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Telecommunications and urban development McDonald, Donald Ross 1974

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TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT by Donald Ross McDonald B.A., Simon Fraser University, 1969 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n an Int e r d i s c i p l i n a r y Program i n Urban Studies We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA Jan. ^9%~ In presenting th i s thesis in pa r t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary shal l make it f ree ly ava i l ab le for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of th is thes is for scho lar ly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representat ives. It is understood that copying or pub l i ca t ion of th is thes is fo r f inanc ia l gain sha l l not be allowed without my writ ten permission. Department of UffB^ S T O D l E ^ The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date . i t f , (Q7^ i A B S T R A C T T h i s t h e s i s i s b r o a d l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f c o m -m u n i c a t i o n s t o u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t . I t s p e c i f i c a l l y d e v e l o p s a c o m m u n i c a t i o n s p e r s p e c t i v e o n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e i n t h e V a n c o u v e r , B . C . , m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a b y e x a m i n a t i o n o f o n e c o m m u n i c a t i o n v a r i a b l e , t e l e p h o n e t r a f f i c . O r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n c a l l i n g d a t a a r e u s e d t o i d e n t i f y c o m m u n i c a t i o n n e t w o r k s , s u g g e s t f u n c t i o n a l a s s o c i a t i o n s , a n d r e l a t e s o c i a l a r e a s t r u c t u r e t o c o m m u n i c a t i v e ( i n t e r a c t i v e ) b e h a v i o u r . A f u r t h e r p u r p o s e i s t o e m p l o y t h e a b o v e f i n d i n g s i n d e v e l o p i n g s u g g e s t i o n s a s t o p o s s i b l e i m p o r t s o f f u t u r e c o m m u n i c a t i o n t e c h n o l o g i e s . F o r t h e f i r s t t h r e e c h a p t e r s , t h e m o d e , i . e . t e l e p h o n e h a r d w a r e , i s h e l d c o n s t a n t , i n t h e f o u r t h c h a p t e r t h e h a r d w a r e i s c o n s i d e r e d a s a v a r i a b l e . i i A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S I a m d e e p l y i n d e b t e d t o D r . R . F . K e l l y w h o e n c o u r a g e d a n d s u p e r v i s e d t h e w r i t i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s . D r . W . H a r d w i c k a n d D r . R . A b l e r w e r e a l s o o f i n v a l u a b l e a s s i s t a n c e , a n d I a m g r a t e f u l . T h a n k y o u t o M s . C a m p b e l l f o r w o r k o n t h e g r a p h i c s a n d M r . K e r r f o r h e l p w i t h t h e u p s a n d d o w n s o f t h e e f f o r t . T h e B . C . T e l e p h o n e C o m p a n y p r o v i d e d a c c e s s t o d a t a o n w h i c h t h e t h e s i s i s b a s e d . A n d t h a n k y o u t o m y p a r e n t s f o r i n c r e d i b l e p a t i e n c e . i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Chapter I Preliminary Analysis 1 Telephone Data 1 Previous studies using telephone data 3 Telephone data base for G.V.R.D. 4 Conceptual Concept 6 Conceptual Background 9 Previous Studies of Vancouver spatial structure 11 Preliminary Graph Theory interpretation 12 Framework of Present Study 14 Chapter II Salient Communication Flows 17 Definition of Transactions 17 The Concept of Salience 18 Transactional Flow Analysis 20 Relative Acceptance Index as a Measure of Salience 21 Discussion of Results 22 Chapter III The Relationship of Social Structure and Communicative (interactive) 25 Behaviour Social area analysis 25 Criticisms of Social Area Analysis 27 i v Page Literature r e l a t i n g Conimunications and Social Structure 29 Social Area Analysis i n Vancouver 21 Discussion of the Results 32 Chapter IV Future Implication of Teletechnology 3 5 . Telecommunication Technology 35 Teletechnology and Urban Structure 49 Communication/Transportation Substitution 43 Summary and Conclusions 4g Bibliography 50 V LIST OF TABLES Table Page I Basic Data Matrix of Origin-Destination Volumes for Twenty-Two Telephone Exchange Areas 11 A II Expected Values 21 A III Table of Differences 21 B IV Salient Values 21 C V Absolute ranking for long-distance Calling (in number of messages) for intra-provincial and out-of-province data for the week ending July 10, 1971 33 A VI Relative ranking for long-distance calling (in number of messages) for intra-provincial and out-of-province data for the week ending July 10, 1971. (Messages are divided by the number of terminal connections or telephones for each exchange area) 33 B VII Absolute and Relative Ranking for originating flow volumes by area exchange 33 C v i LIST OP FIGURES Generalized framework for geographical analysis Destination of largest outflow volumes Origin of largest inflow volumes Salient two-way flows for RA. .25 and D.. 150 Salient one-way flow for RA .25 and D.. 150 Salient two-way flows for RA .10 and D. . 150 Salient one-way flows for RA .10 and D.. 150 Salient one-way flows for RA 1.0 and D.. 150 Salient flows on socio-economic areas ti it ti 11 11 it it it n it it it Growth of C.A.T.V. Industry I C H A P T E R I la The f i r s t chapters of this paper are broadly concerned with two questions: 1. Can intra-metropolitan, origin-destination telephone data be used as a comprehensive indicator of urban spatial relations — can such a data base be used to produce a skeleton of urban structure? 2. If the answer to 1 above proves positive, what i s the spatial structure of Vancouver, B.C., as revealed by these telecommunication relationships. Thus, the f i r s t question is methodological and the second substantive. Telephone Data There are many measures of metropolitan structure and telephone calls represent only one of these. The contention i s , however, that tele-phone calls do represent several important characteristics which f a c i l i t a t e a unique expression of urban structure. Some points which describe the nature of telephone calls are useful for an understanding of the data used. 1. Ubiquity - telephone ownership i s above 90% of households and most everyone has access to phones. 2. Speed - This is a very important facet and determined much of i t s use. 3. Two-way - Such rapid two-way communication 2 plays an obviously important role i n so c i a l and soc i e t a l organization. 4. Cost - Phone c a l l s are very inexpensive compared to other forms of travel and communication, and the cost i s f a l l i n g . 5. Privacy - Most phones have exclusive connections and i t i s against the law to 'tap 1. 6. Routing - Phones are r e l a t i v e l y free from physical barriers and have highly f l e x i b l e routing. 7. Interconnections - New technological devices are providing for multiple use of telecommunication channels. The above points summarize the distinguishing media characteristics of phone c a l l s and suggest some relationship between telephone c a l l s and the t o t a l c i r c u l a t i o n of information. Two other considerations are important. The content of c a l l s d i f f e r s i n importance depending on whatever c r i t e r i a are established. For the purpose of this study, however, there i s no p r a c t i c a l method to account for t h i s . The assumption i s made that the proportion of business to s o c i a l c a l l s to each point i s the same for each area. This i s not s t r i c t l y accurate, of course, and a closer estimation can be obtained from the portion of business connections compared to private connections for any one area or level of aggregation. 3 Secondly, the length of c a l l s must be assumed to be equal. A measure of three minutes per c a l l i s used and t h i s i s standardized by North American telephone companies. Previous Studies Using Telephone Data There have been many s p a t i a l and functional analyses of regions by using telephone data as a metric measure. Green (1955) used such data to establish a hinterland boundary between New York City and Boston. Siddal (1957) used the frequency of c a l l s to show that towns i n Alaska were mose closely connected to Seattle than to other Alaskan towns. Schroeder (1958) used long distance c a l l i n g to determine the hinterland of Chicago. MacKay (1958), comparing a distance decay function with phone c a l l i n g i n Eastern Canada, established interaction boundaries. He i d e n t i f i e d barriers exerted by p o l i t i c a l and l i n g u i s t i c boundaries and found that for messages from a Quebec c i t y ... English speaking c i t i e s behave as i f they were f i v e to ten times as far away from Quebec c i t i e s of the same size and separation, and those i n the U.S.A. as i f they were f i f t y times distant. Using a graph interpretation of c a l l s i n Washington State, Nystuen and Dacey (1967) derived a hierarchy of functional regions highly correlated to other measures of regional analysis. A factor analysis of telephone t r a f f i c i n Denmark was used by I l l e r i s and Pedersen (1968) to indicate regional centres and influence zones. They found the i r results to compare favorably with several other methods used i n previous studies of c e n t r a l i t y . ;lkle and Hammer (1957) correlated telephone and 4 a i r l i n e t r a f f i c to distance and "propensity to i n t e r a c t " . F i n a l l y , Simmons (1970) found phone c a l l s , automobile movement and truck flows a l l c l o s e l y related as measures of i n t e r a c t i o n of Canadian c i t i e s . Telephone Data Base f o r G.V.R.D. The studies previously mentioned that use telecommunication tend to support the f i r s t thesis of t h i s paper — that telephone data can i be used meaningfully i n urban analysis. None of the previous e f f o r t s , however, were s p e c i f i c a l l y concerned with intra-metropolitan studies. Towards t h i s end, telephone data, i n the form of o r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n volumes, were obtained f o r the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t (G.V.R.D.) Telephone Company. This data represents telephone c a l l i n g i n twenty-two exchange areas which together comprise the geographical area of the G.V.R.D. (See Table I ) . I t i s displayed i n the K x K matrix of Table I. Each column and row i s numbered and l a b e l l e d with a telephone exchange area p r e f i x which corresponds to the f i r s t three d i g i t s of actual telephone numbers. The rows represent or i g i n s and the columns destinations, and the diagonal elements intra-zone c a l l s . For example, entry 4:7 reports the c a l l s that the Castle exchange area makes to the Fa i r f a x exchange area. And. the entry 4:4 represents the flow within the Castle exchange i t s e l f . This measure i s i n the form of milliseconds or C C S . The time period 5 for each measure i s the peak t r a f f i c hour for a morning i n May 1968. Thus c e l l entry 4:7 means that the Castle Exchange (CAS) made c a l l s to the Fairfax Exchange (FAI) during that hour t o t a l l i n g 55,100 seconds. The standard length of telephone conversations, as estab-lished by B.C. Tel i s three minutes. Thus the entry could also read as approximately 305 c a l l s . Since the o r i g i n a l data i s i n the form of C C S . t h i s measure was retained to minimize the loss of information i n the data. Two problems were encountered i n assembling the flow volumes. Not a l l G.V.R.D. exchanges are d i r e c t l y connected, many go through trunking routes. An example i s the North Shore, where c a l l s from North Vancouver (NOR) and West Vancouver (WVN) to Ladner (LAD) and i Beach Grove (BGR) are routed through the Mutual (MU) or downtown exchange. The o r i g i n a l data sources show a certain volume from WVN and from NOR entering the Mutual tandem and BGR and LAD receiving a certain volume (b) and (e) respectively. I t i s then necessary to s t a t i s t i c a l l y calculate the s p e c i f i c origin-destination volumes. This was achieved by taking the percentage volume received by BGR and LAD b -e ( k _ e ]~ ~ ) and multiplying i t by volume originating from WVN and NOR. The difference i s then distributed. I t i s the same method used by the B.C. Telephone Company. By putting actual tracers i n the trunk l i n e s , they have found i t to be surprisingly accurate. 6 The other problem involves t o l l - c a l l i n g . Forty-nine entries of a total 484 require a minimum t o l l charge of approximately thirty-five cents per three minutes. This undoubtedly exerts a rather strong bias on the volume of calling but is not accounted for in this study. The di f f i c u l t y of any accurate weighting and the comparatively small number of exchanges affected rendered adjust-ments unnecessary. Conceptual Context It is recognized that there are many measures of urban structure. Traditional studies usually describe land use patterns to summarize the distribution of ac t i v i t i e s , population and growth. The major elements are the C.B.D. and related commercial components: zones of manufacturing and residential d i s t r i c t s . Generally, there are three classic formulations: 1. The concentric zone theory of Burgess (1929) which employs notion of concentric zones radially expanding from a core. 2. Hoyt's (1939) residential sector theory which assumes that wedges or sectors of different rent levels exist in a highly differentiated pattern around the C.B.D. 3. The multiple-nuclei model formulated by Harris and Ulman (1945), which is a modification of the above two models. It assumes growth around several nuclei rather than around a single core. 7 Though these concepts provide valuable general insights into urban structure, their present value has been considerably eroded by growth processes of the last few decades. A population boom, rising incomes, changing socio-economic distributions and rapid technological development are some of the factors distorting the classical views. (Hoyt, 1971) Chapin (1971) and Hagget (1968) have summarized some of the more recent theories of urban growth and structure. They may be seen to exist on a conceptual continuum from system oriented to process oriented. (Rogers, 1971) The system or micro approach "focuses on a particular site within an overall pattern and is concerned with the forces which determine the activity which w i l l be carried on at that location". (Rogers, 1971) The process or micro approach instead examines a particular activity and analyses the behaviour of decision units. The work of Chapin and Weiss (1968) is representative of the latter, and Lowry's (1964) model building the former. Between these two frameworks and not mutually exclusive of either are several other modelling attempts. These include the economic models of Wingo (1968), communication model of Meier (1962), interaction model of Weber (1964), the conceptual system model of Lynch and Rodwin (1962), the accessibility model of Guttenberg (1964), Hagget's (1968) functional regional models, and Berry's (1969) matrix formulations. Thus the diversity of approaches to urban 8 structure i s readily seen. This d i v e r s i t y , however, has a common though often i m p l i c i t focus, the notion of a c i t y as a communication system. The theory building of Meier (1962) and Weber (1964) are most representative of a communication emphasis. Such an approach focuses attention on the processes of human interaction. I t i s inte r a c t i o n , not place; communication, not land use which i s the essence of l i f e . (Simmons, 1969; Wilmoth, 1970; Deutsch, 1961; Friedman, 1968; Baran and Greenberg, 1967; Fleischer, 1962). Within this context, the p a r t i c u l a r concern here i s to map the inter-metropolitan s p a t i a l structure of the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t . The term " s p a t i a l " as compared to " a s p a t i a l " relates the pattern i n which culture, a c t i v i t i e s , people and physical objects are distributed i n space (Foley, 1964) and, i n this instance how they are revealed through an analysis of a telecommunication variable. This s p a t i a l patterning has two aspects. The formal i s a s t a t i c snapshot view of a metropolitan pattern at any one point i n time. (Foley, 1964) The processual i s the ongoing functional relations of the metropolitan communities. Within t h i s conceptualization Webber (1964) suggested analysis of both these aspects of a s p a t i a l l y structured process. The structural or formal aspect has three components — within-place a c t i v i t i e s (employment, residence, etc.) and between-place a c t i v i t i e s (communications, transportation) and 9 adapted spaces (use of space for within-place a c t i v i t i e s ) . The functional aspect i s defined by the functional interdependence expressed as interactions. (Echenique, 1969) Generalizing these ideas s l i g h t l y , Cripps (1969) has even suggested that the term urban structure i s somewhat of a misnomer. Instead he finds ... the concepts of adapted space and communication channels to be the most general groupings of st r u c t u r a l elements i n present theory, and also the f i r s t distinguished categories for shaping urban structure i n the post-Industrial ages. Communication, however, even a single type such as the telephone, i s d i f f i c u l t to categorize. Though i t does l i n k a c t i v i t i e s i t can also be said to separate them. Further, i t can be considered as an a c t i v i t y i n i t s e l f , both between and within place, and i t s physical channels can be seen as adapted spaces. Conceptual Background To begin t h i s study, the metropolitan area i s conceptualized as an i s o t r o p i c communications space. A l l points are assumed to be connected perfectly with no d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n from place to place, or i n one direction or another. (Nystuen, 1968) Also there i s assumed to be no f r i c t i o n of distance, a l l points are connected, equally and instantaneously. From t h i s abstracted concept three independent variables are derived from actual telephone communication: 1. a d i r e c t i o n a l orientation of phone t r a f f i c , .10 2. a distance of t r a f f i c origin and destination, and 3. a connectivity or volume of c a l l s . These variables in combination, are taken to define the communication network of the Greater Vancouver Regional District (G.V.R.D.). Since this conceptualization is fundamentally geographical, Soja's (1969) generalized framework for spatial analysis provides a useful procedural referrent. It is represented in the following diagram: Locational interaction Spatial Structure Functional Region Spatial Analysis Micro-spatial behaviour Spatial Macro-spatial Behavioural System behaviour Implications Locations attributes Areal Association Formal Region Areal Analysis Figure 1 Framework for Geographical Analysis (Soja, 1969) The upper level of the diagram represents a fundamentally spatial approach which involves stress on interaction between points (or locations in space) and the organization of space into functional or nodal regions. The lower level focuses upon the attributes of places, the areal association of these attributes and the organization of areas into formal regions. In the centre, the spatial system indicates an integrative focus, and behavioural implications are positioned there 11 to suggest a potential for combining both areal and spatial analysis (formal and functional). Within this framework, telecommunications constitute a pattern of human activity. Sampling telephone calls expresses relationships of people localized at points. Communications then are f i r s t associated with people and secondly with location, though i n i t i a l emphasis in this study is on the latter aspect. Previous Studies of Vancouver Spatial Structure There have been several studies of different aspects of the spatial structure of the Vancouver region. Wolforth (1965) has done an analysis of residential location and place of work. He found that people employed in the Central Business District (C.B.D.) have more dispersed residences than those employed elsewhere, and that this distribution has a westward bias for those employed in the western section of the core area and an eastward basis for those employed in the eastern section. This is structurally reflected in the radially segregated socio-economic patterns of residence for the metropolitan area. Further, he found that peripherally located work places served more clustered residential areas. Heichman (1969) used t r a f f i c volumes to compare the core area journey to work with the peripheral journeys to work. He found that the proportion of central workers per residential area drops with the distance from the core. 12 Hardwick and Leigh (1965) examined the s p a t i a l organization of intra-metropolitan r e t a i l trade. For a somewhat simi l a r suggestion as Wolforth's but using different data bases they proposed that the C.B.D. shopping areas are segregated and cater to d i s t i n c t r e s i d e n t i a l areas. More detailed analysis led to the conclusion that, i n terms of r e t a i l trade, the metropolitan area was not only s p a t i a l l y segregated s e c t o r a l l y , but more generally consisted of two rings. The inner ring has a f i v e mile radius where t r i p generation i s not a function of distance but rather i s concentrated i n d i f f e r e n t areas according to the socio-economic appeal of the stores and the areal l o c a l i z a t i o n of socio-economic groups. (Hardwick, Leigh, 1965) F i n a l l y , Hardwick (1971) has synthesized these and other studies into what i s termed a "core-ring" model. This consists of two concentric rings. The inner ring i s r a d i a l l y organized and focuses on the central core or C.B.D. The outer ri n g i s circumferentially organized through a series of interconnected communities and workplaces. The importance of this model i s that rather than viewing the metropolitan area as one large interacting system, i t delineates two systems that interact more within each other than between each other. Preliminary Graph Theory Interpretation The i n i t i a l analysis df this data consists of a graph theory i n t e r -pretation of nodal regions developed by Nystuen and Dacey (1967). They 13 originally used i t to define the regional structure of the State of Washington using long distance telephone calling data. Their findings were i n general agreement with expectations and other studies of nodal structure. Here, the method i s applied to a much smaller area on the assumption that for the scale of the study, the same type of dynamics are operative at a city-region scale as a state region. (Berry, 1966; Nystuen and Dacey, 1967) Developed from theories of nodal regions and central place hierarchies (Berry, 1958), the technique recognizes that: . . . the direction of magnitude of flows associated with social processes are indicators of spatial order in the regional structure of urban society. Whether the flow i s local and the city's hinterland or regional and to the rank ordering of c i t i e s , the notion of central or nodal point i s dependent upon the levels of strongest association with the total flow. (Nystuen and Dacey, 1967, summarizing Berry and Gavisen, 1958; Ullman, 1948; Whittlesey, 1954) Thus by qualifying the degree of association between the exchange areas i n the G.V.R.D. i t should be possible to identify the networks of strongest association. These networks should outline the skeleton of urban organization. This skeleton i s mapped in Figure 2. Each telephone exchange area has been collapsed to a point. The largest outflow or nodal flow of every area i s mapped to i t s destination. These flows form the nodal structure of the region and display the functional association of the areas. F I G U R E 2 Page 13 A 14 In such a hierarchy of relations at least one point must be zero and i s called a terminal or dominant centre. Each area i s ranked according to it s total inflow or messages. (See Figure 3) The dominant centre i s one whose nodal flow is to a "smaller" order centre. Also, i f area "a" i s subordinate to area "b" and "b" is subordinate to "c", then "a" i s subordinate to "c". Framework of Present Study The results of a preliminary analysis form a framework for the present study. On the basis of previously mentioned studies, i t was expected that the spatial structure of Vancouver would resemble more the core-ring model than the more classical constructs. In accord with this hypothesis i t was further expected that the influence of the C.B.D. as measured by degree of interaction would decline with distance, and the percent of intra volume compared with total communication would generally be greater i n the peripheral areas. Also, i f the C.B.D. i s revealed as the central place of the region i t should also be the transaction maximizing node, and w i l l receive more calls than i t originates. (Meier, 1961) If the f i r s t contention is accurate, i t can be taken as evidence that telephone data in the form of intra-metropolitan origin-destination volumes can be validly used as a gross measure of spatial FIGURE 3 Page M A 15 relations by accurately delineating a skeleton of the G.V.R.D.'s spatial structure. The results for the Greater Vancouver Regional District are displayed in Figure 2. It shows the nodal region as clearly dominated by the Mutual exchange area or C.B.D. These results are expected since Vancouver has traditionally been C.B.D. oriented. The central core has the highest population density, highest t r a f f i c counts, most commercial floor space and largest workforce. The results also tend to reinforce Hardwick's (1971) view of "core-ring" model of urban structure. The Lakeview or New West-minster exchange is seen as a subcentre in the hierarchy, for Port Coquitlam or Whalley, Newton and White Rock. Also, though this data is not included in the original matrix, i t is the destination of the largest outflow from Haney, Cloverdale, and Langley. Further the Richmond-Steveston area and Beach Grove-Ladner area suggest some independence. These are a l l peripheral areas (beyond ten miles of the C.B.D.) and are interacting in absolute terms, more among themselves than with the C.B.D. or any other part of the metropolitan area. This i s further evidenced by a graph of the origin of the largest outflow. (See Figure 3) Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, and Whalley 16 a l l receive the largest volume of messages from New Westminster. Ladner and Beach Grove appear as comparatively independent of the C.B.D. and the core influence i s even more dispersed within the inner ring or metropolitan area proper. The "core-ring" contention then, as revealed by observed communication patterns, appears as the emergent i f not existent s p a t i a l structure of the G.V.R.D. Also the C.B.D. i s the transaction maximizing node. The following analysis proceeds within t h i s framework. Chapter two defines and examines sa l i e n t transaction flows. This i s a measure of "greater than expected" intercommunication flows and i s i n t e r -preted as an indication of s o c i a l integration or lack thereof. Chapter three explores the relationship of s o c i a l structure and communicative (interactive) behaviour. I t integrates the results of Chapter two with conventional s o c i a l area analysis to examine some behavioural assumptions. Chapter four suggests general implications of future teletechnology f o r patterns of urban structure, whereas i n the previous chapters the hardware element was held constant, i n this chapter, the analysis i s taken as fix e d and the hardware varied. »7 C H A P T E R I I 17a-This chapter i s concerned with a more refined analysis of the basic data matrix. Through a type of flow analysis the communication patterns of the G.V.M.D. are interpreted i n terms of s o c i a l integration. This i s done by i d e n t i f y i n g the intercommunication flow, of unexpectedly large volumes. De f i n i t i o n of Transactions Meier (1962) established that an i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of communications, knowledge and controls i s highly correlated with the growth of c i t i e s . "The bonds that t i e individuals to a c i t y seem to result from the conservation and accumulation of some concomitant of these factors". (Meier, 1962) On evaluating these bonds or relations the basic unit of analysis i s the transaction. Broadly defined, a transaction implies exchanges between individuals or groups i n society. I t i s an event involving at least the transfer of information, but may also include goods. For the purpose of t h i s study, transactions are point to point telephone conversations involving an exchange of information between participants. This measure of multi-functional relationships i s believed to be an accurate indicator of such associations at a regional l e v e l of analysis. Though only a single index, i n d i v i d u a l telephone usage i s multipurpose. Further, i t has the advantage over the use of a series of indices, of eliminating the problem of weighing i n d i v i d u a l contributions of the many indices. Several 18 authors have concluded that telephone flows are one of the best single indices of a l l functional contacts. (Nystuen and Dacey, 1971; Hammer and I k l e , 1957) On the basis of the above, telephone t r a f f i c may be used to indicate the flow and concentration of information within the urban systems. Meier (1962) has contended that wherever such flows are concentrated, behaviour i s more ordered and predictable. Information here refers to a capacity to select from an ensemble of alternatives, be they s o c i a l or economic, etc. Such information involves knowledge of an environment and i s related to a potential for control. Concentrated flows of information then, indicate a certain l e v e l of mutual aware-ness among participants. Such levels of mutual awareness may be taken as indicators of at least potential s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l integration. Thus units of society experiencing dense inter-communication volumes are the most l i k e l y to participate i n c o l l e c t i v e action to promote perceived mutual interests. (Deutsch, 1964) The Concept of Salience Within this framework i t should be possible to i d e n t i f y communities i n terms of the probability of mutual transactions between individuals since t h e i r communications would be more frequent or important within these communities than within any others. (Deutsch, 1964) Such relationships are termed s a l i e n t , and depend on the amount of time and resources used. 19 "The study of the quantitative densities of transactions (salience) i s the f i r s t step towards estimating the degree to which people are connected with one another". (Deutsch, 1964) In developing the concept of salience certain assumptions must be explicated.* Information exchanges may be of a mutually rewarding or mutually depriving nature. A telephone c a l l to purchase goods on sale would be an example of the former and a c a l l to complain of public services, an example of negative relationship. Such a normative evaluation of information content i s extremely d i f f i c u l t i n any s i t u a t i o n and with the present data, impossible. I t i s therefore assumed that the majority of the telephone c a l l i n g i s of a mutually rewarding nature. Other assumptions are summarized by Soja (1969) as follows: 1. The greater the volume of flow between areas the greater the salience. 2. Salience indicates mutual awareness. 3. The greater the salience (mutually rewarding), the greater the l i k e l i h o o d of co-operation and integration. 4. An integrated t e r r i t o r i a l community i s maintained by a complex pattern of information exchange which hinges upon a connected network of transaction flows. 5. Existing and potential levels of integration between areas w i l l be reflected i n mapping of salient flows. This approach s h i f t s the focus from an examination of demographic characteristics to amore fundamental analysis of transaction flows. 20 Transactional Flow Analysis The i n i t i a l procedure in operationalizing the concept of salience involves a transactional flow analysis suggested by- Deutsch and Savage (1960). It is based on a n u l l hypothesis of origin-destination independence. This is a technique which removes gross size effects which occur because of the arbitrary nature of the spatial units of analysis or area exchanges, providing for the assumption that the specific characteristics of originating and receiving zones w i l l not affect the volume of t r a f f i c among them. . Goodman (1963) has provided a mathematical summary of the major calculations and i t i s outlined below. Using the original K x K data matrix (page ), the nu l l hypothesis states that the probability P^j that an observation w i l l f a l l in c e l l aij i s : p i j = pi°.j f o r 1 = 1» 2 k  3 = 1, 2, k where P±>0, Q^O k k E Pi = 1 E Qi = 1 i-1 j-1 And the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters P^ and Q.. are ai/n and aij/n respectively, where 'n' is the total volume of the table. Essentially then this operation is a simple probability 21 d i s t r i b u t i o n which generates a new matrix of "expected values" 2 (Table I I ) . Since can be estimated by a i . a i j / n , the estimated expected value of c e l l " a i j " i s A i j = ai.a.j./n where: k a i = £ a i j . 1=1 Relative Acceptance Index as a Measure of Salience A further operation i s required to determine how w e l l t h i s new data f i t the n u l l model and whether flows can be explained simply by the theoretical tendency of P , of area ' i ' to originate c a l l s , and the theoretical tendency of Q„ of area ' j ' to receive c a l l s as generated above. In order to do t h i s a matrix of differences i s calculated for each of the o r i g i n a l K x K entries from the formula D„ = a i j - A ^ i j (see Table I I I ) . D.. i s the difference i n value between the actual observed entries, ' a i j ' and the estimated expected entries A ^ i j . From th i s matrix a r e l a t i v e acceptance index (R.A.) as suggested by Soja (1969) i s calculated where: RA^ = ( a i j - A ^ i j ) / A ^ i j . I t i s this measure which indicates s a l i e n t relationships by ide n t i f y i n g zones with greater than expected densities of transactions. (See Table IV) In deriving the actual values for the R.A. index, two threshold values are a r b i t r a r i l y established. In the f i r s t instance a minimum absolute deviation was set at D„ - a i j - A ^ i j - 150. This was done to correct the tendency for the R.A. index to exaggerate values of small exchanges. For example, where a i j = 4, and A ^ i j = 3, RA^j = .66, TABLE II EXPECTED VALUES 1 2 7 4 . 1 4 2 9 . 2 3 0 . ~ 1 6 6 " . 2 0 2 1 . 4 3 9 4 . 4 7 4 . 5 8 2 . 1 7 5 6 . 6 0 3 . 5 0 3 . 9 1 8 . 1 2 8 8 . 1 5 9 8 . ° 6 9 . 1 7 9 . 3 5 0 . 3 6 7 . 1 4 7 4 . 8 2 5 . 1 9 3 5 . 1 9 0 6 . Page 21 A _EXPECTED_VAL.UE.S 1 5 1 2 . 1 6 9 7 . 1 9 8 . 2 4 0 0 . 5 6 3 . 6 9 1 . 2 7 3 . 5 2 1 6 . 2 0 8 5 . 7 1 6 . 5 9 7 . 1 0 8 9 . 1 5 2 9 . 1 8 9 7 . 1 1 5 0 . 2 1 2 . 4 1 5 . 4 3 6 . 1 7 5 0 . 9 8 0 . 2 2 9 7 . 2 2 6 2 . EXPECTEO VALUES 2 5 2 . 2 8 3 . 3 3 . 4 0 0 . 9 4 . 1 1 5 . 4 5 . 8 6 9 . 3 4 7 . _ r L 5 5 . 3 1 6 . 1 9 2 . 3 5 . 6 9 . 7 3 . 2 9 2 . 1 6 3 . 3 8 3 . 3 7 7 . EXPECTED VALUES 6 8 8 . 7 7 2 . _ _ 9 0 . 1 0 9 1 . 2 5 6 . ' 3 1 4 . " 1 2 4 . 2 3 7 2 . 3 2 5 . 2 7 1 . 6 9 5 . 8 6 3 . 5 2 3 . 9 7 . 1 8 9 . 1 9 8 . 7 9 6 . 4 4 6 . 1 0 4 4 . J 0 2 9 . EXPECTED VALUES 1 3 1 0 . 1 4 7 C . 2 3 6 . 1 7 1 . 2 0 7 9 . 4 5 1 9 . 4 8 7 . 5 9 9 . 1 8 0 6 . 6 2 0 . 5 1 7 . 9 4 3 . 1 3 2 4 . 1 6 4 3 . 9 9 6 . 1 8 4 . 3 6 0 . 3 7 8 . 1 5 1 6 . 8 4 9 . 1 9 8 9 . 1 9 5 9 . EXPECTED VALUES 2 7 4 . 3 0 7 . 3 6 . 4 3 4 . 1 0 2 . 1 2 5 . 4 9 . 9 4 4 . 3 7 7 . 1 3 0 . 1 0 8 . 1 9 7 . 2 7 7 . 3 4 3 . 2 C 8 . 3 1 7 . 1 7 7 . 4 1 6. 4 1 1 . E X P E C T F D V A L U E S 1 5 4 5 . 1 7 3 4 . 2 7 8 . 7 3 1 . 1 5 6 2 . 2 0 2 . 2 4 5 2 . 5 3 3 1 . 6 1 0 . 1 9 3 8 . 5 7 5 . 7 r 7 . 2 1 3 0 . 1 1 1 3 . 1 1 7 5 . 2 1 7 . 4 2 4 . 4 4 6 . 1 7 8 8 . 1 0 0 1 . 2 3 4 7 . 2 3 1 2 . E X P E C T E D V A 1 UES 2 0 0 1 . 2 2 4 4 . 3 6 1 . 9 4 7 . 2 0 2 2 . 2 6 1 . 3 1 7 4 . 6 9 0 1 . 7 8 9 . 2 5 0 9 . 7 4 4 . 9 1 5 . 2 7 5 8 . 1 4 4 1 . 1 5 2 1 . 2 8 1 . 5 4 9 . 5 7 7 . 2 3 1 5 . 1 2 9 6 . 3 0 3 8 . 2 9 9 2 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 1 6 3 . , 1 8 3 . 2 1 . 6 1 . 2 5 ° . 7 5 . 5 6 3 . 2 2 5 . E X P E C T E D V A 1 U E S 1 9 1 6 . 2 1 4 9 . 3 4 5 , _ _ 2 5 0 . 3 0 4 0 . 6 6 0 9 . 7 1 3 . 3 7 6 . 2 6 4 1 , 9 0 6 . 7 5 6 . 1 " 3 7 . 2 4 0 3 . 1 4 5 6 . 2 2 1 7 . 1 2 4 1 . 2 9 1 0 . 2 8 6 6 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 4 2 ° 1 . 4 8 1 4 . 7 7 3 . 2 0 3 0 . 4 3 3 8 . 6 0 2 . 5 6 1 . 6 3 0 8 . 1 4 8 0 1 . 1 6 9 3 . 5 3 8 2 . 1 1 7 8 . 1 5 9 7 . 1 9 6 2 . 5 9 1 5 . 3 0 9 0 . 3 2 6 2 . 1 2 3 7 . 4 9 6 5 . 2 7 8 C 6 5 1 7 . 6 4 1 8 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 6 5 7 . 7 3 7 . 1 ) 3 . 3 6 . 1 " 4 3 . ' 2 2 6 7 . 2 4 5 . 3 0 0 . < > 0 6 . 3 1 1 . 2 5 9 . 4 7 3 . 6 6 4 . 8 2 4 . 5 0 0 . 9 2 . 1 8 0 . 1 8 9 . 9 9 8 . 9 8 3 . E X P E C T F D V A L U E S 1 6 8 4 . 1 8 9 0 . 3 0 4 . 7 9 7 . 1 7 0 3 . 2 2 " 1 . 2 6 7 3 . 5 8 1 0 . 6 6 4 . 21 1 3 . 6 2 7 . 7 7 0 . 2 3 2 2 . 1 2 1 3 . 1 2 8 0 . 2 3 6 . 4 6 2 . 4 3 6 . 1 9 4 9 . 1 0 9 1 . 2 5 5 3 . 2 5 1 9 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 3 4 0 . 3 8 1 . 6 1 . 4 4 . 5 3 9 . 1 1 7 2 . 1 2 6 . 1 5 5 . 4 6 8 . 1 6 1 . 1 3 4 . ? 4 5 . 3 4 3 . 4 2 6 . 2 5 8 . 4 8 . 9 3 . 3 9 3 . 2 2 0 . 5 1 6 . 5 0 3 . E X P E C T E D V A L U F S 9 3 9 . 1053. 1 6 9 . 1 2 3 . 1 4 8 9 . 3 2 3 8 . 3 4 ° . 4 2 9 . ] 2 9 4 . 4 4 4 . 3 7 0 . 6 7 6 . 11 7 7 . 7 1 4 . 1 3 2 . 2 5 8 . 2 7 1 . 1 0 8 6 . 6 0 8 . 1 4 2 5 . 1 4 0 4 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 2 0 6 3 . 2 3 2 5 . 3 7 3 . 9 7 8 . 2 " 9 1 . 2 7 0 . 3 2 8 1 . 7 1 3 3 . B i t . 2 5 9 4 . 7 7 0 . 9 4 5 . 2 6 5 1 . 1 4 8 9 . 1 5 7 2 . 2 9 0 . 5 6 3 . 5 9 6 . 2 3 9 3 . t 3 4 0 . 3 1 4 1 . 3 0 9 3 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 5 6 1 . 6 2 9 . 1 0 1 . 7 3 . 8 9 0 . 1 9 3 5 . 2 0 9 . 2 5 6 . 7 7 3 . 2 6 5 . 2 2 1 . 4 0 4 . 5 6 7 . 7 0 4 . ' 2 6 . 1 5 4 . 1 6 2 . 6 4 9 . 3 6 3 . 8 5 2 . 8 3 9 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 6 7 9 . 7 6 1 . 1 2 2 . 8 9 . 1 ( 7 7 . ? 3 4 1 . 2 5 3 . 3 1 0 . 036. 3 2 1 . 2 6 8 . 4 8 9 . 6 8 6 . 8 5 1 . ' 5 1 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 9 6 . 7 8 5 . 44.1 . 1 0 3 1 . 1 0 1 5 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 1 P 3 7 . 2 1 1 7 . 3 4 0 . 3 9 3 . 1 9 , | 3 . 2 4 7 . 2 9 9 4 . 6 5 0 9 . 7 4 4 . 2 3 6 7 . 7 0 2 . 8 6 3 . 2 6 0 1 . 1 3 5 0 . 1 4 3 4 . 2 6?. 5 1 3 . 5 4 4 . 2 1 8 3 . 1 2 2 2 . 2 8 6 6 . 2 8 2 2 . _ E X P E C T E O _ V A L U E S _ _ _ 9 2 4 . 1 0 3 6 . 1 6 6 . 1 2 1 . 1 4 6 6 . 3 1 8 6 . 3 4 4 . 4 2 ? . 1 2 7 ? . 4 3 7 . 3 6 4 . 6 6 5 . 2 5 4 . 2 6 6 . 1 0 6 9 . 5 9 8 . 1 4 0 3 . 1 3 3 2 . E X P E C T E D V A L U E S 1 0 1 " . 1 1 3 4 . 1 3 2 . 3 7 6 . 4 6 2 . 3 4 . 3 5 . 1 3 9 3 . 1 2 6 7 . 7 6 8 . 2 7 7 . 2 9 1 . 6 5 5 . 1 51 1 . E X P E C T E D V A L U F S 3 3 4 . 4 3 1 . 6 ° . 5 0 . 61 1 3 2 6 . 1 4 3 . 1 7 6 . 5 3 6 . 4 R 2 . 2 9 2 . 4 4 5 . 2 4 9 . TABLE III DIFFERENCES 5 4 0 4 . - i n . -102. DIFFERENCES - I I ! . -? T?.. 01 FF ER ENOFS DIFFERENCES - 4 9 6 . DIFFER FNCES I . - 9 1 . - 2 3 2 . DIFFFRCNCFS DIFFERENCES - 1 0 4 . -1 35 . D I F F E R FMr.F.S 1 1 6 . - 1 5 1 . - 2 7 5 . DI FFEP FNCES - 1 1 1 . 1 2 9 3 . 21 . DIEF___J__F_NC._.S -rt 24 . - 1 0 5 . - 3 1 6. - 8 " " . -Pi 1 . 7 •> 6 9 . - 1 3 7 2 . -4...1. " 1 1 . - 5 7 7 . - 1 7 1'. - 3 9 3 . - 9 5 6 . - 7 6 . 7 . - 1 5 0 1 . 1 2 2 2 1 . - 4 7 9 . - 1 0 1 . - 96 rt . - S I O . 15 7 9 . - 4 3 2 . -1 3 7 . - 7 6 . - ! 3 5 ? . - 2 7 9 . - 5 2 2 . - 1 9 4 . - 1 4 3 . - 1 S B " . no? - 1 4 " . - 3 1 2 9 . 1 6 . - 3 2 8 . - 1 1 2 . - 1 3 2 . - 2 5 9 6 . - 1 1 7 7 . 2 1 4 7 -1 " 2 - 2 2 ? - ? 51 - 2 2 3 -4; ft •W - 6 6 2 - 4 0 ? -1 9 5 - 7 C 4 - 3 1 - 19 -1 1 1 - 4 rt( 2 8 5 - 1 1 1 « ' 2 2 . '..5 1 . - 1 3 1 . - H 0 3 . - 8 7 8 . -1 4 0 . - ? 9 0 . - 1 0 9 . - 3 9 6 . - 3 8 7 . 6 f 8 9 . - 6 2 6 . - 4 3 5 . - 1 0 3 1 . - 7 2 1 . 1 6 5 . - 1 1 0 8 . - 5 2 2 . -1 01 . - 1 8 7 . - 4 1 . - ? 8 4 . - 1 7 7 4 . 7 1 6 . - 9 1 . - ? 2 6 . - 2 2 5 . - 2 1 4 . - 3 1 4 . - 6 2 . - 2 5 . - 2 9 . 7 61 . - 1 3 7 . - 5 1 . -303. - 8 6 . 10 7 9 . 2 6 5 . - 7 6 . - 1 0 5 . - 5 7 . - 2 9 1 . - 1 2 9 . - 2 1 . - 4 1 . -1 5 6 . 9 3 . - 5 3 9 . - 1 1 1 . - 5 0 5 . 2 6 6 . - 4 6 2 . - 4 7 . -1 4 8 . - 2 4 5 . - 2 0 1 . - 3 4 9 . - 3 6 5 . - 1 5 7 . - 7 5 . 6'" '02 . - 5 9 5 . 7 1 5 . - 6 3 2 . - 5 7 . - 9 6 . - 1 1 4 0 . 1 2 2 0 . 192 . - 5 2 7 . - 9 7 4 . 1 7 8 8 . - 1 1 6 . - 1 4 9 . - 5 1 3 . 1 0 0 2 . 5 4 4 . - 7 7 5 . - 1 7 7 . - 1 7 9 . 76 5 . - 2 7 9 . 8 4 4 7 . - 1 0 1 9 . - 8 5 . - 1 2 1 . - 1 0 7 . - 1 6 4 9 . Page 21 B DIFFERENCES - _ 2 4 0 . _ - 4 3 6 . - 5 6 7 . - ? 5 ? ? . - 9 3 2 . 2 7 4 1 1 . 1 3 6 . - 10 34 - 3 15 - 1 6 8 2 . - 2 ! 2 7 . - 7 7 8 . - 7 2 8 . DIFFERENCES - 3 7 1 . 5 2 . . - 1 4 1 . - 5 6 7 . . . . 1 5 5 . - 1 9 6 . - 5 8 . - 1 4 8 2 . - 50 6 . - 2 0 1 . 3 6 7 3 . 1 2 9 ? . - 2 6 2 . - 7 5 3 . 1 1 5 6 . - 8 3 . - 1 4 6 . 1 5 7 . - 4 1 5 . - 3 3 3 . - 3 1 7 . - 6 5 2 . DIFFERENCES - 3 7 4 . -1 9 7 . -4 0 6 . - 5 7 7 . - 2 1 4 0 . T 5 4 9 . - 2 7 6 . - ! 7 0 4 . -1 0 2 9 _ . - 2 2 5 . - 5 9 6 . IC. IK . - 7 5 7 . 1 3 5 3 3 . - 1 1 0 1 . 3 8 3 . - 4 1 1 . - 4 5 6 . - 1 0 3 0 . - 6 3 1 . - 1 1 5 3 . - 9 1 4 . DIFFERENCES -1 6 0 . - 4 1 . - 1 1 0 . DIFFERENCES - 3 7 0 . -1 1 2 . - 2 0 7 . - 2 3 9 . 1 9 4 . - 14 1 . - 7 2 2 . 76 1 . - 2 3 7 . - 5 8 . - 5 9 7 . - 2 0 5 . 7 0 2 1 . - 6 7 6 . - 8 9 . -1 or-. - 2 3 0 . - 2 3 7 . - 2 7 7 . - 5 1 6 . - 1 8 7 . - 3 6 9 . - 1 8 7 . 1 70 . - 7 9 1 . 2 1 5 . - 4 3 . 2 7 5 9 . - 9 6 . - 6 3 . 3 4 2 . - 2 4 1 . - 1 7 2 . 4 1 9 . - 5 0 3 . 6 6 9 4 . - 6 7 . - 2 8 1 . - 1 5 4 . - 8 5 2 . DI.F_EER_E.UCF.S_. - 5 9 3 . - 1 5 4 . - 2 5 5 . 1 3 2 3 . - 1 3 9 6 . - 4 3 0 . - 1 4 2 . 5 8 9 . 3 6 8 . 12 1 6 . - 5 2 7 . - 7 1 5 . - 9 . 5 6 . - 1 ! 2 4 . - 1 0 7 3 . - 9 7 . - 2 9 8 . - 3 7 2 . - 3 2 1 . - 6 4 4 . - 1 0 8 6 . 6 1 9 1 . DIFFERENCES . _ - 2 ? 8 . 5 6 . 2 4 0 0 . - 1 3 2 . - 2 0 5 . 118 9 . - 1 0 . - 4 7 6 . - 1 6 0 . -1 2 3_. - 1 1 6 . - 2 7 4 . - ? 9 7 . - ' i 8 4 . - 2 4 5 . .31 • - 1 4 2 . - 4 7 . _19_. - 1 9 6 . : 2 7 0 . - 2 8 9 . DIFFERENCES - 3 6 6 . 5 5 . 1 2 5 9 . - 1 7 4 . - 7 3 8 . 4 6 0 5 . - 2 1 . - 1 0 1 O . - 3 3 9 . - 1 2 1 . - 1 2 1 . - 3 3 5 . - 3 7 3 . . . _ - 6 2 1 _ . - 3 0 6 . - 6 9 . - 1 7 5 . - 9 5 . - 5 0 . _ _-20_6_. - 3 6 1 . _ - 4 3 7 . DIFFERFNCES - 1 6 6 . - 1 7 7 . - 5 7 8 . - 1 1 0 9 . - 3 3 8 . - 1 7 7 . - 7 3 . 5 2 2 2 . - 2 4 6 . - 4 5 5 . - 8 1 5 . - 3 0 3 . - 7 3 4 . - 9 3 5 . - 1 0 2 . - 3 2 8 . - 3 2 0 . 1 0 2 6 . - 7 3 3 . 1 4 3 . 4 1 7 . DIFFERENCES - 4 2 8 . - 1 1 4 . - 2 0 9 . - 2 3 2 . - 1 3 9 5 . - 2 8 7 . - 1 5 0 . - 4 1 3 . - 7 3 5 . - 7 5 . - 3 3 4 . 6 7 3 6 . - 3 5 4 . 1 3 8 2 . - . 4 7 1 . 5 8 . - 2 3 5 . - 2 4 9 . - 6 7 0 . - 4 8 2 . - 8 8 8 . - 2 5 5 . DIFFERENCES - 5 9 9 . - 0 . ' - 2 2 6 . - 8 9 0 . 8 3 4 . - 3 1 2 . - 9 0 . - 2 4 9 4 . - 8 5 1 . - 3 2 0 . 12 0 8 . - 6 9 3 . - 4 4 3 . - 1 1 4 7 . 8 4 5 8 . - 1 2 4 . - 2 0 7 . 5 6 . - 6 4 4 . 1 4 . ( - 5 1 1 . - 1 0 1 8 . DIFFERENCES - 2 4 3 . 12 . - 2 9 . - • 1 5 1 . - 4 8 ] . - 5 7 . - 2 6 . - 8 7 6 . - 3 1 1 . - 1 2 1 . - 2 6 1 . ' - 1 8 8 . - 4 4 9 . 3 7 . - 5 1 . - 9 5 . 4 1 6 4 . - 2 2 0 . - 2 1 6 . - 2 5 7 . " - 4 3 6 . T A B L E I V S A L I E N C E 4 . 2 4 - 0 . 5 9 - 0 . 5 4 - 0 . 5 5 . 4 8 - 0 . 5 1 - 0 . 0 8 0 . 1 o N - n . 6 8 - 0 . 4 1 - 0 . ' 3 - 0 . 6 3 - 0 . 5 8 - 0 . 6 5 - 0 . 6 1 - 0 . 2 8 - 0 . 3 8 - 0 . 5 0 '•- 0 . 4 2 - 0 . 6 1 -0 . 6 7 - 0 . 6 1 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 5 6 4 . 3 4 - 0 . 3 7 1 .0 5 _r . 6 1 - 0 . 3 2 0 . 1 5 - 0 . 4 2 - 0 . 5 6 - 0 . 5 7 - 0 . 1 9 -0 . * 7 4 -[1 . 4 2 - 0 . 5 2 - 0 . 4 7 " 0 . 7 9 - 0 . 4 8 - 0 . 5 8 - 0 . 2 4 - 0 . 4 7 - 0 . 7 6 - 0 . 7 2 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 6 3 - 0 . 10 4 3 . 5 8 - 0 . 3 0 - 0 . 5 5 - 0 . 8 6 - 0 . 1 6 - 0 . 3 0 • , • 9 . 4 2 - 0 . 5 4 - 0 . 5 0 - 0 . 5 5 - n . 9 2 - 0 . 9 0 - 0 . 9 1 - 0 . 4 0 • 0 . 5 5 . o . 2 6 - 0 . 4 0 - 3 . 9 1 - I - . 5 7 - 0 . 3 4 SAI I F N O . E ' - 0 . 5 9 ] . 0 5 - 0 . 3 5 6 . 6 0 - 0 . 5 7 - 0 . 3 0 - 0 . 3 1 - 0 . 5 0 - 0 . 5 5 - 0 . 5 3 - 0 . 1 8 -/J..71 4 .93 - 0 . 4 5 0 . 9 7 - 0 . 4 4 - 0 . 5 5 - 0 . 2 7 - 0 . 4 5 - c . 7 4 - 0 . 6 9 S A L I E N C E 0 . 5 1 - 0 . 6 1 - 0 . 3 2 - 0 . 4 0 5 .20 - 0 . 2 8 - 0 . 2 3 0 . 2 7 - 0 . 5 3 - 0 . 4 6 - 0 . 3 0 - 0 . 4 3 - c . 3 8 - 0 . 3 4 - 0 . 4 3 - 0 . 4 0 - 0 . 4 8 - 0 . 5 7 - 0 . 1 5 - 0 . 4 3 . - P . 4 4 - C . 2 3 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 3 9 - 0 . 4 5 7 . 7 5 - 0 . 4 1 - . ' . 3 6 2 8 . " 6 - 0 . 4 9 - 0 . 4 3 5 . 4 3 - 0 . 2 7 -0.55 - 3 . 9 4 1 . 0 9 3 . 5 2 - 0 . 4 2 - 0 . 4 4 - 0 .44 - 0 . 5 4 - 0 . 5 2 0 . 0 8 -c . 9 3 - 0 . 9 6 1 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 0 7 0. 1 6 - 0 . 5 2 -0. 3 3 _, . 2 6 -0 . 4 8 ' 3 . 3 6 0.33 -0 . 6 7 - 0 . 3 0 -0 . 3 5 - 0 . 5 7 . 5 6 - 0 . 6 3 - 0 . 5 9 - 0 . 1 2 0 . 0 5 -0. 1 4 0.4 7 -0 . 5 9 . 6 1 -0 . 5 4 S A L I F N C E 0 . 0 9 -0 . 4 8 - 0 . 3 9 - 0 . 4 2 . 1 8 - 0 . 3 4 0 . 3 1 2 . 7 8 - 0 . 5 8 10. 1 9 ? - 0 . 4 5 - 0 . 2 5 - i .44 -0 . 5 3 - 0 . 4 9 -0. 3 4 - 0 . 3 7 - 0 . 4 9 0. 0 1 - o . ^ 9 . 3 4 - 0 . 2 2 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 6 3 - 0 . 3 0 ' 8 . 9 7 - 0 . 4 0 . , . 6 ] - 0 . 9 1 - 0 . 30 - 0 . 3 4 . , 6 . 1 . 8 8 - 0 . 2 9 • - 0 . 5 3 - 0 . 3 0 . 9 1 - 0 . 9 1 - 0 . 9 1 - 0 . 5 0 o . 3 5 0. 1 0 - 0 . 5 0 -0 . 9 5 . 3 3 0 . 0 2 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 4 3 - ' . 7 0 - 0 . 5 3 -0 . 5 4 - o . 2 ' ' . - ( . . 5 8 - o . 5 1 - 0 . 0 4 - 0 . 4 2 4. 0 2 - ' . . 3 9 f. - 3 R -i . 7 4 0-. I 8 0 . 9 8 - 0 . 5 8 - 0 . 4 4 -0.5 5 -'--.45 - 0 . 8 1 . 4 9 - 0 . ^ 8 Page 21 C S A L I E N C E - 0 . 0 6 S A L I F N C E - 0 . 3 7 ' !.5i - 0 . 6 1 - ' . 3 1 - 0 . 6 6 - 0 . 6 6 0 . 0 7 - 0 . 4 7 • ' . . • : • ? - • > . , - * • - t . 6 5 - 0 . 5 9 - " . 7 7 - 0 . 4 9 - 0 . e 5 - ' . 3 9 - 0 . 9 ^ - 0 . 5 5 - 0 . 3 2 O . . 0 J . 0 . 1 5 - 0 . 6 5 1 4 . 1 . 7 - _ _ . _ ° _ 1 - P . H i - 0 . 7 8 • - 0 . 6 6 - 0 . ^ 7 - ( 1 . 6 5 - o . 5 6 2 . 7 * 2 . 3 1 ' 0 . 3 3 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 5 2 - " . 3 1 - i . o ! - 0 . 2 6 - . 4 4 1 . 6 2 - 0 . 5 3 - 0 . 4 5 - O . 9 0 - 0 . 7 6 - 0 . 3 ! - { . . o r 6 . 4 ] - U . 8 9 - C . 5 8 - 0 . 3 6 - 0 . 6 5 __..__] - 0 . 4 4 - . 8 6 - o • 9 4  _S.AU.EN.CE_ S A L I E N C F S A L I E N C F - 0 . 4 7 - • ; . 6 3 - 0 . 9 5 - " . 5 5 - ' . 5 5 - C . ° 0 - 0 . 4 4 - 0 . 1 3 - ( . . 9 3 ^ . 3 6 - 0 . 5 1 -'1,75 - ' . . 8 7 2 9 . 5 8 1 . 9 0 - 0 . 5 5 - 0 . 8 7 - ' ' . 9 1 - 0 . 6 4 - 0 . 9 4 - ' ' . 7 3 - 0 . 9 8 S A L I E N C E - 0 . 3 9 - 0 . 6 9 -.-..11 - ' . 5 3 0 . 1 8 - ' ' . 4 8 - 0 . 4 6 — C- .11 - 0 . 9 1 C . 5 1 - 0 . 6 ? - . ' . 7 5 - : . 6 7 1 . 3 3 1 1 . 0 1 - 0 . 6 1 - 0 . 5 9 - 0 . 6 7 - 0 . 5 2 - . . ' . 6 . ' . 3 0 - 0 . B 9 S A L I E N C E . 2 9 " " ~ r. .70 ^o7.R 1 . 2 4 - ' . ' . 4 6 - ' . . 2 4 - ' " ' . 1 3 -0.35 - r > . 5 7 -0. 43 ?:. . ' « - ' ' . 6 5 -: .43 . 5 2 -0 . 4 8 2.00 -0 .33 -0.46 ' - . 1 3 -0.43 -".68 - i . 6 2 S A L I E N C E - 9 . 4 1 - o . n . . 7 6 --.?3 - 0 . 2 5 -'-.53 - . 6 9 - " . 9 2 1 1 . 50 4.63 - : ' . 2 ! - . ' . 6 8 - f . 5 8 - 0 . 2 9 - . 2 3 - r . 1 7 - ' . . 3 8 - ' . 5 4 -0 . 7 3 -C.Ot - 0 . 3 5 , - . . 6 2 - C . _ 6 9 - i . 4 3 - 2 r _ _ s __ -ill -0 . ° 4 -0 . 4 7 - 0 . 4 3 . . " s o "ftrii -773 6 " ' - ! * . 6 8 - . . 5 9 - 0 . 4 8 S A I I E N C E 0 . 4 1 - ' . . 2 7 - . ' . 5 2 - I . 7 8 - ' . 1 6 -0 . 3 8 .0 . 4 7 0 . ^ 5 -0 . 6 7 -f .37 -0.0! - ' • . . : . ! - . 3 1 - C . 6 3 -0 . 6 ' ' 0 . 1 5 , -0. 2 5 - 0 . 3 9 1 - J . 6 I ; - . 6 5 - ' ' . 5 9  '.2'' -0.90 - " . 1 7 - . 3 8 ' . 4 5 - 0 . 6 3 - 0 . 6 3 ' • . 9 5 -0 . 1 3 -0.02 1 .19 - : , ° 3 - 0 . 3 1 - 0 . 1 3 ; . 6 8 -0.5.8 11.12 - . 9 6 - ( . 9 4 S A L I E N C f c - 0 . 6 9 - . 7 8 - 0 . 4 9 - • . 6 7 - ' . 4 2 - ( . . 3 7 - ( ' . 5 5 - 0 . 3 3 - - . ( 9 " . 5 2 - 0 . 7 2 3 . ' - 3 - " . 9 1 - . 7 5 ( . 0 2 - 0 . 6 7 - 0 . 6 0 - ' . . 6 8 - o . 6 l - ' . 9 5 1 1 . " 1 ' . ! 9 S A L I E N C E . . . -- . - - . 6 3 - " . 4 2 - 6 . 3 8 - ' . 6 6 - . 4 8 - " . " 4 - 0 . 4 9 - 0 . 4 4 ' - n . 7 9 - 0 . 0 6 1 . 8 3 - • . 9 3 - ' . o r - 0 . 8 7 -''.76 - - . ? 0 - ' ' . 3 2 . - ' . 5 ° - . . 9 _ 7 . 1 3 ) 3 7 . 5 7 22 a significant rating for a comparatively small exchange. In the present study of the G.V.R.D., 150 is the median value of differences and i t i s f e l t that any lesser values do not constitute sufficient concentrations of information to be of comparative importance within the total region. Also two values are chosen as c r i t i c a l thresholds for the R.A. index i t s e l f : RA £ .10 and R.A. < .25. This means that for two areas to be salient, the flow of transactions in both directions must be at least ten per cent more than expected from the indifference model. The twenty-five per cent value i s simply used to indicate an even greater intensity of transactions. Further, because of the arbitrary nature of these thresholds the two values provide a useful comparative check on the validity of the procedure. One-way flows for both thresholds are also mapped to .minimize loss of information, however they are not considered salient. It is expected that a mapping of derived salient relationships for the G.V.R.D. should reveal communities of interest interacting more within each other than with others. The 'core-ring' concept elaborated i n the previous chapter w i l l be strongly supported since the gross size effects of the C.B.D. as the central node, w i l l be eliminated. Discussion of Results Figure 4 illustrates the salient two-way flows for volumes where RA <, .25, and D^. £ 150. (See Figure 4) What was previously seen FIGURE A O Page 22 A 23 as emergent in the graph theory interpretation of the nodal structure of the region is crystallized in this mapping. A sectoral core area of relationships are clearly delineated from a peripheral ring system. Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, New Westminster, Whalley, Newton and White Rock a l l interact with each other, to form a peripheral ring from the north to southeast. Ladner and Beach Grove form the ring to the southwest and i t is included with Richmond and Steveston. On the north shore, West Vancouver, North Vancouver and Deep Cove form a circumference more strongly connected with each other than with other parts. The core areasis segregated into west and east sectors, and is clearly separated from the above described peripheral system. The C.B.D. is not connected to either of these systems because the total volume i t handles generates extremely high expected values which result in negative salience values. Figure 5 illustrates one-way flow where: D £ 150, RA < .25. The mapping strongly reinforces the above analysis. Richmond to Fairfax is seen as the only interface activity of the two systems and the interaction i n the eastern periphery i s once again emphasized. Lowering the i n i t i a l threshold of the R.A. index from £.25 to <.10 s t i l l does not change the communication pattern significantly, except for linking the east-west sectors of metropolitan area. (See Figure 6) Once again, lowering the parameters to RA = <.10 and mapping a l l flows, the pattern persists. (See Figure 7) Going to another extreme (Figure 8) where the FIGURE 5 Page 23 A FIGURE 6 Page 23 B F I G U R E 7 Page 23 C 24 R.A. threshold is raised to +1:0, creates a large loss of information but nevertheless retains the general structure outlined above. It seems clear then, that communicative habits do reflect a discernible geographical pattern. In the Vancouver metropolitan area, these patterns correspond to previously mentioned geographic studies using more conventional data bases. FIGURE 8 Page 2U A 25 C H A P T E R I I I 25a The major intent of this chapter i s to explore the relationship between s o c i a l structure and communicative (interactive) behaviour. This analysis corresponds to the middle section of Soja's (1969) generalized framework on page . The intent i s to synthesize the communication patterns of the G.V.R.D. with s o c i a l area analysis through the basic assumption that s o c i a l structure influences communicative behaviour i n ordered and predictable ways. Such a relationship i s not meant as s t r i c t l y casual but rather c i r c u l a r l y causal. "Sp a t i a l structure and s p a t i a l process are c i r c u l a r l y causal. Structure i s a determinant of process as much as process i s a determinant of structure". (Abler, 1971) Social Area Analysis Social structure refers to the communities of a c i t y as s p a t i a l expressions of s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . (Bourne, 1971) I t i s a l o g i c a l extension of studies of r e s i d e n t i a l structure discussed i n the f i r s t chapter, but with p a r t i c u l a r emphasis on more recent developments i n the analysis and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of s o c i a l or ecological areas. Such studies usually occur within the framework of s o c i a l area analysis. Social area analysis was o r i g i n a l l y developed by E. Shevky. I t s theoretical basis generally assumes that urbanization i s a result of * increasing s o c i e t a l scale which i s reflected by increased s t r u c t u r a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . (Greer, 1962; Charde, 1972). The three major aspects of increasing s o c i e t a l scale are: 26 1. A change in the range and intensity of relations; 2. Differentiation of function; 3. Complexity of organization. The f i r s t refers to functional occupational changes, mainly expressed by increasing proportions of the labour force involved in service and tertiary oriented occupations. Differentiation of function reflects changes in basic l i f e styles such as increasing numbers of females in the labour force and increasing concentration of urban-centred relationships. Complexity of organization is evidenced by increasing diversity of publics through age and sex distribution, mobility and increasing diversity of interests. Charde (1970) summarizes the approach as: an attempt to capture the range of interdependency and the increase of interdependency and therefore increase in scale, or aspects of increased scale such as change in the range and intensity of relations, differentiation of function and complexity of organization through the structural feflec- . tibns of these changes". In a seminal work, Shevky and Bell (1955) identified three structural factors as the basis of measuring social differentiation. Social rank is designed to reflect the changes in range and intensity of relation-ships. It generally consists of a composite index of socio-economic characteristics of income, occupation and education. Urbanization i s meant to reflect the differentiation of function and indexes the variables of f e r t i l i t y , women in the labour force and single family dwellings. The third factor, segregation, reflects the diversity of 27 organization by tabulating ethnicity and r e l a t i v e concentrations of minority group population. Empirically then population i s thus categorized by assembling census characteristics related to the three factors. C r i t i c i s m of Social Area Analysis There are several legitimate c r i t i c i s m s of s o c i a l area analysis. One i s that i t lacks a sound theoretical basis and more elaboration of the theory i s needed. (B e l l and Markos, 1964; Howley and Duneon, 1957) From a focus on s o c i a l change i n i n d u s t r i a l societies the technique makes an abrupt s h i f t to census tracts of much smaller regions. "The deficiency of the Shevky-Bell orientation i s i t s f a i l u r e to specify precisely how and under what conditions size i s related to s o c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n " . (Charde, 1970) Further, the shortcomings of census tracts themselves impose severe l i m i t a t i o n s . (Murdie, 1971) Another c r i t i c i s m i s that the technique f a i l s to specify exactly how d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n occurs and the relationship between the three indices. (Charde,1970) Does a change i n urbanization affect segregation and how? Also, the concept of s o c i a l areas has no geographical reference and there are operational d i f f i c u l t i e s i n combining the notions of s o c i a l space and ecological space. Despite these drawbacks, the,social area approach i s generally considered a useful measure of s o c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . Recent work with factor and component analysis have provided a s p a t i a l dimension 28 to the analysis. Anderson and Bern (1961) did this for four ci t i e s in the United States and found that economic status is primarily distributed in sectors and family status is a concentric phenomena. (Murdie, 1971) McElrath (1962) in a study of Rome found that economic status and family status are both concentric and sectorial with large families of low economic status occupying the periphery. (Murdie, 1971) After applying social area analysis to Newcastle-under-Thyme, Herbert (1967) concluded that: " the social area map is meaningful and accurately differentiates the urban structure of Newcastle thus f u l -f i l l i n g one claim which may be made of the approach is that i t summarizes several essential aspects of the social geography of an urban area. That social area analysis is a useful comparative tool has perhaps been demonstrated by the comparisons which, have been made between the results of this study and those which have been obtained from other parts of the world". (Murdie, 1971) Accepting the general validity of social area analysis then, i t i s possible to see that increasing scale, as i t refers to numbers and intensity of human relations, is highly dependent on communication systems. " the underlying and organizing framework in the city consists of the media of interaction. The principal means of f a c i l i t a t i n g interaction of a l l types are the complex networks of transportation, communication, and linkages". (Bourne, 1971) Such systems enable control of the material environment which makes largeness of scale possible. Without communications, inter-relation-ships through space and time are impossible. 29 Given that social differentiation and interaction are interrelated, our concern here i s to examine the influence of social structure on communicative behaviour. The reverse process w i l l be examined in the last chapter. Literature Relating Communications and Social Structure Taking the social area typology as a structural context, Orleans (1960) has employed the effects of social differentiation on inter-action (contacts with others). He suggested that people w i l l choose from perceived alternatives, those which are useful and available to them by reason of their social attributes. The constraints resulting from such attributes largely determine patterns of interaction, e.g. income, education, age, etc. These patterns are in turn determinants of a person's world view and l i f e style. He points out: "An individual's recognition and evaluation of his environment is considered to be a function of scale as indicated by his social position and physical location". (Orleans, 1968) In discussing urban processes from a general systems point of view, Buckley reached somewhat the same conclusion. He defines the socio-cultural level of a society as a shifting s t a t i s t i c a l or probability structure (or ensemble of constraints) expressing over time the transactional processes occurring among lower level (personality) structure. He postulates " the complexity of communication components of the system". (Buckley, 1968) Webber (1967) has also 30 attempted to link urban theory and communication theory. He sees communication channels as the basis of urban social structure and interaction, not place, as the essence of the city and city l i f e . (Webber, 1967) Meier (1962) has advanced perhaps the most comprehensive communica-tion theory of urban growth. He feels that: " research on urban communications systems seem to provide much greater rewards, in the form of more powerful explanations, than does research in the more traditional fields of human ecology, geography, land economics, municipal administration and t r a f f i c study". Public communication (culture) is expressed in cultural interaction. In analyzing this process i t becomes necessary to: " identify external boundaries and subdivisions of culture, the inputs and outputs, the elements and aggregates of elements that interact, the behaviour of these elements when subjected to specific conditions, the transformation that can be effected and the environ-mental constraints that apply". (Meier, 1962, p. 107). Other communication oriented literature also supports a contextual analysis of social interaction or communicative behaviour. A sign is not received in isolation, i t is part of a complex environmental situation. (Cherry, 1961) The interpretation of a communication depends on accumulated experiences of receivers, and are generally common to people in similar circumstances. (Cherry and Charde, 1970) Friedson (1954) finds that the use of mass media cannot be explained except by references to local audiences, their social character and their interaction patterns. Katz and Lazarsfeld (1964) and Merton 31 (1963) studying personal influence found that persons of like^ interest and social status influence each other. The relationship between social structure and communication is further emphasized in the literature on diffusion of information and the "two-step flow" of communication. (Rogers, 1962) Coleman, Katz and Menzel (1957) demonstrated that the use of new drugs spread through the medical profession largely along the links of a social network. Generally, communications which influence others are mediated by members of interest groups which are basically alike in social composition to the rest of the interest group. (Charde, 1970) Social Area Analysis in Vancouver There have been three major social area type analyses done in the Vancouver area in 1961 census tracts. Peucker and Rare (1966) did a factorial ecology of Greater Vancouver which included 79 variables, Bell (1965) mapped the ecological structure of the Metropolitan area and Patterson (1972) performed a factorial ecology of the G.V.R.D. The three studies generally agree in the geographical distribution of social areas. Bell's indices are chosen for the present purpose mainly because of the c l a r i t y of their graphic presentation. This analysis must be considered more suggestive than conclusive since the tele-communication data is for 1968 and the social area data for 1961. It i s , however, the most recent data available. 32 Having previously i d e n t i f i e d the sal i e n t communication networks, t h i s map i s overlaid on one displaying the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of s o c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n measured by a socio-economic factor. I t i s expected that salient relationships w i l l occur within or between l i k e s o c i a l areas. I t i s also expected that higher ranked socio-economic areas w i l l have a' larger range of communicative behaviour. This i s measured by long distance:calling both within and out of the province. Further, i t i s expected that since higher ranked socio-economic categories implies a higher resource a v a i l a b i l i t y to invest i n i n t e r a c t i o n , they w i l l have a greatest mean number of contacts. A l l three expectations are closely related to the constructs of s o c i a l area analysis. Accompanying an increase i n scale i s an increase i n the range of interaction. (Wilson, 1945; Shevky, B e l l , 1955; Charde, 1970) Webber (1967) has theorized that when people become more highly specialized as reflected i n occupation and education they are increasingly involved i n non-propinquitous communication. Both the range and number of contact measurements may be taken as indicators of increasing d i v e r s i t y of inte r e s t s . Komorovsky (1946) and Wright and Hyman (1958) found that as the socio-economic l e v e l r i s e s , people participate i n more volunteer groups or organizations. Discussion of Results • Figures 9 to 13 demonstrate that s a l i e n t relationships do occur more within and between l i k e s o c i a l areas than among diff e r e n t i a t e d areas. FIGURE 9 Page 32 A FIGURE 10 Page 32 B FIGURE 11 Page 32 C FIGURE 12 Page 32 D FIGURE 13 Page 32 E 33 This phenomena i n part supports Webber's contention that a city region is a derivative of the communications pattern of the individuals and groups that inhabit i t . (Webber, 1963) On the basis of long-distance calling, i t does not appear that higher level socio-economic areas have a larger range of communicative behaviour. Table V displays the absolute rank of exchange areas as measured by the number of intra-provincial and out-of-province c a l l s . Only seventeen areas are used since i t was impossible to obtain comparable data for the LAK, WHA, WRK and NTN exchange areas. If long distance calling can be taken as one measure of the range of interaction, no strong relation between i t s frequency and socio-economic rank emerges. The picture is even more uncertain using a relative ranking obtained by dividing the number of calls per exchange area by the number of terminal connections or telephones. (See Table VI) There may be a partial explanation for the intra-provincial ranking since this includes t o l l calls within the G.V.R.D. A further explanation for the ranking of out-of-province calls was sought by looking at a l l number of business connections out of the total terminal connections. This i s shown in Table VII. Once again, no substantive relation emerges. It can thus only be concluded that for the G.V.R.D. and the given data base there is no relationship between the range of communicative behaviour and levels of socio-economic areas. 33A TABLE V Absolute Ranking for long-distance c a l l i n g ( i n number of messages) for i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l and' out-of-province data for the week ending July 10, 1971. Intra-Provincial rank exchange MSG area Out-Of-Province rank exchange area MSG 1 MU 60746 1 MU 59815 2 NOR 27517 2 RE 12237 3 CA 22091 3 TR 10358 4 RE 20663 4 NOR 8531 5 TR 18560 5 CY 8109 6 DTM 17526 6 AL 8024 7 HEM 16350 7 HEM 7880 8 CYP 15507 8 AM 5873 9 AL 11481 9 RMD 5868 10 FAI 10172 10 FAI 5787 11 WUN 10028 11 LAD 3925 12 AM 9776 12 WUN 3885 13 RMD 7763 13 PTM 3715 14 STV 4686 14 CA 3329 15 BGR 4517 15 STV 2536 16 LAD 3621 16 BGR 1119 17 DPC 2908 17 DPC 1043 Data from B.C. Telephone Company. 33B TABLE VI Relative Ranking for long-distance c a l l i n g £ln number of messages) for i n t r a - p r o v i n c i a l and out-of-province data for the week ending July 10, 1971 (messages divided by number of terminal connections i n each exchange area). Intra-•Provincial Out-Of--Province Relative exchange re l a t i v e exchange rank area rank area 1 LAD 1 LAD 2 BGR 2 MU 3 MU 3 RMD 4 PRM 4 CYP 5 DPC 5 DPC 6 RMD 6 CA 7 NOR 7 BGR 8 WVN 8 AL 9 CYP 9 TR 10 TRI 10 RE 11 RE 11 NOR 12 AL 12 WVN 13 HEM 13 PTM 14 CA 14 AM 15 STU 15 HEM 16 AM 16 STU 17 FAI 17 FAI 33C TABLE VII Absolute and Relative ranking for originating flow volumes by area exchange. (divided by number of terminal connections) 1 MU 1 DPC 2 RE 2 MU 3 HEM 3 BGR 4 LAK 4 CA 5 TRI 5 RMD 6 NOR 6 NTN 7 FAI 7 WVN 8 AM 8 CYP 9 CYP 9 LAD 10 AL 10 WHA 11 WHA 11 PTM 12 PTM 12 AM 13 WVN 13 STU 14 CAS 14 LAK 15 STU 15 TRI 16 NTN 16 NOR 17 RMD 17 HEM 18 WRK 18 PTQ 19 PTQ 19 FAI 20 BGR 20 AL 21 DPC 21 REG 22 LAD 22 WRK 34 The third expectation, that higher ranking socio-economic categories w i l l have a greater number of contacts because of more resources to invest i n interaction, was also negated. Table VII shows the absolute and relative rankings for the flow volume originating in each exchange area. Once again, a more comprehensive analysis i s required to negate or substantiate any behavioral hypothesis. 3* C H A P T E R I V 350/ In the previous chapters, the relationship of telecorranunications to urban analysis was explored. I t was found that by using telephone data as a measure of l o c a t i o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n , a functional region and i t s s p a t i a l structure could be i d e n t i f i e d . Next, loc a t i o n a l attributes and t h e i r areal association were related to the s p a t i a l analysis through a series of behavioral assumptions. Throughout, the channel of communication has been held constant, here, the hardware or mode w i l l be considered a variable and the a c t i v i t y , i . e . communicating, the dependent variable. To begin, i t w i l l be useful to explore some recent telecommunication innovations that have contributed to what i s loosely referred to as the 'communications revolution'. Telecommunication Technology In 1947 B e l l Telephone laboratories developed the t r a n s i s t o r , and solid-state components replaced the vacuum tube almost completely. The t r a n s i s t o r allowed for low cost, miniaturized, high speed, low power drain e l e c t r i c a l devices such as the computer and radio. Presently, the offspring of the t r a n s i s t o r , integrated c i r c u i t s and large-scale integration, have increased the advantages of solid-state technology by orders of magnitude. Originally an integrated c i r c u i t device cost $250 to $600; today integrated c i r c u i t devices are mass produced i n 50,000 piece l o t s and s e l l for $2.50. Large scale i n t e -gration permits placing the equivalent of hundreds of transistors on a single pinhead. Hence, we have electronic telephone switching, 36 coirmiunications s a t e l l i t e s , and enormous capacity computers. The second major development in telecommunication technology is the increase in capabilities of transmission devices. Actual use of lasers has already been demonstrated in laboratories and their theo-r e t i c a l capacity for T.V. channel and voice transmission is for a l l practical purposes limitless. Of course there are many d i f f i c u l t i e s i n u t i l i z i n g this capacity, but the principle has been applied. The great advantage of communication satellites i s that distance is not a factor in transmission cost. Employing satellites in a comm-unication system means that cost of communicating ten miles is the same as for communicating 10,000 miles. Like most communication devices, the satellites are experiencing growth and decreasing cost. Year of Number of voice-grade Treatment cost (US) Satellite F i r s t Use 2-way teleph. circuits per ci r c u i t yr. EARLY BIRD •[ 1965 240 15,300 INTEL SAT II 1966 240 8,400 INTEL SAT III 1968 1200 1,450 INTEL SAT IV 1971 6000 500 Micro-wave technology is familiar to most. It is limited to line of sight relay towers and a narrow range within the spectrum frequency. Presently i n the United States some private companies operate their own micro-wave system for transmission of computer data and voice signals. 37 The development of cable technology has led to the notion of the "wired city". CATV (cable television) i s extremely versatile and can carry almost anything one would want to transmit, as well as providing feedback of two-way communication capability with a 20-80 channel capacity. Furthermore, i t provides excellent reception, i s inexpensive, can be integrated with satellites and doesn't deplete the broadcast spectrum resource. It i s interesting to note that the growth of CATV has been from "hinterland to heartland" and is just presently penetrating major urban centres. It has also experienced constant p o l i t i c a l and regulatory harassment. Nevertheless i t s growth is impressive, as shown in Figure 14. Other transmission devices include the video phone; allowing audio-visual communication; long-range facsimile capable of printing a newspaper in your liv i n g room in six minutes; ultramicrofile permitting the miniaturization of a library of 100,000 volumes to the cubic content of three f i l i n g cases; electronic video recording (EVR) devices enabling TV program recording and production. The l i s t i s by no means exhaustive, rather merely suggestive of some of the more obvious developments. The third major development within the continuing trend of.lower , cost, lower power drain and miniaturization i n el e c t r i c a l technology i s , of course, the computer. W.H. Ward of Rand notes in comparing 37A FIGURE 14 GROWTH OF CATV INDUSTRY (As of January i of Each Year) Year Operating Systems Total Subscrib 1952 70 14;000 53 150 30,000 54 300 65,000 55 400 150,000 56 450 300,000 57 500 350,000 58 525 450,000 59 560 550,000 1960 640 650,000 61 700 725,000 62 800 850,000 63 1,000 950,000 64 1,200 1,085,000 65 1,325 1,275,000 66 1,570 1,575,000 67 1,770 2,100,000 68 2,000 2,800,000 69 2,260 3,600,000 1970 2,350 4,500,000 Source: Television Factbook, Vol. 39, p. 79-a. "During the periods Jan. 1/54 to Jan. 1/70, the number of commercial T.V. stations increased from 354 to 677, whereas cable systems increased from 300 to 2,350". Proceedings, 9th I.E.E.E., July, 1970. 38 the computers of 1953 to those of 1965 that: the 1953 machine weighed about 5000 lb., had a volume of 300 to 400 cubic feet, and required about 40 kilowatts of power. The contemporary computer (1965) is a hundredfold lighter (about 50 lb. ) , a thousand times smaller (about 1/3 cu. ft.) and requires 250 times less power (150 watts). Moreover, i t has twice the storage and runs ten times as fast ". In 1954, there were less than 1,000 computers in the U.S.A. In 1968, there were 30,000 representing a capital investment of over $11 b i l l i o n . Their influence is ubiquitous. As long ago as 1965 i t could be said that, 'At least a dozen of the 20,000 computers in the U.S. have touched your l i f e since you woke up this morning. They're processing your cheques, keeping your credit card accounts, figuring the market averages you hear on the news, blending your livestock concentrates, helping predict tomorrow's weather, and formulating your breakfast sausage. A l l this in the short years since the computer age began'. The phenomenon is well known, and i t should not be necessary to elaborate. Aside from the obvious, what is generally important in these develop-mental trends in communication technology is that i t is presently advanced beyond our abi l i t y to use i t ef f i c i e n t l y . However, communications never exist i n a vacuum and their history i s one of creating demand. Furthermore, i t is possible not only to interlink a l l of the above innovations but also to connect them with a l l existing media hardware such as telephones, printing•presses, and television. The potential 39 s o c i a l , economical and p o l i t i c a l Impacts are staggering. An indication of t h i s phenomenon i s contained i n a description of present t e l e v i s i o n usage by a member of the U.S. Federal Commission (F.C.C.), N. Johnson. "Americans receive decidedly more of their education from televisions than from elementary and high schools. By the time the average c h i l d enters kindergarten he has already spent more time learning about his world from t e l e v i s i o n than the hours he would spend i n a college classroom earning a B.A. degree. There are 60 m i l l i o n homes i n the U.S. and over 95% of them are equipped with a t e l e v i s i o n set. (More than 25% have two or more sets.) The average male viewer, between his second and s i x t y - f i f t h year, w i l l watch t e l e v i s i o n for over 3000 entire days - roughly nine f u l l years of his l i f e " . " investments i n t e l e v i s i o n advertising have increased from $300 m i l l i o n i n 1952 to $900 m i l l i o n i n 1956 to $18 b i l l i o n i n 1968". "Alberto Culver rr.elies almost exclusively on t e l e v i s i o n advertising, and pushed i t s sales from $1.5 m i l l i o n i n 1956 to $18 m i l l i o n i n 1969. The manufacturer of the bottled l i q u i d cleaner L e s t o i l undertook a $9 m i l l i o n t e l e v i s i o n advertising program and watched his sales go from 150,000 bottles annually to 100 m i l l i o n i n three years - i n competition with Proctor and Gamble, Lever Bros, and others. The Dreyfus Fund went from assets of $95 m i l l i o n i n 1959 to $1.1 b i l l i o n i n 1965 and concluded 'T.V. works for us'." ".....what we sometimes f a i l to r e a l i z e moreover, i s the p o l i t i c a l significance of the fact that we have become a nation of c i t i e s . Nearly half of the American people l i v e i n the s i x largest states ..... Those states, i n turn, are substantially influenced ( i f not p o l i t i c a l l y dominated) by the i r major population i n d u s t r i a l - f i n a n c i a l -media centres such as Los Angeles, New York C i t y , Chicago, Philadelphia - the nation's four largest metropolitan areas. Thus, to have a major newspaper or T.V. station i n one of 40 these cit i e s is to have significant national power. And the number of interests with influence in more than one of these markets is startling". Teletechnology and Urban Structure Within this context, what is specifically important to this study is the manner in which such teletechnology affects and w i l l affect urban structure. Generally, the post-industrial development of "advanced" nations is urban and information intensive. As early as 1962 i t was recorded that: " in terms of the merely quantitative and commercial activities of men, the codifying and moving of information by technology has become easily the largest in the world. The A.T. & T. Company which moves only information has a capitalization several times larger than that of General Motor Corporation. The production and moving of heavy commodities is now a smaller a f f a i r than the codifying, exchange, and consumption of information ". (McLuhan, 1962) The functional significance of this replacement of the industrial paradigm to one related to services and communications is best examined by determining the groups in society who are most concerned with them. Jean Gottmann (1961) has identified the 'white collar revolution' as a dominant trend in economically developed nations. In 1966 in the U.S. 52.2% of the gainfully employed were either service or white collar workers. (Abler, 1970) Within this occupational category he further delineated a quaternary sector of economic activity. Originally the quaternary sector was meant to include only managerial, professional and 41 higher level technical personnel. (Gottman, 1961) More recently he has extended the category to include the upper strata of c l e r i c a l occupations. (Gottman, 1970) Abler (1970) defined the relationship between the quaternary occupations and communication systems as that between producer and tool. "Decision-makers fabricate decisions. Information is their raw material and commands are their finished products. Interccimmunications media are the instruments by which raw materials are assembled and finished products disem-inated". (A & G, 1970) As suchyy the quaternary group represents a control subsystem in the general system of urban organization. This control group and their means of control - communication system have distinct locational association. Both are products and producers of the urban environment. Whether considered at the scale of the individual, the economic and p o l i t i c a l organization, or at a world scale, urbanism, quaternary activity and intensive communications are almost always coincident. (Abler, 1970; Sjoberg, 1965; Davis, 1955) This functional and locational association has historically involved centralized control. With the increased communication capacity mentioned earlier, i t i s possible to rearrange existing areal relationships of social and economic a c t i v i t i e s . In the f i r s t chapters, an idealized communication space with equal two-way accessibility to a l l points was posited as a conceptual framework. 42 Then a communication channel was given and the actual flows examined, from functional and behavioural perspectives. Here, i t is suggested that such an idealized isotropic communication space is not only l i k e l y but probable. Since i t was also stated that the relationships between hardware (structure) channels and software effects (function) was circularly causal, i t remains to make some tentative suggestions concerning the effect of increasing channel capacities on given spatial structures. To date, there has been l i t t l e work of substance that examines this issue. Most efforts are highly speculative and proposed one of three basic p o s s i b i l i t i e s : dispersion of urban population, increased concentration or no change. Abler (1970), Berry (1968), Colin (1971), McLuhan (1962) and others see a decentralized urban organization as a result of greatly enlarged communication capabilities. More person-alized available inter-communication devices provide for the social-ization of the means of communications. This leads to the decentraliza-tion of control functions. (Abler, 1972) A good example is provided by quaternary industries mentioned earlier. The usual industrial locational factors of labour, raw material and market are not wholly relevant. Hagerstrand (1970) suggested a more functional analysis based on organizational or informational classifications of different economic ac t i v i t i e s . He found that within the Swedish economy administrative units (information or decision units) tended to concentrate while 43 operating units (production or manufacturing units) tended to an increasingly scattered location. Coinmunication/Transportation Substitution A basic tenet of this paper i s that cities exist to f a c i l i t a t e interaction, or in effect, they are substitutes for transportation. A c r i t i c a l question, then, is to what degree w i l l communication substitute for transportation and hence for cities as we presently know them? There is no clean-cut answer and probably each urban organization w i l l react somewhat differently. Goodwin (1963) relates the problem to the importance of computer technology. "The changes now taking place in the mechanics of decision making may have either of two opposite results with respect to the location of management centres. On the one hand, the reduction in the number of employees needed to staff a head-quarters office may hasten the concentration of decision making in a few locations; on the other hand, i t may well mean dispersion of headquarters because of the f l e x i b i l i t y of data flows through a computer. One must be aware of i t s great potential for changing the pattern of "office c i t i e s " . S t i l l others see a complementary role where the purpose of travel may be altered but not necessarily the frequency. Willmoth suggests that whether or not communications technology is a centrifugal or centripetal force is not as important as the effect of other factors brought into play by the diminishing of distant constraints. Within the new techno-logical framework, the outcome w i l l be determined by organizational change and levels of social acceptance. On the other hand, with more emphasis on planning i t becomes likely that the existing urban structure w i l l 44 influence the technology. Hence, we would see rapid development of substitutable technology in Japanese c i t i e s suffering severe internal congestion and pollution. Those who foresee high levels of substitution and dispersion view amenity resources as the future location determinants as traditional time-distance costs are collapsed. They cite several explanatory factors. The costs of communication are declining much more rapidly than those of transportation. Personal goods transport has an in-creasingly expensive service component cost. Urban travel time has not decreased and the upper limit of personal travel time allocation is being approached. Present transportation modes make significant demands on scarce resources while polluting physical and social environments. Advocates use these reasons to encourage dispersion and decentralization and view the C.B.D.'s as future museums. Others, using the same reasons suggest that broader choices should be seized upon by ci t i e s to become intensively specialized communication concen-trations or higher-order centres. In summation, speculation about the substitution process covers a vast spectrum of opinion. To date, l i t t l e research has been undertaken to predict the substitution effect of communication/information technology. Indeed, knowledge of past and present relationships is sparse. Towards this end, Willmoth (1970) presents a four step research strategy: 45 1. understand present relationships. 2. forecast pos s i b i l i t i e s (mainly technological). 3. forecast possibilities (susceptibility to substitution social acceptance, etc.) 4. evaluate (II) against c r i t e r i a (e.g. w i l l change be to the advantage of any particular group.) Within this general framework three main approaches have been attempted. They are: 1. relative performance of different media. 2. relative costs of different media. 3. influence of non-economical non-quantifiable factors. For immediate purposes the relative costs approach seem most pertinent to the transportation problem. Three methods of analysis w i l l be briefly considered; simple cost accounting, an evaluation matrix, and a consumer indifference curve. Memmot (1963) outlines the main phases of pi l o t study as: 1. identifying person and vehicle trips by purpose. 2. roughly determine proportions susceptible. 3. for susceptible trips, determine communication equipment required. 4. determine willingness to pay for communication in l i e u of travel. -46 5. determine a l l cost characteristics. 6. thus determine economics potential for substitution. 7. determine equipment that can be provided at amount people are willing to pay. 8. determine probable rate of social acceptance and adjust. 9. determine potential use of social acceptance rate for urban transport and communication planning. Healy applies weights to a profit measurement matrix to arrive at the following decision matrix: Employee Company Society Economic 11 11 12 12 13 13 Psychological 21 21 22 22 23 23 Social Environment 31 31 32 32 33 33 A simple decision model specifies that the net gain to recipients must be positive i f substitution is to be rewarding. Thus, a decision to substitute would be affirmative i f the receiver (employee, company, society) viewed the u t i l i t y or profit (economic, psychological, Social) as positive. Of course, weights must be applied to account for a plurality of interests among receivers, and to standardize dimensions. Within this content, the model states that the net profit of employee, company and society must each exceed zero. It is useful in that i t provides a framework for evaluation of community effects of substitution as well as the probability of such action. 47 The third method suggested employs the economists familiar indifference curve: ^ » « - ^ - M . t S i ' > ^ » Units can be measured by money or time or a combination of both. The model may be useful for rough theoretical guess estimates but the problems of such a comparative-static model seem to rule out i t s ultimate usefulness. Assuming a fixed expenditure for two services hides many of the complexities of the substitution process. An example is that many trips are for the purpose of communicating and much communicating is to encourage trip making. In fact, at a funda-mental level the difference between transport and communication is obscure. Stuffed (1969) indicates that i t is a difference of degree not principle: "It i s the relative amount of energy being moved that, traditionally, determines whether the movement of matter and energy involved is classified into either category". Hopefully, what does emerge as clear i s the highly interactive nature of communication, transportation, and urban development. Communications have an increasingly significant reciprocal effect on a transportation model's major components of modal s p l i t , generation and distribution. To optimize or predict the function of either, i t appears as essential to c r i t i c a l l y examine the intra and inter-relationships. Their importance in determining urban development cannot be overstated. 4 8 Suimnary and Conclusions Most urban studies tend to neglect any serious consideration of communications. This paper has attempted to use communications both as a given metric and as a variable. In the f i r s t instance, i t was assumed that i t was possible to derive a comprehensive and meaningful picture of urban s p a t i a l relations using communication data i n the form of origin-destination flow volumes. In the f i r s t two chapters, e f f o r t was focused on interaction between points representing telephone exchangesareas through the G.V.R.D. Through a graph theory interpretation, a functional or nodal region was i d e n t i f i e d . This closely corresponded with what was expected from other factors and studies. The C.B.D. i s the transaction maximizing node and receives more c a l l s than i t originates. Further, i t s influence, as measured by degree of in t e r a c t i o n , declines with distance. Transaction flow analysis was then used to develop a concept of salience for a more detailed analysis of the region. I t was found that the s p a t i a l structure of the G.V.R.D. closely corresponded to a "core-ring" model also supported by previous studies. Next, s o c i a l area analysis was used to determine the areal association and locational attributes of formal regions i n the G.V.R.D. Behavioural assumptions were then posited i n an attempt to synthesize concepts of 49 spatial and social structure. It was found that areas alike in socio-economics characteristics do communicate more with similarly characterized areas than with other areas. The ranking of socio-economic areas, however, was not found to be strongly correlated either to the range or number of contacts initiated by an area. Finally, recent developments in communication technology were reviewed to suggest possible future impacts on urban structure. The largest probable impact seemed to involve the notion of communication/transportation substitution which has potential for dispersing populations. 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