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The development and use of social accounts as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of community services… Jessup, John Alan 1975

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THE DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF SOCIAL ACCOUNTS AS A MEANS OF EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COMMUNITY SERVICES A Case Study of the Vancouver Police Department by John Alan Jessup B.A. , University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1967 M.A., University of Western Ontario, 1968 A Thesis Submitted i n P a r t i a l Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts i n the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard Gordon W. Stead Robert W. C o l l i e r THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1975 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e fo r reference and study. I f u r t h e r agree t h a t permiss ion for ex tens i ve copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be a l lowed wi thout my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . -Department of The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada i i ABSTRACT The scope for physical planning and development i n many older, more established c i t i e s i n North America i s rapidly declining. In these c i t i e s , the role of the planner i s s h i f t i n g to meet a new challenge, the improvement of the quality of l i f e . One of the p r i n c i p a l methods of improving the quality o f l i f e i n c i t i e s has been the provision of community services. This i s r e s u l t i n g i n a new role for the planner, that of monitoring and evaluating the e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness of community services. The police service was taken as a vehicle for developing a method of evaluation for any community service i n any c i t y . The thesis i d e n t i f i e s major police functions and assigns them to the police programs they are capable of supporting. A set of performance accounts i s developed for each program consisting of input, output and impact accounts. The Input Account describes the resources allocated to each police program. The Output Account describes the productivity of these resources i n carrying out the police functions. And, the Impact Account describes the effectiveness of these functions i n bringing about the desired improvement i n the quality of l i f e . Moreover, the quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of input, output and impact contained i n the accounts are related to f i v e central questions of program evaluation. Furthermore, the indicators of input, output and impact contained i n the accounts are the data from which a mathematical model of the police organization, the community and the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between them can be constructed. This model w i l l have the predictive power of a n t i c i p a t i n g the outcome o f proposed i i i allocative decisions i n advance of their actual implementation. Thus, the thesis develops a method not only for evaluating the past performance of previous allocative decisions but the anticipated performance of proposed allocative decisions as well. Gordon W. Stead Robert W. Collier i v TABLE OF CONTENTS. Page L i s t of Tables v i M L i s t of Figures i x Acknowledgement PREFACE 1 The Problem . . . . . 1 The Focus of this Study 3 The Community Service Chosen for Study . . 4 Benefits L i k e l y to Accrue from the Study 4 The Relationship of the Study to Community Planning . . . 6 Overview of the Study 7 CHAPTER.1: Social Indicators as a Tool for Program Evaluation 1.1 Social Indicators Defined . . . 9 1.2 From Social Indicators to Social Accounting Systems 11 1.3 Social Accounting as a Means of Evaluation and Prediction . . . 12 1.4 The Process of Program Evaluation . 12 1.5 The Relationship between Program Evaluation and the A l l o c a t i v e Decision 16 1.6 Concluding Remarks 22 CHAPTER 2: The Methodology for Program Evaluation 2.1 Introduction 24 2.2 Methodology: Phase 1 25 2.3 Methodology: Phase 2 25 2.4 Methodology: Phase 3 . 28 TABLE OF CONTENTS ( C o n t ' d ) P a8 e 2.5 M e t h o d o l o g y : P h a s e 4 37 2.6 M e t h o d o l o g y : P h a s e 5 44 2.7 C o n c l u d i n g R e m a r k s 44 CHAPTER 3: P r o g r a m G o a l s a n d F u n c t i o n s o f t h e V a n c o u v e r P o l i c e 3.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 47 3.2 T r a d i t i o n a l P o l i c e G o a l s 47 3.3 G o a l s o f t h e V a n c o u v e r P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t 51 3.4 F u n c t i o n s o f t h e V a n c o u v e r P o l i c e D e p a r t m e n t 53 3.5 P o l i c e F u n c t i o n s A s s i g n e d t o P r o g r a m s 58 3.6 C o n c l u d i n g R e m a r k s . . . . 61 CHAPTER 4 : T h e I n p u t A c c o u n t f o r P o l i c e P r o g r a m s a n d t h e i r S u p p o r t i n g F u n c t i o n s 4.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 63 4.2 The S i g n i f i c a n c e o f I n d i c a t o r s o f I n p u t f o r t h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f P e r f o r m a n c e A c c o u n t s f o r P o l i c e 64 4.3 P r o p o s e d E n t r i e s f o r t h e I n p u t A c c o u n t s 65 4.4 A r e a s i n N e e d o f F u r t h e r R e f i n e m e n t a n d R e s e a r c h . . . . 79 4.5 C o n c l u d i n g R e m a r k s 80 CHAPTER 5: The C r i m e P r e v e n t i o n P r o g r a m a n d I t s S u p p o r t i n g F u n c t i o n s 5.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 82 5.2 P r o p o s e d E n t r i e s f o r t h e O u t p u t A c c o u n t . . . 83 5.3 P r o p o s e d E n t r i e s f o r t h e I m p a c t A c c o u n t 87 5.4 F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e C r i m e R a t e 93 5.5 F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e F r e q u e n c y o f C i t i z e n C o m p l a i n t 97 5.6 U s e a n d I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f I n p u t > O u t p u t a n d I m p a c t A c c o u n t s f o r t h e C r i m e P r e v e n t i o n P r o g r a m 99 TABLE OF CONTENTS(Cont'd) Page 5.7 Areas of Further Refinement and Research 105 5.8 Concluding Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 CHAPTER 6: The Public Safety Program and I t s Supporting Functions 6.1 Introduction 107 6.2 Proposed Entries for the Output Account . . . .109 6.3 Proposed Entries for the Impact Account 124 6.4 Use and Interpretation of the Input, Output and Impact Accounts for the Public Safety Program 138 6.5 Areas of Further Refinement and Research 153 6.6 Concluding Remarks 154 CHAPTER 7: The Apprehension and Recovery Program and It s Supporting Functions 7.1 Introduction 155 7.2 Proposed Entries for the Output Account 158 7.3 Proposed Entries for the Impact Account 169 7.4 Use and Interpretation of the Input, Output and Impact Accounts for the Apprehension and Recovery Program 173 7.5 Concluding Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 CHAPTER 8: General Summary and Conclusions 190 * * * * BIBLIOGRAPHY 193 VITA 197 ,,vii LIST OF TABLES Page 2.1 Conceptual Structure of Po l i c e Programs 26 2.2 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Public Safety Program, C i t i z e n Complaint Function . . . . . . 41 4.1 1973 Operating Budget, Vancouver P o l i c e Department 67 4.2 1971 Operating Budget, Metropolitan Toronto Police Department 68 4.3 Charge-Out Rates for Three Sp e c i f i c Items i n the Direct Expense Entry of the Input Accounts 75 4.4 The Existing Format of the Direct Expense Entry i n Vancouver Police Department Accounts 76 4.5 The Proposed Format for the Direct Expense Entry i n Vancouver Police Department Accounts 77 5.1 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Crime Prevention Program, Preventive P a t r o l Function: Granville Street Area, January 1 to March 31, 1974 100 5.2 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Crime Prevention Program, Preventive P a t r o l Function: Granville Street Area, A p r i l 1 to June 30, 1974 . 101 5.3 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Crime Prevention Program, Preventive P a t r o l Function: Granville Street Area, July 1 to September 30, 1974 104 6.1 Average Daily Call-load for "A S h i f t " (8:00 to 16:00 Hours) by P o l i c e D i s t r i c t 110 6.2 Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Adequacy of Pol i c e Coverage by Type of C a l l 122 6.3 Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Seriousness of Physical Injury Resulting from Crime 126 6.4 Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Seriousness of Property Loss Resulting from Crime . 127 6.5 Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Seriousness of Psychological Shock Resulting from Crime . 128 6.6 Elements of Criminal Events Weighted on a Magnitude Scale of Seriousness by Policemen, University Students and Court Judges 129 v i i i LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd) Page 6.7 Elements of Criminal Events Weighted on a Magnitude Scale of Seriousness by University Students from Eight Different Countries 132 6.8 Calculation of the Public Safety Margin for Robbery . . . . 134 6.9 Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Degree of Public S a t i s f a c t i o n Derived from Po l i c e Service . . . . 136 6.10 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Public Safety Program, C i t i z e n Complaint Function: D i s t r i c t 1, January 1 to March 31, 1974 . . . . 141 6.11 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Public Safety Program, C i t i z e n Complaint Function: D i s t r i c t 1, A p r i l 1 to June 30, 1974 . . . . . . 147 6.12 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Public Safety Program, C i t i z e n Complaint Function: D i s t r i c t 1, July 1 to September 30, 1974 . . . . 151 7.1 Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Degree of Completeness of the Investigation Function 166 7.2 Proposed Indicators of Output for the Investigation Function 167 7.3 Proposed Indicators of Output for the Preventive P a t r o l Function 169 7.4 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Apprehension and Recovery Program, C i t i z e n Complaint, Investigation and Preventive P a t r o l Functions: D i s t r i c t 1, January 1 to March 31, 1974 . . . . 180 7.5 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Apprehension and Recovery Program, C i t i z e n Complaint, Investigation and Preventive P a t r o l Functions: D i s t r i c t 1, A p r i l 1 to June 30, 1974 185 7.6 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Apprehension and Recovery Program, C i t i z e n Complaint, Investigation and Preventive P a t r o l Functions: D i s t r i c t 1, July 1 to September 30, 1974 . . . 187 LIST OF FIGURES Page 1.1 Optimum A l l o c a t i o n of Operating Budget between Manpower and Equipment to Maximize Output of the C i t i z e n Complaint Function 18 1.2 Optimum A l l o c a t i o n of Resources between the Preventive P a t r o l Function and the Public Education Function to Maximize Impact of the Crime Prevention Program 19 1.3 Optimum A l l o c a t i o n of Resources between the Crime Prevention Program and the Apprehension and Recovery Program to Maximize Social Welfare Generated by Police Operations 21 2.1 A n a l y t i c a l Framework for the Study of Pol i c e Functions . . . . 26 2.2 The Relationship between Indicators of Input, Output and Impact and the Five Central Questions of Program Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . ... . . . . 39 3.1 The C r i t e r i o n for Assigning a Function to a Po l i c e Program 60 5.1 Social Linkages i n the Prevention of Crime 90 7.1 P r o f i l e of Crime: A Comparison between Police D i s t r i c t s 1 and 3, Percentage Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n for the Period January 1, 1973 to December 31, 1974 175 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author wishes to acknowledge the co-operation of the Vancouver P o l i c e Department in conducting the survey of t h e i r organization which made th i s study possible. While many members of the Department contributed to the study, the following members were of p a r t i c u l a r assistance: Deputy Chief A.E. Olive r , Super-intendent T. Herdman, Inspector I.B. Bailey, Sergeant J. Swan, and Systems Analyst R. Hartman. The author also wishes to thank his advisors Gordon W. Stead and Robert W. C o l l i e r for t h e i r useful comments and c r i t i c i s m . PREFACE The Problem Today planners face a major challenge. How can they accurately predict the multi-dimensional impact of plans, programs and p o l i c i e s upon urban residents and their quality of l i v i n g ? For example, a planner working for a municipal government may be call e d upon to draw up a set of recommendations for the reorganization of police services i n a pa r t i c u l a r d i s t r i c t of the c i t y . One of his i n i t i a l problems would be to determine the present e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness of exi s t i n g services and to estimate what consequences would l i k e l y result i f they were to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y altered or extended. Planners working at other levels of government and concerned with other kinds of community services are faced with s i m i l a r problems. Community planners, government o f f i c i a l s and p o l i t i c i a n s recognized the need for an improved information system to s a t i s f y these requirements. During the l a s t decade, they have made a concerted e f f o r t to develop more accurate and comprehensive s t a t i s t i c s which could f a c i l i t a t e the comparison of actual performance against previously stated goals and objectives. While t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l e f f o r t s were extremely diverse i n scope and method, they had a common purpose. Their primary aim was to provide decision makers with a broad array of s o c i a l , economic, physical and psychological indicators that would allow them to monitor and, i f possible, predict the outcome of plans, programs and p o l i c i e s upon the quality of l i f e . Their e f f o r t s s t i l l continue. The Social Indicator Movement Most societies have developed some type of information system as an aid to formulating public policy and making decisions. S p e c i f i c interest i n 2 generating multi-dimensional indicators as the essential ingredient of such a system, however, i s r e l a t i v e l y new. This recent momentum to develop more comprehensive measures of s o c i e t a l progress has been labelled "the s o c i a l indicator movement" (Brooks, 1972). The term " s o c i a l indicator" was coined by a team of s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s headed by Raymond Bauer to be analogous to the term "economic indicator". The word " s o c i a l " , however, i s actually a misnomer. Social indicators are much more comprehensive. They encompass not merely the s o c i a l dimension of l i f e , but the economic, the physical, and the psychological dimensions as w e l l . Since the i n i t i a l benchmark publication of Bauer's Social Indicators i n 1966, and Gross' Social Intelligence for America's Future i n 1969, numerous writers have contributed to the vast and growing body of l i t e r a t u r e which addresses the problems of s o c i e t a l monitoring and, ultimately, s o c i e t a l control. I t i s not surprising, therefore, that the claims of the s o c i a l indicator movement are equally numerous. These include improving the descriptive reporting of s o c i a l problems, developing a balance sheet for s o c i a l agencies, analysing s o c i a l trends and s o c i a l change, assessing s o c i e t a l performance, antic i p a t i n g alternative s o c i a l futures, s e t t i n g s o c i e t a l goals and p r i o r i t i e s , acquiring s o c i o - s c i e n t i f i c knowledge for prediction and control, and the continuous monitoring of the quality of l i f e (Brooks, 1972). More recently, however, these various themes have coalesced into four areas of s p e c i a l i z a t i o n : (1) descriptive reporting, (2) program evaluation, (3) planned development and (4) s o c i e t a l control (Brooks, 1972). 3 The Focus of th i s Study This study i s concerned with the second and fourth areas of s p e c i a l i z a t i o n within the s o c i a l indicator movement: program evaluation and s o c i e t a l control. The claim that s o c i a l indicators are an aid to program evaluation i s based upon an assumption. The assumption i s that s o c i a l indicators can provide the necessary data base for establishing a s o c i a l accounting system, capable of measuring s o c i a l costs and benefits, i n much the same way as t r a d i t i o n a l f i n a n c i a l accounting systems measure the expenditures and income of a corporation. I f th i s assumption i s r e a l i s t i c , s o c i a l accounts could enable public agencies to record not only the cost of providing community services, but the benefits generated by consumption of these services as w e l l . The claim that s o c i a l indicators are a to o l of s o c i e t a l control i s based upon a further assumption. This assumption i s that data contained i n s o c i a l accounts w i l l provide the raw materials from which mathematical models of a s o c i a l agency and i t s int e r a c t i o n with the community can be constructed. Such models w i l l enable planners to predict the optimal a l l o c a t i o n of the agency's resources, that i s , the d i s t r i b u t i o n of resources among an agency's functions that w i l l enable i t to achieve maximization of i t s goals and objectives. While these claims have received considerable attention i n the l i t e r a t u r e , there has been no general move afoot to demonstrate the f e a s i b i l i t y of these claims i n an i n s t i t u t i o n a l s etting. Moreover, l i t t l e work has been done to develop a methodology which would make such a demon-st r a t i o n possible. 4 In short, for over a decade now, the discussion of s o c i a l indicators has been r e s t r i c t e d to abstract philosophical and conceptual issues. There have been only incomplete and isolated attempts to define concepts i n a n a l y t i c a l terms and to tackle the p r a c t i c a l problems inherent i n thei r application. The Community Service Chosen for Study There are several important reasons why the Vancouver Po l i c e Department was chosen as the subject of study. F i r s t , i f the goals of public safety and public health are taken to be the foundation of our s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , then the P o l i c e Department as the agency of public safety i n the community i s w e l l q u a l i f i e d as a subject of evaluation and control. Furthermore, as the largest department i n the c i t y administration, i n terms of manpower and f i n a n c i a l budget, the Pol i c e Department i s the major community service provided by the municipal government. Moreover, because of the serious and l a s t i n g consequences to persons and property which res u l t from i n e f f e c t i v e police operations, the actions of police are continuously under close scrutiny by the public. And, l a s t l y , the Department i s currently assessing the inadequacies of i t s present information system with a view to improving not only the c o l l e c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n of strategic information for carrying out police functions i n the community, but also the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of s o c i a l indicators with which to assess and, ultimately, to predict the effectiveness of these functions i n achieving organizational goals and objectives. Benefits L i k e l y to Accrue from the Study The Vancouver Police Department i s probably one of the most competent police organizations i n Canada. Moreover, senior and middle management at the Department are s u f f i c i e n t l y enlightened and progressive i n t h e i r thinking to recognize the need for and p o t e n t i a l benefits to be derived from the development of s o c i a l indicators as a t o o l for evaluation and control. However, prior to i n i t i a t i o n of t h i s study, l i t t l e or no groundwork had been done towards the development of indicators, the d e f i n i t i o n of key concepts essential for program evaluation, the conceptualization of a s o c i a l accounting framework, or the development of scales, standards and objectives against which these indicators could be compared. In f a c t , a recent assessment of the e x i s t i n g information system at the Department concluded that even i n terms of c o l l e c t i n g and d i s t r i b u t i n g s t rategic information necessary to operate i n the f i e l d , there i s no systematic organization of intormation at a l l . And, i n p a r t i c u l a r , there i s l i t t l e or no information being developed for the evaluation of police programs or the formulation of police policy. Furthermore, t h i s assessment also revealed that l i t t l e work has been done to a r t i c u l a t e the mathematical models which could ultimately provide valuable guidance to planners attempting to maximize organizational goals and objectives. Development of a set of s o c i a l accounts for a public i n s t i t u t i o n such as the Vancouver Police Department w i l l have several possible benefits. It w i l l provide considerable insight into whether the claims of s o c i a l indicators, namely program evaluation and s o c i e t a l control, should be taken seriously or, a l t e r n a t i v e l y , abandoned. I t w i l l pinpoint areas of further research where theor e t i c a l knowledge does not meet the rigors of applied s o c i a l science. And, f i n a l l y , i t w i l l produce, even i f only p a r t i a l l y successful, a useful framework for the evaluation of police services and a p r a c t i c a l benchmark from which future refinement can begin. 6 The Relationship of the Study to Community Planning A frequent question i n any work of t h i s kind i s whether i t f a l l s within the j u r i s d i c t i o n of a p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d of study, i n t h i s case, community planning. Consequently, i t i s necessary to relate the study of program evaluation and s o c i e t a l control i n the context of the Vancouver Po l i c e Department to the f i e l d of community planning. In conceptual terms, a community can be perceived i n several i n t e r -related but nevertheless d i s t i n c t dimensions. While the precise name and scope of each dimension w i l l vary according to an individual's own experience, a representative paradigm of the community i s one developed by Harland (1971). He perceives the community i n four dimensions: s o c i a l , economic, physical and psychological. In a s i m i l a r manner, the subject matter of community planning may also be broken down into i d e n t i c a l components for purpose of analysis. One can therefore speak of s o c i a l planning, economic planning, physical planning, or (with s l i g h t modification of Harland's terminology) p o l i t i c a l planning. In the context of this perspective, the study of program evaluation and s o c i e t a l control in r e l a t i o n to the Vancouver Po l i c e Department can be seen as f a l l i n g within the realm of s o c i a l planning. As a d i s c i p l i n e , s o c i a l planning appears to have evolved from a synthesis between physical planning and s o c i a l work (Mayer, 1972). During the l a s t decade, both professions attempted to define their own p a r t i c u l a r strategies of intervention. Out of t h i s continuing dialogue, three accepted d e f i n i t i o n s of s o c i a l planning emerged. The f i r s t d e f i n i t i o n views s o c i a l planning as being concerned with the development and delivery of s o c i a l services to the community (Mayer, 1972). 7 The. second d e f i n i t i o n equates s o c i a l planning with the notion of comprehensiveness. In turn, t h i s idea usually implies the integration of a l l public programs which are designed to improve l i v i n g conditions i n the community. Such improvement i s often linked to some over-riding consideration such as s o c i a l welfare (Mayer, 1972). And, f i n a l l y , the t h i r d d e f i n i t i o n sees s o c i a l planning as being the advocacy of the interest of disadvantaged minorities (Mayer, 1972). If these are the legitimate and v a l i d areas of concern of s o c i a l planning, as currently envisaged today, then program evaluation and s o c i e t a l control i n r e l a t i o n to the Vancouver Po l i c e Department f a l l within the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the f i r s t and second d e f i n i t i o n s . In the f i r s t instance, police programs are obviously a s o c i a l service. And, i n the second instance, the purpose of program evaluation and s o c i e t a l control i s to monitor and, ultimately, to predict the effect of police programs upon the s o c i a l welfare of the community. Overview of the Study The study i s presented i n eight chapters. Chapter 1 i s the introduction. It defines the terms s o c i a l indicators, s o c i a l accounting, s o c i a l accounting systems, program evaluation, s o c i e t a l control and resource a l l o c a t i o n . I t also explains the relationship between program evaluation and resource a l l o c a t i o n for the s o c i a l agency and, furthermore, suggests how data contained in s o c i a l accounts can be used to construct mathematical models which may ultimately predict the outcome of a l t e r n a t i v e a l l o c a t i v e decisions. Chapter 2 contains a detailed description of the methodology employed in the study. I t also defines the three types of accounts - input, output 8 and impact - necessary for evaluating police programs and predicting the outcome of alter n a t i v e a l l o c a t i v e decisions. Furthermore, i t provides d e f i n i t i o n s of the key concepts which are necessary to i d e n t i f y and interpret the s o c i a l indicators contained i n the accounts. Chapter 3 describes the three major programs of the Vancouver Po l i c e Department: crime prevention, public safety and apprehension and recovery programs. I t also formulates the goals of each program and i d e n t i f i e s those police functions through which each set of goals may be attained. Chapter 4 i d e n t i f i e s the entries and presents the format for the input account of police programs. A detailed i l l u s t r a t i o n of the use and interpretation of the input account i s postponed, however, u n t i l the following three chapters which provide a consolidated treatment of a l l three accounts -input, output and impact - i n the context of each program. This i s a l o g i c a l organization of the material, since the input, output and impact accounts for each program must be considered together. Chapters 5, 6 and 7 deal with the development of output and impact accounts for the crime prevention, public safety and apprehension and recovery programs, respectively, of the Vancouver Police Department. For each program, the entries and format of the output and impact accounts are described, a p r a c t i c a l i l l u s t r a t i o n of the use and interpretation of the consolidated accounts i s given, and areas of future refinement and research are i d e n t i f i e d . F i n a l l y , Chapter 8 provides a general summary of the study, i t s major conclusions and the d i r e c t i o n future research should take. 9 CHAPTER 1 SOCIAL INDICATORS AS A TOOL FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION 1.1 Social Indicators Defined Like most jargon used i n the s o c i a l sciences, the term " s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s " has been subjected to various interpretations and as a result has become ambiguous. For this reason, i t i s necessary to set forth the s p e c i f i c interpretation of the term as used i n th i s thesis. The word " s o c i a l " i s taken as meaning "of or r e l a t i n g to the welfare of human beings as members of society" (Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary, 1973). The word "indicator", on the other hand, i s taken as meaning "a sign, symptom or index of a serious condition" (Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary, 1973). Thus, for purposes of th i s thesis, s o c i a l indicators are interpreted as being signs, symptoms or indices of the welfare of human beings as members of society. I t i s clear from t h i s d e f i n i t i o n of s o c i a l indicators that human welfare i s the focus of attention. Consequently, when approaching the subject of s o c i a l indicators as a t o o l for program evaluation of the Vancouver Police Department, two important c o r o l l a r i e s must be recognized. These are the notions of comprehensiveness and of r e l a t i v i t y . F i r s t , s o c i a l indicators are comprehensive. This means that i n order to provide an accurate and balanced picture of the human condition, s o c i a l 10 indicators must be multi-dimensional. In p a r t i c u l a r , they must not be re s t r i c t e d to the economic dimension of l i f e , but must also encompass the s o c i a l , the physical and the psychological dimensions as w e l l . Let us take as an example, the impact of a crime upon the vic t i m . Three d i s t i n c t dimensions of the victim's welfare may have been affected. These are the physical, the economic and the psychological. The physical i n the sense that the vi c t i m may have suffered physical injury. The economic i n the sense that the vi c t i m may have experienced loss of or damage to his personal property. And, psychological i n the sense that the v i c t i m may have undergone an unpleasant to h o r r i f y i n g experience during the progress of the crime which may have a l a s t i n g effect upon his psychological well-being. Admittedly, once having isolated the i n d i v i d u a l dimensions of impact upon the victim, the analyst i s i n a better position to translate the t o t a l effect of the crime into purely economic terms. But the philosophy of the s o c i a l indicator movement stresses that t h i s temptation should be avoided (Bauer, 1966 and Gross, 1969). Second, s o c i a l indicators are r e l a t i v e . This means that i n order for s o c i a l indicators to have a useful interpretation they must be related to a scale, a standard, an objective, or some other base of comparison. For example, an index must be related to a scale, a measure must be related to a standard, and a statement, of where we are must be related to where we want to go. As an example, l e t us take the case of the length of time police require to respond to a c i t i z e n ' s request for assistance. In terms of police jargon, t h i s length of time i s referred to as "response time". Assuming the technical problem of obtaining t h i s information has been overcome, l e t us suppose that 11 average response time for p r i o r i t y one c a l l s (types of c a l l , such as "robbery i n progress", are grouped according to th e i r degree of seriousness into p r i o r i t i e s one, two and three) was found to be 7.5 minutes. I f one has no standard against which to compare t h i s indicator, i t ceases to have any useful significance for program evaluation. An indicator, such as response time, must be compared to some notion of what i s desirable or expected for i t to have a useful role i n assessing police performance. I f , for instance, one has decided (on the basis of some feasible and desirable c r i t e r i a ) that average response time for p r i o r i t y one c a l l s should be 5.0 minutes, then, quite c l e a r l y , the performance indicator has immediate implications. The acceptable standard i s not being met. And, remedial action must be taken i n order to improve average response time. 1.2 From Social Indicators to Social Accounting Systems In t h i s thesis, s o c i a l accounts are merely defined as being an orderly arrangement or l o g i c a l organization of s o c i a l indicators i n terms of some conceptual or schematic framework. The purpose of the arrangement or organization i s simply to promote and f a c i l i t a t e the l o g i c a l and useful i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of indicators as an aid to program evaluation. The notion of s o c i a l accounting systems i s introduced i n order to place the scope of the study i n the broader perspective of the Criminal Justice System and society as a whole. In terms of s o c i a l systems analysis, the Vancouver Police Department i s the Enforcement Subsystem of the Criminal Justice System. The other two components of the Criminal Justice System, which are beyond the scope of th i s study, are the Court and Corrections Sub-systems. Although, the Enforcement and Court Subsystems do interface i n our 12 discussion of the police apprehension and recovery program i n Chapter 7. 1.3 Social Accounting as a Means of Evaluation and Prediction The underlying purpose of the study i s not only the development of s o c i a l accounts for the Police Department, but also the use of s o c i a l accounts to monitor and, ultimately, to predict the effectiveness of a l l o c a t i v e decisions. In th i s r o l e , s o c i a l accounts are often referred to as performance accounts. Whether one i s monitoring the effectiveness of past a l l o c a t i v e decisions, or predicting the effectiveness of proposed a l l o c a t i v e decisions, the central questions of program evaluation remain the same. The difference l i e s not i n the process, but the manner i n which the values i n the accounts are developed. In the case of evaluating past a l l o c a t i v e decisions, the values i n the accounts are obtained from an information system. In the case of evaluating proposed a l l o c a t i v e decisions, the values i n the accounts are obtained from a mathematical model based on past values displayed i n the accounts. Apart from t h i s difference, and i n no way should one discount the significance of t h i s difference, the process of evaluation remains the same. In short, the questions are the same, the concepts are the same. But their use and interpretation are d i f f e r e n t . 1.4 The Process of Program Evaluation This study must do more than merely i d e n t i f y indicators of pol i c e performance. I t must also construct a s o c i a l accounting framework that w i l l 13 f a c i l i t a t e program evaluation, define the central questions of program evaluation, develop the scales, standards and objectives against which these indicators can be compared, interpret the indicators so as to gain useful insights into the operation of the police organization, and f i n a l l y , suggest what appropriate remedial action should be taken to improve performance. Therefore, t h i s study attempts a far more ambitious task than merely i d e n t i f y i n g an array of indicators which can, i n some way, shape or form, be related to the Criminal J u s t i c e System. One of the early tasks of th i s study, as indicated above, i s to define the central questions of program evaluation. For, as was mentioned i n a previous discussion, regardless of whether one i s evaluating the effectiveness of former a l l o c a t i v e decisions or predicting the effectiveness of proposed a l l o c a t i v e decisions, the questions of program evaluation remain the same. But before these central questions can be defined, i t i s necessary to understand both the int e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p between a program and the functions through which i t can obtain i t s goals, and between the three types of accounts - input, output and impact accounts - necessary for program evaluation. After the police functions have been i d e n t i f i e d , they are grouped together according to the goals which they can support. Together, the set of functions which support a common goal are defined to be a program. (For a more complete discussion of t h i s process, the reader i s referred to Chapter 3, Section 3.5, pages 58 to 61.) The relationship between the input, output and impact accounts i s also c r i t i c a l to an understanding of the central questions of program evaluation. Input refers to the resources of the organization which are allocated to a pa r t i c u l a r function. These resources may be manpower, equipment or some other 14 s p e c i f i c commodity. Output, on the other hand, refers to the physical or i n t e l l e c t u a l a c t i v i t i e s which comprise an i n d i v i d u a l function. A function consists of one or more a c t i v i t i e s which frequently occur i n a l o g i c a l sequence or natural order. These a c t i v i t i e s are the output of the function. F i n a l l y , impact refers to the effectiveness of the functions supporting a pa r t i c u l a r program i n achieving the goals of that program. In b r i e f , the central questions of program evaluation can be defined i n terms of the resources allocated to functions supporting the program (information to be contained within the input account), the productivity of those resources i n carrying out the functions (the information to be contained within the output account), and the effectiveness of these functions i n achieving the goals of the program (the information to be contained within the impact account). There appear to be f i v e central questions pertinent to program evaluation. These are l i s t e d below i n the order i n which they are usually asked: 1. Is the program achieving i t s goals, and i f so, to what degree? 2. What i s the program's impact e f f i c i e n c y , that i s , the relationship between resources allocated to the functions supporting the program and the program's effectiveness? 3. Are the functions supporting the program att a i n i n g their operating  objectives, and i f so, to what extent? 4. What i s the output e f f i c i e n c y of each function supporting the program, that i s , what i s the relationship between the resources allocated to each function and the productivity of that function? and 5 . What i s the effectiveness of each function supporting the program, that i s , what i s the relationship between the productivity of each 15 function and the contribution of that function towards the goals of the program? In terms of a program's input, output and impact, the f i v e c e ntral questions of program evaluation can be readily answered. The degree to which e program i s achieving i t s goals (desirable impact) i s determined by comparing actual impact against desirable impact. A program's impact e f f i c i e n c y , the relationship between the resources allocated to the program and the degree to which the program i s achieving i t s goals, i s determined by comparing input to actual impact. The extent to which a function i s a t t a i n i n g i t s operating . objectives (desirable output) i s determined by comparing actual output against desirable output. A function's output e f f i c i e n c y , the relationship between the resources allocated to the function and the productivity of those resources i s determined by comparing input with actual output. And, f i n a l l y , a function' effectiveness, the relationship between the productivity of that function and the contribution i t makes towards achieving program goals, i s determined by comparing actual output with actual impact. In order to i l l u s t r a t e the p r a c t i c a l implications of these questions, l e t us examine the public education function of the crime prevention program. The goal of t h i s program, as i t s name implies, i s the prevention of crime. The public education function may be considered as one of several a l t e r n a t i v e strategies which can be employed to achieve t h i s goal. As a s p e c i f i c case, l e t us take the project of d i s t r i b u t i n g crime prevention pamphlets to West End Vancouver residents on the ways and means of discouraging automobile thefts The t o t a l quantity of resources applied to this project was, i n terms of d o l l a r s and cents, $15,000. The operating objective of the project, that 16 i s , the desired output, was to d i s t r i b u t e these pamphlets to 30,000 residents of' the West End Vancouver area. The goal of the project, that i s , the desired impact, was to reduce the incidence of automobile theft i n the area from 150 to 100, over the s i x month period following termination of the project. The r e s u l t s , i n terms of the f i v e central questions of program evaluation were as follows. The goal of the project was exceeded. The reduction i n automobile thefts i n the area over the s i x month period after completion of the project declined from 150 to 75, a drop of 50 per cent. The project's impact e f f i c i e n c y , that i s , the r a t i o of input to impact, was $200.00 per automobile not stolen, or $15,000.00 divided by 75. Furthermore, the operating objective, that i s , desirable output, was f u l l y met. Pamphlets were di s t r i b u t e d to at least 30,000 residents of the West End. The project's output e f f i c i e n c y , that i s , the r a t i o of input to output, was $0.50 per pamphlet di s t r i b u t e d to residents, or $15,000.00 divided, by 30,000. And, f i n a l l y , the project's effectiveness, that i s , the r a t i o of output to impact, was 400 pamphlets delivered per automobile not stolen, or 30,000 divided by 75. T r a d i t i o n a l l y , s o c i a l indicators have been thought of as goal-related, or measures of impact (Bauer, 1966; Gross, 1967 and Harland, 1971). However, i t i s clear from the foregoing discussion that the f i v e central questions of program evaluation demand the development of not only measures of impact, but also measures of input and output as w e l l . In f a c t , only the f i r s t question of program evaluation can be answered with measures of impact alone. 1.5 The Relationship between Program Evaluation and the A l l o c a t i v e Decision Ultimately, i t must be recognized that even program evaluation i s merely a means to an end. And, i n the context of t h i s study, that end i s the optimum 17 a l l o c a t i o n of resources i n such a way as to maximize the benefits accruing to society from the Vancouver Po l i c e Department. This leads us to a discussion of the problem of resource a l l o c a t i o n . The f i n a l step i n the whole process of program evaluation i s the a l l o c a t i o n or r e - a l l o c a t i o n of resources i n s"uch a manner as to incur minimum costs while maintaining a given l e v e l of performance, or to operate at peak performance given a fixed l e v e l of expenditure. This a l l o c a t i o n decision exists at three dif f e r e n t levels within the Vancouver Po l i c e Department: (1) among alterna t i v e types or combinations of resources; (2) among alternative police functions; ar.d (3) among alterna t i v e police programs. In order to i l l u s t r a t e t his point, l e t us take an example of the a l l o c a t i v e decision at each l e v e l . Let us f i r s t consider the example of the a l l o c a t i v e decision between the diffe r e n t types of resources which can be applied to a p a r t i c u l a r police function. This problem i s analogous to that faced by the firm i n t r a d i t i o n a l micro-economic analysis. Figure 1.1 on the following page i l l u s t r a t e s this problem i n geometric form, an adaptation of a treatment of the problem by Baumol (1965). 18 FIGURE 1.1 Optimum Allocation of Operating Budget between Manpower and Equipment to Maximize Output of the C i t i z e n Complaint Function . 2 Units of Equipment Source: Baumol, 1965, p. 258, Figure 3 (a) The fixed cost budget l i n e defines those combinations of manpower and equipment which can be purchased for a fixed cost. The production indifference curves represent those combinations of manpower and equipment which produce a constant l e v e l of output. These levels of output increase upwards and to the r i g h t . The point of tangency between the highest order production indifference curve and the fixed cost budget l i n e determines that combination of manpower and equipment which w i l l produce the maximum output for a given budget. Similar i l l u s t r a t i o n s can be given to determining the optimum a l l o c a t i o n of resources at the two other levels of operation mentioned e a r l i e r , that i s , the a l l o c a t i o n of resources among the various functions used within the context of a p a r t i c u l a r police program, and the a l l o c a t i o n of resources among the 1 9 various police programs used within the context of the enforcement system. Let us now consider the a l l o c a t i v e decision between the preventive p a t r o l function and the public education function of the Crime Prevention Program. The question i s , given that the t o t a l annual budget for the crime prevention program during the forthcoming year i s $100,000, what i s the optimum a l l o c a t i o n of funds between the preventive p a t r o l and public education functions which w i l l y i e l d the maximum impact for the Crime Prevention Program. Figure 1.2 below i l l u s t r a t e s t h i s problem geometrically. I t i s an adaptation of a treatment of a similar, problem by Bator (1957). FIGURE 1.2 Optimum A l l o c a t i o n of Resources between the Preventive P a t r o l Function and the Public Education Function to Maximize Impact of the Crime Prevention Program  Units of Output of Preventive Pa t r o l Function X. I Isoimpact Curves Point of Tangency Production P o s s i b i l i t y Curve X, 2 Units of Output of Public Education Function Source: Bator, 1957 20 The production p o s s i b i l i t y curve consists of a locus of points determined by the maximum fea s i b l e combinations of output of preventive p a t r o l units and public education units. The isoimpact curves consist of the d i f f e r e n t , not necessarily f e a s i b l e (only those combinations which l i e w ithin or upon the production p o s s i b i l i t y curve are f e a s i b l e ) , combinations of preventive p a t r o l output and public education output which w i l l t h e o r e t i c a l l y y i e l d the same degree of impact for the Crime Prevention Program. These isoimpact curves represent increasing degrees of impact as they extend upward and to the r i g h t . The point of tangency between the production p o s s i b i l i t y curve and the highest order isoimpact curve determines the optimum a l l o c a t i o n of police resources between the two functions to maximize the impact of the Crime Prevention Program. In terms of the Figure, • X± units of output of the preventive patrol function, and X 2 units of output of the public education function should be produced i n order to maximize the impact of the Crime Prevention Program. Since the cost of each unit of each function i s known, the a l l o c a t i o n of funds between the two functions i s eas i l y determined. F i n a l l y , l e t us consider the example of the a l l o c a t i v e decision among two police programs, the Apprehension and Recovery Program and the Crime Prevention Program. Figure 1.3 on the following page i l l u s t r a t e s geometrically the nature of this decision. 21 FIGURE 1.3 Optimum A l l o c a t i o n of Resources between the Crime Prevention and Apprehension and Recovery Programs to Maximize Social Welfare Generated by Police Operations X£ Levels of Impact of Apprehension and Recovery Program Source: Bator, 1957 The impact p o s s i b i l i t y curve represents the diff e r e n t f e a s i b l e combinations of maximum impact of the crime prevention and apprehension and recovery programs. The s o c i a l welfare curves represent the diff e r e n t levels of s o c i a l welfare which can be attained through d i f f e r e n t combinations of crime prevention and criminal apprehension levels of impact. The point of tangency between the impact p o s s i b i l i t y curve and the highest order s o c i a l welfare curve determines the impact levels of each program which w i l l y i e l d the maximum welfare to society. This i s a s l i g h t modification of a treatment of th i s problem by Bator (1957). I t i s quite conceivable that t h i s stage of refinement and sop h i s t i c a t i o n i n program evaluation and resource a l l o c a t i o n w i l l not be attained for many 22 years to come. I t i s perhaps the ro l e of s o c i a l indicators i n th i s evolutionary science of program evaluation to provide public policy and decision-makers with greater insights into the true nature and extent of the s o c i a l costs and benefits upon which t h i s type of analysis i s based. Admittedly, the concepts presented here are at a high l e v e l of abstraction and are mathematically complex, p a r t i c u l a r l y i f one deals beyond the r e l a t i v e l y simple two-by-two case. Nevertheless, i t i s important to understand the ultimate goals of the evaluation process i n terms of the broad concepts which t h i s treatment contains. And, furthermore, i t i s important to recognize that the s o c i a l indicator movement i s dedicated to developing the more accurate and comprehensive estimates of costs and benefits which are necessary to operationalize these concepts. 1.6 Concluding Remarks This chapter has provided the background information necessary to understand the chapters which follow. Social indicators have been defined as the entries contained i n s o c i a l accounts. S o c i a l accounts can be broken down into three separate accounts which have been cal l e d the input, output and impact accounts. The input account provides information about the resources allocated to programs. The output account provides information about the productivity of these resources. And, the impact account provides information about the degree to which programs are achieving t h e i r goals. 23 The development of s o c i a l accounts for community service organizations is an important step towards monitoring and predicting the effectiveness of a l l o c a t i v e decisions. The process of determining the effectiveness of a l l o c a t i v e decisions i s called program evaluation. This process attempts to answer f i v e central questions which remain the same whether one evaluates the actual effect of a past decision or the predicted effect of a proposed a l l o c a t i v e decision. These f i v e central questions are i n e x t r i c a b l y related to the information contained i n the input, output and impact accounts of a program. Answering the f i v e central questions of program evaluation provides insights which lead to an improved a l l o c a t i o n of resources which i s the ultimate purpose of the exercise. The next chapter ^provides a detailed description and explanation of the methodology employed i n the study. 24 CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION 2.1 Introduction The a n a l y t i c a l tools which were used to develop s o c i a l accounts for the Vancouver Police Department were drawn from several key areas i n the l i t e r a t u r e , such as management science, planning theory, program budgeting, s o c i a l systems analysis, and s o c i a l indicator theory and research. Several d i s t i n c t a n a l y t i c a l phases were involved i n the development of s o c i a l accounts for police. These were: 1. the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of police programs and the formulation of program goals. 2. the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of police functions and their assignment to par t i c u l a r police programs 3. the development of s o c i a l accounting concepts and the analysis of functions for indicators of input, output and impact A. the d e f i n i t i o n of the five central questions of program evaluation i n terms of indicators of input, output and impact and 5. the interpretation of s o c i a l accounts for each police program and the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of areas i n need of further refinement 25 2.2 Methodology: Phase 1 The f i r s t phase of the study consisted of i d e n t i f y i n g the programs of the Vancouver Police Department and formulating program goals. The overriding mission of the Vancouver Police Department was taken to be public safety. Under the banner of public safety, the Department operated three programs: (1) the Crime Prevention Program, (2) the Public Safety Program, and (3) the Apprehension and Recovery Program. For each of these programs, a series of goals were formulated, partly on the basis of discussions with senior o f f i c e r s of the Department, and partly on the basis of a perusal of current l i t e r a t u r e on the subject. For example, the goals of the public safety program were formulated to be: (1) to protect persons from injury, (2) to aid persons i n need of assistance, (3) to secure property against theft, (4) to protect property from damage, and (5) to maintain public order. The findings of t h i s phase of the study are contained i n Chapter 3. 2.3 Methodology: Phase 2 The second phase of the study involved the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of police functions and thei r assignment to p a r t i c u l a r police programs. The f i r s t step i n phase 2 of the methodology was to determine, from a 26 purely conceptual point of view, the structure of programs at the Department. I t was necessary, i n other words, to develop some pre-conceived notion of what was being looked f o r . Consequently, the hypothetical program structure, presented below i n Table 2.1, was postulated to exist at the Department. TABLE 2.1 Program Structure at the Vancouver Police Department I. Programs A. Functions 1. A c t i v i t i e s Thus, each program at the Department was seen to contain various police functions which, i n some cases, might be thought of as a l t e r n a t i v e strategies for achieving the goals of the program. And, i n turn, each police function was seen to be comprised of one or more a c t i v i t i e s which, i n some cases, might occur i n a l o g i c a l sequence or natural order. For example, the Crime Prevention Program was ultimately seen to contain the public education, the youth counselling, the community r e l a t i o n s , the preventive p a t r o l and the enforcement functions. And, these functions were such that they could be legitimately considered as a l t e r n a t i v e strategies to achieve the goal of crime prevention. In addition, the enforcement function, for example, was seen to be comprised of several a c t i v i t i e s which occur in a natural order: (1) observation of an offense, (2) apprehension of the offender, (3) investigation of the offense, and (4) w r i t i n g a formal report on the incident. 27 The second step i n phase 2 of the methodology was to survey a l l a c t i v i t i e s of the Vancouver Police Department and to i d e n t i f y the police functions which these a c t i v i t i e s represented. Ideally, each function was to be defined i n such a way that i t would be mutually exclusive of a l l other functions when considered independently, and mutually exhaustive with a l l other functions when considered i n combination. These conditions were imposed so that i f each function were to become an entry i n a s o c i a l account for police, the t r a d i t i o n a l f i n a n c i a l accounting c r i t e r i a of mutually exclusive and exhaustive entries would be upheld. The police functions i d e n t i f i e d as a resul t of the study are l i s t e d below: 1. C i t i z e n Complaint 2. Enforcement 3. Investigation 4. Preventive P a t r o l 5. Crowd Control 6. Escort Duty 7. C i v i l Disaster Co-ordination 8. Youth Counselling 9. Public Education 10. Community P o l i c i n g A detailed description of each function may be found i n Chapter 3, Section 3.4, pages 53 to 58. 28 2.4 Methodology: Phase 3 This phase of the methodology was concerned with the development of s o c i a l accounting concepts and the analysis of functions for indicators of input, output and impact. Thus f a r , the programs of the Department had been i d e n t i f i e d and program goals had been formulated. In addition, the functions of the Department had also been i d e n t i f i e d and assigned to those programs whose goals they could support. I t was recognized at this point, however, that the programs were merely a framework within which the functions were grouped. Therefore, only the functions themselves were the means through which program goals could be attained. This implied that the functions, not the programs, must become the r e a l focus of attention during this phase of the study. Several d e f i n i t i o n s of functions emerged during the study. Each reveals a d i f f e r e n t aspect of the concept. F i r s t , functions were defined to consist of a combination of one or more physical or mental a c t i v i t i e s which might, depending upon the p a r t i c u l a r case involved, occur i n a l o g i c a l sequence. Second, functions were defined as " a c t i v i t y streams" to connotate a series of related a c t i v i t i e s , occurring i n some natural order, which could be i d e n t i f i e d as r e l a t i n g to a p a r t i c u l a r function. And, l a s t l y , functions were defined as a process which transformed inputs into outputs. I t was from this f i n a l d e f i n i t i o n that the idea of input and output accounts was c r y s t a l i z e d . The idea that functions possess two i d e n t i f i a b l e properties, c a l l e d inputs and outputs, i s hardly new. In f a c t , these two properties of any productive process are at the very core of t r a d i t i o n a l micro-economic 29 analysis (Henderson and Quandt, 1958). Inputs are defined as being any good or service which contributes to the production of any output (Henderson and Quandt, 1958). A l t e r n a t i v e l y , they may be defined as the human and material resources allocated to the performance of a pa r t i c u l a r function. For example, the two major resources, or inputs, involved i n the production of the c i t i z e n complaint function, wherein police respond to c i t i z e n s ' requests for assistance, are manpower and vehicles. Considerable controversy s t i l l exists about the r e l a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness of the one-man versus the two-man pat r o l car (Gourley and Bristow, 1961). I t i s only by incorporating indicators of input into performance accounts for police that such controversy can ever f i n a l l y be resolved. Furthermore, two of the f i v e central questions of program evaluation require measures of input i n order to be resolved. In the context of program evaluation and i t s ultimate conclusion, resource a l l o c a t i o n , inputs are the scarce resources over which the police agency has direct control. I t i s only by a l t e r i n g the quantity and quality of resources or the resource "mix" (combination of inputs) allocated to a p a r t i c u l a r function, that a public agency can have any control whatsoever over the production of i t s output and the generation of i t s impact. The l i n k between inputs and output i s the production function (Henderson and Quandt, 1958). The production function defines the technological relationship between the resources allocated to a pa r t i c u l a r function and the res u l t i n g productivity or output. The public agency transforms inputs into output, subject to the physical and human constraints specified i n the production function. The agency's production function gives mathematical 30 expression, at least conceptually, to the relationship between the quantities of inputs employed and the quantity of output produced. While t r a d i t i o n a l micro-economic production functions only incorporate quantitative measures of output, i t i s not inconceivable that at some time i n the future the production function, p a r t i c u l a r l y that applying to public agencies, may incorporate q u a l i t a t i v e measures of output as w e l l . In f a c t , that i s one of the major propositions of t h i s thesis. When discussing a function's output, one must be careful to make the d i s t i n c t i o n between r e a l output and output capacity. In the provision of a public service, one has control over the maximum volume of output, or output  capacity, which that service can provide. One does not, however, have direct control over the demand for that service, or r e a l output. A simple example w i l l serve to i l l u s t r a t e t h i s important d i s t i n c t i o n . Assume that there are 25 one-man patrol units cruising around the c i t y , assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function. From experience, i t has been determined that the average clearance time per c a l l i s 30 minutes. Clearance time i s equal to t r a v e l time plus service time, or the length of time between when a pa t r o l unit i s assigned to a c a l l , and when he radios the dispatcher at the conclusion of his assignment that he i s " a l l - c l e a r " . From th i s information, i t i s possible to determine that the capacity of each one-man unit i s 16 c a l l s per eight-hour s h i f t . Therefore, the t o t a l capacity of the 25 pa t r o l units during that s h i f t w i l l be 400 c a l l s , or 16 c a l l s per unit times 25 pa t r o l units. However, on this p a r t i c u l a r s h i f t , only 310 c a l l s were made to police requesting assistance. The question now becomes, what i s the more legitimate measure of output, capacity or demand? Was output for that s h i f t 400 c a l l s or 310 c a l l s ? The assumption made i n this thesis i s that 31 output capacity represents potential, as opposed to real output. Regardless of what a function's output capacity may be, no real output is produced unless a demand is placed upon i t . A further example may help crystalize this distinction. The notion of output can be related, particularly i n the case of a service industry, to the s c i e n t i f i c definition of work. Work is measured in foot-pounds per hour. Let us assume that a man working a well has the capacity of l i f t i n g a f u l l bucket of water weighing 10 pounds, through a distance'of 20 feet up from the bottom of the well, a maximum of 12 times per hour. The man therefore has the capacity of doing 2400 foot-pounds of work per hour (10 x 20 x 12 = 2400). However, during a particular hour only 6 people come to the well asking for water. The question now is which is the more legitimate measure of the man's output during that hour? In other words, how much work has the man done during that hour? The answer seems quite clear. In spite of the fact that the man had a capacity of 2400 foot-pounds of work, he actually produced only 1200 foot-pounds of work (10 x 20 x 6 = 1200). There are two points to be made here. The f i r s t i s that there is an important distinction between output capacity and real output. And, this distinction has significant implications for the allocation of resources within the Vancouver Police Department. The second point is that in terms of the traditional micro-economic concepts of demand and supply, for a service industry, real output must be equated with demand, and output capacity must be equated with supply. Functions have been described as a production process which transforms inputs, by means of a production function, into output. The function therefore 32 manifests i t s e l f i n the form of output. Indeed, i t i s a function's output which makes i t distinguishable from other functions, since inputs - manpower and vehicles - are almost i d e n t i c a l for many police functions. Focus now s h i f t s however, one step further, to the s o c i a l welfare function which transforms a function's output into program impact. whereas the l i n k between inputs and output was the production function, the l i n k between output and impact i s the s o c i a l welfare function. I t defines the mathematical relationship, at least conceptually, between a function's output and the impact generated by that output upon the welfare of human beings which comprise society. A function's output may generate numerous impacts upon the s o c i a l environment. And, depending upon one's goals and values, some of these impacts may be perceived as being favorable (reinforcing one's goals and values) and some of them may be perceived as being unfavorable (undermining one's goals and values). Whatever the case, when a function has among i t s t o t a l set of impacts, the goal (desirable impact) of a p a r t i c u l a r program, i t i s assumed that the function i s one of the possible strategies which can be employed i n atta i n i n g the goals of that program. In fact, this was the very rationale used to assign police functions to the programs whose goals they could support. For example, a possible impact of the youth counselling function was the reduction of c r i m i n a l i t y among young people. Cr i m i n a l i t y i s that presence of mind or mental attitude which enables a person to w i l f u l l y commit crime whenever the opportunity ar i s e s . Hence, one of the feasible impacts of youth counselling i s crime prevention, the goal of the crime prevention program. 33 Thus, the youth counselling function was assigned to that program. S i m i l a r l y , one of the possible impacts of the investigation function was seen to be the apprehension of suspects and the recovery of stolen property. Thus, the investigation function was assigned to the apprehension and recovery program. And, so on. From the foregoing discussion, i t i s apparent that program goals are statements of the desirable impact of the functions assigned to them. The addition of the notion of impact to those of input and output provides a sense of conceptual completeness to the a n a l y t i c a l framework within which each police function was to be studied. This framework i s i l l u s t r a t e d below i n Figure 2 . 1 . FIGURE 2.1 A n a l y t i c a l Framework for the Study of Police Functions 34 Generally, inputs and outputs and impacts have, t h e o r e t i c a l l y at l e a s t , two types of entries. The f i r s t and probably the more f a m i l i a r type are quantitative indicators which answer the question, how much? The second are q u a l i t a t i v e indicators which answer the question, how good or how well? In order to touch upon some concrete examples of these indicators, l e t us consider the c i t i z e n complaint function which, as one may r e c a l l , i s concerned with police response to c i t i z e n s ' requests for assistance. One of the obvious inputs to the c i t i z e n complaint function i s manpower. ' Quantitatively (how much), manpower can be described i n a variety of ways, such as the number of policemen, the number of manhours, or the cost of manhours (manhours times hourly wage rate) applied to that function over a specified reporting period. In addition, manpower can be described q u a l i t a t i v e l y (how good or how w e l l ) , although such indicators are open to controversy and frequently not accepted by a l l . One such measure proposed i n t h i s thesis i s the manpower proficiency index. This indicator of the quality (how good) of manpower i s generated by a simple process. F i r s t , an inventory i s taken of a l l those personal attributes of policemen held to be of importance i n the execution of police duties. Examples of such attributes are rank, number of years experience, f i r s t aid t r a i n i n g , language s k i l l s , s p e c i a l weapons and sharp shooters t r a i n i n g , community relations s k i l l s , swimming c e r t i f i c a t e , and so on. Second, every man i s rated on a ten point scale for each c h a r a c t e r i s t i c . F i n a l l y , the ratings for each man are aggregated, according to the relevant unit of analysis, and the r e s u l t i n g sum divided by the number of men, to y i e l d a measure of average proficiency. The proficiency index i s this measure of average proficiency. While this index i s presently at what must be considered a rudimentary stage of development, i t i s a revealing example of the kind of 35 q u a l i t a t i v e (how good) indicators of input which may be emerging i n the future. A more detailed exposition of t h i s concept w i l l be presented i n Chapter 4 which deals s p e c i f i c a l l y with the input account. Quantitative (how much) and q u a l i t a t i v e (how well) indicators of output can also be developed for the c i t i z e n complaint function. C a l l - l o a d , the frequency of requests for.police assistance, i s a q u a l i t a t i v e measure of the r e a l output of t h i s function. Whereas response time, the length of time between when a c i t i z e n c a l l s police for assistance and when the police unit arrives at the scene, i s a q u a l i t a t i v e measure of the output of this function. I t i s also possible to develop both quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e measures of the impact of the c i t i z e n complaint function. As a component of the public safety program, this function has as i t s goal the provision of public safety. Its assignment to this program i s based upon the assumption that the presence or intervention of police during crimes i n progress w i l l tend to reduce or mitigate the impact of crime upon i t s victims. Consequently, an appropriate indicator of the impact of t h i s function would seem to be one that r e f l e c t s the degree to which police presence or intervention during crimes i n progress affects the seriousness of crime occurring i n the c i t y . Such an indicator i s developed i n this thesis. I t i s referred to as the public safety margin. While i t s development i s discussed at great length i n Chapter 5, a b r i e f desc-r i p t i o n of the concept here may be h e l p f u l i n understanding what i s meant by quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e measures of impact. The public safety margin i s closely related to the frequency and seriousness of crime occurring in the c i t y . The frequency of di f f e r e n t types of crimes i s already recorded. And, the seriousness of d i f f e r e n t types of 36 crime can be measured according to a scheme devised by Wolfgang and S e l l i n (1964) which incorporates both the nature and extent of v i c t i m i z a t i o n and the type and magnitude of property loss associated with each crime. I t i s therefore assumed that the affect of police presence or intervention during crimes i n progress can also be measured i n terms of the same scale of seriousness. Calculation of the public safety margin requires two measures of seriousness for each type of crime. This i s to eliminate the natural variance i n seriousness which occurs between different types of crime. For example, on the average, robbery w i l l always be more serious than s h o p l i f t i n g , and homicide w i l l always be more serious than common assault. Let us consider calculation of the public safety margin for the s p e c i f i c crime of robbery. In order to make this c a l c u l a t i o n i t i s necessary to develop two separate measures of seriousness. F i r s t , calculate the average seriousness of 100 robberies which occurred i n the absence of police intervention. Say this was determined to be 8.5 units of seriousness. Second, calculate the average seriousness of 100 robberies which occurred i n the presence of police intervention. Say this was determined to be 5.5 units of seriousness. This procedure creates two measures of seriousness. The f i r s t relates to the average seriousness of robberies which occur i n the absence of police i n t e r -vention (8.5 u n i t s ) , and the second relates to the average seriousness of robberies which occur i n the presence of police intervention (5.5 u n i t s ) . I t i s postulated i n the thesis that the difference between the indices of seriousness i s the public safety margin. In this case, the margin i s equal to the f i r s t index minus the second index, or 8.5 units minus 5.5 units, which equals 3.0 units of seriousness. 37 I t can be concluded from this discussion of Phase 3 of the methodology that a suitable framework for the organization and interpretation of performance indicators for the Vancouver Po l i c e Department can and has been developed. This framework consists of input, output and impact accounts for each of the three police programs. I t has been further demonstrated that both q u a l i t a t i v e and quantitative measures of input, output and impact can and have been developed. The question now becomes how do these accounts become related to the problem of program evaluation and resource a l l o c a t i o n . 2.5 Methodology: Phase 4 The r o l e of Phase- 4 of the methodology was to define the f i v e central questions of program evaluation i n terms of indicators of input, output and impact. Social indicators are t r a d i t i o n a l l y defined as being numerical measures re l a t i n g to s o c i e t a l goals and values (Bauer, 1966; Gross, 1967 and Harland, 1971). One might legitimately claim therefore that as defined i n this thesis, only indicators of impact are bonafide s o c i a l indicators. And, indeed, this may be so. The point i s , however, that the c o l l e c t i o n of indicators of impact alone w i l l enable us to answer only one of the f i v e central questions of program evaluation. That question i s , of course, i s the program a t t a i n i n g i t s goals, and i f so, to what degree? The remaining four questions require indicators of input and output i n addition to indicators of impact. At t h i s point, i t i s perhaps useful to review the f i v e c e ntral questions of program evaluation as outlined previously i n Chapter 1. They are: 38 1. Is the program achieving i t s goals, and i f so, to what degree? 2. What i s the program's impact e f f i c i e n c y , that i s , the relationship between resources allocated to the functions supporting the program and the program's effectiveness? 3. Are the functions supporting the program att a i n i n g t h e i r operating  objectives, and i f so, to what extent? 4. What i s the output e f f i c i e n c y of each function supporting the program, that i s , what i s the relationship between the resources allocated to each function and the productivity of that function? and 5. What i s the effectiveness of each function supporting the program, that i s , what i s the relationship between the productivity of each function and the contribution of that function towards the goals of the program? I f these, then, are the fi v e central questions of the evaluation process, i t becomes evident that not only indicators of impact, but also indicators of input and output are necessary for the process to be complete. In fact, without the supporting framework which has been developed i n this thesis, the claim of s o c i a l indicators as a to o l of program evaluation (Brooks, 1972) would be questionable. Furthermore, this discussion reveals that the relationship between indicators of input, output and impact to the f i v e central questions of program evaluation must be c l e a r l y and precisely defined. Figure 2.2 on the following page i l l u s t r a t e s this r elationship. 39 FIGURE 2.2 The Relationship between Indicators of Input, Output and Impact and the Five Central Questions of Program Evaluation ^ GOALS ^ - DESIRABLE IMPACT ^ EXPERIENCE^-0 Q COMPARE -fc^CTUAL IMPACT^ DEGREE TO WHICH GOALS ARE BEING ATTAINED ^ EXPERIENCE ^ - (ACTUAL INPUT) i ^ COMPARE ^ IMPACT EFFICIENCY 40 FIGURE 2.2 (Cont'd) ( OPERATING "N OBJECTIVES T ^ EXPERIENCE ^EXPERIENCE ^ EXPERIENCE DESIRABLE OUTPUT ) ^ COMPARE I -»^CTUAL OUTPUT^ """^ ACTUAL INPUT ^ J Z Z 3 Z Z L ^ COMPARE ^ I -fr^CTUAL OUTPUT^ -H EXTENT TO WHICH OPERATING OBJECTIVES ARE BEING ADVANCED OUTPUT EFFICIENCY EXPERIENCE > ^ EXPERIENCE -*4 ACTUAL OUTPUT J ( COMPARE V EFFECTIVENESS •M ACTUAL IMPACT 41 Let us consider the c i t i z e n complaint function i n the public safety program as an example to i l l u s t r a t e not only how these questions are answered i n terms of input, output and impact, but also the usefulness of these questions for the purpose of resource a l l o c a t i o n . Ignoring for the moment the process by which operating objectives and program goals are established, l e t us assume that the following statement of operating objectives and goals has been art i c u l a t e d by senior management of the Department: 1. Goal: public safety margin should be 4.0 units of seriousness and 2. Operating Objective: response time for police should be 5.5 minutes Indicators of input, output and impact contained i n the performance accounts of the public safety program reveal the following values for the f i r s t and second quarter of 1974: TABLE 2.2 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Ci t i z e n Complaint Function of the Public Safety Program  Period Input Account Output Account Impact Account January 1 to 10 patrol units 8.0 minutes 1.5 units March 31 A p r i l 1 to 15 patrol units 6.0 minutes 3.0 units June 30 At the end of the f i r s t reporting period, the performance accounts contained the entries i n the f i r s t l i n e of Table 2.2. The average response time during t h i s period was 8.0 minutes, or 2.5 minutes longer than the 42 operating objective of 5.5 minutes, established by management. The public safety margin during t h i s same period was 1.5 units of seriousness, or 2.5 units less than the goal of 4.0 units, set by the Department. As a r e s u l t of th i s assessment, senior management decides to all o c a t e an additional 5 pa t r o l units to the c i t i z e n complaint function i n order to bridge the gap between actual and desirable performance. After a further three-month period, the performance accounts contain the entries i n the second l i n e of Table 2.2. The response time during the second period was 6.0 minutes, or only 0.5 minutes longer than the operating objective of 5.5 minutes. The public safety margin over this same period was 3.0 units of seriousness, or 1.0 units less than the goal of 4.0 units. Without t h i s knowledge of input, output and impact as i l l u s t r a t e d here, i t would be impossible to monitor the quality of output of the c i t i z e n complaint function (response time), or the impact of this function upon public safety (the public safety margin). This same example can also serve to i l l u s t r a t e the notions of impact  e f f i c i e n c y , output e f f i c i e n c y , and effectiveness which were defined i n Figure 2 t 2 i The entries i n the performance accounts also indicate the marginal impact e f f i c i e n c y of the public service function i s 1 pat r o l unit per 0.3 units of seriousness. This means that an increase of 1 patrol unit allocated to the c i t i z e n complaint function w i l l r esult i n a 0.3 unit reduction i n the public safety margin, I t should be recognized at this point that impact 43 e f f i c i e n c y i s a summary measure of both output e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness. If impact e f f i c i e n c y i s nearing zero, i t indicates that an increase i n patrol strength w i l l not l i k e l y have any effect whatsoever upon the public safety margin. Breaking down impact e f f i c i e n c y into output e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness merely enables the analyst to determine whether the bottleneck i s occurring i n the production function or the s o c i a l welfare function. This i s important for remedial action. I f the bottleneck i s i n the production function, management may be able to locate the problem and take corrective action. On the other hand, i f the bottleneck i s i n the s o c i a l welfare function, i t i s less l i k e l y , even i f the problem were to be i d e n t i f i e d , that the public agency w i l l have the j u r i s d i c t i o n or capacity to act. This i s simply because the agency has direct control over i t s i n t e r n a l operation, whereas i t does not have such control over the operations of other agencies or the actions of the community at large. The entries in the performance accounts indicate that the marginal output e f f i c i e n c y of the c i t i z e n complaint function i s 1 minute of response time per 2.5 pat r o l units. This means that by increasing the number of pat r o l units by 2.5 the response time for this function can be reduced by 1 minute, assuming that c a l l - l o a d does not subsequently r i s e . I t i s important to monitor the marginal output e f f i c i e n c y of this function i n order to determine when this indicator i s nearing zero. At th i s point, a l l o c a t i o n of addi t i o n a l number of patrol units to this function w i l l have l i t t l e or no effect upon response time. The entries i n the performance accounts also indicate the marginal effectiveness of the public service function i s 0.75 units of seriousness per minute of response time. This means that a reduction i n response time of 44 1 minute w i l l have the effect of increasing the public safety margin by 0.75 units. I t i s important to monitor the marginal effectiveness of t h i s function i n att a i n i n g the goals of the Public Safety Program i n order to determine when t h i s indicator i s nearing zero. When th i s occurs, any further reduction i n response time w i l l have l i t t l e or no effect upon the public safety margin. It may be concluded from this discussion of Phase 4 of the methodology that there i s a s t r i c t relationship between indicators of input, output and impact and the f i v e central questions of program evaluation. And, that t h i s relationship has been formally defined i n t h i s thesis. 2.6 Methodology: Phase 5 The f i n a l phase of the methodology i s concerned with the interpretation of the performance accounts for each of the three police programs: (1) the Crime Prevention Program, (2) the Public Safety Program, and (3) the App-rehension and Recovery Program. In addition, this phase of the study i d e n t i f i e s areas i n need of further refinement and research. Phase 5 of the study i s reported i n d e t a i l i n Chapters 5,6 and 7. 2.7 Concluding Remarks It i s the actual indicators of input, output and impact which are to be recorded by the new police information system. But what i s ess e n t i a l for the ease of program evaluation i s the formulation of operating objectives and 45 program goals i n terms of the same parameters as output and impact indicators. For example, consider the output and impact indicators of the c i t i z e n complaint function discussed i n Phase 4. Output for t h i s function i s measured i n terms of c a l l - l o a d capacity and response time. Therefore, the operating objectives for that function should also be expressed i n terms of the same parameters, that i s , c a l l - l o a d and response time. S i m i l a r l y , indicators of impact for the Public Safety Program are expressed i n terms of the public safety margin, measured in units of seriousness on a scale of 10. Therefore, the goals of this program should also be expressed i n terms of the same parameter, that i s , the public safety margin. I f operating objectives and program goals are expressed i n terms of the same parameters ar output and impact indicators, then the process of program evaluation i s greatly f a c i l i t a t e d . The question may arise as to how operating objectives and program goals are established. I t i s envisaged that senior management of the Department, i n consultation with the Vancouver Police Board, would estab l i s h operating objectives and program goals based upon their experience and judgement. I t must be appreciated that the motive behind management by objectives i s to improve program performance by c l e a r l y expressing operating objectives and program goals i n terms of concrete, tangible measures. However, one should also r e a l i z e that i f top p r i o r i t y objectives and goals are not being met, there are several choices open to management. One of these i s to lower expectations of performance as manifested i n the objectives and goals of police programs. But, on the other hand, i t should also be understood that objectives and goals which are too eas i l y met should be extended and upgraded, i f they are to remain e f f e c t i v e tools of management. 46 Since before t h i s study commenced no indicators of input, output and impact had been formally i d e n t i f i e d for the Department, the significance of these indicators for program evaluation and resource a l l o c a t i o n has only recently been recognized. Thus, the Department has not been i n a posi t i o n to formulate operating objectives and program goals i n terms of indicators of output and impact. But i t i s hoped that as a resul t of th i s thesis, senior management at the Department w i l l begin to recognize the potential of s o c i a l indicators for program evaluation and resource a l l o c a t i o n , and as a result begin to formulate operating objectives and program goals i n terms of these indicators. This i s not to say, however, that the indicators presented i n t h i s thesis should not be thoroughly questioned before they are accepted as v a l i d , nor i s i t to be said that these indicators should not be tested and the assumption:; upon which they are based continually reviewed. 47 CHAPTER 3 PROGRAM GOALS AND FUNCTIONS OF THE VANCOUVER POLICE DEPARTMENT 3.1 Introduction The urban police force i s , in most instances, a para-military organization characterized by strong internal controls and centralized decision making (Gourley and Bristow, 1961). The Vancouver Police Department is no exception. Traditionally, i t s organizational goals have been oriented towards public safety and apprehension. However, in recent years, there has been a gradual shift in emphasis from apprehension to crime prevention. This chapter presents a sampling of traditional police goals, formulates the program goals of the Vancouver Police Department, identifies and describes the functions carried out by the Department, and f i n a l l y , assigns these functions to programs according to whether a function is considered a feasible strategy for achieving the goals of a program. 3.2 Traditional Police Goals A selective sample of police goals which have appeared in the literature is presented on the following page. An awareness of traditional police goals w i l l allow the reader to view those formulated for the Vancouver Police Department in the perspective of what other police administrators and analysts 48 h a v e s e e n a s a p p r o p r i a t e a n d v a l i d m i s s i o n s f o r p o l i c e i n t h e i r c o m m u n i t i e s . A s h o r t c o m i n g o f some o f t h e s e g o a l s i s t h a t t h e y c o n f u s e p o l i c e f u n c t i o n s w i t h p o l i c e g o a l s . T h a t i s t o s a y , t h e y f a i l t o d i s c r i m i n a t e b e t w e e n t h e means t o a n e n d a n d t h e e n d i t s e l f . T h o s e p o l i c e g o a l s w h i c h , i n t h e o p i n i o n o f t h e a u t h o r , a r e p r o b a b l y p o l i c e f u n c t i o n s , a r e m a r k e d w i t h a n a s t e r i s k ( * ) . T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l C i t y M a n a g e r s ' A s s o c i a t i o n d r e w u p a s e t o f f i v e p o l i c e g o a l s ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l C i t y M a n a g e r s ' A s s o c i a t i o n , 1 9 6 1 ) : 1 . p r e v e n t i o n o f c r i m i n a l i t y 2 . r e p r e s s i o n o f c r i m e 3 . a p p r e h e n s i o n o f o f f e n d e r s 4 . r e c o v e r y o f p r o p e r t y , a n d 5 . r e g u l a t i o n o f n o n - c r i m i n a l c o n d u c t * A n o t h e r s e t o f p o l i c e g o a l s was c o n c e i v e d b y L e a h y ( 1 9 6 6 ) . He p o s t u l a t e d s e v e n g o a l s f o r p o l i c e : 1 . p r e v e n t i o n o f c r i m e 2 . i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f c r i m e s * 3 . a p p r e h e n s i o n o f v i o l a t o r s 4 . p r e s e n t a t i o n o f c r i m i n a l f o r a d j u d i c a t i o n * 5 . s e r v i c e s t o t h e p u b l i c * 6 . e n f o r c e m e n t o f n o n - c r i m i n a l o r d i n a n c e s * , a n d 7 . r e g u l a t i o n o f a c t i v i t y i n p u b l i c p l a c e s * S z a n t o n ( 1 9 6 7 ) , a n o t h e r s t u d e n t o f p o l i c e s y s t e m s , saw t h e r e t o b e f o u r g o a l s f o r p o l i c e : 4 9 1. control and reduction of crime 2. movement and control of t r a f f i c * 3. maintenance of public order, and 4 . provision of public service* Another perception of police goals was given by Whisenand (1968): 1. reduction of potential criminal behaviour 2. repression of crime 3. apprehension of offenders 4 . recovery of stolen property 5. provision of minimum s o c i a l control, and 6. p a r t i c i p a t i o n in the implementation of c i v i l defense and disaster services* A recent task force report on Correctional Services and F a c i l i t i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia concluded that there were three major p o l i c e goals (Matheson et a l , 1973): 1. law enforcement* 2. order maintenance, and 3. public service* F i n a l l y , another scholar i n the f i e l d of police systems, Nilsson (1972), has suggested that there are two levels of police goals. The higher order goals he c a l l s "missions", while the lower order goals he c a l l s "objectives". His two-tier grouping of police goals i s presented on the following page: 50 A. Missions 1 . protection of l i f e and property 2 . maintenance of peace and order 3. public service*, and 4. community support B. Objectives 1. crime control 2. quasi-criminal control 3. public peace 4. t r a f f i c regulation* 5. public service*, and 6. community support* In the context of the program framework presented i n this thesis, functions are the means to an end (the output), but they are not the end i n themselves (the impact). Let us consider the statements presented above. The provision of public service, what i s referred to i n this thesis as the c i t i z e n complaint  function, i s what police do, but not why they do i t . The purpose of this function i s public safety, such as the protection of persons from physical injury and loss of property a r i s i n g from criminal acts committed against them. In other words, public service i s what police do, but public safety i s why they do i t . The d i s t i n c t i o n between functions and goals i s extremely important for the development of performance accounts for police. The reason i s clear. 51 Goals lead the way to indicators of impact, whereas functions lead the way to indicators of output. I f functions are taken to be goals, then surely indicators of output w i l l be taken to be indicators of impact. In other words, what we are doing w i l l be taken to be why we are doing i t . I f this occurs, the t r a d i t i o n a l s o c i a l indicators referred to i n the l i t e r a t u r e w i l l be l o s t from sight. Society w i l l lose i t s sense of d i r e c t i o n . And, as a r e s u l t , there w i l l be great confusion i n the attempt to develop performance accounts for s o c i a l agencies and to formulate public policy. I t must be recognized, however, that i n developing program goals, the author and senior members of the Vancouver Po l i c e Department have been open to the same p o s s i b i l i t i e s of error as have the other writers whose goals have been cited i n the text above. However, the fact that the p o s s i b i l i t y of confusing functions with goals was recognized i n advance of goal formulation, may have reduced by some degree the l i k e l i h o o d that the goals formulated for the Department are open to the same c r i t i c i s m . The reader w i l l be l e f t to judge for himself. 3.3 Goals of the Vancouver Police Department The overriding purpose of any police department i s public safety (Gourley and Bristow, 1961). Within the Vancouver Po l i c e Department, there are three d i s t i n c t programs which operate to support this o v e r a l l mission. They are: (1) the Crime Prevention Program, (2) the Public Safety Program, and (3) the Apprehension and Recovery Program. 52 I t w i l l be recognized that these programs follow i n a l o g i c a l progression. The f i r s t i s the Crime Prevention Program which i s oriented towards preventing crime from actually occurring. However, once a crime has occurred, the Public Safety Program i s i n i t i a t e d to reduce or mitigate the affect of the crime upon i t s victims. F i n a l l y , a fter the safety of the victims has been re-assured, the Apprehension and Recovery Program becomes operational i n order to apprehend suspects or recover property stolen during the course of the crime. For each of these programs, a set of goals has been formulated. These evolved ouc of a series of brainstorming sessions between the author and senior members of the Vancouver Police Department. The goals are l i s t e d under the name of the program to which they refer: 1. the Crime Prevention Program a) to repress criminal a c t i v i t y b) to reduce opportunities for crime c) to encourage community s e l f - p o l i c i n g d) to retard the development of c r i m i n a l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n youth 2. the Public Safety Program a) to protect persons from injury b) to aid persons i n need of assistance c) to secure property against theft d) to protect property from damage and e) to maintain public order 3. the Apprehension and Recovery Program a) to apprehend suspects 53 to recover stolen property to sieze contraband goods or property to obtain physical evidence, supported by a n a l y t i c a l or expert documentation wherever necessary, and to secure material witnesses of crime, i n order: - to j u s t i f y l e g a l arrest or summons of suspects - to warrant bringing the suspect to t r i a l , and - to support prosecution of the suspects i n court Goals are statements of the desired impact of pol i c e programs. As such, they are the foundations upon which s o c i a l indicators are to be based (Bauer, 1966; Gross, 1967 and Harland, 1971). Furthermore, a central tenet of the s o c i a l indicator movement i s that goals should be expressed i n terms of concrete, tangible numerical measures. In this thesis, these measures are referred to as indicators of impact. Thus, police goals must be expressed i n terms of the same parameters and the same units of measurement as are indicators of impact. This i s one of the tasks addressed i n Chapters 5 , 6 and 7. 3.4 Functions of the Vancouver Police Department From a survey of a l l a c t i v i t i e s of the Vancouver Po l i c e Department, ten police functions were i d e n t i f i e d . Each of these was intended to represent an entry i n the performance accounts for the Department. Thus, each was defined i n such a way as to be mutually exclusive of a l l other functions when considered independently, and mutually exhaustive with a l l other functions when considered j o i n t l y . b) c) d) 54 The ten functions so i d e n t i f i e d were: 1. the public education function 2. the youth counselling function 3. the community p o l i c i n g function 4. the preventive patrol function 5. the enforcement function 6. the c i t i z e n complaint function 7. the crowd control function 8. the escort duty function 9. the c i v i l disaster co-ordination 10. the investigation function While these functions have been named so as to be self-explanatory, a b r i e f description of the types of a c t i v i t i e s associated with each function may help to lay aside any doubts as to t h e i r meaning. The Public Education Function. This function i s viewed as an e f f e c t i v e vehicle for crime prevention and recognized as an a l t e r n a t i v e or complement to the more t r a d i t i o n a l crime prevention techniques, such as the preventive patrol and enforcement functions. A wide variety of media are employed i n public education projects by p o l i c e , ranging from the d i s t r i b u t i o n of "Crime-Stop" b u l l e t i n s , to personal door-to-door campaigns i n r e s i d e n t i a l neighbourhoods. While the media through which the message i s conveyed may vary considerably, the message i t s e l f i s usually the same: (1) be a l e r t to crime which may be occurring i n your neighbourhood, (2) report any suspicious persons or a c t i v i t i e s immediately to p o l i c e , (3) keep your premises secure, and (4) always lock your vehicle when leaving i t unoccupied. 55 The Youth Counselling Function. This function actually encompasses a wider scope of a c t i v i t i e s than i t s name suggests. F i r s t , i t provides an advisory counselling service for parents whose juveniles have demonstrated a propensity towards a n t i - s o c i a l , antagonistic or destructive behaviour. And, second, i t provides police l i a s o n with high school students through policemen placed i n residence at the schools. There the police advise teachers on how to tackle youth problems, advocate the police role i n the community and i n classroom discussions with students, and investigate c i t i z e n complaints against youth attending the school or l i v i n g i n the neighbourhood. The Community P o l i c i n g Function. The philosophy underlying this p a r t i c u l a r approach to crime prevention i s that crime i s not merely a police problem, but a problem with implications for the entire community. Therefore, the solution to crime should involve not only police p a r t i c i p a t i o n , but also the p a r t i c i p a t i o n of other s o c i a l services as w e l l . A further implication of this crime prevention strategy i s that, at least i n part, crime stems from psychological, s o c i a l and economic problems which are outside the scope and beyond the realm of police j u r i s d i c t i o n and competence. And, unless these root causes can be i d e n t i f i e d , and appropriate remedial action be'taken by .various other s o c i a l agencies, i n concert with police, the p o s s i b i l i t y for long-term crime prevention i s extremely low. There are two major aspects of community p o l i c i n g as practiced by the Vancouver Po l i c e Department. One i s that of encouraging the community to come forward with a proposed solution to the i r problem, rather than the imposition of a solution designed exclusively by police. However, the other aspect of community p o l i c i n g i s a s p e c i f i c strategy of crime prevention. I t involves two basic steps: (1) i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the nature and scope of the 56 c r i m i n a l problem i n the community, and (2) development, i n co-operation with other relevant s o c i a l agencies, a co-ordinated program to reduce the frequency and seriousness of crime i n that community, by attacking the root p s y c h o l o g i c a l , s o c i a l and economic problems which f o s t e r crime. It i s t h i s second aspect of community p o l i c i n g which w i l l be the focus of a t t e n t i o n i n t h i s t h e s i s . The Preventive P a t r o l Function. This function ref e r s to the p h y s i c a l demonstration of p o l i c e presence f o r the purpose of preventing crime from occurring i n a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y . I t i s frequently associated with that category of crimes known as "preventable" crimes, which includes robbery, breaking and entering, and t h e f t . Although current thinking now tends to suggest that preventive p a t r o l may be e f f e c t i v e against any crime which could occur i n a p u b l i c place to which p o l i c e have access on t h e i r rounds. This strategy could quite s u c c e s s f u l l y be employed to reduce the frequency and seriousness of assau l t s and other disturbances which occur i n l o c a l bars and c o c k t a i l lounges. Preventive p a t r o l may be used as a s i n g l e strategy to repress crime i n an area of the c i t y , or i t may be used i n conjunction with other p o l i c e s t r a t e g i e s , such as community p o l i c i n g . The Enforcement Function. This function usually concerns the on-sit e observation of an offense, and subsequent apprehension of the suspect, which may ul t i m a t e l y lead to h i s being arrested or being given a summons to appear i n court at a l a t e r date. While the enforcement function i s frequently associated with t r a f f i c v i o l a t i o n s , i t may also occur i n r e l a t i o n to more serious offenses, such as common assault or v i o l a t i o n of municipal by-laws which regulate p u b l i c a c t i v i t y i n s p e c i f i c places, such as parks and beaches i n the c i t y . 57 The C i t i z e n Complaint Function. This function incorporates a l l those a c t i v i t i e s related to police response to c i t i z e n requests for assistance. These requests may involve anything from a hold-up i n progress to a parking complaint. I t encompasses the a c t i v i t i e s of the emergency telephone answering service, the radio dispatcher and p a t r o l units i n the f i e l d . The Crowd Control Function. This function encompasses a l l those a c t i v i t i e s related to police control of large crowds. These crowds may develop for a variety of reasons, such as major sporting events, public demonstrations, parades and exhibitions, rock concerts, v i s i t i n g heads of state and p o l i t i c a l d i g n i t a r i e s , and so on. This function requires d e t a i l planning w e l l i n advance of the day of the event. Operationalization of this function may occur only 2 to 3 times a year and i s usually unique to a p a r t i c u l a r event. The Escort Duty Function. This function incorporates a l l those a c t i v i t i e s related to the escort of large sums of money, criminal suspects, important p o l i t i c a l figures, and so on. I t usually requires d e t a i l planning of the route of t r a v e l from o r i g i n to destination. However, many routine escorts occur d a i l y i n transferring prisoners from j a i l to court, or from one place of confinement to another. This function may occur i n conjunction with the crowd control function, and l i k e that function, i s usually unique to a part i c u l a r event. The C i v i l Disaster Co-ordination Function. This function relates to a l l police a c t i v i t i e s associated with the persuance of public safety i n the event of a major urban disaster. The disaster could be an earthquake, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the Vancouver area. I t could be a large i n d u s t r i a l f i r e threatening to spread toxic fumes over a large sector of the c i t y . Or, i t 58 could be the crash of a large passenger j e t l i n e r i n a densely populated urban area. Contingency plans for many types of disasters are already on f i l e at the Department to be immediately implemented whenever necessary. The Investigation Function. This function incorporates such a c t i v i t i e s as interviewing witnesses to a crime, searching suspicious premises or vehicles for stolen property or evidence, checking suspicious persons on the stree t , i n premises or vehicles, examining the scene of a crime, gathering evidence, staking out a location, and so on. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of police functions i s c r i t i c a l to the development of performance accounts for p o l i c e . They are the means through which program goals can be attained. Awareness of what functions are available to effect program goals, and their r e l a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness i n doing so, i s essential i f maximization of performance or minimization of cost of the police agency i s to be reali z e d . Furthermore, functions as processes have inherent within them indicators of output which are necessary i f the questions of output e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness, two of the f i v e central questions of program evaluation, are to be answered. 3.5 Police Functions Assigned to Programs The three programs for the Vancouver Po l i c e Department were conceived to be: (1) the Crime Prevention Program, (2) the Public Safety Program, and (3) the Apprehension and Recovery Program. The functions i d e n t i f i e d i n the previous section were assigned to programs as follows: 59 1 . the Crime Prevention Program a) the public education function b) the youth counselling function c) the community p o l i c i n g function d) the preventive p a t r o l function (enforcement function) 2. the Public Safety Program a) the c i t i z e n complaint function b) the crowd control function c) the escort duty function d) the c i v i l disaster co-ordination function 3. the Apprehension and Recovery Program a) the c i t i z e n complaint function b) the investigation function c) the preventive p a t r o l function (enforcement function) I t should be.noted that both the c i t i z e n complaint and preventive p a t r o l functions are contained within two separate programs. This has been done deliberately and i s related to the c r i t e r i a by which functions were assigned to programs. Moreover, the preventive patrol function i s considered to incorporate the enforcement function which i s enclosed i n parenthesis. For purposes of this analysis, each function i s conceived as possessing three d i s t i n c t types of parameters: inputs, outputs, and impacts. Both quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e numerical measures of these parameters can be i d e n t i f i e d . These measures are c a l l e d indicators of input, output and impact. 60 Disregarding indicators of input and output for the time being, i t can be said that each function possesses an i d e n t i f i a b l e set of impacts. Furthermore, any one of these impacts may be considered desirable or undesirable, favorable or unfavorable depending upon one's goals and values. The desirable or favorable impacts of the police agency have been a r t i c u l a t e d , i n terms of s o c i e t a l goals and values, i n the program goals of the Department. In fact, a set of goals has been formulated for each police program. wherever ( i n two-dimensional space, see Venn Diagrams below i n Figure 3.1) a program's set of goals coincides with a function's set of possible impacts, that function has been assigned to the program. The operation of this c r i t e r i o n i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n a series of Venn Diagrams contained in Figure 3.1'below. FIGURE 3.1 C r i t e r i o n for Assigning a Function to a Police Program  Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 1 = Set of Possible Impacts of Function 1 2 = Set of Possible Impacts of Function 2 3 = Set of Possible Impacts of Function 3 A = Set of Goals of Program A 61 In Case 1, Function 1 was not assigned to Program A because there was no coincidence whatsoever between the set of possible impacts of Function 1 and the set of goals of Program A. In Cases 2 and 3, however, Functions 2 and 3 were assigned to Program A because there was coincidence between the set of possible impacts of Functions 2 and 3, and the set of goals of Program A. There i s unfortunately at least one weakness i n th i s process. And that i s the fact that the coincidence of functional impacts and program goals was determined i n t u i t i v e l y , and not on the basis of empirical evidence. In a l l cases, the decision was made by the author, i n consultation with senior management at the Department. Therefore, while the c r i t e r i o n employed i s clear and i t s theoretical basis sound, there exists the p o s s i b i l i t y that future empirical v e r i f i c a t i o n of these assignments may prove some of them to be wrong. On the other hand, few hypotheses have been proven empirically which did not appear to be i n t u i t i v e l y correct i n the f i r s t instance. 3.6 Concluding Remarks A possible shortcoming of t r a d i t i o n a l police goals as ar t i c u l a t e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e i s that some of them are police functions misinterpreted as police goals. The d i s t i n c t i o n between goals and functions i s extremely important for the development of s o c i a l accounts for police, since goals lead the way to indicators of impact, whereas functions lead the way to indicators of output. Within the general context of public safety, three police programs were i d e n t i f i e d at the Vancouver Police Department: (1) the Crime Prevention Program, (2) the Public Safety Program, and (3) the Apprehension and Recovery Program. 62 Furthermore, ten police functions were i d e n t i f i e d by analysis of a c t i v i t i e s o the Department. These functions were assigned to the police programs, accord to the c r i t e r i o n of whether or not they supported program goals. The program structure established i n t h i s chapter, sets the stage for the more detailed discussion of performance accounts to follow. 63 CHAPTER 4 THE INPUT ACCOUNT FOR POLICE PROGRAMS AND SUPPORTING FUNCTIONS 4.1 Introduction One of the major propositions of th i s thesis i s that police functions are characterized by three parameters: inputs, output and impacts. In fact, the police function JLS_ the output. For each police function, inputs are transformed into output by means of a production function, and output i s transformed into impacts by means of a s o c i a l welfare function. The production functions and s o c i a l welfare functions are unique to each function. But the inputs to each function are extremely s i m i l a r . Thus, i n spite of the diverse nature of output and impacts from police functions, there i s a common pool of resources from which a l l outputs are produced and from which a l l impacts are generated. Therefore, s i m i l a r kinds of inputs can produce numerous and d i s t i n c t types of output which, i n turn, can generate a m u l t i p l i c i t y of impacts. Because the same kinds of inputs are common to a l l functions, i t i s appropriate to develop indicators of input i n a general treatment separate from the discussion of police programs and supporting functions. And, since inputs are the f i r s t element i n the l o g i c a l progression from inputs to output to impacts, i t i s also appropriate that they be discussed f i r s t . 64 4.2 The Significance of Indicators of Input for the Development of Performance Accounts for P o l i c e  The input account, at f i r s t glance, may appear to be both t r a d i t i o n a l and inappropriate to a discussion of program evaluation. But one would be wrong on both counts. F i r s t , development of an input account for program evaluation demands more than a mere duplication of conventional f i n a n c i a l accounts. In essence, i t requires a new conceptual breakdown of resources i n terms of what they are, and what they are used for. Second, indicators of input are essential i f two of the f i v e central questions of program evaluation, output e f f i c i e n c y and impact e f f i c i e n c y are to be answered. In f a c t , impact  e f f i c i e n c y which i s the r a t i o of input to impact i s perhaps the single most important question of program evaluation, for i t t e l l s us what impact has been achieved r e l a t i v e to a given expenditure of resources. This reveals the underlying p r i n c i p l e behind the need for program evaluation, and that i s the law of s c a r c i t y . I f resources were unlimited, i f an i n f i n i t e amount of every commodity (inputs) were available, then i t would not matter i f labor and materials were combined unwisely. There would be no economic goods, no goods that are r e l a t i v e l y scarce, and there would be no need for economizing, since a l l goods (inputs) would be free (Samuelson and Scott, 1971). The law of s c a r c i t y applies not only to society i n general, but also to the Vancouver Police Department i n p a r t i c u l a r . In the general sense, the resources of society are l i m i t e d , whereas i n the p a r t i c u l a r sense the f i n a n c i a l budget of the Vancouver Police Department i s also l i m i t e d . In the face of these constraints, the purpose of program evaluation i s to achieve the greatest possible program impact with the smallest expenditure of resources. 65 I t i s one thing for a function to be achieving i t s operating objectives, i t i s yet another thing for that function to have a high output e f f i c i e n c y . S i m i l a r l y , i t i s one thing for a function to be a t t a i n i n g the goals of a program, i t i s yet another thing for that function to have a high impact e f f i c i e n c y . The degree to which a function i s achieving i t s operating objectives or a t t a i n i n g i t s program goals i s an absolute measure of success. On the other hand, both output e f f i c i e n c y and impact e f f i c i e n c y relate the degree of success to the expenditure of resources. Impact e f f i c i e n c y , i n p a r t i c u l a r , i s at the very . core of the program evaluation process. On this single measure, the r e l a t i v e merit of a p a r t i c u l a r function can be known. And, the derivation of this measure requires just as accurate an estimate of inputs as i t does an estimate of impacts. Thus, indicators of input have a c r u c i a l r o l e to play i n the process of program evaluation, a role equal to that of indicators of impact. This i s why indicators of input are v i t a l to the program evaluation process and warrant more than a cursory footnote i n the discussion of performance accounts for police. 4.3 Proposed Entries for the Input Accounts The major thrust of this chapter i s that accurate and comprehensive measures of the resources allocated to each police function i s essential for e f f e c t i v e program evaluation. The primary focus of t h i s chapter i s upon the development of quantitative measures of input, although a q u a l i t a t i v e measure of human resources i s proposed i n the l a t t e r part of t h i s section. 66 4.3.1 General Types of Entries There are three t r a d i t i o n a l entries i n conventional cost accounting. They are labor, materials and overhead. Labor generally refers to the cost of wages, s a l a r i e s and fringe benefits. Materials generally refers to a l l s p e c i f i c non-human resources absorbed i n the operation. And, overhead generally refers to a l l those items which represent either fixed costs to the operation or i n d i v i s i b l e costs which elude a l l o c a t i o n . These broad categories of resources w i l l continue to have relevance i n the proposed new input accounts. However, rather than having t o t a l s for the entire Department, there would be sub-totals for each police function. The overriding p r i n c i p l e upon which the new input accounts are to be based i s that a l l variable or d i v i s i b l e costs should be charged d i r e c t l y to the operation of a s p e c i f i c police function. The cost of functions could then be aggregated for each program to provide an estimate of t o t a l program costs. The rationale behind this procedure i s for costs to be aggregated i n terms of police functions, that i s , according to the same units of analysis as output and impact accounts. This i s , of course, to f a c i l i t a t e program evaluation. In order to gain perspective of the actual nature and magnitude of police costs and how they would r e l a t e to the proposed input accounts, an examination of recent annual budgets of the Vancouver and Metropolitan Toronto Police Departments i s enlightening. These are presented on the following pages i n Tables 4.1 and 4.2. The entries are ranked according to magnitude of cost, and expressed as a percentage of the t o t a l budget. 67 TABLE 4.1 Vancouver Po l i c e Department, Operating Budget, 1973  Entries Manpower Detention F a c i l i t i e s Transportation Building Operation and Maintenance Training Academy Communica t ions Stationery, P r i n t i n g and Office Expenses Miscellaneous Expenses Bicycle Registration Unit Crime Detection Laboratory and I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Unit (Rounding Error Correction) TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS % of Total 87.9 4.0 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 (-0.2) 100.0 Amount 13,513,426 609,754 536,936 271,090 140,438 122,765 83,790 57,205 33,491 8,300 15,377,195 Source: Vancouver Police Department Annual Report, 1973 68 TABLE 4.2 Metropolitan Toronto P o l i c e Department Operating Budget, 1971  Entries % of Total Amount Manpower 91.2 50,874,391 Transportation 3.8 2,090,944 Office 2.0 1,129,603 Clothing and Equipment 1.8 1,016.380 Communications 0.7 381,658 Miscellaneous Expenses 0.5 270,569 TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS 100.0 55,763,545 .Source: Metropolitan Toronto Police Department Annual Report, 1971 Let us analyse these budgets i n terms of the three types of entries proposed for the new input accounts, namely, labor, materials and overhead. Labor. I t i s r e l a t i v e l y simple to deduce from these budgets the appropriate entry for labor. The t o t a l cost of sa l a r i e s and fringe benefits for both police and c l e r i c a l s t a f f amounts to $13,513,426 for the Vancouver Po l i c e , and $50,874,391 for the Metropolitan Toronto P o l i c e , or 87.9 and 91.4 per cent of t h e i r t o t a l operating budgets, respectively. I t would therefore appear from a cursory examination of these budgets, that the cost of manpower alone accounts for between 85 and 90 per cent of the t o t a l annual operating budget of police agencies. This has a s i g n i f i c a n t implication for the development of measures of input, for since manpower i s by far the most important single entry, i t thus demands the greatest consideration i n i t s treatment here. 69 Materials. The kinds of material resources most frequently associated with police functions are vehicles, radios, weapons and crime detection equip-ment. Therefore, i n terms of the recent Vancouver Police budget, t h i s entry would include such items as transportation, communications, crime detection laboratory and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n u n i t , as w e l l as stationery, p r i n t i n g and o f f i c e expenses, and bui l d i n g operation and maintenance. In terms of the recent Metropolitan Toronto Police budget, t h i s entry would include such items as transportation, communications, clothing and equipment, and o f f i c e . Each of these items can be expressed i n terms of a general charge-out rate which can be used to allocate costs d i r e c t l y to the police function which absorbed them. The question of how these s p e c i f i c charge-out rates w i l l be developed i s addressed shortly. Overhead. The purpose behind a l l o c a t i n g s p e c i f i c operating costs by means of di r e c t charges against the police functions which have incurred them, i s to reduce or eliminate wherever possible the vague and nebulous overhead charges which often hide and frequently misallocate the true costs of a function's operation. The only entries i n the recent police budgets which cannot or should not be included as direct user charges are items such as the Training Academy i n the Vancouver Police budget, and the Miscellaneous Expenses , in the Metropolitan Toronto Police budget. The c r i t e r i a behind the "cannot or should not" w i l l be explained shortly. A.3.2 Specific Entries for the Input Account There are three types of entries proposed for the input account. These are: (1) manpower, (2) direct expenses, and (3) overhead. Only manpower and direct expenses w i l l be allocated d i r e c t l y to p a r t i c u l a r police 70 functions. Overhead w i l l be considered as a general entry r e l a t i n g to the entire Department. Manpower. Both quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e measures of input are proposed for the manpower entry. The quantitative measures are the number of men, the number of manhours or the cost of men, that i s , the number of manhours mu l t i p l i e d by the appropriate wage rates. The q u a l i t a t i v e measure of manpower i s ca l l e d the proficiency index. There are several reasons why such a measure should be developed for the po l i c e agency. F i r s t , a fact which has been mentioned previously, the cost of manpower may run as high as 90 per cent of the t o t a l departmental budget. Second, manpower i s a highly variable commodity which d i f f e r s widely i n terms of p o t e n t i a l , a b i l i t y and s k i l l . This i s i n contrast to most items which f a l l within the direct expense entry. These, such as vehicles, radios, weapons, and other kinds of supporting equipment, are extremely standardized i n terms of their q u a l i t a t i v e a t t r i b u t e s . And, t h i r d , a factor which i s actually a combination of points one and two, the quality of manpower allocated to a p a r t i c u l a r function may w e l l have a s i g n i f i c a n t affect upon the productivity and impact of that function. One might counter with the argument that ranks provide an adequate q u a l i t a t i v e measure of manpower. But t h i s may not be accepted as a v a l i d argument. While rank may be used as an approximate gauge of the quality of manpower available i n the department, the primary purpose of rank i n a paramilitary organization such as the police i s to establish a command 71 structure. Furthermore, much of the actual workload of departmental programs i s carried out i n the f i e l d by members of almost equal rank, i e . t h i r d , second and f i r s t class constables. Thus, there exists considerable j u s t i f i c a t i o n for the development of a q u a l i t a t i v e measure of manpower. In view of t h i s , the proficiency index i s proposed as one possible manner i n which management can obtain a q u a l i t a t i v e picture of the manpower being allocated to p a r t i c u l a r police functions, and i n retrospect peruse the r e s u l t s . There are several steps involved i n developing a proficiency index. The f i r s t i s to i d e n t i f y , on an a p r i o r i basis, those personal attributes believed to be s i g n i f i c a n t for the performance of police duties. Such attributes might be: (1) St. John's Ambulance t r a i n i n g , ( 2 ) sharp shooters badge, (3) academic standing i n Training Academy examinations, (4) special weapons t r a i n i n g , (5) Royal L i f e Saving C e r t i f i c a t e , (6) foreign language s k i l l s , (7) number of years experience, (8) rank, (9) scope of experience i n terms of the number of dif f e r e n t positions held for at least 6 months duration, and so on. The second step i s to determine the appropriate scale for each a t t r i b u t e . Generally, there are two types of scales, the binary scale and the cardinal scale. The binary scale i s used where there i s a simple question of either the presence or the absence of a p a r t i c u l a r a t t r i b u t e . An example of this kind of a t t r i b u t e i s the sharp shooters badge. Either an i n d i v i d u a l policeman has the badge (presence) or he hasn't (absence). In the event that he has the badge, he i s awarded a one (1). In the event that he hasn't the badge, he i s awarded a zero (0). The cardinal scale i s used for cases where 72 there i s a progression of values which an a t t r i b u t e may take. An example of t h i s kind of a t t r i b u t e i s the number of years experience. A p a r t i c u l a r policeman may have 1,2,3 ...n years of experience. In the event that he has 1 years experience, he i s awarded a one (1). In the event that he has 2 years experience, he i s awarded a two (2). In the event that he has 3 years experience, he i s awarded a three (3), and so on up to n years of experience. The t h i r d step may be omitted depending on the outlook of management. If this i s the case, the proficiency index i s calculated by summing the scale values of each of the a t t r i b u t e s . I f , on the other hand, management chooses to develop value weights for each a t t r i b u t e , i t can do so i n a number of ways. F i r s t , management can i n the l i g h t of i t s own wisdom and experience, rank these attributes according to i t s perception of the i r r e l a t i v e importance, and give each a t t r i b u t e a weight inversely related to the assigned rank. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , management can assign a value weight d i r e c t l y to each a t t r i b u t e using one of two possible methods. The f i r s t method i s to assign a weight of between 1 and 10 to each a t t r i b u t e . The second method i s to define the value weight for a p a r t i c u l a r a t t r i b u t e to be given, and then express the value weights of the remaining attributes i n terms of a multiple of the given weight. Or, f i n a l l y , the r e l a t i v e importance of each a t t r i b u t e can be determined empirically by means of multiple c o r r e l a t i o n analysis. In this instance, an index of performance, based upon some agreed upon c r i t e r i a , would be set as the dependent variable, with the various personal attributes set as the independent variables i n a multiple correlation analysis. The r e s u l t i n g p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s could then be taken as the value weights for the various at t r i b u t e s . 73 The general equation for c a l c u l a t i n g the proficiency index may be expressed as follows: P - ^ > S. W. C- 1 1 n where P = the proficiency index = the scale value of the i t h a t t r i b u t e , and = the value weight of the i t h a t t r i b u t e . Once the proficiency index has been calculated for every policeman, the average proficiency index may be calculated for any unit of policemen, whether i t be a squad, a d i v i s i o n or the entire department. The use and interp r e t a t i o n of the proficiency index w i l l be discussed i n further d e t a i l i n Section 4.4 of t h i s chapter. Direct Expense. A number of t y p i c a l items for this entry have already been suggested i n r e l a t i o n to the present recent budgets of the Vancouver and Metropolitan Toronto Police Departments. Attention now turns, however, to the s p e c i f i c items to be included i n th i s entry, and the manner i n which they s h a l l be calculated. Before addressing t h i s issue, however, one point must be made clear and, that i s , that no q u a l i t a t i v e measures of direct expense are going to be developed. In the opinion of the author, the name of each item to be contained within this entry provides s u f f i c i e n t q u a l i t a t i v e information and precludes the need to develop add i t i o n a l q u a l i t a t i v e measures. The reader w i l l r e c a l l that the rationale behind the need for qu a l i t a t i v e measures of manpower was that p o t e n t i a l , s k i l l s and a b i l i t i e s d i f f e r e d widely between any two members of the force. This, however, i s not the case with respect to direct expense items. For example, l e t us take 74 three s p e c i f i c items to be contained i n the direct expense entry: vehicles, radios and weapons. The standard police vehicle i s a four-door North American sedan. The standard police portable radio i s a Marconi Mark I I portable transmitter. The standard police weapon i s a short-nosed, 38 c a l i b r e , Smith and Wesson handgun. There i s no need to consider the q u a l i t a t i v e differences between i n d i v i d u a l police vehicles, radios or weapons. The differences i f they do e x i s t , are so i n s i g n i f i c a n t as to be meaningless to the type of analysis i n which we are engaged here. With respect to the direct expense entry for the input accounts, the general thrust of the argument i s to reduce or eliminate wherever possible the vague and nebulous overhead charges which often hide and frequently misallocate the true costs of the operation of police functions. Thus, the purpose of the suggestions made here are to make general overhead charges as small as possible, and to translate such charges into d i r e c t user costs. In order to do t h i s , i t i s necessary to establish a two-fold c r i t e r i a for determining appropriate items for consideration. This c r i t e r i a i s that (1) an item must be d i v i s i b l e , that i s , i t s costs must be capable of being broken down into those respective units absorbed by s p e c i f i c police functions; and (2) an item must be a variable cost to the function, that i s , management can vary the quantity of the item absorbed by a p a r t i c u l a r function at w i l l . For s p e c i f i c items to be charged d i r e c t l y to the functions which absorb them, i t i s necessary to establish appropriate charge-out rates for each i n d i v i d u a l item to be contained within the direct expense entry. Let us consider three s p e c i f i c examples contained within the 1973 budget of the 75 Vancouver Police Department:. (1) detention f a c i l i t i e s , (2) transportation, and (3) buildings operation and maintenance. The general p r i n c i p l e to be followed i n developing charge-out rates for each item of the direct expense entry, i s for next year's charge-out rates to be based on t h i s year's costs and usage rates. Thus, using 1973 costs and rates of usage, the charge-out rates for 1974 can be calculated. Table 4.3 below presents actual cost data and hypothetical rates of usage for 1973, and the r e s u l t i n g 1974 charge-out rates, for the three cost items: detention f a c i l i t i e s , transportation and bui l d i n g operation and maintenance. TABLE 4.3 Calculation of 1974 Charge-Out Rates for Three Specific Items of the Direct Expense Entry • (1) (2) (D/(2) = (3) Items Costs Usage Rates Charge-Out Rates Detention F a c i l i t i e s $609,754 6,083 Man-Days $100.24/Man-Day Transportation $536,936 2,684,680 Miles $ 0.20/Miles Building Operation $ 2 71,090 250,000 sq f t $ 1.08/sq f t and Maintenance Source: Vancouver Police Department Annual Report, 1973 (costs only) Note: Usage rates are hypothetical The 1974 charge-out rates are calculated by d i v i d i n g 1973 costs by 1973 usage rates for each item. I t can be seen from a perusal of the Table that charge-out rates d i f f e r among items not only i n terms of magnitude of the charge, but also i n terms of units of measurement. For instance, detention f a c i l i t i e s are charged on the basis of man-days, transportation on the 76 basis of miles, and bui l d i n g operation and maintenance on the basis of square-feet. To i l l u s t r a t e the end re s u l t of t h i s procedure, l e t us compare an entry as i t now i s to an entry as i t i s proposed. In order to do th i s with a minimum of confusion, several s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s are necessary. F i r s t , l e t us assume that there are only three police functions: the c i t i z e n complaint function, the investigation function and the community p o l i c i n g function. Second, l e t us assume that there are only three items i n the direct expense entry: detention f a c i l i t i e s , transportation and building operation and maintenance. Table 4.4 presents t i e direct expense entry as i t now i s . And, Table 4.5 presents the direct expense entry as i t i s .proposed. TABLE 4.4 Present Direct Expense Entry  Items Costs Detention F a c i l i t i e s $609,754.00 Transportation $536,936.00 Building Operation and Maintenance $271,090.00 TOTAL COST $1,417,780.00 Source: Vancouver Police Annuax Report, 1973 Entry (a) Usage Police Functions Detention F a c i l i t i e s Transportation (Miles) Building Operation and Maintenance (Man-Days) (Square-Feet) C i t i z e n Complaint 608 1,610,808 25,000 Investigation 4,258 805,404 125,000 Community P o l i c i n g 1,217 268,468 100,000 TOTAL USAGE 6,083 (b) Cost 2,684,680 250,000 Detention Police Functions F a c i l i t i e s (Dollars) „ • . ..• Building Operation TVYTAT PHCT Transportation , „ .° TOTAL COST .„ s and Maintenance /T* I -I \ (Dollars) _, \ (Dollars) (Square-Feet) C i t i z e n Complaint 60,945.32 322,161.60 27,109.00 410,215.92 Investigation 426,817.80 161,080.80 135,545.00 723,443.60 Community P o l i c i n g 121,990.88 53,683.60 108,436.00 284,120.48 TOTAL COST 609,754.00 536,936.00 271,090.00 1,417.780.00 Source: Vancouver Police Department Annual Report, 1973 (costs only) Note: Usage Rates are purely hypothetical 78 The advantage of the proposed direct expense entry presented i n Table 4.5 i s that i t allows a functional breakdown of pol i c e costs. The cost of manpower, obtained from the manpower entry of the input account, and the sum of direct expenses, obtained from the direct expense entry of the input account, provide i n d o l l a r terms a measure of resource input for each police function. I t i s just such a measure which i s es s e n t i a l i f the process of program evaluation i s to be complete and of maximum effectiveness. Complete i n the sense that a l l of the f i v e central questions of program evaluation can be answered. And, of maximum effectiveness i n that impact e f f i c i e n c y , the r a t i o of input to impact, can be calculated. Overhead. There w i l l be a p r a c t i c a l l i m i t beyond which p a r t i c u l a r operating costs of the Department cannot or should not be charged d i r e c t l y to police functions. There appear to be three s p e c i f i c cases when th i s i s so. F i r s t , when the cost of a par t i c u l a r item i s not d i v i s i b l e among the various functions which make use of i t , then i t would not be possible to a l l o c a t e , accurately, the t o t a l cost of the item among functions. An example of such an item would be the Chief Constable's salary. Second, when the cost of a par t i c u l a r item i s fixed, not variable at the di s c r e t i o n of management, i t should not be allocated to functions. An example of such an item would be the police t r a i n i n g academy. And, t h i r d , when the cost of a p a r t i c u l a r item i s so small that a l l o c a t i o n to functions would prove unnecessarily costly. Most items now c l a s s i f i e d as miscellaneous would probably f a l l into this category. In each of these cases, costs should be considered as part of the general overhead of the Department, and no attempt should be made to allocate these costs to functions. Thus, the input accounts for police functions would not include an overhead entry. 79 4.4 Areas i n Need of Further Refinement and Research Of a l l three performance accounts being proposed i n t h i s thesis the input, output and impact accounts - the input account w i l l probably be the most e a s i l y implemented. A l l of the items i t contains are already recorded i n the e x i s t i n g accounting system. The d i f f i c u l t y w i l l be i n disaggregating the t o t a l costs of d i r e c t expense items and a l l o c a t i n g them, accurately, to the police functions which use these items i n the production of t h e i r output. Manpower. To the extent that the organizational structure of the Department i s consistent with the execution of police functions, the cost of manpower for each function may already be attainable. For instance, the Primary Investigation Squad of the Bureau of F i e l d Operations deals almost exclusively with the c i t i z e n complaint function. Therefore, the t o t a l cost of manpower for that function i s merely the t o t a l cost of manpower for that squad. However, there are many cases where such a coincidence of organizational unit and execution of police function does not occur. In such instances, time cards could be introduced which would record to the nearest half-hour the various police functions carried out by a p a r t i c u l a r squad of policemen. I t i s anticipated that most of the entries on time cards could e a s i l y be standardized because of the routine nature of many police a c t i v i t i e s . This procedure should not be considered superfluous or impractical. Most progressive organizations-, engaged i n much more varied and less readily definable tasks, already operate on a s i m i l a r time card system as that being proposed here. Direct Expense. In the case of this entry of the input account, the major d i f f i c u l t i e s w i l l l i k e l y be the development of appropriate charge-out rates for those items which s a t i s f y the c r i t e r i a set forth for the d i r e c t expense 80 entry. And, the conceptualization and implementation of appropriate methods by which usage of such items can be recorded on a function by function basis. However, some headway has been made already. A c r i t e r i a which indicates whether an item should be charged d i r e c t l y to functions has been proposed, and a technique to be used i n developing charge-out rates has been suggested. Overhead. In terms of the functional input accounts proposed i n this chapter, the overhead entry i s to be omitted. I f the manpower and d i r e c t expense entries are developed as specified i n the foregoing paragraphs, the overhead entry w i l l contain those items which are inappropriate or i n s i g n i f i c a n t for the purpose of program evaluation. As a separate entry i n i t s e l f , however, the overhead of the Department can be compared to that of other police organ-izations as a measure of control. 4.5 Concluding Remarks It i s expected that the most convenient, and hence the most frequently used, input measure w i l l be the t o t a l cost i n d o l l a r terms of a l l resources absorbed by police functions. Dollars provide an i r r e s i s t a b l e common denominator i n terms of which a l l kinds and types of inputs may be aggregated to provide the much sought after t o t a l functional cost. Thus, i t i s anticipated that t h i s w i l l be the input measure most frequently used i n c a l c u l a t i n g output e f f i c i e n c y and impact e f f i c i e n c y for purposes of program evaluation. However, the non-monetary measures of input, such as the number of policemen, the proficiency index, and the number of pa t r o l units on the street, w i l l have an important part to play i n the follow-up analysis of production 81 functions and s o c i a l welfare functions which i s ess e n t i a l i f appropriate and speedy remedial action i s to be taken i n response to a negative program evaluation. The reason for t h i s i s that cost does not always r e f l e c t the true quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e aspect of resources input to a p a r t i c u l a r function. Costs, after a l l , are generally determined by i n an economic market which may eas i l y d i s t o r t and bias the contribution that a p a r t i c u l a r input may have to a function's productivity or effectiveness. For example, a l l f i r s t class constables receive the same wage because of the c o l l e c t i v e bargaining process. Howevar, the average proficiency of one squad of f i r s t class constables may be s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher than that of another, i n spite of the fact that the t o t a l cost of manpower for each squad i s the same. And, furthermore, the squad with a higher average proficiency may w e l l have a higher productivity and hence effectiveness, than a squad with a lower average proficiency performing the same function. A more case oriented demonstration of the use and in t e r p r e t a t i o n of the input account w i l l be made i n the next three chapters. For i n the context of program evaluation, and for purposes of this thesis we must r e s t r i c t ourselves to that topic, the input account i s not used alone, but i n conjunction with the output and impact accounts. Thus, a consolidated set of a l l three accounts w i l l be presented for each of the three police programs and thei r supporting functions i n Chapters 5, 6 and 7 which follow immediately. 82 CHAPTER 5 THE CRIME PREVENTION PROGRAM AND ITS SUPPORTING FUNCTIONS 5.1 Introduction There are three police programs which w i l l be dealt with i n this and two subsequent chapters. They are the Crime Prevention Program, the Public Safety Program, and the Apprehension and Recovery Program. In the context of the criminal process - prevention, c r i s i s intervention and remedial or corrective strategies - the crime prevention program i s l o g i c a l l y the f i r s t i n the sequence. There are three purposes of th i s chapter. The f i r s t i s to i d e n t i f y indicators of output for the functions contained within the Crime Prevention Program, and to i d e n t i f y indicators of the desirable impacts of these functions i n the context of that program. The second i s to i l l u s t r a t e how these measures can be employed to answer the fi v e central questions of program evaluation, and the implications of the answers for resource a l l o c a t i o n within the Vancouver Police Department. And, l a s t l y , this chapter w i l l attempt to pinpoint areas i n need of further refinement and research i f these concepts are to become f u l l y operational. The Crime Prevention Program of the Vancouver Police Department has four goals: (1) to repress criminal a c t i v i t y , (2) to reduce opportunities for crime, (3) to encourage community s e l f - p o l i c i n g , and (4) to retard the 83 development of c r i m i n a l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n youth. Five functions of the Department were seen as alternative strategies for achieving the goals of the Crime Prevention Program. These were: (1) the public education function, (2) the youth counselling function, (3) the community p o l i c i n g function, (4) the preventive patrol function, and (5) the enforcement function. I f the reader wishes to refresh his understanding of these functions, he i s referred to Chapter 3, pages 54 to 56, where they have been described i n d e t a i l . 5.2 Proposed Entries for the Output Account In order to develop indicators of output for the functions of the Crime Prevention Program, the production functions of each of the police functions contained i n the Program were c a r e f u l l y examined. Both quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output were sought. As a r e s u l t of this scrutiny, a number of indicators have been i d e n t i f i e d . They are discussed below under the heading of each function. . The Public Education Function. Many types of a c t i v i t i e s could f a l l under the guise of the public education function. In this i t d i f f e r s from most other police functions which usually consist of a routine set of a c t i v i t i e s which often occur i n a l o g i c a l sequence or natural progression. Such functions are the c i t i z e n complaint function, the preventive p a t r o l function, the enforcement function and the investigation function, to name but a few. In contrast to these more conventional police functions, the public education function demands innovation and creative i n i t i a t i v e and hence eludes a generalized treatment here. However, l e t us take three examples of the type of a c t i v i t i e s which f a l l within our d e f i n i t i o n of t h i s function and examine each of them for indicators of output. 84 The f i r s t example i s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of "Crime-Stop" b u l l e t i n s to residents o f the K i t s i l a n o area of Vancouver Ci t y . In t h i s instance, the number of pamphlets dist r i b u t e d to residents i s an obvious quantitative indicator of r e a l output (for a discussion of the d i s t i n c t i o n between r e a l output and output capacity, see Chapter 2, pages 30 to 31). Qualita t i v e indicators o f output f o r th i s type of a c t i v i t y , however, appear elusive. The second example i s a door-to-door community relations campaign by police members to residents of the West End area of the Cit y . The purpose of t h i s a c t i v i t y was to increase awareness of crime occurring i n the area and to attempt to engender a s p i r i t of community s e l f - p o l i c i n g i n the residents l i v i n g there. In t h i s case, the number of v i s i t s made by police i s an obvious quantitative indicator of output of th i s a c t i v i t y . Again, however, q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output do not appear to readily present themselves. The f i n a l example i s a c a r e f u l l y composed press-release to l o c a l Vancouver newspapers warning of the recent upswing i n the number of bicycles stolen throughout the City and advising bicycle owners of several p r a c t i c a l precautions they may take i n order to safeguard the i r bicycles from also being stolen. The number of l i n e s of press coverage i n l o c a l newspapers i s a quantitative indicator of the rea l output of t h i s a c t i v i t y . Qualitative i n d i c a t o r s , once again, do not seem to be readily apparent. The Youth Counselling Function. This police function, l i k e the one before i t , i s not a t r a d i t i o n a l police a c t i v i t y . Therefore, as i n the case of the public education function, the type of a c t i v i t i e s which f a l l w ithin the d e f i n i t i o n o f the youth counselling function may vary considerably from time 85 to time. However, as i t i s currently constituted, two types of a c t i v i t i e s are frequently associated with this function i n the Department. The f i r s t of these i s the advisory counselling sessions which are held with parents who are having d i f f i c u l t y i n managing t h e i r juvenile offspring. In such cases, the t o t a l number of families with whom sessions have been held, and the t o t a l number of juveniles which were the subject of discussion at these sessions are possible quantitative indicators of output. The second type of a c t i v i t y associated with the youth counselling function i s the classroom presentations made by members of the force i n which they explain the role of police i n the community to students at the school. In such instances, the t o t a l number of presentations, and the t o t a l number of students attending these presentations are possible quantitative indicators of output. In both types of a c t i v i t i e s , however, measurable q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output do not appear to be generated. The Community P o l i c i n g Function. Because of their continual on-street presence, police are i n a unique position to i d e n t i f y and monitor the growth and development of many criminal and s o c i a l problems which may emerge i n various neighbourhoods of the C i t y . Therefore, this function refers to police i n i t i a t i v e i n i d e n t i f y i n g criminal and s o c i a l problems i n the community, and convincing other s o c i a l agencies that they must become involved i f the problems are to be ultimately resolved. And, i f no other appropriate agency steps f o r t h to take the lead, police w i l l ultimately co-ordinate and direct the comp-rehensive s o c i a l program which has been drawn up by a l l p a r t i c i p a t i n g agencies. Once the program i s underway, police w i l l normally assume thei r conventional functions i n a supportive role within the program, such as enforcement. The output of the s o c i a l program which i s c r y s t a l i z e d as the r e s u l t of police i n i t i a t i v e i s not the output of the community p o l i c i n g function. P o l i c e 86 output for this function i s actually measured i n terms of the input of other s o c i a l agencies. The question which output should answer i s how active and how convincing have police been i n drawing resources from other sectors of the community to combat the underlying s o c i a l , economic and psychological causes of c r i m i n a l i t y i n the City? I f th i s view i s correct, then, possible indicators of t h i s function's output are the t o t a l number of comprehensive s o c i a l programs active i n the City which have been i n i t i a t e d by polic e , and the t o t a l d o l l a r cost of resources being applied to these programs by other s o c i a l service agencies. The Preventive Patrol Function. The preventive p a t r o l function, l i k e the c i t i z e n complaint and investigation functions, i s closely i n t e r - r e l a t e d with the enforcement function. Perhaps i t i s the underlying threat of enforcement inherent i n preventive patrol which acts as an ef f e c t i v e deterent against crime. Or, perhaps i t i s the fact that enforcement may come about as a result of preventive p a t r o l . But, regardless of the basis for this i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p , i t should be understood that enforcement may form a part of the preventive pa t r o l function. Abstracting enforcement from preventive patrol for the time being, several quantitative indicators of output have been i d e n t i f i e d for the more comprehensive function. These are the t o t a l number of persons checked for i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , the t o t a l number of vehicles searched for stolen property or contraband goods, and the t o t a l number of premises checked for security during the p a t r o l . Once again, q u a l i t a t i v e indicators do not seem readily apparent. The Enforcement Function. This function consists of three essential a c t i v i t i e s : (1) observation of an offense being committed; (2) apprehension of the offender at the scene; and (3) arresting the offender or issuing him a 87 summons. The quantitative indicator of output for the enforcement function appears to be the t o t a l number of arrests made or summons issued, while the qu a l i t a t i v e indicator of output appears to be the percentage of t o t a l arrests and summons which result i n convictions. In conclusion, i t should be recognized that the comprehensive nature of th i s study precludes the extensive a n a l y t i c a l treatment that each of these functions j u s t i f i e s . In many cases, a single function could w e l l require a f u l l study i n i t s e l f . The p a r t i c u l a r weaknesses of this presentation are the lack of q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output and the need for an examination of the interface and int e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p between functions. However, i t was f e l t that at this stage of development of performance accounts for police that the more appropriate f i r s t step would be a broad brush treatment of the entire organization, before homing i n on s p e c i f i c functions and p a r t i c u l a r problem areas. The following section i d e n t i f i e s indicators of desirable impact for the functions of the Crime Prevention Program. 5.3 Proposed Entries for the Impact Account Each police function has a m u l t i p l i c i t y of impacts, some of which may be considered desirable (program goals), and some of which may be considered undesirable. For example, one of the favorable impacts of the preventive patrol function i s the reduction i n criminal a c t i v i t y i n the area being patrolled. This i s one of the goals of the Crime Prevention Program. However, 88 one of the unfavorable impacts of this function i s the harrassment of private c i t i z e n s r e s u l t i n g from checking t h e i r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and searching t h e i r vehicles, which i s a l l part of the preventive p a t r o l process. Within the time and scope of th i s thesis, i t would be impossible to i d e n t i f y a l l and every impact of each function. I t was therefore decided to discuss only those impacts which are d i r e c t l y linked to program goals, that i s , those impacts which are considered i n terms of society's values to be desirable. A problem to be overcome i n a l l s o c i a l indicator research i s that of being able to measure change - s o c i a l , economic, physical and psychological changes - which may occur as a result of direct intervention or interaction with the s o c i a l environment. One can readily conceptualize s o c i a l indicators. There i s no lack of creative talent here. But when i t comes to the p r a c t i c a l question of measuring, recording and c o l l e c t i n g these ind i c a t o r s , many conceptualized indicators are found to be lacking. In order for measurement of s o c i a l indicators to be possible, there must be some perceptible sign or manifestation of change. The key to measurement i s perception. Man's a b i l i t y to perceive change i n the s o c i a l environment i s inextricably linked to his capacity to sense change. If he cannot see, hear, f e e l , smell or taste change, he i s for a l l p r a c t i c a l purposes unaware that change i s ac t u a l l y occurring. True, there may be mechanical extensions of man's senses which w i l l enable him to perceive change beyond the natural capacity of his organism, but i n the arena of s o c i a l measurement, the development of such mechanical aids i s fa r , far into the future. This discussion has relevance for measuring the impact of s o c i a l programs, p a r t i c u l a r l y the impact of the Crime Prevention Program of the Police Department. 89 None of the four desirable impacts of this program can be measured d i r e c t l y , precisely because of the issues raised i n the preceding paragraphs. The physical and economic dimensions of change can be measured most of the time, the s o c i a l dimension of change can be measured some of the time, but the psychological dimension of change cannot be measured most of the time. I t i s precisely t h i s psychological element of change which remains elusive when attempting to measure the desirable impact of the Crime Prevention Program and i t s supporting functions. Figure 5.1 on the following page attempts to i l l u s t r a t e t h i s point. 90 FIGURE 5.1 Social Linkages i n the Prevention of Crime Encourage Community S e l f - p o l i c i n g Repress Latent Criminal A c t i v i t i e s ncidence of pportunities for rime i n the ommunity Frequency and Seriousness of Crime Incidence of Cr i m i n a l i t y in the Population Reduce Opportunities for Crime Retard Development of Cr i m i n a l i t y Victims: - economic - physical and - psychological^ impacts Criminals: Social Impact • • LEGEND = Social Elements = Linkages = Goals of Crime Prevention Program 91 The f i r s t goal of the Crime Prevention Program i s "to repress latent criminal a c t i v i t y " . This goal relates to the desirable impact of the preventive p a t r o l function, that of repressing latent crime. Here the key word i s l a t e n t , meaning "present and capable of becoming though not now v i s i b l e or active " (Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary, 1973). This refers to those cases where the opportunity for crime has already been perceived, and perhaps a plan has already been formulated, but the criminal act i t s e l f has not yet been carried out. Given e x i s t i n g techniques of perception and measurement, i t i s v i r t u a l l y impossible to measure whether or not a latent crime has been f o r e s t a l l e d , i n d e f i n i t e l y postponed or ultimately called off completely because of the demonstrated presence of police i n the v i c i n i t y of the scene of the latent crime. The only measurable change i s that which may occur i n the frequency and seriousness of crime occurring i n that area of the Cit y . The second goal of the Crime Prevention Program i s "to reduce the opportunities for crime". This goal relates to the desirable impact of the public education function, that of increasing public awareness of the opportunities for crime i n the community, and advising them of p r a c t i c a l precautionary measures which can be taken i n order to reduce or eliminate these opportunities. Let us take a s p e c i f i c example for purpose of i l l u s t r a t i o n . Assume that i n recent weeks nurses going off the afternoon s h i f t at St. Paul's Hospital i n Vancouver have been molested and i n more severe cases raped while walking home to their apartments i n the West End of the City . One of the moves taken'by police to reduce the frequency of such incidents was to d i s t r i b u t e "Crime-Stop" b u l l e t i n s to nurses working at St. Paul's Hospital and l i v i n g i n the West End. The b u l l e t i n warned them of the dangers i n walking home alone a f t e r s h i f t , and suggested several a l t e r n a t i v e ways of 92 getting home which would avoid placing them i n such a vulnerable pos i t i o n . At t h i s point, however, the question i s raised. How i s one to measure the extent to which nurses who were sent the b u l l e t i n a ctually read i t , took to heart the advice offerred by p o l i c e , and. as a re s u l t acted to reduce the opportunity for molesting and rape i n that area of the C i t y . Once again, the analyst i s forced to r e l y upon the frequency and seriousness of molestings and rapes i n the area, subsequent to the public education campaign, as the only available measure of desirable impact. The t h i r d goal of the Crime Prevention Program i s "to promote and encourage community s e l f - p o l i c i n g " . This goal relates to the desirable impact of the public education function, that of making l o c a l c i t i z e n s more a l e r t to crime which may be occurring i n t h e i r neighbourhood and of encouraging them to report promptly to police any suspicious persons or a c t i v i t i e s which they observe i n their area. Let us take a s p e c i f i c example for purpose of i l l u s t r a t i o n . The incidence of r e s i d e n t i a l break and entering, l e t us assume, i s increasing rapidly i n the West Point Grey area of the Ciiiy. One of the steps taken by police to h a l t t h i s trend i s a door-to-door community relations campaign designed to a l e r t l o c a l c i t i z e n s to the problem i n their area and to encourage them to report immediately to police any suspicious persons or a c t i v i t i e s which they may observe i n their v i c i n i t y . In this case, one of the possible indicators of impact of thlz campaign i s the r e s u l t i n g increase i n the number of complaints received by police from residents of the area regarding suspicious persons and a c t i v i t i e s occurring i n the i r neighbourhood. The ultimate impact of t h i s function upon the incidence of r e s i d e n t i a l break and entering i n the area, however, w i l l depend upon police response to these complaints. 93 The fourth and f i n a l goal of the Crime Prevention Program i s "to retard the development of c r i m i n a l i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n youth". This goal relates to the desirable impact of the youth counselling function, that of counselling young people i n society. And, also, i t relates to the desirable impact of the community p o l i c i n g function, that of addressing the s o c i a l , economic and psychological root causes of c r i m i n a l i t y through a comprehensive s o c i a l program. Cri m i n a l i t y , i t w i l l be r e c a l l e d , i s the propensity, mental attitude or state of mind which allows an i n d i v i d u a l to commit criminal acts whenever the opportunity arises. Unfortunately, the presence or absence of c r i m i n a l i t y i n the human psyche cannot as yet be measured. Thus, once again, the analyst i s forced to f a l l back upon the crime rate as the only available measure of the desirable impact of the Crime Prevention Program. In the foregoing discussion, i t became apparent that there are only two indicators of the desirable impact of the Crime Prevention Program. These are the frequency and seriousness of crime occurring i n the City, and the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints. The f i r s t indicator can be related to a l l goals of the program, while the second indicator can only be related to the t h i r d goal. Both indicators demand further q u a l i f i c a t i o n which i s provided i n the following paragraphs. 5.4 Factors Affecting the Crime Rate The crime rate must be considered the primary indicator of the impact of the Crime Prevention Program. But behind this apparently straightforward index l i e several s i g n i f i c a n t factors which must be taken into consideration before an accurate interpretation of i t can be made. These factors are: 94 (1) the r e p o r t a b i l i t y rate for di f f e r e n t types of crime; (2) the r e l a t i v e seriousness of di f f e r e n t crimes; (3) the area of the c i t y i n which the crime has occurred; and, (4) the period of time over which crime occurs. 5.4.1 The Level of Reportability The r e p o r t a b i l i t y rate, for a pa r t i c u l a r type of crime, i s the t o t a l frequency of that crime reported to police, as a percentage of the total, frequency of that crime actually occurring. From an estimate of r e p o r t a b i l i t y , the pr o b a b i l i t y that an offense w i l l be reported to polic e , can be inferred. S e l l i n and Wolfgang (1964) suggest that there are f i v e broad classes of crime, according to the l e v e l of r e p o r t a b i l i t y : (1) consensual offenses, (2) c o n s p i r a t o r i a l offenses, (3) hidden i n d i v i d u a l offenses, (4) offenses whose r e p o r t a b i l i t y i s affected by the extent of police a c t i v i t y ; (5) offenses with serious bodily injury, loss of, or damage to property. The f i r s t three types of offense are considered to have "low" r e p o r t a b i l i t y , while only the f i f t h i s considered to have "high" r e p o r t a b i l i t y . The lack of preciseness i n estimating percentage r e p o r t a b i l i t y , i s an i n d i c a t i o n of the lack of knowledge which exists concerning r e p o r t a b i l i t y rates of di f f e r e n t types of crime. U n t i l more accurate and r e l i a b l e r e p o r t a b i l i t y rates are determined, the relationship between the crime rate, for a p a r t i c u l a r type of offense, and the actual frequency of occurrence of that offense, w i l l remain i n serious doubt. The crime rate for offenses involving r e l a t i v e l y s i g n i f i c a n t physical injury and property loss to the victim, may be an accurate indicator for those types of crime. Nevertheless, there i s an urgent need to determine the degree of accuracy of reported crimes as measures of the actual frequency of crimes occurring. 95 5.4.2 The Seriousness of Crime When evaluating the impact of crime upon the v i c t i m , three elements of impact appear to be s i g n i f i c a n t : (1) the physical; (2) the economic; and (3) the psychological impacts. Psychological impact i s l i s t e d t h i r d , because i t i s believed to arise from a combination of, or in t e r a c t i o n with, the previous two. The psychological impact of crime may vary, according to the temperament or psychological make-up of the victim. However, the physical and economic impact of crime can be recorded i n consistent units i n order to a r r i v e at a r e l i a b l e index of the r e l a t i v e seriousness of crime. The least contentious scheme involves the weighting of crime according to i t s r e l a t i v e seriousness on a simple ordinal ranking scale. The fact that current crime rates do not take into consideration the r e l a t i v e seriousness of reported crime means that any changes i n the impact of crime upon i t s victims i s not recorded. This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y important when the crime index contains a wide variety of crimes with s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t levels of impact upon victims. The point to be made i s that crime prevention functions may have a considerable impact upon the l e v e l of seriousness of crime occurring i n the c i t y . However, i f the crime index as currently constituted does not measure such changes, the erroneous conclusion w i l l be that the crime prevention functions have no impact. 5.4.3 Areas i n the City Accurate and r e l i a b l e monitors of the frequency and seriousness of crime, for p a r t i c u l a r areas within the c i t y , are extremely important i f the effectiveness 96 of s p e c i f i c crime prevention functions i s to be corre c t l y evaluated. Ideally, the reporting of crime should be incorporated into a city-wide geocoding system which has already been developed for Vancouver by the municipal engineering department. The need for a geocoded system of crime reporting i s so that the frequency and seriousness of crime can be measured for s p e c i f i c target areas of the c i t y i n which crime prevention functions are being carried out by police, and other s o c i a l agencies. 5.4.4 The Period of Time Over Which Crime Occurs Many factors have a s i g n i f i c a n t influence upon the length of time between i n i t i a t i o n of a police crime prevention function i n a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y , and when the impact of that function upon crime i n that area may be f e l t . The most obvious difference i n the time lags of crime prevention functions can be i l l u s t r a t e d by comparing the preventive pa t r o l function and the youth counselling function. Preventive patrol has the most immediate effect upon crime i n i t s area of application. But, not only i s the impact of i t s application immediate, but also the impact of i t s withdrawal. Thus, measurement of the effectiveness of the preventive pa t r o l function must be extremely time oriented. An inappropriate choice of the time period of analysis might lead to the erroneous conclusion that preventive p a t r o l had been i n e f f e c t i v e , and hence police performance poor. Whereas what actually i s reflected i s the fact that t h i s p a r t i c u l a r strategy of crime prevention has l i t t l e , i f no, l a s t i n g impact upon crime i n an area. 97 On the other hand, the youth counselling strategy may be slow i n showing r e s u l t s , but then the impact may be more l a s t i n g . In contrast to the preventive p a t r o l strategy, youth counselling i s slower at producing r e s u l t s , but then has a more l a s t i n g impact. The point to be made, however, i s that the time period of analysis i s very c r i t i c a l when attempting to ascertain the true impact of a p a r t i c u l a r crime prevention strategy. The type of strategy largely determines the parameters which should be considered when choosing an appropriate time period of analysis. In conclusion, i t i s evident from the foregoing discussion that several major refinements must be made in the crime index, as now constituted, i n order for i t to be an accurate and r e l i a b l e indicator of impact for the Crime Prevention Program. 5.5 Factors Affecting the Frequency of C i t i z e n Complaint There are three factors which appear to have a s i g n i f i c a n t effect upon the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints o r i g i n a t i n g from a p a r t i c u l a r area of the City. These are: (1) population density, (2) socio-economic status, and (3) recent police a c t i v i t y i n the area. 5.5.1 Population Density For crime to occur i s a necessary, but not s u f f i c i e n t condition for crime to be recorded. I n i t i a l l y , crime i s either experienced or discovered by the 98 v i c t i m , or observed by a passer-by. The density of population i n a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y has an influence upon the number of p o t e n t i a l victims and the number of potential observers of crime. Thus, i t would seem that the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints to police from a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y would be p o s i t i v e l y correlated with the population density of that area. 5.5.2 Socio-Economic Status While the f i r s t step i n the flow of information to p o l i c e i s the experience, discovery or observation of the event, the second i s the perception of that event as a serious crime which should be reported to police. Socio-economic status of a neighbourhood has some influence on the perception of an event as a serious crime. Police often use the example of a drunk walking down the street of an upper class area of the c i t y , as opposed to the same drunk walking down the street i n the Skid Road area of town. In the f i r s t instance the incident i s surely reported, i n the second, i t may go v i r t u a l l y unnoticed. Thus, i t would seem that the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints to police from a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y would be p o s i t i v e l y correlated with the socio-economic status of the residents l i v i n g there. 5.5.3 Nature of Recent Police A c t i v i t y Depending upon the nature of police a c t i v i t y i n an area, this factor may be p o s i t i v e l y or inversely related to the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints orig i n a t i n g from that area. I f , on the one hand, residents become aware through t h e i r own perception of an increased police presence, then, the frequency of complaints to police from that area may f a l l . On the other hand, i f a door-to-door public education campaign-by police has encouraged residents 99 to be a l e r t to suspicious persons or a c t i v i t i e s occurring i n their neighbourhood and to report them immediately to police, then, the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints may r i s e . Thus, the nature of recent police a c t i v i t y i n a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y , may have a s i g n i f i c a n t effect upon the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints ori g i n a t i n g from that area. I t may be concluded, therefore, that the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints as an indicator of the impact of the Crime Prevention Program i n a p a r t i c u l a r area of the c i t y , must be c a r e f u l l y interpreted, keeping i n mind these three important factors discussed above. 5.6 Use and Interpretation of Input, Output and Impact Accounts for the Crime Prevention Program  The process of program evaluation as defined i n this thesis consists of s i x i n t e g r a l steps: 1. conceptualization of indicators of input, output and impact for each police function 2. expressing goals i n terms of indicators of impact and operating ob-j e c t i v e s in terms of indicators of output, for each function 3. c o l l e c t i n g indicators of input, output and impact for the reporting period under consideration 4. answering the f i v e central questions of program evaluation 5. interpreting the results and 6. confirming present a l l o c a t i o n or r e - a l l o c a t i n g resources consistent with t h i s interpretation. 100 In order to i l l u s t r a t e how this process operates for the Crime Prevention Program, l e t us consider a concrete example. Construction of the Granville Streel M a l l i n Vancouver i n 1974 focused attention on making that area of the c i t y an a t t r a c t i v e and appealing place for the general population. One of the problems i n making the M a l l a safer place to be was the high incidence of crime occurring i n the area. To combat t h i s problem, the Pol i c e Department decided to increase preventive p a t r o l of the area from two to four constables per s h i f t . Table 5.1 below presents the performance accounts for the Granville Street area of the City for the f i r s t quarter of 1974. TABLE 5.1 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Crime Prevention Program, Preventive P a t r o l Function: Granville Street A r e a , January 1 to March 31, 19 74 (Shift Averages) INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT Manpower: 2 Constables Average Proficiency Index 7.5 Total Cost $100.00 Number of Persons Checked 30 Number of Rounds of the Beat 10 Total Crime Reported to P o l i c e : - Frequency 100 - Average Degree of Seriousness 7.5 Total Complaints Maife to P olice: - Frequency 150 - Average Degree of Seriousness 2.5 After reviewing the accounts for the period January 1 to March 31, 1974, the police decide that there i s need for improvement i n the crime s i t u a t i o n along the Granville M a l l , and move to establish goals and operating objectives i n terms of the indicators of impact and output entered i n the accounts, as follows: 101 Goals - the frequency of crime should be no more than 25 per s h i f t - the seriousness of crime should be no more than 6.5 per s h i f t - the frequency of complaints should be no more than 50 per s h i f t - the seriousness .of complaints should be no more than 1.5 per s h i f t Operating Objectives at least 50 persons should be checked per s h i f t at least 30 rounds of the beat should be made per s h i f t At the end of the second quarter of the year, the police evaluated the i r program on the basis of the performance accounts presented i n Table 5.2 below. INPUT TABLE 5.2 Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Crime Prevention Program, Preventive Pa t r o l Function: Granville Street Area, A p r i l 1 to June 30, 1974 (Shift Averages) OUTPUT IMPACT Manpower: 4 Constables Average Proficiency Index 7.5 Total Cost $200.00 Number of Persons Checked 40 Number of Rounds of the Beat 25 Total Crime Reported to P o l i c e : - Frequency 50 - Average Degree of Seriousness 7.0 Total Complaints Made to P o l i c e : - Frequency 100 - Average Degree of Seriousness 2.0 102 After a detailed review of the performance accounts, the police made the following conclusions. Goals generally f e l l short of th e i r target. During the second quarter, the frequency of crime was 50 per s h i f t with an average seriousness of 7.0 as compared with the target of 25 per s h i f t and an average seriousness of 6.5. Furthermore, the frequency of c i t i z e n complaints was an average of 100 per s h i f t with an average seriousness of 2.0, as compared with the target of 50 per s h i f t with an average seriousness of 1.5. (It should be noted here that seriousness of crime i s measured on a maximum scale of 10, while seriousness of complaints i s measured on a maximum scale of 3. Complaints are given a p r i o r i t y of 1, 2 or 3 according to their degree of seriousness. A weight i s then assigned to each complaint, inversely related to i t s p r i o r i t y . ) Calculation of impact e f f i c i e n c y , that i s , the r a t i o of input to impact, revealed that for every additional two dollars of input, the frequency of crime as w e l l as the frequency of complaints dropped by two. Furthermore, an alternative measure of impact e f f i c i e n c y revealed that for every $200.00 additional expenditure the seriousness of crime and of complaints dropped by one point. Operating objectives generally f e l l short of their target. During t h i s period, only an average of 40 persons per s h i f t were being checked, as compared with the target of 50 persons; and, only an average of 25 rounds of the beat per s h i f t were being made, as compared with the target of 30 rounds. Output e f f i c i e n c y had risen i n terms of one indicator and f a l l e n i n terms of another. In terms of the number of persons checked, output e f f i c i e n c y 103 dropped from 15 persons to 10 persons checked per constable. In terms of the number of rounds of the beat, output e f f i c i e n c y rose from 1 round to 1.25 rounds of the beat for every $10.00 cost. Selected measures of effectiveness revealed that for every addi t i o n a l person checked i n the area the frequency of crime dropped by 5, for every additional round of the beat c i t i z e n complaints dropped by 3. The police concluded from t h i s program evaluation that their goals and operating objectives had not yet been f u l l y attained, but that marginal impact eff i c i e n c y was s u f f i c i e n t to suggest that a further augmentation of the quality or quantity of manpower allocated to the beat might y i e l d improved re s u l t s . They could not afford, however, to spend any more funds on this project as t h e i r budget was l i m i t e d . They therefore decided to improve the quality of manpower allocated to the beat, since to increase the quantity would have forced them to overspend thei r budget. They thus allocated th e i r four best police constables to patrol the area. This decision i s reflected i n the increase i n the proficiency index from 7.5 to 8.5. At the end of the t h i r d quarter of the year, the police again evaluated their program on the basis of the performance accounts presented i n Table 5.3 on the following page. 104 TABLE 5.3 INPUT Hypothetical Entries for the Input, Output and Impact Accounts of the Crime Prevention Program, Preventive P a t r o l Function: Gran v i l l e Street Area, July 1 to September 30, 1974 (Shift Averages) OUTPUT Manpower: 4- Constables Average Proficiency Index 8.5 Total Cost $200.00 Number of Persons Checked 50 Number of Rounds of the Beat 30 IMPACT Total Crime Reported to P o l i c e : - Frequency 25. - Average Degree of Seriousness 6.5 Total Complaints Made to Po l i c e : - Frequency 50 - Average Degree of Seriousness 1.5 As a result of the i r analysis of the performance accounts, the police concluded that by the end of the t h i r d quarter both goals and operating objectives had been achieved. Furthermore, marginal impact e f f i c i e n c y revealed that for every increase of 1.0 unit in the proficiency index, the frequency of crime dropped by 25 and the frequency of complaints dropped by 50 This i l l u s t r a t i o n shows how police would employ the proposed input, output and impact accounts to answer the f i v e central questions of program evaluation, and how the answers were interpreted to res u l t i n a r e - a l l o c a t i o n of resources within the Department. This i l l u s t r a t i o n i s not meant to imply that the indicators contained i n the accounts are indeed v a l i d . I t must be emphasized that they are merely put forth as educated suggestions, and yet require empirical v e r i f i c a t i o n and 105 testing. In f a c t , the one indicator which might be seriously questioned even at this stage i s the number of persons checked per s h i f t . However, i f one assumes that there i s an unlimited number of people on the street which should be checked, then i t becomes a more v a l i d measure of productivity rather than merely the s i z e of the street population. 5.7 Areas of Further Refinement and Research What i s actually being proposed i n t h i s analysis i s to i d e n t i f y the parameters and to determine the nature of the relationship between them i n the production functions and the s o c i a l welfare functions of police programs. We know i n t u i t i v e l y ' that there must be indicators of input, output and impact. We know that they are related i n general mathematical terms as follows: Output = f (Inputs), and Impacts = f (Output), or Impacts = f (Output) = f (Inputs). We have even implied whether these parameters are p o s i t i v e l y or inversely correlated. The next step i n the development of performance accounts i s to v e r i f y the indicators of input, output and impact, determine empirically the nature of the relationship among them, and thus construct the production and s o c i a l welfare functions of police programs. 106 5.8 Concluding Remarks Apart from the fact that most of the indicators proposed for the accounts were based upon educated speculation, several points have been made clear i n t h i s chapter: 1. indicators of input, output and impact can be conceived for police functions, 2. goals and operating objectives for police functions can, i n a meaningful and useful sense, be described i n terms of quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of impact and output, respectively, and 3. program evaluation i s a useful t o o l for a l l o c a t i v e decisions and requires that (1) and (2) above occur. CHAPTER 6 107 THE PUBLIC SAFETY PROGRAM AND ITS SUPPORTING FUNCTIONS This chapter deals with the second program of the Vancouver Po l i c e Department, the Public Safety Program. The previous chapter was concerned with the Crime Prevention Program and the following chapter w i l l be concerned with the Apprehension and Recovery Program. There are three purposes of this chapter. The f i r s t i s to i d e n t i f y indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function of the Public Safety Program, and to i d e n t i f y indicators of the desirable impacts of this function i n the context of that Program. The second i s to i l l u s t r a t e how these measures can be employed to answer the f i v e central questions of program evaluation, and the implications of the answers for resource a l l o c a t i o n within the Vancouver Police Department. And, l a s t l y , t h i s chapter w i l l attempt to pinpoint areas i n need of further refinement and research i f these concepts are to become f u l l y operational. The Public Safety Program of the Vancouver Police Department has f i v e goals: (1) to protect persons from i n j u r y , (2) to aid persons i n need of assistance, (3) to secure property against t h e f t , (4) to protect property from damage, and (5) to maintain public order. Four functions of the Department were seen as supporting the goals of this Program: (1) the c i t i z e n complaint function, (2) the crowd control function, (3) the escort duty function, and (4) the c i v i l disaster co-ordination function. 108 I f the reader wishes to refresh h i s understanding of these functions, he i s referred to Chapter 3, pages 57 and 58, where they have been described i n d e t a i l . In contrast to the Crime Prevention Program, the functions of the Public Safety Program cannot be looked upon as alternative strategies for addressing the same problem. Rather, each function of the Public Safety Program i s t a i l o r e d to meet the s p e c i a l requirements of a p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n . For example, police can choose which of the f i v e functions supporting the Crime Prevention Program w i l l be used to tackle a p a r t i c u l a r problem for which crime prevention may be a useful strategy. I f there was trouble i n the Dunbar area of the City with juvenile gangs, police are not r e s t r i c t e d by the nature of the problem i n choosing an appropriate strategy. In f a c t , police could choose one or a combination of crime prevention functions to cope with t h i s problem with perhaps the same re s u l t . In other words, the circumstances of the problem i n no way dictate to police what p a r t i c u l a r crime prevention functions must be employed to meet the problem. On the other hand, each of the four public safety functions are s p e c i f i c a l l y , t a i l o r e d to meet the circumstances of a pa r t i c u l a r public safety problem. The c i t i z e n complaint function i s s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to respond to the i n d i v i d u a l requests from private c i t i z e n s for police assistance. The crowd control function i s s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to meet the threat to public safety a r i s i n g out of the v o l a t i l e atmosphere of dense crowds of people. The escort duty function i s s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to accommodate the dangers to s p e c i f i c persons or property which may come about from exposure to criminal elements i n public areas or thoroughfares. And, the c i v i l disaster co-ordination function i s s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to preserve human l i f e and property i n the' 109 event of a major natural or technological disaster. Thus, each function i s t a i l o r e d to respond to the circumstances of a p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n where public safety i s being threatened. These functions should not, therefore, be looked upon as alternatives. The c i t i z e n complaint function i s one of the major functions of the Vancouver Police Department. In comparison, the functions of crowd control, escort duty and c i v i l disaster co-ordination are less s i g n i f i c a n t i n terms of the d a i l y operation of the Department because of their r e l a t i v e l y low frequency of occurrence. Furthermore, the planning, implementation and evaluation of crowd control, escort duty and c i v i l disaster co-ordination functions are generally unique to a p a r t i c u l a r incident. For these ,reasons, development of performance accounts for the c i t i z e n complaint function was seen as being a more relevant task than development of accounts for the other three functions of t h i s Program. Thus, th i s chapter i s devoted e n t i r e l y to the c i t i z e n complaint function at the expense of these other functions. 6.2 Proposed Entries for the Output Account In order to develop indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function of the Public Safety Program, the production function of this service was thoroughly examined. The telephone answering personnel, the radio dispatchers, the police units i n the f i e l d and the c i t i z e n s i n the community were a l l subjects of analysis. Both quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output were sought. The results of the analysis are discussed below. 110 6.2.1 Quantitative Indicators of Output The only quantitative indicator of output which was i d e n t i f i e d for the c i t i z e n complaint function i s c a l l - l o a d , that i s , the number of requests for police assistance. Call-load may be q u a l i f i e d i n terms of the area of the c i from which the c a l l s originated, and the reporting period over which the c a l l s were made. There are two reasons why a planner working for police should be aware . of c a l l - l o a d . F i r s t , police units should be allocated among working s h i f t s of the day, and among police d i s t r i c t s of the c i t y , according to c a l l - l o a d . Second, the difference between actual c a l l - l o a d and c a l l - l o a d capacity for a par t i c u l a r working s h i f t or police d i s t r i c t w i l l indicate whether the supply of police units i s excessive, adequate or i n s u f f i c i e n t i n r e l a t i o n to the demand for police service. Let us assume that i n the f i r s t instance, the average c a l l - l o a d for the 8:00 to 16:00 hours work s h i f t has been calculated over the l a s t s i x months to be as indicated below i n Table 6.1. TABLE 6.1 Average Call-load Per D i s t r i c t : Working Shift 8:00 to 16:00 Hours D i s t r i c t Average Call-load Percentage 1 80 27% 2 70 23% 3 55 18% A 95 32% Totals 300 100% I l l T h e g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e t o b e f o l l o w e d h e r e i s t h a t p o l i c e u n i t s s h o u l d b e a l l o c a t e d i n p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e c a l l - l o a d i n e a c h d i s t r i c t . T h u s , t h e 30 p o l i c e u n i t s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s s h i f t s h o u l d b e a l l o c a t e d a s f o l l o w s : 8 u n i t s t o D i s t r i c t 1 , 7 u n i t s t o D i s t r i c t 1 , 6 u n i t s t o D i s t r i c t 3 a n d 9 u n i t s t o D i s t r i c t 4 . Some c o n t r o v e r s y , d o e s e x i s t a s t o w h e t h e r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f p o l i c e u n i t s s h o u l d b e b a s e d u p o n t o t a l c a l l - l o a d o r p e a k c a l l - l o a d p e r s h i f t . B u t t h i s d e b a t e d o e s n o t i n v a l i d a t e t h e g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e u p o n w h i c h t h e a l l o c a t i v e d e c i s i o n f o r t h i s p o l i c e f u n c t i o n i s f o u n d e d . I t i s a l s o c r i t i c a l f o r t h e p l a n n e r w o r k i n g f o r p o l i c e t o b e a l e r t t o t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n a c t u a l c a l l - l o a d a n d c a l l - l o a d c a p a c i t y . T h e d i v e r g e n c e b e t w e e n a c t u a l c a l l - l o a d a n d c a l l - l o a d c a p a c i t y i n d i c a t e s t h e g a p b e t w e e n t h e demand f o r a n d t h e s u p p l y o f p o l i c e u n i t s i n t h e f i e l d . T h i s c a s e i s a n e x a m p l e o f t h e g e n e r a l d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n r e a l o u t p u t ( a c t u a l c a l l - l o a d ) a n d o u t p u t c a p a c i t y ( c a l l - l o a d c a p a c i t y ) w h i c h h a s a l r e a d y b e e n d i s c u s s e d i n some d e t a i l i n C a h p t e r 2, p a g e s 30 a n d 3 1 . T h e r e a l o u t p u t o f t h e c i t i z e n c o m p l a i n t f u n c t i o n i s a c t u a l c a l l - l o a d . I t i s r e l a t e d t o t h e demand f o r p o l i c e a s s i s t a n c e i n t h e c o m m u n i t y . C a l l - l o a d c a n , t o some d e g r e e , b e i n f l u e n c e d b y p o l i c e a c t i o n . I t c a n b e a f f e c t e d b y t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e C r i m e P r e v e n t i o n P r o g r a m , s i n c e demand f o r p o l i c e s e r v i c e i s u s u a l l y r e l a t e d t o t h e f r e q u e n c y a n d s e r i o u s n e s s o f c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y . A n d , i t c a n a l s o b e a f f e c t e d b y r e s p o n s e t i m e , t h a t i s , t h e s p e e d w i t h w h i c h p o l i c e r e s p o n d t o c i t i z e n r e q u e s t s f o r a s s i s t a n c e . 112 On the other hand, the output capacity of the c i t i z e n complaint function is c a l l - l o a d capacity. I t i s related to the supply of police units assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function during a p a r t i c u l a r work s h i f t or i n a pa r t i c u l a r police d i s t r i c t of the c i t y . C a l l - l o a d capacity, l i k e actual c a l l -load, can also be influenced by police action. The more e f f i c i e n t police become i n carrying out the a c t i v i t i e s of the c i t i z e n complaint function, the greater w i l l be c a l l - l o a d capacity. Actual c a l l - l o a d i s equal to the number of requests for police assistance. Call-load capacity i s , on the other hand, equal to the maximum number of such requests which can be accommodated by the supply of police units allocated to the c i t i z e n complaint function. Thus, actual c a l l - l o a d can be readily ascertained from police records. However, c a l l - l o a d capacity can only be determined by a r e l a t i v e l y complex series of calculations. I t was said i n a previous paragraph that the more e f f i c i e n t police become i n carrying out the a c t i v i t i e s which comprise the c i t i z e n complaint function, the greater w i l l be the c a l l - l o a d capacity for that function. This was meant to imply that the c a l l - l o a d capacity for a p a r t i c u l a r work s h i f t i s related not only to the number of police units assigned to this function, but also to the speed with which police carry out thei r duties. The length of time for police to service a c a l l i s cal l e d service time. Service time i s equal to t r a v e l time plus clearance time, where t r a v e l time i s the number of minutes between assignment of a police unit to the c a l l and a r r i v a l of the unit at the scene, and where clearance time i s equal to the number of minutes between a r r i v a l of the unit at the scene and completion of the investigation of the complaint. 113 Let us consider an example of how c a l l - l o a d capacity i s to be calculated.i During an eight-hour work s h i f t , 10 police units are assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function for a p a r t i c u l a r sector of the c i t y . Over the past s i x months, the average t r a v e l time per c a l l has been calculated to be 10 minutes, and the average clearance time per c a l l has been calculated to be 20 minutes. From th i s information the following calculations can be made: 1. average service time per c a l l i s equal to (10 minutes + 20 minutes = 30 minutes) 30 minutes, and 2. t o t a l manhours available during the eight-hour s h i f t i s equal to (8 hours x 10 men = 80 manhours) 80 manhours, therefore 3. t o t a l estimated c a l l - l o a d capacity i s equal to (4800 man-minutes / 30 minutes = 160 c a l l s ) 160 c a l l s per s h i f t . The accuracy of estimated c a l l - l o a d capacity w i l l depend upon the standard deviation from average service time per c a l l and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of c a l l s over the duration of the work s h i f t . The planner working for police should monitor c a l l - l o a d capacity i n r e l a t i o n to average c a l l - l o a d and peak c a l l - l o a d for each pol i c e d i s t r i c t i n the c i t y . Call-load capacity should be maintained somewhere between average c a l l - l o a d and peak c a l l - l o a d . Furthermore, the relationship between c a l l - l o a d capacity and average c a l l - l o a d and peak c a l l - l o a d should be kept about the same for each d i s t r i c t . 114 In conclusion, there are two quantitative indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function. They are actual c a l l - l o a d and c a l l - l o a d capacity. Actual c a l l - l o a d may be expressed as t o t a l , average or peak c a l l - l o a d . The relationship between c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour and average c a l l - l o a d per hour and peak c a l l - l o a d per hour are c r u c i a l to the success of the c i t i z e n complaint function and, hence, the performance of the Public Safety Program. The following section deals with q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function. 6.2.2 Qualitative Indicators of Output The previous section was concerned with the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and interpretation of actual c a l l - l o a d and c a l l - l o a d capacity as quantitative indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function. This section, on the other hand, i s concerned with three indicators of the quality of output of t h i s function. They are: (1) the speed of police response to c i t i z e n requests for assistance, (2)the appropriateness and adequacy of police coverage at the scene, and (3) the speed with which the police role i s carried out at the scene. The Speed of Police Response. The length of time between completion of the l a s t d i g i t of the police emergency number by the complainant and a r r i v a l of the f i r s t police unit at the scene i s called t o t a l response time. I t i s t h i s notion of response time which can be d i r e c t l y linked to the c i t i z e n ' s 115 perception of police performance. Total response time i s , however, composed of several d i s t i n c t time elements, each of which has spe c i a l implications for remedial action. These composite elements are, i n order of the sequence i n which they occur: 1. answering time, 2. comprehension time, 3. dispatch time, 4. stacking time, and 5. t r a v e l time. Thus, the following relationship exists between Total Response Time and i t s composite elements: Total Response Time = Answering Time + Comprehension Time + Dispatch Time + Stacking Time + Travel Time. Answering Time. The Length of time between completion of the l a s t d i g i t of the police emergency telephone number by the complainant^and the i n i t i a l verbal contact of the complainant with a member of the Po l i c e Emergency Telephone Center i s ca l l e d answering time. An increase i n answering time may imply that additional trunk l i n e s should be i n s t a l l e d for the police emergency number, or that additional personnel should be recruited for the Telephone Center i n order to handle in-coming c a l l s more promptly. 116 Comprehension Time. The length of time between receipt of the complaint by Emergency Telephone Center personnel, and n o t i f i c a t i o n of the Dispatcher i n the Radio Room of the address to which police units are to respond and the p r i o r i t y of the c a l l i s c a l l e d comprehension time. As defined here, comprehension time i s an indicator of the speed with which Emergency Telephone Center personnel are able to record two v i t a l pieces of information: (1) the address to which police units are to respond, and (2) the p r i o r i t y of the c a l l . Therefore speed i s not the only measure of -performance. Speed, alone, may give a biased picture of performance. To complement speed, the accuracy with which Emergency Telephone Center presonnel determine address and p r i o r i t y should also be considered. The order i n which t h i s information i s relayed to the dispatcher i s also important. I t i s c r i t i c a l for the dispatcher to know the address of the scene to which police have been requested to proceed, i n order to ascertain the a v a i l a b i l i t y of police units i n the general v i c i n i t y of the address. Since t h i s i s the most d i f f i c u l t task facing the dispatcher, the address of the scene should be given to him as soon as possible so that he i s able to develop his strategy of deployment. The p r i o r i t y of the c a l l i s the second most important piece of information needed by the dispatcher. Once he has determined the general a v a i l a b i l i t y of police units i n the v i c i n i t y of the scene, the p r i o r i t y of the c a l l w i l l indicate to him whether police units already assigned to previous c a l l s should be re-assigned to t h i s c a l l . Thus, the order i n which these two v i t a l pieces of information are relayed to the dispatcher i s also of some importance. 1 1 7 Of the two pieces of information, the address to which police are to proceed i s perhaps the more obvious. However, the p r i o r i t y of the c a l l i s also of c r i t i c a l importance i n determining the entire pace of response to the request for assistance. In fact, i t i s upon the a b i l i t y of Emergency Telephone Center personnel to accurately ascertain the true p r i o r i t y of a c a l l that the ultimate success of police action may depend. Thus, while comprehension time i s an indicator of the speed with which t h i s p a r t i c u l a r phase of the operation i s executed, the percentage of c a l l s for which the address of the scene i s accurately recorded, and the percentage of c a l l s for which the p r i o r i t y i s c o r r e c t l y determined should .be used as complementary indicators of the performance of this phase of the operation. Dispatch Time. The length of time between n o t i f i c a t i o n of the dispatcher of the c a l l by Emergency Telephone Center personnel and assignment of the c a l l to police units i n the f i e l d by the dispatcher i s c a l l e d dispatch time. Should a police unit be available immediately to be assigned the c a l l , t r a v e l time begins. Should a police unit not be available, stacking time commences. Dispatch time can be related to c a l l - l o a d and the a b i l i t y of the dispatcher. If the frequency of c a l l s were stable, but dispatch time was increasing, one might question the e f f i c i e n c y of the dispatcher. However, i f the frequency of c a l l s were to increase concurrently with an increase i n dispatch time, one would suspect that i t was the increased volume of c a l l s and not the a b i l i t y of the dispatcher which was at the root of the increase i n dispatch time. I f 118 dispatch time i s continuously higher than some predetermined standard, appropriate remedial action would be to assign additional dispatchers to the job, or to automate certain elements of the decision-making process inherent i n t h i s phase of the operation. Stacking Time. The length of time between the f i r s t attempt of the dispatcher to assign the c a l l to a police unit i n the f i e l d , and the ultimate assignment of an available unit to the c a l l i s cal l e d stacking time. Stacking time r e f l e c t s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of police units i n the f i e l d r e l a t i v e to the c a l l - l o a d . As defined here, stacking time i s an indicator of several related but d i s t i n c t conditions i n the f i e l d . For example, a r i s e i n stacking time above some predetermined standard may r e f l e c t one or more of the following conditions: (1) an increase i n t r a v e l time above the six-month f l o a t i n g average because of an i n e f f i c i e n t deployment of police units over the geographical area of the c i t y ; (2) an increase i n clearance time above the six-month f l o a t i n g average because of a r i s e i n the seriousness of crime or a decline i n police e f f i c i e n c y at the scene; or (3) a general deficiency i n the supply of police units i n t h e - f i e l d r e l a t i v e to the demand for them. Travel Time. The length of time between assignment of the c a l l to a police unit by the dispatcher, and a r r i v a l of the f i r s t unit at the scene i s c a l l e d t r a v e l time. Travel time can be related to the density as wel l as the pattern of police units over the surface area of the c i t y i n r e l a t i o n to the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of c a l l s . The number of police units assigned to a p a r t i c u l a r work s h i f t w i l l have an affect on a v a i l a b i l i t y which w i l l be reflected i n stacking time. This linkage has already been discussed. But the concept of density incorporates 119 not only the t o t a l number of police units a v a i l a b l e , but also t h e i r s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n over the surface area of the c i t y . To i l l u s t r a t e t h i s notion of density, l e t us assume that the c i t y i s divided into 100 c e l l s of equal area and that the p r o b a b i l i t y of police having to attend a scene i n any one of the c e l l s i s 0.01. If the present complement of 25 police units i s evenly d i s t r i b u t e d over the 100 geographic c e l l s i n the c i t y , there w i l l be one p o l i c e unit for every four c e l l s . Hence, the p r o b a b i l i t y that there i s a police unit i n any one c e l l i s (1/4 = 0.25) 0.25. Let us then assume that the present complement of 25 police units i s augmented to a t o t a l of 50 units. The p r o b a b i l i t y that there i s a police unit i n any one c e l l therefore r i s e s to (1/2 = 0.50) 0.50. Travel time w i l l obviously be shorter i f the police unit i s already i n or adjacent to the c e l l where the incident i s occurring. Thus, a 50 per cent increase i n the density of police units w i l l have the affect of reducing average t r a v e l time by approximately 50 per cent. In actual f a c t , of course, the p r o b a b i l i t y of police having to attend a c e l l varies from c e l l to c e l l . This i s the reasoning behind recommending that police units be allocated among work s h i f t s and areas of the c i t y i n proportion to the c a l l - l o a d i n each time-place c e l l . In concluding our discussion of t o t a l response time and the various time elements which comprise i t , emphasis should be given to the fact that response time i s a q u a l i t a t i v e indicator of output of the c i t i z e n complaint function. I t indicates how well police are executing t h i s p a r t i c u l a r function. In this l i g h t , response time has several p r a c t i c a l implications. F i r s t , response time has a s i g n i f i c a n t affect on public safety, for the more promptly police respond to requests for assistance, the less the seriousness of v i c t i m i z a t i o n w i l l be. Second, response time has a deterrent affect i n that knowledge of prompt response by police w i l l tend to discourage criminal a c t i v i t y . 120 And, f i n a l l y , the general public frequently associate t h e i r idea of police competence with response time. Hence, response time has implications for the image of police competence i n the eyes of the public. The Appropriateness and Adequacy of Pol i c e Coverage. One could conjure up many refined and sophisticated indicators of the appropriateness and adequacy of police response to a c i t i z e n ' s request for assistance. But one must temper his choice by two important considerations. F i r s t , the cost of r e t r i e v i n g the indicators must remain within reasonable l i m i t s . And, second, the indicators must have s i g n i f i c a n t implications for the quality of police service provided at the scene. Given these constraints, two indicators appear to be pertinent here. One, the type of resources, and two, the number of resources applied at the scene. By type i s meant either marked or unmarked police vehicles. And, by number i s meant the number of police vehicles, and hence manpower, applied at the scene. In most cases, police units assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function are one-man units. Thus, the quantity of manpower represented by each unit can be taken as constant. The Type of Police Vehicle Dispatched to the Scene. On the surface the d i s t i n c t i o n between marked and unmarked vehicles may not seem important, but i n certain circumstances an unmarked vehicle provides police with s i g -n i f i c a n t advantages. A recent example may help to i l l u s t r a t e t h i s point. A f u g i t i v e was holding the wife of a l o c a l bank vice-president hostage for $20,000 ransom at t h e i r home i n the c i t y . The police dispatcher, having been n o t i f i e d by an accountant at the bank of the s i t u a t i o n , attempted to assign an unmarked unit to place the residence under surviellance and to provide assistance should the right opportunity present i t s e l f . However, no unmarked police unit was available at the time, and since the c a l l demanded some 121 degree of urgency, a marked car was assigned to the scene. The fugative saw the marked car. Not only was he forewarned of imminent p o l i c e a c t i o n , but the s i t e of the marked p o l i c e car so distraught him that he almost murdered h i s hostage. Thus, use of the marked car put the l i f e of the hostage i n jeopardy, and a l e r t e d the fugative to the p o s s i b i l i t y of p o l i c e i n t e r v e n t i o n . The Number of P o l i c e Units Deployed to the Scene. The number of p o l i c e units assigned to a c a l l , i n contrast to the number of units which should, i d e a l l y , be deployed to the scene i s also an important i n d i c a t o r of the q u a l i t y of output of the c i t i z e n complaint function. Depending upon the seriousness of the c a l l , a reporting unit and one or more covering units are assigned to the c a l l . The discrepancy between the number of units which were assigned to the c a l l , and the number of units which should have been assigned, has cl e a r implications f o r the q u a l i t y of service being provided to the community. Once again, an example w i l l help to i l l u s t r a t e t h i s point. A bank robbery i s a serious crime not only because of the monetary loss to the bank, but also because of the psychological shock which accompanies such an episode and the p o t e n t i a l p h y s i c a l i n j u r y to persons i n and near the bank. From t h e i r past experience, p o l i c e know that an adequate response to a bank alarm i s a minimum of seven policemen. Any fewer units attending the scene, puts a constraint upon p o l i c e strategy at the bank. Thus, i f less than seven policemen are deployed to attend a bank alarm, i t c o n s t i t u t e s an inadequate p o l i c e response to the c a l l . I t i s p e r f e c t l y f e a s i b l e that such standards of p o l i c e response could also be developed f o r other types of c a l l s . Table 6.2 on the following page i l l u s t r a t e s how q u a l i t a t i v e i n d i c a t o r s could be constructed from t h i s information. 122 TABLE 6.2 Type of C a l l Silent Alarm Strongarming i n Progress Off i c e r i n Trouble Purse Snatching Bank Alarm Totals Development of a Qualitative Indicator of the Adequacy of Police Coverage by Type of C a l l  Minimum Number of Policemen Actual Number of Policemen Deployed Call s Receiving Inadequate Coverage as a Percentage of the Total Number of C a l l s : 2 2 2 5 3/5 x 100 = 60% Calls Receiving Inadequate Coverage 1 1 Total Number of C a l l s 1 1 The percentage of t o t a l c a l l s for which police response meets these minimum standards i s an important q u a l i t a t i v e indicator of output of the c i t i z e n complaint function. The examples used i n Table 6.2 are s i m p l i f i e d . In cases involving three or more policemen, one of the policemen i s a supervisor. And i n the other cases, a member of the dog squad should also be i n attendance. In conclusion, i t can be said that at least two q u a l i t a t i v e indicators (how well) of output of the c i t i z e n complaint function can be developed concerning the adequacy of resources applied at the scene. 123 The Speed with which the Problem i s Resolved at the Scene. Once they have arrived at the scene, police carry out two a c t i v i t i e s . F i r s t , there i s direct physical action which may be ca l l e d c r i s i s intervention. And, subsequently, there i s an investigation of the incident which i s necessary to obtain information upon which arrest and prosecution of the offender may be based and the recovery of stolen property may depend. The length of time between a r r i v a l of police at the scene, and the termination of their role when they radio the dispatcher "clear for service" i s called clearance time. It i s not known what portion of clearance time i s spent on investigation. However, i t i s known that clearance time as a whole w i l l depend upon the seriousness of the c a l l , and the adequacy of police resources deployed to the scene. Consequently, an increase i n average clearance time per c a l l may not imply a drop i n police e f f i c i e n c y , but perhaps a r i s e i n the seriousness of c a l l s or an increase i n the number of c a l l s to which police response i s inadequate. In conclusion to this section, a l i s t of indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function i s provided below: Quantitative Indicators 1. average and peak c a l l - l o a d 2. c a l l - l o a d capacity Qualitative Indicators 1. t o t a l response time - answering time - comprehension time - dispatch time 124 - stacking time - t r a v e l time 2. the appropriateness and adequacy of police coverage - the type of police vehicle dispatched - the number of police units deployed 3. clearance time The next section deals with a discussion of proposed entries for the impact account of the c i t i z e n complaint function. 6.3 Proposed Entries for the Impact Account The three police programs, Crime Prevention, Public Safety and Apprehension and Recovery, can be related to a respective timeframe, namely, before, during and after crime has occurred. As such, the Public Safety Program i s a form of c r i s i s intervention designed to protect persons from i n j u r y , to aid persons i n need of assistance, to secure property against t h e f t , to protect property from damage, and to maintain public peace and order. The c i t i z e n complaint function of the Public Safety Program i s based upon the assumption that p o l i c e assistance, intervention or mere presence w i l l have an ameliorating affect upon the impact of crime. The impact of crime can be measured i n terms of the indicators of seriousness which have already been referred to several times throughout the thesis. And, furthermore, apart from the objective or empirical measure of the impact of crime, there i s also the subjective impression of the complainant as to the performance of police i n the execution of t h e i r duties. Consequently, when examining the impact of the c i t i z e n complaint function, 125 there are two aspects to be considered. The f i r s t aspect involves an empirical measurement of the effect of police intervention upon the seriousness of crime occurring i n the c i t y . And, the second aspect i s concerned with obtaining feedback from the public about thei r evaluation of police performance. 6.3.1 The Effect of the C i t i z e n Complaint Function Upon the Seriousness of Crime . Without a doubt the existence of the c i t i z e n complaint function acts as a general deterrent against crime occurring i n the c i t y . The widespread knowledge that police w i l l promptly respond to requests for assistance must hav e a n o v e r a l l effect upon the frequency and perhaps the seriousness of crime. But this aspect of the c i t i z e n complaint function may be taken as given for purposes of our analysis. The i n i t i a l task facing the planner working for police i s to develop some technique for ascertaining the effect of crime upon i t s victims. Once such a method has been devised, the planner w i l l have a s t a t i s t i c a l t o o l with which he can t e l l police management the extent to which they are s a t i s f y i n g the goals of this function. Consistent with the s o c i a l indicator philosophy of comprehensiveness, the impact of crime upon i t s victims can be measured along four separate dimensions: the physical, the economic, the psychological and the s o c i a l . Let us take each of them and examine them c a r e f u l l y . The f i r s t dimension i s the physical. Physical injury as a result of criminal v i c t i m i z a t i o n can readily be ascertained. A scale taking into 126 consideration the degree of suffering and the extent to which the victim's l i f e was put i n danger, can be developed for t h i s dimension. A tentative l i s t of categories which could form the basis for this scale are presented i n Table 6 . 3 . They are l i s t e d i n order of t h e i r degree of seriousness as perceived by the author. Weights have also been a r b i t r a r i l y assigned to each category, inversely related to t h e i r ordinal rank. TABLE 6 . 3 Assessment of Physical Injury Resulting from Crime  Extent of Injury Minor Injury or Physical Intimidation Treated but Discharged from Hospital Hospitalized for One or More Days Permanently Disabled K i l l e d Assigned Weight 1 2 3 4 5 The second dimension i s the economic. Property loss as a result of theft or damage can easily be determined by the v i c t i m , the policeman attending the scene, or an insurance assessor. A scale based upon the t o t a l d o l l a r value of property stolen or damaged can be developed for this dimension. A tentative l i s t of categories which could form the basis for t h i s scale i s presented i n Table 6 . 4 . The weights assigned to each entry are merely meant to r e f l e c t the assumption that the economic impact of crime upon i t s victims i s correlated with the t o t a l d o l l a r value of property stolen, damaged or destroyed during the course of crime. 127 TABLE 6.4 Assessment of Property Loss Resulting from Crime Dollar Value Under $50 $50 - 150 $151 - 250 $251 - 500 $501 - 1,000 Assigned Weight 1 2 3 4 5 Dollar Value Assigned Weight $1,001 - 5,0.00 6 $5,001 - 10,000 7 $10,001 - 25,000 8 $25,001 - 100,000 9 $100,001 or more 10 The t h i r d dimension i s the psychological. Whereas the physical and economic dimensions can be ascertained by an objective assessment of physical injury and property loss, the psychological dimension must be evaluated subjectively on the basis of the victim's emotional reaction to crime. While i t i s c l e a r l y understood that the psychological effect of crime upon the vi c t i m i s closely related to actual or potential physical injury and property loss , i t would appear that an ad d i t i o n a l , purely psychological element i s present according to the nature of the crime i t s e l f . And, furthermore, this purely psychological element does not appear to be reflected i n the more objective assessment of physical injury and property loss. An obvious example of such a case i s rape. The physical injury and property loss r e s u l t i n g from t h i s type of crime i s frequently n e g l i g i b l e , but one cannot question the fact that this crime has an extremely intense and often l a s t i n g traumatic effect upon the vic t i m . A selected l i s t of crimes i s presented on the following page i n Table 6.5. The weights assigned to them merely r e f l e c t t h e i r o r d i n a l rank i n terms of the author's perception of t h e i r r e l a t i v e psychological impact upon the vic t i m . 128 TABLE 6.5 Assessment of Psychological Shock Resulting from Crime Selected L i s t of Crimes Assigned Weight Theft of Automobile 1 Residential Breaking and Entering 2 Common Assault 3 Robbery at Gunpoint 4 Rape 5 Homicide 6 The f i n a l dimension of crime i s the s o c i a l dimension. This aspect of crime i s more d i f f i c u l t to categorize than the other three, and even more d i f f i c u l t to evaluate. But there i s no doubt that a s o c i a l dimension of crime e x i s t s . Every time a crime occurs, a criminal i s made or a habit of c r i m i n a l i t y i s further reinforced. The family breadwinner, permanently disabled as a result of physical violence during the course of a crime, i s no longer able to maintain the former s o c i a l and economic status of his family. And, a father k i l l e d during a crime makes a wife a widow and a family fatherless. While i t i s not yet clear how these considerations might be categorized and weighted, one should be aware of t h e i r existence. Any measure of crime which f a i l s to incorporate the s o c i a l dimension of crime w i l l be incomplete. The major problem facing criminologists today i s not i d e n t i f y i n g the dimensions of crime, or developing appropriate categories for each dimension, or even assigning weights to the categories, but rather how to incorporate a l l dimensions of crime into a s i n g l e , summary index of seriousness. The only major contribution i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n i s that of S e l l i n and Wolfgang(1964). They isolated the elements of physical injury and property loss which result from crime. And, had each element rated on a magnitude scale of seriousness by 129 policemen, university students and court judges. The res u l t s from these surveys produced the weights attached to the elements of crime which are presented below i n Table 6.6. TABLE 6.6 Elements of Criminal Events Weighted on a Magnitude Scale of Seriousness by Policemen, University Students and Court Judges I. Number of victims of bodily harm a) receiving minor i n j u r i e s 1 b) treated and discharged 4 c) hospitalized 7 d) k i l l e d 26 I I . Number of victims of f o r c i b l e sexual intercourse 10 a) number of such victims intimidated by a weapon 2 I I I . Intimidation(except I I above) a) physical or verbal only 2 b) by weapon 4 IV. Number of premises f o r c i b l y entered 1 V. Number of motor vehicles stolen 2 VI. Value of property stolen, damaged or destroyed(in dollars) a) under 10 1 b) 10-250 2 c) 251-2,000 3 d) 2,001-9,000 4 e) 9,001-30,000 5 f) 30,001-80,000 6 g) over 80,000 7 Source: S e l l i n and Wolfgang, 1964 130 I t i s important to understand the manner i n which these weights were determined. The two most common techniques for constructing a psychological scale r e P r e s e n t : i n g human psyche response to environmental s t i m u l i are the category and magnitude scaling techniques. The category scale i s constructed by asking the respondant to select a number running from 1 to 11 which most accurately describes i n his mind the psychological weight of each criminal element. In contrast, the magnitude scale i s constructed by asking the respondant to assign a number to each criminal element which i s some multiple of a s p e c i f i c element which has been pre-assigned a standard weight. For example, i f theft of auto had been pre-assigned the weight of 1, and the respondant f e l t that the crime of robbery was ten times more traumatic than , theft of auto, he would assign the weight (1 x 10 = 10) 10 to robbery. S e l l i n and Wolfgang (1964) favored the use of the magnitude scale for several important reasons: "... the r e l a t i o n between the magnitude and category scales shown i n this study precisely duplicates the form of r e l a t i o n that has emerged i n a variety of psychophysical studies where the physical scale was w e l l known. In the area of psychophysics, a strong case has been made for the use of magnitude scales as appropriate characterizations of the mental effect of the stimulus ... the magnitude estimation scale values are a product of the rater rather than the experimenter, and as such have an inherent v a l i d i t y that cannot be claimed for the imposition of a fixed range of category values by the experimenter ... Another reason for choosing the magnitude scale i s the inherently greater nuance that can be exhibited by the rater i n his selection of responses." Their reasoning points to the use of the magnitude scale as the more v a l i d and accurate technique for measuring the psychological impact of criminal v i c t i m i z a t i o n . I t was such a scale that was used to develop the weights presented i n Table 6.6. 131 By 1968, the weighting scale for crime which had been developed by S e l l i n and Wolfgang for the United States had also been constructed for several other countries, such as Canada (Akman and Normandeau, 1968a), England (Akman and Normandeau, 1968b), and Belgian Congo (de Boeck and Houchon, 1968), Taiwan (Hsu, 1968), Indonesia (Normandeau and Saldanoer, 1968), B r a z i l (Reiss and Normandeau, 1968) and Mexico ( B e l l and Normandeau, 1968). In addition, Wolfgang (1968) has suggested to the Council of Europe that a standard weighted crime index for a l l European countries should soon be established. The results of surveys i n eight countries i s presented i n Table 6.7 on the following page. I t reveals a noticeable degree of consistency among countries with a common value system, ethnic background, and r e l i g i o u s and h i s t o r i c a l roots. For example, the set of weights for Canada, the United States and England are very s i m i l a r . Also, the set of weights for Taiwan and Indonesia, and the weights for B r a z i l and Mexico, are s i m i l a r as w e l l . ^ n conclusion, several important observations and comments can be made about ex i s t i n g e f f o r t s to develop a weighted crime index. F i r s t , the scheme devised by S e l l i n and Wolfgang (1964) does include both physical injury and property lo s s , as we l l as certain psychological considerations which arise i n such crimes as rape and r e s i d e n t i a l break and entering. Second, because the weights derived for each element are a l l related to a standard weight pre-assigned to a s p e c i f i c element on the score sheet, the weights for each element are comparable and thus additive. This means that a sing l e , summary index of crime i s feasible for a p a r t i c u l a r reporting period or for a s p e c i f i c geographic area of the c i t y . And, t h i r d , the movement to develop a 132 TABLE 6.7 Comparative Weights for Criminal Events from Eight Different Countries  United States Canada England Belgian Congo China (Taiwan) Indonesia B r a z i l Mexico Theft of $1 (U.S.) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Theft of $5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Theft of $20 2 1 1 1 1 1 . 1 1 Theft of $50 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 Theft of $1,000 3 3 2 7 2 2 3 3 Theft of $5,000 4 5 4 23 2 2 4 5 Burgalry $5 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 Aggravated theft $5 (unarmed) 3 3 4 1 2 3 3 4 Aggravated theft $5 (armed) 5 4 6 4 4 4 4 5 Assault (causing death) 26 28 51 117 8 9 15 17 Assault (necessitating hospital admission) 7 7 9 5 3 4 6 7 Assault (necessitating medical treatment, followed by discharge) 4 5 7 2 2 2 4 4 Assault (minor) 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 Rape 11 12 15 7 5 6 8 9 Theft of car (vehicle recovered undamaged) 2 2 . 1 1 1 1 1 1 Breaking and entering 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Intimidation (involving verbal threats) 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 Intimidation (involving weapons) 4 3 5 3 3 3 8 4 "Aggravated theft" = Theft involving violence "Burglary 5 do l l a r s " = Breaking and entering and stealing $5 "Assault" = Involving physical force Source: Normandeau, 1969, p. 16 133 weighted crime index which has been spearheaded by S e l l i n and Wolfgang i s not an isolated and contentious e f f o r t . I t i s gaining acceptance i n many countries of the world where the need for a more q u a l i t a t i v e assessment of crime has been recognized as long overdue. Thus, for the planner working for poli c e , there already exists a t o o l by which a weighted index of crime occurring i n the c i t y can be constructed. Granted, i t may not l i v e up to everybody's standards, however, neither does the automobile and we have been using i t for decades without too much complaint. Once the matter of developing a measure of the impact of crime upon i t s vi-ctimes has been overcome, the planner working for police must address himself to formulating a series of questions which w i l l , i f answered, indicate to police management the degree to which they are s a t i s f y i n g t h e i r goals. There appear to be three pertinent questions which the planner can put to police regarding the performance of the c i t i z e n complaint function: 1. does police intervention during the course of a crime i n progress reduce or eliminate the impact of the crime upon i t s victims? 2. i s the percentage of crimes i n which po l i c e are able to intervene during progress of the crime increasing or decreasing? 3. i n those cases where police are able to intervene during progress of the crime, are police increasing th e i r a b i l i t y to reduce or eliminate the impact of the crime upon the victim? The f i r s t question demands that for each type of crime, a sample of 100 during which police intervene and a sample of 100 during which police are unable to intervene, be taken. The average weighted crime index for each set 134 of 100 cases can then be calculated. Then, the difference between these two averages can be determined, a f t e r which s t a t i s t i c a l analysis of variance w i l l indicate whether the difference i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . This difference i s referred to as the Public Safety Margin. Table 6.8 below presents data from a hypothetical example. TABLE 6.8 Calculation of the Public Safety Margin for Robbery Average Weighted Type of Crime Police Intervention Number of Cases Crime Index Robbery Yes 100 10.0 Robbery No 100 15.0 Public Safety Margin +5.0 In the hypothetical example, police intervention during robberies i n progress does have the effect of reducing the impact of this crime upon victims. However, i t should be emphasized that t h i s may not be the case. The presence of police during a robbery i n progress could cause the impact of crime upon victims to be more, rather than l e s s , serious, p a r t i c u l a r l y i f the suspect i s thrown into panic at the sight of p o l i c e . The second question can be answered quite simply by comparing the number of cases of a p a r t i c u l a r type of crime, say robbery, during which police are able to intervene, with the t o t a l number of cases of that crime which are occurring. The former as a percentage of the l a t t e r w i l l indicate whether or not police are improving t h e i r a b i l i t y to intervene before the suspect has f l e d the scene. 135 And, the t h i r d question involves a comparison of the average weighted crime index of cases during which police were able to intervene among progressive time periods. Such a comparison w i l l indicate whether or not police are increasing th e i r effectiveness at c r i s i s intervention. Thus, so far three entries have been proposed for the impact account of the c i t i z e n complaint function. They are: 1. the public safety margin 2. the percentage of t o t a l cases occurring during which police are able to intervene and 3. the average weighted crime index for those cases during which police are able to intervene. 6.3.2 The Public Sa t i s f a c t i o n With Police Service The previous section dealt with the problem of developing a r e l a t i v e l y objective measure of the impact of the c i t i z e n complaint function. This section deals with a more subjective indicator of the effectiveness of the c i t i z e n complaint function. I t focuses upon the public s a t i s f a c t i o n a r i s i n g out of the execution of the c i t i z e n complaint function as perceived by the vic t i m of crime or the complainants. One of the d i f f i c u l t i e s i n obtaining t h i s kind of feedback from the public i s that d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n i s often more vocally expressed than s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service. As a r e s u l t , u n s o l i c i t e d public comment regarding the comp-etence of police i s usually extremely biased against po l i c e . There i s a need, 136 therefore, to develop a more neutral media through which a more accurate i n d i c a t o r °f t n e public's view of police performance can be obtained. A telephone follow-up survey of those persons who have had recent contact with police as either victims or complainants could be conducted regularly. Such a survey vehicle would provide a more balanced impression of public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service. Furthermore, i t would provide an altern a t i v e measurement of performance to the more empirical measures which have been proposed i n the previous section. This p a r t i c u l a r entry of the impact account of the c i t i z e n complaint function can be operationalized i n terms of the degree of public s a t i s f a c t i o n , with police service based upon a ten-point scale. Table. 6.9 below presents the type of scheme which could be developed to generate a reading for such a scale. TABLE 6.9 Scale of Public S a t i s f a c t i o n from Po l i c e Service  During your recent contact with police, how would you rate t h e i r performance: Score 1. Poor ( ) 1 2. F a i r ( ) 2 3. Satisfactory (X) 3 4 . Good ( ) 4 5. Excellent ( ) 5 137 If a random survey of one hundred c a l l s were taken, the maximum possible score would be (100 x 5) 500 points. Assuming that the actual score was found to be 300, the score for that p a r t i c u l a r reading would be (300/500 x 10 " 6t0) 6,0 points. This index of the degree of public s a t i s f a c t i o n with p o l i c e service can be calculated at regular i n t e r v a l s to provide management with some indi c a t i o n of the public's perception of police competence. To avoid any c r i t i c i s m that the survey i s biased i n favour of p o l i c e , i t should be carried out by an Independent organization. In summary, three indicators of the impact of the Public Safety Program have been i d e n t i f i e d : 1. the degree to which police intervention during crimes i n progress reduce the seriousness of crime, referred to i n the thesis as the Public Safety Margin; 2. the percentage of t o t a l crime occurring i n the c i t y where police are able to intervene while the crime i s s t i l l i n progress; and 3. the degree of public s a t i s f a c t i o n a r i s i n g from the execution of this police program. The following section poses a hypothetical set of performance accounts i n order to i l l u s t r a t e how indicators of input, output and impact f a c i l i t a t e program evaluation and ultimately lead to a r e - a l l o c a t i o n of resources. 138 6.4 Use and Interpretation of the Input, Output and Impact Accounts for the Public Safety Program -. •- -In Section 5.6 of the previous chapter, i t was suggested that there are generally s i x i n t e g r a l steps involved i n the process of program evaluation (see page 99). In summary form, these s i x steps are: 1. conceptualization of i n d i c a t o r s , 2. expressing goals and operating objectives i n terms of these in d i c a t o r s , 3. c o l l e c t i n g the indicators and placing them i n the accounts, 4. answering the f i v e central questions of program evaluation, 5. interpreting the r e s u l t s , and 6. confirming present a l l o c a t i o n or r e - a l l o c a t i n g resources. Up to t h i s point, only step one has been completed. The indicators of input, output and impact for the c i t i z e n complaint function of the Public Safety Program have been conceptualized. But the remaining f i v e steps are s t i l l to be undertaken. In order to i l l u s t r a t e the p r a c t i c a l application of program evaluation for the Public Safety Program, l e t us once again take a hypothetical but r e a l i s t i c example. The City of Vancouver i s , for purpose of delivering police services, divided into four d i s t r i c t s with an Inspector i n charge of each d i s t r i c t . A new Inspector has recently been appointed to D i s t r i c t 1 which encompasses the West End and central business area of the C i t y . Upon being appointed o f f i c e r in charge of the d i s t r i c t , one of his f i r s t moves i s to set goals and operating 139 objectives for the c i t i z e n complaint function i n his d i s t r i c t . He bases these goals and objectives upon the standards of police performance he has come to expect from his experience i n other d i s t r i c t s of the C i t y . Furthermore, he attempts to express these goals and objectives i n terms of the indicators of impact and output, respectively, which he has obtained from the police Planning and Research Unit. They are as follows: Goals - police units assigned to "in-progress" c a l l s should a r r i v e , i n at least 50 per cent of a l l cases, before the offender has f l e d the scene - the public safety margin should be at least 2.5 units of seriousness - public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service should be at least 7.5 units of s a t i s f a c t i o n Operating Objectives - c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour should be equal to at least 75 per cent of peak c a l l - l o a d per hour - t r a v e l time should not exceed 5 minutes per c a l l - clearance time should not exceed 20 minutes per c a l l - adequate police coverage should be provided for at least 75 per cent of t o t a l c a l l - l o a d Before proceeding with t h i s i l l u s t r a t i o n , i t i s necessary to state the four simplifying assumptions made i n developing the accounts. F i r s t , a l l c a l l s are considered to be "in-progress" c a l l s . Second, each c a l l r e s u l t s i n one criminal charge being l a i d . Third, a l l c a l l s are of equal p r i o r i t y . In r e a l i t y , there are three p r i o r i t i e s of c a l l s , p r i o r i t y 1, 2 and 3, i n order of decreasing importance. This assumption therefore eliminates the complex problem of dealing with c a l l s of different p r i o r i t y . And, l a s t l y , adequate 140 police coverage i s considered to be one police unit for every c a l l . In a r e a l l i f e s i t u a t i o n , adequate police coverage could range from one to four or possibly f i v e u n i t s , depending upon the circumstances of the c a l l . The performance accounts for the c i t i z e n complaint function of the Public Safety Program i n D i s t r i c t 1 for the f i r s t quarter of 1974 are presented i n Table 6.10 on the following page. They suggest to the Inspector that i n terms of the goals and operating objectives which he has set for his d i s t r i c t , serious action w i l l have to be taken i n order to a t t a i n the standards of performance which these goals and objectives imply. The Input Account has two entries, manpower and vehicles. Manpower consists of 5 constables with an average proficiency rating of 7.0 units and an average salary(not including benefits) of $50.00 per s h i f t . Each constable i s assigned to a marked police vehicle with an estimated charge-out rate of $5.00 per s h i f t . Thus the t o t a l cost of inputs i s ($250 + $25.00 = $275) $275 per s h i f t . The Output Account has four sets of entries. The f i r s t set consists of peak c a l l - l o a d per hour, average c a l l - l o a d per hour, and c a l l - l o a d capacity  per hour. Peak c a l l - l o a d per hour i s the maximum number of c a l l s for service occurring over any continuous 60 minute period during a working s h i f t . Average c a l l - l o a d per hour i s the t o t a l number of c a l l s occurring over a TABLE 6.10 Hypothetical Indicators of Input, Output and Impact for the Public Safety Program, Citizen Complaint Function: Shift Averages, D i s t r i c t 1, January 1 to March 31, 1974 INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT Manpower: Constables 5 Average Proficiency Index 7.0 units Cost $250.00 Peak Call-load/Hour 16 c a l l s Average Call-load/Hour 7.5 c a l l s Call-load Capacity/Hour 7.5 c a l l s Total Crime Reported to Police: - Frequency 60 charges - Average Degree of Seriousness 9.5 units Vehicles: Marked Cars 5 Cost $25.00 Total Call-load 60 c a l l s Total Call-load Capacity 60 c a l l s Percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has fled the scene 30 per cent Total Cost $275.00 Service Time 40 minutes Travel Time 10 minutes Clearance Time 30 minutes » Average Seriousness of Reported Crime where police arrive before the offender has fle d the scene 8.0 units Percentage of Total Call-load receiving adequate police coverage 100 per cent Average Seriousness of Reported Crime where police arrive after the offender has fle d the scene 9.5 units Public Safety Margin = (9.5 - 8.0) N =1.5 units Public Satisfaction with Police Service 6.0 units 142 working s h i f t divided by eight, the nuraber of hours i n a s h i f t . And, c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour i s calculated by dividing the number of minutes i n an hour by average service time per c a l l , then multiplying the quotient by the t o t a l number of police units available during the s h i f t . Service time i s equal to t r a v e l time plus clearance time. The fact that c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour i s equal to average c a l l - l o a d per hour indicates that there are just enough police units i n the f i e l d to accommodate a l l requests during each hour. The difference between c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour and peak c a l l - l o a d per hour i s a measure of the excess load placed upon police units during that hour of the s h i f t when the maximum number of requests were received. The second set consists of t o t a l c a l l - l o a d and t o t a l c a l l - l o a d capacity per s h i f t . The fact that t o t a l c a l l - l o a d capacity per s h i f t and t o t a l c a l l - l o a d per s h i f t are equal indicates that there are just s u f f i c i e n t police units to accommodate a l l requests during each s h i f t . In other words, there w i l l be no carry over from one s h i f t to the next. The t h i r d set of entries consists of service time, t r a v e l time and and clearance time. Service time i s as i t s name implies the average length of time i t takes a police unit to service a c a l l . In other words, service time i s the average length of time between deployment of a police unit to the scene and completion of his assignment there. Service time i s therefore equal to t r a v e l time plus clearance time. I t i s the primary factor i n determining c a l l - l o a d capacity. 143 The fourth and f i n a l entry i n the Output Account i s the percentage of  t o t a l c a l l - l o a d receiving adequate police coverage. This entry i s designed to r e f l e c t the divergence between the actual number of police units assigned to a c a l l and the optimum number of units which should, according to standards of performance set by p o l i c e , be assigned to that c a l l . For example, a p r i o r i t y 1 c a l l such as bank robbery i n progress may require four police units at the scene, but somehow only two are available to attend. In the i l l u s t r a t e d accounts, the simplifying assumption i s made that adequate coverage for every c a l l i s one police unit. Thus, the percentage of c a l l s receiving adequate police coverage i s equal to c a l l - l o a d capacity divided by average c a l l - l o a d time 100, or (60/60 x 100 = 100) 100 per cent. The Impact Account has four entries.. The f i r s t i s t o t a l crime reported  to po l i c e. This i s considered at two l e v e l s : frequency and degree of seriousness." Frequency i s equal to the t o t a l number of criminal charges l a i d during each working s h i f t . This usually r e f l e c t s the fact that every c a l l does not necessarily result i n a criminal charge being l a i d . Degree of seriousness i s the average S e l l i n and Wolfgang index for the t o t a l number of crimes occurring during each working s h i f t . (The methodology for developing, t h i s index i s described i n Section 6.3.1, pages 124 to 133.) The second entry i n the Impact Account i s the percentage of "in-progress"  c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has f l e d the scene. The idea here i s that the p r o b a b i l i t y of police being able to reduce the effect of the crime upon i t s victims i s greatly increased, i f police are able to a r r i v e at the scene while the crime i s s t i l l i n progress. 144 The t h i r d set of entries are a l l related. I t consists of the average  seriousness of reported crime where police a r r i v e before the offender has f l e d  the scene, the average seriousness of reported crime where police a r r i v e after  the offender has f l e d the scene, and the public safety margin. The public safety margin i s defined as being equal to the numerical difference between the other two entries. Development of the public safety margin was the subject of considerable discussion i n t h i s chapter, Section 6.3.1, pages 133 to 135. The fourth entry of the Impact Account i s the index of public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service. This index i s developed from a random sampling of c i t i z e n s who have, during the current reporting period, requested police assistance. This concept has been explained i n d e t a i l i n t h i s chapter, Section 6.3.2, pages 135 to 137. i In his detailed assessment of the performance accounts for the f i r s t quarter of the year(see Table 6.10, page 141), the police Inspector i n charge of D i s t r i c t 1 made the following conclusions. Operating performance generally f e l l short of objectives. Call-load capacity per hour was only 47 per cent 145 of peak c a l l - l o a d per hour, which i s 28 points below the target of 75 per cent of peak c a l l - l o a d per hour. Travel time was 5 minutes i n excess of the target of 5 minutes per c a l l . Clearance time was 10 minutes i n excess of the target of 20 minutes per c a l l . The percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s for which police arrived before the suspect l e f t the scene was 20 per cent short of the target of 50 per cent of such c a l l s . However, adequate police coverage was provided i n 100 per cent of actual c a l l - l o a d . In addition, goals also generally f e l l short of t h e i r mark. The Public Safety Margin was 1.0 unit short of the target of 2.5 units. And, the Public S a t i s f a c t i o n with police service was 1.5 units below the target of 7.5 units. As a result of this assessment, the Inspector i n charge of D i s t r i c t 1 decides that he must f i r s t attempt to increase c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour without actually increasing the number of units i n the f i e l d . Since c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour i s equal to 60 minutes divided by average service time, a reduction i n service time would have the desired r e s u l t . The two most obvious means of reducing service time are by effecting a reduction i n t r a v e l time and clearance time. A reduction i n t r a v e l time can be brought about by assigning units to g r a v i t a t i o n a l points which center upon the geographical clustering of c a l l s . This i s because, mathematically, the shortest average distance between two or more points on a plane and any single reference point, i s the geometric center of the points. 146 A reduction i n clearance time may be effected by upgrading the proficiency of constables assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function. After having made these two changes immediately after the f i r s t quarter performance report, the Inspector reviewed the report for the second quarter i n order to ascertain whether any s i g n i f i c a n t changes had occurred. The performance accounts for the second quarter are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table 6.11 on the following page. The Input Account for the second quarter reveals no changes except for the 1.0 unit increase i n the proficiency index of the constables assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function during this period. The Output Account for the second quarter, however, reveals some s i g n i f i c a n t changes. Call-load capacity per hour rose 1.6 c a l l s , from 7.5 c a l l s to 9.1 c a l l s per hour. Service time per c a l l f e l l 7 minutes, from 40 minutes to 33 minutes per c a l l . This resulted from a 2 minute reduction i n tra v e l time, and a 5 minute reduction i n clearance time. The percentage °f t o t a l c a l l - l o a d receiving adequate police coverage remains the same as i n the previous reporting period. TABLE 6.11 Hypothetical Indicators of Input, Output and Impact for the Public Safety Program, Citizen Complaint Function: Shift Averages, D i s t r i c t 1, A p r i l 1 to June 30, 1974  INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT Manpower: Constables 5 Average Proficiency Index 8.0 Cost $250.00 Vehicles: Marked Cars 5 Cost $25.00 Total Cost $275.00 Peak Call-load/Hour 16 ca l l s Average Call-load/Hour 7.5 c a l l s Call-load Capacity/Hour 9.0 c a l l s Total ca l l - l o a d 60 ca l l s Total Call-load Capacity 73 c a l l s Service Time 33 minutes Travel Time 8 minutes Clearance Time 25 minutes Percentage of Total Call-load receiving acequate police coverage 100 per cent Total Crime Reported to Police: - Frequency 60 charges - Average Degree of Seriousness 8.5 units Percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has fled the scene 40 per cent Average Seriousness of Reported Crime where police arrive before the offender has f l e d the scene 7.5 units Average Seriousness of Reported Crime where police arrive after the offender has fle d the scene 9.5 units Public Safety Margin = (9.5 - 7.5) =2.0 units Public Satisfaction with Police Service 7.0 units 148 The Impact Account has also evidenced some s i g n i f i c a n t changes. While the frequency of crime has not changed, the average seriousness of crime has f a l l e n from 9.0 units to 8.5 units. I t i s assumed that this occurred as a resu l t of the increased percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s for which police arrived before the offender f l e d the scene, and the reduction i n the seriousness of crime where police arrived before the offender f l e d the scene. The former i s assumed to have increased from 30 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter to 40 per cent i n the second quarter because of a decline i n t r a v e l time. The l a t t e r i s assumed to have f a l l e n from 8.0 units i n the f i r s t quarter, to 7.5 units i n the second quarter because of the improved techniques of intervention and better judgement of constables with a higher proficiency index. Furthermore, the public safety margin rose from 1.5 units i n the f i r s t quarter to 2.0 units i n the second quarter. And, f i n a l l y , public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service rose from 6.0 units to 7.0 units. The Inspector i n charge of D i s t r i c t 1 next related the entries i n the performance accounts for the second quarter to the goals and operating objectives which he had previously set for his d i s t r i c t . The percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has f l e d the scene i s 40 per cent, up from 30 per cent in the f i r s t quarter, but s t i l l 10 per cent of the goal of 50 per cent. The public safety margin i s 2.0 units, up 0.5 units from the f i r s t quarter, but s t i l l 0.5 units from the goal of 2.5 units. And, public s a t i s f a c t i o n with p o l i c e service i s 7.0 units, up from 6.0 units i n the f i r s t quarter, but s t i l l 0.5 units short of the goal of 7.5 units. 149 Call-load capacity per hour i s 56.81 per cent of actual peak c a l l - l o a d per hour, up from 46.88 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter, but s t i l l 18.19 points short of the operating objective of 75.00 per cent. Travel time i s 8 minutes, down from 10 minutes i n the f i r s t quarter, but s t i l l short of the operating objective of 5 minutes per c a l l by 3 minutes. Clearance time i s 27 minutes, down from 30 minutes i n the f i r s t quarter, but s t i l l 7 minutes i n excess of the operating objective of 20 minutes per c a l l . Output e f f i c i e n c y has risen from $4.58 to $3.77 per c a l l . This has been effected through the increased capacity i n the c i t i z e n complaint function believed to have been brought about by the increased proficiency of the constables assigned to that function. The marginal effectiveness of the c i t i z e n complaint function i s such that a reduction i n tr a v e l time of 1 minute results i n an increase of 5 per cent i n the number of "in-progress" c a l l s for which police arrive before the suspect leaves the scene. Moreover, a further measure of marginal effectiveness indicates that a r i s e i n proficiency of 1.0 unit brings about a drop of 0.5 units i n the average seriousness of reported crime for which police arrived before the suspect(s) l e f t the scene. In addition, a 1 minute decline i n tr a v e l time results i n a 0.5 unit r i s e i n public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service. I t i s inte r e s t i n g to note that this would indicate that public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service, the subjective measure, i s more sensitive to changes i n t r a v e l time, than i s the public safety margin, the more objective measure. 150 After assessing the performance accounts for the second quarter of the year, the Inspector i n charge of D i s t r i c t 1 decides that he has pushed his men as hard as he can and that i n order to r e a l i z e his goals and operating objectives for the Public Safety Program he must increase the resources allocated to the c i t i z e n complaint function. Not wishing to overcommit himself to a larger than necessary increase, he augments the resources of th i s function by one police unit. Table 6.12 on the following page, i l l u s t r a t e s the performance accounts for the t h i r d quarter of the year which r e f l e c t any changes which may have occurred as a result of the increased manpower assigned to the c i t i z e n complaint function. The performance accounts for the t h i r d quarter of 1974 reveal a number of interesting developments to the Inspector. A l l goals set at the beginning of the year were met. Police units assigned to "in-progress" c a l l s arrived, i n 50 per cent of a l l cases, before the offender f l e d the scene. The public safety margin reached 2.5 units of seriousness. And, public s a t i s f a c t i o n with police service rose to 7.5 units of s a t i s f a c t i o n . Furthermore, operating objectives were almost completely met. Call-load capacity per hour rose to 75 per cent of peak c a l l - l o a d per hour. Travel time was right on target at 5 minutes per c a l l . Clearance time was the same as during the second quarter, but s t i l l down 5 minutes from what i t had been during the f i r s t quarter of the year. (Other things being equal, clearance time i s a function of manpower proficiency. Since proficiency remained the same for the t h i r d as for the second quarter, there was no reason to expect an improvement i n clearance time during the t h i r d quarter.) And, l a s t l y , adequate police coverage did not change. But i t was w e l l i n excess of the operating objective set at the beginning of the year, even i n the f i r s t quarter. TABLE 6.12 Hypothetical Indicators of Input, Output and Impact for the Public Safety Program, Citizen Complaint Function: Shift Averages, D i s t r i c t 1, July 1 to September 30, 1974 INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT Manpower: Constables 6 Average Proficiency Index 8.0 Cost $300.00 Vehicles: Marked Cars 6 Cost $30.00 Peak Call-load/Hour 16 c a l l s Average Call-load/Hour 7.5 c a l l s Call-load Capacity/Hour 12 c a l l s Total Call-load 60 c a l l s Total Call-load Capacity 96 c a l l s Total Crime Reported to Police: - Frequency 60 charges - Average Degree of Seriousness 8.0 units Percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has fled the scene 50 per cent Total Cost $330.00 Service Time 30 minutes Travel Time 5 minutes Clearance Time 20 minutes * Average Seriousness of Reported Crime where police arrive before the offender has fled the scene 7.0 units Percentage of Total Call-load receiving adequate police coverage 100 per cent > Average Seriousness of Reported Crime where police arrive after the offender has fled the scene 9.5 units Public Safety Margin = (9.5 - 7.0) = 2.5 units Public Satisfaction with Police Service 7.5 units 152 The Output Effic i e n c y of the c i t i z e n complaint function has risen from $4.58 i n the f i r s t quarter, to $3.77 i n the second, and to $3.44 i n the t h i r d quarter. The marginal output e f f i c i e n c y of the c i t i z e n complaint function between the second and the t h i r d quarters i s such that an increase i n one police unit has resulted i n a 10 per cent increase i n the number of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive at the scene before the offender has f l e d . The Marginal Effectiveness of the c i t i z e n complaint function i s declining. Between the f i r s t and second quarters, a drop i n travel time of 1 minute was thought to cause an increase of 5 percent i n the number of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has fl e d the scene, and a 0.25 unit decline i n the average seriousness of a l l reported crime. However, between the second and t h i r d quarters, a drop i n travel time of 1 minute i s thought to cause an increase of only 3.33* per cent i n the number of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has fl e d the scene, and a 0.166* unit decline i n the average seriousness of a l l reported crime. The Marginal Impact Ef f i c i e n c y of either an increase i n the l e v e l of proficiency of manpower by 1.0 unit, or an increase i n the number of manpower by 1.0 unit, would appear to bring about a decline i n the average seriousness of a l l reported crime of 0.5 units. In this sense, they may w e l l be regarded as a l t e r n a t i v e means of achieving a s i m i l a r end. In conclusion, the i l l u s t r a t i o n presented i n this section of the chapter has served a useful purpose. I t has shown how performance accounts can be a he l p f u l tool for setting goals and operating objectives, monitoring the resources allocated to police services and the re s u l t i n g changes i n productivity and 153 effectiveness, providing insights into the most e f f e c t i v e strategy for improving performance and, f i n a l l y , evaluating whether police services are achieving t h e i r goals and meeting t h e i r operating objectives. 6.5 Areas of Further Refinement and Research In reviewing this chapter, there emerge three p a r t i c u l a r areas which demand further refinement. The f i r s t i s the l o g i c of the indicators i n r e l a t i o n to the police function with which they are related. The second i s further refinement of the concepts themselves. Third i s the development of s t a t i s t i c a l l y sound survey design i n order to quantify the concepts which have been i d e n t i f i e d as performance indicators. And, f i n a l l y , empirical testing of the casual linkages or hypotheses which are implied i n the interpretation of the accounts. But what i s a l l t his leading up to? There i s one use of the accounts which has not been demonstrated i n the i l l u s t r a t i o n . This i s the use of the data contained i n the accounts for the purpose of developing a predictive mathematical model of the police organization, the community i n which i t operates, and the linkages between them both. I t i s an undeniable fact that gradually, over the years, the information contained i n the accounts w i l l enable the construction °f an accurate and comprehensive predictive model for te s t i n g the effectiveness of proposed a l l o c a t i v e decisions. This model w i l l be comprised of the production functions and s o c i a l welfare functions which have been referred to e a r l i e r i n the study as providing the linkages between the input and output, and output and impact accounts. Once such a model i s i n operation, the planner 154 w i l l no longer base his choice of a p a r t i c u l a r a l l o c a t i v e pattern upon i n t u i t i o n or guesswork, but w i l l make his decision with the aid of an empirical model which has predicted the most e f f e c t i v e pattern of resource a l l o c a t i o n . 6.6 Concluding Remarks It i s inter e s t i n g to note that from a purely a n a l y t i c a l point of view, the process of i d e n t i f y i n g entries for the performance accounts has merit. This process forces one to ask some rather penetrating questions, the answers to which are sometimes quite revealing. There are only tx</o direct means by which police can reduce the seriousness of crime upon i t s victims. The f i r s t i s by increasing the percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s for which police arrive before the suspect(s) leave (s) the scene. And, the second i s by improving the methods and techniques of police intervention during a crime i n progress. Thus, the only case where there i s potential for the c i t i z e n complaint function to reduce or eliminate the seriousness of crime upon i t s victims i s for police to arrive at the scene before crime i s completed. The only way the average seriousness of a l l reported crime can be lowered i s for the percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s to be maintained or increased, and for the percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s where police arrive before the offender has f l e d the scene to also be maintained or increased. The f i r s t i s closely'related to the nature of the crime, but also to the role of the c i t i z e n i n a l e r t i n g police of criminal a c t i v i t y i n progress. The second i s 155 related to the a b i l i t y of police to reduce response time to the point that they are a r r i v i n g at the scene of "in-progress" c a l l s ( i n the majority of cases) before the offender has f l e d . The next chapter develops performance accounts f o r the Apprehension and Recovery Program. 156 CHAPTER 7 THE APPREHENSION AND RECOVERY PROGRAM AND ITS SUPPORTING FUNCTIONS 7.1 Introduction The Apprehension and Recovery Program i s the th i r d and l a s t police program to be dealt with. Viewed i n the context of the criminal process - prevention, c r i s i s intervention and remedial or corrective strategies - the Apprehension and Recovery Program i s l o g i c a l l y the l a s t i n the sequence. Once the crime has commenced, the preventive strategy i s irr e l e v a n t . And, after the suspect has f l e d the scene and the crime completed, the opportunity for c r i s i s intervention has passed. The one police strategy remaining with any poss-i b i l i t y of attaining i t s goals i s the Apprehension and Recovery Program. The Apprehension and Recovery Program of the Vancouver Police Department has four goals: 1. to apprehend suspects 2. to recover stolen property 3. to sieze contraband goods or property and 4. to obtain physical evidence, supported by a n a l y t i c a l or expert documentation wherever necessary, and to secure material witnesses of crime, i n order: 157 a) to j u s t i f y l e g a l arrest or summons of suspects b) to warrant bringing the suspects to t r i a l , and c) to support prosecution of the suspects i n court Three functions of the Department were seen as supporting the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program. They were: 1. the c i t i z e n complaint function 2. the investigation function and 3. the preventive pa t r o l function Should the reader wish to refresh his memory of the description of these functions, he i s referred to Chapter 3, pages 56 through to 58 where they have been defined i n considerable d e t a i l . The purpose of this chapter i s fourfold. F i r s t , i t i s to i d e n t i f y indicators of output for the three police functions seen as supporting t h i s program: the c i t i z e n complaint, the investigation and the preventive p a t r o l functions. Second, i t i s to i d e n t i f y indicators of goal attainment f o r the Apprehension and Recovery Program. Third, i t i s to i l l u s t r a t e how the performance accounts for this program can be used as an aid to resource a l l o c a t i o n and program evaluation. And, l a s t l y t h i s chapter w i l l attempt to pinpoint areas i n need of further refinement and research. 158 7.2 Proposed Entries for the Output Account of the Apprehension and Recovery Program  The entries contained i n the output account for the Apprehension and Recovery Program vary according to function. But at this point i n the discussion, this i s hardly a new proposition. I t was also the case for the Crime Prevention and Public Safety Programs previously discussed. The three functions seen as supporting the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program are the c i t i z e n complaint, the investigation and the preventive p a t r o l functions. Each i s discussed below under separate heading. 7i2.1 The C i t i z e n Complaint Function and the Apprehension and Recovery Program  The f i r s t phase of the c i t i z e n complaint function i s to ensure the safety and well-being of persons and property as a supporting function of the Public Safety Program. The second phase of the c i t i z e n complaint function i s , on the other hand, to apprehend suspects and recover stolen property at or near the scene of the crime as a supporting function of the Apprehension and Recovery Program. The point at which the f i r s t phase ends and the second phase begins i s often d i f f i c u l t to pinpoint exactly. The indicators of output for the c i t i z e n complaint function have already been developed and discussed i n considerable d e t a i l i n Chapter 6, pages 108 through to 123. They were found to be: 1. actual c a l l - l o a d 2. c a l l - l o a d capacity 159 3. service time a) response time b) clearance time and 4. the percentage of c a l l - l o a d receiving adequate coverage I t i s clear that the output indicators of the c i t i z e n complaint function which were important to the Public Safety Program are equally as c r u c i a l to the Apprehension and Recovery Program. Total response time, the percentage of "in-progress" c a l l s for which police arrive before the suspect leaves the scene, and the percentage of c a l l - l o a d receiving adequate coverage a l l have a s i g n i f i c a n t bearing on the l i k e l i h o o d that the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program w i l l be attained. I t i s int e r e s t i n g to note, however, that whereas the goals of the Public Safety Program cannot possibly be met i f police arrive after the suspect has f l e d the scene, the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program may s t i l l be attained through the investigation function which follows. 7.2.2 The Investigation Function and the Apprehension and Recovery Program . While the c i t i z e n complaint function consists of a set of standardized a c t i v i t i e s which occur i n a highly predictable sequence, the investigation function i s made up of a group of almost random a c t i v i t i e s which may occur i n any one of an i n f i n i t e number of combinations. ' 160 There i s often an imperceptible t r a n s i t i o n from the c i t i z e n complaint function to the investigation function at the scene of a crime. Generally, the patrolman who i s assigned to the c a l l , carries out an " i n i t i a l i n vestigation" at the scene. However, i f for some reason the i n i t i a l investigation i s considered incomplete or inaccurate by either the N.C.O. supervising the patrolman or the departmental Quality Control Unit personnel, a "follow-up investigation" i s usually requested. The follow-up investigation i s preferably carried out by the patrolman who o r i g i n a l l y was assigned the c a l l because of his f a m i l i a r i t y with the background and circumstances of the case. On the other hand, i f the crime which i n i t i a t e d the c a l l f a l l s within a recognized area of s p e c i a l i z a t i o n of the Detective D i v i s i o n , i t may be referred to the appropriate squad of that d i v i s i o n . Regardless of whether the investigation occurs at the scene immediately following the crime ( i n i t i a l investigation) or whether i t takes place sometime thereafter (follow-up investigation), the various a c t i v i t i e s which comprise th i s function are b a s i c a l l y the same. While there does not appear to be any hard and fast rule as to the sequence of these a c t i v i t i e s , they could occur i n the following order: 1. establish whether, i n fact, an offense has actually occurred, and i f so, determine what s p e c i f i c offense has occurred 2. v i s i t to and examination of the scene of the crime 3. interview victims, witnesses and others thought to be i n some way connected with the crime 161 question possible suspects search vehicles and premises stake-out and survey locations and premises check departmental inventory of l o s t and stolen property and check Daily Crime Bu l l e t i n s for possible suspects, crimes with s i m i l a r modus operandi, arrested persons and recovered property. These various a c t i v i t i e s could be carried out by uniformed patrolmen, plain-clothed detectives or undercover agents. Two important factors which often may have a bearing on a c t i v i t i e s carried out under this function are the proficiency of the investigator and the nature of the crime being investigated. Proficiency here refers to the concept of a proficiency index which was developed i n Chapter 4, pages 70 through to 73. B a s i c a l l y t h i s concept attempts to summarize the i n t e l l i g e n c e , s k i l l s and t r a i n i n g , and perseverance and dedication of the investigator i n a single numerical index. In addition, the nature of the crime, that i s the background and circumstances surrounding the case, may also determine to a s i g n i f i c a n t degree the p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s of the investigation functions which are most rigorously pursued. Given that these are the a c t i v i t i e s of the investigation function, the question then becomes, what indicators of output do these various a c t i v i t i e s suggest? Following the format established i n previous chapters, quantitative indicators w i l l be dealt with f i r s t , followed by q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 162 Quantitative Indicators. The f i r s t indicator of output for the investigation function would appear to be caseload. E s s e n t i a l l y , caseload i s to the investigation function what c a l l - l o a d i s to the c i t i z e n complaint function. Caseload can be calculated at the end of each month to provide an up-to-date measure of the inventory of cases which must be terminated through the investigation function. Caseload should be broken down i n the following manner: Cases Brought Forward from previous month + Cases Opened during current month - Cases Closed during current month = Cases at month-end I t i s important to note that the number of cases opened each month cannot be d i r e c t l y affected by the output of the investigation function. However, the number of cases closed during a month can be related to the productivity of the investigation function. Any changes should be examined s t a t i s t i c a l l y to determine whether or not they represent a change i n the trend of the previous s i x months or some other appropriate standard. The al l o c a t i o n of additional manpower to the investigation function should only be considered i f there i s an upward s h i f t i n that trend. In conjunction with caseload, one could also develop some standard of caseload capacity. Comparing the caseload capacity of policemen allocated to this function to the current actual caseload, w i l l provide some in d i c a t i o n of whether or not additional manpower i s required i n order to accomplish current goals, expressed i n terms of the rate with which cases are brought to successful conclusion. The second kind of quantitative indicators of output are indisputably measures of productivity or xjork done, but i t i s questionable whether or not they can be linked i n a casual sense to performance. They are l i s t e d below: - the number of v i s i t s to the scene of the crime - the number of victims, witnesses and other associated with the crime who have been interviewed - the number of suspects who have been questioned - the number of vehicles and premises which have been searched These indicators of productivity are more than l i k e l y related to ithe nature of the crimes occurring in the c i t y , rather than to police performance. However they are indicators of the work being done regardless of the reasons behind them Qualitative Indicators. I t i s probably worthwhile r e i t e r a t i n g that the d i s t i n c t i o n between quantitative indicators and q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output i s that the former refer to how much while the l a t t e r refer to how w e l l the function i s being carried out. There are f i v e q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output which have been i d e n t i f i e d as a result of the study: _ case length - case seriousness - case complexity - completeness of investigation - acceptability of investigation reports Case length relates to the average length of time i t takes for police to bring to satisfactory conclusion an average case. Again, attempts to interpret this indicator as being anything but exactly what i t r e a l l y i s should be avoided. Serious questions can be asked about whether i t i s 164 related only to the crime occurring i n the c i t y or also related, at least i n some degree, to police performance, whether or not t h i s indicator i s related to case seriousness or case complexity, or whether i t can be related to police proficiency at investigation can only be confirmed after s u f f i c i e n t data have been collected to determine which of these hypotheses are supported by s t a t i s t i c a l inference. Case seriousness i s a q u a l i t a t i v e indicator which can be developed from the S e l l i n and Wolfgang (1964) scheme previously discussed i n connection with a q u a l i t a t i v e indicator of crime (Chapter 6, pages 124 through 133). One of the f i r s t a c t i v i t i e s of the investigation function i s to ascertain whether, i n f a c t , a crime or crimes have occurred. Furthermore, investigators at the scene must also ascertain, i n a much broader sense, the nature and impact of the crime upon the victims. From t h i s information a q u a l i t a t i v e index of the seriousness of the case can be developed based upon the S e l l i n g and Wolfgang (1964) scheme previously discussed. Such a measure could be called case seriousness and would provide a q u a l i t a t i v e indicator to compliment the quantitative indicators of output which have already been suggested. Case complexity i s another q u a l i t a t i v e indicator of output which could be developed to provide management with a s l i g h t l y d ifferent view of the caseload currently under investigation. A measure such as the average number of charges per case could be interpreted as an indicator of the complexity of cases under investigation by police. i A f i n a l q u a l i t a t i v e indicator of output for the investigation function i s a measure of the completeness or thoroughness of the investigation. There appear to be two possible measures of this dimension. The f i r s t i s an 165 empirical one, the second i s more or less subjective i n nature. The f i r s t i s based upon whether or not certain basic a c t i v i t i e s of the investigation function have been carried out with respect to each i n d i v i d u a l case. At this stage of evolution, there appear to be only four p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s which should be included i n the c a l c u l a t i o n of this index. They are (1) examination of the scene of the crime, (2) interviewing of victims of the crime, (3) interviewing of witnesses to the crime, and (4) questioning suspects i n i t i a l l y i d e n t i f i e d by victims or witnesses at the scene. The reason for qua l i f y i n g the l a s t item with the phrase, " i d e n t i f i e d by victims or witnesses at the scene", i s that numerous suspects may materialize during the course of an investigation, making a firm basis for comparison impossible. Let us take a concrete example and i l l u s t r a t e how this indicator of completeness might be developed. A purse-snatching has occurred i n the K i t s i l a n o Area of Vancouver City. The v i c t i m was an elderly lady returning home from shopping. Witnesses to the crime included her two companions and three passers-by. There was only one suspect i d e n t i f i e d at the scene. In t h i s case, investigators examined the scene of the crime, interviewed the v i c t i m and three of the witnesses, and questioned the suspect who was i d e n t i f i e d by the witnesses to the crime. In t h i s example, Table 7.1 on the following page i l l u s t r a t e s how the index of completeness would be developed. 166 TABLE 7.1 Development of Objective Measure of the Completeness of the Investigation Function Case 1: Purse-snatching Examination at the scene Interviewing of victims Interviewing of witnesses Questioning of suspects Totals Actual Number Completed 1 1 3 1 Total Possible Number Completed 1 1 5 1 Index of Completeness = 6/8 x 100 = 75 per cent The second measure of completeness i s a more subjective one. Each investigation report i s examined i n i t i a l l y by the s h i f t supervisor and f i n a l l y by quality control personnel. I f , at either of these stages, the report i s considered to be inaccurate or incomplete i n any way, the faulty r e p o r t i s returned to the o f f i c e r for follow-up. A simple i n d i c a t i o n of the p e r c e n t a g e of investigation reports which are returned to the or i g i n a t i n g o f f i c e r because they do not meet the standards of investigation set by the department would be a useful piece of information for management. In summarizing the quantitative and q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output for the investigation function, the following l i s t i s presented i n Table 7.2 on the following page. 167 TABLE 7.2 Indicators of Output for the Investigation Function  Quantitative Indicators - Caseload Capacity - Actual Caseload - Number of V i s i t s to the Scene of Crime - Number of Victims, Witnesses and Others interviewed - Number of Suspects questioned - Number of Vehicles and Premises searched Qualitative Indicators - Duration of Investigation - Case Seriousness - Case Complexity - Completeness of Investigation - Percentage of Investigation Reports rejected In conclusion, i t must be recognized that the investigation function contains mental as w e l l as physical processes. However, the current technology of s o c i a l measurement has serious l i m i t a t i o n s . Unless an a c t i v i t y exhibits a physical manifestation, i n other words, reveals i t s e l f d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y i n a physical deed or action, i t s occurrence must remain speculation. Many a c t i v i t i e s of the investigation function may be regarded as i n t u i t i v e , part of the creative thought process, and as such unmeasurable. As a r e s u l t , the indicators of output of the investigation function set forth i n t h i s section only relate to those a c t i v i t i e s which exhibit a physical manifestation. 168 7.2.3 The Preventive P a t r o l Function and the Apprehension and Recovery Program •  As stated i n the introduction to th i s chapter, there are three police functions which support the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program. They are: (1) the c i t i z e n complaint function, (2) the investigation function, and (3) the preventive p a t r o l function. I t should be recalled that the c r i t e r i o n for including a function as a component of a program was that the a c t i v i t i e s of the function help to bring about achievement of the goals of the program. I t i s i n this sense that these three police functions may be considered supportive of the Apprehension and Recovery Program. Preventive patrol has been previously described as.the physical demonstration of police presence. Those readers wishing to refresh th e i r understanding of thi s police function should review Chapter 3, page 56 and Chapter 5, page 86, for a more thorough discussion of th i s function. Entries of the preventive patrol function for the output account were also suggested i n Chapter 5, page 86. They are l i s t e d on the following page i n Table 7.3. 169 T A B L E 7.3 Proposed Indicators of Output for the Preventive Pa t r o l Function  - the number of rounds of the beat walked during each s h i f t - the number of miles of the area patrolled during each s h i f t - the number of persons checked for i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and reason for being i n the area - the number of vehicles checked for r e g i s t r a t i o n and searched for stolen or contraband goods - the number of premises checked for security In conclusion, i t can be said that the preventive p a t r o l function i s more a physical than a mental process. The motive behind preventive patrol and the s t y l e with which i t i s carried out can vary dramatically. I t can range from the routine patrol of a designated area to a conscious and pre-meditated attempt to seek out those obscure corners of a neighbourhood where trouble i s most l i k e l y to happen. I t i s unfortunate that, at this stage, there do not appear to be any q u a l i t a t i v e indicators of output for the preventive pa t r o l function which might r e f l e c t some of the subtleties of i t s execution. 7.3 Proposed Entries for the Impact Account of the Apprehension and Recovery Program  The Apprehension and Recovery Program of the police department i s the l a s t strategy i n the sequence. I t assumes that an offense has already been completed. Thus, i t does not aim towards preventing crime, nor does i t attempt 170 to intervene during crime i n progress. E s s e n t i a l l y , i t i s designed to bring the criminal to j u s t i c e , and to recover stolen property or sieze contraband goods. The i s s u e °f g o a l attainment i s always complex and ambiguous. For example, with respect to the Crime Prevention Program, one could j u s t i f i a b l y ask: did police action t r u l y prevent crime, or did i t merely cause i t to assume a less detectible form, or did i t just divert i t to another area of the c i t y ? Furthermore, with respect to the Public Safety Program, one also might legitimately ask: did police intervention actually reduce the seriousness of crime upon i t s victims, or did i t perhaps r e a l l y i n t e n s i f y the severity of crime, or did i t have l i t t l e or no effect whatsoever? One can say that the indicators of impact of the Apprehension and Recovery Program are r e l a t i v e l y direct and indisputable. However, the d i f f i c u l t y with t h i s t h i r d and l a s t program i s the interpretation of these indicators. The t r a n s l a t i o n of goal statements into measures of impact for the Apprehension and Recovery Program i s f a i r l y simple. It involves few subtleties and l i t t l e supposition. Thus, the following indicators of impact are proposed for t h i s program: - the number of offenders i d e n t i f i e d at the scene - the number of suspects arrested - the number of suspects arrested and charged - the number of suspects arrested, charged and convicted - the number of,offenders s t i l l at large - the d o l l a r value of stolen property - the d o l l a r value of stolen property recovered 1 7 1 - the dollar value of contraband goods estimated to be in the City - the dollar value of contraband goods siezed Whil e the l i s t of indicators of impact appears complicated, i t can actually be broken down into three simple components: ( 1 ) suspects, ( 2 ) stolen property and ( 3 ) contraband goods. Of these, the indicators dealing with suspects are the most d i f f i c u l t to interpret. Two factors important to the understanding of the indicators relating to s u s P e c t s a r e t n e value of the indicators, that i s , whether they should be considered positive or negative, and the actors involved in making the decisions which generate the indicators. If the suspect is innocent, his arrest, which may include detention, may be considered at least inconvenience, i f not outright harassment. On the other hand, i f the suspect is guilty, his release before conviction i s an indication of police ineffectiveness, among other things. The further through the Justice System, the more li k e l y that the suspect is guilty and therefore that release before conviction is an indication of police ineffectiveness rather than harassment. Either way, however, the numerical difference between suspects arrested and suspects ultimately convicted must have a negati- v e inference for police performance. The other important indicator of impact relates to the number of offenders s t i l l at large. This is defined to be the numerical difference between the number of offenders identified at the scene of a crime and the number of 172 suspects arrested. This i s also a negative indicator of police performance. Only, i n this case, i t i s c l e a r l y an indicator of police ineffectiveness. I t i s also important to recognize the diff e r e n t actors involved i n various decision points throughout the Justice System. I t i s so l e l y a police decision whether a suspect i s actually arrested and whether an arrested suspect w i l l be charged or released after 24-hours. However, once the suspect has been charged, several other actors become involved i n the decision-making process of the Justice System. These are the City Prosecutor, the. P r o v i n c i a l Court Judge, and i n the case of a t r i a l , a c i t i z e n jury. Thus, one could make a legitimate case that police are only one of the actors involved i n the decision of whether or not the suspect i s convicted or acquitted. However, police do have a major role i n th i s process. Police have developed the case on which the charges are based, and on the basis of the case and the City Prosecutor's presentation of i t , the Judge decides whether to uphold the charges or to dismiss them. Furthermore, during the court proceedings, police may be cal l e d upon to give testimony, c r i t i c a l testimony i n many cases upon which the outcome of the proceedings may depend. The two indicators r e l a t i n g to stolen property are more readily interpreted. Police performance can be expressed i n terms of the d o l l a r value of recovered stolen property as a percentage of the d o l l a r value of a l l stolen property. The t o t a l d o l l a r value of stolen property, i n i t s e l f , would not be that revealing an indicator of impact. S i m i l a r l y , a statement of the t o t a l d o l l a r value of contraband goods siezed by police i n the City has l i t t l e meaning unless compared with the t o t a l 173 d o l l a r value of contraband goods estimated to be i n the C i t y . The former as a percentage of the l a t t e r would seem to be a more revealing s t a t i s t i c . In conclusion, i t can be said that eight out of the nine indicators of impact which have been i d e n t i f i e d (see pages 170 and 171), can be calculated from information already collected by the Department. The one indicator which w i l l be d i f f i c u l t to measure i s "the d o l l a r value of contraband goods estimated to be i n the C i t y " . However, the method by which i t could be calculated i s quite feas i b l e . For example, probably the most s i g n i f i c a n t contraband good available i n Vancouver today i s Heroin. The d o l l a r value of Heroin can be calculated by estimating the number of users i n the C i t y , the average d a i l y rate of intake, and the current market price of the drug. The product of these three figures w i l l -provide an estimate of the t o t a l d o l l a r value of d a i l y transactions i n the drug. 7.4 Use and Interpretation of the Input, Output and Impact Accounts for the Apprehension and Recovery Program  Now that indicators of output and impact have been i d e n t i f i e d , the time has come to offer a p r a c t i c a l example of how performance accounts can a s s i s t management i n evaluating the ef f i c i e n c y and effectiveness of the Apprehension and Recovery Program, and how such an evaluation may lead to a r e - a l l o c a t i o n of police resources and, as a r e s u l t , improved e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness. Different areas of the c i t y are often s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t i n phys i c a l , demographic, s o c i a l and economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Because of these kinds of differences, one might expect that the p r o f i l e of crime i n each area i s also 174 s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t . For purposes of i l l u s t r a t i o n , l e t us take Po l i c e D i s t r i c t s 1 and 3 i n the City of Vancouver. D i s t r i c t 1 contains the West End and downtown business areas, while D i s t r i c t 3 encompasses the south eastern r e s i d e n t i a l area of the City. Figure 7.1 on the following page i l l u s t r a t e s the p r o f i l e of crime for D i s t r i c t s 1 and 3 i n the form of a histogram of the percentage frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n of three types of crime: robbery, breaking and entering, and theft from auto. One can see that there are s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the p r o f i l e of crime i n each d i s t r i c t . The greatest difference between the two d i s t r i c t s i s i n the percentage frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n of robbery. In D i s t r i c t 3 , robbery represents 6 per cent of the t o t a l number of crimes reported to p o l i c e , while i n D i s t r i c t 1 robbery represents 13 per cent of the t o t a l or, i n other words, over twice the percentage i n D i s t r i c t 3 . There are also s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the percentage frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n of the other types of crime between the two d i s t r i c t s . Breaking and entering i s 47 per cent of the t o t a l crime reported i n D i s t r i c t 1, while i t i s 58 per cent i n D i s t r i c t 3 . And, theft from auto i s 40 per cent i n D i s t r i c t 1, but only 3 6 per cent i n D i s t r i c t 3 . Thus there are sound l o g i c a l reasons for expecting the p r o f i l e of crime to be dif f e r e n t among the four police d i s t r i c t s i n the Cit y , and an analysis of empirical data for D i s t r i c t s 1 and 3 confirm t h i s expectation. And why i s t h i s an important fact for the Apprehension and Recovery Program of the police department? Simply because of the hypothesis that each police function which supports the Apprehension and Recovery Program i s more e f f e c t i v e i n clearing cases of a p a r t i c u l a r type of crime, and less e f f e c t i v e i n clearing cases of other types of crime. 175 Robbery FIGURE 7.1 P r o f i l e of Crime: A comparison between Pol i c e D i s t r i c t s 1 and 3, Percentage Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n for the Period January 1, 1973 to December 31, 1974  Pol i c e D i s t r i c t 1 Pol i c e D i s t r i c t 3 Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto Robbery Breaking Theft and from Entering Auto Note: Histograms have been rounded to nearest 1/2 per cent Source: Vancouver Police Department, Weekly Crime Reports While t h i s hypothesis has not been formally stated, l e t alone tested in the l i t e r a t u r e , the p r a c t i c a l experience of police Inspectors i n charge of each d i s t r i c t unequivocally Supports t h i s supposition. Their argument runs as follows. Let us f i r s t examine robbery i n order to determine which of the three police functions supporting the Apprehension and Recovery Program i s probably the most e f f e c t i v e i n apprehending offenders and recovering stolen property. Robberies are reported to police almost immediately, whereas breaking and entering or theft from auto are not. There are several reasons for t h i s . 176 Robbery always involves a face to face encounter between v i c t i m and offender. Moreover, the v i c t i m i s acutely aware of what i s happening to him, since robbery always involves e i t h e r v i o l e n c e or the threat of vi o l e n c e . Furthermore, because of the v i o l e n t nature of the crime and because i t often occurs i n open pu b l i c spaces such as a st r e e t corner or sidewalk, passersby are frequently witnesses to the crime and are able to report i t to p o l i c e while i t i s s t i l l i n progress. Together, these f a c t o r s act to make p o l i c e aware of the crime e i t h e r while i t i s s t i l l i n progress or s h o r t l y t h e r e a f t e r . As a consequence, the offender i s e i t h e r at or near the scene of the robbery when p o l i c e a r r i v e at the scene i n carrying out the c i t i z e n complaint function. I f p o l i c e a r r i v e while the crime i s s t i l l i n progress, apprehension of the offender and recovery of the s t o l e n property i s almost assured. Even i f the suspect has already f l e d the scene, p o l i c e c a r r y i n g out the c i t i z e n complaint function can e f f -e c t i v e l y cordon o f f the area surrounding the scene and by a systematic search of the area locate the offender and obtain the stolen goods. Thus, f o r purposes of t h i s example, i t w i l l be assumed that the c i t i z e n complaint function i s probably the most e f f e c t i v e f unction f o r c l e a r i n g robbery cases. The second type of crime to be examined i s breaking and entering. In contrast to the crime of robbery, breaking and entering does not always involve a face to face encounter between the v i c t i m and the offender. Furthermore, apart from the i n i t i a l breaking and entering of the premises, most of the a c t i v i t y involved i n t h i s type of crime occurs within a b u i l d i n g and i s therefore out of s i t e from any passersby, i n c l u d i n g p o l i c e . Both these functions act to retard discovery of the offense u n t i l long a f t e r the offender has f l e d the scene with the sto l e n property. Thus, when p o l i c e f i n a l l y a r r i v e , there i s l i t t l e l i k e l i h o o d that the offender w i l l be apprehended 177 or the stolen property recovered. The case i s therefore referred to the investigation function for follow-up or continuing investigation. For these reasons, i t i s assumed for purposes of the example that the investigation function i s probably the most e f f e c t i v e i n clearing breaking and entering cases. The t h i r d , and l a s t , crime to be examined i s theft from auto. The potential for discovering clues or establishing motive i n the case of a theft from auto are much less than i n that of breaking and entering. Furthermore, because theft from auto occurs when the owner has l e f t the vehicle and i t i s d i f f i c u l t for passersby to determine whether the vehicle i s being opened by a possible t h i e f or the r i g h t f u l owner, the crime i s often not discovered u n t i l some time after i t has actually occurred. This makes i t less l i k e l y to be cleared by the c i t i z e n complaint function. I t may appear that the preventive p a t r o l function i s probably the most ef f e c t i v e function for clearing theft from auto cases by default. But there are several positive factors i n i t s favor. F i r s t , preventive patrol occurs along the street where cars are most l i k e l y to be parked or i n parking l o t s near or adjacent to the street. Second, policemen are trained observers and can deduce criminal intent whereas a casual passerby may not. And t h i r d , p r i o r to going out on p a t r o l , police review recent crime trends i n th e i r d i s t r i c t i n order to determine which areas they should give special attention. If thefts from auto are on the r i s e , they quickly determine the areas being most heavily h i t and give them special attention. Thus, these three factors operate to increase the prob a b i l i t y that preventive patrol w i l l perhaps be the most e f f e c t i v e function for clearing theft from auto cases. On the other 178 hand, there i s l i t t l e l i k e l i h o o d that a theft from auto w i l l be reported while i n progress, thus r u l i n g out the p o s s i b i l i t y of the c i t i z e n complaint function being productive. And, there i s l i t t l e evidence or motive upon which to base a f r u i t f u l investigation. The foregoing discussion provides the rationale behind the assumption that each police function supporting the Apprehension and Recovery Program i s more suited to clearing one type of crime than another. The implication for a l l o c a t i n g police resources among the three functions of the Apprehension and Ivecovery Program i s clear. Resources should be allocated among functions i n proportion to the percentage frequency of crimes for which they are most aptly designed to clear. In order to develop data which w i l l r a t i o n a l l y demonstrate how this proposition w i l l work, i t i s necessary to construct a simple mathematical model which defines the relationship between a p a r t i c u l a r police function and the probability that i t w i l l clear a p a r t i c u l a r type of crime.. Thus, data contained i n the performance accounts which follow are based upon the mathematical p r o b a b i l i t i e s stated below: 1. P(R) C = 2P(R). = 2P(R) 2. P(B & E). = 2P(B & E) = 2P(B & E) 1 c and 3. P(TfA) = 2P(TfA) = 2P(TfA). p e l wher e R i s robbery, B & E i s breaking and entering, TfA i s theft from auto, c i s c i t i z e n complaint function, i i s investigation function, and p i s preventive pa t r o l function. 179 Expressed i n words, the f i r s t statement means that the p r o b a b i l i t y a robbery w i l l be cleared by the c i t i z e n complaint function i s twice the pro-b a b i l i t y that i t w i l l be cleared by either the investigation function or the preventive p a t r o l function. The second and t h i r d statements can be interpreted i n an analogous fashion. Tables 7.4, 7.5 and 7.6 i l l u s t r a t e the format and content of a set of hypothetical performance accounts which have been developed upon the model described. In these i l l u s t r a t i o n s i t i s assumed that the rate of transformation from input to output and from output to impact i s a simple arithmetic pro-gression, whereby a 10 per cent increase i n input w i l l lead to a 10 per cent increase i n output which w i l l , i n turn, lead to a 10 per cent increase i n impact. I t i s further assumed that the three types of crime occur i n the following frequencies over a three month period: robbery, 100; breaking and entering, 500; and theft of auto, 400. I t i s also assumed that at the end of the three month period those cases which remain uncleared w i l l be removed from the active caseload. After b r i e f l y reviewing the performance account for the Apprehension and Recovery Program i n Table 7.4. for the f i r s t quarter of 1974 (which i s presented on the following page), the Inspector i n charge of police D i s t r i c t 1 decides that he should formulate goals for the program and establish operating objectives for the functions supporting the program i n order to evaluate his progress over the coming year. 180 TABLE 7.4 Indicators of Input, Output and Impact for the Apprehension and Recovery Program in Police D i s t r i c t 1: Hypothetical Data for the Period January 1 to March 31, 1974  INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT C i t i z e n Complaint Function 40 Constables 10 Vehicles $2,150.00 per diem $193,500.00 (90 days) Peak Call-load/Hour • 80 c a l l s Average Call-load/Hour 21 c a l l s C a l l - l o a d Capacity/Hour 80 c a l l s Average Response Time 7.5 minutes Average Service Time 30 minutes Average Travel "ime 5 minutes Average Clearance Time 25 minutes Type of Crime Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto Subtotal Total Cases Reported 100 500 400 . 1000 Cases Cleared by this Function 54 28 17 99 Clearance Rate  54% • 4% 10% Investigation Function 40 Constables 10 Vehicles $2,150.00 per diem $193,500.00 (90 days) Actual Caseload 901 Cases Caseload Capacity 240 Cases Average Caselength 2 weeks Number of Transactions/Case 5 To t a l Number of Transactions 1200 Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from auto Subtotal 100 500 400 1000 13 111 17 141 13% 22% 4% 14% Preventive P a t r o l Function 40 Constables 10 Vehicles $2,150.00 per diem $193,500.00 (90 days) Density of P o l i c e Coverage 10 miles/square mile Number of Transactions/Constable 10 To t a l Number of Transactions 400 Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from auto Subtotal 100 500 400 1000 13 28 67 108 13% 6% 17% 11% Program Totals 120 Constables 30 Vehicles $6,450.00 per diem $580,500.00 (90 days) (non-additive) Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto Total 100 500 400 1000 80 167 101 348 80% 34% 25% 35% Note: Cost per Constable per diem i s assumed to be $50.00 Cost per Vehicle per diem i s assumed to be $15.00 181 The Inspector believes that the i d e a l goal for the Apprehension and Recovery Program would be: - to maximize the average clearance rate which, i n turn, would maximize the percentage of offenders i d e n t i f i e d at the scene who are arrested, and maximize the percentage of arrested offenders who are ultimately convicted. The clearance rate i s the percentage of cases reported to police which have been cleared through arrest and conviction. I t i s therefore a f a i r l y accurate and complete statement of the success of the Apprehension and Recovery Program, although i t i s perhaps more general than i s desired, since i t f a i l s to indicate the exact point i n the process which requires remedial or corrective action. The Inspector r e a l i z e s , however, that such an i d e a l goal i s u n r e a l i s t i c for he recognizes the p r a c t i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s of the police e f f o r t . He therefore se t t l e s for a less impressive but more feasible program goal which i s to raise the average clearance rate from 35 to 37 per cent. Xh^re are three police functions which support the Apprehension and Recovery Program: the c i t i z e n complaint function, the investigation function, and the preventive patrol function. The next task for the Inspector i s to establish operating objectives for these functions which w i l l complement the g Q a l formulated for the Apprehension and Recovery Program. (In r e a l i t y , t h i s task would not be so straightforward because two of these functions support more than one program. The c i t i z e n complaint function supports the Public Safety Program as well as the Apprehension and Recovery Program. And, the preventive patrol function supports the Crime Prevention Program as w e l l as the Apprehension and Recovery Program. For t h i s reason, the Inspector would have to decide where the trade-off between achieving the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program and the goals of the competing programs l i e . This 182 p r a c t i c a l stumbling block i s discussed further i n Chapter 8.) After setting his goal for the Apprehension and Recovery Program, the Inspector once again examines the performance account for the f i r s t quarter to see what action he might take to help a t t a i n t h i s goal. He notices that the current average clearance rate for a l l crimes reported i n his d i s t r i c t (see Table 7.4 "Program Totals") i s 35 per cent. He further recognizes that the c i t i z e n complaint function i s the most e f f e c t i v e police function i n clearing robberies. This function cleared 54 per cent of a l l robberies reported to p o l i c e , whereas the investigation and preventive patrol functions combined cleared only a t o t a l of 26 per cent. He also observes that the investigation function i s the most e f f e c t i v e police function i n clearing breaking and entering cases. I t cleared 22 per cent of a l l breaking and entering cases reported to p o l i c e , while the c i t i z e n complaint and preventive pa t r o l functions combined cleared only a t o t a l of 12 per cent. Furthermore, the Inspector noted that the preventive p a t r o l function was the most e f f e c t i v e police function i n clearing theft from auto cases reported to p o l i c e , whereas the c i t i z e n complaint and investigation functions combined cleared only a t o t a l of 8 per cent over the same period. 183 The Inspector also recognized that the clearance rate for robbery cases was the highest i n h i s d i s t r i c t at 80 per cent of a l l reported cases, that th clearance rate for breaking and entering cases was the second highest i n his d i s t r i c t at 34 per cent of a l l reported cases, and l a s t l y , that the clearance rate for theft from auto cases was the lowest i n his d i s t r i c t at 25 per cent of a l l reported cases. The Inspector therefore decides to s h i f t his resources from the c i t i z e n complaint function to the investigation and preventive p a t r o l functions, hoping to r e t a i n the current clearance rate for robberies and, at the same time, to increase the clearance rate for breaking and entering and theft from auto cases, .'.s a resu l t of this decision, he establishes operating objectives for the c i t i z e n complaint function, the investigation function and the preventive p a t r o l function which he thinks w i l l complement the goal of the Apprehension and Recovery Program. These operating objectives are as follows: C i t i z e n Complaint Function - c a l l - l o a d capacity per hour should not f a l l below average c a l l - l o a d per hour - average response time should not exceed 12.5 minutes - average t r a v e l time should not exceed 10 minutes - average clearance time should not exceed 25 minutes - average service time should not exceed 35 minutes Investigation Function _ to raise caseload capacity from 25 to 37 per cent of actual caseload - to rai s e the t o t a l number of transactions from 1200 to 1800-I 184 Preventive P a t r o l Function - to raise the density of police coverage from 10 to 12 miles per square mile - to raise the t o t a l number of transactions from 400 to 480 In order to a t t a i n these operating objectives, the Inspector transfers 14 constables and 3 vehicles from the c i t i z e n complaint function to the investigation and preventive p a t r o l functions. He allocates 10 additional constables and 2 vehicles to the investigation, function, thus r a i s i n g i t s t o t a l complement of police resources to 50 constables and 12 vehicles. He also allocates 4 additional constables and 1 vehicle to the preventive p a t r o l function r a i s i n g i t s t o t a l complement of police resources to 44 constables and 11 vehicles. He then awaits the performance accounts f o r the second quarter i n order to evaluate the effect of th i s a l l o c a t i v e s h i f t i n resources. When he receives the performance accounts for the Apprehension and Recovery Program for the second quarter of 1974 which are presented i n Table 7.5 on the following page, the Inspector i n charge of D i s t r i c t 1 makes several important observations. F i r s t of a l l he notices that i n spite of a loss of 14 constables and 3 vehicles, the c i t i z e n complaint function i s s t i l l meeting i t s operating objectives, although the clearance rate for robbery has dropped from 80 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter to 67 per cent i n the second quarter of 1974. The Inspector also notices that as a result of 10 additional constables and 2 additional vehicles the investigation function i s moving forward to meet i t s operating objectives, and the clearance rate for breaking and entering has ris e n from 34 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter to 38 per cent i n the second quarter of the year. Furthermore, he observes that as a result of 4 additional constables and 1 additional vehicle the preventive p a t r o l function i s also 185 TABLE 7.5 Indicators of Input, Output and Impact for the Apprehension and Recovery Program in P o l i c e D i s t r i c t 1: Hypothetical Data for the Period • A p r i l 1 to June 30, 1974  INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT Ci t i z e n Complaint Function 26 Constables 7 Vehicles $1,405.00 per diem $127,855.00 (91 days) Peak Call-load/Hour 80 c a l l s Average Call-load/Hour 21 c a l l s C a l l - l o a d Capacity/Hour 48 c a l l s Average Response Time 10 minutes Average Service Time 32.5 minutes Average Travel Time 7.5 minutes Average Clearance Time 25 minutes Type of Crime Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto Subtotal Total Cases Reported 100 500 400 1000 Cases Cleared by this. Function 35 18 11 64 Clearance Rate  35% 4% 3% 6% Investigation Function 50 Constables 12 Vehicles $2,680.00 per diem $243,880.00 (91 days) Actual Caseload 936 Cases Caseload Capacity 300 Cases Average Caselength 2 Weeks Number of Transactions/Case 5 To t a l Number of Transactions 1500 Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from auto Subtotal 100 500 400 1000 17 139 . 21 177 17% 28% 5% 18% Preventive P a t r o l Function 44 Constables 11 Vehicles $2,365.00 per diem $215,215.00 (91 days) Density of P o l i c e Coverage 11 Miles/Square Mile Number of Transactions/Constable 10 Total Number of Transactions 440 Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from auto Subtotal 100 500 400 1000 15 31 74 120 15% 6% 19% 12% Program Totals 120 Constables Robbery 100 67 67% 30 Vehicles (non-additive) Breaking $6,450.00 per diem a n d 5 0 0 1 8 8 3 8 * Entering $586,950.00 (91 days) Theft from auto 400 106 27% T o t a l 1000 361 36% Note: Cost per Constable per diem i s assumed to be $50.00 Cost per Vehicle per diem i s assumed to be $15.00 186 moving forward to meet i t s operating objectives, and the clearance rate for theft from auto has risen from 25 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter to 27 per cent i n the second quarter of 1974. And, f i n a l l y , he concludes that as a resu l t of the o v e r a l l s h i f t i n police resources from the c i t i z e n complaint function to the investigation and preventive patrol functions, the average clearance rate for a l l crimes reported i n h i s d i s t r i c t has r i s e n from 35 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter to 36 per cent i n the second quarter of the year. This means that there has been 13 more crimes cleared i n the second quarter than i n the previous quarter of the year. As a result of these observations i n the performance accounts, the Inspector concludes that h i s strategy i s working and he decides to take i t even further. He therefore further reduces the magnitude of police resources allocated to the c i t i z e n complaint function and transfers them to the other police functions. He transfers 14 constables and 4 vehicles from the c i t i z e n complaint function. Of these he allocates an additional 10 constables and 3 vehicles to the investigation function, bringing i t s t o t a l complement of police resources to 60 constables and 15 vehicles. And, of the resources remaining, he allocates an additional 4 constables and 1 vehicle to the preventive patrol function, bringing i t s t o t a l complement of resources to 48 constables and 12 vehicles. The Inspector then awaits the performance accounts for the t h i r d quarter of 1974 i n order to assess the impact of this further s h i f t i n resources. When the Inspector has received the performance accounts for the Apprehension and Recovery Program f or the t h i r d quarter of 1974 which. are presented i n Table 7.6 on the following page, he makes some important observations. 107 TABLE 7.6 Indicators of Input, Output and Impact for the Apprehension and Recovery Program i n Police D i s t r i c t 1: Hypothetical Data for the Period July 1 to September 30, 1974  INPUT OUTPUT IMPACT C i t i z e n Complaint Function 12 Constables 3 Vehicles $645.00 per diem $59,340.00 (92 days) Peak Call-load/Hour 80 c a l l s Average Call-load/Hour 21 c a l l s C a l l - l o a d Capacity/Hour 21 c a l l s Average Response Time 12.5 minutes Average Service Time 35 minutes Average Travel Times 10 minutes Average Clearance Time 25 minutes Type of Crime Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto Subtotal T o t a l Cases Reported 100 500 400 1000 Cases Cleared by this Function 16 5 29 Clearance Rate 16% 2% 1% 3% Investigation Function 60 Constables Actual Caseload 971 Cases Robbery 100 20 20% 15 Vehicles Caseload Capacity 360 Cases Breaking $3,225.00 per diem Average Caselength 2 Weeks * n d , 5 0 0 1 6 7 3 3 2 * Entering $296,700.00 (92 days) Number of Transactions/Case 5 _, , Theft from , Q 0 ,„ To t a l Number of Transactions 1800 Auto Subtotal 1000 212 21% Preventive P a t r o l Function 48 Constables 12 Vehicles $2,580.00 per diem $237,360.00 (92 days) Density of P o l i c e Coverage 12 Miles/Square Mile Number of Transactions/Constable 10 To t a l Number of Transactions 480 Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto Subtotal 100 500 400 1000 16 33 81 130 16% 7% 20% 13% Program Totals 120 Constables 30 Vehicles $6,450.00 per diem $593,400.00 (92 days) (non-additive) Robbery Breaking and Entering Theft from Auto T o t a l 100 500 400 1000 52 208 111 371 52% 42% 28% 37% Note: Cost per Constable per diem i s assumed to be $50.00 Cost per Vehicle per diem i s assumed to be $15.00 188 F i r s t of a l l he notices that i n s p i t e of a further loss of 14 constables and 4 vehicles, the c i t i z e n complaint function i s just meeting i t s operating 0 b j e c t : L v e s > although the clearance rate for robbery has dropped again, t h i s time from 67 per cent i n the second quarter to 52 per cent i n the t h i r d quarter of the year. The Inspector also notices that as a res u l t of a further 10 additional constables and 2 additional vehicles, the in v e s t i g a t i o n function i s meeting i t s operating objectives exactly, and the clearance rate for breaking and entering has r i s e n from 38 per cent i n the second quarter to 42 per cent i n the t h i r d quarter of 1974. Furthermore, he observes that as a res u l t of a further 4 additional constables and 2 additional vehicles, the preventive patrol function i s meeting i t s operating objectives precisely, and the clearance rate for theft from auto has risen from 27 per cent i n the second quarter to 28 per cent i n the t h i r d quarter of the year. And, f i n a l l y , he concludes that as a result of the o v e r a l l s h i f t i n police resources from the c i t i z e n complaint function to the investigation and preventive p a t r o l functions, the average clearance rate for a l l crimes reported i n his d i s t r i c t has r i s e n from 35 per cent i n the f i r s t quarter to 37 per cent i n the t h i r d quarter of the year. Thus, without increasing the t o t a l cost of his operation, the Inspector has increased the number of crimes cleared i n P o l i c e D i s t r i c t 1 from 348 cases i n the f i r s t quarter to 371 cases i n the t h i r d quarter, an increase of 23 cases per quarter. The question may be asked, how did the Inspector know what set of operating objectives was necessary i n order to achieve his goal, or how did he know what s h i f t i n police resources was necessary to a t t a i n these objectives? The answer i s that the performance accounts w i l l ultimately provide police with the raw data from which a mathematical model of the police organization, the 189 community and the in t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between, them can be constructed. This model w i l l have considerable value i n predicting i n advance the outcome of a proposed set of operating objectives or a proposed s h i f t i n resources. Thus, these decisions w i l l no longer be based only upon personal judgment and i n t u i t i o n , but also upon the predicted outcome of these decisions by the models. . In summary, the Inspector has achieved his stated goal by s h i f t i n g police resources from one function to another without increasing the t o t a l cost of resources allocated to the Program. Furthermore, because of the per-' formance accounts he was able to ascertain the effect of these resource s h i f t s i n advance and, as a r e s u l t , confirm that his i n t u i t i v e decision would have the desired r e s u l t s . 7.5 Concluding Remarks The example used i n this chapter contains three police functions, not only one as i n previous examples. The juxtaposition of three functions i n the accounts brings to the surface more than ever before the existance of a complex network of inte r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the entries. This chapter concludes the development of consolidated performance accounts which was begun i n Chapter 5. The purpose of these chapters was to i l l u s t r a t e the p r a c t i c a l application of the concepts developed i n the e a r l i e r chapters to the problems of planning the delivery of police services to a community. The f i n a l chapter which follows provides a general summary of the thesis and a f i n a l statement of conclusions. t90 CHAPTER 8 GENERAL SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS One of the p r i n c i p a l methods of improving the quality of l i f e i n c i t i e s has been the provision of various kinds of community services, such as p o l i c e , recreation, education, health, and personal and family counselling. The delivery of such services to the community raises the need for some accurate method of monitoring and evaluating the e f f i c i e n c y and effectiveness of these services i n addressing the problems and meeting the needs which they were designed to ef f e c t . In this context, the purpose of the thesis was to develop a method for evaluating.and monitoring community services that could be applied to any service i n any community. As a vehicle for developing t h i s method of evaluation, the Vancouver Police Department was chosen because the police service i s perhaps the most essential and most costly community service provided by municipal government i n Canada today. In order to achieve i t s purpose, the thesis i d e n t i f i e d major police functions and assigned them to the police goals they were capable of e f f e c t i n g . The functions grouped under police goals were then referred to as programs, such as the Public Safety Program, the Crime Prevention Program and the Apprehension and Recovery Program. 191 The programs were described by three performance accounts, ca l l e d the input, output and impact accounts. The Input Account described the police resources allocated to a program. The Output Account described the productivity of these resources i n carrying out police functions assigned to each program. And, the Impact Account described the effectiveness of these resources.in bringing about the desired improvement i n the quality of l i f e . , i n other words, the goals of the program. One important step which remains to be taken i n the development of police performance accounts i s the relationship between the program accounts when considered together. One c r i t i c a l factor which must be examined i s the danger of sub-optimization. This refers to when the goals of one police ; program are being met at the expense of not achieving, or "achieving to a lesser degree, the goals of another police program. When t h i s occurs, and i t can only occur when the goals of two programs are i n c o n f l i c t , a decision has to be made as to which set of goals has the higher p r i o r i t y i n terms of the global goals of the organization and the community which i t serves. In order to i l l u s t r a t e t h i s potential problem, l e t us examine the c i t i z e n complaint function as i t relates to both the Public Safety Program and the Apprehension and Recovery Program. To maximize goal attainment for the Apprehension and Recovery Program, the Inspector i n charge of Police D i s t r i c t 1 shifted considerable resources from the c i t i z e n complaint function to the investigation and preventive p a t r o l functions. In the end, th i s s h i f t of resources acted to increase the o v e r a l l 192 clearance rate of the Apprehension and Recovery Program.. However, i n terms of the Public Safety Program whose goals are also supported by the c i t i z e n complaint function, the effect of this transfer of resources resulted i n a s i g n i f i c a n t increase in. response time, thereby reducing the degree to which the goals of the Public Safety Program were being met. In order to tackle t h i s problem, the Inspector i n Police D i s t r i c t 1 must determine the p r i o r i t i e s i n his d i s t r i c t between the goals of the Apprehension and Recovery Program arid the goals of the Public Safety Program. This problem of sub-optimization can -only be resolved by determining the appropriate trade-offs between the goals of competing programs. This use of performance accounts i s a matter which must be addressed i n any future examination of evaluation procedures. F i n a l l y , i t became apparent during the study that the raw data contained i n the accounts would over a period of time enable the construction of a mathematical model of the police organization, the community, and the i n t e r -relationship between them. This model would have considerable predictive power i n anticipating the outcome of proposed a l l o c a t i v e decisions i n advance of t h e i r actually being undertaken. This would therefore provide planners and managers of police services with a means of evaluating the effectiveness of proposed changes i n resource a l l o c a t i o n and operating objectives before the changes are actually made. I t would therefore provide a t o o l with which to determine the most effec t i v e a l l o c a t i o n of resources and the most complementary set of operating.objectives consistent with current police goals p r i o r to implementation. 193 BIBLIOGRAPHY Akman, D.D. and Normandeau, A. "Towards the Measurement of Criminality in Canada", Acta Criminologica, Vol. 1, 1968, pp. 135-260. Akman, D.D. and Normandeau, A. "Towards the Measurement of Crime and Delinquency in England", The Criminal Law Review, October 1968. Anderson, J.G. "Casual Models and Social Indicators: Toward the Development of Social Systems Models", American Sociological Review, Vol. 38, No.3, June 1973. pp. 285-301. Bator, F.M. 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