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Canadian technology and derived import demand and export supply functions Kohli, Ulrich Johan Robert 1975-12-31

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CANADIAN TECHNOLOGY AND DERIVED IMPORT DEMAND AND EXPORT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS by  ULRICH JOHAN ROBERT KOHLI Lie.  e s S c . E c o n . , U n i v e r s i t e de L a u s a n n e , M . A . , Q u e e n ' s U n i v e r s i t y , 1972  1971  A T H E S I S SUBMITTED I N P A R T I A L FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY  in  the Department  of  ECONOMICS  We a c c e p t  this  t h e s i s as conforming to  the  required  THE U N I V E R S I T Y OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA October,  1975  standard  In  presenting  this  an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e the I  Library  further  for  agree  scholarly  by h i s of  shall  this  written  thesis  in p a r t i a l  fulfilment  of  at  University  of  Columbia,  make  the it  that permission  p u r p o s e s may  representatives. thesis  freely  for  available for  financial  permission.  Department  of  The U n i v e r s i t y  £ C ^ O C * n n i C-5>  of  British  2075 Wesbrook P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V 6 T 1W5  by  the  is understood gain  Columbia  for  extensive  be g r a n t e d  It  British  shall  requirements  reference copying of  Head o f  that  not  the  I  agree  and  be a l l o w e d  that  study.  this  thesis  my D e p a r t m e n t  copying or  for  or  publication  without  my  - ii ABSTRACT  In  this  t h e s i s we m o d e l t h e s t r u c t u r e  t r a d e and i n v e s t i g a t e other  inputs  the r e l a t i o n s h i p  or o u t p u t s .  e x p o r t demand f u n c t i o n s ,  variable  a vector  of  inputs  fixed  i n t o a model of inputs input  Rather than estimate i s o l a t e d import  and  and o u t p u t s  factor  profit  function  labour,  (translog)  technology.  integrated domestic  t a x a t i o n on  changes i n i n v e n t o r i e s , The m o d e l a l s o  the and  allows multi-  t h e o r y we s p e c i f y a v a r i a b l e  which i s a second order  The d e r i v e d import  approximation  demand a n d e x p o r t  supply  are then estimated simultaneously w i t h the equations This treatment  theoretical  the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s of  t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of or  outputs.  of  imports^and  imports  substitution  and e x p o r t s ,  among i m p o r t s ,  T h u s we f o u n d t h a t  but  a l s o found t h a t  determines  e x p o r t s and i n v e s t m e n t  of  exports,  a p p e a r e d t h a t t h e y a r e somewhat h i g h e r  goods  intensive.  i m p o r t s a r e c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e and e x p o r t s  R e g a r d i n g t h e own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s  thought.  also  estimates  e x p o r t s , and d o m e s t i c  intensive. it  of  exports  framework y i e l d s not o n l y  a r e c o m p l e m e n t s i n p r o d u c t i o n and t h a t b o t h a r e i m p o r t  usually  of  of p r i c e s and  with other  and i n d i r e c t  side).  Applying duality  within a consistent  inputs  to a vector  I m p o r t s and e x p o r t s a r e t h u s  (capital,  the remaining v a r i a b l e s .  of  decisions  augmenting t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i n a m u l t i - i n p u t  framework.  functions  and e x p o r t  which choose the q u a n t i t i e s  consumption, investment,  output  to t h i s  import  subject  government p u r c h a s e s on t h e o u t p u t for  foreign and  the Canadian technology together  and o u t p u t s side;  among i m p o r t s ,  we a s s u m e t h a t  inputs.  Canadian  exports,  a r e made b y p r o f i t m a x i m i z i n g f i r m s their  of  labour  both imports than i t  We  was  and  - iii  A major of  imports  part  of  the  and e x p o r t s d a t a .  thesis  1972.  exports.  the  Both are disaggregated  c o m p o n e n t s and p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y to  i s devoted to  construction  into  four  indices are calculated for  These i n d i c e s a l s o account f o r  import  duties  and  1948 re-  - iv -  TABLE OF CONTENTS  1.  Introduction  2.  E s t i m a t i o n o f I m p o r t and E x p o r t The T r a d i t i o n a l A p p r o a c h 2.1 2.2  3.  4.  5.  6.  .  .  . Functions:  3  D i r e c t E s t i m a t i o n of P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s o f Demand f o r I m p o r t s o r E x p o r t s  ^  E s t i m a t i o n of E l a s t i c i t i e s of Substitution Between Imports ( E x p o r t s ) from (to) Different Countries . . .  The M o d e l  i  11  . . . . . . .  18  3.1  General Description  3.2  The V a r i a b l e P r o f i t  Function:  Concepts i n D u a l i t y  Theory  3.3  Further  Concepts  3.4  Two S t e p O p t i m i z a t i o n  Theoretical  .  18  .  20  Some  . . .  23 25  F u n c t i o n a l Form and E s t i m a t i o n T e c h n i q u e  26  4.1  The T r a n s l o g V a r i a b l e P r o f i t  26  4.2  Regularity  4.3  T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change  4.4  S t o c h a s t i c S p e c i f i c a t i o n and Technique  Conditions  Empirical Results 5.1  Aggregate Model  5.2  I m p o r t and E x p o r t  Conclusions  Function  28 31 Estimation .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Submodels  34 36  .  36 44  . . .  46  Footnotes  61  Bibliography  67  - V -  Appendix  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  73  1 .-  Data D e s c r i p t i o n : Domestic V a r i a b l e s  73  2.  C o n s t r u c t i o n o f P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y C o m p o n e n t s o f C a n a d i a n F o r e i g n T r a d e : 1948 t o 1972  76  2.1 A l t e r n a t i v e  Classifications  Canadian F o r e i g n Trade  of  . . . . . . . . . . .  2.2 D i s a g g r e g a t e d P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y S e r i e s 2.3 C o n s t r u c t i o n of D i v i s i a P r i c e I n d i c e s a t t h e S e c t i o n L e v e l , 1948 t o 1972  . . .  76 83  86  - vi -  LIST I  OF  TABLES  Parameter Estimates of Translog Variable P r o f i t Functions for Aggregate Canadian Private Economy  1948 to 1972 . . . . . . . . .  49  II  S t a t i s t i c s of the Aggregate Model  III  Test S t a t i s t i c s , Aggregate Canadian Private Economy, 1948 to 1972  51  Rates of Exponential Technological Change, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy, 1948 to 1972  52  E l a s t i c i t i e s of Transformation, Complementarity and Intensity for Selected Years 1948 to 1972, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy  52  IV V  VI  . . . .  51  e, n, §, and p E l a s t i c i t i e s f o r Selected Years, 1948 to 1972, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy  VII  .  54  Functions f o r Canadian Foreign Trade, 1948 to 1972 . . . . .  56  Parameter Estimates of Translog Cost and Revenue  VIII S t a t i s t i c s of the Import and Export Submodels IX X  XI  Test S t a t i s t i c s , Canadian Foreign Trade, 1948 to 1972 E l a s t i c i t i e s of Substitution and Transformation for Selected Years,. 1948 to 1972, Canadian Foreign Trade  56 ...  Price E l a s t i c i t i e s f o r Selected Years 1948 to 1972, Canadian Foreign Trade  57  58 59  APPENDIX I  Domestic Variables: Value and P r i c e Series, 1948 to 1972 . .  91  II  Value and P r i c e Series for Aggregate Imports and by Section (Series Corrected f o r Import Duties)  92  Value and P r i c e Series for Aggregate Exports and by Section (Series Corrected f o r Re-exports)  93  Value and Price Series f o r Aggregate Imports and by Section.  94  III IV'  - vii -  V  V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r Aggregate  Exports  and b y S e c t i o n .  95  VI  Summary T a b l e o f D i s a g g r e g a t e d I m p o r t  Series  VII  Summary T a b l e o f D i s a g g r e g a t e d E x p o r t  Series  . . . . . . . . .  V I I I D i s a g g r e g a t e d I m p o r t S e r i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 , Code Numbers a n d 1948 W e i g h t s IX  X  XI  98  100  D i s a g g r e g a t e d E x p o r t S e r i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 , Code Numbers a n d 1 9 4 8 W e i g h t s . . .  106  D i s a g g r e g a t e d I m p o r t S e r i e s , 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 , 2 , Code Numbers,..1948 and 1968 W e i g h t s  110  D i s a g g r e g a t e d E x p p r t v S e r ' i e s ^ " 1 9 6 0 - s _ 9 7 2 7 • • OodefL' N u m b e r s , : i 9 4 8 a n d 1968 W e i g h t s  XII  96  . . . .  .  .  .  112  D i s a g g r e g a t e d V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s , Imports 1 9 4 8 - 7 2 .  X I I I D i s a g g r e g a t e d V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s , E x p o r t s XIV  Import D u t i e s , D i s a g g r e g a t e d  XV  Re-exports, Disaggregated  1948-72.  S e r i e s , 1948-1972  S e r i e s , 1948-1972  .  .  . . 114  .  .  . 136 158 170  - viii  -  ACKNOWLEDGEMENT  I wish to express sincere appreciation to the many people  who  have contributed to my graduate study and research. I am especially grateful to the members of my thesis committee, W.E. E.R.  Berndt and A.D.  Diewert (Chairman),  Woodland for their generous help and constructive  c r i t i c i s m during a l l phases of this study. I also wish to thank: M. Denny, R.G.  E. Appelbaum, H.G.  Harris, J . H e l l i w e l l , R.A,  Bauman, D.F.  Shearer and R.S.  Burgess, Uhler  for useful discussions and comments; S. Engesaeter for his assistance i n the construction of the data and H. Glouchkow, J.B. Salley and L. V i c z i a n , of S t a t i s t i c s Canada, for their help and I am g r a t e f u l to A.M. e f f i c i e n t typing job.  cooperation.  Dussault, S. King, and May McKee for their  Gratitude i s also expressed to the Canada Council  for their f i n a n c i a l assistance which made i t possible to devote a l l my time to my education and t h i s study. F i n a l l y , I am most thankful 'to my parents f o r * _ h e i r encouragement during the many years of my academic education, and to my K r i s t i e for her love and her encouragement. to her.  wife  This thesis i s dedicated  1.  INTRODUCTION International  statistical  trade  information  is is  one o f  the branches of  the most e x t e n s i v e .  t h e r e h a v e b e e n a c o n s i d e r a b l e number o f field,  a l a r g e number o f  functions.  The s t a n d a r d p r o c e d u r e i s  in  this  p r i c e . v a r i a b l e by o r d i n a r y thesis  criticisms,  that t h i s  the i m p l i c i t  thoroughly  investigated.  this  its  framework.  or export  w i t h o u t i m p o s i n g any a p r i o r i  Burgess estimating  substitution  (1974a,b)  t h a t most i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y  estimate  It  will  theoretical  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  exports)  be a r g u e d of  foundations  we w i l l  and the u n d e r l y i n g  restriction  on t h e  or  within  estimate technology  s i g n o r the s i z e of  the  between t r a d e d goods and d o m e s t i c g o o d s .  for  duality  theory  the U n i t e d S t a t e s where i m p o r t s This formulation  in are  recognizes the  t r a d e d goods a r e i n t e r m e d i a t e  even f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s u s u a l l y pass through  this  (or  f u n c t i o n s . - w i l l be d e r i v e d  functions  competing w i t h l a b o u r and c a p i t a l .  In  export  to a wide range  h a s r e c e n t l y made u s e o f  a cost function  reaching f i n a l  and  this  a s s u m p t i o n s , the meaning of which are seldom  a more g e n e r a l t h e o r e t i c a l  of  subject  l a c k of  and e x p o r t  elasticities  studies in  to estimate imports  least squares.  t h e s i s import  simultaneously import  quantitative  therefore,  some i n c o m e v a r i a b l e a n d some  procedure i s  l a r g e l y because of  because of  In  f u n c t i o n of  which  Not s u r p r i s i n g l y  them a i m i n g t o e s t i m a t e i m p o r t  as a l i n e a r o r l o g l i n e a r relative  economics f o r  p r o d u c t s and  commercial channels  fact that  before  demand.  t h e s i s , a framework  the s t r u c t u r e  similar  to t h a t of Burgess i s used  of Canadian f o r e i g n  Burgess by adding exports  to the model.  trade.  We d e p a r t h o w e v e r  Furthermore,  indirect  taxes  to from on  - 2 intermediate  transactions are integrated into the model.  i n order f o r the accounting  This i s necessary  i d e n t i t y between the costs and the revenues  of the private economy to be s a t i s f i e d . change i n a multi-input multi-output  Factor augmenting technological  framework i s modelled and we test  for the presence of Hicks neutral technological change.  A variable p r o f i t  function i s used and we regard quantities of traded goods as endogenous and their prices as exogenous rather than the reverse.  Although this  affects the stochastic s p e c i f i c a t i o n only, we believe that our formulation i s i n t u i t i v e l y more a t t r a c t i v e since i t i s very s i m i l a r to the t r a d i t i o n a l model of the pure theory of international trade. exports are disaggregated  F i n a l l y , imports and  and two separate submodels, an import cost  function and export revenue function, are estimated. This thesis i s therefore an application of duality theory to international trade.  At the same time i t describes the construction and  the estimation of a f l e x i b l e n e o c l a s s i c a l impact model of a country's private business sector, with emphasis on the structure of i t s foreign trade.  This framework i s well suited to analysing the e f f e c t of a number  of government p o l i c i e s such as changes i n t a r i f f s or taxes on outputs, intermediate  inputs, and primary input rewards.  F i n a l l y an important  part of the thesis i s devoted to the construction of p r i c e and quantity components of postwar Canadian foreign trade.  Trade data are put on a  consistent c l a s s i f i c a t i o n basis and pre and post t a r i f f prices are constructed.  These series provide a useful data base for future  i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade and the testing of neoclassical production  research theory.  - 3 2.  ESTIMATION OF IMPORT AND EXPORT FUNCTIONS: The c o n v e n t i o n a l m o d e l o f  assumes t h a t t h e r e of production  is  In is  either  the Keynesian framework,  a Leontief  complement  empirical applications,  are seldom p r o p e r l y  the  functions  investigated.  i n t o two  of p r i c e  estimation  of  (to)  to  (1962)  tions  of  different  these s t u d i e s , only  either  domestically  international  takes p l a c e ,  its  imported  t h e home p r o d u c e d g o o d o r  framework  to the  of  of  with  is  usually  implications of  this  estimation of  demand f o r  substitution  imports  or  import  exports,  between imports  (exports)  countries.  (1970).  empirical studies  i n both  groups,  summarized by Cheng ( 1 9 5 9 ) , Because of  a sample of  the s i m i l a r i t i e s  t h e more r e c e n t o n e s w i l l  the main emphasis b e i n g put upon the approach.  one  output.  related  elasticities  elasticities  a n d Learner a n d S t e r n  reviewed h e r e ,  for  sections:  them h a v i n g b e e n c o n v e n i e n t l y  many o f  trade  For the remaining p a r t  T h e r e h a v e b e e n a l a r g e number o f many o f  if  and r e p l a c e d b y a s s u m p t i o n s , w h o s e  estimation  from  to  theoretical  c h a p t e r , we d i v i d e e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s  (ii)  substitutes  factors  the p r o d u c t i o n process together  in fixed proportions  considerably altered  (i)'  u s i n g two  assumed to be income o r o u t p u t and t h e  good w h i c h e n t e r s  domestic f a c t o r s  and e x p o r t  trade  commonly a s s u m e d t h a t o u t p u t c a n b e a g g r e g a t e d i n t o  an i n t e r m e d i a t e  In  international  On t h e o t h e r h a n d i n m a c r o e c o n o m i c s o r i n  main determinant is  of  a r e two g o o d s p r o d u c e d n o n j o i n t l y  s i n g l e commodity.  commodity  theory  and t h a t t r a d e d goods a r e p e r f e c t  produced goods. finance, it  the pure  THE TRADITIONAL APPROACH.  theoretical  Prais between be  founda-  - 4 2.1  Direct Estimation of P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s of Demand f o r Imports or Exports The very large majority of researchers have estimated a variant of  one of the two following functions:  (1)  M = a + b.t •PD  + u P  D  M In M = a + 3 In ^ - + y In 3 ^ + v P P D D Y  (2)  where:  5  M -= quantity of imports Y  = nominal income  P_ = p r i c e of domestic goods P  = p r i c e of imports  b and c are respectively the income and the p r i c e propensity to import, while B and y are the income and theppfiee e l a s t i c i t y of imports. second functional form thus imposes the condition that both  The  elasticities  are constant. If a l l imported and domestic goods are consumer goods, making use of conventional consumer theory, we can write the quantity of imports an individual i demands as follows:  i- i ' v v  m  4  d  =  d  2  (Yi  ( Y ±  ' M' P  V  (3)  where Y  1  i s i n d i v i d u a l i ' s disposable income, P^ i s the p r i c e vector of  t h e i m p o r t e d goods and both imports  the p r i c e v e c t o r of  the domestic goods.  and d o m e s t i c goods c a n be a g g r e g a t e d and i f  aggregates over a l l  M  or,  is  5 -  =  D  individuals,  < ' M' Y  P  one  If  further  (3) becomes:  V'  a s s u m i n g t h e a b s e n c e o f money  illusion:  Y (4)  M = D( P.  (1)  a n d (2)  are then merely f u n c t i o n a l  the absence of  the export  where the a s t e r i s k s r e f e r imports  function  to r e s t  (4)  (i)  actual  of  the world  c a n be d e r i v e d f r o m p r o d u c t i o n  aggregation over imports  in  form.  can be w r i t t e n a s :  variables.  to domestic i n p u t s ,  there e x i s t s a homothetic  (ii)  (4) w h i c h a r e u s e d  a r e composed o f n o n f i n i s h e d goods w h i c h e n t e r  production process in addition to  for  any f u r t h e r k n o w l e d g e a b o u t i t s  Similarly,  If  forms  theory  an equation  similar  if:  aggregate production as w e l l  the  function;  as o v e r d o m e s t i c i n p u t s  is  possible. In  this  p r i c e of  c a s e Y s h o u l d be r e d e f i n e d as o u t p u t and P ^ w o u l d be t h e domestic inputs.  derived for  An e q u a t i o n s i m i l a r  e x p o r t s of non f i n i s h e d  In view of  the f a c t  to  (5)  c o u l d a l s o be  goods.  that imports  a r e g e n e r a l l y composed o f  f i n i s h e d and n o n f i n i s h e d g o o d s , t h e common p r o c e d u r e i s i n c o m e v a r i a b l e some p r o x y f o r  rental  to  both  take f o r  the  b o t h o u t p u t and d i s p o s a b l e income s u c h as  GNP.  The d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e w h i c h i s u s e d i s v e r y o f t e n t h e  price index. estimated, number o f  When i m p o r t f u n c t i o n s  different  various  square for  of  supplementary  data.  forms  various  (1)  and (2)  countries  or  data, a l l  income v a r i a b l e ,  imports  they  chose e i t h e r  being divided  the authors  of  index except f o r  also modified  non f e r r o u s m e t a l s , but  to  into  estimate  six  commodity  with l i t t l e  i n d e x was p r e f e r r e d .  salary  In  food  some  the model by adding such exogenous  success.  the stock of  The e s t i m a t e d  imports;  income e l a s t i c i t y  was 0 . 9 1  for  for  t o t a l imports  the  price  aggregate a n d was  otherwise.  H o u t h a k k e r a n d Magee ( 1 9 6 9 ) twenty s i x  the  variable  the equation f o r  r a n g e d f r o m - 0 . 2 6 t o - 3 . 5 0 a n d was - 0 . 5 1  and 2 . 4 7  As  government wages and  elasticities  countries.  estimated Their  equation  (2)  imports  and  i n c o m e v a r i a b l e was GNP a n d  the  w h o l e s a l e p r i c e was u s e d a s t h e d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e . elasticities  interwar  the p e r i o d 1948-1958 w i t h  v a r i a b l e s a s t h e n o n wage t o wage i n c o m e r a t i o o r  exports of  (1)  Ebr t h e d o m e s t i c p r i c e  p r o d u c t s where a food consumer p r i c e  between 0.49  ordinary  groups, using  used equation  GNP n e t  or d i s p o s a b l e income.  the  a  not  r i g h t hand v a r i a b l e s b e i n g l a g g e d one q u a r t e r .  they used the w h o l e s a l e p r i c e  instances  explanatory variables  commodity  A l l equations were e s t i m a t e d f o r  disbursment  each equation  have been e s t i m a t e d by  B a l l a n d Marwah ( 1 9 6 2 )  United States import f u n c t i o n s ,  quarterly  trying for  are  by t h e b a s i c model.'''  Both f u n c t i o n a l  or postwar  commodity groups  wholesale  i n c o m e a n d d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e s a n d , i n many  adding a v a r i e t y  accounted f o r  groups.  for  t h e s t a n d a r d method c o n s i s t s i n  instances,  least  6 -  had the r i g h t  For the United S t a t e s they  for  Most  s i g n , but were i n g e n e r a l s m a l l e r found an import p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y  price  than of  one.  -0.54,  an  - 7 export p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y (imports) -1.46  and 0.99  (imports)  imports  1.51 w h i l e  (exports).  and - 0 . 5 9  the income e l a s t i c i t i e s were  For Canada,  (exports)  variables  estimated U.S. imports s u c h as the p r i c e o f  of U . S . t o t a l imports estimates of  t h e o p t i m a l amount o f  and v i c e - v e r s a .  of  imports  to  imports being i t s e l f  than 2 i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e .  I n h i s macro model o f equation  (1)  for  additional the  functional  For t o t a l imports  to obtain long  run model, (2).  for which  form f o r Most of  twelve  the  the  groups  estimated  they a l l were s m a l l e r the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y  was  0.96.  t h e C a n a d i a n economy, Rhomberg (1964)  both imports  price  -4.05.  s i g n but  - 0 . 9 3 and t h e income e l a s t i c i t y was  and  d e t e r m i n e d by e q u a t i o n  the period 1926-1955.  p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s had the c o r r e c t  were  to  by commodity c l a s s  estimated the l i n e a r  Canada f o r  exports r e l a t i v e  In order  p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s ranged from ^0.18 to (1962)  Houthakker  they estimated a flow adjustment  they estimated U.S. imports  Kemp  and 1 . 4 1 .  1.51  for  and e x p o r t s by c o u n t r y u s i n g  a country's  the e l a s t i c i t i e s ,  the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s  and t h e income e l a s t i c i t i e s  and e x p o r t s were r e s p e c t i v e l y 1.20  Magee n e x t  Finally  of  and e x p o r t s .  used  S e a s o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s  were added and the i m p o r t e q u a t i o n a l s o i n c l u d e d an i n v e s t m e n t  proxy  as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e .  The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s he o b t a i n e d w e r e  of  and - 1  the o r d e r of - 2  (exports)  Many e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s o f especially  (imports).  the k i n d described i n t h i s  those using interwar  d a t a , found v e r y low e s t i m a t e s f o r  p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s of  demand f o r  have been h e s i t a n t  accept these estimates at  to  section,  arguing that the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y  imports  of  or exports.  imports  their  s h o u l d be  the  Many e c o n o m i s t s face value, substantially  h i g h e r than the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y supply.  Indeed, i f  imports  demand a n d home s u p p l y ,  8 of  either  take p l a c e to  d o m e s t i c demand o r fill  the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y  domestic  a gap b e t w e e n home  of  imports  can be  from the f o l l o w i n g model where D, S and M denote r e s p e c t i v e l y demand, d o m e s t i c s u p p l y and  calculated domestic  imports:  D = D(p) (7)  S = S(p)  M = D - S. The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y  (Q\ E  imports  dM P dp M  =  '  K  of  M  One w o u l d t h u s e x p e c t both e  and e .  (4):  non p e r f e c t  , dD dS , dp ~ dp  in a l l  to  (8)  D  S_  M D " M £  (i)  for  d o m e s t i c goods w h i l e  (1950)  in  (7),  e s t i m a t i o n had to be f o u n d .  faces a p o s i t i v e l y  elasticity  all  of  demand f o r  Orcutt's  least  the in be  Working  new  o b j e c t i o n s were as  i n t h e demand s u r f a c e .  If  follows:  a  s l o p e d s u p p l y curve the e s t i m a t e d  imports w i l l  (1927)  the  z e r o and t h a t  i n f a c t be a  t h e demand e l a s t i c i t y w i l l b e b i a s e d t o w a r d s  the f a m i l i a r  to  square  identification  price  combination  t h e n e g a t i v e demand a n d t h e p o s i t i v e s u p p l y p r i c e  i.e.  than  t r a d e d goods  made f i v e o b j e c t i o n s  conclude that  E r r o r s and b i a s due t o s h i f t s  of  i n a b s o l u t e terms  t h e home p r o d u c e d g o o d s .  approach l e a d i n g him to  country  S  e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s t r a d e d goods were assumed t o  e s t i m a t e s o f p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s were b i a s e d towards methods o f  E  a n d t h o s e w h i c h a r e made i m p l i c i t l y  I n a w e l l known p a p e r , O r c u t t traditional  =  There i s however a s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e between  substitutes  are i d e n t i c a l  M  to be c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r ,  model u n d e r l y i n g e q u a t i o n deriving  p  =  can then be e x p r e s s e d a s :  elasticity,  zero.  problem.  This  Any s h i f t  is in  - 9the demand schedule would lead to a change i n both the observed p r i c e and quantity. i s not independent  Hence the error term of the demand equation  of the p r i c e variable or the quantity of  imports not explained by income, which violates the assumptions of the ordinary least square method, (ii)  Estimation of short-run rather than long-run e l a s t i c i t i e s .  If  no lags are used, the estimated e l a s t i c i t i e s tend to take into account the adjustment which occurs within one period only, (iii)  Errors and bias due to errors of observation.  The l e a s t square  estimate of the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y of imports w i l l be biased towards zero unless the p r i c e and income variables are measured without error.  However i f the variables are subject to large  variations over the observed period, then any bias would be minimal. (iv)  Errors due to aggregation.  Orcutt argues that since h i s t o r i c a l  price changes are largest for goods with low p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s , the changes i n the aggregate p r i c e index are mainly due to goods with low e l a s t i c i t i e s , which corresponds to only small;'>quantity changes.  This would lead to a low estimate of the p r i c e  e l a s t i c i t y of t o t a l import demand, (v)  The price e l a s t i c i t y of demand for imports or exports may  be  larger for large price change than for small p r i c e changes.  One  reason for t h i s , following Orcutt, would be the cost to the consumer or the importer involved i n s h i f t i n g from one supply source to another.  I t seems however that whether or not a large  price change (e.g.- a f t e r a devaluation) leads to a proportionally larger quantity change than a small price change remains an open question.•  -  10  -  O r c u t t ' s v i e w s w e r e s u p p o r t e d b y a number o f Harberger Orcutt's  (1953, 1957) objections  or Neisser  (1958)  for  i s more f u n d a m e n t a l .  small countries,  exogenous,  to mention a few.  however appear d e b a t a b l e , the l a s t  o r c o u l d be a p p l i e d to n e a r l y a l l objection  a u t h o r s , Machlup  The  can be argued however,  the p r i c e of  Some o f  one f o r  econometric s t u d i e s .  It  (1950),  instance,  first  that at  least  t r a d e d goods can be c o n s i d e r e d as  i n which case the problem d i s a p p e a r s .  t o have emerged i n more r e c e n t y e a r s t h a t  A c o n s e n s u s seems  the l e a s t square approach  2 could s t i l l In  b e u s e d f o r many e m p i r i c a l  this  t h e s i s we do n o t  directly  T h e r e a r e h o w e v e r a number o f o t h e r to estimate p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s of  this  t h e s i s to  t h e number o f  deal with Orcutt's  i s not  satisfactory  and i t  First  object  there  function  (or  for  to  between i m p o r t e d goods and d o m e s t i c g o o d s .  the assumption that as i t This is  stands)  substitution  t h e same.  the separable assumed  This implies  between any i m p o r t e d  good  are estimated for  different  t h e n assumes t h a t e a c h i m p o r t i n t u r n i s  f r o m a l l d o m e s t i c goods b u t  that  T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s even more  o b j e c t i o n a b l e when s e v e r a l i m p o r t f u n c t i o n s Commodity g r o u p s s i n c e i t  is  implicitly  when b o t h i m p o r t e d a n d d o m e s t i c g o o d s a r e a g g r e g a t e d .  and any d o m e s t i c good i s  the  justification.  the production f u n c t i o n  the e l a s t i c i t y . o f  is  the  a l s o many a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s a r e i n t r o d u c e d i n t o  S e c o n d l y , o n e may s e r i o u s l y o b j e c t  not only  the  N o t o n l y a r e many v a r i a b l e s u s e d a s p r o x y  a n a l y s i s w i t h o u t any t h e o r e t i c a l  a t any p o i n t  is  method  a d h o c a s s u m p t i o n s w h i c h h a v e b e e n made i n c h o o s i n g  ones, but  utility  objections.  r e a s o n s why t h e t r a d i t i o n a l  improve t h e a n a l y s i s on t h e s e p o i n t s .  explanatory v a r i a b l e s . other  studies.  a l s o from a l l  other  imports.  separable The  model becomes d e f i n i t e l y  confused when some goods are treated as  inter-  mediate products and others as f i n a l goods. Finally  the estimation would be much more e f f i c i e n t i f instead of  estimating isolated import and export functions, one estimated the whole system simultaneously.  This would also allow one to impose constraints  across equations (e.g. symmetry constraints).  2.2  Estimation of E l a s t i c i t i e s of Substitution between Imports .(Exports) "from (to) Different Countries The estimation of e l a s t i c i t i e s of substitution between imports or  exports i s often viewed as an alternative way elasticities. commodities x^,  Assume a production ... x  of estimating p r i c e  function or a u t i l i t y function with  for arguments.  The Allen-Hicks e l a s t i c i t y of  3 substitution along an isocurve has been defined  as:  9ln(x /xj) i  ij  ~ 3ln(3x../9x.)'  CT  In competitive P. _____  p.  3  equilibrium, since: 3x. 1  ak.  i  '  the e l a s t i c i t y of substitution for movements along a two dimensional isocurve can be written as: 8ln(x./x.)  a  ij  =—  81n(p /pj i  In empirical studies, the function which has almost invariably been estimated i s the logarithmic form:  x ln — = a + g ln 2  (9)  where x^ and from (to)  are import  different  12  -  Cfl p  (export)  ) +  2  quantities  i s assumed to be  Zelder  (1958)  w i t h those of  of  o  n  x  o  x  substitution  obtained.  of  2  v  e  substitution,  them i n t o  He l o g a r i t h m i c a l l y r  t  *  i e  are their  P  e r  twenty seven groups  regressed both x - / x  as the geometric average of  the  two v a l u e s he  together,  i.e.  (when t h e p r i c e s o f no o r l i t t l e  one a r e h e l d c o n s t a n t ) . estimates of unbiased i f  substitution  of  of  a country's  substitution  total  the  e x p o r t s move one  country)  (when a l l p r i c e s  are only e f f i c i e n t  demand f o r  two  elasticities  p o i n t e d out however,  substitution  c r o s s - e l a s t i c i t i e s of  thus  exports of  between e x p o r t s of  As K a l i s k i (1958)  the e l a s t i c i t i e s of all  all  elasticity  he blamed on  Z e l d e r then d i s t i n g u i s h e d between d e v a l u a t i o n  and n o n d e v a l u a t i o n e l a s t i c i t i e s o f  exports  composition of  for  P^T>2  on  2  i o d 1921^1938 and c a l c u l a t e d t h e  a g g r e g a t i o n e r r o r s and t h e d i f f e r e n t  substitution  should  the U n i t e d Kingdom  m a n u f a c t u r e s h o w e v e r h i s e s t i m a t e was p o s i t i v e , a r e s u l t  of  respective  which, i t  A l l e s t i m a t e s were between - 1 . 2 and - 1 2 . 8 , but  countries.  but  constant.  the United S t a t e s , d i v i d i n g  ^ 2  s i m i l a r commodities  compared m a n u f a c t u r e d e x p o r t s o f  and t w e l v e s u b g r o u p s . and P ^ / P 2  of  c o u n t r i e s o r r e g i o n s , p^ a n d p  p r i c e s and 3 i s t h e e s t i m a t e d e l a s t i c i t y be n o t e d ,  u  t h e two  but  the and  country's  t h e same g o o d a s w e l l a s t h e i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t i e s  are  4 equal,  i n which case i t  from non d e v a l u a t i o n  becomes i m p o s s i b l e to  to  devaluation  elasticities.  S u r p r i s i n g l y enough, o n l y few a u t h o r s interpretation  distinguish  the e l a s t i c i t i e s  attempted  to give a  t h e y had e s t i m a t e d , a l t h o u g h  rigorous the  problems of of  estimating e l a s t i c i t i e s of  the p a r t i c u l a r  elsewhere,  functional  (1953)  d ln(x /x  • a i (  6  n  This quantity it  /p ) •  rather  in a l l  substitution  empirical  than the pure s u b s t i t u t i o n  studies  effect.  For  the  t o b e t h e s a m e , two c o n d i t i o n s m u s t b e s a t i s f i e d :  t h e i s o c u r v e s must b e h o m o t h e t i c ;  (ii)  if  t h e r e a r e more t h a n two g o o d s i n t h e e c o n o m y , t h e m a p p i n g  b e t w e e n t h e two f i r s t or p r i c e s of What t h i s l '  2  i s measured a l o n g an i s o c u r v e , but  two e f f e c t s  x  can be w r i t t e n a s :  i s e q u a l to the A l l e n - H i c k s e l a s t i c i t y of  8 i s the t o t a l e f f e c t  (i)  P l  (1967).  )  1  only i f  or i n Goldberger  the measured e l a s t i c i t y  < 1 0 )  implication  forms have been d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y  e.g., in Morrisset  From (9)  s u b s t i t u t i o n and the  X  2'  X  n'  in  (~k  e  quantities  g°°ds are e i t h e r  Assume t h e r e a r e n g o o d s ,  imported or  t h e home economy a n d t h a t x ^ a n d x -  commodities, but  the  goods.  i m p l i e s c a n b e shown a s f o l l o w s .  """  produced)  the other  goods must be i n d e p e n d e n t o f  imported from d i f f e r e n t  sources.  domestically are  similar  T h e demand e q u a t i o n s  can be w r i t t e n a s :  (11)  x.^ = x ( p , i  where y i s income ( i t  1  p , 2  ...  alternatively  p , n  y)  i  c o u l d be o u t p u t ) .  = 1,  ...  n  The b u d g e t  c o n s t r a i n t has t o be s a t i s f i e d :  p'x -  and t h e t o t a l  effect  of  y  a change i n r e l a t i v e p r i c e s P - , / p  9  on  relative  -  quantities  x-/x  d ln(x-/x.)  d ln(p /p ) 1  c a n be w r i t t e n a s :  31n(x /x ) 1  81n(  =  2  For  2  14 -  8 = o_  2  P ; L  31n(x-/x )  2  /p )  ***  +  2  31n ^  +  d ln( either  3ln(x-/x )  dln y  2  d lnfr^p-)  +  31n y  d lnCp./p^  t o be s a t i s f i e d , one o f t h e f o l l o w i n g r e l a t i o n s must h o l d :  d ln y  i.e.  d l n x,  2  31n(x-/x ) /p )  P l  2  =  0  o  3ln y  r  =  ° '  income i s h e l d c o n s t a n t o r t h e mapping between x ^ and x  homothetic which implies that o f t h e two g o o d s a r e t h e  - a t any p o i n t  the income  2  i s  elasticities  same.  F u r t h e r m o r e i f t h e r e a r e m o r e t h a n two g o o d s i n t h e economy i t must a l s o be t r u e  that: d I n x^  31n(x-/x ) 2  -j-z—-.—j—r-  = 0 or — —  d ln(p /p ) 1  i.e.  t h e mapping between x ^ and x  quantity price  x ^ o rthe q u a n t i t y  = 0  31n x  2  2  i  = 3, . . . n ,  i  must be i n v a r i a n t  t o a change i n the  x^ i s n o t a f f e c t e d by a change i n r e l a t i v e  (p-/p ). 2  Because o f the a m b i g u i t i e s  o f the measure o f an i n d i v i d u a l s ' s  e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n b e t w e e n two g o o d s p l u s t h e difficulties estimate  o f community i n d i f f e r e n c e  (10) w i t h o u t  substitution.  conceptual  c u r v e s , one c o u l d be tempted t o  any r e f e r e n c e t o t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e e l a s t i c i t y  6 can be w r i t t e n a s :  of  -  £  11 " 21 dlnrp£  e +  d i n pv l  £  (11)  (i=l,2; j=l,  i s not  . . . n)  first  din p  n  +  d i n p-  din y  ' i , 1 = 1, ~ " ' it  In  n  n •  n.  i s a complex f u n c t i o n  (which i n g e n e r a l w i l l  obscure.  l " 2 d i n p^ - d i n  £  a simple concept:  addition,  n o t be  even i f  a r e i n g e n e r a l unknown s o t h a t  a s s u m p t i o n s a r e made.  i s done i n n e a r l y a l l  than i t  ln 2n d i n p^ -  of  constant)  all  demand  a r e k n o w n , t h e t e r m s d i n p ^ / d l n p_. a n d d i n p ^ / d l n y  unless further it  +  8In x . i n. = — l 31n y  a.n d,  meaning i s r a t h e r  equations  £ +  "'*  p r i c e and income e l a s t i c i t i e s and i t s  22  -  d i n p_ _  8In x . where e . . = — -i ij 31n P j Hence g r e d e f i n e d  12 " din  15  it  From the d e f i n i t i o n  and by l o g a r i t h m i c  -  x  as  restrictive  to adding n c o n s t r a i n t s  8 to be u n i q u e l y of  indeterminate  F o r c i n g 8 to be a c o n s t a n t ,  is equivalent  model w h i c h i n t u r n a l l o w  din x  be  e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , i s much m o r e  appears:  (12)  8 will  to  the  determined.  8 we h a v e :  din x- = 6(din p  differentiation  of  1  - din  the f i r s t  p.)  two e q u a t i o n s i n  d i n x.. = £.,, d i n p.. + E . - d i n p + 1 11 frl 12 2 0  ...  (11):  £_ d i n p + r u d l n In n 1  (13) din x (12)  and (13)  =  2  ^-*- P£ n  +  22^  e  n  ^2  +  ' ' '  e  2n^  n  P  n  imply:  (14)  n  l  =  _ n  =  -  £  (=8=constant)  2 2  2  £, . = £  Ii  2 1  o.  2i  i  = 3,  .. .  n.  +  n  2 ^ C  n  y  y  p_  - 16 These are the n r e l a t i o n s allowing 8 to be uniquely determined.  They  imply severe r e s t r i c t i o n s on the form of the demand functions or the underlying technology or preference map.  Note that (14) are again the  conditions ensuring that 8 = -^2* CT  Ignoring the ambiguous character of 8, several authors have attempted to derive from i t estimates of the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y of import functions.  I t i s well known that:  Vl<^t[> I U  (15)  = U  +  X  2 2 P  (  ^  > I ii  =  I  +  +  Vn ^ ? (  which i s sometimes written as:  (16)  W  u  + x p _ 2  2  2 1  + ... + x p _ n  n  n l  = 0  By (14) this becomes: X  2 2  _ S £  P  + x p  '11  2  2  Vi x-p^ + X P 2  2  "il  or, i f a l l commodities are net substitutes:  2 2 "11 - x + x p X  p  l P l  2  2  "*  One could thus obtain an upper bound to the actual p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y . This derivation follows Harberger's (1957) treatment. formula i s e s s e n t i a l l y the same.  Zelder's (1958)  This procedure i s however hardly  acceptable since i t i s not legitimate to replace (15) by (16). In (15) ( 3x^/9p-)/( P-^/*^) I u = U  i  S  3  P  r i c e  any income e f f e c t , while i n (16) e „  substitution term, i . e . net of i s the t o t a l substitution e f f e c t .  We c o n c l u d e t h i s pretation  of  of  (1953)  substitution  g i v e any i n d i c a t i o n  -  s e c t i o n w i t h w h a t may seem t o b e t h e b e s t  g. M o r r i s s e t t  the e l a s t i c i t y  17  showed t h a t  between market  about a b s o l u t e v a l u e s .  g i v e n 'to. 8 b y J u n z a n d R h o m b e r g ( 1 9 7 3 ) flows  to  changes i n r e l a t i v e  prices.  usefulness of  any a t t e m p t t o e s t i m a t e  substitution,  either  (8+1)  is  the measure  s h a r e s , but  This i s  inter-  it  does  a l s o the  of not  interpretation  i n a n a l y s i n g the response of One may s e r i o u s l y d o u b t a b o u t the A l l e n - H i c k s e l a s t i c i t y  p e r se o r i n o r d e r  to  calculate price  trade the  of  elasticities.  -  3.  3.1  18  -  THE MODEL  General  Description  In  chapter a system of  this  import  and e x p o r t  w i t h some u n d e r l y i n g b e h a v i o u r a l a s s u m p t i o n w i l l t o a v o i d some o f approach. formulated.  It  purpose a model of  will  the  a country's  be assumed t h a t i m p o r t  technology w i l l  and e x p o r t  exports  commodity m a r k e t s and i n t h e f a c t o r  are thus  technology.  Under these c o n d i t i o n s  it  to,  subject  to  prices.  the technology,  the f a c t o r  competition  Imports  of,  any p e r i o d o f  the model can  the  competitive  endowments a n d a v e c t o r o f  The b e h a v i o u r a l a s s u m p t i o n u n d e r l y i n g  and  and o u t p u t s  i s w e l l known t h a t t h e  e q u i l i b r i u m i s a l s o t h e s o l u t i o n o f m a x i m i z i n g GNP a t  be  decisions are  markets.  c o n s i d e r e d r e s p e c t i v e l y as i n p u t s  attempt  traditional  made b y p r o f i t m a x i m i z i n g f i r m s w h i c h o p e r a t e u n d e r p e r f e c t both i n the  consistent  be d e r i v e d i n a n  t h e more s e r i o u s s h o r t c o m i n g s o f  For t h i s  functions  time  output  therefore  be w r i t t e n a s :  max p ' y  where T i s  s.t.  (y;x)  e T  the p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y  s e t , y a vector of  outputs  (imports  b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d a s a n e g a t i v e output r a t h e r than a f i x e d i n p u t S vector of  domestic factor  A multiple-input  endowments a n d p a n o u t p u t  multiple-output  by t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y conditions  are met,  set.  and s i n c e p r o f i t  r e p r e s e n t e d by a t r a n s f o r m a t i o n a duality  technology  vector.  can t h u s be  Alternatively,  if  maximization i s  or a p r o f i t  price  function.  p r i n c i p l e between p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y  x a  certain  represented regularity  assumed, i t  can be  There thus  s e t s and p r o f i t  exists  - 19 functions similar to that which exists between production functions and cost functions.  I f one or more goods or factors are considered to be  fixed, the dual of the production p o s s i b i l i t y set becomes a variable p r o f i t function.  The variable p r o f i t function i s the formulation  adopted i n this thesis to describe the technology, largely because of the s i m i l a r i t i e s with the conventional model of international trade, i . e . because output prices can be taken as exogenous and quantities of primary factors are assumed to be fixed i n the short run. This model should therefore improve the analysis r e l a t i v e l y to the t r a d i t i o n a l approach i n the following way: (i)  A coherent and complete system of output supply import demand) equations w i l l be derived and  (including  estimated  simultaneously. (ii)  By using a very f l e x i b l e functional form, no a p r i o r i assumption on s e p a r a b i l i t y or on the degree of complementarity or substituta b i l i t y between goods or factors w i l l have to be made,  (iii)  No ad hoc assumption w i l l have to be made i n the choice of p a r t i c u l a r variables and no supplementary explanatory variable w i l l have to be introduced without t h e o r e t i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n ,  (iv)  The framework i s well suited to studying the effect of changes i n various government p o l i c y parameters such as t a r i f f s , taxes on intermediate inputs and f i n a l outputs. The analysis, however, w i l l s t i l l be subject to at least three of  Orcutt's objections. (i)  A l l output prices w i l l be taken as exogenous.  To make them  endogenous would require a general equilibrium model which i s  - 20 -  beyond the scope of t h i s thesis.  Another way  to avoid any bias  would be to use'instrumental variables, but their choice would be somewhat a r b i t r a r y .  Regarding  imports and exports, i t w i l l  therefore be assumed that Canada i s a small open economy and acts l i k e a price-taker.^ (ii)  The model w i l l only estimate short run demand and supply functions. Optimization i s assumed to be instantaneous.  This impact model,  as i t could be characterized, i s s t i l l of considerable interest. Moreover the choice of a p a r t i c u l a r lag structure would be a r b i t r a r y , since our theoretical framework makes no  allowance  for i t . (iii)  The aggregation problem i s s t i l l present.  Current  econometric  techniques do not allow us to disaggregate beyond ten to f i f t e e n goods.  3.2  The Variable P r o f i t Function:  Some Concepts i n Duality Theory.  The concept of the v a r i a b l e p r o f i t function was  i n i t i a l l y introduced  by Samuelson (1953-54) and has been discussed by Gorman (1968), (1973),,1974a) and Lau (1974a) among others. based on Diewert  Diewert  This whole section w i l l be  (1973, 1974a) to whom the reader i s referred f o r a  proof of the theorems and lemmas. Henceforth we w i l l denote v a r i a b l e inputs or outputs by y^, i = 1, (y_^ i s p o s i t i v e i f an output, negative otherwise), fixed inputs or outputs (positive and negative respectively) by x_. , j = l , ... , J , prices of variable quantities by p. and prices of fixed quantities by w..  The  I  vector  of  letter,  those q u a n t i t i e s  but without  21 -  or prices w i l l  corresponding  subscript.  The e c o n o m y ' s f e a s i b l e s e t o f and i s  be d e n o t e d b y t h e  inputs  c a l l e d the p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y  and o u t p u t s set.  i s denoted by T  The f o l l o w i n g  assumptions  8 a r e made o n T : 1.1.  T i s a c l o s e d , n o n empty s u b s e t o f  1.2.  T i s a convex  1.3.  if  z'  1.4.  if  ( y ; x ) ^ e t T ^ c t h e n t h e - c o m p o n e n t s ; o f y a r e i b o i i n d e d .from a b o v e  x  e T,  space.  set.  z " < z ' , t h e n z " e T.  function  is  then defined a s :  max {p'y:(y;x) y  -°° i f  e T, p »  0}  no y e x i s t s s u c h t h a t  (y;x)  e T  0.  When T s a t i s f i e s  1.1  to  1.4  a n d p >> 0,n i s w e l l  d e f i n e d and  the f o l l o w i n g  conditions:  11.1  II(p;x)  i s a r e a l extended f u n c t i o n  11.2  II(p;„)  i s homogenous o f  11.3  n(p;x) i s  convex i n p f o r  11.4  n(p;x)  is  concave i n x f o r  11.5  II(p;x)  is  i n c r e a s i n g or d e c r e a s i n g w i t h r e s p e c t to p,  on whether  defined for  d e g r e e one i n  a l l p >> 0 a n d a n y  p.  every f i x e d  x.  every f i x e d  t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g good i s  satisfies  p. depending  a v a r i a b l e output or  input  respectively. II.6  for  fixed.  The v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  where p »  I + J dimensional  II(p;x)  is  on whether  i n c r e a s i n g or decreasing w i t h respect to x the  respectively.  c o r r e s p o n d i n g good i s  a fixed  input  or  depending output  x.  The p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y  22 s e t T c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o II c a n b e  defined  as: T = {(y;x)  : p'y  When II s a t i s f i e s I I . 1  to I I . 6 ,  and t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t If  and x * ,  differentiable  e v e r y p >>  0}. s a t i s f y 1.1  corresponding to T w i l l  f u n c t i o n II(p;x)  w i t h r e s p e c t to  the  satisfies  to  1.4  c o i n c i d e w i t h II.  (II)  and i s  in  c o m p o n e n t s o f p a t p * >>  0  then:  This result Shephard's  i s known a s H o t e l l i n g ' s (1953)  Finally, the  for  t h e n T so d e f i n e d w i l l  function  the v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  addition  to  < n(p;x)  if  (1932)  lemma w h i c h a p p l i e s t o n(p;x)  components o f x ,  lemma a n d i s a n a l o g o u s  cost  is differentiable  to  functions.  a t p * >> 0 a n d x * w i t h  respect  then:  8II(p*;x*) * , . — - = w (p*;x*), j w h e r e w.. i s  t h e shadow p r i c e o f  Upon f o r m u l a t i n g it  a functional  i s p o s s i b l e to d e r i v e  the v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s assume t h a t f i r m s (e.g. of  fixed factors  i s required i n order  the system of  the v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  a r e m o b i l e between f i r m s ) will  be ' e q u a l t o  to j u s t i f y  function,  demand a n d s u p p l y e q u a t i o n s  by a p p l y i n g H o t e l l i n g ' s  thus o b t a i n a system of  productivity  form f o r  x^.  a l s o o p t i m i z e w i t h r e s p e c t to  those q u a n t i t i e s  will  fixed quantity  their  lemma.  I n a d d i t i o n we  the f i x e d  will  quantities  and h e n c e t h e shadow p r i c e  market p r i c e .  aggregation over firms  This  assumption  and i n d u s t r i e s .  s u p p l y o r demand e q u a t i o n s a n d o f  r e l a t i o n s w h i c h c a n be e s t i m a t e d  for  simultaneously.  marginal  We  3.3  Further Theoretical In order  to  23  -  Concepts.  d e s c r i b e the estimated technology,  such as e l a s t i c i t i e s o f  transformation  familiar  concepts  or p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s w i l l  be  used. For of  a production f u n c t i o n F, the A l l e n  substitution  (1938) p a r t i a l  elasticity  between X . and X . i s d e f i n e d a s : i J  siVh i i i ' F  X,Xi  CT1J  |F|  w h e r e F, = 3 F / 3 X , , F i s h h' of  3 F/3X.3X. If  in  3  1  the bordered Hessian of  F and F . .  IJ  is  the  cofactor  l.l.  the p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n  that  the e l a s t i c i t y  unit  cost function  of  is  nomothetic,  substitution  C(w)  Uzawa  ( 1 9 6 2 ) h a s shown  can a l s o be w r i t t e n i n terms of  the  as:  CC.. cr ij  =  C i  C.  3  where C . = 3C/3w. and C . i I ij Diewert profit (i)  (1974a)  functions  by  2  = 3 C/3w. l  extended t h i s  of  transformation  n(p*;x*) (p*;x*)  3  2  = [3n(p*;x*)/3  0., i s xh  the c l a s s of  variable  P i  between v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s  (p*;x*)/3p.3p — ][3n(p*;x*)/3p ]  thus a n o r m a l i z a t i o n of  invariant  (ii)  concept to  defining:  an e l a s t i c i t y  0  w.. j  i,  h=l,  ...  i  and h :  I  h  3 y . / 3 p . , w h e r e 0.. I h lh J  is  chosen  to  t h e u n i t o f m e a s u r e m e n t a n d 0., = 0, .. lh hi an e l a s t i c i t y of complementarity between f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s  ilfM].#i„llf 1  BllHIIiiilMlllH  j  and  k;  - 24 -  n(p*;x*)9 n(p*;x*)/3x.3x^ 2  (iii)  0.  (p*;X*)  j  '  k  =  :  —rrr.  ^  "[3n(p*;i*)7^3x Tr3n(p*;x*)^^^  j  j  '  k = 1  '  J  an e l a s t i c i t y of i n t e n s i t y between variable quantity i and fixed quantity j : n(p*;x*) 3 n(p*;x*)/3p.3x. 4)..(p*;x*) = — [3n(p*;x*)/3 ] [3n(p*;x*)/9 ]  i = l , ... I  2  J  j = l , ... J  1 J  Pi  Xj  The p a r t i a l price e l a s t i c i t i e s of the variable quantities can be defined as:  -ib -  8p  i , h=l,  y.  h  The inverse p a r t i a l p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y f o r fixed inputs i s : 3w.  n. i  =  jk  x^  T-* 1  8 x  k  w  j , k=i,  —  j  ... J  and s i m i l a r l y : Sy.  x.  ?i_ ^  i 3w  ji  -i,  ... i  j - i ,  i- = 1, ... I  j=l,  p  3p.  w.  i  J  9 F i n a l l y the following r e l a t i o n s hold: ih  lh  h  hi  l  = c./v. = p. ./s. where  = P^y^/n  V. = x._./H 3  3 3  i s variable output i ' s share of national product, and  i s fixed input i ' s share of national product.  r  25  -  Two S t e p O p t i m i z a t i o n .  3.4  In  t h e c a s e w h e r e two o r more v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s  from the remaining q u a n t i t i e s , ^  t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n p r o c e s s can be  decomposed i n t o  two s t e p s a s f o l l o w s .  function  writtenras:  can be  t(y )  =  1  where y ,  variable quantities.  = ]  y  The f o l l o w i n g  goods and y  l' 2 y  1  if  0 0  "  "  1  2  no y ^ » y 2  t  -  1  e  x  i  s  which i s  i s the v e c t o r of  The v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  y  l  t  t  function  ^  1  >  2  remaining  then becomes:  -0' i-  ~  such that  the  weakly  2  2  t(y.)  = t(y|>;x)  s u b f u n c t i o n c a n now b e d e f i n e d :  y  if  transformation  the v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s  RCp-.z) = max tp.J_y.j_:  z_is a  the  2  separable from the other  P  Assume t h a t  t(y ;x)  denotes the v e c t o r of  n( ;x)  are separable  z=t(y ), p x  1  l  scalar.»Xthe;^aggregat*er.of.: theEy^s) ,--R  i s homogenous o f R(p-;z)  = z  0}  »  d e g r e e o n e , we may  i s r f c h e a r e v e n U e - f u n c t i o n and  write:  r(p-).  The o r i g i n a l p r o f i t m a x i m i z a t i o n p r o b l e m now b e c o m e s :  m  n(p;x)  a  X  z  y *  Z  ^  p  i )  +  p  2 2 y  :  "~ ''1'  =  t  ^ 2 '  X  ^ '  P  2  > > -  = -°° i f  no z y , 2  n(r(p ), 1  p ;x) 2  e x i s t s u c h t h a t ?-[YZ} =  t(y ;x) 2  ^  4.  4.1  26  -  FUNCTIONAL FORM AND ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE.  The T r a n s l o g V a r i a b l e P r o f i t The t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n a l  the v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  Function.  f o r m w i l l be u s e d i n t h i s  function.  t h e s i s to  The t r a n s c e n d e n t a l l o g a r i t h m i c  estimate  functional  f o r m has b e e n j p r o p o s e d by s e v e r a l a u t h o r s as a p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n  and  has s u b s e q u e n t l y been s u g g e s t e d as a s e c o n d o r d e r a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o  any  \ twice continuously d i f f e r e n t i a b l e  production or cost function  I  C h r i s t e n s e n , J o r g e n s o n and L a u ( 1 9 7 1 ) . no a p r i o r i  restrictions on the v a l u e of  transformation  quadratic  character,  the various e l a s t i c i t i e s  of  are imposed.  A second order approximation at profit  Because of i t s  by  f u n c t i o n It = n ( p ; x )  the expansion p o i n t  of  the  can be o b t a i n e d by t h e l o g a r i t h m i c  variable  Taylor  series expansion: ln n -  l n n(0)  +  I |isS_  l n p  4 3lnp.  r  2 H  3lnp.  |i2_n 4 9lnx.  i  2 , 1 v y.-'3 i n n +  i  . + ,  9  lnp  l  n  h  , p  i  l  n  l n x  j . 1I  p  h  +  1  I I a i n p .l l 3.  3lnx.  n  l  2  n  p  i  w h i c h c a n b e w r i t t e n more c o n v e n i e n t l y  In  Ji = a + I a. Q  Inp.  +  l,n X  j'  as:  \lh  ih  lnp.  lnp  + I . ln x. + | n* j \ lnx ln  6  + Ty  <5ij l n p .  jk  lnx.  V  2 v 8 in n arnx.Sln^  2  V v 3 ln n  _  h  » l r a c  , j  l n a i  k  - 27 where o b v i o u s l y  ==  Y ^  --d  considered as a f u n c t i o n a l  ^ = <J>  •  If  the t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n  form per s e , the e q u a l i t i e s  =  Y ^  is d  a n  <j>., = <> f a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y s a t i s f i e d , b u t may b e i m p o s e d w i t h o u t JK KJ loss of g e n e r a l i t y . " ^ By d e f i n i t i o n  the v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  function  is  any  l i n e a r homogenous  in  3  prices;  in  thej t r a n s l o g c a s e , we m u s t t h e r e f o r e  I <*. =  (i)  0 ^  In a d d i t i o n ,  if  •/_  ±  = 0  h  the v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  one i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s , (i)  IY  (ii) i  i  B, = 0  have  1^=0  (iii) i  function  is  (1974a));  (see D i e w e r t  J  a l s o homogenous o f  degree  t h e n we m u s t h a v e :  I  (ii)  <> f  = 0  I  (iii)  <5  Henceforth l i n e a r homogeneity i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s  = 0  will  be imposed 12  s i n c e our d a t a have been c o n s t r u c t e d on the b a s i s of Assuming that least  locally  conditions  (II),  Hotelling's  ( *. *) _ -£2  s  V  the t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  p  X  II(p*;x*)  ;  function  assumption. satisfies  at  lemma c a n b e a p p l i e d :  31nII(p*;x*)  x  '  P  this  y  31np.  a  i  y  ^ ih Y  i  n  p  h  j  the l i n e a r homogeneity i n p r i c e s , J S . = 1 . i The m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t i v i t y r e l a t i o n s a r e d e r i v e d s i m i l a r l y  ij  j  where, because of  W w **xX **  - «-nu _ p - _ - , _  - -  ?  as:  -  +  k and b e c a u s e o f  l i n e a r homogeneity i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s ,  £ V. = 1 .  j For the  translog functional  complementarity  and i n t e n s i t y y.-L.  fl  9  ih  -  ~  '.-  +  form,  the e l a s t i c i t i e s of  are:  S.S,  h  1  S . S ,  i  Y.J  h  h  '  4 ^  ^  3  h  fl  9  ii  "  _  i i  +  S. (S.  i  ~2 S. l  i  -  1)  transformation,  -  28  -  *kk v \  -  +  a  =  jk  5,.  ^  ^  Regularity  i _ V  Conditions;  The t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t regularity  kk  k  + S.V.  = S  4.2  i ^  V.V, J k  1 }  conditions  those conditions  (II).  function  Instead i t  does n o t ,  in general,  satisfy  w i l l be n e c e s s a r y to v e r i f y  do i n d e e d h o l d o v e r t h e o b s e r v e d r a n g e o f p r i c e s  that  and  quantities. Monotonicity  requires:^  (sign y)  S  ±  ±  (sign x ) V  This  > 0  i=l,  ...  I  > 0  j=l,  ...  J  c a n e a s i l y be v e r i f i e d  the S shares w i l l also imposed.  for  each o b s e r v a t i o n .  property  symmetry  f u n c t i o n must be c o n v e x i n p r i c e s and c o n c a v e i n  negative semi-definite. [y]  the e l a s t i c i t i e s 2 Hessian 9 n/9p.9p  of  condition i s  Or a l t e r n a t i v e l y  has to be p o s i t i v e complementarity  is  c o n d i t i o n s have to be v e r i f i e d :  A n e c e s s a r y and s u f f i c i e n t  transformation  The a d d i n g up  guarantee l i n e a r homogeneity i n p r i c e s i f  F i n a l l y the c u r v a t u r e  variable profit quantities.  y  the m a t r i x  semi-definite  that the  of  the  fixed  Hessian  elasticities  and the m a t r i x  [<f>] n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e .  can i n d e e d be w r i t t e n a s :  the  of  The  H = n p'  29  -  c p T H + S ^ - I )  where C  and C has t o be  y'  If  D is  21  +  Y  I1  +  for  a I by I m a t r i x o f  D is  1 2 S  2  + S  l  Y  2  2  + S  2  S  I 1 S  ^12 T l 2 f S  p o s i t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e as w e l l ,  C y > 0  x'D'  S  1  S  .  ( S  .  2  - 1 )  ...  Y  _  2  +  S  =  such t h a t y = D X and t  Now i f  Y  Y  S  I 2 S  Y  II  V l  +  S  i.e.  any y e R  full  rank,  t h e r e e x i s t s a n x i n R.  for  any y  therefore:  C D x > 0  for  any x e R  defined as:  1/S  ±  0  0 .  0  1/S,  0  D =  0 .  D i s indeed of s i m i l a r proof  full  . .1/S,  r a n k a n d D,' C D = [ 0 ]  a p p l i e s to  [a]  is positive semi-definite.  which i s negative semi-definite  if  and  2 only i f  the Hessian 3 Il/3x^3x^ i s negative s e m i - d e f i n i t e .  convenient to that,  for  compute t h e e i g e n v a l u e s o f b o t h m a t r i c e s a n d  It  is  verify  e a c h o b s e r v a t i o n , t h e y a l l a r e n o n - n e g a t i v e and n o n - p o s i t i v e  respectively.  A  3 0  r  Lau (1974a,b) makes i t  -  and J o r g e n s o n (1973)  p o s s i b l e to  impose the  correct  suggested a procedure which curvature  at  the  expansion  2 point.  The H e s s i a n 3 n / 3 p ^ 3 p ^ o f  expansion point  the t r a n s l o g p r o f i t  function  at  the  can be w r i t t e n a s :  H = e°o C At the expansion  C =  point:  Y  U  + a ^ - 1 )  y  Y  2 1  + a a  1  Y  Y  n  + a a  1  2  I  1 2  2 2  Y  I 2  +  aa  +  a (a -l)  x  2  2  Y  2  + aa z  Y  Y  2  1I  +  a  i  + a.a.  2 I  II  S i n c e any p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e m a t r i x  i  K  +  a I  (  a  " ) 1  I  is Choleski  decomposable, C can be w r i t t e n a s :  C = T D T'  where T i s  a unit  Furthermore f o r and s u f f i c i e n t  lower  triangular  C t o be p o s i t i v e condition is  Choleski values -  matrix  and D i s  (negative)  a diagonal  semi-definite,  a necessary  that a l l diagonal elements of D -  are p o s i t i v e  (negative).  Writing  matrix.  the  t h e s e e l e m e n t s as  2 (+)  d^^, it  techniques) point.  is  thus p o s s i b l e to e s t i m a t e the model ( u s i n g non  imposing the c o r r e c t  curvature  conditions at  the  linear expansion  -  4.3  31 -  Technological Change. It i s desirable to allow technological change to take place  and  the absence of such changes i n the technology i s a hypothesis which should be tested.  Several authors, i n p a r t i c u l a r Jorgenson ( 1 9 7 4 ) , have  suggested introducing e*" as an additional fixed input into the p r o f i t function.  Time i s thus treated as an additional fixed input, the r e n t a l  price of which i s zero. input.  Appelbaum and Harris (19>74) used t as the extra  Their treatment i s therefore e s s e n t i a l l y the same as Jorgenson's,  but i t requires, (using the translog functional form) an a r b i t r a r y 14  normalization of the time v a r i a b l e .  Instead of using the notion of a  missing input, we w i l l allow d i r e c t l y for factor augmenting disembodied technological progress, both at the input l e v e l and at the output level. Let us redefine our variables by specifying an exponential rate of technological change: q. = p. e i I v. = x. e i 3  Xj  3  ^±  t  1 = 1 ,  ... I and y =0 I  1 = 1 , . . . J  i s thus the observed fixed input quantity while v  quantity.  i s the augmented  S i m i l a r l y p^ i s the observed p r i c e of variable output i while  q^ i s the p r i c e of the augmented output.  Only I+J-l of the c o e f f i c i e n t s  can be independent which requires the normalization of one  coefficient.  This contrasts with the usual one output model where the normalization i s made i m p l i c i t l y on the output.  - 32 I n terms o f i t s augmented c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e t r a n s l o g profit  variable  f u n c t i o n becomes:  l n n(q;v) = a  + \ HY  + I  i h  + I a_ (lnp - y t ) L  Q  ( l n p . - y.t)  1  (lnp  B j C l n X j + X.t) + |  + £| 6  ± j  (lnp  - y.t)  ±  ±  -  h  ||<j> (ln j k  (lnx  )  V  + X.t) ( l n ^ + X t )  X j  f c  + X t)  .  T h i s c a n a l s o be w r i t t e n a s :  l n n(q;v) = C *  q  +I  + I B. l n x . + | l ^ +  where  &  T  Note t h a t  t  + -|  X  L  L  tt  a.  r  y  ih  h  •ij  x  t  t  t  + I B  ±  xj  4  4  xh x  5  i t  I <p  implies  =  0  = 0  lnp  ±h  l ±  n  P  h  lnx. l n ^  k  t + | t  j  lh  h  Y  S  lnp. t  ± t  2  X  j  jk k 4i,i-j  k  -j  k  l i n e a r homogeneity of the p r o f i t  i  (ii)  l n  = "I  t  jt  fixed input  •'(*> -'I  ±  t  it  r  j  lnp  ±  6.. lnp. lnx. + S t + £  H  I * .  +  a  __ - L J f ^ . j function  i n both p r i c e s and  that: f o r  I  for  Y  ±  i  I  h  = 0 and  l&  i  6  = 0 and  I*.  =0  ,  \f h , j  » 0 , Vj,k.  •-. 33 <5. it  a n d <f>. jt  can be r e w r i t t e n a s :  Y  6  it  -  -V  \l  X V _ " J>  h=l  j=l  •.t--X -J f i  and  c i ,  J  J  i'* i X* fc k- J i ,  ) +  ( x  x  )  J  similarly:  e  t  =  "j)  i ^i  a  (  V  "  + J  x  J=l  one e s t i m a t e s o n l y  solve for for  I -  I +'J  -  s  t  2 coefficients  1 terms y . i  a l l o w to  the ^ ^ '  - u i  solve for  and J while  X  the  a n  V"  <j "  ^3  1=1  If  X  A  +  J  J  +A  J  d  t h e <f>j 's, i t  is only possible  of  technological  change, or  t  1 t e r m s X. - X . 2 y last  alternatively  Estimating B  coefficient  to  would  t  h a s t o be n o r m a l i z e d .  J  Finally, similar •  o n <j>.  (J> to  w o u l d h a v e t o be c o n s t r a i n e d . introducing  e*" a s a f i x e d  input  This formulation except f o r  the  is  thus  constraint  15  tt  The s h a r e e q u a t i o n s now b e c o m e :  a. + 1 Y.xlnp. + I 6 . . l n x . + 6 . t = l ^ lh h ij 2 -t  S. -^M^l lnpv I V. j  In  =  —  8t  where change.  = B. + I 6 , . . l n p . J ^  j  + J d> l n x , + <f>. t = - J J K jt n M k  1  a d d i t i o n , we c a n d i f f e r e n t i a t e  9 Inn  '.•y  9 1 n x  a  t  = a  t  +  J 6i.t  L  lnp, + *i  L  II w i t h r e s p e c t  jt  j  T  tt  measures t h e p e r c e n t a g e change i n p r o f i t s Alternatively  the share equations  ^  1  T  I <j>. l n x . + <j> r  n  to  t:  t  due t o  technological  can be w r i t t e n a s :  - 34 -  s  _1M_ V i  i  31nq. i  =  n  w h e r e s ^ = y_^ e ^ i * " a n d  and  v  = w^ e  shadow v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s q.  a n d  =  MsIL _iL_i =  j  II  31nv. J  3*" a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y  and f i x e d  the  unobserved  quantity p r i c e s corresponding  to  v..  In  this  context,  technological  change can b e s a i d t o be H i c k s  neutral  when:  (i)  but  it  y.  i s not  neutral,  ,Vi  = y  (ii)  n e c e s s a r y t h a t y = X^  t h e <5 ' s , <> } , ' s .it jt  absence of  any t e c h n o l o g i c a l  t  necessarily Hicks  to  of  (in  addition  zero as w e l l ) .  zero then t e c h n o l o g i c a l  t h e t y p e y^ and X ^ .  the use of  Appelbaum and H a r r i s normalization of  4.4  c h a n g e 8.. i s  zero  Hicks  in  the  Moreover  change,.if  we c o u l d h a v e d e f i n e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l  factors  equivalent  t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s  if  any,  is  neutral."^  Alternatively  is  If  a n d d> ^ a r e a l l tt  t h e S ^ ' s a n d d>^.^*ss a r e a l l  exponential  X. - X , Vj  (1974)  Except f o r  time as an a d d i t i o n a l and t h e r e f o r e  change u s i n g  requires  g  fixed the  f c  a n d <|> ,  this  tt  input,  as  in  arbitrary  t.  S t o c h a s t i c S p e c i f i c a t i o n and E s t i m a t i o n T e c h n i q u e . All  estimations  estimators  h a v e b e e n made b y c o m p u t i n g maximum  u s i n g an a l g o r i t h m w h i c h a l l o w s f o r  i n the p a r a m e t e r s . w i t h respect to  The l o g a r i t h m o f  a l l parameters  covariance matrix  fi-.  -  i n the ''"  the  likelihood  t h e m o d e l t o be  likelihood  function  s y s t e m and w i t h r e s p e c t -  ;  •  nonlinear is to  maximized the  - 35 Assuming a j o i n t normal d i s t r i b u t i o n of the disturbances, we w i l l use the l i k e l i h o o d r a t i o t e s t to v e r i f y various hypotheses.  The  likeli-  hood r a t i o i s the r a t i o of the l i k e l i h o o d maximized under the n u l l hypothesis to the l i k e l i h o o d maximized under the a l t e r n a t i v e hypothesis. 2  Minus twice the logarithm of  t h i s r a t i o i s asymptotically x  distributed,  the number of degrees of freedom being equal to the number of a d d i t i o n a l constraints required by the a l t e r n a t i v e hypothesis. I t i s assumed that IT i s an exact representation of the a c t u a l technology and that any d e v i a t i o n of the shares S's and V's from the p r o f i t maximizing  (cost minimizing) shares are random.  A vector of random  disturbances e' = (e_ , ... e.I£j")_) such that ? e. = 0 and T I T t It' 't' . it I+J 1=1 \ e = 0 i s thus s p e c i f i e d . The e's are assumed to be i d e n t i c a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d normal random vectors w i t h mean vector zero and covariance L  matrix Q.  The disturbances are thus allowed to be contemporaneously  c o r r e l a t e d (the covariance between the e r r o r term of a v a r i a b l e quantity share equation and the e r r o r term of a f i x e d quantity share equation be non z e r o ) , but they are s p e c i f i e d as temporally independent. both tihe_S and the V shares sum up to one, fi w i l l be s i n g u l a r and  may  Since two  equations (one f o r the v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s one f o r the f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s ) may be dropped.  The estimation however does not depend on which two  equations are dropped.  5.  E M P I R I C A L RESULTS  5.1  Aggregate Model  36 -  The t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  f u n c t i o n was e s t i m a t e d w i t h y e a r l y  to describe the Canadian p r i v a t e  economy, 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 .  The  data  following  v a r i a b l e s were i n c l u d e d i n the model: (i)  variable  quantities  1. i Imports  (M)  2. i Exports  (X)  3 . C'Taxation o n i n t e r m e d i a t e  (ii)  All  4.  Investment  5.  C o n s u m p t i o n + G o v e r n m e n t p u r c h a s e s (C)  fixed  + final  transactions  s t o c k of  (T)  inventories  quantities  1.  Labour s e r v i c e s  (L)  2.  Capital Services + i n i t i a l  stock of  inventories  d a t a a r e d e s c r i b e d and r e p o r t e d i n the a p p e n d i x .  to have i n c l u d e d t a x a t i o n on i n t e r m e d i a t e input.  stock of  other inputs  may seem u n u s u a l  t r a n s a c t i o n s as a v a r i a b l e  l i k e any o t h e r  inventories enter  of view since  and f o r  input.  to  Similarly,  the  the productive process along w i t h  and t h e i r v a l u e i s a c o s t t o  c o n s i d e r e d as a f i x e d i n p u t  the i n d u s t r y .  They a r e  thus  c o n v e n i e n c e were aggregated w i t h  F i n a l i n v e n t o r i e s were i n c l u d e d s i n c e they are an output  t h e p r o d u c t i v e p r o c e s s and t h e i r v a l u e i s a r e v e n u e t o It  (K)  t r a n s a c t i o n s a r e t a x e d and thus r e p r e s e n t a c o s t  the p r i v a t e business s e c t o r j u s t  capital.  It  T h i s i s however n e c e s s a r y from an a c c o u n t i n g p o i n t  most i n t e r m e d i a t e  initial  (I)  i s assumed t h a t t h e q u a n t i t y  and t h a t t h e i r  of  final  inventories  the  of  industry.  i s a choice variable  p r i c e i s exogenous.  The m o d e l was i n i t i a l l y  estimated after  disaggregating imports  and  18 exports into four  classes each.  The r e s u l t s however t u r n e d o u t  d i s a p p o i n t i n g s i n c e t h e own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f  several variable  t o be  - 37 quantities for  (exports  of  raw m a t e r i a l s ,  some o b s e r v a t i o n s ,  imports  of  exports  of  finished products  raw m a t e r i a l s )  a d d i t i o n many e l a s t i c i t i e s w e r e e x t r e m e l y  had the wrong s i g n .  unstable over  be e x p l a i n e d b y t h e p r e s e n c e o f v e r y s m a l l s h a r e s : a c t u a l s h a r e s becomes r e l a t i v e l y elasticities difficulty  of  equations  transformation  obtaining  and the  impractical to  of  of  imports  import  as a f u n c t i o n types.  In  of  and e x p o r t s ,  the r e l a t i v e  p r i c e s of  the second step the o p t i m a l  and a g g r e g a t e e x p o r t s a r e d e t e r m i n e d output  export  together  we d r o p p e d t h e the f o l l o w i n g «  m  step,  determined or  aggregate  export imports  w i t h the o p t i m a l  domestic  consumption and the  capital  technical  change  (Model  e q u a t i o n s and were l e f t  system:  l  s  l  S  2  a  S  3  S  4  V  l  2  a  3  m  h  12  15  6  11  8  Y  25  6  21  &  34  Y  35  6  31  6  32  Y  44  Y  45  \l'  6  42  6  41  6  51  •ll  _l  Y  12  Y  13  Y  14  Y  Y  12  Y  22  Y  23  Y  24  Y  13  Y  23  Y  33  Y  Y  14  Y  24  Y  34  6  I1  6  2-i  6  31  Y  22  *12  lnp  1  lnp  2  lnp  3  l  n  1),  with  m  a  m  first  m  __  thus  mix.  E s t i m a t i n g t h e s e v e n good model w i t h o u t  »  of  is  the  the v a r i o u s import quantity  and,  separately It  In  mix are  therefore  and e x p o r t s )  revenue f u n c t i o n .  m i x and the o p t i m a l  very  to estimate  t a k e s p l a c e i n two s t e p s .  the  simultaneous  We d e c i d e d  imports  the  the  Finally  eleven  size.  (aggregated  and an e x p o r t  assumed t h a t o p t i m i z a t i o n  this  T h i s may  directly  e x e r c i s e w o u l d h a v e made i t  s e v e n good model  cost function  affects  and t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s .  to proceed w i t h a model of  assuming s e p a r a b i l i t y  the o p t i m a l  this  time.  In  any d e v i a t i o n from  convergence i n a system of  cost of  use i n s t e a d the  an import  l a r g e and t h i s  and,  P  4  lnp  5  lnx^ lnx  0  ~ 38 T h e r e a r e 40 p a r a m e t e r s 6's  i n the  system.  S i n c e some o f  a p p e a r more t h a n once t h e y have t o be r e s t r i c t e d  w h i c h i m p o s e s 10 " s y m m e t r y " profit  function  is linear  constraints.  In  to  addition,  a unique  homogenous i n p r i c e s b y d e f i n i t i o n , degree z e r o i n b o t h p r i c e s and  T h i s l e a d s t o ,10 a d d i t i o n a l  "homogeneity"  20 p a r a m e t e r s  In  to estimate. a later  Y = C -  order  constraints,  to allow f o r  s t a g e , the m a t r i x  [y]  the  a-Co^-l)  a  a  a (a ~l).  a  2  making use of  a  2  ±  a_ a  share  l e a v i n g us curvature  constraints  was w r i t t e n a s :  the  a  .  2  a  1  2  a  .  .  . a  l  t TDT'  a  (a  -1)  C i s w r i t t e n as;  •  • •  1  0 .  0  0  t  21 1  =  hi This transformation  1  form:  ®2 i  Choleski decomposition,  n  the  I  a  d-  i n the system.  the  B  B =  C =  variable  quantities.  where C has been e x p l a i n e d i n s e c t i o n 4 . 3 above and B i s o f  while,  and  value  s i n c e the  e q u a t i o n s a r e homogenous o f  t o be i m p o s e d a t  the y ' s  0  I2  fc  does o b v i o u s l y not  affect  Their values are reported  0  0  t h e number o f  in table  I,  column  free 1.  parameters  .  t.  - 39 We next tested the homogeneity and the symmetry hypotheses.  The  model was therefore reestimated without imposing the corresponding restrictions.  The s t a t i s t i c s of the l i k e l i h o o d r a t i o t e s t s are reported  i n table I I I .  E i t h e r hypothesis, and the j o i n t hypothesis as w e l l ,  were r e j e c t e d . Symmetry and homogeneity are however imposed i n the remaining part of t h i s t h e s i s as a maintained hypothesis.  I t may appear  s u r p r i s i n g to use as a maintained hypothesis a hypothesis wbich has j u s t been r e j e c t e d by a t e s t .  However i t i s c l e a r that both symmetry  and homogeneity are part of our t h e o r e t i c a l framework.  Although symmetry  could be dropped f o r instance i f we merely wished to have estimates of ordinary p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s , i t cannot i f we want to model s u b s t i t u t i o n possibilities.  Moreover i f symmetry were dropped, the demand and supply  equations would not be i n t e g r a b l e , i . e . there would not e x i s t a p r i m i t i v e f u n c t i o n from which they can be derived and the model would be based on nearly no theory. tests c a l l  C l e a r l y a b e t t e r theory i s desired and our  f o r i t , but i t would be p o i n t l e s s i n the meantime to r e j e c t  our theory i n favour of no theory a t a l l . F i n a l l y , i t may a l s o be argued that i t may be d e s i r a b l e to force the world i n t o an a p r i o r i t h e o r e t i c a l model i n order to p a r t i a l l y overcome e r r o r s i n v a r i a b l e s as w e l l as to make a b s t r a c t i o n s of many of the economy's complexities i n order to be able to discuss anything a t a l l . C a l c u l a t i n g the f i t t e d shares, the various e l a s t i c i t i e s were computed and we found that the own e l a s t i c i t i e s of transformation of the investment and the consumption v a r i a b l e s had c o n s i s t e n t l y the wrong sign. The estimated p r o f i t f u n c t i o n therefore could not be convex i n p r i c e s , although i t was concave i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s .  This l e d us to make a non-  parametric t e s t on our data and i t appeared t h a t , with only very few  - 40 exceptions,  for  any y e a r t ,  our d a t a were c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p r o f i t  maximiz19  ation for  years preceeding t,  but not  One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r progress. to s h i f t  (model 2 ) .  statistics  Model 1 allows f o r the absence of  for  allows for  technological  w h i c h can be t e s t e d f o r . change i n  thisrsense  unconstrained  technology and s u p p l y  all  Hicks neutral  be  Model 2 but  (i.e.  includes  model  1)  technological  change), t h i s  alternative  In  the remaining p a r t of  this  thesis,  shift  o v e r t i m e i n a way t o  affect  own e l a s t i c i t i e s  the monotonicity  the  the  demand  had t h e r i g h t  After  requirements.  s i g n and t h e r e f o r e  computing the eigenvalues of  m a t r i c e s , we f o u n d h o w e v e r t h a t t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  a g a i n was n o t fixed  (with  functions.  economically meaningful. a n d [(pj  II  hypothesis being the presence of  L i k e model 1, model 2 f u l f i l l e d addition  estimated^;)  change a s a s p e c i a l case  disembodied t e c h n o l o g i c a l 20  i s allowed to  Table  a more g e n e r a l n a t u r e ,  the n u l l  h y p o t h e s i s was r e j e c t e d .  I.  parameters,  t e c h n o l o g i c a l change o n l y  s i n c e B._ i s n o t  Testing for  (i.e.  technology  change as a s p e c i a l c a s e w h i c h cannot  change o f  technological  the  b o t h model 1 and 2;  technological  i n our framework  table  t.  technological  t i m e 25 f r e e  i n column 2 o f  Hicks neutral  tested for  Hicks neutral  reestimated allowing  There were t h i s  the v a l u e s of which are r e p o r t e d summarizes the  y e a r s subsequent to  t h i s w o u l d be t h e p r e s e n c e o f  The m o d e l was t h e r e f o r e over time  for  inputs.  convex i n p r i c e s , although Recalling that  convexity  assumption of p r o f i t maximization, model i m p o s i n g c o n v e x i t y decomposition  (model 2 C ) .  at  it  as b e f o r e  it  in prices i s  the  the  [yJ  function  i m p l i e d by  t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t by the The v a l u e s o f  appeared  was c o n c a v e  was d e s i r a b l e t o  In  in  the  reestimate  the  Choleski  coefficients  o f m o d e l 2C  are reported  i n the l a s t  column o f  system a r e a g a i n summarized i n again for  41  table  table  I.  II.  The s t a t i s t i c s  Monotonicity  of  was  the  fulfilled  each o b s e r v a t i o n , and the e s t i m a t e d v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  was now c o n v e x i n p r i c e s f o r  function  the y e a r s 1948, 1953-54, 1957-59  and  ^-21 1961-62.  T a b l e s V and VI  transformation  and p r i c e  contain  elasticities.  t e c h n o l o g i c a l parameters y ^ and \ equations  the estimated e l a s t i c i t i e s  sum up t o o n e , i t  of  F i n a l l y the values of  were c a l c u l a t e d .  the  Since the  i s not p o s s i b l e to i d e n t i f y  share  all y's  and X ' s  22 individually  and they a r e r e p o r t e d  in  table  IV as d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h  coefficientsfsf-orvsconsumptibn^.ggodssand'ccapitaligoods  the  respectively.  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o compare o u r e s t i m a t e s o f i m p o r t and e x p o r t p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s w i t h those of other authors. I m p o r t s seem t o b e more p r i c e e l a s t i c ( e , „ , f r o m - 2 . 7 i n 1948 t o - 2 . 5 i n 1972) t h a n i s o f t e n MM thought (e  to be the  ranging  case.  E x p o r t s , though  f r o m 2 . 4 i n 1948 t o 1 . 7  less price  i n 1972)  elastic  nevertheless  than  imports  appear to  be  23 quite  sensitive  partly  to  the  to p r i c e  fact  that  t h a n i n most o t h e r still  This result  may b e due  i n o u r m o d e l d o m e s t i c o u t p u t i s more  empirical studies,  although imports  disaggregated  and e x p o r t s  are  aggregated. Looking at  and i n v e s t m e n t i n the p r i c e of held constant, output.  the  cross e l a s t i c i t i e s ,  there  is  evidence that  goods a r e complements i n p r o d u c t i o n , one o u t p u t ,  l e a d s t o an i n c r e a s e i n  the p r o d u c t i o n of  the p r o d u c t i o n  of  the  quantities  the  other  and consumption g o o d s , as w e l l  goods and c o n s u m p t i o n g o o d s , a r e s u b s t i t u t e s  an i n c r e a s e i n  exports  meaning t h a t an i n c r e a s e  a l l o t h e r p r i c e s a n d £he f i x e d  On t h e o t h e r h a n d , e x p o r t  investment i.e.  changes as w e l l .  in  production,  p r i c e o f one o u t p u t w o u l d y i e l d a d e c r e a s e  the other  output.  Similarly,  it  as  appears that  in  both  - 42 exports and investment goods are intensive i n imports, meaning that an increase i n the price of either output, other prices and a l l fixed quantities being held constant, would lead to an increase terms) i n the quantity of imports.  (in absolute  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , an increase i n the  price of imports would y i e l d a decrease i n the output of either exports or investment goods, but an increase i n the output of consumption goods. Turning towards fixed inputs, c a p i t a l and labour are  obviously  substitutes f o r each other, but i n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, the e l a s t i c i t y of substitution between labour and c a p i t a l i s very close to 1 and i s extremely stable over time.  Not surprisingly i t appears that an  increase  i n either labour or c a p i t a l would lead to an increase of both consumption goods and investment goods.  More surprising i s the r e s u l t that an  increase i n the c a p i t a l stock would actually lead to an absolute f a l l i n exports and i n imports, or i n other words, that either a f a l l i n the p r i c e of imports or a raise i n the price of exports would actually lower the rate of return to c a p i t a l . i n the quantity m  The implication i s that an  of labour would y i e l d a more than proportional  increase increase  • _ either imports or exports. 24 It i s tempting to define the r e l a t i v e factor i n t e n s i t y of an output  according to the r e l a t i v e e f f e c t of a change i n the corresponding output price on factor r e n t a l p r i c e s .  That i s , variable quantity i w i l l be said  to be r e l a t i v e l y labour (capital) intensive i f an increase i n the p r i c e of i would lead to a proportionally higher increase i n the return to labour (capital) than i n the return to c a p i t a l (labour).  By this  d e f i n i t i o n , exports appear to be r e l a t i v e l y labour intensive. imports appear to be r e l a t i v e l y c a p i t a l intensive.  Similarly  To a much smaller  43 extent,  c o n s u m p t i o n goods a r e f o u n d t o be r e l a t i v e l y  investment  goods a p p e a r t o be r e l a t i v e l y  t h a t we f o u n d e a r l i e r imported  that investment  labour intensive.  and  Recall  goods were a l s o i n t e n s i v e  in  goods.  Concerning taxes on i n t e r m e d i a t e these t a x e s and i m p o r t s  transactions,  it  appears  a r e complements i n p r o d u c t i o n .  goods a r e t a x i n t e n s i v e f o r for  capital intensive  about h a l f  1 9 4 8 a n d f r o m 1962 o n , b u t  of  that  Consumption  the observed p e r i o d ; goods a r e i . n o t .  investment  i;e.,  Exports  h o w e v e r a p p e a r t o b e t a x i n t e n s i v e , w h i c h may seem somwhat  surprising  s i n c e the  exports  intermediate products entering  the p r o d u c t i o n of  are  25 exempted from t a x e s . decrease i n  the r a t e  Taking our r e s u l t s of  output of  their  t a x a t i o n on i n t e r m e d i a t e  lead to i n c r e a s e d i m p o r t s , goods w h i l e  at  transactions  and t o a h i g h e r o u t p u t o f  investment  l a b o u r would i n c r e a s e but because of  intensity  of  the r a t e of  r e t u r n to  The r a t e  the r e l a t i v e  c a p i t a l would  a  would  e x p o r t s and  goods w o u l d d e c r e a s e .  r e t u r n to  taxation,  face value,  consumption of  capital actually  decrease. With r e s p e c t to input side,  technological progress i s  the output s i d e , output of imports goods,  the time c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  it  appears t h a t ,  relatively  t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s b i a s e d ,  consumption goods, i n favour  or exports.  That i s ,  t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s  of  compared t o investment  on  the  labour saving.  On  relatively  investment  against  the  goods and a g a i n s t  the p r o d u c t i o n of  consumption  good augmenting and i m p o r t s  t o b e more a f f e c t e d b y t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s t h a n  exports.  appear  5.2  44  -  Import and E x p o r t Submodels. Two s e p a r a t e s u b m o d e l s w e r e e s t i m a t e d , o n e f o r  cost function) imports  a n d one f o r  exports  (translog  and e x p o r t s were d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o 1.  Live animals, food,  2.  Crude m a t e r i a l s ,  3.  Fabricated materialsj  4-.  End p r o d u c t s ,  the end p r o d u c t  of both  tested both  submodels f o r  inedible.  inedible. four  e q u a t i o n s and f o r  are reported  the export  there  the element of  are 9 parameters  case, but  to  As i t  After  be [y]  are  t h e m a t r i c e s T and D.  symmetry and h o m o g e n e i t y .  in table IX.  case.  estimation  L i k e i n the aggregate model, the  h y p o t h e s i s c o u l d not be r e j e c t e d  import  categories:  submodels were C h o l e s k i • d e c o m p o s e d and o u r r e s u l t s i n terms of  for  four  Both  e q u a t i o n was d r o p p e d i n e a c h s y s t e m .  system.  i n table VII  tests  revenue f u n c t i o n ) .  inedible.  i m p o s i n g symmetry and h o m o g e n e i t y , estimated i n either  (translog  f e e d , b e v e r a g e s and t o b a c c o .  We h a v e t w o . s e p a r a t e s y s t e m o f purposes,  imports  turned out  forttheimport  the  matrices  presented We n e x t  The r e s u l t s o f homogeneity  submodel a l t h o u g h i t  was  The s y m m e t r y h y p o t h e s i s h o w e v e r was r e j e c t e d  c o u l d not be r e j e c t e d  in  the  the export  submodel.  in  In  the  r e m a i n i n g e s t i m a t i o n s h o w e v e r , b o t h symmetry and h o m o g e n e i t y w i l l  be  imposed as p a r t  the  of  our maintained hypotheses.  own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s that the attempted  curvature  to only l i t t l e  (or  crude m a t e r i a l s of  both models, i t  c o n d i t i o n s were s a t i s f i e d i n n e i t h e r  to allow for  cost function  of  From i n s p e c t i o n of  Hicks neutral  improvement.  appeared  case.  We  t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i n c l u d i n g  the revenue f u n c t i o n  as the  the  c a s e may b e ) , b u t  this  the led  -  45  -  We t h e n r e e s t i m a t e d b o t h s u b m o d e l s i m p o s i n g n e g a t i v e a n d s e m i - d e f i n i t n e s s by c o n s t r a i n i n g the s i g n of MC a n d X C ) .  The c o r r e s p o n d i n g e s t i m a t e s o f  s t a t i s t i c s of  T a b l e s X and X I  transformation  and s u b s t i t u t i o n  t o s u b m o d e l s MC a n d X C . observation.  Both the  the m o n o t o n i c i t y  the parameters and  the  and i n t a b l e  and the p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s  A l l own e l a s t i c i t i e s h a v e c o r r e c t cost function  Regarding the c u r v a t u r e  subsystem i s  concave f o r  each  satisfy and  c o n d i t i o n s we f o u n d t h a t  the  t h e y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 1 , 1966 a n d 1 9 7 2 . conditions for  of  sign for  observed p r i c e s  convexity  VIII  corresponding  and the revenue f u n c t i o n  c o n d i t i o n s over the range of  submodel s a t i s f i e s the  (submodels  c o n t a i n the estimated e l a s t i c i t i e s  quantities.  export  the elements of D  t h e two s y s t e m s a r e r e p o r t e d i n t a b l e V I I  respectively.  positive  import  The  the years 1951-62,  1 9 6 4 , 1 9 6 7 - 6 9 and 1 9 7 2 . For both imports substitutes materials,  for  We  In  case however,  o n l y f r o m 1959 o n .  have t o remember, however, i n the  imports or exports  sense t h a t  vary.  crude  also  f a b r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s , are quite  that those p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s are  constant, while  e x p o r t s were a l l o w e d to  fabricated  The own p r i c e  Imports but  they were e s t i m a t e d h o l d i n g  are  complements  f o o d p r o d u c t s and o f  f o r most components, e s p e c i a l l y f o r and o f  f o o d and  and end p r o d u c t s , a r e  In a d d i t i o n , imports of  crude m a t e r i a l s  elasticities  a p p e a r s t h a t most components  either  a r e complements as w e l l , but  elasticities exports of  each, o t h e r s .  it  as w e l l as crude m a t e r i a l s  in production. materials  and e x p o r t s ,  for small. partial  aggregate  i n the aggregate model, imports  and  - 46 6.  CONCLUSIONS It would appear that t h i s alternative approach to the estimation  of  import and export functions,proposed i n this thesis, i s very  promising.  Not only are the import and export functions derived within  a more general and more rigorous t h e o r e t i c a l framework, but one obtains a much, larger variety of information about imports and exports, namely how they r e l a t e to other aggregates of the economy.  Thus we found that  exports and investment goods were complements i n production and that they were both import intensive.  We also found that imports were c a p i t a l  intensive and exports labour intensive, to the point actually where an exogenous increase of the c a p i t a l stock would result i n a f a l l of both imports and exports.  A f a l l i n the p r i c e of imports would thus lead  to an increase i n the rental p r i c e of labour while i t would lower i n absolute terms the rental price of c a p i t a l . i f the p r i c e of exports f e l l .  The opposite would be true  The own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s of imports and  exports appear to be somewhat higher than i t i s usually thought. Disaggregating traded goods, we found evidence of complementarity i n production, and t h i s holds both f o r imports and f o r exports, between food products and fabricated materials on one hand, and between crude materials and end products on the other hand. Factor augmenting technological change i n a multi-input multioutput framework has been .modelled.  Hicks neutral technological change  was included as a special case which was tested f o r and rejected.  We  found that technological change was labour saving and investment goods augmenting and that i t affected exports less than the other outputs. The model also allows f o r the effects of changes i n various government  - 47 p o l i c y parameters to be r e a d i l y c a l c u l a t e d , e.g. changes i n t a r i f f s or intermediate taxes.  I n d i r e c t taxes on intermediate products were  e x p l i c i t l y d e a l t . w i t h , and we found that a decrease i n these taxes would lead to an increase i n both imports and exports. I t should be r e c a l l e d that t h i s model i s e s s e n t i a l l y short-run i n nature:  o p t i m i z a t i o n i s assumed to be instantaneous and p r i c e s are  taken as exogenous.  The main assumption on:which the model i s based,  i . e . p e r f e c t competition and p r o f i t maximization are of course very restrictive,  but are very common both i n e m p i r i c a l studies and i n the  pure theory of i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade. The further use of subsystems would allow us to disaggregate the model even more and keep i t s t h e o r e t i c a l consistency. A s e p a r a b i l i t y assumption i s however required each time.  In some cases t h i s may  not  be d e s i r a b l e and i t then would be p r e f e r a b l e to disaggregate only one or two sectors at a time.  Thus i t would be of i n t e r e s t to disaggregate  somewhat the labour sector or the c a p i t a l sector and t e s t whether a l l labour or c a p i t a l components are separable from the remaining inputs and outputs of the economy, i n which case they can be aggregated.  If  they are not separable, one could determine f o r instance which imports or exports i f increased are most l i k e l y to lead to an increase i n the demand f o r a p a r t i c u l a r type of labour or which c a p i t a l component, i f increased, may lead to a decrease i n imports or an increase i n exports.  In the non separable case, aggregation could then only be  c a r r i e d out without e r r o r s i f Hicks' Aggregation Theorem a p p l i e d . The c o n s t r u c t i o n of p r i c e and quantity components of Canadian foreign trade has revealed some of the d i f f i c u l t i e s of b u i l d i n g time  - 48 series on a consistent c l a s s i f i c a t i o n basis.  We nevertheless believe  that the series which were compiled i n this study represent actual trends i n Canadian external trade.  The p r i c e series we constructed at  the section l e v e l for imports and exports appear to be the only subaggregate series of Canadian foreign trade covering the entire post war period.  At a time when there i s i n Canada a concerted e f f o r t to  construct time series for various domestic v a r i a b l e s , we hope that this study w i l l f i l l a gap and w i l l be a useful data base for further research i n international trade and the testing of n e o c l a s s i c a l production theory.  - 49 Table  I.  Parameter estimates of Canadian p r i v a t e  Parameter  a 1 a  2  a  3  a  4  h Hi t  32  fc  41  fc  42  fc  43  d  l  d  2  d  3  d  4 6 11  8  31  6 41  translog variable profit  function for  economy 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 ( s t a n d a r d e r r o r  Model 1  -0.161 (0.003)  Model 2  aggregate  i n parantheses).  M o d e l 2C  -0.154  (0.003)  -0.154  (0.003)  0.160  (0.004)  0.143  (0.004)  0.144  (0.004)  -0.041  (0.001)  -0.039  (0.001)  -0.039  (0.001)  0.342  (0.006)  0.351  (0.004)  0.349  (0.005)  0.576  (0.003)  0.563  (0.003)  0.565  (0.004)  -0.543  (0.157)  -0.682  (0.164)  -0.774  (0.178)  0.084  (0.037)  0.019  (0.037)  0.019  (0.047)  5.377(48.657)  -0.390  (0.537)  (0.147)  -0.493  (0.183)  19.871(270.701)  -5.683(47.231)  0.509  (1.440)  17.308(534.027)  -0.865  (1.360)  2.533(11.270)  -1,504(19.756) -0.779  (0.181)  -0.519  0.454  (0.070)  0.409  (0.066)  0.652  (0.056)  0.009  (0.121)  -0.013  (0.115)  0.338  (0.195)  0.015  (0.270)  0.381  (3.359)  0.119  (0.143)  0.059  (0.126)  -0.00002(25058)  8.985(255.395) 0.011  (0.022)  -0.132  (0.040)  -0.121  (0.048)  -0.078  (0.034)  0.228  (0.056)  0.174  (0.070)  -0.008  (0.006)  -0.057  (0.011)  -0.063  (0.016)  0.076  (0.038)  -0.040  (0.055)  0.016  (0;083  -  T a b l e I,  120  *lt *2t  *3t *4t *6t  for  -  continued.  •ll  Note:  50  (0.015)  0.058  (0.042)  0.013  (2.376)  -  -0.005  (0.001)  -0.005  (0.001)  -  0.008  (0.002)  0.007  (0.002)  -  -0.002  (0.0003)  -0.002  -  -0.002  (0.002)  -0.0003(0.003)  -  0.005  (0.001)  model 2C, the v a l u e s corresponding to  estimates  for  +./|d^  0.004  (0.0005)  (0.002)  d ^ , d^, d^ a n d d ^  are  Table  51  -  II.  Statistics  of  the aggregate  model. Model 1  Equation  R  2  Model 2  DW  R  2  M o d e l 2C _2  DW  DW  R  Imports  (M)  0.536  1.608  0.648  1.475  0.642  1.462  Exports  (X)  0.408  0.324  0.810  1.398  0.761  1.089  Ind.  (T)  0.399  0.936  0.618  1.235  0.126  0.738  Investment  (I)  -0.199  0.913  0.775  0.995  0.606  0.618  Labour  (L)  0.833  0.667  0.921  1.535  0.868  0.918  Table  Taxation  III.  Test s t a t i s t i c s ,  aggregate  C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy  1948-1972.  2 Test  Restrictions  C r i t i c a l Value  •  x  (0.01) Homogeneity Symmetry(conditional Homogeneity  on homog.)  & Symmetry  T e c h n o l o g i c a l change Tech.  change, convexity  imposed  10  23.21  115.714  10  23.21  73.986  20  37.57  189.700  5  15.09  91.658  5  15.09  74.462  - 52 Table IV.  Rates of exponential t e c h n o l o g i c a l economy 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 ( M o d e l 2 C ) .  y  M "  \~ M  y  Table  T "  i  y  c  =  -0.072  y  c  =  -0.132  Y  =  " c y  =  change, aggregate  A  L  -  Canadian  private  X -= 0.182 K  -0.291 OOC033  V.  E l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y and i n t e n s i t y for s e l e c t e d y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 , a g g r e g a t e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy ( m o d e l  Elasticity  1948  1955  1961  0  17.230  17.226  11967  "1972  1-7.811  14.035  12.781  13.940  14.132  14.794  10.419  9.116  1.246  1.283  1.296  1.229  1.203  3.533  3.722  3.885  3.420  3.316  -1.036  -0.967  -0.975  -0.710  -0.590  16.158  16.715  17.786  10.659  8.744  7.456  8.516  8.928  6.746  6.009  3.910  4.174  4.382  3.665  3.500  MM  0  MX  0 0  MT MI  0 MC  0 XX  0 0  XT XI  2C)  - 53 Table V, continued.  -2.105  -2.045  -2.074  -1.500  -1.278  18.336  20.163  20.516  19.173  18.476  -0.293  -0.594  -0.696  -0.511  -0.462  0.058  -0.044  -0.052  0.033  0.090  1.413  1.683  1.840  1.768  1.860  -0.890  -0.962  -0.999  -0.997  -1.021  0.753  0.720  0.705  0.718  0.711  -0.991  -0.850  -0.772  -0.674  -0.607  1.001  1.001  1.001  1.001  1.001  -1.011  -1.178  -1.297  -1.485  -1.649  2.528  2.420  2.390  2.120  2.008  -0/544  -0.672  -0.802  -0.662  -0.661  3.306  3.175  3.141  2.620  2.429  -1.329  -1.561  -1.775  -1.404  -1.355  TL  3.692  3.870  3.822  3.413  3.198  TK  -1.720  -2.380  -2.658  -2.581  4-2.621  1.082  1.082  1.081  1.075  1.074  0.917  0.904  0.895  0.888  0.878  0.981  0.983  0.984  0.985  0.986  1.019  1.020  1.020  1.022  1.024  XC TT 'TI TC II 'IC 'CC 'LL 'LK KK ML MK r  XL  r  XK  lit  II IK  CL CK  Table  54  -  VI,  e, n» S a n d p e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r s e l e c t e d y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 , C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy ( m o d e l 2 C ) .  Elasticity  MM  E  e MX £  MT  E  MI  G  MC  S  XM  e  xx  £  xi  £  xc  e e e e e e e e  TM TX TT TI TC IM IX IT  e  II  E  IC  £  CM  E  CX  aggregate  1948  1955  1961  1967  1972  -2.719  -2.719  -2.750  -2.542  -2.469  2.093  2.091  2.130  1.873  1.783  -0.058  -0.052  -0.051  -0.053  -0.055  1.373  1.346  1.355  1.212  1.151  -0.689  -0.666  -0.683  -0.490  -0.411  -2.200  42.231  -2.284  -1.887  -1.761  2.426  2.473  2.561  1.916  1.710  -0.345  -0.343  -0.351  -0.293  -0.275  1.519  1.509  1.528  1.299  1.215  -1.401  -1.408  -1.454  -1.035  -0.890  -0.197  -0.202  -0.200  -0.223  -0.232  1.120  1.260  1.285  1.213  1.175  -0.848  -0.813  SO:. 806  -0.832  -0.845  -0.114  -0.215  -0.243  -0.181  -0.161  0.039  -0.030  -0.037  0.023  0.063  -0.558  -0.587  -0.600  -0.619  -0.641  eo.587  v.0.618  0.631  0.659  0.685  0.014  0.024  0.027  0.022  0.021  0.549  0.609  0.642  0.627  0.646  -0.663  -0.700  -0.688  -0.711  0.163  0.153  0.151  0.129  0.114  -0.316  -0.303  -0.299  -0.270  -0.250  -0.592  .  - 55 TABLE VI, continued CT E  CI E  CC  \L  -0.003  0.002  0.002  -0.001  -0.004  -0.346  -0.348  -0.348  -0.353  -0.355  0.501  0.496  0.494  0.496  0.495  -0.436  -0.403  -0.378  -0.498  -0.460J  0.498  0.460  0.436  0.403  0.378  0.503  0.541  0.565  0.598  0.623  -0.503  -0.541  -0.565  -0.598  -0.623  1.270  1.309  1.349  1.266  1.250  -0.270  -0.309  -0.349  -0.266  -0.250  1.661  1.717  1.773  1.565  1.512  -0.661  -0.717  -0.773  -0.565  -0.512  1.856  2.093  2.158  2.039  1.990  TL ^TK  -0.856  -1.093  -Oi.158  -1.039  -0.990  5  _L  0.544  0.585  0.610  0.642  0.668  ?  IK  CO/456  0.415  0.390  0.358  0.332  5  CL  0.493  0.532  0.556  0.588  0.613  ?  CK  0.507  0.468  0.444  0.412  0.387  P  LM  -0.399  -0.382  -0.369  -0.384  -0.388  P  LX  -0'.496  0.470  • 004452  00.471  0.475  P  LT  -0.171  -0.156  -0.150  -0.148  -0.146  P  LI  0.420  0.391  0.377  0.381  0.373  P  LC  0.653  0.677  0.690  0.680  0.686  P  KM  0.086  0.106  0.124  0.120  0.128  P  KX  -0.200  -0.231  -0.256  -0.252  -0.265  0.080  0.096  0.104  0.112  0.120  0.356  0.327  0.312  0.315  0.305  0.678  0.702  0.715  0.706  0.713  \K KL  n  KK  n  ^ML MK  ?  ^XL ?  XK  ?  p  KT  VP  KC  Table  56  -  VII.  P a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s o f t r a n s l o g c o s t and revenue f u n c t i o n s f o r C a n a d i a n f o r e i g n t r a d e 1948-^1972 ( a s y m p t o t i c s t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r a n t h e s e s ) .  Parameter  M o d e l MC  M o d e l XC  0.094  (0.004)  0.181  (0.012)  0.106  (0.011)  0.206  (0.010)  0.236  (0.010)  0.430  (0.020)  0.031  (2.269)  -0.662  (0.194)  1.061  (4.080)  0.480  (0.263)  -3.507  (41.130)  -3.582  (36.819)  +  0.151  (0.174)  -0.538  (0.056)  +  -0.086  (0.446)  -0.106  (0.573)  +  0.009  (72.129)  0.031  (24.387)  a  l  a  2  a  3  fc  21  fc  31  t  32  Table  VIII.  Statistics  of  import and e x p o r t submodels. Imports 2 Rr:  Equation  Exports DW  R  2  DW  Food, e t c .  (1)  0.207  0.263  0.720  0.647  Crude m a t e r i a l s  (2)  0.140  0.093  0.598  0.248  Fabricated materials  (3)  -0.721  0.069  0.221  0.255  - 57 Table  IX.  Test s t a t i s t i c s ,  Canadian f o r e i g n trade  Test  1948-1972.  Restrictions  Critical (0.01)  Value  Imports Homogeneity  3  11.34  9.304  3  11.34  13.100  6  16.81  22.404  Homogeneity  3  11.34  16.704  Symmetry ( c o n d i t i d n a - l l o n f hbmogs) )  3  11.34  11.456  H o m o g e n e i t y & Symmetry  6  16.81  28.160  Symmetry(conditional  on homog.)  H o m o g e n e i t y & Symmetry  Exports  -  58  -  Table X. E l a s t i c i t i e s of s u b s t i t u t i o n and t r a n s f o r m a t i o n f o r 1948-1972, Canadian f o r e i g n t r a d e .  selected years  Elasticity  1948  1955  1961  1967  1972  a  -2.876  -2.822  32.575  -2.497  -2.719  0.216  0.145  -0.070  -0.104  -0.011  -0.915  -0.969  -1.089  -1.123  -1.037  0.906  0.905  0.899  0.897  0.903  -1.489  -1.306  -0.659  -0.594  -0.719  1.004  1.004  1.005  1.005  1.005  -0.114  -0.158  -0.285  -0.294  -0.273  -2.153  -2.151  -2.092  -2.081  -2.134  0.857  0.860  0.868  0.869  0.865  -0.460  -0,456  -0.461  M 11 M°12 M !3 a  M l4 a  M 22 a  M 23 0  M 24 a  M°33  a M 34 M 44 a  x n 9  X 12 9  X 13 9  X 14 9  X 22 G  X 23 9  X 24 9  X 33 9  X°34 X 44 9  -0.516  -0C4955  1.969  5.191  8.805  7.066  9.581  -5.662  -5.143  -5.120  -4.496  -5.288  1.348  1.540  1.780  1.716  1.766  -20.526  -9.896  -7.140  -7.261  -8.388  19.417  5.976  3.240  3.090  3.165  -3.032  -1.667  -1.486  -1.459  -1.340  38.665  9.122  4.917  5.284  5.325  0.742  0.824  1.140  1.154  1.013  -13.851  -4.394  -2.770  -3.214  -2.982  266.995  26.522  8.047  10.389  10.425  - 59 Table XI. Price e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r selected years 1948^1972, Canadian foreign  trade.  Elasticity  1948  1955  1961  1967  1972  M 11  -0.305  -0.291  -0.242  -0.230  -0.268  0.028  0.018  -0.007  -0.011  -0.001  -0.209  -0.222  -0.257  -0.266  -0.240  0.486  0.495  0.507  0.507  0.509  0.023  0.015  -0.00/7  -0.010  -0.001  -0.191  -0.158  -0.070  -0.062  -0.077  0.230  0.230  0.237  0.238  0.232  -0.061  -0.086  -0.161  -0.166  -0.154  -0.097  -0.100  -0.103  -0.103  -0.102  0.129  0.122  0.107  -0.492  -0.494  -0.494  -0.493  0.460  0.470  0.490  0.492  0.487  M 41  0.096  0.093  0.085  0.083  0.089  M 42  -0.015  -0.019  -0.030  -0.031  -0.029  0.196  0.197  0.205  0.206  0.200  -0.277  -0.271  -0.259  -0.258  -0.260  x n  0.652  1.168  1.595  X 12  -0.587  -0.850  -1.055  -0.942  -1.099  X 13  0.711  0.770  0.765  0.734  0.800  X 14  -0.776  -1.088  -1.305  -1.194  -1.377  X 21  -1.875  -1.157  -0.928  -0.892  -0.925  E  M 12 G  M 13 E  M 14 E  M 21 E  M 22 £  M 23 E  M 24 E  M 31 £  M 32 E  M 33 E  M 34 E  £  E  M 43 E  M 44 £  e  E  E  E  £  -0C492?  0.105  1.402  0.108  1.676  - 60 Table XI, continued.  2.012  0.988  0.668  0.647  0.658  -1.599  -0.833  -0.639  -0.624  -0.607  1.462  1.003  0.899  0.869  0.874  0.446  0.347  0.322  0.340  0.309  X 32  -0.314  0.276  -0.306  -0.306  -0.278  X 53  0.392  0.412  0.490  0.494  01459  -0.524  -0.483  -0.506  -0.528  -0.490  -6.796  -2.227  -1.293  -1.441  -1.467  4.006  1.508  1.014  1.107  1.107  -7.306  -2.196  -1.191  -1.374  -1.351  10.096  2.915  1.471  1.708  1.711  X 22 £  X 23 £  X 24 G  X 31 £  £  E  X 34 E  X 41 £  X 42 E  X 43 £  X 44 E  - 61 -  FOOTNOTES  1.  These v a r i a b l e s v a r y for  f r o m one a u t h o r  i n s t a n c e u s e s i n some t r a d e  conditions,  official  investments, world  another.  equations  international  exports,  to  etc.  Prachowny  (1969)  such v a r i a b l e s as  credit  reserves, direct  foreign  B a l l and Marwah (1962)  modified  t h e b a s i c m o d e l b y a d d i n g e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s s u c h a s t h e n o n wage t o wage i n c o m e r a t i o use of  or  the s t o c k s of  s e a s o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s  non f e r r o u s m e t a l s .  is also quite  frequent,  The  see  for  i n s t a n c e R h o m b e r g (1964). 2.  See f o r  instance Liu  3.  See A l l e n  4.  Kaliski's critique  5.  Hicks  6.  This treatment  (1938),  (1946)  pp.  (1954), P r a i s  p.  (1962),  o r Learner a n d S t e r n  (1970),  508.  will  be d i s c u s s e d a l g e b r a i c a l l y  below.  308-311.  of  imports  i s analogous to  the N a t i o n a l  Accounting  ''V  procedure. 7. - A l t h o u g h  this  assumption i s very'common i n the  "" A p p e l b a u m a n d K o h l i hold for N  8v,  Canada's exports  h a v e shown t h a t i n her  this  author.  See f o r  The e l a s t i c i t y  of  instance Diewert  transformation ! _ _  , -e "  i  _ h  9 p  y  h  i  h  p  h  _  n and s i m i l a r l y  for  the other  9  p  i y  or Lau  ! _ y  i  (1973)  set vary  can be w r i t t e n a s :  _ _ _  W y  does n o t  trade w i t h the United  The a s s u m p t i o n s o n t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y to  9.  (1975)  .literature,  h '  p  i "  f_h s  h  fhi "  n elasticities.  s  i  seem t o  States. from  (1974a).  author  10.  For a d i s c u s s i o n of Christensen  11.  (1973)  s e p a r a b i l i t y of  (and ( p ^ ' s ) ,  12.  see Berndt  i  ^ h,  c o u l d not be  Y ^  =  does not  (1974).  identified Y^i^  +  lead therefore  a n a  to  The i n p u t d a t a h a v e b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d s u c h t h a t w ' x = II. the p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y  Monotonicity  in prices  . .  , (sign y ^  "  any  ,  3n(p*;x*) > ^  the t r a n s l o g  =  i  This  set to a cone.  requires:  .  > 0,  Since i n  and  generality.  restricts 13.  functions,  One c a n o n l y e s t i m a t e t h e sums ( Y ^  imposing the e q u a l i t y y ^ loss of  -  and B l a c k o r b y , P r i m o n t a n d R u s s e l l  Indeed, the Y ^ ' s individually.  62  .  x = 1,  n  ...  I  i  case:  91nII(p*;x*) 81np  3n(p*;x*) 3p —•  =  i  ±  a n d s i n c e a p ^ y > f 0 ; IIh>. Qrpithe 1  £i n  monotonicity  c o n d i t i o n c a n be  written as: (sign y ) ±  and s i m i l a r l y 14.  With the  of  > 0  i  the f i x e d  is lnt  i s normalized to the c o e f f i c i e n t  the n o r m a l i z a t i o n .  however not  = 1,  ...  I  quantities. form,  the time v a r i a b l e i s  i n Appelbaum and H a r r i s .  zero for  In  t  in Jorgenson's  the f i r s t  t h e b a s e o b s e r v a t i o n and t h e  In  the second case t  i s n o r m a l i z e d t o one  The e s t i m a t e s o f a l l  independent of  the  coefficients  the n o r m a l i z a t i o n which i s  s o , s i n c e by the n o r m a l i z a t i o n of  case  estimates  of a l l v a r i a b l e s except t are independent  the base o b s e r v a t i o n .  This i s  ±  translog functional  treatment, but t  for  S  of for are  chosen.  t one c h o o s e s  arbitrarily  -  the  i n i t i a l value of  of  -  the time v a r i a b l e w h i c h c o u l d be r e g a r d e d as  the stock of knowledge. s i n c e whatever  63  In  the  first  the normalization  an a r i t h m e t i c  is,  progression, i.e.  15.  See J o r g e n s o n  16.  We c a n w r i t e t h e e x p r e s s i o n s f o r  case, it  this  only affects  the  slope of  follows:  6  = Y U + /\  K =  •t  =  (  =  the  /\  A A A  ' s and d ) . ' s u s i n g  5  the  last  matrix  J —.  A  it'  u  1  !  *2f  *it'  ( X  2t  •  y  y-j.,  ~ \j»  X  *J-l,t>'  - y,., ... y ^  2  2 "  \j'  a n d d) a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y  a n d Y» 8,'8'  line.  .8- A  y • = (y A  steps  'S'y +<£<)>XA  = (S  6  the  (1974).  as  where  irrelevant  a straight  XL-  notation  is  row a n d l a s t  X  - y .)'  J-1 "  ]  V  t h e Y» 8, 8' a n d 4> m a t r i c e s  column  as:  =/,  •t This i s  In  6'  I + J -  addition  all  1  y A  2 equations w i t h the  nonsingular.  i  The o n l y  solution  to  same number  equations are independent,  8 is  8'  6.  a system of  variables.  Y  Y  < -e-  It  t h e homogenous  system  i.e.  of  -  64  -  0 =  is  therefore  (y',  the t r i v i a l  X») = 0  QED  17.  See B e r n d t , H a l l ,  18.  For this full Fair  19.  H a l l a n d Hausman  particular  information  (1974).  e s t i m a t i o n , we u s e d t h e  (1972)  and Hanoch and R o t h s c h i l d  made h o l d i n g c a p i t a l o n l y f i x e d .  period t  but  The  appeared that  period t,  indeed y i e l d e d a l a r g e r v a r i a b l e p r o f i t  t h a n any  tV.a reverse was i n g e n e r a l true £o  See t a b l e  to o b t a i n convexity over the e n t i r e  v a l u e s to be g r e a t e r to  o r e q u a l t o some c o n s t a n t . a convexity  fluctuations  This  constraint  A l t h o u g h we o b t a i n e d t h e d e s i r e d  p r o c e d u r e may seem somewhat a r b i t r a r y . fit  in  decreased s u b s t a n t i a l l y ,  i n the estimated  range  of  by i m p o s i n g one o r s e v e r a l C h o l e s k i  the i m p o s i t i o n of  expansion point.  h a v i n g imposed c o n v e x i t y  III.  observed p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s  goodness o f  for  t,  We a l s o a t t e m p t e d  this  of  output  t h e r e v e r s e was i n g e n e r a l t r u e  same t e s t was a l s o made a f t e r  equivalent  the  the output mix  p e r i o d s sub'sequentcto  prices.  test  given  t,  su't-tDsruant t o  21.  It  (1972).  mix of periods before  The  (1972)  maximum l i k e l i h o o d programme b a s e d o n Chow a n d  c a p i t a l i n p u t and the p r i c e v e c t o r o f  20.  Chapman a n d F a i r  (1971).  See A f r i a t was  solution  at  the  result,  In a d d i t i o n  resulting  elasticities.  is  in  the  large  22.  R e c a l l t h a t one  65  -  had t o be n o r m a l i z e d anyway and a l s o t h a t  3^  has not been e s t i m a t e d . 23.  Several authors  found a ( t o t a l )  price elasticity  neighbourhood o f minus o n e ; see f o r Rhomberg ( 1 9 6 4 ) . partial  of  w e r e i n g e n e r a l much l e s s  2 4 . ' T h i s t y p e o f phenomenon i s  outward  twist  endowment o f  of  i n s t a n c e Kemp ( 1 9 6 2 )  an a v e r a g e o f  25.  and found a  see  for  literature.  c o u l d be p i c t u r e d by a n  the p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y is  frontier  i n c r e a s e d , such that at i n the other  as  the  unchanged factor  decreases.  This result  i s s u r p r i s i n g at f i r s t  but  may b e e x p l a i n e d b y  the  l a r g e number o f v a r i a b l e s a n d b y t h e e v e n l a r g e r number o f interactions  p r e s e n t i n t h e m o d e l a n d w h i c h make i t  p o s s i b l e t o have any a p r i o r i effect like point  the  Prewar estimates  w a l l known i n t h e g r o w t h  two g o o d m o d e l , t h i s  one f a c t o r  in  (1970).  commodity p r i c e s , the o u t p u t i n t e n s i v e actually  -1.9.  t h a n one i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e ;  'Learner a n d S t e r n  I n a two f a c t o r  imports  F o r the U n i t e d S t a t e s , B u r g e s s (1973)  price elasticity  instance!  of  of  imports,  appear to be r e l a t i v e l y  For instance,  the q u a n t i t y  the  taxes,  capital intensive,  a c t u a l l y where a i n c r e a s e i n the s t o c k o f  an a b s o l u t e d e c r e a s e i n  hardly  e x p e c t a t i o n s on the s i g n of  a t a x o n one o f many o u t p u t s .  possible  to  the  capital leads  of both v a r i a b l e  inputs;  can a l s o r e c a l l t h a t such an i n c r e a s e i n the c a p i t a l s t o c k decrease output of intensive)  exports  and t h e f a c t  may t h e n b e v e r y i n c i d e n t a l , a r e complements o r the  fact  i.e. that  t u r n out  the f a c t  to be t a x  that  imports  intensive  taxes and  taxes are r e l a t i v e l y  we  would  (remember a l s o t h a t e x p o r t s w e r e  that exports  to  imports  capital  - 66 intensive may  outweigh the fact that intermediate goods entering  the production of exports are not taxed.  - 67 REFERENCES  Afriat,  S . 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A . ,  1953-54,  Equilibrium",  " P r i c e s of  Review of  Factors  and Goods i n  Economic S t u d i e s ,  21,  S h e p h a r d , R . W . , 1 9 5 3 , C o s t and P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n s , Princeton University Slater,  Canada, Review of  General  1-20.  Princeton:  Press.  D. W . , 1 9 5 7 , C a n a d a ' s I m p o r t s , O t t a w a :  Statistics  A  Queen's  Foreign Trade, various  Printer.  issues.  and 72,  -  Statistics  Canada, Trade of Volume I I I :  Statistics  Canada,  72  -  C a n a d a , V o l u m e I:  Imports, various  System of  H.,  Income a n d  issues.  1 9 6 5 , " T h e I n f o r m a t i o n A p p r o a c h t o Demand A n a l y s i s " , Econometrica,  Uzawa, H . ,  Exports  issues.  N a t i o n a l Accounts - N a t i o n a l  Expenditure Accounts, various Theil,  Summary, V o l u m e I I :  1962,  33,  "Production Functions w i t h Constant E l a s t i c i t i e s  Substitution", Woodland, A. D., of  67-87.  1972,  Review of  "The C o n s t r u c t i o n  Inputs for  Quarterly Z e l d e r , R. E . , 1 9 5 8 ,  1927-1969", Department  212-235.  Elasticities  o f Demand f o r  the U n i t e d Kingdom and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Manchester School,  26,  of  'Demand C u r v e s ' S h o w ? " ,  Economics, 41,  "Estimates of  Components  Ottawa.  "What Do S t a t i s t i c a l  J o u r n a l of  291-299.  of P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y  Canadian I n d u s t r i e s ,  Manpower a n d I m m i g r a t i o n , Working, E. J . , 1927,  Economic S t u d i e s , 29,  of  33-47.  Exports  1921-1938",  of  APPENDIX  1.  Data D e s c r i p t i o n : Domestic V a r i a b l e s  A l l data are yearly data for i n Table A . I .  The l a b o u r  q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s of and D i e w e r t  reported  the d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s c o n t a i n e d i n Woodland  (1972)  (1975).  investment  and g o v e r n m e n t  Accounts.  Investment  construction  were aggregated w i t h  consumption,  purchases were d e r i v e d from the  National  construction,  a n d new m a c h i n e r y a n d e q u i p m e n t .  new n o n -  Government  as s a l e s from b u s i n e s s to government  were c o n s i d e r e d t o be a f i x e d  the beginning of  the p e r i o d  the data f o r  and  consumption.  Inventories technology at  quantity side,  i n c l u d e s new r e s i d e n t i a l  e x p e n d i t u r e s were d e f i n e d  end of  1972 and a r e  and c a p i t a l d a t a were c a l c u l a t e d a s D i v i s i a  On t h e v a r i a b l e  residential  1948 t o  (see Diewert  input to  t h e p e r i o d and a v a r i a b l e (1972),  Section 6:  the  output at  the  "Producer Behaviour  When D e p r e c i a t i o n R a t e s a r e V a r i a b l e " ) . The c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e  initial  s t o c k of  inventories  is calculated as: C  where p  fc  is  inventories output of  t  =  P  t  q  t-l  the current at  p r i c e of  the end of  inventories  is:  period  inventories t-1.  and q  f c  ^ the quantity  The revenue c o r r e s p o n d t o  of  the  -  •  R t  where r  74  -  r r r ;  q t  i s an exogenous i n t e r e s t  rate.  T h u s when a t  t h e p e r i o d f i r m s d e c i d e upon t h e volume of they discount  the current  The i n v e n t o r y  p r i c e of  t h e p r i c e of for  final  of  inventories,  inventories.  d a t a i n c l u d e b o t h f a r m and b u s i n e s s  s e r i e s and w e r e c o m p u t e d b y Denny ( 1 9 7 4 ) ; i n commercial channels.  their  the beginning  The i n t e r e s t  farm i n v e n t o r i e s  inventory  include  grain  r a t e we u s e d - t o ^ d i s c o u n t ; f a r m - i n v e n t o r i e s  f a r m mortgage r a t e c o n t a i n e d i n D a n i e l s o n (1973) ,  b u s i n e s s i n v e n t o r i e s we u s e d t h e G o v e r n m e n t o f  while  Canada 1 t o 3 y e a r  bond y i e l d . Intermediate subject  to t a x a t i o n  sector.  transactions  and t h e r e f o r e  The r e v e n u e of  the  enter  the model s i n c e they  imply a net  selling firm  cost to  are  the b u s i n e s s  is:  R = p q while  for  the p u r c h a s i n g f i r m the cost would  be:  C = p ( l .+ T). q where x i s The n e t  the tax rate  c o s t to  a p p l y i n g to  t r a n s a c t i o n s of  the business s e c t o r i s  C - R  =  intermediate  goods.  therefore:  p x q = T ,  T being the t a x r e c e i p t s from  i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s , and t h e  price  c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o c o s t T c a n t h e n be c a l c u l a t e d a s : T  p T = — . q The c o s t o f  intermediate  federal sales  t r a n s a c t i o n s was c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e t o t a l  t a x e s , e x c i s e t a x e s and e x c i s e d u t i e s ,  taken from the N a t i o n a l Accounts.  The q u a n t i t y  of  all  figures  of being  w h o l e s a l e t r a d e was  is  - 75 -  obtained by deflating the volume of wholesale trade by the wholesale price index f o r fabricated materials and end products as published by S t a t i s t i c s Canada.  The volume i t s e l f has been calculated net of  sales of drugs, food, coal, farm machinery, i n d u s t r i a l equipment and supplies, and newsprint.  -  2.  C o n s t r u c t i o n of  76  -  P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y  C a n a d i a n F o r e i g n T r a d e : 1948 t o  We d i s c u s s i n  this  s e r i e s of  These are  imports  Trade of  this  We according  components.  t h e s i s , but  contains,  duties  by groups a c c o r d i n g to  Canadian F o r e i g n Trade  on a commodity b a s i s ,  of  trade  collected, re-exports Until  and,  the value  1960 c o m m o d i t i e s were  t h e .component m a t e r i a l .  imports  altered  S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a now p u b l i s h e s i m p o r t a n d  so t h a t  d a t a by commodity  sections.  Canada,  classifications:  65-205)  by o r i g i n ,  In a d d i t i o n offered  until  classified  Ihol961 for  t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme w a s  of  whenever  a n d i n 1964 f o r  according to  alternative  a n n u a l d a t a on Canadian f l o w s  physical quantities.  (Statistics  as  out.  source of  It  and e x p o r t s ,  possible,  into four  as w e l l  Canada p u b l i s h e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada ( C a t a l o g u e N o .  65-201 to 65-203). imports  disaggregated  and e x p o r t s ,  subaggregate s e r i e s  and e x p o r t s  C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s of  The prime is  of  the subaggregate s e r i e s used i n  Alternative  of  i m p o r t d u t i e s and r e - e x p o r t s .  a g g r e g a t i o n c o u l d be c a r r i e d  2.1  1972  Canadian imports  f u r t h e r d e s c r i b e the c o n s t r u c t i o n to a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of  of  s e c t i o n the c o n s t r u c t i o n  p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s of the corresponding  Components  exports  substantially export  the Review of F o r e i g n Trade 1960 f o u r  by degree of m a n u f a c t u r e ,  additional by p u r p o s e and  the Standard I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade C l a s s i f i c a t i o n  (SITC).  -  77  -  T h e s e s e r i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e f r o m 1926 o n e x c e p t was i n t r o d u c e d  i n 1951.  S i n c e 1960 f i n a l l y ,  also published value s e r i e s according to a n d on t h e b a s i s o f  the r e v i s e d  The Bank o f C a n a d a , more p r i n c i p l e s imports  of  1928 a n d  in its  classification:  by e n d - u s e .  series for  (1961)  nineteen  Slater  commodity  one  these c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s .  the group  In a d d i t i o n ,  Canada has fabrication  SITC. review,  groups f o r  offers  by commodity  finally,  selected years  two  type  constructed  ( f i x e d weight  level prior  however,  Statistics  to  exist  for  and  import between  only  some  Canada p u b l i s h e s p r i c e  L a s p e y r e s and P a a s c h e  1960 and a t  more d i s a g g r e g a t e d  of F o r e i g n Trade u n t i l 1960.  the  and  respectively),  section level after  i n d i c e s were p u b l i s h e d  S i n c e 1973 t h e B a n k o f  i n the  Canada  i m p o r t and e x p o r t  classification.  1961 o n l y a n d f o r  1963.  The l a s t  constructed  price  for  some i m p o r t s ,  Unfortunately they a r e not  s e r i e s which i s a v a i l a b l e  fourteen  of  publishes  the d i r e c t  for  insurance,  mark-ups,  available for is  and i n d i r e c t  etc.  import d u t i e s ,  excise duties,  These s e r i e s are a v a i l a b l e  For  where  close  import  substitutes prices  wholesale  f r o m 1926 t o  (1962)  most  indices,  p r i c e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d by c o r r e c t i n g  freight,  the  1962 a n d  t h e o n e Kemp  p r i c e s a r e b a s e d on t h e w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s of  and t h e i n d i r e c t  of  t h e s e s e r i e s go b a c k  S l a t e r ' s import c a t e g o r i e s .  c a t e g o r i e s Kemp c a l c u l a t e d b o t h d i r e c t  1960.  Review  p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s w h i c h match w i t h the main c a t e g o r i e s  to  which  1955.  quantity indices at  last  Statistics  monthly  P r i c e and q u a n t i t y l s e r i e s , of  the  the s t a g e of  exports  (1957),  for  1955.  -  In to  group  it  Such a n o t i o n  seems d i f f i c l t  best  suited.  of  in  On t h e o t h e r  the a l t e r n a t i v e  h a s been p r i m o r d i a l  in  of  hand i t  according  w h i c h does not categories  natural  to  price  choose the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  p o s s i b l e to It  (by s e c t i o n s )  extend the will  extend  his  the  series  Kemp was  the consumer his  level,  import  imports. too  of  short  so i t  Statistics  w i l l be u s e d ;  this  seemed  Canada.  The  w i l l make  series i n future years without  it  difficulty.  t h u s b e n e c e s s a r y t o make t h e c o n v e r s i o n f r o m  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by g r o u p s y e a r 1948 t o  In a d d i t i o n ,  our n e e d s , and f i n a l l y ,  Canada s e r i e s i s  to  difficult,  exports,  indices at  of  series  consideration  i s a v a i l a b l e o n how  from s c r a t c h .  1960.  the  This w i l l  the s e c t i o n l e v e l f o r  two c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s  to  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by s e c t i o n s f o r  enable us to  the whole p e r i o d .  i n some m o r e  be  disregard  possibility  and r e g a r d i n g  cover the t o t a l i t y  new c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  at  information  in obtaining  The Bank of  This  T h i s a p p e a r e d t o be v e r y  correspond to  do n o t  and  classification.  as an a t t r a c t i v e  constructed,  w o u l d h a v e had t o be b u i l t  to  p r i c e and q u a n t i t y  the a c t u a l c h o i c e of  since only l i t t l e  interested  important not  classifications.  K e m p ' s s e r i e s f r o m 1955 o n .  s e r i e s were a c t u a l l y  is  like  aggregation  i s , however, v e r y vague  constructing  I t looked i n i t i a l l y  mainly  o u r p u r p o s e s , we w o u l d  t o d e c i d e a_ p r i o r i w h i c h c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w o u l d  difficulty  however,  for  s u c h a way s o a s t o m i n i m i z e  homogeneity  the r e l a t i v e to  -  choosing a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  i m p o r t and e x p o r t s  errors.  78  detail.  calculate Divisia  the the  indices  We w i l l now e x a m i n e  the  -  2.1.1.  79  -  C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by Groups  For both imports  and e x p o r t s ,  a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d on the b a s i s of Agricultural  F i b r e s and  t h e component  and v e g e t a b l e  A n i m a l s and a n i m a l  n i n e groups of  commodities  material:  products,  products,  textiles,  Wood p r o d u c t s  and  paper,  I r o n and s t e e l and  products,  N o n - f e r r o u s m e t a l s and  products,  N o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l s and C h e m i c a l s and  products,  fertilizers,  Miscellaneous. Each group hundreds of  is divided  different  t y p e s of  t y p e s mayschange f r o m y e a r unimportant. exports  and o f  commodities.  disaggregated price  these  to y e a r , but most changes a r e  for  p r i c e . i n d i c e s of  commodity  aggregate  imports  individual  commodities.  commodity  quantity  subgroups  basis or  Those d i s a g g r e g a t e d  export u n i t p r i c e s or  c l o s e Canadian or U . S . s u b s t i t u t e s .  e a c h g r o u p was t h e n c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g f o r  or  (1950).  These i n d i c e s were c a l c u l a t e d on t h e series defined for  several  relatively  L a s p e y r e s p r i c e i n d i c e s and P a a s c h e  i n d i c e s are i n general import or  index of  Some o f  t h e v a r i o u s g r o u p s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n DBS  i n d i c e s based on 1948.  more g e n e r a l l y  s u b g r o u p s a n d may c o n t a i n  The p r i c e and q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s of  They a r e f i x e d w e i g h t  of  into  price  sometimes The  weights  price the  1948  - 80 -  r e l a t i v e value of the p a r t i c u l a r commodities for which the p r i c e indices were defined, rather than the r e l a t i v e value of the whole subgroup.  In some instances,  small modifications  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n were made.(see DBS (1950J.  to the trade  The aggregate import or  export p r i c e index i n turn was calculated by weighting the group indices by the 1948 r e l a t i v e value of the corresponding group.  This  comes to say that within each group, the prices of a l l commodities for which an index i s not e x p l i c i t l y available are assumed to be the same and equal to the p r i c e index calculated for this group. This can be expressed a l g e b r a i c a l l y using the following notation: p^ , q^_.  price and quantity of commodity j of group i for which a price index i s available;  P  i k ' q*^  price and quantity of commodity k of group i for which a price index i s not available.  p\, the price index for group i such as i t i s calculated by S t a t i s t i c s Canada i s therefore: v „ v.^ p-t-  E p*. q?. * i j xj H  =  =  E p?. q?. x j ^xj  1  r  E p'.v.. 11 _ £ v.. xj  where o o v. . = p.. q.. xj *xj ^xj v.  = Ev. . + Ev* ij ik v = Ev. ;l v. . v. ij i w. . = -=—- — ii Ev. . v ij .1  t  ^ E v . .v~~^ ij Ll P  v./v x  E w. . P?. Ll Ll w. x  -  81  -  v. l w. = — i v t  U  On t h e o t h e r pt i  where  o IJ hand t h e " c o m p l e t e " Zv.. ij  =  U.. = J  • X  >  =  be:  Z U . . P ^ . + ZU* ij ij ik  P.*? ik  w. x  v../v J  1  U* = v * /v xk xk  t P.  P** ik  v. x  X  If  P * . + Zv* xj xk  index P^ would  .  t -t ^t we now a s s u m e t h a t P * = P . = P . , V k o n e c a n e a s i l y v e r i f y xk x x' 'vt = P. .  2.1.2.  J  J  that  X  C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by Sections-.  S i n c e 1960 i m p o r t e d according to  the f o l l o w i n g  Live Food,  and e x p o r t e d  sections:  animals, f e e d , b e v e r a g e s and t o b a c c o ,  Crude m a t e r i a l s , End p r o d u c t s , Special  inedible,  inedible,  .  transactions  Each s e c t i o n a g a i n i s d i v i d e d hundreds of  goods h a v e c b e e n c l a s s i f i e d  commodity  types.  i n s u b g r o u p s and  contains  I n many c a s e s t h e r e i s a o n e t o  c o r r e s p o n d e n c e between commodity t y p e s of  the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  one by  - 82 -  groups and sections.  This i s i n general not true at the subgroup  l e v e l and obviously not at the group or section l e v e l .  Regarding  price indices, two subperiods have to be distinquished since the 1948 weights continued to be i n use u n t i l 1967, when they were replaced by 1968 weights.  (i)  1960-1967 subperiod The commodity base as well as the weights for the aggregate  import or export price index remained unchanged from the period 1948 to 1960.  The weight of each section in^itheCaggregate index i s  therefore not equal.to i t s 1948 r e l a t i v e value.  S i m i l a r l y , for the  subaggregate indices calculated for each section, the weights attached to each price series do not r e f l e c t the r e l a t i v e importance of the corresponding commodity or commodity subgroup within the section. Instead those weights r e f l e c t the r e l a t i v e importance of the group to which they belonged under the old c l a s s i f i c a t i o n and the r e l a t i v e value of the other indexed commodities i n the same group.  The  fact that the calculated price indices at the section l e v e l are not independent of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by groups i s unfortunate and i t would have been preferable to recompute i n 1960 the (1948 or 1960) weights within each section.  (ii)  1967-1972 subperiod In 1968 a new price index using 1968 weights was defined.  The commodity base of t h i s new index i s somewhat d i f f e r e n t from the  -  base of  t h e 1948 i n d e x .  83  -  A c c o r d i n g to  the change i n t r a d e  some s e r i e s w e r e a d d e d and o t h e r s w e r e d i s c o n t i n u e d . were c a l c u l a t e d on a s i m i l a r  fashion asithe  composition  T h e 1968  1948 w e i g h t s  except  t h e y w e r e n o r m a l i z e d t o a d d up t o u n i t y w i t h i n e a c h s e c t i o n . t h e a g g r e g a t e and t h e constructed  2.2  back to  Price  this  discontinued  entire  period  commodity  type i t s e l f  may h a v e c h a n g e d a t  1960 t r a n s i t i o n .  although for  period  of  We t h e r e f o r e  the e n t i r e  current  period.  price  F o r some c o m m o d i t i e s ,  some t i m e ,  The f a c t  Weight  i n d i c e s w i l l not subgroups f o r  time.  commodity  especially during  obtained price  many c o m m o d i t i e s ,  importance  increased over  a subgroup or of a  series for  these s e r i e s  t h i s study f o r  the  actually cover  construction  i m p l y any c o m p u t a t i o n a l  whichnprice  the  three  t h a t some s e r i e s do n o t  and t h e s e r i e s t h e m s e l v e s a r e r e p o r t e d A.XIII.  obtain disaggregated  1948-1972.  i s not c r u c i a l for  The c o m m o d i t i e s o r  and  to  type decreased or  the d e f i n i t i o n  the f u l l  Series  o r new o n e s may h a v e a p p e a r e d a s t h e r e l a t i v e  In a d d i t i o n  cover  s e r i e s have been  was n o t p o s s i b l e s i n c e some s e r i e s may h a v e b e e n  a particular  subperiods,  Both  1967.  we w o u l d h a v e l i k e d  s e r i e s covering the however,  level)  that  Series  Ideally  of  (section  D i s a g g r e g a t e d P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y  2.2.1.  of  subaggregate  weights  series are  difficulty.  available  i n Tables A . V I , A . V I I ,  A.XII,  -  Unfortunately  it  84  -  was n o t  p o s s i b l e to obtain a l l . s e r i e s  have been u s e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada i n computing price  indices.  selves  to  Because of  the major  only retained  the  commodities.  (41 f o r  1972 t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d  Thus f o r  exports,  42 f o r  finally  our  2.2.2.  imports).  f r o m 1968 o n .  they  For the p e r i o d  For the p e r i o d  either  imports  or  Quantity  1960  I n most c a s e s i t  T h i s p r o c e d u r e may seem p r e f e r a b l e Canada w h i c h a s s i g n s to any p r i c e  exports,  1972 to  the disaggregated p r i c e  h a s b e e n assumed t h a t  to t h a t employed by s e r i e s the weight  of  commodity o n l y and hence a s s i g n s the a g g r e g a t e p r i c e of s e c t i o n to a l l  other  goods of  the  Canada f i g u r e s .  series  all  same p r i c e .  Statistics the the  corresponding particular  subgroup.  A l l v a l u e s e r i e s were c o n s t r u c t e d on the b a s i s of The code numbers of  were c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g  the  the commodities e n t e r i n g  s e r i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n T a b l e s A . V I I to A . X I .  series.  to  1967 t o  c o m m o d i t i e s w i t h i n a s u b g r o u p w e r e homogenous a n d h a d t h e  price  to  Series  were t h e n ' c o m p i l e d .  finally  were  commodities.  Value s e r i e s corresponding to  of  the  From 1960  s e r i e s were not p u b l i s h e d , but  series correspond, for  t h e 40 m a j o r  published i n  the s e r i e s which already existed p r i o r  1960 o r w h i c h c o n t i n u e d  our-  t h e p e r i o d 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 we  made a v a i l a b l e t o u s b y S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . 1967 we o n l y r e t a i n e d  aggregate  r e s o u r c e s we h a d t o r e s t r i c t  s e r i e s w h i c h were c o n s i s t e n t l y  Review of F o r e i g n Trade to  limited  their  which  The q u a n t i t y  the v a l u e s e r i e s by the  Trade each  series corresponding  - 85 -  2.2.3.  Computation of Price Series for Residual Commodities  As mentioned e a r l i e r , S t a t i s t i c s Canada has used, i n computing price series at the group or section l e v e l , some additional disaggregated series which,. however, are not available f o r this study. In order to pick up some of the e f f e c t of thos missing prices, price series for residual commodities were computed f o r each section or group. We now use the following p„,  q„  notation:  price and quantity of good j of group (section) i for which we have a price series,  , q_^ price and quantity of good h of group (section) i for which we do not have a price s e r i e s , but for which a price series exists and has been used by S t a t i s t i c s Canada to compute the aggregate indices, P  ik* ^ik P i r  c e  a n  ^ quantity of good k of group (section) i for which  there i s no price s e r i e s . The aggregate price index has been calculated as t ~ *t _ v . P. . + Zv.. PT, xj xj ih ih Ev.. + Ev. xj ih :  p-t 1  =  =  u  t " t O/t Z v. . P. . + V . . P . . + Zv* P. i i ij ih ih lk l Ev.. + Ev., + Ev* xj xh xk  ~t However, we do not know P.. , Vk, but we can define an xk aggregate price index for residual commodities as: pt 1  =  £ v. . P^ + E v* & i.i x xk x E v., + E v * xh xk  -  and P ^ c a n t h e n be computed £t  E v. .  13  _  were used to  13  + E v* ) P* ik' 1  lh +  lh  v* ik  1968 a s t h e c a s e may b e )  compute t h e s e r e s i d u a l p r i c e  which are reported the  P*. + (E v . , 13  (1948 o r  -  from:  E v. . + E v  1  The w e i g h t s  86  of  Statistics  series.  These w e i g h t s ,  i n Tables A . V I I I to A . X I , a r e not  necessarily  same a s t h o s e we c o u l d h a v e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m o u r v a l u e  since for  2.3.  some s e r i e s o u r c o m m o d i t y b a s e may be somewhat  C o n s t r u c t i o n of D i v i s i a P r i c e I n d i c e s at 1948 t o  Canada  series larger.  the Section L e v e l ,  1972  The d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s were u s e d construct 1948 t o into  price  1972.  four  indices at For this  the s e c t i o n l e v e l for  purpose imports  the e n t i r e  and e x p o r t s w i l l be  s e c t i o n s b a s e d on t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f  period divided  Statistics  Canada:  (1,2)  L i v e a n i m a l s , f o o d , f e e d , b e v e r a g e s and t o b a c c o ,  (3)  Crude m a t e r i a l s ,  (4)  Fabricated materials,  (5)  End p r o d u c t s ,  inedible, inedible,  inedible.  L i v e a n i m a l s have t h u s been added t o l i v e animals i s a r e l a t i v e l y  small category.  t r a n s a c t i o n s w e r e d i s r e g a r d e d s i n c e no p r i c e t o any commodity  in this  category  the food s e c t i o n In a d d i t i o n  series  sector.  since  special  corresponding  i s a v a i l a b l e and s i n c e m o s t  t h e s e c o m m o d i t i e s would be e x c l u d e d f r o m a model of private  to  of  the Canadian  -  2.3.1.  -  R e c o n c i l i a t i o n Between C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by G r o u p s and b y S e c t i o n s , 1948 t o  The n e x t to  the d i f f e r e n t  to  convert  I960.  s t e p was t o a l l o c a t e  sections for  Canada.  the i n d i v i d u a l  commodity  In  be done a t  t h e commodity l e v e l were  i n which case constant  the b a s i s of  2.3.2  at  by  published for complicated  commodities to  (1960)  the section l e v e l d i f f e r Canada.  these s e r i e s i n order  each commodity  i m p o r t and e x p o r t  from our  the hundreds of  from t h o s e c o m p i l e d by S t a t i s t i c s  into  order  used.  necessary to reconstruct  fall  types  some i n s t a n c e s t h e a l l o c a t i o n b e t w e e n s e c t i o n s h a d  T h e v a l u e s e r i e s we o b t a i n e d  for  straightforward  s u b g r o u p s , b u t was c o n s i d e r a b l y m o r e  involved.  coefficients  the c o n v e r s i o n key  T h i s t a s k was r e l a t i v e l y  the r e s i d u a l c a t e g o r i e s because of  weights  commodity  t h e s u b p e r i o d 1948 t o 1 9 6 0 i n  T h i s was d o n e on t h e b a s i s o f  i n Trade of  slightly  the v a r i o u s  t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by groups i n t o t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  sections.  for  87  subgroup.  It  was,  to o b t a i n  Note a l s o that the  the  only  however, current  aggregate  v a l u e s a r e somewhat l e s s t h a n t h o s e p u b l i s h e d  on  t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n b y g r o u p s s i n c e some c o m m o d i t i e s  t h e s p e c i a l t r a n s a c t i o n c a t e g o r y and a r e t h u s  excluded  series.  Computation of D i v i s i a P r i c e Indices at  the  Section Level  and t h e A g g r e g a t e L e v e l  U s i n g o u r d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y s e r i e s , we computed D i v i s i a i n d i c e s f o r  each s e c t i o n and f o r  aggregate  next  imports  - 88 -  or  exports.  (see T h e i l  A d i s c r e t e approximation to the D i v i s i a p r i c e index (1965)  and D i e w e r t  (1974b)):  1  Zn D  1 0 1  ,  = E  For period t, l i k e any o t h e r D  t,o  current =  D  o o 1 i i i ( — — r - 'H — — ) Jin — \ 1 1 „ o o o Ep.q. Ep.q. p. p  U  i  is  1  q  i  p  q  p  .  t h e i n d e x c a n be c a l c u l a t e d by r e c u r r e n c e weight  t,t-1 ^  D  index:  t-l,o  _  I  D  i,i-1 ^  i-1 This p r i c e index i s p a r t i c u l a r l y  s u i t e d when u s e d  estimate a translog functional  form s i n c e i t  the D i v i s i a index i s exact f o r  a homogenous t r a n s l o g  aggregator that  function  some o f  period.  (see Diewert  (1974b)).  h a s b e e n shown t h a t  on a d i f f e r e n t  (price)  We m u s t n o t e ,  o u r d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s do n o t  T h i s would imply  to  that the aggregator  cover the function  however,  entire is  defined  s p a c e i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d and w e a k s e p a r a b i l i t y  can  o n l y be c o n c e i v e d w i t h i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d . The D i v i s i a i n d i c e s f o r  aggregate imports  or  were computed from t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s d i r e c t l y , the subaggregate (section l e v e l ) for  indices.  exports rather  A l l price series,  1 9 6 1 , and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a l u e s e r i e s a r e r e p o r t e d  A."IV and A . V .  The q u a n t i t y  than  normalized  i n Tables  i n d i c e s c a n be o b t a i n e d by d i v i d i n g  v a l u e s e r i e s by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p r i c e s e r i e s . however, would not be e x a c t D i v i s i a i n d i c e s .  from  Those q u a n t i t y  the indices,  - 89 -  2.3.3  Corrections for Import Duties and Re-exports If those data are to be used i n the framework of production  theory, the prices we are interested i n are the prices to the producer It would have therefore been desirable to correct the existing (f.o.b. prices f o r transportation, insurance and duties.  Unfortunately, i t  was not possible to f i n d data on transportation or insurance costs, p a r t i c u l a r l y since we would have had to d i s t i n g u i s h between Canadian and f o r e i g n agents. S i m i l a r l y , to be consistent one has to consider either imports net of re-exports, or add re-exports to the export figures. In the absence of any data on imports for home use only, we were l e f t with the second alternative.  This treatment of re-exports i s  p a r t i c u l a r l y j u s t i f i e d i f there i s value added to these commodities while i n Canada (e.g., storage or manufacturing  costs).  We  thus  compiled import duty and re-export value series for the same commodity groups for which we e a r l i e r calculated quantity series (see Tables A.XIV and A.XV). Import duties affect the price of imports faced by the producers since f o r a constant quantity, the cost of the imported commodity i s increased by the amount of duties paid.  If p^, q^, and  HK are respectively the price, the quantity and the cost net of duties of imported commodity i , m. = p. q. and  m. + d. = p* q. -1  -1  T  1  the following relationships hold:  - 90 -  where p$ i s the p r i c e of import i c o r r e c t e d  * p* = l After  m. + d. i  f o r import d u t i e s ,  and  1  correcting  m. l  r  p. . i  the d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e s e r i e s of imports, we  computed  a g a i n the D i v i s i a p r i c e i n d i c e s a t the s e c t i o n l e v e l and f o r t o t a l imports.  These c o r r e c t e d  p r i c e s e r i e s and  the c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a l u e  s e r i e s a r e shown i n T a b l e A . I I . Re-exports on the other hand a f f e c t the d i s a g g r e g a t e d q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s o n l y , i f we  assume t h a t  t h e i r p r i c e i s the same  as the p r i c e of the c o r r e s p o n d i n g domestic e x p o r t s . x  i  a r e now  and hence  I f p^, q^,  the p r i c e , q u a n t i t y and v a l u e of export i , we x. = p. x. + r . x I x. q* =  and  have:  q. = p. q* , i i + r. r  P  n  i  The p r i c e of each export subgroup i s thus u n a f f e c t e d . The  c o r r e s p o n d i n g weights, however, w i l l be a l t e r e d and  a f f e c t the aggregate p r i c e s e r i e s . exports are reported i n Table  A.III.  The  series corrected  this  will  for re-  TABLE A . I  91  -  D o m e s t i c V a r i a b l e s : V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s , ( V a l u e and Q u a n t i t y S e r i e s f o r  Year  Ind.  Taxes  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961c 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  849000 802000 846000 1122000 1205000 1251000 11990002 1270000 1398000 1437000 1420000 1587000 1649000 1660000 1748000 1855000 2202000 2560000 2788000 2923000 2997000 3182000 3214000 3533000 3970000  1948 11949 11950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  0.796 0.734 017,81 1'.051 1.029 1C060 0.991 0.949 0.955 ' £1.032 0.976 1.024 0.988 1.000 0.'978 0.977 1.051 1.111 1.128 1.122 1.082 1.101 1.091 1.147 1.225  Investment  Consumption  6379855 6927191 7659285 9386775 9628392 10357196 10181440 10711793 12717352 13689855 13550405 12764817 13589611 13833590 14160194 15097368 17375766 19510448 22255882 23101816 23452309 26343233 27626739 29409101 32190892  11134000 12322000 13610000 15714000 17693000 18675000 19318000 20862000 22876000 24301000 25717000 27313000 28454000 29111000 30877000 32720000 35040000 38180000 41932000 45381000 49563000 53596000 57456000 62530000 69436000  0.743 0.780 0.838 0.966 0.931 0.910 0.890 0.906 0.927 0.941 0.973 0.982 0.990 1.000 1.013 1.034 1.053 1.082 1.131 1.163 1.164 1.218 1.254 1.3.05 1.387:  0.697• 0.730 0.758 0.858 0.907 0.903 0.903 0.902 0.919 0.945 0.969 0.979 0.988 1.000 1.019 1.030 1.043 1.072 1.117 1.156 1.206 1.244 1.301 1.343 1.386  L a b o u r and  1948-1972 Capital)  Labour  Capital  9461236 10124303 10821065 12170210 13271248 14191821 14499874 15139396 16901824 18299841 18736274 19987222 20960936 21951281 23440524 24984175 27170571 29972478 33498927 37306179 40549971 45411099 49198473 53829597 59628690  8229690 "8688129 9675240 11280952 12253294 12003278 11776078 13254673 13981761 14553027 15612832 16044746 16233069 16518078 18232864 19335039 20626137 22079498 24289644 24941203 26590807 28813116 30297441 32956260 36490924  0.838 0.852 0.869 0.882 0.889 0.900 0.891 0.901 0.939 0.964 0.958 0.981 0.992 1.000 1.042 1.073 1.118 1.169 1.195 1.237 1.258 1.308 1.356 1.379 1.4211  0.522 0.537 0.558 0.578 0.630 0.663 0.713 0.750 0.771 0.848 0.915 0.924 0.962 1.000 1.053 1.080 1.126 1.207 1.291 1.386 1.465 1.523 1.610 1.678 1.714  -  TABLE A . I I  92  -  V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r A g g r e g a t e By  Section (Series  Corrected for  I m p o r t s and Import  Duties) Year 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  Section  Total 2804038. 2908845. 3349235. 4286794. 4186314. 4585753. 4259806. 4932109. 5991302. 5899357. 5461366. 5953018. 5903629. 6199949. 6772798. 7020175. 7915432. 9057694. 10296754. 11619102?' 12892804. 14847497. 14681334. 16449797. 19698403.  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 19651%, 0 5 ; 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  0.826 0.842 0.904 1.024 0.914 0.905 0.902 0.922 0.948 0.969 0.976 0.964 0.976 1.000 1.050 1.060 1.066 1.057 1.059 1.064 1.085 1.109 1.129 1.145 1.178  '  -342779. 367293. 432439. 483406. 470867. 474072. 522875. 535280. 598853. 633401. 648945. 657686. 661102. 705834. 747378. 857547. 873514. 859034. 900974. 988398. 1014166. 1178955. 1229508. 1278040. 1532277. 1.030 1.047 1.111 1.257 1.101 1.039 1.096 1.064 1.060 1.102 1.07.6 0.985 0.978 1.000 1.052 1.147 1.143 1.075 1.071 1.025 1.053 1.099 1.141 1.159 1.228  1, 2  Section 3 664950. 601992. 733879. 893681. 698642. 651745. 587993. 692126. 817733. 823125. 681959. 720835. 739552. 769122. 833228. 903030. 968536. 1015155. 1033192. 1072494. 1136393. 1090503. 1175265. 1326881. 1546659. 0.991 0.998 1.074 1.284 1.080 1.066 11057 1.062 1.056 1.090 1.057 1.013 0.990 1.000 1.040 1.036 1.031 1.045 1.059 1.052 1.063 1.085 1.099 1.116 1.205  Section 4 821570. 836274. 915458. 1221883. 1135481. 1236801. 1126383. 1314783. 1677609. 1657005. 1462789. 1546089. 1494444. 1539461. 1664655. 1737935. 1998383. 2321870. 244,9044. 2541188. 2665161., 3170358. 3137282. 3422447. 3911214.  Section 5 '974739. 1103286. 1267459. 1687825. 1881324. 2223135. 2022555. 2389920. 2897107. 2785826. 2667673. 3028408. 3008531. 3185532. 3527537. 3521663. 4074999. 4861635. 5913544. 7017022. 8077084. 9407681. 9139279. 10422429. 12708253.:  0.837 0.836 0.891 1.027 0.900 0.903 0.878 0.900 0.920 0.939 0.946 0.940 0.969 1.000 1.046 1.043 1.067 1.067 1.052 1.058 1.079 1.078 1.099 1.101  0.736 0.769 0.831 0.903 0.843 0.839 0.839 0.870 0.912 0.929 0.951 0.959 0.976 1.000 1.054 1.055 1.055 1.049 1.057 1.071 1.093 1.123 1.140 1.159  1.124  1.185  TABLE A . I l l  Total  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964* 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  3076107. 2995031. 3130340. 3926870. 4318448. 4137165. 3911297. 4308977. 4806971. 4856935. . 4878984.. 5124418. 5367235. 5858353. 6300764. 6919939. 8236376. 8704283. 10264085. I135697/8S-135802611 14892544. 16785422. 17788191. 20091637.  / < :  0.800 0.826 0.867 0.977 0.971 0.945 0.923 . 0.949 0.981 0.972 0.964 0.980 0.991 1.000 1.034 1.039 1.057 1.066 1.100 1.117 1.149 1.176 1.202 1.204 1.244  -  V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r and by S e c t i o n  Year  93  Section  1,2  929368. 981635. 901862. 1120093. 1329162. 1262656. 984778. 905395. 1099985. 968029. 1136289. 1078168. 990957. 1269976. 1246191. 1469732. 1848905. 1719563. 1976507. 1656852. 1624958. 1485876.. 1900959. 2131414. 2381128. 0.928 0.975 0.992 1.037 1.008 0.988 0.938 0.937 0.934 0.918 0.927 0.953 0.964 1.000 1.082 1.072 1.094 1.075 1.119 1.159 1.132 1.121 1.084 1.109 1.192  Aggregate  (Series Corrected  for  Exports  Re-exports)  Section 3  Section 4  319920. ..322030. 346178. 449916. 486100. ;4'93508. 507502. 706972. 900262. 1053460. 979504. 1099577. 113.1759; 1204405. 1370521. 1435750. 1622478. 1772000. 1956833. 2115962. 2475152. 2473726. 3093307. 3271756. 3569552.  1406335. 1321055. 1612269. 1996773. 2050503. 1962760. 2058789. 2377623. 2449096. 2416129. 2258565.;" 2476972. 2750666. 2778403. 2915721. 3120547. 3521383. 3752418. 4029941. 4251423. 4915482. 5240488. 5945885. 5916328. 6697291.  0.704 0.731 0.787 0.920 0.915 0.887 0.868 0.906 0.956 0.953 0.934 0.946 0.983 1.000 1.041 1.066 1.075 1.102 1.153 1.175 1.203 1.227 1.280 1.253 1.273  0.798 0.803 0.856 0.999 1.004 0.968 0.957. 0.993 1.035 1.016 0.999 1.011 1.009 1.000 1.014 1.016 1.037 1.052 1.081 1.096 1.163 1.209 1.240 1.225 1.280  Section 5 420484. 370311. •270031. 360088. 452683. 418241. 360228. J3.18987. 357628. 419317. 504626. 469701. 493853. 605569. 768331. 893910. 1243610. 1460302. 2300804. 3332741. 4564669. 5692454. 5845271. 6468693. 7443666. 0.650 0.696 0.731 0.816 0.822 0.818 0.813 0.830 0.875 0.909 0.928 0.948 0.970 1.000 1.020 1.026 1.036 1.046 1.063 1.061 1.080 1.100 1.127 1.150 1.171  TABLE A . I V  94  V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r A g g r e g a t e and b y  Year 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  -  Section  Total 2587822. 2687671. 3100827. .3954690. .53845349. 4190350. 3889915. 44505323. 5473001. 5399069. 4971984. 5429420. 5389102. 5667054. 6130274. 6419852. 7269572. 8366668. 9544408. 10805934. 12099071. 13938292. 13790274. 15450951. 18466946. 0.819 0.837 0.900 1.018 0.909 0.899 0.897 0.916 0.942 0.966 0.970 0.959 0.972 1.000 1.040 1.059 1.068 1.067 1.073 1.080 1.108 1.134 1.155 1.169 1.202  1,2  305577. 326251. 394989. 437579. 418301. 416683. .'•468710. 475854, 536016. 568188. 574252.% 582963. 588515. 628804. 664421. 780150. 794720. 769692. 804651. 883491. 918187. 1062662. 1115552. 1156851. 1400491. :  ;  ;  ,  1.009 1.030 1.124 12.266 1.091 1.016 1.093 1.054 1.060 1.106 1.069 0.975 0.973 1.000 1.048 1.176 1.171 1.084 1.080 1.036 1.075 1.116 1.169 1.187 1.272  Imports  Section Section 3 650890. 591735. 723682. '882200. 688970. 642171. 579935.. r,683690. 807625. 813889. 674692. 713762. <:>732542. -762797. 826464. 896296. '960662. 1006274. 1023212. 1062268. 1126744. 1085460. 1171572. 1321725. 1539784. 0.987 0.995 1.076 1.288 1.082 1.067 1.057 1.063 1.056 1.091 1.057 1.014 0.990 1.000 1.040 1.037 1.032 1.046 1.059 1.052 1.064 1.089 1.105 1.120 1.210  Section 4 753266. 765942. 839927. 1120985. 1043170. 1122805. 1023909. 1197282. 1540327. 1515484. 1322748 1400003. 1348466. 1388181. 1488781. 1571009. 1812988. 2114423. 2233137. 2310208. 2434586. 2905331. 2885422. 3140164. 3578991. 0.844 0.843 0.898 1.033 0.910 0.905 0.880 0.904 0.932 0.948 0.948 0.941 0.968 1.000 1.037 1.044 1.071 1.075 1.063 1.066 1.092 1.094 1.118 1.119 1.141  Section 5 878089. 1003743. 1142229. 1513926. 1694908. 2008691. 1817361. 2148497. 2589033. 2501508. 2400292. 2732692. 2719579. 2887272. 3150608. 3172397. 3701202. 4476279. 5483408. 6549967. 7619554. 8884839. 8617728. 9832211. 11947680. 0.722 0.759 0.814 0.880 0.826 0.828 0.826 0.856 0.893 0.914 0.939 0.950 0.969 1.000 1.039 1.045 1.054 1.062 1.076 1.095 1.125 1.157 1.175 1.191 1.214  - 95 Value and Price Series For Aggregate Exports  TABLE A.V  and by Section Year  Total  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  3042581. 2966539. 3092377. 3878880. 4264678. 4083276. 8347035. 4241183. 4737122. 4766183. 4778239. 5010222. 5241615. 5743082. 6163673 6773815. 8068047. 8501566. 10045312. 11098204. 13232262. 14468431. 16369868. 17366053. 19618867.  1948 0.801 0.828 1949 1950 0.868 1951 0.977 1952 0.973 1953 0.946 1954 0.924 1955 0.949 1956 0.982 1957 0.972 1958 0.964 1959 0.979 1960 0.991 1961 1.000 1962 1.034 1963 1.039 1964 1.057 1965 1.066 1966;'. JOQ 1.100 1967 1.117 1968 1.149 1969 1.176 1970 1.200 1971 1.202 1972 1.241  Section 1,2  Section 3  Section 4  927404. 980190. 899873. 1117915 1324634. 1260162. 981925. 900822. 1096419. 964766. 1133127. . 1074622. S987016. 1264704. 1240189. 1461828. 1840400. 1708951. 1966295. 1644608. 1613122. 1464211. 1868453. 2112352. '22355083.  . 314346. 316180. 338716. 440337. 476953. 484749. 498399. 697442. 890948. 1041168. 965707. 1081786. 1112653. 1195442. 1361595. 1425951. 1616145. 1763701. 1947625. 2108298. 2467578. 2463323. 3084013. 3263710. 3559586.  1400578. 1315911. 1605960. 1986866. 2042468. 1954534. 2050130. 2368036. 2439434. 2403659. 2244330. 2463222. 2733618. 2777345. 3907126. 3106898. 3502496. 3728769. 4012068. 4229365. 4855098. 5162695. 5866452. 5796816. 6568031  400253. 354258. 247828. '333762. 420623. 383831. 316581. 274883. .310321. 356590. 435075. 390592. 408328. 505591. 654763. 779138. 1109006. 1300145. 2119324. 3115933. 4296464. 5378202. 5550950. 6183175. 7136167.  0.928 0.976 0.992 1.037 1.008 0.988 0.938 0.937 0.934 0.918 0.927 0.952 0.964 1.000 1.083 1.073 1.095 1.07,61.120 1.161 1.133 1.123 1.084 1.109 1.190  0.703 0.731 0.786 0.919 0.916 0.887 0.867 0.906 0.957 0.953 0.935 0.946 0.983 1.000 1.041 1.066 1.075 1.102 1.153 1.175 1.203 1.227 1.280 1.253 1.273  0.798 0.803 0.856 0.999 1.004 0.968 0.957 0.993 1.035 1.016 0.999 1.011 1.009 1.000 1.014 1.016 1.037 1.052 1.081 1.096 1.163 1.210 1.239 1.224 1.279  0.649 0.695 0.730 0.814 0.821 0.817 0.812 0.828 0.873 0.907 0.926 0.948 0.970 1.000 1.019 1.025 1.035 1.044 1.061 1.058 1.078 1.097 1.123 1.145 1.167  Section 5  - 96 TABLE A.VI Series  Summary Table of Disaggregated Import - Subperiod 1 2 3  Series  1  Bananas  X  Tea  X  Citrus F r u i t s  X  Whisky  X  F r u i t s , Dried  X  Nuts  X  Vegetables*  X  X  X  Meat  Sugar  X  X  X  Ind• Chemicals  Cocoa Beans  X  X  X  Coffee  X  X  X  Soyabeans  X  X  X  Furs-,, Undressed  X  X  Cotton, Raw  X  X  Wool,.JRaw*  X  Wool, Tops  X  Sisal  X  Synthetic 3  X  Paperboard 3  X  Series  Subperiod 2 3  Section 1,2 X  X  Fresh F r u i t s  X  X  Indian Corn  X  X X  X  12 Live Animals  X  X  X  Section 3 Iron Ore*  X  X  Coal, Anthr.  X  X  X  Coal, Bitum*  X  X  X  X  X  Petroleum  X  X  X  X  X  Rubber 3*  X  X  X  Hides  X  X  Bauxite, Alum.  X  X  X  Copper Ores  X  action 4 Vegetable O i l s *  X  X  Cotton, Fabrics*  X  X  X  Fertilizers B  Jute*  X  X  X  Paint 4  Worsteds  X  X  X  Ind. Chemicals  Fertilizers A  X X X  4*  X  X  X  -  97  TABLE A . V I  -  (Continued)  Section 4 Synth. Fabrics Paperboard  x  4*  Rolling M i l l Tin,  4  Rubber  4*  Coated  Fabrics  x  x  X  Prodf.x  X  X  Veneers  x  x  X  X  Heavy  x  Blocks  Fuels  Inorg.  Bricks  x  Glass*  x  X  Gasoline*  x  X  Org.  x  Chemicals  x  Chemicals  x  X  Section 5 Newspapers Paperboard Farm  5  Machinery  X  Chinaware  X  X  Paint  X  X  X  Machinery*  X  X  Automobiles*  X  X  X  Rubber  Electric. atus*  X  X  X  Drilling  Appar-  The x i n d i c a t e s corresponding  The *  indicates  consistent  that the  X  5  Ind.  Chemicals 5  Cons. Goods,  particular  series  Misc.  5  X  x" X  Machinery  is  available  for  the  subperiod.  that  due to  t h e p r e - and p o s t - 1 9 6 0  changes i n  classification.  s u b s e r i e s are not  entirely  - 98 -  TABLE A.VII  Summary Table of Disaggregated Export Series  Series  Subperiod  Series  Subperiod  1  2  3  1 2  3  Wheat  X  X  X  C a t t l e , Dairy  X  Barley  X  X  X  C a t t l e , Slaughter  X  Whisky  X  X  X  Milk  X  X  Wheat Flower  X  X  X  Eggs i n the S h e l l  X  X  Oats  X  X  Tobacco  X  X  Section 1,2  Beef & V e a l  X  X  Cheese F i s h & F i s h Prod.  X  X  12*  X  L i v e Animals  X  X  X  X  X  X  Section 3 F i s h & F i s h Prod. 3  X  Nickel 3  X  Leather 3  X  Zinc 3  X  Furs, Undressed  X  X  X  Silver 3  X  Hides  X  X  X  Platinum*  X  Pulpwood  X  X  X  Asbestos A  X  Iron Ore  X  X  X  Asbestos B  Copper 3  X  Coal  Lead 3  X  Petroleum  X  Aluminum 3  X  Natural Gas  X  X  X  X X  X  X  •  Section 4 F i s h & F i s h Prod. 4  X  Lead 4  X  Leather A  X  Aluminum 4*  X  X  X  Nickel 4  X  X  X  X  X  X  Leather B  XX  Newsprint  X  XX  X  Zinc 4  X  Wood Pulp  X  XX  X  Silver 4  X  Planks  X  SX  X  Abrasives*  X  X  Shingles  X  six  Fertilizers  X  X  - 99 TABLE A . V I I ( C o n t i n u e d )  Section 4 Plywood  X  X  Rolling M i l l  Prod.  x  x  Pig  Iron  X  X  X  Electricity  x  x  Copper 4  X  X  X  Chemicals  Farm M a c h i n e r y *  X  X  X  Cons. Goods, M i s c .  x  x  Machinery*  X  X  X  Rubber  x  x  Automobiles*  X  X  X  x  Section 5  An x i n d i c a t e s  that the  particular  series is available  for  the  corresponding  subperiod.  The * i n d i c a t e s consistent  that the pre-iiand  due t o  changes i n  post-1960  classification.  subseries are not  entirely  -  TABLE A . V I I I  100 -  Disaggregated  Import S e r i e s ,  1948-1960  Code Numbers a n d 1 9 4 8 W e i g h t s  Weight  Series Bananas Citrus  (%)  Code Number  0.93 Fruits  0.91  6,  Dried  0.51  31,  Nuts  1.17  81-108  Vegetables  0.32  111-128,  Soyabeans  0..50  162  Sugar  3.36  2 6 2 , 263  Cocoa  0.80  271  Coffee  1.25  2 8 3 , 284  Tea  0.86  319/321-336  Whisky  0.44  1515  0.51  1601-1628,  1.18  2155-2169  C o t t o n , Raw  3.39  3001  Cotton,  1.33  3026-3050  Jute  1.04  3134  W o o l , Raw  1.35  3261-3264  Wool,  1.43  3266,3268,  Worsteds  1.91  3288  Sisal  0.68  3413  Synth. Fabrics 3  1.08  3365-3367  Fruits,  Vegetable Furs,  Oils  Undressed  Fabrics  Tops  Synth. Fabrics 4  9 , 1 0 , 13 3 2 , 34, 36-42  1 3 5 , 136  231-236  3269  3371-3373  Newspapers  1.13  4266,44267,  Paperboard 3  1.20  4209  4310  Paperboard 4  4159-4260*/Paper 3 & 5  Paperboard 5  4179, 4188, 4202, 4204, 4211, 4215, 4216, 4220, 4229-4231, 4235, 4238, 4241-4246, 4253-4260  -  101 -  TABLE A . V I I I I r o n Ore  (Continued) 0.59  5001  1.41  5070-5177  Farm M a c h i n e r y  5.33  5290-5363  Machinery  8.26  5441-5599  Automobiles  5.80  5242, 5661,  Tin,  0.51  6101  E l e c t r i c App.  3.18  6139-6325  Bricks  0.46  7021-7034  Chinaware  0.58  7046  Coal Anthr.  2.65  7061-7063  Coal Bitum.  6.00  7064  Glass  0.53  7090-7100  Petroleum  9.03  7153  Gasoline  2.18  7161, 7162, 7164, 7165, 7169, 7171-7175  Fertilizers  0.58  8149-8167  Paint  1.07  8 1 7 1 - 8 216/.8211  Rolling M i l l  Prod.  Blocks  4  P a i n t C S •'  s ?  5245, 5252, 5672  5641-5650,  8211  Ind.  Chemicals 2  0.92  Ind.  Chemicals 4  -  8001-8038, 8 0 1 0 * 8024  Ind.  Chemicals 5  -  8010,  8305 3251-8380'/.8305,  8024  Cons. Goods, M i s c .  2.15  9001-9025, 9050-9092, 9117-9121, 9181-9185, 9 2 5 0 , 9 2 6 1 , 9275  Rubber 3  1.51  1678,  1 6 8 0 , 1 6 8 3 , 1687  Rubber 4  1678-1732#Rubber 3 & 5  Rubber 5  1702,•• 1 7 0 3 , 1 7 0 5 - 1 7 0 7 , 1710, 1712, 1714-1719, 1 7 2 1 , 1 7 2 3 , 1 7 2 5 , 1 7 3 1 , 1732  TABLE A . V I I I  102 (Continued)  Groups A g r i c u l t u r a l & Animal  16.48  Textiles  13.3,0  Wood  2.80  Iron  29.67  Non-Ferrous  5.91  Non-Metallic  22.99  Chemicals  4.49  Miscellaneous  4.37  Residual  Series  A g r i c u l t u r a l & Animal  1,2  residual  s e r i e s o f group 1 and 2  A g r i c u l t u r a l & Animal 3  1 5 7 1 - 1 5 7 3 , 1576-1579, 1646-1669, 1744-1766 (7.1758, 1 7 5 9 ) , 1 8 1 1 , 1 8 1 3 , 1 8 1 6 , 1 8 2 5 , 1 8 2 7 , 1833, 1836, 1841, 1843, 2051, 2052, 2081, 2086, 2073, 2093, 2152, 2174, 2191-2193, 2200-2206, 2219, 2283, 2307, 2 3 2 1 , 2336, 2 3 3 9 , 2 3 4 3 , 2344  A g r i c u l t u r a l & Animal 4  1 5 8 0 , 1 5 8 1 , 1 5 8 4 , 1 8 2 4 , 1 8 3 2 , 1 8 3 5 , 1 8 4 0 , 1846 2053, 2054, 2084, 2085, 2172, 2173, 2175, 2181, 2210, 2211, 2213, 2215-2218, 2220, 2221, 2224-2226, 2294, 2295, 2297, 2299, 2239, 2241, 2243, 2244, 2288, 2289, 2293, 2302, 2304, 2308, 2 3 2 0 , 2 3 3 . 1 - 2 3 3 3 , 2338  A g r i c u l t u r a l & Animal 5  2083, 2195, 2232-2238,  Textiles  3002, 3111-3113, 3201, 3202, 3265, 3267, 3411, 3412, 3414, 3 4 2 1 , 3423, 3451-3453  Textiles  3  4  2245, 2246,  2300,  2303 3270,  3004-3009, 3011-3023, 3051-3055, 3083, 3085, 3086, 3092, 3097, 3114, 3115, 3121-3126, 3132, 3135-3139, 3174, 3179, 3180, 3213, 3216, 3224, 3228-3230, 3273-3277, 3281-3284, 3286, 3 2 8 7 , 3 2 8 9 , 3 2 9 1 - 3 2 9 3 , 3 3 4 3 , 3345 ( 0 . 5 ) , 3360-3362, 3364, 3368, 3369, 3390, 3391, 3401, 3420, 3422, 3428, 3454, 3461, 34633465, 3472-3474, 3476, 3478-3481, 34833486, 3488, 3489, 3501, 3524, 3548, 3551, 3553, 3559-3561, 3563, 3564, 3567, 3568, 3 5 7 0 , 3 5 7 4 , 3576  - 103 TABLE A.VIII (Continued) Textiles 5  3062-3064, 3066-3074, 3082, 3084, 3087, 3088, 3091, 3094-3096, 3098, 3100, 3162, 3171-3173, 3175-3178, 3244, 3246-3248, 3251, 3252, 3301-3310, 3320-3329, 3342, 3344, 3345 (0.5), 3376, 3378^3380, 3383-3388, 3392, 3393, 3424, 3425, 3429, 3460, 3475, 3487, 3510-3512, 3514-3522, 3550, 3552, 3554, 3557, 3566, 3573 ;  Wood 3  4002, 4003, 4021, 4024, 4026, 4081, 4083, 4085  Wood 4  4011, 4022, 4025, 4032-4034, 4041-4043, 4045-4059, 4067, 4069, 4071, 4073-4079, 4084, 4094, 4097, 4099, 4101-4105, 4112, 4114, 4118, 4119, 4130, 4132-4136;, 4142 (0.5), 4143, 4148, 4150, 4153, 4155, 4157  Wood 5  4091, 4120, 4125, 4141, 4142 (0.5), 41444146, 4151, 4152, 4154, 4156, 4158, 4260, 4262, 4263, 4265, 4268, 4269, 4271, 4272, 4290-4296, 4301-4303, 4305-4309, 4311  Iron 3  5031, 5032, 5033  Iron 4  5010-5015, 5018-5023, 5025, 5027, 5029, 5044-5052, 5054, 5055, 5058, 5059, 5181, 5182, 5185-5193, 5195-5199, 5200, 5201, 5203-5211, 5213-5221, 5223-5225, 5231, 52335236, 5381, 5391, 5393-5395, 5411-5413, 5422, 5423, 5594, 5691, 5694, 5700 , »7 . 5708, 5709, 5713, 5714 (0.36), 5729, 5894 :  Iron 5  5240-5244, 5246, 5248, 5251, 5253-5260, 5265-5268, 5275, 5280, 5283, 5371-5378, 5400-5404, 5421, 5425, 5426, 5600-5607, 5621 5632',v,5651-5658, 5660, 5663, 5664, 5674, 5680-5683, 5685-5687, 5689, 5690, 5692y55693, 5695-5699, 5701-5703, 5706, 5714 (0.64), 5715-5731, 5733-5740, 5892-5893 T  Non-Ferrous 3  6001-6003, 6005, ^6022, 6110, 6208, 6210, 6215-6217, 6257  Non-Ferrous 4  6004, 6006, 6007, 6009-6013, 6014 (0.72), 6015, 6023-6025, 6031, 6033, 6034, 6035 (0.67), 6042-6044, 6046-6048, 6050-6052, 6070-6075, 6082 (0.5), 6084, 6085, 6087, 6088, 609$, 6102, 6112, 6113, 6115, 6116, (0.6), 6117, 6119-6121, 6123-6126, 6211/ 6212, 6218-6220, 6229, 6235, 6238-6241, 6247-6253, 6258, 6259  -  104  TABLE A . V I I I Non-Ferrous 5  (Continued)  6014 ( 0 . 2 8 ) , 6 0 2 6 , 6 0 3 0 , 6 0 3 2 , 6035 ( 0 . 3 3 ) , 6037, 6049, 6061-6063, 6065, 6068, 6077, 6082 ( 0 . 5 ) , 6 0 8 6 , 6 0 9 3 , . 6 0 9 4 , 6 1 0 3 , 6116 ( 0 . 4 ) , 6127-6136, 6138, 6181-6183,'61916197, 6199, 6200, 6201, 6221-6223, 62256 2 2 8 , 6 2 3 0 , 6 2 3 3 , 6 2 3 4 , 6 2 3 6 , 6 2 3 7 , 6260  Non-Metallic  1,  2  Non-Metallic  3  7011-7016, 7019, 7060, 7061, 7066, 7067, 7131, 7154, 7158, 7192, 7193, 7200, 7210, 7215, 7221, 7231, 7233, 7256-7258, 72637266, 7268, 7272, 7273, 7280, 7281, 7289, 7 2 9 0 , 7 2 9 7 - 7 2 9 9 , 7 3 0 1 ( 0 . 2 5 ) , 7 3 0 2 , 7304  Non-Metallic  4  7001-7005, 7017, 7018, 7053, 7055, 7056, 7070-7074, 7077, 7081, 7084, 7086, 71117113, 7119-7123, 7127-7129, 7132, 7133, 7138, 7139, 7141, 7143, 7151, 7156, 7163, 7166-7168, 7181-7183, 7185 7187, 7191, 7194-7196, 7199, 7202, 7203, 7216, 7218, 7223-7227, 7232, 7234, 7235, 7241, 7243, 7261, 7269, 7271, 7274, 7275, 7282-7284, 7 2 8 6 , 7 2 8 8 , . 7 2 9 1 , 7 2 9 2 , 7 2 9 5 , 7 3 0 0 , 7301 ( 0 . 7 5 ) , 7 3 0 3 , 7305  7296  T  Non-Metallic  Chemicals  5  7043, 7045, 7047, 7048, 7051, 7052, 7079, 7 0 8 0 , 7 0 8 2 , 7 0 8 3 , 7 0 8 5 , 7 0 8 7 - 7 0 8 9 , 7114 7 1 2 4 - 7 1 2 6 , 7 1 8 4 , 7 2 5 4 , 7 2 7 0 , 7284  2  8423,  8433  Chemicals 3  8115  Chemicals 4  8046 , 8 0 6 9- 8 0 7 3 , 8 0 7 8 , 8 0 9 1 , 8 0 9 2 , 8 0 9 4 , 8095 , 8104- 8 1 0 6 , 8 1 0 9 , 8 1 1 1 , 8 1 1 3 , 8 1 1 4 , 8116 - 8 1 1 9 , 8 1 2 1 , 8 1 3 1 - 8 1 3 4 , 8 1 3 6 - 8 1 3 8 , 8388 , 8 3 8 9 , 8 3 9 1 , 8 3 9 4 - 8 3 9 9 , 8 4 0 0 - 8 4 0 6 , 8408 , 8 4 1 0- 8 4 1 2 , 8 4 1 4 , 8415 ( 0 . 8 5 ) , 8 4 1 6 , 8417 , 8422 , 8 4 2 5 , 8 4 2 8 - 8 4 3 1 , 8 4 3 4 , 8 4 3 5 , 8437 , 8 5 0 0 , 8 5 3 0 , 8 5 5 0 , 8 5 7 0 , 8 6 0 0 , 8 6 3 0 , 8 6 5 0 , 8 6 7 0 , 8700 ( 0 . 4 ) , 8 7 2 0 , 8 7 5 0 , 8 7 7 0 , 8 8 0 0 , 8830 , 8 8 5 0 , 8 8 7 0 , 8 9 0 0 , 8 9 3 0 , 8950 ( 0 . 4 )  Chemicals 5  8052-8054, 8056, 8059, 8074-8076, 8079, 8081-8086, 8135, 8221, 8222, 8224, 8232, 8234-8236, 8238, 8392, 8393, 8407, 8 4 1 3 , . 8415 ( 0 . 1 5 ) , 8 4 3 2 , 8700 ( 0 . 6 ) , 8 9 5 0 , ( 0 . 6 )  M i s c e l l a n e o u s 1,  2  9103  TABLE A . V I I I  105  -  (Continued)  Miscellaneous 3  9269  Miscellaneous 4  9135, 9253,  Miscellaneous 5  9110, 9111, 9114-9118, 9120-9124, 91279130, 9132-9134, 9136-9150, 9152, 9153, 9155-9157, 9160-9164, 9166, 9168, 9169, 9171-9175, 9181-9184, 9197, 9202, 9204, 9207, 9208, 9212, 9237-9240, 9242-9244, 9 2 4 6 , 9 2 4 7 , 9 2 5 2 , 9 2 5 4 - 9 2 6 0 , 9 2 6 3 , 92659 2 6 7 , 9 2 7 0 , 9 2 7 1 , 9273  9187, 9262  9199,  9209,  9215,  9249,  - 106 TABLE A.IX  Disaggregated Export Series, 1948-1960 Code Numbers and 1948 Weights  Series Wheat  Weight (%)  Code Number  10.12 .  430  Barley-  1.13  340  Whisky  1.13  1030  Wheat Flower  5.21  500  Oats  0.93  380  Tobacco  0.30  1500, 1510, 1520, 1530, 1540  Beef  1.52  2605  Cattle, Slaughter  2.31  2045, 2050, 2055  Cattle, Dairy  0.49  2010, 2035, 2040  Milk  0.35  2715, 2720, 2725, 2730  Eggs  1.01  2820  Fish 2  1.91 .  2115-2405VFish 3 fr 4  Fish 3  -  2392, 2394, 2395  Fish 4  -  2398, 2400, 2405  Leather 3  0.32  Leather 4  -  2557 2535, 2540, 2545, 2550, 2551, 2555, 2560  Furs  0.76  2420-2470  Hides  0.35  2505  Newsprint  13.85  4830  Wood Pulp  7.50  4630, 4635, 4645, 4650, 4655, 4660, 4670-4672, 4680, 4685, 4690  Planks  6.74  4240, 4250, 4260, 4270, 4280, 4290, 4300, 4310, 4320, 4330, 4340  Pulpwood  1.58  4530, 4540, 4550, 4555  Shingles  0.80  4430  Plywood  0.43  4455, 4457  Iron Ore  0.48  5010  Farm Machinery  4.71  5290-5470  Machinery  0.63  5580-5710  V  TABLE A . I X Pig  Iron  107 (Continued) 0.32  5055  3.51  5770, 5810,  5780, 5820  Copper 3  "2.63  6130,  6150  Copper 4  -  6160,  6170 6230  Automobiles  Lead 3  1.20  6220,  Lead 4  -  6240  Aluminum 3  3.25.  6010  -  6020,  6025  Nickel 3  2.58  6260,  6270  Nickel 4  -  6280  1.44  6370,  -  6380  Aluminum 4  Zinc 3 Zinc  4  6390  Silver  3  0.23  6330  Silver  4  -  6340  Platinum  0.58  6310,  6320  Asbestos  1.92  7010,  7020,  Abrasives  0.64  7360  Coal  0.53  7110,  7120  Fertilizers  1.19  8160,  8180,  Groups Agricultural  & Animal  33.99  Textiles  1.48  Wood  31.01  Iron  11.80  Non-Ferrous  12.87  Non-Metallic  3.09  Chemicals  2.60  Miscellaneous  3.1'6  Residual  Series  Agricultural  & Animal  1,2  Residuals,  Agricultural  & Animal  3  345, 1080, 1160, 1170, 1190, 1200, 1360-1470, C/.1460), 1600, 1680, 1690, 1700, 2100, 2110, 2112, 2485-2490, 2 5 0 0 - 2 5 2 0 C / 2 5 0 5 ) , 2705, 2 8 1 2 , 2 8 1 3 , 2 8 2 5 , 2835  a g r i c u l t u r a l and a n i m a l  -  108 -  TABLE A . I X ( C o n t i n u e d ) A g r i c u l t u r a l and A n i m a l 4  610, 1110-1140,. 1210, 1220, 1270, 1280, 1290, 1300, 1305, 1340, 1720, 1730, 2472, 2475 2565, 2580, 2750, 2754, 2756, 2759, 2769, 2773-2775, 2780, 2790, 28052768 2830 2807  A g r i c u l t u r a l and A n i m a l  1230 1321 2577 2565  1240, 1260, 1311, 1315, 1317, 1319, 1325, 1330, 2480, 2570, 2574, 2575, 2585, 2590, 2593, 2553, 2561, 2563, 2 5 6 6 , 2810  5  Textiles  3  3010 3180  3020, 3080, 3090, 3095, 3 1 8 3 , 3,185, 3 1 8 7 , 3 3 2 0  Textiles  4  3015 3186 3335 3413  3030, 3200, 3337, 3435,  Textiles  5  3042 3066 3210 3385 3420  3044, 3047, 3068, 3130, 3225, 3230, 3390, 3400, 3430  Wood 3  4010 4130 4910  4015-4080, 4090, 4100, 4110, 4120, 4220, 4425, 4470, 4500, 4510, 4570, 4920  Wood 4  4140 4370 4460 4770 4850 4940  4150, 4380, 446-5, 4780, 4860, 4951  4350, 4440, 4740, 4835, 4925,  4360, 4450, 4760, 4840, 4930,  Wood 5  4600 4772 4960  4605, 4610, 4705, 4710, 4730, 4775, 4865, 4870, 4945, 4947, 4 9 7 0 , 4 9 8 0 , 4990  4750, 4957,  Iron 3  5070  Iron 4  5015 5080 5150 5200 5530 5960  5020, 5030, 5090, 5100, 5160, 5165, 5210, 5220, 5540, 5545,  5040, 5110, 5170, 5240, 5550,  5050, 5120, 5180, 5510, 5570,  5057, 5130, 5190, 5515, 5905,  5060, 5140 5195, 5520, 5920,  Iron 5  5230 5725 5760 5860 5910 5955  526.0, 5730, 5830, 5870, 5925, 5965,  5270, 5740, 5840, 5875, 5930, 5970  5490, 5745, 5850, 5877, 5935,  5500, 5750, 5851, 5880, 3940,  5560, 5755, 5855, 5890, 5945,  57-20, 5757, 5859, 5900, 5950,  6080 6620  6300, 6630  6560,  6570,  6573,  6575,  6580.  Non-Ferrous  3  3035, 3040, 3250, 3261, 3340, 3350, 3437, 3450,  4160, 4400, 4560, 4790, 4880,  3050, 3190, 3270, 3405,  4200, 4410, 4620, 4800, 4890,  3160, 3170,  3070, 3100, 3140, 3262, 3300, 3330, 3355, 3360, 3370, 3 4 5 5 , 3460 3060, 3202, 3280, 3407,  4205, 4420, 4720, 4810, 4900,  3062, 3064, 3205, 3207, 3290, 3380, 3409, 3415,  -  109  TABLE A . I X  (Continued)  Non-Ferrous  4  6027 6110 6250 6615 6670  6040, 6050, 6175, 6180, 6350, 6400, 6 6 4 0 , 664'2, 6680  6090, 6190, 6590, 6645,  6100, 6210, 6605, 6655,  6105, 6245, 6610, 6660,  Non-Ferrous  5  6030 6460 6511  6410, 6470, 6512,  6431, 6432, 6440, 6480, 6483, 6485, 6520, 6525, 6530,  6450, 6490, 6550  6420, 6475, 6515,  6095, 6200, 6600, 6650,  Non-Metallic  3  7220 7450 7550 7660  7240, 7280,^7350, 7520, 7530, 7535, 7560, 7570, 7580, 7690  7375, 7540, 7620,  7410, 7545, 7630,  7420, 7547, 7640,  Non-Metallic  4  7035 7130 7210 7310 7430  7037, 7140, 7230, 7315, 7480,  7060, 7065, 7170, 7180, 7260, 7290, 7370, 73&0, 7510, 7610,  7100, 7190, 7300, 7390, 7615  7080  7183, 7185,  8080  8380  Chemicals 4  8020 8130 8260 8355 8440 8473  8030, 8140, 8270, 8360, 8444, 8475,  8050,38060,88090, ,8220, 8 2 2 5 , 8 2 3 0 , 8280, 8320, 8330, 8385, 8387, 8390, 8455, 8457, 8465, 8 4 8 1 , 8490  8100, 8240, 8340, 8400, 8470,  8120, 8250, 8350, 8410, 8471-  Chemicals  8103 8297  8105, 8300,  8108, 8110, 8305, 8310,  8285, 8445,  8290, 8460  8295,  9035, 9120, 9177, 9235, 9320, 9355, 9417, 9555,  9050, 9140, 9190, 9250, 9335, 9380, 9430, 9557  9055, 9150, 9200, 9280, 9341, 9390, 9440,  9060, 9160, 9210, 9290, 9342, 9400, 9460,  *<fon—Ms'i =L • ~' c !  Non-Mefallic  5  C h e m i c a l s 1,  2  ^  5  Miscellaneous  1,2  9260  Miscellaneous  3  9510,  Miscellaneous  4 \  9500  ~s  M i s c e l l a n e o u s .5  9020, 9100, 9170, 9220, 9300, 9345, 9410, 9480,  7040, 7150, 7245, 7320, 7490,  7050, 7160, 7250, 7330, 7500, 7187  9520  9030, 9110, 9175, 9230, 9310, 9350, 9415, 9535,  9040, 9130, 9180, 9240, 9330, 9360, 9425, 9540,  - no TABLE A . X  Disaggregated  Import S e r i e s ,  1960-1972.  Code N u m b e r s , 1948 a n d 1968 W e i g h t s Series  W e i g h t s (%)• I 1948 1968  Code Numbers  Vegetables  0.32  8.96  9103-9199  Sugar  2.78  8.37  1 0 1 1 5 , 10119  Cocoa  0.80  2.19  11110  Coffee  1.25  12.99  11210  Tea  0.86  4.17  11310  1.84  18.72  0.85  7.22  6129  -  7.07  1104-1399  Fresh  Fruits  Indian Corn Meat Live  Animals  7103-7189  0.07  100.00  Soyabeans  0.50  3.27  F u r s £.  1.18  -  C o t t o n , Raw  3.39  5.25  24410  W o o l , Raw  1.35  0.81  24209,  24219  Wool,  1.43  1.75  24259,  24268  Synthetics 3  0.74  -  I r o n Ore  0.59  Coal  Anthr.  2.65  Coal  Bitum.  6.00  16*23-''-  26149  Petroleum  9.03  39.16  26410  Rubber 3  1.44  1.72  21610-21649  Hides  0.17  0.90  20110  Bauxite  0.64  8.61  25210-25299  -  5.02  25339,  0.81  -  39308-39399  1.27  4.97  37302-37398  Jute  1.04  1.07  37404-37449  Worsteds  1.91  1.30  37203-37259  Paperboard 4  1.20  -  35181-35999  Rolling  1.41  7.01  44403-44690,  0.51  1.31  45608  Tops  Copper Ores Vegetable Cotton,  Tin,  Oils  Fabrics  Mill  Blocks  5.11 .  -  110-999 21260 20220-20289  24617-24699 25120=25199 26105-26115  25399  44739-=44799  -  TABLE A . X '  Ill  -  (Continued)  Glass  0.53  . -  47303-47318  Gasoline  1.91  1.39  43109-43149  Fertilizers  0.36  -  41623-41699  Ind.  0.92  18.08  42907-42999  -  1.23  38702-38795  1.48  33507-33599/33707-33899  4.78  43259  0.86  40000-40599  -  1.29  40600-41399  Farm M a c h i n e r y  5.33  0.84  54000-55199  Machinery  8.26  -  50000-52999  Automobiles  5.80  50.21  58000-58999  Electric  3.18  6.45  63419-63999, 68000-68995  -  3.91  52101-52199  Chemicals 4  Coated,  Fabrics  Veneers Heavy F u e l s Inorg. Org.  -  Chemicals  Chemicals  Drilling  Machinery  Section 2  10.78  100.00  1104-18399  Section 3  32.82  100.00  20110-29199  Section 4  26.79  100.00  30110-49704  Section 5  29.54  100.00  50119-96199  65506-65599,  TABLE A . X I  112  -  Disaggregated  Export Series,  Code N u m b e r s ,  Series  Wheat  W e i g h t s (%) 1948 1968  1960-1972  .  1948 a n d 1968 W e i g h t s  C o d e Numbers  10.12  51.72  Barley  1.13  3.26  Whisky  1.13  12.87  17340  Wheat F l o w e r  5 ;21  4.55  6267,  Oats  0.93  -  6131, 6133,  Tobacco  0.30  4.36  18005-18399  Beef  1.52  1.25  1109/1104,  Milk  0.35  -  5150-5199  Eggs  1.01  -  .5319/5935  Cheese  0.50  1.27  Fish  1.91  11.79  2.80  100.00  Furst;  0.76  1.16  20203-20289  Hides  0.35  0.76  20110  Pulpwood  1.58  0.96  23624-23699  I r o n Ores  0.48  20.35  25104-25119  Nickel 3  -  11.88  25520,  25530,  Platinum  0.58  1.74  25629,  25639  Asbestos  1.20  5.99  27110-27140  Petroleum  -  20.90  26410  N a t u r a l Gas  T  7.20  26431  Live  Animals  616146169 6119  6269  1105, 1107,  5130, 5139/5114,  5149  3106-4999 110-999  Coal  0.53  -  26169,  Leather  0.26  -  30012-30099  13.85  25.91  35109  Woodpulp  7.50  15.72  34019-34099  Planks  6.7.4  14.66  33106^33195  Shingles  0.80  -  33403-33405  Plywood  0.43  -  33544-33579  Newsprint  6139  26189  25540  1108  -  TABLE A . X I  Pig  Iron  113  -  (Continued)  0.32  0.71  44219  Copper  1.85  7.56  45204-45214  Aluminum  3.08  10.87  45109-45149  Nickel  1.56'  6.15  45415-45499  Zinc'  1.28  1.97  45708  Abrasives  0.64  0.89  47619-47699  Fertilizers  1.19  Rolling  0.58  2.29  44430-44599  0115  0.37  49075/49697/49704  5.13  40003-41499  Mill  Electricitiy Chemicals  41644-41699  Farm Machinery  4.71  4.07  54109-55199  Machinery  0.63  10.28  50019-53010  Automobiles  3.51  76.34  58019-58099/58110-58999  Cons.  2.36  1.50  78009-78099/78149'-78999 and 6 3 0 3 5 - 6 3 0 6 0 / 6 3 0 7 0 63079/63720-63799  0.65  0.33  62005-62039/62105-62549  Section 2  28.97  100.00  1104-18399  Section 3  8.55  100.00  20110-29199  Section 4  45.43  100.00  30010-49704  Section 5  14.25  100.00  50239-96099  Goods  Rubber  - 114 -  TABLE A.XII  YEAR  DISAGGREGATED VALUE AND PRICE SERIES, IMPOSTS 1948-1972 1. SUBPERIOD 1948-1960 PRICE  QUANTITY BANANAS  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1. 189 1.280 1.246 1.,189 1.J218 1J246 1.*250 1.'219 1.227 1./171 1. 152 1.\034  17199.000 14326.325 15189.062 15728.732 17610.597 18752.053 18470.305 18447.200 19214.110 19880.196 20215.201 21167.535 2364 3.133  PRICE  CITRUS FRUITS 1.000 1.430 1.613 1.475 1.315 1.234 1.473 1.434 1.601 1.607 2.125 1.679 1.841  jFRUITS , DRIED 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.J051 1.;151 1.302 1.155 1.206 1.247 1.26 3 1.265 1.324 1.559 1.569 1.567  10373.000 9172.217 10319.722 9794.931 11213.853 10436.982 10469.928 11154.394 9773.913 10032.477 10688.262 10982.154 10341.417  VEGETABLES 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .941 .772 1.066 1. 175 .769 .772 .903 .900 .934 1.006 .925 .947  6845.000 19617.428 30128.238 24666.979 32314.043 38036.411 45090.674 45545.958 53142.222 47297.645 46392.644 50449.730 55192.186  QUANTITY  18837.000 15571.329 15208.927 18101.017 20313.308 21479.741 21230.143 20852.859 20359.775 20450.529 16968.471 21033.949 19841.391 NUTS  1.000 1.056 .784 .838 .826 .815 . 833 .768 .767 .738 .750 .664 .763  31027.000 21957.386 28536.990 27183.771 25518.160 24600.000 27132.053 24410.156 27288.136 29323.848 25757.333 30509.036 28714.286  SUGAR 1.000 1.049 1. 194 1.397 .990 .822 .777 .765 .769 1.105 .792 .737 .737  63061.000 63037.178 64663.317 55189.692 60147.475 57774.939 66305.019 68381.699 72598.179 68445.249 73962.121 77082.768 68761.194  - 115 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  COCOA 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .660 .714 .963 .886 .797 1.379 1. 106 .708 .617 1.121 .919 .713  COFFEE 14790.000 15421.212 15009.804 9867.082 10787.810 12328.733 11323.423 10473.779 10566.384 11306.321 9161.463 10515.778 12767.181  1.000 1.074 1.884 2.052 1.948 2.007 2.521 2.056 2. 142 2.004 1.749 1.404 1.345  TEA 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.014 1.056 1.003 .829 .866 1.041 1. 184 1.085 1.042 1.023 1.009 1.072  WHISKY 17520.000 20835.306 26802.083 20783.649 22541.616 22789.838 22652.257 21607.264 22727.189 23214.012 22307.918 22789.891 21903.918  IND. CHEMICALS 12 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .971 1. 146 1.218 1. 103 1.109 1.109 1.124 1.150 1. 143 1. 160 1. 148 1. 165  23426.000 26614.525 22114.650 23605.263 26065.195 28697.060 25471.638 27728.599 29251.634 29500.998 31590.623 35844.729 35177.695  2.000 8.239 41.885 25.452 14.506 15.329 19.838 4.448 7.826 4.374 12.931 11.324 6.009  1.000 1.004 .995 .964 .941 .951 .968 .962 .984 .942 .928 .907 .905  8093.000 10750.996 9240.201 10220.954 11965.994 10597.266 9252.066 9402.287 9148.374 10063.694 9952.586 8745.314 8459.669 AGR.+ANIM. 12  1.000 .948 1.006 1. 188 .979 .940 .961 .922 . 937 .954 .924 . 860 .852  93003.000 102533.755 124746.521 137117.003 151273.749 170206.383 186418.314 208823.210 254394.877 267832.285 297311.688 337416.279 349253.521  - 116 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  NON-METALLIC 12 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.009 1.034 1.084 1.011 1.050 1.038 1.016 1.014 1.073 1.060 1.027 .986  +0.0 + 0.0 +0.0 .923 2.967 1.905 7.707 19.685 27.613 33.551 32.075 61.344 56.795  MISCELLANEOUS 12 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .994 1. 196 1.577 1.214 1.117 1.062 1.158 1. 153 1.111 1.063 1. 135 1.219  57.000 62.374 72.742 65.314 114.498 152. 193 207.156 215.889 262.793 284.428 383.819 444.053 508.614  FURS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .746 .753 .868 .669 .674 .610 .808 .781 .750 .692 .680 .714  CHEMICALS 12 1.000 1.005 1.019 1.195 1.108 1.113 1.092 1.109 1.120 1. 106 1.125 1. 104 1.112  1344.000 1574.129 774.289 573.222 514.440 486.972 617.216 527.502 4 83.0 36 510.850 480.000 563.406 612.410  SOYABEANS 1.000 .747 . 888 1.033 .877 .828 .895 .716 .727 .669 .633 .625 .622  4937.000 7314.592 13670.045 15912.875 15997.719 15646.135 23461.453 27178.771 33530.949 35466.368 37033.175 44892.800 51774.920  COTTON, HAW 21980.000 21841.823 24916.335 20141.705 29563.528 24489.614 24516.393 24882.426 24623.560 27910.667 29815.029 30702.941 26701.681  1.000 .970 1.176 1.395 1.207 1.052 1.046 1.052 .927 .869 .885 .830 .770  55546.000 67707.216 75221.939 67609.319 54644.573 52750.951 50134.799 58014.259 63374.326 56947.066 51317.514 51902.410 56320.779  - 117 -  TABLE A..XII (CONTINUED)  WOOL, HAW 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.044 1.366 3.237 1.302 1.476 1.536 1.427 1.379 1.465 1. 188 .967 1. 133  BOOL, TOPS  23636.000 18054.598 19623.719 16793.636 13864.823 15128.726 9582.682 12880.168 14828.861 10935.836 8773.569 12064.116 11172.992  SISAL 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.095 .957 1.493 1.403 . 763 .642 .587 .606 .519 .498 .544 .683  1.000 1.043 1.120 1.142 1.042 1.034 1.031 1.053 1.127 1.132 1.158 1. 147 1.177  23471. 000 16421. 442 21474. 299 180 22.336 9954. 677 17158. 399 11800. 715 14520. 450 14343. 882 13884. 964 13209. 622 15664. 294 15150. 057  SYNTHETICS 3 11043.000 5779.909 8606.061 12393.168 12132.573 6904.325 8646.417 9921.635 10028.053 11423.892 9397.590 11454.044 8929.722  PAPERBOARD 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1. 082 1. 284 2. 149 1.037 1. 149 1. 1 19 * 978 • 948 1. 104 • 873 • 843 873  1189.000 513.902 1387.500 2904.553 826.296 933.269 1081.474 1697.056 1908.607 1132.509 1447.323 1401.046 1027.188  1.000 .994 1.011 1.264 1.117 .999 1.000 .987 . 967 .961 1.001 1.004 1.032  3414.000 3722.334 2722.057 8077.532 3773.500 4059.059 3553.000 6915.907 7504.654 9952.133 4427.572 5826.693 5354.651  IRON ORE 1.000 1.327 1.498 1.640 1.670 1.898 1.885 1.926 2.036 2.087 2. 136 2.069 2. 062  15507.000 9085.908 11215.621 138 23.780 15879.641 14854.584 10830.769 16387.850 19018.664 174 35.074 13544.944 13112.131 23457.808  - 118 -  TftBLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  COAL, A NTH. 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.072 1. 169 1. 237 1. 185 1.260 1. 124 1.076 1.114 1.214 1. 155 1.084 1.029  56292.000 42535.448 46420.017 41421.180 41713.080 31808.730 29487.544 27996.283 26836.625 20234.761 16527.273 16122.694 12833.819  COAL, BITUM. 1.000 1.032 1.047 1.004 .949 .939 .893 .880 .968 1.045 1.051 1.039 1.020  PETROLEUM 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.006 1.002 1.090 1.002 1.030 1.061 1.042 1.001 1.074 1.036 .949 .878  RUBBER 3  191980.000 188234.592 200105.788 211959.633 206425.150 201928.155 200278.982 220230.326 270611.389 284503.724 264428.571 292407.798 318987.472  AGF.+ANIH. 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .948 1.006 1. 188 .979 .940 .961 .922 .937 .954 .924 .860 .852  127673.000 90557.171 113455.587 114815.737 104922.023 100830.671 78885.778 84605.682 99706.612 86786.603 63812.559 62670.837 60608.824  22130.000 31814.346 34584.493 33440.236 23707.865 24806.383 21891.779 28866.594 36758.805 33068.134 33134.199 41298.837 39334.507  1.000 .858 1.585 2.973 1.661 1.208 1.085 1.710 1.632 1.472 1.220 1.595 1. 849  18404.000 17427.739 19591.167 20448.369 15402.769 18408.940 18543.779 21250.292 19742.647 18295.516 16136.885 19361.129 15027.582  TEXTILES 3 1.000 1.007 1.091 1.558 1.070 1.001 .998 .953 .893 .908 .869 .831 .856  11664.000 12873.883 15582.035 16297.176 14140.187 13577.423 12113.226 14444.911 15631.579 14386.564 12948.216 13575.211 12674.065  - 119 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  WOOD 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.059 1.118 1. 199 1. 139 1. 161 1.160 1.178 1.225 1.242 1.353 1.361 1.383  IRON 3 3742-000 3093.484 3311.270 5522.102 4303.775 5422.911 5739.655 8182.513 12091.429 9869.565 7493.718 8671.565 10930.586  NON-FERROUS; 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.064 1.088 1.223 1.200 1. 190 1.202 1.256 1.345 1.289 1.289 1.321 1.363  1.000 1.005 1.019 1.195 1. 108 1.113 1. 092 1. 109 1. 120 1.106 1.125 1. 104 1. 112  10454.000 7433.803 4621.575 3123.987 5801.527 2839.184 1656.958 11060.092 25872.416 13133.378 5782.551 15670.178 12139.687  NON -METALLIC 3  21792.000 21482.143 25306.985 33863.451 3 8929.167 24780.672 22062.396 28893.312 35953.160 52195.500 30908.456 35728.236 4 0862.069  CHEHICALS 3 194 8 1949 1950 1951 . 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.065 1.168 1.234 1.179 1.225 1.236 1.298 1.403 1.477 1.513 1.519 1.532  1.000 1.009 1.034 1.084 1.011 1. 050 1.038 1.016 1.014 1.073 1.060 1.027 .986  25733.000 24071.358 26361.702 28100.554 334 35.213 33743.810 27245.665 32830.709 38964.497 40757.689 40574.528 34376.826 34421.907  MISCELLANEOUS 3 33.000 41.791 27.478 41.841 41.516 23.360 71.429 10.821 9.821 16.275 7. 111 19.928 6.295  1.000 .994 1.196 1.577 1.214 1.117 1.062 1.158 1.153 1. 111 1.063 1.135 1.219  270.000 189.135 229.9 33 196.576 119.440 68.935 62.147 72.539 95.403 169.217 114.770 144.493 175.554  - 120 TABLE A . X I I  (CONTINUED)  VEGET. OILS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .951 .865 1. 126 .736 .714 .670 .631 .722 .679 .601 .574 .605  20912.000 25037.855 39593.064 34591.474 30539.402 36504.202 39501.493 40405.705 36663.435 3 8329.897 50497.504 50770.035 44968.595  COTTON, FABEICS 1.000 .818 .872 .964 .810 .726 .661 .711 .709 .690 .639 .645 .675  JUTE 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .933 .940 1.411 .848 .609 .596 .563 .523 .550 .543 .563 .6 23  HOESTEDS 17203.000 12056.806 15606.383 12749.823 17627.358 18522.167 16719.799 20174.067 21007.648 19543w636 20373.849 21488.455 18727.127  SYNTHETICS 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .994 1.011 1.264 1. 117 .999 1.000 .987 .967 .961 1.001 1.004 1.032  52819.000 6 4383.863 52638.761 57037.344 65738.272 77005.510 69609.682 75105.485 87630.465 94273.913 103549.296 108617.054 111333.333  13870.000 14197.183 7391.691 8348.101 16005.372 19906.907 19237.000 22710.233 24374.354 26365.245 26868.132 27815.737 26603.682  1.000 1.094 .949 1.217 1.014 .989 1.023 .940 .826 .826 .972 .917 .949  31239.000 30968.007 26080.084 25690.222 24092.702 31772.497 22471.163 22 227.660 31474.576 30104.116 22985.597 23654.308 22782.929  PAPERBOARD 4 1.000 1.043 1. 120 1. 142 1.04 2 1.034 1.031 1.053 1. 127 1.132 1.158 1. 147 1. 177  12443.000 14934.803 15316.071 21556.042 20993.282 28067.698 31002.910 36479.582 39951.198 40763.251 42133.851 44163.034 43022.090  - 121 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  SOLLIHG MILL i  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  LOOO 1.077 1.198 1.393 1.254 1.274 1.274 1.383 1.488 1.581 1.603 1.567 1.641  83929.000 91079.851 78162.771 124283.561 114141.148 97969.388 76580.063 93766.450 157734.543 138575.585 92009.357 87639.438 82119.439  TIN, BLOCKS 1.000 .967 .970 1.44 3 1.222 1.017 . 884 .930 .988 .936 .929 1.000 .998  BRICKS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.045 1. 151 1.214 1.126 1. 179 1.221 1.293 1.369 1.390 1.432 1.451 1.483  9660.000 9822.967 9868.810 13817.957 13983.126 13910.941 10389.844 13293.117 15915.997 13900.719 11097.067 13128.877 12720.162  GAS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .933 1.043 1.048 .985 1.056 .880 .888 .914 .943 .909 .875 .986  7898.000 8130.300 10656.701 13566.875 8670.213 8125.860 8418.552 9477.419 8293.522 9122.863 7599.569 9182.000 8274.549 GLASS  1.000 1.051 1.202 1.376 1.282 1.343 1.390 1.434 1.496 1.492 1.509 1.487 1.480  11232.000 9717.412 9411.814 9183.140 7522.621 11008.191 8802.878 12675.732 14470.588 11489.276 13356.528 17406.859 13700.000  FERTILIZERS 87562.000 71176.849 83490.892 89193.702 108986.802 109932.765 121817.045 129427.928 130574.398 122452.810 105936.194 126202.286 85733.266  1.000 1.024 1.081 1.053 1.053 1.076 1,098 1.126 1.171 1.186 1.155 1.153 1.166  6298.000 7585.937 8133.210 9719.848 9938.272 11142.193 10837.887 11274.423 11321.947 11489.882 11233.766 11102.342 12199.828  - 122 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  PAINT 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .982 .953 1.057 .989 .978 .983 1.005 1.039 1.058 1.098 1.080 1.097  14051.000 13900.204 18824.764 19459.792 17001.011 21069.530 19805.697 22547.264 23889.317 21158.790 18704.007 20859.259 18797.630  RUBBER 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .858 1.585 2.973 1-661 1.208 1.085 1.710 1.632 1.472 1.220 1.595 1.84 9  10246.000 13335.664 9151.420 5936.091 9532.210 14784.768 15573.272 14356.140 16825.368 20098.505 23028.689 24914.107 18315.306  IND. CHEMICALS 4 1.000 .971 1. 146 1.218 1.103 1.109 1. 109 1.124 1. 150 1. 143 1. 160 1. 148 1.165  AGR.+ANIM. 4 1.000 .948 1.006 1.188 .979 .940 .961 .922 .937 .954 .924 .860 .852  TEXTILES 4 194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.007 1.091 1.558 1.070 1.001 .998 .953 .893 .908 .869 .831 .856  67269.000 57757.696 54120.073 48387.035 60871.028 77464.535 66599.198 81901.364 98410.974 94438.326 97729.574 112341.757 110825.935  23827.000 23884.655 25612.565 29010.673 29399.819 35436.429 37963.931 43121.886 44049.565 32757.655 27989.655 29154.181 29449.785  24004.000 18159.283 22842.942 23112.795 19241.062 23331.915 21496.358 27415.401 26728.922 27538.784 29097.403 33505.814 32393.192 WOOD 4  1. 000 1. 059 1. 118 1. 199 1. 139 1. 161 1. 160 1. 178 1.225 1. 242 1.353 1. 361 1. 383  19791.000 22871.577 24833.631 33018.349 33820.896 34878.553 35464.655 44487.267 52604.898 45900.161 44327.421 59924.320 48015.184  - 123 -  TABLE A . X I I  (CONTINUED)  NON -FERROUS 4  IEON 4  J  • \s  ') *' J.'  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.065 1. 168 1.234 1.179 1.225 1.236 1.298 1.403 1.477 1.513 1.519 1.532  64775.000 73819.718 69580.479 99597.245 116492.791 106245.714 104155.340 102442.219 163323.592 170681.110 120940.516 105578.012 96535.901  NON-METALLIC 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1 .000 1 .009 1 .034 1 .084 1 .011 1 .050 1 .038 1 .016 1 .014 1 .073 1 .060 1 .027 .986  6 9 6 4 0 . 000 67250. 743 7 0 1 1 5 . 087 92074. 723 89537. 09 2 9 4 0 7 1 . 429 85733. 141 106023. 622 121274. 162 110723. 206 9 5 3 1 7 . 925 104535. 540 110324. 544  1 .000 1 .064 1 .088 1 .223 1 .200 1 .190 1 .202 1 .256 1.345 1 .289 1 .289 1 .321 1 .363  CHEMICALS 4 1 .000 1 .005 1 .019 1 .195 1 .108 1 .113 1 .092 1 .109 1 .120 1.106 1 .125 1 .104 1 .112  MISCELLANEOUS 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1. 000 * 994 1. 196 1. 577 1. 214 1. 117 1. 062 1. 158 1. 153 1. 111 1w 063 1. 135 1. 219  2901.000 4127.767 3239.967 3168.675 3952.224 5259.624 5249.529 4942.142 5895.056 7085.509 6442.145 7206.167 5724.364  42226. 000 43482. 143 55088. 235 5 7 5 0 1 . 226 56699. 167 714 30. 252 6 2 0 9 1 . 514 6 7 9 1 5 . 605 9 6 0 3 1 . 970 86730. 023 76568. 658 72695.685 72460.015  5 9 4 7 1 . 000 68970. 149 82476. 938 86010. 879 93059.567 107230. 009 104014. 652 126864.743 141807. 143 158327. 306 155394. 667 183290. 761 192208.633 NEWSPAPERS  1.000 1 .068 1 .107 1.192 1.305 1 .342 1 .365 1 .384 1 .389 1.441 1 .714 1.750 1 .779  16413. 000 17013.109 19131. 888 22832. 215 23471. 264 26964. 978 26980. 220 26899. 566 26596. 112 27623. 178 23025. 671 23749. 714 23223. 721  - 124 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  PAPERBOARD 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.043 1,120 1.142 1.042 1.034 1.031 1 .053 1.127 1.132 1.158 1.147 1.177  3580.000 3791.946 4219.643 6039.405 6895.393 8917.795 10163.919 11861.349 1334 6.051 13094.523 13184.801 13959.024 14497.026  MACHINERY 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.057 1.136 1.208 1. 144 1 .166 1. 183 1.230 1.317 1.368 1.418 1.428 1.465  217090.000 204650.899 199162.852 272136.589 315532.343 344644.940 321402.367 362500.000 477236.902 461695.175 375822.285 409828.431 395761.775  FARM MACHINERY 1.000 1.080 1,166 1. 231 1. 166 1.178 1. 168 1. 183 1.224 1-245 1.315 1,346 1.383  AUTOMOBILES 1.000 1.059 1. 138 1.148 1.142 1.149 1. 134 1. 180 1.240 1.266 1.324 1.345 1.340  ELECTRIC 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1 .047 1 .046 1.153 1.213 1.239 1.259 1.283 1.349 1.421 1.471 1.468 1.484  62127.000 66668.577 78933.078 104163.920 115059.357 160028.249 164844.321 176706.937 190727.947 175459.536 16 32 30.455 183516.349 175520.889  139992.000 164084. 259 138629. 503 158474. 411 169181. 818 177540. 747 122571. 918 150673. 711 189663.399 1624 33.735 150792. 395 203433. 135 165335. 503  151318. 000 177588. 291 242960. 457 267135. 017 257826. 620 315170. 583 256967. 372 348041. 525 417063. 710 354827. 804 341771. 903 426736. 059 446061. 940 CHINA  1.000 1.092 .990 1.086 1.052 1. 059 1.076 1.130 1.181 1.150 1.204 1.228 1.269  12489. 000 12242. 674 12800. 000 13979. 742 11827. 947 12147. 309 11948. 885 11774.336 11756. 986 11220. 000 11776. 578 11299. 674 10479. 905  - 125 -  TABLE A.XII (COHTINDED)  PAINT 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 i960  1.000 .982 .953 1.057 .989 .978 .983 1.005 1.039 1.058 1.098 1.080 1.097  226.000 220.978 284.365 276.254 404.449 606.339 661.241 572.139 650.626 675.803 720.401 977.778 992.707  IND. CHEMICALS 5 1.000 .971 1. 146 1.218 1. 103 1.109 1.109 1. 124 1. 150 1.143 1.160 1.148 1. 165  CONS. GOODS 1948 194 9 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 . 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .986 1.033 1. 103 1.020 1.013 .995 .993 .988 .976 .986 .971 .992  24693.000 31573.022 42444.337 61165.005 82076.471 104630.800 92129.648 103124.874 113500.000 108473.361 112784.990 121338.826 108308.468  AGE.tANIM. 5 194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .948 1.006 1. 188 .979 .940 .961 .922 .937 .954 .924 .860 .852  4878.000 5196.203 5743.539 5773.569 6835.546 9892.553 8388.137 9050.976 9784.418 10125.786 12049.784 15519.767 15852.113  72.000 71.061 114.311 160.099 274.705 542.831 445.446 645.018 401.739 326.334 379.310 438.153 536.481  ROBBER 5  i.ooo  .858 1.585 2.973 1.661 1,208 1.085 1.710 1.632 1.472 1.220 1.595 1.849  2956.000 3059.441 1969.716 2047.763 6452.739 8668.046 8038.710 8244.444 10650.735 10118.886 14363.934 14121.630 12473.229  TEXTILES 5 1.000 1.007 1.091 1.558 1.070 1.001 .998 .953 .893 . 908 .869 .831 .856  39445.000 37416.087 38350.137 33268.293 49631.776 70553.447 67232.465 79187.828 96008.959 96373.348 101527.043 124801.444 122080.607  - 126 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  HOOD 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.059 1.118 1.199 1.139 1.161 1.160 1. 178 1,225 1.242 1.353 1.361 1.383  16572.000 19444.759 21723.614 24011.676 26847.234 33390.181 32601.724 37347.199 40649.796 43935.588 44562.454 50756.796 53779.465  NON-FEBBOUS 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.064 1.088 1.223 1.200 1. 190 1.202 1.256 1.345 1.289 1.289 1.321 1.363  21757.000 26210.526 32286.765 32228.945 26620.833 36546.218 34094.842 33139.331 36037.175 37155.159 36031.808 37403.482 35157.740  CHEMICALS 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.005 1,019 1. 195 1, 108 1.113 1.092 1,109 1.120 1. 106 1. 125 1. 104 1.112  13056.000 14743.284 16512.267 18106.276 21264,440 25887.691 28784.799 30730.388 35113.393 39403.255 42457.778 48568.841 - 47978.417  IRON 5 1.000 1.065 1.168 1.234 1.179 1.225, 1.236 1.298 1.403 1.477 1.513 1.519 1.532  99190.000 106359.624 101661.815 145219.611 203661.578 221869. 388 209506.472 202302.773 224271.561 217345.972 198483.146 204371.955 1896 37.728  NON-METALLIC 5 1,000 1.009 1.034 1.084 1.011 1.050 1.038 1.016 1-014 1,073 1.060 1,027 .986  13921.000 14383.548 15473.888 17202.030 16354.105 20366.667 20108.863 24536.417 29092.702 27429.637 30329.245 32673.807 34708.925  MISCELLANEOUS 5 1.000 .994 1,196 1.577 1.214 1.117 1.062 1.158 1.153 1.111 1.063 1.135 1.219  38314.000 49421.529 42423.913 59362.080 127460.461 158630.260 158308.851 185767.703 156753.686 167502.250 179937.912 161901.322 189198.523  - 127 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) 2. SUBPERIOD 1960-1968 YEAR  PRICE  QUANTITY  FRESH FRUITS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.433 1.547 1.649 1.916 1.873 1.759 1.697 1.673  64914.166 63329.670 60335.355 53576.722 61129.738 67785.105 71630.524 77245.666  SUGAR , 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .737 .690 .676 1.532 1.314 .589 .522 .565  RAW  68761.194 76418.841 84210.059 82725.196 77525.875 93606.112 85963.602 84203.540  PRICE  VEGETABLES .947 .944 1.313 1.066 1.078 1.313 1.369 1.216  1.345 1.322 1.281 1.296 1.704 1.625 1.581 1.468  35177.695 39473.525 43446.526 45452.932 43992.371 44387.077 41035.421 47461.172  INDIAN CORN 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .661 .684 .719 .795 .801 .819 .865 1.197  26639.939 4 0062.865 60504.868 40586.164 37483.146 33930.403 36478.613 35212.197  52545.935 50850.636 46391.470 51106.942 55756.030 51513.328 54712.199 63045.230  COCOA BEANS 12767.181 13254.237 13589.831 12610.675 14779.279 19267.748 13929.054 14708.571  .713 .590 .590 .637 .666 .493 .592 .700  COFFEE 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  QUANTITY  TEA 1.072 1.056 1.070 1.098 1. 148 1.130 1.036 1.012  2190 3.918 22565.341 20776.636 22653.005 22097.561 22079.646 21697.876 22844.862  LIVE ANIMALS .571 .623 .696 .696 .629 .671 .757 .757  13416.813 11709.470 11304.598 13897.989 27224.165 16096.870 17054.161 28923.382  ^ 128 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  EES. SECTION 12 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.006 1,056 1.077 1.081 1.074 1.081 1.090 1.005  281933.400 295047.348 287664.810 335365.402 336059.590 353856.614 388306.422 460586.070  SOYABEANS .622 .771 .786 .849 . 847 .854 .970 .873  FURS 1960 1961 1962 1963 196* 1965 1966 1967  .714 .727 .747 .998 < ,94tt .922 1.059 .807  HIDES 26701,681 24990.371 24566.265 21180,361 20943.856 22481,562 19233.239 21840.149  COTTON, RAH 1960 1981 ; 1962 196 3 1964 1965 1966 1967  .770 .900 .866 , .845 .836 .851 .790 . 793  56320.779 59141.250 62740.185 6 0618.935 71843.301 75266.745 57751.899 74871.375  WOOL, TOPS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .873 .896 -963 1.090 1. 164 1.007 1.015 .978  51774.920 39249.027 47506.361 48402.827 62454.545 54247.073 54059.794 55054.983  15150.057 16529.018 18470.405 22691.743 21382.302 23604.767 .21154.680 19385.481  .591 .649 .667 .483 .461 .556 .834 .627  6245.347 10468.413 9361.319 9134.576 10336.226 9875.899 12360.911 11834.131  WOOL, RAW 1.133 1.054 1. 119 1.243 1.549 1.238 1.205 1.096  9862.312 11346.300 10862.377 9428.801 10947.063 11240.711 11317.842 9899.635  SYNTHETICS 1,032 1.043 1.064 1.064 1.089 1. 100 1.118 1.102  5354.651 6446.788 7806.391 6582.707 11187.328 20809.091 16147.585 18647.005  - 129 TABLE A . I l l  (CONTINUED)  IBON OBE 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  2.062 2.143 2.123 2.165 2. 111 2.117 2. 136 2.141  32477.207 27613.626 32474.329 39868.360 44872.099 45659.424 36036.985 22425.969  COAL, ANTH. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.029 1.089 1.141 1.225 1.281 1.218 1. 157 1. 174  12833.819 10046.832 8883.436 8204.082 6227.166 6317.734 5831.461 5183.986  PETROLEUM 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .878 .862 .894 .894 .878 .854 .807 .819  318987.472 337784.223 341049.217 374453.020 365190.205 365642.857 370509.294 433963.370  RES. SECTION 3 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .961 .969 .981 .988 .994 .985 .993 .988  125640.999 133197.110 142658.512 148775.304 175526.157 185386.802 224599.194 23 9681. 174  BAUXITE*ALUM. 1.117 1.231 1.445 1. 145 1. 152 1. 186 1.205 1.231  40514.772 47221.771 43098.270 58645.415 61131-944 58913. 153 63587.552 60590.577  COAL, BITUM. 1.020 1.055 1.077 1.079 1,077 1.462 1.669 1.759  61997.059 56848.341 59119.777 63269.694 72610.956 80861.149 80310.965 79056.282  RUBBER 1.849 1.344 1.371 1.323 1.242 1.113 1. 172 .989  14861.547 13622.024 16100.656 16204.082 18276. 167 19576.819 21244.027 19677.452  VEGET. OILS .605 .711 .743 .722 .647 .728 .691 .633  33540.496 38151.899 33188.425 34199.446 36282.844 40989.011 51729.378 45211.690  - 130 TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  COTTON, FA BR. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .675 .726 .770 .747 .748 .644 .628 .601  108862.222 102243.802 89992.208 86950.469 100025.401 108959.627 128609.873 125420.965  WORSTEDS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .949 .983 .969 .949 1.083 1. 128 1. 134 1.160  22782.929 24596.134 27589.267 24417.281 24117.267 23945.035 21708.113 22474.138  ROLLING MILL 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.641 1.654 1.741 1.780 1.787 1.708 1.683 1.696  82119.439 67659.613 64036.186 76803.933 119578.623 167900.468 123428.996 119508.255  GLASS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.480 1.527 1.609 1.634 1.711 1.696 1. 676 1.748  JOTE, FA BR. .623 .808 .788 .801 .923 1.055 1.150 1.036  20158.909 19818.069 24958.122 26590.512 21100.758 20475.829 21952.174 23637.066  PAPERBOARD 1. 177 1.207 1.282 1.284 1.283 1.286 1.318 1.619  37818.182 39753.107 38562.402 38326.324 42097.428 45360.031 47067.527 39862.878  TIN, BLOCKS . 998 1. 149 1.243 1.269 1.651 1.979 1.808 1.662  8274.549 7739.774 4991.150 9208.038 10640.824 10956.038 9338.496 9989.170  GASOLINE 13612.838 14890.635 18550.031 17892.289 20146.698 20973.467 21986.277 18418.764  .986 1.034 .939 1. 184 .687 .762 1.082 1.136  15000.000 9925.532 8495.208 8353.885 13577.875 12633.858 9973.198 15235.035  - 131 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  FERTILIZERS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.019 1.075 1. 169 1. 158 1.175 1.217 1.219 1.219  14187.439 15381.395 13230.111 11575.130 13235.745 12749.384 13141.099 11347.006  RES. SECTION 4 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.340 1.374 1.422 1.433 1.480 1.498 1.474 1.472  716311.940 740469.432 786130.098 820221.912 859200.000 986184.913 1119694.030 1178651.495  MACHINERY 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.465 1.535 1.630 1.647 1.667 1.686 1.735 1.781  381155.631 360715.961 389156.442 418285.367 528133.773 603626.335 669207.493 645581.134  ELECTRIC 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.484 1.522 1.577 1.567 1.557 1.549 1.568 1.615  157024. 259 161544. 021 189440.076 179148. 692 203793. 192 238100. 065 300562. 500 338734. 365  CHEMICALS, IND. 1.165 1. 198 1. 195 1. 192 1.188 1. 180 1.231 1.252  8707.296 9106.845 8478.661 9545.302 44500.000 51688.983 53635.256 58719.649  FARM MACHINERY 1.383 1.476 1. 586 1. 625 1.651 1.680 1. 728 1. 785  153472.885 144608.401 147754.098 184488.000 200191.399 210938.690 239344.329 234421.289  AUTOMOBILES 1.340 1.394 1.467 1.473 1.479 1.483 1.481 1.498  434628.358 378868.723 425743.695 453925.322 552956.051 758449.764 1067288.994 1447505.340  RES. SECTION 5 1.375 1. 398 1.424 1.430 1.443 1. 457 1.471 1. 490  829308.364 962888.412 954095.506 863167.832 939126.126 1105415.237 1262276.683 1521024.161  - 132 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD 1968-1972 YE AB  PRICE  QUANTITY  FRESH FRUITS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .902 1.000 .922 1.008 1.037 1. 139  143272.727 141293.000 161867.679 151630.952 160121.504 158932.397  PRICE FRESH 917 000 031 996 181 1.160  RAH SUGAR 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .992 1.000 1.376 1.665 2.000 2.661  47958.669 46411.000 51080.669 51216.216 48505.000 49051.484  1.003 1.000 .992 1.256 1.130 1.194  69464.606 72037.000 70431.452 64878.981 72998.230 68293.132  .863 1.000 1.252 1.242 .951 .846  1. 130 000 089 159 186 077  37300.000 40037.000 34355.372 24746.333 11701.518 23256.267  LIVE ANIMALS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .951 1.000 .992 .985 .979 .948  23023.134 15554.000 18861.895 30916.751 40148.110 47159.283  83601.963 86590.000 87922.405 95935.743 85342.083 98662.931  11930.475 12156.000 9160.543 11602.254 11760.252 14355.792 TEA  1.091 1.000 .989 1.030 1.021 1.052  INDIAN CORN 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  VEGETABLES  COCOA  COFFEE 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  QUANTITY  21190.651 23124.000 21712.841 19574.757 22731.636 22865.970 HEAT  1.028 1.000 .957 1.002 1.111 1.131  48156.615 56591.000 112452.456 103915.170 79422.142 124832.891  RES. SECTION 12 .957 1.000 1.059 1.059 1.024 1.092  431958.203 424394.000 458860.246 474564.684 522171.875 591401.099  - 133 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINU ED)  HIDES  SOYA BEANS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.05 3 1.000 .972 1.021 1.123 1.218  1.099 1.000 1.236 1.082 1.131 1.986  45643.875 31071.000 42139.918 46000.979 41530.721 3210 8.374  WOOL, RAW  COTTON, HAW 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .891 1.000 .911 .846 .874 1.058  666 36.364 49918.000 51257.958 44455.083 52542.334 49482.987  1.189 1.000 1.078 .980 .851 1.094  WOOL, TOPS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1. 147 1.000 1.009 .957 .828 .997  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .958 1.000 1.015 1.010 1.009 .978  77856.994 83668.000 101420.690 98603.960 95913.776 78285.276  1.127 1.000 1.070 1. 169 1. 133 1.061  .958 1.000 .997 1.218 1.268 1.416  145156.576 154391.000 108042.126 118224.959 113192.429 120533.898  42603.372 48661.000 44398.131 46500.428 44947.043 50038.643 COPPER ORE  :  .895 1.000 1.036 .903 .793 .706  COAL* BITUM. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  9125.315 9837.000 8355.288 6387.755 5075.206 5534.735 IRON ORE  16529.207 17959.000 17128.840 13964.472 12873.188 14117.352  BAUXITE + ALUHIN.  6751.592 8549.000 8358.414 7818.854 8063.660 7821.249  30589.944 61345.000 9407.336 9578.073 23665.826 20104.816 PETROLEUM  .995 1.000 .971 .952 1.057 1.154  357202.010 372586.000 405203.913 436093.487 511933.775 589898.614  - 134 -  TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED)  RUBBER 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1. 143 1.000 1.410 1.236 .975 .880  17026.247 17043,000 18856.028 18891.586 18938.462 21771.591  RES. SECTION 3 .981 1.000 1.105 1.118 1.009 1.082  258600.408 271716.000 247267.873 280684.258 332497.522 368053.604  COTTON, PABR. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .968 1.000 1.003 .992 .997 1.076  77869.835 5674 3.000 61859.422 57442.540 73266.800 97508.364  WORSTEDS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.066 1.000 1.026 .976 .906 .922  24455.910 25111.000 24858,674 22086.066 15975.717 18138.829  VENEERS 1967 196 8 1969 1970 1971 1972  ,966 1,000 .967 .928 .848 .833  30652.174 33190.000 50354.705 40600.216 56323.113 89993.998  JUTE, FABR. 1.096 1.000 1. 133 1.154 1.218 1.383  COATED FABRICS .994 1.000 .935 1,065 1. 136 1. 150  1.054 1.000 1.048 1.157 1.057 1.071  15751.423 14892.000 17123.092 17414.002 17384.106 20116,713  26043.260 35123.000 43534.759 42461.033 44065.141 51373.913  ROLLING HILL 1,113 1.000 .997 1. 102 1. 125 1,183  TIN, BLOCKS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  22343.066 21346.000 22823.477 20866.551 17072.250 16181.490  182107.817 184309.000 277087.262 206261.343 249856.889 257818.259  GASOLINE .963 1.000 1.093 1.028 1.000 1.029  17971.963 16767.000 23560.842 19535.992 18322.000 12594.752  - 135 -  TABLE A. XII (CONTINUED)  HEAVY PUELS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.021 1.000 .979 .979 1.354 1.354  62002.938 54539.000 55990.807 58637,385 50180.207 44968.242  CHEHICALS, INORG. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.013 1.000 .920 .947 .927 .943  63993.090 67710.000 84490.217 148177.402 100310.680 101358.431  BES. SECTION 4 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .946 1.000 1.008 1.026 1.028 1.046  1664408.034 1717266.000 2001567.460 1955623.782 2155260,700 2405214.149  DRILLING MACHINERY 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .961 . 221206.035 1.000 231741.000 1.027 293267.770 1.042 257561.420 1.046 280972.275 1,046 354387.189 ELECTRICAL  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .986 1.000 1,013 1.010 1.005 .997  554823.529 592100.000 709233.959 699683.168 933017.910 1066104.313  CHEMICALS, IND. 1.034 1.000 .990 .980 .955 .929  71099.613 78554.000 95366.667 96560.204 107147.644 130617.869  CHEMICALS, 1.073 1.000 .967 .952 .835 .840  ORG.,  108110.904 129036.000 142742.503 140278.361 164523.353 199707.143  FARM MACHINERY .965 1.000 1.037 1.069 1.098 1.138  433618.653 353192.000 338594.986 287391.955 350504.554 431059.754  AUTOMOBILES .971 1.000 1.030 1,033 1.049 1.084  2233123.584 3000856.000 3465883.495 3147661.181 3918050.524 4551929.889  RES. SECTION 5 .975 1.000 1.030 1.059 1.077 1,089  3285668.718 3441665.000 3829335.922 3856386.213 3812202.414 4673321.396  - 136 -  TABLE A . X I I I DISAGGREGATED VALUE AND PRICE S E R I E S , EXPORTS 1948-1972 1. SUBPERIOD 1948-1960 YEAR  PRICE  QUANTITY  PRICE  WHEAT 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.156 1. 117 1.084 1.078 1.095 1.006 .994 .944 .916 .916 .939 .944  24 3023.000 376434.256 291507.610 406866.236 576337.662 518636.530 373100.398 340257.545 543518.008 415300.218 486984v716 470532.481 434801.907  WHISKY 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.088 1.215 1.211 1.189 1.189 1.204 1. 199 1. 192 1. 210 1.172 1.212 1.221  26957.000 30057.904 34306.173 44623.452 45629.941 53058.032 49132.890 50760.634 57600.671 55366.942 59962.457 64572.607 64881.245  QUANTITY BARLEY  1.000 1.028 1.091 .937 .993 .874 .811 .839 .818 .76 9 .734 .741 .755  WHEAT FLOWER 1.000 .996 .920 .933 .866 .907 .864 . 857 .824 .795 .781 .758 .766  OATS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .921 1.030 1.021 .947 .844 .907 1.037 .983 .839 .862 .911 1.012  26947.000 24778,210 21486.709 62776.948 146710.977 156440.503 110188.656 91133.492 116108.802 87804.941 106427.793 89487.179 68133.775  125151.000 98085.341 101998.913 122030.011 134012.702 112635.061 101885.417 86863.477 86831.311 76949.686 88857.875 85624.011 81251.958 TOBACCO  22560.000 20122.693 16088.350 52790.402 72059.134 71567.536 35796.031 11504.339 9477.111 26686.532 15099.768 8035.126 5717.391  1.000 1.077 .965 1.101 1. 130 1.081 1.110 1.110 1. 145 1. 157 1.234 1.250 1.367  8099.000 8000.929 10934.715 14907.357 19664.602 14507.863 16293.694 23916.216 15126.638 18932. 584 15036.467 20112.000 18527.432  - 137 -  TABLE A. XIII  (CONTINUED)  BEEP+VEAL MEAT 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.027 1.36 8 1.832 1.523 1.219 .819 1.050 .954 . 946 1.261 1.357 1.287  36594.000 29823.759 25013.889 27819.323 19910.046 7602.133 5540.904 2591.429 3819.706 14118.393 16007.137 6793.66 2 5487.179  CATTLE, SLAUGHTER 1.000 1.039 1.226 1.761 1.429 1.256 1.085 1. 112 .963 .939 1.109 1.269 1.150  MILK  CATTLE, DAIRY 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.039 1.230 1.667 1.516 1.073 .973 .990 1.022 1.075 1.289 1.494 1.440  26674.000 14728.585 14178.862 11248.350 1771.768 9300.093 7591.984 9561.616 10624.266 8735.814 10139.643 7742.303 7913.889  1.000 .917 .871 . 974 .929 .903 .966 .997 1.000 1.000 1.037 1.026 1.029  EGGS 194 8 194 9 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.040 .908 1.040 .870 .982 .914 .886 .936 .699 .727 .571 .673  47226.000 44413.859 50314.845 25164.111 1114.066 4074.045 8493.088 3526.978 654.206 44385.517 75834.986 31839.243 23106.957  15190.000 12223.555 10529.277 9252.567 14248.654 11763.012 7889.234 8069.208 8952.000 7571.000 10791.707 17236.842 16942.663 FISH 2  24318.000 14967.308 3959.251 3293.269 6025.287 3710.794 3411.379 1889.391 1873.932 4640.916 7030.261 8649.737 4114.413  1.000 .925 1.009 1.060 1.030 1.043 1.050 1.080 1.229 1.219 1.237 1.258 1.339  84465.000 100409.730 110669.970 109996.226 109343.689 105710.451 122670.476 115006.481 104848.657 106050.861 122132.579 113645.469 99732.636  - 138 -  TABLE A.XIII  (CONTINUED)  AGR.+ANIM. 12 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.006 1.015 1. 120 1.082 1,021 .977 .938 .976 1.026 .992 1,022 1.018  239698.000 149275.348 147968.473 120833.036 120767.098 160961,802 153577.277 157886.994 160351.434 124101.365 143745.968 148090.998 150318.271  CHEMICALS 12 1.000 1.022 • 983 1.137 1.119 1.108 1.088 1.101 1.119 1. 137 1.148 1. 167 1.159  MISCELLANEOUS 12 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.037 1, 120 1.323 1.297 1.236 1.235 1.252 1.266 1.289 1.288 1.289 1,339  9.000 4.822 18.750 6.047 • 0.0 + 0.0 + 0.0 .799 6.319 3.103 2.329 2.327 2,987  FISH 3 1.000 .925 1.009 1.060 1.030 1.043 1.050 1.080 1.229 1.219 1.237 1.258 1.339  LEATHER 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .941 1. 181 1.438 1. 138 1.281 1.209 1.222 1.284 1.263 1,322 1.538 1.331  493.000 103.718 190.234 1267.370 459.339 872.744 8048.713 12924.614 9211.796 11008.795 9016.551 10904.027 643.658  65.000 195.676 536.174 280.189 156.311 119.847 293.333 158.333 191.212 97.621 56.589 172.496 192.681 FURS  139.000 108.395 80.440 113.352 164.323 125.683 72.787 115.385 152.648 131,433 44,629 46.S14 45.079  1.000 .725 .917 1.084 .774 .741 .745 .871 .783 .725 .775 .811 .822  23262.000 31080.000 25945.474 26121.771 30370.801 28434.548 30868.456 32476.464 33068.966 35784.828 30092.903 29750.925 28176.399  - 139 -  TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED)  HIDES 194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  PULPWOOD  1,000 1.000 1. 152 1.531 .761 .735 .587 .539 .612 .598 .570 .934 .734  8411.000 9303.000 6993.056 4874.592 2549.277 3809.524 9056,218 9406.308 7341.503 11015,050 11601.754 8972. 163 14476.839  1. 000 1.031 1.049 1.222 1. 325 1.310 1.260 1.265 1.204 1. 267 1. 266 1. 218 1.224  43573.000 30375.364 33143.947 55730.769 48920.755 35006.870 36322.222 38462-451 41357.143 38247.040 27373.618 24414.614 25478.758  IRON ORE 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1. 144 1. 212 1. 192 1. 156 1.294 1. 283 1, 358 1.442 1.488 1. 473 1.452 1.567  COPPER 3  5301.000 12340.035 10981.848 15600.671 19319,204 23835.394 ; 30957.911 73500.736 100168.516 102339.382 73098.439 108687.328 99216.337  1.000 1.002 1.048 1.301 1. 445 1.428 1.386 1.709 1.961 1.34 1 1. 182 1. 391 1. 426  LEAD 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.018 .893 1.146 1.017 .713 .709 .761 .858 .713 .535 .527 .533  11020.000 15935.130 15090.649 11752.498 11047.059 22882.353 22163.059 23789.936 21663.947 22762.118 15165.821 14397.556 22171.108  ALUMINUM 3 1563.000 5068.762 6566.629 6253.927 7926.254 20840.112 20771.509 19862.024 15820.513 14774.194 20041.121 19518.027 18921,201  1.000 1.044 1.054 1.148 1.251 1.264 1.308 1.413 1.618 1.645 1.562 1.512 1.582  5142.000 1057.471 1274.194 1087.108 521.183 3011.076 2973.242 2945.506 1600.124 2035.258 2104.994 3227.513 5719.975  - 140 -  TABLE A.XIII  (CONTINUED)  NICKEL 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.297 1.545 1.860 1.902 2.000 2.047 2.205 2.248 2.482 2.467 2.368 2.298  ZINC 3  29341.000 32728.604 30893.851 32843.548 37492.114 35821.000 36309.233 36463.946 39085.409 40448.832 38019.457 39539.274 47301.567  1.000 1.036 1. 141 1.556 1.532 .912 .801 .926 1.067 .916 .746 .806 .911  SILVEH 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.000 1.074 1.222 1.117 1.117 1.109 •1.157 1. 183 1.187 1.174 1.217 1.222  PLATINUM 2434.000 3005.000 2554.004 1685.761 2533.572 4129.812 6276.826 4198.790 4962.806 4164.280 3640.545 5102.712 6755.319  1.000 1.045 .919 1.098 1.021 1.038 .971 .936 1. 183 1.037 .782 .771 .910  ASBESTOS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1. 160 1..257 1,429 1.543 1.566 1.542 1.545 1.636 1.658 1.704 1.713 1.706  5651.000 12757.722 15878.177 18152.314 22828.982 25524.123 23975.031 25323.974 25302.718 23406.114 29432.976 26743.176 18858.397  41399.000 31839.655 49922.037 56216.235 56066.105 53622.605 53544.747 61361.812 61060.513 64570.567 53254.108 64466.433 70406.213  16832.000 17268.900 23084.875 27649.362 29997.062 25327.553 28465.499 28114.316 30140.321 26828.351 19217.391 16282.750 17697.802 COAL  1.000 1.042 1.037 1.075 1.248 1.289 1.288 1.283 1.268 1.321 1.332 1.370 1.377  11556.000 3420.345 3083.896 3252.093 2567.308 1551.590 1332.298 3796.571 3714.511 2542.014 2183.183 2614.599 4930.283  - 141 TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED)  AGE.tANIM. 3 1.000 1.006 1.015 1.120 1.082 1.021 .977 .938 .976 1.026 .992 1.022 1,018  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  61444.000 59167.992 38813.793 35411.607 35010.166 35814.887 43506.653 66505.330 82461.066 107637.427 96210.685 87068.493 94990.177  TEXTILES 3 1.000 1.034 1. 128 1.398 1.200 1. 141 1.086 1.064 1.087 1. 124 1.080 1.078 1.105  WOOD 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 , 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .981 1.059 1.229 1.236 1.197 1.172 1.194 1.228 1.232 1.223 1.228 1.214  IRON 3 22786.000 19399.592 15050.99 2 17529.699 27430.421 17298.246 15327.645 16820.771 16678.339 17315.747 14183.974 15208.469 16259.473  NON-FERROUS 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1  ;  1.000 .892 1.175 1.348 1.393 1.364 1.362 1.475 ' 1.605 1.541 1.494 1.527 1.688  5915.000 5589.942 6394.504 5645.923 4577.500 5077.125 5193.370 6552.632 6238.270 7105.872 4595.370 5577.922 4677.828  9662.000 6902.466 5297.021 4316.024 9705.671 15462.610 13997.063 35334.237 48353.894 99513.952 192726.238 211666.012 162848.341  1.000 1.096 1.114 1.249 1.336 1.378 1.335 1.368 1.455 1. 535 1.568 1.612 1.608  187.000 920.620 1825.853 1293.835 3133.982 11521.771 11886.142 15304.094 20912.027 18644.951 7904.337 7928.660 8504.353  NON -METALLIC 3 1.000 1. 124 1.206 1.317 1.432 1.494 1.502 1.499 1.561 1.594 1.653 1.651 1.653  8312.000 6542.705 6741.294 8249.051 10006.285 13473.226 13932.756 38260.841 8301 1.531 110172.522 68726.558 77243.489 92943.739  - 142 -  TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED)  MISCELLANEOUS 3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.037 1.120 1,323 1.297 1.236 1.235 1.252 1.266 1.289 1.288 1.289 1.339  351.000 315.333 392.857 541,194 431.766 478.155 396.761 658.147 706,161 659.426 767.857 843.289 143.391  LEATHER 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .941 1.181 1.438 1. 138 1.281 1.209 1.222 1.284 1.263 1.322 1.538 1.331  FISH 4 1.000 • 925 1. 009 1. 060 1.030 1.043 1.050 1.080 1.229 1.219 1. 237 1. 258 1.339  NEWSPRINT 9102.000 4905.420 5029.636 4764.951 3750.439 5175.644 5738.627 6412.439 6769.470 7603.325 7863.843 7104.681 6665.665  1.000 1.041 1. 111 1. 185 1.253 1. 300 1.300 1.305 1.341 1.368 1.370 1.379 1.381  WOOD PULP 1948 1949 1950 1951 ffS2 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .911 .930 1.356 1.245 1.039 1.007 1.016 1.045 L049 1.056 1.054 1.016  498.000 744.865 506.442 538.679 524.272 721.956 740.952 842.593 678.600 770.304 1007.276 821.145 622.853  211564.000 187349.067 224253.763 269272.124 234428.112 239340.712 269531.281 292622.047 291422.010 278747.378 270311.553 295306.452 320001.969  383123.000 416793.468 437215.122 452634.599 472298.484 476179.231 488976.923 510250.575 528251.305 523019.006 503802.190 523764.322 548826.937 PLANKS  1.000 .936 1.036 1,166 1.136 1.077 1.038 1.074 1.067 1.004 .973 .995 .974  196023.000 171388.889 280740.347 267751.286 260518.486 261934.076 312836.224 358764.432 305946.579 280558.765 300116.136 324493.467 355544.148  - 143 TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED)  SHINGLES 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .819 1. 170 1. 115 .995 1.062 1. 104 1.225 1.300 1.170 1.131 1.253 1.131  22155.000 2026 3.736 27459.829 24443.946 19945.729 19557.439 21779.891 23541.224 18670.769 16368.376 17297.082 16823.623 18235.190  PLYWOOD 1.000 .936 1.105 1.254 1.254 1.228 1.105 1.167 1.096 .956 .930 .958 .844  PIG IRON 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .987 .973 1.246 1. 155 1. 114 1. 120 1.181 1.241 1. 297 1.340 1.248 1.216  29.000 555.218 8589.928 9874.799 16595.671 15245.961 8948.214 11238.781 11375.504 25503.470 13626.866 20209.135 19555.921  LEAD 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.018 .893 1. 146 1.017 .713 .709 .761 .858 .713 .535 .527 .533  32759.000 36075.639 36104.143 33266. 143 40919.371 32224.404 36393.512 29011.827 25002.331 26454.418 28742.056 28810.247 29939.962  11928. 000 5306. 624 6200. 905 8213.716 8236. 045 6529. 316 9486. 878 13944. 302 12471. 715 12345. 188 10416.129 15122.129 1856 3.981 COPPER 4  1.000 1.002 1.048 1.301 1.445 1.428 1.386 1.709 1.961 1.341 1.182 1.391 1.426  64187. 000 67950. 100 64099.237 51038. 432 58714. 879 59295. 518 69708. 514 72128. 145 77370. 219 87042. 506 99064. 298 99784. 328 126098. 177  ALUMINUM 4 1.000 1.044 1.054 1.148 1.251 1.264 1.308 1.413 •1.618 1.645 1.562 1.512 1.582  87596. 000 86137. 931 96644. 213 104185. 540 123463. 629 134155. 854 136470.183 146361. 642 143521. 632 137409. 119 140303.457 149341. 270 16 3783.186  - 144 TABLE A. XIII  (CONTINUED)  NICKEL 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.297 1.545 1.860 1.902 2.000 2.047 2.205 2.248 2.482 2.467 2.368 2.298  44461.000 38453.354 37261.489 40645.699 41888.538 45450.500 52676.600 61118.367 60073.399 59572.925 48149.980 56261.402 62031.767  ZINC 4 1. 000 1.036 1.141 1.556 1.532 .912 .801 .926 1.067 .916 .746 .806 .911  SILVER 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.000 1.074 1.222 1.117 1.117 1. 109 1.157 1.183 1. 187 1. 174 1.217 1.222  4026.000 4568.000 6218.808 11800.327 11296.329 10950.761 10813.345 12519.447 10837.701 9849.200 12163.543 11101.890 9259.411  FEETILIZESS 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 * 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.081 1. 112 1.203 1.281 1.246 1.223 1.204 1.163 1.128 1. 141 1. 125 1. 146  36374.000 36433.858 34958.633 29704.073 33015.613 34215.891 34621.423 46757*475 42313.844 43402.482 40732.691 43370.667 45678.883  36686. 000 41006. 757 35577.564 35619. 537 40019. 582 37601. 974 48923. 845 50871. 490 4406O. 918 47468. 341 44809.651 41851. 117 50883. 644  ABRASIVES 1.000 1.084 1.179 1.182 1.245 1.455 1.559 1.539 1.578 1.641 1.766 1.691 1.723  13381. 000 10577. 491 12525. 021 18085. 448 14217.671 19914.777 17461. 193 17506. 173 17990. 494 20664. 839 12863. 533 16402. 720 18419. 037  AGE. +ANIH. 4 1.000 1.006 1.015 1. 120 1.082 1.021 .977 .938 .976 1.026 .992 1.022 1.018  20351.000 18724. 652 10379. 310 13514. 286 10082. 255 10257. 591 9423.746 '15 2 29 •211 19140. 369 17385. 965 14575. 605 16666. 341 15054. 028  -  1A5 -  TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED)  TEXTILES 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.034 1.128 1.398 1.200 1. 141 1.086 1.064 1.087 1. 124 1.080 1. 078 1. 105  22585.000 14340.426 15340,426 16792.561 15260.833 12918,493 11009.208 11195.489 10526.219 13887.011 11793.519 14222.635 25919.457 IRON 4  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.096 1.114 1.249 1.336 1. 378 1.335 1. 368 1.455 1.535 1.568 1.612 1.608  61654.000 47822.080 43585.278 47820,657 50848.054 40616.110 14198.502 47445.175 44381,443 51579.805 36500.638 60403.226 81036.070  NON-METALLIC 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1. 124 1.206 1.317 1.432 1.494 1.502 1.499 1.561 1.594 1.653 1.651 1.653  19390.000 12058.719 11645.108 10923.311 14694.134 7854.083 8366.178 14376.251 18401,666 22927.227 11862.674 14392.489 15788.264  WOOD 4 1.000 .981 1.059 1.229 1.236 1.197 1,172 1. 194 1.228 1.232 1.223 1,228 1.214  53442. 000 33586. 137 31237. 016 40559. 805 41330. 906 37559. 733 36840. 444 44530. 988 48881. 922 47622. 565 48026. 165 55775. 244 55470. 346  NON-FERROUS 4 1.000 .892 1.175 1,348 1.393 1.364 1.362 1.475 1.605 1.541 1.494 1.527 1.688  26040. 000 18628. 924 17466. 383 22216. 617 42380. 474 2239 3• 695 20937. 592 24147. 797 27257. 944 24689. 163 16280. 455 18455. 141 19881. 517  CHEMICALS 4 1,000 1.022 .983 1,137 1,119 1.108 1.088 1. 101 1.119 1.137 1.148 1.167 1.159  38848.000 26381. 605 58104. 781 78043. 975 68558.534 79914.260 96284. 007 98643. 052 105646. 113 111637. 643 113691.638 114111. 397 154019. 845  - 146 -  TABLE A . X T I I  (CONTINUED)  MISCELLANEOUS 4 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.037 1. 120 1.323 1.297 1.236 1.235 1.252 1.266 1.289 1.288 1.289 1.339  4376.000 4671.167 5448.214 6000.000 7074.788 6751.618 6009.717 8479.233 12002.370 14869.666 9767.081 10826.222 11595.220  MACHINERY 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.069 1. 136 1.208 1.144 1.161 1.183 1.230 1.317 1.368 1.418 1.428 1.465  40539.000 29784.846 22573.944 33336.921 41414.336 33262.705 32267.117 29096.748 35785.877 41796.053 33061.354 33895.658 45784.300  AGR.+AHIM. 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.006 1.015 1.120 1.082 1.021 .977 .938 .976 1.026 .992 1.022 1.018  28449.000 15472.167 13933.005 24391.071 16566.543 9704.212 12319.345 10976.546 9840.164 9505.848 8724.798 . 11948.141 9157.171  FARM 1. 000 •1.110 1. 158 1. 312 1. 368 1. 381 1. 387 1. 394 1. 468 1. 569 1. 659 1. 743 1. 767  MACHINERY 73760.000 83357.658 75829.879 81126.524 77052.632 53813.179 55350.397 54526.542 45964.578 44407.903 58827.004 65803.213 48345.218  AUTOMOBILES 1. 000 1. 178 1. 168 1. 246 1. 256 1. 265 1. 258 1. 273 1. 360 1. 444 1. 523 1. 549 1. 565  55086.000 32943.973 34441.781 63504.013 88387.739 59539.921 21544.515 31247.447 31241.176 27753.463 23636.244 22790.833 33133.546 TEXTILES 5  1. 000 1. 034 1. 128 1. 398 1. 200 1. 14 1 1. 086 1. 064 1. 087 1. 124 1. 080 1. 078 1. 105  17054.000 4457.447 4482.270 3926.323 3242.500 3330.412 3105.893 3695.489 3997.240 3173.488 2740.741 3387.755 4895.023  - 147 -  TABLE A.XIII  (CONTINUED)  WOOD .5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 .981 1.059 1.229 1.236 1.197 1.172 1,194 1.228 1.232 1.223 1.228 1.214  9080.000 5588.175 4748.820 6772.172 5826.861 4405.180 4357,509 4528.476 5577.362 5788.961 5175.797 5777.687 6597.199  NON-FEBBOUS 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 19581959 1960  1.000 .892 1. 175 1.348 1.393 1.364 1.362 1.475 1.605 1.541 1.494 1.527 1.688  18548.000 14822.870 9842.553 14148.368 25303.661 28397.361 17651.248 14722.034 14209.969 17316.677 17565.596 22259.987 29303.318  CHEMICALS 5 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1.000 1.022 .983 1.137 1.119 1.108 1.088 1,101 1,119 1-137 1. 148 1. 167 1..159  4125.000 4153.620 4422.177 5082.674 4504.915 5180.505 4997.243 3973.660 4572.833 6065.084 8454.704 6035.990 5249.353  IBQH 5 1.000 1.096 1.114 1.249 1.336 1.378 1.335 1.368 1.455 1.535 1.568 1.612 1.608  44909.000 56206.204 22594.255 19391.513 22098.802 36656.749 55492.135 35290.205 33122.337 38274.919 35968.750 44514.268 48282.338  NON-METALLIC 5 1.000 1. 124 1.206 1.317 1.432 1.494 1.502 1.499 1.561 1.594 1.653 1.651 1.653  877,000 745.552 633,499 814.730 480.447 388.889 383.489 453.636 512.492 501.255 464,005 723.198 724.138  MISCELLANEOUS 5 1.000 1.037 1.120 1.323 1.297 1.236 1.235 1.252 1.266 1,289 1,288 1.289 1.339  107826.000 82468.660 25064.286 12587.302 44181.187 65558.252 40391.093 22862.620 43848.341 59020.171 111445.652 42860.357 34989.544  - 148 -  TABLE A.XIII YEAR  (CONTINUED) 2. SUBPERIOD 1960-1968 PRICE  QUANTITY  WHEAT 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .944 1.011 1.134 1.117 1.145 1.073 1.106 1.184  434801.907 655975.272 530439.153 704390.331 893900.437 783014.911 959014.467 626586.149  WHISKY 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.221 1.214 1.250 1.215 1.200 1. 174 1.204 1.171  1.012 1.062 .935 .924 .921 .978 .982 .917  BARLEY .755 .727 .979 .867 .853 . 916 .958 .930  64881.245 66224.876 67908.000 74176.955 85683.333 99644.804 105903.654 120848.847  .766 .787 .854 .874 .870 .948 .944 .957  1.287 1.166 1.360 1.415 1.291 1.255 1.494 1.633  68133.775 67353.508 30568.948 28286.044 60086.753 47684.498 46927.975 78074.194  81251.958 77606.099 66795.082 71643.021 115235.632 69941.983 87750.000 63386.625  TOBACCO 5717.391 2592.279 7484.492 24165.584 13849.077 19107.362 13610.998 7284.624  1. 367 1.417 1.433 1.557 1.550 1.667 1.920 2.187  * BEEF 1960 196 1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  QUANTITY  WHEAT PLOWER  OATS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  PRICE  18716.167 19777.699 24551.291 18973.025 24751.613 21213.557 20834.896 22805.213  MILK 5487.179 8734.134 6032.353 5318.728 9418.280 23458.964 17637.216 8799.755  1.029 1.006 1.054 1.006 1.000 1.097 1.146 1.069  16942.663 16109.344 12061.670 13583.499 33942.000 21139.471 12663.176 18442.470  - 149 -  TABLE A.XIII  (CONTINUED)  EGGS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  FISH  . 673 .731 .743 .770 .735 1.033 1.045 .941  4114.413 2768.810 452.221 496.104 808.163 137.464 127.273 44.633  CHEESE 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1. 135 1.135 1.074 1. 151 1-192 1.209 1.300 1.314  1.034 1.068 1.027 1-023 1.020 1,0 35 1.091 1.042  5721.586 5589.427 8278.399 7855.778 9364.094 9657.568 10902.308 8528.919  144194.391 134013.109 175335.930 208671.554 228120.588 239176.812 239538.038 256720.729  HIDES 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .734 .777 .828 .630 .601 .684 .955 .718  96638.536 98267.585 101715.080 109473.973 117813.527 113265.553 113799.325 117203-794  LIVE ANIHALS  RES. SECTION 12 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.339 1.379 1.439 1.460 1.582 1.736 1. 779 1.845  1.251 1. 175 1.306 1,280 1.281 1. 155 1.314 1.473  32804.157 56937.021 52108.729 32789.844 26943.013 6 8513.420 59362.253 28725.730  FURS .822 .663 .699 -786 .763 .736 .845 .647  28176.399 36122.172 36546.495 41165.394 39748.362 41175.272 38563.314 46669.243  PULPWOOD 14476.839 13637.066 11099.034 12625.397 15898.502 22302.632 28698.429 26479.109  1.224 1.215 1. 182 1. 182 1.128 1.197 1,184 1.231  25478.758 27827.984 30230.118 30444.162 32645.390 34101.086 34606.419 31128.351  150 ^  TABLE A. XIII  (CONTINUED)  IRON ORE 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.567 1.656 1.700 1.869 1.852 1.854 1.952 1.985  99216.337 86090.580 129718.824 14 4970.037 192228.402 194616.505 189041.496 192978.841  PLATINUM • 910 • 962  1.016 • 999 1.089 1. 172 1.232 1. 338  ASBESTOS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.738 1.747 1.753 1.728 1.705 1.751 1.779 1.826  69109.896 75180.882 77374.786 80698.495 91323.167 90609.366 102576.728 94412.377  RES. SECTION 3 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.637 1.666 1.751 1.771 1.80 4 1.863 1. 943 2.000  458811.851 491184.874 515290.120 511633.540 551092.018 598223.833 645288.729 709384.000  NEWSPRINT 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.381 1.375 1.381 1.381 1.381 1.366 1.397 1.445  548826.937 553682.182 545300.507 550318.610 604377.987 636592.972 693073.729 661080.277  17658. 242 27363. 825 23724. 409 23264. 264 19733.701 26085. 324 22560. 065 23193. 572  COAL 1.377 1.417 1.608 1.745 1.792 1.787 1.691 1.598  4930.283 6027.523 5342.040 5682.521 6732.701 7153.330 8027.794 9706.508  LEATHER 1.373 1.373 1.351 1.242 1.225 .796 .846 .771  6476.329 7981.792 8350.111 7623.188 7903.673 10982.412 11698.582 12019.455  WOOD PULP 1.016 .978 . 978 .958 .983 .999 .982 .987  320001.969 354459.100 378222.904 423060.543 468824.008 493994.995 529600.815 550590.679  - 151 -  TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED)  LUBBER 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .974 .929 .926 .945 .964 .982 1.023 1.040  SHINGLES  355544.148 381987.083 428452.484 478819.048 495172.199 498914.460 467305.963 489822.115  PLYWOOD 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .844 .813 .792 .899 .781 . 792 .771 .729  18563.981 19725.707 29416.667 31632.925 48463.508 47361.111 53849.546 65183.813  ROLLING HILL 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.640 1.64 0 1.636 1.629 1.629 1.686 1.702 1.683  40875.000 29050.610 35603.912 45529.159 52950.890 55921.708 55881.904 64490.196  ALUMINUM 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.582 1.638 1.663 1.660 1.756 1.750 1.744 1.783  164558.786 147634.310 171108.839 182367.470 181057.517 206265,714 213460.436 223729.669  1. 131 1.063 1. 131 1.24 4 1. 316 1.256 1.236 1. 239  18235.190 19233.302 20903.625 24370.579 24275.076 23200.637 21286.408 21292.978  PIG IRON 1. 216 1. 222 1.277 1.271 1.232 1.209 1.314 1.243  19555.921 23787.234 19552.858 19135.327 23856.331 24385.443 20590.563 20419.952  COPPER 1. 426 1.400 1. 500 1.458 1. 528 1.709 2. 318 2. 297  126098.177 123874.286 102792.000 105821.674 113829.188 103056.758 96664.366 132079.234  NICKEL 2.298 2 •484 2. 715 2. 485 2. 401 2. 386 2. 472 2.731  62031.767 77152.576 70554.696 70570.624 82109.538 87118.189 85935.680 83960.820  •  TABLE A. XIII  - 152 -  (CONTINUED)  ZINC 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  .911 .813 .781 .824 1.025 1.062 1.031 .949  ABEASIYES 50883.644 51706.027 52209.987 50564.320 60220^488 66839.925 64805.044 75348.788  FEHTILIZEBS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1. 146 1,145 1.163 1.148 1. 164 1. 199 1.237 1.263  45678.883 46531.004 51466.036 64876.307 73973.368 93212.677 112783.347 122424.386  EES. SECTION 4 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.079 1.056 1.060 1.110 1. 149 1. 190 1.196 1.187  401476.367 419454.545 441934.906 477754.955 565616.188 587523.529 648474.916 670296.546  MACHINERY 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1,465 1.536 1.631 1.647 •1.667 1.686 1.735 1.781  37004.096 42508.464 52126.303 65019.429 81361,728 95177.936 120845.533 136753.509  1.723 1.836 1.780 1.720 1.766 1.805 1. 800 1,825  18821.242 16015.251 16905.056 16061,628 16865.232 18972.853 21646.111 18914.521  ELECTRICITY 1..17.3 1.353 1,64 0 1,640 1.713 1.713 1.713 1.727  13236.147 11673.319 10065.854 9730.488 10509.632 9043.783 9450.088 9430.805  FASH MACHINERY 1.767 1. 826 •1.877 1. 918 1. 959 1.996 2. 056 2. 118  50705. 150 46849. 398 48736. 281 59730.970 71808. 065 81127. 756 88763. 132 91736. 544  AUTOMOBILES 1.565 1.607 1.685 1.663 1.66 9 1.64 3 •1.664 1. 622  43087. 540 28943. 995 33873. 591 52702. 946 106282. 804 216661. 595 597112. 981 1072232. 429  - 153 -  TABLE A.XIII  (CONTINUED)  CONS. GOODS 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.222 1.227 1.234 1.248 1.262 1.277 1.311 1.368  5574.468 7094.540 10669.368 16892.628 22726.624 25252.937 37577.422 39742.690  RES..SECTION 5 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1.618 1.667 1.675 1.681 1.695 1.720 1.74 3 1* 768  115760. 816 176600. 480 239041. 194 260390.244 364823. 009 338401. 744 387044. 177 491134. 050  RUBBER 1. 802 1.631 1.566 1.660 1.709 1.823 1.791 2.049  3249.723 3151.441 4872.286 6653.012 4834.406 4097.641 5405.918 7917.521  - 154 TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD 1968-1972 YEAR  QUANTITY  PRICE  WHEAT 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.050 1.000 .955 . 866 . 878 . 899  706550.476 684469.000 494978.010 793801.386 948930.524 1031266.963  WHISKY 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.002 1.000 .980 .916 .893 .867  141231.537 158253.000 192932.653 199934.498 207123.180 241738.178  BARLEY 1.047 1.000 .795 .769 .830 .830  .966 1.000 .983 .957 .940 .887  51630.435 57467,000 63942.014 58981.191 61148.936 66710.259 FISH  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  • 950 1. 000 1.079 1. 187 1. 271 1.501  227622. 105 234533. 000 237417. 053 207313. 395 209397. 325 207584. 277  LIVE ANIMALS 1967 196 8 1969 1970 1971 1972  • 925 1. 000 1. 164 1. 195 1. 196 1. 427  45743. 784 59365. 000 46738. 832 57044. 351 56305. 184 60337. 071  69349.570 40043.000 38272.956 173573.472 235256.627 261392.771  WHEAT FLOWER .959 1.000 1.002 .975 .883 .850  TOBACCO 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  QUANTITY  PRICE  63254.432 57940.000 51992.016 59164.103 58028.313 51381.176 BEEF  1.009 1.000 1.128 1. 182 1. 190 1.322  14248.761 23735.000 23378.546 41002.538 39506.723 29881.241  CHEESE 1.090 1.000 .991 1.069 1.524 1.910  10281. 651 16236. 000 14292. 634 15142. 189 12408. 136 7810. 995  RES. SECTION 1 2 1.071 1.000 .982 .949 .971 1. 168  274447. 246 281081. 000 311550. 916 391329. 821 402512. 873 382258. 562  - 155 -  TABLE A,XIII  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  (CONTINUED)  .946 1.000 1.075 .853 .827 1.079  31918.605 33223.000 30576.744 32375.147 27465.538 28104.727,  PULPWOOD 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .978 1.000 .990 1.039 1.070 1.096  39180.982 36595.000 32797.980 36142.445 33605.607 24230.839 NICKEL  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .924 1.000 1.066 1.366 1.368 1.359  220758.658 261030.000 211361.163 272029.283 297788.743 282423.841  ASBESTOS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .976 1,000 1.037 1.081 1.092 1.110  176636.270 192896.000 208558.341 210220.167 207682.234 211854.955  NATURAL GAS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .953 1.000 1.023 1,043 1.082 1.187  129762.854 153752.000 172226.784 197495.686 231718.115 25 8502.949  1.193 1.000 1.313 1.227 1.096 2.185  15936.295 16133.000 13912.414 13132.029 12876.825 16378.947  IRON ORE 1.007 1.000 .960 .992 .986 .962  380400.199 443202.000 336770.833 479579.637 419200.811 366611.227  PLATINUM .959 1.000 1.073 1.128 1.024 1.004  32359.750 40131.000 28773.532 40565.603 38078.125 35912.351  PETROLEUM .993 1.000 .996 1.007 1.090 1.105  400679.758 446413.000 527891.566 644563.059 722382.569 911769.231  RES. SECTION 3 .969 1.000 1.037 1.055 .935 .935  731433.437 844203.000 850518.804 973770.616 1140450.267 1224448.128  - 156 -  TABLE &.XIII  (CONTINUED)  NEWSPRINT 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971. 1972  .967 1.000 1.033 1.036 1.050 1.079  987860.393 989831.000 1089835.431 1071807.915 1032836.190 1073169.601 LUMBER  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .853 1.000 1.124 1.000 1.091 1.326  597203.986 656301.000 623310.498 663775.000 760298.808 885552.036  ROLLING MILL 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .982 1.000 1.087 1.054 1.145 1.096  110526.477 137410.000 98168.353 188703.036 152691.703 166109.489  ALTJMINOM 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.009 1.000 1.054 1.083 .991 .948  395351.833 445128.000 450427.894 423487.535 453590.313 404832.278 ZINC  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.015 1.000 1.025 1.060 1.056 1.292  70449.261 75411.000 72746.341 82906.604 73997.159 97070.433  WOOD PULP 1.016 1.000 1.035 1.126 1.115 1.068  534875.000 627874.000 728007.729 697359.680 715822.422 767909.176  PIG IRON 1.005 1.000 .976 1.031 1.123 1.103  25255.721 26967.000 36695.697 34258.002 29178.094 34740.707  COPPER .955 1.000 1.045 1.271 .967 .942  317681.675 335675.000 243683.254 332437.451 361348.501 389226.115  NICKEL .922 1.000 1.117 1.477 1.339 1.342  248695.228 245434.000 202443.151 293983.751 238613.891 232228.763  ABRASIVES .940 1.000 1.054 1.099 1.096 1.094  36722.340 38465.000 43278.937 41653.321 34893.248 41335.466  - 157 -  TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED)  CHEMICALS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1.069 1.000 .988 .968 1.032 1,011  112638.915 132764.000 154488.866 191172.521 174042.636 189661.721  EES. SECTION 4 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .882 1.000 .983 .955 .958 1.028  1035171.202 1129517,00 0 1214079.349 1470531.937 1476399.791 1656538.911  MACHINERY 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .973 1.000 1.029 1.068 1 .097 1.115  250316.547 295347.000 358531.584 386232.210 389439.380 405018.834  CONS. GOODS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .972 1.000 1,030 1.058 1,079 1.107  55934.156 73557.000 96584.466 101853.497 106757.183 110512.195  RES. SECTION 5 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  .993 1.000 1.025 1.056 1.079 1.098  874436.052 1056379.000 112 9329.756 1276141.098 1192852.641 1459565.574  ELECTRICITY 1.014 1.000 1. 127 1,716 2.014 1.762  16062. 130 14321. 000 16412. 600 20043. 124 23976. 167 38562. 997  FARM MACHINERY .970 1.000 1.034 1.064 1. 103 1. 148  200307. 216 168549. 000 174564. 797 154498. 120 158615. 594 189059. 233  AUTOMOBILES .979 1.000 1,012 1.033 1.052 1,071  1776466. 803 2690832. 000 3519307. 312 3387039. 690 3964847. 909 4405584. 500  RUBBER * 993 1. 000 1.041 1. 045 1. 019 1. 012  16347. 432 11800. 000 9787. 704 19033. 493 17377. 821 23922. 925  - 158 -  TABLE A.XIV IHPOBT D0TIES, DISAGGBEGATED SEBIES, 1948-1972 1. SUBPERIOD 1948-1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  BANANAS  CITRUS  D FBOTTS  2277000 2079000 1831000 1612000 1733000 1794000 1650000 1574000 1728000 1590000 1617000 1694000 1893000  94000 126000 152000 165000 216000 217000 18000 30000 9000 7000 9000 10000 7000  1011000 956000 675000 959000 882000 854000 774000 776000 739000 822000 594 000 491000 675000  VEGETABLES  SOGAH  646000 1716000 2410000 2926000 3711000 3796000 4524000 4389000 4770000 4899000 5 241000 5439000 5365000  NOTS 371000 539000 556000 387000 386000 388000 349000 321000 366000 387000 384000 373000 409000  COCOA  COFFEE  5392000 5391000 4309000 4062000 7913000 6597000 5884000 6348000 6479000 6 071000 8898000 6550000 5330000  495000 540000 562000 305000 272000 296000 269000 229000 234000 284000 221000 247000 264000  1619000 1932000 1462000 1578000 1728000 1889000 1489000 1717000 1697000 1719000 1816000 1953000 1805000  TEA  WHISKY  CHEM.IND.2  AG.+AN.2  8000 35000 18000 18000 19000 18000 30000 22000 24000 31000 28000 47000 38000  6256000 7395000 5138000 7683000 11713000 11123000 8722000 9643000 8803000 7771000 12740000 12567000 12401000  0 1000 1000 1000 1000 2000 3000 0 1000 1000 2000 2000 0  18962000 20257000 20261000 26036000 23904000 30303000 30341000 34251000 37848000 41478000 42985000 45184000 44238000  - 159 -  TABLE A.XIV  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  (CONTINUED)  MISC.2  SOYABEANS  N.METAL.2  CHEM.2  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  50000 53000 53000 68000 63000 80000 80000 90000 99000 109000 113000 119000 116000  20000 21000 21000 27000 25000 32000 32000 36000 40000 44000 45000 47000 46000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  FOES  COTTON R.  WOOL S.  WOOL T.  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  90000 92000 148000 19000 4000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  46000 51000 33000 53000 11000 43000 28000 3000 1000 1000 0 3000 0  SISAL  SYNTH.3  PAPERBD.3  IRON 0 .  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  31000 67000 164000 684000 213000 273000 181000 350000 463000 677000 306000 453000 583000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  - 160 -  TABLE A.XIV  {CONTINUED)  COAL ANTH.  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  60000 8000 3000 1000 0 1000 2000 8000 16000 3000 2000 38000 0 AG.+AN.3  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  816000 872000 872000 1121000 1029000 1304000 1306000 1474000 1629000 1785000 1850000 1945000 1904000 N-FEfifl. 3  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 ,1955 ,1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  COAL BIT.  12591000 8718000 8477000 8982000 7884000 7298000 5846000 5768000 7083000 5840000 4166000 3624000 3575000 TEXTILES 3  20000 21000 21000 27000 25000 32000 32000 36000 40000 44000 45000 47000 46000 N.METAL.3  358000 383000 383000 492000 452000 573000 573000 647000 715000 784000 812000 854000 836000  PETROLEUM  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 WOOD 3  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CHEM.3  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  RUBBER 3  48000 45000 96000 102000 54000 49000 90000 150000 161000 102000 86000 109000 65000 IRON 3  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MISC.3  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  VOvOvOvQvOvOVOvOvOvOVOvOVO  vO vO VO vO vO vO vO vOvO vO Ch Ul Ut Ul Ut ut ut ui Ul Ut O VO CO - 4 cn Ut 4 » U»NJ —»  vO v O v O v O v o v O v O v O v O v O v O v O v O  cn u i u t u i u t u t u t u t C n u t u t 4 a « : © VOCO>OCnUt4=UJNJ-»OvOCO  Ul p  o% unU> O CO --4 —» Ui Cn cn —» o op o o bb p o bp o  CO .45  Ul o  00 CO >1 NJ © VO 4s Ul _* Ul ut NJ - J VO . O NJ CO 00 4 » VO mi  Ul o p O o © o © © © p o P b o © © o © o o © o © © © o  03 to  H  a  « w  . o poocooo-4«gcnujNjNjNj u> 4 S O O U t O - » 4 t C h - g U t © ~ . mi voKJcn-*cn-t^jutut-44s© • 4» - » c j \ u t c n c o u t c o O - » u t u i « o © P O P O © O © O P P O © O O P O O O O P O ' 0 . 0  0 0  o o o o o o o o o o o o o  sS HI CO  w  HI  •  4»  S*  ca  t*  rt  -  <  10 X  H  vO VO 4= 4= vO CO  NJ mi U) NJ NJ © vO VO SO CO * 4 vO © VO mi NJ 4S NJ - 4 O 00 ch •>! 00 4~ U>Ut NJ Ut CO CO o cn Ul Ch 4» © Ul00 Ch mi o NJ NJ  mi  mi  mi  mi  -4  mi  -*  p © o © p © © P© © o o O © p © © b © ©© b © o © P p o © p b o.p P © b © © ©  w Q W  •  ix H  HI  •.  •Ho  n  IA  HI  oas a  «4  CO cn VO CO CO  cn Ul  cn 00 UJ NJ vO CO  -* cn  P © © P © © o © o b© © © o © o© o © © o o  Ul U) Ul Ul 4= Ul Ul o o o© O© 4*  ut >4 ut Ut vO o © © b © ©  4S 4 t  mi  mi  NJ VO CO cn 00 -4  mi  © o © p © o ©  Ut Ut  Ut ut 4= 4 S Ut Ul NJ 4? mi Ul cn Ch NJ Ul Ul -* NJ -* o o O o © © o o o o © o o © © © o © b © o © o o © © O 43 CO mi _* 00 CO VO CO - 4 Ut Ul NJ Ut  ut  Ut 4» © O © © © o  Ut ut NJ -4 - 4 4» NJ © © O  O © © P  Q  > w  cn P*  w  o t* H SS  M  vO v O C O ^ J - « J U t 4 3 U 1 U > U J N J N J N J . U iU ) 0 0 - 4 O 4 S C h - 4 s 0 VO Ut 4= O 00 _ » _ » a o t s j u i - 4 4 = ' C D c n 4 s r u 4 = CO N J ^ 4 0 u > N J U I U ) ^ U t U 1 U 1 ~ J  © o o o o o o o o o o © © © ooo©©ooo©o©© © o o o o o o o o o o o o  m 9" •a m PO  a a §  Ut U l ~ * —» mi VO CO P vO VO CO U l LO © NJ VO VO U t ^4 NJ ~ * • 4 NJ NJ U) -4 4? *4 ui oo cn co ut cn NJ Ch NJ u> o t co v o - * cn u> ut ui cn CO -4 © NJ mi © o © © © P © ©© b © o ©  o o Hi HI O as  p ©o o © © © © o o O o o © © © p p o © ©© © © o o  m  m  m  ^  ^  J  m  i  mi  o o o o o o o o o o o o o o ©©oopoopoo©© o o o o o o o o o o o o o  o  t~t •  CS M  fc*  _» _i NJ NJ U t N J N J N J U I U I C n © - 4 - » N J U 1 v O  ©©o©p©©ooooo© 0©PO©0©0©©©0© ©©©o©o©oobb©o  C3  Ht W  H •  as  Ul Ul JIS 45? NJ NJ vO CO CO cn NJ 00 -4 CO Ul © o© © © o o o © o o o oo © © © o © © o © © © o o © o © o © o o  HI  » HI -4 CO © o O o o ©  H r* H tS)  •  H  S3 mi  o o o o o o o o o o o o o © ©  03 •  4 = 4 » U > 4 ? 4 S U J U ! 4 = ' ut 4= UJ 4= 4= U J N J 0 0 4 = U t 4 = U » C n 4? O CO CO vO 4 S - 0 O N J 0 O 4 S U 1 G C O cn CO vO Ul © v O U l v O N J 4 = O N J U l - 4 vO © Ut ©  © P O O O O O O  © © © © o ©©oaoooo O o o o o o o o o o o o o o © o o ©  •  1 1— OS  1  M  1  SO t  vO < O - » 4 = Q 0 O - 4 © ~ » 4 S - ^ 0 0 - « 4 4S 4 S 4 » v O N J 0 0 v O 4 s u i C h U ) U 1 C n 4» c n N J N J c o u t O N O C h c n - » © u i 00 c o o © u t 4 » v 0 4 S N J U > - » c n c n  p  w  ow HI  m P  SB • O B W r9 Ss» tr* •.  -jp  w to  t> w 9* •  w  *  CO 00 CO -4 >4 Ch Ul Ul J P P UJ Ui UJ to P o -J p u> Ch Ch 4= 00 «4 -J Ul •Cf to _k CO Ul CO Ul p Ul Ul >4 -4 Ul P o b o Ul Ul P Ul to Ch Ul 4= o o p p o Pp p o o p p b oo o p p P p o o p o o o© p p p Pp o p p o o  t-3  VO VO vO vb VO vO VO vO vO vO vo vo vo ChUl cn cn Ul cn tn tn cn cn cn P P o vO CO - 4 OS cn P Ul tO -Jk © VO CD  «OV0vOv0vOvOv0vOvO VO vO vO vo osuicncnuiuiuicncn Ul Ul p JS O v 0 0 0 < 4 0 S U l P U ) t O - * O VO CO  VO vO vO vO VO vO vO SO vO vO vO VO vO as ui Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul c 43 O vO 00 -J Ch Ul P Ul to - J t o VO CO  >4 >J OS Ch • p Ul -Jk -Jk to Ul -4 —Jk -4 CO 00 - 4 o ^1 to CO to to p 00 > 4 OS o J P to Ui to -4 P p p p p p p p o p o o p p © p o p p o p o o p  VO O - 4 - 4 -J to _k C O C O Ul VO to 00 - 4 - 4 CO oo ^ vo 01 p p p p p © Pop P p OOOP  X  Hi  H fr-  w  CO  -Jk to to to to -Jt -jk to -jk —» —* VO O p -jt to vo os p •O P P p P CO OS ChCO p -»to P p p p p - 4 p OS _k -Jk p 00 VO —k ui cn cn © P o p p p p POP POP p Op p o p o © P P P OP . p P p p p p p p p p p p p  to to -Jt -jk  *tJ  s> H 53  Hi P  p  CO CO Ch Ch O S  to vO VO VO Ul Ch Ul vO vO vO Ul •4 >4 Ul CO <4 p o © o p o P p o o p o p o p p o o p P  n as w •  •JP  at u> Ul to to to to -a P P Ul to - J k p p Ui Ch o p CO _k -Jk vO P -1 to Ui to CO p to to vO o op o p o p o p o p p O o op o p o o o p o p p o o op o o p p o p p o p o 4=  P P  P  UJ Ul  H (A  n  w  tr*  tr*  •. 4=  UJCOCOtOtOtOtOtO-k -ktOOvO-4P-k-k--4 COPvOCOtOChCO-4-k -4VO-JkUJtOUitOvOvO p o p p o p p p o PPOQOOOOO P O P P P P P P O  CO -4  J P J P UJ Cn Ul OS  tO « 4 - 4 4 = P o o o O OP P p o P o  -»to VO P VO CO ChUl Ul Ch O O J P CO to p k -4 J P os co to b — as os vo P co -Jk p OOP P o p o OP OP Pp o p ©o p o© o  Ui p -mm 00 CO 00 JP C hUl VO VO p Ul -Jk OS vO vO to ->4 C hUl 00 OS -Jk p o p p o p o o o p p p p p p o p o  -» W - I - i o VO 00 C D O P O -k —Jk -Jk ro O co C D - k Ul p O UJ Ul UJ UJto - 4 P P P o o p o P OO P P p o OP P O Po o  00 ChChUi cn cn o UJ VO J p P p VO CO Ul -Jk -Jk Ch - 4 • 4 - 4 4= to - 4 o p o o o p p o p o o p p o o p o o  33  O O  a P  H CO o p  CO to Ul p p Chcn Ch Ui • 4 vO CO Ul p - 4 cn Ul - 4 CO P o © P p o o p Op o o o P o p  p p Os -Jk Ul - 4 to • 4 o P p P o P  CO to P Ul CO Ui OS - 4 oo cn cn Ui to CO 00 P P Oh vo P tO - 4 -k PPO ppo p p p PPO P POo o o -Jk  p p Ui Ul Ul Ul to tO tO to CO to Ul cn to P cn ui ui 00 U J —Jk cn « 4 to -O ~ 4 Ul VO -J> UiOS - 4 vO p cn —» CO VO to vO •4 OS o P cn - 4 p p P o o o o POO o o o b p P p o p p O P P POO o o O © p o p O P o POO  a  -JI  o op p o p o o o o p p p o oo o p o o o p p p p p o oo © o p p p p p o p o  as Ui  •o tr* *o  so  to  ss • w w  w  • p  to to to to to to Os - 4 as cn Ul p CO oo P cn vO cn ~k to p CO p P cn co P —k - 4 OS cn Choo cn os cn P p Oo o o o o o o o o o o p o o OP o p o o p p p p <0 C D  Hi  a  o i  M  Ch to  •  1  o ta • P  SO  a  00  cd w 50 P  *» to to -» co co cn P Ul Ul OOP P o o POO  n  o SB  •  53  CO VO00 o CO 00 00 CO Ch Ch Ul Ul J P vO vO 10 UJ -J Ul JP p Ch —» Ch 4= -4 Ch co -Jk 00 UJ Ul Ul p Ul •Jk •4 Ch Ul  <  H 25 H 58  Ul Ul 4= UJ - J k P O UJ o CO JP to Ch C Ul 00 CO o P to O "J -J UJ -Jk o o oo o p p o o oo o o p p o op p p p p  H  •+ as  •  • P  - 163 -  TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED)  PAPERED.5 1948 1949 1950 19.51 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  FARH MACH.  MACHINERY  AUTOMOBILE 5934000 5405000 18972000 36362000 33152000 40575000 32801000 46783000 58489000 47714000 44307000 51750000 54181000  1054000 6 24000 1612000 2004000 1439000 1588000 3380000 3999000 4328000 3634000 3078000 3212000 3365000  320000 278000 163000 212000 229000 260000 293000 296000 330000 385000 507000 431000 391000  26419000 24257000 25643000 35079000 36045000 40620000 39065000 47185000 65101000 64627000 51348000 58240000 58585000  ELECTRIC  CHINA  PAINT 5  11732000 13239000 14817000 21925000 25494000 34219000 36028000 39688000 45604000 43636000 38883000 46176000 40802000  461000 574000 533000 592000 499000 479000 501000 596000 596000 676000 659000 587000 6 09000  14000 13000 14000 15000 25000 55000 62000 46000 50000 60000 70000 100000 104000  15000 13000 23000 36000 56000 108000 86000 120000 84000 68000 81000 96000 122000  CONS.GOODS  ROBBER 5  AG.+AN.5  TEXTILES 5  3801000 5262000 13452000 13142000 29245000 20761000 17501000 16834000 38172000 19758000 20795000 20897000 18945000  767000 558000 648000 1229000 2008000 2013000 1574000 2550000 3312000 2849000 3259000 4431000 4434000  1254000 1340000 1340000 1722000 1581000 2004000 2007000 2265000 2503000 2743000 2843000 2989000 2926000  11148000 11909000 11912000 15307000 14054000 17816000 17838000 20137000 22252000 24386000 25272000 26565000 26008000  IND. CHEM. 5  - 164 -  TABLE A.XI? (CONTINUED)  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  HOOD 5  IRON 5  N.FERR.5  N.HETALL.5  3504000 3743000 3744000 4811000 4417000 5599000 5606000 6329000 6994000 7664000 7943000 8349000 8174000  15030000 16056000 16060000 20638000 18 948000 24020000 24050000 27149000 30001000 32878000 34072000 35815000 35065000  3464 000 3700000 3701000 4756000 4367000 5536000 5543000 6257000 6914000 7577000 7852000 8254000 8081000  2359000 2520000 2521000 3239000 2974000 3770000 3775000 4261000 4709000 5160000 5348000 5621000 5504000  CHEH.5  HISCELL.5  3683000 3934000 3935000 5057000 4643000 5886000 5893000 6652000 7351000 8056000 8349000 8776000 8592000  5216000 5572000 5573000 7162000 6575000 8335000 8346000 9421000 10411000 11409000 11824000 12429000 12168000  V0  vOv0v0v0V0i0v0V0 ChChChCTvChChChCh  10 VO 10 10 vp vO .SO VO Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch - J Ch on 4= OJ tO - * O  v0  vO vO vO  vO iO sO vO VO vO  ChChchChChChChCh  VO VO  V0  Hi  VO  Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch -o Ch on 4= 0J to mi O  O O M J i e U W - l O  ^ehon4»ojto-*o  V0  CD  t* «  ro to to o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o  « o o  **' Ht  «...  -k-»_»_k_*tO_k_k >JChC0V0VOO0000 vO—kOOvOCOIOOJO  -k  o © p p o o o o o o  .63  w cn  «4to>J.chcov0utun O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O P P O P O O O O  o o  *i M  Ul 0J OJ 0J 0J 0J 0J 0J o o -4 Ut mi VO on -o Ch VO - J mi to 4» 4S o o o o O o o o o O  on Ch on ch 00 tn CO Ul on o o o o o b o o o  o o o o o  •X H <J  • Ed  a M  HI  171  to .-"» #  O. O  w SS a t-3 co- H SS re  w —k _» —k  ro 4» o  K 33  KO  ch >«j >«J on  -k OJ CO CJ Ch Ch O CO  ->1 4» CO ch O O o o o o © o o o o o  o o o o  to b o o  ch o o o  o o o o  Ht n w K) H  o  IO —k —k  o o o o o o o o o o o o o o  03 H o W w  - j ut on ut UlOJ-kUlOJUI-kOO  o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o  t-3 w  p.  on on 4= on -0 CO 00 Ch CO CO vO OJ  4» 4= CO 4= o o o O o o o O  JP 4= -4 4= O ^1 Ch CO  4= 4S 43 Ch CO on  -4  mi  o o O o o o o o ,o o o o o o o o  t •< W  a w t-3 •  bd a to w H p o p mi  vO  Ch o 1 vO Ch CO  n o t-3  M  w o  to  Ch o to Ch 00 Ch Ch ~J  o o o o p o o o o o o o o o o o o o o p o o o o  9S  o to  rt  o as o o o o o o o o  to  rO  mi  mi  mk  mm  U> ***  H mi  UlCh4=ChOOhJ03-k  oj-*onon4=~»-*vo OO4»V00J45:ChCh  O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O o  > a  VO Ch  —*  to on to o o o  o o P O O o o o o o o o o o o  X  • +  •  • o o ta  S3  Ch %4 on Ch on un on  CO VO 0J OJ CO on on 00 00 VO mi OJ 00 o to OJ 0J 0J vO o on CO 0J P  o o p o o o o o o o o p o o o p o o o o o o o o  m CJ 9» vo a  to o  tx)  mk  as  mi  o o o o o o o o o o  K  si o o f to  o o o o o o o o  s» w w tt» a  01  to ro OJ to to to -4 o ~4 vO 00 VO - J VO Ut to -4 o o p o o O o o o o o o o o o o o o  to ro  00 Ch OJ 4?  b o o o o o  o o n o  So  - 166 -  TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED)  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  PETROLEUM  RUBBER  COAL :ANT.  COAL BIT.  0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 113000  3162000 2999000 2970000 3295000 4187000 4811000 4644000 4503000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  71000 47000 37000 17000 112000 135000 84000 69000  ?EGET.OILS  COTTON F.  JUTE F.  WORSTEDS  1136000 1518000 1377000 1351000 1490000 2103000 2402000 1331000  15216000 15371000 15530000 13847000 20185000 13813000 16455000 15336000  73000 93000 123000 159000 136000 116000 121000 157000  4349000 5113000 5877000 4618000 5042000 5297000 4852000 4864000  PAPERBOARD  ROLL.BILL  TIN BLOCKS  GLASS  7745000 8349000 8760000 8083000 8712000 9045000 9633000 8841000  10253000 8512000 10376000 9761000 15243000 20184000 13847000 13262000  0 0 0 0 0 1000 0 0  823000 929000 1712000 1331000 1346000 1355000 1345000 1267000  GASOLINE  FERTILIZER  IND.CHEM.  FARM MACH.  898000 623000 516000 857000 845000 812000 898000 1417000  96000 110000 111000 90000 99000 83000 86000 99000  944000 1015000 1007000 950000 8643000 6225000 7009000 7684000  269000 271000 372000 305000 396000 364000 390000 408000  V0 1 0 O N ON  -J  ON  HI  >  SO vO vO vO vO vO V 0 vO  NO NO vO vO VO vO O N ON O N ON ON O N cn P u> NJ - * 0  O N ON O N O N O N O N O N O N *4  ON  tn p  Ui  NJ  -Jt  CO  tr*  O  M  tr* • -J>  O  CO V 0 CO CO CO >4 ON ON - J - 4 - J CO - J JP cn - 4 CO 0 O Q  P O O  vo Ui vo O O O  0 0  O O O O  *4  NJ P P cn P  Ul Ol *4  -J  ON -4  CO  P p vo O 0 0  0 0  O  0  © ©  © 0  w  _4 _ l ©  0  —I 0  -4  ON O N  00 NJ  P  0  HI  jp ON Ul - i m p  H  O  NJ  a*  cn O  - 4 ON O N - 4 O O © O  © O  © O  NJ  ON ON  O ©  to  Ul vO  Ul cn  —i  C O _» NJ 0 P Ul O N C O VO © U J 0 0 O  © © © © © © © O 0 ©  3  S*  o  •X  H  rc H  a  w w  o  0  SB!  HI H' ss  a _»  O VO  C O - J ON O N ON O N CO CO - 4 - 4 CO ON ON CO 0 0 - 4 ON ON O p 0 O O 0 O 0 O O O 0 O 0 0 O  K)  NJ O  vO  -J. P  O  0  VO 00  O 0  cn  -4cn  vO P 0 P -J 0  -4  O  CO VO  cn 0  0  0 0  O O  0  O  4»  P  CO  Ul  cn cn 0 0 0  -» U> cn  uONi ON 0 0 0  © ©  ON ON  vo KJ ON  © O  —* _» —» cn P cn —1 cn CO -4  p 0 0  © © ©  ON C U C O - 4 -4 O cn  O  NJ vO P Ul  O © O © ©  NJ NJ NJ -*. Ut -* O C O 0  Ul  00  p  NJ vo C O vo 0 0  -j>  0  0  0  0  0  Ul NJ NJ > 4 VO V O  Ul vO O N C O O N > 4 tO VO NJ O VO O N NJ ON ON - 4 ON V O © NJ  O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O ©  W w 0 1-9  M  O  as CO  Ul Ul Ui Ui  P - 4 CO 0 C D —» C O vo C O cn - 4 CO - » ON - 4 P N J C O C O ON O O O O .© O O O O O O O O © O  ON  Ul cn  ON VO 0 V O —k O O p -J p CO 0 © 0  vO  a HI  O 3  O CO  ©  H tr*  0  W  Ui  w  0 0  0 0  Ul  UJ CO ON ON ON  CQ  rt O  HI H O S3 P  p -» vo cn  -4 P 0 0 cn  P CO  NJ ON CO O 1 0 C O ' P cn 0 © © O O O 0  Ul vO  ©  p o o ©  P  Ul  NJ  0  vO  P  NJ -4  cn 0 0  ©  Ui  ©  cn ©  O  0  ©  0  _ l ON 0  © ©  rt  HI H  O S3  cn  n  HI  E d M O tr* H  W 0  fr rt  <J  —*  —* ON cn  0  ON P  P  VO  p  Ul O C O cn C O O ON C O C O Ul P C O C O ON p © 0 0 O O O 0 0 0 0 O O O 0 O O O 0 0 © 0 0  ©  ©  rt s* S3 H 3  •  w P  - 168 -  TABLE A.XIV  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD  F.FRUITS  F.VEGET.  SUGAR  COCOA  3568000 3704000 4156000 3740000 3784000 3945000  5588000 5802000 5684000 5951000 6131000 6501000  7883000 6862000 8354000 9615000 8055000 6745000  277000 11000 0 0 0 0  COFFEE  TEA  IND.CORN  MEAT  1797000 26000 0 0 0 0  3000 0 0 0 0 0  2330000 2466000 2091000 1457000 1369000 1322000  1354000 1806000 4543000 • 4768000 4866000 5116000  HIDES  COTTON R.  WOOL R.  0 0 0 0 0 0  2000 0 1000 0 10000 20000  0 0 0 0 0 0  0 0 7000 0 0 1000  , WOOL TOPS  IRON ORE  BAUX.+AL.  COPPER ORE  2000 6000 0 2000 52000 104000  6000 6000 2000 5000 22000 40000  19000 12000 13000 5000 8000 12000  47000 6000 0 1000 1000 2000  COAL B I T .  PETROLEUM  RUBBER  COTTON F.  69000 24000 23000 25000 36000 49000  15336000 10989000 11132000 9536000 12689000 16721000  SOYABEANS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1968-1972  4503000 3567000 796000 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 346000 710000  -  TABLE A.XIV  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  -  (CONTINUED)  JUTE F.  WORSTEDS  COATED F.  VENEERS  157000 100000 99000 75000 77000 84000  4864000 5377000 5428000 4779000 4090000 3684000  6447000 7927000 9190000 9953000 11207000 13236000  4904000 5286000 6630000 4250000 6716000 9647000  T I N BLOCKS  GASOLINE  HEAVY FOEL  13262000 11865000 19222000 16095000 18849000 22906000  0 0 17000 0 5000 10000  1417000 1430000 2142000 1781000 1320000 951000  4272000 3707000 3816000 3961000 1985000 146000  IND.CHE8.  INOR.CHEfi.  ORG.CHEM.  FARM MACH.  ROLL. HILL: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  169  7684000 7816000 9195000 9155000 10278000 12109000  5702000 5736000 6210000 5939000 6 179000 6848000  7615000 8087000 9275000 9208000 9883000 11241000  408000 275000 540000 614000 585000 657000  DRILLING  AUTOMOBILE  ELECTRICAL  L I V E ANIM.  10381000 8126000 11823000 12091000 15092000 20692000  33774000 41134000 49530000 49456000 65733000 93339000  78689000 72274000 83934000 79004000 92670000 1223050 00  1108000 670000 551000 1094000 1451000 1467000  SECTION 2  SECTION 3  SECTION 4  SECTION 5  103799000 95309000 115742000 112862000 119738000 130319000  10226000 9649000 5043000 3693000 5156000 6875000  230980000 230575000 265027000 251860000 282283000 3 32223000  467055000 457530000 522842000 521551000 590218000 760573000  - 170 -  TABLE A.X? RE-EXPORTS, DISAGGREGATED SERIES, 1948-1972 1, SUBPERIOD 1948-1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  WHEAT  BARLEY  WHISKY  WHEAT FL  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  2000 3000 6000 24000 134000 7000 4000 12000 22000 7000 20000 49000 0  6000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  OATS  TOBACCO  BEEF  CATTLE S  0 0 29000 43000 0 0 0 7000 1000 0 0 0 0  2000 0 0 58000 3000 0 0 0 0 2000 2000 9000 9000  0 0 0 10000 0 0 7000 63000 0 5000 35000 35000 58000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 0  CATTLE D  MILK  EGGS  FISH 2  16000 10000 5000 40000 4000 27000 42000 103000 20000 121000 50000 24000 65000  0 0 0 0 2000 0 0 0 12000 0 0 6000 0  0 0 0 7000 0 0 5000 1000 5000 0 0 0 4000  250000 70000 15000 23000 529000 24000 77000 175000 171000 367000 202000 161000 348000  - 171 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 194 9 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  AG.+AN.2  CHEM.2  MISCELL.2  FISH 3  1669000 1347000 1920000 1949000 3835000 2416000 2698000 4190000 3310000 2729000 2797000 3214000 3391:000  19000 15000 14000 24000 21000 20000 20000 22000 25000 31000 56000 47000 66000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  . LEATHER 3  FURS  HIDES  PULPHOOD  0 0 0 2000 1000 5000 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 5000  587000 539000 734000 887000 1243000 712000 973000 690000 816000 837000 667000 685000 515000  22000 0 0 0 0 15000 13000 20000 0 0 21000 0 41000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23000 0 0 721000 1103000  IRON ORE  COPPER 3  LEAD 3  ALUMINUM 3  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10000 24000 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 151000 87000 4000 16000 2000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7000 4000 1000 0 0  - 172 -  TABLE ft.XV (CONTINUED)  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  NICKEL 3  ZINC 3  SILVER 3  PLATINUM  0 0 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 16000 0 7000 10000 0 0 31000 0 0  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  7000 34000 0 121000 42000 37000 98000 18000 7000 40000 4894000 8677000 8453000  ASBESTOS  COAL  AG.+AN.3  TEXTILES 3  1000 0 0 17000 10000 26000 46000 0 0 0 0 4000 6000  97000 29000 152000 17000 16000 11000 17000 9000 14000 27000 10000 109000 5000  107000 86000 123000 125000 245000 154000 173000 268000 212000 175000 179000 206000 217000  1600000 2093000 2211000 4583000 2721000 2074000 2146000 1512000 1795000 1447000 1647000 1567000 3447000  HOOD 3  IRON 3  N.FEHR.3  N.METALL.3  26000 20000 20000 25000 21000 28000 26000 30000 37000 41000 48000 52000 67000  6000 6000 8000 7000 12000 15000 20000 21000 26000 45000 54000 65000 63000  125000 115000 238000 224000 302000 350000 366000 419000 419000 501000 759000 628000 918000  2990000 2921000 3968000 3565000 4508000 5320000 5198000 6518000 5792000 9074000 5455000 5020000 4247000  - 173 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  MISCELL.3  FISH 4  LEATHER 4  NEWSPRINT  6000 7000 8000 6000 10000 12000 19000 14000 15000 14000 17000 17000 17000  7000 0 0 2000 2000 4000 0 0 13000 25000 39000 13000 15000  32000 57000 93000 161000 32000 164000 124000 128000 136000 150000 172000 227000 231000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  WOOD PULP  PLANKS  SHINGLES  PLYWOOD  0 2000 6000 43000 1000 100000 2000 0 0 2000 0 0 0  73000 18000 61000 18000 20000 14000 14000 57000 96000 95000 73000 98000 88000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 0 0 0  3000 0 1000 1000 0 1000 0 1000 10000 8000 9000 40000 7000  PIG IRON  COPPER 4  LEAD 4  ALUMINUM 4  0 0 0 39000 0 0 0 96000 0 0 0 0 0  0 1000 0 4000 0 0 29000 83000 63000 126000 10000 62000 3000  0 0 20000 4 83000 0 0 3000 0 0 0 0 0 0  165000 6000 35000 76000 7000 46000 92000 30000 42000 27000 53000 33000 126000  - 174 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  NICKEL 4 194 8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  0 2000 10000 57000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FERTILIZER  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  ZINC 4 1000 1000 0 1000 2000 1000 0 0 0 ; 0 0 0 0 AG. + AN. 4  SILVER 4  ABRASIVES  285000 0 0 602000 0 0 0 0 0 0 5000 0 0  4000 1000 1000 12000 3000 7000 7000 4000 4000 9000 6000 13000 1000  TEXTILES 4  WOOD 4  0 48000 0 9000 1000 34000 208000 207000 67000 175000 139000 316000 63000  356000 288000 410000 416000 819000 516000 576000 895000 707000 583000 597000 686000 724000  1159000 1516000 1601000 3319000 1970000 1502000 1554000 1095000 1300000 1048000 1193000 1135000 2496000  214000 168000 161000 209000 175000 233000 210000 246000 305000 337000 396000 430000 551000  IRON 4  N.FERR.4  N.METALL.4  CHEM.4  278000 264000 360000 328000 513000 680000 893000 934000 1160000 1991000 2368000 2854000 2773000  415000 380000 790000 743000 999000 1161000 1215000 1388000 1389000 1660000 2516000 2083000 3042000  1251000 1222000 1660000 1491000 1886000 2226000 2175000 2727000 2423000 3796000 2282000 2100000 1777000  1514000 1170000 1100000 1893000 1605000 1537000 1557000 1696000 1947000 2437000 4377000 3660000 5151000  - 175 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 •  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960  MISCELL.4  EARS MACH.  MACHINERY  AUTOMOBILE  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  440000 721000 952000 1147000 1481000 945000 2053000 1417000 1274000 1697000 1379000 1269000 2352000  7123000 3514000 5009000 6865000 7201000 8556000 9167000 11451000 12104000 16853000 15905000 20492000 22580000  2295000 1710000 2492000 6042000 5619000 3316000 3490000 4562000 3569000 3843000 2905000 3477000 4257000  AG.+AN.5  TEXTILES 5  WOOD 5  IRON 5  350000 283000 403000 409000 804000 507000 566000 879000 694000 572000 587000 674000 711000  166000 217000 229000 475000 282000 215000 222000 157000 186000 150000 171000 162000 357000  570000 447000 428000 555000 466000 620000 558000 655000 811000 897000 1054000 1143000 1465000  3211000 3047000 4149000 3787000 5919000 7849000 10304000 10779000 13384000 22976000 27326000 32935000 31999000  N.FERR.5  N.BETALL.5  CHEM.5  MISCELL.5  1176000 1078000 2241000 2109000 2835000 3293000 3446000 3938000 3942000 4709000 7139000 5910000 8630000  189000 184000 250000 225000 285000 336000 328000 411000 366000 573000 344000 317000 268000  134000 104000 97000 168000 142000 136000 138000 150000 172000 216000 388000 324000 4560 00  4577000 4748000 5953000 4544000 7026000 8637000 13375000 9705000 10805000 10241000 12353000 12406000 12450000  vO VO VO VO vO vO vO VO Ch OS OS Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Os Ul 43 OJ NJ —» ©  -  vO vO VO vO VO VO VO vO Ch Ch Ch Ch ON ch Ch ON ^4 ON U l 43 OJ NJ —k © 1  VO vO vO vO vO vO V0 Ch Ch en Ch Ch Ch Ch ON Ch on 43 OJ NJ - 4 ©  HI 9»  vOvOvOvOvbvOvOvO ONChChChONChChCh ^ 4 C h U 1 4 = 0 J N J - » O  Cd  w  • X  < Os  OJ _» Ch o o O  o  43 -a O  o o o o o o o "© o p o  on —» - 4 NJ © on OJ 00 00 o o o © © o o o o o © o p o o© o © o o © o  ch  33 M O  w to  "  _»  NJ  -k  M  a  o  CO  © ©  o b 0  VO Oo 43 Ul  o o o p o o o o o o ©  o  IX*  HI 00  -43 ON vO P o P P  m  N)  © o o © o o o o o o  ss w fB, HI-  NJ  • a o 38  to a HI w H •N3 53 W S O  H  43 43 43 Ch vO vO CO —» NJ - 4 o vO 43 UJ on on OJ vO OJ O O b o © o o o o oo o o P P o  o  oo o o o o  o  no a  « o o o  H S3  o a  NJ  o  o o o o oo o o o o  43 UJ 43 43 OJ O Os 43 ~* Ch - » vO -4 -4 o O OJ o b o O o o o  o o  o  oo o o o o oo o o o o o  o w W  t) tr* s» t-3 H SS  a  S3  HI  on NJ -o Ch  (H  .  43 Ch NJ NJ 43 NJ _» vO - 4 on 00 0 J NJ NJ vO o on - J O © •o o o © © © O o o o o CD o o o o o o o o © o  NJ —» CO OJ _* OJ —» ~k NJ — i —» NJ 43 o NJ - 4 ON  o o o o o o p o o o o © © o o © o o o o o © o o  O O  N  10  SB  o  cu w to w  -4 OJ _* -4 OJ -4 NJ O  O o  O C5 O  -  N) vO © © © o O' © © © o o © © © o © o © o o O N  43 0 J NJ U l on NJ NJ U l -4 VO Ch Ch on on o CO NJ 43 ON vO 00 © © o O © o © © o oo o O o o © o o© o O o © o  CO  O CO  toCs  n o  ca w  rt *j  s* so  OJ  © © ©  ©  ©  ©  O  O  P  ©  ©  43  © o o o o o o o o o o o  f*  ©  Mi  _*  W  1  Si 33  H  CO  vi K  33 SS  w > HI  —*  Ul © Ul mA —k NJ o © © o o o © o o o o o © © o o o o o © o CO  © o  •4  —k on VO 00 OS av O —k  VO —»  on o  —k  o o ©  a w to  O  ON vO NJ 00 O © O o O o  vO 43 NJ  o O o O © o o O o o o o o  CS H  t-t  Tl t-  1  o o o o o o o o  —* vO Ch  •  vO ON CO  a  W O  - 177 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  ASBESTOS  COAL  LEATHER  NEWSPRINT  6000 121000 35000 49000 4000 40000 5000 2000  5000 3000 36000 2000 27000 47000 57000 55000  232000 223000 229000 182000 196000 262000 243000 302000  0 2000 1000 0 0 0 0 0  WOOD PULP  LUMBER  SHINGLES  PLYWOOD  0 40000 3000 0 0 10000 27000 10000  88000 61000 71000 82000 53000 216000 146000 136000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  7000 28000 35000 48000 29000 93000 33000 57000  COPPER  ALUMINUM  PIG IRON 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  ROLL.MILL v  0 0 0 8000 0 0 0 0  852000 506000 682000 611000 465000 943000 504000 685000  3000 4000 17000 4000 6000 46000 102000 113000  257000 79000 236000 154000 406000 393000 745000 1333000  NICKEL  ZINC  ABRASIVES  FERTILIZER  0 23000 7111000 12491000 17640000 21473000 15861000 19095000  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  13000 59000 81000 61000 70000 183000 201000 322000  63000 33000 129000 8000 22000 30000 11000 5000  - 178 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967  ELECTRICITY  FARM MACH.  MACHINERY  AUTOMOBILE  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  5514000 7422000 5097000 6078000 8868000 8837000 8185000 9610000  23941000 24109000 28294000 29594000 31934000 40760000 464 98000 50266000  10825000 6318000 6732000 8551000 15469000 19649000 25415000 30972000  CONS.GOODS  RUBBER  LIVE ANIM.  SECTION 2  657000 1291000 820000 754000 706000 725000 1318000 1869000  441000 233000 200000 168000 275000 650000 388000 576000  259000 78000 187000 189000 73000 116000 121000 864000  3571000 5194000 5815000 7715000 8432000 10496000 10091000 11380000  SECTION 3  SECTION 4  SECTION 5  10773000 8963000 8926000 9799000 6333000 8299000 9208000 7664000  25950000 21775000 36019000 43184000 56872000 57037000 50207000 56248000  85067000 99978000 113568000 114772000 134604000 160157000 181480000 216808000  - 179 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1971 ;. 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1968-1972  WHEAT  BARLEY  WHISKY  0 0 9000 0 0 954000  3000 0 0 0 0 0  0 7000 45000 62000 21000 39000  0 0 0 0 0 0  TOBACCO  BEEF  FISH  CHEESE  7000 75000 27000  306000 168000  425000 322000 5042000 10979000 177000 908000  572000 614000 763000 1125000 2214000 3227000  281000 35000 212000 508000 310000 183000  FDRS  HIDES  PULPWOOD  IRON ORE  816000 656000 699000 669000 1540000 4212000  0 0 59000 10,00 149000 30000  424000 185000 58000 0 1000 0  0 0 24000 0 0 0  NICKEL  PLATINUM  ASBESTOS  106000 250000 959000 1469000 66000 50000  337000 151000 398000 12000 282000 2000  2000 79000 1000 3000 2000 1000  0 0 0 0 0 506000  NAT.GAS  NEWSPRINT  WOOD PULP  LUMBER  0 0 0 0 0 0  0 1000 0 3000 140000 0  10000 0 0 8000 151000 11000  136000 135000 37000 187000 166000 246000  47000  WHEAT FL.  PETROLEDM  - 180 -  TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED)  ROLL,HILL  COPPER  ALUMINUM  0 0 0 117000 0 0  685000 632000 1260000 1651000 10831000 9047000  113000 960000 314000 76000 413000 818000  1333000 2308000 974000 1607000 1338000 1301000  NICKEL  ZINC  ABRASIVES  CHEMICALS  19095000 20587000 31321000 30934000 33183000 50836000  0 0 0 0 0 0  322000 191000 227000 635000 468000 450000  2456000 1048000 1251000 6438000 25749000 9899000  ELECTRICITY  FARM MACH.  MACHINERY  AUTOMOBILE  0 0 0 0 0 o  9610000 10670000 11228000 11493000 12516000 10584000  50266000 60867000 75283000 68730000 64765000 66761000  31652000 40153000 51461000 48088000 45565000 48761000  CONS,GOODS  RUBBER  LIVE ANIM.  SECTION 2  1869000 1573000 2965000 3595000 3099000 4829000  576000 977000 867000 1268000 1126000 1654000  864000 249000 235000 435000 419000 194000  11380000 11587000 21430000 32071000 18643000 25851000  SECTION 3  SECTION 4  SECTION 5  7664000 7574000 10403000 9294000 8046000 9966000  56248000 60384000 77793000 79433000 119512000 129260000  216808000 268205000 314252000 294321000 275518000 307499000  PIG IEON . 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  

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