UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

British Columbia housing supply : an examination of the record Bynoe, Robert William Bruce 1975

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1975_A4_6 B9.pdf [ 9.77MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0093238.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0093238-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0093238-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0093238-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0093238-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0093238-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0093238-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0093238-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0093238.ris

Full Text

BRITISH COLUMBIA HOUSING SUPPLY - AN EXAMINATION OF THE RECORD by ROBERT WILLIAM BRUCE BYNOE . Comm., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, 1973 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR.THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION i n the Department of COMMERCE AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION  We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the r e q u i r e d standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September, 1975  In  presenting  an  advanced degree  the I  Library  further  for  this  shall  agree  thesis at  the U n i v e r s i t y  make  it  freely  that permission  his  of  this  written  representatives. thesis  for  It  financial  fulfilment  of  of  Columbia,  British  available  for  for extensive  s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d  by  requirements  reference copying o f  of  shall  that  copying or  n o t be a l l o w e d  k&usx  Columbia  i i<n^>  agree  for  that  and s t u d y . this, thesis or  publication  w i t h o u t my  COMMERCE AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h V a n c o u v e r 8, C a n a d a  I  by t h e Head o f my D e p a r t m e n t  is understood gain  the  permission.  Department  Date  in p a r t i a l  i  ABSTRACT  New r e c o r d l e v e l s of d w e l l i n g u n i t s t a r t s were experienced w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia 1969,  i n each o f the years 1964, 1967, 1968,  1971, 1972 and 1973.  R e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a r t s were  at r e c o r d l e v e l s u n t i l the downturn i n the World and P r o v i n c i a l economies i n 1974 reduced the l e v e l of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n activity. P a r a d o x i c a l l y , even though r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n has been a t r e c o r d l e v e l s , much a t t e n t i o n has been g i v e n t o c l a i m s t h a t B r i t i s h Columbia  has been e x p e r i e n c i n g a "housing  - a shortage o f housing  crisis"  supply.  In l i g h t o f the concern over the p o s s i b l e e x i s t e n c e o f a housing c r i s i s w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia,  t h i s t h e s i s examined  the housing stock and the r e c o r d o f the housing supply process i n B r i t i s h Columbia Is there a c r i s i s shortage?  i n an attempt  i n supply?  t o answer the q u e s t i o n s -  Is there a housing supply  I f so, how d i d i t develop?  The problem was a t t a c k e d through an examination o f changes i n the housing stock and the housing supply process w i t h i n the Province over the p e r i o d 1961 t o 1974.  The bulk o f the data  f o r the study was o b t a i n e d from the 1971 Census of Canada's s t a t i s t i c s on housing, 1961 t o 1971.  Information r e l a t i n g t o  housing c o n s t r u c t i o n over the p e r i o d subsequent  t o the Census was  a l s o o b t a i n e d from the Regional S t a t i s t i c i a n o f the C e n t r a l and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n .  Over the p e r i o d 1961 Columbia grew 4 5.3 31.1  percent  to 1971  percent,  the housing stock of  f a r outpacing  during the same p e r i o d .  population  British growth of  During the decade, housing  c o n d i t i o n s improved tremendously as the average number of rooms per d w e l l i n g i n c r e a s e d ; the average number of bedrooms per d w e l l i n g i n c r e a s e d ; the average number of persons per d e c l i n e d ; and  the number of two  household  f a m i l y households d e c l i n e d .  Housing c o n d i t i o n s c o u l d not have improved i f there had a breakdown i n the housing supply Between 1971  and  1974  new  s t r u c t i o n were experienced  been  process.  r e c o r d l e v e l s of housing con-  i n 1971,  1972  and  1973.  In  light  of the improving c o n d i t i o n s of the P r o v i n c i a l housing stock, i t would appear t h a t , i n aggregate, the housing supply  process  has  been f u n c t i o n i n g adequately. The  c o n s t r u c t i o n of s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d  than doubled between 1966 semi-detached u n i t s and  and  row  high l e v e l s i n r e c e n t y e a r s .  1973  and  d w e l l i n g u n i t s more the c o n s t r u c t i o n of  housing u n i t s has The  a l s o been at  o n l y s e c t i o n of the housing  market t h a t i s s u f f e r i n g from shortage of supply sector.  rental  Apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia reached i t s  peak i n 1969 of only 0.2 The  i s the  and has percent  since f a l l e n . was  experienced  In June 1974  a vacancy r a t e  i n Metropolitan  shortage of r e n t a l accommodation has  Vancouver.  been caused by  a  g r e a t i n c r e a s e i n the demand f o r r e n t a l accommodation, conc u r r e n t with a downturn i n r e n t a l apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n due  to  the reduced a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of investment i n r e n t a l apartments.  Investment i n apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n has become u n a t t r a c t i v e as a r e s u l t o f growing l a n d l o r d tenant c o n f l i c t s , changes i n Income Tax L e g i s l a t i o n , c i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n t o apartment development, and P r o v i n c i a l r e n t c o n t r o l  legislation.  The shortage o f r e n t a l apartment u n i t s w i l l only be eliminated  i f apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n again becomes a t t r a c t i v e  to i n v e s t o r s .  What i s needed i s an e l i m i n a t i o n o f a l l Rent  C o n t r o l L e g i s l a t i o n and an acceptance, by a l l l e v e l s o f Government, o f a commitment t o encourage, not d i s c o u r a g e , housing development o f a l l forms.  iv  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. ABSTRACT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES ACKNOWLEDGEMENT CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION . Purpose Method Scope CHAPTER I I OVERVIEW - B.C. HOUSING MARKET Symptoms (1) Vacancy Rates (2) Apartment C o n s t r u c t i o n (3) Land Costs (4) C o n s t r u c t i o n Costs (5) Cost o f Self-Owned Accommodation What i s a Housing C r i s i s ? APPENDIX TO CHAPTER I I  i iv vi viii ix 1 2 3 3 4 7 7 9 15 17 20 27  x  RELIABILITY OF AVERAGE MLS SALES PRICES  31  CHAPTER I I I DEMAND FOR HOUSING Housing Need and Demand Determinants o f Housing Demand (1) P o p u l a t i o n Growth (2) Income and Employment P a t t e r n s (3) P r i c e s and Rent (4) C r e d i t V a r i a b l e s (5) Consumer P r e f e r e n c e s  35 35 37 37 47 51 52 56  CHAPTER  IV ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF HOUSING Fixed Location Durability C a p i t a l Requirements Heterogenity Housing Markets  59 60 61 66 69 69  CHAPTER  V HOUSING SUPPLY E l a s t i c i t y o f Supply Lags i n Adjustment Dominance o f E x i s t i n g Stock The L e v e l o f House P r i c e s Increases i n Supply (1) Conversions (2) Percent o f Stock Involved i n Market Transactions (3) New C o n s t r u c t i o n  »  73 73 76 77 78 79 79 80 82  V  CHAPTER  V  HOUSING SUPPLY (cont'd.)  Determinants of Supply (1) A v a i l a b i l i t y o f Mortgage Funds (2) Entrepreneurs Reluctance t o Change P r i c e s and Rents (3) B u i l d e r s ' D e c i s i o n s t o B u i l d (4) Cost and A v a i l a b i l i t y of Land, C o n s t r u c t i o n Labour and M a t e r i a l s VI BRITISH COLUMBIA HOUSING TRENDS Housing Stock Types o f S t r u c t u r e s Tenure Values and Rents Housing C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s CONCLUSION ' Housing Demand (1) "Population Growth (2) Income Growth (3) Governmental I n c e n t i v e s B r i t i s h Columbia Housing Supply C o n s t r u c t i o n A c t i v i t y by S t r u c t u r a l Type Causes of the Shortage (1) C i t i z e n O p p o s i t i o n (2) Income Tax L e g i s l a t i o n (3) Rent C o n t r o l (4) Condominium C o n s t r u c t i o n The Future  Page No. 84 84 85 86 87  CHAPTER  91 91 99 107 114 119 12 5 12 5 12 5 12 6 127 127 12 9 132 132 133 134 136 138  BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX  143 149  vi  LIST OF TABLES Page No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25.  Dwelling S t a r t s , 1958-1973, Canada and B r i t i s h . Columbia 6 Vacancy Rates i n P r i v a t e l y - I n i t i a t e d Rental Apartments 8 Apartment S t a r t s , 1958-1973 10 Condominium Developments i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, 1968-1973 13 Comparison o f Condominium R e g i s t r a t i o n s t o S t a r t s of I n d i v i d u a l l y Owned Housing U n i t s , 1968-1973 14 T y p i c a l R e s i d e n t i a l Land Values - M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, 1954-1974 16 R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n Cost - Standard Bungalows, Vancouver Area, 1963-1973 18 R e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n Input P r i c e Indexes 19 Average MLS Sales P r i c e s f o r Greater Vancouver, 1960-1974 22 Monthly and Q u a r t e r l y Averages of R e s i d e n t i a l Sales f o r Greater Vancouver through M u l t i p l e L i s t i n g Service 25 Average D o l l a r Value per T r a n s a c t i o n - MLS System f o r the B r i t i s h Columbia Real E s t a t e Boards, 1963-1974 26 Mean MLS and T e e l a R e s i d e n t i a l S a l e s P r i c e s by Area and P e r i o d 33 Median MLS and T e e l a R e s i d e n t i a l Sales P r i c e s by Area and P e r i o d 34 P o p u l a t i o n , Households, and Average Number of Persons Per Household f o r Canada and Provinces 38 Annual Average Rates of P o p u l a t i o n Growth 39 Net M i g r a t i o n as a Percentage o f T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n Increase i n B r i t i s h Columbia 42 M i g r a t i o n t o the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t 43 Age and Sex D i s t r i b u t i o n s o f Migrants t o the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , 1966-1971 44 F o r e c a s t Net M i g r a t i o n to B r i t i s h Columbia to the Year 2000 45 P o p u l a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h Columbia: A c t u a l and Projected 46 Income L e v e l s , Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia 50 I n t e r e s t Rates and the Cost of Housing i n B r i t i s h Columbia 54 Tax Subsidy to Home Ownership as a Per Cent Reduction i n Imputed Gross Rental Income 58 Occupied Dwellings, P e r i o d of C o n s t r u c t i o n , Age 63 Age D i s t r i b u t i o n of Housing Stock, Canada and B.C., 1971 64  vii  Page No. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. "5 ^  36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46.. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54.  Age D i s t r i b u t i o n o f B.C. Housing Stock, 1971 N a t i o n a l Expenditures and R e s i d e n t i a l Expendit u r e s , 1963-1973 Occupied Dwellings by Tenure, 1961, 1966, 1971 B.C. Housing Stock, 1971 Households by Type, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1961, 1966, 1971 Households by Type, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1966, 1971 Housing Stock, 1961 Housing Stock - Occupied Dwellings - 1971, by Tenure and S t r u c t u r a l Type Housing Stock, 1961, Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n by S t r u c t u r a l Type Housing Stock, 1971, Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n by S t r u c t u r a l Type• Occupied Dwellings - Tenure i n Percentage Tenure P a t t e r n s by S t r u c t u r a l Type, 1971, Percentage Owned Newly Completed and Unoccupied D w e l l i n g s , Q u a r t e r l y by Urban Area, 1971-1974 Values and Rents, 1961 and 1971 Metro Vancouver - Rental Market, 1967-1973 B r i t i s h Columbia Housing C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , 1961, 1971 P o p u l a t i o n and Households - B r i t i s h Columbia, 1961, 1966, 1971 Dawson Creek Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 Kamloops Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 Kelowna Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 Nanaimo C i t y Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 P e n t i c t o n C i t y Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 P o r t A l b e r n i Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 P r i n c e George Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 P r i n c e Rupert Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 T r a i l C i t y Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 Vernon C i t y Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973 M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a Housing C o n s t r u c t i o n , 1963-1973  65 68 93 95 97 98 100 101 105 106 108 110 113 117 118 121 122 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161  viii  LIST OF FIGURES Page No. 1.  M.L.S. Average P r i c e Range  2.  Median Value f o r S i n g l e Detached Owner-occupied Non-farm Dwellings and Average Monthly Cash Rent f o r Tenant-occupied Non-farm Dwellings, f o r Canada and P r o v i n c e s , 1961 and 1971  116  The $40,000 Home  140  3.  23  ACKNOWLEDGEMENT  I would l i k e t o acknowledge the a s s i s t a n c e given to me by Dr. S. W. Hamilton d u r i n g the p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s and throughout my enrolment i n the Urban Land Economics program.  H i s h e l p has been g r e a t l y  appreciated. I would a l s o l i k e t o thank Miss Susan Aizeman and the former Miss M i c h e l l e J e f f e r s o n f o r t h e i r h e l p i n the t y p i n g o f the i n i t i a l d r a f t s of the t h e s i s .  I  would e s p e c i a l l y l i k e t o thank Mrs. Leon Heyes f o r her a s s i s t a n c e i n t a p i n g the f i n a l d r a f t o f t h i s  thesis.  F i n a l l y , I would l i k e t o thank the students of the f o u r t h f l o o r stacks f o r making the l i b r a r y and the p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s e n j o y a b l e .  research  1  CHAPTER I  INTRODUCTION 1973  was a r e c o r d year f o r r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i n  Canada as t o t a l housing s t a r t s i n c r e a s e d f o r the t h i r d  consec-  u t i v e year and reached a r e c o r d l e v e l o f 268,529 s t a r t s , 7.5 percent  higher than i n 1972.  In B r i t i s h Columbia r e c o r d  r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n was a l s o experienced i n g s t a r t s were recorded,  up 6.5 percent  as 37,627 d w e l l -  from 1972, and 34,604  housing u n i t s were completed t o add t o the stock o f housing. P a r a d o x i c a l l y , even though the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new housing u n i t s has been a t r e c o r d l e v e l s i n r e c e n t y e a r s , claims been made t h a t the housing development process g r e s s i v e l y s t r a n g l e d and has,  have  has been pro-  as a r e s u l t , hampered the supply  of housing u n i t s t o the market. Much a t t e n t i o n has been given i n the press t o the r a p i d e s c a l a t i o n o f house p r i c e s w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia and t o the a b i l i t y o f the average household t o a f f o r d t o own t h e i r own home.  Concern has a l s o been v o i c e d r e g a r d i n g t h e i n c r e a s i n g  c o s t o f r e n t a l accommodation and the extremely low vacancy r a t e s i n r e n t a l accommodation w i t h i n the major areas o f the P r o v i n c e .  metropolitan  T h i s concern has prompted the enactment  of The Interim Rent C o n t r o l B i l l and the r e v i s i o n o f The Landl o r d and Tenant Act, to allow f o r continued  c o n t r o l over r e n t  increases. I t has been argued t h a t , i f enough housing u n i t s were  2  p r o v i d e d , i n c r e a s e d supply would h a l t r i s i n g house p r i c e s . To many, the e s c a l a t i n g c o s t o f self-owned  and r e n t a l d w e l l i n g  u n i t s i s viewed as the symptoms o f a "housing c r i s i s "  - a  c r i s i s which i s a t t r i b u t e d t o a breakdown i n the supply  process  and a r e s u l t i n g shortage o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s . L i t t l e a t t e n t i o n i s p a i d t o the demand f o r housing w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia, the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g i t s growth i n r e c e n t years and i t s i n f l u e n c e on the housing market.  I t i s too. o f t e n  assumed t h a t everyone i s e n t i t l e d t o own t h e i r own home and t h a t t h i s demand, need o r d e s i r e , should and w i l l be met.  It  has been assumed, as Smith s t a t e s , t h a t "supply i s n e a r l y perf e c t l y e l a s t i c so t h a t someone w i l l  f i n a n c e and b u i l d a d w e l l i n g  u n i t f o r each a d d i t i o n a l f a m i l y t h a t w i l l pay the going p r i c e . The volume o f house b u i l d i n g i s assumed to^be l i m i t e d  primarily  by the number o f buyers and r e n t e r s . Purpose In l i g h t o f the concern over the q u e s t i o n of the existenceof a "housing c r i s i s " w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e a t the present an examination  o f the supply o f housing and the supply  time,  process  w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia d u r i n g the p e r i o d s 1961 t o 1971 and 1971  t o 1974 would do much to answer q u e s t i o n s as t o the e x i s t -  ence and e x t e n t o f any "housing c r i s i s " w i t h i n B r i t i s h  Columbia.  T h i s t h e s i s w i l l examine the housing stock and the r e c o r d of the housing  supply process i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n an attempt  to answer the q u e s t i o n s - Is t h e r e a c r i s i s i n supply? a housing supply shortage?  1  Is t h e r e  I f so, how d i d i t develop?  Smith, W. F. , HouA-tng: the Social avid. Economic Element*, U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , Berkeley, 1970, pages 116,  3  Method The r e c o r d o f the housing supply p r o c e s s w i t h i n  British  Columbia w i l l be examined through a study o f changes i n the housing supply and the housing stock over the p e r i o d 1961 t o 1974. 1971  The bulk o f t h i s data f o r t h i s study w i l l be from the Census o f Canada's s t a t i s t i c s on housing, 1961 t o 1971.  Information r e l a t i n g t o housing c o n s t r u c t i o n from the C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n w i l l a l s o be used t o examine the performance  o f the housing i n d u s t r y throughout the P r o v i n c e  from 1961 t o 1974. Scope Chapter I I o f the t h e s i s p r o v i d e s an overview o f r e c e n t c o n d i t i o n s i n the B r i t i s h Columbia  housing market and the  f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the concern over the e x i s t e n c e o f a "housing  crisis".  Chapter I I I provides' an examination o f the economics of housing demand and the f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the growth i n demand f o r housing w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia  i n recent years.  Chapter IV examines t h e economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f housing and how they r e l a t e t o the housing supply w i t h i n  British  Columbia. Chapter V looks a t the economics o f housing supply and the determinants of supply. Chapter VI examines housing trends and the housing r e c o r d i n B r i t i s h Columbia  over the p e r i o d 1961 t o 1974, analyses the  e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f the housing supply process and p r o v i d e s conc l u s i o n s on the study.  4  ^  CHAPTER I I  OVERVIEW - B. C. HOUSING MARKET Statements of requirements f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s are a major f e a t u r e of the r h e t o r i c surrounds d i s c u s s i o n s of housing and  new  that  housing p o l i c y .  Once  determined, f i g u r e s s i g n i f y i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n requirements are o f t e n used as a b a s i s i n surveying  each year's annual con-  struction statistics  f o r determining the housing  success or f a i l u r e .  I f c o n s t r u c t i o n exceeds requirements,  it  i s assumed t h a t housing c o n d i t i o n s  however, c o n s t r u c t i o n f a l l s  industry's  are improving.  s h o r t of the s t a t e d g o a l s , i t i s  assumed t h a t housing c o n d i t i o n s are d e t e r i o r a t i n g and "housing c r i s i s " In 1969,  is  If,  that a  developing.  the Report of theoTask Force on Housing and  Urban  Development s t a t e d t h a t the c o n s t r u c t i o n of a minimum average of 200,000 u n i t s a year between 1969  and  1973  was  allow the housing market t o keep pace w i t h new  needed to  demand, p l u s  making a t l e a s t some i n r o a d i n t o the backlog o f overcrowding, obsolescence, and Since  1969,  general  shortage of  supply.  r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n has  above the 200,000 l e v e l .  1973  was  a r e c o r d year f o r r e s i d e n t i a l  c o n s t r u c t i o n i n Canada as t o t a l d w e l l i n g the t h i r d c o n s e c u t i v e  2  year and  averaged w e l l  starts increased  for  reached a r e c o r d o f 268,529 s t a r t s ,  Rtpofit o{ tht Ta&k FoA.ee. on. Housing, 1969, page 23.  Queen's P r i n t e r , Ottawa  5  7.5 percent higher than i n 1972, w h i l e the number of s t a r t s and completions were h i g h e r than i n any p r e v i o u s year i n the h i s t o r y of  Canada (see t a b l e 1 ) . In  B r i t i s h Columbia r e c o r d l e v e l s of c o n s t r u c t i o n were a l s o  experienced i n 1973, as 37,627 s t a r t s were recorded, up 6.5 percent from 1972. to  A r e c o r d 34,604 housing u n i t s were  completed  add t o the stock of housing, and 27,112 u n i t s were under  c o n s t r u c t i o n a t year end, a l s o a r e c o r d . In  1974, however, r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y f e l l as  a r e s u l t of a s l a c k e n i n g i n economic growth and a c t i v i t y throughout of  Canada and the world.  In the f i r s t  three q u a r t e r s  1974 housing s t a r t s i n Canada were 176,023, down 10.5 percent  from 196,688 d u r i n g the same p e r i o d i n 1973..  By September 1974  the s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d annual r a t e of s t a r t s had f a l l e n t o 192,000, down from 209,100 i n August.  Housing  activity in  B r i t i s h Columbia was s u b s t a n t i a l l y lower i n t h e t h i r d q u a r t e r o f 1974 than i n the corresponding p e r i o d of 1973.  S t a r t s were  down 3 0 percent and completions were down 11 p e r c e n t .  As a  r e s u l t , the number o f u n i t s under c o n s t r u c t i o n a t the end of September 1974 was 14 percent lower than twelve months e a r l i e r . In  the f i r s t  completions  t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f 1974 s t a r t s numbered 25,312 and 26,3 05, w h i l e the number of u n i t s under c o n s t r u c t i o n  was 25,085 a t the end o f the t h i r d q u a r t e r o f 1974.  In the  urban c e n t r e s of B. C., surveyed by the C e n t r a l Morgage and Housing  Corporation  (CMHC), monthly s t a r t s i n the f i r s t  months o f 1974 t o t a l l e d 19,256 and completions  20,293.  nine But  m u l t i p l e s t a r t s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver are known t o have been u n d e r s t a t e d i n 1973.  I t i s estimated t h a t the t r u e number  TABLE 1 DWELLING 1958 -  STARTS 1973  C A N A D A  PERIOD  SINGLEDETACHED  SEMIDETACHED  1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973  104,508 92,178 67,171 7 6,430 7 4,443 77,158 77,079 75,441 70,642 72,534 , 75,339 78,404 70,749 9 8,056 115,570 131,552  10,713 10,468 9,699 11,650 10,975 7,891 8,706 7 ,924 7,281 9,939 10,114 10,373 10,826 13,751 13 ,649 13,235  BRITISH 1958 1959 1960 . 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 19 7 2 1973  Source:  ROW  APARTMENT .AND OTHER  COLUMBIA .  910 637 206 240 280 374 563 689 537 826 1,126 1,376  231 87 579 195 363 200 227 740 175 689 562 1 , 325  3,484 2,721 1,509 2,936 4 ,850 7,222 11,4 87 10,139 7,377 9,384 12,02 0 16,084  13,691  1,16 9  1,566  10,89 0  17,707 18,890 21,313  1,220 818 901  1, 803 2, 362 1, 501  14,035 • 13,247 13,912  Statictlci>  1 9 7 3,  Housing  164,632 1 4 1 ,345 108,858 125,577 130,095 148,624 165,658 166,565 134 , 474 164,123 196,878 210,415 190,528 • 2 3 3,653 249 , 914 268,529  46,954 36,791 29,687 35,633 40,935 59,680 75,118 77,894 51,551 74,2 58 10 3,383 ' 110,917 91,898 106,187 103,715 106,451  2, 457 1, 9 08 '2, 301 1, 864 3, 742 3, 895 4, 755 5, 306 5, 000 7, 392 ' 8, 042 10,721 17, 055 15, 659 16, 980 17,291  14,674 13,246 9,710 7,799 8,399 9,533 9 , 388 9 ,830 9,664 13,201 12 ,487 13,035  Canadian  TOTAL  CMHC,  tables  19,299 16 ,691 12,004 11,170. 13,892 17 , 329 21,665 21,398 17,753 24,100 26,195 31,820 27,316 34,765 35,317 3 7,627  9,  10.  7  of s t a r t s i n the f i r s t nine months o f 1973 was, approximately 13,300 i n M e t r o p o l i t a n  Vancouver.  s t a r t s were down 12 percent  On t h i s r e v i s e d b a s i s , 1974  i n Metropolitan  Vancouver and 14 3  percent  i n the nineteen  urban centres  surveyed by CMHC.  In l i g h t o f the.requirements s e t out by the Task Force on Housing and Urban Development, i t would appear t h a t , as a n a t i o n , we have been, u n t i l r e c e n t downturns i n c o n s t r u c t i o n , s a t i s f y i n g our housing requirements.  P a r a d o x i c a l l y , even though  c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new housing u n i t s has, u n t i l r e c e n t l y , been a t record  l e v e l s , claims have been made t h a t the housing develop-  ment process i n B r i t i s h Columbia has been p r o g r e s s i v e l y Much a t t e n t i o n has been given considered regarding  i n the press  t o be a "housing c r i s i s " .  strangled.  t o what i s  Concern has been v o i c e d  the low l e v e l o f vacancy r a t e s f o r r e n t a l accommoda-  t i o n , the l a c k o f c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new r e n t a l accommodation, the high c o s t s o f land and r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , and the h i g h c o s t o f self-owned accommodation w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e .  To many,  these f a c t o r s are viewed as symptoms o f a "housing c r i s i s "  - a  c r i s i s which they a t t r i b u t e t o ' a shortage o f supply. Symptoms (1) Vacancy Rates Vacancy r a t e s . f o r privately-owned r e n t a l apartments i n Metropolitan 3  4  Housing Housing  Vancouver have been d e c l i n i n g s i n c e June 1971  Statictlci, Co ftp o nation',  -  Beveridge, I . L. , The  the Supply Vlhtfilet,  page 1.  oI  Honking  ICO.  B.  C.  Region  Central  Mortgage,  and  Vancouver, September 1974, page 1. Land development PfioceAA ai> It within the GfieateK Vancouver.  abject*, Regional  Real E s t a t e Management L t d . , Vancouver 1974,  TABLE 2  VACANCY RATES IN PRIVATELY-INITIATED RENTAL APARTMENTS  ( p e r c e n t vacancy)  METRO TORONTO  2  METRO VANCOUVER  1  VANCOUVER CITY  1  METRO VICTORIA  June  Dec.  June  1963  4.0  —  4.0  —  1964  2.6  —  4.4  —  1965  1.5  —  4.0  —  4.1  —  —  1966  0.9  1.5  —  1.6  —  —  1967  1.1  1.1  —  1.1  —  --  1968  1.4  —  1.3  —  1.1  —  1969  2.4  2.1  1.2  0.8  0.8  0.7  3.2  —  1970  2.5  2.4  2.7  2.1  2.1  1.7  5.2  —  1971  2.7  3.2  4.1  2.8  3.7  2.1  . 4.1  1972  2.9  2.3  2.4  0.6  1.9  0.4  3.0  0.8  1973  1.8 .  1.4  1.0  0.4  0.6  0.2  1.4  0.3  1974  0.9  —  0.3  —  0.2  —  0.5  —  Source:  — .  •  Apartment  Vacancy  Dec.  Survey,  June  Dec.  4.3  Metro  Vancouver,  Metro  Vxctorva,  •  —  —  Apartment  . Vacancy  Survey,  June 1974, Table 3. .  —  — —  CMHC Vancouver,  June 1974, Table 1. 2  Dec.  —  3.7 •  June  . CMHC Vancouver,  2  9  when they were a t a l e v e l o f 4.1 p e r c e n t . o v e r a l l vacancy  In June 1974, t h e  r a t e f o r privately-owned r e n t a l apartments i n  M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver f e l l t o 0.3 p e r c e n t o f the 100,000 u n i t s surveyed; Housing  the lowest r a t e s i n c e C e n t r a l Mortgage and  C o r p o r a t i o n began i t s surveys f o r Vancouver i n 1963.  At t h e same time, t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e n t a l accommodation w i t h i n the C i t y o f Vancouver was even lower as a vacancy of o n l y 0.2 p e r c e n t was recorded  rate  (see Table 2 ) .  In M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a t h e s i t u a t i o n was o n l y m a r g i n a l l y b e t t e r as.the o v e r a l l vacancy  rate f o r privately-owned  apartments was 0.5 p e r c e n t in.June 1974.  T h i s r a t e was o n l y  f r a c t i o n a l l y h i g h e r than the 0.3 p e r c e n t vacancy ber 1973,  which was t h e lowest vacancy  rental  r a t e i n Decem-  r a t e experienced i n V i c -  t o r i a s i n c e t h e CMHC surveys f o r t h e area coinmenced in-19 69. The vacancy  r a t e s experienced by Vancouver and V i c t o r i a  were both w e l l below the n a t i o n a l weighted percent f o r June 1974.  average  r a t e o f 2.4  Vancouver recorded t h e lowest  vacancy  r a t e n a t i o n a l l y , 0.3 percent; w h i l e St. John's recorded 0.4 5 percent; V i c t o r i a 0.5 percent; and Toronto  0.9 p e r c e n t .  (2) Apartment C o n s t r u c t i o n Apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n i n Canada reached  i t s peak i n . 1969  as 110,917 u n i t s were s t a r t e d , r e p r e s e n t i n g almost of t h e n a t i o n ' s housing s t a r t s . B r i t i s h Columbia a l s o reached  Apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n i n  i t s peak i n 1969 as 16,084  apartment u n i t s were s t a r t e d , r e p r e s e n t i n g almost 5  53 percent  Apan.tme.nt Vacancy Survey• Metropolitan June 1974, Table 3.  Vancouver,  53 p e r c e n t CMHC,  TABLE 3  APARTMENT STARTS 1958 - 1973  (# OF UNITS) B.C. CANADA  APT. % OF TOTAL HOUSING B.C. CANADA  1958  3,484  46,959  18.0  28.5  1959  2,721  36,791  16.3  26.0 .  1960  1,509  29,687  12.6  27.2  1961  2,936  35,633  26.3  28.3  1962 -  4,830  40,935  34.9  31.5  1963  7,222  59,680  41.7  40.2  1964  11,487  75,118  52.0  45.3  1965 •  10,139  77,894  47.4  46.8  1966  7,377  51,551  41.6  38.3  1967  9,384  74,258  38.9  45.2  1968  12,020  103,383  45.9  52.5  1969  16,084  110,917  50.5  52.7  1970  10,890  91,898  39.9  . 48.2  1971  14,035  106,157  40.4  45.4  1972  13,247  103,715  37.5  41.5  1973  13,912  106,451  36.9  39.6  PERIOD  Source:  Canadian  Housing  Tables 9, 10.  Statistics  1973,  CMHC',  11  of the n a t i o n ' s housing s t a r t s .  Apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n i n  B r i t i s h Columbia a l s o reached i t s peak i n 1969 as 16,084 apartment u n i t s were s t a r t e d , 50 percent i n the Province  d u r i n g the year  o f a l l housing s t a r t s  (see Table  3).  Since 1969,  however, the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f apartments and m u l t i - u n i t d w e l l ings has f a l l e n , with t h e e x c e p t i o n c o n s t r u c t i o n has i n c r e a s e d .  o f condominiums, whose  In 1973,  Canada t o t a l l e d 106,451, 39.6 percent  apartment s t a r t s f o r of a l l dwelling  starts.  In B r i t i s h Columbia, apartment s t a r t s were down 13.5 percent from the 1969 l e v e l t o only 13,912, 36.9 percent 7 d w e l l i n g s t a r t s d u r i n g 1973. The  drop i n apartment s t a r t s was more pronounced i n Van-  couver as s t a r t s f e l l  37 percent  from 11,945 i n 1969, 67.5  percent  o f a l l s t a r t s , t o only 7,281 i n 1973, 8 t o t a l s t a r t s f o r t h e year. The  of a l l  40 percent o f  drop i n apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n , both i n terms o f number  of u n i t s and as a p r o p o r t i o n o f a l l housing s t a r t s , i s e v i d e n t from the above f i g u r e s . new  The r e d u c t i o n i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f  r e n t a l accommodation i s , however, even more pronounced than  the f i g u r e s would i n d i c a t e , as a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f a l l a p a r t -  6  Condominium s t r a t a p l a n r e g i s t r a t i o n s have r i s e n from 632 u n i t s i n 1969 t o 2,221 u n i t s i n 1973 i n Greater Vancouver, R e a l Estate Trends in Metropolitan Vancouver, Real E s t a t e Board o f Greater Vancouver, November 1974, B-6.  7  Canadian Housing 4, 9, 10.  Statistics  1973,  CMHC, Ottawa 1974,  Tables  8  Canadian 12.  Statistics  197 3,  CMHC, Ottawa 1974,  Table  Housing  12  ment and  multiple-dwelling  u n i t s now  producted f o r condominium ownership. of the  factors contributing  construction The be  w i l l be  being c o n s t r u c t e d A more complete  discussion  to the drop i n r e n t a l apartment  given i n a l a t e r  chapter.  growth i n s i g n i f i c a n c e of condominium development  can  seen through an examination of condominium r e g i s t r a t i o n s i n  M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. until  Since a s t r a t a p l a n cannot be  date of r e g i s t r a t i o n .  guide of the  s t r i c t l y comparable, but  the  strata a rough  s i g n i f i c a n c e of condominiums i n the housing market  can b e o b t a i n e d by N  to 1973,  several  i s s t a r t e d and  T h e r e f o r e , housing s t a r t s and  p l a n r e g i s t r a t i o n s are not  1968  registered  a b u i l d i n g i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y c o n s t r u c t e d , a l a g of  months occurs between the date a p r o j e c t  ium  are  comparing r e g i s t r a t i o n s i n each year, from  w i t h housing s t a r t s i n the  same y e a r s .  Condomin-  u n i t r e g i s t r a t i o n s rose d r a m a t i c a l l y  between 1968  and  to become a l a r g e segment of the market. resented 13.1,  13.7,  and  21.5  (see Table 4).  Condominiums rep-  percent of a l l housing s t a r t s i n  M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver i n the years 1971, respectively  1973  1972,  and  Condominium d w e l l i n g  been i n c r e a s i n g w h i l e the number of row  and  1973  s t a r t s have  apartment s t a r t s  have been d e c r e a s i n g . Virtually a l l single-family, condominium u n i t s are b u i l t  f o r i n d i v i d u a l ownership,  condominium u n i t s are i n c l u d e d and  semi-detached, duplex  with r e n t a l units  apartment s t a r t s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n  to separate i n d i v i d u a l l y - o w n e d u n i t s minium s t a r t s and  statistics.  added to the  but housing  Therefore,  from r e n t a l u n i t s , condo-  ( r e g i s t r a t i o n s ) should be  apartment s t a r t s and  i n row  and  s u b t r a c t e d from the  single-family  semi-  row  TABLE 4 CONDOMINIUM DEVELOPMENTS IN METROPOLITAN  VANCOUVER  1968-1973  -YEAR  ROW St ROW & CONDOMINIUM TOTAL STARTS , „ „ APART. ^«'^^^"iun CONDOMINIUMS „ „ „ i APART. REGISTRATIONS ' METRO VAN. AS % OF „ ^ o AS % OF STARTS STARTS NO.OF U N I T S STARTS m  1  n  2  19 6 8  15,690  1 0 , 0 32  64.0  102  0.7  1969  17,690  12,525  71.0  632  3.6  1970  13,437  8,605  64.0 •  954  7.1  1971  15,553  9,879  63.5  2,031  13.1  1972  16,210  8,531  52.5  2,221  13.7  1973  17,334  8,235  47.5  3,732  21.5  Source:  1  Canadlan  Housing  Statistics  1973, CMHC, p p . 6, 1 3 .  2 Real Estate Trends In Metropolitan Vancouver, 1974-75, . R e a l E s t a t e B o a r d o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r , pp. B-6, and s. w. H a m i l t o n , R . R o b e r t s , Condominium development and Ownership, R e a l E s t a t e B o a r d o f G r e a t e r Vancouver', October 1973,p.13.  TABLE 5 COMPARISON OF CONDOMINIUM REGISTRATIONS TO STARTS OF INDIVIDUALLY OWNED HOUSING UNITS 1968 - 1973  CONDOMINIUMS AS % OF NEW UNITS FOR SALE  YEAR  SINGLE FAMILY SEMI-DETACHED & DUPLEX STARTS METRO VANC.  1968  5,658  102  5,760  1969  5,165  632  5,797  10.9  1970  4,832  954  5,786  •16.'. 5  1971  5,674  2,031  7,705  26.4  1972  7,679  2,221  10,000  22.1  1973  9,049  3,732  12,831  29.1  Source:  1  CONDOMINIUM REGISTRATIONS NO. OF UNITS 2  Canadian Housing 1973, p. 12.  TOTAL UNITS FOR SALE  1.8  S t a t i s t i c s , CMHC, 1972, p. 6;  Real Estate Trends in Metropolitan Vancouver, 1974-75, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, p. B-6 and S. W. Hamilton, R. Roberts, Condominium Development and Ownership, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, od 73, p. 13.  15  detached, 1973  and duplex  starts..  Doing t h i s f o r the years 1968 t o  produces the r e s u l t s summarized i n Table 5.  Condominium  u n i t s have i n c r e a s e d from 1.8 p e r c e n t o f a l l s t a r t s o f new self-owned  u n i t s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver i n 1968 t o 29.1  percent i n 1973.  Condominium u n i t s have gained a s i g n i f i c a n t  share o f the market f o r i n d i v i d u a l l y owned u n i t s i n the Vancouver a r e a , averaging almost -26 p e r c e n t o f the market i n 1971, 9 1972,  and 1973.  Some condominiums have been o f f e r e d f o r r e n t  by t h e i r owners, but not enough t o a f f e c t the supply o f r e n t a l units. The reduced r a t e o f m u l t i p l e - u n i t apartment type c o n s t r u c t i o n , the t r e n d towards the development o f self-owned and extremely  low vacancy  r a t e s have reduced  condominium u n i t s ,  the flow o f new  r e n t a l u n i t s i n t o t h e B r i t i s h Columbia housing market i n r e c e n t years and hence the a v a i l a b i l i t y of r e n t a l accommodation w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e . (3) Land Costs R e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g l o t s have been s u b j e c t t o extreme: demand and i n f l a t i o n a r y p r e s s u r e d u r i n g the p a s t few years as l o t p r i c e s have climbed steeply.'- T h i s t r e n d has been p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t i n the Greater Vancouver area. more than quadrupled  L o t p r i c e s have  i n many areas d u r i n g t h e l a s t e i g h t y e a r s ,  as i n d i c a t e d by the p r i c e s o f t y p i c a l lots, r e p o r t e d by the Real E s t a t e Board o f Greater Vancouver 9  (see Table 6 ) .  Price  Hamilton, S. W.; Roberts, R., Condominium Devzlopmznt and Owmn&hlp, Real E s t a t e Board o f Greater Vancouver, October 1973, page 12.  >  TABLE 6 TYPICAL RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES ~  METROPOLITAN VANCOUVER  1954 - 1974  TYPICAL FRONTAGE  1954  1958  1961  VANCOUVER PT. GREY GRASDV1EU  33-50 33  2200/3350 1150/1750  4800/7300 3500/5300  4300/4700  COqulTVAM  60 - 75  360/450  780/975  2500/3800  1963-64  5700  1967  9500/12500 6000/7500  .  1969  •  1970  1971  1972  1  9  7  3  „ „  12000/17500 7500/10000  15000/20000 10000/14000  15000/20000 11000/13000 •  15000/22500 11000/14000  16500/25000 13000/15000  25000/35000 20000/25000  3600(5/35000 30000/35000  8500/11500  9860/13000  10500/14500  11000/16500  20000/25000  26000/35000  10000/13000  10000/14000  12500/18000  2 3 000 / 300 00  ' 36000/40000  3000/3800  5500/7000  7500/10000  6800/7500  8000/8500  8500/10000  9500/12500  3500/4000  5500/6500  6500/7000  7500/9000  8500/9500  10000/11000  12500/13500  17500/18500  25000/28500  1250/1750  3000/4600  4000/500O  5500/6500  5500/6500  7000/8000  9500/11500  14500/16000  20000/28000  N.VAN, D.H. UPPER DEL8R00K  1968  , 66  1600  4000  RICIC:O;:D KEU HOME AREAS SURREY H.  Sources:  66 65-66  600/700 950  2000/2100 1000  3500/4000  Real Estate Trends in Metropolitan Vancouver, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Various Years: 1959, 1964, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972-73, 1973-74, 1974-75.  en  17  i n f l a t i o n , however, was even more pronounced d u r i n g 1973 and  1974 as p r i c e s i n many areas doubled due t o the high demand  f o r housing i n Greater (4)  Construction  Vancouver.  Costs-  As b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l p r i c e s and union wage r a t e s are f a i r l y uniform throughout the P r o v i n c e ,  increases  i n r e s i d e n t i a l con-  s t r u c t i o n c o s t s can be seen through an examination o f r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t index and c o s t f i g u r e s compiled by the Real E s t a t e Board o f Greater weighting o f labour  Vancouver.  and m a t e r i a l s  The index r e p r e s e n t s  a  and thereby shows c o s t  trends  r a t h e r than p a r t i c u l a r changes i n p r i c e s o f m a t e r i a l s o r wage r a t e s . ( s e e Table 7 ) . R e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s over the p e r i o d 1963-1972 rose s t e a d i l y and moderately a t an average of 4.9 percent year, as c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s rose square f o o t f o r a standard  a  from $10.45 t o $16.02 per  120 0 square f o o t bungalow.  How-  ever, i n more r e c e n t years c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s have r i s e n a t a much more r a p i d r a t e , over 10 percent  per annum.  During the  p e r i o d from the Summer o f 1972 t o the F a l l o f 1973, the r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t index jumped d r a m a t i c a l l y by 19.4 as c o s t s rose t o $19.22 per square f o o t , s i g n i f i c a n t l y the c o s t s o f home c o n s t r u c t i o n . c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s continued  increasing  The r a p i d e s c a l a t i o n i n  during  1974,  as c o n s t r u c t i o n  rose t o an average o f $23.24 per square f o o t . these i n c r e a s e s ,  percent,  costs  As a r e s u l t o f  the t o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t f o r a standard  1200  square f o o t bungalow has r i s e n from $12,540 i n 1963 t o $27,888 i n June 1974, a 122 percent  i n c r e a s e over t h a t  period.  TABLE 7 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COSTS - STANDARD BUNGALOWS VANCOUVER AREA 1963 - 1973  COST INDEX Index (1963=100)  Annual Change %  COST PER SQUARE FOOT 1,200 sq. f t . $  1,400 sq. f t . $  CONSTRUCTION COST 1,200 sq. : $  1963' 1964  100.0 104.3  -0.2 +4.3  10.45 10.70  10.16 10.25  12,540 12,720  1965 1966 1967 1968 1969  107.3 113.2 116.8 128.1 141.0 135.7 137.5 138.2 153.3 183.0 224.3  +3.9 +5.5 +3.2 +9.7 +8.0  10.90 11.67 12.49 13.55 14.64  10.60 11.45 12.25 13.28 14.35  13,080 14,004 14,988 16,260 17,568  14.37 14.45 16.02^ 19.22** 23.24  14.03 14.12 15.56 19.05** 22.80  17,244 17,340 19,224 23,064 27,888  1970 1971 1972 1973 1974  Spring Fall  Summer Fall Fall  -0.6 +0.5 +10.9 +19.4 +22.6  A weighted index f o r r e s i d e n t i a l construction which allows f o r both materials and labour. Additional features such as washers and dryers add from $1.50 to $2.00 per square foot to the costs shown above. The standard double carport w i l l add a further $1.00 to $1.20. Source:  Real Estate Trends in Metropolitan Vancouver> 1974-1975, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver, November, 1974, p. A-7. t  TABLE 8  RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION INPUT PRICE INDEXES (1971 = 100)  CANADA PERIOD  TOTAL  MATERIALS  LABOUR  1971 J/F/M A/M/J J/A/S O/N/D  100.0 .96.4 98.8 101.7 103.0  100.0 97.1 98.8 101.9 102.2  100.0 95.2 98.9 101.4 104.4  1972 J/F/M A/M/J J/A/S O/N/D  110.1 105.4 108.5 111.6 114.7  109.8 105.2 107.8 111.3 114.6 .  110.6 105.8 109.9 112.2 114.9  109.2 . 105.0 108.0 110.0 114.2  1973  123.3 118.0 122.8 124.7 127.5  124.0 118.7 124.1 125.3 128.1  121.8 116.7 120.5 123.6 126.4  121.3 117.9 121.2 121.5 124.5  J/F/M A/M/J J/A/S O/N/D  . Source:  Canadian Housing Statistics 1973, March 1973, Table 114, p. 90.  B.C.  100.0 95.9 99.1 101.5 103.6  CMHC, Ottawa,  20  The  rapid increase i n r e s i d e n t i a l construction costs i n  recent years can a l s o be seen from C e n t r a l Mortgage and Corporation's  Residential Building Construction  Input P r i c e  Indexes, as the B r i t i s h Columbia index rose over 24 between 1971  and  1973  Housing  percent  (see Table 8).  (5) Cost of Self-Owned Accommodation The  c o s t of self-owned r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation throughout  B r i t i s h Columbia has  i n c r e a s e d d r a m a t i c a l l y over the l a s t decade,  but at no time have i n c r e a s e s been as r a p i d as w i t h i n the few  last  years. The  i n c r e a s i n g values  of r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y  can be  seen  through an examination of the average s a l e s p r i c e s f o r m u l t i p l e l i s t i n g service  (MLS)  MLS  source of s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n  i s the only  s a l e s w i t h i n the Greater  e x i s t i n g house p r i c e s i n a l l areas of Greater ever, t h i s source, due  to i t s compostion and  Vancouver  area.  a v a i l a b l e on  Vancouver. other  How-  restrict-  i o n s , does not give a completely t r u e d e s c r i p t i o n of average' house p r i c e s .  The  average m u l t i p l e l i s t i n g  s a l e s value  l a t e s to a l l t r a n s a c t i o n s which take p l a c e on MLS, l a n d , r e s i d e n t i a l u n i t s , and ties) .  commercial and  I t tends to be a l i t t l e higher  p r i c e " due  re-  (vacant  i n d u s t r i a l proper-  than the  "average house  to the higher value of commercial and  industrial  p r o p e r t i e s and  because r e s i d e n t i a l s a l e s r e p r e s e n t  between  and  of a l l MLS  Vancouver  85 percent  area.  MLS  s a l e s are a l s o only a segment of a l l r e a l  s a l e s i n the market. average MLS general  s a l e s w i t h i n the Greater  estate  However, w i t h these r e s e r v a t i o n s  s a l e s p r i c e s can be used as an i n d i c a t o r of  t r e n d i n house p r i c e s .  average home p r i c e under MLS  According  80  i n mind, the  to t h i s source,  the  experienced a r a t h e r slow growth  21  between 1960  and  about $14,000. increase  and  $24,000.  1965.  In 1965  Between 1966  and  1969  Then there was  average MLS  l a s t i n g to  $13,105 to $57,242 and p e r c e n t per  By June  j u s t over $57,000  MLS  1974,  and  June 1974,  rising  1974  (see  from  i n c r e a s i n g at an average r a t e of  annum over the p e r i o d .  However, i n more  11.68  recent  s a l e s p r i c e s have r i s e n at a much more r a p i d rate-,  i n c r e a s i n g at an average of 18.5 31.9  p e r c e n t i n 1973,  p e r c e n t per and  37.9  should be remembered t h a t , as MLS  annum between  p e r c e n t i n 1974.  sales contain  industrial  commercial property  MLS  s a l e s average can only be used as an i n d i c a t o r of the  s a l e s , as w e l l as r e s i d e n t i a l s a l e s ,  t r e n d i n house p r i c e s , not Since A p r i l 1973,  owned r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation.  have been c a l c u l a t e d ,  decreased, the average s a l e s p r i c e under MLS on a q u a r t e r l y b a s i s . second q u a r t e r  of 1974  has  (see Table 10).  has  increased  From the.second q u a r t e r the average MLS  MLS  of  residential  s a l e s p r i c e rose from $34,100 to $52,536, a 54 p e r c e n t year,  self-  Even though there have been  some months i n which the average s a l e s p r i c e under MLS  i n j u s t one  general  separate f i g u r e s i s o l a t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l  g i v i n g a more a c c u r a t e i n d i c a t i o n of the r i s i n g c o s t of  t o the  the  a c t u a l changes i n house p r i c e s .  s a l e s i n Greater Vancouver under MLS  dramatically  1967 Again,  and  1973  the  s a l e s p r i c e i n the Greater Vancouver area  more than quadrupled between 1960  it  rapid  9).  The  and  a rather  when p r i c e s s t a r t e d to shoot up. s a l e s was  was  shot up to about  a f a i r l y stable period  the average p r i c e f o r a l l MLS  years,  there was  the average home v a l u e under MLS  b e g i n n i n g of 1971  Table  the average house p r i c e  increase  r e s i d e n t i a l average s a l e s  TABLE 9 AVERAGE MLS  SALES PRICES FOR GREATER VANCOUVER 1960 - 1974  YEAR  YEARLY % INCREASE  1960  $13,105  1961  $12,348  -5.7  1962  $12,518  +  1.3  1963  $12,636  +  1.0  1964  $13,202  +  4.5  $13,964  +  5.7  1966  $15,200  +  8.9  1967  $17,836  + 17 . 2  1968  $20,595  + 15.5  1969  $23 ,939  + 16 . 2  1970  $24,239  +  1.3  1971  $26,471  +  9.2  1972  $31,465  + 18.9  1973  $41,505  + 31.9  1974  $57,242  + 37.9  1965  June  AVERAGE MLS SALES PRICE  •  Source:  ;  Real  Estate  Board  of Greater  Vancouver.  Average Sale P r i c e s i n the Greater Vancouver area f o r the years 1960-1974 c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g d o l l a r volume by number o f s a l e s T h i s w i l l show t h e t r e n d o n l y , b e c a u s e t h e d o l l a r volume i s b a s e d on a l l t h e m u l t i p l e l i s t i n g s s o l d t h r o u g h t h e R e a l E s t a t e B o a r d of G r e a t e r Vancouver i n t h a t p e r i o d , which does i n c l u d e b u s i n e s s and c o m m e r c i a l s a l e s .  FIGURE 1 M.L.S.  A V E R A G E  P R I C E  R A N G E  A V E R A G E M . L . S . T R A N S A C T I O N P R I C E S IN T H E G R E A T E R V A N C O U V E R A R E A , 1961 - 7 4 , C A L C U L A T E D B Y D I V I D I N G T H E D O L L A R V O L U M E O F A L L RESIDENTIAL, BUSINESS AND COMMERCIAL SALES THROUGH T H E MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE O F T H E REAL E S T A T E BOARD O F GREATER VANCOUVER BY T H E NUMBER O F S A L E S . 6 0  -  55  -  5 0 -  4 5  -  4 0  -  35  -  3 b  —  25  -  20  -  W Q 2 CO  D  0 I  h  2 to  < J J  0 Q  1.5  -  ' IO 1961  i 6 2  i 63  -j 6 4  i 6 5  r 6 6  T 67  1 63  ••—i 6 9  1 TO  1 71  • — i — 72  :  1 73  Source:  Real  i 74 J U N E  Y E A R S  LOGARITHMIC  —  SCALE  Estate.  Tie.nd6  In  Me.t/iopoli£a.n Vancouver,  November 1974, page 29.  7 974- 75,  '  '  24  p r i c e s have been g e n e r a l l y lower than the average MLS  sales  p r i c e f o r the same p e r i o d .  In June 1974,  MLS  r e s i d e n t i a l s a l e s p r i c e was  $3,000 lower than the average  s a l e s p r i c e , which i n c l u d e d a l l types of The  average MLS  s o l e l y to the Greater  s a l e s p r i c e f o r a l l MLS  Columbia i n c r e a s e d  258  percent  between 1963  the ease i n Vancouver, average MLS  out the Province In 1974  alone,  and  percent  4 3 percent  37 and  The  British July  1974;  annually.  As  s a l e s p r i c e s through-  have i n c r e a s e d more r a p i d l y i n r e c e n t  the average MLS  years.  s a l e s p r i c e s f o r the Okanagan,  Westminster and V i c t o r i a Real E s t a t e Boards i n c r e a s e d and  has  Vancouver area.  sales within  i n c r e a s i n g a t an average r a t e of 12.6  48,  r e s p e c t i v e l y ; compared w i t h i n c r e a s e s of  26 percent  MLS  property.  trend of r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g r e a l e s t a t e p r i c e s  not been c o n f i n e d  was  the average  r e s p e c t i v e l y i n . 1973  (see Table  36 15,  11).  Over the l a s t ten years those w i t h an e q u i t y p o s i t i o n i n the r e a l e s t a t e market i n Greater  Vancouver have seen t h e i r  a s s e t s double or even t r i p l e , however, these l a r g e i n wealth are to a c e r t a i n extent t h a t has  increased  i n value  illusionary —  increases  the house  from $20,000 to $50,000 has  meaning t o a f a m i l y or household u n l e s s , upon s e l l i n g , do not r e - e n t e r  the same housing market.  disadvantage d u r i n g who  these c u r r e n t  Those who  they  are at a  i n f l a t i o n a r y times are  are e n t e r i n g the market and who  and monthly c a r r y i n g c o s t s i n order  must pay to  buy  those  l a r g e down payments t h e i r own  Although i n d u s t r y spokesmen f e e l t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l values  little  have reached t h e i r peak, or at least/remained  home. property relatively  TABLE 10  MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY AVERAGES OF RESIDENTIAL SALES FOR GREATER VANCOUVER THROUGH MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE  'l' AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MLS SALE $  QUARTERLY % INCREASE  1973 $ 33,638 3 A, 059 34,603  APRIL MAY JUNE 2nd QUARTER  34,100 39:, 015 40,549 43,827  JULY • AUGUST SEPTEMBER 3rd QUARTER  39,908  +17.0  47,636 42,417 44,129  OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 4 t h QUARTER  44,694  +11.99  1974 47,316 46,144 51,615  JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH 1 s t QUARTER  2nd QUARTER  Source:  + 8.2  53,617 49,921 54,254  APRIL MAY JUNE  JULY AUGUST  48,374  52,536  + 8.6  54,380 52,850  R e a l E s t a t e Board o f G r e a t e r Vancouver.  TABLE 11 AVERAGE DOLLAR VALUE PER TRANSACTION — M.L.S. SYSTEM FOR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA REAL ESTATE BOARDS  BRITISH COLUMBIA  1963  1964  1965  1966  1967  1968  1969  1970  . 1971  1972  1973  1974*  11,796  12,424  12,905  13,950  16,133  18,425  20,852  21,100  22,813  25,741  31,665  42,22]  +5.3  +3.8  +8.1  +15.6  +14.2  +12.8  -23  13,203 13,330 9,324 11,661  13,965 12,531 9,879 12,386  15,200 14,100 10,783 13,144 11,738 15,657  17,836 16,138 12,205 15,250 13,108 14,128  20,596 16,329 14,936 17,624 13,519 16,129  % INCREASE - B.C. VANCOUVER OKANAGAN WESTMINSTER . VICTORIA VANCOUVER ISLAND CARIBOO CHILLIWACK KAMLOOPS KOOTENAY NORTHWESTERN  July 1974  12,637 11,016 9,420 11,547 — —  —  15,857  —  17,803  —  —  —  —  — ——  —  • ——  ——  Source:  11,635 —  — —  11,538 —  —  . —  23,939 16,544 17,425 22,606 14,301 15,947  —  :  12,637  +13.2  — —  — .  16,774  15,368  ••  ——•  +1.2 24,239 16,534 18,939 22,187 14,760 14,238 •  — —  13,422  +8.11 26,472 17,994 20,722 23,620 15,681 15,868 — —  16,117 15,114  31,465 19,124 25,412 25,610 16,031 20,016 18,477 —  17,415 16,718  41,505 22,017 34,939 32,374 18,268 23,164 25,224 28,446 23,049 18,898  +33 57,24: 32,596 47,36! 46,502 23,67: 29,60f —  34.30C 24,602 25,59^  The Canadian Real Estate Association.  to  27  s t a b l e d u r i n g the second and t h i r d q u a r t e r s  o f 1974; the p r i c e  i n c r e a s e s o f r e c e n t years have r a i s e d questions  as t o the  a b i l i t y o f low and middle income f a m i l i e s t o a f f o r d t o buy t h e i r own homes.  Even though house p r i c e s a r e a t h i s t o r i c a l l y  high r a t e s , houses continue t o be s o l d , and many t o low and middle income f a m i l i e s .  None the l e s s , t o some, the h i g h  p r i c e o f housing c h a l l e n g e s occupier  the Canadian i d e a l o f the owner-  home, and t h i s c h a l l e n g e  i s viewed as a c r i s i s .  What i s a Housing C r i s i s ? Housing and the adequate p r o v i s i o n o f housing u n i t s i s an important emotional and p o l i t i c a l i s s u e w i t h i n our s o c i e t y . I t i s g e n e r a l l y considered  t h a t "every Canadian should be  e n t i t l e d t o c l e a n warm s h e l t e r as a matter of b a s i c human right".^®  When we f a i l t o p r o v i d e  s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s of  housing, when demand exceeds supply,  and when household form-  a t i o n , both f a m i l y and non-family, exceeds c o n s t r u c t i o n o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s , i t i s g e n e r a l l y considered  t o be a time o f  "Housing C r i s i s " . To some, the low vacancy r a t e s , the low l e v e l s o f apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n , the high c o s t o f land and c o n s t r u c t i o n , and the h i g h p r i c e s o f r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation, d e s c r i b e d  above,  t h a t have been experienced w i t h i n the B r i t i s h Columbia housing market i n recent y e a r s ,  are considered  t o be the symptoms o f a  housing c r i s i s .  To them, market c o n d i t i o n s p o i n t t o a shortage  i n the supply:of  r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation.  10  The term "Housing  Report oI the Federal Task Force on Housing and Urban Veve.lopmQ.nt, C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n , Ottawa 1969, page 22.  C r i s i s " has become synonmyous w i t h a shortage i n housing supply. All  shortages are r e l a t i v e to some standard; housing  shortages are o f t e n r e l a t e d to household  formation.  It is  assumed t h a t each f a m i l y , group of people, or i n d i v i d u a l person should occupy a separate d w e l l i n g u n i t i f they so desire.  The s h a r i n g of d w e l l i n g s by two or more f a m i l i e s ,  commonly known as "doubling up",  i s c o n s i d e r e d to be c h a r a c t e r -  i s t i c of p e r i o d s o f extreme housing shortages. does not grow as f a s t as household are s a i d to develop.  I f supply  formation, supply  shortages  T h i s , however, i g n o r e s the a b i l i t y o f . t h e  e x i s t i n g stock t o s a t i s f y the needs of new  households  for  accommodation. There i s always a need f o r more housing t o r e p l a c e the o l d and substandard houses and thereby improve the q u a l i t y i n c r e a s e the q u a n t i t y of the housing stock. needed to keep pace w i t h household be obtained a t a p r i c e .  formation.  Housing  and  i s also  But i t can only  Unless households'demand can be made  e f f e c t i v e , a housing shortage has no economic s i g n i f i c a n c e . Economic shortages, as d e f i n e d by Pennance and Gray"*" , are 1  r e l a t i v e t o some l e v e l of c o s t s and p r i c e s and r e f e r to s i t u a t i o n s of market imbalance  where e f f e c t i v e demand exceeds  s u p p l i e s forthcoming a t the p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e , as would occur w i t h the demand f o r r e n t a l accommodation under r e n t c o n t r o l . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , an economic shortage c o u l d occur i n a market i n  11  Pennance, F., Gray, H., "Housing Shortage: F a c t or F i c t i o n " Building, The B u i l d e r s L i m i t e d , London, March 17, 1967, page 104.  29  which, although p r i c e has i n c r e a s e d to achieve a  temporary  balance between demand and supply, i t i s c o n s i d e r e d h i g h i n r e l a t i o n t o a "normal"  p r i c e t h a t would p r e v a i l when s u p p l i e s  had been a b l e to i n c r e a s e over a longer p e r i o d .  In t h i s  case  shortages e x i s t when normal p r i c e i s used as a benchmark. I t has been s a i d t h a t the "adequacy of the housing market i s judged by i t s a b i l i t y t o respond to the demands made on i t , t h a t i s , by the degree  to which i t i s able to p r o v i d e i n d i v i d -  u a l s and f a m i l i e s w i t h the type of housing t h a t they seek a t a 12 c o s t they can a f f o r d "  - the assumption  being t h a t a l l people,  r e g a r d l e s s of income, should have housing t h a t conforms t o prevailing Housing  standards. shortages of t h i s type w i l l e x i s t as l o n g as t h e r e  are people w i t h i n s u f f i c i e n t income to a f f o r d standard housing. T h i s , however, should not be c o n s i d e r e d to be a housing nor a matter of market inadequacy,  but a problem  crisis  of income  d i s t r i b u t i o n t o be-" s o l v e d through s o c i a l a s s i s t a n c e programmes; not market i n t e r v e n t i o n . In  a non-stable housing market, w i t h r a p i d l y  escalating  house p r i c e s and r e n t l e v e l s , people look t o supply f a c t o r s the cause of the problem. u n i t s were produced, prices.  I t i s argued t h a t i f enough housing  i n c r e a s e d s u p p l i e s would prevent  rising  Such a t t e n t i o n to supply, however, i g n o r e s such  f a c t o r s as p o p u l a t i o n and income growth, governmental and numerous other f a c t o r s promoting 12  as  incentives,  h i g h l e v e l s o f housing  Wonklng Vape.A.6: Volume. 1, (b) "Housing Supply" , O n t a r i o Task Force on Housing, P r o v i n c e of O n t a r i o , June 1973, page 1.  demand.  I t a l s o i g n o r e s the a b i l i t y o r c a p a c i t y o f the housing  i n d u s t r y t o i n c r e a s e the p r o d u c t i o n o f housing Through an examination  of housing market c o n d i t i o n s ,  demand and supply, throughout 1961  units. both  the P r o v i n c e over the p e r i o d s  t o 1971 and 1971 t o 1974, t h i s t h e s i s w i l l i n v e s t i g a t e the  housing supply process i n an attempt  t o t e s t the h y p o t h e s i s :  Is t h e r e a shortage o f housing supply w i t h i n the B r i t i s h market a t the p r e s e n t time?  I f so, by what d e f i n i t i o n ?  Columbi  31  APPENDIX TO CHAPTER I I  RELIABILITY OF AVERAGE MLS MLS  SALES PRICES  s a l e s data i s o f t e n used as a g e n e r a l i n d i c a t i o n of  the trends i n r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , even though  MLS  13 r e p r e s e n t s only a p o r t i o n of a l l s a l e s . reliability i t was  of MLS  In a study  of the  s a l e s of r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y i n Vancouver,  shown t h a t MLS  data was  not c o n s i s t e n t l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e  of  a l l r e s i d e n t i a l sales.  In the study, a 100 p e r c e n t  sample  of  s a l e s of s i n g l e - f a m i l y r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y under MLS  was  compared to a 100 percent sample of a l l arm's l e n g t h s i n g l e family r e s i d e n t i a l sales.  Data was  o b t a i n e d from the M u l t i p l e  L i s t i n g S e r v i c e of Greater Vancouver and Data was  c o l l e c t e d f o r f o u r areas:  from T e e l a  Reports.  Vancouver West, Vancouver  E a s t , West Vancouver, and North Vancouver; and covered periods:  the t h i r d q u a r t e r of 1970,  the t h i r d q u a r t e r of 1971,  the f i r s t q u a r t e r of  1971,  and the second q u a r t e r of 1973.  the a n a l y s i s the means and medians of MLS  In  and T e e l a s a l e s (the  market) of r e a l e s t a t e were compared w i t h i n each area period.  four  A d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of the method and  and  statistical  a n a l y s i s of the study i s beyond the scope of t h i s paper, but Tables 12 and 13 p r e s e n t a comparison of the mean and median 13  Hamilton, S. W., " M u l t i p l e L i s t i n g Data as an I n d i c a t o r of Real E s t a t e Market Behavior", an unpublished paper, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1974. T e e l a Reports r e p o r t a l l r e a l e s t a t e s a l e s recorded by the B r i t i s h Columbia Land R e g i s t r y O f f i c e f o r s e l e c t e d areas of M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver.  r e s i d e n t i a l s a l e s p r i c e s f o r MLS and T e e l a  (the market) f o r  each area by p e r i o d . The  r e s u l t s o f the study i n d i c a t e d t h a t m u l t i p l e  s e r v i c e data i s n o t c o n s i s t e n t l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e  listing  o f the g e n e r a l  l e v e l of single-family r e s i d e n t i a l sales p r i c e s .  From an  examination o f the means and medians by area and by p e r i o d i t i s r e a d i l y apparent t h a t n e i t h e r the mean nor the median of the MLS data i s c o n s i s t e n t l y above o r below the market The  data.  maximum d e v i a t i o n o f the MLS median from the market  median was 22.2 p e r c e n t ,  w h i l e the minimum was zero.  The  maximum d e v i a t i o n o f the MLS mean from the market was 14.8 percent,  w h i l e the minimum was zero.  noted t h a t d e v i a t i o n s negative,  However, i t must be  i n both cases were both p o s i t i v e and  so t h e maximum range o f t h e d e v i a t i o n was 2 8.7  cent i n the case o f the median and 34.4 percent  per-  i n the case o f  the mean; a s i z e a b l e range o f e r r o r . Two s t a t i s t i c a l approaches were used, the Chi-Squared t e s t and  the Kolmogorov-Smirnov t e s t .  Both t e s t s showed t h a t the  MLS data was n o t c o n s i s t e n t l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e  o f the market.  T h i s does not mean t h a t the MLS data i s not u s e f u l as a convenient  and r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e i n d i c a t o r o f market trends  over  the long run; however, i t does i n d i c a t e t h a t over the s h o r t run MLS data may d i f f e r from market p r i c e  levels.  33  TABLE 12 MEAN MLS AND TEELA RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICES BY AREA AND PERIOD  _  „,  MLS X/TEELA X BY AREA BY PERIOD  SALES PRICES IN DOLLARS  PERIOD  AREA W  29,954/ 32,048 93.5%  30,250/ 30,786 98.3%  32,319/ 34,330 94.1%  45,016/ 43,509 103.5%  VE  19,560/ 20,256 96.6%  20,156/ 20,796 96.9%  21,769/ 21,390 101.8%  30,378/ 30,320 122.0%  WV  43,551/ 42,346 102.8%  43,871/ 39,535 111.0%  41,909/  60,036/ 52,302 114.8%  25,835/ 37,084 104.7%  26,888/ 27,482 97.8%  28,658/. 29,634 96.7%  NV  VW VE WV NV  = = = =  Vancouver West Vancouver East West Vancouver North Vancouver  41,335 101.4%  Period Period Period Period  1: 2: 3: 4:  3rd Quarter 1st Quarter 3rd Quarter 2nd Quarter  30,818/ 38,326 80.4%  1970 1971 1971 1973  TABLE 13  MEDIAN MLS AND TEELA RESIDENTIAL SALES PRICES BY AREA AND PERIOD  MLS MEDIAN/TEELA MEDIAN  SALES PRICES IN DOLLAP.S  PERIOD AREA VW  28,500/ 28,500 100.0%  26,900/ 27,500 97.8%  29,000/ 31,000 93.5%  43,000/ 40,000 107.5%  VE .  18,500/ 18,500 100.0%  19,500/ 19,000 102.6%  21,000/  29,250/ 28,500 102.6%  40,000/ 40,000  40,000/ 36,000  41,350/ 40,000 103.4%  61,000/ 49,900  27,500/ 29,000 94.8%  41,500/ 38,000 109.2%  WV  100.0%  NV  26,500/ 26,600 99.6%  VWVE WV NV  111.1%  26,650/ 28,000 95.2%  Vancouver West Vancouver East West Vancouver North Vancouver  Period Period Period Period  20,000 105.0%  1 2 3 4  3rd 1st 3rd 2nd  Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter  122.2%  1970 1971 1971 1973  35  CHAPTER I I I  DEMAND FOR  HOUSING  Housing i s most c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y a n e c e s s i t y , as i t can be assumed, q u i t e reasonably, t h a t each f a m i l y or i n d i v i d u a l wishes to have a separate housing u n i t . been the d e s i r e of Canadians to own family dwelling  on i t s own  T r a d i t i o n a l l y , i t has  t h e i r own  home, a s i n g l e -  l o t i n the suburbs.  The  home owner-  s h i p i d e a l i s s t r o n g , but the high c o s t of housing i s c h a l l e n g ing  the continuance of t h i s  ideal.  Housing Need and Demand There i s an important d i s t i n c t i o n to be made between the terms "need" and defined  "market or e f f e c t i v e demand".  housing need as  "the extent  Needleman  has  to which the q u a n t i t y  and  q u a l i t y of e x i s t i n g accommodation f a l l s s h o r t of t h a t to provide  required  each household or person i n the p o p u l a t i o n ,  t i v e of a b i l i t y to pay  or of p a r t i c u l a r p e r s o n a l  irrespec-  preferences, 14  with accommodation of a s p e c i f i e d minimum standard  and  above".  Need i m p l i e s a s u b j e c t i v e judgement, independent of the market p l a c e , as to the q u a n t i t y and  q u a l i t y of housing t h a t should  consumed by an i n d i v i d u a l or household and, ent of e f f e c t i v e demand and  be  as such, i s independ-  a c t u a l consumption.  Housing demand i s the number of u n i t s t h a t w i l l  be  absorbed by the market a t a s p e c i f i c p r i c e .  Housing demand i s  14  Staples  Needleman, L., The. Economic* London, 1965, page 18.  oj Homing,  Press,  36  the number of housing u n i t s t h a t w i l l be absorbed at- a: . s p e c i f i c p r i c e .  by the market  Demand, by d e f i n i t i o n , must be e f f e c t i v e .  E f f e c t i v e demand i s market p l a c e demand, purchases  which con-  sumers have both the d e s i r e and the economic means t o make. Demand i s what i s experienced i n the market p l a c e , what a c t u a l l y happens; w h i l e need r e p r e s e n t s a judgement  independent 15  of the market p l a c e , what observers f e e l should happen.  As  such, demand and need are not o f t e n c o n s i d e r e d t o be e q u a l .  In  times o f economic d e p r e s s i o n there i s no r e d u c t i o n i n need but a marked r e d u c t i o n i n the l e v e l o f e f f e c t i v e demand, as people cannot  a f f o r d t o make l a r g e expenditures on housing.  In times  of economic boom, though the l e v e l o f need may not r i s e ,  there  may be a g r e a t i n c r e a s e i n market a c t i v i t y as households  have  the money t o make demand e f f e c t i v e . " ^ Housing  demand r e l a t e s t o both demand f o r the e x i s t i n g  stock and i n c r e m e n t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n .  The d i s t i n c t i o n between  "stock demand" and " i n c r e m e n t a l demand" d e a l s w i t h demand f o r housing  i n t o t a l , which i s met from e x i s t i n g stock p l u s new  c o n s t r u c t i o n , as opposed t o demand simply f o r new housing. Since housing i s a durable commodity, demand f o r housing a t any one time i s met from the e x i s t i n g stock and not by the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new d w e l l i n g s . 15  Ratcliff,  R. U. , Uftban land  I f the volume of e x i s t i n g Economics,  McGraw-Hill,  New  York 1949, page 89. 16  Smith, W.  F., Aspects  oj  Housing  demand,  University  of  C a l i f o r n i a P r i n t i n g Department, Berkeley 1966, page 1.  37  housing  o f f e r e d a t a given p r i c e i s i n s u f f i c i e n t t o s a t i s f y the,  aggregate demand, the d i f f e r e n c e i s the e f f e c t i v e demand f o r new construction. Determinants o f Housing Demand The major determinants l a t i o n growth,  o f housing  demand are:  (2) income and employment p a t t e r n s ,  (1) popu(3) p r i c e s  and r e n t s , (4) c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s , and, (5) consumer p r e f e r e n c e s . (1) P o p u l a t i o n Growth B r i t i s h Columbia has experienced  r a p i d p o p u l a t i o n growth.  Between 1961 and 1971 p o p u l a t i o n grew 34.1 percent 1,629,082 t o 2,184,621 (see Table 14). decades B r i t i s h Columbia has experienced  from  For the l a s t  four  a h i g h e r annual  average r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n growth than Canada, North America and the world  (see Table 15).  T h i s high r a t e o f growth has  c o n t r i b u t e d t o the high demand f o r accommodation w i t h i n the Province i Much o f B r i t i s h Columbia's high r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n growth can be a t t r i b u t e d t o the l a r g e number o f migrants from other p r o v i n c e s and c o u n t r i e s .  From 1950 t o 1970, m i g r a t i o n  account-  ed f o r almost 59 percent o f the p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the P r o v i n c e , while n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e population)  ( b i r t h s - deaths i n r e s i d e n t  accounted f o r only 41 percent o f the p o p u l a t i o n  17 growth.  .17  In more r e c e n t years n e t m i g r a t i o n has i n c r e a s e d  ¥oh.ecai>t o & Population  Gnowth  in B. C. to the yzaft 2.0 00 ,  Government o f B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a 1971, page 7.  TABLE 14; POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, AND AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD FOR CANADA AND PROVINCES  H 0U S E H 0 L D s  P 0 P U LA T I 0N  PROVINCE AND MUNICIPALITY  CANADA  %  % 1961  1971  1966  18 ,238,247  CHANGE  1961-71  20,014,880  21,568,311  18.3  AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD  CHANGE  , 1961  1966  1971  1961-71  1961  1966 1971  4,554,736  5, 180,473  6,041,302  32.6  3.9  3.7  3.5  87,940  96,632  110,476  25.6  5.0  5.0  4.6  PROVINCE NEWFOUNDLAND  45 7,853  493,396  522,104  1.4.0  P.E.I.  104,629  108,535  111,641  6.7  23,942  25,360  27,898  16.5  4.2  4.2  3.9  NOVA SCOTIA  737,007  756,039  788,960  7.0  175,341  185,245  208,422  18.9  4.0  4.0  3.7  NEW BRUNSWICK  597,936  616,788  634,557  6.1  : 132,715  141,761  158,100  19.1  4.4  4.2  3.9  QUEBEC  5 ,259,211  5,780,845  6,027,764  14.6  1,191,469  1,605,747  34.8  4.2  4.0  3.7  ONTARIO  6,236,092  6,960,870  7,703,106  23.5  1,640,881  1,389,115 876,545  2,228,160  35.8  3.7  3.6  3.4  MANITOBA  921,686  963,066  988,247  7.2  239,754  259,280  288,722  20.4  3.7  3.6  3.3  SASKATCHEWAN  925,181  955,344  926,242  0.1  245,424  260,822  267,844  9.1  3.6  3i6  3.4  ALBERTA  1 ,331,944  1,463,203  1,627,874  22.2  349,816  393,707  464,943  32.9  3,7  3.6  3.4  B.C.  1 ,629,082  1,873,674  2,184,621  34.1  459,534  543,075  668,303  45.4  3.4  3.3  3.2  37,626  43,120  53,195  41.4  7,920  8,931  12,687  60.2  4.2  4.3  4.0  YUKON, N.W.T.  :  LO 00  Source:  Households  by Size,  Census 1971, S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 93-702, May 1973, Table 1, p. 1-1.  TABLE 15  ANNUAL AVERAGE RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH  PERIOD  B.C.  CANADA  1930 - 1940  1.8%  1.1%  0.7%  1.1%  1940 - 1950  3.5  1.9  1.4  1.0  1950 - 1960  3.5  2.7  1.9  1.8  1960 - 1970  3.0  1.8  1.3  1.9  Source:  NORTH AMERICA  WORLD  Forecast of Population Growth in B.C. to the Year 2000. Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a , 1971, p. 5.  40  and between 1965  and  1970  estimated net m i g r a t i o n r e p r e s e n t e d 18  74.6  percent of p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e f o r the P r o v i n c e . Net m i g r a t i o n i s a l s o the most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n the  p o p u l a t i o n growth of the Greater Vancouver Regional During the 1966-1971 p e r i o d i t accounted  f o r 76.5  the p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e f o r the d i s t r i c t . as a percentage  District.  percent of  It i s also  increasing  of p o p u l a t i o n growth.  M i g r a t i o n has a dramatic  e f f e c t upon housing demand w i t h i n  the P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia; not j u s t because of i t s l a r g e numbers but a l s o because the age d i s t r i b u t i o n of migrants i s markedly d i f f e r e n t from the r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n . a dramatic as migrants  M i g r a t i o n has  e f f e c t upon the demand f o r housing w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e i n c r e a s e the number of households,  both f a m i l y and  non-family, and r e q u i r e accommodation immediately On average,  75 percent of the migrants  were 39 years of age or younger, and  upon a r r i v a l .  t o B r i t i s h Columbia  40 percent were between  19 the ages of 20 and  39 y e a r s .  p a t t e r n s were observed  Between 1966  7 6 percent of a l l male and 20  migrants were between the ages of 20 and  Province.  similar  i n the migrants t o the Greater Vancouver  Regional D i s t r i c t as 79 and  u t i o n of migrants  and 1971  30.  female  The age  distrib-  c o n t r i b u t e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o the growth of the  Because of t h e i r young age and t h e i r h i g h e r  fertility  r a t e s , they w i l l a l s o c o n t r i b u t e g r e a t l y t o the r e g i o n ' s 18  I bid, page 7.  19  I bid, page 7.  20  Gfizater Vdncouvcn. Regional d i s t r i c t Population Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , Vancouver, 1973, page 5.  Forecast, January  41  natural increase.  P o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s r e s u l t i n g from  i o n thereby c r e a t e a g r e a t e r demand f o r housing  migrat-  accommodation  than would an equal n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n  (births -  deaths). The  average net m i g r a t i o n i n t o B r i t i s h Columbia between  1960  and  1970  1970  m i g r a t i o n i n c r e a s e d and net gain i n p o p u l a t i o n through  was  33,700 persons a n n u a l l y .  m i g r a t i o n averaged 51,000 persons per year  Between 1965  (see Table  P r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r e c a s t s p r o j e c t continued m i g r a t i o n t o B r i t i s h Columbia  (see Table 19).  and  16).  high net  There i s a  d i r e c t c o r r e l a t i o n between net m i g r a t i o n s and economic c o n d i t ions w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia. of economic growth, r i s i n g employment and  During  periods  incomes, m i g r a t i o n  tends to be h i g h , w h i l e p e r i o d s of slow growth, i n d i c a t e d . . 21 r i s i n g employment, tend t o c u r t a i l  migration.  M i g r a t i o n t o B r i t i s h Columbia has been high i n r e c e n t and  by  i t i s f o r e c a s t to continue at high l e v e l s .  years  I f net m i g r a t i o n  continues as p r o j e c t e d , household formation w i l l remain h i g h and  continued  can be  h i g h demand p r e s s u r e f o r r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation  expected.  A number of the f a c t o r s have c o n t r i b u t e d to the growth i n the number of households and p a r t i c u l a r l y non-family 21  the r e s u l t i n g demand f o r housing,  households.  The  long run t r e n d of  X-oneeaht oj Population Gnowtk In Zn.ltlt>k Columbia to the yean. 2 000, Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a 1971, page 7.  TABLE 16  NET MIGRATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION INCREASE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA  NET MIGRATION AS % OF TOTAL POPULATION INCREASE  ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION  TOTAL POPULATION INCREASE  1950 - 1970  586,000  1,000,000  58.6  1960 - 1970  337,000  535,000  63.0  1965 - 19 70  253,000  340,000  74.6  PERIOD  Source:  Forecast  for Population  Growth in B.C. to the Year  2000, Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a , 1971, p. 7.  TABLE 17  MIGRATION TO THE GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT  YEAR  NET MIGRATION  % OF POPULATION INCREASE  1951 - 1956  57,608  55.8  1956 - 1961  72,052  57.6  1961 - 1966  63,054  61.6  1966 - 1971  103,592  76.5  Source:  GVRD Population Forecast, Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , January, 1973, p. 5.  TABLE 18  AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTIONS OF MIGRANTS TO THE GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT 1966 - 1971  AGE  % MALE  % FEMALE  0-9  16  16  10-19  14  15  20-29  33  33  30-39  16  12  40 - 49  9  50-59  5  5  60-69  4  7  70-79  1  3  80 +  2  3  Source:  .  6  GVRD Population Forecast, Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , Vancouver, January 1973, Table IV, p. 5.  TABLE 19 FORECAST NET MIGRATION TO BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE YEAR 2000  FIRST PROJECTION AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER  YEAR  SECOND PROJECTION  SHARE OF POPULATION INCREASE  AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER  SHARE OF POPULATION INCREASE  65.8%  45,000  65.8%  66.1  55,000  66.1  60,000  63.9  60,000  63.4  1985 - 1989  60,000  63.5  70,000  74.1 ...  1990 - 2000  60,000  61.7  80,000  67.2  1970 - 1974  45,000  1965 - 1979  ' 55,000  1980 - 1984  Source:  Forecast  ;  of  Population  Growth in  B. C.  to the  Year  2000, Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a , 1971, p. 8.  TABLE -2 0  POPULATION FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA: ACTUAL AND PROJECTED  YEAR  ACTUAL POPULATION  1951  1,165,210  1961  1,629,082  1966  1,873,674  1970  2,137,000  1971  2,184,621  F O R E C A S T  1980  2,895,000  1990  3,837,000 - 3,893,000  2000  4,810,000 -'5,084,000  Source:  Forecast of Population Growth in B.C. to the Year 2000, Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a , 1971, p. 5; 1971 Canada Census, 93-702, Table 1.  47  movement of p o p u l a t i o n t o urban areas from r u r a l areas has meant that the younger migrants t o the c i t i e s have t o f i n d accommodation of t h e i r own  a t an e a r l i e r age than i f they had  remained a t home i n r u r a l areas.  Other f a c t o r s i n c r e a s i n g the  number of households and the demand f o r housing are the d e c l i n i n g o f the average age f o r marrying, and a g r e a t e r  inci-  dence of the young and e l d e r l y d e s i r i n g and being able t o a f f o r d separate accommodation. Net f a m i l y formation, net m i g r a t i o n , and net non-family household formation ( p r i m a r i l y young s i n g l e persons who move out of t h e i r p a r e n t s ' homes t o l i v e i n separate d w e l l i n g s , and middle-aged and e l d e r l y widows, widowers, b a c h e l o r s , s p i n s t e r s and d i v o r c e e s ) tend to generate demand f o r r e n t a l accommodations, w h i l e f a m i l i e s e x p e r i e n c i n g f i r s t and second c h i l d b i r t h s and f a m i l i e s whose head i s moving i n t o the 25-35 age range o f t e n s h i f t t h e i r demand from r e n t a l to owneroccupancy  accommodation.^  (2) Income and Employment P a t t e r n s Income and employment p a t t e r n s i n f l u e n c e demand through t h e i r e f f e c t upon the r a t e o f growth i n the number of households and households' consumption  o f housing accommodation.  In times of h i g h incomes, e x i s t i n g households w i l l tend t o seek higher q u a l i t y dwelling u n i t s . r e l a t i v e incomes  22  In times of r e c e s s i o n and lower  the t r e n d would be r e v e r s e d .  There would  Smith, L. B., Housing In Canada: Mafiket Sth.uctu.fie and Policy Vefijofimance, Research Monograph Number 2, CMHC, Ottawa 1971, page 30.  be  48  doubling-up as i n d i v i d u a l s and f a m i l i e s group t o g e t h e r t o form l a r g e r households; thereby r e d u c i n g t h e i r expenditure on housing and the number of households w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n . V a r i a t i o n i n incomes has c o n s i d e r a b l e impact upon the demand f o r housing accommodation by i n f l u e n c i n g the q u a l i t y o f accommodation d e s i r e d and the number of f a m i l i e s o r i n d i v i d u a l s s  who f e e l they can a f f o r d t h e i r own accommodation. comes a l l o w f a m i l i e s t o accumulate  Rising i n -  savings f o r down payments  and t o a f f o r d monthly payments, thereby s t i m u l a t i n g the demand f o r self-owned d w e l l i n g u n i t s . undoubling o f households  R i s i n g incomes a l s o a l l o w f o r  and the c r e a t i o n o f non-family house-  holds, thereby s t i m u l a t i n g the demand f o r r e n t a l accommodation. Income l e v e l s have r i s e n d r a m a t i c a l l y i n B r i t i s h  Columbia  i n r e c e n t years as i l l u s t r a t e d by the r i s e i n average weekly wages and s a l a r i e s f o r B r i t i s h Columbia 1961  t o $178.22 i n 1973.  from $85.20 per week i n  R i s i n g income and economic  stability  have c o n t r i b u t e d t o the demand f o r housing accommodation. Scwabe c l a s s i f i e d f a m i l i e s by income and observed t h a t the higher the income, the lower the p r o p o r t i o n o f income going t o 23 housing. law o f r e n t .  T h i s tendency  came t o be r e f e r r e d t o as the Scwabe  Reid, i n her s t u d i e s , found t h a t  r a t i o s were higher f o r the r i c h than the poor.  housing-income In other words,  the r a t i o o f housing t o income tends t o r i s e w i t h normal  income.  Reid estimated a stock demand e l a s t i c i t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o normal 23  Reid, Margaret G., Housing and Income, P r e s s , Chicago 1962, page 1.  U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago  income of around 2.0.  But t h e r e i s g r e a t debate as t o t h e  magnitude o f the stock e l a s t i c i t i e s  f o r dwelling  Estimates vary from highs o f 2.0 by Reid to  25  accommodation.  , and 1.0 by Muth  26  ,  27 28 29 lows o f between 0.5 and 0.8 by Lee , Morton , and Obsaner 30  Estimates f o r Canada by Obsaner  31 , and by Lee  , u s i n g Obsaner's  data w i t h a d i f f e r e n t d e f i n i t i o n of permanent income, y i e l d e d estimates w i t h r e s p e c t t o permanent income o f 0.50 and 0.696 r e s p e c t i v e l y ; w h i l e L. B. Smith i n other s t u d i e s o b t a i n e d 32 mates i n the v i c i n i t y o f 0.50.  These s t a t i s t i c a l  i n d i c a t e permanent income e l a s t i c i t i e s  esti-  results  i n the range o f 0.5 and  0.8, meaning t h a t the p r o p o r t i o n o f income  (both permanent and  c u r r e n t ) spent on housing f a l l s as income r i s e s .  Expenditures  on housing i n c r e a s e w i t h r i s i n g incomes, but not as f a s t as income i n c r e a s e s . 24  Ibid,  page 3 88.  25  I bid,  page 388.  26  Muth, R. F. , "The Demand f o r Non-Farm Housing", Demand joh.. durable Goods, A. Harberger, E d i t o r , U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1960, pages 29-96.  27  Lee, T. H. ,- "The Stock Demand E l a s t i c i t i e s o f Non-Farm Housing", The Review o& Economics and S t a t i s t i c s , Volume XLVI, February 1964, pages 82-89.  28  Morton, W. A., Housing P r e s s , Madison, 1965.  29  Obsaner, E., "Housing Demand i n Canada, 1947-1962; Some P r e l i m i n a r y Experimentation", Canadian Journal oI Economics and P o l i t i c a l Science, Volume XXXII, August 1966, pages 302-318.  30  Obsaner, E., op c i t .  31  Lee, T. H., "Housing and Permanent Income: T e s t Based on a Three Year Reinterview Study", Review oI Economics and S t a l l s t i c s , Volume L, November 1968, page 487.  32  Smith, L. B., Housing In Canada: Market Structure Volley Performance, CMHC, Ottawa 1971, page 32.  Taxation,  U n i v e r s i t y o f Wisconsin  and  TABLE 21 INCOME LEVELS CANADA - BRITISH  COLUMBIA  V CANADA:  YEAR  ANNUAL PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA  B.C.: INDEX 1961=100  ANNUAL CHANGE  1961  $1,475.2  100  ==  1962  1,578.9  107  1963  1,646.4  1964  ' B.C.:  AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES & SALARIES  2  INDEX 1961=100  AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES & SALARIES  ANNUAL CHANGE  $85.20  100  $4,430  +2.6  +7.0  87.44  103  4,547  +3.0  111  +4.3  90.10  106  4,685  +4.4  1,713.2  116  +4.1  94.11  110  4,894  +7.0  1965  1,846.0  125  +7.8  100.71  118  5,237  +7.0  1966  1,993.0  135  +8.0  107.42  126  5,586  +6.7  1967  2,113.4  143^.  +6.0  114.50  134  5,954  +6.6  1968  2,257.0  153  +6.8  120.76  142  6,280  +5.5  1969  2,417.1  164  +7.1  129.35  152  6,726  +7.1  1970  2,525.4  172  +4.5  • 137.97  162  7.174  +6.7  1971  2,754.1  187  +9.1  152.50  179  7,930  +10.5  1972  3,036.4  206  +10.3  165.08  194  8,584  +8.2  1973  3,424.6  232  +12.8  178.22  209  9,267  +8.0  Source:  ^Canadian Housing Statistics, 1973, CMHC, March 1974, Table 23, p. 21. Canadian Statistical Review, S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Ottawa, 11-003, various e d i t i o n s , p. 19, Dec. 63, p. 58; H i s t o r i c a l Summary 1970, p. 53, Oct. 74.  51  (3) P r i c e s a n d R e n t s Prices  andr e n t s a f f e c t  manner a s t h e y Rising favor  affect  demand  p r i c e s o f self-owned ofrental  rising  rent reduces  items.  and  non-shelter  items  ranging price  o f housing.  f r o m -0.96  o f housing  decrease their  R e l a t i v e changes b r i n g about  housing  i n the  Reid  relative  consumption  t o -1.5.  desired  demand  and quality. 35 Lee estimated  the  wide range o f estimates  in  each i t i s hard  price  accommodation  o f the  rents  price  elasticities  > . t h a t an i n c r e a s e i n  consumer p r o d u c t s ,  tends t o  b y number o f rooms,  34 Muth's e s t i m a t e s a price  andthe  while  effects.  elasticity 3 6 a t -1.48, a n d Chung  f o r housing  of  estimates  as represented  facilities  demand i n  i nhouse p r i c e s ,  , suggesting  t oother  same  commodities;  substitution  obtained  33  t o -2.45  i nthe  goods a n d s e r v i c e s .  i nfavor o f self-owned  i s wide v a r i a t i o n  elasticity  for other  accommodation reduces  demand  non-shelter  There  demand f o r h o u s i n g  accommodation and n o n - s h e l t e r  and  -1.0  the  ranged  from  of the - 1.0.  specification  Because  problems 37  t oreach  a consensus;  i n L . B. S m i t h ' s  33  R e i d , M., " C a p i t a l F o r m a t i o n i n R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s t a t e " , Joufinal oj Political Economy, V o l u m e 6 6 , A p r i l 1 9 5 8 , pages 131-153.  34  M u t h , R. F . , " T h e D e m a n d f o r N o n - F a r m H o u s i n g " , pages 29-96.  35  L e e , Y. H., " T h e S t o c k D e m a n d E l a s t i c i t i e s H o u s i n g " , op cit, page 88.  36  Chung, J . , " L ' A n a l y s e d e l a demande d e l o g e m e n t s p r o p r i e t a r i e s 1 ' e x p e r i e n c e C a n a d i e n n e " , Actualltc Economlque., J u n e 1967, page 7 9 .  37  S m i t h , L . B. , Housing In Canada: Policy  PHitjofimancn  s  r  , HC M  r  nt-t-awa,  op  cit,  o f Non-Farm  Mafikzt Stfiuctufie. and r  *gg  IA.  "  52  opinion price  elasticity  i s about  -1.0.  What i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be most  relevant  accommodation  t o most home p u r -  c h a s e r s who  purchase  the nominal  p r i c e o f t h e home b u t t h e down payment  (loan t o value r a t i o ) , pal  plus interest  and  rising  being  ownership (4)  and t h e m o n t h l y c a r r y i n g  payments).  R i s i n g nominal  h o u s i n g demand may  liberalized will  Credit  Changes  costs,  housing  through  variables,  in credit  self-owned  variables  and r e n t a l  When c r e d i t  accommodation,  i s very sensitive  down payments  shift  and h e n c e ,  e a s e s , demand w i l l  shift  shift  t o self-owned  requirements  f a m i l i e s must  accommodation  covers.  payments. liquid  a g i v e n down severely  a b l e t o s u p p o r t t h e s e payments  payment limit  the  out of  income.  The down payment  portion  sector.  have t o e n t e r t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t  s u p p o r t ; w h i l e l a r g e r m o n t h l y payments  current  credit  accommodation  i n c r e a s e t h e minimum  the housing expenditure that  number o f h o u s e h o l d s  When  to the r e n t a l  L a r g e down payment savings that  payments.  h o u s i n g demand between t h e  s e c t o r s of the housing market. demand w i l l  rental t o changes  and m o n t h l y  a r e a b l e t o make t h e r e q u i r e d  will  terms are  demand f o r home  as more h o u s e h o l d s  reduce  prices  accommodation.  substitution,  required  terms a r e t o o onerous,  and  (princif  Variables  accommodation, credit  i s not  requirement  i f financing  tightens,  towards r e n t a l  The demand f o r s e l f - o w n e d  in  co-exist  b u t , as c r e d i t  shift  w i t h mortgage c r e d i t  required  f o r the purchase  of  d e p e n d s upon t h e p r i c e o f t h e u n i t  of t h a t value  (loan t o v a l u e r a t i o )  The m o n t h l y payments  required  self-owned and t h e p r o -  t h a t t h e mortgage  i n the purchase  of a  53  home, depend on the down payment, the morgage i n t e r e s t r a t e , and  the a m o r t i z a t i o n  period.  38 Lee and  found t h a t the i n t e r a c t i o n between mortgage r a t e s  c o n t r a c t l e n g t h showed a negative  housing, implying and  t h a t households c o n s i d e r  t h e i r c o n t r a c t lengths  costs.  e f f e c t upon the demand f o r  Loan.to value  both the mortgage r a t e s  j o i n t l y as the burden of the mortgage  r a t i o s appeared to have a s t r o n g p o s i t i v e  e f f e c t upon demand f o r housing and, s i n c e the down payment i s i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d to the loan to value preted  as a negative  r a t i o s , t h i s was  r e l a t i o n between the down payment  interrequire-  ment and the demand f o r housing. Increases i n i n t e r e s t r a t e s and house p r i c e s have combined to g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e the c o s t o f p u r c h a s i n g self-owned accommodation.  An i n d i c a t i o n of the e f f e c t s of these f a c t o r s can be  seen from the s i m p l i f i e d a n a l y s i s of average house p r i c e s , down payments, r e q u i r e d mortgage l o a n s , monthly payments, and average annual wages and s a l a r i e s o u t l i n e d i n Table 2 2 . conventional  mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e s have r i s e n from 7.0  per annum i n 1963 t o a high of 12.25 percent House p r i c e s , as i n d i c a t e d by the average MLS Metropolitan  i n September 1 9 7 4 . sales p r i c e i n  Assuming one was t o purchase a house a t the  s a l e s p r i c e , w i t h a 25 percent  down payment, the  r i s e i n house p r i c e s over the p e r i o d 1963 to 1974 has the amount of l i q u i d savings 38  percent  Vancouver, have r i s e n from $12,636 t o $57,242 over  the same p e r i o d . average MLS  As o u t l i n e d ,  required  increased  f o r down payments  from  Lee, T. H., "The Stock Demand E l a s t i c i t i e s o f Non-Farm Housing", op ci.t, page 88.  TABLE 2 2 INTEREST RATES AND THE COST OF HOUSING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTEREST RATES  YEAR  MAX. NHA  CONVENTIONAL PRIME  1  2  Q r\\\T*r> p q »  11.75-12.25  •  DOWN PAYMENT • 25%  REQUIRED LOAN  $12,636 13,202 13,964 15,200 17,836 20,595 23,939 24,239 26,471 31,463 41,505  $3,159 3,300 3,491 ,3,800 4,459 5,149 5,985 6,060 6,618 7,866 10,376  $9,477 9,902 10,473 11,400 13,371 15,446 17,954 18,179 19,853 23,599 31,129  $67.34 70.36 77.12 77.27 88.07 131.33 170.28 168.02 168.80 202.60 289.03  57,242  14,310  42,932  461.90  AVERAGE MLS SALES PRICE METRO VANC.  7.00 7.00 7.40 7.95 8.52 9.10 10.50 10.16 9.10 9,22 10.22  1963 6.25 1964 6.25 1965 6.25 1966 '. 7.25 1967 7.91 1968 ' 8.69 9.97 1969 1970 9.79 1971 .8.91 1972 9.00 9.88 1973 1974 (Sept.) 11.25-12.30  MONTHLY PAYMENTS 25 YEAR TERM AT CONVENTIONAL PRIME  L  REQUIRED ANNUAL INCOME 25% DEBT SERVICE RATIO  B.C. AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES & SALARIES"  $3,232 3,377 3,702 4,227 5,205 6,304 8,174 8,065 8,102 9,725 .13,874  c  $4,685 4,894 5,237 5,586 5,954 6,280 6,726 7,174 7,930 8,584 9,267  22,171  —  1  . Canada Housing,  Canadian  A Summary 1963-1972,  Housing Stattstics,  CMHC, Ottawa, 1973.  1973, CMHC, Ottawa, March 1974, Table 79, p. 68.  3  Vancouver  Mortgage  Market  as of September  10,  1974,  Real Estate Board of  ;  Greater Vancouver, September 10, 1974.  4  Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. ''Canadian Statistical Review, S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Ottawa, 11-003, various e d i t i o n s , December 1963, p. 19; H i s t o r i c a l Summary, p. 58; October 1974, p. 53.  m  55  $3,159 i n 1963 t o $14,310 i n September 1974.  In 1963 a gross  annual income o f $3,232 was r e q u i r e d t o s e r v i c e a mortgage on 75 percent o f the average value o f a house i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver.  The i n c r e a s e s i n i n t e r e s t r a t e s , house p r i c e s and  r e q u i r e d down payments have outpaced i n c r e a s e s i n the average annual wages and s a l a r i e s f o r workers i n B r i t i s h Columbia.  As  a r e s u l t , average f a m i l i e s have been f a l l i n g behind s i n c e 1968. T h e i r income l e v e l s have not been s u f f i c i e n t t o support mortgage loans t o purchase average accommodation i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, even i f they had been able t o save enough t o be able t o make the l a r g e r down payments.  T h i s b r i e f a n a l y s i s lends support t o  the argument t h a t s e l f - o w n e r s h i p i s beyond the reach o f many low and middle income households. In r e c e n t years r i s i n g house p r i c e s , i n t e r e s t r a t e s and i n c r e a s e d down payment requirements have made home ownership more expensive, thereby r e d u c i n g the number o f f a m i l i e s and i n d i v i d u a l s who f e e l they are able t o a f f o r d accommodation.  self-owned  F e d e r a l and P r o v i n c i a l Governments have always  promoted the demand f o r home ownership and, through a number of programs have attempted t o reduce the c o s t of home ownership.  The F e d e r a l Government, through the C e n t r a l Mortgage and  Housing C o r p o r a t i o n , p r o v i d e s h i g h r a t i o loans a t i n t e r e s t r a t e s below c o n v e n t i o n a l mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e s .  CMHC's  A s s i s t e d Home Ownership programs a l l o w f o r the use o f c o s t reducing techniques such as v a r i a b l e i n t e r e s t r a t e s , r a t e s u b s i d i e s and extended loan terms.  interest  The F a l l 1974  F e d e r a l Budget p r o v i d e d f o r g r a n t s o f $500 toward the purchase i  of one's f i r s t home and c r e a t e d a R e g i s t e r e d Home  56  Ownership Savings program t o a l l o w an annual tax d e d u c t i o n o f $1,000, f o r a s a v i n g of $1,000 per annum, up t o a t o t a l of $10,000, towards the down payment f i r s t house.  f o r the purchase o f one's  W i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia the P r o v i n c i a l  has helped to s t i m u l a t e the demand f o r self-owned  Government  accommodation  through the p r o v i s i o n of $1,000 grants towards the purchase of a new home o r , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , a $5,000 low i n t e r e s t second mortgage t h a t can be a p p l i e d towards the purchase o f a new house.  Through these programs the F e d e r a l and P r o v i n c i a l  Governments have attempted to s t i m u l a t e the demand f o r s e l f owned accommodation by s o f t e n i n g the e f f e c t s o f c r e d i t  variables  upon housing demand. (5) Consumer  Preferences  T r a d i t i o n a l l y i t has been the d e s i r e of people to secure self-owned accommodation to p r o v i d e what i s c o n s i d e r e d to be the r i g h t k i n d of environment f o r a growing f a m i l y .  Consumer  p r e f e r e n c e s p l a c e important i n f l u e n c e s upon housing demand. Consumer p r e f e r e n c e s have been i n f l u e n c e d by government programs and tax p r o v i s i o n s t h a t f a v o r home ownership.  The  Royal Commission on T a x a t i o n noted t h a t t h e , e x c l u s i o n o f n e t imputed r e n t a l income from the income tax base r e s u l t e d i n a 39 s u b s t a n t i a l tax p r e f e r e n c e f o r home ownership.  As a con-  sequence of t h i s tax p r e f e r e n c e , the number of owner-occupied d w e l l i n g s i s c o n s i d e r e d to be higher than i f imputed net r e n t a l 40 income had been taxed. Demand f o r housing has a l s o been 39  Rupofit oj the. Royal Commission, on Taxation^ Queen's P r i n t e r , Ottawa 1966, pages 48-49.  Volume  3,  40  K i t c h e n , H., "Imputed Rent on Owner-Occupied D w e l l i n g s " , Canadian Tax loufinal, Volume XV, Number 3, 1967, page 484.  57  s h i f t e d towards home ownership  because  o f p r o v i s i o n s o f the  Income Tax A c t t h a t a l l o w the investment i n one's p r i n c i p a l r e s i d e n c e t o be f r e e of c a p i t a l gains t a x a t i o n . P r o v i s i o n s o f t h e Income Tax A c t and e x p e c t a t i o n s o f continued i n f l a t i o n have caused s h i f t s i n the demand f o r housing.  Renters w i l l be more l i k e l y t o s h i f t t o owner-occupied  u n i t s and e x i s t i n g home owners w i l l s h i f t t o h i g h e r v a l u e homes i f they become c o n f i d e n t t h a t the r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n house p r i c e s , r e l a t i v e to other p r i c e s , i s going t o p e r s i s t . Demand f o r i n d i v i d u a l l y owned housing i s a c c e l e r a t e d by t h e f a c t t h a t the investment i s one o f the very few which i s f r e e o f c a p i t a l gains and income taxes and has proven t o be a good hedge a g a i n s t i n f l a t i o n . I n f l a t i o n , and p r o v i s i o n s o f the Income Tax A c t , have brought about s h i f t s i n housing demand.  From an economic  p o i n t o f view, owning r a t h e r than r e n t i n g housing accommodation has had c l e a r advantages  as s h e l t e r from i n f l a t i o n and as a  v e h i c l e t o r e a l i z e both p r e s e n t a n d " p o t e n t i a l t a x advantages.  TABLE 2 3  TAX SUBSIDY TO HOME OWNERSHIP AS A PER CENT REDUCTION IN IMPUTED GROSS RENTAL INCOME  MARGINAL TAX RATE  0 14. 8 20.0 30.9 41. 2 51. 5 61. 8 72.1  (%)  PER CENT REDUCTION  Nil 8.6 11.7 18.0 24. 0. 30.0 36.0 42.0  Source: T. A. C l a y t o n , "Income Taxes and S u b s i d i e s to Homeowners and R e n t e r s : A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian E x p e r i e n c e s , " Canadian Tax Journal, V o l . XXII, No. 3 (May - June, 1974) , p. 3 0 4 .  59  CHAPTER IV  ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF HOUSING H o u s i n g i s more t h a n . p h y s i c a l f r o m t h e w i n d and t h e r a i n . life,  a place  symbol,  Housing  leisure  a determinant of c i v i c  a financial ties  t o pursue  investment  s h e l t e r , a roof i s the centre  time a c t i v i t i e s , citizenship,  and an a c c e s s  and p r o t e c t i o n  point  of family  a social  a personal  status  refuge,  t o community  facili-  and s e r v i c e s . Muth h a s d e f i n e d  housing  as " a b u n d l e o f s e r v i c e s y i e l d e d  b o t h by s t r u c t u r e s and a l s o by t h e l a n d o r s i t e s  on w h i c h  they  41 are  built". Smith has d e f i n e d  housing  f r o m t h e consumer's v i e w p o i n t  a group o f s e r v i c e s - s h e l t e r , a m e n i t i e s , t o be u s e d d a i l y ,  and o f t e n , t o be p a i d  From t h e s t a n d p o i n t  of the general  accessibility,  as  etc., 42  for periodically.  economist housing  i s just 43  a lump o f r e s o u r c e s  w h i c h m i g h t a s w e l l be c a l l e d  Housing i s t r a d i t i o n a l l y units  - the t y p i c a l  Ratcliff  has d e f i n e d  supplies  the f u l l  41  42  physical container "dwelling  and Housing:  Urban Residential Land C h i c a g o 1969, page 18.  S m i t h , W. F., Housing:  i n terms o f d w e l l i n g f o r a s i n g l e household.  u n i t s " as t h e h o u s i n g  complement o f l i v i n g  Muth, R. L.,- C i t i e s •  discussed  "shelter".  facilities  The-Spatial  space  that  - f o r cooking,  Pattern  Use] U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o  of  Press,  The Social  and Economic  Elements,  The Social  and Economic  Elements,  page 96.  43  S m i t h , W. F., Housing: pages  9, 10.  60  e a t i n g , s l e e p i n g , and r e l a x a t i o n ... the space designed to accommodate one  f a m i l y group r e g a r d l e s s of the s t r u c t u r e i n 44  which i t i s e n c l o s e d " . Housing.is a commodity i n the p h y s i c a l sense; i t i s i d e n t i f i e d and measured i n terms of a d w e l l i n g u n i t or housing and i t trades i n a market l i k e other commodities; not an o r d i n a r y commodity.  Housing  has c e r t a i n  unit  yet i t i s characteristic  f e a t u r e s which d i s t i n g u i s h i t from the m a j o r i t y of other commodities.  Housing  i s f i x e d i n l o c a t i o n , and i t i s an  d u r a b l e , expensive, and heterogeneous  extremely  commodity.  Fixed Location Due  to the nature of housing as an improvement t o l a n d , a l l  housing, w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of mobile homes, i s f i x e d i n l o c a t i o n . T h i s i m m o b i l i t y means t h a t the s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d by the housing u n i t must be consumed on the s i t e ; they can not be moved to s a t i s f y demand.  The s e r v i c e s of a d w e l l i n g u n i t can only be  u t i l i z e d on the spot by the movement of people. Since housing i s f i x e d i n l o c a t i o n , consumers buy not o n l y the p h y s i c a l s t r u c t u r e t h a t i s the housing u n i t , but a l s o a package of environmental s e r v i c e s which o f t e n have l i t t l e with  to do  shelter. The i m m o b i l i t y of housing supply i n f l u e n c e s the o p e r a t i o n of  the housing market as i t n e c e s s i t a t e s a search by demand f o r t h a t supply.  As a r e s u l t of the i m m o b i l i t y of housing,  housing market i s l o c a l i n nature.  the  A vacant u n i t i n P r i n c e  George can not s a t i s f y the demand f o r accommodation i n Vancouver. 44  R a t c l i f f , R. U., Urban Land Economics, Co. Inc., New York.1949, page 87.  McGraw-Hill  Book  61  Durability Housing i s an extremely  durable commodity.  Because o f i t s  long p h y s i c a l and economic l i f e a house p r o v i d e s a flow o f s e r v i c e long beyond the p e r i o d i n which i t i s i n i t i a l l y structed.  con-  The f o r c e s o f d e t e r i o r a t i o n r e q u i r e many years t o  take t h e i r t o l l , as proper r e p a i r s and maintenance w i l l  help  preserve a house's p h y s i c a l soundness w h i l e obsolescence may be checked by improvements and s t r u c t u r a l a l t e r a t i o n s .  Because  of  i t s long l i f e , a d w e l l i n g u n i t may s a t i s f y t h e housing  of  a number o f generations o f households. The d u r a b i l i t y o f housing means t h a t p r e s e n t housing  must always be met out o f supply designed  needs  needs  f o r past housing  needs,  thereby most market demand f o r housing a t any given time i s met by t h e e x i s t i n g s t a n d i n g stock and not by t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new-dwellings.  A d d i t i o n s t o t h e supply o f housing  each year 45  account 45  f o r a very s m a l l p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l housing  stock.  Over the decade 1955-1965 t h e r a t i o o f n e t annual g a i n t o end-year stock o f housing i n Great B r i t a i n averaged 1.5 percent, (Housing S t a t i s t i c s , Number 1, H.M.S.O., 1966, page 38). W i t h i n Canada a d d i t i o n s t o the housing stock i n 1971 were higher than i n Great B r i t a i n , r e p r e s e n t i n g 3.3 percent o r 201,320 completed u n i t s added t o t h e stock o f 6,034,505 as compared w i t h 1966 when a d d i t i o n s t o the housing stock r e p r e sented 3.1 percent o r 162,192 completions t o t h e stock o f 5,180,473 u n i t s . W i t h i n B. C. -additions t o t h e housing stock were s l i g h t l y higher. In 1971 a d d i t i o n s represented 4.5 percent o f the e x i s t i n g stock as 30,478 u n i t s were completed t o add t o t h e stock o f 667,545 occupied u n i t s . In 1966, a d d i t i o n s r e p r e sented a 4.4 percent i n c r e a s e i n the stock, as 21,944 u n i t s were completed t o add t o t h e s t o c k . o f 543,075 u n i t s . Source: Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 7 973, C.M.H.C., page 4; and Census Canada 1971, Housing Dwellings by Tenure and S t r u c t u r a l Type, 93-727, t a b l e 1, page 1.  62  Canada i s f o r t u n a t e as i t has a r e l a t i v e l y s t o c k ; n e a r l y 70 p e r c e n t been b u i l t  s i n c e 1945  the p o t e n t i a l years.  (see t a b l e 2 4 ) .  to help  At the-end  of a l l occupied  dwellings  housing  i n 1971 h a d  The s t o c k o f h o u s i n g  s e r v i c e the housing  o f May,  young  has  n e e d s f o r many more  1971, t h e r e were 6,030,805  occupied  46 d w e l l i n g u n i t s i n Canada.  430,305 were l e s s  than  3 years o l d ,  501,945 were between 3 and 5 y e a r s ,  and 1,383,445 were b e t w e e n  10 and 19 y e a r s .  of the housing  less  than  fifties  Almost  20 y e a r s  52 p e r c e n t  o l d , representing housing  and t h e s i x t i e s  and e a r l y  seventies.  616,195 u n i t s were between 20 and 25 y e a r s cent of the Canadian housing second world years  construction of the An  additional  o l d . Almost  s t o c k has b e e n b u i l t  The r e m a i n i n g  was  61  per-  since the  2,291,705 u n i t s were o v e r  25  o l d ( s e e t a b l e s 24 and 2 5 ) .  The national the  war.  stock  British  Columbia housing  s t o c k due t o t h e r a p i d  second world  u n i t s were l e s s  war. than  stock  i s younger than t h e  growth i n the P r o v i n c e  A t t h e end o f May 3 years  since  1971, 66,365 d w e l l i n g  o l d , 73,580 were between 3 and 5,  95,840 were b e t w e e n 6 and 9, a n d 156,045 were between 10 and 19 years  old.  20 y e a r s as  Almost  old.  59 p e r c e n t  An a d d i t i o n a l  70.4 p e r c e n t Only  war.  stock  i n 1971 was o l d e r t h a n  197,300 u n i t s ,  compared t o 20 p e r c e n t  46  7 977  housing  Cen-aius  o  Canada,  less  than  29.6 p e r c e n t  25; a n d o n l y  s i n c e the second of the standing  9.6 was  over  o f the t o t a l n a t i o n a l housing  stock  I  s t o c k was  78,200 u n i t s were b e t w e e n 20 and 25,  o f t h e s t o c k has b e e n b u i l t  world  Provincial  o f the housing  50 as  stock.  The  i s relatively  young because o f t h e h i g h  Statistics  C a n a d a , 93-731, t a b l e 24.  TABLE 24 OCCUPIED DWELLINGS - PERIOD OF CONSTRUCTION - AGE  PERIOD  OF  CONSTRUCTION  1920 OR BEFORE  1921-1945  1946-1950  1951-1960  1961-1965  1966-1968  1969-1970  6,030,805  1,202,350  1,089,355  616,195  1,383,445  807,215  501,945  388,060  42,245  OWNED  3,634,595  729,875  651,925  402,095  926,785  465,175  248,400  187,070  23,275  RENTED  2,396,210  472,480  437,435  214,100  456,655  342,045  253,545  200,985  18,970  AREA  TOTAL  CANADA  PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL STOCK  (1)  20.0  Includes f i r s t Source:  18.1  10.2  22.9  13.4  8.3  6.4  1971(1)  0.7  f i v e months o n l y o f 1971.  1971 Canada Census, 93-731, T a b l e 24.  (JO  TABLE 2 5 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING STOCK CANADA AND B.C. 1971  CANADA  B.C. NUMBER  AGE IN YEARS  NUMBER  : %  LESS THAN 3  430,305  7.1  66,365  10.0  3-5  501,945  8.3  73,580  11.0.  6 -9  807,215  13.4  95,840  14.3  10 - 19  1,383,445  22.9  156,045  23.4  20 - 25  616,195  10.2  78,200  11.7  26-50  1,089,355  18.1  133,115  20.0  OVER 50  1,202,350  20.0  64,185  9.6  TOTAL  6,030,805  100.0  Source:  667,330 .  %'  100.0  1971 Canada Census, 93-731, Vol. I I , Part 3, Table 24-1.  TABLE 2 6 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF B.C. HOUSING STOCK  "  AGE IN YEARS - AS % OF STOCK  AREA  HOUSING STOCK  LESS THAN 3  3-5  6-9  B.C.  TOTAL  667,330  10.0  11.0  URBAN  521,165  9.1  RURAL  146,160  OWNED  B.C.  1971  OVER 50  10-19  20-25  26-50  14.3  23.4  11.7  20.0  9.6  10.8  14.2  23.5  11.6  20.6  10.2  12.9  11.8  15.0  22.9  12.1  17.7  7.6  422,510  8.7  9.4  12.8  26.3  13.1  21.0  8.7  RENTED 244,820  12.0  13.9  17.2  18.3  9.4  18.1  11.1  Source:  1971 Census of Canada, 93-731, November 1973, Tables 24, 26, 27.  66  l e v e l s of p o p u l a t i o n and household  growth w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e  and the h i g h l e v e l of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t has been experienced i n r e c e n t y e a r s . R u r a l housing u n i t s are g e n e r a l l y newer' than t h e i r urban counterparts.  In 1971,  B r i t i s h Columbia was  24.7  percent of a l l r u r a l housing i n  5 years or l e s s i n age,  2 0 percent of urban housing.  compared t o o n l y  Almost 75 percent of the  housing had been b u i l t s i n c e 194 5, compared t o 6 9.2 of urban housing  rural  percent  (see t a b l e 2 6).  Renter-occupied  accommodation i s a l s o newer than  self-  owned housing u n i t s as a r e s u l t of the growth i n c o n s t r u c t i o n of apartment and r e n t a l accommodation i n B r i t i s h Columbia d u r i n g recent years. d a t i o n was  In 1971,  almost  24 percent of a l l r e n t a l accommo-  5 years of age or l e s s , compared t o 18.1  of a l l self-owned  accommodation w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e .  a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of r e n t a l u n i t s was 11.1  percent However,  o l d e r than 50 years o l d ,  percent of the r e n t a l stock as compared t o o n l y 8.7  owner-occupied d w e l l i n g s  (see t a b l e  26).  In g e n e r a l , the age of the P r o v i n c i a l housing than the n a t i o n a l average,  of the  stock i s lower  due t o the r a p i d growth of the  P r o v i n c e s i n c e the second world  war.  C a p i t a l Requirements Housing modities.  i s extremely  i n comparison w i t h other com-  I t i s u s u a l l y the l a r g e s t s i n g l e expenditure t o be  made by a household. to 27.7  expensive  S h e l t e r and household  percent of the average  operation  corresponded  Canadian's expenditures i n  the next l a r g e s t item, food, corresponded  t o 21.4  1967;  percent of  67  p e r s o n a l expenditures on major c l a s s e s of goods and The average  services.  p r i c e of a house i n Greater Vancouver, s o l d under 48  the M u l t i p l e L i s t i n g S e r v i c e , was  $52,850.  The c a p i t a l i n v e s t e d i n houses i s the most important nent of t o t a l a s s e t h o l d i n g s f o r f a m i l i e s and unattached u a l s i n Canada as i t r e p r e s e n t e d approximately  compoindivid-  57 percent of the  aggregate  value of t o t a l a s s e t s of a l l f a m i l i e s and unattached 49 i n d i v i d u a l s i n 1969. The estimated average market v a l u e of homes i n 1969 was $18,636 and the average e q u i t y investment f o r all  f a m i l i e s and unattached  i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e i r own  home was  50 $14,556. The s i g n i f i c a n c e of the,high c a p i t a l investment  i n housing  i n Canada i s r e a l i z e d when i t i s c o n s i d e r e d t h a t even though new  c o n s t r u c t i o n of housing u n i t s w i t h i n any one year r e p r e s e n t s  only approximately  3 percent of the e x i s t i n g stock, c a p i t a l  expenditures on housing i n Canada each year r e p r e s e n t s a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of a l l c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s , both b u s i n e s s social.  In 1973  c a p i t a l expenditure on new  housing  and  totalled  $5,939 m i l l i o n , 22.7  p e r c e n t of a l l c a p i t a l expenditure i n 51 Canada f o r the year. In the same year r e p a i r expenditures 47  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Market Research P r i n t e r , 1969, Chart 16, page 213,  Handbook, Ottawa, Queen's (63-514).  48  Real E s t a t e Board of Greater Vancouver,  49  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Incomes, Assets and Indebtedness of In Canada 19 69, Ottawa, A p r i l 1973, 13-547, page 37.  50  I b i d , t a b l e 39, page 108. Estimates of aggregate v a l u e s of t o t a l a s s e t s , average market v a l u e s of houses, and average e q u i t y investments f o r a l l f a m i l i e s and unattached i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e i r own homes, were determined from a sample of 14,034 households throughout Canada i n 19 70.  51  Capital Expenditures i y / 4 , page 6.  (see t a b l e  10). Families  197 3, S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 61-205, A p r i l ~~~  68  TABLE 2 7 NATIONAL EXPENDITURES AND RESIDENTIAL EXPENDITURES  1963 - 1973  E X P E N D I T U R E S (Millions of Dollars) PERIOD  PERSONAL EXPENDITURES  GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES  RESIDENTIAL EXPENDITURES  RESIDENTIAL EXPENDITURE AS % OF GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURES  PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME PER. CAPITA  1963  29,225  6,982  1,966  4.27  $ 1,646.4  1964  31,389  7,593  2,389  4.75  1,713.2  1965  33,947  8,358  2,642  4.77  1,846.0  1966  36,890  9,748  2,618  4.23  1,993.0  1967  39,972  11,153  2,822  4.24  2,113.4  1968  43,704  12,684  3,268  4.50  2,257.0  1969  47,492  14,162  3,859  4.83  2,417.1  1970  50,040  16,396  3,623  4.24  2,525.4  1971  53,963  18,361  4,462  4.79  2,754.1  1972  60,277  20,530  5,376  5.20  3,036.4  19731  69,070  23,012  6,491  5.47  3,424.6  1  P r e l i m i n a r y Data Source: Canadian Bousing Table 23.  Statt-stxos,  1973, CMHC, March 1973,  69  on housing t o t a l l e d $1,194 m i l l i o n .  (See a l s o t a b l e 2 7 ) .  Heterogenity Although a d w e l l i n g u n i t i s the standard u n i t of housing stock, they are.non-homogeneous as they can range  from a slum  u n i t t o a mansion - w h i l e each counts as one d w e l l i n g u n i t . There i s v i r t u a l l y an i n f i n i t e v a r i a t i o n among r e s i d e n t i a l structures.  Every p a r c e l of land i s separate and d i s t i n c t from  a l l other land; unique  in location.  Thus each house, as an  improvement t o the l a n d , i s not e x a c t l y regardless of.duplication  s i m i l a r to any o t h e r ,  of improvements.  Housing  geneous as t o l o c a t i o n , s i z e , d e n s i t y , tenure, age, s t r u c t u r a l type, and market v a l u e .  quality,  Because of i t s d i v e r s i t y ,  not every housing u n i t can be s u b s t i t u t e d Housing  i s hetero-  f o r every other u n i t .  i s a nonhomogeneous commodity and the supply of accom-  modation i s , as a r e s u l t , made up of many d i f f e r e n t s i z e s  and  types of d w e l l i n g u n i t s . Housing  Markets  In simple terms, a housing market i s a composite  of n e g o t i a -  t i o n s between buyers and s e l l e r s , l e s s e e s and l e s s o r s , i n f r e e communication f o r the a c q u i s i t i o n or d i s p o s i t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l u n i t s which are i n some degree of c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h each o t h e r . Due  t o the economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of housing, the d i v e r s i t y  of housing u n i t s  and the i m m o b i l i t y of housing u n i t s , there i s  not one market, but many.  Housing markets are e s s e n t i a l l y l o c a l  i n nature, r a t h e r than n a t i o n a l  or p r o v i n c i a l .  are f i x e d i n l o c a t i o n the s e r v i c e s  52  As housing  units  of a d w e l l i n g u n i t can only be  ConAtA.ucti.on In Canada 7 9 72 -7 974 , S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 6 4 - 2 0 1 , J u l y 1974, page 14.  70  utilized The  on  the  s p o t by  location  overriding  t h e movement o f  o f employment was  factor  and  increasing leisure  diminishing.  People  and  area.  with  the  time,  the  housing  are  growing a f f l u e n c e  the  with  the  particular  life  available within  location  preferences  an  of  consumers.  With improved from l o c a t i n g  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems i n d i v i d u a l s  c l o s e t o work.  a wide v a r i e t y  The  houses d i r e c t l y  compete w i t h  upper l i m i t  outer  of accepted  by  a housing  limits  to accept  each o t h e r ,  m a r k e t and  improved  longer t r a v e l  Within considered  any  linked  and  s u b s t i t u t e s f o r one  arrange  themselves  the  d i s t a n c e i t takes  f o r an  area.  substitutability  The  to  area  of dwelling  increased i f people  are  i f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems  another,  another.  becoming c l o s e but  Dwelling u n i t s tend  submarkets w i t h i n the  virtue  o f s h a r i n g some i m p o r t a n t  tics.  S u b m a r k e t s have been c l a s s i f i e d  more o f t h e  by  m a r k e t a l l d w e l l i n g u n i t s may  t o one  perfect  into  or  i s determined  willing are  times.  given housing  t o be  the  o n l y be  times  to reduce t r a v e l  from  o f a market a r e a , w i t h i n which  commuting t i m e  u n i t s w i t h i n t h a t a r e a can  freed  l o c a t i o n s within, or close to,  t h e . d o m i n a n t c e n t r e o f employment  covered  are  They a r e a b l e t o c h o o s e  of r e s i d e n t i a l  an u r b a n a r e a .  reach  their  activities  shaping  the  importance of l o c a t i o n i s  that suit  time  t o be  location prefer-  a r e b e c o m i n g more c o n c e r n e d  leisure  These f a c t o r s  of the  T o - d a y however, w i t h  neighbourhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s style  once c o n s i d e r e d  i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n  e n c e s o f most i n d i v i d u a l s .  people.  l o c a l market  characteristic  following characteristics:  or  of  not to by  characteris-  a c c o r d i n g t o one type  be  or  s t r u c t u r e , type  71  of r i g h t s o r tenure, p r i c e or r e n t a l c l a s s , l o c a t i o n , age, q u a l i t y , 53 c o n d i t i o n or s i z e .  The g r e a t e r  the number of c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  examined and the range of c a t e g o r i e s  f o r each c h a r a c t e r i s t i c ,  the more submarkets t h a t can be i d e n t i f i e d and the c l o s e r the s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y and s i m i l a r i t y between u n i t s w i t h i n t h a t submarket. In examining the "housing market" M a i s e l  identified  four  i n t e r - r e l a t e d submarkets by c l a s s i f y i n g housing u n i t s by age and tenure.  His "submarkets" were:  houses not y e t s o l d or occupied;  (1) newly  constructed  (2) new r e n t a l u n i t s ;  p r e v i o u s l y occupied  u n i t s being  p r e v i o u s l y occupied  units offered f o r rent.  (3)  o f f e r e d f o r r e s a l e ; and 54  (4)  In a n a l y s i n g housing markets, Needleman found i t conveni e n t to c l a s s i f y  submarkets. w i t h i n l o c a l housing markets  i n g t o tenure; he-also authority; unfurnished;  identified  four submarkets:  (2) p r i v a t e l y rented and  furnished; 55 (4) owner occupied.  accordr-  (1) l o c a l  (3) p r i v a t e l y rented  The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h i s d i s c u s s i o n of housing markets and submarkets t o the a n a l y s i s of the B r i t i s h Columbia housing market i s t h a t i t p o i n t s out the B r i t i s h Columbia housing market i s not one market, but many l o c a l geographic markets w i t h i n which are submarkets f o r r e n t a l and self-owned accommod a t i o n , s i m i l a r to those d i s c u s s e d by M a i s e l and Needleman. Not 53 Grigsby, W. G. , Housing Markets and Public Pol-icy, University of Pennsylvania Press, P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1963, Page 40. 54  M a i s e l , S. J . , "A Theory o f F l u c t u a t i o n s i n R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n S t a r t s " , American Economic Review, Volume 53, 1963, page 367. '  55  Needleman, L., The Economics  of Housing,  page  143.  a l l u n i t s w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia  are s u b s t i t u t e s f o r each  o t h e r as they do not t r a d e i n s t r i c t l y the same market.  Due  to the l o c a l nature of the housing market a vacant u n i t i n P r i n c e George w i l l not s a t i s f y the need of someone working i n Vancouver who  i s l o o k i n g f o r accommodation.  Because o f the  l o c a l nature of housing markets, p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n must be g i v e n to the housing s i t u a t i o n i n i n d i v i d u a l markets the P r o v i n c e ; aggregate  f i g u r e s f o r housing stock and  throughou housing  p r o d u c t i o n f o r the P r o v i n c e do not t e l l the whole s t o r y .  73  CHAPTER V  HOUSING SUPPLY In aggregate, r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y housing stock or i n v e n t o r y . time, i s t h a t p r o p o r t i o n  i s r e f e r r e d to as  Housing supply,  a t any  of the t o t a l - i n v e n t o r y  the  point in  or e x i s t i n g  stock of housing p l u s those u n i t s newly completed or under c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t are o f f e r e d f o r s a l e or r e n t at a s p e c i f i c p r i c e i n the housing market. e n t e r i n g the market at any  The  one  supply  of d w e l l i n g  time does not u s a l l y correspond  to the t o t a l housing stock of the market.  Only a f r a c t i o n of  the stock w i l l be i n v o l v e d i n market t r a n s a c t i o n s . any  u n i t of the e x i s t i n g stock  units  However,  i s a p o t e n t i a l u n i t of  supply  as i t can e a s i l y be o f f e r e d f o r s a l e or r e n t i f the owner f e e l s the p r i c e i s r i g h t .  As p r i c e s i n c r e a s e , a g r e a t e r  p o r t i o n of the e x i s t i n g stock may and  new  be o f f e r e d f o r s a l e or  .construction i s encouraged.  housing u n i t s may  s t r u c t i o n c u r t a i l e d , thereby r e d u c i n g supply  p r o p e r t i e s ; and stock  new  of housing a v a i l a b l e at any  (conversions  con-  supply.  time can be brought about i n t h r e e ways: by the net c o n v e r s i o n  rent  As p r i c e s f a l l , e x i s t i n g  be withdrawn from the market and  Increases i n the  pro-  by new  one  construction;  minus mergers) of e x i s t i n g  by i n c r e a s i n g the p r o p o r t i o n  of the e x i s t i n g  i n v o l v e d i n market t r a n s a c t i o n s .  Elasticity  of Supply  I t i s o f t e n assumed t h a t the supply- of housing i s p e r f e c t l y  74  e l a s t i c , so t h a t someone w i l l f i n a n c e and b u i l d a d w e l l i n g u n i t f o r each f a m i l y which can pay  the going p r i c e .  It i s  assumed t h a t housing c o n s t r u c t i o n i s l i m i t e d p r i m a r i l y by number of buyers or  the  renters.^  In the s h o r t run, both the stock and u n i t s are r e l a t i v e l y  the supply  of housing  f i x e d , h i g h l y i n e l a s t i c , w i t h annual  c o n s t r u c t i o n r a r e l y r e p r e s e n t i n g more than 3 percent  of  new  the  57 standing  stock.  Because of the l e n g t h of time r e q u i r e d f o r  house c o n s t r u c t i o n , i t takes a tremendous e f f o r t and high c o s t s to add  s i g n i f i c a n t l y to the supply  short p e r i o d of time. periods  involves  o f housing i n any  Supply can only be i n c r e a s e d over s h o r t  i f more o c c u p i e r s  are w i l l i n g to s e l l t h e i r  and move elsewhere or double up,  accommodation  thereby f r e e i n g u n i t s to  the  market. Demand, on the other hand, can s h o r t run.  Because the supply  i n f l e x i b l e and  f l u c t u a t e g r e a t l y i n the  of housing i n the s h o r t run i s  cannot e a s i l y be a d j u s t e d  overcrowding and  to movements i n demand,  under occupancy occur w i t h the booms and  i n housing completions,  house p r i c e s , and  rents.  slumps  As the  supply  of housing changes so s l o w l y , r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l i n c r e a s e s  i n the  t o t a l housing demand can be met marginal supply,  t h a t i s , new  only by l a r g e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the' 58 c o n s t r u c t i o n and c o n v e r s i o n s .  56  Smith, W. F., Hou*lng: pages 116-117.  The  57  See footnote 45; new c o n s t r u c t i o n represented of housing stock i n Canada i n 19.71.  58  Needleman, L. , The  Economic*  Social  and  oj Hou*lng,  Economic. 3.3  Element*, percent  pages 145-147.  75  The  s h o r t run new housing supply  schedule can be expected  to be p r i c e i n e l a s t i c s i n c e a r e l a t i v e l y s k i l l e d c o n s t r u c t i o n workers p r o v i d e s  f i x e d number of  an upper l i m i t on the  aggregate l e v e l of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the s h o r t r u n . R e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i s a l s o l i m i t e d as the l e v e l o f nonr e s i d e n t i a l construction a f f e c t s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of b u i l d i n g 59 resources The  t h a t might otherwise be used i n home c o n s t r u c t i o n .  " s h o r t r u n " i s c o n v e n t i o n a l l y d e f i n e d as the p e r i o d o f  time r e q u i r e d f o r e x i s t i n g c p a c i t y t o produce a new u n i t o f output.  The short run i n the housing market may be as long i n  calendar  time as two or three y e a r s .  F o r , even i f c a p a c i t y i s  a v a i l a b l e , time i s r e q u i r e d between i n i t i a t i o n and completion of an apartment o r s u b d i v i s i o n p r o j e c t t o allow f o r a developer to put together  a complete package o f land, f i n a n c i n g , p l a n s ,  c o n t r a c t o r , and m u n i c i p a l In the s h o r t . r u n  approval.  the supply  o f housing i s h i g h l y  inelastic.  Only i n the long run can a new e q u i l i b r i u m between supply and demand be achieved  as new houses are c o n s t r u c t e d  p l a c e d on the market.  o r homes are  The speed o f response t o market changes  depends - upon-the s i z e and s t r u c t u r e o f the market  supply.  In the long run the•aggregate supply  schedule f o r r e s i d e n t i a l 60 accommodation appears t o be h i g h l y p r i c e e l a s t i c . Research by 59  P o l l o c k , R., "Supply o f R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n : A Cross S e c t i o n Examination of Recent Housing Market Behavior", Land Economics, V o l . 49, No. 1, Feb. 1973, page 58.  60  H i r s c h , W. Z., Urban Economic.. Analysis, York, 1973, page 48.  McGraw-Hill, New  76  Muth i n d i c a t e s t h a t the home-building i n d u s t r y i s h i g h l y 61 responsive percent  t o changes i n p r i c e o r income.  f a l l i n p r i c e or a 1.0 percent  Either^ a 1.0  i n c r e a s e i n income  l e v e l s leads t o an i n c r e a s e i n gross c o n s t r u c t i o n o f about 5.5  percent.  Lags i n Adjustment In the housing market, adjustments i n supply demand c o n d i t i o n s take p l a c e slowly.  t o changing  Due t o the many imper-  f e c t and p a r t i a l l y i n s u l a t e d housing markets, i t w i l l  take  time f o r the p r i c e of accommodation t o r i s e i n response t o i n c r e a s e d housing demand.  At the f i r s t r i s e i n p r i c e , con-  sumers may make more i n t e s i v e use o f e x i s t i n g accommodation, thus slowing  down p r i c e i n c r e a s e s f o r a w h i l e .  take a c o n s i d e r a b l e and  I t then may  time before p r i c e s have r i s e n h i g h enough  f o r long enough t o persuade house-builders  t h a t the i n c r e a s e  i n demand i s permanent and t h a t i t would be p r o f i t a b l e t o i n c r e a s e the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s .  There w i l l be  f u r t h e r l a g s between the d e c i s i o n t o b u i l d and the completion of a d d i t i o n a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s because of the time r e q u i r e d t o o b t a i n land, labour, p l a n s , f i n a n c i n g and approval  and t o  complete c o n s t r u c t i o n .  and changes  i n expectations,  Because o f these time-lags  supply w i l l take a long time t o respond t o  changes i n demand. Muth has found t h a t the dynamic l a g o f adjustment o f housing stock t o changing demand c o n d i t i o n s i s s u b s t a n t i a l . 61  Muth, R. F., "The Demand f o r Non-Farm Housing", Unban knatyhi* : Reading* in Housing and Unban Vev2.Zopme.nt, Page, A. N., S e g f r i e d , W. R., E d i t o r s : S c o t t , Foreman & Co., G l e n v i l l e , I l l i n o i s , 1970,  77  His estimates i n d i c a t e t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s seek to add t h i r d the d i f f e r e n c e between d e s i r e d  and  about  one  a c t u a l stock d u r i n g  year, which i m p l i e s  t h a t , f o r the adjustment of the  housing stock to be  90 percent completed, s i x years are  a  actual required.  Dominance of E x i s t i n g Stock Because of i t s long  life,  supply f a c t o r , r e p e a t e d l y both p r i c e and new  housing, once c r e a t e d ,  entering  the market and  the p r o d u c t i o n of new  housing, a t any  one  units.  of housing.  As  housing market tends to be dominated by the  Any a price.  influencing  Construction  of  time, i s only a minute f r a c t i o n of  e x i s t i n g stock or i n v e n t o r y  dwelling  becomes a  the  a r e s u l t , the s t a n d i n g stock o f  units.^ u n i t of the e x i s t i n g stock of housing i s a v a i l a b l e  at  A p o r t i o n of the e x i s t i n g stock of housing u n i t s  will  always be o f f e r e d f o r s a l e or r e n t i n the market.  Existing  housing i s h i g h l y c o m p e t i t i v e i n the housing market. numbers of e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g the m a r k e t a b i l i t y  u n i t s are o f f e r e d  of newly c o n s t r u c t e d  q u a l i t y , w i l l be r e s t r i c t e d and  If large  f o r s a l e or  u n i t s , of  rent  comparable  p r i c e l e v e l s w i l l be  depressed.  A shortage of o f f e r i n g s of e x i s t i n g accommodation, r e l a t i v e to demand, w i l l i n c r e a s e  p r i c e s and  stimulate  new  construction  activity. The  p r i n c i p a l b a r r i e r to the c o n s t r u c t i o n  of l a r g e volumes fi 3  of new  dwelling  I f net a d d i t i o n s 62 63  u n i t s i s the dominance of the e x i s t i n g stock. t o - t h e housing stock exceed household formation  Pennance, F. G. , Housing Market Analysis and Policy, Institute of Economic A f f a i r s , Hobart Papers, No. 48, London, page 15. Grigsby, W. G. , Housing Markets and Public Policy, University of P e n n s y l v a n i a Press, P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1963, page 179.  and  thereby cause i n c r e a s e d  e x i s t i n g stock w i l l f a l l .  vacancy-, p r i c e s and r e n t s  As a r e s u l t , b u i l d e r s drop t h e i r  p r i c e s and reduce t h e i r c o n s t r u c t i o n The  i n the  o f new homes.  L e v e l o f House P r i c e s Because o f the d u r a b i l i t y o f d w e l l i n g  u n i t s and the l a r g e  numbers o f the s t a n d i n g stock of houses, r e l a t i v e t o the construction  of a d d i t i o n a l u n i t s i n any one y e a r , the l e v e l o f  house p r i c e s a t any one time w i l l be dermined by the q u a n t i t y and  q u a l i t y of the s t a n d i n g stock o f housing and the extent  of demand f o r the s t a n d i n g stock.  I t i s the average p r i c e o f the  standing stock t h a t determines the s a l e s p r i c e s o f newly con64 s t r u c t e d housing u n i t s and not the other way around. A b u i l d e r contemplating development w i l l  look t o the  e x i s t i n g l e v e l of house p r i c e s f o r guidance on the p o s s i b l e value of new housing u n i t s i n a g i v e n l o c a t i o n .  In the l i g h t  of c u r r e n t  house p r i c e s and h i s l e v e l of development  (material,  labour and f i n a n c i n g )  the b u i l d e r w i l l  the maximum b i d he can a f f o r d t o make f o r land, developer's p r o f i t .  costs  determine  allowing  Although some developers may  fora  curtail  b u i l d i n g because they f i n d land p r i c e s too h i g h t o support p r o f i t a b l e b u i l d i n g , g i v e n the e x i s t i n g l e v e l of house p r i c e s , it  i s the c o m p e t i t i o n between developers t h a t ensures  s i t e s go t o the top bidder.by house p r i c e s r a t h e r  that  Land p r i c e s are thus determined  than the other way a r o u n d . ^ Man.kct knalykik  Hence,  64  Pennance, F. G. , Hoaxing  and Policy,  page 33.  65  Hamilton, S. W. , Public Land Banking - Real on. llluAionatty Zcncjith ?, F a c u l t y o f Commerce and Business A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, January, 1974, page 5.  l a n d c o s t s are a f u n c t i o n of new are determined  house v a l u e s , which, i n t u r n ,  by the p r i c e o f e x i s t i n g houses.  Increases i n Supply Muth has s t a t e d t h a t the supply of urban housing depends upon both p r o d u c t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s and the supply of p r o d u c t i v e f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g l a n d , t o the housing i n d u s t r y . A s mentioned e a r l i e r , i n c r e a s e s i n the supply of housing a t any one can be brought  about i n t h r e e ways:  time  (1) by net c o n v e r s i o n s  (conversions minus mergers) of e x i s t i n g p r o p e r t i e s ; (2) by i n c r e a s i n g the p e r c e n t of the t o t a l stock i n v o l v e d i n market t r a n s a c t i o n s ; and (1)  (3) by new c o n s t r u c t i o n .  Conversions  Conversion i n v o l v e s the c r e a t i o n o f two or more new  units  from fewer u n i t s through s t r u c t u r a l a l t e r a t i o n s or change i n use.  Mergers, on the other hand, r e s u l t i n a r e d u c t i o n i n  housing supply as u n i t s are l o s t by combining i n t o fewer u n i t s through  two  or more u n i t s  s t r u c t u r a l a l t e r a t i o n s or change i n use  Conversions or redevelopment to a g r e a t e r i n t e n s i t y o f r e s i d e n t i a l use u s u a l l y takes p l a c e i n the o l d e r segments of the housing stock.  The o l d e r the housing stock the g r e a t e r w i l l  the o p p o r t u n i t y t o add to the housing supply through  conversions  The c o n v e r s i o n or merger of e x i s t i n g p r o p e r t i e s i s a r a p i d response  by net c o n v e r s i o n and those produced  by  c o n s t r u c t i o n ; i t i s , t h e r e f o r e , d i f f i c u l t t o estimate  66  fairly  of housing supply t o changing demand c o n d i t i o n s .  Canadian housing s t a t i s t i c s do not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between u n i t s produced  be  new  new the  Muth, R. F., "Urban R e s i d e n t i a l Land and Housing Markets", I-6.6a.e-6 in Ufi.ba.ri Economics, P e r l o f f & Wingo, e d i t o r s , Johns Hopkins P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e , 1968, page 286.  volume of such changes. have estimated  Hoover and V e r n o n ,  t h a t conversions  u/  and  Kristof  corresponded to about a t e n t h  of the aggregate i n c r e a s e i n d w e l l i n g u n i t s i n New These new  u n i t s would thus amount to a very  the market supply  of d w e l l i n g u n i t s .  York.  small p o r t i o n of  Because of the  relative  newness and d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r a l types of the housing of Canada and  B r i t i s h Columbia, conversions  would be  to p l a y an even smaller r o l e i n the market supply than i n d i c a t e d f o r New Demolition u n i t s and  stock expected  of housing  York.  of d w e l l i n g u n i t s reduces the stock of  thus the market supply  of d w e l l i n g u n i t s .  the r e l a t i v e newness of housing stock w i t h i n B r i t i s h demolitions  0 0  dwelling Due  to  Columbia  can be expected to have only a minor e f f e c t on  the  69 housing supply (2)  i n B r i t i s h Columbia.  Percent  of Stock Involved  The market supply  i n Market  Transactions  of housing can a l s o be augmented by  i n c r e a s i n g the number of u n i t s of the e x i s t i n g stock i n market t r a n s a c t i o n s .  Some u n i t s may  involved  be h e l d o f f the market;  i n c r e a s e s i n the l e v e l of p r i c e s would b r i n g these u n i t s back 67  Hoover, E. H.; Vernon, R. , Anatomy Press, New York, 1962, page 189.  of a Metropo l i s ,  Anchor  68  K r i s t o f , F. S., "Housing P o l i c y Goals and the Turnover of Housing", Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, Volume 31, Number 2, August 1965, pages 232-245.  69  In 1972 b u i l d i n g permits were i s s u e d i n Vancouver a l l o w i n g f o r the d e m o l i t i o n of 560 d w e l l i n g u n i t s while permits were used f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n of 2,644 d w e l l i n g u n i t s . C i t y of Vancouver, Construction, Demolition and Maintenance A c t i v i t y , Information and S t a t i s t i c s Report Number 8. Department of Planning and C i v i c Development, June 197 3, page 5.  81  t o the market.  More u n i t s may be brought i n t o the market  when, as p r i c e s r i s e , other  t h i n g s remaining constant,  owners  o f f e r t h e i r u n i t s t o the market t o c a p i t a l i z e on the higher prices.  A d d i t i o n a l u n i t s may be added t o the market  through d o u b l i n g  up and more i n t e n s i v e use of d w e l l i n g  thus f r e e i n g u n i t s t o the market. percent  of stock  supply units,  The a f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g t h e  i n v o l v e d i n market t r a n s a c t i o n s may, however,  have o n l y l i m i t e d a f f e c t on i n c r e a s i n g t h e supply  of dwelling  u n i t s as the r e n t e r or s e l l e r of a d w e l l i n g u n i t i s u s u a l l y simultaneously  a purchaser o r r e n t e r , unless  he i s moving t o  another housing market. The turnover  r a t e o f the housing stock  i s the r a t i o o f the  number o f s i n g l e f a m i l y homes (new and e x i s t i n g ) t r a d e d a given  during  time p e r i o d and the t o t a l housing stock a t the end o f  that period.  A value  o f 0.1 f o r turnover,  average, houses change t i t l e  means t h a t on the  once every t e n years.  of s i n g l e f a m i l y homes i n M e t r o p o l i t a n  In a study  Vancouver between 194 9-  71 1963  i t was found t h a t the aggregate turnover  rate exhibited  a d i s t i n c t downward t r e n d as w e l l as c y c l i c a l p a t t e r n s g e n e r a l l y conformed t o changes i n aggregate economic The o v e r a l l turnover  which  activity.  r a t e was equal t o 0.135 i n 1949; t h a t i s ,  on the average, houses changed t i t l e once every 7.5 y e a r s . Short  run f l u c t u a t i o n s a s i d e , the turnover  rate d r i f t e d steadily  70  B r i t i s h Columbia, December 1974, Landlords threatened t o withhold vacant r e n t a l u n i t s from the market i n p r o t e s t of P r o v i n c i a l Rent C o n t r o l L e g i s l a t i o n .  71  White, P., Mao, J . C. T., Ghert, B. I . , " F l u c t u a t i o n s i n the Turnover of S i n g l e Family Houses", an unpublished paper, F a c u l t y of Commerce, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1966.  82  downward a f t e r 1949 1963,  u n t i l i t reached a value of about  w i t h houses changing t i t l e once every 12.5  average.  Through r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i t was  variables:  completions, the percentage  0.08  years on the  found t h a t three  of the p o p u l a t i o n  w i t h i n the 35-44 year age group a n d . r e n t / p r i c e r a t i o s , for  approximately  turnover r a t e .  in  accounted  85 percent of the v a r i a t i o n i n the o v e r a l l  An i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n or an i n c r e a s e i n the  c o s t of r e n t i n g versus owning would cause the turnover r a t e of houses to r i s e .  Completion  r a t i o s , the number of  expressed as a percentage of housing stock, was  completions  the key  i n e x p l a i n i n g turnover r a t e s as i t e x p l a i n e d 53.4  variable  percent of the  72 t o t a l v a r i a t i o n i n the turnover r a t e . (3) In  New C o n s t r u c t i o n most i n s t a n c e s , the housing i n v e n t o r y of an area under-  goes i t s g r e a t e s t change as a r e s u l t of a d d i t i o n s made through new  r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n . The c o n s t r u c t i o n of new  housing  i s a lengthy and expensive process and i t i s dependent upon a number of f a c t o r s which a f f e c t the volume of non-farm r e s i d e n t i a l 73 construction: L i s t of P o t e n t i a l 1.  Determinants:  Change i n p o p u l a t i o n a. Increases i n p o p u l a t i o n b. Changes i n the age-sex composition c. Changes i n the number, type, and s i z e of d. I n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n and immigration  households  72  Ibid,  page 41.  73  G r e b l e r , L.; M a i s e l , S. J . , "Determinants of R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n : A Review of Present Knowledge", Impacts of Monetary P o l i c y , Commli,i,lon on Monet/ and C/izdlt, PrenticeH a l l Inc., Englewood C l i f f s , J . J . , 1963, pages 476-477.  83  L i s t of P o t e n t i a l Determinants cont'd.: 2.  Changes i n income and  employment  a. T o t a l d i s p o s a b l e p e r s o n a l income: expected b. Income d i s t r i b u t i o n c. Employment and unemployment  past,  present,  3.  Consumer a s s e t h o l d i n g s and t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y ' l i q u i d a s s e t s and e q u i t i e s i n e x i s t i n g houses.  4.  Changes i n p r i c e s of houses a. The p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y of housing r e l a t i v e to other prices b. The shape of the c o n s t r u c t i o n supply and c o s t curves  5.  R e l a t i o n s h i p between occupancy c o s t s and dwellings  p r i c e s of  a. C r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y and the c o s t of c r e d i t b. Real E s t a t e taxes and o p e r a t i n g expenses c. D e p r e c i a t i o n d. Imputed c o s t s of e q u i t y funds 6.  Consumer t a s t e s and  preferences  7.  Net replacement demand f o r d w e l l i n g u n i t s demolished or otherwise removed from the i n v e n t o r y l e s s net conversions and mergers of e x i s t i n g u n i t s  8.  Conditions  of e x i s t i n g housing  supply  a. U t i l i z a t i o n of housing i n v e n t o r y (1) Vacancies (2) I n t e n s i t y of occupancy b. P r i c e s and r e n t s of e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g c. Q u a l i t y , l o c a t i o n 9.  units  Reactions t o changes i n demand a. B u i l d e r s ' o r g a n i z a t i o n and p r o f i t e x p e c t a t i o n s b. I n v e s t o r s ' o r g a n i z a t i o n and p r o f i t e x p e c t a t i o n s c. Market s t r u c t u r e and market  information  A n a l y s i s of the determinants of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i s complicated  not only by the  l a r g e number of p o t e n t i a l f o r c e s  impinging on r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n but a l s o by of some of these f a c t o r s .  interdependence  Many of the f a c t o r s l i s t e d by  Grebler  84  and M a i s e l a f f e c t supply through t h e i r i n f l u e n c e upon the demand f o r housing.  These f a c t o r s were d e a l t w i t h e a r l i e r  w i l l not be repeated  (see Chapter  I I I , Demand f o r Housing, f o r  a more complete  d i s c u s s i o n o f these i t e m s ) .  Determinants  Supply  Housing  of  and  supply, by d e f i n i t i o n , i s l i m i t e d t o a p o r t i o n of  the stock a l r e a d y produced  plus that i n production.  Increases  i n the supply of housing are determined  by a number of  (1) the a v a i l a b i l i t y of mortgage funds,  (2) entrepreneur's  r e l u c t a n c e to change p r i c e and r e n t s , to b u i l d , and  factors:  (3) b u i l d e r s ' d e c i s i o n s  (4) the supply of p r o d u c t i v e f a c t o r s , l a n d ,  c o n s t r u c t i o n , labour and m a t e r i a l . (1)  A v a i l a b i l i t y of Mortgage Funds  Mortgage money i s i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h other f i n a n c i a l needs and as a r e s u l t f l u c t u a t e s i n a v a i l a b i l i t y through the c o m p e t i t i o n f o r funds i n the money markets.  A r e d u c t i o n i n the  availability  of mortgage funds, other t h i n g s remaining c o n s t a n t , can the.number of u n i t s which otherwise would be o f f e r e d .  reduce Availa-  b i l i t y of mortgage funds a l s o a f f e c t s the l e v e l of housing demand, r e d u c i n g demand when there i s a r e d u c t i o n i n a v a i l a b i l i t y . Monetary p o l i c i e s of the F e d e r a l Government, administered by the Bank of Canada, i n f l u e n c e the supply of money i n the economy. P o l i c i e s which tend to i n c r e a s e the supply of money a v a i l a b l e i n the economy w i l l l e a d t o r e d u c t i o n s i n i n t e r e s t r a t e s .  Lower  i n t e r e s t r a t e s s t i m u l a t e investment and w i l l tend to i n c r e a s e the c o n s t r u c t i o n of investment p r o p e r t i e s such as  apartments.  Higher i n t e r e s t r a t e s w i l l tend to reduce such investment. i n t e r e s t r a t e s imply lower c r e d i t c o s t s and as such would  Lower  85  s t i m u l a t e the demand f o r housing and hence c o n s t r u c t i o n i n response to t h i s demand, i f the supply of housing i s low. Higher i n t e r e s t r a t e s w i l l reduce such c o n s t r u c t i o n . The supply of housing i s a l s o s e n s i t i v e to the c o s t of money.  In p e r i o d s of t i g h t money developers w i l l postpone  c o n s t r u c t i o n of housing u n i t s , a n t i c i p a t i n g t h a t f a m i l i e s be l e s s a b l e to borrow.  the will  Developers w i l l a l s o f i n d t h a t they  themselves w i l l not be able t o r a i s e money a t p r o f i t a b l e or a t t r a c t i v e r a t e s d u r i n g t i g h t money c o n d i t i o n s and hence w i l l reduce or postpone  the development of new  In h i s study.of the housing market m  housing  supplies. 74  Canada, Smith  found  t h a t housing s t a r t s were very s e n s i t i v e to both the c o s t a v a i l a b i l i t y of mortgage c r e d i t .  and  He estimated t h a t a r e d u c t i o n  i n bond r a t e s of 1 percent appeared  to generate approximately  7 p e r c e n t a d d i t i o n a l housing s t a r t s a n n u a l l y , t h a t a 1 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n the N. H. A. r a t e reduced housing s t a r t s by  approx-  imately 9 percent a n n u a l l y , and t h a t a 1 percent i n c r e a s e i n both the N. H. A. and c o n v e n t i a l mortgage r a t e reduced housing s t a r t s by approximately 12 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y . (2)  Entrepreneurs Reluctance t o Change P r i c e s and  Rents  The r e l u c t a n c e , o f b u i l d e r s , owners and l a n d l o r d s to lower p r i c e s and r e n t s t o meet changing market c o n d i t i o n s can market s u p p l i e s , tenure r e l a t i o n s h i p s and vacancy s e l l e r of a new  or e x i s t i n g housing u n i t , who  affect  rates.  A  i s unable t o  d i s p o s e of the u n i t a t the p r i c e he wants, w i l l r e n t the u n i t and wait f o r the market t o r i s e . 74  T h i s would t e m p o r a r i l y s h i f t  Smith, L. B., Housing In Canada: Performance, page 61.  Market  S t r u c t u r e and  Policy  86  tenure p a t t e r n s o f the housing supply,  i n c r e a s e the supply o f  r e n t a l accommodation and reduce the supply  o f self-owned u n i t s .  A l a n d l o r d who i s unable to r e n t u n i t s a t a c e r t a i n p r i c e l e v e l may accept vacant u n i t s f o r s h o r t p e r i o d s o f intended  vacancy,  r a t h e r than lower h i s r e n t s i n order t o r e n t the vacant u n i t s . He has, as a r e s u l t o f h i s a c t i o n s , withdrawn r e n t a l u n i t s from the:-.market u n t i l r e n t s  rise.  Even i f p r i c e s are r i s i n g , market.  A b u i l d e r a n t i c i p a t i n g a continued  p r i c e s , may withhold pected  some u n i t s may be h e l d o f f the  gains  r i s e i n house  completed u n i t s from the market i f the ex-:  i n p r i c e are g r e a t e r than the f i n a n c i n g c o s t s f o r  the p e r i o d t h e accommodation i s h e l d o f f t h e market. Changes i n p r i c e l e v e l s may r e s u l t i n changes i n the tenure p a t t e r n s o f the housing stock.  I f the p r i c e of u n i t s f o r s a l e  i s r i s i n g f a s t e r than the r e n t f o r comparable u n i t s , owners o f r e n t a l accommodation may o f f e r t h e i r u n i t s f o r s a l e i n the 75 self-owned market. (3)  Builders' Decisions.to Build  B u i l d e r s ' d e c i s i o n s t o b u i l d or not b u i l d are dependent upon p r o j e c t e x p e c t a t i o n s .  I f builders conjecture  t h a t the  i n c r e a s e i n aggregate demand f o r housing d u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d i s going t o exceed the number o f completions d u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d , then c o n j e c t u r e d  p r o f i t s from the a n t i c i p a t e d l a c k o f supply  w i l l appear r e l a t i v e l y high.  B u i l d e r s w i l l i n c r e a s e the number  of s t a r t s and i n c r e a s e the r a t e a t which houses a l r e a d y c o n s t r u c t i o n are completed. 75  under  On the other hand, i f b u i l d e r s  i . e . Conversion o f apartments t o condominiums.  87  foresee t h a t completions w i l l exceed the i n c r e a s e i n aggregate demand and vacancies  w i l l r e s u l t , conjectured  d e c l i n e , i f not disappear,  and  profits  will  b u i l d e r s w i l l cut back on  housing  "7 6  s t a r t s and (4) The  completions.  Cost and A v a i l a b i l i t y of Land, C o n s t r u c t i o n Materials a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d , b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s ,  contractors but  slow down on  and  Labour  labour,  entrepreneurs i s o f t e n taken f o r granted,  l a c k of a v a i l a b i l i t y of these f a c t o r s o f t e n hampers the  flow of new  u n i t s i n t o the housing supply.  L. B. Smith, i n h i s  study of Housing i n Canada, found t h a t r i s i n g wages, land and  and  costs,  the c o s t of temporary f i n a n c i n g a l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t 77  c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s and Construction due  thereby r e t a r d housing  labour, although perhaps l i m i t e d i n q u a n t i t y  to Union a p p r e n t i c e s h i p  programs, i s g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e  f o r r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n as labour commercial and  starts.  can e a s i l y s h i f t between  r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i n response to changing  market c o n d i t i o n s .  Union and  non-Union labour  is readily  available for residential construction in s u f f i c i e n t quantities as not to t h r e a t e n or r e s t r i c t the housing supply B u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s may supply,  but  at times be t e m p o r a r i l y  i n short  shortages are not of s u f f i c i e n t magnitude to  s e r i o u s l y d i s r u p t the housing supply The  process.  a v a i l a b i l i t y of land has  process.  a much more dramatic a f f e c t  upon the c o n s t r u c t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation.  The  76  Naylor, T. H., "The Impact of F i s c a l and Monetary P o l i c y on The Housing Market" , law and Contemporary Problems, Durham, North C a r o l i n a , Volume 32, 1967, page 387.  77  Smith, L. B. , Housing in Canada'P o l i c y Performance, page 62.  Market  Structure  and  88  O n t a r i o Task Force on Housing found t h a t of the four components of housing p r o d u c t i o n :  l a n d , m a t e r i a l s , labour and money, 78  only land was  i n s h o r t supply  i n Ontario.  T h i s problem,  however, does not e x i s t to the same degree w i t h i n Columbia at the present  British  time.  There does not appear to be a shortage of r e s i d e n t i a l w i t h i n the Province  at the present  time.  housing c o n s t r u c t i o n had been experienced  Record l e v e l s of in British  u n t i l the downturn i n the world economy i n 1974. w i t h i n the Province  u n i t s r e q u i r e s land.  The  Columbia  Housing  rose from 17,329 u n i t s i n 1963  l e v e l of 37,627 u n i t s i n 1973.  c o n s t r u c t i o n of housing  Without adequate s u p p l i e s of land  The  the  homes and of land The  T h i s demand i n c r e a s e d the value of  the p r i c e of l a n d .  one  of  existing  Land p r i c e s are not high because  shortages. supply  of land i s o f t e n represented  i n e l a s t i c ; there any  could  r e c o r d l e v e l s of housing c o n s t r u c t i o n  have been f u e l e d by unprecedented growth i n the l e v e l housing demand.  starts  to a r e c o r d  r e c o r d l e v e l s of c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t have been experienced not have o c c u r r e d .  land  p l a c e and  f i l l or drainage.  as being  perfectly  i s o n l y a c e r t a i n amount of useable land i n i t can only be i n c r e a s e d by The  supply  land  reclamation,  o f r e s i d e n t i a l space can  be  i n c r e a s e d through higher d e n s i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n , the proper a b l i n g zoning by-laws, and  the p r o v i s i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  systems t h a t i n c r e a s e the e f f e c t i v e amount of developable 78  en-  land.  Uosiking Pape,su> : Volume. .1, ( a ) , Housing Issues and Housing Programs", Advisory Task Force on Housing P o l i c y , Province of O n t a r i o , June 1973, page 6.  89  The  Ontario  Task Force on Housing found t h a t the supply  housing i s a f f e c t e d to a l a r g e extent s e r v i c e d land, by the m u n i c i p a l c i p a l and  of  by the a v a i l a b i l i t y  of  f i n a n c i a l s i t u a t i o n , by muni-  p r o v i n c i a l r e g u l a t i o n s governing s u b d i v i s i o n  approval,  79 and  by the l e n g t h of time r e q u i r e d  for production.  In a study  of the s u b d i v i s i o n approval  process i n M e t r o p o l i t a n  Young found t h a t the supply  of new  housing u n i t s was  because the p r o d u c t i o n of s e r v i c e d l o t s i s r e t a r d e d present system of.c a p p r o v a ,l . 80 The  p r i c e of r e s i d e n t i a l l o t s i s r i s i n g but,  as  Vancouver, hampered by  the  pointed  out by e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n s , the p r i c e of land i s determined the p r i c e of e x i s t i n g houses. e x i s t i n g houses and developers'  In the l i g h t of the p r i c e of  the l e v e l of development c o s t s ,  total  demand determines the l e v e l of land p r i c e s t h a t  each i n d i v i d u a l developer takes as g i v e n . ers may  by  Although some develop-  c u r t a i l b u i l d i n g because they f i n d land p r i c e s too  high  to support p r o f i t a b l e b u i l d i n g , given the l e v e l of p r i c e s of e x i s t i n g houses, i t i s the competition  between developers t h a t  ensures t h a t s i t e s go to the h i g h e s t b i d d e r .  The  p r i c e of  land  i s a r e s i d u a l determined by the p r i c e l e v e l of e x i s t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s , the c o s t of c o n s t r u c t i o n and  the l e v e l of b u i l d e r s ' p r o f i t s .  The  ( m a t e r i a l and  p r i c e of land i s determined  by the p r i c e of e x i s t i n g houses; the p r i c e of houses i s not mined by the p r i c e of l a n d .  labour),  deter-  I f a c t i o n s were taken to c o n t r o l  the  p r i c e of land i n attempts to f r e e z e or lower house p r i c e s , the  80  Young, G. A. , The Municipal Subdlvlslon Approval Process In Metropolitan Vancouvcr; an unpublished Master of Science T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver, 1974, page 111.  impact would be f e l t not i n lower house p r i c e s , but i n c r e a s e d developers' p r o f i t s .  Only over time, t o the extent t h a t  a d d i t i o n s t o the housing stock rose r e l a t i v e t o demand as a r e s u l t of the i n c r e a s e d p r o f i t a b i l i t y  of b u i l d i n g , would any 81  tendency emerge f o r lower house p r i c e s .  *  81  Pennance, F. G. , Housing  Uafikct  Knalyhii,  and Policy,  page 34  91  CHAPTER VI BRITISH COLUMBIA HOUSING TRENDS The housing stock of an area i s not s t a t i c . changing due to new  It i s constantly  c o n s t r u c t i o n and the c o n v e r s i o n , merger and  d e m o l i t i o n of e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g u n i t s .  Changes i n housing stock  g r e a t l y a f f e c t the supply of housing and the a b i l i t y of the housing stock t o meet the housing demands of a community.  When  the housing stock f a i l s t o meet the housing demands of the community, c r i e s of "housing c r i s i s "  arise.  Through an  examination  of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and trends i n the B r i t i s h Columbia  housing  stock, we w i l l be able to judge the adequacy of the housing supply process and the housing stock w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e and answer the q u e s t i o n : Housing  "Is t h e r e a supply  crisis?".  Stock  The housing stock of B r i t i s h Columbia,  as i n d i c a t e d by the  82 1971  Census of Canada,  ' 83 u n i t s i n 1971, up 45.3  totalled  667,546 occupied d w e l l i n g  p e r c e n t from 459,532 u n i t s i n  oj Canada,  Housing,  93-727 , June 1973,  1961.  82  7977 CznAu*  page  3-1.  83  Vacant or unoccupied d w e l l i n g u n i t s are a l s o p a r t of the housing stock. The 1971 Census of Canada d i d not survey vacant d w e l l i n g u n i t s . A rough i n d i c a t i o n o f the number of unoccupied u n i t s i n Canada, a t the time of the 1971 census can be gained from data on the number o f newly completed and unoccupied d w e l l i n g u n i t s and apartment vacancy r a t e s . At the end of the second q u a r t e r of 1971 the number of newly completed and unoccupied u n i t s i n m e t r o p o l i t a n a a r e a s throughout Canada t o t a l l e d 14,379 u n i t s ; 4,396 s i n g l e detached and duplex u n i t s and 9,98 3 row and apartment u n i t s . (SOURCE: Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1972, CMHC, t a b l e 16). In June 1971 vacancy r a t e s i n e x i s t i n g r e n t a l apartment u n i t s were 3.9 p e r c e n t i n Vancouver, 4.1 percent i n V i c t o r i a , 10.7 p e r c e n t i n C a l g a r y , 2.7 p e r c e n t i n Toronto and 7.0 p e r c e n t i n Montreal. (SOURCE: Apartment Vacancy Survey, M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a , CMHC, June 1974, t a b l e 3).  92  The  r a t e of growth of B r i t i s h  far  above t h e  s t o c k and 60.0  32.5  increase i n housing  Housing stock C o l u m b i a and  figures twelve  the Province,  The  f o r 1961,  1966  towns, c i t i e s  are presented  supply  housing  between 1961  and  and  and  i n Table  1971,  with  the  the  1971,  28,.  a 18 0.8  percent  percent;  p o l i t a n Vancouver's  51.3  housing  stock  i n any  or approximately many a r e a s  34.4  in British  growth i n h o u s i n g  to r e f l e c t the  d e v e l o p m e n t and British housing Almost  Province  1971  Kelowna.  stock  are r a r e l y over  to the  percent  size  largest  rapid  i n the Province,  housing  rates  no  of  industrial  areas.  and  Vancouver's  i t s housing  represented  stock, while  the  percent,  stock.  of a l l d w e l l i n g u n i t s w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e  city  of the P r o v i n c i a l  Metro-  However,  higher  were w i t h i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n V a n c o u v e r a r e a .  second  percent;  3  period.  i s d o m i n a t e d by  of the c i t y  during  a d d i t i o n s to  g r e a t e r than  a ten year  stock  stock  percent;>and  Historically,  i n response  to the  Kamloops  i n c r e a s e d 157  p o p u l a t i o n growth i n those  due  a cross-section  increased greatly  C o l u m b i a have e x p e r i e n c e d  Columbia's housing  units, 52  year  within  Province.  Kelowna's 54.7  percent  stock  British  increase i n i t s housing  percent.  one  1971.  g r e a t e s t growth o c c u r r i n g i n  the p e r i o d ; P r i n c e George's housing P o r t A l b e r n i ' s 76.2  for  and  T h e s e towns were  Kamloops, P r i n c e G e o r g e , P o r t A l b e r n i and experienced  Territories  metropolitan areas  stock throughout  stock throughout  and  Northwest  been  housing  s t o c k between 1961  the b a s i s of a v a i l a b l e data  of housing  s t o c k has  i n c r e a s e i n the n a t i o n a l  s e c o n d o n l y t o t h e Yukon and  percent  c h o s e n on  percent  Columbia's housing  other  Victoria, only  single  10  in the  percent  city  o r town  TABLE 28 OCCUPIED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 1961, 1966, 1971  1 9 6 1 AREA  TOTAL  1 9 6 6  OWNED  RENTED  TOTAL  , OWNED  % CHANGE 1961-1971  1 9 7 1 RENTED  TOTAL  OWNED RENTED  1,968  1,111  3,161  2,061  TOTAL  OWNED  RENTED  1,100  14.4  14.6  14.0  DAWSON CREEK  2,763  1,748  965  3,079  KAMLOOPS  2,665  1,712  953  3,112  1,668  1,444  7,483  4,245  3,238  180.8  148.0  239.8  KELOWNA  4,138  3,001  1,137  5,400  3,501  1,899  6,402  4,100  2,302  54.7  36.6  102.5  NANAIMO  4,212  3,237  975  4,704  3,201  1,503  5,026  3,249  1,777  19.3  0.4  82.3  PENTICTON  4,059  2,881  1,178  4,726  3,380  1,346  5,864  4,191  1,673  44.5  45.5  42.0  PORT ALBERNI  3,225  2,217  1,008  3,821  2,530  1,291  5,682  3,859  1,823  76.2  74.1  80.9  PRINCE GEORGE  3,359  2,292 , 1,067  5,811  3,365  2,446  8,633  4,657  3,976  157.0  103.2  272.6  PRINCE RUPERT  3,099  1,821  1,278  3,684  2,068  1,616  4,293  2,260  2,033  38.5  24.1  59.1  T R A I L  3,353  2,206  1,147  3,522  2,331  1,191  3,557  2,364  1,193  6.1  7.2  4.0  VERNON  3,005  2,005  1,000  3,519  2,279  1,240  4,176  2,692  1,484  39.0  34.3  48.4  228,596  159,414  69,182  '.71,956  171,395  100,561  345,870  203,525  142,350  51.3  27.7  105.8  47,485  33,893  13,592  55,098  36,653  18,445  66,365  40,735  25,625  39.8  20.2  88.5  326,090 133,442  543,075  359,272  183,803  667,546  402,781  244,765  45.3  29.7  83.4  METRO VANCOUVER METRO VICTORIA B.C.  459,532  Source:  Census of Canada, Housing, 93-727, Vol. II, Part 3 (Bulletin 23-2), June 1973, Tables 3,7.  94  i  represented more than 2 percent o f the P r o v i n c i a l stock (see t a b l e 29.), The P r o v i n c i a l housing s t o c k i s predominantly urban. 1971,  In  78 percent o f a l l d w e l l i n g u n i t s were l o c a t e d i n urban  areas.  Housing demand and housing markets are l o c a l i n nature.  In B r i t i s h Columbia  the m a j o r i t y o f housing demand, and t h e r e -  f o r e supply, i s c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a few urban a r e a s . ( s e e t a b l e 29). For census purposes, and f o r t h i s t h e s i s , a household  con-  s i s t s o f a person o r group o f persons occupying one d w e l l i n g . A household u s u a l l y c o n s i s t s o f a f a m i l y group w i t h or without l o d g e r s , employees, e t c . However, i t may c o n s i s t o f two or more f a m i l i e s s h a r i n g a d w e l l i n g , or a group o f u n r e l a t e d persons or o f one person l i v i n g alone. comprise  As, by d e f i n i t i o n ,  households  those r e l a t e d or u n r e l a t e d persons occupying a d w e l l i n g  u n i t ; i n c r e a s e s i n the number o f households w i t h i n a housing market can only occur i f t h e r e are vacant housing u n i t s  into  which members of e x i s t i n g households can move, thereby forming new households  o f t h e i r own.  I f t h e r e are no vacant d w e l l i n g  u n i t s w i t h i n the e x i s t i n g s t o c k , i n c r e a s e s i n the number of households  can o n l y occur i f a d d i t i o n a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s are added  to the housing stock through c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new u n i t s o r conversion of e x i s t i n g units. the number of households  As a r e s u l t , the r a t e o f growth i n  i s an i n d i c a t o r of the adequacy o f the  housing supply process and the growth o f the housing stock. Between 1966 and 1971, the number o f households Columbia  in British  i n c r e a s e d 23 percent from 543,075 t o 6 68,300 w h i l e the  p o p u l a t i o n grew o n l y 16.6 percent from 1,873,674 t o 2,184,621.  TABLE 29  B.C. HOUSING STOCK  •-. ' '.' AREA  HOUSING STOCK  .  1971  AREA STOCK AS A PER CENT OF B.C. HOUSING  DAWSON CREEK  3,160  0.47  KAMLOOPS  7,480  1.12  KELOWNA  6,400  0.96  NANAIMO  5,025  0.75  PENTICTON  5,865  0.88  PORT ALBERNI  5,685  0.85  PRINCE GEORGE  8,630  1.44  PRINCE RUPERT  4,290  0.64  T R A I L  3,560  0.05  VERNON  4,175  0.06  METRO VANCOUVER  345,870  51.81  METRO VICTORIA  66,365  9.94  667,545  100.00  521,010 146,540  78.05 21.95  B.C. URBAN AREAS RURAL AREAS  96  The growth  i n the number of households has been more r a p i d than  p o p u l a t i o n growth i n both Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia. Canada, between 1961  In  and 1971, p o p u l a t i o n rose 18.3 p e r c e n t from  18,238,247 t o 21,568,311, w h i l e the number of households rose 32.6  p e r c e n t from 4,554,736 t o 6,041,302.  During the same  p e r i o d , i n B r i t i s h Columbia, p o p u l a t i o n grew 34.1  from 1,629,082  to 2,184,621, w h i l e the number of households grew 45.4 p e r c e n t from 459,534 to 668,303 f o r the h i g h e s t p r o v i n c i a l r a t e of growth, second o n l y to the Yukon and Northwest  Territories  (see t a b l e 14).  In l i g h t of these f i g u r e s , i t would appear t h a t the housing supply process w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia has been f u n c t i o n i n g adequately as the number of households has been i n c r e a s i n g a t h i g h r a t e s . B r i t i s h Columbia has i n r e c e n t years had s m a l l e r households, a lower average number of persons per household than any other p r o v i n c e i n Canada average was and 3.2  (see t a b l e 14).  In 1961 the P r o v i n c i a l  3.4 persons per household.  i n 1971;  i n d i c a t i n g the growth  It f e l l  to 3.3  i n 1966  i n the supply of housing  t h a t has occured w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia. c o u l d not have o c c u r r e d without an adequate Between 1961 and 1971 B r i t i s h Columbia 30).  This  supply o f housing.  the number of households w i t h i n  i n c r e a s e d approximately.45 p e r c e n t (see t a b l e  Family households i n c r e a s e d 37 p e r c e n t ; one f a m i l y  house-  holds i n c r e a s e d 38 p e r c e n t and the number of two or more f a m i l y households decreased 2 p e r c e n t , i n d i c a t i n g an improvement i n housi n g supply over the decade. Non Non  f a m i l y households however, showed even g r e a t e r  increases.  f a m i l y households r e p r e s e n t e d 22 p e r c e n t o f a l l households  TABLE  30  HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE BRITISH COLUMBIA 1961, 1966 and 19 71  1961 Number FAMILY  HOUSEHOLDS  1 Family  1 Person 2 or More  TOTAL  % Change 1966-1971  % Change 1961-1971  83  434,671  80  520,655  78  + +20  + 37  368,732  80  426,629  78  510,253  76  .+20  + 38  10,616  03  8,042  02  10,400  02  +29  (02)  HOUSEHOLDS  80,184  17  108,404  20  147,645  22  +36  + 84  Only  62,079  14  86,939  16  114,645  17  +32  + 85  18,105  '-03  21 ,465  04  33 ,000  05  +54  + 82  459,532  100  543,075  100  668,300  100  + 23  + 45  Households  FAMILY  1971 Number %  379,348  2 or more F a m i l y  NON  1966 Number %  Households  Persons  HOUSEHOLDS  Sources : 1 .  1971 C e n s u s o f C a n a d a , 93-703, T a b l e  8.  2 .  1966 C e n s u s o f C a n a d a , 93-605, T a b l e  29.  3 .  1961 C e n s u s o f Canada, 93-531, T a b l e  89.  TABLE 3 1 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE — BRITISH COLUMBIA: 1966, 1971  F A M I L Y ONE-FAMILY  H O U S E H O L D S  HOUSEHOLDS  F A M I L Y O F HOUSEHOLD HEAD WITH  WITHOUT ADDITIONAL  TOTAL LOCALITY  1966:  B.C.  URBAN RURAL  1971: B.C.: URBAN RURAL  HOUSEHOLDS  TOTAL  TOTAL  TOTAL  PERSONS  '  ADDITIONAL  FAMILY THAN  Jfc-CLUDING  WITH NO  THAT  OF  FAMILY OF  FAMILY OF  HOUSEHOLD  HOUSEHOLD  HOUSEHOLD  PERSONS  HEAD  543,075 422,940 120,135  434,671 333,746 100,925  426,629 327,410 99,219  423,697 325,112 98,585  386,707 295,538 91,169  36,990 29,574 7,416  2,932 2,298 634  668,300 521,660 146,645  520,655 397,345 1.23,310  510,255 389,225 121,025  506,730 386,505 120,220  460,495 350,075 110,420  46,235 36,430 9,805  3,525 2,720 810  Source:  TWO OR MORE F A M I L Y HOUSEHOLDS  OTHER  TOTAL  HEAD  HEAD  NON-FAMILY  HOUSEHOLDS  ONE PERSON TOTAL  ONLY  TWO OR MORE PERSONS  8,042 6,336 1,706  7,960 6,273 1,687  82 63 19  108,404 89,194 19,210  86,939 70,836 16,103  21,465 18,353 3,107  8,115 2,285  10,285 8,030 2,260  115 90 20  147,645 124,310 23,330  114,645 95,975 18,675  33,000 28,345 4,660  1966 Census of Canada, 93-605, Table 29. 1971 Census of Canada, 93-703, Table 8.  o 00  99  i n 1971,  up from 17 percent i n 1961.  Non  f a m i l y households  i n c r e a s e d 84 percent over the decade; 1 person i n c r e a s e d 85 percent and two 82  households  or more person households i n c r e a s e d  percent. As i n c r e a s e s i n the number of households w i t h i n a  housing  market, g i v e n low vacancy r a t e s , can only occur i f a d d i t i o n a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s are added to the housing t h a t the housing  supply process  functioning well. non  stock, i t would appear  i n r e c e n t years has been  The number of households,  both f a m i l y and  f a m i l y , has been i n c r e a s i n g .  Types of S t r u c t u r e s As c o n s t r u c t i o n , a l t e r a t i o n or d e m o l i t i o n of housing u n i t s o c c u r s , the housing t u r e s generated the housing  stock i s changed.  Changes i n type of s t r u c -  by these o p e r a t i o n s can a l t e r the c h a r a c t e r of  stock and g r e a t l y a f f e c t the nature of  market o p e r a t i o n . between 1961  and  Such changes o c c u r r e d i n B r i t i s h  housing Columbia  1971.  The t y p i c a l d w e l l i n g u n i t w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia i s a s i n g l e detached  home, a s t r u c t u r e w i t h o n l y one d w e l l i n g ,  separated by open space from a l l other s t r u c t u r e s except i t s own  garage or shed.  The  s i n g l e detached  the B r i t i s h Columbia housing ishing.  In 1961,  80.0  detached. only 68.0  92.4  stock, but i t s dominance i s dimin-  percent of a l l d w e l l i n g u n i t s i n the  P r o v i n c e were s i n g l e detached urban and  d w e l l i n g dominates  u n i t s , w h i l e 75.7  percent of a l l  p e r c e n t - of a l l r u r a l d w e l l i n g s were s i n g l e -  In 1971,  however, the s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d u n i t  percent of the P r o v i n c i a l housing  represented  stock; 63.3  percent  TABLE 32  HOUSING STOCK, 1961  SINGLE DETACHED  AREA  SINGLE ATTACHED  APARTMENT OR FLAT  MOBILE HOME  TOTAL  DAWSON CREEK  2,269  180  238  KAMLOOPS  1,977  202  461  KELOWNA  3,327  206  605  —  4,138  NANAIMO  3,594  148  470  —  4,212  PENTICTON  3,643  341  —  4,059  PORT ALBERNI  2,410  144  641  PRINCE GEORGE  2,433  289  581  —  3,359  PRINCE RUPERT  2,082  262  740  —  3,099  T R A I L  2,463  133  752  —  3,353  VERNON  2,369  205  426  —  3,005  171,620  8,843  47,630  503  228,596  35,747  2,330  9,295  113  47,485  BRITISH COLUMBIA  367,663  19,577  68,632  3,660  459,532  U R B AN  258,655  15,176  66,584  1,444  341,559  RURAL  109,008  4,401  2,048  2,516  117,973  METRO VANCOUVER METRO VICTORIA  Source:  1961 C e n s u s o f C a n a d a 93-523, T a b l e s  2,763  —  2,665  3,225  5, 7, 8.  TABLE 33 HOUSING STOCK OCCUPIED DWELLINGS BY TENURE AND STRUCTURAL TYPE TYPE OF DWELLING  NUMBER OF UNITS  SINGLE ATTACHED A R E A  TOTAL  SINGLE DETACHED  1971  APARTMENT OR FLAT  TOTAL  DOUBLE HOUSE  OTHER  TOTAL  DUPLEX  OTHER  MOBILE 70  3,160  2,480  270  110  155  345  75  270  Owned Rented  2,060 1,100  1,930 550  25 240  10 95  15 140  35 305  20 50  20 250  KAMLOOPS  7,480  4,380  660  265  400  2,240  650  1,585  205  Owned Rented  4,245 3,240  3,630 750  115 550  60 200  55 345  305 1,935  225 425  75 1,510  200 5 .  6,400  4,365  445  300  145  1,565  455  1,115  20  4,100 2,300  3,760 605  110 335  80 225  30 115  210 1,355  180 275  35 1,080  5,025  3,635  235  135  95  1,150  235  920  3,250 1,780  3,055 580  50 185  30 110  20 75  140 1,005  100 135  40 875  PENTICTON  5,865  4,485  215  65  155  905  90  815  260  Owned Rented  4,195 1,675  3,795 685  65 155  20 .40  40 110  80 825  30 60  50 770  250 . io  DAWSON CREEK  KELOWNA Owne d Rented  NANAIMO Owned Rented  65 —  15 ——  10 .  5 5  TABLE 33 (Continued)  —  TYPE OF DWELLING NUMBER OF UNITS SINGLE ATTACHED A R E A  TOTAL  SINGLE DETACHED  TOTAL  PORT ALBERNI  5,685  4,190  300  3,860 1,825  3,605 580  8,630  DOUBLE HOUSE '  APARTMENT OR FLAT  OTHER  TOTAL  DUPLEX  OTHER  MOBILE  110  190  1,145  275  870  55  50 250  20 85  30 60  150 990  90 180  60 815  50 5  4,990  1,125  610  515  2,385  735  1,650  135  4,655 3,980  4,145 840  135 985  95 510  40 475  250 2,135  225 515  25 1,620  120 • 15  4,290  2,340  235  75 .  160  1,605  585  1,020  120  Rented  2,260 2,035  1,845 490  30 205  15. 55.  10 155  280 1,320  225 360  50 965  110 15  TRAIL  3,560  2,580  100  30  70  875  295  585  10  Owned Rented  2,365 1,190  2,200 375  15 55  —  30  10 60  135 735  100 190  40 540  VERNON  4,175  2,895  280  150  :  130  220  705  75  Owned Rented  2,690 1,485  2,450 445  55 230  35 115  35 115  925 120 805  40 140  40 665  65 10  Owned Rented PRINCE GEORGE Owned Rented PRINCE RUPERT Oxmed  '  5 —  TABLE 33 (Continued)  NUMBER OF UNITS  TYPE OF DWELLING  APARTMENT OR FLAT  SINGLE ATTACHED  TOTAL  SINGLE DETACHED  TOTAL  DOUBLE HOUSE  OTHER  TOTAL  DUPLEX  OTHER  MOBILE  345,870  216,455  13,260  5,915  7,350  113,945  12,925  101,015  2,215  203,525 142,350  189,405 27,050  3,325 9,940  1,365 4,555  1,960 5,385  8,720 105,220  4,905 8,020  3,810 97,200  2,070 140  66,365  42,875  3,365  2,015  1,350  19,490  2,390  17,105  630  40,735 25,625  37,855 5,020  630 2,740  400 1,615  230 1,120  1,660 17,830  910 1,480  750 16,350  590 40  667,545  454,335  31,350  14,500  16,855  162,620  23,655  138,965  19,240  Owned Rented  422,780 244,765  7,410 383,545 70,970 : 23,940  3,135 11,365  4,280 12,575  14,795 147,830  8,925 14,730  5,865 133,100  17,035 2,205  URBAN  521,010  329,930  26,015  12,160  13,855  158,150  21,905  136,250  6,910  Owned Rented  311,190 209,820  285,460 44,475  5,640 20,375  2,695 9,465  2,945 10,910  13,810 144,345  8,245 13,660  5,560 130,685  6,280 630  146,540  124,405  5,330  2,335  3,000  4,470  1,750  2,715  12,330  111,590 134,945  98,085 26,320  1,770 3,565  435 1,905  1,330 1,660  980 3,485  680 1,075  305 2,415  10,755 1,575  A R E A  METRO VANCOUVER Owned Rented METRO VICTORIA Owned Rented BRITISH COLUMBIA  RURAL Owned Rented  Source:  1971 Canada Census,  93-727, Tables  4,5.6  104  of a l l urban and 84.9 percent of a l l r u r a l d w e l l i n g s .  These  changes have o c c u r r e d as a r e s u l t o f the growth i n the cons t r u c t i o n and p o p u l a r i t y of s i n g l e attached, apartment and mobile home u n i t s throughout  the P r o v i n c e  (see t a b l e s 3 4 and 35).  The number of s i n g l e - a t t a c h e d d w e l l i n g u n i t s w i t h i n t h e P r o v i n c e rose 60 percent 1961  and 1971.  from 19,577 t o 31,350 u n i t s between  These u n i t s a r e predominantly  numbers have i n c r e a s e d throughout  urban and t h e i r  the P r o v i n c e .  In 1971, they  represented 4.7 percent of t h e B r i t i s h Columbia housing  stock,  up from 4.3 percent i n 1961. The  s i g n i f i c a n c e o f apartment d w e l l i n g u n i t s t o t h e B r i t i s h  Columbia housing  stock and housing market i n c r e a s e d markedly  between 1961 and 1971.  The number o f apartments i n c r e a s e d 58  percent, from 68,632 i n 1961 t o 162,620 i n 1971.  In 1961,  apartments r e p r e s e n t e d o n l y 14.9 percent of t h e P r o v i n c i a l housing  stock; but by 1971 they had become 24.4 percent of the  housing  stock f o r B r i t i s h Columbia.  urban phenomenon as almost l o c a t e d i n urban areas. of t h e urban housing housing  Apartment u n i t s a r e an  91 percent of a l l apartments were  Apartments represented  3 0.4 percent  stock, but o n l y 3.1 percent o f t h e r u r a l  stock i n 1971 (see t a b l e s 34 and 35).  Apartment u n i t s share of the housing urban areas of t h e P r o v i n c e . accounted  In P r i n c e Rupert,  f o r 37.4 percent o f the housing  Vancouver they represented  stock has grown i n most i n 1971, they  stock, i n M e t r o p o l i t a n  33.0 percent; both up over 10 percent  from t h e i r share o f the housing  stock i n 1961.  The number o f mobile homes has a l s o r i s e n d r a m a t i c a l l y .  105  TABLE 34 HOUSING STOCK, 1961 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY STRUCTURAL TYPE  SINGLE DETACHED %  AREA  SINGLE ATTACHED %  APARTMENT OR FLAT %  MOBILE HOMES %  HOUSING STOCK 1961  DAWSON CREEK  82.1  6.5  KAMLOOPS  74.2  7.6  17.3  2,665  KELOWNA  80.4  5.0  14.6  4,138  NANAIMO  85.3  3.5  11.2  4,212  PENTICTON  89.8  8.4  4,059  PORT ALBERNI  74.7  4.5  19.9  3,225  PRINCE GEORGE  72.4  8.6  17.3  3,359  PRINCE RUPERT  67.2  8.5  23.9  3,099  T R A I L  73.5  4.0  22.5  3,355  VERNON  78.8  6.8  14.2  3,005  METRO VANCOUVER  75.1  3.9  20.8  2.2  228,596  METRO VICTORIA  75.3  4.9  19.6  0.2  47,485  BRITISH COLUMBIA  80.0  4.3  14.9  0.8  459,532  U R B AN  75.7  4.4  19.5  0.4  341,559  RURAL  92.4  3.8  1.7  2.1  117,973  Source:  8.6  1961 Census of Canada 93-523, Tables 5, 7, 8.  2,763  TABLE 35 HOUSING STOCK 1971 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY STRUCTURAL TYPE  SINGLE DETACHED  AREA  SINGLE ATTACHED  APARTMENT OR FLAT  MOBILE HOME  TOTAL  DAWSON CREEK  78.4  8.5  10.9  2.2  100  KAMLOOPS  58.6  8.9  29.9  2.7  100  KELOWNA  68.2  7.0  24.5  0.3  100  NANAIMO  72.3  4.6  22.9  0.2  100  PENTICTON  76.5  3.7  15.4  4.4  100  PORT ALBERNI  73.7  5.3  20.0  1.0  100  PRINCE GEORGE  57.8  13.0  27.6  1.6  100  PRINCE RUPERT  54.5  '5.4  37.4  2.7  100  T R A I L  72.4  2.8  24.5  .3  100  VERNON  69.3  6.7  22.2  1.8  100  METRO VANCOUVER  62.6  3.8  33.0  0.6  100  METRO VICTORIA  64.6  5.1  29.4  0.9  100  B.C. URBAN RURAL  68.0 63.3 84.9  4.7 5.0 3.6  24.4  2.9  100 100 100  Source:  30.4 3.1  1.3 8.4  1971 Census of Canada, 93- 727, Vol. I I ,Part 3, B u l l e t i n 2.3-2, June 1973, Tables 5, 6.  107  Between 1961 and 1971 the number o f mobile  homes i n B r i t i s h  Columbia i n c r e a s e d 426 percent from 3,660 t o 19,240.  In 1971,  they represented 2.9 percent o f the P r o v i n c i a l housing up from 0.8 percent i n 1961. homes are predominantly  U n l i k e apartment u n i t s ,  rural,  areas where they represented  stock, mobile  64 percent l o c a t e d w i t h i n r u r a l  8.4 percent o f the housing  stock  i n 1971.G e n e r a l l y , there appears t o be a t r e n d away from s i n g l e detached  d w e l l i n g s towards apartments.  This t r a n s i t i o n  be a slow one because of the l a r g e number o f e x i s t i n g detached  will  single-  u n i t s , but c o n s t r u c t i o n o f apartments, condominiums  and row housing  should reduce the s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d u n i t s domin-  ance o f the housing market i n urban areas. Tenure Tenure i s an occupancy c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f the housing The occupancy s t a t u s o f the housing three broad c a t e g o r i e s : vacant u n i t s .  stock.  industry i s c l a s s i f i e d i n  owner-occupied, r e n t e r occupied and  There i s a h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between the l e v e l  of owner-occupancy and the p r o p o r t i o n o f s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g u n i t s i n the housing  stock.  Accompanying the t r e n d away from s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i s a s h i f t i n tenure p a t t e r n s w i t h i n the housing 1961  stock.  and 1971 the p r o p o r t i o n o f owner-occupied u n i t s f e l l  percent from 71.0 percent t o 63.3 percent.  8.7  As a r e s u l t , r e n t e r -  occupied u n i t s represented 36.7 percent o f the P r o v i n c i a l stock i n 1971 (see t a b l e 36).  Between  housing  Of the c i t i e s examined, P r i n c e  Rupert had the h i g h e s t p r o p o r t i o n o f r e n t e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s  TABLE 3 6  OCCUPIED DWELLINGS —  1961 OWNED RENTED  AREA  TENURE IN PERCENTAGE  1966 OWNED RENTED  1971 OWNED RENTED  CHANGE 1961-1971 % RENTED  DAWSON CREEK  65. 1  34.9  63.9  36.1  65.2  34.8  -0.1  KAMLOOPS  64. 2  35.8  53.6  46.4  56.7  43.3  +7.5  KELOWNA  72.5  27.5  64.8  35.2  64.0  36.0  +8.5  NANAIMO  76. 9  23.1.  68.0  32.0  64.6  35.4  +12.3  PENTICTON  71.0  29.0  71.5  28.5  71.5  28.5  -0.5  PORT ALBERNI  68. 7  31.3  66.2  33.8  67.9  32.1  +0.8  PRINCE GEORGE  68.2  31.8  57.9  42.1  53.9  46.1  +14.3  PRINCE RUPERT  58. 7  41.3  56.1  43.9  52.6  47.4  +6.1  T R A I L  65. 8  34.2  66.2  33.8  66.5  33.5  -0.7  VERNON  66. 7  33.3  64.8  35.2  64.5  35.5  +2.2  METRO VANCOUVER  69. 7  30.3  63.0  37.0  58.8  41.2  +10.9  METRO VICTORIA  71.4  28.6  66.5  23.5  61.4  38.6  +10.0  BRITISH COLUMBIA  71. 0  29.0  65.0  35.0  63.3  36.7  +8.7  Source:  1971 Census of Canada, Housing, 93-727, Vol. I I , Part 3, B u l l e t i n 2.3-2, June 1973, Tables 2, 3.  109  in  1971,  46.1 in  i . e . 47.4  percent  of the  Kamloops and  general,  percent.  the  I n 1971,  housing  41.2  and  units  to the  high  Urban areas the urban  more r a p i d l y  growing  stock.  s t o c k was the  Provincial  tenure  detached 84.4  of  o n l y 23.6  throughout  in  (see t a b l e  years.  41.3  of  o t h e r hand,  of the  rural  compared t o o n l y  are  housing  63.3  percent  37).  strong correlation  percent  between  stock  structural  (see t a b l e  were owner-occupied.  rented units  owner-occupancy of  Between  tan  the  units,  type  37).  Single-attached dwellings are predominantly  predominantly  28).  dwelling units,  a l l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i n 1971  renter-occupied.  of  on  percent  housing  within  Single-  dwellings are the preserve of the owner-occupier  are predominantly of  a  7 6.1  i n 1971,  patterns i n the  percent  owned. as  i s also  stock  as  In  construction i n recent  Rural dwelling units,  owner o c c u p i e d  There and  of apartment  self-owned  percent  communities  have a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f r e n t a l  predominantly  for  levels  43.3  i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver.  t h e P r o v i n c e have a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of r e n t a l due  represented  stock i n P r i n c e George,  percent  larger  rental  the  Vancouver rental  Mobile  housing  and  1971,  they  of  units  cities and  exhibited  units,  88.5  on  the  percent  t h e number o f  increased only  were  self-  rental  units  Apartment or  structures,  t h e P r o v i n c e i n c r e a s e d 83.4  owner-occupied Of  a l l types  owner-occupied,  1961  as  the  90.9  as  flat  lowest  rate  percent  o t h e r hand,  i n 1971  units  are  (see t a b l e  37).  renter-occupied dwellings  percent, while the 29.7  percent  (see  number table  examined, P r i n c e George, Kamloops, M e t r o p o l i -  Kelowna experienced  accommodation as  the  highest rate  of  growth  renter-occupied dwellings increased  110  TABLE 37  TENURE PATTERNS BY STRUCTURAL TYPE 1971 PERCENTAGE OWNED  TOTAL STOCK  SINGLE DETACHED  APARTMENT OR FLAT  MOBILE  DAWSON CREEK  65.2  77.8  9.3  10.1  92.8  KAMLOOPS  56.8  82.9  17.4  13.6  97.5  KELOWNA  63.1  86.1  24.7  13.4  75.0  NANAIMO  64.7  84.0  21.3  12.2  50.0  PENTICTON  71.0  84.6  30.2  8.8  96.2  PORT ALBERNI  67.9  86.0  16 .7  13.1  90.9  PRINCE GEORGE  53.9  83.1  12.0  15.6  88.9  PRINCE RUPERT  52.7  78.8  12.8  17.4  91.7  T R A I L  66.4  85.3  15.0  15.4  50.0  VERNON  64.4  84.6  19.6  13.0  86.7  METRO VANCOUVER  58.8  87.5  25.1  7.7  93.5  METRO VICTORIA  61.4  88.3  18.7  8.5  93.7  BRITISH COLUMBIA  63.3  8 4 . 4  23.6  9.1  88.5  URBAN  59.7  86.5  21.7  8.7  90.9  RURAL  76.1  78.8  33.2  21.9'  87.2  A R E A  Source:  SINGLE ATTACHED  1971 Census o f Canada 93-727,  Table  4,5,6.  Ill  272.6 percent,  239.8 percent,  r e s p e c t i v e l y between 1961 T r a i l and  and  105.8  percent  1971.  Dawson Creek experienced  and  14.0  percent  respectively  both c i t i e s . ( s e e t a b l e Kamloops and  the lowest r a t e of growth  36).  i n self-owned u n i t s between 1961  Province,  4.0^percent  because of the low growth o f  P r i n c e George experienced  cent r e s p e c t i v e l y .  percent  During the same p e r i o d  i n r e n t a l stock as r e n t a l u n i t s i n c r e a s e d only and  102.5  But  and  1971:  the l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e s 148.0  and  as with most other c i t i e s  103.2  per-  throughout  the  the growth i n r e n t a l u n i t s f a r outpaced the growth  i n self-owned u n i t s , (see t a b l e  28).  I f the t r e n d toward apartment and m u l t i p l e u n i t c o n s t r u c t i o n continues, Province  the p r o p o r t i o n of owner-occupied units-: w i t h i n  should  landlord-tenant continue  continue  to f a l l .  c o n f l i c t s and  the  However, i f r e n t c o n t r o l s ,  r e s u l t i n g investor uncertainty  and m u l t i p l e u n i t c o n s t r u c t i o n i s s h i f t e d towards con-  dominium c o n s t r u c t i o n , then the t r e n d towards more r e n t a l accommodation may  be  reversed.  Vacancy i s a l s o an occupancy c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , but as e a s i l y measured.  Vacancy r a t e s are only recorded  i t i s not for rental  accommodation i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver and V i c t o r i a by C.M.H.C. (see t a b l e 2).  Vacancy r a t e s i n June 1974  l e v e l s of only a f r a c t i o n o f a p e r c e n t : couver and  0.5  percent  almost non-existent. facilitate  in Victoria. No  frictional  were at r e c o r d  10.3  percent  low  i n Van-  Vacant apartment u n i t s were vacancy was  normal housing market o p e r a t i o n s  and  to move e a s i l y between u n i t s w i t h i n the market.-  a v a i l a b l e to a l l o w households  112  The number of newly completed and unoccupied as r e p o r t e d by CMHC, i s another  dwellings,  i n d i c a t o r of vacancy r a t e s  and the l e v e l of market supply of d w e l l i n g u n i t s w i t h i n the housing markets of M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver and V i c t o r i a table  (see  38).  W i t h i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver the number of newly completed and unoccupied  s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and duplex u n i t s has been  s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g s i n c e 1971.  During  f i e d as unoccupied  a l e v e l of 1,653  October 1974.  u n i t s reached  the t r e n d  As a r e s u l t , the market supply of  and duplex d w e l l i n g s has  increased.  of newly completed and unoccupied Vancouver has a l s o i n c r e a s e d . unoccupied.  1974,  row  intensi-  units in single-detached  In r e c e n t y e a r s , the number and apartment u n i t s i n  In October 1974,  774  u n i t s were  These u n i t s were mostly unsold condominium u n i t s  and d i d not r e p r e s e n t vacant  r e n t a l apartment u n i t s .  p r e s e n t l y an i n c r e a s e d market supply of new  and  owner-occupier u n i t s i n the Vancouver market.  There i s  unoccupied There i s , however,  an almost n e g l i g i b l e supply of r e n t a l accommodation w i t h i n Vancouver as vacancy r a t e s f o r r e n t a l apartment u n i t s are at r e c o r d low l e v e l s and most newly c o n s t r u c t e d m u l t i p l e - d w e l l i n g u n i t s are o f f e r e d f o r s a l e i n the self-owned housing  s e c t o r of the  market.  In M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a , the housing market has  shown an  i n c r e a s e i n the market supply of s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and duplex u n i t s i n 1974  over 1973,  as the number of newly completed and  unoccupied  houses and duplexes rose from 5 i n the t h i r d q u a r t e r of 1973 90 i n October 1974. unoccupied  But the number of newly c o n s t r u c t e d  d w e l l i n g s i n 1974  was  to  and  below the number experienced  in  T A B L E 38  NEWLY COMPLETED AND UNOCCUPIED DWELLINGS QUARTERLY, BY URBAN AREA  1971 - 74  VANCOUVER HOUSES AND DUPLEXES  1971 (1) (2) (3) (4)  352 230 269 355  1972 (1) (2) (3) (4)  317 266 425 551  1973 (1) (2) (3) (4)  491 396 434 404  1974 Oct.  Source:  1,653  301  VICTORIA  ROW AND APARTMENTS  662 964 1,074 659  839  435 611 470 390  431  4  % 1  354 606 491 285  434  774  Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s , R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i s t , CMHC.  HOUSES AND DUPLEXES  93 101 132 167  173 256 317 424  44 20 11 5  90  123  292  20  ROW AND APARTMENTS  184 103 481 459  407 476 360 465  136 215 298 138  19  1973, CMHC, T a b l e 20,  306  427  196  114  1971  and 1972.  The  l e v e l of newly c o n s t r u c t e d and  apartment and row u n i t s f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y i n 1974 of  the 47 percent decrease  unoccupied as a r e s u l t  i n the number of m u l t i p l e - d w e l l i n g 84  unit starts i n Metropolitan V i c t o r i a . r a t e s , however, are a t low l e v e l s , 0.5  Apartment vacancy percent i n June  1974,  i n d i c a t i n g a l a c k of supply of r e n t a l accommodation. Values and  Rents  D i s t r i b u t i o n s of housing  i n v e n t o r y by r e n t and v a l u e are  u s e f u l p r i m a r i l y i n p r o v i d i n g an understanding composition was  and c h a r a c t e r .  obtained from the 1971 Between 1961  and  1971  of i t s q u a l i t a t i v e  Information on r e n t s and  values  Census of Canada. the median v a l u e of s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d  owner-occupied non-farm d w e l l i n g s r o s e from $11,744 t o $23,502, g i v i n g B r i t i s h Columbia the dubious honor of having the second h i g h e s t d w e l l i n g u n i t v a l u e s i n Canada.  Ontario dwellings  had  the h i g h e s t median v a l u e a t $23,768 and the N a t i o n a l median average was  $19,020.  Over the same p e r i o d average monthly cash  85 rents  i n B r i t i s h Columbia r o s e from $65 t o $119  f o r tenant  occupied non-farm d w e l l i n g s ; g i v i n g B r i t i s h Columbia the second h i g h e s t p r o v i n c i a l average cash r e n t l e v e l s  (see f i g u r e 1).  W i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia, the h i g h e s t d w e l l i n g u n i t  values  were found w i t h i n the major m e t r o p o l i t a n areas, Vancouver Victoria.  P r i n c e George was  not f a r behind.  and  In g e n e r a l , the  84  Housing Statl&ticA: B. C. Raglon, September 1974, page 1.  C.M.H.C., Vancouver,  85  CASH RENT - the d o l l a r amount r e q u i r e d t o secure occupancy but not the ownership of a d w e l l i n g . GROSS RENT - the t o t a l amount p a i d out by a tenant to secure and maintain a d w e l l i n g a l o n g w i t h i t s household f a c i l i t i e s . Included are the cash r e n t and such o t h e r payments as water, e l e c t r i c i t y , gas or f u e l , which were not i n c l u d e d i n the cash rent.  115  v a l u e s of urban d w e l l i n g s were h i g h e r than those of t h e i r r u r a l counterparts. areas, experienced 1961  and  1971  Dawson Creek and T r a i l , both slow growing the s m a l l e s t i n c r e a s e s i n v a l u e s between  of a l l the areas examined  (see t a b l e 39).  As w i t h the value of s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d  owner-occupied  farm d w e l l i n g s , the l e v e l of average cash r e n t s f o r  tenant-  occupied non-farm d w e l l i n g s v a r i e d w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e t a b l e 39). areas.  non-  (see  Rent l e v e l s were h i g h e r i n urban areas than r u r a l  P r i n c e George and M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver had  the  h i g h e s t average monthly cash r e n t s of the c i t i e s examined. Since 1971  t h e r e has been a dramatic  r i s e i n the v a l u e of  86 self-owned accommodation.  However, between 1961  i n c r e a s e s i n r e n t l e v e l s lagged behind  and  1971,  the i n c r e a s e s i n v a l u e  of self-owned accommodation. There has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been a strong r e l a t i o n s h i p between r e n t l e v e l s and the market supply o f r e n t a l accommodation as r e f l e c t e d i n vacancy r a t e s . of low market supply and  Rents tend t o i n c r e a s e d u r i n g times  low vacancy w h i l e  p e r i o d s of r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r vacancy. evident throughout the P r o v i n c e . housing fell,  stabilizing  during  T h i s p a t t e r n has been  Before r e n t c o n t r o l , r e n t a l  i n Vancouver f o l l o w e d an economic c y c l e .  Vacancy r a t e s  r e n t s r o s e , b u i l d e r s undertook apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n ,  o v e r - s u p p l i e s were c r e a t e d , r e n t s s t a b i l i z e d , vacancy r a t e s r o s e , etc.  In Vancouver, a 4.4  to 0.8 86  percent  i n 1969  p e r c e n t vacancy r a t e i n 1964  as a shortage  declined  o f r e n t a l u n i t s developed.  For a complete d i s c u s s i o n of the r i s e i n house p r i c e s , see Chapter I I of t h i s t h e s i s , an overview of c o n d i t i o n s i n the B r i t i s h Columbia housing market.  116  FIGURE 2 Median Value for Single Detached Owner-occupied Non-farm Dwellings, for Canada and Provinces.1961 and 1971  $  1971  1 9 6 1  2 5 , 0 0 0  —i  2 5 , 0 0 0  2 0 , 0 0 0  2 0 , 0 0 0  1 5 , 0 0 0  1 5 , 0 0 0  1 0 , 0 0 0  If  5 , 0 0 0  I  1  i  CANADA j  P  NFLO.  E  I  j N.S.  N.B.  j Q  U  E  1 0 . 0 0 0  — \  5 , 0 0 0  l b  ONT. -  — \  SASK.  MAN.  j  B  ALTA.  C  CANADA j  j  Yuk.'& N . W . T .  P  E  I  -  NFLO.  j N.S.  N  B  -  j  ONT.  QUE.  j  SASK. j  MAN.  »—  A ^ A .  | Yuk. & N . W . T .  Average Monthly Cash Rant for Tenant-occupied Non-farm Dwellings, for Canada and Provinces, 1961 and 1971  I NFLD,  Source:  MAN.  ALTA.  Yuk.  & N.W.T.  NFLD.  1971 Census o f Canada 93-732, page 1.  MAN.  ALTA.  i Yuk. & N . W . T .  TABLE 39 VALUES AND RENTS 1961 and 1971  SINGLE DETACHED OWNER OCCUPIED . NON-FARM DWELLINGS C I T Y  ,  MEDIAN VALUE  TENANT OCCUPIED NON-FARM DWELLINGS AVERAGE AVERAGE MONTHLY MONTHLY CASH RENT GROSS RENT  2 1971  19 61  $10,084  $13,064  KAMLOOPS  12,771  KELOWNA  L  4  1971*  19 61  $70  $100  $84  $115  20,748  70  124  85  137  11,433  21,674  61  120  76  134  10,357  15,414  57  102  74  116  PENTICTON  10,627  18,591  64  106  80  120  PORT ALBERNI  10,539  18,971  52  100  67  116  PRINCE GEORGE  11,916  23,625  81  134  98  131  PRINCE RUPERT  10,035  18,191  65  120  86  141  T R A I L  10,141  14,664  44  82  57  94  VERNON  10,280  20,208  53  102  68  117  METRO VANCOUVER  13,932  26,702  75  130  86  140  METRO VICTORIA  11,656  25,007  65  119  77  130  B.C. URBAN RURAL  11,744 12,651  23,502 24,327  65 70  119 124  78 83  132 135 95  1961  DAWSON CREEK  NANAIMO  ......  1  '8,344  19,606  40  3  85  56  3  1971  1961 Census of Canada, 93-528, Tables 60, 62, 63. 1971 Census of Canada, 93-732, Tables 34, 36, 37. 1961 Census of Canada, 93-528, Tables 70, 72, 73. 1971 Census of Canada, 93-732, Tables 44, 46, 47.  118  TABLE 40 METRO VANCOUVER - RENTAL MARKET  YEAR  COMPLETIONS (1) NO. OF UNITS APT. ROW  VACANCY RATES JUNE  (2)  DEC.  NO. OF CONDOMINIUM (3) REGISTRATIONS  1967  5814  137  1.1%  -  -  1968  8189  255  1.3  -  102  1969  8574...  370  1.2  0.8  632  1970  8594  595  2.7  2.1  954  1971  8757  1013  4.1  2.8  2,031  1972  5868  725  2.9  0.6  2,221  1973  5579  1479  1.0  0.4  3,732  Source:  (1) Canadian  Housing.  t a b l e s 9, 10.  S t a t i s t i c s , 1973, C.M.H.C,  (2) hpatitmznt Vacancy Suhvzy, Mztno Vancouver, C.M.H.C, Vancouver, June 1974, t a b l e 1. (3) Real Ei>tatz 1 fiends in HztA.opolit.an Vancouver 1974-7 5, Real E s t a t e Board o f G r e a t e r Vancouver, page B-6.  119  B u i l d e r s s t a r t e d c o n s t r u c t i o n again  i n 1968.  Completions o f  r e n t a l u n i t s jumped from about 6,000 a year t o 9,000 a year for Metropolitan  Vancouver.  A f t e r f o u r years o f h i g h  the vacancy r a t e was back up t o 3.9 percent t a b l e 40).  construction  i n June o f 1971 (see  Apartment completions reached t h e i r h i g h e s t  level i n  1971  and have s i n c e f a l l e n s h a r p l y .  Vacancy r a t e s have r i s e n  but,  s i n c e 1973, r e n t i n c r e a s e s have been l i m i t e d through r e n t  c o n t r o l l e g i s l a t i o n which l i m i t e d r e n t s i n 197.4 t o only increases.  8 percent  As o f January 1975 r e n t s may i n c r e a s e a t a maximum  annual r a t e o f 10.6 percent.  With r e n t s c o n t r o l l e d by govern-  ment l e g i s l a t i o n the market p r i c e a l l o c a t i o n mechanism has not been allowed t o f u n c t i o n .  Rents can not i n c r e a s e t o a t t r a c t i v e .  l e v e l s t h a t would encourage new c o n s t r u c t i o n .  The c o n s t r u c t i o n  of r e n t a l u n i t s has f a l l e n markedly and the extremely low vacancy r a t e s have continued, modation.  c o n t r i b u t i n g t o a shortage o f r e n t a l accom-'  Apartment and row u n i t d w e l l i n g s  have been  constructed 87  but mostly f o r s a l e i n the self-owned condominium market. Housing C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Housing c o n d i t i o n s have been improving w i t h i n B r i t i s h In l i g h t o f the c r i e s o f "housing c r i s i s " from many s e c t o r s of the p o p u l a t i o n ,  Columbia.  t h a t have been heard  such a f i n d i n g would seem t o  be a c o n t r a d i c t i o n , i f not an i m p o s s i b i l i t y . 87  The i n c r e a s e i n condominium r e g i s t r a t i o n s i s noted i n t a b l e 40 and a l s o i n Chapter I I o f t h i s t h e s i s . Condominiums and apartments are very s i m i l a r i n design - tenure i s the only d i f f e r e n c e ; as a r e s u l t b u i l d e r s can e a s i l y s w i t c h t h e i r product from the r e n t a l t o the s e l f - o w n e r s h i p s e c t o r o f the market, thereby a v o i d i n g r e n t c o n t r o l .  120  B r i t i s h Columbians were b e t t e r housed i n 1971 were i n 1961.  than  Dwelling u n i t s throughout the Province  they in  1971  were g e n e r a l l y l a r g e r , as the average number of rooms per d w e l l i n g i n c r e a s e d from 4.9 Rural d w e l l i n g s  between 1961  and  1971.  showed the g r e a t e s t improvement i n s i z e  they i n c r e a s e d from 4.7 decade  to 5.2  to 5.2  rooms per d w e l l i n g over the  (see t a b l e 41).  Corresponding  to the i n c r e a s e d s i z e of d w e l l i n g u n i t s  throughout the P r o v i n c e ,  as i n d i c a t e d by the i n c r e a s e i n the  average number of rooms per d w e l l i n g , there has been an i n the average number of bedrooms per d w e l l i n g . s m a l l i n c r e a s e , from 2.4  t o 2.5  Although a  smaller f a m i l i e s , i t  i n d i c a t e s a degree of improved q u a l i t y i n the housing Again r u r a l housing  increase  bedrooms per d w e l l i n g , i n  l i g h t of d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e s and  housing.  as  stock.  showed a g r e a t e r improvement than urban  Rural housing  had a higher average number of bedrooms.  Higher incomes, a number of s o c i a l f a c t o r s , and high  levels  of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n have c o n t r i b u t e d to the growth i n the number of households w i t h i n a given p o p u l a t i o n . holds are s m a l l e r now  House-  than they have been i n the p a s t .  British 88  Columbia has  s m a l l e r households than a l l other  provinces.  In 1971,  the average number of persons per household i n the  Province  stood at 3.2,  88  down from 3.4  i n 1961.  In g e n e r a l , urban  The average B r i t i s h Columbia household i n 1971 c o n s i s t e d of 3.2 persons, compared to the n a t i o n a l average of 3.5 persons per household (see t a b l e 19).  TABLE 41 BRITISH COLUMBIA HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS 1961, 1971  C I T Y  AVERAGE NUMBER OF ROOMS/DWELLING 1961  1  1971  2  AVERAGE •NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 1961  1  19 71  AVG. NO. OF ROOMS/PERSON 2  1961  1  1971  2  AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS/HOUSEHOLD 1961  3  19 71  3  DAWSON CREEK KAMLOOPS KELOWNA NANAIMO PENTICTON . PORT ALBERNI PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE RUPERT TRAIL VERNON METRO VANCOUVER . .METRO VICTORIA  4.7 5,0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0  5.2 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2  2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3  2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4  . 83 .70 .64 .64 .67 .74 .82 .80 .72 .68 .66 .62  .69 .63 .54 .57 .55 .64 . .67 .70 .57 .57 .58 .•54  3.9 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1  3.6 3.3* 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9  BRITISH COLUMBIA  4.9  5.2  2.4  2.5  .70  .61  3.4  3.2  URBAN RURAL  5.0 4.7  5.2 5.2  2.4 •2.4  2.4 2.6  .67 .79  .59 .68  3.3 3.6  3.1 3.5  Sources:  % OF HOUSEHOLDS TOO OR MORE FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 1961  5  10 59 59 70 71 90 82 85 49 48 6374 742  1971  NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 1961"  A  1971  4  WITH TWO FAMILIES OR MORE 1961  1971  35 120 80 55 60 90 50 30 45 45 5875 745  2763 3165 2665 7495 4138 6415 4212 5040 4059 5875 3225 5690 3359 8630 3100 4300 3353 3565 3007 4185 228 598 396,215 47,485 66,505  0.4 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.'7 1.5 1.6 2.8 1.6  1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.1  10,617  10,400  459,554 668,300  2.3  1.6  8,432 2,185  8,115 2,285  341,557 521,660 117,977 146,645  2.5 1.9  1.6 1.6  ;  1  1961, Census of Canada, 93 -524,  Tables 20 , 22, 23, 25, 27 , 28, 30, 32, 33.  2  1971, Census of Canada, 93 -729,  Tables 9, 11, 12; 93-729, Tables 14, 16, 17; 93-730, Tables 20, 21, 22.  3  1971, Census of Canada, 93 -702,  Table 12; 1961 , Census  A  1971, Census of Canada, 93 -703,  Tables 9, 10, 11.  5  1 9 61.; Census of Canada, 93 -511,  Tables 8, 10, 11.  of Canada, 93-510, Table 2.  to I—  1  TABLE 42 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS ~ BRITISH COLUMBIA 1961, 1966, 1971  A R E A  DAWSON CREEK KAMLOOPS KELOWNA NANAIMO PENTICTON PORT ALBERNI PRINCE GEORGE PRINCE RUPERT T R A I L VERNON METRO VANCOUVER METRO VICTORIA B.C.  Source:  1971 Census of Canada, 93-702, Vol. II, Part 1, Bulletin 21-2, May 1973, Table 1 , 5 ; 1966 Census of Canada, 93-603, Table 12, April 1968.  123  households have been s m a l l e r than r u r a l households.  Of the  c i t i e s surveyed, Kelowna, Nanaimo and M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a had the s m a l l e s t households, 2.9 persons  (see t a b l e 41).  As a r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s e s i n the s i z e o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s and r e d u c t i o n s i n average household s i z e , there has been a marked r e d u c t i o n i n crowding  (the average number of persons  per room) w i t h i n the housing s t o c k .  As a r e s u l t , t h e r e has  been an improvement i n housing q u a l i t y w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e . Over the decade  19 61 t o 1971, the average number of persons  per room i n d w e l l i n g u n i t s f e l l  from 0.7 0 t o 0.61.  housing i s s t i l l more crowded than urban housing.  Rural R u r a l housing  i n 1971 had a h i g h e r average number of persons per room, 0.68, than urban housing had i n 1961, 0.67.  Of the c i t i e s  surveyed,  Kelowna and M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a had the lowest average number of persons per room, the l e a s t crowded c o n d i t i o n s  (see t a b l e 41).  Crowding o r overcrowding o f housing i s an i n d i c a t o r o f the adequacy  and q u a l i t y of the housing s t o c k .  crowding o f housing has been reduced.  In B r i t i s h  Columbia,  The number o f two or more  f a m i l y households w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e has dropped t o 10,400 i n 1971,  from 10,617 i n 19 61.  Over the decade, P r o v i n c i a l popu-  l a t i o n grew 34.1 percent w h i l e the number o f households grew a t an even h i g h e r r a t e , 45.4 p e r c e n t .  In r e l a t i o n t o t h i s  the drop i n the number of two or more f a m i l y households a dramatic improvement i n the adequacy 1971,  growth, indicates  o f the housing s t o c k .  In  1.6 p e r c e n t o f a l l households w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e c o n s i s t e d  of two or more f a m i l i e s , as compared t o 2.3 p e r c e n t i n 1961. Over the decade, urban housing experienced the g r e a t e s t r e d u c t i o n  in  c r o w d i n g as t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f households  families The British 1961  dropped quality  the past.  2.5  t o 1.6  adequacy  has  improvement  indicate  that  two  or  more  percent.  of the housing stock throughout  been m a r k e d l y  Dwellings are  The  decade would meeting  and  Columbia  t o 1971.  from  with  larger  improved and  less  over the  decade,  crowded  than i n  i n the housing stock over the housing industry  the housing needs of the  Province.  has  the been  125  CONCLUSION Canada i s amongst the best housed n a t i o n s i n the world, both i n terms of q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y o f housing. standards of many c o u n t r i e s we are f o r t u n a t e . though we  By the  However, even  are w e l l housed, c r i e s of "housing c r i s i s "  and  "housing shortage" have been heard w i t h i n Canada and  the  P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia  i n recent years.  To many, a housing c r i s i s  i s a shortage of housing  units.  89 Economic shortages, as d e f i n e d by Pennance and Gray,  are  r e l a t i v e to some l e v e l of c o s t s and p r i c e s and r e f e r t o s i t u a t i o n s of market imbalance where e f f e c t i v e demand exceeds s u p p l i e s forthcoming a t the p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e .  I t has been  t h i s economic shortage t h a t has been of concern i n t h i s examin a t i o n of the housing stock and housing supply process i n B r i t i s h Columbia. and we  I f i t e x i s t s , demand i s g r e a t e r than supply,  are e x p e r i e n c i n g a "housing  crisis".  Housing Demand Over the p e r i o d 1961  to 1974  B r i t i s h Columbia  experienced  h i g h l e v e l s of housing demand promoted by h i g h l e v e l s o f popul a t i o n growth, income growth and a number of  governmental  incentives. (I)  P o p u l a t i o n Growth B r i t i s h Columbia  1961 89  and 1971,  experienced r a p i d p o p u l a t i o n growth between  as p o p u l a t i o n grew 34.1  percent from 1,629,082 t o  Pennance, F., Gray, H., "Housing Shortage: F a c t or F i c t i o n " , Building, The B u i l d e r s L i m i t e d , London, March 17, 1967, page 104.  2,184,621 (see t a b l e 14).  By 1973,  p o p u l a t i o n had  grown to  90 approximately  2,315,000.  Much of B r i t i s h Columbia's high r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n growth can be a t t r i b u t e d to the high l e v e l s by the P r o v i n c e .  Between 1965  and  of m i g r a t i o n  1970  experienced  net m i g r a t i o n  repre9  sented 7 4.6  percent of the p o p u l a t i o n growth f o r the  M i g r a t i o n has a dramatic  effect  Province.  upon the demand f o r housing  w i t h i n the Province as migrants i n c r e a s e the number of househ o l d s , both f a m i l y and non-family, immediately  upon a r r i v a l .  and  Coupled w i t h the a r r i v a l of the  babies onto the housing market, these to r e c o r d high l e v e l s (2)  r e q u i r e accommodation  of housing  war  f a c t o r s have c o n t r i b u t e d  demand.  Income Growth Income l e v e l s  have r i s e n  dramatically in B r i t i s h  Columbia  i n recent y e a r s , as i l l u s t r a t e d by the r i s e i n average weekly wages and 1961  salaries  f o r B r i t i s h Columbia from $85.20 per week i n  to $178.22 i n 1973  (see t a b l e 21).  R i s i n g incomes  economic s t a b i l i t y have a l s o c o n t r i b u t e d to high l e v e l s demand f o r housing The  and of  accommodation.  long run t r e n d of movement of p o p u l a t i o n to urban  areas from r u r a l  areas, i n search of j o b s , has meant t h a t the  younger migrants to the c i t i e s have to f i n d accommodation of t h e i r own  at an e a r l i e r age than i f they had remained a t home  i n r u r a l areas. Other f a c t o r s i n c r e a s i n g the demand f o r 90 Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1 9 7 3, C.M.H.C, Ottawa, March 1974, page 91. 91  Forecast  ofi Population  Giowth  In  British  Columbia  to  the  yean 2000, Government o f B r i t i s h Columbia, Dept. of Indust r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a , 1971, page  127  housing  have been the  decline  i n the  average  and  a g r e a t e r i n c i d e n c e o f t h e young and  and  being  (3)  able to afford  own  the  self-owned further  influenced  marrying  elderly  desiring  accommodation.  as  economy. the  gains  been the  by  A  a good 1971  taxation,  self-owned  of  especially  the  to  growth,  ial  accommodation.  and  the  housing  further  34.1  decade  housing  British  or  evaluation of  capital for  governmental  the  to  percent  1971  from  the housing  459,532 u n i t s  same p e r i o d .  s t o c k i n any  approximately has  for  supply  factors  residentprocess  i n mind.  one  34.4  year  New  in British  i n 1961  Historically, are  percent  rarely  over  record levels Columbia  stock of  British to  p o p u l a t i o n growth  e x p e r i e n c e d much l a r g e r  i n recent years.  were e x p e r i e n c e d  housing  made w i t h t h e s e  far outpacing Provincial  Columbia  o f demand  incentives  Supply  1961  percent during the  percent,  stock  The  Housing  g r e w 45.3  i n 1971,  the  laws, p r o v i d i n g  i n c r e a s e t h e demand  income growth,and  s t o c k m u s t be  Columbia  Over t h e  units  inflationary  r e s i d e n c e from  have combined t o c r e a t e r e c o r d h i g h l e v e l s  Columbia  been  incentives.  i n an  Income Tax  of one's p r i n c i p a l served  secure  accommodation.  Population  British  to  b e e n i n g r e a t demand b e c a u s e i t  investment,  has  of people  a number o f g o v e r n m e n t a l  revision  exempting  desire  Consumer p r e f e r e n c e s have  accommodation has  viewed  for  i t has  accommodation.  Self-owned  to  for  Governmental I n c e n t i v e s Traditionally  is  their  age  667,546 of  additions  greater than  a ten year period. increases i n  housing  of dwelling starts  i n each  3  of  the  years  128  1964,  1967,  1968,  1969,  1971,  1972  and 1973.  Residential  con-  s t r u c t i o n s t a r t s were a t r e c o r d l e v e l s u n t i l the downturn i n the world and P r o v i n c i a l economies i n 1974  reduced the  level  of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y . Between 1961 Columbia 45.4 3.4  grew 45.3  and 1971  the stock of housing i n B r i t i s h  p e r c e n t , the number of households i n c r e a s e d  p e r c e n t , and the average household s i z e d e c l i n e d t o 3.2  persons per household.  from  The P r o v i n c e has experienced  high l e v e l s of p o p u l a t i o n growth, but household  formation and  housing c o n s t r u c t i o n has, u n t i l r e c e n t downturns i n the economy, outpaced p o p u l a t i o n growth.  The r e c o r d of the housing i n d u s t r y  has been a good one. Housing c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e tremendously  improved  over the decade 1961-1971, as recorded by the  Census of Canada.  1971  The average d w e l l i n g u n i t i n the P r o v i n c e  i n c r e a s e d i n s i z e from 4.9  t o 5.2  rooms.  The number of  two  f a m i l y households w i t h i n rthe Province has a l s o decreased.  Over  the p e r i o d 1961-1971 the housing supply process f u n c t i o n e d well  (see t a b l e 41). Housing c o n s t r u c t i o n was  s t a r t s i n 1971,  1972  and 1973  at record l e v e l s f o r dwelling (see t a b l e 1).  l e v e l of housing c o n s t r u c t i o n f e l l  In 1974,  the  i n response to the downturn  and t i g h t e n i n g of the world and P r o v i n c i a l economies.  In l i g h t  of the improving c o n d i t i o n s of the P r o v i n c i a l housing s t o c k , i t would appear t h a t , i n aggregate, the housing supply p r o c e s s , u n t i l r e c e n t economic downturns, has been f u n c t i o n i n g adequately  and  has been keeping pace w i t h p o p u l a t i o n growth and housing demand throughout the P r o v i n c e .  129  C o n s t r u c t i o n A c t i v i t y by S t r u c t u r a l Type Dwelling  u n i t c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a r t s have been a t r e c o r d  l e v e l s w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n recent y e a r s .  Contributing  to these h i g h l e v e l s o f house c o n s t r u c t i o n have been l a r g e i n c r e a s e s i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d units?„ The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d  dwelling  u n i t s more than  doubled between 1966 and 1973 as the l e v e l o f s t a r t s rose 9,664 i n 1966 t o 21,313 u n i t s i n 1973 (see t a b l e 1 ) . construction of single-detached  from  The  u n i t s i n c r e a s e d i n number i n  each s u c c e s s i v e year from 1968 t o 1973.  I f there i s a shortage  o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s i t has not been caused by a shortage o f cons t r u c t i o n of s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d  units.  In f a c t , r e c e n t  increases  i n the number o f newly completed and unoccupied d w e l l i n g u n i t s and the long time p e r i o d r e q u i r e d t o s e l l e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g u n i t s , o f f e r e d i n the market, would i n d i c a t e t h a t an of s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d The  u n i t s e x i s t s w i t h i n the Province  oversupply (see t a b l e 38).  c o n s t r u c t i o n o f semi-detached d w e l l i n g u n i t s has a l s o  been a t r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l s w i t h i n r e c e n t y e a r s .  The con-  s t r u c t i o n o f semi-detached d w e l l i n g u n i t s has i n c r e a s e d low  l e v e l s i n t h e e a r l y 19 60's.  from  Semi-detached u n i t s t a r t s  jumped t o 1,126 u n i t s i n 1968 from 826 u n i t s i n 1967.  Semi-  detached u n i t s t a r t s remained a t o r near the 120 0 u n i t l e v e l u n t i l 1972, when the l e v e l o f s t a r t s d e c l i n e d s l i g h t l y t o 818 i n 1972 and then rose again t o 901 i n 1973. With the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f the S t r a t a T i t l e s A c t , the cons t r u c t i o n o f row housing i n c r e a s e d from 562 u n i t s t a r t s i n 1968 t o 1,325 u n i t s i n 1969.  The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f row housing  130  i n c r e a s e d i n each year from 1970 2,362 row 1973  In 1972  a record  housing u n i t s were s t a r t e d w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e .  the number of row  to 1,501  to 1972.  housing u n i t r . s t a r t s d e c l i n e d  In  slightly  u n i t s , but remained f a r above c o n s t r u c t i o n l e v e l s of  the e a r l y 1960's  (see t a b l e 1).  Apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia reached i t s peak i n 1969  as 16,084 apartment u n i t s were s t a r t e d , r e p r e s e n t i n g  50.5  of a l l c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a r t s w i t h i n the  percent  during the year.  Since  apartment u n i t s has down 13.5 percent The  percent  19 69, however, the c o n s t r u c t i o n of  fallen.  In 1973,  from the 1969  apartment s t a r t s were  l e v e l to only 13,912 u n i t s ,  36.9  of a l l d w e l l i n g s t a r t s i n 1973, (see t a b l e 1). drop i n apartment s t a r t s has been even more pronounced  i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. from 11,945 i n 1969, i n 1973,  Province  40 percent  67.5  Apartment s t a r t s f e l l percent  37  percent  of a l l s t a r t s , to only  7,281  of t o t a l s t a r t s w i t h i n the M e t r o p o l i t a n  area  92 during the The  year.  drop i n apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n , both i n terms of number  of u n i t s and  as a p r o p o r t i o n of a l l housing s t a r t s ,  from the above f i g u r e s . market supply of new  The  i s evident  r e d u c t i o n i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y  or  r e n t a l accommodation i s , however, even  more pronounced than c o n s t r u c t i o n f i g u r e s would i n d i c a t e , as a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the apartment and m u l t i p l e - d w e l l i n g u n i t s t h a t have r e c e n t l y been c o n s t r u c t e d  have not been f o r the r e n t a l  s e c t i o n of the market but f o r condominium ownership.  92  Canadian  Housing  Statistics,  C.M.H.C, Ottawa 1974,  Table_12.  131  Condominium u n i t s are i n c l u d e d w i t h r e n t a l u n i t s i n construction statistics  f o r row housing and apartment s t a r t s .  a r e s u l t , the number o f r e n t a l u n i t s t a r t s i s o v e r s t a t e d .  As When  condominium u n i t s t a r t s are i s o l a t e d through an examination o f condominium r e g i s t r a t i o n s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, the a f f e c t of condominium s t a r t s on the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f newly c o n s t r u c t e d r e n t a l accommodation can be seen.  Between 196 8 and 1973 con-  dominum c o n s t r u c t i o n i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, as a percentage of t o t a l housing 21.5  s t a r t s , i n c r e a s e d from 0.7 percent i n 19 68 t o  p e r c e n t i n 1973.  During the same p e r i o d the number o f row  and apartment u n i t s , t r a d i t i o n a l l y r e n t a l , as a percentage of all  s t a r t s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, f e l l  from 64.0 p e r c e n t i n  1968 and 71.0 p e r c e n t i n 1970 t o 47.5 percent i n 1973 (see t a b l e 4).  The number o f self-owned  condominium u n i t s t a r t s has  i n c r e a s e d , while the number o f row and apartment u n i t has decreased.  starts  As a r e s u l t , the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e n t a l u n i t s  has f a l l e n because the condominiums' share o f a l l apartment and row u n i t s t a r t s , i n each year, has increased., (see t a b l e 40). The r e d u c t i o n s i n r e n t a l apartment s t a r t s i n r e c e n t y e a r s , coupled w i t h the extremely privately  low vacancy  i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l apartments  r a t e s experienced i n (0.2 p e r c e n t i n M e t r o p o l i -  tan Vancouver i n June 1974) (see t a b l e 2) , would i n d i c a t e t h a t the r e n t a l s e c t o r o f the B r i t i s h Columbia housing market i s the only sectorr.of the housing market s u f f e r i n g from a shortage o f supply. Vacancy r e p r e s e n t s a market supply o f r e n t a l u n i t s t h a t i s immediately  a v a i l a b l e f o r occupancy.  Vacancy r e p r e s e n t s s l a c k  132  i n housing supply which can absorb random s h i f t s i n demand. i s f e l t t h a t some f r i c t i o n a l vacancy  It  i s r e q u i r e d i n the housing  market at a l l times t o a l l o w households  t o change l o c a t i o n s or 93  upgrade t h e i r housing without g r e a t d i f f i c u l t y . To many, the low vacancy  r a t e s experienced w i t h i n the  m e t r o p o l i t a n areas of B r i t i s h Columbia  are too low and, as a  r e s u l t , r e p r e s e n t a shortage of r e n t a l u n i t s .  To o t h e r s , vacant  u n i t s seem to be s o c i a l l y w a s t e f u l as the c r e a t i o n of housing u n i t s i s an expensive p r o c e s s . and vacancy,  Nonetheless, the c o n s t r u c t i o n  and hence a v a i l a b i l i t y , of r e n t a l apartment u n i t s  has been reduced w i t h i n r e c e n t y e a r s . o n l y s e c t o r of the B r i t i s h Columbia  The r e n t a l s e c t o r i s the  housing market t h a t  appears  to be s u f f e r i n g a shortage of supply. Causes of the The  Shortage  shortage o f r e n t a l apartment u n i t s w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e  can be a t t r i b u t e d t o a number of causes: (1)  C i t i z e n Opposition  (2)  Changes i n Income Tax  (3)  Rent C o n t r o l  (4)  Condominium C o n s t r u c t i o n  Legislation  (1) C i t i z e n O p p o s i t i o n The c o n s t r u c t i o n of apartments groups w i t h i n the P r o v i n c e .  i s opposed by many c i t i z e n ' s  They obg.ect t o the h i g h e r d e n s i t i e s  a s s o c i a t e d with apartment developments and the changes t h a t they 93  Smith, W. F. , Housing: The Social and Economic U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , Berkeley, 1970,  Elements, page 175.  133  f e e l apartment p r o j e c t s impose upon t h e c h a r a c t e r o f a n e i g h bourhood . Opposition  t o apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n has r e s u l t e d i n the  down-zoning o f many areas w i t h i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. has  This  r e s t r i c t e d t h e q u a n t i t i e s o f land a v a i l a b l e f o r apartment  c o n s t r u c t i o n and the lower d e n s i t i e s have reduced t h e p o t e n t i a l number o f apartments t h a t c o u l d be b u i l t w i t h i n p r o p e r l y  zoned  areas. (2)  Income Tax L e g i s l a t i o n P r i o r t o the 1969 F e d e r a l White Paper on T a x a t i o n , tax  w r i t e - o f f s against personal  income were p r o v i d e d  investors i n r e s i d e n t i a l property.  for private  T h i s p r o v i s i o n o f the Income  Tax A c t prompted t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f many s m a l l s p e c u l a t i v e wood frame apartments by p r i v a t e i n v e s t o r s from the ranks o f upper middle income p r o f e s s i o n a l s and those i n managerial with h i g h income l e v e l s .  occupations  T h e i r investment i n r e n t a l p r o p e r t y  was o f t e n l e s s concerned w i t h t h e c u r r e n t income generated by the apartment than w i t h t h e t a x s h e l t e r than an investment i n an apartment  provided.  In 1970, L. B. Smith, i n a review o f the White Paper's p r o p o s a l s , p o i n t e d out t h a t the p r o p o s a l s  t o tax, i n f u l l , the  gains on the s a l e o f r e n t a l r e a l e s t a t e , t o e l i m i n a t e t h e o f f set o f r e a l e s t a t e l o s s e s a g a i n s t other income, and t o c r e a t e a separate  d e p r e c i a t i o n category  f o r each b u i l d i n g over $50,000,  would i n i t i a l l y depress r e n t a l r e a l e s t a t e values and u l t i m a t e l y 94 reduce t h e stock o f r e n t a l r e a l e s t a t e . 94  Smith, L. B. " E f f e c t s o f t h e White Paper on Demand f o r and P r i c e o f Real E s t a t e " , RzpoH.t 1970 ConAeJiznce., Canadian Tax Foundation, 1970, pages 376-382.  134  With the e l i m i n a t i o n of the tax w r i t e - o f f p r o v i s i o n , a f t e r the 1969  White Paper on T a x a t i o n ,  the c o n s t r u c t i o n of  s p e c u l a t i v e wood frame apartments was the market supply In 1974,  g r e a t l y reduced, as  apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n and  speculative  the low vacancy r a t e s throughout  Country, the tax w r i t e - o f f p r o v i s i o n was  (3)  was  of r e n t a l apartment u n i t s .  as a r e s u l t of the reduced l e v e l of  attempt t o again  small  the  r e i n s t a t e d i n an  s t i m u l a t e apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n .  Rent C o n t r o l Rent c o n t r o l was  under The  imposed w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n  1974  R e s i d e n t i a l Premises I n t e r i m Rent S t a b i l i z a t i o n  Act,  which l i m i t e d r e n t i n c r e a s e s , f o r a l l r e n t a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s , to 8 percent  i n 1974.  The  r e n t c o n t r o l was  initially  imposed  only  as a temporary measure to prevent r a p i d e s c a l a t i o n s i n r e n t l e v e l s d u r i n g a time of low vacancy r a t e s .  The  objective  being,  t h a t r e n t i n c r e a s e s would be c o n t r o l l e d u n t i l s u f f i c i e n t market s u p p l i e s of r e n t a l apartment u n i t s c o u l d be generated, so as stabilize prices.  to  However, r e n t c o n t r o l , of whatever form,  o u t r i g h t f r e e z e s or l i m i t e d e s c a l a t i o n s , d i s c o u r a g e s the cons t r u c t i o n of p r i v a t e l y i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l u n i t s , as f e a r reduced or c o n t r o l l e d investment r e t u r n .  investors  Rent c o n t r o l  d i s c o u r a g e s c o n s t r u c t i o n , the very t h i n g t h a t i s needed to reduce the pressure  f o r increased rent l e v e l s .  Rent c o n t r o l  promotes f u r t h e r shortages of p r i v a t e l y i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l accommodation as new i s eliminated.  investments and  c o n s t r u c t i o n of apartments  Rent c o n t r o l helps t o perpetuate a shortage o f  r e n t a l housing. When demand f o r r e n t a l accommodation i n c r e a s e s and  con-  135  sumers a r e w i l l i n g t o pay more than b e f o r e , r e n t c o n t r o l does not a l l o w t h e market p r i c e (rent) t o r i s e t o i t s f u l l and perform i t s p r i c e r a t i o n i n g f u n c t i o n .  extent  As a r e s u l t o f t h e  r e s t r i c t e d r e n t l e v e l s , c o n d i t i o n s of excess demand f o r r e n t a l accommodation and, hence, a housing shortage w i l l be c r e a t e d , as consumers demand more r e n t a l u n i t s than s u p p l i e r s are w i l l i n g t o put on the market. Columbia a t the present  This i s occurring within  time.  Renters f a r outnumber l a n d l o r d s . have claimed  British  Even though l a n d l o r d s  t h a t r e n t i n c r e a s e s are r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e a  s u f f i c i e n t r e t u r n on e x i s t i n g investments and t o encourage new apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n , p o l i t i c i a n s a r e conscious of votes t h a t tenants  represent  o f t h e number  and are, t h e r e f o r e , prone t o  l i s t e n t o t h e i r p r o t e s t s over i n c r e a s i n g r e n t s .  To t h e p o l i t i -  c i a n , the l i m i t i n g o f r e n t i n c r e a s e s through r e n t c o n t r o l i s an a t t r a c t i v e and p o l i t i c a l l y convenient way t o q u i e t e n t h e p r o t e s t s of tenants  and hold housing c o s t s down t o a l e v e l the  consumer t h i n k s he can a f f o r d . in  Rent c o n t r o l appears a t t r a c t i v e  the short run but, i n t h e long r u n , t h e f u l l  control i s f e l t . market.  impact o f r e n t  I t worsens c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n t h e r e n t a l housing  I t e l i m i n a t e s the needed c o n s t r u c t i o n o f p r i v a t e l y  i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l u n i t s t h a t would, i f b u i l t , a i d i n reducing the market shortage o f r e n t a l apartment u n i t s . The  r e v i s i o n of the Landlord  Columbia, i n 1974, provided  and Tenant A c t of B r i t i s h  f o r continued  r e n t c o n t r o l through  the l i m i t i n g of r e n t i n c r e a s e s t o a maximum annual percentage as determined by the P r o v i n c i a l Cabinet.  In 1975 r e n t  increases  136  were l i m i t e d t o a maximum o f 10.6 percent. discouraged  T h i s has f u r t h e r  the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f p r i v a t e l y i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l  accommodation and has f u r t h e r e d the market shortage o f r e n t a l accommodation. Even i f new c o n s t r u c t i o n was exempt from r e n t c o n t r o l , i n attempts t o s t i m u l a t e new apartment c o n s t r u c t i o n , no new cons t r u c t i o n would be i n i t i a t e d , as i n v e s t o r s would f e a r t h a t r e n t c o n t r o l s c o u l d be extended, a t any time, t o cover t h e i r property  and r e s t r i c t t h e i r r e n t l e v e l s and r e n t  increases.  Rent c o n t r o l i s a t t r a c t i v e t o those tenants a l r e a d y i n possession  o f r e n t a l u n i t s , f o r they r e c e i v e t h e b e n e f i t o f  r e n t s lower than would otherwise e x i s t i n a f r e e market. not r e n t i n g accommodation b u t s e a r c h i n g  Those  for rental units, w i l l  f i n d themselves l i t e r a l l y o u t i n the c o l d .  With r e n t a l con-  s t r u c t i o n h a l t e d by i n v e s t o r s ' f e a r o f r e n t c o n t r o l , those searching  f o r r e n t a l accommodation w i l l f i n d few vacant  ment u n i t s i n the market.  apart-  Rent c o n t r o l has c o n t r o l l e d r e n t  l e v e l s but a t the c o s t o f continued  low vacancy l e v e l s .  There  w i l l be no new c o n s t r u c t i o n o f p r i v a t e l y - i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l a p a r t ments and no vacant apartments u n t i l r e n t c o n t r o l i s removed. How long w i l l i t be u n t i l t h e Government and t h e p u b l i c r e a l i z e t h a t r e n t c o n t r o l o n l y makes matters worse? (4)  Condominium  Construction  Condominium u n i t s a r e almost i d e n t i c a l t o apartment u n i t s . As a r e s u l t , c o n s t r u c t i o n f i r m s can e a s i l y switch  from t h e con-  s t r u c t i o n o f r e n t a l apartments t o condominium d w e l l i n g u n i t s . In many cases,  t h e end products o f apartment and condominium  137  c o n s t r u c t i o n are i d e n t i c a l i n a l l r e s p e c t s but t h e i r form of tenure.  The  increased  demand f o r self-owned accommodation  prompted by r i s i n g incomes; the tax f r e e c a p i t a l  gains  p o t e n t i a l of self-owned accommodation; the enactment of S t r a t a T i t l e s Act; and  the  lowering  of r e t u r n s  i n p r i v a t e l y - i n i t i a t e d r e n t a l apartments, due i n c r e a s e s , even before  on  the  investments  to s l u g g i s h r e n t  r e n t c o n t r o l , have a l l combined to  promote a dramatic r i s e i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of condominium u n i t s . This r i s e has  corresponded to a r e d u c t i o n  of r e n t a l apartment u n i t s i n a marked r e d u c t i o n The  conversion  i n the  (see t a b l e s 4 and  construction  5) and  i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y of new  has  resulted  rental units.  of e x i s t i n g r e n t a l apartment u n i t s to  self-owned condominium u n i t s , under the S t r a t a T i t l e s A c t , also contributed to a reduction housing u n i t s .  i n the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e n t a l  Conversions were promoted i n recent years  the bouyant market f o r self-owned accommodation.and the r e t u r n s r e c e i v e d from apartment investment. more per month t o buy unit.  a u n i t than they w i l l pay  to higher  sluggish pay  t o r e n t the same  owning i s b e t t e r than r e n t i n g , even though i t may towards owning has  by  Consumers w i l l  T h i s market dichotomy stems from the p e r c e p t i o n  This preference  has  that  c o s t more.  caused consumer r e s i s t a n c e  r e n t s i n r e n t a l apartments.  T h i s has  contributed  to  making investment i n r e n t a l apartments u n a t t r a c t i v e , w h i l e ,  at  the same time, making investment i n r e a d i l y marketable condominium u n i t s a t t r a c t i v e . C i t i z e n o p p o s i t i o n , changes i n income tax landlord-tenant  c o n f l i c t s , low  r e n t s , and  legislation,  r e n t c o n t r o l have a l l  c o n t r i b u t e d t o making the c o n s t r u c t i o n of  privately-initiated  r e n t a l apartment u n i t s an u n a t t r a c t i v e investment.  As a r e s u l t  the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f r e n t a l apartment u n i t s , w i t h i n the has  f a l l e n w i t h i n r e c e n t years and  t h i s has  Province  contributed to  the  shortage of r e n t a l accommodation t h a t p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s . A s i d e from the r e n t a l s e c t o r of the housing market,  the  housing supply p r o c e s s appears t o have been f u n c t i o n i n g w e l l over the p e r i o d s  1961  t o 1971  and  1971  to 1973.  The  aggregate  l e v e l o f d w e l l i n g u n i t c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a r t s , w i t h i n the has  been a t r e c o r d l e v e l s w i t h i n r e c e n t years  Construction  a c t i v i t y d e c l i n e d i n 1974,  Province  (see t a b l e 1).  however, not as  r e s u l t o f a breakdown i n the housing supply  a  p r o c e s s but as a  r e s u l t o f the t i g h t e n i n g of the P r o v i n c i a l , N a t i o n a l and economies.  Periods  growth o c c u r r e d 1969-1970.  of r e c e s s i o n and downturns i n economic  d u r i n g the years 1957-1958, 1960-1961,  and  In each p e r i o d the l e v e l of c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a r t s  f e l l only temporarily a c t i v i t y recovered.  and, The  i n each case, housing  construction  housing c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y i s  a f f e c t e d by the swings i n the economy.  The  d e c l i n e s i n housing  c o n s t r u c t i o n experienced w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1974 1975  World  and  are a r e s u l t o f the t i g h t e n i n g o f the P r o v i n c i a l economy.  With an upturn i n the P r o v i n c i a l economy, the l e v e l o f t i o n a c t i v i t y and  the housing supply  s i t u a t i o n should  construcimprove.  The housing i n d u s t r y i s not immune t o the economic f l u c t u a t i o n s t h a t a f f e c t a l l other The  s e c t o r s o f the economy.  Future I t has been s a i d t h a t , "The  adequacy of the housing market  139  i s judged by i t s a b i l i t y t o respond to the demands made on i t , t h a t i s , by the degree  to which i t i s able to p r o v i d e i n d i v i d -  u a l s and f a m i l i e s w i t h the type of housing they seek, a t a c o s t 95 they can a f f o r d to pay".  However, i f the demands being made  are u n r e a l i s t i c , i s t h i s a t r u e t e s t o f the market's adequacy? S e l f ownership households  has always been beyond the reach of many  and i n d i v i d u a l s .  Low  income f a m i l i e s and f a m i l i e s  f i x e d incomes cannot, or w i l l not, be able to a f f o r d but t h i s i s a problem  of income d i s t r i b u t i o n .  The  housing,  housing  market should not be judged as inadequate when i n d i v i d u a l s f a m i l i e s are unable to a f f o r d The ownership  on  and  housing.  of a s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g u n i t  has  h i s t o r i c a l l y been, and continues to be, the a s p i r a t i o n of the m a j o r i t y of Canadians.  However, the days of the  single-  detached d w e l l i n g , as the dominant form of housing i n Canadian urban a r e a s , are numbered.  With the i n c r e a s i n g c o s t of con-  s t r u c t i o n , the r e s t r i c t e d supply of l a n d , and the h i g h c o s t of l a n d , a s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d u n i t has become too expensive to be c o n s i d e r e d the type of house f o r every Canadian  household.  In order to p r o v i d e an adequate supply of housing accommod a t i o n w i t h i n B r i t i s h Columbia, of housing we  desire.  we must r e - e v a l u a t e the standard  We must change our c o n c e p t i o n of the  i d e a l housing s t r u c t u r e ; the s i n g l e detached d w e l l i n g i s no longer p r a c t i c a b l e f o r a l l .  We must accept more modest housing.  We must a l s o encourage housing development. 95  Working  Vapzfti, :  Volume.  Task Force on Housing page 1.  I,  (b)  Over the p a s t  "Housing Supply", A d v i s o r y  P o l i c y , P r o v i n c e of O n t a r i o , June  1973,  FIGURE 3  tj  j]'  It's stillpossible,even aroundMetro Toronto, New houses don't need to cost as much as they do. You probably agree. Chances are, though, you don't know what can be done to bring the cost down to where more people can afford them. The problem is that government regulations force developers to build "Buick-type" housing, but most people don't have that kind of income. So there's no way they can afford them. With different bylaws, developers could build quality homes that people on smaller incomes could easily afford. How could we do it? For a start, lot sizes could be reduced. A t today's land prices, 50to 60-foot-wide lots cost too much. Not long ago. people happily bought homes on lots hall" that size. They could again, and they'd save a lot of money. But first, the bylaws would have to be changed. Then there's the cost of servicing. Today's subdivisions require 'wide,"paved streets and sidewalks, underground phone and hydro wiring, and huge sewers capable of handling storm conditions that'll happen once in a blue moon—if ever. That's expensive. But not long ago, people happily bought new homes with the minimum of necessary services, and then later on—when they could better afford ii —paid through their municipal taxes to have them upgraded. That way. the .whole cost wasn't lumped onto the purchase price of the homes. They could again, but first the bylaws would have to be changed.  requirements. Does everybody need three bedrooms, or 2V-> bathrooms, or a garage? They're nice, but they cost a lot of extra money. If people want houses they can afford, they should be asking their municipal governments to stop forcing developers to build houses that are bigger than they can afford. Put them all together, and you've got yourself a fine new home for S40.000, even around Metropolitan Toronto—or in oth*r areas for a good deal less. There are a lot of other ways housing costs could be lowered: speed up the installation of trunk sewer and water services to put more serviceable land on the market and stabilize lot prices; cut government red tape to speed the planning process: stop municipalities from charging exhorbitant levies on new development, which just add to house prices; don't let selfish ratepayers' groups stop badly needed new housing in the name of "controlling growth" and "protecting neighborhoods", which causes shortages and pushes up the price of the older resale homes that should be an important source of cheaper housing. It could be done. Today. And a lot of people who've given up hope of ever owning their own homes could be back in the ballgame tomorrow. But first, the regulations have got to be changed. That, means the  Then there's the house itself. Without sacrificing quality, costs could be cut sharply by lowering the  anti-development municipal councils will have to stop paying lip-service to the need for housing. They'll have to stop "studying" everything to death and start doing something. They'll have to stop playing games with development and enacting more and more restrictive legislation, which only pushes costs higher. It means those politicians who advocate so-called "non-profit" housing will have to be honest with the public about the real cost. The "low" prjee comes from costs being borne by government departments, and from government grants. It'snot"low cost" housing at all — it's more expensive than private housing. But the price is subsidized through your tuxes. The plain truth is that because private devefopers are competitive, they are more efficient. So they can build for the same cost as "nonprofit" organizations and still make a reasonable profit. The proof of that is world-wide. Our governments—at all levels —are going to have to accept the fact that the only realistic way to keep prices down, is to do everything they can to make it easier for the private development industry to build genuinely cheaper homes. The Urban Development Institute includes Ontario's major builders and managers of for sale and rental homes. We want to be able to provide you with a place to live. At a price you can reasonably afford. A n d we can do it. We could be building $40,000 (or cheaper.) homes right now. T h e trouble is, the government rules won't let us.  The Urban Development Institute Suite 601,15 Gervais Drive, D o n Mills,Ontario  Source:  The. Tononto  Stan,  Wednesday, A p r i l  3 0 , 197 5, p a g e A 6 .  141  decade many m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h i n the Province have i n c r e a s e d the standard of s e r v i c e s and amenities t h a t must be p r o v i d e d by any developer of r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t y . have added t o the c o s t of accommodation. p r i c e d housing we may  have to accept lower  These  standards  I f we want lower standards.  Many m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , prompted by t h e i r concern over high c o s t of p r o v i d i n g s e r v i c e s , have a l s o adopted p h i l o s o p h i e s and have discouraged new  "no  the  growth"  r e s i d e n t i a l development.  These measures have served to p r o t e c t the i n t e r e s t s of those a l r e a d y i n p o s s e s s i o n of accommodation and make the p r o v i s i o n of an adequate supply of housing t h a t much more d i f f i c u l t . I t appears  t h a t t h e r e are c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s surround-  ing the p r o v i s i o n of housing u n i t s .  The d e s i r e t o b u i l d more  housing u n i t s t o i n c r e a s e the housing supply i s l i m i t e d by standards t h a t must be met  and the o p p o s i t i o n to new  the  development  and h i g h e r d e n s i t i e s . • What i s needed i s a commitment to encourage development. The  s e n i o r l e v e l s of government might p r o v i d e the  funds  to l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s f o r needed i n f a s t r u c t u r e i n order to overcome m u n i c i p a l i t i e s o b j e c t i o n s and thereby s t i m u l a t e development. Rent c o n t r o l should be e l i m i n a t e d to again a l l o w the market p r i c e a l l o c a t i o n mechanism t o r a t i o n the supply of r e n t a l accommodation and encourage p r i v a t e investment r e n t a l apartment u n i t s , i n order t o e l i m i n a t e the  in  shortage  of r e n t a l accommodation. The  s e n i o r l e v e l s of government should a l s o p r o v i d e  142  a s s i s t a n c e i n the form of e i t h e r income s u b s i d i e s or p u b l i c housing to help i n s u r e proper housing f o r the e l d e r l y and on l i m i t e d or f i x e d incomes who  those  would otherwise be unable to  a f f o r d adequate housing. The housing supply process has been f u n c t i o n i n g w e l l i n the r e c e n t p a s t , but there i s always room f o r improvement. measures were adopted  to s t i m u l a t e development r a t h e r than  discourage i t , much c o u l d be done to e l i m i n a t e the of  If  f u t u r e housing supply shortages w i t h i n B r i t i s h  possibility Columbia.  143  BIBLIOGRAPHY Armitage, A., Audain, M. , Housing Requirements: A Review of Recent Canadian Research, The Canadian C o u n c i l on S o c i a l Development, May, 1972. Barlowe, R., Land Resource Economics: The Economics of Real Property, 2nd e d i t i o n , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , Inc., Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., 1972. B e r r i d g e , J . D., The Housing Market and Urban Residential Structure, Centre f o r Urban and Community S t u d i e s , Research Paper No. 51, U n i v e r s i t y of Toronto, December, 1971. Beveridge, I. L., The Land development Process as i t Affects the Supply of New Housing Within the Greater Vancouver Regional District', I .CO. Real E s t a t e Management L t d . , Report f o r the Real E s t a t e Board of Greater Vancouver, May, 1974. Blank, D. M., "The S t r u c t u r e of the Housing Market", Journal of Economics, 1953, pages 181-208. Canada: Family, Household and Housing Pro j ections 2000, Systems Research Group, Toronto, 1971. C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n , S t a t i s t i c s , C.M.H.C., 1972 and 1973.  Quarterly  to the  Canadian  Vear  Housing  Chamberlain, S. B., Aspects of Developer Behavior in the Land Development Process, Research Paper No. 56, Centre f o r Urban and Community S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y of Toronto, August, 1972. Chung, J . , "L'analyse de l a demande de logements p r o p r i e t a i r e s , 1'experience Canadienne", A c t u a l i t e economique, June, 1967. C l a y t o n , T. A., "Income Taxes and S u b s i d i e s to Homeowners and Renters: A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Experience", Canadian Tax Journal, V o l . 22, No. 3, May-June, 1974, pages 295-305. DeLeeuw, F., Ekanen, N. F., The Supply of Urban Urban I n s t i t u t e , Washington, D. C , 1971.  Housing,  The  DeLeeuw, F., Ekanen, N. F., Time Lags in the Rental Housing Market, The Urban I n s t i t u t e , Washington, D.C., June, 1970. Dennis, M., F i s h , S., P r e s s , 1972.  Programs  in Search  of a Policy,  Hakkert  144  Donnison, D. V., The Government London, England, 1967.  oHousing,  Penguin  Books L t d . ,  Enzer, S., Some Prospects ^or Residential Housing by 1985, I n s t i t u t e f o r the Future Inc., Middleton, C o n n e c t i c u t , Report R-13, January, 1971. T.H.A. Techniques oj Housing Market Analysis, Department o f Housing and Urban Development, Washington, D.C., August, 1970. Foote, N. N., e t a l , Housing Choices H i l l Book Co., L t d . , N.Y., 1960.  and Constraints,  McGraw-  forecast o I Population Growth in B r i t i s h Columbia to the Yeah. 2 000, Government o f B.C., Department o f I n d u s t r i a l Development, Trade and Commerce, V i c t o r i a , 1971. F r e d l a n d , D. R., Residential M o b i l i t y and Home Purchase, Lexington Books, D. C. Heath & Co., Lexington, Mass., 1974. F r i e d , J . P., Housing York, 1971.  Crisis,  U.S.A., Prager P u b l i s h e r s , New  Goldberg, M. A., " R e s i d e n t i a l Developer Behavior: Some E m p i r i c a l F i n d i n g s " , Land Economics, V o l . 50, No. 1, February, 1974, pages 85-89. Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , Population Fprecast, G.V.R.D. P l a n n i n g Department, Vancouver, B.C., January, 1973. G r e a t e r Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , The Housing Issue, G.V.R.D. P l a n n i n g Department, Vancouver, B.C., May, 1973. G r e b l e r , L., M a i s e l , S. J . , "Determinants o f R e s i d e n t i a l Cons t r u c t i o n : A Review o f Present Knowlege", Impacts o{) Monetary Policy, Commission on Money and C r e d i t , P r e n t i c e - H a l l Inc., Englewood C l i f f s , N. J . , 1963. Grigsby, W. G., Housing Markets and Public Policy, of Pennsylvania P r e s s , P h i l a d e l p h i a , Penn., 1963.  University  Hamilton, S. W., " M u l t i p l e L i s t i n g Data as an I n d i c a t o r o f Real E s t a t e Market Behavior", an unpublished study, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1974. Hamilton, S. W., Public Land Banking - Real or J l l u s i o n a r y Benefits 1, Faculty, o f Commerce and Business A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, January, 1974. Hamilton, S. W., Roberts, R., Condominium Development and Owners hip, Real E s t a t e Board of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver, B.C., October, 1973. H i r s c h , W. Z., Urban New York, 1973.  Economic  Analysis,  McGraw-Hill  Book Co.,  145  Hoover, E. H., Vernon, R. , Anatomy P r e s s , New York, 1962.  'o'( a Metropolis,  Anchor  Housing Metropolitan Boston: Housing Demand and Housing Supply, .195 0-19SO, prepared by the M e t r o p o l i t a n Planning C o u n c i l , Commonwealth o f Massachusetts, V o l . 1, November, 1969. I n s t i t u t e o f Economic A f f a i r s , Verdict on Rent orant Press L t d . , Sussex, England, 1972. Is There a Case for Rent Control?, S o c i a l Development, Ottawa, 1973.  Controls,  Corm-  The Canadian C o u n c i l on  K a i s e r , E. J . , Weiss, S. F., " L o c a l P u b l i c P o l i c y and the R e s i d e n t i a l Development Process", law and Contemporary Problems, V o l . 32, S p r i n g 1967, pages 232-249. K a i s e r , E. J . , Weiss, S. F., " P u b l i c P o l i c y and the R e s i d e n t i a l Development Process", Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, V o l . 36, No. 1, 1970, pages 30-37. K i t c h e n , H., "Imputed Rent on Owner-Occupied Dwellings", dian Tax Journal, V o l . 40, No. 3, 1967.  Cana-  K r i s t o f , F. S., " F e d e r a l Housing P o l i c i e s : Subsidized Production, F i l t r a t i o n and O b j e c t i v e s : P a r t I I " , Land Economics, V o l . 49, No. 2, May, 1973, pages 163-174. K r i s t o f , F. S., "Housing P o l i c y Goals and the Turnover o f Housing", Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, Volume' 31, No. 2, August, 1965. Lansing, J . B., M u e l l e r , E., Barth, N., Residential Location and Urban Mobility, Survey Research Centre, I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Research, The U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan, June, 1964. Lee, T. H., "Housing and Permanent Income; Test Based on a Three Year Re-interview Study", Review of Economics and S t a t i s t i c s , Volume 50, November, 1968. Lee, T. H., "The Stock Demand E l a s t i c i t i e s of Non-Farm Housing", The Review of Economics and S t a t i s t i c s , V o l . 46, No. 1, February, 1964, pages 82-89. M a i s e l , S. J . , "Theory o f F l u c t u a t i o n s i n R e s i d e n t i a l Construct i o n S t a r t s " , American Economic Review, Volume 53, No. 3, June, 1963, pages 359-383. Moore, R. A., A Development Potential Model for the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, unpublished M.B.A. t h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, December, 1972. Morton, W. A., Housing Madison, 1965.  Taxation,  U n i v e r s i t y of Wisconsin  Press,  146  Muth, R. F. , C i t i e s and Ho using •• The Spatial Pattern oft Unban Residential land Use, U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago Press, Chicago, 1 9 6 9 . Muth, R. F. , "The Demand f o r Non-Farm Housing", Demand {on. durable Goods, Harberger, A., e d i t o r , U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago P r e s s , Chicago, 1 9 6 0 . Muth, R. F., "Urban R e s i d e n t i a l Land and Housing Markets", Issues in Urban Economics, P e r l o f f , H. S., Wingo, L., e d i t o r s , Johns Hopkins Press, B a l t i m o r e , 1 9 6 8 , pages 2 8 3 - 3 3 3 . Naylor, T. H., "The Impact o f F i s c a l and Monetary P o l i c y on the Housing Market", law and Contemporary Problems, Vol. 32, 1967, pages 384-396. Needleman, L., The Economics 1965.  of Housing,  S t a p l e s P r e s s , London,  Netzer, D., Economics and Urban Problems: Diagnoses c r i p t i o n s , B a s i c Books Inc., New York, 1 9 7 4 . N e v i t t , A. A., e d i t o r , The Economic Martin's P r e s s , New York, 1 9 6 7 .  Problems  and Pres-  of Housing,  St.  Obsaner, E., "Housing Demand i n Canada, 1 9 4 7 - 1 9 6 2 ; Some p r e l i m i n a r y Experimentation", Canadian Journal of Economics and P o l i t i c a l Science, V o l . 3 2 , August 1 9 6 6 , pages 302-318. Page, A. N., S e y f r i e d , W. R., e d i t o r s , Readings in Housing and Urban Development, S c o t t , Foresman and Co., G l e n v i l l e , I l l i n o i s , 1970. Pennance, F. G., Housing Market Analysis and Policy, Institute of Economic A f f a i r s , Hobart Papers, No. 4 8 , London, 1 9 6 9 . Pennance, F. G., Gray, H., "Housing Shortage: Fact or F i c t i o n ? " , Building, March 17, 1 9 6 7 , The B u i l d e r L t d . , London, pages 1 0 4 P o l l o c k , R., "Supply o f R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n : A CrossS e c t i o n Examination o f Recent Housing Market Behavior", Land Economics, V o l . 4 9 , No. 1, February, 1 9 7 3 , pages 57-66. P r i c e , E. v . , The Housebuilding Industry in Metropolitan Vancouver, unpublished M.B.A. t h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, A p r i l , 1970. R a t c l i f f , R. U., Urban 1949.  Land Economics,  McGraw-Hill, New York,  Real Estate Trends in Metropolitan Vancouver, Real E s t a t e Board o f Greater Vancouver, Vancouver, v a r i o u s y e a r s : 1 9 5 9 , 1964, 1968, 1 9 6 9 , 1 9 7 0 , 1 9 7 1 , 1 9 7 2 - 7 3 , 1 9 7 3 - 7 4 , 1 9 7 4 - 7 5 .  147  Reid, M. G., " C a p i t a l Formation i n R e s i d e n t i a l Real E s t a t e " , Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy, V o l . 66, A p r i l , 1958, pages 131153. Reid, M. G., Housing and Income., The U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago Press, Chicago, 1962. Report of the, Royal Commission P r i n t e r , Ottawa, 1966.  on Taxation,  V o l . 3, Queen s 1  Report of the. Task force, on Housing, C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n , Queen's P r i n t e r , Ottawa, 1969. S c h u l t z , L., Trends in Home Ownership Costs and Disposable Income over the Vast Decade, United Community S e r v i c e s o f t h e Greater Vancouver Area, Vancouver, November, 1973. Smith, L. B., " E f f e c t s o f the White Paper on Demand f o r and P r i c e o f Real E s t a t e " , Report 1970 Conference, Canadian Tax Foundation, 1970, pages 376-^382. Smith, L. B., Housing in Canada: Market Structure and P o l i c y Performance, Research Monograph No. 2, C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n , Ottawa, January, 1971. Smith, W. F., Aspects o§ Housing Demand, The Centre f o r Real E s t a t e and Urban Economics, I n s t i t u t e o f Urban and Regional Development, U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , Berkeley, 1966. Smith, W. F., The Growing City, The Centre f o r Real E s t a t e and Urban Economics, I n s t i t u t e o f Urban and Regional Development, U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , Berkeley, Research Report 34, i n n  Smith, W. F., Housing: The Social and Economic U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , Berkeley, 1970.  Elements,  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Households 93-702, Ottawa, May, 1973.  by Size,  1971 Census o f Canada,  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Households 93-703, Ottawa, A p r i l , 1973.  by Type,  1971 Census o f Canada,  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Household Composition, Canada, 93-704, Ottawa, February, 1973.  1971 Census o f  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Dwellings by Tenure and Structural 1971 Census o f Canada, 93-727, Ottawa, June, 1973.  Type,  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Housing: Period of Construction and Length of Occupancy, 1971 Census o f Canada, 93-731, Ottawa, November, 1 rv *7 ->  148  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Housing: Values and Rents, Canada, 93-732, Ottawa, December 1973.  1971  Census of  S t e r n l i e b , G., e t a l , Housing Development and Municipal Center f o r Urban P o l i c y Research, Rutgers U n i v e r s i t y , J e r s e y , 1973.  New  Costs,  Symonds, H., e d i t o r , The Question of Housing, Department of E x t e n s i o n and The School o f Community and Regional P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver, March, 1967. Turvey, R. , The Economics L t d . , Edinburgh, 195 7. Wheeler, M., 1969.  The Right  of Real  Vn.opeh.ty, T. A. Constable  to Housing,  Harvest House, M o n t r e a l ,  White, P., Mao, J.C.T., Ghert, B.I., " F l u c t u a t i o n s i n the Turnover o f S i n g l e Family Houses", an unpublished paper, F a c u l t y of Commerce, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1966. Wood, R., "Housing Needs and the Housing Market", Housing, Social Security and Vublic Works, Board of Governors of the F e d e r a l Reserve System, P o s t i v a r Economic S e r i e s , No. 6, June, 1946. Working Vapens •• Volume 7, A d v i s o r y Task Force on Housing Province of O n t a r i o , June, 1973.  Policy,  Young, G. A., The Municipal Subdivision Approval Vrocess in Metropolitan Vancouver, an unpublished M.Sc. t h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1974.  149  APPENDIX  TABLE 4 3 DAWSON CREEK HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  "c  S  C  S  C  U/C  19  21  16  38  29  18  —  12  57  9  32  56  7  59  4  18  27  . 9  26  43  18  81  64  35  22  21  19  —  33  57  19  U/C  S  C  U/C  16  —  —  —  18  —  —  —  —  —  —  7  9  —  18  —  —  32  10  .7  9  26  —.  18  20  1969  14  21  5  —  6  —  •4  1968  16  19  12  10  6  1967  29  32  15  2  1966  18  19  17  4  1965  33  37  19  1964  70  84  23  1963  87  101  40  YEAR  S  1973  19  21  1972  38  29  1971  12  1970  U/C  2  2 —  S = Started C = Completed U/C = Under Construction  —  --  —  18  18  —  U/C  —  18  2 —  18  —  —  —  —  18 . 4  18  90  88  43  —  —  17  4  11  120  44  —  —  —  2  32  C  2  2 2  32  S  —  6  —  —  . —  TOTAL  & OTHER  APT.  ROW  SEMI DETACHED  SINGLE DETACHED  Source:  4  Regional Economist, CMHC  TABLE 44 KAMLOOPS HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED  ROW  SEMI DETACHED S  APT. & OTHER  C  U/C  —  —  S  C  TOTAL  U/C  YEAR  S  C  U/C  S  C  U/C  1973  659  775  185  50  58  14  1972  675  650  253  42  42  1971  242  226  110  26  8  1970  183  130  97  6  14  1969  149  141  52  16  8  10  1968  133  145  40  2  16  2  1967  141  163  44  16  26  12  —  18  —  35  180  1966  155  213  60  40  46  20  18  —  18  12  130  1965  212  192  114  34  30  22  32  32  —  331  313  1964  170  158  88  36  20  18  —  241  157  154  1963  144  142  78  16  18  2  94  61  42  S  C  U/C  244  530  182  963  1363  281  22  617  527  458  1334  1219  733  18  503  173  368  771  407  496  59  43  38  249  187  135  66  44  22  234  193  84  135  161  42  192  387  56  225  389  243  . 172 .. 609  567  308  445  335  260  282  231  150  —  10  •  —  28  .  •  —  .  .  —  —  20  28  145  S = Started . 1973 _ 1972 figures for Kamloops Census agglomeration C = Completed . 1963 - 1971 figures for Kamloops City; Valleyview, Brocklehurst, Dufferin, Westside not included. U/C = Under Construction Source: Regional Economist, CMHC  TABLE 45 KELOWNA HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED YEAR  SEMI DETACHED  APT. & OTHER  ROW  U/C  U/C  U/C  U/C  TOTAL U/C  1973  993  1118  463  100 118  34  41  71  28  114  371  —  1243 1678  525  1972  917  845  576  78 122  46  111  73  101  380  268  273  1486 1308  996  1971  70  72  20  12  10  2  227  212  119  :309  294  141  1970  61  69  23  10  8  .4  4  129  70  104  205  151  131  1969  106  110  30  12  10  2  8  77  89  45  195  217  77  1968  130  187  33  2  15  120  113  57  260  315  98  1967  208  146  80  28  26  18  129  79  .50  365  301  118  1966  151  151  69  32  40  16  —  46  —  183  269  85  1965  164  ,153  76  28  46  22  18  115  —  236  314  124  1964  121  98  69  48  26  36  154  89  97  232  234  202  1963  92  96  45  30  30  11  96  62  46  239  188  123  S = Started . ' ' C = Conipleted U/C = Under Construction  26 26  26 21  21  21  1973, 1972 figures for Census agglomeration 1961 - 19 71 figures for Kelowna City. Source: Regional Economist, CMHC  TABLE 4 6 NANAIMO CITY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED  SEMI DETACHED  .  ROW  S  C  YEAR  S  C  U/C  S  C  U/C  1973  449  250  421  42  14  46  10  1972  339  343  228  22  32  18  16  1971  6  9  4  6  2  6  1970  12  14  6  5  13  2  1969  20  22  9  14  10  8  1968  24  25  11  6  2  4  1967  21  21  11  4  4  4  1966  23  35  62  4  6  1965  44  37  25  4  2  1964  29  25  18  24  24  1963  37  40  14  —  —  —  S  179  220  135  680  484  612  286  200  180  663  617  426  96  20  76  108  31  86  —  11  —  26  47  8  23  12  11  57  44  28  56  —  30  83  15  —  10  42  —  8  —  —  —  2 — .  U/C  S  —  —  •  C  U/C  C  U/C  8  TOTAL .  APT. & OTHER -  139  100  57  164  125  68  29  15  17  56  56  29  60  147  3  108  186  30  109  136  90  162  185  108  134  24  117  171  1973, 1972 figures for Census agglomeration: Nanaimo City S = Started 1963 - 1971 figures for Nanaimo City C =. Completed U/C = Under Construction Source: Regional Economist, CMHC  64 131  en  TABLE 47 PENTICTON CITY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  S  C  U/C  26  14  14  39  6  6  2  3  48  35  8  6  2  3  95  12  —  —  2  1969  134 140  48  14  14  2  1968  136 130  51  6  4  1967  104  43  46  4  2  1966  '70  94  44  1965  109 110  55  2  2  2  12  1964  111  91  60  2  2  2  44  1963  81  67  42  2  S  C  U/C  S  1973  145  86  87  1972  88  79  1971  73  1970  60  YEAR  3  —  U/C  —  3  —  —  12  —  12  —  12  S  C  U/C  294  73  130  74  C  277  465  184  378  56  227  162  97  84  68  37  11  '  U/C  S  11  63  11  71  166  25  122  75  59  283  229  121  2  46  58  12  188  192  65  3  34  14  24  142  109  74  56  52 .  5  126  150  38  4  25  87  1  148  177  62  44 . —  91  73  33  248  210  95  14  —  15  97  67  59  4  S = Started C = Completed U/C Under Construction =  C  TOTAL  APT. & OTHER  ROW  SEMI DETACHED  SINGLE DETACHED  8  2  Source:  —  Regional Economist, CMHC  TABLE 48 PORT ALBERNI HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  S  C  U/C  S  C  152  114  115  10  14  6  1972  139  143  78  10  6  10  1971  86  76  60  8  8  6  1970  65  62  51  4  4  4  1969  68  75  50  2  2  1968  81  82  58  !0  1967  39  67  71  4  1966  48  .51  38  1965  43  54  45  2  4  2  40  —  1964  51  64  56  2  4  4  —  —  1963  51  69  62  2  4  —  —  YEAR  S  1973  . U/C  23  C  23  —  S  C  18  201  132  162  66  6  153  215  94  S  C  U/C .  16  4  4  U/C  TOTAL U/C  24  —  —  4  68  94  112  134  —  --•  24  62  9  72  133  74  151  2  10  10  24  20  12  19  100  99  95  12  2  24  8  24  11  4  11  126  106  95  —  4  12  : 12  4  4  79  67  91  —  108  208  38 139  2  -2  APT. & OTHER  . ROW  SEMI DETACHED  SINGLE DETACHED  —  —  40  —  —  60  152  67  65  52  152  123  82  22  50  141  90  •110 '  3  3  53  74  69'  —  r S = Started November 1967 Port Alberni and Alberni amalgamated C = Completed Figures 1973, 1972 Census agglomeration Port Alberni U/C = Under Construction S . CMHC o u r c e  R e g i o n a l  E  C  O  N  O  M  I  S  T  >  Pre 1967 figures Port Alberni does not' i n elude Alberni figures.  TABLE 4 9 PRINCE GEORGE HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED  SEMI DETACHED  •  :  ROW  S  C  APT. & OTHER C  U/C  S  524  326  344  51  247  157  39  82  26  77  —  C  U/C  422  46  54  11  —  49  7  903  409  46  47  19  46  34  326  300  124  33  49  16  55  102  1970  195  141  110  40  24  39  77  1969  201  219  69  28  34  16  18  1968  188  202  92  64  82  * 20  1967  304  409  106  1966  402  420  203  132  114  87  1965  392  292  197  134  114  66  1964  270  185  152 '  86  72  1963  167  145  44  20  S  C  1973  1204  1190  1972  1082  1971  U/C  67  72 120  S = Started C = Completed U/C = Under Construction  18  S  U/C  S  YEAR  TOTAL U/C  1774  1614  784  146  1421  1141  625  56  496  477  235  —  316  74  219  •  4  37  4  251  308  89  98  61  37  350  345  149  55  —  376  1044  144  419.  1001  1002  709  1177  709  669  369  335  206  400  281  174  • —'  38  4  C  —  .  239  —  467  230  462  231  239  239  72  167  46  18  11  8  .—  67  —  34  29  23  6  160  93  67  :  .  1973, 1972 figures for Prince George Census agglomeration 1963 - 1971 figures for Prince George City. S o u r c e  .  R e g i o n a l  E c o n o m i s t  , CMHC  TABLE 50 PRINCE RUPERT HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED YEAR  S  C  ROW  SEMI DETACHED  U/C  S  C  U/C  s  C  :  APT. & OTHER U/C  S  C  U/C  TOTAL S  C  U/C  1973  60  61  15  32  22  15  92  83  30  1972  55  49  16  18  14  5  7'3  63  21  1971  29  18  9  10  12  2  39  30  11  1970  8  8  9  10  14  6  —  18  132  15  1969  14  . 24  9  12  12  10  70  136  36  129  1968  23  30  20  8  18  10  1967  20  15  28  —  20  1966  49  192  1965  164  61  1964  43  1963  64  —  40  —  40  40  —  70  70  — 96  —  31  182  30  38  —  —  48  10  38  ' —.  140  96  68  165  182  4  4  216  —  236  273  204  279  4  8  16  133  14  2  16  174  63  149  60  33  12  18  4  55  78  37  40  '53  14  22  10  148  156  63  27 .  70  94  --  1973, 1972 figures for Prince Rupert Census agglomeration S = Started 1963 - 1971 for Prince Rupert City. C = Completed U/C = Under Construction g . o u r c e  R e g i o n a l  E c o n o m i s t )  Q I H C  TABLE 51 TRAIL CITY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED YEAR  SEMI DETACHED  U/C  1973  1  4  1  1972  16  23  4  1971  3  6  1970  6  4  1969  4  —  1968  8  15  1967  13  14  7  1966  13  14  1965  41  1964 1963  ROW  U/C  APT. & OTHER U/C  TOTAL  U/C  U/C  1  4  1  61  68  4  3  3  6  3  6  6  4  6  4  4  —  —  8  45 • —  30  43  14  37  8  13  14  8  45  9  41  45  9  28  29  13  14  44  —  42  73  13  22  21  14  30  —  30  52  21  44  45  —  45  30 30  S - Started C - Completed U/C = Under Construction 1  9  7  1  9  3  6  j 3  1  9  _  7 1  2 9  7  —  figures f o r T r a i l Census agglomeration f 1  i  g  u  r  e  s  T  r  a  i  l  C l t y >  c  Source:  Regional Economist, CMHC  4  TABLE 52 METRO VANCOUVER HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  YEAR  . SEMI DETACHED  S  S  C  U/C  S  C  U/C  C  TOTAL  APT. & OTHER  ROW  SINGLE DETACHED  U/C  S  C  U/C  S  C  U/C  1973  8729 8171  3898  370  351  209  954  1479  1192  7281  5579  9325  17334 15580 14620  1972  7311 7077  3462  368  374  202  L635  725  1687  6896  5869  8112  16210 14044 1346:i  1971  5283 4822  2573  391  392  186  L057  1013  886  8822  8757  7043  15553 14984 10690  1970  4482 3919  2155  350  380  182  839  595  835  2766  8594  7678  13437 13488 10850  1969  4763 4927  1625  402  376  214  580  370  501  11945  8574  8864  17690 14247 1120 ,  1968  5146 6010  1801  512  468  182  311  255  339  9721  8189  5758  15690 14922 8Q8Q .  1967  5980 5097  2677  348  262  . 126  208  137  283  7360  5819  4254  13896 11315 7370  1966  4327 4608  1804  138  186  42  4299  7336  2709  . 8759 12134 4931  1965  3927 3708  2108  168  108  106  3  25  —  7586  6899  6081  11689 10240 8483  1964  4133 3581  1923  86  66  50  96  74  22  8476  5419  5968  12791  9740 7954  1963  3788 3505  1424  86  100  30  —  —  5067  4064  3269  8941  7870 4723  201  S = Started C = Completed U/c = Under C o n s t r u c t i o n  Source:  R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i s t , CMHC  TABLE;53 VERNON CITY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED U/C  S '  ,  95  159  88  1970  S  C  S  U/C  C  U/C  10  10  4  4  83  10  4  10  20  35  105  30  18  16  4  23  8  121  123  48  10  10  1969  88  56  50  14  18  1968  58  78  17  20  22  4  1967  103  96  38  8  6  6  1966  83  83  28  10  • 14',  4  —  12  —  1965  67  64  29  4  16  4  12  —  12  69  1964  69  67  26  12  2  14  —  1963  59  52  31  YEAR  S  C  19 73  236  223  1972  215  1971  •  18  6  —  .  .  Source:  U/C  440  254  —  81  40  81  326  238  174  15  51  41  40  180  170  89  8  22  63  22  166  196  78  —  104  24  84  224  116  134  4  39  4  82  139  25  43  4  39  154  106  83  —  4  —  93  113  32  9  .  13  4  152  153  49  —  25  8  76  63  48  33  —  33  98  52  75  .  S = Started C = Completed .  C  525  r  U/C = Under Construction  S  151  —  9  —  U/C  207  18 —  —  C  275  4  —  12  —  TOTAL  APT. & OTHER  ROW  SEMI DETACHED  Regional Economist, CMHC  T A B L E 54 METRO VICTORIA HOUSING CONSTRUCTION  SINGLE DETACHED  APT.  ROW  SEMI DETACHED  TOTAL  & OTHER  S  • C  U/C  •s  c  U/C  S  797  46  44  28  119  39  172  2421  2191  2212  4013 3406  3209  1232  5061  52  42  26  138  118  76  2761  1998  1998  4192 3390  2606  998  924  467  36  50  16  113  145  56  1955  1717  1228  3102 2836  1767  1970  743  .817  403  68  168  24  ;89  209  88  1659  1990  990  2559 3189  1505  1969  1009  961  497  278  220  130  226  —  226  2231  1506  1366  3744 2687  2218  1968  624  905  462  126  76  64  1366  1036  641  2516 2017  1167  1967  831  792  344  58  58  14  —  —  575  629  311  1464 1529  669  1966  714  863  306  28  44  14  :S8  • —  863  1061  415  1613 19 76  735  1965  819  874  456  40  32  30  751  1615  610  1610 2521  1096  1964  896  934  517  40  50  22  1738  877  1474  2674 1861  2013  1963  1018  885  593  30  18  30  800  715  657  1848 1666  1280  YEAR  S  1973  1427  1132  1972  1241  19 71  C  U/C  — •  —  •  8  48  —  C  U/C  S = Started C = Completed U/C = Under C o n s t r u c t i o n  Source:  R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i s t , CMHC  . S  C  U/C  

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
http://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0093238/manifest

Comment

Related Items