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Canadian housing policy and the future demand for housing : a demographic analysis and a look into the… Hamilton-Wright, Heather Jane 1977

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C A N A D I A N H O U S I N G P O L I C Y A N D T H E F U T U R E D E M A N D F O R H O U S I N G - A D E M O G R A P H I C A N A L Y S I S A N D A L O O K I N T O T H E F U T U R E H E A T H E R J A N E H A M I L T O N - W R I G H T B.Sc., Q u e e n ' s U n i v e r s i t y , 1970 A T H E S I S S U B M I T T E D I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L L M E N T O F T H E R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R T H E D E G R E E O F M A S T E R O F S C I E N C E IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION i n T H E F A C U L T Y O F C O M M E R C E A N D B U S I N E S S A D M I N I S T R A T I O N U R B A N L A N D E C O N O M I C S D I V I S I O N by W e a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A F e b r u a r y , 1977 Heather Jane Hamilton-Wright In presenting th i s thes is in pa r t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary shal l make it f ree ly ava i l ab le for reference and study. I fur ther agree that permission for extensive copying of th is thesis for scho lar ly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representat ives. It is understood that copying or pub l i ca t ion of th is thes is fo r f inanc ia l gain sha l l not be allowed without my writ ten permission. Department of The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 W e s b r o o k P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a V 6 T 1WS Date VAI A B S T R A C T B e t w e e n 19.51 a n d 1971 t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f C a n a d a i n c r e a s e d 50 p e r c e n t f r o m 1 4 . 1 m i l l i o n t o 21.5 m i l l i o n . S i m u l t a n e o u s w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e , s i g n i f i c a n t c h a n g e s i n t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n w e r e o c c u r r i n g . A g e d i s t r i b u -t i o n s s h i f t e d a s t h e p o s t - w a r b a b y b o o m m a t u r e d . T h e n o n -f a m i l y p o r t i o n o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s t o c k i n c r e a s e d f r o m 13.3 t o 18 p e r c e n t . G r o w i n g p r o p o r t i o n s o f h o u s e h o l d s w e r e l o c a t i n g i n t h e u r b a n a r e a s . H o w e v e r , t h e r e h a s b e e n v i r t u -a l l y n o a t t e m p t t o m o d i f y C a n a d i a n h o u s i n g p o l i c y t o b e t t e r s u i t t h e c h a n g i n g p o p u l a t i o n . H o m e - o w n e r s h i p a n d t h e s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g c o n t i n u e t o b e e n c o u r a g e d . T h i s t h e s i s e x a m i n e s t h e s e a n d o t h e r d e m o g r a p h i c c h a n g e s a n d a n a l y s e s r e c e n t p r o j e c t i o n s o f t h e C a n a d i a n p o p u l a t i o n I n a n a t t e m p t t o d e t e r m i n e t h e s u i t a b i l i t y o f c u r -r e n t h o u s i n g p o l i c y i n t h e l i g h t o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n s . W h i l e r e c o g n i z i n g t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f u s i n g p r o j e c t i o n s b a s e d o n t r e n d s , u n t i l a b e t t e r m o d e l i s p r o v i d e d , t h i s ^ s t u d y i l l u s t r a t e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t o d a y ' s h o u s i n g p o l i c y m a y b e m i s - s h a p i n g t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k f o r f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n s i f c u r r e n t t r e n d s c o n t i n u e . i i T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S P a g e A B S T R A C T i i L I S T O F F I G U R E S • . . . v i i L I S T O F T A B L E S v i i i A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S x i i C h a p t e r 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N 1 1.1 T h e E c o n o m i c s o f H o u s i n g M a r k e t s 2 1.2 H o u s i n g S u b m a r k e t s 4 1.3 H o u s i n g D e m a n d 7 1.4 S u m m a r y 11 2 C A N A D I A N H O U S I N G P O L I C Y 15 2.1 T h e H i s t o r y o f C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g P o l i c y 18 2.2 F e d e r a l H o u s i n g A c t i v i t y - D i r e c t I n v o l v e m e n t 21 2.2.1 N H A - I n s u r e d L e n d i n g 21 2.2.2 C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n 25 2.2.3 H o u s i n g 27 2.2.3.1 P u b l i c H o u s i n g 27 2.2.3.2 H o m e - O w n e r s h i p 28' 2.2.3-3 $500 H o m e B u y e r G r a n t 34 2.2.3-4 H o m e I m p r o v e m e n t L o a n s 34 2.2.3.5 A s s i s t e d R e n t a l 34 2.2.3.6 A s s i s t a n c e f o r S p e c i a l G r o u p s 36 i i i C h a p t e r P a g e 2 2.2.4 D i r e c t F e d e r a l I n v o l v e m e n t i n H o u s i n g - A S u m m a r y 37 2.3 F e d e r a l H o u s i n g A c t i v i t y - I n d i r e c t I n v o l v e m e n t 38 2.3-1 I m p u t e d N e t I n c o m e 39 2.3.2 C a p i t a l G a i n s 4 1 2.3.3 R e g i s t e r e d H o m e - O w n e r s h i p S a v i n g s P l a n ( R H O S P ) 4 1 2.4 P r o v i n c i a l I n v o l v e m e n t i n H o u s i n g - T h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a S c e n e 43 2.4.1 B . C . H o m e - O w n e r ' s G r a n t . . 43 2.4.2 P r o v i n c i a l H o m e A c q u i s i t i o n A c t 43 2.4.3 P r o v i n c i a l R e n t C o n t r o l 44 2.5 M u n i c i p a l I n v o l v e m e n t i n H o u s i n g 47 2.6 C o n c l u s i o n s 48 A P P E N D I X 50 3 T H E C A N A D I A N H O U S I N G S T O C K 53 3.1 T h e C o m m o d i t y , H o u s i n g 53 3.2 T h e S t o c k o f H o u s i n g i n C a n a d a 54 3.2.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e H o u s i n g S t o c k 56 3.2.1.1 S t r u c t u r a l T y p e 56 3.2.1.2 S i z e o f D w e l l i n g U n i t s 56 3.2.1.3 T e n u r e 56 3.2.1.4 L o c a t i o n 6l 3.2.1.5 O c c u p a n t s 6l 3.3 A d d i t i o n s t o t h e H o u s i n g S t o c k 66 3.4 S u m m a r y 68 3.5 T h e S u p p l y o f H o u s i n g i n 2001 71 i v C h a p t e r P a g e 4 A N A N A L Y S I S O F T H E C A N A D I A N P O P U L A T I O N T O 1971 73 4.1 P o p u l a t i o n • 74 4.1.1 A g e o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n 76 4.1.2 L o c a t i o n o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n 77 4.2 F a m i l y S t o c k 83 4.3 H o u s e h o l d S t o c k 89 4.3.1 H o u s e h o l d s b y A g e 89 4.3-2 F a m i l y U n d o u b l i n g 91 4.3.3 H o u s e h o l d S i z e 96 4.3.4 L o c a t i o n o f H o u s e h o l d s 96 4.4 S u m m a r y 103 5 P O P U L A T I O N , F A M I L Y A N D H O U S E H O L D P R O J E C T I O N S 109 5.1 P r e v i o u s S t u d i e s 109 5.1.1 P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s I l l 5.1.1.1 N a t u r a l I n c r e a s e I l l 5.1.1.2 N e t I m m i g r a t i o n 120 5.1.1.3 M o r t a l i t y 123 5.2.1 F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d P r o j e c t i o n s 125 5.2.1.1 M a r r i a g e s 128 5.2.1.2 D i v o r c e s 130 5.2.1.3 D e a t h s o f M a r r i e d P e r s o n s 130 5.2.1.4 N e t I m m i g r a t i o n o f F a m i l i e s 132 5.2.1.5 H e a d s h i p 132 v C h a p t e r P a g e 5 5.2.2 A S u m m a r y o f F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d P r o j e c t i o n s 138 5.2.2.1 P r o j e c t e d F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d T r e n d s 1 4 4 5.2 I m p l i c a t i o n s o f F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d P r o j e c t i o n s f o r t h e H o u s i n g S t o c k 153 5.3 C h a n g i n g t h e A s s u m p t i o n s 157 5.4 C o n c l u s i o n s 160 6 C O N C L U S I O N S 163 6.1 T h e P r o b l e m 163 6.2 T h e I m p l i c a t i o n s 165 6.3 P o l i c y R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s 167 6.4 F u t u r e S t u d i e s 170 B I B L I O G R A P H Y 172 v i LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e Page 1.1 The E f f e c t s o f a Change o f Demand on a Housing Market Without Submarkets. 3 1.2 The E f f e c t s o f a S h i f t i n Demand Between Tenure Submarkets on the Housing Market 6 1.3 The E f f e c t s of an I n c r e a s e i n Demand . ^  ...... • 8 1.4 The E f f e c t of Government A s s i s t a n c e on Consumer Income and Consumption of Housing 10 3.1 D w e l l i n g C o m p l e t i o n s by Type ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , . 1956-1975.. 70 4.1 P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of the P o p u l a t i o n by F i v e - Y e a r Age Groups and Sex, 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 75 4.2 P o p u l a t i o n by Age Group ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1951-1971 78 4.3 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the Urban P o p u l a t i o n , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 81 4.4 Households by Type and Age Group ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1961-1971 94 4.5 Households by Type and Age Group ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1961-1971 95 4.6 Average S i z e of Household by Age o f Household Head, 1961, 1966, 1971 101 5.1 P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s 114 5.2 F a m i l y P r o j e c t i o n s l 4 l 5.3 Household P r o j e c t i o n s 141 5.4 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d R a t i o s f o r S p e c i f i e d Years 143 5.5 P r o j e c t e d R a t i o s , S t a t i s t i c s Canada 148 v i i L I S T O F T A B L E S T a b l e P a g e 2.1 N H A - I n s u r e d M o r t g a g e L o a n s b y A p p r o v e d L e n d e r s - C h a n g e s i n S e l e c t e d T e r m s , 1954-1975 23 2.2 T y p e s o f N e w D w e l l i n g s F i n a n c e d U n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , 1961-1975 ( P e r C e n t ) 24 2.3 D w e l l i n g C o m p l e t i o n s b y T y p e , 1949-1975 ( P e r C e n t a n d T o t a l ) 26 2.4 P u b l i c F u n d s A u t h o r i z e d U n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , 1966-1975 ( M i l l i o n s o f D o l l a r s a n d P e r c e n t a g e s ) 29 2.5 A v e r a g e N H A I n t e r e s t R a t e o n A p p r o v e d L e n d e r s ' H o m e - O w n e r s h i p L o a n s , 1972-1975, '"• M o n t h l y 32 2.6 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f L o a n s A p p r o v e d •. f o r N e w H o u s i n g f o r H o m e - O w n e r s h i p U n d e r N H A , 1973-1975 33 2.7 T a x S u b s i d y t o H o m e - O w n e r s h i p a s P e r C e n t R e d u c t i o n i n I m p u t e d G r o s s R e n t a l I n c o m e 41 2.8 B . C . P r o v i n c i a l H o m e A c q u i s i t i o n P r o g r a m m e , 1967-1975 45 3.1 H o u s i n g S t o c k , O c c u p i e d a n d V a c a n t D w e l l i n g s , 1951, 1961, 1966, 1971 55 3.2 H o u s i n g S t o c k b y T y p e o f D w e l l i n g U n i t , 1951, 1961, 1966, 1971 57 3.3 © w e l l i n g S i z . e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , 1951, 1961, 1971 58 3.4 O w n e r - O c c u p i e d D w e l l i n g U n i t s , 1951-1971 60 3.5 L o c a t i o n a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e H o u s i n g S t o c k , 1961, 1971 62 3.6 P e r c e n t a g e o f D w e l l i n g s b y S t r u c t u r a l T y p e a n d b y L o c a t i o n , 1961, 1971 63 3.7 A v e r a g e N u m b e r o f R o o m s a n d B e d r o o m s p e r D w e l l i n g U n i t , b y L o c a t i o n , 1961, 1971 64 v i i i T a b l e P a g e 3.8 H o u s i n g S t o c k b y A g e o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d , 1961. 1966, 1971 67 3.9 D w e l l i n g C o m p l e t i o n s b y T y p e , C a n a d a , 1956-1975 69 4.1 T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n , C a n a d a , 1951-1971 76 4.2 P o p u l a t i o n b y A g e G r o u p s , 1951-1971 77 4.3 P o p u l a t i o n b y L o c a t i o n , 1951-1971 79 4.4 T h e U r b a n P o p u l a t i o n , P e r c e n t a g e o f T o t a l U r b a n P o p u l a t i o n , 1951-1971 79 4.5 P o p u l a t i o n b y A g e G r o u p a n d L o c a t i o n , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 82 4.6 F a m i l i e s b y A g e o f F a m i l y H e a d , 1951, 1961, 1966, 1971 ( P e r C e n t ) 85 4.7 M a r r i a g e s a n d D i v o r c e s - R a t e s a n d A v e r a g e A g e s , 1951-1974 86 4.8 M a r r i a g e R a t e s b y A g e a n d S e x , 1966-1974 87 4.9 D i v o r c e s b y A g e o f H u s b a n d a n d W i f e a t T i m e o f D i v o r c e , 1970-1974 ( P e r C e n t ) 88 4.10 H o u s e h o l d S t o c k , 11956, 196l, 1966, 1971 90 4.11 H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d A g e o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d , 1961, 1 9 6 6 , 1971 92 4.12 H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d A g e - o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d , 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 93 4.13 F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s : F a m i l i e s ( P e r C e n t ) 97 4 . 1 4 H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d C o m p o s i t i o n , 1951-1971 98 4.15 A v e r a g e S i z e o f H o u s e h o l d s a n d F a m i l i e s , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 99 4.16 A v e r a g e S i z e o f H o u s e h o l d s b y A g e o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d , 1961, 1966, 1971 100 4.17 H o u s e h o l d s b y U r b a n o r R u r a l L o c a t i o n , 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 102 i x T a b l e P a g e 4.18 F a m i l y a n d N o n - F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s b y R u r a l a n d U r b a n L o c a t i o n , 1961, 1966, 1971 1 0 4 4.19 A v e r a g e N u m b e r o f P e r s o n s p e r H o u s e h o l d b y L o c a t i o n , 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971. . . 105 5.1 A c t u a l a n d P r o j e c t e d P o p u l a t i o n , 1951-2001 112 5.2 P r o j e c t e d P o p u l a t i o n b y A g e G r o u p , . 1976-2001 113 5.3 F e r t i l i t y R a t e P r o j e c t i o n s U n d e r V a r i o u s A s s u m p t i o n s 116 A . I l l i n g 116 B . S y s t e m s R e s e a r c h G r o u p 117 C . S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a 118 5.4 A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y R a t e s , 1921-1974 119 5-5 C o m p o n e n t s o f P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h , 1861-1971 ( '000) 121 5.6 I m m i g r a t i o n t o C a n a d a , 1966-1974, A g e a n d S e x S p e c i f i c 122 5.7 N e t I m m i g r a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s 1 2 4 5.8 D e a t h R a t e s a n d A v e r a g e A g e a t D e a t h , M a l e a n d F e m a l e , 1951-1971 126 5.9 E x p e c t a t i o n o f L i f e , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 , 127 5.10 A v e r a g e A g e a t M a r r i a g e o f S i n g l e P e r s o n s ( N e v e r P r e v i o u s l y M a r r i e d ) , C a n a d a , 1951-1973 129 5.11 S . R . G . P r o j e c t i o n s f o r A g e - S p e c i f i c M a r r i a g e R a t e s , 1966-2001 131 5.12 I m m i g r a t i o n o f M a r r i e d F e m a l e s , 1966-1974 133 5.13 P r o j e c t e d ( S . R . G . ) N e t M i g r a t i o n o f M a r r i e d F e m a l e s 133 5 . 1 4 P r o p o r t i o n s S i n g l e i n P o p u l a t i o n A g e d 15 Y e a r s a n d O v e r b y S e x , 1951-1986 134 5.15 P r i m a r y a n d N o n - F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s , 1961, 1966, 1971 136 5.16 F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d P r o j e c t i o n s t o 2001 137 x T a b l e P a g e 5 . 1 7 A A c t u a l a n d P r o j e c t e d N u m b e r o f F a m i l i e s 139 5 .17B A c t u a l a n d P r o j e c t e d N u m b e r o f H o u s e h o l d s 139 5.18 A c t u a l a n d P r o j e c t e d H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e f o r S e l e c t e d Y e a r s 1 4 0 5.19- A c t u a l a n d P r o j e c t e d R a t i o s 1 4 2 5.20 P r o j e c t e d F a m i l i e s b y A g e G r o u p s , P e r c e n t a g e 1 4 5 5.21 P r o j e c t e d H o u s e h o l d s b y A g e G r o u p s , P e r c e n t a g e 1 4 6 5.22 A c t u a l a n d P r o j e c t e d H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d A g e G r o u p , P e r c e n t a g e 147 5.23 R a t i o s o f H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e t o F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d S t o c k s 150 5 . 2 4 R a t i o s o f H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e t o F a m i l y a n d H o u s e h o l d S t o c k s : , , b y A g e 151 5.25 P r o j e c t e d I n c r e a s e s i n H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d A g e 152 5.26 H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s b y A r e a , C e n s u s M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a o f V a n c o u v e r , 1971 156 5.27 P e r c e n t a g e o f 1st B i r t h s b y A g e G r o u p o f M o t h e r , 1966-1974 159 x i A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S M y r e s e a r c h a n d w r i t i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s c o n s t i t u t e s o n l y o n e p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l e f f o r t w h i c h w a s i n v o l v e d . W i t h o u t t h e i n v a l u a b l e a d v i c e a n d g u i d a n c e o f D r . M i c h a e l G o l d b e r g a n d t h e p a t i e n c e o f M a r j o r i e M c D o u g a l l w h o l a b o r e d f o r c o u n t l e s s h o u r s a t h e r t y p e w r i t e r t h e p a p e r c o u l d n e v e r h a v e r e a c h e d c o m p l e t i o n . . A n d s o t o t h e s e t w o I o f f e r m y m o s t s i n c e r e t h a n k s . x i i Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION The a t t a i n m e n t of home-ownership r a n k s h i g h among the dreams o f Canadians. I t i s a dream which has been n u r t u r e d by p o l i t i c i a n s and government time and time a g a i n , year a f t e r y e a r . I t i s , however, a dream which f o r every Canadian may be n e i t h e r p r a c t i c a l nor d e s i r a b l e . I n r e c e n t y e a r s , the c o m p o s i t i o n o f the s t o c k o f households has been chang i n g . The p r o p o r t i o n of n o n - f a m i l y households has g r a d u a l l y become l a r g e r . W h i l e the n o n - f a m i l y household c o n t i n u e s t o be the m i n o r i t y component o f the house-h o l d s t o c k , i t s presence i s n e v e r t h e l e s s o f growing importance i n the demand f o r h o u s i n g . Demographic changes s i n c e 1970 suggest t h a t n o n - f a m i l y household f o r m a t i o n i s e s c a l a t i n g . The q u e s t i o n then a r i s e s — " I f t h e s e demographic changes a r e the b e g i n n i n g s o f l o n g term t r e n d s , what w i l l be the r e p e r c u s -s i o n s f o r the s t o c k o f households and I t s demand f o r h o u s i n g ? " The h y p o t h e s i s o f t h i s p a p e r , then,'" f o l l o w s from t h a t q u e s t i o n — " T h e s t o c k of h o u s i n g , as i t I s c u r r e n t l y e v o l v i n g under the i n f l u e n c e of Canadian h o u s i n g p o l i c y , w i l l by the end o f the c e n t u r y , be i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r use by the household s t o c k which then e x i s t s " . The t e s t i n g of the h y p o t h e s i s r e q u i r e s f i r s t l y , an a n a l y s i s o f government h o u s i n g p o l i c y t o r e v e a l the e x t e n t t o which the government has f a v o u r e d the ownership market and i n d i r e c t l y s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g , and, s e c o n d l y , t o demonstrate t h a t p o p u l a t i o n has been, and i s p r o -1 2 j e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e to be comprised o f a growing p r o p o r t i o n of n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . 1.1 The Economics of Housing Markets Chapter 2 o f t h i s paper w i l l examine the i n f l u e n c e s e x e r t e d by the f e d e r a l , p r o v i n c i a l and m u n i c i p a l l e v e l s o f government upon h o u s i n g markets. Chapter 3 w i l l t h e n d i s c u s s the h o u s i n g s t o c k which has e v o l v e d under t h e s e i n f l u e n c e s . The p r o c e s s by which government p o l i c i e s c h a r a c t e r i z e the f l o w or the a d d i t i o n s t o the s t o c k o f h o u s i n g i s r e v i e w e d below as an economic model o f h o u s i n g markets. By a p p l y i n g the t h e o r e t i c a l t o o l s o f t h i s model t o the p r e s e n t government h o u s i n g p o l i c y , v a l u a b l e i n s i g h t ' I n t o the f u t u r e s t o c k o f h o u s i n g can be g a i n e d (assuming the continuation:..of c u r r e n t p o l i c i e s ) . S i n c e h o u s i n g i s a d u r a b l e w i t h a l i f e t i m e o f many y e a r s , the e x i s t i n g s t o c k o f h o u s i n g a t any p o i n t o f time i s l a r g e . A d d i t i o n s t o the h o u s i n g s t o c k a r e r e l a t i v e l y - s m a l l and do not g e n e r a l l y account f o r more th a n t h r e e or f o u r per cent o f the t o t a l s t o c k o f h o u s i n g each y e a r . W i t h d r a w a l s from the s t o c k due t o d e t e r i o r a t i o n or d e s t r u c t i o n a r e not s i g n i f i c a n t i n Canada. The p r o d u c t i o n o f h o u s i n g i s a r a t h e r l e n g t h y p r o c e s s so t h a t i n the s h o r t r u n the s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g can be c o n s i d e r e d as f i x e d . The v e r t i c a l l i n e i n F i g u r e 1.1 r e p r e s e n t s the s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g i n the s h o r t r u n . The demand f o r h o u s i n g , however, v a r i e s w i t h the p r i c e of h o u s i n g . Thus, the demand curve i s downward s l o p i n g t o the r i g h t (DD). A change i n the l e v e l of demand f o r h o u s i n g 3 caused by some exogenous f a c t o r r e s u l t s i n a s h i f t of the demand c u r v e , f o r example, t o DJD'. The p r i c e o f . the -commod- -' i t y r i s e s as a consequence o f the i n c r e a s e d demand t o a new l e v e l , p'. F i g u r e 1.1 The E f f e c t s o f a Change of Demand on a Housing Mar-k e t Without Submarkets. I n the l o n g r u n , the s u p p l y of h o u s i n g can respond t o a change i n demand. A h i g h e r p r i c e ( m a r g i n a l revenue) r e s u l t -i n g from i n c r e a s e d demand encourages c o n s t r u c t i o n and t h e num-ber o f u n i t s produced w i l l i n c r e a s e (from q t o q' i n F i g u r e 1 . 1 ) . S i n c e a d d i t i o n s t o the s t o c k o f h o u s i n g a re s m a l l r e l a -4 t i v e t o t h e t o t a l s t o c k the f i x e d s u p p l y curve i n the s h o r t r u n w i l l s h i f t o n l y s l i g h t l y from SS t o - s ' s ' and the p r i c e - o f h o u s i n g w i l l be o n l y m a r g i n a l l y a f f e c t e d ( p " ) . I n c r e a s e d c o n s t r u c t i o n caused by an i n c r e a s e d ^ demand'-f o r h o u s i n g w i l l i n t u r n i n c r e a s e the b i d d i n g f o r and con-s e q u e n t l y t h e p r i c e of t h e f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t i o n , namely, l a n d , l a b o u r and m a t e r i a l . Whereas changes i n m a r g i n a l revenue ( p r i c e ) i n d u c e movement a l o n g t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t ( s u p p l y ) curve to a d i f f e r e n t , l e v e l sof p r o d u c t i o n , a change i n the. p r i c e of'"one of the f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n w i l l cause a s h i f t i n t h e mar-g i n a l c o s t c u r v e . I n F i g u r e 1.1 t h e p r i c e o f l a n d has r i s e n and the m a r g i n a l c o s t curve has s h i f t e d from MC t o MC'. At t h e same l e v e l of m a r g i n a l revenue, the l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n t h e n drops t o q". The d i s c u s s i o n of the h o u s i n g market thus f a r has been based on a s i m p l i f i e d model of a h o u s i n g market c o n t a i n i n g no submarkets. However, i n r e a l i t y , t h e o p e r a t i o n s o f the hous-i n g market a r e c o m p l i c a t e d by a v a r i e t y o f submarkets and a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d model which i n c o r p o r a t e s submarkets must be d e v e l o p e d . 1.2 Housing Submarkets One of t h e i n h e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of r e a l p r o p e r t y i s i m m o b i l i t y . As a r e s u t , h o u s i n g markets te n d t o be l o c a l i n n a t u r e . W i t h i n l o c a l m a r k e t s , th e commodity, h o u s i n g , i s d i f f e r e n t i a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o t e n u r e , s t r u c t u r a l t y p e and s i z e . The t o t a l s t o c k of h o u s i n g at any time i s t h e r e f o r e the aggre-gat e o f a l l t h e submarkets of h o u s i n g . i . e . , Housing Stock = £ £ E E d w e l l i n g u n i t I ^ j k 1 where i = l o c a t i o n , j = s t r u c t u r a l t y p e k = t e n u r e 1 = s i z e of u n i t The i n t e r a c t i o n of s u p p l y and demand o c c u r s w i t h i n each submarket. A change i n o v e r a l l demand r e s u l t i n g from demo-g r a p h i c changes may a f f e c t one, s e v e r a l o r a l l submarkets, t h u s changing the . demand - i f or the r e l e v a n t - f a c t o r s . of '"production. How e v e r , - d emand tmay a l s o s hi'Ctj rfn-r om. one' submarket'"--t o .another- r e gar d i e s s o f any changenin .pverallede^a'nd.. Demographic : changes such as. changes i n the c o m p o s i t i o n of the household s t o c k , or p r e f e r -e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t of a p a r t i c u l a r submarket may cause demand to s h i f t up i n one submarket w h i l e demand i n t h e a l t e r n a t i v e submarkets (assuming a c o n s t a n t o v e r a l l demand) would conse-q u e n t l y be r e d u c e d . The sequence o f events which would c h a r a c t -e r i z e such a s h i f t between t e n u r e submarkets i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 1.2. I f , f o r example, the government i n t r o d u c e d s u b s i -d i e s f o r home-ownership (as i t has) many households may s h i f t from t h e r e n t a l submarket t o t h e ownership submarket i n o r d e r t o b e n e f i t from t h e s u b s i d y . Thus, the demand f o r ownership u n i t s w i l l i n c r e a s e from Do t o Do' w h i l e demand f o r r e n t a l u n i t s w i l l f a l l from Dr t o Dr'. The r e s u l t would be h i g h e r vacancy r a t e s I n the r e n t a l s e c t o r and a d e c r e a s i n g number of v a c a n t d w e l l i n g s f o r s a l e . W h i l e p r i c e s would r i s e i n the ownership s e c t o r , p r i c e s i n the r e n t a l s e c t o r would t e n d t o f a l l , but a t . a . l e s s r e s p o n s i v e r a t e as r e n t s g e n e r a l l y t e n d t o be s t i c k y 1 . Recent l a n d l o r d - t e n a n t l e g i s l a t i o n 2 has not c o n t r i b u t e d t o p r i c e f l e x i b i l i t y w i t h i n the r e n t a l s e c t o r . 6 F i g u r e 1.2 T h e E f f e c t s o f a S h i f t i n D e m a n d B e t w e e n T e n u r e S u b m a r k e t s o n t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t ( a ) j . ( b ) • M C o P R O F I T P R O F I T • LAND LAND u n i t s ( ' 0 , 0 0 0 ) q o q o ' u n i t s C O O ) ( c ) ( d ) I n r e s p o n s e t o h i g h e r p r i c e s i n t h e o w n e r s h i p s e c t o r , t h e p r o -d u c t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s f o r s a l e w o u l d i n c r e a s e f r o m q o t o q o ' ( F i g u r e 1.2b). - \ E n t h e r e n t a l s e c t o r t h e v o l u m e o f n e w c o n s t r u c -t i o n w o u l d ' f a l l ( F i g u r e 1.2d) a s t h e d e c r e a s e i n p r i c e w o u l d e r o d e b u i l d e r s ' p r o f i t s . 7 S i n c e many f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n a re shared by t h e v a r i o u s submarkets of h o u s i n g , an i n c r e a s e i n the p r i c e o f one of the f a c t o r s caused by i n c r e a s e d c o n s t r u c t i o n i n one submarket w i l l cause t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t c u r v e s o f the submar-k e t s u s i n g t h a t f a c t o r t o s h i f t i n w a r d . F o r example, i f the c o n s t r u c t i o n .of i.ownership u n i t s i n c r e a s e s as" i n F i g u r e 1.3(c) and.-cause s a l a n d p r i c e s t o b e v b i d upwards ( F i g u r e 1.3' ' • (b) ) ,-„any ; p a r t r i c i p a n t s o f t h e h r e n t a l ^ . s e c t o r who ..mightjuse the .samer,land.iwould;.face i n c r e a s e d c o m p e t i t l o n ^ a n d 'consequently', •higher.^priees^fpretha't l a n d . :.As--rental l e v e l s are - det e r m i n e d by t h e supply/demand r e l a t i o n s h i p of F i g u r e 1.3d, t h e m a r g i n a l revenue f o r r e n t a l u n i t s does not change and h i g h e r payments f o r l a n d ( F i g u r e 1.3e) would r e s u l t i n a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e o n l y non-market d e t e r m i n e d c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n - - p r o f i t . Thus, i n c r e a s e d c o n s t r u c t i o n i n one submarket, by i n c r e a s i n g t h e p r i c e o f shared f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n , u l t i m a t e l y d i s c o u r a g e s p r o d u c t i o n i n a l t e r n a t i v e submarkets. 1. 3 Housing Demand Changes i n t h e l e v e l o f demand can be t r i g g e r e d by changes i n a number o f v a r i a b l e s . T h i s paper i s , however, concerned w i t h two major i n f l u e n c e s o n l y : government h o u s i n g p o l i c y and demographic v a r i a b l e s . The demand f o r h o u s i n g I s d e t e r m i n e d by h o u s e h o l d s . S i n c e t h e r e i s , by d e f i n i t i o n , a one-to-one r a t i o between households and h o u s i n g u n i t s any change i n the number o f households i m p l i e s a change i n the l e v e l o f consumption of h o u s i n g . Thus, an i n c r e a s e i n the a b s o l u t e number of house-8 F i g u r e 1.3 The E f f e c t s o f an I n c r e a s e i n Demand Ownership S e c t o r (a) (b) (c) PROFIT PROFIT LAND LAND ' ?o' _ ^ L _ So R e n t a l S e c t o r * (d) u n i t s ( '0,000) (e) •Dr xi PROFIT LAND LAND Sr u n i t s ('0,000) Pr: q ' u n i t s C00) M C ; u n i t s C00) 9 h o l d s due t o I n c r e a s e d d i v o r c e r a t e s or d e c r e a s e d m a r r i a g e s , or g e n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s would cause a n . i n c r e a s e i n the t o t a l demand f o r h o u s i n g . Such demographic changes would t h e r e f o r e cause the demand cu r v e f o r one or more h o u s i n g sub-markets t o s h i f t outward. D i f f e r e n t t y p e s of households ( f a m i l y , s i n g l e person;.; e t c . ) a r e g e n e r a l l y u n d e r s t o o d t o have d i f f e r e n t h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s i n terms of s i z e , s t r u c t u r e and l o c a t i o n . Thus, a change i n t h e c o m p o s i t i o n of the household s t o c k would n o r m a l l y be accompanied by a s h i f t i n demand be-tween h o u s i n g submarkets such as t h a t i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 1 . 3 . However, the demand f o r h o u s i n g i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d not o n l y by need but a l s o by p r e f e r e n c e or d e s i r e . The l i n e which s e p a r a t e s need from p r e f e r e n c e i s a f u n c t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l t a s t e s and v a l u e s and a d e f i n i t i o n o f the terms i s t h e r f o r e d i f f i c u l t . S i n c e i t i s t h e e x t e n t t o which the need, p r e f e r -ence or d e s i r e r e c e i v e s economic support which t r a n s l a t e s the m o t i v a t i o n f o r demand i n t o e f f e c t i v e demand, such d e f i n i t i o n s can be n e a t l y bypassed. I f the p r i c e s t r u c t u r e of the h o u s i n g market i s . a l t e r e d , the household's a b i l i t y t o f i n a n c i a l l y support i t s ' need or p r e f e r e n c e f o r h o u s i n g may a l s o change. F o r example, i f f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e i s d f f e r e d by "a government programme on the purchase of a p a r t i c u l a r t y p e of h o u s i n g , t h e consumer by d i r e c t i n g h i s consumption t o t h a t h o u s i n g submarket, becomes e l i g i b l e f o r a s s i s t a n c e . I f the change t o t h e new h o u s i n g submarket d i d not i n v o l v e a change i n p r i c e o r q u a n t i t y o f s h e l t e r the a s s i s t a n c e would r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n the con-10 sumer's income. I n F i g u r e 1.4, the consumer's o r i g i n a l budget l i n e B-^  would s h i f t outward t o . The consumer's i n c r e a s e d income w i l l p e r m i t him to consume more h o u s i n g w h i l e ' d e v o t i n g t h e same amount t o a l l o t h e r goods ( P o i n t B ) , or he may con-sume more of both h o u s i n g and a l l o t h e r goods, ( P o i n t C)... The' case i s . c o m p l i c a t e d somewhat when p r i c e s i n t h e - - s u b s t i t u t e .submarkets ( r e n t a l and ownership f o r example) a r e not e q u i v a l -F i g u r e 1.4 The E f f e c t o f Government A s s i s t a n c e on Consumer Income and Consumption of Housing Q u a n t i t y o f a l l o t h e r goods e n t . I±A/g !/PQ C G B a a c b i:/P„ I+A/P a H CH DH • H •" H Q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g 1 1 T h e I m p o r t a n t f a c t i s t h a t t h e g o v e r n m e n t a s s i t a n c e a l t e r s t h e c o n s u m e r ' s e c o n o m i c s u p p o r t ( i n c o m e ) i f h e p a r t i c i -p a t e s i n t h e a s s i s t e d s u b m a r k e t . W h e t h e r t h e a s s i s t a n c e f a c i l i t a t e s e x p r e s s i o n o f t a s t e s a n d p r e f e r e n c e o r w h e t h e r i t a c t u a l l y a l t e r s t h e t a s t e s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s i s i m m a t e r i a l . T h e f a c t i s t h e c o n s u m e r i s e n c o u r a g e d t o c o n s u m e i n a p a r t i c u l a r s u b m a r k e t . I n s u m m a r y , p r e f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t i n a p a r t i c u l a r s u b -m a r k e t i n c r e a s e s c o n s u m e r d e m a n d b y e n c o u r a g i n g c o n s u m e r s t o s h i f t o u t o f a n o t h e r s u b m a r k e t i n t o t h e a s s i s t e d s u b m a r k e t . T h e s h i f t i n d e m a n d e n c o u r a g e s a s h i f t i n p r o d u c t i o n f a c t o r s a n d b o t h s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d b e c o m e r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h e a s s i s t e d s u b m a r k e t . 1 . 4 S u m m a r y T h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s p r o v i d e t h e n e c e s s a r y b a c k -g r o u n d m a t e r i a l , t o e x p l o r e t h e c e n t r a l h y p o t h e s i s o f t h i s t h e s i s : " T h e s t o c k o f h o u s i n g , a s i t i s c u r r e n t l y e v o l v i n g u n d e r t h e i n f l u e n c e o f C a n a d i a n h o u s i n g p o l i c y , w i l l b y t h e e n d o f t h e c e n t u r y , b e i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r u s e b y t h e h o u s e h o l d s t o c k w h i c h t h e n e x i s t s " . T h e s e c h a p t e r s e x a m i n e t h e n a t u r e o f c u r r e n t h o u s i n g p o l i c y , t h e s u p p l y o f ( s t o c k ) a n d d e m a n d f o r h o u s i n g , a s w e l l a s d e m o g r a p h i c f a c t o r s w h i c h m a y a f f e c t f u t u r e d e m a n d . T h e o b j e c t i v e o f t h e s e c h a p t e r s i s t h e n t o d e t e r m i n e t h e n a t u r e o f t h e f u t u r e s u p p l y o f a n d d e m a n d f o r h o u s i n g . I f t h e a n t i c i p a t e d s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g v a r i e s c o n ^ s i d e r a b l y f r o m t h e p r o j e c t e d d e m a n d f o r h o u s i n g t h e t e s t o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s w i l l t h e n b e c o m p l e t e . C h a p t e r 2 e x a m i n e s b o t h d i r e c t a n d i n d i r e c t g o v e r n m e n t i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g a t a l l l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t a n d b y d o i n g s o r e v e a l s t h e b i a s e s a n d b a r r i e r s w h i c h e x i s t f o r d i f f e r e n t s u b m a r k e t s o f h o u s i n g . C h a p t e r 3 l o o k s a t t h e c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s t o c k a c c o r d i n g t o n u m b e r s , s i z e , t y p e , t e n u r e a n d l o c a t i o n . S i n c e h o u s i n g i s a d u r a b l e c o m m o d i t y , t h e c u r r e n t s t o c k o f h o u s i n g e s t a b l i s h e s t h e f o u n d a t i o n u p o n w h i c h f u t u r e h o u s i n g s u p p l i e s a r e b u i l t . C h a p t e r 4 p r e s e n t s a n a n a l y s i s o f C a n a d i a n p o p u l a t i o n f r o m a n h i s t o r i c p e r s p e c t i v e . T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , f a m i l y a n d h o u s e h o l d s t o c k s a r e e x a m i n e d a c c o r d i n g t o s i z e , a g e a n d l o c a -t i o n . S i n c e h o u s i n g n u m b e r s a r e l i n k e d t o h o u s e h o l d n u m b e r s , t h e m a j o r c o n c e r n i s w i t h h o u s e h o l d s a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h t h e s p l i t b e t w e e n f a m i l y a n d n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . F a c t o r s a f f e c t -i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s , s u c h a s i m m i g r a t i o n , m a r r i a g e s , d i v o r c e s , b i r t h s a n d d e a t h s a r e a l s o d i s c u s s e d . I n C h a p t e r 5, p r o j e c t i o n s o f p o p u l a t i o n a n d f a m i l y a n d h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n a r e d i s c u s s e d . S i n c e t h e m o s t r e c e n t p r o -j e c t i o n s a r e b a s e d o n 1971 d a t a , d e m o g r a p h i c d e v e l o p m e n t s o c c u r r i n g a f t e r 1971 a r e p r e s e n t e d . T h e s e r e c e n t t r e n d s d e m o n -s t r a t e a n e c e s s i t y t o r e v i s e e v e n t h e m o s t r e c e n t p r o j e c t i o n s . I t i s t h e s e m o s t r e c e n t d e m o g r a p h i c c h a n g e s w h i c h p r o v i d e t h e m o s t c o n c r e t e e v i d e n c e t h a t h o u s i n g s t o c k a s i t i s c u r r e n t l y b e i n g s h a p e d w i l l b e i n a d e q u a t e f o r t h e f u t u r e h o u s e h o l d s t o c k . C h a p t e r 6 r e v i e w s t h e p r o b l e m a n d s u m m a r i z e s t h e f i n d -i n g s o f t h i s p a p e r . T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e p r e d i c t e d p r o b l e m a r e d i s c u s s e d . P o l i c y r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e b a s e d o n t h e s e !3 f i n d i n g s and i m p l i c a t i o n s and a r e a s f o r f u r t h e r study a r e t h e n suggested. 14 FOOTNOTES 1 D a v i d D a l e - J o h n s o n , Housing P o l i c y , Tenure Choice  and t h e Demand f o r Housing i n G r e a t e r Vancouver. Vancouver, M.Sc. T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o lumbia, J a n u a r y 1975, p. 50. 2 I n B r i t i s h C o lumbia, r e n t c o n t r o l s have been enacted;iunder the L a n d l o r d and Tenant A c t , S.B.C. 1974 , c .109 . C h a p t e r 2 C A N A D I A N H O U S I N G P O L I C Y C a n a d i a n h o u s i n g p o l i c y h a s , t h r o u g h o u t i t s h i s t o r y , p r o v i d e d e n c o u r a g e m e n t f o r h o m e - o w n e r s h i p a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r , o w n e r s h i p o f s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g . T h e b i a s t o w a r d s t h i s t y p e o f h o u s i n g h a s b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d a t t h e f e d e r a l , p r o v i n -c i a l a n d m u n i c i p a l l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t t h r o u g h v a r i o u s h o u s -i n g p r o g r a m m e s , r e n t c o n t r o l s c h e m e s , i n c o m e t a x a n d l e n d i n g r e g u l a t i o n s , a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a p p r o v a l p r o c e s s e s . S u c h b i a s e s f o r o n e f o r m o f h o u s i n g a n d d i s i n c e n t i v e s f o r o t h e r h o u s i n g t y p e s h a v e a l a r g e i n f l u e n c e u p o n t h e f l o w o f h o u s i n g u n i t s ( s e e C h a p t e r 1 , S e c t i o n 1 . 1 ) . T h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h g o v e r n m e n t i n t e r v e n e s i n h o u s i n g m a r k e t s i s , t h e r f o r e , a m a j o r d e t e r m i n a n t o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s e t i c s o f t h e d e m a n d f o r a n d t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g . I n t h i s c h a p t e r , g o v e r n m e n t i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g , b o t h d i r e c t a n d i n d i r e c t a n d a t a l l l e v e l s o f g o v e r n m e n t w i l l b e a n a l y z e d . T h e e x t e n t a n d e m p h a s i s o f t h a t i n f l u e n c e w i l l b e a s s u m e d t o b e o n e o f t h e m a j o r f o r c e s w h i c h w i l l s h a p e t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k i n f u t u r e y e a r s . A l t h o u g h t h e l i s t o f f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g h o u s -i n g d e m a n d a n d s u p p l y i s l o n g , t h i s p a p e r i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h o n l y t w o m a j o r d e t e r m i n a n t s : g o v e r n m e n t h o u s i n g p o l i c y a n d d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s . T h e f i r s t i s t h e t o p i c o f t h i s c h a p t e r w h i l e t h e s e c o n d i s t h e s u b j e c t o f s u b s e q u e n t c h a p t e r s . T h e o f f i c i a l s t a t e m e n t o f g o v e r n m e n t h o u s i n g p o l i c y i s t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t w h i c h c o n f e r s u p o n t h e C e n t r a l 16 Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n the l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i t y and r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o "promote the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new houses, the r e p a i r and m o d e r n i z a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g houses, and the improve-ment of h o u s i n g and l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s " . 1 The Act r e p r e s e n t s o n l y t h a t p o r t i o n o f government i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g which i s b o t h f e d e r a l and d i r e c t and does not attempt t o d e f i n e the u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e s o f the programmes f o r which i t l a y s the groundwork. Thus, a c l e a r comprehensive statement of the g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s f o r h o u s i n g i n Canada does not r e a l l y e x i s t . A c h i e v e -ment of a t r u e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f Canadian h o u s i n g p o l i c y e n t a i l s a t h o r o u g h e x a m i n a t i o n o f a l l the l e g i s l a t i o n and programmes a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h o u s i n g . Records o f programme budgets and spending r e v e a l the magnitude o f the government's a c t u a l com-mitment i n the v a r i o u s submarkets o f h o u s i n g . I n a d d i t i o n , an a n a l y s i s o f the economic i m p l i c a t i o n o f l e g i s l a t i o n which a f f e c t s h o u s i n g but which does not c a r r y an a c t u a l government f i n a n c i a l commitment d e t e r m i n e s t o what e x t e n t the government i n d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e s h o u s i n g markets. U n f o r t u n a t e l y h o u s i n g p o l i c y does not s t a n d i n i s o l a -t i o n . R a t h e r i t i s n e s t e d w i t h i n the l a r g e r framework o f f e d e r a l f i s c a l p o l i c y and o f t e n i s used as a means f o r a c h i e v -i n g economic s t a b i l i t y r a t h e r t h a n as an end i n i t s e l f . Note t h a t t h e preamble t o t h e NHA w h i c h was quoted e a r l i e r appears to be as concerned about the p r o m o t i o n o f the c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y as i t i s about h o u s i n g . The importance o f h o u s i n g to the e n t i r e economy has been a p t l y d e s c r i b e d by a l e a d i n g p o l i t i c i a n : 17 H o u s i n g i s t h e c o r n e r s t o n e o f a s t a b l e s o c i e t y . . . T h e h o u s i n g i n d u s t r y i s v i t a l t o t h e e c o n o m y o f t h e n a t i o n : i n s t a b i l i t y i n t h e h o u s i n g s e c t i o n o f o u r e c o n o m y h a s h o r i z o n t a l a n d v e r t i c a l r e p e r c u s s i o n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e e n t i r e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s y s t e m . T e n u o u s a n d d i r e c t r e s u l t s a r e f e l t o n s o m e s e c t o r s o f t h e e c o n o m y a n d u n t e n u o u s , i n d i r e c t r e s u l t s o n s t i l l o t h e r s . T h e s e r e p e r c u s s i o n s c r e a t e u n e m p l o y m e n t , s o c i a l t e n s i o n , f i n a n c i a l s t r a i n , i n f l a t i o n a r y t r e n d s . T h e e f f e c t s a r e l i k e a n u c l e a r e x p l o s i o n , s o m e o f t h e m v i s i b l e a n d v i o l e n t , b u t t h e f a l l o u t i s e x t e n s i v e a n d w i d e r a n g i n g . 2 A n i n d u s t r y t h a t c a n s o d r a m a t i c a l l y a f f e c t t h e e c o n o m y o f t h e n a t i o n s e r v e s a s - a n a t t r a c t i v e a n d u s e f u l t o o l o f t h e g o v e r n m e n t . T h u s , w h e n n e w p r o g r a m m e s a r e i m p l e m e n t e d o r t a x l a w s a r e c h a n g e d o r r e v i s e d , i t i s o f t e n a s m u c h a c h a n g e i n f i s c a l p o l i c y w h i c h h a s d i r e c t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e h o u s i n g i n d u s t r y a s i t I s a m o d i f i c a t i o n t o h o u s i n g p o l i c y i t s e l f w h i c h h a s o c c u r r e d . L i k e w i s e , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h c h a n g e s i n c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s — i n t e r e s t r a t e s , l e n d i n g r e g u l a t i o n s , a n d s o o n — c o n s t i t u t e i n c e n t i v e s ( d i s c o u r a g e -m e n t ) t o h o u s i n g m a r k e t s o r t o c o n s u m e r d e m a n d i n g e n e r a l . I n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e , t h e c h a n g e s w o u l d b e c l a s s i f i e d a s h o u s i n g p o l i c y , i n t h e s e c o n d , m o n e t a r y p o l i c y . T h e r e f o r e , i n t h e a t t e m p t t o e x t r a c t a g o v e r n m e n t p o l i c y f r o m t h e h i s t o r i c a l a n d c u r r e n t r e c o r d s o f g o v e r n m e n t h o u s i n g a c t i v i t y , i t I s i m p o r t a n t t o p a r a l l e l a n y c h a n g e s w i t h w h a t i s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y o c c u r r i n g i n t h e r e s t o f t h e e c o n o m y . F o r e x a m p l e , i n 1974, w h e n t h e e c o n o m y w a s f a l t e r i n g , g o v e r n -m e n t e n a c t e d a r e d u c t i o n o n t h e s a l e s t a x o f c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s a n d a t t h e s a m e t i m e a l l o w e d t h e c a p i t a l c o s t a l l o w -a n c e o n r e n t a l a c c o m m o d a t i o n , t o b e a p p l i e d t o o t h e r i n c o m e . 1 8 T h e o b j e c t i v e s w e r e t w o - f o l d : t o i n c r e a s e i n v e s t m e n t i n t h e r e n t a l m a r k e t w h e r e v a c a n c y r a t e s I n u r b a n a r e a s w e r e e x t r e m e l y l o w a n d s e c o n d l y t o e n c o u r a g e i n c r e a s e d c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d c o n -s e q u e n t l y i m p r o v e t h e s t a t e o f t h e e c o n o m y . S i n c e p o l i t i c s t e n d s t o c l o u d o v e r t h e r e a l r a t i o n a l e f o r s u c h a c t i o n s , t h e t a s k o f d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g h o u s i n g p o l i c y f r o m f i s c a l a n d m o n e t a r y p o l i c y b e c o m e s v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , a n y l e g i s l a t i o n o r p r o g r a m m e s w h i c h h a v e i m p l i -c a t i o n s f o r h o u s i n g w i l l b e t r e a t e d a s h o u s i n g p o l i c y w h i l e t h e r e p e r c u s s i o n s f o r t h e e n t i r e e c o n o m y ' w i l l n o t b e c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s p a p e r . 2 . 1 T h e H i s t o r y o f C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g P o l i c y A l t h o u g h s e c t i o n 9 2 o f t h e B . N . A . A c t c o n f e r s u p o n t h e . p r o v i n c e s t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r r e a l p r o p e r t y , t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t h a s n o t b e e n d e t e r r e d f r o m i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g a n d r e a l p r o p e r t y m a r k e t s . T h e f i r s t N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t w a s p a s s e d i n 1935, b u t i t w a s n o t u n t i l t h e e a r l y 1 9 4 0 ' s t h a t f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t i n v o l v e m e n t b e c a m e s i g n i f i c a n t . R a p i d l y e s c a l a t i n g p r i c e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m w a r t i m e s h o r t a g e s p r o m p t e d t h e g o v e r n m e n t t o e n a c t W a r t i m e M e a s u r e s . 3 T h e r e n t a l l e v e l s o f h o u s i n g w e r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e e m e r g e n c y p r i c e c o n t r o l s w h i c h w e r e e n f o r c e d . I n 1 9 4 1 . , a c r o w n c o r p o r a t i o n , t h e W a r t i m e H o u s i n g L i m i t e d , w a s c r e a t e d t o e n c o u r a g e t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f u r b a n h o u s i n g f o r t h e h u n d r e d s o f w o r k e r s w h o h a d b e e n a b s o r b e d b y t h e w a r t i m e i n d u s t r i e s . D u r i n g t h e y e a r s 1 9 4 1 - 1 9 4 8 , a t o t a l o f 4 5 , 9 3 0 19 d w e l l i n g u n i t s w e r e d e v e l o p e d b y t h i s c o r p o r a t i o n i n c o n j u n c -t i o n w i t h m u n i c i p a l g o v e r n m e n t s " . 1 1 I n 19^5j t h e C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n w a s c r e a t e d t o a d m i n i s t e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t . T h e W a r -t i m e H o u s i n g L i m i t e d a n d t h e r o l e s a n d a c t i v i t i e s o f a l l t h e l e s s e r h o u s i n g a g e n c i e s c r e a t e d d u r i n g t h e w a r y e a r s w e r e g r a d u a l l y a b s o r b e d b y t h e n e w c o r p o r a t i o n . I n 19^9, a n e w N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t i n j e c t e d e c o n o m i c c o n c e r n s i n t o a h e r e t o f o r e s o c i a l i s t i c n a t i o n a l h o u s i n g p o l i c y . T h e A c t w a s d e s c r i b e d a s " A n A c t t o P r o m o t e t h e C o n s t r u c t i o n o f N e w H o u s e s , t h e R e p a i r a n d M o d e r n i z a t i o n o f E x i s t i n g H o u s e s , t h e I m p r o v e m e n t o f H o u s i n g a n d L i v i n g C o n d i t i o n s , a n d t h e E x p a n -s i o n o f E m p l o y m e n t i n t h e P o s t w a r P e r i o d . " 5 T h e s e t h e n , a r e t h e b e g i n n i n g s o f f e d e r a l h o u s i n g p o l i c y . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g t w o d e c a d e s , t h e f e d e r a l r o l e i n h o u s i n g b e c a m e m u c h m o r e c l e a r l y d e f i n e d a n d c o n s i d e r a b l y s t r e n g t h e n e d . T h e p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t s , a l t h o u g h g i v e n t h e l e g i s l a t i v e a u t h o r i t y , w e r e n e i t h e r f i n a n c i a l l y c a p a b l e o f a l i h i g h d e g r e e o f i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g , n o r c ' w e r e t h e y p r e p a r e d i n a p o l i t i c a l o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s e n s e . E v e n a f t e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t w a s a m e n d e d I n 19^9 t o a l l o w f o r f e d e r a l - p r o v i n c i a l p a r t n e r s h i p s i n h o u s i n g m a t t e r s , p r o v i n -c i a l i n v o l v e m e n t r e m a i n e d l o w . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e f e d e r a l c o m m i t m e n t t o t h e f i e l d o f h o u s i n g b e c a m e c o n s i d e r a b l y m a g n i -f i e d . T h e r e w a s m u c h c o n c e r n f o r p u b l i c h o u s i n g b u t g o v e r n m e n t o f f i c i a l s b e c a m e p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e p r o j e c t s 20 a n d s o p r e v e n t e d l a r g e - s c a l e p r o d u c t i o n . T h e m a j o r c o n c e r n s o f t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t d u r i n g t h e p o s t w a r y e a r s a r e b e s t d e s c r i b e d b y A l b e r t R o s e : T h e b e s t c o n c l u s i o n c o n c e r n i n g n a t i o n a l h o u s i n g p o l i c y f r o m 1945 t h r o u g h 1964 i s t h a t t h e g o v e r n m e n t o f C a n a d a w a s s t r o n g l y i n f a v o u r o f t h e a t t a i n m e n t o f h o m e o w n e r s h i p b y e v e r y f a m i l y . T h i s g o a l w a s e n u n c i a t e d f r o m t i m e t o t i m e i n p a r l i a m e n t a n d i n t h e s p e e c h e s o f f e d e r a l m i n i s t e r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n o f C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . M o r e o v e r , t h e g o v e r n m e n t a n d t h e o f f i c i a l s o f t h e c o r p o r a t i o n d e v o t e d m u c h o f t h e i r f o r m a l s p e e c h m a k i n g a n d l a u d a t o r y p r o n o u n c e m e n t s t o t h e e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f t h e h o u s e b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y i n i t s e f f o r t s t o p r o v i d e h u n d r e d s o f t h o u s a n d s o f h o m e s f o r s a l e d u r i n g t h e y e a r s 1946-59. E v e r y e f f o r t w a s m a d e t o p r o v i d e a d e q u a t e s u p p l i e s o f m o r t g a g e m o n e y , t o m a n i p u l a t e t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e , a n d t o s e t f o r t h a p p r o p -r i a t e t e r m s t o e n c o u r a g e i n d i v i d u a l h o m e o w n e r s h i p . N o t o n l y w a s m o r t g a g e m o n e y m a d e a v a i l a b l e t h r o u g h t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t a t r a t e s l o w e r t h a n t h o s e p r e v a i l -i n g i n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t s , b u t d o w n p a y m e n t s w e r e s u c -c e s s i v e l y r e d u c e d a s l o a n a m o u n t s w e r e i n c r e a s e d . T h e " p e r i o d o f a m o r t i z a t i o n i n c r e a s e d f r o m 15 y e a r s i n 1946 t o 20, 25, a n d n o w 30 y e a r s o r m o r e t o e n a b l e l o w e r i n c o m e f a m i l i e s t o a c q u i r e a h o m e o f t h e i r o w n . I f a n y t h i n g , t h i s w a s t h e h e a r t o f o u r h o u s i n g p o l i c y d u r i n g t h e p a s t 25 y e a r s . 6 I n 1964, t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t o f 1954 w a s h e a v i l y a m e n d e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e s e c t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o s o c i a l h o u s i n g . T h e a m e n d m e n t s t r a n s f e r r e d m u c h o f t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s t o l o c a l a n d p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n -m e n t s w h i l e f e d e r a l i n v o l v e m e n t w a s r e d u c e d t o p r i m a r i l y f i n a n c i a l m a t t e r s . S i n c e 1964, t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t h a s e n c o u r a g e d t h e p r o v i n c e s t o a s s u m e t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r h o u s i n g a n d p r o p e r t y w h i l e c o n t i n u i n g t o p r o v i d e m u c h o f t h e f u n d s n e c e s -s a r y f o r t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e i r p r o g r a m m e s . O n t a r i o w a s 21 t h e f i r s t p r o v i n c e t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e n e w o p p o r t u n i t i e s . T h e O n t a r i o H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n c r e a t e d i n 1964 s e t t h e e x a m p l e f o r t h e o t h e r ' p r o v i n c e s a n d b y 1975 a l l o f t h e p r o v i n c e s e x c e p t N o v a S c o t i a h a d e s t a b l i s h e d h o u s i n g c o r p o r a t i o n s . 7 T o d a y , m a n y h o u s i n g p r o g r a m m e s a r e f e d e r a l l y d e s i g n e d a n d f i n a n c e d w h i l e t h e d e c i s i o n t o i m p l e m e n t , a n d t h e a c t u a l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n , o c c u r s a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l a n d m u n i c i p a l l e v e l s . O t h e r p r o g r a m m e s s u c h a s t h e A s s i s t e d H o m e - O w n e r s h i p a n d R e n t a l P r o g r a m m e s h a v e r e m a i n e d c o m p l e t e l y u n d e r t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t ' s c o n t r o l . 2.2 F e d e r a l H o u s i n g A c t i v i t y - D i r e c t I n v o l v e m e n t 2.2.1 N H A - I n s u r e d L e n d i n g P e r h a p s t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e i n f l u e n c e w h i c h t h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t h a s h a d o n h o u s i n g i n p a s t y e a r s i s t h r o u g h t h e N H A -i n s u r e d l e n d i n g p r o g r a m m e . P r i v a t e l e n d i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s h a v e b e e n a u t h o r i z e d t o m a k e l o a n s w h i c h , s i n c e 1954, a r e i n s u r e d u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t . T h e b o r r o w e r p a y s t o C M H C , v i a t h e l e n d e r , a n i n s u r a n c e f e e e q u a l t o a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e l o a n a m o u n t . T h e s e f e e s c o n s t i t u t e a M o r t g a g e I n s u r a n c e F u n d ! ' a g a i n s t w h i c h t h e l e n d e r m a y d r a w i n t h e e v e n t o f d e f a u l t o n t h e p a r t o f t h e b o r r o w e r . T h e f e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t r e t a i n e d t h e r i g h t t o d e t e r m i n e l e n d i n g t e r m s t h a t q u a l i f y f o r i n s u r a n c e a n d t h e r e b y r e m a i n e d i n a p o s i t i o n t o e x e r c i s e c o n s i d e r a b l e i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e w i l l i n g n e s s o f l e n d e r s a n d b o r r o w e r s t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t . P r i o r t o 1967, t h e g o v e r n -m e n t h a d f i x e d t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e a t a s p e c i f i e d l e v e l ( s e e 22 T a b l e 2 .1) . H o w e v e r , i n 1967, t h e N H A - i n t e r e s t c e i l i n g w a s t i e d l J g p e r c e n t a b o v e t h e l o n g - t e r m G o v e r n m e n t o f C a n a d a b o n d r a t e 5f t h e p r e v i o u s q u a r t e r . " I n 1968 t h e y i e l d s p r e a d w a s r a i s e d t o 2\ p e r c e n t a n d I n 1969 t h e N H A - m o r t g a g e r a t e w a s c o m p l e t e l y f r e e d t o f i n d i t s o w n l e v e l i n t h e m a r k e t . B y c r e a t i n g a v i r t u a l l y r i s k - f r e e i n v e s t m e n t a n d b y c h a r g i n g a n i n s u r a n c e f e e b e l o w t h a t w h i c h l e n d e r s m i g h t c h a r g e , t h e f e d e r a l l o a n g u a r a n t e e a n d i n s u r a n c e p r o g r a m m e h a s g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d t h e l o n g - r u n d e s i r a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e i n v e s t m e n t s 9 a n d h a s p u t h o u s i n g w i t h i n t h e r e a c h o f m a n y f a m i l i e s w h o c a n n o t a f f o r d t h e m o r e s t r i n g e n t c o n v e n t i o n a l b o r r o w i n g t e r m s . S i n c e 1954, m a x i m u m l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o s , a m o r t i z a t i o n p e r i o d s a n d g r o s s d e b t s e r v i c e s h a v e b e e n I n i n c r e a s e d ( s e e T a b l e 2 .1) , t h e r e b y r e d u c i n g d o w n p a y m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d e n a b l i n g l o w e r i n c o m e f a m i l i e s t o p a r t i c i -p a t e . P r i o r t o 1966, N H A l e n d i n g w a s l i m i t e d t o p u r c h a s e s o f n e w s i n g l e d e t a c h e d , d w e l l i n g s a n d t o i n v e s t o r s o f m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g u n i t s . B y 1968, l o a n s o n m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g s b e c a m e m o r e n u m e r o u s t h a n l o a n s o n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s . B y 1975, N H A l o a n s o n m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g u n i t s a m o u n t e d t o 72 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l n u m b e r o f l o a n s ( T a b l e 2 .2) . D u r i n g t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s N H A m a x i m u m l o a n l i m i t s f o r s i n g l e d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g h a v e f a l l e n s l o w l y o u t o f l i n e w i t h a c t u a l h o u s e p r i c e s s o t h a t N H A f i n a n c i n g f o r t h i s t y p e o f h o u s i n g h a s b e c o m e m o r e d i f f i c u l t . T a b l e 2.1 Insured Mortgage Loans by Approved Lenders -Changes i n S e l e c t e d Terms, 1954-1975 YEAR MAXIMUM INTEREST RATE MAXIMUM LOAN TO VALUE RATIO MAXIMUM LOAN MAXIMUM AMORTI-ZATION PERIOD MAXIMUM GROSS DEET SERVICE RATIO 1951 5*5 . new s i n g l e detached 90% o f 1st $8,000 70% of r e s t new m u l t i p l e r e n t a l 80? o f v a l u e $12,800 $7,000/unit 25 y r s 23? 1955 5k 1956 5H 1957 6 new s i n g l e detached 90? o f 1st $12,000 70? of r e s t $12,800 27? 1958 ^ m u l t i p l e r e n t a l u n i t s $8,250/unit 1959 6 J/l4 new s i n g l e detached 95? o f 1st $12,000 7: %' o f r e s t m u l t i p l e r e n t a l u n i t s 85% o f v a l u e — $14,200 i f 3 bdrms. or l e s s $11,900 i f It or more bdrms. 35 y r s 1961 6h 1963 6k new s i n g l e detached 95? o f 1st $13,000 70? o f r e s t m u l t i p l e r e n t a l u n i t s $11,900 i f 3 bdrms. or l e s s $15,600 i f k o r more bdrms. $12,000/unit 1965 new s i n g l e detached $18,000 1966 7k m u l t i p l e r e n t a l u n i t s 90? of v a l u e e x i s t i n g detached 95? o f val u e $10,000 1967 8k e x i s t i n g semi-detached 95? o f v a l u e and duplex $10,000/unit 1968 9 1/8 new s i n g l e detached 95? of 1st $18,000 70? o f r e s t new m u l t i p l e r e n t a l u n i t s $18,000 1969 9h r a t e f r e e d new s i n g l e detached 95? of $20,000 80?' o f r e s t new row or semi-detached 90? new m u l t i p l e u n i t r e n t a l 90? e x i s t i n g - 90* $25,000 $25,000/unit $l8,000/unit $18,000 1)0 y r s 1970 10H 1971 9k 1972 8 3 / t new s i n g l e detached 95? new semi-detached, duplex, row-housing 95? o f h o f l e n d i n g v a l u e , 90? o f r e -mainder e x i s t i n g condominiums, c o o p e r a t i v e s m u l t i p l e r e n t a l $30,000 $30,000 $23,000 $23,000 $20,000 30? t2$ 1973 9\ e x i s t i n g f a m i l y u n i t s condominiums, c o o p e r a t i v e a p t . u n i t s (new and e x i s t i n g ) $30,000 $30,000 1971 11% other housing depending on c e n t r e $30,000-$'J0,000 1975 -L l 3 / 4 Source: Real E s t a t e F i n a n c e , Diploma Course. Notes, F a c u l t y o f Commerce and Bu s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, October 1972, page 101. CMHC, Housing S t a t i s t i c s . (1971-1975). T a b l e 2.2 Types o f New D w e l l i n g s F i n a n c e d Under the N a t i o n a l Housing A c t , 1961-1975 (per c e n t ) SINGLE-DETACHED DWELLINGS MULTIPLE DWELLINGS Year Bunga-lows Ik S t o r e y 2 S t o r e y S p l i t L e v e l . TOTAL . Semi Detached . . . .&. Duplex . . Row . Apt. & Others TOTAL 1961 53.9 0.6 2.1 11.6 68.4 7.4 2.6 21.4 31.5 1962 54.9 0.4 3.5 15.0 73.9 6.9 2.8 16 .2 26 .0 1963 51.6 0.4 4.9 14.5 71.6 8.3 3.7 16.3 28.3 1964 44.7 0.3 4.0 11.7 60.9 8,4 4.5 26 .0 39.0 1965 42.9 0.4 4.1 9.9 57.4 8.5 6.9 27.0 42.5 1966 41.4 0.2 5.6 10 .2 57.5 9.1 7.1 26 .1 42.4 1967 32.0 0.1 2.8 6666 41 . 8 10.0 8.5 39.6 58.1 1968 23.6 0.2 ±..f 5.7 31,2 6.4 9.4 52.8 68.7 1969 18.9 0.1 1.6 5.4 26.1 4.5 15.2 54.6 73.8 1970 17.1 O'.l 1.3 4.3 22.9 8.6 15.4 52.8 77.0 1971 20.9 0.1 1.7 7.1 29.9 9.0 12 .3 48.6 70.0 1972 22.6 0.1 1.8 8.3 33.0 7.6 10.9 48.3 66.9 1973 18.7 0.1 1.0 7.2 27.2 4.7 13.0 54.9 72.7 1974 22.6 0.2 0.9 7.5 5.8 12.3 50.4 68.6 1975 19.0 0.1 1.6 6.8 27 .6 5.9 16.4 49.9 72.3 1975 Approved Lenders 18.0 0.2 1.9 8.3 28.5 6..4 13.9 50.9 71.4 CMHC 1975 Source: 20.7 CMHC, Canadian 0.9 Housing 4.2 S t a t i s t ! 26.0 cs 1975, 4.9 Table 78. •20.9 48.0 73.9 25 L i m i t s f o r m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g u n i t s have remained more r e a l i s -t i c and t h e r e f o r e NHA f i n a n c i n g has been s i g n i f i c a n t l y -r e d i r e c t e d t o apartments and row h o u s i n g . I n c o n t r a s t , as a p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l c o m p l e t i o n s , s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d u n i t s c o n t i n u e t o be t h e dominant type of d w e l l i n g , a l t h o u g h the p r o p o r t i o n of m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g u n i t s i s o n l y s l i g h t l y l o wer (Table 2.3). 2.2.2 C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n The C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC) was founded i n 19^5, t o be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the NHA mortgage-l e n d i n g system and t o manage the f e d e r a l government's d i r e c t a c t i o n programmes. The r a t i o n a l e f o r a c h i e f o v e r s e e r o f h o u s i n g i n a n a t i o n the s i z e o f Canada i s d u b i o u s , f o r the problems of h o u s i n g and the r e a l p r o p e r t y markets i n -g e n e r a l are i n d e e d v e r y l o c a l i n n a t u r e (see Chapter 3). However, the f a c t t h a t t h e r e i s a c e n t r a l f e d e r a l h o u s i n g agency p r o v i d e s an i n s t i t u t i o n a l o u t l e t f o r e x p r e s s i o n o f f e d e r a l h o u s i n g p o l i c y . A statement c o n t a i n e d i n the l a t e s t a n n u a l r e p o r t (1975) d e s c r i b e s the c o r p o r a t i o n ' s o b j e c t i v e s : The C o r p o r a t i o n ' s p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e i s t h a t a l l Canadians have a c c e s s t o adequate h o u s i n g at a p r i c e t hey can a f f o r d w i t h i n a s u i t a b l e community e n v i r o n -ment. I n meeting t h i s o b j e c t i v e the C o r p o r a t i o n ' s a c t i v i t i e s and programs f a l l i n t o two g e n e r a l c a t e -g o r i e s : (a) F i n a n c i n g h o u s i n g d i r e c t l y t h r o u g h the making o f mortgage l o a n s under s p e c i f i e d c o n d i t i o n s a t i n t e r e s t r a t e s s e t by s t a t u t e n o r m a l l y below mar-ket r a t e s (which a r e g e n e r a l l y h i g h e r t h a n th e r a t e i t pays on funds borrowed from the Government o f Canada), and i n d i r e c t l y by g u a r a n t e e i n g l o a n s made by o t h e r s . (b) As agent f o r the M i n i s t r y o f S t a t e f o r Urban A f f a i r s making payments needed t o implement government hous-i n g p o l i c y . These i n c l u d e g r a n t s , debt f o r g i v e n e s s , l o s s e s on r e a l e s t a t e , l o s s e s under F e d e r a l - P r o v i n -c i a l agreements, r e s e a r c h and development and s p e c i -f i e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e expenses. These payments are charged t o the M i n i s t e r as i n c u r r e d . 1 0 26 Table 2.3 Dwelling Completions by (per cent and Type, t o t a l ) 1949-1975 YEAR SINGLE DETACHED SEMI DETACHED & DUPLEX ROW APT. & OTHERS TOTAL COMPLETIONS 1961 65.8 9.1 1.7 23.2 115.608 1962 59.6 9.4 1.9 28.9 126,682 1963 55.8 5.5 2.7 35.8 128,191 1964 50.4 5.3 2.5 41.5 150,963 1965 49.0 5.7 2.6 42.5 153,037 1966 45.5 4.7 3-9 45-7 162,192 1967 49.3 6.0 3.6 40.9 149,242 1968 43.6 5.9 4.6 45.8 170,993 1969 40.1 5.3 3.9 50.5 195,826 1970 37.8 5.1 6.5 50.4 175,827 1971 41. 2 6.2 8.3 44.1 201,232 1972 45.8 5.6 6.2 42.2 232,227 1973 49.7 5.4 6.0 38.7 246,581 1974 50.4 4.8 7.4 37.2 257,243 1975 52.2 5.6 7.4 34.6 216,964 Source: CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1975, Table 9. 27 The f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e a v a i l a b l e under the programmes which a re a d m i n i s t e r e d by CMHC c o n s i s t s o f b o t h l o a n s and sub-s i d i e s t o be a p p l i e d t o a range of h o u s i n g and community p r o -j e c t s . S i n c e the c o n c e r n of t h i s paper l i e s w i t h h o u s i n g and i n p a r t i c u l a r w i t h the government's i n f l u e n c e on h o u s i n g t y p e , s i z e , t e n u r e and l o c a t i o n , CMHC's programmes f o r community development and improvement w i l l not be d i s c u s s e d . 2.2.3 Housing 2.2.3.1 P u b l i c Housing The 1949 amendments t o the N a t i o n a l Housing Act p r o -v i d e d f o r a c o n t i n u i n g programme of p u b l i c h o u s i n g ( P a r t IV, s e c t i o n 40-45 t o d a y ) . The l e g i s l a t i o n p e r m i t t e d f e d e r a l -p r o v i n c i a l agreements on a 75 :25 per cent c o s t - s h a r i n g b a s i s ( f o r s a l e or f o r r e n t ) . D e f i c i t s were t o be shared i n the same p r o p o r t i o n . By 1955 o n l y 3,000 l o w - r e n t a l u n i t s had been produced and an o t h e r 2,500 had been a u t h o r i z e d . 1 1 CMHC -f i n a n c e d urban r e n e w a l s t u d i e s over the next few y e a r s r e v e a l e d a need f o r low income h o u s i n g and as a r e s u l t p u b l i c h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d t o 7,000 u n i t s per y e a r . 1 2 However, p r o g r e s s i n t h e f i e l d o f p u b l i c h o u s i n g c o n t i n u e d t o be slow due t o f i e r c e o p p o s i t i o n a t the l o c a l l e v e l where i r o n i c a l l y the i n i t i a t i v e f o r such p r o j e c t s was, a c c o r d i n g t o the l e g i s l a t i o n , t o o c c u r . Added t o t h e c i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n , l o c a l governments were f i -n a n c i a l l y hard p r e s s e d and were n a t u r a l l y r e l u c t a n t t o have t h e i r ex-penses i n c r e a s e d f u r t h e r by p u b l i c i h o u s i n g c o s t s and o p e r a t i n g d e f i -c i t s . The f e d e r a l government meanwhile i n s i s t e d on a h i g h degree of in v o l v e m e n t i n the p l a n n i n g and d e s i g n i n g o f a l l s t a g e s of the p r o j e c t s . I t s e f f o r t s t o a c h i e v e an e x c e p t i o n -28 a l l y h i g h degree o f q u a l i t y meant t h a t q u a n t i t y by d e f a u l t was low. By I96 0 , the t o t a l number o f p u b l i c h o u s i n g d w e l l i n g u n i t s a v a i l a b l e f o r r e n t t o low income f a m i l i e s d i d not exceed 15,000. 1 3 The 1964 amendments t o the N a t i o n a l Housing Act brought the Canadian p r o v i n c e s d i r e c t l y i n t o t h e f i e l d of pub-l i c h o u s i n g f o r the f i r s t t i m e . CMHC under s e c t i o n 35c o f the Act was p e r m i t t e d t o make l o a n s t o a p r o v i n c e , m u n i c i p a l i t y or a p u b l i c h o u s i n g agency f o r up t o 90 per cent o f the c o s t of a c q u i r i n g and s e r v i c i n g the l a n d , and c o n s t r u c t i n g , a c q u i r -i n g and o p e r a t i n g p u b l i c h o u s i n g p r o j e c t s . S i n c e the 1964 l e g i s l a t i o n , a u t h o r i z e d f e d e r a l g o v e r n -ment l o a n s t o p u b l i c h o u s i n g has i n c r e a s e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n a b s o l u t e terms from $60.9 m i l l i o n i n 1966 t o $296.2 m i l l i o n i n 1975 but as a p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l i n v e s t m e n t s . p u b l i c h o u s i n g i n v o l v e m e n t has f a l l e n from a peak o f 32 per cent i n 1972 t o 18.4 per cent i n 1975. I n 1975 p u b l i c h o u s i n g s u b s i d i e s o . : . : . o amounted t o $87 m i l l i o n (see Table 2 .4) . The reduced f i n a n c i a l i n v o l v e m e n t i n p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e p r e s e n t s a growing p r e f e r e n c e t o a s s i s t l ower income house-h o l d s compete f o r h o u s i n g w i t h i n the market. The A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programme and the A s s i s t e d R e n t a l Programme attempt t o make bo t h r e n t a l and owned accommodation a c c e s s i b l e to the lower income s e c t o r . 2.2.3.2 Home-Ownership A programme o f a s s i s t e d home-ownership was f i r s t em-barked upon i n 1970. The S p e c i a l $200 M i l l i o n Low-Cost Housing Programme was de s i g n e d t o r e a c h f a m i l i e s i n the $4000 t o $6000 Table 2.4(a) P u b l i c Funds A u t h o r i z e d Under the N a t i o n a l Housing Act, 1966-1975 ( m i l l i o n s o f dollar:;) Non-Budgetary Funds A u t h o r i z e d - Loans and Investments S e c t i o n Item 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Loan and Mort-gage Purchases 4.2 18.1 _ - I * P u b l i c Housing 0O.0 .114.3 123.5 170.5 235.4 277.0 238.4 199.7 177 .-4 296 . 2 MO F e d e r a l - P r o v i n -c i a l Ilouslnr 27.9 29.0 31.5 39.1 51.3 58.1 96 . 2 40 F e d e r a l - F r o v l n -c l a l Land Assembly 14.6 34 .4 .41.0 9.0 9.4 10.3 67.9 23.4 20.8 18.9 15, 15.1 Non-l'rorit C o r p o r a t i o n s 31.0 72.9 79.3 42.9 95.1 124 .7 159.0 15. E n t r e p r e n e u r s 20.0 31.0 86.8 146.0 241.2 231.9 94.7 59 .5 74.5 235.2 55 D i r e c t A c q u l s i t l o n .6 1.9 .2 .1 4.0 11.4 11.n 34. l b C o o p e r a t i v e s - - - _ _ _ _ 7.6 19.8 44.4 ' 34 .15 A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership _ 133 .1 435.2 458.2 34.1 R e s i d e n t i a l R e h a b i l i t a t i o n _ • _ 4.2 14 .9 47 Student Housing 53.2 56.6 73.8 55.5 41.0 36.7 14.4 • 3.8 4.0 rt 58, 59 Other D i r e c t Lending 4 51.1 512.7 251.9 163.1 361.5 202.5 110.0 38.2 39.6 13.6 27.5 i JL Neighbourhood Improvement _ _ _ 3.0 10.6 25 TT3 Urban Renewal 1.1 . •b.6 "14.5 " 4.0 15.0 13.4 .8 .7 5  Sewage t r e a t -ment P r o j e c t s • 34.1 31.2 39.5 50.2 77.7 113.7 114.8 153-8 17-1.9 18.3.3 42 —TTr= n Land A c q u i s i t i o n and Assembly _ _ 8.2 15.1 11.0 6.5 161.8 80.6 61.3 45.1 New. Communities F e d e r a l - P r o v i n -c i a l 45.2 New Communities Loans - - - - _ _ ' T 0 T A L 639.2 : .7 628.1 676.5 1090.1 1009 .1. 742.0 932 .6 1225.2 1604.8-Grants, C o n t r i b u t i o n s and S u b s i d i e s - Budgetary E x p e n d i t u r e s S e c t i o n Item 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 PI V Housing Research 2.2 3.1 •3 .'8 4.2 4.3 6.7 8.0 6.4 9.3 12.2 23, 24 Urban Renewal Grants 6.6 .8.0 ' 13.0 24.0 23.4 22.3 20.7 13.9 13 .5 10.1 53 Sewage T r e a t -ment Loan F o r -giveness 7.9 7.9 6.1 6.2 6.9 14.3 23.1 37.8 25.7 34 .1 40, 44 P u b l i c Housing S u b s i d i e s 2.1 2.4 4.4 5.4 9.4 17.1 30.0 46.2 63.4 87.0 Cite-du-Havre - - 1.2 _ .4 bosses r e Mortgage S a l e s 34 .16 A s s i s t e d Home-Owner ship-CMHC , _ _ .7 5-.0 9.3 'Krt-'ate - - - - - _ _ . g 34.11, 34.14 R e s i d e n t i a l R e h a b i l i t a t i o n - - - - _ _ _ 1.2 10.1 27.2, 27.4 Neighbourhood Improvement _ _ _ _ .1 2.7 6.3 27.6 G r a n v i l l e I s l a n d - - - - - - - 5.8 .7 2.6 R u r a l & Na t i v e Housing _ _ _ _ _ _ 5.7 5.9 15.1 Non-ProTit - - - - - - - - b.4 11.4 34.18 C o o p e r a t i v e s - - - - - _ _ - 1.8 45.1, 45.2 New Communities _ _ _ .1 .1 I n t e r e s t Rate Loss _ _ 4.1 8.4 Real E s t a t e Loss - - - - - - - - 5.8 9.6 F i r s t - T i m e Home Buyers Grant 39.. 8 A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Fe S S - - - - - t - - - - 1.2 14.1 A s s i s t e d R e n t a l Programme _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .2 T 0 T A L 18.8 21.4 27.3 41.0 44.0 62.4 81.8 110.9 144.0 251.0 Source: CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s , (1970-1975). Table 2 . It (b) I (percentages) N o n - B u d g e t a r y F u n d s A u t h o r i z e d - L o a n s a n d I n v e s t m e n t s 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1971 1975 P u b l i c H o u s i n g 9 5 11 1 20 1 25 2 21.5 27 .1 32.1 21 1 11 .1 18.1 f e d e r a l - P r o v i n -c i a l H o u s i n g ft 1 2.6 3.1 5.2 5 1 .7 5.9 F e d e r a l - P r o v i n - 2 2 h 2 b 5 c i a l L a n d A s s e m b l y 1 3 .8 1.0 9.1 2 5 1 .6 1.1 N o n - P r o f i t C o r p o r a t i o n s 1 5 6.6 7.8 5.7 10 1 10 .1 9 .9 E n t r e p r e n e u r s 3 1 3 a 13 8 21 5 22.1 22.9 12.6 6 6 . 0 l i t . 6 D i r e c t A c q u i s i t i o n 0 .1 0 0 1 .9 .7 C o o p e r a t i v e s - - - 8 1 .t> 2.7 A s s i s t e d H o m e - O w n e r s h i p - - - 11 2 35 .5 28.5 R e s i d e n t i a l R e h a b i l i t a t i o n - - - .3 . 9 S t u d e n t H o u s i n g 8 3 7 0 11 7 8 2 3.7 3.6 1.9 1 .3 0 O t h e r D i r e c t L e n d i n g 70 5 63. i) 10 1 21 1 33.1 20.0 11.8 1 0 3 .2 .8 N e i g h b o u r h o o d I m p r o v e m e n t L o a n s .2 .6 U r b a n R e n e w a l L o a n s 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 .3 1.1 1.8 0 0 Sewage T r e a t -men t P r o j e c t s 5 3 3 8 6 2 7 1 7.1 11.2 15.1 16 1 11 ,0 11.1 L a n d A c q u i s t i o n a n d A s s e m b l y 1 2 1.3 1.0 .8 17 3 6 .5 3.8 New C o m m u n i t i e s F e d e r a l - P r o v i n -c i a l - - - -New C o m m u n i t i e s L o a n s - - - -L o a n a n d ' M o r t -g a g e P u r c h a s e s 6 2 2 - - - -G r a n t s , C o n t r i b u t i o n s a n d S u b s i d i e s - B u d g e t a r y E x p e n d i t u r e s 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 H o u s i n g R e s e a r c h 11.7 11.1 13.9 10.2 9.7 10.7 U r b a n R e n e w a l G r a n t s 35 1 37 3 17.6 58 5 53.1 35.7 25 3 12.5 9 3 1.0 Sewage T r e a t -ment L o a n F o r -g i v e n e s s 12 0 36 9 22.3 15 1 15.6 22.9 28 2 31.0 17 8 13.5 P u b l i c H o u s i n g S u b s i d i e s 11 1 11 2 16.1 13 1 21.3 27.1 36 6 11.6 11 0 31.6 C i t e - d u - H a v r e - '<> 9 - - - -L o s s e s r e M o r t -g a g e S a l e s _ _ 3.2 _ _ A s s i s t e d Home-O w n e r s h i p - C H H C , _ .6 3 1 3.7 P r i v a t e - - -R e s i d e n t i a l R e h a b i l i t a t i o n - - - _ - - .8 1.0 N e i g h b o u r h o o d • 1 I m p r o v e m e n t - - - - - - - . g 1.8 2 . 5 G r a n v i l l e I n l a n d - - - z - 1 5.2 .,1 1.0 R u r a l & N a t i v e H o u s i n g , - - - - - - 3 9 2.3 N o n - P r o f i t - - - ' - - - - 1 1 It.5 C o o p e r a t i v e s - - - - - - .7 New C o m m u n i t i e s - - - - - - 0 0 I n t e r e s t R a t e L o s s - - - - - - - 2 8 3.3 H e a l h s t a t e L o s s - - - - - - l\ 0 3.8 F i r s t - T i m e Home B u y e r s . G r a n t s - - - - - - - 15.8 N o t e : C o m m i t m e n t d a t a s h o w n h e r e a r e t h e f u n d 3 a u t h o r i z e d a n d may v a r y f r o m o t h e r CMHC i n f o r m a t i o n d u e t o d e l a y s i n r e c e i v i n g s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a f o r a u t h o r i z e d f u n d s . 1972 1973 1971 1975 9.7 5.7 6.1 1.8 S o u r c e : CMHC, C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s , (1970-1975). 31 range t h r o u g h e i t h e r home-ownership o r r e n t a l r o u t e s . A $100 M i l l i o n A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programme was i n t r o d u c e d i n 1971 as an e x t e n s i o n t o t h i s programme but was a l l o t t e d t o home-ownership e x c l u s i v e l y . I n 1973, t h e A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programme (AHOP) was i n t r o d u c e d as a c o n t i n u i n g programme i n t e n d e d t o a i d low and moderate income f a m i l i e s . w i t h a t l e a s t one c h i l d t o own a home w i t h o u t spending more th a n a " r e a s o n a b l e p o r t i o n " o f t h e i r income on mortgage payments and m u n i c i p a l t a x e s . CMHC a s s i s t -ance would reduce t h e i r mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e t o an e f f e c t i v e r a t e as low as 8 iperccent . An a d d i t i o n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n was a v a i l a b l e t o reduce debt s e r v i c e t o 25 per cent i f n e c e s s a r y . The programme was o r i g i n a l l y d e s i g n e d f o r b o t h new and e x i s t -i n g h o u s i n g but i n 1974 was d i r e c t e d s o l e l y at new c o n s t r u c t i o n . L e g i s l a t i o n i n l a t e 1974, expanded the programme t o i n c l u d e NHA - i n s u r e d l o a n s i s s u e d by p r i v a t e l e n d i n g I n s t i t u -t i o n s . D i r e c t CMHC l o a n s were t o be r e s e r v e d f o r lower-income f a m i l i e s . I n 1975, AHOP was a g a i n amended t o a l l o w any Canadian household o f two or more peopl e t o a p p l y f o r AHOP a s s i s t a n c e on new, m o d e r a t e l y - p r i c e d h o u s i n g . Grants t o r r e d u c e debt s e r v i c e were i n c r e a s e d from $600 t o $750 and i n t e r e s t - r e d u c i n g l o a n s were made i n t e r e s t - f r e e f o r t he f i r s t f i v e y e a r s . a n d t h e r e a f t e r r e p a y a b l e w i t h i n t e r e s t . D u r i n g 1975, i n t e r e s t r a t e s on NHA l o a n s i s s u e d , f o r new homes by approved l e n d e r s v a r i e d between 10 and 12 per cent (see Table 2 .5) . The i n t e r e s t - r e d u c i n g a s s i s t a n c e t h e r e -f o r e v a r i e d a c c o r d i n g t o the change i n the NHA r a t e but averaged 32 a p p r o x i m a t e l y gliper cent o f the l o a n . I n 1973 the amount o f a s s i s t a n c e r e q u i r e d t o reduce the r a t e t o 8 per cent would have been somewhat l o w e r . Table 2.5 Average NHA I n t e r e s t Rate on Approved L e n d e r s ' Home-Ownership Loans, 1972-1975, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE 1972 8.83 8.76 8.79 8.78 8.83 8.98 1973 .9.06 9.00 9.02 9.01 9.07 9.25 1974 9.90 10.09 10.05 9.97 10.56 10.69 1975 11.68 11.02 11.04 10.40 10.52 10.68 JULY, AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 1972 9.02 9.08 9.06 9.14 9.08 9.00 1973 9.42 9.59 9.72 9.98 9,80 9.88 1974 11.23 11.29 11.77 11.64 11.80 11.75 1975 10.90 11.16 11.32 11.55 11.90 11.89 Source: CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1975, Table 77. I n 1975, CMHC made 15,798 d i r e c t l o a n s under AHOP t o t a l l i n g $446 m i l l i o n , b r i n g i n g the t o t a l s p ending on the programme s i n c e i n c e p t i o n t o $1,025 m i l l i o n w hich r e p r e s e n t s l o a n s f o r 4l,368 homes. The p r i v a t e s e c t o r f i n a n c e d a f u r t h e r 8,701 new homes w i t h l o a n s t o t a l l i n g $343-5 m i l l i o n . 1 1 * S i n c e 1973, the p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l a s s i s t a n c e which went t o s i n g l e -detached h o u s i n g dropped by 10 per cent w h i l e a s s i s t a n c e t o apartment ownership i n c r e a s e d by t h a t amount (T a b l e 2 .6) . However, s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g c o n t i n u e s t o be the l a r g e s t r e c i p i e n t o f AHOP a s s i s t a n c e w i t h 54 per cent o f t o t a l 1975 a s s i s t a n c e g o i n g t o t h i s t y p e o f h o u s i n g . Condominium owner-Table 2.6 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Loans Approved f o r New Housing f o r Home-Ownership under NHA, 1973-1975 SINGLE DETACHED U n i t s % D W E L I SEMI-DETACHED & DUPLEX U n i t s % , I N G T Y P I ROW U n i t s % APT. & OTHERS U n i t s % TOTAL U n i t s % 19731 4,223 64 .7 560 8.5 1,668 25.5 7.1 1.0 6,522 100 19742 6,854 60.4 1,232 10.8 2,755 24 .3 495 4.3 11,336 100 19753 14,323 54.4 2,367 8.9 6 ,694 25.4 2 ,941 11.1 26,325 100 TOTAL 25 ,400 57.4 4,159 9.4 11,117 25.1 3,507 7.9 44 ,183 100 FREEHOLD # % T E N U R E CONDOMINIUM # % OTHERS # % TOTAL # % 1973 1 1974 2 1975 3 TOTAL 5,035 8,426 17,505 30,966 77 .2 7^ .3 66 .4 70 .0 1,212 2,776 8,664 12-652 18.5 24 .4 3.2.9 28 .6 275 134 156 565 4 . 2 1 .1 .5 1 .2 6,522 11,336 26,325 44,183 100 100 100 100 Source: CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1973, T a b l e 91. CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1974, T a b l e 87. CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1975, T a b l e 89. 1 I n c l u d e s CMHC A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programmes ( s e c t i o n s 34.15, 58 and 59) and Co-o p e r a t i v e Housing ( s e c t i o n 3^.18). 2 I n c l u d e s CMHC f i n a n c i n g under s e c t i o n 34.15 ( A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership). 3 I n c l u d e s CMHC f i n a n c i n g under s e c t i o n 34.15 ( A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership) and s e c t i o n 6 (NHA i n s u r e d l e n d i n g ) . 34 s h i p o f u n i t s r e c e i v i n g AHOP a s s i s t a n c e s i n c e 1973 has i n c r e a s e d from 18.5 per cent t o almost o n e - t h i r d i n 1975-2.2.3.3 $500 Home Buyer Grant I n December 1974, the f e d e r a l government i n i t i a t e d a programme t o p r o v i d e a $500 g r a n t t o a l l f i r s t - t i m e p u r c h a s e r s of m o d e r a t e l y - p r i c e d , new h o u s i n g . P r i c e l i m i t s were e s t a b -l i s h e d by a r e a . A p p r o x i m a t e l y $37 m i l l i o n i n g r a n t s were d i s t r i b u t e d d u r i n g 1975, the o n l y year which t h e programme was o p e r a t i v e . 1 5 2.2.3.4 Home Improvement Loans Home improvement l o a n s f o r a d d i t i o n s , r e p a i r s and r.l a l t e r a t i o n s t o e x i s t i n g homes and apartments a r e a v a i l a b l e from c h a r t e r e d banks and approved i n s t a l m e n t c r e d i t a g e n c i e s . CMHC p r o v i d e s a l i m i t e d guarantee t o the l e n d i n g i n s t i t u t i o n i n r e t u r n f o r an i n s u r a n c e f e e which i s p a i d by th e borrower. I n 1975 such l o a n s t o t a l l e d some $15-8 m i l l i o n w h i l e the Home Improvement Loan In s u r a n c e Fund p a i d $290,000 f o r l o s s c l a i m s . 1 6 2.2.3.5 A s s i s t e d R e n t a l Low r e n t a l a s s i s t a n c e d a t es back t o the N a t i o n a l  Housing Act o f 1938. Under the L i m i t e d D i v i d e n d Programme, CMHC c o u l d i s s u e l o a n s a t p r e f e r r e d l e n d i n g r a t e s t o l o c a l h o u s i n g p r o j e c t s . Rents were not t o exceed o n e - f i f t h o f f a m i l y income and p r o f i t s were l i m i t e d t o 5 per c e n t . P a r t i -c i p a t i o n i n the programme was low u n t i l 1957-59 when l i m i t e d funds elsewhere i n the market f o r c e d b u i l d e r s t o r e s o r t t o u s i n g p u b l i c f u n d s . I n 1963 t h e programme was v i r t u a l l y d i s -c o n t i n u e d because o f the low q u a l i t y o f the h o u s i n g f i n a n c e d . 35 u n d e r t h e p r o g r a m m e . T h e p r o g r a m m e w a s t e m p o r a r i l y r e d i r e c t e d t o w a r d n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s u n t i l 1967 w h e n r i s i n g h o u s i n g c o s t s a n d l o w v a c a n c y r a t e s i n r e n t a l h o u s i n g p r o m p t e d C M H C t o m o d i f y t h e p r o g r a m m e t o l u r e e n t r e p r e n e u r s b a c k i n t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f m o d e r a t e l y - p r i c e d h o u s i n g . T h e l e n d i n g r a t i o w a s i n c r e a s e d f r o m 90 t o 95 p e r c e n t o f t h e a p p r a i s e d v a l u e o f t h e b u i l d i n g a n d t h e 5 p e r c e n t l i m i t o n p r o f i t s w a s r e m o v e d . T h e l o a n c o u l d b e r e p a i d i n f u l l a f t e r 15 y e a r s a t w h i c h t i m e r e n t s w o u l d b e d e c o n t r o l l e d . C M H C h a d t h u s r e t u r n e d t o a r e l i a n c e o n t h e m a r k e t t o p r o d u c e r e n t a l s a t b e l o w m a r = k e t r a t e s . M a n a g e m e n t c o n c e r n s a n d s i z e l i m i t a t i o n s w e r e r e l a x e d . P r o g r a m m e a c t i v i t y i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y f o l l o w i n g t h e s e l e g i s l a t i v e a n d p o l i c y m o d i f i c a t i o n s b u t h a v e r e c e n t l y r e t u r n e d t o a l o w l e v e l . T o d a y , e n t r e p r e n e u r s m a y r e c e i v e a s s i s t a n c e t h r o u g h t e i t h e r t h e L i m i t e d D i v i d e n d P r o g r a m m e o r t h e A s s i s t e d R e n t a l P r o g r a m m e . L i m i t e d D i v i d e n d P r o g r a m m e U n d e r s e c t i o n 15 o f t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , C M H C m a y m a k e l o a n s t o a n y p e r s o n s t o a s s i s t w i t h l o w r e n t a l h o u s -i n g p r o j e c t s . F u n d s a r e a v a i l a b l e a t 8 p e r c e n t i n t e r e s t o n u p t o 95 p e r c e n t o f t h e p r o j e c t ' s l e n d i n g v a l u e a n d a r e a m o r t i z e d o v e r a 50 y e a r p e r i o d . T e n a n t s m u s t b e b e l o w a s p e c i f i e d i n c o m e l e v e l b u t a r e n o t r e q u i r e d t o v a c a t e i f t h e i r i n c o m e s r i s e . R e n t s a r e t o b e a t 25 p e r c e n t o f i n g o i n g i n c o m e a n d m a y t h e r e a f t e r b e i n c r e a s e d o n l y t h e a m o u n t o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t i n c r e a s e s . D u r i n g 1975, s o m e $235 m i l l i o n i n l o a n c o m m i t m e n t s w e r e i s s u e d r e p r e s e n t i n g 10,075 u n i t s a n d 5^5 h o s t e l b e d s . 36 O n l y $75 m i l l i o n w a s i s s u e d u n d e r t h e p r o g r a m m e i n 1974 . 1 7 A s s i s t e d R e n t a l P r o g r a m m e ( A R P ) R e n t a l h o u s i n g w h i c h i s f u n d e d b y p r i v a t e i n s t i t u -t i o n s m a y a l s o q u a l i f y f o r a s s i s t a n c e i f r e n t a l l e v e l s a r e s e t a t o n e - f i f t h o f f a m i l y i n c o m e . A n a n n u a l g r a n t o f u p t o $1200 i s p r o v i d e d f o r e a c h h o u s i n g u n i t f o r t h e t e r m o f t h e r e n t a l a g r e e m e n t (5 t o 15 y e a r s ) . A s t h e i n i t i a l c a p i -t a l o u t l a y s a r e p a i d t h e a s s i s t a n c e i s r e d u c e d , r e n t s m a y b e r a i s e d a n e q u i v a l e n t a m o u n t a n d t h e p r o j e c t t h u s b e c o m e s " s e l f - s u p p o r t i n g " . T h e g r a n t s a r e r e c o v e r a b l e a f t e r t h e t e r m o f t h e r e n t a l a g r e e m e n t o r u p o n s a l e o f t h e p r o j e c t . D u r i n g 1975, p r i v a t e l e n d e r s a p p r o v e d l o a n s t o t a l -l i n g $444 m i l l i o n f o r 21,092 u n i t s c o n s t r u c t e d u n d e r t h e p r o g r a m m e . 1 8 2.2.3.6 A s s i s t a n c e f o r S p e c i a l G r o u p s U n d e r s e c t i o n 15.1 o f t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , C M H C i s a u t h o r i z e d t o m a k e 100 p e r c e n t l o a n s a n d g r a n t s o f u p t o 10 p e r c e n t o f c a p i t a l c o s t s t o c h a r i t a b l e ' o r g a n i z a t i o n s a n d c o o p e r a t i v e a n d n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g c o r p o r a t i o n s . T h e p r o g r a m m e i s i n t e n d e d t o p r o v i d e h o u s i n g t o s e n i o r c i t i z e n s a t m o d e s t r a t e s a n d t o e n c o u r a g e p e o p l e t o p l a n a n d m a n a g e h o u s i n g p r o j e c t s f o r t h e m s e l v e s . I n 1974, a R u r a l a n d N a t i v e P r o g r a m m e w a s i n t r o d u c e d t o e n c o u r a g e s m a l l a n d n a t i v e s e t t l e -m e n t s i n r e m o t e a r e a s t o u s e t h e p r o g r a m m e . 37 222.4 D i r e c t F e d e r a l Involvement i n Housing - Summary I f t he amount o f f e d e r a l spending on each programme i s a c c e p t e d as an i n d i c a t i o n o f government o b j e c t i v e s i n h o u s i n g , the sc h e d u l e o f l o a n s and i n v e s t m e n t s and g r a n t s i n Table 2.4 r e v e a l s t h r e e major c o n c e r n s . P u b l i c h o u s i n g p r o -grammes f i n a n c e d under s e c t i o n s 40 and 43 o f the N a t i o n a l Housing Act r e c e i v e d t he h i g h e s t amount o f spending i n the l a t e 1960's. However, i n 1970, w i t h the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a home-ownership p l a n and s p e c i a l i n c e n t i v e s t o e n t r e p r e n e u r s i n r e n t a l h o u s i n g , f e d e r a l s pending became more e q u a l l y d i s -t r i b u t e d among p u b l i c , r e n t a l and owned h o u s i n g . P u b l i c n h o u s i n g s p e n d i n g has s i n c e f a l l e n below t h a t o f e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l and ownership a s s i s t a n c e . The e x t e n s i o n o f the A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programme to i n c o r p o r a t e the use o f p r i v a t e funds i s i l l u s t r a t i v e o f the f e d e r a l government's enthusiasm f o r home-ownership. F u r t h e r -more, s i n c e the a s s i s t a n c e does not r e a c h lower income house-h o l d s (see Appendix) and s i n c e w e a l t h i e r households a re d i s -couraged from u s i n g the programme by the upper l i m i t s imposed on house p r i c e s , i t can s a f e l y be assumed t h a t t he o b j e c t i v e l i e s w i t h l a r g e - s c a l e home-ownership f o r the average Canadian house h o l d . The maximum p r i c e l i m i t s e s t a b l i s h e d by CMHC f o r v a r i o u s m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s p r e v e n t a p p l i c a t i o n of the a s s i s t -ance t o h i g h e r - p M c e d c e n t r a l - c i t y l o c a t i o n s w i t h the excep-t i o n o f s m a l l e r condominium u n i t s . The m a j o r i t y of AHOP" u n i t s a r e l o c a t e d i n the l e s s dense urban a r e a s where AHOP b u i l d e r s may s u c c e s s f u l l y b i d f o r l a n d . S i m i l a r l y , the d e s i g n o f the r e n t a l programmes i s such 38 t h a t even w i t h i n t e r e s t r a t e s as low as 8 per cent and l o a n s o f $1 , 2 0 0 per u n i t , b u i l d e r s cannot r e a l i z e an a c c e p t a b l e r a t e o f r e t u r n i n c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s when net income i s c o n s t r a i n e d by c o n t r o l l e d r e n t s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , a s s i s t e d r e n t a l p r o j e c t s become r e l e g a t e d t o l e s s c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s where l a n d p r i c e s do not gouge i n t o the b u i l d e r ' s p r o f i t s . 2 . 3 F e d e r a l Housing A c t i v i t y - I n d i r e c t Involvement The programmes a d m i n i s t e r e d by CMHC r e p r e s e n t d i r e c t f e d e r a l government i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g i n Canada. T h i s i s , however, o n l y a p o r t i o n o f f e d e r a l h o u s i n g , . p o l i c y . The f e d e r a l t a x system" s e r v e s as an e f f e c t i v e i n s t r u m e n t of the government f o r s h a p i n g the economy, i n c l u d i n g the h o u s i n g s t o c k . The f e d e r a l income t a x system o p e r a t e s as b o t h a r e d i s -t r i b u t i v e and r e a l l o c a t i v e p r o c e s s . The r e a l income of one c l a s s o f i n d i v i d u a l s can be d e c r e a s e d by a p p l y i n g a t a x t o t t h e i r income w h i l e the r e a l income of t h o s e s u b j e c t e d t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t or not a t a l l i s i n c r e a s e d . Thus, a r e d i s t r i b u -t i o n o f w e a l t h i s a c h i e v e d . However, by t a x i n g the consumption of p a r t i c u l a r commodities, w h i l e not t a x i n g o t h e r s , the t a x system becomes a r e a l l o c a t i v e p r o c e s s . The non-taxed commodity becomes r e l a t i v e l y cheaper and a s h i f t i n consumption towards t h a t commodity w i l l r e s u l t . The i n c r e a s e d demand f o r the non-t a x e d commodity t r i g g e r s an i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e s and thus p r o -v i d e s the n e c e s s a r y i n c e n t i v e . f o r p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s t o s h i f t t o the non-taxed commodity. The end r e s u l t i s a r e a l l o -c a t i o n o f consumption and p r o d u c t i o n . 39 I t i s not u n u s u a l f o r the two p r o c e s s e s t o be i n t e r -r e l a t e d . I f one c l a s s o f i n d i v i d u a l s tends t o consume one type o f commodity w h i l e a second c l a s s consumes a n o t h e r and a t a x a p p l i e d t o one o f the commodities but not the o t h e r , the consumer o f the non-taxed commodity i s f a v o u r e d . I f b o t h commodities were v a l u e d e q u a l l y p r i o r t o the t a x , t h e n the consumer o f the t a x e d commodity w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o devote a l a r g e r share o f h i s income towards consumption o f the commodity a f t e r the t a x . T h e r e f o r e , a r e a l l o c a t i v e t a x may have r e d i s -t r i b u t i v e r e p e r c u s s i o n s . L i k e w i s e , a r e d i s t r i b u t i v e t a x may have r e a l l o c a t i v e e f f e c t s . F o r example, i f consumption o f o i l f o r h e a t i n g above a s p e c i f i e d l e v e l i s c o n s i d e r e d i n excess of what i s adequate and such excess consumption i s - - a s s o c i - -a t e d w i t h w e a l t h i e r , h o u s e h o l d s , t a x a p p l i e d t o the-excess would r e d i s t r i b u t e w e a l t h from w e a l t h i e r households t o the l e s s w e a l t h y h o u s e h o l d s . However, i f i n response t o the t a x , households p r e f e r t o consume e l e c t r i c i t y f o r h e a t i n g , a r e a l l o c a t i o n o f consumption between h e a t i n g methods w i l l r e s u l t . The f e d e r a l t a x system has had b o t h r e d i s t r i b u t i o n a l and r e a l l o c a t i v e e f f e c t s on the h o u s i n g s t o c k and I t s consumers. The d i r e c t i o n o f t h e e f f e c t s has g e n e r a l l y been towards home-owners, and home-ownership u n i t s . The f o l l o w i n g two cases of h o u s i n g - r e l a t e d t a x e s r e v e a l a p r e f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t o f home-onwership over r e n t i n g . 2 . 3 . 1 Imputed Net Income The f i r s t case can be b e s t i l l u s t r a t e d by the use o f h y p o t h e t i c a l example. Suppose two d w e l l i n g u n i t s a r e , f o r a l l i n t e n t s and p u r p o s e s , i d e n t i c a l i n every r e s p e c t a s , f o r example, 40 two apartment u n i t s might be. One u n i t i s owner-occupied w h i l e the o t h e r i s r e n t e d . I n the r e n t a l u n i t , the t e n a n t pays a p r e d e t e r m i n e d amount t o the owner as payment f o r the consump-t i o n of s e r v i c e s a r i s i n g from t h e use o f the u n i t . I n the owned u n i t , the owner consumes the same l e v e l o f s e r v i c e s but pays no r e n t . The owner of the r e n t a l u n i t i s r e q u i r e d t o i n c l u d e the net income a r i s i n g from t h a t r e n t a l u n i t i n p e r -s o n a l income a-nd as such pay t a x e s on I t a c c o r d i n g t o h i s mar-g i n a l t a x r a t e . The owner of an i d e n t i c a l a s s e t o f which he i s a l s o consumer i s exempted from p a y i n g a t a x on the income t h a t he would have r e c e i v e d had he l e a s e d t h e u n i t t o another household (imputed net income). C l e a r l y t h i s i s a case of p r e f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t o f home-ownership. A r e c e n t study has attempted t o q u a n t i f y t h e e x t e n t of the s u b s i d y t o home-owners r e s u l t i n g from t h e n o n - t a x a t i o n of imputed r e n t a l income'. 1 , 9 Imputed g r o s s r e n t a l income was e s t i m a t e d t o be 1 0 . 3 p e r , c e n t o f p r o p e r t y v a l u e . U s i n g the a s -sumption t h a t an average.home-owner was i n the 28 .66 per cent t a x b r a c k e t -then average s u b s i d y : t o v h o m e r O w n e r s ^ w a : s e s t i - ; ; -mated t o be 1 6 . 7 per cent of imputed g r o s s r e n t a l income. The magnitude of the s u b s i d y v a r i e s d i r e c t l y w i t h Income due t o the p r o g r e s s i v e n a t u r e o f the income t a x system-. Thus, th e n o n - t a x a t i o n o f imputed r e n t a l income b e n e f i t s home-owners over r e n t e r s . a n d h i g h e r income home-owners over lower income home-owners. The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e i l l u s t r a t e s how the e f f e c -t i v e s u b s i d y v a r i e s w i t h income. 41 T a b l e 2.7 Tax Subsidy t o Home-Ownership as Per Cent R e d u c t i o n i n Imputed Gross R e n t a l Income M a r g i n a l Tax Rate {%) Per Cent R e d u c t i o n (%) 0 N i l 14.8 8.6 20.0 11.7 30.9 18.0 41.2 24.0 51.5 30.0 61.8 36.0 72.1 '42.0 Source: F.A. C l a y t o n , "Income Taxes and S u b s i d i e s t o Home-owners and R e n t e r s : A Comparison o f U.S. and Canadian E x p e r i e n c e " , Canadian Tax J o u r n a l , V o l . 22j No. 3 (May-June 1974), page 302. 2.3.2 C a p i t a l Gains A second i n d i r e c t s u b s i d y a c c r u e s t o home-owners.. as a consequence o f 1971 amendments t o the Income Tax A c t . As a r e s u l t o f the changes, l a n d l o r d s a re now r e q u i r e d t o pay t a x e s on any c a p i t a l g a i n s r e a l i z e d at the time of the s a l e . Home-owners, however, a re exempted from the t a x i f the house or u n i t has s e r v e d as h i s p r i n c i p a l r e s i d e n c e f o r t h e i e n t i r e p e r i o d d u r i n g owhicfh he.eb.as owned -theT h o u s e o t i T h e la'ndlord i s t h e r e f o r e t a x e d on two acco u n t s whereas t h e home-owner's im-puted net income and h i s p r o f i t s r e a l i z e d a t th e time of s a l e o f the house escape t a x t r e a t m e n t a l t o g e t h e r . 2.3.3. R e g i s t e r e d Home-Ownership Savings P l a n (RHOSP) In 1974, t h e f e d e r a l government implemented a scheme whereby a non-home-owner c o u l d d e p o s i t up t o $1,000 a year t o 42 a maximum of $10,000 i n a s a v i n g s p l a n . The d e p o s i t e d money-would be d e d u c t i b l e from t a x a b l e income i n the year i n which i t was d e p o s i t e d and i f spent on the purchase o f a house or f u r n i s h i n g s f o r a new house would remain u n t a x e d . I n the case t h a t the money was withdrawn f o r o t h e r p u r p o s e s , t a x on t h a t amount would be pa y a b l e i n the year i n which i t was withdrawn. To the e x t e n t t h a t the programme exempts r e n t e r s and not home-owners from t a x on a maximum o f $10,000, i t reduces the d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o f the t a x system a g a i n s t r e n t e r s . However, to the e x t e n t t h a t r e n t e r s can o n l y b e n e f i t from the programme by becoming home-owners, i t d i s c r i m i n a t e s a g a i n s t t h a t p o r t i o n of the r e n t a l s e c t i o n which i s not p r e p a r e d t o become home-owners . RevenueOCanada s t a t i s t i c s f o r the 1974 t a x a t i o n y e a r show t h a t t h e r e were 210,877 income t a x r e t u r n s (1 .8 per cent of a l l r e t u r n s ) c l a i m i n g d e d u c t i o n s f o r RHOSP c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t a l l i n g $199,946,000 and a v e r a g i n g $948 per r e t u r n . R e g i s -t r a t i o n ' s t a t i s t i c s from Revenue Canada show t h a t 231,435 • RHOSP's were c r e a t e d i n the 1974 p e r i o d ( t o A p r i l 1 , 1975) and an a d d i t i o n a l 223,929 p l a n s were s t a r t e d i n the 1975 p e r -i o d ( t o March 1, 1976). There are no d o l l a r f i g u r e s a v a i l a b l e on t h i s b a s i s nor i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g the number of p l a n s which have been d i s c o n t i n u e d o r a p p l i e d t o house p u r c h a s e s . 2 0 -4 i rbv Z T - 1 , ^  . V o l v e •ipnt i n i-^uoxng - The R r i t i r ,. rn . " . ) i"matlL. md s sue -a i n a ><-" r 0 1 0 f'^ oi.. /Inik ne .' 1 , • f - ^ i n i j i ^ i , I D , i y 7 ^ 1 ^ (: n ^ . . ^ - o u v i i t ; ^ ' 1 s uran t ThP h ^ a s a • lir " -~. '°rijhi. > • * " -43 2.4 P r o v i n c i a l Involvement i n Housing - The B r i t i s h Columbia  Scene 2.4.1 B.C. Home-Owner's Grant The b i a s towards home-ownership does not r e s t u n i q u e l y at the f e d e r a l l e v e l . S i n c e 1957, t h e P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia has p r o v i d e d home-owners w i t h an annual g r a n t i n the form o f p r o p e r t y t a x r e b a t e s . O r i g i n a l l y o n l y i n d i v i d u a l owners o f s i n g l e o r duplex d w e l l i n g s were e l i g i b l e f o r t h e a s s i s t a n c e , but today t h e g r a n t a p p l i e s t o any p a r c e l of p r o -p e r t y where the owner i s a l s o r e s i d e n t . The s i z e o f the g r a n t has grown from $28 i n 1957 2 1 t o $28Qnin9l976. Iftfcherhome-owraer was the p r i n c i p a l s u p p o r t e r of the household and over the age of 65, t h a t p e r s o n would r e c e i v e an a d d i t i o n a l $50. Compared w i t h the meagre $30 g r a n t e d a n n u a l l y u n t i l 1975 t o B.C. r e n t e r s , t h e home-owner's g r a n t appears generous. I n 1975, t h e . r e n t e r ' s g r a n t was d i s c o n t i n u e d and a system of r e b a t e based on t o t a l a n n u a l r e n t and t a x a b l e income was i n c o r -p o r a t e d i n t o the annual income t a x payment s c h e d u l e . An upper l i m i t o f $100 a p p l i e d t o the r e b a t e , r e n d e r s t h e s i z e of the a s s i s t a n c e s m a l l e r t h a n the a s s i s t a n c e a v a i l a b l e t o home-owners . 2.4.2 P r o v i n c i a l Home A c q u i s i t i o n A ct A second programme of a s s i s t a n c e reduces the downpay-ment r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r home purchases i n B r i t i s h Columbia t h e r e b y b r i n g i n g ..jhe-me^ownerLship ow.i tin i n et He nf inanc.ial-:reach of)rmoiieuh^useholds. On A p r i l 1, 1966 the P r o v i n c i a l Home A c q u i s i t i o n P r o -gramme was i n t r o d u c e d . Grants of $500 were t o be g i v e n t o any-one b u y i n g a house who had been r e s i d e n t of the p r o v i n c e f o r 44 a t l e a s t one y e a r . The g r a n t was I n c r e a s e d by $25 t h e f o l l o w -i n g y e a r , but was d i s c o n t i n u e d i n 1968. I n s t e a d , a $1,000 g r a n t was t o be g i v e n t o p u r c h a s e r s o f new houses t o " s t i m u -l a t e new c o n s t r u c t i o n w i t h i n t h e p r o v i n c e and g e n e r a l l y improve the h o u s i n g s t o c k " . Then i n 1969 a second mortgage programme was i n t r o d u c e d . Buyers of new houses c o u l d borrow $5,000 i n l i e u of the $1,000 g r a n t t o reduce the downpayment on t h e i r p u r c h a s e . I n 1970, a l o a n of $2,500 was made a v a i l a b l e t o buyers o f e x i s t i n g homes. Today, t h e programme i n c l u d e s a $1,000 g r a n t or a $5,000 second mortgage f o r the purchase o f a new home and a $500 g r a n t or a $2,500 second mortgage l o a n f o r the purchase o f an e x i s t i n g home. A p p l i c a n t s f o r a s s i s t a n c t o new homes must now have been r e s i d e n t i n B.C. f o r a t l e a s t two y e a r s w h i l e a s s i s t a n c e f o r the purchase of e x i s t i n g ^ h o m e s i s o n l y a v a i l a b l e t o thos e who have been t e n a n t s f o r a t l e a s t two y e a r s . I f repayment of the l o a n has been made a c c o r d i n g t o s c h e d u l e , a r e f u n d o f 10 per cent of t o t a l repayments f o r the year i s p r e s e n t e d t o the home-owner. The d i m e n s i o n s f o r the programme a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Table 2.8. On November 30, 1976 the l o a n and g r a n t were d i s c o n t i n u e d and ax$5,000 l o a n a t mar-ket i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r new homes was i n t r o d u c e d . 2.4.3 P r o v i n c i a l Rent C o n t r o l Rent c o n t r o l has i n c e r t a i n w e s t e r n c o u n t r i e s c o n s t i -t u t e d , maybe, the worst example of poor p l a n n i n g by governments l a c k i n g courage and v i s i o n . 2 2 A l t h o u g h r e n t c o n t r o l s a re implemented w i t h good i n t e n -t i o n s t o p r o t e c t r e n t e r s , t h e u l t i m a t e e f f e c t s of the c o n t r o l s a r e t o the d i s a d v a n t a g e o f the r e n t a l s e c t o r o f the h o u s i n g m a r k e t . 2 3 I n the s h o r t r u n , t e n a n t s appear t o p r o f i t sis t h e i r Table 2.8 B.C. P r o v i n c i a l Home A c q u i s i t i o n Programme, 1967-75 G R A N T S M'.'.O R T G A G E S FISCAL $500 $1000 $2500 $5000 YEAR* # $(.T000) # $('000) ti $( '000) # $( '000) 1967-68 26,036 $12,190.7 $ $ $ 1968-69 11,179 5,550.6 3,353 2,684 .2 1969-70 1,392 745.3 5,945 4,518.3 2,589 12,526 .8 1970-71 3,465 443.2 3,724 3,172.4 3,105 7,716 . 2 4,525 22,305 .8 1971-72 5,749 540.9. 5,679. 5,Q19_,8 6,137 15,158,5 5,966 29,409 .6 1972-73 6,206 525.8 6,139 5,613.0 6,796 16,9JL4.7 5,851 28,454,8 1973-74 6,639 246 . 9 7,253 6,690.0 7,538 18,673-9 6,153 29,886.0 1974-75 5,959 11.4.8 8,465 . 8,012.0 . 6,957 ; . 17,220.4 7,578 37,331.2 TOTAL 66,625 $20,358.2 40 ,558 $35,709,7 30,533 "i $75,683,7 32,662 $159.,9_14,2 * A p r i l 1 - March 31 Source: Department o f Housing, Government o f B r i t i s h Columbia. 46 r e n t a l payments a r e p r o t e c t e d from r i s i n g above a c e r t a i n l e v e l or f a s t e r t h a n a p r e s c r i b e d r a t e . However, the con-t r o l s which are a p p l i e d t o r e n t s s e r v e a l s o as a c o n t r o l t o the l a n d l o r d ' s income. I n o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n h i s net income, the l a n d l o r d may attempt t o reduce o p e r a t i n g c o s t s by r e d u c -i n g the f r e q u e n c y or maintenance of c o n t r o l l e d u n i t s . Thus the q u a l i t y o f c o n t r o l l e d u n i t s f a l l s . Other l a n d l o r d s may attempt t o c o n v e r t r e n t a l u n i t s t o ownership u n i t s . New b u i l d i n g s w i l l be c o n c e n t r a t e d i n n o n - c o n t r o l l e d s e c t o r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n owned u n i t s where the r e t u r n on i n v e s t m e n t i s not c o n s t r a i n e d by r e n t a l c o n t r o l s . The net r e s u l t s w i t h i n the r e n t a l s e c t o r w i l l t h e r e f o r e be a d e t e r i o r a t i n g and s t a g -nant s t o c k of r e n t a l u n i t s . Those i n d i v i d u a l s who c u r r e n t l y r e n t w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o s a c r i f i c e t h e i r p r o t e c t e d r e n t and t o make the s e a r c h f o r another u n i t i n a low vacancy r e n t a l market. Thus, m o b i l i t y w i t h i n t h e r e n t a l s e c t o r w i l l be low and new households may have d i f f i c u l t y i n f i n d i n g r e n t a l accom-modation. Rent c o n t r o l s were f i r s t i n t r o d u c e d i n Canada as p a r t of the economic c o n t r o l s e x e r c i s e d by the f e d e r a l government d u r i n g the Second World War (War Time Measures). I n B r i t i s h Columbia t h e s e were c o n t i n u e d . u n t i l 1954 when the a u t h o r i t y t o m a i n t a i n , amend, or revoke l e a s e h o l d r e g u l a t i o n s was g r a n t e d t o the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . I t was i n 1974 t h a t the c u r r e n t s t r u c t u r e of r e n t c o n t r o l s was f i r s t i n t r o d u c e d t o B r i t i s h Columbia. The R e s i d e n t i a l P remises I n t e r i m Rent S t a b i l i z a t i o n Act l i m i t e d 47 r e n t a l i n c r e a s e s t o 8 per cent per annum on a l l r e s i d e n t i a l p r e m i s e s e x c e p t i n g t h o s e a t t a c h e d t o a premise o c c u p i e d f o r b u s i n e s s purposes and under a s i n g l e l e a s e . I n response t o t h e new l e g i s l a t i o n s t e p s were u n d e r t a k e n t o t r a n s f e r r e n t a l u n i t s t o t h e owner-occupied s e c t o r : c o n v e r s i o n t o condominiums ( s t r a t a u n i t s ) and the use of l o n g - t e r m (99 y e a r ) p r e p a i d l e a s e s became p o p u l a r . However, t h e s e p r a c t i c e s were e s s e n -t i a l l y h a l t e d when the p r o v i n c i a l government g r a n t e d m u n i c i -p a l i t i e s - c o n t r o l over c o n v e r s i o n of r e n t a l u n i t s t o condomin-iums and s u b s e q u e n t l y over l o n g - t e r m l e a s e s and c o o p e r a t i v e s . Amendments t o the L a n d l o r d and Tenant Act l a t e r I n 1974 i n c r e a s e d t h e r e n t a l l i m i t f o r 1975 t o 10.6 per cent and i n 1976 the l i m i t was reduced t o 10 per c e n t . R e s i d e n t i a l premises i n v o l v i n g o n l y two u n i t s , one o f which i s o c c u p i e d by t h e l a n d l o r d o r p r e m i s e s r e n t i n g f o r more th a n $500 per month are e x c l u d e d from the r e n t c o n t r o l l e g i s l a t i o n . U n i t s c o n s t r u c t e d a f t e r J a n uary 1, 1974 are exempted from c o n t r o l s f o r a p e r i o d of f i v e y e a r s . 2.5 M u n i c i p a l Involvement i n Housing A l t h o u g h the l o c a l l e v e l s o f government a r e d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d w i t h h o u s i n g t h r o u g h t h e p r o c e s s e s of p r o p e r t y t a x a -t i o n and z o n i n g , t h e r e are no programmes or p o l i c i e s at t h i s l e v e l which b l u n t l y f a v o u r one type of h o u s i n g over a n o t h e r . The f o r c e s at the m u n i c i p a l l e v e l seem to be more c l o s e l y . a s -s o c i a t e d w i t h the d e s i r e s of the r e s i d e n t s . M u n i c i p a l p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t i e s have found i t d i f f i c u l t t o i g n o r e r e c e n t " : c i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n to h i g h d e n s i t y h o u s i n g which seems t o c a r r y w i t h 48 i t c o n n o t a t i o n s o f u g l i n e s s and badness. Indeed, the r e c e n t o n s l a u g h t of c e n t r a l c i t y downzonings i n d i c a t e s t h a t c i t i z e n v o i c e s _ arg.,,being .heard . Vancouver and ..Toronto have b o t h e x p e r i e n c e d do.w.nzonings o f t h e i r downtown a r e a s i n r e c e n t y e a r s . Thus, w h i l e l o c a l governments have not a c t i v e l y demon-s t r a t e d a b i a s t o e i t h e r home-ownership or r e n t a l u n i t s , c i t y p l a n n i n g and c i t i z e n demands a r e making l a r g e - s c a l e , m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g development i n c r e a s i n g l y more d i f f i c u l t and l e s s e c o n o m i c a l l y v i a b l e . F o r i f a d e v e l o p e r cannot c r e a t e an ade-quate number of u n i t s t o g e n e r a t e an a c c e p t a b l e . r a t e of r e t u r n on h i s i n v e s t m e n t as a r e s u l t o f f l o o r s p a c e r a t i o c o n s t r a i n t s , he s i m p l y w i l l not b u i l d . 2.6 C o n c l u s i o n s The h i s t o r y of government i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g d i s -p l a y s a marked t r e n d of encouragement f o r home-ownership. The l a r g e - s c a l e NHA - i n s u r e d l e n d i n g programme which o r i g i n a l l y made home-owning more a c c e s s i b l e t o more Canadians has s i n c e been i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programme t h e r e b y r e d u c i n g t h e market-determined NHA r a t e t o below mar-ket l e v e l s f o r home-buyers. F e d e r a l income t a x r e g u l a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g r e n t a l income and c a p i t a l g a i n s on r e n t a l p remises e x h i b i t p r e f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t of home-owners. At t h e p r o v i n -c i a l l e v e l , home-owner's g r a n t s and home a c q u i s i t i o n g r a n t s and mortgages add to t h e f i n a n c i a l support o f f e r e d t o home-owners. New r e n t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n s p i t e of CMHC a s s i s t a n c e i s d e t e r r e d from c e n t r a l c i t y l o c a t i o n s because o f CMHC con-49 s t r a i n t s on r e n t a l s and h i g h l a n d c o s t s . Other r e n t a l c o n s t r u c -t i o n i s d i s c o u r a g e d by p r o v i n c i a l r e n t c o n t r o l s w h i l e l a r g e -s c a l e m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g developments a r e v i r t u a l l y p r o h i b i t e d by c i t i z e n groups and c i t y p l a n n i n g o f f i c i a l s . . Thus, even a-, p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e toward m u l t i p l e and r e n t a l d w e l l i n g d e v e l o p -ment a t t h e f e d e r a l l e v e l would become l o s t amid the n e g a t i v e i n f l u e n c e s a t p r o v i n c i a l and m u n i c i p a l l e v e l s . The c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t can be drawn f o r the f u t u r e hous^-i n g s t o c k based on the c u r r e n t s t a t e of a f f a i r s a r e d i s c o u r a g -i n g . U n l e s s r e n t c o n t r o l s and t h e n e g a t i v e f e d e r a l t a x t r e a t -ment of r e n t a l p r o p e r t i e s a re d i s c o n t i n u e d i n v e s t o r s w i l l -c o n t i n u e t o b u i l d f o r the home-ownership s e c t o r . And u n l e s s l o c a l groups become more t o l e r a n t of h i g h d e n s i t y developments s m a l l e r , m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g u n i t s whether r e n t a l or ownership, w i l l be p r e v e n t e d from l o c a t i n g i n c e n t r a l - c i t y a r e a s . The i m p l i c a t i o n of the aggregate of t h e s e government h o u s i n g a t t i -t udes i s t h a t net a d d i t i o n s t o the s t o c k of h o u s i n g can be expected t o be l a r g e l y home-ownership u n i t s l o c a t e d i n metro-p o l i t a n s uburbs. And u n l e s s Canadian idea31s undergo a g r e a t t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , a l a r g e p o r t i o n of the demand f o r ownership h o u s i n g w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d or row h o u s i n g . APPENDIX AFFECTS OF AHOP ASSISTANCE FOR VARIOUS PURCHASE PRICES (dollars). Purchase Price 47,000.00 44,000.00 41,000. 00 38,000.00 35,000. 00 95% Loan 44,650.00 41,800.00 38,900. 00 36,100.00 33,250. 00 Annual Repayment & 12% - 35 years** @ 8% - 35 years Basle Assistance (Yr 1) 5,461.45 3,830.97 1,630.48 5,112.85 3,586.44 1,526.41 4,758. 3,337. 1,420. •13 74 39 4,415.64 3,097.38 1,318.26 4 ,067 . 2,852. 1,214. 04 85 19 Annual Repayment Taxes** P.I.T. 3,830.97 752.00 4,582.97 3,586.44 704.00 4,290.44 3,337. 660. 3,997. • 73 ,00 ,74 3,097.38 610.00 3,707.38 2,852. 560. 3,412. 85 ,00 • 85 Income 25% DS (4 x P . 20% DS (5 x P. ,1. .1. T.) T.) 18,331.88 22,914.52 17,161.76 21,452.20 15,990. 19,988. ,96 ,70 14,829.52 18,536.90 13,651. 17,064. ,40 ,25 P.I.T. (no grant) 1 Maximum Grant P.I.T. (with grant) 4,582.97 750.00 .4,290.44 4,290.44 750.00 3,540.44 3,997. 750. 3,247. .74 ,00 .V* 3,707.38 750.00 2,957.38 3,412. 750. 2,662. ,85 ,00 .85 Income 25% DS (4 x P, 20? DS (5 x P. .1. .1. T.) T.) 17,161.76 21,452.20 14,161.76 17,702.20 12,990. 16,238, ,64 .70 11,829.52 14,786.90 10,651. 13,314, ,40 .25 DEBT SERVICE RATIOS FOR EACH PURCHASE PRICE AT SPECIFIED INCOMES Income $20,000 22.9 21.5 20 .0 18.5 17 .1 $18,000 25.0 23.8 22 . 2 20.6 19 .0 $16,000 26.8* 25.0* 25 .0 23. 2 21 .3 $14,000 30.6* 25.3* 25 .0* 25.0* 24 .4 $12,000 35.8* 29.5* 27 .1* 25.0* • 25 .0* $10,000 42.9* 35.4* 32 .5* 29.6* 26 .6* $ 8,000 53.6* 44.3* 40 .6* 37.0* 33 .3* * These debt service r a t i o s include a grant; i n cases where debt s e r v i c e i s greater than 25.0, the maximum $750 grant has been a p p l i e d . ** Interest r a t e and tax f i g u r e s are v a r i a b l e ; these f i g u r e s are f o r i l l u s t r a t i v e purposes only. 51 FOOTNOTES 1 The p r e a m b l e t o the N a t i o n a l Housing A c t , R.S.C., 1970, N-10. 2 F l o r a MacDonald, House o f Commons Debates, January 27, 1975. 3 O r d e r - i n - C o u n c i l PC 46l6, September 11, 1940. " A l b e r t Rose, "Housing P o l i c y i n Canada 1940-1968", i n The R i g h t t o Housing (ed. M. Wh e e l e r ) , ( M o n t r e a l , H a r v e s t House, 1969), p.. 76. 5 C i t e d f r o m A. Rose, op. c i t . , p. 77. 6 A l b e r t Rose, op . c i t . , p. 85. 7 N o v a - S c o t i a h a d , however, e s t a b l i s h e d a h o u s i n g c o m m i s s i o n . _ . ; E s t a b l i s h e d under the N a t i o n a l Housing A c t , R.S.C. N-10, c . 9 . 9L.B. S m i t h , Housing i n Canada,(Ottawa, CMHC, 1 9 7 2 ) , P.77. 1 0CMHC, Annual Report 1975, (Ottawa, 1975). " 1 1 I b i d . , Housing i n Canada 1946-1970, (Ottawa, 1970) , . P. 19. 1 2 l b i d . . Annual Report 1975, (Ottawa, 1975), p. 20. 1 3 A l b e r t Rose, op . c i t . , 87. 1^CMHC,;Annual R e p o r t 1975, (Ottawa, 1975), p . ^ 2 2 . 1 5CMHC, Annual Report 1974, (Ottawa, 1974), p. 21. . 1 6 C M H C A n n u a l Report 1975, (Ottawa, 1975), p. 30. 1 7 l b i d . , p. 19. 1 8 I b i d . , p. 19. 1 9 F . A . C l a y t o n , "Income Taxes and S u b s i d i e s t o Home-Owners and R e n t e r s : A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian E x p e r i -ence", Canadian Tax J o u r n a l , V o l . 2 2 , No.3 ( M a y - J u n e , 1974), p. 295. 52 F o o t n o t e s ( c o n t i n u e d ) 2 " F i n a n c i a l ' P o s t , p e r s o n a l c o r r e s p o n d e n c e , A u g u s t 16, 1976. 2 1 F a c u l t y o f C o m m e r c e a n d B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U . B . C . , R e a l E s t a t e . F i n a n c e ( c o u r s e n o t e s ) , ( V a n c o u v e r , U n i v e r s i t y - o f . - B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 7 2 ) , . p . 118. 2 2 G u n n a r M y r d a l , q u o t e d i n S . W . H a m i l t o n a n d D . B a x t e r , L a n d l o r d s a n d T e n a n t s i n D a n g e r - R e n t C o n t r o l i n C a n a d a , C W i n n i p e g , A p p r a i s a l I n s t i t u t e o f C a n a d a , 1975J, p " . 2 ^ F o r a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f r e n t c o n t r o l , s e e S . W . H a m i l t o n a n d D . B a x t e r , o p . c i t . •Chapter 3 THE CANADIAN HOUSING STOCK Housing i s a p h y s i c a l commodity w h i c h , l i k e most o t h e r goods i s t r a d e d i n a market. I t s major f u n c t i o n i s the p r o v i -s i o n o f s h e l t e r . However, h o u s i n g a l s o p r o v i d e s a mix of phy-s i c a l , s o c i a l and economic s e r v i c e . s , o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o as the f l o w o f s e r v i c e s . The e x t e n t o f the s e r v i c e s a r i s i n g from each d w e l l i n g u n i t i s a f u n c t i o n of c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as s t r u c -t u r a l t y p e , s i z e , t e n u r e and l o c a t i o n . The e v a l u a t i o n of the s u i t a b i l i t y o f the h o u s i n g s t o c k f o r a p o p u l a t i o n depends not m e r e l y on a b s o l u t e numbers of d w e l l i n g u n i t s b u t , more i m p o r t -a n t , on numbers of the v a r i o u s t y p e s of d w e l l i n g u n i t s which p r o v i d e d i f f e r e n t mixes of s e r v i c e s . Thus, the major c o n c e r n o f t h i s paper i s not whether the p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be housed but r a t h e r how the p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be housed. The p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r d i s c u s s e d government p o l i c i e s which a f f e c t the f l o w o f h o u s i n g u n i t s ( a d d i t i o n s t o the h o u s i n g s t o c k ) . The p r e s e n t c h a p t e r l o o k s a t the e f f e c t s of t h e s e p o l i c i e s by examining the s t o c k which has r e s u l t e d from p a s t f l o w s . Chap-t e r H w i l l t hen a n a l y z e the p o p u l a t i o n s which have used the h o u s i n g s t o c k and Chapter 5 w i l l p r o j e c t the s i z e and composi-t i o n o f the household s t o c k which w i l l use the h o u s i n g s t o c k formed by f u t u r e a d d i t i o n s t o the e x i s t i n g s t o c k o f h o u s i n g . B e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g w i t h t h e a n a l y s i s o f the h o u s i n g s t o c k , a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f the n a t u r e o f the commodity, housi-: ing, 1:would --under 1'lne the importance of t h e c u r r e n t housing;-, stock-. 3 .1 The Commodity, Housing Housing i n Canada i s b u i l t t o have a l o n g l i f e t i m e , . 53 54 The h o u s i n g s t o c k i s comprised of d w e l l i n g u n i t s which range i n age from new t o almost 200 y e a r s . The d u r a b i l i t y o f hous-i n g has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the f u t u r e h o u s i n g 'Stock. It' means t h a t many h o u s i n g u n i t s t h a t e x i s t today and tho s e which are b u i l t i n the next decade w i l l p r o b a b l y c o n t i n u e t o be of s e r v i c e i n the next c e n t u r y . Thus, the q u a n t i t y , as w e l l as t h e t y p e , s i z e and l o c a t i o n o f the s e u n i t s w i l l be c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c of b o t h t o d a y ' s h o u s i n g s t o c k as w e l l as o f the h o u s i n g s t o c k o f , say, 2001. The d e c i s i o n s we make c o n c e r n i n g the h o u s i n g s t o c k today a re t h e r e f o r e d e c i s i o n s - i f o r tomorrow as -w e l l . S e c o n d l y , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of m o b i l e homes, h o u s i n g i s an immobile commodity. T o g e t h e r , the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f i m m o b i l i t y and d u r a b i l i t y i m p l y t h a t t h e l o c a t i o n a l p a t t e r n of the h o u s i n g s t o c k can o n l y be m o d i f i e d by new a d d i t i o n s t o t h e s t o c k o f h o u s i n g . W i t h d r a w a l s from t h e s t o c k due to d e s t r u c -t i o n or d e t e r i o r a t i o n a re r e l a t i v e l y few i n Canada. A t h i r d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of h o u s i n g i s t h e h i g h p r i c e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t s consumption. Whether an i n d i v i d u a l r e n t s or owns a d w e l l i n g u n i t , the monthly payments which a re neces-s a r y f o r t h e r i g h t t o consume the h o u s i n g comprise a l a r g e p o r t i o n o f the household's income. 3.2 The S t o c k of Housing i n Canada The t o t a l s t o c k of h o u s i n g r e p r e s e n t s t h e number of h o u s i n g u n i t s s t a n d i n g at any p o i n t i n t i m e . There a r e two major s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g the h o u s i n g s t o c k : the Census o f Canada, t a k e n every f i v e y e a r s ( y e a r s ending w i t h 55 "1" and "6") , r e p o r t s t y p e and t e n u r e o f h o u s i n g u n i t s w h i l e every t e n y e a r s ( y e a r s ending w i t h "1") a more comprehensive survey i s i n c l u d e d i n the Census; the C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n p r o v i d e s a source of monthly and annual d a t a on a d d i t i o n s t o the s t o c k of h o u s i n g . I n 1971, t h e o c c u p i e d s t o c k of ho u s i n g i n Canada s t o o d a t 6,030,805 d w e l l i n g u n i t s ( T a ble 3 - D . T h i s r e p r e s e n t s an i n c r e a s e of 16.4 per cent over the f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d 1966-1971 and a 32.4 per cent i n c r e a s e from 196l . Vacant d w e l l i n g s have accounted f o r somewhere between 4 and 5 per cent o f the t o t a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s d u r i n g t h e s e y e a r s . T a b l e 3.1 Housing S t o c k , Occupied and Vacant D w e l l i n g s , 1951, 1961, 1966, 1971 " T o t a l D w e l l i n g U n i t s Occupied U n i t s 1 * Vacant U n i t s 1951 N/A 3,409,295 % N/A % 19611 4,744,472 4,554,493 96. 0 189,9791 4 .0 19662 5,402,540 5,180,473 95. 9 222,067 2 4 .1 1971 6,320,999 6,030,805** 95. 4 290,185 3 4 .6 Note: These f i g u r e s do not i n c l u d e c o l l e c t i v e d w e l l i n g s nor d w e l l i n g s under c o n s t r u c t i o n . Vacant u n i t f i g u r e s a r e c o l l e c t e d d u r i n g t h e V i s i t a t i o n Record census c o u n t . U n i t s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d as vaca n t t h r o u g h d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h l a n d l o r d s and n e i g h b o u r s . Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census o f Canada 196l , c a t . n o . 93-535, T a b l e 3. 2 I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1966, I n t r o d u c t o r y R e p o r t , T a b l e 3. 3 I b i d . , D a i l y B u l l e t i n , A p r i l 13, 1973, cat.vno . 11-001. ^ S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1971, c a t . n o . 93-739, T a b l e 35. 56 3.2.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the Housing Stock The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of h o u s i n g u n i t s d e t e r m i n e t o a l a r g e e x t e n t the f l o w of s e r v i c e s which may be r e a l i z e d from any u n i t . The" type and s i z e of the d w e l l i n g , as w e l l as any a m e n i t i e s o r e x t e r n a l i t i e s - w h i c h may be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t , w i l l d e t e r m i n e the e x t e n t t.o.w.hlch fche_no.rmal fun-c't;ions o f e a t i n g , s l e e p i n g and so on w i l l be expanded, t o ' i n c l u d e e n t e r t a i n i n g , b u s i n e s s , r e c r e a t i o n and such. The quan.tificat.-i.on of the f l o w of s e r v i c e s o f any one hou s i n g u n i t i s not an easy t a s k and i s l a r g e l y a f u n c t i o n of how each household uses i t s d w e l l i n g . However, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as t y p e , age, s i z e and l o c a t i o n do g i v e some i n d i c a t i o n as t o the c a p a c i t y and q u a l i t y of the u n i t and thus the type of h o u sehold which might be s u i t e d t o t h a t u n i t . 3.2.1 .1 S t r u c t u r a l Type Almost 60 per cent of the 1971 h o u s i n g s t o c k con-s i s t e d o f s i n g l e detached u n i t s w h i l e 28 per cent were a p a r t -ments and 11 per cent were s i n g l e a t t a c h e d . 1 The p r o p o r t i o n of s i n g l e detached houses has d e c r e a s e d s i n c e 1961 by about 6 per cent w h i l e the s t o c k of s i n g l e a t t a c h e d and apartment d w e l l i n g s have each r i s e n 3 per cent (Table 3 .2) . 3 .2.1.2 S i z e o f D w e l l i n g U n i t s The, average s i z e o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s , i n Canada has i n -creased s l i g h t l y s i n c e 1951, f-rom 5.3 t o 5.4 rooms.. W h i l e the number~6f bedro'oms has remained " c o n s t a n t a t 2.7, household s i z e d e c r e a s e d from 4.0 t o 3 .3 cbe.tween~-L9i5-3l.r:and cl971 • TH-e-prjoportion of u n i t s h a v i n g l e s s t h a n 1.0 p e r s o n per room has i n c r e a s e d be-tween 1961 and 1971 from 83-5% t o 90.6% (Table 3-3). 3.2.1.3 T§Hiir§ The stock-©.:fohou..s.ing mayiaals.o b e - . c l a s s i f i e d as to Table 3.2 Housing Stock by Type of D w e l l i n g U n i t , 1951, 1961, 1966, 1971 T o t a l 5 S i n g l e Detached S i n g l e . A t t a c h e d Apartment 19511 19612 1966 3 1971" 3,4'09,i95 4,554,493 5,180,473 6,030,805 U n i t s % U n i t s i-2,275 ,615 66 .7 237,655 7 .0 2 , 978 ,501 65 .4 404 ,933 8 .9 3,234,123 62 .4 401,754 7 .8 3 , 5 8 7 , 8 3 0 59 .5 688 ,540 11 .4 U n i t s 885,565 1,151,098 1,516,419 1,690,565 % 26.0 25.3 29.3 28.3 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1951, c a t . n o . 98-1951-F, Tab l e S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census, of Canada 196l, c a t . n o . 93-523, Table 5. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1966,. c a t . n o . 93-608, T a b l e 50 ' • S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1971, c a t . n o . 93-739, T a b l e 35 5 T o t a l i n c l u d e s mobile.homes. 58 T a b l e 3-3 D w e l l i n g S i z e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 1951, 1961, 1971 1951 1961 1971 A v e r a g e N u m b e r o f R o o m s 5 • 31 5 • 3 2 5. 4" A v e r a g e N u m b e r o f B e d r o o m s 2 • 7 3 2. 7* A v e r a g e N u m b e r o f P e r s o n s / R o o m 6 4 5 P e r c e n t a g e o f U n i t s w i t h l e s s t h a n l L . , 0 P e r s o n s / R o o m 83 .5 6 90. 6 5 A v e r a g e H o u s e h o l d S i z e 4 . 0 7 3 • 9 7 3- 5 8 S o u r c e 98-1951' 2 I b i d . , - F , T a b l e : C e n s u s o f 12. C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . •> , 93-•525, T a b l e 20. 3 I b l d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 93-•525, T a b l e 25. ' • I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 93-•739, T a b l e 35. 5 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 93-•730, T a b l e 19. 6 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 93-•534,. T a b l e 108. 7 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 93- 510, T a b l e 1. 8 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 93- 703, T a b l e 36. 59 t h e i n t e r e s t s w h i c h the occupant of each h o u s i n g u n i t h o l d s i n t h a t u n i t . E s s e n t i a l l y , p r o p e r t y i n Canada i s h e l d i n e i t h e r f e e s i m p l e i n t e r e s t or as a l e a s e h o l d i n t e r e s t . The f e e s i m p l e e s t a t e i s a t ype of f r e e h o l d whereby the l a n d i s h e l d i n d e f i n i t e l y and can be t r a n s f e r r e d by s a l e or at d e a t h by w i l l or inheritance.-''' I n t h e e v e n t v o f d e a t h of the h o l d e r of f e e s i m p l e e s t a t e , the l a n d i s r e t u r n e d t o the government. A r e a l p r o p e r t y owner i s s a i d t o h o l d the f e e s i m p l e i n h i s p r o p e r t y . The l e a s e h o l d e s t a t e , on the o t h e r hand, i s an i n t e r e s t i n r e a l p r o p e r t y f o r some def ihedJ.per.i.o.d o f time.... A L e a s e h o l d agreement," whether,rexpressed i n an o f f i c i a l document ..or -merely e x i s t i n g on a month t o month b a s i s , t r a n s f e r s t h e i n t e r e s t s i n a p r o p e r t y t o t h e l e s s e e ( t e n a n t ) from the l e s s o r ( l a n d l o r d ) f o r the- •perio'd rod? the Lease. A f e e s i m p l e i n t e r e s t i n l a n d may a l s o be h e l d t h r o u g h a s t r a t a (condominium) c o r p o r a t i o n . I n d i v i d u a l households h o l d a f e e s i m p l e i n t e r e s t i n s p e c i f i e d a r e a s of the t o t a l p a r -c e l w h i l e o t h e r a r e a s are ownedeby a l l the households as t e n -a n t s i n common. Q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of the h o u s i n g s t o c k a c c o r d i n g t o t e n u r e i n d i c a t e s t h e p a t t e r n o f consumption of and i n v e s t m e n t i n hous-i n g . Whereas the s t r a t a and home-owner makes an i n v e s t m e n t i n p r o p e r t y t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t he i s p r e p a r e d t o pay t h e f u l l c a p i -t a l market v a l u e e i t h e r i m m e d i a t e l y or over a p e r i o d of t i m e , the r e n t e r pays o n l y as he consumes. Between 1951 and 1971, t h e p r o p o r t i o n of the h o u s i n g s t o c k which i s owner-occupied 60 has d e c r e a s e d from 65.6 per cent t o 60.3 per c e n t . T h i s o b s e r -v a t i o n i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e f a c t t h a t a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s a r e apartments,. and s i n g l e a t t a c h e d u n i t s , i . e . , thos e d w e l l i n g s which tend t o be r e n t a l u n i t s (Table 3 .4) . Table 3-4 Owner-Occupied D w e l l i n g U n i t s , 1951-1971 YEAR TOTAL UNITS 0 W N E D U n i t s % o f T o t a l S t o c k % I n c r e a s e Over 5 r Years. Over . . 10. Years 19511 3,^09,295 2,236,-955 65.6 _ — 19612 4,554,493 3,005,587 66.0 - 34.3 1966 3 5,180,473 3,269,970 63.1 + 8.8 . -1971" 6,030,805 3,634,595 60.3 :+11.2 32.4 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1951, c a t . n o . 98-1951-F, Tab l e 8. 2 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1961, cat.no.93-523, Table 10. 3 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1966, cat.no.93-608, Table 50. " i b i d . , Census o f Canada 1971, cat.no.93-739, T a b l e 35. I n r e c e n t y e a r s t h e r e has been a growing p o p u l a r i t y f o r b u y i n g (and s e l l i n g ) d w e l l i n g u n i t s w h i c h h e r e t o f o r e have n o r m a l l y been r e n t a l u n i t s . T h i s i s l a r g e l y a consequence of r e n t c o n t r o l s and r e c e n t condominium ownership l e g i s l a t i o n and may have the e f f e c t o f r e v e r s i n g the d e c r e a s i n g t r e n d f o r home-ownership i n f u t u r e y e a r s . The most r e c e n t census f o r which d a t a i s a v a i l a b l e (1971) d i d not i n c l u d e s t r a t a or c o l l e c t i v e ownership i n i t s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of t e n u r e . 61 3.2.1.4 L o c a t i o n T h e 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s e s I n d i c a t e t h e l o c a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k . I n t h e 1 0 - y e a r s p a n f r o m 1961 t o 1971 t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s w h i c h w e r e l o c a t e d i n u r b a n c e n t r e s i n c r e a s e d f r o m 72 t o 78.5 p e r c e n t ( T a b l e 3 .5) . T h i s i n c r e a s e w a s s h a r e d b e t w e e n c i t i e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s g r e a t e r t h a n 100,000 a n d a l s o t h o s e w i t h 10,000 t o 29,999. B o t h r u r a l f a r m a n d r u r a l n o n - f a r m e x p e r i e n c e d a d e c r e a s e i n t h e i r s h a r e o f t o t a l h o u s i n g u n i t s . S i n g l e d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g d e c r e a s e d a s a s h a r e o f t o t a l h o u s i n g , e s p e c i -a l l y i n t h e u r b a n a r e a s ( T a b l e 3 .6) . S i n g l e a t t a c h e d h o u s i n g b e c a m e a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e u r b a n s t o c k o f h o u s i n g w h i l e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a p a r t m e n t s i n c r e a s e d i n a l l l o c a t i o n s e x c e p t t h e r u r a l f a r m a r e a s . I n a l l a r e a s t h e a v e r a g e n u m b e r o f r o o m s p e r d w e l l -i n g - i n c r e a s e d ^ ^ l i g h t l j y - f o r s i n g l e ^ d e t a c h e d - d w e l l i n g s , w h i l e s i n g l e ; A , a t t a c h e d 1 £ d w e M i n g u n i t s ^ a n d - a p a r t m e n t s b e c a m e / . s m a l l e r ( T a b l e . r . - 3 . . . 7i.)ir> T h e a v e r a g e n u m b e r • o . f - b e d r . o i o m s J _ - p e r d w e l l i n g u n i t ^ r e m a i n e d u - n c h a n g e d , , a t 2 . - i 7 r P f o r • t h e z t o ' t a l s t o c k o f d w e l l -i n g u n i t s . H o w e v e r , H i % £ m o » s t c a s e s , . - t h e a v e r a g e n u m b e r - o f b e d ^ a o m s h a s d e c r ^ e a s e d s & Q P s i n g l e a t t a c h e d a n d a p a r t m e n t d w e l l i n g u n i t s w h i l e s i n g l e d e t a c h e d u n i t s h a v e r e m a i n e d t h e s a m e o r s l i g h t l y i n c r e a s e d . 3.2.1.5 O c c u p a n t s ' - _ -. : S i n c e t h e v a r i o u s s t r u c t u r a l t y p e s o f h o u s i n g a r e m o r e a d a p . t a b l e t o . , o n e l i f e s t y l e t h a n a n o t h e r , a n d s i n c e l i f e s t y l e s o u s u a l l y c h a n g e w i t h a g e g r o u p s , i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o l o o k a t t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k w i t h r e g a r d t o b o t h a g e a n d s t r u c t u r a l t y p e . 62 Table 3.5 L o c a t i o n a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the Housing S t o c k , 1 9 6 1 , 1971 C A N A D A 19611 19712 % % TOTAL 100.0 • 100.0 Urban 7 2 . 0 7 8 . 5 500,000 + ) 4518 34 .3 100 , 000-499 ,999 - • 16 .3 3 0 , 0 0 0 - 9 9 , 9 9 9 9.4 8 .8 10 , 000 -29 ,999 5 .7 7 .8 5 , 0 0 0 - 9 , 9 9 9 3 .2 3 .7 under 5 ,000 7 .7 7 .3 R u r a l Non-Farm 27 .9 21.4 Farm 9.8 5.4 Note: J 1 9 6 l d a t a i s based on 20 per cent sample of the t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k . 2 1 9 7 1 d a t a i s 100 per cent of the t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k . Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1 9 6 1 , c a t . n o . 9 3 - 5 2 4 , Table 20 . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census o f Canada 1 9 7 1 , c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 2 8 , Table 9 . 63 T a b l e 3.6 P e r c e n t a g e o f D w e l l i n g s b y S t r u c t u r a l ; T y p e a n d . b y L o c a t i o n , 1961, 1971 ' ' S I N G L E A T T A C H E D 19611 1971 2 ' S I N G L E D E T A C H E D 1961 1971 A P A R T M E N T 1961 1971 C a n a d a / U r b a n R u r a l N o n - F a r m F a r m 65.5. 59,4 55.8 51.4 . ' 89.9 89.P 87.1 86.6 95.1 96.1 8.8 11.4 10.1 13.3 5.7 .4.3 6.9-. 5.1 3.4 2.1 25-2 : 28.0 33 .7 34.6 3.3 3.6 4.4 4.6 1.2 0.7 N o t e : 1961 d a t a i s b a s e d o n a s a m p l e o f 20 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k . ^ 1971 d a t a I s b a s e d o n a 33 /3 p e r c e n t s a m p l e . S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 93-529, T a b l e 76. S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 93-738, T a b l e 27. 64 Table 3-7 Average Number of Rooms and Bedrooms per D w e l l i n g U n i t , by L o c a t i o n , 1961, 1971 ' AVERAGE;-.NO. OF ROOMS 19611 19712 AVERAGE•NO. OF BEDROOMS 19611 19712 Canada 5.3 5.4 2.7 2.7 S i n g l e Detached 5.8 6.1 3.0 3.1 S i n g l e A t t a c h e d 5.5 5.4 2.8 2.7 Apartment 4.2 4.1 1.9 1.8 R u r a l - Farm 6.4 6.5 3.6 3.5 S i n g l e Detached 6.4 6.5 3.5 3.5 S i n g l e A t t a c h e d 6.8 6.5 3.7 3.5 Apartment 6.7 5.6 3.8 2.8 R u r a l - Non-Farm 5.3 5.5 2.8 2.9 S i n g l e Detached 5.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 S i n g l e A t t a c h e d 5.4 5.3 2.9 2.8 Apartment 5.0 4.7 2.6 2.2 Urban 5.2 5.4 2.5 2.6 S i n g l e Detached 5.7 6.2 2.9 3.1 S i n g l e A t t a c h e d 5.5 5.4 2.7 2.7 Apartment 4.2 4.1 1.9 1.8 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1961, c a t .no . 93-529, T a b l e 76. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1971, cat.no. 93-738, T a b l e 27. 65 C e n s u s d a t a c r o s s - t a b u l a t e s t h e s e t w o v a r i a b l e s , u s i n g t h e a g e o f t h e h e a d o f t h e h o u s e h o l d . T h u s , t h i s a g e m u s t b e t a k e n t o b e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e a g e a n d l i f e s t y l e o f t h a t h o u s e -h o l d . A l t h o u g h c e n s u s d a t a d i s a g g r e g a t e s t h e p o p u l a t i o n b y f i v e - y e a r a g e g r o u p s , i t w a s f e l t t h a t t h e t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s u n d e r 25 y e a r s , 25 t o 54 y e a r s a n d o v e r 55 y e a r s w o u l d p r o v i d e a s i m p l e r p i c t u r e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . U n d e r 25 Y e a r s T h i s g r o u p w o u l d c o n s i s t c h i e f l y o f s i n g l e s a n d y o u n g m a r r i e d c o u p l e s w h o h a v e n e i t h e r t h e n e e d f o r a l a r g e s p a c i o u s d w e l l i n g n o r . - i n c o m e n o r ' s a v i n g s s u f f i c i e n t t o p e r m i t a n i n v e s t m e n t i n a d w e l l i n g . A s i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 3-8, t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h i s g r o u p a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p a r t m e n t s h a s i n -c r e a s e d t o 63 p e r c e n t i n 1971 f r o m 51 p e r c e n t i n 196l . T h e n u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d h e a d s u n d e r 25 i n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g h a s d e c r e a s e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y s i n c e 1961, f r o m 38 p e r c e n t t o 2 4 p e r c e n t . T h e s i z e o f t h e d w e l l i n g s o c c u p i e d b y t h e h o u s e -h o l d s i n t h i s a g e g r o u p h a s g r o w n f r o m a n a v e r a g e o f 3.9 t o 4.1 r o o m s b u t c o n t i n u e s t o b e s o m e w h a t s m a l l e r t h a n t h o s e o f t h e o t h e r a g e g r o u p s . H o u s e h o l d H e a d s 25-54 Y e a r s O n e w o u l d e x p e c t h o u s e h o l d s w i t h h e a d s i n t h i s a g e g r o u p t o b e g e n e r a l l y m o r e s e t t l e d . B y t h i s a g e m o s t h a v e c o m p l e t e d t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a n d m a n y o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s m a y i n -c l u d e c h i l d r e n . T h e s e c u r i t y o f a n i n c o m e a n d t h e n e e d f o r m o r e s p a c e f o r g e n e r a l l y l a r g e r h o u s e h o l d s e x p l a i n s t h e t e n -d e n c y f o r t h e s e h o u s e h o l d s t o o c c u p y o w n e d s i n g l e d e t a c h e d 66 d w e l l i n g s o f a s l i g h t l y l a r g e r - t h a n - a v e r a g e s i z e . I n 1971, o v e r 60 p e r c e n t o f t h i s g r o u p l i v e d i n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l -i n g s a n d o n l y 25 p e r c e n t i n a p a r t m e n t s ( T a b l e 3 .8) . O v e r 60 p e r c e n t o w n e d t h e i r d w e l l i n g . T h e s e p r o p o r t i o n s h a v e c h a n g e d o n l y s l i g h t l y o v e r t h e 1 0 - y e a r p e r i o d f r o m 1961 t o 1971. O v e r 55 Y e a r s I t w a s f e l t t h a t t h e a g e o f 55 w o u l d p r o p e r l y d e m a r c a t e t h a t g r o u p o f h o u s e h o l d s w h o s e f a m i l i e s h a d g r o w n u p a n d h a d l e f t t h e h o m e . • -F r o m T a b l e 3.8 i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e s e h o u s e h o l d s t e n d x-t o r e m a i n i n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g , e v e n t h o u g h h o u s e h o l d s i z e h a s d i m i n i s h e d ( s e e C h a p t e r 4) . T h e p r o p o r t i o n o f h o u s e -h o l d h e a d s a g e d o v e r 55 y e a r s h o u s e d i n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d u n i t s h a s d e c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y s i n c e 1961 f r o m 69 p e r c e n t t o a l m o s t 65 p e r c e n t , w h i l e t h e n u m b e r o f a p a r t m e n t a n d s i n g l e a t t a c h e d h o u s i n g d w e l l e r s h a s i n c r e a s e d t o 2-5.3 p e r c e n t a n d 9-5 p e r c e n t r e s p e c t i v e l y . I n 1961 t h e a v e r a g e s i z e o f t h e d w e l l i n g u n i t s o f t h i s g r o u p w a s 5.5 r o o m s c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e a v e r a g e 5.4 r o o m s p e r d w e l l i n g f o r h o u s e h o l d s w i t h h e a d s 25 t o 54 y e a r s . B y 1971, a v e r a g e d w e l l i n g s i z e h a d d r o p p e d - t :o~5 . 3 r o o m s f o r t h e o l d e r a g e g r o u p w h i l e t h e s i z e o f d w e l l i n g s " b e l o n g i n g t o h o u s e h o l d s w i t h h e a d s , a g e d 25 t o -54 y e a r s - { h a d i n c r e a s e d t o 5.6 r o o m s . 3/3 A d d i t i o n s t o t h e H o u s i n g S t o c k T h e C e n s u s o f C a n a d a p r o v i d e s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k e v e r y f i v e y e a r s . A n n u a l e s t i m a t e s o f a d d i t i o n s t o t h e t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k a r e t a l l i e d b y t h e C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s y s t e m Table 3-8 Housing Stock by Age o f Household Head, 1961, 1966, 1971 SINGLE SINGLE AVERAGE NO. AVERAGE NO. TOTAL DETACHED ATTACHED APARTMENT OWNED OP ROOMS OP BEDROOMS . . Units. . . .  . % . % % . . . . % . . 19611 4,554,493 65.4 8.9. 25.3 66.0 5.3 2.7 Under 25 Years 179,714 37.9 9.6 51,1 23.9. 3-9 -25-54 Years 2,947 ,004 65.5 9-0 25.0 63.7 5.4 -55+ Years 1,427,775 68.7 8.5 22.7 76.1 5-5 — 19662 5,180,473 62.4 7.8 29.3 63.1 — -Under 25 Years 269,065 26.8 7.5 64 .2 16.3 - -25-54 Years • 3,257,514 63.6 8.2 27.7 62.4 - -55+ Years 1,653,894 66.0 7-0 26.8 72.2 — — 1971 3 6,030,805 59.5 11.4 28.0 60.3 5,4 2.7 Under 25 Years 411,920 24 .3 10.5 62.8 14 .3 4.1 1.7 25-54 Years 3,687,350 60.8 12.5 25.6 60.5 5.6 2.8 55+ Years 1,931,535 64 .6 9-5 25.3 69.6 5.3 2.6 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census:of Canada 1 9 6I, cat.no.93-523, T a b l e 5. 2 I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1966 , c a t . no . 9.3-608, Table 50. 3 I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1971, cat.no.93-739, Table 35. 68 b y s t r u c t u r a l t y p e o f t h e n e w d w e l l i n g u n i t s d i f f e r s s l i g h t l y f r o m t h a t u s e d b y t h e c e n s u s . S e m i - d e t a c h e d a n d d u p l e x • c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s a r e a g g r e g a t e d w h i l e r o w - a n d a p a r t m e n t d w e l l -i n g s a r e ' l i s t e d s e p a r a t e l y . . . T h e c e n s u s c o m b i n e s , r o w d w e l l i n g s w i t h s e m i - d e t a c h e d u n i t s a n d d u p l e x - . u n i t s - w i t h a p a r t m e n t s . C o m p l e t i o n s f r o m 1956 t o ' 1 9 7 5 a r e l i s t e d i n T a b l e 3.9. F i g u r e 3.1 i l l u s t r a t e s a n i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d t o a p a r t m e n t c o n s t r u c t i o n d u r i n g t h e 15 y e a r p e r i o d b e t w e e n 1956 a n d 1970. S i n c e 1970, h o w e v e r , t h e r e h a s b e e n a n u p s w i n g i n t h e p r o p o r -t i o n o f s i n g l e d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g u n i t s . T h i s r e v e r s a l f r o m a p a r t m e n t t o s i n g l e d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n m a y b e a t t r i -b u t e d t o s e v e r a l c a u s e s . F i r s t l y , a s d e m o n s t r a t e d i n C h a p t e r 2, g o v e r n m e n t h o u s i n g p o l i c y h a s b e c o m e i n c r e a s i n g l y s u p p o r t i v e o f h o m e - o w n e r s h i p , w h i l e p r o f i t a b l e i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n t a l a c c o m -m o d a t i o n h a s b e c o m e c o n s i d e r a b l y m o r e d i f f i c u l t . S e c o n d l y , a s C h a p t e r 4 w i l l i l l u s t r a t e , t h e p o p u l a t i o n " b u l g e " o f p o s t -w a r b a b i e s h a s r e a c h e d t h e a g e w h e r e f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n t r a d i -t i o n a l l y o c c u r s a n d t h u s s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g b e c o m e s a p p r o p -r i a t e . 3 .4 S u m m a r y T h i s c h a p t e r h a s b e e n d e v o t e d t o q u a n t i f y i n g t h e c u r -r e n t h o u s i n g s t o c k i n t e r m s o f a b s o l u t e n u m b e r s , t e n u r e , s i z e , l o c a t i o n , o c c u p a n t s a n d t y p e s . I n d o i n g s o , i t h a s r e v e a l e d t h a t r e n t a l a c c o m m o d a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y a p a r t m e n t s , h a s b e c o m e a n i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k . H o w e v e r , s i n c e t h e l a s t c e n s u s (1971), d a t a o n h o u s i n g " c o m p l e -t i o n s r e v e a l s a r e v e r s e in - r thre t r e n d i n - f a v o u r o f s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d b u i l d i n g s . Table 3-9 D w e l l i n g Completions by Type, Canada, 1956-1975 SINGLE SEMI DETACHED APARTMENT TOTAL DETACHED & DUPLEX ROW & OTHERS YEAR U n i t s . . U n i t s . . .  . % . . U n i t s . .% • • U n i t s U n i t s . . % 1956 135,700 96,656 71. 2 11,872 8.7 2,137 1 .5 26,035 19. 1 1957 117,283 81,096 69. 1 8,464 7.2 2,350 2 . 0 25,373 21. 6 1958 146,686 96,830 66. 0 10 ,004 6 .8 2,226 1 .5 34,626 25. 6 1959 145,671 95 ,455 65. 5 10,923 7 .4 2,308 1 .5 36,985 25. 3 I960 123,757 78,113 63. 1 9,911 8.0 1,616 1 .3 .  34,117-". 27. 5 1961 115,608 76,171 65. 8 10,593 9.1 2,019 1 .7 26,825 23. 2 1962 126,682 75,593 59. 6 11,922 9.4 2,451 1 .9 36,716 28. 9 1963 128,191 71,585 55 . 8 7,150 5-5 3,487 2 .7 45,969 35. 8 1964 150,963 76,225 50. 4 8,091 5 . 3 3,861 2 .5 62,786 4 1 . 5 1965 153,037 75 ,104 49 . 0 8,730 5.7 4,097 2 .6 65,106 42 . 5 1966 162,192 73,858 45. 5 7,707 4.7 6 ,412 3 .9 74,215 45. 7 1967 149 ,242 73,631 49. 3 9,089 6.0 5,431 3 .6 61,091 40. 9 1968 170,993 74 ,640 43. 6 10,098 5 . 9 7,89.6 4 .6 78,359 45. 8 1969 195,826 78,584 40. 1 10,483 5 . 3 7,827 3 .9 98,932 50. 5 1970 175,827 66,615 37. 8 9,066 5.1 11,473 6 .5 88,673 50. 4 1971 201,232 82,978 4 1 . 2 12,518 6.2 16,795 8 .3 88 ,941 44. 1 1972 232,227 106,508 45. 8 13,184' 5 .6 14,416 6 . 2 98,119 4 2 . 2 1973 246,581 122,696 49. 7 13,479 5 .4 14,832 6 . 0 95,574 38. 7 1974 257 ,243 129,704 50. 4 12,509 4 . 8 19,225 7 .4 95,805 38. 4 1975 . 216,964 113,409 52. 2 12,303 5 .6 16,095 7 .4 75,157 34. 6 Source: CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1975, Table 9-Per Cent F i g u r e 3-1 D w e l l i n g Completions by Type ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1956-1975 ^ S i n g l e Detached 70 ^ & 60 40 30 20h 10b Apartments Semi Detached Row 1956 I960 Source: Table 3.9 1965 '1970 71 3.5 The Supply o f Housing i n 2001 The swing back to s i n g l e f a m i l y detached h o u s i n g which has o c c u r r e d s i n c e 1971 may be a good i n d i c a t i o n of what I s t o happen t o our h o u s i n g s t o c k i n the p e r i o d t o 200.1. I f the n a t u r e o f Canadian h o u s i n g p o l i c y remains unchanged, the environment f o r c e n t r a l l y l o c a t e d , h i g h e r d e n s i t y h o u s i n g w i l l r e m a i n b l e a k . As d e v e l o p e r s move t o the o u t s k i r t s o f c i t i e s i n s e a r c h o f lower l a n d p r i c e s , the s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g w i l l con-t i n u e t o be expanded a t p o i n t s d i s t a n t from the downtown. At such l o c a t i o n s the market becomes o r i e n t e d t o f a m i l y h o u s i n g and i n p a r t i c u l a r the s i n g l e f a m i l y detached form of h o u s i n g . N o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s , i t w i l l be shown i n Chapter 4, t y p i c -a l l y l o c a t e i n more c e n t r a l l y l o c a t e d a r e a s . Chapter s4'. w i l l . a n a l y z e the t o t a l demand f o r h o u s i n g a c c o r d i n g t o household t y p e , age, s i z e and so on. Chapter 5 w i l l then,.'.after examining s e v e r a l p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s and demographic f a c t o r s , p r o j e c t the demand f o r h o u s i n g . 7 2 FOOTNOTES 1 " S i n g l e a t t a c h e d " i n c l u d e s a l l d w e l l i n g u n i t s which ar e a t t a c h e d by a common w a l l e x t e n d i n g from the ground t o the r o o f (double houses, row houses, s i n g l e u n i t s a d j o i n i n g a s t o r e o r o t h e r n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r e ) . "Apartment" i n c l u d e s a l l d w e l l i n g u n i t s which a r e s i t u a t e d above or below another d w e l l i n g or n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l premise i n the same b u i l d -i n g . Chapter 4 AN ANALYSIS OF THE CANADIAN POPULATION TO 1971 P o p u l a t i o n i s n o r m a l l y u n d e r s t o o d as t h e t o t a l s t o c k o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n a g i v e n l a n d a r e a . However, by d i s a g g r e g a t -i n g p o p u l a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o household and f a m i l y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s , v a l u a b l e i n s i g h t i n t o the demand f o r h o u s i n g can be o b t a i n e d . U s i n g census d e f i n i t i o n s , a one-to-one r a t i o e x i s t s between households and d w e l l i n g u n i t s . 1 The household i s t h e r e f o r e the most a p p r o p r i a t e p o p u l a t i o n u n i t f o r p r o j e c t i o n s o f hous-i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . However, a household may c o n s i s t o f o n l y one i n d i v i d u a l o r i t may r e p r e s e n t s e v e r a l u n r e l a t e d i n d i v i -d u a l s . I t may equate t o one f a m i l y or i t may be two or more f a m i l i e s o r one f a m i l y w i t h o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l s . S i n c e each o f t h e s e t y p e s o f households r e q u i r e s d i f f e r e n t accommodation i n terms of s i z e , s t r u c t u r e , l o c a t i o n and perhaps t e n u r e , an a n a l y s i s o f the household s t o c k a c c o r d i n g t o t y p e , i c e . , f a m i l y or n o n - f a m i l y , w i l l y i e l d a more p r e c i s e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f u t u r e h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . The f i r s t s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l d e a l w i t h an a n a l y s i s o f the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n t o p r o v i d e a f e e l i n g f o r how the p o p u l a t i o n has grown b o t h i n t o t a l numbers and w i t h r e s p e c t to i t s age and l o c a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n . The second s e c t i o n w i l l d e s c r i b e t h e s t o c k o f f a m i l i e s and the t r e n d s which have o c c u r r e d i n the components o f f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n . L a s t l y , the s t o c k o f households w i l l be s t u d i e d a c c o r d i n g t o age and t y p e . These 73 74 t h r e e p o p u l a t i o n s w i l l p r o v i d e the f o u n d a t i o n f o r the p r o j e c t i o n s o f Chapter 5. 4.1 P o p u l a t i o n I n the y e a r s d i r e c t l y f o l l o w i n g World War I I , the. popu-l a t i o n o f Canada began t o mushroom. The d e p r e s s i o n o f the 1930's was a t h i n g of the p a s t , the war had come t o a c o n c l u s i o n , and s o l d i e r s c o u l d r e t u r n home. The d a i l y l i f e p a t t e r n o f most Canadians was b e g i n n i n g t o r e t u r n t o normal. The f a m i l y was once a g a i n an i m p o r t a n t u n i t . The p o p u l a t i o n f o r the census y e a r s 1951 t o 1971 (Table 4 .1) has been c h a r t e d as age pyramids i n F i g u r e 4 .1 . The baby-boom of t h e s e postwar y e a r s c r e a t e s a " b u l g e " i n t h e s e pyramids which as the y e a r s p r o g r e s s , moves upward. Demographers have l i k e n e d the a s s i m i l a t i o n o f the baby-boom i n t o s o c i e t y " t o the p r o c e s s by which a python d i g e s t s a p i g . As t h e p i g moves a l o n g the snake's d i g e s t i v e t r a c t , i t makes a b u l g e , j u s t as the boom b a b i e s a r e c a u s i n g a t r a v e l l i n g b u l g e i n the economy and s o c i a l l i f e of the c o u n t r y " . 2 A g e n e r a l p i c t u r e o f the p o p u l a t i o n today or i n f i v e y e a r s hence can be e a s i l y o b t a i n e d by s h i f t i n g the e n t i r e age p o p u l a t i o n upward by one or two f i v e - y e a r - a g e c o h o r t s ( t h i s , o f c o u r s e , does not p r o v i d e the youngest c o h o r t p o p u l a t i o n nor does i t account f o r any deaths or m i g r a t i o n s which may o c c u r ) . I n 1976, the b e g i n n i n g s o f the baby-boom w i l l be i n t h e i r t w e n t i e s w h i l e the peak of the boom w i l l be i n t h e i r l a t e t e e n s . T h e r e f o r e , by 1981, we c o u l d expect f a m i l y and household f o r m a t i o n t o be a t a peak. By 1991 a s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n would p r o v i d e a s m a l l e r base f o r new F i g u r e 4.1 P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n b y F i v e - Y e a r A g e G r o u p s a n d S e x , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 ! to-11 So- s4 1 Srt 5 5 - 3fl as> - 2A 10- 'M s - l 9 O - M y 2 4 6'.^  Iss-M '££•&> SD,-54 45"-^ 5f>-<M' 3C--J4 [is r IP- 2 4 6 jg TO 6S-t,9 se-s? 50-Si to-44: 30-14 25-*) ; 20--24 , IS-If 10 - 14 S- 1 O - A 12 8 4 0 4 8 12 N o t e : S o u r c e I 8o T «D-M »-s», ffo-54 *0-24 i O - 5 i 19715 M F p i— — ' l . . 1 4 2 c 2' J T h e scales on each pyramid are not necessar i ly the same. S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s of C a n a d a 1 9 5 1 . V o l u m e I , C h ; 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1956, c a t . n o . 92 -509, C h a r t 1. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 92 -542, C h a r t 2. 4 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 92 -610, C h a r t 2. 5 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 92 -715, C h a r t 1. 76 f a m i l y and household f o r m a t i o n . The q u e s t i o n which a r i s e s is'./whether t h i s d i s t r i b u -t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n combined w i t h p r e s e n t t r e n d s i n household f o r m a t i o n w i l l , i n f u t u r e y e a r s , match the h o u s i n g s t o c k which i s b e i n g shaped today. T h i s i s the s u b j e c t o f the r e m a i n i n g c h a p t e r s . Table 4.1 T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n , Canada, 1951-1971 YEAR POPULATION % INCREASE 19511 14,009,409 19562 16,080,791 14 .8 19613 18,238 ,247 13.4 19663 20 ,014 ,880 9.7 197l : 3 21,568,310 7.8 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census o f Canada 1951, c a t . n o . 98-1951-P-8, Table 21. 2 I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1956, cat.no .92--509, Table 17. 3 I b l d . , Census o f Canada 1971, cat.no • 92-715, I n t r o -d u c t i o n . 4.1.1 Age o f the P o p u l a t i o n The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n among age groups has im p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r f a m i l y and household f o r m a t i o n s i n c e d i f f e r e n t p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m a r r i a g e , d i v o r c e , d e a t h , and of c o u r s e , r e p r o d u c t i o n can be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each age group. S i n c e 1951-, the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n aged under 25 y e a r s i n c r e a s e d from 45-7 per cent t o 49-4 per cent' i n 1966 and then f e l l t o 48 .1 per cent ( T a b l e 4 .2) . The p o p u l a t i o n aged 25-54 y e a r s d e c r e a s e d from 38.9 per cent i n 77 1951 t o 35-5 per cent i n 1966. As the b e g i n n i n g s o f the baby-boom began t o e n t e r t h i s age group, the p r o p o r t i o n r o s e v e r y s l i g h t l y t o 35.7 i n 1971. The 55 y e a r s and over p o p u l a t i o n d e c r e a s e d as a perce n t a g e o f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n between 1951 and 1961. Between 1961 and 1971 the pe r c e n t a g e agedoover 55 i n -c r e a s e d from 14 .7 per cent t o 16.1 per cent (see F i g u r e 4 .2 ) . Table 4.2 P o p u l a t i o n by Age Groups, 1951-1971 UNDER 25 -54 YEAR T 0 T A L 25 YEARS YEARS 55+ YEARS % I n -i % i n -1 7o i n -t % i n -cr e a s e /o c r e a s e 1° c r e a s e /o c r e a s e 19511 14,009,409 45.7 38.9 15.4 19562 16,080,791 14. 8 46 .7 17 .5 38.3 13.2 14 .9 10.9 1961 3 18,238 ,247 13-4 48 .3 17.2 37.0 9.5 14 .7 11.8 19663 20 ,014 ,880 9.7 49.4 12.3 35.5 5.3 15.1 12. 6 19713 21,568,310 7.8 48 .1 5.0 35.7 8.5 16.1 15-1 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1951, c a t . n o . 98-1951-P-8, Table 21. 2 I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1956, cat.no.92-509, Table 17. 3 I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1971, cat.no.92-715, I n t r o -d u c t i o n . 4.1.2 L o c a t i o n o f the P o p u l a t i o n The q u e s t i o n s a r i s i n g r e g a r d i n g h o u s i n g u s u a l l y c o n c e r n the urban a r e a s o f Canada, f o r i t i s i n the s e a r e a s where i n -c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n s o f the p o p u l a t i o n must be housed. I n 1951, the urban p o p u l a t i o n c o n s t i t u t e d 61.5 per cent o f the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . By 1971, 76 per cent were u r b a n i t e s ( T a b l e 4.3). The i n c r e a s e i n the urban p o p u l a t i o n has been c o n c e n t r a t e d 78 F i g u r e 4.2 P o p u l a t i o n by Age Group ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1951-1971 Per ..Cent 50 40 30 20 10 Under 25 Years 25-54 Years 55+ Years 1951 1956 Source: Table 4.2 1961 1966 1971 Table 4.3 Population by Location, 1951-1971 (per cent) 19511 1956 2 . 19613 - 1966* 1971s Canada(population) 14 ,009,429 16,080,791 18,238,247 20,014,880 21,568,310 Rural 38.4 33.4 30.4 26.4 23.9 Farm 18.2 16.4 11.4 9.6 6.6 Non-Farm 20.1 17.0 19.0 16.9 17.3 Urban 61.5 66.6 69.6 73.6 76.0 100,000 8= over 24 .0 38.7 43.4 47.3 47.5 30,000-99,999 10.4 9.2 9.3 8.9 9.0 10,000-29,999 10.7 6.3 5.8 5.8 8.1 le s s than 10,000 16.4 12.4 11.1 11.6 11.5 Table 4.4 The Urban Population, Percentage of T o t a l Urban Population, 1951-1971 19511 19562 196I3 1966" 1971s Urban 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,000 & over 40.0 58.1 62.4 64.3 62.4 30,000-99,999 17.0 13.7 13.4 12.1 11.8 10,000-29,999 17.3 9.5 8.3 7.8 10.7 . l e s s than 10,000 26 .7 18.6 15.9 15.7 15.1 Source: ' S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1951, cat.no.98-1951-P-8 , Table 21. 2 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1956, cat.no.92-509, Table 17. 3 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1961, cat.no.92-542, Table 21. "I b i d . , Census of Canada 1966, cat.no.92-610, Table 20. 5 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1971, cat.no.92-715, Table 8. 80 i n urban c e n t r e s o f over 100 ,000 p e o p l e . • I n 1 9 5 1 , t h e s e cen-t r e s a ccounted f o r o n l y 40 per cent o f the urban p o p u l a t i o n whereas i n 1 9 7 1 , 62.4 per cent o f u r b a n i t e s were i n c i t i e s of t h i s s i z e ( T a b l e 4 . 4 ) (see F i g u r e 4 . 3 ) . S i n c e h o u s i n g problems o c c u r c h i e f l y i n the urban a r e a s where the b u l k o f the p o p u l a t i o n i s l o c a t e d , the compo-s i t i o n o f the urban p o p u l a t i o n becomes most i m p o r t a n t . E s s e n -t i a l l y , the age d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the urban p o p u l a t i o n f o l l o w s the p a t t e r n o f the t o t a l Canadian p o p u l a t i o n . S i n c e 1 9 5 1 , the p r o p o r t i o n o f the urban p o p u l a t i o n which i s aged under 25 y e a r s has i n c r e a s e d t o 47 per cent w h i l e t h o s e aged 25-54 y e a r s has f a l l e n from 41 .5 t o 36.9 per cent ( T a b l e 4 . 5 ) . The p r o p o r t i o n o f the youngest age group appears t o be l a r g e s t i n the s m a l l e r urban a r e a s w h i l e t h o s e aged 25-54 y e a r s o c c u r i n l a r g e r p r o -p o r t i o n s i n the l a r g e s t urban a r e a s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e no grounds t o assume t h a t urban and t o t a l age d i s t r i b u t i o n s w i l l f o l l o w s i m i l a r p a t t e r n s i n the f u t u r e , the t r e n d s t o date do not i n d i c a t e t h a t the p a t t e r n s s h o u l d b e g i n t o d i f f e r . I n any c a s e , s i n c e almost f o u r - f i f t h s o f the p o p u l a t i o n i s l o c a t e d i n urban a r e a s , the c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s o f the urban p o p u l a t i o n dominates t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s . T h e r e f o r e , t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the p r o j e c t i o n s o f Chapter 5 c o u l d be t a k e n as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f urban p o p u l a t i o n s . The growth o f the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s a t the expense o f non-metro r e g i o n s s h o u l d not be assumed as a c o n t i n u i n g pheno-mena. I n f a c t , the American e x p e r i e n c e has been a r e v e r s a l i n the postwar r u r a l - t o - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n . 3 D u r i n g 1970-81 F i g u r e 4.3 D i s t r i b u t i o n of the Urban P o p u l a t i o n , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 Per Cent 100 -90-80 • 70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 ' 0 -1951 T956* 1961 1966 Key Less t h a n 10,000 10,000-29,000 30,000-99,999 100,000+ •3 3 2 1971 Source: T a b l e 4.4 Table 4.5 P o p u l a t i o n by Age Group and L o c a t i o n , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 1 9 5 1 Under 25 to 25 54 55+ 1 9 5 6 2 Under 25 to 25 5t 55+ 1 9 6 1 3 Under 25 to 25 54 55+ Canada R u r a l Farm Non-Farm Urban 500,000 & over 100,000-499,999 30,000-99,999 10,000-29,999 5,000-9,999 2,500-4,999 1,000-2,499 45.7 38.9 15.4 50.6 51.9 49.3 42.5 38.3 42.2 45.0 34.6 33.7 35.6 41.5 43.9 42.4 40.3 47.1 38.2 .14.6 14.2 15.0 15.9 17.6 15.3 14.6 14.6 46' 7 38 3 14 9 48 3 37 0 14 7 51 8 33 7 14 4 52 7 32 6 14 6 52 7 33 0 14 2 53 0 32 5 14 4 50 9 34 4 14 6 52. 5 32 7 14 7 44 1 40 6 15 1 46 3 38 9 14 7 41 6 42 6 15 7 44 5 40 5 14 8 47 3 39 3 13 4 48 5 37 5 13 .8 47 1 38 5 14 2 49 4 36 5 14 .0 48 1 37 2 ) 14 .5 J 49 6 J35 7 }14 .6 48 .9 " 35 .4 -15 .6 49 8 35 .1 - 14 .9 1 9 6 6' Under 25 to 25 54 % % 55+ 1 9 7 1! Under 25 to 25 54 55+ Canada R u r a l Farm Non-Farm Urban 500,000 & over 100,000-499,999 30,000-99,999 10,000-29,999 5,000-9,999 2,500-4,999 1,000-2,499 49.4 35.5 15.1 53.1 31.4 15.1 58.9 31.7 14.6 52.8 31.2 15-9 48.1 35.7 16.1 48.0 45.2 48.9 50.2 50.7 51.5 50.5 51.0 36.9 39.5 36.7 35.5 34.7 33.8 33.3 32.0 14 .9 15.2 14 .3 14 .2 14.5 14.5 16 .0 16 .9 51.5 52.3 51.'1 47.0 44.6 47.8 48.6 49.6 50.2 49.3 49.4 32.0 32.8 31.7 36.9 39.1 36.7 35.5 35.1 33.9 33.2 32.3 16.4 14 .8 17 .0 16.0 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. 17, 18, Source: 1 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada 1951, cat.no.98-1951-P-8, Table 21. 2 I b i d . , Census of. Canada 1956, cat.no.92-509, Table 17. 3 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1961, cat.no.92-542, Table 21. '60 - I b i d . , Census of Canada 19F6", cat .no. 92-610, Table 20. ^ 5 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1971, cat.no.92-715, Table 8. 83 1973, n o n - m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s g a i n e d 4.2 per cent p o p u l a t i o n compared t o o n l y 2.9 per cent f o r metro areas. 1* T h i s i s the f i r s t p e r i o d o f the c e n t u r y i n which non-metro areas have grown a t a f a s t e r r a t e t h a n metro a r e a s . The d e c e n t r a l i z a -t i o n i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o more th a n j u s t metro s p i l l o v e r as c o u n t i e s which a re not a d j a c e n t t o metro area s have a l s o i n c r e a s e d more r a p i d l y than metro c o u n t i e s (3-7 per c e n t ) . Net m i g r a t i o n i n non-adjacent c o u n t i e s has gone from an annual average l o s s d u r i n g the 1960's o f 227,000 t o an annual g a i n o f 13,000 i n the 1970-1973 p e r i o d . A d j a c e n t c o u n t i e s have s h i f t e d from a l o s s o f 72,000 persons t o a g a i n of 222,000. The American non-metro growth has been f e d by s e v e r a l f a c t o r s : d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f m a n u f a c t u r i n g , r e s o r t and r e t i r e m e n t community growth, growth of c o l l e g e towns, and, o f c o u r s e , m e t r o p o l i t a n s p r a w l i n t o a d j a c e n t c o u n t i e s . 4.2 F a m i l y S t o c k A f a m i l y has been d e f i n e d f o r census purposes as con-s i s t i n g o f a husband and w i f e ( w i t h or w i t h o u t c h i l d r e n who have never been m a r r i e d , r e g a r d l e s s o f age) or a pa r e n t w i t h one or more c h i l d r e n never m a r r i e d l i v i n g i n the same d w e l l -i n g . 5 The Canadian census by 1971 had not y i e l d e d t o the f o r c e s o f women's l i b e r a t i o n movement, f o r the "head o f the f a m i l y " was a u t o m a t i c a l l y named the husband i n a husband-wife r e l a t i o n s h i p and o t h e r w i s e t h e p a r e n t i n a one-parent f a m i l y . I n t h i s paper we are not so much i n t e r e s t e d i n the f a m i l y s t o c k i t s e l f but more i n i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p t o the house-h o l d s t o c k . The r a t i o o f f a m i l y households to f a m i l y s t o c k p r o v i d e s 84 a measure of u n d o u b l i n g and t h e r e f o r e new household forma-t i o n . F a m i l y households and n o n - f a m i l y households as p r o p o r -t i o n s o f t o t a l household s t o c k p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o the num-bers of the d i f f e r e n t t y p e s and s i z e s o f h o u s i n g u n i t s which are or w i l l be r e q u i r e d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , census d a t a has not been c o n s i s t e n t l y r e p o r t e d u s i n g the same age group c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . P r i o r t o 1961, age d i s t r i b u t i o n d a t a o f the f a m i l y s t o c k used "under 35 y e a r s " as the youngest c a t e g o r y . S i n c e 1961, "under 25 y e a r s " has been used c o n s i s t e n t l y i n the age d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f a m i l y s t o c k . S i n c e 196I, t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f f a m i l y heads under 25 y e a r s has r i s e n from 4.6 t o 6.4 per cent i n 1971, w h i l e f a m i l y h e a dship 25 t o 54. y e a r s has d e c r e a s e d ( T a b l e 4 .6) . The p a t t e r n o f change u s i n g the under 35 and 35 t o 54 y e a r s age group was i d e n t i c a l . Changes i n f a m i l i e s and ages of f a m i l y heads can be a t t r i b u t e d t o changes i n p o p u l a t i o n , d i v o r c e and m a r r i a g e r a t e s , and i n ages at the time of d i v o r c e and m a r r i a g e . ( T a b l e s 4.7 and 4 .8 ) . I n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n i t was d e t e r -mined t h a t the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n which was under 25 y e a r s had i n c r e a s e d s i n c e 1951. M a r r i a g e r a t e s f o r t h i s age group d i d n o . t t i n c r e a s e between 1966 and 1971 ( T a b l e 4.8) and a l t h o u g h d i v o r c e r a t e s have i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y s i n c e 1968, the p e r c e n t a g e of d i v o r c e s o c c u r r i n g i n the under 25 y e a r s c a t e g o r y i s v e r y s m a l l f o r b o t h males and f e m a l e s . Thus T a b l e 4.6 F a m i l i e s by Age of F a m i l y Head, 1951, 1956, 196l, 1966, 1971 (per c e n t ) 19511 . 19562  19-613 . . 1966" 19715 TOTAL F a m i l i e s 3,287,384 3,711,500 4 ,147 ,444 4,526,266 5,07'6,085 Under 25 Years _ _ 4.5 5.1 6.4 25-54 Years - - 69.4 68.2 66.9 55+ Years - - 26.1 26.7 26 .7 Under 35 Years 27.8 28.1 27 .6 26.9 29.5 35-54 Years 44.5 45.3 46 .3 46 .4 43.8 55+ Years 27.7 26.6 26 .1 26.7 26 .7 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census o f Canada 1951, cat.no.98-1951-F, Table 136. 2 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1956, cat.no.93-507, Ta b l e 56. 3 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1961, cat.no.93-516, Table 73. 4 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1966, cat.no.93-612, T a b l e 79. 5 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1971, cat.no.93-718, T a b l e 51. 86 T a b l e 4.7 M a r r i a g e s and D i v o r c e s - Rates and Average Ages 1951-1974 M a r r i a g e s 1 D i v o r c e s 1 per 1000 per 1000 Average ; Age Average Age At P o p u l a t i o n P o p u l a t i o n at M a r r i a g e Time of D i v o r c e 3 Female Male Female Male 1951 9.2 0?38 . 23.8 26.6 1952 8.9 . 0*39 23.7 26.5 1953 8.8 0...42 23.7 26 .3 1954 8.4 0339 23.6 26.3 1955 8.2 0.39 23.5 26.2 1956 8.3 0:37' 23.4 26 .1 1957 8.0 0 .46 23.3 26 .1 1958 7.7 0:37 23.2 26.0 1959 7.6 0.-37 23 .1 25.9 i960 7.3 OV39 23.0 25.8 1961 7.0 0: 36 22 .9 25.8 1962 7.0 O.36 . 22.8 25.6 1963 6.9 0 .'41 22.8 25 .6 1964 7.2 0.45 22.7 25.4 1965 7.4 - 0 . 4 6 22.6 25.3 1966 7.8 0.51' 22.6 25.2 1967 8.1 0.55 22.6 25.0 1968 8.3 • 0T55' 22.6 25.0 1969 8.7 1. 24 22.7 25.0 38.5 42 . 0 1970 8.8 1 .37 22.7 24 .9 36.9 40 .2 1971 8.9 1.37 22.6 24 .9 36.1 39.3 1972 9.2 1 . 4 8 22.6 24 .8 35.8 38.8 1973 9.0 22.3 24 .7 35.6 38.6 1974 8.9 2 . 01 22.4 24 .7 34.9 39.3 Source : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, c a t . n o . 84-201, Table 3-2 I b i d . , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, c a t . no. 84-205, T a b l e J • 3 I b i d . , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, c a t . no. 84-205, T a b l e 22. 87 Table 4.8 Marriages Rates by Age and Sex, 1966-1974 AGE 19661 >2 19672' 3 19682'" 1969 2' 5 19706 1971 7 1972s 1973 9 1974 1 0 Males (/'ooo) (/'ooo) (/'ooo) (/'ooo) (/•ooo) (/'ooo) (/'ooo) (/•ooo) (/'ooo) 15-19 12.6 12.5 11.8 11.7 12.3 12. 7 14. 5 14. 1 13.4 20-24 110.8 113.6 111.9 109.7 107 .4 107. 0 106. 6 102 . 3 94 .3 25-29 56.0 56.3 55.8 54.8 52.9 51. 1 52. 4 50. 4 48.9 30-34 17.6 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.8 19. 5 19. 0 18. 9 18.9 35-39 8.4 8.5 8.1 9.3 9.6 9. 9 9. 6 10. 3 10.5 40-44- 5.2 5.2 5.3 6.3 6.7 6. 9 7. 0 7. 2 7.4 45-49 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5 5.5 5. 6 5. 7 5. 7 •5.9 50-54 3.7 3.6 3.5 4.7 4.8 5. 1 5. 2 5. 2 5.1 55-59 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.8 4.8 4. 7 4. 6 4. 6 4.6 60-64 4. 3 4. 3 4. 3 4.4 65-69 70-74 3.2 3.4 3.3 4.1 4.1 4. 3. 6 8 4. 4. 5 0 4. 4. 3 0 4.2 3.7 75+ 2. 5 2. 7 2. 4 1.7 Females 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 52.4 50. .9 49. .1 49, .2 49.9 50. ,2 54, .0 .7 48. .0 99.6 104. ,8 104 , .7 102 , .7 100.2 97. .7 95. .9 94, .0 89, ,2 25.9 26, .0 2t£ , .9 27, .6 27 .2 27. .5 28, .5 27, .8 28. .0 9.1 9, .2 9, .0 10, .4 10.9 11, ,4 11, .7 11, .9 12 . 0 5.3 5, .3 5, .0 6, .2 . 6.6 6, ,8 6, .9 7, .1 7. .5 4.0 4; .0 4, .0 4, .9 5.1 5. .3 5, .3 5. .5 5, .3 3.8 3, .8 3, .7 5, .1 4.9 4. .7 " 4, .6 4, .8 4, .9 3.3 3, .4 3, .4 4 .3 4.4 4, .3 4, .4 4, .1 4, .2 3.1 3, .2 3 .2 4 .0 3.7 3. .8 3, .6 3 .7 3, .5 3, .2 3, .5 3 .3 3, .2 2 , .7 2 .7 2 .9 2, .7 1.9 1, .9 1 .9 2 .3 2.3 1, .9 1 .9 1 .8 1 .8 0, .7 0 .6 0 .6 0 .6 Source- »Statistics Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1966 cat no 84-201, Table 1, Table 12. 2Ib s t a t l 5 t l c s 1971. cat.no.84-205, Table 10 3 T h ^ ' v T ^ T T s t a t i s t i c s 1967. cat.no.84-201, Table 1, Table 12. -Ibid v i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1968, cat.no.84-201, Table 1, Table 12. 'Kid I vit»-| S t a t i s t i c s 19D9. cat.no.84-201, Table 1, Table 12. «Ibid. V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1970. cat .no.84-201, Table 1, Table 12. 7 I b i d . , v i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1971. cat.no.84-201, Table 1 ' cat.no.84-205, Table 12. "I b i d . , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1972. cat.no.84-201, Table-1, ' ~ cat.no.84-205, Table 12. 9 I b l d . , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1973. cat.no.84-201, Table 1 ' cat.no.84-205, Table 12. " I b i d . , V i t a l s t a t i s t i c s 1974. cat.no.84-201, Table 1 cat.no.84-205, Table a . 88 T a b l e 4.9 D i v o r c e s by Age o f Husband and Wife at Time of D i v o r c e , 1970-1974 (per c e n t ) H U S B A N D 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Under 2 5 4.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.3 25-49 71.2 73.6 74.5 75.4 76.6 50+ 19.2 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.5 Notf- S t a t e d C4.9) (3.4.) (3.1). (2.8) (2.6 TOTAL 100.0 100 .0 100 . 0 100 . 0 100.0 W I F E 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Under 25 11.7 13.2 13.0 12.7 '13.1 25-49 70.0 70.6 71.8 72.7 73.3 50+ '-. 12.4 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.5 Not S t a t e d (5.4) (4.2) (3.6) (3.2) (3.1) TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, c a t . n o . 84-205, T a b l e 16. 89 I t would appear t h a t the.major source o f the i n c r e a s e i n f a m i l y heads aged under 25 y e a r s o r i g i n a t e s from the I n c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n i n t h i s age group and not from an i n c r e a s e I n mar-r i a g e r a t e s . Between 1966 and 1971, m a r r i a g e r a t e s i n c r e a s e d f o r females aged over 25 y e a r s and males aged over 30. A d e c r e a s e i n the m a r r i a g e r a t e o c c u r r e d f o r males between 25 and 30 y e a r s o l d . D i v o r c e s became i n c r e a s i n g l y c o n c e n t r a t e d i n the 25-49 y e a r s age group f o r both males and f e m a l e s . 4.3 Household S t o c k A household has been d e f i n e d f o r census purposes as "a p e r s o n or a group o f persons o c c u p y i n g one d w e l l i n g " . 6 The group o f persons may c o n s t i t u t e one or more f a m i l i e s or may c o n s i s t o f a f a m i l y and n o n - f a m i l y i n d i v i d u a l s . I n e i t h e r c a s e , t h i s group o f persons i s a f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d . I f none of the members o f the h o u s e h o l d c o n s t i t u t e s a census f a m i l y , t h e n the h o u sehold i s c l a s s i f i e d as n o n - f a m i l y . 7 The t o t a l number of households e q u a l s the t o t a l number of o c c u p i e d h o u s i n g u n i t s . E v e r y household must have a head. " T h i s i s the hus-band i f b o t h husband and w i f e are p r e s e n t , t h e p a r e n t s i f l i v -i n g w i t h u n m a r r i e d c h i l d r e n , or any member of a group s h a r i n g a d w e l l i n g e q u a l l y ; a p e r s o n o c c u p y i n g a d w e l l i n g a l o n e i s always r e p o r t e d as the head". 8 4.3.1 Households by Age In 1956, t h e r e were almost 4 m i l l i o n households i n Canada o f which 86.7 per cent were f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . By 1971, T a b l e 4,10 H o u s e h o l d S t o c k , 19.56,- 19.61, 19.66, 1971 1951 ( ' o o o ) 19561 H o u s e h o l d s . . . . % . . 19612 . H o u s e h o l d s . . . % • • • 19663 H o u s e h o l d s % 1971" H o u s e h o l d s • • • % A l l H o u s e -h o l d s F a m i l y N o n - F a m i l y 3409.3 3,923 ,646 3 ,401 ,161 86.7 522,485 13.3 4 ,554 ,736 3 ,948 ,935 86.7 605,801 13.3 5,180,473 4,376,409 84 .5 804,064 15.5 6 ,040 ,815 4,933,625 81.7 1,107,190 18.3 F a m i l i e s 5 F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s / F a m i l i e s 3,711,500 . 916 4 , 1 4 7 , 4 4 4 .952 4,526,266 .967 5,076,085 • 972 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1956, c a t . n o . 9 9 - 5 0 6 , T a b l e X V . 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 5 1 2 , T a b l e 23. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 0 6 , T a b l e 4 l . 4 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 0 7 , T a b l e 44. 5 T a b l e 4.6. 91 household s t o c k had reached 6,040,875 but o n l y 8177 per cent of t h e s e were f a m i l y households ('(.Table 4 .10) . Between 1961 and 1971, t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f households w i t h heads under 25 y e a r s grew from 3 . 9 .to 6.8 p e r . c e n t , w h i l e the number o f household heads aged 2 5-54 d e c r e a s e d from 64 .7 t o 6 l . 2 per cent ( T a b l e 4.11). W i t h i n f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s , the p r o p o r t i o n o f heads aged 25 and under i n c r e a s e d w h i l e t h o s e aged 35-54 y e a r s d e c r e a s e d between 1956 and 1971. P r o p o r t i o n s aged 25-34 and over 55 y e a r s d i d not change n o t i c e a b l y ( T a b l e 4.12). N o n - f a m i l y household heads aged under 25 y e a r s ± : i c y : : c i n c r e a s e d q u i t e d r a m a t i c a l l y between 1961 and 1971 from 5.3 t o 11.7 per cent ( T a b l e 4.11). Those aged 25-34 y e a r s I n c r e a s e d by 3 per cent w h i l e heads aged 35-54 and over 55 d e c r e a s e d be-tween 1956 and 1971 a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5 per cent and 7 per cent r e s p e c t i v e l y ( T a b l e 4.12). I n summary, t h e n , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f households w i t h heads under 25 y e a r s has been i n c r e a s i n g , e s p e c i a l l y w i t h i n the n o n - f a m i l y household s e c t o r w h i l e p r o p o r t i o n s o f house-h o l d s aged over 35 y e a r s have d e c r e a s e d ( F i g u r e s 4.4 and 4 .5) . 4.3.2 F a m i l y U n d o u b l i n g I n a d d i t i o n t o p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s and changes i n demographic parameters such as m a r r i a g e s , d i v o r c e s , deaths and net i m m i g r a t i o n , net household f o r m a t i o n i s a f f e c t e d by f a m i l y u n d o u b l i n g . A s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n o f f a m i l i e s s h a r i n g accommo-d a t i o n i s a r e s u l t o f an i n c r e a s e d s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g u n i t s and incomes which p e r m i t f a m i l i e s t o occupy t h e i r own p r i v a t e d w e l l i n g s . F a m i l y u n d o u b l i n g can be measured by the change i n the r a t i o s o f f a m i l y households t o t o t a l number o f f a m i l i e s . 92 T a b l e 4.11 Households by Type and Age of Household Head, 1961, 1966, 1971 ALL FAMILY NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLDS 19611 4,554,736 3 ,948 ,935 605,801 Under 25 Y e a r s { % ) 3.9 3.7 5.3 25-54 Years (.5?) 64 .7 69.2 35.4 55+ Y e a r s ( $ ) 31.3 27 .1 59.3 19662 5,180,473 4,376,409 804,064 Under 25 Y e a r s { % ) 5.2 4.5 8.8 25-54 Y e a r s ( $ ) 62.9 68.1 34.3 55+ Y e a r s ( $ ) 31.9 27 .3 56.9 1971 3 6 ,040 ,815 4,933,625 1,107,190 Under 25 Y e a r s { % ) 6.8 5.7 11.7 25-54 Years(#) . 61.2 67 .2 34.5 55+ Y e a r s ( $ ) 32.0 27 .1 53.8 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census o f Canada 1961, c a t . n o . 93-512, T a b l e 23. 2 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1966, c a t . n o .93-606, T a b l e 4 1 . 3 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1971, cat.no .93-707, T a b l e 93 T a b l e 4.12 H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d A g e o f H o u s e h o l d . H e a d , 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 A L L F A M I L Y N O N - F A M I L Y H O U S E H O L D S H O U S E H O L D S H O U S E H O L D S 19561 3,923 ,646 3 ,401 ,161 522,485 U n d e r 35 Y e a r s % 24.4 26.1 13.3 35-54 Y e a r s % 43-9 46 .6 26.4 55+ Y e a r s % 31.7 27.3 60.3 196l 2 4,554,736 3 ,948 ,935 605,801 U n d e r 35 Y e a r s % 24.5 25.9 15.4 25-34 Y e a r s % (20.6) (22.5) (10.1) 35-54 Y e a r s % 44.1 47.0 25.3 55+ Y e a r s % 31-3 27.1 59.3 19663 5,180,473 4,376,409 804,064 U n d e r 35 Y e a r s % 24.8 25.8 19.2 25-34 Y e a r s % (19.6) (21.3) (10.4) 35-54 Y e a r s % 44.0 46 .9 23.8 55+ Y e a r s % 31.9 27.3 56.9 19714 6 ,040 ,815 4,933,625 1,107,190 U n d e r 35 Y e a r s ; % 27.8 28.5 24 .8 25-34 Y e a r s % (21.0) (22.8) (13.1) 35-54 Y e a r s % 40 .2 44.4 21.4 55+ Y e a r s % 31.9 27.1 53.8 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1956, c a t . n o . 99-506, T a b l e X V . 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o • 93' -512, T a b l e 23. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o .93--606, T a b l e 4 1 . 4 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o .93' -707, T a b l e 94 F i g u r e 4.4 Households by Type and Age Group ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1961-1971 Per .Cent 70 60 50 40 30 • 20 : 10 0 F a m i l y Households 25-54 Years 55+ Years Under 25 Years 1961 1966 1971 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Non-Family Households 55+ Years — 25-54 Years Under 25 Years 1961 1966 Source: Table 4.11 1971 F i g u r e 4.5 Households by Type and Age Group ( P e r c e n t a g e ) , 1956-1971 Per Cent 60 50 40 F a m i l y Households 35-54 Years 30 [• Under 25 Years • a- - - ~^ J=~ 55+ Years 20 I-10 1956 1961 1966 1971 Per Cent 60 50 40 30 20 10 Non-Family Households 1956 Source: T a b l e 4.12 1961 1966 55+ Years Under 35 Years 35-54 Years 1971 Between 1956 and 19713 t h e r a t i o f o r Canada i n c r e a s e d from 0.916 t o 0.971 (Table 4.13). A l t h o u g h the r a t i o has improved s u b s t a n t i a l l y over t h i s 15-year p e r i o d , t h e r e s t i l l r e m a i n f a m i l i e s which are doubled up and which a r e p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e s of new household f o r m a t i o n . I n f a c t , the a b s o l u t e number o f households c o n s i s t i n g o f two or more f a m i l i e s had d e c r e a s e d from. 229.4 thousand i n 1951 t o 121.1 thousand i n 1971 (Table 4.14'). 4.3.3 Household S i z e The average s i z e o f a l l households has f a l l e n from 4.0 i n 1951 t o 3-5 i n 1971 (Table 4.15). However, s i n c e house-h o l d s i z e i s l a r g e l y dependent upon the type o f h o u s e h o l d , the average s i z e o f each household type has more meaning. T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e from 1961 o n l y . Between 1961 and 1971j average f a m i l y household s i z e dropped from 4.2 t o 4.0 w h i l e average n o n - f a m i l y household s i z e remained c o n s t a n t a t 1.4 persons per h o u s e h o l d . S i n c e most f a m i l y households con-s i s t o f o n l y one h o u s e h o l d , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the decrease i n f a m i l y household s i z e i s matched by an e q u i v a l e n t decrease i n f a m i l y s i z e i n the same p e r i o d from 3-9 t o 3-7. G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , households w i t h household heads aged under 25 y e a r s or over 55 y e a r s a r e s m a l l e r (2.5 p e r s o n s ) w h i l e those households w i t h heads aged 25-54 y e a r s are the l a r g e s t (4.1 p e r s o n s ) (Table 4.16). Household s i z e f o r households o f a l l age groups has f a l l e n s i n c e 196l (see F i g u r e 4 .6) . 4.3.4 L o c a t i o n o f Households I n Chapter 2, the h o u s i n g s t o c k was d i s a g g r e g a t e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o l o c a t i o n a c c o r d i n g to whether the d w e l l i n g u n i t was l o c a t e d i n a r u r a l or an urban s e t t i n g . T able 4''.17 p r e s e n t s 97 Table 4.13 F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s : F a m i l i e s (per c e n t ) 1956 1961 1966 1971 1 Under 25 78.8 86.3. 87.6 25-54 - 94.8 96.5 97.5 55+ 93-9 98.8 98.9 98.5 TOTAL 91.6 95.2 96.6 97.1 2 Under 35 85.1 89.4 92.7 93.8 35-54 94.3 96.6 97.6 98.5 55+ 93.9 98.8 98.9 98.5 TOTAL 91.6 95.2 96.6 97.1 Source: 1 Table 4.11. 2 T a b l e 4.12. T a b l e 4 .14 H o u s e h o l d s b y T y p e a n d C o m p o s i t i o n , 1951-1971 ('000) C A N A D A 1951 i 1956 i . 1961 2 . 1966 2 1971 3 A l l H o u s e h o l d s 3^409. •3 3,916. 7 4 ,554. 7 .5,18D. 5 6 , 0 4 1 . 3 F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s 3 , 024 . 3 3 , 458 . 7 3 , 948 . 9 4,376. 4 4,933. 5 O n e F a m i l y 2 , 794 . 9 3,254. 1 3,781. 0 4 , 246 . 8 4 , 8 1 2 . 4 F a m i l y o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d - - 3,734. 6 4,209. 5 4,773. 9 B o t h P a r e n t s H o m e - - 3 , 468 . 8 3 , 9 0 5 . 3 4,365. 5 O n e P a r e n t H o m e - - 265. 8 304. 3 408 . 4 F a m i l y O t h e r T h a n T h a t o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d - - 46 . 4 37. 2 38. 5 T w o o r M o r e F a m i l i e s 229. 4 204. 6 167. 9 129. 7 121. 1 I n c l u d i n g F a m i l y o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d - - 165. 7 128 . 3 120 . 0 W i t h N o F a m i l y o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d — - 2. 2 1. 3 1. 1 N o n - F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s 385. 0 458. 0 605. 8 804. 1 1,108. 0 O n e P e r s o n O n l y - - 424. 8 589. 6 811. 8 T w o o r M o r e P e r s o n s - - 1 8 1 . 1 214. 5 296. 0 N o t e : T h e s e n u m b e r s d o n o t i n c l u d e t h e Y u k o n a n d N o r t h w e s t T e r r i t o r i e s a n d d i f f e r f r o m h o u s e h o l d n u m b e r s r e p o r t e d e l s e w h e r e i n t h i s p a p e r . S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1956, c a t . n o . 93-502, T a b l e I V . 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 0 5 , T a b l e 28. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 0 3 , T a b l e 7. 99 T a b l e 4.15 A v e r a g e S i z e o f H o u s e h o l d s a n d F a m i l i e s , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 A L L F A M I L Y N O N - F A M I L Y Y E A R H O U S E H O L D S H O U S E H O L D S H O U S E H O L D S F A M I L I E S 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 4.0 1 3-91 3.9 1 3-7 2 3-5 3 4.2 1 4.2 2 4 . 0 3 1.4 1 1.4 2 1.4 3 3.7" 3.8" 3.9" 3 .9 5 3-7 6 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 93-510, T a b l e 1. 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 0 3 , T a b l e 34. : 3 I b i d f J . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 93-703 , T a b l e 36. — " I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 196l , c a t . n o . 9 3 - 5 1 4 , T a b l e 5 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 1 2 , T a b l e 79. 6 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 1 8 , T a b l e 51. 100 T a b l e - 4- .16 v,... A v e r a g e S i z e o f - H o u s e h o l d ' s b y • A g e o f H o u s e h o l d H e a d Age 1-961;. "1966 '» x 971 A G E 1961 1 1966 2 1971 3 U n d e r 25 2.9 2.7 2.5 25-54 4.5 4.4 4.1 55+ 2.8 -2.7/ 2.5 A l l H o u s e h o l d s 3.9 3-7 3-5 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 93-512, T a b l e 25. 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 0 6 , T a b l e 37. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 0 7 , T a b l e 54. 101 F i g u r e 4.6 Average S i z e o f Household by Age o f Household Head, 1961, 1966, 1971 v T o t a l - Under 25 25-54 55+ Households Years Years Years 3 -•1 -1961 1966 1971 1961 1966 1971 Source: Table 4.15 1961 1966 1971 1961 1966 1971 T a b l e 4.17 H o u s e h o l d ' s " b y U r b a n . oEiiRura3IuL0G.a.tioia'|;-i3>@.56(jeib96lL,>fl.966, 1971 19561 19612 1966 3 19714 C a n a d a ( h o u s e h o l d s ) 3,-923 ' ,646 4 , 5 5 4 , 7 3 6 5 ,180,473 6 , 0 4 1 , 3 0 2 R u r a l {%) 31. 2 28 .0 23.9 2 1 . 5 F a r m {%) 14:7 9.9 8 . 2 5 . 4 N o n - F a r m (%) 16. 5 18 .1 15.7 1 6 . 1 U r b a n (%) 68.8 7 2 . 0 76.1 78.5 500,000+ (%) - ' lm Q 31.8 34.4 100 ,000 -499 ,999 {%) - / " • J O 18.7 16.3 3 0 , 0 0 0 - 9 9 , 9 9 9 {%) - 9 . 4 8.8 8.9 1 0 , 0 0 0 - 2 9 , 9 9 9 (%) - 5.8 5.7 7.8 5 , 0 0 0 - 9 , 9 9 9 (%) - 3.3 3 . 4 3.7 U n d e r 5 , 0 0 0 {%) - '7.7 7.9 7 . 4 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1956, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 5 0 1 , T a b l e I I I . 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1961, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 5 1 0 , T a b l e 2. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 0 2 , T a b l e 2. " I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 0 3 , T a b l e 9. 103 s i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n f o r households but i n c l u d e s t h e i n t e r d e -c e n t e n n i a l y e a r s 1956 and 1966. T h e o r e t i c a l l y , h o u sehold and h o u s i n g s t o c k d a t a s h o u l d be i d e n t i c a l f o r matching y e a r s but due t o sa m p l i n g e r r o r s v a r i e s s l i g h t l y (see R e f e r e n c e 1) . Almost f o u r - f i f t h s o f a l l households i n 1971 l i v e d i n urban l o c a t i o n s and over h a l f were i n urban c e n t r e s o f over 100,000 p o p u l a t i o n . A h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f the n o n - f a m i l y household (83.3 per c e n t ) t h a n f a m i l y households (77.4 per c e n t ) are l i v i n g i n . u r b a n a r e a s (Table 4.18). S i n c e 1961, the number o f n o n - f a m i l y households l i v i n g i n urban a r e a s has i n c r e a s e d by almost 10 per cent w h i l e f a m i l y households i n urban a r e a s have o n l y i n c r e a s e d by 5.6 per c e n t . On t h e a v e r a g e , r u r a l households t e n d t o be l a r g e r , t h a n urban h o u s e h o l d s . I n 1971, the average s i z e o f a r u r a l h o u s ehold s t o o d a t 3-9 w h i l e an average urban household con-s i s t e d o f o n l y 3.4 persons. R u r a l households a r e , t h e r e f o r e , s l i g h t l y s m a l l e r t h a n the average f o r a l l f a m i l y households w h i l e urban household s i z e i s m a r g i n a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n the average f o r a l l households ( T a b l e 4-. 19) . 4.4 Summary The i n t e n t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r was t o p r o v i d e a base from which t o p r o j e c t f u t u r e household f o r m a t i o n and thus f u t u r e h o u s i n g demand. The f u t u r e household s t o c k i s a f u n c -t i o n o f bo t h a b s o l u t e h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n and changes i n the c o m p o s i t i o n o f household s t o c k a c c o r d i n g t o f a m i l y or n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . I n o r d e r t o . a c h i e v e an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f th e s e two par a m e t e r s , f o u r i n p u t s were a n a l y z e d : the p o p u l a t i o n base, 104 T a b l e 4.18 F a m i l y a n d N o n - F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s b y R u r a l a n d U r b a n L o c a t i o n , 196l , 1 9 6 6 , 1971 F A M I L Y H O U S E H O L D S N O N - F A M I L Y H O U S E H O L D S 1961 % 1966 % 1971 % 1961 % 1966 % 1971 % C a n a d a 100. 0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 100.0 R u r a l 28.2 24 . 6 22 . 6 26.6 20.3 16.7 F a r m 10.4 8.8 6.0 6.7 5.0 2.8 N o n - F a r m 17.8 15.6 16.6 19-9 15.4 13.9 U r b a n 71.8 75.4 77.4 73-4 79.7 83.3 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 196l, c a t . n o . 93-510, T a b l e 8. 2 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1966, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 6 0 3 , T a b l e 29. 3 I b i d . , C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 1971, c a t . n o . 9 3 - 7 0 2 , T a b l e 8. 105 T a b l e 4 .19 Average Number o f Persons per Household by L o c a t i o n , 19£6 £ e l ' 96a j& 1 9 6 6 H 0 W I 1 1 9 5 6 1 1 9 6 l 2 1966 3 1971 1* Canada 3.9 3.9 3-7 3.5 R u r a l Farm Non-Farm 4.2 4.5 3.9 4 .2 4 .6 4 .0 4.1 4 .5 4 .0 3.9 4.3 3.8 Urban 500,000+ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 - 4 9 9 , 9 9 9 3 0 , 0 0 0 - 9 9 , 9 9 9 1 0 , 0 0 0 - 2 9 , 9 9 9 5 , 0 0 0 - 9 , 9 9 9 Under 5 ,000 3.8 3-7 J 3 . 7 3.8 3-8 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.3 3-5 3.6 3.6 3.6 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada , Census o f Canada 1 9 5 6 , cat .no. 9 3 - 5 0 1 , 2 I b i d . , T a b l e 34 . Census o f Canada 1 9 6 l , c a t • no. 93-- 5 1 0 , Table 2. 3 I b i d . , Census of Canada 1 9 6 6 , c a t .no . 93' - 6 0 3 , Table 9. " I b i d . , Census o f Canada 1 9 7 1 , c a t .no . 93' - 7 0 2 , T a b l e 106 f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n ( m a r r i a g e s , d e a t h s , d i v o r c e s ) , f a m i l y u n d o u b l -i n g , and n o n - f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n . Another i n p u t , net i m m i g r a t i o n of f a m i l i e s and households has not been d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s chap-t e r but w i l l be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r . The a b s o l u t e i n c r e a s e i n the number o f households which has o c c u r r e d i s a r e s u l t o f f a m i l y u n d o u b l i n g , i n c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n e n t e r i n g the household and f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n ager; and an i n c r e a s e d t r e n d toward n o n - f a m i l y household f o r m a t i o n s . T h i s l a s t o c c u r r e n c e may be a t t r i b u t e d t o the f a c t t h a t m a r r i a g e r a t e s f o r younger-aged i n d i v i d u a l s have d e c r e a s e d and thus more i n d i v i d u a l s a r e l i v i n g s i n g l y o r i n n o n - f a m i l y households f o r l o n g e r p e r i o d s ^ o f time-between l e a v i n g t h e i r p a r e n t s ' homeoalnd marrying". " I t i s a l s o becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y ' ' p o p u l a r o b t a i n one's own accommodation w h i l e w o r k i n g o r a t t a i n i n g a p o s t - s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n as an a l t e r n a t i v e t o c o n t i n u i n g t o l i v e a t home. The p r o p o r t i o n o f households which are non-f a m i l y has been f u r t h e r f o s t e r e d by an i n c r e a s i n g d i v o r c e r a t e a l t h o u g h u n t i l 1971 i t has been the under 25 age group which has had the h i g h e s t I n c r e a s e i n n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . An i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n of households are l o c a t i n g i n the urban a r e a s and most o f t h e s e i n c e n t r e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s of over 100,000. Non^-family households are more "urban" t h a n f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . Household s i z e has de c r e a s e d as a r e s u l t o f s m a l l e r f a m i l i e s . N o n - f a m i l y household s i z e has remained c o n s t a n t a t 1.4 persons s i n c e 1961. Urban households are s m a l l e r t h a n r u r a l h o u s e h o l d s . • 107 A l t h o u g h p r o j e c t i o n s o f the household and h o u s i n g s t o c k are s u b j e c t m a t t e r o f the f o l l o w i n g two c h a p t e r s , the t r e n d s on which the p r o j e c t i o n s w i l l be based have become apparent t h r o u g h the a n a l y s i s conducted i n t h i s c h a p t e r . The developments towards s m a l l e r households o f which p r o p o r t i o n -a t e l y more are n o n - f a m i l y and u r b a n - l o c a t e d and younger, sug-g e s t i n t h e event t h a t the t r e n d s c o n t i n u e , new h o u s i n g u n i t s s h o u l d be i n c r e a s i n g l y s m a l l e r , u r b a n - l o c a t e d , and o f a t e n u r e s u i t a b l e t o younger and n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . I n Chapter 3, i t was shown t h a t i n 1971, s i n g l e detached h o u s i n g had i n c r e a s e d i n s i z e (averagennumber of rooms) w h i l e s i n g l e a t t a c h e d and apartment u n i t s has become s l i g h t l y s m a l l e r . A l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f h o u s i n g u n i t s were m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g a l t h o u g h i n 1971 h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n had r e v e r t e d t o s i n g l e detached b u i l d i n g . A q u e s t i o n i s thus l e f t d a n g l i n g b e f o r e us — i f the s e t r e n d s c o n t i n u e i n t h e i r c u r r e n t d i r e c t i o n s , w i l l not the h o u s i n g s t o c k become g r o s s l y mismatched t o the household s t o c k ? The f o l l o w i n g .chapters s h o u l d shed a d d i t i o n a l (Light on the q u e s t i o n . 108 FOOTNOTES 1"The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a household i s r e l a t e d t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f an o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g ; a census household i s the group o f persons o c c u p y i n g a census d w e l l i n g . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e i s a one-to-one r e l a t i o n s h i p between households and o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s except i n the case o f c e r t a i n s p e c i a l h ouseholds such as th o s e of m i l i t a r y or d i p l o m a t i c p e r s o n n e l s t a t i o n e d o v e r s e a s , from which no h o u s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n was c o l l e c t e d " . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, D i c t i o n a r y o f the 1971 Census Terms, cat.no.1 2-540, p. 67. However, b e f o r e 1971 matching of h o u s e h o l d and h o u s i n g numbers was not a p r a c t i c e so that-i n f a c t t he number of households may not e q u a l the number o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s . 2"Those M i s s i n g B a b i e s " , Time Magazine, September 6, 1974 • " r 3 C a l v i n L. B e a l e , " I s the R u r a l R e v i v a l R e a l ? " , R e a l  E s t a t e Review, V o l . 6 , No. 2 (Summer 1976), p. 10. 11 I n g e n e r a l , i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s metro a r e a s (Stands a r d M e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l A r e a s ) a r e d e s i g n a t e d by the government whenever there,, i s an urban c e n t r e of 50,000 o r more p e o p l e . N e i g h b o u r i n g commuter cc:o.uriMfes3 of metro c h a r a c t e r a r e a l s o i n c l u d e d i n t h e s e a r e a s . A l l o t h e r c o u n t i e s - a r e _ n o n -meitr:oetro„ S t a t i s t i c s Canada, D i c t i o n a r y o f t h e 1971 Census  Terms, cat.no.1 2-540, p. 6. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, o p . c i t . , p. 9. ' G e n e r a l l y , when t h e r e a re t e n o r more u n r e l a t e d p e r -sons o c c u p y i n g one d w e l l i n g , t h i s becomes a c o l l e c t i v e house-h o l d . These h o u s e h o l d s , which u s u a l l y o c c u r i n b o a r d i n g houses, h o t e l s , n u r s i n g homes, and so on, a r e not i n c l u d e d i n the census d a t a on ho u s e h o l d s . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, o p . c i t . , p. 11. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, o p . c i t . , p. 11. Chapter 5 POPULATIONj FAMILY AND •HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 5 .1 P r e v i o u s S t u d i e s A r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e p e r t i n e n t t o t h i s study-e s s e n t i a l l y e n t a i l s an a n a l y s i s of s e v e r a l s e t s of p o p u l a t i o n , f a m i l y and household p r o j e c t i o n s . To the bes t of my know-ledge o n l y f o u r Canadian s t u d i e s have p r o j e c t e d h o usehold p r o j e c t i o n s , one of which a l s o attempted t o p r o j e c t h o u s i n g s t o c k . I n 1967, a study was p r e p a r e d f o r t h e Economic C o u n c i l of Canada by Wolfgang M. I l l i n g . 1 P o p u l a t i o n , f a m i l y , house-h o l d and l a b o u r f o r c e were p r o j e c t e d t o 1986. At t h i s time 1966 census d a t a was i n c o m p l e t e so t h a t t h e p r o j e c t i o n s a r e p a r t l y v found eetwoirl9.^5 Spopu^iat.idni^es'tijriat.e's;;;. I n 1970 t h e Systems Research Group (S.R.G.) p u b l i s h e d p r o j e c t i o n s of f a m i l i e s , households and h o u s i n g t o t h e ye a r 2000. 2 The methodology, which resembles t h a t used by I l l i n g , examined t h e f a c t o r s u n d e r l y i n g f a m i l y and n o n - f a m i l y house-h o l d f o r m a t i o n . However, the S.R.G. a l s o a n a l y z e s h o u s i n g c o m p l e t i o n s by ty p e and e s t i m a t e s h o u s i n g s t o c k t o 2001. The study uses census d a t a t o 1966. A t h i r d s et o f p r o j e c t i o n s p u b l i s h e d r e c e n t l y by S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o v i d e s o p h i s t i c a t e d a l t e r n a t i v e e s t i m a t e s of p o p u l a t i o n , f a m i l i e s and households t o 2001. 3 The method-* o l o g y v a r i e s somewhat from the p r e c e d i n g two s t u d i e s and 109 110 t a k e s account o f 1971''census i n f o r m a t i o n . L a s t l y , b r i e f r e f e r e n c e s h o u l d be made t o a paper p r e -pared by the N a t i o n a l Energy. Board, i n 1969:. I t s B a s i c , c o n c e r n was w i t h s u p p l y o f , and demand- f o r Canadian energy. How-e v e r , p r e l i m i n a r y c a l c u l a t i o n s i n c l u d e p r o j e c t i o n s of t o t a l h o u s ehold s t o c k t o 1990. The methodology i n v o l v e s a p r o j e c t i o n of h o usehold s i z e which i s s u b s e q u e n t l y a p p l i e d t o N.E.B. f i v e - y e a r p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s . The r e s u l t i n g 8,776 thousand households i s lo w e r t h a n t h a t o f the p r e c e d i n g s t u d i e s . 5.1.1 P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s The t h r e e s e t s of p r o j e c t i o n s ( I l l i n g , S.R.G., S t a t i s -t i c s Canada) were g e n e r a t e d by s i m i l a r m e t h o d o l o g i e s but d i f -f e r e n t sets o f "input d a t a . Each r e s e a r c h group us'ed a com-ponent approach, projecting'";'? e r t i l i t y , ' . m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a -t i o n s e p a r a t e l y and a p p l y i n g t h e s e t o the base p o p u l a t i o n . The I l l i n g and S.R.G. s t u d i e s were performed oh a n a t i o n a l s c a l e . P r o v i n c i a l p r o j e c t i o n s were " n o r m a l i s e d " such t h a t when aggregated would e q u a l the p r o j e c t e d n a t i o n a l t o t a l s . The S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s a r e based on a " r e g i o n a l compon-ent approach". P r o j e c t i o n s were performed at t h e p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l f i r s t and t h e n aggregated t o y i e l d a n a t i o n a l p r o j e c t i o n . I l l i n g ' s a g e - s p e c i f i c p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s cover a 15-year p e r i o d (1965-1980) w h i l e the S.R.G. study p r o j e c t s t o 2001 but omits a g e - s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t i o n s i n f a v o u r o f s e l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s on the age-sex d i s t r i b u t i o n s . S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t s t o 1986 but t h e n extends t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s t o 2001 on t h e assumption t h a t demographic parameters would remain c o n s t a n t a t the l e v e l s p r o j e c t e d t o the end of the f i r s t p r o -I l l j e c t i o n p e r i o d . The h i g h e s t p r o j e c t i o n s of* S t a t i s t i c s Canada are c o n s i d e r a b l y more c o n s e r v a t i v e t h a n t h o s e o f e i t h e r the S.R.G. or I l l i n g ( T a b l e s 5 . 1 and 5 . 2 ; F i g u r e 5 . 1 ) . S.R.G. p r o j e c -t i o n s f o r 2001 are almost 7 m i l l i o n h i g h e r t h a n t h o s e o f S t a -t i s t i c s Canada. The low p r o j e c t i o n s of S t a t i s t i c s Canada a r e , however, q u i t e s i m i l a r t o the low e s t i m a t e o f I l l i n g and s l i g h t l y lower t h a n the S.R.G. f i g u r e s . P r o j e c t i o n s f o r 2001 are" 2 m i l l i o n l e s s t h a n t h e , S. RvG'.i.estimate . The p r e f e r r e d (medium) p r o j e c t i o n s o f I l l i n g and the S.R.G. are e x t r e m e l y s i m i l a r . S t a t i s t i c s Canada does not s e l e c t a p r e f e r r e d p r o -j e c t i o n but chooses to o f f e r a range o f . p o s s i b l e p r o j e c t i o n s based on v a r y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s . Changes i n the p o p u l a t i o n a re caused by t h r e e e v e n t s : b i r t h s , deaths and net i m m i g r a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , b e f o r e the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n can be p r o j e c t e d , . b a s i c assumptions and p r o -j e c t i o n s o f the s e t h r e e components of p o p u l a t i o n change must be e s t a b l i s h e d . T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l d i s c u s s each component. The assumptions o f each p r o j e c t i o n r e g a r d i n g the components w i l l be a n a l y z e d . I n t h e f i n a l a n a l y s i s , one p r o j e c t i o n w i l l be s e l e c t e d as most s u i t a b l e , w h i l e any changes i n the assump-t i o n s i n c e the date o f t h a t p r o j e c t i o n w i l l be n o t e d . ' 5 . 1 . 1 . 1 N a t u r a l I n c r e a s e B i r t h s a r e c u s t o m a r i l y e s t i m a t e d by a p p l y i n g age-s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s t o the a p p r o p r i a t e female p o p u l a -t i o n s . B o t h the I l l i n g and the S.R.G. s t u d i e s have made p r o j e c t i o n s based on h i s t o r i c a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s which r e p r e s e n t the number o f b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g per 1000 Table 5 .1 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d P o p u l a t i o n - 1951-2001 I L L I N G 2 S.R.G. ^  STATISTICS > CANADA4 CENSUS 1 High P r e f e r r e d Low High P r e f e r r e d Low High Low 1951 14,009 — — — — - — - -1956 16,081 - - - - - - -1961 18,238 - - - - - - -1966 20,015 - - - - - - -1970 - 21,625 21,294 20,993 - - - - -1971 21,568 - - 22 ,045 21,656 21,605. - -1975 - 23,983 23,127 22,386 - - - - -1976 - - - 24,373 23,399 23,192 . 23,068 22,770 1980 - 26,670 25,510 23,777 - - - 24,827 23,773 1981 - - - 27,129 25,362 24,858 25,312 24,036 1986 - - - 30,347 27,530 26,564 27,811 25,376 1991 - - - 33,888 29,745 28 ,140 30,178 26 ,583 1996 - - - 37,615 31 ,843 29,419 32 ,347 27,560 2001 - - - 41,568 33,801 30 ,345 34,611 28,360 Source: 1 Table 4 . 1 . 2W.M. I l l i n g , P o p u l a t i o n , F a m i l y , Household and Labour F o r c e Growth t o 1980 , (Ottawa, Queen's P r i n t e r , 1 9 7 0 ) , T a b l e s 2 . 7 , 2 . 8 , 2 . 9 . 3System Research Group, Canadian P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s t o th e Year 2000 , ( T o r o n t o , S.R.G., 1 9 7 0 ) , P r o j e c t i o n s A and D. ^ S t a t i s t i c s Canada, P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s f o r Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1972-2001 , cat.no.9 1 - 5 1 4 , P r o j e c t i o n s A and D. Table 5 . 2 P r o j e c t e d P o p u l a t i o n by Age. Group ^: 19J76-2QQ1 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 HIGH FERTILITY PROJECTIONS 0-15 5993. 9 6001. 1 6049. 3 6131. 4 6244. 1 6386. 3 7534. 3 8578. 3 8814 .7 8920. 8 15-24 4547. 9 4623. 0 4683. 6 4727. 3 4749. 2 4745. 5 4302. 4 3964. 5 4760 . 0 5832. 6 25-54 8652. 7 8865. 4 9080. 5 9299. 6 9530. 2 9774. 2 11115. 1 12406. 9. 13222 .3 13777. 3 55+ 3891. 5 3989. 1 4092. 0 4198. 5 4304. 1 4405. 3 4859. 1 5227. 8 5550 .1 6080. 6 T o t a l 23068. 1 23478. 5 23905. 7 24357. 2 24827. 2 25311. 5 27810. 9 30177. 6 32347 .1 34611. 3 LOW FERTILITY PROJECTIONS 0-15 5804. 1 5694. 0 5595. 7 5512. 7. 5447. 5 5403. 1 5569. 4 5798. 4 5783 .4 5559. 7 15-24 4504. 9 4573. 0 4627. 6 4665. 8 4682. 8 4674. 5 4204. 7 3680. 3 3704 . 0 3972. 9 25-54 8579. 0 8769. 1 8959. 9 9154. 6 9358. 8 9576. 6 10782. 0 11935. 9 12611 .3 12880. 4 55+ 3881. 9 3976. 6 4077. 1 4181. 3 4238. 5 4382. 3 4819. 7 5168. 0 5461 .6 5946. 8 T o t a l 22769. 8 23012. 7 23260. 6 23514. 0 23772. 8 24036. 2 25375. 9 26582. 9. 27560 .2 28360. 0 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, O p . C i t . , P r o j e c t i o n s A and D. 1 1 4 F i g u r e 5.1 P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s Thousand P e o p l e 4 2 38 34 30 26 22 h 181 1 4 P r e f e r r e d S t a t i s t i c s Canada S.R.G. Census 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Source: T a b l e 5.1 115 women of s p e c i f i c age groups p e r y e a r . The S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s use a f e r t i l i t y r a t e e x p r e s s e d as t h e t o t a l number of c h i l d r e n per female o f c h i l d - b e a r i n g age. "Rather" t h a n p r e -d i c t i n g t h e number of b i r t h s t o be b o r n by the p o p u l a t i o n per y e a r , t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada model atte m p t s t o e s t i m a t e p r o p o r -t i o n s of women l i k e l y t o have one, two, t h r e e o r f o u r and more c h i l d r e n d u r i n g her c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s and t h e r e b y e s t i m a t e t h e e x p e c t e d t o t a l number of c h i l d r e n per fe m a l e . The f e r t i l i t y r a t e p r o j e c t i o n s of each study a re p r e -s e n t e d i n T a b l e 5.3 w h i l e s t a t i s t i c s r e g a r d i n g f e r t i l i t y r a t e s t o 1974 a r e found i n T a b l e 5.4. I t can be q u i c k l y o b s e r v e d t h a t even the l o w e s t f e r t i l i t y p r o j e c t i o n o f b o t h t h e ' I l l i n g and S.R.G. s t u d i e s a re h i g h e r t h a n the r a t e s a c t u a l l y b e i n g o bserved by 1974. The im p l i c a t i o n : . : o.fV the h i g h f e r t i l i t y r a t e s i s , c e t e r u s paribus,, t)hati'!p:6-p".u*at)i'onep.i?oj:e'ctions a re als'o"-> lilk^ejly t o be h i g h . The low f e r t i l i t y r a t e a s s u m p t i o n o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada, however, p r o j e c t s r a t e s which u n t i l 1974 are almost i d e n t i c a l t o the observed r a t e s . A f t e r 1978, t h e r a t e i s p r o j e c t e d t o remain c o n s t a n t a t 1.80. Some demographers argue t h a t the c u r r e n t d e c l i n i n g t r e n d i n f e r t i l i t y r a t e s s h o u l d not be t a k e n as c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e t h a t the r a t e s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o d e c l i n e . 5 The c u r -r e n t d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y may be a t t r i b u t e d t o b i r t h p o stpone-ments. A f u t u r e r e c u p e r a t i o n of ,'these ^ postponed J o i r t h s o c c u r -r i n g s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . w i t h a r e v e r s i o n t o e a r l i e r motherhood c o u l d r e s u l t n i n a mini-baby boom. S t a t i s t i c s Canada's medium T a b l e 5.3 F e r t i l i t y Rate P r o j e c t i o n s Under V a r i o u s Assumptions A. I l l i n g A G E G R O U P S O F W O M E N TOTAL . .15-19 . .20-2.4. . . .2.5-2.9 . . 30-3.4. . .35.-39 4.0- 44 . .4.5.. -.49 . . FERTILITY 1970 High F e r t i l i t y 47 .9 185 .9 178 .8 116 .9 63.4 20 .8 2 .0 3,078 Medium F e r t i l i t y 44 .9 173 .4 166 .4 109 .0 58.3 18 .9 1 .8 2,863 Low F e r t i l i t y 43 .2 166 .8 159 .9 104 .9 55.5 17 .9 1 .8 2,750 1975 High F e r t i l i t y 47 .2 182 .7 175 .6 114 .8 62 .1 20 .3 1 .9 3,023 Medium F e r t i l i t y 42 .4 163 .5 156 .5 102 .7 54 .2 17 .5 1 .7 2,693 Low F e r t i l i t y 38 .9 149 .5 142 .8 94 .0 48 .5 15 .5 1 .6 2,454 1980 High F e r t i l i t y 48 .1 186 .4 179 .2 112 .9 60.8 19 .9 1 .9 3 ,046 Medium F e r t i l i t y 4l .1 158 .1 151 .1 99 .3 52.0 16 .7 1 .6 2,601 Low F e r t i l i t y 35 .9 137 .5 130 .9 86 .4 43.8 13 .9 1 .5 2,250 Source: I l l i n g , O p . C i t . , Table 2.4 and Tab l e 2-C. T a b l e 5.3 F e r t i l i t y Rate P r o j e c t i o n s Under V a r i o u s Assumptions B. Systems Research Group AGE GROUP FERTILITY RATE . . . 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 15-19 High _ 47.8 47.4 48 .1 48 .1 48 .1 48 .1 48 .1 Medium 49.2 44 .4 42 .1 40 .8 39-5 38.2 36.9 35.6 Low - 42 .3 38.3 35.3 32.3 29.3 26.3 23.3 20-24 High — 185.3 183.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 186.4 Medium 191.1 171.4 162.4 157 .0 151.6- 146 .2 140 .8 135.4 Low - 163.3 147 .1 135-.1 123 .1 111 .1 99.1 87 .1 25-29 High — 178 .2 176.3 179.2 179.2 179.2 179.2 179.2 Medium 184 .0 164 .0 155.4 150.0 144 .6 139.2 133.8 128.4 Low - 156.5 140 .4 128.5 116 .6 104 .7 92.8 80.9 30-34 High — 116 .5 114 .4 112 .9 112 .9 112.9 112 .9 112 .9 Medium 120.2 107.7 102 .0 98.6 95.2 91.8 88.4 85.O Low - 102 .7 92.5 84 .9 77.3 69.7 62 .1 54 .5 35-39 High _ 63.1 61.8 60.8 60.8 60.8 60.8 60.8 Medium 65.6 57 .5 53.8 51.6 49.4 47 .2 45.0 42'.8 Low - 54.1 47.5 42 .8 38.1 33.4 28.7 24 .0 40-44 High _ 20.7 20.2 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 Medium 21.6 18.6 17 .4 16.6 15.8 15.0 14 .2 13 .4 Low - 17 .4 15 .2 13.6 12 .0 10.4 8.8 7 . 2 45-49 High _ 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1 .9 Medium 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Low - •  1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4- ] .3 1,2 1 .1 Source: S.R.G., O p . C i t . , F i g u r e SA - 1 . Table 5.3 F e r t i l i t y Rate P r o j e c t i o n s Under V a r i o u s Assumptions C. S t a t i s t i c s Canada TOTAL CURRENT _LEVEL FERTILITY LOW RATE FOR WOMEN MEDIUM HIGH 1972 2.13 2 .02 2.03 2 .04 1973 2 .13 1.95 1.99 2.02 1974 2.13 1.89 1.98 2.06 1975 2.13 1.85 2.01 2 .16 1976 2.13 1.83 2.07 2.30 1977 2.13 1.81 2.13 2.45 1978 2.13 1.80 2 .16 2.52 1979 2.13 1.80 2.18 2.56 1980 2.13 1.80 2 .19 2 .58 1981 2.13 1.80 2.20 2.59 1982 2.13 1.80 2.20 2 .60 1983 2.13 1.80 2.20 2 .60 1984 2.13 1 .80 2 . 20 2 .60 1985 2.13 1 .80 2.20 2.60 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op.G i t . , Table 4.2. T a b l e 5.4 A g e - S p e c i f i c F e r t i l i t y R a t e s , 1921-1974 Y e a r F e r t i l i t y R a t e s 15-19 20-24 p e r 1, 25-29 000 T o t a l 30-34 W o m e n 35-39 b y A g e 40-44 G r o u p s 45-49 T o t a l F e r t i -l i t y R a t e G r o s s R e p r o -d u c t i o n R a t e G e n e r a l F e r t i -l i t y R a t e 1921 38.0 165.4 186.0 154.6 110. 0 46 .7 6.6 3,536 1.712 107.9 1931 29.9 137.1 175.1 145 .3 103.1 44.0 5.5 3,200 1.555 93.6 1941 30.7 138.4 159.8 122.3 80.0 31.6 3.7 2,832 1.377 86.6 1951 48 .1 188.7 198.8 144.5 86.5 30.9 3.1 3,503 1.701 109 .2 1956 55.9 222. 2 220.1 150.3 89.6 30.8 2.9 3,858 1 .874 116.6 1961 58.2 233.6 219.2 144 .9 81.1 28.5 2.4 3 ,840 1.868 111.5 1966 48 .2 169.1 163.5 103.3 57.5 19.1 1.7 2,812 1.369 81.5 1971 40 .1 134.4 142 .0 77.3 33.6 9.4 0.6 2,187 1.060 67.7 1972 38.5 119.8 137.1 72.1 28.9 7.8 0.6 2 ,024 0.982 63.4 1973 37-2 117.7 131.6 67 .1 25-7 6.4 0.4 1,931 0.937 : 61.5 1974 35.3 113.1 131.1 66.6 23.O 5.5 0.4 1,875 0.911 : 60. 6 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, c a t . n o . 8 4 - 2 0 4 , T a b l e 6. 120 and h i g h f e r t i l i t y r a t e p r o j e c t i o n s r e p r e s e n t the cases of i n c r e a s i n g f e r t i l i t y due t o r e c u p e r a t i o n of postponed b i r t h s and of the mini-baby b o o m . r e s p e c t i v e l y . S i n c e , t o 1974, t h e s t a t i s t i c s p r o v i d e no i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t such a r e v e r s a l has begun t o o c c u r or i s about t o o c c u r , t h e low f e r t i l i t y p r o j e c -t i o n s w i l l be p r e f e r r e d f o r t h i s paper. 5.1.1.2 Net I m m i g r a t i o n I m m i g r a t i o n and e m i g r a t i o n a r e perhaps th e most u n s t a b l e parameters of p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s because they are governed by such a v a r i e t y o f economic, demographic, s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s . P r o j e c t i o n s o f m i g r a t i o n c o u l d be f o r -m u l a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o two methods: (1) e x t r a p o l a t i o n of h i s -t o r i c r e c o r d s , or (2) a n a l y s i s of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between ob-s e r v e d p o p u l a t i o n f l o w s and s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s . The second method becomes r a t h e r complex, and t o date a u s e a b l e model has not been b u i l t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , s t a t i s t i c a l r e c o r d s c o n c e r n i n g e m i g r a t i o n are not a v a i l a b l e so t h a t e s t i m a t e s must be r e l i e d on. The e m i g r a t i o n f i g u r e s of Tab l e 5.5 have been • c a l c u l a t e d on a decade b a s i s , as the r e s i d u a l a f t e r s u b t r a c t -i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n at the end of a decade from t h e sum o f p o p u l a t i o n at t h e s t a r t of the decade, t o t a l i m m i g r a t i o n and t o t a l n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . Between 1966 and 1971 an annual average o f 173,000 i m m i g r a n t s have e n t e r e d Canada (Table 5-6). S i n c e 1971, immi-g r a t i o n numbers have i n c r e a s e d . I l l i n g assumed a., c o n s t a n t e m i g r a t i o n r a t e of 80,000, o n l y s l i g h t l y lower t h a n t h e Manpower and I m m i g r a t i o n e s t i m a t e s Table 5-5 Components o f P o p u l a t i o n Growth, 1861-1971 ('ooo) Decade P o p u l a t i o n S t a r t o f Decade B i r t h s Deaths N a t u r a l I n c r e a s e Immi-g r a t i o n .'Emi-g r a t i o n * Net M i g r a t i o n 1861-71 3,230 1,369 .. 718 651 183 375 - 192 1871-81 3,689 1,477 754 723 353 440 - 87 1881-91 4 ,325 1,538 824 714 903 1,109 - 206 1891-1901 4,833 1 ,546 828 718 326 506 - 180 1901-11 5,371 1,931 811 1,120 1,759 1,043 716 1911-21 7,207 2,338 988** 1,350 1,612 1,381 231 1921-31 8,788 2,415 1,055 1,360 1,203 974 229 1931-41 10,377 2,294 1,072 1,222 150 242 - 92 19,41-51 11,507 3,186 1 , 214** 1,972 548 379 169 19'5i-6l 14 ,009*** 4 ,468 1,320 3 ,148 1,543 462 1,081 1961-71 18,238 4,063 1,360 2,703 1 ,429 802 627 - * A r e s i d u a l , c a l c u l a t e d by addi n g n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e and i m m i g r a t i o n t o the p o p u l a t i o n count a t the s t a r t o f the decade and s u b t r a c t i n g the p o p u l a t i o n count a t the end o f the decade. ** I n c l u d e s deaths r e s u l t i n g from the two w o r l d wars, numbering 120,000 and 36,000 r e s p e c t i v e l y . *** I n c l u d e s Newfoundland. Source: Department o f Manpower and I m m i g r a t i o n , I m m i g r a t i o n and P o p u l a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s , (Canadian I m m i g r a t i o n and P o p u l a t i o n Study) cat.no.MP23-37-1974-3 (Ottawa, I n f o r m a t i o n Canada, 1974), Table 1.4. Table 5-6 I m m i g r a t i o n t o Canada, 1966-19.74, Age and Sex S p e c i f i c 1966 1967 . 1.9.68 . 1969 1970 1971 • • 1972 .1973 .1974 0-4 20,630 21,364 16,330 13,97.7 12,291 10,159 10,566 14,202 18,506 5-9 17,292 18,297 14,499 12,673 11,309 9,461 9,959 14,311 20 ,240 10 -.14; 11,514 12 ,040 9,701 8,416 7,610 6,888 7,094 10,621 15,165 15-19 14,713 15,533 13,674 11,837 110,700 9,200 9,687 1 4 , 6 4 3 15,698 20-24 36,212 45,720 39,326 35,073 33,782 25,720 24,032 37,169 36 ,546 25-29 33,287 41,598 33,496 30,573 28,351 23,330 23,211 35,665 40,795 30-34 20,695 24,377 18,989 17,529 15,775 12,370 12,367 19,330 24,038 35-39 13,681 14,889 11,544 10,009 8,779 .7,294 7,229 11,365 14,782 40-44 8,689 8,982 7,089.' 5,610 5,052 4,281 4,163 6,858 8,580 45-49 4,981 5 ,646 4,603 3,728 3,183 2,825 2,831 4,874 5,970 50-54 3,735 3,883 3,209 2,532 2,270 . 2 ,124 2,327 3,754 4 ,642 55-59 3,078 3,525 3,302 2,732 2,339 2,117 2,094 3,138 3,586 60-64 2,336 2,764 3,275 2,772 2,328 2,312 2,417 3,164 3,874 65-69 1 ,941 2,159 2,547 1,999 1,924 1,824 1,880 2,321 2,802 70+ 1,959 2,099 2,390 2,071 2,020 1,995 2,149 2,785 3,061 TOTAL 194,743 222,876 183,974 161,531 1147,713 121,900 122,006 184,200 218,465 Source: Department of Manpower and I m m i g r a t i o n , I m m i g r a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s 1966, Table 11. I b i d . , I m m i g r a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s 1967-1974, Table 5. 123 f o r 1961-71. A p r e f e r r e d i m m i g r a t i o n r a t e i s p r o j e c t e d at 150,000 per ye a r w h i l e a low and h i g h of 100,000 and 200,000 a r e used t o I l l u s t r a t e impact o f such r a t e s were they t o o c c u r (Table 5.7). The Systems Res e a r c h Group p r o j e c t s age and sex s p e c i f i c net i m m i g r a t i o n r a t e s . A h i g h and a medium r a t e based on 1961-1966 and 1951-1966 l e v e l s of I m m i g r a t i o n y i e l d e d l e v e l s of i m m i g r a t i o n r o u g h l y e q u i v a l e n t t o I l l i n g ' s h i g h and medium e s t i m a t e s . S t a t i s t i c s Canada assumes a c o n s t a n t emigra-t i o n r a t e of 60,000. Upper and lower l i m i t s o f i m m i g r a t i o n a r e d e r i v e d from an average of t h e t h r e e y e a r s of the 1960's w i t h t h e h i g h e s t i m m i g r a t i o n and t h e t h r e e y e a r s w i t h the lo w e s t i m m i g r a t i o n r e s p e c t i v e l y . Medium v a l u e s of 120,000 and 160,000 a r e g i v e n as p r e f e r r e d v a l u e s of i m m i g r a t i o n . As i m m i g r a t i o n i s e n t i r e l y f l e x i b l e a c c o r d i n g t o p o l i -t i c a l , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c and demographic f a c t o r s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t y t o 68n6iulf,-th ,at 8R§ gP8|§8£i8R i§ m8r§ a p p r o p r i a t e t h a n 7 another, another 'Mew Tmr. L e g i s l a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y - , b e i n g draf.ted f o r i n t r o d u c t i o n ^ i s i a t i o n i n c j / r r e n t i y n e i n g d r a t t e o a ... -t h i s autumn or e a r l y w i n t e r (1977) and I s r e p o r t e d l y based on a rsrfeudy; which a d v i s e s t h a t "Canada must c o n t i n u e t o welcome a minimum o f 100,000 immigrants a year as l o n g as p r e s e n t f e r -t i l i t y r a t e s p r e v a i l " ! The S c i e n c e C o u n c i l of Canada r e c e n t l y recommended t h a t an annual l i m i t of i m m i g r a t i o n be. s e t at 100,000. 6 5.1.1.3 M o r t a l i t y I n 1970 the death r a t e r e a c h e d 7.3 persons per 1000 124 Table 5-7 Net I m m i g r a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s (a) I l l i n g 1 H i g h I m m i g r a t i o n Medium Low 120,000 70,000 20,000 (b) S t a t i s t i c s Canada 2 P r o j e c t i o n A ( h i g h ) P r o j e c t i o n D (low) 100,000 60,000 Source: 1 I l l i n g , Op. C i t . , Table 2-D. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s , T able 5.1. 125 p o p u l a t i o n , the l o w e s t r a t e t o d a t e . I n 1971, t h e r a t e i n c r e a s e d v e r y s l i g h t l y t o J.H and remained a t t h a t l e v e l t o 1974 ( T a b l e 5;8). U n t i l 1971 l i f e e xpectancy had i n c r e a s e d f o r b o t h males and females t o 69.3^ y e a r s and 76.36 y e a r s r e s -p e c t i v e l y ( Table >5.9) and a t the same time the span between the e x p e c ted l i v e s of males and females has i n c r e a s e d . The I l l i n g p r o j ec-tdons ^assumed a c o n t i n u i n g i n c r e a s e i n l i f e e x p e c t a t i o n • a t b i r t h hut a t a d e c r e a s i n g r a t e . The e s t i m a t e s for - 1 9 7 1 were e x t r e m e l y c l o s e . t o V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s fig-ures f o r l i f e expectancy f o r males but were s l i g h t l y lower?" f o r f e m a l e s . S.R.G. assumptions r e g a r d i n g m o r t a l i t y were s i m i l a r t o th o s e o f I l l i n g . S t a t i s t i c s Canada t r e a t s t h e q u e s t i o n o f m o r t a l i t y i n a somewhat more complex manner. Death r a t e s are a n a l y z e d a c -c o r d i n g t o t r e n d s i n age, sex and d i s e a s e . We cannot be c e r t a i n w i t h such l i m i t e d d a t a but c u r -r e n t d e a t h r a t e t r e n d s would suggest t h a t f u r t h e r d e c r e a s e s i n t h e d e a t h r a t e and i n c r e a s e s i n l i f e e x p e c t a n c i e s may be h a l t e d and p o s s i b l y r e v e r s e d . Prom t h i s b r i e f a n a l y s i s of the assumptions under-l y i n g each o f the p r o j e c t i o n s , i t would appear as though the l o wer p r o j e c t i o n of S t a t i s t i c s Canada which i s based on low f e r t i l i t y r a t e s and a net i m m i g r a t i o n of 60,000 i s most approp-r i a t e . Other p r o j e c t i o n s f a i l e d t o approximate f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , i m m i g r a t i o n and d e a t h r a t e s f o r the y e a r s t o 1974 f o r w hich d a t a has s i n c e become a v a i l a b l e . 5.2.1 F a m i l y and Household P r o j e c t i o n s Two approaches have been adopted t o p r o j e c t households 126 T a b l e 5.8 Death Rates and Average Ages a t Death, Male and Female, 1951-1971 YEAR DEATHS1 PER 1000 POPULATION AVERAGE AGE AT DEATH 2 Males Females 1951 9. .0 56, .3 58, .7 1952 8, .7 ' 55. • 7 58, .1 1953 8, .6 56, .4 59, .3 1954 8, .2 57. .2 60, .0 1955 8, . 2 57. .9 60, .5 1956 8, .2 58, .0 60, .6 1957 8, .2 58, ,1 60, .8 1958 7 • • 9 58, .4 61, .4 1959 8, . 0 59. .1 62, .3 I960 7. .8 59. .5 62, .7 1961 7. • 7 59. .7 63. .1 1962 7. • 7 59. .9 63. ,2 1963 7. .8 60, .5 64, .1 1964 7. .6 60, • 7 64, .3 1965 7. .6 61, .7 65. .4 1966 7, .5 62, ,0 65, .9 1967 7. .4 62. , 2 66, ,2 1968 7. .4 62, .9 67. ,1 1969 7. .4 62, .9 67, .3 1970 7. .3 63. , 0 67. .5 1971 7. .3 63. • 3 68, .2 1972 7. .4 63- • 3 68, ,6 1973 7. ,4 63. ,6 69. .1 1974 7. .4 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, c a t . n o . 84-201, Table 3. 2 I b i d . , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1973, cat.no.84 -206, Table 13A. -Table 5.9 E x p e c t a t i o n o f L i f e , 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, 1971 Age 1951 . Male Female. 1956 . .Male Female 1961 Male Female 1966 Male Female 1971 Male Female At B i r t h 66.33 70. 83 67.61 72.92 68.35 74.17 68.75 75.18 69.34 76.36 1 Year 68.33 72.33 69.04 73.99 69.50 74.98 69.53 75.71 69.76 76.56 5 Years 64.86 68.80 65.45 70.35 65.83 71.27 65.82 71.97 66.02 72.79 25 Years 46.20 49.67 46.61 50.97 46 .91 51.80 46.94 52.52 47.16 53.34 50 Years 23.88 26.80 24.04 27.65 24.25 28.33 24.31 29.02 24.52 29.86 75 Years 7.89 8.73 7.98 9.15 8.21 9 .48 8.37 9.94 8.47 10.63 100 Years 1. 60 -M.59 1.52 2.05 1.49 1.56 2 .04 1.69 1.71 1.89 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1972, cat.no.84 -206, Ta b l e 5. 128 and f a m i l i e s . . The f i r s t , t h e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s a p p r o a c h , i n v o l v e s p r o j e c t i n g the f o r m a t i o n and d i s s o l u t i o n o f f a m i l i e s . M a r r i a g e s , net i m m i g r a t i o n o f m a r r i e d f e m a l e s , d i v o r c e s , and deaths o f m a r r i e d persons a r e the major components. Both I l l i n g and t h e S.R.G. have adopted t h i s method. The second approach i n v o l v e s the a p p l i c a t i o n of head-s h i p r a t e s t o a p p r o p r i a t e p o p u l a t i o n s . S t a t i s t i c s Canada has employed t h i s method on t h e s t r e n g t h t h a t i t d o e s r n o t attempt t o p r o j e c t changes i n f a m i l y u n i t s by u s i n g s t a t i s t i c s r e l a t i n g t o i n d i v i d u a l s . 7 By a p p l y i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f becoming heads of f a m i l i e s o r households t o p o p u l a t i o n s , the p r o j e c t i o n s remains r e l a t e d t o i n d i v i d u a l s . The S.R.G. and I l l i n g s t u d i e s p r o j e c t net f a m i l y f o r -m a t i o n as the f i r s t s t e p towards a t t a i n i n g a f i g u r e f o r house-h o l d f o r m a t i o n . The second s t e p i n v o l v e s a p r o j e c t i o n of f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s / t o t a l f a m i l i e s and n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s / t o t a l h o u s e h o l d s . b a s e d on h i s t o r i c t r e n d s . L a s t l y , by combin-i n g s t e p s one and two, expected numbers of households by type ( f a m i l y , n o n - f a m i l y ) a re o b t a i n e d . 5.2.1 .1 M a r r i a g e s I n t h e p e r i o d 1963-1972, m a r r i a g e r a t e s r o s e from 6.9 t o 9.2 per 1000 p o p u l a t i o n (Table 5-1Q). At the same t i m e , t h e average age of bot h b r i d e s and bridegrooms c o n t i n u e d t o d e c r e a s e . I n 1973 and 1974 m a r r i a g e r a t e s t u r n e d s l i g h t l y downward a g a i n w h i l e the average age c o n t i n u e d i t s t r e n d downward. The a v e r -age i s , however, a m i s l e a d i n g s t a t i s t i c as i t i m p l i e s t h a t t h e t r e n d i s towards younger m a r r i a g e s . However, the younger age 129 T a b l e ;5~ 1.0 Average Age a t M a r r i a g e o f S i n g l e Persons (never p r e v i o u s l y m a r r i e d ) , Canada (1951-1973) BRIDES BRIDEGROOMS MARRIAGES PER 1000 POPULATION 1951 23.8 26.6 9.2 1952 23-7 26.5 8.9 1953 23.7 26.3 8.8 1954 23.6 26.3 8.4 1955 23.5 26.2 8.2 1956 23.4 26.1 H.3 . 1957 23.3 26.1 8.0 1958 23.2 26.0 7.7 1959 23.1 25.9 7.6 I960 23. 0 25.8 .7.3 1961 22.9 25.8 7.0 1962 22.8 25.6 7.0 1963 22.8 25.6 6.9 1964 22.7 25.4 7.2 1965 22.6 25.3 7.4 1966 22 .6 25.2 7.8 1967 22.6 25.0 8.1 1968 22 . 6 25.0 8.3 1969 22.7 25.0 8.7 1970 22.7 24 .9 8.8 1971 22.6 24. 9 8.9 1972 22.6 24 .8 9.2 1973 22.3 24 .7 9.0 1-974 22.4 " 2k-. 7 8; 9 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 205, Table 7. I b i d . , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s 1974, cat.no 1973, cat.no.8 4 -.84-205, Table : 130 i s a d i r e c t consequence of l a r g e r younger p o p u l a t i o n s , and, as i s ev i d e n c e d i n Table 4.8, i s not a r e s u l t o f g r e a t e r proportion's ' of the younger p o p u l a t i o n s b e i n g m a r r i e d . T able ' 4.8 r e v e a l s t h a t marriages-are,.. I n f a c t , b e i n g s'hifted t o s l i g h t l y o l d e r age groups. I l l i n g c o n c l u d e d t h a t any r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f m a r r i a g e r a t e s among t h e age groups would be s l i g h t . The S.R.G. b o r -rowed I l l i n g ' s p r o j e c t i o n s and e x t r a p o l a t e d t o o b t a i n v a l u e s t o 2001 (Table 5.11));.. The S.R.G. m a r r i a g e r a t e p r o j e c t i o n s , , because a d i s t r i b u t i o n a l change a c t u a l l y has o c c u r r e d , a re i n v a l i d — a t l e a s t i n t h e i r e a r l y y e a r s . Rates f o r males aged 20-29 a r e o v e r s t a t e d w h i l e the r a t e s f o r males aged 30-74 have been u n d e r e s t i m a t e d . Female p r o j e c t i o n s a re h i g h 1 ; f o r t h o s e aged 15-24 and low f o r females aged 25-74. 5.2.1.2 D i v o r c e s I n 1968, a new D i v o r c e Act was e n a c t e d 8 which expanded the grounds f o r d i v o r c e such t h a t e s s e n t i a l l y any c o u p l e c o u l d o b t a i n a divorce,.-by h a v i n g been s e p a r a t e d f o r a t l e a s t t h r e e y e a r s . D i v o r c e s no l o n g e r had t o be approved by t h e Senate but c o u l d i n s t e a d be c o m p l e t e l y p r o c e s s e d by a p r o v i n c i a l c o u r t . S i n c e the new l e g i s l a t i o n , d i v o r c e r a t e s have i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y , from 5^.8 (per 100,000) i n 1968 t o 200.6 (per 100,000) i n 1974 (Table 4.77). Both I l l i n g and t h e S.R.G. p r o j e c t i o n s were made p r i o r t o the change i n l e g i s l a t i o n and t h e r e f o r e g r o s s l y u n d e r e s t i -mate d i v o r c e s r c e s . 5.2.1.3 Deaths of M a r r i e d Persons I n b o t h the I l l i n g and S.R.G. s t u d i e s a f a c t o r of .54 Table 5.11 S.R.G. P r o j e c t i o n s f o r A g e - S p e c i f i c M a r r i a g e R a t e s , 1966-2001 1966 1971 15-19 12.6 10.3 20-24 110.8 110.5 25-29 56.0 56.7 30-34 17.6 15.5 35-39 8.4 8.0 40-44 5.2 4.7 45-49 4.1 3.7 50-54 3.7 3.3 55-59 3.6 3.2 60-64 3.5 3.4 65-69 3.6 3.4 70-74 3.7 - 3.3 75+ 2.0 3.1 1966 1971 15-19 52.5 53.3 20-24 99.6 106.0 25-29 25.9 26.8 30-34 9.1 : 7-8 35-39 5.3 4.7 40-44 4.0 3.7 45-49 3.8 3.4 50-54 3-3 3.2 55-59 3.1 3.1 60-64 2.7 2.6 65-69 2.5 2.4 70-74 1.6 1.7 75+ 0.6 1.0 M A L E S 1976 1981 1986 9.6 8.9 8.2 113 . 0 M15 . 5 118.0 57.4 58.1 58.8 14.1 12.7 11.3 8.0 8.0 8.0 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.8 3.2 3-0 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 F E M A L E S 1976 1981 1986 54.8 53.6 57.8 111.0 116.0 121.0 28.0 29.2 30.4 6.8 5.8 4.8 4.3 3-9 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 3-0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1991 1996 2001 7.5 6.8 6.1 120.5 123.0 125.5 59-5 60.2 60.9 9.9 8.5 7.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.1 2.7 2.3 3.3 3-2 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.0 3-0 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.5 1991 1996 2001 59.3 60.8 , 62.3 126.0 131.0 136.0 31.6 32.8 34.0 3.8 2.8 1.8 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.6 .1 .6 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Source: S.R.G., Op. C i t . , F i g u r e 2.1. 132 i s a p p l i e d t o th e p r o j e c t e d a n n u a l number o f t o t a l deaths of peop l e over the age o f 30 t o o b t a i n p r o j e c t i o n s of deaths o f m a r r i e d p e r s o n s . H i s t o r i c a l l y t h i s f a c t o r has proven t o be s t a t i c . 9 5.2.1.4 Net I m m i g r a t i o n of F a m i l i e s Both s t u d i e s have e s t i m a t e d t h e net i m m i g r a t i o n o f f a m i l i e s . b y u s i n g h i s t o r i c t r e n d s o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f m a r r i e d females i n net i m m i g r a t i o n . W h i l e t h i s assumes t h a t each m a r r i e d female b r i n g s w i t h her a husband and/or c h i l d r e n i t i s c o n s i d e r e d a good' e s t i m a t e o f f a m i l y m i g r a t i o n . Between 1966 and 1974, the number o f immigrants who are m a r r i e d females has v a r i e d between 343000 and 47,000 and has acco u n t e d f o r 20 t o 22 per cent of t o t a l immigrants (Table 5-12). I l l i n g c a l -c u l a t e d t h a t about 23 per cent of the i m m i g r a t i o n f i g u r e t o be m a r r i e d f emales (16,500 a n n u a l l y ) . The S.R.G. p r o j e c t s an i n c r e a s e o f net m i g r a t i o n of m a r r i e d females by 2001 (see • Ta b l e 5-13) from an ann u a l average o f 18,400 i n t h e 1966-1971 p e r i o d t o 31,400 i n t h e 1966-2001 p e r i o d . 5.2.1.5 Headship The approach used by S t a t i s t i c s Canada, t h e headship r a t e method, a v o i d s p r e l i m i n a r y p r o j e c t i o n s o f the components of f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n . I n s t e a d h e a d s h i p r a t e s — p r o p o r t i o n s of heads i n g i v e n p o p u l a t i o n s - - a r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r v a r i o u s sub-g r o u p s , namely th o s e o b t a i n e d by th e c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n s o f age, sex and m a r i t a l s t a t u s . The a g e - s e x - s p e c i f i c p o p u l a t i o n s p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d a r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o a m a r i t a l s t a t u s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n which i n c l u d e s the f o l l o w i n g t h r e e groups: (1) s i n g l e , (2) m a r r i e d spouse p r e s e n t , (3) ever mar-Table 5.12 I m m i g r a t i o n o f M a r r i e d Females, 1966-1974 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Number 41,781 47,197 39,618 34,743 31,726 26,760 27,013 37,514 • 47,099 P e r c e n t of T o t a l 21.4 21.1 21.5 21.5 21.4 21. 9 22.1 -20.3 21.5 Source: Department o f Manpower and I m m i g r a t i o n , I m m i g r a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s , 1966, Table 11. I b i d . , I m m i g r a t i o n S t a t i s t l e s , 1967-74, Table 5. T a b l e . 5 .13'•, P r o j e c t e d (S.R.G.) Net M i g r a t i o n o f M a r r i e d Females 196.6-71 19.71-76 1976-81 . . 19.8I-8.6 . . 1986-91 1991-96 1996-2001 T o t a l 82,000 96,000 116,000 136,000 151,000 155,000 157,000 Annual Rate. . . . 16,50.0 • . . 19,200 . . 2.3,20.0. . 27,200. 30,200 31,000 31,400 Source: S.R.G., Op. C i t . , F i g u r e 4. 134 r i e d spouse a b s e n t . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of th e s e groups i s p r o -j e c t e d by e x t r a p o l a t i o n o f observed t r e n d s between 1951 and 1971. The p r o p o r t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n aged over 15 y e a r s which i s s i n g l e has h i s t o r i c a l l y been d e c l i n i n g and i s p r o -j e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e t o d e c l i n e a c c o r d i n g t o the f i g u r e s below (Table 5.14). T a b l e 5 . Li-P r o p o r t i o n s S i n g l e i n P o p u l a t i o n Aged 15 Years and Over by Sex, 1951-1986 1951 1956 196.1 . .196.6. . .19.71 • .197.6. . .19.8.1 1986 Male (58) Female(%) 35.8 28.0 35.0 26 .5 33.5 25.3 32.9 25.4 31.6 25.0 30.7 24 .5 29.9 23.8 29 .1 22.9 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, F a m i l y and Household P r o j e c t i o n s  f o r Canada and the P r o v i n c e s t o 2001, T a b l e 3 .1. The r e m a i n i n g p r o p o r t i o n i n each age-group i s , of c o u r s e , a l l t h o s e who are m a r r i e d . The p r o p o r t i o n of thos e m a r r i e d w i t h spouse absent ars? e x t r a p o l a t e d from observed t r e n d s . The p r o p o r t i o n o f th o s e m a r r i e d w i t h spouse absent i s p r o j e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e f o r b o t h sexes but at a more r a p i d r a t e f o r females t h a n f o r males. The h e a d s h i p r a t e s o f each subgroups which r e s u l t s from the c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n o f sex, age and m a r i t a l s t a t u s i s t h e n p r o j e c t e d u s i n g e x t r a p o l a t i o n of p a s t t r e n d s . Three t y p e s of n o n - o v e r l a p p i n g h e a d s h i p r a t e s are i d e n t i f i e d and p r o j e c t e d : (1) heads o f p r i m a r y f a m i l i e s , (2) heads of secon-dary f a m i l e s ; and (3) heads of n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . P r i -mary f a m i l i e s are f a m i l i e s of which t h e head i s a l s o the head 135 o f t he ho u s e h o l d w h i l e f a m i l i e s whose heads are not a l s o the head of t h e household a r e c l a s s i f i e d as secondary f a m i l i e s . Thus, secondary f a m i l i e s may l i v e i n p r i m a r y f a m i l y households or i n n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . N o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s , t h e n , u n l i k e under census d e f i n i t i o n s , may c o n s i s t of a s i n g l e p e r -son, a group o f i n d i v i d u a l s , or s i n g l e p e r s o n ( s ) and a f a m i l y . The sum. off, p r i m a r y and secondary f a m i l i e s y i e l d s t o t a l f a m i -l i e s w h i l e p r i m a r y f a m i l i e s p l u s n o n - f a m i l y households e q u a l s t o t a l h o u s e h o l d s . Two h e a d s h i p j r a t e hypotheses a re i d e n t i f i e d . The f i r s t assumes a f u t u r e t r e n d i n r a t e s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e ob-se r v e d change between 1951 and 1971. The second h y p o t h e s i s assumes a t r e n d t h e same as t h a t which o c c u r r e d between 1961 and 1971 and y i e l d s t h e h i g h e r p r o j e c t i o n s . The number of households c o n t a i n i n g secondary f a m i l i e s can be a s c e r t a i n e d from t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e d i n Ta b l e 4.14. In 19713 120, OQOuhe.uiseholidS'hwo.dl'dwhave" been c l a s s i f i e d as p r i - • maryiafamilyilfrousteh©^ (or 2.3 per c e n t c o f i t a M ho.useho.M'SH>id;Ih.thensame year, 38,500 -family * households (0.6 per cent of the t o t a l s t o c k ) would be p l a c e d i n t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada n o n - f a m i l y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . House-h o l d s t o c k by t y p e r e v i s e d t o concur w i t h the S t a t i s t i c s Canada d e f i n i t i o n s i s summarized i n Ta b l e 5.15. Household and f a m i l y p r o j e c t i o n s g e n e r a t e d by the S t a -t i s t i c s Canada study a re summarized i n T a b l e 5.16. P r o j e c t i o n A i s based on t h e h i g h e s t p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n ( h i g h f e r t i l i t y , h i g h i m m i g r a t i o n ) w h i l e P r o j e c t i o n B i s t h e l o w e s t (and p r e -f e r r e d ) p r o j e c t i o n (low f e r t i l i t y , medium i m m i g r a t i o n ) . Both 136 Table 5.15 P r i m a r y and Non-Family Households, . 19'61,' 1966, 1971 ( '000) 1-9.61 • 1966 1971 HOUSEHOLDS Pr i m a r y F a m i l y 3900.3 4338.1 4893.9 Non-Family 654.4 842.6 1147.6 T o t a l 4554.7 5180.5 6041.3 NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS Households .143 .162 .189 PRIMARY FAMILY HOUSE-HOLDS F a m i l i e s .940 .958 .964 Source: T a b l e s 4.6 and 4.14. 1 Table 5.16/ F a m i l y and Household P r o j e c t i o n s t o 2001 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 F a m i l i e s P r o j e c t i o n A* 5070.7 57^2.8 6529.2 7341 .0 7972.4 8504.1 9129.2 P r o j e c t i o n B** 5070.7 5685.0 6389.O 7111.2 7662 .3 8066.O 8411 .2 P r o j e c t i o n 5070.7 5699.6 6420 .6 7158.3 7708.7 8112.5 8459 .8 Households P r o j e c t i o n A 6062 .8 7045.4 8145.9 9233.8 10007.5 10724.8 11561.0 P r o j e c t i o n B 6062 .8 6947 .8 7926.6 8896.8 9568 .6 10084.9 10553.1 P r o j e c t i o n C 6062.8 6993.8 8014.7 9012.6 9678.0 10192.4 10663.2 * P r o j e c t i o n A: High f e r t i l i t y r a t e , h i g h headship r a t e . P r o j e c t i o n B: Low f e r t i l i t y r a t e , low headship r a t e . «** P r o j e c t i o n C: Low f e r t i l i t y r a t e , h i g h headship r a t e . Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , Table c . 2 . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , T a b l e c . 3 . 138 o f t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s have i n c o r p o r a t e d t h e lower h e a d s h i p r a t e . P r o j e c t i o n C uses t h e p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n o f p r o j e c t i o n B but a p p l i e s t h e h i g h e r h e adship r a t e . I t i s chosen as a s l i g h t l y l e s s c o n s e r v a t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e t o p r o j e c t i o n B. 5.2.2 A Summary of F a m i l y and Household P r o j e c t i o n s Household and f a m i l y p r o j e c t i o n s a r e summarized i n Ta b l e s 5.17A and 5.17B :and i n F i g u r e s 5.2 and 5.3 The S.R.G. p r o j e c t i o n s of f a m i l i e s r e m a i n below S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s t o 1986 but by 2001 when the assumed h i g h f e r t i l i t y r a t e s have begun t o a f f e c t f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n numbers, the S.R.G. p r o j e c t e d f a m i l i e s a re almost as numerous as the h i g h e s t S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n . The I l l i n g p r o j e c t i o n s l i e midway between t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada h i g h and low p r o j e c -t i o n s . S.R.G. and I l l i n g h o u s e h o l d p r o j e c t i o n s , l i k e t h o s e f o r f a m i l i e s , a re i n t h e e a r l i e r y e a r s , below S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s but by 1996 t h e S.R.G. e s t i m a t e s r i s e above the h i g h e s t Stiat'istil.b's Canada p r o j e c t i o n . S.R.G. p r o j e c t i o n s of households ( T a b l e s 5-17^)- -&ve der.iv.ed r friorr; p r o j e c t i o n s of the r a t i o s of f a m i l y households t o t o t a l f a m i l i e s and non-f a m i l y households t o t o t a l f a m i l i e s (Table 5.19). The p r o -j e c t e d r a t i o s a re s i m p l y e x t r a p o l a t i o n s of observed r a t i o s f o r census y e a r s 1951 t o 1966. However, i n the f i r s t p r o j e c t i o n y e a r 1971, the r a t i o s v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y from t h o s e based on 1971 census d a t a . The a c c e p t a b i l i t y of the S.R.G. p r o j e c t i o n s of r a t i o s and c o n s e q u e n t l y o f households i s t h e r e f o r e q u e s t i o n -a b l e (see F i g u r e 5 .4) . 139 (A) Table 5.17 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d Numbers of F a m i l i e s (('000) CENSUS 1 I L L I N G 2 S.R.G. 3 STATISTICS Lowest .-CANADA.1*. H i g h e s t 1966 4,526 4,575 -1971 5,071 5,099 5,008 — — 1976 — 5,756 5,609 5,685 5,743 1980 - 6,342 - - -1981 - - 6,308 6,389 6,529 1986 - - 7,039 7,111 7,341 1991 - - 7,732 7,662 7,972 1996 - - 8,395 8,066 8,504 2001 — — 9,094 8,411 9,129 (B) A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d Numbers o f Households ('000) CENSUS 6 I L L I N G 2 S.R.G. 3 STATISTICS Lowest CANADA5 H i g h e s t 1966 5,180 5,214 1971 6,041 5,922 5,787 6,063 6,063 1976 — 6,770 6,620 6,948 7,045 1980 - 7,493 - - -1981 — — 7,613 7,927 8,146 1986 - - 8,674 8,897 9,234 1991 - - 9,718 9,569 10,008 1996 - - - 10,085 10,725 2001 — — 11,861 10,553 11,561 Source: 1 T a b l e 4.6. CuU'.'' .. 2 I l l i n g , Op. C i t . , Table3 - 4 . 3S.R.G., Op. C i t . , F i g u r e 6. ^ S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Household and F a m i l y P r o j e c ' t i o n s , T a b l e 5.6. 5 I b i d . , T a b l e 5.2 6 T a b l e 4.10. 140 T a b l e 5.18 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d Households by-Type f o r S e l e c t e d Years FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS Census 1 I l l i n g 2 S.R.G.3 Census 1 T i l i n g 2 S.R.G.3 1966 4 ,376 4 ,364 _ 804 850 _ 1971 4 ,933 4 ,915 4 ,861 . 1 , 1 0 7 1,007 926 1976 - 5,612 5,484 - 1,158 1,136 1980 - 6,215 - - 1,278 -1981 - - 6,203 - - i , 4 i o 1986 - - 6,952 - - 1,722 1991 - - 8,339 - - 2,056 2001 - - 9,048 - - 2,813 Source: 1 T a b l e 4 . 1 1 . 2 I l l i n g , Op. C i t . , T a b l e 3 - 4 . 3S.R.G., Op. C i t . , F i g u r e 6. 141 F i g u r e 5.2 F a m i l y P r o j e c t i o n s F a m i l i e s 9000h 8000 7000h 6000 5000L 1971 1981 1.991 2001 Source: T a b l e 5-17A F i g u r e 5.3' Household P r o j e c t i o n s Households 12000-11000-10000 9000-8000. 700C-600C-500C-Census .S.R.G. — S t a t i s t i c s Canada 19J1 ' 19.81 19-9.1 20.0.1 Source: T a b l e 5 . 1<7B 142 Table 5.19 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d R a t i o s FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS* NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS** F a m i l i e s Households Census 1 I l l i n g 2 S.R.G.3 Census.4. . I l l i n g . S.R.G? 1966 .966 .953 — .155 .163 — 1971 .971 .963 .974 .183 .170 .165 1976 - .974 .981 - .171 .178 1980 - .979 - - .170 -1981 - - .986 - - .192 1986 - - .990 - - .205 1991 - - • 992 - - .218 1996 - - .994 - - .231 2001 - - • 996 - - .243 Source: 1 T a b l e 4 .•13.'%ha'. 2 I l l i n g , Op. C i t ., T a b l e 3S . R . G . , Op. C i t . , F i g u r e SA.14. "Table "4 .11. C i i , ' " l g i i " " e " S . R. G . , Op. C i t . , F i g u r e * SA . 15 . * As the r a t i o o f f a m i l y h ouseholds to t o t a l f a m i l i e s ap-proaches 1.0, the number o f f a m i l i e s which a r e "doubled up" i s d e c r e a s i n g and the number of households I s , as a r e s u l t , i n c r e a s i n g . ** An i n c r e a s e i n the r a t i o o f n o n - f a m i l y households t o t o t a l h o useholds i n d i c a t e s , c o n v e r s e l y , a de c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of households which a re f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . F i g u r e 5.4 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d R a t i o s f o r S p e c i f i e d Years F a m i l y H o u s e h o l d s / F a m i l i e s 1.00 .99 .198 .97 .96 .95 .94 .93 .92 _ l L_ • •.. Census S.R.G. -i i i 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Non-Family Households/Households 26 ,24 , 22 20 ,18 ,16 ,14 12 Census S.R.G. • * • * 1 1 i_ 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Source:. T a b l e 5.19 144 S i n c e the S.R.G. p r o j e c t i o n s do not s u c c e s s f u l l y p r o j e c t f a m i l y and household numbers f o r t h e f i r s t p e r i o d of p r o j e c t i o n s (1966-1971) and s i n c e u n d e r l y i n g assumptions r e g a r d i n g f e r t i l i t y and m a r r i a g e r a t e s a r e out of l i n e w i t h most r e c e n t t r e n d s , t h e remainder of the paper w i l l f o c u s on the more r e c e n t and more d e t a i l e d S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c -t i o n s . The I l l i n g e s t i m a t e s a r e l i k e w i s e dropped i n f a v o u r o f a l o n g e r p r o j e c t i o n p e r i o d and g r e a t e r d e t a i l . 5.2.2.1 P r o j e c t e d F a m i l y and Household Trends The p r o p o r t i o n of f a m i l y heads aged under 25 y e a r s i s p r o j e c t e d t o r i s e u n t i l 1986 t o 7 per cent ( T a b l e 5.20). As the p o p u l a t i o n b u l g e passes out of t h i s age group, th e p r o p o r -t i o n of f a m i l y heads aged 25-54 i s e x p e c ted t o r i s e . The o l d e s t age group w i l l not be a f f e c t e d u n t i l t h e end of the p r o j e c t i o n p e r i o d (2001). The p r o p o r t i o n of household heads w i t h i n each age group e x h i b i t s a p a t t e r n s i m i l a r t o t h a t f o r f a m i l i e s (Table 5.21). P r o p o r t i o n s o f household heads i n the m i d d l e age*'1 group i s lower t h a n t h a t f o r f a m i l y heads w h i l e the youngest and o l d e s t age groups have h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s . S i n c e 1951, n o n - f a m i l y households have c o n s t i t u t e d an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l households f o r a l l age groups (T a b l e 5.22). The t r e n d i s p r o j e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e u n t i l 1981 when the p r o p o r t i o n of households which i s comprised of non-f a m i l y households aged 15-24 y e a r s i s expected t o f a l l .off s l i g h t l y . However, t o t a l n o n - f a m i l y households w i l l c o n t i n u e t o become an i n c r e a s i n g l y g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l house-h o l d s '(see F i g u r e 5 .5) . Table 5.20 P r o j e c t e d F a m i l i e s by Age Groups, P e r c e n t a g e ( P r o j e c t i o n B, Low F e r t i l i t y R a t e , Low Headship Rate) AGE 1971 .197.6 . . . 19.8.1 . . . 1986. . . . 19.9.1... 1996 2001 15-24 6.4 6.9 7.0 ,;c. .6.3 4.9 4.5 4.6 25-54 66.9 66.9 67.1 . " 68.4 70.3 71.0 69.8 55+ 26.7 26 .2 25.9 25.3 24 .8 24.5 25.6 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100 .0 100.0 100 .0 100.0 100 .0 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , Page 184. Table 5.21 P r o j e c t e d Households by Age Groups, P e r c e n t a g e ( P r o j e c t i o n B, Low F e r t i l i t y R a t e , Low Headship Rate) AGE 1971 • . . . .197.6...' 19.8.1.... 19.8.6... . 1.9.9.1.... ... .199.6.... 2.0.01 15-24- 6.9 7.6 7.8 7.1 5.6 5.2 5.3 25-54 61.0 60.5 60.2 / ' 61.1 62.7 63.0 61.7 55+ 32.1 31.8 32.0 31.9 31,8 31.8 '33.6' TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100 .0 100.0 . _100 .0 100.0 ,100 .0 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , Page 130. Table 5.22 A c t u a l and P r o j e c t e d Households by Type and Age Group, P e r c e n t a g e s PROJECTION B PROJECTION C AGE 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1976 1981 1986 P r i m a r y F a m i l y Households 1 15-24 3.9 3.4 3.8 4.5 5.8 6.3 6.5 5.9 6.5 6.7 6.2 25-54 66.4 69 .2 69.7 68.5 67.3 67.4 67.5 68.8 67.4 67.5 68.8 55+ 29.7 27.3 26.5 26 .9 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.2 26.2 25.7 25.0 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Non-Family H o u s e h o l d s 2 15-24 4.2 4.5 5.2 ' ••"8.6 11.5 11.5 12.5 10.9 13 .4 14 .0 12 .7 25-54 36.1 35.3 34.9 33/8 34.6 34.3 33.0 32.7 34.0 33.3 33.2 55+ 59.8 60.3 59.9 57.5 53.9 54 .2 54.5 56.3 52.5 52,7 54.1 TOTAL 100.0- 10.0., 0.' 100 .0 10.0,0. 100 .0 U0-Q, 0- 10,0,0 10.0-.0- 10.0 , 0 100,0. 10.0,0. A l l H o useholds 1 j 2 P r i m a r y F a m i l y Households 4.7 15-24 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.7 . 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 25-54 58.6 60 .1 59.6 57.3 54.4 53.5 ,53.2 53.9 53.4 52.9 53.7 55+ 26.2 23.7 22.6 22.5 21.7 20.8 20.4 19.8 20.7 20.2 19.5 TOTAL 88.3 ' 86.8 85.4 83.6 80.8 79.5 78.7 78.4 79.2 78.4 78.1 Non-Family Households 15-24 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.8 25-54 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.6 6 .7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 55+ 7-.0 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.3 10.9 11.6 12 .2 10.9 11.4 11.9 TOTAL 11.7 13.2 14.6 16.4 19.2 20.5 21.3 21.6; 20.8 21.6 21.9 A l l House-h o l d s i o o . o 100.0 100.0. 10.0.0 .10.0.0 :100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , Table 4 .1, T a b l e C. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , Table 4.2, Table C. F i g u r e 5.5 P r o j e c t e d R a t i o s , S t a t i s t i c s Canada F a m i l i e s : Famil-.y Hqu-seholds ... .98 .97 I .96 .95 \ 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 149 The r a t i o o f p r i m a r y f a m i l y households t o t o t a l f a m i -l i e s i s ex p e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e t o r i s e t o 1986 (Table 5.23, F i g -ure 5-5) t h e r e f o r e i n d i c a t i n g t h a t fewer f a m i l i e s a re expected t o share accommodation. The r a t i o - i s l o w e s t f o r the youngest'/age group and h i g h e s t f o r those aged 25-54 y e a r s . (Table 5 .,24a) . A l t h o u g h t h e r a t i o Qf> p r i m a r y f a m i l y households t o t o t a l h o useholds i s p r o j e c t e d t o d e c r e a s e , the r a t i o f o r t h e youngest and m i d d l e age groups does not f o l l o w such a d e f i n e d p a t t e r n ( T a b l e 5.24b). The r a t i o s f o r the youngest and o l d e s t age groups are c o n s i s t e n t l y lower w h i l e the r a t i o f o r the mid-d l e age group i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e o v e r a l l r a t i o . C o n v e r s e l y , the r a t i o o f n o n - f a m i l y households t o house-h o l d s i s ex p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e but r a t i o s f o r each age group var,y i(fcTa;b,TLe-t5 ."24c ) r.t^Ra^ti^saafie highesferf©nethe youngest and o l d e s t age groups w h i l e i n t h e 25-54 y e a r s g r o u p , the r a t i o i s l o w e s t and below t h e o v e r a l l r a t i o . However, w h i l e n o n - f a m i l y households w i l l become an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l h o u s e h o l d s , p r i m a r y f a m i l y households w i l l c o n t i n u e t o c o n s t i t u t e an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n of new hous e h o l d f o r m a t i o n (see Ta b l e 5-25). The m i d d l e age group i s t h e most i m p o r t a n t component of new p r i m a r y f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n , c o m p r i s i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y 68 per cent of new f a m i l y households t o 1981 and jumping t o almost 80 per cent between I98I and 1986. The over 55 year age group i s exp e c t e d t o c o n t r i b u t e the l a r g e s t share of n o n - f a m i l y house-h o l d f o r m a t i o n s . Non-r-f a m i l y household f o r m a t i o n i n the 198l-1986 p e r i o d i s expected t o i n c l u d e r e l a t i v e l y f.ew households - w i t h heads aged 15-25 y e a r s . 150 T a b l e 5.23 R a t i o s o f Households by Type t o F a m i l y and Household S t o c k s ( P r o j e c t i o n s B and C) PRIMARY FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS NON-EAMILY HOUSEHOLDS PRIMARY FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL FAMILIES" B C ' TOTAL' HOUSEHOLDS: B C '(TOTAL"" HOUSEHOLDS B C 1971 1976 1981 1986 .966 .966 .972 .972 .977 .979 .982 .985 .192 .192 .205 .208 .213 .216 .216 .219 .808 .808 .795 .792 .787 .784 .784 .781 Source: T a b l e 5-22. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Op. C i t . , Pages 130 and 184. 151 T a b l e 5.24 R a t i o s of Households by Type t o F a m i l y and Household S t o c k s , by Age ( P r o j e c t i o n B) AGE 1971 1976 1981 1986 (a) P r i m a r y F a m i l y Households: f a m i l i e s f o r each aj ge group 15-24 .877 .890 .910 .923 25-54 .973 .979 .984 .988 .981 55+ . -971 .975 .979 TOTAL .966 .971 .977 .982 (b) P r i m a r y F a m i l y Households: households f o r each , age group 15-24 .679 .684 .658 .664 25-54 .891 .885 .883 .884 55+ .677 .656 .637 .619 TOTAL -.808 .795 .787 .784 (c) Non-Family Households: households f o r each age group 15-24 .321 .316 .342 .336 25-54 .109 .1115 .117 .116 55+ .323 .344 .363 .381 TOTAL .192 . 205 .213 .216 Source: T a b l e 5-22. S t a t i s t i c s Canada , Op. C i t . , Pages 130 and 184. Table 5.25 P r o j e c t e d I n c r e a s e s i n Households by Type and Age P R O J E C T I O N P R O J T ,E C T I 0 N C AGE 1971 ' 000 1976 % 1976 - 1981 '000 % 1981 '000 - 1986 1971 - 1976 '000 % 1976 -.1981 ' 000 % 1981 '000 - 1986 P r i m a r y F a m i l y Households 15-24 25-54 55+ TOTAL 66.4 425.5 134 .1 625.0 10 .6 68.0 21.5 100 . 0 Non-Family Households 50.3 17.8 74.6 26.4 158.0 55.9 282.9 100.0 15-24 25-54 55+ TOTAL 27.5 H . 3 79.9 32.9 135.1 55.7 242.5 100.0 A l l Households Fault-i l y 625.0 72.0 Non-F a m i l y 2 4 2 . 5 28.0 TOTALl 867.5 100.0 57.7 496.0 167 .5 721.1 8.0 68.8 23.2 100.0 7 21.1 71.8 282.9 28.2 1004.0 100.0 8.4 588.8 144.0 741.3 -1.0 73.5 166.3 238.8 238.8 980.1 1.1 79.4 19.4 100.0 -0.4 30.8 69.6 100.0 741.3 75; 6 24.4 100.0 75'il 11.7 434.2 .67.5 133.-65 20.8 642.9 100.0 61.0 21.2 90.0 31.7 135.3 47.1 287.2 100.0 642.9 69.I 287.2 30.9 930.1 100.0 :65v0 -.8.7 514.3 68.9 16 7//5 5 22.4 746.7 100.0 48.3 84.0 151.4 283.6 17 .0 29.6 53.4 100.0 746.7 72.5 283.6 27.5 1030.3 100.0 ' 13.4 601.7 144.5 759.7 7.9 80 .0 157.7 245.8 245.8 1005.5 1.8 79.2 19 .0 100.0 3.2 32.5 64.2 100.0 759.7 75.6 24.4 100.0 Source: C a l c u l a t i o n s f o r Table 5.22. 153 5.2 I m p l i c a t i o n s o f F a m i l y arid Household P r o j e c t i o n s f o r t h e Housing Stock The i n c r e a s e s i n t o t a l households and t h e p r o j e c t e d changes i n the c o m p o s i t i o n of. the household s t o c k have i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the f u t u r e h o u s i n g s t o c k . An a b s o l u t e i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g demand r e s u l t i n g from a l a r g e r h o u s e h o l d s t o c k can be s a t i s f i e d by s i m p l y i n c r e a s i n g t h e hous-i n g s t o c k by an a p p r o p r i a t e number of u n i t s . However, when a s h i f t i n t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f household s t o c k o c c u r s s i m u l t a n -e o u s l y w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l h o u s e h o l d s , a d d i t i o n s t o t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k o p t i m a l l y s h o u l d a l t e r the c o m p o s i t i o n of the h o u s i n g s t o c k t o comply w i t h t h e new household s t o c k composi-t i o n . F u r t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k c o u l d o r i g i n a t e w i t h i n the e x i s t i n g s t o c k i f t h e d e s i g n and s t r u c t u r e of the e x i s t i n g u n i t s a l l o w s f o r a change of use. The i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 3 p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o t h e t y p e , s i z e and l o c a t i o n o f t h e h o u s i n g u n i t s o f households which v a r y by age and t y p e . A l t h o u g h a change of t a s t e s , new h o u s i n g s t r u c t u r e s or l i v i n g s t y l e s may a l t e r t h e i n f e r e n c e s which may be drawn from today's t r e n d s of h o u s i n g consumption, such changes are u n c e r t a i n t i e s and t o a v o i d f u r -t h e r c o m p l e x i t i e s are not c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s paper. By d e f i n i t i o n , the n o n - f a m i l y households of t h e S t a t i s -t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s i n c l u d e secondary f a m i l i e s . However, the number a c t u a l l y c o n t a i n i n g secondary f a m i l i e s i s v e r y low (39,600 or 3 per c e n t ) . c T h e r e f o r e , i f the c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s o f t h e census n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d a r e a p p l i e d t o t h e non-f a m i l y households of t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s , 97 per cent w i l l be 154 c o r r e c t l y r e p r e s e n t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , the r e m a i n i n g 3 per cent of t h e households which c o n t a i n f a m i l i e s whose heads are not a l s o t h e head of the household a r e l i k e l y t o share n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; f o r example, the tendency t o r e n t r a t h e r t h a n own. I n 1971, 60 per cent o f the t o t a l h o u s i n g s t o c k was comprised of s i n g l e detached h o u s i n g w h i l e apartments and s i n g l e a t t a c h e d u n i t s c o n t r i b u t e d 28 and 11 per cent r e s p e c t -i v e l y . The households o c c u p y i n g t h e s e u n i t s were comprised of 8 l per cent f a m i l y households and 19 per cent n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . By 1986, t h e s e p r o p o r t i o n s a re p r o j e c t e d t o change to 78 and 22 per cent r e s p e c t i v e l y . A l s o , as p r e v i o u s l y n o t e d , the age d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h i n each household type i s v a r i a b l e a c c o r d i n g t o b o t h t h e movement o f t h e f i v e - y e a r c o h o r t s a l o n g t h e age pyramid and t r e n d s i n m a r r i a g e s and d i v o r c e s ( t h a t i s , net f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n ) . The p r o j e c t i o n s , t h e r e f o r e , p o i n t t o the growing importance of n o n - f a m i l y h o u s i n g and t h e need f o r a d a p t a b i l i t y of h o u s i n g u n i t s t o d i f f e r e n t age groups. I n 1971, the average s i z e o f t h e f a m i l y household was 4.0 persons w h i l e the n o n - f a m i l y household averaged 1.4 p e r -sons ( T a b l e 41'. 15))... F u r t h e r m o r e , 73 per cent o f the n o n - f a m i l y households c o n s i s t e d o f o n l y one p e r s o n . P r o j e c t i o n s f o r i n c r e a s i n g proportions?.©!" n o n - f a m i l y households i m p l y a need f o r i n c r e a s i n g numbers of s m a l l n o n - f a m i l y h o u s i n g u n i t s . Chapter 4 r e v e a l e d t h a t a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f non-f a m i l y households l o c a t e I n urban a r e a s (83 per c e n t ) t h a n do f a m i l y households (77 per c e n t ) . The urban n o n - f a m i l y house-h o l d s a l s o t e n d t o c o n c e n t r a t e i n c e n t r a l c i t y l o c a t i o n s w h i l e 155 h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s of f a m i l y households l o c a t e i n t h e suburban a r e a s . T a b l e 5.26 i l l u s t r a t e s t he f a m i l y / n o n - f a m i l y d i s t r i -b u t i o n among households f o r m e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver i n 1971. The C i t y o f Vancouver, which i n c l u d e s t h e c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t has t h e highest, p r o p o r t i o n -of n o n - f a m i l y households (.36.1 per c e n t ) w h i l e Richmond, D e l t a and t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y of N o r t h Vancouver, t h e suburban are a s of m e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver c o n s i s t p r i m a r i l y o f f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . W h i l e one p e r s o n households account f o r o n l y 5-10 per cent of t o t a l households i n t h e s e a r e a s , i n a r e a s such as Vancouver, New W e s t m i n s t e r , and t h e c i t y o f N o r t h Vancouver, they c o n s t i t u t e over 20 per cent of the household s t o c k . Two p e r s o n households te n d t o be more e q u a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d but oc c u r I n h i g h e s t p r o p o r t i o n s i n t he same t h r e e a r e a s as d i d s i n g l e h o u s e h o l d s . Canadian and Vancouver d a t a thus e x h i b i t t r e n d s t o g r e a t e r c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f p o p u l a t i o n i n urban are a s and a p r e -f e r e n c e of n o n - f a m i l y and s m a l l households f o r c e n t r a l urban a r e a s . R e c a l l , however, t h a t t h e American e x p e r i e n c e demons s t r a t e d new t r e n d s t o i n c r e a s i n g non-metro p o p u l a t i o n s . The p o s s i b i l i t y of a r e v e r s a l i n l o c a t i o n a l t r e n d s s h o u l d not be o v e r l o o k e d and c a r e not t o o v e r b u i l d i n one l o c a t i o n s h o u l d be e x e r c i s e d . I n 1971, o n l y iH per cent of households w i t h heads aged under 25 y e a r s were owners w h i l e 6 l and 70 per cent o f the m i d d l e age b r a c k e t and over 55 y e a r s age g r o u p s r e s p e c t i v e l y owned t h e i r d w e l l i n g s . I n t h e same y e a r , 62.8 per cent of th.e younger heusefedMifarift o n l y 2*6 a'ri'dc&S3p£r .cent o f the m i d d l e and -.older aged householidsuo'.cfcvupied 'apartments^Chapter 3). S i n c e Table 5.26 Household C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by A r e a , Census M e t r o p o l i t a n Area o f Vancouver, 1971 NORTH NORTH VAN. VAN. VAN. WEST RICH- NEW CITY . CITY . .  MU.N... . . VAN... . . MO.ND. . . DELTA . SURREY . BURNABY WEST. Households 153,415 11,515 15,635 11,780 16,960 12,070 26,975 38,685 15,465 F a m i l y ( % ) 63.9 73.2 91.8 79.4 90.3 92.2 87.8 83.0 66.1 Non-Family(%) 36.1 26.8 8.2 20.6 9.7 7.8 12 .2 17 .0 33.9 Average S i z e 2.7 2.7 3.7 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.8 1 person(/0 27,3 20.3 5.6 16.6 6.9 6.0 9.5 12 .4 27 .0 2 p e r s o n s ( % ) 32.0 34.6 20.9 30.0 22.8 21.1 25.5 29.9 34.6 3 p e r s o n s ( % ) 14 .2 17 .4 18.8 15.1 18.9 17.5 16 .7 18.8 15.2 4-5 .persons{%) 19 .2 21.9 44.0 30.3 38.9 42 . 1 34.5 30.3 17.3 6-9 p e r s o n s ( % ) 6.7 5.4 10.4 7.7 12.0 12.8 13.1 8.2 5.3 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census o f Canada 1971, cat.no.95-728 . 157 households w i t h heads aged under 25 y e a r s a r e expected t o r i s e u n t i l 1981 s m a l l e r d w e l l i n g u n i t s o f apartment s t y l e and non-ownership t e n u r e w i l l c o n t i n u e t o form a l a r g e p o r t i o n o f hous-i n g demand. However, s i n c e the age d i s t r i b u t i o n s w i t h house-h o l d t y p e i s expected t o v a r y , t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k s h o u l d be f l e x i b l e enough w i t h r e s p e c t t o t y p e and t e n u r e t o accommodate the v a r i a t i o n s . 5 .3 Changing t h e Assumptions Whereas t h e S.R.G. and I l l i n g p r o j e c t i o n s can now be t e s t e d a g a i n s t a c t u a l d a t a , t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r e v a l u a t i i n g S t a t i s t i c s Canada r e s u l t s w i l l not a r i s e u n t i l 1976 census d a t a i s a v a i l a b l e . However, u n t i l t h e n , a comparison of t h e assumptions u n d e r l y i n g the p r o j e c t i o n s w i t h r e c e n t V i t a l S t a -t i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l s e r v e as an i n t e r i m check o f the v a l i d i t y o f t h e v a r i o u s p r o j e c t i o n s . V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s d a t a since , .1971 i n d i c a t e t h a t even the p r o j e c t i o n s founded on 1971 d a t a c o u l d p r o f i t from a r e v i -s i o n o f some o f t h e u n d e r l y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s . The b a s i c f e r t i -l i t y , m o r t a l i t y and i m m i g r a t i o n assumptions s t i l l appear t o be v a l i d . However, i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d s t o l a t e r m a r r i a g e s and l a t e r motherhood as w e l l as a d r a m a t i c i n c r e a s e i n d i v o r c e s i m p l y t h a t s h i f t s i n t h e a g e - m a r i t a l s t a t u s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n a r e o c c u r r i n g . The p r o p o r t i o n s of women aged 20-24 b e a r i n g t h e i r f i r s t c h i l d d e c r e a s e d by o n l y 1 per cent between 1966 and 1971 from 47.3 t o 4 6 . 2 , w h i l e between 1971 and 1974, t h e - p r o -p o r t i o n f e l l s h a r p l y t o 4 l . 6 per c e n t . A l e s s d r a s t i c d e c l i n e 158 o c c u r r e d f o r women aged 15-19 y e a r s . On th e o t h e r hand, t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women aged 25-29 y e a r s and b e a r i n g t h e i r f i r s t c h i l d i n c r e a s e d from 17.4 per cent i n 1966 t o 23.2 per cent i n 1971 and t h e n 28.5 per cent i n 1974 (Table 5.27). Postponement of th e f i r s t - c h i l d has been o c c u r r i n g s i m u l t a n e o u s l y w i t h a s h i f t i n g of m a r r i a g e t o an o l d e r age. I n Chapter 4 i t was noted t h a t m a r r i a g e r a t e s f o r males aged 20-29 y e a r s had dropped between 1966 and 1971 w h i l e f o r tho s e aged 30 and over the m a r r i a g e r a t e has i n c r e a s e d . S i m i l a r l y , a drop i n m a r r i a g e r a t e s has o c c u r r e d f o r females aged 20-24 ye a r s w h i l e m a r r i a g e s of females aged over 25 y e a r s has i n -c r e a s e d . An i n c r e a s e i n m a r r i a g e r a t e s i n the o l d e r age groups has o c c u r r e d s i n c e 1968, p r o b a b l y as a r e s u l t of new d i v o r c e l e g i s l a t i o n . The D i v o r c e A c t 1 0 t r a n s f e r r e d the a u t h o r i t y f o r the d i s s o l u t i o n of m a r r i a g e s from t h e Senate t o th e p r o v i n c i a l c o u r t s and as w e l l expanded t h e grounds on which e i t h e r a husband or w i f e c o u l d f i l e f o r a d i v o r c e , t h e r e b y b o t h s h o r t e n -i n g and f a c i l i t a t i n g d i v o r c e p r o c e d u r e s . As a r e s u l t , d i v o r c e s have i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y and t h e r e a r e i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t r e m a r r i a g e s have become more common. P r i o r t o 1968, the d i -v o r c e r a t e had r i s e n s l o w l y t o 54.8 d i v o r c e s per 100,000 popu-l a t i o n . I n 1969, the r a t e jumped t o 124 . 2 and by 1974 had rea c h e d 200.6 ( T a b l e 4 .7) . The c u r r e n t d i v o r c e l e g i s l a t i o n a l l o w s d i v o r c e on th e grounds of a t l e a s t t h r e e y e a r s o f s e p a r -a t i o n i f no'-'.other r e a s o n s a re a p p l i c a b l e . I f , as i s f r e q u e n t l y s u g g e s t e d , " i n s t a n t d i v o r c e " were t o come i n t o e f f e c t , the surge of i n c r e a s e d d i v o r c e s c o u l d be overwhelming. Table 5.27 Percentage of 1st B i r t h s by Age Group::of Mother , 1966-1974 1966 1967 .1968 1969 , 1970 1971 . 1972... . .1973 1974 Under 15 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 .• 20.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 15-19 27 .2 25.8 25.0 24 .5 24 .7 23 .4 23.5 22.9 21.5 20-24 47.3 48.3 48.4 47 .7 46.8 46.2 43.3 41.9 41.6 25-29 17 .4 18 .1 19.1 20 .5 21.3 23.2 25.5 27 .3 28.5 30-34 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.9 6.5 35-39 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 40-44 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 45-49 - - - - - - - - -50+ - - - - - - - -TOTAL BIRTHS 123,754 128,736 132,88! 3 137,433 143,577 142,008 140,107 143,730 147,433 Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , cat.no.84 -201 , Table 8 (1966-1970), and Tabl e 7 (1971-19747^ 160 5 .4 C o n c l u s i o n s T h e a n a l y s e s I n d i c a t e t h a t t h e p r o j e c t i o n s b y S t a t i s -t i c s C a n a d a a r e m o s t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e C a n a d i a n p o p u l a t i o n t o d a t e . H o w e v e r , e v e n t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s h a v e b e c o m e s o m e -w h a t o u t - o f - d a t e a s a r e s u l t o f r e c e n t c h a n g e s i n m a r r i a g e , d i v o r c e a n d c h i l d b e a r i n g p a t t e r n s . W h e r e a s t h e p r o j e c t i o n s i n d i c a t e t h a t n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s w i l l b e c o m e a n i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l h o u s e h o l d s t o c k , t h e y d o n o t e s t i m a t e t h a t t h e n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d w i l l c o n s t i t u t e a g r o w i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n . T h e i m p l i c a t i o n f o r h o u s i n g i s t h u s t h a t c o n s t r u c t i o n w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d o r i e n t e d H o w e v e r , i f t h e t r e n d s t o l a t e r m a r r i a g e s , p o s t p o n e d c h i l d -b e a r i n g a n d i n c r e a s e d d i v o r c e s d o c o n t i n u e , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n w h i c h i s n o n - f a m i l y c o u l d w e l l i n c r e a s e w h i l e f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d p r o p o r t i o n s w o u l d d e c l i n e . U n d e r t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n w o u l d n e e d t o b e c o m e m o r e a n d m o r e o r i e n t e d t o n o n - f a m i l y t y p e h o u s i n g . T h u s , t h e s u s p i c i o n s o f t h e f i r s t c h a p t e r r e g a r d i n g t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k c o u l d b e w e l l - f o u n d e d i f h o u s i n g p o l i c y p l a c e s r e l i a n c e o n t h e s e o r o t h e r h o u s e h o l d p r o j e c t i o n s a n d t h u s d o e s n o t f o r e s e e a n i n c r e a s i n g d e m a n d f o r n o n - f a m i l y h o u s i n g . I n d e e d , t h e g o v e r n m e n t h o u s i n g p o l i c y d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r 2 s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e g r o w i n g i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r h a s n o t y e t b e e n t r u l y r e c o g n i z e d . T h e s e t h r e e d e v e l o p m e n t s — p o s t p o n e d m o t h e r h o o d , l a t e r m a r r i a g e s a n d i n c r e a s e d d i v o r c e s — h a v e b e c o m e i n c r e a s i n g l y e v i -d e n t s i n c e 1971. T h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e t r e n d s w o u l d r e n d e r h o u s e h o l d and f a m i l y p r o j e c t i o n s I n v a l i d as p r o b a b i l i t i e s of b e i n g " s i n g l e " , "ever m a r r i e d spouse p r e s e n t " , or "ever m a r r i e d spouse a b s e n t " , would r e q u i r e r e v i s i o n s . P r o -p o r t i o n s o f s i n g l e females i n the lower t w e n t i e s and males aged 20-30 would i n c r e a s e . F a m i l i e s w i t h heads i n the twen-t i e s and e a r l y t h i r t i e s would be s m a l l e r as a r e s u l t o f p o s t -poned c h i l d b e a r i n g . F i n a l l y , as d i v o r c e r a t e s c o n t i n u e d t o i n c r e a s e , the p r o p o r t i o n o f s i n g l e i n d i v i d u a l s ( e v e r m a r r i e d spouse a b s e n t ) would i n c r e a s e . I n summary, n o n - f a m i l y house-h o l d s would i n c r e a s e i n the younger age group-and a t ages where d i v o r c e s most commonly oc c u r ( l a t e t h i r t i e s ) . F a m i l y households would become more c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h e m i d d l e years: 162 FOOTNOTES 1W.M. I l l i n g , Populat ion, Family, Household and Labour  Force Growth to 1 9 8 0 , (.Ottawa, Queen's P r i n t e r , 1 9 7 0 ) . 2Systems Research Group, Canadian Population Projec - t ions to the Year 2 0 0 0 , (Toronto, S . R . G . , 1 9 7 0 ) . ^Stat is t ics Canada, Population Project ions for  Canada and the Provinces 1 9 7 2 - 2 0 0 1 , cat .no.91 -514 (occasional) (Ottawa, Information Canada, 1 9 7 4 ) . A l s o , I b i d . , Household  and Family Project ions for Canada and the Provinces to 2 0 0 1 , c a t . n o . 9 1 - 5 1 7 (occasional ) , (Ottawa, Information Canada, 1975) • "National Energy Board, Energy Supply and Demand and  Export Demand for Canadian Energy, 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 9 0 (Ottawa, Queen's P r i n t e r , 1969). 5See R. 'd'ziess.a.t,, " In terpre ta t ion des v a r i a t i o n s a court terme du taux de n a t a l i t e " Populat ion , j a n v i e r - f e " v r i e r , 1 9 6 9 , n ° . l , pp. 4 7 - 5 6 ; J . Legare and J . Hemipin, "Recent Trends i n Canadian F e r t i l i t y " , The Canadian Review of Socio-logy and Anthropology, V o l . 9 , N o .2, May 1 9 7 1 , pp. 106-119. N. Ryder and C. Westoff, " F e r t i l i t y Planning Status: United States 1 9 6 5 , Demography, V o l . 6 , N o .4, 1 9 6 9 , pp. 4 3 5 - 4 4 4 . Cited i n S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Population Project ions for Canada  and the Provinces . 6 "Flow of Immigrants May be Stemmed", The Province , Saturday, August 2 1 , 197 6, p . 6. 7 F o r example, deaths of married persons or d i v o r -ces do notrne:c:.e:s;sarIlllyy involve the complete d i s s o l u t i o n of f a m i l i e s . However, using the v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s approach, e i ther occurrence would const i tute one family d i s s o l u t i o n . 8 Divorce A c t , S . C . 1 9 6 7 - 6 8 , c. 24. 9 S . R . G . , Canada: Family , Household and HousingsProjec-t ions to the Year 2000 , (Toronto, S . R . G . , 1 9 7 0 ) , p . " 1 1 . ' 1 " D i v o r c e Act , o p . c i t . Chapter 6 CONCLUSIONS T h i s paper has been devoted t o t e s t i n g the h y p o t h e s i s t h a t our f u t u r e h o u s i n g s t o c k w i l l be i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r use by f u t u r e p o p u l a t i o n s i f c u r r e n t t r e n d s and p o l i c i e s c o n t i n u e unchanged. H e r e t o f o r e , a major c o n c e r n of h o u s i n g a d m i n i s t r a -t o r s has been th e p r o d u c t i o n of s u f f i c i e n t numbers of d w e l l -i n g u n i t s . The c o n c e r n here l i e s w i t h the c o m p o s i t i o n of the p r o d u c t i o n , t h a t i s , t h e t y p e s , s i z e s , t e n u r e s and l o c a t i o n s o f the a d d i t i o n s t o the h o u s i n g s t o c k and, as w e l l , t h e f l e x i -b i l i t y of the s t o c k . 6 .1 The Problem The r e v i e w of government h o u s i n g p o l i c y i n Chapter 2 r e v e a l e d an u n d e n i a b l e b i a s towards home-ownership. A s s i s t a n c e programmes at b o t h the f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l s o f government p r o v i d e encouragement t o households t o own r a t h e r t h a n r e n t w h i l e the advantages of home-ownership under the p r e s e n t f e d e r a l income t a x system r e i n f o r c e home-ownership i n c e n t i v e s . At t h e same t i m e , t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of r e n t c o n t r o l i n many p r o v i n c e s , has e f f e c t i v e l y d i s c o u r a g e d i n v e s t -ment w i t h i n t h e r e n t a l s e c t o r , e s p e c i a l l y i n the c e n t r a l urban l o c a t i o n s where p o t e n t i a l b u i l d e r s , f a c e d w i t h c o n t r o l l e d f u t u r e incomes cannot s u c c e s s f u l l y b i d f o r l a n d . The r e s u l t has been a l a r g e - s c a l e s h i f t i n b o t h demand and s u p p l y w i t h i n t h e h o u s i n g market t o the home-ownership s e c t o r . F u r t h e r 163 164 a g g r e v a t i o n t o t h e h o u s i n g market i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o l o c a l i n f l u e n c e s . Down-zonings of c e n t r a l c i t y areas and s t r o n g c i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n t o h i g h d e n s i t y b u i l d i n g has r e d u c e d b o t h the p o s s i b i l i t y and p r o f i t a b i l i t y of r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g w i t h i n t h e c e n t r a l c i t y a r e a s . Lengthy development a p p r o v a l processes,- t e n d t o p r o l o n g t h e l a g i n the response o f s u p p l y t o demand, t h e r e b y I n c r e a s i n g the d i f f i c u l t y o f c o r r e c t i n g d e f i c i e n c i e s which may e x i s t i n any h o u s i n g submarket. I t s h o u l d be n o t e d , however, t h a t t h e s e d e l a y s might i r o n i c a l l y consume j u s t enough time t o a v o i d an o v e r - r e s p o n s e o f s u p p l y t o an i n c r e a s e d demand. Wh i l e t h e s e exogenous f a c t o r s appear t o be s l a n t i n g p r o d u c t i o n t o n o n - c e n t r a l , home-ownership d w e l l i n g u n i t s , our r e v i s e d h o usehold p r o j e c t i o n s i n d i c a t e t h a t f u t u r e h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s may w e l l be d i f f e r e n t l y s t r u c t u r e d . S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s show an i n c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n o f non-f a m i l y households from 19-2 per cent i n 1971 t o 21.6 per cent i n 1986. However, i f the t r e n d s towards l a t e r m a r r i a g e s , i n c r e a s e d d i v o r c e s and s h o r t e r d u r a t i o n s of m a r r i a g e s (which end i n d i v o r c e ) c o n t i n u e as they have s i n c e 1971, n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n may r e a c h f a r h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s t h a n t h o s e expected i n t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada p r o j e c t i o n s . F u r t h e r -more, by 1986 t h e upper h a l f of the baby-boom p o p u l a t i o n b u l g e w i l l be aged between 25 and 40 y e a r s , t h o s e y e a r s t o which t h e s e demographic developments are p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t . I t i s not w i t h i n t h e scope of t h i s paper t o make spe-c i f i c p r o j e c t i o n s o f n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s . The i n t e n t i s t o demonstrate the growing importance of the n o n - f a m i l y s e c t o r , 165 p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e p a s t f e w y e a r s . I t i s e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t -a n t t o n o t e t h a t f o r e a c h p o s t p o n e d m a r r i a g e a n d e a c h d i v o r c e , t w o n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s w i l l b e f o r m e d w h e r e o n e f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d w o u l d o t h e r w i s e e x i s t ( p r o v i d i n g - " d o u b l i n g d o e s n o t o c c u r ) . T h u s , t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e m a r r i a g e a n d d i v o r c e t r e n d s i s a c r i t i c a l e l e m e n t o f t h e b u i l d i n g o f t h e n o n - f a m i l y s e c t o r . C h a p t e r 3 i l l u s t r a t e d h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f n o n -f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s a n d h o u s e h o l d s o f d i f f e r e n t a g e s . A s s u m i n g t h a t h o u s i n g t a s t e s d o n o t c h a n g e d r a s t i c a l l y i n t h e n e x t t w o o r t h r e e d e c a d e s , i n c r e a s i n g n u m b e r s o f n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s i m p l y a n e e d f o r s m a l l e r , m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g w i t h c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s . S i n c e n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s a r e g e n e r a l l y l e s s p r e -p a r e d t o b e b u r d e n e d w i t h t h e m a i n t e n a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g , t h e d e m a n d w h i c h o r I g i n a t e s f r o m t h e s e h o u s e h o l d s w i l l b e l a r g e l y f o r m u l t i p l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g . 6 . 2 T h e I m p l i c a t i o n s I f g o v e r n m e n t s c o n t i n u e t o m a k e h o m e - o w n e r s h i p e c o n o m i c -a l l y a d v a n t a g e o u s b y o f f e r i n g h o m e - o w n e r s h i p a s s i s t a n c e a n d p r e f e r e n t i a l t a x t r e a t m e n t s , h o u s e h o l d s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o d i r e c t t h e i r c o n s u m p t i o n t o w a r d t h e h o m e - o w n e r s h i p s e c t o r . T h e b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y m e a n w h i l e w i l l r e s p o n d t o t h e d e m a n d f o r o w n e r s h i p u n i t s , n o t s o l e l y b e c a u s e o f t h e h i g h . p r i c e s r e s u l t -i n g f r o m i n c r e a s e d d e m a n d , b u t a l s o b e c a u s e o f t h e l o w p r o f i t -a b i l i t y o f b u i l d i n g r e n t a l a c c o m m o d a t i o n u n d e r r e n t c o n t r o l a n d t h e p r e s e n t i n c o m e t a x l e g i s l a t i o n . L o w v a c a n c y r a t e s I n t h e r e n t a l s e c t o r w i l l f o r c e n e w h o u s e h o l d s w h o m i g h t o r d i n -a r i l y o b t a i n r e n t a l a c c o m m o d a t i o n t o e n t e r t h e o w n e r s h i p s e c -166 t o r . The consequence of c u r r e n t government p o l i c y , t h e n , I s a demand f o r ownership h o u s i n g i n c r e a s e d by consumers who are e n t i c e d by the_ f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e - a s .well as tho.se f r u s t r a t e d by the r e n t a l s e c t o r . The consumption o f h o u s i n g t h e n , b e i n g l a r g e l y d e termined by market c o n d i t i o n s , p r i c e s and i n a d e q u a c i e s , becomes a l i e n a t e d from f u n c t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s of h o u s e h o l d s , -that i s , f r o m ^ u n i n f l u e n c e d needs or p r e f e r e n c e s o f the v a r i o u s household t y p e s . I n c r e a s e d home-ownership r e s u l t i n g from a d i s t o r t e d consumer p r e f e r e n c e or a l a c k o f a l t e r n a t i v e h o u s i n g has g r e a t e r i m p l i c a t i o n s t h a n m e r e l y a s h i f t w i t h i n t h e t e n u r e submarkets. Ownership u n i t s tend t o be l a r g e r and v e r y o f t e n the consumer i n t e n t i o n a l l y p u r chases a d w e l l i n g t o match a n t i -c i p a t e d f u t u r e needs r a t h e r t h a n c u r r e n t needs. Home-'owners who have completed payments f o r t h e i r d w e l l i n g may be r e l u c t a n t t o move from i t even though i n t h e i r o l d e r y e a r s t h e i r need f o r space i s reduced when the c h i l d r e n l e a v e home. I n such c a s e s , t h e n , home-ownership r e s u l t s i n an i n e f f i c i e n t use o f h o u s i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , an over-consumption of h o u s i n g would i n t u r n r e s u l t I n over-consumption of l a n d and energy, s i n c e a l a r g e r a r e a must be l i g h t e d and h e a t e d . S i n c e home-ownership i s f r e q u e n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g , i n c e n t i v e s t o own s e r v e a l s o as encouragement t o consume t h i s t y p e of h o u s i n g . W h i l e the u s u a l f a m i l y home may s e r v e a f a m i l y household s u i t a b l y , t h e d e s i g n of such d w e l l i n g s n e i t h e r l e n d s i t s e l f t o u s e " b y . o t h e r t y p e s of households n o r j t o c o n v e r s i o n f o r o t h e r use. 167 The government's b i a s towards home-ownership s h o u l d not be condemned merely on t h e grounds t h a t i t f a v o u r s one type of t e n u r e ; i t i s a l l t h a t i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h home-owner-s h i p — s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g , over-consumption of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , i m m o b i l i t y of h o u s e h o l d s — w h i c h r e a l l y makes the p o l i c y q u e s t i o n a b l e . There i s , however, a p o s i t i v e consequence of the f e d e r a l government's A s s i s t e d Home-Ownership Programme. An upper p r i c e l i m i t , e s t a b l i s h e d by urban a r e a , 2 has encouraged b u i l d e r s t o produce s m a l l e r u n i t s , such as townhouses i n the suburban a r e a s and v e r y s m a l l condominiums i n more c e n t r a l a r e a s . Thus, w h i l e s t i l l e n c o u r a g i n g home-ownership the p r o -gramme i s b r e a k i n g away from t h e s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g t r a d i -t i o n w i t h which home-ownership was commonly a s s o c i a t e d . 6 .3 P o l i c y Recommendations An o b v i o u s s o l u t i o n t o the p r e d i c t e d problem i s t o e l i m i n a t e the b a r r i e r s t o a smoothly o p e r a t i n g market system. I f the f o r c e s of s u p p l y and demand are p e r m i t t e d t o i n t e r a c t i n an u n d i s t o r t e d manner w i t h i n a h o u s i n g market where p r i c e s t r u l y r e f l e c t the r e a l c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n , the problems o f an under- or o v e r - u t i l i z e d h o u s i n g s t o c k j n i g h t be a v o i d e d . The e l i m i n a t i o n of b o t h d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t s u b s i d i e s t o any h o u s i n g submarket would reduce a household's demand f o r h o u s i n g t o i t s p e r c e i v e d needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . Housing p r o -d u c t i o n would t h e n respond t o changes i n the consumer's demand, and not t o the government's d e c i s i o n t o encourage home-owner-s h i p . 168 The removal of s u b s i d i e s must,oof c o u r s e , i n c l u d e the d i s c o n t i n u a t i o n o f r e n t c o n t r o l s so t h a t r e n t a l accommodation can be e c o n o m i c a l l y produced t o the e x t e n t t o which i t i s demanded. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however, r e n t c o n t r o l s a re much e a s i e r t o implement t h a n t o remove: Any s o c i e t y t h a t has o p e r a t e d a system of r e n t con-t r o l s would have so d i s t o r t e d the market f o r h o u s i n g t h a t t o suddenly a b o l i s h t h e s e c o n t r o l s would c r e a t e economic chaos. Hence, w h i l e the open market system i s t he most a p p e a l i n g i n the l o n g r u n , the o r d e r l y t r a n s i t i o n from a c o n t r o l l e d system to an open system proves t o be an e x t r e m e l y complex problem. 3 The p r e f e r e n t i a l t r e a t m e n t t o home-owners which i s ' p r o v i d e d by the t a x system might be e l i m i n a t e d by a p p l y i n g c a p i t a l g a i n s t a x t o a l l r e a l p r o p e r t y s a l e s r e g a r d l e s s o f the type of ownership, and the t a x l e v i e d on the net income o f l a n d l o r d s might be b a l a n c e d by an occupancy t a x or a t a x on imputed u n i t s f o r home-owners. The o b j e c t i v e o f many h o u s i n g a s s i s t a n c e programmes i s g i v e n as i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o h o u s i n g f o r low income h o u s e h o l d s . I f t h i s i s t r u e then the b e s t s o l u t i o n may be g e n e r a l income support or a t l e a s t a s s i s t a n c e which i s not t i e d s o l e l y t o one h o u s i n g submarket. The v a l u e of the p r o j e c t i o n s and of the a n a l y s i s o f demographic v a r i a b l e s i s not so much i n p r e d i c t i n g what w i l l o c c ur as i n s u g g e s t i n g what may happen and t h e r e f o r e what the h o u s i n g s t o c k must be p r e p a r e d t o accommodate. The f a c t i s t h a t w h i l e h o usehold s t o c k i s i n c r e a s i n g i n numbers, i t i s a l s o c hanging i n age-type c o m p o s i t i o n . The degree to* which the c o m p o s i t i o n i s changing i s l a r g e l y a f u n c t i o n of demo-g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s and whether c u r r e n t t r e n d s c o n t i n u e . Thus, i n s p i t e of the p r o j e c t i o n s made by S t a t i s t i c s Canada and 169 t h e m o d i f i c a t i o n s suggested i n t h i s paper on the b a s i s of r e c e n t demographic developments, the a c t u a l c o m p o s i t i o n of the household s t o c k i n 15 y e a r s remains an unknown. How-e v e r , i f the h o u s i n g s t o c k i s made more f l e x i b l e i n use and more d i v e r s e i n s t y l e , s i z e , t e n u r e , d e n s i t y and l o c a t i o n , s h i f t s i n the c o m p o s i t i o n of t h e household s t o c k c o u l d be more e a s i l y accommodated w i t h i n the e x i s t i n g h o u s i n g s t o c k . The chances of o v e r - u t i l i z i n g one h o u s i n g submarket w h i l e u n d e r - u t i l i z i n g a n o t h e r would be m i n i m i z e d . W h i l e i t may appear t h a t t h i s paper has been b u i l d i n g toward a recommendation of complete w i t h d r a w a l o f government i n v o l v e m e n t i n h o u s i n g , the v e r d i c t f o r government i s not q u i t e so h a r s h . The government might w e l l use i t s p o s i t i o n t o encourage f l e x i b i l i t y and d i v e r s i t y i n h o u s i n g , \espe--c i a l l y f o r c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s . The c u r r e n t government support of home-ownership s e r v e s as r e i n f o r c e m e n t t o c i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n to h i g h d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l development. I f h o u s i n g i s t o become b e t t e r matched t o i t s f u t u r e consumers th e f u r t h e r e x p a n s i o n o f s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g s u b u r b i a s does not appear to be the b e s t s o l u t i o n . O p p o s i t i o n to c e n t r a l and m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g b u i l d i n g must be c u r t a i l e d t o p e r m i t t h e development of a h o u s i n g s t o c k which o f f e r s d i v e r s i t y i n s t y l e , t e n u r e , d e n s i t y and l o c a t i o n . The r e s o u r c e s which are c u r r e n t l y a l l o c a t e d t o home-ownership would w i s e l y be r e d i r e c t e d t o the p r o v i s i o n o f i n c e n t i v e s t o h o u s i n g which would s u p p l y t h i s d i v e r s i t y as w e l l as an element of f l e x i b i l i t y f o r use by d i f f e r e n t t y p e s and s i z e s o f h o u s e h o l d s . The e l i m i n a t i o n o f u n j u s t i f i e d b e n e f i t s t o some hous-170 i n g submarkets and d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o o t h e r s , a c u r t a i l i n g o f m u n i c i p a l and c i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n t o c e n t r a l l y l o c a t e d , m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g b u i l d i n g t o g e t h e r \with-••government i n c e n t i v e s , not t o a s i n g l e h o u s i n g submarket, but t o d i v e r s i t y and f l e x i -b i l i t y o f the h o u s i n g s t o c k would t h e n p r o v i d e the c h o i c e o f h o u s i n g n e c e s s a r y f o r a h o usehold s t o c k of which t h e composi-t i o n i s e x pected t o change, and t o an e x t e n t which i s l a r g e l y unknown. 6 . 4 F u t u r e S t u d i e s Much of t h i s study i s performed at a v e r y macro s c a l e s i n c e the d a t a i s most r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e on a n a t i o n a l b a s i s . -Since' .to a 'large -extent, h o u s i n g p o l i c y o r i g i n a t e s a t the f e d e r a l • ' l e v e l , such an' approach seemed a p p r o p r i a t e _tq the._ problem. • However, s i n c e h o u s i n g markets are l o c a l i n n a t u r e , an a n a l y -s i s performed at a more m i c r o l e v e l would appear t o be the next l o g i c a l s t e p . S e c o n d l y , the problem of an a p p r o p r i a t e h o u s i n g s t o c k i s not r e l a t e d u n i q u e l y t o h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n but i s a l s o a q u e s t i o n o f the c o n s e r v a t i o n of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s — l a n d and energy m a t e r i a l s — a n d t o economic f a c t o r s such as incomes and unemployment. A s y n t h e s i s of t h e s e f a c t o r s w i t h the r e q u i r e -ments a t t r i b u t a b l e t o household f o r m a t i o n would produce a much more .compl.ete p i c t u r e of f u t u r e h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . 171 FOOTNOTES 1 I n 1971, t h e average income f o r n o n - f a m i l y house-h o l d s was o n l y $ 4 , 5 7 7 . 0 0 , w h i l e f a m i l y income average $7,037. Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census of Canada, cat.no.93-711 , T a b l e s 76 and 78. 2 I n V ancouver, t h e maximum house p r i c e which q u a l i -f i e s f o r AHOP a s s i s t a n c e i s $47,000. 3S.W. H a m i l t o n and D. B a x t e r , L a n d l o r d s and Tenants  i n Danger - Rent C o n t r o l i n Canada, (Winnipeg, A p p r a i s a l I n s t i t u t e o f Canada, 1975), p. 72. BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Books and S t u d i e s D a l e - J o h n s o n , D.T. Housing P o l i c y , Tenure C h o i c e , and t h e  Demand f o r Housing i n B r i t i s h C o lumbia, Vancouver, M.Sc. T h e s i s , U n i v e r i s i t y o f B r i t i s h C olumbia, January 1975-H a m i l t o n , S.W. and D. B a x t e r . L a n d l o r d s and Tenants i n Dan-g e r , Rent C o n t r o l I n Canada" (Winnipeg, A p p r a i s a l I n s t i -t u t e of Canada, 1975). I l l i n g , W.H. P o p u l a t i o n , F a m i l y , Household and Labour F o r c e  Growth t o 1980, (Ottawa, Queen's P r i n t e r , 1970). Rose, A. "Housing P o l i c y i n Canada 1946-1968", i n The R i g h t  t o H o u s i n g , (ed. M. W h e e l e r ) , ( M o n t r e a l , H a r v e s t House, 1969) • S m i t h , L.B. Housing i n Canada (Urban Canada, Problems and P r o s p e c t s . Research Monograph No.2), (Ottawa, CMHC, 1972). Systems R e s e a r c h Group. Canadian P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s t o the Year 2000, ( T o r o n t o , S.R.G., 1970). 2. J o u r n a l s B e a l e , C.L. " I s the R u r a l R e v i v a l R e a l ? " R e a l E s t a t e Review, V o l . 6 , No. 2.-C l a y t o n , F.A. "Income Taxes and S u b s i d i e s t o Home-Owners and R e n t e r s : A Comparison of_U._S^._and Canadian E x p e r i e n c e " , Canadian Tax J o u r n a l , V o l . 2 2 , No . 3 . "Those M i s s i n g B a b i e s " . Time Magazine, September 6, 1974, Page 51. 3 . Newspapers F i n a n c i a l P o s t , p e r s o n a l c o r r e s p o n d e n c e , August 16, 1976. "Flow of Immigrants May be Stemmed", The P r o v i n c e , S a t u r d a y , August 21, 1976. 172 173 4 . Government PublicatIons Central Mortgage and Housing Corporat ion. Annual Report 1970, (Ottawa, 1970). Annual Report 1971, (Ottawa, 1971). Annual Report 1972, (Ottawa, 1972). Annual Report 1973, (Ottawa, 1973). Annual Report 1974, (Ottawa, 1974). Annual Report 197 5, (Ottawa, 1975). Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1975 (Ottawa, 1975). Department of Manpower and Immigration. Immigration S t a t i s -t i c s , 1966-1974. . Immigration and Population S t a t i s t i c s , (Canadian Immigration and Population Study), ca t .no . MP23-37-1974-3 (Ottawa, Information Canada, 1974). National Energy Board, Energy Supply and Demand and Export  Demand for Canadian Energy, 1966" 1970 (Ottawa, Queen's P r i n t e r , 1969). Census of Canada 1956 Census of Canada 1961 Census of Canada 1966 Census of Canada 1971 . Dic t ionary of the 1971 Census Terms, (December 1972), cat .no.12-540. . Household and Family Project ions for Canada and the Provinces to 2001, cat .no.91-512, Occasional , (Ottawa, Information Canada, 1975). . Population Project ions for Canada and the Provinces 1972-2001, cat .no.91-517, Occasional , (Ottawa, Information Canada, 1974). . V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1970-1974. 174 5. L e g i s l a t i o n D i v o r c e A c t . S t a t u t e s o f C a n a d a 1967-68, c . 2 4 . L a n d l o r d a n d T e n a n t A c t . S t a t u t e s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 1974, c . 1 0 9 . N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t . R e v i s e d S t a t u t e s o f C a n a d a , N - 1 0 . O r d e r - i n - C o u n c i l , P . C . 4 6 l 6 , (1940). 6. O t h e r F a c u l t y o f C o m m e r c e a n d B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , - U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , R e a l ' E s t a t e F i n a n c e , ( c o u r s e n o t e s ) , '(Vancouver , U U * B v C , ,11972) . 

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