of an i n f i n i t e num-ber ©f differing conditions that may occur on a given lane, or roadway when i t is accomadating various t r a f f i c volumes* Level of:service i s a qualitative measure of the effect of a number of factors , which includes speed and travel time, t r a f f i c interruptions, freedom to maneuvers, safety, driving comfortsnd convenience, and operating costs. In practice, selected specific levels are defined in terms of particular limiting values of certain of these factors." (1965, P.7) service i n terms of l i n k frequency of service. The most notable reference i n t h i s area i s the manual published by the National Coanaitee for Urban Transit (1958). More recently, attempts have been made to define l e v e l of ser-vice more precisely. A promising approach u t i l i z e s a concept of a c c e s s i b i l i t y . ( ITE Technical Committee 6y -1, 1976 ). A substantial body of l i t e r a t u r e suggests measures of t r a n s i t l evel-of-service are appropriate c r i t e r i a f or periodic evaluations ©f t r a n s i t programs. (Botzow, 1974; Weiner, 1972 ). The relationship of l e v e l of ser-vice to the achievement of urban objectives i s found i n the c l a s s i c ends-means paradigm. Rice (1972), however, i s concerned that overreliance on these c r i t e r i a w i l l lead to fa u l t y policy evaluations since they a c t u a l l y measure inputs to a policy rather than outputs. The best of plans do not always work. Hence, the use of l e v e l of service c r i t e r i a i s more applicable to the systematic monitoring of the progress made implementing a pian rather than the policy outcome of implementation. A related segment of the relevant level of service literature seeks to u t i l i z e quantifiable measures of level of service to set specific transit planning standards. In reality, such standards set the lower limits below which transit services w i l l not be offered. Some attempts have been made to integrate general transit planning objectives .2 to the application of these standards. While standards can play an important role in the management of transit systems, they are not substitutes for more r e a l i s t i c measures of transit performance or effectiveness. Further-more, the environment in:which- transit operating decisions are made is complex. Operators must respond to rapidly changing levels of demand which occur both temporally and spatially. Standards which are formulated are broad and general. Adherence to such standards may lessen the propensity to introduce inovation into a transit systsemv Heathington, (1975,p.3) argues.** " (Planners, on the other hand, in the search for hard to define goals and objectives, have turned their attention to widely appli-cable 'service standards'. At times these service standards have been used blindly. If goals are stated, they frequently are formulated to satisfy funding requirements and are broad and general." 2» Several transit o-erators have made notable strides in the development of operating standards which are "ends oriented". See, for example, Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, Service Policy for Public  Transportation (unpublished, Boston, 1975) ~~ "Operators faced with rapidly rising defi-c i t s , declining riderships, and lack of specific direction from local authorities often feel that continuing existing operat-ing procedures is the safest course to follow." In summary, the available literature which is rele-vant to transit monitoring suggests a variety of method-ologies are employed by transit properties to monitor the performance of their operations. Existing techniques are characterized as being crude. Often there is a lack of basic information from which criteria can be construc-ted. Operators and transit planning organizations often u t i l i z e similar criteria to both construct qualitative level of service standards and as a performance measure-ment technique. In a subsequent chapter, much more detail w i l l be devoted to techniques currently in use by transit operators. 2.4 OVERVIEW OF THE THESIS The thesis is divided into four main themes. In chapter Three, the conceptual goals of transit are uncov-ered. This i s accomplished through an analysis of rele-vant policy statements by senior ministers and o f f i c i a l s of goverment and a review of the articulated goals of recent land use/transportation studies. A survey is also conducted of the relevant legislation and administrative machinery set up by provincial governments to administer their transit policies. The main recurring goals respon-sible for the renewed interest in transit are then syn-thesized from these various sources and presented. Chapter Four examines the characteristics of transit* which appear related to the goals or issues areas identi-fied in Chapter Three. Both the theoretical rationale for transit and the accumulating empirical evidence of transit's actual performance are reviewed through the literature. While the thesis is not presumptuous enough to reach definitive, conclusions as to transit's potential 23 in meeting the various goals set out for i t , a better understanding of the many constraints faced by transit is gained. Further, i t is clear that there are alter-native means of meeting many of the broad objectives. This Chapter then, provides the framework by which exist-ing evaluatory criteria can be assessed. In Chapter Five, a detailed review of the criteria and techniques currently used to monitor transit is pre-sented. The review draws from several different sources and vantage points. These include several surveys of transit operators and planning organizations, procedures utilized in several recent and progressive transit development plans, and methodologies suggested by academicians. It was found that commonly employed criteria often related to the internal efficiency of transit operations or are crude in nature. Criteria seldom relate to the apparent goals as identified in Chapter Three. Finally, Chapter Six deals with the development of a systematic methodology with which to monitor the effec-tiveness of transit operations in meeting community ob-jectives. Recurring goals, as identified in Chapter Three, are f i r s t grouped into four thematic areas which are likely to be affected thrugh similar operational mechanisms. Specific methodologies to monitor both inputs and outputs are de-scribed and several practical illustrations of possible use are presented. Where forseen, the limitations of the proposed methodology are also discussed. Finally, the implications of the proposed system to transit planning are discussed and areas where future research appears warranted are set out. In summary, then, the thesis attempts a far more ambi-tous task than simply identifying an array of possible indicators which are in some way, shape, or form related to the urban transportation system. Rather, a concept-ual methodology, albeit untested and unrefined, is sugg-ested through which a comprehensive program of publie transportation can be monitored and evaluated in terms of specific operational objectives. The methodology w i l l be most beneficial to the transit planning organization which must make allocative decisions concerning transit resources. CHAPTER 3 CONCEPTUAL GOALS 3.1 INTRODUCTION A plan may be viewed as a statement of programs .recommendedwasfo best for achieving a certain set of goals given a set amount of resources available. The decision to adopt a certain sequence of programs over other possi-ble programs is facilitated through the process of eval-uation. Whether one is monitoring the effectiveness of past allocative decisions or attempting to predict the consequences of proposed actions, the central questions of evaluation remain the same. This question involves making a judgement as to the extent to which goals have been met through a particular organization of available resources. In theory, the actual evaluation w i l l be conducted by accountable decision makers. The role of the planner in this process, is that of a technical specialist. It is the planner's task to generate timely and relevant information to f a c i l i t a t e the choice between alternative courses of action. The planner&s role is therefore paradoxical. He is charged with providing information to f a c i l i t a t e account-able decision makers' evaluation; yet he receives l i t t l e guidance to indicate what type of information is relevant and feasible. Policy statements which may have been made are apt to be vague. A local goal to increase transit ridership may be operationally measurable, but reveals l i t t l e as to what purpose is to be served by the increased ridership. Likewise, a local goal to promote "balanced transportation" reveals even less as to what issues are foremost in policy maker's minds* Specifying the actions which policy makers wish to take rather than the goaIs which they hope to accomplish is apt to lead planners to generate only information concerning t h 8 t action. An attempt must be made to uncover the issues which have caused policy makers to promote public transportation over other alternatives and then to relate evaluatory information generated to these issues. The pupose of this Chapter is to explicitly document the issues which appear foremost in policy makerSs minds. To accomplish these ends, several techniques were employ-ed. First, a review of important policy statements con-cerning transit made by senior o f f i c i a l s of government is presented. These statements are analyzed to reveal the fundamental issues. Secondly, a survey of government administrative machinery and of the review processes of the provinces concerning their transit programs was conducted to determine the degree and manner in which government enunciated policy has actually been translated into action programs. Finally, recent transportation studies were reviewed to document common goals at the operational level. 28 3.2 THE POLICY STATEMENTS - SENIOR LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT The Federal government, for the most part, does not directly become involved in local urban transportation decision making. Some projects are funded through the Transportation Development Agency - the research arm of the Federal Transport Ministry - but usually only for demonstration p u r p o s e s . L o c a l transportation under the B.N.A. Act, i s a provincial responsibility. It i s not inconceivable, however, that the Federal role could become significant in the future. The Provincial Government's role in transit is exten-sive. In recent years the provincial governments have been assuming an increasing share of municipal transit de f i c i t s . In 1976 , Provincial grants to local transit .2 programs for operating assistance was over $200 million. What were the events which caused government to assume such great deficits? 1) The Vancouver 'Turn Down Traffic Volume' project,for example, is funded as a demonstration project through T.D.A. 2] Estimate based on Statistics Canada, Urban Transit (pub. # 53-003, December 1976.) In Ontario, the most urbanized province and also the province with the largest transit program, government policy was changed in 1972 following the provincial gov-ernment's decision to cancel the Spadina Expressway - a major urban freeway. A statement issued by the Premier provided^the basis for a new urban transportation empha-sis stressing transit instead of highways. In his state-ment, Premier Davis indicated concern for environmental quality, social impacts of highways, the efficiency of alternative systems and the mobility problems of certain segments of society. The statement began by articulating the qualities important in c i t i e s . The city... "... should be a place that is rich in variety of employment, housing, and leisure a c t i v i t i e s . " "... should be a place where i t is possi-ble to move quickly and with safety from one place to another. It is a place where children and the old people and those without""a private automobile should be able to move about safely ancf convenient- ly. " (Davis, 197Z-, p . l emphasis mine.) This provides a general framework which Ontario is apparently using to guide i t ' s transit program. The Prer mier believes expressways provide a safe and effective means of inter-urban movement. Th«y are not suitable for urban areas however, because.. n... unrestricted use of cars and trucks during peak hours is "causing our urban transportation problems to become c r i t i c a l , " "... as a means of solving our urban trans-portation problems, expressways are not only too expensive for the t r a f f i c moved, but because of their accompanying intrusion, noise, and a i r pollution, they have become unacceptable in residential neighbourhoods," (p.3, emphasis mine.) Ontario also has aspirations to use transit as a tool to help implement the overall development objectives of the region. There is a belief that investment in transit as opposed to urban freeways ... "... w i l l encourage moderate density r e s i - dential areas which may bring about a new sense of community belonging, not unlike  the cities of the past which also evolved  around major public transit systems." (p. 19, emphasis mine.) It is not clear, however, whether development i s expected to spontaneously evolve around transit f a c i l i t ies or whether development w i l l be consciously planned to support new transit systems. "It may be necessary to plan the sit i n g of large buildings more consciously in the future than has been the case in the past. Such commercial development should offset most of the expense of the original land acquisition and bring people close to the transportation system." (p.19, emphasis mine.) In Alberta, a similar concern about the environment-a l consequences of urban freeways is expressed. In order to give urban systems in Alberta more 'balanced transpor-tation* ... "(A) new emphasis is being placed on modern transportation services for the urban cen-tres of Alberta. The emphasis not only relates to the efficient movement of peo-ple; i t also reflects a determination to avoid the adverse environmental implica- tions of improperly planned transportation." (Government of Alberta Human Settlement Policies, 1976, p*21.) Alberta's objectives are being pursued by extensive upgrading of municipal transit systems. This is expected to cause people to change their travel habits. Reduction in the number of people who travel by automobile w i l l . . . "... alleviate the pressure which results from private automobile travel." (p. 21) In British Columbia, where transit services have been greatly expanded in recent years, a similar concern about the need for '•'balanced transportation' has been expound-ed. In addition to the concerns noted in other provinces, the government has a somewhat stronger view about the income distributional consequences of alternative invest-ments. In a 1973 policy statement, the minister respon-sible for transit stated: "As a result of our efforts in public transportation, we would see the accrual of benefits in the form of greater mobil-it y foir persons and more efficient use of existing road space by enabling more people to travel over the same roads. We see our efforts decreasing the depen-dency of persons on movement by private automobiles and removing the pressures to  build more roads, parking f a c i l i t i e s , and  bridges with the attendant loss of land and l i v a b i l i t y in our communities. Fur-thermore, we w i l l be using transit planning as a positive tool to shape future devel- opment of our communities in directions suited to the needs of present and future residents. (Lorimer, 1973, p.H, Emphasis mine.) It i s unclear whether Mr. Lorimer's statement i n d i -catesi a belief that transit w i l l influence land-use de-velopments or whether crite r i a and measures w i l l be adopt-ed in the land use planning process so as to promote deKelopment which w i l l support a regional transit system The Minister's statement also shedsssome light on what type of evaluation is considered appropriate to compare alternative transit systems. Evaluation.• • "... not only looks at the monetary costs and revenues, but also considers such aspects as pollution, the distribution of costs and bene- f i t s on various subgroups in society (ie. who benefits and who pays) and the impact upon  community land use planning." (p.11, emphasis mine.) 3.3 LOCAL GOVERNMENT POLICY STATEMENTS Local government statements concerning the role of transit generally reflect concerns similar to those held by more senior governments. Emphasis upon particular objectives, however, may di f f e r substantially. As a general rule, Municipal concerns reflect a more narrow viewpoint as to the objectives which transportation in general, and transit in particular is expected to achieve. Local governments tend to emphasize immediate problems. Transit is envisioned as one component of an overall t r a f f i c management strategy. Under® standably, the major goal of municipal government is the efficient movement of t r a f f i c to areas in which the existing street system is inadequate. Where secondary objectives and impacts are of concern to local governments, they may not necessarily be the same as those held by senior government. An emerging viewpoint from provincial governments, for example, is to pursue a goal of social equity. In this case, transit subsidies are justified, in part, because of the perceived effect upon the redistribution of income. It is clear that transit subsidies are seen to be a means to affect the distribution from rich to poor. Yet, local goals may be to equalize transit service to a l l parts 35 of the region. The effect of such a policy upon the distribution of income is not clear. Indeed, a policy that vastly increases the service in suburban areas may be regressive. While municipalities generally share equal concern over the concomitant impacts which result from urban freeway building, they are equally sensitive to the impacts which result from expanded transit systems. The introduction of an urban bus line onto a formerly quiet street, as is commonly found in suburban areas, can substantially lower the l i v a b i l i t y of that street in the eyes of local residents. Likewise, parking restrictions introduced in business/commercial areas, can be a matter of serious inconvenience to local businesses. The odor of diesel fuel seems more foul to the nose than automobile exhaust. Whereas the direct impacts resulting from urban freeways are large and localized, and hence vigorously opposed, the impacts from transit are smaller, yet more pervasive. Provincial governments, who typically are not the implementing agency, may be better insulated from public controversy which may erupt. For this reason, local governments tend to become more involved in matters of detailed route design than do their provincial counterparts. Statements of policy concerning t r a n s i t and i t ' s role i n municipalities do not normally emerge from l o c a l councils. There i s not the same need to disseminate information to other levels of government as there i s i n p r o v i n c i a l govern-ments. While a great deal of t r a n s i t policy making i s con-ducted by l o c a l councils, i t i s rare f o r councils to a r t i c -ulate the higher l e v e l objectifies which they hope to accom-p l i s h through transit.. Where such policy statements are made, they tend to be masked i n g e n e r a l i t i e s . In Vancouver, for example, during the 1976 c i v i c election campaign, a l l parties generally supported t r a n s i t . The Electors Action Movement (TEAM) proposed tor 3L "Continue improvements of the bus system - including; a free bus service i n the downtown area i n order to a l l e v i a t e the serious t r a f f i c congestion." 2. "The s t a r t of a l i g h t rapid t r a n s i t service i n the Greater Vancouver area i s an absolute e s s e n t i a l i n the next f i v e years."*^- (emphasis mine) Statements by regional governments i n Vancouver exhibit a broader concern than those shown by municipal governments but less broad than those shown by p r o v i n c i a l governments. 1. The TEAM Record. t (TEAM Campaign '76 Headquarters, Vancouver, October, 1976, p. 1 ) A statement by the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t Board to the p r o v i n c i a l Minister of Municipal A f f a i r s indicated that increased emphais upon public transportation w i l l ... " ... meet the growing requirements f o r personal t r a v e l between parts of the region and between major a c t i v i t y centres by t r a n s i t rather than by improving road capacity for greater automobile usage. This strategy should economize on t r a v e l  costs, reinforce the Regional Town Centres"1 ~ Program, reduce through t r a f f i c i n sub-regions,  conserve energy and control p o l l u t i o n . " *Z (emphais mine) The GVRD hopes to finance i t s plans for new r a i l t r a n s i t , i n part, through higher user fees on automobile licences. According to the GVRD, automobile taxes are j u s t i f i e d , becaus.eeautomobile users w i l l benefit through a reduction i n congestion, gasoline expenditures and insurance costs. In addition, municipalities w i l l be asked to levy higher property taxes to bene f i c i a r i e s of the r a i l system. No s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a has been suggested to enable municipalities to determine what ad d i t i o n a l property lev i e s .3 were equitable. Statements on the Next Stage of Public Transportation  Improvements., (Communication from the GVRD board of Directors to the Minister of Municipal A f f a i r s , Sept. 26, 1974) 3. The Sun (Vancouver^ Dec. 10, 1976, p. 1) 38 In Edmonton, where the p r o v i n c i a l government requires periodic formal statements of municipal goals, the City Council made an attempt to a r t i c u l a t e the t r a n s i t goals of the c i t y . The expansion of the Edmonton Transit System to serve suburban areas... "... (E)ven operating at a substantial d e f i c i t ... has the pote n t i a l to save a great deal of expenditures on freeways, a r t e r i a l roads, and central c i t y parking. The operation of express busses ... at short i n t e r v a l s thereafter, with convenient transfer provision, would probably res u l t i n a s i g n i f i c a n t decrease i n . the number of one passenger cars now commuting." *^ (emphasis mine) Edmonton City Council, A Statement on the Euture of the  Cit y . , (Submission to the Minister of Municipal A f f a i r s , Province of Alberta, 1973) 39 3.4 PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATIVE MECHANISMS Provincial administrative mechanisms to guide and pro-mote the greater use and role of t r a n s i t i n urban areas d i f f e r widely between provinces and regions. Almost a l l provinces make some f i n a n c i a l contribution to a s s i s t l o c a l t r a n s i t systems. In general, the more urbanized and prosperous the province, the greater l i k e l i h o o d that funding mechanisms are determined by some ascertainable c r i t e r i a . Most provinces, however, r e t a i n some discretionary control over t r a n s i t assistance funding. In Ontario, the province provided over $133 m i l l i o n to a s s i s t municipalities to acquire and run public transportation systems i n f i s c a l year 1976, under authority of the Public  Transportation and Highway Improvement Act (R.S.O. 1970, c 701 as amended). Prior to January 1, 1977, the province provided 75 percent p r o v i n c i a l financing of t r a n s i t c a p i t a l costs and 50 percent financing of operating d e f i c i t s . The province has now adopted a formula whereby operating costs incurred by l o c a l t r a n s i t properties (municipally owned) are e l i g i b l e expenses and may be subsidized up to 25 percent by the province. The change came a f t e r complaints were received from municipalities unhappy with the old formula. Under the old .5 formula, fare increases were, i n e f f e c t , shared with the province. 5.- Personal communication with R.B.McEwan, Manager, Administration, Transit O f f i c e , Ministry of Transportation & Communication, Province of Ontario. 40 In Alberta, the province administers capital improvement grants for municipal transit systems as a trust fund. Under Alberta's Urban Transportation Policy, initiated in June, 1974, the province automatically deposits capital grants to special municipal accounts. Ten cities and urban areas are currently eligible for the grants. Eligible cities which do not have transit systems are allowed to collect interest on the funds until such time as a system is developed. Six Alberta urban areas currently have some form of transit service operating. Under terms of the program, Edmonton and Calgary each receive $7§5 million annually for transit capital costs. Eight other Alberta cities share a total of $1,130,000 annually. Transit operating subsidies are also financed up to 50 percent of the operating defi c i t subject to a maximum provincial contribution of $3.33 per capita per year. In addition, the province w i l l also fund up to 2/3 ^ f the cost of transit research and development projects. Transit assistance to Quebec cities is administered according to a complex formula. The province w i l l pay up to 30 percent of capital costs for buses manufactured within the province and 10 percent for buses manufactured elsewhere. 6 . Personal communication with Mr. Leo L. LeClerc, Assistant Minister, Urban Transportation Policy Development, Alberta Transportation, Nov. 9, 1976 41 Municipalities acquiring private transit systems can apply for provincial grants for up to 1/3 of the cost of acquisition. In the case of the Montreal Urban Community, the province financed 60 percent of the acquisition cost. The province also provides operating assistance to municipally owned public transit properties or to private concerns operating transit service under contract to munici-paliti e s . The size of the pperating grant varies according to population of the city but generally ranges between 45 to 55 percent of the total operating d e f i c i t . The province w i l l also provide 100 percent of the cost of urban transportation .7 studies. In British Columbia, provincial transit policy is s t i l l evolving and has not been codified to the extent i t has in some other porvinces. In the past, the provincial government has financed 100 percent of the cost of new buses and absorbed 50 percent of the cost of some operating expenses. The B.C. situation is unique among Canadian Provinces in that the B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, a provincial Crown corporation, provides transit service in the two largest c i t i e s . Financial assistance to B.C. Hydro is largely discretionary. A special grant of $32.5 million was given to the company in 1976 to offset its d e f i c i t . 7. Personal communication with M. Jacques Simard, Directer of Public Transportation, Ministere des Transports, Province of Quebec. 42 Provincial assistance toward municipal transit operations in other Canadian cities differs widely in form and magnitude of assistance. In Saskatchewan, for instance, the province w i l l finance up t© 50 percent of capital costs toward the purchase of new buses and up to 75 percent of certain other capital costs pertaining to transit operations on roadways (eg. roadway turn-ins, bus shelters, etc.). The province also provides operating assistance to municipally run transit systems up to a maximum of 3i per revenue passenger carried. The program is open to a l l urban areas having a population over 1000 and is administered by the provincial highways department. In Newfoundland, the province w i l l contribute up to $4.00 per capita subject to a maximum contribution of $3^5,000 per year toward the operation of the municipally run transit system of St. Johns. No other city in the province has municipally operated transit service. The special grant i s administered by the provincial Department of Transportation and Communications and is completely discretionary. personal communication with Mr, John M. King, Urban Trans-portation Engineer, Department of Highways and Transportation, Province of Saskatchewan, 9. personal communication with the Honourable James Morgan, MPA, Minister of Transportation and Communication, Government of Newfoundland. In New Brunswick, no assistance is available which is directly attributable to municipal transit programs. The province does make available unconditional grantss to a l l municipalities. These grants are based on a prorata proportion of a l l municipal expenditures. Provincial authorities estimate this indirect grant provided about $215,000 in 1976 toward the .10 operation of two municipal transit systems, A summary of the various provincial programs is shown in TABLE 3.1 .10 personal communication with Mr. G.B. Hawkins, Director, Municipal Services Branch, Department of Municipal Affairs, Province of New Brunswick TABLE 3.1 PROVINCIAL ASSISTANCE TO LOCAL TRANSIT SYSTEMS PROVINCE NEWFOUNDLAND NEW BRUNSW1UK ALBERTA ONTARIO QUEBEC F O R M A L TRANSIT PROGRAM no no yes yes TYPE 0 F A S S I S T A N C E OPER A TIN G a s s i s t a n c e t o one c i t y . Annual grant o f $ 4 . 0 0 / c a p i t a / " annum t o maximum of $325,000/year. u n c o n d i t i o n a l grants to m u n i c i p a l i t i e s based on pro r a t a m u n i c i p a l expen. Grants t o two c i t i e s estimated to be $215,000 i n 1976. CAPI TAL no d i s t i n c t i o n made OTHE R 50$ o p e r a t i n g sub-s i d y t o maximum o f $3.33/eapita/year f o r 10 A l b e r t a c i t i e s e l i g i b l e . 1976 grants estimated t o be $3.5 m i l l i o n . no d i s t i n c t i o n made between 13*% t o 25$ grants toward p u b l i c t r a n s i t o p e r a t i n g c o s t s (not d e f i c i t s ) between 45% t o 55% subsidy toward op-e r a t i n g d e f i c i t s de-pendent upon popula-t i o n o f s e r v i c e a r e a . $16,130,000 annual grants to ten A i b t . c i t i e s . ($7.5 m i l l i o n t o Edmonton and Calg. Funds need not be used i n any one year. 75% c a p i t a l subsidy f o r e l i g i b l e c a p i t a l expenses. between 10% and 30% subsidy f o r purchase of t r a n s i t buses. Up to 1/3 f i n a n c i n g of a c q u i s t i o n costs o f p r i v a t e f i r m s . 60% f i n a n c i n g o f Montreal metro. no d i s t i n c t i o n made no d i s t i n c t i o n made 2/3 costs o f t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s and demonstration p r o j e c t s t o maximum c o n t r i b u t i o n o f $300,000/year. 100% f i n a n c i n g o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s i ' 45 3.5 TRANSPORTATION PLANS A number of recent transportation plans in Canada which emphasis transit were reviewed. In general, most of the plans indicate that several alternative transportation and, in some cases, land use, alternatives were formulated and then assessed against a number of c r i t e r i a . There exists considerable variation between studies in terms of the actual objectives which the transportation system is designed to meet and also the process by which objectives were determined. Recent studies do reflect the widening of basic transportation goals. There is however, no universally accepted manner of choosing objectives or c r i t e r i a . On this point, Hutchinson (1974, P.303 ) notes ... " ... A generally accepted method of evaluation for urban transportation projects does not exist at the present time." In Vancouver, the "Kelly Report" in 1972 formed the basis for the recent expansion in Vancouver's regional transit services. The technical studyf, for the report was undertaken by a consultant. Specific objectives for the technical report were apparently formulated by the technical staff. The report noted n ... i t is necessary to specify what objectives the programme seeks to optimize. The reasons most frequently cited for government investment in transit include: -provision of more efficient means of moving people in medium and high density t r a f f i c situations than the auto affords; -assurance of a reasonable minimum level of mobility for those without full-time access to ears; -minimize the impact of transport activities on the landscape; and -u t i l i z e the potential development impact of . T ^ transportation systems to influence land use," Strategic or long-range transportation studies, which seek to determine the level of investment between different modes, are guided by a similar set of objectives. In Halifax, for example, a recently developed plan sets out a preferred land use plan and formulates a transportation system capable of accomadating that land use plan. Specific objectives which guided the formulation of alternatives included: 11. Brian E. Sullivan, Preliminary Plan for the Immediate  Improvement to Public Transportation in Greater  Vancouver., (Vancouver, Spatial Dynamics, 1972) 47 l a . To achieve a strong urban core of high environmental quality, pedestrian in nature and human in scale. lb. To achieve a compact urban area. 13. To create a diverse suburban environment with secondary focuses 2 . To promote efficient movement of people at the least public and private cost. 3. To maintain present levels of noise and a i r pollution. In Toronto, no attempt was made at the onset of a recent study to explicitly define the objectives which would guide the study. It was f e l t that the very general goals which typically are formulated in such studies were not necessarily meaningful. Instead, planners and engineers formulated four alternative transport systems, three of which emphasised transit. Assessment of each alternative involved estimating the performance and impact implications of each alternative against a multi-faceted l i s t of issue areas. No attempt was made to weight particular aspects of the evaluatory c r i t e r i a . The intent of the study was to present a number of feasible land use/transportation options to accountable representatives, together with appropriately presented information and allow them to make implicit tradeoffs 12. Halifax, Nova Scotia, Metro Area Planning Committee, Proposed Transportation Policy and Plan (Halifax-Da rtsmouth Metro Area, 1973) INDUSTRIAL W I N « " A C I HK3H DENSITY AT SUBWAY STATIONS AT mrtRMEtRATE CAPACITY T U N t I T STATIONS MEDIUM DENSITY ALONG ARTERIAL ROADS WITH TRANSIT L O W DCNstTY RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AMO TRANSPORTATION FIGURE 3.1 ELEMENTS OF RECOMMENDED LAND USE ' PLAN IN TORONTO  S O U R C E : Canad ian Institute of Planners. F P U R U M . ( Ottawa, February ,1977, p.9) between alternatives based on their individual values systems. Evaluatory information is to be generated in the following .13 areas : Description 1. Land use alternatives 2. Transportation alternatives 3. Land use/Transportation combinations T3T Royal Commission on Metropolitan Toronto, Transportation  Organization in Metropolitan Toronto (Background Report, April, 1975) ^ ' 49 Performance' 1. Travel Demand 2. Demand/Capacity Analysis 3. Performance of land use/transportation combinations Costs 1. Public Costs 2. Private Costs 3. Public Revenue U. Net Public Costs IMPACTS 1. Landuse/transportation interactions 2. Socio-Economic Effects 3. Environmental E f f e c t s 3.6 SUMMARY The conventional wisdom underlying the resurgence of urban public transit begins with the assumption that public transit can readily be a, substitute for a significant number of automobile tr i p s . Investment in public transit, according to this viewpoint, has, in the past, been less than optimal due to the failure of analysts and public policy makers to appreciate the magnitude" of social costs attributable to wide-spread urban automobile use and to incorporate these factors into formal evaluation processes. Following this line of reasoning, increased investment in transit is expected to reduce the total volume of t r a f f i c in urban areas (or, at least to slow i t s growth). This reduction in t r a f f i c is predicted to: 1. result in more livable cities through reduction in the concomitant impacts of automobiles such as a i r pollution, t r a f f i c noise and unsightly highway and parking f a c i l i t i e s . 2. reduce the need to construct expensive automobile f a c i l i t i e s such as bridges, urban highways, and a r t e r i a l streets. The savings from not building these f a c i l i t i e s is often believed to more than offset the public cost of supporting transit. 3. save energy since transit is more energy efficient. 4. reduce the disruption caused through the construction of new highway f a c i l i t i e s im established urban residential and commercial areas. The new emphasis upon public transit w i l l also enable social objectives to be furthered* S p e c i f i c a l l y , i t i s expected that: 5. the subsidization of t r a n s i t by the public sector w i l l r e s u l t i n substantial benefits to accrue to lower incomed groups. 6.. Those people without access to an automobile or who do not wish to operate an automobile w i l l be guaranteed some minimum l e v e l of mobility. F i n a l l y , the planning of public transportation f a c i l i t i e s can be consciously integrated with urban land use planning. Transit can be used, i t i s believed, to influence physical land development through the provision of massive and focus edfci a c c e s s i b i l i t y to certain areas. A t y p i c a l public goal seeks to: 7. Protect established land values, investment, and domi-nance of the central area and/or promote compact devel-opments, both r e s i d e n t i a l and commercial, i n other parts of the urban region. These then, are the underlying factors which appear responsible f o r the renewed in t e r e s t i n public transportation How i s t r a n s i t expected to meet these l o f t y and laudable goals? What has t r a n s i t ' s track record been i n the past? These are the questions of Chapter Four to which we now turn. CHAPTER 4 T R A N S I T AND TRANSIT GOALS: T H E ACCUMULATING EVIDENCE 4.1 INTRODUCTION In Chapter Three, contemporary objectives for trans-i t , as seen by public policy makers and revealed in recent transportation studies were articulated. Current goals for transit require that i t successfully compete with p r i -vate automobiles in the urban travel market. In this way, i t is hoped the perceived impacts from automobiles can be reduced. Furthermore there i s an implicit f e e l -ing among policy makers that increased investment in tran-s i t is the least costly means to meet future urban travel demands. It is hoped the conscious planning of transit f a c i l i t i e s can be accomplished so as to focus service to particular groups who are perceived to be in greatest need of service. Finally, policy makers assume i t is possible to influence regional land use developments through particular transit route configurations. In this Chapter, the characteristics of mass transit are explored. A good deal of evidence has been accumula-ted. What does this have to say about transit's a b i l i t y to meet current objectives? Such an understanding i s not purely of academic interest. A better appreciation of the circumstances and situations where transit appears ? to work and where i t does not f a c i l i t a t e s a c r i t i c a l re-view of c r i t e r i a which are currently being used to moni-tor and evaluate transit. The Chapter i s divided into three main sections. The f i r s t section examines transit and i t ' s relationship to social objectives. A second section gives c r i t i c a l attention to the effect of transit upon urban development. Finally, the question of transit and i t ' s role in a nat-ional energy conservation strategy is reviewed. 54 4.2 TRANSIT AS A SOCIAL SERVICE " There i s an imperative need to rede-fine the fundamental nature of urban mass t r a n s i t services and to redefine the systems that provide these services as systems that d e l i v e r e s s e n t i a l s o c i a l services to the users and to the rest of the commu-nit y . " (Tomazinis, 1972, p.46) In Chapter Three, i t was demonstrated that t r a n s i t was perceived to be a worthwhile welfare device by policy makers. Large public subsidies are supported, i n part, on these grounds. The provision of t r a n s i t services, i t i s believed, w i l l cause substantial benefits to accrue to less f o r -tunate members of society i n the form of increased mo-b i l i t y and access to a wider range of urban opportunities. Some believe that t r a n s i t w i l l a f f e c t a positive r e d i s t r i f bution of income.. It i s to these issues which we now turn. The benefits and costs of transportation i n general and t r a n s i t i n p a r t i c u l a r are not evenly spread geograph-i c a l l y but tend to be l o c a l i z e d . A policy which increases aggregate a c c e s s i b i l i t y does not necessarily lead to im-provements f o r a l l groups. Indeed, incremental improve-ments i n the transportation system can act u a l l y worsen the condition of those groups most in need of improve-ment. Perhaps the most often cited case where this is said to have taken place is where urban freeways carve up inner city neighborhoods.(Wheeler, 1974, Chapter 4) The Concept of Transporation Equity The demand for transportation is a derived demand. The benefits obtained from urban transportation are p r i -marily derived from the ease or cost with which an indi-vidual can travel from a given origin to a desired desti-nation. Increasing the ease with which individuals can overcome the " f r i c t i o n of space" also increases the range of opportunities open to those individuals. In economic evaluation, these benefits are typically expressed in terms of time savings or improvements in accessibility. The inherent nature of transportation, however, is • to link up parts of the urban space. Hence, benefits are not spread evenly over the urban space. Figure 4.1 i l l -ustrates this point. Here, i t is assumed that economic costs are spread equally throughout the society. Major benefits accrue to those living close to the f a c i l i t y . 56 < O Q NET ECONOMC r..\ BENEFITS .-.! A ::::vc-" -:-.:\ ."•->: :-vi>... .';\ , NET E C O N O M I C ^ C O S T S \ DISTANCE F R O M FACILITY FI GURE 4.1 . HYPOTHETICAL COSTS AND BENEFITS OF TRANSPORTATION FACILITY source: adapted from James Cv Wheeler, The Urban Circulation Noose., (New York, Duxbury Press, 1974, p. 9hf 57 In r e a l i t y , the costs of urban transportation are not spread equally over the urban area. A complex arrange-ment of user charges and public subsidies cause groups and individuals to pay d i f f e r i n g amounts towards the main-tenance of the system. F i n a l l y , the poorly understood operation of the urban land market makes an ultimate deter-.1 mination of costs and benefits d i f f i c u l t . Despite these formidable t h e o r e t i c a l and operational d i f f i c u l t i e s , attempts have been made by some to estimate the magnitude of the .2 d i s t r i b u t i o n a l consequences of transportation. E x p l i c i t recognition of these costs and benefits and the manner in which they are distributed has come to be known as transportation equity. The case can be well made that the d i s t r i b u t i o n a l consequences of transportation decisions should be con-sidered i n the planning process. For a complex set of reasons - many of which are i n s t i t u t i o n a l and non-trans-portation related - a number of groups have become disadvantaged. 1. For a review of elementary urban land economics see Section 4.3. 2. See, f o r example, Bergman, Joel, e t a l . , Development  of a Methodology fo r ah Assessment of BARTys Impact"  Upon Economics and Finance Plan. (Metropolitan Transpor-tation Commission, Berkeley, 1975); J.S. Dajani, "In-come D i s t r i b u t i o n a l Effects of the Atlanta Transit System", TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD.(Washington, Research Record No. 516, 1974, pp.35-46); John K. Mc-Koy, Transportation and Equity: Toward a Framework f o r D i s t r i b u t i o n a l Analysis, (Association for Bay Area Govern-ments, 1973) 58 in terms of their a b i l i t y to move quickly throughout the urban region. This group includes the young, the elderly, the poor, the physically handicapped and those without access to an automobile, The direct results of low mo-b i l i t y are a reduced range of urban opportunities access-ible. The more indirect, but far more serious consequences may be increased crime, unemployment, and social insta-.3 b i l i t y , ; . - ~ Clearly, transportation has only limited potential in dealing with what are fundamental problems of society. The mere provision of accessible transportation will.not guarantee that disadvantaged groups w i l l gain employment. Nor should i t be considered a solution to complex, social problems. At best, i t can only be considered a short-term measure designed to alleviate existing inequities and make further progress feasible in other sectors. 3, Inadequate^public transportation was claimed to be one of the main contributing factors preventing black inner city residents from obtaining jobs and education. A d i -rect link was suggested between the avai l a b i l i t y of public transportation and the Watts riots. See, J.M.Mc-Cone, Violence in the City - An End or a Beginning, (Governors Commission on the Los Angeles Riots, Sac-ramento, 1965.) The documented evidence that a significant portion of society suffers from, a transportation disadvantage i s large. In the United States, a group.estimated between 70 and 100 million are said to be transportation disadvantaged. According to the 1971 U. S. census, 20 percent of a l l households were without an automobile. For those with incomes under $3000 peraannum, 46 percent of households were earless. (Saltzman and Ameedee, 1976, pp. 1-2) In Chapter 3, i t was demonstrated that policy makers expect transit to provide a measure of mobility to the transportation disadvantaged in urban areas. Hence, the case for explicit recognition of the distributional impli-cations of transit planning is even greater than in con-.4 ventional trans porta tional planning. It i s not sufficient merely to provide transit service in an urban area and expect the needs oig the transportation disadvantaged to be met. Existing services may not be tailored to meet the needs of lower income people. 4* Some have made quite persuasive arguments that the most cost-effective method of providing mobility for the transportation disadvantaged would be to provide them with private vehicles. For one such argument, see, Douglas B. Gurin, "Improving Job Access for the Urban Poor", HIGHWAY RESEARCH RECORD. (Washington, Report No. 473, 1973, PP. 16-2?) 60 Wohl notes that much of the rapidly increasing levels of public subsidy are being used to finance costly sub-urban t r a n s i t services designed to carry affluent workers to downtown o f f i c e s - a group which at best represents f i v e to ten percent of the population, (Wohl, 1970, pp. -21-45- ) A s i m i l a r conclusion has been reached by Webber i n his study of the, BART impact i n San Francisco. A l -though the poor pay a larger share of t h e i r income to support BART, rider s h i p i s skewed toward the wealthy. "The percentage of income paid to provide tax support for each ride taken i s 40 times greater for an i n d i v i d u a l i n the lowest income group than f o r one i n the highest income group," (Webber, 1976,P»23.) TABLE (i^> , INCOMES OF BART RIDERS RIDERS AS A % OF % DISTRIBUTION POPULATION IN % DISTRIBUTION IN BART DISTRICTS FAMILY INCOME OF BART RIDERS BART DISTRICT IN INCOME GROUPS Under $5,000 10 .5 22.9 2.62 $5,000- 6,999 6.6" 9.8 3.98 $7,000= 9*999 12.6 16.9 4.07 $10,000-11^,999 2U6 25.6 4.83 $15,000- 24,999 30.6 . 19.3 9.12 Over $25,000 17.8 5.6 18.26 100hQ 100.0 SOURCE: Webber, 1976; Why is existing transit service not utilized to a greater extent by the transportation disadvantaged? In many cases, the low density of places of low s k i l l employ-ment prevents economically efficient service even allow-ing for large operational d e f i c i t s * Manufacturing employ-ment has been decentralizing to suburban areas. What service is available in these areas is often oriented toward suburban residences rather than employment centres. Historically, transit management has seen i t ' s task as providing radial service to downtown areas. Hence, much of the transportation disadvantaged are not given the opportunity to u t i l i z e transit. Some have suggested the,problem is one of a management failure to pursue appropriate goals. (Falcocchio,1973.) Others suggest the poor have no p o l i t i c a l clout. Decision makers large-ly ignore these groups. (Wheeler,1974.) S t i l l others claim the problem is largely technological. (Salesman and Ameedee,1976.) Having indicated that the overall effect of transit on income distribution could be regressive, and that there is a good possibility that transit may not be serving those most in need of service, what would be an approp-riate policy for transit management or policy makers? 62 At the least, some crude accounting of the gross costs and benefits attributable to various groups would be called for. Armed with this information, policy makers could make reasoned decisions concerning appropriate pricing and subsidy issaes. ("McKoy»1973.) Secondly, a concerted effort could be made to iden-t i f y "left-out" groups and to plan improvements with a view to providing these groups with immediate benefits. (Appleyard,1971.) In some cases this might c a l l for extensions of regular service. It might also require a policy which called for the acquisition of more access-ible transit vehicles. In some cases, i t might c a l l for specialized service. Whatever strategy is tried, i t is clear that some type of monitoring w i l l be required to assess the effec-tiveness of various measures. Clearly, this w i l l involve more than simply counting passengers. Yet, as w i l l be demon-strated, in Chapter Five, this is now the norm. Before we arrive at that point, however, we must explore other facets of transit's new goals. 4.3 TRANSIT AND THE URBAN STRUCTURE "... i n the f i n a l report of the (Transpor-t a t i o n Plan Review, considerable emphasis i s placed on encouraging decentralized forms of land use development (that i s the cre-ation of regional sub-centers that tend to reduce the overriding importance of the central area) and transportation systems that would encourage the implementation of such development p o l i c i e s . Wherever possible, the Transportation Plan Review emphasized increasing dependence upon public transportation and to a large ex-tent gave low p r i o r i t y to road' improve-ments and the construction of new urban expressways." (Ontario Royal Commission on Metropolitan Toronto, 1975,p.9.). Increasingly, t r a n s i t investment i s often j u s t i f i e d based on I t ' s expected., impact upon urban development patterns. According to the normally glossy reports, t r a n s i t i s to be used as a " p o s i t i v e development t o o l " by those responsible for broad brush, metropolitan land use planning. The argument that t r a n s i t has a major role to play i n land use planning i s complex. On the one hand, a . presumption i s made that public policy makers and planners can r e a l i s t i c a l l y define a desirable land use pattern -at least i n a broad manner. Secondly, i t assumes that land use developments are sensitive to the transport system and that these linkages can be forseen. Finally, and most relevant to this thesis, i t assumes that parti-cular forms of urban development can be expected to evolve dependant on the mode of transport emphasized. In the case of transit, i t is generally supposed that a rela-tively more compact form of development w i l l evolve than would evolve i f private automobile transport was empha-sized. These last two arguments w i l l be the subject bf this section. LOCATION THEORY Theoretical work suggests the link between land use developments and transport is explained by location theory. A large body of empirical evidence, however, suggests transport is only one of a myriad of factors responsible for urban development. Furthermore, different types of development (eg, residential vs commercial vs industrial) are influenced by different factors. In the case of residential development, for example, recent evidence suggests environmental factors such as neighborhood amen-it i e s are far more important than transport as an explan-atory variable through which residential deyelopment can be explained and predicted, (Michelson, 1972; Richard-son, 1971, Chapter 1.) With these provisos, the impor-tance of classical and neo-classical location theory to the genesis of current thought and emerging land use plans cannot be understated. What follows then, is the theor-etica l , albeit simplified, foundation of modern location theory. In the classical theory, firms and households are seen as competitors for en unusual commodity which is called location. In the theory's early development deal-ing with agricultural patterns of spatial organization, von Th'unen presented the elementary case where site rents were exclusively a function of a location's proximity to markets,(Hall, 1966.) In the classical model, the maximum distance from the market where production w i l l take place is that distance where transportation costs just equal economic profit.. where: p m = market price m Pc pc -production cost r = transport rate OH ECONOMIC RENT wmzr> r^ V^TRANSPOR T. COSTS PRDUCTION COST 4 max FIGURE 4.2 DIAGRAMMATIC REPRESENTATION OF CLASSICAL LOCATION THEORY SOUrce: conceptualization by author Since sites closer to market are more profitable, owners w i l l be able to demand and obtain higher economic rents for their use (for simplification, linear transport charges are assumed). In the one commodity market, the resulting rent structure is cone shaped as represented in Figure ECONOMIC RENT d m a x market ^mnx F I G U R E 4.3 RENT C O N E IN PURE O N E COMMODITY MARKET From this simple model, several empirically observed phenomena can be deduced. First, an increase in transpor-tation efficiency w i l l cause the rent cone to flatten out as areas further from the market become competitive. Secondly, i f output per unit of land is allowed to vary, then locations closer to market w i l l presumably have' highe: intensities of land use. If more than one type of crop is assumed, the class-i c a l model predicts that those crops which can yield the highest profit w i l l be produced at a given location. The particular location of one type of crop in relation to another wilili be determined by the slope of the rent curve and the market price. Those crops with steep rent curves w i l l always displace crops with more shallow rent curves provided market price is high enough. Hence, mar ket forces w i l l generate a series of land uses as shown in Figure ^-4;* DISTA NCE^  F IGURE 4.4 ECONOMIC RENT CURVES FOR COMPETING LAND U S E S The elementary theory has been expanded substantially by many. Perhaps the most satisfactory theory is pre-sented by Alonso. (I960) In this model, a family of bid-rent curves exist for each user @f land such that each is indifferent to location anywhere along the curve. Equilibrium rent is determined by comparing bids of po-tential users and choosing the highest. For non-profit maximizing users (eg. residential- land use), bid-rent functions w i l l reflect individual satisfaction rather than profits. Alonso presents the case where individ-ual's value of space is traded off against transport costs to determine residential location. Empirical observation .5 suggests the process is considerably more complex. The theoretical model offered by Alonso, however, has not been n u l l i f i e d . In i t ' s pure sense, the model is not restricted to a single attribute. Nor does i t attempt to shed any light on the nature of specific attributes. Rather the Alonso model is an important statement as to the principles of the urban land market. % For a critique of the theoretical basis for the Alonso model and other tradeoff models, see, Harry W. Richard-son, Urban Economics (Penguin Books, 1971,pp.19-24,) A substantial body of l i t e r a t u r e supports the gener-a l observations of the Alonso model. Clark(1951) has observed that r e s i d e n t i a l density declines i n a logar-ithmic function from the center of the c i t y supporting the notion that " c l o s e - i n " locations w i l l have more inten sive land use. Land values follow much the same pattern. Berry (1971) has shown land values i n Chicago radiate out from the C.B.D. along major transportation corridors with peaks at important interchanges. Business centers have developed at these peaks. One attempt to conceptualize the t r a n s i t induced development process, u t i l i z i n g much of elementary loca-t i o n theory has been formulated by Hamburg (1970)• In his model, Hamburg assumes the stock conditions and assum ptions of economic theory. He begins with a f l a t even plain with no development. The region i s divided, into a series of equal sized zones. Each zone i s assumed to have equal attractiveness i n terms of non-transpor-tation factors, (site, neighborhood, and i n s t i t u t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ) . Alternative transport systems are then superimposed upon the region. Development i s then a l l o -cated to each zone based on the nature of the a c c e s s i -b i l i t y offered by a l t e r n a t i v e transport systems. Sub-s t a n t i a l differences are predicted to occur i f the urban , transport i s either e n t i r e l y dependent upon automobiles or upon t r a n s i t . (Figures 4-5a and 4-5b) Once a c i t y has developed ah automobile network, however, the existence of r a d i a l t r a n s i t systems are predicted to cause l i t t l e development impact.(Figure 4-5c). The model suggests there are reasons to doubt whether conditions which h i s t o r i c a l l y were associated with t r a n s i t are s t i l l applicable to modern conditions. This warning, moreover, i s given s o l e l y based on a c c e s s i -b i l i t y factors. LOCATION THEORY & SUMMARY While there i s empirical support for some of the more general observations of neo-classical location theory, there has been only limited success i n attempts to "oper-a t i o n a l i z e " such models. A host of factors account for the complex workings of the urban development process; transportation i s only one of these factors. Other v a r i -ables such as s i t e , neighborhood and i n s t i t u t i o n a l char-a c t e r i s t i c s are d i f f i c u l t to integrate into the various models although they are not incompatible with the various 72 Tigure 4.5( a) Development pattern for population of \500p00 served by automobile network figure 4.5(b) .Development pattern for population of 1,500,000 served by tranpit network • figure4.S (c ) Development pattern for population of 1,500p00 served f i r s t by transit then by automobile network FIGURE A. 5 CONCEPTUAL IMPACT OR TRANSPORT UPON URBAN DEVELOPMENT SOURCE:Paul Drewe, Impact of the Structure and Extent  of Urban Development on the Choice of Modes of  Transport: The Case of the Medium Size Conurbation.t (European Conferences of Ministers* of Transport, OECD, Paris, 1975, p. 39) theories. Commenting upon the shortcomings of the exist-ing theories, a recent.review concluded... "... the inconclusive nature of. the work in this area can be attributed to the myriad of significant problems concerning not only what factors to incorporate into the analysis but the precise way in which to do so." (Alcaly, 1976 p.51.) Existing statements of classical location theory begin with simplified assumptions. . The most workable, statements of existing theory assume unrealistically simplified conditions: a centralized city with a single nucleus of employment, perfect land markets and homogen-ous site conditions. Agglomerating forces and i n s t i t u -tional constraints are ignored. Existing theories give no guidance as to how heterogenity between different types of land use (residential, r e t a i l , office, manu-facturing) should be handled. However, even when a l l the simplified conditions are assumed theoretical work sug-gests the implementation of rapid, modern transit in contemporary urban areas (with mature automobile networks in place) is iikely to have l i t t l e development impact. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Earlier portions of this Chapter demonstrated the complex theoretical relationship between transport and accessibility and between accessibility and land use. Some general principles were developed which allow some inference to be made concerning the nature of this rela-tionship. How well does historical evidence substantiate these general principles? It i s to these questions which we now. turn* Empirical evidence clearly attests to the effect particular transport technologies have had on city devel-opment. The technology of the railroad and streetcar facilitated the development of suburbs at a time when crowded cit i e s made urban l i f e intolerable. Yeates com-ments ... "(T)he electric streetcar consequently made i t possible for the population of urban areas to spread out and thereby to decrease residential densities. For the population to spread out, however, land had to be provided and serviced, and homes ahd to be built. The innovations of the t r o l l y therefore led to great i n -creases in land sales, land values, and land speculation, particularly along the areas adjacent to the main transportation arteries." (Yeates and Garner, 1971,pp. 218-219.) S i m i l a r l y , the development of the i n t e r n a l combust-ion engine gave further impetus to the decentralization of c i t i e s . Whereas the streetcar f a c i l i t a t e d the r a d i a l growth of the c i t i e s , the automobile made possible an even greater expansion of the c i t y and permitted the spread of population between major corridors. Further, the de-ce n t r a l i z a t i o n of the c i t y has not been limited to r e s i -d e n t i a l land use. Increasingly, commercial a c t i v i t y and industry have also migrated away from the central core. While the new technology of t r a n s i t and automobile f a c i l i t a t e d major changes i n the i n t e r n a l structure of the c i t y , they were not s u f f i c i e n t conditions. Rising r e a l incomes and the new process of mass production made such developments economically f e a s i b l e . New transpor-t a t i o n technologies simply made such developments tech-n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e . The importance of viewing the h i s t o r i c a l context , . i n which a type of development occurred should not be t understated. Recent statements (see Chapter Three) by policy makers imply that the provision of a p a r t i c u l a r , type of a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l give r i s e to development patterns which were associated with that sane provision in the past. Such statements may be invalid. With particular-reference to rapid transit, Lash warns... "By the time a metropolitan area begins to seriously consider adding a rapid tran-system, much of i t ' s transportation system,-in the form of an extensive network of roads and streets is established.... Thus the network may be less of a ^cp^rjolTiiig influence in determining the form of urban development than is sometimes imagined.. .,"•• (Lash, 1967 , p. 193) Blumenfeld has made substantially the same observe-ti©n. Noting that density distributions in Hamburg, Ger-many are practically identical with those in Metropoli-tan Toronto despite the increased transit orientation of the former, he concludes... "(W)ith a l l parts of a metropolitan region accessible to motor vehicles, presence or absence of other means of transporta-tion have only marginal impact upon devel-opment patterns." (Blumenfeld, 1974, p. 193) While an increased transit orientation is not lik e l y to affect a large change in development patterns,, clear-ly i t w i l l have some impact. What cannwe expect w i l l be the nature of that impact? Richardson (1971>PP.15-16.) has put forth the thesis that access in areas with mature urban. transport systems takes on a secondary r o l e ; a l i m i t i n g constraint. Injections of addi t i o n a l increments of a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l have an effect only i f the improve-ment i s substantial and only i f other non-transport fac-tors are favourable for development. Batty (1974), for example, believes improvements of r a d i a l l y focused tran-s i t a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l have an ef f e c t only i f congestion i s severe i n central areas. Paradoxically, the nature of the impact w i l l be more sprawl and a greater growth inrregional demands for t r a v e l . This w i l l r e s u l t through increased concentrations of firms which can take advan-tage of central agglomeration economies and,,, at the same time, increased decentralization of r e s i d e n t i a l land uses. Similar conclusions have also been reached by Putnam (1974) and by Dewees (1974)* Meyer, a f t e r comparing empirical records of land use i n a number of American c i t i e s could find no d i f f e r -ence between c i t i e s with highly developed t r a n s i t systems and those without. In his words...- , "... the patterns of land use, population growth, employment location and residen-t i a l choice recorded i n recent years by the most t r a n s i t oriented American c i t i e s have e s s e n t i a l l y mirrored those of other c i t i e s with strong highway orientation." (Meyer, l°64p. 360) TRANSIT IMPACT STUDIES Changing the nature of the transportation system may have f a r reaching consequences. Impact studies attempt to sort those consequences which can be attributed to the system change from those that would happen without the change. A clear understanding of both the transpor-t a t i o n and the larger urban system i s therefore prere-q u i s i t e to proper impact estimation. In many cases, th i s l e v e l of understanding does mot e x i s t . Impact studies can be conducted 'a p r i o r i ' - before the system change - or 'ex post' - a f t e r the change has been introduced. I f the study has been conducted 'a p r i o r i ' , then the analyst attempts to predict consequen-ces. I f the study i s conducted 'ex post', then the analyst attempts to document e f f e c t s . Impact studies are common-ly conducted befofce projects. Indeed, a lengthy report detailing the anticipated consequences of specific projects has become an integral part of the project planning pro-cess. Ex post studies are rare. They are usually conduc-ted as academic exercises. In recent years, l i t t l e attempt has been made to document the effects of transit upon the internal struc-ture of the city after a particular change has been made. What studies have been conducted are typically concern-ed with rapid transit^ an extreme and atypical form of public transportation. Moreover, rapid r a i l impact studies are of dubious authorship; often they are conducted by agencies with vested interests in the outcome. On the bright side, a major effort is now underway to document the effects of the BART system in San Francisco, Of the North American studies concerned with the impact of transit upon urban development, perhaps the Toronto study is most frequently cited. The study, con-ducted by the Toronto Transit Commission, was concerned with the effect of the Commission's subway upon urban development in Toronto. Records' of real property values, as indicated through assessed valuation, were compared for properties adjacent to the subway with the city as a whole. For taxation purposes, the city is divided into 40 d i s t r i c t s , 14 of which are adjacent to the subway. Changes in the amount and rate of growth of assessed value were then compared over time. Table 4-1 presents the study findings. ffOSFAL CITY ADJACENT TO SUBWAY YEAR J.950-53 ,1954-56 T957-59 INCREASE % $101,426,000 7.5 127,721,000 8.5 212,253,000 13*5 INCREASE % $48,557,000 9.2 69,846,000 12.1 121,521,000 18.8 TABLE .4-^ LAND VALUE INCREASE IN TORONTO SOURCE: Toronto Transit Commission, Transit  in Toronto (Toronto, 1967,p.32.) Subsequent investigation by independent researchers confirmed the T.T.C.'s general findings. Heenan (1965, p.217.) claims that 48.5$ of a l l high rise apartments and 90% of a l l new office concentration occurred within a five minute walking distance of subway stations. Bourne*s res ear cM 1970, p.30.) indicated the bulk of the city's 81 new development was limited to 5 of the 40 taxation d i s t -r i c t s , 4 of which were adjacent to the subway. These five areas (which included the CBD) accounted for $3% of a l l new office buildings and 51% of all.new apartments. The d i f f i c u l t y of separating development effects which have been induced by a new transit f a c i l i t y from those that would' have occurred anyway have already been allud-ed to. On this point, Lash is emphatic. "The benefits attributable to urban trans-portation f a c i l i t i e s through increased real estate values are often oversimpli-fied and misleading. Such benefits can be determined only after searching analysis and not simply through the sales exper-ience of properties located along* the new f a c i l i t y , " (1967,p.192.) In the case of the Toronto f a c i l i t y , there are several factors which on the surface would appear to be at least as important as the subway. The bulk of office and comm-ercial development occurred within the historical commer-c i a l center of Toronto. Similar construction booms have been noted in other Canadian c i t i e s . There is reason to believe such construction booms could be attributed to a general increase in service employment. Between 1950 and I960 (about the same period as the Toronto study) white collar employment in North America increased by about 33$. The growth in blue collar employment amounted to only 5%. (Denials,1975,p.31.) In Great Britain, offic employment increased by 40 percent between 1951 and 1961 in a period when total employment grew by only 7 percent. (Goddard, 1973. p.4.) In San Francisco, a similar boom in downtown office construction has been attributed to the effect of the BART systems During the 12 year period following the decision to build BART, 35 high rise office buildings were constructed in the San Francises CBD comprising some 18,5 Million square feet of office space. (Webber, 1976,p.13.) New evidence from the BART Impact Study, however, questions the role of BART in influencing the decisions of developers building offices. On a per capita basis other cities have experienced similar con-struction booms in new office buildings. Houston, for example, a city decidedly oriented toward automobile tra -vel, experienced a greater boom on a per capita basis. (Figure ;4 r6)" 5 0 0 0 -a o a. I cn v cc o o o cr in 4 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -2000-1000-i Chicago • Dallas i Seattle i Phoenix Los Angeles San Francisco Houston Denver FIGURE 4.6 PER CAPITA OFFICE CONSTRUCTION IN SELECTED AMERICAN CITIES source: adopted from Melvin M. Webber, The BART  Experience - What Have We Learned. Berkeley, Univ. of C a l i f o r n i a , I n s t i t u t e f o r Urban and Regional Development, 1976, p. 12) In Philadelphia, Gannon and Dear (1975), attribute the observed decentralization of offices in the Phila-delphia SMSA to the effects of the Lindenwold Rail Tran-s i t line. Evidence in this case is c'shaXy.*)' The author's note an increase in office employment in adjoining sub-urbs not served by the f a c i l i t y was greater than areas served but are at a loss to explain why. "It is important to note that the speed-line is not located within Montgomery County. This study did not investigate the reasons for the high annual rate of growth in office space in this county." (Gannon and Dear, 1975,p.231.) In both Toronto and San Francisco, suburban commer-c i a l development has occurred in only a few areas. There© is not a widespread ^tendencytoward suburban commercial developmentsaround stations although in the case of the San Francisco f a c i l i t y , this was a major goal. (Webber, 1976,p.15«) Decisions to cut construction costs, led BART planners to locate stations in areas apart from exist-ing commercial centers and to surround the station with large parking lots. Potential developers, who may have wished-to locate near BART, were faced with the prospect of large walking distances from the stations. Rather than locate near the transit station, they have apparently opted t o l o c a t e w i t h i n the e x i s t i n g commercial area. In the case o f r e s i d e n t i a l development, there i s even l e s s reason to b e l i e v e t h a t focussed t r a n s i t access-i b i l i t y has any e f f e c t on development p a t t e r n s . L i t t l e r e s i d e n t i a l development has occurred i n the proximity of t r a n s i t s t a t i o n s i n e i t h e r San Francisco (Webber,1976, p.16.) or P h i l a d e l p h i a (Gannon and Dear,1975,p.223.)\ In Toronto, s u b s t a n t i a l claims have been made concerning the e f f e c t of the c i t y subway upon apartment developments. There has been no c l e a r demonstration of any a c t u a l caus-a l i t y , however, and some doubt, the claims o f the T.T.C. Hutchinson, f o r example, notes... " I n Toronto, the subway i s a l s o c i t e d f r e q u e n t l y as a major determinant i n u r -ban form. The c l u s t e r of high d e n s i t y apartments concentrated around the Yonge S t r e e t subway s t a t i o n i s pointed t o as evidence of the d e s i r a b l e impact of sub-way c o n s t r u c t i o n on urban development...." "A recent study by the M e t r o p o l i t a n Toron-to planning Board has shown th a t the change i n r e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t y i n each of the s i x -teen planning d i s t r i c t s observed over two recent two year periods may be explained almost e x c l u s i v e l y by the amount of unused land a v a i l a b l e a t the s t a r t o f the a n a l y s i s p e r i o d . This observation simply r e f l e c t s the f a c t that major apartment developers are dihter^est.ed* only i n the l o c a t i o n s where r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e t r a c t s of land may be assem-bled which may be zoned f o r high d e n s i t y development." (Hutchinson, 1972,P»192) 86 Does transit then, have any real impact upon the internal structure of the city? The accumulating evi-dence appears to be inconclusive in that, given different situations and circumstances either answer can be at least partially substantiated. While i t is clear that transit has l i t t l e impact upon residential location, (other factors such as neighborhood amenities being far more important), i t has been shown to be of some impor-tance to office and r e t a i l location. Classical and Neo-classiEal location theory suggest some general prin c i -ples which are relevant, but due to their generality and inconclusiveness, they do not lend themselves to rigor-ous testing or definition. On the whole, the greatest body of relevant literature appears to support the po-sition that the overall effect of transit upon the spat-i a l structure of cities is likely to be small. The role of transit in regional land use planning is seen then as supportive. Other more traditional land use implementing policies such as zoning, subdivision control, etc.,v are far more important. The relevance of the theory developed to date, however,.has s i g n i f i -cance to transportation planning and to transit manage-ment. What is called for, isaa means to insure that the developing transit infra-structure in cities is consistent 87 with the furtherance of regional land use policies. A mechanism whereby this co-ordination between transit service orientation and land use policies can be object-ively measured is desirable. This subject, however, must remain u n t i l Chapter Six, There are multiple goals guiding our emerging transit policy. In the next section we shall examine another. 4.4 TRANSIT AS AN ENERGY CONSERVATION MEASURE INTRODUCTION E x p l i c i t recognition of the energy implications of transportation has only recently been considered i n transportation planning. The need for such consideration has been underscored by the current uncertainties over the future a v a i l a b i l i t y and cost of energy i n general and petroleum i n p a r t i c u l a r . The implications of future energy shortages w i l l a f f e c t v i r t u a l l y every facet of .6 l i f e . This section w i l l concern i t s e l f with the short term p o t e n t i a l (say the next 20 years) of public trans-portation as one component of an energy conservation strategy. The present patterns of energy use i n urban mobility are the r e s u l t of complex interactions between national policy, technological development, and long term econom-i c trends. For many years, North America has followed a policy of cheap and p l e n t i f u l energy. This policy 6. See, f o r example, current proposals which c a l l f or a', s h i f t to a conserver society. Such a society would ultimately involve fundamental s h i f t s i n values and l i f e s t y l e s . has been intimately linked with the rapid growth which has characterized the Canadian economy i n post war years. That th i s growth was made possible, i n part, by a technol-ogy that made r e l a t i v e l y i n e f f i c i e n t use of energy, i s now generally accepted. The dilemma f o r the future i s to find ways to ude remaining energy reserves more e f f i -c i e n t l y without s a c r i f i c i n g s o c i a l and economic progress and to exploit new sources of energy which are econom-i c a l l y viable and environmentally sound. It i s within t h i s contextcthat t r a n s i t i s now pop-u l a r l y seen as one of the strategies with which we can conserve valuable energy. Furthermore, Chapter Three documented that t h i s b e l i e f was widely held among policy makers. In t h i s section, the potential of t r a n s i t as an energy conservation measure i s the subject of c r i t i -c a l review. THE, DEMAND FOR TRANSPORTATION ENERGY The demand f o r transportation energy i s a function of the demand for trasnportation services and the energy e f f i c i e n c y of the modes performing these services. There are two aspects of modal energy e f f i c i e n c y . F i r s t , d i f f -erent modes w i l l u t i l i z e d i f f e r i n g amounts of energy , , per vehicle mile of operation. Secondly, the r e l a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y of d i f f e r e n t modes w i l l be a function of the degree of u t i l i z a t i o n i n terms of passenger miles per vehicle mile of operation. Both of these factors should be c l e a r l y recognized i n any t r a n s i t monitoring mechanism. In Canada, energy expenditures f o r a l l types of transportation comprise about 25 percent of t o t a l energy .7 use. V i r t u a l l y a l l transportation energy used i s ob-tained from petroleum products. Transportation consump-t i o n comprises about 55 percent of a l l domestic petro-leum demand. (Yunker and Sinha, 1975«) Road transporta-t i o n accounts for almost 77 percent of transportation V : ' .8 energy use. Of the t o t a l gasoline used i n Canada about 32 percent i s sold i n r e t a i l trade i n Canada's twelve largest metropolitan areas where s l i g h t l y less than h a l f .9 of Canada's population l i v e s . This amount represents 7. Based on S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Detailed Energy Supply and De mand i n Canada (Publication #57-207,1973) Canadian ener-gy use t o t a l l e d 5,779,030 BillioBTU, Total Transportation use accounted f o r 1,460,920 B i l l i o n BTU. r .8. S t a t i s t i c s Canada (Pub. #57-207, 1973) Road Transportation accounted for 1,120,137 B i l l i o n BTU. 9. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Energy S t a t i s t i c s , R e t a i l Gasoline Sales By Metropolitan Area (Pub. #57-002,Vol.9,No.56,1973) Retail? gasoline consumption i n 12 Canadian Metro Areas consist-ed of 2,228,6*6 M i l l i o n Gallons. Total Road Gasoline used i n Canada consisted of 7,029.37;iMillion.Gallons. about 6 percent of t o t a l Canadian Energy Use or about .10 23 percent of the transportation energy used. Urban mass t r a n s i t i n Canada currently consumes about 47*5 m i l l i o n gallons of petroleum products and about 403 .11 m i l l i o n kilowatt hours of e l e c t r i c i t y . This amount of energy i s equivalent to about 2 percent of the gaso-t _ .. . • .12 l i n e sold i n the twelve largest im~§tVppglitan> areas. In recent years, the demand for petoleum products .13 has been growing at an annual rate of about 6.6 percent. Furthermore, most projections of future transportation energy demandf? p r e d i c t ^ a continued rapid rate of growth. (Yunker and Sinha, 1975, p.572.) As domestic and global reserves are depleted, future supply of f u e l a v a i l a b l e may become problematic. 10. BTU equivalent for t h i s amount of. gasoline i s appro-ximately 341,498 B i l l i o n BTU. 11. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Urban Transit (Publication # 53-003, Vol .23 , No.12). 12. BTU equivalent f o r t h i s amount of energy i s approx-imately 9,297 B i l l i o n BTU. 13. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, (Publication #; 57-207. )•$ Average growth rate f o r petroleum products for period 1960-1969. 92 MODAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY The energy used by the different transportation modes is comprised of capital energy used in the manu-facture of vehicles and guideways, and operating energy used to propel vehicles. In some cases, the amount of capital energy used to construct a transportation system may be as significant as the amount used to operate. It is reported, for example, that the energy used to construct the BART system in San Francisco is equivalent to about 44 percent of the energy used to operate i t .14 for the next f i f t y years. Estimates of the total energy requirements for var-ious modes are shown in Table '4'-3;_?; Comparisons of modal efficiency must also account for the differing degrees of u t i l i z a t i o n of the various modes. A city bus, foe example, uses much more energy per vehicle mile than does an automobile but also carries a greater average number of passengers. Hence, at some load factors, a bus maybbe more energy efficient than 14. See, Office of Technology Assessment, Energy, the Econ- omy and Mass Transit (United States Congress, Washing-ton, D.C., 1975.) TABLE 4-3 SUI.IRCF.: M.F. Fels, Comparative Energy Costs of Urban Transportation Systems, (Trans-portation Report 74-TR-2, Transportation TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER VEHICLE MILE FOR SEVERAL URBAN TRANSPORTATION MODES (expressed inK.W.H.) In d i v i d u a l contribution to energy use AUTO 3600 l b 2000 lb CITY BUS RAPID RAIL PRT BICYCLE WALK OPERATION 3.19 1.63 9.57 16.7 5.92 .042 .063 VEHICLE MANUFACTURE .3.9 .21 .30 .iv .40 .042 — GUIDEWAY MANUFACTURE • •03 .03 .09 .7 .02 .014 — TOTAL ENERGY PER VEHICLE MILE 3.61 1.87 9.96 17.8 6.34 .10 .063 a t y p i c a l automobile. As the load factor of the urban bus declines, there i s some point where an average loaded automobile becomes more energy e f f i c i e n t . For t h i s rea-son, comparisons of energy e f f i c i e n c y are commonly ex-pressed i n terms of energy use per passenger mile. Typ-i c a l ranges of the operating energy requirements of three modes are presented i n Figure 4-7. For p o l i c y purposes, the incremental change i n modal e f f i c i e n c y should be distinguished from an average measure of e f f i c i e n c y . As long as the service e l a s t i c i t y of t r a n s i t demand i s less than one, a given increase i n t r a n s i t serv-ice w i l l bring about a smaller percentage increase i n passenger demand. The need to consider the incremental energy use as opposed to the average useccan best be i l l u s t r a t e d by way of example. In 1972, Canadian t r a n s i t systems carried some 1,041 M i l l i o n annual riders and produced .15 261 M i l l i o n miles of service. By 1975, ridership had risen to 1,133 M i l l i o n riders while service miles .16 had increased to 303 M i l l i o n miles. I f the increase 15§ S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Urban Transit (Publication § 53-003, 1972.) 16. i b i d , 1975 FIGURE 4.7 MODAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY VS. VEHICLE UTILIZATION o O T source: adopted from Kenneth R. Yunker and Kumares C. Sinha, "Energy Considerations i n Urban Transportation Planning". TRAFFIC QUARTERLY (Volume 29, 1976, p. 585) i n service l e v e l was c h i e f l y responsible f o r the increase i n passengers, then 92 M i l l i o n a dditional passengers were attracted at the cost of 42 M i l l i o n a dditional service miles. The marginal energy cost of t h i s increase would then be about 44 passenger miles per equivalent gallon .17 of f u e l . (414 M i l l i o n passenger miles *• 9.33 M i l l i o n equivalent gallons of fuel) During the same period, the average energy cost per passenger mile would decline from 81 (4,684 M i l l i o n passenger miles * 58 M i l l i o n equivalent gallons of fuel) to 75.7 ( 5,098 M i l l i o n passenger miles • 67.3 M i l l i o n equivalent gallons of f u e l ) . This represents a decline of only 6.2 percent. Further exploratory calculations indicate that tran-s i t has only limited potential i n the short run as an energy conservation measure. Assume t r a n s i t , through a doubling of current service, was able to double i t ' s present ridership. Assume further, that the increased ridership accrued from former automobile drivers. The savings i n gasoline use would be on the order of 33,000 .18 B i l l i o n BTU. Transit systems would use an addition-17. Assumes an average t r i p length of about 4.5 miles per gallon and modal energy consumption of 4,5 vehicle miles per equivalent gallon of f u e l . 18. Based on current energy use patterns. a l 9,300 B i l l i o n BTU. Net energy sav ings would be about 24,000 B i l l i o n BTU. This amount o f energy represents about . 5 percent o f t o t a l Canadian Energy use or about 6 percent o f g a s o l i n e s o l d i n r e t a i l t r a d e . Y e t , favourab le  c o n d i t i o n s f o r t r a n s i t were assumed i n the c a l c u l a t i o n s . On the o ther hand, c o n s i d e r the shor t term p o t e n t i a l o f measures designed to enhance the energy e f f i c i e n c y of au tomobi les . Present Canadian standards r e q u i r e t h a t a l l new automobi les s o l d i n 1980 must be capable o f g e t t i n g 24 m i l e s per g a l l o n . By 1985 t h i s requirement i n c r e a s e s t o 33 mi<Les per g a l l o n . S i m i l a r i l y , measures t o i n c r e a s e the u t i l i z a t i o n of automobi les can b r i n g dramatic r e s u l t s i n terms o f energy e f f i c i e n c y . Whi le t r a n s i t may p lay a part i n Canadian energy i t i s c l e a r tha t i t i s not a panacea. 4.5 CLOSURE A host of institutional, economic and technological factors exist within the urban transit environment which tend to reduce the potential of transit in meeting a r t i -culated urban objectives. Local areas which plan to em-phasize the role and scope of transit w i l l require care-f u l planning to insure the recommended network best serves local aspirations. The planning model utilized by local areas w i l l likely place heavy emphasis upon a monitoring system which generates relevant information. Moreover, the type of information generated would best reflect the broad goals which local areas are attempting to meet. Hence, i t i s not unlikely that different areas w i l l re-quire different types of information. What types of monitoring systems are now used by public transport agencies? Can any inferences be made as to the apparent goals which monitoring systems now in use appear to reflect? This is the subject of Chapter 5* C H A P T E R 5 TRANSIT MONITORING: CRITERIA NOW IN U S E 5.1 INTRODUCTION "The changing role of public transit in North America has generally not been accompanied by improvements in the state-of-the-art of data collection and analy-s i s . Most public transit agencies and operators do not have measurable objec-tives that specifically relate transit service and performance to broader commun-ity goals and objectives..." (Horn,1977, p.29) It is surprising that c r i t i c s of current transit programmes cite a lack of information as a major problem. Few organizations require as much data to insure e f f i -cient operation as do local transit operators. Transit service that is not immediately consumed cannot be stored i t is an i n f i n i t e l y perishable product. Careful study is required to insure the supply of transit offered to consumers is closely related to the amount demanded. 100 To f u r t h e r compl i ca te m a t t e r s , demand i s i n no way s t a t i c . Rather i t i s i n a constant s t a t e o f f l u x both t e m p o r a l l y and s p a t i a l l y . To cope w i t h these complex o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s , a good d e a l o f resources are devoted t o the g e n e r a t i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n . I n Vancouver, 23 f u l l t ime p o s i t i o n s have been c rea ted by B . C Hydro t r a n s i t to c o l l e c t d e t a i l e d r i d e r s h i p i n f o r m a t i o n . With the i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d toward p u b l i c ownership w i t h i n the t r a n s i t i n d u s t r y has come a s i m i l a r b roadening o f the type o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d to adequate ly a s s e s s t r a n s i t ' s new r o l e . Th is i s due to the s u b s t i t u t i o n o f s o c i a l p r o f i t m a x i m i z a t i o n as the o p e r a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n making c r i t e r i a f o r the economic p r o f i t making c r i t e r i a h i s t o r i c a l l y u t i l i z e d . , Agenc ies are now expected to a s s e s s s o c i a l w e l l - b e i n g a l o n g w i t h f i s c a l v i a b i l i t y . A fundamental dilemma f o r p u b l i c p r o p e r t i e s stems from the l a c k o f g e n e r a l l y accepted c r i t e r i a and procedures through which t h i s t r a d e - o f f can be a x c e r t a i n e d . • • In t h i s c h a p t e r , the. t ype and nature o f i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e and used by t r a n s i t ope ra to rs w i l l be rev iewed . The chapter w i l l draw from s e v e r a l sources i n c l u d i n g surveys o f t r a n s i t o p e r a t o r s and p l a n n i n g organizations .--a rev iew o f l i t e r -1. I n t e r v i e w w i t h Mf. V. Sharman, D i r e c t o r , O p e r a t i o n a l P l a m r i n e B .C . Hydro T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , J u l y 18 , 1976 ature and several recent and progressive t r a n s i t devel-opment studies. 5.2 A TAXONOMY OF URBAN TRANSIT CRITERIA A variety of criteria relating to urban transit is presently being used in North America. It is clear that there are different levels of c r i t e r i a , each cor-responding to a specific use. There have been a number of attempts to classify criteria along several different dimensions. For example, Rice, (1972), attempted to stra-t i f y criteria according to interest group (user vs operator vs community ) Others,,have attempted to str a t i f y c r i -teria along the dimensions of efficiency and effective-ness. Presumably, efficiency relates to economic v i a b i l -ity while effectiveness relates to the furtherance of social well-being. A third methodology attempts to stra-t i f y criteria along the lines of system performance and system impact. This appears closely related to efficien-cy and effectiveness. , In this study, an attempt w i l l be made to treat tran-s i t as a continuing urban programme rather than a com-prehensive project. The emphasis here w i l l be on pro-gramme management rather than project design. Transit w i l l be considered a system rather than the sum of com-ponent parts. With these considerations a three tiered classification system is proposed. 103 Operational efficiency refers to criteria which re-late operational inputs to operational outputs. This is a suitable definition for internal efficiency. Operation- a l inputs refer to resources (eg. labour and capital) used to produce operational outputs (eg. bus miles). Measures of this type would include such criteria as the number of employees per transit vehicle or the cost per vehicle mile. Program efficiency refers to criteria which relate to the manner of organization of operational outputs. This set of criteria w i l l be used extensively in the planning of service. The chief means by which community transit goals can be met for example, w i l l stem from the manner in which Resources are allocated to different spatial areas and time periods and the linkage between themy This is commonly defined as the level of service. This set of criteria w i l l seek to quantify the means by which a particular plan i s expected to contribute toward the attainment? of some higher leveik goal. The quantification of level of service w i l l be known as pro-gram input. Program efficiency, then, becomes the ratio of operational inputs to program inputs. It seeks to measure how e f f i c i e n t l y a p a r t i c u l a r a l t e r n a t i v e or plan has been mounted to meet a s p e c i f i c operational objective. There i s a danger, however, i n overreliance on measures; of program e f f i c i e n c y . Policy evaluation involves; the r e l a t i o n of policy inputs to policy outputs. The concep-t u a l measure of program e f f i c i e n c y suggested here seeks only to measure and quantify policy inputs. The r e l a t i o n -ship between policy inputs and policy outputs i s derived from the conceptual model of the r a t i o n a l planning process. Policy inputs are the means through which desired p o l i c y outputs are expected to be generated. F i n a l l y , program effectiveness w i l l r e f e r to the extent to which a continuing program of public transpor-t a t i o n appears to be meeting community objectives. This set of c r i t e r i a w i l l f a c i l i t a t e the trade-offs that pub-l i c t r a n s i t operators and planning organizations must make between f i s c a l v i a b i l i t y and s o c i a l p r o f i t maxi-mization. The q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of t h i s measure w i l l be de-fined as program outputs. Like program inputs, t h i s measure should be goal oriented. It w i l l , not however indicate the actual contribution of the community t r a n s i t system toward s o c i a l well-being or program e f f e c t s . Rather, program outputs are i n r e a l i t y i n d i c a t i v e meas-FIGURE 5.1 DIAGRAMATIC REPRESENTATION OF LEVELS OF TRANSIT CRITERIA OPERATIONAL INPUTS OPERATIONAL OUTPUTS PROGRAMME INPUTS PROGRAMME OUTPUTS PROGRAMME EFFECTS IN TERNAL FFIC1ENCY PROG EFFICIE PROGRAMME EFFECTIVENESS RAMME NCY CONTRIBUTION TO SOCIAL WELL-BEING ures of such effect. They attempt to measure the degree to which operational objectives are being met. The distinc-tion between operational objectives and community goals cannot be understated. The actual program effect of transit could only be estimated in a much broader con-text following very searching analysis. This level of analysis is clearly beyond the legitimate functions of transit management or transit planning organizations. Finally, i t is also useful to consider three d i f f e r -ent levels of planning; the urban area as a single unit; the zonal components which comprise the urban area and;:,the various links of the transportation system connecting the parts to the whole. 5.3 CRITERIA RELATING TO OPERATIONAL OUTPUTS A variety of s t a t i s t i c a l measures, often derived from accounting records, are commonly used by urban t r a n s i t properties. These indicators usually measure some physical unit of actual work produced by the t r a n s i t work functions. Measures of t h i s sort include the aggre-gate t o t a l of bus miles (or bus hours ) operated. This type of data1 i s widely reported i n government s t a t i s t i -c a l reports (see, S t a t i s t i c s Canada Pub. # 53-003) and i n s p e c i a l reports compiled and disseminated by industry organizations such as the American Public Transit Associ-ation. This data i s useful f o r comparisons between d i f -ferent t r a n s i t operators and between di f f e r e n t time periods. It «is common to construct ratios of operational inputs to operational outputs. This measure then becomes a measure of operational efficiency.. It i s common to express t h i s r a t i o i n terms of cost per vehicle mile. A survey of t r a n s i t operators (Horn, 1977), revealed that approximately 77 percent of t r a n s i t operators respond-ing (N=28), expressed t h i s measure on a route by route (or link) basis. Various other measures, such as the number of employ-ees per vehicle mile, or the average annual vehicle mileage per fleet coach, are commonly computed. A l l of these measures attempt to give some indication of the relative efficiency {vis a vis other operators or some other time period). Moreover, they are commonly used in the pre-paration of annual budgets. The relative uniformity of such measures between different properties is not surprising. The current uncertainties within the transit industry stem from the absence of an ascertainable methodology with which to handle social well-being. Operational output measures, and measures of operation a l efficiency, have.historically been employed by the private, for profit, transit properties. In the meta-morphosis from private to public ownership, this well developed system, already utilized to measure operation-a l outputs, was not discarded. 5.4 CRITERIA RELATING TO PROGRAM.EFFICIENCY Measures of program efficiency, as defined here, relate to the manner in which resources are organized to meet objectives and the implications such an organ-ization of resources has to operational inputs (See Figure 5.$). Our chief task in this section, w i l l be to review the various measures of program inputs now utilized with-in the transit industry. Most transit properties u t i l i z e some measures of program inputs although they are usually known by some other name. In Horn's survey of transit operators (1977) for example, f u l l y 84 percent of repondents indicated they collected information on the degree of schedule adherence. Although, crude, this measure gives some indication of the quality of service. In general, measures of program input w i l l seek to measure the level of service. Despite the fact that the level of service is the chief means through which urban transit policy can be operationalized, i t ' s measurement, for the most part, remains an imprecise science. Furthermore, most measures refer to either links in the transit system or general urban scale measures. Program input (or level of service) measures at the zonal level are seldom used. This pau-city of information tends to complicate analysis. A recent analysis of the Toronto, Canada public transpor-tation system, for example, concluded: "In.examing strengths and weaknesses of public transportation in Metropolitan " "•' Toronto, attention has (had) to be given to the whole at the expense of the detail-ed discussions on the parts." (Parkinson and Chan, 1973, p „ 7) Procedures followed by the bulk of transit operators follow guidelines set out by the National Committee for Urban Transportation (1958). This publication, however, is more a discussion of qualitative transit planning standards and less a rigorous methodology by which service level can be measured. It's emphasis is decidely on isolated links (routes) in the transit system rather than attributes of the system in whole. Measurement of service level, as suggested by this manual, is largely restricted to determination of route frequency. Perhaps more disturbing, is the lack of any guid-ance from the manual as to how to handle social goals (as defined in Chapter 4)• This is understandable given the vintage of the manual, yet i t ' s suggested standards are apparently s t i l l utilized by many properties. A more recent manual by the Urban Institute (1972), suggests that a measure of accessibility is more appro-priate as a definition of level of service. Two measures are suggested. The f i r s t measure attempts to estimate the "percent of residents not within 'x' minutes of pub-l i c transit services or more than one hour from key desti-.1 nations." It is suggested that a residence is access-ible to a surface transit line i f i t is within a five to ten minute walking distance from a bus stop or station. No guidance is given as to what constitutes a "key" des-tination. A further refinement of this technique is sug-gested whereby the percent of residents without access to an automobile is estimated based on secondary zonal data on automobile ownership and demographic information. 1. Richard Winnie and Harry P. Ha try', Measuring the Effect-iveness of Local Government Services: Transportation. (Urban Institute, Washington,D.C., 1972, p.l7«) 112 Mode: Bus Headways: 20 minutes Estimated number of persons unserved: Total area population = 765 Estimated number of residents not within 5 minutes walking distance = 320 50 -Bus route and stops Total population of block FIGURE 5-2 ILLUSTRATIVE MAPPING PROCEDURE TO DETERMINE TRANSIT ACCESSIBILITY source: Winnie and Hatry, Measuring the Effectiveness of Local Government Services:TransportatTon "I The Urban I n s t i t u t e . Washington, D.C., 1972, p The second level of service measure, recommends that the "time required to travel between major origins and destinations " be monitored on an annual basis. In an "average sized city", the report estimates that about 15 to 30 origin-destination links would be adequate to derive an urban level measure, It further recommends that other links should be included which, though not present-ly travelled with high frequency, 8re nevertheless "social ly desirable". As an example of such a link, i t cites a route portion which connects a low income neighborhood experiencing high unemployment with an employment center which could conceivably use the type of labour available in the neighborhood. Criteria of this type are commonly used by many oof the larger transit organizations, though they are more frequently utilized as local standards rather than measure ment procedures. In Toronto, for example, local object-ives have been developed which define the percent of population, strati f i e d by automobile ownership, which i t would be desirable to serve. POPULATION CLASS . DESIRABLE PERCENT ACCESSIBLE * Low car ownership Medium car ownership High car ownership 90 70 60 subway station. T A B L E 5.1 LEVEL OF SERVICE STANDARD UTILIZED IN TORONTO SOURCE: PARKINSON and CHAri 1973 A further c r i t e r i a , defined as "connectivity" i s measured in terms of the travel time (vehicle only) from origin to downtown. This criteria would be applicable to urban areas which aspired toward C.B.D. preservation or enhancement. A third cri t e r i a used in Toronto to measure level of service utilizes transit/auto travel time ratios, though again only for travel to the C.B.D. Total door to door travel time is considered in this measure. S i m i l a r c r i t e r i a have been recommended i n Portland, .3 and i n Cleveland. .2 2. Tri-Met Transit Authority (Portland, Oregon) GoaIs (unpublished, 1975, Portland, Oregon ) 3. Alan M. Voorhees &. Associates, 5 County Transit Study- Service standards and Level of Service Criteria (Unpub-lished draft report, Cleveland, Ohio, 1973 ) 115 In Boston, local standards have been developed whereby average spacing of surface routes is also a function of .4 population density. This measure has been refined, however, so as to express level of service in terms of the miles of transit routes per square mile of development. This measure is the reciprocal of route spacing. Pop./Sq. Mile Average Spacing Route Miles/ (thousands) Feeder Grosstown Sq./Mile Over 12 .4 : .6 . 4.17 100- 12 .5'.. .75 3.33 8-10 • 6 .9 2.67 =6'- 8 ' • .8 • . 1.2 2.00 4 - 6 um- • •' • 1.5 -1.67 2 - 4 1.0 1.00 Under 2 . 2.00. — - .50. TABLE 5.2 LEVEL OF SERVICE STANDARD UTILIZED IN THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA' 4 Scheibe and Schultz use a so'mewha.t similar measure but also consider the frequency of service. Their criteria is the one way hourly bus miles per square mile. This measure equals the reciprocal of the spacing distance .. times the frequency of service. For design purposes, i t has the added advantage that total bus miles can be used as a ^•urrog_at.e-Tneas^re;>fr<*'cSs^ 4. Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, Service  Policy For Public Transportation. (Unpublished, Boston, 1975) A conceptually superior, but far more complicated measure has been suggested by the Institute of Transpor-tation Engineers (1976). This measure seeks to define the "percent of opportunities (y) that can be reached in minutes (t) or at cost (c) by population group (x)." where: y = jobs 1 y = classrooms 2 x = low income residents 1 x = high income residents 2 t = local standard c = local standard It is further suggested that spatially disaggregated accessibility indices could serve to indicate whether .. the local public transportation system is G b m ^ ^ i b l ^ : with local land use plans. Presumably, accessibility should be high for the designated growth areas whether this is the C.B.D. or some other activity area. A slmilar.^'analysis has been carried out i n the preparation of the f i v e year t r a n s i t development plan by the Comprehensive Planning Organization of the San Diego Region. In that study, the c r i t e r i a used to mea-sure l e v e l of service was the " % of population able to reach % of jobs i n the San Diego Region within 45 minutes •5 (door to door) using the bus t r a n s i t system." The San Diego Study further s t r a t i f i e d the above measure by income group and s p a t i a l proximity to the C.B.D. 100% 80 ' 60-4 0 -9,£> •»•{ 3 o -*.--<§> y »oo% § 80 8 s u a Eg o o 60-\ «0-j 20 0 H I I RING 1 RING 2 RING 3 H BASE SYSTEM ACTION PLAN I CRITERIA PLAN (£3) ACCESSIBILITY CRITERION FIGURE 5.3 L E V E L OF SERVICE OF ALTERNATIVE TRANSIT PLANS IN SAN D1EG0 5. Comprehensive Planning Organization of San Diego,, Transit  Development and Management Plan,(San Diego^ 1975) 118 Type of A c t i v i t y Ring Soci o -Economic Group Standard Employment % of p o p u l a t i o n able to reach % of j o b s In the San Diego Region w i t h -i n i»5 minutes (door-to-door) using the bus t r a n s i t system: % Population % Jobs 1 nner intermed. Outer Low Other Low Other Low Other 90 4o 80 4o 70 30 60 30 40 15 30 15 Shopplng or Health Services % of population a b l e to reach a major shopping area (greater than 300,000 square f e e t ) or major h e a l t h c l i n i c w i t h i n 30 minutes using the bus t r a n s i t system: % Pop u l a t i o n Inner Intermed. Outer Low Other Low Other Low Other 90 80 70 60 hO 30. TABLE 5.3 LEVEL OF SERVICE CRITERIA IN SAN DIEGO Comprehensive Planning Organization of the San Diego Region, Transit Development and Management Plan., (San Diego C.F70T, "1975") A variant of the I.T.E. measure has been suggested by Rice (1973)• This measure involves calculating the percentage of employment i n urban areas which can be reach ed by public t r a n s i t within 40 minutes (door to door) from each analysis zone. This measure i s superior to the measures discussed e a r l i e r i n that i t i s disaggregated to a f i n e r s p a t i a l mesh. This should allow for a more e x p l i c i t and objective-oriented planning"process. Kates, Peat, Marwick & Company (1973), have made use of a s i m i l a r measure i n t h e i r study of the public transportation systems i n Vancouver, Edmonton and Winner peg. Their measure, which was defined as connectivity, calculated the number of households and employment cen-ters accessible from s p a t i a l l y disaggregated analysis zones. The measure was calculated f o r both automobile t r a v e l and for public t r a n s i t t r a v e l . A household was defined as accessible to an urban opportunity ( i e . employ-ment) i f a t r i p could be completed within 35 minutes (door to door t r a v e l time) and within two transfers. . Representative Output from the study i s shown i n Table 5-4 and F i g u r e ^ 5-4»CLlZZ"-^' ' The study suggests that i t would be*conceptually superior i f zonal population was s t r a t i f i e d by income (say low income and other income classes) and employment Percentage of Oppor tun i t i es FIGURE 5-4 P E R C E N T A G E O F O P P O R T U N I T I E S A C C E S S I B L E T O T H E A V E R A G E H O U S E H O L D - V A N C O U V E R v.. source: Kates, Peat, Marwick & Co., Transportation S e r v i c e Measures (Vancouver, Greater Vancouver Regional District, 1973) 121 TRANSPORTATION SERVICE MEASURES CONNECTIVITY MEASURES - PEAK HOUR HOUSEHOLDS Number Accessible to Average Household: - By Transit at A l l - By Transit in 35 Minutes, 2 Transfers - By Automobile i n 25 Minutes. Number Accessible from C i t y Centre: - By T r a n s i t i n 45 Minutes - By Tra n s i t i n 35 Minutes, 2 Transfers - B y Automobile i n 25 Minutes. .IOBS Number Accessible to Average Household: - By T r a n s i t at A l l - By Tra n s i t i n 35 Minutes, 2 Transfers - By Automobile in 25 Minutes. Number Accessible from C i t y Centre: - By Transit in 45 Minutes - By Transit in 35 Minutes, 2 Transfers - By Automobile ln 25 Minutes. AREA (Square Miles) Area Accessible to Average Household: - By Tra n s i t at A l l - By Tra n s i t i n 35 Minutes, 2 Transfers - By Automobile i n 25 Minutes. Area Accessible from C i t y Centre: - By T r a n s i t i n 45 Minutes - By T r a n s i t i n 35 Minutes, 2 Transfers - By Automobile i n 25 Minutes. ESTIMATED 1971 POPULATION Number who Return l n Peak 5 Holiday Hours: Number for whom there i s Highway Capacity: U t i l i z a t i o n , as °L of Population: Capacity A v a i l a b l e , as 7. of Population: VANCOUVER 1967 Number % 135,518 40,964 122,378 157,193 114,979 152,478 219,851 80,142 163,998 251,948 209,212 219,903 100.6 17.9 91.8 81.5 52.1 64.6 ,100,000 195,000 18 From Recreational Routes Only 276,056 100 15 44 WINNIPEG 1967 Number % 158,919 100 49|114,834 47,899 143,320 42 55 336,113 100 65 24 49 75 62 65 445.1 100 23 4 21 18 12 15 128,945 117,156 153,974 167,106 85,649 143,320 190,044 158,806 194,865 535,000 91,600 256,000 ' 17 48 ' 72 30 90 81 74 97 196,582 100 85 44 EDMONTON 1971 Number ' 7, 133,259 100 107,995 39,263 125,206 167,127 143,140 71,998 73 /161,386 97 81 99 170.3 100 159,306 150,455 167,073 72.1 19.6 142.0 66.4 54.9 158.4 42 12 83 39 32 93 460,000 116,000 206,000 25 45 81 29 94 119,11.7 89 106,083 80 133,259 100 100 86 43 1 97 i 95 | 90 | 100 ! 88.5 100 51.6 58 16.5 19 79.7 90 55.3 62 48. 1 5 86.9 98 TABLE 5-4 Kates, Peat, Marwick & Company, Transportation Service Measures. (Vancouver, Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , 19733 was s t r a t i f i e d by s k i l l ( i e . low s k i l l jobs vs other jobs) This has also been suggested by Falcocchio and C a n t i l l i (1975). A second l e v e l of service indicator u t i l i z e d i n the K.P.M. study sought to quantify time and convenience. One hundred t r i p s were randomly sampled from origin-dest-ination tables. From these sampled t r i p s , estimates were made of the average t r i p time, the normal maximum time t r a v e l l i n g by public transportation, the average time spent outside of vehicles, etc. A measure of t h i s type i s appropriate as an urban l e v e l indicator but less use-f u l f or work requiring greater d e t a i l . In summary, l e v e l of service i s an elusive concept measurable with varying degrees of accuracy and s o p h i s t i -cation. The availa b l e l i t e r a t u r e indicates that most t r a n s i t operators and regional transportation planning agencies define l e v e l of service i n a rather crude fashion Connectivity of the t o t a l t r a n s i t system i s seldom con-sidered. As goals for urban t r a n s i t become more s p e c i f i c , and the role t r a n s i t i s expected to play Increases, i t i s c lear that l e v e l of service, must be more precisely defined. The procedures are complex and s p e c i a l care must be taken to insure that these procedures are under-stood by professionals who may have had no involvement i n t h e i r preparation. These and other problems w i l l be taken up i n Chapter Six. 5.5 CRITERIA RELATING TO PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS Program effectiveness refers to the degree to which operational objectives are being met through a comprehen-sive programme of public transportation. Measurement of program effectiveness w i l l involve, a combination of operational input measures and of program output measures. Unlike program efficiency, which is essentially concerned with service level, (ie, supply), programme effectiveness is concerned with impacts. In most cases, this w i l l involve some measurement of actual consumer demand. A l l transit operators generate some form of infor-mation concerning programme outputs although i t is usually known by some other name. In general^ .Information gener-ated concerning actual passenger demand is a form of programme output, A major problem with information now available relates to the manner and scale with which i t is collected. Perhaps the most basic impact measure now collected is a simple t a l l y of passengers riding the transit system. Nearly a l l transit operators collect this information. The typical methodology employedt involves conducting a sample\survey of passengers entering transit vehicles and expressing this figure as a function of farebox rev'-r; enues so that:, R = | Pi ?i i=l Where: R- = Tota 1 Revenue P = Total Passengers in Fare Class i \:'F^ - Fare of Passengers in Class i Using this expression, total passengers can be estimated given total revenue* Aggregate information of this sort is routinely available in published industry reports. A refinement of this basic methodology involves u t i l i z i n g the transit route as the basic unit of data collection. This requires segregation of vehicle revenue on a route by route basis. Horn's survey (1977) of tran-s i t operators indicated that 75 percent of respondents (N=2#) segregated revenue on a route by route basis (pl9) Another commonly employed transit survey involves conducting a spot check at a screenline point or some other point where the load is known to be the greatest, i In Horn's survey, fu l l y 100 percent of respondents indi -cated that they conducted such surveys. These surveys are utilized by operational management to insure supply of transit along a route matches the demand. The survey results, however, are alternatively used as impact measures, Iji Portland, for example, a major goal is to increase the daily average ridership to the Central Business Dis-,6 t r i c t . The technique employed to measure this would be the spot survey. Likewise, a number of transit prop-erties commonly have available the modal s p l i t to the downtown area. In Horn's survey, 66 percent of respond-ents had this information available. The transit compo-nent of this measure is typically determined u t i l i z i n g the spot survey (Another agency usually supplies the auto component). Surprisingly, few properties were able to supply estimates of the number of passenger miles of travel (13 properties out of 2£). This figure, when expressed as 6. Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon, Goals,(Portland, Oregon, December, 1974.) a ratio of vehicle miles, provides an indicator of the overall productivity of the transit route. Moreover, this estimate is not affected by differences in the average length of the ride. The indicator has special relevance in considerations of pricing and equity issues. Other commonly collected impact measures, as reveal-ed by Horn's survey, included a t a l l y of senior citizen passengers and a variety of on-board boarding and alight-ing surveys. Basic information relating transit performance to social goals is collected less frequently. While many of the transit proponents fervently believe i t ' s impact w i l l be greatest among lower income groups, basic demo-graphic profiles, stratifying ridership by levels of income are seldom collected. Horn's survey indicated that only 15 operators out of 21 respondents had such data available. Moreover, properties which had such data do not appear to collect i t systematically. Properties surveyed indicated such data was collected randomly ( 5 ) , every few years ( 3 ) , or seldom(3). (p. 17) Likewise, basic information concerning the trans-portation impact was rare. Few properties (9 out of 26), could estimate the percentage of passengers who had an automobile available for their t r i p . (p. 17-)• Such i n -formation sheds some light on the number of "choice" passengers carried. For new or improved service, 16 out of 25 respondents indicated some type of information was collected concerning the former mode of patrons. Like other information of this sort, however, the data appeared to be gathered infrequently. The lack of relevant information on transit impact usually forces senior government transit aid administra-tors to rely on crude measures of success. In the United States, for example, the Urban Mass ,Transportation Ad-ministration advises i t ' s applicants... "...ridership impact is employed as a measure of merit in several places in these guidelines. Affecting ridership there-fore appears to be an objective, but rider-ship in reality is a measure of success (or potential success) in working toward an objective like affecting-congestion through various means..." 7. Department of Transportation (U.S.), Urb^h Mass Trans-portation Administration, External Operating Manual,, (Washington D.C.,. 1972, p.IIB - 16.) Smerk (1974, p. 231.), claims the lack of appropri-ate criteria is one of the major problems confronting the transit industry today. "Much of the Federal program i s based on the assumption that there are overspill benefits from transit sufficient to warr-ant the Subsidy of transit operations, yet there is no definitive, standardized methods of calculating these benefits. The lack of information is probably a ma-jor cause for the evident lack of success in boosting patronage." At one point, the U.M.T.A. attempted to introduce specific criteria for grant administration but withdrew i t ' s proposal,in the face of widespread industry opposi-tion. (Smerk, 1974, p.254.) Operators cited the extra cost that would necessarily be expended to comply with the proposed new regulations. An emerging methodology employed by larger operators involves a detailed survey of ridership for those routes which f a l l below some specified level of revenue. In such cases, a detailed demographic profile of passengers' socio-economic characteristics and travel demand is deter-mined, i n cases where the transportation disadvantaged (however defined) comprise a significant proportion of 1 13Q .8 passengers, minimun standards are reduced. While this methodology allows some integration of "social well-being" objectives into the transit decision making framework, i t does not permit the systematic track-ing of the extent to which these new goals are being met. Routes chosen for special analysis are always the marginal components of the system. See for example, Tri-Met Transit Authority, Goals, (Portland, Oregon, 1975; Massachusetts Bay Transporta-tion Authority, Service Policy For Public Transporta-tion, (Boston, 1975*) 5.6 SUMMARY In the metamorphosis from private to public owner-ship, the urban t r a n s i t industry and t r a n s i t planning organizations have had considerable d i f f i c u l t y r e c o n c i l -ing the various s o c i a l ( i e . not p r o f i t a b l e ) objectives of t r a n s i t with the stark v f i s c a l r e a l i t i e s of a world with only limited f i n a n c i a l resources;. Much of the pre-sent c r i s i s appears to stem from the f a i l u r e of manage-ment to develop appropriate c r i t e r i a through which "need" can be objec t i v e l y determined, and by which "progress" can be o b j e c t i v e l y charted. C r i t e r i a can be c l a s s i f i e d into three main areas. A f i r s t area deals with c r i t e r i a developed to measure the i n t e r n a l operating e f f i c i e n c y of the t r a n s i t system© „ C r i t e r i a developed while t r a n s i t was a private enterprise i s s t i l l appropriate today. By and large, most proper-t i e s u t i l i z e s i m i l a r types of indicators and these are s t i l l relevant. A second area deals with c r i t e r i a u t i l i z e d to mea-sure the l e v e l of service. Most properties appear to u t i l i z e generally accepted service guidelines expressing service i n terms of route spacing, headway (or frequency), hours of operation, etc. It is not unusual for such guidelines to be subjectively tempered with considerations for special public groups such as the elderly and the handicapped. Increasingly, properties are developing minimum standards of route productiivity which must be met for a given route to be continued. Zonal measures of transit level of service are rare, A few properties and cities have made notable attempts to measure service level in different spatial areas of the city. An emerging methodology employs a measure of accessibility to express service level although only a few cities have progressed to this stage. The measurement of transit impact i s often expressed more crudely than level of service. Typically, aggregate ridership is the only information available by which a transit programme can be assessed. L i t t l e is known about the characteristics of riders, or their ti?ip rpur-pose. Basic information such as area (zone) of origin and destination is oftenlnot available. What information " is collected is normally done so on a route by route basis. The lack of basic information available on t r a n s i t performance prevents- even•the most rudimentary assessment of the success or f a i l u r e i n meeting t r a n s i t ' s apparent goals. U n t i l such information i s avai l a b l e the current debate over the wisdom of present p o l i c i e s i s l i k e l y to continue. One possible methodology i s suggested i n the next Chapter. 134 C H A P T E R 6 A PROPOSED GOALS ORIENTED URBAN TRANSIT MONITORING SYSTEM 6 . 1 INTRODUCTION In th i s chapter, a conceptual model of an urban t r a n s i t monitoring system i s presented. In the f i r s t part of the chapter, the intended r o l e , scope, and limi t a t i o n s of the envisioned system are set out. A methodology to monitor operational outputs i s suggested. This portion of the proposed system provides a means whereby physical units of output can be systematically recorded. Operational outputs, as defined here, are not goal related. Rather, they provide a linkage between physical resources and the measurement of programme inputs. Their purpose i s to f a c i l i t a t e the comparison of system costs to the l e v e l of service of the t r a n s i t system to various areas of the urban region. A second portion of the chapter reviews the goals of t r a n s i t as uncovered in Chapter three. Programme inputs and programme outputs are then related to these goals. Programme inputs seek to measure the attributes of the t r a n s i t system. This i s the means by which objectives are to be met by t r a n s i t . I ts concern i s with system performance. Frequently, th i s has been referred to as the l e v e l of service. Programme outputs seek to measure system impact. I t seeks to determine the extent to which individuals react to a community t r a n s i t programme. Like programme inputs, i t s measurement i s d i r e c t l y related to goals. F i n a l l y , s p e c i f i c indicators of programme inputs and program outputs are presented. These indicators are grouped along major thematic goal areas. Hypothetical examples of the use of such measures i s also i l l u s t r a t e d . These indicators become the major conclusions of the thes i s . Implementation of such a system w i l l provide the disaggregated data on t r a n s i t performance and impact which w i l l allow for a more reasoned evaluation of the degree to which t r a n s i t i s contributing to s p e c i f i c community objectives over time. With such information, i t i s hoped a l l o c a t i v e decisions concerning the l e v e l of t r a n s i t expenditures and the d i s t r i -bution of service between d i f f e r e n t s p a t i a l areas can be more objectively! determined. 6.2 THE ROLE' OF TRANSIT MONITORING Eff e c t i v e transportation planning requires s u f f i -cient and timely information about the change i n the spa-t i a l structure of economic and s o c i a l a c t i v i t i e s i n the urban areas. The present generation of urban transpor-tat i o n planning studies have resulted i n "end state" plans, Means of reaching these states have been based on con-sid e r a t i o n of past trends and current objectives and needs. Urban areas, however, are constantly undergoing change i n development patterns and socio-economic condi-tions within s p e c i f i c parts of the urban region. These changes may manifest themselves i n changing consumer attitudes and preferences. Because of the degree of uncertainty surrounding future urban conditions, "end state" plans may not be relevant a f t e r even r e l a t i v e l y short time spans. To cope with these uncertainties, a continuing planning process i s called f o r which has as i t ' s purpose the continual re^evaluation of community objectives.and the methods and means to achieve them. vWithin •;: the-transit/ .planning: andAmanagementr process the need fo r a continuing planning process i s even greater A small sh i f t : i n community t r a v e l patterns may have com-paratively l i t t l e impact on a mode which serves 85 percent of the urban t r a v e l market. The impact i s much greater, however, for the minority mode which t r a n s i t has become. Further, since a good deal of resources must be devoted to operating the t r a n s i t system, detailed attention must be given to- how well i t performs. Likewise, there exists a need for detailed i n f o r -mation on areas and situations i n which t r a n s i t appears to be working w e l l . Such information w i l l provide the basis for future decisions on t r a n s i t ' s role i n the com-munity, and provide a basis f o r making adjustments to the ex i s t i n g system. Monitoring the e x i s t i n g t r a n s i t system and the changing s o c i a l and economic conditions within urban areas provides a basis f o r the description and maintenance of the current status of urban a c t i v i t i e s . The role of t r a n s i t monitoring i s therefore twofold. On the one hand, information i s required to allow an assess-ment of the effectiveness of past decisions. A framework to systematically measure the effectiveness of t r a n s i t operations may lead to a t r a n s i t management atmospheres more cognizant of community concerns. A second purpose, is to provide the tools to allow a more accurate predic-tion of the effectiveness of proposed actions. Simply put, a transit monitoring process seeks to determine the extent to which community objectives are being met through a continuing program of transit services, and to quantitatively measure the effect of marginal changes of resource allocation over time. Ultimately, the implementation of a transit monitoring system may fa c i l i t a t e program evaluation and allow for more ration-a l trade-offs to be made between different objectives and programs. There appears to be five central questions rele-vant to transit monitoring.: ; "'' 1. What are the goals of Transit? 2. What are the inputs to the production function and the means to measure them? i 3. What are the operational outputs to tran-s i t programs and the means to measure them? 4. What are the program outputs and the means to measure them? 5. What are the program effects of transit, and the means to measure them? Under the process envisioned, a start-up phase would establish base values of inputs and outputs. The base period i s an important parameter of the system as s h i f t s i n inputs and outputs would be compared against these base measures. Conceivably, indices could be con-structed to compare one period to another, LIMITATIONS OF PROPOSED TRANSIT MONITORING PROCESS Ideally, a t r a n s i t monitoring system would seek to measure the d i r e c t effect of t r a n s i t i n meeting comm-unity objectives. III practice, however, objectives are often only i n d i r e c t l y linked to the transportation system, and not e a s i l y measurable. This may best be i l l u s t r a t e d by means of an example. One objective of a t r a n s i t system might be to i n - , crease employment of low-skilled i n d i v i d u a l s , A r e a l i s -t i c measure of t r a n s i t ' s effectiveness would then be the number of individuals who obtained employment as a con-sequence of t r a n s i t . Even i f i t were possible to measure th i s effect (and i t probably would not be) i t might turn but that workers who secured employment, immediately purchased an automobile. Hence, transit's apparent and lasting effect could be quite limited. In view of these problems one is forced to u t i l i z e indirect indicators of the particular goal achievement. In this study, indicators which are directly associated with the activity of individuals (ie. individuals' travel patterns and their interface with the transit system) w i l l be utilized as surrogate measures of goal achievement. In some cases, a more direct measure would be appro-priate for a higher level monitoring system. A hypothet-i c a l example illustrates this point. Assume a commun-ity objective is to reduce downtown a i r pollution through a number of measures including increased transit use. The transit monitoring system would generate information as to the marginal increase in passengers carried down-town and the marginal change in pollutants attributable to transit. A regional monitoring system, however, would u t i l i z e direct measurement of downtown a i r quality. A second problem relates to output i n d i v i s i b i l i t y . Basically, the same production function (ie. bus miles) is utilized in transit to achieve multiple onjectives. It is extremely d i f f i c u l t to relate inputs to specific outputs. No attempt has been made in this report to do this. For this !reason, i t is d i f f i c u l t to measure real efficiencies over time within any specific goal area. For example, i t is d i f f i c u l t to separate resources devoted to accomplish social objectives from those allocated •1 to accomplish energy or. transport efficiency goals. Consequently, i t must be stressed that the proposed out-put measures reflect trade-offs that cannot be techni-cally isolated. 1. Conceivably, a very complicated procedure involving the weighting of many factors could be initiated. It is doubtful however, whether such a process would improve the decision-making process. RELATIONSHIP OF TRANSIT MONITORING TU HIGHER LEVEL MONITORING PROGRAMS Transit monitoring i s not an end i n i t s e l f ; rather i t i s a means to an end. Given that the goals of a com-munity are such that a decision has been made to use t r a n s i t to achieve certain objectives, i t seeks to answer how e f f e c t i v e l y these goals are being accomplished. Within the t r a n s i t sector, t h i s information may be useful to predict the e f f e c t s of a l t e r n a t i v e courses of a c t i o n . The usefullness of a t r a n s i t monitoring system extends well beyond the evaluation of t r a n s i t . On a broader scale, information generated by a t r a n s i t moni-to r i n g system may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of urban transportation i n general, and a s s i s t i n the reformation of regional transportation goals. S i m i l a r l y , resource a l l o c a t i o n decisions between a l t e r n a t i v e modes would be f a c i l i t a t e d i f timely information on the e f f i -ciency and effectiveness of current programs was a v a i l -able. Likewise, information from an urban transportation monitoring system would be useful for the setting of broad regional priorities to f a c i l i t a t e decision making in different sectors. The siting of a new hospital, for example9 might conceivably be made considering the attributes of the public transportation system. FIGURE 6 . 1 144 RELATIONSHIP OF TRANSIT MONITORING TO HIGHER LEVEL MONITORING PROGRAMS :TORI I STEM LEVEL OF PLANNING ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES BETWEEN SECTORS 6o3 SPECIFICATION OF OPERATIONAL OUTPUT MEASURES Despite the diverse nature of community objectives for t r a n s i t , there i s a common pool of resources from which a l l program outputs and e f f e c t s are generated. Therefore, s i m i l a r kinds of operational outputs can pro-duce numerous and d i s t i n c t types of program outputs. These i n turn can generate a host of program e f f e c t s . As has been stated e a r l i e r , t h i s thesis w i l l not attempt to formulate a l i n k between operational inputs and operational outputs. Hence, our task here i s to suggest an appropriate parameter fo r operational outputs. A severe problem concerning the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of operational outputs f o r t r a n s i t , centers around the inher-ent transportation function of the operation. This study w i l l deal with the impact of t r a n s i t on s p e c i f i c zonal units so as to foster a more goal-oriented t r a n s i t planning process which can e x p l i c i t l y account f o r s p a t i a l d i f f e r -ences of population, and by inference, transportation needs. The consumption of transportation services how-ever, does not respect a r b i t r a r y zonal boundaries. I t i s therefore d i f f i c u l t to specify ,,a unit of measurement of operational output which has any r e l a t i o n s h i p to oper-a t i o n a l inputs. In practice, the l i n k between inputs and outputs i s manifested i n demand. Longer t r i p s w i l l con-sume more resources. A second problem concerns the extent of an area served. Clearly, t r a n s i t only serves a small area on either side of a s t a t i o n .or stop. Individuals, however, w i l l d i f f e r i n the degree to which they w i l l u t i l i z e a service necessitating a walk of the^same distance. Hence, some means must be established to a r b i t r a r i l y determine the extent to which an area Is served. This problem w i l l be more f u l l y discussed i n the next.section. A variety of measures could conceivably be used as a surrogate of operational outputs i n discrete areas. Ideally, a measure would indicate the r e a l output that could be consumed i n a zone. Passenger Seat Miles A v a i l - able, f o r example, would p o t e n t i a l l y measure a gross . estimate of the extent of resources devoted to an area. The measure, however, i s not r e a d i l y available and can be estimated only through extensive operational surveys. 2. The use of automatic vehicle monitoring techniques however might f a c i l i t a t e use of such a measure. A l e s s s a t i s f a c t o r y method of measuring o p e r a t i o n a l output would be t o u t i l i z e a measure of bus mi les or bus minutes of s e r v i c e . Th i s measure has the advantage tha t i t can be e a s i l y c a l c u l a t e d and has some r e l a t i o n -.3 s h i p t o o p e r a t i o n a l i n p u t s . A f u r t h e r ref inement o f t h i s measure would be t o express bus mi les i n terms o f the area s e r v e d , as has been suggested by Scheibe (1977). Th is measure i s then r e l a t e d t o both route s p a c i n g and frequency of s e r v i c e . I t ' s d e r i v a t i o n can be i l l u s t r a t e d by way o f example. Assume an area two mi les by one mi le (a t r a f f i c zone, p lann ing a r e a , e t c . ) , i s served by two bus l i n e s ; one running E a s t - W e s t , and one running N o r t h - S o u t h . Dur ing the two AM peak hours , the East -West l i n e has a headway o f 6 minutes and the Nor th -South l i n e has a headway of 30 minutes . I f the area served by the bus l i n e s i s a r b i t r a r i l y set at 1200 feet from e i t h e r s i d e o f the r o u t e , then the t o t a l area served w i l l be 1 .16 square m i l e s . The East -West l i n e w i l l supply 3.. Accord ing t o responses t o Horn's (1977) t r a n s i t survey,, bus mi les are used as a s tandard method f o r c a l c u l a t i n g o p e r a t i n g budgets o f t r a n s i t systems. * These standards w i l l be d i scussed f u r t h e r i n S e c t i o n 6 . 5 . So bus miles of service to the area (2 miles length X 10 bus t r i p s per hour X 2 hours X 2way t r a v e l ) . The North-South l i n e w i l l supply 3 bus miles of service. Hence the number of bus miles per square mile served w i l l be 76.12. EFFECT OF CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY OF TRANSIT SERVICES i f service on.the East-West l i n e i s reduced (say the headway i s increased to 10 minutes), the indicator of operational output w i l l decline. Using the assump-tions from the example above, the case i s presented i n Table 6.1. EFFECT OF CHANGES IN THE SPACING OF TRANSIT SERVICES While the number of bus miles per square mile pro-vides one measure of the physical amount of service pro-vided to an area, i t i s important to recognize that i t i s very sensitive to the spacing of routes. Moreover a reduction i n service can have perverse effects on the mag-TABLE 6.1 E F F E C T OF C H A N G E S IN HEADWAY ON OPERATIONAL OUTPUT INDICATOR H Y P O T H E T I C A L SERVICE A R E A "Y" PERIOD AREA OF ZONE AREA SERVED BY TRANSIT NUMBER OF BUS MILES BUS MILES/ SQ. MILE BASE rPERIOD 2 SQ. . MILES 1.156 88 76.1 BASE PERIOD + 1 2 SQ. MILES 1.156 56 48.4 CHANGE -32 -27.7 T A B L E 6.2 i EFFECT OF CHANGES IN ROUTE SPACING ON OPERATIONAL OUTPUT I N D I C A T O R : HYPOTHETICAL SERVICE A R E A "Y" PERIOD AREA OF ZONE AREA SERVED BY TRANSIT NUMBER OF BUS MILES BUS MILES/ SQ. M I L E BASE PERIOD 2 SQ. MILES 1.156 88 76.1 BASE PERIOD + 1 2 SQ. MILES .909 80 88.0 CHANGE -.247 - 8 +11.9 nitude of the number. In cases where new. service routes are added or where.routes are terminated, the change i n bus miles per square mile can be i n the opposite d i r e c t i o n of the change of service. Consequently, i t i s important to consider changes i n the area served and changes i n the amount of service. This can again be i l l u s t r a t e d using the data from the case above. Assume the North-South route was terminated. Changes i n the measure of operation-a l output i s then i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table 6.2. SUMMARY A methodology, a l b e i t crude, has been outlined to provide for the systematic measurement and recording of the gross output of a t r a n s i t operation which i s a l l o -cated to d i f f e r e n t s p a t i a l areas of the c i t y . There are some serious drawbacks to the method outlined. For example i t i s d i f f i c u l t to establish a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between operational output measures and input costs. A second problem concerns the d i f f i c u l t y of quantifying trade-offs between route spacing and frequency of service. Despite these d i f f i c u l t i e s , t h i s methodology represents a s i g n i -f i c a n t improvement over measurement practices currently i n use. This i s larg e l y because the proposed measure can be related to a s p e c i f i c area rather then a route seg< ment. The physical resources then devoted to the area can be related to basic demographic information of the area as i s commonly available from secondary data sources such as land use surveys or census information. I t must be emphasised''again, that measurements of the operational output of a t r a n s i t operation are not goal oriented. A more q u a l i t a t i v e measure of t r a n s i t service i s required. Nor do measures of operational out-put allow any inference to be made as to the u t i l i t y of the community t r a n s i t system. I t i s to these matters which we now turn. 6.4 INDICATORS OF PROGRAM INPUTS Whereas operational output indicators, as defined i n t h i s study, are not oriented toward the achievement of any s p e c i f i c goal, program inputs and program outputs are both related to achieving s p e c i f i c ends. The l i n k between operational outputs and program inputs l i e s i n the manner i n which resources are organized and integrated toward s p e c i f i c ends. Another way of distinguishing between operational outputs and program inputs l i e s i n the scale of the meas-urement technique. For any p a r t i c u l a r zone or area, the measurement of operational output i s independent of any other area. The measurement of program inputs, however, e x p l i c i t l y considers the a l l o c a t i o n of resources to a l l parts of the region. I t seeks to quantify the ease with which an i n d i v i d u a l can t r a v e l from one area to another area. Program input, then, i s concerned with the attributes of the .transit system i n s p e c i f i c s p a t i a l areas. This may a l t e r n a t i v e l y be defined as the l e v e l of service. \ The chief technique proposed to measure program inputs i s through a measure of a c c e s s i b i l i t y . Access-i b i l i t y of the t r a n s i t system, however, i s not as perva-sive as the a c c e s s i b i l i t y of automobiles. In p a r t i c u l a r , the fixed route c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of most t r a n s i t operations sharply focusses a c c e s s i b i l i t y both temporally and spa-t i a l l y . A c c e s s i b i l i t y , however, i s an elusive concept. I t seeks to measure the e f f e c t i v e nearness of poten t i a l opportunities. Hence, a r b i t r a r y standards must be u t i -l i z e d to define what constitutes an opportunity. Because a c c e s s i b i l i t y seeks to quantify the e f f e c -tive} nearness of opportunities and a c t i v i t i e s , i t ' s meas-urement defines the interface between the transportation system and the land use system. Changes i n either the land use system or the transportation system then, w i l l change the a c c e s s i b i l i t y of a l l areas and a c t i v i t i e s within the region. P r a c t i c a l l y , however, small changes are not l i k e l y to cause any s i g n i f i c a n t impacts. More-over, the suggested measurement techniques are too crude to record such small changes. MEASUREMENT OF ACCESSIBILITY In order to develop a c c e s s i b i l i t y measures which are related to goal achievement, i t i s necessary to construct indices which re l a t e to a s p e c i f i c goal. I t should be stressed that there w i l l be a strong i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between a c c e s s i b i l i t y measures oriented toward a l t e r n a t i v e goals. Hence, i t i s not appropriate to consider measures which re l a t e to d i f f e r e n t goals to be additive i n any way. In general, the proposed measures seek to quantify the number of opportunities related to objective " y % which are accessible to a region "within a reasonable time period". The term "within a reasonable time period" i s a l o c a l standard but should represent r e a l i s t i c con-d i t i o n s . Lengthening the time considered reasonable w i l l obviously increase the degree of a c c e s s i b i l i t y mea-sured. However, unreasonable time standards w i l l pro-duce unreasonable measures of a c c e s s i b i l i t y which w i l l be of doubtful u t i l i t y . A l l parts of the t r a n s i t system can l i k e l y be reached within a three hour period. I f t h i s was established as the l o c a l standard, every area served by t r a n s i t would have i d e n t i c a l a c c e s s i b i l i t y . Further, "a reasonable time period" should attempt to measure the door to door t r a v e l time, not only the vehicle t r a v e l time. Refinements of the technique might seek to weight "out of vehicle" time more heavily as i s often done i n modal s p l i t studies. Another requirement w i l l be to quantify the number, of a c t i v i t i e s and opportunities within a "reasonable walking distance" from the t r a n s i t stop or s t a t i o n . The term, "a reasonable walking distance" i s s i m i l a r to a l o c a l time standard. Most evidence indicates that r i d e r s h i p drops o f f rapidly with distance from the t r a n s i t stop or s t a t i o n . Hence, the choice of a standard should r e f l e c t r e a l i s t i c conditions. The q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of opportunities w i l l be the most d i f f i c u l t task i n the construction of measures. Even small areas are not homogenous i n density of devel-opment. Hence, a d i r e c t proportional estimate of t o t a l area land use c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the area served by t r a n s i t w i l l not be sufficient^. In as much as most land use information w i l l come from another agency, i t would be desirable i f the source agency adopted an information system capable of; disaggregation to the bldpk face l e v e l . k .In some cases another type of measure would be appropriate as would be the case i f a park & ride type operation was operated. ' In the absence of such a system, i t would be necessary for f i e l d observers to make estimates based upon prof-e s s i o n a l judgements and land use information disaggre-gated to the planning area level. The question of what activ i t i e s to consider in the construction of an accessibility measure is a serious one. On the one hand, inclusion of a greater number of cate-gories may better illuminate the actual level of service of the/ transit system. On the other hand, inclusion of . tpb many measures would unnecessarily increase the cost of the proposed measurement system without necessarily increasing the quality of decision making. In this study, only .employment and households have been included in accessibility measures. This tends to bias the measures towards employment trips. It is f e l t , that for bus system transit, shopping and recreation type trips would be very closely correlated with employ-ment, simply because of the spatial structure of the city. This may not be true for a l l transit systems. In cases where exclusive right of way are utilized, as in the case of r a i l transit, system orientation may not focus on other a c t i v i t i e s . Hence, i t may be appropriate for some local areas to consider more than employment opportunities. I t i s proposed that zone to zone t r a v e l time be computed using a network model. In areas where headway i s great, assumptions might be made concerning the average wait time. The t o t a l time required to t r a v e l between a c t i v i t i e s would then consist of; walking time, vehicle time, trans-f e r time, and walking time. 6.5 PROGRAM OUTPUTS Immediate impacts from a community t r a n s i t system w i l l consist of the r i d e r s who a c t u a l l y patronize the system. I t has been shown that most evaluations of t r a n s i t service u t i l i z e t h i s measure of a system's worth. An underlying premise of t h i s thesis i s that not a l l t r a n s i t t r i p s are homogenous. Hence, systematic measurement of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of i n d i v i d u a l t r i p s w i l l provide an in d i c a t i o n of the degree to which goals are being achieved. I t i s important to again d i s t i n g u i s h between pro-gram output and program e f f e c t . The actual output of a t r a n s i t system provides i n d i c a t i v e information as to the degree to which objectives are being met. A d i r e c t l i n k to program ef f e c t ( i e . the actual degree of goal achieve-ment) i s usually not possible. This i s due to the d i f f -i c u l t y of cl o s e l y measuring actual goal achievement and the high degree of e x t e r n a l i t i e s associated with t r a n s i t . This may best be i l l u s t r a t e d by way of example. Assume a goal f o r community t r a n s i t has been estab-lished which seeks to r e d i s t r i b u t e wealth from high 159 socio-economic groups to lower socio-economic groups. As an operational objective, the t r a n s i t operators increase the ease with which lower socio-economic groups cf|n^ reach-appropriate - employment* After some time, measurement indicates that the number of employment t r i p s by lower socio-economic groups increases by 20 percent. While t h i s might provide some in d i c a t i o n that the operational objective was being met, i t says nothing about achievement of the community g o a l O t o r e d i s t r i b u t e wealth. Even i f i t can be demonstrated that a greater proportion of resources (largely subsidized by the higher socio-economic group), was devoted to the lower group, i t i s not possible to make any l i n k to the higher l e v e l goal. I t may well be that the t r a n s i t investment precipitated higher rent payments. Hence, the o v e r a l l e f f e c t on the broad goal i s indeterminant. MEASUREMENT OF PROGRAM OUTPUT Detailed monitoring of the t r i p behaviour of i n d i -vidua Is w i l l require a major commitment from t r a n s i t operators. A systematic on-board passenger survey w i l l be required. Are these requirements excessive? The sur-vey of 26 Canadian and American t r a n s i t operators (Appen-dix A); revealed that f i v e operators already administer annual t r a n s i t origin-destination type surveys. Another nine operators reported that they conducted boarding and a l i g h t i n g surveys at least once a year. In addition, other t r a n s i t surveys requiring on-board observers are common. B.C.Hydro, fo r example, reports that they ad-minister average fare surveys at least twice a year on a l l *6 routes. I f origin-destination type surveys were sys-tematically administered, there would be no need f o r these other surveys. The current practice f o r those operators who already administer origin-destination type surveys i s to admin-i s t e r a l l surveys on a single day or within the span of a few days. Consideration should be given to survey ad-ministration on a route by route and area by area basis. In t h i s way, s t a f f could more e a s i l y be spread out through-out the year. Organizationally, the tasks of impact monitoring would become more routinized. S t a f f could 5. A boarding and a l i g h t i n g survey determines where passengers board and a l i g h t but does not t i e an i n d i v i d u a l passenger o r i g i n to a destination. 6. An average fare survey determines the fare paying character a s t i c s of passengers. From these surveys, operators estimate patronage on the basis of farebox receipts. more e a s i l y digest increments of new information and make desirable changes with less e f f o r t than would be the case . i f a large scale system-wide survey was conducted. Another consideration when implementing such a sys-tem would be the length of the review period. A majority of firms who have established systematic origin-destina-tion sampling do so on an annual basis. This period seems more of an a s t r o l o g i c a l coincidence than a reasoned decision. For most parts of the t r a n s i t system, a review period of 24 months may be as e f f e c t i v e . 6.. 6 THE GOALS OF TRANSIT The goals of t r a n s i t have been extensively researched and reviewed and are documented i n Chapter 3. Goals are important to the proposed t r a n s i t monitoring system. Selection of input and output measures has been guided by the twin c r i t e r i a of relevancy and f e a s i b i l i t y . The c r i t e r i o n of relevancy demands that proposed measures have a demonstrable relationship to the s p e c i f i c objective being sought. Considerations of budget and measurement limitations preclude inc l u s i o n of a l l relevant measures. More importantly, the decision making process i s not l i k e l y to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y enhanced beyond a certain l e v e l of information. Not a l l goals have been considered i n t h i s report. In general, the c r i t e r i o n f o r se l e c t i n g goals has been de-pendent upon the degree to which they are relevant to the service function of t r a n s i t planning. Nor w i l l a l l l o c a l areas hold s i m i l a r goals. It i s doubtful whether one l o c a l area would e f f e c t i v e l y u t i l i z e every measure suggested. Moreover, some goals, which may be relevant i n certain areas may not have been included i n th i s report. In s t i l l other cases, i t may be desirable to modify proposed measures to r e f l e c t unique l o c a l conditions. While the goals of t r a n s i t d i f f e r widely between areas, a taxonomy of goals and objectives has been f o r -mulated. This c l a s s i f i c a t i o n groups goals which may be met by the same t r a n s i t function. Four thematic goal areas have been i d e n t i f i e d . 1. Goals Which Relate to "Social Objectives This set of goals i s primarily concerned with the provision of mobility to groups who may be experi-encing a transportation handicap, primarily because they do not have access to an automobile. I d e n t i -f i e d groups include the poor, the young, the old, the handicapped, and those who simply do not have access to the family car. The provision of mobility to the poor has been esp e c i a l l y emphasized. A min-o r i t y of p o l i c y makers expressed the b e l i e f that t r a n s i t could be used to ef f e c t a r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of income. 1 64 2» Goals Which Relate to Land Use Objectives This set of goals i s primarily concerned with the coordination of t r a n s i t planning and regional land use planning. In some cases, t r a n s i t i s expected to play a leading r o l e i n the implementation of regional land use plans. In other cases, t r a n s i t ' s role i s seen as supportive. A major theme of t h i s goal i s that t r a n s i t w i l l promote more compact ur-ban settlement patterns. Many areas stress the r o l e t r a n s i t may have supporting the Central Business D i s t r i c t . A minority of areas plan to use t r a n s i t to promote concentrated cores of r e t a i l and o f f i c e type employment apart from the C.B.D.. 3. Goals Which Relate to a Reduction of T r a f f i c  Congestion This i s the t r a d i t i o n a l goal of t r a n s i t . Reducing or slowing the rate of growth of t r a f f i c congestion ;can reduce the need to construct new automobile f a c i l i t i e s . A recurring thought i s that t r a n s i t i s the least costly means of meeting future t r a v e l requirements. 165 4. Goals Relating to Energy and Environmental Objectives Generally, i t i s believed that the higher capacity modes are more energy e f f i c i e n t that the private automobile. In addition, a i r p o l l u t i o n , on a per person basis, i s believed to be less from t r a n s i t than from automobiles. Consequently, t h i s objective seeks a general diversion of automobile t r a f f i c to t r a n s i t . Another aspect of t h i s objective seeks to promote safer urban areas and to reduce i n j u r y due to t r a f f i c accidents 6.7 PROPOSED INDICATORS RELATING TO SOCIAL OBJECTIVES The notion that t r a n s i t can provide s i g n i f i c a n t benefits to individuals s u f f e r i n g from some form of trans-portation disadvantage i s central to t h i s objective. Yet, as has been noted i n Chapter 4, t r a n s i t ' s p o t e n t i a l '^is severely constrained by a host of non-transportation factors. In cases where t r a n s i t i s intended to be used as a transportation mode by those with some form of function-jBl disability, ( i e . the eld e r l y and handicapped), a r c h i -t e c t u r a l barriers and the requirement that individuals undertake lengthy walks to gain access may render t r a n s i t inaccessible. .Where i t i s intended to enable disadvantaged groups to gain wider employment opportunities, t r a n s i t often,-does not e f f e c t i v e l y serve areas where these opportunities are a v a i l a b l e . Moreover, the low density c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of low s k i l l employment places does not lend i t s e l f to e f f i c i e n t mass t r a n s i t . Transit i s considered by some as an income r e d i s t r i -bution device, yet i t i s not clear empirically or theo-r e t i c a l l y what the ultimate e f f e c t of subsidies may be. In a l o c a l area where t r a n s i t i s used to support long distance t r a v e l between suburban r e s i d e n t i a l areas and the central c i t y , the effect may be regressive. In addition, t h e o r e t i c a l evidence suggests the benefits of increased t r a n s i t service may induce s p i l l over effects on other sec tors. Hence the benefits from t r a n s i t may be reduced somewhat by, say, increased rental rates. These arguements are reit e r a t e d only to expose the inconclusive t h e o r e t i c a l and empirical foundations of the work to date and to place the objectives oriented toward the promotion of s o c i a l welfare i n the proper perspective. Suggested Operational Objectives Where s p e c i f i c operational objectives are given i n this thesis i t i s done only to be i l l u s t r a t i v e of the type of objective that might be pursued by t r a n s i t man-agement. Obviously, operational objectives w i l l depend on the type of goal held by the community at large. The following examples, then, are representative of the types of goals uncovered in Chapter 3. 1. Provide increased employment opportunities, accessible by transit, to lower socio-economic groups. 2. Provide increased employment opportunities, accessible by transit, to individuals without acaess to an automobile. This group specific-a l l y includes the young, the old, and the hand-icapped. 3. Reduce the total cost of travel (user charge + time cost) for a l l socio-economic groups. 4. Effect a redistribution of income from higher socio-economic groups to lower socio-economic groups through transit. Table 6.3 presents specific proposals to measure program inputs and program outputs related to the obtain ment of social objectives. TABLE 6.3 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to the Achievement of S o c i a l Objectives PROGRAMME INPUTS PROGRAMME OUTPUTS The number of low income households, accessible to t r a n s i t , which can reach (x) percent of low s k i l l jobs, accessible to t r a n s i t , within a reasonable t r a v e l l i n g time. The number of employment t r i p s per day made by low income residents. The number of father' t r a n s i t t r i p s per day made by low income residents. The number of adults, over age 16, accessible to t r a n s i t , who do not have regular access to an automobile and who can reach (x) percent of t o t a l employment opportunities within a reasonable t r a v e l time. The number of young people, below age 17, who are accessible to t r a n s i t . The operating p r o f i t (loss) per person, per t r a n s i t t r i p , per socio-economic group to the tr a n s i t system. The t o t a l 'generalized cost' (time costs + user fare), per person, per socio-economic group. The number of elde r l y people who are accessible to t r a n s i t . 170 Data Requirements fo r Measurement of Inputs and Outputs This set of measures w i l l require a suitable d e f i -n i t i o n of several terms. The following examples are given f o r i l l u s t r a t i v e purposes. Actual choice of terms w i l l be a matter f o r l o c a l choice and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of l o c a l land use information. Employment opportunities which conceiv-ably might be accessible to lower socio-economic groups i n terms of i n s t i t u t i o n -a l constraints. This set of jobs might include manufacturing,, processing, r e t a i l sales and c l e r i c a l employment. I t might be worthwhile to consider i n d u s t r i a l type of employment separ-a t e l y . Empirical work (Wohl, 1970; Falocchio, 1973.) suggests these types of jobs are least served by t r a n s i t . The intent of including low income households i s to insure that those individuals most i n need of mobility are considered i n the planning process. Hence, i t would be desirable to set a r e l a t i v e l y low cutoff point i n the d e f i n i t i o n of t h i s term. A cutoff point which included households i n the f i r s t q u a r t i l e of family incomes, fo r exam-ple, might be appropriate. low s k i l l jobs low income household t r a n s i t dependent Those individuals who do not have access to an automobile. This question would' l i k e l y be asked on a passenger survey 171 and might be estimated on the basis of demographic information and the i n -cidence of automobile ownership in a planning area. operating profit (loss) per socio-economic group That portion of costs and revenues that can be allocated to specific groups. This allocation could be made on the basis of passenger surveys. It would be best to express this measure In terms of passenger miles of travel rather than the average cost per passenger carried as is standard Industry practice. This measure would not be affected by unusual-ly high numbers of transfer passengers and is sensitive to the length of t r i p . It is noteworthy that some respondents to Horn's survey (1977,p.19) indicated that route revenue was unacceptable in integrated networks. total The total of direct user costs and general- the cost of time travelled. It is ized cost not clear from empirical work what the actual cost of time travelled i s , a l -though estimates range from $1,50 to $4,50, Time costs could be computed from the zone -to-zone travel time matrix derived from the program input measures. Hypothetical Example of Use Through the program input measures, i t i s noted that the regional t r a n s i t system i s heavily oriented toward s k i l l e d jobs. In p a r t i c u l a r , i n d u s t r i a l jobs are very poorly served. About 55 percent of the low income households are accessible to at least Ik percent of i n -d u s t r i a l jobs. However, only 15 percent of low income households are accessible to at least 30 percent of i n -d u s t r i a l jobs. An attempt i s made to better serve i n d u s t r i a l l o c a -ti o n s . Four new t r a n s i t routes are added providing a di r e c t l i n k between a ce n t r a l c i t y low income neighbor-hood and suburban i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s . Vehicles normally assigned to a-"suburban express route are u t i l i z e d . These vehicles normally ' Ideadhead" from the central c i t y to the suburban r e s i d e n t i a l neighborhood. In addition to the route additions, small changes are made i n the scheduling of several small feeder routes so as to enable easy trans-f e r r i n g . In s u b s e q u e n t p e r i o d s , t h e f o l l o w i n g changes a r e n o t e d i n program i n p u t s and program o u t p u t s . (See Table 6.4) Note: This h y p o t h e t i c a l example has ' been p u r p o s e l y s i m p l i f i e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f i l l u s t r a t i o n . I t i s d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r a c t u a l c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d be as u n c o m p l i c a t e d and U n c o n s t r a i n e d a s has been p o r t r a y e d . Closure I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o remember t h a t t h e f a c t t h a t more low income p e o p l e a r e r i d i n g t r a n s i t s a y s n o t h i n g a b o u t t h e h i g h e r l e v e l g o a l t o i n c r e a s e employment o p p o r -t u n i t i e s t o low income r e s i d e n t s . Rather, - t h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e t o i n c r e a s e t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f i n d u s t r i a l j o b s t o low income h o u s e h o l d s i s b e i n g m e t . Further i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e e x t e n s i o n i s h a v i n g some p o s i t i v e i m p a c t . The d i s t i n c t i o n between a c h i e v i n g a n o p e r a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e and m e e t i n g a community g o a l c a n n o t be o v e r -s t a t e d . The d e g r e e t o w h i c h a community g o a l i s b e i n g TABLE 6.4 Changes in Programme Inputs and Programme Oututs Related to Hypothetical Example (Aggregated Urban Scale Measures) PERIOD P R O G R A M M E INPUTS P R O G R A M M E OUTPUTS BASE 14 percent of low income households accessible to at least 30 percent of How s k i l l ' j j o b s . 1040 daily employment trips by low income residents, per day.* BASE + 1 26 percent of low income households accessible to at least 30 percent of 'low s k i l l ' jobs. 1830 daily employment trips by low income residents, per day. ** BASE + 2 29 percent of low income households accessible to at least 30 percent of 'low s k i l l ' jobs. 2375 daily employment trips by low income residents, per day. *** * system daily ridership :150,000 ** system daily ridership :158,000 *** system daily ridership :162,000 met can only be determined i n a much broader context. F i n a l l y , an ultimate determination of the worth of the new t r a n s i t routes would necessarily involve con-siderations of the e f f i c i e n c y of the new route. The trad o f f between e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness, however, should be f a c i l i t a t e d with the type of information presented here. 6.8 PROPOSED INDICATORS RELATING TO LAND USE OBJECTIVES Current objectives-to u t i l i z e t r a n s i t as a land use shaper d i f f e r widely i n the role which t r a n s i t i s expect-ed to play. Objectives to support the CBD see t r a n s i t responding to a demand whether t h i s demand i s latent or manifest. In addition, the competitive advantage of the automobile i s l i k e l y to be lessened i n the face of wide-spread t r a f f i c congestion. Objectives to influence the development of secondary centers and to influence the pattern of residential.development see the ro l e of t r a n s i t to be one of e s s e n t i a l l y creating demand. Clearly, the difference between types of land use objectives w i l l have di f f e r e n t implications as to the poten t i a l of t r a n s i t to meet them. The l i n k between land use and transportation i s found i n urban land economics. Transportation, however, i s only one aspect of a myriad of relevant factors respon-s i b l e f o r changes i n the i n t e r n a l structure of the c i t y . Furthermore, i n urban areas where a basic transportation network consisting of a series of streets and highways i s already i n place - and t h i s includes most areas i n North America - the addition of improved f a c i l i t i e s w i l l l i k e l y have less and less of an e f f e c t . The effects of transit, which carries only a small percentage of daily person trips and no goods, is lik e l y to be even less. It's greatest potential would appear to be i t ' s possible effect upon the location of a c t i v i -ties requiring great numbers of people or dependent upon a large volume of people passing. This would include r e t a i l trade and office employment. With reference to the effect of transit upon residential development patterns, the accumulating evidence suggests i t ' s impact is minimal (See Richardson, 1971; Michelson, 1972). There is some theoretical evidence which suggests that the net effect of transit on development w i l l be to increase sprawl (Batty, 1974). The supply of transit services w i l l enable natural agglomeration economies to come into play and promote the centralization of spec-ialized r e t a i l and control a c t i v i t i e s . At the same time, individuals w i l l be able to choose peripheral, low den-sity housing and w i l l be able to commute into the central city within a reasonable time. If such a scenario were actually the case, the provision of transit services might actually fuel the growth in regional travel demands. 178 Current attempts to use t r a n s i t to influence the development of concentrated employment Centers plan to increase and sharpen the focus of t r a n s i t a c c e s s i b i l i t y on designated areas. There -has been l i t t l e success i n attempts to influence the pattern of r e s i d e n t i a l devel-.7 opment through the use of t r a n s i t a c c e s s i b i l i t y . In many cases, however, the placement of large r e s i d e n t i a l developments are consciously planned considering the a v a i l a b i l i t y of t r a n s i t s e r v i c e . In s t i l l other casesj t r a n s i t responds to the placement of new development. Past attempts to monitor the impact of t r a n s i t upon development patterns have usually u t i l i z e d records of r e a l property assessments and made inferences based on the d i f f e r e n t rates of growth of assessed value i n small s p a t i a l areas. An alt e r n a t i v e approach has been to a c t u a l l y monitor changes i n land use i n small s p a t i a l areas through exi s t i n g record systems such as building permits or through more d i r e c t means. A serious problem relates to the d i f f i c u l t y of separating the effects of t r a n s i t from a l l other factors. Attempts to measure 7. Of course, i n the s t r a t e g i c land use planning process, the s p a t i a l a l l o c a t i o n of transportation routes and ser-vices i n general, has a profound effect on r e s i d e n t i a l patterns. The use of focused 'transit a c c e s s i b i l i t y , appears to have minimum e f f e c t s . the effect of t r a n s i t on gross r e s i d e n t i a l patterns t y p i -c a l l y employs cross s e c t i o n a l analysis between c i t i e s having varying degrees of t r a n s i t orientation. In t h i s report, i t i s proposed that a direct trans-portation measure would be appropriate for use by a tran-s i t planning organization. The ultimate test of the worth of a t r a n s i t oriented land use plan which seeks to promote a concentrated employment center w i l l be the number of people who actually u t i l i z e the t r a n s i t service and are employed i n the area. Moreover, inferences about land use can be made on the basis of t r i p generation. Hence, some measure of the degree to which a t r a n s i t oriented land use plan is; successful over time can be inferred from records of actual t r i p behaviour. No suitable i n d i c a t o r of the impact of t r a n s i t upon gross r e s i d e n t i a l pattern has been formulated. Batty (1974), argues the o v e r a l l effect of t r a n s i t may be to increase the separation between place of employment and residence. It i s therefore suggested that information concerning the average length of employment t r i p by t r a n s i t be collected by small s p a t i a l area and compared over time. f The information suggested to be collected concern-ing the nature of t r a n s i t t r i p behaviour between d i f f e r e n t s p a t i a l areas w i l l be useful to ascertain the degree to which operational objectives are being met. Beyond thi s l e v e l of planning, however, information of t h i s sort, together with information concerning automobile t r i p behaviour could be of substantial value to regional planning organizations. Suggested Operational Objective Increase the number of households accessible to designated growth areas. Closure Does the fact that employment t r i p s made to the area by t r a n s i t are increasing indicate that the regional goal to influence development i s working? Clearly, i t does not. Rather some evidence i s presented that t r a n s i t ' s supportive role i s having some impact. Combined with other information concerning the use of automobiles, and d i r e c t development a c t i v i t y , however, a regional plan-ning organization would be able to make a more reasoned assessment of the success of a p a r t i c u l a r land use plan. TABLE 6.5 Programme'Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to the Achievement of Land Use Objectives PROGRAMME INPUTS PROGRAMME OUTPUTS The number of employment t r i p s per day, by tr a n s i t , made to a designated growth area. The number of households which are accessible to a designated growth area by t r a n s i t . The number of t r a n s i t shopping t r i p s per day, which are being made to a designated growth area. The average length of employment t r i p s by t r a n s i t to designated growth areas. • The average length of employment t r i p s by t r a n s i t (regional average) 6.9 PROPOSED MEASURES RELATING TO LEVELS OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION Strategies to reduce congestion follow a s i m i l a r theme as strategies which seek to influence land use. In general, service i s emphasized toward areas where levels of congestion are high. Where automobile congestion i s great on p a r t i c u l a r links of the transportation system ( i e . bridges, main a r t e r i e s , etc.) a general diversion of p o t e n t i a l automobile t r i p s to t r a n s i t i s sought. The employment t r i p i s p a r t i c u l a r l y relevant i n t h i s measure. Congestion levels are usually greatest and cause the most severe problems during peak hours. This objective i s the t r a d i t i o n a l t r a n s i t goal. Perhaps for that reason, t r a n s i t ' s effectiveness i n reduc-ing congestion i s more consistently monitored than other t r a n s i t objectives. The objective to reduce congestion has many u l t i -mate ends. I t i s believed that a successful t r a n s i t program w i l l reduce the need to construct new automobile f a c i l i t i e s . Hence, there w i l l be less need to disrupt existing neighborhoods. A reduction of congestion may also lead to more environmentally a t t r a c t i v e and safer areas. The p o t e n t i a l for t r a n s i t to reduce congestion i s perhaps i t ' s most c l e a r l y obtainable goal. In th i s i n -stance, t r a n s i t i s responding to demand. Existi n g l e v e l of service for automobiles i s not l i k e l y to be great; hence, the competitive advantage of automobiles i s l i k e l y to be lessened. Moreover, the density of t r i p ends i s l i k e l y to be great - an important factor f o r t r a n s i t . Despite these advantages, there are some pot e n t i a l constraints. Some t h e o r e t i c a l work indicates that t r i p s which t r a n s i t i s able to divert w i l l be quickly replaced by automobile drivers who did not formerly make the t r i p . Furthermore, i t i s possible that many of the individuals which transit, does carry would, i n the absence of t r a n s i t simply obtain rides from other individuals who do drive. Hence, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to assess the eff e c t of tran s i t on congestion levels without also considering i t ' s effect on other parts of the transportation and urban sys terns. I t i s clear that any assessment of- t r a n s i t ' s im-pact on regional congestion objectives can only be made through analysis of many factors. Pr^ent'^ohitbrihg^'techhiques usually employ screen l i n e surveys of aggregate t r a n s i t t r i p s . While such techniques are valuable, they do have some serious draw-backs. Many urban t r a n s i t systems have route structures focused on the downtown and other congested areas. In-dividuals who might wish to t r a v e l from point "A" to point "B" by t r a n s i t may find that i t necessitates a downtown t r i p s o l e l y because of route orientations. These individuals then, are not evidence of t r a n s i t im-pact on downtown congestion. Suggested Operational Objective Increase the number of households accessible to t r a n s i t i n area "A" which are accessible to employ-ment opportunities i n area "B" during peak t r a v e l hours. Where: area "A" generates a high number of employ-ment t r i p s to congested area "B". TABLE 6.6 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to the Acheivement of Congestion Reduction Objectives Program Inputs Progam Outputs The number to t r a n s i t t r a v e l to ' employment of households accessible t © i n area 'A1 which can X' percent of t o t a l opportunities i n area 'B'. * 0 The number of employment t r i p ends in congested area ' B 1 by t r a n s i t i n time period 'Y* The number of t r a n s i t t r i p ends i n congested area 'B1 i n time period iyt * where area 'A' i s known to generate a high number of employment t r i p s to congested area ' B' during peak hours. 6.10 PROPOSED MEASURES RELATING TO ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT OBJECTIVES' Objectives to meet national energy conservation goals and to reduce regional a i r p o l l u t i o n through tran-s i t are both met through the same transportation function. E s s e n t i a l l y , what i s sought i s a general diversion of potential automobile drivers to t r a n s i t . I t has been shown i n Chapter 4 that t r a n s i t ' s im-pact on national energy consumption i s l i k e l y to be small even assuming the most favourable conditions for t r a n s i t . The greatest p o t e n t i a l f o r public transportation i n t h i s areai'is t r a n s i t ' s a b i l i t y to u t i l i z e a l t e r n a t i v e energy sources. An important aspect of t o t a l transportation energy use was shown to be Vcapital energy" u t i l i z e d i n the con-st r u c t i o n of vehicles and guideways. This i s p a r t i c u l a r -i l y relevant when areas are considering fixed guideway type rapid t r a n s i t systems. Of a l l the modes, both public and private, the urban t r a n s i t bus i s the most e f f i c i e n t i n terms of both absolute and present load f a c t o r s , ( F e l s , 1974; Yunker 'andSinha, 1975)• Technological advancement i n the de-sign of more energy e f f i c i e n t automobiles, however, i s progressing much faster then the design of more energy e f f i c i e n t t r a n s i t vehicles. In the immediate future, national l e g i s l a t i o n designed to increase the energy e f f i c i e n c y of automobiles w i l l be f a r more s i g n i f i c a n t than the energy conservation impact of t r a n s i t . An important aspect of modal energy e f f i c i e n c y i s . the average load factor or u t i l i z a t i o n rate. Trends i n Canadian t r a n s i t operations indicate the marglnal energy e f f i c i e n c y of enhanced t r a n s i t programmes i s much less than the average energy e f f i c i e n c y . Emissions of a i r pollutants by t r a n s i t vehicles are not d i r e c t l y related to energy consumption. There i s , however, a strong relationship between the u t i l i z a -t i o n rate or load factor of t r a n s i t and per-person emis-sions of pollutants. Operators should i n i t i a t e or continue systematic 187 monitoring of i n d i v i d u a l vehicle emissions i n t h e i r main-tenance programs. Data c o l l e c t i o n problems, however, preclude i n c l u s i o n of direct emission monitoring c r i t e r i a within the service monitoring framework suggested. Rather, i t i s proposed that u t i l i z a t i o n rate be chosen as the surrogate measure of vehicle emissions over time. For i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s i t projects, the most relevant i n d i c a t o r of t r a n s i t ' s impact would seek to measure the diver-sion of present day automobile passengers along a certain corridor to t r a n s i t . This type of indicator has not been included here as i t f a i l s to account fo r growth and i s most suited to project evaluation rather than program monitoring. More seriously, the suggested indicators f a i l to account for the effect that generated t r a f f i c may have on the indices. I f , f o r example, low fares were responsible fo r some additional t r a f f i c , the effect would be to i n f l a t e the i n d i c a t o r s . Nevertheless, even given these t h e o r e t i c a l objections, i n c l u s i o n of the measures put f o r t h here would serve to a l e r t management i f a policy was a c t u a l l y regressive (ie. i f , over time, t r a n s i t i s less u t i l i z e d i n s p e c i f i c areas). Suggested Operational Objectives 1.. Provide a high l e v e l of t r a n s i t service through-out the region. 2. Attempt to increase u t i l i z a t i o n rate of vehicles. TABLE 6.7 Programme Inputs and Programme Outputs Related to the Acheivement of Energy and Environmental Objectives PROGAM INPUTS PROGAM OUTPUTS The number of passenger miles on the t r a n s i t system per day. The number of households access-i b l e to t r a n s i t which can reach •Y1 percent of t o t a l regional employment opportunities. The number of households accessible to t r a n s i t . The number cf passengers per day carried by the t r a n s i t system. The u t i l i z a t i o n rate of t r a n s i t operations. * The average number of passenger r;ii miles per unit of energy. The marginal number of passengers miles per unit of energy* * passenger miles vehicle miles This review period compared to last review period. 189 6.11 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The implementation fo the proposed t r a n s i t monitoring system as set out here w i l l require a major commitment from t r a n s i t operators. Horn's work (1977) suggests the planning departments of most operators are understaffed and oriented toward operational factors such as vehicle scheduling. While work of t h i s nature w i l l continue to be required, questions as to the extent to which t r a n s i t i s ac t u a l l y meeting l o c a l objectives must be e x p l i c i t l y addressed. The proposed system i s intended to f i l l t h i s need. A fundamental premise of t h i s thesis holds that the lack of relevant information i n the t r a n s i t planning process i s a serious constraint to ef f e c t i v e service planning. The ultimate t e s t of the legitamacy of t h i s hypotheses w i l l require actual implementation of the proposed system i n a r e a l world s i t u -a t i o n and car e f u l evaluation a f t e r a suitable time period. The cost of implementation of the monitoring process suggested here has not been ob j e c t i v e l y determined but Horn's v.'ork (1977) and interviews with l o c a l t r a n s i t operators suggest that personnel required to operate the system are already available but are engaged i n data c o l l e c t i o n tasks which would be rendered obsolete i f the proposal were to be implemented. The main problems appears to be i n the e f f e c t i v e 190 reorganization fo exi s t i n g s t a f f . Given the current conditions characterized by a lack of relevant information, informal a l l o c a t i v e decision-making and the mounting l e v e l s of public subsidies, however, the relevant questions do not center around the incremental costs of implementation. Rather, i t i s whether we intend to a l l o c a t e available t r a n s i t resouces r a t i o n a l l y i n response to r e a l community needs and objectives or wheter these resources w i l l be. allocated according to p o l i t i c a l whim. R E F E R E N C E S Alcaly, Roger E., "Transportation and Urban Land Values: A Review of the Theoretical Literature", LAND ECONOMICS, (Vol.52, Feb. 1976) Alonso, William, "A Theory of the Urban Land Market", in Larry S. Bourne (ed.), Internal Structure of the City., (New York, Oxford University Press, 1971, pp. 154 - 159) American Public Transit Association (APTA), Transit Fact Book,  1976., (Washington, D.C., 1976) Appleyard, Donald, Social and Environmental Policies for  Transportation in the 1970*3." 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