UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Toward a theory of two-person interaction Reimer, William C. 1974

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Notice for Google Chrome users:
If you are having trouble viewing or searching the PDF with Google Chrome, please download it here instead.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1974_A1 R43_9.pdf [ 7.18MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0093505.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0093505-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0093505-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0093505-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0093505-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0093505-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0093505-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0093505-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0093505.ris

Full Text

TOWARD A THEORY OF TWO-PERSON INTERACTION by WILLIAM C. REIMER A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY i n the Department of Anthropology and Soc io logy We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the r e q u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA In presenting th is thesis in pa r t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary shal l make it f ree ly ava i lab le for reference and study. I fur ther agree that permission for extensive copying of th is thes is for scho la r ly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department: o r by his representat ives . It is understood that copying or pub l ica t ion of th is thes is for f inanc ia l gain sha l l not be allowed without my writ ten permission. Department of Anthropology and Sociology The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada D a t e June 15, 1974 ABSTRACT In t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , a conceptual framework f o r the study of i n t e r a c t i o n between two persons i s presented. One s p e c i f i c aspect of th a t framework i s s e l e c t e d and an experimental t e s t which focuses on th a t aspect i s conducted. This t e s t i s designed to begin the process of r e f i n i n g the o r i g i n a l c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n . The conceptual framework u t i l i z e d s t r e s s e s the se q u e n t i a l and information-processing features of i n t e r a c t i o n . The responses of persons are considered to be the r e s u l t of two processes: one i n which an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s made (the " i n t e r p r e t i v e p r ocess"), and one by which t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n forms the b a s i s f o r a new response (the " d e c i s i o n process"). This two-step model of a c t i o n i s used i n order to deal w i t h some of the problems created when a simple one-step b e h a v i o r a l model i s used to d e a l w i t h c o g n i t i v e and l i n g u i s t i c processes. Since s e q u e n t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n i s a c e n t r a l concern i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , the manner i n which i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s or d e c i s i o n s are changed over time i s a c r u c i a l i s s u e . I t i s proposed that the " i n t e r p r e t i v e process" i s best accounted f o r by a th r e s h o l d type of o p e r a t i o n , whereas the " d e c i s i o n process" might best be d e a l t with by a more simple l e a r n i n g model. These suggestions are made i n order to account f o r some of the r e s i s t a n c e to change which the l i t e r a t u r e on expectations i d e n t i f i e s , and at the same time, the i i i f l e x i b i l i t y of response which i s found i n situations of learning. Once t h i s conceptual framework i s sp e c i f i e d , a more detailed elaboration of the "interpretive process" i s begun. Two general types of threshold choice processes are described: one which predicts a change in choice after a run of events of the same type, and the other which predicts a change afte r the differences between two event types reaches a threshold. An experiment i s developed which allows one to d i f f e r e n t i a t e which threshold model best accounts for the choices made. T h i r t y - f i v e subjects are used and the results support the difference threshold model as the one which accounts for most of the choices. However, the predictive power of the difference model at i t s maximum i s only 84% of the choices made. There i s , in addition, some evidence which suggests that the subjects might a l t e r choice models under certain conditions. F i n a l l y , several weak points i n the conceptual frame-work are i d e n t i f i e d , along with suggestions regarding strategies for future research. Refinements of the experimental design which include greater controls on motivating and memory factors are suggested. Such refinements would allow an even stronger test of the threshold models proposed. An alternative suggestion i s that the reseach move to an elaboration of the re l a t i o n s h i p between events and interpretations or an elaboration of the "decision process" i t s e l f . i v TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION SECTION 1 Summary Page 1 4 CHAPTER ONE - THE GENERAL THEORETICAL ISSUES - Interdependence and the Sequential Nature of Interaction - Limitations of the Behavioral Account - The Introduction of an "Interpretation" - Example: The Double Bind Theory of Schizophrenia - Example: The Labelling Theories of Deviance - Research Strategies CHAPTER TWO- A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF INTERACTION - On the Concept of "Interpretations" - A Conceptual Framework for Interaction - Individual Cognitive Operations - A Model for Interaction - Representation of Associations CHAPTER THREE - THE PROCESS OF CHANGE IN ASSOCIATIONS - Theoretical Background - The Nature of the Change - The Process of Change SECTION 2 CHAPTER FOUR - OPERATIONALIZING THE THRESHOLD MODEL - The Threshold Model - Representation of the Individual Process CHAPTER FIVE - THE EXPERIMENT - The General Design - The Basic Model and the Experiment - The Choice Models and the Experiment - The F i r s t Mode of Analysis CHAPTER SIX - RESULTS AND ANALYSIS - Test of Assumption 3 and the Second Mode of Analysis - Primary Analysis - The Interviews - The Third Mode of Analysis - S h i f t s i n Models Used 6 12 13 16 19 21 24 25 33 36 40 47 51 53 54 61 65 66 71 75 77 80 83 85 91 93 98 102 105 107 V Page CHAPTER SEVEN - CONCLUSIONS H 2 - Research Conc lus ions 112 - Conceptual Framework and Conc lus ions 116 FOOTNOTES 121 BIBLIOGRAPHY 128 APPENDIX A - A D e s c r i p t i o n of the Exper imenta l S i t u a t i o n 133 APPENDIX B - a . Handout to the Subjec ts 135 - b . An Example of an I n t e r a c t i o n Sequence 137 APPENDIX C - a . Schedule of Symptoms for the Las t Four P a t i e n t s 140 b . Number o f T r i a l s to Diagnos i s f o r T h i r t y - f i v e Subjec ts 141 APPENDIX D - C a l c u l a t i o n of Expected Frequencies f o r P a t i e n t Number 4 142 APPENDIX E - Quest ions Asked During Pos t -Expe r imen ta l In t e rv i ew 143 APPENDIX F - a . Computer Program 144 b . Example of Data Recorded by Machine fo r Subject Number 20 148 v i LIST OF TABLES Page 5.1 Example of symptom sequence and l e v e l of e x c i t a t i o n for one "patient" 86 6.1 Minimum, maximum and mean number of t r i a l s to diagnosis for the l a s t four patients 92 6.2 Values of k for f i v e subjects, by patient number 94 6.3 Mean t r i a l s to diagnosis and associated values of p for patients 2 to 5 99 6.4 Actual frequencies for four types of outcomes and expected frequencies under the geometric ntxr i. d i s t r i b u t i o n 100 6.5 Proportion of t r i a l s to decision which were accurately predicted by difference and runs models, for two halves of sequence 110 7.1 Range of k values under difference model 117 LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Graphic representation of associations 49 4.1 General branching process for choice array 72 5.1 Branching process for experimental choices 75 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n was completed under the d i r e c t i o n of P ro fesso r R . A . H . Robson at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia . I am deeply indebted to P ro fe s so r Robson fo r h i s cons ide rab l e i n t e l l e c t u a l i n p u t as w e l l as h i s moral support throughout the whole p rocess . A l l the other members of my d o c t o r a l committee have had a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e on my p e r s p e c t i v e as w e l l : Dr . Martha F o s c h i , who made c l e a r the importance of expec ta t ions r e sea rch to my academic concerns , Dr . Tom Storm, who prov ided many i n s i g h t f u l c r i t i c i s m s of o r i g i n a l d r a f t s of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n from a p s y c h o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , Dr . R icha rd Robinson, who made s e v e r a l s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s to the i n t e g r a t i o n of d i v e r s e i n t e l l e c t u a l i s sues w i t h which I was concerned, and to Dr . P i e r r e Maranda, who helped me w i t h some of the more formal r ep r e sen t a t i ons which t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i n c l u d e s . I am a l s o very g r a t e f u l to Dr . Dorothy Smi th , who f i r s t s t i m u l a t e d my i n t e r e s t i n dyadic i n t e r a c t i o n , and to Donald Earner and W i l l i a m Foddy fo r t h e i r many u s e f u l comments a t v a r i o u s p o i n t s i n the development of t h i s theory and r e s e a r c h . F i n a l l y , I would l i k e to acknowledge the f i n a n c i a l support which I have r e c e i v e d from the Canada C o u n c i l . They have p rov ided me w i t h a d o c t o r a l f e l l o w s h i p du r ing the p e r i o d i n which the resea rch was t a k i n g p l a c e . 1 INTRODUCTION In t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n we are concerned with develop-ing theory about in t e r a c t i o n between two persons. Our intention i n the space of t h i s document i s not to complete such a development, but only to propose a conceptual framework from which theory might be developed. The f i r s t major portion of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n (Chapters 1 to 3), involves the elaboration of t h i s conceptual framework. In t h i s section, we w i l l elaborate the central concepts and propose a p a r t i c u l a r way of viewing i n d i v i d u a l s ' choices i n an exchange. This framework forms the basis for the second section. The second section (Chapters 4 to 7) , begins the process of r e f i n i n g the conceptual framework by operationalizing one small part of i t . In no way i s the experiment which comes from t h i s operationalization, designed as a test of the f u l l conceptualization. I t i s to be considered simply as a pre-liminary investigation of the u t i l i t y of the framework. Only through such an elaboration of various aspects of the conceptual-i z a t i o n and the subjection of these elaborations to empirical tests can we es t a b l i s h i t s u t i l i t y . The type of inte r a c t i o n with which we are concerned i s l i m i t e d by f i v e general conditions. Some of these conditions were clear from the beginning of our research and they therefore stand as representations of the bounds of our personal i n t e r e s t i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . Others have been developed as the r e s u l t of t h e o r e t i c a l problems which have emerged as the research was 2 carried out. Taken together, they provide a rather clear out-l i n e of the focus of thi s d i s s e r t a t i o n . F i r s t of a l l , we are concerned with i n t e r a c t i o n only i n face-to-face situations. To that extent, our concern w i l l be with "focussed i n t e r a c t i o n " i n Goffman's sense. According to him: Focused i n t e r a c t i o n occurs when people e f f e c t i v e l y agree to sustain for a time a single focus of cognitive and v i s u a l attention, as i n a conversation, a board game, or a j o i n t task sustained by a close face-to-face c i r c l e of contributors. * By l i m i t i n g our concern i n t h i s way, we have eliminated the effe c t s of delays i n communication between persons, problems created by the form i n which the communication might be trans-mitted, and variations i n response produced by gross variations i n the immediate environment of the interactants. Second, we are dealing only with face-to-face i n t e r -action i n which the persons involved are attempting to coordin-ate t h e i r behavior. We w i l l consider only those situations i n which the interactants are not i n t e n t i o n a l l y deceptive or operating with strategies of confrontation. Such confrontation or c o n f l i c t might develop through i n t e r a c t i o n of course, but we w i l l not deal with those interactions i n which i t i s an i n i t i a l condition. As a r e s u l t of t h i s general condition, we w i l l u t i l i z e theories r e l a t i n g to information-processing rather than those of c o n f l i c t or bargaining. As a t h i r d condition, we w i l l deal only with i n t e r -action i n which the persons involved are interdependent. This means that one person's action has the p o s s i b i l i t y of a f f e c t i n g 3 the other's; whose action i n turn can a f f e c t the f i r s t ; and so on. Single acts are r a r e l y meaningful i n themselves, there-fore, but only as they occur as part of a sequence of acts. In t h i s concern, we share once again Goffman's perspective and focus; not on the i n d i v i d u a l and h i s psychology alone, ...but rather the syntactical, r e l a t i o n s among the acts of d i f f e r e n t persons mutually present to one another. None the l e s s , since i t i s i n d i v i d u a l actors who con-tribu t e the ultimate materials, i t w i l l always be reasonable to ask what general properties they must have i f t h i s sort of contribution i s to be expected of them.2> Closely related to t h i s p o s i t i o n i s our fourth condition that the i n t e r a c t i o n continue over a period of time. Single exchanges w i l l not be considered except as they may be part of a sequence of exchanges. We are assuming that many important aspects of i n t e r a c t i o n w i l l only emerge a f t e r many such exchanges. The f i f t h condition which i s r e f l e c t e d i n our con-ceptual framework i s the central r o l e of interpretations of behavior. . We w i l l assume that actions i n an exchange do not have unequivocal meanings, but may be interpreted i n various ways by the actors involved. This means that i n t e r a c t i o n , as we have considered i t , i s an open-ended process which has the pot e n t i a l of developing new forms as the persons i n t e r a c t . Under d i f f e r e n t interpretations the same act may produce d i f f e r e n t responses. If we assume that these conditions operate i n i n t e r a c t i o n , we can see that the coordination of action between persons i s p o t e n t i a l l y very complex. Not only do the i n d i v -iduals involved have the problem of establishing the appropriate interpretation to make of the other's action, but they must also take into account the e f f e c t which t h e i r own action might have on the other person. If interpretations of action are not shared by both persons, the problems are further increased. Even the process of discovering that interpretations are not shared, or the process of attempting to i d e n t i f y a common basis for forming interpretations, may be instrumental i n s h i f t i n g the o r i g i n a l basis for the r e l a t i o n s h i p . This perspective of i n t e r a c t i o n i s very complex, but we f e e l that one can introduce into the process, a number of constraints which place l i m i t s on i t . Individuals are limited by various demands which the other person and the environment place on them. They are also limited by the s k i l l s and resources which they have at t h e i r disposal to meet these demands. I t i s through the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of some of those l i m i t s and they way they a f f e c t the unfolding of an i n t e r a c t i o n sequence, that we hope to increase our understanding of interpersonal exchange. Summary We are now i n a position to specify the central conditions which we require our theory of i n t e r a c t i o n to s a t i s f y . Since i n the discussion that follows, there are many decisions made which r e f l e c t these conditions we w i l l specify them i n an abbreviated form. 5 1. The conceptualization must deal with i n t e r a c t i o n i n face-to-face s i t u a t i o n s . 2. The conceptualization must deal with i n t e r a c t i o n i n a s i t u a t i o n where both interactants desire coordination of t h e i r a c t i v i t y . 3. The conceptualization must deal with i n t e r a c t i o n i n which the persons involved are interdependent. 4. The conceptualization must allow propositions to be made regarding the ways i n which a sequence of  int e r a c t i o n , rather than single acts might proceed. 5. The conceptualization must permit one to introduce the e f f e c t s of interpretations of acts into the int e r a c t i o n process. 6 SECTION ONE CHAPTER 1 - THE GENERAL THEORETICAL ISSUES Within the s o c i o l o g i c a l l i t e r a t u r e , there are a number of references to the type of i n t e r a c t i o n with which we are concerned. However, post of the theories i n t h i s area deal only with two or three of the central issues we have mentioned and not with a l l f i v e . I t i s out of the f a i l u r e of such theories to provide an integration of these issues that t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n w i l l be developed. Of the f i v e basic conditions which we have sp e c i f i e d , the l a s t three are p a r t i c u l a r l y c r u c i a l to the d i r e c t i o n we have adopted i n our conceptual framework. I t was i n an attempt to integrate the condition of interdependence (condition 3) with that of the sequential nature of i n t e r a c t i o n (condition 4) , that we were forced to invoke the concept of an i n t e r p r e t -ation (condition 5). Since t h i s i s central to our conceptual framework, we w i l l begin our discussion at t h i s point. Interdependence and the Sequential Nature of Interaction As we have stated previously, we were interested i n an account of in t e r a c t i o n which deals with the interdepend-ence of persons i n an exchange and at the same time with the exchange as a sequential process. We turned f i r s t of a l l to the body of l i t e r a t u r e and research associated with game theory i n our e f f o r t to deal with the interdependence of 7 i n d i v i d u a l s . 3 . Game theory, through i t s emphasis on the way i n which one person's choice or strategy w i l l a f f e c t the other person's choice appears to hold a great deal of promise as an account of the mutual interdependence we hope to re-present. I t allows one to introduce into the exchange, the recognition of such interdependence on the part of the persons involved, and attempts to account for the ef f e c t s of t h i s recognition. Game theory i s , however, a set of propositions regarding the i d e a l behavior of a r a t i o n a l person. The central concern i s not with the way people a c t u a l l y behave, but with the way i n which they should behave i f they were behaving r a t i o n a l l y . Data regarding actual behavior i s some-times introduced, but only as a means of i d e n t i f y i n g the major dilemmas which persons face i n a choice s i t u a t i o n . Since our concern i s not with the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of some best form of inte r a c t i o n , but with the explanation of actual i n t e r a c t i o n , most of the propositions of game theory are inappropriate. On the other hand, there are several developments i n the social-psychological l i t e r a t u r e which use the structure of game theory experiments as a framework for propositions of a descriptive or non-normative form. These experiments provide a convenient format for introducing propositions of i n d i v i d u a l choice behavior into a s o c i a l context. Both i n d i v i d u a l choice and the structure of mutual interdependency are conveniently represented by the game theorist's matrix of outcomes. For our purposes, there are two major t h e o r e t i c a l developments which adopt the framework of game theory experiments. 8 The f i r s t involves the extension of learning theory to the point where propositions can be made regarding multiperson i n t e r a c t i o n . 4 . The bulk of t h i s l i t e r a t u r e rests on the assumption of s t a t i s t i c a l learning theory, and i n most cases involves the development of.mathematical models of learning. The second development which makes extensive use of the game theory experimental form i s to be found within the l i t e r a t u r e on exchange.^* The general orientation i n t h i s l i t e r a t u r e i s toward the development of a t h e o r e t i c a l basis for c o l l e c t i v e variables such as norms, status hierarchies, s o c i a l power re l a t i o n s , etc. Both of these t h e o r e t i c a l developments have some-thing to o f f e r for our concern with dyadic i n t e r a c t i o n . Learning theory provides a set of propositions about i n d i v i d u a l choice behavior at a very s p e c i f i c l e v e l . Since we are i n t e r -ested i n being able to account for interactants" behaviour at each point i n an exchange, the l e v e l of analysis provided by learning theory can be very useful. I t i s , i n addition, consistent with our desire to examine i n t e r a c t i o n i n which coordination i s attempted by both persons involved. Competition or bargaining i s not a necessary prerequisite. Exchange theory offers the p o s s i b i l i t y of generat-ing propositions which are p a r t i c u l a r l y relevant to s o c i a l behaviour. Exchange theorists have developed a set of concepts which re f e r to patterns of interdependence which go far beyond those of learning theory. The notions of "dependence", " s o c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n " , and "norm", for example, are much 9 easier to define and deal with i n the context of an exchange r e l a t i o n than as a consequence of learning p r i n c i p l e s . Exchange theory i n addition, makes the integration of cognitive aspects of behavior a much more d i r e c t matter than does learning theory. One can then include within an account of in t e r a c t i o n , the e f f e c t s of language on behavior. We do not mean to suggest that these two t h e o r e t i c a l developments are mutually exclusive. In fact, the suggestion that there may be some th e o r e t i c a l l i n k s between the two has been implied, and i n some cases e x p l i c i t l y stated i n the l i t e r a t u r e . Our separation of the two areas i s done i n order to make clear what aspects of the two t h e o r e t i c a l developments are most relevant for our concerns. One of the most e x p l i c i t attempts to formulate a t h e o r e t i c a l l i n k between exchange theory and learning theory has been made by R.M. Emerson.^' In his account of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the two types of theory, he has taken the assumptions of operant conditioning and used them to provide a t h e o r e t i c a l basis for an exchange r e l a t i o n s h i p . From t h i s point of view he has then proceeded to define more general concepts such as power, norms and status, and on the basis of these to generate propositions regarding group structure.7* Although his concerns are much more general than ours', the t h e o r e t i c a l associations he has made suggest that learning theory may well provide a reasonable basis for more general s o c i a l theory. I t seems, i n addition, that we might u t i l i z e some aspects of learning theory to deal 10 with the sequential in t e r a c t i o n part of our concern, and s t i l l be able to u t i l i z e exchange theory as a basis for understanding the interdependence of persons. As an i l l u s t r a t i o n of the way t h i s might be done we can re f e r to the work of Kelley, Thibaut, Radloff and Mundy 8 on the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " . " Their research e n t a i l s the examination of the conditions under which the coordination may occur i f persons can only communicate through a simple reward-punishment s i t u a t i o n . Their design e n t a i l s the separ-ation of two subjects by a p a r t i t i o n . The only way that one person can communicate to the other i s through the use of two buttons; one which i s connected to a r e l a t i v e l y b e n e f i c i a l outcome for the other person (a score), and the other i s connected to a r e l a t i v e l y non-beneficial outcome (a mild shock) They were interested i n the conditions under which the indiv -iduals would move to a mutually rewarding outcome. In t h i s research and i n a number of other studies which used a similar design, f i v e factors were considered to a f f e c t the rate at which coordination occurred. The f i r s t factor involved the v a r i a t i o n of the type of response which g subjects were permitted. " In some experiments, the subjects were allowed to respond whenever they chose (the "simultaneous" condition). In others, they were only permitted a response after they had received a stimulus from the other person. This meant that they took turns responding (the "alternating" condition). The second factor involved v a r i a t i o n of the severity of the shock received, 1^" and the t h i r d factor involved v a r i a t i o n of the importance of the reward (operational 11 ized by the value of the po s i t i v e outcome). x x" The fourth factor involved the v a r i a t i o n of the manner i n which i n t e r -dependence was obtained. For one condition, the subjects could give each other a shock only, for another condition, they could give each other a score only, and for a t h i r d condition they could give each other a shock or a score depending on the button which they p u s h e d . f i f t h factor introduced was the awareness which the subjects had of the experimental setup. In the "informed" group, they were t o l d that they were i n t e r -acting with another person and the d e t a i l s of the l i n k s between them were outlined (except, of course, for the information regarding which button was a shock and which was a score). In the "uninformed" group, the subjects were not to l d that they were in t e r a c t i n g with another person. Of these f i v e factors, the influence of the f i r s t four can be explained using two types of t h e o r e t i c a l accounts. The f i r s t i s a behavioral theory of learning and the develop-ment of d i f f e r e n t i a l response rates. The chances of an in d i v i d u a l repeating the button he pushed i s increased i f he received a b e n e f i c i a l outcome from the other subject. If the outcome i s not b e n e f i c i a l , the chance of a repeat i s lowered. Coordination then, i s simply an outcome of the reward-punishment structure of the experiment. The second account i s taken from game theory and i t refers to the strategies which the subjects use. The authors suggest that the subjects use a win-stay/ lose-change strategy i n the experiment. The e f f e c t of such a strategy i s the same as that predicted by the behavioral . 12 account above; i f the subject wins, he repeats his l a s t move, i f he loses, he pushes the other button. On the basis of the experiment to t h i s point, the r e l a t i v e u t i l i t y of the two accounts cannot be determined, although the ad hoc nature of the "strategy" account makes i t the weaker of the two. It i s also the case that to t h i s point, Kelley, et a l . have provided a formulation of in t e r a c t i o n which seems to deal with the central factors i n our concern. Their exper-iment deals with face-to-face i n t e r a c t i o n i n which coordination of the action i s the objective. In addition, the persons are interdependent and they interact over a sequence of exchanges. It i s also formulated at a l e v e l which permits one to make predictions about the l i k e l i h o o d of ce r t a i n responses from t r i a l to t r i a l . So ,far our conditions are s a t i s f i e d . Limitations of the Behavioral . Account There i s one problem which remains, however, when we introduce the f i f t h factor (awareness of the experimental conditions) into the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " . Kelley, et a l . found that i f they informed the subject that he was i n t e r -acting with another person, the time taken for coordination was reduced.-*-4* To account for t h i s they u t i l i z e d the ad hoc proposition that the e f f e c t was due to the subjects' use of the strategy of s t a b i l i z i n g t h e i r own behavior. temporarily and observing whether the other person's behavior was stable (implying that he i s receiving p o s i t i v e scores) or fl u c t u a t i n g (implying that he i s receiving negative scores). There i s a 13 problem with t h i s p a r t i c u l a r account of the behavior since i t merely redefines the pattern of action without placing i t into some more general t h e o r e t i c a l context. I t i s , therefore, more i n the order of a description than an account of the behavior . under study. I t does, however, point to the theor-e t i c a l weakness of the "stragegy" account. A similar problem arises i f we attempt to account for the re s u l t s of t h i s experiment using behavioral X theory. In the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , informing the subjects of the structure of the experiment altered nothing i n the form of the in t e r a c t i o n they had, but i t did a f f e c t the r e s u l t of that i n t e r a c t i o n . The subjects were quicker to coordinate t h e i r behavior. To account for t h i s change, we can no longer depend on the behavioral, theory which has been adequate to t h i s point. To.do so would mean that the set of instructions regarding the experiment would have to be under-stood i n terms of the response rates of the subjects. This would mean that the language and associations of the in s t r u c -tions would have to be interpreted i n terms of reinforcements, rewards or conditioned responses. This may not be an impossible task, but there i s reason to believe that i t i s an 15 extremely d i f f i c u l t one. " I t was m attempting to deal with th i s t h e o r e t i c a l weakness, that the t h i r d major condition i n th i s d i s s e r t a t i o n was introduced. The Introduction of an "Interpretation" As an alternative to an examination of the way i n 14 which the instructions might be included i n a behavioral. account of the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , we began to con-sider modifications of t h i s point of view. The simplest way was to introduce a new factor or factors into the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a stimulus and a response. We could then consider that the instructions have an e f f e c t on these new factors and i n that way influence the response rates. To proceed i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n , we w i l l be introduc-ing into the behavioral . account an hypothetical construct, and with i t a new set of problems. The introduction of such a construct can only be j u s t i f i e d i f i t s i m p l i f i e s what would otherwise.be a very complex explanation. To develop t h i s more complex explanation would take us into the area of language learning and verbal behavior^ Since we were primarily interested i n i n t e r a c t i o n , and not i n the d e t a i l s of a behavioral account of language and behavior, we decided to accept the introduction of an hypothetical construct as a simplifying device. In t h i s way we introduced a mediating process between the receipt of an outcome and the pressing of a button i n the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , or, i n general, between an event and a response. Between the occurrence of an event and the response which an i n d i v i d u a l makes on the basis of that event, we are proposing that a process of interpretation occurs. Certain aspects of the event (stimulus) are s e l e c t i v e l y perceived or emphasized by the i n d i v i d u a l and i t i s t h i s new set of events which are acted upon. In a general sense, the o r i g i n a l event 15 i s "interpreted", and on the basis of that in t e r p r e t a t i o n , a choice i s made. Thus the "same" event may be responded to in d i f f e r e n t ways depending on the p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n made of that event. Although the notion of an inter p r e t a t i o n i s as hypothetical as the idea of a strategy, we f e e l that there are certain advantages to i t s use. A strategy i s a much more inc l u s i v e term than an interpretation; i t refers not only to the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a set of events, but to the consid-eration of future p o s s i b i l i t i e s , the evaluation of ce r t a i n ends or goals and the selection of one over the other. An interpre t a t i o n , on the other hand, can be dealt with as a coding process which i s more e a s i l y related to propositions of a behavioral, nature. As a r e s u l t , propositions regarding change i n interpretations are easier to generate and test than are propositions regarding changes i n strategies. Since the notion of an "interpretation" as we have conceived i t i s viewed as a coding process for events, we do not have to abandon p r i n c i p l e s of behavior theory or learning theory i n order to use i t . As we w i l l show l a t e r , i t i s s t i l l possible to view the "interpretive process" as one in which stimulus-response learning takes place. We are introducing t h i s concept, therefore, not as an alte r n a t i v e to behavioral, learning theory, but as a convenient means by which language and cognitive factors may be introduced into our conceptualization of in t e r a c t i o n . Once we have added the notion of an inter p r e t a t i o n 16 to our o r i g i n a l set of conditions ( i . e . , face-to-face i n t e r -action, coordination of a c t i v i t y , interdependency, and the sequential aspects of i n t e r a c t i o n ) , there are a number of th e o r e t i c a l developments i n s o c i a l theory with which we can deal, besides the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " . We w i l l select two of these by way of i l l u s t r a t i o n : the "double bind" theory of s c h i z o p h r e n i a 1 ^ and the l a b e l l i n g theory of deviance.^ 7 * .  In this way we hope to show how the focus of our attention i s related to a wider range of issues than suggested by the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , i n addition to i l l u s t r a t i n g the type of in t e r a c t i o n which we hope to explain. Example: The Double Bind Theory of Schizophrenia . (DB) The DB theory of schizophrenia ref e r s to the "damned i f you do, damned i f you don't" type of s i t u a t i o n . No matter what the i n d i v i d u a l who i s the "victim" of the sit u a t i o n does, he w i l l be wrong. Take, for example, the student whose professor r i d i c u l e s him i f he pa r t i c i p a t e s i n seminars, yet reprimands him i f he does not. Within the confines of these two alternatives, the i n d i v i d u a l cannot win. The focus of the DB theory i s not primarily on the way i n which c o n f l i c t i s produced i n such situations, but on the way i n which the actors' interpretation of behavior i s affected. The r e s u l t of such a s i t u a t i o n from an information-processing point of view, i s a great deal of uncertainty regard-ing the appropriate interpretation of the other's actions. If the student interprets the professor's actions as r i d i c u l e , he 17 i s informed v i a the reprimand that he i s wrong. However, i f he interprets the act as something other than r i d i c u l e , he w i l l exhibit abnormal responses to the occurrence of r i d i c u l e i n th i s and other situations. The abnormal responses which we might expect are very similar to the responses which are found associated to some forms of schizophrenia, Bateson claims. We might note as well that the re s u l t s of such.a si t u a t i o n are dependent on a series of repeated interactions of the sort we are considering. In that sense, the professor-student example i s limited. The type of exchange i t r e f e r s to could be seen as a single episode. In such a case, we would not expect that the res u l t s predicted by Bateson, et a l . would emerge. Should i t be part of a lengthy set of i n t e r -actions, however, there would be s u f f i c i e n t time for the abnormal interpretations and responses to be learned and possibly extended to situations beyond that represented i n our example. Once that has occurred, the prediction made by the authors of the DB theory are l i k e l y to be observed. This emphasis i s consistent with our concern for a sequence of actions rather than with i n d i v i d u a l acts. In order for the persons involved to develop a set of in t e r p r e t -ations to the point where a contradiction i n injunctions i s made, a history of communication i s required. In addition, i t i s only a f t e r a series of such contradictions that the effects of the DB on interpretations i s produced. Without a sequence of interactions i t i s presumed that the exchange may produce c o n f l i c t or confusion, but not the development of 18 abnormal modes of a c t i o n which the DB theory seeks to e x p l a i n . The t h i r d c o n d i t i o n i n our concern , tha t of interdependence between the i n t e r a c t a n t s , i s a l s o b a s i c to the DB theory . The problems, o f ^ c o o r d i n a t i o n are: not viewed as problems of each i n d i v i d u a l , but problems which a r i s e as the r e s u l t of each o t h e r ' s a c t i o n . As one person attempts to a n t i c i p a t e an a c t i o n of the other and to respond a p p r o p r i a t e l y , he i n a d v e r t a n t l y a f f e c t s the b a s i s fo r tha t a c t i o n i n such a way as to i nc rea se the l ike l ihood o f the a c t i o n o c c u r r i n g . The same procedure i s repeated as the i n t e r a c t a n t s attempt to develop a r e l i a b l e se t of expec ta t ions on t ha t new b a s i s . In the p rev ious example, the student can be seen as one whose attempt to s a t i s f y the demand to speak c rea tes a b a s i s fo r r i d i c u l e . S i m i l a r l y , the p r o f e s s o r ' s demand f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n inc reases the l i ke l ihood of s i l e n c e . I t i s i n t h i s type of i n t e r a c t i o n tha t the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the DB a r i s e . In the same way tha t c e r t a i n aspects of the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " cou ld not e a s i l y be e x p l a i n e d by a b e h a v i o r a l , theory a lone , the phenomenon d e a l t w i t h by the DB theory must r e f e r to an h y p o t h e t i c a l process of i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . In order to account fo r the phenomenon of schozophrenia , the authors have in t roduced the idea of a c o n f l i c t between i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n s . The problems of communication which are p r e d i c t e d by the theo ry , are problems of making the proper i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of ac t s and events fo r both onese l f and fo r o t h e r s . The DB theory i s one of the few t h e o r i e s which dea l s e x p l i c i t l y w i t h a l l those aspects of i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h 19 which we are concerned. This i s usually because most theories of i n t e r a c t i o n are developed at a more general l e v e l of s p e c i f i c i t y . Nevertheless, we f e e l that many of the issues with which we are concerned are issues related to these more general theories. As an example of t h i s type of theory we w i l l examine the i n t e r a c t i o n i s t theories of deviance which focus on the l a b e l l i n g process. Example: The Labelling Theories of Deviance Most l a b e l l i n g theories of deviance assume that interactants are interdependent and that interpretations are important i n understanding i n t e r a c t i o n . The special feature of the theories of the l a b e l l i n g process i s the way i n which they combine these two assumptions with the sequential aspects of i n t e r a c t i o n . Several of the i n t e r a c t i o n theories of deviance, for example, suggest that the l a b e l l i n g of a deviant may be much more the r e s u l t of the accumulated e f f e c t or q u a l i t a t i v e s h i f t s of several minor incidents over time rather than than the r e s u l t of one single e v e n t . S a m p s o n , Messinger and Towne suggest that i t i s only after the successive ''collapse of accommodative patterns between the future (mental) patient and his interpersonal community"x^* that i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n i s considered. To the patient, Goffman suggests, t h i s i s experienced as a "kind of betrayal funnel" i n which "Passage from person to patient may be effected through a series of linked stages, each managed by a d i f f e r e n t agent." Minor 20 variations from expected behavior, for example, may be s u f f i c -i e nt to r a i s e the p o s s i b i l i t y that " a l l i s not well" with a f r i e n d . Once t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y i s raised, i t increases the chance that future acts w i l l be interpreted as evidence for that b e l i e f . I t may, i n addition, e f f e c t a s h i f t i n the type of behavior we show to that fri e n d , thus increasing the possib-i l i t y that his behavior w i l l be "strange". Through the accumulation of such "strange" behaviors and the q u a l i t a t i v e s h i f t s i n behavior which are produced, the communication and behavior may become more and more d i f f i c u l t to comprehend and h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n may occur. Once h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n occurs, the same type of process may continue, with the establishment of h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n i t s e l f serving as a basis for interpreting future a c t s / 1 ' To the extent that we are concerned with making predictions about s p e c i f i c acts i n an exchange, we w i l l have to develop a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t formulation than the i n t e r -a c t i o n i s t s , however. In order to account for the course of an in t e r a c t i o n , we must f i n d categories of acts which assure that the assignment of acts to categories i s unequivocable. I t i s with respect to t h i s necessity for a precise and general c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of acts that the language of the i n t e r a c t i o n i s t s i s i n s u f f i c i e n t . Up to t h i s point i n time, most of the empir-i c a l research of the i n t e r a c t i o n i s t s has focussed on the way i n which p a r t i c u l a r labels or i d e n t i t i e s are developed or changed i n i n t e r a c t i o n . The main problem with these studies from our point of view i s that they are often relevant only 21 to the i d e n t i t y under consideration and they do not allow propositions to be made about the process of establishing labels or interpretations i n general. One can f i n d research on the process by which persons are i d e n t i f i e d as mentally i l l or homosexual, for example, but very l i t t l e regarding the s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n process for the two lab e l s . In those cases where general propositions are developed, they are usually formulated at a l e v e l of analysis which does not permit one to make predictions regarding the evolution of p a r t i c u l a r acts i n an exchange. This i s due, on the one hand, to the d i f f i c u l t y of measuring some of the c r u c i a l variables i n a s p e c i f i c i n t e r a c t i o n sequence, and, on the other hand, to the limi t e d range of a p p l i c a b i l i t y of some of the categories. Goffman, for example, r e l i e s heavily on such notions as "deference", "demeanor", "embarrassment" and the "rules of conduct"; a l l variables which are either extremely d i f f i c u l t to measure or they are not mutually exclusive and thus do not permit predictions regarding a p a r t i c u l a r sequence to be made. Research Strategies It i s i n trying to deal with the problem of pre-d i c t i o n that we a f f e c t the l e v e l of our research to the greatest extent. Since we would l i k e to develop t h e o r e t i c a l propositions which allow us to predict over sequences of acts, we are necessarily engaged i n the problem of trying to use variables which are s u f f i c i e n t l y general to represent a wide 22 range of actions, yet not so general as to make the propositions about those actions untestable. Since we were concerned with developing propositions regarding the e f f e c t s of in t e r a c t i o n over a series of acts, the p o s s i b i l i t y of using simulation techniques for the development of the theory was considered. Such a procedure would be a great advantage since i t provides a means of reducing the time required to examine the implica-tions of a p a r t i c u l a r t h e o r e t i c a l model for a long sequence of acts. If one can specify a single exchange sequence with s u f f i c i e n t c l a r i t y to simulate i t , then i t becomes a r e l a t i v e l y simple operation to see what would happen over a series of such sequences by using computer or l o g i c a l techniques. Although we w i l l not include a f u l l simulation of our t h e o r e t i c a l model i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , we mention t h i s issue because i t has influenced the l e v e l of t h e o r e t i c a l devel-opment used. Since we hope to move i n the future to simulation techniques, we have u t i l i z e d concepts and propositions which are consistent with such a strategy. I t also means that we have been w i l l i n g to propose a s p e c i f i c set of propositions regarding how individuals make choices even though they are hypothetical at many points. We f e e l that the problems of i d e n t i f i c a t i o n which such a strategy poses are o f f s e t by the advantages which i t offers for t h e o r e t i c a l elaboration of inte r a c t i o n processes over time. One further e f f e c t of our concern with testing our conceptualization of inte r a c t i o n i s that we have had to se t t l e for research which relates to only a small part of our 23 framework. At the l e v e l of generality i n which our conceptual framework i s developed, there i s r e a l l y no way that the entire framework can be subjected to an empirical t e s t . As an alt e r n a t i v e , we have decided to focus on only one aspect of : the framework, develop propositions regarding i t , and then subject that aspect to a test. This i s a long way from con-ducting a " f i n a l " t e s t of a theory, but i t does provide a basis for explicating the conceptual framework i n a manner which integrates theory with empirical investigation. 24 CHAPTER 2 - A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF INTERACTION A basic condition with which we began t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s that the persons i n i n t e r a c t i o n are mutually-interdependent. This means that one person's action at one time may a f f e c t not only the other's action, but through that other person, i t may a f f e c t his own action at a l a t e r time. Under such conditions the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of influence between persons over a series of exchanges may soon become very complex. Since the complexity i s seen to be the r e s u l t of the interdependency and not necessarily the process by which each person chooses his action, i t may be that r e l a t i v e l y simple choice processes produce complex patterns of i n t e r a c t i o n over time. This leaves us with the p o s s i b i l i t y of accounting for a wide range of behavior by using very simple t h e o r e t i c a l propositions about how people make choices. I t i s on the basis of t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y that our strategy of conceptualization w i l l be developed. In addition to the e f f e c t of interdependence between interactants we have mentioned a second factor which might increase the complexity found i n most in t e r a c t i o n s i t u a -tions. This factor i s the interpretation of acts. We have given a central position i n our conceptual framework to the e f f e c t which such interpretations might have on i n t e r a c t i o n . Since we assume that the same act may be interpreted i n many d i f f e r e n t ways at d i f f e r e n t times, we make i t possible for a great deal of ambiguity to be introduced into i n t e r a c t i o n . 25 This ambiguity i s not unwelcome from a t h e o r e t i c a l point of view. I t may stem from a r e l a t i v e l y simple process of i n t e r -pretation development and change, thus allowing a great deal of explanatory power to such a process. We w i l l assume that t h i s i s the case and develop our research strategy on that basis. Since the process of interpretation change i s to be integrated into the conceptualization of the choice process, we w i l l begin our discussion with an account of the meaning Of interpretations. The p a r t i c u l a r d e f i n i t i o n we w i l l give to t h i s concept i s designed to provide a conceptual l i n k be-tween a s t a t i c understanding of the term and one which can be applied to a sequential i n t e r a c t i o n s i t u a t i o n . In the process of making t h i s l i n k , we w i l l also t i e the notion of i n t e r -pretations of sequential events to the concept of expectations. On the Concept of "Interpretations" We have chosen to introduce the hypothetical con-struct of an "interpretation" into the process of i n d i v i d u a l choice since i t seems to simplify d r a s t i c a l l y the explanation necessary for phenomena such as the "minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " and the DB theory of schizophrenia. The precedent for such a concept i s found i n many areas i n the s o c i a l sciences, from l i n g u i s t i c s to psychology. In most of t h i s l i t e r a t u r e , however, the notion of an i n t e r -pretation i s developed with regard to c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of o b j e c t s , 2 3 , or single a c t s , 2 4 * rather than sequences of acts. Our problem w i l l be to give the concept of interpretation some 26 t h e o r e t i c a l meaning with r e s p e c t to such sequences. In order t o do so, the f i r s t s tep w i l l be t o r e l a t e the concept of i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t o the concept of e x p e c t a t i o n . C o o r d i n a t i o n of a c t i v i t y between persons depends on the a b i l i t y o f each person to a n t i c i p a t e to some extent the behavior of the o t h e r . Before we say " h e l l o " t o a s t r a n g e r , i t i s necessary to make some assumptions about whether he speaks our language, w i l l welcome the g e s t u r e , or i s about to a t t a c k us. D i f f e r e n t tasks and d i f f e r e n t s i t u a t i o n s w i l l a f f e c t the d e t a i l w i t h which such e x p e c t a t i o n s are developed, of course, but f o r our purposes i t i s s u f f i c i e n t to c l a i m t h a t some a n t i c i p a t i o n s of a c t i o n o c c u r s . In a sequence of a c t i o n s , such e x p e c t a t i o n s can o n l y be generated i f the p r e s e n t a c t i s p e r c e i v e d t o be a 25 p a r t of a p a t t e r n of a c t i o n which i s as y e t incomplete. For example, i f we saw a man board a bus we might expect t h a t he would soon p l a c e a t i c k e t or money i n the box, s i n c e paying f o r a bus r i d e i s u s u a l l y p a r t o f a p a t t e r n of a c t i v i t y which i n c l u d e s such t h i n g s as w a i t i n g a t the bus stop, g e t t i n g on, paying, e t c . Should the passenger put a gum wrapper i n the box we would be s u r p r i s e d , s i n c e t h a t i s not u s u a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the a c t s which preceeded i t . I t i s t h i s p r o c e s s of r e l a t i n g an a c t to p r e v i o u s a c t i o n which we w i l l r e f e r t o as the process of i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . We may note a t t h i s p o i n t t h a t the concept of an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n as we have o u t l i n e d i t , may be r e p r e s e n t e d w i t h i n the framework of an a s s o c i a t i o n theory of behavior or concepts. 27 If we int e r p r e t the process of r e l a t i n g one act to another as the development of a type of associational t i e , the language of associations can be used. Thus, the generation of interpretations might be seen as the assignment or reassignment of weights to various associations, either at a cognitive or behavioral l e v e l . We do not intend to f u l l y elaborate t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l l i n k at t h i s time, but i t i s mentioned as an ind i c a t i o n of the p o s s i b l e ' u t i l i t y of our conceptualization for other t h e o r e t i c a l developments. Once an interpretation of an act i s made, i t may provide a. basis upon which expectations of future acts may be generated. Since the act i s i d e n t i f i e d with reference to some pattern of events, we may expect future actions to be consistent with the completion of that pattern. Only i n the case where the pattern i s complete does the inter p r e t a t i o n f a i l to provide a basis for generating expectations. In our example above, we might expect the passenger to proceed to a seat (or stand i f the bus i s crowded) after placing a t i c k e t i n the box, to signal when he wants to get o f f , and to get of f when the bus stops. A l l these actions are consistent with the pattern which we might c a l l "taking a bus r i d e " . A f t e r the person has got o f f the bus, that pattern i s terminated and we must look to another pattern i n order to form an expectation of his action. This pattern may be more general (e.g., "going to work") or more s p e c i f i c (e.g., "walking"), but once i d e n t i f i e d i t can provide a basis for expectation at lea s t at some l e v e l . In t h i s way then, the concept of an inter p r e t a t i o n 28 i n sequential action i s linked with the idea of expectations insofar as an expected event requires an interpreted one. At the same time, we have linked the concept of an inter p r e t a t i o n to a consideration of the acts which preceeded that action, and to the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of that action as part of a pattern of acts. To the extent that one has i d e n t i f i e d a pattern i n the acts occuring i n an int e r a c t i o n , we w i l l consider that he has made an interpretation of those acts. For example, i f I were to perceive that a l l your acts toward me were b e n e f i c i a l to me, I might expect that they would continue to be so. As we have outlined our use of the concept of interpr e t a t i o n , we would consider that I had interpreted your acts i n a p a r t i c u l a r manner (we have attached the lab e l " b e n e f i c i a l " to that interpretation) which generates an expectation about what I might expect from you i n the future. Whether t h i s a n t i c i p a t i o n occurs at a conscious or unconscious l e v e l i s of secondary importance to the above proposition. We are merely suggesting that one treats the persons involved as i f they considered the possible outcomes of t h e i r action.^7. i t i s necessary for them, at some l e v e l , to be aware of t h e i r own a c t i v i t i e s , the other persons' acts and aspects of th e i r environment, but i t i s not necessary that a l l these things are consciously considered i n the process of inte r a c t i n g . There i s one aspect of our use of "interpretation" i n the example above which can be used to make the concept applicable to a wide range of issues outside of the context of 29 sequential i n t e r a c t i o n . When we referred to the l i n g u i s t i c category of " b e n e f i c i a l " as a category which might express an interpretation of a person's action, i t was used merely as a shorthand way of i d e n t i f y i n g that pattern of everyday action which I perceived. In a similar way, the use of categories which i d e n t i f y types of communication or interpretations of events (e.g., "angry", "helpful", "necessary") can be seen as convenient ways of i d e n t i f y i n g a certa i n pattern of events which one has found or expects to f i n d . For example, we might i n t e r -pret an individual's act to be " f r i e n d l y " , " h o s t i l e " or "confused". We w i l l consider each of those terms to be s i g n i f i c a n t insofar as i t points to a pattern of action which has occurred and may continue to occur on the part of that i n d i v i d u a l . If the person's actions are generally b e n e f i c i a l to us, we say he i s "f r i e n d l y " , i f they are harmful we say he i s " h o s t i l e " , i f they are unpredictable, we say he i s "confused" or "confusing". By viewing the categories " f r i e n d l y " , " h o s t i l e " or "confused" as meaningful only with respect to patterns of action, our previous use of the concept of interpretation i s shown to be related to a more common type of usage of the term. The use of t h i s conceptualization of "interpretations" can be found i n philosophy and psychology. G. Ryle, i n his discussion of human motives treated the a t t r i b u t i o n of motives as an inference from patterns which are perceived i n behavior. 2 8* A man who i s greedy, for example, i s a man who i n the past has always kept things for himself and who we can expect to keep things i n the future. The term "greedy" becomes a convenient 30 shorthand form of i d e n t i f y i n g a r e l a t i v e l y complex set of behaviors. A t t r i b u t i o n theory can be seen as an extension of th i s perspective to the point where various conditions necessary for the a t t r i b u t i o n of motives or causes are specified.29. H.H. Kelley, i n his discussion of the a t t r i b u t i o n process refers to the inter p r e t a t i o n of events as a l o g i c a l operation based on a series of c r i t e r i a for testing the v a l i d i t y of the a t t r i b u t i o n . He suggests that persons u t i l i z e the four c r i t e r i a of " d i s t i n c t -iveness", "consistency over time", "consistency over modality" and consensus" i n order to es t a b l i s h that t h e i r a t t r i b u t i o n s or interpretations about others' behavior, are v a l i d . Although the a t t r i b u t i o n theorists focus primarily on the process by which v e r i f i c a t i o n i s established, t h e i r theory implies that a t t r i b u t i o n s are representations for patterns of behavior i n the same way that we have used the notion of "interpretations". D.T. Campbell, i n his discussion of attitudes implies a similar p e r s p e c t i v e . 3 1 - He proposes that attitudes be treated as r e f l e c t i o n s of behavioral patterns, either experienced or anticipated. He suggests that by so doing, one does not lose explanatory power and at the same time one gains by making propositions about attitudes easier to t e s t . In a similar way, we expect that such a view of the notion of "interpretations" w i l l enable us to develop propositions regard-ing changes i n sequential behavior. Although none of the examples above deals i n d e t a i l with behavior over time, they are a l l consistent with an 31 approach which views interpretations or at t r i b u t i o n s as representations of behavior over time. In the case of a t t r i b -ution theory there i s a d i s t i n c t i o n made between behavior patterns over time and patterns over modality, but there i s no suggestion made that the process of establishing v a l i d i t y i n each case i s d i f f e r e n t . The a t t r i b u t i o n theorists are prim-a r i l y concerned with the type of information considered for ve r i f y i n g a t t r i b u t i o n s , not with the d e t a i l s of the process of confirmation. Our focus on t h i s process i n the second section of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n may then be seen as an attempt to develop t h i s aspect of th e i r theory, at lea s t insofar as the dimension of time i s concerned. Up to t h i s point we have made a t h e o r e t i c a l d i s t i n c t i o n between acts and the inter p r e t a t i o n of acts, yet conceived of interpretations as r e f l e c t i n g the perception of certai n patterns of acts. I t i s clear from t h i s conceptual-i z a t i o n that the rel a t i o n s h i p between interpretations of acts over time i s not a simple one. The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a pa r t i c u l a r pattern of action at one time w i l l influence the way i n which subsequent acts are perceived i n a sequence of action. For example, i f we view an individual's action as threatening up to a certain time, we w i l l more l i k e l y see a smile on his part as devious, than i f we had perceived his previous actions to be f r i e n d l y . Our response to his "devious" smile may i n turn serve to increase the chance that his acts w i l l continue to be threatening i n the future. Such processes can be seen as those of the " s e l f f u l f i l l i n g prophecy" type which Merton and Rosenthal have explored i n d e t a i l . 32 When we consider the function of language i n the development of interpretations, we f i n d that there i s a s i m i l a r nesting type of r e l a t i o n s h i p between l i n g u i s t i c categories as there i s with the interpretation of acts over time. Just as acts may be interpreted i n various ways (and expressed i n l i n g u i s t i c categories), so can these interpretations be seen as elements of more general patterns which, i n turn, form the basis for more general interpretations. This l o g i c a l p o s s i b i l i t y forms the basis for the idea of a " l o g i c a l l e v e l " of analysis which plays an important part i n the DB theory. 3 3 . As a t h e o r e t i c a l consideration, the p o s s i b i l i t y of persons developing interpretations of interpretations provides a powerful explanatory notion for complex behavior. I t means that persons can i d e n t i f y more and more abstract patterns of events or behavior, successfully adapt to a wider var i e t y of situations and communicate a great deal of information very quickly. For example, instead of describing the behavior one might f i n d at each bus stop, one can t a l k about "getting on the bus", and i n turn, one can talk about getting on the bus as part of more:.general types of i n t e r a c t i o n . The elaboration of such general patterns and the integration of them into our language may be considered as a major factor i n the organization of behavior. 3 4 ' From an empirical point of view, however, we are l e f t with a problem. If we are to examine the process by which interpretations are i d e n t i f i e d or changed, we can never be i n a position where either previous interpretations or more 33 general interpretations do not play a part i n persons' behav-i o r . This means that we can only deal with the change of interpretations within a context of previous interpretations. For example, we w i l l f i n d i n our experimental procedures that the instructions given to the subjects play an important r o l e i n biasing the patterns of events which they expect to f i n d . A Conceptual Framework for Interaction On the basis of t h i s account of interpretations, we can now begin to specify a general conceptual framework for information-processing on the part of individuals i n an inte r a c t i o n . We w i l l view persons as processors of informatii who interpret events and make decisions about t h e i r future actions on the basis of these interpretations. Within any sit u a t i o n both interpretations and decisions are not s t a t i c , but s h i f t from moment to moment. We w i l l focus not on the substance of these s h i f t s , but on the possible r e g u l a r i t i e s we may f i n d i n the way i n which these s h i f t s occur. The behavior of a dyad i s then proposed to be the r e s u l t of a series of such decisions i n which one decision a f f e c t s the li k e l i h o o d of the next occurring. At the most general l e v e l , we are viewing i n t e r -action as the r e s u l t of two ind i v i d u a l s ' cognitive systems with a communication l i n k between them. This means that we must specify our assumptions regarding the way i n which an in d i v i d u a l might process the information he receives, and then t i e them into a system of communication. 34 Within t h i s framework, we w i l l f i n d that a con-venient way of conceiving of acts of individ u a l s i s as a sequence of emissions (the acts) from a p a r t i c u l a r source (the i n d i v i d u a l ) . Following t h i s lead we can then f i n d an analogy for the problem faced by individuals i n int e r a c t i o n i n the th e o r e t i c a l developments of sequential analysis .3-> • This i s a technique of analysis f or situations where one must make judgements about c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the source of some emissions on the basis of patterns i n the emissions which one receives. A t y p i c a l problem of sequential analysis, for example, would be to make a judgement about the qual i t y of a batch of tra n s i s t o r s as they come off the assembly l i n e . By examining the qu a l i t y of a short sequence of these t r a n s i s t o r s a reasonably accurate judgement can be made, not only of the quality of the batch, but of whether i t i s necessary to con-tinue sampling i n order to s a t i s f y a p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l of s t a t i s t i c a l confidence. We w i l l view the problem of in t e r a c t i o n i n a sim-i l a r way. In an int e r a c t i o n , one i s confronted with a sequence of behavior from another person, and on the basis of that sequence one must make a judgement about the l i k e l y sequences one can expect i n the future. As we have pointed out i n our discussion of the notion of interpretations, t h i s can be considered the same as the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g some ch a r a c t e r i s t i c of an i n d i v i d u a l ,on the basis of his behavior. The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of such a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c (e.g., he i s "friendly") w i l l then serve as a basis for the prediction of 35 future acts on the part of that person. At t h i s l e v e l i t i s analogous to the judgement of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a population of t r a n s i s t o r s on the basis of a sequence observed from that population. The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the population, once i d e n t i f i e d , serves as the basis for generating expectations about future occurrences. In a s i t u a t i o n where the source of emissions i s unchanging, the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the source may be r e l a t i v e l y straightforward. However, we would l i k e to develop theories about an i n t e r a c t i o n i n which one person's action may a f f e c t the state of the other and thus the nature of the other's responses. The s i t u a t i o n then becomes more l i k e that of the s o c i a l science researcher whose measuring technique affects the variables he i s attempting to study. 3^ -' The very process of try i n g to f i n d out what pro-duces the behavior studied ends up a f f e c t i n g i t s nature -. This p o s s i b i l i t y makes the research problem extremely d i f f i c u l t , for ourselves as well as for our hypothetical s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t . However, to include i t as a central feature of interpersonal i n t e r a c t i o n makes i t a very powerful explanatory concept. Most of the l i t e r a t u r e on the s e l f - f u l f i l l i n g prophecy for example, postulates a mechanism of feedback such as the one we outlined above. In t h i s case i t i s proposed that the expectations of an i n d i v i d u a l (as r e f l e c t e d i n his behavior.) are a major causal factor of his expectations being f u l f i l l e d . In the i n t e r a c t i o n i s t l i t e r a t u r e as well, the development and maintenance of deviant careers i s often considered to be -3 Q dependent on a similar process.• • In t h i s case, the 36 i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a person's behavior as "strange" and the subsequent reactions to his behavior on that assumption i s considered to be a main factor i n the l a b e l l i n g of that person as "mentally i l l " , "homosexual" or i n some other way "deviant". Each action i n the exchange taken one at a time i s not s u f f i c i e n t to account for the development of the l a b e l , but i t i s the r e s u l t of an accumulation of exchanges; each one moving the relat i o n s h i p farther and farther from i t s o r i g i n a l p o s i t i o n . Individual Cognitive Operations In order to complete the general conceptualization, i t i s necessary to make some s p e c i f i c propositions regarding the way i n which the individuals i n an in t e r a c t i o n w i l l process the information that they receive. The processes we w i l l introduce are based on the general i n t e r a c t i o n model suggested above, but they introduce features of i n d i v i d u a l behavior which w i l l allow us to make predictions about s p e c i f i c types of behavior. As the general conceptualization suggests, persons are expected to i d e n t i f y some c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the other i n d i v i d u a l on the basis of his behavior, and then use t h i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c as a basis for the prediction of future acts by that person. This suggests a two-step model for in d i v i d u a l action; the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c or character-i s t i c s , and the choice of action based on that i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . The processes involved i n each of these steps might be very 37 d i f f e r e n t . In our discussion of the concept of interpretations, we had suggested that the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c might be considered equivalent to an interpretation of a sequence of acts as part of a pattern of acts. Through such a process, past actions become associated to present ones and to the p o s s i b i l i t i e s for future actions. I f , for example, on the basis of a number of unexpected reactions, we had come to question our inter p r e t a t i o n of our friend's behavior, we might t r y to fin d some interpretation which would make sense of those reactions. If one i s found, i t would allow us to i d e n t i f y those reactions as part of a pattern and to form a basis on which future actions might be anticipated. This i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of some past action as part of a pattern i s the f i r s t step of the two-step process. We w i l l r e f e r to t h i s as the "interpretive process". The second step of the indiv i d u a l ' s cognitive operations i s one which generates a response on the basis of the in t e r p r e t a t i o n made i n the f i r s t step. Once we have decided that our friend i s "upset", and even i f we interpret i t as a sign of his recent divorce, (for example), we are s t i l l i n a po s i t i o n where we have many possible courses of action for responding to him. The interpretation we have made does l i m i t the range of responses to some extent, but i t i s not l i k e l y to be s u f f i c i e n t to account for the actual response we make to him. The process by which t h i s f i n a l response i s made, we w i l l refer to as the "decision process". 38 Whereas i n the int e r p r e t i v e process we w i l l emphasize theories of perception and cognition, i n the decision process we w i l l u t i l i z e theories which involve the consider-ation of u t i l i t i e s , preferences and outcome l i k e l i h o o d s . In both of these processes, we w i l l r e l y to a great extent on theories of learning i n order to account for the way i n which associations between actions and interpretations are developed and changed. The s p e c i f i c theories which we use w i l l be discussed as we d e t a i l the two processes. Divisions similar to the two processes we have i d e n t i f i e d are not new to the psychological l i t e r a t u r e . For example, D.H. Lawrence suggests the p o s s i b i l i t y of introducing 39 a "coding response" into the stimulus-response paradigm." By the "coding response" he refers to an operation which codes sensory input into a p a r t i c u l a r code item. This means that the sti m u l i are transformed according to a set of rules into some kind of representation of the s t i m u l i , much l i k e the behavior of the Other i n our formulation i s transformed according to the in t e r p r e t i v e process into an int e r p r e t a t i o n of the behavior. I t i s t h i s representation of the stimulus (in Lawrence's terms, the "stimulus-as-coded") which i s d i r e c t l y associated with the overt behavior. There are as well a number of theories of signal detection which make a d i s t i n c t i o n between an ac t i v a t i o n process 40. and a decision process. Since the characterization of each of these processes i s usually i n the symbolic language of mathematics, they have i n general, wide a p p l i c a b i l i t y and 39 the p o s s i b i l i t y of encompassing several d i f f e r e n t substantive theories of the process. Many d i f f e r e n t processes may be invoked for the manner i n which the transformation p r o b a b i l i t i e s might be developed and changed. Most of these signal detection theories locate the learning process (which involves changes i n the t r a n s i t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s ) i n the alt e r a t i o n s of the parameters i n the decision process alone. Since the acti v a t i o n process i n these models i s most sim i l a r to the int e r p r e t i v e process i n our theory, the fixed parameters i n that process w i l l not provide the opportunity for change which the i n t e r -pretive process proposes.' In spite of t h i s , however, the formal techniques demonstrated i n signal detection theory are useful for the derivations from the model which we w i l l specify. In the l i t e r a t u r e of physiology as well, there i s some in d i c a t i o n that i n d i v i d u a l action might be u s e f u l l y seen as the r e s u l t of two major steps. As a r e s u l t of i n v e s t i g -ations of speech defects, A.H. Luria, suggests a d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n between an in s t r u c t i o n centre and an action centre to account 41. for c e r t a i n behavioral problems. * His work focuses primarily on the function of speech i n the formulation of instructions for action. The evidence i n his investigations suggests a close r e l a t i o n s h i p between speech i n s t r u c t i o n and the a b i l i t y to act, p a r t i c u l a r l y at a c o r t i c a l l e v e l , or where subcortical damage has occurred. Both leve l s appear to operate quite independently, even to the point where one can take over some functions of the other should there be the need. 40 Another physiological study by H.R. Schaffer makes the same d i s t i n c t i o n between c o r t i c a l and subcortical a c t i v i t y and suggests that stress may increase the amount of subcortical a c t i v i t y i n problem-solving.^• Both of these formulations are consistent with a d i v i s i o n of action into two major areas; one having to do with complex conceptual operations (involving strong t i e s with language) and one having to do with simpler operations such as those proposed i n association learning. The former i s analogous to our "interpretive process" and the l a t t e r to our "decision process". A Model for Interaction In the development of our conceptualization we have made a d i s t i n c t i o n between an in d i v i d u a l action process and an in t e r a c t i o n system. That t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n i s somewhat arbi t r a r y i s r e f l e c t e d i n the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the i n d i v i d u a l action model which follows. The f i r s t two elements of the model r e f e r to concepts which are not simply about i n d i v i d u a l s , but about the l i n k s between persons. The f i r s t l i m i t s our concern to individuals i n int e r a c t i o n and the second provides a basis for communication between persons. These two elements are necessary i n order to move from i n d i v i d u a l action to dyadic in t e r a c t i o n . They occur at t h i s point i n the discussion because they are basic elements of the i n d i v i d u a l action model. We w i l l present the action model i n the notation of set theory. This i s meant more as an h e u r i s t i c device than as an attempt to present a formal theory of action. I t w i l l 41 allow a reasonably clear reference point for the elaboration of the conceptualization i n the future, as well as a means of integrating possible disparate research enterprises. A similar format w i l l be adopted when we come to operationalize various aspects of the conceptual framework i n the second section of th i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . We w i l l i d e n t i f y particular, assumptions which we f e e l are central to the operationalization, but we w i l l not provide an account of a l l the assumptions made i n the process. S . l . Set P = {x,y,z,...,q} This set consists of the persons or groups i n the int e r a c t i o n . Up to t h i s point we have mentioned only two individuals i n our discussion. The s p e c i f i c a t i o n of set P allows the p o s s i b i l i t y of three or more persons to be included i n the i n t e r a c t i o n . Although we w i l l not develop t h i s condition i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i t i s not without p l a u s i b i l i t y and for t h i s reason we allow the general statement of the conceptual framework to include more than two. The i n t e r a c t i o n system as i t i s s p e c i f i e d may also be applicable to groups, and the relat i o n s h i p between groups. There are several examples i n the l i t e r a t u r e of p o l i t i c a l r e l a t i o n s where models of i n d i v i d u a l r e l a t i o n s have been 43 f r u i t f u l l y applied to the rel a t i o n s h i p between groups. For t h i s reason, we are leaving open the p o s s i b i l i t y of including groups i n the model. 42 S.2. Set C = {a,b,c,...n} This set refers to communicative acts which persons may perform. For our purposes, a communicative act must be recognizable by a l l the interactants. By recognition we do not mean to imply conscious awareness only, but include as well perceptions of a c t i v i t y 'below* the conscious l e v e l . The central consideration i s that the a c t i v i t y must be available for perception and not hidden to view or below some threshold of recognition. In t h i s way each act has a pot e n t i a l for influencing the other person. One l i n e of empirical invest-igation would be the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of those factors which influence such perception. I t i s clear that the d e f i n i t i o n of an act at t h i s l e v e l leaves a great deal to be desired insofar as c l a r i t y i s concerned. Our strategy w i l l be to tolerate t h i s u n c l a r i t y at t h i s point since i t allows a wide range of application, but to place severe constraints on i t when i t comes to the form-ulation of a p a r t i c u l a r example. S.3. Set I = {i,j,k,...p} This set consists of interpretations which may be assigned to communicative acts. 43 In order to form a basis for developing the notion of interpretations as a coding process, we w i l l take a s l i g h t diversion i n the discussion. The idea of a code was o r i g i n a l l y used i n theories regarding the communication of information. In that context, i t referred to the process by which language, or the elements of a language, were transformed into another set of elements. For example, the code devised by Morse was one which transformed l e t t e r s or sometimes words into sequences of sounds or l i g h t s of a c e r t a i n duration. These sequences could then be trans-mitted by means which the o r i g i n a l l e t t e r s or words could not. (E.g., l i g h t or e l e c t r i c a l impulse) The code consisted of a set of correspondence rules regarding the l e t t e r s and sequences. So long as the persons at both ends of the l i n e used the same rules, messages could be sent and understood. Since that time much work has been done on the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of codes themselves. 4 4* This work has generated a set of theorems and conceptualizations of the implications of codes which makes the term useful for many other situations besides the transmission of messages i n a narrow sense. A c r u c i a l aspect i n the expansion of the notion of code has been the l i n k between codes and structure or pattern. Codes impose a structure on otherwise random events. This may be done i n a number of ways. A code may extract only certain aspects of the event i n the way that an ear responds only to physical vibrations or a r u l e r i s sensitive only to 44. distance. In the former example, the mechanisms of the ear transform an event into vibrations and eventually e l e c t r i c a l impulses to the brain. In the l a t t e r example, the r u l e r transforms the event into a value on a scale. By the u t i l i z -ation of a code, the events which occur are transformed into some other event which i s part of a pattern or structure of events. Such a coding operation i s consistent with our view of the way i n which meaning i s given to events i n an in t e r a c t i o n sequence. We w i l l assume that the events which occur are nonmeaningful to the interactants u n t i l they are associated with patterns of acts which the actors conceive. The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of such patterns can be considered as a type of coding operation i n which events are related to other events. There are a number of ways i n which we might a n a l y t i c a l l y represent the pattern or structure of such coding operations. Each representation involves two factors, however: a set of code items and a set of rules of correspond-ence between events and the code items. The rules of correspondence may be represented i n two d i f f e r e n t ways, although at a t h e o r e t i c a l l e v e l they are equivalent. F i r s t of a l l , we might think of the code as a set of constraints on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of possible interpretations i n some s i t u a t i o n . In t h i s formulation, the focus i s on the r e l a t i v e l i k e l i h o o d of certain events with respect to other events. This comes to us from the formulation of information theory and the d e f i n -45 i t i o n i n technical terms.45-- A second method i s to speak of a code as a set of rules. The rules are used to guide us i n the assignment of events of one type to events of another. A good example of t h i s type of code i s the transformational 4 fi grammar developed by Chomsky. Both of these interpretations of a code w i l l be dealt with i n more d e t a i l when we come to discuss the r e l a t i o n s between acts and interpretations. In summary, there are two aspects of our digression which are important to the discussion. F i r s t , i s the r e l a t i o n -ship between the notion of a coding operation and the notion of structure. Second, i s the equivalence for our purposes of the notion of a code, a constraint and a rule or a set of rules. These terms a l l may be used to specify a rel a t i o n s h i p between two or more events. In the language of our basic model, the set of interpretations constitutes the set of code elements which are available to the interactant. From the previous discussion, we can see that the -coding operation li n k s the commun-i c a t i v e act to a pattern of other acts. For example, when we id e n t i f y an event as a "foul b a l l " , we conceptually l i n k i t to a l l the other a c t i v i t i e s , events and persons who are included i n the game of baseball. S i m i l a r l y , when we inte r p r e t a person's actions as those of a "teacher", we imply a wide variety of other related a c t i v i t i e s on the part of other persons, such as "students", "administrators", "parents", etc. Cl e a r l y , the substance of these associations w i l l s h i f t according to time, s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l factors, but the th e o r e t i c a l structure 46 r e m a i n s t h e s a m e . T h e m o s t t y p i c a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f c o d e i t e m s comes f r o m t h e l a n g u a g e t h a t p e r s o n s u s e . A t t h i s p o i n t , i t i s n o t c r u c i a l t o o u r t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l w h e t h e r t h e c o d e i t e m s a r e s t r i c t l y i d e n t i f i e d w i t h p a r t i c u l a r l i n g u i s t i c c a t e g o r i e s u s e d by e i t h e r a c t o r s o r a n a l y s t s . R a t h e r t h a n l i m i t o u r s e l v e s b y i n t r o d u c i n g s u c h s u b s t a n c e i n t o o u r d i s c u s s i o n , we w i l l t o l e r a t e t h e e m p i r i c a l a m b i g u i t y o f t h e c o n c e p t u n t i l we come t o t e s t v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f t h e m o d e l . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e n o t i o n o f a c o d e d o e s p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r r e l a t i n g l a n g u a g e a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n t o o u r m o d e l . The m e c h a n i s m f o r t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e l a t i n g a c o m m u n i c a t i v e a c t t o a c o d e i t e m w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e " c o d i n g p r o c e s s " . T h i s p r o c e s s i s r e p r e s e n t e d by means o f t h e f o l l o w i n g d e f i n i t i o n . R . l . IN i s a q u a t e r n a r y r e l a t i o n , i n p a r t i c u l a r , a s u b s e t o f P x C x P x I s u c h t h a t ( x , a , y , i ) e IN i f f x ^ y ~ p e r s o n y i n t e r p r e t s a c t a b y p e r s o n x a s i . T h e r e l a t i o n IN i s t h e c o d i n g p r o c e s s m a p p i n g c o m m u n i c a t i v e a c t s o f p e r s o n x t o i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s by p e r s o n y . T h i s r e l a t i o n p r o v i d e s a t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f c o n s t r a i n t s o n t h e p o s s i b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w h i c h may be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c t s . T h e c o d i n g p r o c e s s f o r t h e s e a c t s c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d b y means o f a s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f 47 the nature of IN. 4'* Constraints on t h i s coding process become constraints on behavior to the extent that the process l i m i t s the response alternatives available. R.2. OUT i s a quaternary r e l a t i o n , i n p a r t i c u l a r , a subset o f P x I x C x P such that (x,i,a,y) e OUT i f f x ^ y * a i s a communicative act which person y does after x does an act which i s interpreted by y as i . The r e l a t i o n OUT i s the l i n k between interpretations and communicative acts by person y. This r e l a t i o n represents the "decision process" i n our model. I t i s the process which associates i n t e r p r e t -ations with acts for each person i n the in t e r a c t i o n . Both of these r e l a t i o n s r e f e r to the l o g i c a l Structure of our conceptual framework rather than to propositions which constrain the associations possible. Since these associations may be represented i n many d i f f e r e n t ways we w i l l digress at t h i s point to make clear the way i n which we w i l l portray them. Representation of Associations A general representation of the r e l a t i o n s IN and OUT taken independently may be made i n a p i c t o r i a l way by representing associations from some elements to others as l i n e s . In the case of IN the elements would be those of set C and set 48 I; t h a t i s , a c t s a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , F i g u r e 2.1 r e p r e s e n t s o n e p o s s i b l e a r r a n g e m e n t o f s u c h a s s o c i a t i o n s . A s a s e t o f o r d e r e d q u a d r u p l e s t h e same a r r a n g e m e n t may be r e p r e s e n t e d a s : { ( x , C 1 , y , I 1 ) , ( x , C 2 , y , I 2 ) , ( x , C 2 , y , l " 3 ) , ( x , C 3 , y , I 3 ) , ( x , C 3 , y , I 4 ) , ( x , C 4 , y , I 3 ) } T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l f e a t u r e s o f t h i s p a r t i c u l a r r e l a t i o n w h i c h a r e n o t e w o r t h y . One a c t may be a s s o c i a t e d t o more t h a n two d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , ( e . g . , C 2 i s a s s o c i a t e d t o I 2 a n d I 3 ; C 3 i s a s s o c i a t e d t o I 3 a n d 1^) . S i m i l a r l y , more t h a n one a c t may be a s s o c i a t e d t o o n e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . ( e . g . , C 2 , C 3 a n d a r e a l l a s s o c i a t e d t o I 3 ) . The r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f a v e r b a l s t a t e m e n t i n t h i s way r e q u i r e s a g r e a t e r d e g r e e o f p r e c i s i o n t h a n a l i n g u i s t i c f o r m . A s a r e s u l t , i t b e c o m e s a r e l a t i v e l y e a s y m a t t e r t o move t o m a t h e m a t i c a l a n d f o r m a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s o f an i n t e r a c t i o n p r o c e s s . A l t h o u g h t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f a s s o c i a t i o n s up t o t h i s p o i n t h a s b e e n made i n a d e t e r m i n i s t i c f a s h i o n , i t w o u l d be p o s s i b l e t o a s s i g n w e i g h t s t o t h e a s s o c i a t i o n s a t a l a t e r d a t e . S u c h w e i g h t i n g p r o c e d u r e s c o u l d be u s e d t o r e p r e s e n t t h e l i k e l i h o o d f o r t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f c e r t a i n a s s o c -i a t i o n s . I n t h e i n t e r e s t s o f p a r s i m o n y , we h a v e d e c i d e d t o b e g i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f o u r m o d e l w i t h o u t s u c h a f e a t u r e , how-e v e r . I t i s w o r t h n o t i n g t h a t a f u t u r e s t r u c t u r a l e l a b o r a t i o n F i g u r e 2.1  G r a p h i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f a s s o c i a t i o n s P e r s o n x P e r s o n 50 m i g h t u t i l i z e t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y . T h i s p a r t i c u l a r c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and a c t s h a s , a s w e l l , t h e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e o r e t i c a l l y l i n k i n g c o g n i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s e s . On t h e one h a n d , we h a v e a s s u m e d t h a t l e a r n i n g • i n v o l v e d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t and a l t e r a t i o n o f a s s o c i a t i o n s 4 8 b e t w e e n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a n d a c t s . A t t h e same t i m e we h a v e c o n s i d e r e d t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s may be r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e l a n g u a g e s y m b o l s o r s i g n s w h i c h a r e u s e d a s a b a s i s f o r t h e o r i e s _ 49 o f c o g n i t i v e s t r u c t u r e s . T h e r e l a t i o n s (IN a n d OUT) t h e n , r e p r e s e n t c e r t a i n a s p e c t s o f t h e s t r u c t u r e o f a s s o c i a t i o n s a s s u m e d b y t h e s e t h e o r i e s . We do n o t want t o e l a b o r a t e i n d e t a i l t h e s e a s p e c t s o f o u r m o d e l . T h e y a r e r a i s e d a t t h i s p o i n t f o r two r e a s o n s . F i r s t , i t i s a s u g g e s t i o n o f t h e way i n w h i c h t h e o r e t i c a l l i n k s m i g h t be d e v e l o p e d w i t h t h e s e o t h e r a r e a s o f t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t . S e c o n d , i t w i l l p r o v i d e a c o n t e x t f o r o u r d e c i s i o n t o t r e a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a s p a r t o f an e s t a b l i s h e d s y s t e m o f a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t h e c o n c e p t u a l a n d e m p i r i c a l d e v e l o p -ment t o f o l l o w . I n o t h e r w o r d s , we w i l l a s s u m e t h a t t h e i n t e r -a c t a n t s a r e " e d u c a t e d " t o some e x t e n t , t h a t i s , t h e y h a v e h a d a s u f f i c i e n t h i s t o r y o f i n t e r a c t i o n t o d e v e l o p a s e t o f a s s o c i a t i o n s b e t w e e n a c t s and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . 51 CHAPTER 3 - THE PROCESS OF CHANGE IN A S S O C I A T I O N Now t h a t we h a v e p r o v i d e d a g e n e r a l a c c o u n t o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s y s t e m , we a r e i n a p o s i t i o n t o e l a b o r a t e v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f t h e p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d when a s s o c i a t i o n s b e t w e e n a c t s and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , a n d b e t w e e n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a n d a c t s c h a n g e . The r e a s o n f o r f o c u s s i n g o n t h i s a s p e c t o f t h e g e n e r a l s y s t e m i s b e c a u s e o f o u r c o n c e r n f o r t h e way i n w h i c h a s e q u e n c e o f i n t e r a c t i o n may c h a n g e o v e r t i m e . I n o r d e r t o make p r o p o s i t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e d i r e c t i o n o f a n i n t e r -a c t i o n s e q u e n c e we m u s t be a b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e way i n w h i c h o n e p e r s o n ' s a c t i o n a f f e c t s t h e o t h e r . S i n c e o u r c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k j u s t p r e s e n t e d l o c a t e s c h a n g e s i n a c t s i n t h e r e l a t i o n s IN and O U T , i t i s h e r e t h a t we m u s t b e g i n t o e l a b o r a t e o u r c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n . S i n c e we h a v e l i m i t e d o u r d i s c u s s i o n t o t h o s e s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e p e r s o n s a r e a t t e m p t i n g t o c o o r d i n a t e t h e i r b e h a v i o r we c a n v i e w t h i s c h a n g e a s a t y p e o f l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s . A t e a c h p o i n t i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n t h e p e r s o n s i n v o l v e d a r e t r y i n g t o l e a r n w h a t a r e t h e " a p p r o p r i a t e " a c t i o n s f o r t h a t s i t u a t i o n . T h a t i s , e a c h p e r s o n i s a t t e m p t i n g t o i d e n t i f y w h i c h a c t i o n s w i l l r e s u l t i n c o o r d i n a t i o n . We may v i e w h i m a s a p e r s o n i n v o l v e d i n t h e s o l u t i o n o f a p u z z l e w h i c h may k e e p s h i f t i n g . A t e a c h p o i n t i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n he m u s t make a j u d g e m e n t r e g a r d i n g t h e t y p e o f a c t i o n w h i c h w i l l p r o d u c e a b e n e f i c i a l j o i n t o u t c o m e . I n o r d e r t o do s o , he m u s t make some a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e p a t t e r n o f a c t i o n w h i c h t h e o t h e r 52 p e r s o n i s l i k e l y t o m a k e , and t h e n a d j u s t h i s own a c t i o n t o t h a t p a t t e r n . F o r s e v e r e l y c o n s t r a i n e d s i t u a t i o n s , t h i s i s u s u a l l y n o t t o o d i f f i c u l t a t a s k . H o w e v e r , m o s t i n t e r a c t i o n s i t u a t i o n s a r e n o t l i m i t e d t o s u c h a l a r g e e x t e n t . E a c h a c t i o n t h a t a p e r s o n makes r a i s e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f s h i f t i n g t h e p a t t e r n o f a c t i o n he m i g h t e x p e c t f r o m t h e o t h e r . I n a d d i t i o n , p a t t e r n s o f a c t i o n may be i d e n t i f i e d a t many d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s a t o n c e . T h u s t h e m o n i t o r i n g o f f e e d b a c k f r o m t h e o t h e r p e r s o n b e c o m e s a c r u c i a l p r o c e s s . I t i s t o t h e e f f e c t o f f e e d b a c k t h a t we w i l l now t u r n . T h e m a n n e r i n w h i c h t h i s f e e d b a c k i s h a n d l e d w i l l b e a m a j o r i n f l u e n c e o n t h e way i n w h i c h a n i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n p e r s o n s may p r o c e e d . I f , f o r e x a m p l e , j u d g e m e n t s r e g a r d i n g t h e o t h e r p e r s o n a r e made q u i c k l y and a l t e r e d w i t h l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t a c h a n g e , we m i g h t e x p e c t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p t o be m o r e d i f f i c u l t t o c o o r d i n a t e t h a n one i n w h i c h j u d g e m e n t s a r e f o r m e d and a l t e r e d s l o w l y . In a d d i t i o n , i f t h e j u d g e m e n t s b a s e d o n i n f o r m a t i o n a t a c o n c r e t e l e v e l o f s p e c i f i c i t y c o n t r a -d i c t w i t h t h o s e b a s e d o n i n f o r m a t i o n a t a m o r e a b s t r a c t l e v e l , we m i g h t f i n d t y p i c a l p r o c e s s e s o r s t r a t e g i e s e m e r g i n g w h i c h • t h e i n t e r a c t a n t s u s e t o r e s o l v e t h e i s s u e . By f o c u s s i n g o n t h e way i n w h i c h s u c h f e e d b a c k i s h a n d l e d i n a s e q u e n t i a l s i t u a t i o n , we h o p e t o be a b l e t o f o r m u l a t e p r o p o s i t i o n s r e g a r d -i n g t h e l i k e l y manner i n w h i c h an i n t e r a c t i o n s e q u e n c e w i l l p r o c e e d . I n t e r m s o f o u r b a s i c m o d e l , t h e s t r u c t u r e o f 53 a s s o c i a t i o n s w h i c h w i l l be a l t e r e d b y f e e d b a c k c a n be r e p r e s -e n t e d b y c h a n g e s i n t h e r e l a t i o n s IN a n d OUT. O u r f i r s t r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n t h e n i s : In w h a t ways m i g h t t h e r e l a t i o n s IN a n d OUT be a l t e r e d by f e e d b a c k ? I t w i l l be a p p a r e n t f r o m o u r d i s c u s s i o n t h a t we a r e n o t c o n c e r n e d a t t h i s p o i n t w i t h c h a n g e s i n a s s o c i a t i o n s w h i c h o c c u r when t h e r e a r e m o r e t h a n two p e r s o n s i n v o l v e d i n t h e e x c h a n g e . We a r e c o n c e r n e d r a t h e r , w i t h t h e c h a n g e s i n t h e a s s o c i a t i o n s b e t w e e n a c t s a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s ( i n t h e r e l a t i o n IN) a n d b e t w e e n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a n d a c t s ( i n t h e r e l a t i o n O U T ) . M o r e s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h i s means t h a t t h e r e a r e o n l y two p e r s o n s i n t h e s e t P . T h i s c o n d i t i o n w i l l a p p l y f o r t h e r e m a i n d e r o f o u r d i s c u s s i o n . T h e o r e t i c a l B a c k g r o u n d A t t h i s p o i n t we w i l l p r o v i d e a r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e a c c o u n t o f t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e b e t w e e n IN and OUT a s a f i r s t s t e p i n t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f i n t e r a c t i o n . T h e d i r e c t i o n f o r s u c h an a c c o u n t was s u g g e s t e d b y b o t h an e x p e r i m e n t a l a n d a t h e o r e t i c a l p i e c e o f w o r k . P e t e r s o n a n d DuCharme w e r e i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h p e r s o n s u s e d i n f o r m a t i o n e f f i c i e n t l y when c h a n g i n g t h e i r i n f e r e n c e s r e g a r d i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f v a r i o u s h y p o t h e s e s . 5 0 * T h e y c o n d u c t e d a s e r i e s o f e x p e r i m e n t s i n w h i c h s u b j e c t s w e r e a s k e d t o e s t i m a t e f r o m w h i c h u r n a s e r i e s o f b a l l s w e r e s e l e c t e d . T h e y w e r e g i v e n i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e t o t a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o l o u r e d b a l l s i n e a c h u r n , a n d a s t h e b a l l s 54 w e r e p i c k e d o u t t h e y w e r e t o g i v e t h e i r p r e d i c t i o n o f t h e u r n f r o m w h i c h t h e b a l l s w e r e d r a w n , a l o n g w i t h t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f t h e e s t i m a t e b e i n g c o r r e c t . A c o m p a r i s o n was made b e t w e e n c h a n g e s i n l i k e l i h o o d u s i n g B a y e s ' t h e o r e m a n d t h e d a t a f r o m t h e s u b j e c t s . S u b j e c t s showed a " p r i m a r y e f f e c t " i n t h e i r s e l e c t i o n o f u r n s ; o n c e t h e y h a d c h o s e n a n u r n , t h e y w e r e more r e s i s t e n t t o c h a n g e t h a t c h o i c e t h a n t h e p r e d i c t i o n s - b a s e d o n B a y e s ' t h e o r e m . A l t h o u g h o u r m o d e l makes no p r e d i c t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e l i k e l i h o o d f u n c t i o n s , t h e P e t e r s o n a n d DuCharme f i n d i n g s show one e f f e c t w h i c h i s r e l e v a n t f o r o u r d i s c u s s i o n . I t i s t h e c o n s e r v a t i v e n a t u r e o f e s t i m a t e s i n t h e f a c e o f c o n t r a d i c t o r y e v i d e n c e . 5 1 - I f we s e e an a n a l o g y b e t w e e n p e r s o n s a n d t h e i r a c t s i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n m o d e l , a n d u r n s a n d b a l l s i n t h e P e t e r s o n a n d DuCharme e x p e r i m e n t s , t h e two c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s become r e l a t e d . J u s t a s t h e s e q u e n c e o f b a l l s p r o v i d e some i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e u r n , s o d o a p e r s o n ' s a c t s c o n v e y i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g a s p e c t s o f h i s " n a t u r e " . G i v e n t h i s a n a l o g y , t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s u l t s s u p p o r t a v i e w t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s a r e r e l u c t a n t t o c h a n g e e s t a b l i s h e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e s o u r c e o f a c t s , a t l e a s t w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s t a n d a r d o f c h a n g e s u g g e s t e d b y B a y e s ' t h e o r e m . T h e N a t u r e o f t h e C h a n g e On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s e x p e r i m e n t , we l o o k e d f o r a way i n w h i c h t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e t y p e f o u n d c o u l d be i n t r o d u c e d i n t o o u r m o d e l . T h e s i m p l e s t way was t o p r o p o s e t h a t s h i f t s i n 55 IN r e l a t i o n s w e r e l e s s l i k e l y t o o c c u r a f t e r a n e r r o r i n c o o r d i n a t i o n , t h a n w e r e s h i f t s i n OUT r e l a t i o n s . T h e r e a r e two b a s e s f o r s u g g e s t i n g t h i s p a r t i c u l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n IN a n d OUT r e l a t i o n s . T h e f i r s t i s an a r g u m e n t f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g e f f i c i e n c y , a n d t h e s e c o n d i s a n a r g u m e n t r a i s e d b y L a w r e n c e i n h i s d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e c o d i n g r e s p o n s e . 5 2 . I f we c o n s i d e r t h e i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g a s p e c t s o f i n d i v i d u a l a c t i o n , we f i n d t h a t some f o r m s o f c h a n g e o n t h e b a s i s o f f e e d b a c k a r e l e s s c o s t l y t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l t h a n o t h e r s . Upon t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f an e r r o r i n c o o r d i n a t i o n , t h e i n d i v i d u a l h a s t h e o p t i o n o f c h a n g i n g h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e p a s t e v e n t , c h a n g i n g h i s c h o i c e o f a c t i o n b a s e d o n t h a t i n t e r p r e t -a t i o n , o r c h a n g i n g b o t h . A p e r s o n , f o r e x a m p l e , who s u d d e n l y f i n d s h i s f r i e n d s h o w i n g a g r e a t d e a l o f h o s t i l i t y t o w a r d h i m h a s t h e o p t i o n o f a l t e r i n g h i s d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e o t h e r f r o m " f r i e n d " , t o p e r h a p s " e n e m y " , m a i n t a i n i n g t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f " f r i e n d " b u t a l t e r i n g t h e t y p e o f a c t i o n he w i l l make t o w a r d h i m ( b e i n g a l i t t l e m o r e d e f e n s i v e , p e r h a p s ) , o r a l t e r i n g b o t h h i s d e f i n i t i o n a n d h i s a c t i o n . I f he c h a n g e s h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , he m o s t l i k e l y w i l l h a v e t o r e a s s i g n m e a n i n g t o e v e n t s w h i c h h a v e a l r e a d y o c c u r r e d i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o r i n s i m i l a r i n t e r a c t i o n s . A s s u m i n g t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p h a s d e v e l o p e d o v e r some t i m e , o r t h a t s i m i l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s h a v e b e e n e x p e r i e n c e d , we w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t many o t h e r e v e n t s b e s i d e t h e s p e c i f i c h o s t i l i t y a r e a s s o c i a t e d t o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n " f r i e n d " . 56 I f one w e r e t o r e d e f i n e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p f r o m o n e o f " f r i e n d -s h i p " , t h e r e f o r e , one w o u l d a l s o h a v e t o r e i n t e r p r e t many o t h e r a c t i o n s w h i c h h a v e o c c u r r e d up t o t h a t t i m e . " G i f t s " w h i c h h a d b e e n e x c h a n g e d , f o r e x a m p l e , w o u l d h a v e t o be r e i n t e r p r e t e d i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e new e v e n t s t o p e r h a p s " b r i b e s " . P a s t e x p r e s s i o n s o f a f f e c t i o n , i n a d d i t i o n , w o u l d h a v e t o be r e e v a l u a t e d a s f a l s e . We make t h i s s t a t e m e n t o n t h e p r e s u m p t i o n t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s a t t e m p t t o m a i n t a i n a t l e a s t some c o n s i s t e n c y i n t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f e v e n t s . E v e n i f we r e i n t e r p r e t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p a s o n e w h i c h was f r i e n d s h i p , we e s c a p e t h e p r o b l e m o f r e d e f i n i n g p a s t e v e n t s , b u t we i n t r o d u c e a g r e a t d e a l m o r e u n c e r t a i n t y i n t o t h e f u t u r e o c c u r r e n c e s o f e v e n t s w h i c h we w o u l d h a v e up u n t i l t h a t t i m e i n t e r p r e t e d a s s i g n s o f f r i e n d s h i p . I n a d d i t i o n , we may be f o r c e d t o r e i n t e r p r e t o u r r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h o t h e r " f r i e n d s " a s m o r e u n c e r t a i n . T o c h a n g e t h e c h o i c e o f a c t i o n s b a s e d o n r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s i n v o l v e s t h e a d j u s t m e n t o f f e w e r f a c t o r s , h o w e v e r . W i t h i n t h e f r a m e w o r k o f a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t h e r e may be many d i f f e r e n t a c t i o n s w h i c h a r e c o n s o n a n t w i t h t h a t f r a m e -w o r k . To move f r o m one t o t h e o t h e r may mean a s h i f t i n u t i l i t i e s o r a n a d j u s t m e n t o f t h e o u t c o m e l i k e l i h o o d f o r a p a r t i c u l a r e v e n t , b u t i t d o e s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y mean t h e a d j u s t -ment o f w h o l e c l a s s e s o f e v e n t s . T h e a l t e r a t i o n o f t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f w h o l e c l a s s e s o f a c t s may be a r a t h e r c o s t l y t a s k , b o t h i n t e r m s o f t h e t i m e a n d t h e p r o b l e m s i t c r e a t e s f o r s t a b i l i z i n g e x p e c t a t i o n s . 57 On t h i s b a s i s , t h e n , we a r e p r o p o s i n g t h a t t h e m o s t e f f i c i e n t s t r a t e g y f o r t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s o r i s t o t r y a new a c t i o n b e f o r e c h a n g i n g t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e o t h e r ' s p a s t a c t s . T h e o p t i o n o f c h a n g i n g b o t h a c t s a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s f a l l s i n t o t h i r d p l a c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o e f f i c i e n c y s i n c e i t i n v o l v e s an a d d i t i o n o f t h e c o s t s o f b o t h t y p e s o f c h a n g e s . • T h i s p r o p o s t i o n i s s i m i l a r t o D . H . L a w r e n c e ' s v i e w when we r e c a l l t h e t h e o r e t i c a l s i m i l a r i t y b e t w e e n h i s n o t i o n o f t h e " s t i m u l u s - a s - c o d e d " and o u r n o t i o n o f i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n s . ^ 4 ' ' I n h i s d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e c o d i n g r e s p o n s e ( t h e IN r e l a t i o n i n ^ o u r m o d e l ) he a s s u m e s t h a t t h e r e s p o n s e i s a r e a c t i o n , c o n t r o l l e d by f a c t o r s o t h e r t h a n t h e p r o x i m a l s t i m u l i i n a p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n . I n t h i s w a y , he t i e s t h e c o d i n g r u l e s t o t h e m o r e s t a b l e a n d u n c h a n g i n g a s p e c t s o f t h e s i t u a t i o n a n d t h e a c t i o n b a s e d o n t h e s t i m u l u s - a s - c o d e d t o t h e c r i t i c a l o r c h a n g i n g a s p e c t s o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . By d o i n g s o , he p r o v i d e s a r e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f many p r o b l e m s i n p e r c e p t i o n and l e a r n i n g s u c h a s t h e c o n t i n u i t y -n o n c o n t i n u i t y c o n t r o v e r s y i n l e a r n i n g t h e o r y , t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f r e d u n d a n c y a t t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l l e v e l , s h i f t s i n s t i m u l u s -r e s p o n s e r e l a t i o n s a s a f u n c t i o n o f c o n t e x t u a l c h a n g e s , s t i m u l u s s i m i l a r i t y a n d t r a n s f e r o f l e a r n i n g i s s u e s . ^ 5 -A s i m i l a r d i s t i n c t i o n e x i s t s i n t h e t h e o r y o f t h e 5 6 . a t t r i b u t i o n p r o c e s s a s s p e c i f i e d b y H . K e l l e y . * F o l l o w i n g 5 7 . n . 5 8 . Bern a n d t o some e x t e n t , S k i n n e r , K e l l e y s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e b e h a v i o r , o f p e r s o n s m i g h t be s e p a r a t e d i n t o two c l a s s e s . 5 8 T h e f i r s t i s t h a t c l a s s o f b e h a v i o r s w h i c h a r e a s s o c i a t e d t o r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e e n t i t i e s i n o n e ' s e n v i r o n m e n t . I t i s p r o p o s e d t h a t t h i s f i r s t c l a s s o f b e h a v i o r s i s l a r g e l y s h a p e d b y s o c i a l t r a i n i n g and i s e p i t o m i z e d b y n a m i n g r e s p o n s e s a n d d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t e m e n t s . T h e s e c o n d c l a s s o f b e h a v i o r s i n c l u d e s t h o s e w h i c h a r e a s s o c i a t e d t o s p e c i f i c p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e s i t u -a t i o n o f a c t i o n i n w h i c h one i s l o c a t e d . T h e s e a r e p r e s u m e d t o be r e s p o n s e s u n d e r t h e c o n t r o l o f s p e c i f i c r e w a r d / p u n i s h m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s i t u a t i o n i n s o f a r a s t h e a c t o r i s c o n c e r n e d . T h e y p r o p o s e t h a t t h e f i r s t c l a s s o f b e h a v i o r s c a n be r e c o g n i z e d a s s u c h b y t h e i r c o n s i s t e n c y o v e r t i m e . A t y p e o f b e h a v i o r w h i c h i s g u i d e d b y p r e v i o u s l y l e a r n e d c o n c e p t u a l c a t e g o r i e s ( e . g . , t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n h i g h and l o w s t a t u s ) c a n be r e c o g n i z e d b y i t s c o n s i s t e n t o c c u r r e n c e a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s and p l a c e s . F o r e x a m p l e , i f I am o b s e r v e d t o show d e f e r e n c e t o u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h e r s i n a w i d e v a r i e t y o f s i t u a t i o n s and o v e r a l o n g p e r i o d o f t i m e , one w o u l d be l e d t o c o n c l u d e t h a t my b e h a v i o r i n t h a t r e g a r d was g u i d e d b y t h e s o c i a l c a t e g o r y o f t h e t e a c h e r r a t h e r t h a n b y t h e s p e c i f i c r e i n f o r c e m e n t c o n t i n g e n c i e s i n e a c h s i t u a t i o n . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , b e h a v i o r s o f t h e s e c o n d c l a s s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c o n s i s t e n t o v e r t i m e o r s i t u a t i o n , b u t t h e y s h i f t d e p e n d i n g o n t h e s p e c i f i c a r r a y o f r e i n f o r c e m e n t s i n e a c h s i t u a t i o n . I f I d i d n o t a l w a y s show d e f e r e n c e t o u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h e r s , f o r e x a m p l e , b u t o n l y when a s t r o n g r e w a r d o r t h r e a t was a p p a r e n t i n t h e s i t u a t i o n , one c o u l d c o n c l u d e t h a t s u c h 59 d e f e r e n c e was w i t h i n t h e t y p e o f b e h a v i o r b e l o n g i n g t o t h e s e c o n d c l a s s . I f we were t o s i m p l y i d e n t i f y o u r n o t i o n s o f t h e " i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s " a n d t h e " d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s " w i t h t h a t o f t h e a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r i s t s ' c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f s t a b l e and p r o x i m a l f e a t u r e s o f a s i t u a t i o n , we w o u l d h a v e a b a s i s f o r p r o p o s i n g t h a t t h e c h a n g e s i n t h e " i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s " a r e l e s s l i k e l y t o o c c u r t h a n c h a n g e s i n t h e " d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s " . ^ H o w e v e r , o u r c o n c e r n w i t h i n t e r a c t i o n c r e a t e s s p e c i a l p r o b l e m s f o r s u c h an i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . S i n c e we h a v e l i n k e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s t o p a t t e r n s o f a c t i o n w h i c h may o c c u r w i t h i n an i n t e r a c t i o n , i t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o c l e a r l y e s t a b l i s h t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n s t i m u l i w h i c h a r e l i n k e d t o a s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n and t h o s e s t i m u l i w h i c h a r e l i n k e d t o n o n - p r o x i m a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . T a k e , f o r e x a m p l e , a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h two s t r a n g e r s a r e i n t e r a c t i n g . P r e s u m e a s w e l l t h a t o n t h e b a s i s o f t h a t i n t e r a c t i o n , a t l e a s t one o f t h e . . p e r s o n s comes t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e o t h e r p e r s o n i s h i s f r i e n d . ( i . e . , he makes an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n a t t i m e t ) . I f we w e r e t o a c c e p t L a w r e n c e ' s o r K e l l e y ' s c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n a n d i d e n t i f y n o n - p r o x i m a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e s i t u a t i o n w i t h i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , we w o u l d h a v e t o i d e n t i f y t h e b e h a v i o r o c c u r r i n g b e f o r e t i m e t a s b e h a v i o r w h i c h i s n o t p r o x i m a l t o t h e s i t u a t i o n , s i n c e i t was o n t h e b a s i s o f t h i s b e h a v i o r t h a t t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n was m a d e . T h i s w o u l d make t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n p r o x i m a l a n d n o n - p r o x i m a l s t i m u l i u s e l e s s s i n c e a t a n y i n s t a n t i n t i m e , a l l p r e v i o u s a c t i o n may be c o n -s i d e r e d n o n - p r o x i m a l i f a n ; i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s m a d e . T h u s t h e 60 i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i t s e l f d e f i n e s w h a t i s n o n - p r o x i m a l (and p r o x i m a l ) a n d n o t h i n g i s a d d e d b y t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e s e t e r m s . I t a l s o makes t h e p r o p o s i t i o n s o f a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y i n a p p r o p r i a t e , s i n c e t h e y f o c u s o n t h e n o t i o n o f c o n s i s t e n c y o v e r t i m e . I f p r o x i m a l s t i m u l i a r e o n l y t h o s e r e l a t i n g t o t h e i n s t a n t o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n f o r m a t i o n , one c a n n o t e s t a b l i s h w h e t h e r t h e r e h a s b e e n c o n s i s t e n c y i n r e s p o n s e o v e r t i m e . I n o r d e r t o a v o i d t h i s p r o b l e m , we m u s t p r o p o s e a m o d e l f o r t h e f o r m a t i o n a n d c h a n g e o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s ( t h e IN r e l a t i o n ) w h i c h p e r m i t s t h i s c h a n g e t o b e d e p e n d e n t on t h e a c t i o n ( o r s t i m u l i ) w i t h i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n i t s e l f . S i n c e t h e same a c t i o n may a l s o be t h e b a s i s f o r c h a n g i n g t h e OUT r e l a t i o n , t h e r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e IN r e l a t i o n m u s t be a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e s t r u c t u r a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e IN a n d OUT r e l a t i o n s t h e m s e l v e s . Somehow we m u s t d e v i s e a m o d e l i n w h i c h t h e IN r e l a t i o n i s r e l a t i v e l y s e n s i t i v e t o p a t t e r n s o f a c t i o n b u t n o t s p e c i f i c a c t s , w h i l e t h e OUT r e l a t i o n i s s e n s i t i v e t o t h e s p e c i f i c a c t s i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n . We m i g h t n o t e a t t h i s p o i n t t h a t t h e a b o v e a r g u m e n t d o e s n o t mean t h a t we m u s t e x c l u d e f r o m e i t h e r t h e IN o r t h e OUT r e l a t i o n s , t h e e f f e c t s o f s t i m u l i o u t s i d e o f t h e a c t s t h e m s e l v e s . R a t h e r , we h a v e s i m p l y f o c u s s e d - - o n t h e w e a k n e s s o f t h e L a w r e n c e a n d K e l l e y c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s when i t comes t o d e a l i n g w i t h t h e a c t s i n a n i n t e r a c t i o n s e q u e n c e . S i n c e t h i s t y p e o f s e q u e n c e i s o u r p r i m a r y c o n c e r n a t t h i s p o i n t , we h a v e f e l t t h a t a m o d e l f o r c h a n g e s i n t h e IN a n d OUT r e l a t i o n s w h i c h 61 d o e s n o t d e a l w i t h b e h a v i o r i n a s e q u e n c e m u s t be r e j e c t e d i n f a v o u r o f o n e w h i c h d o e s . T h e P r o c e s s o f C h a n g e One way i n w h i c h we m i g h t b u i l d i n t o o u r m o d e l a g r e a t e r d e g r e e o f s t a b i l i t y f o r t h e IN r e l a t i o n o v e r t h e OUT r e l a t i o n i s b y means o f a t h r e s h o l d m o d e l f o r c h a n g e s i n t h e IN r e l a t i o n . T h e t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f s u c h a m o d e l h a s b e e n d o n e t o a l a r g e e x t e n t i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e o n s e q u e n t i a l a n a l y s i s . ' T h i s may mean t h a t i t w i l l be m o s t a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h e t y p e o f s i t u a t i o n t h a t we a r e l i k e l y t o f i n d i n i n t e r a c t i o n . I f we a l l o w i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s t o s h i f t o n l y a f t e r a p a r t i c u l a r t h r e s h o l d o f r e s p o n s e s i s r e a c h e d , we p r o v i d e f o r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c o n s e r v a t i v e e f f e c t i n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . T h i s e f f e c t s t e m s f r o m two s o u r c e s . F i r s t , i t i s a r e s u l t o f t h e l a g b e t w e e n t h e f e e d b a c k and t h e e f f e c t o f f e e d b a c k . S m a l l c h a n g e s i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t show no e f f e c t u n d e r a t h r e s h o l d m o d e l u n t i l t h e y p a s s t h e p o i n t o f a c t i v a t i o n . B e t w e e n f r i e n d s , f o r e x a m p l e , we w i l l o f t e n f i n d a g r e a t d e a l o f t o l e r a n c e f o r a c t s w h i c h i n o t h e r c i r c u m s t a n c e s may be d e f i n e d a s h o s t i l i t y and b e t r a y a l b e f o r e t h e f r i e n d s h i p m i g h t be r e d e f i n e d by t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s . U s i n g t h e n o t i o n o f a t h r e s h o l d , we c a n s e e t h o s e a c t s o f h o s t i l i t y w h i c h p r e c e d e t h e r e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p , a s a c t s w h i c h w e r e n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y n u m e r o u s o r s e v e r e e n o u g h t o p a s s t h e t h r e s h o l d a t w h i c h r e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w i l l o c c u r . T h e s e c o n d f a c t o r w h i c h makes t h e t h r e s h o l d m o d e l 62 r e s i s t e n t t o c h a n g e i s a r e s u l t o f t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e b a s i c a c t i o n m o d e l . A p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n a t t i m e 1 w i l l a f f e c t t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r r e s p o n s e a t t h a t t i m e . I n a d d i t i o n , i t w i l l a f f e c t t h e i m p a c t o f t h e o t h e r p e r s o n ' s r e s p o n s e , s i n c e an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e o t h e r ' s r e s p o n s e d e t e r m i n e s t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h a t r e s p o n s e . F o r e x a m p l e , i f we i d e n t i f y a n o t h e r a s a f r i e n d , h i s b e h a v i o r may h a v e a v e r y d i f f e r e n t m e a n i n g i n t e r m s o f o u r r e s p o n s e s f r o m w h a t we w o u l d g i v e i f we i d e n t i f y h i m a s a f o e ; e v e n i f h i s b e h a v i o r i s t h e same i n b o t h c a s e s . A n e x t r e m e f o r m o f t h i s c o n s e r v a t i v e e f f e c t i s f o u n d i n t h e c a s e o f p a r a n o i a , w h e r e t h e i n t e r p r e t -a t i o n o f o t h e r s ' a c t i o n s p r o v i d e s e v i d e n c e f o r t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . We t h u s f i n d i t e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o a l t e r t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s m a d e . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e d e c i s i o n s made o n t h e b a s i s o f a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n ( s p e c i f i e d i n o u r m o d e l b y t h e OUT r e l a t i o n ) m i g h t be e x p e c t e d t o f o l l o w some o f t h e p a t t e r n s o f a m o r e s i m p l e c h o i c e m o d e l . U n d e r s u c h a m o d e l , e r r o r i n j u d g e m e n t m i g h t be f o l l o w e d i m m e d i a t e l y b y a n a l t e r a t i o n o f t h e a c t i o n m a d e , w i t h o u t t h e d e l a y w h i c h a t h r e s h o l d m o d e l m i g h t i m p l y . I t i s a r e l a t i v e l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d m a t t e r t o e x t e n d a s i m p l e c h o i c e m o d e l t o s e q u e n t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n b y u s i n g some o f t h e m o d e l s a v a i l a b l e f o r s i m p l e l e a r n i n g b e h a v i o r . 6 ^ ' T h i s p a r t i c u l a r f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e d e t a i l s o f t h e IN a n d OUT p r o c e s s e s i s a l s o r e a s o n a b l e i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e a c t i o n i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e e x p e c t e d b e t w e e n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a n d d e c i s i o n s . T h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s i s a r e c u r s i v e p r o c e s s 63 o v e r t i m e i n t h a t i t s a l t e r a t i o n i n v o l v e s i t s own p r e v i o u s s t a t e . F e e d b a c k w h i c h may r e f l e c t o n t h e u t i l i t y o f a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s i t s e l f s u b j e c t t o a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . I f we s e e t h e o t h e r a s a f r i e n d , f o r e x a m p l e , we a r e more l i k e l y t o i n t e r p r e t h i s a c t s ( t h e f e e d b a c k ) a s f r i e n d l y , t h a n i f we s e e h i m a s an e n e m y . E v e n t s w h i c h h a v e t h e p o t e n t i a l t o r e i n f o r c e o r a l t e r a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n a r e t h e m s e l v e s d e p e n d e n t o n t h e same i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s o f t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e and d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s we e x p e c t t o f i n d t h a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l p r o c e s s e s o f t h e two d i f f e r e n t p e r s o n s i n an i n t e r -a c t i o n a r e n o t i n d e p e n d e n t . A p a t t e r n o f a c t i o n b y o n e m i g h t be c h a n g e d a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e o t h e r ' s b e h a v i o r , b u t i t i s c l e a r f r o m o u r m o d e l t h a t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f c h a n g e i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w h i c h t h e f i r s t p e r s o n h a s made o f t h e o t h e r ' s b e h a v i o r . S i m i l a r l y , t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n b y t h e f i r s t i s a f u n c t i o n o f h i s own p a s t a c t s , b u t t h e y a r e a l s o a f u n c t i o n o f t h e o t h e r ' s a c t i o n . I t i s t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e s e two c h a n g e p r o c e s s e s t h a t we f i n d m o s t i n t r i g u i n g . T h e e f f e c t o f s u c h an i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e o v e r t i m e m i g h t be t o move i n t e r a c t i o n s e q u e n c e s i n d i r e c t i o n s w h i c h a r e n o t o b v i o u s f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f t h e p r o c e s s i n v o l v e d o r f r o m t h e i n i t i a l s t a t e s o f t h e p e r s o n s i n v o l v e d . I t may be t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n a n d l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e and t h a t t h e c o m p l e x -i t y o f i n t e r a c t i o n i s i n t r o d u c e d by t h e c o n c a t e n a t i o n o f t h e s e 6 4 p r o c e s s e s a n d t h e r e p e t i t i o n o f them o v e r t i m e . I n summary t h e n , we h a v e c h o s e n two g e n e r a l t y p e s o f p r o c e s s e s t o r e p r e s e n t t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e a n d d e c i s i o n a s p e c t s o f i n d i v i d u a l b e h a v i o r . We a r e p r o p o s i n g t h a t t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s i s a t h r e s h o l d t y p e o f m e c h a n i s m i n w h i c h c h a n g e s a r e made o n l y a f t e r a t h r e s h o l d o f some l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n i s r e a c h e d . T h i s p r o p o s i t i o n i s made i n o r d e r t o i n t r o d u c e some s t a b i l i t y i n t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s . T h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s on, t h e o t h e r h a n d , i s a s s u m e d t o o p e r a t e i n t h e manner o f a s i m p l e l e a r n i n g m e c h a n i s m s u c h a s t h e s t i m u l u s s a m p l i n g m o d e l s i n p s y c h o l o g y . T h i s w i l l a l l o w u s t o r e p r e s e n t t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l b e h a v i o r t o s h i f t s i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a s e v i d e n t i n s e a r c h i n g a n d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g b e h a v i o r . 65 SECTION 2 CHAPTER 4 - OPERATIONALIZ ING THE THRESHOLD MODEL I n t h i s s e c t i o n , we w i l l b e g i n t h e p r o c e s s o f o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f t h e g e n e r a l f r a m e w o r k d e v e l o p e d i n S e c t i o n 1. S i n c e t h e g e n e r a l f r a m e w o r k c a n be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d i n s o many w a y s , t h e r e i s r e a l l y no way t h a t i t c a n b e t e s t e d i n t o t a l . A s a n a l t e r n a t i v e , we h a v e c h o s e n t o f o c u s o n one s m a l l a s p e c t o f t h e g e n e r a l f r a m e w o r k a n d s u b j e c t i t t o e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n . A s a r e s u l t o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n , we h o p e t o b e a b l e t o make m o r e a s p e c t s o f t h e g e n e r a l f r a m e w o r k a p p l i c a b l e t o r e s e a r c h a n d i n t h i s way b o t h t e s t a n d r e f i n e t h e m o r e g e n e r a l c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n . A s a r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g y we w i l l f o c u s o n t h e p r o c e s s o f e x c h a n g e i n t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s a n d a t t e m p t t o e l i m i n a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s . T h i s s t r a t e g y i s a d o p t e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t we m i g h t be a b l e t o i d e n t i f y a r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e p r o c e s s f o r i n t e r p r e t i v e c h a n g e , a t l e a s t a t t h e s t r u c t u r a l l e v e l . Once s u c h a p r o c e s s i s i d e n t i f i e d we c a n t h e n move o n t o an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s a s d i s t i n c t f r o m t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s a n d f i n a l l y t o t h e c o n c a t e n a t i o n o f t h e two i n i n t e r a c t i o n . A t e a c h s t e p o f t h e r e s e a r c h t h e r e s u l t s w i l l , o f c o u r s e , i n f l u e n c e o u r e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k f o r i n t e r a c t i o n . I n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , we w i l l o n l y b e g i n t h e f i r s t s t e p . A n i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e p r o c e s s o f i n t e r p r e t i v e c h a n g e s w i l l b e made t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f two t h r e s h o l d m o d e l s f o r c h o i c e . 66 T h e s e m o d e l s w i l l b e s u b j e c t e d t o e x p e r i m e n t a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h t h e i r u t i l i t y f o r e x p l a i n i n g i n t e r -p r e t i v e c h a n g e s . T h e T h r e s h o l d M o d e l I n o u r c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k we p r o p o s e t h a t t h e p r o c e s s o f i n t e r p r e t i v e c h a n g e i n v o l v e s t h e o p e r a t i o n o f a t h r e s h o l d m o d e l o f c h o i c e . The v a r i e t y o f s u c h m o d e l s i s e n o r m o u s i f one i d e n t i f i e s t h e c h o i c e p r o c e s s s p e c i f i c a l l y . R a t h e r t h a n b e g i n s u c h a s e a r c h , t h e r e f o r e , we b e g a n t o l o o k f o r a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme o f t h r e s h o l d m o d e l s w h i c h w o u l d r e d u c e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s i n t o c l a s s e s . A c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h r e s h o l d m o d e l s w h i o h seems t o s a t i s f y o u r r e q u i r e m e n t s i s s u g g e s t e d b y A u d l e y a n d P i k e i n t h e i r d i s c u s s i o n o f c h o i c e b e h a v i o r . 6 1 * T h e i r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n r e d u c e s t h e number o f m o d e l s t o a s e t o f m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e t y p e s . By an e x a m i n a t i o n o f e a c h o f t h e t y p e s we c a n t h e n make a more p l a u s i b l e c h o i c e o f a p a r t i c u l a r c h o i c e m o d e l f o r i n t e r p r e t i v e c h a n g e s . I n a l l o f t h e i r s u g g e s t e d m o d e l s , t h e a c t u a l v a l u e o r l o c a t i o n o f a t h r e s h o l d f o r c h a n g e i s v a r i a b l e , s o t h a t i t c a n b e a d j u s t e d t o i n c l u d e a l l o r some o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e b e h a v i o r s w h i c h m i g h t b e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n . T h e d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e i r m o d e l s t h e n , i s n o t i n t h e a c t u a l l e v e l o f t h e t h r e s h o l d ( i . e . , t h e amount o f i n f o r m a t i o n i t t a k e s t o c h a n g e o n e ' s m i n d ) , b u t i n t h e m a n n e r i n w h i c h c o n f i r m i n g o r c o n t r a d i c t o r y i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t a n 67 i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s h a n d l e d . Two m a i n c l a s s e s o f m o d e l s a r e s u g g e s t e d : o n e i n w h i c h a c h o i c e i s made when an a b s o l u t e t h r e s h o l d o f i n f o r m a t i o n i s r e a c h e d a n d one w h i c h makes a c h o i c e when a d i f f e r e n c e t h r e s h o l d i s r e a c h e d . I n t h e f i r s t t y p e , e v i d e n c e f o r and a g a i n s t i s a d d e d s e p a r a t e l y i n two s u b s y s t e m s a n d t h e s u b s y s t e m t o r e a c h a p r e d e t e r m i n e d t h r e s h o l d a c t i v a t e s a c h o i c e . I n t h e s e c o n d t y p e , e v i d e n c e o f one t y p e ' c a n c e l s o u t ' e v i d e n c e o f a n o t h e r . T h i s p r o c e e d s u n t i l one t y p e p r e d o m i n a t e s s u f f i c i e n t l y t o r e a c h a p r e d e t e r m i n e d t h r e s h o l d a n d a c h o i c e i s m a d e . F o r e x a m p l e , i n a b i n a r y c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n , t h e i n d i v i d u a l i s c o n c e i v e d t o be p r o c e s s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h s u p p o r t s e i t h e r a c h o i c e o f * A ' o r a c h o i c e o f ' B ' . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s a s s u m e d t o be r e a c h i n g h i m a s a s e q u e n c e o f u n i t s . T h e a b s o l u t e t h r e s h o l d m e c h a n i s m w i l l a c t i v a t e a c h o i c e when t h e u n i t s r e l a t e d t o ' A ' r e a c h a p a r t i c u l a r number o r when a p a r t i c u l a r number o f u n i t s o f o n e t y p e o c c u r i n a r o w . ( E . g . , "When 10 e v e n t s o f t y p e A o c c u r , I w i l l c h o o s e t h e a c t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h A " ; "When 3 e v e n t s o f t y p e B o c c u r i n a r o w , I w i l l c h o o s e t h e a c t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b 1.'.) T h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a c t i v a t e s a c h o i c e when t h e u n i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h one a c t e x c e e d t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o t h e r a c t s b y a p a r t i c u l a r a m o u n t . ( E . g . , "When 3 more A t y p e e v e n t s t h a n B t y p e e v e n t s o c c u r , I w i l l c h o o s e A " . ) W i t h i n e a c h o f t h e s e m o d e l s , t h e r e a r e a number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s p e c i f i c m o d e l s , b u t e a c h c l a s s s e r v e s t o p u t t h e s p e c i f i c i n s t a n c e s i n t o a m o r e g e n e r a l f r a m e w o r k . F o r o u r 68 p u r p o s e s , t h i s l e v e l o f f o r m u l a t i o n a l l o w s u s t o l i n k o u r i n t e r -a c t i o n m o d e l t o r e s e a r c h i n a r e a s w h i c h a r e r e a s o n a b l y w e l l d e v e l o p e d , a n d t o i d e n t i f y a r e a s o f c r u c i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e t o o u r t h e o r y . T h i s c a n be d o n e o n l y i f 'we e s t a b l i s h t h e l i n k s b e t w e e n t h e c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s u g g e s t e d b y A u d l e y a n d P i k e a n d o u r m o d e l . T h e d e c i s i o n t h e o r i e s s u g g e s t e d b y A u d l e y a n d P i k e d e a l p r i m a r i l y w i t h t h e o r i e s a b o u t i n d i v i d u a l d e c i s i o n s a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e s t i m u l u s e n v i r o n m e n t . F o r t h a t r e a s o n , t h e y v i e w c h o i c e a s t h e r e s u l t o f a s a m p l i n g o f e l e m e n t s o f a s t i m u l u s . E l e m e n t s a s t h e y a r e u s e d i n s u c h t h e o r i e s a r e h y p o t h e t i c a l c o n c e p t s w h i c h may o r may n o t b e d i r e c t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s p e c i f i c e m p i r i c a l e v e n t s . F o r e x a m p l e , o n e s t i m u l u s may r e s u l t i n o n l y one e l e m e n t b e i n g s a m p l e d b y a n i n d i v i d u a l , o r i t may r e s u l t i n a g r o u p o f e l e m e n t s b e i n g s a m p l e d . I t i s on t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e e l e m e n t s , n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e s t i m u l u s a l o n e , 62. t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r c h o i c e r u l e i s u s e d t o make t h e d e c i s i o n . W i t h i n e a c h e m p i r i c a l s t u d y t h e n , t h e e l e m e n t s m u s t be i d e n t i f i e d . R a t h e r t h a n d e a l i n g w i t h s i n g l e c h o i c e s , h o w e v e r , we a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h i n t e r a c t i o n o v e r a s e r i e s o f e x c h a n g e s . F o r o u r p u r p o s e s , t h e l a n g u a g e o f s e q u e n c e s a m p l i n g i s more a p p r o p r i a t e t h a n t h e e x a c t f o r m o f t h e A u d l e y a n d P i k e m o d e l s . To u s e t h i s l a n g u a g e , we m u s t a l t e r t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s o n l y s l i g h t l y b y r e f e r r i n g t o s e q u e n c e s o f a c t s o v e r t i m e r a t h e r t h a n s e q u e n c e s o f e l e m e n t s s a m p l e d f r o m an e v e n t a t o n e p o i n t , i n t i m e . T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e n o t i o n o f a s t i m u l u s e l e m e n t , a l t h o u g h we may want t o v a r y i t f r o m a s t r i c t o n e - t o -69 one r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n an e l e m e n t a n d an a c t . A f t e r m a k i n g t h i s g e n e r a l c h a n g e we a r e i n a p o s i t i o n t o u s e t h e c o n c e p t u a l t o o l s o f c h o i c e t h e o r y i n o u r a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r p r e t i v e c h a n g e s . Our o b j e c t i v e a t t h i s p o i n t i s t o c o n c e p t u a l i z e the i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s i n s u c h a way t h a t we h a v e a b a s i s f o r p r o p o s i n g a p o i n t a t w h i c h c h a n g e i n t h a t p r o c e s s m i g h t o c c u r . S i n c e we a r e s u g g e s t i n g a t h r e s h o l d m o d e l , t h e c o n c e p t -u a l i z a t i o n r e q u i r e s a t l e a s t two e l e m e n t s : a u n i t o f a c t i v a t i o n o r e l e m e n t o f s t i m u l a t i o n and a r u l e f o r t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s t i m u l a t i o n . The u n i t o f a c t i v a t i o n i s n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o r e p r e s e n t t h e way i n w h i c h e v e n t s r e l a t e t o t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s . T h e r u l e f o r t h e e f f e c t o f s t i m u l a t i o n m u s t be e s t a b l i s h e d a t some l e v e l i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y a t h r e s h o l d . A s a g e n e r a l t h e o r e t i c a l l a n g u a g e f o r t h e s e two e l e m e n t s , we w i l l a d o p t t h o s e s p e c i f i e d b y A u d l e y a n d P i k e . E v e n t s ( o r " o t h e r ' s b e h a v i o r " i n o u r c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n ) a r e a s s u m e d t o a c t i v a t e u n i t s o f e x c i t a t i o n w i t h a c e r t a i n p r o b a b i l i t y . T h e s e u n i t s b u i l d up i n " s u b s y s t e m s " a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h o f t h e a v a i l a b l e r e s p o n s e s . I n o u r c a s e , t h e r e s p o n s e s a r e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , t h e u n i t s o f e x c i t a t i o n a r e h y p o t h e t i c a l c o n c e p t s , a n d t h e e v e n t s a r e l e f t t o be i d e n t i f i e d i n p a r t i c u l a r s u b s t a n t i v e s i t u a t i o n s . A s a n e x a m p l e o f t h e way i n w h i c h t h i s g e n e r a l t h e o r y may be g i v e n s u b s t a n c e , we may i d e n t i f y t h e e v e n t s a s e r r o r s i n a s i m p l e l e a r n i n g s i t u a t i o n . A p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r -p r e t i v e " s u b s y s t e m " ( e . g . , "I am l e a r n i n g " ) may a l l o w a c e r t a i n 70 number o f e r r o r s t o o c c u r b e f o r e a s u c c e s s i s m a d e . B e y o n d t h a t maximum number o f e r r o r s , h o w e v e r , t h e s u b s y s t e m w i l l s h i f t t o some o t h e r o n e ( e . g . , "I am n o t l e a r n i n g " ) . T h e a c c o u n t o f c h o i c e m o d e l s p r o v i d e d by A u d l e y and P i k e c a n be u s e d t o make a v e r y e f f i c i e n t u s e o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o c e d u r e . I f we c a n d e v e l o p a t e s t w h i c h w i l l d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t h e v a r i o u s c l a s s e s o f c h o i c e m e c h a n i s m s w h i c h a r e s u g g e s t e d , we may be a b l e t o e l i m i n a t e f r o m c o n s i d e r -a t i o n a g r e a t number o f c h o i c e m o d e l s a s u n r e a s o n a b l e . F r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t t h i s a p p e a r s t o be a m o s t d e s i r a b l e p o s s i b i l i t y . The f o c u s f o r t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f m o d e l s w h i c h A u d l e y and P i k e u s e i s t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e d e c i s i o n r u l e s f o r t h e p o i n t a t w h i c h t h e p r o c e s s moves f r o m one s u b -s y s t e m t o a n o t h e r . T h e y s u g g e s t two c l a s s e s o f d e c i s i o n r u l e s . I n t h e l a n g u a g e o f o u r m o d e l i n w h i c h s u b s y s t e m s a r e i d e n t i f i e d w i t h i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , t h e d e c i s i o n r u l e s may be s p e c i f i e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g m a n n e r . 1 . A b s o l u t e t h r e s h o l d : I n t h i s m o d e l , a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w i l l be made a s s o o n a s i t s s u b s y s t e m h a s g a i n e d a c e r t a i n number o f e v e n t s a s s u p p o r t . 2. D i f f e r e n c e t h r e s h o l d : I n t h i s m o d e l , an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w i l l be made a s s o o n a s i t s s u b s y s t e m h a s g a i n e d s u f f i c i e n t s u p p o r t e v e n t s t o e x c e e d a l l o t h e r s u b s y s t e m s b y a g i v e n a m o u n t . T h e a b s o l u t e t h r e s h o l d m o d e l s a r e s u b d i v i d e d i n t o two f u r t h e r c l a s s e s b y A u d l e y a n d P i k e . l a . T h e s i m p l e . a c c u m u l a t o r : I n t h i s m o d e l , e a c h s u b -s y s t e m a c c u m u l a t e s s u p p o r t u n t i l o n e r e a c h e s a common t h r e s h o l d v a l u e k . The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s made and t h e t o t a l s y s t e m r e v e r t s t o t h e o r i g i n a l v a l u e s . 71 l b . T h e r u n s m o d e l : I n t h i s m o d e l a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s made o n l y when an u n i n t e r r u p t e d r u n o f k u n i t s o f s u p p o r t i s r e c e i v e d b y a p a r t i c u l a r s u b s y s t e m . T h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t h e n p r o v i d e s u s w i t h t h r e e m o d e l s o f t h e way i n w h i c h i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s m i g h t be a c t i v a t e d o r c h a n g e d ; t h e s i m p l e a c c u m u l a t o r , t h e r u n s m o d e l a n d t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l . O f t h e s e t h r e e , t h e s i m p l e a c c u m u l a t o r c a n be r e j e c t e d f r o m c o n s i d e r a t i o n a s a l i k e l y m o d e l t o a c c o u n t f o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n c h a n g e s . T h i s m o d e l a s s u m e s t h a t t h e p e r s o n c h o o s i n g i s s e n s i t i v e o n l y t o t h e t o t a l number o f e v e n t s f o r a n d a g a i n s t a c h o i c e a n d n o t t o t h e o r d e r o f o c c u r r e n c e o f t h o s e e v e n t s . I t makes no p r o v i s i o n f o r t h e e f f e c t w h i c h m i g h t be e v i d e n c e a g a i n s t t h e c h o i c e , a t l e a s t up u n t i l t h e t h r e s h o l d v a l u e . F o r t h a t r e a s o n we h a v e d e c i d e d t o l i m i t o u r r e s e a r c h t o an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e c o m p a r a t i v e u t i l i t y o f t h e r u n s a n d d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l s . R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e I n d i v i d u a l P r o c e s s I n o r d e r t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n and t o l i m i t t h e r a n g e o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r t h e m o d e l s , we w i l l d e v e l o p a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e a n d d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s i n a l i m i t e d m a n n e r . T h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n w i l l p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r m o v i n g f r o m t h e g e n e r a l t h e o r y t o a more s p e c i f i c a c c o u n t o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l p r o c e s s . We w i l l d e a l f o r t h e t i m e - b e i n g w i t h a p r o c e s s i n v o l v i n g two p e r s o n s , t h r e e m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s f o r e a c h p e r s o n , a n d t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e r e s p o n s e s f o r e a c h 72 i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . T h e a r r a y o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r o n e o f t h e i n t e r a c t a n t s c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e b r a n c h i n g p r o c e s s i n F i g u r e 4 . 1 . F i g u r e 4 . 1 A c t (A) 73 A s a n e x a m p l e o f t h e way i n w h i c h F i g u r e 4 . 1 m i g h t r e p r e s e n t a s u b s t a n t i v e c h o i c e , we c a n s u b s t i t u t e t h e c a t e g o r i e s ' f r i e n d ' , ' f o e ' a n d ' u n c e r t a i n ' f o r 1^, I^ / a n d I^  r e s p e c t i v e l y . ' E m b r a c e 1 , ' s m i l e ' , ' r e q u e s t i n f o r m a t i o n ' , ' k i c k ' and ' p u n c h ' may be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r A ^ t o A ^ . T h i s a r r a n g e m e n t , o f c o u r s e , l e a d s t o a r a t h e r s i m p l i s t i c a c c o u n t o f t h e a s s o c i a t i o n s f o r an i n d i v i d u a l i f we s e e i t a s a s t a t i c a r r a n g e m e n t . I f we i n t r o d u c e i n t o t h i s a r r a n g e m e n t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f c h a n g e a n d a t t h e same t i m e p u t i t i n t o t h e c o n t e x t o f i n t e r a c t i o n , v e r y c o m p l e x f o r m s o f a c t i v i t y become p o s s i b l e . A t a s i m p l e l e v e l , we m i g h t h a v e a s i t u a t i o n w h e r e o n e i n d i v i d u a l (some p e r s o n o t h e r t h a n s e l f ) h a s a s t a b l e a s s o c i a t i o n b e t w e e n some a c t (A) a n d a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , a s w e l l a s b e t w e e n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a n d a c t s . I f I am a t t e m p t i n g t o d e v e l o p s u c h an a s s o c i a t i o n , t h e s i t u a t i o n b e c o m e s one o f a s i m p l e l e a r n i n g s i t u a t i o n . H o w e v e r , i f my r e s p o n s e s a f f e c t t h e o t h e r p e r s o n ' s a s s o c i a t i o n s , t h e p r o b l e m o f c o o r d i n a t i o n o f a c t i v i t y b e c o m e s v e r y c o m p l e x . I f t h e o t h e r p e r s o n c h a n g e s OUT r e l a t i o n s o n l y ( i . e . , r e p r e s e n t e d b y a c h a n g e i n ' c ' t o ' h ' ) t h e p r o b l e m f o r m y s e l f i n a t t e m p t i n g t o l e a r n a p p r o p r i a t e r e s p o n s e s i s i n c r e a s e d . I n F i g u r e 4 . 1 , t h i s w o u l d mean t h a t I c o u l d u s e t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f r e s p o n s e A ^ a n d A 2 o n t h e o t h e r ' s p a r t t o i d e n t i f y 1^ a s t h e a p p r o p r i a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . I f t h e o t h e r p e r s o n c h a n g e s IN a s s o c i a t i o n s a s w e l l ( i . e . , c h a n g e s ' a ' o r ' b ' ) s u c c e s s f u l c o o r d i n a t i o n b y m y s e l f b e c o m e s a l m o s t i m p o s s i b l e . I n F i g u r e 4 . 1 t h i s w o u l d mean t h a t t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f r e s p o n s e s A^ a n d A ? i n s e q u e n c e c o u l d mean t h a t t h e a p p r o p r i a t e 74 i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a r e f i r s t t h e n 1^, o r 1^ f o r b o t h r e s p o n s e s . I n t h e c a s e w h e r e A ^ a n d A ^ o c c u r , t h e p o s s i b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a r e i n c r e a s e d e v e n m o r e . I t i s one t h i n g t o l e a r n w h a t r e s p o n s e s t o make when y o u know t h a t t h e o t h e r p e r s o n i s a f r i e n d , b u t i t i s e x t e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o do i t when one i s n o t c e r t a i n w h e t h e r he i s a f r i e n d o r f o e . A p o s s i b l e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n c a n be made b y a l t e r i n g t h e e l e m e n t s o f o u r e x a m p l e i n F i g u r e 4 . 1 . I f we l e t A ^ a s w e l l a s A ^ r e p r e s e n t a s m i l e , we i n t r o d u c e i n t o t h e i n t e r a c t i o n a p o s s i b i l i t y f o r a m b i g u i t y w h i c h c a n c a r r y t h e c o o r d i n a t i o n i s s u e one s t e p f u r t h e r . A s m i l e may be made b y e i t h e r a f r i e n d o r a f o e . T h i s means t h a t t h e i n t e r a c t i o n h a s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f m o v i n g e i t h e r i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f an e m b r a c e o r a p u n c h . E v e n a t t h i s s i m p l e l e v e l t h e d y n a m i c f e a t u r e s o f t h e m o d e l become i m p o r t a n t . By f o c u s s i n g o n t h e p r o c e s s a t t h i s e l e m e n t a r y l e v e l , we h o p e t o show t h a t c o m p l e x b e h a v i o r may be d e v e l o p e d o u t o f s i m p l e m o d e l s t h r o u g h t h e c o m p o u n d i n g o f t h e m . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e s i g n i f i c a n t c o m p o u n d i n g f e a t u r e i s t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t i m e t h r o u g h t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s e q u e n c e . 75 CHAPTER 5 - THE EXPERIMENT T h e f o l l o w i n g e x p e r i m e n t i s d e s i g n e d t o e x a m i n e t h e r e l a t i v e l i k e l i h o o d o f o u r two t h r e s h o l d m o d e l s : t h e r u n s m o d e l and t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l . I n o r d e r t o i n t r o d u c e s u f f i c -i e n t s u b s t a n c e i n t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l , we h a v e r e c o n s t r u c t e d t h e p r e v i o u s t y p e o f s i t u a t i o n ( c f . F i g . 4 . 1 ) i n t o t h e f r a m e -w o r k o f a m e d i c a l d e c i s i o n . T h i s w i l l a l l o w u s a f r a m e w o r k i n w h i c h t o t e s t t h e t h r e s h o l d m o d e l s o u t l i n e d a b o v e . T h e ' . i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n s ' o f F i g u r e 4 . 1 (I-,/ a n d I 2 ) t h e n become d i s e a s e s t o be d i a g n o s e d , and t h e ' a c t s ' ( A , , t o A,.) become t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 1 b o f c e r t a i n d r u g s o r t h e r a p y o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e d i a g n o s i s ( c f . F i g . 5 .1 ) F i g u r e 5 .1 D r u g D r u g M o r e D r u g D r u g M o r e D r u g D r u g M o r e A B i n f o r m - A B i n f o r m - A B i n f o r m -a t i o n a t i o n a t i o n 76 T h i s f r a m e w o r k was c h o s e n b e c a u s e i t h a s a g r e a t many p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r e x p a n s i o n t o i n c l u d e more e l e m e n t s o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s i t u a t i o n i n . w h i c h we a r e i n t e r e s t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e d i s e a s e s may be i n c r e a s e d f r o m two t o a s many a s one w o u l d l i k e . I n a s i m i l a r w a y , t h e t y p e o f t h e r a p y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h d i s e a s e a n d i t s f r e q u e n c y o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n may be a l t e r e d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e c h o i c e t r e e may b e c o m p l e m e n t e d b y a n o t h e r t r e e r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e p a t i e n t . I n t h i s t r e e , symptoms w o u l d r e p l a c e a c t s a n d t h e y w o u l d b e r e l a t e d t o d i s -e a s e s o n t h e b a s i s o f d i f f e r e n t l i k e l i h o o d s o f a s s o c i a t i o n . T h i s m e a n s , f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t t h e " d o c t o r " i n t h e s i t u a t i o n may b e c o n f r o n t e d b y symptoms w h i c h a r e a m b i g u o u s l y r e l a t e d t o d i s e a s e s , j u s t a s he may h a v e d i s e a s e s f o r w h i c h a g i v e n t h e r a p y i s p r e s c r i b e d w i t h some u n c e r t a i n t y . We may a d d t h e e l e m e n t s o f i n t e r a c t i o n w h i c h a r e a n a l o g o u s t o t h e c o n d i t i o n o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c y b y a l l o w i n g t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f t h e r a p y a n d t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e d i s e a s e t o s h i f t o v e r t i m e . T h i s s i t u a t i o n t h e n b e c o m e s more s i m i l a r t o t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e h a v i o r w h i c h we h a d e n v i s a g e d i n t h e b e g i n n i n g o f o u r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . T h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f a d r u g may a f f e c t t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e d i s e a s e , and t h e j u d g e m e n t o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h e d i s e a s e o n t h e b a s i s o f u n c e r t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n may b i a s t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f t h e d i s e a s e b e i n g a c c u r a t e l y d i a g n o s e d i n t h e f u t u r e . T h i s d e s i g n w i l l a l s o a l l o w t h e e v e n t u a l i n t r o d u c -t i o n o f m o t i v a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e s i n t o t h e i n t e r a c t i o n t h r o u g h t h e 77 m a n i p u l a t i o n o f t h e s e r i o u s n e s s o f t h e d i s e a s e a n d t h e e f f e c t o f t h e t h e r a p y . To g e t t o t h i s p o i n t , h o w e v e r , w i l l t a k e some t i m e . We a r e s a t i s f i e d a t t h i s t i m e t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e d e s i g n f o r t h e c e n t r a l c o n c e r n o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . T h e G e n e r a l D e s i g n We w i l l now move f r o m a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l a s p e c t s o f o u r m o d e l t o a s p e c i f i c t e s t o f o n e o f i t s f e a t u r e s . T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s t e s t i s t o s e l e c t a c h o i c e m o d e l f o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n c h a n g e s . B y d o i n g t h i s w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f an e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n , we w i l l b e a b l e t o f e e l c o n f i d e n t t h a t we h a v e made a t l e a s t p l a u s i b l e a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e p r o c e s s . By d o i n g i t w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f o u r g e n e r a l m o d e l , we know w h e r e t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s f i t w i t h r e s p e c t t o o t h e r a s p e c t s o f i n t e r a c t i o n . I t w i l l be c l e a r t h a t t h e e x p e r i m e n t i s r e l a t e d t o o n l y a p o r t i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k . T h e e l e m e n t o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e , f o r e x a m p l e , w i l l b e c o n t r o l l e d ; o n l y o n e o f t h e " i n t e r a c t a n t s " w i l l be a l l o w e d t o c h a n g e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h a t a s p e c t o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k w h i c h d i v i d e s t h e c h o i c e p r o c e s s i n t o two s u b p r o c e s s e s i s n o t n e c e s s a r y t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e d a t a i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t . We w i l l d e s i g n t h e e x p e r i m e n t i n s u c h a way t h a t t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s w i l l b e e l i m i n a t e d . T h e e f f e c t o f t h i s w i l l be t o p e r m i t a o n e - s t e p m o d e l o f c h o i c e t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e d a t a . T h e r e a s o n f o r a d o p t i n g t h i s t y p e o f a s t r a t e g y i s 78 t o e x a m i n e o n l y one a s p e c t o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k a t a t i m e . One c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h i s s t r a t e g y i s t h a t we l o s e some o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o m p l e x i t y i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n , b u t we do e n d up w i t h a g r e a t e r d e g r e e o f c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p r o c e s s o f c h a n g e p r o p o s e d . I t w i l l become a p p a r e n t a s we p r o c e e d , f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e r e s u l t s o f o u r e x p e r i m e n t u s i n g a o n e - s t e p m o d e l o f t h e c h o i c e p r o c e s s . T h i s i s an a r t i f a c t o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l s t r a t e g y we h a v e c h o s e n , h o w e v e r , n o t t h e t h e o r e t i c a l m o d e l . I f we w e r e t o u s e s i m p l y t h e o n e - s t e p m o d e l a t a t h e o r e t i c a l l e v e l , we w o u l d n o t be a b l e t o e x t e n d t h e a n a l y s i s b e y o n d t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n we h a v e d e v e l o p e d . T h e p r o b l e m s w i t h a o n e - s t e p m o d e l w h i c h we o u t l i n e d i n C h a p t e r 1 w o u l d n o t be d e a l t w i t h , and t h e r a n g e o f phenomena w h i c h c a n be e x p l a i n e d b y t h e m o d e l w o u l d be d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e d . T h u s , we w i l l v i e w t h e e x p e r i m e n t a s a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h we h a v e c o n s t r a i n e d t h e r a n g e o f r e s p o n s e s i n t h e " d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s " , b u t n o t e l i m i n a t e d i t f r o m t h e o v e r a l l p r o c e s s o f c h o i c e . The p r i m a r y p r o b l e m b e s i d e s t h e d e s i g n f r a m e w o r k i s t h e e m p i r i c a l s e p a r a t i o n o f t h e two m o d e l s o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n c h a n g e w h i c h we w a n t t o d i s t i n g u i s h . I n w o r k i n g o u t t h i s s e p a r a t i o n , i t was c l e a r t h a t a t h i r d p o s s i b i l i t y i s i m p l i e d a s a n a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e two c h o i c e m o d e l s p r e s e n t e d p r e v i o u s l y . By s p e c i f y i n g e a c h o f t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s i n d e p e n d e n t l y , we a s s u m e t h a t p e r s o n s do n o t s h i f t b e t w e e n c l a s s e s o f m o d e l s o v e r t i m e o r o v e r d e c i s i o n - t y p e . S i n c e t h i s i s a l w a y s a p o s s i b i l i t y , we m u s t a l s o c o n s i d e r t h i s i n o u r e x p e r i m e n t . 79 A s a r e s u l t , we a r e l e f t w i t h t h r e e p o s s i b l e c h o i c e s t r a t e g i e s f o r i n t e r a c t a n t s w h i c h w i l l b e i n v e s t i g a t e d i n t h i s f i r s t e x p e r i m e n t . T h e y a l l p r o p o s e d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e e f f e c t o f i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e c h a n g e i n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w h i c h a n i n d i v i d u a l m a k e s . T h e f i r s t s u g g e s t s t h e r u n s m o d e l f o r t h e p r o c e s s , t h e s e c o n d s u g g e s t s t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l , and t h e t h i r d s u g g e s t s an a l t e r n a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e t w o . T h e g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t i s f a i r l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d . I t f o l l o w s c l o s e l y t h e s t r u c t u r e o u t -l i n e d i n F i g u r e s 4 . 1 a n d 5 . 1 . A s u b j e c t i s r e q u e s t e d t o d i a g n o s e o n e o f two d i s e a s e s o n t h e b a s i s o f a s e q u e n c e o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s . T h e s u b j e c t i s t o l d t h a t o n e d i s e a s e ( A n e u r o p h a s i a ) t y p i c a l l y p r o d u c e s a p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f h i g h b l o o d p r e s s u r e ( H B P ) , a l t h o u g h i t may d r o p f o r s h o r t p e r i o d s o f t i m e . T h e o t h e r d i s e a s e ( N e u r o p h a s i a ) t y p i c a l l y p r o d u c e s a p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f l o w b l o o d p r e s s u r e (LBP) a l t h o u g h i t t o o may show t h e o p p o s i t e r e a d i n g f o r s h o r t p e r i o d s o f t i m e . We h a v e c o i n e d t h e t e r m s " A n e u r o p h a s i a " (A) a n d " N e u r o p h a s i a " (N) t o r e p r e s e n t two d i s e a s e s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s r e s e a r c h . I n o r d e r t o d i a g n o s e t h e s e d i s e a s e s t h e n , t h e s u b j e c t m u s t a s k f o r a s e r i e s o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s a n d l o o k f o r t r e n d s i n t h a t s e q u e n c e o f r e a d i n g s . One r e a d i n g i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t s i n c e i t may be p r o d u c e d b y f a c t o r s u n r e l a t e d t o t h e d i s e a s e . O n l y by e x a m i n i n g a number o f r e a d i n g s w i l l a t r e n d e m e r g e . T h e s u b j e c t s a r e a l l o w e d t o r e q u e s t b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s f o r a s l o n g a s t h e y l i k e , a l t h o u g h t h e y a r e u n d e r one o t h e r s e v e r e c o n s t r a i n t . N o t o n l y w i l l i n a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s i s 80 l e a d t o t h e " p a t i e n t ' s " d e a t h , b u t t o d e l a y d i a g n o s i s (and t h e r e f o r e , t r e a t m e n t ) w i l l a l s o r e s u l t i n d e a t h t o t h e " p a t i e n t " T h e p r o c e d u r e i s c a r r i e d o u t a t t h e d i s p l a y t e r m i n a l o f a c o m p u t e r . T h e p r o g r a m b e g i n s w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e p r o c e d u r e a n d o f t h e r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n d i s e a s e s a n d s y m p t o m s . I t g i v e s t h e f i r s t b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g , a n d t h e n a s k s f o r a d i a g n o s i s . A t t h i s t i m e t h e s u b j e c t may t y p e ' A ' i f A n e u r o p h a s i a i s d i a g n o s e d , 1 N ' i f N e u r o p h a s i a i s d i a g n o s e d , o r ' B ' i f m o r e b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s a r e r e q u i r e d . I f a d i s e a s e i s d i a g n o s e d , t h e p r o g r a m w i l l i n t r o d u c e a new p a t i e n t a n d p r o c e e d w i t h a new s e t o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s . E a c h t i m e t h e s u b j e c t a s k s f o r a new r e a d i n g , t h e o l d r e a d i n g i s r e m o v e d f r o m t h e s c r e e n , a new one i s p r o v i d e d , a n d a r e q u e s t i s a g a i n made f o r a d i a g n o s i s . " T h i s p r o c e d u r e i s r e p e a t e d f o r f i v e " p a t i e n t s " . T h e B a s i c M o d e l and t h e E x p e r i m e n t Now t h a t we h a v e a g e n e r a l o u t l i n e o f t h e e x p e r -i m e n t , we c a n move t o t h o s e a s s u m p t i o n s w h i c h a r e n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e t h e p r o p o s i t i o n s w h i c h we w i s h t o t e s t . T h i s means t h a t we m u s t r e l a t e t h e l a n g u a g e o f t h e m o d e l s t o t h e e v e n t s i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t s . T h e f i r s t s e t o f c o n c e p t s c a n b e i n t r o d u c e d i n t h e same way a s t h e e l e m e n t s o f t h e b a s i c m o d e l . S .1 S e t P = { s , c } I n t h i s s e t we d e f i n e o n l y two " p e r s o n s " who a r e i n i n t e r a c t i o n ; s ( t h e s u b j e c t ) a n d c ( t h e c o m p u t e r ) . 81 5 . 2 S e t C = { ' A ' , ' N 1 , ' B ' , ' H i g h B P 1 , ' L o w B P 1 } S e t C c o n s i s t s o f a l l t h e c o m m u n i c a t i v e a c t s w h i c h c a n o c c u r . T h e f i r s t t h r e e e l e m e n t s a r e t h r e e l e t t e r s w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t c a n p u s h t o d i a g n o s e t h e two d i s e a s e s ( ' A ' o r ' N ' f o r A n e u r o p h a s i a o r N e u r o p h a s i a r e s p e c t i v e l y ) o r a s k f o r m o r e b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s ( ' B ' ) . T h e l a s t two e l e m e n t s i n s e t C a r e t h e i n d i c a t i o n s o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s w h i c h t h e m a c h i n e c a n d i s p l a y . 5 . 3 S e t I = { A n e u r o p h a s i a , N e u r o p h a s i a , U n c e r t a i n } T h e s e e l e m e n t s r e p r e s e n t t h e t h r e e p o s s i b l e i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n s w h i c h we assume t h e s u b j e c t may g i v e t o t h e s e q u e n c e o f a c t s . T h e f i r s t two r e p r e s e n t t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e s e q u e n c e o f r e a d i n g s a s b e i n g t h e r e s u l t o f a p a r t i c u l a r d i s e a s e , a n d t h e l a s t r e p r e s e n t s h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m a s u n c e r t a i n . R . l r e l a t i o n IN { ( c , ' H i g h B P ' , s , An) ( c , ' H i g h B P 1 , s , Ne) ( c , ' H i g h B P ' , s , Un) ( c , ' L o w B P ' , s , An) ( c , ' Low B P ' , s , Ne) ( c , ' L o w B P ' , s , Un) } T h i s r e l a t i o n r e p r e s e n t s t h e a r r a y o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w h i c h we a r e a s s u m i n g t h a t t h e s u b j e c t c a n make t o t h e v a r i o u s d i s p l a y s f r o m t h e c o m p u t e r . In t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f t h i s r e l a t i o n , we a r e i n c l u d i n g o n l y t h o s e e l e m e n t s w h i c h a p p l y t o t h e i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n o f t h e s u b j e c t . S i n c e t h e m a c h i n e i s p r o g r a m m e d t o r e s p o n d " i n a o n e - s t e p s t i m u l u s - r e s p o n s e f a s h i o n a n d n o t a c c o r d i n g t o t h e t w o - s t e p m o d e l we p r o p o s e f o r t h e s u b j e c t , we w i l l n o t i n c l u d e i t i n t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . T h i s r e l a t i o n i n c l u d e s e l e m e n t s i n w h i c h ' H i g h BP.' 82 i s r e l a t e d t o t h e ' a n e u r o p h a s i a 1 , ' n e u r o p h a s i a ' o r ' u n c e r t a i n ' s u b s y s t e m s o n t h e p a r t o f t h e s u b j e c t . T h i s i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f ' H i g h B P ' a s t h e r e s u l t o f ' a n e u r o -p h a s i a ' , ' n e u r o p h a s i a ' , o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f u n c e r t a i n t y o n t h e s u b j e c t ' s p a r t . I t a l s o i n c l u d e s e l e m e n t s w h e r e ' L o w B P ' i s r e l a t e d t o t h e s e t h r e e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . T h u s a l l t h e l o g i c a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r r e l a t i n g m a c h i n e r e s p o n s e s t o s u b j e c t i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n s a r e i n c l u d e d . T h r o u g h t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h i s r e l a t i o n , i t i s o b v i o u s t h a t f o r e a c h q u a d r u p l e , t h e e l e m e n t s c a n d s a r e t h e s a m e . T h i s i s one way i n w h i c h t h e f u l l a c c o u n t o f o u r o r i g i n a l c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k i n s e c t i o n 1 i s n o t n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t . T h i s i s a l s o t h e c a s e f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g r e l a t i o n . R .2 r e l a t i o n OUT = { ( c , A n , ' A ' , s) ( c , N e , ' N * , s) ( c , U n , ' B ' c ) } I n t h i s e x p e r i m e n t we w i l l a s s u m e t h a t t h e s u b j e c t h a s a v e r y s i m p l e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n a n d t h e a c t h e o r s h e w i l l p e r f o r m . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s b a s e d p r i m a r i l y o n t h e i n s t r u c t i o n s w h i c h we g i v e . F i r s t we a l l o w h i m o n l y o n e r e s p o n s e f o r e a c h s t a t e he may be i n . I n t e r m s o f o u r c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k t h i s means t h a t o n c e he h a s made an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , he h a s o n l y one r e s p o n s e p o s s i b l e . T h u s t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s , i s , i n e f f e c t , e l i m i n a t e d . S e c o n d , we i n c r e a s e t h e p r e s s u r e o n t h e s u b j e c t t o make h i s c h o i c e o f a c t i o n i m m e d i a t e l y u p o n m a k i n g an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . T h i s i s d o n e b y e m p h a s i z i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f an e a r l y d i a g n o s i s . We a r e a s s u m i n g t h a t when an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s m a d e , t h e s u b j e c t 83 w i l l i m m e d i a t e l y make a d i a g n o s i s w h i c h i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h a t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . I n t h i s way we c a n a s s u m e t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i s e l i m i n a t e d , s i n c e h e i s u n l i k e l y t o u t i l i z e t h e c h o i c e s t r a t e g y o f d e l a y . T h e C h o i c e M o d e l s a n d t h e E x p e r i m e n t Up t o t h i s p o i n t , we h a v e s i m p l y r e l a t e d t h e e l e m e n t s o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t s o f o u r b a s i c m o d e l . I n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t s u t i l i z e , we m u s t a l s o l i n k t h e e x p e r i m e n t t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t s o f t h e m o d e l s p r o p o s e d b y A u d l e y a n d P i k e . T h e f o l l o w i n g s e t o f a s s u m p t i o n s i s u s e d t o make t h a t l i n k . T h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s a r e m e a n t , n o t a s t h e b a s i s o f a f o r m a l t h e o r y , b u t o n l y a s a n i n d i c a t i o n o f t h o s e p o i n t s a t w h i c h t h e m o r e c r i t i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s a r e m a d e . I t w i l l b e a p p a r e n t , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t we do n o t p r o v i d e a n e x h a u s t i v e a c c o u n t o f a l l t h e a s s u m p t i o n s n e c e s s a r y t o move f r o m t h e c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k t o t h e e x p e r i m e n t . ASSUMPTION 1: E a c h e l e m e n t o f s e t I r e p r e s e n t s a s u b s y s t e m a s s o c i a t e d w i t h an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n s i m p l y i d e n t i f i e s t h e u s e o f t h e n o t i o n o f a n i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n t h e b a s i c m o d e l w i t h t h e c o n c e p t o f a s u b s y s t e m i n t h e c h o i c e m o d e l p r o p o s e d b y A u d l e y and P i k e . ASSUMPTION 2: E a c h e l e m e n t o f S e t C w h i c h t h e c o m p u t e r p r e s e n t s , r e p r e s e n t s one u n i t o f e x c i t a t i o n f o r e a c h s u b -s y s t e m f o r t h e s u b j e c t a c c o r d i n g t o t h e f o l l o w i n g s c h e m e . HBP = o n e u n i t f o r t h e s u b s y s t e m a s s o c i a t e d w i t h A n e u r o p h a s i a LBP = one u n i t f o r t h e s u b s y s t e m a s s o c i a t e d w i t h N e u r o p h a s i a 84 • I f a t h r e s h o l d h a s n o t b e e n r e a c h e d , t h e s u b s y s t e m a s s o c i a t e d w i t h U n c e r t a i n t y i s a c t i v a t e d . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n l i n k s u n i t s o f e x c i t a t i o n a n d s y m p t o m s . I t a s s u m e s , a s w e l l , t h a t t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f a symptom n e c e s s a r i l y h a s an e f f e c t o n t h e s t a t e o f t h e s u b s y s t e m i n a p a r t i c u l a r m a n n e r . T h i s p a r t o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n i s b a s e d o n t h e i n s t r u c t i o n t o t h e s u b j e c t w h i c h l i n k s symptoms t o d i s e a s e s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g w a y . HBP i s s y m p t o m a t i c o f A n e u r o p h a s i a , a n d LBP i s s y m p t o m a t i c o f N e u r o p h a s i a , a l t h o u g h t h e y do n o t r e l a t e t o t h e d i s e a s e s i n a d e t e r m i n i s t i c f a s h i o n . T h e s u b j e c t i s i n f o r m e d t h a t A n e u r o p h a s i a i s t y p i c a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f h i g h b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s , b u t o n e m u s t b e c a r e f u l t o e x a m i n e s e v e r a l r e a d i n g s o v e r t i m e i n o r d e r t o l o o k a t t r e n d s . S i m i l a r l y he o r s h e i s t o l d t h a t N e u r o -p h a s i a i s t y p i c a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f l o w b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s ( c f . A p p e n d i x A a n d B ) . T h e p u r p o s e o f t h e s e i n s t r u c t i o n s f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f t h e m o d e l , was t o i n t r o d u c e t o t h e s u b j e c t a n i n i t i a l s t r u c t u r e o f a s s o c i a t i o n s , a n d y e t a t t h e same t i m e t o l e a v e h i m an o p p o r t u n i t y t o c h a n g e t h e m . A s we h a v e d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , i t w o u l d be i m p o s s i b l e f o r u s t o c r e a t e a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h t h e r e a r e no i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o n t h e p a r t o f t h e s u b j e c t a t l e a s t a t some l e v e l . O u r s t r a t e g y , t h e n , h a s b e e n t o p r o v i d e t h e s u b j e c t w i t h a g e n e r a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e e v e n t s ( i . e . , p u t i t i n t o t h e c o n t e x t o f m e d i c a l d i a g n o s i s ) a n d a r a n g e o f p o s s i b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w i t h i n t h a t g e n e r a l f r a m e w o r k . We c a n t h e n e x a m i n e t h e manner i n w h i c h c h a n g e s a r e made f r o m one 85 t y p e o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t o a n o t h e r w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t we h a v e p r o v i d e d . T h e F i r s t Mode o f A n a l y s i s We a r e now i n a p o s i t i o n t o s p e c i f y p r e c i s e l y t h e i n f e r e n c e s we w i l l d r a w f r o m t h e way i n w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t b e h a v e s . T h e c r u c i a l a s p e c t o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t i n t h i s r e g a r d i s t h e s e q u e n c e i n w h i c h t h e symptoms a r e p r e s e n t e d t o t h e s u b -j e c t . I n s o f a r a s t h e s u b j e c t i s c o n c e r n e d , t h e a s s o c i a t i o n b e t w e e n a symptom a n d a d i s e a s e i s p r o b a b i l i s t i c a l l y d e t e r m i n e d . F r o m t h e e x p e r i m e n t e r ' s p o i n t o f v i e w , t h i s a s s o c i a t i o n i s p u r p o s e l y m a n i p u l a t e d i n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e t h r e e m o d e l s . T h e m o d e l s make p r e d i c t i o n s a b o u t t h e p o i n t a t w h i c h a t h r e s h o l d w i l l be r e a c h e d . O n c e a t h r e s h o l d i s r e a c h e d , we e x p e c t t h e s u b j e c t t o move f r o m a s t a t e o f u n c e r t a i n t y t o one i n w h i c h a d i s e a s e i s d i a g n o s e d . We w i l l t h e r e f o r e be l o o k i n g a t t h i s p o i n t a s a means o f i d e n t i f y i n g t h e t y p e o f c h o i c e m o d e l t h e s u b j e c t i s u s i n g . By r e f e r r i n g t o T a b l e 5 . 1 we w i l l show how t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms may be p r e s e n t e d t o a s u b j e c t a n d t h e way i n w h i c h t h e m o d e l s may be i n f e r r e d f r o m h i s o r h e r r e s p o n s e s . T h e symptoms a r e p r e s e n t e d i n s e q u e n c e w i t h t h e i r v a l u e s b e i n g e i t h e r H ( H i g h B l o o d P r e s s u r e ) o r L (Low B l o o d P r e s s u r e ) . T h e e x a m p l e i n T a b l e 5 .1 i s o f an i n d i v i d u a l who r e c e i v e s a r e a d i n g o f H f o r t h e f i r s t t r i a l . S i n c e h i g h b l o o d p r e s s u r e i s t y p i c a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h A n e u r o p h a s i a , we e x p e c t (by a s s u m p t i o n 2) t h a t t h e s u b s y s t e m f o r A n e u r o p h a s i a i s e x c i t e d b y one u n i t . T h i s 86 T a b l e 5 . 1 ( E x a m p l e o f symptom s e q u e n c e a n d l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n f o r one " p a t i e n t " ) T r i a l N o . Symptom V a l u e f o r V a l u e f o r M o d e l s s u p p o r t e d D i f f e r e n c e Runs if_ d i a g n o s i s M o d e l M o d e l made o n t r i a l i n d i c a t e d * 1 H 1 1 D R 2 L 0 1 3 L 1 2 R 4 H 0 1 5 L 1 1 6 L 2 2 D 7 H 1 1 8 L 2 1 9 H 1 1 10 H 0 2 11 H 1 3 R * N o t e : when d i a g n o s i s m a d e , s e q u e n c e o f symptoms i s t e r m i n a t e d . 87 e x c i t a t i o n i s t h e same f o r b o t h m o d e l s ( t h e " d i f f e r e n c e " a n d t h e " r u n s " m o d e l ) a n d t h e y t h e r e f o r e a r e b o t h g i v e n "k" v a l u e o f 1 u n i t o f e x i c t a t i o n . The v a l u e o f k r e p r e s e n t s t h e l e v e l o f t h e t h r e s h o l d f o r c h o i c e , u n d e r a p a r t i c u l a r c h o i c e m o d e l . When t h e v a l u e o f k r e a c h e s t h e s u b j e c t ' s t h r e s h o l d , we a r e a s s u m i n g t h a t he w i l l make a d i a g n o s i s . I f t h e s u b j e c t d i a g n o s e s a d i s e a s e a f t e r t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f t h e f i r s t s y m p t o m , we a r e u n a b l e t o i n f e r w h i c h o f t h e t w o - c h o i c e m o d e l s i s i n o p e r a t i o n . We d o know, h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n n e c e s s a r y t o r e a c h t h e t h r e s h o l d i s 1 ( i . e . , k = 1 ) . B y m a k i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g a s s u m p t i o n we c a n a d a p t t h e s e q u e n c e i n s u c h a way a s t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n t h e v a r i o u s m o d e l s . ASSUMPTION 3 : T h e l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n n e c e s s a r y t o r e a c h t h e t h r e s h o l d ( i . e . , t h e v a l u e o f k) i s c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e e x p e r i m e n t f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l . E a c h i n d i v i d u a l n e e d n o t h a v e t h e same v a l u e o f k , h o w e v e r . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n c a n be c h e c k e d b y r e p e t i t i o n s o f t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms f o r "new p a t i e n t s " b y e a c h s u b j e c t . F o r t h a t r e a s o n we a s k e a c h s u b j e c t t o d i a g n o s e f o r f i v e p a t i e n t s , e a c h p a t i e n t h a v i n g a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t s e q u e n c e o f s y m p t o m s . I f t h e s u b j e c t d o e s n o t d i a g n o s e a d i s e a s e a f t e r t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f t h e f i r s t s y m p t o m , he o r s h e w i l l r e c e i v e a b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g o f L ( c f . t r i a l 2 i n T a b l e 5 .1 ) f o r t h e n e x t t r i a l . T h i s symptom i s a s s u m e d t o a c t i v a t e a u n i t o f e x c i t a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s u b s y s t e m f o r N e u r o p h a s i a . S i n c e t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l p r e d i c t s t h a t t h i s u n i t o f e x c i t a t i o n w i l l i n t e r f e r e w i t h t h e u n i t a l r e a d y a c c u m u l a t e d f o r A n e u r o p h a s i a , 88 we a s s i g n a v a l u e o f z e r o t o t h e s u b s y s t e m f o r t h a t m o d e l o n l y . T h e r u n s m o d e l t a k e s t h e v a l u e o f o n e , s i n c e t h e r u n o f ' H ' h a s b e e n t e r m i n a t e d a n d t r i a l 2 s t a r t s a r u n o f ' L ' . S h o u l d t h e s u b j e c t d i a g n o s e a d i s e a s e a f t e r t h e s e c o n d s y m p t o m , we a r e u n a b l e t o i n f e r s u p p o r t f o r e i t h e r o f t h e two m o d e l s . T h e l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i s z e r o , s o t h a t we w o u l d e x p e c t no c h o i c e t o o c c u r . F o r t h e r u n s m o d e l , t h e l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n i s 1 . S i n c e b y a s s u m p t i o n 3 , t h e v a l u e o f t h e t h r e s h o l d i s n o t e x p e c t e d t o c h a n g e , a n d we h a v e a l r e a d y p a s s e d t h e p o i n t w h e r e k e q u a l s 1 f o r t h e r u n s m o d e l (on t r i a l 1 ) , we w o u l d e x p e c t no c h a n g e t o o c c u r u n d e r t h i s m o d e l e i t h e r . A c h a n g e a t t h i s p o i n t w o u l d mean e i t h e r a f a i l u r e o f t h e m o d e l s o r o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n s we h a v e made i n o r d e r t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e t h e m o d e l s . F o l l o w i n g t h e a b o v e l i n e o f a r g u m e n t , we w i l l be a b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e m o d e l s w h i c h w o u l d be s u p p o r t e d i f d e c i s i o n s o c c u r r e d a t v a r i o u s p o i n t s i n t h e s e q u e n c e ( c f . " M o d e l s s u p p o r t e d " c o l u m n i n T a b l e 5 . 1 ) . F o r e x a m p l e , a d i a g n o s i s made a f t e r t r i a l 3 w o u l d s u p p o r t t h e r u n s m o d e l a t k = 2 : d i a g n o s i s a f t e r t r i a l 6 w o u l d s u p p o r t t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a t k = 2 , e t c . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t o n c e a d i a g n o s i s i s m a d e , t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms f o r t h a t p a r t i c u l a r p a t i e n t w i l l s t o p and t h e n e x t p a t i e n t w i l l be i n t r o d u c e d t o t h e s u b j e c t . I n t h a t r e s p e c t T a b l e 5 .1 i s d e c e p t i v e i f one d o e s n o t v i e w t h e p r o c e s s t e r m i n a t i n g a t a p o i n t o f d i a g n o s i s . T h e u s e o f t h e c o m p u t e r w i l l a l l o w u s t o c h e c k o u t t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e s u b j e c t s ' r e s p o n s e s w i t h a min imum o f e f f o r t . O n c e a d i a g n o s i s o c c u r s , t h e m a c h i n e w i l l i d e n t i f y 89 t h e m o d e l s a n d t h r e s h o l d v a l u e s s u p p o r t e d b y t h e d i a g n o s i s and s e t up f u t u r e s e q u e n c e s o f symptoms i n s u c h a way a s t o : 1 . d i f f e r e n t i a t e t h e m o d e l s u n i q u e l y 2 . c h e c k A s s u m p t i o n 3 ( r e . t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e t h r e s h o l d v a l u e k) 3 . c h e c k t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e s u b j e c t u s e s d i f f e r e n t d e c i s i o n m o d e l s t h r o u g h o u t t h e e x p e r i m e n t . E a c h s u b j e c t w i l l b e r u n w i t h s u f f i c i e n t " p a t i e n t s " t o c h e c k a l l o f t h e s e a s p e c t s . S i n c e t h e p r o b l e m s o f m a k i n g i n f e r e n c e s f r o m t h e s e q u e n c e i n c r e a s e s a s t h e v a l u e o f k g e t s l a r g e r , we h a v e d e c i d e d t o s e t up t h e e x p e r i m e n t i n s u c h a way t h a t t h e l e v e l o f t h e s u b s y s t e m t h r e s h o l d s i s l o w . T h e a c t u a l v a l u e 'of k i s n o t o f t h e o r e t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e a t t h i s t i m e s i n c e i t may v a r y w i t h i n e a c h o f t h e m o d e l s w i t h o u t m a k i n g them i n d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e . S i n c e i t s v a l u e d o e s make a d i f f e r e n c e t o t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n , h o w e v e r , we m u s t make an a s s u m p t i o n a b o u t t h e way i n w h i c h i t i s e x p e r i m e n t a l l y i n t e g r a t e d i n t o t h e m o d e l s . A h i g h v a l u e o f k r e q u i r e s i n , m o s t c a s e s , t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n . T h i s may b e c o s t l y t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l a n d a c t t o i n f l u e n c e t h e v a l u e o f k . ASSUMPTION 4 : T h e g r e a t e r t h e c o s t s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e l o w e r w i l l be t h e l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n r e q u i r e d t o a c t i v a t e a d i a g n o s i s . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s made i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r d e s i g n f e a t u r e s w h i c h c a n k e e p t h e v a l u e o f k l o w . We i n f o r m t h e s u b j e c t t h a t e a c h t i m e a b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g i s r e q u e s t e d i t r e p r e s e n t s t h e p a s s a g e o f a b o u t 3 0 m i n u t e s . We a l s o i n f o r m t h e s u b j e c t t h a t t h e d i s e a s e i s 90 u s u a l l y t e r m i n a l a f t e r 3 d a y s o f i t s o n s e t i f no p r o p e r t r e a t m e n t i s a d m i n i s t e r e d . By e m p h a s i z i n g t h e c o s t o f a s l o w d i a g n o s i s we w e r e a b l e t o s e t t l e on a r e s e a r c h d e s i g n w h i c h k e p t t h e k v a l u e s s m a l A t t h e same t i m e t h a t t h e c o s t s o f a s l o w d i a g n o s i s was e m p h a s i z e d , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o i n s u r e t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s ' c o m m i t m e n t t o a n a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s i s was n o t j e o p a r d i z e d . The e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s e d p r e s s u r e f o r an a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s i s h a s t h e e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g t h e v a l u e o f k a n d w o r k i n g a g a i n s t t h e e f f e c t s o f o u r demand f o r an e a r l y d i a g n o s i s . The e f f e c t o f t h i s p r e s s u r e f o r a c c u r a c y c a n be m o r e f o r m a l l y r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g a s s u m p t i o n . ASSUMPTION 5: The g r e a t e r t h e c o s t s o f an i n a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r s u b s y s t e m , t h e g r e a t e r i s t h e l e v e l o f e x c i t a t i o n r e q u i r e d t o a c t i v a t e t h a t r e s p o n s e . Our s o l u t i o n t o t h i s d i l e m m a o f c o n t r a d i c t o r y p r e s s u r e s was t o t r y v a r i o u s c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r e s s u r e f o r a c c u r a c y a n d f o r an e a r l y d i a g n o s i s i n a s e r i e s o f p r e t e s t e x p e r i m e n t s . We d e v i s e d a c o m b i n a t i o n i n w h i c h m o s t p e r s o n s made t h e i r c h o i c e s w i t h i n a b o u t 10 t r i a l s a n d a t t h e same t i m e g a v e some i n d i c a t i o n s i n t h e i r p o s t e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r v i e w s t h a t a c c u r a c y o f d i a g n o s i s was o f c o n c e r n t o t h e m . I n a d d i t i o n , we p r o g r a m m e d t h e c o m p u t e r t o p r i n t o u t : "YOU HAVE GIVEN THE WRONG DIAGNOSIS - YOUR P A T I E N T HAD D IED" i f t h e s u b j e c t made a d i a g n o s i s o n t h e f i r s t o r s e c o n d t r i a l . T h i s was d o n e i n an a t t e m p t t o i n c r e a s e p r e s s u r e o n h i m o r h e r t o r e f r a i n f r o m m a k i n g a d i a g n o s i s on t h e s e t r i a l s s i n c e we w e r e u n a b l e t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s u s e d o n t h e b a s i s o f one o r two t r i a l s . 91 CHAPTER 6 - RESULTS AND A N A L Y S I S T h i s c h a p t e r i n v o l v e s t h e u s e o f t h r e e m a i n t y p e s o f a n a l y s i s . T h e f i r s t t y p e h a s b e e n o u t l i n e d i n C h a p t e r 5 a s t h e " f i r s t mode f o r a n a l y s i s " ( p . 5 8 ) . T h i s mode ( o r s t r a t e g y ) i n v o l v e s t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e t h r e s h o l d (k) v a l u e s f o r e a c h s u b j e c t a r e e q u a l f o r a l l p a t i e n t s d i a g n o s e d b y t h a t s u b j e c t . ( c f . A s s u m p t i o n 3 , p . 8 7 ) . I n t h e c o u r s e o f o u r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i t became c l e a r t h a t t h i s a s s u m p t i o n was u n r e a s o n a b l e and a s e c o n d mode o f a n a l y s i s was d e v i s e d . T h i s mode d o e s n o t r e q u i r e t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e t h r e s h o l d v a l u e s a r e c o n s t a n t , b u t u s e s i n s t e a d , t h e g e o m e t r i c p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n a s a b a s i s f o r g e n e r a t i n g e x p e c t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e o u t c o m e o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t . A f t e r t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h i s s e c o n d mode o f a n a l y s i s , i t was a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t i m e p r e s s u r e t o d i a g n o s i s was v e r y s t r o n g o n t h e s u b j e c t s . A s a r e s u l t , a t h i r d t y p e o f a n a l y s i s was d e v i s e d w h i c h a l l o w s f o r t h i s e f f e c t . S i n c e e a c h mode o f a n a l y s i s h a s p r o v i d e d some i n s i g h t i n t o t h e f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n t h i s t y p e o f c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n , i t was d e c i d e d t o i n c l u d e e a c h o f them i n a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s . B e f o r e we b e g i n a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e d a t a w i t h r e s p e c t t o o u r c e n t r a l h y p o t h e s i s , we w i l l o u t l i n e some o f t h e m o r e g e n e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f o u r d a t a . T h i s s h o u l d p r o v i d e some i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e r a n g e o f b e h a v i o r we f o u n d . S u b j e c t s w e r e r u n u s i n g t h e d e s i g n o u t l i n e d i n A p p e n d i x A . E a c h s u b j e c t was r e q u e s t e d t o d i a g n o s e f i v e p a t i e n t s . We a s s u m e d t h a t t h e d i a g n o s i s o f t h e f i r s t p a t i e n t 92 was u n s u i t a b l e f o r a n a l y s i s s i n c e i t i n v o l v e d a c e r t a i n amount o f l e a r n i n g , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e t e l e t y p e c o n s o l e . O u r a n a l y s i s , t h e r e f o r e , was d o n e o n t h e l a s t f o u r p a t i e n t s w h i c h e a c h s u b j e c t d i a g n o s e d . The r a n g e o f t r i a l s t o d i a g n o s e f o r t h e s e f o u r p a t i e n t s i s g i v e n i n T a b l e 6.1 a l o n g w i t h t h e mean number o f t r i a l s t o d i a g n o s e . T a b l e 6.1 Minimum!/, maximum.-and mean number o f t r i a l s t o d i a g n o s i s f o r t h e l a s t f o u r p a t i e n t s . P a t i e n t 2 P a t i e n t .3 P a t i e n t 4 P a t i e n t 5 Min imum 1 1 2 1 Maximum 11 24 20 19 Mean 5.9 . 9.7 8.6 9.7 93 T h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms f o r p a t i e n t s t h r e e a n d f i v e a r e i d e n t i c a l e x c e p t f o r t h e r e v e r s a l o f t h e t y p e o f symptoms ( i . e . , f o r p a t i e n t f i v e , ' H i g h B P ' o c c u r r e d a t t h o s e p o i n t s w h e r e ' L o w B P ' o c c u r r e d i n p a t i e n t t h r e e , a n d ' L o w B P ' o c c u r r e d a t t h o s e p o i n t s w h e r e ' H i g h B P ' o c c u r r e d . ) ( c f . A p p e n d i x C a f o r . t h e s c h e d u l e o f s y m p t o m s ) . T h i s s i m i l a r i t y i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e s i m i l a r i t y o f mean t r i a l s t o d e c i s i o n f o r p a t i e n t s t h r e e and f i v e . P a t i e n t f o u r i n c l u d e s a s h o r t e r s e q u e n c e o f a l t e r n a t i n g symptom t y p e s t h a n p a t i e n t s t h r e e a n d f i v e . T h i s h a s t h e e f f e c t o f r e d u c i n g t h e mean t r i a l s t o d e c i s i o n . P a t i e n t two h a s t h e l o w e s t mean v a l u e b e c a u s e t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms moves t o a c o n t i n u a l s e q u e n c e o f ' H i g h B P ' v e r y e a r l y i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t . T h i r t y - f i v e s u b j e c t s w e r e r u n i n t o t a l . ^ 4 . The t r i a l s t o d i a g n o s i s f o r t h e s e s u b j e c t s a l o n g w i t h t h e s c h e d u l e o f symptoms p r e s e n t e d t o t h e s u b j e c t s c a n be f o u n d i n A p p e n d i x C . I n s p i t e o f t h e f a c t t h a t o u r t h e o r y made no s u g g e s t i o n t h a t s e x , o r a w a r e n e s s o f t h e " a r t i f i c i a l " n a t u r e o f t h e c h o i c e w o u l d a f f e c t t h e u s e o f c e r t a i n c h o i c e m o d e l s , we k e p t i n f o r m a t i o n o n b o t h o f t h e s e f a c t o r s . T h e r e a s o n f o r t h i s was s i m p l y t h a t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s h a v e h a d an e f f e c t i n many o t h e r c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n s a n d m i g h t h a v e t o be c o n t r o l l e d i n t h i s one a s w e l l . A s i t t u r n e d o u t , p a t t e r n s e m e r g e d i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e m . T e s t o f A s s u m p t i o n 3 a n d t h e S e c o n d Mode o f A n a l y s i s Our d e s i g n p e r m i t t e d a t e s t o f o u r a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e v a l u e o f k i s c o n s t a n t o v e r e a c h s u b j e c t ( c f . A s s u m p t i o n 94 T a b l e 6 . 2 V a l u e s o f k f o r 5 s u b j e c t s b y p a t i e n t n u m b e r . P a t i e n t number S u b j e c t number 2 3 4 5 r a n g e 1 - 2 3 2 2 - 3 2 3 , 4 * - 4 , 3 2 2 -4 3 1 - 2 - 1-2 4 6 , 7 5 5 3 3 -7 5 4 , 5 4 , 3 - 3 3 - 5 ' - ' i n d i c a t e s no k v a l u e c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d b y t h e c h o i c e p o i n t * b o t h k v a l u e s a r e g i v e n w h e r e two m o d e l s a r e i m p l i e d . 95 3 ) . I t was i m p o r t a n t t o c h e c k t h i s o u t s i n c e t h e s t r a t e g y o f a n a l y s i s we o r i g i n a l l y p l a n n e d was d e p e n d e n t o n i t s s u p p o r t . H o w e v e r , i t s o o n became c l e a r t h a t t h i s was an u n r e a s o n a b l e a s s u m p t i o n t o m a k e . ( c f . T a b l e 6 . 2 ) . O f t h e f i r s t f i v e p r e t e s t s u b j e c t s r u n , n o n e made t h e i r c h o i c e s w i t h t h e same v a l u e o f k f o r a l l p a t i e n t s . T h e r a n g e o f v a l u e s i n one c a s e was a s h i g h a s f i v e ( c f . s u b j e c t n o . 4 ) . We e i t h e r h a d t o r e v i s e t h e e x p e r i m e n t o r d e v e l o p an a l t e r n a t e mode o f a n a l y s i s . A s i t t u r n e d o u t , a n o t h e r t e c h n i q u e o f a n a l y s i s was p o s s i b l e , a n d s i n c e t h i s s a v e d a g r e a t d e a l o f w o r k i n r e -d o i n g t h e d e s i g n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t , we c h o s e t o u s e i t . T h i s m e t h o d u s e d t h e n o t i o n o f m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p e c t a t i o n i n o r d e r t o c o n s t r u c t a s t a n d a r d f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f c h o i c e s . A s u b j e c t ' s c h o i c e m i g h t f a l l o n o n e o f f o u r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f t r i a l s i f we c l a s s i f y t h e t r i a l s o f c h o i c e b y t h e t y p e o f c h o i c e m o d e l t h e y i m p l y . T h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s a r e : T y p e 1 . T h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e T y p e 2 . The r u n s m o d e l a l o n e . T y p e 3 . T h e d i f f e r e n c e a n d / o r t h e r u n s m o d e l T y p e 4* No m o d e l . T h e s e c a t e g o r i e s a r e m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e a n d e a c h t r i a l c a n be i d e n t i f i e d b y one o f t h e m . F o r e x a m p l e , i f a s u b j e c t made h i s d i a g n o s i s o n t r i a l 1 o f t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms i n T a b l e 5 . 1 , i t w o u l d s u p p o r t t h e d i f f e r e n c e a n d / o r t h e r u n s m o d e l ( t y p e 3 o u t c o m e ) , i f he made h i s d i a g n o s i s o n t r i a l 2 , i t w o u l d s u p p o r t no m o d e l ( t y p e 4 o u t c o m e ) , i f he made h i s c h o i c e o n 96 t r i a l 3 i t would support the runs model alone (type 2 outcome), and so on. Within the eleven t r i a l s shown i n Table 5.1 there i s one opportunity for a type 1 outcome, two opportunities for type 2, one opportunity for type 3, and seven opportunities for type 4. The chance of a random choice f a l l i n g on one or the other of these types i s not equal, so i f we f i n d a difference i n the number of times one type of model i s used over the others, i t w i l l be very d i f f i c u l t to e s t a b l i s h whether t h i s i s a function of biases i n the opportunities for each model being used, or of subjects' preference of one model over the others. I t w i l l therefore be necessary to set up a standard for comparison which r e f l e c t s the d i f f e r e n t opportunities which each model has by virt u e of the symptom sequence, but does not r e f l e c t i n d i v i d u a l preferences. To do t h i s we begin by asking the question: "If the subjects always diagnosed randomly, what k i n d of d i s t r i b u t i o n of outcome types would we expect?" In order to a t t a i n such a d i s t r i b u t i o n , we can treat the making of a decision as the occurrence of a success i n a binomial t r i a l . At each decision point then, the subject has some p r o b a b i l i t y (p) of making a decision. If the process i s a random one, then we would expect the p r o b a b i l i t y to be the same for each t r i a l . This assumes that i n random choice behavior there i s nothing to d i f f e r e n t i a t e a choice at one point from a choice at another point. Using t h i s framework, we can then calculate the 97 t h e o r e t i c a l p r o b a b i l i t y f o r a c h o i c e b e i n g made a t e a c h t r i a l i n t h e f o l l o w i n g w a y . I f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a c h o i c e o n e a c h t r i a l i s t h e same ( e . g . , p) t h e n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f i n a l d e c i s i o n o n t h e f i r s t t r i a l i s p , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f i n a l d e c i s i o n o n t h e s e c o n d t r i a l i s t h e p r o d u c t o f no c h o i c e o n t h e f i r s t a n d a c h o i c e o n t h e s e c o n d [ i . e . ( l - p ) p ] . T h e same p r o c e d u r e c a n b e r e p e a t e d f o r t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f i n a l d e c i s i o n o n t h e t h i r d [ i . e . , ( 1 - p ) ( 1 - p ) p ] , f o u r t h , [ i . e . : t h n™ 1 ( 1 - p ) ( 1 - p ) ( l - p ) p ] and n I ( 1 - p ) p] t r i a l s . T h e r e s u l t i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n o v e r t r i a l s 1 t o n i s a g e o m e t r i c d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h p a r a m e t e r p . I n o r d e r t o c a l c u l a t e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a c e r t a i n o u t c o m e t y p e u n d e r t h i s r a n d o m p r o c e s s , one c a n t h e n s i m p l y a d d t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s f o r e a c h t r i a l o n w h i c h a c e r t a i n o u t c o m e t y p e o c c u r s . F o r e x a m p l e , i n T a b l e 5 . 1 , i f we w e r e t o c a l c u l a t e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y f o r o u t c o m e t y p e 2 t o o c c u r ( t h e r u n s m o d e l a l o n e ) u n d e r t h e p a r t i c u l a r symptom s e q u e n c e s h o w n , we n e e d o n l y t o a d d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a c h o i c e o c c u r r i n g o n t r i a l s 3 , 11 a n d a n y o t h e r f u r t h e r t r i a l s a t w h i c h a d e c i s i o n w o u l d i m p l y t h e r u n s m o d e l . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , t h i s s h o u l d be c a r r i e d o n f o r an i n f i n i t e number o f t r i a l s , b u t t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s become s o s m a l l a f t e r 20 o r s o t r i a l s t h a t t h e r e i s no a d v a n t a g e t o e x t e n d i n g t h e p r o c e s s . We w i l l a d o p t t h e p o l i c y o f c a l c u l a t i n g s u c h v a l u e s o n l y t o a t o t a l o f 50 t r i a l s . By t h a t t i m e t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f c h o i c e w e r e s m a l l e r t h a n . 0 0 0 5 f o r a l l " p a t i e n t s " . The v a l u e o f p c a n be e s t i m a t e d f r o m t h e mean number o f t r i a l s t o c r i t e r i o n f o r a p a r t i c u l a r p a t i e n t . In t h i s w a y , t h e a c t u a l d a t a a n d t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s u n d e r t h e g e o m e t r i c 98 d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e made s i m i l a r a n d we c a n make a r e a s o n a b l e j u d g e m e n t o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n e x p e c t e d a n d a c t u a l 65. f r e q u e n c i e s . T h e means a n d v a l u e s o f p f o r t h e l a s t f o u r " p a t i e n t s " a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 6.3. P r i m a r y A n a l y s i s T a b l e 6.4 shows t h e v a l u e s o f e x p e c t e d a n d a c t u a l f r e q u e n c i e s f o r e a c h o u t c o m e t y p e and f o r e a c h p a t i e n t p r e s e n t e d t o t h e s u b j e c t s . T h e s e w e r e c a l c u l a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g m a n n e r . U s i n g t h e v a l u e s o f p a s e s t i m a t e d f r o m t h e mean number o f t r i a l s t o c r i t e r i o n , t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f c h o i c e p r e -d i c t e d by t h e g e o m e t r i c d i s t r i b u t i o n w e r e g e n e r a t e d . F r o m t h i s d i s t r i b u t i o n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y f o r e a c h c h o i c e t y p e t o o c c u r was c a l c u l a t e d a n d u s e d a s a b a s i s f o r c a l c u l a t i n g t h e e x p e c t e d number o f p e r s o n s u n d e r t h e g e o m e t r i c d i s t r i b u t i o n . A m o r e d e t a i l e d e x a m p l e o f t h e way i n w h i c h t h i s was d o n e f o r p a t i e n t number 4 c a n be f o u n d i n A p p e n d i x D. I f we l o o k a t t h e f i r s t t h r e e c o l u m n s o f T a b l e 6.4 t h e f o l l o w i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n c a n be m a d e . F o r p a t i e n t 2, t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e was n e v e r u s e d b y s u b j e c t s i n m a k i n g t h e i r c h o i c e s . T h i s was b e c a u s e a t r i a l w h i c h i m p l i e s t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e n e v e r o c c u r s i n t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms f o r p a t i e n t 2. T h e f r e q u e n c y o f c h o i c e p r e d i c t e d b y t h e r a n d o m m o d e l r e f l e c t s t h i s . F o r p a t i e n t number 3, we c a n i n f e r t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e was u t i l i z e d 9 t i m e s o v e r t h e 35 s u b j e c t s . T h e r a n d o m m o d e l p r e d i c t s t h a t t h i s s h o u l d o c c u r 99 Table 6 . 3 Mean t r i a l s to diagnose and as s o c i a t e d values of p f o r p a t i e n t s 2 to 5 . (number of subjects = 35) P a t i e n t No. 2 3 4 5 Mean no. of t r i a l s 5 . 9 9 . 7 8 . 6 9 . 7 1 mean . 169 . 103 . 116 .103 T o t a l 8 . 5 Table 6 .4 A c t u a l f requencies fo r 4 types of outcomes and expected f requencies under the geometric d i s t r i b u t i o n (number of subjects = 35) P a t i e n t Outcome types Number 1. D i f f e r ence . model alone 2 . Runs model, alone 3 . D i f fe rence and/or . 4 . No runs model model Exp. A c t u a l Exp . A c t u a l Exp. A c t u a l Exp. A c t u a l 2 0 0 4 . 0 8 6 1 9 . 7 8 25 1 1 . 1 3 4 3 3 . 85 9 1 .88 5 4 . 3 0 5 2 4 . 9 8 16 4 5 . 5 9 14 3 . 1 7 4 5 . 1 0 3 2 1 . 1 3 14 5 3 . 8 3 12 1 . 8 8 5 4 . 3 2 2 2 4 . 9 8 16 T o t a l 1 3 . 2 7 35 1 1 . 01 20 3 3 . 5 0 35 8 2 . 2 2 50 T o t a l A c t u a l - T o t a l Exp 21 .73 8 . 9 9 1 .50 - 3 ; >.22 X ( c a l c u l a t e d on t o t a l s f o r columns) = 5 5 . 6 2 X 2 n , = 1 1 . 3 4 . 0 1 , 3d11-101. o n l y 3 . 8 5 t i m e s . S i m i l a r r e s u l t s a r e f o u n d f o r p a t i e n t s n u m b e r s 4 and 5 . I n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h e r a n d o m d i s t r i b u t i o n o v e r a l l p a t i e n t s , t h e a c t u a l d a t a show an i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f t i m e s t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e was u s e d ( 2 1 . 7 3 m o r e t i m e s ) . T h i s i s shown i n t h e b o t t o m row o f t h e t a b l e . We c a n c o n t i n u e t h i s p r o c e s s f o r e a c h o f t h e p a t i e n t s and e a c h o f t h e c h o i c e m o d e l t y p e s . B y c o m p a r i n g t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e v a r i o u s t y p e s a c c o u n t f o r more o r l e s s o f t h e d a t a t h a n t h e r a n d o m d i s t r i b u t i o n , we c a n e s t a b l i s h t h e r e l a t i v e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f e a c h o u t c o m e t y p e o v e r t h e r a n d o m d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h r o u g h t h i s c o m p a r i s o n , we c a n a l s o e s t a b l i s h t h e r e l a t i v e e x p l a n a t o r y power b e t w e e n o u t c o m e t y p e s ( c f . " T o t a l o f A c t u a l -T o t a l o f E x p e c t e d " r o w ) . T h e c h i s q u a r e m e a s u r e p r o v i d e s an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s we f i n d b e t w e e n t h e r a n d o m d i s t r i b u t i o n and t h e a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c h o i c e t y p e s a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . I f we l o o k a t t h e t o t a l f i g u r e f o r e a c h o f t h e f o u r , c h o i c e m o d e l s some r a t h e r s t r i k i n g p a t t e r n s a r e e v i d e n t . F o r t h e t y p e 4 o u t c o m e , we s e e t h a t t h e a c t u a l number o f t i m e s a s u b j e c t c h o s e a t a c h o i c e p o i n t s u g g e s t i n g no m o d e l was f a r b e l o w t h e e x p e c t e d number o f t i m e s u n d e r a r a n d o m c h o i c e a s s u m p -t i o n . T h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e and t h e r u n s m o d e l a l o n e w e r e b o t h a b o v e t h e e x p e c t e d number o f t i m e s p r e d i c t e d b y t h e r a n d o m c h o i c e a s s u m p t i o n . T h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l shows a g r e a t e r v a r i a t i o n f r o m t h e r a n d o m m o d e l , h o w e v e r , a c c o u n t i n g f o r a l m o s t t h r e e t i m e s a s many c h o i c e p o i n t s , w h e r e a s t h e r u n s m o d e l a c c o u n t s f o r o n l y a b o u t two t i m e s a s many p o i n t s o v e r t h e r a n d o m m o d e l . 102 T h e t y p e o f c h o i c e w h i c h may i n d i c a t e e i t h e r a r u n s o r d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e o u t c o m e p r e d i c t e d b y t h e r a n d o m m o d e l . On t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e r e s u l t s , t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i s c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d . C o n t r o l l i n g f o r t h e d i f f e r e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s w h i c h e a c h c h o i c e t y p e h a s ( t h r o u g h t h e r a n d o m d i s t r i b u t i o n ) we f i n d t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l makes t h e g r e a t e s t i m p r o v e m e n t i n p r e d i c t i o n o v e r t h a t r a n d o m d i s t r i b -u t i o n . A s a p r e d i c t i v e s t a t e m e n t , h o w e v e r , i t f a l l s r a t h e r s h o r t o f a p o w e r f u l c l a i m . O n l y 25% o f t h e c h o i c e s (35 o u t o f t h e p o s s i b l e 1 4 0 ) ^ * w e r e c l e a r l y made o n t h e b a s i s o f a d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l , and e v e n i f we a d d t o t h a t f i g u r e t h e number o f c h o i c e s made w h e r e t h e m o d e l may be a d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l ( i . e . , t y p e 3) i t s t i l l o n l y a c c o u n t s f o r 50% o f t h e c h o i c e s ( i . e . , 3 5 + 3 5 x 1 0 0 ) . 140 By t u r n i n g t o t h e s u b j e c t s ' r e s p o n s e s i n t h e i n t e r -v iews we m i g h t g e t some i d e a o f why t h e r e was a s i z e a b l e amount o f v a r i a t i o n i n t h e t h e o r e t i c a l and p r e d i c t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e r e s u l t s . The I n t e r v i e w s Upon c o m p l e t i n g t h e e x p e r i m e n t , e a c h s u b j e c t was a s k e d t o g i v e a n a c c o u n t o f t h e way i n w h i c h t h e c h o i c e s w e r e made ( c f . A p p e n d i x E ) . T h e u s u a l t y p e o f r e s p o n s e g i v e n t o t h i s q u e s t i o n was a r a t h e r v a g u e s t a t e m e n t s u c h a s : "I a s k e d f o r r e a d i n g s u n t i l I g o t more o f one t y p e t h a n t h e o t h e r . " 103 On p r o b i n g f o r what t h e y l o o k e d , t h e r e was a w i d e r a n g e o f a c c o u n t s . Some m e n t i o n e d t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f two h i g h s o r m o r e i n a r o w , some s p o k e o f t h e o v e r a l l p r e p o n d e r a n c e o f one t y p e o f r e a d i n g o v e r t h e o t h e r , and a number r e f e r r e d t o t h e c o n s i d -e r a t i o n o f b o t h o f t h e s e f a c t o r s i n t h e i r j u d g e m e n t . O f t e n , we f o u n d t h a t a s u b j e c t s a i d t h a t t h e c h o i c e was made n o t a t t h e p o i n t w h e r e he o r s h e made a d e c i s i o n , b u t a t r i a l o r two a f t e r t h a t " d e c i s i o n " was m a d e . S u c h b e h a v i o r w o u l d p r o b a b l y be a m a j o r s o u r c e o f e r r o r i n o u r m e t h o d i f we i d e n t i f i e d t h e s u b j e c t i v e a c c o u n t s o f a d e c i s i o n w i t h t h e r e a c h i n g o f a t h r e s h -o l d , s i n c e we h a d a s s u m e d t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s w o u l d make t h e i r c h o i c e a s s o o n a s one o r a n o t h e r o f t h e m o d e l s p r e d i c t e d a c h a n g e . S u c h a c c o u n t s w e r e somewhat m i s l e a d i n g , h o w e v e r , f o r i n g o i n g o v e r t h e a c t u a l c h o i c e s m a d e , s u b j e c t s o f t e n w o u l d i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e y h a d made up t h e i r m i n d s b u t t r i e d one m o r e r e a d i n g t o c h e c k . I f t h e n e x t t r i a l was c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e i r d e c i s i o n t h e y w o u l d m o s t l i k e l y c h o o s e . I f i t w e r e i n c o n s i s t e n t t h e y w o u l d go o n t o t h e n e x t t r i a l . A r e s p o n s e f r o m t h e m a c h i n e w h i c h was a t t h a t p o i n t c o n s i s t e n t w o u l d o f t e n p r o d u c e a r e s p o n s e i n s p i t e o f t h e f a c t t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n one t y p e o f symptom and t h e o t h e r h a d n o t c h a n g e d b e t w e e n t h e f i r s t a n d l a s t t r i a l o f t h a t s e q u e n c e . I n s u c h c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h e s u b j e c t o f t e n j u s t i f i e d t h e c h o i c e a t t h a t p o i n t b y comments s u c h a s " i t went b a c k t o what I t h o u g h t " . T h i s seemed t o be s u f f i c i e n t e v i d e n c e f o r a c h o i c e . C h o i c e s made o n t h i s b a s i s m i g h t be s e e n a s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e w h i c h P e t e r s o n a n d DuCharme d e a l w i t h i n t h e i r e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e " p r i m a r y e f f e c t " . 6 7 -104 T h i s f a c t o r was a p p a r e n t l y a l s o c o m p o u n d e d b y t h e p r e s s u r e f o r m a k i n g o n e ' s d e c i s i o n p r o m p t l y a s s p e c i f i e d b y t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n . A number o f s u b j e c t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y h a d h a d a h u n c h a b o u t t h e p r o p e r d i a g n o s i s , w e r e i n t h e m i d d l e o f c h e c k i n g t h i s o u t when t h e y g o t a s i n g l e p i e c e o f e v i d e n c e w h i c h c o n t r a d i c t e d t h e i r h u n c h . R a t h e r t h a n c o n t i n u e , t h e y s a i d , t h e y c h o s e t o d i a g n o s e t h e i r o r i g i n a l h u n c h , a l m o s t a s an a t t e m p t t o p r e v e n t t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f f u r t h e r d i s c o n f i r m i n g e v i d e n c e a n d p r o l o n g t h e p r o c e s s . A t h i r d a s p e c t w h i c h was o f t e n e x p r e s s e d was t h e p r o b l e m o f memory . Some s u b j e c t s a s k e d i f t h e y c o u l d w r i t e down t h e symptoms a s t h e y o c c u r r e d , b e c a u s e t h e y h a d f o r g o t t e n t h e s e q u e n c e . S i n c e we w e r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h i s e x p e r i m e n t i n s o f a r a s i t r e l a t e d t o i n t e r p e r s o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n , t h e y w e r e n o t p e r m i t t e d t o w r i t e them d o w n . T h i s was d o n e s i n c e m o s t i n t e r p e r s o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n d o e s n o t p e r m i t t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o f r e c o r d s a n d w o u l d t h e r e f o r e be s u b j e c t t o p r o b l e m s o f memory . We w e r e c o n c e r n e d t h a t t h e s e f e a t u r e s o f i n t e r a c t i o n b e m a i n -t a i n e d , a n d we h o p e d t h a t t h e u s e o f a n y p a r t i c u l a r c h o i c e m o d e l w o u l d s t i l l b e a p p a r e n t i n t h e d a t a . A l l o f t h e s e e f f e c t s may a c c o u n t f o r t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f v a r i a t i o n i n o u r r e s u l t s , a n d w o u l d h a v e t o be t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t s h o u l d one w a n t t o u s e t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l f o r p u r p o s e s o f p r e d i c t i o n o r s i m u l a t i o n . O u r s t r a t e g y t h e n , was t o u s e t h e comments o f t h e s u b j e c t s a s a g u i d e f o r r e f i n i n g o u r m o d e l . A s i t t u r n e d o u t , i t was p o s s i b l e t o e x a m i n e some e f f e c t s o f t h e t i m e p r e s s u r e a n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d s t r a t e g y o f d e l a y i n g t h e c h o i c e , b u t s i n c e t h e f a c t o r o f memory l o s s w o u l d r e q u i r e a 105 c h a n g e i n e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n , i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o e x a m i n e i t s e f f e c t a t t h i s t i m e . T h e T h i r d Mode o f A n a l y s i s I n o r d e r t o e x a m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f t i m e p r e s s u r e , t h e r e a r e a c o u p l e o f s t r a t e g i e s p o s s i b l e . T h e f i r s t w o u l d be t o a s s u m e t h a t a l l p e r s o n s u t i l i z e t h e d e l a y i n g s t r a t e g y f o r 1 o r 2 t r i a l s a f t e r t h e y h a v e made t h e i r d e c i s i o n , a n d t h a t t h e y a l l d o i t f o r t h e same number o f t r i a l s . T h i s i s a v e r y d e m a n d i n g a s s u m p t i o n . A n a n a l y s i s o f t h e d a t a r e v e a l e d i t was a l s o a v e r y p o o r o n e , f o r i t r e d u c e d t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e m o d e l s t o v i r t u a l l y n o t h i n g . T h e s e c o n d s t r a t e g y r e q u i r e s t h a t we assume t h a t one o f t h e m o d e l s d o e s o p e r a t e , b u t t h a t we h a v e b e e n t o o s e v e r e i n o u r c r i t e r i o n f o r t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h a t m o d e l . I f t h e r e w e r e no p r e s s u r e o n t h e s u b j e c t s t o make an e a r l y d i a g n o s i s , u n d e r t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l , we w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t t h e y w o u l d make t h e i r c h o i c e o n l y o n t h o s e t r i a l s i n 6 8 w h i c h t h e k v a l u e i n c r e a s e d f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e . " F o r e x a m p l e , i f we t u r n o n c e a g a i n t o o u r e x a m p l e i n T a b l e 5 . 1 we c a n s e e t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a l o n e i s i m p l i e d b y a d i a g n o s i s o n t r i a l 6 o n l y ( a t l e a s t up t o t h e 11 t r i a l s ) . T h i s i s i d e n t i f i e d b y t h e f a c t t h a t i t i s t h e f i r s t t i m e t h a t a k v a l u e o f 2 h a s o c c u r r e d ( c f . c o l u m n 3 ) . T h i s i s t h e b a s i s u p o n w h i c h o u r t e s t o f t h e m o d e l s was o r i g i n a l l y m a d e . A s we h a v e s e e n , t h i s e x p e c t a t i o n w i l l o n l y a c c o u n t f o r 50% o f t h e c h o i c e s m a d e . A s l i g h t l y w e a k e r p r e d i c t i o n , y e t one w h i c h i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h o u r m o d e l c a n be made i f we i n t r o d u c e t h e e f f e c t 106 o f p r e s s u r e f o r an e a r l y d i a g n o s i s . U n d e r t h i s p r e s s u r e p e r s o n s m i g h t be e x p e c t e d t o r e d u c e t h e t h r e s h o l d v a l u e , ( i . e . : t h e v a l u e o f k) w h i c h t h e y f i n d a c c e p t a b l e a s t i m e p a s s e s . T h u s we m i g h t e x p e c t t h a t a f t e r t h e f i r s t o c c u r r e n c e o f k = 2 , a s u b j e c t whose t h r e s h o l d h a s b e e n g r e a t e r t h a n 2 up t o t h a t p o i n t m i g h t r e d u c e h i s t h r e s h o l d t o k = 2 a n d make a c h o i c e o n t h e s e c o n d o c c u r r e n c e o f t h i s t h r e s h o l d . I n T a b l e 5 .1 t h i s w o u l d mean t h a t a d i a g n o s i s o n t r i a l 8 w o u l d i m p l y t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e d i f f e r -e n c e m o d e l , a s w e l l a s a d i a g n o s i s o n t r i a l 6 . I n g e n e r a l t h e n , t h i s w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t c h o i c e s made o n a n y i n c r e a s e i n k ( i d e n t i f i e d u n d e r some p a r t i c u l a r m o d e l ) m i g h t i n d i c a t e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h a t c h o i c e m o d e l . T h i s i s r e p r e s e n t e d u n d e r t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i n T a b l e 5 .1 b y d i a g n o s i s o n t r i a l s 1 , 3 , 5 , 6 , 8 , o r 1 1 . On e a c h o f t h e s e t r i a l s t h e r e h a s b e e n a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e k v a l u e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l . Our t h i r d s t r a t e g y f o r a n a l y s i s , t h e r e f o r e , c o n s i s t s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g p r o c e d u r e . We c a n i d e n t i f y t h e k v a l u e s f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e a n d t h e r u n s m o d e l b y l o o k i n g a t t h e s c h e d u l e o f symptoms f o r e a c h p a t i e n t ( c f . A p p e n d i x C a ) . T h e p r o c e d u r e i s d i r e c t l y a n a l a g o u s t o t h e p r o c e d u r e o u t l i n e d i n o u r s e c o n d mode o f a n a l y s i s . T h e o n l y d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t we c o n s i d e r a n y i n c r e a s e i n t h e v a l u e o f k f o r a p a r t i c u l a r m o d e l , a s s u p p o r t f o r t h a t m o d e l . U s i n g t h i s new c r i t e r i o n we f i n d t h a t 84% (118 o u t o f 140) o f t h e d i a g n o s e s w e r e made o n t r i a l s i n w h i c h t h e r e was an i n c r e a s e o f k u n d e r t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l . A s a b a s i s f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h i s v a l u e , we c a n c o m p a r e i t w i t h t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f c h o i c e s a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e r u n s m o d e l . F o r t h e f i r s t t i m e o c c u r r e n c e s , t h e 107 r u n s m o d e l c a n be u s e d t o a c c o u n t f o r 35% o f t h e t o t a l d i a g n o s i s . F o r a n y i n c r e a s e i n k ( i d e n t i f i e d u n d e r t h e r u n s m o d e l ) i t c a n be u s e d t o a c c o u n t f o r 66% o f t h e t o t a l d i a g n o s e s (92 o u t o f 1 4 0 ) . T h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i s s t i l l s u p e r i o r . S i n c e t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l c a n be u s e d t o a c c o u n t f o r a l l b u t 16% o f t h e d i a g n o s e s , we a r e now f a c e d w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r t h e u n e x p l a i n e d d i a g n o s e s a r e t o be c o n s i d e r e d a s e r r o r o r w h e t h e r t h e y a r e a l s o t o be i n t e g r a t e d i n t o o u r c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k . A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e r e s p o n s e s t o t h e p o s t e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r v i e w r e v e a l s v e r y l i t t l e r e g a r d i n g d i f f e r e n t s t r a t e g i e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h o s e p e r s o n s who were , i n 16%. T h e r e a r e some i n d i c a t i o n s o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s , b u t t h e y a r e e i t h e r t o o s p a r s e o r e l s e t h e y a r e u n c o n n e c t e d t o a n y 69 v t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . S h i f t s i n M o d e l s U s e d Up t o now we h a v e c o n c e n t r a t e d o n t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f c h o i c e m o d e l s u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t p e r s o n s d o n o t s h i f t t h e m o d e l s o v e r t i m e o r f o r d i f f e r e n t s e t s o f p r o b l e m s . S i n c e we h a v e n o t s p e c i f i e d a n y t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s f o r d e c i d i n g w h a t t y p e s o f s h i f t s m i g h t be e x p e c t e d , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o p r o c e e d o n a n a d h o c b a s i s f o r e x p l o r i n g t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y . T h e f i r s t p o s s i b i l i t y we m i g h t e x a m i n e i s t h a t p e r s o n s s h i f t f r o m one m o d e l t o t h e o t h e r o n l y o n c e a n d t h a t t h i s i s l i n k e d t o t h e l e n g t h o f t i m e i n i n t e r a c t i o n . I f , f o r e x a m p l e , a d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i s b e i n g u s e d a n d t h e t h r e s h o l d i s n o t r e a c h e d , o n e m i g h t s h i f t i n t h e m o d e l s u s e d i n o r d e r t o 108 f i n d a s o l u t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m . T h i s r e a s o n i n g w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t we c o m p a r e t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e m o d e l s b e t w e e n t h e b e g i n n i n g a n d t h e e n d o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s e q u e n c e s . T h i s was a c c o m p l i s h e d b y d i v i d i n g t h e t r i a l s b y p a t i e n t number i n s u c h a way a s t o k e e p t h e number o f s u b j e c t s a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u a l f o r e a c h h a l f o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n . F o r e a c h h a l f , t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f e a c h m o d e l was c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g o u r s e c o n d mode o f a n a l y s i s ( i . e . , l o o k i n g a t t h e f i r s t i n c r e a s e i n a k v a l u e ) . T h e r e s u l t s f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 6.5. By c o m p a r i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n s f o r t h e f i r s t a n d s e c o n d h a l f o f t h e t r i a l s u n d e r e a c h t y p e o f m o d e l , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o s e e i f t h e r e a r e a n y d i f f e r e n c e s o v e r t r i a l s . I n a d d i t i o n , b y c o m p a r i n g t h e p r o p -o r t i o n s a c r o s s t h e c o l u m n s , we c a n c o m p a r e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s w h i c h m i g h t e x i s t b e t w e e n t h e d i f f e r e n c e o r r u n s m o d e l s . T h e r e i s one r a t h e r s t r i k i n g r e s u l t shown i n t h i s t a b l e . F o r p a t i e n t 2, t h e r e i s v i r t u a l l y n o d i f f e r e n c e i n p r e d i c t a b i l i t y b e t w e e n t h e two m o d e l s w i t h i n t h e f i r s t a n d t h e s e c o n d s e c t i o n s o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s . F o r p a t i e n t 4, t h e two m o d e l s a r e t h e same f o r t h e f i r s t h a l f , b u t t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i s s u p e r i o r f o r t h e s e c o n d h a l f . F o r t h e p a t i e n t s 3 and 5, t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i s o n l y s u p e r i o r f o r t h e s e c o n d h a l f o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n , a n d i n t h e f i r s t h a l f t h e r u n s m o d e l i s a s u p e r i o r p r e d i c t o r o f t r i a l s o f d i a g n o s i s . I n g e n e r a l t h e n , t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a p p e a r s t o be s u p e r i o r i n t h e l a t t e r p a r t s o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n , a n d u n d e r c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s , t h e r u n s m o d e l i s s u p e r i o r d u r i n g t h e e a r l y p a r t s o f an i n t e r a c t i o n 109 s e q u e n c e . I f we l o o k a t t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms f o r t h e v a r i o u s p a t i e n t s , we c a n s e e w h a t c o n d i t i o n s m i g h t p r o d u c e t h e s e r e s u l t s ( c f . A p p e n d i x C a ) . T h e s c h e d u l e o f symptoms f o r p a t i e n t s 3 a n d 5 a r e s i m p l y r e v e r s e d i n v a l u e ( i . e . , h i g h b l o o d p r e s s u r e f o r l o w and v i c e v e r s a ) . T h i s w o u l d a c c o u n t f o r t h e s i m i l a r i t y o f r e s u l t s f o r t h e s e t w o - p a t i e n t s e q u e n c e s . T h e r e i s an a d d i t i o n a l a s p e c t o f t h e s e t w o - p a t i e n t s e q u e n c e s w h i c h s e p a r a t e s them f r o m t h e s e q u e n c e s f o r p a t i e n t s 2 a n d 4 . Up t o t h e s i x t h t r i a l f o r p a t i e n t s 3 a n d 5 t h e two t y p e s o f symptoms a r e s i m p l y a l t e r n a t e d . T h i s w o u l d p r o d u c e a l o n g s e q u e n c e i n w h i c h t h e r e i s no b i a s f o r o n e d i s e a s e o r t h e o t h e r f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f t h e s u b j e c t . On t h e s e v e n t h t r i a l t h e r e i s a r e p e t i t i o n o f a symptom ( i . e . , a r u n w i t h k = 2 ) . S e v e r a l o f t h e d i a g n o s e s w e r e made a t t h a t p o i n t . F o r p a t i e n t s 2 and 4 , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e f i r s t r u n w i t h k = 2 o c c u r s o n t r i a l 3 . The number o f d i a g n o s e s a t t h i s p o i n t i s n o t a s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y h i g h . I t a p p e a r s f r o m t h e s e r e s u l t s t h a t t h e l o n g s e q u e n c e o f a l t e r n a t i n g symptoms i s a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n p r o d u c i n g t h e u s e o f t h e r u n s m o d e l f o r c h o i c e . T h e r e a r e two p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h i s p h e n o m e n o n . F i r s t , i t may be t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s c h a n g e t h e i r m o d e l o f c h o i c e s i m p l y b e c a u s e t h e f i r s t m o d e l d o e s n o t " p e r m i t " a d i a g n o s i s t o be m a d e . T h i s e x p l a n a t i o n a s s u m e s t h a t t h e r e i s a p r i o r i t y i n c h o i c e m o d e l s ( t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l b e i n g f a v o r e d ) a n d t h a t o n l y when t h e c o s t s a r e h i g h ( i . e . , a d i a g n o s i s i s d e l a y e d ) w i l l t h e l e s s p r e f e r a b l e m o d e l be u t i l i z e d . A s e c o n d e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h a t t h e s u b j e c t s l o s e t r a c k o f t h e 110 T a b l e 6 . 5 P r o p o r t i o n o f t r i a l s t o d e c i s i o n w h i c h w e r e a c c u r a t e l y p r e d i c t e d by d i f f e r e n c e and r u n s m o d e l , f o r two h a l v e s o f s e q u e n c e * ( P r o p o r t i o n s r e p r e s e n t t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c h o i c e s i n e a c h c e l l w h i c h a r e a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e m o d e l a l o n e ) P a t i e n t 2 P a t i e n t 3 P a t i e n t 4 P a t i e n t 5 d i f f r u n s d i f f r u n s d i f f r u n s d i f f r u n s m o d e l m o d e l m o d e l m o d e l m o d e l m o d e l m o d e l m o d e l F i r s t h a l f . 50 . 40 .06 . 3 5 . 35 . 3 5 . 06 . 3 3 (20) (20) (17) (17) (17) (17) (18) (18) S e c o n d h a l f 1 .0 • 1 .0 .72 .22 .61 . 17 .71 . 0 5 (15) (15) (18) (18) (18) (18) (17) (17) * t r i a l s t o d e c i s i o n i d e n t i f i e d b y f i r s t i n c r e a s e i n k v a l u e s . T o t a l number o f s u b j e c t s i n p a r e n t h e s e s I l l d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e two t y p e s o f symptoms o v e r t h e a l t e r -n a t i n g s e q u e n c e . R a t h e r t h a n make a g u e s s a t w h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e m i g h t b e , t h e y s w i t c h t o u s e t h e r u n s m o d e l w h i c h r e q u i r e s o n l y t h a t t h e y k e e p t r a c k o f t h e e v e n t s s i n c e t h e l a s t c h a n g e i n symptom t y p e . I n t h e p o s t e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r v i e w s t h r e e o f t h e s e v e n p e r s o n s i n v o l v e d i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f c h o i c e i n d i c -a t e d t h a t t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r a n e a r l y d i a g n o s i s p u s h e d them t o make a c h o i c e a t t h e f i r s t o c c u r r e n c e o f a c h a n g e f r o m t h e a l t e r n a t i o n o f s y m p t o m s . T h i s w o u l d s u g g e s t some s u p p o r t f o r t h e f i r s t e x p l a n a t i o n . F o r t h e o t h e r s u b j e c t s i n v o l v e d , t h e r e was no c l e a r i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e p r o c e s s t h e y u t i l i z e d . T h e s e s u g g e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g s h i f t s i n m o d e l s u s e d m u s t n e c e s s a r i l y be t e n t a t i v e f o r two r e a s o n s . F i r s t o f a l l , t h e number o f c h o i c e s i n v o l v e d i s v e r y s m a l l (10 o u t o f a p o s s i b l e 1 4 0 ) . T h e r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s p r i m a r i l y t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n : t h a t i s , we w e r e s i m p l y n o t f o c u s s i n g o n t h i s p r o b l e m . S e c o n d , s i n c e a f u l l a n a l y s i s o f t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e a n d r u n s m o d e l a l o n e h a s n o t b e e n c o m p l e t e d , i t i s s t i l l p o s s i b l e t h a t s u c h a n a n a l y s i s may a l l o w a s i m p l e r a c c o u n t o f t h e r e s u l t s shown i n T a b l e 6 . 5 . 112 CHAPTER 7 - CONCLUSIONS We h a v e now come t o t h e p o i n t w h e r e we m u s t t r y t o p u t t h i s s p e c i f i c p i e c e o f r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e m o r e g e n e r a l c o n t e x t o f o u r c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k . T h i s w i l l be d o n e w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o two m a j o r a r e a s : t h o s e t h a t r e l a t e t o t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h u n d e r t a k e n , a n d t h o s e t h a t d e a l w i t h t h e more g e n e r a l c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k . R e s e a r c h C o n c l u s i o n s O u r r e s e a r c h was u n d e r t a k e n i n o r d e r t o e x a m i n e t h e t h e o r e t i c a l r e a s o n a b l e n e s s o f two m o d e l s o f c h o i c e f o r IN r e l a t i o n s . On t h e b a s i s o f p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h we h a d a s s u m e d t h a t a b e s t g u e s s f o r c h a n g e s i n r e l a t i o n s w o u l d b e a t h r e s h o l d -i n g t y p e d f m e c h a n i s m , a n d t h e m o d e l s o f c h o i c e c o n s i d e r e d w e r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h a t t y p e o f m e c h a n i s m . F r o m t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e r e s u l t s seem p r o m i s i n g . T h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l o f c h o i c e seems t o a c c o u n t f o r m o r e d a t a t h a n t h e r u n s m o d e l i n s p i t e o f t h e e f f e c t s o f s u b j e c t s ' d e l a y s i n r e s p o n s e , t h e p r e s s u r e s o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n , and v a r i a t i o n s i n m e m o r y . One a l t e r n a t i v e , t h e n , w o u l d b e t o b e g i n a n e x p l o r -a t i o n o f t h e s e e f f e c t s t o s e e how much o f t h e c h o i c e p r o c e s s t h e y do i n f a c t a l t e r . I f t h e y a c c o u n t f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f t h e v a r i a t i o n f r o m t h e e f f e c t o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l , o u r c o n f i d e n c e i n o u r c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f i n t e r a c t i o n w o u l d be g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d . A t t h e same t i m e , we m i g h t be a b l e t o 113 i m p r o v e t h e p r e d i c t i v e power o f o u r m o d e l . T h i s s t r a t e g y w o u l d r e q u i r e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f new e x p e r i m e n t s w h i c h a r e s i m i l a r t o t h e one r e p o r t e d i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n , b u t w i t h v a r i a t i o n s i n some o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h m i g h t i n t r o d u c e e r r o r . F r o m t h e r e s e a r c h t o t h i s p o i n t , two o f t h e s e f a c t o r s seem t o b e m o s t c r i t i c a l . One o f t h e s e f a c t o r s i s t h e p r e s s u r e w h i c h we c r e a t e f o r an a c c u r a t e v e r s u s an e a r l y d i a g n o s i s . T h r o u g h a s s u m p t i o n s 4 and 5, t h e m a n i p u l a t i o n o f t h e s e f a c t o r s a l l o w s e x p e r i m e n t a l c o n t r o l o v e r t h e t h r e s h o l d v a l u e s w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t s h o l d . I n o u r s e t o f e x p e r i m e n t s , t h e v a l u e o f k was k e p t v e r y l o w a n d i t may h a v e h a d t h e d i s a d v a n t a g e o f p r o d u c i n g a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f c h o i c e s a t t h e s e c o n d o c c u r r e n c e o f t h e k v a l u e s . A t p r e s e n t , t h e s e c h o i c e s d r a s t i c a l l y r e d u c e t h e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y o f t h e c h o i c e m o d e l , a n d a t t h e same t i m e t h e y d o n o t c l a r i f y t h e r e a s o n a b l e n e s s o f t h e c h o i c e m o d e l i t s e l f . T h u s t h e y p r e v e n t u s f r o m c o n f i d e n t l y m a k i n g a c l a i m f o r o r a g a i n s t t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s u s e d . T o do s o w o u l d r e q u i r e a v a r i a t i o n i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n . F o r e x a m p l e , i f we r e l a x e d t h e p r e s s u r e f o r a n e a r l y c h o i c e a n d i n c r e a s e d t h e demand f o r a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s e s , we w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f n o n - i n f o r m a t i v e c h o i c e s w o u l d d r o p , p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t h o s e p o i n t s w h e r e t h e k v a l u e i s low . - S h o u l d we f i n d t h a t we h a v e j u s t a s many c h o i c e s made a t t h e s e c o n d o r t h i r d o c c u r r e n c e o f a p a r t i c u l a r k v a l u e , we m u s t a b a n d o n o u r a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s p r o p o s e d a r e r e a s o n a b l e . T h e s e c o n d f a t o r w h i c h a p p e a r s t o i n t r o d u c e some e r r o r i n t o t h e c h o i c e p r o c e s s i s t h e i n f l u e n c e o f memory . I t 114 i s p o s s i b l e t h a t some o f t h e v a r i a t i o n f r o m t h e c h o i c e m o d e l s i s d u e t o t h e f a c t t h a t s u b j e c t s l o s t t r a c k o f t h e s e q u e n c e o f a c t s . I n s p i t e o f t h e i r u t i l i z a t i o n o f one o r t h e o t h e r c h o i c e m o d e l s t h e n , t h e y w o u l d make d i a g n o s e s a t p o i n t s o t h e r t h a n t h o s e p r e d i c t e d b y t h e m o d e l s . One o t h e r r e s u l t o f memory l o s s w h i c h we h a v e a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d i s t h e s h i f t i n g o f c h o i c e m o d e l s f r o m t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l ( w h i c h r e q u i r e s c o n s t a n t m o n i t o r i n g ) t o t h e r u n s m o d e l ( w h i c h a l l o w s one t o b e g i n m o n i t o r i n g t h e a c t s a t a n y p o i n t ) . Two s t r a t e g i e s f o r d e a l i n g w i t h t h e e f f e c t o f memory a r e p o s s i b l e . By p r o v i d i n g a c o n t i n u a l a c c o u n t o f t h e r e a d i n g s t o t h e s u b j e c t i t w o u l d be p o s s i b l e t o r e d u c e some o f t h e e r r o r s d u e t o memory v a r i a t i o n s . H o w e v e r , by d o i n g s o , we w i l l r e d u c e t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h i t m i g h t m a t c h more " n a t u r a l " i n t e r a c t i o n s i t u a t i o n s . T h i s w o u l d n o t be s u c h a c r u c i a l f a c t o r i f we w e r e t o u t i l i z e t h i s s t r a t e g y t o e x a m i n e t h e p o s s i b l e s h i f t o f m o d e l s due t o memory l o s s . F o r e x a m p l e , i f we g i v e a s u b j e c t a l o n g s e q u e n c e o f a l t e r n a t i n g symptoms a n d p r o v i d e h i m w i t h an i n v e n t o r y o f t h e symptoms a s t h e y o c c u r , he w o u l d be l e s s l i k e l y t o u t i l i z e t h e r u n s m o d e l , i f t h e memory l o s s e x p l a n a t i o n was c o r r e c t . A n a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n t o t h e g e n e r a l p r o b l e m o f memory e f f e c t s m i g h t be t o i n t e g r a t e i n t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e m o d e l a f u n c t i o n t o a c c o u n t f o r v a r i a t i o n d u e t o memory . T h e s u c c e s s o f t h i s s t r a t e g y w i l l d e p e n d , o f c o u r s e , o n t h e l e v e l o f t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t w h i c h t h e o r i e s o f memory h a v e a c h i e v e d . B o t h s t r a t e g i e s r e f l e c t o u r c o n c e r n w i t h t h e c o n t r o l o f memory i n f l u e n c e o n s e q u e n t i a l c h o i c e r a t h e r t h a n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e o r y r e g a r d i n g t h e f u n c t i o n i n g o f memory . T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t 115 w i t h o u r p r i m a r y c o n c e r n w i t h i n t e r a c t i o n . In b o t h c a s e s w h e r e we p r o p o s e c h a n g e s i n t h e e x p e r -i m e n t a l d e s i g n , o u r c o n c e r n i s w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a t h e o r y o f i n t e r a c t i o n a n d n o t p r i m a r i l y w i t h s i m u l a t i o n o f i n t e r a c t i o n . By i n t r o d u c i n g i n f l u e n c e s o n t h e v a l u e o f k a n d b y e x p e r i m e n t a l l y c o n t r o l l i n g f o r t h e e f f e c t s o f memory , we d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y make t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n more " n a t u r a l " , b u t we d o p r o v i d e a more s e v e r e t e s t o f t h e t h e o r y . A t one p o i n t i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l -i z a t i o n o f i n t e r a c t i o n , we h a d h o p e d t h a t we m i g h t a l s o u s e s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r t h e o r e t i c a l e l a b o r a t i o n . T h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r u s i n g t h i s t e c h n i q u e a r e g r e a t l y u n d e r m i n e d b y t h e p r e d i c t i v e w e a k n e s s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l i n o u r r e s e a r c h . U n d e r t h i s m o d e l a l o n e o n l y a b o u t 50% o f t h e d a t a seem t o be a c c o u n t e d f o r , w h i c h l e a v e s t h e l a r g e s t p e r c e n t a g e a t t r i b u t a b l e o n l y t o unknown f a c t o r s . I f we s h o u l d a d o p t t h e s t r a t e g y o f e l a b o r a t i n g t h e f a c t o r s m e n t i o n e d a b o v e i n o u r d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e o r e t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t , i t m i g h t be t h a t t h e p r e d i c t i v e u t i l i t y o f t h e m o d e l m i g h t a l s o be i n c r e a s e d . A t p r e s e n t , i f we know t h e t h r e s h o l d v a l u e w h i c h a p e r s o n m i g h t h a v e f o r a n y one p a t i e n t , we c a n p r e d i c t h i s e x a c t t r i a l o f c h o i c e o n l y 50% o f t h e t i m e . E v e n i f we r e l a x o u r demand f o r t h e e x a c t t r i a l o f c h o i c e a n d i n c l u d e a l l t h o s e o f a p a r t i c u l a r k v a l u e t h e a c c u r a c y o f o u r p r e d i c t i o n w i l l o n l y be 84%. ( F o r e x a m p l e , f o r k = 1 , we c a n p r e d i c t w i t h 84% a c c u r a c y t h a t t h e c h o i c e w i l l be made o n t r i a l s 1 , 3 o r 5 f o r p a t i e n t 2 ) . T h e r e i s some c h a n c e t h a t t h e s e p r e d i c t i o n s m i g h t b e i m p r o v e d i f we a t t e m p t e d t o i n t e g r a t e t h e v a r i a t i o n s we h a v e f o u n d . 11.6 T h e f i r s t t h i n g t o d e a l w i t h w o u l d be t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e v a l u e o f k . O r i g i n a l l y we h a d a s s u m e d t h a t t h e k v a l u e s w o u l d b e c o n s t a n t f o r e a c h s u b j e c t , b u t i t s o o n became a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e r e was some v a r i a t i o n . A p r e l i m i n a r y e x a m -i n a t i o n o f t h e s e v a l u e s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e y a r e g e n e r a l l y . r e s t r i c t e d , w i t h t h e mode b e i n g a r a n g e o f 1 v a l u e o v e r t h e f o u r p a t i e n t s w i t h w h i c h a s u b j e c t d e a l s , ( c f . T a b l e 7.;.1) . T h i s w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t e s t i m a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s f o r t h e v a l u e o f k w o u l d be r e a s o n a b l y u s e f u l s i n c e t h e v a l u e s a r e s t a b l e w i t h i n a l i m i t e d r a n g e . V a l u e s o f k f o r one p e r s o n a t o n e p o i n t i n t i m e c o u l d t h e n be u s e d t o e s t i m a t e f u t u r e v a l u e s w i t h c o n s i d -e r a b l e a c c u r a c y . T h e s e c o n d i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s u g g e s t e d b y o u r e x p e r -i m e n t s w o u l d b e t h e i n f l u e n c e o f p r e s s u r e t o c h o o s e a s t h e number o f t r i a l s i n c r e a s e s . . I n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l t h i s w o u l d s u g g e s t t h e i n c l u s i o n o f an i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t b e t w e e n t i m e and t h e v a l u e o f k . I f we a s s u m e t h a t e a c h i n d i v -i d u a l i s d i f f e r e n t i a l l y i n f l u e n c e d b y t h e p r e s s u r e t o c h o o s e q u i c k l y , t h i s m i g h t a c c o u n t f o r t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l c h o i c e s a f t e r t h e f i r s t o c c u r r e n c e o f a n i n c r e a s e i n k v a l u e s . B o t h o f t h e s e f a c t o r s m i g h t be a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a p r e d i c t i o n e q u a t i o n u s i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r t h e v a l u e o f k a n d t h e p r e s s u r e o f t i m e . T h e l i k e l i h o o d o f a c h o i c e b e i n g made a t a p a r t i c u l a r t r i a l t h e n , w o u l d be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e k v a l u e a t t h a t t r i a l and 7 1 . t h e number o f t h e t r i a l . C o n c e p t u a l F r a m e w o r k and C o n c l u s i o n s A n a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g y f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h m u s t 117 T a b l e 7 . 1 Range o f k V a l u e s u n d e r D i f f e r e n c e M o d e l maximum p o s s i b l e r a n g e = 7 R a n g e N o . o f p e r s o n s 0 4 1 18 2 8 3 4 5 1 T o t a l 35 118 a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d , h o w e v e r , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e o u r o r i g i n a l c o n -c e r n was w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k r e g a r d i n g i n t e r a c t i o n a n d n o t an a c c o u n t o f c h o i c e b e h a v i o r a l o n e . T h e e x p e r i m e n t r e p o r t e d h e r e r e p r e s e n t s o n l y a s m a l l p o r t i o n o f o u r g e n e r a l c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n . We h a d c o n s i d e r e d t h i s r e s e a r c h a s t h e f i r s t s t e p i n t h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e ways i n w h i c h f e e d b a c k a f f e c t s IN a n d OUT r e l a t i o n s . S i n c e we h a v e d e a l t o n l y w i t h c h a n g e s i n IN r e l a t i o n s o u r s t r a t e g y w o u l d b e t o now p r o c e e d t o a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f c h a n g e s i n OUT r e l a t i o n s . T o do s o we w o u l d h a v e t o make t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i a t i o n i n t h e r e s e a r c h was t h e r e s u l t o f t h e f a c t o r s t h a t we h a v e m e n t i o n e d , o r a t l e a s t o t h e r s w h i c h m e r e l y mask t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l a n d w e r e n o t s i g n s t h a t a f u n d a m e n t a l l y d i f f e r e n t t y p e o f p r o c e s s was o p e r a t i n g . To a d o p t t h i s s t r a t e g y w o u l d mean t h a t we w o u l d h a v e t o s e t t l e for a much w e a k e r t e s t o f t h e f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n t h e OUT r e l a t i o n t h a n i f we h a d more p r e c i s e c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e IN r e l a t i o n . I f we h a d a c l e a r i d e a o f how i t was t h a t t h e IN r e l a t i o n c h a n g e d , t h e n we w o u l d be a b l e t o e x p e r i m e n t a l l y s e p a r a t e t h e i n f l u e n c e on a c h o i c e o f t h e two r e l a t i o n s . A s i t now s t a n d s , i f we w e r e t o assume t h a t t h e IN r e l a t i o n o p e r a t e s u n d e r t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l , f o r e x a m p l e , we w o u l d h a v e t o a s s u m e t h a t t h e v a r i a t i o n f r o m t h a t m o d e l w h i c h we f o u n d i n t h e d a t a was d u e t o t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s . One f u r t h e r a r e a w h i c h r e q u i r e s e l a b o r a t i o n i s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n o u r c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f t h e c h o i c e p r o c e s s i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n , a n d o t h e r t y p e s o f s i t u a t i o n s . We 119 h a v e , i n g e n e r a l , made t h e c a s e t h a t m o s t i n t e r a c t i o n s i t u a t i o n s c a n b e c o n c e p t u a l i z e d a s c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n s w i t h s e q u e n t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n . Up t o now, we h a v e f o c u s s e d m o s t l y o n t h e d e v e l -opment o f an e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s i g n w h i c h i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h a t v i e w , a n d h a v e n e g l e c t e d t h e a l t e r n a t e s t r a t e g y o f e l a b o r a t i n g . t h e way i n w h i c h i t m i g h t r e l a t e t o s i t u a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s n o t s e q u e n t i a l . By d o i n g s o , we w i l l t h e n be i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o t e s t t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f o u r c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n . O u r t h e o r e t i c a l c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n a s i t now s t a n d s i s l i m i t e d i n t h a t we h a v e o n l y t e s t e d a v e r y m i n o r p a r t o f t h e t o t a l s t r u c t u r e . I n a d d i t i o n we h a v e d e a l t o n l y w i t h a s i t u a t i o n i n w h i c h c o o p e r a t i o n i s d e s i r e d b y b o t h p e r s o n s , w h e r e o n l y o n e i n t e r a c t a n t i s m a k i n g c h o i c e s , and w h e r e t h e i n f o r m a t i o n he r e c e i v e s i s s i m p l e and c o n s t r a i n e d . E a c h o f t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s k e e p s u s a l o n g way f r o m t h e t y p e o f s i t u a t i o n w h i c h we h o p e e v e n t u a l l y t o a c c o u n t f o r . T h e c h o i c e o f one o r more o f t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s o v e r t h e o t h e r w i l l be made o n l y a f t e r a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h we h a v e o u t l i n e d a s p o s s i b l e i n f l u e n c e s o n t h e c e n t r a l i t y o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e m o d e l . T h i s i n c l u d e s t h e i n f l u e n c e o f memory , p r e s s u r e f o r e a r l y d i a g n o s i s , and t h e m i x i n g o f c h o i c e m o d e l s . I f i t l o o k s a s t h o u g h a more d e t a i l e d e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s e f a c t o r s w i l l n o t t a k e u s t o o f a r f r o m o u r c e n t r a l c o n c e r n w i t h i n t e r a c t i o n , we w i l l e x p l o r e t h e s e f a c t o r s w i t h t h e h o p e t h a t we m i g h t be a b l e t o a c c o u n t f o r more o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e r e s u l t s . H o w e v e r , i f i t l o o k s a s t h o u g h a m o r e t h o r o u g h e x a m -i n a t i o n o f t h e c o n t i n g e n c i e s o n t h e r e s e a r c h w i l l l e a d t o a movement away f r o m o u r c e n t r a l c o n c e r n w i t h i n t e r a c t i o n , we 120 w i l l m o s t l i k e l y a d o p t t h e s e c o n d o f t h e two s t r a t e g i e s and move t o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e p r o c e s s o f c h a n g e s i n OUT r e l a t i o n s . T h e a d o p t i o n o f s u c h a s t r a t e g y w o u l d mean t h a t we w o u l d n o t u s e some o f t h e m o r e p o w e r f u l t e c h n i q u e s o f t h e o r e t i c a l e x p l o r a t i o n s u c h a s s i m u l a t i o n . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y due t o t h e l a c k o f s t r o n g p r e d i c t i v e power o f o u r o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f t h e i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o c e s s . One f u r t h e r comment m i g h t b e made r e g a r d i n g t h e g e n e r a l s t r a t e g y f o r c o n c e p t u a l d e v e l o p m e n t w h i c h we h a v e u s e d . T h r o u g h o u t t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n we h a v e d e v e l o p e d a n d u t i l i z e d a r a t h e r l o o s e l y f o r m u l a t e d c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k i n a number o f w a y s . F i r s t o f a l l i t h a s p r o v i d e d a c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f i n t e r a c t i o n w h i c h e m p h a s i s e s p a r t i c u l a r f a c t o r s w h i c h we f e l t w e r e i m p o r t a n t . T h e s e f a c t o r s i n c l u d e s u c h t h i n g s a s t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e o f p e r s o n s i n i n t e r a c t i o n , t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s i n a c t i o n a n d t h e s e q u e n t i a l b e h a v i o r w h i c h i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f i n t e r a c t i o n . S e c o n d , i t h a s p r o v i d e d a f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p a r t i c u l a r r e s e a r c h p r o b l e m s . T h i s a l l o w s p r o b l e m s t o be i d e n t i f i e d f o r r e s e a r c h and i t a l s o p e r m i t s one t o be a b l e t o s p e c i f y t h e way i n w h i c h s e p a r a t e r e s e a r c h i s s u e s m i g h t be r e l a t e d . E v e n i n an i m p r e c i s e f o r m s u c h a c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k c a n g e n e r a t e r e s e a r c h w h i c h i n t u r n , h a s t h e e f f e c t o f m a k i n g t h e f r a m e w o r k more p r e c i s e . T h i s was t h e e x p e c t a t i o n w i t h w h i c h o u r r e s e a r c h s t r a t e g y was c h o s e n . I w i l l t a k e some t i m e b e f o r e i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e v a l u a t e t h e r e a s o n a b l e n e s s o f t h a t e x p e c t a t i o n . 121 FOOTNOTES 1 . G o f f m a n , E . , E n c o u n t e r s ; Two S t u d i e s i n t h e S o c i o l o g y o f I n t e r -a c t i o n , I n d i a n a p o l i s , T h e B o b b s - M e r r i l l C o . , 1 9 6 1 , p . 7 . 2 . G o f f m a n , E . , I n t e r a c t i o n R i t u a l , New Y o r k , D o u b l e d a y , 1 9 6 7 , p . 2 . 3 . G e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e t h e o r y o f games may be f o u n d i n : L u c e , . R . D . a n d H . R a i f f a , Games a n d D e c i s i o n s , J o h n W i l e y . .<1 and S o n s , 1957 . R a p a p o r t , A . , F i g h t s , Games and D e b a t e s , U . o f M i c h i g a n P r e s s , 1 9 6 0 . S h u b i k , M. ( e d . ) , Game T h e o r y and R e l a t e d A p p r o a c h e s t o S o c i a l  B e h a v i o r , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s , 1 9 6 4 . 4 . A t k i n s o n , R . C . a n d P . S u p p e s , " A n a n a l y s i s o f t w o - p e r s o n game s i t u a t i o n s i n t e r m s o f s t a t i s t i c a l l e a r n i n g t h e o r y " , J . o f E x p t l . P s y c h . , 5 5 , 1 : 9 5 8 , 3 6 9 - 7 8 . B u r k e , C . J . , " A p p l i c a t i o n s o f a l i n e a r m o d e l t o t w o - p e r s o n i n t e r a c t i o n s " , C h a p t e r 9 i n B u s h , R . R . a n d W . K . E s t e s ( e d s ) , S t u d i e s i n M a t h e m a t i c a l L e a r n i n g T h e o r y , S t a n f o r d , S t a n f o r d U . P r e s s , 19.59. E s t e s , W . K . " O f M o d e l s a n d M e n " , A m e r . P s y c h o l . , 1 2 , 1 9 5 7 , 6 0 9 - 1 7 . F l o o d , M . M . , " A s t o c h a s t i c m o d e l f o r s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n " , T r a n s . N . Y . A c a d . S c i . , 1 6 , 1 9 5 4 , 2 0 2 - 5 . F l o o d , M . M . , " G a m e - l e a r n i n g t h e o r y a n d some d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g e x p e r i m e n t s " , C h a p t e r 10 i n T h r a l l , R . M . , C H . Coombs a n d R . L . D a v i s ( e d s ) , Dec i s i o n P r o c e s s e s , N . Y . , W i l e y , 1954 S u p p e s , P . a n d R . C . A t k i n s o n , M a r k o v L e a r n i n g M o d e l s f o r M u l t i p e r s o n I n t e r a c t i o n s , S t a n f o r d , S t a n f o r d U . P r e s s , 1960 5 . T h i b a u t , J . W . , a n d H . H . K e l l e y , T h e S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y o f G r o u p s , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y and S o n s , 1 9 6 7 . H o m a n s , G . C , S o c i a l B e h a v i o r : I t s E l e m e n t a r y F o r m s , New Y o r k , H a r c o u r t , B r a c e and W o r l d , 1 9 6 1 . B l a u , P . M . , E x c h a n g e and Power i n S o c i a l L i f e , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s , 1 9 6 4 . 6 . E m e r s o n , R . M . , " E x c h a n g e t h e o r y , P a r t I: E x c h a n g e R e l a t i o n s a n d N e t w o r k S t r u c t u r e s " , i n B e r g e r , J . , Z e l d i t c h , M . J . , a n d A n d e r s o n B . ( e d s ) , S o c i o l o g i c a l T h e o r i e s i n P r o g r e s s , V o l . 2 , B o s t o n , H o u g h t o n M i f f l i n C o . , 1 9 7 2 , p p . 3 8 - 5 7 . 7 . E m e r s o n , R . M . , " E x c h a n g e T h e o r y P a r t I I : E x c h a n g e R e l a t i o n s a n d N e t w o r k S t r u c t u r e s " , i n B e r g e r , J . , e t a l . ( e d s ) , o p . c i t . , p p . 5 8 - 8 7 . 8 . K e l l e y , H . H . , T h i b a u t , J . W . , R a d l o f f a n d M u n d y , " T h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f c o o p e r a t i o n i n t h e ' m i n i m a l s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n ' " , P s y c h o l o g i c a l M o n o g r a p h s , 1 9 6 2 , 76 ( 1 9 , W h o l e N o . 5 3 8 ) . 122 9 . K e l l e y , H . H . , e t a l . , I b i d . 1 0 . S i d o w s k i , J . B . , L . B . W y c k o f f , a n d L . T a b o r y , " T h e i n f l u e n c e o f r e i n f o r c e m e n t and p u n i s h m e n t i n a m i n i m a l s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , J . A b n o r m . a n d S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , 5 2 , 1 9 5 6 , 1 1 5 - 1 9 . 1 1 . S i d o w s k y , J . B . , e t a l . , I b i d . 1 2 . R a b i n o w i t z , L . , H . H . K e l l e y , a n d R . M . R o s e n b l a t t , " E f f e c t s o f d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e a n d r e s p o n s e c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e m i n i m a l s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , J . e x p e r . s o c . p s y c h o l . , 2 , 1 9 6 6 , 1 6 9 - 1 9 7 . 1 3 . K e l l e y , H . H . , e t a l . , o p . c i t . S i d o w s k i , J . B . , e t a l . , o p . c i t . 1 4 . K e l l e y , H . H . , e t a l . , o p . c i t . T h e f a c t o r o f a w a r e n e s s o f t h e o t h e r p e r s o n was e x a m i n e d b y S i d o w s k i ( c f . S i d o w s k i , J . B . , e t a l . , o p . c i t . ) i n t h e i r e x p e r i m e n t s w i t h t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i t h a d n o e f f e c t . T h i s was c o n s i d e r e d b y K e l l e y , e t a l . t o be d u e t o t h e u n c l a r i t y o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h t h e s u b j e c t s r e c e i v e d . K e l l e y , e t a l . , r e p l i c a t e d t h i s a s p e c t o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l s i t u a t i o n w i t h g r e a t e r d e t a i l a n d f o u n d t h a t t h e a w a r e n e s s o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c y s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t e d t h e s p e e d o f c o o r d i n a t i o n . 1 5 . F o r two s i d e s o f t h e d e b a t e s e e : S k i n n e r , B . F . , V e r b a l B e h a v i o r , New Y o r k , A p p l e t o n - C e n t u r y C r o f t s , 1 9 5 7 . C h o m s k y , N . , " R e v i e w o f ' V e r b a l B e h a v i o r ' " , L a n g u a g e , 3 5 , J a n - M a r . , 1 9 5 9 , p p . 2 6 - 5 8 . 1 6 . B a t e s o n , G . , D . D . J a c k s o n , J . H a l e y a n d J . W e a k l a n d , " T o w a r d a T h e o r y o f S c h i z o p h r e n i a " , B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , V o l . 1 , N o . 4 , 1 9 5 6 . B a t e s o n , G . , D . D . J a c k s o n , J . H a l e y a n d J . W e a k l a n d , " A N o t e o n t h e D o u b l e B i n d - 1 9 6 2 " , F a m i l y P r o c e s s , 2 , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 1 5 4 - 1 6 1 . W a t z l a w i c k , P . , " A R e v i e w o f t h e d o u b l e - b i n d t h e o r y " , F a m i l y  P r o c e s s , 2 , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 1 3 2 - 1 5 3 . W e a k l a n d , J . , " T h e d o u b l e - b i n d h y p o t h e s i s o f s c h i z o p h r e n i a a n d t h r e e - p a r t y i n t e r a c t i o n " i n J a c k s o n , D. ( e d ) , T h e E t i o l o g y  o f S c h i z o p h r e n i a , New Y o r k , B a s i c B o o k s , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 3 7 3 - 3 8 8 . 1 7 . R u b i n g t o n , E . and H . W e i n b e r g , D e v i a n c e : T h e I n t e r a c t i o n i s t P e r s p e c t i v e , New Y o r k , The M a c m i l l a n C o . , 1 9 6 8 . 1 8 . S c h e f f , T . J . , B e i n g M e n t a l l y 1 1 1 , C h i c a g o , A l d i n e P u b l i s h i n g C o . , 1 9 6 6 . D e n z i n , N . K . , " T h e S e l f - F u l f i l l i n g P r o p h e s y a n d P a t i e n t - T h e r a p i s t I n t e r a c t i o n " , i n S p i t z e r , S . P . a n d D e n z i n , N . K . , T h e M e n t a l P a t i e n t , M c G r a w - H i l l , 1 9 6 8 , p p . 3 4 9 - 3 5 8 . 123 K i t s u s e , J . I . , " S o c i e t a l R e a c t i o n t o D e v i a n t B e h a v i o u r : P r o b l e m s o f T h e o r y a n d M e t h o d " , S o c i a l P r o b l e m s , 9 , 9 1 6 2 , p p . 2 4 7 - 2 5 6 . 1 9 . S a m p s o n , H . , S . M e s s i n g e r a n d R. T o w n e , " F a m i l y P r o c e s s a n d B e c o m i n g a M e n t a l P a t i e n t " , A m e r . J . o f S o c . , 6 8 , 1 9 6 2 , p p . 8 8 - 9 6 . 2 0 . G o f f m a n , E . , " T h e M o r a l C a r e e r o f t h e M e n t a l P a t i e n t " i n G o f f m a n , E . , A s y l u m s , New Y o r k , D o u b l e d a y , 1 9 6 1 , p . 1 4 0 . 2 1 . D e n z i n , N . K . , o p . c i t . 2 2 . Two e x a m p l e s may be f o u n d i n G o f f m a n , E . , T h e P r e s e n t a t i o n o f S e l f i n E v e r y d a y L i f e , New Y o r k , D o u b l e d a y , 1 9 5 9 , a n d S c h e f f , T . J . o p . c i t . 2 3 . M o r r i s , C , S i g n s , L a n g u a g e and B e h a v i o r , New Y o r k , B r a z i l l e r , 1 9 5 5 . 2 4 . O g d e n , C . K . a n d I . A . R i c h a r d s , T h e M e a n i n g o f M e a n i n g , New Y o r k , H a r c o u r t , B r a c e a n d W o r l d , 1 9 2 3 . 2 5 . We w i l l a s s u m e t h a t s u c h p a t t e r n s a r e g e n e r a t e d t h r o u g h an a s s o c i a t i o n - l e a r n i n g t y p e o f p r o c e s s , c f . C r a m e r , P . , Word A s s o c i a t i o n , New Y o r k , A c a d e m i c P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 . D e e s e , J . , The S t r u c t u r e o f A s s o c i a t i o n s i n L a n g u a g e a n d T h o u g h t , B a l t i m o r e , J o h n H o p k i n s P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 . O g d e n , C . K . and I . A . R i c h a r d s , o p . c i t . P o s n e r , M . I . , " A b s t r a c t i o n a n d t h e P r o c e s s o f R e c o g n i t i o n " , P s y c h o l o g y o f L e a r n i n g a n d M o t i v a t i o n , V o l . 3 , New Y o r k , A c a d e m i c P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 4 3 - 1 0 0 . F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f o u r d i s c u s s i o n , we w i l l a s s u m e t h a t a b a s i c r e p e r t o i r e o f a s s o c i a t i o n s h a s b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d b y t h e i n t e r a c t a n t s and we w i l l f o c u s o n t h e c h a n g e s a n d a d a p t a t i o n s p r o d u c e d i n t h a t r e p e r t o i r e b y i n t e r a c t i o n . U s i n g t h i s a s s u m p t i o n i t w i l l b e a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e n o t i o n o f p a t t e r n i s v e r y g e n e r a l i n t h i s p a r t o f t h e d i s c u s s i o n . I t may r e f e r t o a p a t t e r n o f a c t i o n o v e r t i m e ( e . g . , r e p e t i t i o n , a l t e r n a t i o n , r a n d o m ) , o v e r s p a c e ( e . g . , s q u a r e , c i r c l e , random) o r o v e r some c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e s e two ( e . g . , p l a y i n g c h e c k e r s , p a i n t i n g a w a l l , s e r v i n g a c u s t o m e r ) . I n s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s r o l e s c a n be c o n c e i v e d a s p a t t e r n s o f a c t i o n . 2 6 . F o r r e f e r e n c e s , s e e f o o t n o t e 25.- , . . 2 7 . A n i n t e r e s t i n g d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e way i n w h i c h t e l e o l o g i c a l a n d m e c h a n i s t i c v i e w s "of b e h a v i o r -may be* c o m p a t i b l e c a n b e f o u n d i n A c k o f f , R . L . a n d F . E W E m e r y , On P u r p o s e f u l S y s t e m s , C h i c a g o , A l d i n e A t h e r t o n , 1 9 7 2 . F r o m t h e i r d i s c u s s i o n i t may n o t be u n r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n s i d e r e v e n s o c a l l e d " r e f l e x a c t i o n " f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f p u r p o s e f u l b e h a v i o r . T h e u t i l i t y o f d o i n g s o w i t h s u c h a c t i o n i s p r o b a b l y v e r y s l i g h t b u t a t t h e l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s w h i c h we p r o p o s e we f e e l t h a t t h e r e i s g r e a t u t i l i t y i n l o o k i n g a t a c t i o n f r o m a 124 t e l e o l o g i c a l p o i n t o f v i e w . 2 8 . R y l e , G . , T h e C o n c e p t o f M i n d , M i d d l e s e x , H u t c h i n s o n , 1 9 4 9 . S e e e s p e c i a l l y C h a p t e r 5 . 2 9 . H e i d e r , F . , T h e P s y c h o l o g y o f I n t e r p e r s o n a l R e l a t i o n s , N . Y . , W i l e y , 1 9 5 8 . J o n e s , E . E . a n d K . E . D a v i s , " F r o m A c t s t o D i s p o s i t i o n s : T h e a t t r i b u t i o n p r o c e s s i n p e r s o n p e r c e p t i o n " , i n B e r k o w i t z , L . , A d v a n c e s i n E x p e r i m e n t a l S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , New Y o r k , LAcademic P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 2 1 9 - 2 6 6 . K e l l e y , H . H . , " A t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y " , i n L e v i n e , D . , ( e d ) . , N e b r a s k a S y m p o s i u m o h M o t i v a t i o n , L i n c o l n , U n i v . o f N e b r a s k a P r e s s , 1 6 7 , p p . 1 6 2 - 2 4 0 . 3 0 . K e l l e y , H . H . , o p . c i t . 3 1 . C a m p b e l l , D . T . , " S o c i a l A t t i t u d e s a n d O t h e r A c q u i r e d B e h a v i o r a l D i s p o s i t i o n s " , i n K o c h , S . ( e d ) , P s y c h o l o g y : A S t u d y o f a  S c i e n c e , V o l . 6 , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 9 4 - 1 7 2 . 3 2 . M e r t o n , R . K . , " T h e S e l f - f u l f i l l i n g P r o p h e s y " , A n t i o c h R e v i e w , 8 , 1 9 4 8 , p p . 1 9 3 - 2 1 0 . A l s o i n M e r t o n , R . K . , S o c i a l T h e o r y a n d S o c i a l S t r u c t u r e , New Y o r k , F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 5 7 , p p . 4 2 1 - 4 3 6 . R o s e n t h a l , R . , E x p e r i m e n t e r E f f e c t s i n B e h a v i o r a l R e s e a r c h , New Y o r k , A p p l e t o n , 1 9 6 6 . R o s e n t h a l , R. a n d L . J a c o b s o n , P y g m a l i o n i n t h e C l a s s r o o m , New Y o r k , H o l t , R i n e h a r t a n d W i n s t o n , I n c . , 1 9 6 8 . 3 3 . B a t e s o n , G . , e t a l . , o p . c i t . , 1 9 5 6 . 3 4 . B e r g e r , P . L . a n d T . L u c k m a n n , T h e S o c i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n o f R e a l i t y : A T r e a t i s e i n t h e S o c i l o g y o f K n o w l e d g e , G a r d e n C i t y , A n c h o r B o o k s , 1 9 6 7 . 3 5 . W a l d , A . , S e q u e n t i a l A n a l y s i s , New Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 4 7 . 3 6 . T h e m o s t f a m o u s e x a m p l e o f t h i s p r o b l e m i n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s i s t h e " H a w t h o r n e E f f e c t " a s r e p o r t e d b y R o e t h l i s b e r g e r , F . J . a n d W . J . D i c k s o n , (Management and t h e W o r k e r , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 3 9 ) . 3 7 . S e e R o s e n t h a l , R. a n d L . J a c o b s o n , o p . c i t . f o r a b i b l i o g r a p h y on t h i s l i t e r a t u r e . 3 8 . D e n z i n , N . K . , o p . c i t . 3 9 . L a w r e n c e , D . H . , " A c q u i r e d D i s t i n c t i v e n e s s o f C u e s I: T r a n s f e r b e t w e e n D i s c r i m i n a t i o n s o n t h e B a s i s o f F a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h e S t i m u l u s " , J . E x p . P s y c h o l . , 3 9 , 7 7 0 - 7 8 4 , 1 9 4 9 . L a w r e n c e , D . H . , " A c q u i r e d D i s t i n c t i v e n e s s o f C u e s I I : S e l e c t i v e A s s o c i a t i o n i n a C o n s t a n t S t i m u l u s S i t u a t i o n " , J . E x p . P s y c h . , 4 0 , 1 7 5 - 1 8 8 , 1 9 5 0 . 125 L a w r e n c e , D . H . , " T h e N a t u r e o f a S t i m u l u s : Some R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n L e a r n i n g a n d P e r c e p t i o n " , i n K o c h , S . , P s y c h o l o g y  a S t u d y O f a S c i e n c e , V o l . V . , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 1 7 9 - 2 1 2 . 4 0 . A t k i n s o n , R . C . , G . H . Bower a n d E . J . G r o t h e r s , A n I n t r o d u c t i o n t o M a t h e m a t i c a l L e a r n i n g T h e o r y , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y , 1 9 6 5 , C h . 5 . 4 1 . L u r i a , A . R . , T h e H i g h e r C o r t i c a l F u n c t i o n s i n Man a n d T h e i r D i s t u r b a n c e i n L o c a l B r a i n L e s i o n s , New Y o r k , B a s i c B o o k s , 1 9 6 6 . 4 2 . S c h a f f e r , H . R . , " B e h a v i o u r u n d e r s t r e s s : A n e u r o p h y s i o l o g i c a l h y p o t h e s i s " , P s y c h o l o g i c a l R e v i e w , V o l . 6 1 , N o . 5 , 1 9 5 4 . 4 3 . R i c h a r d s o n , L . F . , " M a t h e m a t i c s o f War and F o r e i g n P o l i c y " i n Newman, J . R . , T h e W o r l d o f Laws a n d t h e W o r l d o f  C h a n c e , New Y o r k , S i m o n a n d S c h u s t e r , 1 9 5 6 , p p . 1 2 4 0 - 1 2 5 3 . 4 4 . C h e r r y , C . On Human C o m m u n i c a t i o n , New Y o r k , W i l e y , 1 9 5 7 . 4 5 . S h a n n o n , C E . and W. W e a v e r , T h e M a t h e m a t i c a l T h e o r y o f C o m m u n i c a t i o n , U r b a n a , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , 1 9 6 4 . 4 6 . C h o m s k y , N . , S y n t a c t i c S t r u c t u r e s , T h e H a g u e , M o u t o n , 1 9 5 7 . 4 7 . By u s i n g t h e t e r m ' c o d i n g p r o c e s s 1 i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e n o t i o n o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n we mean o n l y t o l i n k t h e f o r m a l t e r m ' c o d e ' t o t h e m o r e i n f o r m a l n o t i o n o f " i n t e r p r e t a t i o n " . We r e f e r t o t h e same t h i n g w i t h t h e u s e o f t h e two t e r m s , b u t make t h e l i n k o n l y t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e m o d e l . 4 8 . T h i s i s an a s s u m p t i o n s h a r e d by a w i d e r a n g e o f l e a r n i n g t h e o r i e s a n d m o d e l s f r o m p a i r e d - a s s o c i a t e l e a r n i n g t o s t i m u l u s s a m p l i n g . C f . , A t k i n s o n , R . C , e t a l . , o p . c i t . 4 9 . O g d e n , C . K . a n d I . A . R i c h a r d s , o p . c i t . , D e e s e , J . , o p . c i t . K e l l e y , H . H . , o p . c i t . 5 0 . P e t e r s o n , C . R . and W.M. D u C h a r m e , " A p r i m a c y e f f e c t i n s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y r e v i s i o n " , J . E x p . P s y c h o l o g y , 1 9 6 7 , V o l . 7 3 , N o . 1 , p p . 6 1 - 6 5 . 5 1 . T h i s phenomen i s d e a l t w i t h i n a number o f o t h e r s t u d i e s a s w e l l . F o r a g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n o f r e s e a r c h i n t h i s a r e a s e e E d w a r d s , W . , " C o n s e r v a t i s m i n Human I n f o r m a t i o n P r o c e s s i n g " i n K l e i n m u n t z , F o r m a l R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f  Human J u d g e m e n t , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s , 1 9 6 8 . 5 2 . L a w r e n c e , D . H . , o p . c i t . , 1 9 6 3 . 126 53. We would also l i k e to note that t h i s argument might serve as a basis for a theory of cognitive structure should i t be reversed. That i s , we would expect to fin d that a concatenation of a threshold and a simple learning mechanism would produce an associational structure with the form of a h i e r a r c h i c a l branching process. In terms of our model, each interpretation would have a number of acts associated with i t , but not vice versa. 54. Lawrence, D.H., op. c i t . , 1963, p.l90f. 55. Lawrence, D.H., Ibid. p.l98ff. 56. Kelley, H.H., op. c i t . , 1967. 57. Bern, D.J., "Self-perception: an alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena", Psychological Review, 74, 183-200, 1967. 58. Skinner, B.F., op. c i t . , 1957. 59. Wald, A., op. c i t . 60. Atkinson, R.C, et a l . , op. c i t . , Ch. 8. 61. Audley, R.J. and A.R. Pike, "Some alternative stochastic models of choice", The B r i t . J. of Mathem. and S t a t i s t i c a l Psych. Vol. 18, part 2, Nov. 1956, pp.207-225. 62. For a discussion of the th e o r e t i c a l significance of the concept of stimulus elements see Atkinson, R.B., et a l . , op. c i t . , pp.346-349. 63. The information given to the subjects with an example of the output of a program i s given i n Appendices A and B. 64. Ten of these subjects volunteered from classes at the University of B.C. and the other twenty-five volunteered from classes at S i r George Williams University i n Montreal. These volunteers were a l l from undergraduate courses i n the f a c u l t i e s of arts and science. Eighteen of the subjects were male and the other seventeen were female. 65. The best estimate of the mean of the geometric d i s t r i b u t i o n i s given by 1 P" 66. This value i s calculated from the t o t a l number of times the difference model alone could be used to account for the choices made ( i . e . , 35) and the t o t a l number of choices made ( i . e . , 140) 35/140 x 100 = 25% 67. 68. Peterson, CR. and W.M. DuCharme, op. c i t . Note that the k values are the values as calculated under one or other of the models. 127 6 9 . F o r e x a m p l e : a) t h e one s u b j e c t who c o n s i s t e n t l y c h o s e a t a p o i n t n o t p r e d i c t e d b y t h e D i f f e r e n c e m o d e l s a i d t h a t s h e d i a g n o s e d t h e s e q u e n c e L o w - H i g h - H i g h - L o w a s ' N e u r o p h a s i a ' (Low s u b s y s t e m ) b e c a u s e i t "came b a c k t o L o w " , b) t h e m a j o r i t y o f d i a g n o s e s w h i c h w e r e made a t v a r i a n c e w i t h t h e D i f f e r e n c e m o d e l w e r e made b y f e m a l e s (77%; f = 16) . 7 0 . U n d e r t h e t h i r d s t r a t e g y f o r a n a l y s i s (any i n c r e a s e i n k) t h e d i f f e r e n c e s f o u n d i n T a b l e 6 . 5 d i s a p p e a r . 7 1 . A p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n u s i n g s u c h a f u n c t i o n i n w h i c h k was a s s u m e d t o be n o r m a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d a n d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f c h o i c e was a s s u m e d t o be a l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f t h e number o f t r i a l s h a s y i e l d e d e n c o u r a g i n g b u t i n c o n c l u s i v e r e s u l t s . T h i s i s one s t r a t e g y w h i c h w i l l be p u r s u e d . 128 BIBLIOGRAPHY A c k o f f , R . L . a n d F . E . E m e r y , Oh P u r p o s e f u l S y s t e m s , C h i c a g o , 1972 A l d i n e A t h e r t o n . A t k i n s o n , R . C . a n d P . S u p p e s , "An a n a l y s i s o f t w o - p e r s o n game 1958 s i t u a t i o n s i n t e r m s o f s t a t i s t i c a l l e a r n i n g t h e o r y " , J . o f E x p t l . P s y c h o l . , 5 5 , 3 6 9 - 3 7 8 . A t k i n s o n , R . C , G . H . Bower a n d E . J . C r o t h e r s , A n I n t r o d u c t i o n t o 1965 M a t h e m a t i c a l L e a r n i n g T h e o r y , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y , C h a p t e r 5 . A u d l e y , R . J . and A . R . P i k e , "Some a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c h a s t i c m o d e l s 1956 o f c h o i c e " , T h e B r i t . J . o f M a t h , a n d S t a t . P s y c h . , 1 8 , 2 , N o v e m b e r , 2 0 7 - 2 2 5 . B a t e s o n , G . , D . D . J a c k s o n , J . H a l e y a n d J . W e a k l a n d , " T o w a r d a 1956 t h e o r y o f s c h i z o p h r e n i a " , B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , 1 , 4 , O c t o b e r , 2 5 1 - 2 6 4 . B a t e s o n , G . , D . D . J a c k s o n , J . H a l e y a n d J . W e a k l a n d , " A n o t e o n 1963 t h e d o u b l e b i n d - 1 9 6 2 " , F a m i l y P r o c e s s , 2 , 1 5 4 - 1 6 1 . B e r g e r , P . L . and T . L u c k m a n n , The S o c i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n o f R e a l i t y ; 1967 A T r e a t i s e i n t h e S o c i o l o g y o f K n o w l e d g e , G a r d e n C i t y , A n c h o r B o o k s . B l a u , P . M . , E x c h a n g e a n d Power i n S o c i a l L i f e , New Y o r k , J o h n 1964 W i l e y a n d S o n s . B u r k e , C . J . , " A p p l i c a t i o n s o f a l i n e a r m o d e l t o t w o - p e r s o n i n t e r -1959 a c t i o n s " , i n B u s h , R . R . a n d W . K . E s t e s ( e d s ) , S t u d i e s  i n M a t h e m a t i c a l L e a r n i n g T h e o r y , S t a n f o r d , S t a n f o r d U . P r e s s , C h a p t e r 9 . C a m p b e l l , D . T . , " S o c i a l a t t i t u d e s a n d o t h e r a c q u i r e d b e h a v i o r a l 1963 d i s p o s i t i o n s " , i n K o c h , S . (ed) , P s y c h o l o g y : A S t u d y o f a S c i e n c e , V o l . 6 , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l P u b . C o . , 9 4 - 1 7 2 . C h e r r y , C . , On Human C o m m u n i c a t i o n , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s 1957 C h o m s k y , N . , S y n t a c t i c S t r u c t u r e s , T h e H a g u e , -Mouton P r e s s . 1957 C h o m s k y , N . , " R e v i e w o f ' V e r b a l B e h a v i o r ' " , L a n g u a g e , 3 5 , J a n u a r y 1959 M a r c h , 2 6 - 5 8 . C r a m e r , P . , Word A s s o c i a t i o n , New Y o r k , A c a d e m i c P r e s s . 1968 129 D e e s e , J . , The S t r u c t u r e o f A s s o c i a t i o n s i n L a n g u a g e a n d T h o u g h t , 1965 B a l t i m o r e , J o h n H o p k i n s P r e s s . D e n z i n , N . K . a n d S . P . S p i t z e r , " P a t h s t o t h e m e n t a l h o s p i t a l a n d 1966 s t a f f p r e d i c t i o n s o f p a t i e n t r o l e b e h a v i o r " , J . o f H e a l t h  a n d Human B e h a v i o r , 7 , 2 6 5 - 2 7 1 . D e n z i n , N . K . , " T h e s e l f - f u l f i l l i n g p r o p h e s y a n d p a t i e n t - t h e r a p i s t 1968 i n t e r a c t i o n " , i n S p i t z e r , S . P . a n d N . K . D e n z i n ( e d s ) , The M e n t a l P a t i e n t : s t u d i e s i n t h e s o c i o l o g y o f d e v i a n c e , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l , 3 4 9 - 3 5 8 . E d w a r d s , W . , " C o n s e r v a t i s m i n human i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g " i n 1968 K l e i n m u n t z , F o r m a l R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f Human J u d g e m e n t , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y and S o n s . E m e r s o n , R . M . , " E x c h a n g e t h e o r y p a r t I: E x c h a n g e r e l a t i o n s a n d 1972 n e t w o r k s t r u c t u r e s " i n B e r g e r , J . , M . J . Z e l d i t c h a n d B . A n d e r s o n ( e d s ) , S o c i o l o g i c a l T h e o r i e s i n P r o g r e s s , V o l . 2 , B o s t o n , H o u g h t o n M i f f l i n C o . , 3 8 - 5 7 . E m e r s o n , R . M . , " E x c h a n g e t h e o r y p a r t I I : E x c h a n g e r e l a t i o n s a n d 1972 n e t w o r k s t r u c t u r e s " i n B e r g e r , J . , e t a l . , S o c i o l o g i c a l T h e o r i e s i n P r o g r e s s , V o l . 2 , B o s t o n , H o u g h t o n M i f f l i n C o . , 5 8 - 8 7 . E s t e s , W . K . , " O f m o d e l s and m e n " , A m e r . P s y c h o l . , 1 2 , 6 0 9 - 6 1 7 . 1957 F l o o d , M . M . , " A s t o c h a s t i c m o d e l f o r s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n " , T r a n s . 1954 N . Y . A c a d . S c i e n c e , 1 6 , 2 0 2 - 2 0 5 . • F l o o d , M . M . , " G a m e - l e a r n i n g t h e o r y a n d some d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g e x p e r i -1954 m e n t s " i n T h r a l l , R . M . , C H . Coombs a n d R . L . D a v i s ( e d s ) , D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s e s , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s , C h a p t e r 1 0 . G o f f m a n , E . , T h e P r e s e n t a t i o n o f S e l f i n E v e r y d a y L i f e , New Y o r k , 1959 D o u b l e d a y . G o f f m a n , E . , A s y l u m s , New Y o r k , D o u b l e d a y . 1961 G o f f m a n , E . , E n c o u n t e r s : Two S t u d i e s i n t h e S o c i o l o g y o f I n t e r -1961 a c t i o n , I n d i a n a p o l i s , The B o b b s - M e r r i l l C o . G o f f m a n , E . , I n t e r a c t i o n R i t u a l , New Y o r k , D o u b l e d a y . 1967 H e i d e r , F . , " S o c i a l p e r c e p t i o n and p h e n o m e n a l c a u s a l i t y " , P s y c h o l . 1944 R e v i e w , 5 1 , 3 5 8 - 3 7 4 . H e i d e r , F . , T h e P s y c h o l o g y o f I n t e r p e r s o n a l R e l a t i o n s , New Y o r k , 1958 J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s . 130 Homans , G . C . , S o c i a l B e h a v i o r : I t s E l e m e n t a r y F o r m s , New Y o r k , 1961 H a r c o u r t , B r a c e a n d W o r l d . J o n e s , E . E . and K . E . D a v i s , " F r o m a c t s t o d i s p o s i t i o n s : t h e 1965 a t t r i b u t i o n p r o c e s s i n p e r s o n p e r c e p t i o n " , i n B e r k o w i t z , L . , A d v a n c e s i n E x p e r i m e n t a l S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , New Y o r k , A c a d e m i c P r e s s , 2 1 9 - 2 6 6 . J o n e s , E . E . a n d H . B . G e r a r d , F o u n d a t i o n s o f S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , 1967 New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y and S o n s . K e l l e y , H . H . , J . W . T h i b a u t , R. R a d l o f f a n d M u n d y , " T h e d e v e l o p m e n t 1962 o f c o o p e r a t i o n i n t h e ' m i n i m a l s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n ' " , P s y c h o l o g i c a l M o n o g r a p h s , 7 6 , ( 1 9 , W h o l e N o . 5 3 8 ) . K e l l e y , H . H . , " A t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y i n s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g y " , i n 1967 L e v i n e , D . , ( e d ) , N e b r a s k a S y m p o s i u m o n M o t i v a t i o n , L i n c o l n , U n i v . o f N e b r a s k a P r e s s , 1 6 2 - 2 4 0 . K i t s u s e , J . I . , " S o c i e t a l r e a c t i o n t o d e v i a n t b e h a v i o r : P r o b l e m s 1962 o f t h e o r y and m e t h o d " , S o c i a l P r o b l e m s , 9 , 2 4 7 - 2 5 6 . L a c h e n m e y e r , C . , " A n e x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d y o f t h e d o u b l e - b i n d 1967 h y p o t h e s i s " , M . A . T h e s i s , C h a p e l H i l l , U n i v . o f C a r o l i n a . L a w r e n c e , D . H . , " A c q u i r e d d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s o f c u e s : I. T r a n s f e r 1949 b e t w e e n d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o n t h e b a s i s o f f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h t h e s t i m u l u s " , J . o f E x p . P s y c h . , 3 9 , 7 7 0 - 7 8 4 . L a w r e n c e , D . H . , " A c q u i r e d d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s o f c u e s : I I . S e l e c t i v e 1950 a s s o c i a t i o n i n a c o n s t a n t s t i m u l u s s i t u a t i o n " , J . o f  E x p . P s y c h . , 4 0 , 1 7 5 - 1 8 8 . L a w r e n c e , D . H . , " T h e n a t u r e o f a s t i m u l u s : Some r e l a t i o n s h i p s 1963 b e t w e e n l e a r n i n g a n d p e r c e p t i o n " , i n K o c h , S . , P s y c h o l o g y : A S t u d y o f a S c i e n c e , V o l . 5 , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l , 1 7 9 - 2 1 2 . L u c e , R . D . a n d H . R a i f f a , Games a n d D e c i s i o n s , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y 1957 a n d S o n s . L u r i a , A . R . , " T h e d i r e c t i v e r o l e o f s p e e c h i n d e v e l o p m e n t a n d 1959 d i s s o c i a t i o n , P a r t 1 " , W o r d , 1 5 , (2 ,3 ) 3 4 1 - 3 5 2 . L u r i a , A . R . , " T h e d i r e c t i v e f u n c t i o n o f s p e e c h i n d e v e l o p m e n t a n d 1959 d i s s o l u t i o n , P a r t 2 " , W o r d , 1 5 , ( 2 ,3 ) 4 5 3 - 4 6 4 . L u r i a , A . R . , S p e e c h a n d t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f M e n t a l P r o c e s s e s i n t h e 1959 C h i l d : a n E x p e r i m e n t a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n , L o n d o n , S t a p l e s P r e s s . L u r i a , A . R . , T h e H i g h e r C o r t i c a l F u n c t i o n s i n Man a n d T h e i r 1966 D i s t u r b a n c e i n L o c a l B r a i n L e s i o n s , New Y o r k , B a s i c B o o k s . 131 L u r i a , A . R . , "The f u n c t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n of the b r a i n " , S c i e n t i f i c 197 0 Amer ican , March, 6 6 - 6 9 . Merton , R . K . , "The s e l f - f u l f i l l i n g prophesy", A n t i o c h Review, 8 , 1948 1 9 3 - 2 1 0 . A l s o i n Mer ton , R . K . , S o c i a l Theory and S o c i a l S t r u c t u r e , New Y ork , Free P r e s s , 1 9 5 7 , 4 2 1 - 4 3 6 . M o r r i s , C . , S i g n s , Language and B e h a v i o r , New Y ork , B r a z i l l e r . 1955 Ogden, C . K . , and I . A . R i c h a r d s , The Meaning of Meaning, New Y o r k , 1923 Harcour t , Brace and Wor ld . Pe t e r son , C R . and A . S . M i l l e r , " S e n s i t i v i t y of s u b j e c t i v e 1965 p r o b a b i l i t y r e v i s i o n " , J . Exp. P s y c h . , 7 0 , 1 1 7 - 1 2 1 . Pe te r son , C R . and W.M. DuCharme, "A primacy e f f e c t i n s u b j e c t i v e 1967 p r o b a b i l i t y r e v i s i o n " , J . Exp. P s y c h . , 7 3 , 1 , 6 1 - 6 5 . P h i l l i p s , L . D . and W. Edwards, "Conservat ism i n a s imple p r o b a b i l i t y 1961 i n fe rence t a sk" , J . Exp. P s y c h . , 7 2 , 3 , 3 4 6 - 3 5 4 . P i t z , G . F . , L . Downing and H. R e i n h o l d , "Sequen t i a l e f f e c t s i n the 1967 r e v i s i o n of s u b j e c t i v e p r o b a b i l i t i e s " , Canad. J . P s y c h . , 2 1 , 5 , 3 8 1 - 3 9 3 . Posner , M . I . , " A b s t r a c t i o n and the process of r e c o g n i t i o n " , Psycholog; 1969 o f Learn ing and M o t i v a t i o n , 3 , New Y o r k , Academic P r e s s , 4 3 - 1 0 0 . Rab inowi t z , L . , H . H . K e l l e y and R . M . Rosenb la t t , " E f f e c t s of 1966 d i f f e r e n t types of interdependence and response c o n d i t i o n s i n the minimal s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , J . Exper .  Soc. P s y c h . , 2 , 1 6 9 - 1 9 7 . Rapoport , A . , F i g h t s , Games and Debates, U . of Mich igan P r e s s . 1960 Rapoport , A . , and C. Orwant, "Exper imenta l games: a r e v i e w " , 1962 B e h a v i o r a l Sc i ence , 7 , 1 - 3 7 . Richardson , L . F . , "Mathematics of war and f o r e i g n p o l i c y " i n 1956 Newman, J . R . , The World of Laws and the World of Chance, New Yor k , Simon and Schus te r , 1 2 4 0 - 1 2 5 3 . R o e t h l i s b e r g e r , F . J . and W . J . D i c k s o n , Management and the Worker, 1939 Cambridge, M a s s . , Harvard U n i v . P r e s s . Rosen tha l , R . , Experimenter E f f e c t s i n B e h a v i o r a l Research, New 1966 York , A p p l e t o n . Rosen tha l , R. and L . Jacobson, Pygmalion i n the Classroom, New 1968 Yo r k , H o l t , R inehar t and Wins ton . 132 R u b i n g t o n , E . and H . W e i n b e r g , D e v i a n c e : T h e I n t e r a c t i o n i s t 1968 P e r s p e c t i v e , New Y o r k , T h e M a c m i l l a n C o . R y l e , G . , T h e C o n c e p t o f M i n d , M i d d l e s e x , H u t c h i n s o n P r e s s . 1949 S a m p s o n , H . , S . M e s s i n g e r a n d R. T o w n e , " F a m i l y p r o c e s s a n d 1962 b e c o m i n g a m e n t a l p a t i e n t " , A m e r . J . o f S o c . , 6 8 , 8 8 - 9 6 . S c h a f f e r ; H . R . , " B e h a v i o r u n d e r s t r e s s : a n e u r o p h y s i c a l h y p o t h e s i s " , 1954 P s y c h o l o g i c a l R e v i e w , 6 1 , 5 , 3 2 3 - 3 3 3 . S c h e f f , T . J . , B e i n g M e n t a l l y 1 1 1 , C h i c a g o , A l d i n e P u b l i s h i n g C o . 1966 S h a n n o n , C E . and W. W e a v e r , T h e M a t h e m a t i c a l T h e o r y o f C o m m u n i c a t i o n 1964 U r b a n a , T h e U n i v . o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s . S h u b i k , M. ( e d ) , Game T h e o r y a n d R e l a t e d A p p r o a c h e s t o S o c i a l 1964 B e h a v i o r , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y a n d S o n s . S i d o w s k i , J . B . , L . B . W y c k o f f a n d L . T a b o r y , " T h e i n f l u e n c e o f 1956 r e i n f o r c e m e n t and p u n i s h m e n t i n a m i n i m a l s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n " , J . A b n o r m . arid S o c . P s y c h . 5 2 , 1 1 5 - 1 1 9 . S k i n n e r , B . F . , V e r b a l B e h a v i o r , New Y o r k , A p p l e t o n - C e n t u r y - C r o f t s , 1957 S u p p e s , P . a n d R . C . A t k i n s o n , M a r k o v L e a r n i n g M o d e l s f o r M u l t i p e r s o n 1960 I n t e r a c t i o n s , S t a n f o r d , S t a n f o r d U . P r e s s . T h i b a u t , J . W . a n d H . H . K e l l e y , The S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y o f G r o u p s , 19 67 New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y and S o n s . W a l d , A . , S e q u e n t i a l A n a l y s i s , New Y o r k , J o h n W i l e y and S o n s . 1947 W a t z l a w i c k , P . , " A r e v i e w o f t h e d o u b l e - b i n d t h e o r y " , F a m i l y P r o c e s s , 1963 2 , 1 3 2 - 1 5 3 . W e a k l a n d , J . , " T h e d o u b l e - b i n d h y p o t h e s i s o f s c h i z o p h r e n i a a n d 1960 t h r e e - p a r t y i n t e r a c t i o n " i n J a c k s o n , D. ( e d ) , T h e E t i o l o g y o f S c h i z o p h r e n i a , New Y o r k , B a s i c B o o k s , C h a p t e r 1 3 , 3 7 3 - 3 8 8 . 133 A p p e n d i x A A D e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e E x p e r i m e n t a l S i t u a t i o n 1 . S u b j e c t s w e r e s e a t e d b e f o r e a c o m p u t e r t e r m i n a l . T h e t e r m i n a l u s e d f o r t h e f i r s t 10 s u b j e c t s was an IBM MED2260 t e r m i n a l . T h e t e r m i n a l u s e d f o r t h e l a s t 25 s u b j e c t s was a CDC t e r m i n a l . F o r b o t h m a c h i n e s , t h e s u b j e c t s t y p e d t h e i r r e s p o n s e s o n a k e y b o a r d s i m i l a r t o a t y p e w r i t e r , and t h e m a c h i n e r e s p o n s e s w e r e d i s p l a y e d o n a s c r e e n . 2 . S u b j e c t s f i r s t o f a l l w e r e a s k e d t o r e a d a g e n e r a l d e s c r i p -t i o n o f t h e s t u d y ( c f . A p p e n d i x B . a ) . 3 . T h e y w e r e t h e n a s k e d t o t y p e a number o n t h e c o n s o l e . T h i s number was s i m p l y u s e d t o d i s t i n g u i s h t h e s u b j e c t s o n t h e r e c o r d o f d a t a . The m a c h i n e t h e n r e s p o n d e d b y t y p i n g a s e t o f s p e c i f i c o p e r a t i n g i n s t r u c t i o n s o n t h e s c r e e n . ( c f . A p p e n d i x B . b ) . 4 . S u b j e c t s b e g a n t h e s e q u e n c e o f symptoms b y t y p i n g ' s ' . a A t y p i c a l s e q u e n c e i s p r i n t e d i n A p p e n d i x B . b . W h e r e a s t h i s t y p i c a l s e q u e n c e i s p r i n t e d , t h e s u b j e c t saw o n l y one symptom a t a t i m e o n t h e s c r e e n . A f t e r t h e s u b j e c t made a r e s p o n s e , t h e symptom was e r a s e d a n d a new one s u b s t i t u t e d . 5 . When a d i a g n o s i s was m a d e , a new p a t i e n t was i n t r o d u c e d w i t h t h e m e s s a g e : "I WILL NOW G I V E YOU READING FOR A NEW P A T I E N T " a n d a new s e r i e s o f symptoms was b e g u n . 6 . A f t e r 5 p a t i e n t s , t h e p r o g r a m was t e r m i n a t e d . 134 A r e c o r d o f t h e s u b j e c t r e s p o n s e s , m a c h i n e r e s p o n s e s , k v a l u e s u n d e r e a c h m o d e l a n d t h e t i m e o f r e s p o n s e f o r e a c h t r i a l was s t o r e d b y t h e c o m p u t e r . (A c o p y o f t h e p r o g r a m w i t h some s a m p l e d a t a i s g i v e n i n A p p e n d i x E ) . 7. The p o s t e x p e r i m e n t a l i n t e r v i e w was c o n d u c t e d . ( c f . A p p e n d i x D) . 135 A p p e n d i x Ba  H a n d o u t t o t h e S u b j e c t s A g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s t u d y I n t h i s s t u d y we a r e e x a m i n i n g t h e way i n w h i c h p e r s o n s make d i a g n o s e s o f d i s e a s e s o n t h e b a s i s o f a s e q u e n c e o f s y m p t o m s . B y an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h i s p r o c e s s , we h o p e t o i m p r o v e t h e way i n w h i c h d i s e a s e s may be d i a g n o s e d b y m e d i c a l p e r s o n n e l , a n d p o s s i b l y e v e n by m a c h i n e s . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g e x c h a n g e y o u w i l l be a s k e d t o d i a g n o s e a d i s e a s e o n t h e b a s i s o f a s e q u e n c e o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s . T h e r e a d i n g s a r e a t y p i c a l s e q u e n c e o f r e a d i n g s f o r p a t i e n t s who h a v e c o n t a c t e d t h e two d i s e a s e s i n w h i c h we a r e i n t e r e s t e d . T h e f i r s t d i s e a s e i s c a l l e d ANEUROPHASIA. I t i s t y p i c a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h HIGH b l o o d p r e s s u r e l e v e l s , a l t h o u g h t h e s e l e v e l s a r e n o t c o n s t a n t f o r e a c h p a t i e n t , b u t s o m e t i m e s w i l l d r o p d r a s t i c a l l y f o r a s h o r t p e r i o d o f t i m e . T h i s d r o p i n b l o o d p r e s s u r e i s t h e r e s u l t o f many c o m p l e x f a c t o r s s u c h a s t h e p a t i e n t ' s s t a m i n a , t h e p r e s e n c e o f a s s o c i a t e d c o m p l i c a t i o n s , and t h e p a t i e n t ' s h i s t o r y o f i l l n e s s . T h e s e c o n d d i s e a s e i s l i k e t h e f i r s t i n many r e s p e c t s , b u t i t i s u s u a l l y d i s t i n g u i s h e d by t h e LOW l e v e l s o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e w h i c h i t c r e a t e s . I t i s c a l l e d NEUROPHASIA. L i k e a n e u r o p h a s i a , t h e b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s w i l l s o m e t i m e s s h i f t d u e t o v a r i o u s f a c t o r s . 136 B o t h o f t h e s e d i s e a s e s a r e r e a s o n a b l y r a r e , b o t h w i l l r e s u l t i n d e a t h i f n o t t r e a t e d , y e t b o t h r e s p o n d w e l l t o t h e p r o p e r t r e a t m e n t . B e c a u s e o f t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f a p a t i e n t w i t h t h e s e d i s e a s e s , a d i a g n o s i s s h o u l d b e made a s a c c u r a t e l y a s p o s s i b l e , b u t a l s o a s s o o n a s p o s s i b l e . I t i s o f t e n t h e c a s e t h a t a p a t i e n t may d i e a f t e r o n l y 3 d a y s f r o m t h e o n s e t o f t h e d i s e a s e i f i t i s n o t t r e a t e d . I n a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s i s w i l l p r o d u c e t h e same r e s u l t . The p r o b l e m f o r a d o c t o r , t h e n , i s t o make a r e l a t i v e l y q u i c k d i a g n o s i s o n t h e b a s i s o f u n s t a b l e s y m p t o m s . T o t h i s d a t e , t h e o n l y means o f s e p a r a t i n g t h e two d i s e a s e s i s t h r o u g h t h e g e n e r a l d i f f e r e n c e i n b l o o d p r e s s u r e o v e r t i m e - y e t t i m e c a n n o t be w a s t e d . We a r e a s k i n g y o u t o h e l p u s i n t h i s d i l e m m a b y i n d i c a t i n g t h e way i n w h i c h y o u w o u l d d i a g n o s e a n e u r o p h a s i a o r n e u r o p h a s i a f o r p a r t i c u l a r p a t i e n t s . Y o u w i l l b e p r e s e n t e d w i t h a s e r i e s o f b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g s ( e i t h e r H i g h o r L o w ) . E a c h r e a d i n g y o u r e c e i v e r e p r e s e n t s t h e p a s s a g e o f a b o u t 30 m i n u t e s . A t a n y p o i n t y o u may d i a g n o s e t h e d i s e a s e . A w r o n g d i a g n o s i s w i l l a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y mean t h e l o s s o f t h e p a t i e n t . REMEMBER: A HIGH b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g i s m o s t t y p i c a l o f ANEUROPHASIA , w h e r e a s A LOW b l o o d p r e s s u r e r e a d i n g i s m o s t t y p i c a l o f NEUROPHASIA. 137 A p p e n d i x B . b A n E x a m p l e o f an I n t e r a c t i o n S e q u e n c e N o t e : U p p e r c a s e l e t t e r s a r e p r i n t e d b y t h e m a c h i n e L o w e r c a s e l e t t e r s a r e t y p e d b y t h e s u b j e c t . E a c h t i m e t h e s u b j e c t t y p e s b , n o r a , t h e s c r e e n i s e r a s e d a n d a new symptom p r e s e n t e d . WHAT IS YOUR NUMBER? 200 H E L L O , I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF BOTH THE ACCURACY OF THE DIAGNOSIS YOU MAKE AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH YOU MAKE I T . I WILL G I V E YOU ONE OF TWO P O S S I B L E BLOOD PRESSURE READINGS: HIGH BP OR LOW BP AND THEN ASK FOR YOUR D I A G N O S I S . I F YOU NEED MORE BLOOD PRESSURE READINGS BEFORE MAKING YOUR D I A G N O S I S , SIMPLY T Y P E THE L E T T E R ' B ' . YOU MAY T A K E YOUR TIME IN RESPONDING, BUT REMEMBER THAT EACH READING YOU REQUEST REPRESENTS THE LOSS OF ABOUT 30 M I N U T E S , SO DO NOT L E T THE P A T I E N T ' S CONDITION DETERIORATE TOO LONG. YOUR F I N A L DIAGNOSIS CAN BE INDICATED BY T Y P I N G : ' A ' FOR ANEUROPHASIA OR ' N ' FOR NEUROPHASIA REMEMBER: ANEUROPHASIA PRODUCES A PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH BP READINGS NEUROPHASIA PRODUCES A PREPONDERANCE OF LOW BP READINGS THE READINGS FOR YOUR F I R S T P A T I E N T WILL BEGIN WHEN YOU T Y P E ' S ' . OKAY HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b H IGH BP DIAGNOSIS? a I WILL NOW G I V E YOU READINGS FOR A NEW P A T I E N T HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? n I WILL NOW G I V E YOU READINGS FOR A NEW P A T I E N T HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? n I WILL NOW G I V E YOU READINGS FOR A NEW P A T I E N T LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? n I WILL NOW G I V E YOU READINGS FOR A NEW P A T I E N T LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? b LOW BP DIAGNOSIS? b HIGH BP DIAGNOSIS? a THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME 140 Appendix C a. Schedule f o r Symptoms f o r the L a s t Four P a t i e n t s H = h i g h blood p r e s s u r e L = low blood p r e s s u r e T r i a l No. P a t i e n t P a t i e n t P a t i e n t P a t i e n t 2 3 4 5 1 H H L L 2 L L H H 3 L H H L 4 H L L H 5 H H H L 6 H L H H 7 H L L H 8 H H H L 9 H L L H 10 H L H H 11 H H H L 12 H L H H 13 H H L L 14 H L H H 15 H L H H 16 H L L H 17 H H H L 18 H L H H 19 H L L H 20 H H H L 21 H L H H 22 H L H H 23 H H L L 24 H L H H 141 b . Number o f T r i a l s t o D i a g n o s e s f o r T h i r t y - f i v e S u b j e c t s S u b j e c t P a t i e n t P a t i e n t P a t i e n t P a t i e n t S e x o f Number 2 3 4 . .5 . . . S u b j e c t 1 5 7 11 10 M 2 7 17 12 10 F 3 1 2 3 3 M 4 10 19 15 15 M 5 8 16 6 9 8 9 8 F 7 11 24 20 19 M 8 8 19 15 19 M 9 8 15 10 15 M 10 3 7 6 7 11 6 10 5 10 M 12 6 15 11 15 M 13 3 1 6 4 M 14 2 3 4 4 F 15 6 10 7 16 5 3 3 5 F 17 6 5 7 5 F 18 7 12 13 10 F 19 6 6 6 6 M 20 3 5 6 6 21 3 3 3 i 1 M 22 8 16 12 16 M 23 7 15 10 8 M 24 9 10 12 17 F 25 1 5 2 • 5 • M 26 6 1 6 7 M 27 9 16 18 19 F 28 6 9 10 9 M 29 3 7 2 6 F 30 7 16 11 18 F 31 5 7 3 7 F 32 6 9 6 10 F 33 7 10 11 12 F 34 7 4 11 7 F 35 3 3 4 4 F 142 A p p e n d i x D C a l c u l a t i o n o f E x p e c t e d F r e q u e n c i e s f o r P a t i e n t Number 4 . S t e p s : 1 . Mean number o f t r i a l s t o d e c i s i o n c a l c u l a t e d o v e r a l l s u b j e c t s . (mean = 8 . 6 t r i a l s ) 2 . P a r a m e t e r p o f t h e g e o m e t r i c d i s t r i b u t i o n c a l c u l a t e d . p = = . 116 mean 3 . P r o b a b i l i t i e s f o r a c h o i c e o n e a c h t r i a l up t o t r i a l 50 i s c a l c u l a t e d , u s i n g t h e g e o m e t r i c d i s t r i b u t i o n . E x a m p l e p r o b a b i l i t i e s f o r t r i a l s 1 - 1 0 . (p = .116 ) T r i a l number P r o b a b i l i t y of c h o i c e . • 1 . 1 1 5 2 . 102 3 . 090 4 . 080 5 . 071 6 . 0 6 3 7 . 0 5 5 8 . 043 9 .038 10 . 038 4 . P r o b a b i l i t i e s summed o v e r a l l t r i a l s w h i c h i m p l y a g i v e n c h o i c e t y p e e . g . , t r i a l s 6 , 1 1 , 1 5 , 1 8 , 2 3 , 2 4 , 2 7 , 3 0 , 3 5 , 3 6 , 3 9 , 4 2 , 47 a n d 4 8 i m p l y t y p e 1 ( D i f f e r e n c e m o d e l o n l y ) . T h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a c h o i c e o c c u r r i n g o n e a c h o f t h e s e t r i a l s ( u n d e r t h e g e o m e t r i c d i s t r i b u t i o n ) i s summed o v e r a l l t h e t r i a l s , t o g i v e a p r o b a b i l i t y f o r t h e D i f f e r e n c e m o d e l o n l y o c c u r r i n g b y c h a n c e . ( P r o b ( D i f f ) = .160) 5 . P r o b a b i l i t i e s f o r e a c h t y p e o f m o d e l a r e m u l t i p l i e d b y 35 ( t h e n o . o f s u b j e c t s ) t o g i v e t h e e x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c i e s f o r e a c h m o d e l . 143 A p p e n d i x E Q u e s t i o n s A s k e d D u r i n g P o s t - E x p e r i m e n t a l I n t e r v i e w 1. C a n y o u t e l l me a n y t h i n g a b o u t t h e way i n w h i c h y o u d e c i d e d what t o d i a g n o s e ? 2 . T o w h a t e x t e n t w e r e y o u c o n c e r n e d a b o u t m a k i n g an a c c u r a t e d i a g n o s i s w i t h r e s p e c t t o m a k i n g a q u i c k o n e ? 3 . Go t h r o u g h e a c h c h o i c e made - - a s k what i t was t h a t a f f e c t e d t h e m a k i n g o f t h a t c h o i c e . 4 . Have y o u e v e r p a r t i c i p a t e d i n a n e x p e r i m e n t l i k e t h i s b e f o r e ? I f so - w h a t k i n d ? APPENDIX F.A. COMPUTER PROGRAM 10 PROGRAM DOCTOR(INPUT,OUTPUT,TAPE^,TAPE5=INPUT,TAPE6=OUTPUT) 20C PROGRAM OCC 4ULY 6/72 30C DOCTOR PROGRAM 31C THIS PROGRAM IS USED TO PRESENT A SERIES OF SYMPTOMS, 3^2-C ASK FOR A DIAGNOSIS, AN!} TO RECORD SEVERAL FACTORS 33C RELATING TO THE RESPONSE. *»0C 50 DIMENSION N O M ( 1 2 ) , N O ( 5 , 6 0 ) , N O U T < 2 ) , I N ( 2 0 ) , M A ( 2 ) , J M ( 3 , 2 ) , D t 2 ) , 60+ TMC2) 70 DATA NCM/1,2,2,1,2,2,1,2,1,2,2,2/ DATA NCUT/10HHIGH BP 10HLOW BP 90 100 110 120 130 m o c DATA MA/10HA ,10HN DATA KEND/10HEND / DATA NE >T/10HNE XT / NPAT=0 flK = i /,NS/10HB 150C 160C 170 180 190 200 SET UP RESPONSE ARRAYS L3 = 0 DO 70 L l = l , 5 00 70 L 2 = l , 1 2 L3-L3+1 210 70 N0<1,L3)=N0ML2> 220 L2=0 230 00 71 L l = 7 , 1 0 2^0 L2=L2+1 250 L 3 = L l - 6 260 NO ( 2 , L 2 ) - N 0 M L 3 ) 270 71 280 290 300 310 72 320C N 0 ( 3 , L 2 ) = N 0 M L i ) DO 72 L l = i,<+6 L2=Ll+4 NO ( 2,L 2)=1 N 0 ( 3 , L 2 ) = N 0 ( 1 , L 1 ) 330C 3-fOC 350 51 360 1 370 380 2 RE AO IN SU'EJECT NUMBER AND ACT APPROPRIATL Y WRITE C6 ,1) FORMAT(6X,*WHAT IS YCUR NUMBERS*/) READ*5,2) NAME FORMAT(13) 390 IF(NAr-E) 56,56,52 <+00C klQC PUT INSTRUCTIONS IN HERE ••2QC tf30 52 WRITE(6,3) -+<+0 3 FORMAT(5X,*HELLO,*/3X,*I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE* i , * n c t - L. u , • f o A , 1*50+ * OF BOTH THE ACCURACY OF*/10X,*THE DIAGNOSIS YOU MAKE AND THE*, lf60+ * S FEED WITH WHICH YOU MAKE I T . * / if70+ 8 X , * I WILL GIVE YOU ONE OF TWO POSSIBLE BLOOD PRESSURE READINGS!*/ U8Q + 26X,*HIGH EP*/ ^90+ 30X,*OR*/26X,*LGW BP*/10X,*AND THEN ASK FOR YOUR DIAGNOSIS.*/ 500+ 8 X , * I F YOU NEED MORE BLOOD PRESSURE READINGS BEFORE MAKING */ SIR G E O R G E W I L L I A M S U N I V E R S I T Y C O M P U T E R C E N T E R 510+ 10X,*YOUR DIAGNOSIS, SIMPLY TYPE THE LETTER *B*.*/ 520+ 8X,*YOU PAY TAKE YCUR TIME IN RESPONDING,*, 530+ * BUT RENEfBER THAT EACH*/10X,*READING YOU REQUEST REPRESENTS*, 5^0+ * THE LGSS OF ABOUT 30 MINUTES,*/iOX,* SO DO NOT LET THE PATIENT/S*, IH<> —U LMJ1 I l l f I t I t K l U K H I t J-trt L U1M U t T / / ! ! A , T i U U 1 t — r 1 IN H L U l H U I N U l l J • , * CAN BE INDICATED BY TYP I fvG I */2 0 X , * * A* FOR ANEUROPHASIA */30X,*OR*/ 20X,**N# FCR NEUROPHASIA*/eX,*REMEMBER:*/10X,*ANEUROPHASIA*, * PRODUCES A PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH BP REAOINGS*/,10X,*NEUROPHASIA*, * PROOUCES A PREPONDERANCE OF LOW BP PEADINGS*//8X,*THE READINGS*, * FGR YCUR FIRST PATIEM WILL BEGIN WHEN YOU ENTER *S*'.*///> READ(5,100) START — 620 100 630 6*tQ 101 650C 660C FORMAT(1Al) WRITE(6,101) FORMAT(5X,*OKAY*) WRITE IN DATE AND TIME ON UNIT k 670C 680 690 700 710 18 720C 730C INITIALIZE AND CHECK FOR NUMBER OF PATIENTS 7<t0C 750 56 760 770 780C 790C PUT INTRODUCTION TC NEW PATIENT IN HERE 800C 810 820 830 + 8<*0C 850C OD = DAT ER(D) 0TM=CLOCK(TM) WRITECffiB) NAME, D,TM FORMAT(I*»,lX,A10,lX,Ai0) NPAT=NPAT+i IF(NPAT .EQ.1) GO TO 57 IF(NPAT.GT.5) GO TO 58 WRITE(6,16) 16 F0RMAT(6X,*I WILL NOW GIVE YOU READINGS FOR A NEW PATIENT* IMTIALI2E FOR RUN 86QC 870 880 890 900 910C 57 DO 5k 1=1,3 DO 5k J = l,2 5k JM(I,J)=0 JD = 2 920C 930C 9kQ 950G 960C 970C LCOP FOR PATIENT DO 13 1=1,50 CHOOSE SYMFTOM AND ACT 980 990 100 0 1010 1020 1030 73 NPT=NP A. T IF(NPAT.LE.3) GO TO 73 NPT=hPAT-3 IF(NPAT.EO.5) NPT=3 MC=NC(NPT,I) IF(NFAT.GT.3) M0~2/M0 10<f0 1050 1060 1070 1080 1090 19 -6-^+— IF (NAME .LE.*+99. AND. NAME. GE.-«<9) GO TO 6<+ TI=(FLCAT<I)*30.)/60. WRITE(6,19) NOUT(MO),TI FCRMAT(////////////5X,A10,3X,*(*,F5.1,* HOURS HAVE PASSED)*) GO TC 6 5 WR,ITE(e,'i) NOUT(MO) SIR G E O R G E W I L L I A M S U N I V E R S I T Y C O M P U T E R C E N T E R 1H, 1100 4 FORMAT (////////////5X,A10) 1110C 1120C MONITOR MODELS AND K VALUES 1130C IF(MC.NE.JD) JM(3,JC)-0 1140 65 1150 55 1160 1170 1180 1190 1210C , 1220C 1230C 1240 1250 5 JD=MC IF(JC.EQ.2) JD=M0-3 JM(i,l)=JM(l,i)+JD JM(2,M0)=JM(2,M0)+1 JM(3,M0)=JM(3,MO)+i JO = MC REQUEST A NO READ DIAGNOSIS WRITE(6,5) FORMAT (3X,*OIAGN0SIS->) 1260 53 1270 1280 6 1290 1300 1310C 132OC S = RTIME(SO) READ(5,6) (INCI3),13=1,8) FORMAT (8Aid) P=RTI ME(SD) T=(P-S)/(10.**10 .) IDENTIFY DIAGNOSIS 1330C 1340 1350 136G 1370 1380 DO 7 J=l,2 IF(IMl).EG.NEXT) GO TO 56 I F ( I M l ) .EQ.NEND) GO TO 58 I F f l M l l .EG.NS) GO TO 59 IF(IN'd) .EG.MA(J)) GO TO 8 1390 7 CONTINUE 14Q0C 1410C WRITE GUT UNRECOGNIZED DIAGNOSIS AND PROMPT 1420C 1430 WRITER*,10) NAME, I, (IN < K) , K=i , 7) 1440 10 1450 1460 9 1465+ 1470 148QC 1490C 1500C 1510 59 1520 17 1530 1540C FORMAT (214, 7A10) : WRITE(6,9) FORMAT(5X,48HI D0N*T UNDERSTAND YOU, PLEASE ENTER REPLACEMENT ) GO TC 53 MONITOR S RESPONSE WRITE(4,17) NAME,NPAT ,1 ,MO,T,(<JM(I1,Ji),J1=1,2) ,11=1,3) FORMAT (14,213,12,F8.3,612) GO TC 13 RECORD DATA — 1550C— 1560C 1570 8 1580 11 1590C 1600C MONITOR DIAGNCSIS 1610C WRITE(4,11) NAME,NPAT,I,MO,T,( (JM(I1,J1),Jl = l,2),11 = 1,3) , J F0RMAT(I4,2I3,I2,F8.3,7I2) 1620 IF(I.LE.2) MK= 2/MK 1630C 1640C INCREASE K VALUE IF I IS TOO SMALL 1650C 1660 IF(I.GT.2) GO TO 56 1670 WRITE(6,21) SIR G E O R G E W I L L I A M S U N I V E R S I T Y \ ^ i C O M P U T E R C E N T E R 1680 21 FORMAT (6X,*Y0U HAVE GIVEN THE WRONG DIAGNOSIS*/ 1690+ 10X,*-YOUR PATIENT HAS DIED*) 1700 GO TC 56 1710 13 GONTINLE i i n 1720 WRITE<(L>20) 1730 20 FORMAT(6X,*Y0U HAVE TAKEN TOO LONG - THE PATIENT HAS DIED*/) 17^0 GO TC 56 1750 58 WRITE(6,15) 1760 15 FORMAT<6X,*THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME*) 1765 REWIND h 1770 S^-QP , 1780 END SIR G E O R G E W I L L I A M S U N I V E R S I T Y C O M P U T E R C E N T E R APPENDIX F.B. DATA RECORDED 'BY MACHINE FOR SUBJECT NUMBER 20 INFORMATION RECORDED IN THE FOLLOWING FORMAT t 1. EXPERIMENT NUMBER 2. PATIENT NUMBER 2. TRIAL NUMBER k. MACHINE RESPONSE (SYMPTOM) 1 = HIGH BP 2 = LCfe BP 5. LATENCY OF SUBJECT RESPONSE 6. K VALUE FOR DIFFERENCE MODEL 7. NO INFORM ATI C 6. AND 9. K VALUES FOR THE TWO SUBSYSTEMS OF THE SIMPLE ACCUMULATOR MODEL 10. AN-D 1 1 . K VALUES FOR THE TWO SUBSYSTEMS OF THE RUNS MODEL 12. SUBJECT DIAGNOSIS! 1 = ANEUROPHASIA 2 ~ NEUROPHASIA 419 7 3 / 0 7 / 0 9 . 419 1 1 1 35.232 1 C 1 0 1 0 419 1 2 2 28.521 0 0 1 1 0 1 419 1 3 2 26.844-1 0 1 2 0 2 419 2 1 1 21.810 1 0 1 0 1 0 419 2 2 2 11.744 0 0 1 1 0 1 419 2 3 2 31.877-1 0 1 2 0 2 -44-3 3 1 1 16.777 1 0 1 0 1 0 419 3 2 2 10.066 0 O 1 1 0 1 419 3 3 1 18.455 1 0 2 1 1 0 419 3 4 2 16.777 0 0 2 2 0 1 419 3 5 1 13.422 1 0 3 2 1 0 419 4 1 2 13.422-1 0 0 1 0 1 419 U, 2—1 11.7'i4 0 C 1 1 1 0 419 4 3 1 I E . 7 7 7 1 0 2 1 2 0 419 4 4 2 10 • T366 0 iO 2 2 0 1 419 4 5 1 15.099 1 0 3 2 1 0 419 4 6 1 11.744 2 0 4 2 2 0 419 5 1 2 13.««22-i 0 0 1 0 1 -44-9 5 2—1 15.0 99 0 0 1 1 1 0 419 5 3 2 13.422-1 0 1 2 0 1 419 5 4 1 15.099 0 0 2 2 1 0 419 5 5 2 10.066-1 0 2 3 0 1 419 5 6 1 20.133 0 0 3 3 1 0 1 C O M P U T E R C E N T E R 

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            data-media="{[{embed.selectedMedia}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
https://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0093505/manifest

Comment

Related Items