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The relationship between site quality and population age structure : three case studies, suburban Vancouver Weston, Peter James 1968

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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SITE QUALITY AND POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE: THREE CASE STUDIES, SUBURBAN VANCOUVER by PETER JAMES WESTON B.A., McMaster U n i v e r s i t y , 1965 A THESIS SUBMITTED I N PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n t h e S c h o o l o f COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1968 In presenting t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Li b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r reference and study. I f u r t h e r agree that permission f o r extensive copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s represen-t a t i v e s . It i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n permission. School °f Community and Regional Planning The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date 30 April, 1968 ABSTRACT The staring point for this study was a consideration of the relationship between man and his urban environment. In the context of an industrial society, much larger populations live in the city than in the rural areas. The cities are growing rapidly and there is a tendency for urban regions to form as adjacent cities coalesce. The spatial distribu-tion of residential growth has favoured suburban areas: in this way, the typical suburban, single family dwelling has become an important constitu-ent of the city. Man creates much of his urban environment and, conversely, he i s affected by his urban environment. Since single family residential land uses are a major element, i t is important that their impact on man be assessed. This study presents an approach to the problem, and deter-mines certain demographic characteristics that reflect the impact of the suburbanization process. Initial investigations revealed the following points: The design and character of single family dwellings are oriented to serve married couples with dependent children. They are not well suited to other types of households, such as elderly couples or unmarried individuals. Thus, married couples with dependent children are over-represented in suburban populations. Individual suburbs are designed according to a limited price range on the market and have, as a result, a fairly homogeneous residential quality. Since the occupant's ability to pay for accommodation reflects his socio-economic class, i t might be expected that each suburb has a propensity to be occupied by one socio-economic class. Further, distinc-tive demographic performance has been observed in each socio-economic class: quantitative differentials in population age structure are the most convenient indicators of different demographic performances. There-fore, i t was hypo ike sized that there is an associated relationship between i i i residential quality (site quality herein) and population age structure in single family residential areas. Three sample areas in metropolitan Vancouver were selected. Cri-teria were set out and employed in selecting the samples to ensure that they represented the variables adequately. Accordingly, part of Census Tract 4-9 (Fraserview), Census Tract 39 (part of West .Point Grey) and part of Census Tract 131 (British Properties), are investigated herein. In order to validate the hypothesis i t was deemed necessary to (a) assess differences in site quality between the samples, (b) assess quantitative differences in population age structure between the samples, (c) assess the impact of zoning on the variables, and (d) correlate the variables. The methodological approach was to carry out a literature research for the variables to provide the context for a statistical investigation and define the variable characteristics amenable to statistical measures. A system of rating was designed and used for the site quality variable and a system of indices for the population age structure variable. Zoning was investigated by literature research only. Finally, the findings of the literature research were summarized and the variables were correlated by the Pearson product-moment correlation (r). The literature research indicated that man's relationship to his residential environment is very complex and i t is in flux. At the simplest level of ecology, man finds nourishment and shelter in his surrounding. However, his response is tempered by psychological needs, such as security and privacy, and sociological needs, for example, status. Urbanization has imposed fundamental changes on this relationship. In addition, the Industrial Revolution has irrevocably committed world nations to the city. Resulting strains and dysfunctional elements have generated a search for an optimal urban environment. "Suburbia," in metropolitan iv areas in particular, and "new towns" are two important urban forms that have evolved. Zoning by-laws were developed as public control over the private use of land, largely to protect suburban areas from invasion by noxious and conflicting uses. A major impact of the instrument has been to en-courage the development of extensive areas of residential uses. Modern industrial cities are growing to such great sizes that segregation of the places of work, commerce and residence is no longer functionally viable. In addition, social changes have occurred, giving the adult offspring financial and social independence from his parents. In the absence of suitable accommodation in the suburbs, the move "downtown" by this age group is effectively institutionalized. There is evidence that the rate of construction and the date of construction constitute an important exogenous variable to the relation-ship under study. A new suburban development is occupied predominantly by young married couples and their dependent children. When a suburb is constructed rapidly, a sharply bimodal population age structure results. On the other hand, slow development leads to a subdued bimodal population age structure because i t is occupied by several "cohorts" of married couples. The date of construction determines the location of the bimodal age groups on the population age structure continuum. This particular aspect deserves more attention than was possible in this study. Correlation of the variables by the Pearson product-moment correla-tive indicated that the hypothesis is valid (r = - .72). The level of significance is substantial and the relationship is inverse and linear. That i s , as the site quality rating increases, the age structure index (quantitative hetrogeneity) tends to decrease. The relationship is asso-ciative rather than causal; the values of both variables are determined v by the propensity for a suburb to be occupied predominantly by one socio-economic class. The component parts of the age structure index were correlated to the site quality rating. It was found that the sex ratio of the 20 to 2L, year age group has a very high level of significance (r = - 1.00). This correlative indicates a complete inverse linear relationship and suggests that this relationship might be employed for extrapolation and prediction. The relationships under study and the approach to i t relate to the planning process through the types of information gathered and techniques used. An individual's age i s a primary determinant of his behaviour; for example, from ages five to at least sixteen, he attends school. In aggre-gates of individuals, therefore, an over-representation i n an age group results i n disportionately high demand for age related f a c i l i t i e s . In addition, this demand w i l l be temporary, unless the individuals that out-grow the need for such f a c i l i t i e s are continuously replaced. This study demonstrates that over-representation i n certain age groups i s , i n fact, typical of suburbia. The degree of over-representation varies from sample to sample i n what might be a predictable manner. As metropolitan areas grow and diversify, this type of information w i l l provide a basis for more sensitive and precise decision making in the planning process. The techniques of research used i n this study indicate that certain qualitative aspects of the urban environment are amenable to measurement and s t a t i s t i c a l manipulation. The approach used was to develop a system to approximate an individual's response to his environment. This seems to be a key to dealing objectively and accurately with certain d i f f i c u l t aspects of quality i n planning research. v i TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i i ABSTRACT i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v i i LIST OF TABLES : ix LIST OF DIAGRAMS x LIST OF MAPS xi LIST OF PLATES x i i CHAPTER I SUBURBIA IN THE METROPOLITAN CONTEXT 1 The Context .. .. 1 The Purpose 3 The Method „„ 9 The Scope 16 II THE SITE QUALITY VARIABLE 23 Introduction 23 Aspects of Site Quality ... .. 24 Assessment of Site Quality: The Method .. .. 31 The Investigation 34 III THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE VARIABLE 45 Introduction .. .. 45 The Functions of Population Age Structure .. 46 Population Age Structure in the Sample Areas .. 52 IV ZONING: AN EXOGENOUS VARIABLE 60 Introduction 60 The Historical Antecedents 61 v i i CHAPTER PAGE Zoning By-Lavs in Practice 65 Zoning as It Affects the Site Quality and Population Age Structure Variables .. ... .. 68 V CORRELATION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE VARIABLES .. 76 Introduction .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 76 Summary of the Literature Research 77 Correlation and Interpretation of the Variables 80 Research Conclusions 88 VI THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES: ITS RELEVANCE TO THE COMMUNITY PLANNING PROCESS .. .. 93 Aspects of the Planning Process in the Metropolitan Context 93 Implecations of the Relationship Under Study .. 95 Applications for the Study's Methods of Research 98 Conclusion .. 99 APPENDIX 102 BIBLIOGRAPHY 109 v i i i LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1 Unit Cost and Bimodal Age Groups for Selected Census Tracts .. 9 2 Site Evaluation: Rating 4 . 2 3 Fertility Rates, British Columbia, 1 9 6 5 4 - 9 4. The Population Age Structure Variable: Indices of Quantitative Differential Between Samples .. .. 5 8 5 Allocation of Land Use by Zoning By-Law, City of Vancouver, 1 9 2 8 . . . . 6 9 6 Correlation of Site Quality Rating and Population Age Structure Index .. .. .. 8 4 . 7 Correlation of Site Quality Rating and Component Parts of Population Age Structure Index 8 6 8 Fraserview: Population by Age Group and Sex .. .. 1 0 3 9 West Point Grey: Population by Age Group and Sex .. 1 0 4 -1 0 British Properties: Population by Age Group and Sex 1 0 5 ix LIST CF DIAGRAMS DIAGRAM PAGE 1 Method of Analysis: Summary .. 17 2 Categories: Aspects of Site Quality 30 3 Site Evaluation: Method 38 4 Synopsis: Population Age Sructure Variable .. 5U 5 Fraserview: Population by Age Group and Sex .. .. 106 6 West Point Grey: Population by Age Group and Sex .. 107 7 British Properties: Population by Age Group and Sex 108 x LIST OF MAPS MAP PAGE 1 Sample Locations 12 2 Fraserview Sample: Part of Census Tract 4-9 13 3 West Point Grey Sample: Census Tract 39 .. .. H 4 B r i t i s h Propert ies Sample: Part of Census Tract 131 15 x i LIST OF PLATES PLATE PAGE I Photo Study: Census Tract 49, Fraserview .. .. 35 II Photo Study: Census Tract 39, West Point Grey .. 36 III Photo Study: Census Tract 131, British Properties 37 x i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The assistance and advice provided during the progress of this study by Dr. H. Peter Oberlander, Head of the School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, is gratefully acknowledged. The author is indebted to Dr. R. Collier, Assistant Professor of the same School, for his advice regarding statistical problems. Lastly, the author recognizes the assistance with typing, and invaluable encouragement from his wife, Diane. CHAPTER I SUBURBIA IN THE METROPOLITAN CONTEXT The Context The modern world is dominated by the process of urbanization. In the underdeveloped nations, rural to urban migration often exceeds the •j cities' ability to provide employment and residential accommodation. The cities of developed nations are experiencing high natural increase and immigration. Accordingly, they are facing endemic crises in provision of housing stock and employment. The larger north western European and North American cities have been subjected to the entire gamut of experience in the urbanization process, and they are, to varying degrees, the repository for structures, functions and urban patterns representing each phase. Metropolitan Vancouver is an example of this phenomenon although i t is a very young urban region. The contemporary urbanization phenomenon in industrialized society can be viewed as an accretion of functions and structures, but the result-ing urban fabric is greater and more complex than a sum of components. The central city in metropolitan areas provides the direction and co-ordi-nation for the region's economy, culture and technology and retains its historic functions of residential retail, commercial and industrial uses. The melding of these uses creates a vigorous, varied and vital environment, 1 2 a focus for the major aspects of man's l i f e . It i s also known for i t s chronic congestion, urban decay and slums. Its future as a viable entity 2 i s being debated. The suburban ring has acquired the function least competitive for space and most vulnerable to changes i n the central c i t y , that i s , low density residential and auxiliary uses. The suburbs i n their more ideal forms provide the rural values of pure a i r , residential land ownership and open space. However, they are known for their monotony, the need to commute and for voracious consumption of accessible farm land. In short, the contemporary metropolitan urban forms do not effect ively combine the different ideals of the central c i ty and suburb. Several urban forms have been developed according to these values, the most successful and well known being the English "New Towns". Funda-mentally these forms integrate functions and land uses to mitigate the f r i c t i o n s of space; they control quite r i g i d l y the interfunctional re -lationships to ensure optimal compatibility and attempt to l i m i t the ultimate size of the total urban entity.^" A more radical and ambitious experiment i s Expo's Habitat '67 i n which three-dimensional uses of space are integrated, potentially offering a greater measure of the same objec-5 t ives provided by the English "New Towns". These urban forms undoubtedly approximate an indust r ia l society's objectives, but they are enti t ies of development or replacement rather than redevelopment. In other words, complete commitment to English "New Towns" would necessitate writing off the tremendous social and economic capital invested i n the existing urban forms. Given the contemporary social and p o l i t i c a l r e a l i t i e s , extensive developments of this nature are not feasible i n the Vancouver area. Humphrey Carver has documented the trend towards decentralization of some of the central c i t i e s to the suburban areas creating, i n the author's words, "Ci t ies i n the Suburbs".^ The existing suburban social 3 and economic capital is retained and i t provides a bases for an urban form which approaches a system capable of satisfying existing social objectives. But Cities in the Suburbs substantially ignores the central city, and loss of this entity would drastically reduce the ability of a metropolitan region to generate the excitement and cohesion that attracts people and activities to i t . Further, there is reason to question the permanency of 7 the existing social objectives. Jane Jacobs has brought attention to the increasing popular orientation and commitment to the central city as a place to live and decries indiscriminate "redevelopment". Extensive change in this direction will invalidate the modern experiments with urban form. The quandary of the metropolis i s that i t attracts and holds people while i t generates a broadly based dissatisfaction. The tremendous social and economic investment has inextricably committed society to the city and has precluded any courses of action other than that of solving the prob-lems or of learning to live with them. Consensus regarding the future does not exist. Alternative and conflicting solutions, a l l of which are based on experience and observation, exist side by side. These suggest a lack of popular and professional understanding of the metropolis and poorly crystalized social objectives for i t . It is in this context that the study i s prepared. The Purpose It i s apparent that the metropolis in i t s entirety is too large to serve as a topic for a Master's Thesis. In addition, the relative dearth 9 of investigations and limited knowledge of this phenomenon preclude a broadly gauged study aimed at a comprehensive view of metropolitan dynam-ics. Thus the subject must be limited to a manageable but representative u sample in terms of the student's resources and the scope of this study. As suggested by the section entitled "The Context," residential uses are either a major problem or contingent to a major problem in metro-politan areas. Single family residential uses, their sites and the by-laws of control might be viewed as mutually interdependent components of a system giving rise to "suburbia." This system i s common to a l l indus-t r i a l metropolises. It is intimately dependent on other urban functions and i t occupies more land than any other use in the city. Therefore, the general intent of this study is towards an in-depth understanding of the system governing the single family residential uses. The low density residential function was an integral part of the historic city, but i t generally pre-empted a suburban location in the historic metropolis. For example, there is a record of the Germanic tribes looting and burning the wealthy suburbs of Constantinople during the sixth century, although the city itself fended off the attack. During the dark ages,the metropolis as a distinct entity virtually ceased to exist, and i t reappears only in the last days of European feudalism. Mumford records that "outside the walk of London people were laying out l i t t l e gardens and fantastic summer houses, 'like mid summer pageants, with towers, tur-rets and chimneys', a f u l l two hundred years before anyone began self-conschiously to produce the fantastic villas .and follies of the Gothic 10 revival." The primary objectives were: firstly, to retreat from the dangerously unhealthy and crime ridden city and, secondly, to retain access to the economic activities of the city. Thus the desirable site quality was that distance from the city that would isolate the residence from the city, but not preclude commuting under the existing modes of transportation. In the case of Florence, that distance was about three 11 miles during the late middle ages. The very high cost of transportation 5 at this time provided a convenient economic barrier, and while "the suburb served only a favoured minority i t neither spoiled the countryside nor 12 threatened the city." The development of mass transit systems, particularly the streetcar and railroad, provided access to the surrounding countryside for those in lower socio-economic segments of the population, and by the nineteen hun-dreds the largest industrial cities had significant quantities of working class suburbs. At this time, the impact of the auto began to be felt. It significantly increased the accessible area and generated the phenomenon of suburban sprawl, that is, low density single family residential uses occupying extensive tracts of land. The basic motivations for moving to 13 the suburbs remained remarkably consistent, but the values of "status" and lower housing costs began to influence the decision-of "flight from 1A the city." However, the crucial mutation was the standardization by developers of the residential product for the mass market. A variation of the assembly line technique evolved whereby the workers moved from unit to unit in sequence, each performing a single job. In order for this system to work effectively, fairly large blocks of land had to be acquired, and these were available at a reasonable price several miles from the city. Marketability continued to be dependent on access to the central city where employment was available and major purchases were made. The net impact i s summarized by Clark as follows} ". . . i t was the drive to keep.''house prices down which forced subdivision developers further and further into the country. Where people wanted to live had very l i t t l e to 15 do with where houses were built." Consequently, the primary site quality for residential uses was related to the developers' needs in order to produce a marketable product, rather than a consideration of the desires of the potential occupants. 6 Under these circumstances, i t might be expected that the population u l t i -mately occupying a subdivision would be selected according to their need for housing, their need for better housing and their ability and willing-16 ness to pay for i t . This view i s supported by a recent study in Toronto, The generation of suburban development has been attributed to a number of factors, ranging from Mumford's view that i t was a "middleclass effort to find a private solution for the depression and disorder of the 17 befouled metropolis . . . " to Gottmann's observations regarding the early 18 attribution of status to suburban living. In most cases>it i s related to population growth in the urban region. Population growth stimulates demand for new housing stock over and above the normal replacement process, resulting in lateral spread of the city. Clark describes the i n i t i a l suburban population as follows: Typically, the suburban family was a young couple which had started out in a flat in the city, had moved to larger rented quarters on the birth of the fi r s t child and had made the move to the suburbs before or soon after the birth of the second. Gf the total residents of (selected subdivisions in suburban Toronto) at the time of the house purchase, more than one-half had at least one child but not more than two. Thus the characteristic in common is the need for the stand-ardized residential product that suburbia offers. The need is related to population age structure in two waysj firstly, i t is the product of the early stages of the family rearing phase and, sec-ondly, i t is the product of established and stable income, which tends to be congruent with the family rearing phase. It follows that the i n i t i a l subdivision population age structure will be constituted by the 25 to 4-4 and under ten year age groups - which has, in fact, been repeatedly ob-served. The system of suburban development has been effectively institu-tionalized by municipal ordinances, especially the zoning by-laws. This instrument resulted from the intrusion into residential areas by commercial and industrial uses desiring to "short circuit" the competition or find 7 20 cheaper building sites. Extensive residential decay followed and, in the absence of control over the quality of non-residential uses, zoning by-laws were developed to keep them out of residential subdivisions. The impact has been to protect the single family residential use from compe-tition by other uses for undeveloped building sites, as well as to protect existing developments from enroachment. The creation of pervasive mono-tony and accentuated sprawl have been criticisms consistently made con-cerning zoning by-laws. These criticisms concern the environmental quality resulting from homogeneous development over extensive areas. Single family residential zoning surrounds the central city, the area that might be expected to be developed for this type of use in the absence of zoning. It follows that zoning does not significantly alter the basic relationship between single family residential uses and suburban locations; rather i t ensures that this relationship is maintained. Since zoning by-laws allocate fairly extensive areas of suburban land for single family residential uses, i t has a constant value in suburban residential locations. That i s , zoning will not encourage an individual to purchase one residential site over another when both sites have the same restric-tions and enjoy the same protection under the by-law. Given the relationships outlined above, the reasons for an individ-ual to select one location over another are limited. The reasons seem to be the availability of the product and the potential occupant's ability to pay. Clark, in his study of suburban areas in Toronto, discovered that, For the most part, he (the home owner) stumbled - or rushed - into buying a house in the suburbs without giving consideration to anything except for his need for better residential accommodation . . .For the vast majority of families who moved from the city to the suburbs in search of a house . . . i t did not greatly matter in what residen-t i a l area they settled. Indeed, a l l areas looked very much alike ... there was nothing much which distinquished one area from another except the price of the house. 8 Wolforth, in a study of residential location and place of work in Vancouver, emphasized the cost factor thus; ". . . i t may be affirmed that the cost 22 of residential space i s a prime determinant of residential locations." Differential housing cost is derived from differential site and 23 structural qualities. The incidence of high cost housing is not scat-tered at random throughout a suburban area, but is isolated in distinct pockets. Table 1 shows a comparison between three census tracts in metropolitan Vancouver, 1961. This table indicates a concentration of high cost housing in Census Tract 131 and a concentration of low cost housing in Census Tract 4-9. Since the cost of housing reflects the occu-pant's ability to pay, i t is inferred that concentrations of individuals in one socio-economic class also occur. It is kn'ownn. that a population's performance of demographic processes is related to socio-economic class. Consequently, i t might be expected that differences in site and structural quality, the determinants of housing cost, are associated with differences in a population's demographic characteristics. Table 1 shows differences in the bimodal age group's location on the population age structure continuum, as well as differences in the relative size of these age groups. The differences in age structure will in part be explained by the age of the subdivision. The i n i t i a l influx at the time of construction will set up an age structure that will be maintained from census to cen-sus, the modal age groups increasing according to the length of the census period. That is, population "X" in which the modal age group in 1951 was 25 to 34- years will have a 35 to 44- modal age group in 1961. Thus the subdivisions constructed at different times will have different modal age groups. But Table 1 shows for example, an adult modal age group of 35 to 44- years in Census Tracts 131 and 4-9, but infant modal age groups of 10 to 14- years for Census Tract 4-9 and 5 to 9 years for Census Tract 131. 9 These differences indicate an association between site quality and popu-lation age structure. Therefore, i t is hypothesized that differences in site quality is associated with quantitative differential in population age structure from site to site. TABLE 1 UNIT COST AND BIMODAL AGE GROUPS FOR SELECTED CENSUS TRACTSa C.T., 1961 Median Value Bimodal Age Groups (Male) % of Total Population 131 $27,272 5 - 9 6.3 35-44 8.8 39 116,731 10 - 14 5.0 45 - 54 7.6 49 $12,082 10 - 14 11.4 35-44 10.8 aCanada, Population and Housing Characteristics by Census Tracts. Vancouver. Cat. 95-537. The Method The study involves establishing the relationship between two variables, site characteristics and population age structure, in the pres-ence of an exogenous variable, single family residential zoning. The method of investigation i s constituted by three basic steps; (a) descrip-tion and measurement of the variables; (b) assessment and specification of the effects of zoning on the variables; and (c) correlation of the variables in order to establish a relationship and validate the hypothesis.. Metropolitan Vancouver was selected as the subject. Besides being 10 easily accessible for on site visits and substantial quantities of infor-mation being available, i t provides the unique advantage of the greatest range of natural environments within one metropolitan area in Canada. In order to reduce the quantity of data to manageable proportions for this study, three areas, deemed to be significant samples of the variables, were selected. Census Tracts provided the most useful boundaries because data regarding population age structure are available by these areas and they are subdivided into Enumeration Districts for detailed analysis. Consequently, Census Tracts 49 (Fraserview), 39 (West Point Grey) and 131 (British Properties) are used. The criteria for selection were; (a) uniformity of single family detached dwelling residential zoning; 26 (b) evidence of single family uses made of the dwellings; (c) uniformity of general environmental quality in each Census Tract; and (d) range of general environmental quality between Census Tracts. The method of description and measurement of the site quality vari-able is limited by the purpose for these operations, which is a statisti-cal correlation to the population age structure variable. Thus, i t must be reduced to mathematical descriptions and measurements. The general mathematical descriptions that are relevant are the absolute or generic value of the site, for example, measured by market cost, or an ordering of the sites relative to each other. The generic value is not very useful because i t submerges the components of site quality, thus eliminating in-depth analysis. Therefore, a system of rating is employed. The system employed i s taken from Residential Land Subdivisionst 27 A Physical Evaluation and modified according to the specific needs for this study. The fundamentals of this method are to categorize the com-ponents of site value, assign values from available data or observations, and rate the sites according to their relative values. The results of 11 this operation are in Chapter II. For analysis of the population age structure variable, the choice of statistical instruments is based on the nature of the data used and 28 the type of problem at hand. The data are taken from Dominion Bureau of Statistics Enumeration Districts for 1961 and 1966. These data are entirely quantities and totals of various characteristics categorized according to geographical areas and, consequently, they are not "meaning-29 fui in and of themselves." Analysis depends on simplification and reduction of the data to a comparable base. The type of problem involves (a) description of the variable; (b) establishment of the differences in the variable between the selected areas; and (c) establishment of the change in the variable for each area through time. Accordingly, percent-ages are used for (a); ratios are used for (b); and rates are used for (c). These instruments are easy to use and allow a maximum number of manipula-tions, and they can be converted one to the other. The results of their application to the population age structure variable are in Chapter III. The second basic step in the method of analysis, assessing and specifying the effects of zoning on the variables, is initiated by a "thumbnail" sketch of the major European and American precedents. This shows the historical development of zoning as an administrative instrument for allocating and maintaining sites for specific uses. Zoning was imported from the United States into Canada with minimal adjustments, although the Americans must use the "Police Powers" of the States as 3 0 authority in order to avoid offending the Constitution and the Canadians employ zoning under Section 92 of the British North America Act. A cer-tain amount, of misunderstanding regarding the application of zoning is evident and the consequences for the urban environment and its inhabitants are assessed below. Particular reference is made to Vancouver's experience M A P 1 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SITE QUALITY AND POPULATION AGS STRUCTURE: THREE CASE STUDIES, SUBURBAN VANCOUVER Master's Thesis SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY & REGIONAL PL-MINING UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SAMPLE LOCATIONS A =• Fraserview B = West P o i n t Grey C = B r i t i s h P r o p e r t i e s Not To Scale Peter Weston 13 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SITE QUALITY AND POPULATION AGS STRUCTURE: THREE CASE STUDIES, SUBURBAN VANCOUVER M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY & REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ' FRASERVIEl-r SAMPLE PART OF CENSUS TRACT 49 Scale: (Q_ 1/4 XOlf-Source: Planning Department, City of Vancouver., Hap 3738 Peter Weston u THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SITE QUALITY AND POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE: THREE CASE STUDIES, SUBURBAN VANCOUVER M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY &• REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WEST POINT GREY SAMPLE CENSUS TRACT 39 Scale S o u r c e : P l a n n i n g Department, C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , Map 373.3 Peter Weston 15 ' \ SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY. & REGIONAL PLANNING a„ UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA T e x t » P " 3 ^ Sourcei Dist. o f West Vancouver Peter Weston ' 1 6 with zoning in order to assess the effects on the variables in the selected samples. The final stage of the method involves correlation of the variables and interpretation of the results. The data and observations are refined to interval measures; this allows use of the Pearson product-moment cor-31 relation. This statistical instrument establishes the existence of a relationship between variable and measures the relationship's level of significance. The method is concluded by validation of the hypothesis and interpretation of the correlation. The Scope The function of zoning in the urban environment i s critical in terms of allocation and control of private and public property. Its im-portance can be guaged by the pressure on real estate for both lateral and vertical development in Metropolitan areas, in order to accommodate the increased numbers and intensities of land uses. The inadequacies of this 32 instrument are eloquently documented and alternatives or adjuncts to i t , 33 for example "C.D.1 zoning" in the City of Vancouver, are repeatedly put forward. The basic issue i s , however, that the place of zoning as an administrative instrument in public control of property has not been clearly understood or consistently applied in many of the major metro-politan areas of North America. Consequently, zoning is given some empha-sis in this study with attention to whether i t has functioned as a legislative or administrative instrument in metropolitan Vancouver. There are discrepancies between the definition of "family" in the Vancouver City zoning by-laws, which includes, for example, up to two roomers and groups of persons who are not in fact consanguineous families, and the Dominion Bureau of Statistics' definition. Compensation for this 17 DIAGRAM 1 METHOD OF ANALYSIS: SUMMARY Site Quality Variable Population Age Structure Variable Exogenous Variable: Single Family Residential Zoning Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Interpretation Conclusion 18 has been made when selecting study areas by avoiding Census Tracts showing high incidence of non-single family households (Dominion Bureau of Statis-tics' definition) and by designing the investigation to circumvent procedures dependent on the familial make up of the population. The population age structure variable is a basic determinant of the demographic processes, f e r t i l i t y , mortality and migration. As such, i t determines the population's performance as far as replacement and growth are concerned and ultimately determines the intensity of use for any given residential vicinity. The importance of these processes for the urban environment are well documented and will not be dealt with herein. This variable also determines the production and consumption capacities of a population. Societal roles in North America are tied to the individual's age; for example, the age groups from five to nineteen attend school almost universally, generating a demand for schools and teachers. The twenty to fifty-nine age groups are the "productive" members providing skills for industry and demanding material goods in return. It follows that differential between populations in, for example, the five to nine-teen year age group will generate different needs for educational facil i t i e s . Population age structure must be considered firstly, as static (above) and secondly, as dynamic. Suburban populations have unbalanced age structures which are recognized as the cause of "second generation 3A problems." Through time, variations in the quantity in any one age group fluctuate in waves, providing alternative spate and dearth of indi-viduals. Disruption in the peer group continuum prevents successful acculturation of the adolescents and frequently causes disintegration of the normal community functions, particularly voluntary associations. Consequently, a population's age structure may be viewed as an indication 19 of its social state of health. Various aspects of population's social structure are examined in detail in Chapter III in order to establish how socio-economic class effects population age structure. The value and the type of interpretations regarding population age structure are dictated ultimately by the quality and arrangement of the data that are available. The Dominion Bureau of Statistics census data are used in this study. They are collected as a "constitutional require-ment for determining the redistribution of seats in the Federal House of 35 Commons" and their arrangement and areal categories, as a result, are according to political rather than demographic objectives. The five and ten year age groups precipitate insensitive conclusions irrespective of the statistical instruments employed. In addition, some of Enumeration Districts are illogical areas (the worst offenders have been deleted) and provide areas of limited worth for non-political analysis. Consequently, analytical procedures directed to a high order of precision have been avoided and the findings from Enumeration Districts have been aggregated in order to submerge random error. The site quality variable is constituted by inherent components, such as topography, and artificial components, such as the structural improvements i t contains. The inherent components provide characteristics which are more desirable to certain urban uses. For example, railroads function most effectively in level land and residential uses make optimal use of a site's aspect. Ideally, the urban uses would be allocated ac-cording to a site's inherent qualities. In practice, competition on the "free market" for a site will decide the eventual occupant according to the ability to pay, frequently with minimal regard for the site's charac-teristics other than its location for economic purposes. Subsequently, the artificial components of the site-quality, such as buildings and 20 roads, are constructed and tend to lock i n the use. The resulting net site value i s the quality of environment provided for the population. The impact of environment on society i s generally known but, as yet, not 36 accurately measurable. This study deals with one approach to the prob-lem by using a comprehensive site value measure and relating i t to one area of environment impact on man, his population age structure. The scope of this investigation i s according to the characteristics of the variables as set out above and according to the outlined analytical procedures. For the purposes of this study, the metropolis i s viewed as an entity composed of three dimensions, urban processes, areal extent and time. A part of each of these dimensions has been taken, the population age structure and functions of zoning being urban processes, the three Census Tracts part of the areal extent, and 1961 to 1966 the time period. The sample i s s t r a t i f i e d ; therefore, the conclusions cannot be extrapola-ted to metropolitan Vancouver. Rather, this study i s directed towards establishing and describing the relationship between environmental quality and population age structure. 21 Footnotes J. Friedman and W. Alonso (ed.), Regional Development and Plan-ning. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1964.), chaps. 19-20. 0. Handlin and T. Burchard (ed.), The Historian and the City. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1963), pp. 133-14-5. \» Ewald, Jr., (ed.), Environment for Man - The Next Fifty Years. (Bloomington and London: Indiana University Press, 1967), p. 253. ^"Greater London Council, Planning of a New Town. (London: The Council, 1965), chap. 2. 5 Ewald, op. cit.. chap. 10. H. Carver, Cities in the Suburbs. (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1962), chap. 4-. J. Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities. (New York: Vintage Books, 1 9 6 3 ) , chap. 1 5 . . E. M. Hoover and R. Vernon, Anatomy of a Metropolis. (Garden City: New York, Anchor Books, 1959)» p. 1. ^Handlin, op. cit.. p. 14-9. 10 L. Mumford, The City in History. (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, Inc., 1961), p. 4-84-. 1 1Ibid. 1 2Ibid.. p. 506. 1 3Ibid.. p. 4-87. 1^S. D. Clark, The Suburban Society. (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1 9 6 6 ) , p. 4 8 . 1 5Ibid. l 6Ibid., chap. 3. 17 Mumford, op. cit.. p. 4-92. 18 J. Gottmann, Megalopolis. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1961), p. 211. 19 Clark, op. cit.. p. 90. 20 E. M. Bassett, Zoning. (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1936), pp. 20-28. 21 Clark, op. cit.. p. 66. 22 22 J. R. Wolforth, Residential Location and the Place of Work. (Van-couver: Tantalus Research Limited, 1965), p. 74. 23 Clark, op. cit.. p. 37. Wrong, Population and Society. (New York: Random House, 1956), chap. i . 25 Greater London Council, op. cit.. p. 19. 26 Canada, Population by Housing Characteristics and Census Tracts. Vancouver. (Cat. 95-537), pp. U-15,17, Items 9-12. 27 Community and Regional Planning Studies, Residential Land Subdi-vision: A physical Evaluation. Division of Community and Regional Planning, Faculty of Graduate Studies, University of British Columbia, (Vancouver: by the Division, 1965), chap. 3. 28 L. C. Freeman, Elementary Applied Statistics. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1965), p. 11. ^Ibid., p. 26. 30 Bassett, op. cit.. p. 26. P. Hoel, Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1962), pp. 160-68. 32 R. Babcock, The Zoning Game. (Madison, Wis.: University of Wisconsin Press, 1966), chap. 1. 3 3Ibid.. p. 7. London County Council, op. cit.. pp. 18-19. 35 J. Porter, Canadian Social Structure: A Statistical Profile. (Toronto: McClelland and Stewart Ltd., 1967), p. 4. 3^Ewald, op. cit.. pp. 22-25. CHAPTER II THE SITE QUALITY VARIABLE Introduction What relationship exists between man and his environment? That an intimate relationship exists in which man molds his environment and is in 1 turn molded by i t , is widly known. The most important aspects of the complex matrix of factors and processes which constitute this relationship are man's ecological and cultural responses. The system of biological needs and satisfactions of them, in any given region, are tempered by man's acquired technique and desires to use the resources. Since resourc-es and cultural responses vary greatly and both change through time, the relationship is extremely complex and inhibits precise and detailed explanation. In addition, the definitions of "environment" and "optimal" 2 response to i t have not been established. In this situation, two ap-proaches seem feasible, the first being intuitive planning, the pragmatic meeting of the pressing needs of the day, and the second is systematic investigation for more certain decision making. This chapter's objective lies within the confines of the second approach and i t is oriented towards investigating site characteristics which man cherishes in his environment. For the purposes of this study, environment refers to man's habitat in general: site refers to man's habitat when i t is areally defined. 23 o 24 For example, the city is an individual's urban environment, but a single t family residential property is an individual's site. This chapter is constituted by an examination of literature to identify site qualities that are desired by man. A method is de-veloped to rate three selected sample areas according to site quality. Finally, the observations derived by the method of rating for the sample areas are summarized. Aspects of Site Quality Certain aspects of man's relationship to his environment have been consistently observed through history and these in their mutated form are of primary importance. Anthropologists generally agree that a l l societies i n i t i a l l y practised a hunting and gathering economy. All members parti-cipated and, due to the dispersion of usable produce found in the natural state, i t was necessary for the group to be relatively small, rarely exceeding one hundred, and to move constantly. Permanent dwellings in this economy were extremely rare, but there i s evidence that the societal groups periodically returned to an established site and that they occupied 3 a defined territory. A crucial innovation was agriculture, especially in the river valleys of the Nile and Mesopotamia. Man was, thereafter, ensured of a fairly reliable source of food that would supply his needs for an entire year i f stored properly. In the more productive regions, a surplus was available. Permanent occupation of a site and the development of cities followed. In the gathering and hunting and the agricultural economies, a site is primarily of value for the resources i t produces. The more opulent a region happens to be, the more desirable the site. This pragmatic relationship between man and his environment i s maintained to modern times over the greatest area of the inhabitable surface of the earth, the Canadian Prairies being an excellent example. Remnants of even 25 the hunting and gathering economies exist in the modern industrial soci-eties as shown by the extensive areas used for hunting and fishing. In this case, the desire for the resource has mutated from dire necessity to the gratification derived from sport. However, man's relationship to the primeval environment has been maintained - i t is of value to him according to its resources. In the context of modern industrial societies, agricultural and sport activities are relegated to the hinterland and are not internalized in the urban system to any extent. Consequently, access to environmental resources rather than the right to secure them directly tends to be the established relationship, and this is the case in metropolitan Vancouver. Note is made, however, of Frank Lloyd Wright's "Broadacres" concept in which the metropolitan societies would revert to the more primitive rela-tionship between man and his environment. Within the confines of Wright's interpretation of societal objectives this concept appears to have merit/' The hunter's attachment to a territory is slight, but i t is recog-nizable; in agricultural economies i t becomes definable and distinctive. For example, in the Nile Valley, a l l vestiges of ownership were annually inundated by the floods. The Egyptians developed a system of surveying whereby each farmer could return to his own plot, although i t would not be very different and would have l i t t l e advantage over any adjacent plot. This drive to pre-emp and hold territory is studied perceptively in a 5 recent publication, Hall's Hidden Dimension. This study indicates that possession of a site has value in the very act of possession as distinct from the right to use its resources, although the two aspects are obvious-ly related. Site includes fairly permanent possession and area. One impact of industrialization has been to free man from dependence on a site's 26 resources, a factor which complemented the value of possession. In addition, condominiums and apartments have modified this factor to involve a point in space. Substantial mobility, observable particularly in North America, suggests a certain degeneration of the site possession aspect. However, i t is argued by Dubos that man's genetic stability determines the "psychological limits beyond which human l i f e cannot be altered by social and technical innovations." If this is the case, i t might be concluded that site possession will remain a fairly constant value, a l -though the terms of the act might be modified and restricted. The areal aspect of site is somewhat more difficult to define. Biologically, i t is that area which would support a societal unit, and i t varies according to the opulence of the resources and the size of the unit. This relationship has been superseded by urbanization. However, vestiges of i t are retained by cultural and psychological mechanisms; for example, early photographs of frontiersman and pioneer groups show individuals scattered whereas family groups of the same period are organ-ized and tightly assembled. These mechanisms tend to generate the allo-cation of a standard area to each societal unit but the precise dimensions of this area are problematic. It would appear to be the 4-800 or 6000 square foot lots that are ubiquitous in suburbia. However, these areas are inflated to provide sound proofing, fire protection and other tech-nical requirements. In any event, these areas might be a function of a relationship. An additional point is that the status value of ownership is in part related to size of holdings. It might be expected that elite residential areas would have substantially lower densities than working class suburbs. Although the natural resources of a site are redundant in the urban setting, they have been effectively replaced by the services which supply 27 a number of e s s e n t i a l s of l i f e . B r i e f l y , they are sanitary sewers, garbage di s p o s a l , drainage f a c i l i t i e s , power, f u e l , communications and vehicular 7 and pedestrian access. Certain items, u s u a l l y adequate drainage f a c i l i -t i e s or sidewalks, are not provided i n many instances. The development of an adequate l e v e l of services i n the c i t y was an astoundingly time con-suming process. Garbage di s p o s a l i n the ancient Mesopotamian c i t i e s was g c a r r i e d out by f l i n g i n g refuse into the streets and leaving i t to decay. Compare t h i s with E n g l i s h c i t i e s during the I n d u s t r i a l Revolution where i t was reported (184-5) that "rubbish remained there ( i n the s t r e e t s ) , no matter how v i l e and f i l t h y , u n t i l the accumulation induced someone to Q carry i t away f o r manure." Only during the l a s t century has t e c h n i c a l knowledge been able to provide a safe l e v e l of urban services; the p o l i t i -c a l and economic systems have not been able to make t h e i r p r o v i s i o n u n i -v e r s a l i n i n d u s t r i a l c i t i e s to date, with the notable exception of the "new towns." The point i s , however, that people demand a high l e v e l of ser v i c e s . They are an i n t e g r a l part of a r e s i d e n t i a l l o t ' s value, and d i f f e r e n t i a l p r o v i s i o n of them influences the s i t e ' s r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y . The s i t e i s viewed i n i t s unimproved state by the i n i t i a l owner and developer. The type and q u a l i t y of dwelling i s according to the "demand" on the market and the d i c t a t e s of the zoning and b u i l d i n g by-laws. In t h i s way, the dwelling u n i t i s an i n t e g r a l part of the s i t e from the occupant's point of view. Exception to t h i s i s found i n the e l i t e r e s i -d e n t i a l areas where many s i t e s are purchased by the future occupants and the u n i t s designed and constructed to t h e i r s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . Contingent to the inherent worth of the u n i t are i t s age, mainen-ance and f u n c t i o n a l v i a b i l i t y . Single family r e s i d e n t i a l structures out-l i v e t h e i r usefulness with notorious r a p i d i t y . Tastes and needs of the occupants change and the minimum l e v e l s of accommodation increase according 28 10 t o demand and t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f m u n i c i p a l a u t h o r i t i e s . O b s o l e s c e n c e i s o f t e n accompanied by n e g l e c t e d maintenance and c r o w d i n g , p r o d u c i n g t h e " g r e y a r e a " a s p e c t t o t h e l e a s t v i a b l e a r e a s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e l e v e l o f maintenance o f a u n i t and i t s f u n c t i o n a l v i a b i l i t y a r e e l e m e n t s i n d e t e r -m i n i n g t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a s i t e . H i s t o r i c a l l y , one o f t h e b a s i c d r i v e s o f man was t o e s t a b l i s h h i m -s e l f i n t h e "optimum" e n v i r o n m e n t . F o r example, t h e p r o p h e t Amos r e c o r d s t h a t t h e w e a l t h y men o f I s r a e l e s t a b l i s h e d t h e i r w i v e s and f a m i l i e s i n t h e m o u n t a i n s o f Bashon. These p e o p l e f l e d f r o m t h e h o t and d u s t y d e s e r t and u r b a n s q u a l o r t o t h e c o o l , c l e a n m o u n t a i n s , where t h e y c o u l d be com-f o r t a b l e and e n j o y t h e freedom g a i n e d t h r o u g h p r i v a c y . I n t h e same way t h a t c r i m e and d i s e a s e e n c o u r a g e d d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n f r o m t h e h i s t o r i c c e n t r a l c i t y , so p o l l u t i o n and c o n g e s t i o n a f f e c t t h e modern c i t y . T h i s e f f e c t i s r e i n f o r c e d b y t h e r e p u t e d l y o p t i m a l e n v i r o n m e n t f o r f a m i l y 11 r e a r i n g f o u n d i n s u b u r b i a . D o b r i n e r has f o r m u l a t e d a t h e o r y o f " f l i g h t and s e a r c h " b a s e d on 12 t h e f a i r l y c o n s i s t e n t p a t t e r n s i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n s h i f t s t o t h e s u b u r b s . He f o u n d t h a t c o m p a t i b l e e t h n i c and s o c i o - e c o n o m i c g r o u p s were c o n s i d e r a -t i o n s i n s e l e c t i o n o f a s i t e . C l a r k ' s s t u d y o f suburban T o r o n t o c o n c u r s w i t h t h e s e f i n d i n g s , b u t he f o u n d t h a t such c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t o be o f s e c o n d a r y i m p o r t a n c e . E x c e p t i o n s were t h e most e x c l u s i v e developments o r 13 i n s t a n c e s where t h e p r o s p e c t i v e suburban d w e l l e r a l r e a d y owned a home. I n any e v e n t , t h e n e c e s s a r y s t a t i s t i c s t o d e a l w i t h t h i s a s p e c t f o r t h i s s t u d y a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e as y e t and i t w i l l n o t be c o n s i d e r e d any f u r t h e r . The f i n a l a s p e c t o f s i t e q u a l i t y i s p r o p i n q u i t y , t h e n e a r n e s s t o u r b a n f u n c t i o n s h a v i n g i m p a c t on t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t h e s i t e . I n .a m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a such as V a n c o u v e r , any g i v e n l o c a t i o n i s i n t r i c a t e l y i n t e r w o v e n , f u n c t i o n a l l y s p e a k i n g , w i t h a v a s t a r r a y o f u r b a n a c t i v i t i e s . 29 The c r u c i a l aspects of propinquity are those d i r e c t l y involved i n carrying out the functions focused on a r e s i d e n t i a l s i t e . For example, the j u x t a -p o s i t i o n of a school and a park are of convenience to the ch i ldren and the ent i re f a m i l y respec t ive ly . Gn the other hand, an adjacent heavy industry might const i tute a nuisance by v i r tue of high noise l e v e l s or noxious effluence generated. Certa in of these re la t ionsh ips have been rendered i n s e n s i t i v e due to the high l e v e l of m o b i l i t y avai lable to the suburban population through the automobile and publ ic t r a n s i t . Wolforth found that r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n as a funct ion of the place of work could be d i s e n -tangled w i t h i n the scope of h i s study "although there i s obviously an 1A i n t e r a c t i o n . " The above overview of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between man and environment indicates the scope and complexity of factors i n v o l v e d . There i s evidence of mutation i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p through t ime. Demand f o r resource pro-ducing holdings are now relegated to the h i n t e r l a n d , as was previously mentioned. In the fu ture , there i s evidence that aesthetics and sa lubr i ty of an environment w i l l generate the greatest demandj i t i s , i n f a c t , a 15 primary consideration of the E n g l i s h "New Towns" at the present t ime. Gottmann argues that the development of automation frees the population from l o c a t i n g at the s i t e of production. The development of sophisticated communications systems, together wi th the need for "quaternary a c t i v i t i e s " (administrat ion, f inance , research, teaching and so on) al low the popu-l a t i o n to locate i n the most desirable l o c a t i o n . He c i t e s the instance of the I . B . M . Corporation b u i l d i n g a centre near Nice , France, " l a r g e l y to o f f e r the young s c i e n t i s t s and technicians they employ a l l the advan-tages 6f l i v i n g and working amid the p h y s i c a l , c u l t u r a l , and recreat ional 16 amenities of the glamorous spot of France." Further , i t i s speculated that the equal i ty of earning power, r e s u l t i n g from m i l i t a n t union a c t i v i t y DIAGRAM 2 CATEGORIES: ASPECTS OF SITE QUALITY Assessment A c c o r d i n g t o t h e Above Ove r v i e w Redundant A s p e c t s N a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s Assessment b y H y p o t h e t i c a l S i t e Occupant Common A s p e c t s S a n i t a r y s e r v i c e s Water s u p p l y S t r e e t L i g h t i n g Hydro A s p e c t s n o t S i g -n i f i c a n t t o Samples M a j o r c o m m e r c i a l f a c i l i t i e s Employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s R e l e v a n t A s p e c t s n o t U s e a b l e E t h n i c compo-s i t i o n s S o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s s R e l e v a n t A s p e c t s P a r k s S c h o o l s S i d e v r a l k s V i e w s S i t e m a i n t e n a n c e 31 and discriminatory taxation, inhibits the activity of a corporation to attract the young and intelligent specialists, unless i t offers non-monetary value, such as I.B.M. provided. Although the relationship i s i n flux and lacks adequate c l a r i t y to be dealt with incisively, a number of the aspects outlined above show adequate consistency to form a basis for analysis. As previously men-tioned, an understanding of the relationship rather than a generic value, or quantification of i t , i s the objective. The following section of this chapter w i l l be devoted to developing a system to rate the selected sites according to the above aspects of man's environment. Assessment of Site Quality: The Method The points which set the bounds for the method are as follows: (a) This study must adopt the point of view of a hypothetical occupant of each selected site, not that of a potential occupant, or an investigating professional. As previously mentioned, the primary deter-minants of dwelling selection are need or desire for better accommodation and the financial a b i l i t y to pay for i t . Since the number of vacancies i n the sites are negligible, i t must be assumed that the occupants meet these c r i t e r i a de facto. Therefore, the existing occupants approximate those who need the accommodation and are able to pay for i t , as provided on the sites. They have selected their accommodation on the "free market" and they are free to dispose of i t i f i t i s unsatisfactory. I t i s their evaluation that i s relevant. Accordingly the site qualities must di s t i n -quished by very broad categories such as "yes" and "no" or "good" and "bad." Ideally, each dwelling would be assessed individually, as would someone considering purchase of a unit. This, however, i s beyond the tesources available for this study and, therefore, Enumeration Districts 32 are the units used. Since the samples are fairly homogeneous, i t is felt that they are adequately representative. (b) The method must distinquish differences in the desirability of the site. Factors that are present in a l l samples and are not obviously subject to levels of quality, such as sanitary services, water supply and hydro, do not provide a basis for differential site desirability. In addition, site factors that have distinquishable qualities, such as resources or potential to produce resources, are no longer significant in selecting suburban residences. These are not dealt with. On the other hand, the availability of schools and parks, access to a view and so on, provide a basis for the selection by the occupant. The method is based on them. (c) Certain criteria which distinquish differences, such as "racial quality" and "socio-economic" class of the subdivision, cannot be used because of the lack of data. Further, certain data are available, but might not be very usable within the limitation of this study. This in-cludes i n i t i a l sales price per unit and assessment value. Since this study is aimed at determining a rating for the sites rather than a generic value and the method provides for multiple assessments of site quality, i t is felt that harmful distortions are thereby avoided. (d) Certain aspects of the site have been rendered insensitive by the high level of mobility available to suburban occupants. A l l samples have fairly comprehensive commercial uses nearby and they have access to 17 major employment opportunities. These aspects no longer affect dif-18 ferential site desirability to any significant degree between single family residential suburbs, unless locational extremes, such as White Rock, are considered. These are not dealt with herein. Diagram 2 provides a summary of the assessment of site qualities. 33 It does not pretend to be exhaustive, but rather, is considered represent-ative of the procedure followed. The objective of the method is to provide a site rating that allows for correlation between the two variables, population age structure and site quality. The method is designed also to provide a more sensitive rating than a simple rank order would provide. Diagram 3 shows the site quality aspects and the detail of the method. Site quality aspects are categorized according to: natural qualities, which are those inherent to the site, such as vie*;: qualities of improvement, that is aspects wrought by man; and qualities of location, which are improvements on other sites bearing a definable impact on the subject :site. The detail of the method is constituted by criteria for assignment of numerical value, method of assignment of numerical value -this includes "direct" which means the assignment is based on available 19 data and "indirect" meaning the assignment is based on field observations -and weight of assignment. It is assumed that the three significant categories should be 20 weighted equally; thus five is the maximum rating for each category and fifteen is the maximum rating for each site. Since the samples have dif-ferent numbers of Enumeration Districts, the geographic units of analysis, the arithmetical average for each category and for the total rating is used for each sample. Value is assigned for each aspect by Enumeration Districts and i t is assigned only when the criterion for the specific aspect under consideration is met to the satisfaction of the evaluator. It is noted that this system of rating is based in part on value judge-21 ments. Failure to meet the criterion for the aspect is awarded no score. 34" The Investigation Final selection of the sample boundaries was based on the congru-ence of Enumeration District boundaries for 1961 and 1966, for Census Tracts 49, 39 and the northern part of 131. In the case of the last Census Tract, complete congruence could not be achieved without inserting an undesirable hetrogeneity into the sample. A review of air photos indicates no discrepancy results in the number of homes; therefore this anomaly i s not deemed to be significant. The samples are shown on Maps 2 to 4, and their location in metropolitan Vancouver is shown on Map 1. A photo-study was carried out in conjunction with field observa-tions and i t is constituted in this study by Plates I to III. Its purpose was to augment the sample's numerical rating by providing site "character" or atmosphere. The summary of the data collection and analysis is shown on Table 2. The ratings assigned to the samples are used for this correla-tion analysis in Chapter V. PLATE I PHOTO-STUDY: CENSUS TRACT FORTY-NINE, FRASERVIEW Frame houses, some with stucco f i n i s h , predominate. They are about f i f teen years o l d ; their design lacks imagination and many are very small. There i s some evidence of neglect. Landscaping has been car-ried out but i t i s of poor quality and poorly maintained. An atmosphere of monotony i s evident. Converse-l y , municipal services are complete and well maintained. The right of way, s ixty-six feet wide, i s grassed and planted with trees, providing an open character ( l e f t ) . Note the industr ia l clutter along the Fraser River, and the smoke from a sawdust burner, (right, background). PLATE II PHOTO-STUDY: CENSUS TRACT THIRTY-NINE, WEST POINT GREY Frame and stucco houses are throughout the sample. Their age varies from about fi f t y to ten years old. There is some variety in both architectural style and landscaping. Most units are of medium size except for a few very large dwellings located adjacent to the University Endowment Lands. The level of maintenance is consistently high. Similar to the Fraserview sample, the municipal services are complete and well maintained. Note the new tree plantings between the sidewalk and street. There is substantial growth of mature trees along the streets in many parts of the sample (right, background). PLATE III PHOTO-STUDY: CENSUS TRACT ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY-ONE, BRITISH PROPERTIES The houses are large, and well constructed. Architectural quality is exceptionally high. A view of natural or urban amenity is available in nearly every direction. Landscaping is carried out on small patches surrounding the building and the remainder of the lot is left under stands of natural vegetation in many cases. Excessive slope is offset by very large lots and some leveling. Municipal services are poorly maintained and frequently absent. Note the drainage ditches (left) and absence of walking space (right). Distinctive character is provided by exceptional natural amenity and view. DIAGRAM 3 A SITE EVALUATION: METHOD Item Criteria for Assignment of Numerical Value Method of Assignment of Numerical Value Weight Per Sample Natural Qualities 1 . Watercourse Contained within or con-tiguous to the Enumeration Districts Uncluttered and Unpolluted Not Dangerous Efficient Indirect-field observation n tt Direct-record of flooding 1 2 . Natural Vegetation Maintenance of mature treegrowth excluding planting along right-of-way Indirect-field observation 1 3 . Slope Provides varied topography Not so excessive as to preclude outdoor uses Indirect-field observation tt 1 4 . Aspect Southerly exposure Direct-contour map 1 5 . View Uninterrupted distant view of pleasing natural or urban amenity unobscured by persistent smoke or haze Indirect-field observation 1 Subtotal 5 DIAGRAM 3—Continued Item Criteria for Assignment of Numerical Value Method of Assignment of Numerical Value Weight Per Sample Qualities of Improvement 6. Dwelling Unit Variety and "taste" of architecture Reasonable level of main-tenance evident by exterior Indirect-field observation ti 1 7. Landscaping Evident by lawns, shrubs etc. Reasonable level of main-tenance, e.g. grass is cut, brush is cleared When natural cover is main-tained above criteria is abrogated and value is assigned Indirect-field observation n tt 1 8. Drainage Curb and gutter Storm and sewer Direct-municipal records II 1 9. Sidewalks On at least one side of the street Constructed of concrete or asphalt Direct-municipal records II 1 10. Streets Provide reasonably direct and safe access Reasonable level of main-tenance Indirect-field observation II 1 Subtotal 5 DIAGRAM 3~Continued Item Criteria for Assignment of Numerical Value Method of Assignment of Numerical Value Weight Per Sample Qualities of Location 1 1 . School Elementary or secondary, public or private, con-tained in or contiguous to Enumeration Districts Direct-School Board records 1 1 2 . Park Two acres plus or contain-ing playground equipment No fee required Contained within or con-tiguous to Enumeration Districts Direct-Parks Boards II it 1 1 3 . Convenience Shopping Two acres or less, reason-ably well maintained Contained within or con-tiguous to Enumeration Districts Direct-zoning ordinance and indirect-field obser-vation Indirect-field observation 1 H . Urban Amenity No offensive noises, smoke or odour No unsightly structures or storage areas No hazardous functions or improvements Indirect-field observation II it 1 DIAGRAM 3—Continued Item Criteria for Assignment of Numerical Value Method of Assignment of Numerical Value Weight Per Sample Qualities of Location (continued) 1 5 . Communication Hazards No arterial street or high-way or railroad contained within the Enumeration Districts or constituting greater than 25% of its total boundary Direct-streetmap Indirect-field observation 1 Subtotal 5 Grand Total Refer to Community and Regional Planning Studies, Residential Land Subdivision: A Physical Evaluation. Division of Community and Regional Planning, Faculty of Graduate Studies, University of British Columbia, (Vancouver, by the Division, 1 9 6 5 ) , 1 5 5 p. Other references are Greater London Council, Planning  of a New Town. (London, The Council, 1 9 6 5 ) , chaps. 3, 5 and 9 , and American Public Health Association, Committee on the Hygiene of Housing, Planning the Neighbourhood. (Chicago, Public Administration Service, 1 9 4 8 and 1 9 6 0 ) , 9 4 p. 42 TABLE 2 SITE EVALUATION: RATING Item Census Tract 49 Census Tract 39 Census Tract 131 1 2 3 5 Natural Qualities Rating 6 7 8 9 10 Qualities of Imp-rovements Rating 11 12 13 H 15 Qualities of Lo-cation Rating 0 0 .69 .38 0 1.07 .09 .23 1.00 1.00 .69 3.01 .69 .46 .38 .85 .69 0 .42 .42 .33 0 1.17 .54 .90 1.00 1.00 .67 4.11 .50 .58 .42 1.00 .67 .80 .80 .80 .60 1.00 4.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 1.00 3.00 .60 .80 0 1.00 1.00 3.07 3.17 3.40 Total Rating 7.15 8.45 10.40 ^efer to Diagram 3. 43 Footnotes R. J . Dubos, "Man Adapting: His Limitations and Potent ia l i t ies , " Environment for Man: The Next F i f t y Years, ed. W. R. Ewald, J r . , (Bloom-ington and London: Indiana University Press, 1967), pp. 17-20. 2W. R. Ewald, Environment for Man: The Next F i f t y Years. (Bloom-ington and London: Indiana University Press, 1967), p. 3. L . Mumford, The City i n History. (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, Inc . , 1961), p. 7. ^Paul Goodman and Percival Goodman, Communitas. (New York: V i n -tage Books, 1947), pp. 88-93. -'E. T. H a l l , The Hidden Dimension. (Garden C i t y , New York: Doubleday and Company, Inc . , 1966), 201 p. Dubos, op. c i t . . p. 16. 7 American Public Health Association, Committee on the Hygiene of Housing, Planning the Neighbourhood. (Chicago: Public Administration Service, 1948 and 1960), chap. 2. ^Mumford, op. c i t . . p. 75. Q I b i d . . p. 462. B. J . Frieden, The Future of Old Neighbourhoods. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M . I . T . Press, 1964), pp. 2-3. S. D. Clark. The Suburban Society. (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1966), p. 52-59. 1 2 W . M. Dobriner, Class i n Suburbia. (Englewood C l i f f s , New Jersey: Prentice Hal l Inc . , 1963), pp. 64-67. 1 3 Clark, op. c i t . . pp. 31-32. ^ J . R. Wolforth, Residential Location and the Place of Work4 (Vancouver: Tantalus Research Limited, 1965), pp. 73-76. ^Greater London Council, Planning of a New Town. (London: The Council, 1965), chaps. 1 and 2. 1 J . Gottmann, "The Rising Demand for Urban Amenities," Planning  for a Nation of C i t i e s , ed. S. R. Warner, J r . , (Cambridge, Mass.: The M . I . T . Press, 1966), p. 175. 1V Wolforth, op. c i t . , pp. 31-36. l 8 I b i d . . p. 76. 44 19 Community and Regional Planning Studies, Residential Land Sub-division; A Physical Evaluation. Division of Community and Regional Planning, Faculty of Graduate Studies, University of British Columbia, (Vancouver: by the Division, 1965), p. 61. 2 0Ibid.. p. 67. 2 1Ibid., p. 68. 6, CHAPTER III THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE VARIABLE Introduction Population age structure refers to the distribution of individuals according to age in a specified group of persons. Age is a primary deter-minant of societal roles ascribed to and acquired by the individuals. The spectrum of roles is provided when an adequate number of individuals in each age group is present in the populationj a deficiency in the number of members in any age group represents a potential deficiency in role performance and a surplus of members leads to aggressive competition for the right to perferm roles. Consequently, a balanced population age i structure i s desirable for the proper functioning of society. The definition of a "balanced" age structure is problematic in the modem context, especially in industrial societies. The system of roles that was worked out by societies has been upset by changes in demographic processes and changes in technology which have eliminated many economic roles and created a host of new ones. Indirectly, cultural roles have experienced change due to their integration and mutual dependence with economic roles. Thompson has identified five national population age structures, three of which are transitional and one which is inevitably 2 upset by industrialization. Only the national type, found in United 45 46 States and north-western Europe, provides demographic stability. Even in these instances, significant regional differences are observed. Areas of rapid growth in industrial nations, such as metropolitan Vancouver, have transitional population age structures. Changing demographic processes and technical development will ensure the continuance of change in soci-etal roles. Consequently, i t is argued that the definition of a balanced age structure in the metropolitan Vancouver context is a theoretical problem: the issue at hand is determining the implications of varying degrees of unbalance in the population age structure. This section is constituted by; (a) an overview of role definition by age; (b) a discus-sion of the demographic processes which determine population age structure and changes in i t ; and (c) a discussion of suburbanization as a generator of distinctive population age structures. The Functions of Population Age Structure An individual's age is a biological factor which determines his capacity to perform in society. The physical ability to secure food and shelter is restricted to the "productive" years, about fifteen to sixty-3 four, in nearly every economic system. However, industrial society shortens this period by the requirement for extensive training before the individual's skills are marketable. The length of training varies accord-ing to the destined occupation. The age of i n i t i a l employment in metro-politan areas ranges from about fifteen to thirty. At the other end of the scale, early retirement removes individuals from productive activities at an earlier age than in non-industrial societies. Ages below and above the productive period are normally defined as dependents.^ The number of years of schooling is steadily increasing, which 5 effectively keeps individuals out of the labour force until an older age. 47 As the minimum age of leaving school is sixteen years, and many remain in school until their mid-twenties, the fifteen year upper limit to the youth dependency group contains substantial bias for a l l population under con-sideration. Nineteen years, the next higher break in the census data, contains bias also, but i t is deemed to be a better indicator of the de-pendency ages, particularly since employed offspring tend to leave the nuclear family's suburban home. Differences between role assignment and acquisition according to socio-economic class are noticeable in quality or intensity of role prep-aration rather than in preparation for distinctive roles at the early ages. For example, a gi r l in the British Properties might take music or dancing lessons and a g i r l in Fraserview might have regular baby sitting duties. Both activities prepare the individual for selection of a mate and acceptance in the adult world.^ These are critical years, hov/ever, and determine the individual's attitude and his ability to act out his 7 roles. Divergence of role assignment takes place in the late teens. At this age the individual from a working class home is under greater pres-sure to leave school and take a job. Conversely, the individual in the upper socio-economic bracket is under substantial pressure to continue g his formal education and select a career. Divergence according to sex also occurs. A greater number of females than males marry and leave their parent's home. The divergence of role selection through time, according to socio-economic status and sex continues until the critical roles, both cultural and economic, have been fixed. This process is normally completed between the ages twenty and thirty. The average age of marriage was 25.8 years Q for females and 28.8 years for males in British Columbia in 1965. The age of marriage increases as the level of socio-economic class increases. 48 Further, the number of children in the family decreases as the level of 10 socio-economic class increases. The age of i n i t i a l employment i s dif-fuse; i t varies markedly in any class but a higher average age is associ-ated with the higher socio-economic class. Cultural and economic role selection provide the desire and finan-cial ability for the individual to be independent from his family. Substantially higher mobility is observed in the late teens and early twenties than in any other age group. For example, Peterson reports that the median age of migrants in the United States for 1949 and 1950 ranged 11 from 19.8 to 30.5 years. The samples under study have family accommoda-tion primarily. In the absence of suitable accommodation for "unattached" persons, these individuals are encouraged to leave the sample areas. Therefore, i t might be expected that there is a decline in percentage of the relevant age groups in these populations through time. That i s , the percentage of individuals in the 15 to 19 year age groups in 1961 would decline by 1966 and be observable as a lower percentage of individuals in the 20 to 24 year age group in the latter census. In addition, this per-centage should vary according to sex and socio-economic characteristics, between samples; i t should be higher for females and the lower socio-economic class. Family formation i s related to the age at which social and economic groups set up another generation of nuclear families at a younger age. By the mid-thirties, approximately, family formation for a l l populations is completed. Similarly, the geographic mobility and changes in employ-ment decrease dramatically, producing a stable population. The equilibrium is not upset until the individuals approach retire-ment, when the children begin leaving home and the cycle is repeatte^ d. "At this age the individual's role is altered from active participation in 49 community and economic l i f e to inactive or semi-active participation. The above discussion indicates that population age structure affects how groups of people select and perform major l i f e roles and why various groups perform differently. In this way, population age structure might be regarded as a determinant of any given population's quality. Conversely, the quantity of individuals in the population is determined by the demographic processes of f e r t i l i t y , mortality and migration. Since the number of individuals in the various cohorts determines the adequacy of role performance, the demographic characteristics are vital data in understanding aggregate behaviour. Fertility refers to the addition of individuals to the population by birth. The number of births is a function of the age of the adult females and their marital status. The impact of these factors is shown in Table 3. TABLE 3 FERTILITY RATES, BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1965a Age Group 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 4 0 - 4 4 Rate/1000 Total Women 63.9 186.2 166.6 102.4 51.4 15.0 Rate/1000 Married Women 545.4 264.7 182.1 106.8 53.2 15.6 aDominion Bureau of Statistics, Vital Statistics. (Ottawa: The Bureau, 1967), Table B6 and B7. The f e r t i l i t y rate for young married females is substantially higher than 50 the other f e r t i l i t y rates. This explains the tendency for lower socio-economic classes, who marry younger, to have larger families. The fe r t i l i t y rate per 1000 married women is consistently higher than the corresponding rate for total *romen. Since suburban areas are constituted predominately by married couples, they have a higher number of births per unit population than the entire metropolitan area. However, in an indus-t r i a l society, most families are completed when the female reaches the age thirty-nine, as is indicated by the sharp reduction in the f e r t i l i t y rate after this age, in Table 3. Mortality refers to the removal of individuals from a population by death. In contrast to f e r t i l i t y , which adds individuals only at age zero, mortality removes them at a l l ages. However, the rates vary marked-ly according to age and sex. The rate increases sharply after age sixty 12 and is somewhat higher for males. This factor reflects, in part, the males' greater exposure to accidental deaths and deaths related to "ten-sion" diseases, such as heart attacks. Differentiation according to socio-economic class is slight and the typically small numbers in the upper age groups in suburbia make mortality rates a relatively less im-portant determinant of suburban population age structure. This fact is augmented by migration to and from suburban areas. Dennis Wrong describes the "multiplier" effect of in-migration, whereby the age structure of the migrants produces high fe r t i l i t y and low 13 mortality rates. The young adults are highly over-represented. For example, men in the twenty-five to thirty-four year age group were 7.5 percent of the total American population in 1950 and they accounted for 12.4 percent of the migration. Other pertinent characteristics of migrants are that they over-represent higher educational attainment and high incone 14 brackets. As a consequence, any area that encourages in-migration, such 51 as a suburban area under development, tends to have populations that over-represent these characteristics. After a "settling in" period, most suburbs experience a certain amount of out-migration of young families. This is related to employee transfers and dissatisfaction with the accom-modation. Clark observed that the replacement population tends to be 15 slightly older. The major age groups of the out-migrants are the adult children and, to a lesser extent, older couples or individuals who do not have any children at home. In summary, the demographic processes affect the suburban population age structure in the following ways: in-migration provides a dispropor-tionately high number of young married couples in the child rearing stage. Fertility is very high, augmenting the lowest age groups. Although mor-tality removes members predominantly from the older age groups, i t i s not deemed to have a significant impact on the age structure because these groups are typically under-represented. There is some out-migration of young families and the replacement population might be somewhat older. Major out-migration involves the adult offspring of suburban families and, eventually, a number of aging couples and individuals. The net impact of these processes i s to form the uniquely suburban population age structure in which married couples and their dependent children are over-represented. The final variable in determining the suburban population age structure i s the history of construction of the physical facilities. Modern construction procedures favour concentrating activity in one area, resulting in "instant and package" subdivisions.^ The result is a very sharply bimodal population age structure. Fraserview in Vancouver is an example. It was developed in the early fifties in response to the acute shortage of housing for World War Two veterans and their families. About 1100 units, virtually the entire Fraserview sample, were built and 52 occupied within a period of four years. Diagram 5 shows the sharply bimodal population age structure associated with this construction experi-ence. In contrast, i n i t i a l construction in the West Point Grey sample occurred in the late twenties. Only a few units were built at this time and subsequent development has been by "infil l i n g " of vacant lots. Dia-gram 6 shows the subdued bimodal age structure associated with this construction experience. The period of construction, in contrast to the length of time dur-ing which construction occurred, determines the location of the modal age groups. For example, the adult male modal age group is 35 to 44 years, 1966, for the British Properties sample, which was constructed mainly between 1955 and the present; in contrast, the corresponding modal age group is 45 to 54 years for Fraserview. The explanation for the impact of suburban construction on age structure lies in the co-ordination of accommodation need to accommodation supply. That i s , the occupants of a new suburb are always over-represented by the segment of the population experiencing the greatest need for this type of accommodation - young married couples. Therefore, subdivisions constructed at different times have different generations of young married couples. A subdivision which is constructed over a long period of time contains several different "cohorts" of young married couples. Population Age Structure in the Sample Areas The above section has indicated the functions of population age structure as a determinant of role selection and role performance, with particular reference to the implications of an unbalanced population age structure. A picture of the general relationships between population age structure and suburban sites might be synthesized from this discussion. 53 On the other hand, an empirical picture of the sample suburban areas can be synthesized from demographic data. The objective of this section is to compare the general picture to the specific picture provided by the samples, in order to determine the relevant aspects of the population characteristics for correlation to the site quality variable. Population age structure might be regarded as a continuum formed by the demographic processes of fert i l i t y , in-migration, out-migration and mortality. In an established population, f e r t i l i t y provides the basic number of individuals for each age group. This number is increasingly modified by the other demographic processes in proportion to the length of time i t is exposed to them. The process of suburbanization and the limitations of the suburb on its population provide further constraints on the formation of the population age structure by influencing the loca-tion of the quantitative differential on the age structure continuum and determining its cyclic character through time. Differential demographic processes are experienced between suburban populations according to the population's socio-economic characteristics. This differential is quanti-tative, and i t is evident by age group or age group and sex. Diagram L\ is a synopsis of the demographic processes and the relevant differentials that might be expected in a suburban population. Fertility and in-migration provide quantitative differentials in the in-fant age groups. Out-migration occurs at different rates for the adult offspring by age group and sex. It is expected that socio-economic sorting takes place in this stage. Although the preponderant number of 17 children eventually attains the father's socio-economic status, there is some intergenerational upward and downward mobility. After marriage, the adult offspring locates in a suburb that offers the accommodation he can afford. This reflects the socio-economic status he has attained. The 54 DIAGRAM 4 SYNOPSIS: POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE VARIABLE Demographic Processes Population Age Structure Quantitative Differential By Socio-Econo-mic Class Quantifying Instruments Fertility In Migration Out Migration In Migration Out Migration and Mortality 15 - 19 )\ £0 - 24 \ 25 - 34 , I , 65 - 69 * I 70 + Age Groups Age Groups and Sex Age Groups and Sex Indeterminant Percent and Youth De-pendency Ratio Percent and Sex Ratio Percent and Sex Ratio N/A 55 in-migration of this age group, approximating the 25 to 34- year census breakdown, provides the base adult populations for new suburbs and the replacement stock for the established suburbs. This process occurs dif-ferentially for age group and sex. Out-migration and mortality are the demographic determinants of the aging couples and individuals. The case for differential between socio-economic classes is indeterminantj an investigation of this factor is warranted. However, such an investigation would require a broader base and greater time span than is provided by the samples for this study. Having in mind the limited resources, this investigation cannot be carried out at this time. Therefore, the case for differential in the adult dependent age groups i s not considered. Final-ly, i t i s noted that the above processes would be fundamentally altered by stabilization of the demographic processes in the metropolitan Vancouver area. The unbalance in age structure observable in the samples will be 18 reduced as the areas mature and demographic cycles work themselves out. The Dominion Bureau of Statistics 1 data for population numbers by age group and sex, and by Enumeration District are the most useful source within the limitations of this study. This material is provided on "I.B.M. printouts" for 1961 and 1966 only, and the numbers and percentage calculations are on Tables 8 to 10. They are presented pictorially by "population pyramids" on Diagram 5 to 7 . These data impose a number of limitations on the theoretical number of manipulations presented on Diagram 4. The data do not identify the population resident in both 1961 and 1966, preventing differentiation between fe r t i l i t y and in-migration or mortality and out-migration. Therefore, no absolute values for these processes can be derived. The time span, five years, does not encompass the entire "suburban" f e r t i l i t y cycle; in addition the effects of date, of 56 construction and length of time of construction have not been held con-stant, resulting in the samples being in different stages of the "sub-urban" f e r t i l i t y cycle at any given time. For example, the modal age groups, which correspond to the peak of the f e r t i l i t y cycle, were 10 to 14. years for British Properties and 15 to 19 years for Fraserview in 1966. The undesirable effects of this factor can be largely offset by relating the total f e r t i l i t y to the number of adults participating ih family rear-ing at a point in time. This type of statistical manipulation, a youth dependency ratio, includes most of the f e r t i l i t y cycles in each area and provides for comparison of relative values at specified times. However, this leads to another major problem. The age groups must be related to demographic processes. This necessitates arbitrary divisions which approximate but do not correspond to reality. It is decided that the optimal divisions are; (a) 0 to 19 years, dependent offsprings; (b) 20 to 24 years, adult offsprings and (c) 25 to 64 years, parents. Ages 65 and above are not directly involved 19 in these manipulations in accordance with a previous decision. Any division, in a l l probability, will contain individuals from another divi-sion. However, the error is made consistently. Values for the samples, relative to each other can be approximated, and a rank ordering of these values can be established based on these age group divisions, although the absolute values are invalid. In any event, the position for this study i s , that differential in population age structure is observable according to site quality; therefore, i t is adequate to define the dif-ferential, no matter what the processes are that generate i t . Within the confines of the above remarks the following manipula-tions are feasible: (a) Divide the number of people in the 0 to 19 year age group by 57 the number in the 25 to 64 year age group and multiply by 100. This pro-vides a youth dependency ratio and a comparison between number of infants to number of adults of employable age by area and for 1961 and 1966. This youth dependency ratio i s not congruent to the definition normally used by demo graphe r s.^ (b) Subtract the percent of individuals in the 20 to 24 year age group for 1966 from the percent in the 15 to 19 year age group for 1961 and divide by five. The provides a net rate of relative decline in a five year age group over a five year period in the part of the population age structure continuum that normally experiences higher rates of out-migra-tion. (c) Establish the ratio of males per 100 females for the 20 to 24 year age group by sample and for 1961 and 1966. This establishes a sex ratio for a group of people experiencing high out-migration with quantita-tive differential by sex and by socio-economic class. (d) Reduce the five sets of calculation derived by operations (a) to (c) to an index by assigning the West Point Grey sample the value of seven decimal five and reducing the values for the other two samples relative to i t . This facilitates comparison between the trends in each measure of quantitative differential and application of correlation manip-ulations in Chapter ?. (e) Average the indices to provide one measure for correlation of a l l measured aspects of population age structure to allow correlation to the site quality variable. The results from calculations (a) to (e) are on Table 7. The average index and its component indices are used for correlation to the site quality variable in Chapter V. TABLE 4 THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE VARIABLE: INDICES OF QUANTITATIVE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN SAMPLES8, Item Date Rates and Ratios Indices: West Point Grey = 7.50 Sample West Point British West Point British Fraserview Grey Properties Fraserview Grey Properties Youth Dependency Ratio; 1961 134 72 92 13.95 7.50 9.58 # ages 0 to 19 divided by # ages 25 to 64 times 100. 1966 111 76 95 10.85 7.50 9.38 Rate of Proportionate De-crease per Year; % age 15 1961 to 7<- ,„ to 19 in 1961 minus % age 1966 * ° 2 0 to 2 4 in 1966 divided by 5. .47 11.95 7.50 7.50 Sex Ratio for 20 to 2 4 1961 123 111 98 8.31 7.50 6.62 Years Age Group; # males per 100 females. 1966 134 126 113 7.98 7.50 6 .73 Average Index of Quanti-tative Differential. 10.61 7.50 7196 Calculated from: Tables 8 to 10 59 Footnotes •i Greater London Council, Planning of a New Town. (London: The Council, 1965), chap. 3. W^. S. Thompson and D. T. Lewis, Population Problems. (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1 9 6 5 ) , pp. 109-113. W^m. Peterson, Population. (New York: The MacMillan Co., 1 9 6 5 ) , pp. 76-83. T^hompson and Lewis, op. ci t . . pp. 93-98. 5 Economic Council of Canada, Towards Sustained and Balanced Economic  Growth. Second Annual Review, (Ottawa!Queen's Printer, 1965), table 4-1. J. R. Seeley, R. A. Sim, and E. W. Loosley, Crestwood Heights. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1956), pp. 91-100. 7 J. E. Robbins, "The Home and Family Background of Ottawa Public School Children in Relation to Their I.Q.'s," Canadian Society, ed. B. R. Blishen et. al.. (Toronto: The MacMillan Co. of Canada Ltd., 1961), g Seeley, Sim and Loosley, op. cit.. pp. 1 2 5 and 131. ^Canada, Vital Statistics. (Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1965), table M-2. 1 0K. B. Mayer, Class and Society. (New York: Random House, 1955), pp. 48-51. 11 Peterson, op. ci t . . p. 593. 12 Canada, op. cit.. table F. 13 D. H. Wrong, Population and Society. (New York: Random House, 1956), p. 98. 1 W^. H. Whyte, Jr., The Organization Man. (Garden City, New York: Doubleday, Anchor Books, 1957), p. 298. S. D. Clark. The Suburban Society. (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1966), p. 86. l6Whyte, op. cit.. pp. 295 and 312-15. 17 Mayer, op. cit., p. 71. 18 London County Council, op. cit.. figure 9. 1 9Refer to text, p. 55. 20 Thompson and Lewis, op. cit.. p. 90-91 CHAPTER IV ZONING: AN EXOGENOUS VARIABLE Introduction The case for zoning is based on i t s record as an instrument of land use control and its legitimate place in the planning process. When dis-cussing modern land use controls, Professor Haar has stated that ". . . i t (zoning) is in fact the work horse of the planning movement in the country (United States).""' On the other hand, zoning has been condemned for its 2 "gross ineptness" when administered in the absence of an official plan. The city of Vancouver and most of its suburban areas have used zoning as a major method of land use control in the absence of an official plan. Consequently, the impact of zoning deserves investigation to determine its effectiveness or "ineptness", whichever the case might be. Zoning might be defined as a public control of the private use of land. By controlling "use, bulk and height" i t limits in specified ways the type and quality of improvement applicable to a site. The geographi-cal extent of a zone, on the other hand, might influence a site's quality of location. In these ways, zoning appears to be an exogenous variable to the relationship under study. The purpose of this chapter is to explore the experience with zoning in metropolitan Vancouver. This chap-ter outlines the historical antecedents of zoning and zoning by-laws in 60 61 practice, and is concluded by an analysis of zoning in metropolitan Van-couver, as i t affects the subject of this study. The Historical Antecedents The antecedents of zoning are the European building regulations of the nineteenth century which were developed during the rapid urban growth 3 associated with the Industrial Revolution. Land use controls became important in London when the owners of certain large estates granted long term leases for urban development, in preference to plotting and alienat-ing their property. Restrictive covenants were often used to specify the type, density and quality of development. An example is Regent Park. Nash drew up plans in 1812 in accordance with the Regent's wishes that his estates be developed "for residential purposes, though without being crowded with the buildings. He particularly wanted a large new park ac-cessible to the inhabitants of the city."^ In this way, land use controls were an instrument of estate management, regulating and maintaining prop-erty according to the wishes of the land owner. In contrast, land use controls were developed in Paris during Napoleon I l l ' s reign, 184.8-70, as instruments of "population control" and in order to provide access to the central city. Two of Baron Haussmann's four principles of development dealt specifically with riot and revolt. Al l four principles dealt in some measure with movement within the city 5 and the last concerned access to the city centre by the railroad. The Paris land use controls were legislated, administered and financed by the national government. A plan v/as prepared providing for the amalgamation of the rapidly growing suburbs and for a system of parks. Subsequently, many cities throughout the world implemented Haussmann's ideas, with how-ever only limited success. Giedion pointed out that no one had Haussmann's 62 power "to attempt a general attack upon the new problem of the city (growth induced by industrialization)." Land use controls were established in Holland under the Dutch Hous-ing Act of 1901. This act required every city of 10,000 population, or more, to prepare a plan for its growth with decennial revisions and to expropriate the amount of land required for its growth. The land was granted to industries and housing corporations under long term leases and restrictive covenants for development. In this way, the Dutch land use controls resembled the early English system, except that the municipali-ties, rather than the "landed gentry," held the land and managed i t . The development of land use controls is associated with urban growth stimulated by industrialization. The rate of growth and the size and complexity of the industrial cities precluded co-ordination of land uses except by central authority. The early English system was workable but incremental. The other extreme was the redevelopment of Paris under Haussmann, which was comprehensive and regional in concept but unworkable in the absence of an extremely powerful and autocratic political system. The Dutch Housing Act was a balance of the French and English systems and has proven to be comprehensive, workable and effective. The three systems of land use controls were devised to organize and to control urban growth as well as to control conflicts between land use. Administrative techniques to apply land use controls were developed in the German cities between 1890 and 1915. Exceptionally detailed in-structions controlling height, bulk and setback of structures, the design of streets and the location of various land uses existed in Berlin and Munich by the outbreak of World War I. Cities in the Scandinavian coun-tries and a few in England, such as Sheffield, followed suit. However, English by-laws had greater flexibility and provision for relief from their 63 regulations in unusual circumstances.^ The United States, where the concept of zoning evolved to its present character, had had minimal experience with land use controls by the first decade of the twentieth century. The American constitution quite explicitly protected the individual's rights in the land, and i t appeared that any controls imposed by governments would be found unconsti-tutional. However, the fire regulations, which controlled height accord-ing to street width and building materials according to district, were a precedent. Interest in "districting", as the European by-laws were known, developed when the vexing problems associated with the growth of New York City demanded concerted action by the municipal government. Consequently, a study of the European experience with land use controls was carried out in 1913 and the first zoning by-law in the United States was implemented in 1916.9 The situation in New York City, giving rise to the need for zoning, was related to subway construction to the core area. Increased accessi-bi l i t y stimulated "skyscraper" construction. Under the pre-zoning situ-ation, these structures could occupy the entire lot from the ground to the roof. Extreme cases of cornices occurred jutting in excess of ten feet over the street. The net result was the turning of the streets into 10 dark, airless and severely congested canyons. On the "suburban" end of the subway, the problem was the invasion of residential areas by indus-tries and commercial establishments, and the development of tenement type apartment structures. Edward Bassett, who headed the commission responsi-ble for drafting New York's zoning by-law, stated that "No landowner in any part of the city would erect a building of any sort with assurance that in ten or twenty years the building would not be obsolete by reason 11 of unnecessary and undesirable change in the neighbourhood." 64 Development of the zoning by-law stemmed from three recognized urban needs. These were - to control congestion, to set a minimum stand-ard of environmental quality and to maintain property values and the func-tional viability of development. The critical problem was the development of an administrative technique that would satisfy the urban needs and would be constitutional. The law of Eminent Domain, which refers to the rights in property held by the land owner and which is guaranteed by the American Constitution, satisfied these criteria. Under this law, i t is necessary to purchase some of the rights from the property owner in order to implement land use controls. In practice, i t is excessively expensive and unwieldy and,,except for the purchase of air rights on approaches to airports, this technique is not now employed. The alternative to the law of Eminent Domain is the state police power which regulates activity in the interest of "health, safety, morals, comfort, convenience and welfare 12 of the community." During the 1920's the American federal government encouraged enabling enactments by the state legislatures and in most states these were forthcoming upon application by an interested munici-pality. The effect of basing the by-law on police powers was to emphasize the necessity to reduce adverse spillovers between types of land uses. This can be accomplished readily by encouraging a single type of use in each area. Thus provision of extensive areas with one zoned use was fre-quently practiced. Implementation of theearly by-laws were fraught with uncertainty regarding their constitutionality. The practice was to devise a very modest by-law that would provide adequate land use control to justify implementation, but would not precipitate a challenge before the courts. All sites with commercial or industrial potential were normally zoned as such. No attempt was made to inaugurate zones to preclude a l l types of 65 marketable developments. In this way the charge that developmental poten-t i a l use being curtailed by the by-law would not arise. The result, in 1 3 practice, was to provide "overzoning" for nearly every category. The well known case of Village of Euclid vs Ambler Realty Co.. 1926. was the test case which substantially established and clarified the functions of zoning by-laws in the United States. The defendant averred that the ordinance attempts to restrict and control the law-ful uses of (the defendant's) land so as to confiscate and destroy a great part of its value . . . * In setting aside an appeal by the defendant, the United States Supreme Court maintained that the scope of application of constitutional princi-ples must "expand or contract to meet new and different conditions," 15 although the meaning of these principles must never vary. In addition, the court confirmed that such by-laws must find their justification in 16 police powers and be "asserted for the public welfare." This decision encouraged the application of more effective land use controls and rein-forced the development of the by-laws primarily as a regulator of " s p i l l -over" effects. Zoning By-Laws in Practice More than f i f t y years have elapsed since the inauguration of the fir s t zoning by-laws During this time, a number of innovations have been applied to sharpen the instrument and provide more flexibility. However, its character has been essentially retained. Recent critics have attacked zoning both for what i t has accomplished and what i t has failed to accom-plish. The pervasive monotony of suburbia is related to the very limited size, location and design of any building in many single family residen-t i a l zones. On the other hand, areas being developed by "infilling" or zoning by-laws designed to reflect local desires often resemble "Joseph's 66 17 coat." However, the problem does not concern the v i a b i l i t y of the zoning instrument; Dennis 0'Harrow points out that not a single urban community with zoning . . .would repeal the ordinance and t ry to get along without zoning. Rather the problem l i e s i n establishing the place of zoning i n the plan-ning process. The fundamental alternatives are that zoning should be a process complementary to planning; or that zoning should be integrated into the planning process. Zoning, treated as a complementary process, requires the establishment of a code or set of principles i n relation to which decisions can be made. I n i t i a l l y , the by-laws were drafted to ref lect the uses existing at the time of inauguration. After the need for comprehen-sive zoning became obvious, undeveloped land was zoned to approximate to a concept of the future c i t y ' s form. Beyond these rudimentary devices, decisions for zoning became problematic. The principles must contain adequate f l e x i b i l i t y to provide r e l i e f i n unusual circumstances, while ensuring protection for development under the by-law. In addition, zoning i s unique under common-law nations, i n that i t i s a public control over the private use of land. The unusual character of this by-law and i t s implications are given a "satety value," that i s a zoning appeal board. There has been a tendency for some boards to make decisions on "the merits of the case." On the surface, this seems to beg the question; i t i s necessary to define, or at least enumerate, the "merits." In addition, c r i t e r i a must be set up to evaluate the "merits." In practice, this system i s maintained by the "comparative movelties (of) f loating zoning 19 or site plan approval procedure," and i s found to be unsatisfactory. A solution i s to prepare an o f f i c i a l plan as a basis for zoning decisions. In the absence of an o f f i c i a l plan, there i s a tendency for zoning 67 to function as a plan, as well as a land use control. An official plan sets out the guidelines for development and these guidelines are imple-mented by zoning. In this way, zoning is effectively integrated into the planning process. An advantage of such integration is the opportunity to co-ordinate and support the zoning by-law with subdivision regulations and building by-laws. The problem has been the resistance by councils to official plans. Metropolitan Toronto council has been debating various draft official plans since 1958, and the City of Vancouver has yet to authorize preparation of an up to date draft official plan. A zoning by-law directs the activities of the public; an official plan directs the activities of councils, and herein lies the crux. In Ontario, for example, a council i s not allowed to adopt a zoning by-law which contravenes the official plan. This restricts the discretionary powers of council and encourages the use of draft official plans, or no plans at a l l . The viability of zoning by-laws is being seriously questioned under the existing conditions. John Reps maintains that "zoning is seriously i l l . . . (in the United States)" and enumerates ten major deficiencies. His suggestions for remedial action include allowance for broad discre-tionary powers in municipal officials, guided by an official plan. The preparation of an official plan and periodic revisions would be made 20 mandatory by the state. In summary, the necessary remedial action re-quires legislation by a senior level of government to make zoning, in conjunction with an official plan, an obligatory service by the munici-pality. In addition, the zoning by-law must be given adequate scope and flexibility to accommodate the complex needs of the modern metropolis. Detailed recommendations for such a by-law have been made by the Zoning 21 Study Committee of the Royal Architectural Institute of Canada. 68 Zoning As It Affects the Site Quality and Population Age Structure Variables When a zoning by-law was first considered for the City of Vancou-ver, the municipal area did not include any of the sample areas. A subsequent amalgamation in 1929 of the municipalities of Point Grey and South Vancouver extended the boundaries of the city to their present location. At that time the zoning by-law was made applicable to the amalgamated areas as well as to the original city. The British Properties sample is located in the District of West Vancouver, and a separate by-law applies to i t . In 1927, the City of Vancouver contracted with Harland Bartholomew 22 and Associates for the preparation of a zoning by-law and a tovm plan. A two year study was carried out by a series of committees consisting of various civic officials and representatives from the consulting firm. An amalgam of fact and technical advice, provided by the consultants, and recommendations by the civic officials was the basis for the adopted by-law. The by-law was constituted by regulations for land use types and structural design. The designation of land use types by area was based on a detailed survey of existing developments. Unoccupied land was asses-sed according to its potential for commercial and industrial purposes and, to some extent, the need for additional acreage for various uses was con-sidered. Accordingly, the allocation of uses by the zoning by-law was made as shown on Table 5 . A substantial amount of residential land with potential for commercial or industrial uses was zoned according to its potential. For example, Broadway (Ninth Avenue) was zoned commercial throughout seventy percent of its length. The unoccupied land was zoned for single family residential uses, primarily. Bartholomew reports . . . the one-family dwelling is the desirable unit for happy living is the general consensus . . . of a l l authorities. * 69 No further allocations of vacant land for park purposes were made, which resulted in the sharp drop in the percentage of land provided for this purpose. TABLE 5 a ALLOCATION OF LAND USE BY ZONING BY-LAW CITY OF VANCOUVER, 1928 Land Use Survey Zoning By-Law Land Use Percent (est.)® Percent: Industrial 11.4 19.3 Commercial 3.0 5.6 Residential 30.0 32.8 Institutional 5.5 -Streets 29.2 29.2 Parks 18.0 13.1 Discrepancy in Estimating Procedure 2.9 Totals 100.0 100.0 Calculated from Harland Bartholomew and Associates, A Plan for the City of Vancouver. (Vancouver, Vancouver City Council, 1928), p. 226. The zoning by-law allows total occupancy of the land and the Land Use category must be according to total occupancy to be comparable to i t . Thus, the "Unoccupied" category has been eliminated. Since some street acreage under "Land Use Survey" served unoccupied land, i t was necessary to estimate a l l percentages In this column, based on the assumption that the proportion of street acreage serving unoccupied land to the acreage of unoccupied land equalled the proportion of street acreage serving occupied land to the acreage of occupied land. Refer to Bartholomew, ibid.. plate 50. The regulations for structural design in the by-law sought to • eliminate the construction of objectionable structures. The criteria used were based on an estimation of desirable densities, provision of fresh 70 air and sunlight, and safety from fire. In contrast to regulation of land use which accommodated nearly a l l existing development, the regu-lations for structural design created a number of non-conforming uses. Finally, a Board of Appeal was recommended by the report to provide relief in cases of unusual circumstances.^ Subsequent zoning by-laws have refined the regulations set out in the i n i t i a l instrument to allow greater precision in land use control. However, i t is remarkable how l i t t l e the most recent by-laws deviate from the geographical distribution and restriction on structural design for single family residential zoning, as recommended in the original report. For example, the minimum lot area in most cases is s t i l l 4,800 square feet and the maximum height of the structure remains at 35 feet for RS-1 zoning. The fundamental change has been the reorientation of zoning in the plan-ning process. The Bartholomew plan of 1928 provided an official plan to guide the Board of Appeal in consideration of applications for relief from the by-law. The official plan has been allowed to lapse. Presently, zoning appears to function as a land use control that is complementary to the planning process rather than an integral part of i t . The experience of the District of West Vancouver parallels that of the City of Vancouver as outlined above. The crutial difference was the commissioning of a draft official plan for the municipality in 1958. The 25 document was prepared and presented to council. However, only a few sections were adopted. The intransigent attitude of the council with regard to this document stemmed from the restrictions placed on i t by the Municipal Act, in the opinion of an official of the District's Plan-ning Department. He pointed out that Section 699 of the Municipal Act does not commit the council to the projects in an official plan. But the council is prevented from taking any action contrary to or in variance 71 with the official plan without having i t amended by the Lieutenant-Gover-26 nor in Council. The system is found to be unwieldy. Thus, in the absence of certainty regarding most recommendations in the draft official plan, the council of the District of West Vancouver refuses to adopt i t in total. However, this plan is being used regularly as a guideline for zoning decisions. In summary, the experience with zoning in metropolitan Vancouver approximates the general experience in North America. The by-laws are substantially out of date and they are not used in conjunction with an effective official plan. The exception is the Municipality of Richmond where a remarkably effective zoning by-law is in force and i t is used to implement an official plan. The by-laws in other metropolitan municipal-ities are, to varying degrees, defective. The critical problem appears to be that the provision and maintenance of an official plan an a zoning by-law are at the discretion of the municipality under the existing munic-ipal act. There does not appear to be any simple remedy. As indicated above, councils should be allowed to retain their discretionary powers; at the same time, they should be encouraged to treat zoning as an integral part of the planning process and as a method for implementing an official plan. The history of the zoning by-laws reveals the processes which generated the need for a land use control instrument and gave i t form. These processes were observable in metropolitan Vancouver, and the by-law was imported from the United States only twelve years after i t was first implemented in New York City in 1916. Consequently, a l l units in the sample areas were constructed according to zoning regulations, except for a few units in the West Point Grey sample. The zoning by-laws for the City of Vancouver allocated single 72 family residential zoning, RS-1, to a broad belt of land extending from the University Endowment Lands to Boundary Road. Ancillary uses, such as schools, parks and churches were allowed to develop in RS-1 zones. Sub-urban commercial zones were provided at intersections of major streets in the West Point Grey sample. In contrast, suburban commercial and local commercial zones were located on major streets, but positioned to provide a high level of convenience to the people in the Fraserview sample. The major effect of zoning allocations in this manner was to ensure the devel-opment of extensive areas of single family dwellings. A l l other types of residential uses, as well as most non-residential uses, have been excluded. However, industries were allowed to develop along the Fraser River adja-cent to the Fraserview sample. As previously mentioned, any land with industrial potential was zoned accordingly. Juxtaposition of industrial uses to residential areas is no longer considered undesirable, provided the quality of the industry is controlled by a "performance-standard zon-27 ing." Unfortunately, the city zoning by-laws have not provided adequate control for the industrial development adjacent to the Fraserview sample. Adverse qualities of location, as assessed in Chapter II of this study, have resulted. The British Properties sample developed according to single family residential zoning, under the Zoning By-Law of the District of West Van-couver. Ancillary uses are allowed in the single family residential zone, but not non-residential uses. There are no commercial or industrial zoned lands in the sample or adjacent to i t . The same considerations that re-sulted in single family zoning in the Fraserview and West Point Grey samples apply to the British Properties. However, i t appears that topog-raphy and natural amenity were considered in allocating single family zoning to this area. The slope of the land precludes many industrial and 73 commercial uses. In addition, the slope limits the flexibility of road design, which encourages large residential lots. The single family resi-dential zoning in this sample regulates the lot size to a 12000 square foot minimum compared to 48OO square feet for Fraserview and West Point Grey. It is expected that this factor encourages the construction of more expensive homes in the British Properties samples. This would result in a higher quality of site improvement rating as established in Chap-ter II. By restricting residential development to single family structures, the zoning by-laws are responsible for certain distortions in the popu-lation age structure. As discussed in Chapter III, the non-family households are discriminated against by the type of accommodation offered in the samples. There is over-representation by dependeny children, ap-proximating the 0 to 19 years ages, and their parents, approximating the 25 to 64 year ages. In the absence of evidence indicating different degrees of impact on population age structure between sites, i t is assumed that zoning functions as a "constant" with regard to this variable. n Footnotes C. M. Haar, Land-Use Planning. (Boston: L i t t l e , Brown and Com-pany, 1 9 5 9 ) , p. 1 4 7 . 2 J . B. Milner, e d . , Cases and Materials on the Law and Administra- t ion of Community Planning. Revised Temporary Edit ion, V o l . I I , (Toronto: By the Editor ( ? ) , 1 9 5 8 ) , p. 2 6 1 . J E . M. Bassett, Zoning. (New York: Russel Sage Foundation, 1 9 3 6 ) , pp. 2 0 - 2 2 . ^"S. Giedion, Space. Time and Architecture. (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1 9 4 1 ) , p. 6 3 6 . 5 I b i d . . pp. 6 4 9 , 6 5 3 - 5 5 . 6 I b i d . . p. 6 7 8 . 7 I b i d . . pp. 6 7 6 - 7 7 . g M. Lewis, Planning the Modern C i t y . (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. , 1 9 4 9 ) , pp. 2 5 6 - 5 7 . 9 Bassett, op. c i t . . pp. 2 0 - 2 2 . 10 Lewis, op. c i t . . pp. 2 5 8 - 5 9 . 1 1 Bassett, op. c i t . . p. 2 5 . 1 2 I b i d . . p. 2 8 . 1 3 Lewis, op. c i t . . pp. 2 6 4 - 6 5 . ^^Haar, op. c i t . . p. 1 1 0 . 1 5 I b i d . . p. 161. l 6 I b i d . 1 7 R. F . Babcock, The Zoning Game. (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1 9 6 6 ) , p. 1 5 . 1 8 D. O'Harrow, "Zoning: What's the Good of It?" , Taming Megalopolis. e d . , H. W. Eldredge, (Garden C i t y , New York: Anchor Books, 1 9 6 7 ) , p. 7 6 3 . 19 J . Reps, Requiem for Zoning," Taming Megalopolis, e d . , H. W. Eldredge, (Garden City , New York: Anchor Books, 1 9 6 7 ) , p. 752. I b i d . , pp. 7 4 6 - 7 5 9 . 21 Royal Architectural Institute of Canada, "F i rs t Statement, Zoning Study Committee," ( 1 9 6 3 ) , 2 3 , p . and appendices. 2 2 H. Bartholomew and Associates, A Plan for the Ci ty of Vancouver. (Vancouver: Vancouver City Council, 1 9 2 8 ) , pp. 2 1 1 - 2 3 5 . 75 2 3 I b i d . , p. 234. 2^Ibid., p. 232. 2 W^. P. Paterson, West Vancouver Community Plan. (West Vancouver: The District of West Vancouver, 1958), 147 p. 26 Province of British Columbia, Municipal Act, 1957, c. 42, s. 1, sections 698, 699, 720. 27 Royal Architectural Institute of Canada, Ibid.. p. 11. 1 CHAPTER V CORRELATION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE VARIABLES Introduction The fundamental theme of this study is the relationship between man and his environment as defined by the components, population age structure, site quality and zoning by-laws. These aspects have been limited to three sample areas and a five year period. The investigation has involved two approaches. A review and analysis of the pertinent literature were designed to provide the background and context of the variables. In addition, they were used to establish the general nature of the relationship and identify the areas of the subject variables suit-able for statistical analysis. This approach was followed by a statisti-cal analysis designed to measure the relationship. The literature research provided a broad based investigation. In contrast, the statisti-cal analysis allowed indepth research. The integration of these approaches provides for comprehensive investigation and analysis. The objectives of this chapter are to summarize the findings of the literature research, statistically to correlate the variables, and to interpret the results and to set out the conclusions. 76 77 Summary of the Literature Research Man is related to his environment by his needs. At the simplest level of ecology, man finds nourishment and shelter in his surroundings. However, man's response is tempered by psychological needs, such as 1 security and privacy, and sociological needs, for example, status. Certain areas were found to supply needs more effectively than others. A competition ensued between social groupings for occupation of these sites. Eventually man discovered he could enhance his environment by certain controls and improvements. The innovation of agriculture and the con-struction of cities are momentous changes that have been wrought by man. Mumford succinctly explains the city's magnetic force on man as 2 "the palace, the granary, and the temple." He is referring to the effec-tive organization, production and cultural maturation made possible by the city. Greater freedom, choice and security have been associated with the city rather than with its surrounding countryside, except, perhaps, in certain Anglo-Saxon nations. However, urban growth has generated unique problems. Nearly every city in every age has had dangerously un-sanitary conditions and large criminal elements in some sections. These conditions stimulated a flight to the adjacent countryside, and the suburb was born. Throughout history, the growth of the city and its suburb has been followed repeatedly by decline. The Industrial Revolution provided the technical knowledge and stability to deal with the city's problems. In addition, the Industrial Revolution irrevocably committed world nations to the city. It became necessary for man to control and regulate his activities to ensure his survival in an urbanizing world. Instruments of regulation are well represented by land use controls such as zoning by-lav/ s. The objective of zoning by-laws has been to publicly control the 1$ private use of land. They were applied to suburban areas to ensure the permanency of the values therein represented. Limitations on population densities were to ensure the construction of the type of residential area that would supply open space, fresh air, safety and privacy. Exclusion of non-residential uses was to ensure the maintenance of a healthy and pleas-ing urban environment. In this way, the suburb, protected by zoning by-laws, was designed according to the conceptualized needs of the basic social unit - the family. In retrospect, the concept of suburbia was too restricted. Extensive areas of single family dwellings have generated an atmosphere of monotony. In addition, suburbia has been made obsolete by fundamental changes in the industrialized metropolitan areas. Cities have grown to such great sizes that segregation of the place of residence, the place of commerce and the place of work is no longer functionally viable. In addition, the social structure has changed. Seventy years ago the great majority of individuals lived with their fami-ly irrespective of their age and marital status. Under these conditions, a suburban home might have approximated an ideal accommodation. Now the adult offspring enjoy greater financial and social independence. In the absence of suitable non-family accommodation in the suburbs, large numbers of these individuals move "downtown". The aging parents, on the other hand, find the suburban home difficult to maintain and many leave the suburbs. Most metropolitan areas continue to grow rapidly. A need is gen-erated for an expanding housing stock. Consequently, large suburban areas are constructed each year. In the absence of a "housing mix," that i s , 3 accommodation for a l l types of households, only young married couples and their dependent children are represented in new suburban areas. The net effect is to generate a distinctive population age structure in which 79 young adults and aging couples and individuals are under-represented. The suburbs of an industrialized city cater to most socio-economic segments of the population. Any one suburb, however, does not normally cater to a l l socio-economic segments; rather, i t accommodates a limited clientele. This seems to be primarily related to competition between individuals for the optimum environment. It is reasoned that the best environment will be the most costly in a free market society. Thus the occupants of this environment must have a high ability to pay; successive-ly less desirable locations are occupied by individuals with successively lower ability to pay. In this way, suburbanization segregates people, to some extent, according to economic criteria as well as to the above men-tioned population age structure characteristics. The individual's economic and social positions are interwoven and are commonly referred to as his socio-economic status. In turn, the various levels of socio-economic status, in an aggregate of individuals, are associated with different demographic experiences. Therefore, i t has been argued that population age structure varies according to site quality because a population's socio-economic status varies according to the "market value" of a residential area. Literature research identified natural qualities, qualities of improvement and qualities of location as components of suburban sites that are amenable to statistical analysis. A youth dependency ratio, and a sex ratio;*.of the adult offsprings in the populations through time, were suitable for statistical analysis. The limitations and feasible statis-tical manipulations of these measures are discussed in the following section;, There is some evidence that various categories of single family residential zoning protect and perpetrate socio-economic differences in 80 the suburban populations. In addition, the history of construction in a given suburb, particularly the date of construction and the length of time during which construction occurred, is associated with certain differences in the population age structure. There is evidence that cyclic variations in the demographic processes in any given suburban population are sub-stantially reduced through time. In contrast, slow development of a sub-urb will prevent these variations from being set up. This factor has been integrated in the planning for the English "New Town" of Hook as a means of establishing a balanced age structure in its population.^- The con-struction experiences of the selected samples were not held constant and i t is expected that some distortion has occurred in the statistical analy-sis. Methods of dealing with this variable are discussed in Chapter VI. Correlation and Interpretation of the Variables  The general interest of this study is the relationship between site quality and population age structure; the specific interest is differences in this relationship from sample area to sample area. The statistical research was designed to identify and quantify the differences.. The method of selecting statistical instruments was to l i s t a l l the ways of measur-ing the variables in order of their effectiveness and efficiency. Next, the limitations imposed by the detailed objectives of the study, the data and resources for this study were considered. A number of instruments were eliminated. From the remainder, the most effective instruments for measuring and correlating the variables were selected. Accordingly, rating was used for the site quality variable, and indices were used for the population age structure variable. Correlation of the variables and measurement of the level of significance are by the Pearson product-moment 5 correlation and this statistical manipulation is carried out in this 8 1 s e c t i o n . C e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s i t e q u a l i t y v a r i a b l e a r e b r o u g h t to t h e s u r f a c e b y t h e s i t e r a t i n g , T a b l e 2, C h a p t e r I I . The B r i t i s h P r o p e r -t i e s i s t h e e l i t e s u b d i v i s i o n , West P o i n t G r e y sample i s " m i d d l e C l a s s " and F r a s e r v i e w i s " w o r k i n g c l a s s . " S i n c e t h e B r i t i s h P r o p e r t i e s i s o c c u -p i e d b y i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h t h e h i g h e s t a b i l i t y t o p u r c h a s e accommodation, h i g h r a t i n g s i n t h i s sample r e p r e s e n t t h e most d e s i r a b l e s i t e q u a l i t i e s . N a t u r a l q u a l i t i e s have u n i f o r m l y h i g h r a t i n g s . R a t i n g s a r e maximum f o r improvements on t h e i n d i v i d u a l p r o p e r t i e s , d w e l l i n g q u a l i t y and q u a l i t y of l a n d s c a p i n g , and i t e m s r e l a t i n g t o movement b y a u t o , a c c e s s i b i l i t y and l a c k o f c o mmunications h a z a r d . F i n a l l y , u r b a n a m e n i t i e s r e c e i v e maximum r a i n g s . T h at t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e t h e most d e s i r a b l e q u a l i t i e s i n a r e s i d e n -t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t i s s u p p o r t e d i n g e n e r a l b y t h e Buchanan R e p o r t . ^ However, t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n f a c t o r s i n w h i c h t h e B r i t i s h P r o p e r t i e s r e c e i v e d no s c o r e . F o r example, s i d e w a l k s , p r o p e r d r a i n a g e and c o n v e n i e n c e s h o p p i n g were c o m p l e t e l y a b s e n t . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e F r a s e r v i e w and West P o i n t G r e y samples had some c o n v e n i e n c e s h o p p i n g and a n e a r l y complete s u p p l y o f s i d e w a l k s and p r o p e r d r a i n a g e . The e x p l a n a t i o n seems t o l i e i n t h e l e v e l o f m o b i l i t y . B r i t i s h P r o p e r t i e s i s h i g h l y a u t o - o r i e n t e d , whereas s u b s t a n -t i a l p e d e s t r i a n p o p u l a t i o n s were o b s e r v e d i n t h e o t h e r samples. Conse-q u e n t l y , t h e r a t i n g system i s c o n s t i t u t e d b y measures o f d i f f e r e n c e s t h a t a r e i n h e r e n t t o t h e v a l u e o f t h e s i t e - such as v i e w - and measures o f d i f f e r e n c e s t h a t r e f l e c t t h e p o p u l a t i o n ' s degree o f " a u t o - o r i e n t a t i o n . " The l a t t e r o f f s e t s t h e f o r m e r . The i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e s e t y p e t y p e s o f measures i s t h o u g h t t o a p p r o x i m a t e t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e s i t e b y t h e 7 o c c u p a n t s . The i n d i c e s f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n age s t r u c t u r e v a r i a b l e , as shown i n T a b l e 4, C h a p t e r I I I , i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between p o p u l a t i o n are 82 decreasing through time. In addition, the direction of change in differ-ences is towards the West Point Grey sample. For example, the youth dependency ratio indices decreased from 13.95 to 10.85 for Fraserview and from 9.58 to 9.38 for British Properties from 1961 to 1966, compared to the base index of 7.50 for West Point Grey. In contrast, the sex ratio indices for the adult offsprings decreased from 8.31 to 7.98 for Fraser-view and increased from 6.62 to 6.73 for British Properties during the same period, compared to the 7.50 base index for West Point Grey. This is explained by the tendency for populations to approach a balanced age structure through time. Since the West Point Grey sample is the oldest suburban area, i t has a more balanced population. In addition, its par-ticular construction experience prevented the setting up of the unbalanced g populations typical of suburbia. The population age structure variables of the Fraserview and British Properries samples approach homogeneity as the indices move toward the West Point Grey base index. Thus the indices measure population age structure differential. One segment of the population, for example the 20 to 24 year age group, might be more sensitive to the various forces involved in the subject relationship. Accordingly, i t appears to be desirable to correlate the component parts of the population age structure index to the site quality rating. The data for both variables have been refined to interval measure-ments. This means that the distance between two numbers on the scale is of known size—the zero point and units of measurement are arbitrary. Interval type data are regarded as "stronger" than nominal or ordinal data, and they allow for parametric as well as non-parametric tests. The statistical manipulations are to validate the hypothesis; that i s , they are to demonstrate that a relationship exists between differentials in 83 site quality and population age structure in the samples. In addition, the instruments are required to show a level of significance to the rela-2 10 tionship. Initially, non-parametric tests were attempted. The X.:. test 11 in conjunction with the contingency coefficient, the tests used, have the advantage of simplicity. However, the X 2 test is adversely affected by the.-sraall number of measurements used in this study. For the same reason, the contingency coefficient does not allow establishment of high levels of significance. Consequently, the results from these tests were inconclusive. The "strong" data that have been established for the variables allow use of the more sophisticated tests such as the Pearson product-12 moment correlation. The disadvantages of this test are i t complexity and its inability to establish non-linear relationship. However, both direct and inverse linear relationships can be detected with high levels of precision. Hoel advises that the Pearson product-moment correlation . . . as a measure of the strength between two variables is a purely mathematical interpretation and is completely devoid of any cause or effect implications. The fact that two variables tend to increase or decrease together does not imply that one has any direct or indirect effect on the other. ^ In other words, the evidence from this test must be interpreted with caution i f reliable information concerning the relationship is to be established. The limits of the results from the Pearson product-moment correla-tion are from -1.00, complete inverse linear, and 1.00, a complete direct linear relationship, to zero which signifies no linear relationship. The calculations are on Table 6 for the applications of the instrument to the site quality rating and population age structure index. Table 7 shows the conclusions for correlation analysis for the component parts of the popu-lation age structure index and site quality rating. 84 TABLE 6 a CORRELATION OF SITE QUALITY RATING AND POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE INDEX Formula: _ nSxy - SxSy ^(nSx* - (&0*)(nSy2 - (Syf) r = Pearson product-moment correlation S = sigma = summation n = number of pairs of measurements x = site quality rating y = population age structure index Data:0 Sample Fraserview West Point Grey British Properties Site Age Rating Index 7.15 10.61 8.45 7.50 10.40 7.96 Calculations: (a) nSxy = 7.15 X 10.61 = 75.86 8.45 X. 7.50 = 63.37 10.40 X 7.96 = 82.78 222.01 X 3 666.03 -SxSy = 26.00 X 26.07 = 677.82 = 666.03 -677.82 - 11.79 (b) nSx = 7.155 = 8.45o = 10.40 = -(Sx)2= 26 .00 2 51.12 71.40 108.16 230.68 = 676.00 = 692.04 -676.00 16.04 692.04 85 TABLE 6~Gontinued (c) nSy2 = 1 0 . 6 1 2 = 1 1 2 . 5 7 7 . 5 0 * = 5 6 . 2 5 7 . 9 6 * = 6 3 . 3 6 232.18 X 3 696.54 -(Sy)2= 26.07 = 6 7 9 . 6 4 = 6 9 6 . 5 4 - 6 7 9 . 6 4 16.90 (d) square root of((b)X(c)) = sq. rt. ( 1 6 . 0 4 X 16.90) sq. rt. 271.08 = 1 6 . 4 6 (e) (a)/(d) = -11.79 / 1 6 . 4 6 = -.72 (f) therefore r = -.72 Conclusion:^ There is an inverse relationship between site quality and popula-tion age structure differentials. The strength of this relation-ship is as -.72 is greater than 0 and less than -1.00. aP. G. Hoel, Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1962), pp. 160-68. Hoel, op. cit.. p. 165. Refer to tables 2 and 4 . ^Hoel, op. cit.. pp. 163-65. 86 TABLE 7 a CORRELATION OE SITE QUALITY RATING AND COMPONENT PARTS OF THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE INDEX Item Date Correlation Coefficient Youth Dependency Ratio To Site Quality Rating. 1961 1966 -.57 -.48 Rate of Proportionate Decrease Per Year, Adult Offsprings To Site Quality Rating. 1961 to 1966 -.81 Sex Ratio For 20 to 24 Year Age Groups To Site Quality Rating. 1961 1966 -.99 -1.00 Average Index of Quantitative Differential in Population Age Structure To Site Quality Rating. -.72 Calculated from: Tables 2 and 4. Refer to Table 6 for method. Interpretation of the conclusions on Table 7 are limited by the following considerations: (a) The data refer to differences in the variables that are suit-able for measurement. Aspects that are common to a l l samples and aspects that could not be measured within the limitations of this study have been omitted. Consequently, definitive conclusions cannot be made regarding precisely quantifiable values of the relationship. Rather, the conclu-sions explain the general nature of the relationship between the variables. (b) The reliability of the Pearson product-moment correlation is a function of the number of pairs of measurements. Three pairs, the number for this study, is the minimum. The use of interval data rather than nominal offsets this factor and the conclusions on Table 7 are regarded 87 as a satisfactory measure of the v a l i d i t y and level of significance. In addition, the instrument assumes that the samples constitute a segment of a continuum. Since this assumption i s demonstrably subject to error, the conclusions cannot be extrapolated to samples with site ratings or population age structure indices beyond the largest or smallest values 1 5 represented by the three subject samples. The average population age structure index to site quality rating correlation coeff ic ient , -.72, validates the hypothesis. That i s , the population age structure i s related to the site quali ty . The level of significance i s substantial. However, i t does not appear to be adequate as a basis for a statement concerning any specific site i n the metropoli-tan area other than the samples. The relationship between the variables i s inverse; i n general, as site quality rating increases, the population age structure d i f f e r e n t i a l might be expected to decrease. This does not mean there i s a cause and effect relationship. Rather, i t should be re-garded as an associated relationship. The correlation coefficients for the component parts of the popu-l a t i o n age structure index range from low for the youth dependency ratio indices to very high for the sex ratio indices . It i s noted that, as the age group of the subject population for the various measures increases, so does the strength of the correlation coeff ic ient . The youth dependency ratio involves the 0 to 19 year age groups, the rate of proportionate decrease involves the 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 year age groups and the sex ratio refers to the 20 to 24 year age groups; the corresponding correla-t ion coefficients are -.57 and -.48, - .81, and -.99 and -1.00 respectively. The older age groups might be expected to have greater control over their behaviour with regard to residential location. In addition, they might be more sensitive to the forces determining where they l i v e , part icularly 88 as they become financially responsible for their accommodation. The cor-relation coefficients for the sex ratio of the 20 to 24 year age groups show adequate strength to allow predictability, given a more extensive testing than was possible in this study. They indicate that as the number of males per 100 females in the adult offspring age group increases, the site quality decreases. The sex ratio indices have the unique characteristic of isolating one age group from the populations. The youth dependency ratio indices relate one segment of the population to another and the rate of propor-tionate decrease relates two age groups to each other, based on the entire population. For this reason, i t is expected that the sex ratios are a stronger measure. A more reliable measure of quantitative differential might be expected to give a higher level of significance. The youth dependency ratio indices and sex ratio indices provide an indicator of change through time. The correlation coefficient for the youth dependency ratio decreased from - .57 in 1961 to -.4-8 in 1966. A degeneration of this particular relationship is suggested. In contrast, the corresponding figures for the sex ratio indices to site quality re-lationship correlation increased from - .99 in 1961 to -1.00 in 1966. The tendency for the level of significance of this correlation coefficient to increase through time supports the previous suggestion that the relation-ship might be amenable to prediction. Research Conclusions This study warrants the following conclusions: (a) The Industrial Revolution stimulated a major migration from the farm to the city. Rapid and poorly controlled urban growth causes unique urban problems, which in turn encourage flight to suburbia. A 89 d i s t i n c t i v e t y p e o f accommodation, t h e s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g , i s w i d e s p r e a d i n m e t r o p o l i t a n s u b u r b a n a r e a s . S i n c e t h i s t y p e o f accommodation d i s c r i m i n a t e s t o w a r d s t h e n u c l e a r f a m i l y w i t h dependent c h i l d r e n , a d i s -t i n c t i v e s uburban p o p u l a t i o n age s t r u c t u r e i s o b s e r v a b l e . Young a d u l t and e l d e r l y age g r o u p s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y u n d e r - r e p r e s e n t e d . (b) Due t o c o n s t r u c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s , s e r v i c e r e q u i r e m e n t s and m u n i c -i p a l development p o l i c i e s , s u b u r b a n i z a t i o n t e n d s t o o c c u r i n p a t c h e s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e c e n t r a l c i t y . Each suburban n e i g h b o u r h o o d o f f e r s accom-m o d a t i o n o f a f a i r l y l i m i t e d p r i c e r a n g e . The p r i c e range o f accommodation d e t e r m i n e s c e r t a i n a s p e c t s o f s i t e q u a l i t y , and i n t u r n i t i s d e t e r m i n e d b y o t h e r a s p e c t s o f s i t e q u a l i t y , s u c h as n a t u r a l a m e n i t y and l o c a t i o n . Any new development i s o c c u p i e d b y i n d i v i d u a l s e x p e r i e n c i n g need f o r t h e t y p e o f accommodation o f f e r e d and who have t h e a b i l i t y t o pay f o r i t . The g r e a t e s t i n c i d e n c e o f need f o r s i n g l e f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation i s e x p e r i e n c e d b y young m a r r i e d c o u p l e s w i t h dependent c h i l d r e n . The a b i l i t y t o pay, on t h e o t h e r hand, v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s s . A s u b d i v i s i o n o f f e r i n g accommodation o f t h e l o w p r i c e range i s o c c u p i e d b y a m a j o r i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l s f r o m t h e l o w e r s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s -s e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o d e t e r m i n i n g t h e a b i l i t y t o pay, t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s s d e t e r m i n e s t h e p o p u l a t i o n ' s performance o f demographic p r o c e s s e s . T h e r e f o r e , s u b u r b a n a r e a s t e n d t o have p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h d i f f e r e n t demo-g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Q u a n t i f i a b l e d i f f e r e n t i a l i s o b s e r v a b l e b y t h e p o p u l a t i o n age s t r u c t u r e . I t i s c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e i n t e r f a c e o f t h e s i t e q u a l i t y t o p o p u l a t i o n age s t r u c t u r e i s an a s s o c i a t e d r e l a t i o h s h i p ; b o t h a r e d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e p r o p e n s i t y f o r a p a r t i c u l a r s u b d i v i s i o n t o be o c c u -p i e d b y a m a j o r i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n one s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c l a s s . The r e l a -t i o n s h i p a p p e a r s t o be i n v e r s e and l i n e a r . As t h e q u a l i t y o f s i t e i n c r e a s e s , t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e d i f f e r e n t i a l i n p o p u l a t i o n age s t r u c t u r e 90 decreases. The sex ratio of the 20 to 24 year age group appears to be particularly sensitive to these forces and independent of exogenous variables. (c) A major exogenous variable is the suburb's constructive experi-ence. The age of the suburb determines the stage of the "suburban f e r t i l -ity cycle" at any date. Consequently, the youth dependency ratio fluctu-ates through time. As a suburb matures, the fluctuations in this cycle are dissipated and a fairly balanced population age structure is estabs lished, although adult offsprings and elderly persons continue to be under-represented. The rate of construction determines the degree of in i t i a l unbalance in the suburb's population-!age structure. A slow rate of development, about one generation in length, prevents significant un-balance from forming. (d) Zoning is an exogenous variable. At the time of inauguration, this instrument of land use control might have approximated an ideal type of housing. Subsequent metropolitan growth, improvements in technology and changes in social structure have made i t obsolete when applied in its traditional form. There is some evidence that zoning protects certain qualities of residential development from incursions by different qualities of residential development. However, its major effect is to provide for development of single family residences over extensive areas. In the absence of non-family accommodation in suburban areas, the tendency for young adults and elderly persons to move "downtown" is effectively in-stitutionalized. Certain modern zoning practives, such as "comprehensive development," counter this effect. (e) The method for rating site quality, used in this study, estab-lishes relative differences in the site quality variable between samples. It cannot be used to derive a reliable generic value. Similarly, the 91 population age structure indices indicate the r e l a t i v e dif ferences i n the population age structure var iable between sample areas. However, they could be improved by i s o l a t i n g , whenever poss ib le , the age groups to be measured from the differences i n the base populat ion. The sex r a t i o indices are an example of e f fec t ive i s o l a t i o n of a subject from external in f luence . The success i n es tab l i sh ing the re la t ionsh ip between the var iables by the Pearson product-moment c o r r e l a t i o n indicates that t h i s instrument should be considered when a parametric tes t i s required. (f) The method appears to be an e f f i c i e n t and e f fec t ive means to analyse large areas on population numbers i n the suburbs. However, i t i s only applicable to large population aggregates, such as metropolitan Van-couver. I t i s expected that small communities do not experience res iden-t i a l segregation according to a populat ion's socio-economic character ist ics to the degree observed i n the metropolitan areas. This study has explored and i d e n t i f i e d various aspects of the re la t ionsh ip between the population age structure and the s i t e q u a l i t y v a r i a b l e s . Emphasis has been placed on differences between population aggregates and r e s i d e n t i a l areas. The ways have been set out i n which various q u a l i t i e s of residences are re lated to var ia t ions i n the popu-l a t i o n ' s demographic performance. The possible uses f o r t h i s type of study and the information thus derived are out l ined i n the fo l lowing chapter. I t i s recognized that t h i s study should be repl i ca ted to measure and define the subject r e l a t i o n s h i p with greater prec i s ion than was possible here in . In t h i s way, more usable information f o r planning pur-poses could be es tabl ished. 92 Footnotes 1M. Safdie, "Habitat '67, Environment for Man; The Next Fifty  Years. ed. W. R. Ewald, Jr., (Bloomington and London: Indiana, University Press, 1967), pp. 253-56. L. Mumford, The City in History. (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, Inc., 1961), p. 3. ^Metropolitan Toronto Planning Board, Official Plan. (Toronto: The Board, 1965), p. 5. ^"Greater London Council, Planning of a New Town. (London: The Council, 1965), p. 19. P. G. Hoel, Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1962), pp. 160-63. ^C. Buchanan, Traffic in Towns. (Harmondsworth, England: Penguin Books Ltd., 1964), pp. 65-76. 7 S. Siegel, Nonparametric Statistics For the Behavioral Sciences. (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1956), pp. 29-33. Greater London Council, op. cit. Q Siegel, op. cit.. pp. 26-28. 1 0Ibid., pp. 104-11. 1 1Ibid., pp. 196-202. l 2Ibid., Table 3*1. 13 Hoel, op. cit.. p. 164. 14 Siegel, op. cit.. pp. 26-28. 15 Hoel, op. cit.. pp. 166-68. CHAPTER VI THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES: ITS RELEVANCE TO THE COMMUNITY. PLANNING PROCESS Aspects of the Planning Process i n the Metropolitan Context The study of man and his environment might be approached from many points of view. For example, geography relates human distribution to en-vironmental characteristics and histroy describes human activity by area and through time. Community planning i s interested, to some degree, i n the varied points of view, because i t s interest i s the relationship be-tween man and his environment. Man i s a major variable i n his environment; he has learnt how to control many facets of nature to satisfy his needs and enhance his style of l i f e . Because man's activities have significant impact, the spillovers are many and far reaching. Frequently, theydetract from his neighbour's chances and destroy parts of his own environment. As populations grow and crowd to higher densities, the points of conflict multiply. The need i s generated for a sophisticated and sensitive system of organization. The ci t y i s recognized as the entity capable of provid-1 ing forthis need. The city's potential to give man the degree of organization and regulation to cope with a changing environmental context has not been adequately realized. Many problems have been inherited from the past. 93 9U Urban development was often directed to limited objectives and projects were designed out of context. In many cases, this very poor product was subjected to further degeneration by the construction of conflicting uses adjacent to i t . Complete clearance of the old cities is not a viable solution. As yet the city does not have the financial capacity or a 2 unanimous inclination for this type of urban renewal. Another critical problem is simultaneous change in a number of aspects of the urban en-vironment. Technical change, social change and demographic change con-tinue, generating new strains and needs in the urban fabric. In this context, the tendency has been towards a "problem solving" attitude by many interested professions. For example, Lampard suggest that . . . most behavioural studies have so far focused on urban pathology without ever establishing a very clear notion.of what constitutes normal behaviour in a normal community; . . . It is not enough to be able to recognize the problems; a concept of a viable urban entity is required i f remedial action is to have the desired effects, or new development is to avoid the pitfulls of the old. Industrial societies are committed to the city and they are commit-ted to change. These factors give community planning much of its essence. Many of the old city's problems can be eliminated and conflicting uses can be accommodated. Future developments can be designed to meet man's needs more effectively and efficiently. This study has examined in detail the single family residential accommodation. No attempt was made to con-demn or vindicate this type of development. Rather, various qualities of single family residential sites were examined in order to disclose aspects of the relationship between man and his environment. Such knowledge con-tributes to reliable decision making with regard to remedial action: and urban design. The evolution of metropolitan areas into a "megalopolis" leads to 95 unique and challenging situations for community planning. It has been established that a megalopolis i s not just a big c i t y . ^ It i s a d i s t i n c -tive entity with characteristic needs and products, many of which are related to the great aggregations of people l i v i n g and working interde-pendently. It i s expected that the complexity of man's new environment w i l l require more sensitive and precise planning decisions than ever before. Implications of the Relationship Under Study This study has demonstrated that environment and certain related demographic characteristics vary from site to s i t e . The sample area's population varied from 4504 for B r i t i s h Properties to 6355 for Fraserview i n 1966. Even i n these re la t ively small populations, the quantitative distributions of individuals by age group varied markedly from site to site and through time. However, i n calculating the demand for age related services, many planning departments use one factor for a l l areas and for a l l time. For example, the Borough of North York estimates public school needs by applying a factor of decimal seven public school children per single family dwelling throughout the municipality, an area of about sixty-seven square miles. In this way, i t i s expected that substantial under-util ization and over-ut i l izat ion of age related f a c i l i t i e s are occurring. The ramifications of age on productive a c t i v i t i e s and the rate and 5 type of consumption are extensive. In areas with access to a large and diversif ied labour supply and clientele, the variations are submerged. Exceptions have been the English "new towns" such as Crawley, and large suburbs such as Levittown, Long Island. In these cases, the variations i n quantitative d i f f e r e n t i a l were experienced through time. Variations 96 7 between "new towns" probably occur. It is possible that a place such as Cape Kennedy would have significant demographic differences from a "new town" such as Gold River, B.C. The former could be occupied by profes-sional and technical persons and perform, demographically, similar to the West Point Grey or British Properties samples; the latter has a large "blue collar" population and could resemble the Fraserview demographic charac te r i sti c s. Predictions of the various needs in rapidly growing areas should take into account the detailed characteristics of the population. For example, predictions for a neighbourhood such as Fraserview should take into account the high rates of natural increase associated with the lower socio-economic classes. In this way, a more effective and efficient urban fabric could be designed by community planners. It is recognized that the costs of allocations of services to accommodate a fluctuating demand, or undifferentiated allocations of facilities irrespective of varying needs, deserve a separate study. As metropolitan areas become city re-gions, these costs will become increasingly high; detailed and careful planning procedures will allow corresponding savings. This study demonstrated that the type of accommodation has ramifi-cations throughout the city's social matrix. The provision of a limited type of accommodation in one large area generates the characteristic suburban population age structure—married couples and their dependent children. It might be argued that the "distance between generations is increased by the creation of a suburban dichotomy of parents and children. Zoning regulations were designed to provide and protect a viable residen-cy t i a l environment, but their limitations have had unforseen consequences. The most undesirable effect seems to be the exclusion of certain types of households from vast suburban areas such as are found in metropolitan 97 g Vancouver. Certain modern zoning practices are to provide housing ac-cording to the range of population needs. This is certainly desirable 10 but land use regulations by themselves are not adequate. It was argued in Chapter IV that the fundamental deficiency of zoning practices in most municipalities of metropolitan Vancouver was the use of the by-lav; in the absence of an official plan. When zoning is properly integrated into the planning process, i t is used to implement an official plan. Zoning can be very effective when i t accomodates the normal relationships, as out-lined in this study, between man and his environment. In this way, the by-law is supported by the urban fabric, rather than being at variance with parts of i t . The impact of certain construction procedures on the population is significant. The unbalanced population age structures in the British Properties and Fraserview samples seem to be related to rapid development during a relatively short period of time. Construction techniques are most efficient when houses are constructed in sequence and adjacent to each other. However, the eventual occupants experience the social strains 11 related to population age structure unbalance. West Point Grey prob-ably avoided these strains because its 'development was over an extended period of time. The impact of construction on population age structure and site quality deserves more intensive consideration than is possible in this study. Two approaches appear to be feasible. The age of a suburb and the length of time in which development occurred could be held constant by careful selection of the samples. In this case, a more precise measure of the relationship between the variablss could be established, particularly for the quantifiable aspects. A review of suburban areas in metropolitan Vancouver indicated that samples substantially smaller 98 than those for this study would be required. Alternatively, large samples from different metropolitan areas could be used. Smaller samples involve serious problems in matching areas for population age structure data through time. Samples from different metropolitan areas might involve additional variables, such as industrial base. Another approach to the impact of construction characteristics on the relationship would be to apply matrix analysis to a number of subdivisions without holding constant any of the exogenous or endogenous variables. The use of computer tech-nology and very complex statistical analysis would be required in this case. It is expected that either approach would add complimentary in-formation to the subject under discussion. Applications for the Study's Methods of Research Research in the field of social sciences involves unique problems 12 in observation and inference. For example, i t is a major task to design a method of observation which does not interfere or distort the activity patterns of the people being observed. Another major problem is to infer accurately the meaning of data from interviews and questionaires. The research method for this study avoided both problems by concentrating on the history of the population's demographic performance and assessment of the site quality without any intermediary. It is expected that objective and reliable conclusions are derived from this type of research. However, i t i s recognized that the more complex social science research methods provide greater depth £>f information. A recurrent problem in the planning process is population predic-tions. The most popular methods involve extrapolation of existing trends of growth or decline into the future. Alternatively, an ultimate popu-lation for a given space can be estimated by determining the capacity of 99 that space, according to existing land use controls, to provide residence 13 for people. Both methods depend on certain general assumptions about people. It might be necessary to assume that family size or f e r t i l i t y will remain constant. These assumptions invariably insert certain in-accuracies into the prediction. However, the inaccuracies can be offset by determining in detail the probable population characteristics according to a contingent variable such as socio-economic characteristics. If the future employment for a community revolves around pulp and paper mills, then the modal socio-economic class can be expected to be "blue collar;" in this case, the f e r t i l i t y rate would be high. An alternative contingent variable might be site quality as outlined in this study. A lower f e r t i l -ity, as indicated by the youth dependency indices, is associated with high site quality. Therefore, an area that is suitable for high quality de-velopment might be expected to have a somewhat lower than average number of dependent children. Careful testing would be required to ascertain the reliability of the measurements of the variables and the relationship before the methods used in this study could be used for predictions. How-ever, there appears to be potential for this type of use. Certain characteristics of an environment might be inferred provid-ing a measureable and coBSistant behaviour by the occupants is associated with i t . An example is the sex ratiorof the 20 to 24 year age group. Since this ratio varies inversely with the site quality and i t is not seriously affected by exogenous variables, i t could conceivably be used as an index or indicator of variations in site quality. Conclusion The interface of population age structure and site quality relates to the planning process in the following ways: The continuing evolution 1 0 0 of urban areas i s generating re la t ively new and different forms of the c i t y . The most important forms are the "megalopolis" and the "new town." Rapid growth i n "patches"and specialized functions are characteristics. The tradit ional concept of a desirable urban form and the related methods of land use control are outdated and inadequate. Therefore, there i s a need for reassessment of the urban form, part icularly the v i t a l re la t ion-ship between man and his environment. The investigations for this study point out some of the characteristics to be expected i n this relationship. Such information should be used i n the formulation of a concept of a viable urban entity. In addition, some problem areas have been outlined. They are related to a c t i v i t i e s such as residential construction which are designed to meet re la t ively short term objectives. The method of research and the subject of research relate this study to the planning process. Certain functional relationships that are constituent parts of the urban fabric have been examined and described. In these ways, the study has provided information and methods that might be useful for precision i n decision making. As c i t ies grow i n size and complexity increases, sensi t ivi ty and precision i n planning procedures w i l l be of utmost importance. Accordingly, the investigation of the sub-ject relationship i s very relevant and timely. 101 Footnotes 0. Handlin and T. Burchard (ed.), The Historian and the City. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1963), p. 7. 2 B. Frieden, The Future of Old Neighbourhoods. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1963), chap. 1. 3 E. Lampard, "The Scope and Relevance of Urban History," The  Historian and the City. 0. Handlin and T. Burchard (ed.), (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1963), p. 24.6. ^"J. Gottmann, Megalopolis. (Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1961), chap. 15. c G. Barclay, Techniques of Population Analysis. (New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1958), chap. 9. Greater London Council, Planning of a New Town. (London: The Council, 1965), pp. 18-19. 7 I b i d . R. Babcock, The Zoning Gamef (Madison, Wis.: University of Wisconsin Press, 1966), p. 17. 9 Royal Architectural Institute of Canada, "First Statement, Zoning Study Committee," 1963, 23 p. and appendices. Ibid.. p. 3. 11 The Vancouver Community Chest observed high incidence of delin-quency and substantial disorganization of the normal community voluntary groups i n Fraserview i n the early 1960's. These dysfunctional elements appeared to be related to the unbalanced population age structure, i n the opinion of a Community Chest o f f i c i a l . 12 J. Madge, The Tools of Social Science. (Garden City, New York: Anchor Books, 1953), pp. 122-36. 1 3T-1 "1?. S. Chapin. Urban Land Use Planning. (Urbana: University of I l l i n o i s Press, 1965), chap. 5. APPENDIX 102 TABLE 8 a FRASERVIEW: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND SEX 1961 1966 Male Female Male Female Age Group # # 0 — 4 241 3.83 256 4.09 183 2.88 201 3.16 5 - 9 495 8.00 456 7.28 331 5.21 309 4.86 10 - U 705 11.26 669 10.72 488 7.68 457 7.19 15 — 19 296 4.73 277 4 .42 583 9.17 578 9.09 20 _ 24 81 1.29 66 1.05 196 3.08 146 2.30 25 - 34 132 2.11 287 4.59 177 2.78 199 3.17 35 — 44 717 11.45 724 11.58 451 7.10 654 10.29 45 - 54 318 5.08 199 3.18 578 9.09 415 6.53 55 - 64 71 1.13 63 1.01 129 2.03 91 1.43 65 _ 69 30 .48 20 .32 24 .38 31 .49 70 + 81 1.29 78 1.25 .71 1.12 63 .99 Total 3167 5 0 . 6 5 b 3095 4 9 . 4 9 b 3211 50.52 3144 4 9 . 4 8 Calculated from: Canada, "Age and Sex by Enumeration Districts," (Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 and 1966) , (I.B.M. Printouts). re to add to 100% i s due to rounding error. TABLE 9 a WEST POINT GREY: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND SEX 1961 1966 Male Female Male Female Age Group # % # % # % 0 - 4 240 4.00 241 4.02 250 4.18 257 4.30 5 - 9 267 4.45 269 4.49 273 4.57 286 4.79 10 - 14 303 5.05 267 4.45 286 4.79 250 4.18 15 - 19 251 4.19 251 4.19 269 4.50 263 4.40 20 - 24 139 2.32 125 2.08 200 3.35 159 2.66 25 - 34 266 4.44 278 4.64 263 4.40 288 4.82 35-44 380 6.34 458 7.64 371 6.21 403 6.75 45 - 54 454? 7.57 509 8.49 417 6.98 455 7.66 55 - 64 239 3.98 308 5.14 276 4.62 319 5.34 65 - 69 103 1.72 122 2.03 90 1.51 129 2.16 70 + 220 3.67 306 5.10 193 3.23 277 4.64 Total 2862 47.73 3134 52.27 2888 48.34b 3086 51.70b Calculated from: Canada, "Age and Sex by Enumeration Districts," (Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 and 1966), (i.B.M. Printouts). ^Failure to add to 100% is due to rounding error. TABLE 1CT BRITISH PROPERTIES: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND SEX 1961 1966 Male Female Male Female Age Group # % # % # % % 0 - 4 205 6.37 189 5.87 174 3.86 154 3.42 5 - 9 233 7.24 205 6.37 296 6.57 273 6.06 10 - 14 182 5.65 206 6.40 329 7.30 302 6.70 15 - 19 103 3.20 119 3.70 254 5.64 248 5.51 20-24 48 1.49 49 1.52 108 2.40 96 2.13 25 - 34 162 5.03 204 6.34 139 3.09 188 4.17 35-44 295 9.16 327 10.16 373 8.28 452 10.03 45 - 54 233 7.24 193 6.00 362 8.04 320 7.10 55 - 64 85 2.64 65 2.02 160 3.55 140 3.11 65 - 69 20 .62 ',21 .65 23 .51 28 .62 70 + 31 .96 44 1.37 35 .78 50 1.11 Total 1597 49.60 1622 50.40 2253 50.02b 2251 49.96b Calculated from: Canada, "Age and Sex by Enumeration District," (Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 and 1966), (i.B.M. Printouts). ^Failure to add to 100% is due to rounding error. DIAGRAM 5 a FRASERVIEW: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND SEX Male i i i i i i r—1~ 9 6 3 1961 Female T 1 J -3 Age 70 + 65 - 69 55 - 64 45 - 54 35 - 44 25 - 34 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5 - 9 0 - 4 Male • i < i « « • i i i i i 9 - Percent - 9 1966 Female J I ~i—i i I I I i i i t 0 3 6 9 Calculated from: Table 8. DIAGRAM 6 a WEST POINT GREY: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND SEX Male 1961 Female Age Male 1966 Female r 70 + 65 - 69 55 - 64 X 45 - 54 35-44 Calculated from: Table 9. DIAGRAM 7 a BRITISH PROPERTIES: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP AND SEX Male 1961 Female Age Male 1966 Female i i 9 J i "T 1 r 6 —i r 3 I 0 T — i — r 3 70 +-65 - 69 55 - 64 45 - 54 3 5 - 4 4 25 - 34 20 15 10 5 24 19 14 9 0 - 4 > • i i i t I I I 9 - Percent - 9 6 - i — 3 i t i i i i f 3 6 9 Calculated from: Table 10. BIBLIOGRAPHY A. BOOKS Ashton, T. S. The Industrial Revolution. New York: Oxford University Press, 1964. Babcock, R. The Zoning Game. Madison, Wis.: University of Wisconsin Press, 1966. Barclay, G. Techniques of Population Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1956. Bassett, E. M. Zoning. New York: Russel Sage Foundation, 1936. Blishen, B. R. et. al. (ed.). Canadian Society. Toronto: The Macmillan Company, 1961. Buchanan, C. Traffic in Towns. Harmonsworth, England: Penguin Books Ltd., 1964. Carver, H. Cities in the Suburbs. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1962. Chapin, F. S. Urban Land Use Planning. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1965. Clark, C. Population Growth and Land Use. London: Macmillan and Company Ltd., 1967. Clark, S. D. The Suburban Society. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1966. Community and Regional Planning Studies. Residential Land Subdivision: A Physical Examination. Vancouver: Division of Community and Regional Planning, Faculty of Graduate Studies, University of British Columbia, 1965. Dobriner, W. M. Class in Suburbia. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall Inc., 1963. Eldredge, H. W. (ed.). Taming Megalopolis. Garden City, N.Y.: Anchor Books, 1967. Freeman, L. C. Elementary Applied Statistics. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1965. Frieden, B. J. The Future of Old Neighbourhoods. Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1964. Friedman, J. and Alonso, W. (ed.). Regional Development and Planning. Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1964. 109 110 Giedion, S. Space. Time and Architecture. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1941. Goodman, P. and Goodman, P. Communitas. New York: Vintage Books, 1947. Gottmann, J. Megalopolis. Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1961. Haar, C. M. (ed.). Land-Use Planning. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1959. Hall, E. T. The Hidden Dimension. Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Company, Inc., 1966. Handlin, 0. and Burchard, T. (ed.). The Historian and the City. Cam-bridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1963. Hauser, P. M. (ed.). The Population Dilemma. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Inc., 1963. Hoel, P. G. Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1962. Hoover, E. M. and Vernon, R. Anatomy of a Metropolis. Garden City, N.Y.: Anchor Books, 1959. Jacobs, J. The Death and Life of Great American Cities. New York: Vintage Books, 1963. Lewis, M. Planning the Modern City. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1949. Madge, J. The Tools of Social Science. Garden City, Ne\* York: Anchor Books, 1963. Mayer, K. B. Class and Society. New York: Random House, 1955. Milner, J. B. (ed.). Cases and Materials on the Law and Administration  of Community Planning. (Revised Temporary Edition, Vol. 2). Toronto: By the Editor (?), 1958. Mumford, L. The City in History. New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, Inc., 1961. Nelson, L., Ramsey, C, and Verner, C. Community Structure and Change. New York: The Macmillan Co., 1960. Peterson, W. Population. New York: ' The Macmillan Co., 1965. Porter, J. Canadian Social Structure: A Statistical Profile. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart Ltd., 1967. . The Vertical Mosaic. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1965. Seeley, J., Sim, R. and Soosley, E. Crestwood Heights. Toronto. University of Toronto Press, 1956. 1 1 1 Siegel, S. Nonparametric Statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1956. Spengler, S. and Duncan, 0. (ed.). Demographic Analysis. Glencoe: The Free Press, 1 9 5 6 . Thompson, W. and Lewis, D. Population Problems. New York: McGraw-Hi l l Book Co., 1965. Warner, S. B., Jr. (ed.). Planning for a Nation of Cities. Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T. Press, 1966. Wolforth, J. Residential Location and the Place of Work. Vancouver: Tantalus Research Ltd., 1965. Wrong, D. Population and Society. New York: Random House, 1956. Whyte, W. H., Jr. The Organization Man. Garden City, New York: Double-day, Anchor Books, 1957. B. PERIODICALS Berent, T. "Fertility and Social Mobility." Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill Reprint, 1952. Wirth, D. "Urbanism as a Way of Life." Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill Reprint, 1938. C. GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS American Public Health Association, Committee on the Hygiene of Housing, Planning the Neighbourhood. Chicago: Public Administration Service, 1948. Bartholomew, H. and Associates. A Plan for the City of Vancouver. Vancouver: Vancouver City Council, 1928. City of Vancouver. Zoning and Development By-Law No. 3575. Vancouver: The City, 1959. Economic Council of Canada. The Canadian Economy from the 1960's to the  1970's. Ottawa: The Queen's Printer, 1967. Economic Council of Canada. Towards Sustained and Balanced Economic  Growth. Ottawa: The Queen's rinter, 1965. Greater London Council. Planning; of a New Town. London: The Council, 1965. 112 Metropolitan Toronto Planning Board. Official Plan. Toronto: The Planning Board, 1965. Oberlander, H. P. and Robinson, I. M. Living and Working in West Vancouver. British Columbia. West Vancouver: The District of West Vancouver, 1954. Peterson, W. P. West Vancouver Community Plan. West Vancouver: The District of West Vancouver, 1958. Province of British Columbia. Municipal Act. 1957, c. 42, s. 1. Province of British Columbia. Zoning for British Columbia Municipalities  and Villages. Victoria: Department of Municipal Affairs. Spengle, W. E. Jr. Model Zoning Ordinance. Modesto, Cal.: Stanislaus County, 1960. Technical Planning Board. Apartment Zoning and Suburban Commercial  Centres. Vancouver: The Technical Planning Board, City of Vane ouve r, 1964. D. UNPUBLISHED MATERIALS Royal Architectural Institute of Canada. "First Statement, Zoning Study Committee." Toronto (?): The Institute, 1963. 

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