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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Canadian technology and derived import demand and export supply functions 1975

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CANADIAN TECHNOLOGY AND DERIVED IMPORT DEMAND AND EXPORT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS L i e . es S c . E c o n . , U n i v e r s i t e de L a u s a n n e , 1971 M . A . , Q u e e n ' s U n i v e r s i t y , 1972 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d by ULRICH JOHAN ROBERT KOHLI i n t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f ECONOMICS THE UNIVERSITY OF BRIT ISH COLUMBIA O c t o b e r , 1975 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I ag ree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s u n d e r s t o o d tha t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f £ C ^ O C * n n i C - 5 > The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumbia 2 0 7 5 W e s b r o o k P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a V 6 T 1W5 - i i ABSTRACT I n t h i s t h e s i s we m o d e l t h e s t r u c t u r e o f C a n a d i a n f o r e i g n t r a d e and i n v e s t i g a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p among i m p o r t s , e x p o r t s , and o t h e r i n p u t s o r o u t p u t s . R a t h e r t h a n e s t i m a t e i s o l a t e d i m p o r t and e x p o r t demand f u n c t i o n s , we assume t h a t i m p o r t and e x p o r t d e c i s i o n s a r e made by p r o f i t m a x i m i z i n g f i r m s w h i c h c h o o s e t h e q u a n t i t i e s o f t h e i r v a r i a b l e i n p u t s and o u t p u t s s u b j e c t t o a v e c t o r of p r i c e s and a v e c t o r o f f i x e d i n p u t s . I m p o r t s and e x p o r t s a r e t h u s i n t e g r a t e d i n t o a m o d e l o f t h e C a n a d i a n t e c h n o l o g y t o g e t h e r w i t h o t h e r d o m e s t i c i n p u t s and o u t p u t s ( c a p i t a l , l a b o u r , and i n d i r e c t t a x a t i o n on t h e i n p u t s i d e ; c o n s u m p t i o n , i n v e s t m e n t , changes i n i n v e n t o r i e s , and government p u r c h a s e s on t h e o u t p u t s i d e ) . The m o d e l a l s o a l l o w s f o r f a c t o r a u g m e n t i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i n a m u l t i - i n p u t m u l t i - o u t p u t f r a m e w o r k . A p p l y i n g d u a l i t y t h e o r y we s p e c i f y a v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n ( t r a n s l o g ) w h i c h i s a second o r d e r a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o t h i s t e c h n o l o g y . The d e r i v e d i m p o r t demand and e x p o r t s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s a r e t h e n e s t i m a t e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y w i t h t h e e q u a t i o n s o f t h e r e m a i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . T h i s t r e a t m e n t o f i m p o r t s ^ a n d e x p o r t s w i t h i n a c o n s i s t e n t t h e o r e t i c a l f r amework y i e l d s n o t o n l y e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , bu t a l s o d e t e r m i n e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n among i m p o r t s , e x p o r t s , and d o m e s t i c i n p u t s o r o u t p u t s . Thus we f o u n d t h a t e x p o r t s and i n v e s t m e n t goods a r e comp lements i n p r o d u c t i o n and t h a t b o t h a r e i m p o r t i n t e n s i v e . We a l s o f o u n d t h a t i m p o r t s a r e c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e and e x p o r t s l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e . R e g a r d i n g t h e own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f b o t h i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , i t a p p e a r e d t h a t t h e y a r e somewhat h i g h e r t h a n i t was u s u a l l y t h o u g h t . - i i i A m a j o r p a r t o f t h e t h e s i s i s d e v o t e d t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s d a t a . B o t h a r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o f o u r components and p r i c e and q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r 1948 t o 1 9 7 2 . T h e s e i n d i c e s a l s o a c c o u n t f o r i m p o r t d u t i e s and r e - e x p o r t s . - i v - TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n . . . i 2 . E s t i m a t i o n o f Impor t and E x p o r t F u n c t i o n s : The T r a d i t i o n a l A p p r o a c h 3 2 . 1 D i r e c t E s t i m a t i o n o f P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s o f Demand f o r I m p o r t s o r E x p o r t s ^ 2 . 2 E s t i m a t i o n o f E l a s t i c i t i e s o f S u b s t i t u t i o n Be tween I m p o r t s ( E x p o r t s ) f r o m ( t o ) D i f f e r e n t C o u n t r i e s . . . 11 3 . The M o d e l . . . . . . . 18 3 . 1 G e n e r a l D e s c r i p t i o n . 18 3 . 2 The V a r i a b l e P r o f i t F u n c t i o n : Some C o n c e p t s i n D u a l i t y T h e o r y . 20 3 . 3 F u r t h e r T h e o r e t i c a l C o n c e p t s . . . 23 3 . 4 Two S t e p O p t i m i z a t i o n 25 4 . F u n c t i o n a l Form and E s t i m a t i o n T e c h n i q u e 26 4 . 1 The T r a n s l o g V a r i a b l e P r o f i t F u n c t i o n 26 4 . 2 R e g u l a r i t y C o n d i t i o n s 28 4 . 3 T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change 31 4 . 4 S t o c h a s t i c S p e c i f i c a t i o n and E s t i m a t i o n T e c h n i q u e . 34 5 . E m p i r i c a l R e s u l t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 5 . 1 A g g r e g a t e M o d e l . . 36 5 . 2 Impor t and E x p o r t Submodels 44 6 . C o n c l u s i o n s . . . 46 F o o t n o t e s 61 B i b l i o g r a p h y 67 - V - A p p e n d i x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 1 . - D a t a D e s c r i p t i o n : D o m e s t i c V a r i a b l e s 73 2 . C o n s t r u c t i o n o f P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y Components o f C a n a d i a n F o r e i g n T r a d e : 1948 t o 1972 76 2 . 1 A l t e r n a t i v e C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f C a n a d i a n F o r e i g n T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . 76 2 . 2 D i s a g g r e g a t e d P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y S e r i e s . . . 83 2 . 3 C o n s t r u c t i o n o f D i v i s i a P r i c e I n d i c e s a t t h e S e c t i o n L e v e l , 1948 t o 1972 86 - vi - LIST OF TABLES I Parameter Estimates of Translog Variable Profit Functions for Aggregate Canadian Private Economy 1948 to 1972 . . . . . . . . . 49 II Statistics of the Aggregate Model . . . . 51 III Test Statistics, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy, 1948 to 1972 51 IV Rates of Exponential Technological Change, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy, 1948 to 1972 52 V E l a s t i c i t i e s of Transformation, Complementarity and Intensity for Selected Years 1948 to 1972, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy 52 VI e, n, §, and p El a s t i c i t i e s for Selected Years, 1948 to 1972, Aggregate Canadian Private Economy . 54 VII Parameter Estimates of Translog Cost and Revenue Functions for Canadian Foreign Trade, 1948 to 1972 . . . . . 56 VIII Statistics of the Import and Export Submodels 56 IX Test Statistics, Canadian Foreign Trade, 1948 to 1972 . . . 57 X El a s t i c i t i e s of Substitution and Transformation for Selected Years,. 1948 to 1972, Canadian Foreign Trade 58 XI Price E l a s t i c i t i e s for Selected Years 1948 to 1972, Canadian Foreign Trade 59 APPENDIX I Domestic Variables: Value and Price Series, 1948 to 1972 . . 91 II Value and Price Series for Aggregate Imports and by Section (Series Corrected for Import Duties) 92 III Value and Price Series for Aggregate Exports and by Section (Series Corrected for Re-exports) 93 IV' Value and Price Series for Aggregate Imports and by Section. 94 - v i i - V V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r A g g r e g a t e E x p o r t s and by S e c t i o n . 95 V I Summary T a b l e o f D i s a g g r e g a t e d Impor t S e r i e s . . . . . . . . 96 V I I Summary T a b l e o f D i s a g g r e g a t e d E x p o r t S e r i e s . 98 V I I I D i s a g g r e g a t e d Impor t S e r i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 , Code Numbers and 1948 W e i g h t s 100 IX D i s a g g r e g a t e d E x p o r t S e r i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 , Code Numbers and 1948 W e i g h t s . . . 106 X D i s a g g r e g a t e d Impor t S e r i e s , 1960-197 ,2 , Code Numbers , . .1948 and 1968 W e i g h t s 110 X I D i s a g g r e g a t e d Exppr t vSer ' i es^ "1960-s_9727• • OodefL' Numbers , : i 9 4 8 and 1968 W e i g h t s . . . . . . . 112 X I I D i s a g g r e g a t e d V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s , I m p o r t s 1 9 4 8 - 7 2 . . . . 114 X I I I D i s a g g r e g a t e d V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s , E x p o r t s 1 9 4 8 - 7 2 . . . . 136 X IV Impor t D u t i e s , D i s a g g r e g a t e d S e r i e s , 1948 -1972 158 XV R e - e x p o r t s , D i s a g g r e g a t e d S e r i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 . 170 - v i i i - ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to express sincere appreciation to the many people who have contributed to my graduate study and research. I am especially grateful to the members of my thesis committee, W.E. Diewert (Chairman), E.R. Berndt and A.D. Woodland for their generous help and constructive criticism during a l l phases of this study. I also wish to thank: E. Appelbaum, H.G. Bauman, D.F. Burgess, M. Denny, R.G. Harris, J. Helliwell, R.A, Shearer and R.S. Uhler for useful discussions and comments; S. Engesaeter for his assistance in the construction of the data and H. Glouchkow, J.B. Salley and L. Viczian, of Statistics Canada, for their help and cooperation. I am grateful to A.M. Dussault, S. King, and May McKee for their efficient typing job. Gratitude is also expressed to the Canada Council for their financial assistance which made i t possible to devote a l l my time to my education and this study. Finally, I am most thankful 'to my parents for*_heir encourage- ment during the many years of my academic education, and to my wife Kristie for her love and her encouragement. This thesis is dedicated to her. 1. INTRODUCTION I n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e i s one o f t h e b r a n c h e s o f e c o n o m i c s f o r w h i c h s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s t h e most e x t e n s i v e . No t s u r p r i s i n g l y t h e r e f o r e , t h e r e h a v e b e e n a c o n s i d e r a b l e number o f q u a n t i t a t i v e s t u d i e s i n t h i s f i e l d , a l a r g e number o f them a i m i n g t o e s t i m a t e i m p o r t and e x p o r t f u n c t i o n s . The s t a n d a r d p r o c e d u r e i s t o e s t i m a t e i m p o r t s ( o r e x p o r t s ) as a l i n e a r o r l o g l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f some income v a r i a b l e and some r e l a t i v e p r i c e . v a r i a b l e by o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s . I t w i l l be a r g u e d i n t h i s t h e s i s t h a t t h i s p r o c e d u r e i s s u b j e c t t o a w i d e r a n g e o f c r i t i c i s m s , l a r g e l y b e c a u s e o f i t s l a c k o f t h e o r e t i c a l f o u n d a t i o n s o r b e c a u s e o f t h e i m p l i c i t a s s u m p t i o n s , t h e mean ing o f w h i c h a r e s e l d o m t h o r o u g h l y i n v e s t i g a t e d . I n t h i s t h e s i s i m p o r t and e x p o r t f u n c t i o n s . - w i l l be d e r i v e d w i t h i n a more g e n e r a l t h e o r e t i c a l f r a m e w o r k . I n p a r t i c u l a r , we w i l l e s t i m a t e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i m p o r t o r e x p o r t f u n c t i o n s and t h e u n d e r l y i n g t e c h n o l o g y w i t h o u t i m p o s i n g any a p r i o r i r e s t r i c t i o n on t h e s i g n o r t h e s i z e o f t he e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n b e t w e e n t r a d e d goods and d o m e s t i c g o o d s . B u r g e s s ( 1 9 7 4 a , b ) h a s r e c e n t l y made u s e o f d u a l i t y t h e o r y i n e s t i m a t i n g a c o s t f u n c t i o n f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s where i m p o r t s a r e c o m p e t i n g w i t h l a b o u r and c a p i t a l . T h i s f o r m u l a t i o n r e c o g n i z e s t h e f a c t t h a t most i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y t r a d e d goods a r e i n t e r m e d i a t e p r o d u c t s and t h a t even f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s u s u a l l y p a s s t h r o u g h c o m m e r c i a l c h a n n e l s b e f o r e r e a c h i n g f i n a l demand. I n t h i s t h e s i s , a f ramework s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f B u r g e s s i s u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e s t r u c t u r e o f C a n a d i a n f o r e i g n t r a d e . We d e p a r t however f r o m B u r g e s s b y a d d i n g e x p o r t s t o t h e m o d e l . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n d i r e c t t a x e s on - 2 - intermediate transactions are integrated into the model. This i s necessary in order for the accounting identity between the costs and the revenues of the private economy to be satisfied. Factor augmenting technological change i n a multi-input multi-output framework i s modelled and we test for the presence of Hicks neutral technological change. A variable profit function i s used and we regard quantities of traded goods as endogenous and their prices as exogenous rather than the reverse. Although this affects the stochastic specification only, we believe that our formulation is intuitively more attractive since i t is very similar to the traditional model of the pure theory of international trade. Finally, imports and exports are disaggregated and two separate submodels, an import cost function and export revenue function, are estimated. This thesis i s therefore an application of duality theory to international trade. At the same time i t describes the construction and the estimation of a flexible neoclassical impact model of a country's private business sector, with emphasis on the structure of i t s foreign trade. This framework is well suited to analysing the effect of a number of government policies such as changes in t a r i f f s or taxes on outputs, intermediate inputs, and primary input rewards. Finally an important part of the thesis i s devoted to the construction of price and quantity components of postwar Canadian foreign trade. Trade data are put on a consistent classification basis and pre and post t a r i f f prices are constructed. These series provide a useful data base for future research in international trade and the testing of neoclassical production theory. - 3 - 2 . ESTIMATION OF IMPORT AND EXPORT FUNCTIONS: THE TRADITIONAL APPROACH. The c o n v e n t i o n a l mode l o f t h e p u r e t h e o r y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e assumes t h a t t h e r e a r e two goods p r o d u c e d non j o i n t l y u s i n g two f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t i o n and t h a t t r a d e d goods a r e p e r f e c t s u b s t i t u t e s f o r d o m e s t i c a l l y p r o d u c e d g o o d s . On t h e o t h e r hand i n m a c r o e c o n o m i c s o r i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l f i n a n c e , i t i s commonly assumed t h a t o u t p u t c a n be a g g r e g a t e d i n t o one s i n g l e commod i t y . I n t h e K e y n e s i a n f r a m e w o r k , i f t r a d e t a k e s p l a c e , i t s m a i n d e t e r m i n a n t i s assumed to be income o r o u t p u t and t h e i m p o r t e d commodi ty i s e i t h e r a L e o n t i e f complement t o t h e home p r o d u c e d good o r an i n t e r m e d i a t e good w h i c h e n t e r s t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s t o g e t h e r w i t h d o m e s t i c f a c t o r s i n f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n s t o o u t p u t . I n e m p i r i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s , t h e t h e o r e t i c a l f r amework i s u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r a b l y a l t e r e d and r e p l a c e d by a s s u m p t i o n s , whose i m p l i c a t i o n s a r e s e l d o m p r o p e r l y i n v e s t i g a t e d . F o r t h e r e m a i n i n g p a r t o f t h i s c h a p t e r , we d i v i d e e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s r e l a t e d t o t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f i m p o r t and e x p o r t f u n c t i o n s i n t o two s e c t i o n s : ( i ) ' e s t i m a t i o n o f p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f demand f o r i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s , ( i i ) e s t i m a t i o n o f e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n b e t w e e n i m p o r t s ( e x p o r t s ) f r o m ( t o ) d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s . The re have b e e n a l a r g e number o f e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s i n b o t h g r o u p s , many o f them h a v i n g b e e n c o n v e n i e n t l y summar i zed by Cheng ( 1 9 5 9 ) , P r a i s (1962) and Learner and S t e r n ( 1 9 7 0 ) . B e c a u s e o f t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s be tween many o f t h e s e s t u d i e s , o n l y a samp le o f t h e more r e c e n t ones w i l l be r e v i e w e d h e r e , t he m a i n emphas i s b e i n g p u t upon t h e t h e o r e t i c a l f o u n d a - t i o n s o f e i t h e r a p p r o a c h . - 4 - 2.1 Direct Estimation of Price E l a s t i c i t i e s of Demand for Imports or Exports The very large majority of researchers have estimated a variant of one of the two following functions: (1) M = a + b.t + u •PD PD Y 5M (2) In M = a + 3 In ̂ - + y In 3 ^ + v P P D D where: M -= quantity of imports Y = nominal income P_ = price of domestic goods P = price of imports b and c are respectively the income and the price propensity to import, while B and y are the income and theppfiee elasticity of imports. The second functional form thus imposes the condition that both el a s t i c i t i e s are constant. If a l l imported and domestic goods are consumer goods, making use of conventional consumer theory, we can write the quantity of imports an individual i demands as follows: (3) mi - di ( Y i ' v v 4 = d 2 ( Y ± ' PM' V where Y 1 i s individual i's disposable income, P^ is the price vector of - 5 - t h e i m p o r t e d goods and i s t h e p r i c e v e c t o r o f t h e d o m e s t i c g o o d s . I f b o t h i m p o r t s and d o m e s t i c goods c a n be a g g r e g a t e d and i f one f u r t h e r a g g r e g a t e s o v e r a l l i n d i v i d u a l s , (3) becomes : (1) and (2) a r e t h e n m e r e l y f u n c t i o n a l f o rms f o r (4) w h i c h a r e u s e d i n t h e a b s e n c e o f any f u r t h e r k n o w l e d g e a b o u t i t s a c t u a l f o r m . S i m i l a r l y , t h e e x p o r t f u n c t i o n c a n be w r i t t e n a s : where t h e a s t e r i s k s r e f e r t o r e s t o f t h e w o r l d v a r i a b l e s . I f i m p o r t s a r e composed o f non f i n i s h e d goods w h i c h e n t e r t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s i n a d d i t i o n t o d o m e s t i c i n p u t s , a n e q u a t i o n s i m i l a r t o (4) c a n be d e r i v e d f r o m p r o d u c t i o n t h e o r y i f : ( i ) t h e r e e x i s t s a h o m o t h e t i c a g g r e g a t e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n ; ( i i ) a g g r e g a t i o n o v e r i m p o r t s as w e l l as o v e r d o m e s t i c i n p u t s i s p o s s i b l e . I n t h i s c a s e Y s h o u l d be r e d e f i n e d as o u t p u t and P ^ w o u l d be t h e r e n t a l p r i c e o f d o m e s t i c i n p u t s . An e q u a t i o n s i m i l a r t o (5) c o u l d a l s o be d e r i v e d f o r e x p o r t s o f non f i n i s h e d g o o d s . I n v i e w o f t h e f a c t t h a t i m p o r t s a r e g e n e r a l l y composed o f b o t h f i n i s h e d and non f i n i s h e d g o o d s , t h e common p r o c e d u r e i s t o t a k e f o r t h e income v a r i a b l e some p r o x y f o r b o t h o u t p u t and d i s p o s a b l e income s u c h as M = D< Y' PM' V' o r , a s s u m i n g t h e a b s e n c e o f money i l l u s i o n : Y (4) M = D( P. - 6 - GNP. The d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e w h i c h i s u s e d i s v e r y o f t e n t h e w h o l e s a l e p r i c e i n d e x . When i m p o r t f u n c t i o n s f o r v a r i o u s commodi ty g r o u p s a r e e s t i m a t e d , t h e s t a n d a r d method c o n s i s t s i n t r y i n g f o r e a c h e q u a t i o n a number o f d i f f e r e n t i ncome and d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e s a n d , i n many i n s t a n c e s , a d d i n g a v a r i e t y o f s u p p l e m e n t a r y e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s n o t a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h e b a s i c m o d e l . ' ' ' B o t h f u n c t i o n a l f o rms (1) and (2) have b e e n e s t i m a t e d by o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e f o r v a r i o u s c o u n t r i e s o r commodi ty g r o u p s , u s i n g i n t e r w a r o r p o s t w a r d a t a . B a l l and Marwah (1962) u s e d e q u a t i o n (1) t o e s t i m a t e U n i t e d S t a t e s i m p o r t f u n c t i o n s , i m p o r t s b e i n g d i v i d e d i n t o s i x commodi ty g r o u p s . A l l e q u a t i o n s w e r e e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e p e r i o d 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 5 8 w i t h q u a r t e r l y d a t a , a l l r i g h t hand v a r i a b l e s b e i n g l a g g e d one q u a r t e r . As t h e income v a r i a b l e , t h e y c h o s e e i t h e r GNP n e t o f government wages and s a l a r y d i s b u r s m e n t o r d i s p o s a b l e i n c o m e . Ebr t h e d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e t h e y u s e d t h e w h o l e s a l e p r i c e i n d e x e x c e p t f o r t h e e q u a t i o n f o r f o o d p r o d u c t s whe re a f o o d consumer p r i c e i n d e x was p r e f e r r e d . I n some i n s t a n c e s t h e a u t h o r s a l s o m o d i f i e d t h e m o d e l by a d d i n g s u c h exogenous v a r i a b l e s as t h e non wage to wage income r a t i o o r t h e s t o c k o f t h e non f e r r o u s m e t a l s , b u t w i t h l i t t l e s u c c e s s . The e s t i m a t e d p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s r a n g e d f r o m - 0 . 2 6 t o - 3 . 5 0 and was - 0 . 5 1 f o r a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t s ; t h e i ncome e l a s t i c i t y was 0 . 9 1 f o r t o t a l i m p o r t s and was be tween 0 . 4 9 and 2 . 4 7 o t h e r w i s e . H o u t h a k k e r and Magee (1969) e s t i m a t e d e q u a t i o n (2) f o r i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s o f t w e n t y s i x c o u n t r i e s . T h e i r i ncome v a r i a b l e was GNP and t h e w h o l e s a l e p r i c e was u s e d as t h e d o m e s t i c p r i c e v a r i a b l e . M o s t p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s had t h e r i g h t s i g n , b u t w e r e i n g e n e r a l s m a l l e r t h a n o n e . F o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t h e y f o u n d an i m p o r t p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f - 0 . 5 4 , an - 7 - e x p o r t p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f 1 .51 w h i l e t h e i ncome e l a s t i c i t i e s we re 1.51 ( i m p o r t s ) and 0 .99 ( e x p o r t s ) . F o r C a n a d a , t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s were - 1 . 4 6 ( i m p o r t s ) and - 0 . 5 9 ( e x p o r t s ) and t h e income e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s we re r e s p e c t i v e l y 1 .20 and 1 . 4 1 . H o u t h a k k e r and Magee n e x t e s t i m a t e d U . S . i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s by c o u n t r y u s i n g a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s s u c h as t h e p r i c e o f a c o u n t r y ' s e x p o r t s r e l a t i v e t o t h e p r i c e o f U . S . t o t a l i m p o r t s and v i c e - v e r s a . I n o r d e r t o o b t a i n l o n g r u n e s t i m a t e s o f t he e l a s t i c i t i e s , t h e y e s t i m a t e d a f l o w a d j u s t m e n t m o d e l , t h e o p t i m a l amount o f i m p o r t s b e i n g i t s e l f d e t e r m i n e d by e q u a t i o n ( 2 ) . F i n a l l y t h e y e s t i m a t e d U . S . i m p o r t s by commodi ty c l a s s f o r w h i c h t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s r a n g e d f r o m ^ 0 . 1 8 t o - 4 . 0 5 . Kemp (1962) e s t i m a t e d t h e l i n e a r f u n c t i o n a l f o r m f o r t w e l v e g r o u p s o f i m p o r t s t o Canada f o r t h e p e r i o d 1 9 2 6 - 1 9 5 5 . M o s t o f t h e e s t i m a t e d p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s had t h e c o r r e c t s i g n b u t t h e y a l l we re s m a l l e r t h a n 2 i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e . F o r t o t a l i m p o r t s t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y was - 0 . 9 3 and t h e income e l a s t i c i t y was 0 . 9 6 . I n h i s macro m o d e l o f t h e C a n a d i a n economy, Rhomberg (1964) u s e d e q u a t i o n (1) f o r b o t h i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s . S e a s o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s w e r e added a n d t he i m p o r t e q u a t i o n a l s o i n c l u d e d an i n v e s t m e n t p r o x y as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e . The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s he o b t a i n e d w e r e o f t he o r d e r o f - 2 ( e x p o r t s ) and - 1 ( i m p o r t s ) . Many e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s o f t h e k i n d d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e u s i n g i n t e r w a r d a t a , f o u n d v e r y l o w e s t i m a t e s f o r t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f demand f o r i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s . Many e c o n o m i s t s have b e e n h e s i t a n t t o a c c e p t t h e s e e s t i m a t e s a t t h e i r f a c e v a l u e , a r g u i n g t h a t t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f i m p o r t s s h o u l d be s u b s t a n t i a l l y - 8 - h i g h e r t h a n t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f e i t h e r d o m e s t i c demand o r d o m e s t i c s u p p l y . I n d e e d , i f i m p o r t s t a k e p l a c e t o f i l l a gap be tween home demand and home s u p p l y , t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f i m p o r t s c a n b e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e f o l l o w i n g mode l where D , S and M d e n o t e r e s p e c t i v e l y d o m e s t i c demand, d o m e s t i c s u p p l y and i m p o r t s : D = D(p ) (7) S = S ( p ) M = D - S. The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f i m p o r t s c a n t h e n be e x p r e s s e d a s : (Q\ = dM P = p , dD dS , = D S_ K ' EM dp M M dp ~ dp M £ D " M E S One w o u l d t h u s e x p e c t to be c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r , i n a b s o l u t e te rms t h a n b o t h e and e . T h e r e i s however a s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e mode l u n d e r l y i n g e q u a t i o n (8) and t h o s e w h i c h a r e made i m p l i c i t l y i n d e r i v i n g ( 4 ) : i n a l l e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s t r a d e d goods we re assumed t o be non p e r f e c t s u b s t i t u t e s f o r d o m e s t i c goods w h i l e i n ( 7 ) , t r a d e d goods a r e i d e n t i c a l t o t h e home p r o d u c e d g o o d s . I n a w e l l known p a p e r , O r c u t t (1950) made f i v e o b j e c t i o n s t o t h e t r a d i t i o n a l a p p r o a c h l e a d i n g h i m t o c o n c l u d e t h a t a l l l e a s t s q u a r e e s t i m a t e s o f p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s we re b i a s e d t owa rds z e r o and t h a t new methods o f e s t i m a t i o n had to be f o u n d . O r c u t t ' s o b j e c t i o n s we re a s f o l l o w s : ( i ) E r r o r s and b i a s due t o s h i f t s i n t h e demand s u r f a c e . I f a c o u n t r y f a c e s a p o s i t i v e l y s l o p e d s u p p l y c u r v e t he e s t i m a t e d p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r i m p o r t s w i l l i n f a c t be a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e n e g a t i v e demand and t h e p o s i t i v e s u p p l y p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y , i . e . t h e demand e l a s t i c i t y w i l l be b i a s e d t o w a r d s z e r o . T h i s i s t h e f a m i l i a r W o r k i n g (1927) i d e n t i f i c a t i o n p r o b l e m . Any s h i f t i n - 9 - the demand schedule would lead to a change in both the observed price and quantity. Hence the error term of the demand equation is not independent of the price variable or the quantity of imports not explained by income, which violates the assumptions of the ordinary least square method, ( i i ) Estimation of short-run rather than long-run e l a s t i c i t i e s . If no lags are used, the estimated e l a s t i c i t i e s tend to take into account the adjustment which occurs within one period only, ( i i i ) Errors and bias due to errors of observation. The least square estimate of the price el a s t i c i t y of imports w i l l be biased towards zero unless the price and income variables are measured without error. However i f the variables are subject to large variations over the observed period, then any bias would be minimal. (iv) Errors due to aggregation. Orcutt argues that since historical price changes are largest for goods with low price e l a s t i c i t i e s , the changes in the aggregate price index are mainly due to goods with low e l a s t i c i t i e s , which corresponds to only small;'>quantity changes. This would lead to a low estimate of the price ela s t i c i t y of total import demand, (v) The price elasticity of demand for imports or exports may be larger for large price change than for small price changes. One reason for this, following Orcutt, would be the cost to the consumer or the importer involved in shifting from one supply source to another. It seems however that whether or not a large price change (e.g.- after a devaluation) leads to a proportionally larger quantity change than a small price change remains an open question.• - 10 - O r c u t t ' s v i e w s were s u p p o r t e d by a number o f a u t h o r s , M a c h l u p ( 1 9 5 0 ) , H a r b e r g e r ( 1 9 5 3 , 1957) o r N e i s s e r (1958) t o m e n t i o n a f e w . Some o f O r c u t t ' s o b j e c t i o n s however a p p e a r d e b a t a b l e , t h e l a s t one f o r i n s t a n c e , o r c o u l d b e a p p l i e d t o n e a r l y a l l e c o n o m e t r i c s t u d i e s . The f i r s t o b j e c t i o n i s more f u n d a m e n t a l . I t c a n be a r g u e d h o w e v e r , t h a t a t l e a s t f o r s m a l l c o u n t r i e s , t h e p r i c e o f t r a d e d goods c a n be c o n s i d e r e d as e x o g e n o u s , i n w h i c h c a s e t h e p r o b l e m d i s a p p e a r s . A c o n s e n s u s seems t o have emerged i n more r e c e n t y e a r s t h a t t h e l e a s t s q u a r e a p p r o a c h 2 c o u l d s t i l l b e u s e d f o r many e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s . I n t h i s t h e s i s we do n o t d i r e c t l y d e a l w i t h O r c u t t ' s o b j e c t i o n s . T h e r e a r e however a number o f o t h e r r e a s o n s why t h e t r a d i t i o n a l method t o e s t i m a t e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s i s n o t s a t i s f a c t o r y and i t i s t h e o b j e c t o f t h i s t h e s i s t o i m p r o v e t h e a n a l y s i s on t h e s e p o i n t s . F i r s t t h e r e i s t h e number o f ad hoc a s s u m p t i o n s w h i c h have b e e n made i n c h o o s i n g t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s . No t o n l y a r e many v a r i a b l e s u s e d a s p r o x y f o r o t h e r o n e s , b u t a l s o many a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s a r e i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e a n a l y s i s w i t h o u t any t h e o r e t i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n . S e c o n d l y , one may s e r i o u s l y o b j e c t to t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n ( o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n as i t s t a n d s ) i s s e p a r a b l e be tween i m p o r t e d goods and d o m e s t i c g o o d s . T h i s i s i m p l i c i t l y assumed when b o t h i m p o r t e d and d o m e s t i c goods a r e a g g r e g a t e d . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t a t any p o i n t t h e e l a s t i c i t y . o f s u b s t i t u t i o n be tween any i m p o r t e d good and any d o m e s t i c good i s t h e same. T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s even more o b j e c t i o n a b l e when s e v e r a l i m p o r t f u n c t i o n s a r e e s t i m a t e d f o r d i f f e r e n t Commodity g r o u p s s i n c e i t t h e n assumes t h a t e a c h i m p o r t i n t u r n i s s e p a r a b l e n o t o n l y f r o m a l l d o m e s t i c goods b u t a l s o f r o m a l l o t h e r i m p o r t s . The model becomes definitely confused when some goods are treated as inter- mediate products and others as f i n a l goods. Finally the estimation would be much more efficient i f instead of estimating isolated import and export functions, one estimated the whole system simultaneously. This would also allow one to impose constraints across equations (e.g. symmetry constraints). 2.2 Estimation of E l a s t i c i t i e s of Substitution between Imports .(Exports) "from (to) Different Countries The estimation of e l a s t i c i t i e s of substitution between imports or exports is often viewed as an alternative way of estimating price e l a s t i c i t i e s . Assume a production function or a u t i l i t y function with commodities x^, ... x for arguments. The Allen-Hicks e l a s t i c i t y of 3 substitution along an isocurve has been defined as: 9ln(x i/xj) CTij ~ 3ln(3x../9x.)' In competitive equilibrium, since: P. 3x. _____ 1 p. ak. ' 3 i the elasticity of substitution for movements along a two dimensional isocurve can be written as: 8ln(x./x.) a = — i j 81n(pi/pj In empirical studies, the function which has almost invariably been estimated is the logarithmic form: - 12 - x (9) l n — = a + g l n Cfl ) + u 2 p 2 where x ^ and a r e i m p o r t ( e x p o r t ) q u a n t i t i e s o f s i m i l a r c o m m o d i t i e s b u t f r o m ( t o ) d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s o r r e g i o n s , p^ and p 2 a r e t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p r i c e s and 3 i s t h e e s t i m a t e d e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n , w h i c h , i t s h o u l d be n o t e d , i s assumed t o be c o n s t a n t . Z e l d e r (1958) compared m a n u f a c t u r e d e x p o r t s o f t h e U n i t e d K ingdom w i t h t h o s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , d i v i d i n g them i n t o twen ty s e v e n g r o u p s and t w e l v e s u b g r o u p s . He l o g a r i t h m i c a l l y r e g r e s s e d b o t h x - / x 2 on P^T>2 and P ^ / P 2 o n x ^ x 2 o v e r t * i e P e r i o d 1921^1938 and c a l c u l a t e d t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n as t h e g e o m e t r i c a v e r a g e o f t h e two v a l u e s he t h u s o b t a i n e d . A l l e s t i m a t e s we re be tween - 1 . 2 and - 1 2 . 8 , b u t f o r t o t a l m a n u f a c t u r e s however h i s e s t i m a t e was p o s i t i v e , a r e s u l t he b lamed on a g g r e g a t i o n e r r o r s and t h e d i f f e r e n t c o m p o s i t i o n o f e x p o r t s o f t h e two c o u n t r i e s . Z e l d e r t h e n d i s t i n g u i s h e d be tween d e v a l u a t i o n e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n (when t h e p r i c e s o f a l l o f a c o u n t r y ' s e x p o r t s move t o g e t h e r , i . e . no o r l i t t l e s u b s t i t u t i o n be tween e x p o r t s o f one c o u n t r y ) and non d e v a l u a t i o n e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n (when a l l p r i c e s b u t one a r e h e l d c o n s t a n t ) . A s K a l i s k i (1958) p o i n t e d o u t h o w e v e r , t h e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n a r e o n l y e f f i c i e n t and u n b i a s e d i f a l l c r o s s - e l a s t i c i t i e s o f demand f o r t h e two c o u n t r y ' s e x p o r t s o f t h e same good as w e l l a s t h e income e l a s t i c i t i e s a r e 4 e q u a l , i n w h i c h c a s e i t becomes i m p o s s i b l e to d i s t i n g u i s h d e v a l u a t i o n f r o m non d e v a l u a t i o n e l a s t i c i t i e s . S u r p r i s i n g l y e n o u g h , o n l y few a u t h o r s a t t e m p t e d t o g i v e a r i g o r o u s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t o t h e e l a s t i c i t i e s t h e y had e s t i m a t e d , a l t h o u g h t h e p r o b l e m s o f e s t i m a t i n g e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n and t h e i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r f u n c t i o n a l f o rms have b e e n d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y e l s e w h e r e , e . g . , i n M o r r i s s e t (1953) o r i n G o l d b e r g e r ( 1 9 6 7 ) . F rom (9) t h e measu red e l a s t i c i t y c a n b e w r i t t e n a s : d l n ( x 1 / x ) < 1 0 ) 6 • a i n ( P l / p 2 ) • T h i s q u a n t i t y i s e q u a l t o t h e A l l e n - H i c k s e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n o n l y i f i t i s measured a l o n g an i s o c u r v e , b u t i n a l l e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s 8 i s t h e t o t a l e f f e c t r a t h e r t h a n t h e p u r e s u b s t i t u t i o n e f f e c t . F o r t h e two e f f e c t s t o b e t h e same, two c o n d i t i o n s must be s a t i s f i e d : ( i ) t h e i s o c u r v e s must b e h o m o t h e t i c ; ( i i ) i f t h e r e a r e more t h a n two goods i n t h e economy, t h e mapp ing b e t w e e n t h e two f i r s t goods must be i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e q u a n t i t i e s o r p r i c e s o f t h e o t h e r g o o d s . What t h i s i m p l i e s c a n be shown as f o l l o w s . Assume t h e r e a r e n g o o d s , x l ' X 2 ' " " " X n ' (~k e g ° ° d s a r e e i t h e r i m p o r t e d o r d o m e s t i c a l l y p r o d u c e d ) i n t h e home economy and t h a t x ^ and x - a r e s i m i l a r c o m m o d i t i e s , b u t i m p o r t e d f r o m d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s . The demand e q u a t i o n s c a n be w r i t t e n a s : (11) x.^ = x i ( p 1 , p 2 , . . . p n , y ) i = 1 , . . . n whe re y i s i ncome ( i t a l t e r n a t i v e l y c o u l d be o u t p u t ) . The b u d g e t c o n s t r a i n t h a s t o be s a t i s f i e d : p ' x - y and t h e t o t a l e f f e c t o f a change i n r e l a t i v e p r i c e s P - , / p 9 on r e l a t i v e - 14 - q u a n t i t i e s x - / x 2 c a n be w r i t t e n a s : d l n ( x - / x . ) 3 1 n ( x 1 / x 2 ) 3 1 n ( x - / x 2 ) d l n x, 3 l n ( x - / x 2 ) d l n y d l n ( p 1 / p 2 ) = 8 1 n ( P ; L / p 2 ) + * * * + 31n ^ d l n f r ^ p - ) + 31n y d l n C p . / p ^ F o r 8 = o_ 2 t o b e s a t i s f i e d , one o f t h e f o l l o w i n g r e l a t i o n s must h o l d : d ln y 3 1 n ( x - / x ) d l n ( P l / p 2 ) = 0 o r 3 l n y = ° ' i . e . e i t h e r income i s h e l d c o n s t a n t o r t h e mapp ing be tween x ^ and x 2 i s h o m o t h e t i c w h i c h i m p l i e s t h a t - a t any p o i n t t h e income e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t h e two goods a r e t h e same. F u r t h e r m o r e i f t h e r e a r e more t h a n two goods i n t h e economy i t must a l s o be t r u e t h a t : d I n x ^ 3 1 n ( x - / x 2 ) -j-z—-.—j—r- = 0 o r — — = 0 i = 3, . . . n , d l n ( p 1 / p 2 ) 31n x i i . e . t h e mapp ing be tween x ^ and x 2 must be i n v a r i a n t t o a change i n t h e q u a n t i t y x ^ o r t h e q u a n t i t y x ^ i s n o t a f f e c t e d by a change i n r e l a t i v e p r i c e ( p - / p 2 ) . B e c a u s e o f t h e a m b i g u i t i e s o f t h e measure o f a n i n d i v i d u a l s ' s e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n be tween two goods p l u s t h e c o n c e p t u a l d i f f i c u l t i e s o f communi ty i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e s , one c o u l d be tempted t o e s t i m a t e (10) w i t h o u t any r e f e r e n c e t o t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n . 6 c a n be w r i t t e n a s : - 15 - £ 1 1 " £ 2 1 + e 1 2 " £ 2 2 + + £ l n £ 2 n + n l " n 2 d l n r p - d i n " ' * d i n p^ - d i n p - d i n p^ - d i n p_ d i n pv d i n p_ d i n p d i n y l _ n • 8 In x . 8 I n x . i . , i where e . . = — - and n . = — ' i , 1 = 1 , i j 31n P j l 31n y ~ " ' n . Hence g r e d e f i n e d i s n o t a s i m p l e c o n c e p t : i t i s a comp lex f u n c t i o n o f p r i c e and income e l a s t i c i t i e s ( w h i c h i n g e n e r a l w i l l n o t be c o n s t a n t ) and i t s m e a n i n g i s r a t h e r o b s c u r e . I n a d d i t i o n , even i f a l l demand e q u a t i o n s (11) a r e known , t h e te rms d i n p ^ / d l n p_. and d i n p ^ / d l n y ( i = l , 2 ; j = l , . . . n ) a r e i n g e n e r a l unknown so t h a t 8 w i l l be i n d e t e r m i n a t e u n l e s s f u r t h e r a s s u m p t i o n s a r e made. F o r c i n g 8 t o be a c o n s t a n t , a s i t i s done i n n e a r l y a l l e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , i s much more r e s t r i c t i v e t h a n i t f i r s t a p p e a r s : i t i s e q u i v a l e n t t o a d d i n g n c o n s t r a i n t s t o t h e mode l w h i c h i n t u r n a l l o w 8 t o b e u n i q u e l y d e t e r m i n e d . From t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f 8 we h a v e : (12) d i n x x - d i n x - = 6 ( d i n p 1 - d i n p . ) and by l o g a r i t h m i c d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n o f t h e f i r s t two e q u a t i o n s i n ( 1 1 ) : d i n x.. = £. , , d i n p.. + E . - d i n p 0 + . . . £_ d i n p + r u d l n y 1 11 frl 12 2 I n n 1 (13) d i n x 2 = ^-*-n P£ + e22^n ^2 + ' ' ' e2n^n P n + n 2 C ^ n y (12) and (13) i m p l y : (14) - _ 2 1 = - £ 2 2 (=8=constant) n l = n 2 £, . =£ o . i = 3 , . . . n . I i 2 i - 16 - These are the n relations allowing 8 to be uniquely determined. They imply severe restrictions on the form of the demand functions or the underlying technology or preference map. Note that (14) are again the conditions ensuring that 8 = CT-^2* Ignoring the ambiguous character of 8, several authors have attempted to derive from i t estimates of the price ela s t i c i t y of import functions. It is well known that: ( 1 5 ) Vl<^t[> I U = U + X2 P2 ( ^ > I ii = I + + Vn ( ̂  ? which is sometimes written as: (16) W u + x 2 p 2 _ 2 1 + ... + x n p n _ n l = 0 By (14) this becomes: X2 P2 _ S V i '11 + x 2p 2 £ x-p^ + X 2 P 2 " i l or, i f a l l commodities are net substitutes: X2 p2 "11 - x l P l + x 2 p 2 " * One could thus obtain an upper bound to the actual price elasticity. This derivation follows Harberger's (1957) treatment. Zelder's (1958) formula i s essentially the same. This procedure is however hardly acceptable since i t i s not legitimate to replace (15) by (16). In (15) ( 3x^/9p-)/( P-̂ /*̂ ) I u = U i S 3 P r i c e substitution term, i.e. net of any income effect, while in (16) e „ i s the total substitution effect. - 17 - We c o n c l u d e t h i s s e c t i o n w i t h what may seem t o be t h e b e s t i n t e r - p r e t a t i o n o f g. M o r r i s s e t t (1953) showed t h a t (8+1) i s t h e measure o f t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n b e t w e e n m a r k e t s h a r e s , b u t i t does n o t g i v e any i n d i c a t i o n a b o u t a b s o l u t e v a l u e s . T h i s i s a l s o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n g i v e n 'to. 8 by J u n z and Rhomberg (1973) i n a n a l y s i n g t h e r e s p o n s e o f t r a d e f l o w s t o changes i n r e l a t i v e p r i c e s . One may s e r i o u s l y doub t a b o u t t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f any a t t e m p t t o e s t i m a t e t h e A l l e n - H i c k s e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n , e i t h e r p e r se o r i n o r d e r t o c a l c u l a t e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s . - 18 - 3 . THE MODEL 3 . 1 G e n e r a l D e s c r i p t i o n I n t h i s c h a p t e r a s y s t e m o f i m p o r t and e x p o r t f u n c t i o n s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h some u n d e r l y i n g b e h a v i o u r a l a s s u m p t i o n w i l l be d e r i v e d i n an a t t e m p t t o a v o i d some o f t h e more s e r i o u s s h o r t c o m i n g s o f t h e t r a d i t i o n a l a p p r o a c h . F o r t h i s p u r p o s e a mode l o f a c o u n t r y ' s t e c h n o l o g y w i l l be f o r m u l a t e d . I t w i l l be assumed t h a t i m p o r t and e x p o r t d e c i s i o n s a r e made by p r o f i t m a x i m i z i n g f i r m s w h i c h o p e r a t e u n d e r p e r f e c t c o m p e t i t i o n b o t h i n t h e commodi ty m a r k e t s and i n t h e f a c t o r m a r k e t s . I m p o r t s and e x p o r t s a r e t h u s c o n s i d e r e d r e s p e c t i v e l y as i n p u t s t o , and o u t p u t s o f , t h e t e c h n o l o g y . U n d e r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i t i s w e l l known t h a t t h e c o m p e t i t i v e e q u i l i b r i u m i s a l s o t h e s o l u t i o n o f m a x i m i z i n g GNP a t any p e r i o d o f t i m e s u b j e c t t o t h e t e c h n o l o g y , t h e f a c t o r endowments and a v e c t o r o f o u t p u t p r i c e s . The b e h a v i o u r a l a s s u m p t i o n u n d e r l y i n g t he mode l c a n t h e r e f o r e be w r i t t e n a s : max p ' y s . t . ( y ; x ) e T where T i s t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t , y a v e c t o r o f o u t p u t s ( i m p o r t s being considered as a negative output rather than a f i x e d i n p u t S x a v e c t o r o f d o m e s t i c f a c t o r endowments and p an o u t p u t p r i c e v e c t o r . A m u l t i p l e - i n p u t m u l t i p l e - o u t p u t t e c h n o l o g y c a n t h u s be r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i f c e r t a i n r e g u l a r i t y c o n d i t i o n s a r e me t , and s i n c e p r o f i t m a x i m i z a t i o n i s a s s u m e d , i t c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d by a t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o r a p r o f i t f u n c t i o n . T h e r e t h u s e x i s t s a d u a l i t y p r i n c i p l e be tween p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t s and p r o f i t - 19 - functions similar to that which exists between production functions and cost functions. If one or more goods or factors are considered to be fixed, the dual of the production possibility set becomes a variable profit function. The variable profit function is the formulation adopted in this thesis to describe the technology, largely because of the similarities with the conventional model of international trade, i.e. because output prices can be taken as exogenous and quantities of primary factors are assumed to be fixed in the short run. This model should therefore improve the analysis relatively to the traditional approach in the following way: (i) A coherent and complete system of output supply (including import demand) equations w i l l be derived and estimated simultaneously. ( i i ) By using a very flexible functional form, no a p r i o r i assumption on separability or on the degree of complementarity or substitut- a b i l i t y between goods or factors w i l l have to be made, ( i i i ) No ad hoc assumption w i l l have to be made in the choice of particular variables and no supplementary explanatory variable w i l l have to be introduced without theoretical justification, (iv) The framework is well suited to studying the effect of changes in various government policy parameters such as t a r i f f s , taxes on intermediate inputs and f i n a l outputs. The analysis, however, w i l l s t i l l be subject to at least three of Orcutt's objections. (i) A l l output prices w i l l be taken as exogenous. To make them endogenous would require a general equilibrium model which is - 20 - beyond the scope of this thesis. Another way to avoid any bias would be to use'instrumental variables, but their choice would be somewhat arbitrary. Regarding imports and exports, i t w i l l therefore be assumed that Canada is a small open economy and acts like a price-taker.^ ( i i ) The model w i l l only estimate short run demand and supply functions. Optimization is assumed to be instantaneous. This impact model, as i t could be characterized, i s s t i l l of considerable interest. Moreover the choice of a particular lag structure would be arbitrary, since our theoretical framework makes no allowance for i t . ( i i i ) The aggregation problem is s t i l l present. Current econometric techniques do not allow us to disaggregate beyond ten to fifteen goods. 3.2 The Variable Profit Function: Some Concepts in Duality Theory. The concept of the variable profit function was i n i t i a l l y introduced by Samuelson (1953-54) and has been discussed by Gorman (1968), Diewert (1973),,1974a) and Lau (1974a) among others. This whole section w i l l be based on Diewert (1973, 1974a) to whom the reader is referred for a proof of the theorems and lemmas. Henceforth we w i l l denote variable inputs or outputs by y^, i = 1, I (y_̂  is positive i f an output, negative otherwise), fixed inputs or out- puts (positive and negative respectively) by x_. , j=l, ... , J, prices of variable quantities by p. and prices of fixed quantities by w.. The - 21 - v e c t o r o f t h o s e q u a n t i t i e s o r p r i c e s w i l l be d e n o t e d by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l e t t e r , b u t w i t h o u t s u b s c r i p t . The e c o n o m y ' s f e a s i b l e s e t o f i n p u t s and o u t p u t s i s d e n o t e d by T and i s c a l l e d t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t . The f o l l o w i n g a s s u m p t i o n s 8 a r e made o n T : 1 . 1 . T i s a c l o s e d , non empty s u b s e t o f I + J d i m e n s i o n a l s p a c e . 1 . 2 . T i s a c o n v e x s e t . 1 . 3 . i f z ' e T , z " < z ' , t h e n z " e T . 1 . 4 . i f ( y ; x ) ^ e t T ^ c t h e n t h e - componen ts ; o f y a r e ibo i inded . f rom above f o r x f i x e d . The v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n i s t h e n d e f i n e d a s : where p » 0 . When T s a t i s f i e s 1.1 t o 1.4 and p >> 0,n i s w e l l d e f i n e d and s a t i s f i e s t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n d i t i o n s : 1 1 . 1 I I ( p ; x ) i s a r e a l e x t e n d e d f u n c t i o n d e f i n e d f o r a l l p >> 0 and any x . 1 1 . 2 I I ( p ; „ ) i s homogenous o f d e g r e e one i n p . 1 1 . 3 n ( p ; x ) i s c o n v e x i n p f o r e v e r y f i x e d x . 1 1 . 4 n ( p ; x ) i s c o n c a v e i n x f o r e v e r y f i x e d p . 1 1 . 5 I I ( p ; x ) i s i n c r e a s i n g o r d e c r e a s i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o p , d e p e n d i n g r e s p e c t i v e l y . II.6 I I (p ;x ) i s i n c r e a s i n g o r d e c r e a s i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o x d e p e n d i n g m a x y { p ' y : ( y ; x ) e T , p » 0} -°° i f no y e x i s t s s u c h t h a t ( y ; x ) e T on w h e t h e r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g good i s a v a r i a b l e o u t p u t o r i n p u t o n w h e t h e r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g good i s a f i x e d i n p u t o r o u t p u t r e s p e c t i v e l y . - 22 - The p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t T c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o II c a n be d e f i n e d a s : T = { ( y ; x ) : p ' y < n ( p ; x ) f o r e v e r y p >> 0 } . When II s a t i s f i e s I I . 1 t o I I . 6 , t h e n T so d e f i n e d w i l l s a t i s f y 1 .1 t o 1 .4 and t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o T w i l l c o i n c i d e w i t h II. I f t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n II ( p ; x ) s a t i s f i e s ( I I ) and i s i n a d d i t i o n d i f f e r e n t i a b l e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e components o f p a t p * >> 0 and x * , t h e n : T h i s r e s u l t i s known as H o t e l l i n g ' s (1932) lemma and i s a n a l o g o u s t o S h e p h a r d ' s (1953) lemma w h i c h a p p l i e s t o c o s t f u n c t i o n s . F i n a l l y , i f n ( p ; x ) i s d i f f e r e n t i a b l e a t p * >> 0 and x * w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e components o f x , t h e n : 8 I I ( p * ; x * ) * , . — - = w ( p * ; x * ) , j where w.. i s t h e shadow p r i c e o f f i x e d q u a n t i t y x ^ . Upon f o r m u l a t i n g a f u n c t i o n a l f o r m f o r t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o d e r i v e t h e s y s t e m o f demand and s u p p l y e q u a t i o n s f o r t h e v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s by a p p l y i n g H o t e l l i n g ' s lemma. I n a d d i t i o n we w i l l assume t h a t f i r m s a l s o o p t i m i z e w i t h r e s p e c t to t h e f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s ( e . g . f i x e d f a c t o r s a r e m o b i l e be tween f i r m s ) and h e n c e t h e shadow p r i c e o f t h o s e q u a n t i t i e s w i l l be ' e q u a l t o t h e i r ma rke t p r i c e . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s r e q u i r e d i n o r d e r t o j u s t i f y a g g r e g a t i o n o v e r f i r m s and i n d u s t r i e s . We w i l l t h u s o b t a i n a s y s t e m o f s u p p l y o r demand e q u a t i o n s and o f m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t i v i t y r e l a t i o n s w h i c h c a n be e s t i m a t e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . - 23 - 3 . 3 F u r t h e r T h e o r e t i c a l C o n c e p t s . I n o r d e r t o d e s c r i b e t h e e s t i m a t e d t e c h n o l o g y , f a m i l i a r c o n c e p t s s u c h as e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o r p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s w i l l be u s e d . F o r a p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n F , t h e A l l e n (1938) p a r t i a l e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n be tween X . and X . i s d e f i n e d a s : i J siVh i F i i ' CT1J X , X i | F | where F, = 3 F / 3 X , , F i s t h e b o r d e r e d H e s s i a n o f F and F . . i s t h e c o f a c t o r h h ' I J o f 3 F / 3 X . 3 X . i n l . l . 1 3 I f t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n i s n o m o t h e t i c , Uzawa (1962) h a s shown t h a t t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i o n c a n a l s o be w r i t t e n i n t e rms o f t h e u n i t c o s t f u n c t i o n C(w) a s : CC.. cr = i j C C . i 3 2 where C . = 3C /3w . and C . = 3 C / 3 w . w . . i I i j l j D i e w e r t (1974a) e x t e n d e d t h i s c o n c e p t t o t h e c l a s s o f v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n s by d e f i n i n g : ( i ) an e l a s t i c i t y o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n be tween v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s i and h : n ( p * ; x * ) 3 2 ( p * ; x * ) / 3 p . 3 p 0 ( p * ; x * ) = — i , h = l , . . . I [ 3 n ( p * ; x * ) / 3 P i ] [ 3 n ( p * ; x * ) / 3 p h ] 0., i s t h u s a n o r m a l i z a t i o n o f 3 y . / 3 p . , where 0.. i s c h o s e n xh J I h l h i n v a r i a n t t o t h e u n i t o f measurement and 0., = 0, .. l h h i ( i i ) a n e l a s t i c i t y o f c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y be tween f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s j and k ; ilfM].#i1„llf BllHIIiiilMlllH - 24 - n(p*;x*)92n(p*;x*)/3x.3x^ 0. (p*;X*) = : —rrr. ^ j k ' "[3n(p*;i*)7^3x jTr3n(p*;x*)^^^ j ' k = 1 ' J ( i i i ) an elasticity of intensity between variable quantity i and fixed quantity j : n(p*;x*) 32n(p*;x*)/3p.3x. i=l, ... I 4)..(p*;x*) = — J 1 J [3n(p*;x*)/3 P i] [3n(p*;x*)/9 X j] j=l, ... J The partial price e l a s t i c i t i e s of the variable quantities can be defined as: -ib - 8p h y. i , h=l, The inverse partial price elasticity for fixed inputs i s : 3w. x^ n. i = T - * 1 - — j , k=i, ... J jk 8 x k w j and similarly: Sy. x. ?i_ ^ i - i , ... i j - i , 3w p j i 3p. w. i J i- = 1, ... I j=l, 9 Finally the following relations hold: i h l h h h i l = c./v. = p. ./s. where = P^y^/n is variable output i's share of national product, and V. = x._./H is fixed input i's share of national product. 3 3 3 r 25 - 3.4 Two S t e p O p t i m i z a t i o n . I n t h e c a s e where two o r more v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s a r e s e p a r a b l e f r o m t h e r e m a i n i n g q u a n t i t i e s , ^ t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n p r o c e s s c a n be decomposed i n t o two s t e p s a s f o l l o w s . Assume t h a t t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n f u n c t i o n c a n be w r i t t e n r a s : t ( y 1 ) = t ( y 2 ; x ) where y , d e n o t e s t h e v e c t o r o f t h e v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s w h i c h i s w e a k l y s e p a r a b l e f r o m t h e o t h e r goods and y i s t h e v e c t o r o f t h e r e m a i n i n g v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s . The v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n t h e n b e c o m e s : n ( P ; x ) = ] y l ' y 2 1 " 1 " 2 1 - y l t ^ 1 > 2 ~ - 0 ' 2 i - 2 - 0 0 i f no y ^ » y 2 e x i s t s u c h t h a t t ( y . ) = t (y |> ;x ) The f o l l o w i n g s u b f u n c t i o n c a n now be d e f i n e d : RCp-.z) = max tp.J_y.j_: z=t(y x), p 1 » 0} y l z _ i s a scalar.»Xthe;̂ aggregat*er.of.: theEy^s) , - -R i s r f c h e a r e v e n U e - f u n c t i o n and i f t i s homogenous o f d e g r e e o n e , we may w r i t e : R ( p - ; z ) = z r ( p - ) . The o r i g i n a l p r o f i t m a x i m i z a t i o n p r o b l e m now becomes : m a X z y * Z ^ p i ) + p 2 y 2 : "~ ''1' = t ^ 2 ' X ^ ' P 2 > > - ^ n ( p ; x ) = -°° i f no z y 2 , e x i s t s u c h t h a t ?-[YZ} = t ( y 2 ; x ) n ( r ( p 1 ) , p 2 ; x ) - 26 - 4 . FUNCTIONAL FORM AND ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE. 4 . 1 The T r a n s l o g V a r i a b l e P r o f i t F u n c t i o n . The t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n a l f o r m w i l l be u s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s t o e s t i m a t e t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n . The t r a n s c e n d e n t a l l o g a r i t h m i c f u n c t i o n a l f o r m h a s b e e n j p r o p o s e d b y s e v e r a l a u t h o r s as a p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n and has s u b s e q u e n t l y b e e n s u g g e s t e d as a s e c o n d o r d e r a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o any \ t w i c e c o n t i n u o u s l y d i f f e r e n t i a b l e p r o d u c t i o n o r c o s t f u n c t i o n by I C h r i s t e n s e n , J o r g e n s o n and L a u ( 1 9 7 1 ) . B e c a u s e o f i t s q u a d r a t i c c h a r a c t e r , no a p r i o r i restrictions on t h e v a l u e o f t h e v a r i o u s e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n a r e i m p o s e d . A s e c o n d o r d e r a p p r o x i m a t i o n a t t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t o f t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n It = n ( p ; x ) can be o b t a i n e d b y t h e l o g a r i t h m i c T a y l o r s e r i e s e x p a n s i o n : l n n - l n n ( 0 ) + I |isS_ l n p . + i | i 2 _ n l n x _ 4 3 l n p . r i 4 9 l n x . j 2 2 , 1 v y.-'3 i n n , , . 1 I V v 8 i n n » , + 2 H 3 l n p . 9 l n p h l n p i l n p h + 1 a r n x . S l n ^ l r a c j l n a i k 2 V v 3 l n n n , I I a i n p . 3 l n x . l n p i  l n Xj' l 3. l 2 w h i c h c a n be w r i t t e n more c o n v e n i e n t l y a s : I n Ji = aQ + I a. I n p . + \lhih l n p . l n p h + I 6. l n x . + | n*jk lnxj ln\ + Ty <5ij l n p . l n x . - 27 - where o b v i o u s l y = = Y ^ - - d ^ = <J> • I f t h e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d a s a f u n c t i o n a l f o r m p e r s e , t h e e q u a l i t i e s = Y ^ a n d <j>., = <f> a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y s a t i s f i e d , b u t may be imposed w i t h o u t any J K KJ l o s s o f g e n e r a l i t y . " ^ By d e f i n i t i o n t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n i s l i n e a r homogenous i n 3 p r i c e s ; i n thej t r a n s l o g c a s e , we must t h e r e f o r e have (see D i e w e r t (1974a)); ( i ) I <*. = 0 ^ ( i i ) I Y ± h = 0 ( i i i ) 1 ^ = 0 i i i J I n a d d i t i o n , i f t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n i s a l s o homogenous o f d e g r e e one i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s , t h e n we must h a v e : ( i ) •/_ B, = 0 ( i i ) I <f> = 0 ( i i i ) I <5 = 0 H e n c e f o r t h l i n e a r h o m o g e n e i t y i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s w i l l be imposed 12 s i n c e o u r d a t a have b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h i s a s s u m p t i o n . A s s u m i n g t h a t t h e t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n s a t i s f i e s a t l e a s t l o c a l l y c o n d i t i o n s ( I I ) , H o t e l l i n g ' s lemma c a n b e a p p l i e d : s (p*.x*) _ -£2 31n I I ( p * ; x * ) y y V P ' X ; I I ( p * ; x * ) 31np . a i ^ Y i h i n p h j i j j w h e r e , b e c a u s e o f t h e l i n e a r h o m o g e n e i t y i n p r i c e s , J S . = 1 . i The m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t i v i t y r e l a t i o n s a r e d e r i v e d s i m i l a r l y a s : w * x * W X  - - - «-nu _p- ? _- , _ + - k and b e c a u s e o f l i n e a r h o m o g e n e i t y i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s , £ V. = 1 . j 3 F o r t h e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n a l f o r m , t h e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y and i n t e n s i t y a r e : y.-L. + S . S , Y . J + S . ( S . - 1) fl - '.- h 1 h 4 ^ fl _ i i i i 9 i h ~ S . S , ' ^ h 9 i i ~2 i h " S . l - 28 - a = i ^ k j k V . V , J k *kk+ v \ - 1 } k k 5 , . + S . V . ^ = ^ S i V _ 4 . 2 R e g u l a r i t y C o n d i t i o n s ; The t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n does n o t , i n g e n e r a l , s a t i s f y r e g u l a r i t y c o n d i t i o n s ( I I ) . I n s t e a d i t w i l l be n e c e s s a r y t o v e r i f y t h a t t h o s e c o n d i t i o n s do i n d e e d h o l d o v e r t h e o b s e r v e d r a n g e o f p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s . M o n o t o n i c i t y r e q u i r e s : ^ y ( s i g n y±) S ± > 0 i = l , . . . I ( s i g n x ) V > 0 j = l , . . . J T h i s c a n e a s i l y be v e r i f i e d f o r e a c h o b s e r v a t i o n . The a d d i n g up p r o p e r t y t he S s h a r e s w i l l g u a r a n t e e l i n e a r h o m o g e n e i t y i n p r i c e s i f symmetry i s a l s o i m p o s e d . F i n a l l y t h e c u r v a t u r e c o n d i t i o n s have t o be v e r i f i e d : t he v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n must be c o n v e x i n p r i c e s and c o n c a v e i n f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s . A n e c e s s a r y and s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n i s t h a t t h e H e s s i a n n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e . Or a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e m a t r i x o f t h e e l a s t i c i t i e s t r a n s f o r m a t i o n [y ] has t o be p o s i t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e and t he m a t r i x o f t he e l a s t i c i t i e s o f c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y [<f>] n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e . The 2 H e s s i a n 9 n / 9 p . 9 p c a n i n d e e d be w r i t t e n a s : - 29 - H = n p' c p where C = T H + S ^ - I ) Y 1 2 + S l S . . Y 2 1 + S 1 S 2 Y 2 2 + S 2 ( S 2 - 1 ) . . . Y 2 _ + S Y I 1 + S I S 1 ^12 T l 2 S f S I S 2 Y I I + V S l and C h a s t o be p o s i t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e as w e l l , i . e . y ' C y > 0 f o r any y e R I f D i s a I by I m a t r i x o f f u l l r a n k , t h e r e e x i s t s an x i n R. f o r any y s u c h t h a t y = D X and t h e r e f o r e : t x ' D ' C D x > 0 f o r any x e R Now i f D i s d e f i n e d a s : D = 1/S± 0 . 0 1 / S , 0 0 0 . . . 1 / S , D i s i n d e e d o f f u l l r a n k and D,' C D = [0 ] i s p o s i t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e . A s i m i l a r p r o o f a p p l i e s t o [a ] w h i c h i s n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e i f and 2 o n l y i f t h e H e s s i a n 3 I l / 3 x ^ 3 x ^ i s n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e . I t i s c o n v e n i e n t t o compute t h e e i g e n v a l u e s o f b o t h m a t r i c e s and v e r i f y t h a t , f o r e a c h o b s e r v a t i o n , t h e y a l l a r e n o n - n e g a t i v e and n o n - p o s i t i v e r e s p e c t i v e l y . r 3 0 - L a u ( 1 9 7 4 a , b ) and J o r g e n s o n (1973) s u g g e s t e d a p r o c e d u r e w h i c h makes i t p o s s i b l e t o impose t h e c o r r e c t c u r v a t u r e a t t h e e x p a n s i o n 2 p o i n t . The H e s s i a n 3 n / 3 p ^ 3 p ^ o f t h e t r a n s l o g p r o f i t f u n c t i o n a t t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t can be w r i t t e n a s : H = e°o C A t t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t : C = Y U + a ^ - 1 ) y 1 2 + axa2 Y 2 1 + a 2 a 1 Y n + a I a 1 Y 2 2 + a 2 ( a 2 - l ) Y I 2 + aza2 Y 1 I + K i a i Y 2 I + a . a . Y I I + a I ( a I " 1 ) S i n c e any p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t e m a t r i x i s C h o l e s k i d e c o m p o s a b l e , C c a n be w r i t t e n a s : C = T D T ' where T i s a u n i t l o w e r t r i a n g u l a r m a t r i x and D i s a d i a g o n a l m a t r i x . F u r t h e r m o r e f o r C t o be p o s i t i v e ( n e g a t i v e ) s e m i - d e f i n i t e , a n e c e s s a r y and s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n i s t h a t a l l d i a g o n a l e l e m e n t s o f D - t h e C h o l e s k i v a l u e s - a r e p o s i t i v e ( n e g a t i v e ) . W r i t i n g t h e s e e l e m e n t s as 2 (+) d ^ ^ , i t i s t h u s p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e t h e mode l ( u s i n g non l i n e a r t e c h n i q u e s ) i m p o s i n g t he c o r r e c t c u r v a t u r e c o n d i t i o n s a t t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t . - 31 - 4.3 Technological Change. It is desirable to allow technological change to take place and the absence of such changes in the technology is a hypothesis which should be tested. Several authors, in particular Jorgenson ( 1 9 7 4 ) , have suggested introducing e*" as an additional fixed input into the profit function. Time is thus treated as an additional fixed input, the rental price of which is zero. Appelbaum and Harris (19>74) used t as the extra input. Their treatment is therefore essentially the same as Jorgenson's, but i t requires, (using the translog functional form) an arbitrary 14 normalization of the time variable. Instead of using the notion of a missing input, we w i l l allow directly for factor augmenting disembodied technological progress, both at the input level and at the output level. Let us redefine our variables by specifying an exponential rate of technological change: q. = p. e ^±t 1 = 1 , ... I and y =0 i I I v. = x. e i 1 = 1 , . . . J 3 3 X j is thus the observed fixed input quantity while v i s the augmented quantity. Similarly p^ i s the observed price of variable output i while q^ is the price of the augmented output. Only I+J-l of the coefficients can be independent which requires the normalization of one coefficient. This contrasts with the usual one output model where the normalization is made implicitly on the output. - 32 - I n t e rms o f i t s augmented c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n b e c o m e s : l n n(q;v) = aQ + I a _ L ( l n p 1 - y ± t ) + \ H Y i h ( l n p . - y . t ) ( l n p h - V ) + I B j C l n X j + X.t) + | | | < j > j k ( l n X j + X.t) ( l n ^ + X f c t ) + £ | 6 ± j ( l n p ± - y . t ) ( l n x + X t ) . T h i s c a n a l s o be w r i t t e n a s : l n n ( q ; v ) = C * q + I a± l n p ± + - | lh±h l n p ± l n P h + I B. l n x . + | l ^ j k l n x . l n ^ + H 6 . . l n p . l n x . + S t t + £ S ± t l n p . t + I * . t l n X j t + | t t t t 2 where & t = "I a . y ± + I B X i t L r i h h 4 x j j r j t L • i j x 4 Y j k k T t t xh x h 4 i , i - j k -j k __ - L J f ^ . j Note t h a t l i n e a r h o m o g e n e i t y o f t h e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n i n b o t h p r i c e s and f i x e d i n p u t i m p l i e s t h a t : •'(*> -'I 5 i t = 0 f o r I Y ± h = 0 and l& = 0 , \f h , j i i i ( i i ) I <p = 0 f o r I 6 = 0 and I*. » 0 , V j , k . •-. 33 - <5. and <f>. can be r e w r i t t e n a s : i t Y j t 6 i t - \l - V + X V A_ "X J> h = l j = l J J • . t - - X f i - J c i , i ' * i , i ) + X * J f c ( x k - x J ) and s i m i l a r l y : e t = "j) a i ( ^ i " V + J ^ 3 <xj " V " + AJ 1=1 J = l J J I f one e s t i m a t e s o n l y t h e ^ ^ t ' s a n d t h e <f>j t's, i t i s o n l y p o s s i b l e t o s o l v e f o r I +'J - 2 c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y f o r I - 1 t e r m s y . - u and J - 1 te rms X. - X . E s t i m a t i n g B w o u l d i i 2 y t a l l o w t o s o l v e f o r X w h i l e t h e l a s t c o e f f i c i e n t has t o be n o r m a l i z e d . J F i n a l l y , (J> w o u l d have t o be c o n s t r a i n e d . T h i s f o r m u l a t i o n i s t h u s s i m i l a r t o i n t r o d u c i n g e*" as a f i x e d i n p u t e x c e p t f o r t h e c o n s t r a i n t • 15 on <j>tt. The s h a r e e q u a t i o n s now become: S. -̂ M̂ - a. + 1 Y.xlnp. + I 6 . . l n x . + 6 . t = ^ l l n p v l ^ l h h i j 2 - t n I V . = = B. + I 6 , . . l n p . + J d>M l n x , + <f>. t = - J - 1 j 9 1 n x j J ^ 1 J k K T j t n I n a d d i t i o n , we c a n d i f f e r e n t i a t e II w i t h r e s p e c t t o t : 9 Inn 8 — = a + J 6 . l n p , + I <j>. l n x . + <j> t t t L i t * i L r j t j T t t where measu res t h e p e r c e n t a g e change i n p r o f i t s due t o t e c h n o l o g i c a l '.•y a t c h a n g e . A l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e s h a r e e q u a t i o n s c a n be w r i t t e n a s : - 34 - s _1M_ = V i a n d v =MsIL = _iL_i i 31nq . n j 31nv . II i J where s ^ = y_^ e ^ i * " and = w^ e 3*" a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y t h e u n o b s e r v e d shadow v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s and f i x e d q u a n t i t y p r i c e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o q . and v . . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , t e c h n o l o g i c a l change c a n b e s a i d t o be H i c k s n e u t r a l when: ( i ) y . = y ,Vi ( i i ) X. - X , Vj b u t i t i s n o t n e c e s s a r y t h a t y = X^ I f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s H i c k s n e u t r a l , t h e <5 ' s , <}> , ' s and d> ^ a r e a l l z e r o ( i n a d d i t i o n i n t h e . i t j t t t a b s e n c e o f any t e c h n o l o g i c a l change 8.. i s z e r o as w e l l ) . M o r e o v e r i f t h e S ^ t ' s and d> .̂̂ *ss a r e a l l z e r o t h e n t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , . i f a n y , i s n e c e s s a r i l y H i c k s n e u t r a l . " ^ A l t e r n a t i v e l y we c o u l d have d e f i n e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l change u s i n g e x p o n e n t i a l f a c t o r s o f t h e t y p e y ^ and X ^ . E x c e p t f o r g f c and <|> t t, t h i s i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e u s e o f t i m e as an a d d i t i o n a l f i x e d i n p u t , as i n Appe lbaum and H a r r i s (1974) and t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e s t h e a r b i t r a r y n o r m a l i z a t i o n o f t . 4 . 4 S t o c h a s t i c S p e c i f i c a t i o n and E s t i m a t i o n T e c h n i q u e . A l l e s t i m a t i o n s have been made by c o m p u t i n g maximum l i k e l i h o o d e s t i m a t o r s u s i n g an a l g o r i t h m w h i c h a l l o w s f o r t h e mode l t o be n o n l i n e a r i n t he p a r a m e t e r s . The l o g a r i t h m o f t h e l i k e l i h o o d f u n c t i o n i s m a x i m i z e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o a l l p a r a m e t e r s i n t h e s y s t e m and w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e c o v a r i a n c e m a t r i x fi-. - ' ' " - ; • - 35 - Assuming a j o i n t normal d i s t r i b u t i o n of the disturbances, we w i l l use the l i k e l i h o o d r a t i o test to v e r i f y various hypotheses. The l i k e l i - hood r a t i o i s the r a t i o of the l i k e l i h o o d maximized under the n u l l hypothesis to the l i k e l i h o o d maximized under the alternative hypothesis. 2 Minus twice the logarithm of this r a t i o i s asymptotically x distributed, the number of degrees of freedom being equal to the number of additional constraints required by the alternative hypothesis. I t i s assumed that IT i s an exact representation of the actual tech- nology and that any deviation of the shares S's and V's from the p r o f i t maximizing (cost minimizing) shares are random. A vector of random disturbances e' = (e_ , ... e.I£j")_) such that ? e. = 0 and T I T t I t ' 't' . L i t I+J 1=1 \ e = 0 i s thus specified. The e's are assumed to be i d e n t i c a l l y distributed normal random vectors with mean vector zero and covariance matrix Q. The disturbances are thus allowed to be contemporaneously correlated (the covariance between the error term of a variable quantity share equation and the error term of a fixed quantity share equation may be non zero), but they are specified as temporally independent. Since both tihe_S and the V shares sum up to one, fi w i l l be singular and two equations (one for the variable quantities one for the fixed quantities) may be dropped. The estimation however does not depend on which two equations are dropped. - 36 - 5 . EMPIRICAL RESULTS 5 . 1 A g g r e g a t e M o d e l The t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n was e s t i m a t e d w i t h y e a r l y d a t a t o d e s c r i b e t h e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy, 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 . The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s we re i n c l u d e d i n t h e m o d e l : ( i ) v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t i e s 1 . i I m p o r t s (M) 2 . i E x p o r t s (X) 3 . C'Taxat ion on i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s (T) 4 . I n v e s t m e n t + f i n a l s t o c k o f i n v e n t o r i e s ( I ) 5 . C o n s u m p t i o n + Government p u r c h a s e s (C) ( i i ) f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s 1 . L a b o u r s e r v i c e s (L) 2 . C a p i t a l S e r v i c e s + i n i t i a l s t o c k o f i n v e n t o r i e s (K) A l l d a t a a r e d e s c r i b e d and r e p o r t e d i n t h e a p p e n d i x . I t may seem u n u s u a l t o have i n c l u d e d t a x a t i o n on i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s as a v a r i a b l e i n p u t . T h i s i s howeve r n e c e s s a r y f r o m a n a c c o u n t i n g p o i n t o f v i e w s i n c e most i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s a r e t a x e d and t h u s r e p r e s e n t a c o s t t o t h e p r i v a t e b u s i n e s s s e c t o r j u s t l i k e any o t h e r i n p u t . S i m i l a r l y , t h e i n i t i a l s t o c k o f i n v e n t o r i e s e n t e r t h e p r o d u c t i v e p r o c e s s a l o n g w i t h o t h e r i n p u t s and t h e i r v a l u e i s a c o s t t o t h e i n d u s t r y . They a r e t h u s c o n s i d e r e d as a f i x e d i n p u t and f o r c o n v e n i e n c e were a g g r e g a t e d w i t h c a p i t a l . F i n a l i n v e n t o r i e s we re i n c l u d e d s i n c e t h e y a r e a n o u t p u t o f t h e p r o d u c t i v e p r o c e s s and t h e i r v a l u e i s a r e v e n u e t o t h e i n d u s t r y . I t i s assumed t h a t t h e q u a n t i t y o f f i n a l i n v e n t o r i e s i s a c h o i c e v a r i a b l e and t h a t t h e i r p r i c e i s e x o g e n o u s . The mode l was i n i t i a l l y e s t i m a t e d a f t e r d i s a g g r e g a t i n g i m p o r t s and 18 e x p o r t s i n t o f o u r c l a s s e s e a c h . The r e s u l t s however t u r n e d o u t t o be d i s a p p o i n t i n g s i n c e t h e own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e - 37 - q u a n t i t i e s ( e x p o r t s o f raw m a t e r i a l s , e x p o r t s o f f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s a n d , f o r some o b s e r v a t i o n s , i m p o r t s o f raw m a t e r i a l s ) had t h e wrong s i g n . I n a d d i t i o n many e l a s t i c i t i e s were e x t r e m e l y u n s t a b l e o v e r t i m e . T h i s may be e x p l a i n e d by t h e p r e s e n c e o f v e r y s m a l l s h a r e s : any d e v i a t i o n f r o m t h e a c t u a l s h a r e s becomes r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e and t h i s a f f e c t s d i r e c t l y t h e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n and t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s . F i n a l l y t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f o b t a i n i n g c o n v e r g e n c e i n a s y s t e m o f e l e v e n s i m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t i o n s and t h e c o s t o f t h i s e x e r c i s e w o u l d have made i t v e r y i m p r a c t i c a l t o p r o c e e d w i t h a mode l o f t h i s s i z e . We d e c i d e d t h e r e f o r e t o use i n s t e a d t h e s e v e n good mode l ( a g g r e g a t e d i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s ) a n d , a s s u m i n g s e p a r a b i l i t y o f i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , t o e s t i m a t e s e p a r a t e l y an i m p o r t c o s t f u n c t i o n and an e x p o r t r e v e n u e f u n c t i o n . I t i s t h u s assumed t h a t o p t i m i z a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e i n two s t e p s . I n t h e f i r s t s t e p , t he o p t i m a l i m p o r t m i x and t h e o p t i m a l e x p o r t m i x a r e d e t e r m i n e d as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e s o f t h e v a r i o u s i m p o r t o r e x p o r t t y p e s . I n t h e s e c o n d s t e p t h e o p t i m a l q u a n t i t y o f a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t s and a g g r e g a t e e x p o r t s a r e d e t e r m i n e d t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e o p t i m a l d o m e s t i c o u t p u t m i x . E s t i m a t i n g t h e s e v e n good mode l w i t h o u t t e c h n i c a l change (Mode l 1 ) , we d r o p p e d t h e c o n s u m p t i o n and t h e c a p i t a l e q u a t i o n s and were l e f t w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g s y s t e m : » « m m s l al Y _ l Y 1 2 Y 1 3 Y 1 4 Y 1 5 6 1 1 812 l n p 1 S 2 a2 Y 1 2 Y 2 2 Y 2 3 Y 2 4 Y 2 5 6 2 1 &22 l n p 2 S 3 __ a3 Y 1 3 Y 2 3 Y 3 3 Y 3 4 Y 3 5 6 3 1 6 3 2 l n p 3 S 4 Y 1 4 Y 2 4 Y 3 4 Y 4 4 Y 4 5 \l' 6 4 2 l n P 4 V l h 6 I 1 6 2 - i 6 3 1 6 4 1 6 5 1 • l l * 1 2 l n p 5 m m m l n x ^ l n x 0 ~ 38 - The re a r e 40 p a r a m e t e r s i n t h e s y s t e m . S i n c e some o f t h e y ' s and 6 ' s a p p e a r more t h a n once t h e y have t o be r e s t r i c t e d t o a u n i q u e v a l u e w h i c h i m p o s e s 10 " s y m m e t r y " c o n s t r a i n t s . I n a d d i t i o n , s i n c e t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n i s l i n e a r homogenous i n p r i c e s by d e f i n i t i o n , t h e s h a r e e q u a t i o n s a r e homogenous o f d e g r e e z e r o i n b o t h p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s . T h i s l e a d s t o ,10 a d d i t i o n a l " h o m o g e n e i t y " c o n s t r a i n t s , l e a v i n g us 20 p a r a m e t e r s t o e s t i m a t e . I n o r d e r t o a l l o w f o r t h e c u r v a t u r e c o n s t r a i n t s t o be i m p o s e d a t a l a t e r s t a g e , t h e m a t r i x [y ] was w r i t t e n a s : Y = C - B where C h a s b e e n e x p l a i n e d i n s e c t i o n 4 . 3 above and B i s o f t h e f o r m : B = a - C o ^ - l ) a a 2 a 2 a± a l a I a 2 ( a 2 ~ l ) . . ®2ai a_ a 1 a a . . . a (a - 1 ) w h i l e , m a k i n g use o f t h e C h o l e s k i d e c o m p o s i t i o n , C i s w r i t t e n a s ; C = TDT' = t n 1 • • • 0 hi fcI2 d- 0 . 0 0 1 t 0 21 1 0 . t . T h i s t r a n s f o r m a t i o n does o b v i o u s l y n o t a f f e c t t h e number o f f r e e p a r a m e t e r s i n t h e s y s t e m . T h e i r v a l u e s a r e r e p o r t e d i n t a b l e I, co lumn 1 . - 39 - We next tested the homogeneity and the symmetry hypotheses. The model was therefore reestimated without imposing the corresponding r e s t r i c t i o n s . The s t a t i s t i c s of the li k e l i h o o d r a t i o tests are reported i n table I I I . Either hypothesis, and the j o i n t hypothesis as w e l l , were rejected. Symmetry and homogeneity are however imposed i n the remaining part of th i s thesis as a maintained hypothesis. I t may appear surprising to use as a maintained hypothesis a hypothesis wbich has just been rejected by a test. However i t i s clear that both symmetry and homogeneity are part of our theoretical framework. Although symmetry could be dropped for instance i f we merely wished to have estimates of ordinary price e l a s t i c i t i e s , i t cannot i f we want to model substitution p o s s i b i l i t i e s . Moreover i f symmetry were dropped, the demand and supply equations would not be integrable, i . e . there would not exist a primitive function from which they can be derived and the model would be based on nearly no theory. Clearly a better theory i s desired and our tests c a l l for i t , but i t would be pointless i n the meantime to reject our theory i n favour of no theory at a l l . F i n a l l y , i t may also be argued that i t may be desirable to force the world into an a p r i o r i theoretical model i n order to p a r t i a l l y overcome errors i n variables as well as to make abstractions of many of the economy's complexities i n order to be able to discuss anything at a l l . Calculating the f i t t e d shares, the various e l a s t i c i t i e s were computed and we found that the own e l a s t i c i t i e s of transformation of the investment and the consumption variables had consistently the wrong sign. The estimated p r o f i t function therefore could not be convex i n prices, although i t was concave i n fixed quantities. This led us to make a non- parametric test on our data and i t appeared that, with only very few - 40 - e x c e p t i o n s , f o r any y e a r t , o u r d a t a we re c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p r o f i t m a x i m i z - 19 a t i o n f o r y e a r s p r e c e e d i n g t , b u t n o t f o r y e a r s s u b s e q u e n t t o t . One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s w o u l d be t h e p r e s e n c e o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s . The mode l was t h e r e f o r e r e e s t i m a t e d a l l o w i n g t h e t e c h n o l o g y t o s h i f t o v e r t i m e (model 2 ) . T h e r e were t h i s t i m e 25 f r e e p a r a m e t e r s , t h e v a l u e s o f w h i c h a r e r e p o r t e d i n co lumn 2 o f t a b l e I. T a b l e I I summar i zes t h e s t a t i s t i c s f o r b o t h m o d e l 1 and 2 ; M o d e l 1 a l l o w s f o r H i c k s n e u t r a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l change o n l y ( w i t h t h e a b s e n c e o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change as a s p e c i a l c a s e w h i c h c a n n o t be t e s t e d f o r i n o u r f ramework s i n c e B._ i s n o t e s t i m a t e d ^ ; ) M o d e l 2 a l l o w s f o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l change o f a more g e n e r a l n a t u r e , b u t i n c l u d e s H i c k s n e u t r a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l change a s a s p e c i a l c a s e ( i . e . m o d e l 1) w h i c h c a n be t e s t e d f o r . T e s t i n g f o r H i c k s n e u t r a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i n t h i s r s e n s e ( i . e . t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s b e i n g t h e p r e s e n c e o f u n c o n s t r a i n e d d i s e m b o d i e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e ) , t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e 20 h y p o t h e s i s was r e j e c t e d . I n t h e r e m a i n i n g p a r t o f t h i s t h e s i s , t h e t e c h n o l o g y i s a l l o w e d t o s h i f t o v e r t i m e i n a way t o a f f e c t t h e demand and s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s . L i k e m o d e l 1 , mode l 2 f u l f i l l e d t h e m o n o t o n i c i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s . I n a d d i t i o n a l l own e l a s t i c i t i e s had t h e r i g h t s i g n and t h e r e f o r e a p p e a r e d e c o n o m i c a l l y m e a n i n g f u l . A f t e r c o m p u t i n g t h e e i g e n v a l u e s o f t h e [ y J and [(pj m a t r i c e s , we f o u n d however t h a t t h e v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n a g a i n was n o t c o n v e x i n p r i c e s , a l t h o u g h as b e f o r e i t was c o n c a v e i n f i x e d i n p u t s . R e c a l l i n g t h a t c o n v e x i t y i n p r i c e s i s i m p l i e d by t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f p r o f i t m a x i m i z a t i o n , i t was d e s i r a b l e t o r e e s t i m a t e t h e mode l i m p o s i n g c o n v e x i t y a t t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t by t h e C h o l e s k i d e c o m p o s i t i o n (model 2 C ) . The v a l u e s o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f m o d e l 2C - 41 - a r e r e p o r t e d i n t h e l a s t co lumn o f t a b l e I. The s t a t i s t i c s o f t h e s y s t e m a r e a g a i n summar i zed i n t a b l e I I . M o n o t o n i c i t y was f u l f i l l e d a g a i n f o r e a c h o b s e r v a t i o n , and t h e e s t i m a t e d v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n was now c o n v e x i n p r i c e s f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 4 8 , 1 9 5 3 - 5 4 , 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 and ^-21 1 9 6 1 - 6 2 . T a b l e s V and V I c o n t a i n t h e e s t i m a t e d e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n and p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s . F i n a l l y t h e v a l u e s o f t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l p a r a m e t e r s y ^ and \ we re c a l c u l a t e d . S i n c e t h e s h a r e e q u a t i o n s sum up t o o n e , i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y a l l y ' s and X ' s 22 i n d i v i d u a l l y and t h e y a r e r e p o r t e d i n t a b l e IV as d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f s f - o r v s c o n s u m p t i b n ^ . g g o d s s a n d ' c c a p i t a l i g o o d s r e s p e c t i v e l y . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o compare o u r e s t i m a t e s o f i m p o r t and e x p o r t p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s w i t h t h o s e o f o t h e r a u t h o r s . I m p o r t s seem t o be more p r i c e e l a s t i c ( e , „ , f r o m - 2 . 7 i n 1948 t o - 2 . 5 i n 1972) t h a n i s o f t e n MM t h o u g h t t o be t h e c a s e . E x p o r t s , t hough l e s s p r i c e e l a s t i c t h a n i m p o r t s (e r a n g i n g f r o m 2 . 4 i n 1948 t o 1 .7 i n 1972) n e v e r t h e l e s s a p p e a r t o be 23 q u i t e s e n s i t i v e t o p r i c e changes as w e l l . T h i s r e s u l t may be due p a r t l y t o t h e f a c t t h a t i n o u r mode l d o m e s t i c o u t p u t i s more d i s a g g r e g a t e d t h a n i n most o t h e r e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , a l t h o u g h i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s a r e s t i l l a g g r e g a t e d . L o o k i n g a t t h e c r o s s e l a s t i c i t i e s , t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t h a t e x p o r t s and i n v e s t m e n t goods a r e complements i n p r o d u c t i o n , mean ing t h a t an i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e o f one o u t p u t , a l l o t h e r p r i c e s and £he f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s h e l d c o n s t a n t , l e a d s t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e o t h e r o u t p u t . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , e x p o r t and c o n s u m p t i o n g o o d s , as w e l l a s i n v e s t m e n t goods and c o n s u m p t i o n g o o d s , a r e s u b s t i t u t e s i n p r o d u c t i o n , i . e . an i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e o f one o u t p u t w o u l d y i e l d a d e c r e a s e i n the p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e o t h e r o u t p u t . S i m i l a r l y , i t a p p e a r s t h a t b o t h - 42 - exports and investment goods are intensive in imports, meaning that an increase in the price of either output, other prices and a l l fixed quantities being held constant, would lead to an increase (in absolute terms) in the quantity of imports. Alternatively, an increase in the price of imports would yield a decrease in the output of either exports or investment goods, but an increase i n the output of consumption goods. Turning towards fixed inputs, capital and labour are obviously substitutes for each other, but interestingly enough, the el a s t i c i t y of substitution between labour and capital is very close to 1 and is extremely stable over time. Not surprisingly i t appears that an increase in either labour or capital would lead to an increase of both consumption goods and investment goods. More surprising is the result that an increase i n the capital stock would actually lead to an absolute f a l l i n exports and in imports, or i n other words, that either a f a l l in the price of imports or a raise i n the price of exports would actually lower the rate of return to capital. The implication is that an increase in the quantity of labour would yield a more than proportional increase • _ 24 m either imports or exports. It i s tempting to define the relative factor intensity of an output according to the relative effect of a change in the corresponding output price on factor rental prices. That i s , variable quantity i w i l l be said to be relatively labour (capital) intensive i f an increase i n the price of i would lead to a proportionally higher increase i n the return to labour (capital) than in the return to capital (labour). By this definition, exports appear to be relatively labour intensive. Similarly imports appear to be relatively capital intensive. To a much smaller 43 - e x t e n t , c o n s u m p t i o n goods a r e f o u n d t o be r e l a t i v e l y c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e and i n v e s t m e n t goods a p p e a r t o be r e l a t i v e l y l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e . R e c a l l t h a t we f o u n d e a r l i e r t h a t i n v e s t m e n t goods we re a l s o i n t e n s i v e i n i m p o r t e d g o o d s . C o n c e r n i n g t a x e s o n i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s , i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e s e t a x e s and i m p o r t s a r e complements i n p r o d u c t i o n . C o n s u m p t i o n goods a r e t a x i n t e n s i v e f o r a b o u t h a l f o f t h e o b s e r v e d p e r i o d ; i ; e . , f o r 1948 and f r o m 1962 o n , b u t i n v e s t m e n t goods a r e i . n o t . E x p o r t s however a p p e a r t o be t a x i n t e n s i v e , w h i c h may seem somwhat s u r p r i s i n g s i n c e t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e p r o d u c t s e n t e r i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f e x p o r t s a r e 25 exempted f r o m t a x e s . T a k i n g o u r r e s u l t s a t t h e i r f a c e v a l u e , a d e c r e a s e i n t h e r a t e o f t a x a t i o n on i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s w o u l d l e a d t o i n c r e a s e d i m p o r t s , and t o a h i g h e r o u t p u t o f e x p o r t s and c o n s u m p t i o n goods w h i l e o u t p u t o f i n v e s t m e n t goods w o u l d d e c r e a s e . The r a t e o f r e t u r n t o l a b o u r w o u l d i n c r e a s e b u t b e c a u s e o f t h e r e l a t i v e c a p i t a l i n t e n s i t y o f t a x a t i o n , t h e r a t e o f r e t u r n t o c a p i t a l w o u l d a c t u a l l y d e c r e a s e . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e t i m e c o e f f i c i e n t s , i t a p p e a r s t h a t , on t h e i n p u t s i d e , t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s i s r e l a t i v e l y l a b o u r s a v i n g . On t h e o u t p u t s i d e , t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s b i a s e d , r e l a t i v e l y a g a i n s t t h e o u t p u t o f c o n s u m p t i o n g o o d s , i n f a v o u r o f i n v e s t m e n t goods and a g a i n s t i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s . T h a t i s , compared t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f c o n s u m p t i o n g o o d s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s i n v e s t m e n t good augmen t i ng and i m p o r t s a p p e a r t o be more a f f e c t e d by t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s t h a n e x p o r t s . - 44 - 5 . 2 Impor t and E x p o r t S u b m o d e l s . Two s e p a r a t e submode ls were e s t i m a t e d , one f o r i m p o r t s ( t r a n s l o g c o s t f u n c t i o n ) and one f o r e x p o r t s ( t r a n s l o g r e v e n u e f u n c t i o n ) . B o t h i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s w e r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o f o u r c a t e g o r i e s : 1 . L i v e a n i m a l s , f o o d , f e e d , b e v e r a g e s and t o b a c c o . 2 . C rude m a t e r i a l s , i n e d i b l e . 3 . F a b r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s j i n e d i b l e . 4-. End p r o d u c t s , i n e d i b l e . We have t w o . s e p a r a t e s y s t e m o f f o u r e q u a t i o n s and f o r e s t i m a t i o n p u r p o s e s , t h e end p r o d u c t e q u a t i o n was d r o p p e d i n e a c h s y s t e m . A f t e r i m p o s i n g symmetry and h o m o g e n e i t y , t h e r e a r e 9 p a r a m e t e r s t o be e s t i m a t e d i n e i t h e r s y s t e m . L i k e i n t h e a g g r e g a t e m o d e l , t h e [y] m a t r i c e s o f b o t h submode ls were C h o l e s k i • d e c o m p o s e d and o u r r e s u l t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n t a b l e V I I i n t e rms o f t h e e l e m e n t o f t h e m a t r i c e s T and D. We n e x t t e s t e d b o t h submode ls f o r symmetry and h o m o g e n e i t y . The r e s u l t s o f t h e t e s t s a r e r e p o r t e d i n t a b l e I X . A s i t t u r n e d o u t t h e h o m o g e n e i t y h y p o t h e s i s c o u l d n o t b e r e j e c t e d f o r t t h e i m p o r t submode l a l t h o u g h i t was f o r t h e e x p o r t c a s e . The symmetry h y p o t h e s i s however was r e j e c t e d i n t h e i m p o r t c a s e , b u t c o u l d n o t be r e j e c t e d i n t h e e x p o r t s u b m o d e l . I n t h e r e m a i n i n g e s t i m a t i o n s h o w e v e r , b o t h symmetry and h o m o g e n e i t y w i l l be imposed as p a r t o f o u r m a i n t a i n e d h y p o t h e s e s . F rom i n s p e c t i o n o f t he own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s o f c r u d e m a t e r i a l s o f b o t h m o d e l s , i t a p p e a r e d t h a t t h e c u r v a t u r e c o n d i t i o n s w e r e s a t i s f i e d i n n e i t h e r c a s e . We a t t e m p t e d t o a l l o w f o r H i c k s n e u t r a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i n c l u d i n g t h e c o s t f u n c t i o n ( o r t h e r e v e n u e f u n c t i o n as t h e c a s e may b e ) , b u t t h i s l e d t o o n l y l i t t l e imp rovemen t . - 45 - We t h e n r e e s t i m a t e d b o t h submode ls i m p o s i n g n e g a t i v e and p o s i t i v e s e m i - d e f i n i t n e s s b y c o n s t r a i n i n g t h e s i g n o f t h e e l e m e n t s o f D (submode ls MC and X C ) . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p a r a m e t e r s and t h e s t a t i s t i c s o f t h e two s y s t e m s a r e r e p o r t e d i n t a b l e V I I and i n t a b l e V I I I r e s p e c t i v e l y . T a b l e s X and X I c o n t a i n t h e e s t i m a t e d e l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n and s u b s t i t u t i o n and t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g to submode l s MC and X C . A l l own e l a s t i c i t i e s have c o r r e c t s i g n f o r e a c h o b s e r v a t i o n . B o t h t h e c o s t f u n c t i o n and t h e r e v e n u e f u n c t i o n s a t i s f y t h e m o n o t o n i c i t y c o n d i t i o n s o v e r t h e r a n g e o f o b s e r v e d p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s . R e g a r d i n g t h e c u r v a t u r e c o n d i t i o n s we f o u n d t h a t t h e i m p o r t s u b s y s t e m i s c o n c a v e f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 1 , 1966 and 1 9 7 2 . The e x p o r t submode l s a t i s f i e s t h e c o n v e x i t y c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 5 1 - 6 2 , 1 9 6 4 , 1 9 6 7 - 6 9 and 1 9 7 2 . F o r b o t h i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , i t a p p e a r s t h a t most components a r e s u b s t i t u t e s f o r e a c h , o t h e r s . I n e i t h e r c a s e h o w e v e r , f o o d and f a b r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s , as w e l l a s c r u d e m a t e r i a l s and end p r o d u c t s , a r e complements i n p r o d u c t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , i m p o r t s o f f o o d p r o d u c t s and o f c r u d e m a t e r i a l s a r e complements a s w e l l , b u t o n l y f r o m 1959 o n . The own p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r mos t c o m p o n e n t s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r I m p o r t s b u t a l s o f o r e x p o r t s o f c r u d e m a t e r i a l s and o f f a b r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s , a r e q u i t e s m a l l . We have t o remember , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h o s e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s a r e p a r t i a l e l a s t i c i t i e s i n t h e s e n s e t h a t t h e y were e s t i m a t e d h o l d i n g a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s c o n s t a n t , w h i l e i n t h e a g g r e g a t e m o d e l , i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s we re a l l o w e d t o v a r y . - 46 - 6. CONCLUSIONS It would appear that this alternative approach to the estimation of import and export functions,proposed in this thesis, i s very promising. Not only are the import and export functions derived within a more general and more rigorous theoretical framework, but one obtains a much, larger variety of information about imports and exports, namely how they relate to other aggregates of the economy. Thus we found that exports and investment goods were complements in production and that they were both import intensive. We also found that imports were capital intensive and exports labour intensive, to the point actually where an exogenous increase of the capital stock would result i n a f a l l of both imports and exports. A f a l l in the price of imports would thus lead to an increase i n the rental price of labour while i t would lower in absolute terms the rental price of capital. The opposite would be true i f the price of exports f e l l . The own price e l a s t i c i t i e s of imports and exports appear to be somewhat higher than i t i s usually thought. Disaggregating traded goods, we found evidence of complementarity i n production, and this holds both for imports and for exports, between food products and fabricated materials on one hand, and between crude materials and end products on the other hand. Factor augmenting technological change in a multi-input multi- output framework has been .modelled. Hicks neutral technological change was included as a special case which was tested for and rejected. We found that technological change was labour saving and investment goods augmenting and that i t affected exports less than the other outputs. The model also allows for the effects of changes in various government - 47 - policy parameters to be readily calculated, e.g. changes i n t a r i f f s or intermediate taxes. Indirect taxes on intermediate products were e x p l i c i t l y dealt.with, and we found that a decrease i n these taxes would lead to an increase i n both imports and exports. I t should be recalled that t h i s model i s es s e n t i a l l y short-run i n nature: optimization i s assumed to be instantaneous and prices are taken as exogenous. The main assumption on:which the model i s based, i. e . perfect competition and p r o f i t maximization are of course very r e s t r i c t i v e , but are very common both i n empirical studies and i n the pure theory of international trade. The further use of subsystems would allow us to disaggregate the model even more and keep i t s theoretical consistency. A separability assumption i s however required each time. In some cases this may not be desirable and i t then would be preferable to disaggregate only one or two sectors at a time. Thus i t would be of interest to disaggregate somewhat the labour sector or the c a p i t a l sector and test whether a l l labour or c a p i t a l components are separable from the remaining inputs and outputs of the economy, i n which case they can be aggregated. I f they are not separable, one could determine for instance which imports or exports i f increased are most l i k e l y to lead to an increase i n the demand for a p a r t i c u l a r type of labour or which c a p i t a l component, i f increased, may lead to a decrease i n imports or an increase i n exports. In the non separable case, aggregation could then only be carried out without errors i f Hicks' Aggregation Theorem applied. The construction of price and quantity components of Canadian foreign trade has revealed some of the d i f f i c u l t i e s of building time - 48 - series on a consistent classification basis. We nevertheless believe that the series which were compiled in this study represent actual trends in Canadian external trade. The price series we constructed at the section level for imports and exports appear to be the only subaggregate series of Canadian foreign trade covering the entire post war period. At a time when there i s i n Canada a concerted effort to construct time series for various domestic variables, we hope that this study w i l l f i l l a gap and w i l l be a useful data base for further research in international trade and the testing of neoclassical production theory. - 49 - T a b l e I. P a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s o f t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n f o r a g g r e g a t e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 ( s t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r a n t h e s e s ) . P a r a m e t e r M o d e l 1 M o d e l 2 M o d e l 2C a 1 - 0 . 1 6 1 ( 0 . 0 0 3 ) - 0 . 1 5 4 ( 0 . 0 0 3 ) - 0 . 1 5 4 ( 0 . 0 0 3 ) a 2 0 . 1 6 0 ( 0 . 0 0 4 ) 0 . 1 4 3 ( 0 . 0 0 4 ) 0 .144 ( 0 . 0 0 4 ) a 3 - 0 . 0 4 1 ( 0 . 0 0 1 ) - 0 . 0 3 9 ( 0 . 0 0 1 ) - 0 . 0 3 9 ( 0 . 0 0 1 ) a 4 0 . 3 4 2 ( 0 . 0 0 6 ) 0 . 3 5 1 ( 0 . 0 0 4 ) 0 . 3 4 9 ( 0 . 0 0 5 ) h 0 .576 ( 0 . 0 0 3 ) 0 . 5 6 3 ( 0 . 0 0 3 ) 0 . 5 6 5 ( 0 . 0 0 4 ) - 0 . 5 4 3 ( 0 . 1 5 7 ) - 0 . 6 8 2 ( 0 . 1 6 4 ) - 0 . 7 7 4 ( 0 . 1 7 8 ) Hi 0 . 0 8 4 ( 0 . 0 3 7 ) 0 . 0 1 9 ( 0 . 0 3 7 ) 0 . 0 1 9 ( 0 . 0 4 7 ) t 3 2 - 1 , 5 0 4 ( 1 9 . 7 5 6 ) 5 . 3 7 7 ( 4 8 . 6 5 7 ) - 0 . 3 9 0 ( 0 . 5 3 7 ) fc41 - 0 . 7 7 9 ( 0 . 1 8 1 ) - 0 . 5 1 9 ( 0 . 1 4 7 ) - 0 . 4 9 3 ( 0 . 1 8 3 ) fc42 1 9 . 8 7 1 ( 2 7 0 . 7 0 1 ) - 5 . 6 8 3 ( 4 7 . 2 3 1 ) 0 . 5 0 9 ( 1 . 4 4 0 ) fc43 1 7 . 3 0 8 ( 5 3 4 . 0 2 7 ) - 0 . 8 6 5 ( 1 . 3 6 0 ) 2 . 5 3 3 ( 1 1 . 2 7 0 ) d l 0 . 4 5 4 ( 0 . 0 7 0 ) 0 . 4 0 9 ( 0 . 0 6 6 ) 0 . 6 5 2 ( 0 . 0 5 6 ) d 2 0 . 0 0 9 ( 0 . 1 2 1 ) - 0 . 0 1 3 ( 0 . 1 1 5 ) 0 . 3 3 8 ( 0 . 1 9 5 ) d 3 0 . 0 1 5 ( 0 . 2 7 0 ) 0 . 3 8 1 ( 3 . 3 5 9 ) 0 . 1 1 9 ( 0 . 1 4 3 ) d 4 8 . 9 8 5 ( 2 5 5 . 3 9 5 ) 0 . 0 5 9 ( 0 . 1 2 6 ) - 0 . 0 0 0 0 2 ( 2 5 0 5 8 ) 6 11 0 . 0 1 1 ( 0 . 0 2 2 ) - 0 . 1 3 2 ( 0 . 0 4 0 ) - 0 . 1 2 1 ( 0 . 0 4 8 ) - 0 . 0 7 8 ( 0 . 0 3 4 ) 0 . 2 2 8 ( 0 . 0 5 6 ) 0 . 1 7 4 ( 0 . 0 7 0 ) 8 31 - 0 . 0 0 8 ( 0 . 0 0 6 ) - 0 . 0 5 7 ( 0 . 0 1 1 ) - 0 . 0 6 3 ( 0 . 0 1 6 ) 6 41 0 .076 ( 0 . 0 3 8 ) - 0 . 0 4 0 ( 0 . 0 5 5 ) 0 . 0 1 6 ( 0 ; 0 8 3 - 50 - T a b l e I, c o n t i n u e d . • l l *lt * 2 t *3t * 4 t * 6 t N o t e : f o r m o d e l 2 C , t h e v a l u e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o d ^ , d^, d^ and d ^ a r e 120 ( 0 . 0 1 5 ) 0 . 0 5 8 ( 0 . 0 4 2 ) 0 . 0 1 3 ( 2 . 3 7 6 ) - - 0 . 0 0 5 ( 0 . 0 0 1 ) - 0 . 0 0 5 ( 0 . 0 0 1 ) - 0 . 0 0 8 ( 0 . 0 0 2 ) 0 . 0 0 7 ( 0 . 0 0 2 ) - - 0 . 0 0 2 ( 0 . 0 0 0 3 ) - 0 . 0 0 2 ( 0 . 0 0 0 5 ) - - 0 . 0 0 2 ( 0 . 0 0 2 ) - 0 . 0 0 0 3 ( 0 . 0 0 3 ) - 0 . 0 0 5 ( 0 . 0 0 1 ) 0 . 0 0 4 ( 0 . 0 0 2 ) e s t i m a t e s f o r + . / | d ^ - 51 - T a b l e I I . S t a t i s t i c s o f t h e a g g r e g a t e m o d e l . M o d e l 1 M o d e l 2 M o d e l 2C E q u a t i o n 2 2 _2 DW R DW R DW R I m p o r t s (M) 0 . 5 3 6 1 .608 0 . 6 4 8 1 .475 0 . 6 4 2 1 .462 E x p o r t s (X) 0 . 4 0 8 0 . 3 2 4 0 . 8 1 0 1 .398 0 . 7 6 1 1 .089 I n d . T a x a t i o n (T) 0 . 3 9 9 0 . 9 3 6 0 . 6 1 8 1 .235 0 . 1 2 6 0 . 7 3 8 I n v e s t m e n t ( I ) - 0 . 1 9 9 0 . 9 1 3 0 . 7 7 5 0 . 9 9 5 0 .606 0 . 6 1 8 L a b o u r (L ) 0 . 8 3 3 0 .667 0 . 9 2 1 1 .535 0 . 8 6 8 0 . 9 1 8 T a b l e I I I . T e s t s t a t i s t i c s , a g g r e g a t e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 . 2 T e s t R e s t r i c t i o n s C r i t i c a l V a l u e • x ( 0 . 0 1 ) Homogene i t y 10 2 3 . 2 1 1 1 5 . 7 1 4 S y m m e t r y ( c o n d i t i o n a l on homog. ) 10 2 3 . 2 1 7 3 . 9 8 6 Homogene i t y & Symmetry 20 3 7 . 5 7 1 8 9 . 7 0 0 T e c h n o l o g i c a l change 5 1 5 . 0 9 9 1 . 6 5 8 T e c h . c h a n g e , c o n v e x i t y imposed 5 1 5 . 0 9 7 4 . 4 6 2 - 52 - Table IV. R a t e s o f e x p o n e n t i a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a n g e , a g g r e g a t e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 (Mode l 2 C ) . y M " y c = -0.072 A - X -= 0.182 L K \~ y c = -0.132 M T " Y = -0.291 y i " y c = OOC033 T a b l e V. E l a s t i c i t i e s o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y and i n t e n s i t y f o r s e l e c t e d y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 , a g g r e g a t e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy (model 2C) E l a s t i c i t y 1948 1955 1961 11967 "1972 0 MM 1 7 . 2 3 0 1 7 . 2 2 6 1-7.811 1 4 . 0 3 5 1 2 . 7 8 1 0 MX 1 3 . 9 4 0 1 4 . 1 3 2 1 4 . 7 9 4 1 0 . 4 1 9 9 . 1 1 6 0 MT 1 .246 1 .283 1 .296 1 .229 1 .203 0 MI 3 . 5 3 3 3 . 7 2 2 3 . 8 8 5 3 . 4 2 0 3 . 3 1 6 0 MC - 1 . 0 3 6 - 0 . 9 6 7 - 0 . 9 7 5 - 0 . 7 1 0 - 0 . 5 9 0 0 XX 1 6 . 1 5 8 1 6 . 7 1 5 1 7 . 7 8 6 1 0 . 6 5 9 8 .744 0 XT 7 .456 8 .516 8 . 9 2 8 6 . 7 4 6 6 . 0 0 9 0 XI 3 . 9 1 0 4 . 1 7 4 4 . 3 8 2 3 . 6 6 5 3 . 5 0 0 - 53 - Table V, continued. XC TT 'TI TC II 'IC 'CC 'LL 'LK KK ML MK rXL rXK TL TK lit II IK CL CK -2.105 18.336 -0.293 0.058 1.413 -0.890 0.753 -0.991 1.001 -1.011 2.528 -0/544 3.306 -1.329 3.692 -1.720 1.082 0.917 0.981 1.019 -2.045 20.163 -0.594 -0.044 1.683 -0.962 0.720 -0.850 1.001 -1.178 2.420 -0.672 3.175 -1.561 3.870 -2.380 1.082 0.904 0.983 1.020 -2.074 20.516 -0.696 -0.052 1.840 -0.999 0.705 -0.772 1.001 -1.297 2.390 -0.802 3.141 -1.775 3.822 -2.658 1.081 0.895 0.984 1.020 -1.500 19.173 -0.511 0.033 1.768 -0.997 0.718 -0.674 1.001 -1.485 2.120 -0.662 2.620 -1.404 3.413 -2.581 1.075 0.888 0.985 1.022 -1.278 18.476 -0.462 0.090 1.860 -1.021 0.711 -0.607 1.001 -1.649 2.008 -0.661 2.429 -1.355 3.198 4-2.621 1.074 0.878 0.986 1.024 - 54 - T a b l e V I , e, n» S and p e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r s e l e c t e d y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 , a g g r e g a t e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e economy (model 2 C ) . E l a s t i c i t y 1948 1955 1961 1967 1972 EMM - 2 . 7 1 9 - 2 . 7 1 9 - 2 . 7 5 0 - 2 . 5 4 2 - 2 . 4 6 9 e MX 2 . 0 9 3 2 .091 2 . 1 3 0 1 .873 1 .783 £ MT - 0 . 0 5 8 - 0 . 0 5 2 - 0 . 0 5 1 - 0 . 0 5 3 - 0 . 0 5 5 E M I 1 . 3 7 3 1 .346 1 .355 1 .212 1 .151 G MC - 0 . 6 8 9 - 0 . 6 6 6 - 0 . 6 8 3 - 0 . 4 9 0 - 0 . 4 1 1 S X M - 2 . 2 0 0 4 2 . 231 - 2 . 2 8 4 - 1 . 8 8 7 - 1 . 7 6 1 exx 2 . 4 2 6 2 . 4 7 3 2 . 5 6 1 1 .916 1 . 7 1 0 - 0 . 3 4 5 - 0 . 3 4 3 - 0 . 3 5 1 - 0 . 2 9 3 - 0 . 2 7 5 £ x i 1 .519 1 .509 1 .528 1 .299 1 .215 £xc - 1 . 4 0 1 - 1 . 4 0 8 - 1 . 4 5 4 - 1 . 0 3 5 - 0 . 8 9 0 e TM - 0 . 1 9 7 - 0 . 2 0 2 - 0 . 2 0 0 - 0 . 2 2 3 - 0 . 2 3 2 e TX 1 .120 1 .260 1 .285 1 .213 1 .175 e TT - 0 . 8 4 8 - 0 . 8 1 3 SO:. 806 - 0 . 8 3 2 - 0 . 8 4 5 e T I - 0 . 1 1 4 - 0 . 2 1 5 - 0 . 2 4 3 - 0 . 1 8 1 - 0 . 1 6 1 e TC 0 . 0 3 9 - 0 . 0 3 0 - 0 . 0 3 7 0 . 0 2 3 0 . 0 6 3 e IM - 0 . 5 5 8 - 0 . 5 8 7 - 0 . 6 0 0 - 0 . 6 1 9 - 0 . 6 4 1 e I X eo .587 v .0.618 0 . 6 3 1 0 . 6 5 9 0 . 6 8 5 e IT 0 . 0 1 4 0 . 0 2 4 0 . 0 2 7 0 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 2 1 e I I 0 . 5 4 9 0 .609 0 . 6 4 2 0 .627 0 .646 E I C - 0 . 5 9 2 . - 0 . 6 6 3 - 0 . 7 0 0 - 0 . 6 8 8 - 0 . 7 1 1 £ C M 0 . 1 6 3 0 . 1 5 3 0 . 1 5 1 0 . 1 2 9 0 . 1 1 4 E C X - 0 . 3 1 6 - 0 . 3 0 3 - 0 . 2 9 9 - 0 . 2 7 0 - 0 . 2 5 0 - 55 - TABLE VI, continued CT E CI E CC \L \K nKL nKK M̂L ?MK ^XL ?XK ?TL ^TK 5_L ?IK 5CL ?CK PLM PLX PLT P L I PLC PKM PKX p KT V- PKC -0.003 -0.346 0.501 -0.498 0.498 0.503 -0.503 1.270 -0.270 1.661 -0.661 1.856 -0.856 0.544 CO/456 0.493 0.507 -0.399 -0'.496 -0.171 0.420 0.653 0.086 -0.200 0.080 0.356 0.678 0.002 -0.348 0.496 -0.460J 0.460 0.541 -0.541 1.309 -0.309 1.717 -0.717 2.093 -1.093 0.585 0.415 0.532 0.468 -0.382 0.470 -0.156 0.391 0.677 0.106 -0.231 0.096 0.327 0.702 0.002 -0.348 0.494 -0.436 0.436 0.565 -0.565 1.349 -0.349 1.773 -0.773 2.158 -Oi.158 0.610 0.390 0.556 0.444 -0.369 • 004452 -0.150 0.377 0.690 0.124 -0.256 0.104 0.312 0.715 -0.001 -0.353 0.496 -0.403 0.403 0.598 -0.598 1.266 -0.266 1.565 -0.565 2.039 -1.039 0.642 0.358 0.588 0.412 -0.384 00.471 -0.148 0.381 0.680 0.120 -0.252 0.112 0.315 0.706 -0.004 -0.355 0.495 -0.378 0.378 0.623 -0.623 1.250 -0.250 1.512 -0.512 1.990 -0.990 0.668 0.332 0.613 0.387 -0.388 0.475 -0.146 0.373 0.686 0.128 -0.265 0.120 0.305 0.713 - 56 - T a b l e V I I . P a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s o f t r a n s l o g c o s t and r e v e n u e f u n c t i o n s f o r C a n a d i a n f o r e i g n t r a d e 1948-^1972 ( a s y m p t o t i c s t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r a n t h e s e s ) . P a r a m e t e r M o d e l MC M o d e l XC a l 0 . 094 ( 0 . 0 0 4 ) 0 . 1 8 1 ( 0 . 0 1 2 ) a 2 0 .106 ( 0 . 0 1 1 ) 0 . 2 0 6 ( 0 . 0 1 0 ) a 3 0 .236 ( 0 . 0 1 0 ) 0 . 4 3 0 ( 0 . 0 2 0 ) fc21 0 . 0 3 1 ( 2 . 2 6 9 ) - 0 . 6 6 2 ( 0 . 1 9 4 ) fc31 1 .061 ( 4 . 0 8 0 ) 0 . 4 8 0 ( 0 . 2 6 3 ) t 3 2 - 3 . 5 0 7 ( 4 1 . 1 3 0 ) - 3 . 5 8 2 ( 3 6 . 8 1 9 ) + 0 . 1 5 1 ( 0 . 1 7 4 ) - 0 . 5 3 8 ( 0 . 0 5 6 ) + - 0 . 0 8 6 ( 0 . 4 4 6 ) - 0 . 1 0 6 ( 0 . 5 7 3 ) + 0 . 0 0 9 ( 7 2 . 1 2 9 ) 0 . 0 3 1 ( 2 4 . 3 8 7 ) T a b l e V I I I . S t a t i s t i c s o f i m p o r t and e x p o r t s u b m o d e l s . I m p o r t s E x p o r t s 2 2 E q u a t i o n Rr: DW R DW F o o d , e t c . (1) 0 . 2 0 7 0 . 2 6 3 0 . 7 2 0 0 . 6 4 7 Crude m a t e r i a l s (2) 0 . 1 4 0 0 . 0 9 3 0 . 5 9 8 0 . 2 4 8 F a b r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s (3) - 0 . 7 2 1 0 . 0 6 9 0 . 2 2 1 0 . 2 5 5 - 57 - T a b l e I X . T e s t s t a t i s t i c s , C a n a d i a n f o r e i g n t r a d e 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 . T e s t R e s t r i c t i o n s C r i t i c a l V a l u e ( 0 . 0 1 ) I m p o r t s Homogene i t y S y m m e t r y ( c o n d i t i o n a l on homog. ) Homogene i t y & Symmetry 3 3 6 1 1 . 3 4 1 1 . 3 4 1 6 . 8 1 9 .304 1 3 . 1 0 0 2 2 . 4 0 4 E x p o r t s Homogene i t y Symmetry ( c o n d i t i d n a - l l o n f hbmogs) ) Homogene i t y & Symmetry 3 3 6 1 1 . 3 4 1 1 . 3 4 1 6 . 8 1 1 6 . 7 0 4 1 1 . 4 5 6 2 8 . 1 6 0 - 58 - T a b l e X . E l a s t i c i t i e s o f s u b s t i t u t i o n and t r a n s f o r m a t i o n f o r s e l e c t e d y e a r s 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 , C a n a d i a n f o r e i g n t r a d e . E l a s t i c i t y 1948 1955 1961 1967 1972 a M 11 - 2 . 8 7 6 - 2 . 8 2 2 3 2 . 5 7 5 - 2 . 4 9 7 - 2 . 7 1 9 M°12 0 .216 0 . 1 4 5 - 0 . 0 7 0 - 0 . 1 0 4 - 0 . 0 1 1 M a ! 3 - 0 . 9 1 5 - 0 . 9 6 9 - 1 . 0 8 9 - 1 . 1 2 3 - 1 . 0 3 7 M a l 4 0 . 906 0 . 9 0 5 0 . 8 9 9 0 . 8 9 7 0 . 9 0 3 M a 2 2 - 1 . 4 8 9 - 1 . 3 0 6 - 0 . 6 5 9 - 0 . 5 9 4 - 0 . 7 1 9 M 0 2 3 1 .004 1 .004 1 .005 1 .005 1 .005 M a 2 4 - 0 . 1 1 4 - 0 . 1 5 8 - 0 . 2 8 5 - 0 . 2 9 4 - 0 . 2 7 3 M°33 - 2 . 1 5 3 - 2 . 1 5 1 - 2 . 0 9 2 - 2 . 0 8 1 - 2 . 1 3 4 a M 34 0 . 8 5 7 0 . 8 6 0 0 . 8 6 8 0 . 8 6 9 0 . 8 6 5 M a 4 4 - 0 . 5 1 6 - 0 C 4 9 5 5 - 0 . 4 6 0 - 0 , 4 5 6 - 0 . 4 6 1 x 9 n 1 .969 5 . 1 9 1 8 . 8 0 5 7 .066 9 .581 X 9 1 2 - 5 . 6 6 2 - 5 . 1 4 3 - 5 . 1 2 0 - 4 . 4 9 6 - 5 . 2 8 8 X 9 1 3 1 .348 1 .540 1 .780 1 .716 1 .766 X 9 1 4 - 2 0 . 5 2 6 - 9 . 8 9 6 - 7 . 1 4 0 - 7 . 2 6 1 - 8 . 3 8 8 X G 2 2 1 9 . 4 1 7 5 .976 3 . 2 4 0 3 . 0 9 0 3 . 1 6 5 X 9 2 3 - 3 . 0 3 2 - 1 . 6 6 7 - 1 . 4 8 6 - 1 . 4 5 9 - 1 . 3 4 0 X 9 2 4 3 8 . 6 6 5 9 . 1 2 2 4 . 9 1 7 5 . 2 8 4 5 . 3 2 5 X 9 3 3 0 . 7 4 2 0 .824 1 .140 1 .154 1 .013 X°34 - 1 3 . 8 5 1 - 4 . 3 9 4 - 2 . 7 7 0 - 3 . 2 1 4 - 2 . 9 8 2 X 9 4 4 2 6 6 . 9 9 5 2 6 . 5 2 2 8 .047 1 0 . 3 8 9 1 0 . 4 2 5 - 59 - Table XI. Price e l a s t i c i t i e s for selected years 1948^1972, Canadian foreign trade. Elasticity 1948 1955 1961 1967 1972 ME11 -0.305 -0 .291 MG12 0.028 0.018 ME13 -0.209 -0 .222 ME14 0.486 0.495 M E21 0.023 0.015 M£22 -0 .191 -0 .158 ME23 0.230 0.230 ME24 -0 .061 -0 .086 M£31 -0 .097 -0 .100 ME32 0.129 0.122 ME33 -0C492? -0 .492 ME34 0.460 0.470 M£41 0.096 0.093 ME42 -0 .015 -0 .019 ME43 0.196 0.197 M£44 -0.277 -0 .271 x e n 0.652 1.168 X E12 -0.587 -0 .850 X E13 0.711 0.770 X E14 -0 .776 -1 .088 X £ 21 -1 .875 -1.157 -0 .242 -0 .230 -0 .268 -0 .007 -0 .011 -0 .001 -0 .257 -0 .266 -0 .240 0.507 0.507 0.509 -0.00/7 -0 .010 -0 .001 -0 .070 -0 .062 -0 .077 0.237 0.238 0.232 -0 .161 -0 .166 -0 .154 -0 .103 -0 .103 -0 .102 0.107 0.105 0.108 -0 .494 -0 .494 -0 .493 0.490 0.492 0.487 0.085 0.083 0.089 -0 .030 -0 .031 -0 .029 0.205 0.206 0.200 -0 .259 -0 .258 -0 .260 1.595 1.402 1.676 -1 .055 -0 .942 -1 .099 0.765 0.734 0.800 -1 .305 -1 .194 -1 .377 -0 .928 -0 .892 -0 .925 - 60 - Table XI, continued. X£22 2.012 0.988 X£23 -1.599 -0.833 XG24 1.462 1.003 X£31 0.446 0.347 X£32 -0.314 0.276 X E53 0.392 0.412 XE34 -0.524 -0.483 X£41 -6.796 -2.227 XE42 4.006 1.508 X£43 -7.306 -2.196 XE44 10.096 2.915 0.668 0.647 0.658 -0.639 -0.624 -0.607 0.899 0.869 0.874 0.322 0.340 0.309 -0.306 -0.306 -0.278 0.490 0.494 01459 -0.506 -0.528 -0.490 -1.293 -1.441 -1.467 1.014 1.107 1.107 -1.191 -1.374 -1.351 1.471 1.708 1.711 - 61 - FOOTNOTES 1. These v a r i a b l e s v a r y f r o m one a u t h o r t o a n o t h e r . P rachowny (1969) f o r i n s t a n c e u s e s i n some t r a d e e q u a t i o n s s u c h v a r i a b l e s as c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s , o f f i c i a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e s , d i r e c t f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t s , w o r l d e x p o r t s , e t c . B a l l and Marwah (1962) m o d i f i e d t h e b a s i c mode l by a d d i n g exogenous v a r i a b l e s s u c h as t h e non wage t o wage income r a t i o o r t h e s t o c k s o f non f e r r o u s m e t a l s . The u s e o f s e a s o n a l dummy v a r i a b l e s i s a l s o q u i t e f r e q u e n t , s e e f o r i n s t a n c e Rhomberg (1964). 2 . See f o r i n s t a n c e L i u ( 1 9 5 4 ) , P r a i s ( 1 9 6 2 ) , o r Learner and S t e r n ( 1970 ) , 3 . See A l l e n ( 1 9 3 8 ) , p . 5 0 8 . 4 . K a l i s k i ' s c r i t i q u e w i l l be d i s c u s s e d a l g e b r a i c a l l y b e l o w . 5 . H i c k s (1946) p p . 3 0 8 - 3 1 1 . 6 . T h i s t r e a t m e n t o f i m p o r t s i s a n a l o g o u s t o t h e N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t i n g ''V p r o c e d u r e . 7. - A l t h o u g h t h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s v e r y ' c o m m o n i n t h e . l i t e r a t u r e , "" Appe lbaum and K o h l i (1975) have shown t h a t t h i s does n o t seem t o h o l d N f o r C a n a d a ' s e x p o r t s i n h e r t r a d e w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . 8v, The a s s u m p t i o n s on t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t v a r y f r o m a u t h o r to a u t h o r . See f o r i n s t a n c e D i e w e r t (1973) o r L a u ( 1 9 7 4 a ) . 9 . The e l a s t i c i t y o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n c a n be w r i t t e n a s : ! _ _ W _ _ _ ! _ , -e _ 9 p h y i _ 9 p i y h ' f_ h f h i " i h y h p h y i p i " s h " s i n n and s i m i l a r l y f o r t h e o t h e r e l a s t i c i t i e s . - 62 - 1 0 . F o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f s e p a r a b i l i t y o f f u n c t i o n s , s e e B e r n d t and C h r i s t e n s e n (1973) and B l a c k o r b y , P r i m o n t and R u s s e l l ( 1 9 7 4 ) . 1 1 . I n d e e d , t h e Y ^ ' s (and ( p ^ ' s ) , i ^ h , c o u l d n o t be i d e n t i f i e d i n d i v i d u a l l y . One c a n o n l y e s t i m a t e t h e sums ( Y ^ + Y ^ i ^ a n a " i m p o s i n g t h e e q u a l i t y y ^ = Y ^ does n o t l e a d t h e r e f o r e t o any l o s s o f g e n e r a l i t y . 1 2 . The i n p u t d a t a have b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d s u c h t h a t w ' x = II. T h i s r e s t r i c t s t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y s e t t o a c o n e . 1 3 . M o n o t o n i c i t y i n p r i c e s r e q u i r e s : . . , 3n(p*;x*) > n . . , ( s i g n y ^ ^ > 0 , x = 1 , . . . I - i S i n c e i n t h e t r a n s l o g c a s e : = 9 1 n I I ( p * ; x * ) = 3n(p*;x*) £ i i 8 1 n p i 3 p ± —• n and s inceap^y>f0 1 ; IIh>. Qrpithe m o n o t o n i c i t y c o n d i t i o n c a n be w r i t t e n a s : ( s i g n y ± ) S ± > 0 i = 1 , . . . I and s i m i l a r l y f o r t h e f i x e d q u a n t i t i e s . 1 4 . W i t h t h e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n a l f o r m , t h e t i m e v a r i a b l e i s t i n J o r g e n s o n ' s t r e a t m e n t , b u t i s l n t i n A p p e l b a u m and H a r r i s . I n t h e f i r s t c a s e t i s n o r m a l i z e d t o z e r o f o r t h e b a s e o b s e r v a t i o n and t h e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f a l l v a r i a b l e s e x c e p t t a r e i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e n o r m a l i z a t i o n . I n t h e s e c o n d c a s e t i s n o r m a l i z e d t o one f o r t h e b a s e o b s e r v a t i o n . The e s t i m a t e s o f a l l t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e howeve r n o t i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e n o r m a l i z a t i o n w h i c h i s c h o s e n . T h i s i s s o , s i n c e by t h e n o r m a l i z a t i o n o f t one c h o o s e s a r b i t r a r i l y 1 5 . 1 6 . - 63 - t h e i n i t i a l v a l u e o f t h e t i m e v a r i a b l e w h i c h c o u l d be r e g a r d e d as t h e s t o c k o f k n o w l e d g e . I n t h e f i r s t c a s e , t h i s i s i r r e l e v a n t s i n c e w h a t e v e r t h e n o r m a l i z a t i o n i s , i t o n l y a f f e c t s t h e s t e p s o f an a r i t h m e t i c p r o g r e s s i o n , i . e . t h e s l o p e o f a s t r a i g h t l i n e . See J o r g e n s o n ( 1 9 7 4 ) . We c a n w r i t e t h e e x p r e s s i o n s f o r t h e 5 ' s and d ) . ' s u s i n g m a t r i x X L - J —. n o t a t i o n as f o l l o w s : 6 = K = Y U + .8- A /\ /\ A A A A 'S'y +<£<)>XA where 6 = (S i t ' u 2 t ! • t = ( * i t ' * 2 f • * J - l , t > ' y • = (y - y-j., y 2 - y,., ... y ^ - y ].)' A = ( X 1 ~ \ j » X 2 " \ j ' XJ-1 " V and Y» 8,'8' and d) a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y t h e Y» 8, 8' and 4> m a t r i c e s a s : t h e l a s t row and l a s t co lumn It Y 6. 1 y • t =/, 6' < -e- A T h i s i s a s y s t e m o f I + J - 2 e q u a t i o n s w i t h t h e same number o f v a r i a b l e s . I n a d d i t i o n a l l e q u a t i o n s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t , i . e . Y 8 i s n o n s i n g u l a r . 8' i The o n l y s o l u t i o n t o t h e homogenous s y s t e m - 64 - 0 = i s t h e r e f o r e t h e t r i v i a l s o l u t i o n ( y ' , X») = 0 QED 1 7 . See B e r n d t , H a l l , H a l l and Hausman ( 1 9 7 4 ) . 1 8 . F o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r e s t i m a t i o n , we u s e d t h e Chapman and F a i r (1972) f u l l i n f o r m a t i o n maximum l i k e l i h o o d programme b a s e d on Chow and F a i r ( 1 9 7 1 ) . 1 9 . See A f r i a t (1972) and Hanoch and R o t h s c h i l d ( 1 9 7 2 ) . The t e s t was made h o l d i n g c a p i t a l o n l y f i x e d . I t a p p e a r e d t h a t g i v e n t h e c a p i t a l i n p u t and t h e p r i c e v e c t o r o f p e r i o d t , t h e o u t p u t m i x o f p e r i o d t i n d e e d y i e l d e d a l a r g e r v a r i a b l e p r o f i t t h a n any o u t p u t m i x o f p e r i o d s b e f o r e t , b u t t h e r e v e r s e was i n g e n e r a l t r u e f o r p e r i o d s s u b ' s e q u e n t c t o tV.a reverse was i n g e n e r a l true £o su't-tDsruant t o t , 2 0 . 2 1 . The same t e s t was a l s o made a f t e r h a v i n g imposed c o n v e x i t y i n p r i c e s . See t a b l e I I I . We a l s o a t t e m p t e d t o o b t a i n c o n v e x i t y o v e r t h e e n t i r e r a n g e o f o b s e r v e d p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s by i m p o s i n g one o r s e v e r a l C h o l e s k i v a l u e s t o be g r e a t e r o r e q u a l t o some c o n s t a n t . T h i s i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f a c o n v e x i t y c o n s t r a i n t a t t h e e x p a n s i o n p o i n t . A l t h o u g h we o b t a i n e d t h e d e s i r e d r e s u l t , t h i s p r o c e d u r e may seem somewhat a r b i t r a r y . I n a d d i t i o n t h e goodness o f f i t d e c r e a s e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y , r e s u l t i n g i n l a r g e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e e s t i m a t e d e l a s t i c i t i e s . - 65 - 2 2 . R e c a l l t h a t one had t o be n o r m a l i z e d anyway and a l s o t h a t 3^ h a s n o t been e s t i m a t e d . 2 3 . S e v e r a l a u t h o r s f o u n d a ( t o t a l ) p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f i m p o r t s i n t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d o f m inus o n e ; s e e f o r i n s t a n c e Kemp (1962) and Rhomberg ( 1 9 6 4 ) . F o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , B u r g e s s (1973) f o u n d a p a r t i a l p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y o f an a v e r a g e o f - 1 . 9 . P r e w a r e s t i m a t e s we re i n g e n e r a l much l e s s t h a n one i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e ; s e e f o r i n s t a n c e ! 'Learner and S t e r n ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 2 4 . ' T h i s t y p e o f phenomenon i s w a l l known i n t h e g r o w t h l i t e r a t u r e . I n a two f a c t o r two good m o d e l , t h i s c o u l d be p i c t u r e d by a n o u t w a r d t w i s t o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t y f r o n t i e r a s t h e endowment o f one f a c t o r i s i n c r e a s e d , s u c h t h a t a t unchanged commodi ty p r i c e s , t h e o u t p u t i n t e n s i v e i n t h e o t h e r f a c t o r a c t u a l l y d e c r e a s e s . 2 5 . T h i s r e s u l t i s s u r p r i s i n g a t f i r s t b u t may be e x p l a i n e d b y t h e l a r g e number o f v a r i a b l e s and by t h e e v e n l a r g e r number o f p o s s i b l e i n t e r a c t i o n s p r e s e n t i n t h e mode l and w h i c h make i t h a r d l y p o s s i b l e t o have any a p r i o r i e x p e c t a t i o n s on t h e s i g n o f t h e e f f e c t o f a t a x on one o f many o u t p u t s . F o r i n s t a n c e , t a x e s , l i k e i m p o r t s , a p p e a r t o be r e l a t i v e l y c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e , t o t h e p o i n t a c t u a l l y where a i n c r e a s e i n t h e s t o c k o f c a p i t a l l e a d s t o an a b s o l u t e d e c r e a s e i n t h e q u a n t i t y o f b o t h v a r i a b l e i n p u t s ; we c a n a l s o r e c a l l t h a t s u c h a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e c a p i t a l s t o c k w o u l d d e c r e a s e o u t p u t o f e x p o r t s (remember a l s o t h a t e x p o r t s we re i m p o r t s i n t e n s i v e ) and t h e f a c t t h a t e x p o r t s t u r n ou t to be t a x i n t e n s i v e may t h e n be v e r y i n c i d e n t a l , i . e . t h e f a c t t h a t t a x e s and i m p o r t s a r e complements o r t h e f a c t t h a t t a x e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y c a p i t a l - 66 - intensive may outweigh the fact that intermediate goods entering the production of exports are not taxed. - 67 - REFERENCES A f r i a t , S . 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E . , 1 9 7 3 , " F u n c t i o n a l Forms f o r P r o f i t and T r a n s f o r m a t i o n F u n c t i o n s " , J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c T h e o r y , 6 , 2 8 4 - 3 1 6 . D i e w e r t , W. E . , 1 9 7 4 a , " A p p l i c a t i o n s o f D u a l i t y T h e o r y " , i n F r o n t i e r s o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e E c o n o m i c s , Vo lume I I , e d . M. D. I n t r i l i g a t o r and D. A . K e n d r i c k , Ams te rdam: N o r t h - H o l l a n d . D i e w e r t , W. E . , 1 9 7 4 b , "Homogenous Weak S e p a r a b i l i t y and E x a c t I n d e x N u m b e r s " , T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t n o . 1 2 2 , I n s t i t u t e f o r M a t h e m a t i c a l S t u d i e s i n t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , S t a n f o r d . D i e w e r t , W. E . , 1 9 7 5 , " A n n u a l Emp loymen t , I n d u s t r y by O c c u p a t i o n , i n Canada 1926-1974 on an Employment S u r v e y B a s i s and E s t i m a t e s o f O c c u p a t i o n a l E a r n i n g s " , Depa r tmen t o f Manpower and I m m i g r a t i o n , O t t a w a . D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1 9 5 0 , " E x p o r t and Impo r t P r i c e I n d e x e s by M o n t h s " , D . B . S . R e f e r e n c e P a p e r s . F i s h e r , I., 1 9 2 2 , The M a k i n g o f I n d e x Numbers , B o s t o n : H o u g h t o n - M i f f l i n . G o l d b e r g e r , A . S . , 1 9 6 7 , " F u n c t i o n a l Fo rm and U t i l i t y : A R e v i e w o f Consumer Demand T h e o r y " , S o c i a l Sys tems R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n . Gorman, W. M . , 1 9 6 8 , " M e a s u r i n g t h e Q u a n t i t i e s o f F i x e d F a c t o r s " , i n V a l u e , C a p i t a l and G r o w t h : P a p e r s i n Honour o f S i r J o h n H i c k s , e d . J . V . W o l f e , C h i c a g o : A l d i n e P u b l i s h i n g C o . H a n o c h , G . and M. R o t h s c h i l d , 1 9 7 2 , " T e s t i n g t h e A s s u m p t i o n s o f P r o d u c t i o n T h e o r y : A N o n p a r a m e t r i c A p p r o a c h " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy, 8 0 , 2 5 6 - 2 7 5 . - 70 - H a r b e r g e r , A . C , 1 9 5 3 , " A S t r u c t u r a l A p p r o a c h t o t h e P r o b l e m o f Impor t Demand" , A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e v i e w , P a p e r s and P r o c e e d i n g s , 4 3 , 1 4 8 - 1 6 0 . H a r b e r g e r , A . C , 1 9 5 7 , "Some E v i d e n c e on t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r i c e M e c h a n i s m " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy, 6 5 , 5 0 6 - 5 2 1 . H o t e l l i n g , H . , 1 9 3 2 , " E d g e w o r t h ' s T a x a t i o n P a r a d o x and t h e N a t u r e o f Demand and S u p p l y F u n c t i o n s " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy, 4 0 , 5 7 7 - 6 1 6 . H o u t h a k k e r , H . S . and S . D. M a g e e , 1 9 6 9 , " Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s i n W o r l d T r a d e " , R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c s and S t a t i s t i c s , 5 1 , 1 1 1 - 1 1 5 . J o r g e n s o n , D. W . , 1 9 7 3 , " C o n v e x i t y " , U n p u b l i s h e d memorandum. J o r g e n s o n , D. W . , 1 9 7 4 , " P r o d u c t i o n i n t h e I n t e r - I n d u s t r y M o d e l " , u n p u b l i s h e d memorandum. J u n z , H . B . and R. R . Rhomberg , 1 9 7 3 , " P r i c e C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s i n E x p o r t T r a d e Among I n d u s t r i a l C o u n t r i e s " , A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e v i e w , P a p e r s and P r o c e e d i n g s , 6 3 , 4 1 2 - 4 1 8 . K a l i s k i , S . F . , 1 9 5 8 , " A Comment on D r . Z e l d e r ' s E s t i m a t e s " , M a n c h e s t e r S c h o o l , 2 6 , 241 - 2 4 6 . Kemp, M. C . , 1 9 6 2 , The Demand f o r C a n a d i a n I m p o r t s , 1 9 2 6 - 1 9 5 5 , T o r o n t o : U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s . L a u , L . J . , 1 9 7 4 a , " A p p l i c a t i o n s o f D u a l i t y T h e o r y : A Comment" , i n F r o n t i e r s o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e E c o n o m i c s , Volume I I , e d . M . D . I n t r i l i g a t o r and D. A . K e n d r i c k , Ams te rdam: N o r t h - H o l l a n d . L a u , L . J . , 1 9 7 4 b , " E c o n o m e t r i c s o f M o n o t o n i c i t y , C o n v e x i t y and Q u a s i - c o n v e x i t y " , T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t n o . 1 2 3 , I n s t i t u t e f o r M a t h e m a t i c a l S t u d i e s i n t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , S t a n f o r d . - 71 - Learner , E . E . and R. M. S t e r n , 1 9 7 0 , Q u a n t i t a t i v e I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c s , B o s t o n : A l l y n and B a c o n . L i u , T . C , 1 9 5 4 , " T h e E l a s t i c i t y o f U . S . ; Impor t Demand: A T h e o r e t i c a l and E m p i r i c a l R e a p p r a i s a l " , IMF S t a f f P a p e r s , 3 , 4 1 6 - 4 4 1 . M a c h l u p , F . , 1 9 5 0 , " E l a s t i c i t y P e s s i m i s m i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e " , E c o n o m i a I n t e r n a t i o n a l e , 3 , 1 1 8 . M o r r i s s e t t , I., 1 9 5 3 , "Some R e c e n t U s e s o f E l a s t i c i t y o f S u b s t i t u t i o n - - A S u r v e y " , E c o n o m e t r i c a , 2 1 , 4 1 - 6 2 . N e i s s e r , H . , 1 9 5 8 , " 'Comment ' on 'Some E v i d e n c e on t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r i c e M e c h a n i s m ' " , R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c s and S t a t i s t i c s , 4 0 , 1 2 9 - 1 3 9 . O r c u t t , G . H . , 1 9 5 0 , "Measurement o f P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e " , R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c s and S t a t i s t i c s , 3 2 , 1 1 7 - 1 3 2 . P r a c h o w n y , M. F . J . , 1 9 6 9 , A S t r u c t u r a l M o d e l o f t h e US B a l a n c e o f P a y m e n t s , Ams te rdam: N o r t h - H o l l a n d . P r a i s , S . J . , 1 9 6 2 , " E c o n o m e t r i c R e s e a r c h i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e : A R e v i e w " , K y k l o s , 1 5 , 5 6 0 - 5 7 9 . Rhomberg , R. R . , 1 9 6 4 , " A M o d e l o f t h e C a n a d i a n Economy u n d e r F i x e d and F l u c t u a t i n g Exchange R a t e s " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy, 7 2 , 1 - 3 1 . S a m u e l s o n , P . A . , 1 9 5 3 - 5 4 , " P r i c e s o f F a c t o r s and Goods i n G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m " , R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c S t u d i e s , 2 1 , 1 - 2 0 . S h e p h a r d , R. W . , 1 9 5 3 , C o s t and P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n s , P r i n c e t o n : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . S l a t e r , D. W . , 1 9 5 7 , C a n a d a ' s I m p o r t s , O t t a w a : Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r . S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , R e v i e w o f F o r e i g n T r a d e , v a r i o u s i s s u e s . - 72 - S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , T r a d e o f C a n a d a , Vo lume I: Summary, Vo lume I I : E x p o r t s Volume I I I : I m p o r t s , v a r i o u s i s s u e s . S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , S y s t e m o f N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t s - N a t i o n a l Income and E x p e n d i t u r e A c c o u n t s , v a r i o u s i s s u e s . T h e i l , H . , 1 9 6 5 , " T h e I n f o r m a t i o n A p p r o a c h t o Demand A n a l y s i s " , E c o n o m e t r i c a , 3 3 , 6 7 - 8 7 . U z a w a , H . , 1 9 6 2 , " P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n s w i t h C o n s t a n t E l a s t i c i t i e s o f S u b s t i t u t i o n " , R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c S t u d i e s , 2 9 , 2 9 1 - 2 9 9 . W o o d l a n d , A . D . , 1 9 7 2 , "The C o n s t r u c t i o n o f P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y Components o f I n p u t s f o r C a n a d i a n I n d u s t r i e s , 1 9 2 7 - 1 9 6 9 " , Depa r tmen t o f Manpower and I m m i g r a t i o n , O t t a w a . W o r k i n g , E . J . , 1 9 2 7 , "What Do S t a t i s t i c a l 'Demand C u r v e s ' S h o w ? " , Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , 4 1 , 2 1 2 - 2 3 5 . Z e l d e r , R. E . , 1 9 5 8 , " E s t i m a t e s o f E l a s t i c i t i e s o f Demand f o r E x p o r t s o f t h e U n i t e d K ingdom and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , 1 9 2 1 - 1 9 3 8 " , M a n c h e s t e r S c h o o l , 2 6 , 3 3 - 4 7 . APPENDIX 1 . D a t a D e s c r i p t i o n : D o m e s t i c V a r i a b l e s A l l d a t a a r e y e a r l y d a t a f o r 1948 t o 1972 and a r e r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e A . I . The l a b o u r and c a p i t a l d a t a were c a l c u l a t e d a s D i v i s i a q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s o f t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s c o n t a i n e d i n Wood land (1972) and D i e w e r t ( 1 9 7 5 ) . On t h e v a r i a b l e q u a n t i t y s i d e , t h e d a t a f o r c o n s u m p t i o n , i n v e s t m e n t and government p u r c h a s e s we re d e r i v e d f r o m t h e N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t s . I n v e s t m e n t i n c l u d e s new r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , new n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n and new mach ine ry and e q u i p m e n t . Government e x p e n d i t u r e s we re d e f i n e d a s s a l e s f r o m b u s i n e s s t o government and were a g g r e g a t e d w i t h c o n s u m p t i o n . I n v e n t o r i e s were c o n s i d e r e d t o be a f i x e d i n p u t t o t h e t e c h n o l o g y a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e p e r i o d and a v a r i a b l e o u t p u t a t t h e end o f t h e p e r i o d ( s e e D i e w e r t ( 1 9 7 2 ) , S e c t i o n 6 : " P r o d u c e r B e h a v i o u r When D e p r e c i a t i o n R a t e s a r e V a r i a b l e " ) . The c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i n i t i a l s t o c k o f i n v e n t o r i e s i s c a l c u l a t e d a s : C t = P t q t - l where p f c i s t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e of i n v e n t o r i e s and q f c ^ t h e q u a n t i t y o f i n v e n t o r i e s a t t h e end o f p e r i o d t - 1 . The r e v e n u e c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e o u t p u t o f i n v e n t o r i e s i s : - 74 - R t • q t r r r ; where r i s a n exogenous i n t e r e s t r a t e . Thus when a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e p e r i o d f i r m s d e c i d e upon t h e v o l u m e o f t h e i r f i n a l i n v e n t o r i e s , t h e y d i s c o u n t t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e o f i n v e n t o r i e s . The i n v e n t o r y d a t a i n c l u d e b o t h f a r m and b u s i n e s s i n v e n t o r y s e r i e s and we re computed by Denny ( 1 9 7 4 ) ; f a r m i n v e n t o r i e s i n c l u d e g r a i n i n c o m m e r c i a l c h a n n e l s . The i n t e r e s t r a t e we u s e d - t o ^ d i s c o u n t ; f a r m - i n v e n t o r i e s i s t h e p r i c e o f f a r m m o r t g a g e r a t e c o n t a i n e d i n D a n i e l s o n (1973) , w h i l e f o r b u s i n e s s i n v e n t o r i e s we u s e d t h e Government o f Canada 1 t o 3 y e a r bond y i e l d . I n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s e n t e r t h e m o d e l s i n c e t h e y a r e s u b j e c t t o t a x a t i o n and t h e r e f o r e i m p l y a n e t c o s t t o t h e b u s i n e s s s e c t o r . The r e v e n u e o f t he s e l l i n g f i r m i s : R = p q w h i l e f o r t h e p u r c h a s i n g f i r m t h e c o s t w o u l d b e : C = p ( l .+ T). q where x i s t h e t a x r a t e a p p l y i n g t o t r a n s a c t i o n s o f i n t e r m e d i a t e g o o d s . The n e t c o s t t o t h e b u s i n e s s s e c t o r i s t h e r e f o r e : C - R = p x q = T , T b e i n g t h e t a x r e c e i p t s f r o m i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s , and t h e p r i c e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o c o s t T c a n t h e n be c a l c u l a t e d a s : T p T = — . q The c o s t o f i n t e r m e d i a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s was c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e t o t a l o f f e d e r a l s a l e s t a x e s , e x c i s e t a x e s and e x c i s e d u t i e s , a l l f i g u r e s b e i n g t a k e n f r o m t h e N a t i o n a l A c c o u n t s . The q u a n t i t y o f w h o l e s a l e t r a d e was - 75 - obtained by deflating the volume of wholesale trade by the wholesale price index for fabricated materials and end products as published by Statistics Canada. The volume i t s e l f has been calculated net of sales of drugs, food, coal, farm machinery, industrial equipment and supplies, and newsprint. - 76 - 2 . C o n s t r u c t i o n o f P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y Components o f C a n a d i a n F o r e i g n T r a d e : 1948 t o 1972 We d i s c u s s i n t h i s s e c t i o n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s o f C a n a d i a n i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , a s w e l l a s t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s e r i e s o f i m p o r t d u t i e s and r e - e x p o r t s . We f u r t h e r d e s c r i b e t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s u b a g g r e g a t e s e r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s i n t o f o u r componen ts . T h e s e a r e t h e s u b a g g r e g a t e s e r i e s u s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s , b u t a l t e r n a t i v e a g g r e g a t i o n c o u l d be c a r r i e d o u t . 2 . 1 A l t e r n a t i v e C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f C a n a d i a n F o r e i g n T r a d e The p r i m e s o u r c e o f a n n u a l d a t a on C a n a d i a n f l o w s o f t r a d e i s T r a d e o f Canada p u b l i s h e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada ( C a t a l o g u e N o . 6 5 - 2 0 1 t o 6 5 - 2 0 3 ) . I t c o n t a i n s , on a commodi ty b a s i s , t h e v a l u e o f i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , d u t i e s c o l l e c t e d , r e - e x p o r t s a n d , whenever p o s s i b l e , p h y s i c a l q u a n t i t i e s . U n t i l 1960 c o m m o d i t i e s we re c l a s s i f i e d by g r o u p s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e .component m a t e r i a l . I h o l 9 6 1 f o r e x p o r t s a n d i n 1964 f o r i m p o r t s t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme was s u b s t a n t i a l l y a l t e r e d so t h a t S t a t i s t i c s Canada now p u b l i s h e s i m p o r t and e x p o r t d a t a by commod i ty s e c t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n t h e R e v i e w o f F o r e i g n T r a d e ( S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a , 6 5 - 2 0 5 ) o f f e r e d u n t i l 1960 f o u r a d d i t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s : by o r i g i n , by d e g r e e o f m a n u f a c t u r e , by p u r p o s e and a c c o r d i n g t o t h e S t a n d a r d I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e C l a s s i f i c a t i o n ( S I T C ) . - 77 - T h e s e s e r i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e f r o m 1926 on e x c e p t f o r t h e l a s t one w h i c h was i n t r o d u c e d i n 1 9 5 1 . S i n c e 1960 f i n a l l y , S t a t i s t i c s Canada has a l s o p u b l i s h e d v a l u e s e r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s t a g e o f f a b r i c a t i o n and on t h e b a s i s of t h e r e v i s e d (1961) S I T C . The Bank o f C a n a d a , i n i t s m o n t h l y r e v i e w , o f f e r s two more p r i n c i p l e s of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n : e x p o r t s by commodi ty t y p e and i m p o r t s by e n d - u s e . S l a t e r ( 1 9 5 7 ) , f i n a l l y , c o n s t r u c t e d i m p o r t s e r i e s f o r n i n e t e e n commodi ty g r o u p s f o r s e l e c t e d y e a r s be tween 1928 and 1 9 5 5 . P r i c e and q u a n t i t y l s e r i e s , h o w e v e r , e x i s t f o r o n l y some o f t h e s e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s . S t a t i s t i c s Canada p u b l i s h e s p r i c e and q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s ( f i x e d w e i g h t L a s p e y r e s and P a a s c h e r e s p e c t i v e l y ) , a t t h e g roup l e v e l p r i o r t o 1960 and a t t h e s e c t i o n l e v e l a f t e r 1 9 6 0 . I n a d d i t i o n , more d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n d i c e s were p u b l i s h e d i n t h e R e v i e w o f F o r e i g n T r a d e u n t i l 1 9 6 0 . S i n c e 1973 t h e Bank o f Canada p u b l i s h e s p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s w h i c h m a t c h w i t h t h e m a i n c a t e g o r i e s o f t h e i m p o r t and e x p o r t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e s e s e r i e s go b a c k to 1961 o n l y and f o r some i m p o r t s , t h e y a r e no t a v a i l a b l e f o r 1962 and 1 9 6 3 . The l a s t p r i c e s e r i e s w h i c h i s a v a i l a b l e i s t h e one Kemp (1962) c o n s t r u c t e d f o r f o u r t e e n o f S l a t e r ' s i m p o r t c a t e g o r i e s . F o r mos t c a t e g o r i e s Kemp c a l c u l a t e d b o t h d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t i n d i c e s , where t h e d i r e c t p r i c e s a r e b a s e d on t h e w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s o f c l o s e s u b s t i t u t e s and t h e i n d i r e c t p r i c e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d by c o r r e c t i n g i m p o r t p r i c e s f o r i n s u r a n c e , f r e i g h t , i m p o r t d u t i e s , e x c i s e d u t i e s , w h o l e s a l e m a r k - u p s , e t c . T h e s e s e r i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e f r o m 1926 t o 1 9 5 5 . - 78 - I n c h o o s i n g a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n f o r o u r p u r p o s e s , we w o u l d l i k e t o g roup i m p o r t and e x p o r t s i n s u c h a way so a s t o m i n i m i z e a g g r e g a t i o n e r r o r s . S u c h a n o t i o n o f h o m o g e n e i t y i s , h o w e v e r , v e r y v a g u e and i t seems d i f f i c l t t o d e c i d e a_ p r i o r i w h i c h c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w o u l d be b e s t s u i t e d . On t h e o t h e r hand i t i s i m p o r t a n t n o t t o d i s r e g a r d t h e r e l a t i v e d i f f i c u l t y o f c o n s t r u c t i n g p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e a l t e r n a t i v e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s . T h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n h a s been p r i m o r d i a l i n t h e a c t u a l c h o i c e o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . I t looked i n i t i a l l y a s a n a t t r a c t i v e p o s s i b i l i t y t o e x t e n d K e m p ' s s e r i e s f r o m 1955 o n . T h i s a p p e a r e d t o be v e r y d i f f i c u l t , h o w e v e r , s i n c e o n l y l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e on how h i s s e r i e s w e r e a c t u a l l y c o n s t r u c t e d , and r e g a r d i n g e x p o r t s , t h e s e r i e s w o u l d h a v e had t o be b u i l t f r o m s c r a t c h . I n a d d i t i o n , Kemp was m a i n l y i n t e r e s t e d i n o b t a i n i n g p r i c e i n d i c e s a t t h e consumer l e v e l , w h i c h does n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o ou r n e e d s , and f i n a l l y , h i s i m p o r t c a t e g o r i e s do n o t c o v e r t h e t o t a l i t y of i m p o r t s . The Bank o f Canada s e r i e s i s t o o s h o r t so i t seemed n a t u r a l t o c h o o s e t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . The new c l a s s i f i c a t i o n (by s e c t i o n s ) w i l l be u s e d ; t h i s w i l l make i t p o s s i b l e t o e x t e n d t h e s e r i e s i n f u t u r e y e a r s w i t h o u t d i f f i c u l t y . I t w i l l t h u s be n e c e s s a r y t o make t h e c o n v e r s i o n f r o m t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by g r o u p s t o t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by s e c t i o n s f o r t h e y e a r 1948 t o 1 9 6 0 . T h i s w i l l e n a b l e us t o c a l c u l a t e D i v i s i a i n d i c e s a t t h e s e c t i o n l e v e l f o r t h e w h o l e p e r i o d . We w i l l now examine t h e two c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s i n some more d e t a i l . - 79 - 2 . 1 . 1 . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by Groups F o r b o t h i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s , n i n e g r o u p s o f c o m m o d i t i e s a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e component m a t e r i a l : A g r i c u l t u r a l and v e g e t a b l e p r o d u c t s , A n i m a l s and a n i m a l p r o d u c t s , F i b r e s and t e x t i l e s , Wood p r o d u c t s and p a p e r , I r o n and s t e e l and p r o d u c t s , N o n - f e r r o u s m e t a l s and p r o d u c t s , N o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l s and p r o d u c t s , C h e m i c a l s and f e r t i l i z e r s , M i s c e l l a n e o u s . E a c h g roup i s d i v i d e d i n t o s u b g r o u p s and may c o n t a i n s e v e r a l h u n d r e d s o f d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f c o m m o d i t i e s . Some o f t h e s e commodi ty t y p e s mayschange f r o m y e a r t o y e a r , b u t most c h a n g e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y u n i m p o r t a n t . The p r i c e and q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s o f a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s and o f t h e v a r i o u s g r o u p s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n DBS ( 1 9 5 0 ) . They a r e f i x e d w e i g h t L a s p e y r e s p r i c e i n d i c e s and P a a s c h e q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s b a s e d on 1 9 4 8 . T h e s e i n d i c e s were c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e s e r i e s d e f i n e d f o r commodi ty s u b g r o u p s o r more g e n e r a l l y f o r i n d i v i d u a l c o m m o d i t i e s . Those d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e i n d i c e s a r e i n g e n e r a l i m p o r t o r e x p o r t u n i t p r i c e s o r somet imes p r i c e . i n d i c e s o f c l o s e C a n a d i a n o r U . S . s u b s t i t u t e s . The p r i c e i n d e x o f e a c h g roup was t h e n c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g f o r w e i g h t s t h e 1948 - 80 - relative value of the particular commodities for which the price indices were defined, rather than the relative value of the whole subgroup. In some instances, small modifications to the trade classification were made.(see DBS (1950J. The aggregate import or export price index in turn was calculated by weighting the group indices by the 1948 relative value of the corresponding group. This comes to say that within each group, the prices of a l l commodities for which an index is not explicitly available are assumed to be the same and equal to the price index calculated for this group. This can be expressed algebraically using the following notation: p^ , q̂ _. price and quantity of commodity j of group i for which a price index i s available; P i k ' q*^ price and quantity of commodity k of group i for which a price index i s not available. p\, the price index for group i such as i t i s calculated by Statistics Canada i s therefore: v „ v.̂  t E p*. q?. E p'.v.. ^Ev. .v~~^ Pij E w. . P?. p-t- = * i j H x j = 11 _ L l L l L l 1 E p?. q?. £ v.. v./v w. r x j ^xj xj x x where o o v. . = p.. q.. xj *xj ^xj v. = Ev. . + Ev* .1 i j ik v = Ev. ; l v. . v. i j i w. . = -=—- — i i Ev. . v i j - 81 - v . l w. = — i v t U o IJ On t h e o t h e r hand t h e " c o m p l e t e " i n d e x P ^ w o u l d b e : Z v . . P * . + Z v * P * * Z U . . P ^ . + Z U * P.*? p t = i j x j xk i k > = i j i j i k i k i v . w. x x where U . . = v . . / v X J 1 J U * = v * / v . xk xk t - t ^ t I f we now assume t h a t P * = P . = P . , V k one c a n e a s i l y v e r i f y t h a t xk x x ' J J t 'vt P . = P . . • X X 2 . 1 . 2 . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by S e c t i o n s - . S i n c e 1960 i m p o r t e d and e x p o r t e d goods h a v e c b e e n c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s : L i v e a n i m a l s , F o o d , f e e d , b e v e r a g e s and t o b a c c o , C r u d e m a t e r i a l s , i n e d i b l e , End p r o d u c t s , i n e d i b l e , . S p e c i a l t r a n s a c t i o n s E a c h s e c t i o n a g a i n i s d i v i d e d i n s u b g r o u p s and c o n t a i n s h u n d r e d s o f commodi ty t y p e s . I n many c a s e s t h e r e i s a one t o one c o r r e s p o n d e n c e be tween commodi ty t y p e s o f t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by - 82 - groups and sections. This i s in general not true at the subgroup level and obviously not at the group or section level. Regarding price indices, two subperiods have to be distinquished since the 1948 weights continued to be in use u n t i l 1967, when they were replaced by 1968 weights. (i) 1960-1967 subperiod The commodity base as well as the weights for the aggregate import or export price index remained unchanged from the period 1948 to 1960. The weight of each section in^itheCaggregate index is therefore not equal.to i t s 1948 relative value. Similarly, for the subaggregate indices calculated for each section, the weights attached to each price series do not reflect the relative importance of the corresponding commodity or commodity subgroup within the section. Instead those weights reflect the relative importance of the group to which they belonged under the old classification and the relative value of the other indexed commodities in the same group. The fact that the calculated price indices at the section level are not independent of the classification by groups i s unfortunate and i t would have been preferable to recompute in 1960 the (1948 or 1960) weights within each section. ( i i ) 1967-1972 subperiod In 1968 a new price index using 1968 weights was defined. The commodity base of this new index is somewhat different from the - 83 - b a s e o f t h e 1948 i n d e x . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e change i n t r a d e c o m p o s i t i o n some s e r i e s were added and o t h e r s we re d i s c o n t i n u e d . The 1968 w e i g h t s we re c a l c u l a t e d on a s i m i l a r f a s h i o n a s i t h e 1948 w e i g h t s e x c e p t t h a t t h e y were n o r m a l i z e d t o add up t o u n i t y w i t h i n e a c h s e c t i o n . B o t h t h e a g g r e g a t e and t h e s u b a g g r e g a t e ( s e c t i o n l e v e l ) s e r i e s h a v e b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d b a c k t o 1 9 6 7 . 2 . 2 D i s a g g r e g a t e d P r i c e and Q u a n t i t y S e r i e s 2 . 2 . 1 . P r i c e S e r i e s I d e a l l y we w o u l d h a v e l i k e d t o o b t a i n d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e s e r i e s c o v e r i n g t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 7 2 . F o r some c o m m o d i t i e s , h o w e v e r , t h i s was n o t p o s s i b l e s i n c e some s e r i e s may have been d i s c o n t i n u e d o r new ones may have a p p e a r e d as t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f a p a r t i c u l a r commodi ty t y p e d e c r e a s e d o r i n c r e a s e d o v e r t i m e . I n a d d i t i o n t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f a subg roup o r o f a commodi ty t y p e i t s e l f may have changed a t some t i m e , e s p e c i a l l y d u r i n g t h e 1960 t r a n s i t i o n . We t h e r e f o r e o b t a i n e d p r i c e s e r i e s f o r t h r e e s u b p e r i o d s , a l t h o u g h f o r many c o m m o d i t i e s , t h e s e s e r i e s a c t u a l l y c o v e r t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d . The f a c t t h a t some s e r i e s do n o t c o v e r t h e f u l l p e r i o d i s n o t c r u c i a l f o r t h i s s tudy f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f c u r r e n t W e i g h t i n d i c e s w i l l n o t i m p l y any c o m p u t a t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t y . The c o m m o d i t i e s o r s u b g r o u p s f o r w h i c h n p r i c e s e r i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e and t h e s e r i e s t h e m s e l v e s a r e r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e s A . V I , A . V I I , A . X I I , and A . X I I I . - 84 - U n f o r t u n a t e l y i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n a l l . s e r i e s w h i c h have been u s e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada i n c o m p u t i n g t h e i r a g g r e g a t e p r i c e i n d i c e s . B e c a u s e o f l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s we had t o r e s t r i c t o u r - s e l v e s t o t h e m a j o r c o m m o d i t i e s . Thus f o r t h e p e r i o d 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 we o n l y r e t a i n e d t h e s e r i e s w h i c h were c o n s i s t e n t l y p u b l i s h e d i n t h e R e v i e w o f F o r e i g n T r a d e (41 f o r e x p o r t s , 42 f o r i m p o r t s ) . F rom 1960 t o 1972 t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s were n o t p u b l i s h e d , b u t t h e y w e r e made a v a i l a b l e t o us by S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . F o r t h e p e r i o d 1960 t o 1967 we o n l y r e t a i n e d t h e s e r i e s w h i c h a l r e a d y e x i s t e d p r i o r t o 1960 o r w h i c h c o n t i n u e d f r o m 1968 o n . F o r t h e p e r i o d 1967 t o 1972 f i n a l l y o u r s e r i e s c o r r e s p o n d , f o r e i t h e r i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s , t o t h e 40 m a j o r c o m m o d i t i e s . 2 . 2 . 2 . Q u a n t i t y S e r i e s V a l u e s e r i e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e s e r i e s w e r e t h e n ' c o m p i l e d . I n mos t c a s e s i t h a s b e e n assumed t h a t a l l c o m m o d i t i e s w i t h i n a subg roup were homogenous and had t h e same p r i c e . T h i s p r o c e d u r e may seem p r e f e r a b l e t o t h a t employed by S t a t i s t i c s Canada w h i c h a s s i g n s t o any p r i c e s e r i e s t h e w e i g h t o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g commodi ty o n l y and h e n c e a s s i g n s t h e a g g r e g a t e p r i c e o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r s e c t i o n t o a l l o t h e r goods o f t h e s u b g r o u p . A l l v a l u e s e r i e s were c o n s t r u c t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e T r a d e o f Canada f i g u r e s . The code numbers o f t h e c o m m o d i t i e s e n t e r i n g e a c h s e r i e s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n T a b l e s A . V I I t o A . X I . The q u a n t i t y s e r i e s f i n a l l y we re c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g t h e v a l u e s e r i e s by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p r i c e s e r i e s . - 85 - 2.2.3. Computation of Price Series for Residual Commodities As mentioned earlier, Statistics Canada has used, i n computing price series at the group or section level, some additional disaggregated series which,. however, are not available for this study. In order to pick up some of the effect of thos missing prices, price series for residual commodities were computed for each section or group. We now use the following notation: p „ , q „ price and quantity of good j of group (section) i for which we have a price series, , q_^ price and quantity of good h of group (section) i for which we do not have a price series, but for which a price series exists and has been used by Statistics Canada to compute the aggregate indices, P i k * ^ik P r i c e a n ^ quantity of good k of group (section) i for which there i s no price series. The aggregate price index has been calculated as t ~ *t t " t O/t _ v : . P. . + Zv.. PT, Z v. . P. . + V . . P . . + Zv* P. p-t = xj xj i h ih = i i i j ih i h lk l 1 Ev.. + Ev.u Ev.. + Ev., + Ev* xj ih xj xh xk ~ t However, we do not know P.. , Vk, but we can define an xk aggregate price index for residual commodities as: £ v. . P^ + E v* & pt = i.i x xk x 1 E v., +Ev* xh xk - 86 - and P ^ c a n t h e n be computed f r o m : E v . . P*. + (E v . , + E v * ) P * £ t _ 13 13 l h i k ' 1 1 E v . . + E v + v * 13 l h i k The w e i g h t s (1948 o r 1968 a s t h e c a s e may be) o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada were u s e d to compute t h e s e r e s i d u a l p r i c e s e r i e s . These w e i g h t s , w h i c h a r e r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e s A . V I I I t o A . X I , a r e no t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e same a s t h o s e we c o u l d have c a l c u l a t e d f r o m ou r v a l u e s e r i e s s i n c e f o r some s e r i e s ou r commodi ty b a s e may be somewhat l a r g e r . 2 . 3 . C o n s t r u c t i o n o f D i v i s i a P r i c e I n d i c e s a t t h e S e c t i o n L e v e l , 1948 t o 1972 The d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s were u s e d t o c o n s t r u c t p r i c e i n d i c e s a t t h e s e c t i o n l e v e l f o r t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d 1948 t o 1 9 7 2 . F o r t h i s p u r p o s e i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s w i l l be d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r s e c t i o n s b a s e d on t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a : ( 1 , 2 ) L i v e a n i m a l s , f o o d , f e e d , b e v e r a g e s and t o b a c c o , (3) C r u d e m a t e r i a l s , i n e d i b l e , (4) F a b r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s , i n e d i b l e , (5) End p r o d u c t s , i n e d i b l e . L i v e a n i m a l s have t h u s b e e n added t o t h e f o o d s e c t i o n s i n c e l i v e a n i m a l s i s a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l c a t e g o r y . I n a d d i t i o n s p e c i a l t r a n s a c t i o n s we re d i s r e g a r d e d s i n c e no p r i c e s e r i e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o any commodi ty i n t h i s c a t e g o r y i s a v a i l a b l e and s i n c e most o f t h e s e c o m m o d i t i e s wou ld be e x c l u d e d f r o m a m o d e l o f t h e C a n a d i a n p r i v a t e s e c t o r . - 87 - 2 . 3 . 1 . R e c o n c i l i a t i o n Be tween C l a s s i f i c a t i o n by G r o u p s and by S e c t i o n s , 1948 t o I960 . The n e x t s t e p was t o a l l o c a t e t h e v a r i o u s commodi ty t y p e s t o t h e d i f f e r e n t s e c t i o n s f o r t h e s u b p e r i o d 1948 t o 1960 i n o r d e r t o c o n v e r t t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by g r o u p s i n t o t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by s e c t i o n s . T h i s was done on t h e b a s i s o f t h e c o n v e r s i o n k e y p u b l i s h e d i n T r a d e o f C a n a d a . T h i s t a s k was r e l a t i v e l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l commodi ty subgroups, bu t was c o n s i d e r a b l y more c o m p l i c a t e d f o r t h e r e s i d u a l c a t e g o r i e s b e c a u s e o f t h e h u n d r e d s o f c o m m o d i t i e s i n v o l v e d . I n some i n s t a n c e s t h e a l l o c a t i o n be tween s e c t i o n s had t o be done a t t h e commodi ty l e v e l i n w h i c h c a s e c o n s t a n t (1960) c o e f f i c i e n t s we re u s e d . The v a l u e s e r i e s we o b t a i n e d a t t h e s e c t i o n l e v e l d i f f e r o n l y s l i g h t l y f r o m t h o s e c o m p i l e d by S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . I t w a s , h o w e v e r , n e c e s s a r y t o r e c o n s t r u c t t h e s e s e r i e s i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n t h e c u r r e n t w e i g h t s f o r e a c h commodi ty s u b g r o u p . N o t e a l s o t h a t t h e a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t and e x p o r t v a l u e s a r e somewhat l e s s t h a n t h o s e p u b l i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by g r o u p s s i n c e some c o m m o d i t i e s f a l l i n t o t h e s p e c i a l t r a n s a c t i o n c a t e g o r y and a r e t h u s e x c l u d e d f r o m o u r s e r i e s . 2 . 3 . 2 C o m p u t a t i o n o f D i v i s i a P r i c e I n d i c e s a t t h e S e c t i o n L e v e l and t h e A g g r e g a t e L e v e l U s i n g ou r d i s a g g r e g a t e d p r i c e and q u a n t i t y s e r i e s , we n e x t computed D i v i s i a i n d i c e s f o r e a c h s e c t i o n and f o r a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t s - 88 - o r e x p o r t s . A d i s c r e t e a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o t h e D i v i s i a p r i c e i n d e x i s ( s e e T h e i l (1965) and D i e w e r t ( 1 9 7 4 b ) ) : 1 1 o o 1 1 0 p i q i p i q i p i Zn D 1 , U = E ( — — r - 'H — — ) Jin — . \ 1 1 „ o o o E p . q . E p . q . p . F o r p e r i o d t , t h e i n d e x c a n be c a l c u l a t e d by r e c u r r e n c e l i k e any o t h e r c u r r e n t w e i g h t i n d e x : D t , o = D t , t - 1 ^ D t - l , o _ I D i , i - 1 ^ i - 1 T h i s p r i c e i n d e x i s p a r t i c u l a r l y s u i t e d when u s e d t o e s t i m a t e a t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n a l f o r m s i n c e i t h a s b e e n shown t h a t t h e D i v i s i a i n d e x i s e x a c t f o r a homogenous t r a n s l o g ( p r i c e ) a g g r e g a t o r f u n c t i o n ( s e e D i e w e r t ( 1 9 7 4 b ) ) . We must n o t e , h o w e v e r , t h a t some o f o u r d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s do n o t c o v e r t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d . T h i s w o u l d i m p l y t h a t t h e a g g r e g a t o r f u n c t i o n i s d e f i n e d on a d i f f e r e n t s p a c e i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d and weak s e p a r a b i l i t y c a n o n l y be c o n c e i v e d w i t h i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d . The D i v i s i a i n d i c e s f o r a g g r e g a t e i m p o r t s o r e x p o r t s were computed f r o m t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d s e r i e s d i r e c t l y , r a t h e r t h a n f r o m t h e s u b a g g r e g a t e ( s e c t i o n l e v e l ) i n d i c e s . A l l p r i c e s e r i e s , n o r m a l i z e d f o r 1 9 6 1 , and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a l u e s e r i e s a r e r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e s A." IV and A . V . The q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s c a n be o b t a i n e d by d i v i d i n g t h e v a l u e s e r i e s by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p r i c e s e r i e s . T h o s e q u a n t i t y i n d i c e s , h o w e v e r , w o u l d n o t be e x a c t D i v i s i a i n d i c e s . - 89 - 2.3.3 Corrections for Import Duties and Re-exports If those data are to be used i n the framework of production theory, the prices we are interested in are the prices to the producer It would have therefore been desirable to correct the existing (f.o.b. prices for transportation, insurance and duties. Unfortunately, i t was not possible to find data on transportation or insurance costs, particularly since we would have had to distinguish between Canadian and foreign agents. Similarly, to be consistent one has to consider either imports net of re-exports, or add re-exports to the export figures. In the absence of any data on imports for home use only, we were l e f t with the second alternative. This treatment of re-exports is particularly ju s t i f i e d i f there is value added to these commodities while in Canada (e.g., storage or manufacturing costs). We thus compiled import duty and re-export value series for the same commodity groups for which we earlier calculated quantity series (see Tables A.XIV and A.XV). Import duties affect the price of imports faced by the producers since for a constant quantity, the cost of the imported commodity is increased by the amount of duties paid. If p^, q^, and HK are respectively the price, the quantity and the cost net of duties of imported commodity i , the following relationships hold: m. = p. q. and m. + d. = p* q. -1 -1 T 1 - 90 - where p$ i s the p r i c e of import i corrected for import duties, and m. + d. * 1 i p* = p. . l m. r i l A f t er correcting the disaggregated p r i c e series of imports, we computed again the D i v i s i a p r i c e indices at the section l e v e l and for t o t a l imports. These corrected p r i c e s e r i e s and the corresponding value s e r i e s are shown i n Table A.II. Re-exports on the other hand a f f e c t the disaggregated quantity indices only, i f we assume that t h e i r p r i c e i s the same as the p r i c e of the corresponding domestic exports. If p^, q^, and x i are now the p r i c e , quantity and value of export i , we have: x. = p. q. and x. + r . = p. q* x I , r i n i x. + r . hence q* = P i The p r i c e of each export subgroup i s thus unaffected. The corresponding weights, however, w i l l be a l t e r e d and t h i s w i l l a f f e c t the aggregate p r i c e s e r i e s . The ser i e s corrected f o r r e - exports are reported i n Table A.III. - 91 - TABLE A . I D o m e s t i c V a r i a b l e s : V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s , 1948 -1972 ( V a l u e and Q u a n t i t y S e r i e s f o r L a b o u r and C a p i t a l ) Y e a r I n d . Taxes I n v e s t m e n t C o n s u m p t i o n L a b o u r C a p i t a l 1948 849000 6379855 11134000 9461236 8229690 1949 802000 6927191 12322000 10124303 "8688129 1950 846000 7659285 13610000 10821065 9675240 1951 1122000 9386775 15714000 12170210 11280952 1952 1205000 9628392 17693000 13271248 12253294 1953 1251000 10357196 18675000 14191821 12003278 1954 11990002 10181440 19318000 14499874 11776078 1955 1270000 10711793 20862000 15139396 13254673 1956 1398000 12717352 22876000 16901824 13981761 1957 1437000 13689855 24301000 18299841 14553027 1958 1420000 13550405 25717000 18736274 15612832 1959 1587000 12764817 27313000 19987222 16044746 1960 1649000 13589611 28454000 20960936 16233069 1961c 1660000 13833590 29111000 21951281 16518078 1962 1748000 14160194 30877000 23440524 18232864 1963 1855000 15097368 32720000 24984175 19335039 1964 2202000 17375766 35040000 27170571 20626137 1965 2560000 19510448 38180000 29972478 22079498 1966 2788000 22255882 41932000 33498927 24289644 1967 2923000 23101816 45381000 37306179 24941203 1968 2997000 23452309 49563000 40549971 26590807 1969 3182000 26343233 53596000 45411099 28813116 1970 3214000 27626739 57456000 49198473 30297441 1971 3533000 29409101 62530000 53829597 32956260 1972 3970000 32190892 69436000 59628690 36490924 1948 0 .796 0 .743 0 . 6 9 7 • 0 . 8 3 8 0 . 5 2 2 11949 0 .734 0 . 7 8 0 0 . 7 3 0 0 . 8 5 2 0 . 5 3 7 11950 017,81 0 . 8 3 8 0 . 7 5 8 0 . 8 6 9 0 .558 1951 1'.051 0 .966 0 . 8 5 8 0 . 8 8 2 0 . 5 7 8 1952 1 .029 0 . 9 3 1 0 .907 0 . 8 8 9 0 . 6 3 0 1953 1C060 0 . 9 1 0 0 . 9 0 3 0 . 9 0 0 0 . 6 6 3 1954 0 . 9 9 1 0 . 8 9 0 0 .903 0 . 8 9 1 0 . 7 1 3 1955 0 . 9 4 9 0 .906 0 . 9 0 2 0 . 9 0 1 0 . 7 5 0 1956 0 . 9 5 5 0 .927 0 . 9 1 9 0 . 9 3 9 0 . 7 7 1 1957 ' £1 .032 0 . 9 4 1 0 . 9 4 5 0 .964 0 . 8 4 8 1958 0 .976 0 . 9 7 3 0 . 9 6 9 0 . 9 5 8 0 . 9 1 5 1959 1.024 0 . 9 8 2 0 . 9 7 9 0 . 9 8 1 0 .924 1960 0 . 9 8 8 0 . 9 9 0 0 .988 0 . 9 9 2 0 . 9 6 2 1961 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1962 0.'978 1 .013 1 .019 1 .042 1 .053 1963 0 .977 1 .034 1 .030 1 .073 1 .080 1964 1 .051 1 .053 1 .043 1 .118 1 .126 1965 1 .111 1 .082 1 .072 1 .169 1 .207 1966 1 .128 1 .131 1 .117 1 .195 1 .291 1967 1 .122 1 .163 1.156 1 .237 1 .386 1968 1 .082 1 .164 1 .206 1 .258 1 .465 1969 1 .101 1.218 1 .244 1 .308 1 .523 1970 1 .091 1 .254 1 .301 1 .356 1 .610 1971 1 .147 1.3.05 1 .343 1 .379 1 .678 1972 1 .225 1.387: 1.386 1 .4211 1.714 - 9 2 - TABLE A . I I V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r A g g r e g a t e I m p o r t s and By S e c t i o n ( S e r i e s C o r r e c t e d f o r Impor t D u t i e s ) Y e a r T o t a l S e c t i o n 1 , 2 S e c t i o n 3 S e c t i o n 4 S e c t i o n 5 1948 2804038 . ' - 342779 . 664950 . 8 2 1 5 7 0 . ' 9 7 4 7 3 9 . 1949 2 9 0 8 8 4 5 . 3 6 7 2 9 3 . 601992 . 8 3 6 2 7 4 . 1103286 . 1950 3 3 4 9 2 3 5 . 4 3 2 4 3 9 . 7 3 3 8 7 9 . 915458 . 1267459 . 1951 4286794 . 4 8 3 4 0 6 . 8 9 3 6 8 1 . 1221883 . 1 6 8 7 8 2 5 . 1952 4 1 8 6 3 1 4 . 4 7 0 8 6 7 . 698642 . 1 1 3 5 4 8 1 . 1881324 . 1953 4 5 8 5 7 5 3 . 4 7 4 0 7 2 . 6 5 1 7 4 5 . 1 2 3 6 8 0 1 . 2 2 2 3 1 3 5 . 1954 4 2 5 9 8 0 6 . 5 2 2 8 7 5 . 5 8 7 9 9 3 . 1 1 2 6 3 8 3 . 2 0 2 2 5 5 5 . 1955 4 9 3 2 1 0 9 . 5 3 5 2 8 0 . 692126 . 1 3 1 4 7 8 3 . 2389920 . 1956 5 9 9 1 3 0 2 . 5 9 8 8 5 3 . 8 1 7 7 3 3 . 1 6 7 7 6 0 9 . 2897107 . 1957 5 8 9 9 3 5 7 . 6 3 3 4 0 1 . 8 2 3 1 2 5 . 1 6 5 7 0 0 5 . 2785826 . 1958 5 4 6 1 3 6 6 . 648945 . 681959 . 1 4 6 2 7 8 9 . 2667673 . 1959 5 9 5 3 0 1 8 . 6 5 7 6 8 6 . 720835 . 1 5 4 6 0 8 9 . 3 0 2 8 4 0 8 . 1960 5 9 0 3 6 2 9 . 6 6 1 1 0 2 . 7 3 9 5 5 2 . 1 4 9 4 4 4 4 . 3 0 0 8 5 3 1 . 1961 6 1 9 9 9 4 9 . 7 0 5 8 3 4 . 7 6 9 1 2 2 . 1 5 3 9 4 6 1 . 3 1 8 5 5 3 2 . 1962 6772798 . 7 4 7 3 7 8 . 833228 . 1 6 6 4 6 5 5 . 3 5 2 7 5 3 7 . 1963 7 0 2 0 1 7 5 . 8 5 7 5 4 7 . 903030 . 1 7 3 7 9 3 5 . 3 5 2 1 6 6 3 . 1964 7915432 . 873514 . 968536 . 1 9 9 8 3 8 3 . 4 0 7 4 9 9 9 . 1965 9057694 . 859034 . 1 0 1 5 1 5 5 . 2321870 . 4 8 6 1 6 3 5 . 1966 10296754 . 900974 . 1033192 . 244,9044. 5913544 . 1967 11619102? ' 988398 . 1072494 . 2541188 . 7 0 1 7 0 2 2 . 1968 12892804 . 1 0 1 4 1 6 6 . 1 1 3 6 3 9 3 . 2 6 6 5 1 6 1 . , 8077084 . 1969 1 4 8 4 7 4 9 7 . 1 1 7 8 9 5 5 . 1090503 . 3 1 7 0 3 5 8 . 9 4 0 7 6 8 1 . 1970 1 4 6 8 1 3 3 4 . 1 2 2 9 5 0 8 . 1 1 7 5 2 6 5 . 3 1 3 7 2 8 2 . 9139279 . 1971 16449797 . 1278040 . 1 3 2 6 8 8 1 . 3 4 2 2 4 4 7 . 10422429 . 1972 1 9 6 9 8 4 0 3 . 1 5 3 2 2 7 7 . 1546659 . 3 9 1 1 2 1 4 . 12708253.: 1948 0 .826 1 .030 0 . 9 9 1 0 .837 0 . 7 3 6 1949 0 .842 1 .047 0 . 9 9 8 0 .836 0 . 7 6 9 1950 0 .904 1 .111 1.074 0 . 8 9 1 0 . 8 3 1 1951 1.024 1 .257 1.284 1 .027 0 .903 1952 0 . 9 1 4 1 .101 1 .080 0 . 9 0 0 0 .843 1953 0 . 9 0 5 1 .039 1 .066 0 . 9 0 3 0 . 8 3 9 1954 0 . 9 0 2 1 .096 11057 0 . 8 7 8 0 . 8 3 9 1955 0 . 9 2 2 1.064 1 .062 0 . 9 0 0 0 . 8 7 0 1956 0 . 9 4 8 1 .060 1 .056 0 . 9 2 0 0 . 9 1 2 1957 0 . 9 6 9 1 .102 1 .090 0 . 9 3 9 0 . 9 2 9 1958 0 .976 1.07.6 1 .057 0 . 9 4 6 0 . 9 5 1 1959 0 .964 0 . 9 8 5 1 .013 0 . 9 4 0 0 . 9 5 9 1960 0 .976 0 . 9 7 8 0 . 9 9 0 0 . 9 6 9 0 .976 1961 1 . 0 0 0 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1962 1 .050 1 .052 1 .040 1 .046 1.054 1963 1 .060 1 .147 1 .036 1 .043 1 .055 1964 1 .066 1 .143 1 .031 1 .067 1 .055 19651% , 0 5 ; 1 .057 1 .075 1 .045 1.067 1 .049 1966 1 .059 1 .071 1 .059 1 .052 1.057 1967 1 .064 1 .025 1 .052 1 .058 1 .071 1968 1 .085 1 .053 1 .063 1 .079 1 .093 1969 1 .109 1 .099 1 .085 1 .078 1 .123 1970 1 .129 1 .141 1 .099 1 .099 1 .140 1971 1 .145 1 .159 1 .116 1 .101 1 .159 1972 1 .178 1 .228 1 .205 1.124 1 .185 - 93 - TABLE A . I l l V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r A g g r e g a t e E x p o r t s and by S e c t i o n ( S e r i e s C o r r e c t e d f o r R e - e x p o r t s ) Y e a r T o t a l S e c t i o n 1,2 S e c t i o n 3 S e c t i o n 4 S e c t i o n 5 1948 3 0 7 6 1 0 7 . 929368 . 3 1 9 9 2 0 . 1 4 0 6 3 3 5 . 4 2 0 4 8 4 . 1949 2 9 9 5 0 3 1 . 981635 . . . 322030 . 1 3 2 1 0 5 5 . 3 7 0 3 1 1 . 1950 3 1 3 0 3 4 0 . 901862 . 3 4 6 1 7 8 . 1 6 1 2 2 6 9 . •270031. 1951 3 9 2 6 8 7 0 . 1 1 2 0 0 9 3 . 4 4 9 9 1 6 . 1 9 9 6 7 7 3 . 3 6 0 0 8 8 . 1952 4 3 1 8 4 4 8 . 1 3 2 9 1 6 2 . 4 8 6 1 0 0 . 2050503 . 4 5 2 6 8 3 . 1953 4 1 3 7 1 6 5 . 1 2 6 2 6 5 6 . ;4 '93508. 1962760 . 4 1 8 2 4 1 . 1954 3 9 1 1 2 9 7 . 984778 . 5 0 7 5 0 2 . 2058789 . 3 6 0 2 2 8 . 1955 4 3 0 8 9 7 7 . 9 0 5 3 9 5 . 7 0 6 9 7 2 . 2 3 7 7 6 2 3 . J3 .18987. 1956 4 8 0 6 9 7 1 . 1 0 9 9 9 8 5 . 9 0 0 2 6 2 . 2 4 4 9 0 9 6 . 3 5 7 6 2 8 . 1957 4 8 5 6 9 3 5 . 9 6 8 0 2 9 . 1053460 . 2416129 . 4 1 9 3 1 7 . 1958 . 4878984.. 1 1 3 6 2 8 9 . 979504 . 2258565.;" 504626 . 1959 5 1 2 4 4 1 8 . 1 0 7 8 1 6 8 . 1 0 9 9 5 7 7 . 2476972 . 4 6 9 7 0 1 . 1960 5 3 6 7 2 3 5 . 990957 . 113.1759; 2750666 . 4 9 3 8 5 3 . 1961 5 8 5 8 3 5 3 . 1 2 6 9 9 7 6 . 1 2 0 4 4 0 5 . 2 7 7 8 4 0 3 . 6 0 5 5 6 9 . 1962 6300764 . 1 2 4 6 1 9 1 . 1 3 7 0 5 2 1 . 2 9 1 5 7 2 1 . 7 6 8 3 3 1 . 1963 6919939 . 1469732 . 1435750 . 3 1 2 0 5 4 7 . 8 9 3 9 1 0 . 1964* / < : 8 2 3 6 3 7 6 . 1 8 4 8 9 0 5 . 1622478 . 3 5 2 1 3 8 3 . 1243610 . 1965 8 7 0 4 2 8 3 . 1 7 1 9 5 6 3 . 1772000 . 3 7 5 2 4 1 8 . 1460302 . 1966 1 0 2 6 4 0 8 5 . 1 9 7 6 5 0 7 . 1 9 5 6 8 3 3 . 4 0 2 9 9 4 1 . 2300804 . 1967 I135697/8S-- 1 6 5 6 8 5 2 . 2115962 . 4 2 5 1 4 2 3 . 3 3 3 2 7 4 1 . 1968 135802611 1624958 . 2475152 . 4 9 1 5 4 8 2 . 4 5 6 4 6 6 9 . 1969 1 4 8 9 2 5 4 4 . 1 4 8 5 8 7 6 . . 2473726 . 5240488 . 5692454 . 1970 1 6 7 8 5 4 2 2 . 1 9 0 0 9 5 9 . 3 0 9 3 3 0 7 . 5 9 4 5 8 8 5 . 5 8 4 5 2 7 1 . 1971 1 7 7 8 8 1 9 1 . 2131414 . 3 2 7 1 7 5 6 . 5916328 . 6468693 . 1972 20091637 . 2381128 . 3 5 6 9 5 5 2 . 6 6 9 7 2 9 1 . 7443666 . 1948 0 . 8 0 0 0 . 9 2 8 0 .704 0 . 7 9 8 0 . 6 5 0 1949 0 .826 0 . 9 7 5 0 . 7 3 1 0 .803 0 .696 1950 0 .867 0 . 9 9 2 0 .787 0 .856 0 . 7 3 1 1951 0 .977 1.037 0 . 9 2 0 0 . 9 9 9 0 .816 1952 0 . 9 7 1 1 .008 0 . 9 1 5 1.004 0 . 8 2 2 1953 0 . 9 4 5 0 . 9 8 8 0 .887 0 . 9 6 8 0 .818 1954 0 . 9 2 3 . 0 .938 0 .868 0.957. 0 . 8 1 3 1955 0 . 9 4 9 0 .937 0 .906 0 . 9 9 3 0 . 8 3 0 1956 0 . 9 8 1 0 .934 0 .956 1 .035 0 . 8 7 5 1957 0 . 9 7 2 0 .918 0 . 9 5 3 1 .016 0 . 9 0 9 1958 0 .964 0 .927 0 .934 0 . 9 9 9 0 . 9 2 8 1959 0 . 9 8 0 0 .953 0 .946 1 .011 0 . 9 4 8 1960 0 . 9 9 1 0 .964 0 . 9 8 3 1 .009 0 . 9 7 0 1961 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1962 1 .034 1 .082 1 .041 1 .014 1 .020 1963 1 .039 1 .072 1 .066 1 .016 1 .026 1964 1 .057 1 .094 1 .075 1 .037 1 .036 1965 1 .066 1 .075 1 .102 1 .052 1 .046 1966 1 .100 1 .119 1 .153 1 .081 1 .063 1967 1 .117 1 .159 1 .175 1 .096 1 .061 1968 1 .149 1 .132 1 .203 1 .163 1 .080 1969 1 .176 1 .121 1 .227 1 .209 1 .100 1970 1 .202 1 .084 1 .280 1 .240 1.127 1971 1 .204 1 .109 1 .253 1 .225 1 .150 1972 1 .244 1 .192 1 .273 1 .280 1 .171 - 94 - TABLE A . I V V a l u e and P r i c e S e r i e s f o r A g g r e g a t e I m p o r t s and by S e c t i o n Y e a r T o t a l S e c t i o n 1 ,2 S e c t i o n 3 S e c t i o n 4 S e c t i o n 5 1948 2587822 . 3 0 5 5 7 7 . 6 5 0 8 9 0 . 7 5 3 2 6 6 . 8 7 8 0 8 9 . 1949 2687671 . 3 2 6 2 5 1 . 5 9 1 7 3 5 . 7 6 5 9 4 2 . 1 0 0 3 7 4 3 . 1950 3 1 0 0 8 2 7 . 3 9 4 9 8 9 . 7 2 3 6 8 2 . 8 3 9 9 2 7 . 1142229 . 1951 . 3 9 5 4 6 9 0 . 4 3 7 5 7 9 . ' 8 8 2 2 0 0 . 1120985 . 1513926 . 1952 .53845349. 4 1 8 3 0 1 . 6 8 8 9 7 0 . 1 0 4 3 1 7 0 . 1694908 . 1953 4 1 9 0 3 5 0 . 4 1 6 6 8 3 . 6 4 2 1 7 1 . 1 1 2 2 8 0 5 . 2008691 . 1954 3 8 8 9 9 1 5 . . ' •468710. 579935.. 1023909 . 1 8 1 7 3 6 1 . 1955 4 4 5 0 5 3 2 3 . : 4 7 5 8 5 4 , r ,683690. 1197282 . 2148497 . 1956 5 4 7 3 0 0 1 . 536016 . 8 0 7 6 2 5 . 1540327 . 2589033 . 1957 5 3 9 9 0 6 9 . 568188 . 813889 . 1515484 . 2501508 . 1958 4 9 7 1 9 8 4 . ; 574252.% 6 7 4 6 9 2 . 1322748 2400292 . 1959 5429420 . 5 8 2 9 6 3 . 7 1 3 7 6 2 . 1 4 0 0 0 0 3 . 2732692 . 1960 5 3 8 9 1 0 2 . 5 8 8 5 1 5 . <:>732542. 1 3 4 8 4 6 6 . 2719579 . 1961 5667054 . 628804 . - 7 6 2 7 9 7 . 1 3 8 8 1 8 1 . 2887272 . 1962 6130274 . 6 6 4 4 2 1 . 826464 . 1 4 8 8 7 8 1 . 3 1 5 0 6 0 8 . 1963 6419852 . 7 8 0 1 5 0 . 896296 . 1571009 . 3 1 7 2 3 9 7 . 1964 7 2 6 9 5 7 2 . 794720 . ' 9 6 0 6 6 2 . 1 8 1 2 9 8 8 . 3 7 0 1 2 0 2 . 1965 8366668 . 769692 . 1006274 . 2 1 1 4 4 2 3 . 4 4 7 6 2 7 9 . 1966 9544408 . 8 0 4 6 5 1 . 1 0 2 3 2 1 2 . 2233137 . 5483408 . 1967 10805934 . 8 8 3 4 9 1 . 1062268 . 2310208 . 6549967 . 1968 1 2 0 9 9 0 7 1 . 918187 . 1126744 . 2434586 . 7619554 . 1969 1 3 9 3 8 2 9 2 . 1062662 . 1085460 . 2 9 0 5 3 3 1 . 8884839 . 1970 13790274 . 1 1 1 5 5 5 2 . 1171572 . 2885422 . 8 6 1 7 7 2 8 . 1971 1 5 4 5 0 9 5 1 . 1 1 5 6 8 5 1 . 1 3 2 1 7 2 5 . 3140164 . 9 8 3 2 2 1 1 . 1972 18466946 . 1 4 0 0 4 9 1 . 1539784 . 3 5 7 8 9 9 1 . 11947680 . 1948 0 . 8 1 9 1 .009 0 .987 0 .844 0 . 7 2 2 1949 0 .837 1 .030 0 . 9 9 5 0 . 8 4 3 0 . 7 5 9 1950 0 . 9 0 0 1 .124 1 .076 0 . 8 9 8 0 . 8 1 4 1951 1 .018 12.266 1 .288 1 .033 0 . 8 8 0 1952 0 . 9 0 9 1 .091 1 .082 0 . 9 1 0 0 . 8 2 6 1953 0 . 8 9 9 1 .016 1.067 0 . 9 0 5 0 . 8 2 8 1954 0 .897 ; 1 .093 1.057 0 . 8 8 0 0 .826 1955 0 .916 1 .054 1 .063 0 .904 0 .856 1956 0 . 9 4 2 1 .060 1 .056 0 . 9 3 2 0 .893 1957 0 .966 1 .106 1 .091 0 . 9 4 8 0 .914 1958 0 . 9 7 0 1 .069 1 .057 0 . 9 4 8 0 . 9 3 9 1959 0 . 9 5 9 0 . 9 7 5 1 .014 0 . 9 4 1 0 . 9 5 0 1960 0 . 9 7 2 0 .973 0 . 9 9 0 0 .968 0 . 9 6 9 1961 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1 .000 1962 1 .040 1 .048 1 .040 1.037 1 .039 1963 1 .059 1 .176 1.037 1 .044 1 .045 1964 1 .068 1 .171 1 .032 1 .071 1 .054 1965 1.067 1.084 1 .046 1 .075 1 .062 1966 1 .073 1 .080 1 .059 1 .063 1 .076 1967 1 .080 1 .036 1 .052 1 .066 1 .095 1968 1 . 1 0 8 1 .075 1 .064 1 .092 1 .125 1969 1 .134 1 .116 1 .089 1 .094 1.157 1970 1 .155 1 .169 1 .105 1 .118 1 .175 1971 1 .169 1 .187 1 .120 1 .119 1 .191 1972 1 .202 , 1 .272 1 .210 1 .141 1 .214 TABLE A.V - 95 - Value and Price Series For Aggregate Exports and by Section Year Total Section 1,2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5 1948 3042581. 927404. . 314346. 1400578. 400253. 1949 2966539. 980190. 316180. 1315911. 354258. 1950 3092377. 899873. 338716. 1605960. 247828. 1951 3878880. 1117915 440337. 1986866. '333762. 1952 4264678. 1324634. 476953. 2042468. 420623. 1953 4083276. 1260162. 484749. 1954534. 383831. 1954 8347035. 981925. 498399. 2050130. 316581. 1955 4241183. 900822. 697442. 2368036. 274883. 1956 4737122. 1096419. 890948. 2439434. .310321. 1957 4766183. 964766. 1041168. 2403659. 356590. 1958 4778239. 1133127. . 965707. 2244330. 435075. 1959 5010222. 1074622. 1081786. 2463222. 390592. 1960 5241615. S987016. 1112653. 2733618. 408328. 1961 5743082. 1264704. 1195442. 2777345. 505591. 1962 6163673 1240189. 1361595. 3907126. 654763. 1963 6773815. 1461828. 1425951. 3106898. 779138. 1964 8068047. 1840400. 1616145. 3502496. 1109006. 1965 8501566. 1708951. 1763701. 3728769. 1300145. 1966 10045312. 1966295. 1947625. 4012068. 2119324. 1967 11098204. 1644608. 2108298. 4229365. 3115933. 1968 13232262. 1613122. 2467578. 4855098. 4296464. 1969 14468431. 1464211. 2463323. 5162695. 5378202. 1970 16369868. 1868453. 3084013. 5866452. 5550950. 1971 17366053. 2112352. 3263710. 5796816. 6183175. 1972 19618867. '22355083. 3559586. 6568031 7136167. 1948 0.801 0.928 0.703 0.798 0.649 1949 0.828 0.976 0.731 0.803 0.695 1950 0.868 0.992 0.786 0.856 0.730 1951 0.977 1.037 0.919 0.999 0.814 1952 0.973 1.008 0.916 1.004 0.821 1953 0.946 0.988 0.887 0.968 0.817 1954 0.924 0.938 0.867 0.957 0.812 1955 0.949 0.937 0.906 0.993 0.828 1956 0.982 0.934 0.957 1.035 0.873 1957 0.972 0.918 0.953 1.016 0.907 1958 0.964 0.927 0.935 0.999 0.926 1959 0.979 0.952 0.946 1.011 0.948 1960 0.991 0.964 0.983 1.009 0.970 1961 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1962 1.034 1.083 1.041 1.014 1.019 1963 1.039 1.073 1.066 1.016 1.025 1964 1.057 1.095 1.075 1.037 1.035 1965 1.066 1.07,6- 1.102 1.052 1.044 1966;'. JOQ 1.100 1.120 1.153 1.081 1.061 1967 1.117 1.161 1.175 1.096 1.058 1968 1.149 1.133 1.203 1.163 1.078 1969 1.176 1.123 1.227 1.210 1.097 1970 1.200 1.084 1.280 1.239 1.123 1971 1.202 1.109 1.253 1.224 1.145 1972 1.241 1.190 1.273 1.279 1.167 - 96 - TABLE A.VI Summary Table of Disaggregated Import Series Series - Subperiod Subperiod 1 2 3 Series 1 2 3 Section 1,2 Bananas X Tea X X X Citrus Fruits X Whisky X Fruits, Dried X Fresh Fruits X X Nuts X Indian Corn X X Vegetables* X X X Meat X Sugar X X X Ind• Chemicals X Cocoa Beans X X X 12 Live Animals X X Coffee X X X Section 3 Soyabeans X X X Iron Ore* X X X Furs-,, Undressed X X Coal, Anthr. X X Cotton, Raw X X X Coal, Bitum* X X X Wool,.JRaw* X X X Petroleum X X X Wool, Tops X X X Rubber 3* X X X Sisal X Hides X X Synthetic 3 X X Bauxite, Alum. X X Paperboard 3 X Copper Ores X action 4 Vegetable Oils* X X F e r t i l i z e r s A X Cotton, Fabrics* X X X F e r t i l i z e r s B X Jute* X X X Paint 4 X Worsteds X X X Ind. Chemicals X X X 4* - 97 - TABLE A . V I ( C o n t i n u e d ) S e c t i o n 4 S y n t h . F a b r i c s 4 x P a p e r b o a r d 4 * x R o l l i n g M i l l P r o d f . x T i n , B l o c k s B r i c k s G l a s s * G a s o l i n e * x x x x X X X X X X X X Rubber 4 * C o a t e d F a b r i c s V e n e e r s Heavy F u e l s I n o r g . C h e m i c a l s O r g . C h e m i c a l s x x x x x x S e c t i o n 5 Newspape rs X C h i n a w a r e X P a p e r b o a r d 5 X P a i n t 5 X Farm M a c h i n e r y X X X I n d . C h e m i c a l s 5 X M a c h i n e r y * X X C o n s . G o o d s , M i s c . x" A u t o m o b i l e s * X X X Rubber 5 X E l e c t r i c . A p p a r - X X X D r i l l i n g M a c h i n e r y a t u s * The x i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p a r t i c u l a r s e r i e s i s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s u b p e r i o d . The * i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p r e - and p o s t - 1 9 6 0 s u b s e r i e s a r e n o t e n t i r e l y c o n s i s t e n t due t o c h a n g e s i n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . - 98 - TABLE A.VII Summary Table of Disaggregated Export Series Series Subperiod Series Subperiod 1 2 3 1 2 3 Section 1,2 Wheat X X X Cattle, Dairy X Barley X X X Cattle, Slaughter X Whisky X X X Milk X X Wheat Flower X X X Eggs i n the Shell X X Oats X X Cheese X X Tobacco X X X Fish & Fish Prod. X X X Beef & Veal X X X 12* Live Animals X X Section 3 Fish & Fish Prod. 3 X Nickel 3 X X Leather 3 X Zinc 3 X Furs, Undressed X X X S i l v e r 3 X Hides X X X Platinum* X X Pulpwood X X X Asbestos A X Iron Ore X X X Asbestos B X X Copper 3 X Coal X X Lead 3 X Petroleum X Aluminum 3 X • Natural Gas X Section 4 Fish & Fish Prod. 4 X Lead 4 X Leather A X Aluminum 4* X X X Leather B XX Nickel 4 X X X Newsprint X XX X Zinc 4 X X X Wood Pulp X XX X Silver 4 X Planks X S X X Abrasives* X X X Shingles X six F e r t i l i z e r s X X - 99 - TABLE A . V I I S e c t i o n 4 P l y w o o d X X P i g I r o n X X X Coppe r 4 X X X S e c t i o n 5 Farm M a c h i n e r y * X X X M a c h i n e r y * X X X A u t o m o b i l e s * X X X ( C o n t i n u e d ) R o l l i n g M i l l P r o d . x x E l e c t r i c i t y x x C h e m i c a l s x C o n s . G o o d s , M i s c . x x Rubbe r x x An x i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p a r t i c u l a r s e r i e s i s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s u b p e r i o d . The * i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p r e - i i a n d p o s t - 1 9 6 0 s u b s e r i e s a r e n o t e n t i r e l y c o n s i s t e n t due t o changes i n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . - 100 - TABLE A . V I I I D i s a g g r e g a t e d Impor t S e r i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 0 Code Numbers and 1948 W e i g h t s S e r i e s W e i g h t (%) Code Number Bananas C i t r u s F r u i t s F r u i t s , D r i e d N u t s V e g e t a b l e s Soyabeans Sugar C o c o a C o f f e e Tea W h i s k y V e g e t a b l e O i l s F u r s , U n d r e s s e d 0.93 0.91 0.51 1.17 0.32 0..50 3.36 0.80 1.25 0.86 0.44 0.51 1.18 6 , 9 , 1 0 , 13 3 1 , 3 2 , 3 4 , 3 6 - 4 2 81 -108 1 1 1 - 1 2 8 , 1 3 5 , 136 162 2 6 2 , 263 271 2 8 3 , 284 3 1 9 / 3 2 1 - 3 3 6 1515 1 6 0 1 - 1 6 2 8 , 231-236 2155 -2169 C o t t o n , Raw C o t t o n , F a b r i c s J u t e W o o l , Raw W o o l , Tops W o r s t e d s S i s a l S y n t h . F a b r i c s 3 S y n t h . F a b r i c s 4 3 . 3 9 1 .33 1 .04 1 .35 1 .43 1.91 0 . 6 8 1 .08 3001 3 0 2 6 - 3 0 5 0 3134 3261 -3264 3 2 6 6 , 3 2 6 8 , 3269 3288 3413 3365-3367 3 3 7 1 - 3 3 7 3 Newspape rs P a p e r b o a r d 3 P a p e r b o a r d 4 P a p e r b o a r d 5 1 .13 1 .20 4 2 6 6 , 4 4 2 6 7 , 4310 4209 4159-4260* /Paper 3 & 5 4 1 7 9 , 4 1 8 8 , 4 2 0 2 , 4 2 0 4 , 4 2 1 1 , 4 2 1 5 , 4 2 1 6 , 4 2 2 0 , 4 2 2 9 - 4 2 3 1 , 4 2 3 5 , 4 2 3 8 , 4 2 4 1 - 4 2 4 6 , 4 2 5 3 - 4 2 6 0 - 101 - TABLE A . V I I I ( C o n t i n u e d ) I r o n Ore 0 . 5 9 R o l l i n g M i l l P r o d . 1 .41 Farm M a c h i n e r y 5 . 3 3 M a c h i n e r y 8 . 2 6 A u t o m o b i l e s 5 . 8 0 T i n , B l o c k s 0 . 5 1 E l e c t r i c A p p . 3 .18 B r i c k s 0 . 4 6 C h i n a w a r e 0 . 5 8 C o a l A n t h r . 2 . 6 5 C o a l B i t u m . 6 . 0 0 G l a s s 0 . 5 3 P e t r o l e u m 9 .03 G a s o l i n e 2 . 1 8 F e r t i l i z e r s 0 . 5 8 P a i n t 4 1 .07 P a i n t C S •' s ? I n d . C h e m i c a l s 2 0 . 9 2 I n d . C h e m i c a l s 4 - I n d . C h e m i c a l s 5 - C o n s . G o o d s , M i s c . 2 . 1 5 Rubber 3 Rubber 4 Rubbe r 5 1 .51 5001 5070 -5177 5 2 9 0 - 5 3 6 3 5441 -5599 5 2 4 2 , 5 2 4 5 , 5 2 5 2 , 5 6 4 1 - 5 6 5 0 , 5 6 6 1 , 5672 6101 6139 - 6325 7021-7034 7046 7061 -7063 7064 7090 -7100 7153 7 1 6 1 , 7 1 6 2 , 7 1 6 4 , 7 1 6 5 , 7 1 6 9 , 7171 -7175 8149 -8167 8171 -8 216/.8211 8211 8305 8 0 0 1 - 8 0 3 8 , 3251-8380 ' / .8305, 8 0 1 0 * 8024 8 0 1 0 , 8024 9 0 0 1 - 9 0 2 5 , 9 0 5 0 - 9 0 9 2 , 9 1 1 7 - 9 1 2 1 , 9 1 8 1 - 9 1 8 5 , 9 2 5 0 , 9 2 6 1 , 9275 1 6 7 8 , 1 6 8 0 , 1 6 8 3 , 1687 1678-1732#Rubber 3 & 5 1702,•• 1 7 0 3 , 1 7 0 5 - 1 7 0 7 , 1 7 1 0 , 1 7 1 2 , 1 7 1 4 - 1 7 1 9 , 1 7 2 1 , 1 7 2 3 , 1 7 2 5 , 1 7 3 1 , 1732 - 102 - TABLE A . V I I I ( C o n t i n u e d ) G r o u p s A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l T e x t i l e s Wood I r o n N o n - F e r r o u s N o n - M e t a l l i c C h e m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s 1 6 . 4 8 13.3,0 2 . 8 0 2 9 . 6 7 5 . 9 1 2 2 . 9 9 4 . 4 9 4 . 3 7 R e s i d u a l S e r i e s A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l 1 ,2 A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l 3 A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l 4 A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l 5 T e x t i l e s 3 T e x t i l e s 4 r e s i d u a l s e r i e s o f g roup 1 and 2 1 5 7 1 - 1 5 7 3 , 1 5 7 6 - 1 5 7 9 , 1 6 4 6 - 1 6 6 9 , 1744-1766 (7.1758, 1 7 5 9 ) , 1 8 1 1 , 1 8 1 3 , 1 8 1 6 , 1 8 2 5 , 1 8 2 7 , 1 8 3 3 , 1 8 3 6 , 1 8 4 1 , 1 8 4 3 , 2 0 5 1 , 2 0 5 2 , 2 0 8 1 , 2 0 8 6 , 2 0 7 3 , 2 0 9 3 , 2 1 5 2 , 2 1 7 4 , 2 1 9 1 - 2 1 9 3 , 2 2 0 0 - 2 2 0 6 , 2 2 1 9 , 2 2 8 3 , 2 3 0 7 , 2 3 2 1 , 2 3 3 6 , 2 3 3 9 , 2 3 4 3 , 2344 1 5 8 0 , 1 5 8 1 , 1 5 8 4 , 1 8 2 4 , 1 8 3 2 , 1 8 3 5 , 1 8 4 0 , 1846 2 0 5 3 , 2 0 5 4 , 2 0 8 4 , 2 0 8 5 , 2 1 7 2 , 2 1 7 3 , 2 1 7 5 , 2 1 8 1 , 2 2 1 0 , 2 2 1 1 , 2 2 1 3 , 2 2 1 5 - 2 2 1 8 , 2 2 2 0 , 2 2 2 1 , 2 2 2 4 - 2 2 2 6 , 2 2 9 4 , 2 2 9 5 , 2 2 9 7 , 2 2 9 9 , 2 2 3 9 , 2 2 4 1 , 2 2 4 3 , 2244 , 2 2 8 8 , 2 2 8 9 , 2 2 9 3 , 2 3 0 2 , 2 3 0 4 , 2 3 0 8 , 2 3 2 0 , 233.1-2333, 2338 2 0 8 3 , 2 1 9 5 , 2 2 3 2 - 2 2 3 8 , 2 2 4 5 , 2 2 4 6 , 2 3 0 0 , 2303 3 0 0 2 , 3 1 1 1 - 3 1 1 3 , 3 2 0 1 , 3 2 0 2 , 3 2 6 5 , 3 2 6 7 , 3 2 7 0 , 3 4 1 1 , 3 4 1 2 , 3 4 1 4 , 3 4 2 1 , 3 4 2 3 , 3 4 5 1 - 3 4 5 3 3 0 0 4 - 3 0 0 9 , 3 0 1 1 - 3 0 2 3 , 3 0 5 1 - 3 0 5 5 , 3 0 8 3 , 3 0 8 5 , 3 0 8 6 , 3 0 9 2 , 3 0 9 7 , 3 1 1 4 , 3 1 1 5 , 3 1 2 1 - 3 1 2 6 , 3 1 3 2 , 3 1 3 5 - 3 1 3 9 , 3 1 7 4 , 3 1 7 9 , 3 1 8 0 , 3 2 1 3 , 3 2 1 6 , 3 2 2 4 , 3 2 2 8 - 3 2 3 0 , 3 2 7 3 - 3 2 7 7 , 3 2 8 1 - 3 2 8 4 , 3 2 8 6 , 3 2 8 7 , 3 2 8 9 , 3 2 9 1 - 3 2 9 3 , 3 3 4 3 , 3345 ( 0 . 5 ) , 3 3 6 0 - 3 3 6 2 , 3 3 6 4 , 3 3 6 8 , 3 3 6 9 , 3 3 9 0 , 3 3 9 1 , 3 4 0 1 , 3 4 2 0 , 3 4 2 2 , 3 4 2 8 , 3 4 5 4 , 3 4 6 1 , 3 4 6 3 - 3 4 6 5 , 3 4 7 2 - 3 4 7 4 , 3 4 7 6 , 3 4 7 8 - 3 4 8 1 , 3 4 8 3 - 3 4 8 6 , 3 4 8 8 , 3 4 8 9 , 3 5 0 1 , 3 5 2 4 , 3 5 4 8 , 3 5 5 1 , 3 5 5 3 , 3 5 5 9 - 3 5 6 1 , 3 5 6 3 , 3 5 6 4 , 3 5 6 7 , 3 5 6 8 , 3 5 7 0 , 3 5 7 4 , 3576 - 103 - TABLE A.VIII (Continued) Textiles 5 3062-3064, 3066-3074, 3082, 3084, 3087, 3088, 3091, 3094-3096, 3098, 3100, 3162, 3171-3173, 3175-3178, 3244, 3246-3248, 3251, 3252, 3301-3310, 3320-3329, 3342, 3344, 3345 (0.5),;3376, 3378^3380, 3383-3388, 3392, 3393, 3424, 3425, 3429, 3460, 3475, 3487, 3510-3512, 3514-3522, 3550, 3552, 3554, 3557, 3566, 3573 Wood 3 Wood 4 Wood 5 4002, 4003, 4021, 4024, 4026, 4081, 4083, 4085 4011, 4022, 4025, 4032-4034, 4041-4043, 4045-4059, 4067, 4069, 4071, 4073-4079, 4084, 4094, 4097, 4099, 4101-4105, 4112, 4114, 4118, 4119, 4130, 4132-4136;, 4142 (0.5), 4143, 4148, 4150, 4153, 4155, 4157 4091, 4120, 4125, 4141, 4142 (0.5), 4144- 4146, 4151, 4152, 4154, 4156, 4158, 4260, 4262, 4263, 4265, 4268, 4269, 4271, 4272, 4290-4296, 4301-4303, 4305-4309, 4311 Iron 3 Iron 4 Iron 5 Non-Ferrous 3 Non-Ferrous 4 5031, 5032, 5033 5010-5015, 5018-5023, 5025, 5027, 5029, 5044-5052, 5054, 5055, 5058, 5059, 5181, 5182, 5185-5193, 5195-5199, 5200, 5201, 5203-5211, 5213-5221, 5223-5225, 5231, 5233- 5236, 5381, 5391, 5393-5395, 5411-5413, 5422, 5423, 5594, 5691, 5694, 5700 , :»7 . 5708, 5709, 5713, 5714 (0.36), 5729, 5894 5240-5244, 5246, 5248, 5251, 5253-5260, 5265-5268, 5275, 5280, 5283, 5371-5378, 5400-5404, 5421, 5425, 5426, 5600-5607, 5621T5632',v,5651-5658, 5660, 5663, 5664, 5674, 5680-5683, 5685-5687, 5689, 5690, 5692y55693, 5695-5699, 5701-5703, 5706, 5714 (0.64), 5715-5731, 5733-5740, 5892-5893 6001-6003, 6005, ̂ 6022, 6110, 6208, 6210, 6215-6217, 6257 6004, 6006, 6007, 6009-6013, 6014 (0.72), 6015, 6023-6025, 6031, 6033, 6034, 6035 (0.67), 6042-6044, 6046-6048, 6050-6052, 6070-6075, 6082 (0.5), 6084, 6085, 6087, 6088, 609$, 6102, 6112, 6113, 6115, 6116, (0.6), 6117, 6119-6121, 6123-6126, 6211/ 6212, 6218-6220, 6229, 6235, 6238-6241, 6247-6253, 6258, 6259 - 104 - TABLE A . V I I I ( C o n t i n u e d ) N o n - F e r r o u s 5 N o n - M e t a l l i c 1 , 2 N o n - M e t a l l i c 3 N o n - M e t a l l i c 4 N o n - M e t a l l i c 5 C h e m i c a l s 2 C h e m i c a l s 3 C h e m i c a l s 4 6014 ( 0 . 2 8 ) , 6 0 2 6 , 6 0 3 0 , 6 0 3 2 , 6035 ( 0 . 3 3 ) , 6 0 3 7 , 6 0 4 9 , 6 0 6 1 - 6 0 6 3 , 6 0 6 5 , 6 0 6 8 , 6 0 7 7 , 6082 ( 0 . 5 ) , 6 0 8 6 , 6093 , . 6 0 9 4 , 6 1 0 3 , 6116 ( 0 . 4 ) , 6 1 2 7 - 6 1 3 6 , 6 1 3 8 , 6 1 8 1 - 6 1 8 3 , ' 6 1 9 1 - 6 1 9 7 , 6 1 9 9 , 6 2 0 0 , 6 2 0 1 , 6 2 2 1 - 6 2 2 3 , 6 2 2 5 - 6 2 2 8 , 6 2 3 0 , 6 2 3 3 , 6 2 3 4 , 6 2 3 6 , 6 2 3 7 , 6260 7296 7 0 1 1 - 7 0 1 6 , 7 0 1 9 , 7 0 6 0 , 7 0 6 1 , 7 0 6 6 , 7 0 6 7 , 7 1 3 1 , 7 1 5 4 , 7 1 5 8 , 7 1 9 2 , 7 1 9 3 , 7 2 0 0 , 7 2 1 0 , 7 2 1 5 , 7 2 2 1 , 7 2 3 1 , 7 2 3 3 , 7 2 5 6 - 7 2 5 8 , 7 2 6 3 - 7 2 6 6 , 7 2 6 8 , 7 2 7 2 , 7 2 7 3 , 7 2 8 0 , 7 2 8 1 , 7 2 8 9 , 7 2 9 0 , 7 2 9 7 - 7 2 9 9 , 7301 ( 0 . 2 5 ) , 7 3 0 2 , 7304 7 0 0 1 - 7 0 0 5 , 7 0 1 7 , 7 0 1 8 , 7 0 5 3 , 7 0 5 5 , 7 0 5 6 , 7 0 7 0 - 7 0 7 4 , 7 0 7 7 , 7 0 8 1 , 7 0 8 4 , 7 0 8 6 , 7 1 1 1 - 7 1 1 3 , 7 1 1 9 - 7 1 2 3 , 7 1 2 7 - 7 1 2 9 , 7 1 3 2 , 7 1 3 3 , 7 1 3 8 , 7 1 3 9 , 7 1 4 1 , 7 1 4 3 , 7 1 5 1 , 7 1 5 6 , 7 1 6 3 , 7 1 6 6 - 7 1 6 8 , 7 1 8 1 - 7 1 8 3 , 7 1 8 5 T 7 1 8 7 , 7 1 9 1 , 7 1 9 4 - 7 1 9 6 , 7 1 9 9 , 7 2 0 2 , 7 2 0 3 , 7 2 1 6 , 7 2 1 8 , 7 2 2 3 - 7 2 2 7 , 7 2 3 2 , 7 2 3 4 , 7 2 3 5 , 7 2 4 1 , 7 2 4 3 , 7 2 6 1 , 7 2 6 9 , 7 2 7 1 , 7 2 7 4 , 7 2 7 5 , 7 2 8 2 - 7 2 8 4 , 7 2 8 6 , 7 2 8 8 , . 7 2 9 1 , 7 2 9 2 , 7 2 9 5 , 7 3 0 0 , 7301 ( 0 . 7 5 ) , 7 3 0 3 , 7305 7 0 4 3 , 7 0 4 5 , 7 0 4 7 , 7 0 4 8 , 7 0 5 1 , 7 0 5 2 , 7 0 7 9 , 7 0 8 0 , 7 0 8 2 , 7 0 8 3 , 7 0 8 5 , 7 0 8 7 - 7 0 8 9 , 7114 7 1 2 4 - 7 1 2 6 , 7 1 8 4 , 7 2 5 4 , 7 2 7 0 , 7284 8 4 2 3 , 8433 8115 8046 8095 8116 8388 8408 8417 8437 8650 8800 , 8069 , 8104 - 8 1 1 9 , , 8389 , 8410 , 8422 , 8500 , 8670 , 8830 - 8 0 7 3 , 8 0 7 8 , 8 0 9 1 , 8 0 9 2 , 8 0 9 4 , - 8 1 0 6 , 8 1 0 9 , 8 1 1 1 , 8 1 1 3 , 8 1 1 4 , 8 1 2 1 , 8 1 3 1 - 8 1 3 4 , 8 1 3 6 - 8 1 3 8 , , 8 3 9 1 , 8 3 9 4 - 8 3 9 9 , 8 4 0 0 - 8 4 0 6 , - 8 4 1 2 , 8 4 1 4 , 8415 ( 0 . 8 5 ) , 8 4 1 6 , , 8 4 2 5 , 8 4 2 8 - 8 4 3 1 , 8 4 3 4 , 8 4 3 5 , , 8 5 3 0 , 8 5 5 0 , 8 5 7 0 , 8 6 0 0 , 8 6 3 0 , , 8700 ( 0 . 4 ) , 8 7 2 0 , 8 7 5 0 , 8 7 7 0 , , 8 8 5 0 , 8 8 7 0 , 8 9 0 0 , 8 9 3 0 , 8950 ( 0 . 4 ) C h e m i c a l s 5 8 0 5 2 - 8 0 5 4 , 8 0 5 6 , 8 0 5 9 , 8 0 7 4 - 8 0 7 6 , 8 0 7 9 , 8 0 8 1 - 8 0 8 6 , 8 1 3 5 , 8 2 2 1 , 8 2 2 2 , 8 2 2 4 , 8 2 3 2 , 8 2 3 4 - 8 2 3 6 , 8 2 3 8 , 8 3 9 2 , 8 3 9 3 , 8 4 0 7 , 8 4 1 3 , . 8415 ( 0 . 1 5 ) , 8 4 3 2 , 8700 ( 0 . 6 ) , 8 9 5 0 , ( 0 . 6 ) M i s c e l l a n e o u s 1 , 2 9103 - 105 - TABLE A . V I I I ( C o n t i n u e d ) M i s c e l l a n e o u s 3 9269 M i s c e l l a n e o u s 4 9 1 3 5 , 9 1 8 7 , 9 1 9 9 , 9 2 0 9 , 9 2 1 5 , 9 2 4 9 , 9 2 5 3 , 9262 M i s c e l l a n e o u s 5 9 1 1 0 , 9 1 1 1 , 9 1 1 4 - 9 1 1 8 , 9 1 2 0 - 9 1 2 4 , 9 1 2 7 - 9 1 3 0 , 9 1 3 2 - 9 1 3 4 , 9 1 3 6 - 9 1 5 0 , 9 1 5 2 , 9 1 5 3 , 9 1 5 5 - 9 1 5 7 , 9 1 6 0 - 9 1 6 4 , 9 1 6 6 , 9 1 6 8 , 9 1 6 9 , 9 1 7 1 - 9 1 7 5 , 9 1 8 1 - 9 1 8 4 , 9 1 9 7 , 9 2 0 2 , 9 2 0 4 , 9 2 0 7 , 9 2 0 8 , 9 2 1 2 , 9 2 3 7 - 9 2 4 0 , 9 2 4 2 - 9 2 4 4 , 9 2 4 6 , 9 2 4 7 , 9 2 5 2 , 9 2 5 4 - 9 2 6 0 , 9 2 6 3 , 9265- 9 2 6 7 , 9 2 7 0 , 9 2 7 1 , 9273 - 106 - TABLE A.IX Disaggregated Export Series, 1948-1960 Code Numbers and 1948 Weights Series Weight (%) Code Number Wheat 10.12 . 430 Barley- 1.13 340 Whisky 1.13 1030 Wheat Flower 5.21 500 Oats 0.93 380 Tobacco 0.30 1500, 1530, 1510, 1540 1520, Beef 1.52 2605 Cattle, Slaughter 2.31 2045, 2050, 2055 Cattle, Dairy 0.49 2010, 2035, 2040 Milk 0.35 2715, 2720, 2725, 2730 Eggs 1.01 2820 Fish 2 1.91 . 2115-2405VFish 3 fr 4 Fish 3 - 2392, 2394, 2395 Fish 4 - 2398, 2400, 2405 Leather 3 0.32 2557 Leather 4 - 2535, 2551, 2540, 2555, 2545, 2550, 2560 Furs 0.76 2420-2470 Hides 0.35 2505 Newsprint 13.85 4830 Wood Pulp 7.50 4630, 4655, 4680, 4635, 4660, 4685, 4645, 4650, 4670-4672, 4690 Planks 6.74 4240, 4280, 4320, 4250, 4290, 4330, 4260, 4270, 4300, 4310, 4340 Pulpwood 1.58 4530, 4540, 4550, 4555 Shingles 0.80 4430 Plywood 0.43 4455, 4457 V Iron Ore 0.48 5010 Farm Machinery 4.71 5290-5470 Machinery 0.63 5580-5710 - 107 - TABLE A . I X ( C o n t i n u e d ) P i g I r o n 0 . 3 2 5055 A u t o m o b i l e s 3 . 5 1 5 7 7 0 , 5 7 8 0 , 5 8 1 0 , 5820 Copper 3 "2 .63 6 1 3 0 , 6150 Copper 4 - 6 1 6 0 , 6170 Lead 3 1 .20 6 2 2 0 , 6230 Lead 4 - 6240 A luminum 3 3 . 2 5 . 6010 A luminum 4 - 6 0 2 0 , 6025 N i c k e l 3 2 . 5 8 6 2 6 0 , 6270 N i c k e l 4 - 6280 Z i n c 3 1.44 6 3 7 0 , 6390 Z i n c 4 - 6380 S i l v e r 3 0 . 2 3 6330 S i l v e r 4 - 6340 P l a t i n u m 0 .58 6 3 1 0 , 6320 A s b e s t o s 1 .92 7 0 1 0 , 7 0 2 0 , A b r a s i v e s 0 .64 7360 C o a l 0 . 5 3 7 1 1 0 , 7120 F e r t i l i z e r s 1 .19 8 1 6 0 , 8 1 8 0 , G r o u p s A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l T e x t i l e s Wood I r o n N o n - F e r r o u s N o n - M e t a l l i c C h e m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s 3 3 . 9 9 1 .48 3 1 . 0 1 1 1 . 8 0 1 2 . 8 7 3 . 0 9 2 . 6 0 3.1'6 R e s i d u a l S e r i e s A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l 1 ,2 A g r i c u l t u r a l & A n i m a l 3 R e s i d u a l s , a g r i c u l t u r a l and a n i m a l 3 4 5 , 1 0 8 0 , 1 1 6 0 , 1 1 7 0 , 1 1 9 0 , 1 2 0 0 , 1 3 6 0 - 1 4 7 0 , C / . 1 4 6 0 ) , 1 6 0 0 , 1 6 8 0 , 1 6 9 0 , 1 7 0 0 , 2 1 0 0 , 2 1 1 0 , 2 1 1 2 , 2 4 8 5 - 2 4 9 0 , 2 5 0 0 - 2 5 2 0 C / 2 5 0 5 ) , 2 7 0 5 , 2 8 1 2 , 2 8 1 3 , 2 8 2 5 , 2835 - 108 - TABLE A . I X ( C o n t i n u e d ) A g r i c u l t u r a l and A n i m a l 4 6 1 0 , 1 1 1 0 - 1 1 4 0 , . 1 2 1 0 , 1 2 2 0 , 1 2 7 0 , 1 2 8 0 , 1 2 9 0 , 1 3 0 0 , 1 3 0 5 , 1 3 4 0 , 1 7 2 0 , 1 7 3 0 , 2 4 7 2 , A g r i c u l t u r a l and A n i m a l 5 T e x t i l e s 3 T e x t i l e s 4 T e x t i l e s 5 Wood 3 Wood 4 Wood 5 I r o n 3 I r o n 4 I r o n 5 N o n - F e r r o u s 3 2475 2768 2807 1230 1321 2577 2565 3010 3180 3015 3186 3335 3413 3042 3066 3210 3385 3420 4010 4130 4910 4140 4370 4460 4770 4850 4940 4600 4772 4960 5070 5015 5080 5150 5200 5530 5960 5230 5725 5760 5860 5910 5955 6080 6620 2 5 6 5 , 2 5 8 0 , 2 7 5 0 , 2 7 5 4 , 2 7 5 6 , 2 7 5 9 , 2 7 6 9 , 2 7 7 3 - 2 7 7 5 , 2 7 8 0 , 2 7 9 0 , 2 8 0 5 - 2830 1 2 4 0 , 1 2 6 0 , 1 3 1 1 , 1 3 1 5 , 1 3 1 7 , 1 3 1 9 , 1 3 2 5 , 1 3 3 0 , 2 4 8 0 , 2 5 7 0 , 2 5 7 4 , 2 5 7 5 , 2 5 8 5 , 2 5 9 0 , 2 5 9 3 , 2 5 5 3 , 2 5 6 1 , 2 5 6 3 , 2 5 6 6 , 2810 3 0 2 0 , 3 0 8 0 , 3 0 9 0 , 3 0 9 5 , 3 1 6 0 , 3 1 7 0 , 3 1 8 3 , 3,185, 3 1 8 7 , 3320 3 0 3 0 , 3 0 3 5 , 3 0 4 0 , 3 0 7 0 , 3 1 0 0 , 3 1 4 0 , 3 2 0 0 , 3 2 5 0 , 3 2 6 1 , 3 2 6 2 , 3 3 0 0 , 3 3 3 0 , 3 3 3 7 , 3 3 4 0 , 3 3 5 0 , 3 3 5 5 , 3 3 6 0 , 3 3 7 0 , 3 4 3 5 , 3 4 3 7 , 3 4 5 0 , 3 4 5 5 , 3460 3 0 4 4 , 3 0 4 7 , 3 0 5 0 , 3 0 6 0 , 3 0 6 2 , 3 0 6 4 , 3 0 6 8 , 3 1 3 0 , 3 1 9 0 , 3 2 0 2 , 3 2 0 5 , 3 2 0 7 , 3 2 2 5 , 3 2 3 0 , 3 2 7 0 , 3 2 8 0 , 3 2 9 0 , 3 3 8 0 , 3 3 9 0 , 3 4 0 0 , 3 4 0 5 , 3 4 0 7 , 3 4 0 9 , 3 4 1 5 , 3430 4 0 1 5 - 4 0 8 0 , 4 0 9 0 , 4 1 0 0 , 4 1 1 0 , 4 1 2 0 , 4 2 2 0 , 4 4 2 5 , 4 4 7 0 , 4 5 0 0 , 4 5 1 0 , 4 5 7 0 , 4920 4 1 5 0 , 4 1 6 0 , 4 2 0 0 , 4 2 0 5 , 4 3 5 0 , 4 3 6 0 , 4 3 8 0 , 4 4 0 0 , 4 4 1 0 , 4 4 2 0 , 4 4 4 0 , 4 4 5 0 , 446-5, 4 5 6 0 , 4 6 2 0 , 4 7 2 0 , 4 7 4 0 , 4 7 6 0 , 4 7 8 0 , 4 7 9 0 , 4 8 0 0 , 4 8 1 0 , 4 8 3 5 , 4 8 4 0 , 4 8 6 0 , 4 8 8 0 , 4 8 9 0 , 4 9 0 0 , 4 9 2 5 , 4 9 3 0 , 4951 4 6 0 5 , 4 6 1 0 , 4 7 7 5 , 4 8 6 5 , 4 9 7 0 , 4 9 8 0 , 5 0 2 0 , 5 0 3 0 , 5 0 9 0 , 5 1 0 0 , 5 1 6 0 , 5 1 6 5 , 5 2 1 0 , 5 2 2 0 , 5 5 4 0 , 5 5 4 5 , 4 7 0 5 , 4 7 1 0 , 4 7 3 0 , 4 7 5 0 , 4 8 7 0 , 4 9 4 5 , 4 9 4 7 , 4 9 5 7 , 4990 5 0 4 0 , 5 0 5 0 , 5 0 5 7 , 5 0 6 0 , 5 1 1 0 , 5 1 2 0 , 5 1 3 0 , 5140 5 1 7 0 , 5 1 8 0 , 5 1 9 0 , 5 1 9 5 , 5 2 4 0 , 5 5 1 0 , 5 5 1 5 , 5 5 2 0 , 5 5 5 0 , 5 5 7 0 , 5 9 0 5 , 5 9 2 0 , 526.0, 5 7 3 0 , 5 8 3 0 , 5 8 7 0 , 5 9 2 5 , 5 9 6 5 , 6 3 0 0 , 6630 5 2 7 0 , 5 4 9 0 , 5 7 4 0 , 5 7 4 5 , 5 8 4 0 , 5 8 5 0 , 5 8 7 5 , 5 8 7 7 , 5 9 3 0 , 5 9 3 5 , 5970 5 5 0 0 , 5 5 6 0 , 57-20, 5 7 5 0 , 5 7 5 5 , 5 7 5 7 , 5 8 5 1 , 5 8 5 5 , 5 8 5 9 , 5 8 8 0 , 5 8 9 0 , 5 9 0 0 , 3 9 4 0 , 5 9 4 5 , 5 9 5 0 , 6 5 6 0 , 6 5 7 0 , 6 5 7 3 , 6 5 7 5 , 6580 . - 109 - TABLE A . I X ( C o n t i n u e d ) N o n - F e r r o u s 4 N o n - F e r r o u s 5 N o n - M e t a l l i c 3 N o n - M e t a l l i c 4 *<fon—Ms'i =L • ! ~' c ^ N o n - M e f a l l i c 5 C h e m i c a l s 1 , 2 C h e m i c a l s 4 C h e m i c a l s 5 6027 6110 6250 6615 6670 6030 6460 6511 7220 7450 7550 7660 7035 7130 7210 7310 7430 7080 8080 8020 8130 8260 8355 8440 8473 8103 8297 6 0 4 0 , 6 0 5 0 , 6 0 9 0 , 6 0 9 5 , 6 1 0 0 , 6 1 0 5 , 6 1 7 5 , 6 1 8 0 , 6 1 9 0 , 6 2 0 0 , 6 2 1 0 , 6 2 4 5 , 6 3 5 0 , 6 4 0 0 , 6 5 9 0 , 6 6 0 0 , 6 6 0 5 , 6 6 1 0 , 6 6 4 0 , 664'2, 6 6 4 5 , 6 6 5 0 , 6 6 5 5 , 6 6 6 0 , 6680 6 4 1 0 , 6 4 2 0 , 6 4 3 1 , 6 4 3 2 , 6 4 4 0 , 6 4 5 0 , 6 4 7 0 , 6 4 7 5 , 6 4 8 0 , 6 4 8 3 , 6 4 8 5 , 6 4 9 0 , 6 5 1 2 , 6 5 1 5 , 6 5 2 0 , 6 5 2 5 , 6 5 3 0 , 6550 7 2 4 0 , 7 2 8 0 , ^ 7 3 5 0 , 7 3 7 5 , 7 4 1 0 , 7 4 2 0 , 7 5 2 0 , 7 5 3 0 , 7 5 3 5 , 7 5 4 0 , 7 5 4 5 , 7 5 4 7 , 7 5 6 0 , 7 5 7 0 , 7 5 8 0 , 7 6 2 0 , 7 6 3 0 , 7 6 4 0 , 7690 7 0 3 7 , 7 0 4 0 , 7 0 5 0 , 7 0 6 0 , 7 0 6 5 , 7 1 0 0 , 7 1 4 0 , 7 1 5 0 , 7 1 6 0 , 7 1 7 0 , 7 1 8 0 , 7 1 9 0 , 7 2 3 0 , 7 2 4 5 , 7 2 5 0 , 7 2 6 0 , 7 2 9 0 , 7 3 0 0 , 7 3 1 5 , 7 3 2 0 , 7 3 3 0 , 7 3 7 0 , 73&0, 7 3 9 0 , 7 4 8 0 , 7 4 9 0 , 7 5 0 0 , 7 5 1 0 , 7 6 1 0 , 7615 7 1 8 3 , 7 1 8 5 , 7187 8380 8 0 3 0 , 8 0 5 0 , 3 8 0 6 0 , 8 8 0 9 0 , 8 1 0 0 , 8 1 2 0 , 8 1 4 0 , ,8220, 8 2 2 5 , 8 2 3 0 , 8 2 4 0 , 8 2 5 0 , 8 2 7 0 , 8 2 8 0 , 8 3 2 0 , 8 3 3 0 , 8 3 4 0 , 8 3 5 0 , 8 3 6 0 , 8 3 8 5 , 8 3 8 7 , 8 3 9 0 , 8 4 0 0 , 8 4 1 0 , 8 4 4 4 , 8 4 5 5 , 8 4 5 7 , 8 4 6 5 , 8 4 7 0 , 8 4 7 1 - 8 4 7 5 , 8 4 8 1 , 8490 8 1 0 5 , 8 1 0 8 , 8 1 1 0 , 8 2 8 5 , 8 2 9 0 , 8 2 9 5 , 8 3 0 0 , 8 3 0 5 , 8 3 1 0 , 8 4 4 5 , 8460 M i s c e l l a n e o u s 1,2 9260 M i s c e l l a n e o u s 3 9 5 1 0 , 9520 M i s c e l l a n e o u s 4 \ 9500 ~ s M i s c e l l a n e o u s .5 9 0 2 0 , 9 0 3 0 , 9 0 3 5 , 9 0 4 0 , 9 0 5 0 , 9 0 5 5 , 9 0 6 0 , 9 1 0 0 , 9 1 1 0 , 9 1 2 0 , 9 1 3 0 , 9 1 4 0 , 9 1 5 0 , 9 1 6 0 , 9 1 7 0 , 9 1 7 5 , 9 1 7 7 , 9 1 8 0 , 9 1 9 0 , 9 2 0 0 , 9 2 1 0 , 9 2 2 0 , 9 2 3 0 , 9 2 3 5 , 9 2 4 0 , 9 2 5 0 , 9 2 8 0 , 9 2 9 0 , 9 3 0 0 , 9 3 1 0 , 9 3 2 0 , 9 3 3 0 , 9 3 3 5 , 9 3 4 1 , 9 3 4 2 , 9 3 4 5 , 9 3 5 0 , 9 3 5 5 , 9 3 6 0 , 9 3 8 0 , 9 3 9 0 , 9 4 0 0 , 9 4 1 0 , 9 4 1 5 , 9 4 1 7 , 9 4 2 5 , 9 4 3 0 , 9 4 4 0 , 9 4 6 0 , 9 4 8 0 , 9 5 3 5 , 9 5 5 5 , 9 5 4 0 , 9557 - n o - TABLE A . X D i s a g g r e g a t e d Impor t S e r i e s , 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 2 . Code Numbers , 1948 and 1968 W e i g h t s S e r i e s W e i g h t s (%)• I 1948 1968 Code Numbers V e g e t a b l e s 0 . 3 2 8 . 9 6 9103 -9199 Sugar 2 . 7 8 8 .37 1 0 1 1 5 , 10119 Cocoa 0 . 8 0 2 . 1 9 11110 C o f f e e 1 .25 1 2 . 9 9 11210 Tea 0 . 8 6 4 . 1 7 11310 F r e s h F r u i t s 1 .84 1 8 . 7 2 7103 -7189 I n d i a n C o r n 0 . 8 5 7 . 2 2 6129 Mea t - 7 .07 1 1 0 4 - 1 3 9 9 L i v e A n i m a l s 0 .07 1 0 0 . 0 0 1 1 0 - 9 9 9 Soyabeans 0 . 5 0 3 .27 21260 F u r s £. 1 .18 - 20220 -20289 C o t t o n , Raw 3 . 3 9 5 . 2 5 24410 W o o l , Raw 1 .35 0 .81 2 4 2 0 9 , 24219 W o o l , Tops 1 .43 1 .75 2 4 2 5 9 , 24268 S y n t h e t i c s 3 0 .74 - 24617-24699 I r o n Ore 0 . 5 9 5 . 1 1 . 25120=25199 C o a l A n t h r . 2 . 6 5 - 26105 -26115 C o a l B i t u m . 6 . 0 0 16*23- ' ' - 26149 P e t r o l e u m 9 . 0 3 3 9 . 1 6 26410 Rubber 3 1.44 1 .72 21610 -21649 H i d e s 0 .17 0 . 9 0 20110 B a u x i t e 0 .64 8 . 6 1 25210-25299 Coppe r O r e s - 5 . 0 2 2 5 3 3 9 , 25399 V e g e t a b l e O i l s 0 . 8 1 - 3 9 3 0 8 - 3 9 3 9 9 C o t t o n , F a b r i c s 1 .27 4 . 9 7 37302 -37398 J u t e 1.04 1.07 37404 -37449 W o r s t e d s 1 .91 1 .30 37203 -37259 P a p e r b o a r d 4 1 .20 - 35181 -35999 R o l l i n g M i l l 1 .41 7 .01 4 4 4 0 3 - 4 4 6 9 0 , 44739-=44799 T i n , B l o c k s 0 . 5 1 1 .31 45608 - I l l - TABLE A . X ' ( C o n t i n u e d ) G l a s s 0 .53 . - 47303 -47318 G a s o l i n e 1 .91 1 .39 4 3 1 0 9 - 4 3 1 4 9 F e r t i l i z e r s 0 .36 - 41623 -41699 I n d . C h e m i c a l s 4 0 . 9 2 1 8 . 0 8 4 2 9 0 7 - 4 2 9 9 9 C o a t e d , F a b r i c s - 1 .23 38702 -38795 V e n e e r s 1 .48 3 3 5 0 7 - 3 3 5 9 9 / 3 3 7 0 7 - 3 3 8 9 9 Heavy F u e l s - 4 . 7 8 43259 I n o r g . C h e m i c a l s 0 . 8 6 40000 -40599 O r g . C h e m i c a l s - 1.29 4 0 6 0 0 - 4 1 3 9 9 F a r m M a c h i n e r y 5 . 3 3 0 .84 54000 -55199 M a c h i n e r y 8 . 2 6 - 50000 -52999 A u t o m o b i l e s 5 . 8 0 5 0 . 2 1 58000 -58999 E l e c t r i c 3 . 1 8 6 . 4 5 6 3 4 1 9 - 6 3 9 9 9 , 6 5 5 0 6 - 6 5 5 9 9 , 68000 -68995 D r i l l i n g M a c h i n e r y - 3 . 9 1 52101 -52199 S e c t i o n 2 1 0 . 7 8 1 0 0 . 0 0 1104 -18399 S e c t i o n 3 3 2 . 8 2 1 0 0 . 0 0 20110-29199 S e c t i o n 4 2 6 . 7 9 1 0 0 . 0 0 30110 -49704 S e c t i o n 5 2 9 . 5 4 1 0 0 . 0 0 50119 -96199 - 112 - TABLE A . X I D i s a g g r e g a t e d E x p o r t S e r i e s , 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 2 . Code Numbers , 1948 and 1968 W e i g h t s S e r i e s W e i g h t s (%) Code Numbers 1948 1968 Wheat 1 0 . 1 2 5 1 . 7 2 616146169 B a r l e y 1 .13 3 . 2 6 6119 W h i s k y 1 .13 1 2 . 8 7 17340 Wheat F l o w e r 5 ;21 4 . 5 5 6 2 6 7 , 6269 Oa ts 0 . 9 3 - 6 1 3 1 , 6 1 3 3 , 6139 T o b a c c o 0 . 3 0 4 . 3 6 18005 -18399 B e e f 1 .52 1 .25 1 1 0 9 / 1 1 0 4 , 1 1 0 5 , 1 1 0 7 , 1108 M i l k 0 . 3 5 - 5150 -5199 Eggs 1 .01 - .5319/5935 C h e e s e 0 . 5 0 1.27 5 1 3 0 , 5 1 3 9 / 5 1 1 4 , 5149 F i s h 1 .91 1 1 . 7 9 3 1 0 6 - 4 9 9 9 L i v e A n i m a l s 2 . 8 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 1 1 0 - 9 9 9 F u r s t ; 0 .76 1 .16 20203-20289 H i d e s 0 . 3 5 0 .76 20110 Pu lpwood 1 .58 0 . 9 6 23624-23699 I r o n O r e s 0 . 4 8 2 0 . 3 5 25104 -25119 N i c k e l 3 - 1 1 . 8 8 2 5 5 2 0 , 2 5 5 3 0 , 25540 P l a t i n u m 0 . 5 8 1.74 2 5 6 2 9 , 25639 A s b e s t o s 1 .20 5 . 9 9 27110 -27140 P e t r o l e u m - 2 0 . 9 0 26410 N a t u r a l Gas T 7 . 2 0 26431 C o a l 0 . 53 - 2 6 1 6 9 , 26189 L e a t h e r 0 . 2 6 - 3 0 0 1 2 - 3 0 0 9 9 N e w s p r i n t 1 3 . 8 5 2 5 . 9 1 35109 Woodpu lp 7 . 5 0 1 5 . 7 2 3 4 0 1 9 - 3 4 0 9 9 P l a n k s 6.7.4 1 4 . 6 6 33106^33195 S h i n g l e s 0 . 8 0 - 33403 -33405 P l y w o o d 0 . 4 3 - 33544 -33579 - 113 - P i g I r o n Coppe r A luminum N i c k e l Z i n c ' A b r a s i v e s F e r t i l i z e r s R o l l i n g M i l l E l e c t r i c i t i y C h e m i c a l s F a r m M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e r y A u t o m o b i l e s C o n s . Goods Rubber S e c t i o n 2 S e c t i o n 3 S e c t i o n 4 S e c t i o n 5 TABLE A . X I ( C o n t i n u e d ) 0 . 3 2 0 . 7 1 1 .85 7 . 5 6 3 . 0 8 1 0 . 8 7 1 . 5 6 ' 6 . 1 5 1 .28 1.97 0 .64 0 . 8 9 1 .19 0 . 5 8 2 . 2 9 0115 0 .37 5 . 1 3 4 . 7 1 4 . 0 7 0 . 6 3 1 0 . 2 8 3 . 5 1 7 6 . 3 4 2 . 3 6 1 .50 0 . 6 5 0 .33 28 .97 1 0 0 . 0 0 8 .55 1 0 0 . 0 0 4 5 . 4 3 1 0 0 . 0 0 1 4 . 2 5 1 0 0 . 0 0 44219 45204-45214 45109 -45149 4 5 4 1 5 - 4 5 4 9 9 45708 4 7 6 1 9 - 4 7 6 9 9 4 1 6 4 4 - 4 1 6 9 9 44430 -44599 4 9 0 7 5 / 4 9 6 9 7 / 4 9 7 0 4 4 0 0 0 3 - 4 1 4 9 9 5 4 1 0 9 - 5 5 1 9 9 5 0 0 1 9 - 5 3 0 1 0 5 8 0 1 9 - 5 8 0 9 9 / 5 8 1 1 0 - 5 8 9 9 9 78009 -78099 /78149 ' -78999 and 6 3 0 3 5 - 6 3 0 6 0 / 6 3 0 7 0 - 6 3 0 7 9 / 6 3 7 2 0 - 6 3 7 9 9 6 2 0 0 5 - 6 2 0 3 9 / 6 2 1 0 5 - 6 2 5 4 9 1104 -18399 20110 -29199 30010 -49704 50239 -96099 - 114 - TABLE A.XII DISAGGREGATED VALUE AND PRICE SERIES, IMPOSTS 1948-1972 1. SUBPERIOD 1948-1960 YEAR PRICE QUANTITY PRICE QUANTITY BANANAS CITRUS FRUITS 1948 1.000 17199.000 1.000 18837.000 1949 1. 189 14326.325 1.430 15571.329 1950 1.280 15189.062 1.613 15208.927 1951 1.246 15728.732 1.475 18101.017 1952 1.,189 17610.597 1.315 20313.308 1953 1.J218 18752.053 1.234 21479.741 1954 1J246 18470.305 1.473 21230.143 1955 1.*250 18447.200 1.434 20852.859 1956 1.'219 19214.110 1.601 20359.775 1957 1.227 19880.196 1.607 20450.529 1958 1./171 20215.201 2.125 16968.471 1959 1. 152 21167.535 1.679 21033.949 1960 1.\034 2364 3.133 1.841 19841.391 jFRUITS , DRIED NUTS 1948 1.000 10373.000 1.000 31027.000 1949 1.J051 9172.217 1.056 21957.386 1950 1.;151 10319.722 .784 28536.990 1951 1.302 9794.931 .838 27183.771 1952 1.155 11213.853 .826 25518.160 1953 1.206 10436.982 .815 24600.000 1954 1.247 10469.928 . 833 27132.053 1955 1.26 3 11154.394 .768 24410.156 1956 1.265 9773.913 .767 27288.136 1957 1.324 10032.477 .738 29323.848 1958 1.559 10688.262 .750 25757.333 1959 1.569 10982.154 .664 30509.036 1960 1.567 10341.417 .763 28714.286 VEGETABLES SUGAR 1948 1.000 6845.000 1.000 63061.000 1949 .941 19617.428 1.049 63037.178 1950 .772 30128.238 1. 194 64663.317 1951 1.066 24666.979 1.397 55189.692 1952 1. 175 32314.043 .990 60147.475 1953 .769 38036.411 .822 57774.939 1954 .772 45090.674 .777 66305.019 1955 .903 45545.958 .765 68381.699 1956 .900 53142.222 .769 72598.179 1957 .934 47297.645 1.105 68445.249 1958 1.006 46392.644 .792 73962.121 1959 .925 50449.730 .737 77082.768 1960 .947 55192.186 .737 68761.194 - 115 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) COCOA COFFEE 1948 1.000 14790.000 1.000 23426.000 1949 .660 15421.212 1.074 26614.525 1950 .714 15009.804 1.884 22114.650 1951 .963 9867.082 2.052 23605.263 1952 .886 10787.810 1.948 26065.195 1953 .797 12328.733 2.007 28697.060 1954 1.379 11323.423 2.521 25471.638 1955 1. 106 10473.779 2.056 27728.599 1956 .708 10566.384 2. 142 29251.634 1957 .617 11306.321 2.004 29500.998 1958 1.121 9161.463 1.749 31590.623 1959 .919 10515.778 1.404 35844.729 1960 .713 12767.181 1.345 35177.695 TEA WHISKY 1948 1.000 17520.000 1.000 8093.000 1949 1.014 20835.306 1.004 10750.996 1950 1.056 26802.083 .995 9240.201 1951 1.003 20783.649 .964 10220.954 1952 .829 22541.616 .941 11965.994 1953 .866 22789.838 .951 10597.266 1954 1.041 22652.257 .968 9252.066 1955 1. 184 21607.264 .962 9402.287 1956 1.085 22727.189 .984 9148.374 1957 1.042 23214.012 .942 10063.694 1958 1.023 22307.918 .928 9952.586 1959 1.009 22789.891 .907 8745.314 1960 1.072 21903.918 .905 8459.669 IND. CHEMICALS 12 AGR.+ANIM. 12 1948 1.000 2.000 1.000 93003.000 1949 .971 8.239 .948 102533.755 1950 1. 146 41.885 1.006 124746.521 1951 1.218 25.452 1. 188 137117.003 1952 1. 103 14.506 .979 151273.749 1953 1.109 15.329 .940 170206.383 1954 1.109 19.838 .961 186418.314 1955 1.124 4.448 .922 208823.210 1956 1.150 7.826 . 937 254394.877 1957 1. 143 4.374 .954 267832.285 1958 1. 160 12.931 .924 297311.688 1959 1. 148 11.324 . 860 337416.279 1960 1. 165 6.009 .852 349253.521 - 116 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) NON-METALLIC 12 CHEMICALS 12 1948 1.000 +0.0 1.000 1344.000 1949 1.009 + 0.0 1.005 1574.129 1950 1.034 +0.0 1.019 774.289 1951 1.084 .923 1.195 573.222 1952 1.011 2.967 1.108 514.440 1953 1.050 1.905 1.113 486.972 1954 1.038 7.707 1.092 617.216 1955 1.016 19.685 1.109 527.502 1956 1.014 27.613 1.120 4 83.0 36 1957 1.073 33.551 1. 106 510.850 1958 1.060 32.075 1.125 480.000 1959 1.027 61.344 1. 104 563.406 1960 .986 56.795 1.112 612.410 MISCELLANEOUS 12 SOYABEANS 1948 1.000 57.000 1.000 4937.000 1949 .994 62.374 .747 7314.592 1950 1. 196 72.742 . 888 13670.045 1951 1.577 65.314 1.033 15912.875 1952 1.214 114.498 .877 15997.719 1953 1.117 152. 193 .828 15646.135 1954 1.062 207.156 .895 23461.453 1955 1.158 215.889 .716 27178.771 1956 1. 153 262.793 .727 33530.949 1957 1.111 284.428 .669 35466.368 1958 1.063 383.819 .633 37033.175 1959 1. 135 444.053 .625 44892.800 1960 1.219 508.614 .622 51774.920 FURS COTTON, HAW 1948 1.000 21980.000 1.000 55546.000 1949 .746 21841.823 .970 67707.216 1950 .753 24916.335 1.176 75221.939 1951 .868 20141.705 1.395 67609.319 1952 .669 29563.528 1.207 54644.573 1953 .674 24489.614 1.052 52750.951 1954 .610 24516.393 1.046 50134.799 1955 .808 24882.426 1.052 58014.259 1956 .781 24623.560 .927 63374.326 1957 .750 27910.667 .869 56947.066 1958 .692 29815.029 .885 51317.514 1959 .680 30702.941 .830 51902.410 1960 .714 26701.681 .770 56320.779 - 117 - TABLE A..XII (CONTINUED) WOOL, HAW BOOL, TOPS 1948 1.000 23636.000 1. 000 23471. 000 1949 1.044 18054.598 1. 082 16421. 442 1950 1.366 19623.719 1. 284 21474. 299 1951 3.237 16793.636 2. 149 180 22. 336 1952 1.302 13864.823 1. 037 9954. 677 1953 1.476 15128.726 1. 149 17158. 399 1954 1.536 9582.682 1. 1 19 11800. 715 1955 1.427 12880.168 * 978 14520. 450 1956 1.379 14828.861 • 948 14343. 882 1957 1.465 10935.836 1. 104 13884. 964 1958 1. 188 8773.569 • 873 13209. 622 1959 .967 12064.116 • 843 15664. 294 1960 1. 133 11172.992 873 15150. 057 SISAL SYNTHETICS 3 1948 1.000 11043.000 1.000 3414.000 1949 1.095 5779.909 .994 3722.334 1950 .957 8606.061 1.011 2722.057 1951 1.493 12393.168 1.264 8077.532 1952 1.403 12132.573 1.117 3773.500 1953 . 763 6904.325 .999 4059.059 1954 .642 8646.417 1.000 3553.000 1955 .587 9921.635 .987 6915.907 1956 .606 10028.053 . 967 7504.654 1957 .519 11423.892 .961 9952.133 1958 .498 9397.590 1.001 4427.572 1959 .544 11454.044 1.004 5826.693 1960 .683 8929.722 1.032 5354.651 PAPERBOARD 3 IRON ORE 1948 1.000 1189.000 1.000 15507.000 1949 1.043 513.902 1.327 9085.908 1950 1.120 1387.500 1.498 11215.621 1951 1.142 2904.553 1.640 138 23.780 1952 1.042 826.296 1.670 15879.641 1953 1.034 933.269 1.898 14854.584 1954 1.031 1081.474 1.885 10830.769 1955 1.053 1697.056 1.926 16387.850 1956 1.127 1908.607 2.036 19018.664 1957 1.132 1132.509 2.087 174 35.074 1958 1.158 1447.323 2. 136 13544.944 1959 1. 147 1401.046 2.069 13112.131 1960 1.177 1027.188 2. 062 23457.808 - 118 - TftBLE A.XII (CONTINUED) COAL, A NTH. COAL, BITUM. 1948 1.000 56292.000 1.000 127673.000 1949 1.072 42535.448 1.032 90557.171 1950 1. 169 46420.017 1.047 113455.587 1951 1. 237 41421.180 1.004 114815.737 1952 1. 185 41713.080 .949 104922.023 1953 1.260 31808.730 .939 100830.671 1954 1. 124 29487.544 .893 78885.778 1955 1.076 27996.283 .880 84605.682 1956 1.114 26836.625 .968 99706.612 1957 1.214 20234.761 1.045 86786.603 1958 1. 155 16527.273 1.051 63812.559 1959 1.084 16122.694 1.039 62670.837 1960 1.029 12833.819 1.020 60608.824 PETROLEUM RUBBER 3 1948 1.000 191980.000 1.000 18404.000 1949 1.006 188234.592 .858 17427.739 1950 1.002 200105.788 1.585 19591.167 1951 1.090 211959.633 2.973 20448.369 1952 1.002 206425.150 1.661 15402.769 1953 1.030 201928.155 1.208 18408.940 1954 1.061 200278.982 1.085 18543.779 1955 1.042 220230.326 1.710 21250.292 1956 1.001 270611.389 1.632 19742.647 1957 1.074 284503.724 1.472 18295.516 1958 1.036 264428.571 1.220 16136.885 1959 .949 292407.798 1.595 19361.129 1960 .878 318987.472 1. 849 15027.582 AGF.+ANIH. 3 TEXTILES 3 1948 1.000 22130.000 1.000 11664.000 1949 .948 31814.346 1.007 12873.883 1950 1.006 34584.493 1.091 15582.035 1951 1. 188 33440.236 1.558 16297.176 1952 .979 23707.865 1.070 14140.187 1953 .940 24806.383 1.001 13577.423 1954 .961 21891.779 .998 12113.226 1955 .922 28866.594 .953 14444.911 1956 .937 36758.805 .893 15631.579 1957 .954 33068.134 .908 14386.564 1958 .924 33134.199 .869 12948.216 1959 .860 41298.837 .831 13575.211 1960 .852 39334.507 .856 12674.065 - 119 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) WOOD 3 IRON 3 1948 1.000 3742-000 1.000 10454.000 1949 1.059 3093.484 1.065 7433.803 1950 1.118 3311.270 1.168 4621.575 1951 1. 199 5522.102 1.234 3123.987 1952 1. 139 4303.775 1.179 5801.527 1953 1. 161 5422.911 1.225 2839.184 1954 1.160 5739.655 1.236 1656.958 1955 1.178 8182.513 1.298 11060.092 1956 1.225 12091.429 1.403 25872.416 1957 1.242 9869.565 1.477 13133.378 1958 1.353 7493.718 1.513 5782.551 1959 1.361 8671.565 1.519 15670.178 1960 1.383 10930.586 1.532 12139.687 NON-FERROUS ; 3 NON -METALLIC 3 1948 1.000 21792.000 1.000 25733.000 1949 1.064 21482.143 1.009 24071.358 1950 1.088 25306.985 1.034 26361.702 1951 1.223 33863.451 1.084 28100.554 1952 1.200 3 8929.167 1.011 334 35.213 1953 1. 190 24780.672 1. 050 33743.810 1954 1.202 22062.396 1.038 27245.665 1955 1.256 28893.312 1.016 32830.709 1956 1.345 35953.160 1.014 38964.497 1957 1.289 52195.500 1.073 40757.689 1958 1.289 30908.456 1.060 40574.528 1959 1.321 35728.236 1.027 34376.826 1960 1.363 4 0862.069 .986 34421.907 CHEHICALS 3 MISCELLANEOUS 3 194 8 1.000 33.000 1.000 270.000 1949 1.005 41.791 .994 189.135 1950 1.019 27.478 1.196 229.9 33 1951 . 1.195 41.841 1.577 196.576 1952 1. 108 41.516 1.214 119.440 1953 1.113 23.360 1.117 68.935 1954 1. 092 71.429 1.062 62.147 1955 1. 109 10.821 1.158 72.539 1956 1. 120 9.821 1.153 95.403 1957 1.106 16.275 1. 111 169.217 1958 1.125 7. 111 1.063 114.770 1959 1. 104 19.928 1.135 144.493 1960 1. 112 6.295 1.219 175.554 - 120 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) VEGET. OILS COTTON, FABEICS 1948 1.000 20912.000 1.000 52819.000 1949 .951 25037.855 .818 6 4383.863 1950 .865 39593.064 .872 52638.761 1951 1. 126 34591.474 .964 57037.344 1952 .736 30539.402 .810 65738.272 1953 .714 36504.202 .726 77005.510 1954 .670 39501.493 .661 69609.682 1955 .631 40405.705 .711 75105.485 1956 .722 36663.435 .709 87630.465 1957 .679 3 8329.897 .690 94273.913 1958 .601 50497.504 .639 103549.296 1959 .574 50770.035 .645 108617.054 1960 .605 44968.595 .675 111333.333 JUTE HOESTEDS 1948 1.000 17203.000 1.000 31239.000 1949 .933 12056.806 1.094 30968.007 1950 .940 15606.383 .949 26080.084 1951 1.411 12749.823 1.217 25690.222 1952 .848 17627.358 1.014 24092.702 1953 .609 18522.167 .989 31772.497 1954 .596 16719.799 1.023 22471.163 1955 .563 20174.067 .940 22 227.660 1956 .523 21007.648 .826 31474.576 1957 .550 19543w636 .826 30104.116 1958 .543 20373.849 .972 22985.597 1959 .563 21488.455 .917 23654.308 1960 .6 23 18727.127 .949 22782.929 SYNTHETICS 4 PAPERBOARD 4 1948 1.000 13870.000 1.000 12443.000 1949 .994 14197.183 1.043 14934.803 1950 1.011 7391.691 1. 120 15316.071 1951 1.264 8348.101 1. 142 21556.042 1952 1. 117 16005.372 1.04 2 20993.282 1953 .999 19906.907 1.034 28067.698 1954 1.000 19237.000 1.031 31002.910 1955 .987 22710.233 1.053 36479.582 1956 .967 24374.354 1. 127 39951.198 1957 .961 26365.245 1.132 40763.251 1958 1.001 26868.132 1.158 42133.851 1959 1.004 27815.737 1. 147 44163.034 1960 1.032 26603.682 1. 177 43022.090 - 121 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) SOLLIHG MILL i 1948 LOOO 83929.000 1949 1.077 91079.851 1950 1.198 78162.771 1951 1.393 124283.561 1952 1.254 114141.148 1953 1.274 97969.388 1954 1.274 76580.063 1955 1.383 93766.450 1956 1.488 157734.543 1957 1.581 138575.585 1958 1.603 92009.357 1959 1.567 87639.438 1960 1.641 82119.439 BRICKS 1948 1.000 9660.000 1949 1.045 9822.967 1950 1. 151 9868.810 1951 1.214 13817.957 1952 1.126 13983.126 1953 1. 179 13910.941 1954 1.221 10389.844 1955 1.293 13293.117 1956 1.369 15915.997 1957 1.390 13900.719 1958 1.432 11097.067 1959 1.451 13128.877 1960 1.483 12720.162 GAS 1948 1.000 87562.000 1949 .933 71176.849 1950 1.043 83490.892 1951 1.048 89193.702 1952 .985 108986.802 1953 1.056 109932.765 1954 .880 121817.045 1955 .888 129427.928 1956 .914 130574.398 1957 .943 122452.810 1958 .909 105936.194 1959 .875 126202.286 1960 .986 85733.266 TIN, BLOCKS 1 .000 7898.000 .967 8130.300 .970 10656.701 1 .44 3 13566.875 1 .222 8670.213 1 .017 8125.860 . 884 8418.552 .930 9477.419 .988 8293.522 .936 9122.863 .929 7599.569 1 .000 9182.000 .998 8274.549 GLASS 1 .000 11232.000 1 .051 9717.412 1 .202 9411.814 1 .376 9183.140 1 .282 7522.621 1 .343 11008.191 1 .390 8802.878 1 .434 12675.732 1 .496 14470.588 1 .492 11489.276 1 .509 13356.528 1 .487 17406.859 1 .480 13700.000 FERTILIZERS 1 .000 6298.000 1 .024 7585.937 1 .081 8133.210 1 .053 9719.848 1 .053 9938.272 1 .076 11142.193 1 ,098 10837.887 1 .126 11274.423 1 .171 11321.947 1 .186 11489.882 1 .155 11233.766 1 .153 11102.342 1 .166 12199.828 - 122 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) PAINT 4 IND. CHEMICALS 4 1948 1.000 14051.000 1.000 23827.000 1949 .982 13900.204 .971 23884.655 1950 .953 18824.764 1. 146 25612.565 1951 1.057 19459.792 1.218 29010.673 1952 .989 17001.011 1.103 29399.819 1953 .978 21069.530 1.109 35436.429 1954 .983 19805.697 1. 109 37963.931 1955 1.005 22547.264 1.124 43121.886 1956 1.039 23889.317 1. 150 44049.565 1957 1.058 21158.790 1. 143 32757.655 1958 1.098 18704.007 1. 160 27989.655 1959 1.080 20859.259 1. 148 29154.181 1960 1.097 18797.630 1.165 29449.785 RUBBER 4 AGR.+ANIM. 4 1948 1.000 10246.000 1.000 24004.000 1949 .858 13335.664 .948 18159.283 1950 1.585 9151.420 1.006 22842.942 1951 2.973 5936.091 1.188 23112.795 1952 1-661 9532.210 .979 19241.062 1953 1.208 14784.768 .940 23331.915 1954 1.085 15573.272 .961 21496.358 1955 1.710 14356.140 .922 27415.401 1956 1.632 16825.368 .937 26728.922 1957 1.472 20098.505 .954 27538.784 1958 1.220 23028.689 .924 29097.403 1959 1.595 24914.107 .860 33505.814 1960 1.84 9 18315.306 .852 32393.192 TEXTILES 4 WOOD 4 194 8 1.000 67269.000 1. 000 19791.000 1949 1.007 57757.696 1. 059 22871.577 1950 1.091 54120.073 1. 118 24833.631 1951 1.558 48387.035 1. 199 33018.349 1952 1.070 60871.028 1. 139 33820.896 1953 1.001 77464.535 1. 161 34878.553 1954 .998 66599.198 1. 160 35464.655 1955 .953 81901.364 1. 178 44487.267 1956 .893 98410.974 1. 225 52604.898 1957 .908 94438.326 1. 242 45900.161 1958 .869 97729.574 1. 353 44327.421 1959 .831 112341.757 1. 361 59924.320 1960 .856 110825.935 1. 383 48015.184 - 123 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) IEON 4 1948 1.000 64775.000 1949 1.065 73819.718 1950 1. 168 69580.479 1951 1.234 99597.245 1952 1.179 116492.791 J 1953 1.225 106245.714 • \s ') 1954 1.236 104155.340 1955 1.298 102442.219 1956 1.403 163323.592 *' 1957 1.477 170681.110 J.' 1958 1.513 120940.516 1959 1.519 105578.012 1960 1.532 96535.901 NON-METALLIC 4 1948 1 .000 69640. 000 1949 1 .009 67250. 743 1950 1 .034 70115. 087 1951 1 .084 92074. 723 1952 1 .011 89537. 09 2 1953 1 .050 94071. 429 1954 1 .038 85733. 141 1955 1 .016 106023. 622 1956 1 .014 121274. 162 1957 1 .073 110723. 206 1958 1 .060 95317. 925 1959 1 .027 104535. 540 1960 .986 110324. 544 MISCELLANEOUS 4 1948 1. 000 2901.000 1949 * 994 4127.767 1950 1. 196 3239.967 1951 1. 577 3168.675 1952 1. 214 3952.224 1953 1. 117 5259.624 1954 1. 062 5249.529 1955 1. 158 4942.142 1956 1. 153 5895.056 1957 1. 111 7085.509 1958 1w 063 6442.145 1959 1. 135 7206.167 1960 1. 219 5724.364 NON -FERROUS 4 1 .000 42226. 000 1 .064 43482. 143 1 .088 55088. 235 1 .223 57501. 226 1 .200 56699. 167 1 .190 714 30. 252 1 .202 62091. 514 1 .256 67915. 605 1.345 96031. 970 1 .289 86730. 023 1 .289 76568. 658 1 .321 72695.685 1 .363 72460.015 CHEMICALS 4 1 .000 59471. 000 1 .005 68970. 149 1 .019 82476. 938 1 .195 86010. 879 1 .108 93059.567 1 .113 107230. 009 1 .092 104014. 652 1 .109 126864.743 1 .120 141807. 143 1 .106 158327. 306 1 .125 155394. 667 1 .104 183290. 761 1 .112 192208.633 NEWSPAPERS 1 .000 16413. 000 1 .068 17013.109 1 .107 19131. 888 1 .192 22832. 215 1 .305 23471. 264 1 .342 26964. 978 1 .365 26980. 220 1 .384 26899. 566 1 .389 26596. 112 1 .441 27623. 178 1 .714 23025. 671 1 .750 23749. 714 1 .779 23223. 721 - 124 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) PAPERBOARD 5 1948 1 .000 3580.000 1949 1 .043 3791.946 1950 1 ,120 4219.643 1951 1 .142 6039.405 1952 1 .042 6895.393 1953 1 .034 8917.795 1954 1 .031 10163.919 1955 1 .053 11861.349 1956 1 .127 1334 6.051 1957 1 .132 13094.523 1958 1 .158 13184.801 1959 1 .147 13959.024 1960 1 .177 14497.026 MACHINERY 1948 1 .000 217090.000 1949 1 .057 204650.899 1950 1 .136 199162.852 1951 1 .208 272136.589 1952 1 . 144 315532.343 1953 1 .166 344644.940 1954 1 . 183 321402.367 1955 1 .230 362500.000 1956 1 .317 477236.902 1957 1 .368 461695.175 1958 1 .418 375822.285 1959 1 .428 409828.431 1960 1 .465 395761.775 ELECTRIC 1948 1 .000 62127.000 1949 1 .047 66668.577 1950 1 .046 78933.078 1951 1 .153 104163.920 1952 1 .213 115059.357 1953 1 .239 160028.249 1954 1 .259 164844.321 1955 1 .283 176706.937 1956 1 .349 190727.947 1957 1 .421 175459.536 1958 1 .471 16 32 30.455 1959 1 .468 183516.349 1960 1 .484 175520.889 FARM MACHINERY 1.000 139992.000 1.080 164084. 259 1,166 138629. 503 1. 231 158474. 411 1. 166 169181. 818 1.178 177540. 747 1. 168 122571. 918 1. 183 150673. 711 1.224 189663.399 1-245 1624 33.735 1.315 150792. 395 1,346 203433. 135 1.383 165335. 503 AUTOMOBILES 1.000 151318. 000 1.059 177588. 291 1. 138 242960. 457 1.148 267135. 017 1.142 257826. 620 1.149 315170. 583 1. 134 256967. 372 1. 180 348041. 525 1.240 417063. 710 1.266 354827. 804 1.324 341771. 903 1.345 426736. 059 1.340 446061. 940 CHINA 1.000 12489. 000 1.092 12242. 674 .990 12800. 000 1.086 13979. 742 1.052 11827. 947 1. 059 12147. 309 1.076 11948. 885 1.130 11774.336 1.181 11756. 986 1.150 11220. 000 1.204 11776. 578 1.228 11299. 674 1.269 10479. 905 - 125 - TABLE A.XII (COHTINDED) PAINT 5 IND. CHEMICALS 5 1948 1.000 226.000 1.000 72.000 1949 .982 220.978 .971 71.061 1950 .953 284.365 1. 146 114.311 1951 1.057 276.254 1.218 160.099 1952 .989 404.449 1. 103 274.705 1953 .978 606.339 1.109 542.831 1954 .983 661.241 1.109 445.446 1955 1.005 572.139 1. 124 645.018 1956 1.039 650.626 1. 150 401.739 1957 1.058 675.803 1.143 326.334 1958 1.098 720.401 1.160 379.310 1959 1.080 977.778 1.148 438.153 i960 1.097 992.707 1. 165 536.481 CONS. GOODS ROBBER 5 1948 1.000 24693.000 i.ooo 2956.000 194 9 .986 31573.022 .858 3059.441 1950 1.033 42444.337 1.585 1969.716 1951 1. 103 61165.005 2.973 2047.763 1952 1.020 82076.471 1.661 6452.739 1953 1.013 104630.800 1,208 8668.046 1954 .995 92129.648 1.085 8038.710 1955 .993 103124.874 1.710 8244.444 1956 .988 113500.000 1.632 10650.735 1957 . .976 108473.361 1.472 10118.886 1958 .986 112784.990 1.220 14363.934 1959 .971 121338.826 1.595 14121.630 1960 .992 108308.468 1.849 12473.229 AGE.tANIM. 5 TEXTILES 5 194 8 1.000 4878.000 1.000 39445.000 1949 .948 5196.203 1.007 37416.087 1950 1.006 5743.539 1.091 38350.137 1951 1. 188 5773.569 1.558 33268.293 1952 .979 6835.546 1.070 49631.776 1953 .940 9892.553 1.001 70553.447 1954 .961 8388.137 .998 67232.465 1955 .922 9050.976 .953 79187.828 1956 .937 9784.418 .893 96008.959 1957 .954 10125.786 . 908 96373.348 1958 .924 12049.784 .869 101527.043 1959 .860 15519.767 .831 124801.444 1960 .852 15852.113 .856 122080.607 - 126 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) HOOD 5 1948 1.000 16572.000 1949 1.059 19444.759 1950 1.118 21723.614 1951 1.199 24011.676 1952 1.139 26847.234 1953 1.161 33390.181 1954 1.160 32601.724 1955 1. 178 37347.199 1956 1,225 40649.796 1957 1.242 43935.588 1958 1.353 44562.454 1959 1.361 50756.796 1960 1.383 53779.465 NON-FEBBOUS 5 1948 1.000 21757.000 1949 1.064 26210.526 1950 1.088 32286.765 1951 1.223 32228.945 1952 1.200 26620.833 1953 1. 190 36546.218 1954 1.202 34094.842 1955 1.256 33139.331 1956 1.345 36037.175 1957 1.289 37155.159 1958 1.289 36031.808 1959 1.321 37403.482 1960 1.363 35157.740 CHEMICALS 5 1948 1.000 13056.000 1949 1.005 14743.284 1950 1,019 16512.267 1951 1. 195 18106.276 1952 1, 108 21264,440 1953 1.113 25887.691 1954 1.092 28784.799 1955 1,109 30730.388 1956 1.120 35113.393 1957 1. 106 39403.255 1958 1. 125 42457.778 1959 1. 104 48568.841 1960 1.112 - 47978.417 IRON 5 1.000 99190.000 1.065 106359.624 1.168 101661.815 1.234 145219.611 1.179 203661.578 1.225, 221869. 388 1.236 209506.472 1.298 202302.773 1.403 224271.561 1.477 217345.972 1.513 198483.146 1.519 204371.955 1.532 1896 37.728 NON-METALLIC 5 1,000 13921.000 1.009 14383.548 1.034 15473.888 1.084 17202.030 1.011 16354.105 1.050 20366.667 1.038 20108.863 1.016 24536.417 1-014 29092.702 1,073 27429.637 1.060 30329.245 1,027 32673.807 .986 34708.925 MISCELLANEOUS 5 1.000 38314.000 .994 49421.529 1,196 42423.913 1.577 59362.080 1.214 127460.461 1.117 158630.260 1.062 158308.851 1.158 185767.703 1.153 156753.686 1.111 167502.250 1.063 179937.912 1.135 161901.322 1.219 189198.523 - 127 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) 2. SUBPERIOD 1960-1968 YEAR PRICE QUANTITY PRICE QUANTITY FRESH FRUITS VEGETABLES 1960 1.433 64914.166 .947 52545.935 1961 1.547 63329.670 .944 50850.636 1962 1.649 60335.355 1.313 46391.470 1963 1.916 53576.722 1.066 51106.942 1964 1.873 61129.738 1.078 55756.030 1965 1.759 67785.105 1.313 51513.328 1966 1.697 71630.524 1.369 54712.199 1967 1.673 77245.666 1.216 63045.230 SUGAR , RAW COCOA BEANS 1960 .737 68761.194 .713 12767.181 1961 .690 76418.841 .590 13254.237 1962 .676 84210.059 .590 13589.831 1963 1.532 82725.196 .637 12610.675 1964 1.314 77525.875 .666 14779.279 1965 .589 93606.112 .493 19267.748 1966 .522 85963.602 .592 13929.054 1967 .565 84203.540 .700 14708.571 COFFEE TEA 1960 1.345 35177.695 1.072 2190 3.918 1961 1.322 39473.525 1.056 22565.341 1962 1.281 43446.526 1.070 20776.636 1963 1.296 45452.932 1.098 22653.005 1964 1.704 43992.371 1. 148 22097.561 1965 1.625 44387.077 1.130 22079.646 1966 1.581 41035.421 1.036 21697.876 1967 1.468 47461.172 1.012 22844.862 INDIAN CORN LIVE ANIMALS 1960 .661 26639.939 .571 13416.813 1961 .684 4 0062.865 .623 11709.470 1962 .719 60504.868 .696 11304.598 1963 .795 40586.164 .696 13897.989 1964 .801 37483.146 .629 27224.165 1965 .819 33930.403 .671 16096.870 1966 .865 36478.613 .757 17054.161 1967 1.197 35212.197 .757 28923.382 ^ 128 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) EES. SECTION 12 SOYABEANS 1960 1.006 281933.400 .622 51774.920 1961 1,056 295047.348 .771 39249.027 1962 1.077 287664.810 .786 47506.361 1963 1.081 335365.402 .849 48402.827 1964 1.074 336059.590 . 847 62454.545 1965 1.081 353856.614 .854 54247.073 1966 1.090 388306.422 .970 54059.794 1967 1.005 460586.070 .873 55054.983 FURS HIDES 1960 .714 26701,681 .591 6245.347 1961 .727 24990.371 .649 10468.413 1962 .747 24566.265 .667 9361.319 1963 .998 21180,361 .483 9134.576 196* < ,94tt 20943.856 .461 10336.226 1965 .922 22481,562 .556 9875.899 1966 1.059 19233.239 .834 12360.911 1967 .807 21840.149 .627 11834.131 COTTON, RAH WOOL, RAW 1960 .770 56320.779 1.133 9862.312 1981 ; .900 59141.250 1.054 11346.300 1962 .866 , 62740.185 1. 119 10862.377 196 3 .845 6 0618.935 1.243 9428.801 1964 .836 71843.301 1.549 10947.063 1965 .851 75266.745 1.238 11240.711 1966 .790 57751.899 1.205 11317.842 1967 . 793 74871.375 1.096 9899.635 WOOL, TOPS SYNTHETICS 1960 .873 15150.057 1,032 5354.651 1961 .896 16529.018 1.043 6446.788 1962 -963 18470.405 1.064 7806.391 1963 1.090 22691.743 1.064 6582.707 1964 1. 164 21382.302 1.089 11187.328 1965 1.007 23604.767 1. 100 20809.091 1966 1.015 .21154.680 1.118 16147.585 1967 .978 19385.481 1.102 18647.005 - 129 - TABLE A . I l l (CONTINUED) IBON OBE BAUXITE*ALUM. 1960 2.062 32477.207 1.117 40514.772 1961 2.143 27613.626 1.231 47221.771 1962 2.123 32474.329 1.445 43098.270 1963 2.165 39868.360 1. 145 58645.415 1964 2. 111 44872.099 1. 152 61131-944 1965 2.117 45659.424 1. 186 58913. 153 1966 2. 136 36036.985 1.205 63587.552 1967 2.141 22425.969 1.231 60590.577 COAL, ANTH. COAL, BITUM. 1960 1.029 12833.819 1.020 61997.059 1961 1.089 10046.832 1.055 56848.341 1962 1.141 8883.436 1.077 59119.777 1963 1.225 8204.082 1.079 63269.694 1964 1.281 6227.166 1,077 72610.956 1965 1.218 6317.734 1.462 80861.149 1966 1. 157 5831.461 1.669 80310.965 1967 1. 174 5183.986 1.759 79056.282 PETROLEUM RUBBER 1960 .878 318987.472 1.849 14861.547 1961 .862 337784.223 1.344 13622.024 1962 .894 341049.217 1.371 16100.656 1963 .894 374453.020 1.323 16204.082 1964 .878 365190.205 1.242 18276. 167 1965 .854 365642.857 1.113 19576.819 1966 .807 370509.294 1. 172 21244.027 1967 .819 433963.370 .989 19677.452 RES. SECTION 3 VEGET. OILS 1960 .961 125640.999 .605 33540.496 1961 .969 133197.110 .711 38151.899 1962 .981 142658.512 .743 33188.425 1963 .988 148775.304 .722 34199.446 1964 .994 175526.157 .647 36282.844 1965 .985 185386.802 .728 40989.011 1966 .993 224599.194 .691 51729.378 1967 .988 23 9681. 174 .633 45211.690 - 130 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) COTTON, FA BR. JOTE, FA BR. 1960 .675 108862.222 .623 20158.909 1961 .726 102243.802 .808 19818.069 1962 .770 89992.208 .788 24958.122 1963 .747 86950.469 .801 26590.512 1964 .748 100025.401 .923 21100.758 1965 .644 108959.627 1.055 20475.829 1966 .628 128609.873 1.150 21952.174 1967 .601 125420.965 1.036 23637.066 WORSTEDS PAPERBOARD 1960 .949 22782.929 1. 177 37818.182 1961 .983 24596.134 1.207 39753.107 1962 .969 27589.267 1.282 38562.402 1963 .949 24417.281 1.284 38326.324 1964 1.083 24117.267 1.283 42097.428 1965 1. 128 23945.035 1.286 45360.031 1966 1. 134 21708.113 1.318 47067.527 1967 1.160 22474.138 1.619 39862.878 ROLLING MILL TIN, BLOCKS 1960 1.641 82119.439 . 998 8274.549 1961 1.654 67659.613 1. 149 7739.774 1962 1.741 64036.186 1.243 4991.150 1963 1.780 76803.933 1.269 9208.038 1964 1.787 119578.623 1.651 10640.824 1965 1.708 167900.468 1.979 10956.038 1966 1.683 123428.996 1.808 9338.496 1967 1.696 119508.255 1.662 9989.170 GLASS GASOLINE 1960 1.480 13612.838 .986 15000.000 1961 1.527 14890.635 1.034 9925.532 1962 1.609 18550.031 .939 8495.208 1963 1.634 17892.289 1. 184 8353.885 1964 1.711 20146.698 .687 13577.875 1965 1.696 20973.467 .762 12633.858 1966 1. 676 21986.277 1.082 9973.198 1967 1.748 18418.764 1.136 15235.035 - 131 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) FERTILIZERS CHEMICALS, IND. 1960 1.019 14187.439 1.165 8707.296 1961 1.075 15381.395 1. 198 9106.845 1962 1. 169 13230.111 1. 195 8478.661 1963 1. 158 11575.130 1. 192 9545.302 1964 1.175 13235.745 1.188 44500.000 1965 1.217 12749.384 1. 180 51688.983 1966 1.219 13141.099 1.231 53635.256 1967 1.219 11347.006 1.252 58719.649 RES. SECTION 4 FARM MACHINERY 1960 1.340 716311.940 1. 383 153472.885 1961 1.374 740469.432 1. 476 144608.401 1962 1.422 786130.098 1. 586 147754.098 1963 1.433 820221.912 1. 625 184488.000 1964 1.480 859200.000 1. 651 200191.399 1965 1.498 986184.913 1. 680 210938.690 1966 1.474 1119694.030 1. 728 239344.329 1967 1.472 1178651.495 1. 785 234421.289 MACHINERY AUTOMOBILES 1960 1.465 381155.631 1.340 434628.358 1961 1.535 360715.961 1.394 378868.723 1962 1.630 389156.442 1.467 425743.695 1963 1.647 418285.367 1.473 453925.322 1964 1.667 528133.773 1.479 552956.051 1965 1.686 603626.335 1.483 758449.764 1966 1.735 669207.493 1.481 1067288.994 1967 1.781 645581.134 1.498 1447505.340 ELECTRIC RES. SECTION 5 1960 1.484 157024. 259 1. 375 829308.364 1961 1.522 161544. 021 1. 398 962888.412 1962 1.577 189440. 076 1. 424 954095.506 1963 1.567 179148. 692 1. 430 863167.832 1964 1.557 203793. 192 1. 443 939126.126 1965 1.549 238100. 065 1. 457 1105415.237 1966 1.568 300562. 500 1. 471 1262276.683 1967 1.615 338734. 365 1. 490 1521024.161 - 132 - TABLE A.XII YE AB 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD 1968-1972 PRICE QUANTITY FRESH FRUITS .902 1.000 .922 1.008 1.037 1. 139 143272.727 141293.000 161867.679 151630.952 160121.504 158932.397 PRICE QUANTITY FRESH VEGETABLES 917 000 031 996 181 1.160 83601.963 86590.000 87922.405 95935.743 85342.083 98662.931 RAH SUGAR COCOA 1967 .992 47958.669 .863 11930.475 1968 1.000 46411.000 1.000 12156.000 1969 1.376 51080.669 1.252 9160.543 1970 1.665 51216.216 1.242 11602.254 1971 2.000 48505.000 .951 11760.252 1972 2.661 49051.484 .846 14355.792 COFFEE TEA 1967 1.003 69464.606 1.091 21190.651 1968 1.000 72037.000 1.000 23124.000 1969 .992 70431.452 .989 21712.841 1970 1.256 64878.981 1.030 19574.757 1971 1.130 72998.230 1.021 22731.636 1972 1.194 68293.132 1.052 22865.970 INDIAN CORN HEAT 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1. 130 000 089 159 186 077 37300.000 40037.000 34355.372 24746.333 11701.518 23256.267 1.028 1.000 .957 1.002 1.111 1.131 48156.615 56591.000 112452.456 103915.170 79422.142 124832.891 LIVE ANIMALS RES. SECTION 12 1967 .951 23023.134 .957 431958.203 1968 1.000 15554.000 1.000 424394.000 1969 .992 18861.895 1.059 458860.246 1970 .985 30916.751 1.059 474564.684 1971 .979 40148.110 1.024 522171.875 1972 .948 47159.283 1.092 591401.099 - 133 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINU ED) SOYA BEANS HIDES 1967 1.05 3 45643.875 1.099 6751.592 1968 1.000 31071.000 1.000 8549.000 1969 .972 42139.918 1.236 8358.414 1970 1.021 46000.979 1.082 7818.854 1971 1.123 41530.721 1.131 8063.660 1972 1.218 3210 8.374 1.986 7821.249 COTTON, HAW WOOL, RAW 1967 .891 666 36.364 1.189 9125.315 1968 1.000 49918.000 1.000 9837.000 1969 .911 51257.958 1.078 8355.288 1970 .846 44455.083 .980 6387.755 1971 .874 52542.334 .851 5075.206 1972 1.058 49482.987 1.094 5534.735 WOOL , TOPS IRON ORE 1967 1. 147 16529.207 1.127 42603.372 1968 1.000 17959.000 1.000 48661.000 1969 1.009 17128.840 1.070 44398.131 1970 .957 13964.472 1. 169 46500.428 1971 .828 12873.188 1. 133 44947.043 1972 .997 14117.352 1.061 50038.643 BAUXITE + ALUHIN.: COPPER ORE 1967 .958 77856.994 .895 30589.944 1968 1.000 83668.000 1.000 61345.000 1969 1.015 101420.690 1.036 9407.336 1970 1.010 98603.960 .903 9578.073 1971 1.009 95913.776 .793 23665.826 1972 .978 78285.276 .706 20104.816 COAL* BITUM. PETROLEUM 1967 .958 145156.576 .995 357202.010 1968 1.000 154391.000 1.000 372586.000 1969 .997 108042.126 .971 405203.913 1970 1.218 118224.959 .952 436093.487 1971 1.268 113192.429 1.057 511933.775 1972 1.416 120533.898 1.154 589898.614 - 134 - TABLE A.XII (CONTINUED) RUBBER RES. SECTION 3 1967 1. 143 17026.247 .981 258600.408 1968 1.000 17043,000 1.000 271716.000 1969 1.410 18856.028 1.105 247267.873 1970 1.236 18891.586 1.118 280684.258 1971 .975 18938.462 1.009 332497.522 1972 .880 21771.591 1.082 368053.604 COTTON, PABR. JUTE, FABR. 1967 .968 77869.835 1.096 22343.066 1968 1.000 5674 3.000 1.000 21346.000 1969 1.003 61859.422 1. 133 22823.477 1970 .992 57442.540 1.154 20866.551 1971 .997 73266.800 1.218 17072.250 1972 1.076 97508.364 1.383 16181.490 WORSTEDS COATED FABRICS 1967 1.066 24455.910 .994 26043.260 1968 1.000 25111.000 1.000 35123.000 1969 1.026 24858,674 .935 43534.759 1970 .976 22086.066 1,065 42461.033 1971 .906 15975.717 1. 136 44065.141 1972 .922 18138.829 1. 150 51373.913 VENEERS ROLLING HILL 1967 ,966 30652.174 1,113 182107.817 196 8 1,000 33190.000 1.000 184309.000 1969 .967 50354.705 .997 277087.262 1970 .928 40600.216 1. 102 206261.343 1971 .848 56323.113 1. 125 249856.889 1972 .833 89993.998 1,183 257818.259 TIN, BLOCKS GASOLINE 1967 1.054 15751.423 .963 17971.963 1968 1.000 14892.000 1.000 16767.000 1969 1.048 17123.092 1.093 23560.842 1970 1.157 17414.002 1.028 19535.992 1971 1.057 17384.106 1.000 18322.000 1972 1.071 20116,713 1.029 12594.752 - 135 - TABLE A. XII (CONTINUED) HEAVY PUELS CHEMICALS, IND. 1967 1.021 62002.938 1.034 71099.613 1968 1.000 54539.000 1.000 78554.000 1969 .979 55990.807 .990 95366.667 1970 .979 58637,385 .980 96560.204 1971 1.354 50180.207 .955 107147.644 1972 1.354 44968.242 .929 130617.869 CHEHICALS, INORG. CHEMICALS, ORG., 1967 1.013 63993.090 1.073 108110.904 1968 1.000 67710.000 1.000 129036.000 1969 .920 84490.217 .967 142742.503 1970 .947 148177.402 .952 140278.361 1971 .927 100310.680 .835 164523.353 1972 .943 101358.431 .840 199707.143 BES. SECTION 4 FARM MACHINERY 1967 .946 1664408.034 .965 433618.653 1968 1.000 1717266.000 1.000 353192.000 1969 1.008 2001567.460 1.037 338594.986 1970 1.026 1955623.782 1.069 287391.955 1971 1.028 2155260,700 1.098 350504.554 1972 1.046 2405214.149 1.138 431059.754 DRILLING MACHINERY AUTOMOBILES 1967 .961 . 221206.035 .971 2233123.584 1968 1.000 231741.000 1.000 3000856.000 1969 1.027 293267.770 1.030 3465883.495 1970 1.042 257561.420 1,033 3147661.181 1971 1.046 280972.275 1.049 3918050.524 1972 1,046 354387.189 1.084 4551929.889 ELECTRICAL RES. SECTION 5 1967 .986 554823.529 .975 3285668.718 1968 1.000 592100.000 1.000 3441665.000 1969 1,013 709233.959 1.030 3829335.922 1970 1.010 699683.168 1.059 3856386.213 1971 1.005 933017.910 1.077 3812202.414 1972 .997 1066104.313 1,089 4673321.396 - 136 - TABLE A . X I I I DISAGGREGATED VALUE AND PRICE SERIES, EXPORTS 1948-1972 1. SUBPERIOD 1948-1960 YEAR PRICE QUANTITY PRICE QUANTITY WHEAT BARLEY 1948 1.000 24 3023.000 1.000 26947.000 1949 1.156 376434.256 1.028 24778,210 1950 1. 117 291507.610 1.091 21486.709 1951 1.084 406866.236 .937 62776.948 1952 1.078 576337.662 .993 146710.977 1953 1.095 518636.530 .874 156440.503 1954 1.006 373100.398 .811 110188.656 1955 .994 340257.545 .839 91133.492 1956 .944 543518.008 .818 116108.802 1957 .916 415300.218 .76 9 87804.941 1958 .916 486984v716 .734 106427.793 1959 .939 470532.481 .741 89487.179 1960 .944 434801.907 .755 68133.775 WHISKY WHEAT FLOWER 1948 1.000 26957.000 1.000 125151.000 1949 1.088 30057.904 .996 98085.341 1950 1.215 34306.173 .920 101998.913 1951 1.211 44623.452 .933 122030.011 1952 1.189 45629.941 .866 134012.702 1953 1.189 53058.032 .907 112635.061 1954 1.204 49132.890 .864 101885.417 1955 1. 199 50760.634 . 857 86863.477 1956 1. 192 57600.671 .824 86831.311 1957 1. 210 55366.942 .795 76949.686 1958 1.172 59962.457 .781 88857.875 1959 1.212 64572.607 .758 85624.011 1960 1.221 64881.245 .766 81251.958 OATS TOBACCO 1948 1.000 22560.000 1.000 8099.000 1949 .921 20122.693 1.077 8000.929 1950 1.030 16088.350 .965 10934.715 1951 1.021 52790.402 1.101 14907.357 1952 .947 72059.134 1. 130 19664.602 1953 .844 71567.536 1.081 14507.863 1954 .907 35796.031 1.110 16293.694 1955 1.037 11504.339 1.110 23916.216 1956 .983 9477.111 1. 145 15126.638 1957 .839 26686.532 1. 157 18932. 584 1958 .862 15099.768 1.234 15036.467 1959 .911 8035.126 1.250 20112.000 1960 1.012 5717.391 1.367 18527.432 - 137 - TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) BEEP+VEAL MEAT CATTLE, SLAUGHTER 1948 1.000 36594.000 1.000 47226.000 1949 1.027 29823.759 1.039 44413.859 1950 1.36 8 25013.889 1.226 50314.845 1951 1.832 27819.323 1.761 25164.111 1952 1.523 19910.046 1.429 1114.066 1953 1.219 7602.133 1.256 4074.045 1954 .819 5540.904 1.085 8493.088 1955 1.050 2591.429 1. 112 3526.978 1956 .954 3819.706 .963 654.206 1957 . 946 14118.393 .939 44385.517 1958 1.261 16007.137 1.109 75834.986 1959 1.357 6793.66 2 1.269 31839.243 1960 1.287 5487.179 1.150 23106.957 CATTLE, DAIRY MILK 1948 1.000 26674.000 1.000 15190.000 1949 1.039 14728.585 .917 12223.555 1950 1.230 14178.862 .871 10529.277 1951 1.667 11248.350 . 974 9252.567 1952 1.516 1771.768 .929 14248.654 1953 1.073 9300.093 .903 11763.012 1954 .973 7591.984 .966 7889.234 1955 .990 9561.616 .997 8069.208 1956 1.022 10624.266 1.000 8952.000 1957 1.075 8735.814 1.000 7571.000 1958 1.289 10139.643 1.037 10791.707 1959 1.494 7742.303 1.026 17236.842 1960 1.440 7913.889 1.029 16942.663 EGGS FISH 2 194 8 1.000 24318.000 1.000 84465.000 194 9 1.040 14967.308 .925 100409.730 1950 .908 3959.251 1.009 110669.970 1951 1.040 3293.269 1.060 109996.226 1952 .870 6025.287 1.030 109343.689 1953 .982 3710.794 1.043 105710.451 1954 .914 3411.379 1.050 122670.476 1955 .886 1889.391 1.080 115006.481 1956 .936 1873.932 1.229 104848.657 1957 .699 4640.916 1.219 106050.861 1958 .727 7030.261 1.237 122132.579 1959 .571 8649.737 1.258 113645.469 1960 .673 4114.413 1.339 99732.636 - 138 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) AGR.+ANIM. 12 CHEMICALS 12 1948 1.000 239698.000 1. 000 493.000 1949 1.006 149275.348 1. 022 103.718 1950 1.015 147968.473 • 983 190.234 1951 1. 120 120833.036 1. 137 1267.370 1952 1.082 120767.098 1. 119 459.339 1953 1,021 160961,802 1. 108 872.744 1954 .977 153577.277 1. 088 8048.713 1955 .938 157886.994 1. 101 12924.614 1956 .976 160351.434 1. 119 9211.796 1957 1.026 124101.365 1. 137 11008.795 1958 .992 143745.968 1. 148 9016.551 1959 1,022 148090.998 1. 167 10904.027 1960 1.018 150318.271 1. 159 643.658 MISCELLANEOUS 12 FISH 3 1948 1.000 9.000 1.000 65.000 1949 1.037 4.822 .925 195.676 1950 1, 120 18.750 1.009 536.174 1951 1.323 6.047 1.060 280.189 1952 1.297 • 0.0 1.030 156.311 1953 1.236 + 0.0 1.043 119.847 1954 1.235 + 0.0 1.050 293.333 1955 1.252 .799 1.080 158.333 1956 1.266 6.319 1.229 191.212 1957 1.289 3.103 1.219 97.621 1958 1.288 2.329 1.237 56.589 1959 1.289 2.327 1.258 172.496 1960 1,339 2,987 1.339 192.681 LEATHER 3 FURS 1948 1.000 139.000 1.000 23262.000 1949 .941 108.395 .725 31080.000 1950 1. 181 80.440 .917 25945.474 1951 1.438 113.352 1.084 26121.771 1952 1. 138 164.323 .774 30370.801 1953 1.281 125.683 .741 28434.548 1954 1.209 72.787 .745 30868.456 1955 1.222 115.385 .871 32476.464 1956 1.284 152.648 .783 33068.966 1957 1.263 131,433 .725 35784.828 1958 1,322 44,629 .775 30092.903 1959 1.538 46.S14 .811 29750.925 1960 1.331 45.079 .822 28176.399 - 139 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) HIDES PULPWOOD 194 8 1,000 8411.000 1. 000 43573.000 1949 1.000 9303.000 1. 031 30375.364 1950 1. 152 6993.056 1. 049 33143.947 1951 1.531 4874.592 1. 222 55730.769 1952 .761 2549.277 1. 325 48920.755 1953 .735 3809.524 1. 310 35006.870 1954 .587 9056,218 1. 260 36322.222 1955 .539 9406.308 1. 265 38462-451 1956 .612 7341.503 1. 204 41357.143 1957 .598 11015,050 1. 267 38247.040 1958 .570 11601.754 1. 266 27373.618 1959 .934 8972. 163 1. 218 24414.614 1960 .734 14476.839 1. 224 25478.758 IRON ORE COPPER 3 1948 1. 000 5301.000 1. 000 11020.000 1949 1. 144 12340.035 1. 002 15935.130 1950 1. 212 10981.848 1. 048 15090.649 1951 1. 192 15600.671 1. 301 11752.498 1952 1. 156 19319,204 1. 445 11047.059 1953 1. 294 23835.394 ; 1. 428 22882.353 1954 1. 283 30957.911 1. 386 22163.059 1955 1, 358 73500.736 1. 709 23789.936 1956 1. 442 100168.516 1. 961 21663.947 1957 1. 488 102339.382 1. 34 1 22762.118 1958 1. 473 73098.439 1. 182 15165.821 1959 1. 452 108687.328 1. 391 14397.556 1960 1. 567 99216.337 1. 426 22171.108 LEAD 3 ALUMINUM 3 1948 1.000 1563.000 1.000 5142.000 1949 1.018 5068.762 1.044 1057.471 1950 .893 6566.629 1.054 1274.194 1951 1.146 6253.927 1.148 1087.108 1952 1.017 7926.254 1.251 521.183 1953 .713 20840.112 1.264 3011.076 1954 .709 20771.509 1.308 2973.242 1955 .761 19862.024 1.413 2945.506 1956 .858 15820.513 1.618 1600.124 1957 .713 14774.194 1.645 2035.258 1958 .535 20041.121 1.562 2104.994 1959 .527 19518.027 1.512 3227.513 1960 .533 18921,201 1.582 5719.975 - 140 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) NICKEL 3 ZINC 3 1948 1.000 29341.000 1.000 5651.000 1949 1.297 32728.604 1.036 12757.722 1950 1.545 30893.851 1. 141 15878.177 1951 1.860 32843.548 1.556 18152.314 1952 1.902 37492.114 1.532 22828.982 1953 2.000 35821.000 .912 25524.123 1954 2.047 36309.233 .801 23975.031 1955 2.205 36463.946 .926 25323.974 1956 2.248 39085.409 1.067 25302.718 1957 2.482 40448.832 .916 23406.114 1958 2.467 38019.457 .746 29432.976 1959 2.368 39539.274 .806 26743.176 1960 2.298 47301.567 .911 18858.397 SILVEH 3 PLATINUM 1948 1.000 2434.000 1.000 16832.000 1949 1.000 3005.000 1.045 17268.900 1950 1.074 2554.004 .919 23084.875 1951 1.222 1685.761 1.098 27649.362 1952 1.117 2533.572 1.021 29997.062 1953 1.117 4129.812 1.038 25327.553 1954 1.109 6276.826 .971 28465.499 1955 •1.157 4198.790 .936 28114.316 1956 1. 183 4962.806 1. 183 30140.321 1957 1.187 4164.280 1.037 26828.351 1958 1.174 3640.545 .782 19217.391 1959 1.217 5102.712 .771 16282.750 1960 1.222 6755.319 .910 17697.802 ASBESTOS COAL 1948 1.000 41399.000 1.000 11556.000 1949 1. 160 31839.655 1.042 3420.345 1950 1..257 49922.037 1.037 3083.896 1951 1,429 56216.235 1.075 3252.093 1952 1.543 56066.105 1.248 2567.308 1953 1.566 53622.605 1.289 1551.590 1954 1.542 53544.747 1.288 1332.298 1955 1.545 61361.812 1.283 3796.571 1956 1.636 61060.513 1.268 3714.511 1957 1.658 64570.567 1.321 2542.014 1958 1.704 53254.108 1.332 2183.183 1959 1.713 64466.433 1.370 2614.599 1960 1.706 70406.213 1.377 4930.283 - 141 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) AGE.tANIM. 3 TEXTILES 3 1948 1.000 61444.000 1.000 5915.000 1949 1.006 59167.992 1.034 5589.942 1950 1.015 38813.793 1. 128 6394.504 1951 1.120 35411.607 1.398 5645.923 1952 1.082 35010.166 1.200 4577.500 1953 1.021 35814.887 1. 141 5077.125 1954 .977 43506.653 1.086 5193.370 1955 .938 66505.330 1.064 6552.632 1956 .976 82461.066 1.087 6238.270 1957 1.026 107637.427 1. 124 7105.872 1958 .992 96210.685 1.080 4595.370 1959 1.022 87068.493 1.078 5577.922 1960 1,018 94990.177 1.105 4677.828 WOOD 3 IRON 3 1948 1.000 22786.000 1.000 187.000 1949 .981 19399.592 1.096 920.620 1950 1.059 15050.99 2 1.114 1825.853 1951 , 1.229 17529.699 1.249 1293.835 1952 1.236 27430.421 1.336 3133.982 1953 1.197 17298.246 1.378 11521.771 1954 1.172 15327.645 1.335 11886.142 1955 1.194 16820.771 1.368 15304.094 1956 1.228 16678.339 1.455 20912.027 1957 1.232 17315.747 1. 535 18644.951 1958 1.223 14183.974 1.568 7904.337 1959 1.228 15208.469 1.612 7928.660 1960 1.214 16259.473 1.608 8504.353 NON-FERROUS 3 NON -METALLIC 3 1948 1.000 9662.000 1.000 8312.000 1949 .892 6902.466 1. 124 6542.705 1950 1.175 5297.021 1.206 6741.294 1951 1.348 4316.024 1.317 8249.051 1952 1.393 9705.671 1.432 10006.285 1953 1.364 15462.610 1.494 13473.226 1954 1.362 13997.063 1.502 13932.756 1955 1.475 35334.237 1.499 38260.841 1956 ' 1.605 48353.894 1.561 8301 1.531 1957 1.541 99513.952 1.594 110172.522 1958 1.494 192726.238 1.653 68726.558 1959 1 ; 1.527 211666.012 1.651 77243.489 1960 1.688 162848.341 1.653 92943.739 - 142 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS 3 FISH 4 1948 1.000 351.000 1. 000 498.000 1949 1.037 315.333 • 925 744.865 1950 1.120 392.857 1. 009 506.442 1951 1,323 541,194 1. 060 538.679 1952 1.297 431.766 1. 030 524.272 1953 1.236 478.155 1. 043 721.956 1954 1.235 396.761 1. 050 740.952 1955 1.252 658.147 1. 080 842.593 1956 1.266 706,161 1. 229 678.600 1957 1.289 659.426 1. 219 770.304 1958 1.288 767.857 1. 237 1007.276 1959 1.289 843.289 1. 258 821.145 1960 1.339 143.391 1. 339 622.853 LEATHER 4 NEWSPRINT 1948 1.000 9102.000 1. 000 383123.000 1949 .941 4905.420 1. 041 416793.468 1950 1.181 5029.636 1. 111 437215.122 1951 1.438 4764.951 1. 185 452634.599 1952 1. 138 3750.439 1. 253 472298.484 1953 1.281 5175.644 1. 300 476179.231 1954 1.209 5738.627 1. 300 488976.923 1955 1.222 6412.439 1. 305 510250.575 1956 1.284 6769.470 1. 341 528251.305 1957 1.263 7603.325 1. 368 523019.006 1958 1.322 7863.843 1. 370 503802.190 1959 1.538 7104.681 1. 379 523764.322 1960 1.331 6665.665 1. 381 548826.937 WOOD PULP PLANKS 1948 1.000 211564.000 1.000 196023.000 1949 .911 187349.067 .936 171388.889 1950 .930 224253.763 1.036 280740.347 1951 1.356 269272.124 1,166 267751.286 ffS2 1.245 234428.112 1.136 260518.486 1953 1.039 239340.712 1.077 261934.076 1954 1.007 269531.281 1.038 312836.224 1955 1.016 292622.047 1.074 358764.432 1956 1.045 291422.010 1.067 305946.579 1957 L049 278747.378 1.004 280558.765 1958 1.056 270311.553 .973 300116.136 1959 1.054 295306.452 .995 324493.467 1960 1.016 320001.969 .974 355544.148 - 143 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) SHINGLES 1948 1.000 22155.000 1949 .819 2026 3.736 1950 1. 170 27459.829 1951 1. 115 24443.946 1952 .995 19945.729 1953 1.062 19557.439 1954 1. 104 21779.891 1955 1.225 23541.224 1956 1.300 18670.769 1957 1.170 16368.376 1958 1.131 17297.082 1959 1.253 16823.623 1960 1.131 18235.190 PIG IRON 1948 1.000 29.000 1949 .987 555.218 1950 .973 8589.928 1951 1.246 9874.799 1952 1. 155 16595.671 1953 1. 114 15245.961 1954 1. 120 8948.214 1955 1.181 11238.781 1956 1.241 11375.504 1957 1. 297 25503.470 1958 1.340 13626.866 1959 1.248 20209.135 1960 1.216 19555.921 LEAD 4 1948 1.000 32759.000 1949 1.018 36075.639 1950 .893 36104.143 1951 1. 146 33266. 143 1952 1.017 40919.371 1953 .713 32224.404 1954 .709 36393.512 1955 .761 29011.827 1956 .858 25002.331 1957 .713 26454.418 1958 .535 28742.056 1959 .527 28810.247 1960 .533 29939.962 PLYWOOD 1 .000 11928. 000 .936 5306. 624 1 .105 6200. 905 1 .254 8213.716 1 .254 8236. 045 1 .228 6529. 316 1 .105 9486. 878 1 .167 13944. 302 1 .096 12471. 715 .956 12345. 188 .930 10416.129 .958 15122.129 .844 1856 3.981 COPPER 4 1 .000 64187. 000 1 .002 67950. 100 1 .048 64099.237 1 .301 51038. 432 1 .445 58714. 879 1 .428 59295. 518 1 .386 69708. 514 1 .709 72128. 145 1 .961 77370. 219 1 .341 87042. 506 1 .182 99064. 298 1 .391 99784. 328 1 .426 126098. 177 ALUMINUM 4 1 .000 87596. 000 1 .044 86137. 931 1 .054 96644. 213 1 .148 104185. 540 1 .251 123463. 629 1 .264 134155. 854 1 .308 136470.183 1 .413 146361. 642 •1 .618 143521. 632 1 .645 137409. 119 1 .562 140303.457 1 .512 149341. 270 1 .582 16 3783.186 - 144 - TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) NICKEL 4 1948 1.000 44461.000 1949 1.297 38453.354 1950 1.545 37261.489 1951 1.860 40645.699 1952 1.902 41888.538 1953 2.000 45450.500 1954 2.047 52676.600 1955 2.205 61118.367 1956 2.248 60073.399 1957 2.482 59572.925 1958 2.467 48149.980 1959 2.368 56261.402 1960 2.298 62031.767 SILVER 4 1948 1.000 4026.000 1949 1.000 4568.000 1950 1.074 6218.808 1951 1.222 11800.327 1952 1.117 11296.329 1953 1.117 10950.761 1954 1. 109 10813.345 1955 1.157 12519.447 1956 1.183 10837.701 1957 1. 187 9849.200 1958 1. 174 12163.543 1959 1.217 11101.890 1960 1.222 9259.411 FEETILIZESS 1948 1.000 36374.000 1949 1.081 36433.858 1950 1. 112 34958.633 1951 1.203 29704.073 1952 1.281 33015.613 1953 1.246 34215.891 1954 1.223 34621.423 1955 1.204 46757*475 1956 1.163 42313.844 1957 * 1.128 43402.482 1958 1. 141 40732.691 1959 1. 125 43370.667 1960 1. 146 45678.883 ZINC 4 1. 000 36686. 000 1.036 41006. 757 1.141 35577.564 1.556 35619. 537 1.532 40019. 582 .912 37601. 974 .801 48923. 845 .926 50871. 490 1.067 4406O. 918 .916 47468. 341 .746 44809.651 .806 41851. 117 .911 50883. 644 ABRASIVES 1.000 13381. 000 1.084 10577. 491 1.179 12525. 021 1.182 18085. 448 1.245 14217.671 1.455 19914.777 1.559 17461. 193 1.539 17506. 173 1.578 17990. 494 1.641 20664. 839 1.766 12863. 533 1.691 16402. 720 1.723 18419. 037 AGE. +ANIH. 4 1.000 20351. 000 1.006 18724. 652 1.015 10379. 310 1. 120 13514. 286 1.082 10082. 255 1.021 10257. 591 .977 9423.746 .938 '15 2 29 • 211 .976 19140. 369 1.026 17385. 965 .992 14575. 605 1.022 16666. 341 1.018 15054. 028 - 1A5 - TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) TEXTILES 4 1948 1. 000 22585.000 1949 1. 034 14340.426 1950 1. 128 15340,426 1951 1. 398 16792.561 1952 1. 200 15260.833 1953 1. 141 12918,493 1954 1. 086 11009.208 1955 1. 064 11195.489 1956 1. 087 10526.219 1957 1. 124 13887.011 1958 1. 080 11793.519 1959 1. 078 14222.635 1960 1. 105 25919.457 IRON 4 1948 1. 000 61654.000 1949 1. 096 47822.080 1950 1. 114 43585.278 1951 1. 249 47820,657 1952 1. 336 50848.054 1953 1. 378 40616.110 1954 1. 335 14198.502 1955 1. 368 47445.175 1956 1. 455 44381,443 1957 1. 535 51579.805 1958 1. 568 36500.638 1959 1. 612 60403.226 1960 1. 608 81036.070 NON-METALLIC 4 1948 1. 000 19390.000 1949 1. 124 12058.719 1950 1. 206 11645.108 1951 1. 317 10923.311 1952 1. 432 14694.134 1953 1. 494 7854.083 1954 1. 502 8366.178 1955 1. 499 14376.251 1956 1. 561 18401,666 1957 1. 594 22927.227 1958 1. 653 11862.674 1959 1. 651 14392.489 1960 1. 653 15788.264 WOOD 4 1.000 53442. 000 .981 33586. 137 1.059 31237. 016 1.229 40559. 805 1.236 41330. 906 1.197 37559. 733 1,172 36840. 444 1. 194 44530. 988 1.228 48881. 922 1.232 47622. 565 1.223 48026. 165 1,228 55775. 244 1.214 55470. 346 NON-FERROUS 4 1.000 26040. 000 .892 18628. 924 1.175 17466. 383 1,348 22216. 617 1.393 42380. 474 1.364 2239 3• 695 1.362 20937. 592 1.475 24147. 797 1.605 27257. 944 1.541 24689. 163 1.494 16280. 455 1.527 18455. 141 1.688 19881. 517 CHEMICALS 4 1,000 38848.000 1.022 26381. 605 .983 58104. 781 1,137 78043. 975 1,119 68558.534 1.108 79914.260 1.088 96284. 007 1. 101 98643. 052 1.119 105646. 113 1.137 111637. 643 1.148 113691. 638 1.167 114111. 397 1.159 154019. 845 - 146 - TABLE A.XTII (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS 4 1948 1.000 4376.000 1949 1.037 4671.167 1950 1. 120 5448.214 1951 1.323 6000.000 1952 1.297 7074.788 1953 1.236 6751.618 1954 1.235 6009.717 1955 1.252 8479.233 1956 1.266 12002.370 1957 1.289 14869.666 1958 1.288 9767.081 1959 1.289 10826.222 1960 1.339 11595.220 MACHINERY 1948 1.000 40539.000 1949 1.069 29784.846 1950 1. 136 22573.944 1951 1.208 33336.921 1952 1.144 41414.336 1953 1.161 33262.705 1954 1.183 32267.117 1955 1.230 29096.748 1956 1.317 35785.877 1957 1.368 41796.053 1958 1.418 33061.354 1959 1.428 33895.658 1960 1.465 45784.300 AGR.+AHIM. 5 1948 1.000 28449.000 1949 1.006 15472.167 1950 1.015 13933.005 1951 1.120 24391.071 1952 1.082 16566.543 1953 1.021 9704.212 1954 .977 12319.345 1955 .938 10976.546 1956 .976 9840.164 1957 1.026 9505.848 1958 .992 8724.798 1959 1.022 . 11948.141 1960 1.018 9157.171 FARM MACHINERY 1. 000 73760.000 •1. 110 83357.658 1. 158 75829.879 1. 312 81126.524 1. 368 77052.632 1. 381 53813.179 1. 387 55350.397 1. 394 54526.542 1. 468 45964.578 1. 569 44407.903 1. 659 58827.004 1. 743 65803.213 1. 767 48345.218 AUTOMOBILES 1. 000 55086.000 1. 178 32943.973 1. 168 34441.781 1. 246 63504.013 1. 256 88387.739 1. 265 59539.921 1. 258 21544.515 1. 273 31247.447 1. 360 31241.176 1. 444 27753.463 1. 523 23636.244 1. 549 22790.833 1. 565 33133.546 TEXTILES 5 1. 000 17054.000 1. 034 4457.447 1. 128 4482.270 1. 398 3926.323 1. 200 3242.500 1. 14 1 3330.412 1. 086 3105.893 1. 064 3695.489 1. 087 3997.240 1. 124 3173.488 1. 080 2740.741 1. 078 3387.755 1. 105 4895.023 - 147 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) WOOD .5 IBQH 5 1948 1.000 9080.000 1.000 44909.000 1949 .981 5588.175 1.096 56206.204 1950 1.059 4748.820 1.114 22594.255 1951 1.229 6772.172 1.249 19391.513 1952 1.236 5826.861 1.336 22098.802 1953 1.197 4405.180 1.378 36656.749 1954 1.172 4357,509 1.335 55492.135 1955 1,194 4528.476 1.368 35290.205 1956 1.228 5577.362 1.455 33122.337 1957 1.232 5788.961 1.535 38274.919 1958 1.223 5175.797 1.568 35968.750 1959 1.228 5777.687 1.612 44514.268 1960 1.214 6597.199 1.608 48282.338 NON-FEBBOUS 5 NON-METALLIC 5 1948 1.000 18548.000 1.000 877,000 1949 .892 14822.870 1. 124 745.552 1950 1. 175 9842.553 1.206 633,499 1951 1.348 14148.368 1.317 814.730 1952 1.393 25303.661 1.432 480.447 1953 1.364 28397.361 1.494 388.889 1954 1.362 17651.248 1.502 383.489 1955 1.475 14722.034 1.499 453.636 1956 1.605 14209.969 1.561 512.492 1957 1.541 17316.677 1.594 501.255 1958- 1.494 17565.596 1.653 464,005 1959 1.527 22259.987 1.651 723.198 1960 1.688 29303.318 1.653 724.138 CHEMICALS 5 MISCELLANEOUS 5 1948 1.000 4125.000 1.000 107826.000 1949 1.022 4153.620 1.037 82468.660 1950 .983 4422.177 1.120 25064.286 1951 1.137 5082.674 1.323 12587.302 1952 1.119 4504.915 1.297 44181.187 1953 1.108 5180.505 1.236 65558.252 1954 1.088 4997.243 1.235 40391.093 1955 1,101 3973.660 1.252 22862.620 1956 1,119 4572.833 1.266 43848.341 1957 1-137 6065.084 1,289 59020.171 1958 1. 148 8454.704 1,288 111445.652 1959 1. 167 6035.990 1.289 42860.357 1960 1..159 5249.353 1.339 34989.544 - 148 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) 2. SUBPERIOD 1960-1968 YEAR PRICE QUANTITY PRICE QUANTITY WHEAT BARLEY 1960 .944 434801.907 .755 68133.775 1961 1.011 655975.272 .727 67353.508 1962 1.134 530439.153 .979 30568.948 1963 1.117 704390.331 .867 28286.044 1964 1.145 893900.437 .853 60086.753 1965 1.073 783014.911 . 916 47684.498 1966 1.106 959014.467 .958 46927.975 1967 1.184 626586.149 .930 78074.194 WHISKY WHEAT PLOWER 1960 1.221 64881.245 .766 81251.958 1961 1.214 66224.876 .787 77606.099 1962 1.250 67908.000 .854 66795.082 1963 1.215 74176.955 .874 71643.021 1964 1.200 85683.333 .870 115235.632 1965 1. 174 99644.804 .948 69941.983 1966 1.204 105903.654 .944 87750.000 1967 1.171 120848.847 .957 63386.625 OATS TOBACCO 1960 1.012 5717.391 1. 367 18716.167 1961 1.062 2592.279 1.417 19777.699 1962 .935 7484.492 1.433 24551.291 1963 .924 24165.584 1.557 18973.025 1964 .921 13849.077 1.550 24751.613 1965 .978 19107.362 1.667 21213.557 1966 .982 13610.998 1.920 20834.896 1967 .917 7284.624 2.187 22805.213 * BEEF MILK 1960 1.287 5487.179 1.029 16942.663 196 1 1.166 8734.134 1.006 16109.344 1962 1.360 6032.353 1.054 12061.670 1963 1.415 5318.728 1.006 13583.499 1964 1.291 9418.280 1.000 33942.000 1965 1.255 23458.964 1.097 21139.471 1966 1.494 17637.216 1.146 12663.176 1967 1.633 8799.755 1.069 18442.470 - 149 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) EGGS FISH 1960 . 673 4114.413 1.339 96638.536 1961 .731 2768.810 1.379 98267.585 1962 .743 452.221 1.439 101715.080 1963 .770 496.104 1.460 109473.973 1964 .735 808.163 1.582 117813.527 1965 1.033 137.464 1.736 113265.553 1966 1.045 127.273 1. 779 113799.325 1967 .941 44.633 1.845 117203-794 CHEESE LIVE ANIHALS 1960 1. 135 5721.586 1.251 32804.157 1961 1.135 5589.427 1. 175 56937.021 1962 1.074 8278.399 1.306 52108.729 1963 1. 151 7855.778 1,280 32789.844 1964 1-192 9364.094 1.281 26943.013 1965 1.209 9657.568 1. 155 6 8513.420 1966 1.300 10902.308 1.314 59362.253 1967 1.314 8528.919 1.473 28725.730 RES. SECTION 12 FURS 1960 1.034 144194.391 .822 28176.399 1961 1.068 134013.109 .663 36122.172 1962 1.027 175335.930 .699 36546.495 1963 1-023 208671.554 -786 41165.394 1964 1.020 228120.588 .763 39748.362 1965 1,0 35 239176.812 .736 41175.272 1966 1.091 239538.038 .845 38563.314 1967 1.042 256720.729 .647 46669.243 HIDES PULPWOOD 1960 .734 14476.839 1.224 25478.758 1961 .777 13637.066 1.215 27827.984 1962 .828 11099.034 1. 182 30230.118 1963 .630 12625.397 1. 182 30444.162 1964 .601 15898.502 1.128 32645.390 1965 .684 22302.632 1.197 34101.086 1966 .955 28698.429 1,184 34606.419 1967 .718 26479.109 1.231 31128.351 150 ^ TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) IRON ORE PLATINUM 1960 1.567 99216.337 • 910 17658. 242 1961 1.656 86090.580 • 962 27363. 825 1962 1.700 129718.824 1. 016 23724. 409 1963 1.869 14 4970.037 • 999 23264. 264 1964 1.852 192228.402 1. 089 19733. 701 1965 1.854 194616.505 1. 172 26085. 324 1966 1.952 189041.496 1. 232 22560. 065 1967 1.985 192978.841 1. 338 23193. 572 ASBESTOS COAL 1960 1.738 69109.896 1.377 4930.283 1961 1.747 75180.882 1.417 6027.523 1962 1.753 77374.786 1.608 5342.040 1963 1.728 80698.495 1.745 5682.521 1964 1.705 91323.167 1.792 6732.701 1965 1.751 90609.366 1.787 7153.330 1966 1.779 102576.728 1.691 8027.794 1967 1.826 94412.377 1.598 9706.508 RES. SECTION 3 LEATHER 1960 1.637 458811.851 1.373 6476.329 1961 1.666 491184.874 1.373 7981.792 1962 1.751 515290.120 1.351 8350.111 1963 1.771 511633.540 1.242 7623.188 1964 1.80 4 551092.018 1.225 7903.673 1965 1.863 598223.833 .796 10982.412 1966 1. 943 645288.729 .846 11698.582 1967 2.000 709384.000 .771 12019.455 NEWSPRINT WOOD PULP 1960 1.381 548826.937 1.016 320001.969 1961 1.375 553682.182 .978 354459.100 1962 1.381 545300.507 . 978 378222.904 1963 1.381 550318.610 .958 423060.543 1964 1.381 604377.987 .983 468824.008 1965 1.366 636592.972 .999 493994.995 1966 1.397 693073.729 .982 529600.815 1967 1.445 661080.277 .987 550590.679 - 151 - TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) LUBBER SHINGLES 1960 .974 355544.148 1. 131 18235.190 1961 .929 381987.083 1. 063 19233.302 1962 .926 428452.484 1. 131 20903.625 1963 .945 478819.048 1. 24 4 24370.579 1964 .964 495172.199 1. 316 24275.076 1965 .982 498914.460 1. 256 23200.637 1966 1.023 467305.963 1. 236 21286.408 1967 1.040 489822.115 1. 239 21292.978 PLYWOOD PIG IRON 1960 .844 18563.981 1. 216 19555.921 1961 .813 19725.707 1. 222 23787.234 1962 .792 29416.667 1. 277 19552.858 1963 .899 31632.925 1. 271 19135.327 1964 .781 48463.508 1. 232 23856.331 1965 . 792 47361.111 1. 209 24385.443 1966 .771 53849.546 1. 314 20590.563 1967 .729 65183.813 1. 243 20419.952 ROLLING HILL COPPER 1960 1.640 40875.000 1. 426 126098.177 1961 1.64 0 29050.610 1. 400 123874.286 1962 1.636 35603.912 1. 500 102792.000 1963 1.629 45529.159 1. 458 105821.674 1964 1.629 52950.890 1. 528 113829.188 1965 1.686 55921.708 1. 709 103056.758 1966 1.702 55881.904 2. 318 96664.366 1967 1.683 64490.196 2. 297 132079.234 ALUMINUM NICKEL 1960 1.582 164558.786 2. 298 62031.767 1961 1.638 147634.310 2 • 484 77152.576 1962 1.663 171108.839 2. 715 70554.696 1963 1.660 182367.470 2. 485 70570.624 1964 1.756 181057.517 2. 401 82109.538 1965 1.750 206265,714 2. 386 87118.189 1966 1.744 213460.436 2. 472 85935.680 1967 1.783 223729.669 2. 731 83960.820 • - 152 - TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) ZINC ABEASIYES 1960 .911 50883.644 1.723 18821.242 1961 .813 51706.027 1.836 16015.251 1962 .781 52209.987 1.780 16905.056 1963 .824 50564.320 1.720 16061,628 1964 1.025 60220^488 1.766 16865.232 1965 1.062 66839.925 1.805 18972.853 1966 1.031 64805.044 1. 800 21646.111 1967 .949 75348.788 1,825 18914.521 FEHTILIZEBS ELECTRICITY 1960 1. 146 45678.883 1..17.3 13236.147 1961 1,145 46531.004 1.353 11673.319 1962 1.163 51466.036 1,64 0 10065.854 1963 1.148 64876.307 1,640 9730.488 1964 1. 164 73973.368 1.713 10509.632 1965 1. 199 93212.677 1.713 9043.783 1966 1.237 112783.347 1.713 9450.088 1967 1.263 122424.386 1.727 9430.805 EES. SECTION 4 FASH MACHINERY 1960 1.079 401476.367 1. 767 50705. 150 1961 1.056 419454.545 1. 826 46849. 398 1962 1.060 441934.906 •1. 877 48736. 281 1963 1.110 477754.955 1. 918 59730. 970 1964 1. 149 565616.188 1. 959 71808. 065 1965 1. 190 587523.529 1. 996 81127. 756 1966 1.196 648474.916 2. 056 88763. 132 1967 1.187 670296.546 2. 118 91736. 544 MACHINERY AUTOMOBILES 1960 1,465 37004.096 1. 565 43087. 540 1961 1.536 42508.464 1. 607 28943. 995 1962 1.631 52126.303 1. 685 33873. 591 1963 1.647 65019.429 1. 663 52702. 946 1964 •1.667 81361,728 1. 66 9 106282. 804 1965 1.686 95177.936 1. 64 3 216661. 595 1966 1.735 120845.533 •1. 664 597112. 981 1967 1.781 136753.509 1. 622 1072232. 429 - 153 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) CONS. GOODS RUBBER 1960 1.222 5574.468 1. 802 3249.723 1961 1.227 7094.540 1.631 3151.441 1962 1.234 10669.368 1.566 4872.286 1963 1.248 16892.628 1.660 6653.012 1964 1.262 22726.624 1.709 4834.406 1965 1.277 25252.937 1.823 4097.641 1966 1.311 37577.422 1.791 5405.918 1967 1.368 39742.690 2.049 7917.521 RES..SECTION 5 1960 1. 618 115760. 816 1961 1. 667 176600. 480 1962 1. 675 239041. 194 1963 1. 681 260390. 244 1964 1. 695 364823. 009 1965 1. 720 338401. 744 1966 1. 74 3 387044. 177 1967 1* 768 491134. 050 - 154 - TABLE A.XIII (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD 1968-1972 YEAR PRICE QUANTITY PRICE QUANTITY WHEAT BARLEY 1967 1.050 706550.476 1.047 69349.570 1968 1.000 684469.000 1.000 40043.000 1969 .955 494978.010 .795 38272.956 1970 . 866 793801.386 .769 173573.472 1971 . 878 948930.524 .830 235256.627 1972 . 899 1031266.963 .830 261392.771 WHISKY WHEAT FLOWER 1967 1.002 141231.537 .959 63254.432 1968 1.000 158253.000 1.000 57940.000 1969 .980 192932.653 1.002 51992.016 1970 .916 199934.498 .975 59164.103 1971 .893 207123.180 .883 58028.313 1972 .867 241738.178 .850 51381.176 TOBACCO BEEF 1967 .966 51630.435 1.009 14248.761 1968 1.000 57467,000 1.000 23735.000 1969 .983 63942.014 1.128 23378.546 1970 .957 58981.191 1. 182 41002.538 1971 .940 61148.936 1. 190 39506.723 1972 .887 66710.259 1.322 29881.241 FISH CHEESE 1967 • 950 227622. 105 1.090 10281. 651 1968 1. 000 234533. 000 1.000 16236. 000 1969 1. 079 237417. 053 .991 14292. 634 1970 1. 187 207313. 395 1.069 15142. 189 1971 1. 271 209397. 325 1.524 12408. 136 1972 1. 501 207584. 277 1.910 7810. 995 LIVE ANIMALS RES. SECTION 1 2 1967 • 925 45743. 784 1.071 274447. 246 196 8 1. 000 59365. 000 1.000 281081. 000 1969 1. 164 46738. 832 .982 311550. 916 1970 1. 195 57044. 351 .949 391329. 821 1971 1. 196 56305. 184 .971 402512. 873 1972 1. 427 60337. 071 1. 168 382258. 562 - 155 - TABLE A,XIII (CONTINUED) 1967 .946 31918.605 1.193 15936.295 1968 1.000 33223.000 1.000 16133.000 1969 1.075 30576.744 1.313 13912.414 1970 .853 32375.147 1.227 13132.029 1971 .827 27465.538 1.096 12876.825 1972 1.079 28104.727, 2.185 16378.947 PULPWOOD IRON ORE 1967 .978 39180.982 1.007 380400.199 1968 1.000 36595.000 1.000 443202.000 1969 .990 32797.980 .960 336770.833 1970 1.039 36142.445 .992 479579.637 1971 1.070 33605.607 .986 419200.811 1972 1.096 24230.839 .962 366611.227 NICKEL PLATINUM 1967 .924 220758.658 .959 32359.750 1968 1.000 261030.000 1.000 40131.000 1969 1.066 211361.163 1.073 28773.532 1970 1.366 272029.283 1.128 40565.603 1971 1.368 297788.743 1.024 38078.125 1972 1.359 282423.841 1.004 35912.351 ASBESTOS PETROLEUM 1967 .976 176636.270 .993 400679.758 1968 1,000 192896.000 1.000 446413.000 1969 1.037 208558.341 .996 527891.566 1970 1.081 210220.167 1.007 644563.059 1971 1.092 207682.234 1.090 722382.569 1972 1.110 211854.955 1.105 911769.231 NATURAL GAS RES. SECTION 3 1967 .953 129762.854 .969 731433.437 1968 1.000 153752.000 1.000 844203.000 1969 1.023 172226.784 1.037 850518.804 1970 1,043 197495.686 1.055 973770.616 1971 1.082 231718.115 .935 1140450.267 1972 1.187 25 8502.949 .935 1224448.128 - 156 - TABLE &.XIII (CONTINUED) NEWSPRINT WOOD PULP 1967 .967 987860.393 1.016 534875.000 1968 1.000 989831.000 1.000 627874.000 1969 1.033 1089835.431 1.035 728007.729 1970 1.036 1071807.915 1.126 697359.680 1971. 1.050 1032836.190 1.115 715822.422 1972 1.079 1073169.601 1.068 767909.176 LUMBER PIG IRON 1967 .853 597203.986 1.005 25255.721 1968 1.000 656301.000 1.000 26967.000 1969 1.124 623310.498 .976 36695.697 1970 1.000 663775.000 1.031 34258.002 1971 1.091 760298.808 1.123 29178.094 1972 1.326 885552.036 1.103 34740.707 ROLLING MILL COPPER 1967 .982 110526.477 .955 317681.675 1968 1.000 137410.000 1.000 335675.000 1969 1.087 98168.353 1.045 243683.254 1970 1.054 188703.036 1.271 332437.451 1971 1.145 152691.703 .967 361348.501 1972 1.096 166109.489 .942 389226.115 ALTJMINOM NICKEL 1967 1.009 395351.833 .922 248695.228 1968 1.000 445128.000 1.000 245434.000 1969 1.054 450427.894 1.117 202443.151 1970 1.083 423487.535 1.477 293983.751 1971 .991 453590.313 1.339 238613.891 1972 .948 404832.278 1.342 232228.763 ZINC ABRASIVES 1967 1.015 70449.261 .940 36722.340 1968 1.000 75411.000 1.000 38465.000 1969 1.025 72746.341 1.054 43278.937 1970 1.060 82906.604 1.099 41653.321 1971 1.056 73997.159 1.096 34893.248 1972 1.292 97070.433 1.094 41335.466 - 157 - TABLE A. XIII (CONTINUED) CHEMICALS ELECTRICITY 1967 1.069 112638.915 1.014 16062. 130 1968 1.000 132764.000 1.000 14321. 000 1969 .988 154488.866 1. 127 16412. 600 1970 .968 191172.521 1,716 20043. 124 1971 1.032 174042.636 2.014 23976. 167 1972 1,011 189661.721 1.762 38562. 997 EES. SECTION 4 FARM MACHINERY 1967 .882 1035171.202 .970 200307. 216 1968 1.000 1129517,00 0 1.000 168549. 000 1969 .983 1214079.349 1.034 174564. 797 1970 .955 1470531.937 1.064 154498. 120 1971 .958 1476399.791 1. 103 158615. 594 1972 1.028 1656538.911 1. 148 189059. 233 MACHINERY AUTOMOBILES 1967 .973 250316.547 .979 1776466. 803 1968 1.000 295347.000 1.000 2690832. 000 1969 1.029 358531.584 1,012 3519307. 312 1970 1.068 386232.210 1.033 3387039. 690 1971 1 .097 389439.380 1.052 3964847. 909 1972 1.115 405018.834 1,071 4405584. 500 CONS. GOODS RUBBER 1967 .972 55934.156 * 993 16347. 432 1968 1.000 73557.000 1. 000 11800. 000 1969 1,030 96584.466 1. 041 9787. 704 1970 1.058 101853.497 1. 045 19033. 493 1971 1,079 106757.183 1. 019 17377. 821 1972 1.107 110512.195 1. 012 23922. 925 RES. SECTION 5 1967 .993 874436.052 1968 1.000 1056379.000 1969 1.025 112 9329.756 1970 1.056 1276141.098 1971 1.079 1192852.641 1972 1.098 1459565.574 - 158 - TABLE A.XIV IHPOBT D0TIES, DISAGGBEGATED SEBIES, 1948-1972 1. SUBPERIOD 1948-1960 BANANAS CITRUS D FBOTTS NOTS 1948 2277000 94000 1011000 371000 1949 2079000 126000 956000 539000 1950 1831000 152000 675000 556000 1951 1612000 165000 959000 387000 1952 1733000 216000 882000 386000 1953 1794000 217000 854000 388000 1954 1650000 18000 774000 349000 1955 1574000 30000 776000 321000 1956 1728000 9000 739000 366000 1957 1590000 7000 822000 387000 1958 1617000 9000 594 000 384000 1959 1694000 10000 491000 373000 1960 1893000 7000 675000 409000 VEGETABLES SOGAH COCOA COFFEE 1948 646000 5392000 495000 1619000 1949 1716000 5391000 540000 1932000 1950 2410000 4309000 562000 1462000 1951 2926000 4062000 305000 1578000 1952 3711000 7913000 272000 1728000 1953 3796000 6597000 296000 1889000 1954 4524000 5884000 269000 1489000 1955 4389000 6348000 229000 1717000 1956 4770000 6479000 234000 1697000 1957 4899000 6 071000 284000 1719000 1958 5 241000 8898000 221000 1816000 1959 5439000 6550000 247000 1953000 1960 5365000 5330000 264000 1805000 TEA WHISKY CHEM.IND.2 AG.+AN.2 1948 8000 6256000 0 18962000 1949 35000 7395000 1000 20257000 1950 18000 5138000 1000 20261000 1951 18000 7683000 1000 26036000 1952 19000 11713000 1000 23904000 1953 18000 11123000 2000 30303000 1954 30000 8722000 3000 30341000 1955 22000 9643000 0 34251000 1956 24000 8803000 1000 37848000 1957 31000 7771000 1000 41478000 1958 28000 12740000 2000 42985000 1959 47000 12567000 2000 45184000 1960 38000 12401000 0 44238000 - 159 - TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED) N.METAL.2 CHEM.2 MISC.2 SOYABEANS 1948 0 50000 20000 0 1949 0 53000 21000 0 1950 0 53000 21000 0 1951 0 68000 27000 0 1952 0 63000 25000 0 1953 0 80000 32000 0 1954 0 80000 32000 0 1955 0 90000 36000 0 1956 0 99000 40000 0 1957 0 109000 44000 0 1958 0 113000 45000 0 1959 0 119000 47000 0 1960 0 116000 46000 0 FOES COTTON R. WOOL S. WOOL T. 1948 0 0 90000 46000 1949 0 0 92000 51000 1950 0 0 148000 33000 1951 0 0 19000 53000 1952 0 0 4000 11000 1953 0 0 1000 43000 1954 0 0 0 28000 1955 0 0 0 3000 1956 0 0 0 1000 1957 0 0 0 1000 1958 o 0 0 0 1959 0 0 0 3000 1960 0 0 0 0 SISAL SYNTH.3 PAPERBD.3 IRON 0 . 1948 0 31000 0 0 1949 0 67000 0 0 1950 0 164000 0 0 1951 0 684000 0 0 1952 0 213000 0 0 1953 0 273000 0 0 1954 0 181000 0 0 1955 0 350000 0 0 1956 0 463000 0 0 1957 0 677000 0 0 1958 0 306000 0 0 1959 0 453000 0 0 1960 0 583000 1000 0 - 160 - TABLE A.XIV {CONTINUED) COAL ANTH. COAL BIT. PETROLEUM RUBBER 3 1948 60000 12591000 0 48000 1949 8000 8718000 0 45000 1950 3000 8477000 0 96000 1951 1000 8982000 0 102000 1952 0 7884000 0 54000 1953 1000 7298000 0 49000 1954 2000 5846000 0 90000 1955 8000 5768000 o 150000 1956 16000 7083000 0 161000 1957 3000 5840000 0 102000 1958 2000 4166000 0 86000 1959 38000 3624000 0 109000 1960 0 3575000 0 65000 AG.+AN.3 TEXTILES 3 WOOD 3 IRON 3 1948 816000 20000 0 0 1949 872000 21000 0 0 1950 872000 21000 0 0 1951 1121000 27000 0 0 1952 1029000 25000 0 0 1953 1304000 32000 0 0 1954 1306000 32000 0 0 1955 1474000 36000 0 0 1956 1629000 40000 0 0 1957 1785000 44000 0 0 1958 1850000 45000 0 0 1959 1945000 47000 0 0 1960 1904000 46000 0 0 N-FEfifl. 3 N.METAL.3 CHEM.3 MISC.3 1948 0 358000 0 0 1949 0 383000 0 0 1950 0 383000 0 0 1951 0 492000 0 0 1952 0 452000 0 0 1953 o 573000 0 0 1954 0 573000 0 0 ,1955 0 647000 0 0 ,1956 0 715000 0 0 1957 0 784000 0 0 1958 0 812000 0 0 1959 0 854000 0 0 1960 0 836000 0 0 V O v O v O v Q v O v O V O v O v O v O V O v O V O o% un U> CO Ul mi NJ © 00 CO >1 O CO --4 —» .45 o VO 4s Ul _* Ul ut NJ Ui Cn cn —» Ul - J VO . O NJ CO 00 4» VO o o p o o p O o © o © © © o b b p p o P b o © © o o b p o © o o © o © © © o mi mi «4 CO cn cn Ul 4S 4t ut NJ VO CO mi VO CO CO cn 00 UJ -* >4 ut cn 00 -4 ut P NJ vO CO cn Ut vO © Ut 4» © © P © © o © o © o © © O o b © © © o © © b p © © © o © o © © o o © © o © © o 4* Ul Ut Ut 43 Ut ut 4= 4S Ut ut U) Ul CO mi _* 00 Ut Ul NJ 4? NJ -4 Ul 4= Ul CO VO CO -4 mi cn Ch NJ - 4 4» Ul Ul -* Ut Ul NJ Ut Ul Ul -* NJ NJ © o o o o O o © © o o o © O o © o © o o © © © o © O © O © b © o © o o © © O © P Ul Ul JIS 45? NJ NJ CO Ul CO cn NJ 00 -4 vO CO -4 CO © o © © © o o o © o o © o o o o © © © o © © o © O o © © o o © o © o © o o o © vO v O v O v O v o v O v O v O v O v O v O v O v O cn u i u t u i u t u t u t u t C n u t u t 4 a « : © V O C O > O C n U t 4 = U J N J - » O v O C O 10 X . o poocooo -4«gcnujNjNjNj sS HI 03 u> 4 S O O U t O - » 4 t C h - g U t © ~ . to mi v o K J c n - * c n - t ^ j u t u t - 4 4 s © CO H • 4» - » c j \ u t c n c o u t c o O - » u t u i « o w a © P O P O © O © O P P O © HI « O O P O O O O P O ' 0 . 0 0 0 • w o o o o o o o o o o o o o 4» m 9" vO v O C O ^ J - « J U t 4 3 U 1 U > U J N J N J N J •a . U i U ) 0 0 - 4 O 4 S C h - 4 s 0 VO Ut 4= O m Q 00 _ » _ » a o t s j u i - 4 4 = ' C D c n 4 s r u 4 = PO CO N J ^ 4 0 u > N J U I U ) ^ U t U 1 U 1 ~ J a > © o o o o o o o o o o © © a © o o o © © o o o © o © © § w © o o o o o o o o o o o o SO cn t m m m ^ ^ mJi mi o P* vO < O - » 4 = Q 0 O - 4 © ~ » 4 S - ^ 0 0 - « 4 w 4S 4 S 4 » v O N J 0 0 v O 4 s u i C h U ) U 1 C n t~t o 4» c n N J N J c o u t O N O C h c n - » © u i • t* 00 coo©ut4»v04SNJU>-»cncn CS H o o o o o o o o o o o o o M SS o © © o o p o o p o o © © fc* M o o o o o o o o o o o o o » HI HI H H S3 r* mi H o 03 tS) o • o o o o o o o o o o o © © • H vO vO VO vO vO vO vO vO vO vO vO VO S* Ch Ul Ut Ul Ut ut ut ui Ul Ut Ul 4= 4= ca O VO CO - 4 cn Ut 4» U» NJ —» p vO CO t* - rt < • w ix Q H NJ mi mi mi mi - 4 mi NJ mi U) NJ NJ W © vO VO SO CO *4 vO © VO mi NJ 4S NJ HI - 4 O 00 ch •>! 00 4~ U> Ut NJ Ut CO -* • . CO o cn Ul Ch 4» © Ul 00 Ch mi o NJ • o n p © o © p © © P © © o o O H o © p © © b © © © b © o © P as p o © p b o.p P © b © © © IA HI a o p o w Ut U l ~ * —» mi VO CO P vO VO CO U l LO Hi • © NJ VO VO Ut 4̂ NJ ~ * •4 NJ NJ U) -4 HI 1 4? *4 ui oo cn co ut cn NJ Ch NJ u> o t O 1—1 co vo - * cn u> ut ui cn CO -4 © NJ mi as OS © o © © © P © © © b © o © M p © o o © © © © o o O o o © © © p p o © © © © © o o 1 C3 _» _i NJ NJ Ht U t N J N J N J U I U I C n © - 4 - » N J U 1 v O W © © o © p © © o o o o o © 0 © P O © 0 © 0 © © © 0 © H © © © o © o © o o b b © o • 4 = 4 » U > 4 ? 4 S U J U ! 4 = ' U J N J 0 0 4 = U t 4 = U » C n 4 S - 0 O N J 0 O 4 S U 1 G C O v O U l v O N J 4 = O N J U l © P O O O O O O © © o a o o o o o o o o o o o o as o ut 4= UJ 4= 4= w 4? O CO CO vO cn CO vO Ul © HI - 4 vO © Ut © m © © © © o P O o o o o o © o o © VO vO vO vO VO vO vO SO vO vO vO VO vO as ui Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul Ul c 43 O vO 00 -J Ch Ul P Ul to - J t o VO CO SB * •OB CO 00 CO -4 >4 Ch Ul Ul J P P UJ Ui UJ W to P o -J p u> Ch Ch 4= 00 «4 -J Ul r9 •Cf to _k CO Ul CO Ul p Ul Ul >4 -4 Ul Ss» P o b o Ul Ul P Ul to Ch Ul 4= o o p p o P p p o o p p tr* b o o o p p P p o o p o • . o o © p p p P p o p p o o -jp Ul Ul 4= UJ -Jk P p CO CO Ch Ch OS to Ch CO UJ o CO JP P to vO VO VO Ul n CO o P to Ul 00 Ch Ul vO vO vO Ul as O "J -J UJ -Jk o •4 >4 Ul CO <4 p w o o o o p p o o © o p o P o o o o o p p p o o p o p • o o p p p p p o p p o o p •JP at H (A 4= P P P UJ Ul u> Ul to to to to -a n P Ul to -Jk P p p Ui Ch o p CO w _k -Jk vO P -1 to Ui to CO p to to vO tr* o o p o p o p o p o p p O tr* o o p o p o o o p o p p o •. o o p o o p p o p p o p o 4= 53 as - J I Ui CO VO 00 o CO 00 00 CO Ch Ch Ul Ul J P •o vO vO 10 UJ -J Ul JP p Ch —» Ch 4= -4 tr* Ch co -Jk 00 UJ Ul Ul p Ul •Jk •4 Ch Ul *o o o p p o p o o o o p p p o o o o p o o o p p p p p so o o o © o p p p p p o p o to VO vO vO vo Ul Ul p JS - * O VO CO O - 4 - 4 -J _k CO CO Ul to 00 - 4 - 4 oo ̂  vo 01 p p p p P o p P O O O P CO J P J P UJ - 4 Cn Ul OS tO « 4 - 4 4= P o o o O O P P p o P o -»to VO P VO CO Ch Ul Ul Ui p -mm 00 CO 00 Ch O O J P CO to p J P Ch Ul VO VO p J P os co to b —k - 4 Ul -Jk OS vO vO to as os vo P co -Jk p ->4 Ch Ul 00 OS -Jk O O P P o p o p o p p o p O P O P P p o o o o p p p p © o p o © o p p p o p o -» W - I - i o VO 00 00 Ch Ch Ui cn cn CD O P O -k —Jk -Jk o UJ VO J p P p ro O co CD - k Ul p VO CO Ul -Jk -Jk Ch O UJ Ul UJ UJ to - 4 - 4 • 4 - 4 4= to - 4 P P P o o p o o p o o o p P O O P P p o p o p o o p O P P O P o o p o o p o o «OV0vOv0vOvOv0vOvO osuicncnuiuiuicncn O v 0 0 0 < 4 0 S U l P U ) t O >4 >J OS Ch •p Ul -Jk -Jk VO to Ul -4 —Jk -4 CO 00 - 4 to o 1̂ to CO to to p 00 VO >4 OS o J P to Ui to -4 CO P p p p p p p p p o p o o p p © p © o p p o p o o p p UJCOCOtOtOtOtOtO-k - k t O O v O - 4 P - k - k - - 4 COPvOCOtOChCO-4-k -4VO-JkUJtOUitOvOvO p o p p o p p p o P P O Q O O O O O P O P P P P P P O t-3 VO VO vO vb VO vO VO vO vO vO vo vo vo w Ch Ul cn cn Ul cn tn tn cn cn cn P P to o vO CO - 4 OS cn P Ul tO -Jk © VO CD t> w 9* • w X H Hi to to -Jk to to to to -Jt -jk to -jk —» —* *tJ < H -Jt -jk VO O p -jt to vo os p •O P P s> fr- p P CO OS Ch CO p -»to P p p p H w p - 4 p OS _k -Jk p 00 VO —k ui cn cn 53 n CO © P o p p p p P O P P O P Hi o p O p p o p o © P P P O P SB . p P p p p p p p p p p p p P Hi H 25 a H 58 o a CO to Ul p p p p CO to P Ul CO Ui • i 33 Ch cn Ch Ui • 4 Os -Jk -Jk OS - 4 oo cn cn o O vO CO Ul p - 4 Ul - 4 Ui to CO 00 P P ta Ch O cn Ul - 4 CO P to • 4 Oh vo P tO - 4 -k M to a o © P p o o P P P O p p o o p O p o p P p p p P P O • 1 P o o P o p o P P P O o o o • P SO p p Ui Ul Ul Ul to tO tO a H to CO to Ul cn to P cn ui ui 00 U J 00 CO —Jk cn « 4 to -O ~4 Ul VO -J> Ui OS - 4 vO cd o p cn —» CO VO to vO •4 OS o P cn - 4 w p p P o o o o P O O o o o 50 b p P p o p p O P P P O O p o o O © p o p O P o P O O P ss *» • to to to to to to Os - 4 as cn Ul p CO oo P cn to to -» • w vO cn ~k to p CO p P cn co co co cn + w P —k - 4 OS cn Ch oo cn os cn P Ul Ul w P p O o o o o o o o O O P as • o o o o p o o O P o P o o • p p o o p p p p <0 CD P O O • P - 163 - TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED) PAPERED.5 FARH MACH. MACHINERY AUTOMOBILE 1948 1054000 320000 26419000 5934000 1949 6 24000 278000 24257000 5405000 1950 1612000 163000 25643000 18972000 19.51 2004000 212000 35079000 36362000 1952 1439000 229000 36045000 33152000 1953 1588000 260000 40620000 40575000 1954 3380000 293000 39065000 32801000 1955 3999000 296000 47185000 46783000 1956 4328000 330000 65101000 58489000 1957 3634000 385000 64627000 47714000 1958 3078000 507000 51348000 44307000 1959 3212000 431000 58240000 51750000 1960 3365000 391000 58585000 54181000 ELECTRIC CHINA PAINT 5 IND. CHEM. 5 1948 11732000 461000 14000 15000 1949 13239000 574000 13000 13000 1950 14817000 533000 14000 23000 1951 21925000 592000 15000 36000 1952 25494000 499000 25000 56000 1953 34219000 479000 55000 108000 1954 36028000 501000 62000 86000 1955 39688000 596000 46000 120000 1956 45604000 596000 50000 84000 1957 43636000 676000 60000 68000 1958 38883000 659000 70000 81000 1959 46176000 587000 100000 96000 1960 40802000 6 09000 104000 122000 CONS.GOODS ROBBER 5 AG.+AN.5 TEXTILES 5 1948 3801000 767000 1254000 11148000 1949 5262000 558000 1340000 11909000 1950 13452000 648000 1340000 11912000 1951 13142000 1229000 1722000 15307000 1952 29245000 2008000 1581000 14054000 1953 20761000 2013000 2004000 17816000 1954 17501000 1574000 2007000 17838000 1955 16834000 2550000 2265000 20137000 1956 38172000 3312000 2503000 22252000 1957 19758000 2849000 2743000 24386000 1958 20795000 3259000 2843000 25272000 1959 20897000 4431000 2989000 26565000 1960 18945000 4434000 2926000 26008000 - 164 - TABLE A.XI? (CONTINUED) HOOD 5 IRON 5 N.FERR.5 N.HETALL.5 1948 3504000 15030000 3464 000 2359000 1949 3743000 16056000 3700000 2520000 1950 3744000 16060000 3701000 2521000 1951 4811000 20638000 4756000 3239000 1952 4417000 18 948000 4367000 2974000 1953 5599000 24020000 5536000 3770000 1954 5606000 24050000 5543000 3775000 1955 6329000 27149000 6257000 4261000 1956 6994000 30001000 6914000 4709000 1957 7664000 32878000 7577000 5160000 1958 7943000 34072000 7852000 5348000 1959 8349000 35815000 8254000 5621000 1960 8174000 35065000 8081000 5504000 CHEH.5 HISCELL.5 1948 3683000 5216000 1949 3934000 5572000 1950 3935000 5573000 1951 5057000 7162000 1952 4643000 6575000 1953 5886000 8335000 1954 5893000 8346000 1955 6652000 9421000 1956 7351000 10411000 1957 8056000 11409000 1958 8349000 11824000 1959 8776000 12429000 1960 8592000 12168000 10 VO 10 10 vp vO .SO VO v O v 0 v 0 v 0 V 0 i 0 v 0 V 0 Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch ChChChCTvChChChCh -J Ch on 4= OJ tO -* O ^ehon4»ojto-*o « o o ro to to **' -k o o o o o .63 o o o o Ht © w o o o o o o o o «... p p o o o o o o cn w K 33 —k _» —k Ht ro 4» o KO ch >«j >«J on n -k OJ CO CJ Ch Ch O CO w 03 ->1 4» CO ch o to ch o K) IO —k —k H O O o o o b o o H o o o o o o © o o o o o o o o o W o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o w M n w o o t-3 to 9S Ch o to Ch 00 Ch Ch ~J o o o o o p o o o o as o o o o o o o o to o o o p o o o o rt o o o o o o o o to tx) > a X si mk —* • o VO Ch to on to + mi o o o o o o o f o o P O O o o o o o o o o o • o o o o o o o o to Hi V0 v 0 vO iO sO vO VO vO vO vO vO V 0 VO VO V 0 VO ChChchChChChChCh Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch CD O O M J i e U W - l O -o Ch on 4= 0J to mi O t* « •X H -k-»_»_k_*tO_k_k Ul 0J OJ 0J 0J 0J 0J 0J • <J > J C h C 0 V 0 V O O 0 0 0 0 o on Ch on o o -4 Ut mi v O — k O O v O C O I O O J O o ch 00 tn VO on -o Ch VO Ed to .-"» «4to>J . chcov0utun CO Ul on - J mi to 4» 4S a # O. O O O O O O O O *i o o o o o o o O M O O O O O O O O O o o b o o o o O HI w SS P P O P O O O O M o o o o o o o o 171 a t-3 co- H re SS bd a to w H p o on on 4= 4» JP 4= 4= 4S t p on -0 CO 4= -4 4= 43 Ch •< - j ut on ut 00 Ch CO CO O 1̂ CO on W mi U l O J - k U l O J U I - k O O CO vO OJ 4= Ch CO -4 mi a vO o o o o o o o o t-3 o o o O o o O o w Ch o o o o o o o o w o o o O o o o o t-3 o o o o o o o o o p. ,o o o o o o o o • 1 vO Ch CO H rO mi mi mk mm U> *** mi as Ch %4 on Ch on un on U l C h 4 = C h O O h J 0 3 - k CO VO 0J OJ CO on on 00 oj-*onon4=~»-*vo • 00 VO mi OJ 00 o to OJ m OO4»V00J45 :ChCh o 0J 0J vO o on CO 0J P a O O O O O O O O o o o p o o o o o CJ O O O O O O O O ta o o o p o o o p 9» O O O O O O O o S3 o o o o o o o o vo to o K s» to ro OJ to to to to ro w -4 o ~4 vO 00 VO 00 Ch o w -J VO Ut to -4 OJ 4? o tt» o o p o o O b o n a o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 01 o o o o o o o o So - 166 - TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED) COAL :ANT. COAL BIT. PETROLEUM RUBBER 1960 0 3162000 0 71000 1961 0 2999000 0 47000 1962 0 2970000 0 37000 1963 0 3295000 0 17000 1964 0 4187000 0 112000 1965 0 4811000 0 135000 1966 1000 4644000 0 84000 1967 113000 4503000 0 69000 ?EGET.OILS COTTON F. JUTE F. WORSTEDS 1960 1136000 15216000 73000 4349000 1961 1518000 15371000 93000 5113000 1962 1377000 15530000 123000 5877000 1963 1351000 13847000 159000 4618000 1964 1490000 20185000 136000 5042000 1965 2103000 13813000 116000 5297000 1966 2402000 16455000 121000 4852000 1967 1331000 15336000 157000 4864000 PAPERBOARD ROLL.BILL TIN BLOCKS GLASS 1960 7745000 10253000 0 823000 1961 8349000 8512000 0 929000 1962 8760000 10376000 0 1712000 1963 8083000 9761000 0 1331000 1964 8712000 15243000 0 1346000 1965 9045000 20184000 1000 1355000 1966 9633000 13847000 0 1345000 1967 8841000 13262000 0 1267000 GASOLINE FERTILIZER IND.CHEM. FARM MACH. 1960 898000 96000 944000 269000 1961 623000 110000 1015000 271000 1962 516000 111000 1007000 372000 1963 857000 90000 950000 305000 1964 845000 99000 8643000 396000 1965 812000 83000 6225000 364000 1966 898000 86000 7009000 390000 1967 1417000 99000 7684000 408000 V0 1 0 NO NO vO vO VO vO ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON - J ON cn P u> NJ - * 0 -J> O V 0 CO C O - J * 4 Ul Ol CO >4 ON NJ ON P * 4 ON - J - 4 - J P cn P vo Ui J P P CO - J - 4 C O vo cn - 4 O C O P p vo O 0 O O Q O 0 0 O 0 O O 0 O 0 © O 0 O O 0 © © 0 _» O VO C O - J ON ON ON ON K ) vO CO CO - 4 - 4 C O ON NJ C O 0 0 - 4 Ul ON NJ vO ON O -J. P p P Ul ON O O 0 O 0 © 0 O O O 0 O 0 © 0 O O O 0 O © O © © NJ NJ NJ -*. —* _» —» Ut -* O C O ON cn P 0 cn -4 cn ON cn —1 cn VO vO P C O vo C O NJ vo 0 0 0 P VO KJ - 4 CO vo O - J - 4 cn ON p 0 -j> 0 0 O 0 © 0 0 0 0 0 O 0 O 0 0 0 O 0 O © © © 0 0 4 » P CO Ul 0 0 Ul NJ NJ ON C U CO - 4 p >4 VO VO - 4 O cn Ul vO ON CO ON O -» U> >4 tO VO NJ O cn u i cn VO ON NJ ON ON cn ON ON - 4 ON VO © NJ 0 0 O O O O O O 0 0 O O O O O O 0 0 O O O O O © HI SO vO vO vO vO vO V 0 vO > ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON CO * 4 ON tn p Ui N J -Jt O tr* M tr* • CO _4 _ l — I 3 • X w © 0 0 - 4 ON ON Ul cn S* H 0 jp ON Ul 0 0 P C O _» — i o HI - i m p N J to N J 0 P rc H N J ON ON Ul vO Ul ON C O H O cn - 4 ON ON - 4 VO © U J a o a* O O O © O O 0 0 w 0 © © O © © © © © w SB! N J O O © © © O 0 © HI H ' ss a w W a P w Ul Ul P - 4 C O ON Ul cn HI 0 Ui Ui 0 C D —» VO 0 ON O 1-9 CO vo C O cn O VO —k 3 M - 4 CO - » ON - 4 O p - J O O P N J C O C O ON vO p C O CO as O O O O . © 0 © 0 H O O O O O 0 0 © tr* C O O O O © O 0 0 0 W CQ rt - 4 P p P P Ul U J Ui w O 0 0 cn -» C O Ul N J C O ON fr HI ON vo cn N J 0 vO ON ON rt H CO Ul vO O cn N J Ui _ l n O 1 0 CO ' P cn P - 4 cn ON HI S 3 0 © © © 0 © © 0 Ed O O O 0 0 O 0 © M P p o o © © © 0 © O tr* W H rt < J 0 —* rt HI —* ON cn 0 ON P P p H O ON VO Ul O C O cn C O s* O CO CO Ul P C O C O ON p S 3 S 3 O O O 0 0 © 0 0 H O O O © 0 0 © 0 3 cn O O O 0 0 © 0 0 • - 168 - TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD 1968-1972 F.FRUITS F.VEGET. SUGAR COCOA 1967 3568000 5588000 7883000 277000 1968 3704000 5802000 6862000 11000 1969 4156000 5684000 8354000 0 1970 3740000 5951000 9615000 0 1971 3784000 6131000 8055000 0 1972 3945000 6501000 6745000 0 COFFEE TEA IND.CORN MEAT 1967 1797000 3000 2330000 1354000 1968 26000 0 2466000 1806000 1969 0 0 2091000 4543000 1970 0 0 1457000 • 4768000 1971 0 0 1369000 4866000 1972 0 0 1322000 5116000 SOYABEANS HIDES COTTON R. WOOL R. 1967 0 2000 0 0 1968 0 0 0 0 1969 0 1000 0 7000 1970 0 0 0 0 1971 0 10000 0 0 1972 0 20000 0 1000 , WOOL TOPS IRON ORE BAUX.+AL. COPPER ORE 1967 2000 6000 19000 47000 1968 6000 6000 12000 6000 1969 0 2000 13000 0 1970 2000 5000 5000 1000 1971 52000 22000 8000 1000 1972 104000 40000 12000 2000 COAL BIT. PETROLEUM RUBBER COTTON F. 1967 4503000 0 69000 15336000 1968 3567000 0 24000 10989000 1969 796000 0 23000 11132000 1970 0 0 25000 9536000 1971 0 346000 36000 12689000 1972 0 710000 49000 16721000 - 169 - TABLE A.XIV (CONTINUED) JUTE F. WORSTEDS COATED F. VENEERS 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 157000 100000 99000 75000 77000 84000 4864000 5377000 5428000 4779000 4090000 3684000 6447000 7927000 9190000 9953000 11207000 13236000 4904000 5286000 6630000 4250000 6716000 9647000 ROLL. HILL: TIN BLOCKS GASOLINE HEAVY FOEL 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 13262000 11865000 19222000 16095000 18849000 22906000 0 0 17000 0 5000 10000 1417000 1430000 2142000 1781000 1320000 951000 4272000 3707000 3816000 3961000 1985000 146000 IND.CHE8. INOR.CHEfi. ORG.CHEM. FARM MACH. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 7684000 7816000 9195000 9155000 10278000 12109000 5702000 5736000 6210000 5939000 6 179000 6848000 7615000 8087000 9275000 9208000 9883000 11241000 408000 275000 540000 614000 585000 657000 DRILLING AUTOMOBILE ELECTRICAL LIVE ANIM. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 10381000 8126000 11823000 12091000 15092000 20692000 33774000 41134000 49530000 49456000 65733000 93339000 78689000 72274000 83934000 79004000 92670000 1223050 00 1108000 670000 551000 1094000 1451000 1467000 SECTION 2 SECTION 3 SECTION 4 SECTION 5 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 103799000 95309000 115742000 112862000 119738000 130319000 10226000 9649000 5043000 3693000 5156000 6875000 230980000 230575000 265027000 251860000 282283000 3 32223000 467055000 457530000 522842000 521551000 590218000 760573000 - 170 - TABLE A.X? RE-EXPORTS, DISAGGREGATED SERIES, 1948-1972 1, SUBPERIOD 1948-1960 WHEAT BARLEY WHISKY WHEAT FL 1948 0 0 2000 6000 1949 0 0 3000 0 1950 0 0 6000 0 1951 0 0 24000 0 1952 0 0 134000 0 1953 0 0 7000 0 1954 0 0 4000 0 1955 0 0 12000 0 1956 0 0 22000 0 1957 1000 0 7000 0 1958 0 0 20000 0 1959 0 0 49000 0 1960 0 0 0 0 OATS TOBACCO BEEF CATTLE S 1948 0 2000 0 0 1949 0 0 0 0 1950 29000 0 0 0 1951 43000 58000 10000 0 1952 0 3000 0 0 1953 0 0 0 0 1954 0 0 7000 0 1955 7000 0 63000 0 1956 1000 0 0 0 1957 0 2000 5000 0 1958 0 2000 35000 0 1959 0 9000 35000 1000 1960 0 9000 58000 0 CATTLE D MILK EGGS FISH 2 1948 16000 0 0 250000 1949 10000 0 0 70000 1950 5000 0 0 15000 1951 40000 0 7000 23000 1952 4000 2000 0 529000 1953 27000 0 0 24000 1954 42000 0 5000 77000 1955 103000 0 1000 175000 1956 20000 12000 5000 171000 1957 121000 0 0 367000 1958 50000 0 0 202000 1959 24000 6000 0 161000 1960 65000 0 4000 348000 - 171 - TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) AG.+AN.2 CHEM.2 MISCELL.2 FISH 3 1948 1669000 19000 0 0 1949 1347000 15000 0 0 1950 1920000 14000 0 0 1951 1949000 24000 0 0 1952 3835000 21000 0 0 1953 2416000 20000 0 0 1954 2698000 20000 0 0 1955 4190000 22000 0 0 1956 3310000 25000 0 0 1957 2729000 31000 0 0 1958 2797000 56000 0 0 1959 3214000 47000 0 0 1960 3391:000 66000 0 0 . LEATHER 3 FURS HIDES PULPHOOD 1948 0 587000 22000 0 1949 0 539000 0 0 1950 0 734000 0 0 1951 2000 887000 0 0 1952 1000 1243000 0 0 1953 5000 712000 15000 0 1954 1000 973000 13000 0 1955 1000 690000 20000 0 1956 0 816000 0 23000 1957 0 837000 0 0 1958 0 667000 21000 0 1959 0 685000 0 721000 1960 5000 515000 41000 1103000 IRON ORE COPPER 3 LEAD 3 ALUMINUM 3 1948 0 0 0 0 194 9 0 0 0 0 1950 0 0 0 0 1951 0 0 0 0 1952 0 0 0 0 1953 0 0 0 0 1954 0 0 0 0 1955 0 0 0 0 1956 0 151000 0 7000 1957 0 87000 0 4000 1958 10000 4000 0 1000 1959 24000 16000 0 0 1960 0 2000 0 0 - 172 - TABLE ft.XV (CONTINUED) NICKEL 3 ZINC 3 SILVER 3 PLATINUM 1948 0 0 0 7000 1949 0 0 0 34000 1950 / 0 0 0 0 1951 0 0 0 121000 1952 0 16000 0 42000 1953 0 0 0 37000 1954 0 7000 0 98000 1955 0 10000 0 18000 1956 0 0 0 7000 1957 0 0 0 40000 1958 0 31000 0 4894000 1959 0 0 0 8677000 1960 0 0 0 8453000 ASBESTOS COAL AG.+AN.3 TEXTILES 3 1948 1000 97000 107000 1600000 1949 0 29000 86000 2093000 1950 0 152000 123000 2211000 1951 17000 17000 125000 4583000 1952 10000 16000 245000 2721000 1953 26000 11000 154000 2074000 1954 46000 17000 173000 2146000 1955 0 9000 268000 1512000 1956 0 14000 212000 1795000 1957 0 27000 175000 1447000 1958 0 10000 179000 1647000 1959 4000 109000 206000 1567000 1960 6000 5000 217000 3447000 HOOD 3 IRON 3 N.FEHR.3 N.METALL.3 1948 26000 6000 125000 2990000 1949 20000 6000 115000 2921000 1950 20000 8000 238000 3968000 1951 25000 7000 224000 3565000 1952 21000 12000 302000 4508000 1953 28000 15000 350000 5320000 1954 26000 20000 366000 5198000 1955 30000 21000 419000 6518000 1956 37000 26000 419000 5792000 1957 41000 45000 501000 9074000 1958 48000 54000 759000 5455000 1959 52000 65000 628000 5020000 1960 67000 63000 918000 4247000 TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) - 173 - MISCELL.3 FISH 4 LEATHER 4 NEWSPRINT 1948 6000 7000 32000 0 1949 7000 0 57000 0 1950 8000 0 93000 0 1951 6000 2000 161000 0 1952 10000 2000 32000 0 1953 12000 4000 164000 0 1954 19000 0 124000 0 1955 14000 0 128000 0 1956 15000 13000 136000 0 1957 14000 25000 150000 0 1958 17000 39000 172000 0 1959 17000 13000 227000 0 1960 17000 15000 231000 0 WOOD PULP PLANKS SHINGLES PLYWOOD 194 8 0 73000 0 3000 1949 2000 18000 0 0 1950 6000 61000 0 1000 1951 43000 18000 0 1000 1952 1000 20000 0 0 1953 100000 14000 0 1000 1954 2000 14000 0 0 1955 0 57000 0 1000 1956 0 96000 0 10000 1957 2000 95000 1000 8000 1958 0 73000 0 9000 1959 0 98000 0 40000 1960 0 88000 0 7000 PIG IRON COPPER 4 LEAD 4 ALUMINUM 4 1948 0 0 0 165000 1949 0 1000 0 6000 1950 0 0 20000 35000 1951 39000 4000 4 83000 76000 1952 0 0 0 7000 1953 0 0 0 46000 1954 0 29000 3000 92000 1955 96000 83000 0 30000 1956 0 63000 0 42000 1957 0 126000 0 27000 1958 0 10000 0 53000 1959 0 62000 0 33000 1960 0 3000 0 126000 TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) - 174 - NICKEL 4 ZINC 4 SILVER 4 ABRASIVES 194 8 0 1000 285000 4000 1949 2000 1000 0 1000 1950 10000 0 0 1000 1951 57000 1000 602000 12000 1952 0 2000 0 3000 1953 0 1000 0 7000 1954 0 0 0 7000 1955 0 0 0 4000 1956 0 0 ; 0 4000 1957 0 0 0 9000 1958 0 0 5000 6000 1959 0 0 0 13000 1960 0 0 0 1000 FERTILIZER AG. + AN. 4 TEXTILES 4 WOOD 4 1948 0 356000 1159000 214000 1949 48000 288000 1516000 168000 1950 0 410000 1601000 161000 1951 9000 416000 3319000 209000 1952 1000 819000 1970000 175000 1953 34000 516000 1502000 233000 1954 208000 576000 1554000 210000 1955 207000 895000 1095000 246000 1956 67000 707000 1300000 305000 1957 175000 583000 1048000 337000 1958 139000 597000 1193000 396000 1959 316000 686000 1135000 430000 1960 63000 724000 2496000 551000 IRON 4 N.FERR.4 N.METALL.4 CHEM.4 1948 278000 415000 1251000 1514000 1949 264000 380000 1222000 1170000 1950 360000 790000 1660000 1100000 1951 328000 743000 1491000 1893000 1952 513000 999000 1886000 1605000 1953 680000 1161000 2226000 1537000 1954 893000 1215000 2175000 1557000 1955 934000 1388000 2727000 1696000 1956 1160000 1389000 2423000 1947000 1957 1991000 1660000 3796000 2437000 1958 2368000 2516000 2282000 4377000 1959 2854000 2083000 2100000 3660000 1960 2773000 3042000 1777000 5151000 - 175 - TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) MISCELL.4 EARS MACH. MACHINERY AUTOMOBILE 1948 0 440000 7123000 2295000 1949 0 721000 3514000 1710000 1950 0 952000 5009000 2492000 1951 0 1147000 6865000 6042000 1952 0 1481000 7201000 5619000 1953 0 945000 8556000 3316000 1954 0 2053000 9167000 3490000 1955 0 1417000 11451000 4562000 1956 0 1274000 12104000 3569000 1957 0 1697000 16853000 3843000 1958 0 1379000 15905000 2905000 1959 0 1269000 20492000 3477000 1960 0 2352000 22580000 4257000 • AG.+AN.5 TEXTILES 5 WOOD 5 IRON 5 1948 350000 166000 570000 3211000 1949 283000 217000 447000 3047000 1950 403000 229000 428000 4149000 1951 409000 475000 555000 3787000 1952 804000 282000 466000 5919000 1953 507000 215000 620000 7849000 1954 566000 222000 558000 10304000 1955 879000 157000 655000 10779000 1956 694000 186000 811000 13384000 1957 572000 150000 897000 22976000 1958 587000 171000 1054000 27326000 1959 674000 162000 1143000 32935000 1960 711000 357000 1465000 31999000 N.FERR.5 N.BETALL.5 CHEM.5 MISCELL.5 1948 1176000 189000 134000 4577000 1949 1078000 184000 104000 4748000 1950 2241000 250000 97000 5953000 1951 2109000 225000 168000 4544000 1952 2835000 285000 142000 7026000 1953 3293000 336000 136000 8637000 1954 3446000 328000 138000 13375000 1955 3938000 411000 150000 9705000 1956 3942000 366000 172000 10805000 1957 4709000 573000 216000 10241000 1958 7139000 344000 388000 12353000 1959 5910000 317000 324000 12406000 1960 8630000 268000 4560 00 12450000 vO VO VO VO vO vO vO VO - VO vO vO vO vO vO V0 Ch OS OS Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch en Ch Ch Ch Ch ON Os Ul 43 OJ NJ —» © Ch on 43 OJ NJ - 4 © Os 43 33 ch NJ on —» - 4 NJ OJ _» Ch - a M on OJ 00 00 © M o o O O O o o o © © o o a o o o o w o o o © o p o o o o o o " © o p o to " o © o © o o © o CO no a 43 43 43 Ch vO vO CO —» (H on NJ 43 Ch NJ NJ 43 NJ NJ - 4 o vO -o Ch _» vO - 4 on 00 0 J 43 UJ on on OJ vO OJ « NJ NJ vO on - J o O O b o © o o o o O © •o o o © © © N o o o o o P P o o . O o o o o CD o o 10 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o © o SB H S3 o NJ —» o a CO OJ _* OJ —» ~k NJ cu NJ — i —» NJ 43 o NJ - 4 ON o o o o o o o o o p o w o o w o o o © © o o © to o o o o o o o o W o o o o o © o o w t) tr* —* UJ 43 43 43 s» CO © o • 4 VO Ul © on OJ O Os 43 ~* Ch - » t-3 —k on VO 00 —» Ul mA o - 4 - 4 o O OJ vO H OS av O —k —k NJ —k o b o O o o o SS o © © o o o © o a o o o o o o o a o o o o o © © o w o o o o o o o o S3 o o o o o © o © to HI vO vO VO vO VO VO VO vO v O v O v O v O v b v O v O v O 9» Ch Ch Ch Ch ON ch Ch ON O N C h C h C h O N C h C h C h Cd ^4 ON U l 43 OJ NJ —k © ^ 4 C h U 1 4 = 0 J N J - » O 1 w • X < _» NJ VO Oo -43 m • a -k 43 U l o ON vO N) ss o o o o o IX* P o © w to 38 b p o o HI P P o fB, a HI © © 0 o o o o © 00 o © o o o o o o HI- w H •N3 53 W a S O W H O O O HI O CO —* -4 OJ _* - CO s* vO -4 OJ -4 NJ © O N N) vO to- OJ so Ch O O © © o O ' © © Cs © f * © O C5 © o o © © © n © W 1 o O o © o © o o o © © © © O O P © Mi _* vO ON CO 43 0J NJ U l on S i NJ NJ U l -4 VO Ch Ch on © 33 on o CO NJ 43 ON vO 00 ca 43 H © © o O © o © © w © o CO o o o o O o o © rt o o vi o o © o O o © o * j o o o o o o o o K 33 SS w ON > vO HI NJ 00 vO 43 NJ CS O © o O o O H Tl O o © o o O t-t t-1 O O o o o o o o o o o o o o o o • - 177 - TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) ASBESTOS COAL LEATHER NEWSPRINT 1960 6000 5000 232000 0 1961 121000 3000 223000 2000 1962 35000 36000 229000 1000 1963 49000 2000 182000 0 1964 4000 27000 196000 0 1965 40000 47000 262000 0 1966 5000 57000 243000 0 1967 2000 55000 302000 0 WOOD PULP LUMBER SHINGLES PLYWOOD 1960 0 88000 0 7000 1961 40000 61000 0 28000 1962 3000 71000 0 35000 1963 0 82000 0 48000 1964 0 53000 0 29000 1965 10000 216000 0 93000 1966 27000 146000 0 33000 1967 10000 136000 0 57000 PIG IRON ROLL.MILL v COPPER ALUMINUM 1960 0 852000 3000 257000 1961 0 506000 4000 79000 1962 0 682000 17000 236000 1963 8000 611000 4000 154000 1964 0 465000 6000 406000 1965 0 943000 46000 393000 1966 0 504000 102000 745000 1967 0 685000 113000 1333000 NICKEL ZINC ABRASIVES FERTILIZER 1960 0 0 13000 63000 1961 23000 0 59000 33000 1962 7111000 0 81000 129000 1963 12491000 0 61000 8000 1964 17640000 0 70000 22000 1965 21473000 0 183000 30000 1966 15861000 0 201000 11000 1967 19095000 0 322000 5000 - 178 - TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) ELECTRICITY FARM MACH. MACHINERY AUTOMOBILE 1960 0 5514000 23941000 10825000 1961 0 7422000 24109000 6318000 1962 0 5097000 28294000 6732000 1963 0 6078000 29594000 8551000 1964 0 8868000 31934000 15469000 1965 0 8837000 40760000 19649000 1966 0 8185000 464 98000 25415000 1967 0 9610000 50266000 30972000 CONS.GOODS RUBBER LIVE ANIM. SECTION 2 1960 657000 441000 259000 3571000 1961 1291000 233000 78000 5194000 1962 820000 200000 187000 5815000 1963 754000 168000 189000 7715000 1964 706000 275000 73000 8432000 1965 725000 650000 116000 10496000 1966 1318000 388000 121000 10091000 1967 1869000 576000 864000 11380000 SECTION 3 SECTION 4 SECTION 5 1960 10773000 25950000 85067000 1961 8963000 21775000 99978000 1962 8926000 36019000 113568000 1963 9799000 43184000 114772000 1964 6333000 56872000 134604000 1965 8299000 57037000 160157000 1966 9208000 50207000 181480000 1967 7664000 56248000 216808000 - 179 - TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) 3. SUBPERIOD 1968-1972 WHEAT BARLEY WHISKY WHEAT FL. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 0 0 9000 0 0 954000 3000 0 0 0 0 0 0 7000 45000 62000 21000 39000 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOBACCO BEEF FISH CHEESE 1967 1968 1969 1971 ;. 1972 7000 75000 27000 47000 306000 168000 425000 322000 5042000 10979000 177000 908000 572000 614000 763000 1125000 2214000 3227000 281000 35000 212000 508000 310000 183000 FDRS HIDES PULPWOOD IRON ORE 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 816000 656000 699000 669000 1540000 4212000 0 0 59000 10,00 149000 30000 424000 185000 58000 0 1000 0 0 0 24000 0 0 0 NICKEL PLATINUM ASBESTOS PETROLEDM 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 106000 250000 959000 1469000 66000 50000 337000 151000 398000 12000 282000 2000 2000 79000 1000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 506000 NAT.GAS NEWSPRINT WOOD PULP LUMBER 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 0 3000 140000 0 10000 0 0 8000 151000 11000 136000 135000 37000 187000 166000 246000 - 180 - TABLE A.XV (CONTINUED) PIG IEON . ROLL,HILL COPPER ALUMINUM 1967 0 685000 113000 1333000 1968 0 632000 960000 2308000 1969 0 1260000 314000 974000 1970 117000 1651000 76000 1607000 1971 0 10831000 413000 1338000 1972 0 9047000 818000 1301000 NICKEL ZINC ABRASIVES CHEMICALS 1967 19095000 0 322000 2456000 1968 20587000 0 191000 1048000 1969 31321000 0 227000 1251000 1970 30934000 0 635000 6438000 1971 33183000 0 468000 25749000 1972 50836000 0 450000 9899000 ELECTRICITY FARM MACH. MACHINERY AUTOMOBILE 1967 0 9610000 50266000 31652000 1968 0 10670000 60867000 40153000 1969 0 11228000 75283000 51461000 1970 0 11493000 68730000 48088000 1971 0 12516000 64765000 45565000 1972 o 10584000 66761000 48761000 CONS,GOODS RUBBER LIVE ANIM. SECTION 2 1967 1869000 576000 864000 11380000 1968 1573000 977000 249000 11587000 1969 2965000 867000 235000 21430000 1970 3595000 1268000 435000 32071000 1971 3099000 1126000 419000 18643000 1972 4829000 1654000 194000 25851000 SECTION 3 SECTION 4 SECTION 5 1967 7664000 56248000 216808000 1968 7574000 60384000 268205000 1969 10403000 77793000 314252000 1970 9294000 79433000 294321000 1971 8046000 119512000 275518000 1972 9966000 129260000 307499000

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